Evidence-based risk communication: a systematic review.

PubMed

Zipkin, Daniella A; Umscheid, Craig A; Keating, Nancy L; Allen, Elizabeth; Aung, KoKo; Beyth, Rebecca; Kaatz, Scott; Mann, Devin M; Sussman, Jeremy B; Korenstein, Deborah; Schardt, Connie; Nagi, Avishek; Sloane, Richard; Feldstein, David A

2014-08-19

Effective communication of risks and benefits to patients is critical for shared decision making. To review the comparative effectiveness of methods of communicating probabilistic information to patients that maximize their cognitive and behavioral outcomes. PubMed (1966 to March 2014) and CINAHL, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (1966 to December 2011) using several keywords and structured terms. Prospective or cross-sectional studies that recruited patients or healthy volunteers and compared any method of communicating probabilistic information with another method. Two independent reviewers extracted study characteristics and assessed risk of bias. Eighty-four articles, representing 91 unique studies, evaluated various methods of numerical and visual risk display across several risk scenarios and with diverse outcome measures. Studies showed that visual aids (icon arrays and bar graphs) improved patients' understanding and satisfaction. Presentations including absolute risk reductions were better than those including relative risk reductions for maximizing accuracy and seemed less likely than presentations with relative risk reductions to influence decisions to accept therapy. The presentation of numbers needed to treat reduced understanding. Comparative effects of presentations of frequencies (such as 1 in 5) versus event rates (percentages, such as 20%) were inconclusive. Most studies were small and highly variable in terms of setting, context, and methods of administering interventions. Visual aids and absolute risk formats can improve patients' understanding of probabilistic information, whereas numbers needed to treat can lessen their understanding. Due to study heterogeneity, the superiority of any single method for conveying probabilistic information is not established, but there are several good options to help clinicians communicate with patients. None.

Estimated cardiovascular relative risk reduction from fixed-dose combination pill (polypill) treatment in a wide range of patients with a moderate risk of cardiovascular disease.

PubMed

Lafeber, Melvin; Webster, Ruth; Visseren, Frank Lj; Bots, Michiel L; Grobbee, Diederick E; Spiering, W; Rodgers, Anthony

2016-08-01

Recent data indicate that fixed-dose combination (FDC) pills, polypills, can produce sizeable risk factor reductions. There are very few published data on the consistency of the effects of a polypill in different patient populations. It is unclear for example whether the effects of the polypill are mainly driven by the individuals with high individual risk factor levels. The aim of the present study is to examine whether baseline risk factor levels modify the effect of polypill treatment on low-density lipoprotein (LDL)-cholesterol, blood pressure (BP), calculated cardiovascular relative risk reduction and adverse events. This paper describes a post-hoc analysis of a randomised, placebo-controlled trial of a polypill (containing aspirin 75 mg, simvastatin 20 mg, lisinopril 10 mg and hydrochlorothiazide 12.5 mg) in 378 individuals without an indication for any component of the polypill, but who had an estimated five-year risk for cardiovascular disease ≥7.5%. The outcomes considered were effect modification by baseline risk factor levels on change in LDL-cholesterol, systolic BP, calculated cardiovascular relative risk reduction and adverse events. The mean LDL-cholesterol in the polypill group was 0.9 mmol/l (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.8-1.0) lower compared with the placebo group during follow-up. Those with a baseline LDL-cholesterol >3.6 mmol/l achieved a greater absolute LDL-cholesterol reduction with the polypill compared with placebo, than patients with an LDL-cholesterol ≤3.6 mmol/l (-1.1 versus -0.6 mmol/l, respectively). The mean systolic BP was 10 mm Hg (95% CI: 8-12) lower in the polypill group. In participants with a baseline systolic BP >135 mm Hg the polypill resulted in a greater absolute systolic BP reduction with the polypill compared with placebo, than participants with a systolic BP ≤ 135 mm Hg (-12 versus -7 mm Hg, respectively). Calculated from individual risk factor reductions, the mean cardiovascular relative risk reduction was 48% (95% CI: 43-52) in the polypill group. Both baseline LDL-cholesterol and estimated cardiovascular risk were significant modifiers of the estimated cardiovascular relative risk reduction caused by the polypill. Adverse events did not appear to be related to baseline risk factor levels or the estimated cardiovascular risk. This study demonstrated that the effect of a cardiovascular polypill on risk factor levels is modified by the level of these risk factors. Groups defined by baseline LDL-cholesterol or systolic BP had large differences in risk factor reductions but only moderate differences in estimated cardiovascular relative risk reduction, suggesting also that patients with mildly increased risk factor levels but an overall raised cardiovascular risk benefit from being treated with a polypill. © The European Society of Cardiology 2016.

Decision-making in an era of cancer prevention via aspirin: New Zealand needs updated guidelines and risk calculators.

PubMed

Wilson, Nick; Selak, Vanessa; Blakely, Tony; Leung, William; Clarke, Philip; Jackson, Rod; Knight, Josh; Nghiem, Nhung

2016-03-11

Based on new systematic reviews of the evidence, the US Preventive Services Task Force has drafted updated guidelines on the use of low-dose aspirin for the primary prevention of both cardiovascular disease (CVD) and cancer. The Task Force generally recommends consideration of aspirin in adults aged 50-69 years with 10-year CVD risk of at least 10%, in who absolute health gain (reduction of CVD and cancer) is estimated to exceed absolute health loss (increase in bleeds). With the ongoing decline in CVD, current risk calculators for New Zealand are probably outdated, so it is difficult to be precise about what proportion of the population is in this risk category (roughly equivalent to 5-year CVD risk ≥5%). Nevertheless, we suspect that most smokers aged 50-69 years, and some non-smokers, would probably meet the new threshold for taking low-dose aspirin. The country therefore needs updated guidelines and risk calculators that are ideally informed by estimates of absolute net health gain (in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) per person) and cost-effectiveness. Other improvements to risk calculators include: epidemiological rigour (eg, by addressing competing mortality); providing enhanced graphical display of risk to enhance risk communication; and possibly capturing the issues of medication disutility and comparison with lifestyle changes.

Risk of wound infection and safety profile of amoxicillin in healthy patients which required third molar surgery: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Isiordia-Espinoza, M A; Aragon-Martinez, O H; Martínez-Morales, J F; Zapata-Morales, J R

2015-11-01

The aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to assess the risk of surgical wound infection and the adverse effects of amoxicillin in healthy patients who required excision of third molars. We identified eligible reports from searches of PubMed, Medline®, the Cochrane Library, Imbiomed, LILACS, and Google Scholar. Studies that met our minimum requirements were evaluated using inclusion and exclusion criteria and the Oxford Quality Scale. Those with a score of 3 or more on this Scale were included and their data were extracted and analysed. For evaluation of the risk of infection the absolute risk reduction, number needed to treat, and 95% CI were calculated. For evaluation of the risk of an adverse effect the absolute risk increase, number needed to harm, and 95% CI were calculated using the Risk Reduction Calculator. Each meta-analysis was made with the help of the Mantel-Haenszel random effects model, and estimates of risk (OR) and 95% CI were calculated using the Review Manager 5.3, from the Cochrane Library. A significant risk was assumed when the lower limit of the 95% CI was greater than 1. Probabilities of less than 0.05 were accepted as significant. The results showed that there was no reduction in the risk of infection when amoxicillin was given before or after operation compared with an untreated group or placebo. In conclusion, this study suggests that amoxicillin given prophylactically or postoperatively does not reduce the risk of infection in healthy patients having their third molars extracted. Copyright © 2015 The British Association of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine and Pneumonia Prevention in Children with Congenital Heart Disease.

PubMed

Solórzano-Santos, Fortino; Espinoza-García, Lilia; Aguilar-Martínez, Glorinella; Beirana-Palencia, Luisa; Echániz-Avilés, Gabriela; Miranda-Novales, Guadalupe

2017-01-01

A successful strategy to prevent Streptococcus pneumoniae infections is the administration of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs). To analyze the effectiveness of the 7- and 13-valent PCV for the prevention of all-cause pneumonia. A retrospective cohort of children younger than 5 years of age, with congenital heart disease (CHD) and different vaccination schedules, was analyzed. History of vaccination was confirmed with verifiable records. The outcome measure was all-cause pneumonia or bronchopneumonia. Protocol was approved by the Institutional Review Board. For comparisons, we used inferential statistics with Chi-square and Fisher's exact test; a p ≤ 0.5 was considered statistically significant. Relative and absolute risks reduction and number needed to treat were also calculated. A total of 348 patients were included: 196 with two or more doses of PCV (considered the vaccinated group), and 152 in the unvaccinated group. There was a statistically significant difference for pneumonia events (p < 0.001) between the vaccinated (26/196) and unvaccinated (51/152) groups. The relative risk reduction was 60.5%, and the absolute risk reduction, 20.3%. There were no differences between patients who received two, three or four doses. The number needed to vaccinate to prevent one event of pneumonia was 5 children. At least two doses of PCV in children with CHD reduced the risk of all-cause pneumonia.

Simulation study of the effect of influenza and influenza vaccination on risk of acquiring Guillain-Barré syndrome.

PubMed

Hawken, Steven; Kwong, Jeffrey C; Deeks, Shelley L; Crowcroft, Natasha S; McGeer, Allison J; Ducharme, Robin; Campitelli, Michael A; Coyle, Doug; Wilson, Kumanan

2015-02-01

It is unclear whether seasonal influenza vaccination results in a net increase or decrease in the risk for Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS). To assess the effect of seasonal influenza vaccination on the absolute risk of acquiring GBS, we used simulation models and published estimates of age- and sex-specific risks for GBS, influenza incidence, and vaccine effectiveness. For a hypothetical 45-year-old woman and 75-year-old man, excess GBS risk for influenza vaccination versus no vaccination was -0.36/1 million vaccinations (95% credible interval -1.22% to 0.28) and -0.42/1 million vaccinations (95% credible interval, -3.68 to 2.44), respectively. These numbers represent a small absolute reduction in GBS risk with vaccination. Under typical conditions (e.g. influenza incidence rates >5% and vaccine effectiveness >60%), vaccination reduced GBS risk. These findings should strengthen confidence in the safety of influenza vaccine and allow health professionals to better put GBS risk in context when discussing influenza vaccination with patients.

The Ethics of Information: Absolute Risk Reduction and Patient Understanding of Screening

PubMed Central

Meslin, Eric M.

2008-01-01

Some experts have argued that patients should routinely be told the specific magnitude and absolute probability of potential risks and benefits of screening tests. This position is motivated by the idea that framing risk information in ways that are less precise violates the ethical principle of respect for autonomy and its application in informed consent or shared decision-making. In this Perspective, we consider a number of problems with this view that have not been adequately addressed. The most important challenges stem from the danger that patients will misunderstand the information or have irrational responses to it. Any initiative in this area should take such factors into account and should consider carefully how to apply the ethical principles of respect for autonomy and beneficence. PMID:18421509

Patient stratification for preventive care in dentistry.

PubMed

Giannobile, W V; Braun, T M; Caplis, A K; Doucette-Stamm, L; Duff, G W; Kornman, K S

2013-08-01

Prevention reduces tooth loss, but little evidence supports biannual preventive care for all adults. We used risk-based approaches to test tooth loss association with 1 vs. 2 annual preventive visits in high-risk (HiR) and low-risk (LoR) patients. Insurance claims for 16 years for 5,117 adults were evaluated retrospectively for tooth extraction events. Patients were classified as HiR for progressive periodontitis if they had ≥ 1 of the risk factors (RFs) smoking, diabetes, interleukin-1 genotype; or as LoR if no RFs. LoR event rates were 13.8% and 16.4% for 2 or 1 annual preventive visits (absolute risk reduction, 2.6%; 95%CI, 0.5% to 5.8%; p = .092). HiR event rates were 16.9% and 22.1% for 2 and 1 preventive visits (absolute risk reduction, 5.2%; 95%CI, 1.8% to 8.4%; p = .002). Increasing RFs increased events (p < .001). Oral health care costs were not increased by any single RF, regardless of prevention frequency (p > .41), but multiple RFs increased costs vs. no (p < .001) or 1 RF (p = .001). For LoR individuals, the association between preventive dental visits and tooth loss was not significantly different whether the frequency was once or twice annually. A personalized medicine approach combining gene biomarkers with conventional risk factors to stratify populations may be useful in resource allocation for preventive dentistry (ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT01584479).

Effects of baseline risk information on social and individual choices.

PubMed

Gyrd-Hansen, Dorte; Kristiansen, Ivar Sønbø; Nexøe, Jørgen; Nielsen, Jesper Bo

2002-01-01

This article analyzes preferences for risk reductions in the context of individual and societal decision making. The effect of information on baseline risk is analyzed in both contexts. The results indicate that if individuals are to imagine that they suffer from 1 low-risk and 1 high-risk ailment, and are offered a specified identical absolute risk reduction, a majority will ceteris paribus opt for treatment of the low-risk ailment. A different preference structure is elicited when priority questions are framed as social choices. Here, a majority will prefer to treat the high-risk group of patients. The preference reversal demonstrates the extent to which baseline risk information can influence preferences in different choice settings. It is argued that presentation of baseline risk information may induce framing effects that lead to nonoptimal resource allocations. A solution to this problem may be to not present group-specific baseline risk information when eliciting preferences.

Effects of benefits and harms on older persons' willingness to take medication for primary cardiovascular prevention.

PubMed

Fried, Terri R; Tinetti, Mary E; Towle, Virginia; O'Leary, John R; Iannone, Lynne

2011-05-23

Quality-assurance initiatives encourage adherence to evidenced-based guidelines based on a consideration of treatment benefit. We examined older persons' willingness to take medication for primary cardiovascular disease prevention according to benefits and harms. In-person interviews were performed with 356 community-living older persons. Participants were asked about their willingness to take medication for primary prevention of myocardial infarction (MI) with varying benefits in terms of absolute 5-year risk reduction and varying harms in terms of type and severity of adverse effects. Most (88%) would take medication, providing an absolute benefit of 6 fewer persons with MI out of 100, approximating the average risk reduction of currently available medications. Of participants who would not take it, 17% changed their preference if the absolute benefit was increased to 10 fewer persons with MI, and, of participants who would take it, 82% remained willing if the absolute benefit was decreased to 3 fewer persons with MI. In contrast, large proportions (48%-69%) were unwilling or uncertain about taking medication with average benefit causing mild fatigue, nausea, or fuzzy thinking, and only 3% would take medication with adverse effects severe enough to affect functioning. Older persons' willingness to take medication for primary cardiovascular disease prevention is relatively insensitive to its benefit but highly sensitive to its adverse effects. These results suggest that clinical guidelines and decisions about prescribing these medications to older persons need to place emphasis on both benefits and harms.

Risk of lung cancer associated with domestic use of coal in Xuanwei, China: retrospective cohort study

PubMed Central

Chapman, Robert S; Silverman, Debra T; He, Xinghzhou; Hu, Wei; Vermeulen, Roel; Ning, Bofu; Fraumeni, Joseph F; Rothman, Nathaniel; Lan, Qing

2012-01-01

Objective To estimate the risk of lung cancer associated with the use of different types of coal for household cooking and heating. Setting Xuanwei County, Yunnan Province, China. Design Retrospective cohort study (follow-up 1976-96) comparing mortality from lung cancer between lifelong users of “smoky coal” (bituminous) and “smokeless coal” (anthracite). Participants 27 310 individuals using smoky coal and 9962 individuals using smokeless coal during their entire life. Main outcome measures Primary outcomes were absolute and relative risk of death from lung cancer among users of different types of coal. Unadjusted survival analysis was used to estimate the absolute risk of lung cancer, while Cox regression models compared mortality hazards for lung cancer between smoky and smokeless coal users. Results Lung cancer mortality was substantially higher among users of smoky coal than users of smokeless coal. The absolute risks of lung cancer death before 70 years of age for men and women using smoky coal were 18% and 20%, respectively, compared with less than 0.5% among smokeless coal users of both sexes. Lung cancer alone accounted for about 40% of all deaths before age 60 among individuals using smoky coal. Compared with smokeless coal, use of smoky coal was associated with an increased risk of lung cancer death (for men, hazard ratio 36 (95% confidence interval 20 to 65); for women, 99 (37 to 266)). Conclusions In Xuanwei, the domestic use of smoky coal is associated with a substantial increase in the absolute lifetime risk of developing lung cancer and is likely to represent one of the strongest effects of environmental pollution reported for cancer risk. Use of less carcinogenic types of coal could translate to a substantial reduction of lung cancer risk. PMID:22936785

A change in paradigm: lowering blood pressure in everyone over a certain age.

PubMed

Law, Malcolm

2012-06-01

Dividing people into 'hypertensives' and 'normotensives' is commonplace but problematic. The relationship between blood pressure and cardiovascular disease is continuous. The Prospective Studies Collaboration analysis shows a continuous straight line dose-response relationship across the entire population down to blood pressure levels of 115 mmHg systolic and 75 mmHg diastolic, the confidence limits on the individual data points being sufficiently narrow to exclude even a minor deviation from a linear relationship. Meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials shows that blood pressure-lowering drugs produce similar proportional reductions in risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke irrespective of pre-treatment blood pressure, down to levels of 110 mmHg systolic and 70 mmHg diastolic. There are also now sufficient trial data to show a statistically significant risk reduction in 'normotensive' people without known vascular disease on entry. The straight line (log-linear) relationship means that the benefit derived from lowering blood pressure is proportional to existing risk, so the decision on whom to treat with blood pressure-lowering drugs should depend on a person's overall absolute risk irrespective of blood pressure. In primary prevention, basing treatment on age alone rather than overall absolute risk entails little loss of efficacy and may be preferred on the basis of simplicity and avoidance of anxiety in telling people they are at elevated risk.

The effects of information framing on the practices of physicians.

PubMed

McGettigan, P; Sly, K; O'Connell, D; Hill, S; Henry, D

1999-10-01

The presentation format of clinical trial results, or the "frame," may influence perceptions about the worth of a treatment. The extent and consistency of that influence are unclear. We undertook a systematic review of the published literature on the effects of information framing on the practices of physicians. Relevant articles were retrieved using bibliographic and electronic searches. Information was extracted from each in relation to study design, frame type, parameter assessed, assessment scale, clinical setting, intervention, results, and factors modifying the frame effect. Twelve articles reported randomized trials investigating the effect of framing on doctors' opinions or intended practices. Methodological shortcomings were numerous. Seven papers investigated the effect of presenting clinical trial results in terms of relative risk reduction, or absolute risk reductions or the number needing to be treated; gain/loss (positive/negative) terms were used in four papers; verbal/numeric terms in one. In simple clinical scenarios, results expressed in relative risk reduction or gain terms were viewed most positively by doctors. Factors that reduced the impact of framing included the risk of causing harm, preexisting prejudices about treatments, the type of decision, the therapeutic yield, clinical experience, and costs. No study investigated the effect of framing on actual clinical practice. While a framing effect may exist, particularly when results are presented in terms of proportional or absolute measures of gain or loss, it appears highly susceptible to modification, and even neutralization, by other factors that influence doctors' decision making. Its effects on actual clinical practice are unknown.

Genetic risk, coronary heart disease events, and the clinical benefit of statin therapy: an analysis of primary and secondary prevention trials.

PubMed

Mega, J L; Stitziel, N O; Smith, J G; Chasman, D I; Caulfield, M; Devlin, J J; Nordio, F; Hyde, C; Cannon, C P; Sacks, F; Poulter, N; Sever, P; Ridker, P M; Braunwald, E; Melander, O; Kathiresan, S; Sabatine, M S

2015-06-06

Genetic variants have been associated with the risk of coronary heart disease. In this study, we tested whether or not a composite of these variants could ascertain the risk of both incident and recurrent coronary heart disease events and identify those individuals who derive greater clinical benefit from statin therapy. A community-based cohort study (the Malmo Diet and Cancer Study) and four randomised controlled trials of both primary prevention (JUPITER and ASCOT) and secondary prevention (CARE and PROVE IT-TIMI 22) with statin therapy, comprising a total of 48,421 individuals and 3477 events, were included in these analyses. We studied the association of a genetic risk score based on 27 genetic variants with incident or recurrent coronary heart disease, adjusting for traditional clinical risk factors. We then investigated the relative and absolute risk reductions in coronary heart disease events with statin therapy stratified by genetic risk. We combined data from the different studies using a meta-analysis. When individuals were divided into low (quintile 1), intermediate (quintiles 2-4), and high (quintile 5) genetic risk categories, a significant gradient in risk for incident or recurrent coronary heart disease was shown. Compared with the low genetic risk category, the multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio for coronary heart disease for the intermediate genetic risk category was 1·34 (95% CI 1·22-1·47, p<0·0001) and that for the high genetic risk category was 1·72 (1·55-1·92, p<0·0001). In terms of the benefit of statin therapy in the four randomised trials, we noted a significant gradient (p=0·0277) of increasing relative risk reductions across the low (13%), intermediate (29%), and high (48%) genetic risk categories. Similarly, we noted greater absolute risk reductions in those individuals in higher genetic risk categories (p=0·0101), resulting in a roughly threefold decrease in the number needed to treat to prevent one coronary heart disease event in the primary prevention trials. Specifically, in the primary prevention trials, the number needed to treat to prevent one such event in 10 years was 66 in people at low genetic risk, 42 in those at intermediate genetic risk, and 25 in those at high genetic risk in JUPITER, and 57, 47, and 20, respectively, in ASCOT. A genetic risk score identified individuals at increased risk for both incident and recurrent coronary heart disease events. People with the highest burden of genetic risk derived the largest relative and absolute clinical benefit from statin therapy. National Institutes of Health. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effect of supplementation during pregnancy with L-arginine and antioxidant vitamins in medical food on pre-eclampsia in high risk population: randomised controlled trial

PubMed Central

Perichart-Perera, Otilia; Espino, Salvador; Avila-Vergara, Marco Antonio; Ibarra, Isabel; Ahued, Roberto; Godines, Myrna; Parry, Samuel; Macones, George; Strauss, Jerome F

2011-01-01

Objective To test the hypothesis that a relative deficiency in L-arginine, the substrate for synthesis of the vasodilatory gas nitric oxide, may be associated with the development of pre-eclampsia in a population at high risk. Design Randomised, blinded, placebo controlled clinical trial. Setting Tertiary public hospital in Mexico City. Participants Pregnant women with a history of a previous pregnancy complicated by pre-eclampsia, or pre-eclampsia in a first degree relative, and deemed to be at increased risk of recurrence of the disease were studied from week 14-32 of gestation and followed until delivery. Interventions Supplementation with a medical food—bars containing L-arginine plus antioxidant vitamins, antioxidant vitamins alone, or placebo—during pregnancy. Main outcome measure Development of pre-eclampsia/eclampsia. Results 222 women were allocated to the placebo group, 228 received L-arginine plus antioxidant vitamins, and 222 received antioxidant vitamins alone. Women had 4-8 prenatal visits while receiving the bars. The incidence of pre-eclampsia was reduced significantly (χ2=19.41; P<0.001) in women randomised to L-arginine plus antioxidant vitamins compared with placebo (absolute risk reduction 0.17 (95% confidence interval 0.12 to 0.21). Antioxidant vitamins alone showed an observed benefit, but this effect was not statistically significant compared with placebo (χ2=3.76; P=0.052; absolute risk reduction 0.07, 0.005 to 0.15). L-arginine plus antioxidant vitamins compared with antioxidant vitamins alone resulted in a significant effect (P=0.004; absolute risk reduction 0.09, 0.05 to 0.14). Conclusions Supplementation during pregnancy with a medical food containing L-arginine and antioxidant vitamins reduced the incidence of pre-eclampsia in a population at high risk of the condition. Antioxidant vitamins alone did not have a protective effect for prevention of pre-eclampsia. Supplementation with L-arginine plus antioxidant vitamins needs to be evaluated in a low risk population to determine the generalisability of the protective effect, and the relative contributions of L-arginine and antioxidant vitamins to the observed effects of the combined treatment need to be determined. Trial registration Clinical trials NCT00469846. PMID:21596735

Polygenic Risk Score Identifies Subgroup With Higher Burden of Atherosclerosis and Greater Relative Benefit From Statin Therapy in the Primary Prevention Setting.

PubMed

Natarajan, Pradeep; Young, Robin; Stitziel, Nathan O; Padmanabhan, Sandosh; Baber, Usman; Mehran, Roxana; Sartori, Samantha; Fuster, Valentin; Reilly, Dermot F; Butterworth, Adam; Rader, Daniel J; Ford, Ian; Sattar, Naveed; Kathiresan, Sekar

2017-05-30

Relative risk reduction with statin therapy has been consistent across nearly all subgroups studied to date. However, in analyses of 2 randomized controlled primary prevention trials (ASCOT [Anglo-Scandinavian Cardiac Outcomes Trial-Lipid-Lowering Arm] and JUPITER [Justification for the Use of Statins in Prevention: An Intervention Trial Evaluating Rosuvastatin]), statin therapy led to a greater relative risk reduction among a subgroup at high genetic risk. Here, we aimed to confirm this observation in a third primary prevention randomized controlled trial. In addition, we assessed whether those at high genetic risk had a greater burden of subclinical coronary atherosclerosis. We studied participants from a randomized controlled trial of primary prevention with statin therapy (WOSCOPS [West of Scotland Coronary Prevention Study]; n=4910) and 2 observational cohort studies (CARDIA [Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults] and BioImage; n=1154 and 4392, respectively). For each participant, we calculated a polygenic risk score derived from up to 57 common DNA sequence variants previously associated with coronary heart disease. We compared the relative efficacy of statin therapy in those at high genetic risk (top quintile of polygenic risk score) versus all others (WOSCOPS), as well as the association between the polygenic risk score and coronary artery calcification (CARDIA) and carotid artery plaque burden (BioImage). Among WOSCOPS trial participants at high genetic risk, statin therapy was associated with a relative risk reduction of 44% (95% confidence interval [CI], 22-60; P <0.001), whereas in all others, the relative risk reduction was 24% (95% CI, 8-37; P =0.004) despite similar low-density lipoprotein cholesterol lowering. In a study-level meta-analysis across the WOSCOPS, ASCOT, and JUPITER primary prevention, relative risk reduction in those at high genetic risk was 46% versus 26% in all others ( P for heterogeneity=0.05). Across all 3 studies, the absolute risk reduction with statin therapy was 3.6% (95% CI, 2.0-5.1) among those in the high genetic risk group and 1.3% (95% CI, 0.6-1.9) in all others. Each 1-SD increase in the polygenic risk score was associated with 1.32-fold (95% CI, 1.04-1.68) greater likelihood of having coronary artery calcification and 9.7% higher (95% CI, 2.2-17.8) burden of carotid plaque. Those at high genetic risk have a greater burden of subclinical atherosclerosis and derive greater relative and absolute benefit from statin therapy to prevent a first coronary heart disease event. URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifiers: NCT00738725 (BioImage) and NCT00005130 (CARDIA). WOSCOPS was carried out and completed before the requirement for clinical trial registration. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Simulation Study of the Effect of Influenza and Influenza Vaccination on Risk of Acquiring Guillain-Barré Syndrome

PubMed Central

Hawken, Steven; Kwong, Jeffrey C.; Deeks, Shelley L.; Crowcroft, Natasha S.; McGeer, Allison J.; Ducharme, Robin; Campitelli, Michael A.; Coyle, Doug

2015-01-01

It is unclear whether seasonal influenza vaccination results in a net increase or decrease in the risk for Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS). To assess the effect of seasonal influenza vaccination on the absolute risk of acquiring GBS, we used simulation models and published estimates of age- and sex-specific risks for GBS, influenza incidence, and vaccine effectiveness. For a hypothetical 45-year-old woman and 75-year-old man, excess GBS risk for influenza vaccination versus no vaccination was −0.36/1 million vaccinations (95% credible interval −1.22 to 0.28) and −0.42/1 million vaccinations (95% credible interval, –3.68 to 2.44), respectively. These numbers represent a small absolute reduction in GBS risk with vaccination. Under typical conditions (e.g. influenza incidence rates >5% and vaccine effectiveness >60%), vaccination reduced GBS risk. These findings should strengthen confidence in the safety of influenza vaccine and allow health professionals to better put GBS risk in context when discussing influenza vaccination with patients. PMID:25625590

Left-sided breast cancer and risks of secondary lung cancer and ischemic heart disease : Effects of modern radiotherapy techniques.

PubMed

Corradini, Stefanie; Ballhausen, Hendrik; Weingandt, Helmut; Freislederer, Philipp; Schönecker, Stephan; Niyazi, Maximilian; Simonetto, Cristoforo; Eidemüller, Markus; Ganswindt, Ute; Belka, Claus

2018-03-01

Modern breast cancer radiotherapy techniques, such as respiratory-gated radiotherapy in deep-inspiration breath-hold (DIBH) or volumetric-modulated arc radiotherapy (VMAT) have been shown to reduce the high dose exposure of the heart in left-sided breast cancer. The aim of the present study was to comparatively estimate the excess relative and absolute risks of radiation-induced secondary lung cancer and ischemic heart disease for different modern radiotherapy techniques. Four different treatment plans were generated for ten computed tomography data sets of patients with left-sided breast cancer, using either three-dimensional conformal radiotherapy (3D-CRT) or VMAT, in free-breathing (FB) or DIBH. Dose-volume histograms were used for organ equivalent dose (OED) calculations using linear, linear-exponential, and plateau models for the lung. A linear model was applied to estimate the long-term risk of ischemic heart disease as motivated by epidemiologic data. Excess relative risk (ERR) and 10-year excess absolute risk (EAR) for radiation-induced secondary lung cancer and ischemic heart disease were estimated for different representative baseline risks. The DIBH maneuver resulted in a significant reduction of the ERR and estimated 10-year excess absolute risk for major coronary events compared to FB in 3D-CRT plans (p = 0.04). In VMAT plans, the mean predicted risk reduction through DIBH was less pronounced and not statistically significant (p = 0.44). The risk of radiation-induced secondary lung cancer was mainly influenced by the radiotherapy technique, with no beneficial effect through DIBH. VMAT plans correlated with an increase in 10-year EAR for radiation-induced lung cancer as compared to 3D-CRT plans (DIBH p = 0.007; FB p = 0.005, respectively). However, the EARs were affected more strongly by nonradiation-associated risk factors, such as smoking, as compared to the choice of treatment technique. The results indicate that 3D-CRT plans in DIBH pose the lowest risk for both major coronary events and secondary lung cancer.

[Four numbers and a bit more basic knowledge of mathematics].

PubMed

Günther, Judith; Briel, Matthias; Suter, Katja

2015-02-01

In addition to relative risk, relative risk reduction and absolute risk reduction there circulates another effect size for binary endpoints in the scientific medical literature: the odds ratio. Relative risk and odds ratio are alternative ways of reflecting study results. Both, relative risk (RR) and odds ratio (OR), can easily be calculated from the "2 x 2-table". Advantage of OR: odds ratios can be calculated in every type of controlled study design, including retrospective studies. Furthermore, odds ratios--the biostatisticians are swarming--offer beautiful mathematical properties and therefore are often used in meta-analysis as an effect size for calculating a pooled estimate of the results of different studies with the same clinical question. Disadvantage of OR: In clinical studies the presentation of the results as "odds ratios" may result in an overestimation of the intervention effect. This article shows the difference between "chance" and "risk" and how odds ratio and relative risk are associated.

Patient Stratification for Preventive Care in Dentistry

PubMed Central

Giannobile, W.V.; Braun, T.M.; Caplis, A.K.; Doucette-Stamm, L.; Duff, G.W.; Kornman, K.S.

2013-01-01

Prevention reduces tooth loss, but little evidence supports biannual preventive care for all adults. We used risk-based approaches to test tooth loss association with 1 vs. 2 annual preventive visits in high-risk (HiR) and low-risk (LoR) patients. Insurance claims for 16 years for 5,117 adults were evaluated retrospectively for tooth extraction events. Patients were classified as HiR for progressive periodontitis if they had ≥ 1 of the risk factors (RFs) smoking, diabetes, interleukin-1 genotype; or as LoR if no RFs. LoR event rates were 13.8% and 16.4% for 2 or 1 annual preventive visits (absolute risk reduction, 2.6%; 95%CI, 0.5% to 5.8%; p = .092). HiR event rates were 16.9% and 22.1% for 2 and 1 preventive visits (absolute risk reduction, 5.2%; 95%CI, 1.8% to 8.4%; p = .002). Increasing RFs increased events (p < .001). Oral health care costs were not increased by any single RF, regardless of prevention frequency (p > .41), but multiple RFs increased costs vs. no (p < .001) or 1 RF (p = .001). For LoR individuals, the association between preventive dental visits and tooth loss was not significantly different whether the frequency was once or twice annually. A personalized medicine approach combining gene biomarkers with conventional risk factors to stratify populations may be useful in resource allocation for preventive dentistry (ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT01584479). PMID:23752171

Breast Cancer Risk From Modifiable and Nonmodifiable Risk Factors Among White Women in the United States

PubMed Central

Maas, Paige; Barrdahl, Myrto; Joshi, Amit D.; Auer, Paul L.; Gaudet, Mia M.; Milne, Roger L.; Schumacher, Fredrick R.; Anderson, William F.; Check, David; Chattopadhyay, Subham; Baglietto, Laura; Berg, Christine D.; Chanock, Stephen J.; Cox, David G.; Figueroa, Jonine D.; Gail, Mitchell H.; Graubard, Barry I.; Haiman, Christopher A.; Hankinson, Susan E.; Hoover, Robert N.; Isaacs, Claudine; Kolonel, Laurence N.; Le Marchand, Loic; Lee, I-Min; Lindström, Sara; Overvad, Kim; Romieu, Isabelle; Sanchez, Maria-Jose; Southey, Melissa C.; Stram, Daniel O.; Tumino, Rosario; VanderWeele, Tyler J.; Willett, Walter C.; Zhang, Shumin; Buring, Julie E.; Canzian, Federico; Gapstur, Susan M.; Henderson, Brian E.; Hunter, David J.; Giles, Graham G; Prentice, Ross L.; Ziegler, Regina G.; Kraft, Peter; Garcia-Closas, Montse; Chatterjee, Nilanjan

2017-01-01

IMPORTANCE An improved model for risk stratification can be useful for guiding public health strategies of breast cancer prevention. OBJECTIVE To evaluate combined risk stratification utility of common low penetrant single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and epidemiologic risk factors. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Using a total of 17 171 cases and 19 862 controls sampled from the Breast and Prostate Cancer Cohort Consortium (BPC3) and 5879 women participating in the 2010 National Health Interview Survey, a model for predicting absolute risk of breast cancer was developed combining information on individual level data on epidemiologic risk factors and 24 genotyped SNPs from prospective cohort studies, published estimate of odds ratios for 68 additional SNPs, population incidence rate from the National Cancer Institute-Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program cancer registry and data on risk factor distribution from nationally representative health survey. The model is used to project the distribution of absolute risk for the population of white women in the United States after adjustment for competing cause of mortality. EXPOSURES Single nucleotide polymorphisms, family history, anthropometric factors, menstrual and/or reproductive factors, and lifestyle factors. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Degree of stratification of absolute risk owing to nonmodifiable (SNPs, family history, height, and some components of menstrual and/or reproductive history) and modifiable factors (body mass index [BMI; calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared], menopausal hormone therapy [MHT], alcohol, and smoking). RESULTS The average absolute risk for a 30-year-old white woman in the United States developing invasive breast cancer by age 80 years is 11.3%. A model that includes all risk factors provided a range of average absolute risk from 4.4% to 23.5% for women in the bottom and top deciles of the risk distribution, respectively. For women who were at the lowest and highest deciles of nonmodifiable risks, the 5th and 95th percentile range of the risk distribution associated with 4 modifiable factors was 2.9% to 5.0% and 15.5% to 25.0%, respectively. For women in the highest decile of risk owing to nonmodifiable factors, those who had low BMI, did not drink or smoke, and did not use MHT had risks comparable to an average woman in the general population. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE This model for absolute risk of breast cancer including SNPs can provide stratification for the population of white women in the United States. The model can also identify subsets of the population at an elevated risk that would benefit most from risk-reduction strategies based on altering modifiable factors. The effectiveness of this model for individual risk communication needs further investigation. PMID:27228256

Effect on the lipid parameters of an intervention to reduce weight in overweight and obese patients.

PubMed

Tárraga Marcos, M Loreto; Panisello Royo, Josefa María; Carbayo Herencia, Julio A; Rosich Domenech, Nuria; Alins Presas, Josep; Tárraga López, Pedro J

To assess the effect on lipid parameters most associated with excess weight (triglycerides [TG], cholesterol, and high density lipoprotein [HDL-C]) of an intervention to reduce weight in overweight and obese patients. A randomised, controlled, double blind clinical trial, with three groups, and a follow-up of 12 months. Patients included in the study were randomised into three intervention groups: Obesity motivational intervention group with previously trained nurse (G1), lower intensity consultation, non-motivational group, with digital platform support (G2), and a third group that received a recommendation to lose weight and usual follow-up (G3). The anthropometric variables measured were height, weight, and abdominal/waist circumference, and laboratory results, total cholesterol, TG and HDL cholesterol). The study include 176 patients, of whom 60 were randomised to G1, 61 to G2, and 59 to G3. All groups significantly decreased body weight at the end of the study, with a decrease in G1 (-5.6kg), followed by G2 (-4.3kg), and G3 (-1.7kg), with an overall mean loss of -3.9kg. There was a also significant decrease (P<.05) in total cholesterol and TG, and an increased HDL-C. These changes were more marked in the G1 group (the group that lost more weight). The clinical relevance indicators that were significant were: in the case of TG: G1/G3: relative risk: 1.42 (95% CI: 1.11-1.80); relative risk reduction: 41.7% (11.4-80.2); absolute risk reduction: 25% (9.2-40.8) and NNT: 5 (3-11). In the case of G1/G2 HDL-C: relative risk: 1.32 (1.07-1.63); relative risk reduction: 32.2% (7.4-62.6); absolute risk reduction: 21.1% (6.4-35.8) and NNT: 5 (3-16). Weight reduction is accompanied by favorable changes in the lipid parameters related to overweight and obesity, being more intense the greater the weight loss. Copyright © 2017 Sociedad Española de Arteriosclerosis. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Quantification of Treatment Effect Modification on Both an Additive and Multiplicative Scale

PubMed Central

Girerd, Nicolas; Rabilloud, Muriel; Pibarot, Philippe; Mathieu, Patrick; Roy, Pascal

2016-01-01

Background In both observational and randomized studies, associations with overall survival are by and large assessed on a multiplicative scale using the Cox model. However, clinicians and clinical researchers have an ardent interest in assessing absolute benefit associated with treatments. In older patients, some studies have reported lower relative treatment effect, which might translate into similar or even greater absolute treatment effect given their high baseline hazard for clinical events. Methods The effect of treatment and the effect modification of treatment were respectively assessed using a multiplicative and an additive hazard model in an analysis adjusted for propensity score in the context of coronary surgery. Results The multiplicative model yielded a lower relative hazard reduction with bilateral internal thoracic artery grafting in older patients (Hazard ratio for interaction/year = 1.03, 95%CI: 1.00 to 1.06, p = 0.05) whereas the additive model reported a similar absolute hazard reduction with increasing age (Delta for interaction/year = 0.10, 95%CI: -0.27 to 0.46, p = 0.61). The number needed to treat derived from the propensity score-adjusted multiplicative model was remarkably similar at the end of the follow-up in patients aged < = 60 and in patients >70. Conclusions The present example demonstrates that a lower treatment effect in older patients on a relative scale can conversely translate into a similar treatment effect on an additive scale due to large baseline hazard differences. Importantly, absolute risk reduction, either crude or adjusted, can be calculated from multiplicative survival models. We advocate for a wider use of the absolute scale, especially using additive hazard models, to assess treatment effect and treatment effect modification. PMID:27045168

Investigating maternal risk factors as potential targets of intervention to reduce socioeconomic inequality in small for gestational age: a population-based study.

PubMed

Hayward, Irene; Malcoe, Lorraine Halinka; Cleathero, Lesley A; Janssen, Patricia A; Lanphear, Bruce P; Hayes, Michael V; Mattman, Andre; Pampalon, Robert; Venners, Scott A

2012-06-13

The major aim of this study was to investigate whether maternal risk factors associated with socioeconomic status and small for gestational age (SGA) might be viable targets of interventions to reduce differential risk of SGA by socioeconomic status (socioeconomic SGA inequality) in the metropolitan area of Vancouver, Canada. This study included 59,039 live, singleton births in the Vancouver Census Metropolitan Area (Vancouver) from January 1, 2006 to September 17, 2009. To identify an indicator of socioeconomic SGA inequality, we used hierarchical logistic regression to model SGA by area-level variables from the Canadian census. We then modelled SGA by area-level average income plus established maternal risk factors for SGA and calculated population attributable SGA risk percentages (PAR%) for each variable. Associations of maternal risk factors for SGA with average income were investigated to identify those that might contribute to SGA inequality. Finally, we estimated crude reductions in the percentage and absolute differences in SGA risks between highest and lowest average income quintiles that would result if interventions on maternal risk factors successfully equalized them across income levels or eliminated them altogether. Average income produced the most linear and statistically significant indicator of socioeconomic SGA inequality with 8.9% prevalence of SGA in the lowest income quintile compared to 5.6% in the highest. The adjusted PAR% of SGA for variables were: bottom four quintiles of height (51%), first birth (32%), bottom four quintiles of average income (14%), oligohydramnios (7%), underweight or hypertension, (6% each), smoking (3%) and placental disorder (1%). Shorter height, underweight and smoking during pregnancy had higher prevalence in lower income groups. Crude models assuming equalization of risk factors across income levels or elimination altogether indicated little potential change in relative socioeconomic SGA inequality and reduction in absolute SGA inequality for shorter height only. Our findings regarding maternal height may indicate trans-generational aetiology for socioeconomic SGA inequalities and/or that adult height influences social mobility. Conditions affecting foetal and childhood growth might be viable targets to reduce absolute socioeconomic SGA inequality in future generations, but more research is needed to determine whether such an approach is appropriate.

Evaluation of the stepwise collimation method for the reduction of the patient dose in full spine radiography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Boram; Lee, Sunyoung; Yang, Injeong; Yoon, Myeonggeun

2014-05-01

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the dose reduction when using the stepwise collimation method for scoliosis patients undergoing full spine radiography. A Monte Carlo simulation was carried out to acquire dose vs. volume data for organs at risk (OAR) in the human body. While the effective doses in full spine radiography were reduced by 8, 15, 27 and 44% by using four different sizes of the collimation, the doses to the skin were reduced by 31, 44, 55 and 66%, indicating that the reduction of the dose to the skin is higher than that to organs inside the body. Although the reduction rates were low for the gonad, being 9, 14, 18 and 23%, there was more than a 30% reduction in the dose to the heart, suggesting that the dose reduction depends significantly on the location of the OARs in the human body. The reduction rate of the secondary cancer risk based on the excess absolute risk (EAR) varied from 0.6 to 3.4 per 10,000 persons, depending on the size of the collimation. Our results suggest that the stepwise collimation method in full spine radiography can effectively reduce the patient dose and the radiation-induced secondary cancer risk.

Variance computations for functional of absolute risk estimates.

PubMed

Pfeiffer, R M; Petracci, E

2011-07-01

We present a simple influence function based approach to compute the variances of estimates of absolute risk and functions of absolute risk. We apply this approach to criteria that assess the impact of changes in the risk factor distribution on absolute risk for an individual and at the population level. As an illustration we use an absolute risk prediction model for breast cancer that includes modifiable risk factors in addition to standard breast cancer risk factors. Influence function based variance estimates for absolute risk and the criteria are compared to bootstrap variance estimates.

Variance computations for functional of absolute risk estimates

PubMed Central

Pfeiffer, R.M.; Petracci, E.

2011-01-01

We present a simple influence function based approach to compute the variances of estimates of absolute risk and functions of absolute risk. We apply this approach to criteria that assess the impact of changes in the risk factor distribution on absolute risk for an individual and at the population level. As an illustration we use an absolute risk prediction model for breast cancer that includes modifiable risk factors in addition to standard breast cancer risk factors. Influence function based variance estimates for absolute risk and the criteria are compared to bootstrap variance estimates. PMID:21643476

Aspirin and the Primary Prevention of Cardiovascular Diseases: An Approach Based on Individualized, Integrated Estimation of Risk.

PubMed

Volpe, Massimo; Battistoni, Allegra; Gallo, Giovanna; Coluccia, Roberta; De Caterina, Raffaele

2017-09-01

While the use of aspirin in the secondary prevention of cardiovascular (CVD) is well established, aspirin in primary prevention is not systematically recommended because the absolute CV event reduction is similar to the absolute excess in major bleedings. Recently, emerging evidence suggests the possibility that the assumption of aspirin, may also be effective in the prevention of cancer. By adding to the CV prevention benefits the potential beneficial effect of aspirin in reducing the incidence of mortality and cancer could tip the balance between risks and benefits of aspirin therapy in the primary prevention in favour of the latter and broaden the indication for treatment with in populations at average risk. While prospective and randomized study are currently investigating the effect of aspirin in prevention of both cancer and CVD, clinical efforts at the individual level to promote the use of aspirin in global (or total) primary prevention could be already based on a balanced evaluation of the benefit/risk ratio.

Risk aversion and willingness to pay for water quality: The case of non-farm rural residents.

PubMed

Larue, Bruno; West, Gale E; Singbo, Alphonse; Tamini, Lota Dabio

2017-07-15

Stated choice experiments are used to investigate the economic valuation of rural residents living in the province of Quebec for water quality improvements. In Quebec, rural residents played an important role in the setting of stricter environmental regulations. Unlike most stated choice experiments about the valuation of improvements in water quality, this study explicitly accounts for risk in the design and analysis of choice experiments. Risk in phosphorus and coliform reductions is introduced through a three-point uniform distribution in the choice sets. The results show greater support for constant absolute risk aversion preferences than for constant relative risk aversion. Rural residents value coliform and phosphorus reductions and the more educated ones are particularly willing to see the government tax farmers and taxpayers to secure such reductions. As the science improves and risk in water quality outcomes decrease and as the political weight of non-farm rural residents increase, it should be easier for governments to replace voluntary cost-share programs by polluter-payer programs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cancer in Machado-Joseph disease patients-low frequency as a cause of death.

PubMed

Souza, Gabriele Nunes; Kersting, Nathália; Gonçalves, Thomaz Abramsson; Pacheco, Daphne Louise Oliveira; Saraiva-Pereira, Maria-Luiza; Camey, Suzi Alves; Saute, Jonas Alex Morales; Jardim, Laura Bannach

2017-04-01

Since polyglutamine diseases have been related to a reduced risk of cancer, we aimed to study the 15 years cumulative incidence of cancer (CIC) (arm 1) and the proportion of cancer as a cause of death (arm 2) in symptomatic carriers of spinocerebellar ataxia type 3/Machado-Joseph disease (SCA3/MJD). SCA3/MJD and control individuals from our state were invited to participate. A structured interview was performed. CIC as published by the Brazilian National Institute of Cancer, was used as populational control. Causes of death were obtained from the Public Information System on Mortality. We interviewed 154 SCA3/MJD patients and 80 unrelated controls: CIC was 7/154 (4.5%) and 5/80 (6.3%), respectively. The interim analysis for futility showed that the number of individuals required to detect a significant difference between groups (1938) would be three times larger than the existing local SCA3/MJD population (625), for an absolute risk reduction of 1.8%. Then this study arm was discontinued due to lack of power. In the same period, cancer was a cause of death in 9/101 (8.9%) SCA3/MJD and in 52/202 (26.2%) controls, with an absolute reduction risk of 17.3% (OR 0.27, 95%CI 0.13 to 0.58, p = 0.01). A significant reduction of cancer as cause of death was observed in SCA3/MJD, suggesting a common effect to all polyglutamine diseases. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Communicating cardiovascular disease risk: an interview study of General Practitioners' use of absolute risk within tailored communication strategies.

PubMed

Bonner, Carissa; Jansen, Jesse; McKinn, Shannon; Irwig, Les; Doust, Jenny; Glasziou, Paul; McCaffery, Kirsten

2014-05-29

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention guidelines encourage assessment of absolute CVD risk - the probability of a CVD event within a fixed time period, based on the most predictive risk factors. However, few General Practitioners (GPs) use absolute CVD risk consistently, and communication difficulties have been identified as a barrier to changing practice. This study aimed to explore GPs' descriptions of their CVD risk communication strategies, including the role of absolute risk. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with a purposive sample of 25 GPs in New South Wales, Australia. Transcribed audio-recordings were thematically coded, using the Framework Analysis method to ensure rigour. GPs used absolute CVD risk within three different communication strategies: 'positive', 'scare tactic', and 'indirect'. A 'positive' strategy, which aimed to reassure and motivate, was used for patients with low risk, determination to change lifestyle, and some concern about CVD risk. Absolute risk was used to show how they could reduce risk. A 'scare tactic' strategy was used for patients with high risk, lack of motivation, and a dismissive attitude. Absolute risk was used to 'scare' them into taking action. An 'indirect' strategy, where CVD risk was not the main focus, was used for patients with low risk but some lifestyle risk factors, high anxiety, high resistance to change, or difficulty understanding probabilities. Non-quantitative absolute risk formats were found to be helpful in these situations. This study demonstrated how GPs use three different communication strategies to address the issue of CVD risk, depending on their perception of patient risk, motivation and anxiety. Absolute risk played a different role within each strategy. Providing GPs with alternative ways of explaining absolute risk, in order to achieve different communication aims, may improve their use of absolute CVD risk assessment in practice.

Effect of intensive structured care on individual blood pressure targets in primary care: multicentre randomised controlled trial.

PubMed

Stewart, Simon; Carrington, Melinda J; Swemmer, Carla H; Anderson, Craig; Kurstjens, Nicol P; Amerena, John; Brown, Alex; Burrell, Louise M; de Looze, Ferdinandus J; Harris, Mark; Hung, Joseph; Krum, Henry; Nelson, Mark; Schlaich, Markus; Stocks, Nigel P; Jennings, Garry L

2012-11-20

To determine the effectiveness of intensive structured care to optimise blood pressure control based on individual absolute risk targets in primary care. Pragmatic multicentre randomised controlled trial. General practices throughout Australia, except Northern Territory, 2009-11. Of 2185 patients from 119 general practices who were eligible for drug treatment for hypertension according to national guidelines 416 (19.0%) achieved their individual blood pressure target during a 28 day run-in period of monotherapy. After exclusions, 1562 participants not at target blood pressure (systolic 150 (SD 17) mm Hg, diastolic 88 (SD 11) mm Hg) were randomised (1:2 ratio) to usual care (n=524) or the intervention (n=1038). Computer assisted clinical profiling and risk target setting (all participants) with intensified follow-up and stepwise drug titration (initial angiotensin receptor blocker monotherapy or two forms of combination therapy using angiotensin receptor blockers) for those randomised to the intervention. The control group received usual care. The primary outcome was individual blood pressure target achieved at 26 weeks. Secondary outcomes were change in mean sitting systolic and diastolic blood pressure, absolute risk for cardiovascular disease within five years based on the Framingham risk score, and proportion and rate of adverse events. On an intention to treat basis, there was an 8.8% absolute difference in individual blood pressure target achieved at 26 weeks in favour of the intervention group compared with usual care group (358/988 (36.2%) v 138/504 (27.4%)): adjusted relative risk 1.28 (95% confidence interval 1.10 to 1.49, P=0.0013). There was also a 9.5% absolute difference in favour of the intervention group for achieving the classic blood pressure target of ≤ 140/90 mm Hg (627/988 (63.5%) v 272/504 (54.0%)): adjusted relative risk 1.18 (1.07 to 1.29, P<0.001). The intervention group achieved a mean adjusted reduction in systolic blood pressure of 13.2 mm Hg (95% confidence interval -12.3 to -14.2 mm Hg) and diastolic blood pressure of 7.7 mm Hg (-7.1 to -8.3 mm Hg) v 10.1 mm Hg (-8.8 to 11.3 mm Hg) and 5.5 mm Hg (-4.7 to -6.2 mm Hg) in the usual care group (P<0.001). Among 1141 participants in whom five year absolute cardiovascular risk scores were calculated from baseline to the 26 week follow-up, the reduction in risk scores was greater in the intervention group than usual care group (14.7% (SD 9.3%) to 10.9% (SD 8.0%); difference -3.7% (SD 4.5%) and 15.0% (SD 10.1%) to 12.4% (SD 9.4%); -2.6% (SD 4.5%): adjusted mean difference -1.13% (95% confidence interval -0.69% to -1.63%; P<0.001). Owing to adverse events 82 (7.9%) participants in the intervention group and 10 (1.9%) in the usual care group had their drug treatment modified. In a primary care setting intensive structured care resulted in higher levels of blood pressure control, with clinically lower blood pressure and absolute risk of future cardiovascular events overall and with more people achieving their target blood pressure. An important gap in treatment remains though and applying intensive management and achieving currently advocated risk based blood pressure targets is challenging.

Warfarin versus aspirin for stroke prevention in an elderly community population with atrial fibrillation (the Birmingham Atrial Fibrillation Treatment of the Aged Study, BAFTA): a randomised controlled trial.

PubMed

Mant, Jonathan; Hobbs, F D Richard; Fletcher, Kate; Roalfe, Andrea; Fitzmaurice, David; Lip, Gregory Y H; Murray, Ellen

2007-08-11

Anticoagulants are more effective than antiplatelet agents at reducing stroke risk in patients with atrial fibrillation, but whether this benefit outweighs the increased risk of bleeding in elderly patients is unknown. We assessed whether warfarin reduced risk of major stroke, arterial embolism, or other intracranial haemorrhage compared with aspirin in elderly patients. 973 patients aged 75 years or over (mean age 81.5 years, SD 4.2) with atrial fibrillation were recruited from primary care and randomly assigned to warfarin (target international normalised ratio 2-3) or aspirin (75 mg per day). Follow-up was for a mean of 2.7 years (SD 1.2). The primary endpoint was fatal or disabling stroke (ischaemic or haemorrhagic), intracranial haemorrhage, or clinically significant arterial embolism. Analysis was by intention to treat. This study is registered as an International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial, number ISRCTN89345269. There were 24 primary events (21 strokes, two other intracranial haemorrhages, and one systemic embolus) in people assigned to warfarin and 48 primary events (44 strokes, one other intracranial haemorrhage, and three systemic emboli) in people assigned to aspirin (yearly risk 1.8%vs 3.8%, relative risk 0.48, 95% CI 0.28-0.80, p=0.003; absolute yearly risk reduction 2%, 95% CI 0.7-3.2). Yearly risk of extracranial haemorrhage was 1.4% (warfarin) versus 1.6% (aspirin) (relative risk 0.87, 0.43-1.73; absolute risk reduction 0.2%, -0.7 to 1.2). These data support the use of anticoagulation therapy for people aged over 75 who have atrial fibrillation, unless there are contraindications or the patient decides that the benefits are not worth the inconvenience.

Atherothrombotic Risk Stratification and Ezetimibe for Secondary Prevention.

PubMed

Bohula, Erin A; Morrow, David A; Giugliano, Robert P; Blazing, Michael A; He, Ping; Park, Jeong-Gun; Murphy, Sabina A; White, Jennifer A; Kesaniemi, Y Antero; Pedersen, Terje R; Brady, Adrian J; Mitchel, Yale; Cannon, Christopher P; Braunwald, Eugene

2017-02-28

Ezetimibe improves cardiovascular (CV) outcomes in patients stabilized after acute coronary syndrome (ACS) when added to statin therapy. After ACS, patients vary considerably in their risk for recurrent CV events. This study tested the hypothesis that atherothrombotic risk stratification may be useful to identify post-ACS patients who have the greatest potential for benefit from the addition of ezetimibe to statin therapy. The TIMI (Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction) Risk Score for Secondary Prevention (TRS 2°P) is a simple 9-point risk stratification tool, previously developed in a large population with atherothrombosis to predict CV death, myocardial infarction (MI), and ischemic stroke (CV death/MI/ischemic cerebrovascular accident [iCVA]). The current study applied this tool prospectively to 17,717 post-ACS patients randomized either to ezetimibe and simvastatin or to placebo and simvastatin in IMPROVE-IT (Improved Reduction of Outcomes: Vytorin Efficacy International Trial). Treatment efficacy was assessed by baseline risk for CV death/MI/iCVA, the IMPROVE-IT composite endpoints (CE), and individual component endpoints at 7 years. All 9 clinical variables in the TRS 2°P were independent risk indicators for CV death/MI/iCVA (p < 0.001). The integer-based scheme showed a strong graded relationship with the rate of CV death/MI/iCVA, the trial CE, and the individual components (p trend <0.0001 for each). High-risk patients (n = 4,393; 25%), defined by ≥3 risk indicators, had a 6.3% (95% confidence interval: 2.9% to 9.7%) absolute risk reduction in CV death/MI/iCVA at 7 years with ezetimibe/simvastatin, thus translating to a number-needed-to-treat of 16. Intermediate-risk patients (2 risk indicators; n = 5,292; 30%) had a 2.2% (95% confidence interval: -0.3% to 4.6%) absolute risk reduction. Low-risk patients (0 to 1 risk indicators; n = 8,032; 45%) did not appear to derive benefit from the addition of ezetimibe (p interaction = 0.010). Similar findings were observed for the IMPROVE-IT primary CE. Atherothrombotic risk stratification using the TRS 2°P identifies high-risk patients who derive greatest benefit from the addition of ezetimibe to statin therapy for secondary prevention after ACS. (Improved Reduction of Outcomes: Vytorin Efficacy International Trial [IMPROVE-IT]; NCT00202878). Copyright © 2017 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Comparative Effectiveness of Personalized Lifestyle Management Strategies for Cardiovascular Disease Risk Reduction.

PubMed

Chu, Paula; Pandya, Ankur; Salomon, Joshua A; Goldie, Sue J; Hunink, M G Myriam

2016-03-29

Evidence shows that healthy diet, exercise, smoking interventions, and stress reduction reduce cardiovascular disease risk. We aimed to compare the effectiveness of these lifestyle interventions for individual risk profiles and determine their rank order in reducing 10-year cardiovascular disease risk. We computed risks using the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Pooled Cohort Equations for a variety of individual profiles. Using published literature on risk factor reductions through diverse lifestyle interventions-group therapy for stopping smoking, Mediterranean diet, aerobic exercise (walking), and yoga-we calculated the risk reduction through each of these interventions to determine the strategy associated with the maximum benefit for each profile. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to test the robustness of the results. In the base-case analysis, yoga was associated with the largest 10-year cardiovascular disease risk reductions (maximum absolute reduction 16.7% for the highest-risk individuals). Walking generally ranked second (max 11.4%), followed by Mediterranean diet (max 9.2%), and group therapy for smoking (max 1.6%). If the individual was a current smoker and successfully quit smoking (ie, achieved complete smoking cessation), then stopping smoking yielded the largest reduction. Probabilistic and 1-way sensitivity analysis confirmed the demonstrated trend. This study reports the comparative effectiveness of several forms of lifestyle modifications and found smoking cessation and yoga to be the most effective forms of cardiovascular disease prevention. Future research should focus on patient adherence to personalized therapies, cost-effectiveness of these strategies, and the potential for enhanced benefit when interventions are performed simultaneously rather than as single measures. © 2016 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley Blackwell.

Trends in absolute and relative educational inequalities in four modifiable ischaemic heart disease risk factors: repeated cross-sectional surveys from the Nord-Trøndelag Health Study (HUNT) 1984–2008

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background There has been an overall decrease in incident ischaemic heart disease (IHD), but the reduction in IHD risk factors has been greater among those with higher social position. Increased social inequalities in IHD mortality in Scandinavian countries is often referred to as the Scandinavian “public health puzzle”. The objective of this study was to examine trends in absolute and relative educational inequalities in four modifiable ischaemic heart disease risk factors (smoking, diabetes, hypertension and high total cholesterol) over the last three decades among Norwegian middle-aged women and men. Methods Population-based, cross-sectional data from The Nord-Trøndelag Health Study (HUNT): HUNT 1 (1984–1986), HUNT 2 (1995–1997) and HUNT 3 (2006–2008), women and men 40–59 years old. Educational inequalities were assessed using the Slope Index of Inequality (SII) and The Relative Index of Inequality (RII). Results Smoking prevalence increased for all education groups among women and decreased in men. Relative and absolute educational inequalities in smoking widened in both genders, with significantly higher absolute inequalities among women than men in the two last surveys. Diabetes prevalence increased in all groups. Relative inequalities in diabetes were stable, while absolute inequalities increased both among women (p = 0.05) and among men (p = 0.01). Hypertension prevalence decreased in all groups. Relative inequalities in hypertension widened over time in both genders. However, absolute inequalities in hypertension decreased among women (p = 0.05) and were stable among men (p = 0.33). For high total cholesterol relative and absolute inequalities remained stable in both genders. Conclusion Widening absolute educational inequalities in smoking and diabetes over the last three decades gives rise to concern. The mechanisms behind these results are less clear, and future studies are needed to assess if educational inequalities in secondary prevention of IHD are larger compared to educational inequalities in primary prevention of IHD. Continued monitoring of IHD risk factors at the population level is therefore warranted. The results emphasise the need for public health efforts to prevent future burdens of life-style-related diseases and to avoid further widening in socioeconomic inequalities in IHD mortality in Norway, especially among women. PMID:22471945

Falls in Scottish homicide: lessons for homicide reduction in mental health patients

PubMed Central

Crichton, John H. M.

2017-01-01

The sustained fall in Scottish homicide rates follows crime reduction measures informed by the epidemiology of suicide. The violence reduction unit targeted young men carrying knives in public. The restriction of weapons immediately to hand appears to have caused an absolute fall in homicide just as suicide reduction was observed following changes to domestic gas supply. Further homicide reduction may be accomplished in the domestic setting with targeted changes in kitchen knife design in home safety planning for high-risk households. Most commonly homicides involving those in recent contact with mental health services in the UK have domestic characteristics and similar safety planning may be targeted at those with mental disorder and a history of violence. PMID:28811910

Communicating cardiovascular disease risk: an interview study of General Practitioners’ use of absolute risk within tailored communication strategies

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention guidelines encourage assessment of absolute CVD risk - the probability of a CVD event within a fixed time period, based on the most predictive risk factors. However, few General Practitioners (GPs) use absolute CVD risk consistently, and communication difficulties have been identified as a barrier to changing practice. This study aimed to explore GPs’ descriptions of their CVD risk communication strategies, including the role of absolute risk. Methods Semi-structured interviews were conducted with a purposive sample of 25 GPs in New South Wales, Australia. Transcribed audio-recordings were thematically coded, using the Framework Analysis method to ensure rigour. Results GPs used absolute CVD risk within three different communication strategies: ‘positive’, ‘scare tactic’, and ‘indirect’. A ‘positive’ strategy, which aimed to reassure and motivate, was used for patients with low risk, determination to change lifestyle, and some concern about CVD risk. Absolute risk was used to show how they could reduce risk. A ‘scare tactic’ strategy was used for patients with high risk, lack of motivation, and a dismissive attitude. Absolute risk was used to ‘scare’ them into taking action. An ‘indirect’ strategy, where CVD risk was not the main focus, was used for patients with low risk but some lifestyle risk factors, high anxiety, high resistance to change, or difficulty understanding probabilities. Non-quantitative absolute risk formats were found to be helpful in these situations. Conclusions This study demonstrated how GPs use three different communication strategies to address the issue of CVD risk, depending on their perception of patient risk, motivation and anxiety. Absolute risk played a different role within each strategy. Providing GPs with alternative ways of explaining absolute risk, in order to achieve different communication aims, may improve their use of absolute CVD risk assessment in practice. PMID:24885409

Male osteoporosis: clinical approach and management in family practice

PubMed Central

Goh, Lay Hoon; How, Choon How; Lau, Tang Ching

2014-01-01

In Singapore, male osteoporosis is gaining greater importance due to our ageing population. Family physicians should screen for osteoporosis in elderly men and men with risk factors or secondary causes for the condition. A bone mineral density (BMD) test is used for diagnosis. FRAX® can be used to predict the absolute ten-year fracture risk. Management includes reduction of risk factors or secondary causes, fall prevention, appropriate physical activity and a diet adequate in calcium and vitamin D. Referrals to specialists for evaluation and therapy can be considered, particularly for younger men with more severe disease. Current first-line drug treatment includes bisphosphonates and teriparatide. Testosterone increases BMD of the spine, but data on fracture risk reduction is unavailable. Public and physician education with the involvement of health authorities can create greater awareness of this silent condition, which can lead to complications, morbidity and death, if left untreated. PMID:25091882

MORTALITY OF URGENCY VERSUS ELECTIVE VIDEOLAPAROSCOPIC CHOLECYSTECTOMY FOR ACUTE CHOLECYSTITIS.

PubMed

Felício, Saulo José Oliveira; Matos, Ediriomar Peixoto; Cerqueira, Antonio Maurício; Farias, Kurt Wolfgang Schindler Freire de; Silva, Ramon de Assis; Torres, Mateus de Oliveira

2017-01-01

Surgical approach is still controversial in patients with acute cholecystitis: to treat clinically the inflammatory process and operate electively later or to operate immediately on an emergency basis? To test the hypothesis that urgent laparoscopic cholecystectomy in acute cholecystitis has a higher mortality than elective laparoscopic cholecystectomy. From the data available in Datasus, mortality was compared between patients undergoing elective laparoscopic cholecystectomy for cholelithiasis and in urgency. Calculations were made of the relative reduction in risk of death, absolute reduction of risk of death and number needed to treat. From 2009 to 2014 in Brazil, there were 250.439 laparoscopic cholecystectomy and 74.6% were electives. Mortality in the emergency group was 4.8 times higher compared to the elective group (0.0023% vs. 0.00048%). Despite the relative reduction in risk of death (RRR) was 83%, in the calculation of absolute risk was found 0.0018 and number needed to treat of 55,555. Despite the relative risk reduction for mortality was high comparing elective vs. urgent basis, the absolute risk reduction was minimal, since this outcome is very low in both groups, suggesting that mortality should not have much influence on surgical decision. Continua controversa a conduta nos pacientes com colecistite aguda: compensar o processo inflamatório e operar eletivamente ou operar imediatamente em caráter de urgência? Testar a hipótese de que a colecistectomia videolaparoscópica de urgência por colecistite aguda apresenta maior mortalidade que a colecistectomia videolaparoscópica eletiva. A partir dos dados disponíveis no Datasus, foi comparada a mortalidade entre os pacientes submetidos à colecistectomia videolaparoscópica eletiva por colelitíase e a de urgência. Foram realizados cálculos da redução relativa de risco de morte, redução absoluta do risco de morte e número necessário para tratar . De 2009 a 2014 no Brasil, foram realizadas 250.439 colecistectomias videolaparoscópicas sendo 74,6% eletivas. A mortalidade no grupo de emergência foi 4,8 vezes mais elevada em comparação com o grupo eletivo (0,0023% vs. 0,00048%). Apesar da redução relativa do risco de morte (RRR) ser de 83%, no cálculo do risco absoluto encontrou-se 0,0018 e número necessário para tratar de 55.555. Apesar da redução relativa de risco para mortalidade ser alta comparando o caráter eletivo vs. urgência, a redução de risco absoluto é mínima, já que esse desfecho é muito baixo nos dois grupos, sugerindo que a mortalidade não deve ter muita influência na tomada de decisão cirúrgica.

A Comparative Evaluation of Normal Tissue Doses for Patients Receiving Radiation Therapy for Hodgkin Lymphoma on the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study and Recent Children's Oncology Group Trials

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhou, Rachel; Ng, Angela; Constine, Louis S.

Purpose: Survivors of pediatric Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) are recognized to have an increased risk of delayed adverse health outcomes related to radiation therapy (RT). However, the necessary latency required to observe these late effects means that the estimated risks apply to outdated treatments. We sought to compare the normal tissue dose received by children treated for HL and enrolled in the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study (CCSS) (diagnosed 1970-1986) with that of patients treated in recent Children's Oncology Group (COG) trials (enrolled 2002-2012). Methods and Materials: RT planning data were obtained for 50 HL survivors randomly sampled from the CCSS cohortmore » and applied to computed tomography planning data sets to reconstruct the normal tissue dosimetry. For comparison, the normal tissue dosimetry data were obtained for all 191 patients with full computed tomography–based volumetric RT planning on COG protocols AHOD0031 and AHOD0831. Results: For early-stage patients, the mean female breast dose in the COG patients was on average 83.5% lower than that for CCSS patients, with an absolute reduction of 15.5 Gy. For advanced-stage patients, the mean breast dose was decreased on average by 70% (11.6 Gy average absolute dose reduction). The mean heart dose decreased on average by 22.9 Gy (68.6%) and 17.6 Gy (56.8%) for early- and advanced-stage patients, respectively. All dose comparisons for breast, heart, lung, and thyroid were significantly lower for patients in the COG trials than for the CCSS participants. Reductions in the prescribed dose were a major contributor to these dose reductions. Conclusions: These are the first data quantifying the significant reduction in the normal tissue dose using actual, rather than hypothetical, treatment plans for children with HL. These findings provide useful information when counseling families regarding the risks of contemporary RT.« less

Thromboembolic Risk, Bleeding Outcomes and Effect of Different Antithrombotic Strategies in Very Elderly Patients With Atrial Fibrillation: A Sub-Analysis From the PREFER in AF (PREvention oF Thromboembolic Events-European Registry in Atrial Fibrillation).

PubMed

Patti, Giuseppe; Lucerna, Markus; Pecen, Ladislav; Siller-Matula, Jolanta M; Cavallari, Ilaria; Kirchhof, Paulus; De Caterina, Raffaele

2017-07-23

Increasing age predisposes to both thromboembolic and bleeding events in patients with atrial fibrillation; therefore, balancing risks and benefits of antithrombotic strategies in older populations is crucial. We investigated 1-year outcome with different antithrombotic approaches in very elderly atrial fibrillation patients (age ≥85 years) compared with younger patients. We accessed individual patients' data from the prospective PREFER in AF (PREvention oF thromboembolic events-European Registry in Atrial Fibrillation), compared outcomes with and without oral anticoagulation (OAC), and estimated weighed net clinical benefit in different age groups. A total of 6412 patients, 505 of whom were aged ≥85 years, were analyzed. In patients aged <85 years, the incidence of thromboembolic events was 2.8%/year without OAC versus 2.3%/year with OAC (0.5% absolute reduction); in patients aged ≥85 years, it was 6.3%/year versus 4.3%/year (2% absolute reduction). In very elderly patients, the risk of major bleeding was higher than in younger patients, but similar in patients on OAC and in those on antiplatelet therapy or without antithrombotic treatment (4.0%/year versus 4.2%/year; P =0.77). OAC was overall associated with weighted net clinical benefit, assigning weights to nonfatal events according to their prognostic implication for subsequent death (-2.19%; CI, -4.23%, -0.15%; P =0.036). We found a significant gradient of this benefit as a function of age, with the oldest patients deriving the highest benefit. Because the risk of stroke increases with age more than the risk of bleeding, the absolute benefit of OAC is highest in very elderly patients, where it, by far, outweighs the risk of bleeding, with the greatest net clinical benefit in such patients. © 2017 The Authors and Daiichi Sankyo Europe GmbH. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

Radical Prostatectomy versus Observation for Localized Prostate Cancer

PubMed Central

Wilt, Timothy J.; Brawer, Michael K.; Jones, Karen M.; Barry, Michael J.; Aronson, William J.; Fox, Steven; Gingrich, Jeffrey R.; Wei, John T.; Gilhooly, Patricia; Grob, B. Mayer; Nsouli, Imad; Iyer, Padmini; Cartagena, Ruben; Snider, Glenn; Roehrborn, Claus; Sharifi, Roohollah; Blank, William; Pandya, Parikshit; Andriole, Gerald L.; Culkin, Daniel; Wheeler, Thomas

2012-01-01

BACKGROUND The effectiveness of surgery versus observation for men with localized prostate cancer detected by means of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing is not known. METHODS From November 1994 through January 2002, we randomly assigned 731 men with localized prostate cancer (mean age, 67 years; median PSA value, 7.8 ng per milliliter) to radical prostatectomy or observation and followed them through January 2010. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality; the secondary outcome was prostate-cancer mortality. RESULTS During the median follow-up of 10.0 years, 171 of 364 men (47.0%) assigned to radical prostatectomy died, as compared with 183 of 367 (49.9%) assigned to observation (hazard ratio, 0.88; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.71 to 1.08; P = 0.22; absolute risk reduction, 2.9 percentage points). Among men assigned to radical prostatectomy, 21 (5.8%) died from prostate cancer or treatment, as compared with 31 men (8.4%) assigned to observation (hazard ratio, 0.63; 95% CI, 0.36 to 1.09; P = 0.09; absolute risk reduction, 2.6 percentage points). The effect of treatment on all-cause and prostate-cancer mortality did not differ according to age, race, coexisting conditions, self-reported performance status, or histologic features of the tumor. Radical prostatectomy was associated with reduced all-cause mortality among men with a PSA value greater than 10 ng per milliliter (P = 0.04 for interaction) and possibly among those with intermediate-risk or high-risk tumors (P = 0.07 for interaction). Adverse events within 30 days after surgery occurred in 21.4% of men, including one death. CONCLUSIONS Among men with localized prostate cancer detected during the early era of PSA testing, radical prostatectomy did not significantly reduce all-cause or prostate-cancer mortality, as compared with observation, through at least 12 years of follow-up. Absolute differences were less than 3 percentage points. (Funded by the Department of Veterans Affairs Cooperative Studies Program and others; PIVOT ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00007644.) PMID:22808955

Evidence-Based Carotid Interventions for Stroke Prevention: State-of-the-art Review

PubMed Central

Morris, Dylan R.; Ayabe, Kengo; Inoue, Takashi; Sakai, Nobuyuki; Bulbulia, Richard; Halliday, Alison

2017-01-01

Carotid artery stenosis is responsible for between 10–20% of all ischaemic strokes. Interventions, such as carotid end-arterectomy and carotid stenting, effectively reduce the risk of stroke in selected individuals. This review describes the history of carotid interventions, and summarises reliable evidence on the safety and efficacy of these interventions gained from large randomised clinical trials. Early trials comparing carotid endarterectomy to medical therapy alone in symptomatic patients, and asymptomatic patients, demonstrated that endarterectomy halved the risk of stroke and perioperative death in these two unique populations. The absolute risk reduction was smaller in the asymptomatic carotid trials, consistent with their lower absolute stroke risk. More recent trials in symptomatic patients, suggest that carotid stenting has similar long term durability to carotid endarterectomy, but possibly has higher procedural hazards dominated by non-disabling strokes. The Asymptomatic Carotid Surgery Trial-2, along with individual patient data meta-analysis of all asymptomatic trials, will provide reliable evidence for the choice of intervention in asymptomatic patients in whom a decision has been made for carotid revascularisation. Given improvements in effective cardiovascular medical therapy, in particular lipid-lowering medications, there is renewed uncertainty as to whether carotid interventions still provide meaningful net reductions in stroke risk in asymptomatic populations. Four large trials in Europe and the US are currently underway, and are expected to report longterm results in the next decade. It is essential that surgeons, interventionalists, and physicians continue to randomise large numbers of patients from around the world to clarify current uncertainty around the management of asymptomatic carotid stenosis. PMID:28260723

Coronary heart disease risk in patients with stroke or transient ischemic attack and no known coronary heart disease: findings from the Stroke Prevention by Aggressive Reduction in Cholesterol Levels (SPARCL) trial.

PubMed

Amarenco, Pierre; Goldstein, Larry B; Sillesen, Henrik; Benavente, Oscar; Zweifler, Richard M; Callahan, Alfred; Hennerici, Michael G; Zivin, Justin A; Welch, K Michael A

2010-03-01

Noncoronary forms of atherosclerosis (including transient ischemic attacks or stroke of carotid origin or >50% stenosis of the carotid artery) are associated with a 10-year vascular risk of >20% and are considered as a coronary heart disease (CHD) -risk equivalent from the standpoint of lipid management. The Stroke Prevention by Aggressive Reduction in Cholesterol Levels (SPARCL) trial included patients with stroke or transient ischemic attack and no known CHD regardless of the presence of carotid atherosclerosis. We evaluated the risk of developing clinically recognized CHD in SPARCL patients. A total of 4731 patients (mean age, 63 years) was randomized to 80 mg/day atorvastatin placebo. The rates of major coronary event, any CHD event, and any revascularization procedure were evaluated. After 4.9 years of follow-up, the risks of a major coronary event and of any CHD end point in the placebo group were 5.1% and 8.6%, respectively. The rate of outcome of stroke decreased over time, whereas the major coronary event rate was stable. Relative to those having a large vessel-related stroke at baseline, those having a transient ischemic attack, hemorrhagic stroke, small vessel stroke, or a stroke of unknown cause had similar absolute rates for a first major coronary event and for any CHD event; transient ischemic attack, small vessel, and unknown cause groups had lower absolute revascularization procedure rates. Major coronary event, any CHD event, and any revascularization procedure rates were similarly reduced in all baseline stroke subtypes in the atorvastatin arm compared with placebo with no heterogeneity between groups. CHD risk can be substantially reduced by atorvastatin therapy in patients with recent stroke or transient ischemic attack regardless of stroke subtype.

Homocysteine levels and treatment effect in the PROspective Study of Pravastatin in the Elderly at Risk.

PubMed

Drewes, Yvonne M; Poortvliet, Rosalinde K E; Blom, Jeanet W; de Ruijter, Wouter; Westendorp, Rudi G J; Stott, David J; Blom, Henk J; Ford, Ian; Sattar, Naveed; Wouter Jukema, J; Assendelft, Willem J J; de Craen, Anton J M; Gussekloo, Jacobijn

2014-02-01

To assess the effect of preventive pravastatin treatment on coronary heart disease (CHD) morbidity and mortality in older persons at risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD), stratified according to plasma levels of homocysteine. A post hoc subanalysis in the PROspective Study of Pravastatin in the Elderly at Risk (PROSPER), started in 1997, which is a double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled trial with a mean follow-up of 3.2 years. Primary care setting in two of the three PROSPER study sites (Netherlands and Scotland). Individuals (n = 3,522, aged 70-82, 1,765 male) with a history of or risk factors for CVD were ranked in three groups depending on baseline homocysteine level, sex, and study site. Pravastatin (40 mg) versus placebo. Fatal and nonfatal CHD and mortality. In the placebo group, participants with a high homocysteine level (n = 588) had a 1.8 higher risk (95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.2-2.5, P = .001) of fatal and nonfatal CHD than those with a low homocysteine level (n = 597). The absolute risk reduction in fatal and nonfatal CHD with pravastatin treatment was 1.6% (95% CI = -1.6 to 4.7%) in the low homocysteine group and 6.7% (95% CI = 2.7-10.7%) in the high homocysteine group (difference 5.2%, 95% CI = 0.11-10.3, P = .046). Therefore, the number needed to treat (NNT) with pravastatin for 3.2 years for benefit related to fatal and nonfatal CHD events was 14.8 (95% CI = 9.3-36.6) for high homocysteine and 64.5 (95% CI = 21.4-∞) for low homocysteine. In older persons at risk of CVD, those with high homocysteine are at highest risk for fatal and nonfatal CHD. With pravastatin treatment, this group has the highest absolute risk reduction and the lowest NNT to prevent fatal and nonfatal CHD. © 2014, Copyright the Authors. Journal compilation © 2014, The American Geriatrics Society.

Daily remote monitoring of implantable cardioverter-defibrillators: insights from the pooled patient-level data from three randomized controlled trials (IN-TIME, ECOST, TRUST).

PubMed

Hindricks, Gerhard; Varma, Niraj; Kacet, Salem; Lewalter, Thorsten; Søgaard, Peter; Guédon-Moreau, Laurence; Proff, Jochen; Gerds, Thomas A; Anker, Stefan D; Torp-Pedersen, Christian

2017-06-07

Remote monitoring of implantable cardioverter-defibrillators may improve clinical outcome. A recent meta-analysis of three randomized controlled trials (TRUST, ECOST, IN-TIME) using a specific remote monitoring system with daily transmissions [Biotronik Home Monitoring (HM)] demonstrated improved survival. We performed a patient-level analysis to verify this result with appropriate time-to-event statistics and to investigate further clinical endpoints. Individual data of the TRUST, ECOST, and IN-TIME patients were pooled to calculate absolute risks of endpoints at 1-year follow-up for HM vs. conventional follow-up. All-cause mortality analysis involved all three trials (2405 patients). Other endpoints involved two trials, ECOST and IN-TIME (1078 patients), in which an independent blinded endpoint committee adjudicated the underlying causes of hospitalizations and deaths. The absolute risk of death at 1 year was reduced by 1.9% in the HM group (95% CI: 0.1-3.8%; P = 0.037), equivalent to a risk ratio of 0.62. Also the combined endpoint of all-cause mortality or hospitalization for worsening heart failure (WHF) was significantly reduced (by 5.6%; P = 0.007; risk ratio 0.64). The composite endpoint of all-cause mortality or cardiovascular (CV) hospitalization tended to be reduced by a similar degree (4.1%; P = 0.13; risk ratio 0.85) but without statistical significance. In a pooled analysis of the three trials, HM reduced all-cause mortality and the composite endpoint of all-cause mortality or WHF hospitalization. The similar magnitudes of absolute risk reductions for WHF and CV endpoints suggest that the benefit of HM is driven by the prevention of heart failure exacerbation.

Mesalazine for the Treatment of Symptomatic Uncomplicated Diverticular Disease of the Colon and for Primary Prevention of Diverticulitis: A Systematic Review of Randomized Clinical Trials.

PubMed

Picchio, Marcello; Elisei, Walter; Brandimarte, Giovanni; Di Mario, Francesco; Malfertheiner, Peter; Scarpignato, Carmelo; Tursi, Antonio

2016-10-01

Symptomatic uncomplicated diverticular disease (SUDD) is a common gastrointestinal disease, because it affects about one fourth of the patient harboring colonic diverticula. To assess the effectiveness of mesalazine in improving symptoms (namely abdominal pain) and in preventing diverticulitis occurrence in patients with SUDD. Only randomized clinical trials (irrespective of language, blinding, or publication status) that compared mesalazine with placebo or any other therapy in SUDD were evaluated. The selected endpoints were symptom relief and diverticulitis occurrence at maximal follow-up. Absolute risk reduction (ARR, with 95% confidence interval) and the number needed to treat were used as measures of the therapeutic effect. Six randomized clinical trials enrolled 1021 patients: 526 patients were treated with mesalazine and 495 with placebo or other therapies. Symptom relief with mesalazine was always larger than that with placebo and other therapies. However, absolute risk reduction was significant only when mesalazine was compared with placebo, a high-fiber diet, and low-dose rifaximin. The incidence of diverticulitis with mesalazine was lower than that observed with placebo and other treatments, being significant only when compared with placebo. Mesalazine is effective in achieving symptom relief and primary prevention of diverticulitis in patients with SUDD.

Quantifying the individual-level association between income and mortality risk in the United States using the National Longitudinal Mortality Study.

PubMed

Brodish, Paul Henry; Hakes, Jahn K

2016-12-01

Policy makers would benefit from being able to estimate the likely impact of potential interventions to reverse the effects of rapidly rising income inequality on mortality rates. Using multiple cohorts of the National Longitudinal Mortality Study (NLMS), we estimate the absolute income effect on premature mortality in the United States. A multivariate Poisson regression using the natural logarithm of equivilized household income establishes the magnitude of the absolute income effect on mortality. We calculate mortality rates for each income decile of the study sample and mortality rate ratios relative to the decile containing mean income. We then apply the estimated income effect to two kinds of hypothetical interventions that would redistribute income. The first lifts everyone with an equivalized household income at or below the U.S. poverty line (in 2000$) out of poverty, to the income category just above the poverty line. The second shifts each family's equivalized income by, in turn, 10%, 20%, 30%, or 40% toward the mean household income, equivalent to reducing the Gini coefficient by the same percentage in each scenario. We also assess mortality disparities of the hypothetical interventions using ratios of mortality rates of the ninth and second income deciles, and test sensitivity to the assumption of causality of income on mortality by halving the mortality effect per unit of equivalized household income. The estimated absolute income effect would produce a three to four percent reduction in mortality for a 10% reduction in the Gini coefficient. Larger mortality reductions result from larger reductions in the Gini, but with diminishing returns. Inequalities in estimated mortality rates are reduced by a larger percentage than overall estimated mortality rates under the same hypothetical redistributions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk and treatment effect heterogeneity: re-analysis of individual participant data from 32 large clinical trials

PubMed Central

Kent, David M; Nelson, Jason; Dahabreh, Issa J; Rothwell, Peter M; Altman, Douglas G; Hayward, Rodney A

2016-01-01

Abstract Background: Risk of the outcome is a mathematical determinant of the absolute treatment benefit of an intervention, yet this can vary substantially within a trial population, complicating the interpretation of trial results. Methods: We developed risk models using Cox or logistic regression on a set of large publicly available randomized controlled trials (RCTs). We evaluated risk heterogeneity using the extreme quartile risk ratio (EQRR, the ratio of outcome rates in the lowest risk quartile to that in the highest) and skewness using the median to mean risk ratio (MMRR, the ratio of risk in the median risk patient to the average). We also examined heterogeneity of treatment effects (HTE) across risk strata. Results: We describe 39 analyses using data from 32 large trials, with event rates across studies ranging from 3% to 63% (median = 15%, 25th–75th percentile = 9–29%). C-statistics of risk models ranged from 0.59 to 0.89 (median = 0.70, 25th–75th percentile = 0.65–0.71). The EQRR ranged from 1.8 to 50.7 (median = 4.3, 25th–75th percentile = 3.0–6.1). The MMRR ranged from 0.4 to 1.0 (median = 0.86, 25th–75th percentile = 0.80–0.92). EQRRs were predictably higher and MMRRs predictably lower as the c-statistic increased or the overall outcome incidence decreased. Among 18 comparisons with a significant overall treatment effect, there was a significant interaction between treatment and baseline risk on the proportional scale in only one. The difference in the absolute risk reduction between extreme risk quartiles ranged from −3.2 to 28.3% (median = 5.1%; 25th–75th percentile = 0.3–10.9). Conclusions: There is typically substantial variation in outcome risk in clinical trials, commonly leading to clinically significant differences in absolute treatment effects. Most patients have outcome risks lower than the trial average reflected in the summary result. Risk-stratified trial analyses are feasible and may be clinically informative, particularly when the outcome is predictable and uncommon. PMID:27375287

Optimizing Preseason Training Loads in Australian Football.

PubMed

Carey, David L; Crow, Justin; Ong, Kok-Leong; Blanch, Peter; Morris, Meg E; Dascombe, Ben J; Crossley, Kay M

2018-02-01

To investigate whether preseason training plans for Australian football can be computer generated using current training-load guidelines to optimize injury-risk reduction and performance improvement. A constrained optimization problem was defined for daily total and sprint distance, using the preseason schedule of an elite Australian football team as a template. Maximizing total training volume and maximizing Banister-model-projected performance were both considered optimization objectives. Cumulative workload and acute:chronic workload-ratio constraints were placed on training programs to reflect current guidelines on relative and absolute training loads for injury-risk reduction. Optimization software was then used to generate preseason training plans. The optimization framework was able to generate training plans that satisfied relative and absolute workload constraints. Increasing the off-season chronic training loads enabled the optimization algorithm to prescribe higher amounts of "safe" training and attain higher projected performance levels. Simulations showed that using a Banister-model objective led to plans that included a taper in training load prior to competition to minimize fatigue and maximize projected performance. In contrast, when the objective was to maximize total training volume, more frequent training was prescribed to accumulate as much load as possible. Feasible training plans that maximize projected performance and satisfy injury-risk constraints can be automatically generated by an optimization problem for Australian football. The optimization methods allow for individualized training-plan design and the ability to adapt to changing training objectives and different training-load metrics.

Joint and separate evaluation of risk reduction: impact on sensitivity to risk reduction magnitude in the context of 4 different risk information formats.

PubMed

Gyrd-Hansen, Dorte; Halvorsen, Peder; Nexøe, Jørgen; Nielsen, Jesper; Støvring, Henrik; Kristiansen, Ivar

2011-01-01

When people make choices, they may have multiple options presented simultaneously or, alternatively, have options presented 1 at a time. It has been shown that if decision makers have little experience with or difficulties in understanding certain attributes, these attributes will have greater impact in joint evaluations than in separate evaluations. The authors investigated the impact of separate versus joint evaluations in a health care context in which laypeople were presented with the possibility of participating in risk-reducing drug therapies. In a randomized study comprising 895 subjects aged 40 to 59 y in Odense, Denmark, subjects were randomized to receive information in terms of absolute risk reduction (ARR), relative risk reduction (RRR), number needed to treat (NNT), or prolongation of life (POL), all with respect to heart attack, and they were asked whether they would be willing to receive a specified treatment. Respondents were randomly allocated to valuing the interventions separately (either great effect or small effect) or jointly (small effect and large effect). Joint evaluation reduced the propensity to accept the intervention that offered the smallest effect. Respondents were more sensitive to scale when faced with a joint evaluation for information formats ARR, RRR, and POL but not for NNT. Evaluability bias appeared to be most pronounced for POL and ARR. Risk information appears to be prone to evaluability bias. This suggests that numeric information on health gains is difficult to evaluate in isolation. Consequently, such information may bear too little weight in separate evaluations of risk-reducing interventions.

Do doctors accurately assess coronary risk in their patients? Preliminary results of the coronary health assessment study.

PubMed Central

Grover, S. A.; Lowensteyn, I.; Esrey, K. L.; Steinert, Y.; Joseph, L.; Abrahamowicz, M.

1995-01-01

OBJECTIVE--To evaluate the ability of doctors in primary care to assess risk patients' risk of coronary heart disease. DESIGN--Questionnaire survey. SETTING--Continuing medical education meetings, Ontario and Quebec, Canada. SUBJECTS--Community based doctors who agreed to enroll in the coronary health assessment study. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE--Ratings of coronary risk factors and estimates by doctors of relative and absolute coronary risk of two hypothetical patients and the "average" 40 year old Canadian man and 70 year old Canadian woman. RESULTS--253 doctors answered the questionnaire. For 30 year olds the doctors rated cigarette smoking as the most important risk factor and raised serum triglyceride concentrations as the least important; for 70 year old patients they rated diabetes as the most important risk factor and raised serum triglyceride concentrations as the least important. They rated each individual risk factor as significantly less important for 70 year olds than for 30 year olds (all risk factors, P < 0.001). They showed a strong understanding of the relative importance of specific risk factors, and most were confident in their ability to estimate coronary risk. While doctors accurately estimated the relative risk of a specific patient (compared with the average adult) they systematically overestimated the absolute baseline risk of developing coronary disease and the risk reductions associated with specific interventions. CONCLUSIONS--Despite guidelines on targeting patients at high risk of coronary disease accurate assessment of coronary risk remains difficult for many doctors. Additional strategies must be developed to help doctors to assess better their patients' coronary risk. PMID:7728035

Ratio measures in leading medical journals: structured review of accessibility of underlying absolute risks

PubMed Central

Schwartz, Lisa M; Dvorin, Evan L; Welch, H Gilbert

2006-01-01

Objective To examine the accessibility of absolute risk in articles reporting ratio measures in leading medical journals. Design Structured review of abstracts presenting ratio measures. Setting Articles published between 1 June 2003 and 1 May 2004 in Annals of Internal Medicine, BMJ, Journal of the American Medical Association, Journal of the National Cancer Institute, Lancet, and New England Journal of Medicine. Participants 222 articles based on study designs in which absolute risks were directly calculable (61 randomised trials, 161 cohort studies). Main outcome measure Accessibility of the absolute risks underlying the first ratio measure in the abstract. Results 68% of articles (150/222) failed to report the underlying absolute risks for the first ratio measure in the abstract (range 55−81% across the journals). Among these articles, about half did report the underlying absolute risks elsewhere in the article (text, table, or figure) but half did not report them anywhere. Absolute risks were more likely to be reported in the abstract for randomised trials compared with cohort studies (62% v 21%; relative risk 3.0, 95% confidence interval 2.1 to 4.2) and for studies reporting crude compared with adjusted ratio measures (62% v 21%; relative risk 3.0, 2.1 to 4.3). Conclusion Absolute risks are often not easily accessible in articles reporting ratio measures and sometimes are missing altogether—this lack of accessibility can easily exaggerate readers' perceptions of benefit or harm. PMID:17060338

Meta-analysis: antithrombotic therapy to prevent stroke in patients who have nonvalvular atrial fibrillation.

PubMed

Hart, Robert G; Pearce, Lesly A; Aguilar, Maria I

2007-06-19

Atrial fibrillation is a strong independent risk factor for stroke. To characterize the efficacy and safety of antithrombotic agents for stroke prevention in patients who have atrial fibrillation, adding 13 recent randomized trials to a previous meta-analysis. Randomized trials identified by using the Cochrane Stroke Group search strategy, 1966 to March 2007, unrestricted by language. All published randomized trials with a mean follow-up of 3 months or longer that tested antithrombotic agents in patients who have nonvalvular atrial fibrillation. Two coauthors independently extracted information regarding interventions; participants; and occurrences of ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke, major extracranial bleeding, and death. Twenty-nine trials included 28,044 participants (mean age, 71 years; mean follow-up, 1.5 years). Compared with the control, adjusted-dose warfarin (6 trials, 2900 participants) and antiplatelet agents (8 trials, 4876 participants) reduced stroke by 64% (95% CI, 49% to 74%) and 22% (CI, 6% to 35%), respectively. Adjusted-dose warfarin was substantially more efficacious than antiplatelet therapy (relative risk reduction, 39% [CI, 22% to 52%]) (12 trials, 12 963 participants). Other randomized comparisons were inconclusive. Absolute increases in major extracranial hemorrhage were small (< or =0.3% per year) on the basis of meta-analysis. Methodological features and quality varied substantially and often were incompletely reported. Adjusted-dose warfarin and antiplatelet agents reduce stroke by approximately 60% and by approximately 20%, respectively, in patients who have atrial fibrillation. Warfarin is substantially more efficacious (by approximately 40%) than antiplatelet therapy. Absolute increases in major extracranial hemorrhage associated with antithrombotic therapy in participants from the trials included in this meta-analysis were less than the absolute reductions in stroke. Judicious use of antithrombotic therapy importantly reduces stroke for most patients who have atrial fibrillation.

Effect of eprosartan-based antihypertensive therapy on coronary heart disease risk assessed by Framingham methodology in Canadian patients: results of the POWER survey

PubMed Central

Petrella, Robert J; Tremblay, Guy; De Backer, Guy; Gill, Dawn P

2014-01-01

Purpose/introduction The Canadian Hypertension Education Program (CHEP) has identified blood pressure (BP) control as a key target for an overall reduction in cardiovascular disease risk. The POWER survey (Physicians’ Observational Work on Patient Education According to their Vascular Risk) used Framingham methodology to investigate the impact of an angiotensin-receptor-blocker-based regimen on arterial BP and total coronary heart disease (CHD) risk in a subset of patients recruited in Canada. Methods 309 Canadian practices screened for patients with either newly diagnosed or uncontrolled mild/moderate hypertension (sitting systolic blood pressure [SBP] >140 mmHg with diastolic blood pressure [DBP] <110 mmHg). Treatment comprised eprosartan 600 mg/day with add-on antihypertensive therapy after 1 month if required. The primary efficacy variable was change in SBP at 6 months; the secondary variable was the absolute change in the Framingham 10-year CHD risk score. Results 1,385 patients were identified, of whom 1,114 were included in the intention-to-treat (ITT) cohort. Thirty-eight point four percent of ITT patients were managed with monotherapy at 6 months, versus 35.2% and 13.7% with two-drug or multiple-drug therapy, respectively. SBP in the ITT cohort declined 22.4 (standard deviation [SD] 14.8) mmHg and DBP declined 10.5 (SD 10.3) mmHg during that time. The absolute mean Framingham score declined 2.1 (SD 3.1) points with significant age and sex variation (P<0.001) and differences between the various Framingham methods used. Discussion/conclusion Primary care physicians were able to use a strategy of BP lowering and CHD risk assessment to achieve significant reductions in BP and Framingham-assessed CHD risk. The effect size estimate of the different Framingham methods varied noticeably; reasons for those differences warrant further investigation. PMID:24493928

Blood pressure-lowering treatment based on cardiovascular risk: a meta-analysis of individual patient data.

PubMed

2014-08-16

We aimed to investigate whether the benefits of blood pressure-lowering drugs are proportional to baseline cardiovascular risk, to establish whether absolute risk could be used to inform treatment decisions for blood pressure-lowering therapy, as is recommended for lipid-lowering therapy. This meta-analysis included individual participant data from trials that randomly assigned patients to either blood pressure-lowering drugs or placebo, or to more intensive or less intensive blood pressure-lowering regimens. The primary outcome was total major cardiovascular events, consisting of stroke, heart attack, heart failure, or cardiovascular death. Participants were separated into four categories of baseline 5-year major cardiovascular risk using a risk prediction equation developed from the placebo groups of the included trials (<11%, 11-15%, 15-21%, >21%). 11 trials and 26 randomised groups met the inclusion criteria, and included 67,475 individuals, of whom 51,917 had available data for the calculation of the risk equations. 4167 (8%) had a cardiovascular event during a median of 4·0 years (IQR 3·4-4·4) of follow-up. The mean estimated baseline levels of 5-year cardiovascular risk for each of the four risk groups were 6·0% (SD 2·0), 12·1% (1·5), 17·7% (1·7), and 26·8% (5·4). In each consecutive higher risk group, blood pressure-lowering treatment reduced the risk of cardiovascular events relatively by 18% (95% CI 7-27), 15% (4-25), 13% (2-22), and 15% (5-24), respectively (p=0·30 for trend). However, in absolute terms, treating 1000 patients in each group with blood pressure-lowering treatment for 5 years would prevent 14 (95% CI 8-21), 20 (8-31), 24 (8-40), and 38 (16-61) cardiovascular events, respectively (p=0·04 for trend). Lowering blood pressure provides similar relative protection at all levels of baseline cardiovascular risk, but progressively greater absolute risk reductions as baseline risk increases. These results support the use of predicted baseline cardiovascular disease risk equations to inform blood pressure-lowering treatment decisions. None. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Relevance of breast cancer hormone receptors and other factors to the efficacy of adjuvant tamoxifen: patient-level meta-analysis of randomised trials.

PubMed

Davies, C; Godwin, J; Gray, R; Clarke, M; Cutter, D; Darby, S; McGale, P; Pan, H C; Taylor, C; Wang, Y C; Dowsett, M; Ingle, J; Peto, R

2011-08-27

As trials of 5 years of tamoxifen in early breast cancer mature, the relevance of hormone receptor measurements (and other patient characteristics) to long-term outcome can be assessed increasingly reliably. We report updated meta-analyses of the trials of 5 years of adjuvant tamoxifen. We undertook a collaborative meta-analysis of individual patient data from 20 trials (n=21,457) in early breast cancer of about 5 years of tamoxifen versus no adjuvant tamoxifen, with about 80% compliance. Recurrence and death rate ratios (RRs) were from log-rank analyses by allocated treatment. In oestrogen receptor (ER)-positive disease (n=10,645), allocation to about 5 years of tamoxifen substantially reduced recurrence rates throughout the first 10 years (RR 0·53 [SE 0·03] during years 0-4 and RR 0·68 [0·06] during years 5-9 [both 2p<0·00001]; but RR 0·97 [0·10] during years 10-14, suggesting no further gain or loss after year 10). Even in marginally ER-positive disease (10-19 fmol/mg cytosol protein) the recurrence reduction was substantial (RR 0·67 [0·08]). In ER-positive disease, the RR was approximately independent of progesterone receptor status (or level), age, nodal status, or use of chemotherapy. Breast cancer mortality was reduced by about a third throughout the first 15 years (RR 0·71 [0·05] during years 0-4, 0·66 [0·05] during years 5-9, and 0·68 [0·08] during years 10-14; p<0·0001 for extra mortality reduction during each separate time period). Overall non-breast-cancer mortality was little affected, despite small absolute increases in thromboembolic and uterine cancer mortality (both only in women older than 55 years), so all-cause mortality was substantially reduced. In ER-negative disease, tamoxifen had little or no effect on breast cancer recurrence or mortality. 5 years of adjuvant tamoxifen safely reduces 15-year risks of breast cancer recurrence and death. ER status was the only recorded factor importantly predictive of the proportional reductions. Hence, the absolute risk reductions produced by tamoxifen depend on the absolute breast cancer risks (after any chemotherapy) without tamoxifen. Cancer Research UK, British Heart Foundation, and Medical Research Council. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The gender- and age-specific 10-year and lifetime absolute fracture risk in Tromsø, Norway.

PubMed

Ahmed, Luai A; Schirmer, Henrik; Bjørnerem, Ashild; Emaus, Nina; Jørgensen, Lone; Størmer, Jan; Joakimsen, Ragnar M

2009-01-01

Aim of this study is to estimate the gender- and age-specific 10-year and lifetime absolute risks of non-vertebral and osteoporotic (included hip, distal forearm and proximal humerus) fractures in a large cohort of men and women. This is a population-based 10 years follow-up study of 26,891 subjects aged 25 years and older in Tromsø, Norway. All non-vertebral fractures were registered from 1995 throughout 2004 by computerized search in radiographic archives. Absolute risks were estimated by life-table method taking into account the competing risk of death. The absolute fracture risk at each year of age was estimated for the next 10 years (10-year risk) or up to the age of 90 years (lifetime risk). The estimated 10-year absolute risk of all non-vertebral fracture was higher in men than women before but not after the age of 45 years. The 10-year absolute risk for non-vertebral and osteoporotic fractures was over 10%, respectively, in men over 65 and 70 years and in women over 45 and 50 years of age. The 10-year absolute risks of hip fractures at the age of 65 and 80 years were 4.2 and 18.6% in men, and 9.0 and 24.0% in women, respectively. The risk estimates for distal forearm and proximal humerus fractures were under 5% in men and 13% in women. The estimated lifetime risks for all fracture locations were higher in women than men at all ages. At the age of 50 years, the risks were 38.1 and 24.8% in men and 67.4 and 55.0% in women for all non-vertebral and osteoporotic fractures, respectively. The estimated gender- and age-specific 10-year and lifetime absolute fracture risk were higher in Tromsø than in other populations. The high lifetime fracture risk reflects the increased burden of fractures in this cohort.

Vitamin D analogues to target residual proteinuria: potential impact on cardiorenal outcomes

PubMed Central

Humalda, Jelmer K.; Goldsmith, David J. A.; Thadhani, Ravi; de Borst, Martin H.

2015-01-01

Residual proteinuria, the amount of proteinuria that remains during optimally dosed renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system (RAAS) blockade, is an independent risk factor for progressive renal function loss and cardiovascular complications in chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients. Dual RAAS blockade may reduce residual proteinuria but without translating into improved cardiorenal outcomes at least in diabetic nephropathy; rather, dual RAAS blockade may increase the risk of adverse events. These findings have challenged the concept of residual proteinuria as an absolute treatment target. Therefore, new strategies must be explored to address whether by further reduction of residual proteinuria using interventions not primarily targeting the RAAS benefit in terms of cardiorenal risk reduction would accrue. Both clinical and experimental intervention studies have demonstrated that vitamin D can reduce residual proteinuria through both RAAS-dependent and RAAS-independent pathways. Future research should prospectively explore vitamin D treatment as an adjunct to RAAS blockade in an interventional trial exploring clinically relevant cardiorenal end points. PMID:25609737

Population-based absolute risk estimation with survey data

PubMed Central

Kovalchik, Stephanie A.; Pfeiffer, Ruth M.

2013-01-01

Absolute risk is the probability that a cause-specific event occurs in a given time interval in the presence of competing events. We present methods to estimate population-based absolute risk from a complex survey cohort that can accommodate multiple exposure-specific competing risks. The hazard function for each event type consists of an individualized relative risk multiplied by a baseline hazard function, which is modeled nonparametrically or parametrically with a piecewise exponential model. An influence method is used to derive a Taylor-linearized variance estimate for the absolute risk estimates. We introduce novel measures of the cause-specific influences that can guide modeling choices for the competing event components of the model. To illustrate our methodology, we build and validate cause-specific absolute risk models for cardiovascular and cancer deaths using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Our applications demonstrate the usefulness of survey-based risk prediction models for predicting health outcomes and quantifying the potential impact of disease prevention programs at the population level. PMID:23686614

The effectiveness of avalanche airbags.

PubMed

Haegeli, Pascal; Falk, Markus; Procter, Emily; Zweifel, Benjamin; Jarry, Frédéric; Logan, Spencer; Kronholm, Kalle; Biskupič, Marek; Brugger, Hermann

2014-09-01

Asphyxia is the primary cause of death among avalanche victims. Avalanche airbags can lower mortality by directly reducing grade of burial, the single most important factor for survival. This study aims to provide an updated perspective on the effectiveness of this safety device. A retrospective analysis of avalanche accidents involving at least one airbag user between 1994 and 2012 in Austria, Canada, France, Norway, Slovakia, Switzerland and the United States. A multivariate analysis was used to calculate adjusted absolute risk reduction and estimate the effectiveness of airbags on grade of burial and mortality. A univariate analysis was used to examine causes of non-deployment. Binomial linear regression models showed main effects for airbag use, avalanche size and injuries on critical burial, and for grade of burial, injuries and avalanche size on mortality. The adjusted risk of critical burial is 47% with non-inflated airbags and 20% with inflated airbags. The adjusted mortality is 44% for critically buried victims and 3% for non-critically buried victims. The adjusted absolute mortality reduction for inflated airbags is -11 percentage points (22% to 11%; 95% confidence interval: -4 to -18 percentage points) and adjusted risk ratio is 0.51 (95% confidence interval: 0.29 to 0.72). Overall non-inflation rate is 20%, 60% of which is attributed to deployment failure by the user. Although the impact on survival is smaller than previously reported, these results confirm the effectiveness of airbags. Non-deployment remains the most considerable limitation to effectiveness. Development of standardized data collection protocols is encouraged to facilitate further research. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk communication methods in hip fracture prevention: a randomised trial in primary care.

PubMed

Hudson, Ben; Toop, Les; Mangin, Dee; Pearson, John

2011-08-01

Treatment acceptance by patients is influenced by the way treatment effects are presented. Presentation of benefits using relative risk increases treatment acceptance compared to the use of absolute risk. It is not known whether this effect is modified by prior presentation of a patient's individualised risk estimate or how presentation of treatment harms by relative or absolute risk affects acceptance. To compare acceptance of a hypothetical treatment to prevent hip fracture after presentation of the treatment's benefit in relative or absolute terms in the context of a personal fracture risk estimate, and to reassess acceptance following subsequent presentation of harm in relative or absolute terms. Randomised controlled trial of patients recruited from 10 GPs' lists in Christchurch, New Zealand. Women aged ≥ 50 years were invited to participate. Participants were given a personal 10-year hip fracture risk estimate and randomised to receive information on a hypothetical treatment's benefit and harm in relative or absolute terms. Of the 1140 women invited to participate 393 (34%) took part. Treatment acceptance was greater following presentation of benefit using absolute terms than relative terms after adjustment forage, education, previous osteoporosis diagnosis, and self-reported risk (OR 1.73, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.10 to 2.73, P = 0.018). Presentation of the treatment's harmful effect in relative terms led to a greater proportion of participants declining treatment than did presentation in absolute terms (OR 4.89, 95% CI = 2.3 to 11.0, P<0.001). Presentation of treatment benefit and harm using absolute risk estimates led to greater treatment acceptance than presentation of the same information in relative terms.

Use of the Coronary Artery Calcium Score in Discussion of Initiation of Statin Therapy in Primary Prevention.

PubMed

Michos, Erin D; Blaha, Michael J; Blumenthal, Roger S

2017-12-01

Clinical guidelines for instituting pharmacotherapy for the primary prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), specifically lipid management and aspirin, have long been based on absolute risk. However, lipid management in the current era remains challenging to both patients and clinicians in the setting of somewhat discordant recommendations from various organizations. All guidelines endorse the use of statins for primary prevention for those at sufficient absolute risk, and treatment recommendations are generally "risk-based" rather than exclusively targeting specific low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels. Nonetheless, guidelines differ in relation to the risk threshold for initiation and the intensity of statin treatment. The key concept of the clinician-patient risk discussion introduced in the 2013 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association cholesterol guidelines is a process that addresses the potential for ASCVD risk reduction with statin treatment, potential for adverse treatment effects, patient preferences, encouragement of heart-healthy lifestyle, and management of other risk factors. However, operationalizing the clinician-patient risk discussion requires effective communication of the most accurate and personalized risk information. In this article, we review our treatment approach for the appropriate use of coronary artery calcium testing in the intermediate-risk patient to guide shared decision making. The decision to initiate or intensify statin therapy may be uncertain across a broad range of estimated 10-year ASCVD risk of 5% to 20%, and coronary artery calcium testing can reclassify risk upward or downward in approximately 50% of this group to inform the risk discussion. We conclude with 2 case-based examples of uncertain risk and uncertain statin therapeutic benefit to illustrate execution of the clinician-patient risk discussion. Copyright © 2017 Mayo Foundation for Medical Education and Research. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

How patient outcomes are reported in drug advertisements.

PubMed

Lexchin, J

1999-05-01

To examine how changes in outcomes are reported in drug advertisements in medical journals. Advertisements from a convenience sample of 38 issues of Canadian Family Physician, Canadian Journal of Anaesthesia, Canadian Journal of Psychiatry, Canadian Medical Association Journal, and the New England Journal of Medicine. Method of reporting changes in clinical outcomes (relative risk reduction [RRR], absolute risk reduction [ARR], number needed to treat [NNT]), name of product, and company marketing product were sought. In the 22 advertisements included in the analysis, 11 reported results as RRRs; two reported results as RRRs, but readers could calculate ARRs or NNTs from figures given in the advertisement; and nine gave no measure of results, but readers could calculate RRRs, ARRs, or NNTs from figures given. Most companies report changes in outcomes as RRRs, and this bias could influence the way physicians prescribe. Changes to the rules governing journal advertising and increased emphasis on critical appraisal skills would help mitigate this bias.

Relationship of Terminal Duct Lobular Unit Involution of the Breast with Area and Volume Mammographic Densities

PubMed Central

Gierach, Gretchen L.; Patel, Deesha A.; Pfeiffer, Ruth M.; Figueroa, Jonine D.; Linville, Laura; Papathomas, Daphne; Johnson, Jason M.; Chicoine, Rachael E.; Herschorn, Sally D.; Shepherd, John A.; Wang, Jeff; Malkov, Serghei; Vacek, Pamela M.; Weaver, Donald L.; Fan, Bo; Mahmoudzadeh, Amir Pasha; Palakal, Maya; Xiang, Jackie; Oh, Hannah; Horne, Hisani N.; Sprague, Brian L.; Hewitt, Stephen M.; Brinton, Louise A.; Sherman, Mark E.

2016-01-01

Elevated mammographic density (MD) is an established breast cancer risk factor. Reduced involution of terminal duct lobular units (TDLUs), the histologic source of most breast cancers, has been associated with higher MD and breast cancer risk. We investigated relationships of TDLU involution with area and volumetric MD, measured throughout the breast and surrounding biopsy targets (peri-lesional). Three measures inversely related to TDLU involution (TDLU count/mm2, median TDLU span, median acini count/TDLU) assessed in benign diagnostic biopsies from 348 women, ages 40–65, were related to MD area (quantified with thresholding software) and volume (assessed with a density phantom) by analysis of covariance, stratified by menopausal status and adjusted for confounders. Among premenopausal women, TDLU count was directly associated with percent peri-lesional MD (P-trend=0.03), but not with absolute dense area/volume. Greater TDLU span was associated with elevated percent dense area/volume (P-trend<0.05) and absolute peri-lesional MD (P=0.003). Acini count was directly associated with absolute peri-lesional MD (P=0.02). Greater TDLU involution (all metrics) was associated with increased nondense area/volume (P-trend≤0.04). Among postmenopausal women, TDLU measures were not significantly associated with MD. Among premenopausal women, reduced TDLU involution was associated with higher area and volumetric MD, particularly in peri-lesional parenchyma. Data indicating that TDLU involution and MD are correlated markers of breast cancer risk suggest that associations of MD with breast cancer may partly reflect amounts of at-risk epithelium. If confirmed, these results could suggest a prevention paradigm based on enhancing TDLU involution and monitoring efficacy by assessing MD reduction. PMID:26645278

Absolute probability estimates of lethal vessel strikes to North Atlantic right whales in Roseway Basin, Scotian Shelf.

PubMed

van der Hoop, Julie M; Vanderlaan, Angelia S M; Taggart, Christopher T

2012-10-01

Vessel strikes are the primary source of known mortality for the endangered North Atlantic right whale (Eubalaena glacialis). Multi-institutional efforts to reduce mortality associated with vessel strikes include vessel-routing amendments such as the International Maritime Organization voluntary "area to be avoided" (ATBA) in the Roseway Basin right whale feeding habitat on the southwestern Scotian Shelf. Though relative probabilities of lethal vessel strikes have been estimated and published, absolute probabilities remain unknown. We used a modeling approach to determine the regional effect of the ATBA, by estimating reductions in the expected number of lethal vessel strikes. This analysis differs from others in that it explicitly includes a spatiotemporal analysis of real-time transits of vessels through a population of simulated, swimming right whales. Combining automatic identification system (AIS) vessel navigation data and an observationally based whale movement model allowed us to determine the spatial and temporal intersection of vessels and whales, from which various probability estimates of lethal vessel strikes are derived. We estimate one lethal vessel strike every 0.775-2.07 years prior to ATBA implementation, consistent with and more constrained than previous estimates of every 2-16 years. Following implementation, a lethal vessel strike is expected every 41 years. When whale abundance is held constant across years, we estimate that voluntary vessel compliance with the ATBA results in an 82% reduction in the per capita rate of lethal strikes; very similar to a previously published estimate of 82% reduction in the relative risk of a lethal vessel strike. The models we developed can inform decision-making and policy design, based on their ability to provide absolute, population-corrected, time-varying estimates of lethal vessel strikes, and they are easily transported to other regions and situations.

The PLATO trial: do you believe in magic?

PubMed

Serebruany, Victor L; Atar, Dan

2010-04-01

The PLATO trial revealed a remarkable advantage of ticagrelor over clopidogrel in ACS patients. Unless the regulatory authorities discover serious flaws with the study, which is unlikely, the drug may substantially change the present landscape of oral antiplatelet therapy, especially in high-risk patients. Despite a somewhat unfavourable safety profile, ticagrelor has a lot of room to compensate for these well-defined side effects based on a documented absolute mortality reduction, solid prevention of MI, and convincing pattern of benefit growing over time.

The epidemiology of microbial keratitis with silicone hydrogel contact lenses.

PubMed

Stapleton, Fiona; Keay, Lisa; Edwards, Katie; Holden, Brien

2013-01-01

It was widely anticipated that after the introduction of silicone hydrogel lenses, the risk of microbial keratitis would be lower than with hydrogel lenses because of the reduction in hypoxic effects on the corneal epithelium. Large-scale epidemiological studies have confirmed that the absolute and relative risk of microbial keratitis is unchanged with overnight use of silicone hydrogel materials. The key findings include the following: (1) The risk of infection with 30 nights of silicone hydrogel use is equivalent to 6 nights of hydrogel extended wear; (2) Occasional overnight lens use is associated with a greater risk than daily lens use; (3) The rate of vision loss due to corneal infection with silicone hydrogel contact lenses is similar to that seen in hydrogel lenses; (4) The spectrum of causative organisms is similar to that seen in hydrogel lenses, and the material type does not impact the corneal location of presumed microbial keratitis; and (5) Modifiable risk factors for infection include overnight lens use, the degree of exposure, failing to wash hands before lens handling, and storage case hygiene practice. The lack of change in the absolute risk of disease would suggest that exposure to large number of pathogenic organisms can overcome any advantages obtained from eliminating the hypoxic effects of contact lenses. Epidemiological studies remain important in the assessment of new materials and modalities. Consideration of an early adopter effect with studies involving new materials and modalities and further investigation of the impact of second-generation silicone hydrogel materials is warranted.

Dyslipidemia: management using optimal lipid-lowering therapy.

PubMed

Ito, Matthew K

2012-10-01

To evaluate current approaches and explore emerging research related to dyslipidemia management. MEDLINE (2004-April 2012) was searched for randomized controlled trials using the terms dyslipidemia and lipid-lowering therapy or statin (>1000 hits). Separate searches (MEDLINE, Google) identified meta-analyses (2010-2011), disease prevalence statistics, and current consensus guidelines (2004-July 2011). Additional references were identified from the publications reviewed. English-language articles on large multicenter trials were evaluated. National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III guidelines for the reduction of cardiovascular risk recommend the attainment of specific low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) and non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (non-HDL-C) target values, based on an individual's 10-year risk of coronary heart disease or global risk. For most patients unable to achieve recommended lipid level goals with therapeutic lifestyle changes, statins are the first option for treatment. Results of large, well-controlled clinical trials have demonstrated that statins are effective in primary and secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease in diverse populations, including patients with diabetes and the elderly, and that intensive statin therapy provides more effective lipid goal attainment and significantly greater risk reduction in patients with coronary artery disease. Statin therapy is generally well tolerated but may increase the risk of myopathy. Statin use has been associated with increases in hepatic transaminases and an increased risk of diabetes, although the absolute risk of diabetes is low compared with the risk reduction benefit. Combination therapy including a statin may be appropriate for certain populations, but the risk reduction benefits of combination therapy remain unclear. Ezetimibe is an important treatment option for patients with hypercholesterolemia who do not tolerate intensive statin therapy. Although fibrates or niacin improves overall lipid profiles in patients with hypertriglyceridemia or dyslipidemia who are receiving statin therapy, their efficacy in reducing cardiovascular risk remains questionable and their use raises safety and tolerability concerns. Intensifying lifestyle changes and statin dose should be utilized first in patients not achieving their LDL-C and non-HDL-C goals.

Graphs to estimate an individualized risk of breast cancer.

PubMed

Benichou, J; Gail, M H; Mulvihill, J J

1996-01-01

Clinicians who counsel women about their risk for developing breast cancer need a rapid method to estimate individualized risk (absolute risk), as well as the confidence limits around that point. The Breast Cancer Detection Demonstration Project (BCDDP) model (sometimes called the Gail model) assumes no genetic model and simultaneously incorporates five risk factors, but involves cumbersome calculations and interpolations. This report provides graphs to estimate the absolute risk of breast cancer from the BCDDP model. The BCDDP recruited 280,000 women from 1973 to 1980 who were monitored for 5 years. From this cohort, 2,852 white women developed breast cancer and 3,146 controls were selected, all with complete risk-factor information. The BCDDP model, previously developed from these data, was used to prepare graphs that relate a specific summary relative-risk estimate to the absolute risk of developing breast cancer over intervals of 10, 20, and 30 years. Once a summary relative risk is calculated, the appropriate graph is chosen that shows the 10-, 20-, or 30-year absolute risk of developing breast cancer. A separate graph gives the 95% confidence limits around the point estimate of absolute risk. Once a clinician rules out a single gene trait that predisposes to breast cancer and elicits information on age and four risk factors, the tables and figures permit an estimation of a women's absolute risk of developing breast cancer in the next three decades. These results are intended to be applied to women who undergo regular screening. They should be used only in a formal counseling program to maximize a woman's understanding of the estimates and the proper use of them.

Male Breast Cancer Incidence and Mortality Risk in the Japanese Atomic Bomb Survivors - Differences in Excess Relative and Absolute Risk from Female Breast Cancer.

PubMed

Little, Mark P; McElvenny, Damien M

2017-02-01

There are well-known associations of ionizing radiation with female breast cancer, and emerging evidence also for male breast cancer. In the United Kingdom, female breast cancer following occupational radiation exposure is among that set of cancers eligible for state compensation and consideration is currently being given to an extension to include male breast cancer. We compare radiation-associated excess relative and absolute risks of male and female breast cancers. Breast cancer incidence and mortality data in the Japanese atomic-bomb survivors were analyzed using relative and absolute risk models via Poisson regression. We observed significant (p ≤ 0.01) dose-related excess risk for male breast cancer incidence and mortality. For incidence and mortality data, there are elevations by factors of approximately 15 and 5, respectively, of relative risk for male compared with female breast cancer incidence, the former borderline significant (p = 0.050). In contrast, for incidence and mortality data, there are elevations by factors of approximately 20 and 10, respectively, of female absolute risk compared with male, both statistically significant (p < 0.001). There are no indications of differences between the sexes in age/time-since-exposure/age-at-exposure modifications to the relative or absolute excess risk. The probability of causation of male breast cancer following radiation exposure exceeds by at least a factor of 5 that of many other malignancies. There is evidence of much higher radiation-associated relative risk for male than for female breast cancer, although absolute excess risks for males are much less than for females. However, the small number of male cases and deaths suggests a degree of caution in interpretation of this finding. Citation: Little MP, McElvenny DM. 2017. Male breast cancer incidence and mortality risk in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors - differences in excess relative and absolute risk from female breast cancer. Environ Health Perspect 125:223-229; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP151.

Benefit of Adding Ezetimibe to Statin Therapy on Cardiovascular Outcomes and Safety in Patients With Versus Without Diabetes Mellitus: Results From IMPROVE-IT (Improved Reduction of Outcomes: Vytorin Efficacy International Trial).

PubMed

Giugliano, Robert P; Cannon, Christopher P; Blazing, Michael A; Nicolau, José C; Corbalán, Ramón; Špinar, Jindřich; Park, Jeong-Gun; White, Jennifer A; Bohula, Erin A; Braunwald, Eugene

2018-04-10

Ezetimibe, when added to simvastatin, reduces cardiovascular events after acute coronary syndrome. We explored outcomes stratified by diabetes mellitus (DM). In IMPROVE-IT (Improved Reduction of Outcomes: Vytorin Efficacy International Trial), 18 144 patients after acute coronary syndrome with low-density lipoprotein cholesterol 50 to 125 mg/dL were randomized to 40 mg ezetimibe/simvastatin (E/S) or 40 mg placebo/simvastatin. The primary composite end point was cardiovascular death, major coronary events, and stroke. DM was a prespecified subgroup. The 4933 (27%) patients with DM were more often older and female, had had a prior myocardial infarction and revascularization, and presented more frequently with non-ST segment elevation acute coronary syndrome compared with patients without DM (each P <0.001). The median admission low-density lipoprotein cholesterol was lower among patients with DM (89 versus 97 mg/dL, P <0.001). E/S achieved a significantly lower median time-weighted average low-density lipoprotein cholesterol compared with placebo/simvastatin, irrespective of DM (DM: 49 versus 67 mg/dL; no DM: 55 versus 71 mg/dL; both P <0.001). In patients with DM, E/S reduced the 7-year Kaplan-Meier primary end point event rate by 5.5% absolute (hazard ratio, 0.85; 95% confidence interval, 0.78-0.94); in patients without DM, the absolute difference was 0.7% (hazard ratio, 0.98; 95% confidence interval, 0.91-1.04; P int =0.02). The largest relative reductions in patients with DM were in myocardial infarction (24%) and ischemic stroke (39%). No differences in safety outcomes by treatment were present regardless of DM. When stratified further by age, patients ≥75 years of age had a 20% relative reduction in the primary end point regardless of DM ( P int =0.91), whereas patients <75 years of age with DM had greater benefit than those without ( P int =0.011). When stratified by the TIMI (Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction) Risk Score for Secondary Prevention, all patients with DM demonstrated benefit with E/S regardless of risk. In contrast, among patients without DM, those with a high risk score experienced a significant (18%) relative reduction in the composite of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, and ischemic stroke with E/S compared with placebo/simvastatin, whereas patients without DM at low or moderate risk demonstrated no benefit with the addition of ezetimibe to simvastatin ( P int =0.034). In IMPROVE-IT, the benefit of adding ezetimibe to statin was enhanced in patients with DM and in high-risk patients without DM. URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00202878. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

HIN7/440: Evidence-based Consumer Health Information - The need for unbiased risk communication

PubMed Central

Hoeldke, B; Muehlhauser, I

1999-01-01

Online consumer health information is rapidly growing. At the same time an active part of patients and consumers in decision making about preventive or therapeutic interventions is increasingly demanded. The basis for informed consumer choice is the communication of evidence-based scientific data in a format that is clearly understood by most lay persons. The way study results are presented influence decisions by health care providers and patients or consumers alike. The impact of framing of outcome data as either relative or absolute differences is well recognized. Outcome data should be reported as absolute numbers, absolute risk reductions or numbers needed to treat or to screen rather than as relative risk reductions. Beyond the question of whether relative or absolute differences are used, outcome data can be framed by either emphasising achievable benefits or the lack of such benefits. Presentation of data as the proportion of patients who remain free of a target outcome rather than the proportion of patients who benefit from a certain intervention could substantially influence decision making. So far, studies evaluating the communication of treatment results to patients were focussed on the benefits of the respective interventions. Such an approach is incompatible with unbiased informed decision making by the patient, client or consumer. In order to communicate outcome data in an objective manner the whole possible spectrum of data presentation should be considered. Both, the proportion of persons who are likely to benefit as well as the proportion of persons who are unlikely to benefit or likely to be harmed should be presented with equal emphasis. Instruments to judge the quality of printed or online consumer health information do not include rating the framing of outcome data (e.g. http:/www.discern.org.uk).In order to establish an online system of evidence-based consumer health information that provides unbiased evidence-based communication of outcome data mammography screening was used as a model. After screening the literature according to evidence-based medicine criteria the information on benefits and risks of mammography screening has been compiled. Results are communicated as simple self explaining illustrations as well as original numbers equally emphasising the various aspects of the outcome. In addition, unbiased information is provided on the test efficacy of mammography screening (false positive, false negative results), on other potential side effects or other beneficial effects of mammography screening such as the number of diagnostic surgical interventions following mammography or the psychological sequaele thereof, data on total mortality and precision or lack of precision of results. The described mammography screening consumer information system is being evaluated with experts and the target consumer population with the final goal of an online evidence-based consumer health information

New strategies for the development of lipid-lowering therapies to reduce cardiovascular risk.

PubMed

Graham, Ian; Shear, Chuck; De Graeff, Pieter; Boulton, Caroline; Catapano, Alberico L; Stough, Wendy Gattis; Carlsson, Stefan C; De Backer, Guy; Emmerich, Joseph; Greenfeder, Scott; Kim, Albert M; Lautsch, Dominik; Nguyen, Tu; Nissen, Steven E; Prasad, Krishna; Ray, Kausik K; Robinson, Jennifer G; Sasiela, William J; Bruins Slot, Karsten; Stroes, Erik; Thuren, Tom; Van der Schueren, Bart; Velkovski-Rouyer, Maja; Wasserman, Scott M; Wiklund, Olov; Zouridakis, Emmanouil

2018-04-01

The very high occurrence of cardiovascular events presents a major public health issue, because treatment remains suboptimal. Lowering LDL cholesterol (LDL-C) with statins or ezetimibe in combination with a statin reduces major adverse cardiovascular events. The cardiovascular risk reduction in relation to the absolute LDL-C reduction is linear for most interventions without evidence of attenuation or increase in risk at low LDL-C levels. Opportunities for innovation in dyslipidaemia treatment should address the substantial risk of lipid-associated cardiovascular events among patients optimally treated per guidelines but who cannot achieve LDL-C goals and who could benefit from additional LDL-C-lowering therapy or experience side effects of statins. Fresh approaches are needed to identify promising drug targets early and develop them efficiently. The Cardiovascular Round Table of the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) convened a workshop to discuss new lipid-lowering strategies for cardiovascular risk reduction. Opportunities to improve treatment approaches and the efficient study of new therapies were explored. Circulating biomarkers may not be fully reliable proxy indicators of the relationship between treatment effect and clinical outcome. Mendelian randomization studies may better inform development strategies and refine treatment targets before Phase 3. Trials should match the drug to appropriate lipid and patient profile, and guidelines may move towards a precision-based approach to individual patient management. Stakeholder collaboration is needed to ensure continued innovation and better international coordination of both regulatory aspects and guidelines. It should be noted that risk may also be addressed through increased attention to other risk factors such as smoking, hypertension, overweight, and inactivity.

The use of incentive spirometry in pediatric patients with sickle cell disease to reduce the incidence of acute chest syndrome.

PubMed

Ahmad, Fahd A; Macias, Charles G; Allen, Joseph Y

2011-08-01

To determine if incentive spirometry (IS) in pediatric patients admitted with sickle cell disease for nonrespiratory complaints will decrease acute chest syndrome (ACS). This was an Institutional Review Board-approved before-after 2-year retrospective cohort study evaluating an evidence-based guideline (EBG) initiating mandatory IS in admitted pediatric sickle cell patients from a tertiary children's emergency center. Student t testing and χ² analysis were performed. There were 1551 patient visits. About 258 visits were enrolled in the pre-EBG year, and 230 in the EBG year. Between year characteristics were similar. The EBG year reported higher use of hydroxyurea (P<0.01), analgesics (P=0.02), and chest pain (P=0.03). Sixty-seven patients (25.9%) in the pre-EBG year received transfusions versus 51 (22.5%) in the EBG year (NS). Twenty-five (9.6%) of the pre-EBG patients received blood for ACS versus 14 (6.1%) in the EBG group (absolute risk reduction: 3.5%, 95% confidence interval: -1-8.4%). Subgroup analysis revealed that patients who presented with back pain experienced a significant decrease in the development of ACS in the EBG year (P=0.04, absolute risk reduction: 14%, 95% confidence interval: 1-28%, number needed to treat: 8). Mandatory IS for sickle cell disease patients admitted without respiratory complaints reduces transfusions and ACS, particularly for those presenting with back pain.

Anastrozole is cost-effective vs tamoxifen as initial adjuvant therapy in early breast cancer: Canadian perspectives on the ATAC completed-treatment analysis.

PubMed

Rocchi, A; Verma, S

2006-09-01

To conduct an economic analysis comparing tamoxifen and anastrozole (Arimidex) in the adjuvant treatment of hormone receptor-positive (HR+), post-menopausal early breast cancer patients. An economic model examined typical patients (64 years of age, HR+, 64% node negative) from the Arimidex, tamoxifen alone, or in combination (ATAC) trial over a lifetime horizon. Rates of events were derived from ATAC trial results. Post-trial event rates were drawn from the literature for tamoxifen; event rates for anastrozole were modified by the relative risks observed in the ATAC trial. Resource utilization was drawn from Statistics Canada's Population Health Model for breast cancer, supplemented by an expert panel. A public health care system perspective, 2004 Canadian prices and a 5% discount rate were employed. Anastrozole-taking patients incurred additional hormonal treatment costs compared to tamoxifen-taking patients (incremental lifetime cost, 6,974 Canadian dollars per patient), partially offset by reduced downstream recurrences of breast cancer (1,143 Canadian dollars lifetime savings per patient) for a net incremental cost of 5,796 Canadian dollars per patient on anastrozole. The anastrozole-treated patients were projected to experience a 5.6% absolute risk reduction of first breast cancer recurrence and a 2.8% absolute risk reduction in breast cancer death. This corresponded to 30,000 Canadian dollars per life year gained and 28,000 Canadian dollars per quality-adjusted life year gained (95% confidence interval, 17,428 to 54,605 Canadian dollars). The results were affected by the duration and extent of anastrozole benefit under sensitivity analysis but remained cost-effective. Compared to tamoxifen, anastrozole therapy is effective and cost-effective as initial adjuvant therapy in post-menopausal, HR+ early breast cancer patients.

Effect of timing and method of enteral tube feeding for dysphagic stroke patients (FOOD): a multicentre randomised controlled trial.

PubMed

Dennis, M S; Lewis, S C; Warlow, C

Undernutrition is common in patients admitted with stroke. We aimed to establish whether the timing and route of enteral tube feeding after stroke affected patients' outcomes at 6 months. The FOOD trials consist of three pragmatic multicentre randomised controlled trials, two of which included dysphagic stroke patients. In one trial, patients enrolled within 7 days of admission were randomly allocated to early enteral tube feeding or no tube feeding for more than 7 days (early versus avoid). In the other, patients were allocated percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy (PEG) or nasogastric feeding. The primary outcome was death or poor outcome at 6 months. Analysis was by intention to treat. Between Nov 1, 1996, and July 31, 2003, 859 patients were enrolled by 83 hospitals in 15 countries into the early versus avoid trial. Early tube feeding was associated with an absolute reduction in risk of death of 5.8% (95% CI -0.8 to 12.5, p=0.09) and a reduction in death or poor outcome of 1.2% (-4.2 to 6.6, p=0.7). In the PEG versus nasogastric tube trial, 321 patients were enrolled by 47 hospitals in 11 countries. PEG feeding was associated with an absolute increase in risk of death of 1.0% (-10.0 to 11.9, p=0.9) and an increased risk of death or poor outcome of 7.8% (0.0 to 15.5, p=0.05). Early tube feeding might reduce case fatality, but at the expense of increasing the proportion surviving with poor outcome. Our data do not support a policy of early initiation of PEG feeding in dysphagic stroke patients.

Indoor air pollution and the lung in low- and medium-income countries.

PubMed

Kurmi, Om P; Lam, Kin Bong Hubert; Ayres, Jon G

2012-07-01

Over half the world's population, mostly from developing countries, use solid fuel for domestic purposes and are exposed to very high concentrations of harmful air pollutants with potential health effects such as respiratory problems, cardiovascular problems, infant mortality and ocular problems. The evidence also suggests that, although the total percentage of people using solid fuel is decreasing, the absolute number is currently increasing. Exposure to smoke from solid fuel burning increases the risk of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and lung cancer in adults, and acute lower respiratory tract infection/pneumonia in children. Despite the heterogeneity among studies, the association between COPD and exposure to smoke produced by burning different types of solid fuel is consistent. However, there is strong evidence that while coal burning is a risk factor for lung cancer, exposure to other biomass fuel smoke is less so. There is some evidence that reduction of smoke exposure using improved cooking stoves reduces the risk of COPD and, possibly, acute lower respiratory infection in children, so approaches to reduce biomass smoke exposure are likely to result in reductions in the global burden of respiratory disease.

Intervenable factors associated with suicide risk in transgender persons: a respondent driven sampling study in Ontario, Canada.

PubMed

Bauer, Greta R; Scheim, Ayden I; Pyne, Jake; Travers, Robb; Hammond, Rebecca

2015-06-02

Across Europe, Canada, and the United States, 22-43 % of transgender (trans) people report a history of suicide attempts. We aimed to identify intervenable factors (related to social inclusion, transphobia, or sex/gender transition) associated with reduced risk of past-year suicide ideation or attempt, and to quantify the potential population health impact. The Trans PULSE respondent-driven sampling (RDS) survey collected data from trans people age 16+ in Ontario, Canada, including 380 who reported on suicide outcomes. Descriptive statistics and multivariable logistic regression models were weighted using RDS II methods. Counterfactual risk ratios and population attributable risks were estimated using model-standardized risks. Among trans Ontarians, 35.1 % (95 % CI: 27.6, 42.5) seriously considered, and 11.2 % (95 % CI: 6.0, 16.4) attempted, suicide in the past year. Social support, reduced transphobia, and having any personal identification documents changed to an appropriate sex designation were associated with large relative and absolute reductions in suicide risk, as was completing a medical transition through hormones and/or surgeries (when needed). Parental support for gender identity was associated with reduced ideation. Lower self-reported transphobia (10(th) versus 90(th) percentile) was associated with a 66 % reduction in ideation (RR = 0.34, 95 % CI: 0.17, 0.67), and an additional 76 % reduction in attempts among those with ideation (RR = 0.24; 95 % CI: 0.07, 0.82). This corresponds to potential prevention of 160 ideations per 1000 trans persons, and 200 attempts per 1,000 with ideation, based on a hypothetical reduction of transphobia from current levels to the 10(th) percentile. Large effect sizes were observed for this controlled analysis of intervenable factors, suggesting that interventions to increase social inclusion and access to medical transition, and to reduce transphobia, have the potential to contribute to substantial reductions in the extremely high prevalences of suicide ideation and attempts within trans populations. Such interventions at the population level may require policy change.

Combined effect of educational status and cardiovascular risk factors on the incidence of coronary heart disease and stroke in European cohorts: Implications for prevention.

PubMed

Veronesi, Giovanni; Tunstall-Pedoe, Hugh; Ferrario, Marco M; Kee, Frank; Kuulasmaa, Kari; Chambless, Lloyd E; Amouyel, Philippe; Arveiler, Dominique; Bobak, Martin; Ferrieres, Jean; Giampaoli, Simona; Jørgensen, Torben; Peters, Annette; Salomaa, Veikko; Soderberg, Stefan; Tamosiunas, Abdonas; Cesana, Giancarlo

2017-03-01

Background The combined effect of social status and risk factors on the absolute risk of cardiovascular disease has been insufficiently investigated, but results provide guidance on who could benefit most through prevention. Methods We followed 77,918 cardiovascular disease-free individuals aged 35-74 years at baseline, from 38 cohorts covering Nordic and Baltic countries, the UK and Central Europe, for a median of 12 years. Using Fine-Gray models in a competing-risks framework we estimated the effect of the interaction of education with smoking, blood pressure and body weight on the cumulative risk of incident acute coronary heart disease and stroke. Results Compared with more educated smokers, the less educated had an added increase in absolute risk of cardiovascular disease of 3.1% (95% confidence interval + 0.1%, +6.2%) in men and of 1.5% (-1.9%, +5.0%) in women, consistent across smoking categories. Conversely, the interaction was negative for overweight: -2.6% (95% CI: -5.6%, +0.3%) and obese: -3.6% (-7.6%, +0.4%) men, suggesting that the more educated would benefit more from the same reduction in body weight. A weaker interaction was observed for body weight in women, and for blood pressure in both genders. Less educated men and women with a cluster of two or more risk factors had an added cardiovascular disease risk of 3.6% (+0.1%, +7.0%) and of 2.6% (-0.5%, +5.6%), respectively, compared with their more educated counterparts. Conclusions Socially disadvantaged subjects have more to gain from lifestyle and blood pressure modification, hopefully reducing both their risk and also social inequality in disease.

A randomized trial of peer coach and office staff support to reduce coronary heart disease risk in African-Americans with uncontrolled hypertension.

PubMed

Turner, Barbara J; Hollenbeak, Christopher S; Liang, Yuanyuan; Pandit, Kavita; Joseph, Shelly; Weiner, Mark G

2012-10-01

Adopting features of the Chronic Care Model may reduce coronary heart disease risk and blood pressure in vulnerable populations. We evaluated a peer and practice team intervention on reduction in 4-year coronary heart disease risk and systolic blood pressure. A single blind, randomized, controlled trial in two adjacent urban university-affiliated primary care practices. Two hundred eighty African-American subjects aged 40 to 75 with uncontrolled hypertension. Three monthly calls from trained peer patients with well-controlled hypertension and, on alternate months, two practice staff visits to review a personalized 4-year heart disease risk calculator and slide shows about heart disease risks. All subjects received usual physician care and brochures about healthy cooking and heart disease. Change in 4-year coronary heart disease risk (primary) and change in systolic blood pressure, both assessed at 6 months. At baseline, the 136 intervention and 144 control subjects' mean 4-year coronary heart disease risk did not differ (intervention=5.8 % and control=6.4 %, P=0.39), and their mean systolic blood pressure was the same (140.5 mmHg, p=0.83). Endpoint data for coronary heart disease were obtained for 69 % of intervention and 82 % of control subjects. After multiple imputation for missing endpoint data, the reduction in risk among all 280 subjects favored the intervention, but was not statistically significant (difference -0.73 %, 95 % confidence interval: -1.54 % to 0.09 %, p=0.08). Among the 247 subjects with a systolic blood pressure endpoint (85 % of intervention and 91 % of control subjects), more intervention than control subjects achieved a >5 mmHg reduction (61 % versus 45 %, respectively, p=0.01). After multiple imputation, the absolute reduction in systolic blood pressure was also greater for the intervention group (difference -6.47 mmHg, 95 % confidence interval: -10.69 to -2.25, P=0.003). One patient died in each study arm. Peer patient and office-based behavioral support for African-American patients with uncontrolled hypertension did not result in a significantly greater reduction in coronary heart disease risk but did significantly reduce systolic blood pressure.

Modelling second malignancy risks from low dose rate and high dose rate brachytherapy as monotherapy for localised prostate cancer.

PubMed

Murray, Louise; Mason, Joshua; Henry, Ann M; Hoskin, Peter; Siebert, Frank-Andre; Venselaar, Jack; Bownes, Peter

2016-08-01

To estimate the risks of radiation-induced rectal and bladder cancers following low dose rate (LDR) and high dose rate (HDR) brachytherapy as monotherapy for localised prostate cancer and compare to external beam radiotherapy techniques. LDR and HDR brachytherapy monotherapy plans were generated for three prostate CT datasets. Second cancer risks were assessed using Schneider's concept of organ equivalent dose. LDR risks were assessed according to a mechanistic model and a bell-shaped model. HDR risks were assessed according to a bell-shaped model. Relative risks and excess absolute risks were estimated and compared to external beam techniques. Excess absolute risks of second rectal or bladder cancer were low for both LDR (irrespective of the model used for calculation) and HDR techniques. Average excess absolute risks of rectal cancer for LDR brachytherapy according to the mechanistic model were 0.71 per 10,000 person-years (PY) and 0.84 per 10,000 PY respectively, and according to the bell-shaped model, were 0.47 and 0.78 per 10,000 PY respectively. For HDR, the average excess absolute risks for second rectal and bladder cancers were 0.74 and 1.62 per 10,000 PY respectively. The absolute differences between techniques were very low and clinically irrelevant. Compared to external beam prostate radiotherapy techniques, LDR and HDR brachytherapy resulted in the lowest risks of second rectal and bladder cancer. This study shows both LDR and HDR brachytherapy monotherapy result in low estimated risks of radiation-induced rectal and bladder cancer. LDR resulted in lower bladder cancer risks than HDR, and lower or similar risks of rectal cancer. In absolute terms these differences between techniques were very small. Compared to external beam techniques, second rectal and bladder cancer risks were lowest for brachytherapy. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Extended-duration versus short-duration pharmacological thromboprophylaxis in acutely Ill hospitalized medical patients: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

PubMed

Liew, Aaron Y L; Piran, Siavash; Eikelboom, John W; Douketis, James D

2017-04-01

Extended-duration pharmacological thromboprophylaxis, for at least 28 days, is effective for the prevention of symptomatic venous thromboembolism (VTE) in high-risk surgical patients but is of uncertain benefit in hospitalized medical patients. We aimed to evaluate the efficacy and safety of extended-duration thromboprophylaxis in hospitalized medical patients. We conducted a systematic PubMed, Medline and EMBASE literature search until June 2016 and a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials which compared extended-duration with short-duration thromboprophylaxis in hospitalized medical patients. Four randomized controlled trials comparing extended-duration prophylaxis (24-47 days) with short-duration prophylaxis (6-14 days) in a total of 34,068 acutely ill hospitalized medical patients were included. When compared with short-duration prophylaxis, extended-duration prophylaxis was associated with a decrease in symptomatic proximal or distal deep vein thrombosis (DVT) [relative risk (RR) = 0.52; 95% confidence interval (Cl): 0.35-0.77: p = 0.001; absolute risk reduction (ARR) = 0.32%, number needed to treat (NNT) = 313], and symptomatic non-fatal pulmonary embolism (RR = 0.61; 95% Cl 0.38-0.99: p = 0.04; ARR = 0.16%; NNT = 625), an increase in major bleeding (RR = 2.08; 95% Cl 1.50-2.90: p < 0.0001, absolute risk increase = 0.41%, number needed to harm = 244), and no significant reduction in VTE-related mortality (RR = 0.69; 95% Cl 0.45-1.06: p = 0.09) or all-cause mortality (RR = 1.00; 95% CI 0.89-1.12; p = 0.95). There was heterogeneity for major bleeding due to results from the APEX trial (no difference between betrixaban and enoxaparin). Compared with short-duration thromboprophylaxis, extended-duration treatment reduces the risk for symptomatic DVT and non-fatal pulmonary embolism. Extended treatment with apixaban, enoxaparin and rivaroxaban but not betrixaban increases the risk for major bleeding.

Mammographic Density Phenotypes and Risk of Breast Cancer: A Meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Graff, Rebecca E.; Ursin, Giske; dos Santos Silva, Isabel; McCormack, Valerie; Baglietto, Laura; Vachon, Celine; Bakker, Marije F.; Giles, Graham G.; Chia, Kee Seng; Czene, Kamila; Eriksson, Louise; Hall, Per; Hartman, Mikael; Warren, Ruth M. L.; Hislop, Greg; Chiarelli, Anna M.; Hopper, John L.; Krishnan, Kavitha; Li, Jingmei; Li, Qing; Pagano, Ian; Rosner, Bernard A.; Wong, Chia Siong; Scott, Christopher; Stone, Jennifer; Maskarinec, Gertraud; Boyd, Norman F.; van Gils, Carla H.

2014-01-01

Background Fibroglandular breast tissue appears dense on mammogram, whereas fat appears nondense. It is unclear whether absolute or percentage dense area more strongly predicts breast cancer risk and whether absolute nondense area is independently associated with risk. Methods We conducted a meta-analysis of 13 case–control studies providing results from logistic regressions for associations between one standard deviation (SD) increments in mammographic density phenotypes and breast cancer risk. We used random-effects models to calculate pooled odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). All tests were two-sided with P less than .05 considered to be statistically significant. Results Among premenopausal women (n = 1776 case patients; n = 2834 control subjects), summary odds ratios were 1.37 (95% CI = 1.29 to 1.47) for absolute dense area, 0.78 (95% CI = 0.71 to 0.86) for absolute nondense area, and 1.52 (95% CI = 1.39 to 1.66) for percentage dense area when pooling estimates adjusted for age, body mass index, and parity. Corresponding odds ratios among postmenopausal women (n = 6643 case patients; n = 11187 control subjects) were 1.38 (95% CI = 1.31 to 1.44), 0.79 (95% CI = 0.73 to 0.85), and 1.53 (95% CI = 1.44 to 1.64). After additional adjustment for absolute dense area, associations between absolute nondense area and breast cancer became attenuated or null in several studies and summary odds ratios became 0.82 (95% CI = 0.71 to 0.94; P heterogeneity = .02) for premenopausal and 0.85 (95% CI = 0.75 to 0.96; P heterogeneity < .01) for postmenopausal women. Conclusions The results suggest that percentage dense area is a stronger breast cancer risk factor than absolute dense area. Absolute nondense area was inversely associated with breast cancer risk, but it is unclear whether the association is independent of absolute dense area. PMID:24816206

[Advances in research on childhood neutropenia].

PubMed

Feng, Jian-Hua; Qian, Yan

2017-04-01

Neutrophils, an important type of human immune cells, are involved in host defense against infections. Neutropenia refers to a group of diseases manifesting as a reduction in the absolute value of mature neutrophils and is often accompanied by an increased risk of bacterial infection. According to etiology and pathogenesis, neutropenia is classified into congenital and acquired neutropenia. This article reviews the current research status and advances in the etiology of neutropenia in children. A deep understanding of the etiology of neutropenia helps to improve the diagnosis and treatment of this disease.

Efficacy and safety of mipomersen sodium (Kynamro).

PubMed

Hovingh, Kees; Besseling, Joost; Kastelein, John

2013-07-01

Mipomersen is a first-in-class drug indicated as an adjunct to lipid-lowering medications and diet to reduce low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (LDL-C), apolipoprotein B (apoB), total cholesterol (TC) and non-high density lipoprotein-cholesterol (non-HDL-C) in patients with homozygous familial hypercholesterolemia (HoFH). This article summarizes the efficacy and safety profile of mipomersen based on literature, public materials available from the Endocrinologic and Metabolic Drugs Advisory Committee meeting (FDA) in review of the New Drug Application (NDA 203568) and the recent product label. Patients suffering from HoFH are characterized by elevated levels of LDL-C and are, therefore, at severely increased risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD). Currently available lipid-lowering therapies (LLT), such as statins, have been shown to lower LDL-C levels and CVD risk. However, in patients suffering from HoFH, additional therapy is urgently needed to further decrease LDL-C levels and CVD risk. Mipomersen (Kynamro) has recently been approved by the FDA as a novel LLT modality in patients with HoFH. Mipomersen has been show to result in highly relevant absolute LDL-C reductions in HoFH patients, and given the undisputed causal relationship between LDL-C levels and CVD risk, this additional LDL-C lowering is expected to result in a robust CVD risk reduction.

Carotid endarterectomy--an evidence-based review: report of the Therapeutics and Technology Assessment Subcommittee of the American Academy of Neurology.

PubMed

Chaturvedi, S; Bruno, A; Feasby, T; Holloway, R; Benavente, O; Cohen, S N; Cote, R; Hess, D; Saver, J; Spence, J D; Stern, B; Wilterdink, J

2005-09-27

To assess the efficacy of carotid endarterectomy for stroke prevention in asymptomatic and symptomatic patients with internal carotid artery stenosis. Additional clinical scenarios, such as use of endarterectomy combined with cardiac surgery, are also reviewed. The authors selected nine important clinical questions. A systematic search was performed for articles from 1990 (the year of the last statement) until 2001. Additional articles from 2002 through 2004 were included using prespecified criteria. Two reviewers also screened for other relevant articles from 2002 to 2004. Case reports, review articles, technical studies, and single surgeon case series were excluded. For several questions, high quality randomized clinical trials had been completed. Carotid endarterectomy reduces the stroke risk compared to medical therapy alone for patients with 70 to 99% symptomatic stenosis (16% absolute risk reduction at 5 years). There is a smaller benefit for patients with 50 to 69% symptomatic stenosis (absolute risk reduction 4.6% at 5 years). There is a small benefit for asymptomatic patients with 60 to 99% stenosis if the perioperative complication rate is low. Aspirin in a dose of 81 to 325 mg per day is preferred vs higher doses (650 to 1,300 mg per day) in patients undergoing endarterectomy. Evidence supports carotid endarterectomy for severe (70 to 99%) symptomatic stenosis (Level A). Endarterectomy is moderately useful for symptomatic patients with 50 to 69% stenosis (Level B) and not indicated for symptomatic patients with <50% stenosis (Level A). For asymptomatic patients with 60 to 99% stenosis, the benefit/risk ratio is smaller compared to symptomatic patients and individual decisions must be made. Endarterectomy can reduce the future stroke rate if the perioperative stroke/death rate is kept low (<3%) (Level A). Low dose aspirin (81 to 325 mg) is preferred for patients before and after carotid endarterectomy to reduce the rate of stroke, myocardial infarction, and death (Level A).

Male breast cancer incidence and mortality risk in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors – Differences in excess relative and absolute risk from female breast cancer

DOE PAGES

Little, Mark P.; McElvenny, Damien M.

2016-06-10

There are well-known associations of ionizing radiation with female breast cancer, and emerging evidence also for male breast cancer. In the UK, female breast cancer following occupational radiation exposure is among that set of cancers eligible for state compensation and consideration is currently being given to an extension to include male breast cancer. The objectives here, compare radiation-associated excess relative and absolute risks of male and female breast cancers. Breast cancer incidence and mortality data in the Japanese atomic-bomb survivors were analyzed using relative and absolute risk models via Poisson regression. As a result, we observed significant ( p≤ 0.01)more » dose-related excess risk for male breast cancer incidence and mortality. For incidence and mortality data, there are approximate 15-fold and 5- fold elevations, respectively, of relative risk for male compared with female breast cancer incidence, the former borderline significant (p = 0.050). In contrast, for incidence and mortality data there are approximate 20-fold and 10-fold elevations, respectively, of female absolute risk compared with male, both statistically significant (p < 0.001). There are no indications of differences between the sexes in age/time-since-exposure/age-at-exposure modifications to the relative or absolute excess risk. The probability of causation of male breast cancer following radiation exposure exceeds by at least 5-fold that of many other malignancies. In conclusion, there is evidence of much higher radiation-associated relative risk for male than for female breast cancer, although absolute excess risks for males are much less than for females. However, the small number of male cases and deaths suggests a degree of caution in interpretation of this finding.« less

Male breast cancer incidence and mortality risk in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors – Differences in excess relative and absolute risk from female breast cancer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Little, Mark P.; McElvenny, Damien M.

There are well-known associations of ionizing radiation with female breast cancer, and emerging evidence also for male breast cancer. In the UK, female breast cancer following occupational radiation exposure is among that set of cancers eligible for state compensation and consideration is currently being given to an extension to include male breast cancer. The objectives here, compare radiation-associated excess relative and absolute risks of male and female breast cancers. Breast cancer incidence and mortality data in the Japanese atomic-bomb survivors were analyzed using relative and absolute risk models via Poisson regression. As a result, we observed significant ( p≤ 0.01)more » dose-related excess risk for male breast cancer incidence and mortality. For incidence and mortality data, there are approximate 15-fold and 5- fold elevations, respectively, of relative risk for male compared with female breast cancer incidence, the former borderline significant (p = 0.050). In contrast, for incidence and mortality data there are approximate 20-fold and 10-fold elevations, respectively, of female absolute risk compared with male, both statistically significant (p < 0.001). There are no indications of differences between the sexes in age/time-since-exposure/age-at-exposure modifications to the relative or absolute excess risk. The probability of causation of male breast cancer following radiation exposure exceeds by at least 5-fold that of many other malignancies. In conclusion, there is evidence of much higher radiation-associated relative risk for male than for female breast cancer, although absolute excess risks for males are much less than for females. However, the small number of male cases and deaths suggests a degree of caution in interpretation of this finding.« less

The Distinct Role of Comparative Risk Perceptions in a Breast Cancer Prevention Program

PubMed Central

Dillard, Amanda J.; Ubel, Peter A.; Smith, Dylan M.; Zikmund-Fisher, Brian J.; Nair, Vijay; Derry, Holly A.; Zhang, Aijun; Pitsch, Rosemarie K.; Alford, Sharon Hensley; McClure, Jennifer B.; Fagerlin, Angela

2013-01-01

Background Comparative risk perceptions may rival other types of information in terms of effects on health behavior decisions. Purpose We examined associations between comparative risk perceptions, affect, and behavior while controlling for absolute risk perceptions and actual risk. Methods Women at an increased risk of breast cancer participated in a program to learn about tamoxifen which can reduce the risk of breast cancer. Women reported comparative risk perceptions of breast cancer and completed measures of anxiety, knowledge, and tamoxifen-related behavior intentions. Three months later, women reported their behavior. Results Comparative risk perceptions were positively correlated with anxiety, knowledge, intentions, and behavior three months later. After controlling for participants’ actual risk of breast cancer and absolute risk perceptions, comparative risk perceptions predicted anxiety and knowledge, but not intentions or behavior. Conclusions Comparative risk perceptions can affect patient outcomes like anxiety and knowledge independently of absolute risk perceptions and actual risk information. PMID:21698518

Male Breast Cancer Incidence and Mortality Risk in the Japanese Atomic Bomb Survivors – Differences in Excess Relative and Absolute Risk from Female Breast Cancer

PubMed Central

Little, Mark P.; McElvenny, Damien M.

2016-01-01

Background: There are well-known associations of ionizing radiation with female breast cancer, and emerging evidence also for male breast cancer. In the United Kingdom, female breast cancer following occupational radiation exposure is among that set of cancers eligible for state compensation and consideration is currently being given to an extension to include male breast cancer. Objectives: We compare radiation-associated excess relative and absolute risks of male and female breast cancers. Methods: Breast cancer incidence and mortality data in the Japanese atomic-bomb survivors were analyzed using relative and absolute risk models via Poisson regression. Results: We observed significant (p ≤ 0.01) dose-related excess risk for male breast cancer incidence and mortality. For incidence and mortality data, there are elevations by factors of approximately 15 and 5, respectively, of relative risk for male compared with female breast cancer incidence, the former borderline significant (p = 0.050). In contrast, for incidence and mortality data, there are elevations by factors of approximately 20 and 10, respectively, of female absolute risk compared with male, both statistically significant (p < 0.001). There are no indications of differences between the sexes in age/time-since-exposure/age-at-exposure modifications to the relative or absolute excess risk. The probability of causation of male breast cancer following radiation exposure exceeds by at least a factor of 5 that of many other malignancies. Conclusions: There is evidence of much higher radiation-associated relative risk for male than for female breast cancer, although absolute excess risks for males are much less than for females. However, the small number of male cases and deaths suggests a degree of caution in interpretation of this finding. Citation: Little MP, McElvenny DM. 2017. Male breast cancer incidence and mortality risk in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors – differences in excess relative and absolute risk from female breast cancer. Environ Health Perspect 125:223–229; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP151 PMID:27286002

Advances in the management of dyslipidemia.

PubMed

Kampangkaew, June; Pickett, Stephen; Nambi, Vijay

2017-07-01

Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality in the United States and therapies aimed at lipid modification are important for the reduction of cardiovascular risk. There have been many exciting advances in lipid management over the recent years. This review discusses these recent advances as well as the direction of future studies. Several recent clinical trials support low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-c) reduction beyond maximal statin therapy for improved cardiovascular outcomes. Ezetimibe reduced LDL-c beyond maximal statin therapy and was associated with improved cardiovascular outcomes for high-risk populations. Further LDL-c reduction may also be achieved with proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type-9 (PCSK9) inhibition and a recent trial, Further Cardiovascular Outcomes Research with PCSK9 Inhibition in Subjects with Elevated Risk (FOURIER), was the first to show reduction in cardiovascular events for evolocumab. Additional outcome studies of monoclonal antibody and RNA-targeted PCSK9 inhibitors are underway. Quantitative high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-c) improvements have failed to have clinical impact to date; most recently, cholesteryl ester transfer protein inhibitors and apolipoprotein infusions have demonstrated disappointing results. There are still ongoing trials in both of these areas, but some newer therapies are focusing on HDL functionality and not just the absolute HDL-c levels. There are several ongoing studies in triglyceride reduction including fatty acid therapy, inhibition of apolipoprotein C-3 or ANGTPL3 and peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor-α agonists. Lipid management continues to evolve and these advances have the potential to change clinical practice in the coming years.

Targeting aspirin in acute disabling ischemic stroke: an individual patient data meta-analysis of three large randomized trials.

PubMed

Thompson, Douglas D; Murray, Gordon D; Candelise, Livia; Chen, Zhengming; Sandercock, Peter A G; Whiteley, William N

2015-10-01

Aspirin is of moderate overall benefit for patients with acute disabling ischemic stroke. It is unclear whether functional outcome could be improved after stroke by targeting aspirin to patients with a high risk of recurrent thrombosis or a low risk of haemorrhage. We aimed to determine whether patients at higher risk of thrombotic events or poor functional outcome, or lower risk of major haemorrhage had a greater absolute risk reduction of poor functional outcome with aspirin than the average patient. We used data on individual ischemic stroke patients from three large trials of aspirin vs. placebo in acute ischemic stroke: the first International Stroke Trial (n = 18,372), the Chinese Acute Stroke Trial (n = 20,172) and the Multicentre Acute Stroke Trial (n = 622). We developed and evaluated clinical prediction models for the following: early thrombotic events (myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, deep vein thrombosis and pulmonary embolism); early haemorrhagic events (significant intracranial haemorrhage, major extracranial haemorrhage, or haemorrhagic transformation of an infarct); and late poor functional outcome. We calculated the absolute risk reduction of poor functional outcome (death or dependence) at final follow-up in: quartiles of early thrombotic risk; quartiles of early haemorrhagic risk; and deciles of poor functional outcome risk. Ischemic stroke patients who were older, had lower blood pressure, computerized tomography evidence of infarct or more severe deficits due to stroke had increased risk of thrombotic and haemorrhagic events and poor functional outcome. Prediction models built with all baseline variables (including onset to treatment time) discriminated weakly between patients with and without recurrent thrombotic events (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0·56, 95% CI:0·53-0·59) and haemorrhagic events (0·57, 0·52-0·64), though well between patients with and without poor functional outcome (0·77, 0·76-0·78) in the International Stroke Trial. We found no evidence that the net benefit of aspirin increased with increasing risk of thrombosis, haemorrhage or poor functional outcome in all three trials. Using simple clinical variables to target aspirin to patients after acute disabling stroke by risk of thrombosis, haemorrhage or poor functional outcome does not lead to greater net clinical benefit. We suggest future risk stratification schemes include new risk factors for thrombosis and intracranial haemorrhage. © 2015 The Authors. International Journal of Stroke published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of World Stroke Organization.

Statin Eligibility in Primary Prevention: From a Risk-Based Strategy to a Personalized Approach Based on the Predicted Benefit.

PubMed

Cesena, Fernando H Y; Laurinavicius, Antonio G; Valente, Viviane A; Conceição, Raquel D; Nasir, Khurram; Santos, Raul D; Bittencourt, Marcio S

2018-06-01

Guidelines have recommended statin initiation based on the absolute cardiovascular risk. We tested the hypothesis that a strategy based on the predicted cardiovascular benefit, compared with the risk-based approach, modifies statin eligibility and the estimated benefit in a population in primary cardiovascular prevention. The study included 16,008 subjects (48 ± 6 years, 73% men) with low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels of 70 to <190 mg/dl, not on lipid-lowering drugs, who underwent a routine health screening in a single center. For the risk-based strategy, criterion for statin eligibility was defined as a 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk of ≥7.5%. In the benefit-based strategy, subjects were considered for statin according to the predicted absolute cardiovascular risk reduction, so that the number of statin candidates would be the same as in the risk-based strategy. The benefit-based strategy would replace 11% of statin candidates allocated in the risk-based approach with younger, lower risk subjects with higher low-density lipoprotein cholesterol. Using the benefit-based strategy, 13% of subjects with 5.0% to < 7.5% ASCVD risk would shift from a statin-ineligible to a statin-eligible status, whereas 24% of those with 7.5% to <10.0% ASCVD risk would become statin ineligible. These effects would transfer the benefit from higher to lower risk subjects. In the entire population, no clinically meaningful change in the benefit would be expected. In conclusion, switching from a risk-based strategy to a benefit-based approach, while keeping the same rate of statin use in the population, is expected to promote substantial changes in statin eligibility in subjects at intermediate cardiovascular risk, modifying the subpopulation to be benefited by the treatment. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

12 CFR 1229.9 - Discretionary actions applicable to significantly undercapitalized Banks.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... absolute dollar amount, as a percentage of current obligations or in any other form chosen by the Director...-balance sheet obligations. Such reduction may be stated in an absolute dollar amount, as a percentage of... absolute dollar amount, as a percentage of current assets or in any other form chosen by the Director; (4...

12 CFR 1229.9 - Discretionary actions applicable to significantly undercapitalized Banks.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... absolute dollar amount, as a percentage of current obligations or in any other form chosen by the Director...-balance sheet obligations. Such reduction may be stated in an absolute dollar amount, as a percentage of... absolute dollar amount, as a percentage of current assets or in any other form chosen by the Director; (4...

Does aspirin use prevent acute coronary syndrome in patients with pneumonia: multicenter prospective randomized trial.

PubMed

Oz, Fahrettin; Gul, Sule; Kaya, Mehmet G; Yazici, Mehmet; Bulut, Ismet; Elitok, Ali; Ersin, Gunay; Abakay, Ozlem; Akkoyun, Cayan D; Oncul, Aytac; Cetinkaya, Erdogan; Gibson, Michael C; Oflaz, Huseyin

2013-05-01

The aim of this study was to test the hypothesis that aspirin would reduce the risk for acute coronary syndromes (ACSs) in patients with pneumonia. Pooled data suggest that pneumonia may trigger an ACS as a result of inflammatory reactions and the prothrombotic changes in patients with pneumonia. Hypothetically considering its antiaggregating and anti-inflammatory effects, aspirin might also be beneficial for the primary prevention of ACS in patients with pneumonia. One hundred and eighty-five patients with pneumonia who had more than one risk factor for cardiovascular disease were randomized to an aspirin group (n=91) or a control group (n=94). The patients in the aspirin group received 300 mg of aspirin daily for 1 month. ECGs were recorded on admission and 48 h and 30 days after admission to assess silent ischemia. The level of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T was measured on admission and 48 h after admission. The primary endpoint was the development of ACS within 1 month. The secondary endpoints included cardiovascular death and death from any cause within 1 month. The χ-test showed that the rates of ACS at 1 month were 1.1% (n=1) in the aspirin group and 10.6% (n=10) in the control group (relative risk, 0.103; 95% confidence interval 0.005-0.746; P=0.015). Aspirin therapy was associated with a 9% absolute reduction in the risk for ACS. There was no significant decrease in the risk of death from any cause (P=0.151), but the aspirin group had a decreased risk of cardiovascular death (risk reduction: 0.04, P=0.044). This randomized open-label study shows that acetyl salicylic acid is beneficial in the reduction of ACS and cardiovascular mortality among patients with pneumonia.

Genotype-Specific Minimal Residual Disease Interpretation Improves Stratification in Pediatric Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia

PubMed Central

O’Connor, David; Enshaei, Amir; Bartram, Jack; Hancock, Jeremy; Harrison, Christine J.; Hough, Rachael; Samarasinghe, Sujith; Schwab, Claire; Vora, Ajay; Wade, Rachel; Moppett, John; Moorman, Anthony V.; Goulden, Nick

2018-01-01

Purpose Minimal residual disease (MRD) and genetic abnormalities are important risk factors for outcome in acute lymphoblastic leukemia. Current risk algorithms dichotomize MRD data and do not assimilate genetics when assigning MRD risk, which reduces predictive accuracy. The aim of our study was to exploit the full power of MRD by examining it as a continuous variable and to integrate it with genetics. Patients and Methods We used a population-based cohort of 3,113 patients who were treated in UKALL2003, with a median follow-up of 7 years. MRD was evaluated by polymerase chain reaction analysis of Ig/TCR gene rearrangements, and patients were assigned to a genetic subtype on the basis of immunophenotype, cytogenetics, and fluorescence in situ hybridization. To examine response kinetics at the end of induction, we log-transformed the absolute MRD value and examined its distribution across subgroups. Results MRD was log normally distributed at the end of induction. MRD distributions of patients with distinct genetic subtypes were different (P < .001). Patients with good-risk cytogenetics demonstrated the fastest disease clearance, whereas patients with high-risk genetics and T-cell acute lymphoblastic leukemia responded more slowly. The risk of relapse was correlated with MRD kinetics, and each log reduction in disease level reduced the risk by 20% (hazard ratio, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.77 to 0.83; P < .001). Although the risk of relapse was directly proportional to the MRD level within each genetic risk group, absolute relapse rate that was associated with a specific MRD value or category varied significantly by genetic subtype. Integration of genetic subtype–specific MRD values allowed more refined risk group stratification. Conclusion A single threshold for assigning patients to an MRD risk group does not reflect the response kinetics of the different genetic subtypes. Future risk algorithms should integrate genetics with MRD to accurately identify patients with the lowest and highest risk of relapse. PMID:29131699

Using lean to improve medication administration safety: in search of the "perfect dose".

PubMed

Ching, Joan M; Long, Christina; Williams, Barbara L; Blackmore, C Craig

2013-05-01

At Virginia Mason Medical Center (Seattle), the Collaborative Alliance for Nursing Outcomes (CALNOC) Medication Administration Accuracy Quality Study was used in combination with Lean quality improvement efforts to address medication administration safety. Lean interventions were targeted at improving the medication room layout, applying visual controls, and implementing nursing standard work. The interventions were designed to prevent medication administration errors through improving six safe practices: (1) comparing medication with medication administration record, (2) labeling medication, (3) checking two forms of patient identification, (4) explaining medication to patient, (5) charting medication immediately, and (6) protecting the process from distractions/interruptions. Trained nurse auditors observed 9,244 doses for 2,139 patients. Following the intervention, the number of safe-practice violations decreased from 83 violations/100 doses at baseline (January 2010-March 2010) to 42 violations/100 doses at final follow-up (July 2011-September 2011), resulting in an absolute risk reduction of 42 violations/100 doses (95% confidence interval [CI]: 35-48), p < .001). The number of medication administration errors decreased from 10.3 errors/100 doses at baseline to 2.8 errors/100 doses at final follow-up (absolute risk reduction: 7 violations/100 doses [95% CI: 5-10, p < .001]). The "perfect dose" score, reflecting compliance with all six safe practices and absence of any of the eight medication administration errors, improved from 37 in compliance/100 doses at baseline to 68 in compliance/100 doses at the final follow-up. Lean process improvements coupled with direct observation can contribute to substantial decreases in errors in nursing medication administration.

Patients' preferences shed light on the murky world of guideline-based medicine.

PubMed

Penston, James

2007-02-01

Concordance--that is, shared decision-making between doctors and patients--is nowadays accepted as an integral part of good clinical practice. It is of particular importance in the case of treatments with only marginal benefits such as those recommended in guidelines for the management of common, chronic diseases. However, the implementation of guideline-based medicine conflicts with that of concordance. Studies indicate that patients are not adequately informed about their treatment. Clinical guidelines for conditions such as cardiovascular disease are based on large-scale randomized trials and the complex nature of the data limits effective communication especially in an environment characterized by time constraints. But other factors may be more relevant, notably pressures to comply with guidelines and financial rewards for meeting targets: it is simply not in the interests of doctors to disclose accurate information. Studies show that patients are far from impressed by the small benefits derived from large scale trials. Indeed, faced with absolute risk reductions, patients decline treatment promoted by guidelines. To participate in clinical decisions, patients require unbiased information concerning outcomes with and without treatment, and the absolute risk reduction; they should be told that most patients receiving long-term medication obtain no benefit despite being exposed to adverse drug reactions; furthermore, they should be made aware of the questionable validity of large-scale trials and that these studies may be influenced by those with a vested interest. Genuine concordance will inevitably lead to many patients rejecting the recommendations of guidelines and encourage a more critical approach to clinical research and guideline-based medicine.

Explaining trends in coronary heart disease mortality in different socioeconomic groups in Denmark 1991-2007 using the IMPACTSEC model.

PubMed

Joensen, Albert Marni; Joergensen, Torben; Lundbye-Christensen, Søren; Johansen, Martin Berg; Guzman-Castillo, Maria; Bandosz, Piotr; Hallas, Jesper; Prescott, Eva Irene Bossano; Capewell, Simon; O'Flaherty, Martin

2018-01-01

To quantify the contribution of changes in different risk factors population levels and treatment uptake on the decline in CHD mortality in Denmark from 1991 to 2007 in different socioeconomic groups. We used IMPACTSEC, a previously validated policy model using data from different population registries. All adults aged 25-84 years living in Denmark in 1991 and 2007. Deaths prevented or postponed (DPP). There were approximately 11,000 fewer CHD deaths in Denmark in 2007 than would be expected if the 1991 mortality rates had persisted. Higher mortality rates were observed in the lowest socioeconomic quintile. The highest absolute reduction in CHD mortality was seen in this group but the highest relative reduction was in the most affluent socioeconomic quintile. Overall, the IMPACTSEC model explained nearly two thirds of the decline in. Improved treatments accounted for approximately 25% with the least relative mortality reduction in the most deprived quintile. Risk factor improvements accounted for approximately 40% of the mortality decrease with similar gains across all socio-economic groups. The 36% gap in explaining all DPPs may reflect inaccurate data or risk factors not quantified in the current model. According to the IMPACTSEC model, the largest contribution to the CHD mortality decline in Denmark from 1991 to 2007 was from improvements in risk factors, with similar gains across all socio-economic groups. However, we found a clear socioeconomic trend for the treatment contribution favouring the most affluent groups.

A randomized trial of decision-making in asymptomatic carotid stenosis.

PubMed

Silver, B; Zaman, I F; Ashraf, K; Majed, Y; Norwood, E M; Schuh, L A; Smith, B J; Smith, R E; Schultz, L R

2012-01-31

We sought to evaluate whether different presentation formats, presenter characteristics, and patient characteristics affect decision-making in asymptomatic carotid stenosis. Subjects included individuals presenting to a neurology clinic. Participants included those over age 18 without known carotid stenosis. Subjects were randomized to a 30-second video with 1 of 5 presentation formats (absolute risk, absolute event-free survival, annualized absolute risk, relative risk, and a qualitative description) delivered by 1 of 4 presenter physicians (black woman, white woman, black man, white man). Subjects then completed a one-page form regarding background demographics and their decision regarding treatment choice. A total of 409 subjects watched the video and completed the survey. Overall, 48.4% of subjects chose surgery. Presentation format strongly predicted choice of surgery (qualitative [64%], relative risk [63%], absolute risk [43%], absolute event-free survival [37%], and annualized absolute risk [35%], p < 0.001). There was a trend for younger age (mean age 52 vs 55, p = 0.054), male gender (53% vs 45%, p = 0.08), and advanced education (42% for high school education or less vs 52% for more than high school education, p = 0.052) to predict surgery choice. Gender and race of presenter, and race of subject, had no influence on the choice of treatment. Presentation format (information framing) strongly determines patient decision-making in asymptomatic carotid stenosis. Subject age, gender, and education level may also influence the decision. Clinicians should consider the influence of these variables when counseling patients.

A randomized noninferiority trial of standard versus enhanced risk reduction and adherence counseling for individuals receiving post-exposure prophylaxis following sexual exposures to HIV.

PubMed

Roland, Michelle E; Neilands, Torsten B; Krone, Melissa R; Coates, Thomas J; Franses, Karena; Chesney, Margaret A; Kahn, James S; Martin, Jeffrey N

2011-07-01

The National HIV/AIDS Strategy proposes to scale-up post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP). Intensive risk reduction and adherence counseling appear to be effective but are resource intensive. Identifying simpler interventions that maximize the HIV prevention potential of PEP is critical. A randomized noninferiority study comparing 2 (standard) or 5 (enhanced) risk reduction counseling sessions was performed. Adherence counseling was provided in the enhanced arm. We measured changes in unprotected sexual intercourse acts at 12 months, compared with baseline; HIV acquisition; and PEP adherence. Outcomes were stratified by degree of baseline risk. We enrolled 457 individuals reporting unprotected intercourse within 72 h with an HIV-infected or at-risk partner. Participants were 96% male and 71% white. There were 1.8 and 2.3 fewer unprotected sex acts in the standard and enhanced groups. The maximum potential risk difference, reflected by the upper bound of the 95% confidence interval, was 3.9 acts. The difference in the riskier subset may have been as many as 19.6 acts. The incidence of HIV seroconversion was 2.9% and 2.6% among persons randomized to standard and enhanced counseling, respectively, with a maximum potential difference of 3.4%. The absolute and maximal HIV seroconversion incidence was 9.9% and 20.4% greater in the riskier group randomized to standard, compared with enhanced, counseling. Adherence outcomes were similar, with noninferiority in the lower risk group and concerning differences among the higher-risk group. Risk assessment is critical at PEP initiation. Standard counseling is only noninferior for individuals with lower baseline risk; thus, enhanced counseling should be targeted to individuals at higher risk. © The Author 2011. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved.

Carotid intima-media thickness and plaque in apparently healthy Japanese individuals with an estimated 10-year absolute risk of CAD death according to the Japan Atherosclerosis Society (JAS) guidelines 2012: the Shiga Epidemiological Study of Subclinical Atherosclerosis (SESSA).

PubMed

Kadota, Aya; Miura, Katsuyuki; Okamura, Tomonori; Fujiyoshi, Akira; Ohkubo, Takayoshi; Kadowaki, Takashi; Takashima, Naoyuki; Hisamatsu, Takashi; Nakamura, Yasuyuki; Kasagi, Fumiyoshi; Maegawa, Hiroshi; Kashiwagi, Atsunori; Ueshima, Hirotsugu

2013-01-01

To examine whether subclinical atherosclerosis of the carotid arteries is concordant with the categories in the 2012 atherosclerosis prevention guidelines proposed by the Japan Atherosclerosis Society (JAS guidelines 2012), which adopted the estimated 10-year absolute risk of coronary artery disease (CAD) death in the NIPPON DATA80 Risk Assessment Chart. Between 2006 and 2008, 868 Japanese men 40 to 74 years of age without a history of cardiovascular disease were randomly selected from Kusatsu City, Japan. The intima media thickness (IMT) and plaque number from the common to internal carotid arteries were investigated using ultrasonography. The absolute risk of CAD death was estimated based on the individual risk factor data, and the mean IMT and plaque number in Categories Ⅰ, Ⅱ and Ⅲ of the guidelines were examined. The estimated 10-year absolute risk of CAD was directly related to the IMT (mean IMT (mean ± SD) (mm) for a 10-year absolute risk of ≥ 2.0% and ≥ 5.0%: 0.88 ± 0.18 and 0.95 ± 0.19, respectively) and the plaque number. These results are compatible with the categories described by the guidelines (mean IMT (mean ± SD) (mm) for Categories Ⅰ, Ⅱ, and Ⅲ: 0.70 ± 0.11, 0.81 ± 0.16 and 0.88 ± 0.18, respectively; mean plaque number: 0.9, 2.1 and 3, respectively). These findings were similar for Category Ⅲ participants with or without DM and CKD. Subclinical atherosclerosis of the carotid arteries is concordant with the 10-year absolute risk of CAD and the categories in the JAS guidelines 2012.

What do men understand about lifetime risk following genetic testing? The effect of context and numeracy.

PubMed

Rolison, Jonathan J; Hanoch, Yaniv; Miron-Shatz, Talya

2012-07-01

Genetic testing for gene mutations associated with specific cancers provides an opportunity for early detection, surveillance, and intervention (Smith, Cokkinides, & Brawley, 2008). Lifetime risk estimates provided by genetic testing refer to the risk of developing a specific disease within one's lifetime, and evidence suggests that this is important for the medical choices people make, as well as their future family and financial plans. The present studies tested whether adult men understand the lifetime risks of prostate cancer informed by genetic testing. In 2 experiments, adult men were asked to interpret the lifetime risk information provided in statements about risks of prostate cancer. Statement format was manipulated such that the most appropriate interpretation of risk statements referred to an absolute risk of cancer in experiment 1 and a relative risk in experiment 2. Experiment 1 revealed that few men correctly interpreted the lifetime risks of cancer when these refer to an absolute risk of cancer, and numeracy levels positively predicted correct responding. The proportion of correct responses was greatly improved in experiment 2 when the most appropriate interpretation of risk statements referred instead to a relative rather than an absolute risk, and numeracy levels were less involved. Understanding of lifetime risk information is often poor because individuals incorrectly believe that these refer to relative rather than absolute risks of cancer.

Community-wide cardiovascular disease prevention programs and health outcomes in a rural county, 1970-2010.

PubMed

Record, N Burgess; Onion, Daniel K; Prior, Roderick E; Dixon, David C; Record, Sandra S; Fowler, Fenwick L; Cayer, Gerald R; Amos, Christopher I; Pearson, Thomas A

2015-01-13

Few comprehensive cardiovascular risk reduction programs, particularly those in rural, low-income communities, have sustained community-wide interventions for more than 10 years and demonstrated the effect of risk factor improvements on reductions in morbidity and mortality. To document health outcomes associated with an integrated, comprehensive cardiovascular risk reduction program in Franklin County, Maine, a low-income rural community. Forty-year observational study involving residents of Franklin County, Maine, a rural, low-income population of 22,444 in 1970, that used the preceding decade as a baseline and compared Franklin County with other Maine counties and state averages. Community-wide programs targeting hypertension, cholesterol, and smoking, as well as diet and physical activity, sponsored by multiple community organizations, including the local hospital and clinicians. Resident participation; hypertension and hyperlipidemia detection, treatment, and control; smoking quit rates; hospitalization rates from 1994 through 2006, adjusted for median household income; and mortality rates from 1970 through 2010, adjusted for household income and age. More than 150,000 individual county resident contacts occurred over 40 years. Over time, as cardiovascular risk factor programs were added, relevant health indicators improved. Hypertension control had an absolute increase of 24.7% (95% CI, 21.6%-27.7%) from 18.3% to 43.0%, from 1975 to 1978; later, elevated cholesterol control had an absolute increase of 28.5% (95% CI, 25.3%-31.6%) from 0.4% to 28.9%, from 1986 to 2010. Smoking quit rates improved from 48.5% to 69.5%, better than state averages (observed - expected [O - E], 11.3%; 95% CI, 5.5%-17.7%; P < .001), 1996-2000; these differences later disappeared when Maine's overall quit rate increased. Franklin County hospitalizations per capita were less than expected for the measured period, 1994-2006 (O - E, -17 discharges/1000 residents; 95% CI -20.1 to -13.9; P < .001). Franklin was the only Maine county with consistently lower adjusted mortality than predicted over the time periods 1970-1989 and 1990-2010 (O - E, -60.4 deaths/100,000; 95% CI, -97.9 to -22.8; P < .001, and -41.6/100,000; 95% CI, -77.3 to -5.8; P = .005, respectively). Sustained, community-wide programs targeting cardiovascular risk factors and behavior changes to improve a Maine county's population health were associated with reductions in hospitalization and mortality rates over 40 years, compared with the rest of the state. Further studies are needed to assess the generalizability of such programs to other US county populations, especially rural ones, and to other parts of the world.

Obsolete tobacco control themes can be hazardous to public health: the need for updating views on absolute product risks and harm reduction.

PubMed

Kozlowski, Lynn T; Abrams, David B

2016-05-24

Leading themes have guided tobacco control efforts, and these themes have changed over the decades. When questions arose about health risks of tobacco, they focused on two key themes: 1) how bad is the problem (i.e., absolute risk) and 2) what can be done to reduce the risk without cessation (i.e., prospects for harm reduction). Using the United States since 1964 as an example, we outline the leading themes that have arisen in response to these two questions. Initially, there was the recognition that "cigarettes are hazardous to health" and an acceptance of safer alternative tobacco products (cigars, pipes, light/lower-tar cigarettes). In the 1980s there was the creation of the seminal theme that "Cigarettes are lethal when used as intended and kill more people than heroin, cocaine, alcohol, AIDS, fires, homicide, suicide, and automobile crashes combined." By around 2000, support for a less-dangerous light/lower tar cigarette was gone, and harm reduction claims were avoided for products like cigars and even for smokeless tobacco which were summarized as "unsafe" or "not a safe alternative to cigarettes." The Surgeon General in 2014 concluded that by far the greatest danger to public health was from cigarettes and other combusted products. At the same time the evidence base for smokeless tobacco and alternative nicotine delivery systems (ANDS) had grown. Product innovation and tobacco/nicotine bio-behavioral, epidemiological and public health sciences demonstrate that low nitrosamine smokeless tobacco (e.g., Swedish snus), and ANDS have substantially lower harms than cigarettes. Going forward, it is important to sharpen themes and key messages of tobacco control, while continuing to emphasize the extreme lethality of the inhaled smoke from cigarettes or from use of any combusting tobacco product. Implications of updating the leading themes for regulation, policymaking and advocacy in tobacco control are proposed as an important next step. A new reframing can align action plans to more powerfully and rapidly achieve population-level benefit and minimize harm to eliminate in our lifetime the use of the most deadly combustible tobacco products and thus prevent the premature deaths of 1 billion people projected to occur worldwide by 2100.

Daily oral tenofovir and emtricitabine-tenofovir preexposure prophylaxis reduces herpes simplex virus type 2 acquisition among heterosexual HIV-1-uninfected men and women: a subgroup analysis of a randomized trial.

PubMed

Celum, Connie; Morrow, Rhoda A; Donnell, Deborah; Hong, Ting; Hendrix, Craig W; Thomas, Katherine K; Fife, Kenneth H; Nakku-Joloba, Edith; Mujugira, Andrew; Baeten, Jared M

2014-07-01

Daily oral preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) using the antiretroviral tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) alone or in combination with emtricitabine (FTC-TDF) reduces the risk for HIV-1 acquisition. Tenofovir has in vitro activity against herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2). To assess the efficacy of daily oral PrEP with tenofovir and FTC-TDF in the prevention of HSV-2 acquisition. Subgroup analysis of data from a randomized, placebo-controlled trial with concealed allocation. (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT00557245). Multiple sites in Kenya and Uganda. Heterosexual men and women who were seronegative for HIV-1 and HSV-2 and at high risk for HIV-1 acquisition due to having an HIV-1-infected partner. Once-daily oral tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF), alone or combined with emtricitabine (FTC-TDF), compared with placebo. HSV-2 seroconversion. A total of 131 participants seroconverted to HSV-2 (79 of 1041 assigned to tenofovir or FTC-TDF PrEP [HSV-2 incidence, 5.6 per 100 person-years] and 52 of 481 assigned to placebo [HSV-2 incidence, 7.7 per 100 person-years]). The hazard ratio (HR) for HSV-2 acquisition with daily oral PrEP was 0.70 (95% CI, 0.49 to 0.99; P = 0.047) compared with placebo, and the absolute risk reduction was 2.1 per 100 person-years. Among the 1044 participants with HSV-2-infected partners, the HR for PrEP was 0.67 (CI, 0.46 to 0.98; P = 0.038) compared with placebo, and the absolute risk reduction was 3.1 per 100 person-years. Randomization was not stratified by HSV-2 status, and diagnostic tests to exclude participants with acute HSV-2 at baseline are not available. Daily oral tenofovir-based PrEP significantly reduced the risk for HSV-2 acquisition among heterosexual men and women. Modest protection against HSV-2 is an added benefit of HIV-1 prevention with oral tenofovir-based PrEP. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Regulatory cells, cytokine pattern and clinical risk factors for asthma in infants and young children with recurrent wheeze.

PubMed

Borrego, L M; Arroz, M J; Videira, P; Martins, C; Guimarães, H; Nunes, G; Papoila, A L; Trindade, H

2009-08-01

Several risk factors for asthma have been identified in infants and young children with recurrent wheeze. However, published literature has reported contradictory findings regarding the underlying immunological mechanisms. This study was designed to assess and compare the immunological status during the first 2 years in steroid-naive young children with >or= three episodes of physician-confirmed wheeze (n=50), with and without clinical risk factors for developing subsequent asthma (i.e. parental asthma or a personal history of eczema and/or two of the following: wheezing without colds, a personal history of allergic rhinitis and peripheral blood eosinophilia >4%), with age-matched healthy controls (n=30). Peripheral blood CD4(+)CD25(+) and CD4(+)CD25(high) T cells and their cytotoxic T-lymphocyte-associated antigen-4 (CTLA-4), GITR and Foxp3 expression were analysed by flow cytometry. Cytokine (IFN-gamma, TGF-beta and IL-10), CTLA-4 and Foxp3 mRNA expression were evaluated (real-time PCR) after peripheral blood mononuclear cell stimulation with phorbol 12-myristate 13-acetate (PMA) (24 h) and house dust mite (HDM) extracts (7th day). Flow cytometry results showed a significant reduction in the absolute number of CD4(+)CD25(high) and the absolute and percentage numbers of CD4(+)CD25(+)CTLA-4(+) in wheezy children compared with healthy controls. Wheezy children at a high risk of developing asthma had a significantly lower absolute number of CD4(+)CD25(+) (P=0.01) and CD4(+)CD25(high) (P=0.04), compared with those at a low risk. After PMA stimulation, CTLA-4 (P=0.03) and Foxp3 (P=0.02) expression was diminished in wheezy children compared with the healthy children. After HDM stimulation, CTLA-4 (P=0.03) and IFN-gamma (P=0.04) expression was diminished in wheezy children compared with healthy children. High-risk children had lower expression of IFN-gamma (P=0.03) compared with low-risk and healthy children and lower expression of CTLA-4 (P=0.01) compared with healthy children. Although our findings suggest that some immunological parameters are impaired in children with recurrent wheeze, particularly with a high risk for asthma, further studies are needed in order to assess their potential as surrogate predictor factors for asthma in early life.

How are lung cancer risk perceptions and cigarette smoking related?-testing an accuracy hypothesis.

PubMed

Chen, Lei-Shih; Kaphingst, Kimberly A; Tseng, Tung-Sung; Zhao, Shixi

2016-10-01

Subjective risk perception is an important theoretical construct in the field of cancer prevention and control. Although the relationship between subjective risk perception and health behaviors has been widely studied in many health contexts, the causalities and associations between the risk perception of developing lung cancer and cigarette smoking have been inconsistently reported among studies. Such inconsistency may be from discrepancies between study designs (cross-sectional versus longitudinal designs) and the three hypotheses (i.e., the behavior motivation hypothesis, the risk reappraisals hypothesis, and the accuracy hypothesis) testing different underlying associations between risk perception and cigarette-smoking behaviors. To clarify this issue, as an initial step, we examined the association between absolute and relative risk perceptions of developing lung cancer and cigarette-smoking behaviors among a large, national representative sample of 1,680 U.S. adults by testing an accuracy hypothesis (i.e., people who smoke accurately perceived a higher risk of developing lung cancer). Data from the U.S. Health Information National Trends Survey (HINTS) were analyzed using logistic regression and multivariate linear regression to examine the associations between risk perception and cigarette-smoking behaviors among 1,680 U.S. adults. Findings from this cross-sectional survey suggest that absolute and relative risk perceptions were positively and significantly correlated with having smoked >100 cigarettes during lifetime and the frequency of cigarette smoking. Only absolute risk perception was significantly associated with the number of cigarettes smoked per day among current smokers. Because both absolute and relative risk perceptions are positively related to most cigarette-smoking behaviors, this study supports the accuracy hypothesis. Moreover, absolute risk perception might be a more sensitive measurement than relative risk perception for perceived lung cancer risk. Longitudinal research is needed in the future to investigate other types of risk perception-risk behavior hypotheses-the behavior motivation and the risk reappraisals hypotheses-among nationally representative samples to further examine the causations between risk perception of obtaining lung cancer and smoking behaviors.

Prescription errors before and after introduction of electronic medication alert system in a pediatric emergency department.

PubMed

Sethuraman, Usha; Kannikeswaran, Nirupama; Murray, Kyle P; Zidan, Marwan A; Chamberlain, James M

2015-06-01

Prescription errors occur frequently in pediatric emergency departments (PEDs).The effect of computerized physician order entry (CPOE) with electronic medication alert system (EMAS) on these is unknown. The objective was to compare prescription errors rates before and after introduction of CPOE with EMAS in a PED. The hypothesis was that CPOE with EMAS would significantly reduce the rate and severity of prescription errors in the PED. A prospective comparison of a sample of outpatient, medication prescriptions 5 months before and after CPOE with EMAS implementation (7,268 before and 7,292 after) was performed. Error types and rates, alert types and significance, and physician response were noted. Medication errors were deemed significant if there was a potential to cause life-threatening injury, failure of therapy, or an adverse drug effect. There was a significant reduction in the errors per 100 prescriptions (10.4 before vs. 7.3 after; absolute risk reduction = 3.1, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.2 to 4.0). Drug dosing error rates decreased from 8 to 5.4 per 100 (absolute risk reduction = 2.6, 95% CI = 1.8 to 3.4). Alerts were generated for 29.6% of prescriptions, with 45% involving drug dose range checking. The sensitivity of CPOE with EMAS in identifying errors in prescriptions was 45.1% (95% CI = 40.8% to 49.6%), and the specificity was 57% (95% CI = 55.6% to 58.5%). Prescribers modified 20% of the dosing alerts, resulting in the error not reaching the patient. Conversely, 11% of true dosing alerts for medication errors were overridden by the prescribers: 88 (11.3%) resulted in medication errors, and 684 (88.6%) were false-positive alerts. A CPOE with EMAS was associated with a decrease in overall prescription errors in our PED. Further system refinements are required to reduce the high false-positive alert rates. © 2015 by the Society for Academic Emergency Medicine.

Monitoring environmental burden reduction from household waste prevention.

PubMed

Matsuda, Takeshi; Hirai, Yasuhiro; Asari, Misuzu; Yano, Junya; Miura, Takahiro; Ii, Ryota; Sakai, Shin-Ichi

2018-01-01

In this study, the amount of prevented household waste in Kyoto city was quantified using three methods. Subsequently, the greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction by waste prevention was calculated in order to monitor the impact of waste prevention. The methods of quantification were "relative change from baseline year (a)," "absolute change from potential waste generation (b)," and "absolute amount of activities (c)." Method (a) was popular for measuring waste prevention, but method (b) was the original approach to determine the absolute amount of waste prevention by estimating the potential waste generation. Method (c) also provided the absolute value utilizing the information of activities. Methods (b) and (c) enable the evaluation of the waste prevention activities with a similar baseline for recycling. Methods (b) and (c) gave significantly higher GHG reductions than method (a) because of the difference in baseline between them. Therefore, setting a baseline is very important for evaluating waste prevention. In practice, when focusing on the monitoring of a specific policy or campaign, method (a) is an appropriate option. On the other hand, when comparing the total impact of waste prevention to that of recycling, methods (b) and (c) should be applied. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Preconceptional motivational interviewing interventions to reduce alcohol-exposed pregnancy risk.

PubMed

Ingersoll, Karen S; Ceperich, Sherry D; Hettema, Jennifer E; Farrell-Carnahan, Leah; Penberthy, J Kim

2013-04-01

Alcohol exposed pregnancy (AEP) is a leading cause of preventable birth defects. While randomized controlled trials (RCTs) have shown that multi-session motivational interviewing-based interventions reduce AEP risk, a one-session intervention could facilitate broader implementation. The purposes of this study were to: (1) test a one-session motivational AEP prevention intervention for community women and (2) compare outcomes to previous RCTs. Participants at risk for AEP (N=217) were randomized to motivational interviewing+assessment feedback (EARLY), informational video, or informational brochure conditions. Outcomes were drinks per drinking day (DDD), ineffective contraception rate, and AEP risk at 3 and 6 months. All interventions were associated with decreased DDD, ineffective contraception rate, and AEP risk. Participants who received EARLY had larger absolute risk reductions in ineffective contraception and AEP risk, but not DDD. Effect sizes were compared to previous RCTs. The one-session EARLY intervention had less powerful effects than multi-session AEP prevention interventions among community women, but may provide a new option in a continuum of preventive care. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Absolute rather than relative income is a better socioeconomic predictor of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in Swedish adults.

PubMed

Axelsson Fisk, Sten; Merlo, Juan

2017-05-04

While psychosocial theory claims that socioeconomic status (SES), acting through social comparisons, has an important influence on susceptibility to disease, materialistic theory says that socioeconomic position (SEP) and related access to material resources matter more. However, the relative role of SEP versus SES in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) risk has still not been examined. We investigated the association between SES/SEP and COPD risk among 667 094 older adults, aged 55 to 60, residing in Sweden between 2006 and 2011. Absolute income in five groups by population quintiles depicted SEP and relative income expressed as quintile groups within each absolute income group represented SES. We performed sex-stratified logistic regression models to estimate odds ratios and the area under the receiver operator curve (AUC) to compare the discriminatory accuracy of SES and SEP in relation to COPD. Even though both absolute (SEP) and relative income (SES) were associated with COPD risk, only absolute income (SEP) presented a clear gradient, so the poorest had a three-fold higher COPD risk than the richest individuals. While the AUC for a model including only age was 0.54 and 0.55 when including relative income (SES), it increased to 0.65 when accounting for absolute income (SEP). SEP rather than SES demonstrated a consistent association with COPD. Our study supports the materialistic theory. Access to material resources seems more relevant to COPD risk than the consequences of low relative income.

Comparison of evidence on harms of medical interventions in randomized and nonrandomized studies

PubMed Central

Papanikolaou, Panagiotis N.; Christidi, Georgia D.; Ioannidis, John P.A.

2006-01-01

Background Information on major harms of medical interventions comes primarily from epidemiologic studies performed after licensing and marketing. Comparison with data from large-scale randomized trials is occasionally feasible. We compared evidence from randomized trials with that from epidemiologic studies to determine whether they give different estimates of risk for important harms of medical interventions. Methods We targeted well-defined, specific harms of various medical interventions for which data were already available from large-scale randomized trials (> 4000 subjects). Nonrandomized studies involving at least 4000 subjects addressing these same harms were retrieved through a search of MEDLINE. We compared the relative risks and absolute risk differences for specific harms in the randomized and nonrandomized studies. Results Eligible nonrandomized studies were found for 15 harms for which data were available from randomized trials addressing the same harms. Comparisons of relative risks between the study types were feasible for 13 of the 15 topics, and of absolute risk differences for 8 topics. The estimated increase in relative risk differed more than 2-fold between the randomized and nonrandomized studies for 7 (54%) of the 13 topics; the estimated increase in absolute risk differed more than 2-fold for 5 (62%) of the 8 topics. There was no clear predilection for randomized or nonrandomized studies to estimate greater relative risks, but usually (75% [6/8]) the randomized trials estimated larger absolute excess risks of harm than the nonrandomized studies did. Interpretation Nonrandomized studies are often conservative in estimating absolute risks of harms. It would be useful to compare and scrutinize the evidence on harms obtained from both randomized and nonrandomized studies. PMID:16505459

Effect of induction chemotherapy on estimated risk of radiation pneumonitis in bulky non–small cell lung cancer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Amin, Neha P., E-mail: npamin@gmail.com; Miften, Moyed; Thornton, Dale

2013-10-01

Patients with bulky non–small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) may be at a high risk for radiation pneumonitis (RP) if treated with up-front concurrent chemoradiation. There is limited information about the effect of induction chemotherapy on the volume of normal lung subsequently irradiated. This study aims to estimate the reduction in risk of RP in patients with NSCLC after receiving induction chemotherapy. Between 2004 and 2009, 25 patients with Stage IV NSCLC were treated with chemotherapy alone (no surgery or radiation therapy [RT]) and had computed tomography (CT) scans before and after 2 cycles of chemotherapy. Simulated RT plans were createdmore » for the prechemotherapy and postchemotherapy scans so as to deliver 60 Gy to the thoracic disease in patients who had either a >20% volumetric increase or decrease in gross tumor volume (GTV) from chemotherapy. The prechemotherapy and postchemotherapy scans were analyzed to compare the percentage of lung volume receiving≥20 Gy (V20), mean lung dose (MLD), and normal tissue complication probability (NTCP). Eight patients (32%) had a GTV reduction >20%, 2 (8%) had GTV increase >20%, and 15 (60%) had stable GTV. In the 8 responders, there was an absolute median GTV decrease of 88.1 cc (7.3 to 351.6 cc) or a 48% (20% to 62%) relative reduction in tumor burden. One had >20% tumor progression during chemotherapy, yet had an improvement in dosimetric parameters postchemotherapy. Among these 9 patients, the median decrease in V20, MLD, and NTCP was 2.6% (p<0.01), 2.1 Gy (p<0.01), and 5.6% (p<0.01), respectively. Less than one-third of patients with NSCLC obtain >20% volumetric tumor reduction from chemotherapy alone. Even with that amount of volumetric reduction, the 5% reduced risk of RP was only modest and did not convert previously ineligible patients to safely receive definitive thoracic RT.« less

12 CFR Appendix B to Part 3 - Risk-Based Capital Guidelines; Market Risk Adjustment

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

...-zero specific risk capital charge. (A) For covered debt positions that are derivatives, a bank must... (including derivatives) in identical debt issues or indices. (iii) A bank must multiply the absolute value of... multiply the absolute value of the current market value of each net long or short covered equity position...

Efficacy and Safety of Edoxaban in Elderly Patients With Atrial Fibrillation in the ENGAGE AF-TIMI 48 Trial.

PubMed

Kato, Eri Toda; Giugliano, Robert P; Ruff, Christian T; Koretsune, Yukihiro; Yamashita, Takeshi; Kiss, Robert Gabor; Nordio, Francesco; Murphy, Sabina A; Kimura, Tetsuya; Jin, James; Lanz, Hans; Mercuri, Michele; Braunwald, Eugene; Antman, Elliott M

2016-05-20

Elderly patients with atrial fibrillation are at higher risk of both ischemic and bleeding events compared to younger patients. In a prespecified analysis from the ENGAGE AF-TIMI 48 trial, we evaluate clinical outcomes with edoxaban versus warfarin according to age. Twenty-one thousand one-hundred and five patients enrolled in the ENGAGE AF-TIMI 48 trial were stratified into 3 prespecified age groups: <65 (n=5497), 65 to 74 (n=7134), and ≥75 (n=8474) years. Older patients were more likely to be female, with lower body weight and reduced creatinine clearance, leading to higher rates of edoxaban dose reduction (10%, 18%, and 41% for the 3 age groups, P<0.001). Stroke or systemic embolic event (1.1%, 1.8%, and 2.3%) and major bleeding (1.8%, 3.3%, and 4.8%) rates with warfarin increased across age groups (Ptrend<0.001 for both). There were no interactions between age group and randomized treatment in the primary efficacy and safety outcomes. In the elderly (≥75 years), the rates of stroke/systemic embolic event were similar with edoxaban versus warfarin (hazard ratio 0.83 [0.66-1.04]), while major bleeding was significantly reduced with edoxaban (hazard ratio 0.83 [0.70-0.99]). The absolute risk difference in major bleeding (-82 events/10 000 pt-yrs) and in intracranial hemorrhage (-73 events/10 000 pt-yrs) both favored edoxaban over warfarin in older patients. Age has a greater influence on major bleeding than thromboembolic risk in patients with atrial fibrillation. Given the higher rates of bleeding and death with increasing age, treatment of elderly patients with edoxaban provides an even greater absolute reduction in safety events over warfarin, compared to treatment with edoxaban versus warfarin in younger patients. URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov/. Unique identifier: NCT00781391. © 2016 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley Blackwell.

Absolute versus relative measures of plasma fatty acids and health outcomes: example of phospholipid omega-3 and omega-6 fatty acids and all-cause mortality in women.

PubMed

Miura, Kyoko; Hughes, Maria Celia B; Ungerer, Jacobus P J; Smith, David D; Green, Adèle C

2018-03-01

In a well-characterised community-based prospective study, we aimed to systematically assess the differences in associations of plasma omega-3 and omega-6 fatty acid (FA) status with all-cause mortality when plasma FA status is expressed in absolute concentrations versus relative levels. In a community sample of 564 women aged 25-75 years in Queensland, Australia, baseline plasma phospholipid FA levels were measured using gas chromatography. Specific FAs analysed were eicosapentaenoic acid, docosapentaenoic acid, docosahexaenoic acid, total long-chain omega-3 FAs, linoleic acid, arachidonic acid, and total omega-6 FAs. Levels of each FA were expressed in absolute amounts (µg/mL) and relative levels (% of total FAs) and divided into thirds. Deaths were monitored for 17 years and hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals calculated to assess risk of death according to absolute versus relative plasma FA levels. In total 81 (14%) women died during follow-up. Agreement between absolute and relative measures of plasma FAs was higher in omega-3 than omega-6 FAs. The results of multivariate analyses for risk of all-cause mortality were generally similar with risk tending to inverse associations with plasma phospholipid omega-3 FAs and no association with omega-6 FAs. Sensitivity analyses examining effects of age and presence of serious medical conditions on risk of mortality did not alter findings. The directions and magnitude of associations with mortality of absolute versus relative FA levels were comparable. However, plasma FA expressed as absolute concentrations may be preferred for ease of comparison and since relative units can be deduced from absolute units.

Absolute Standard Hydrogen Electrode Potential Measured by Reduction of Aqueous Nanodrops in the Gas Phase

PubMed Central

Donald, William A.; Leib, Ryan D.; O'Brien, Jeremy T.; Bush, Matthew F.; Williams, Evan R.

2008-01-01

In solution, half-cell potentials are measured relative to those of other half cells, thereby establishing a ladder of thermochemical values that are referenced to the standard hydrogen electrode (SHE), which is arbitrarily assigned a value of exactly 0 V. Although there has been considerable interest in, and efforts toward, establishing an absolute electrochemical half-cell potential in solution, there is no general consensus regarding the best approach to obtain this value. Here, ion-electron recombination energies resulting from electron capture by gas-phase nanodrops containing individual [M(NH3)6]3+, M = Ru, Co, Os, Cr, and Ir, and Cu2+ ions are obtained from the number of water molecules that are lost from the reduced precursors. These experimental data combined with nanodrop solvation energies estimated from Born theory and solution-phase entropies estimated from limited experimental data provide absolute reduction energies for these redox couples in bulk aqueous solution. A key advantage of this approach is that solvent effects well past two solvent shells, that are difficult to model accurately, are included in these experimental measurements. By evaluating these data relative to known solution-phase reduction potentials, an absolute value for the SHE of 4.2 ± 0.4 V versus a free electron is obtained. Although not achieved here, the uncertainty of this method could potentially be reduced to below 0.1 V, making this an attractive method for establishing an absolute electrochemical scale that bridges solution and gas-phase redox chemistry. PMID:18288835

Modulating peroxisome proliferator–activated receptors for therapeutic benefit? Biology, clinical experience, and future prospects

PubMed Central

Rosenson, Robert S.; Wright, R. Scott; Farkouh, Michael; Plutzky, Jorge

2014-01-01

Clinical trials of cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus primarily have been directed at the modification of a single major risk factor; however, in trials that enroll patients with and without diabetes, the absolute risk in CVD events remains higher in patients with diabetes. Efforts to reduce the macrovascular and microvascular residual risk have been directed toward a multifactorial CVD risk-factor modification; nonetheless, long-term complications remain high. Dual-peroxisome proliferator–activated receptor (PPAR) α/γ agonists may offer opportunities to lower macrovascular and microvascular complications of type 2 diabetes mellitus beyond the reductions achieved with conventional risk-factor modification. The information presented elucidates the differentiation of compound-specific vs class-effect properties of PPARs as the basis for future development of a new candidate molecule. Prior experience with thiazolidinediones, an approved class of PPARγ agonists, and glitazars, investigational class of dual-PPARα/γ agonists, also provides important lessons about the risks and benefits of targeting a nuclear receptor while revealing some of the future challenges for regulatory approval. PMID:23137497

Explaining trends in coronary heart disease mortality in different socioeconomic groups in Denmark 1991-2007 using the IMPACTSEC model

PubMed Central

Joergensen, Torben; Bandosz, Piotr; Hallas, Jesper; Prescott, Eva Irene Bossano; Capewell, Simon

2018-01-01

Aim To quantify the contribution of changes in different risk factors population levels and treatment uptake on the decline in CHD mortality in Denmark from 1991 to 2007 in different socioeconomic groups. Design We used IMPACTSEC, a previously validated policy model using data from different population registries. Participants All adults aged 25–84 years living in Denmark in 1991 and 2007. Main outcome measure Deaths prevented or postponed (DPP). Results There were approximately 11,000 fewer CHD deaths in Denmark in 2007 than would be expected if the 1991 mortality rates had persisted. Higher mortality rates were observed in the lowest socioeconomic quintile. The highest absolute reduction in CHD mortality was seen in this group but the highest relative reduction was in the most affluent socioeconomic quintile. Overall, the IMPACTSEC model explained nearly two thirds of the decline in. Improved treatments accounted for approximately 25% with the least relative mortality reduction in the most deprived quintile. Risk factor improvements accounted for approximately 40% of the mortality decrease with similar gains across all socio-economic groups. The 36% gap in explaining all DPPs may reflect inaccurate data or risk factors not quantified in the current model. Conclusions According to the IMPACTSEC model, the largest contribution to the CHD mortality decline in Denmark from 1991 to 2007 was from improvements in risk factors, with similar gains across all socio-economic groups. However, we found a clear socioeconomic trend for the treatment contribution favouring the most affluent groups. PMID:29672537

Patients' preferences for ways to communicate benefits of cardiovascular medication.

PubMed

Goodyear-Smith, Felicity; Kenealy, Timothy; Wells, Susan; Arroll, Bruce; Horsburgh, Margaret

2011-01-01

We wanted to determine patients' willingness to take preventive cardiovascular disease (CVD) medication in relation to their 5-year CVD risk score and modes of communicating benefits of therapy. Study participants were 934 consecutive patients drawn from family practitioners' waiting rooms in Auckland, New Zealand, who knew their 5-year CVD risk (ranging from 5% to 30%) and who completed a questionnaire asking them to rate how much various modes of communicating the benefits of therapy would encourage them to take medication daily, where the benefits from medication were proportional to their estimated CVD risk score. Patients' rankings for modes of communicating the benefits of therapy were little influenced by sex, age, ethnicity, numeracy score, 5-year CVD risk, or concern about a heart attack. Patients clearly found relative risk reduction most encouraging, with absolute risk reduction rated second overall and numbers needed to treat the least likely to be persuasive, although preferences covered the full range and were not predictable from demographic or 5-year CVD risk data. Pictures were preferred to numbers by 55.1%, with a people-chart or a bar chart being equally favored. Even so, 61.8% preferred a doctor's opinion to any presentation by numbers or pictures. Patients' willingness to take preventive cardiovascular medication depends more on mode of communicating treatment benefit than on their short-term CVD risk score or their level of concern about a future cardiovascular event. Because individual preferences were not predictable, more than 1 modality is likely to be clinically useful for each patient.

Maternal vitamin D status and the risk of mild and severe preeclampsia

PubMed Central

Bodnar, Lisa M.; Simhan, Hyagriv N.; Catov, Janet M.; Roberts, James M.; Platt, Robert W.; Diesel, Jill C.; Klebanoff, Mark A.

2014-01-01

Background We sought to determine the association between maternal vitamin D status at ≤26 weeks gestation and the risk of preeclampsia separately by clinical subtype. Methods We conducted a case-cohort study among women enrolled at 12 U.S. sites from 1959 to 1966 in the Collaborative Perinatal Project. In 717 women who later developed preeclampsia (560 mild and 157 severe cases) and in 2986 mothers without preeclampsia, we measured serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D at ≤26 weeks gestation (median 20.9 weeks) over 40 years later using liquid-chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry. Results Half of women in the subcohort had 25(OH)D <50 nmol/L. Maternal 25(OH)D 50–<75 nmol/L was associated with a reduction in the absolute and relative risk of preeclampsia and mild preeclampsia compared with 25(OH)D <30 nmol/L, but the effects were no longer present after adjustment for confounders including race, prepregnancy body mass index, and parity. For severe preeclampsia, 25(OH)D ≥50 nmol/L was associated with a reduction of 3 cases per 1,000 pregnancies (adjusted RD −.003, 95% CI: −.005, .0002) and a 40% reduction in risk (adjusted RR .65, 95% CI .43, .98) compared with 25(OH)D <50 nmol/L. The conclusions were the same after restricting to women with 25(OH)D measured at <22 weeks gestation and after formal sensitivity analyses for unmeasured confounding. Conclusions Maternal vitamin D deficiency may be a risk factor for severe preeclampsia, but it is not associated with preeclampsia overall or its mild subtypes. Contemporary cohorts with large numbers of severe preeclampsia cases are needed to confirm or refute these findings. PMID:24457526

A prospective clinical trial of specialist renal nursing in the primary care setting to prevent progression of chronic kidney: a quality improvement report.

PubMed

Walker, Rachael C; Marshall, Mark R; Polaschek, Nick R

2014-09-20

Early detection and effective management of risk factors can potentially delay progression of chronic kidney disease (CKD) to end-stage kidney disease, and decrease mortality and morbidity from cardiovascular (CV) disease. We evaluated a specialist nurse-led intervention in the primary care setting to address accepted risk factors in a study sample of adults at 'high risk of CKD progression', defined as uncontrolled type II diabetes and/or hypertension and a history of poor clinic attendance. The study was a non-controlled quality improvement study with pre- and post- intervention comparisons to test feasibility and potential effectiveness. Patients within two primary care practices were screened and recruited to the study. Fifty-two patients were enrolled, with 36 completing 12-months follow-up. The intervention involved a series of sessions led by the nephrology Nurse Practitioner with assistance from practice nurses. These sessions included assessment, education and planned medication and lifestyle changes. The primary outcome measured was proteinuria (ACR), and the secondary outcomes estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and 5-year absolute CV risk. Several 'intermediary' secondary outcomes were also measured including: blood pressure, serum total cholesterol, glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA1c), body mass index (BMI), prevalence of active smoking, a variety of self-management domains, and medication prescription. Analysis of data was performed using linear and logistic regression as appropriate. There was a significant improvement in ACR (average decrease of -6.75 mg/mmol per month) over the course of the study. There was a small but significant decrease in eGFR and a reduction in 5 year absolute CV risk. Blood pressure, serum total cholesterol, and HbA1c all decreased significantly. Adherence to lifestyle advice improved with a significant reduction in prevalence of active smoking, although there was no significant change in BMI. Self-management significantly improved across all relevant domains. The results suggest that a collaborative model of care between specialist renal nurses and primary care clinicians may improve the management of risk factors for progression of CKD and CV death. Further larger, controlled studies are warranted to definitively determine the effectiveness and costs of this intervention. Australian and New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry number: ACTRN12613000791730.

Income and Social Rank Influence UK Children's Behavioral Problems: A Longitudinal Analysis.

PubMed

Garratt, Elisabeth A; Chandola, Tarani; Purdam, Kingsley; Wood, Alex M

2017-07-01

Children living in low-income households face elevated risks of behavioral problems, but the impact of absolute and relative income to this risk remains unexplored. Using the U.K. Millennium Cohort Study data, longitudinal associations between Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire scores and absolute household income, distance from the regional median and mean income, and regional income rank were examined in 3- to 12-year-olds (n = 16,532). Higher absolute household incomes were associated with lower behavioral problems, while higher income rank was associated with lower behavioral problems only at the highest absolute incomes. Higher absolute household incomes were associated with lower behavioral problems among children in working households, indicating compounding effects of income and socioeconomic advantages. Both absolute and relative incomes therefore appear to influence behavioral problems. © 2016 The Authors. Child Development © 2016 Society for Research in Child Development, Inc.

Case management reduces global vascular risk after stroke: secondary results from the The preventing recurrent vascular events and neurological worsening through intensive organized case-management randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

McAlister, Finlay A; Grover, Steven; Padwal, Raj S; Youngson, Erik; Fradette, Miriam; Thompson, Ann; Buck, Brian; Dean, Naeem; Tsuyuki, Ross T; Shuaib, Ashfaq; Majumdar, Sumit R

2014-12-01

Survivors of ischemic stroke/transient ischemic attack (TIA) are at high risk for other vascular events. We evaluated the impact of 2 types of case management (hard touch with pharmacist or soft touch with nurse) added to usual care on global vascular risk. This is a prespecified secondary analysis of a 6-month trial conducted in outpatients with recent stroke/TIA who received usual care and were randomized to additional monthly visits with either nurse case managers (who counseled patients, monitored risk factors, and communicated results to primary care physicians) or pharmacist case managers (who were also able to independently prescribe according to treatment algorithms). The Framingham Risk Score [FRS]) and the Cardiovascular Disease Life Expectancy Model (CDLEM) were used to estimate 10-year risk of any vascular event at baseline, 6 months (trial conclusion), and 12 months (6 months after last trial visit). Mean age of the 275 evaluable patients was 67.6 years. Both study arms were well balanced at baseline and exhibited reductions in absolute global vascular risk estimates at 6 months: median 4.8% (Interquartile range (IQR) 0.3%-11.3%) for the pharmacist arm versus 5.1% (IQR 1.9%-12.5%) for the nurse arm on the FRS (P = .44 between arms) and median 10.0% (0.1%-31.6%) versus 12.5% (2.1%-30.5%) on the CDLEM (P = .37). These reductions persisted at 12 months: median 6.4% (1.2%-11.6%) versus 5.5% (2.0%-12.0%) for the FRS (P = .83) and median 8.4% (0.1%-28.3%) versus 13.1% (1.6%-31.6%) on the CDLEM (P = .20). Case management by nonphysician providers is associated with improved global vascular risk in patients with recent stroke/TIA. Reductions achieved during the active phase of the trial persisted after trial conclusion. Copyright © 2014 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Reporting of Numerical and Statistical Differences in Abstracts

PubMed Central

Dryver, Eric; Hux, Janet E

2002-01-01

OBJECTIVE The reporting of relative risk reductions (RRRs) or absolute risk reductions (ARRs) to quantify binary outcomes in trials engenders differing perceptions of therapeutic efficacy, and the merits of P values versus confidence intervals (CIs) are also controversial. We describe the manner in which numerical and statistical difference in treatment outcomes is presented in published abstracts. DESIGN A descriptive study of abstracts published in 1986 and 1996 in 8 general medical and specialty journals. Inclusion criteria: controlled, intervention trials with a binary primary or secondary outcome. Seven items were recorded: raw data (outcomes for each treatment arm), measure of relative difference (e.g., RRR), ARR, number needed to treat, P value, CI, and verbal statement of statistical significance. The prevalence of these items was compared between journals and across time. RESULTS Of 5,293 abstracts, 300 met the inclusion criteria. In 1986, 60% of abstracts did not provide both the raw data and a corresponding P value or CI, while 28% failed to do so in 1Dr. Hux is a Career Scientist of the Ontario Ministry of Health and receives salary support from the Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences in Ontario.996 (P < .001; RRR of 53%; ARR of 32%; CI for ARR 21% to 43%). The variability between journals was highly significant (P < .001). In 1986, 100% of abstracts lacked a measure of absolute difference while 88% of 1996 abstracts did so (P < .001). In 1986, 98% of abstracts lacked a CI while 65% of 1996 abstracts did so (P < .001). CONCLUSIONS The provision of quantitative outcome and statistical quantitative information has significantly increased between 1986 and 1996. However, further progress can be made to make abstracts more informative. PMID:11929506

Using lean "automation with a human touch" to improve medication safety: a step closer to the "perfect dose".

PubMed

Ching, Joan M; Williams, Barbara L; Idemoto, Lori M; Blackmore, C Craig

2014-08-01

Virginia Mason Medical Center (Seattle) employed the Lean concept of Jidoka (automation with a human touch) to plan for and deploy bar code medication administration (BCMA) to hospitalized patients. Integrating BCMA technology into the nursing work flow with minimal disruption was accomplished using three steps ofJidoka: (1) assigning work to humans and machines on the basis of their differing abilities, (2) adapting machines to the human work flow, and (3) monitoring the human-machine interaction. Effectiveness of BCMA to both reinforce safe administration practices and reduce medication errors was measured using the Collaborative Alliance for Nursing Outcomes (CALNOC) Medication Administration Accuracy Quality Study methodology. Trained nurses observed a total of 16,149 medication doses for 3,617 patients in a three-year period. Following BCMA implementation, the number of safe practice violations decreased from 54.8 violations/100 doses (January 2010-September 2011) to 29.0 violations/100 doses (October 2011-December 2012), resulting in an absolute risk reduction of 25.8 violations/100 doses (95% confidence interval [CI]: 23.7, 27.9, p < .001). The number of medication errors decreased from 5.9 errors/100 doses at baseline to 3.0 errors/100 doses after BCMA implementation (absolute risk reduction: 2.9 errors/100 doses [95% CI: 2.2, 3.6,p < .001]). The number of unsafe administration practices (estimate, -5.481; standard error 1.133; p < .001; 95% CI: -7.702, -3.260) also decreased. As more hospitals respond to health information technology meaningful use incentives, thoughtful, methodical, and well-managed approaches to technology deployment are crucial. This work illustrates how Jidoka offers opportunities for a smooth transition to new technology.

Reporting of numerical and statistical differences in abstracts: improving but not optimal.

PubMed

Dryver, Eric; Hux, Janet E

2002-03-01

The reporting of relative risk reductions (RRRs) or absolute risk reductions (ARRs) to quantify binary outcomes in trials engenders differing perceptions of therapeutic efficacy, and the merits of P values versus confidence intervals (CIs) are also controversial. We describe the manner in which numerical and statistical difference in treatment outcomes is presented in published abstracts. A descriptive study of abstracts published in 1986 and 1996 in 8 general medical and specialty journals. controlled, intervention trials with a binary primary or secondary outcome. Seven items were recorded: raw data (outcomes for each treatment arm), measure of relative difference (e.g., RRR), ARR, number needed to treat, P value, CI, and verbal statement of statistical significance. The prevalence of these items was compared between journals and across time. Of 5,293 abstracts, 300 met the inclusion criteria. In 1986, 60% of abstracts did not provide both the raw data and a corresponding P value or CI, while 28% failed to do so in 1Dr. Hux is a Career Scientist of the Ontario Ministry of Health and receives salary support from the Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences in Ontario.996 ( P <.001; RRR of 53%; ARR of 32%; CI for ARR 21% to 43%). The variability between journals was highly significant ( P <.001). In 1986, 100% of abstracts lacked a measure of absolute difference while 88% of 1996 abstracts did so ( P <.001). In 1986, 98% of abstracts lacked a CI while 65% of 1996 abstracts did so ( P <.001). The provision of quantitative outcome and statistical quantitative information has significantly increased between 1986 and 1996. However, further progress can be made to make abstracts more informative.

Treatment decision-making and the form of risk communication: results of a factorial survey.

PubMed

Hembroff, Larry A; Holmes-Rovner, Margaret; Wills, Celia E

2004-11-16

Prospective users of preventive therapies often must evaluate complex information about therapeutic risks and benefits. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of relative and absolute risk information on patient decision-making in scenarios typical of health information for patients. Factorial experiments within a telephone survey of the Michigan adult, non-institutionalized, English-speaking population. Average interview lasted 23 minutes. Subjects and sample design: 952 randomly selected adults within a random-digit dial sample of Michigan households. Completion rate was 54.3%. When presented hypothetical information regarding additional risks of breast cancer from a medication to prevent a bone disease, respondents reduced their willingness to recommend a female friend take the medication compared to the baseline rate (66.8% = yes). The decrease was significantly greater with relative risk information. Additional benefit information regarding preventing heart disease from the medication increased willingness to recommend the medication to a female friend relative to the baseline scenario, but did not differ between absolute and relative risk formats. When information about both increased risk of breast cancer and reduced risk of heart disease were provided, typical respondents appeared to make rational decisions consistent with Expected Utility Theory, but the information presentation format affected choices. Those 11% - 33% making decisions contrary to the medical indications were more likely to be Hispanic, older, more educated, smokers, and to have children in the home. In scenarios typical of health risk information, relative risk information led respondents to make non-normative decisions that were "corrected" when the frame used absolute risk information. This population sample made generally rational decisions when presented with absolute risk information, even in the context of a telephone interview requiring remembering rates given. The lack of effect of gender and race suggests that a standard strategy of presenting absolute risk information may improve patient decision-making.

Radiation-induced second primary cancer risks from modern external beam radiotherapy for early prostate cancer: impact of stereotactic ablative radiotherapy (SABR), volumetric modulated arc therapy (VMAT) and flattening filter free (FFF) radiotherapy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murray, Louise J.; Thompson, Christopher M.; Lilley, John; Cosgrove, Vivian; Franks, Kevin; Sebag-Montefiore, David; Henry, Ann M.

2015-02-01

Risks of radiation-induced second primary cancer following prostate radiotherapy using 3D-conformal radiotherapy (3D-CRT), intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT), volumetric modulated arc therapy (VMAT), flattening filter free (FFF) and stereotactic ablative radiotherapy (SABR) were evaluated. Prostate plans were created using 10 MV 3D-CRT (78 Gy in 39 fractions) and 6 MV 5-field IMRT (78 Gy in 39 fractions), VMAT (78 Gy in 39 fractions, with standard flattened and energy-matched FFF beams) and SABR (42.7 Gy in 7 fractions with standard flattened and energy-matched FFF beams). Dose-volume histograms from pelvic planning CT scans of three prostate patients, each planned using all 6 techniques, were used to calculate organ equivalent doses (OED) and excess absolute risks (EAR) of second rectal and bladder cancers, and pelvic bone and soft tissue sarcomas, using mechanistic, bell-shaped and plateau models. For organs distant to the treatment field, chamber measurements recorded in an anthropomorphic phantom were used to calculate OEDs and EARs using a linear model. Ratios of OED give relative radiation-induced second cancer risks. SABR resulted in lower second cancer risks at all sites relative to 3D-CRT. FFF resulted in lower second cancer risks in out-of-field tissues relative to equivalent flattened techniques, with increasing impact in organs at greater distances from the field. For example, FFF reduced second cancer risk by up to 20% in the stomach and up to 56% in the brain, relative to the equivalent flattened technique. Relative to 10 MV 3D-CRT, 6 MV IMRT or VMAT with flattening filter increased second cancer risks in several out-of-field organs, by up to 26% and 55%, respectively. For all techniques, EARs were consistently low. The observed large relative differences between techniques, in absolute terms, were very low, highlighting the importance of considering absolute risks alongside the corresponding relative risks, since when absolute risks are very low, large relative risks become less meaningful. A calculated relative radiation-induced second cancer risk benefit from SABR and FFF techniques was theoretically predicted, although absolute radiation-induced second cancer risks were low for all techniques, and absolute differences between techniques were small.

Primary prevention of stroke and cardiovascular disease in the community (PREVENTS): Methodology of a health wellness coaching intervention to reduce stroke and cardiovascular disease risk, a randomized clinical trial.

PubMed

Mahon, Susan; Krishnamurthi, Rita; Vandal, Alain; Witt, Emma; Barker-Collo, Suzanne; Parmar, Priya; Theadom, Alice; Barber, Alan; Arroll, Bruce; Rush, Elaine; Elder, Hinemoa; Dyer, Jesse; Feigin, Valery

2018-02-01

Rationale Stroke is a major cause of death and disability worldwide, yet 80% of strokes can be prevented through modifications of risk factors and lifestyle and by medication. While management strategies for primary stroke prevention in high cardiovascular disease risk individuals are well established, they are underutilized and existing practice of primary stroke prevention are inadequate. Behavioral interventions are emerging as highly promising strategies to improve cardiovascular disease risk factor management. Health Wellness Coaching is an innovative, patient-focused and cost-effective, multidimensional psychological intervention designed to motivate participants to adhere to recommended medication and lifestyle changes and has been shown to improve health and enhance well-being. Aims and/or hypothesis To determine the effectiveness of Health Wellness Coaching for primary stroke prevention in an ethnically diverse sample including Māori, Pacific Island, New Zealand European and Asian participants. Design A parallel, prospective, randomized, open-treatment, single-blinded end-point trial. Participants include 320 adults with absolute five-year cardiovascular disease risk ≥ 10%, calculated using the PREDICT web-based clinical tool. Randomization will be to Health Wellness Coaching or usual care groups. Participants randomized to Health Wellness Coaching will receive 15 coaching sessions over nine months. Study outcomes A substantial relative risk reduction of five-year cardiovascular disease risk at nine months post-randomization, which is defined as 10% relative risk reduction among those at moderate five-year cardiovascular disease risk (10-15%) and 25% among those at high risk (>15%). Discussion This clinical trial will determine whether Health Wellness Coaching is an effective intervention for reducing modifiable risk factors, and hence decrease the risk of stroke and cardiovascular disease.

Should obese women's access to assisted fertility treatment be limited? A scientific and ethical analysis.

PubMed

Tremellen, Kelton; Wilkinson, Dominic; Savulescu, Julian

2017-10-01

Obesity is associated with a reduction in fertility treatment success and increased risks to mother and child. Therefore guidelines of the Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists (RANZCOG) suggest that a body mass index exceeding 35 kg/m 2 should be an absolute contraindication to assisted fertility treatment such as in vitro fertilisation IVF. In this paper we challenge the ethical and scientific basis for such a ban. Livebirth rates for severely obese women are reduced by up to 30%, but this result is still far better than that observed for many older women who are allowed access to IVF. This prohibition is particularly unjust when IVF is the only treatment capable of producing a pregnancy, such as bilateral tubal blockage or severe male factor infertility. Furthermore, the absolute magnitude of risks to mother or child is relatively small, and while a woman has a right to be educated about these risks, she alone should be allowed to make a decision on proceeding with treatment. We do not prohibit adults from engaging in dangerous sports, nor do we force parents to vaccinate their children, despite the risks. Similarly, we should not prohibit obese women from becoming parents because of increased risk to themselves or their child. Finally, prohibiting obese women's access to IVF to prevent potential harms such as 'fetal programing' is questionable, especially when compared to that child never being born at all. As such, we believe the RANZCOG ban on severely obese women's access to assisted reproductive treatment is unwarranted and should be revised. © 2017 The Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists.

Don't know responses to cognitive and affective risk perception measures: Exploring prevalence and socio-demographic moderators.

PubMed

Janssen, Eva; Verduyn, Philippe; Waters, Erika A

2018-05-01

Many people report uncertainty when appraising their risk of cancer and other diseases, but prior research about the topic has focused solely on cognitive risk perceptions. We investigated uncertainty related to cognitive and affective risk questions. We also explored whether any differences in uncertainty between cognitive and affective questions varied in magnitude by item-specific or socio-demographic characteristics. Secondary analysis of data collected for a 2 × 2 × 3 full-factorial risk communication experiment (N = 835) that was embedded within an online survey. We investigated the frequency of 'don't know' responses (DKR) to eight perceived risk items that varied according to whether they assessed (1) cognitive versus affective perceived risk, (2) absolute versus comparative risk, and (3) colon cancer versus 'any exercise-related diseases'. Socio-demographics were as follows: sex, age, education, family history, and numeracy. We analysed the data using multilevel logistic regression. The odds of DKR were lower for affective than cognitive perceived risk (OR = 0.64, p < .001). This difference occurred for absolute but not comparative risk perceptions (interaction effect, p = .004), but no interactions for disease type or demographic characteristics were found (ps > .05). Lower uncertainty for affective (vs. cognitive) absolute perceived risk items is consistent with research stating: (1) Risk perceptions are grounded in people's feelings about a hazard, and (2) feelings are easier for people to access than facts. Including affective perceived risk items in health behaviour surveys may reduce missing data and improve data quality. Statement of contribution What is already known on this subject? Many people report that they don't know their risk (i.e., risk uncertainty). Evidence is growing for the importance of feelings of risk in explaining health behaviour. Feelings are easier for people to access than facts. What does this study add? Don't know responding is higher for absolute cognitive than absolute affective risk questions. This difference does not vary in magnitude by demographic characteristics. Affective perceived risk questions in surveys may reduce missing data and improve data quality. © 2018 The British Psychological Society.

Standard dose versus low dose non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants in Asian patients with atrial fibrillation: A meta-analysis of contemporary randomized controlled trials.

PubMed

Wang, Kang-Ling; Giugliano, Robert P; Goto, Shinya; Chiu, Chun-Chih; Lin, Chun-Yi; Lai, En-Yu; Chiang, Chern-En

2016-12-01

Although randomized controlled trials (RCTs) indicated that standard dose non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants (NOACs) were more compelling, low dose NOACs are commonly used in clinical practice in Asia. The purpose of this study was to assess the relative therapeutic benefit and risk of standard dose vs low dose NOACs in Asian patients enrolled in contemporary RCTs. We performed a prespecified meta-analysis of 3155 Asian patients with NOACs in the RE-LY (Randomized Evaluation of Long-Term Anticoagulation Therapy) and ENGAGE AF-TIMI 48 (Effective Anticoagulation with Factor Xa Next Generation in Atrial Fibrillation-Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction 48) trials. Efficacy and safety with standard dose vs low dose NOACs were compared by risk ratios (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) in a random-effects model. An evidence network incorporating additional Asian patients from ROCKET AF, J- ROCKET AF, and ARISTOTLE was constructed with the Bayesian method. Risks of stroke or systemic embolism and ischemic stroke were significantly reduced with standard dose vs low dose NOACs (RR 0.62, 95% CI 0.45-0.85; and RR 0.55, 95% CI 0.38-0.79, respectively). Rates of major, intracranial, and life-threatening bleeding with 2 dosing regimens were broadly similar (RR 1.31, 95% CI 0.74-2.33; RR 1.54, 95% CI 0.72-3.30; and RR 1.49, 95% CI 0.87-2.55, respectively). Absolute rates of all-cause mortality and the net clinical outcome with standard dose NOACs were lower but not statistically significant (absolute reduction 0.4% per year and 1.1% per year, respectively). Network meta-analyses demonstrated that standard dose NOACs had the most favorable risk-benefit profile among oral anticoagulants. In Asian patients, standard dose NOACs represent a more appealing therapeutic option than low dose NOACs, with a significant reduction in ischemic stroke without an excess of major bleeding. Copyright © 2016 Heart Rhythm Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Novel Associations between Common Breast Cancer Susceptibility Variants and Risk-Predicting Mammographic Density Measures

PubMed Central

Stone, Jennifer; Thompson, Deborah J.; dos-Santos-Silva, Isabel; Scott, Christopher; Tamimi, Rulla M.; Lindstrom, Sara; Kraft, Peter; Hazra, Aditi; Li, Jingmei; Eriksson, Louise; Czene, Kamila; Hall, Per; Jensen, Matt; Cunningham, Julie; Olson, Janet E.; Purrington, Kristen; Couch, Fergus J.; Brown, Judith; Leyland, Jean; Warren, Ruth M. L.; Luben, Robert N.; Khaw, Kay-Tee; Smith, Paula; Wareham, Nicholas J.; Jud, Sebastian M.; Heusinger, Katharina; Beckmann, Matthias W.; Douglas, Julie A.; Shah, Kaanan P.; Chan, Heang-Ping; Helvie, Mark A.; Le Marchand, Loic; Kolonel, Laurence N.; Woolcott, Christy; Maskarinec, Gertraud; Haiman, Christopher; Giles, Graham G.; Baglietto, Laura; Krishnan, Kavitha; Southey, Melissa C.; Apicella, Carmel; Andrulis, Irene L.; Knight, Julia A.; Ursin, Giske; Grenaker Alnaes, Grethe I.; Kristensen, Vessela N.; Borresen-Dale, Anne-Lise; Gram, Inger Torhild; Bolla, Manjeet K.; Wang, Qin; Michailidou, Kyriaki; Dennis, Joe; Simard, Jacques; Paroah, Paul; Dunning, Alison M.; Easton, Douglas F.; Fasching, Peter A.; Pankratz, V. Shane; Hopper, John; Vachon, Celine M.

2015-01-01

Mammographic density measures adjusted for age and body mass index (BMI) are heritable predictors of breast cancer risk but few mammographic density-associated genetic variants have been identified. Using data for 10,727 women from two international consortia, we estimated associations between 77 common breast cancer susceptibility variants and absolute dense area, percent dense area and absolute non-dense area adjusted for study, age and BMI using mixed linear modeling. We found strong support for established associations between rs10995190 (in the region of ZNF365), rs2046210 (ESR1) and rs3817198 (LSP1) and adjusted absolute and percent dense areas (all p <10−5). Of 41 recently discovered breast cancer susceptibility variants, associations were found between rs1432679 (EBF1), rs17817449 (MIR1972-2: FTO), rs12710696 (2p24.1), and rs3757318 (ESR1) and adjusted absolute and percent dense areas, respectively. There were associations between rs6001930 (MKL1) and both adjusted absolute dense and non-dense areas, and between rs17356907 (NTN4) and adjusted absolute non-dense area. Trends in all but two associations were consistent with those for breast cancer risk. Results suggested that 18% of breast cancer susceptibility variants were associated with at least one mammographic density measure. Genetic variants at multiple loci were associated with both breast cancer risk and the mammographic density measures. Further understanding of the underlying mechanisms at these loci could help identify etiological pathways implicated in how mammographic density predicts breast cancer risk. PMID:25862352

Gout and subsequent erectile dysfunction: a population-based cohort study from England.

PubMed

Abdul Sultan, Alyshah; Mallen, Christian; Hayward, Richard; Muller, Sara; Whittle, Rebecca; Hotston, Matthew; Roddy, Edward

2017-06-06

An association has been suggested between gout and erectile dysfunction (ED), however studies quantifying the risk of ED amongst gout patients are lacking. We aimed to precisely determine the population-level absolute and relative rate of ED reporting among men with gout over a decade in England. We utilised the UK-based Clinical Practice Research Datalink to identify 9653 men with incident gout age- and practice-matched to 38,218 controls. Absolute and relative rates of incident ED were calculated using Cox regression models. Absolute rates within specific time periods before and after gout diagnosis were compared to control using a Poisson regression model. Overall, the absolute rate of ED post-gout diagnosis was 193 (95% confidence interval (CI): 184-202) per 10,000 person-years. This corresponded to a 31% (hazard ratio (HR): 1.31 95%CI: 1.24-1.40) increased relative risk and 0.6% excess absolute risk compared to those without gout. We did not observe statistically significant differences in the risk of ED among those prescribed ULT within 1 and 3 years after gout diagnosis. Compared to those unexposed, the risk of ED was also high in the year before gout diagnosis (relative rate = 1.63 95%CI 1.27-2.08). Similar findings were also observed for severe ED warranting pharmacological intervention. We have shown a statistically significant increased risk of ED among men with gout. Our findings will have important implications in planning a multidisciplinary approach to managing patients with gout.

Infection risk and cost-effectiveness of commercial bags or glass bottles for total parenteral nutrition.

PubMed

Durand-Zaleski, I; Delaunay, L; Langeron, O; Belda, E; Astier, A; Brun-Buisson, C

1997-03-01

To determine whether the greater daily expense of administering total parenteral nutrition (TPN) via plastic bags changed once daily, compared to glass bottles changed thrice daily, could be offset by savings from a reduction in nosocomial infections. The costs and potential benefits of commercially available TPN bags and TPN in glass containers were compared. Costs were computed from the viewpoint of the hospital, first in a general model and then for two specific examples, Crohn's disease and intensive-care unit (ICU) patients. The extra cost of using bags was $20 per day. The total cost of nosocomial bacteremia was estimated at $6,000. The monetary benefits of using TPN bags were $6,000XT, where XT was the percentage of nosocomial infections averted. We also considered that reduction in intravenous (IV)-line manipulation could reduce bacteremia-related mortality and computed a cost-per-life-saved ratio. Modeling showed that TPN in bags could yield a net benefit when the absolute reduction in the daily risk of nosocomial bacteremia reached the threshold value of 0.3%. Such a reduction could not be attained in patients with Crohn's disease, and corresponded to a 50% to 60% reduction of infection rates in ICU patients. Varying the risk of mortality attributable to IV-line-related infection from 1% to 13% resulted in a cost effectiveness of using TPN bags ranging from $90,000 to $7,000 per life saved in ICU, assuming a two-thirds reduction in IV-line infections, and from $180,000 to $14,000 if the infection rate was reduced by one third. The baseline cost-minimization analysis concluded that the extra cost of TPN bags was not justified by the extra savings. The cost-effectiveness analysis, however, found that the cost per life saved fell within the accepted range of public health interventions, provided a large fraction of infections are averted using TPN bags.

Osteoporosis: the emperor has no clothes

PubMed Central

Järvinen, T L N; Michaëlsson, K; Aspenberg, P; Sievänen, H

2015-01-01

Current prevention strategies for low-trauma fractures amongst older persons depend on the notions that fractures are mainly caused by osteoporosis (pathophysiology), that patients at high risk can be identified (screening) and that the risk is amenable to bone-targeted pharmacotherapy (treatment). However, all these three notions can be disputed. Pathophysiology Most fracture patients have fallen, but actually do not have osteoporosis. A high likelihood of falling, in turn, is attributable to an ageing-related decline in physical functioning and general frailty. Screening Currently available fracture risk prediction strategies including bone densitometry and multifactorial prediction tools are unable to identify a large proportion of patients who will sustain a fracture, whereas many of those with a high fracture risk score will not sustain a fracture. Treatment The evidence for the viability of bone-targeted pharmacotherapy in preventing hip fracture and other clinical fragility fractures is mainly limited to women aged 65–80 years with osteoporosis, whereas the proof of hip fracture-preventing efficacy in women over 80 years of age and in men at all ages is meagre or absent. Further, the antihip fracture efficacy shown in clinical trials is absent in real-life studies. Many drugs for the treatment of osteoporosis have also been associated with increased risks of serious adverse events. There are also considerable uncertainties related to the efficacy of drug therapy in preventing clinical vertebral fractures, whereas the efficacy for preventing other fractures (relative risk reductions of 20–25%) remains moderate, particularly in terms of the low absolute risk reduction in fractures with this treatment. PMID:25809279

Preventing urinary tract infections in early childhood.

PubMed

Williams, Gabrielle J; Craig, Jonathan C; Carapetis, Jonathan R

2013-01-01

Urinary tract infection (UTI) is common in children, causes them considerable discomfort, as well as distress to parents and has a tendency to recur. Approximately 20% of those children who experience one infection will have a repeat episode. Since 1975, 11 trials of long-term antibiotics compared with placebo or no treatment in 1,550 children have been published. Results have been heterogeneous, but the largest trial demonstrated a small reduction (6% absolute risk reduction, risk ratio 0.65) in the risk of repeat symptomatic UTI over 12 months of treatment. This effect was consistent across sub groups of children based upon age, gender, vesicoureteric reflux status and number of prior infections. Trials involving re-implantation surgery (and antibiotics compared with antibiotics alone) for the sub-group of children with vesicoureteric reflux have not shown a reduction in repeat UTI, with the possible exception of a very small benefit for febrile UTI. Systematic reviews have shown that circumcision reduces the risk of repeat infection but 111 circumcisions would need to be performed to prevent one UTI in unpredisposed boys. Given the need for anaesthesia and the risk of surgical complication, net clinical benefit is probably restricted to those who are predisposed (such as those with recurrent infection). Many small trials in complementary therapies have been published and many suggest some benefit, however inclusion of children is limited. Only three trials involving 394 children for cranberry products, two trials with a total of 252 children for probiotics and one trial with 24 children for vitamin A are published. Estimates of efficacy vary widely and imprecision is evident. Multiple interventions to prevent UTI in children exist. Of those, long-term low dose antibiotics has the strongest evidence base, but the benefit is small. Circumcision in boys reduces the risk substantially, but should be restricted to those at risk. There is little evidence of benefit of re-implantation alone, and the benefit of this procedure over antibiotics alone is very small. Cranberry concentrate is probably effective.

12 CFR Appendix C to Part 325 - Risk-Based Capital for State Non-Member Banks: Market Risk

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... instrument is a covered debt instrument that is subject to a non-zero specific risk capital charge. (A) For... indices. (iii) A bank must multiply the absolute value of the current market value of each net long or... conversion. (iii)(A) A bank must multiply the absolute value of the current market value of each net long or...

Uses and misuses of statistics: the case of strontium ranelate and the number needed to treat.

PubMed

Pedrazzoni, M; Giusti, A; Pioli, G

2011-09-01

In the last 15 years, several pharmacological agents for the prevention of fractures have been developed and commercialized. Most of them showed to be effective in reducing fracture risk. The enhanced availability of drugs to prevent fractures has generated a fierce competition among pharmaceutical companies to conquer a share of the potential market, often with claims of superiority of a drug over another without direct comparisons. The definitive way to compare different treatments would require randomized head to head trials. These trials are expensive, need large samples and are unlikely to be ever performed. Therefore, it has become a common practice to compare pharmacological agents through observational studies on administrative databases or by the indirect comparison of the results of individual randomised-controlled trials (RCT) and their meta-analyses. These studies may produce evidence of clinical value, complementary to that given by RCT. However, without a proper and complete analysis, they may result in a biased picture of effectiveness and be completely misleading. In this article, we critically disclose how such competition may produce biased and misleading picture of evidence, by reviewing the significance of the number needed to treat, absolute risk reduction and relative risk reduction in relation to vertebral fractures prevention with available drugs.

Adjuvant radiotherapy for stage I endometrial cancer.

PubMed

Kong, A; Johnson, N; Cornes, P; Simera, I; Collingwood, M; Williams, C; Kitchener, H

2007-04-18

The role of adjuvant radiotherapy (both pelvic external beam radiotherapy and vaginal intracavity brachytherapy) in stage I endometrial cancer following total abdominal hysterectomy and bilateral salpingo-oophorectomy (TAH and BSO) remains unclear. To assess the efficacy of adjuvant radiotherapy following surgery for stage I endometrial cancer. The Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), MEDLINE, EMBASE, CancerLit, Physician Data Query (PDQ) of National Cancer Institute. Handsearching was also carried out where appropriate. Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) which compared adjuvant radiotherapy versus no radiotherapy following surgery for patients with stage I endometrial cancer were included. Quality of the studies was assessed and data collected using a predefined data collection form. The primary endpoint was overall survival. Secondary endpoints were locoregional recurrence, distant recurrence and endometrial cancer death. Data on quality of life (QOL) and morbidity were also collected. A meta-analysis on included trials was performed using the Cochrane Collaboration Review Manager Software 4.2. The meta-analysis was performed on four trials (1770 patients). The addition of pelvic external beam radiotherapy to surgery reduced locoregional recurrence, a relative risk (RR) of 0.28 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.17 to 0.44, p < 0.00001), which is a 72% reduction in the risk of pelvic relapse (95% CI 56% to 83%) and an absolute risk reduction of 6% (95% CI of 4 to 8%). The number needed to treat (NNT) to prevent one locoregional recurrence is 16.7 patients (95% CI 12.5 to 25). The reduction in the risk of locoregional recurrence did not translate into either a reduction in the risk of distant recurrence or death from all causes or endometrial cancer death. A subgroup analysis of women with multiple high risk factors (including stage 1c and grade 3) showed a trend toward the reduction in the risk of death from all causes and endometrial cancer death in patients who underwent adjuvant external beam radiotherapy. Patients with stage I endometrial carcinoma have different risks of local and distant recurrence depending on the presence of risk factors including stage 1c, grade 3, lymphovascular space invasion and age. Though external beam pelvic radiotherapy reduced locoregional recurrence by 72%, there is no evidence to suggest that it reduced the risk of death. In patients with multiple high risk factors, including stage 1c and grade 3, there was a trend towards a survival benefit and adjuvant external beam radiotherapy may be justified. For patients with only one risk factor, grade 3 or stage 1c, no definite conclusion can be made and data from ongoing studies ( ASTEC; Lukka) are awaited. External beam radiotherapy carries a risk of toxicity and should be avoided in stage 1 endometrial cancer patients with no high risk factors.

Benefit of Adjuvant Brachytherapy Versus External Beam Radiation for Early Breast Cancer: Impact of Patient Stratification on Breast Preservation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Smith, Grace L.; Jiang, Jing; Buchholz, Thomas A.

Purpose: Brachytherapy after lumpectomy is an increasingly popular breast cancer treatment, but data concerning its effectiveness are conflicting. Recently proposed “suitability” criteria guiding patient selection for brachytherapy have never been empirically validated. Methods: Using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results–Medicare linked database, we compared women aged 66 years or older with invasive breast cancer (n=28,718) or ductal carcinoma in situ (n=7229) diagnosed from 2002 to 2007, treated with lumpectomy alone, brachytherapy, or external beam radiation therapy (EBRT). The likelihood of breast preservation, measured by subsequent mastectomy risk, was compared by use of multivariate proportional hazards, further stratified by American Societymore » for Radiation Oncology (ASTRO) brachytherapy suitability groups. We compared 1-year postoperative complications using the χ{sup 2} test and 5-year local toxicities using the log-rank test. Results: For patients with invasive cancer, the 5-year subsequent mastectomy risk was 4.7% after lumpectomy alone (95% confidence interval [CI], 4.1%-5.4%), 2.8% after brachytherapy (95% CI, 1.8%-4.3%), and 1.3% after EBRT (95% CI, 1.1%-1.5%) (P<.001). Compared with lumpectomy alone, brachytherapy achieved a more modest reduction in adjusted risk (hazard ratio [HR], 0.61; 95% CI, 0.40-0.94) than achieved with EBRT (HR, 0.22; 95% CI, 0.18-0.28). Relative risks did not differ when stratified by ASTRO suitability group (P=.84 for interaction), although ASTRO “suitable” patients did show a low absolute subsequent mastectomy risk, with a minimal absolute difference in risk after brachytherapy (1.6%; 95% CI, 0.7%-3.5%) versus EBRT (0.8%; 95% CI, 0.6%-1.1%). For patients with ductal carcinoma in situ, EBRT maintained a reduced risk of subsequent mastectomy (HR, 0.40; 95% CI, 0.28-0.55; P<.001), whereas the small number of patients treated with brachytherapy (n=179) precluded definitive comparison with lumpectomy alone. In all patients, brachytherapy showed a higher postoperative infection risk (16.5% vs 9.9% after lumpectomy alone vs 11.4% after EBRT, P<.001); higher incidence of breast pain (22.9% vs 11.2% vs 16.7%, P<.001); and higher incidence of fat necrosis (15.3% vs 5.3% vs 7.7%, P<.001). Conclusions: In this study era, brachytherapy showed lesser breast preservation benefit compared with EBRT. Suitability criteria predicted differential absolute, but not relative, benefit in patients with invasive cancer.« less

Implications of the New ACC/AHA Cholesterol Guidelines for Primary Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Event Prevention in a Multi- Ethnic Cohort: MESA

PubMed Central

Yeboah, Joseph; Sillau, Stefan; Delaney, Joseph C; Blaha, Michael J.; Michos, Erin D; Young, Rebekah; Qureshi, Waqas T; McClelland, Robyn; Burke, Gregory L; Psaty, Bruce M; Herrington, David M

2015-01-01

Background The impact of replacing the NCEP/ ATPIII cholesterol guidelines with the new 2013 ACC/AHA guidelines for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease is unclear. Methods We used risk factor and 10-year clinical event rate data from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA), combined with estimates of efficacy of moderate and high intensity statin therapy from meta-analyses of statin primary prevention trials to estimate 1.) the change in number of subjects eligible for drug therapy, and 2.) the anticipated reduction in atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) events and increment in Type II diabetes (T2DM) associated with the change in cholesterol guidelines. Results Of the 6814 MESA participants, 5437 were not on statins at baseline and had complete data for analysis (mean age 61.4 ±10.3). Using the NCEP/ATP III guidelines 1334 (24.5%) would have been eligible for statin therapy compared with 3015 (55.5%) under the new ACC/AHA guidelines. Among the subset of newly eligible, 127/1742 (7.3%) had an ASCVD event during 10 years of follow-up. Assuming 10 years of moderate intensity statin therapy, the estimated absolute reduction in ASCVD events for the newly eligible group was 2.06% (NNT: 48.6) and the estimated absolute increase in T2DM was 0.90% (NNH: 110.7). Assuming 10 years of high intensity statin therapy, the corresponding estimates for reductions in ASCVD and increases in T2DM were: ASCVD; 2.70% (NNT: 37.5) and T2DM: 2.60% (NNH: 38.6). The estimated effects of moderate intensity statins on 10 year risk for ASCVD and T2DM in participants eligible for statins under the NCEP/ATP III were: 3.20% (NNT: 31.5) and 1.06% (NNH: 94.2) respectively. Conclusion Substituting the NCEP/ATP III cholesterol guidelines with the 2013 ACC/AHA cholesterol guidelines in MESA more than doubled the number of participants eligible for statin therapy. If the new ACC/AHA cholesterol guidelines are adopted and extend the primary prevention population eligible for treatment, the risk-benefit profile is much better for moderate intensity than high intensity statin treatment. PMID:25728729

Income-related inequalities in inadequate dentition over time in Australia, Brazil and USA adults.

PubMed

Peres, Marco A; Luzzi, Liana; Peres, Karen G; Sabbah, Wael; Antunes, Jose L; Do, Loc G

2015-06-01

To assess changes over time of the absolute and relative household income-related inequalities in inadequate dentition (ID) among Australians, Brazilians and USA adults. This study used nationwide oral health survey data from Australia (n = 1200 in 1999; n = 2729 in 2005), Brazil (n = 13 431 in 2003; n = 9779 in 2010) and USA (n = 2542 in 1999; n = 1596 in 2005). Absolute income inequalities were calculated using Absolute Concentration Index (ACI) and Slope Index of Inequality (SII), while relative inequalities were calculated using Relative Concentration Index (RCI) and Relative Index of Inequality (RII). Prevalence of ID in the studied period dropped from 8.7% to 3.1% in Australia; from 42.1% to 22.4% in Brazil; and remained stable in USA, nearly 8.0%. Absolute income inequalities were highest in Brazil, followed by the USA and Australia; relative inequalities were lower in Brazil than in Australia and the USA. ID was higher among Brazilian females (2010) and for the poorest group in all countries and periods. A remarkable reduction in absolute inequalities were found in Australia [Slope Index of Inequality (SII) and AIC 60%] and in Brazil (SII 25%; ACI 33%) while relative inequalities increased both in Australia (RCI and RII 40%) and in Brazil (RCI 24%; RII 38%). No changes in absolute and relative income inequalities were found in the USA. There were still persistent absolute and relative income inequalities in ID in all examined countries. There has been a reduction in absolute income inequalities in ID but an increase in relative income inequalities. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Development and Validation of a Model to Predict Absolute Vascular Risk Reduction by Moderate-Intensity Statin Therapy in Individual Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: The Anglo Scandinavian Cardiac Outcomes Trial, Antihypertensive and Lipid-Lowering Treatment to Prevent Heart Attack Trial, and Collaborative Atorvastatin Diabetes Study.

PubMed

Kaasenbrood, Lotte; Poulter, Neil R; Sever, Peter S; Colhoun, Helen M; Livingstone, Shona J; Boekholdt, S Matthijs; Pressel, Sara L; Davis, Barry R; van der Graaf, Yolanda; Visseren, Frank L J

2016-05-01

In this study, we aimed to translate the average relative effect of statin therapy from trial data to the individual patient with type 2 diabetes mellitus by developing and validating a model to predict individualized absolute risk reductions (ARR) of cardiovascular events. Data of 2725 patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus from the Lipid Lowering Arm of the Anglo Scandinavian Cardiac Outcomes Trial (ASCOT-LLA) study (atorvastatin 10 mg versus placebo) were used for model derivation. The model was based on 8 clinical predictors including treatment allocation (statin/placebo). Ten-year individualized ARR on major cardiovascular events by statin therapy were calculated for each patient by subtracting the estimated on-treatment risk from the estimated off-treatment risk. Predicted 10-year ARR by statin therapy was <2% for 13% of the patients. About 30% had an ARR of >4% (median ARR, 3.2%; interquartile range, 2.5%-4.3%; 95% confidence interval for 3.2% ARR, -1.4% to 6.8%). Addition of treatment interactions did not improve model performance. Therefore, the wide distribution in ARR was a consequence of the underlying distribution in cardiovascular risk enrolled in these trials. External validation of the model was performed in data from the Antihypertensive and Lipid-Lowering Treatment to Prevent Heart Attack Trial (ALLHAT-LLT; pravastatin 40 mg versus usual care) and Collaborative Atorvastatin Diabetes Study (CARDS; atorvastatin 10 mg versus placebo) of 3878 and 2838 patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus, respectively. Model calibration was adequate in both external data sets, discrimination was moderate (ALLHAT-LLT: c-statistics, 0.64 [95% confidence interval, 0.61-0.67] and CARDS: 0.68 [95% confidence interval, 0.64-0.72]). ARRs of major cardiovascular events by statin therapy can be accurately estimated for individual patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus using a model based on routinely available patient characteristics. There is a wide distribution in ARR that may complement informed decision making. URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00327418 (CARDS) and NCT00000542 (ALLHAT). © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

Effects of blood-pressure-lowering treatment on outcome incidence in hypertension: 10 - Should blood pressure management differ in hypertensive patients with and without diabetes mellitus? Overview and meta-analyses of randomized trials.

PubMed

Thomopoulos, Costas; Parati, Gianfranco; Zanchetti, Alberto

2017-05-01

Type 2 diabetes mellitus is associated with an increased risk of hypertension, and cardiovascular and renal disease, and it has been recommended that management of hypertension should be more aggressive in presence than in absence of diabetes mellitus, but the matter is controversial at present. Meta-analysing all available randomized controlled trials (RCTs) to compare the effects on cardiovascular and renal outcomes of blood pressure BP lowering to different systolic BP (SBP) and diastolic BP (DBP) levels or by different drug classes in patients with and without diabetes mellitus. The database consisted of 72 BP-lowering RCTs (260 210 patients) and 50 head-to-head drug comparison RCTs (247 006). Among these two sets, RCTs or RCT subgroups separately reporting data from patients with and without diabetes mellitus were identified, and stratified by in-treatment achieved SBP and DBP, by drug class compared with placebo, and drug class compared with all other classes. Risk ratios and 95% confidence intervals, and absolute risk reductions of six fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular outcomes, all-cause death, and end-stage renal disease (ESRD) were calculated (random-effects model) separately for diabetes mellitus and no diabetes mellitus, and compared by interaction analysis. We identified 41 RCTs providing data on 61 772 patients with diabetes mellitus and 40 RCTs providing data on 191 353 patients without diabetes mellitus. For achieved SBP at least 140 mmHg, relative and absolute reductions of most cardiovascular outcomes were significantly greater in diabetes mellitus than no diabetes mellitus, whereas for achieved SBP below 130 mmHg, the difference disappeared or reversed (greater outcome reduction in no diabetes mellitus). Significant ESRD reduction was found only in diabetes mellitus, but it was greatest when achieved SBP was at least 140 mmHg, and no further effect was found at SBP below 140 mmHg. All antihypertensive drug classes reduced cardiovascular risk vs. placebo in diabetes mellitus and no diabetes mellitus, but angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors were the only class more effective in diabetes mellitus than in no diabetes mellitus. When compared to other classes, renin-angiotensin system blockers were equally effective in cardiovascular prevention in no diabetes mellitus, but moderately, though significantly, more effective in diabetes mellitus. BP-lowering treatment significantly and importantly reduces cardiovascular risk both in diabetes mellitus and no diabetes mellitus, but evidence for reduced ESRD risk is available only in diabetes. Contrary to past recommendations, in diabetes mellitus there is little or no further benefit in lowering SBP below 130 mmHg, whereas continuing benefit is seen in no diabetes mellitus also at SBP below 130 mmHg. Although all BP-lowering drugs can beneficially be prescribed in hypertensive patients with diabetes mellitus, the current recommendation to initiate or include a renin-angiotensin system blocker is supported by the evidence here presented.

Diet during pregnancy and infancy and risk of allergic or autoimmune disease: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Garcia-Larsen, Vanessa; Ierodiakonou, Despo; Jarrold, Katharine; Cunha, Sergio; Chivinge, Jennifer; Robinson, Zoe; Geoghegan, Natalie; Ruparelia, Alisha; Devani, Pooja; Trivella, Marialena; Leonardi-Bee, Jo; Boyle, Robert J

2018-02-01

There is uncertainty about the influence of diet during pregnancy and infancy on a child's immune development. We assessed whether variations in maternal or infant diet can influence risk of allergic or autoimmune disease. Two authors selected studies, extracted data, and assessed risk of bias. Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) was used to assess certainty of findings. We searched Medical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System Online (MEDLINE), Excerpta Medica dataBASE (EMBASE), Web of Science, Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), and Literatura Latino Americana em Ciências da Saúde (LILACS) between January 1946 and July 2013 for observational studies and until December 2017 for intervention studies that evaluated the relationship between diet during pregnancy, lactation, or the first year of life and future risk of allergic or autoimmune disease. We identified 260 original studies (964,143 participants) of milk feeding, including 1 intervention trial of breastfeeding promotion, and 173 original studies (542,672 participants) of other maternal or infant dietary exposures, including 80 trials of maternal (n = 26), infant (n = 32), or combined (n = 22) interventions. Risk of bias was high in 125 (48%) milk feeding studies and 44 (25%) studies of other dietary exposures. Evidence from 19 intervention trials suggests that oral supplementation with nonpathogenic micro-organisms (probiotics) during late pregnancy and lactation may reduce risk of eczema (Risk Ratio [RR] 0.78; 95% CI 0.68-0.90; I2 = 61%; Absolute Risk Reduction 44 cases per 1,000; 95% CI 20-64), and 6 trials suggest that fish oil supplementation during pregnancy and lactation may reduce risk of allergic sensitisation to egg (RR 0.69, 95% CI 0.53-0.90; I2 = 15%; Absolute Risk Reduction 31 cases per 1,000; 95% CI 10-47). GRADE certainty of these findings was moderate. We found weaker support for the hypotheses that breastfeeding promotion reduces risk of eczema during infancy (1 intervention trial), that longer exclusive breastfeeding is associated with reduced type 1 diabetes mellitus (28 observational studies), and that probiotics reduce risk of allergic sensitisation to cow's milk (9 intervention trials), where GRADE certainty of findings was low. We did not find that other dietary exposures-including prebiotic supplements, maternal allergenic food avoidance, and vitamin, mineral, fruit, and vegetable intake-influence risk of allergic or autoimmune disease. For many dietary exposures, data were inconclusive or inconsistent, such that we were unable to exclude the possibility of important beneficial or harmful effects. In this comprehensive systematic review, we were not able to include more recent observational studies or verify data via direct contact with authors, and we did not evaluate measures of food diversity during infancy. Our findings support a relationship between maternal diet and risk of immune-mediated diseases in the child. Maternal probiotic and fish oil supplementation may reduce risk of eczema and allergic sensitisation to food, respectively.

12 CFR 324.210 - Standardized measurement method for specific risk.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... purchased credit protection is capped at the current fair value of the transaction plus the absolute value... hedge has a specific risk add-on of zero if: (i) The debt or securitization position is fully hedged by... debt or securitization positions, an FDIC-supervised institution must multiply the absolute value of...

Assessing the influence of risk factors on rates and dynamics of peripheral vein phlebitis: an observational cohort study.

PubMed

Mestre Roca, Gabriel; Berbel Bertolo, Cristina; Tortajada Lopez, Purificación; Gallemi Samaranch, Gema; Aguilar Ramirez, Mari Carmen; Caylà Buqueras, Joan; Rodríguez-Baño, Jesús; Martinez, José Antonio

2012-07-21

To assess the influence of risk factors on the rates and kinetics of peripheral vein phlebitis (PVP) development and its theoretical influence in absolute PVP reduction after catheter replacement. All peripheral short intravenous catheters inserted during one month were included (1201 catheters and 967 patients). PVP risk factors were assessed by a Cox proportional hazard model. Cumulative probability, conditional failure of PVP and theoretical estimation of the benefit from replacement at different intervals were performed. Female gender, catheter insertion at the emergency or medical-surgical wards, forearm site, amoxicillin-clavulamate or aminoglycosides were independent predictors of PVP with hazard ratios (95 confidence interval) of 1.46 (1.09-2.15), 1.94 (1.01-3.73), 2.51 (1.29-4.88), 1.93 (1.20-3.01), 2.15 (1.45-3.20) and 2.10 (1.01-4.63), respectively. Maximum phlebitis incidence was reached sooner in patients with ≥2 risk factors (days 3-4) than in those with <2 (days 4-5). Conditional failure increased from 0.08 phlebitis/one catheter-day for devices with ≤1 risk factors to 0.26 for those with ≥3. The greatest benefit of routine catheter exchange was obtained by replacement every 60h. However, this benefit differed according to the number of risk factors: 24.8% reduction with ≥3, 13.1% with 2, and 9.2% with ≤1. PVP dynamics is highly influenced by identifiable risk factors which may be used to refine the strategy of catheter management. Routine replacement every 72h seems to be strictly necessary only in high-risk catheters. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

Reduced Risk of Importing Ebola Virus Disease because of Travel Restrictions in 2014: A Retrospective Epidemiological Modeling Study.

PubMed

Otsuki, Shiori; Nishiura, Hiroshi

An epidemic of Ebola virus disease (EVD) from 2013-16 posed a serious risk of global spread during its early growth phase. A post-epidemic evaluation of the effectiveness of travel restrictions has yet to be conducted. The present study aimed to estimate the effectiveness of travel restrictions in reducing the risk of importation from mid-August to September, 2014, using a simple hazard-based statistical model. The hazard rate was modeled as an inverse function of the effective distance, an excellent predictor of disease spread, which was calculated from the airline transportation network. By analyzing datasets of the date of EVD case importation from the 15th of July to the 15th of September 2014, and assuming that the network structure changed from the 8th of August 2014 because of travel restrictions, parameters that characterized the hazard rate were estimated. The absolute risk reduction and relative risk reductions due to travel restrictions were estimated to be less than 1% and about 20%, respectively, for all models tested. Effectiveness estimates among African countries were greater than those for other countries outside Africa. The travel restrictions were not effective enough to expect the prevention of global spread of Ebola virus disease. It is more efficient to control the spread of disease locally during an early phase of an epidemic than to attempt to control the epidemic at international borders. Capacity building for local containment and coordinated and expedited international cooperation are essential to reduce the risk of global transmission.

Reduced Risk of Importing Ebola Virus Disease because of Travel Restrictions in 2014: A Retrospective Epidemiological Modeling Study

PubMed Central

Otsuki, Shiori

2016-01-01

Background An epidemic of Ebola virus disease (EVD) from 2013–16 posed a serious risk of global spread during its early growth phase. A post-epidemic evaluation of the effectiveness of travel restrictions has yet to be conducted. The present study aimed to estimate the effectiveness of travel restrictions in reducing the risk of importation from mid-August to September, 2014, using a simple hazard-based statistical model. Methodology/Principal Findings The hazard rate was modeled as an inverse function of the effective distance, an excellent predictor of disease spread, which was calculated from the airline transportation network. By analyzing datasets of the date of EVD case importation from the 15th of July to the 15th of September 2014, and assuming that the network structure changed from the 8th of August 2014 because of travel restrictions, parameters that characterized the hazard rate were estimated. The absolute risk reduction and relative risk reductions due to travel restrictions were estimated to be less than 1% and about 20%, respectively, for all models tested. Effectiveness estimates among African countries were greater than those for other countries outside Africa. Conclusions The travel restrictions were not effective enough to expect the prevention of global spread of Ebola virus disease. It is more efficient to control the spread of disease locally during an early phase of an epidemic than to attempt to control the epidemic at international borders. Capacity building for local containment and coordinated and expedited international cooperation are essential to reduce the risk of global transmission. PMID:27657544

Volume reduction of benign thyroid nodules 3 months after a single treatment with high-intensity focused ultrasound (HIFU).

PubMed

Korkusuz, Huedayi; Fehre, Niklas; Sennert, Michael; Happel, Christian; Grünwald, Frank

2015-01-01

High-intensity focused ultrasound (HIFU) is a promising, non-invasive technique in treating benign thyroid nodules (TNs). The aim of this study was to evaluate the efficacy of HIFU to induce clinically meaningful shrinkage in benign predominantly solid TNs and to identify variables that influence or predict the magnitude of TN volume reduction. For each of ten subjects, HIFU treatment was conducted on a single nodule. Nodular volume was measured sonographically at baseline and at 3 months post-procedure. Nodular function and early treatment assessment was done scintigraphically. Median nodular volume reduction was 0.7 ml absolute and 48.8% relative to pre-interventional size (p < 0.05). Absolute shrinkage was negatively correlated with the average treatment depth (τ = -0.61, p < 0.05). Absolute nodular volume was positively correlated with the scintigraphic nodular uptake reduction (τ = 0.66, p < 0.05). HIFU treatment of benign predominantly solid TNs appears to be safe and effective for inducing nodular shrinkage. Despite potential for improvement, a single treatment session with HIFU is already a viable alternative to more standard methods. The feasibility of multiple HIFU treatments requires further investigation. Due to the small sample size, the findings of this analysis need conformation by larger studies.

Standard and reduced doses of dabigatran, rivaroxaban and apixaban for stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation: a nationwide cohort study.

PubMed

Staerk, L; Gerds, T A; Lip, G Y H; Ozenne, B; Bonde, A N; Lamberts, M; Fosbøl, E L; Torp-Pedersen, C; Gislason, G H; Olesen, J B

2018-01-01

Comparative data of non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants (NOAC) are lacking in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). We compared effectiveness and safety of standard and reduced dose NOAC in AF patients. Using Danish nationwide registries, we included all oral anticoagulant-naïve AF patients who initiated NOAC treatment (2012-2016). Outcome-specific and mortality-specific multiple Cox regressions were combined to compute average treatment effects as 1-year standardized differences in stroke and bleeding risks (g-formula). Amongst 31 522 AF patients, the distribution of NOAC/dose was as follows: dabigatran standard dose (22.4%), dabigatran-reduced dose (14.0%), rivaroxaban standard dose (21.8%), rivaroxaban reduced dose (6.7%), apixaban standard dose (22.9%), and apixaban reduced dose (12.2%). The 1-year standardized absolute risks of stroke/thromboembolism were 1.73-1.98% and 2.51-2.78% with standard and reduced NOAC dose, respectively, without statistically significant differences between NOACs for given dose level. Comparing standard doses, the 1-year standardized absolute risk (95% CI) for major bleeding was for rivaroxaban 2.78% (2.42-3.17%); corresponding absolute risk differences (95% CI) were for dabigatran -0.93% (-1.45% to -0.38%) and apixaban, -0.54% (-0.99% to -0.05%). The results for major bleeding were similar for reduced NOAC dose. The 1-year standardized absolute risk (95% CI) for intracranial bleeding was for standard dose dabigatran 0.19% (0.22-0.50%); corresponding absolute risk differences (95% CI) were for rivaroxaban 0.23% (0.06-0.41%) and apixaban, 0.18% (0.01-0.34%). Standard and reduced dose NOACs, respectively, showed no significant risk difference for associated stroke/thromboembolism. Rivaroxaban was associated with higher bleeding risk compared with dabigatran and apixaban and dabigatran was associated with lower intracranial bleeding risk compared with rivaroxaban and apixaban. © 2017 The Association for the Publication of the Journal of Internal Medicine.

Anthropometric measures and absolute cardiovascular risk estimates in the Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle (AusDiab) Study.

PubMed

Chen, Lei; Peeters, Anna; Magliano, Dianna J; Shaw, Jonathan E; Welborn, Timothy A; Wolfe, Rory; Zimmet, Paul Z; Tonkin, Andrew M

2007-12-01

Framingham risk functions are widely used for prediction of future cardiovascular disease events. They do not, however, include anthropometric measures of overweight or obesity, now considered a major cardiovascular disease risk factor. We aimed to establish the most appropriate anthropometric index and its optimal cutoff point for use as an ancillary measure in clinical practice when identifying people with increased absolute cardiovascular risk estimates. Analysis of a population-based, cross-sectional survey was carried out. The 1991 Framingham prediction equations were used to compute 5 and 10-year risks of cardiovascular or coronary heart disease in 7191 participants from the Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle Study (1999-2000). Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was used to compare measures of body mass index (BMI), waist circumference, and waist-to-hip ratio in identifying participants estimated to be at 'high', or at 'intermediate or high' absolute risk. After adjustment for BMI and age, waist-to-hip ratio showed stronger correlation with absolute risk estimates than waist circumference. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve for waist-to-hip ratio (0.67-0.70 in men, 0.64-0.74 in women) were greater than those for waist circumference (0.60-0.65, 0.59-0.71) or BMI (0.52-0.59, 0.53-0.66). The optimal cutoff points of BMI, waist circumference and waist-to-hip ratio to predict people at 'high', or at 'intermediate or high' absolute risk estimates were 26 kg/m2, 95 cm and 0.90 in men, and 25-26 kg/m2, 80-85 cm and 0.80 in women, respectively. Measurement of waist-to-hip ratio is more useful than BMI or waist circumference in the identification of individuals estimated to be at increased risk for future primary cardiovascular events.

The protoelectric potential map (PPM): an absolute two-dimensional chemical potential scale for a global understanding of chemistry.

PubMed

Radtke, Valentin; Himmel, Daniel; Pütz, Katharina; Goll, Sascha K; Krossing, Ingo

2014-04-07

We introduce the protoelectric potential map (PPM) as a novel, two-dimensional plot of the absolute reduction potential (peabs scale) combined with the absolute protochemical potential (Brønsted acidity: pHabs scale). The validity of this thermodynamically derived PPM is solvent-independent due to the scale zero points, which were chosen as the ideal electron gas and the ideal proton gas at standard conditions. To tie a chemical environment to these reference states, the standard Gibbs energies for the transfer of the gaseous electrons/protons to the medium are needed as anchor points. Thereby, the thermodynamics of any redox, acid-base or combined system in any medium can be related to any other, resulting in a predictability of reactions even over different media or phase boundaries. Instruction is given on how to construct the PPM from the anchor points derived and tabulated with this work. Since efforts to establish "absolute" reduction potential scales and also "absolute" pH scales already exist, a short review in this field is given and brought into relation to the PPM. Some comments on the electrochemical validation and realization conclude this concept article. © 2014 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

CD4 cell responses to combination antiretroviral therapy in patients starting therapy at high CD4 cell counts.

PubMed

Wright, Stephen T; Carr, Andrew; Woolley, Ian; Giles, Michelle; Hoy, Jennifer; Cooper, David A; Law, Matthew G

2011-09-01

To examine CD4 cell responses to combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) in patients enrolled in the Australian HIV Observational Database who commenced cART at CD4 cell counts >350 cells per microliter. CD4 cell counts were modelled using random effects, repeated measurement models in 432 HIV-infected adults from Australian HIV Observational Database who commenced their first cART regimen and had a baseline CD4 count >350 cells per microliter. Using published AIDS and/or death incidence rates combined with the data summarized by time and predicted CD4 cell count, we calculated the expected reduction in risk of an event for different starting baseline CD4 strata. Mean CD4 counts increased above 500 cells per microliter in all baseline CD4 strata by 12 months (means of 596, 717, and 881 cells/μL in baseline CD4 strata 351-500, 501-650, and >650 cells/μL, respectively) and after 72 months since initiating cART, mean CD4 cell counts (by increasing baseline CD4 strata) were 689, 746, 742 cells per microliter. The expected reduction in risk of mortality for baseline CD4 counts >650 cells per microliter relative to 351-500 cells per microliter was approximately 8%, an absolute risk reduction 0.33 per 1000 treated patient-years. Patients starting cART at high CD4 cell counts (>650 cells/μL) tend to maintain this immunological level over 6 years of follow-up. Patients starting from 351 to 500 CD4 cells per microliter achieve levels of >650 cells per microliter after approximately 3 years of cART. Initiating cART with a baseline CD4 count 501-650 or >650 cells per microliter relative to 351-500 cells per microliter indicated a minimal reduction in risk of AIDS incidence and/or death.

Waist circumference values equivalent to body mass index points for predicting absolute cardiovascular disease risks among adults in an Aboriginal community: a prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Adegbija, Odewumi; Hoy, Wendy E; Wang, Zhiqiang

2015-11-13

There have been suggestions that currently recommended waist circumference (WC) cut-off points for Australians of European origin may not be applicable to Aboriginal people who have different body habitus profiles. We aimed to generate equivalent WC values that correspond to body mass index (BMI) points for identifying absolute cardiovascular disease (CVD) risks. Prospective cohort study. An Aboriginal community in Australia's Northern Territory. From 1992 to 1998, 920 adults without CVD, with age, WC and BMI measurements were followed-up for up to 20 years. Incident CVD, coronary artery disease (CAD) and heart failure (HF) events during the follow-up period ascertained from hospitalisation data. We generated WC values with 10-year absolute risks equivalent for the development of CVD as BMI values (20-34 kg/m(2)) using the Weibull accelerated time-failure model. There were 211 incident cases of CVD over 13,669 person-years of follow-up. At the average age of 35 years, WC values with absolute CVD, CAD and HF risks equivalent to BMI of 25 kg/m(2) were 91.5, 91.8 and 91.7 cm, respectively, for males, and corresponding WC values were 92.5, 92.7 and 93 cm for females. WC values with equal absolute CVD, CAD and HF risks to BMI of 30 kg/m(2) were 101.7, 103.1 and 102.6 cm, respectively, for males, and corresponding values were 99.2, 101.6 and 101.5 cm for females. Association between WC and CVD did not depend on gender (p=0.54). WC ranging from 91 to 93 cm was equivalent to BMI 25 kg/m(2) for overweight, and 99 to 103 cm was equivalent to BMI of 30 kg/m(2) for obesity in terms of predicting 10-year absolute CVD risk. Replicating the absolute risk method in other Aboriginal communities will further validate the WC values generated for future development of WC cut-off points for Aboriginal people. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Chondroitin for osteoarthritis

PubMed Central

Singh, Jasvinder A.; Noorbaloochi, Shahrzad; MacDonald, Roderick; Maxwell, Lara J.

2016-01-01

Background Osteoarthritis, a common joint disorder, is one of the leading causes of disability. Chondroitin has emerged as a new treatment. Previous meta-analyses have shown contradictory results on the efficacy of chondroitin. This, in addition to the publication of more trials, necessitates a systematic review. Objectives To evaluate the benefit and harm of oral chondroitin for treating osteoarthritis compared with placebo or a comparator oral medication including, but not limited to, nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs), analgesics, opioids, and glucosamine or other “herbal” medications. Search methods We searched seven databases up to November 2013, including the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), Ovid MEDLINE, CINAHL, EMBASE, Science Citation Index (Web of Science) and Current Controlled Trials. We searched the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and European Medicines Agency (EMEA) websites for adverse effects. Trial registers were not searched. Selection criteria All randomized or quasi-randomized clinical trials lasting longer than two weeks, studying adults with osteoarthritis in any joint, and comparing chondroitin with placebo, an active control such as NSAIDs, or other “herbal” supplements such as glucosamine. Data collection and analysis Two review authors independently performed all title assessments, data extractions, and risk of bias assessments. Main results Forty-three randomized controlled trials including 4,962 participants treated with chondroitin and 4,148 participants given placebo or another control were included. The majority of trials were in knee OA, with few in hip and hand OA. Trial duration varied from 1 month to 3 years. Participants treated with chondroitin achieved statistically significantly and clinically meaningful better pain scores (0–100) in studies less than 6 months than those given placebo with an absolute risk difference of 10% lower (95% confidence interval (CI), 15% to 6% lower; number needed to treat (NNT) = 5 (95% CI, 3 to 8; n = 8 trials) (level of evidence, low; risk of bias, high); but there was high heterogeneity between the trials (T2 = 0.07; I2 = 70%, which was not easily explained by differences in risk of bias or study sample size). In studies longer than 6 months, the absolute risk difference for pain was 9% lower (95% CI 18% lower to 0%); n = 6 trials; T2 = 0.18; I2 = 83% ), again with low level of evidence. For the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index Minimal Clinically Important Improvement (WOMAC MCII Pain subscale) outcome, a reduction in knee pain by 20% was achieved by 53/100 in the chondroitin group versus 47/100 in the placebo group, an absolute risk difference of 6% (95% CI 1% to 11%), (RR 1.12, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.24; T2 = 0.00; I2 = 0%) (n = 2 trials, 1253 participants; level of evidence, high; risk of bias, low). Differences in Lequesne’s index (composite of pain, function and disability) statistically significantly favoured chondroitin as compared with placebo in studies under six months, with an absolute risk difference of 8% lower (95% CI 12% to 5% lower; T2= 0.78; n = 7 trials) (level of evidence, moderate; risk of bias, unclear), also clinically meaningful. Loss of minimum joint space width in the chondroitin group was statistically significantly less than in the placebo group, with a relative risk difference of 4.7% less (95% CI 1.6% to 7.8% less; n = 2 trials) (level of evidence, high; risk of bias, low). Chondroitin was associated with statistically significantly lower odds of serious adverse events compared with placebo with Peto odds ratio of 0.40 (95% CI 0.19 to 0.82; n = 6 trials) (level of evidence, moderate). Chondroitin did not result in statistically significant numbers of adverse events or withdrawals due to adverse events compared with placebo or another drug. Adverse events were reported in a limited fashion, with some studies providing data and others not. Comparisons of chondroitin taken alone or in combination with glucosamine or another supplement showed a statistically significant reduction in pain (0–100) when compared with placebo or an active control, with an absolute risk difference of 10% lower (95% CI 14% to 5% lower); NNT = 4 (95% CI 3 to 6); T2 = 0.33; I2 = 91%; n = 17 trials) (level of evidence, low). For physical function, chondroitin in combination with glucosamine or another supplement showed no statistically significant difference from placebo or an active control, with an absolute risk difference of 1% lower (95% CI 6% lower to 3% higher with T2 = 0.04; n = 5 trials) (level of evidence, moderate). Differences in Lequesne’s index statistically significantly favoured chondroitin as compared with placebo, with an absolute risk difference of 8% lower (95% CI, 12% to 4% lower; T2 = 0.12; n = 10 trials) (level of evidence, moderate). Chondroitin in combination with glucosamine did not result in statistically significant differences in the numbers of adverse events, withdrawals due to adverse events, or in the numbers of serious adverse events compared with placebo or with an active control. The beneficial effects of chondroitin in pain and Lequesne’s index persisted when evidence was limited to studies with adequate blinding or studies that used appropriate intention to treat (ITT) analyses. These beneficial effects were uncertain when we limited data to studies with appropriate allocation concealment or a large study sample (> 200) or to studies without pharmaceutical funding. Authors’ conclusions A review of randomized trials of mostly low quality reveals that chondroitin (alone or in combination with glucosamine) was better than placebo in improving pain in participants with osteoarthritis in short-term studies. The benefit was small to moderate with an 8 point greater improvement in pain (range 0 to 100) and a 2 point greater improvement in Lequesne’s index (range 0 to 24), both likely clinically meaningful. These differences persisted in some sensitivity analyses and not others. Chondroitin had a lower risk of serious adverse events compared with control. More high-quality studies are needed to explore the role of chondroitin in the treatment of osteoarthritis. The combination of some efficacy and low risk associated with chondroitin may explain its popularity among patients as an over-the-counter supplement. PMID:25629804

Salivary IgA as a risk factor for upper respiratory infections in elite professional athletes.

PubMed

Neville, Vernon; Gleeson, Michael; Folland, Jonathan P

2008-07-01

The relationship between physiological and psychological stress and immune function is widely recognized; however, there is little evidence to confirm a direct link between depressed immune function and incidence of illness in athletes. To examine the relationship between salivary immunoglobulin A (s-IgA) and upper respiratory infections (URI) in a cohort of professional athletes over a prolonged period. Thirty-eight elite America's Cup yacht racing athletes were studied over 50 wk of training. Resting, unstimulated saliva samples were collected weekly (38 h after exercise, consistent time of day, fasted) together with clinically confirmed URI, training load, and perceived fatigue rating. s-IgA was highly variable within (coefficients of variation [CV] = 48%) and between subjects (CV = 71%). No significant correlation was found between absolute s-IgA concentration and the incidence of URI among athletes (r = 0.11). However, a significant (28%, P < 0.005) reduction in s-IgA occurred during the 3 wk before URI episodes and returned to baseline by 2 wk after a URI. When an athlete did not have, or was not recovering from URI, a s-IgA value lower than 40% of their mean healthy s-IgA concentration indicated a one in two chance of contracting an URI within 3 wk. On a group basis, relative s-IgA determined a substantial proportion of the variability in weekly URI incidence. The typical decline in an individual's relative s-IgA over the 3 wk before a URI appears to precede and contribute to URI risk, with the magnitude of the decrease related to the risk of URI, independent of the absolute s-IgA concentration. These findings have important implications for athletes and coaches in identifying periods of high URI risk.

Effect of topical application of dipyrone on dental sensitivity reduction after in-office dental bleaching: A randomized, triple-blind multicenter clinical trial.

PubMed

Rezende, Márcia; Chemin, Kaprice; Vaez, Savil Costa; Peixoto, Aline Carvalho; Rabelo, Jéssica de Freitas; Braga, Stella Sueli Lourenço; Faria-E-Silva, André Luis; Silva, Gisele Rodrigues da; Soares, Carlos José; Loguercio, Alessandro D; Reis, Alessandra

2018-05-01

Tooth sensitivity commonly occurs during and immediately after dental bleaching. The authors conducted a trial to compare tooth sensitivity after in-office bleaching after the use of either a topical dipyrone or placebo gel. A split-mouth, triple-blind, randomized, multicenter clinical trial was conducted among 120 healthy adults having teeth that were shade A2 or darker. The facial tooth surfaces of the right or left sides of the maxillary arch of each patient were randomly assigned to receive either topical dipyrone or placebo gel before 2 in-office bleaching sessions (35% hydrogen peroxide) separated by 2 weeks. Visual analog and numerical rating scales were used to record tooth sensitivity during and up to 48 hours after bleaching. Tooth color change from baseline to 1 month after bleaching was measured with shade guide and spectrophotometer measures. The primary outcome variable was absolute risk of tooth sensitivity. An intention-to-treat analysis was used to analyze data from all patients who were randomly assigned to receive the dipyrone and placebo gels. No statically significant difference was found in the absolute risk of tooth sensitivity between the dipyrone and placebo gels (83% and 90%, respectively, P = .09; relative risk, 0.92; 95% confidence interval, 0.8 to 1.0). A whitening effect was observed in both groups with no statistically significant difference (P > .05) between them. No adverse effects were observed. Topical use of dipyrone gel before tooth bleaching, at the levels used in this study, did not reduce the risk or intensity of bleaching-induced tooth sensitivity. Topical application of dipyrone gel does not reduce bleaching-induced tooth sensitivity. Copyright © 2018 American Dental Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Effect of Treatment Advances on the Mortality Results of Breast Cancer Screening Trials: A Microsimulation Model.

PubMed

Birnbaum, Jeanette; Gadi, Vijayakrishna K; Markowitz, Elan; Etzioni, Ruth

2016-02-16

Mammography trials, which are the primary sources of evidence for screening benefit, were conducted decades ago. Whether advances in systemic therapies have rendered previously observed benefits of screening less significant is unknown. To compare the outcomes of breast cancer screening trials had they been conducted using contemporary systemic treatments with outcomes of trials conducted with previously used treatments. Computer simulation model of 3 virtual screening trials with similar reductions in advanced-stage cancer cases but reflecting treatment patterns in 1975 (prechemotherapy era), 1999, or 2015 (treatment according to receptor status). Meta-analyses of screening and treatment trials; study of dissemination of primary systemic treatments; SEER (Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results) registry. U.S. women aged 50 to 74 years. 10 and 25 years. Population. Mammography, chemotherapy, tamoxifen, aromatase inhibitors, and trastuzumab. Breast cancer mortality rate ratio (MRR) and absolute risk reduction (ARR) obtained by the difference in cumulative breast cancer mortality between control and screening groups. At 10 years, screening in a 1975 trial yielded an MRR of 90% and an ARR of 5 deaths per 10,000 women. A 2015 screening trial yielded a 10-year MRR of 90% and an ARR of 3 deaths per 10,000 women. Greater reductions in advanced-stage disease yielded a greater screening effect, but MRRs remained similar across trials. However, ARRs were consistently lower under contemporary treatments. When contemporary treatments were available only for early-stage cases, the MRR was 88%. Disease models simplify reality and cannot capture all breast cancer subtypes. Advances in systemic therapies for breast cancer have not substantively reduced the relative benefits of screening but have likely reduced the absolute benefits because of their positive effect on breast cancer survival. University of Washington and National Cancer Institute.

[Do media reports and public brochures facilitate informed decision making about cervical cancer prevention?].

PubMed

Neumeyer-Gromen, A; Bodemer, N; Müller, S M; Gigerenzer, G

2011-11-01

With the introduction and recommendation of the new HPV (human papillomavirus) vaccination in 2007, cervical cancer prevention has evoked large public interest. Is the public able to make informed decisions on the basis of media reports and brochures? To answer this question, an analysis of media coverage of HPV vaccination (Gardasil®) and Pap (Papanicolaou) screening was conducted from 2007-2009, which investigated the minimum requirement of completeness (pros and cons), transparency (absolute numbers), and correctness (references concerning outcome, uncertainty, magnitude) of the information. As a bench mark, facts boxes with concise data on epidemiology, etiology, benefits, harms, and costs were compiled in advance. Although all vaccination reports and brochures covered the impact of prevention, only 41% provided concrete numbers on effectiveness (90/220) and 2% on absolute risk reductions for the cancer surrogate dysplasia (5/220), whereby none of the latter numbers was correct. The prevention potential was correctly presented once. Only 48% (105/220) mentioned pros and cons. With regard to screening, 20% (4/20) provided explicit data on test quality and one expressed these in absolute numbers, while 25% (5/20) reported the prevention potential; all given numbers were correct. Finally, 25% (5/20) mentioned the possibility of false positive results. Minimum requirements were fulfilled by 1/220 vaccination and 1/20 screening reports. At present, informed decision making based on media coverage is hardly possible.

Absolute Risk Aversion and the Returns to Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brunello, Giorgio

2002-01-01

Uses 1995 Italian household income and wealth survey to measure individual absolute risk aversion of 1,583 married Italian male household heads. Uses this measure as an instrument for attained education in a standard-log earnings equation. Finds that the IV estimate of the marginal return to schooling is much higher than the ordinary least squares…

12 CFR 217.210 - Standardized measurement method for specific risk

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... current fair value of the transaction plus the absolute value of the present value of all remaining... a securitization position and its credit derivative hedge has a specific risk add-on of zero if: (i... institution must multiply the absolute value of the current fair value of each net long or net short debt or...

12 CFR 3.210 - Standardized measurement method for specific risk

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... purchased credit protection is capped at the current fair value of the transaction plus the absolute value... specific risk add-on of zero if: (i) The debt or securitization position is fully hedged by a total return... absolute value of the current fair value of each net long or net short debt or securitization position in...

Timing of Allergenic Food Introduction to the Infant Diet and Risk of Allergic or Autoimmune Disease: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

PubMed

Ierodiakonou, Despo; Garcia-Larsen, Vanessa; Logan, Andrew; Groome, Annabel; Cunha, Sergio; Chivinge, Jennifer; Robinson, Zoe; Geoghegan, Natalie; Jarrold, Katharine; Reeves, Tim; Tagiyeva-Milne, Nara; Nurmatov, Ulugbek; Trivella, Marialena; Leonardi-Bee, Jo; Boyle, Robert J

2016-09-20

Timing of introduction of allergenic foods to the infant diet may influence the risk of allergic or autoimmune disease, but the evidence for this has not been comprehensively synthesized. To systematically review and meta-analyze evidence that timing of allergenic food introduction during infancy influences risk of allergic or autoimmune disease. MEDLINE, EMBASE, Web of Science, CENTRAL, and LILACS databases were searched between January 1946 and March 2016. Intervention trials and observational studies that evaluated timing of allergenic food introduction during the first year of life and reported allergic or autoimmune disease or allergic sensitization were included. Data were extracted in duplicate and synthesized for meta-analysis using generic inverse variance or Mantel-Haenszel methods with a random-effects model. GRADE was used to assess the certainty of evidence. Wheeze, eczema, allergic rhinitis, food allergy, allergic sensitization, type 1 diabetes mellitus, celiac disease, inflammatory bowel disease, autoimmune thyroid disease, and juvenile rheumatoid arthritis. Of 16 289 original titles screened, data were extracted from 204 titles reporting 146 studies. There was moderate-certainty evidence from 5 trials (1915 participants) that early egg introduction at 4 to 6 months was associated with reduced egg allergy (risk ratio [RR], 0.56; 95% CI, 0.36-0.87; I2 = 36%; P = .009). Absolute risk reduction for a population with 5.4% incidence of egg allergy was 24 cases (95% CI, 7-35 cases) per 1000 population. There was moderate-certainty evidence from 2 trials (1550 participants) that early peanut introduction at 4 to 11 months was associated with reduced peanut allergy (RR, 0.29; 95% CI, 0.11-0.74; I2 = 66%; P = .009). Absolute risk reduction for a population with 2.5% incidence of peanut allergy was 18 cases (95% CI, 6-22 cases) per 1000 population. Certainty of evidence was downgraded because of imprecision of effect estimates and indirectness of the populations and interventions studied. Timing of egg or peanut introduction was not associated with risk of allergy to other foods. There was low- to very low-certainty evidence that early fish introduction was associated with reduced allergic sensitization and rhinitis. There was high-certainty evidence that timing of gluten introduction was not associated with celiac disease risk, and timing of allergenic food introduction was not associated with other outcomes. In this systematic review, early egg or peanut introduction to the infant diet was associated with lower risk of developing egg or peanut allergy. These findings must be considered in the context of limitations in the primary studies.

Greater absolute risk for all subtypes of breast cancer in the US than Malaysia.

PubMed

Horne, Hisani N; Beena Devi, C R; Sung, Hyuna; Tang, Tieng Swee; Rosenberg, Philip S; Hewitt, Stephen M; Sherman, Mark E; Anderson, William F; Yang, Xiaohong R

2015-01-01

Hormone receptor (HR) negative breast cancers are relatively more common in low-risk than high-risk countries and/or populations. However, the absolute variations between these different populations are not well established given the limited number of cancer registries with incidence rate data by breast cancer subtype. We, therefore, used two unique population-based resources with molecular data to compare incidence rates for the 'intrinsic' breast cancer subtypes between a low-risk Asian population in Malaysia and high-risk non-Hispanic white population in the National Cancer Institute's surveillance, epidemiology, and end results 18 registries database (SEER 18). The intrinsic breast cancer subtypes were recapitulated with the joint expression of the HRs (estrogen receptor and progesterone receptor) and human epidermal growth factor receptor-2 (HER2). Invasive breast cancer incidence rates overall were fivefold greater in SEER 18 than in Malaysia. The majority of breast cancers were HR-positive in SEER 18 and HR-negative in Malaysia. Notwithstanding the greater relative distribution for HR-negative cancers in Malaysia, there was a greater absolute risk for all subtypes in SEER 18; incidence rates were nearly 7-fold higher for HR-positive and 2-fold higher for HR-negative cancers in SEER 18. Despite the well-established relative breast cancer differences between low-risk and high-risk countries and/or populations, there was a greater absolute risk for HR-positive and HR-negative subtypes in the US than Malaysia. Additional analytical studies are sorely needed to determine the factors responsible for the elevated risk of all subtypes of breast cancer in high-risk countries like the United States.

National lipid association recommendations for patient-centered management of dyslipidemia: part 1--full report.

PubMed

Jacobson, Terry A; Ito, Matthew K; Maki, Kevin C; Orringer, Carl E; Bays, Harold E; Jones, Peter H; McKenney, James M; Grundy, Scott M; Gill, Edward A; Wild, Robert A; Wilson, Don P; Brown, W Virgil

2015-01-01

The leadership of the National Lipid Association convened an Expert Panel to develop a consensus set of recommendations for patient-centered management of dyslipidemia in clinical medicine. An Executive Summary of those recommendations was previously published. This document provides support for the recommendations outlined in the Executive Summary. The major conclusions include (1) an elevated level of cholesterol carried by circulating apolipoprotein B-containing lipoproteins (non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol [LDL-C], termed atherogenic cholesterol) is a root cause of atherosclerosis, the key underlying process contributing to most clinical atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) events; (2) reducing elevated levels of atherogenic cholesterol will lower ASCVD risk in proportion to the extent that atherogenic cholesterol is reduced. This benefit is presumed to result from atherogenic cholesterol lowering through multiple modalities, including lifestyle and drug therapies; (3) the intensity of risk-reduction therapy should generally be adjusted to the patient's absolute risk for an ASCVD event; (4) atherosclerosis is a process that often begins early in life and progresses for decades before resulting a clinical ASCVD event. Therefore, both intermediate-term and long-term or lifetime risk should be considered when assessing the potential benefits and hazards of risk-reduction therapies; (5) for patients in whom lipid-lowering drug therapy is indicated, statin treatment is the primary modality for reducing ASCVD risk; (6) nonlipid ASCVD risk factors should also be managed appropriately, particularly high blood pressure, cigarette smoking, and diabetes mellitus; and (7) the measurement and monitoring of atherogenic cholesterol levels remain an important part of a comprehensive ASCVD prevention strategy. Copyright © 2015 National Lipid Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Vascular protection in peripheral artery disease: systematic review and modelling study.

PubMed

Hackam, D G; Sultan, N M; Criqui, M H

2009-07-01

To ascertain the effectiveness of medical therapy for reducing risk in peripheral artery disease (PAD) and to model the potential impact of combining multiple efficacious approaches. 17 electronic databases, reference lists of primary studies, clinical practice guidelines, review articles, trial registries and conference proceedings from cardiology, vascular surgery and atherosclerosis meetings were screened. Eligible studies were randomized trials or meta-analyses of randomized trials of medical therapy for PAD which reported major cardiovascular events (myocardial infarction, stroke and cardiovascular death). Baseline event rates for modelling analyses were derived from published natural history cohorts. Overall, three strategies had persuasive evidence for reducing risk in PAD: antiplatelet agents (pooled RRR 26%, 95% CI 10 to 42), statins (pooled RRR 26%, 95% CI 18 to 33) and angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (individual trial RRR 25%, 95% CI 8 to 39). The estimated cumulative relative risk reduction for all three strategies was 59% (CI 32 to 76). Given a 5-year major cardiovascular event rate of 25%, the corresponding absolute risk reduction and number needed to treat to prevent one event were 15% (CI 8 to 19) and 7 (CI 5 to 12), respectively. Population level analyses suggest that increased uptake of these modalities could prevent more than 200 000 events in patients with PAD each year. The use of multiple efficacious strategies has the potential to substantially reduce the cardiovascular burden of PAD. However, these data should be regarded as hypothetical, since they are based on mathematical modelling rather than factorial randomized trials.

Elevation in serum troponin I predicts the benefit of tirofiban.

PubMed

Januzzi, J L; Chae, C U; Sabatine, M S; Jang, I K

2001-05-01

Elevations in serum troponins among patients with acute coronary syndromes have been shown to identify those patients who are at high risk for poor outcome and who accrue larger relative benefits from aggressive antiplatelet and antithrombotic therapies. We studied a group of patients from the PRISM-PLUS trial to explore whether simply using serum troponin I, a serum marker of cardiac injury, could predict benefit of GP IIb/IIIa receptor antagonism with tirofiban. For this study, the subjects consisted of 55 patients receiving the combination therapy of tirofiban/heparin, and 55 receiving heparin alone. The baseline characteristics were similar between the two treatment groups. Serial blood samples were obtained over the first 24-hour period following randomization to study drug, and were analyzed for troponin I (TnI) levels. Among those patients with elevated serum TnI (>0.5 ng/ml), the 30-day event rate for death or myocardial infarction (MI) was reduced from 20.6% among the heparin only group to 3.6% for those treated with the combination of tirofiban/heparin, an absolute risk reduction of 17% and relative risk reduction of 83% (p=0.06). Among the TnI negative patients, the rates of death/MI at 30 days were 9.5% and 11.1% among the combination and heparin treated groups respectively (p=NS). Irrespective of high-risk clinical factors, including ST segment depression, these data support the hypothesis that serum troponins identify those who benefit from aggressive antiplatelet therapy with tirofiban.

Aiming for more relevant HIV risk reduction: a black feminist perspective for enhancing HIV intervention for low-income African American women.

PubMed

Gentry, Quinn M; Elifson, Kirk; Sterk, Claire

2005-06-01

The purpose of this study was to examine how various living conditions impact the context within which low-income African American women engage in a diverse range of high-risk behavior that increases their risk for HIV infection. The study, based on 2 years of ethnographic fieldwork, analyzed the living conditions of 45 African American women at risk for HIV infection in a high-risk neighborhood in Atlanta, Georgia. A black feminist perspective guided the study's analytical framework as a way to extend knowledge about the social conditions, the social interactions, and the meaning of high-risk behavior in the lives of African American women. Using black feminist theory and the constant comparison method, two groups emerged: "street" women and "house" women. Street women were defined as the absolute homeless, the rooming housed, and the hustling homeless. House women were defined as the family housed, the heads of household, and the steady-partner housed. Results reveal that various types of living arrangements place women at risk in different ways and suggest that low-income African American women at high risk for HIV infection-a group often considered homogeneous-have unique "within group" needs that must be addressed in HIV prevention intervention research.

12 CFR Appendix E to Part 225 - Capital Adequacy Guidelines for Bank Holding Companies: Market Risk Measure

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... covered debt instrument that is subject to a non-zero specific risk capital charge. (A) For covered debt... indices. (iii) An organization must multiply the absolute value of the current market value of each net... multiply the absolute value of the current market value of each net long or short covered equity position...

Perioperative supplemental oxygen therapy and surgical site infection: a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

PubMed

Qadan, Motaz; Akça, Ozan; Mahid, Suhal S; Hornung, Carlton A; Polk, Hiram C

2009-04-01

To conduct a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials in which high inspired oxygen concentrations were compared with standard concentrations to assess the effect on the development of surgical site infections (SSIs). A systematic literature search was conducted using the MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Cochrane databases and included a manual search of references of original articles, poster presentations, and abstracts from major meetings ("gray" literature). Twenty-one of 2167 articles met the inclusion criteria. Of these, 5 randomized controlled trials (3001 patients) assessed the effect of perioperative supplemental oxygen use on the SSI rate. Studies used a treatment-inspired oxygen concentration of 80%. Maximum follow-up was 30 days. Data were abstracted by 3 independent reviewers using a standardized data collection form. Relative risks were reported using a fixed-effects model. Results were subjected to publication bias testing and sensitivity analyses. Infection rates were 12.0% in the control group and 9.0% in the hyperoxic group, with relative risk reduction of 25.3% (95% confidence interval [CI], 8.1%-40.1%) and absolute risk reduction of 3.0% (1.1%-5.3%). The overall risk ratio was 0.742 (95% CI, 0.599-0.919; P = .006). The benefit from increasing oxygen concentration was greater in colorectal-specific procedures, with a risk ratio of 0.556 (95% CI, 0.383-0.808; P = .002). Perioperative supplemental oxygen therapy exerts a significant beneficial effect in the prevention of SSIs. We recommend its use along with maintenance of normothermia, meticulous glycemic control, and preservation of intravascular volume perioperatively in the prevention of SSIs.

Risk of intracerebral haemorrhage with alteplase after acute ischaemic stroke: a secondary analysis of an individual patient data meta-analysis.

PubMed

Whiteley, William N; Emberson, Jonathan; Lees, Kennedy R; Blackwell, Lisa; Albers, Gregory; Bluhmki, Erich; Brott, Thomas; Cohen, Geoff; Davis, Stephen; Donnan, Geoffrey; Grotta, James; Howard, George; Kaste, Markku; Koga, Masatoshi; von Kummer, Rüdiger; Lansberg, Maarten G; Lindley, Richard I; Lyden, Patrick; Olivot, Jean Marc; Parsons, Mark; Toni, Danilo; Toyoda, Kazunori; Wahlgren, Nils; Wardlaw, Joanna; Del Zoppo, Gregory J; Sandercock, Peter; Hacke, Werner; Baigent, Colin

2016-08-01

Randomised trials have shown that alteplase improves the odds of a good outcome when delivered within 4·5 h of acute ischaemic stroke. However, alteplase also increases the risk of intracerebral haemorrhage; we aimed to determine the proportional and absolute effects of alteplase on the risks of intracerebral haemorrhage, mortality, and functional impairment in different types of patients. We used individual patient data from the Stroke Thrombolysis Trialists' (STT) meta-analysis of randomised trials of alteplase versus placebo (or untreated control) in patients with acute ischaemic stroke. We prespecified assessment of three classifications of intracerebral haemorrhage: type 2 parenchymal haemorrhage within 7 days; Safe Implementation of Thrombolysis in Stroke Monitoring Study's (SITS-MOST) haemorrhage within 24-36 h (type 2 parenchymal haemorrhage with a deterioration of at least 4 points on National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale [NIHSS]); and fatal intracerebral haemorrhage within 7 days. We used logistic regression, stratified by trial, to model the log odds of intracerebral haemorrhage on allocation to alteplase, treatment delay, age, and stroke severity. We did exploratory analyses to assess mortality after intracerebral haemorrhage and examine the absolute risks of intracerebral haemorrhage in the context of functional outcome at 90-180 days. Data were available from 6756 participants in the nine trials of intravenous alteplase versus control. Alteplase increased the odds of type 2 parenchymal haemorrhage (occurring in 231 [6·8%] of 3391 patients allocated alteplase vs 44 [1·3%] of 3365 patients allocated control; odds ratio [OR] 5·55 [95% CI 4·01-7·70]; absolute excess 5·5% [4·6-6·4]); of SITS-MOST haemorrhage (124 [3·7%] of 3391 vs 19 [0·6%] of 3365; OR 6·67 [4·11-10·84]; absolute excess 3·1% [2·4-3·8]); and of fatal intracerebral haemorrhage (91 [2·7%] of 3391 vs 13 [0·4%] of 3365; OR 7·14 [3·98-12·79]; absolute excess 2·3% [1·7-2·9]). However defined, the proportional increase in intracerebral haemorrhage was similar irrespective of treatment delay, age, or baseline stroke severity, but the absolute excess risk of intracerebral haemorrhage increased with increasing stroke severity: for SITS-MOST intracerebral haemorrhage the absolute excess risk ranged from 1·5% (0·8-2·6%) for strokes with NIHSS 0-4 to 3·7% (2·1-6·3%) for NIHSS 22 or more (p=0·0101). For patients treated within 4·5 h, the absolute increase in the proportion (6·8% [4·0% to 9·5%]) achieving a modified Rankin Scale of 0 or 1 (excellent outcome) exceeded the absolute increase in risk of fatal intracerebral haemorrhage (2·2% [1·5% to 3·0%]) and the increased risk of any death within 90 days (0·9% [-1·4% to 3·2%]). Among patients given alteplase, the net outcome is predicted both by time to treatment (with faster time increasing the proportion achieving an excellent outcome) and stroke severity (with a more severe stroke increasing the absolute risk of intracerebral haemorrhage). Although, within 4·5 h of stroke, the probability of achieving an excellent outcome with alteplase treatment exceeds the risk of death, early treatment is especially important for patients with severe stroke. UK Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, University of Glasgow, University of Edinburgh. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Reductions in finger blood flow induced by 125-Hz vibration: effect of location of contact with vibration.

PubMed

Ye, Ying; Griffin, Michael J

2016-04-01

This study investigated whether the reductions in finger blood flow induced by 125-Hz vibration applied to different locations on the hand depend on thresholds for perceiving vibration at these locations. Subjects attended three sessions during which vibration was applied to the right index finger, the right thenar eminence, or the left thenar eminence. Absolute thresholds for perceiving vibration at these locations were determined. Finger blood flow in the middle finger of both hands was then measured at 30-s intervals during five successive 5-min periods: (i) pre-exposure, (ii) pre-exposure with 2-N force, (iii) 2-N force with vibration, (iv) post-exposure with 2-N force, (v) recovery. During period (iii), vibration was applied at 15 dB above the absolute threshold for perceiving vibration at the right thenar eminence. Vibration at all three locations reduced finger blood flow on the exposed and unexposed hand, with greater reductions when vibrating the finger. Vibration-induced vasoconstriction was greatest for individuals with low thresholds and locations of excitation with low thresholds. Differences in vasoconstriction between subjects and between locations are consistent with the Pacinian channel mediating both absolute thresholds and vibration-induced vasoconstriction.

Adjuvant chemotherapy for endometrial cancer after hysterectomy

PubMed Central

Johnson, Nick; Bryant, Andrew; Miles, Tracie; Hogberg, Thomas; Cornes, Paul

2014-01-01

Background Endometrial adenocarcinoma (womb cancer) is a malignant growth of the lining (endometrium) of the womb (uterus). It is distinct from sarcomas (tumours of the uterine muscle). Survival depends the risk of microscopic metastases after surgery. Adjuvant (postoperative) chemotherapy improves survival from some other adenocarcinomas, and there is evidence that endometrial cancer is sensitive to cytotoxic therapy. This systematic review examines the effect of chemotherapy on survival after hysterectomy for endometrial cancer. Objectives To assess efficacy of adjuvant (postoperative) chemotherapy for endometrial cancer. Search methods We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL, The Cochrane Library 2010, Issue 3), MEDLINE and EMBASE up to August 2010, registers of clinical trials, abstracts of scientific meetings, reference lists of included studies and contacted experts in the field. Selection criteria Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) comparing adjuvant chemotherapy with any other adjuvant treatment or no other treatment. Data collection and analysis We used a random-effects meta-analysis to assess hazard ratios (HR) for overall and progression-free survival and risk ratios (RR) to compare death rates and site of initial relapse. Main results Five RCTs compared no additional treatment with additional chemotherapy after hysterectomy and radiotherapy. Four trials compared platinum based combination chemotherapy directly with radiotherapy. Indiscriminate pooling of survival data from 2197 women shows a significant overall survival advantage from adjuvant chemotherapy (RR (95% CI) = 0.88 (0.79 to 0.99)). Sensitivity analysis focused on trials of modern platinum based chemotherapy regimens and found the relative risk of death to be 0.85 ((0.76 to 0.96); number needed to treat for an additional beneficial outcome (NNT) = 25; absolute risk reduction = 4% (1% to 8%)). The HR for overall survival is 0.74 (0.64 to 0.89), significantly favouring the addition of postoperative platinum based chemotherapy. The HR for progression-free survival is 0.75 (0.64 to 0.89). This means that chemotherapy reduces the risk of being dead at any censorship by a quarter. Chemotherapy reduces the risk of developing the first recurrence outside the pelvis (RR = 0.79 (0.68 to 0.92), 5% absolute risk reduction; NNT = 20). The analysis of pelvic recurrence rates is underpowered but the trend suggests that chemotherapy may be less effective than radiotherapy in a direct comparison (RR = 1.28 (0.97 to 1.68)) but it may have added value when used with radiotherapy (RR = 0.48 (0.20 to 1.18)). Authors’ conclusions Postoperative platinum based chemotherapy is associated with a small benefit in progression-free survival and overall survival irrespective of radiotherapy treatment. It reduces the risk of developing a metastasis, could be an alternative to radiotherapy and has added value when used with radiotherapy. PMID:21975736

Changes in Doppler blood flow velocity in middle cerebral artery in response to airborne sound in low- and high-risk human fetuses.

PubMed

Dobrijević, Lj J; Ljubić, Aleksandar; Sovilj, Mirjana; Ribarić-Jankes, Ksenija; Miković, Zeljko; Cerović, Nikola

2009-10-01

To examine fetal auditory perception in low- and high-risk pregnancies in period from 27 to 31 weeks gestational age with the aim to establish diagnostic parameters in prenatal detection of the degree of hearing development in a fetus. Method of prenatal hearing screening was applied on 80 women divided in two groups: Control group (C=22), consisted of pregnant women with low-risk pregnancies, and Experimental group (E=58), consisted of pregnant women with high-risk pregnancies (pregnancies with diagnosis of: preterm delivery, hypertension and/or intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR), diabetes). PHS was applied in period from 27 to 31 weeks gestational age. Brain circulation changes in fetal middle cerebral artery (MCA) caused by defined sound stimulus, as the indicator of fetal auditory reactions, were registered on Doppler ultrasound apparatus. After visualization of MCA, a sound stimulus was delivered. The stimulus consisted of one defined sound which is a digitally produced sound with the intensity of 90 dB, frequency range of 1500-4500 Hz, and duration of 0.2s (click) and it was presented only once. Measurements in observed artery were taken before (baseline) and after defined sound stimulation. Results showed that the absolute and relative difference in Pulsatility index (baseline and after sound stimulation) were greater for the high-risk group compared to the low-risk group (absolute difference: mean=0.36 vs mean=0.36) (relative difference: mean = ∼ 18% vs mean = ∼ 12%). When the low-risk group and the three high-risk group mean pairs were compared using multiple t-test, the diabetic group differed from the low-risk and two other high-risk groups; the low-risk and the two other high-risk groups did not differ from each other. Fetuses from pregnancies with diagnosis of diabetes demonstrated the most expressive reactibility and significantly higher absolute and relative changes of Pi values (absolute difference: mean=0.54, relative difference: mean=25.49%). The values of Pulsatility index (Pi) registered by PHS in low- and high-risk pregnancies may be used as differential and diagnostic parameters in fetal auditory perception examination. Fetuses from pregnancies with diagnosis of diabetes demonstrated significantly higher absolute and relative changes of Pi values compared to other groups of examined fetuses.

Effects of intra-alveolar placement of 0.2% chlorhexidine bioadhesive gel on dry socket incidence and postsurgical pain: a double-blind split-mouth randomized controlled clinical trial.

PubMed

Haraji, Afshin; Rakhshan, Vahid; Khamverdi, Naiemeh; Alishahi, Hadiseh Khanzadeh

2013-01-01

To assess the effects of intra-alveolar application of chlorhexidine gel on the incidence of alveolar osteitis (dry socket) and the severity of postsurgical pain. A total of 160 impacted mandibular third molars were extracted in 80 patients enrolled in this trial. In each subject, a socket was randomly selected and packed to the crest of the alveolar ridge with a gelatin sponge dressing saturated in 0.2% chlorhexidine gel. The contralateral socket was packed with a dry dressing as the placebo. None of the included patients took antibiotics or analgesics. The occurrence of dry socket and patients' pain levels were assessed at the first and third postoperative days. The data were analyzed using Spearman correlation coefficient, McNemar, Wilcoxon, and chi-square tests. Chlorhexidine gel significantly reduced dry socket incidence from 32.6% to 11.3% (P ≤ .001 [McNemar and chi-square], absolute risk reduction = 21.2%, relative risk reduction = 65.4%, odds ratio = 0.263, relative risk = 0.345). It also significantly relieved postoperative pain on both sides in all the patients (P ≤ .001 [Wilcoxon]) and also in the 54 subjects who did not develop dry socket (P ≤ .001 [Wilcoxon]). Besides decreasing the incidence of dry socket, chlorhexidine gel can reduce postsurgical pain in patients with and without dry socket.

Enoxaparin vs. unfractionated heparin with fibrinolysis for ST-elevation myocardial infarction in elderly and younger patients: results from ExTRACT-TIMI 25.

PubMed

White, Harvey D; Braunwald, Eugene; Murphy, Sabina A; Jacob, Ashok J; Gotcheva, Nina; Polonetsky, Leonid; Antman, Elliott M

2007-05-01

To determine the effects of age on outcomes in patients with STEMI treated with a strategy of enoxaparin (ENOX) vs. unfractionated heparin (UFH). In the ExTRACT-TIMI 25 trial, 20,479 patients with STEMI were randomized in a double-blind fashion to UFH or ENOX. A novel reduced dose of ENOX was administered to patients >or=75 years, and a reduced dose in those with an estimated creatinine clearance of < 30 mL/min. Anti-Xa levels were measured in a subset of patients (n = 73). The exposure to anti-Xa over time was lower in the elderly (AUC(0-12 h) P < 0.0001; AUC(steady-state) P = 0.0046). The relative risk reduction (RR) with ENOX on the primary endpoint, i.e. death or non-fatal recurrent myocardial infarction, was greater in patients < 75 years (20%) than > 75 years (6%), but the absolute benefits were similar. When compared with UFH, ENOX was associated with an RR of 1.67 for major bleeding, but the magnitude of the excess risk tended to be lower (RR = 1.15) in patients >or= 75 years assigned to ENOX. A dose reduction of ENOX in the elderly appears to be helpful in ameliorating bleeding risk. A strategy of ENOX was superior to UFH in both young and elderly patients with STEMI treated with fibrinolysis.

The safety of sacubitril-valsartan for the treatment of chronic heart failure.

PubMed

Tyler, Jeffrey M; Teerlink, John R

2017-02-01

Sacubitril-valsartan is a combination drug that contains the neprilysin inhibitor sacubitril and angiotensin II receptor blocker valsartan. In 2015, the US Food and Drug Administration approved sacubitril-valsartan for treatment of heart failure patients with reduced ejection fraction and New York Heart Association class II-IV symptoms following a large, Phase III clinical trial (PARADIGM-HF) that demonstrated a 20% reduction in the combined primary end-point of death from cardiovascular cause or hospitalization for heart failure compared to enalapril. Areas covered: This review discusses the clinical efficacy and safety of angiotensin receptor neprilysin inhibitor sacubitril-valsartan in heart failure with reduced ejection fraction. Expert opinion: Based on the PARADIGM-HF trial, sacubitril-valsartan offers compelling reductions in meaningful clinical endpoints, independent of age or severity of disease. The rate of adverse events was comparable between the enalapril and sacubitril-valsartan groups, although the absolute rates are likely underestimated due to the entry criteria and run-in period. Future trials and post-market surveillance are critical to better understand the risk of angioedema in high risk populations, particularly African-Americans, as well as long-term theoretical risks including the potential for increased cerebral amyloid plaque deposition with possible development of neurocognitive disease. Current trials are underway to evaluate potential benefit in patients with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction.

Coronary artery disease: the role of lipids, hypertension and smoking.

PubMed

Keil, U

2000-01-01

Pioneering epidemiological projects such as the Seven Countries study, and the Framingham Heart study established the classical risk factor concept for coronary heart disease (CAD). These landmark studies showed that a raised serum total cholesterol, high blood pressure (systolic and diastolic) and smoking increase the risk of developing CHD in men and women in a graded fashion. Women develop CHD about 10 years later than men and women's risk is smaller. In the years and decades following these early studies many more prospective cohort studies primarily in the US and Europe have confirmed the early findings. In Germany two occupational and one population based cohort studies have contributed further information on this topic. In addition interactions between the three classical risk factors have been quantified, demonstrating for example that smoking carries a much higher risk for CHD in persons with high cholesterol values. Most cohort studies have confirmed that the relative risks for the classical risk factors are very similar. However, the respective absolute risks can differ tremendously, indicating that many more factors such as socio-economic conditions, nutrition, physical activity and others are of importance for the development of CHD. The scientific community, however, did not accept the consistent findings from the many observational studies as proof of causality. They required evidence that the risk for CHD could be reduced when the respective risk factor(s) was (were) diminished or eliminated. The late 1960s early 1970s thus saw the beginning of the era of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) following the advice of Archibald Cochrane who once wrote "we have to find that point on the distribution curve where therapy does more good than harm". We now know from meta-analyses of RCTs that a 1% reduction in serum cholesterol produces a 2-3% decline in risk for CHD and we can achieve reductions in total cholesterol of 20% or more. Regarding treatment of high blood pressure, meta-analyses of RCTs have shown that a reduction of 1 mmHg in diastolic blood pressure (DBP) produces a 2-3% decline in risk of CHD, and we can achieve reductions in DBP on average of 5-6 mmHg. With regard to smoking cessation, observational studies have shown that within 1-5 years of cessation those who stop smoking have a 50-70% lower risk than current smokers. Thus the findings from observational studies, RCTs and studies on mechanisms have clearly established the importance of the three classical risk factors for CHD. The successful treatment of these risk factors will not only lower the burden of CHD in the population but promises to be the most effective way of improving the health of the whole population.

Pre-Feedback Risk Expectancies and Reception of Low-Risk Health Feedback: Absolute and Comparative Lack of Reassurance.

PubMed

Gamp, Martina; Renner, Britta

2016-11-01

Personalised health-risk assessment is one of the most common components of health promotion programs. Previous research on responses to health risk feedback has commonly focused on the reception of bad news (high-risk feedback). The reception of low-risk feedback has been comparably neglected since it is assumed that good news is reassuring and readily received. However, field studies suggest mixed responses to low-risk health feedback. Accordingly, we examine whether pre-feedback risk expectancies can mitigate the reassuring effects of good news. In two studies (N = 187, N = 565), after assessing pre-feedback risk expectancies, participants received low-risk personalised feedback about their own risk of developing (the fictitious) Tucson Chronic Fatigue Syndrome (TCFS). Study 2 also included peer TCFS risk status feedback. Afterwards, self- and peer-related risk perception for TCFS was assessed. In both studies, participants who expected to be at high risk but received good news (unexpected low-risk feedback) showed absolute lack of reassurance. Specifically, they felt at significantly greater TCFS risk than participants who received expected good news. Moreover, the unexpected low-risk group even believed that their risk was as high as (Study 1) or higher (Study 2) than that of their peers (comparative lack of reassurance). Results support the notion that high pre-feedback risk expectancies can mitigate absolute and comparative reassuring effects of good news. © 2016 The International Association of Applied Psychology.

Directly relating gas-phase cluster measurements to solution-phase hydrolysis, the absolute standard hydrogen electrode potential, and the absolute proton solvation energy.

PubMed

Donald, William A; Leib, Ryan D; O'Brien, Jeremy T; Williams, Evan R

2009-06-08

Solution-phase, half-cell potentials are measured relative to other half-cell potentials, resulting in a thermochemical ladder that is anchored to the standard hydrogen electrode (SHE), which is assigned an arbitrary value of 0 V. A new method for measuring the absolute SHE potential is demonstrated in which gaseous nanodrops containing divalent alkaline-earth or transition-metal ions are reduced by thermally generated electrons. Energies for the reactions 1) M(H(2)O)(24)(2+)(g) + e(-)(g)-->M(H(2)O)(24)(+)(g) and 2) M(H(2)O)(24)(2+)(g) + e(-)(g)-->MOH(H(2)O)(23)(+)(g) + H(g) and the hydrogen atom affinities of MOH(H(2)O)(23)(+)(g) are obtained from the number of water molecules lost through each pathway. From these measurements on clusters containing nine different metal ions and known thermochemical values that include solution hydrolysis energies, an average absolute SHE potential of +4.29 V vs. e(-)(g) (standard deviation of 0.02 V) and a real proton solvation free energy of -265 kcal mol(-1) are obtained. With this method, the absolute SHE potential can be obtained from a one-electron reduction of nanodrops containing divalent ions that are not observed to undergo one-electron reduction in aqueous solution.

Directly Relating Gas-Phase Cluster Measurements to Solution-Phase Hydrolysis, the Absolute Standard Hydrogen Electrode Potential, and the Absolute Proton Solvation Energy

PubMed Central

Donald, William A.; Leib, Ryan D.; O’Brien, Jeremy T.; Williams, Evan R.

2009-01-01

Solution-phase, half-cell potentials are measured relative to other half-cell potentials, resulting in a thermochemical ladder that is anchored to the standard hydrogen electrode (SHE), which is assigned an arbitrary value of 0 V. A new method for measuring the absolute SHE potential is demonstrated in which gaseous nanodrops containing divalent alkaline-earth or transition-metal ions are reduced by thermally generated electrons. Energies for the reactions 1) M-(H2O)242+(g)+e−(g)→M(H2O)24+(g) and 2) M(H2O)242+(g)+e−(g)→MOH(H2O)23+(g)+H(g) and the hydrogen atom affinities of MOH(H2O)23+(g) are obtained from the number of water molecules lost through each pathway. From these measurements on clusters containing nine different metal ions and known thermochemical values that include solution hydrolysis energies, an average absolute SHE potential of +4.29 V vs. e−(g) (standard deviation of 0.02 V) and a real proton solvation free energy of −265 kcal mol−1 are obtained. With this method, the absolute SHE potential can be obtained from a one-electron reduction of nanodrops containing divalent ions that are not observed to undergo one-electron reduction in aqueous solution. PMID:19440999

The trading time risks of stock investment in stock price drop

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jiang-Cheng; Tang, Nian-Sheng; Mei, Dong-Cheng; Li, Yun-Xian; Zhang, Wan

2016-11-01

This article investigates the trading time risk (TTR) of stock investment in the case of stock price drop of Dow Jones Industrial Average (ˆDJI) and Hushen300 data (CSI300), respectively. The escape time of stock price from the maximum to minimum in a data window length (DWL) is employed to measure the absolute TTR, the ratio of the escape time to data window length is defined as the relative TTR. Empirical probability density functions of the absolute and relative TTRs for the ˆDJI and CSI300 data evidence that (i) whenever the DWL increases, the absolute TTR increases, the relative TTR decreases otherwise; (ii) there is the monotonicity (or non-monotonicity) for the stability of the absolute (or relative) TTR; (iii) there is a peak distribution for shorter trading days and a two-peak distribution for longer trading days for the PDF of ratio; (iv) the trading days play an opposite role on the absolute (or relative) TTR and its stability between ˆDJI and CSI300 data.

Opportunistic testing versus organized prostate-specific antigen screening: outcome after 18 years in the Göteborg randomized population-based prostate cancer screening trial.

PubMed

Arnsrud Godtman, Rebecka; Holmberg, Erik; Lilja, Hans; Stranne, Johan; Hugosson, Jonas

2015-09-01

It has been shown that organized screening decreases prostate cancer (PC) mortality, but the effect of opportunistic screening is largely unknown. To compare the ability to reduce PC mortality and the risk of overdiagnosis between organized and opportunistic screening. The Göteborg screening study invited 10 000 randomly selected men for prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing every 2 yr since 1995, with a prostate biopsy recommended for men with PSA ≥2.5 ng/ml. The control group of 10 000 men not invited has been exposed to a previously reported increased rate of opportunistic PSA testing. Both groups were followed until December 31, 2012. Observed cumulative PC incidence and mortality rates in both groups were calculated using the actuarial method. Using historical data from 1990-1994 (pre-PSA era), we calculated expected PC incidence and mortality rates in the absence of any PSA testing. The number needed to invite (NNI) and the number needed to diagnose (NND) were calculated by comparing the expected versus observed incidence and mortality rates. At 18 yr, 1396 men were diagnosed with PC and 79 men died of PC in the screening group, compared to 962 and 122, respectively, in the control group. In the screening group, the observed cumulative PC incidence/mortality was 16%/0.98% compared to expected values of 6.8%/1.7%. The corresponding values for the control group were 11%/1.5% and 6.9%/1.7%. Organized screening was associated with an absolute PC-specific mortality reduction of 0.72% (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.50-0.94%) and relative risk reduction of 42% (95% CI 28-54%). There was an absolute reduction in PC deaths of 0.20% (95% CI -0.06% to 0.47%) and a relative risk reduction of 12% (95% CI -5 to 26%) associated with opportunistic PSA testing. NNI and NND were 139 (95% CI 107-200) and 13 for organized biennial screening and 493 (95% CI 213- -1563) and 23 for opportunistic screening. The extent of opportunistic screening could not be measured; incidence trends were used as a proxy. Organized screening reduces PC mortality but is associated with overdiagnosis. Opportunistic PSA testing had little if any effect on PC mortality and resulted in more overdiagnosis, with almost twice the number of men needed to be diagnosed to save one man from dying from PC compared to men offered an organized biennial screening program. Prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening within the framework of an organized program seems more effective than unorganized screening. Copyright © 2014 European Association of Urology. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Statins for stroke prevention: disappointment and hope.

PubMed

Amarenco, Pierre; Tonkin, Andrew M

2004-06-15

The occurrence of stroke increases with age, particularly affecting the older elderly, a population also at higher risk for coronary heart disease (CHD). Epidemiological and observational studies have not shown a clear association between cholesterol levels and all causes of stroke. Nonetheless, large, long-term statin trials in patients with established CHD or at high risk for CHD have shown that statins decrease stroke incidence in these populations. Combined data from 9 trials including 70,070 patients indicated relative and absolute risk reductions for stroke of 21% and 0.9%, respectively, with statins. The number of strokes prevented per 1000 patients treated for 5 years in patients with CHD is 9 for statins, compared with 17.3 for antiplatelet agents. Statins have not yet been shown to reduce stroke risk in the typical general population without known CHD, nor have they been shown to prevent recurrent stroke in patients with prior stroke. Potential reasons for the effects of statins on stroke and the non-cholesterol-lowering mechanisms that may be involved are discussed. Treatment strategies based on global cardiovascular risk may be most effective. Additional studies in patients representative of the typical stroke population are needed.

Nutrition support in hospitalised adults at nutritional risk.

PubMed

Feinberg, Joshua; Nielsen, Emil Eik; Korang, Steven Kwasi; Halberg Engell, Kirstine; Nielsen, Marie Skøtt; Zhang, Kang; Didriksen, Maria; Lund, Lisbeth; Lindahl, Niklas; Hallum, Sara; Liang, Ning; Xiong, Wenjing; Yang, Xuemei; Brunsgaard, Pernille; Garioud, Alexandre; Safi, Sanam; Lindschou, Jane; Kondrup, Jens; Gluud, Christian; Jakobsen, Janus C

2017-05-19

The prevalence of disease-related malnutrition in Western European hospitals is estimated to be about 30%. There is no consensus whether poor nutritional status causes poorer clinical outcome or if it is merely associated with it. The intention with all forms of nutrition support is to increase uptake of essential nutrients and improve clinical outcome. Previous reviews have shown conflicting results with regard to the effects of nutrition support. To assess the benefits and harms of nutrition support versus no intervention, treatment as usual, or placebo in hospitalised adults at nutritional risk. We searched Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) in the Cochrane Library, MEDLINE (Ovid SP), Embase (Ovid SP), LILACS (BIREME), and Science Citation Index Expanded (Web of Science). We also searched the World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (www.who.int/ictrp); ClinicalTrials.gov; Turning Research Into Practice (TRIP); Google Scholar; and BIOSIS, as well as relevant bibliographies of review articles and personal files. All searches are current to February 2016. We include randomised clinical trials, irrespective of publication type, publication date, and language, comparing nutrition support versus control in hospitalised adults at nutritional risk. We exclude trials assessing non-standard nutrition support. We used standard methodological procedures expected by Cochrane and the Cochrane Hepato-Biliary Group. We used trial domains to assess the risks of systematic error (bias). We conducted Trial Sequential Analyses to control for the risks of random errors. We considered a P value of 0.025 or less as statistically significant. We used GRADE methodology. Our primary outcomes were all-cause mortality, serious adverse events, and health-related quality of life. We included 244 randomised clinical trials with 28,619 participants that met our inclusion criteria. We considered all trials to be at high risk of bias. Two trials accounted for one-third of all included participants. The included participants were heterogenous with regard to disease (20 different medical specialties). The experimental interventions were parenteral nutrition (86 trials); enteral nutrition (tube-feeding) (80 trials); oral nutrition support (55 trials); mixed experimental intervention (12 trials); general nutrition support (9 trials); and fortified food (2 trials). The control interventions were treatment as usual (122 trials); no intervention (107 trials); and placebo (15 trials). In 204/244 trials, the intervention lasted three days or more.We found no evidence of a difference between nutrition support and control for short-term mortality (end of intervention). The absolute risk was 8.3% across the control groups compared with 7.8% (7.1% to 8.5%) in the intervention groups, based on the risk ratio (RR) of 0.94 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.86 to 1.03, P = 0.16, 21,758 participants, 114 trials, low quality of evidence). We found no evidence of a difference between nutrition support and control for long-term mortality (maximum follow-up). The absolute risk was 13.2% in the control group compared with 12.2% (11.6% to 13%) following nutritional interventions based on a RR of 0.93 (95% CI 0.88 to 0.99, P = 0.03, 23,170 participants, 127 trials, low quality of evidence). Trial Sequential Analysis showed we only had enough information to assess a risk ratio reduction of approximately 10% or more. A risk ratio reduction of 10% or more could be rejected.We found no evidence of a difference between nutrition support and control for short-term serious adverse events. The absolute risk was 9.9% in the control groups versus 9.2% (8.5% to 10%), with nutrition based on the RR of 0.93 (95% CI 0.86 to 1.01, P = 0.07, 22,087 participants, 123 trials, low quality of evidence). At long-term follow-up, the reduction in the risk of serious adverse events was 1.5%, from 15.2% in control groups to 13.8% (12.9% to 14.7%) following nutritional support (RR 0.91, 95% CI 0.85 to 0.97, P = 0.004, 23,413 participants, 137 trials, low quality of evidence). However, the Trial Sequential Analysis showed we only had enough information to assess a risk ratio reduction of approximately 10% or more. A risk ratio reduction of 10% or more could be rejected.Trial Sequential Analysis of enteral nutrition alone showed that enteral nutrition might reduce serious adverse events at maximum follow-up in people with different diseases. We could find no beneficial effect of oral nutrition support or parenteral nutrition support on all-cause mortality and serious adverse events in any subgroup.Only 16 trials assessed health-related quality of life. We performed a meta-analysis of two trials reporting EuroQoL utility score at long-term follow-up and found very low quality of evidence for effects of nutritional support on quality of life (mean difference (MD) -0.01, 95% CI -0.03 to 0.01; 3961 participants, two trials). Trial Sequential Analyses showed that we did not have enough information to confirm or reject clinically relevant intervention effects on quality of life.Nutrition support may increase weight at short-term follow-up (MD 1.32 kg, 95% CI 0.65 to 2.00, 5445 participants, 68 trials, very low quality of evidence). There is low-quality evidence for the effects of nutrition support on mortality and serious adverse events. Based on the results of our review, it does not appear to lead to a risk ratio reduction of approximately 10% or more in either all-cause mortality or serious adverse events at short-term and long-term follow-up.There is very low-quality evidence for an increase in weight with nutrition support at the end of treatment in hospitalised adults determined to be at nutritional risk. The effects of nutrition support on all remaining outcomes are unclear.Despite the clinically heterogenous population and the high risk of bias of all included trials, our analyses showed limited signs of statistical heterogeneity. Further trials may be warranted, assessing enteral nutrition (tube-feeding) for different patient groups. Future trials ought to be conducted with low risks of systematic errors and low risks of random errors, and they also ought to assess health-related quality of life.

Relative and absolute risks of all-cause and cause-specific deaths attributable to atrial fibrillation in middle-aged and elderly community dwellers.

PubMed

Ohsawa, Masaki; Okamura, Tomonori; Ogasawara, Kuniaki; Ogawa, Akira; Fujioka, Tomoaki; Tanno, Kozo; Yonekura, Yuki; Omama, Shinichi; Turin, Tanvir Chowdhury; Itai, Kazuyoshi; Ishibashi, Yasuhiro; Morino, Yoshihiro; Itoh, Tomonori; Miyamatsu, Naomi; Onoda, Toshiyuki; Kuribayashi, Toru; Makita, Shinji; Yoshida, Yuki; Nakamura, Motoyuki; Tanaka, Fumitaka; Ohta, Mutsuko; Sakata, Kiyomi; Okayama, Akira

2015-04-01

The relative and absolute risks of outcomes other than all-cause death (ACD) attributable to atrial fibrillation (AF) stratified age have not been sufficiently investigated. A prospective study of 23,634 community dwellers aged 40 years or older without organic cardiovascular disease (AF=335, non-AF=23,299) was conducted. Multivariate-adjusted rates, rate ratios (RRs) and excess deaths (EDs) for ACD, cardiovascular death (CVD) and non-cardiovascular death (non-CVD), and sex- and age-adjusted RR and ED in middle-aged (40 to 69) and elderly (70 years or older) for ACD, CVD, non-CVD, sudden cardiac death (SCD), stroke-related death (Str-D), neoplasm-related death (NPD), and infection-related death (IFD) attributable to AF were estimated using Poisson regression. Multivariate-adjusted analysis revealed that AF significantly increased the risk of ACD (RR [95% confidence interval]:1.70 [1.23-2.95]) and CVD (3.86 [2.38-6.27]), but not non-CVD. Age-stratified analysis revealed that AF increased the risk of Str-D in middle-aged (14.5 [4.77-44.3]) and elderly individuals (4.92 [1.91-12.7]), SCD in elderly individuals (3.21 [1.37-7.51]), and might increase the risk of IFD in elderly individuals (2.02 [0.80-4.65], p=0.098). The RR of CVD was higher in middle-aged versus elderly individuals (RRs, 6.19 vs. 3.57) but the absolute risk difference was larger in elderly individuals (EDs: 7.6 vs. 3.0 per 1000 person-years). Larger absolute risk differences for ACD and CVD attributable to AF among elderly people indicate that the absolute burden of AF is higher in elderly versus middle-aged people despite the relatively small RR. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

A randomized trial of rectal indomethacin and sublingual nitrates to prevent post-ERCP pancreatitis.

PubMed

Sotoudehmanesh, Rasoul; Eloubeidi, Mohamad Ali; Asgari, Ali Ali; Farsinejad, Maryam; Khatibian, Morteza

2014-06-01

Acute pancreatitis is the most common adverse event of endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP). Recent data suggest that indomethacin can reduce the risk of post-ERCP pancreatitis (PEP) in high-risk individuals. However, whether the combination of indomethacin and sublingual nitrates is superior to indomethacin alone is unknown. Therefore, we aimed to evaluate the efficacy of rectally administered indomethacin plus sublingual nitrate compared with indomethacin alone to prevent PEP. During a 17-month period, all eligible patients who underwent ERCP were enrolled in this study. We excluded patients who had undergone a prior endoscopic sphincterotomy. In a double-blind controlled randomized trial, patients received a suppository containing 100 mg of indomethacin, plus 5 mg of sublingual nitrate (group A), or a suppository containing 100 mg of indomethacin, plus sublingual placebo (group B), before ERCP. Serum amylase levels and clinically pertinent evaluations were measured in all patients after ERCP. Of the 300 enrolled patients, 150 received indomethacin plus nitrate. Thirty-three patients developed pancreatitis: 10 (6.7%) in group A and 23 (15.3%) in group B (P=0.016, risk ratio=0.39, 95% confidence intervals (CI): 0.18-0.86). More than 80% of the patients were at high risk of developing pancreatitis after ERCP. Absolute risk reduction, relative risk reduction, and number needed to treat for the prevention of PEP were 8.6% (95% CI: 4.7-14.5), 56.2% (95% CI: 50.6-60.8), and 12 (95% CI: 7-22), respectively. Combination of rectal indomethacin and sublingual nitrate given before ERCP was significantly more likely to reduce the incidence of PEP than indomethacin suppository alone. Multicenter trials to confirm these promising findings are needed.

Effect of RAAS blockers on adverse clinical outcomes in high CVD risk subjects with atrial fibrillation: A meta-analysis and systematic review of randomized controlled trials.

PubMed

Chaugai, Sandip; Sherpa, Lhamo Yanchang; Sepehry, Amir A; Arima, Hisatomi; Wang, Dao Wen

2016-06-01

Recent studies have demonstrated that atrial fibrillation significantly increases the risk of adverse clinical outcomes in high cardiovascular disease risk subjects. Application of renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system blockers for prevention of recurrence of atrial fibrillation and adverse clinical outcomes in subjects with atrial fibrillation is a theoretically appealing concept. However, results of clinical trials evaluating the effect of renin-angiotensin-aldosterone blockers on adverse clinical outcomes in high cardiovascular disease risk subjects with atrial fibrillation remain inconclusive.A pooled study of 6 randomized controlled trials assessing the efficacy of renin-angiotensin-aldosterone blockers on subjects with atrial fibrillation was performed.A total of 6 randomized controlled trials enrolled a total of 53,510 patients followed for 1 to 5 years. RAAS blockade therapy was associated with 14% reduction in the incidence of heart failure (OR: 0.86, [95%CI: 0.76- 0.97], P=0.018) and 17% reduction in the incidence of CVE (OR: 0.83, [95%CI: 0.70-0.99], P = 0.038). The corresponding decline in absolute risk against heart failure (ARR: 1.4%, [95%CI: 0.2-2.6%], P = 0.018) and CVE (ARR: 3.5%, [95%CI: 0.0-6.9%], P = 0.045) in the AF group was much higher than the non-AF group for heart failure (ARR: 0.4%, [95%CI: 0.0-0.7%], P = 0.057) and CVE (ARR: 1.6%, [95%CI: -0.1% to 3.3%], P = 0.071). No significant effect was noted on all-cause or cardiovascular mortality, stroke, or myocardial infarction.This study suggests that RAAS blockade offers protection against heart failure and cardiovascular events in high cardiovascular disease risk subjects with atrial fibrillation.

Effect of RAAS blockers on adverse clinical outcomes in high CVD risk subjects with atrial fibrillation

PubMed Central

Chaugai, Sandip; Sherpa, Lhamo Yanchang; Sepehry, Amir A.; Arima, Hisatomi; Wang, Dao Wen

2016-01-01

Abstract Recent studies have demonstrated that atrial fibrillation significantly increases the risk of adverse clinical outcomes in high cardiovascular disease risk subjects. Application of renin–angiotensin–aldosterone system blockers for prevention of recurrence of atrial fibrillation and adverse clinical outcomes in subjects with atrial fibrillation is a theoretically appealing concept. However, results of clinical trials evaluating the effect of renin–angiotensin–aldosterone blockers on adverse clinical outcomes in high cardiovascular disease risk subjects with atrial fibrillation remain inconclusive. A pooled study of 6 randomized controlled trials assessing the efficacy of renin–angiotensin–aldosterone blockers on subjects with atrial fibrillation was performed. A total of 6 randomized controlled trials enrolled a total of 53,510 patients followed for 1 to 5 years. RAAS blockade therapy was associated with 14% reduction in the incidence of heart failure (OR: 0.86, [95%CI: 0.76– 0.97], P=0.018) and 17% reduction in the incidence of CVE (OR: 0.83, [95%CI: 0.70–0.99], P = 0.038). The corresponding decline in absolute risk against heart failure (ARR: 1.4%, [95%CI: 0.2–2.6%], P = 0.018) and CVE (ARR: 3.5%, [95%CI: 0.0–6.9%], P = 0.045) in the AF group was much higher than the non-AF group for heart failure (ARR: 0.4%, [95%CI: 0.0–0.7%], P = 0.057) and CVE (ARR: 1.6%, [95%CI: –0.1% to 3.3%], P = 0.071). No significant effect was noted on all-cause or cardiovascular mortality, stroke, or myocardial infarction. This study suggests that RAAS blockade offers protection against heart failure and cardiovascular events in high cardiovascular disease risk subjects with atrial fibrillation. PMID:27368043

Projected cancer risks potentially related to past, current, and future practices in paediatric CT in the United Kingdom, 1990-2020.

PubMed

Journy, Neige M Y; Lee, Choonsik; Harbron, Richard W; McHugh, Kieran; Pearce, Mark S; Berrington de González, Amy

2017-01-03

To project risks of developing cancer and the number of cases potentially induced by past, current, and future computed tomography (CT) scans performed in the United Kingdom in individuals aged <20 years. Organ doses were estimated from surveys of individual scan parameters and CT protocols used in the United Kingdom. Frequencies of scans were estimated from the NHS Diagnostic Imaging Dataset. Excess lifetime risks (ELRs) of radiation-related cancer were calculated as cumulative lifetime risks, accounting for survival probabilities, using the RadRAT risk assessment tool. In 2000-2008, ELRs ranged from 0.3 to 1 per 1000 head scans and 1 to 5 per 1000 non-head scans. ELRs per scan were reduced by 50-70% in 2000-2008 compared with 1990-1995, subsequent to dose reduction over time. The 130 750 scans performed in 2015 in the United Kingdom were projected to induce 64 (90% uncertainty interval (UI): 38-113) future cancers. Current practices would lead to about 300 (90% UI: 230-680) future cancers induced by scans performed in 2016-2020. Absolute excess risks from single exposures would be low compared with background risks, but even small increases in annual CT rates over the next years would substantially increase the number of potential subsequent cancers.

Dietary supplements and mortality in older women: the Iowa Women's Health Study

PubMed Central

Mursu, Jaakko; Robien, Kim; Harnack, Lisa J.; Park, Kyong; Jacobs, David R.

2014-01-01

Background Although dietary supplements are commonly taken to avoid chronic disease, long-term health consequences of many compounds are unknown. Methods We assessed the use of vitamin and mineral supplements in relation to total mortality in 38 772 older women in the Iowa Women's Health Study, mean age 61.6 years at baseline in 1986. Supplement use was self-reported in 1986, 1997 and 2004. Through December 31, 2008, 15 594 deaths (40.2%) were identified through the State Health Registry of Iowa and the National Death Index. Results In multivariable adjusted proportional hazards regression models, the use of multivitamins (Hazard Ratio (HR), 1.06 [95% CI, 1.02-1.10], Absolute Risk Increase (ARI), 2.4%), vitamin B6 (HR, 1.10 [95% CI, 1.01-1.21], ARI, 4.1%), folic acid (HR, 1.15 [95% CI, 1.00-1.32], ARI, 5.9%), iron (HR, 1.10 [95% CI, 1.03-1.17], ARI, 3.9%), magnesium (HR, 1.08 [95% CI, 1.01-1.15], ARI, 3.6%), zinc (HR, 1.08 [95% CI, 1.01-1.15], ARI, 3.0%) and copper (HR, 1.45 [95% CI, 1.20-1.75], ARI, 18.0%) were associated with increased risk of total mortality when compared with corresponding nonusers, while calcium was inversely related (HR, 0.91 [95% CI, 0.88-0.94], Absolute Risk Reduction (ARR), 3.8%). Findings for iron and calcium were replicated in separate shorter-term analyses (10-year, 6-year and 4-year follow-up) each with about 15% dead, starting in 1986, 1997, and 2004. Conclusion In older women several commonly used dietary vitamin and mineral supplements may be associated with increased total mortality risk, most strongly supplemental iron, while calcium, in contrast to many studies, was associated with decreased risk. PMID:21987192

Diet during pregnancy and infancy and risk of allergic or autoimmune disease: A systematic review and meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Garcia-Larsen, Vanessa; Jarrold, Katharine; Chivinge, Jennifer; Robinson, Zoe; Geoghegan, Natalie; Ruparelia, Alisha; Devani, Pooja; Leonardi-Bee, Jo

2018-01-01

Background There is uncertainty about the influence of diet during pregnancy and infancy on a child’s immune development. We assessed whether variations in maternal or infant diet can influence risk of allergic or autoimmune disease. Methods and findings Two authors selected studies, extracted data, and assessed risk of bias. Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) was used to assess certainty of findings. We searched Medical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System Online (MEDLINE), Excerpta Medica dataBASE (EMBASE), Web of Science, Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), and Literatura Latino Americana em Ciências da Saúde (LILACS) between January 1946 and July 2013 for observational studies and until December 2017 for intervention studies that evaluated the relationship between diet during pregnancy, lactation, or the first year of life and future risk of allergic or autoimmune disease. We identified 260 original studies (964,143 participants) of milk feeding, including 1 intervention trial of breastfeeding promotion, and 173 original studies (542,672 participants) of other maternal or infant dietary exposures, including 80 trials of maternal (n = 26), infant (n = 32), or combined (n = 22) interventions. Risk of bias was high in 125 (48%) milk feeding studies and 44 (25%) studies of other dietary exposures. Evidence from 19 intervention trials suggests that oral supplementation with nonpathogenic micro-organisms (probiotics) during late pregnancy and lactation may reduce risk of eczema (Risk Ratio [RR] 0.78; 95% CI 0.68–0.90; I2 = 61%; Absolute Risk Reduction 44 cases per 1,000; 95% CI 20–64), and 6 trials suggest that fish oil supplementation during pregnancy and lactation may reduce risk of allergic sensitisation to egg (RR 0.69, 95% CI 0.53–0.90; I2 = 15%; Absolute Risk Reduction 31 cases per 1,000; 95% CI 10–47). GRADE certainty of these findings was moderate. We found weaker support for the hypotheses that breastfeeding promotion reduces risk of eczema during infancy (1 intervention trial), that longer exclusive breastfeeding is associated with reduced type 1 diabetes mellitus (28 observational studies), and that probiotics reduce risk of allergic sensitisation to cow’s milk (9 intervention trials), where GRADE certainty of findings was low. We did not find that other dietary exposures—including prebiotic supplements, maternal allergenic food avoidance, and vitamin, mineral, fruit, and vegetable intake—influence risk of allergic or autoimmune disease. For many dietary exposures, data were inconclusive or inconsistent, such that we were unable to exclude the possibility of important beneficial or harmful effects. In this comprehensive systematic review, we were not able to include more recent observational studies or verify data via direct contact with authors, and we did not evaluate measures of food diversity during infancy. Conclusions Our findings support a relationship between maternal diet and risk of immune-mediated diseases in the child. Maternal probiotic and fish oil supplementation may reduce risk of eczema and allergic sensitisation to food, respectively. PMID:29489823

Occupational factors and reproductive outcomes among a cohort of female veterinarians.

PubMed

Wilkins, J R; Steele, L L

1998-07-01

To estimate absolute and relative risks of preterm delivery (PTD) and small-for-gestational-age (SGA) births among a cohort of female veterinarians in relation to selected occupational factors, including clinical practice type (CPT). Retrospective cohort survey. 2,997 female graduates from US veterinary colleges between 1970 and 1980. Relevant health and occupational data were collected through a self-administered mail questionnaire with telephone follow-up of nonrespondents. Absolute and relative risks of PTD and SGA births were estimated in relation to maternal CPT at the time of conception and exposure to 13 occupational factors. Attempts were made to control confounding by use of multiple logistic regression analyses. Absolute and relative risks of PTD were highest for veterinarians employed in exclusively equine clinical practice. Although several increased, none of the CPT-specific relative risk estimates were significantly different from the null value of 1. Exposure-specific analyses indicated that occupational involvement with solvents among exclusively small animal practitioners was associated with the highest relative risk of PTD. A small number of SGA births limited information that could be obtained from these analyses. Overall absolute risks of PTD and SGA births among cohort members were much lower in comparison with the general female population. Given the large number of women currently practicing and entering the profession of veterinary medicine, clinical tasks associated with potential reproductive hazards should be approached with heightened awareness and increased caution, especially activities that may involve exposure to solvents.

Formatting modifications in GRADE evidence profiles improved guideline panelists comprehension and accessibility to information. A randomized trial.

PubMed

Vandvik, Per Olav; Santesso, Nancy; Akl, Elie A; You, John; Mulla, Sohail; Spencer, Frederick A; Johnston, Bradley C; Brozek, Jan; Kreis, Julia; Brandt, Linn; Zhou, Qi; Schünemann, Holger J; Guyatt, Gordon

2012-07-01

To determine the effects of formatting alternatives in Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) evidence profiles on guideline panelists' preferences, comprehension, and accessibility. We randomized 116 antithrombotic therapy guideline panelists to review one of two table formats with four formatting alternatives. After answering relevant questions, panelists reviewed the other format and reported their preferences for specific formatting alternatives. Panelists (88 of 116 invited [76%]) preferred presentation of study event rates over no study event rates (median 1 [interquartile range (IQR) 1] on 1-7 scale), absolute risk differences over absolute risks (median 2 [IQR 3]), and additional information in table cells over footnotes (median 1 [IQR 2]). Panelists presented with time frame information in the tables, and not only in footnotes, were more likely to correctly answer questions regarding time frame (58% vs. 11%, P<0.0001), and those presented with risk differences and not absolute risks were more likely to correctly interpret confidence intervals for absolute effects (95% vs. 54%, P<0.0001). Information was considered easy to find, easy to comprehend, and helpful in making recommendations regardless of table format (median 6, IQR 0-1). Panelists found information in GRADE evidence profiles accessible. Correct comprehension of some key information was improved by providing additional information in table and presenting risk differences. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Geographical trends in infant mortality: England and Wales, 1970-2006.

PubMed

Norman, Paul; Gregory, Ian; Dorling, Danny; Baker, Allan

2008-01-01

At national level in England and Wales, infant mortality rates fell rapidly from the early 1970s and into the 1980s. Subnational areas have also experienced a reduction in levels of infant mortality. While rates continued to fall to 2006, the rate of reduction has slowed. Although the Government Office Regions Yorkshire and The Humber, the North West and the West Midlands and the Office for National Statistics local authority types Cities and Services and London Cosmopolitan have experienced relatively large absolute reductions in infant mortality, their rates remained high compared with the national average. Within all regions and local authority types, a strong relationship was found between ward level deprivation and infant mortality rates. Nevertheless, levels of infant mortality declined over time even in the most deprived areas with a narrowing of absolute differences in rates between areas. Areas in which the level of deprivation eased have experienced greater than average reductions in levels of infant mortality.

Pneumonia diagnosis in childhood and incidence of leukaemia, lymphoma and brain cancer: a Danish nationwide cohort study.

PubMed

Søgaard, Kirstine Kobberøe; Farkas, Dóra Körmendiné; Sørensen, Henrik Toft

2017-12-29

There is an ongoing debate on the possible association between infections in early childhood and subsequent cancer risk, but it remains unclear if a hospital admission for infection is associated with risk of childhood cancer diagnosis. We examined if a hospital-based diagnosis of pneumonia was a clinical marker of the three most common childhood cancers. Population-based cohort study. Denmark, hospital diagnoses, 1994-2013. Using national health registries, we compared the observed incidence of leukaemia, lymphoma and brain cancer among 83 935 children with a hospital-based pneumonia diagnosis with that expected among children in the general population. We calculated absolute cancer risks and standardised incidence ratios (SIRs) as a measure of relative risk. The cancer SIRs were substantially increased during the first 6 months of follow-up; lymphoid leukaemia: 6.2 (95% CI 3.5 to 10.3); myeloid leukaemia: 14.8 (95% CI 6.0 to 30.6); Hodgkin's lymphoma: 60.8 (95% CI 26.2 to 120), non-Hodgkin's lymphoma: 15.9 (95% CI 5.2 to 37.2) and brain cancer: 4.4 (95% CI 1.9 to 8.7). The 6-month absolute risks of leukaemia, lymphoma and brain cancer were all low, reaching 0.05% when combined. An increased risk persisted beyond 5 years for non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and brain cancer. However, the 5-year absolute cancer risk was 0.14%. The short-term incidence of leukaemia, lymphoma and brain cancer was higher than expected and persisted beyond 5 years for non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and brain cancer. However, the absolute cancer risk was low. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Transcatheter aortic-valve replacement with a self-expanding prosthesis.

PubMed

Adams, David H; Popma, Jeffrey J; Reardon, Michael J; Yakubov, Steven J; Coselli, Joseph S; Deeb, G Michael; Gleason, Thomas G; Buchbinder, Maurice; Hermiller, James; Kleiman, Neal S; Chetcuti, Stan; Heiser, John; Merhi, William; Zorn, George; Tadros, Peter; Robinson, Newell; Petrossian, George; Hughes, G Chad; Harrison, J Kevin; Conte, John; Maini, Brijeshwar; Mumtaz, Mubashir; Chenoweth, Sharla; Oh, Jae K

2014-05-08

We compared transcatheter aortic-valve replacement (TAVR), using a self-expanding transcatheter aortic-valve bioprosthesis, with surgical aortic-valve replacement in patients with severe aortic stenosis and an increased risk of death during surgery. We recruited patients with severe aortic stenosis who were at increased surgical risk as determined by the heart team at each study center. Risk assessment included the Society of Thoracic Surgeons Predictor Risk of Mortality estimate and consideration of other key risk factors. Eligible patients were randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to TAVR with the self-expanding transcatheter valve (TAVR group) or to surgical aortic-valve replacement (surgical group). The primary end point was the rate of death from any cause at 1 year, evaluated with the use of both noninferiority and superiority testing. A total of 795 patients underwent randomization at 45 centers in the United States. In the as-treated analysis, the rate of death from any cause at 1 year was significantly lower in the TAVR group than in the surgical group (14.2% vs. 19.1%), with an absolute reduction in risk of 4.9 percentage points (upper boundary of the 95% confidence interval, -0.4; P<0.001 for noninferiority; P = 0.04 for superiority). The results were similar in the intention-to-treat analysis. In a hierarchical testing procedure, TAVR was noninferior with respect to echocardiographic indexes of valve stenosis, functional status, and quality of life. Exploratory analyses suggested a reduction in the rate of major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events and no increase in the risk of stroke. In patients with severe aortic stenosis who are at increased surgical risk, TAVR with a self-expanding transcatheter aortic-valve bioprosthesis was associated with a significantly higher rate of survival at 1 year than surgical aortic-valve replacement. (Funded by Medtronic; U.S. CoreValve High Risk Study ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01240902.).

Projecting Individualized Absolute Invasive Breast Cancer Risk in US Hispanic Women

PubMed Central

John, Esther M.; Slattery, Martha L.; Gomez, Scarlett Lin; Yu, Mandi; LaCroix, Andrea Z.; Pee, David; Chlebowski, Rowan T.; Hines, Lisa M.; Thompson, Cynthia A.; Gail, Mitchell H.

2017-01-01

Background: There is no model to estimate absolute invasive breast cancer risk for Hispanic women. Methods: The San Francisco Bay Area Breast Cancer Study (SFBCS) provided data on Hispanic breast cancer case patients (533 US-born, 553 foreign-born) and control participants (464 US-born, 947 foreign-born). These data yielded estimates of relative risk (RR) and attributable risk (AR) separately for US-born and foreign-born women. Nativity-specific absolute risks were estimated by combining RR and AR information with nativity-specific invasive breast cancer incidence and competing mortality rates from the California Cancer Registry and Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program to develop the Hispanic risk model (HRM). In independent data, we assessed model calibration through observed/expected (O/E) ratios, and we estimated discriminatory accuracy with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) statistic. Results: The US-born HRM included age at first full-term pregnancy, biopsy for benign breast disease, and family history of breast cancer; the foreign-born HRM also included age at menarche. The HRM estimated lower risks than the National Cancer Institute’s Breast Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (BCRAT) for US-born Hispanic women, but higher risks in foreign-born women. In independent data from the Women’s Health Initiative, the HRM was well calibrated for US-born women (observed/expected [O/E] ratio = 1.07, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.81 to 1.40), but seemed to overestimate risk in foreign-born women (O/E ratio = 0.66, 95% CI = 0.41 to 1.07). The AUC was 0.564 (95% CI = 0.485 to 0.644) for US-born and 0.625 (95% CI = 0.487 to 0.764) for foreign-born women. Conclusions: The HRM is the first absolute risk model that is based entirely on data specific to Hispanic women by nativity. Further studies in Hispanic women are warranted to evaluate its validity. PMID:28003316

Integration of second cancer risk calculations in a radiotherapy treatment planning system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartmann, M.; Schneider, U.

2014-03-01

Second cancer risk in patients, in particular in children, who were treated with radiotherapy is an important side effect. It should be minimized by selecting an appropriate treatment plan for the patient. The objectives of this study were to integrate a risk model for radiation induced cancer into a treatment planning system which allows to judge different treatment plans with regard to second cancer induction and to quantify the potential reduction in predicted risk. A model for radiation induced cancer including fractionation effects which is valid for doses in the radiotherapy range was integrated into a treatment planning system. From the three-dimensional (3D) dose distribution the 3D-risk equivalent dose (RED) was calculated on an organ specific basis. In addition to RED further risk coefficients like OED (organ equivalent dose), EAR (excess absolute risk) and LAR (lifetime attributable risk) are computed. A risk model for radiation induced cancer was successfully integrated in a treatment planning system. Several risk coefficients can be viewed and used to obtain critical situations were a plan can be optimised. Risk-volume-histograms and organ specific risks were calculated for different treatment plans and were used in combination with NTCP estimates for plan evaluation. It is concluded that the integration of second cancer risk estimates in a commercial treatment planning system is feasible. It can be used in addition to NTCP modelling for optimising treatment plans which result in the lowest possible second cancer risk for a patient.

Risk aversion and compliance in markets for pollution control.

PubMed

Stranlund, John K

2008-07-01

This paper examines the effects of risk aversion on compliance choices in markets for pollution control. A firm's decision to be compliant or not is independent of its manager's risk preference. However, non-compliant firms with risk-averse managers will have lower violations than otherwise identical firms with risk-neutral managers. The violations of non-compliant firms with risk-averse managers are independent of differences in their profit functions and their initial allocations of permits if and only if their managers' utility functions exhibit constant absolute risk aversion. However, firm-level characteristics do impact violation choices when managers have coefficients of absolute risk aversion that are increasing or decreasing in profit levels. Finally, in the equilibrium of a market for emissions rights with widespread non-compliance, risk aversion is associated with higher permit prices, better environmental quality, and lower aggregate violations.

Harm Reduction as “Continuum Care” in Alcohol Abuse Disorder

PubMed Central

Maremmani, Icro; Cibin, Mauro; Pani, Pier Paolo; Rossi, Alessandro; Turchetti, Giuseppe

2015-01-01

Alcohol abuse is one of the most important risk factors for health and is a major cause of death and morbidity. Despite this, only about one-tenth of individuals with alcohol abuse disorders receive therapeutic intervention and specific rehabilitation. Among the various dichotomies that limit an effective approach to the problem of alcohol use disorder treatment, one of the most prominent is integrated treatment versus harm reduction. For years, these two divergent strategies have been considered to be opposite poles of different philosophies of intervention. One is bound to the search for methods that aim to lead the subject to complete abstinence; the other prioritizes a progressive decline in substance use, with maximum reduction in the damage that is correlated with curtailing that use. Reduction of alcohol intake does not require any particular setting, but does require close collaboration between the general practitioner, specialized services for addiction, alcohology services and psychiatry. In patients who reach that target, significant savings in terms of health and social costs can be achieved. Harm reduction is a desirable target, even from an economic point of view. At the present state of neuroscientific knowledge, it is possible to go one step further in the logic that led to the integration of psychosocial and pharmacological approaches, by attempting to remove the shadows of social judgment that, at present, are aiming for a course of treatment that is directed towards absolute abstention. PMID:26610535

Caspofungin versus fluconazole as prophylaxis of invasive fungal infection in high-risk liver transplantation recipients: A propensity score analysis.

PubMed

Fortún, Jesús; Muriel, Alfonso; Martín-Dávila, Pilar; Montejo, Miguel; Len, Oscar; Torre-Cisneros, Julian; Carratalá, Jordi; Muñoz, Patricia; Fariñas, Carmen; Moreno, Asunción; Fresco, Gema; Goikoetxea, Josune; Gavaldá, Joan; Pozo, Juan Carlos; Bodro, Marta; Vena, Antonio; Casafont, Fernando; Cervera, Carlos; Silva, José Tiago; Aguado, José M

2016-04-01

Targeted prophylaxis has proven to be an efficient strategy in liver transplantation recipients (LTRs). The aim of this study was to compare the effectiveness and safety of caspofungin with that of fluconazole in high-risk (HR) LTRs. Caspofungin and fluconazole were compared in a multicenter, retrospective, cohort study in HR-LTRs in Spain. Outcomes were assessed at 180 days after transplantation. A propensity score approach was applied. During the study period (2005-2012), we analyzed 195 HR-LTRs from 9 hospitals. By type of prophylaxis, 97 patients received caspofungin and 98 received fluconazole. Of a total of 17 (8.7%) global invasive fungal infections (IFIs), breakthrough IFIs accounted for 11 (5.6%) and invasive aspergillosis (IA) accounted for 6 (3.1%). By univariate analysis, no differences were observed in the prevention of global IFIs. However, caspofungin was associated with a significant reduction in the rate of breakthrough IFIs (2.1% versus 9.2%, P = 0.04). In patients requiring dialysis (n = 62), caspofungin significantly reduced the frequency of breakthrough IFIs (P = 0.03). The propensity score analysis confirmed a significant reduction in the frequency of IA in patients receiving caspofungin (absolute risk reduction, 0.06; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.001-0.11; P = 0.044). Linear regression analysis revealed a significant decrease in blood alanine aminotransferase levels and a significant increase in bilirubin levels after administration of caspofungin. Caspofungin and fluconazole have similar efficacy for the prevention of global IFIs in HR-LTRs in this observational, multicenter cohort study. However, caspofungin was associated with a significant reduction of breakthrough IFIs and, after adjusting for confounders, caspofungin was associated with a lower rate of IA. This benefit is probably more favorable in patients on dialysis. Caspofungin is safe in HR-LTRs, although bilirubin levels may be increased. © 2015 American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases.

Aspirin for the Primary Prevention of Cardiovascular Events: A Systematic Evidence Review for the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force.

PubMed

Guirguis-Blake, Janelle M; Evans, Corinne V; Senger, Caitlyn A; O'Connor, Elizabeth A; Whitlock, Evelyn P

2016-06-21

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death in the United States. To update a systematic review about the benefits of aspirin for the primary prevention of cardiovascular events in adults aged 40 years or older and to evaluate effect modification in subpopulations. MEDLINE, PubMed, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (January 2008 to January 2015), and Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews. Two investigators independently reviewed 3396 abstracts and 65 articles according to prespecified criteria. All included trials evaluated aspirin for the primary prevention of cardiovascular events. Two investigators assessed study quality; data were abstracted by 1 reviewer and checked by a second. Two good-quality and 9 fair-quality randomized, controlled trials were identified. In analyses of all doses, aspirin reduced the risk for nonfatal myocardial infarction (MI) (relative risk [RR], 0.78 [95% CI, 0.71 to 0.87]) but not nonfatal stroke; aspirin showed little or no benefit for all-cause or cardiovascular mortality. Benefits began within the first 5 years. Older adults achieved greater relative MI reduction, but no other effect modifications were found in analyzed subpopulations. In trials with aspirin doses of 100 mg or less per day, the reduction in nonfatal MI benefit persisted (absolute risk reduction, 0.15 to 1.43 events per 1000 person-years) and a 14% reduction in nonfatal stroke benefit was noted, but no benefit was found for all-cause mortality (RR, 0.95 [CI, 0.89 to 1.01]) or cardiovascular mortality (RR, 0.97 [CI, 0.85 to 1.10]). Evidence for aspirin in primary prevention is heterogeneous and limited by rare events and few credible subgroup analyses. The beneficial effect of aspirin for the primary prevention of CVD is modest and occurs at doses of 100 mg or less per day. Older adults seem to achieve a greater relative MI benefit. Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality.

Neonatal Mortality and Inequalities in Bangladesh: Differential Progress and Sub-national Developments.

PubMed

Minnery, Mark; Firth, Sonja; Hodge, Andrew; Jimenez-Soto, Eliana

2015-09-01

A rapid reduction in under-five mortality has put Bangladesh on-track to reach Millennium Development Goal 4. Little research, however, has been conducted into neonatal reductions and sub-national rates in the country, with considerable disparities potentially masked by national reductions. The aim of this paper is to estimate national and sub-national rates of neonatal mortality to compute relative and absolute inequalities between sub-national groups and draw comparisons with rates of under-five mortality. Mortality rates for under-five children and neonates were estimated directly for 1980-1981 to 2010-2011 using data from six waves of the Demographic and Health Survey. Rates were stratified by levels of rural/urban location, household wealth and maternal education. Absolute and relative inequalities within these groups were measured by rate differences and ratios, and where possible, slope and relative indices of inequality. National mortality was shown to have decreased dramatically although at differential rates for under-fives and neonates. Across all equity markers, a general pattern of declining absolute but constant relative inequalities was found. For mortality rates stratified by education and wealth mixed evidence suggests that relative inequalities may have also fallen. Although disparities remain, Bangladesh has achieved a rare combination of substantive reductions in mortality levels without increases in relative inequalities. A coalescence of substantial increases in coverage and equitable distribution of key child and neonatal interventions with widespread health sectoral and policy changes over the last 30 years may in part explain this exceptional pattern.

Ablative efficiency of lithium triborate laser vaporization and conventional transurethral resection of the prostate: a comparison using transrectal three-dimensional ultrasound volumetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gross, Oliver; Sulser, Tullio; Hefermehl, Lukas J.; Strebel, Daniel D.; Largo, Remo; Mortezavi, Ashkan; Poyet, Cédric; Eberli, Daniel; Zimmermann, Matthias; Müller, Alexander; Michel, Maurice S.; Müntener, Michael; Seifert, Hans-Helge; Hermanns, Thomas

2011-03-01

Introduction and objectives: It is unknown if tissue ablation following 120W lithium triborate (LBO) laser vaporization (LV) of the prostate is comparable to that following transurethral resection of the prostate (TURP). Therefore, transrectal 3D-ultrasound volumetry of the prostate was performed to compare the efficiency of tissue ablation between LBO-LV and TURP. Methods: Between 03/2008 and 03/2010 110 patients underwent routine LBO-LV (n=61) or TURP (n=49). Transrectal 3D-ultrasound with planimetric volumetry of the prostate was performed pre-operatively, after catheter removal, 6 weeks and 6 months. Results: Median prostate volume was 52.5ml in the LV group and 46.9ml in the TURP group. After catheter removal, median absolute volume reduction (LV: 7.05ml, TURP: 15.8ml) and relative volume reduction (15.9% vs. 34.2%) were significantly lower in the LV group (p<0.001). After 6 weeks/ 6 months, the relative volume reduction but not the absolute remained significantly lower in the LV group. Conclusions: LBO-LV is an efficient procedure evidenced by an absolute tissue ablation not significantly different to that after TURP. However, TURP seems to be superior due to a higher relative tissue ablation. The differences in tissue ablation had no impact on the early clinical outcome. Delayed volume reduction indicates that prostatic swelling occurs early after LV and then decreases subsequently.

Global and local scale flood discharge simulations in the Rhine River basin for flood risk reduction benchmarking in the Flagship Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gädeke, Anne; Gusyev, Maksym; Magome, Jun; Sugiura, Ai; Cullmann, Johannes; Takeuchi, Kuniyoshi

2015-04-01

The global flood risk assessment is prerequisite to set global measurable targets of post-Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) that mobilize international cooperation and national coordination towards disaster risk reduction (DRR) and requires the establishment of a uniform flood risk assessment methodology on various scales. To address these issues, the International Flood Initiative (IFI) has initiated a Flagship Project, which was launched in year 2013, to support flood risk reduction benchmarking at global, national and local levels. In the Flagship Project road map, it is planned to identify the original risk (1), to identify the reduced risk (2), and to facilitate the risk reduction actions (3). In order to achieve this goal at global, regional and local scales, international research collaboration is absolutely necessary involving domestic and international institutes, academia and research networks such as UNESCO International Centres. The joint collaboration by ICHARM and BfG was the first attempt that produced the first step (1a) results on the flood discharge estimates with inundation maps under way. As a result of this collaboration, we demonstrate the outcomes of the first step of the IFI Flagship Project to identify flood hazard in the Rhine river basin on the global and local scale. In our assessment, we utilized a distributed hydrological Block-wise TOP (BTOP) model on 20-km and 0.5-km scales with local precipitation and temperature input data between 1980 and 2004. We utilized existing 20-km BTOP model, which is applied globally, and constructed the local scale 0.5-km BTOP model for the Rhine River basin. For the BTOP model results, both calibrated 20-km and 0.5-km BTOP models had similar statistical performance and represented observed flood river discharges, epecially for 1993 and 1995 floods. From 20-km and 0.5-km BTOP simulation, the flood discharges of the selected return period were estimated using flood frequency analysis and were comparable to the the river gauging station data at the German part of the Rhine river basin. This is an important finding that both 0.5-km and 20-km BTOP models produce similar flood peak discharges although the 0.5-km BTOP model results indicate the importance of scale in the local flood hazard assessment. In summary, we highlight that this study serves as a demonstrative example of institutional collaboration and is stepping stone for the next step implementation of the IFI Flagship Project.

Examination of Noise Management Approaches in the United States

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-12-01

each asserting a legally or socially validated position. Finally, the idea of conflicting interests can be expanded on to recognize the often...often the by- product of some individually or socially desirable activity, complete reduction of the noise is usually not an acceptable or practicable...alternative. In between the two polar extremes, complete reduction of the noise and absolutely no reduction or .restriction, lies some socially

An Insurer's Care Transition Program Emphasizes Medication Reconciliation, Reduces Readmissions And Costs.

PubMed

Polinski, Jennifer M; Moore, Janice M; Kyrychenko, Pavlo; Gagnon, Michael; Matlin, Olga S; Fredell, Joshua W; Brennan, Troyen A; Shrank, William H

2016-07-01

Adverse drug events and the challenges of clarifying and adhering to complex medication regimens are central drivers of hospital readmissions. Medication reconciliation programs can reduce the incidence of adverse drug events after discharge, but evidence regarding the impact of medication reconciliation on readmission rates and health care costs is less clear. We studied an insurer-initiated care transition program based on medication reconciliation delivered by pharmacists via home visits and telephone and explored its effects on high-risk patients. We examined whether voluntary program participation was associated with improved medication use, reduced readmissions, and savings net of program costs. Program participants had a 50 percent reduced relative risk of readmission within thirty days of discharge and an absolute risk reduction of 11.1 percent. The program saved $2 for every $1 spent. These results represent real-world evidence that insurer-initiated, pharmacist-led care transition programs, focused on but not limited to medication reconciliation, have the potential to both improve clinical outcomes and reduce total costs of care. Project HOPE—The People-to-People Health Foundation, Inc.

Intensive systolic blood pressure control and incident chronic kidney disease in people with and without diabetes mellitus: secondary analyses of two randomised controlled trials.

PubMed

Beddhu, Srinivasan; Greene, Tom; Boucher, Robert; Cushman, William C; Wei, Guo; Stoddard, Gregory; Ix, Joachim H; Chonchol, Michel; Kramer, Holly; Cheung, Alfred K; Kimmel, Paul L; Whelton, Paul K; Chertow, Glenn M

2018-07-01

Guidelines, including the 2017 American College of Cardiology and American Heart Association blood pressure guideline, recommend tighter control of systolic blood pressure in people with type 2 diabetes. However, it is unclear whether intensive lowering of systolic blood pressure increases the incidence of chronic kidney disease in this population. We aimed to compare the effects of intensive systolic blood pressure control on incident chronic kidney disease in people with and without type 2 diabetes. The Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial (SPRINT) tested the effects of a systolic blood pressure goal of less than 120 mm Hg (intensive intervention) versus a goal of less than 140 mm Hg (standard intervention) in people without diabetes. The Action to Control Cardiovascular Risk in Diabetes (ACCORD) blood pressure trial tested a similar systolic blood pressure intervention in people with type 2 diabetes. Our study is a secondary analysis of limited access datasets from SPRINT and the ACCORD trial obtained from the National Institutes of Health. In participants without chronic kidney disease at baseline (n=4311 in the ACCORD trial; n=6715 in SPRINT), we related systolic blood pressure interventions (intensive vs standard) to incident chronic kidney disease (defined as >30% decrease in estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] to <60 mL/min per 1·73 m 2 ). These trials are registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, numbers NCT01206062 (SPRINT) and NCT00000620 (ACCORD trial). The average difference in systolic blood pressure between intensive and standard interventions was 13·9 mm Hg (95% CI 13·4-14·4) in the ACCORD trial and 15·2 mm Hg (14·8-15·6) in SPRINT. At 3 years, the cumulative incidence of chronic kidney disease in the ACCORD trial was 10·0% (95% CI 8·8-11·4) with the intensive intervention and 4·1% (3·3-5·1) with the standard intervention (absolute risk difference 5·9%, 95% CI 4·3-7·5). Corresponding values in SPRINT were 3·5% (95% CI 2·9-4·2) and 1·0% (0·7-1·4; absolute risk difference 2·5%, 95% CI 1·8-3·2). The absolute risk difference was significantly higher in the ACCORD trial than in SPRINT (p=0·0001 for interaction). Intensive lowering of systolic blood pressure increased the risk of incident chronic kidney disease in people with and without type 2 diabetes. However, the absolute risk of incident chronic kidney disease was higher in people with type 2 diabetes. Our findings suggest the need for vigilance in monitoring kidney function during intensive antihypertensive drug treatment, particularly in adults with diabetes. Long-term studies are needed to understand the clinical implications of antihypertensive treatment-related reductions in eGFR. National Institutes of Health. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Should risk of bone fragility restrict weight control for other health reasons in postmenopausal women?--A ten year prospective study.

PubMed

Sirola, Joonas; Rikkonen, Toni; Tuppurainen, Marjo; Honkanen, Risto; Kröger, Heikki

2012-02-01

The aim of the present study was to investigate the health risks of excess body weight in the light of its protective effects on bone fragility. Femoral neck and lumbar spine dual X-ray absorptiometry was performed for 1970 Finnish women with a mean baseline age of 58.8 years (range 53.1-65.7 years) in 1994 and 2004. Women were categorized according to baseline BMI into normal <25 kg/m2, overweight 25-29.9 kg/m(2) and obese ≥30 kg/m(2). Weight change (kg) was categorized into tertiles. Co-morbidities, not allowed to be present at baseline, was based on self-reports. Osteoporosis was defined as femoral neck or spinal (L2-L4) T-score <-2.5 SD at 10-year follow-up or <-2.0 SD+low trauma energy follow-up fracture. Uni- and multivariate logistic regression models were used to estimate the 10-year risk of incident health disorders. Adjustment for age, number of diseases, alcohol intake and smoking was used in the multivariate models. Obesity (Ob) and overweight (Ow) were related with higher 10-year risk of hypertension (OR=2.6 (Ob)/OR=1.7 (Ow), p<0.001), coronary artery disease (OR=1.6, p<0.05/OR=1.2, p=NS), diabetes (OR=11.7/OR=5.3, p<0.001), osteoarthritis (OR=1.4, p<0.05/OR=1.1, p=NS), chronic back pain (OR=1.6, p=0.007/OR=1.2, p=NS) and poor self-rated health (OR=2.4, p<0.05/OR=1.5, p=NS) and lower risk of osteoporosis (OR=0.13/OR=0.28, p<0.001). Weight change of less than +1 kg was associated 1.8 and 2.6 times lower 10-year risk of having hypertension and breast cancer than weight change over 6.2 kg. Among obese women the absolute risk increase of hypertension was 17%, of diabetes 12%, and absolute risk reduction of osteoporosis 14% in comparison to BMI <25 kg/m(2). Health related risks of high BMI outweigh its protective effects on bone. Weight gain increases the risk hypertension and breast cancer. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Economic Burden of Atopic Dermatitis in High-Risk Infants Receiving Cow's Milk or Partially Hydrolyzed 100% Whey-Based Formula.

PubMed

Bhanegaonkar, Abhijeet; Horodniceanu, Erica G; Ji, Xiang; Detzel, Patrick; Boguniewicz, Mark; Chamlin, Sarah; Lake, Alan; Czerkies, Laura A; Botteman, Marc F; Saavedra, José M

2015-05-01

To estimate the health and economic impact of feeding partially hydrolyzed formula-whey (PHF-W) instead of standard cow's milk formula (CMF) for the first 4 months of life among US infants at high risk for developing atopic dermatitis (AD). A Markov model was developed integrating published data, a survey of US pediatricians, costing sources and market data, and expert opinion. Key modeled outcomes included reduction in AD risk, time spent post AD diagnosis, days without AD flare, and AD-related costs. Costs and clinical consequences were discounted at 3% annually. An estimated absolute 14-percentage point reduction in AD risk was calculated with the use of PHF-W compared with CMF (95% CI for difference, 3%-22%). Relative to CMF, PHF-W decreased the time spent post-AD diagnosis by 8.3 months (95% CI, 2.78-13.31) per child and increased days without AD flare by 39 days (95% CI, 13-63) per child. The AD-related, 6-year total cost estimate was $495 less (95% CI, -$813 to -$157) per child with PHF-W ($724 per child; 95% CI, $385-$1269) compared with CMF ($1219 per child; 95% CI, $741-$1824). Utilization of PHF-W in place of CMF as the initial infant formula administered to high-risk US infants not exclusively breastfed during the first 4 months of life may reduce the incidence and economic burden of AD. Broad implementation of this strategy could result in a minimum savings of $355 million per year to society. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Structured hypocaloric diet is more effective than behavioral therapy in reducing metabolic syndrome in Mexican postmenopausal women: a randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Perichart-Perera, Otilia; Balas-Nakash, Margie; Muñoz-Manrique, Cinthya; Legorreta-Legorreta, Jennifer; Rodríguez-Cano, Ameyalli; Mier-Cabrera, Jennifer; Aguilera-Pérez, Jesús Rafael

2014-07-01

This study aims to compare the effects of a lifestyle intervention using a behavioral therapy (BT) approach with the effects of a cardioprotective structured hypocaloric diet on metabolic syndrome in Mexican postmenopausal women. This study is a randomized clinical trial (2006-2009) of Mexican postmenopausal women with metabolic syndrome (Adult Treatment Panel III criteria) who were recruited from the Postmenopause Clinic of the National Institute of Perinatology in Mexico City. Women were assigned to one of two groups--group 1 (structured hypocaloric diet; n = 63): energy restriction (-300 to -500 kcal/d) emphasizing cardioprotective dietary changes; and group 2 (BT; n = 55): goal setting, problem-solving, and stimulus control to achieve cardioprotective dietary and lifestyle recommendations. Metabolic syndrome prevalence, as well as weight, waist circumference, fat mass, and fasting biochemical markers (glucose and lipid profile), were measured at baseline and at 2, 4, and 6 months after the intervention. Metabolic syndrome risk (relative risk and absolute risk reduction), mean differences between groups, and logistic regression were evaluated using Statistical Package for the Social Sciences software, version 17.0. A total of 118 women were studied (mean [SD] age, 53.81 [6.43] y). No baseline differences were observed between groups. At the end of the study, a higher reduction in metabolic syndrome prevalence was observed in group 1 (-38.1%) compared with group 2 (-12.7%; relative risk, 0.237; 95% CI, 0.092-0.608; P = 0.003). The effect was maintained even when adjusted by age, hormone therapy and antihypertensive drug use. A cardioprotective structured hypocaloric diet is more effective than the BT approach in reducing metabolic syndrome after 6 months of intervention. Both strategies have positive effects on different individual cardiovascular risk factors.

The Financial Impact of the ‘Zero-Markup Policy for Essential Drugs’ on Patients in County Hospitals in Western Rural China

PubMed Central

Zhou, Zhongliang; Su, Yanfang; Campbell, Benjamin; Zhou, Zhiying; Gao, Jianmin; Yu, Qiang; Chen, Jiuhao; Pan, Yishan

2015-01-01

Objective With a quasi-experimental design, this study aims to assess whether the Zero-markup Policy for Essential Drugs (ZPED) reduces the medical expense for patients at county hospitals, the major healthcare provider in rural China. Methods Data from Ningshan county hospital and Zhenping county hospital, China, include 2014 outpatient records and 9239 inpatient records. Quantitative methods are employed to evaluate ZPED. Both hospital-data difference-in-differences and individual-data regressions are applied to analyze the data from inpatient and outpatient departments. Results In absolute terms, the total expense per visit reduced by 19.02 CNY (3.12 USD) for outpatient services and 399.6 CNY (65.60 USD) for inpatient services. In relative terms, the expense per visit was reduced by 11% for both outpatient and inpatient services. Due to the reduction of inpatient expense, the estimated reduction of outpatient visits is 2% among the general population and 3.39% among users of outpatient services. The drug expense per visit dropped by 27.20 CNY (4.47 USD) for outpatient services and 278.7 CNY (45.75 USD) for inpatient services. The proportion of drug expense out of total expense per visit dropped by 11.73 percentage points in outpatient visits and by 3.92 percentage points in inpatient visits. Conclusion Implementation of ZPED is a benefit for patients in both absolute and relative terms. The absolute monetary reduction of the per-visit inpatient expense is 20 times of that in outpatient care. According to cross-price elasticity, the substitution between inpatient and outpatient due to the change in inpatient price is small. Furthermore, given that the relative reductions are the same for outpatient and inpatient visits, according to relative thinking theory, the incentive to utilize outpatient or inpatient care attributed to ZPED is equivalent, regardless of the 20-times price difference in absolute terms. PMID:25790443

The financial impact of the 'zero-markup policy for essential drugs' on patients in county hospitals in western rural China.

PubMed

Zhou, Zhongliang; Su, Yanfang; Campbell, Benjamin; Zhou, Zhiying; Gao, Jianmin; Yu, Qiang; Chen, Jiuhao; Pan, Yishan

2015-01-01

With a quasi-experimental design, this study aims to assess whether the Zero-markup Policy for Essential Drugs (ZPED) reduces the medical expense for patients at county hospitals, the major healthcare provider in rural China. Data from Ningshan county hospital and Zhenping county hospital, China, include 2014 outpatient records and 9239 inpatient records. Quantitative methods are employed to evaluate ZPED. Both hospital-data difference-in-differences and individual-data regressions are applied to analyze the data from inpatient and outpatient departments. In absolute terms, the total expense per visit reduced by 19.02 CNY (3.12 USD) for outpatient services and 399.6 CNY (65.60 USD) for inpatient services. In relative terms, the expense per visit was reduced by 11% for both outpatient and inpatient services. Due to the reduction of inpatient expense, the estimated reduction of outpatient visits is 2% among the general population and 3.39% among users of outpatient services. The drug expense per visit dropped by 27.20 CNY (4.47 USD) for outpatient services and 278.7 CNY (45.75 USD) for inpatient services. The proportion of drug expense out of total expense per visit dropped by 11.73 percentage points in outpatient visits and by 3.92 percentage points in inpatient visits. Implementation of ZPED is a benefit for patients in both absolute and relative terms. The absolute monetary reduction of the per-visit inpatient expense is 20 times of that in outpatient care. According to cross-price elasticity, the substitution between inpatient and outpatient due to the change in inpatient price is small. Furthermore, given that the relative reductions are the same for outpatient and inpatient visits, according to relative thinking theory, the incentive to utilize outpatient or inpatient care attributed to ZPED is equivalent, regardless of the 20-times price difference in absolute terms.

Mind and body therapy for fibromyalgia.

PubMed

Theadom, Alice; Cropley, Mark; Smith, Helen E; Feigin, Valery L; McPherson, Kathryn

2015-04-09

Mind-body interventions are based on the holistic principle that mind, body and behaviour are all interconnected. Mind-body interventions incorporate strategies that are thought to improve psychological and physical well-being, aim to allow patients to take an active role in their treatment, and promote people's ability to cope. Mind-body interventions are widely used by people with fibromyalgia to help manage their symptoms and improve well-being. Examples of mind-body therapies include psychological therapies, biofeedback, mindfulness, movement therapies and relaxation strategies. To review the benefits and harms of mind-body therapies in comparison to standard care and attention placebo control groups for adults with fibromyalgia, post-intervention and at three and six month follow-up. Electronic searches of the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), MEDLINE (Ovid), EMBASE (Ovid), PsycINFO (Ovid), AMED (EBSCO) and CINAHL (Ovid) were conducted up to 30 October 2013. Searches of reference lists were conducted and authors in the field were contacted to identify additional relevant articles. All relevant randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of mind-body interventions for adults with fibromyalgia were included. Two authors independently selected studies, extracted the data and assessed trials for low, unclear or high risk of bias. Any discrepancy was resolved through discussion and consensus. Continuous outcomes were analysed using mean difference (MD) where the same outcome measure and scoring method was used and standardised mean difference (SMD) where different outcome measures were used. For binary data standard estimation of the risk ratio (RR) and its 95% confidence interval (CI) was used. Seventy-four papers describing 61 trials were identified, with 4234 predominantly female participants. The nature of fibromyalgia varied from mild to severe across the study populations. Twenty-six studies were classified as having a low risk of bias for all domains assessed. The findings of mind-body therapies compared with usual care were prioritised.There is low quality evidence that in comparison to usual care controls psychological therapies have favourable effects on physical functioning (SMD -0.4, 95% CI -0.6 to -0.3, -7.5% absolute change, 2 point shift on a 0 to 100 scale), pain (SMD -0.3, 95% CI -0.5 to -0.2, -3.5% absolute change, 2 point shift on a 0 to 100 scale) and mood (SMD -0.5, 95% CI -0.6 to -0.3, -4.8% absolute change, 3 point shift on a 20 to 80 scale). There is very low quality evidence of more withdrawals in the psychological therapy group in comparison to usual care controls (RR 1.38, 95% CI 1.12 to 1.69, 6% absolute risk difference). There is lack of evidence of a difference between the number of adverse events in the psychological therapy and control groups (RR 0.38, 95% CI 0.06 to 2.50, 4% absolute risk difference).There was very low quality evidence that biofeedback in comparison to usual care controls had an effect on physical functioning (SMD -0.1, 95% CI -0.4 to 0.3, -1.2% absolute change, 1 point shift on a 0 to 100 scale), pain (SMD -2.6, 95% CI -91.3 to 86.1, -2.6% absolute change) and mood (SMD 0.1, 95% CI -0.3 to 0.5, 1.9% absolute change, less than 1 point shift on a 0 to 90 scale) post-intervention. In view of the quality of evidence we cannot be certain that biofeedback has a little or no effect on these outcomes. There was very low quality evidence that biofeedback led to more withdrawals from the study (RR 4.08, 95% CI 1.43 to 11.62, 20% absolute risk difference). No adverse events were reported.There was no advantage observed for mindfulness in comparison to usual care for physical functioning (SMD -0.3, 95% CI -0.6 to 0.1, -4.8% absolute change, 4 point shift on a scale 0 to 100), pain (SMD -0.1, CI -0.4 to 0.3, -1.3% absolute change, less than 1 point shift on a 0 to 10 scale), mood (SMD -0.2, 95% CI -0.5 to 0.0, -3.7% absolute change, 2 point shift on a 20 to 80 scale) or withdrawals (RR 1.07, 95% CI 0.67 to 1.72, 2% absolute risk difference) between the two groups post-intervention. However, the quality of the evidence was very low for pain and moderate for mood and number of withdrawals. No studies reported any adverse events.Very low quality evidence revealed that movement therapies in comparison to usual care controls improved pain (MD -2.3, CI -4.2 to -0.4, -23% absolute change) and mood (MD -9.8, 95% CI -18.5 to -1.2, -16.4% absolute change) post-intervention. There was no advantage for physical functioning (SMD -0.2, 95% CI -0.5 to 0.2, -3.4% absolute change, 2 point shift on a 0 to 100 scale), participant withdrawals (RR 1.95, 95% CI 1.13 to 3.38, 11% absolute difference) or adverse events (RR 4.62, 95% CI 0.23 to 93.92, 4% absolute risk difference) between the two groups, however rare adverse events may include worsening of pain.Low quality evidence revealed that relaxation based therapies in comparison to usual care controls showed an advantage for physical functioning (MD -8.3, 95% CI -10.1 to -6.5, -10.4% absolute change) and pain (SMD -1.0, 95% CI -1.6 to -0.5, -3.5% absolute change, 2 point shift on a 0 to 78 scale) but not for mood (SMD -4.4, CI -14.5 to 5.6, -7.4% absolute change) post-intervention. There was no difference between the groups for number of withdrawals (RR 4.40, 95% CI 0.59 to 33.07, 31% absolute risk difference) and no adverse events were reported. Psychological interventions therapies may be effective in improving physical functioning, pain and low mood for adults with fibromyalgia in comparison to usual care controls but the quality of the evidence is low. Further research on the outcomes of therapies is needed to determine if positive effects identified post-intervention are sustained. The effectiveness of biofeedback, mindfulness, movement therapies and relaxation based therapies remains unclear as the quality of the evidence was very low or low. The small number of trials and inconsistency in the use of outcome measures across the trials restricted the analysis.

Cancer incidence and mortality risks in a large US Barrett's oesophagus cohort.

PubMed

Cook, Michael B; Coburn, Sally B; Lam, Jameson R; Taylor, Philip R; Schneider, Jennifer L; Corley, Douglas A

2018-03-01

Barrett's oesophagus (BE) increases the risk of oesophageal adenocarcinoma by 10-55 times that of the general population, but no community-based cancer-specific incidence and cause-specific mortality risk estimates exist for large cohorts in the USA. Within Kaiser Permanente Northern California (KPNC), we identified patients with BE diagnosed during 1995-2012. KPNC cancer registry and mortality files were used to estimate standardised incidence ratios (SIR), standardised mortality ratios (SMR) and excess absolute risks. There were 8929 patients with BE providing 50 147 person-years of follow-up. Compared with the greater KPNC population, patients with BE had increased risks of any cancer (SIR=1.40, 95% CI 1.31 to 1.49), which slightly decreased after excluding oesophageal cancer. Oesophageal adenocarcinoma risk was increased 24 times, which translated into an excess absolute risk of 24 cases per 10 000 person-years. Although oesophageal adenocarcinoma risk decreased with time since BE diagnosis, oesophageal cancer mortality did not, indicating that the true risk is stable and persistent with time. Relative risks of cardia and stomach cancers were increased, but excess absolute risks were modest. Risks of colorectal, lung and prostate cancers were unaltered. All-cause mortality was slightly increased after excluding oesophageal cancer (SMR=1.24, 95% CI 1.18 to 1.31), but time-stratified analyses indicated that this was likely attributable to diagnostic bias. Cause-specific SMRs were elevated for ischaemic heart disease (SMR=1.39, 95% CI 1.18 to 1.63), respiratory system diseases (SMR=1.51, 95% CI 1.29 to 1.75) and digestive system diseases (SMR=2.20 95% CI 1.75 to 2.75). Patients with BE had a persistent excess risk of oesophageal adenocarcinoma over time, although their absolute excess risks for this cancer, any cancer and overall mortality were modest. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Risk aversion affects economic values of blue fox breeding scheme.

PubMed

Peura, J; Kempe, R; Strandén, I; Rydhmer, L

2016-12-01

The profit and production of an average Finnish blue fox farm was simulated using a deterministic bio-economic farm model. Risk was included using Arrow-Prat absolute risk aversion coefficient and profit variance. Risk-rated economic values were calculated for pregnancy rate, litter loss, litter size, pelt size, pelt quality, pelt colour clarity, feed efficiency and eye infection. With high absolute risk aversion, economic values were lower than with low absolute risk aversion. Economic values were highest for litter loss (18.16 and 26.42 EUR), litter size (13.27 and 19.40 EUR), pregnancy (11.99 and 18.39 EUR) and eye infection (12.39 and 13.81 EUR). Sensitivity analysis showed that selection pressure for improved eye health depended strongly on proportion of culled animals among infected animals and much less on the proportion of infected animals. The economic value of feed efficiency was lower than expected (6.06 and 8.03 EUR). However, it was almost the same magnitude as pelt quality (7.30 and 7.30 EUR) and higher than the economic value of pelt size (3.37 and 5.26 EUR). Risk factors should be considered in blue fox breeding scheme because they change the relative importance of traits. © 2016 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

17 CFR 402.2a - Appendix A-Calculation of market risk haircut for purposes of § 402.2(g)(2).

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... larger in absolute value of the two residual position interim haircuts being netted, and (ii) zero, in... category of the larger (in absolute value) of the two interim haircuts that were netted, and (2) a zero in... the larger (in absolute value) of the two interim haircuts that were netted, and (2) a zero in the...

17 CFR 402.2a - Appendix A-Calculation of market risk haircut for purposes of § 402.2(g)(2).

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... larger in absolute value of the two residual position interim haircuts being netted, and (ii) zero, in... category of the larger (in absolute value) of the two interim haircuts that were netted, and (2) a zero in... the larger (in absolute value) of the two interim haircuts that were netted, and (2) a zero in the...

17 CFR 402.2a - Appendix A-Calculation of market risk haircut for purposes of § 402.2(g)(2).

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... larger in absolute value of the two residual position interim haircuts being netted, and (ii) zero, in... category of the larger (in absolute value) of the two interim haircuts that were netted, and (2) a zero in... the larger (in absolute value) of the two interim haircuts that were netted, and (2) a zero in the...

17 CFR 402.2a - Appendix A-Calculation of market risk haircut for purposes of § 402.2(g)(2).

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... larger in absolute value of the two residual position interim haircuts being netted, and (ii) zero, in... category of the larger (in absolute value) of the two interim haircuts that were netted, and (2) a zero in... the larger (in absolute value) of the two interim haircuts that were netted, and (2) a zero in the...

17 CFR 402.2a - Appendix A-Calculation of market risk haircut for purposes of § 402.2(g)(2).

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... larger in absolute value of the two residual position interim haircuts being netted, and (ii) zero, in... category of the larger (in absolute value) of the two interim haircuts that were netted, and (2) a zero in... the larger (in absolute value) of the two interim haircuts that were netted, and (2) a zero in the...

Effects of Screening and Systemic Adjuvant Therapy on ER-Specific US Breast Cancer Mortality

PubMed Central

Munoz, Diego; Near, Aimee M.; van Ravesteyn, Nicolien T.; Lee, Sandra J.; Schechter, Clyde B.; Alagoz, Oguzhan; Berry, Donald A.; Burnside, Elizabeth S.; Chang, Yaojen; Chisholm, Gary; de Koning, Harry J.; Ali Ergun, Mehmet; Heijnsdijk, Eveline A. M.; Huang, Hui; Stout, Natasha K.; Sprague, Brian L.; Trentham-Dietz, Amy; Mandelblatt, Jeanne S.

2014-01-01

Background Molecular characterization of breast cancer allows subtype-directed interventions. Estrogen receptor (ER) is the longest-established molecular marker. Methods We used six established population models with ER-specific input parameters on age-specific incidence, disease natural history, mammography characteristics, and treatment effects to quantify the impact of screening and adjuvant therapy on age-adjusted US breast cancer mortality by ER status from 1975 to 2000. Outcomes included stage-shifts and absolute and relative reductions in mortality; sensitivity analyses evaluated the impact of varying screening frequency or accuracy. Results In the year 2000, actual screening and adjuvant treatment reduced breast cancer mortality by a median of 17 per 100000 women (model range = 13–21) and 5 per 100000 women (model range = 3–6) for ER-positive and ER-negative cases, respectively, relative to no screening and no adjuvant treatment. For ER-positive cases, adjuvant treatment made a higher relative contribution to breast cancer mortality reduction than screening, whereas for ER-negative cases the relative contributions were similar for screening and adjuvant treatment. ER-negative cases were less likely to be screen-detected than ER-positive cases (35.1% vs 51.2%), but when screen-detected yielded a greater survival gain (five-year breast cancer survival = 35.6% vs 30.7%). Screening biennially would have captured a lower proportion of mortality reduction than annual screening for ER-negative vs ER-positive cases (model range = 80.2%–87.8% vs 85.7%–96.5%). Conclusion As advances in risk assessment facilitate identification of women with increased risk of ER-negative breast cancer, additional mortality reductions could be realized through more frequent targeted screening, provided these benefits are balanced against screening harms. PMID:25255803

Reducing Adverse Polypharmacy in Patients With Borderline Personality Disorder: An Empirical Case Study

PubMed Central

Oldham, John M.; Gonzalez, Sylvia; Fowler, J. Christopher

2015-01-01

Objective: Polypharmacy is common and especially challenging in the context of borderline personality disorder in light of impulsivity and self-harm associated with the disorder, risk of adverse drug-drug interactions, and financial burden. Reduction in polypharmacy could be conceptualized as a high priority in the treatment of borderline personality disorder. This case aims to demonstrate that potential. Method: This case report presents outcomes data for an individual with borderline personality disorder during the course of an extended psychiatric hospitalization. Symptomatic change is based on the Patient Health Questionnaire Somatic, Anxiety, and Depression Symptoms scales and World Health Organization 5-Item Well-Being Index. Change in polypharmacy is presented both in terms of absolute number and complexity of the medication regimen. Clinical outcomes data are provided at 2, 12, and 24 weeks postdischarge. Results: During a 56-day hospitalization, the patient demonstrated clinical improvement across clinical domains—all occurred within the context of reduced number (43%) and complexity (40%) of her medication regimen. Symptomatic improvement was sustained up to 6 months postdischarge. Conclusions: Despite good intentions, polypharmacy can be associated with iatrogenic harm and contribute to functional impairment, especially in the context of borderline personality disorder, in which symptomatic fluctuations are part of the illness itself. A reduction in the patient’s high-risk polypharmacy during treatment represents a noteworthy treatment outcome in and of itself. Additional measures of medication risk and liability have the potential to become markers of clinical effectiveness. PMID:26693036

[Cost-effectiveness of drotrecogin alpha [activated] in the treatment of severe sepsis in Spain].

PubMed

Sacristán, José A; Prieto, Luis; Huete, Teresa; Artigas, Antonio; Badia, Xavier; Chinn, Christopher; Hudson, Peter

2004-01-01

The PROWESS clinical trial has shown that treatment with drotrecogin alpha (activated) in patients with severe sepsis is associated with a reduction in the absolute risk of death compared with standard treatment. The aim of the present study was to assess the cost-effectiveness of drotrecogin alpha (activated) versus that of standard care in the treatment of severe sepsis in Spain. A decision analysis model was drawn up to compare costs to hospital discharge and the long-term efficacy of drotrecogin alpha (activated) versus those of standard care in the treatment of severe sepsis in Spain from the perspective of the health care payer. Most of the information for creating the model was obtained from the PROWESS clinical trial. A two-fold baseline analysis was performed: a) for all patients included in the PROWESS clinical trial and b) for the patients with two or more organ failures. The major variables for clinical assessment were the reduction in mortality and years of life gained (YLG). Cost-effectiveness was expressed as cost per YLG. A sensitivity analysis was applied using 3% and 5% discount rates for YLG and by modifying the patterns of health care, intensive care unit costs, and life expectancy by initial co-morbidity and therapeutic efficacy of drotrecogin alpha (activated). Treatment with drotrecogin alfa (activated) was associated with a 6.0% drop in the absolute risk of death (p = 0.005) when all of the patients from the PROWESS trial were included and with a 7.3% reduction (p = 0.005) when the analysis was restricted to patients with two or more organ failures. The cost-effectiveness of drotrecogin alfa (activated) was 13,550 euros per YLG with respect to standard care after analysing all of the patients and 9,800 euros per YLG in the group of patients with two or more organ failures. In the sensitivity analysis, the results ranged from 7,322 to 16,493 euros per YLG. The factors with the greatest impact on the results were the change in the efficacy of drotrecogin alfa (activated), adjustment of survival by initial co-morbidity and the application of discount rates to YLG. Treatment with drotrecogin alfa (activated) presents a favorable cost-effectiveness ratio compared with other health care interventions commonly used in Spain.

Risks of Hemolysis in Glucose-6-Phosphate Dehydrogenase Deficient Infants Exposed to Chlorproguanil-Dapsone, Mefloquine and Sulfadoxine-Pyrimethamine as Part of Intermittent Presumptive Treatment of Malaria in Infants.

PubMed

Poirot, Eugenie; Vittinghoff, Eric; Ishengoma, Deus; Alifrangis, Michael; Carneiro, Ilona; Hashim, Ramadhan; Baraka, Vito; Mosha, Jacklin; Gesase, Samwel; Chandramohan, Daniel; Gosling, Roland

2015-01-01

Chlorproguanil-dapsone (CD) has been linked to hemolysis in symptomatic glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase deficient (G6PDd) children. Few studies have explored the effects of G6PD status on hemolysis in children treated with Intermittent Preventive Treatment in infants (IPTi) antimalarial regimens. We sought to examine the joint effects of G6PD status and IPTi antimalarial treatment on incidence of hemolysis in asymptomatic children treated with CD, sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP), and mefloquine (MQ). A secondary analysis of data from a double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of IPTi was conducted. Hemoglobin (Hb) measurements were made at IPTi doses, regular follow-up and emergency visits. G6PD genotype was determined at 9 months looking for SNPs for the A- genotype at coding position 202. Multivariable linear and logistic regression models were used to examine hemolysis among children with valid G6PD genotyping results. Hemolysis was defined as the absolute change in Hb or as any post-dose Hb <8 g/dL. These outcomes were assessed using either a single follow-up Hb on day 7 after an IPTi dose or Hb obtained 1 to 14 or 28 days after each IPTi dose. Relative to placebo, CD reduced Hb by approximately 0.5 g/dL at day 7 and within 14 days of an IPTi dose, and by 0.2 g/dL within 28 days. Adjusted declines in the CD group were larger than in the MQ and SP groups. At day 7, homo-/hemizygous genotype was associated with higher odds of Hb <8 g/dL (adjusted odds ratio = 6.7, 95% CI 1.7 to 27.0) and greater absolute reductions in Hb (-0.6 g/dL, 95% CI -1.1 to 0.003). There was no evidence to suggest increased reductions in Hb among homo-/hemizygous children treated with CD compared to placebo, SP or MQ. While treatment with CD demonstrated greater reductions in Hb at 7 and 14 days after an IPTi dose compared to both SP and MQ, there was no evidence that G6PD deficiency exacerbated the adverse effects of CD, despite evidence for higher hemolysis risk among G6PDd infants.

One idea of portfolio risk control for absolute return strategy risk adjustments by signals from correlation behavior

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nishiyama, N.

2001-12-01

Absolute return strategy provided from fund of funds (FOFs) investment schemes is the focus in Japanese Financial Community. FOFs investment mainly consists of hedge fund investment and it has two major characteristics which are low correlation against benchmark index and little impact from various external changes in the environment given maximizing return. According to the historical track record of survival hedge funds in this business world, they maintain a stable high return and low risk. However, one must keep in mind that low risk would not be equal to risk free. The failure of Long-term capital management (LTCM) that took place in the summer of 1998 was a symbolized phenomenon. The summer of 1998 exhibited a certain limitation of traditional value at risk (VaR) and some possibility that traditional VaR could be ineffectual to the nonlinear type of fluctuation in the market. In this paper, I try to bring self-organized criticality (SOC) into portfolio risk control. SOC would be well known as a model of decay in the natural world. I analyzed nonlinear type of fluctuation in the market as SOC and applied SOC to capture complicated market movement using threshold point of SOC and risk adjustments by scenario correlation as implicit signals. Threshold becomes the control parameter of risk exposure to set downside floor and forecast extreme nonlinear type of fluctuation under a certain probability. Simulation results would show synergy effect of portfolio risk control between SOC and absolute return strategy.

Calcium supplementation during pregnancy for preventing hypertensive disorders and related problems.

PubMed

Hofmeyr, G Justus; Lawrie, Theresa A; Atallah, Alvaro N; Duley, Lelia; Torloni, Maria R

2014-06-24

Pre-eclampsia and eclampsia are common causes of serious morbidity and death. Calcium supplementation may reduce the risk of pre-eclampsia, and may help to prevent preterm birth. To assess the effects of calcium supplementation during pregnancy on hypertensive disorders of pregnancy and related maternal and child outcomes. We searched the Cochrane Pregnancy and Childbirth Group's Trials Register (28 March 2013) and contacted study authors for more data where possible. We updated the search in May 2014 and added the results to the 'Awaiting Classification' section of the review. Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) comparing high-dose (at least 1 g daily of calcium) or low-dose calcium supplementation during pregnancy with placebo or no calcium. We assessed eligibility and trial quality, extracted and double-entered data. High-dose calcium supplementation (≥1 g/day)We included 14 studies in the review, however one study contributed no data. We included 13 high-quality studies in our meta-analyses (15,730 women). The average risk of high blood pressure (BP) was reduced with calcium supplementation compared with placebo (12 trials, 15,470 women: risk ratio (RR) 0.65, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.53 to 0.81; I² = 74%). There was also a significant reduction in the risk of pre-eclampsia associated with calcium supplementation (13 trials, 15,730 women: RR 0.45, 95% CI 0.31 to 0.65; I² = 70%). The effect was greatest for women with low calcium diets (eight trials, 10,678 women: average RR 0.36, 95% CI 0.20 to 0.65; I² = 76%) and women at high risk of pre-eclampsia (five trials, 587 women: average RR 0.22, 95% CI 0.12 to 0.42; I² = 0%). These data should be interpreted with caution because of the possibility of small-study effect or publication bias.The composite outcome maternal death or serious morbidity was reduced (four trials, 9732 women; RR 0.80, 95% CI 0.65 to 0.97; I² = 0%). Maternal deaths were not significantly different (one trial of 8312 women: calcium group one death versus placebo group six deaths). There was an anomalous increase in the risk of HELLP (haemolysis, elevated liver enzymes and low platelets) syndrome (two trials, 12,901 women: RR 2.67, 95% CI 1.05 to 6.82; I² = 0%) in the calcium group, however, the absolute number of events was low (16 versus six).The average risk of preterm birth was reduced in the calcium group (11 trials, 15,275 women: RR 0.76, 95% CI 0.60 to 0.97; I² = 60%) and amongst women at high risk of developing pre-eclampsia (four trials, 568 women: average RR 0.45, 95% CI 0.24 to 0.83; I² = 60%), but no significant reduction in neonatal high care admission. There was no overall effect on the risk of stillbirth or infant death before discharge from hospital (11 trials 15,665 babies: RR 0.90, 95% CI 0.74 to 1.09; I² = 0%).One study showed a reduction in childhood systolic BP greater than 95th percentile among children exposed to calcium supplementation in utero (514 children: RR 0.59, 95% CI 0.39 to 0.91). In a subset of these children, dental caries at 12 years old was also reduced (195 children, RR 0.73, 95% CI 0.62 to 0.87). Low-dose calcium supplementation (< 1 g/day)We included 10 trials (2234 women) that evaluated low-dose supplementation with calcium alone (4) or in association with vitamin D (3), linoleic acid (2), or antioxidants (1). Most studies recruited women at high risk for pre-eclampsia, and were at high risk of bias, thus the results should be interpreted with caution. Supplementation with low doses of calcium significantly reduced the risk of pre-eclampsia (RR 0.38, 95% CI 0.28 to 0.52; I² = 0%). There was also a reduction in hypertension, low birthweight and neonatal intensive care unit admission. Calcium supplementation (≥ 1 g/day) is associated with a significant reduction in the risk of pre-eclampsia, particularly for women with low calcium diets. The treatment effect may be overestimated due to small-study effects or publication bias. It also reduces preterm birth and the occurrence of the composite outcome 'maternal death or serious morbidity'. We considered these benefits to outweigh the increased risk of HELLP syndrome, which was small in absolute numbers. The World Health Organization recommends calcium 1.5 g to 2 g daily for pregnant women with low dietary calcium intake.The limited evidence on low-dose calcium supplementation suggests a reduction in pre-eclampsia, but needs to be confirmed by larger, high-quality trials. Pending such results, in settings of low dietary calcium where high-dose supplementation is not feasible, the option of lower-dose supplements (500 to 600 mg/day) might be considered in preference to no supplementation.

Safety of cerebral angiography and neuroendovascular therapy in patients with chronic kidney disease.

PubMed

Kim, Jae; Male, Shailesh; Jagadeesan, Bharathi D; Streib, Christopher; Tummala, Ramachandra P

2018-05-01

Contrast-induced nephropathy is a common clinical concern in patients undergoing neuroendovascular procedures, especially in those with pre-existent kidney disease. We aimed to define the incidence of contrast-induced nephropathy in these high-risk patients in our practice. We analyzed data retrospectively from patients undergoing neuroendovascular procedures at two academic medical centers over a 4-year period. Contrast-induced nephropathy was determined by an absolute increase in serum creatinine of 0.5 mg/dL or a rise from its baseline value by ≥ 25%, at 48-72 h after exposure to contrast agent after excluding other causes of renal impairment. High-risk patients were identified as those with pre-procedural estimated glomerular filtration rate < 60 mL/min irrespective of creatinine level, corresponding to stages 3-5 of chronic kidney disease. One hundred eighty-five high-risk patients undergoing conventional cerebral angiography and neuroendovascular interventions were identified. Only 1 out of 184 (0.54%) high-risk patients developed contrast-induced nephropathy. That one patient had stage 5 chronic kidney disease and multiple other risk factors. We have observed a very low rate of renal injury in patients with chronic kidney disease, traditionally considered high risk for neuroendovascular procedures. Multiple factors may be responsible in the risk reduction of contrast-induced nephropathy in this patient population.

Projected cancer risks potentially related to past, current, and future practices in paediatric CT in the United Kingdom, 1990–2020

PubMed Central

Journy, Neige M Y; Lee, Choonsik; Harbron, Richard W; McHugh, Kieran; Pearce, Mark S; Berrington de González, Amy

2017-01-01

Background: To project risks of developing cancer and the number of cases potentially induced by past, current, and future computed tomography (CT) scans performed in the United Kingdom in individuals aged <20 years. Methods: Organ doses were estimated from surveys of individual scan parameters and CT protocols used in the United Kingdom. Frequencies of scans were estimated from the NHS Diagnostic Imaging Dataset. Excess lifetime risks (ELRs) of radiation-related cancer were calculated as cumulative lifetime risks, accounting for survival probabilities, using the RadRAT risk assessment tool. Results: In 2000–2008, ELRs ranged from 0.3 to 1 per 1000 head scans and 1 to 5 per 1000 non-head scans. ELRs per scan were reduced by 50–70% in 2000–2008 compared with 1990–1995, subsequent to dose reduction over time. The 130 750 scans performed in 2015 in the United Kingdom were projected to induce 64 (90% uncertainty interval (UI): 38–113) future cancers. Current practices would lead to about 300 (90% UI: 230–680) future cancers induced by scans performed in 2016–2020. Conclusions: Absolute excess risks from single exposures would be low compared with background risks, but even small increases in annual CT rates over the next years would substantially increase the number of potential subsequent cancers. PMID:27824812

[Clinical research XXIII. From clinical judgment to meta-analyses].

PubMed

Rivas-Ruiz, Rodolfo; Castelán-Martínez, Osvaldo D; Pérez-Rodríguez, Marcela; Palacios-Cruz, Lino; Noyola-Castillo, Maura E; Talavera, Juan O

2014-01-01

Systematic reviews (SR) are studies made in order to ask clinical questions based on original articles. Meta-analysis (MTA) is the mathematical analysis of SR. These analyses are divided in two groups, those which evaluate the measured results of quantitative variables (for example, the body mass index -BMI-) and those which evaluate qualitative variables (for example, if a patient is alive or dead, or if he is healing or not). Quantitative variables generally use the mean difference analysis and qualitative variables can be performed using several calculations: odds ratio (OR), relative risk (RR), absolute risk reduction (ARR) and hazard ratio (HR). These analyses are represented through forest plots which allow the evaluation of each individual study, as well as the heterogeneity between studies and the overall effect of the intervention. These analyses are mainly based on Student's t test and chi-squared. To take appropriate decisions based on the MTA, it is important to understand the characteristics of statistical methods in order to avoid misinterpretations.

A case-control study to assess the impact of mammographic density on breast cancer risk in women aged 40-49 at intermediate familial risk.

PubMed

Assi, Valentina; Massat, Nathalie J; Thomas, Susan; MacKay, James; Warwick, Jane; Kataoka, Masako; Warsi, Iqbal; Brentnall, Adam; Warren, Ruth; Duffy, Stephen W

2015-05-15

Mammographic density is a strong risk factor for breast cancer, but its potential application in risk management is not clear, partly due to uncertainties about its interaction with other breast cancer risk factors. We aimed to quantify the impact of mammographic density on breast cancer risk in women aged 40-49 at intermediate familial risk of breast cancer (average lifetime risk of 23%), in particular in premenopausal women, and to investigate its relationship with other breast cancer risk factors in this population. We present the results from a case-control study nested with the FH01 cohort study of 6,710 women mostly aged 40-49 at intermediate familial risk of breast cancer. One hundred and three cases of breast cancer were age-matched to one or two controls. Density was measured by semiautomated interactive thresholding. Absolute density, but not percent density, was a significant risk factor for breast cancer in this population after adjusting for area of nondense tissue (OR per 10 cm(2) = 1.07, 95% CI 1.00-1.15, p = 0.04). The effect was stronger in premenopausal women, who made up the majority of the study population. Absolute density remained a significant predictor of breast cancer risk after adjusting for age at menarche, age at first live birth, parity, past or present hormone replacement therapy, and the Tyrer-Cuzick 10-year relative risk estimate of breast cancer. Absolute density can improve breast cancer risk stratification and delineation of high-risk groups alongside the Tyrer-Cuzick 10-year relative risk estimate. © 2014 UICC.

Impact of single annual treatment and four-monthly treatment for hookworm and Ascaris lumbricoides, and factors associated with residual infection among Kenyan school children.

PubMed

Kepha, Stella; Mwandawiro, Charles S; Anderson, Roy M; Pullan, Rachel L; Nuwaha, Fred; Cano, Jorge; Njenga, Sammy M; Odiere, Maurice R; Allen, Elizabeth; Brooker, Simon J; Nikolay, Birgit

2017-02-09

School-based deworming is widely implemented in various countries to reduce the burden of soil-transmitted helminths (STHs), however, the frequency of drug administration varies in different settings. In this study, we compared the impact of a single annual treatment and 4-monthly treatment over a follow-up among Kenyan school children, and investigated the factors associated with residual infection. We performed a secondary analysis of data from a randomized trial investigating whether deworming for STHs alters risk of acquiring malaria. Children received either a single treatment or 4-monthly albendazole treatments were followed longitudinally from February 2014 to October 2014. The relative impact of treatment and factors associated with residual infections were investigated using mixed-effects regression models. Predisposition to infection was assessed based on Spearman's rank and Kendall's Tau correlation coefficients. In the 4-monthly treatment group, the proportion of children infected with hookworm decreased from 59.9 to 5.7%, while Ascaris lumbricoides infections dropped from 55.7 to 6.2%. In the single treatment group, hookworm infections decreased over the same time period from 58.7 to 18.3% (12.6% absolute difference in reduction, 95% CI: 8.9-16.3%), and A. lumbricoides from 56.7 to 23.3% (17.1% absolute difference in reduction, 95% CI: 13.1-21.1%). There was strong evidence for predisposition to both STH types. Residual hookworm infection among children on 4-monthly treatment were associated with male sex and baseline nutritional status, whereas A. lumbricoides infection was associated with individual and school-level infection at baseline, latrine cleanliness at schools. This study found that 4-monthly treatment w more effective than single annual treatment. Repeated treatments led to dramatic reductions in the intensities of STHs, but did not completely clear infections among school children in Kenya, a presumed reflection of reinfection in a setting where there is ongoing transmission.

The effect of giving global coronary risk information to adults: a systematic review.

PubMed

Sheridan, Stacey L; Viera, Anthony J; Krantz, Mori J; Ice, Christa L; Steinman, Lesley E; Peters, Karen E; Kopin, Laurie A; Lungelow, Danielle

2010-02-08

Global coronary heart disease (CHD) risk estimation (ie, a quantitative estimate of a patient's chances of CHD calculated by combining risk factors in an empirical equation) is recommended as a starting point for primary prevention efforts in all US adults. Whether it improves outcomes is currently unknown. To assess the effect of providing global CHD risk information to adults, we performed a systematic evidence review. We searched MEDLINE for the years 1980 to 2008, Psych Info, CINAHL, and the Cochrane Database and included English-language articles that met prespecified inclusion criteria. Two reviewers independently reviewed titles, abstracts, and articles for inclusion and assessed study quality. We identified 20 articles, reporting on 18 unique fair or good quality studies (including 14 randomized controlled studies). These showed that global CHD risk information alone or with accompanying education increased the accuracy of perceived risk and probably increased intent to start therapy. Studies with repeated risk information or risk information and repeated doses of counseling showed small significant reductions in predicted CHD risk (absolute differences, -0.2% to -2% over 10 years in studies using risk estimates derived from Framingham equations). Studies providing global risk information at only 1 point in time seemed ineffective. Global CHD risk information seems to improve the accuracy of risk perception and may increase intent to initiate CHD prevention among individuals at moderate to high risk. The effect of global risk presentation on more distal outcomes is less clear and seems to be related to the intensity of accompanying interventions.

Colon Cancer Risk Assessment - Gauss Program

Cancer.gov

An executable file (in GAUSS) that projects absolute colon cancer risk (with confidence intervals) according to NCI’s Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (CCRAT) algorithm. GAUSS is not needed to run the program.

Motion-induced error reduction by combining Fourier transform profilometry with phase-shifting profilometry.

PubMed

Li, Beiwen; Liu, Ziping; Zhang, Song

2016-10-03

We propose a hybrid computational framework to reduce motion-induced measurement error by combining the Fourier transform profilometry (FTP) and phase-shifting profilometry (PSP). The proposed method is composed of three major steps: Step 1 is to extract continuous relative phase maps for each isolated object with single-shot FTP method and spatial phase unwrapping; Step 2 is to obtain an absolute phase map of the entire scene using PSP method, albeit motion-induced errors exist on the extracted absolute phase map; and Step 3 is to shift the continuous relative phase maps from Step 1 to generate final absolute phase maps for each isolated object by referring to the absolute phase map with error from Step 2. Experiments demonstrate the success of the proposed computational framework for measuring multiple isolated rapidly moving objects.

Comparison of Mammographic Density Assessed as Volumes and Areas among Women Undergoing Diagnostic Image-Guided Breast Biopsy

PubMed Central

Gierach, Gretchen L.; Geller, Berta M.; Shepherd, John A.; Patel, Deesha A.; Vacek, Pamela M.; Weaver, Donald L.; Chicoine, Rachael E.; Pfeiffer, Ruth M.; Fan, Bo; Mahmoudzadeh, Amir Pasha; Wang, Jeff; Johnson, Jason M.; Herschorn, Sally D.; Brinton, Louise A.; Sherman, Mark E.

2014-01-01

Background Mammographic density (MD), the area of non-fatty appearing tissue divided by total breast area, is a strong breast cancer risk factor. Most MD analyses have employed visual categorizations or computer-assisted quantification, which ignore breast thickness. We explored MD volume and area, using a volumetric approach previously validated as predictive of breast cancer risk, in relation to risk factors among women undergoing breast biopsy. Methods Among 413 primarily white women, ages 40–65, undergoing diagnostic breast biopsies between 2007–2010 at an academic facility in Vermont, MD volume (cm3) was quantified in cranio-caudal views of the breast contralateral to the biopsy target using a density phantom, while MD area (cm2) was measured on the same digital mammograms using thresholding software. Risk factor associations with continuous MD measurements were evaluated using linear regression. Results Percent MD volume and area were correlated (r=0.81) and strongly and inversely associated with age, body mass index (BMI), and menopause. Both measures were inversely associated with smoking and positively associated with breast biopsy history. Absolute MD measures were correlated (r=0.46) and inversely related to age and menopause. Whereas absolute dense area was inversely associated with BMI, absolute dense volume was positively associated. Conclusions Volume and area MD measures exhibit some overlap in risk factor associations, but divergence as well, particularly for BMI. Impact Findings suggest that volume and area density measures differ in subsets of women; notably, among obese women, absolute density was higher with volumetric methods, suggesting that breast cancer risk assessments may vary for these techniques. PMID:25139935

Unilateral lower limb suspension does not mimic bed rest or spaceflight effects on human muscle fiber function

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Widrick, J. J.; Trappe, S. W.; Romatowski, J. G.; Riley, D. A.; Costill, D. L.; Fitts, R. H.

2002-01-01

We used Ca2+-activated skinned muscle fibers to test the hypothesis that unilateral lower leg suspension (ULLS) alters cross-bridge mechanisms of muscle contraction. Soleus and gastrocnemius biopsies were obtained from eight subjects before ULLS, immediately after 12 days of ULLS (post-0 h), and after 6 h of reambulation (post-6 h). Post-0 h soleus fibers expressing type I myosin heavy chain (MHC) showed significant reductions in diameter, absolute and specific peak Ca2+-activated force, unloaded shortening velocity, and absolute and normalized peak power. Fibers obtained from the gastrocnemius were less affected by ULLS, particularly fibers expressing fast MHC isoforms. Post-6 h soleus fibers produced less absolute and specific peak force than did post-0 h fibers, suggesting that reambulation after ULLS induced cell damage. Like bed rest and spaceflight, ULLS primarily affects soleus over gastrocnemius fibers. However, in contrast to these other models, slow soleus fibers obtained after ULLS showed a decrease in unloaded shortening velocity and a greater reduction in specific force.

Projecting Individualized Absolute Invasive Breast Cancer Risk in US Hispanic Women.

PubMed

Banegas, Matthew P; John, Esther M; Slattery, Martha L; Gomez, Scarlett Lin; Yu, Mandi; LaCroix, Andrea Z; Pee, David; Chlebowski, Rowan T; Hines, Lisa M; Thompson, Cynthia A; Gail, Mitchell H

2017-02-01

There is no model to estimate absolute invasive breast cancer risk for Hispanic women. The San Francisco Bay Area Breast Cancer Study (SFBCS) provided data on Hispanic breast cancer case patients (533 US-born, 553 foreign-born) and control participants (464 US-born, 947 foreign-born). These data yielded estimates of relative risk (RR) and attributable risk (AR) separately for US-born and foreign-born women. Nativity-specific absolute risks were estimated by combining RR and AR information with nativity-specific invasive breast cancer incidence and competing mortality rates from the California Cancer Registry and Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program to develop the Hispanic risk model (HRM). In independent data, we assessed model calibration through observed/expected (O/E) ratios, and we estimated discriminatory accuracy with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) statistic. The US-born HRM included age at first full-term pregnancy, biopsy for benign breast disease, and family history of breast cancer; the foreign-born HRM also included age at menarche. The HRM estimated lower risks than the National Cancer Institute's Breast Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (BCRAT) for US-born Hispanic women, but higher risks in foreign-born women. In independent data from the Women's Health Initiative, the HRM was well calibrated for US-born women (observed/expected [O/E] ratio = 1.07, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.81 to 1.40), but seemed to overestimate risk in foreign-born women (O/E ratio = 0.66, 95% CI = 0.41 to 1.07). The AUC was 0.564 (95% CI = 0.485 to 0.644) for US-born and 0.625 (95% CI = 0.487 to 0.764) for foreign-born women. The HRM is the first absolute risk model that is based entirely on data specific to Hispanic women by nativity. Further studies in Hispanic women are warranted to evaluate its validity. Published by Oxford University Press 2016. This work is written by US Government employees and is in the public domain in the US.

Quasi-Experimental Evaluation of the Effectiveness of a Large-Scale Readmission Reduction Program.

PubMed

Jenq, Grace Y; Doyle, Margaret M; Belton, Beverly M; Herrin, Jeph; Horwitz, Leora I

2016-05-01

Feasibility, effectiveness, and sustainability of large-scale readmission reduction efforts are uncertain. The Greater New Haven Coalition for Safe Transitions and Readmission Reductions was funded by the Center for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) to reduce readmissions among all discharged Medicare fee-for-service (FFS) patients. To evaluate whether overall Medicare FFS readmissions were reduced through an intervention applied to high-risk discharge patients. This quasi-experimental evaluation took place at an urban academic medical center. Target discharge patients were older than 64 years with Medicare FFS insurance, residing in nearby zip codes, and discharged alive to home or facility and not against medical advice or to hospice; control discharge patients were older than 54 years with the same zip codes and discharge disposition but without Medicare FFS insurance if older than 64 years. High-risk target discharge patients were selectively enrolled in the program. Personalized transitional care, including education, medication reconciliation, follow-up telephone calls, and linkage to community resources. We measured the 30-day unplanned same-hospital readmission rates in the baseline period (May 1, 2011, through April 30, 2012) and intervention period (October 1, 2012, through May 31, 2014). We enrolled 10 621 (58.3%) of 18 223 target discharge patients (73.9% of discharge patients screened as high risk) and included all target discharge patients in the analysis. The mean (SD) age of the target discharge patients was 79.7 (8.8) years. The adjusted readmission rate decreased from 21.5% to 19.5% in the target population and from 21.1% to 21.0% in the control population, a relative reduction of 9.3%. The number needed to treat to avoid 1 readmission was 50. In a difference-in-differences analysis using a logistic regression model, the odds of readmission in the target population decreased significantly more than that of the control population in the intervention period (odds ratio, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.83-0.99; P = .03). In a comparative interrupted time series analysis of the difference in monthly adjusted admission rates, the target population decreased an absolute -3.09 (95% CI, -6.47 to 0.29; P = .07) relative to the control population, a similar but nonsignificant effect. This large-scale readmission reduction program reduced readmissions by 9.3% among the full population targeted by the CMS despite being delivered only to high-risk patients. However, it did not achieve the goal reduction set by the CMS.

Prevalence Incidence Mixture Models

Cancer.gov

The R package and webtool fits Prevalence Incidence Mixture models to left-censored and irregularly interval-censored time to event data that is commonly found in screening cohorts assembled from electronic health records. Absolute and relative risk can be estimated for simple random sampling, and stratified sampling (the two approaches of superpopulation and a finite population are supported for target populations). Non-parametric (absolute risks only), semi-parametric, weakly-parametric (using B-splines), and some fully parametric (such as the logistic-Weibull) models are supported.

Coronary calcium predicts events better with absolute calcium scores than age-sex-race/ethnicity percentiles: MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis).

PubMed

Budoff, Matthew J; Nasir, Khurram; McClelland, Robyn L; Detrano, Robert; Wong, Nathan; Blumenthal, Roger S; Kondos, George; Kronmal, Richard A

2009-01-27

In this study, we aimed to establish whether age-sex-specific percentiles of coronary artery calcium (CAC) predict cardiovascular outcomes better than the actual (absolute) CAC score. The presence and extent of CAC correlates with the overall magnitude of coronary atherosclerotic plaque burden and with the development of subsequent coronary events. MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) is a prospective cohort study of 6,814 asymptomatic participants followed for coronary heart disease (CHD) events including myocardial infarction, angina, resuscitated cardiac arrest, or CHD death. Time to incident CHD was modeled with Cox regression, and we compared models with percentiles based on age, sex, and/or race/ethnicity to categories commonly used (0, 1 to 100, 101 to 400, 400+ Agatston units). There were 163 (2.4%) incident CHD events (median follow-up 3.75 years). Expressing CAC in terms of age- and sex-specific percentiles had significantly lower area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) than when using absolute scores (women: AUC 0.73 versus 0.76, p = 0.044; men: AUC 0.73 versus 0.77, p < 0.001). Akaike's information criterion indicated better model fit with the overall score. Both methods robustly predicted events (>90th percentile associated with a hazard ratio [HR] of 16.4, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 9.30 to 28.9, and score >400 associated with HR of 20.6, 95% CI: 11.8 to 36.0). Within groups based on age-, sex-, and race/ethnicity-specific percentiles there remains a clear trend of increasing risk across levels of the absolute CAC groups. In contrast, once absolute CAC category is fixed, there is no increasing trend across levels of age-, sex-, and race/ethnicity-specific categories. Patients with low absolute scores are low-risk, regardless of age-, sex-, and race/ethnicity-specific percentile rank. Persons with an absolute CAC score of >400 are high risk, regardless of percentile rank. Using absolute CAC in standard groups performed better than age-, sex-, and race/ethnicity-specific percentiles in terms of model fit and discrimination. We recommend using cut points based on the absolute CAC amount, and the common CAC cut points of 100 and 400 seem to perform well.

Thyroid neoplasia following low-dose radiation in childhood

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ron, E.; Modan, B.; Preston, D.

1989-12-01

The thyroid gland is highly sensitive to the carcinogenic effects of ionizing radiation. Previously, we reported a significant increase of thyroid cancer and adenomas among 10,834 persons in Israel who received radiotherapy to the scalp for ringworm. These findings have now been extended with further follow-up and revised dosimetry. Overall, 98 thyroid tumors were identified among the exposed and 57 among 10,834 nonexposed matched population and 5392 sibling comparison subjects. An estimated thyroid dose of 9 cGy was linked to a fourfold (95% Cl = 2.3-7.9) increase of malignant tumors and a twofold (95% Cl = 1.3-3.0) increase of benignmore » tumors. The dose-response relationship was consistent with linearity. Age was an important modifier of risk with those exposed under 5 years being significantly more prone to develop thyroid tumors than older children. The pattern of radiation risk over time could be described on the basis of a constant multiplication of the background rate, and an absolute risk model was not compatible with the observed data. Overall, the excess relative risk per cGy for thyroid cancer development after childhood exposure is estimated as 0.3, and the absolute excess risk as 13 per 10(6) PY-cGy. For benign tumors the estimated excess relative risk was 0.1 per cGy and the absolute risk was 15 per 10(6) PY-cGy.« less

Prostate-Specific Antigen (PSA)–Based Population Screening for Prostate Cancer: An Evidence-Based Analysis

PubMed Central

Pron, G

2015-01-01

Background Prostate cancer (PC) is the most commonly diagnosed non-cutaneous cancer in men and their second or third leading cause of cancer death. Prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing for PC has been in common practice for more than 20 years. Objectives A systematic review of the scientific literature was conducted to determine the effectiveness of PSA-based population screening programs for PC to inform policy decisions in a publicly funded health care system. Data Sources A systematic review of bibliographic databases was performed for systematic reviews or randomized controlled trials (RCT) of PSA-based population screening programs for PC. Review Methods A broad search strategy was employed to identify studies reporting on key outcomes of PC mortality and all-cause mortality. Results The search identified 5 systematic reviews and 6 RCTs. None of the systematic reviews found a statistically significant reduction in relative risk (RR) of PC mortality or overall mortality with PSA-based screening. PC mortality reductions were found to vary by country, by screening program, and by age of men at study entry. The European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer found a statistically significant reduction in RR in PC mortality at 11-year follow-up (0.79; 95% CI, 0.67–0.92), although the absolute risk reduction was small (1.0/10,000 person-years). However, the primary treatment for PCs differed significantly between countries and between trial arms. The American Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial (PLCO) found a statistically non-significant increase in RR for PC mortality with 13-year follow-up (1.09; 95% CI, 0.87–1.36). The degree of opportunistic screening in the control arm of the PLCO trial, however, was high. None of the RCTs found a reduction in all-cause mortality and all found a statistically significant increase in the detection of mainly low-risk, organ-confined PCs in the screening arm. Conclusions There was no evidence of a PC mortality reduction in the American PLCO trial, which investigated a screening program in a setting where opportunistic screening was already common practice. Given that opportunistic PSA screening practices in Canada are similar, it is unlikely that the introduction of a formal PSA screening program would reduce PC mortality. PMID:26366236

Prostate-Specific Antigen (PSA)-Based Population Screening for Prostate Cancer: An Evidence-Based Analysis.

PubMed

Pron, G

2015-01-01

Prostate cancer (PC) is the most commonly diagnosed non-cutaneous cancer in men and their second or third leading cause of cancer death. Prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing for PC has been in common practice for more than 20 years. A systematic review of the scientific literature was conducted to determine the effectiveness of PSA-based population screening programs for PC to inform policy decisions in a publicly funded health care system. A systematic review of bibliographic databases was performed for systematic reviews or randomized controlled trials (RCT) of PSA-based population screening programs for PC. A broad search strategy was employed to identify studies reporting on key outcomes of PC mortality and all-cause mortality. The search identified 5 systematic reviews and 6 RCTs. None of the systematic reviews found a statistically significant reduction in relative risk (RR) of PC mortality or overall mortality with PSA-based screening. PC mortality reductions were found to vary by country, by screening program, and by age of men at study entry. The European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer found a statistically significant reduction in RR in PC mortality at 11-year follow-up (0.79; 95% CI, 0.67-0.92), although the absolute risk reduction was small (1.0/10,000 person-years). However, the primary treatment for PCs differed significantly between countries and between trial arms. The American Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial (PLCO) found a statistically non-significant increase in RR for PC mortality with 13-year follow-up (1.09; 95% CI, 0.87-1.36). The degree of opportunistic screening in the control arm of the PLCO trial, however, was high. None of the RCTs found a reduction in all-cause mortality and all found a statistically significant increase in the detection of mainly low-risk, organ-confined PCs in the screening arm. There was no evidence of a PC mortality reduction in the American PLCO trial, which investigated a screening program in a setting where opportunistic screening was already common practice. Given that opportunistic PSA screening practices in Canada are similar, it is unlikely that the introduction of a formal PSA screening program would reduce PC mortality.

Patterns and determinants of functional and absolute iron deficiency in patients undergoing cardiac rehabilitation following heart surgery.

PubMed

Tramarin, Roberto; Pistuddi, Valeria; Maresca, Luigi; Pavesi, Marco; Castelvecchio, Serenella; Menicanti, Lorenzo; de Vincentiis, Carlo; Ranucci, Marco

2017-05-01

Background Anaemia and iron deficiency are frequent following major surgery. The present study aims to identify the iron deficiency patterns in cardiac surgery patients at their admission to a cardiac rehabilitation programme, and to determine which perioperative risk factor(s) may be associated with functional and absolute iron deficiency. Design This was a retrospective study on prospectively collected data. Methods The patient population included 339 patients. Functional iron deficiency was defined in the presence of transferrin saturation <20% and serum ferritin ≥100 µg/l. Absolute iron deficiency was defined in the presence of serum ferritin values <100 µg/l. Results Functional iron deficiency was found in 62.9% of patients and absolute iron deficiency in 10% of the patients. At a multivariable analysis, absolute iron deficiency was significantly ( p = 0.001) associated with mechanical prosthesis mitral valve replacement (odds ratio 5.4, 95% confidence interval 1.9-15) and tissue valve aortic valve replacement (odds ratio 4.5, 95% confidence interval 1.9-11). In mitral valve surgery, mitral repair carried a significant ( p = 0.013) lower risk of absolute iron deficiency (4.4%) than mitral valve replacement with tissue valves (8.3%) or mechanical prostheses (22.5%). Postoperative outcome did not differ between patients with functional iron deficiency and patients without iron deficiency; patients with absolute iron deficiency had a significantly ( p = 0.017) longer postoperative hospital stay (median 11 days) than patients without iron deficiency (median nine days) or with functional iron deficiency (median eight days). Conclusions Absolute iron deficiency following cardiac surgery is more frequent in heart valve surgery and is associated with a prolonged hospital stay. Routine screening for iron deficiency at admission in the cardiac rehabilitation unit is suggested.

Real versus virtual phenotype to guide treatment in heavily pretreated patients: 48-week follow-up of the Genotipo-Fenotipo di Resistenza (GenPheRex) trial.

PubMed

Mazzotta, Francesco; Lo Caputo, Sergio; Torti, Carlo; Tinelli, Carmine; Pierotti, Piera; Castelli, Francesco; Lazzarin, Adriano; Angarano, Gioacchino; Maserati, Renato; Gianotti, Nicola; Ladisa, Nicoletta; Quiros-Roldan, Eugenia; Rinehart, Alex R; Carosi, Giampiero

2003-03-01

We compared viroimmunologic response after real phenotype (r-PHT) versus virtual phenotype (v-PHT) in patients failing highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). A total of 201 patients with >2 years of exposure, more than six experienced drugs, >1000 HIV RNA copies/mL, and on stable HAART for >6 months were randomized to the r-PHT or v-PHT arm. The primary end point was the proportion of HIV plasma viral load (pVL) <400 copies/mL. Secondary end points were absolute pVL change, proportion of pVL reduction >0.5 log(10) copies/mL, and absolute CD4 cell change. In the intention-to-treat-last observation carried forward analysis, study outcomes were not significantly different between arms over 48 weeks of follow-up: 20% and 24% pVL <400 copies/mL; 58% and 61% pVL reduction >0.5 log(10) copies/mL; -0.92 and -0.94(10) log copies/mL mean pVL decrease; and +41.6 and +94.4 cells/mm(3) mean absolute CD4 increase in the r-PHT and v-PHT arms, respectively. On-treatment analyses gave similar results. In the multivariate analysis of pVL <400 copies/mL, the following covariates were independent predictors at week 48: adherence (OR p= 0.25; p=.002), baseline CD4 (OR = 4.39; p=.007), intravenous drug use as risk factor for HIV acquisition (OR = 0.33; p=.024), and sensitivity score of the new regimens by biologic cut-offs (OR = 1.84; p=.029). Prescribed drugs for which patients were naive resulted in marginal prediction (OR = 1.93; p=.054). In conclusion, virologic and immunologic outcomes did not differ when r-PHT or v-PHT was used in this cohort of heavily pretreated patients. Several factors should be considered to take better advantage of resistance testing, including treatment history, clinical status, and patients' ability to adhere to treatment.

Thyroid Cancer Risk Assessment Tool

Cancer.gov

The R package thyroid implements a risk prediction model developed by NCI researchers to calculate the absolute risk of developing a second primary thyroid cancer (SPTC) in individuals who were diagnosed with a cancer during their childhood.

[Prognostic value of absolute monocyte count in chronic lymphocytic leukaemia].

PubMed

Szerafin, László; Jakó, János; Riskó, Ferenc

2015-04-01

The low peripheral absolute lymphocyte and high monocyte count have been reported to correlate with poor clinical outcome in various lymphomas and other cancers. However, a few data known about the prognostic value of absolute monocyte count in chronic lymphocytic leukaemia. The aim of the authors was to investigate the impact of absolute monocyte count measured at the time of diagnosis in patients with chronic lymphocytic leukaemia on the time to treatment and overal survival. Between January 1, 2005 and December 31, 2012, 223 patients with newly-diagnosed chronic lymphocytic leukaemia were included. The rate of patients needing treatment, time to treatment, overal survival and causes of mortality based on Rai stages, CD38, ZAP-70 positivity and absolute monocyte count were analyzed. Therapy was necessary in 21.1%, 57.4%, 88.9%, 88.9% and 100% of patients in Rai stage 0, I, II, III an IV, respectively; in 61.9% and 60.8% of patients exhibiting CD38 and ZAP-70 positivity, respectively; and in 76.9%, 21.2% and 66.2% of patients if the absolute monocyte count was <0.25 G/l, between 0.25-0.75 G/l and >0.75 G/l, respectively. The median time to treatment and the median overal survival were 19.5, 65, and 35.5 months; and 41.5, 65, and 49.5 months according to the three groups of monocyte counts. The relative risk of beginning the therapy was 1.62 (p<0.01) in patients with absolute monocyte count <0.25 G/l or >0.75 G/l, as compared to those with 0.25-0.75 G/l, and the risk of overal survival was 2.41 (p<0.01) in patients with absolute monocyte count lower than 0.25 G/l as compared to those with higher than 0.25 G/l. The relative risks remained significant in Rai 0 patients, too. The leading causes of mortality were infections (41.7%) and the chronic lymphocytic leukaemia (58.3%) in patients with low monocyte count, while tumours (25.9-35.3%) and other events (48.1 and 11.8%) occurred in patients with medium or high monocyte counts. Patients with low and high monocyte counts had a shorter time to treatment compared to patients who belonged to the intermediate monocyte count group. The low absolute monocyte count was associated with increased mortality caused by infectious complications and chronic lymphocytic leukaemia. The absolute monocyte count may give additional prognostic information in Rai stage 0, too.

Realized volatility and absolute return volatility: a comparison indicating market risk.

PubMed

Zheng, Zeyu; Qiao, Zhi; Takaishi, Tetsuya; Stanley, H Eugene; Li, Baowen

2014-01-01

Measuring volatility in financial markets is a primary challenge in the theory and practice of risk management and is essential when developing investment strategies. Although the vast literature on the topic describes many different models, two nonparametric measurements have emerged and received wide use over the past decade: realized volatility and absolute return volatility. The former is strongly favored in the financial sector and the latter by econophysicists. We examine the memory and clustering features of these two methods and find that both enable strong predictions. We compare the two in detail and find that although realized volatility has a better short-term effect that allows predictions of near-future market behavior, absolute return volatility is easier to calculate and, as a risk indicator, has approximately the same sensitivity as realized volatility. Our detailed empirical analysis yields valuable guidelines for both researchers and market participants because it provides a significantly clearer comparison of the strengths and weaknesses of the two methods.

Realized Volatility and Absolute Return Volatility: A Comparison Indicating Market Risk

PubMed Central

Takaishi, Tetsuya; Stanley, H. Eugene; Li, Baowen

2014-01-01

Measuring volatility in financial markets is a primary challenge in the theory and practice of risk management and is essential when developing investment strategies. Although the vast literature on the topic describes many different models, two nonparametric measurements have emerged and received wide use over the past decade: realized volatility and absolute return volatility. The former is strongly favored in the financial sector and the latter by econophysicists. We examine the memory and clustering features of these two methods and find that both enable strong predictions. We compare the two in detail and find that although realized volatility has a better short-term effect that allows predictions of near-future market behavior, absolute return volatility is easier to calculate and, as a risk indicator, has approximately the same sensitivity as realized volatility. Our detailed empirical analysis yields valuable guidelines for both researchers and market participants because it provides a significantly clearer comparison of the strengths and weaknesses of the two methods. PMID:25054439

Prediction of 10-year coronary heart disease risk in Caribbean type 2 diabetic patients using the UKPDS risk engine.

PubMed

Ezenwaka, C E; Nwagbara, E; Seales, D; Okali, F; Hussaini, S; Raja, Bn; Jones-LeCointe, A; Sell, H; Avci, H; Eckel, J

2009-03-06

Primary prevention of Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) in diabetic patients should be based on absolute CHD risk calculation. This study was aimed to determine the levels of 10-year CHD risk in Caribbean type 2 diabetic patients using the diabetes specific United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) risk engine calculator. Three hundred and twenty-five (106 males, 219 females) type 2 diabetic patients resident in two Caribbean Islands of Tobago and Trinidad met the UKPDS risk engine inclusion criteria. Records of their sex, age, ethnicity, smoking habit, diabetes duration, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, HDL-cholesterol and glycated haemoglobin were entered into the UKPDS risk engine calculator programme and the absolute 10-year CHD and stroke risk levels were computed. The 10-year CHD and stroke risks were statistically stratified into <15%, 15-30% and >30% CHD risk levels and differences between patients of African and Asian-Indian origin were compared. In comparison with patients in Tobago, type 2 diabetic patients in Trinidad, irrespective of gender, had higher proportion of 10-year CHD risk (10.4 vs. 23.6%, P<0.001) whereas the overall 10-year stroke risk prediction was higher in patients resident in Tobago (16.9 vs. 11.4%, P<0.001). Ethnicity-based analysis revealed that irrespective of gender, higher proportion of patients of Indian origin scored >30% of absolute 10-year CHD risk compared with patients of African descent (3.2 vs. 28.2%, P<0.001). The results of the study identified diabetic patients resident in Trinidad and patients of Indian origin as the most vulnerable groups for CHD. These groups of diabetic patients should have priority in primary or secondary prevention of coronary heart disease.

Suicide Prevention in an Emergency Department Population: The ED-SAFE Study.

PubMed

Miller, Ivan W; Camargo, Carlos A; Arias, Sarah A; Sullivan, Ashley F; Allen, Michael H; Goldstein, Amy B; Manton, Anne P; Espinola, Janice A; Jones, Richard; Hasegawa, Kohei; Boudreaux, Edwin D

2017-06-01

Suicide is a leading cause of deaths in the United States. Although the emergency department (ED) is an opportune setting for initiating suicide prevention efforts, ED-initiated suicide prevention interventions remain underdeveloped. To determine whether an ED-initiated intervention reduces subsequent suicidal behavior. This multicenter study of 8 EDs in the United States enrolled adults with a recent suicide attempt or ideation and was composed of 3 sequential phases: (1) a treatment as usual (TAU) phase from August 2010 to December 2011, (2) a universal screening (screening) phase from September 2011 to December 2012, and (3) a universal screening plus intervention (intervention) phase from July 2012 to November 2013. Screening consisted of universal suicide risk screening. The intervention phase consisted of universal screening plus an intervention, which included secondary suicide risk screening by the ED physician, discharge resources, and post-ED telephone calls focused on reducing suicide risk. The primary outcome was suicide attempts (nonfatal and fatal) over the 52-week follow-up period. The proportion and total number of attempts were analyzed. A total of 1376 participants were recruited, including 769 females (55.9%) with a median (interquartile range) age of 37 (26-47) years. A total of 288 participants (20.9%) made at least 1 suicide attempt, and there were 548 total suicide attempts among participants. There were no significant differences in risk reduction between the TAU and screening phases (23% vs 22%, respectively). However, compared with the TAU phase, patients in the intervention phase showed a 5% absolute reduction in suicide attempt risk (23% vs 18%), with a relative risk reduction of 20%. Participants in the intervention phase had 30% fewer total suicide attempts than participants in the TAU phase. Negative binomial regression analysis indicated that the participants in the intervention phase had significantly fewer total suicide attempts than participants in the TAU phase (incidence rate ratio, 0.72; 95% CI, 0.52-1.00; P = .05) but no differences between the TAU and screening phases (incidence rate ratio, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.71-1.41; P = .99). Among at-risk patients in the ED, a combination of brief interventions administered both during and after the ED visit decreased post-ED suicidal behavior.

Association of Changes in Air Quality With Bronchitic Symptoms in Children in California, 1993-2012.

PubMed

Berhane, Kiros; Chang, Chih-Chieh; McConnell, Rob; Gauderman, W James; Avol, Edward; Rapapport, Ed; Urman, Robert; Lurmann, Fred; Gilliland, Frank

2016-04-12

Childhood bronchitic symptoms are significant public and clinical health problems that produce a substantial burden of disease. Ambient air pollutants are important determinants of bronchitis occurrence. To determine whether improvements in ambient air quality in Southern California were associated with reductions in bronchitic symptoms in children. A longitudinal study involving 4602 children (age range, 5-18 years) from 3 cohorts was conducted during the 1993-2001, 1996-2004, and 2003-2012 years in 8 Southern California communities. A multilevel logistic model was used to estimate the association of changes in pollution levels with bronchitic symptoms. Average concentrations of nitrogen dioxide, ozone, particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of less than 10 µm (PM10) and less than 2.5 µm (PM2.5). Annual age-specific prevalence of bronchitic symptoms during the previous 12 months based on the parent's or child's report of a daily cough for 3 months in a row, congestion or phlegm other than when accompanied by a cold, or bronchitis. The 3 cohorts included a total of 4602 children (mean age at baseline, 8.0 years; 2268 girls [49.3%]; 2081 Hispanic white [45.2%]) who had data from 2 or more annual questionnaires. Among these children, 892 (19.4%) had asthma at age 10 years. For nitrogen dioxide, the odds ratio (OR) for bronchitic symptoms among children with asthma at age 10 years was 0.79 (95% CI, 0.67-0.94) for a median reduction of 4.9 ppb, with absolute decrease in prevalence of 10.1%. For ozone, the OR was 0.66 (95% CI, 0.50-0.86) for a median reduction of 3.6 ppb, with an absolute decrease in prevalence of 16.3%. For PM10, the OR was 0.61 (95% CI, 0.48-0.78) for a median reduction of 5.8 µg/m3, with an absolute decrease in prevalence of 18.7%. For PM2.5, the OR was 0.68 (95% CI, 0.53-0.86) for a median reduction of 6.8 µg/m3, with absolute decrease in prevalence of 15.4%. Among children without asthma (n = 3710), the ORs were 0.84 (95% CI, 0.76-0.92) for nitrogen dioxide; 0.85 (95% CI, 0.74-0.97) for ozone, 0.80 (95% CI, 0.70-0.92) for PM10, and 0.79 (95% CI, 0.69-0.91) for PM2.5; with absolute decrease in prevalence of 1.8% for nitrogen dioxide, 1.7% for ozone, 2.2% for PM10, and 2.3% for PM2.5. The associations were similar or slightly stronger at age 15 years. Decreases in ambient pollution levels were associated with statistically significant decreases in bronchitic symptoms in children. Although the study design does not establish causality, the findings support potential benefit of air pollution reduction on asthma control.

A novel reductive amination method with isotopic formaldehydes for the preparation of internal standard and standards for determining organosulfur compounds in garlic.

PubMed

Tsai, De-Cheng; Liu, Meng-Chieh; Lin, Yi-Reng; Huang, Mei-Fang; Liang, Shih-Shin

2016-04-15

Garlic (Allium sativum) is a long-cultivated plant that is widely utilized in cooking and has been employed as a medicine for over 4000 years. In this study, we fabricated standards and internal standards (ISs) for absolute quantification via reductive amination with isotopic formaldehydes. Garlic has four abundant organosulfur compounds (OSCs): S-allylcysteine, S-allylcysteinine sulfoxide, S-methylcysteine, and S-ethylcysteine are abundant in garlic. OSCs with primary amine groups were reacted with isotopic formaldehydes to synthesize ISs and standards. Cooked and uncooked garlic samples were compared, and we utilized tandem mass spectrometry equipped with a selective reaction monitoring technique to absolutely quantify the four organosulfur compounds. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Reduction of User Interaction by Autonomy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morfopoulos, Arin; McHenry, Michael; Matthies, Larry

2006-01-01

This paper describes experiments that quantify the improvement that autonomous behaviors enable in the amount of user interaction required to navigate a robot in urban environments. Many papers have discussed various ways to measure the absolute level of autonomy of a system; we measured the relative improvement of autonomous behaviors over teleoperation across multiple traverses of the same course. We performed four runs each on an 'easy' course and a 'hard' course, where half the runs were teleoperated and half used more autonomous behaviors. Statistics show 40-70% reductions in the amount of time the user interacts with the control station; however, with the behaviors tested, user attention remained on the control station even when he was not interacting. Reducing the need for attention will require better obstacle detection and avoidance and better absolute position estimation.

Analysis of consumer information brochures on osteoporosis prevention and treatment.

PubMed

Meyer, Gabriele; Steckelberg, Anke; Mühlhauser, Ingrid

2007-01-11

Evidence-based consumer information is a prerequisite for informed decision making. So far, there are no reports on the quality of consumer information brochures on osteoporosis. In the present study we analysed brochures on osteoporosis available in Germany. All printed brochures from patient and consumer advocacy groups, physician and governmental organisations, health insurances, and pharmaceutical companies were initially collected in 2001, and updated in December 2004. Brochures were analysed by two independent researchers using 37 internationally proposed criteria addressing evidence-based content, risk communication, transparency of the development process, and layout and design. A total of 165 brochures were identified; 59 were included as they specifically targeted osteoporosis prevention and treatment. Most brochures were provided by pharmaceutical companies (n=25), followed by health insurances (n=11) and patient and consumer advocacy groups (n=11). Quality of brochures did not differ between providers. Only 1 brochure presented lifetime risk estimate; 4 mentioned natural course of osteoporosis. A balanced report on benefit versus lack of benefit was presented in 2 brochures and on benefit versus adverse effects in 8 brochures. Four brochures mentioned relative risk reduction, 1 reported absolute risk reduction through hormone replacement therapy (HRT). Out of 28 brochures accessed in 2004 10 still recommended HRT without discussing adverse effects. Transparency of the development process was limited: 25 brochures reported publication date, 26 cited author and only 1 references. In contrast, readability and design was generally good. The quality of consumer brochures on osteoporosis in Germany is utterly inadequate. They fail to give evidence-based data on diagnosis and treatment options. Therefore, the material is not useful to enhance informed consumer choice.

Analysis of consumer information brochures on osteoporosis prevention and treatment

PubMed Central

Meyer, Gabriele; Steckelberg, Anke; Mühlhauser, Ingrid

2007-01-01

Purpose: Evidence-based consumer information is a prerequisite for informed decision making. So far, there are no reports on the quality of consumer information brochures on osteoporosis. In the present study we analysed brochures on osteoporosis available in Germany. Method: All printed brochures from patient and consumer advocacy groups, physician and governmental organisations, health insurances, and pharmaceutical companies were initially collected in 2001, and updated in December 2004. Brochures were analysed by two independent researchers using 37 internationally proposed criteria addressing evidence-based content, risk communication, transparency of the development process, and layout and design. Results: A total of 165 brochures were identified; 59 were included as they specifically targeted osteoporosis prevention and treatment. Most brochures were provided by pharmaceutical companies (n=25), followed by health insurances (n=11) and patient and consumer advocacy groups (n=11). Quality of brochures did not differ between providers. Only 1 brochure presented lifetime risk estimate; 4 mentioned natural course of osteoporosis. A balanced report on benefit versus lack of benefit was presented in 2 brochures and on benefit versus adverse effects in 8 brochures. Four brochures mentioned relative risk reduction, 1 reported absolute risk reduction through hormone replacement therapy (HRT). Out of 28 brochures accessed in 2004 10 still recommended HRT without discussing adverse effects. Transparency of the development process was limited: 25 brochures reported publication date, 26 cited author and only 1 references. In contrast, readability and design was generally good. Conclusion: The quality of consumer brochures on osteoporosis in Germany is utterly inadequate. They fail to give evidence-based data on diagnosis and treatment options. Therefore, the material is not useful to enhance informed consumer choice. PMID:19675709

Prenatal Valproate Exposure and Risk of Autism Spectrum Disorders and Childhood Autism

PubMed Central

Christensen, Jakob; Grønborg, Therese Koops; Sørensen, Merete Juul; Schendel, Diana; Parner, Erik Thorlund; Pedersen, Lars Henning; Vestergaard, Mogens

2015-01-01

Importance Valproate is used for the treatment of epilepsy and other neuropsychological disorders and may be the only treatment option for women of childbearing potential. However, prenatal exposure to valproate may increase the risk of autism. Objective To determine whether prenatal exposure to valproate is associated with an increased risk of autism in offspring. Design, Setting, and Participants Population-based study of all children born alive in Denmark from 1996 to 2006. National registers were used to identify children exposed to valproate during pregnancy and diagnosed with autism spectrum disorders (childhood autism [autistic disorder], Asperger syndrome, atypical autism, and other or unspecified pervasive developmental disorders). We analyzed the risks associated with all autism spectrum disorders as well as childhood autism. Data were analyzed by Cox regression adjusting for potential confounders (maternal age at conception, paternal age at conception, parental psychiatric history, gestational age, birth weight, sex, congenital malformations, and parity). Children were followed up from birth until the day of autism spectrum disorder diagnosis, death, emigration, or December 31, 2010, whichever came first. Main Outcomes and Measures Absolute risk (cumulative incidence) and the hazard ratio (HR) of autism spectrum disorder and childhood autism in children after exposure to valproate in pregnancy. Results Of 655 615 children born from 1996 through 2006, 5437 were identified with autism spectrum disorder, including 2067 with childhood autism. The mean age of the children at end of follow-up was 8.84 years (range, 4-14; median, 8.85). The estimated absolute risk after 14 years of follow-up was 1.53% (95% CI, 1.47%- 1.58%) for autism spectrum disorder and 0.48% (95% CI, 0.46%-0.51%) for childhood autism. Overall, the 508 children exposed to valproate had an absolute risk of 4.42% (95% CI, 2.59%-7.46%) for autism spectrum disorder (adjusted HR, 2.9 [95% CI, 1.7-4.9]) and an absolute risk of 2.50% (95% CI, 1.30%-4.81%) for childhood autism (adjusted HR, 5.2 [95% CI, 2.7-10.0]). When restricting the cohort to the 6584 children born to women with epilepsy, the absolute risk of autism spectrum disorder among 432 children exposed to valproate was 4.15% (95% CI, 2.20%-7.81%) (adjusted HR, 1.7 [95% CI, 0.9-3.2]), and the absolute risk of childhood autism was 2.95% (95% CI, 1.42%-6.11%) (adjusted HR, 2.9 [95% CI, 1.4-6.0]) vs 2.44% (95% CI, 1.88%-3.16%) for autism spectrum disorder and 1.02% (95% CI, 0.70%-1.49%) for childhood autism among 6152 children not exposed to valproate. Conclusions and Relevance Maternal use of valproate during pregnancy was associated with a significantly increased risk of autism spectrum disorder and childhood autism in the offspring, even after adjusting for maternal epilepsy. For women of childbearing potential who use antiepileptic medications, these findings must be balanced against the treatment benefits for women who require valproate for epilepsy control. PMID:23613074

The effects of blood pressure reduction in older patients: an overview of five randomized controlled trials in elderly hypertensives.

PubMed

MacMahon, S; Rodgers, A

1993-11-01

Direct evidence about the effects of antihypertensive treatment on vascular disease in older patients is available from five randomized trials conducted exclusively in patients over the age of 60 years. These trials involved a total of 12,483 individuals with systolic or diastolic hypertension (mean age = 72 years, mean entry blood pressure = 181/88 mmHg). Over an average follow-up period of 4.7 years, a 15/6 mmHg difference in blood pressure between study and control groups was achieved. Among those patients assigned active treatment, stroke incidence was reduced by 34% SD6 and coronary heart disease incidence was reduced by 19% SD7. These proportional reductions were of similar size to those observed in trials in predominantly younger patients. However, the absolute benefits observed in older patients were more than twice as great as those observed in younger patients. The results suggest that over 10 years, treatment would prevent at least one major vascular event among every 10 elderly patients at similar risk to those enrolled in the trials.

No Absolutism Here: Harm Predicts Moral Judgment 30× Better Than Disgust-Commentary on Scott, Inbar, & Rozin (2016).

PubMed

Gray, Kurt; Schein, Chelsea

2016-05-01

Moral absolutism is the idea that people's moral judgments are insensitive to considerations of harm. Scott, Inbar, and Rozin (2016, this issue) claim that most moral opponents to genetically modified organisms are absolutely opposed-motivated by disgust and not harm. Yet there is no evidence for moral absolutism in their data. Perceived risk/harm is the most significant predictor of moral judgments for "absolutists," accounting for 30 times more variance than disgust. Reanalyses suggest that disgust is not even a significant predictor of the moral judgments of absolutists once accounting for perceived harm and anger. Instead of revealing actual moral absolutism, Scott et al. find only empty absolutism: hypothetical, forecasted, self-reported moral absolutism. Strikingly, the moral judgments of so-called absolutists are somewhat more sensitive to consequentialist concerns than those of nonabsolutists. Mediation reanalyses reveal that moral judgments are most proximally predicted by harm and not disgust, consistent with dyadic morality. © The Author(s) 2016.

NT-proBNP and Heart Failure Risk Among Individuals With and Without Obesity: The ARIC Study

PubMed Central

Ndumele, Chiadi E.; Matsushita, Kunihiro; Sang, Yingying; Lazo, Mariana; Agarwal, Sunil K.; Nambi, Vijay; Deswal, Anita; Blumenthal, Roger S.; Ballantyne, Christie M.; Coresh, Josef; Selvin, Elizabeth

2016-01-01

Background Obesity is a risk factor for heart failure (HF), but is associated with lower N-terminal of pro-Brain Natriuretic Peptide (NT-proBNP) levels. It is unclear whether the prognostic value and implications of NT-proBNP levels for HF risk differ across body mass index (BMI) categories. Methods and Results We followed 12,230 ARIC participants free of prior HF at baseline (visit 2, 1990–1992) with BMI ≥18.5 kg/m2. We quantified and compared the relative and absolute risk associations of NT-proBNP with incident HF across BMI categories. There were 1,861 HF events during a median 20.6 years of follow-up. Despite increased HF risk in obesity, a weak inverse association was seen between baseline BMI and NT-proBNP levels (r = −0.10). Nevertheless, higher baseline NT-proBNP was associated with increased HF risk in all BMI categories. NT-proBNP improved HF risk prediction overall and even among those with severe obesity (BMI ≥35 kg/m2; improvement in c-statistic +0.032 [95% CI 0.011–0.053]). However, given higher HF rates among those with obesity, at each NT-proBNP level, higher BMI was associated with greater absolute HF risk. Indeed, among those with NT-proBNP 100 to < 200 pg/ml, the average 10-year HF risk was <5% among normal weight individuals but >10% if severely obese. Conclusions Despite its inverse relationship with BMI, NT-proBNP provides significant prognostic information regarding the risk of developing HF even among individuals with obesity. Given the higher baseline HF risk among persons with obesity, even slight elevations in NT-proBNP may have implications for increased absolute HF risk in this population. PMID:26746175

Breast Cancer Risk Assessment SAS Macro (Gail Model)

Cancer.gov

A SAS macro (commonly referred to as the Gail Model) that projects absolute risk of invasive breast cancer according to NCI’s Breast Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (BCRAT) algorithm for specified race/ethnic groups and age intervals.

A randomised, controlled, double-blind trial of ultrasound-guided phrenic nerve block to prevent shoulder pain after thoracic surgery.

PubMed

Blichfeldt-Eckhardt, M R; Laursen, C B; Berg, H; Holm, J H; Hansen, L N; Ørding, H; Andersen, C; Licht, P B; Toft, P

2016-12-01

Moderate to severe ipsilateral shoulder pain is a common complaint following thoracic surgery. In this prospective, parallel-group study at Odense University Hospital, 76 patients (aged > 18 years) scheduled for lobectomy or pneumonectomy were randomised 1:1 using a computer-generated list to receive an ultrasound-guided supraclavicular phrenic nerve block with 10 ml ropivacaine or 10 ml saline (placebo) immediately following surgery. A nerve catheter was subsequently inserted and treatment continued for 3 days. The study drug was pharmaceutically pre-packed in sequentially numbered identical vials assuring that all participants, healthcare providers and data collectors were blinded. The primary outcome was the incidence of unilateral shoulder pain within the first 6 h after surgery. Pain was evaluated using a numeric rating scale. Nine of 38 patients in the ropivacaine group and 26 of 38 patients in the placebo group experienced shoulder pain during the first 6 h after surgery (absolute risk reduction 44% (95% CI 22-67%), relative risk reduction 65% (95% CI 41-80%); p = 0.00009). No major complications, including respiratory compromise or nerve injury, were observed. We conclude that ultrasound-guided supraclavicular phrenic nerve block is an effective technique for reducing the incidence of ipsilateral shoulder pain after thoracic surgery. © 2016 The Association of Anaesthetists of Great Britain and Ireland.

Treatment effect expressed as the novel Delay of Event measure is associated with high willingness to initiate preventive treatment - A randomized survey experiment comparing effect measures.

PubMed

Berglund, Erik; Westerling, Ragnar; Sundström, Johan; Lytsy, Per

2016-12-01

This study aimed to investigate patients' willingness to initiate a preventive treatment and compared two established effect measures to the newly developed Delay of Events (DoE) measure that expresses treatment effect as a gain in event-free time. In this cross-sectional, randomized survey experiment in the general Swedish population,1079 respondents (response rate 60.9%) were asked to consider a preventive cardiovascular treatment. Respondents were randomly allocated to one of three effect descriptions: DoE, relative risk reduction (RRR), or absolute risk reduction (ARR). Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed investigating willingness to initiate treatment, views on treatment benefit, motivation and importance to adhere and willingness to pay for treatment. Eighty-one percent were willing to take the medication when the effect was described as DoE, 83.0% when it was described as RRR and 62.8% when it was described as ARR. DoE and RRR was further associated with positive views on treatment benefit, motivation, importance to adhere and WTP. Presenting treatment effect as DoE or RRR was associated with a high willingness to initiate treatment. An approach based on the novel time-based measure DoE may be of value in clinical communication and shared decision making. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Harm reduction in U.S. tobacco control: Constructions in textual news media.

PubMed

Eversman, Michael H

2015-06-01

U.S. tobacco control has long emphasized abstinence, yet quitting smoking is hard and cessation rates low. Tobacco harm reduction alternatives espouse substituting cigarettes with safer nicotine and tobacco products. Policy shifts embracing tobacco harm reduction have increased media attention, yet it remains controversial. Discourse theory posits language as fluid, and socially constructed meaning as neither absolute nor neutral, elevating certain views over others while depicting "discursive struggle" between them. While an abstinence-based framework dominates tobacco policy, discourse theory suggests constructions of nicotine and tobacco use can change, for example by positioning tobacco harm reduction more favorably. Textual discourse analysis was used to explore constructions of tobacco harm reduction in 478 (308 original) U.S. textual news media articles spanning 1996-2014. Using keyword database sampling, retrieved articles were analyzed first as discrete recording units and then to identify emergent thematic content. Constructions of tobacco harm reduction shifted over this time, revealing tension among industry and policy interests through competing definitions of tobacco harm reduction, depictions of its underlying science, and accounts of regulatory matters including tobacco industry support for harm reduction and desired marketing and taxation legislation. Heightened salience surrounding tobacco harm reduction and electronic cigarettes suggests their greater acceptance in U.S. tobacco control. Various media depictions construct harm reduction as a temporary means to cessation, and conflict with other constructions of it that place no subjective value on continued "safer" tobacco/nicotine use. Constructions of science largely obscure claims of the veracity of tobacco harm reduction, with conflict surrounding appropriate public health benchmarks for tobacco policy and health risks of nicotine use. Taxation policies and e-cigarette pricing relative to cigarettes are key for wider adoption, while concerns are raised for whether their availability will increase initiation. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

GENOMIC PREDICTOR OF RESPONSE AND SURVIVAL FOLLOWING TAXANE-ANTHRACYCLINE CHEMOTHERAPY FOR INVASIVE BREAST CANCER

PubMed Central

Hatzis, Christos; Pusztai, Lajos; Valero, Vicente; Booser, Daniel J.; Esserman, Laura; Lluch, Ana; Vidaurre, Tatiana; Holmes, Frankie; Souchon, Eduardo; Martin, Miguel; Cotrina, José; Gomez, Henry; Hubbard, Rebekah; Chacón, J. Ignacio; Ferrer-Lozano, Jaime; Dyer, Richard; Buxton, Meredith; Gong, Yun; Wu, Yun; Ibrahim, Nuhad; Andreopoulou, Eleni; Ueno, Naoto T.; Hunt, Kelly; Yang, Wei; Nazario, Arlene; DeMichele, Angela; O’Shaughnessy, Joyce; Hortobagyi, Gabriel N.; Symmans, W. Fraser

2017-01-01

CONTEXT Accurate prediction of who will (or won’t) have high probability of survival benefit from standard treatments is fundamental for individualized cancer treatment strategies. OBJECTIVE To develop a predictor of response and survival from chemotherapy for newly diagnosed invasive breast cancer. DESIGN Development of different predictive signatures for resistance and response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy (stratified according to estrogen receptor (ER) status) from gene expression microarrays of newly diagnosed breast cancer (310 patients). Then prediction of breast cancer treatment-sensitivity using the combination of signatures for: 1) sensitivity to endocrine therapy, 2) chemo-resistance, and 3) chemo-sensitivity. Independent validation (198 patients) and comparison with other reported genomic predictors of chemotherapy response. SETTING Prospective multicenter study to develop and test genomic predictors for neoadjuvant chemotherapy. PATIENTS Newly diagnosed HER2-negative breast cancer treated with chemotherapy containing sequential taxane and anthracycline-based regimens then endocrine therapy (if hormone receptor-positive). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Distant relapse-free survival (DRFS) if predicted treatment-sensitive and absolute risk reduction (ARR, difference in DRFS of the two predicted groups) at median follow-up (3 years), and their 95% confidence intervals (CI). RESULTS Patients in the independent validation cohort (99% clinical Stage II–III) who were predicted to be treatment-sensitive (28% of total) had DRFS of 92% (CI 85–100) and survival benefit compared to others (absolute risk reduction (ARR) 18%; CI 6–28). Predictions were accurate if breast cancer was ER-positive (30% predicted sensitive, DRFS 97%, CI 91–100; ARR 11%, CI 0.1–21) or ER-negative (26% predicted sensitive, DRFS 83%, CI 68–100; ARR 26%, CI 4–28), and were significant in multivariate analysis after adjusting for relevant clinical-pathologic characteristics. Other genomic predictors showed paradoxically worse survival if predicted to be responsive to chemotherapy. CONCLUSION A genomic predictor combining ER status, predicted chemo-resistance, predicted chemo-sensitivity, and predicted endocrine sensitivity accurately identified patients with survival benefit following taxane-anthracycline chemotherapy. PMID:21558518

Interaction of the renin-angiotensin system and the renal nerves in the regulation of rat kidney function.

PubMed Central

Handa, R K; Johns, E J

1985-01-01

Stimulation of the renal sympathetic nerves in pentobarbitone anaesthetized rats achieved a 13% reduction in renal blood flow, did not change glomerular filtration rate, but reduced urine flow by 37%, absolute sodium excretion by 37%, and fractional sodium excretion by 34%. Following inhibition of converting enzyme with captopril (0.38 mmol kg-1 h-1), similar nerve stimulation reduced both renal blood flow and glomerular filtration rate by 16%, and although urine flow and absolute sodium excretion fell by 32 and 31%, respectively, the 18% fall in fractional sodium excretion was significantly less than that observed in the absence of captopril. Renal nerve stimulation at low levels, which did not change either renal blood flow or glomerular filtration rate, reduced urine flow, and absolute and fractional sodium excretions by 25, 26 and 23%, respectively. In animals receiving captopril at 0.38 mmol kg-1 h-1, low-level nerve stimulation caused small increases in glomerular filtration rate of 7% and urine flow of 12%, but did not change either absolute or fractional sodium excretions. At one-fifth the dose of captopril (0.076 mmol kg-1 h-1), low-level nerve stimulation did not change renal haemodynamics but decreased urine flow, and absolute and fractional sodium excretions by 10, 10 and 8%, respectively. These results showed that angiotensin II production was necessary for regulation of glomerular filtration rate in the face of modest neurally induced reductions in renal blood flow and was compatible with an intra-renal site of action of angiotensin II preferentially at the efferent arteriole. They also demonstrated that in the rat the action of the renal nerves to decrease sodium excretion was dependent on angiotensin II. PMID:3005558

Pre-hospital electrocardiogram triage with telemedicine near halves time to treatment in STEMI: A meta-analysis and meta-regression analysis of non-randomized studies.

PubMed

Brunetti, Natale Daniele; De Gennaro, Luisa; Correale, Michele; Santoro, Francesco; Caldarola, Pasquale; Gaglione, Antonio; Di Biase, Matteo

2017-04-01

A shorter time to treatment has been shown to be associated with lower mortality rates in acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Several strategies have been adopted with the aim to reduce any delay in diagnosis of AMI: pre-hospital triage with telemedicine is one of such strategies. We therefore aimed to measure the real effect of pre-hospital triage with telemedicine in case of AMI in a meta-analysis study. We performed a meta-analysis of non-randomized studies with the aim to quantify the exact reduction of time to treatment achieved by pre-hospital triage with telemedicine. Data were pooled and compared by relative time reduction and 95% C.I.s. A meta-regression analysis was performed in order to find possible predictors of shorter time to treatment. Eleven studies were selected and finally evaluated in the study. The overall relative reduction of time to treatment with pre-hospital triage and telemedicine was -38/-40% (p<0.001). Absolute time reduction was significantly correlated to time to treatment in the control groups (p<0.001), while relative time reduction was independent. A non-significant trend toward shorter relative time reductions was observed over years. Pre-hospital triage with telemedicine is associated with a near halved time to treatment in AMI. The benefit is larger in terms of absolute time to treatment reduction in populations with larger delays to treatment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Serious Hazards of Transfusion (SHOT) haemovigilance and progress is improving transfusion safety

PubMed Central

Bolton-Maggs, Paula H B; Cohen, Hannah

2013-01-01

Summary The Serious Hazards of Transfusion (SHOT) UK confidential haemovigilance reporting scheme began in 1996. Over the 16 years of reporting, the evidence gathered has prompted changes in transfusion practice from the selection and management of donors to changes in hospital practice, particularly better education and training. However, half or more reports relate to errors in the transfusion process despite the introduction of several measures to improve practice. Transfusion in the UK is very safe: 2·9 million components were issued in 2012, and very few deaths are related to transfusion. The risk of death from transfusion as estimated from SHOT data in 2012 is 1 in 322 580 components issued and for major morbidity, 1 in 21 413 components issued; the risk of transfusion-transmitted infection is much lower. Acute transfusion reactions and transfusion-associated circulatory overload carry the highest risk for morbidity and death. The high rate of participation in SHOT by National Health Service organizations, 99·5%, is encouraging. Despite the very useful information gained about transfusion reactions, the main risks remain human factors. The recommendations on reduction of errors through a ‘back to basics’ approach from the first annual SHOT report remain absolutely relevant today. PMID:24032719

Benzodiazepines and antipsychotic medications for treatment of acute cocaine toxicity in animal models--a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Heard, Kennon; Cleveland, Nathan R; Krier, Shay

2011-11-01

There are no controlled human studies to determine the efficacy of benzodiazepines or antipsychotic medications for prevention or treatment of acute cocaine toxicity. The only available controlled data are from animal models and these studies have reported inconsistent benefits. The objective of this study was to quantify the reported efficacy of benzodiazepines and antipsychotic medication for the prevention of mortality due to cocaine poisoning. We conducted a systematic review to identify English language articles describing experiments that compared a benzodiazepine or antipsychotic medication to placebo for the prevention of acute cocaine toxicity in an animal model. We then used these articles in a meta-analysis with a random-effects model to quantify the absolute risk reduction observed in these experiments. We found 10 articles evaluating antipsychotic medications and 15 articles evaluating benzodiazepines. Antipsychotic medications reduced the risk of death by 27% (95% CI, 15.2%-38.7%) compared to placebo and benzodiazepines reduced the risk of death by 52% (42.8%-60.7%) compared to placebo. Both treatments showed evidence of a dose-response effect, and no experiment found a statistically significant increase in risk of death. We conclude that both benzodiazepines and antipsychotic medications are effective for the prevention of lethality from cocaine toxicity in animal models.

The utility of absolute risk prediction using FRAX® and Garvan Fracture Risk Calculator in daily practice.

PubMed

van Geel, Tineke A C M; Eisman, John A; Geusens, Piet P; van den Bergh, Joop P W; Center, Jacqueline R; Dinant, Geert-Jan

2014-02-01

There are two commonly used fracture risk prediction tools FRAX(®) and Garvan Fracture Risk Calculator (GARVAN-FRC). The objective of this study was to investigate the utility of these tools in daily practice. A prospective population-based 5-year follow-up study was conducted in ten general practice centres in the Netherlands. For the analyses, the FRAX(®) and GARVAN-FRC 10-year absolute risks (FRAX(®) does not have 5-year risk prediction) for all fractures were used. Among 506 postmenopausal women aged ≥60 years (mean age: 67.8±5.8 years), 48 (9.5%) sustained a fracture during follow-up. Both tools, using BMD values, distinguish between women who did and did not fracture (10.2% vs. 6.8%, respectively for FRAX(®) and 32.4% vs. 39.1%, respectively for GARVAN-FRC, p<0.0001) at group level. However, only 8.9% of those who sustained a fracture had an estimated fracture risk ≥20% using FRAX(®) compared with 53.3% using GARVAN-FRC. Although both underestimated the observed fracture risk, the GARVAN-FRC performed significantly better for women who sustained a fracture (higher sensitivity) and FRAX(®) for women who did not sustain a fracture (higher specificity). Similar results were obtained using age related cut off points. The discriminant value of both models is at least as good as models used in other medical conditions; hence they can be used to communicate the fracture risk to patients. However, given differences in the estimated risks between FRAX(®) and GARVAN-FRC, the significance of the absolute risk must be related to country-specific recommended intervention thresholds to inform the patient. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

A nationwide study of ovarian serous borderline tumors in Denmark 1978-2002. Risk of recurrence, and development of ovarian serous carcinoma.

PubMed

Hannibal, Charlotte Gerd; Vang, Russell; Junge, Jette; Frederiksen, Kirsten; Kurman, Robert J; Kjaer, Susanne K

2017-01-01

Absolute risk and risk factors for recurrence and ovarian serous carcinoma following ovarian serous borderline tumors (SBTs) is not well-established. We included all women with SBTs in Denmark, 1978-2002. Diagnoses were confirmed by centralized pathology review and classified as atypical proliferative serous tumor (APST) or noninvasive low-grade serous carcinoma (LGSC). Implants were classified as noninvasive or invasive. Medical records were collected and reviewed, and follow-up was obtained. Subsequent diagnoses were also confirmed by centralized pathology review. We examined absolute risk and risk factors for recurrent APST and serous carcinoma using Cox regression. The absolute serous carcinoma risk after, respectively, 5 and 20years was 5.0% and 13.9% for noninvasive LGSC, and 0.9% and 3.7% for APST. Serous carcinoma risk was significantly higher following noninvasive LGSC compared with APST among stage I patients/patients without implants (HR=5.3; 95% CI: 1.7-16.3), whereas no significant association with tumor type was found in advanced stage patients/patients with implants. Advanced stage - notably invasive implants - bilaterality, surface involvement, and residual disease increased serous carcinoma risk. However, women with stage I APST also had a higher risk than the general population. This largest population-based cohort of verified SBTs revealed that women with noninvasive LGSC are significantly more likely to develop serous carcinoma than women with APST, which could not entirely be explained by invasive implants. Although invasive implants was a strong risk factor for serous carcinoma, even women with stage I APST were at increased risk compared with the general population. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

How to prevent overdiagnosis.

PubMed

Chiolero, Arnaud; Paccaud, Fred; Aujesky, Drahomir; Santschi, Valérie; Rodondi, Nicolas

2015-01-01

Overdiagnosis is the diagnosis of an abnormality that is not associated with a substantial health hazard and that patients have no benefit to be aware of. It is neither a misdiagnosis (diagnostic error), nor a false positive result (positive test in the absence of a real abnormality). It mainly results from screening, use of increasingly sensitive diagnostic tests, incidental findings on routine examinations, and widening diagnostic criteria to define a condition requiring an intervention. The blurring boundaries between risk and disease, physicians' fear of missing a diagnosis and patients' need for reassurance are further causes of overdiagnosis. Overdiagnosis often implies procedures to confirm or exclude the presence of the condition and is by definition associated with useless treatments and interventions, generating harm and costs without any benefit. Overdiagnosis also diverts healthcare professionals from caring about other health issues. Preventing overdiagnosis requires increasing awareness of healthcare professionals and patients about its occurrence, the avoidance of unnecessary and untargeted diagnostic tests, and the avoidance of screening without demonstrated benefits. Furthermore, accounting systematically for the harms and benefits of screening and diagnostic tests and determining risk factor thresholds based on the expected absolute risk reduction would also help prevent overdiagnosis.

The role of nitrates in the prevention of preeclampsia: an update.

PubMed

Kalidindi, Madhavi; Velauthar, Luxmi; Khan, Khalid; Aquilina, Joseph

2012-12-01

Defective nitric oxide synthesis and nitric oxide-mediated vasodilatation is widely documented in the pathophysiology of preeclampsia, a leading cause of maternal and perinatal morbidity and mortality worldwide. Several studies demonstrated the beneficial role of nitric oxide agents, especially glyceryl trinitrate and L-arginine in reducing the blood pressure and improving the uteroplacental blood flow velocities. However, there is insufficient evidence on the efficacy and safety of these agents in the prevention of preeclampsia and its complications, as there are very few randomized controlled trials with small number of women. The aim of this review is to summarize and evaluate the role of nitrates in the prevention of preeclampsia based on the available evidence in the literature till date and suggestions for future research. Supplementation with L-arginine and antioxidant vitamins reduced the incidence of preeclampsia in women at high risk of preeclampsia [P < 0.001, absolute risk reduction 0.17 (confidence interval 0.12-0.21)]. On the basis of the recent evidence, nitric oxide agents may be beneficial in the prevention of preeclampsia. Randomized controlled trials initiated in the first trimester and using long-acting nitrates are needed in high-risk women to validate these findings.

Catalan speakers' perception of word stress in unaccented contexts.

PubMed

Ortega-Llebaria, Marta; del Mar Vanrell, Maria; Prieto, Pilar

2010-01-01

In unaccented contexts, formant frequency differences related to vowel reduction constitute a consistent cue to word stress in English, whereas in languages such as Spanish that have no systematic vowel reduction, stress perception is based on duration and intensity cues. This article examines the perception of word stress by speakers of Central Catalan, in which, due to its vowel reduction patterns, words either alternate stressed open vowels with unstressed mid-central vowels as in English or contain no vowel quality cues to stress, as in Spanish. Results show that Catalan listeners perceive stress based mainly on duration cues in both word types. Other cues pattern together with duration to make stress perception more robust. However, no single cue is absolutely necessary and trading effects compensate for a lack of differentiation in one dimension by changes in another dimension. In particular, speakers identify longer mid-central vowels as more stressed than shorter open vowels. These results and those obtained in other stress-accent languages provide cumulative evidence that word stress is perceived independently of pitch accents by relying on a set of cues with trading effects so that no single cue, including formant frequency differences related to vowel reduction, is absolutely necessary for stress perception.

Applying 'evidence-based medicine' theory to interventional radiology. Part 2: a spreadsheet for swift assessment of procedural benefit and harm.

PubMed

Maceneaney, P M; Malone, D E

2000-12-01

To design a spreadsheet program to analyse interventional radiology (IR) data rapidly produced in local research or reported in the literature using 'evidence-based medicine' (EBM) parameters of treatment benefit and harm. Microsoft Excel(TM)was used. The spreadsheet consists of three worksheets. The first shows the 'Levels of Evidence and Grades of Recommendations' that can be assigned to therapeutic studies as defined by the Oxford Centre for EBM. The second and third worksheets facilitate the EBM assessment of therapeutic benefit and harm. Validity criteria are described. These include the assessment of the adequacy of sample size in the detection of possible procedural complications. A contingency (2 x 2) table for raw data on comparative outcomes in treated patients and controls has been incorporated. Formulae for EBM calculations are related to these numerators and denominators in the spreadsheet. The parameters calculated are benefit - relative risk reduction, absolute risk reduction, number needed to treat (NNT). Harm - relative risk, relative odds, number needed to harm (NNH). Ninety-five per cent confidence intervals are calculated for all these indices. The results change automatically when the data in the therapeutic outcome cells are changed. A final section allows the user to correct the NNT or NNH in their application to individual patients. This spreadsheet can be used on desktop and palmtop computers. The MS Excel(TM)version can be downloaded via the Internet from the URL ftp://radiography.com/pub/TxHarm00.xls. A spreadsheet is useful for the rapid analysis of the clinical benefit and harm from IR procedures.

Patent Foramen Ovale Closure in the Setting of Cryptogenic Stroke: A Meta-Analysis of Five Randomized Trials.

PubMed

Garg, Lohit; Haleem, Affan; Varade, Shweta; Sivakumar, Keithan; Shah, Mahek; Patel, Brijesh; Agarwal, Manyoo; Agrawal, Sahil; Leary, Megan; Kluck, Bryan

2018-05-24

The clinical benefit of patent foramen ovale (PFO) closure after cryptogenic stroke has been a topic of debate for decades. Recently, 3 randomized controlled trials of PFO closure in patients with cryptogenic stroke demonstrated a significantly reduced risk of recurrent stroke compared with standard medical therapy alone. This meta-analysis was performed to clarify the efficacy of PFO closure for future stroke prevention in this population. A systematic literature search was undertaken. Published pooled data from 5 large randomized clinical trials (CLOSE, RESPECT, Gore REDUCE, CLOSURE I, and PC) were combined and then subsequently analyzed. Enrolled patients with cryptogenic stroke were assigned to receive standard medical care or to undergo endovascular PFO closure, with a primary outcome of reduction in stroke recurrence rate. Secondary outcomes included rates of transient ischemic attack (TIA), composite outcome of stroke, TIA, and death from all causes, and rates of atrial fibrillation events. We analyzed data for 3412 patients. Transcatheter PFO closure resulted in a statistically significant reduced rate of recurrent stroke, compared with medication alone. Patients undergoing closure were 58% less likely to have another stroke. The number needed to treat with PFO closure to reduce recurrent stroke for 1 patient was 40. Endovascular PFO closure was associated with a reduced risk of recurrent stroke in patients with a prior cryptogenic cerebral infarct. Although the absolute stroke reduction was small, these findings are clinically significant, given the young age of this patient population and the patients' lifetime risk of recurrent stroke. Copyright © 2018 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk Assessment of Physiological Effects of Atmospheric Composition and Pressure in Constellation Vehicles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Scheuring, Richard A.; Conkin, Johnny; Jones, Jeffrey A.; Gernhardt, Michael L.

2007-01-01

To reduce denitrogenation time to prevent decompression sickness to support frequent extravehicular activities on the Moon, and to limit the risk of fire, a hypobaric (P(sub B) = 414 mmHg) and mildly hypoxic (ppO2 = 132 mmHg, 32% O2 - 68% N2) living environment is being considered during lunar missions for the Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) and Lunar Surface Access Module (LSAM). If the vehicular ppO2 is acutely changed from 145-178 mmHg at standard vehicular operating pressure to less than 125 mmHg at desired lunar surface outpost operating pressures, there is the possibility that some crewmembers may develop symptoms of Acute Mountain Sickness (AMS). The signs and symptoms of AMS (headache plus nausea, dizziness, fatigue, or sleeplessness), could impact crew health and performance on lunar surface missions. Methods: An exhaustive literature review on the topic of the physiological effects of reduced ppO2 and absolute pressure as may contribute to the development of hypoxia and altitude symptoms or AMS. The results of the nine most rigorous studies were collated, analyzed and contents on the physiological concerns associated with hypobaric operations, AMS and hypoxia symptoms summarized. Results: Although space vehicles have operated in hypobaric conditions previously, they have not operated in a mildly hypoxic ppO2. There is evidence for an absolute pressure effect per se on AMS, such that the higher the altitude for a given hypoxic alveolar O2 partial pressure (P(sub A)O2), the greater the likelihood of an AMS response. About 25% of adults are likely to experience mild AMS near 2,000 m (xxx mmHg) altitude following a rapid ascent from sea level while breathing air (6,500 feet, acute (P(sub A)O2) = 75 mmHg). The operational experience with the Shuttle staged denitrogenation protocol at 528 mmHg (3,048 m) while breathing 26.5% O2 (acute (P(sub A)O2) = 85 mmHg) in astronauts adapting to microgravity suggests a similar likely experience in the proposed CEV environment. Conclusions: We feel that the slightly elevated risk of AMS with the recommended exploration atmospheric parameters is offset by the DCS risk reduction and improved operational efficiency offered by the hypobaric lunar surface vehicular pressure. We believe the risk of mild AMS is greater given a (P(sub A)O2) of 77 mmHg at 4,876 m altitude while breathing 32% O2 than at 1,828 m altitude while breathing 21% O2. Only susceptible astronauts would develop mild and transient AMS with prolonged exposure to 414 mmHg (4,876 m) while breathing 32% O2 (acute (P(sub A)O2) = 77 mmHg). So the following may be employed for operational risk reduction: 1) develop procedures to increase P(sub B) as needed in the CEV, and use a gradual or staged reduction in cabin pressure during lunar outbound; 2) train crews for symptoms of hypoxia, to allow early recognition and consider pre-adaptation of crews to a hypoxic environment prior to launch, 3) consider prophylactic acetazolamide for acute pressure changes and be prepared to treat any AMS associated symptoms early with both carbonic anhydrase inhibitors and supplemental oxygen.

Quantitative EEG correlations with brain glucose metabolic rate during anesthesia in volunteers.

PubMed

Alkire, M T

1998-08-01

To help elucidate the relationship between anesthetic-induced changes in the electroencephalogram (EEG) and the concurrent cerebral metabolic changes caused by anesthesia, positron emission tomography data of cerebral metabolism obtained in volunteers during anesthesia were correlated retrospectively with various concurrently measured EEG descriptors. Volunteers underwent functional brain imaging using the 18fluorodeoxyglucose technique; one scan always assessed awake-baseline cerebral metabolism (n = 7), and the other scans assessed metabolism during propofol sedation (n = 4), propofol anesthesia (n = 4), or isoflurane anesthesia (n = 5). The EEG was recorded continuously during metabolism assessment using a frontal-mastoid montage. Power spectrum variables, median frequency, 95% spectral edge, and bispectral index (BIS) values subsequently were correlated with the percentage of absolute cerebral metabolic reduction (PACMR) of glucose utilization caused by anesthesia. The percentage of absolute cerebral metabolic reduction, evident during anesthesia, trended median frequency (r = -0.46, P = 0.11), and the spectral edge (r = -0.52, P = 0.07), and correlated with anesthetic type (r = -0.70, P < 0.05), relative beta power (r = -0.60, P < 0.05), total power (r = 0.71,P < 0.01), and bispectral index (r = -0.81,P < 0.001). After controlling for anesthetic type, only bispectral index (r = 0.40, P = 0.08) and alpha power (r = 0.37, P = 0.10) approached significance for explaining residual percentage of absolute cerebral metabolic reduction prediction error. Some EEG descriptors correlated linearly with the magnitude of the cerebral metabolic reduction caused by propofol and isoflurane anesthesia. These data suggest that a physiologic link exists between the EEG and cerebral metabolism during anesthesia that is mathematically quantifiable.

Against Laplacian Reduction of Newtonian Mass to Spatiotemporal Quantities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martens, Niels C. M.

2018-05-01

Laplace wondered about the minimal choice of initial variables and parameters corresponding to a well-posed initial value problem. Discussions of Laplace's problem in the literature have focused on choosing between spatiotemporal variables relative to absolute space (i.e. substantivalism) or merely relative to other material bodies (i.e. relationalism) and between absolute masses (i.e. absolutism) or merely mass ratios (i.e. comparativism). This paper extends these discussions of Laplace's problem, in the context of Newtonian Gravity, by asking whether mass needs to be included in the initial state at all, or whether a purely spatiotemporal initial state suffices. It is argued that mass indeed needs to be included; removing mass from the initial state drastically reduces the predictive and explanatory power of Newtonian Gravity.

Against Laplacian Reduction of Newtonian Mass to Spatiotemporal Quantities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martens, Niels C. M.

2018-03-01

Laplace wondered about the minimal choice of initial variables and parameters corresponding to a well-posed initial value problem. Discussions of Laplace's problem in the literature have focused on choosing between spatiotemporal variables relative to absolute space (i.e. substantivalism) or merely relative to other material bodies (i.e. relationalism) and between absolute masses (i.e. absolutism) or merely mass ratios (i.e. comparativism). This paper extends these discussions of Laplace's problem, in the context of Newtonian Gravity, by asking whether mass needs to be included in the initial state at all, or whether a purely spatiotemporal initial state suffices. It is argued that mass indeed needs to be included; removing mass from the initial state drastically reduces the predictive and explanatory power of Newtonian Gravity.

COOL AMI EU pilot trial: a multicentre, prospective, randomised controlled trial to assess cooling as an adjunctive therapy to percutaneous intervention in patients with acute myocardial infarction.

PubMed

Noc, Marko; Erlinge, David; Neskovic, Aleksandar N; Kafedzic, Srdjan; Merkely, Béla; Zima, Endre; Fister, Misa; Petrović, Milovan; Čanković, Milenko; Veress, Gábor; Laanmets, Peep; Pern, Teele; Vukcevic, Vladan; Dedovic, Vladimir; Średniawa, Beata; Świątkowski, Andrzej; Keeble, Thomas R; Davies, John R; Warenits, Alexandra-Maria; Olivecrona, Göran; Peruga, Jan Zbigniew; Ciszewski, Michal; Horvath, Ivan; Edes, Istvan; Nagy, Gergely Gyorgy; Aradi, Daniel; Holzer, Michael

2017-08-04

We aimed to investigate the rapid induction of therapeutic hypothermia using the ZOLL Proteus Intravascular Temperature Management System in patients with anterior ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) without cardiac arrest. A total of 50 patients were randomised; 22 patients (88%; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 69-97%) in the hypothermia group and 23 patients (92%; 95% CI: 74-99) in the control group completed cardiac magnetic resonance imaging at four to six days and 30-day follow-up. Intravascular temperature at coronary guidewire crossing after 20.5 minutes of endovascular cooling decreased to 33.6°C (range 31.9-35.5°C). There was a 17-minute (95% CI: 4.6-29.8 min) cooling-related delay to reperfusion. In "per protocol" analysis, median infarct size/left ventricular mass was 16.7% in the hypothermia group versus 23.8% in the control group (absolute reduction 7.1%, relative reduction 30%; p=0.31) and median left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) was 42% in the hypothermia group and 40% in the control group (absolute reduction 2.4%, relative reduction 6%; p=0.36). Except for self-terminating paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (32% versus 8%; p=0.074), there was no excess of adverse events in the hypothermia group. We rapidly and safely cooled patients with anterior STEMI to 33.6°C at the time of coronary guidewire crossing. This is ≥1.1°C lower than in previous cooling studies. Except for self-terminating atrial fibrillation, there was no excess of adverse events and no clinically important cooling-related delay to reperfusion. A statistically non-significant numerical 7.1% absolute and 30% relative reduction in infarct size warrants a pivotal trial powered for efficacy.

Acupuncture for treating fibromyalgia

PubMed Central

Deare, John C; Zheng, Zhen; Xue, Charlie CL; Liu, Jian Ping; Shang, Jingsheng; Scott, Sean W; Littlejohn, Geoff

2014-01-01

Background One in five fibromyalgia sufferers use acupuncture treatment within two years of diagnosis. Objectives To examine the benefits and safety of acupuncture treatment for fibromyalgia. Search methods We searched CENTRAL, PubMed, EMBASE, CINAHL, National Research Register, HSR Project and Current Contents, as well as the Chinese databases VIP and Wangfang to January 2012 with no language restrictions. Selection criteria Randomised and quasi-randomised studies evaluating any type of invasive acupuncture for fibromyalgia diagnosed according to the American College of Rheumatology (ACR) criteria, and reporting any main outcome: pain, physical function, fatigue, sleep, total well-being, stiffness and adverse events. Data collection and analysis Two author pairs selected trials, extracted data and assessed risk of bias. Treatment effects were reported as standardised mean differences (SMD) and 95%confidence intervals (CI) for continuous outcomes using different measurement tools (pain, physical function, fatigue, sleep, total well-being and stiffness) and risk ratio (RR) and 95% CI for dichotomous outcomes (adverse events).We pooled data using the random-effects model. Main results Nine trials (395 participants) were included. All studies except one were at low risk of selection bias; five were at risk of selective reporting bias (favouring either treatment group); two were subject to attrition bias (favouring acupuncture); three were subject to performance bias (favouring acupuncture) and one to detection bias (favouring acupuncture). Three studies utilised electro-acupuncture (EA) with the remainder using manual acupuncture (MA) without electrical stimulation. All studies used ’formula acupuncture’ except for one, which used trigger points. Low quality evidence from one study (13 participants) showed EA improved symptoms with no adverse events at one month following treatment. Mean pain in the non-treatment control group was 70 points on a 100 point scale; EA reduced pain by a mean of 22 points (95% confidence interval (CI) 4 to 41), or 22% absolute improvement. Control group global well-being was 66.5 points on a 100 point scale; EA improved well-being by a mean of 15 points (95% CI 5 to 26 points). Control group stiffness was 4.8 points on a 0 to 10 point; EA reduced stiffness by a mean of 0.9 points (95% CI 0.1 to 2 points; absolute reduction 9%, 95% CI 4% to 16%). Fatigue was 4.5 points (10 point scale) without treatment; EA reduced fatigue by a mean of 1 point (95% CI 0.22 to 2 points), absolute reduction 11% (2% to 20%). There was no difference in sleep quality (MD 0.4 points, 95% CI −1 to 0.21 points, 10 point scale), and physical function was not reported. Moderate quality evidence from six studies (286 participants) indicated that acupuncture (EA or MA) was no better than sham acupuncture, except for less stiffness at one month. Subgroup analysis of two studies (104 participants) indicated benefits of EA. Mean pain was 70 points on 0 to 100 point scale with sham treatment; EA reduced pain by 13% (5% to 22%); (SMD −0.63, 95% CI −1.02 to −0.23). Global well-being was 5.2 points on a 10 point scale with sham treatment; EA improved well-being: SMD 0.65, 95% CI 0.26 to 1.05; absolute improvement 11% (4% to 17%). EA improved sleep, from 3 points on a 0 to 10 point scale in the sham group: SMD 0.40 (95% CI 0.01 to 0.79); absolute improvement 8% (0.2% to 16%). Low-quality evidence from one study suggested that MA group resulted in poorer physical function: mean function in the sham group was 28 points (100 point scale); treatment worsened function by a mean of 6 points (95% CI −10.9 to −0.7). Low-quality evidence from three trials (289 participants) suggested no difference in adverse events between real (9%) and sham acupuncture (35%); RR 0.44 (95% CI 0.12 to 1.63). Moderate quality evidence from one study (58 participants) found that compared with standard therapy alone (antidepressants and exercise), adjunct acupuncture therapy reduced pain at one month after treatment: mean pain was 8 points on a 0 to 10 point scale in the standard therapy group; treatment reduced pain by 3 points (95% CI −3.9 to −2.1), an absolute reduction of 30% (21% to 39%). Two people treated with acupuncture reported adverse events; there were none in the control group (RR 3.57; 95% CI 0.18 to 71.21). Global well-being, sleep, fatigue and stiffness were not reported. Physical function data were not usable. Low quality evidence from one study (38 participants) showed a short-term benefit of acupuncture over antidepressants in pain relief: mean pain was 29 points (0 to 100 point scale) in the antidepressant group; acupuncture reduced pain by 17 points (95% CI −24.1 to −10.5). Other outcomes or adverse events were not reported. Moderate-quality evidence from one study (41 participants) indicated that deep needling with or without deqi did not differ in pain, fatigue, function or adverse events. Other outcomes were not reported. Four studies reported no differences between acupuncture and control or other treatments described at six to seven months follow-up. No serious adverse events were reported, but there were insufficient adverse events to be certain of the risks. Authors’ conclusions There is low tomoderate-level evidence that compared with no treatment and standard therapy, acupuncture improves pain and stiffness in people with fibromyalgia. There is moderate-level evidence that the effect of acupuncture does not differ from sham acupuncture in reducing pain or fatigue, or improving sleep or global well-being. EA is probably better than MA for pain and stiffness reduction and improvement of global well-being, sleep and fatigue. The effect lasts up to one month, but is not maintained at six months follow-up. MA probably does not improve pain or physical functioning. Acupuncture appears safe. People with fibromyalgia may consider using EA alone or with exercise and medication. The small sample size, scarcity of studies for each comparison, lack of an ideal sham acupuncture weaken the level of evidence and its clinical implications. Larger studies are warranted. PMID:23728665

12 CFR 324.152 - Simple risk weight approach (SRWA).

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... (that is, between zero and -1), then E equals the absolute value of RVC. If RVC is negative and less... the lowest applicable risk weight in this section. (1) Zero percent risk weight equity exposures. An....131(d)(2) is assigned a zero percent risk weight. (2) 20 percent risk weight equity exposures. An...

BCRA 2.0 R Package

Cancer.gov

BCRA is an R package that projects absolute risk of invasive breast cancer according to NCI’s Breast Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (BCRAT) algorithm for specified race/ethnic groups and age intervals.

Early Glycemic Control and Magnitude of HbA1c Reduction Predict Cardiovascular Events and Mortality: Population-Based Cohort Study of 24,752 Metformin Initiators.

PubMed

Svensson, Elisabeth; Baggesen, Lisbeth M; Johnsen, Søren P; Pedersen, Lars; Nørrelund, Helene; Buhl, Esben S; Haase, Christiane L; Thomsen, Reimar W

2017-06-01

We investigated the association of early achieved HbA 1c level and magnitude of HbA 1c reduction with subsequent risk of cardiovascular events or death in patients with type 2 diabetes who initiate metformin. This was a population-based cohort study including all metformin initiators with HbA 1c tests in Northern Denmark, 2000-2012. Six months after metformin initiation, we classified patients by HbA 1c achieved (<6.5% or higher) and by magnitude of HbA 1c change from the pretreatment baseline. We used Cox regression to examine subsequent rates of acute myocardial infarction, stroke, or death, controlling for baseline HbA 1c and other confounding factors. We included 24,752 metformin initiators (median age 62.5 years, 55% males) with a median follow-up of 2.6 years. The risk of a combined outcome event gradually increased with rising levels of HbA 1c achieved compared with a target HbA 1c of <6.5%: adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 1.18 (95% CI 1.07-1.30) for 6.5-6.99%, HR 1.23 (1.09-1.40) for 7.0-7.49%, HR 1.34 (1.14-1.57) for 7.5-7.99%, and HR 1.59 (1.37-1.84) for ≥8%. Results were consistent for individual outcome events and robust by age-group and other patient characteristics. A large absolute HbA 1c reduction from baseline also predicted outcome: adjusted HR 0.80 (0.65-0.97) for Δ = -4, HR 0.98 (0.80-1.20) for Δ = -3, HR 0.92 (0.78-1.08) for Δ = -2, and HR 0.99 (0.89-1.10) for Δ = -1 compared with no HbA 1c change (Δ = 0). A large initial HbA 1c reduction and achievement of low HbA 1c levels within 6 months after metformin initiation are associated with a lower risk of cardiovascular events and death in patients with type 2 diabetes. © 2017 by the American Diabetes Association.

Risk of Cerebrovascular Events in 178 962 Five-Year Survivors of Cancer Diagnosed at 15 to 39 Years of Age: The TYACSS (Teenage and Young Adult Cancer Survivor Study).

PubMed

Bright, Chloe J; Hawkins, Mike M; Guha, Joyeeta; Henson, Katherine E; Winter, David L; Kelly, Julie S; Feltbower, Richard G; Hall, Marlous; Cutter, David J; Edgar, Angela B; Frobisher, Clare; Reulen, Raoul C

2017-03-28

Survivors of teenage and young adult cancer are at risk of cerebrovascular events, but the magnitude of and extent to which this risk varies by cancer type, decade of diagnosis, age at diagnosis, and attained age remains uncertain. This is the largest-ever cohort study to evaluate the risks of hospitalization for a cerebrovascular event among long-term survivors of teenage and young adult cancer. The population-based TYACSS (Teenage and Young Adult Cancer Survivor Study) (N=178,962) was linked to Hospital Episode Statistics data for England to investigate the risks of hospitalization for a cerebrovascular event among 5-year survivors of cancer diagnosed when 15 to 39 years of age. Observed numbers of first hospitalizations for cerebrovascular events were compared with that expected from the general population using standardized hospitalization ratios (SHRs) and absolute excess risks per 10 000 person-years. Cumulative incidence was calculated with death considered a competing risk. Overall, 2782 cancer survivors were hospitalized for a cerebrovascular event-40% higher than expected (SHR=1.4, 95% confidence interval, 1.3-1.4). Survivors of central nervous system (CNS) tumors (SHR=4.6, 95% confidence interval, 4.3-5.0), head and neck tumors (SHR=2.6, 95% confidence interval, 2.2-3.1), and leukemia (SHR=2.5, 95% confidence interval, 1.9-3.1) were at greatest risk. Males had significantly higher absolute excess risks than females (absolute excess risks =7 versus 3), especially among head and neck tumor survivors (absolute excess risks =30 versus 11). By 60 years of age, 9%, 6%, and 5% of CNS tumor, head and neck tumor, and leukemia survivors, respectively, had been hospitalized for a cerebrovascular event. Beyond 60 years of age, every year, 0.4% of CNS tumor survivors were hospitalized for a cerebral infarction (versus 0.1% expected), whereas at any age, every year, 0.2% of head and neck tumor survivors were hospitalized for a cerebral infarction (versus 0.06% expected). Survivors of a CNS tumor, head and neck tumor, and leukemia are particularly at risk of hospitalization for a cerebrovascular event. The excess risk of cerebral infarction among CNS tumor survivors increases with attained age. For head and neck tumor survivors, this excess risk remains high across all ages. These groups of survivors, particularly males, should be considered for surveillance of cerebrovascular risk factors and potential pharmacological interventions for cerebral infarction prevention. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Simulating the Impact of Improved Cardiovascular Risk Interventions on Clinical and Economic Outcomes in Russia

PubMed Central

Shum, Kenny; Alperin, Peter; Shalnova, Svetlana; Boytsov, Sergey; Kontsevaya, Anna; Vigdorchik, Alexey; Guetz, Adam; Eriksson, Jennifer; Hughes, David

2014-01-01

Objectives Russia faces a high burden of cardiovascular disease. Prevalence of all cardiovascular risk factors, especially hypertension, is high. Elevated blood pressure is generally poorly controlled and medication usage is suboptimal. With a disease-model simulation, we forecast how various treatment programs aimed at increasing blood pressure control would affect cardiovascular outcomes. In addition, we investigated what additional benefit adding lipid control and smoking cessation to blood pressure control would generate in terms of reduced cardiovascular events. Finally, we estimated the direct health care costs saved by treating fewer cardiovascular events. Methods The Archimedes Model, a detailed computer model of human physiology, disease progression, and health care delivery was adapted to the Russian setting. Intervention scenarios of achieving systolic blood pressure control rates (defined as systolic blood pressure <140 mmHg) of 40% and 60% were simulated by modifying adherence rates of an antihypertensive medication combination and compared with current care (23.9% blood pressure control rate). Outcomes of major adverse cardiovascular events; cerebrovascular event (stroke), myocardial infarction, and cardiovascular death over a 10-year time horizon were reported. Direct health care costs of strokes and myocardial infarctions were derived from official Russian statistics and tariff lists. Results To achieve systolic blood pressure control rates of 40% and 60%, adherence rates to the antihypertensive treatment program were 29.4% and 65.9%. Cardiovascular death relative risk reductions were 13.2%, and 29.6%, respectively. For the current estimated 43,855,000-person Russian hypertensive population, each control-rate scenario resulted in an absolute reduction of 1.0 million and 2.4 million cardiovascular deaths, and a reduction of 1.2 million and 2.7 million stroke/myocardial infarction diagnoses, respectively. Averted direct costs from current care levels ($7.6 billion [in United States dollars]) were $1.1 billion and $2.6 billion, respectively. PMID:25141122

Absolute Power Spectral Density Changes in the Magnetoencephalographic Activity During the Transition from Childhood to Adulthood.

PubMed

Gómez, Carlos M; Rodríguez-Martínez, Elena I; Fernández, Alberto; Maestú, Fernando; Poza, Jesús; Gómez, Carlos

2017-01-01

The aim of this study was to define the pattern of reduction in absolute power spectral density (PSD) of magnetoencephalography (MEG) signals throughout development. Specifically, we wanted to explore whether the human skull's high permeability for electromagnetic fields would allow us to question whether the pattern of absolute PSD reduction observed in the human electroencephalogram is due to an increase in the skull's resistive properties with age. Furthermore, the topography of the MEG signals during maturation was explored, providing additional insights about the areas and brain rhythms related to late maturation in the human brain. To attain these goals, spontaneous MEG activity was recorded from 148 sensors in a sample of 59 subjects divided into three age groups: children/adolescents (7-14 years), young adults (17-20 years) and adults (21-26 years). Statistical testing was carried out by means of an analysis of variance (ANOVA), with "age group" as between-subject factor and "sensor group" as within-subject factor. Additionally, correlations of absolute PSD with age were computed to assess the influence of age on the spectral content of MEG signals. Results showed a broadband PSD decrease in frontal areas, which suggests the late maturation of this region, but also a mild increase in high frequency PSD with age in posterior areas. These findings suggest that the intensity of the neural sources during spontaneous brain activity decreases with age, which may be related to synaptic pruning.

Outcome after surgical treatment of chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension: dealing with different patient subsets. A single-centre experience.

PubMed

Nierlich, Patrick; Hold, Alina; Ristl, Robin

2016-11-01

Pulmonary endarterectomy (PEA) is the only curative treatment for patients suffering from chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension (CTEPH). In patients with a pulmonary vascular resistance (PVR) higher than 1000 dynes s cm -5 , this procedure is linked with an increased perioperative risk. We compare the outcomes of patients with moderate to severe versus extremely elevated PVR. Between 1992 and 2013, 214 patients underwent PEA for CTEPH at our institution. All patient data were entered in a prospective database. We performed a retrospective analysis of our total patient collective and of subgroups defined by: PVR ≤ 800, PVR > 800 < 1200 and PVR ≥ 1200 dynes s cm -5 , to assess the therapeutic success regarding pulmonary pressure reduction, functional outcome and risk factors for perioperative mortality. There was a significant reduction in mean pulmonary pressure (from 51 to 33 mmHg), PVR (860 to 337 dynes s cm -5 ) and an increase in cardiac index (CI, 2.3 to 2.8 l/min/m 2 ) in the whole group and in each subgroup. At 1-year follow-up, 91.2% of patients were alive and haemodynamic improvements were sustained in the majority of patients. Age, a PVR of higher than 800 dynes, NYHA functional class IV and a CI lower than 2.2 l/min/m 2 were significant predictors of in-hospital mortality. The median duration of surgery was 360 min, cardiopulmonary bypass 230 min, aortic cross-clamp time 150 min and circulatory arrest 34 min. In total, there were 14 in-hospital deaths (6.5%) mainly due to right heart failure (n = 7) and multiorgan failure (n = 3). Bleeding, stroke, sepsis and pneumonia led to death in 1 patient each. Mortality was significantly higher in the two groups with PVR > 800, but absolute pressure reduction was also higher in these groups. The 1-year survival rate was 91.2%. Despite the increased perioperative risk and mortality, PEA should not be denied to patients with extremely elevated PVR but clear indication for surgery. Keeping increased perioperative risk and mortality in mind, significant pressure reduction and improved functional outcome can be achieved in the majority of these patients. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery. All rights reserved.

The Discipline of Asset Allocation.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Petzel, Todd E.

2000-01-01

Discussion of asset allocation for college/university endowment funds focuses on three levels of risk: (1) the absolute risk of the portfolio (usually leading to asset diversification); (2) the benchmark risk (usually comparison with peer institutions; and (3) personal career risk (which may incline managers toward maximizing short-term returns,…

Guidance, Navigation, and Control System Design in a Mass Reduction Exercise

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crain, Timothy; Begly, Michael; Jackson, Mark; Broome, Joel

2008-01-01

Early Orion GN&C system designs optimized for robustness, simplicity, and utilization of commercially available components. During the System Definition Review (SDR), all subsystems on Orion were asked to re-optimize with component mass and steady state power as primary design metrics. The objective was to create a mass reserve in the Orion point of departure vehicle design prior to beginning the PDR analysis cycle. The Orion GN&C subsystem team transitioned from a philosophy of absolute 2 fault tolerance for crew safety and 1 fault tolerance for mission success to an approach of 1 fault tolerance for crew safety and risk based redundancy to meet probability allocations of loss of mission and loss of crew. This paper will discuss the analyses, rationale, and end results of this activity regarding Orion navigation sensor hardware, control effectors, and trajectory design.

Serum apolipoprotein A-1 quantification by LC–MS with a SILAC internal standard reveals reduced levels in smokers

PubMed Central

Wang, Qingqing; Zhang, Suhong; Guo, Lili; Busch, Christine M; Jian, Wenying; Weng, Naidong; Snyder, Nathaniel W; Rangiah, Kannan; Mesaros, Clementina; Blair, Ian A

2015-01-01

Background: Absolute quantification of protein biomarkers such as serum apolipoprotein A1 by both immunoassays and LC–MS can provide misleading results. Results: Recombinant ApoA-1 internal standard was prepared using stable isotope labeling by amino acids in cell culture with [13C615N2]-lysine and [13C915N1]-tyrosine in human cells. A stable isotope dilution LC–MS method for serum ApoA-1 was validated and levels analyzed for 50 nonsmokers and 50 smokers. Conclusion: The concentration of ApoA-1 in nonsmokers was 169.4 mg/dl with an 18.4% reduction to 138.2 mg/dl in smokers. The validated assay will have clinical utility for assessing effects of smoking cessation and therapeutic or dietary interventions in high-risk populations. PMID:26394123

Exposure to prescription opioid analgesics in utero and risk of neonatal abstinence syndrome: population based cohort study.

PubMed

Desai, Rishi J; Huybrechts, Krista F; Hernandez-Diaz, Sonia; Mogun, Helen; Patorno, Elisabetta; Kaltenbach, Karol; Kerzner, Leslie S; Bateman, Brian T

2015-05-14

To provide absolute and relative risk estimates of neonatal abstinence syndrome (NAS) based on duration and timing of prescription opioid use during pregnancy in the presence or absence of additional NAS risk factors of history of opioid misuse or dependence, misuse of other substances, non-opioid psychotropic drug use, and smoking. Observational cohort study. Medicaid data from 46 US states. Pregnant women filling at least one prescription for an opioid analgesic at any time during pregnancy for whom opioid exposure characteristics including duration of therapy: short term (<30 days) or long term (≥ 30 days); timing of use: early use (only in the first two trimesters) or late use (extending into the third trimester); and cumulative dose (in morphine equivalent milligrams) were assessed. Diagnosis of NAS in liveborn infants. 1705 cases of NAS were identified among 290,605 pregnant women filling opioid prescriptions, corresponding to an absolute risk of 5.9 per 1000 deliveries (95% confidence interval 5.6 to 6.2). Long term opioid use during pregnancy resulted in higher absolute risk of NAS per 1000 deliveries in the presence of additional risk factors of known opioid misuse (220.2 (200.8 to 241.0)), alcohol or other drug misuse (30.8 (26.1 to 36.0)), exposure to other psychotropic medications (13.1 (10.6 to 16.1)), and smoking (6.6 (4.3 to 9.6)) than in the absence of any of these risk factors (4.2 (3.3 to 5.4)). The corresponding risk estimates for short term use were 192.0 (175.8 to 209.3), 7.0 (6.0 to 8.2), 2.0 (1.5 to 2.6), 1.5 (1.0 to 2.0), and 0.7 (0.6 to 0.8) per 1000 deliveries, respectively. In propensity score matched analyses, long term prescription opioid use compared with short term use and late use compared with early use in pregnancy demonstrated greater risk of NAS (risk ratios 2.05 (95% confidence interval 1.81 to 2.33) and 1.24 (1.12 to 1.38), respectively). Use of prescription opioids during pregnancy is associated with a low absolute risk of NAS in the absence of additional risk factors. Long term use compared with short term use and late use compared with early use of prescription opioids are associated with increased NAS risk independent of additional risk factors. © Desai et al 2015.

Association of Changes in Air Quality with Bronchitic Symptoms in Children in California, 1993–2012

PubMed Central

Berhane, Kiros; Chang, Chih-Chieh; McConnell, Rob; Gauderman, W James; Avol, Edward; Rapapport, Ed; Urman, Robert; Lurmann, Fred; Gilliland, Frank

2017-01-01

Importance Childhood bronchitic symptoms are significant public health and clinical problems that produce a substantial burden of disease. Ambient air pollutants are important determinants of bronchitis occurrence. Objective To determine if improvements in ambient air quality in Southern California were associated with reductions in bronchitic symptoms in children. Design, Setting, and Participants A longitudinal study was conducted on 4,602 children (spanning 5–18 years of age) from three cohorts during 1993–2001, 1996–2004 and 2003–2012 in eight Southern California communities. A multilevel logistic model was used to estimate the association of changes in pollution levels with bronchitic symptoms. Exposures Average concentrations of nitrogen dioxide (NO2), ozone (O3), particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than 10 μm (PM10) and less than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) Main Outcome(s) and Measure(s) Annual age-specific prevalence of bronchitic symptoms during the previous 12 months based on the parent’s or child’s report of a daily cough for 3 months in a row, congestion or phlegm other than when accompanied by a cold, or bronchitis. Results The three cohorts included a total of 4602 children (mean age at baseline, 8.0 years; 2268 (49.3%) girls; 2081 (45.2%) Hispanic white) who had data from two or more annual questionnaires. Among these children, 892 (19.4%) had asthma at age 10. For NO2, the odds ratio [OR] for bronchitic symptoms among children with asthma at age 10 was 0.79 (95% CI,0.67–0.94) for median reduction of 4.9 ppb, with absolute decrease in prevalence of 10.1%. For O3, the OR was 0.66 (95% CI,0.50–0.86) for median reduction of 3.6 ppb, with absolute decrease in prevalence of 16.3%. For PM10, the OR was 0.61 (95% CI,0.48–0.78) for median reduction of 5.8 μg/m3, with absolute decrease in prevalence of 18.7%. For PM2.5, the OR was 0.68 (95% CI,0.53–0.86) for median reduction of 6.8 μg/m3, with absolute decrease in prevalence of 15.4%. Among children without asthma (N=3,710), the corresponding associations were: NO2 (OR,0.84; 95% CI,0.76–0.92); O3 (OR,0.85; 95% CI,0.74–0.97), PM10 (OR,0.80; 95% CI,0.70–0.92), and PM2.5 (OR,0.79; 95% CI,0.69–0.91); with absolute decrease in prevalence of 1.8%, 1.7%, 2.2%, and 2.3% respectively. The associations were similar or slightly stronger at age 15. Conclusions and Relevance Decreases in ambient pollution levels were associated with statistically significant decreases in bronchitic symptoms in children. While the study design does not establish causality, the findings support potential benefit of air pollution reduction on asthma control. PMID:27115265

Effects of extended-release niacin with laropiprant in high-risk patients.

PubMed

Landray, Martin J; Haynes, Richard; Hopewell, Jemma C; Parish, Sarah; Aung, Theingi; Tomson, Joseph; Wallendszus, Karl; Craig, Martin; Jiang, Lixin; Collins, Rory; Armitage, Jane

2014-07-17

Patients with evidence of vascular disease are at increased risk for subsequent vascular events despite effective use of statins to lower the low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol level. Niacin lowers the LDL cholesterol level and raises the high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol level, but its clinical efficacy and safety are uncertain. After a prerandomization run-in phase to standardize the background statin-based LDL cholesterol-lowering therapy and to establish participants' ability to take extended-release niacin without clinically significant adverse effects, we randomly assigned 25,673 adults with vascular disease to receive 2 g of extended-release niacin and 40 mg of laropiprant or a matching placebo daily. The primary outcome was the first major vascular event (nonfatal myocardial infarction, death from coronary causes, stroke, or arterial revascularization). During a median follow-up period of 3.9 years, participants who were assigned to extended-release niacin-laropiprant had an LDL cholesterol level that was an average of 10 mg per deciliter (0.25 mmol per liter as measured in the central laboratory) lower and an HDL cholesterol level that was an average of 6 mg per deciliter (0.16 mmol per liter) higher than the levels in those assigned to placebo. Assignment to niacin-laropiprant, as compared with assignment to placebo, had no significant effect on the incidence of major vascular events (13.2% and 13.7% of participants with an event, respectively; rate ratio, 0.96; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.90 to 1.03; P=0.29). Niacin-laropiprant was associated with an increased incidence of disturbances in diabetes control that were considered to be serious (absolute excess as compared with placebo, 3.7 percentage points; P<0.001) and with an increased incidence of diabetes diagnoses (absolute excess, 1.3 percentage points; P<0.001), as well as increases in serious adverse events associated with the gastrointestinal system (absolute excess, 1.0 percentage point; P<0.001), musculoskeletal system (absolute excess, 0.7 percentage points; P<0.001), skin (absolute excess, 0.3 percentage points; P=0.003), and unexpectedly, infection (absolute excess, 1.4 percentage points; P<0.001) and bleeding (absolute excess, 0.7 percentage points; P<0.001). Among participants with atherosclerotic vascular disease, the addition of extended-release niacin-laropiprant to statin-based LDL cholesterol-lowering therapy did not significantly reduce the risk of major vascular events but did increase the risk of serious adverse events. (Funded by Merck and others; HPS2-THRIVE ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00461630.).

Reader variability in breast density estimation from full-field digital mammograms: the effect of image postprocessing on relative and absolute measures.

PubMed

Keller, Brad M; Nathan, Diane L; Gavenonis, Sara C; Chen, Jinbo; Conant, Emily F; Kontos, Despina

2013-05-01

Mammographic breast density, a strong risk factor for breast cancer, may be measured as either a relative percentage of dense (ie, radiopaque) breast tissue or as an absolute area from either raw (ie, "for processing") or vendor postprocessed (ie, "for presentation") digital mammograms. Given the increasing interest in the incorporation of mammographic density in breast cancer risk assessment, the purpose of this study is to determine the inherent reader variability in breast density assessment from raw and vendor-processed digital mammograms, because inconsistent estimates could to lead to misclassification of an individual woman's risk for breast cancer. Bilateral, mediolateral-oblique view, raw, and processed digital mammograms of 81 women were retrospectively collected for this study (N = 324 images). Mammographic percent density and absolute dense tissue area estimates for each image were obtained from two radiologists using a validated, interactive software tool. The variability of interreader agreement was not found to be affected by the image presentation style (ie, raw or processed, F-test: P > .5). Interreader estimates of relative and absolute breast density are strongly correlated (Pearson r > 0.84, P < .001) but systematically different (t-test, P < .001) between the two readers. Our results show that mammographic density may be assessed with equal reliability from either raw or vendor postprocessed images. Furthermore, our results suggest that the primary source of density variability comes from the subjectivity of the individual reader in assessing the absolute amount of dense tissue present in the breast, indicating the need to use standardized tools to mitigate this effect. Copyright © 2013 AUR. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Benazepril plus amlodipine or hydrochlorothiazide for hypertension in high-risk patients.

PubMed

Jamerson, Kenneth; Weber, Michael A; Bakris, George L; Dahlöf, Björn; Pitt, Bertram; Shi, Victor; Hester, Allen; Gupte, Jitendra; Gatlin, Marjorie; Velazquez, Eric J

2008-12-04

The optimal combination drug therapy for hypertension is not established, although current U.S. guidelines recommend inclusion of a diuretic. We hypothesized that treatment with the combination of an angiotensin-converting-enzyme (ACE) inhibitor and a dihydropyridine calcium-channel blocker would be more effective in reducing the rate of cardiovascular events than treatment with an ACE inhibitor plus a thiazide diuretic. In a randomized, double-blind trial, we assigned 11,506 patients with hypertension who were at high risk for cardiovascular events to receive treatment with either benazepril plus amlodipine or benazepril plus hydrochlorothiazide. The primary end point was the composite of death from cardiovascular causes, nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, hospitalization for angina, resuscitation after sudden cardiac arrest, and coronary revascularization. The baseline characteristics of the two groups were similar. The trial was terminated early after a mean follow-up of 36 months, when the boundary of the prespecified stopping rule was exceeded. Mean blood pressures after dose adjustment were 131.6/73.3 mm Hg in the benazepril-amlodipine group and 132.5/74.4 mm Hg in the benazepril-hydrochlorothiazide group. There were 552 primary-outcome events in the benazepril-amlodipine group (9.6%) and 679 in the benazepril-hydrochlorothiazide group (11.8%), representing an absolute risk reduction with benazepril-amlodipine therapy of 2.2% and a relative risk reduction of 19.6% (hazard ratio, 0.80, 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.72 to 0.90; P<0.001). For the secondary end point of death from cardiovascular causes, nonfatal myocardial infarction, and nonfatal stroke, the hazard ratio was 0.79 (95% CI, 0.67 to 0.92; P=0.002). Rates of adverse events were consistent with those observed from clinical experience with the study drugs. The benazepril-amlodipine combination was superior to the benazepril-hydrochlorothiazide combination in reducing cardiovascular events in patients with hypertension who were at high risk for such events. (ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00170950.) 2008 Massachusetts Medical Society

Achieving Effective Risk Management Reduction Throughout Decommissioning at the Columbus Closure Project

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Anderson, K.D.

2006-07-01

Nuclear facility decontamination, dismantlement, and demolition activities provide a myriad of challenges along the path to reaching a safe, effective, and compliant decommissioning. Among the challenges faced during decommissioning, is the constant management and technical effort to eliminate, mitigate, or minimize the potential of risks of radiation exposures and other hazards to the worker, the surrounding community, and the environment. Management strategies to eliminate, mitigate, or minimize risks include incorporating strong safety and As Low As Reasonably Achievable (ALARA) principles into an integrated work planning process. Technical and operational strategies may include utilizing predictive risk analysis tools to establish contaminationmore » limits for demolition and using remote handling equipment to reduce occupational and radiation exposures to workers. ECC and E2 Closure Services, LLC (Closure Services) have effectively utilized these management and technical tools to eliminate, mitigate, and reduce radiation exposures under contract to the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) for the decontamination and decommissioning Columbus Closure Project (CCP). In particular, Closure Services achieved significant dose reduction during the dismantling, decontamination, and demolition activities for Building JN-1. Management strategies during the interior dismantlement, decontamination, and demolition of the facility demanded an integrated work planning processes that involved project disciplines. Integrated planning processes identified multiple opportunities to incorporate the use of remote handling equipment during the interior dismantling and demolition activities within areas of high radiation. Technical strategies employed predictive risk analysis tools to set upper bounding contamination limits, allowed for the radiological demolition of the building without exceeding administrative dose limits to the worker, general public, and the environment. Adhering to management and technical strategies during the dismantlement, decontamination, and demolition of Building JN-1 enabled Closure Services to achieve strong ALARA performance, maintain absolute compliance under the regulatory requirements and meeting licensing conditions for decommissioning. (authors)« less

Pharmacological treatment of osteoporosis in the oldest old

PubMed Central

Vandenbroucke, A; Luyten, FP; Flamaing, J; Gielen, E

2017-01-01

The incidence of osteoporotic fractures increases with age. Consequently, the global prevalence of osteoporotic fractures will increase with the aging of the population. In old age, osteoporosis is associated with a substantial burden in terms of morbidity and mortality. Nevertheless, osteoporosis in old age continues to be underdiagnosed and undertreated. This may, at least partly, be explained by the fact that evidence of the antifracture efficacy of osteoporosis treatments comes mainly from randomized controlled trials in postmenopausal women with a mean age of 70–75 years. However, in the last years, subgroup analyses of these landmark trials have been published investigating the efficacy and safety of osteoporosis treatment in the very elderly. Based on this evidence, this narrative review discusses the pharmacological management of osteoporosis in the oldest old (≥80 years). Because of the high prevalence of calcium and/or vitamin D deficiency in old age, these supplements are essential in the management of osteoporosis in the elderly people. Adding antiresorptive or anabolic treatments or combinations, thereof, reduces the risk of vertebral fractures even more, at least in the elderly with documented osteoporosis. The reduction of hip fracture risk by antiresorptive treatments is less convincing, which may be explained by insufficient statistical power in some subanalyses and/or a higher impact of nonskeletal risk factors in the occurrence of hip fractures. Compared with younger individuals, a larger absolute risk reduction is observed in the elderly because of the higher baseline fracture risk. Therefore, the elderly will benefit more of treatment. In addition, current osteoporosis therapies also appear to be safe in the elderly. Although more research is required to further clarify the effect of osteoporosis drugs in the elderly, especially with respect to hip fractures, there is currently sufficient evidence to initiate appropriate treatment in the elderly with osteoporosis and osteoporotic fractures. PMID:28740372

National cohort study of absolute risk and age-specific incidence of multiple adverse outcomes between adolescence and early middle age.

PubMed

Mok, Pearl L H; Antonsen, Sussie; Pedersen, Carsten Bøcker; Appleby, Louis; Shaw, Jenny; Webb, Roger T

2015-09-19

Psychiatric illness, substance misuse, suicidality, criminality and premature death represent major public health challenges that afflict a sizeable proportion of young people. However, studies of multiple adverse outcomes in the same cohort at risk are rare. In a national Danish cohort we estimated sex- and age-specific incidence rates and absolute risks of these outcomes between adolescence and early middle age. Using interlinked registers, persons born in Denmark 1966-1996 were followed from their 15(th) until 40(th) birthday or December 2011 (N = 2,070,904). We estimated sex- and age-specific incidence rates of nine adverse outcomes, in three main categories: Premature mortality (all-causes, suicide, accident); Psychiatric morbidity (any mental illness diagnosis, suicide attempt, alcohol or drug misuse disorder); Criminality (violent offending, receiving custodial sentence, driving under influence of alcohol or drugs). Cumulative incidences were also calculated using competing risk survival analyses. For cohort members alive on their 15(th) birthday, the absolute risks of dying by age 40 were 1.99 % for males [95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.95-2.03 %] and 0.85 % for females (95 % CI 0.83-0.88 %). The risks of substance misuse and criminality were also much higher for males, especially younger males, than for females. Specifically, the risk of a first conviction for a violent offence was highest amongst males aged below 20. Females, however, were more likely than males to have a hospital-treated psychiatric disorder. By age 40, 13.25 % of females (95 % CI 13.16-13.33 %) and 9.98 % of males (95 % CI 9.91-10.06 %) had been treated. Women aged below 25 were also more likely than men to first attempt suicide, but this pattern was reversed beyond this age. The greatest gender differentials in incidence rates were in criminality outcomes. This is the first comprehensive assessment of the incidence rates and absolute risks of these multiple adverse outcomes. Approximately 1 in 50 males and 1 in 120 females who are alive on their 15th birthday will die by age 40. By examining the same cohort at risk, we compared risks for multiple outcomes without differential inter-cohort biases. These epidemiological profiles will inform further research into the pathways leading to these adverse events and future preventive strategies.

[Efficacy of motivational interviewing for reducing medication errors in chronic patients over 65 years with polypharmacy: Results of a cluster randomized trial].

PubMed

Pérula de Torres, Luis Angel; Pulido Ortega, Laura; Pérula de Torres, Carlos; González Lama, Jesús; Olaya Caro, Inmaculada; Ruiz Moral, Roger

2014-10-21

To evaluate the effectiveness of an intervention based on motivational interviewing to reduce medication errors in chronic patients over 65 with polypharmacy. Cluster randomized trial that included doctors and nurses of 16 Primary Care centers and chronic patients with polypharmacy over 65 years. The professionals were assigned to the experimental or the control group using stratified randomization. Interventions consisted of training of professionals and revision of patient treatments, application of motivational interviewing in the experimental group and also the usual approach in the control group. The primary endpoint (medication error) was analyzed at individual level, and was estimated with the absolute risk reduction (ARR), relative risk reduction (RRR), number of subjects to treat (NNT) and by multiple logistic regression analysis. Thirty-two professionals were randomized (19 doctors and 13 nurses), 27 of them recruited 154 patients consecutively (13 professionals in the experimental group recruited 70 patients and 14 professionals recruited 84 patients in the control group) and completed 6 months of follow-up. The mean age of patients was 76 years (68.8% women). A decrease in the average of medication errors was observed along the period. The reduction was greater in the experimental than in the control group (F=5.109, P=.035). RRA 29% (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 15.0-43.0%), RRR 0.59 (95% CI:0.31-0.76), and NNT 3.5 (95% CI 2.3-6.8). Motivational interviewing is more efficient than the usual approach to reduce medication errors in patients over 65 with polypharmacy. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Perceptions of health risks of cigarette smoking: A new measure reveals widespread misunderstanding

PubMed Central

Krosnick, Jon A.; Malhotra, Neil; Bruera, Eduardo F.; Chang, LinChiat; Pasek, Josh; Thomas, Randall K.

2017-01-01

Most Americans recognize that smoking causes serious diseases, yet many Americans continue to smoke. One possible explanation for this paradox is that perhaps Americans do not accurately perceive the extent to which smoking increases the probability of adverse health outcomes. This paper examines the accuracy of Americans’ perceptions of the absolute risk, attributable risk, and relative risk of lung cancer, and assesses which of these beliefs drive Americans’ smoking behavior. Using data from three national surveys, statistical analyses were performed by comparing means, medians, and distributions, and by employing Generalized Additive Models. Perceptions of relative risk were associated as expected with smoking onset and smoking cessation, whereas perceptions of absolute risk and attributable risk were not. Additionally, the relation of relative risk with smoking status was stronger among people who held their risk perceptions with more certainty. Most current smokers, former smokers, and never-smokers considerably underestimated the relative risk of smoking. If, as this paper suggests, people naturally think about the health consequences of smoking in terms of relative risk, smoking rates might be reduced if public understanding of the relative risks of smoking were more accurate and people held those beliefs with more confidence. PMID:28806420

iCARE

Cancer.gov

The iCARE R Package allows researchers to quickly build models for absolute risk, and apply them to estimate an individual's risk of developing disease during a specifed time interval, based on a set of user defined input parameters.

Perceived risk of tamoxifen side effects: a study of the use of absolute frequencies or frequency bands, with or without verbal descriptors.

PubMed

Knapp, Peter; Gardner, Peter H; Raynor, David K; Woolf, Elizabeth; McMillan, Brian

2010-05-01

To investigate the effectiveness of presenting medicine side effect risk information in different forms, including that proposed by UK guidelines [[1] Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency. Always read the leaflet-Getting the best information with every medicine. (Report of the Committee on Safety of Medicines Working Group on Patient Information). London: The Stationery Office, 2005.]. 134 Cancer Research UK (CRUK) website users were recruited via a 'pop-up'. Using a 2x2 factorial design, participants were randomly allocated to one of four conditions and asked to: imagine they had to take tamoxifen, estimate the risks of 4 side effects, and indicate a presentation mode preference. Those presented with absolute frequencies demonstrated greater accuracy in estimating 2 of 4 side effects, and of any side effect occurring, than those presented with frequency bands. Those presented with combined descriptors were more accurate at estimating the risk of pulmonary embolism than those presented with numeric descriptors only. Absolute frequencies outperform frequency bands when presenting side effect risk information. However, presenting such exact frequencies for every side effect may be much less digestible than all side effects listed under 5 frequency bands. Combined numerical and verbal descriptors may be better than numeric only descriptors when describing infrequent side effects. Information about side effects should be presented in ways that patients prefer, and which result in most accurate risk estimates. Copyright (c) 2009 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Patent foramen ovele, good reasons to close it].

PubMed

Meier, Bernhard

2018-03-01

A patent foramen ovale (PFO) is not to be considered a disease as it is present in about 25 % of people. Yet, it is the prime reason for paradoxical embolism that can cause serious problems, such as death, stroke, myocardial infarction, and peripheral ischemia. The frequency of such events is probably underestimated as other causes tend to be blamed for them. Device PFO closure can be easily accomplished as outpatient procedure with minimal discomfort and risk and it has been referred to as mechanical vaccination. Randomized trials have proved its value for reduction of recurrent stroke. There is also good evidence that PFO closure solves problems like platypnoea orthodeoxia and exercise desaturation, improves migraine, and is helpful in sleep apnoea. In addition, it renders diving and high altitude climbing safer. The absolute risk of a PFO is dependent on its size and its association with an atrial septal aneurysm, a Eustachian valve, or a Chiari network. The number needed to treat to prevent one stroke by PFO closure may be as low as 2 over lifetime in selected patients. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Soil Oxidation-Reduction Potential and Plant Photosynthetic Capacity in the Northern Pantanal of Mato Grosso, Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lathuilliere, M. J.; Johnson, M. S.; Dalmagro, H. J.; Pinto Junior, O. B.; Couto, E. G.

2013-12-01

Plant communities of the Pantanal wetland are able to survive long periods of climatic and physiological stress in the dry and wet seasons. During inundation, soil oxygen demand increases dramatically as reducing soil conditions create stress in the root system with possible impacts on photosynthetic capacity of plants. We look at inundation cycles of a tree island (locally known as a cordilheira) in the Northern Pantanal near Poconé, Mato Grosso, and relate soil oxidation-reduction potential and soil oxygen depletion to the photosynthetic capacity of two plant communities of flooded scrub forest (Vochysia divergens and Curatela americana). Results show a drop in soil oxidation-reduction potential of over 400 mV, to levels below the absolute value of -200 mV, following inundation around the tree island. Both plant species showed increased carbon assimilation at highest soil oxygen demand despite a change in stomatal conductance, suggesting adaptation to the inundated environment. Absolute values of soil oxidation-reduction potential also allow for the determination of specific soil chemical reactions characteristic of the tree island environment, namely the reduction of iron(III), or carbon dioxide which in turn produces methane. Our combined analysis of soil chemistry with plant ecophysiology allows for a better understanding of soil-plant interactions in the Pantanal, specifically the drivers of biogeochemical processes between inundation periods.

Debiasing comparative optimism and increasing worry for health outcomes.

PubMed

Rose, Jason P

2012-11-01

Comparative optimism - feeling at less personal risk for negative outcomes than one's peers - has been linked to reduced prevention efforts. This study examined a novel debiasing technique aimed at simultaneously reducing both indirectly and directly measured comparative optimism. Before providing direct comparative estimates, participants provided absolute self and peer estimates in a joint format (same computer screen) or a separate format (different computer screens). Relative to the separate format condition, participants in the joint format condition showed (1) lower comparative optimism in absolute/indirect measures, (2) lower direct comparative optimism, and (3) heightened worry. Implications for risk perception screening are discussed.

N-Terminal Pro-Brain Natriuretic Peptide and Heart Failure Risk Among Individuals With and Without Obesity: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study.

PubMed

Ndumele, Chiadi E; Matsushita, Kunihiro; Sang, Yingying; Lazo, Mariana; Agarwal, Sunil K; Nambi, Vijay; Deswal, Anita; Blumenthal, Roger S; Ballantyne, Christie M; Coresh, Josef; Selvin, Elizabeth

2016-02-16

Obesity is a risk factor for heart failure (HF) but is associated with lower N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) levels. It is unclear whether the prognostic value and implications of NT-proBNP levels for HF risk differ across body mass index (BMI) categories. We followed up 12 230 ARIC participants free of prior HF at baseline (visit 2, 1990-1992) with BMI ≥18.5 kg/m(2). We quantified and compared the relative and absolute risk associations of NT-proBNP with incident HF across BMI categories. There were 1861 HF events during a median 20.6 years of follow-up. Despite increased HF risk in obesity, a weak inverse association was seen between baseline BMI and NT-proBNP levels (r=-0.10). Nevertheless, higher baseline NT-proBNP was associated with increased HF risk in all BMI categories. NT-proBNP improved HF risk prediction overall, even among those with severe obesity (BMI ≥35 kg/m(2); improvement in C statistic, 0.032; 95% confidence interval, 0.011-0.053). However, given the higher HF rates among those with obesity, at each NT-proBNP level, higher BMI was associated with greater absolute HF risk. Indeed, among those with NT-proBNP of 100 to <200 pg/mL, the average 10-year HF risk was <5% among normal-weight individuals but >10% among the severely obese. Despite its inverse relationship with BMI, NT-proBNP provides significant prognostic information on the risk of developing HF even among individuals with obesity. Given the higher baseline HF risk among persons with obesity, even slight elevations in NT-proBNP may have implications for increased absolute HF risk in this population. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

Initial Steps to inform selection of continuation cognitive therapy or fluoxetine for higher risk responders to cognitive therapy for recurrent major depressive disorder.

PubMed

Vittengl, Jeffrey R; Anna Clark, Lee; Thase, Michael E; Jarrett, Robin B

2017-07-01

Responders to acute-phase cognitive therapy (A-CT) for major depressive disorder (MDD) often relapse or recur, but continuation-phase cognitive therapy (C-CT) or fluoxetine reduces risks for some patients. We tested composite moderators of C-CT versus fluoxetine's preventive effects to inform continuation treatment selection. Responders to A-CT for MDD judged to be at higher risk for relapse due to unstable or partial remission (N=172) were randomized to 8 months of C-CT or fluoxetine with clinical management and assessed, free from protocol treatment, for 24 additional months. Pre-continuation-treatment characteristics that in survival analyses moderated treatments' effects on relapse over 8 months of continuation-phase treatment (residual symptoms and negative temperament) and on relapse/recurrence over the full observation period's 32 months (residual symptoms and age) were combined to estimate the potential advantage of C-CT versus fluoxetine for individual patients. Assigning patients to optimal continuation treatment (i.e., to C-CT or fluoxetine, depending on patients' pre-continuation-treatment characteristics) resulted in absolute reduction of relapse or recurrence risk by 16-21% compared to the other non-optimal treatment. Although these novel results require replication before clinical application, selecting optimal continuation treatment (i.e., personalizing treatment) for higher risk A-CT responders may decrease risks of MDD relapse and recurrence substantively. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Meta-analysis of medical intervention for normal tension glaucoma.

PubMed

Cheng, Jin-Wei; Cai, Ji-Ping; Wei, Rui-Li

2009-07-01

To evaluate the intraocular pressure (IOP) reduction achieved by the most frequently prescribed antiglaucoma drugs in patients with normal tension glaucoma (NTG). Systematic review and meta-analysis. Fifteen randomized clinical trials reported 25 arms for peak IOP reduction, 16 arms for trough IOP reduction, and 13 arms for diurnal curve IOP reduction. Pertinent publications were identified through systematic searches of PubMed, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Controlled Trials Register. The patients had to be diagnosed as having NTG. Methodological quality was assessed by the Delphi list on a scale from 0 to 18. The pooled 1-month IOP-lowering effects were calculated using the 2-step DerSimonian and Laird estimate method of the random effects model. Absolute and relative reductions in IOP from baseline for peak and trough moments. Quality scores of included studies were generally high, with a mean quality score of 12.7 (range, 9-16). Relative IOP reductions were peak, 15% (12%-18%), and trough, 18% (8%-27%) for timolol; peak, 14% (8%-19%), and trough, 12% (-7% to 31%) for dorzolamide; peak, 24% (17%-31%), and trough, 11% (7%-14%) for brimonidine; peak, 20% (17%-24%), and trough, 20% (18%-23%) for latanoprost; peak, 21% (16%-25%), and trough, 18% (14%-22%) for bimatoprost. The differences in absolute IOP reductions between prostaglandin analogues and timolol varied from 0.9 to 1.0 mmHg at peak and -0.1 to 0.2 mmHg at trough. Latanoprost, bimatoprost, and timolol are the most effective IOP-lowering agents in patients with NTG.

Clearing margin system in the futures markets—Applying the value-at-risk model to Taiwanese data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chiu, Chien-Liang; Chiang, Shu-Mei; Hung, Jui-Cheng; Chen, Yu-Lung

2006-07-01

This article sets out to investigate if the TAIFEX has adequate clearing margin adjustment system via unconditional coverage, conditional coverage test and mean relative scaled bias to assess the performance of three value-at-risk (VaR) models (i.e., the TAIFEX, RiskMetrics and GARCH-t). For the same model, original and absolute returns are compared to explore which can accurately capture the true risk. For the same return, daily and tiered adjustment methods are examined to evaluate which corresponds to risk best. The results indicate that the clearing margin adjustment of the TAIFEX cannot reflect true risks. The adjustment rules, including the use of absolute return and tiered adjustment of the clearing margin, have distorted VaR-based margin requirements. Besides, the results suggest that the TAIFEX should use original return to compute VaR and daily adjustment system to set clearing margin. This approach would improve the funds operation efficiency and the liquidity of the futures markets.

How Can Men Convicted of Violence Against Women Feel Moral While Holding Sexist and Violent Attitudes? A Homeostatic Moral Model Based on Self-Deception.

PubMed

Vecina, María L

2018-05-01

A moral model is proposed to understand how men convicted of violence against the partner can feel moral in spite of their past violent behavior and their current violent and sexist attitudes. Because of its appeal to the role of self-deception and its relationship to psychological well-being, it was hypothesized that a rigid conception about what is right and wrong (moral absolutism) is associated with ambivalent outcomes that keep their psychological system in homeostasis. The relationships were specified a priori and tested using path analysis. Several fit indices supported the adequacy of the model and showed that moral absolutism was indirectly related to both psychological well-being and a good moral self-conceptualization through self-deception. At the same time, moral absolutism was related to sexist and violent attitudes and a poor moral self-conceptualization. Future interventions could include strategies to reduce the resistances to change based on the reduction of moral absolutism and self-deception.

A randomised crossover trial of the acute effects of a deep-fried Mars bar or porridge on the cerebral vasculature.

PubMed

Dunn, William G; Walters, Matthew R

2014-11-01

The deep-fried Mars bar has been cited as 'all that is wrong with the high-fat, high-sugar Scottish diet'. We investigated the effect of ingestion of a deep-fried Mars bar or porridge on cerebrovascular reactivity. We hypothesised that deep-fried Mars bar ingestion would impair cerebrovascular reactivity, which is associated with increased risk of ischaemic stroke. Twenty-four fasted volunteers were randomised to receive a deep-fried Mars bar and then porridge (control), or vice-versa. We used transcranial Doppler ultrasound to calculate Breath Holding Index as a surrogate measure of cerebrovascular reactivity. Change in Breath Holding Index post-ingestion was the primary outcome measure. Twenty-four healthy adults (mean (SD) age 21.5 (1.7) years, 14 males) completed the protocol. Deep-fried Mars bar ingestion caused a non-significant reduction in cerebrovascular reactivity relative to control (mean difference in absolute Breath Holding Index after deep-fried Mars bar versus porridge -0.11, p = 0.40). Comparison of the difference between the absolute change in Breath Holding Index between genders demonstrated a significant impairment of cerebrovascular reactivity in males (mean difference women minus men of 0.65, 95% CI 0.30 to 1.00, p = 0.0003). Ingestion of a bolus of sugar and fat caused no overall difference in cerebrovascular reactivity, but there was a modest decrease in males. Impaired cerebrovascular reactivity is associated with increased stroke risk, and therefore deep-fried Mars bar ingestion may acutely contribute to cerebral hypoperfusion in men. © The Author(s) 2014 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.

Does elimination of planned postoperative radiation to the primary bed in p16-positive, transorally-resected oropharyngeal carcinoma associate with poorer outcomes?

PubMed

Sinha, Parul; Pipkorn, Patrik; Thorstad, Wade L; Gay, Hiram A; Haughey, Bruce H

2016-10-01

The purpose of our study is to compare oncologic and functional outcomes of p16-positive oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) patients, in the presence and absence of planned radiation to the primary bed following transoral surgery (TOS), stratified by T-classification. Retrospective cohort study of 261, T1-T4, consecutively TOS-treated OPSCC patients. At a median follow-up of 61months, local recurrence (LR) occurred in 6 (2.3%)patients (3 each in T1-T2 and T3-T4 groups), of which 5 had tumors in the tongue base and one in the tonsil. Of patients not receiving planned primary bed radiation, LR occurred in 3% of T1-T2s versus 17% of T3-T4s. In patients with T1-T2 tumors, Absolute Risk Reduction of LR with primary bed radiation was 3.26% (95% CI: -0.37%, 7%); Number Needed to Treat to prevent one LR was 31 (95% CI: 14.5, 271). Absolute Risk Increase for gastrostomy-tube with primary bed radiation was 34.4% (95% CI: 24%, 45%); Number Needed to Harm was 3 (95% CI: 2.2, 4.2), i.e., for every three patients with T1-T2 tumors receiving primary bed radiation, one had a gastrostomy-tube. Elimination of primary bed radiation in margin-negative resected, T1-T2 p16-positive OPSCC was not associated with significant compromise of local control, and correlated with superior swallowing preservation, assessed using gastrostomy rate as a surrogate. Lack of primary bed radiation in T3-T4 tumors associated with significantly increased LR rates. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The metabolism of plant sterols is disturbed in postmenopausal women with coronary artery disease.

PubMed

Gylling, Helena; Hallikainen, Maarit; Rajaratnam, Radhakrishnan A; Simonen, Piia; Pihlajamäki, Jussi; Laakso, Markku; Miettinen, Tatu A

2009-03-01

In postmenopausal coronary artery disease (CAD) women, serum plant sterols are elevated. Thus, we investigated further whether serum plant sterols reflect absolute cholesterol metabolism in CAD as in other populations and whether the ABCG5 and ABCG8 genes, associated with plant sterol metabolism, were related to the risk of CAD. In free-living postmenopausal women with (n = 47) and without (n = 62) CAD, serum noncholesterol sterols including plant sterols were analyzed with gas-liquid chromatography, cholesterol absorption with peroral isotopes, absolute cholesterol synthesis with sterol balance technique, and bile acid synthesis with quantitating fecal bile acids. In CAD women, serum plant sterol ratios to cholesterol were 21% to 26% (P < .05) higher than in controls despite similar cholesterol absorption efficiency. Absolute cholesterol and bile acid synthesis were reduced. Only in controls were serum plant sterols related to cholesterol absorption (eg, sitosterol; in controls: r = 0.533, P < .001; in CAD: r = 0.296, P = not significant). However, even in CAD women, serum lathosterol (relative synthesis marker) and lathosterol-cholestanol (relative synthesis-absorption marker) were related to absolute synthesis and absorption percentage (P range from .05 to <.001) similarly to controls. Frequencies of the common polymorphisms of ABCG5 and ABCG8 genes did not differ between coronary and control women. In conclusion, plant sterol metabolism is disturbed in CAD women; so serum plant sterols only tended to reflect absolute cholesterol absorption. Other relative markers of cholesterol metabolism were related to the absolute ones in both groups. ABCG5 and ABCG8 genes were not associated with the risk of CAD.

Discrimination measures for survival outcomes: connection between the AUC and the predictiveness curve.

PubMed

Viallon, Vivian; Latouche, Aurélien

2011-03-01

Finding out biomarkers and building risk scores to predict the occurrence of survival outcomes is a major concern of clinical epidemiology, and so is the evaluation of prognostic models. In this paper, we are concerned with the estimation of the time-dependent AUC--area under the receiver-operating curve--which naturally extends standard AUC to the setting of survival outcomes and enables to evaluate the discriminative power of prognostic models. We establish a simple and useful relation between the predictiveness curve and the time-dependent AUC--AUC(t). This relation confirms that the predictiveness curve is the key concept for evaluating calibration and discrimination of prognostic models. It also highlights that accurate estimates of the conditional absolute risk function should yield accurate estimates for AUC(t). From this observation, we derive several estimators for AUC(t) relying on distinct estimators of the conditional absolute risk function. An empirical study was conducted to compare our estimators with the existing ones and assess the effect of model misspecification--when estimating the conditional absolute risk function--on the AUC(t) estimation. We further illustrate the methodology on the Mayo PBC and the VA lung cancer data sets. Copyright © 2011 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Absolute risk representation in cardiovascular disease prevention: comprehension and preferences of health care consumers and general practitioners involved in a focus group study.

PubMed

Hill, Sophie; Spink, Janet; Cadilhac, Dominique; Edwards, Adrian; Kaufman, Caroline; Rogers, Sophie; Ryan, Rebecca; Tonkin, Andrew

2010-03-04

Communicating risk is part of primary prevention of coronary heart disease and stroke, collectively referred to as cardiovascular disease (CVD). In Australia, health organisations have promoted an absolute risk approach, thereby raising the question of suitable standardised formats for risk communication. Sixteen formats of risk representation were prepared including statements, icons, graphical formats, alone or in combination, and with variable use of colours. All presented the same risk, i.e., the absolute risk for a 55 year old woman, 16% risk of CVD in five years. Preferences for a five or ten-year timeframe were explored. Australian GPs and consumers were recruited for participation in focus groups, with the data analysed thematically and preferred formats tallied. Three focus groups with health consumers and three with GPs were held, involving 19 consumers and 18 GPs. Consumers and GPs had similar views on which formats were more easily comprehended and which conveyed 16% risk as a high risk. A simple summation of preferences resulted in three graphical formats (thermometers, vertical bar chart) and one statement format as the top choices. The use of colour to distinguish risk (red, yellow, green) and comparative information (age, sex, smoking status) were important ingredients. Consumers found formats which combined information helpful, such as colour, effect of changing behaviour on risk, or comparison with a healthy older person. GPs preferred formats that helped them relate the information about risk of CVD to their patients, and could be used to motivate patients to change behaviour.Several formats were reported as confusing, such as a percentage risk with no contextual information, line graphs, and icons, particularly those with larger numbers. Whilst consumers and GPs shared preferences, the use of one format for all situations was not recommended. Overall, people across groups felt that risk expressed over five years was preferable to a ten-year risk, the latter being too remote. Consumers and GPs shared preferences for risk representation formats. Both groups liked the option to combine formats and tailor the risk information to reflect a specific individual's risk, to maximise understanding and provide a good basis for discussion.

Cancer risk communication in mainstream and ethnic newspapers.

PubMed

Stryker, Jo Ellen; Fishman, Jessica; Emmons, Karen M; Viswanath, Kasisomayajula

2009-01-01

We wanted to understand how cancer risks are communicated in mainstream and ethnic newspapers, to determine whether the 2 kinds of newspapers differ and to examine features of news stories and sources that might predict optimal risk communication. Optimal risk communication was defined as presenting the combination of absolute risk, relative risk, and prevention response efficacy information. We collected data by conducting a content analysis of cancer news coverage from 2003 (5,327 stories in major newspapers, 565 stories in ethnic newspapers). Comparisons of mainstream and ethnic newspapers were conducted by using cross-tabulations and Pearson chi2 tests for significance. Logistic regression equations were computed to calculate odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for optimal risk communication. In both kinds of newspapers, cancer risks were rarely communicated numerically. When numeric presentations of cancer risks were used, only 26.2% of mainstream and 29.5% of ethnic newspaper stories provided estimates of both absolute and relative risk. For both kinds of papers, only 19% of news stories presented risk communication optimally. Cancer risks were more likely to be communicated optimally if they focused on prostate cancer, were reports of new research, or discussed medical or demographic risks. Research is needed to understand how these nonnumeric and decontextualized presentations of risk might contribute to inaccurate risk perceptions among news consumers.

Vehicle mass and injury risk in two-car crashes: A novel methodology.

PubMed

Tolouei, Reza; Maher, Mike; Titheridge, Helena

2013-01-01

This paper introduces a novel methodology based on disaggregate analysis of two-car crash data to estimate the partial effects of mass, through the velocity change, on absolute driver injury risk in each of the vehicles involved in the crash when absolute injury risk is defined as the probability of injury when the vehicle is involved in a two-car crash. The novel aspect of the introduced methodology is in providing a solution to the issue of lack of data on the speed of vehicles prior to the crash, which is required to calculate the velocity change, as well as a solution to the issue of lack of information on non-injury two-car crashes in national accident data. These issues have often led to focussing on relative measures of injury risk that are not independent of risk in the colliding cars. Furthermore, the introduced methodology is used to investigate whether there is any effect of vehicle size above and beyond that of mass ratio, and whether there are any effects associated with the gender and age of the drivers. The methodology was used to analyse two-car crashes to investigate the partial effects of vehicle mass and size on absolute driver injury risk. The results confirmed that in a two-car collision, vehicle mass has a protective effect on its own driver injury risk and an aggressive effect on the driver injury risk of the colliding vehicle. The results also confirmed that there is a protective effect of vehicle size above and beyond that of vehicle mass for frontal and front to side collisions. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A new Web-based medical tool for assessment and prevention of comprehensive cardiovascular risk

PubMed Central

Franchi, Daniele; Cini, Davide; Iervasi, Giorgio

2011-01-01

Background: Multifactor cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death; besides well-known cardiovascular risk factors, several emerging factors such as mental stress, diet type, and physical inactivity, have been associated to cardiovascular disease. To date, preventive strategies are based on the concept of absolute risk calculated by different algorithms and scoring systems. However, in general practice the patient’s data collection represents a critical issue. Design: A new multipurpose computer-based program has been developed in order to:1) easily calculate and compare the absolute cardiovascular risk by the Framingham, Procam, and Progetto Cuore algorithms; 2) to design a web-based computerized tool for prospective collection of structured data; 3) to support the doctor in the decision-making process for patients at risk according to recent international guidelines. Methods: During a medical consultation the doctor utilizes a common computer connected by Internet to a medical server where all the patient’s data and software reside. The program evaluates absolute and relative cardiovascular risk factors, personalized patient’s goals, and multiparametric trends, monitors critical parameter values, and generates an automated medical report. Results: In a pilot study on 294 patients (47% males; mean age 60 ± 12 years [±SD]) the global time to collect data at first consultation was 13 ± 11 minutes which declined to 8 ± 7 minutes at the subsequent consultation. In 48.2% of cases the program revealed 2 or more primary risk factor parameters outside guideline indications and gave specific clinical suggestions to return altered parameters to target values. Conclusion: The web-based system proposed here may represent a feasible and flexible tool for clinical management of patients at risk of cardiovascular disease and for epidemiological research. PMID:21445280

Effects of blood pressure-lowering treatment on cardiovascular outcomes and mortality: 13 - benefits and adverse events in older and younger patients with hypertension: overview, meta-analyses and meta-regression analyses of randomized trials.

PubMed

Thomopoulos, Costas; Parati, Gianfranco; Zanchetti, Alberto

2018-05-29

There is overwhelming evidence that blood pressure (BP)-lowering treatment can reduce cardiovascular outcomes also in the elderly, but some important aspects influencing medical practice are controversial as sufficient evidence has not been provided by single randomized controlled trials (RCTs), whereas evidence may result from a systematic search and meta-analysis of all available data. The following clinically relevant issues concerning the effects of BP lowering in older and younger individuals have been investigated: differences in benefits; the oldest and the youngest age range for which evidence of BP-lowering effects is available; the SBP level at which BP-lowering treatment should be initiated; the SBP and DBP levels treatment should be aimed at; differences in treatment burdens and harms. A database we previously identified of 72 BP-lowering RCTs in 260 210 patients was searched for separately reported data on older and younger individuals [cutoffs of 65 (primary analyses), 70, 75, 80, 60 and 55 years). The data were further stratified according to the levels of baseline (untreated) BP, and of on-treatment achieved SBP or DBP. Seven fatal and nonfatal outcomes were considered for benefits. Burdens and harms were investigated as permanent treatment discontinuations for adverse events, and hypotension/syncope. Risk ratios and absolute risk changes were calculated by a random effects model. Effects at older and younger ages were compared by heterogeneity test. Thirty-two RCTs provided data on 96 549 patients older than 65 years, and 31 RCTs on 114 009 patients younger than 65 years. All cardiovascular outcomes were significantly reduced by treatment both in older and younger individuals, without significant age-dependent differences in relative risk reduction but with significantly higher absolute risk reductions in older individuals. The extreme age ranges for which evidence of significant benefits of treatment were available was greater than 80 and less than 55 years. Only one RCT provided data on benefits of BP-lowering at age greater than 65 when treatment was initiated at SBP values in the grade 1 range, but more consistent evidence was provided when age was greater than 60 years. Both in patients older and younger than 65 years, significant reductions of cardiovascular outcomes were found at on-treatment SBP less than 140 mmHg and DBP less than 80 mmHg. There was no evidence that treatment discontinuations for adverse events or hypotension/syncope were more frequent at age greater than 65. Antihypertensive treatment should be recommended to all individuals with elevated BP, independent of age. The prudent recommendation to initiate treatment at SBP values 140-159 mmHg is supported at older age defined as greater than 60 years. SBP and DBP values lower than 140 mmHg and, respectively, 80 mmHg can be aimed at with incremental benefits without disproportionate burdens until age 80 years, above which available evidence is for benefits at on-treatment SBP 140-149 mmHg.

Breast Implants and the Risk of Anaplastic Large-Cell Lymphoma in the Breast.

PubMed

de Boer, Mintsje; van Leeuwen, Flora E; Hauptmann, Michael; Overbeek, Lucy I H; de Boer, Jan Paul; Hijmering, Nathalie J; Sernee, Arthur; Klazen, Caroline A H; Lobbes, Marc B I; van der Hulst, René R W J; Rakhorst, Hinne A; de Jong, Daphne

2018-03-01

Breast implants are among the most commonly used medical devices. Since 2008, the number of women with breast implants diagnosed with anaplastic large-cell lymphoma in the breast (breast-ALCL) has increased, and several reports have suggested an association between breast implants and risk of breast-ALCL. However, relative and absolute risks of breast-ALCL in women with implants are still unknown, precluding evidence-based counseling about implants. To determine relative and absolute risks of breast-ALCL in women with breast implants. Through the population-based nationwide Dutch pathology registry we identified all patients diagnosed with primary non-Hodgkin lymphoma in the breast between 1990 and 2016 and retrieved clinical data, including breast implant status, from the treating physicians. We estimated the odds ratio (OR) of ALCL associated with breast implants in a case-control design, comparing implant prevalence between women with breast-ALCL and women with other types of breast lymphoma. Cumulative risk of breast-ALCL was derived from the age-specific prevalence of breast implants in Dutch women, estimated from an examination of 3000 chest x-rays and time trends from implant sales. Relative and absolute risks of breast-ALCL in women with breast implants. Among 43 patients with breast-ALCL (median age, 59 years), 32 had ipsilateral breast implants, compared with 1 among 146 women with other primary breast lymphomas (OR, 421.8; 95% CI, 52.6-3385.2). Implants among breast-ALCL cases were more often macrotextured (23 macrotextured of 28 total implants of known type, 82%) than expected (49 193 sold macrotextured implants of total sold 109 449 between 2010 and 2015, 45%) based on sales data (P < .001). The estimated prevalence of breast implants in women aged 20 to 70 years was 3.3%. Cumulative risks of breast-ALCL in women with implants were 29 per million at 50 years and 82 per million at 70 years. The number of women with implants needed to cause 1 breast-ALCL case before age 75 years was 6920. Breast implants are associated with increased risk of breast-ALCL, but the absolute risk remains small. Our results emphasize the need for increased awareness among the public, medical professionals, and regulatory bodies, promotion of alternative cosmetic procedures, and alertness to signs and symptoms of breast-ALCL in women with implants.

12 CFR 217.52 - Simple risk-weight approach (SRWA).

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... greater than or equal to −1 (that is, between zero and −1), then E equals the absolute value of RVC. If... this section) by the lowest applicable risk weight in this paragraph (b). (1) Zero percent risk weight... credit exposures receive a zero percent risk weight under § 217.32 may be assigned a zero percent risk...

Risk Assessment of Physiological Effects of Atmospheric Composition and Pressure in Constellation Vehicles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Scheuring, Richard A.; Conkin, Johnny; Jones, J. A.; Gernhardt, M.

2007-01-01

To limit the risk of fire and reduce denitrogenation time to prevent decompression sickness to support frequent extravehicular activities on the Moon, a hypobaric (PB = 414 mmHg) and mildly hypoxic (ppO2 = 132 mmHg, 32% O2 - 68% N2) living environment is considered for the Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) and Lunar Surface Access Module (LSAM). With acute change in ppO2 from 145-178 mmHg at standard vehicular operating pressure to less than 125 mmHg at desired lunar surface vehicular operating pressures, there is the possibility that some crewmembers may develop symptoms of Acute Mountain Sickness (AMS). The signs and symptoms of AMS (headache plus nausea, dizziness, fatigue, or sleeplessness), could impact crew health and performance on lunar surface missions. An exhaustive literature review on the topic of the physiological effects of reduced ppO2 and absolute pressure as may contribute to the development of altitude symptoms or AMS was performed. The results of the nine most rigorous studies were collated, analyzed and contents on AMS and hypoxia symptoms summarized. There is evidence for an absolute pressure effect per se on AMS, so the higher the altitude for a given hypoxic alveolar O2 partial pressure (PAO2), the greater the AMS response. About 25% of adults are likely to experience mild AMS near 2,000 m altitude following a rapid ascent from sea level while breathing air (6,500 feet, acute PAO2 = 75 mmHg). The operational experience with the Shuttle staged denitrogenation protocol at 528 mmHg (3,048 m) while breathing 26.5% O2 (acute PAO2 = 85 mmHg) in astronauts adapting to microgravity suggests a similar likely experience in the proposed CEV environment. We believe the risk of mild AMS is greater given a PAO2 of 77 mmHg at 4,876 m altitude while breathing 32% O2 than at 1,828 m altitude while breathing 21% O2. Only susceptible astronauts would develop mild and transient AMS with prolonged exposure to 414 mmHg (4,876 m) while breathing 32% O2 (acute PAO2 = 77 mmHg). So the following may be employed for operational risk reduction: 1) develop procedures to increase PB as needed in the CEV, and use a gradual or staged reduction in cabin pressure during lunar outbound; 2) train crews for symptoms of hypoxia, to allow early recognition and consider pre-adaptation of crews to a hypoxic environment prior to launch, 3) consider prophylactic acetazolamide for acute pressure changes and be prepared to treat any AMS associated symptoms early with both carbonic anhydrase inhibitors and supplemental oxygen.

Should Tricuspid Annuloplasty be Performed With Pulmonary Valve Replacement for Pulmonary Regurgitation in Repaired Tetralogy of Fallot?

PubMed

Kurkluoglu, Mustafa; John, Anitha S; Cross, Russell; Chung, David; Yerebakan, Can; Zurakowski, David; Jonas, Richard A; Sinha, Pranava

2015-01-01

Indications for prophylactic tricuspid annuloplasty in patients with pulmonary regurgitation (PR) after tetralogy of Fallot (TOF) repair are unclear and often extrapolated from acquired functional tricuspid regurgitation (TR) data in adults, where despite correction of primary left heart pathology, progressive tricuspid annular dilation is noted beyond a threshold diameter >4 cm (21 mm/m(2)). We hypothesized that unlike in adult functional TR, in pure volume-overload conditions such as patients with PR after TOF, the tricuspid valve size is likely to regress after pulmonary valve replacement (PVR). A total of 43 consecutive patients who underwent PVR from 2005 until 2012 at a single institution were retrospectively reviewed. Absolute and indexed tricuspid annulus diameters (TADs), tricuspid annulus Z-scores, grade of TR along with right ventricular size, and function indices were recorded before and after PVR. Preoperative and postoperative echocardiographic data were available in all patients. A higher tricuspid valve Z-score correlated with greater TR both preoperatively (P = 0.005) and postoperatively (P = 0.02). Overall reductions in the absolute and indexed TAD and tricuspid valve Z-scores were seen postoperatively, with greater absolute as well as percentage reduction seen with larger preoperative TAD index (P = 0.007) and higher tricuspid annulus Z-scores (P = 0.06). In pure volume-overload conditions such as patients with PR after TOF, reduction in the tricuspid valve size is seen after PVR. Concomitant tricuspid annuloplasty should not be considered based on tricuspid annular dilation alone. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Myosin heavy chain expression in rodent skeletal muscle: effects of exposure to zero gravity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Haddad, F.; Herrick, R. E.; Adams, G. R.; Baldwin, K. M.

1993-01-01

This study ascertained the effects of 9 days of zero gravity on the relative (percentage of total) and calculated absolute (mg/muscle) content of isomyosin expressed in both antigravity and locomotor skeletal muscle of ground control (CON) and flight-exposed (FL) rats. Results showed that although there were no differences in body weight between FL and CON animals, a significant reduction in muscle mass occurred in the vastus intermedius (VI) (P < 0.05) but not in the vastus lateralis (VL) or the tibialis anterior. Both total muscle protein and myofibril protein content were not different between the muscle regions examined in the FL and CON groups. In the VI, there were trends for reductions in the relative content of type I and IIa myosin heavy chains (MHCs) that were offset by increases in the relative content of both type IIb and possibly type IIx MHC protein (P > 0.05). mRNA levels were consistent with this pattern (P < 0.05). The same pattern held true for the red region of the VL as examined at both the protein and mRNA level (P < 0.05). When the atrophy process was examined, there were net reductions in the absolute content of both type I and IIa MHCs that were offset by calculated increases in type IIb MHC in both VI and red VL. Collectively, these findings suggest that there are both absolute and relative changes occurring in MHC expression in the "red" regions of antigravity skeletal muscle during exposure to zero gravity that could affect muscle function.

[Effectiveness of an intervention to improve quality care in reducing cardiovascular risk in hypertense patients].

PubMed

Gómez Marcos, Manuel A; García Ortiz, Luis; González Elena, Luis Javier; Sánchez Rodríguez, Angel

2006-05-31

To evaluate the effectiveness of an intervention on health workers, based on quality improvement through reduction of cardiovascular risk in patients with hypertension. Quasi-experimental study. Primary care. Two urban health centres. A thousand hypertense patients selected by stratified random sampling. One centre (500) was assigned to implement a quality improvement intervention, while at the other centre (500) "usual care" procedures were followed (control group). The quality improvement intervention consisted of a combined program designed for the medical and nursing staff that comprised audit, feedback, training sessions, and implementation of clinical practice guidelines. Coronary risk using the Framingham scale and cardiovascular mortality risk using the SCORE project. Absolute coronary risk decreased from 16.94% (95% CI, 15.92-17.66) to 13.81% (95% CI, 13.09-14.52) (P<.001) in the intervention group; whilst there was no significant change in the control group, which dropped from 17.63% (95% CI, 16.68-18.53) to 16.82% (95% CI, 15.91-17.74). The intervention led to a 2.28% point decrease (95% CI, 1.35-3.21) (P<.001) in coronary risk. Cardiovascular mortality risk decreased from 2.48% (95% CI, 2.35-2.62) to 2.19% (95% CI, 2.07-2.31) (P<.001) in the intervention group, with no significant change in the control group, which changed from 2.45% (95% CI, 2.30-2.59) to 2.52% (95% CI, 2.38-2.66). The intervention led to a 0.36% point decrease (95% CI, 0.05-0.73) (P<.001) in cardiovascular mortality risk. The quality improvement intervention was effective in decreasing coronary risk and cardiovascular mortality risk in patients with hypertension.

Utilization of Pharmacy Technicians to Increase the Accuracy of Patient Medication Histories Obtained in the Emergency Department

PubMed Central

Pisupati, Radhika; Nerenberg, Steven F.

2016-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to determine the accuracy of a pharmacy technician–collected medication history pilot program in the emergency department. This was completed by reviewing all elements of the technician activity by direct observation and by verifying the technician-collected medication list through a second phone call by a pharmacist to the outpatient pharmacy. Methods: This was a retrospective, single-center study conducted from March to April 2015. Four certified pharmacy technicians were trained by a postgraduate year 1 (PGY1) pharmacy practice resident on how to collect, verify, and accurately enter medication histories into the electronic medical record. Accuracy of pharmacy technician–collected medication histories was verified by a pharmacist through observation of their patient interviews, review of technician-completed medication history forms, and by contacting the patient's outpatient pharmacy. Results: The pharmacy technician–completed medication histories resulted in an absolute risk reduction of errors of 50% and a relative risk reduction of errors of 77% (p < .001) in comparison to medication histories collected by non-pharmacy personnel. Conclusion: With high accuracy rates, pharmacy technicians proved to be a valuable asset to the medication history process and can enhance patient safety during care transitions. The results of this study further support the Pharmacy Practice Model Initiative vision to advance the pharmacy technician role to improve the process of medication history taking and reconciliation within the health care system. PMID:27303094

Ketamine added to morphine or hydromorphone patient-controlled analgesia for acute postoperative pain in adults: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized trials.

PubMed

Wang, Li; Johnston, Bradley; Kaushal, Alka; Cheng, Davy; Zhu, Fang; Martin, Janet

2016-03-01

To determine whether ketamine added to morphine or hydromorphone patient-controlled analgesia (PCA) provides clinically relevant reductions in postoperative pain, opioid requirements, and adverse events when compared with morphine or hydromorphone PCA in adults undergoing surgery. We systematically searched six databases up to June 2, 2015 for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) comparing ketamine plus morphine/hydromorphone PCA vs morphine/hydromorphone PCA for postoperative pain in adults. Thirty-six RCTs including 2,502 patients proved eligible, and 22 of these were at low risk of bias. The addition of ketamine to morphine/hydromorphone PCA decreased postoperative pain intensity at six to 72 hr when measured at rest (weighted mean difference [WMD] on a 10-cm visual analogue scale ranged from -0.4 to -1.3 cm) and during mobilization (WMD ranged from -0.4 to -0.5 cm). Adjunctive ketamine also significantly reduced cumulative morphine consumption at 24-72 hr by approximately 5-20 mg. Predefined subgroup analyses and meta-regression did not detect significant differences across subgroups, including a dose-response relationship. There was no significant difference in patient satisfaction scores at 24 and 48 hr. Nevertheless, the addition of ketamine to morphine/hydromorphone PCA significantly reduced postoperative nausea and vomiting (relative risk, 0.71; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.60 to 0.85; absolute risk reduction, 8.9%; 95% CI, 4.6 to 12.2). Significant effects on other adverse events (e.g., hallucinations, vivid dreams) were not detected, though only a few studies reported on them. Adding ketamine to morphine/hydromorphone PCA provides a small improvement in postoperative analgesia while reducing opioid requirements. Adjunctive ketamine also reduces postoperative nausea and vomiting without a detected increase in other adverse effects; however, adverse events were probably underreported.

Cost effectiveness of left atrial appendage closure with the Watchman device for atrial fibrillation patients with absolute contraindications to warfarin

PubMed Central

Reddy, Vivek Y.; Akehurst, Ronald L.; Armstrong, Shannon O.; Amorosi, Stacey L.; Brereton, Nic; Hertz, Deanna S.; Holmes, David R.

2016-01-01

Abstract Aims Atrial fibrillation (AF) patients with contraindications to oral anticoagulation have had few options for stroke prevention. Recently, a novel oral anticoagulant, apixaban, and percutaneous left atrial appendage closure (LAAC) have emerged as safe and effective therapies for stroke risk reduction in these patients. This analysis assessed the cost effectiveness of LAAC with the Watchman device relative to apixaban and aspirin therapy in patients with non-valvular AF and contraindications to warfarin therapy. Methods and results A cost-effectiveness model was constructed using data from three studies on stroke prevention in patients with contraindications: the ASAP study evaluating the Watchman device, the ACTIVE A trial of aspirin and clopidogrel, and the AVERROES trial evaluating apixaban. The cost-effectiveness analysis was conducted from a German healthcare payer perspective over a 20-year time horizon. Left atrial appendage closure yielded more quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) than aspirin and apixaban by 2 and 4 years, respectively. At 5 years, LAAC was cost effective compared with aspirin with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of €16 971. Left atrial appendage closure was cost effective compared with apixaban at 7 years with an ICER of €9040. Left atrial appendage closure was cost saving and more effective than aspirin and apixaban at 8 years and remained so throughout the 20-year time horizon. Conclusions This analysis demonstrates that LAAC with the Watchman device is a cost-effective and cost-saving solution for stroke risk reduction in patients with non-valvular AF who are at risk for stroke but have contraindications to warfarin. PMID:26838691

Computerised interventions designed to reduce potentially inappropriate prescribing in hospitalised older adults: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Dalton, Kieran; O'Brien, Gary; O'Mahony, Denis; Byrne, Stephen

2018-06-08

computerised interventions have been suggested as an effective strategy to reduce potentially inappropriate prescribing (PIP) for hospitalised older adults. This systematic review and meta-analysis examined the evidence for efficacy of computerised interventions designed to reduce PIP in this patient group. an electronic literature search was conducted using eight databases up to October 2017. Included studies were controlled trials of computerised interventions aiming to reduce PIP in hospitalised older adults (≥65 years). Risk of bias was assessed using Cochrane's Effective Practice and Organisation of Care criteria. of 653 records identified, eight studies were included-two randomised controlled trials, two interrupted time series analysis studies and four controlled before-after studies. Included studies were mostly at a low risk of bias. Overall, seven studies showed either a statistically significant reduction in the proportion of patients prescribed a potentially inappropriate medicine (PIM) (absolute risk reduction {ARR} 1.3-30.1%), or in PIMs ordered (ARR 2-5.9%). However, there is insufficient evidence thus far to suggest that these interventions can routinely improve patient-related outcomes. It was only possible to include three studies in the meta-analysis-which demonstrated that intervention patients were less likely to be prescribed a PIM (odds ratio 0.6; 95% CI 0.38, 0.93). No computerised intervention targeting potential prescribing omissions (PPOs) was identified. this systematic review concludes that computerised interventions are capable of statistically significantly reducing PIMs in hospitalised older adults. Future interventions should strive to target both PIMs and PPOs, ideally demonstrating both cost-effectiveness data and clinically significant improvements in patient-related outcomes.

Flux and permanence of risk perceptions: Tourists' perception of the relative and absolute risk for various destinations.

PubMed

Wolff, Katharina; Larsen, Svein

2016-12-01

The present investigation is a cross-sectional, multi-national, quantitative, and quasi-experimental comparison of tourists' risk perceptions regarding different destinations throughout the past decade. Over 10,000 tourists to Norway from 89 different countries filled in a questionnaire rating the perceived risk for various destinations. Data were collected during 2004, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2015 and allow for a comparison of perceived risk across time, place and nationality. Results show that while absolute risk judgments for different destinations fluctuate somewhat over the years, relative risk judgments remain constant. Findings also reveal a "home-is-safer-then-abroad-bias" with tourists consistently perceiving their home country among the safest destinations. The current investigation is rare because it looks at more than one destination at a time. Insights gained from the present findings diverge from what would have been concluded from employing case studies, that is, looking at one destination at a time. © 2016 The Authors. Scandinavian Journal of Psychology published by Scandinavian Psychological Associations and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Background risk of breast cancer and the association between physical activity and mammographic density.

PubMed

Trinh, Thang; Eriksson, Mikael; Darabi, Hatef; Bonn, Stephanie E; Brand, Judith S; Cuzick, Jack; Czene, Kamila; Sjölander, Arvid; Bälter, Katarina; Hall, Per

2015-04-02

High physical activity has been shown to decrease the risk of breast cancer, potentially by a mechanism that also reduces mammographic density. We tested the hypothesis that the risk of developing breast cancer in the next 10 years according to the Tyrer-Cuzick prediction model influences the association between physical activity and mammographic density. We conducted a population-based cross-sectional study of 38,913 Swedish women aged 40-74 years. Physical activity was assessed using the validated web-questionnaire Active-Q and mammographic density was measured by the fully automated volumetric Volpara method. The 10-year risk of breast cancer was estimated using the Tyrer-Cuzick (TC) prediction model. Linear regression analyses were performed to assess the association between physical activity and volumetric mammographic density and the potential interaction with the TC breast cancer risk. Overall, high physical activity was associated with lower absolute dense volume. As compared to women with the lowest total activity level (<40 metabolic equivalent hours [MET-h] per day), women with the highest total activity level (≥50 MET-h/day) had an estimated 3.4 cm(3) (95% confidence interval, 2.3-4.7) lower absolute dense volume. The inverse association was seen for any type of physical activity among women with <3.0% TC 10-year risk, but only for total and vigorous activities among women with 3.0-4.9% TC risk, and only for vigorous activity among women with ≥5.0% TC risk. The association between total activity and absolute dense volume was modified by the TC breast cancer risk (P interaction = 0.05). As anticipated, high physical activity was also associated with lower non-dense volume. No consistent association was found between physical activity and percent dense volume. Our results suggest that physical activity may decrease breast cancer risk through reducing mammographic density, and that the physical activity needed to reduce mammographic density may depend on background risk of breast cancer.

Fertility treatment and risk of childhood and adolescent mental disorders: register based cohort study

PubMed Central

Mortensen, Erik Lykke; Hvidtjørn, Dorte; Kesmodel, Ulrik Schiøler

2013-01-01

Objective To assess the mental health of children born after fertility treatment by comparing their risk of mental disorders with that of spontaneously conceived children. Design Prospective register based cohort study. Setting Nationwide register based information from Danish National Health Registers cross linked by a unique personal identification number assigned to all citizens in Denmark. Participants All children born in Denmark in 1995-2003 with follow-up in 2012 when the children were aged 8-17; 33 139 children were conceived after fertility treatment and 555 828 children were born after spontaneous conception. Main outcome measures Absolute risks and hazard ratios for overall and specific mental disorders estimated with adjustment for potential confounding variables. Estimated association between the risk of mental disorders and subtypes of procedures, hormone treatments, gamete types, and cause of infertility. Results The risk of mental disorders in children born after in vitro fertilisation or intracytoplasmic sperm injection was low, and was no higher than in spontaneously conceived children, except for a borderline significant increased risk of tic disorders (hazard ratio 1.40, 95% confidence interval 1.01 to 1.95; absolute risk 0.3%). In contrast, children born after ovulation induction with or without insemination had low but significantly increased risks of any mental disorder (1.20, 1.11 to 1.31; absolute risk 4.1%), autism spectrum disorders (1.20, 1.05 to 1.37; 1.5%), hyperkinetic disorders (1.23, 1.08 to 1.40; 1.7%), conduct, emotional, or social disorder (1.21, 1.02 to 1.45; 0.8%), and tic disorders (1.51, 1.16 to 1.96; 0.4%). There was no risk systematically related to any specific type of hormone drug treatment. Conclusions There was a small increase in the incidence of mental disorders in children born after ovulation induction/intrauterine insemination. Children born after in vitro fertilisation/intracytoplasmic sperm injection were found to have overall risk comparable with children conceived spontaneously. PMID:23833075

Impact of the Absolute Difference in Diastolic Blood Pressure Between Arms in Patients With Coronary Artery Disease

PubMed Central

Hitaka, Yuka; Miura, Shin-ichiro; Koyoshi, Rie; Shiga, Yuhei; Miyase, Yuiko; Norimatsu, Kenji; Nakamura, Ayumi; Adachi, Sen; Kuwano, Takashi; Sugihara, Makoto; Ike, Amane; Nishikawa, Hiroaki; Saku, Keijiro

2015-01-01

Background We investigated the relationship between the severity and presence of coronary artery disease (CAD) and a difference in systolic and diastolic blood pressure (SBP and DBP) between arms or between lower limbs. Methods We enrolled 277 patients who underwent coronary angiography. We calculated the absolute (|right BP (rt. BP) - left BP (lt. BP)|) and relative (rt. BP - lt. BP) differences in SBP or DBP between arms or between lower limbs, and assessed the severity of CAD in terms of the Gensini score. Results The absolute difference in DBP between arms in the CAD group was significantly lower than that in the non-CAD group, whereas the absolute difference in DBP between lower limbs in the CAD group was significantly higher. There were no differences in the absolute or relative difference in SBP between arms or lower limbs between the groups. The absolute difference in DBP between arms decreased as the Gensini score increased. In a logistic regression analysis, the presence of CAD was independently associated with the absolute difference in DBP between arms, in addition to male, family history, dyslipidemia, diabetes mellitus and hypertension. Conclusion The absolute difference in DBP between arms in addition to traditional factors may be a critical risk factor for the presence of CAD. PMID:26491500

Impact of the Absolute Difference in Diastolic Blood Pressure Between Arms in Patients With Coronary Artery Disease.

PubMed

Hitaka, Yuka; Miura, Shin-Ichiro; Koyoshi, Rie; Shiga, Yuhei; Miyase, Yuiko; Norimatsu, Kenji; Nakamura, Ayumi; Adachi, Sen; Kuwano, Takashi; Sugihara, Makoto; Ike, Amane; Nishikawa, Hiroaki; Saku, Keijiro

2015-11-01

We investigated the relationship between the severity and presence of coronary artery disease (CAD) and a difference in systolic and diastolic blood pressure (SBP and DBP) between arms or between lower limbs. We enrolled 277 patients who underwent coronary angiography. We calculated the absolute (|right BP (rt. BP) - left BP (lt. BP)|) and relative (rt. BP - lt. BP) differences in SBP or DBP between arms or between lower limbs, and assessed the severity of CAD in terms of the Gensini score. The absolute difference in DBP between arms in the CAD group was significantly lower than that in the non-CAD group, whereas the absolute difference in DBP between lower limbs in the CAD group was significantly higher. There were no differences in the absolute or relative difference in SBP between arms or lower limbs between the groups. The absolute difference in DBP between arms decreased as the Gensini score increased. In a logistic regression analysis, the presence of CAD was independently associated with the absolute difference in DBP between arms, in addition to male, family history, dyslipidemia, diabetes mellitus and hypertension. The absolute difference in DBP between arms in addition to traditional factors may be a critical risk factor for the presence of CAD.

The subtype of alpha-adrenoceptor involved in the neural control of renal tubular sodium reabsorption in the rabbit.

PubMed Central

Hesse, I F; Johns, E J

1984-01-01

A study was undertaken in pentobarbitone anaesthetized rabbits, undergoing a saline diuresis, to determine the subtype of alpha-adrenoceptor mediating renal tubular sodium reabsorption. Stimulation of the renal nerves at low rates, to cause an 11% fall in renal blood flow, did not change glomerular filtration rate but significantly reduced urine flow rate, and absolute and fractional sodium excretions by approximately 40%. These responses were reproducible in different groups of animals and with time. Renal nerve stimulation during an intra-renal arterial infusion of prazosin, to block alpha 1-adrenoceptors, had no effect on the renal haemodynamic response but completely abolished the reductions in urine flow rate, and absolute and fractional sodium excretion. During intra-renal arterial infusion of yohimbine, to block renal alpha 2-adrenoceptors, stimulation of the renal nerves to cause similar renal haemodynamic changes resulted in significantly larger reductions in urine flow rate, and absolute and fractional sodium excretion of about 52-58%. These results indicate that in the rabbit alpha 1-adrenoceptors are present on the renal tubules, which mediate the increase in sodium reabsorption caused by renal nerve stimulation. They further suggest the presence of presynaptic alpha 2-adrenoceptors on those nerves innervating the renal tubules. PMID:6086915

Aspirin in Older Adults: Need for Wider Utilization in Secondary Prevention and Individual Clinical Judgments in Primary Prevention.

PubMed

Sehgal, Mandi; Wood, Sarah K; Ouslander, Joseph G; Hennekens, Charles H

2017-11-01

In the treatment or secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD), there is general consensus that the absolute benefits of aspirin far outweigh the absolute risks. Despite evidence from randomized trials and their meta-analyses, older adults, defined as aged 65 years or older, are less likely to be prescribed aspirin than their middle-aged counterparts. In primary prevention, the optimal utilization of aspirin is widely debated. There is insufficient randomized evidence among apparently healthy participants at moderate to high risk of a first CVD event, so general guidelines seem premature. Among older adults, randomized data are even more sparse but trials are ongoing. Further, older adults commonly take multiple medications due to comorbidities, which may increase deleterious interactions and side effects. Older adults have higher risks of occlusive events as well as bleeding. All these considerations support the need for individual clinical judgments in prescribing aspirin in the context of therapeutic lifestyle changes and other adjunctive drug therapies. These include statins for lipids and usually multiple drugs to achieve control of high blood pressure. As regards aspirin, the clinician should weigh the absolute benefit on occlusion against the absolute risk of bleeding. These issues should be considered with each patient to facilitate an informed and person-centered individual clinical judgment. The use of aspirin in primary prevention is particularly attractive because the drug is generally over the counter and, for developing countries where CVD is becoming the leading cause of death, is extremely inexpensive. The more widespread use of aspirin in older adults with prior CVD will confer net benefits to risks and even larger net benefits to costs in the United States as well as other developed and developing countries. In primary prevention among older adults, individual clinical judgments should be made by the health-care professional and each of his or her patients.

Persistent socioeconomic inequalities in cardiovascular risk factors in England over 1994-2008: A time-trend analysis of repeated cross-sectional data

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Our aims were to determine the pace of change in cardiovascular risk factors by age, gender and socioeconomic groups from 1994 to 2008, and quantify the magnitude, direction and change in absolute and relative inequalities. Methods Time trend analysis was used to measure change in absolute and relative inequalities in risk factors by gender and age (16-54, ≥ 55 years), using repeated cross-sectional data from the Health Survey for England 1994-2008. Seven risk factors were examined: smoking, obesity, diabetes, high blood pressure, raised cholesterol, consumption of five or more daily portions of fruit and vegetables, and physical activity. Socioeconomic group was measured using the Index of Multiple Deprivation 2007. Results Between 1994 and 2008, the prevalence of smoking, high blood pressure and raised cholesterol decreased in most deprivation quintiles. However, obesity and diabetes increased. Increasing absolute inequalities were found in obesity in older men and women (p = 0.044 and p = 0.027 respectively), diabetes in young men and older women (p = 0.036 and p = 0.019 respectively), and physical activity in older women (p = 0.025). Relative inequality increased in high blood pressure in young women (p = 0.005). The prevalence of raised cholesterol showed widening absolute and relative inverse gradients from 1998 onwards in older men (p = 0.004 and p ≤ 0.001 respectively) and women (p ≤ 0.001 and p ≤ 0.001). Conclusions Favourable trends in smoking, blood pressure and cholesterol are consistent with falling coronary heart disease death rates. However, adverse trends in obesity and diabetes are likely to counteract some of these gains. Furthermore, little progress over the last 15 years has been made towards reducing inequalities. Implementation of known effective population based approaches in combination with interventions targeted at individuals/subgroups with poorer cardiovascular risk profiles are therefore recommended to reduce social inequalities. PMID:22333887

Erythropoietin-Stimulating Agents and Survival in End-Stage Renal Disease: Comparison of Payment Policy Analysis, Instrumental Variables, and Multiple Imputation of Potential Outcomes

PubMed Central

Dore, David D.; Swaminathan, Shailender; Gutman, Roee; Trivedi, Amal N.; Mor, Vincent

2013-01-01

Objective To compare the assumptions and estimands across three approaches to estimating the effect of erythropoietin-stimulating agents (ESAs) on mortality. Study Design and Setting Using data from the Renal Management Information System, we conducted two analyses utilizing a change to bundled payment that we hypothesized mimicked random assignment to ESA (pre-post, difference-in-difference, and instrumental variable analyses). A third analysis was based on multiply imputing potential outcomes using propensity scores. Results There were 311,087 recipients of ESAs and 13,095 non-recipients. In the pre-post comparison, we identified no clear relationship between bundled payment (measured by calendar time) and the incidence of death within six months (risk difference -1.5%; 95% CI - 7.0% to 4.0%). In the instrumental variable analysis, the risk of mortality was similar among ESA recipients (risk difference -0.9%; 95% CI -2.1 to 0.3). In the multiple imputation analysis, we observed a 4.2% (95% CI 3.4% to 4.9%) absolute reduction in mortality risk with use of ESAs, but closer to the null for patients with baseline hematocrit >36%. Conclusion Methods emanating from different disciplines often rely on different assumptions, but can be informative about a similar causal contrast. The implications of these distinct approaches are discussed. PMID:23849152

Taxing sugar-sweetened beverages: impact on overweight and obesity in Germany.

PubMed

Schwendicke, Falk; Stolpe, Michael

2017-01-17

Consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) increases the risk of overweight and obesity. Taxing SSBs could decrease daily energy consumption and body weight. This model-based study evaluated the impact of a 20% SSB-sales tax on overweight and obesity in the context of Germany. The population aged 15-79 years was modelled. Taxation was assumed to affect energy consumption via demand elasticities, which affected weight and BMI. Model-based analysis was performed to estimate the tax impact on BMI in different age, gender and income groups. Implementing a 20% SSB tax reduced energy consumption mainly in younger age groups, males, and those with low income. Taxation decreased the mean BMI in younger groups, with the largest decrease in those aged 20-29 years, while effects in groups 60 years or above were minimal. In absolute terms, taxation was estimated to avoid 1,028,000 (-3% relative reduction) overweight individuals and 479,000 obese individuals (-4%). Overweight decreased the most in males aged 20-29 years (408,000 fewer cases /-22%), the same applied for obesity (204,000/-22%). An SSB tax could have significant impact on overweight and obesity, which could translate into substantial reductions of morbidity and mortality.

Prevention of chronic lung disease

PubMed Central

Laughon, Matthew M.; Smith, P. Brian; Bose, Carl

2010-01-01

Considerable effort has been devoted to the development of strategies to reduce the incidence of chronic lung disease, including use of medications, nutritional therapies, and respiratory care practices. Unfortunately, most of these strategies have not been successful. To date, the only two treatments developed specifically to prevent CLD whose efficacy is supported by evidence from randomized, controlled trials are the parenteral administration of vitamin A and corticosteroids. Two other therapies, the use of caffeine for the treatment of apnea of prematurity and aggressive phototherapy for the treatment of hyperbilirubinemia were evaluated for the improvement of other outcomes and found to reduce CLD. Cohort studies suggest that the use of CPAP as a strategy for avoiding mechanical ventilation might also be beneficial. Other therapies reduce lung injury in animal models but do not appear to reduce CLD in humans. The benefits of the efficacious therapies have been modest, with an absolute risk reduction in the 7–11% range. Further preventive strategies are needed to reduce the burden of this disease. However, each will need to be tested in randomized, controlled trials, and the expectations of new therapies should be modest reductions of the incidence of the disease. PMID:19736053

Tobacco harm reduction: an alternative cessation strategy for inveterate smokers

PubMed Central

Rodu, Brad; Godshall, William T

2006-01-01

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, about 45 million Americans continue to smoke, even after one of the most intense public health campaigns in history, now over 40 years old. Each year some 438,000 smokers die from smoking-related diseases, including lung and other cancers, cardiovascular disorders and pulmonary diseases. Many smokers are unable – or at least unwilling – to achieve cessation through complete nicotine and tobacco abstinence; they continue smoking despite the very real and obvious adverse health consequences. Conventional smoking cessation policies and programs generally present smokers with two unpleasant alternatives: quit, or die. A third approach to smoking cessation, tobacco harm reduction, involves the use of alternative sources of nicotine, including modern smokeless tobacco products. A substantial body of research, much of it produced over the past decade, establishes the scientific and medical foundation for tobacco harm reduction using smokeless tobacco products. This report provides a description of traditional and modern smokeless tobacco products, and of the prevalence of their use in the United States and Sweden. It reviews the epidemiologic evidence for low health risks associated with smokeless use, both in absolute terms and in comparison to the much higher risks of smoking. The report also describes evidence that smokeless tobacco has served as an effective substitute for cigarettes among Swedish men, who consequently have among the lowest smoking-related mortality rates in the developed world. The report documents the fact that extensive misinformation about ST products is widely available from ostensibly reputable sources, including governmental health agencies and major health organizations. The American Council on Science and Health believes that strong support of tobacco harm reduction is fully consistent with its mission to promote sound science in regulation and in public policy, and to assist consumers in distinguishing real health threats from spurious health claims. As this report documents, there is a strong scientific and medical foundation for tobacco harm reduction, and it shows great potential as a public health strategy to help millions of smokers. PMID:17184539

Long-term neuromuscular training and ankle joint position sense.

PubMed

Kynsburg, A; Pánics, G; Halasi, T

2010-06-01

Preventive effect of proprioceptive training is proven by decreasing injury incidence, but its proprioceptive mechanism is not. Major hypothesis: the training has a positive long-term effect on ankle joint position sense in athletes of a high-risk sport (handball). Ten elite-level female handball-players represented the intervention group (training-group), 10 healthy athletes of other sports formed the control-group. Proprioceptive training was incorporated into the regular training regimen of the training-group. Ankle joint position sense function was measured with the "slope-box" test, first described by Robbins et al. Testing was performed one day before the intervention and 20 months later. Mean absolute estimate errors were processed for statistical analysis. Proprioceptive sensory function improved regarding all four directions with a high significance (p<0.0001; avg. mean estimate error improvement: 1.77 degrees). This was also highly significant (p< or =0.0002) in each single directions, with avg. mean estimate error improvement between 1.59 degrees (posterior) and 2.03 degrees (anterior). Mean absolute estimate errors at follow-up (2.24 degrees +/-0.88 degrees) were significantly lower than in uninjured controls (3.29 degrees +/-1.15 degrees) (p<0.0001). Long-term neuromuscular training has improved ankle joint position sense function in the investigated athletes. This joint position sense improvement can be one of the explanations for injury rate reduction effect of neuromuscular training.

Large-Scale Simulation of Multi-Asset Ising Financial Markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takaishi, Tetsuya

2017-03-01

We perform a large-scale simulation of an Ising-based financial market model that includes 300 asset time series. The financial system simulated by the model shows a fat-tailed return distribution and volatility clustering and exhibits unstable periods indicated by the volatility index measured as the average of absolute-returns. Moreover, we determine that the cumulative risk fraction, which measures the system risk, changes at high volatility periods. We also calculate the inverse participation ratio (IPR) and its higher-power version, IPR6, from the absolute-return cross-correlation matrix. Finally, we show that the IPR and IPR6 also change at high volatility periods.

Neurologic complications in common wrist and hand surgical procedures

PubMed Central

Verdecchia, Nicole; Johnson, Julie; Baratz, Mark; Orebaugh, Steven

2018-01-01

Nerve dysfunction after upper extremity orthopedic surgery is a recognized complication, and may result from a variety of different causes. Hand and wrist surgery require incisions and retraction that necessarily border on small peripheral nerves, which may be difficult to identify and protect with absolute certainty. This article reviews the rates and ranges of reported nerve dysfunction with respect to common surgical interventions for the distal upper extremity, including wrist arthroplasty, wrist arthrodesis, wrist arthroscopy, distal radius open reduction and internal fixation, carpal tunnel release, and thumb carpometacarpal surgery. A relatively large range of neurologic complications is reported, however many of the studies cited involve relatively small numbers of patients, and only rarely are neurologic complications included as primary outcome measures. Knowledge of these neurologic outcomes should help the surgeon to better counsel patients with regard to perioperative risk, as well as provide insight into workup and management of any adverse neurologic outcomes that may arise.

Mindfulness Meditation for Substance Use Disorders: A Systematic Review

PubMed Central

Zgierska, Aleksandra; Rabago, David; Chawla, Neharika; Kushner, Kenneth; Koehler, Robert; Marlatt, Allan

2009-01-01

Relapse is common in substance use disorders (SUDs), even among treated individuals. The goal of this article was to systematically review the existing evidence on mindfulness meditation-based interventions (MM) for SUDs. The comprehensive search for and review of literature found over 2,000 abstracts and resulted in 25 eligible manuscripts (22 published, 3 unpublished: 8 RCTs, 7 controlled non-randomized, 6 non-controlled prospective, 2 qualitative studies, 1 case report). When appropriate, methodological quality, absolute risk reduction, number needed to treat, and effect size (ES) were assessed. Overall, although preliminary evidence suggests MM efficacy and safety, conclusive data for MM as a treatment of SUDs are lacking. Significant methodological limitations exist in most studies. Further, it is unclear which persons with SUDs might benefit most from MM. Future trials must be of sufficient sample size to answer a specific clinical question and should target both assessment of effect size and mechanisms of action. PMID:19904664

JUPITER to Earth: A statin helps people with normal LDL-C and high hs-CRP, but what does it mean?

PubMed Central

SHISHEHBOR, MEHDI H.; HAZEN, STANLEY L.

2010-01-01

The JUPITER trial (Justification for the Use of Statins in Prevention: an Intervention Trial Evaluating Rosuvastatin) (N Engl J Med 2008; 359:2195–2207) compared rosuvastatin (Crestor) 20 mg daily vs placebo in apparently healthy people who had levels of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) lower than 130 mg/dL but elevated levels (≥ 2 mg/L) of high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP). Rosuvastatin treatment lowered LDL-C levels by 50% and hs-CRP levels by 37%, accompanied by a 44% relative risk reduction in the composite end point of unstable angina, revascularization, and confirmed death from cardiovascular causes. In absolute terms, 95 people had to be treated over 2 years to prevent one event. There was, however, a higher incidence of diabetes in the rosuvastatin group. PMID:19122109

Granulocyte colony stimulating factor (G-CSF) can allow treatment with clozapine in a patient with severe benign ethnic neutropaenia (BEN): a case report.

PubMed

Spencer, Benjamin W J; Williams, Hugh R J; Gee, Siobhan H; Whiskey, Eromona; Rodrigues, Joseph P; Mijovic, Aleksandar; MacCabe, James H

2012-09-01

Clozapine is the treatment of choice for treatment-resistant schizophrenia, but it is associated with a risk of neutropaenia and agranulocytosis. Clozapine use is regulated by mandatory blood monitoring in the UK, requiring cessation of treatment should the absolute neutrophil count (ANC) drop below specified values. Benign reductions in the ANC in non-white populations are common, and this can preclude a patient from receiving treatment with clozapine. A diagnosis of benign ethnic neutropaenia can reduce these treatment restrictions (UK specific), but the degree of neutropaenia can be significant enough to still prevent treatment. In this report, we show that response to granulocyte colony stimulating factor (G-CSF) may be quite variable and difficult to predict, but with careful monitoring it can be used to increase the ANC count and allow continued treatment with clozapine.

Topical herbal therapies for treating osteoarthritis

PubMed Central

Cameron, Melainie; Chrubasik, Sigrun

2014-01-01

Background Before extraction and synthetic chemistry were invented, musculoskeletal complaints were treated with preparations from medicinal plants. They were either administered orally or topically. In contrast to the oral medicinal plant products, topicals act in part as counterirritants or are toxic when given orally. Objectives To update the previous Cochrane review of herbal therapy for osteoarthritis from 2000 by evaluating the evidence on effectiveness for topical medicinal plant products. Search methods Databases for mainstream and complementary medicine were searched using terms to include all forms of arthritis combined with medicinal plant products. We searched electronic databases (Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL),MEDLINE, EMBASE, AMED, CINAHL, ISI Web of Science, World Health Organization Clinical Trials Registry Platform) to February 2013, unrestricted by language. We also searched the reference lists from retrieved trials. Selection criteria Randomised controlled trials of herbal interventions used topically, compared with inert (placebo) or active controls, in people with osteoarthritis were included. Data collection and analysis Two review authors independently selected trials for inclusion, assessed the risk of bias of included studies and extracted data. Main results Seven studies (seven different medicinal plant interventions; 785 participants) were included. Single studies (five studies, six interventions) and non-comparable studies (two studies, one intervention) precluded pooling of results. Moderate evidence from a single study of 174 people with hand osteoarthritis indicated that treatment with Arnica extract gel probably results in similar benefits as treatment with ibuprofen (non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug) with a similar number of adverse events. Mean pain in the ibuprofen group was 44.2 points on a 100 point scale; treatment with Arnica gel reduced the pain by 4 points after three weeks: mean difference (MD) −3.8 points (95% confidence intervals (CI) −10.1 to 2.5), absolute reduction 4% (10% reduction to 3% increase). Hand function was 7.5 points on a 30 point scale in the ibuprofen-treated group; treatment with Arnica gel reduced function by 0.4 points (MD −0.4, 95% CI −1.75 to 0.95), absolute improvement 1% (6% improvement to 3% decline)). Total adverse events were higher in the Arnica gel group (13% compared to 8% in the ibuprofen group): relative risk (RR) 1.65 (95% CI 0.72 to 3.76). Moderate quality evidence from a single trial of 99 people with knee osteoarthritis indicated that compared with placebo, Capsicum extract gel probably does not improve pain or knee function, and is commonly associated with treatment-related adverse events including skin irritation and a burning sensation. At four weeks follow-up, mean pain in the placebo group was 46 points on a 100 point scale; treatment with Capsicum extract reduced pain by 1 point (MD −1, 95%CI −6.8 to 4.8), absolute reduction of 1%(7%reduction to 5% increase). Mean knee function in the placebo group was 34.8 points on a 96 point scale at four weeks; treatment with Capsicum extract improved function by a mean of 2.6 points (MD −2.6, 95% CI −9.5 to 4.2), an absolute improvement of 3% (10% improvement to 4% decline). Adverse event rates were greater in the Capsicum extract group (80% compared with 20% in the placebo group, rate ratio 4.12, 95% CI 3.30 to 5.17). The number needed to treat to result in adverse events was 2 (95% CI 1 to 2). Moderate evidence from a single trial of 220 people with knee osteoarthritis suggested that comfrey extract gel probably improves pain without increasing adverse events. At three weeks, the mean pain in the placebo group was 83.5 points on a 100 point scale. Treatment with comfrey reduced pain by a mean of 41.5 points (MD −41.5, 95% CI −48 to −34), an absolute reduction of 42% (34% to 48% reduction). Function was not reported. Adverse events were similar: 6%(7/110) reported adverse events in the comfrey group compared with 14% (15/110) in the placebo group (RR 0.47, 95% CI 0.20 to 1.10). Although evidence from a single trial indicated that adhesive patches containing Chinese herbal mixtures FNZG and SJG may improve pain and function, the clinical applicability of these findings are uncertain because participants were only treated and followed up for seven days. We are also uncertain if other topical herbal products (Marhame-Mafasel compress, stinging nettle leaf) improve osteoarthritis symptoms due to the very low quality evidence from single trials. No serious side effects were reported. Authors’ conclusions Although the mechanism of action of the topical medicinal plant products provides a rationale basis for their use in the treatment of osteoarthritis, the quality and quantity of current research studies of effectiveness are insufficient. Arnica gel probably improves symptoms as effectively as a gel containing non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug, but with no better (and possibly worse) adverse event profile. Comfrey extract gel probably improves pain, and Capsicum extract gel probably will not improve pain or function at the doses examined in this review. Further high quality, fully powered studies are required to confirm the trends of effectiveness identifed in studies so far. PMID:23728701

Communicating data about the benefits and harms of treatment: a randomized trial.

PubMed

Woloshin, Steven; Schwartz, Lisa M

2011-07-19

Despite limited evidence, it is often asserted that natural frequencies (for example, 2 in 1000) are the best way to communicate absolute risks. To compare comprehension of treatment benefit and harm when absolute risks are presented as natural frequencies, percents, or both. Parallel-group randomized trial with central allocation and masking of investigators to group assignment, conducted through an Internet survey in September 2009. (ClinicalTrials.gov registration number: NCT00950014) National sample of U.S. adults randomly selected from a professional survey firm's research panel of about 30,000 households. 2944 adults aged 18 years or older (all with complete follow-up). Tables presenting absolute risks in 1 of 5 numeric formats: natural frequency (x in 1000), variable frequency (x in 100, x in 1000, or x in 10,000, as needed to keep the numerator >1), percent, percent plus natural frequency, or percent plus variable frequency. Comprehension as assessed by 18 questions (primary outcome) and judgment of treatment benefit and harm. The average number of comprehension questions answered correctly was lowest in the variable frequency group and highest in the percent group (13.1 vs. 13.8; difference, 0.7 [95% CI, 0.3 to 1.1]). The proportion of participants who "passed" the comprehension test (≥13 correct answers) was lowest in the natural and variable frequency groups and highest in the percent group (68% vs. 73%; difference, 5 percentage points [CI, 0 to 10 percentage points]). The largest format effect was seen for the 2 questions about absolute differences: the proportion correct in the natural frequency versus percent groups was 43% versus 72% (P < 0.001) and 73% versus 87% (P < 0.001). Even when data were presented in the percent format, one third of participants failed the comprehension test. Natural frequencies are not the best format for communicating the absolute benefits and harms of treatment. The more succinct percent format resulted in better comprehension: Comprehension was slightly better overall and notably better for absolute differences. Attorney General Consumer and Prescriber Education grant program, the Robert Wood Johnson Pioneer Program, and the National Cancer Institute.

Patient characteristics and factors associated with inter-arm difference of blood pressure measurements in a general population in Ohasama, Japan.

PubMed

Kimura, Atsushi; Hashimoto, Junichiro; Watabe, Daisuke; Takahashi, Hisaki; Ohkubo, Takayoshi; Kikuya, Masahiro; Imai, Yutaka

2004-12-01

To assess whether there is a natural difference in blood pressure (BP) measurements between the right and left arms, and to identify what factors are associated with this difference in a general population. The study subjects were 1090 individuals who participated in a medical check-up in Ohasama, Japan. The BP was measured simultaneously in both arms, using an automated device. The inter-arm BP difference was expressed as the relative difference [right-arm BP (R) minus left-arm BP (L): R - L] and the absolute difference (|R - L|). The relationship between inter-arm difference and various factors was analyzed using univariate analysis. The characteristics of subjects in whom the absolute systolic BP (SBP) difference was greater than 10 mmHg were analyzed using multivariate logistic analysis. The relative differences in SBP and diastolic BP (DBP) were -0.6 +/- 6.6 (mean +/- SD) and 1.1 +/- 4.7 mmHg, while the absolute differences were 4.9 +/- 4.4 and 3.7 +/- 3.0 mmHg. The absolute SBP difference was found to correlate significantly with age, body mass index, ankle-brachial index (ABI), and hypertension. Subjects with hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, obesity, elevated hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) and low ABI had a significant and independent increase in the risk of an absolute SBP difference greater than 10 mmHg. The results suggest that there is considerable difference in the measured BP in the right and left arms and that large differences in the absolute SBP are associated with risk factors for arteriosclerosis such as hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, obesity, metabolic abnormalities and low ABI.

Absolute change in fasting plasma glucose over 12 months is associated with 2-year and 5-year major adverse cardiovascular events in patients with drug-eluting stent implants.

PubMed

Kang, Dong Oh; Seo, Hong Seog; Choi, Byung Geol; Lee, Eunmi; Kim, Ji Park; Lee, Sun Ki; Im, Sung Il; Na, Jin Oh; Choi, Cheol Ung; Lim, Hong Euy; Kim, Jin Won; Kim, Eung Ju; Rha, Seung-Woon; Park, Chang Gyu; Oh, Dong Joo

2015-01-20

Major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs) in patients with or without cardiovascular disease (CVD) are greatly affected by various factors associated with metabolism and inflammation. To determine which clinical parameters at treatment are associated with the development of 2-year and 5-year MACEs in high-risk patients with CVD who have undergone drug-eluting stent (DES) implantation. The present study involved a total of 432 patients who underwent percutaneous coronary intervention with DES. Variables representing the average and absolute amount of change in clinical parameters over the 12-month follow-up were assessed for association with 2-year and 5-year development of MACE. The study population was divided into quartiles for the variable showing the highest correlation to MACE development. Estimated incidence of 2-year and 5-year MACEs for each of the quartiles was determined by survival curve analysis, and subgroup analysis was performed for patients with diabetes and statin users. Absolute change in fasting plasma glucose (FPG) over 12 months showed the highest correlation with 2-year and 5-year MACE development. The estimated incidence of MACE increased with increasing quartiles for absolute change in FPG. The association between absolute change in FPG and MACE development exhibited a stronger relationship for the specific subgroups of patients with diabetes and statin users. Increases and decreases in FPG had a comparable contribution to MACE development. A greater absolute change in FPG over 12 months post-PCI is an independent risk factor for 2-year and 5-year MACE development in DES-implanted patients, especially in the diabetes and statin users. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

The visual communication of risk.

PubMed

Lipkus, I M; Hollands, J G

1999-01-01

This paper 1) provides reasons why graphics should be effective aids to communicate risk; 2) reviews the use of visuals, especially graphical displays, to communicate risk; 3) discusses issues to consider when designing graphs to communicate risk; and 4) provides suggestions for future research. Key articles and materials were obtained from MEDLINE(R) and PsychInfo(R) databases, from reference article citations, and from discussion with experts in risk communication. Research has been devoted primarily to communicating risk magnitudes. Among the various graphical displays, the risk ladder appears to be a promising tool for communicating absolute and relative risks. Preliminary evidence suggests that people understand risk information presented in histograms and pie charts. Areas that need further attention include 1) applying theoretical models to the visual communication of risk, 2) testing which graphical displays can be applied best to different risk communication tasks (e.g., which graphs best convey absolute or relative risks), 3) communicating risk uncertainty, and 4) testing whether the lay public's perceptions and understanding of risk varies by graphical format and whether the addition of graphical displays improves comprehension substantially beyond numerical or narrative translations of risk and, if so, by how much. There is a need to ascertain the extent to which graphics and other visuals enhance the public's understanding of disease risk to facilitate decision-making and behavioral change processes. Nine suggestions are provided to help achieve these ends.

Prognostic significance of peripheral monocyte count in patients with extranodal natural killer/T-cell lymphoma.

PubMed

Huang, Jia-Jia; Li, Ya-Jun; Xia, Yi; Wang, Yu; Wei, Wen-Xiao; Zhu, Ying-Jie; Lin, Tong-Yu; Huang, Hui-Qiang; Jiang, Wen-Qi; Li, Zhi-Ming

2013-05-03

Extranodal natural killer/T-cell lymphoma (ENKL) has heterogeneous clinical manifestations and prognosis. This study aims to evaluate the prognostic impact of absolute monocyte count (AMC) in ENKL, and provide some immunologically relevant information for better risk stratification in patients with ENKL. Retrospective data from 163 patients newly diagnosed with ENKL were analyzed. The absolute monocyte count (AMC) at diagnosis was analyzed as continuous and dichotomized variables. Independent prognostic factors of survival were determined by Cox regression analysis. The AMC at diagnosis were related to overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) in patients with ENKL. Multivariate analysis identified AMC as independent prognostic factors of survival, independent of International Prognostic Index (IPI) and Korean prognostic index (KPI). The prognostic index incorporating AMC and absolute lymphocyte count (ALC), another surrogate factor of immune status, could be used to stratify all 163 patients with ENKL into different prognostic groups. For patients who received chemotherapy followed by radiotherapy (102 cases), the three AMC/ALC index categories identified patients with significantly different survivals. When superimposed on IPI or KPI categories, the AMC/ALC index was better able to identify high-risk patients in the low-risk IPI or KPI category. The baseline peripheral monocyte count is shown to be an effective prognostic indicator of survival in ENKL patients. The prognostic index related to tumor microenvironment might be helpful to identify high-risk patients with ENKL.

Zero tolerance prescribing: a strategy to reduce prescribing errors on the paediatric intensive care unit.

PubMed

Booth, Rachelle; Sturgess, Emma; Taberner-Stokes, Alison; Peters, Mark

2012-11-01

To establish the baseline prescribing error rate in a tertiary paediatric intensive care unit (PICU) and to determine the impact of a zero tolerance prescribing (ZTP) policy incorporating a dedicated prescribing area and daily feedback of prescribing errors. A prospective, non-blinded, observational study was undertaken in a 12-bed tertiary PICU over a period of 134 weeks. Baseline prescribing error data were collected on weekdays for all patients for a period of 32 weeks, following which the ZTP policy was introduced. Daily error feedback was introduced after a further 12 months. Errors were sub-classified as 'clinical', 'non-clinical' and 'infusion prescription' errors and the effects of interventions considered separately. The baseline combined prescribing error rate was 892 (95 % confidence interval (CI) 765-1,019) errors per 1,000 PICU occupied bed days (OBDs), comprising 25.6 % clinical, 44 % non-clinical and 30.4 % infusion prescription errors. The combined interventions of ZTP plus daily error feedback were associated with a reduction in the combined prescribing error rate to 447 (95 % CI 389-504) errors per 1,000 OBDs (p < 0.0001), an absolute risk reduction of 44.5 % (95 % CI 40.8-48.0 %). Introduction of the ZTP policy was associated with a significant decrease in clinical and infusion prescription errors, while the introduction of daily error feedback was associated with a significant reduction in non-clinical prescribing errors. The combined interventions of ZTP and daily error feedback were associated with a significant reduction in prescribing errors in the PICU, in line with Department of Health requirements of a 40 % reduction within 5 years.

Determining When to Add Nonstatin Therapy: A Quantitative Approach.

PubMed

Robinson, Jennifer G; Huijgen, Roeland; Ray, Kausik; Persons, Jane; Kastelein, John J P; Pencina, Michael J

2016-12-06

Costs and uncertainty about the benefits of nonstatin therapies limit their use. The authors sought to identify patients who might benefit from the addition of a nonstatin to background statin therapy. We performed systematic reviews of subgroup analyses from randomized trials and observational studies with statin-treated participants to determine estimated 10-year absolute risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) and to define high-risk and very high-risk patients. We used the relative risk reductions for the addition of a nonstatin to lower low-density lipoprotein (LDL-C) used to determine the number needed to treat (NNT) to prevent 1 ASCVD event over 5 years for each patient group and to allow comparisons with 5-year cost analyses. The 10-year ASCVD risk is at least 30% (very high risk) for statin-treated participants with clinical ASCVD and comorbidities, and 20% to 29% (high risk) for those with ASCVD without comorbidities or who have heterozygous familial hypercholesterolemia. Adding ezetimibe to reduce low-density LDL-C by 20% would provide a 5-year NNT ≤50 for very high-risk patients with LDL-C ≥130 mg/dl or for high-risk patients with LDL-C ≥190 mg/dl, and an NNT ≤30 for very high-risk patients with LDL-C ≥160 mg/dl. Adding a PCSK9 monoclonal antibody to lower LDL-C by at least 50% would provide an NNT ≤50 for very high-risk and high-risk patients with LDL-C ≥70 mg/dl, and an NNT ≤30 for very high-risk and high-risk patients with an LDL-C ≥130 mg/dl. Adding ezetimibe or PCSK9 monoclonal antibodies to maximally tolerated statin therapy may be cost effective in very high-risk and high-risk patients, depending on baseline LDL-C levels. Copyright © 2016 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

COMMENT: Comment on 'Evaluation of the local value of the Earth gravity field in the context of the new definition of the kilogram'

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Svitlov, S. M.

2010-06-01

A recent paper (Baumann et al 2009 Metrologia 46 178-86) presents a method to evaluate the free-fall acceleration at a desired point in space, as required for the watt balance experiment. The claimed uncertainty of their absolute gravity measurements is supported by two bilateral comparisons using two absolute gravimeters of the same type. This comment discusses the case where absolute gravity measurements are traceable to a key comparison reference value. Such an approach produces a more complete uncertainty budget and reduces the risk of the results of different watt balance experiments not being compatible.

Fluctuation theorems in feedback-controlled open quantum systems: Quantum coherence and absolute irreversibility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murashita, Yûto; Gong, Zongping; Ashida, Yuto; Ueda, Masahito

2017-10-01

The thermodynamics of quantum coherence has attracted growing attention recently, where the thermodynamic advantage of quantum superposition is characterized in terms of quantum thermodynamics. We investigate the thermodynamic effects of quantum coherent driving in the context of the fluctuation theorem. We adopt a quantum-trajectory approach to investigate open quantum systems under feedback control. In these systems, the measurement backaction in the forward process plays a key role, and therefore the corresponding time-reversed quantum measurement and postselection must be considered in the backward process, in sharp contrast to the classical case. The state reduction associated with quantum measurement, in general, creates a zero-probability region in the space of quantum trajectories of the forward process, which causes singularly strong irreversibility with divergent entropy production (i.e., absolute irreversibility) and hence makes the ordinary fluctuation theorem break down. In the classical case, the error-free measurement ordinarily leads to absolute irreversibility, because the measurement restricts classical paths to the region compatible with the measurement outcome. In contrast, in open quantum systems, absolute irreversibility is suppressed even in the presence of the projective measurement due to those quantum rare events that go through the classically forbidden region with the aid of quantum coherent driving. This suppression of absolute irreversibility exemplifies the thermodynamic advantage of quantum coherent driving. Absolute irreversibility is shown to emerge in the absence of coherent driving after the measurement, especially in systems under time-delayed feedback control. We show that absolute irreversibility is mitigated by increasing the duration of quantum coherent driving or decreasing the delay time of feedback control.

Altered mental status in older adults with histamine2-receptor antagonists: a population-based study.

PubMed

Tawadrous, Davy; Dixon, Stephanie; Shariff, Salimah Z; Fleet, Jamie; Gandhi, Sonja; Jain, Arsh K; Weir, Matthew A; Gomes, Tara; Garg, Amit X

2014-10-01

Standard doses of histamine2-receptor antagonists (H2RAs) may induce altered mental status in older adults, especially in those with chronic kidney disease (CKD). Population-based cohort study of older adults who started a new H2RA between 2002 and 2011 was conducted. Ninety percent received the current standard H2RA dose in routine care. There was no significant difference in 27 baseline patient characteristics. The primary outcome was hospitalization with an urgent head computed tomography (CT) scan (proxy for altered mental status), and the secondary outcome was all-cause mortality also within 30days of a new H2RA prescription. Standard vs. low H2RA dose was associated with a higher risk of hospitalization with an urgent head CT scan (0.98% vs. 0.74%, absolute risk difference 0.24% [95% CI 0.11% to 0.36%], relative risk 1.33 [95% CI 1.12 to 1.58]). This risk was not modified by the presence of CKD (interaction P value=0.71). Standard vs. low H2RA dose was associated with a higher risk of mortality (1.07% vs.0.74%; absolute risk difference 0.34% [95% CI 0.20% to 0.46%], relative risk 1.46 [95% CI 1.23 to 1.73]). Compared to a lower dose, initiation of the current standard dose of H2RA in older adults is associated with a small absolute increase in the 30-day risk of altered mental status (using neuroimaging as a proxy), even in the absence of CKD. This risk may be avoided by initiating older adults on low doses of H2RAs for gastroesophogeal reflux disease, and increasing dosing as necessary for symptom control. Copyright © 2014 European Federation of Internal Medicine. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Absolute Risk of Venous Thrombosis after Air Travel: A Cohort Study of 8,755 Employees of International Organisations

PubMed Central

Kuipers, Saskia; Cannegieter, Suzanne C; Middeldorp, Saskia; Robyn, Luc; Büller, Harry R; Rosendaal, Frits R

2007-01-01

Background The risk of venous thrombosis is approximately 2- to 4-fold increased after air travel, but the absolute risk is unknown. The objective of this study was to assess the absolute risk of venous thrombosis after air travel. Methods and Findings We conducted a cohort study among employees of large international companies and organisations, who were followed between 1 January 2000 and 31 December 2005. The occurrence of symptomatic venous thrombosis was linked to exposure to air travel, as assessed by travel records provided by the companies and organisations. A long-haul flight was defined as a flight of at least 4 h and participants were considered exposed for a postflight period of 8 wk. A total of 8,755 employees were followed during a total follow-up time of 38,910 person-years (PY). The total time employees were exposed to a long-haul flight was 6,872 PY. In the follow-up period, 53 thromboses occurred, 22 of which within 8 wk of a long-haul flight, yielding an incidence rate of 3.2/1,000 PY, as compared to 1.0/1,000 PY in individuals not exposed to air travel (incidence rate ratio 3.2, 95% confidence interval 1.8–5.6). This rate was equivalent to a risk of one event per 4,656 long-haul flights. The risk increased with exposure to more flights within a short time frame and with increasing duration of flights. The incidence was highest in the first 2 wk after travel and gradually decreased to baseline after 8 wk. The risk was particularly high in employees under age 30 y, women who used oral contraceptives, and individuals who were particularly short, tall, or overweight. Conclusions The risk of symptomatic venous thrombosis after air travel is moderately increased on average, and rises with increasing exposure and in high-risk groups. PMID:17896862

The absolute risk of venous thrombosis after air travel: a cohort study of 8,755 employees of international organisations.

PubMed

Kuipers, Saskia; Cannegieter, Suzanne C; Middeldorp, Saskia; Robyn, Luc; Büller, Harry R; Rosendaal, Frits R

2007-09-01

The risk of venous thrombosis is approximately 2- to 4-fold increased after air travel, but the absolute risk is unknown. The objective of this study was to assess the absolute risk of venous thrombosis after air travel. We conducted a cohort study among employees of large international companies and organisations, who were followed between 1 January 2000 and 31 December 2005. The occurrence of symptomatic venous thrombosis was linked to exposure to air travel, as assessed by travel records provided by the companies and organisations. A long-haul flight was defined as a flight of at least 4 h and participants were considered exposed for a postflight period of 8 wk. A total of 8,755 employees were followed during a total follow-up time of 38,910 person-years (PY). The total time employees were exposed to a long-haul flight was 6,872 PY. In the follow-up period, 53 thromboses occurred, 22 of which within 8 wk of a long-haul flight, yielding an incidence rate of 3.2/1,000 PY, as compared to 1.0/1,000 PY in individuals not exposed to air travel (incidence rate ratio 3.2, 95% confidence interval 1.8-5.6). This rate was equivalent to a risk of one event per 4,656 long-haul flights. The risk increased with exposure to more flights within a short time frame and with increasing duration of flights. The incidence was highest in the first 2 wk after travel and gradually decreased to baseline after 8 wk. The risk was particularly high in employees under age 30 y, women who used oral contraceptives, and individuals who were particularly short, tall, or overweight. The risk of symptomatic venous thrombosis after air travel is moderately increased on average, and rises with increasing exposure and in high-risk groups.

Effect of dextran-70 on outcome in severe sepsis; a propensity-score matching study.

PubMed

Bentzer, Peter; Broman, Marcus; Kander, Thomas

2017-07-06

Albumin may be beneficial in patients with septic shock but availability is limited and cost is high. The objective of the present study was to investigate if the use of dextran-70 in addition to albumin and crystalloids influences organ failure or mortality in patients with severe sepsis or septic shock. Patients with severe sepsis or septic shock (n = 778) admitted to a university hospital intensive care unit (ICU) between 2007 and 2015 that received dextran-70 during resuscitation were propensity score matched to controls at a 1 to 1 ratio. Outcomes were highest acute kidney injury network (AKIN) score the first 10 days in the ICU, use of renal replacement therapy, days alive and free of organ support the first 28 days after admission to ICU, mortality and events of severe bleeding. Outcomes were assessed using paired hypothesis testing. Propensity score matching resulted in two groups of patients with 245 patients in each group. The dextran group received a median volume of 1483 ml (interquartile range, 1000-2000 ml) of dextran-70 during the ICU stay. Highest AKIN score did not differ between the control- and dextran groups (1 (0-3) versus 2 (0-3), p = 0.06). Incidence of renal replacement therapy in the control- and dextran groups was similar (19% versus 22%, p = 0.42, absolute risk reduction -2.9% [95% CI: -9.9 to 4.2]). Days alive and free of renal replacement, vasopressors and mechanical ventilation did not differ between the control- and dextran groups. The 180-day mortality was 50.2% in the control group and 41.6% in the dextran group (p = 0.046, absolute risk reduction 8.6% [-0.2 to 17.4]). Fraction of patients experiencing a severe bleeding in the first 10 days in the ICU did not differ between the control and dextran groups (14% versus 18%, p = 0.21). There is a paucity of high quality data regarding effects of dextran solutions on outcome in sepsis. In the present study, propensity score matching was used in attempt to reduce bias. No evidence to support a detrimental effect of dextran-70 on mortality or on organ failures in patients with severe sepsis or septic shock could be detected.

Evidence for Absolute Moral Opposition to Genetically Modified Food in the United States.

PubMed

Scott, Sydney E; Inbar, Yoel; Rozin, Paul

2016-05-01

Public opposition to genetic modification (GM) technology in the food domain is widespread (Frewer et al., 2013). In a survey of U.S. residents representative of the population on gender, age, and income, 64% opposed GM, and 71% of GM opponents (45% of the entire sample) were "absolutely" opposed-that is, they agreed that GM should be prohibited no matter the risks and benefits. "Absolutist" opponents were more disgust sensitive in general and more disgusted by the consumption of genetically modified food than were non-absolutist opponents or supporters. Furthermore, disgust predicted support for legal restrictions on genetically modified foods, even after controlling for explicit risk-benefit assessments. This research suggests that many opponents are evidence insensitive and will not be influenced by arguments about risks and benefits. © The Author(s) 2016.

Physical activity level and physical functionality in nonagenarians compared to individuals aged 60-74 years.

PubMed

Frisard, Madlyn I; Fabre, Jennifer M; Russell, Ryan D; King, Christina M; DeLany, James P; Wood, Robert H; Ravussin, Eric

2007-07-01

Functional dependence and the risks of disability increase with age. The loss of independence is thought to be partially due to a decrease in physical activity. However, in populations, accurate measurement of physical activity is challenging and may not provide information on functional impairment. This study therefore assessed physical functionality and physical activity level in a group of nonagenarians (11 men/11 women; 93+/-1 years, 66.6+/-2.4 kg, body mass index [BMI]=24+/-1 kg/m2) and a group of participants aged 60-74 years (17 men/15 women; 70+/-1 years, 83.3+/-3.0 kg, BMI=29+/-1 kg/m2) from the Louisiana Healthy Aging Study. Physical activity level was calculated from total energy expenditure (TEE) and resting metabolic rate (RMR). Physical functionality was assessed using the Reduced Continuous Scale Physical Functional Performance Test (CS-PFP10). Nonagenarians had lower absolute (p<.001) and adjusted (p<.007) TEE compared to participants aged 60-74 years which was attributed to a reduction in both RMR and physical activity level. Nonagenarians also had reduced functional performance (p<.001) which was correlated with activity level (r=0.68, p<.001). When compared to individuals aged 60-74 years, 73% of the reduction in TEE in nonagenarians can be attributed to a reduction in physical activity level, the remaining being accounted for by a reduction in RMR. The reduced physical activity in nonagenarians is associated with less physical functionality. This study provides the first objective comparison of physical functionality and actual levels of physical activity in older individuals.

Organocatalytic asymmetric anti-selective Michael reactions of aldehydes and the sequential reduction/lactonization/Pauson-Khand reaction for the enantioselective synthesis of highly functionalized hydropentalenes.

PubMed

Hong, Bor-Cherng; Dange, Nitin S; Yen, Po-Jen; Lee, Gene-Hsiang; Liao, Ju-Hsiou

2012-10-19

A new method has been developed for the enantioselective synthesis of highly functionalized hydropentalenes bearing up to four stereogenic centers with high stereoselectivity (up to 99% ee). This process combines an enantioselective organocatalytic anti-selective Michael addition with a highly efficient one-pot reduction/lactonization/Pauson-Khand reaction sequence. The structures and absolute configurations of the products were confirmed by X-ray analysis.

What does the MADRS mean? Equipercentile linking with the CGI using a company database of mirtazapine studies.

PubMed

Leucht, Stefan; Fennema, Hein; Engel, Rolf R; Kaspers-Janssen, Marion; Lepping, Peter; Szegedi, Armin

2017-03-01

Little is known about the clinical relevance of the Montgomery Asberg Depression Rating Scale (MADRS) total scores. It is unclear how total scores translate into clinical severity, or how commonly used measures for response (reduction from baseline of ≥50% in the total score) translate into clinical relevance. Moreover, MADRS based definitions of remission vary. We therefore compared: a/ the MADRS total score with the Clinical Global Impression - Severity Score (CGI-S) b/ the percentage and absolute change in the MADRS total scores with Clinical Global Impression - Improvement (CGI-I); c/ the absolute and percentage change in the MADRS total scores with CGI-S absolute change. The method used was equipercentile linking of MADRS and CGI ratings from 22 drug trials in patients with Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) (n=3288). Our results confirm the validity of the commonly used measures for response in MDD trials: a CGI-I score of 2 ('much improved') corresponded to a percentage MADRS reduction from baseline of 48-57%, and a CGI-I score of 1 ('very much improved') to a reduction of 80-84%. If a state of almost complete absence of symptoms were required for a definition of remission, a MADRS total score would be <8, because such scores corresponded to a CGI-S score of 2 ('borderline mentally ill'). Although our analysis is based on a large number of patients, the original trials were not specifically designed to examine our research question. The results might contribute to a better understanding and improved interpretation of clinical trial results in MDD. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Location matters: trends in inequalities in child mortality in Indonesia. Evidence from repeated cross-sectional surveys.

PubMed

Hodge, Andrew; Firth, Sonja; Marthias, Tiara; Jimenez-Soto, Eliana

2014-01-01

Considerable improvements in life expectancy and other human development indicators in Indonesia are thought to mask considerable disparities between populations in the country. We examine the existence and extent of these disparities by measuring trends and inequalities in the under-five mortality rate and neonatal mortality rate across wealth, education and geography. Using data from seven waves of the Indonesian Demographic and Health Surveys, direct estimates of under-five and neonatal mortality rates were generated for 1980-2011. Absolute and relative inequalities were measured by rate differences and ratios, and where possible, slope and relative indices of inequality. Disparities were assessed by levels of rural/urban location, island groups, maternal education and household wealth. Declines in national rates of under-five and neonatal mortality have accorded with reductions of absolute inequalities in clusters stratified by wealth, maternal education and rural/urban location. Across these groups, relative inequalities have generally stabilised, with possible increases with respect to mortality across wealth subpopulations. Both relative and absolute inequalities in rates of under-five and neonatal mortality stratified by island divisions have widened. Indonesia has made considerable gains in reducing under-five and neonatal mortality at a national level, with the largest reductions happening before the Asian financial crisis (1997-98) and decentralisation (2000). Hasty implementation of decentralisation reforms may have contributed to a slowdown in mortality rate reduction thereafter. Widening inequities between the most developed provinces of Java-Bali and those of other island groupings should be of particular concern for a country embarking on an ambitious plan for universal health coverage by 2019. A focus on addressing the key supply side barriers to accessing health care and on the social determinants of health in remote and disadvantaged regions will be essential for this plan to be realised.

Might extended education decrease inequalities in health?-a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Ljungdahl, Sofia; Bremberg, Sven G

2015-08-01

Health is substantially worse in less educated people, and extended education might potentially improve their health. A prerequisite for a beneficial health effect of education is that the effect is absolute. An absolute effect of education means that the health effect comes about independently of any effect on other persons. A relative effect, on the other hand, only contributes to individual competitiveness in relation to others. Studies of natural experiments of extended compulsory education, and other educational-policy changes, provide an option for the analysis of absolute effects of education. Published studies, however, present conflicting results. A meta-analysis was performed of European studies where the health effects of extended compulsory or secondary level education on low-educated individuals were investigated. Twenty-two relevant publications were identified. The meta-analysis indicated statistically significant favourable effects of educational reforms on rates of mortality, self-reported poor health and obesity. The effects were, however, small, 1-4%. An educational reform that typically added one educational year in the least educated group was associated with a mean 2.1% reduction in mortality in men before age 40. This effect might be compared with the total educational gradients of mortality rates in Swedish men at ages 30-64. One extra year of education after compulsory education corresponds to a 41% reduction in mortality, which is 20 times more than the absolute effect of education found in this meta-analysis. Thus, it unlikely that extended compulsory education will substantially improve the health of the least educated individuals. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association. All rights reserved.

Moving closer to understanding the risks of living kidney donation.

PubMed

Steiner, Robert W

2016-01-01

Recent studies from the United States and Norway have suggested an unexpected 8- to 11-fold relative risk of ESRD after kidney donation, but a low long-term absolute risk. Abundant renal epidemiologic data predict that these studies have underestimated long-term risk. The 1% lifetime post-donation risk in the US study requires medical screening to predict ESRD in 96 of 100 candidates. This is particularly unlikely in the 30-35% of candidates under age 35, half of whose lifetime ESRD will occur after age 64. Many experts have attributed the increased relative risks in these studies to loss of GFR at donation, which ultimately means that high-normal pre-donation GFRs will reduce absolute post-donation risks. The 8- to 11-fold relative risks predict implausible risks of uninephrectomy in the general population, but lower estimates still result in very high risks for black donors. Young vs. older age, low vs. high-normal pre-donation GFRs, black race, and an increased relative risk of donation all predict highly variable individual risks, not a single "low" or "1%" risk as these studies suggest. A uniform, ethically defensible donor selection protocol would accept older donors with many minor medical abnormalities but protect from donation many currently acceptable younger, black, and/or low GFR candidates. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

SONOlysis in prevention of Brain InfaRctions During Internal carotid Endarterectomy (SONOBIRDIE) trial - study protocol for a randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Hrbáč, Tomáš; Netuka, David; Beneš, Vladimír; Nosáľ, Vladimír; Kešnerová, Petra; Tomek, Aleš; Fadrná, Táňa; Beneš, Vladimír; Fiedler, Jiří; Přibáň, Vladimír; Brozman, Miroslav; Langová, Kateřina; Herzig, Roman; Školoudík, David

2017-01-17

Carotid endarterectomy (CEA) is a beneficial procedure for selected patients with an internal carotid artery (ICA) stenosis. Surgical risk of CEA varies from between 2 and 15%. The aim of the study is to demonstrate the safety and effectiveness of sonolysis (continual transcranial Doppler monitoring, TCD) using a 2-MHz diagnostic probe with maximal diagnostic energy on the reduction of the incidence of stroke, transient ischemic attack (TIA) and brain infarction detected using magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) by the activation of the endogenous fibrinolytic system during CEA. Design: a multicenter, randomized, double-blind, sham-controlled trial. international, multicenter trial for patients with at least 70% symptomatic or asymptomatic ICA stenosis undergoing CEA. patients with symptomatic or asymptomatic ICA stenosis of at least 70% are candidates for CEA; a sufficient temporal bone window for TCD; aged 40-85 years, functionally independent; provision of signed informed consent. Randomization: consecutive patients will be assigned to the sonolysis or control (sham procedure) group by computer-generated 1:1 randomization. Prestudy calculations showed that a minimum of 704 patients in each group is needed to reach a significant difference with an alpha value of 0.05 (two-tailed) and a beta value of 0.8 assuming that 10% would be lost to follow-up or refuse to participate in the study (estimated 39 endpoints). the primary endpoint is the incidence of stroke or TIA during 30 days after CEA and the incidence of new ischemic lesions on brain MRI performed 24 h after CEA in the sonolysis and control groups. Secondary endpoints are occurrence of death, any stroke, or myocardial infarction within 30 days, changes in cognitive functions 1 year post procedure related to pretreatment scores, and number of new lesions and occurrence of new lesions ≥0.5 mL on post-procedural brain MRI. descriptive statistics and linear/logistic multiple regression models will be performed. Clinical relevance will be measured as relative risk reduction, absolute risk reduction and the number needed to treat. Reduction of the periprocedural complications of CEA using sonolysis as a widely available and cheap method may significantly increase the safety of CEA and extend the indication criteria for CEA. ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02398734 . Registered on 20 March 2015.

Selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors for fibromyalgia syndrome

PubMed Central

Walitt, Brian; Urrútia, Gerard; Nishishinya, María Betina; Cantrell, Sarah E; Häuser, Winfried

2016-01-01

Background Fibromyalgia is a clinically well-defined chronic condition with a biopsychosocial aetiology. Fibromyalgia is characterized by chronic widespread musculoskeletal pain, sleep problems, cognitive dysfunction, and fatigue. Patients often report high disability levels and poor quality of life. Since there is no specific treatment that alters the pathogenesis of fibromyalgia, drug therapy focuses on pain reduction and improvement of other aversive symptoms. Objectives The objective was to assess the benefits and harms of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) in the treatment of fibromyalgia. Search methods We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL; 2014, Issue 5), MEDLINE (1966 to June 2014), EMBASE (1946 to June 2014), and the reference lists of reviewed articles. Selection criteria We selected all randomized, double-blind trials of SSRIs used for the treatment of fibromyalgia symptoms in adult participants. We considered the following SSRIs in this review: citalopram, fluoxetine, escitalopram, fluvoxamine, paroxetine, and sertraline. Data collection and analysis Three authors extracted the data of all included studies and assessed the risks of bias of the studies. We resolved discrepancies by discussion. Main results The quality of evidence was very low for each outcome. We downgraded the quality of evidence to very low due to concerns about risk of bias and studies with few participants. We included seven placebo-controlled studies, two with citalopram, three with fluoxetine and two with paroxetine, with a median study duration of eight weeks (4 to 16 weeks) and 383 participants, who were pooled together. All studies had one or more sources of potential major bias. There was a small (10%) difference in patients who reported a 30% pain reduction between SSRIs (56/172 (32.6%)) and placebo (39/171 (22.8%)) risk difference (RD) 0.10, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.01 to 0.20; number needed to treat for an additional beneficial outcome (NNTB) 10, 95% CI 5 to 100; and in global improvement (proportion of patients who reported to be much or very much improved: 50/168 (29.8%) of patients with SSRIs and 26/162 (16.0%) of patients with placebo) RD 0.14, 95% CI 0.06 to 0.23; NNTB 7, 95% CI 4 to 17. SSRIs did not statistically, or clinically, significantly reduce fatigue: standard mean difference (SMD) −0.26, 95% CI −0.55 to 0.03; 7.0% absolute improvement on a 0 to 10 scale, 95% CI 14.6% relative improvement to 0.8% relative deterioration; nor sleep problems: SMD 0.03, 95 % CI −0.26 to 0.31; 0.8 % absolute deterioration on a 0 to 100 scale, 95% CI 8.3% relative deterioration to 6.9% relative improvement. SSRIs were superior to placebo in the reduction of depression: SMD −0.39, 95% CI −0.65 to −0.14; 7.6% absolute improvement on a 0 to 10 scale, 95% CI 2.7% to 13.8% relative improvement; NNTB 13, 95% CI 7 to 37. The dropout rate due to adverse events was not higher with SSRI use than with placebo use (23/146 (15.8%) of patients with SSRIs and 14/138 (10.1%) of patients with placebo) RD 0.04, 95% CI −0.06 to 0.14. There was no statistically or clinically significant difference in serious adverse events with SSRI use and placebo use (3/84 (3.6%) in patients with SSRIs and 4/84 (4.8%) and patients with placebo) RD −0.01, 95% CI −0.07 to 0.05. Authors’ conclusions There is no unbiased evidence that SSRIs are superior to placebo in treating the key symptoms of fibromyalgia, namely pain, fatigue and sleep problems. SSRIs might be considered for treating depression in people with fibromyalgia. The black box warning for increased suicidal tendency in young adults aged 18 to 24, with major depressive disorder, who have taken SSRIs, should be considered when appropriate. PMID:26046493

Estimating the Risks of Breast Cancer Radiotherapy: Evidence From Modern Radiation Doses to the Lungs and Heart and From Previous Randomized Trials

PubMed Central

Correa, Candace; Duane, Frances K.; Aznar, Marianne C.; Anderson, Stewart J.; Bergh, Jonas; Dodwell, David; Ewertz, Marianne; Gray, Richard; Jagsi, Reshma; Pierce, Lori; Pritchard, Kathleen I.; Swain, Sandra; Wang, Zhe; Wang, Yaochen; Whelan, Tim; Peto, Richard; McGale, Paul

2017-01-01

Purpose Radiotherapy reduces the absolute risk of breast cancer mortality by a few percentage points in suitable women but can cause a second cancer or heart disease decades later. We estimated the absolute long-term risks of modern breast cancer radiotherapy. Methods First, a systematic literature review was performed of lung and heart doses in breast cancer regimens published during 2010 to 2015. Second, individual patient data meta-analyses of 40,781 women randomly assigned to breast cancer radiotherapy versus no radiotherapy in 75 trials yielded rate ratios (RRs) for second primary cancers and cause-specific mortality and excess RRs (ERRs) per Gy for incident lung cancer and cardiac mortality. Smoking status was unavailable. Third, the lung or heart ERRs per Gy in the trials and the 2010 to 2015 doses were combined and applied to current smoker and nonsmoker lung cancer and cardiac mortality rates in population-based data. Results Average doses from 647 regimens published during 2010 to 2015 were 5.7 Gy for whole lung and 4.4 Gy for whole heart. The median year of irradiation was 2010 (interquartile range [IQR], 2008 to 2011). Meta-analyses yielded lung cancer incidence ≥ 10 years after radiotherapy RR of 2.10 (95% CI, 1.48 to 2.98; P < .001) on the basis of 134 cancers, indicating 0.11 (95% CI, 0.05 to 0.20) ERR per Gy whole-lung dose. For cardiac mortality, RR was 1.30 (95% CI, 1.15 to 1.46; P < .001) on the basis of 1,253 cardiac deaths. Detailed analyses indicated 0.04 (95% CI, 0.02 to 0.06) ERR per Gy whole-heart dose. Estimated absolute risks from modern radiotherapy were as follows: lung cancer, approximately 4% for long-term continuing smokers and 0.3% for nonsmokers; and cardiac mortality, approximately 1% for smokers and 0.3% for nonsmokers. Conclusion For long-term smokers, the absolute risks of modern radiotherapy may outweigh the benefits, yet for most nonsmokers (and ex-smokers), the benefits of radiotherapy far outweigh the risks. Hence, smoking can determine the net effect of radiotherapy on mortality, but smoking cessation substantially reduces radiotherapy risk. PMID:28319436

Estimating the Risks of Breast Cancer Radiotherapy: Evidence From Modern Radiation Doses to the Lungs and Heart and From Previous Randomized Trials.

PubMed

Taylor, Carolyn; Correa, Candace; Duane, Frances K; Aznar, Marianne C; Anderson, Stewart J; Bergh, Jonas; Dodwell, David; Ewertz, Marianne; Gray, Richard; Jagsi, Reshma; Pierce, Lori; Pritchard, Kathleen I; Swain, Sandra; Wang, Zhe; Wang, Yaochen; Whelan, Tim; Peto, Richard; McGale, Paul

2017-05-20

Purpose Radiotherapy reduces the absolute risk of breast cancer mortality by a few percentage points in suitable women but can cause a second cancer or heart disease decades later. We estimated the absolute long-term risks of modern breast cancer radiotherapy. Methods First, a systematic literature review was performed of lung and heart doses in breast cancer regimens published during 2010 to 2015. Second, individual patient data meta-analyses of 40,781 women randomly assigned to breast cancer radiotherapy versus no radiotherapy in 75 trials yielded rate ratios (RRs) for second primary cancers and cause-specific mortality and excess RRs (ERRs) per Gy for incident lung cancer and cardiac mortality. Smoking status was unavailable. Third, the lung or heart ERRs per Gy in the trials and the 2010 to 2015 doses were combined and applied to current smoker and nonsmoker lung cancer and cardiac mortality rates in population-based data. Results Average doses from 647 regimens published during 2010 to 2015 were 5.7 Gy for whole lung and 4.4 Gy for whole heart. The median year of irradiation was 2010 (interquartile range [IQR], 2008 to 2011). Meta-analyses yielded lung cancer incidence ≥ 10 years after radiotherapy RR of 2.10 (95% CI, 1.48 to 2.98; P < .001) on the basis of 134 cancers, indicating 0.11 (95% CI, 0.05 to 0.20) ERR per Gy whole-lung dose. For cardiac mortality, RR was 1.30 (95% CI, 1.15 to 1.46; P < .001) on the basis of 1,253 cardiac deaths. Detailed analyses indicated 0.04 (95% CI, 0.02 to 0.06) ERR per Gy whole-heart dose. Estimated absolute risks from modern radiotherapy were as follows: lung cancer, approximately 4% for long-term continuing smokers and 0.3% for nonsmokers; and cardiac mortality, approximately 1% for smokers and 0.3% for nonsmokers. Conclusion For long-term smokers, the absolute risks of modern radiotherapy may outweigh the benefits, yet for most nonsmokers (and ex-smokers), the benefits of radiotherapy far outweigh the risks. Hence, smoking can determine the net effect of radiotherapy on mortality, but smoking cessation substantially reduces radiotherapy risk.

Rectal indomethacin versus placebo to reduce the incidence of pancreatitis after endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography: results of a controlled clinical trial.

PubMed

Andrade-Dávila, Víctor Fernando; Chávez-Tostado, Mariana; Dávalos-Cobián, Carlos; García-Correa, Jesús; Montaño-Loza, Alejandro; Fuentes-Orozco, Clotilde; Macías-Amezcua, Michel Dassaejv; García-Rentería, Jesús; Rendón-Félix, Jorge; Cortés-Lares, José Antonio; Ambriz-González, Gabriela; Cortés-Flores, Ana Olivia; Alvarez-Villaseñor, Andrea del Socorro; González-Ojeda, Alejandro

2015-07-21

Acute pancreatitis is the most common major complication after endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP). Many drugs have been evaluated for prophylaxis, including nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs), which are potent inhibitors of phospholipase A2 and play a role in the pathogenesis of acute pancreatitis. Rectal NSAIDs have been shown in prospective studies to decrease the incidence of this complication, but the indication is not generalized in clinical practice. The aim of this study was to evaluate the efficacy of rectal administration of indomethacin in reducing the incidence of post-ERCP pancreatitis in high-risk patients. This was a controlled clinical trial where patients with an elevated risk of developing post-ERCP pancreatitis were assigned to receive 100 mg of rectal indomethacin or a 2.6 g suppository of glycerin immediately after ERCP, without placement of a pancreatic stent. The patients were determined to be at high risk based on validated patient- and procedure-related risk factors. Post-ERCP pancreatitis was defined as the presence of new upper abdominal pain, hyperamylasemia/hyperlipasemia (at least three times the upper limit) 2 hours after the procedure and hospitalization at least 48 hours because of the complication. Pancreatitis severity was defined according to Cotton's criteria. One hundred sixty-six patients were included; 82 in the study group and 84 in the placebo group. Patients had at least one major and/or two minor risk factors for developing post-ERCP pancreatitis. The incidence of the complication was 4.87% (4/82) in the study group and 20.23% (17/84) in the placebo group; this difference was significant (P = 0.01). According to Cotton's criteria, 17 patients (80.9%) developed mild pancreatitis and 4 (19.1%) had moderate pancreatitis; 3 of these 4 patients belonged to the placebo group (P = 0.60). Based on these results, an absolute risk reduction of 0.15 (15%), a relative risk reduction of 0.75 (75%) and a number needed to treat of 6.5 patients were calculated to prevent an episode of post-ERCP pancreatitis. There was no mortality. Rectal indomethacin reduced the incidence of post-ERCP pancreatitis among patients at high risk of developing this complication. National Clinical Trials NCT02110810. Date April 7, 2014.

Validation of a predictive model that identifies patients at high risk of developing febrile neutropaenia following chemotherapy for breast cancer.

PubMed

Jenkins, P; Scaife, J; Freeman, S

2012-07-01

We have previously developed a predictive model that identifies patients at increased risk of febrile neutropaenia (FN) following chemotherapy, based on pretreatment haematological indices. This study was designed to validate our earlier findings in a separate cohort of patients undergoing more myelosuppressive chemotherapy supported by growth factors. We conducted a retrospective analysis of 263 patients who had been treated with adjuvant docetaxel, adriamycin and cyclophosphamide (TAC) chemotherapy for breast cancer. All patients received prophylactic pegfilgrastim and the majority also received prophylactic antibiotics. Thirty-one patients (12%) developed FN. Using our previous model, patients in the highest risk group (pretreatment absolute neutrophil count≤3.1 10(9)/l and absolute lymphocyte count≤1.5 10(9)/l) comprised 8% of the total population and had a 33% risk of developing FN. Compared with the rest of the cohort, this group had a 3.4-fold increased risk of developing FN (P=0.001) and a 5.2-fold increased risk of cycle 1 FN (P<0.001). A simple model based on pretreatment differential white blood cell count can be applied to pegfilgrastim-supported patients to identify those who are at higher risk of FN.

Robust Derivation of Risk Reduction Strategies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Richardson, Julian; Port, Daniel; Feather, Martin

2007-01-01

Effective risk reduction strategies can be derived mechanically given sufficient characterization of the risks present in the system and the effectiveness of available risk reduction techniques. In this paper, we address an important question: can we reliably expect mechanically derived risk reduction strategies to be better than fixed or hand-selected risk reduction strategies, given that the quantitative assessment of risks and risk reduction techniques upon which mechanical derivation is based is difficult and likely to be inaccurate? We consider this question relative to two methods for deriving effective risk reduction strategies: the strategic method defined by Kazman, Port et al [Port et al, 2005], and the Defect Detection and Prevention (DDP) tool [Feather & Cornford, 2003]. We performed a number of sensitivity experiments to evaluate how inaccurate knowledge of risk and risk reduction techniques affect the performance of the strategies computed by the Strategic Method compared to a variety of alternative strategies. The experimental results indicate that strategies computed by the Strategic Method were significantly more effective than the alternative risk reduction strategies, even when knowledge of risk and risk reduction techniques was very inaccurate. The robustness of the Strategic Method suggests that its use should be considered in a wide range of projects.

Post-neonatal mortality in Norway 1969-95: a cause-specific analysis.

PubMed

Arntzen, Annett; Samuelsen, Sven Ove; Daltveit, Anne Kjersti; Stoltenberg, Camilla

2006-08-01

We recently reported increased social inequality for post-neonatal death. The aim of the present study was to investigate the association between socioeconomic status and cause-specific post-neonatal death. All 1,483,857 live births recorded in the Medical Birth Registry of Norway from 1969-95 with information on parents' education were included. During the post-neonatal period (from 28 to 364 days of life) 4,464 infants died. Differences between education groups were estimated as risk differences, relative risks, population attributable fractions, and relative index of inequality. The major causes of death were congenital conditions, sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS), and infections. Post-neonatal mortality declined from 3.2/1,000 in the 1970s to 1.9/1,000 in the 1990s, mainly due to reduced mortality from congenital conditions. The absolute risk for SIDS increased by 0.51/1,000 in the same period among infants whose mothers had low education, while it decreased by 0.56/1,000 for those whose mothers had high education. The relative risk for SIDS among infants whose mothers had low education increased from 1.02 in the 1970s to 2.39 in the 1980s and 5.63 in the 1990s. Among infants whose fathers were not recorded in the Birth Registry, the absolute risk of SIDS increased by 0.79/1,000 from the 1970s to the 1990s. Increased social inequality for post-neonatal death was primarily due to increases in the absolute and relative risks of SIDS among infants whose mothers have low education. Social inequality widened during the study period for SIDS and deaths caused by infections.

Cardiovascular disease prevention with a multidrug regimen in the developing world: a cost-effectiveness analysis

PubMed Central

Gaziano, Thomas A; Opie, Lionel H; Weinstein, Milton C

2008-01-01

Summary Background Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death, with 80% of cases occurring in developing countries. We therefore aimed to establish whether use of evidence-based multidrug regimens for patients at high risk for cardiovascular disease would be cost-effective in low-income and middle-income countries. Methods We used a Markov model to do a cost-effectiveness analysis with two combination regimens. For primary prevention, we used aspirin, a calcium-channel blocker, an angiotensin-converting-enzyme inhibitor, and a statin, and assessed them in four groups with different thresholds of absolute risks for cardiovascular disease. For secondary prevention, we assessed the same combination of drugs in one group, but substituted a β blocker for the calcium-channel blocker. To compare strategies, we report incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER), in US$ per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). Findings We recorded that preventive strategies could result in a 2-year gain in life expectancy. Across six developing World Bank regions, primary prevention yielded ICERs of US$746–890/QALY gained for patients with a 10-year absolute risk of cardiovascular disease greater than 25%, and $1039–1221/QALY gained for those with an absolute risk greater than 5%. ICERs for secondary prevention ranged from $306/QALY to $388/QALY gained. Interpretation Regimens of aspirin, two blood-pressure drugs, and a statin could halve the risk of death from cardiovascular disease in high-risk patients. This approach is cost-effective according to WHO recommendations, and is robust across several estimates of drug efficacy and of treatment cost. Developing countries should encourage the use of these inexpensive drugs that are currently available for both primary and secondary prevention. PMID:16920473

Effect of a single prophylactic preoperative oral antibiotic dose on surgical site infection following complex dermatological procedures on the nose and ear: a prospective, randomised, controlled, double-blinded trial.

PubMed

Rosengren, Helena; Heal, Clare F; Buttner, Petra G

2018-04-19

There is limited published research studying the effect of antibiotic prophylaxis on surgical site infection (SSI) in dermatological surgery, and there is no consensus for its use in higher-risk cases. The objective of this study was to determine the effectiveness of a single oral preoperative 2 g dose of cephalexin in preventing SSI following flap and graft dermatological closures on the nose and ear. Prospective double-blinded, randomised, placebo-controlled trial testing for difference in infection rates. Primary care skin cancer clinics in North Queensland, Australia, were randomised to 2 g oral cephalexin or placebo 40-60 min prior to skin incision. 154 consecutive eligible patients booked for flap or graft closure following skin cancer excision on the ear and nose. 2 g dose of cephalexin administered 40-60 min prior to surgery. Overall 8/69 (11.6%) controls and 1/73 (1.4%) in the intervention group developed SSI (p=0.015; absolute SSI reduction 10.2%; number needed to treat (NNT) for benefit 9.8, 95% CI 5.5 to 45.5). In males, 7/44 controls and 0/33 in the intervention group developed SSI (p=0.018; absolute SSI reduction 15.9%; NNT for benefit 6.3, 95% CI 3.8 to 19.2). SSI was much lower in female controls (1/25) and antibiotic prophylaxis did not further reduce this (p=1.0). There was no difference between the study groups in adverse symptoms attributable to high-dose antibiotic administration (p=0.871). A single oral 2 g dose of cephalexin given before complex skin closure on the nose and ear reduced SSI. ANZCTR 365115; Post-results. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

77 FR 42476 - Fisheries of the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and South Atlantic; Reef Fish Fishery of the Gulf of...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-07-19

... is overfished. However, the SSC rejected as unreliable the absolute values that resulted in the... establish a stock ACL of zero, would result in the largest profit reductions to both the commercial sector...

A Comparison of Meditation with Other Relaxation Techniques.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fling, Sheila

This paper critiques a negative 1984 review, "Meditation and Somatic Arousal Reduction" (Holmes), on the absolute effectiveness of meditation in reducing somatic arousal and reviews research on the relative effectiveness of meditation compared to techniques such as biofeedback, hypnosis, progressive muscle relaxation, and autogenics in…

12 CFR 324.52 - Simple risk-weight approach (SRWA).

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... greater than or equal to −1 (that is, between zero and −1), then E equals the absolute value of RVC. If...) Zero percent risk weight equity exposures. An equity exposure to a sovereign, the Bank for..., an MDB, and any other entity whose credit exposures receive a zero percent risk weight under § 324.32...

Association Between Baseline LDL-C Level and Total and Cardiovascular Mortality After LDL-C Lowering: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

PubMed

Navarese, Eliano P; Robinson, Jennifer G; Kowalewski, Mariusz; Kolodziejczak, Michalina; Andreotti, Felicita; Bliden, Kevin; Tantry, Udaya; Kubica, Jacek; Raggi, Paolo; Gurbel, Paul A

2018-04-17

Effects on specific fatal and nonfatal end points appear to vary for low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C)-lowering drug trials. To evaluate whether baseline LDL-C level is associated with total and cardiovascular mortality risk reductions. Electronic databases (Cochrane, MEDLINE, EMBASE, TCTMD, ClinicalTrials.gov, major congress proceedings) were searched through February 2, 2018, to identify randomized clinical trials of statins, ezetimibe, and PCSK9-inhibiting monoclonal antibodies. Two investigators abstracted data and appraised risks of bias. Intervention groups were categorized as "more intensive" (more potent pharmacologic intervention) or "less intensive" (less potent, placebo, or control group). The coprimary end points were total mortality and cardiovascular mortality. Random-effects meta-regression and meta-analyses evaluated associations between baseline LDL-C level and reductions in mortality end points and secondary end points including major adverse cardiac events (MACE). In 34 trials, 136 299 patients received more intensive and 133 989 received less intensive LDL-C lowering. All-cause mortality was lower for more vs less intensive therapy (7.08% vs 7.70%; rate ratio [RR], 0.92 [95% CI, 0.88 to 0.96]), but varied by baseline LDL-C level. Meta-regression showed more intensive LDL-C lowering was associated with greater reductions in all-cause mortality with higher baseline LDL-C levels (change in RRs per 40-mg/dL increase in baseline LDL-C, 0.91 [95% CI, 0.86 to 0.96]; P = .001; absolute risk difference [ARD], -1.05 incident cases per 1000 person-years [95% CI, -1.59 to -0.51]), but only when baseline LDL-C levels were 100 mg/dL or greater (P < .001 for interaction) in a meta-analysis. Cardiovascular mortality was lower for more vs less intensive therapy (3.48% vs 4.07%; RR, 0.84 [95% CI, 0.79 to 0.89]) but varied by baseline LDL-C level. Meta-regression showed more intensive LDL-C lowering was associated with a greater reduction in cardiovascular mortality with higher baseline LDL-C levels (change in RRs per 40-mg/dL increase in baseline LDL-C, 0.86 [95% CI, 0.80 to 0.94]; P < .001; ARD, -1.0 incident cases per 1000 person-years [95% CI, -1.51 to -0.45]), but only when baseline LDL-C levels were 100 mg/dL or greater (P < .001 for interaction) in a meta-analysis. Trials with baseline LDL-C levels of 160 mg/dL or greater had the greatest reduction in all-cause mortality (RR, 0.72 [95% CI, 0.62 to 0.84]; P < .001; 4.3 fewer deaths per 1000 person-years) in a meta-analysis. More intensive LDL-C lowering was also associated with progressively greater risk reductions with higher baseline LDL-C level for myocardial infarction, revascularization, and MACE. In these meta-analyses and meta-regressions, more intensive compared with less intensive LDL-C lowering was associated with a greater reduction in risk of total and cardiovascular mortality in trials of patients with higher baseline LDL-C levels. This association was not present when baseline LDL-C level was less than 100 mg/dL, suggesting that the greatest benefit from LDL-C-lowering therapy may occur for patients with higher baseline LDL-C levels.

Explanations for side effect aversion in preventive medical treatment decisions

PubMed Central

Waters, Erika A.; Weinstein, Neil D.; Colditz, Graham A.; Emmons, Karen

2008-01-01

Objective Many laypeople demonstrate excessive sensitivity to negative side effects of medical treatments, which may lead them to refuse beneficial therapies. This Internet-based experiment investigated three possible explanations for such “side effect aversion.” One was derived from mental accounting, one examined the mere presence of a side effect, and one focused on computational difficulties. Design Participants (N = 5,379) were presented with a hypothetical cancer preventive treatment situation that was or was not accompanied by one or two small side effects. The side effects were either beneficial or harmful. In all conditions the net absolute risk reduction associated with the treatment was 15%. Main Outcome Measures Participants indicated their willingness to accept treatment and their perceptions of the treatment’s effects on their overall cancer risk. Results Data were consistent only with the “mere presence” explanation of side effect aversion, the idea that side effects act as a strong negative cue that directly affects treatment appraisal. The number of negative side effects did not influence treatment willingness. Conclusion Side effect aversion is a challenge to informed decision making. Specific mechanisms that produce side effect aversion should be identified. PMID:19290712

Methodological Challenges in Research on Sexual Risk Behavior: I. Item Content, Scaling, and Data Analytical Options

PubMed Central

Schroder, Kerstin E. E.; Carey, Michael P.; Vanable, Peter A.

2008-01-01

Investigation of sexual behavior involves many challenges, including how to assess sexual behavior and how to analyze the resulting data. Sexual behavior can be assessed using absolute frequency measures (also known as “counts”) or with relative frequency measures (e.g., rating scales ranging from “never” to “always”). We discuss these two assessment approaches in the context of research on HIV risk behavior. We conclude that these two approaches yield non-redundant information and, more importantly, that only data yielding information about the absolute frequency of risk behavior have the potential to serve as valid indicators of HIV contraction risk. However, analyses of count data may be challenging due to non-normal distributions with many outliers. Therefore, we identify new and powerful data analytical solutions that have been developed recently to analyze count data, and discuss limitations of a commonly applied method (viz., ANCOVA using baseline scores as covariates). PMID:14534027

Performance of 2014 NICE defibrillator implantation guidelines in heart failure risk stratification.

PubMed

Cubbon, Richard M; Witte, Klaus K; Kearney, Lorraine C; Gierula, John; Byrom, Rowenna; Paton, Maria; Sengupta, Anshuman; Patel, Peysh A; Mn Walker, Andrew; Cairns, David A; Rajwani, Adil; Hall, Alistair S; Sapsford, Robert J; Kearney, Mark T

2016-05-15

Define the real-world performance of recently updated National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidelines (TA314) on implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) use in people with chronic heart failure. Multicentre prospective cohort study of 1026 patients with stable chronic heart failure, associated with left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) ≤45% recruited in cardiology outpatient departments of four UK hospitals. We assessed the capacity of TA314 to identify patients at increased risk of sudden cardiac death (SCD) or appropriate ICD shock. The overall risk of SCD or appropriate ICD shock was 2.1 events per 100 patient-years (95% CI 1.7 to 2.6). Patients meeting TA314 ICD criteria (31.1%) were 2.5-fold (95% CI 1.6 to 3.9) more likely to suffer SCD or appropriate ICD shock; they were also 1.5-fold (95% CI 1.1 to 2.2) more likely to die from non-cardiovascular causes and 1.6-fold (95% CI 1.1 to 2.3) more likely to die from progressive heart failure. Patients with diabetes not meeting TA314 criteria experienced comparable absolute risk of SCD or appropriate ICD shock to patients without diabetes who met TA314 criteria. Patients with ischaemic cardiomyopathy not meeting TA314 criteria experienced comparable absolute risk of SCD or appropriate ICD shock to patients with non-ischaemic cardiomyopathy who met TA314 criteria. TA314 can identify patients with reduced LVEF who are at increased relative risk of sudden death. Clinicians should also consider clinical context and the absolute risk of SCD when advising patients about the potential risks and benefits of ICD therapy. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Predicting 10-Year Risk of Fatal Cardiovascular Disease in Germany: An Update Based on the SCORE-Deutschland Risk Charts

PubMed Central

Rücker, Viktoria; Keil, Ulrich; Fitzgerald, Anthony P; Malzahn, Uwe; Prugger, Christof; Ertl, Georg; Heuschmann, Peter U; Neuhauser, Hannelore

2016-01-01

Estimation of absolute risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), preferably with population-specific risk charts, has become a cornerstone of CVD primary prevention. Regular recalibration of risk charts may be necessary due to decreasing CVD rates and CVD risk factor levels. The SCORE risk charts for fatal CVD risk assessment were first calibrated for Germany with 1998 risk factor level data and 1999 mortality statistics. We present an update of these risk charts based on the SCORE methodology including estimates of relative risks from SCORE, risk factor levels from the German Health Interview and Examination Survey for Adults 2008–11 (DEGS1) and official mortality statistics from 2012. Competing risks methods were applied and estimates were independently validated. Updated risk charts were calculated based on cholesterol, smoking, systolic blood pressure risk factor levels, sex and 5-year age-groups. The absolute 10-year risk estimates of fatal CVD were lower according to the updated risk charts compared to the first calibration for Germany. In a nationwide sample of 3062 adults aged 40–65 years free of major CVD from DEGS1, the mean 10-year risk of fatal CVD estimated by the updated charts was lower by 29% and the estimated proportion of high risk people (10-year risk > = 5%) by 50% compared to the older risk charts. This recalibration shows a need for regular updates of risk charts according to changes in mortality and risk factor levels in order to sustain the identification of people with a high CVD risk. PMID:27612145

Combined chemotherapy and radiotherapy (without surgery) compared with radiotherapy alone in localized carcinoma of the esophagus.

PubMed

Wong, R; Malthaner, R

2001-01-01

Esophageal carcinoma can be managed primarily with either a surgical or radiotherapeutic (non surgical) approach. Strategies to improve the outcome of either modality alone include the use of combined modalities. Combination chemotherapy radiotherapy is one approach that has been explored over the years with increasing application in clinical practice especially in North America. To evaluate the effectiveness of combined chemotherapy and radiotherapy versus radiotherapy alone in the outcome of patients with localized esophageal carcinoma. Outcomes of interest include overall survival, cause specific survival, local recurrence, dysphagia relief, quality of life, acute and chronic toxicities. The Cochrane strategy for identifying randomized trials was combined with MeSH headings including esophageal neoplasms, radiotherapy, chemotherapy combined modality, drug therapy combination. Medline, Cancerlit and Embase were searched using this strategy. In addition, the Cochrane library was also searched. References from relevant articles and personal files were included. Randomized controlled trials in patients with localized esophageal cancer, with one arm employing radiotherapy alone, and one arm employing combination radiotherapy chemotherapy were included. Studies comparing non chemotherapy agents such as pure radiotherapy sensitisers, immunostimulants, planned esophagectomy, were excluded. Data were extracted by two independent reviewers, and the trial quality was assessed using both the Jadad scoring and Detsky checklist. Sensitivity analysis was planned to explore sources of heterogeneity where heterogeneity existed. The factors hypothesized a priori included combination versus sequential treatment, quality of study, biological effective radiotherapy dose (i.e. Radiotherapy dose) cisplatin versus non cisplatin containing trials, and 5FU versus non 5FU containing trials. Odds Ratio (OR) and 95% confidence limits were used to assess the significance of the difference between the treatment arms. Absolute risk difference and number needed to treat (NNT) were used to express the magnitude of difference where appropriate. Thirteen randomized trials were included in the analysis. There were eight concomitant and five sequential radiotherapy and chemotherapy (RTCT) studies. The studies were analyzed separately due to observed heterogeneity across all the studies and biological considerations. Concomitant RTCT provided significant overall reduction in mortality at 1 and 2 years. The mortality in the control arms was 67% and 86% respectively. Combined RTCT provided an absolute reduction of mortality by 9% (95% CI 2-17%) and 8% (95% CI 1-17%) respectively. Expressed as NNT, this is 11 and 10 respectively. At longer follow up, the results were heterogeneous, cautioning against pooling of the data. There was a reduction in the overall local recurrence rate. The local recurrence rate for the control arms was in the order of 69%. Combined RTCT provided an absolute reduction of local recurrence rate of 5% (95% CI 4-26%) with a NNT of 7. There was significant increase of severe and life threatening toxicities with a NNH of 6, with this approach. With the sensitivity analysis, there was a suggestion that cisplatin based and 5FU based chemotherapy studies were reasonable regimens to employ when using this strategy. The results from the sequential RTCT studies were heterogeneous and could not be pooled. Factors hypothesized a priori did not identify any single source that could account for a significant component of the heterogeneity. Examining the results individually, there was no data to support clinical benefit. This approach was also accompanied by significant toxicities. When a non-operative approach is selected, then concomitant RTCT is superior to the RT alone. This approach is accompanied by significant toxicities. In patients who are in good general condition, and the risk benefit has been thoroughly discussed with the patient, concomitant RTCT should be considered for the management of esophageal cancer compared with radiotherapy alone.

Combined chemotherapy and radiotherapy (without surgery) compared with radiotherapy alone in localized carcinoma of the esophagus.

PubMed

Rebecca, W O; Richard, M A

2003-01-01

Esophageal carcinoma can be managed primarily with either a surgical or radiotherapeutic (non surgical) approach. Strategies to improve the outcome of either modality alone include the use of combined modalities. Combination chemotherapy radiotherapy is one approach that has been explored over the years with increasing application in clinical practice especially in North America. To evaluate the effectiveness of combined chemotherapy and radiotherapy versus radiotherapy alone in the outcome of patients with localized esophageal carcinoma. Outcomes of interest include overall survival, cause specific survival, local recurrence, dysphagia relief, quality of life, acute and chronic toxicities. The Cochrane strategy for identifying randomized trials was combined with MeSH headings including esophageal neoplasms, radiotherapy, chemotherapy combined modality, drug therapy combination. MEDLINE, CancerLIT and EMBASE were searched using this strategy. In addition, the Cochrane library was also searched. References from relevant articles and personal files were included. Randomized controlled trials in patients with localized esophageal cancer, with one arm employing radiotherapy alone, and one arm employing combination radiotherapy chemotherapy were included. Studies comparing non chemotherapy agents such as pure radiotherapy sensitisers, immunostimulants, planned esophagectomy, were excluded. Data were extracted by two independent reviewers, and the trial quality was assessed using both the Jadad scoring and Detsky checklist. Sensitivity analysis was planned to explore sources of heterogeneity where heterogeneity existed. The factors hypothesized a priori included combination versus sequential treatment, quality of study, biological effective radiotherapy dose (i.e. Radiotherapy dose) cisplatin versus non cisplatin containing trials, and 5FU versus non 5FU containing trials. Odds Ratio (OR) and 95% confidence limits were used to assess the significance of the difference between the treatment arms. Absolute risk difference and number needed to treat (NNT) were used to express the magnitude of difference where appropriate. Thirteen randomized trials were included in the analysis. There were eight concomitant and five sequential radiotherapy and chemotherapy (RTCT) studies. The studies were analyzed separately due to observed heterogeneity across all the studies and biological considerations. Concomitant RTCT provided significant overall reduction in mortality at 1 and 2 years. The mortality in the control arms was 62% and 83% respectively. Combined RTCT provided an absolute reduction of mortality by 7% (95% CI 1-15%) and 7% (95% CI 0-15%) respectively. Expressed as NNT, this is 12 and 12 respectively. At longer follow up, the results were heterogeneous, cautioning against pooling of the data. There was a reduction in the overall local recurrence rate. The local recurrence rate for the control arms was in the order of 68%. Combined RTCT provided an absolute reduction of local recurrence rate of 12% (95% CI 3-22%) with a NNT of 9. There was significant increase of severe and life threatening toxicities with a NNH of 6, with this approach. The sensitivity analysis did not identify any factor that interacted with the results, or subgroup in which the benefit appear to be limited to. The results from the sequential RTCT studies were heterogeneous and could not be pooled. Factors hypothesized a priori did not identify any single source that could account for a significant component of the heterogeneity. Examining the results individually, there was no data to support clinical benefit. This approach was also accompanied by significant toxicities. When a non-operative approach is selected, then concomitant RTCT is superior to the RT alone. This approach is accompanied by significant toxicities. In patients who are in good general condition, and the risk benefit has been thoroughly discussed with the patient, co thoroughly discussed with the patient, concomitant RTCT should be considered for the management of esophageal cancer compared with radiotherapy alone.

Synthesis of the Strychnos Alkaloid (-)-Strychnopivotine and Confirmation of its Absolute Configuration.

PubMed

Maertens, Gaëtan; Canesi, Sylvain

2016-05-17

The first enantioselective synthesis of (-)-strychnopivotine from a known and inexpensive phenol has been achieved in 15 steps. The strategy is based on a new diastereoselective aza-Michael-enol-ether cascade desymmetrization of a dienone, guided by a removable lactic acid-derived chiral auxiliary. Synthesis involves a phenol dearomatization, a conjugated silicon addition, a stereoselective double reductive amination, and two Heck-type carbopalladations as key steps. The absolute configuration of the natural compound, which, to date, has been uncertain, was confirmed by using circular dichroism (CD) spectroscopy and X-ray analyses. © 2016 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Effects of lifestyle intervention in persons at risk for type 2 diabetes mellitus - results from a randomised, controlled trial.

PubMed

Nilsen, Vegard; Bakke, Per S; Gallefoss, Frode

2011-11-25

Lifestyle change is probably the most important single action to prevent type 2 diabetes mellitus. The purpose of this study was to assess the effects of a low-intensity individual lifestyle intervention by a physician and compare this to the same physician intervention combined with an interdisciplinary, group-based approach in a real-life setting. The "Finnish Diabetes Risk score" (FINDRISC) was used by GPs to identify individuals at high risk. A randomised, controlled design and an 18 month follow-up was used to assess the effect of individual lifestyle counselling by a physician (individual physician group, (IG)) every six months, with emphasis on diet and exercise, and compare this to the same individual lifestyle counselling combined with a group-based interdisciplinary program (individual and interdisciplinary group, (IIG)) provided over 16 weeks. Primary outcomes were changes in lifestyle indicated by weight reduction ≥ 5%, improvement in exercise capacity as assessed by VO2 max and diet improvements according to the Smart Diet Score (SDS). 213 participants (104 in the IG and 109 in the IIG group, 50% women), with a mean age of 46 and mean body mass index 37, were included (inclusion rate > 91%) of whom 182 returned at follow-up (drop-out rate 15%). There were no significant differences in changes in lifestyle behaviours between the two groups. At baseline 57% (IG) and 53% (IIG) of participants had poor aerobic capacity and after intervention 35% and 33%, respectively, improved their aerobic capacity at least one metabolic equivalent. Unhealthy diets according to SDS were common in both groups at baseline, 61% (IG) and 60% (IIG), but uncommon at follow-up, 17% and 10%, respectively. At least 5% weight loss was achieved by 35% (IG) and 28% (IIG). In the combined IG and IIG group, at least one primary outcome was achieved by 93% while all primary outcomes were achieved by 6%. Most successful was the 78% reduction in the proportion of participants with unhealthy diet (almost 50% absolute reduction). It is possible to achieve important lifestyle changes in persons at risk for type 2 diabetes with modest clinical efforts. Group intervention yields no additional effects. The design of the study, with high inclusion and low dropout rates, should make the results applicable to ordinary clinical settings. ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT00202748.

The Association of Hot Red Chili Pepper Consumption and Mortality: A Large Population-Based Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Chopan, Mustafa

2017-01-01

The evidence base for the health effects of spice consumption is insufficient, with only one large population-based study and no reports from Europe or North America. Our objective was to analyze the association between consumption of hot red chili peppers and mortality, using a population-based prospective cohort from the National Health and Nutritional Examination Survey (NHANES) III, a representative sample of US noninstitutionalized adults, in which participants were surveyed from 1988 to 1994. The frequency of hot red chili pepper consumption was measured in 16,179 participants at least 18 years of age. Total and cause-specific mortality were the main outcome measures. During 273,877 person-years of follow-up (median 18.9 years), a total of 4,946 deaths were observed. Total mortality for participants who consumed hot red chili peppers was 21.6% compared to 33.6% for those who did not (absolute risk reduction of 12%; relative risk of 0.64). Adjusted for demographic, lifestyle, and clinical characteristics, the hazard ratio was 0.87 (P = 0.01; 95% Confidence Interval 0.77, 0.97). Consumption of hot red chili peppers was associated with a 13% reduction in the instantaneous hazard of death. Similar, but statistically nonsignificant trends were seen for deaths from vascular disease, but not from other causes. In this large population-based prospective study, the consumption of hot red chili pepper was associated with reduced mortality. Hot red chili peppers may be a beneficial component of the diet. PMID:28068423

Pressure-reduction and preservation in custom-made footwear of patients with diabetes and a history of plantar ulceration.

PubMed

Waaijman, R; Arts, M L J; Haspels, R; Busch-Westbroek, T E; Nollet, F; Bus, S A

2012-12-01

To assess the value of using in-shoe plantar pressure analysis to improve and preserve the offloading properties of custom-made footwear in patients with diabetes. Dynamic in-shoe plantar pressures were measured in new custom-made footwear of 117 patients with diabetes, neuropathy, and a healed plantar foot ulcer. In 85 of these patients, high peak pressure locations (peak pressure > 200 kPa) were targeted for pressure reduction (goal: > 25% relief or below an absolute level of 200 kPa) by modifying the footwear. After each of a maximum three rounds of modifications, pressures were measured. In a subgroup of 32 patients, pressures were measured and, if needed, footwear was modified at 3-monthly visits for 1 year. Pressures were compared with those measured in 32 control patients who had no footwear modifications based on pressure analysis. At the previous ulcer location and the highest and second highest pressure locations, peak pressures were significantly reduced by 23%, 21% and 15%, respectively, after modification of footwear. These lowered pressures were maintained or further reduced over time and were significantly lower, by 24-28%, compared with pressures in the control group. The offloading capacity of custom-made footwear for high-risk patients can be effectively improved and preserved using in-shoe plantar pressure analysis as guidance tool for footwear modification. This provides a useful approach to obtain better offloading footwear that may reduce the risk for pressure-related diabetic foot ulcers. © 2012 The Authors. Diabetic Medicine © 2012 Diabetes UK.

A quantitative analysis of sensitivity to the conditioned reinforcing value of terminal-link stimuli in a concurrent-chains schedule.

PubMed Central

Omino, T

1993-01-01

Pigeons were exposed to a concurrent-chains schedule in which a single variable-interval 30-s schedule was used in the initial links and fixed-time schedules were used in the terminal links. Three types of keylight conditions were used in the terminal links. In the first condition, different delays were associated with different keylight stimuli (cued condition). In the second condition, different delays were associated with the same stimulus, either a blackout (uncued blackout condition) or a white key (uncued white condition). Paired values of terminal-link fixed-time schedules differed by a constant ratio of 3:1, while the absolute value of delays was varied from 3 s to 54 s. The results showed that choice proportions for the shorter of two delays increased when the absolute size of the delays was increased for all keylight conditions. Further, the choice proportions for the shorter delay increased from the uncued blackout condition, to the uncued white condition, to the cued condition. A modified version of Fantino's (1969) delay-reduction model (expressed as a function relating the response ratio to the delay-reduction ratio) can be applied to these data by showing that sensitivity to delay reduction increased from the uncued blackout condition, to the uncued white condition, to the cued condition. Thus, the present study demonstrated that a modified version of the delay-reduction model can be used to assess quantitative differences in the terminal-link keylight condition in terms of sensitivity to delay reduction (i.e., the conditioned reinforcing value of the terminal-link keylight stimuli). PMID:8283150

ENVIORNMENTAL TECHNOLOGY VERIFICATION REPORT: ANEST IWATA CORPORATION LPH400-LV HVLP SPRAY GUN

EPA Science Inventory

This Enviornmental Technology Verification reports on the characteristics of a paint spray gun. The research showed that the spray gun provided absolute and relative increases in transfer efficiency over the base line and provided a reduction in the use of paint.

Individualized Statin Benefit for Determining Statin Eligibility in the Primary Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease.

PubMed

Thanassoulis, George; Williams, Ken; Altobelli, Kathleen Kimler; Pencina, Michael J; Cannon, Christopher P; Sniderman, Allan D

2016-04-19

Current guidelines recommend statins in the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease on the basis of predicted cardiovascular risk without directly considering the expected benefits of statin therapy based on the available randomized, controlled trial evidence. We included 2134 participants representing 71.8 million American residents potentially eligible for statins in primary prevention from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey for the years 2005 to 2010. We compared statin eligibilities using 2 separate approaches: a 10-year risk-based approach (≥7.5% 10-year risk) and an individualized benefit approach (ie, based on predicted absolute risk reduction over 10 years [ARR10] ≥2.3% from randomized, controlled trial data). A risk-based approach led to the eligibility of 15.0 million (95% confidence interval, 12.7-17.3 million) Americans, whereas a benefit-based approach identified 24.6 million (95% confidence interval, 21.0-28.1 million). The corresponding numbers needed to treat over 10 years were 21 (range, 9-44) and 25 (range, 9-44). The benefit-based approach identified 9.5 million lower-risk (<7.5% 10-year risk) Americans not currently eligible for statin treatment who had the same or greater expected benefit from statins (≥2.3% ARR10) compared with higher-risk individuals. This lower-risk/acceptable-benefit group includes younger individuals (mean age, 55.2 versus 62.5 years; P<0.001 for benefit based versus risk based) with higher low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (140 versus133 mg/dL; P=0.01). Statin treatment in this group would be expected to prevent an additional 266 508 cardiovascular events over 10 years. An individualized statin benefit approach can identify lower-risk individuals who have equal or greater expected benefit from statins in primary prevention compared with higher-risk individuals. This approach may help develop guideline recommendations that better identify individuals who meaningfully benefit from statin therapy. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

Factors influencing histologic confirmation of high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion cytology.

PubMed

Castle, Philip E; Cox, J Thomas; Schiffman, Mark; Wheeler, Cosette M; Solomon, Diane

2008-09-01

To examine the predictors of histologic confirmation of high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion (HSIL) cytology occurring in follow-up of young women originally referred into a trial because of less severe cytology. We used enrollment HSIL cytology (N=411) as read by clinical center pathologists for women participating in the ASCUS-LSIL Triage Study (ALTS). The primary outcome was histologic cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) grade 3 and early cancer (n=195; 191 CIN 3 and four cancers) as diagnosed by the Pathology Quality Control Group during the 2-year duration of ALTS. The 2-year absolute risk of CIN 3 or worse after an HSIL cytology was 47.4% (95% confidence interval 42.5-52.4%). The 2-year absolute risk of CIN 3 or worse was lowest (14.3%) for women who were human papillomavirus (HPV)-16-negative, had colposcopic impression of less than low-grade, and whose HSIL cytology as called by the clinical center was not also called HSIL or equivocal HSIL cytology by the Pathology Quality Control Group. The 2-year absolute risk of CIN 3 or worse was highest (82.4%) for women who were HPV16-positive, had colposcopic impression of low-grade or worse, and whose HSIL cytology also was called HSIL or equivocal HSIL cytology by the Pathology Quality Control Group. Histologic confirmation of precancer among young women with HSIL cytology was more likely when other risk factors (eg, HPV16) for cervical precancer were present.

Prognostic significance of peripheral monocyte count in patients with extranodal natural killer/T-cell lymphoma

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Extranodal natural killer/T-cell lymphoma (ENKL) has heterogeneous clinical manifestations and prognosis. This study aims to evaluate the prognostic impact of absolute monocyte count (AMC) in ENKL, and provide some immunologically relevant information for better risk stratification in patients with ENKL. Methods Retrospective data from 163 patients newly diagnosed with ENKL were analyzed. The absolute monocyte count (AMC) at diagnosis was analyzed as continuous and dichotomized variables. Independent prognostic factors of survival were determined by Cox regression analysis. Results The AMC at diagnosis were related to overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) in patients with ENKL. Multivariate analysis identified AMC as independent prognostic factors of survival, independent of International Prognostic Index (IPI) and Korean prognostic index (KPI). The prognostic index incorporating AMC and absolute lymphocyte count (ALC), another surrogate factor of immune status, could be used to stratify all 163 patients with ENKL into different prognostic groups. For patients who received chemotherapy followed by radiotherapy (102 cases), the three AMC/ALC index categories identified patients with significantly different survivals. When superimposed on IPI or KPI categories, the AMC/ALC index was better able to identify high-risk patients in the low-risk IPI or KPI category. Conclusion The baseline peripheral monocyte count is shown to be an effective prognostic indicator of survival in ENKL patients. The prognostic index related to tumor microenvironment might be helpful to identify high-risk patients with ENKL. PMID:23638998

An absolute scale for measuring the utility of money

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, P. J.

2010-07-01

Measurement of the utility of money is essential in the insurance industry, for prioritising public spending schemes and for the evaluation of decisions on protection systems in high-hazard industries. Up to this time, however, there has been no universally agreed measure for the utility of money, with many utility functions being in common use. In this paper, we shall derive a single family of utility functions, which have risk-aversion as the only free parameter. The fact that they return a utility of zero at their low, reference datum, either the utility of no money or of one unit of money, irrespective of the value of risk-aversion used, qualifies them to be regarded as absolute scales for the utility of money. Evidence of validation for the concept will be offered based on inferential measurements of risk-aversion, using diverse measurement data.

Understanding and Communicating Medical Risks for Living Kidney Donors: A Matter of Perspective

PubMed Central

Lentine, Krista L.

2017-01-01

Communicating the current knowledge of medical outcomes after live kidney donation necessary to support donor candidates in well informed decision-making requires grounding in perspectives of comparison. Baseline risk (without donating), risk attributable to donation, and absolute risk (after donating) need to be considered. Severe perioperative complications and death are rare, but vary by demographic, clinical, and procedure factors. Innovative capture of “healthy” controls designed to simulate donor selection processes has identified higher risk of ESRD attributable to donation in two studies; importantly, however, the absolute 15-year ESRD incidence in donors remains very low (0.3%). In the first decade after donation, the risk of all-cause mortality and cardiovascular events is no higher than in healthy nondonors. Pregnancies in donors may incur attributable risk of gestational hypertension or preeclampsia (11% versus 5% incidence in one study). A modest rise in uric acid levels beginning early after donation, and a small (1.4%) increase in the 8-year incidence of gout, have also been reported in comparisons to healthy nondonors. As in the general population, postdonation outcomes vary by race, sex, and age. Efforts to improve the counseling and selection of living donors should focus on developing tools for tailored risk prediction according to donor characteristics, and ideally, compared with similar healthy nondonors. PMID:27591246

Dietary carbohydrates and cardiovascular disease risk factors in the Framingham Offspring Cohort

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Evidence from observational studies has suggested that carbohydrate quality rather than absolute intake is associated with greater risk of chronic diseases. The aim of this study was to examine the relationship between carbohydrate intake and dietary glycemic index and several cardiovascular disease...

Green and black tea consumption and risk of stroke: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Arab, Lenore; Liu, Weiqing; Elashoff, David

2009-05-01

Experimental models of stroke provide consistent evidence of smaller stroke volumes in animals ingesting tea components or tea extracts. To assess whether a similar association of black or green tea consumption with reduced risk is evident in human populations, we sought to identify and summarize all human clinical and observational data on tea and stroke. We searched PubMed and Web of Science for all studies on stroke and tea consumption in humans with original data, including estimation or measurement of tea consumption and outcomes of fatal or nonfatal stroke. Data from 9 studies involving 4378 strokes among 194 965 individuals were pooled. The main outcome was the occurrence of fatal or nonfatal stroke. We tested for heterogeneity and calculated the summary effect estimate associated with consumption of >or=3 cups of tea (green or black) per day using random-effects and fixed-effects models for the homogeneous studies. Publication bias was also evaluated. Regardless of their country of origin, individuals consuming >or=3 cups of tea per day had a 21% lower risk of stroke than those consuming <1 cup per day (absolute risk reduction, 0.79; CI, 0.73 to 0.85). The proportion of heterogeneity not explained by chance alone was 23.8%. Although a randomized clinical trial would be necessary to confirm the effect, this meta-analysis suggests that daily consumption of either green or black tea equaling 3 cups per day could prevent the onset of ischemic stroke.

Multiple overlapping systematic reviews facilitate the origin of disputes: the case of thrombolytic therapy for pulmonary embolism.

PubMed

Riva, Nicoletta; Puljak, Livia; Moja, Lorenzo; Ageno, Walter; Schünemann, Holger; Magrini, Nicola; Squizzato, Alessandro

2018-05-01

To explore disagreements in multiple systematic reviews (SRs) assessing the benefit-to-harm ratio of thrombolytic therapy in patients with intermediate-risk pulmonary embolism (PE). MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, and Database of Abstracts and Reviews of Effectiveness were searched up to April 14, 2016. We included SRs and guidelines that evaluated thrombolytic therapy, compared with anticoagulation alone, in intermediate-risk PE. We calculated pooled risk ratio (RR) and absolute risk difference (RD), with interquartile range (IQR), for all-cause mortality, recurrent PE, and major bleeding. We marked the Pulmonary Embolism Thrombolysis trial, the largest trial, as a research milestone. Since its release in 2014, 12 SRs (2-15 included trials) and two major guidelines were published. Studies were concordant in reporting that thrombolysis reduced all-cause mortality (median RD -1.55%, IQR -1.60% to -1.40%; median RR 0.55, IQR 0.48-0.61). Discordant results were found for major bleeding (median RD 4.70%, IQR 0.90%-5.70%), with SRs reporting results in opposite directions. Relevant magnitude of effects and precision for benefits and harms were never prespecified. Fourteen evidence syntheses were published within 25 months. Conclusions suggested mortality reduction associated with thrombolytics. Therapy harm was more dispersed and alternatively considered. Interpretation of the benefit-to-harm ratio was elusive, and modest incremental advantages might or not be important, facilitating the origin of disputes. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Outcomes and Complications of Ahmed Tube Implantation in Asian Eyes.

PubMed

Choo, Jessica Qian Hui; Chen, Ziyou David; Koh, Victor; Liang, Shen; Aquino, Cecilia Maria; Sng, Chelvin; Chew, Paul

2018-06-18

There is a lack of long-term Asian studies on the efficacy and safety of Ahmed glaucoma valve (AGV) implantation. This study seeks to determine the outcomes and complications of AGV implantation in Asians. Retrospective review of AGV surgeries performed at a single centre in Singapore was conducted. 76 patients with primary and secondary glaucoma who underwent their first AGV surgery from 1st January 2010 to 31st December 2012 were considered for our study. Primary outcomes evaluated were: failure, intra-ocular pressure, best-corrected visual acuity (BCVA), number of IOP-lowering medications and complications. Failure was defined by: IOP >21▒mm Hg on two consecutive visits after 3 months, IOP ≤5▒mm Hg on two consecutive visits after 3 months, reoperation for glaucoma, removal of implant or loss of light perception vision. Mean follow-up duration was 33.2±6.9 months. There was significant reduction in IOP (mean reduction 25.9%, P<0.001) and number of IOP-lowering medications (mean reduction 77.8%, P<0.001) at 3 years. Absolute failure rate was 23.9% at 3 years with no difference between eyes with or without previous trabeculectomy and between eyes with primary or secondary glaucoma. Occurrence of post-operative hyphema was a significant risk factor for failure. Commonest post-operative complications were hyphema and tube exposure. At 3 years after AGV surgery in Asian eyes, less than one-quarter of the eyes fulfilled the criteria for surgical failure.

Association of infertility and fertility treatment with mammographic density in a large screening-based cohort of women: a cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Lundberg, Frida E; Johansson, Anna L V; Rodriguez-Wallberg, Kenny; Brand, Judith S; Czene, Kamila; Hall, Per; Iliadou, Anastasia N

2016-04-13

Ovarian stimulation drugs, in particular hormonal agents used for controlled ovarian stimulation (COS) required to perform in vitro fertilization, increase estrogen and progesterone levels and have therefore been suspected to influence breast cancer risk. This study aims to investigate whether infertility and hormonal fertility treatment influences mammographic density, a strong hormone-responsive risk factor for breast cancer. Cross-sectional study including 43,313 women recruited to the Karolinska Mammography Project between 2010 and 2013. Among women who reported having had infertility, 1576 had gone through COS, 1429 had had hormonal stimulation without COS and 5958 had not received any hormonal fertility treatment. Percent and absolute mammographic densities were obtained using the volumetric method Volpara™. Associations with mammographic density were assessed using multivariable generalized linear models, estimating mean differences (MD) with 95 % confidence intervals (CI). After multivariable adjustment, women with a history of infertility had 1.53 cm(3) higher absolute dense volume compared to non-infertile women (95 % CI: 0.70 to 2.35). Among infertile women, only those who had gone through COS treatment had a higher absolute dense volume than those who had not received any hormone treatment (adjusted MD 3.22, 95 % CI: 1.10 to 5.33). No clear associations were observed between infertility, fertility treatment and percent volumetric density. Overall, women reporting infertility had more dense tissue in the breast. The higher absolute dense volume in women treated with COS may indicate a treatment effect, although part of the association might also be due to the underlying infertility. Continued monitoring of cancer risk in infertile women, especially those who undergo COS, is warranted.

Workload and non-contact injury incidence in elite football players competing in European leagues.

PubMed

Delecroix, Barthelemy; McCall, Alan; Dawson, Brian; Berthoin, Serge; Dupont, Gregory

2018-06-02

The aim of this study was to analyse the relationship between absolute and acute:chronic workload ratios and non-contact injury incidence in professional football players and to assess their predictive ability. Elite football players (n = 130) from five teams competing in European domestic and confederation level competitions were followed during one full competitive season. Non-contact injuries were recorded and using session rate of perceived exertion (s-RPE) internal absolute workload and acute:chronic (A:C) workload ratios (4-weeks, 3-weeks, 2-weeks and week-to-week) were calculated using a rolling days method. The relative risk (RR) of non-contact injury was increased (RR = 1.59, CI95%: 1.18-2.15) when a cumulative 4-week absolute workload was greater than 10629 arbitrary units (AU) in comparison with a workload between 3745 and 10628 AU. When the 3-week absolute workload was more than 8319 AU versus between 2822 and 8318 AU injury risk was also increased (RR= 1.46, CI95% 1.08-1.98). Injury incidence was higher when the 4-week A:C ratio was <0.85 versus >0.85 (RR = 1.31, CI95%: 1.02-1.70) and with a 3-week A:C ratio >1.30 versus <1.30 (RR = 1.37, CI95%: 1.05-1.77). Importantly, none of the A:C workload combinations showed high sensitivity or specificity. In elite European footballers, using internal workload (sRPE) revealed that cumulative workloads over 3 and 4 weeks were associated with injury incidence. Additionally, A:C workloads, using combinations of 2, 3 and 4 weeks as the C workloads were also associated with increased injury risk. No A:C workload combination was appropriate to predict injury.

Association between consistent purchase of anticonvulsants or lithium and suicide risk: a longitudinal cohort study from Denmark, 1995-2001.

PubMed

Smith, Eric G; Søndergård, Lars; Lopez, Ana Garcia; Andersen, Per Kragh; Kessing, Lars Vedel

2009-10-01

Prior studies suggest anticonvulsants purchasers may be at greater risk of suicide than lithium purchasers. Longitudinal, retrospective cohort study of all individuals in Denmark purchasing anticonvulsants (valproic acid, carbamazepine, oxcarbazepine or lamotrigine) (n=9952) or lithium (n=6693) from 1995-2001 who also purchased antipsychotics at least once (to select out nonpsychiatric anticonvulsant use). Poisson regression of suicides by medication purchased (anticonvulsants or lithium) was conducted, controlling for age, sex, and calendar year. Confounding by indication was addressed by restricting the comparison to individuals prescribed the same medication: individuals with minimal medication exposure (e.g., who purchased only a single prescription of anticonvulsants) were compared to those individuals with more consistent medication exposure (i.e., purchasing > or = 6 prescriptions of anticonvulsants). Demographics and frequency of anticonvulsant, lithium, or antipsychotic use were similar between lithium and anticonvulsant purchasers. Among patients who also purchased antipsychotic at least once during the study period, purchasing anticonvulsants more consistently (> or = 6 prescriptions) was associated with a substantial reduction in the risk of suicide (RR=0.22, 95% CI=0.11-0.42, p<0.0001), similar to patients consistently purchasing lithium (RR=0.27, 95% CI=0.12-0.62, p=0.006). Absolute suicide risks of consistent anticonvulsant and consistent lithium purchasers were similar. Lack of information about diagnoses and potential confounders, as well as other covariates that may differ between minimal and consistent medication purchasers, are limitations to this study. In this longitudinal study of anticonvulsant purchasers likely to have psychiatric disorders, consistent anticonvulsant treatment was associated with decreased risk of completed suicide.

Microbial keratitis in overnight orthokeratology: review of the first 50 cases.

PubMed

Watt, Kathleen; Swarbrick, Helen A

2005-09-01

Despite growing evidence for clinical efficacy of orthokeratology (OK) for the temporary reduction of myopic refractive error, there has been an increasing number of reports of microbial keratitis (MK) in association with overnight wear of OK lenses. This article analyzes the first 50 cases of MK reported in overnight OK, in order to define the spectrum of the disease and to identify possible risk factors. All reported cases of presumed MK in overnight OK from 2001 onwards were included in the analysis. Demographic data of patients affected and lenses worn, and details of the disease process and possible risk factors were extracted from these reports. Most cases of MK in OK were reported from East Asia (80%) and most affected patients were Asian (88%). The peak age range was from 9 to 15 years (61%). Although Pseudomonas aeruginosa was the predominant organism implicated in this series of cases (52%), an alarmingly high frequency of Acanthamoeba infection (30%) was found. Inappropriate lens care procedures, patient noncompliance with practitioner instructions, and persisting in lens wear despite discomfort emerged as potential risk factors. The high frequency of MK in overnight OK in young Asian patients is likely to reflect the demographics of the OK lens-wearing population. The high frequency of Acanthamoeba infection strongly suggests that tap water rinsing should be eliminated from the lens care regimen for overnight OK. This study does not reveal the absolute incidence or relative risk of MK in overnight OK, and it is therefore premature to ascribe increased risk to this lens-wearing modality compared with other contact lens modalities.

Associations between breast density and a panel of single nucleotide polymorphisms linked to breast cancer risk: a cohort study with digital mammography.

PubMed

Keller, Brad M; McCarthy, Anne Marie; Chen, Jinbo; Armstrong, Katrina; Conant, Emily F; Domchek, Susan M; Kontos, Despina

2015-03-18

Breast density and single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) have both been associated with breast cancer risk. To determine the extent to which these two breast cancer risk factors are associated, we investigate the association between a panel of validated SNPs related to breast cancer and quantitative measures of mammographic density in a cohort of Caucasian and African-American women. In this IRB-approved, HIPAA-compliant study, we analyzed a screening population of 639 women (250 African American and 389 Caucasian) who were tested with a validated panel assay of 12 SNPs previously associated to breast cancer risk. Each woman underwent digital mammography as part of routine screening and all were interpreted as negative. Both absolute and percent estimates of area and volumetric density were quantified on a per-woman basis using validated software. Associations between the number of risk alleles in each SNP and the density measures were assessed through a race-stratified linear regression analysis, adjusted for age, BMI, and Gail lifetime risk. The majority of SNPs were not found to be associated with any measure of breast density. SNP rs3817198 (in LSP1) was significantly associated with both absolute area (p = 0.004) and volumetric (p = 0.019) breast density in Caucasian women. In African-American women, SNPs rs3803662 (in TNRC9/TOX3) and rs4973768 (in NEK10) were significantly associated with absolute (p = 0.042) and percent (p = 0.028) volume density respectively. The majority of SNPs investigated in our study were not found to be significantly associated with breast density, even when accounting for age, BMI, and Gail risk, suggesting that these two different risk factors contain potentially independent information regarding a woman's risk to develop breast cancer. Additionally, the few statistically significant associations between breast density and SNPs were different for Caucasian versus African American women. Larger prospective studies are warranted to validate our findings and determine potential implications for breast cancer risk assessment.

Absolute and relative educational inequalities in depression in Europe.

PubMed

Dudal, Pieter; Bracke, Piet

2016-09-01

To investigate (1) the size of absolute and relative educational inequalities in depression, (2) their variation between European countries, and (3) their relationship with underlying prevalence rates. Analyses are based on the European Social Survey, rounds three and six (N = 57,419). Depression is measured using the shortened Centre of Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale. Education is coded by use of the International Standard Classification of Education. Country-specific logistic regressions are applied. Results point to an elevated risk of depressive symptoms among the lower educated. The cross-national patterns differ between absolute and relative measurements. For men, large relative inequalities are found for countries including Denmark and Sweden, but are accompanied by small absolute inequalities. For women, large relative and absolute inequalities are found in Belgium, Bulgaria, and Hungary. Results point to an empirical association between inequalities and the underlying prevalence rates. However, the strength of the association is only moderate. This research stresses the importance of including both measurements for comparative research and suggests the inclusion of the level of population health in research into inequalities in health.

Managing simulation-based training: A framework for optimizing learning, cost, and time

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richmond, Noah Joseph

This study provides a management framework for optimizing training programs for learning, cost, and time when using simulation based training (SBT) and reality based training (RBT) as resources. Simulation is shown to be an effective means for implementing activity substitution as a way to reduce risk. The risk profile of 22 US Air Force vehicles are calculated, and the potential risk reduction is calculated under the assumption of perfect substitutability of RBT and SBT. Methods are subsequently developed to relax the assumption of perfect substitutability. The transfer effectiveness ratio (TER) concept is defined and modeled as a function of the quality of the simulator used, and the requirements of the activity trained. The Navy F/A-18 is then analyzed in a case study illustrating how learning can be maximized subject to constraints in cost and time, and also subject to the decision maker's preferences for the proportional and absolute use of simulation. Solution methods for optimizing multiple activities across shared resources are next provided. Finally, a simulation strategy including an operations planning program (OPP), an implementation program (IP), an acquisition program (AP), and a pedagogical research program (PRP) is detailed. The study provides the theoretical tools to understand how to leverage SBT, a case study demonstrating these tools' efficacy, and a set of policy recommendations to enable the US military to better utilize SBT in the future.

Safety of benzathine penicillin for preventing congenital syphilis: a systematic review.

PubMed

Galvao, Tais F; Silva, Marcus T; Serruya, Suzanne J; Newman, Lori M; Klausner, Jeffrey D; Pereira, Mauricio G; Fescina, Ricardo

2013-01-01

To estimate the risk of serious adverse reactions to benzathine penicillin in pregnant women for preventing congenital syphilis. We searched for clinical trials or cohorts that assessed the incidence of serious adverse reactions to benzathine penicillin in pregnant women and the general population (indirect evidence). MEDLINE, EMBASE, Scopus and other databases were searched up to December 2012. The GRADE approach was used to assess quality of evidence. Absolute risks of each study were calculated along with their 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). We employed the DerSimonian and Laird random effects model in the meta-analyses. From 2,765 retrieved studies we included 13, representing 3,466,780 patients. The studies that included pregnant women were conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of benzathine penicillin: no serious adverse reactions were reported among the 1,244 pregnant women included. In the general population, among 2,028,982 patients treated, 4 died from an adverse reaction. The pooled risk of death was virtually zero. Fifty-four cases of anaphylaxis were reported (pooled absolute risk = 0.002%; 95% CI: 0%-0.003% I(2) = 12%). From that estimate, penicillin treatment would be expected to result in an incidence of 0 to 3 cases of anaphylaxis per 100,000 treated. Any adverse reactions were reported in 6,377 patients among 3,465,322 treated with penicillin (pooled absolute risk = 0.169%; 95% CI: 0.073%-0.265% I(2) = 97%). The quality of evidence was very low. Studies that assessed the risk of serious adverse events due to benzathine penicillin treatment in pregnant women were scarce, but no reports of adverse reactions were found. The incidence of severe adverse outcomes was very low in the general population. The risk of treating pregnant women with benzathine penicillin to prevent congenital syphilis appears very low and does not outweigh its benefits. Further research is needed to improve the quality of evidence.

Recurrent stroke risk and cerebral microbleed burden in ischemic stroke and TIA

PubMed Central

Wilson, Duncan; Charidimou, Andreas; Ambler, Gareth; Fox, Zoe V.; Gregoire, Simone; Rayson, Phillip; Imaizumi, Toshio; Fluri, Felix; Naka, Hiromitsu; Horstmann, Solveig; Veltkamp, Roland; Rothwell, Peter M.; Kwa, Vincent I.H.; Thijs, Vincent; Lee, Yong-Seok; Kim, Young Dae; Huang, Yining; Wong, Ka Sing; Jäger, Hans Rolf

2016-01-01

Objective: To determine associations between cerebral microbleed (CMB) burden with recurrent ischemic stroke (IS) and intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) risk after IS or TIA. Methods: We identified prospective studies of patients with IS or TIA that investigated CMBs and stroke (ICH and IS) risk during ≥3 months follow-up. Authors provided aggregate summary-level data on stroke outcomes, with CMBs categorized according to burden (single, 2–4, and ≥5 CMBs) and distribution. We calculated absolute event rates and pooled risk ratios (RR) using random-effects meta-analysis. Results: We included 5,068 patients from 15 studies. There were 115/1,284 (9.6%) recurrent IS events in patients with CMBs vs 212/3,781 (5.6%) in patients without CMBs (pooled RR 1.8 for CMBs vs no CMBs; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.4–2.5). There were 49/1,142 (4.3%) ICH events in those with CMBs vs 17/2,912 (0.58%) in those without CMBs (pooled RR 6.3 for CMBs vs no CMBs; 95% CI 3.5–11.4). Increasing CMB burden increased the risk of IS (pooled RR [95% CI] 1.8 [1.0–3.1], 2.4 [1.3–4.4], and 2.7 [1.5–4.9] for 1 CMB, 2–4 CMBs, and ≥5 CMBs, respectively) and ICH (pooled RR [95% CI] 4.6 [1.9–10.7], 5.6 [2.4–13.3], and 14.1 [6.9–29.0] for 1 CMB, 2–4 CMBs, and ≥5 CMBs, respectively). Conclusions: CMBs are associated with increased stroke risk after IS or TIA. With increasing CMB burden (compared to no CMBs), the risk of ICH increases more steeply than that of IS. However, IS absolute event rates remain higher than ICH absolute event rates in all CMB burden categories. PMID:27590288

Clinical, analytical and bioimpedance characteristics of persistently overhydrated haemodialysis patients.

PubMed

Castellano, Sandra; Palomares, Inés; Molina, Manuel; Pérez-García, Rafael; Aljama, Pedro; Ramos, Rosa; Merello, J Ignacio

2014-11-17

Fluid overload is an important and modifiable cardiovascular risk factor for haemodialysis patients. So far, the diagnosis was based on clinical methods alone. Nowadays, we have new tools to assess more objectively the hydration status of the patients on haemodialysis, as BCM (Body Composition Monitor). A Relative Overhydration (AvROH) higher than 15% (it means, Absolute Overhydration or AWOH higher than 2.5 Litres) is associated to greater risk in haemodialysis. However, there is a group of maintained hyperhydrated patients. The aim of the present study is to identify the characteristics of patients with maintained hyperhydrated status (AvROH higher than 15% or AWOH higher than 2.5 liters). The secondary aim is to show the hemodynamic and analytical changes that are related to the reduction in hyperhydration status. Longitudinal cohort study during six months in 2959 patients in haemodialysis (HD) that are grouped according to their hydration status by BCM. And we compare their clinical, analytical and bioimpedance spectroscopy parameters. The change in overhydration status is followed by a decrease in blood pressure and the need for hypotensive drugs (AHT) and erythropoiesis stimulating agents (ESA). The target hydration status is not reached by two subgroups of patients. First, in diabetic patients with a high comorbidity index and high number of hypotensive drugs (AHT) but a great positive sodium gradient during dialysis sessions; and, younger non-diabetic patients with longer time on hemodialysis and positive sodium gradient, lower fat tissue index (FTI) but similar lean tissue index (LTI) and albumin than those with a reduction in hyperhydration status. Those patients with a reduction in hyperhydration status, also show a better control in blood pressure and anemia with less number of AHT and ESA. The maintained hyperhydrated patients, diabetic patients with many comorbidities and young men patients with longer time on hemodialysis and non-adherence treatment, can profit from a constant monitoring of their hydration state as well as an individualized treatment (dialysis and drugs).

The value of male human papillomavirus vaccination in preventing cervical cancer and genital warts in a low-resource setting.

PubMed

Sharma, M; Sy, S; Kim, J J

2016-05-01

To estimate health benefits and incremental cost-effectiveness of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination of pre-adolescent boys and girls compared with girls alone for preventing cervical cancer and genital warts. Model-based economic evaluation. Southern Vietnam. Males and females aged ≥9 years. We simulated dynamic HPV transmission to estimate cervical cancer and genital warts cases. Models were calibrated to epidemiological data from south Vietnam. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs): cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). Vaccinating girls alone was associated with reductions in lifetime cervical cancer risk ranging from 20 to 56.9% as coverage varied from 25 to 90%. Adding boys to the vaccination programme yielded marginal incremental benefits (≤3.6% higher absolute cervical cancer risk reduction), compared with vaccinating girls alone at all coverages. At ≤25 international dollars (I$) per vaccinated adolescent (I$5 per dose), HPV vaccination of boys was below the threshold of Vietnam's per-capita GDP (I$2800), with ICERs ranging from I$734 per QALY at 25% coverage to I$2064 per QALY for 90% coverage. Including health benefits from averting genital warts yielded more favourable ICERs, and vaccination of boys at I$10/dose became cost-effective at or below 75% coverage. Using a lower cost-effectiveness threshold of 50% of Vietnam's GDP (I$1400), vaccinating boys was no longer attractive at costs above I$5 per dose regardless of coverage. Vaccination of boys may be cost-effective at low vaccine costs, but provides little benefit over vaccinating girls only. Focusing on achieving high vaccine coverage of girls may be more efficient for southern Vietnam and similar low-resource settings. Limited cervical cancer reduction from including boys in HPV vaccination of girls in low-resource settings. © 2015 Royal College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists.

Trends in educational inequalities in cause specific mortality in Norway from 1960 to 2010: a turning point for educational inequalities in cause specific mortality of Norwegian men after the millennium?

PubMed

Strand, Bjørn Heine; Steingrímsdóttir, Ólöf Anna; Grøholt, Else-Karin; Ariansen, Inger; Graff-Iversen, Sidsel; Næss, Øyvind

2014-11-24

Educational inequalities in total mortality in Norway have widened during 1960-2000. We wanted to investigate if inequalities have continued to increase in the post millennium decade, and which causes of deaths were the main drivers. All deaths (total and cause specific) in the adult Norwegian population aged 45-74 years over five decades, until 2010 were included; in all 708,449 deaths and over 62 million person years. Two indices of inequalities were used to measure inequality and changes in inequalities over time, on the relative scale (Relative Index of Inequality, RII) and on the absolute scale (Slope Index of Inequality, SII). Relative inequalities in total mortality increased over the five decades in both genders. Among men absolute inequalities stabilized during 2000-2010, after steady, significant increases each decade back to the 1960s, while in women, absolute inequalities continued to increase significantly during the last decade. The stabilization in absolute inequalities among men in the last decade was mostly due to a fall in inequalities in cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality and lung cancer and respiratory disease mortality. Still, in this last decade, the absolute inequalities in cause-specific mortality among men were mostly due to cardiovascular diseases (CVD) (34% of total mortality inequality), lung cancer and respiratory diseases (21%). Among women the absolute inequalities in mortality were mostly due to lung cancer and chronic lower respiratory tract diseases (30%) and CVD (27%). In men, absolute inequalities in mortality have stopped increasing, seemingly due to reduction in inequalities in CVD mortality. Absolute inequality in mortality continues to widen among women, mostly due to death from lung cancer and chronic lung disease. Relative educational inequalities in mortality are still on the rise for Norwegian men and women.

Absolute and relative risk of cardiovascular disease in men with prostate cancer: results from the Population-Based PCBaSe Sweden.

PubMed

Van Hemelrijck, Mieke; Garmo, Hans; Holmberg, Lars; Ingelsson, Erik; Bratt, Ola; Bill-Axelson, Anna; Lambe, Mats; Stattin, Pär; Adolfsson, Jan

2010-07-20

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a potential adverse effect of endocrine treatment (ET) for prostate cancer (PC). We investigated absolute and relative CVD risk in 76,600 patients with PC undergoing ET, curative treatment, or surveillance. PCBaSe Sweden is based on the National Prostate Cancer Register, which covers more than 96% of PC cases. Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) and standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) of ischemic heart disease (IHD), acute myocardial infarction (MI), arrhythmia, heart failure, and stroke were calculated to compare observed and expected (using total Swedish population) numbers of CVD, taking into account age, calendar time, and previous CVD. Between 1997 and 2007, 30,642 patients with PC received primary ET, 26,432 curative treatment, and 19,527 surveillance. SIRs for CVD were elevated in all men with the highest for those undergoing ET, independent of circulatory disease history (SIR MI for men without circulatory disease history: 1.40 [95% CI, 1.31 to 1.49], 1.15 [95% CI, 1.01 to 1.31], and 1.20 [95% CI, 1.11 to 1.30] for men undergoing ET, curative treatment, and surveillance, respectively). Absolute risk differences (ARD) showed that two (arrhythmia) to eight (IHD) extra cases of CVD would occur per 1,000 person-years. SMRs showed similar patterns, with ARD of zero (arrhythmia) to three (IHD) per 1,000 person-years. Increased relative risks of nonfatal and fatal CVD were found among all men with PC, especially those treated with ET. Because ET is currently the only effective treatment for metastatic disease and the ARDs were rather small, our findings indicate that CVD risk should be considered when prescribing ET but should not constitute a contraindication when the expected gain is tangible.

Effect of acidity of in-office bleaching gels on tooth sensitivity and whitening: a two-center double-blind randomized clinical trial.

PubMed

Loguercio, A D; Servat, F; Stanislawczuk, R; Mena-Serrano, A; Rezende, M; Prieto, M V; Cereño, V; Rojas, M F; Ortega, K; Fernandez, E; Reis, A

2017-12-01

The study aimed to compare the tooth sensitivity (TS) and bleaching efficacy of two hydrogen peroxide gels with different pHs (acid pH [Pola Office, SDI] and the neutral pH [Pola Office+, SDI]) used for in-office bleaching. Fifty-four patients from Brazil and Chile, with right superior incisor darker than A2, were selected for this double-blind, split-mouth randomized trial. Teeth were bleached in two sessions, with 1-week interval. Each session had three applications of 8 min each, according to the manufacturer's instructions. The color changes were evaluated by subjective (Vita Classical and Vita Bleachedguide) and objective (Easy shade spectrophotometer) methods. Participants recorded TS with 0-10 visual analog scale. Color change in shade guide units (SGU) and ΔE was analyzed by Student's t test (α = 0.05). The absolute risk and intensity of TS were evaluated by McNemar's test and Wilcoxon-paired test, respectively (α = 0.05). All groups achieved the same level of whitening after 30 days of clinical evaluation. The use of a neutral in-office bleaching gel significantly decreases the absolute risk of TS (28%, 95% CI 18-41) and intensity of TS when compared to the acid bleaching gel (absolute risk of 50%, 95% CI 37-63). The use of a neutral in-office bleaching agent gel produced the same whitening degree than an acid bleaching gel but with reduced risk and intensity of tooth sensitivity. Clinicians should opt to use in-office bleaching with a neutral gel than an acid product because the former causes a significant lower risk and intensity of tooth sensitivity.

Cardiovascular risk assessment: audit findings from a nurse clinic--a quality improvement initiative.

PubMed

Waldron, Sarah; Horsburgh, Margaret

2009-09-01

Evidence has shown the effectiveness of risk factor management in reducing mortality and morbidity from cardiovascular disease (CVD). An audit of a nurse CVD risk assessment programme undertaken between November 2005 and December 2008 in a Northland general practice. A retrospective audit of CVD risk assessment with data for the first entry of 621 patients collected exclusively from PREDICT-CVDTM, along with subsequent data collected from 320 of these patients who had a subsequent assessment recorded at an interval ranging from six months to three years (18 month average). Of the eligible population (71%) with an initial CVD risk assessment, 430 (69.2%) had afive-year absolute risk less than 15%, with 84 (13.5%) having a risk greater than 15% and having not had a cardiovascular event. Of the patients with a follow-up CVD risk assessment, 34 showed improvement. Medication prescribing for patients with absolute CVD risk greater than 15% increased from 71% to 86% for anti-platelet medication and for lipid lowering medication from 65% to 72% in the audit period. The recently available 'heart health' trajectory tool will help patients become more aware of risks that are modifiable, together with community support to engage more patients in the nurse CVD prevention programme. Further medication audits to monitor prescribing trends. Patients who showed an improvement in CVD risk had an improvement in one or more modifiable risk factors and became actively involved in making changes to their health.

Current recommendations: what is the clinician to do?

PubMed

Manson, Joann E

2014-04-01

Menopausal hormone therapy (HT) has complex biologic effects but continues to have an important clinical role in the management of vasomotor and other menopausal symptoms. The rational use of menopausal HT requires balancing the potential benefits and risks of treatment. Findings from the Women's Health Initiative (WHI) and other randomized clinical trials have helped to clarify the benefits and risks of HT and have provided insights to improve decision making. Several clinical characteristics have utility in identifying women for whom benefits of HT are likely to outweigh the risks. Age and time since menopause are strong predictors of health outcomes and absolute risks associated with HT, and differences by age have been particularly apparent for estrogen alone. In the WHI trial of conjugated equine estrogens (CEE) alone, younger women (50-59 years) had more favorable results for all-cause mortality, myocardial infarction, and the global index, but not for stroke and venous thrombosis. Age trends were less clear for CEE + medroxyprogesterone acetate, owing to increased risks of breast cancer, stroke, and venous thrombosis in all age groups. Absolute risks of adverse events were lower in younger than in older women in both trials, however. Other predictors of lower vascular risk from HT include favorable lipid status and absence of the metabolic syndrome. Transdermal administration may be associated with lower risks of venous thrombosis and stroke, but additional research is needed. The use of risk stratification and personalized risk assessment offers promise for improved benefit-risk profile and safety of HT. One approach to decision making is presented. Key elements include: assessment of whether the patient has moderate to severe menopausal symptoms, the primary indication for initiating systemic HT (vaginal estrogen may be used to treat genitourinary symptoms in the absence of vasomotor symptoms); understanding the patient's own preference regarding therapy; evaluating the patient for the presence of any contraindications to HT, as well as the time since menopause onset and baseline risks of cardiovascular disease and breast cancer; reviewing carefully the benefits and risks of treatment with the patient, giving more emphasis to absolute than to relative measures of effect; and, if HT is initiated, regularly reviewing the patient's need for continued treatment. Copyright © 2014 American Society for Reproductive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Preoperative intra-aortic balloon pump use in high-risk patients prior to coronary artery bypass graft surgery decreases the risk for morbidity and mortality-A meta-analysis of 9,212 patients.

PubMed

Deppe, Antje-Christin; Weber, Carolyn; Liakopoulos, Oliver J; Zeriouh, Mohamed; Slottosch, Ingo; Scherner, Maximilian; Kuhn, Elmar W; Choi, Yeong-Hoon; Wahlers, Thorsten

2017-03-01

Prophylactic intra-aortic balloon pump (IABP) support for high-risk patients before coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) is controversial. This meta-analysis sought to determine the current role of preoperative IABP support. We performed a meta-analysis of randomized (RCT) and observational trials (OT) that fulfilled the following criteria: (1) Group comparison of patients with prophylactic IABP implantation before CABG with a control group; (2) reporting at least one desired clinical endpoint, including all-cause mortality, myocardial infarction, cerebrovascular accident (CVA), and renal failure. Pooled treatment effects (odds ratio [OR] or weighted mean difference, and 95% confidence intervals [95%CI]) were assessed using a fixed or random effects model. A total of 9,212 patients from 23 studies (7 RCT, 16 OT) were identified after a literature search of major databases using a predefined keyword list. Absolute risk reduction for mortality in RCTs was 4.4% (OR 0.43; 95%CI 0.25-0.73; p = 0.0025). Prophylactic IABP use before CABG surgery also decreased the risk for myocardial infarction (OR 0.58; 95%CI 0.43-0.78; p = 0.004), CVA (OR 0.67; 95%CI 0.47-0.97; p = 0.042), and renal failure (OR 0.62; 95%CI 0.47-0.83; p = 0.0014). Length of intensive care unit stay (p < 0.0001) and length of hospital stay (p < 0.0001) were significantly reduced in patients with preoperative IABP use. Current evidence from RCT and OT suggests beneficial effects for the IABP in high-risk patients before CABG surgery. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Tsunamis: Global Exposure and Local Risk Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harbitz, C. B.; Løvholt, F.; Glimsdal, S.; Horspool, N.; Griffin, J.; Davies, G.; Frauenfelder, R.

2014-12-01

The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami led to a better understanding of the likelihood of tsunami occurrence and potential tsunami inundation, and the Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) was one direct result of this event. The United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction (UN-ISDR) adopted HFA in January 2005 in order to reduce disaster risk. As an instrument to compare the risk due to different natural hazards, an integrated worldwide study was implemented and published in several Global Assessment Reports (GAR) by UN-ISDR. The results of the global earthquake induced tsunami hazard and exposure analysis for a return period of 500 years are presented. Both deterministic and probabilistic methods (PTHA) are used. The resulting hazard levels for both methods are compared quantitatively for selected areas. The comparison demonstrates that the analysis is rather rough, which is expected for a study aiming at average trends on a country level across the globe. It is shown that populous Asian countries account for the largest absolute number of people living in tsunami prone areas, more than 50% of the total exposed people live in Japan. Smaller nations like Macao and the Maldives are among the most exposed by population count. Exposed nuclear power plants are limited to Japan, China, India, Taiwan, and USA. On the contrary, a local tsunami vulnerability and risk analysis applies information on population, building types, infrastructure, inundation, flow depth for a certain tsunami scenario with a corresponding return period combined with empirical data on tsunami damages and mortality. Results and validation of a GIS tsunami vulnerability and risk assessment model are presented. The GIS model is adapted for optimal use of data available for each study. Finally, the importance of including landslide sources in the tsunami analysis is also discussed.

Influence of pretreatment systolic blood pressure on the effect of carvedilol in patients with severe chronic heart failure: the Carvedilol Prospective Randomized Cumulative Survival (COPERNICUS) study.

PubMed

Rouleau, Jean L; Roecker, Ellen B; Tendera, Michal; Mohacsi, Paul; Krum, Henry; Katus, Hugo A; Fowler, Michael B; Coats, Andrew J S; Castaigne, Alain; Scherhag, Armin; Holcslaw, Terry L; Packer, Milton

2004-04-21

We sought to evaluate the influence of pretreatment systolic blood pressure (SBP) on the efficacy and safety of carvedilol in patients with chronic heart failure (CHF). Although beta-blockers reduce the risk of death in CHF, there is little reported experience with these drugs in patients with a low pretreatment SBP, who may respond poorly to beta-blockade. We studied 2,289 patients with severe CHF who participated in the Carvedilol Prospective Randomized Cumulative Survival (COPERNICUS) trial. Compared with placebo, carvedilol improved the clinical status and reduced the risk of death and the combined risk of death or hospitalization for any reason, for a cardiovascular reason, or for worsening heart failure (p < 0.001 for all). The relative magnitude of these benefits did not vary as a function of the pretreatment SBP (all interaction: p > 0.10). However, because patients with the lowest SBP were at highest risk of an event, they experienced the greatest absolute benefit from treatment with carvedilol. The lower the pretreatment SBP, the more likely that patients would report an adverse event, be intolerant of high doses of the study drug, or require permanent withdrawal of treatment (p < 0.001 for all). However, these risks were primarily related to the severity of the underlying illness and not to treatment with carvedilol. The current study provides little support for concerns about using beta-blockers (particularly those with vasodilatory actions) in patients with severe CHF who have a low SBP. Pretreatment blood pressure can identify patients who have the greatest need for risk reduction with carvedilol.

Self-reported testing, HIV status and associated risk behaviours among people who inject drugs in Europe: important differences between East and West.

PubMed

Uusküla, Anneli; Raag, Mait; Folch, Cinta; Prasad, Leoni; Karnite, Anda; van Veen, Maaike G; Eritsyan, Ksenia; Rosinska, Magdalena; Des Jarlais, Don C; Wiessing, Lucas

2014-07-17

To describe HIV-related risk behaviours, HIV testing and HIV status among people who inject drugs (PWIDs) in the 2000 in European countries with high-prevalence HIV epidemics among PWID. Data from 12 cross-sectional studies among PWID from seven countries were used. Meta-analysis was used to synthesize the data and meta-regression to explain heterogeneity [in addition to deriving adjusted odds ratios (AORmeta)]. Data on 1791 PWID from western (the West) and 3537 from central and eastern (the East) European countries were available. The mean age of participating PWIDs was 30.6 years (SD 7.9), 75% were men, and 36% [95% confidence interval 34-37%) were HIV-infected (30% West, 38% East); 22% had not previously been tested for HIV. The prevalence of reported high-risk behaviour was significantly higher among PWID from the East. Comparison of HIV-infected and uninfected PWID within countries yielded similar results across all countries: HIV-infected PWID were less likely to be sexually active [AORmeta 0.69 (0.58-0.81)], reported less unprotected sex [AORmeta 0.59 (0.40-0.83)], but reported more syringe sharing [AORmeta 1.70 (1.30-2.00)] and more frequent injecting [AORmeta 1.40 (1.20-1.70)] than their HIV-uninfected counterparts. Despite the absolute differences in reported risk behaviours among PWID in western and eastern Europe, the associations of risk behaviours with HIV status were similar across the sites and regions. There is a substantial potential for further HIV transmission and acquisition based on the continuous risk behaviours reported. HIV prevention and harm reduction interventions targeting PWID should be evaluated.

The performance of different propensity score methods for estimating absolute effects of treatments on survival outcomes: A simulation study.

PubMed

Austin, Peter C; Schuster, Tibor

2016-10-01

Observational studies are increasingly being used to estimate the effect of treatments, interventions and exposures on outcomes that can occur over time. Historically, the hazard ratio, which is a relative measure of effect, has been reported. However, medical decision making is best informed when both relative and absolute measures of effect are reported. When outcomes are time-to-event in nature, the effect of treatment can also be quantified as the change in mean or median survival time due to treatment and the absolute reduction in the probability of the occurrence of an event within a specified duration of follow-up. We describe how three different propensity score methods, propensity score matching, stratification on the propensity score and inverse probability of treatment weighting using the propensity score, can be used to estimate absolute measures of treatment effect on survival outcomes. These methods are all based on estimating marginal survival functions under treatment and lack of treatment. We then conducted an extensive series of Monte Carlo simulations to compare the relative performance of these methods for estimating the absolute effects of treatment on survival outcomes. We found that stratification on the propensity score resulted in the greatest bias. Caliper matching on the propensity score and a method based on earlier work by Cole and Hernán tended to have the best performance for estimating absolute effects of treatment on survival outcomes. When the prevalence of treatment was less extreme, then inverse probability of treatment weighting-based methods tended to perform better than matching-based methods. © The Author(s) 2014.

Dispositional optimism and perceived risk interact to predict intentions to learn genome sequencing results.

PubMed

Taber, Jennifer M; Klein, William M P; Ferrer, Rebecca A; Lewis, Katie L; Biesecker, Leslie G; Biesecker, Barbara B

2015-07-01

Dispositional optimism and risk perceptions are each associated with health-related behaviors and decisions and other outcomes, but little research has examined how these constructs interact, particularly in consequential health contexts. The predictive validity of risk perceptions for health-related information seeking and intentions may be improved by examining dispositional optimism as a moderator, and by testing alternate types of risk perceptions, such as comparative and experiential risk. Participants (n = 496) had their genomes sequenced as part of a National Institutes of Health pilot cohort study (ClinSeq®). Participants completed a cross-sectional baseline survey of various types of risk perceptions and intentions to learn genome sequencing results for differing disease risks (e.g., medically actionable, nonmedically actionable, carrier status) and to use this information to change their lifestyle/health behaviors. Risk perceptions (absolute, comparative, and experiential) were largely unassociated with intentions to learn sequencing results. Dispositional optimism and comparative risk perceptions interacted, however, such that individuals higher in optimism reported greater intentions to learn all 3 types of sequencing results when comparative risk was perceived to be higher than when it was perceived to be lower. This interaction was inconsistent for experiential risk and absent for absolute risk. Independent of perceived risk, participants high in dispositional optimism reported greater interest in learning risks for nonmedically actionable disease and carrier status, and greater intentions to use genome information to change their lifestyle/health behaviors. The relationship between risk perceptions and intentions may depend on how risk perceptions are assessed and on degree of optimism. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved.

Dispositional Optimism and Perceived Risk Interact to Predict Intentions to Learn Genome Sequencing Results

PubMed Central

Taber, Jennifer M.; Klein, William M. P.; Ferrer, Rebecca A.; Lewis, Katie L.; Biesecker, Leslie G.; Biesecker, Barbara B.

2015-01-01

Objective Dispositional optimism and risk perceptions are each associated with health-related behaviors and decisions and other outcomes, but little research has examined how these constructs interact, particularly in consequential health contexts. The predictive validity of risk perceptions for health-related information seeking and intentions may be improved by examining dispositional optimism as a moderator, and by testing alternate types of risk perceptions, such as comparative and experiential risk. Method Participants (n = 496) had their genomes sequenced as part of a National Institutes of Health pilot cohort study (ClinSeq®). Participants completed a cross-sectional baseline survey of various types of risk perceptions and intentions to learn genome sequencing results for differing disease risks (e.g., medically actionable, nonmedically actionable, carrier status) and to use this information to change their lifestyle/health behaviors. Results Risk perceptions (absolute, comparative, and experiential) were largely unassociated with intentions to learn sequencing results. Dispositional optimism and comparative risk perceptions interacted, however, such that individuals higher in optimism reported greater intentions to learn all 3 types of sequencing results when comparative risk was perceived to be higher than when it was perceived to be lower. This interaction was inconsistent for experiential risk and absent for absolute risk. Independent of perceived risk, participants high in dispositional optimism reported greater interest in learning risks for nonmedically actionable disease and carrier status, and greater intentions to use genome information to change their lifestyle/health behaviors. Conclusions The relationship between risk perceptions and intentions may depend on how risk perceptions are assessed and on degree of optimism. PMID:25313897

Trends in inequalities in premature mortality: a study of 3.2 million deaths in 13 European countries.

PubMed

Mackenbach, Johan P; Kulhánová, Ivana; Menvielle, Gwenn; Bopp, Matthias; Borrell, Carme; Costa, Giuseppe; Deboosere, Patrick; Esnaola, Santiago; Kalediene, Ramune; Kovacs, Katalin; Leinsalu, Mall; Martikainen, Pekka; Regidor, Enrique; Rodriguez-Sanz, Maica; Strand, Bjørn Heine; Hoffmann, Rasmus; Eikemo, Terje A; Östergren, Olof; Lundberg, Olle

2015-03-01

Over the last decades of the 20th century, a widening of the gap in death rates between upper and lower socioeconomic groups has been reported for many European countries. For most countries, it is unknown whether this widening has continued into the first decade of the 21st century. We collected and harmonised data on mortality by educational level among men and women aged 30-74 years in all countries with available data: Finland, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, England and Wales, Belgium, France, Switzerland, Spain, Italy, Hungary, Lithuania and Estonia. Relative inequalities in premature mortality increased in most populations in the North, West and East of Europe, but not in the South. This was mostly due to smaller proportional reductions in mortality among the lower than the higher educated, but in the case of Lithuania and Estonia, mortality rose among the lower and declined among the higher educated. Mortality among the lower educated rose in many countries for conditions linked to smoking (lung cancer, women only) and excessive alcohol consumption (liver cirrhosis and external causes). In absolute terms, however, reductions in premature mortality were larger among the lower educated in many countries, mainly due to larger absolute reductions in mortality from cardiovascular disease and cancer (men only). Despite rising levels of education, population-attributable fractions of lower education for mortality rose in many countries. Relative inequalities in premature mortality have continued to rise in most European countries, and since the 1990s, the contrast between the South (with smaller inequalities) and the East (with larger inequalities) has become stronger. While the population impact of these inequalities has further increased, there are also some encouraging signs of larger absolute reductions in mortality among the lower educated in many countries. Reducing inequalities in mortality critically depends upon speeding up mortality declines among the lower educated, and countering mortality increases from conditions linked to smoking and excessive alcohol consumption such as lung cancer, liver cirrhosis and external causes. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Using thresholds based on risk of cardiovascular disease to target treatment for hypertension: modelling events averted and number treated

PubMed Central

Baker, Simon; Priest, Patricia; Jackson, Rod

2000-01-01

Objective To estimate the impact of using thresholds based on absolute risk of cardiovascular disease to target drug treatment to lower blood pressure in the community. Design Modelling of three thresholds of treatment for hypertension based on the absolute risk of cardiovascular disease. 5 year risk of disease was estimated for each participant using an equation to predict risk. Net predicted impact of the thresholds on the number of people treated and the number of disease events averted over 5 years was calculated assuming a relative treatment benefit of one quarter. Setting Auckland, New Zealand. Participants 2158 men and women aged 35-79 years randomly sampled from the general electoral rolls. Main outcome measures Predicted 5 year risk of cardiovascular disease event, estimated number of people for whom treatment would be recommended, and disease events averted over 5 years at different treatment thresholds. Results 46 374 (12%) Auckland residents aged 35-79 receive drug treatment to lower their blood pressure, averting an estimated 1689 disease events over 5 years. Restricting treatment to individuals with blood pressure ⩾170/100 mm Hg and those with blood pressure between 150/90-169/99 mm Hg who have a predicted 5 year risk of disease ⩾10% would increase the net number for whom treatment would be recommended by 19 401. This 42% relative increase is predicted to avert 1139/1689 (68%) additional disease events overall over 5 years compared with current treatment. If the threshold for 5 year risk of disease is set at 15% the number recommended for treatment increases by <10% but about 620/1689 (37%) additional events can be averted. A 20% threshold decreases the net number of patients recommended for treatment by about 10% but averts 204/1689 (12%) more disease events than current treatment. Conclusions Implementing treatment guidelines that use treatment thresholds based on absolute risk could significantly improve the efficiency of drug treatment to lower blood pressure in primary care. PMID:10710577

Aprepitant Has Mixed Effects on Nausea and Reduces Other Symptoms in Patients With Gastroparesis and Related Disorders.

PubMed

Pasricha, Pankaj J; Yates, Katherine P; Sarosiek, Irene; McCallum, Richard W; Abell, Thomas L; Koch, Kenneth L; Nguyen, Linda Anh B; Snape, William J; Hasler, William L; Clarke, John O; Dhalla, Sameer; Stein, Ellen M; Lee, Linda A; Miriel, Laura A; Van Natta, Mark L; Grover, Madhusudan; Farrugia, Gianrico; Tonascia, James; Hamilton, Frank A; Parkman, Henry P

2018-01-01

There are few effective treatments for nausea and other symptoms in patients with gastroparesis and related syndromes. We performed a randomized trial of the ability of the neurokinin-1 receptor antagonist aprepitant to reduce symptoms in patients with chronic nausea and vomiting caused by gastroparesis or gastroparesis-like syndrome. We conducted a 4-week multicenter, double-masked trial of 126 patients with at least moderate symptoms of chronic nausea and vomiting of presumed gastric origin for a minimum of 6 months. Patients were randomly assigned to groups given oral aprepitant (125 mg/day, n = 63) or placebo (n = 63). The primary outcome from the intention-to-treat analysis was reduction in nausea, defined as a decrease of 25 mm or more, or absolute level below 25 mm, on a daily patient-reported 0-to-100 visual analog scale (VAS) of nausea severity. We calculated relative risks of nausea improvement using stratified Cochran-Mental-Haenszel analysis. Aprepitant did not reduce symptoms of nausea, based on the primary outcome measure (46% reduction in the VAS score in the aprepitant group vs 40% reduction in the placebo group; relative risk, 1.2; 95% CI, 0.8-1.7) (P = .43). However, patients in the aprepitant group had significant changes in secondary outcomes such as reduction in symptom severity (measured by the 0-5 Gastroparesis Clinical Symptom Index) for nausea (1.8 vs 1.0; P = .005), vomiting (1.6 vs 0.5; P = .001), and overall symptoms (1.3 vs 0.7; P = .001). Adverse events, predominantly mild or moderate in severity grade, were more common in aprepitant (22 of 63 patients, 35% vs 11 of 63, 17% in the placebo group) (P = .04). In a randomized trial of patients with chronic nausea and vomiting caused by gastroparesis or gastroparesis-like syndrome, aprepitant did not reduce the severity of nausea when reduction in VAS score was used as the primary outcome. However, aprepitant had varying effects on secondary outcomes of symptom improvement. These findings support the need to identify appropriate patient outcomes for trials of therapies for gastroparesis, including potential additional trials for aprepitant. ClinicalTrials.gov no: NCT01149369. Copyright © 2018 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of risk-reduction measures to reach water safety targets.

PubMed

Lindhe, Andreas; Rosén, Lars; Norberg, Tommy; Bergstedt, Olof; Pettersson, Thomas J R

2011-01-01

Identifying the most suitable risk-reduction measures in drinking water systems requires a thorough analysis of possible alternatives. In addition to the effects on the risk level, also the economic aspects of the risk-reduction alternatives are commonly considered important. Drinking water supplies are complex systems and to avoid sub-optimisation of risk-reduction measures, the entire system from source to tap needs to be considered. There is a lack of methods for quantification of water supply risk reduction in an economic context for entire drinking water systems. The aim of this paper is to present a novel approach for risk assessment in combination with economic analysis to evaluate risk-reduction measures based on a source-to-tap approach. The approach combines a probabilistic and dynamic fault tree method with cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA). The developed approach comprises the following main parts: (1) quantification of risk reduction of alternatives using a probabilistic fault tree model of the entire system; (2) combination of the modelling results with CEA; and (3) evaluation of the alternatives with respect to the risk reduction, the probability of not reaching water safety targets and the cost-effectiveness. The fault tree method and CEA enable comparison of risk-reduction measures in the same quantitative unit and consider costs and uncertainties. The approach provides a structured and thorough analysis of risk-reduction measures that facilitates transparency and long-term planning of drinking water systems in order to avoid sub-optimisation of available resources for risk reduction. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Neighbourhood socioeconomic inequalities in incidence of acute myocardial infarction: a cohort study quantifying age- and gender-specific differences in relative and absolute terms.

PubMed

Koopman, Carla; van Oeffelen, Aloysia A M; Bots, Michiel L; Engelfriet, Peter M; Verschuren, W M Monique; van Rossem, Lenie; van Dis, Ineke; Capewell, Simon; Vaartjes, Ilonca

2012-08-07

Socioeconomic status has a profound effect on the risk of having a first acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Information on socioeconomic inequalities in AMI incidence across age-gender-groups is lacking. Our objective was to examine socioeconomic inequalities in the incidence of AMI considering both relative and absolute measures of risk differences, with a particular focus on age and gender. We identified all patients with a first AMI from 1997 to 2007 through linked hospital discharge and death records covering the Dutch population. Relative risks (RR) of AMI incidence were estimated by mean equivalent household income at neighbourhood-level for strata of age and gender using Poisson regression models. Socioeconomic inequalities were also shown within the stratified age-gender groups by calculating the total number of events attributable to socioeconomic disadvantage. Between 1997 and 2007, 317,564 people had a first AMI. When comparing the most deprived socioeconomic quintile with the most affluent quintile, the overall RR for AMI was 1.34 (95 % confidence interval (CI): 1.32-1.36) in men and 1.44 (95 % CI: 1.42-1.47) in women. The socioeconomic gradient decreased with age. Relative socioeconomic inequalities were most apparent in men under 35 years and in women under 65 years. The largest number of events attributable to socioeconomic inequalities was found in men aged 45-74 years and in women aged 65-84 years. The total proportion of AMIs that was attributable to socioeconomic inequalities in the Dutch population of 1997 to 2007 was 14 % in men and 18 % in women. Neighbourhood socioeconomic inequalities were observed in AMI incidence in the Netherlands, but the magnitude across age-gender groups depended on whether inequality was expressed in relative or absolute terms. Relative socioeconomic inequalities were high in young persons and women, where the absolute burden of AMI was low. Absolute socioeconomic inequalities in AMI were highest in the age-gender groups of middle-aged men and elderly women, where the number of cases was largest.

Neighbourhood socioeconomic inequalities in incidence of acute myocardial infarction: a cohort study quantifying age- and gender-specific differences in relative and absolute terms

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Socioeconomic status has a profound effect on the risk of having a first acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Information on socioeconomic inequalities in AMI incidence across age- gender-groups is lacking. Our objective was to examine socioeconomic inequalities in the incidence of AMI considering both relative and absolute measures of risk differences, with a particular focus on age and gender. Methods We identified all patients with a first AMI from 1997 to 2007 through linked hospital discharge and death records covering the Dutch population. Relative risks (RR) of AMI incidence were estimated by mean equivalent household income at neighbourhood-level for strata of age and gender using Poisson regression models. Socioeconomic inequalities were also shown within the stratified age-gender groups by calculating the total number of events attributable to socioeconomic disadvantage. Results Between 1997 and 2007, 317,564 people had a first AMI. When comparing the most deprived socioeconomic quintile with the most affluent quintile, the overall RR for AMI was 1.34 (95 % confidence interval (CI): 1.32 – 1.36) in men and 1.44 (95 % CI: 1.42 – 1.47) in women. The socioeconomic gradient decreased with age. Relative socioeconomic inequalities were most apparent in men under 35 years and in women under 65 years. The largest number of events attributable to socioeconomic inequalities was found in men aged 45–74 years and in women aged 65–84 years. The total proportion of AMIs that was attributable to socioeconomic inequalities in the Dutch population of 1997 to 2007 was 14 % in men and 18 % in women. Conclusions Neighbourhood socioeconomic inequalities were observed in AMI incidence in the Netherlands, but the magnitude across age-gender groups depended on whether inequality was expressed in relative or absolute terms. Relative socioeconomic inequalities were high in young persons and women, where the absolute burden of AMI was low. Absolute socioeconomic inequalities in AMI were highest in the age-gender groups of middle-aged men and elderly women, where the number of cases was largest. PMID:22870916

Hot spots of wheat yield decline with rising temperatures.

PubMed

Asseng, Senthold; Cammarano, Davide; Basso, Bruno; Chung, Uran; Alderman, Phillip D; Sonder, Kai; Reynolds, Matthew; Lobell, David B

2017-06-01

Many of the irrigated spring wheat regions in the world are also regions with high poverty. The impacts of temperature increase on wheat yield in regions of high poverty are uncertain. A grain yield-temperature response function combined with a quantification of model uncertainty was constructed using a multimodel ensemble from two key irrigated spring wheat areas (India and Sudan) and applied to all irrigated spring wheat regions in the world. Southern Indian and southern Pakistani wheat-growing regions with large yield reductions from increasing temperatures coincided with high poverty headcounts, indicating these areas as future food security 'hot spots'. The multimodel simulations produced a linear absolute decline of yields with increasing temperature, with uncertainty varying with reference temperature at a location. As a consequence of the linear absolute yield decline, the relative yield reductions are larger in low-yielding environments (e.g., high reference temperature areas in southern India, southern Pakistan and all Sudan wheat-growing regions) and farmers in these regions will be hit hardest by increasing temperatures. However, as absolute yield declines are about the same in low- and high-yielding regions, the contributed deficit to national production caused by increasing temperatures is higher in high-yielding environments (e.g., northern India) because these environments contribute more to national wheat production. Although Sudan could potentially grow more wheat if irrigation is available, grain yields would be low due to high reference temperatures, with future increases in temperature further limiting production. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

[Ophthalmopathy caused by precision work of sorters of precious stones].

PubMed

Feĭgin, A A; Korniushina, T A; Rozenblium, Iu Z

1992-01-01

A total of 440 female workers aged 17 to 50, whose work records ranged from 1 to 29 years, engaged in grading the diamonds by the color, shape, size, and quality (a total of 24 to 33 positions) were examined. A random sample of 110 subjects was singled out; this sample was divided into 2 equal groups with or without asthenopic complaints. The refraction, absolute accommodation volume, and relative accommodation reserves were under study. Comparison of these two groups of workers has shown that subjects with precision ophthalmopathy show a trend to a higher incidence of myopia, reduction of the absolute accommodation volume by 1.6 diopters and of the relative accommodation reserves by 1.3 diopters.

Angiotensin receptor blockers and risk of cancer: cohort study among people receiving antihypertensive drugs in UK General Practice Research Database.

PubMed

Bhaskaran, Krishnan; Douglas, Ian; Evans, Stephen; van Staa, Tjeerd; Smeeth, Liam

2012-04-24

To investigate whether there is an association between use of angiotensin receptor blockers and risk of cancer. Cohort study of risk of cancer in people treated with angiotensin receptor blockers compared with angiotensin converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors. Effects were explored with time updated covariates in Cox models adjusted for age, sex, body mass index (BMI), diabetes and metformin/insulin use, hypertension, heart failure, statin use, socioeconomic status, alcohol, smoking, and calendar year. Absolute changes in risk were predicted from a Poisson model incorporating the strongest determinants of risk from the main analysis. UK primary care practices contributing to the General Practice Research Database. 377,649 new users of angiotensin receptor blockers or ACE inhibitors with at least one year of initial treatment. Adjusted hazard ratios for all cancer and major site specific cancers (breast, lung, colon, prostate) by exposure to angiotensin receptor blockers and by cumulative duration of use. Follow-up ended a median of 4.6 years after the start of treatment; 20,203 cancers were observed. There was no evidence of any increase in overall risk of cancer among those ever exposed to angiotensin receptor blockers (adjusted hazard ratio 1.03, 95% confidence interval 0.99 to 1.06, P = 0.10). For specific cancers, there was some evidence of an increased risk of breast and prostate cancer (1.11, 1.01 to 1.21, P = 0.02; and 1.10, 1.00 to 1.20, P = 0.04; respectively), which in absolute terms corresponded to an estimated 0.5 and 1.1 extra cases, respectively, per 1000 person years of follow-up among those with the highest baseline risk. Longer duration of treatment did not seem to be associated with higher risk (P>0.15 in each case). There was a decreased risk of lung cancer (0.84, 0.75 to 0.94), but no effect on colon cancer (1.02, 0.91 to 1.16). Use of angiotensin receptor blockers was not associated with an increased risk of cancer overall. Observed increased risks for breast and prostate cancer were small in absolute terms, and the lack of association with duration of treatment meant that non-causal explanations could not be excluded.

Absolute fracture risk assessment using lumbar spine and femoral neck bone density measurements: derivation and validation of a hybrid system.

PubMed

Leslie, William D; Lix, Lisa M

2011-03-01

The World Health Organization (WHO) Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) computes 10-year probability of major osteoporotic fracture from multiple risk factors, including femoral neck (FN) T-scores. Lumbar spine (LS) measurements are not currently part of the FRAX formulation but are used widely in clinical practice, and this creates confusion when there is spine-hip discordance. Our objective was to develop a hybrid 10-year absolute fracture risk assessment system in which nonvertebral (NV) fracture risk was assessed from the FN and clinical vertebral (V) fracture risk was assessed from the LS. We identified 37,032 women age 45 years and older undergoing baseline FN and LS dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA; 1990-2005) from a population database that contains all clinical DXA results for the Province of Manitoba, Canada. Results were linked to longitudinal health service records for physician billings and hospitalizations to identify nontrauma vertebral and nonvertebral fracture codes after bone mineral density (BMD) testing. The population was randomly divided into equal-sized derivation and validation cohorts. Using the derivation cohort, three fracture risk prediction systems were created from Cox proportional hazards models (adjusted for age and multiple FRAX risk factors): FN to predict combined all fractures, FN to predict nonvertebral fractures, and LS to predict vertebral (without nonvertebral) fractures. The hybrid system was the sum of nonvertebral risk from the FN model and vertebral risk from the LS model. The FN and hybrid systems were both strongly predictive of overall fracture risk (p < .001). In the validation cohort, ROC analysis showed marginally better performance of the hybrid system versus the FN system for overall fracture prediction (p = .24) and significantly better performance for vertebral fracture prediction (p < .001). In a discordance subgroup with FN and LS T-score differences greater than 1 SD, there was a significant improvement in overall fracture prediction with the hybrid method (p = .025). Risk reclassification under the hybrid system showed better alignment with observed fracture risk, with 6.4% of the women reclassified to a different risk category. In conclusion, a hybrid 10-year absolute fracture risk assessment system based on combining FN and LS information is feasible. The improvement in fracture risk prediction is small but supports clinical interest in a system that integrates LS in fracture risk assessment. Copyright © 2011 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Constituent components of out-of-field scatter dose for 18-MV intensity modulated radiation therapy versus 3-dimensional conformal radiation therapy: a comparison with 6-MV and implications for carcinogenesis.

PubMed

Ruben, Jeremy D; Smith, Ryan; Lancaster, Craig M; Haynes, Matthew; Jones, Phillip; Panettieri, Vanessa

2014-11-01

To characterize and compare the components of out-of-field dose for 18-MV intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) versus 3-dimensional conformal radiation therapy (3D-CRT) and their 6-MV counterparts and consider implications for second cancer induction. Comparable plans for each technique/energy were delivered to a water phantom with a sloping wall; under full scatter conditions; with field edge abutting but outside the bath to prevent internal/phantom scatter; and with shielding below the linear accelerator head to attenuate head leakage. Neutron measurements were obtained from published studies. Eighteen-megavolt IMRT produces 1.7 times more out-of-field scatter than 18-MV 3D-CRT. In absolute terms, however, differences are just approximately 0.1% of central axis dose. Eighteen-megavolt IMRT reduces internal/patient scatter by 13%, but collimator scatter (C) is 2.6 times greater than 18-MV 3D-CRT. Head leakage (L) is minimal. Increased out-of-field photon scatter from 18-MV IMRT carries out-of-field second cancer risks of approximately 0.2% over and above the 0.4% from 18-MV 3D-CRT. Greater photoneutron dose from 18-MV IMRT may result in further maximal, absolute increased risk to peripheral tissue of approximately 1.2% over 18-MV 3D-CRT. Out-of-field photon scatter remains comparable for the same modality irrespective of beam energy. Machine scatter (C+L) from 18 versus 6 MV is 1.2 times higher for IMRT and 1.8 times for 3D-CRT. It is 4 times higher for 6-MV IMRT versus 3D-CRT. Reduction in internal scatter with 18 MV versus 6 MV is 27% for 3D-CRT and 29% for IMRT. Compared with 6-MV 3D-CRT, 18-MV IMRT increases out-of-field second cancer risk by 0.2% from photons and adds 0.28-2.2% from neutrons. Out-of-field photon dose seems to be independent of beam energy for both techniques. Eighteen-megavolt IMRT increases out-of-field scatter 1.7-fold over 3D-CRT because of greater collimator scatter despite reducing internal/patient scatter. Out-of-field carcinogenic risk is thus increased (but improved in-field dose conformity may offset this). Potentially increased carcinogenic risk should be weighed against any benefit 18-MV IMRT may provide. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Constituent Components of Out-of-Field Scatter Dose for 18-MV Intensity Modulated Radiation Therapy Versus 3-Dimensional Conformal Radiation Therapy: A Comparison With 6-MV and Implications for Carcinogenesis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ruben, Jeremy D., E-mail: jeremy.ruben@wbrc.org.au; Department of Surgery, Monash University, Melbourne; Smith, Ryan

Purpose: To characterize and compare the components of out-of-field dose for 18-MV intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) versus 3-dimensional conformal radiation therapy (3D-CRT) and their 6-MV counterparts and consider implications for second cancer induction. Methods and Materials: Comparable plans for each technique/energy were delivered to a water phantom with a sloping wall; under full scatter conditions; with field edge abutting but outside the bath to prevent internal/phantom scatter; and with shielding below the linear accelerator head to attenuate head leakage. Neutron measurements were obtained from published studies. Results: Eighteen-megavolt IMRT produces 1.7 times more out-of-field scatter than 18-MV 3D-CRT. Inmore » absolute terms, however, differences are just approximately 0.1% of central axis dose. Eighteen-megavolt IMRT reduces internal/patient scatter by 13%, but collimator scatter (C) is 2.6 times greater than 18-MV 3D-CRT. Head leakage (L) is minimal. Increased out-of-field photon scatter from 18-MV IMRT carries out-of-field second cancer risks of approximately 0.2% over and above the 0.4% from 18-MV 3D-CRT. Greater photoneutron dose from 18-MV IMRT may result in further maximal, absolute increased risk to peripheral tissue of approximately 1.2% over 18-MV 3D-CRT. Out-of-field photon scatter remains comparable for the same modality irrespective of beam energy. Machine scatter (C+L) from 18 versus 6 MV is 1.2 times higher for IMRT and 1.8 times for 3D-CRT. It is 4 times higher for 6-MV IMRT versus 3D-CRT. Reduction in internal scatter with 18 MV versus 6 MV is 27% for 3D-CRT and 29% for IMRT. Compared with 6-MV 3D-CRT, 18-MV IMRT increases out-of-field second cancer risk by 0.2% from photons and adds 0.28-2.2% from neutrons. Conclusions: Out-of-field photon dose seems to be independent of beam energy for both techniques. Eighteen-megavolt IMRT increases out-of-field scatter 1.7-fold over 3D-CRT because of greater collimator scatter despite reducing internal/patient scatter. Out-of-field carcinogenic risk is thus increased (but improved in-field dose conformity may offset this). Potentially increased carcinogenic risk should be weighed against any benefit 18-MV IMRT may provide.« less

Iron and zinc bioaccessibility of fermented maize, sorghum and millets from five locations in Zimbabwe.

PubMed

Gabaza, Molly; Shumoy, Habtu; Muchuweti, Maud; Vandamme, Peter; Raes, Katleen

2018-01-01

The present study is an evaluation of iron and zinc bioaccessibility of fermented maize, sorghum, pearl millet and finger millet from five different locations in Zimbabwe. Iron and zinc contents ranged between 3.22 and 49.7 and 1.25-4.39mg/100gdm, respectively. Fermentation caused a reduction of between 20 and 88% of phytic acid (PA) while a general increase in soluble phenolic compounds (PC) and a decrease of the bound (PC) was observed. Bioaccessibility of iron and zinc ranged between 2.77 and 26.1% and 0.45-12.8%, respectively. The contribution of the fermented cereals towards iron and zinc absolute requirements ranged between 25 and 411% and 0.5-23% with higher contribution of iron coming from cereals that were contaminated with extrinsic iron. Populations subsisting on cereals could be more at risk of zinc rather than iron deficiency. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Decreased levels of serum complement C3 and natural killer cells add to the predictive value of total immunoglobulin G for severe infection in heart transplant recipients.

PubMed

Sarmiento, E; del Pozo, N; Gallego, A; Fernández-Yañez, J; Palomo, J; Villa, A; Ruiz, M; Muñoz, P; Rodríguez, C; Rodríguez-Molina, J; Navarro, J; Kotsch, K; Fernandez-Cruz, E; Carbone, J

2012-10-01

Infection remains a source of mortality in heart recipients. We previously reported that post-transplant immunoglobulin G (IgG) quantification can help identify the risk for infection. We assessed whether other standardized parameters of humoral and cellular immunity could prove useful when identifying patients at risk of infection. We prospectively studied 133 heart recipients over a 12-month period. Forty-eight patients had at least one episode of severe infection. An event was defined as an infection requiring intravenous antimicrobial therapy. Cox regression analysis revealed an association between the risk of developing infection and the following: lower IgG2 subclass levels (day 7: relative hazard [RH] 1.71; day 30: RH 1.76), lower IgA levels (day 7: RH 1.61; day 30: RH 1.91), lower complement C3 values (day 7: RH 1.25), lower CD3 absolute counts (day 30: RH 1.10), lower absolute natural killer [NK] cell count (day 7: RH 1.24), and lower IgG concentrations (day 7: RH 1.31; day 30: RH 1.36). Cox regression bivariate analysis revealed that lower day 7 C3 levels, IgG2 concentration, and absolute NK cell count remained significant after adjustment for total IgG levels. Data suggest that early immune monitoring including C3, IgG2, and NK cell testing in addition to IgG concentrations is useful when attempting to identify the risk of infection in heart transplant recipients. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

Analysis of patterns and treatment strategies for mandibular condyle fractures: review of 175 condyle fractures with review of literature.

PubMed

Reddy, N Viveka V; Reddy, P Bhaskar; Rajan, Ritesh; Ganti, Srinivas; Jhawar, D K; Potturi, Abhinand; Pradeep

2013-09-01

This study aims to evaluate incidence, patterns and epidemiology of mandibular condylar fractures (MCF) to propose a treatment strategy for managing MCF and analyze the factors which influence the outcome. One hundred and seventy-five MCF's were evaluated over a four year period and their pattern was recorded in terms of displacement, level of fracture, age of incidence and dental occlusion. Of the 2,718 facial bone fractures, MCF incidence was the third most common at 18.39 %. Of 175 MCF 58.8 % were unilateral and 41.12 % were bilateral. 67 % of bilateral fractures and 43.8 % of unilateral fractures were associated with midline symphysis and contralateral parasymphysis fractures respectively. Most of the MCF was seen in the age group of above 16 years and 50 % of them were at subcondylar level (below the neck of the condyle). Majority of MCF sustained due to inter personal violence were undisplaced (72.7 %) and contrary to this majority of MCF sustained during road traffic accident were displaced. 62.9 % of total fractures required open reduction and rigid fixation and 37.1 % were managed with closed reduction. 80 % of MCF managed with closed reduction were in the age group of below 16 years. From this study it can be concluded that the treatment algorithm proposed for managing MCF is reliable and easy to adopt. We observed that absolute indication for open reduction of MCF is inability to achieve satisfactory occlusion by closed method and absolute contraindication for open reduction is condylar head fracture irrespective of the age of the patient.

Tumor Shrinkage Assessed by Volumetric MRI in Long-Term Follow-Up After Fractionated Stereotactic Radiotherapy of Nonfunctioning Pituitary Adenoma

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kopp, Christine, E-mail: Christine.Kopp@lrz.tu-muenchen.de; Theodorou, Marilena; Poullos, Nektarios

2012-03-01

Purpose: To evaluate tumor control and side effects associated with fractionated stereotactic radiotherapy (FSRT) in the management of residual or recurrent nonfunctioning pituitary adenomas (NFPAs). Methods and Materials: We assessed exact tumor volume shrinkage in 16 patients with NFPA after FSRT. All patients had previously undergone surgery. Gross tumor volume (GTV) was outlined on contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) before and median 63 months (range, 28-100 months) after FSRT. MRI was performed as an axial three-dimensional gradient echo T1-weighted sequence at 1.6-mm slice thickness without gap (3D MRI). Results: Mean tumor size of all 16 pituitary adenomas before treatment wasmore » 7.4 mL (3.3-18.9 mL). We found shrinkage of the treated pituitary adenoma in all patients. Within a median follow-up of 63 months (28-100 months) an absolute mean volume reduction of 3.8 mL (0.9-12.4 mL) was seen. The mean relative size reduction compared with the volume before radiotherapy was 51% (22%-95%). Shrinkage measured by 3D MRI was greater at longer time intervals after radiotherapy. A strong negative correlation between the initial tumor volume and the absolute volume reduction after FSRT was found. There was no correlation between tumor size reduction and patient age, sex, or number of previous surgeries. Conclusions: By using 3D MRI in all patients undergoing FSRT of an NFPA, tumor shrinkage is detected. Our data demonstrate that volumetric assessment based on 3D MRI adds additional information to routinely used radiological response measurements. After FSRT a mean relative size reduction of 51% can be expected within 5 years.« less

Phantom motor execution facilitated by machine learning and augmented reality as treatment for phantom limb pain: a single group, clinical trial in patients with chronic intractable phantom limb pain.

PubMed

Ortiz-Catalan, Max; Guðmundsdóttir, Rannveig A; Kristoffersen, Morten B; Zepeda-Echavarria, Alejandra; Caine-Winterberger, Kerstin; Kulbacka-Ortiz, Katarzyna; Widehammar, Cathrine; Eriksson, Karin; Stockselius, Anita; Ragnö, Christina; Pihlar, Zdenka; Burger, Helena; Hermansson, Liselotte

2016-12-10

Phantom limb pain is a debilitating condition for which no effective treatment has been found. We hypothesised that re-engagement of central and peripheral circuitry involved in motor execution could reduce phantom limb pain via competitive plasticity and reversal of cortical reorganisation. Patients with upper limb amputation and known chronic intractable phantom limb pain were recruited at three clinics in Sweden and one in Slovenia. Patients received 12 sessions of phantom motor execution using machine learning, augmented and virtual reality, and serious gaming. Changes in intensity, frequency, duration, quality, and intrusion of phantom limb pain were assessed by the use of the numeric rating scale, the pain rating index, the weighted pain distribution scale, and a study-specific frequency scale before each session and at follow-up interviews 1, 3, and 6 months after the last session. Changes in medication and prostheses were also monitored. Results are reported using descriptive statistics and analysed by non-parametric tests. The trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02281539. Between Sept 15, 2014, and April 10, 2015, 14 patients with intractable chronic phantom limb pain, for whom conventional treatments failed, were enrolled. After 12 sessions, patients showed statistically and clinically significant improvements in all metrics of phantom limb pain. Phantom limb pain decreased from pre-treatment to the last treatment session by 47% (SD 39; absolute mean change 1·0 [0·8]; p=0·001) for weighted pain distribution, 32% (38; absolute mean change 1·6 [1·8]; p=0·007) for the numeric rating scale, and 51% (33; absolute mean change 9·6 [8·1]; p=0·0001) for the pain rating index. The numeric rating scale score for intrusion of phantom limb pain in activities of daily living and sleep was reduced by 43% (SD 37; absolute mean change 2·4 [2·3]; p=0·004) and 61% (39; absolute mean change 2·3 [1·8]; p=0·001), respectively. Two of four patients who were on medication reduced their intake by 81% (absolute reduction 1300 mg, gabapentin) and 33% (absolute reduction 75 mg, pregabalin). Improvements remained 6 months after the last treatment. Our findings suggest potential value in motor execution of the phantom limb as a treatment for phantom limb pain. Promotion of phantom motor execution aided by machine learning, augmented and virtual reality, and gaming is a non-invasive, non-pharmacological, and engaging treatment with no identified side-effects at present. Promobilia Foundation, VINNOVA, Jimmy Dahlstens Fond, PicoSolve, and Innovationskontor Väst. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Calibration of the Reflected Solar Instrument for the Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thome, Kurtis; Barnes, Robert; Baize, Rosemary; O'Connell, Joseph; Hair, Jason

2010-01-01

The Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) plans to observe climate change trends over decadal time scales to determine the accuracy of climate projections. The project relies on spaceborne earth observations of SI-traceable variables sensitive to key decadal change parameters. The mission includes a reflected solar instrument retrieving at-sensor reflectance over the 320 to 2300 nm spectral range with 500-m spatial resolution and 100-km swath. Reflectance is obtained from the ratio of measurements of the earth s surface to those while viewing the sun relying on a calibration approach that retrieves reflectance with uncertainties less than 0.3%. The calibration is predicated on heritage hardware, reduction of sensor complexity, adherence to detector-based calibration standards, and an ability to simulate in the laboratory on-orbit sources in both size and brightness to provide the basis of a transfer to orbit of the laboratory calibration including a link to absolute solar irradiance measurements.

Anti-inflammatory and cytotoxic effects of methanol, ethanol, and water extracts of Angelicae Dahuricae Radix.

PubMed

Wang, Myeong-Hyeon; Jeong, Su-Hyeon; Guo, Huifang; Park, Jun-Beom

2016-01-01

Angelicae Dahuricae Radix has been used for the treatment of headaches, rhinitis, and colds in traditional medicine. Methanol, ethanol, and water extracts of Angelicae Dahuricae Radix were collected. A statistically significant reduction in the cellular viability of the mouse leukemic monocyte macrophage cell line was noted after treatment with water extracts of Angelicae Dahuricae Radix. Stimulation with lipopolysaccharides (LPS) for 24 h led to a robust increase in nitric oxide production, but Angelicae Dahuricae Radix at 400 μg/mL concentration significantly suppressed nitric oxide produced by the LPS-stimulated RAW 264.7 cells in 70% ethanol, absolute ethanol, 70% methanol, absolute methanol, and boiling water groups (P < 0.05). Pretreatment with absolute ethanol extract of Angelicae Dahuricae Radix suppressed the LPS-stimulated inducible nitric oxide synthase, interleukin-1β, and cycloxygenase-2 expression. Angelicae Dahuricae Radix showed significant cytotoxic effects on the human adenocarcinoma cell line and keratin-forming cell line. (J Oral Sci 58, 125-131, 2016).

Parents’ and students’ perceptions of college alcohol risk: The role of parental risk perception in intentions to communicate about alcohol

PubMed Central

Napper, Lucy E.; Grimaldi, Elizabeth M.; LaBrie, Joseph W.

2017-01-01

The current study aims to examine discrepancies in parents’ and college students’ perceptions of alcohol risk and the role of perceived risk in predicting parents’ intentions to discuss alcohol with their child. In total, 246 college student-parent dyads (56.1% female students, 77.2% mothers) were recruited from a mid-size university. Participants completed measures of absolute likelihood, comparative likelihood, and severity of alcohol consequences. In comparison to students, parents perceived the risks of alcohol poisoning (p < .001), academic impairment (p < .05), and problems with others (p < .05) to be more likely. In addition, parents rated the majority alcohol consequences (e.g., passing out, regrettable sexual situation, throwing up) as more severe than students (all ps < .001). However, parents tended to be more optimistic than their child about the comparative likelihood of alcohol consequences. After controlling for demographics and past alcohol communication, greater absolute likelihood (β = .20, p = .016) and less confidence in knowledge of student behavior (β = .20, p = .013) predicted greater intentions to discuss alcohol. Providing parents of college students with information about college drinking norms and the likelihood of alcohol consequences may help prompt alcohol-related communication. PMID:25437267

Cultural Effects on Cancer Prevention Behaviors: Fatalistic Cancer Beliefs and Risk Optimism Among Asians in Singapore.

PubMed

Kim, Hye Kyung; Lwin, May O

2017-10-01

Although culture is acknowledged as an important factor that influences health, little is known about cultural differences pertaining to cancer-related beliefs and prevention behaviors. This study examines two culturally influenced beliefs-fatalistic beliefs about cancer prevention, and optimistic beliefs about cancer risk-to identify reasons for cultural disparity in the engagement of cancer prevention behaviors. We utilized data from national surveys of European Americans in the United States (Health Information National Trends Survey 4, Cycle3; N = 1,139) and Asians in Singapore (N = 1,200) to make cultural comparisons. The odds of an Asian adhering to prevention recommendations were less than half the odds of a European American, with the exception of smoking avoidance. Compared to European Americans, Asians were more optimistic about their cancer risk both in an absolute and a comparative sense, and held stronger fatalistic beliefs about cancer prevention. Mediation analyses revealed that fatalistic beliefs and absolute risk optimism among Asians partially explain their lower engagement in prevention behaviors, whereas comparative risk optimism increases their likelihood of adhering to prevention behaviors. Our findings underscore the need for developing culturally targeted interventions in communicating cancer causes and prevention.

A new paradigm for primary prevention strategy in people with elevated risk of stroke.

PubMed

Feigin, Valery L; Norrving, Bo

2014-07-01

Existing methods of primary stroke prevention are not sufficiently effective. Based on the recently developed Stroke Riskometer app, a new 'mass-elevated risk stroke/cardiovascular disease prevention' approach as an addition to the currently adopted absolute risk stroke/cardiovascular disease prevention approach is being advocated. We believe this approach is far more appealing to the individuals concerned and could be as efficient as the conventional population-based approach because it allows identification and engagement in prevention of all individuals who are at an increased (even slightly increased) risk of stroke and cardiovascular disease. The key novelty of this approach is twofold. First, it utilizes modern far-reaching mobile technologies, allowing individuals to calculate their absolute risk of stroke within the next 5 to 10 years and to compare their risk with those of the same age and gender without risk factors. Second, it employs self-management strategies to engage the person concerned in stroke/cardiovascular disease prevention, which is tailored to the person's individual risk profile. Preventative strategies similar to the Stroke Riskometer could be developed for other non-communicable disorders for which reliable predictive models and preventative recommendations exist. This would help reduce the burden of non-communicable disorders worldwide. © 2014 The Authors. International Journal of Stroke published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of World Stroke Organization.

Evaluation of a commercial air filter for removal of viruses from the air.

PubMed

Roelants, P; Boon, B; Lhoest, W

1968-10-01

The effectiveness of a commercial absolute air filter for removal of viruses from air was tested with an actinophage, under the usual conditions of a laminar airflow clean room. A new method of dry phage dispersion is described. The filter showed an average reduction of 99.996% of airborne actinophage.

Efficacy and safety of deferasirox estimated by serum ferritin and labile plasma iron levels in patients with aplastic anemia, myelodysplastic syndrome, or acute myeloid leukemia with transfusional iron overload.

PubMed

Kim, Il-Hwan; Moon, Joon-Ho; Lim, Sung-Nam; Sohn, Sang-Kyun; Kim, Hoon-Gu; Lee, Gyeong-Won; Kim, Yang-Soo; Lee, Ho-Sup; Kwon, Ki-Young; Kim, Sung-Hyun; Park, Kyung-Tae; Chung, Joo-Seop; Lee, Won-Sik; Lee, Sang-Min; Hyun, Myung-Soo; Kim, Hawk; Ryoo, Hun-Mo; Bae, Sung-Hwa; Joo, Young-Don

2015-07-01

Patients receiving red blood cell (RBC) transfusions are at risk of iron overload, which can cause significant organ damage and is an important cause of morbidity and mortality. This study was an open-label, single-arm, prospective clinical study to evaluate the efficacy and safety of deferasirox (DFX) in patients with aplastic anemia (AA), myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS), or acute myeloid leukemia (AML). Patients with serum ferritin levels of at least 1000 ng/mL and ongoing transfusion requirements were enrolled. DFX was administered for up to 1 year. A total of 100 patients were enrolled. Serum ferritin levels decreased significantly following treatment (from 2000 to 1650 ng/mL, p = 0.004). The median absolute reduction in serum ferritin levels was -65 ng/mL in AA (p = 0.037), -647 ng/mL in lower-risk MDS (MDS-LR; p = 0.007), and -552 ng/mL in higher-risk MDS (MDS-HR)/AML (p = 0.482). Mean labile plasma iron (LPI) levels decreased from 0.24 μmol/L at baseline to 0.03 μmol/L at 1 year in all patients (p = 0.036). The mean LPI reduction in each group was -0.17 μmol/L in AA, -0.21 μmol/L in MDS-LR, and -0.30 μmol/L in MDS-HR/AML. Gastrointestinal disorders were commonly observed among groups (16.0%). DFX was temporarily skipped for adverse events in seven patients (7.0%) and was permanently discontinued in 11 patients (11.0%). DFX reduced serum ferritin and LPI levels in patients with transfusional iron overload. Despite the relatively high percentage of gastrointestinal side effects, DFX was tolerable in all subgroups. © 2015 AABB.

41 CFR 102-80.50 - Are Federal agencies responsible for identifying/estimating risks and for appropriate risk...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... identify and estimate safety and environmental management risks and appropriate risk reduction strategies... responsible for identifying/estimating risks and for appropriate risk reduction strategies? 102-80.50 Section... Environmental Management Risks and Risk Reduction Strategies § 102-80.50 Are Federal agencies responsible for...

Reduced Incidence of Invasive Breast Cancer With Raloxifene Among Women at Increased Coronary Risk

PubMed Central

Grady, Deborah; Cauley, Jane A.; Geiger, Mary Jane; Kornitzer, Marcel; Mosca, Lori; Collins, Peter; Wenger, Nanette K.; Song, Jingli; Mershon, John; Barrett-Connor, Elizabeth

2013-01-01

Background In the Raloxifene Use for The Heart trial, 10 101 postmenopausal women with coronary heart disease (CHD) or multiple CHD risk factors were randomly assigned to 60 mg/d raloxifene or to placebo and followed for a median of 5.6 years. Raloxifene, a selective estrogen receptor modulator, was found to reduce the risk of invasive breast cancer and vertebral fractures but not the risk of cardiovascular events. Here, we provide further details about breast cancer incidence by tumor characteristics, duration of treatment, and subgroup. Methods Reported breast cancer was adjudicated by an independent committee based on medical records and pathology reports. The primary analyses used Cox proportional hazards models with time to first breast cancer as the outcome. Subgroup effects were analyzed using similar models with terms for treatment by subgroup. All statistical tests were two-sided. Results As previously reported, raloxifene reduced the incidence of invasive breast cancer by 44% (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.56; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.38 to 0.83; absolute risk reduction = 1.2 invasive breast cancers per 1000 women treated for 1 year). The lower incidence of invasive breast cancer reflected a 55% lower incidence of invasive estrogen receptor (ER)–positive tumors (HR = 0.45; 95% CI = 0.28 to 0.72). However, raloxifene treatment did not reduce the incidence of noninvasive breast cancer or of invasive ER-negative breast cancer. The reduced incidence of invasive breast cancer was similar across subgroups, including those defined by age, body mass index, family history of breast cancer, prior use of postmenopausal hormones, and 5-year estimated risk of invasive breast cancer. Conclusion Raloxifene reduces risk of invasive ER-positive breast cancer regardless of a woman's baseline breast cancer risk but does not reduce risk of noninvasive or ER-negative breast cancers. These results confirm those of the Multiple Outcomes of Raloxifene Evaluation, a previous randomized trial among women with osteoporosis. PMID:18544744

Support of personalized medicine through risk-stratified treatment recommendations - an environmental scan of clinical practice guidelines

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Risk-stratified treatment recommendations facilitate treatment decision-making that balances patient-specific risks and preferences. It is unclear if and how such recommendations are developed in clinical practice guidelines (CPGs). Our aim was to assess if and how CPGs develop risk-stratified treatment recommendations for the prevention or treatment of common chronic diseases. Methods We searched the United States National Guideline Clearinghouse for US, Canadian and National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (United Kingdom) CPGs for heart disease, stroke, cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and diabetes that make risk-stratified treatment recommendations. We included only those CPGs that made risk-stratified treatment recommendations based on risk assessment tools. Two reviewers independently identified CPGs and extracted information on recommended risk assessment tools; type of evidence about treatment benefits and harms; methods for linking risk estimates to treatment evidence and for developing treatment thresholds; and consideration of patient preferences. Results We identified 20 CPGs that made risk-stratified treatment recommendations out of 133 CPGs that made any type of treatment recommendations for the chronic diseases considered in this study. Of the included 20 CPGs, 16 (80%) used evidence about treatment benefits from randomized controlled trials, meta-analyses or other guidelines, and the source of evidence was unclear in the remaining four (20%) CPGs. Nine CPGs (45%) used evidence on harms from randomized controlled trials or observational studies, while 11 CPGs (55%) did not clearly refer to harms. Nine CPGs (45%) explained how risk prediction and evidence about treatments effects were linked (for example, applying estimates of relative risk reductions to absolute risks), but only one CPG (5%) assessed benefit and harm quantitatively and three CPGs (15%) explicitly reported consideration of patient preferences. Conclusions Only a small proportion of CPGs for chronic diseases make risk-stratified treatment recommendations with a focus on heart disease and stroke prevention, diabetes and breast cancer. For most CPGs it is unclear how risk-stratified treatment recommendations were developed. As a consequence, it is uncertain if CPGs support patients and physicians in finding an acceptable benefit- harm balance that reflects both profile-specific outcome risks and preferences. PMID:23302096

Quantifying prognosis with risk predictions.

PubMed

Pace, Nathan L; Eberhart, Leopold H J; Kranke, Peter R

2012-01-01

Prognosis is a forecast, based on present observations in a patient, of their probable outcome from disease, surgery and so on. Research methods for the development of risk probabilities may not be familiar to some anaesthesiologists. We briefly describe methods for identifying risk factors and risk scores. A probability prediction rule assigns a risk probability to a patient for the occurrence of a specific event. Probability reflects the continuum between absolute certainty (Pi = 1) and certified impossibility (Pi = 0). Biomarkers and clinical covariates that modify risk are known as risk factors. The Pi as modified by risk factors can be estimated by identifying the risk factors and their weighting; these are usually obtained by stepwise logistic regression. The accuracy of probabilistic predictors can be separated into the concepts of 'overall performance', 'discrimination' and 'calibration'. Overall performance is the mathematical distance between predictions and outcomes. Discrimination is the ability of the predictor to rank order observations with different outcomes. Calibration is the correctness of prediction probabilities on an absolute scale. Statistical methods include the Brier score, coefficient of determination (Nagelkerke R2), C-statistic and regression calibration. External validation is the comparison of the actual outcomes to the predicted outcomes in a new and independent patient sample. External validation uses the statistical methods of overall performance, discrimination and calibration and is uniformly recommended before acceptance of the prediction model. Evidence from randomised controlled clinical trials should be obtained to show the effectiveness of risk scores for altering patient management and patient outcomes.

Drug use Discrimination Predicts Formation of High-Risk Social Networks: Examining Social Pathways of Discrimination.

PubMed

Crawford, Natalie D; Ford, Chandra; Rudolph, Abby; Kim, BoRin; Lewis, Crystal M

2017-09-01

Experiences of discrimination, or social marginalization and ostracism, may lead to the formation of social networks characterized by inequality. For example, those who experience discrimination may be more likely to develop drug use and sexual partnerships with others who are at increased risk for HIV compared to those without experiences of discrimination. This is critical as engaging in risk behaviors with others who are more likely to be HIV positive can increase one's risk of HIV. We used log-binomial regression models to examine the relationship between drug use, racial and incarceration discrimination with changes in the composition of one's risk network among 502 persons who use drugs. We examined both absolute and proportional changes with respect to sex partners, drug use partners, and injecting partners, after accounting for individual risk behaviors. At baseline, participants were predominately male (70%), black or Latino (91%), un-married (85%), and used crack (64%). Among those followed-up (67%), having experienced discrimination due to drug use was significantly related to increases in the absolute number of sex networks and drug networks over time. No types of discrimination were related to changes in the proportion of high-risk network members. Discrimination may increase one's risk of HIV acquisition by leading them to preferentially form risk relationships with higher-risk individuals, thereby perpetuating racial and ethnic inequities in HIV. Future social network studies and behavioral interventions should consider whether social discrimination plays a role in HIV transmission.

Clinical Predictive Models for Chemotherapy-Induced Febrile Neutropenia in Breast Cancer Patients: A Validation Study

PubMed Central

Zhu, Liling; Su, Fengxi; Jia, Weijuan; Deng, Xiaogeng

2014-01-01

Background Predictive models for febrile neutropenia (FN) would be informative for physicians in clinical decision making. This study aims to validate a predictive model (Jenkin’s model) that comprises pretreatment hematological parameters in early-stage breast cancer patients. Patients and Methods A total of 428 breast cancer patients who received neoadjuvant/adjuvant chemotherapy without any prophylactic use of colony-stimulating factor were included. Pretreatment absolute neutrophil counts (ANC) and absolute lymphocyte counts (ALC) were used by the Jenkin’s model to assess the risk of FN. In addition, we modified the threshold of Jenkin’s model and generated Model-A and B. We also developed Model-C by incorporating the absolute monocyte count (AMC) as a predictor into Model-A. The rates of FN in the 1st chemotherapy cycle were calculated. A valid model should be able to significantly identify high-risk subgroup of patients with FN rate >20%. Results Jenkin’s model (Predicted as high-risk when ANC≦3.1*10∧9/L;ALC≦1.5*10∧9/L) did not identify any subgroups with significantly high risk (>20%) of FN in our population, even if we used different thresholds in Model-A(ANC≦4.4*10∧9/L;ALC≦2.1*10∧9/L) or B(ANC≦3.8*10∧9/L;ALC≦1.8*10∧9/L). However, with AMC added as an additional predictor, Model-C(ANC≦4.4*10∧9/L;ALC≦2.1*10∧9/L; AMC≦0.28*10∧9/L) identified a subgroup of patients with a significantly high risk of FN (23.1%). Conclusions In our population, Jenkin’s model, cannot accurately identify patients with a significant risk of FN. The threshold should be changed and the AMC should be incorporated as a predictor, to have excellent predictive ability. PMID:24945817

[Antidepressants-SSRIs in pregnancy and risk of major malformations: treat or not to treat].

PubMed

Bellantuono, Cesario; Santone, Giovanni

2014-06-01

Considering teratogenic risk, recent data suggest that selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) can be prescribed during pregnancy, even though some SSRIs are to be considered as a second choice. In any case, antidepressive treatment during pregnancy must be carefully tailored to the pregnant woman, considering absolute risk/benefit ratio of SSRIs, but also availability of other effective treatments, as well as woman's preferences.

Selective Serotonin Reuptake Inhibitors and Violent Crime: A Cohort Study.

PubMed

Molero, Yasmina; Lichtenstein, Paul; Zetterqvist, Johan; Gumpert, Clara Hellner; Fazel, Seena

2015-09-01

Although selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) are widely prescribed, associations with violence are uncertain. From Swedish national registers we extracted information on 856,493 individuals who were prescribed SSRIs, and subsequent violent crimes during 2006 through 2009. We used stratified Cox regression analyses to compare the rate of violent crime while individuals were prescribed these medications with the rate in the same individuals while not receiving medication. Adjustments were made for other psychotropic medications. Information on all medications was extracted from the Swedish Prescribed Drug Register, with complete national data on all dispensed medications. Information on violent crime convictions was extracted from the Swedish national crime register. Using within-individual models, there was an overall association between SSRIs and violent crime convictions (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.19, 95% CI 1.08-1.32, p < 0.001, absolute risk = 1.0%). With age stratification, there was a significant association between SSRIs and violent crime convictions for individuals aged 15 to 24 y (HR = 1.43, 95% CI 1.19-1.73, p < 0.001, absolute risk = 3.0%). However, there were no significant associations in those aged 25-34 y (HR = 1.20, 95% CI 0.95-1.52, p = 0.125, absolute risk = 1.6%), in those aged 35-44 y (HR = 1.06, 95% CI 0.83-1.35, p = 0.666, absolute risk = 1.2%), or in those aged 45 y or older (HR = 1.07, 95% CI 0.84-1.35, p = 0.594, absolute risk = 0.3%). Associations in those aged 15 to 24 y were also found for violent crime arrests with preliminary investigations (HR = 1.28, 95% CI 1.16-1.41, p < 0.001), non-violent crime convictions (HR = 1.22, 95% CI 1.10-1.34, p < 0.001), non-violent crime arrests (HR = 1.13, 95% CI 1.07-1.20, p < 0.001), non-fatal injuries from accidents (HR = 1.29, 95% CI 1.22-1.36, p < 0.001), and emergency inpatient or outpatient treatment for alcohol intoxication or misuse (HR = 1.98, 95% CI 1.76-2.21, p < 0.001). With age and sex stratification, there was a significant association between SSRIs and violent crime convictions for males aged 15 to 24 y (HR = 1.40, 95% CI 1.13-1.73, p = 0.002) and females aged 15 to 24 y (HR = 1.75, 95% CI 1.08-2.84, p = 0.023). However, there were no significant associations in those aged 25 y or older. One important limitation is that we were unable to fully account for time-varying factors. The association between SSRIs and violent crime convictions and violent crime arrests varied by age group. The increased risk we found in young people needs validation in other studies.

Selective Serotonin Reuptake Inhibitors and Violent Crime: A Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Molero, Yasmina; Lichtenstein, Paul; Zetterqvist, Johan; Gumpert, Clara Hellner; Fazel, Seena

2015-01-01

Background Although selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) are widely prescribed, associations with violence are uncertain. Methods and Findings From Swedish national registers we extracted information on 856,493 individuals who were prescribed SSRIs, and subsequent violent crimes during 2006 through 2009. We used stratified Cox regression analyses to compare the rate of violent crime while individuals were prescribed these medications with the rate in the same individuals while not receiving medication. Adjustments were made for other psychotropic medications. Information on all medications was extracted from the Swedish Prescribed Drug Register, with complete national data on all dispensed medications. Information on violent crime convictions was extracted from the Swedish national crime register. Using within-individual models, there was an overall association between SSRIs and violent crime convictions (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.19, 95% CI 1.08–1.32, p < 0.001, absolute risk = 1.0%). With age stratification, there was a significant association between SSRIs and violent crime convictions for individuals aged 15 to 24 y (HR = 1.43, 95% CI 1.19–1.73, p < 0.001, absolute risk = 3.0%). However, there were no significant associations in those aged 25–34 y (HR = 1.20, 95% CI 0.95–1.52, p = 0.125, absolute risk = 1.6%), in those aged 35–44 y (HR = 1.06, 95% CI 0.83–1.35, p = 0.666, absolute risk = 1.2%), or in those aged 45 y or older (HR = 1.07, 95% CI 0.84–1.35, p = 0.594, absolute risk = 0.3%). Associations in those aged 15 to 24 y were also found for violent crime arrests with preliminary investigations (HR = 1.28, 95% CI 1.16–1.41, p < 0.001), non-violent crime convictions (HR = 1.22, 95% CI 1.10–1.34, p < 0.001), non-violent crime arrests (HR = 1.13, 95% CI 1.07–1.20, p < 0.001), non-fatal injuries from accidents (HR = 1.29, 95% CI 1.22–1.36, p < 0.001), and emergency inpatient or outpatient treatment for alcohol intoxication or misuse (HR = 1.98, 95% CI 1.76–2.21, p < 0.001). With age and sex stratification, there was a significant association between SSRIs and violent crime convictions for males aged 15 to 24 y (HR = 1.40, 95% CI 1.13–1.73, p = 0.002) and females aged 15 to 24 y (HR = 1.75, 95% CI 1.08–2.84, p = 0.023). However, there were no significant associations in those aged 25 y or older. One important limitation is that we were unable to fully account for time-varying factors. Conclusions The association between SSRIs and violent crime convictions and violent crime arrests varied by age group. The increased risk we found in young people needs validation in other studies. PMID:26372359

A Risk Assessment Comparison of Breast Cancer and Factors Affected to Risk Perception of Women in Turkey: A Cross-sectional Study

PubMed Central

YÜKSEL, Serpil; ALTUN UĞRAŞ, Gülay; ÇAVDAR, İkbal; BOZDOĞAN, Atilla; ÖZKAN GÜRDAL, Sibel; AKYOLCU, Neriman; ESENCAN, Ecem; VAROL SARAÇOĞLU, Gamze; ÖZMEN, Vahit

2017-01-01

Background: The increase in breast cancer incidence has enhanced attention towards breast cancer risk. The aim of this study was to determine the risk of breast cancer and risk perception of women, factors that affect risk perception, and to determine differences between absolute risk and the perception of risk. Methods: This cross-sectional study was carried out among 346 women whose score in the Gail Risk Model (GRM) was ≥ 1.67% and/or had a 1st degree relative with breast cancer in Bahçeşehir town in Istanbul, Turkey between Jul 2012 and Dec 2012. Data were collected through face-to-face interviews. The level of risk for breast cancer has been calculated using GRM and the Breast Cancer Risk Assessment Form (BCRAF). Breast cancer risk perception (BCRP), has been evaluated by visual analogue 100-cm-long scale. Results: Even though 39.6% of the women considered themselves as high-risk carriers, according to the GRM and the BCRAF, only 11.6% and 9.8% of women were in the “high risk” category, respectively. There was a positive significant correlation between the GRM and the BCRAF scores (P<0.001), and the BCRAF and BCRP scores (P<0.001). Factors related to high-risk perception were age (40–59 yr), post-menopausal phase, high-very high economic income level, existence of breast cancer in the family, having regular breast self-examination and clinical breast examination (P<0.05). Conclusion: In women with high risk of breast, cancer there is a significant difference between the women’s risk perception and their absolute risk level. PMID:28435816

The effects of maximising the UK's tobacco control score on inequalities in smoking prevalence and premature coronary heart disease mortality: a modelling study.

PubMed

Allen, Kirk; Kypridemos, Chris; Hyseni, Lirije; Gilmore, Anna B; Diggle, Peter; Whitehead, Margaret; Capewell, Simon; O'Flaherty, Martin

2016-04-01

Smoking is more than twice as common among the most disadvantaged socioeconomic groups in England compared to the most affluent and is a major contributor to health-related inequalities. The United Kingdom (UK) has comprehensive smoking policies in place: regular tax increases; public information campaigns; on-pack pictorial health warnings; advertising bans; cessation; and smoke-free areas. This is confirmed from its high Tobacco Control Scale (TCS) score, an expert-developed instrument for assessing the strength of tobacco control policies. However, room remains for improvement in tobacco control policies. Our aim was to evaluate the cumulative effect on smoking prevalence of improving all TCS components in England, stratified by socioeconomic circumstance. Effect sizes and socioeconomic gradients for all six types of smoking policy in the UK setting were adapted from systematic reviews, or if not available, from primary studies. We used the IMPACT Policy Model to link predicted changes in smoking prevalence to changes in premature coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality for ages 35-74. Health outcomes with a time horizon of 2025 were stratified by quintiles of socioeconomic circumstance. The model estimated that improving all smoking policies to achieve a maximum score on the TCS might reduce smoking prevalence in England by 3% (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1-4%), from 20 to 17% in absolute terms, or by 15% in relative terms (95% CI: 7-21%). The most deprived quintile would benefit more, with absolute reductions from 31 to 25%, or a 6% reduction (95% CI: 2-7%). There would be some 3300 (95% CI: 2200-4700) fewer premature CHD deaths between 2015-2025, a 2% (95% CI: 1.4-2.9%) reduction. The most disadvantaged quintile would benefit more, reducing absolute inequality of CHD mortality by about 4 % (95% CI: 3-9%). Further, feasible improvements in tobacco control policy could substantially improve population health, and reduce health-related inequalities in England.

Inferior vena cava filters in pulmonary embolism: A historic controversy.

PubMed

Jerjes-Sanchez, Carlos; Rodriguez, David; Navarrete, Aline; Parra-Cantu, Carolina; Joya-Harrison, Jorge; Vazquez, Eduardo; Ramirez-Rivera, Alicia

Rationale for non-routine use of inferior venous cava filters (IVCF) in pulmonary embolism (PE) patients. Thrombosis mechanisms involved with IVCF placement and removal, the blood-contacting medical device inducing clotting, and the inorganic polyphosphate in the contact activation pathway were analyzed. In addition, we analyzed clinical evidence from randomized trials, including patients with and without cancer. Furthermore, we estimated the absolute risk reduction (ARR), the relative risk reduction (RRR), and the number needed to treat (NNT) based on the results of each study using a frequency table. Finally, we analyzed the outcome of our PE patients that were submitted to thrombolysis with short and long term follow-up. IVCF induces thrombosis by several mechanisms including placement and removal, rapid protein adsorption, and simultaneous surface-induced activation via the contact activation pathway. Also, inorganic polyphosphate has an important role as a procoagulant, reversing the effect of anticoagulants. Randomized control trials included 904 cancer and non-cancer PE patients. In terms of ARR, RRR, and NNT, there is no evidence for routine use of IVCF. In 290 patients with proved PE, extensive thrombotic burden and right ventricular dysfunction under thrombolysis and oral anticoagulation, we observed a favorable outcome in a short- and long-term follow-up; additionally, IVCF was only used in 5% of these patients. Considering the complex mechanisms of thrombosis related with IVCF, the evidence from randomized control trials and ARR, RRR, and NNT obtained from venous thromboembolism patients with and without cancer, non-routine use of IVCF is recommended. Copyright © 2017 Instituto Nacional de Cardiología Ignacio Chávez. Publicado por Masson Doyma México S.A. All rights reserved.

A cross-sectional evidence-based review of pharmaceutical promotional marketing brochures and their underlying studies: Is what they tell us important and true?

PubMed Central

Cardarelli, Roberto; Licciardone, John C; Taylor, Lockwood G

2006-01-01

Background A major marketing technique used by pharmaceutical companies is direct-to-physician marketing. This form of marketing frequently employs promotional marketing brochures, based on clinical research, which may influence how a physician prescribes medicines. This study's objective was to investigate whether or not the information in promotional brochures presented to physicians by pharmaceutical representatives is accurate, consistent, and valid with respect to the actual studies upon which the promotional brochures are based. Methods Physicians in five clinics were asked to consecutively collect pharmaceutical promotional brochures and to send them all to a centralized location. The brochures for any class of medication were collected on a continuous basis until 20 distinct promotional brochures were received by a central location. Once the brochure was received, the corresponding original study was obtained. Two blinded reviewers performed an evidence-based review of the article, comparing data that was printed on the brochure to what was found in the original study. Results Among the 20 studies, 75% of the studies were found to be valid, 80% were funded by the pharmaceutical company, 60% of the studies and the corresponding brochures presented patient-oriented outcomes, and 40% were compared to another treatment regimen. Of the 19 brochures that presented the data as graphs, 4 brochures presented a relative risk reduction while only 1 brochure presented an absolute risk reduction. 15% of the promotional marketing brochures presented data that was different from what was in the original published study. Conclusion Given the present findings, physicians should be cautious about drawing conclusions regarding a medication based on the marketing brochures provided by pharmaceutical companies. PMID:16515686

A cross-sectional evidence-based review of pharmaceutical promotional marketing brochures and their underlying studies: is what they tell us important and true?

PubMed

Cardarelli, Roberto; Licciardone, John C; Taylor, Lockwood G

2006-03-03

A major marketing technique used by pharmaceutical companies is direct-to-physician marketing. This form of marketing frequently employs promotional marketing brochures, based on clinical research, which may influence how a physician prescribes medicines. This study's objective was to investigate whether or not the information in promotional brochures presented to physicians by pharmaceutical representatives is accurate, consistent, and valid with respect to the actual studies upon which the promotional brochures are based. Physicians in five clinics were asked to consecutively collect pharmaceutical promotional brochures and to send them all to a centralized location. The brochures for any class of medication were collected on a continuous basis until 20 distinct promotional brochures were received by a central location. Once the brochure was received, the corresponding original study was obtained. Two blinded reviewers performed an evidence-based review of the article, comparing data that was printed on the brochure to what was found in the original study. Among the 20 studies, 75% of the studies were found to be valid, 80% were funded by the pharmaceutical company, 60% of the studies and the corresponding brochures presented patient-oriented outcomes, and 40% were compared to another treatment regimen. Of the 19 brochures that presented the data as graphs, 4 brochures presented a relative risk reduction while only 1 brochure presented an absolute risk reduction. 15% of the promotional marketing brochures presented data that was different from what was in the original published study. Given the present findings, physicians should be cautious about drawing conclusions regarding a medication based on the marketing brochures provided by pharmaceutical companies.

Insurance, Public Assistance, and Household Flood Risk Reduction: A Comparative Study of Austria, England, and Romania.

PubMed

Hanger, Susanne; Linnerooth-Bayer, Joanne; Surminski, Swenja; Nenciu-Posner, Cristina; Lorant, Anna; Ionescu, Radu; Patt, Anthony

2018-04-01

In light of increasing losses from floods, many researchers and policymakers are looking for ways to encourage flood risk reduction among communities, business, and households. In this study, we investigate risk-reduction behavior at the household level in three European Union Member States with fundamentally different insurance and compensation schemes. We try to understand if and how insurance and public assistance influence private risk-reduction behavior. Data were collected using a telephone survey (n = 1,849) of household decisionmakers in flood-prone areas. We show that insurance overall is positively associated with private risk-reduction behavior. Warranties, premium discounts, and information provision with respect to risk reduction may be an explanation for this positive relationship in the case of structural measures. Public incentives for risk-reduction measures by means of financial and in-kind support, and particularly through the provision of information, are also associated with enhancing risk reduction. In this study, public compensation is not negatively associated with private risk-reduction behavior. This does not disprove such a relationship, but the negative effect may be mitigated by factors related to respondents' capacity to implement measures or social norms that were not included in the analysis. The data suggest that large-scale flood protection infrastructure creates a sense of security that is associated with a lower level of preparedness. Across the board there is ample room to improve both public and private policies to provide effective incentives for household-level risk reduction. © 2017 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

Effect of a pharmacist-managed hypertension program on health system costs: an evaluation of the Study of Cardiovascular Risk Intervention by Pharmacists-Hypertension (SCRIP-HTN).

PubMed

Houle, Sherilyn K D; Chuck, Anderson W; McAlister, Finlay A; Tsuyuki, Ross T

2012-06-01

To quantify the potential cost savings of a community pharmacy-based hypertension management program based on the results of the Study of Cardiovascular Risk Intervention by Pharmacists-Hypertension (SCRIP-HTN) study in terms of avoided cardiovascular events-myocardial infarction, stroke, and heart failure hospitalization, and to compare these cost savings with the cost of the pharmacist intervention program. An economic model was developed to estimate the potential cost avoidance in direct health care resources from reduced cardiovascular events over a 1-year period. The SCRIP-HTN study found that patients with diabetes mellitus and hypertension who were receiving the pharmacist intervention had a greater mean reduction in systolic blood pressure of 5.6 mm Hg than patients receiving usual care. For our model, published meta-analysis data were used to compute cardiovascular event absolute risk reductions associated with a 5.6-mm Hg reduction in systolic blood pressure over 6 months. Costs/event were obtained from administrative data, and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the robustness of the results. Two program scenarios were evaluated-one with monthly follow-up for a total of 1 year with sustained blood pressure reduction, and the other in which pharmacist care ended after the 6-month program but the effects on systolic blood pressure diminished over time. The cost saving results from the economic model were then compared with the costs of the program. Annual estimated cost savings (in 2011 Canadian dollars) from avoided cardiovascular events were $265/patient (95% confidence interval [CI] $63-467) if the program lasted 1 year or $221/patient (95%CI $72-371) if pharmacist care ceased after 6 months with an assumed loss of effect afterward. Estimated pharmacist costs were $90/patient for 6 months or $150/patient for 1 year, suggesting that pharmacist-managed programs are cost saving, with the annual net total cost savings/patient estimated to be $131 for a program lasting 6 months or $115 for a program lasting 1 year. Our model found that community pharmacist interventions capable of reducing systolic blood pressure by 5.6 mm Hg within 6 months are cost saving and result in improved patient outcomes. Wider adoption of pharmacist-managed hypertension care for patients with diabetes and hypertension is encouraged. © 2012 Pharmacotherapy Publications, Inc.

Acute deep vein thrombosis and endovascular techniques: It is time for a new aggiornamento!

PubMed

Pernès, J-M; Auguste, M; Kovarski, S; Borie, H; Renaudin, J-M; Coppe, G

2012-10-01

The stated aims of treating acute deep vein thrombosis (DVT) are to prevent a pulmonary embolism, stop the clot from spreading, reduce the risk of a recurrence; they are less concerned with the late morbidity associated with post-thrombotic syndrome (PTS). In accordance with the French (Afssaps, 2009) and North American (ACCP, 2008) recommendations, anticoagulants (LMWH, heparin, AVK) form the cornerstone for treating DVT. These treatments appear to be far less effective in preventing post-thrombotic syndrome (PTS), associated with venous hypertension, residual occlusion, and with reflux caused by valve incompetence. Given that, the new aim is to optimise the prevention of PTS, the ACCP guidelines, unlike those of Afssaps, "suggest" for selected patients suffering from acute iliofemoral DVT, the use of both classic anticoagulants, and in situ percutaneous administration of thrombolytic drugs (recommendation grade 2B) and simultaneous correction of any underlying anatomical anomalies using angioplasty and stenting (recommendation 2C). Contemporary endovascular methods, referred to collectively as "facilitated" thrombolysis, combine low doses of rtPa or Urokinase administered locally, and the removal of the clot using various mechanical, rotating, rheolytic systems, or using ultrasound. The results of non-randomised, heterogeneous studies objectivised a lysis rate of 80%, a 50% lower risk of haemorrhage complications compared with systemic thrombolysis (<4%), and a clear reduction in treatment time (one-shot methods possible for procedures lasting less than 2 hours). This data ties in with the modern "open vein" concept which underpins the hope of an improvement in the late prognosis of acute DVT, through the removal of a clot, thereby improving permeability and valve integrity; this hypothesis is supported by the results at 24 months of a randomised CaVent objectifying absolute risk reduction of 15% in the thrombolysis in situ. The current randomised study (ATTRACT trial) comparing the combination of "facilitated thrombolysis" in addition to the usual treatment with the traditional treatment alone for acute iliofemoral DVT, the statistical power of which has been established (600 patients) to authenticate a reduction by a third in the number of PTS (CaVent trial, showing a 15% reduction rate of 24 months PTS in the thrombolysed group results expected in 2016), might, if the results are positive, lead to a profound change in the paradigms for the treatment of acute iliofemoral DVT. Copyright © 2012 Éditions françaises de radiologie. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Decreased lymphocytes and increased risk for infection are common in endogenous pediatric Cushing syndrome.

PubMed

Tatsi, Christina; Boden, Rebecca; Sinaii, Ninet; Keil, Meg; Lyssikatos, Charalampos; Belyavskaya, Elena; Rosenzweig, Sergio D; Stratakis, Constantine A; Lodish, Maya B

2018-02-01

BackgroundHypercortisolemia results in changes of the immune system and elevated infection risk, but data on the WBC changes in pediatric Cushing syndrome (CS) are not known. We describe the changes of the WBC lineages in pediatric endogenous hypercortisolemia, their associations with the markers of disease severity, and the presence of infections.MethodsWe identified 197 children with endogenous CS. Clinical and biochemical data were recorded. Sixty-six children with similar age and gender, and normocortisolemia served as controls.ResultsThe absolute lymphocyte count of CS patients was significantly lower than that of controls, while the total WBC and the absolute neutrophil counts were significantly higher. These changes correlated with several markers of CS severity and improved after resolution of hypercortisolemia. Infections were identified in 35 patients (17.8%), and their presence correlated to elevated serum morning cortisol, midnight cortisol, and urinary free cortisol levels, as well as with the decrease in absolute lymphocyte count.ConclusionsChildren with endogenous CS have abnormal WBC counts, which correlate with the severity of CS, and normalize after cure. Infections are common in this population; clinicians should be aware of this complication of CS and have low threshold in diagnosis and treating infections in CS.

WITHDRAWN. Combined chemotherapy and radiotherapy (without surgery) compared with radiotherapy alone in localized carcinoma of the esophagus.

PubMed

Wong, Rebecca Ks; Malthaner, Richard

2010-01-20

Esophageal carcinoma can be managed primarily with either a surgical or non-surgical radiotherapeutic approach. Combination chemotherapy (CT) and radiotherapy (RT) has been incorporated into clinical practice and applied increasingly, especially in North America. To evaluate combined CT and RT (CTRT) versus RT alone in patients with localized esophageal carcinoma. Outcomes included overall survival, cause-specific survival, local recurrence, dysphagia relief, quality of life, acute and chronic toxicities. The Cochrane strategy for identifying randomized trials was combined with relevant MeSH headings. The Cochrane Library, MEDLINE, CancerLIT and EMBASE were last searched in April 2005. References from relevant articles and personal files were included. Randomized controlled trials in patients with localized esophageal cancer comparing RT alone with combined CTRT were included. Studies comparing non-chemotherapy agents such as pure radiotherapy sensitisers, immunostimulants, planned esophagectomy, were excluded. Two reviewers extracted data independently. Trial quality was assessed using the Jadad scale and Detsky checklist. Sensitivity analyses were planned to examine the effect of concomitant versus sequential treatment, study quality, radiotherapy dose, and whether the drug regimen contained cisplatin or 5-fluorouracil were performed. Nineteen randomized trials were included, with eleven concomitant and eight sequential RTCT studies. Concomitant RTCT provided significant reduction in mortality with a harms ratio (HR) of 0.73 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.64 to 0.84). Using an estimated mortality rate for the control group of 62% at year one and 83% at year two, the absolute survival benefit for RTCT was 9% (95% CI 5 to 12%) and 4% (95% CI 3 to 6%]) respectively. There was an absolute reduction of local recurrence rate of 12% (95% CI 3 to 22%), number needed to treat (NNT) of 9, when the local recurrence rate for the RT alone arm was 68%. This was associated with a significant risk of severe and life-threatening toxicities (number needed to harm (NNH)of 6). Sensitivity analyses did not identify any factors that interacted with the results. The results from sequential RTCT studies showed no significant benefit in survival or local control but significant toxicities. Based on the available data, when a non-operative approach is selected then concomitant RTCT is superior to RT alone for patients with localized esophageal cancer but with significant toxicities. In patients who are in good general condition, and the risk benefit has been thoroughly discussed with the patient, concomitant RTCT should be considered for the management of esophageal cancer compared with radiotherapy alone.