Science.gov

Sample records for absolute sea level

  1. Absolute Sea-level Changes Derived from Integrated Geodetic Datasets (1955-2016) in the Caribbean Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, L.; Wang, G.; Liu, H.

    2017-12-01

    Rising sea level has important direct impacts on coastal and island regions such as the Caribbean where the influence of sea-level rise is becoming more apparent. The Caribbean Sea is a semi-enclosed sea adjacent to the landmasses of South and Central America to the south and west, and the Greater Antilles and the Lesser Antilles separate it from the Atlantic Ocean to the north and east. The work focus on studying the relative and absolute sea-level changes by integrating tide gauge, GPS, and satellite altimetry datasets (1955-2016) within the Caribbean Sea. Further, the two main components of absolute sea-level change, ocean mass and steric sea-level changes, are respectively studied using GRACE, temperature, and salinity datasets (1955-2016). According to the analysis conducted, the sea-level change rates have considerable temporal and spatial variations, and estimates may be subject to the techniques used and observation periods. The average absolute sea-level rise rate is 1.8±0.3 mm/year for the period from 1955 to 2015 according to the integrated tide gauge and GPS observations; the average absolute sea-level rise rate is 3.5±0.6 mm/year for the period from 1993 to 2016 according to the satellite altimetry observations. This study shows that the absolute sea-level change budget in the Caribbean Sea is closed in the periods from 1955 to 2016, in which ocean mass change dominates the absolute sea-level rise. The absolute sea-level change budget is also closed in the periods from 2004 to 2016, in which steric sea-level rise dominates the absolute sea-level rise.

  2. Dynamically balanced absolute sea level of the global ocean derived from near-surface velocity observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Niiler, Pearn P.; Maximenko, Nikolai A.; McWilliams, James C.

    2003-11-01

    The 1992-2002 time-mean absolute sea level distribution of the global ocean is computed for the first time from observations of near-surface velocity. For this computation, we use the near-surface horizontal momentum balance. The velocity observed by drifters is used to compute the Coriolis force and the force due to acceleration of water parcels. The anomaly of horizontal pressure gradient is derived from satellite altimetry and corrects the temporal bias in drifter data distribution. NCEP reanalysis winds are used to compute the force due to Ekman currents. The mean sea level gradient force, which closes the momentum balance, is integrated for mean sea level. We find that our computation agrees, within uncertainties, with the sea level computed from the geostrophic, hydrostatic momentum balance using historical mean density, except in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. A consistent horizontally and vertically dynamically balanced, near-surface, global pressure field has now been derived from observations.

  3. Validation of Mean Absolute Sea Level of the North Atlantic obtained from Drifter, Altimetry and Wind Data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Maximenko, Nikolai A.

    2003-01-01

    Mean absolute sea level reflects the deviation of the Ocean surface from geoid due to the ocean currents and is an important characteristic of the dynamical state of the ocean. Values of its spatial variations (order of 1 m) are generally much smaller than deviations of the geoid shape from ellipsoid (order of 100 m) that makes the derivation of the absolute mean sea level a difficult task for gravity and satellite altimetry observations. Technique used by Niiler et al. for computation of the absolute mean sea level in the Kuroshio Extension was then developed into more general method and applied by Niiler et al. (2003b) to the global Ocean. The method is based on the consideration of balance of horizontal momentum.

  4. Comparing the role of absolute sea-level rise and vertical tectonic motions in coastal flooding, Torres Islands (Vanuatu)

    PubMed Central

    Ballu, Valérie; Bouin, Marie-Noëlle; Siméoni, Patricia; Crawford, Wayne C.; Calmant, Stephane; Boré, Jean-Michel; Kanas, Tony; Pelletier, Bernard

    2011-01-01

    Since the late 1990s, rising sea levels around the Torres Islands (north Vanuatu, southwest Pacific) have caused strong local and international concern. In 2002–2004, a village was displaced due to increasing sea incursions, and in 2005 a United Nations Environment Programme press release referred to the displaced village as perhaps the world’s first climate change “refugees.” We show here that vertical motions of the Torres Islands themselves dominate the apparent sea-level rise observed on the islands. From 1997 to 2009, the absolute sea level rose by 150 + /-20 mm. But GPS data reveal that the islands subsided by 117 + /-30 mm over the same time period, almost doubling the apparent gradual sea-level rise. Moreover, large earthquakes that occurred just before and after this period caused several hundreds of mm of sudden vertical motion, generating larger apparent sea-level changes than those observed during the entire intervening period. Our results show that vertical ground motions must be accounted for when evaluating sea-level change hazards in active tectonic regions. These data are needed to help communities and governments understand environmental changes and make the best decisions for their future. PMID:21795605

  5. Comparing the role of absolute sea-level rise and vertical tectonic motions in coastal flooding, Torres Islands (Vanuatu)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ballu, Valérie; Bouin, Marie-Noëlle; Siméoni, Patricia; Crawford, Wayne C.; Calmant, Stephane; Boré, Jean-Michel; Kanas, Tony; Pelletier, Bernard

    2011-08-01

    Since the late 1990s, rising sea levels around the Torres Islands (north Vanuatu, southwest Pacific) have caused strong local and international concern. In 2002-2004, a village was displaced due to increasing sea incursions, and in 2005 a United Nations Environment Programme press release referred to the displaced village as perhaps the world's first climate change "refugees." We show here that vertical motions of the Torres Islands themselves dominate the apparent sea-level rise observed on the islands. From 1997 to 2009, the absolute sea level rose by 150 + /-20 mm. But GPS data reveal that the islands subsided by 117 + /-30 mm over the same time period, almost doubling the apparent gradual sea-level rise. Moreover, large earthquakes that occurred just before and after this period caused several hundreds of mm of sudden vertical motion, generating larger apparent sea-level changes than those observed during the entire intervening period. Our results show that vertical ground motions must be accounted for when evaluating sea-level change hazards in active tectonic regions. These data are needed to help communities and governments understand environmental changes and make the best decisions for their future.

  6. Comparing the role of absolute sea-level rise and vertical tectonic motions in coastal flooding, Torres Islands (Vanuatu).

    PubMed

    Ballu, Valérie; Bouin, Marie-Noëlle; Siméoni, Patricia; Crawford, Wayne C; Calmant, Stephane; Boré, Jean-Michel; Kanas, Tony; Pelletier, Bernard

    2011-08-09

    Since the late 1990s, rising sea levels around the Torres Islands (north Vanuatu, southwest Pacific) have caused strong local and international concern. In 2002-2004, a village was displaced due to increasing sea incursions, and in 2005 a United Nations Environment Programme press release referred to the displaced village as perhaps the world's first climate change "refugees." We show here that vertical motions of the Torres Islands themselves dominate the apparent sea-level rise observed on the islands. From 1997 to 2009, the absolute sea level rose by 150 + /-20 mm. But GPS data reveal that the islands subsided by 117 + /-30 mm over the same time period, almost doubling the apparent gradual sea-level rise. Moreover, large earthquakes that occurred just before and after this period caused several hundreds of mm of sudden vertical motion, generating larger apparent sea-level changes than those observed during the entire intervening period. Our results show that vertical ground motions must be accounted for when evaluating sea-level change hazards in active tectonic regions. These data are needed to help communities and governments understand environmental changes and make the best decisions for their future.

  7. Absolute Sea Level Monitoring and Altimeter Calibration At Gavdos, Crete, Greece

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pavlis, E. C.; Gavdos Team

    We present the mean sea level (MSL) monitoring aspect of the altimeter calibration fa- cility under deployment on western Crete and the isle of Gavdos. The Eastern Mediter- ranean area is one of great interest for its intense tectonic activity as well as for its regional oceanography. Recent observations have convincingly demonstrated the im- portance of that area for the regional meteorological and climatological changes. Tide- gauge monitoring with GPS has gained importance lately since tectonics contaminate the inferred sea level variations, and a global network of tide-gauges with long his- torical records can be used as satellite altimeter calibration sites for current and fu- ture missions (e.g. TOPEX/POSEIDON, GFO, JASON-1, ENVISAT, etc.). This is at present a common IOC-GLOSS-IGS effort, already underway (TIGA). Crete hosts two of the oldest tide-gauges in the regional network and our project will further ex- pand it to the south of the island with a new site on the isle of Gavdos, the southernmost European parcel of land. One component of our "GAVDOS" project is the repeated occupation of two already in existence tide-gauge sites at Souda Bay and Heraklion, and their tie to the new facility. We show here initial results from positioning of these sites and some of the available tidal records. Gavdos is situated under a ground-track crossing point of the present T/P and JASON-1 orbits. It is an ideal calibration site if the tectonic motions are monitored precisely and continuously. Our plans include the deployment of additional instrumentation at this site: GPS and DORIS beacons for positioning, transponders for direct calibration, water vapor radiometers, GPS-loaded buoys, airborne surveys with gravimeters and laser profiling lidars, etc., to ensure the best possible and most reliable results.

  8. Absolute Sea-level Monitoring and Altimeter Calibration Facility at Gavdos, Crete, Greece

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pavlis, E. C.

    2002-12-01

    We introduce the recently instrumented mean sea level (MSL) monitoring facility on western Crete and the isle of Gavdos. We will focus on the altimeter calibration aspect of the facility, in particular, its application to the JASON mission. The Eastern Mediterranean area is one of great interest for its intense tectonic activity as well as for its regional oceanography. Recent observations have convincingly demonstrated the importance of that area for the regional meteorological and climatologic changes. Tide-gauge monitoring with continuous GPS has gained importance lately since tectonics contaminate the inferred sea level variations, and a global network of tide-gauges with long historical records can be used as satellite altimeter calibration sites (e.g. TOPEX/POSEIDON, GFO, JASON-1, ENVISAT, etc.). This is at present a common IOC-GLOSS-IGS effort, already underway (TIGA), and our facility is part of it. Crete hosts two of the oldest tide-gauges in the regional network and our project will further expand it to the south with a new site on the isle of Gavdos, the southernmost European parcel of land. One component of our "GAVDOS" project is the repeated occupation of two already in existence tide-gauge sites at Souda Bay and Heraklion, and their tie to the new facility. We show here initial results from positioning of these sites and some of the available tidal records. Gavdos is situated under a ground-track crossing point of the original T/P and present JASON-1 orbits. It is an ideal calibration site if the tectonic motions are monitored precisely and continuously. The facility hosts in addition to the tide gauges: GPS and DORIS beacons for positioning, transponders for direct calibration, water vapor radiometers and solar spectrometers, GPS-loaded buoys, airborne surveys with gravimeters and laser profiling lidars, transportable laser ranging systems, etc., to ensure the best possible and most reliable results.

  9. Regional biases in absolute sea-level estimates from tide gauge data due to residual unmodeled vertical land movement

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    King, Matt A.; Keshin, Maxim; Whitehouse, Pippa L.; Thomas, Ian D.; Milne, Glenn; Riva, Riccardo E. M.

    2012-07-01

    The only vertical land movement signal routinely corrected for when estimating absolute sea-level change from tide gauge data is that due to glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). We compare modeled GIA uplift (ICE-5G + VM2) with vertical land movement at ˜300 GPS stations located near to a global set of tide gauges, and find regionally coherent differences of commonly ±0.5-2 mm/yr. Reference frame differences and signal due to present-day mass trends cannot reconcile these differences. We examine sensitivity to the GIA Earth model by fitting to a subset of the GPS velocities and find substantial regional sensitivity, but no single Earth model is able to reduce the disagreement in all regions. We suggest errors in ice history and neglected lateral Earth structure dominate model-data differences, and urge caution in the use of modeled GIA uplift alone when interpreting regional- and global- scale absolute (geocentric) sea level from tide gauge data.

  10. Using continuous GPS and absolute gravity to separate vertical land movements and changes in sea-level at tide-gauges in the UK.

    PubMed

    Teferle, F N; Bingley, R M; Williams, S D P; Baker, T F; Dodson, A H

    2006-04-15

    Researchers investigating climate change have used historical tide-gauge measurements from all over the world to investigate the changes in sea-level that have occurred over the last century or so. However, such estimates are a combination of any true sea-level variations and any vertical movements of the land at the specific tide-gauge. For a tide- gauge record to be used to determine the climate related component of changes in sea-level, it is therefore necessary to correct for the vertical land movement component of the observed change in sea-level.In 1990, the Institute of Engineering Surveying and Space Geodesy and Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory started developing techniques based on the Global Positioning System (GPS) for measuring vertical land movements (VLM) at tide-gauges in the UK. This paper provides brief details of these early developments and shows how they led to the establishment of continuous GPS (CGPS) stations at a number of tide-gauges. The paper then goes on to discuss the use of absolute gravity (AG), as an independent technique for measuring VLM at tide-gauges. The most recent results, from CGPS time-series dating back to 1997 and AG time-series dating back to 1995/1996, are then used to demonstrate the complementarity of these two techniques and their potential for providing site-specific estimates of VLM at tide-gauges in the UK.

  11. Absolute spectrum and charge ratio of cosmic ray muons in the energy region from 0.2 GeV to 100 GeV at 600 m above sea level

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    De Pascale, M. P.; Morselli, A.; Picozza, P.; Golden, R. L.; Grimani, C.; Kimbell, B. L.; Stephens, S. A.; Stochaj, S. J.; Webber, W. R.; Basini, G.

    1993-01-01

    We have determined the momentum spectrum and charge ratio of muons in the region from 250 MeV/c to 100 GeV/c using a superconducting magnetic spectrometer. The absolute differential spectrum of muons obtained in this experiment at 600 m above sea level is in good agreement with the previous measurements at sea level. The differential spectrum can be represented by a power law with a varying index, which is consistent with zero below 450 MeV/c and steepens to a value of -2.7 +/- 0.1 between 20 and 100 GeV/c. The integral f1ux of muons measured in this experiment span a very large range of momentum and is in excellent agreement with the earlier results. The positive to negative muon ratio appears to be constant in the entire momentum range covered in this experiment within the errors and the mean value is 1.220 +/- 0.044. The absolute momentum spectrum and the charge ratio measured in this experiment are also consistent with the theoretical expectations. This is the only experiment which covers a wide range of nearly three decades in momentum from a very low momentum.

  12. Contemporary Arctic Sea Level

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cazenave, A. A.

    2017-12-01

    During recent decades, the Arctic region has warmed at a rate about twice the rest of the globe. Sea ice melting is increasing and the Greenland ice sheet is losing mass at an accelerated rate. Arctic warming, decrease in the sea ice cover and fresh water input to the Arctic ocean may eventually impact the Arctic sea level. In this presentation, we review our current knowledge of contemporary Arctic sea level changes. Until the beginning of the 1990s, Arctic sea level variations were essentially deduced from tide gauges located along the Russian and Norwegian coastlines. Since then, high inclination satellite altimetry missions have allowed measuring sea level over a large portion of the Arctic Ocean (up to 80 degree north). Measuring sea level in the Arctic by satellite altimetry is challenging because the presence of sea ice cover limits the full capacity of this technique. However adapted processing of raw altimetric measurements significantly increases the number of valid data, hence the data coverage, from which regional sea level variations can be extracted. Over the altimetry era, positive trend patterns are observed over the Beaufort Gyre and along the east coast of Greenland, while negative trends are reported along the Siberian shelf. On average over the Arctic region covered by satellite altimetry, the rate of sea level rise since 1992 is slightly less than the global mea sea level rate (of about 3 mm per year). On the other hand, the interannual variability is quite significant. Space gravimetry data from the GRACE mission and ocean reanalyses provide information on the mass and steric contributions to sea level, hence on the sea level budget. Budget studies show that regional sea level trends over the Beaufort Gyre and along the eastern coast of Greenland, are essentially due to salinity changes. However, in terms of regional average, the net steric component contributes little to the observed sea level trend. The sea level budget in the Arctic

  13. Sea level variation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Douglas, Bruce C.

    1992-01-01

    Published values for the long-term, global mean sea level rise determined from tide gauge records range from about one to three mm per year. The scatter of the estimates appears to arise largely from the use of data from gauges located at convergent tectonic plate boundaries where changes of land elevation give fictitious sea level trends, and the effects of large interdecadal and longer sea level variations on short (less than 50+ years) or sappy records. In addition, virtually all gauges undergo subsidence or uplift due to isostatic rebound from the last deglaciation at a rate comparable to or greater than the secular rise of sea level. Modeling rebound by the ICE-3G model of Tushingham and Peltier (1990) and avoiding tide gauge records in areas of converging tectonic plates produces a highly consistent set of long sea level records. A global set of 21 such stations in nine oceanic regions with an average record length of 76 years during the period 1880-1980 yields the global sea level rise value 1.8 mm/year +/- 0.1. Greenhouse warming scenarios commonly forecast an additional acceleration of global sea level in the next 5 or 6+ decades in the range 0.1-0.2 mm/yr2. Because of the large power at low frequencies in the sea level spectrum, very long tide gauge records (75 years minimum) have been examined for past apparent sea level acceleration. For the 80-year period 1905-1985, 23 essentially complete tide gauge records in 10 geographic groups are available for analysis. These yielded the apparent global acceleration -0.011 (+/- 0.012) mm/yr2. A larger, less uniform set of 37 records in the same 10 groups with 92 years average length covering the 141 years from 1850-1991 gave 0.001 (+/- 0.008) mm/yr2. Thus there is no evidence for an apparent acceleration in the past 100+ years that is significant either statistically, or in comparison to values associated with global warming. Unfortunately, the large interdecadal fluctuations of sea level severely affect

  14. Contemporary sea level rise.

    PubMed

    Cazenave, Anny; Llovel, William

    2010-01-01

    Measuring sea level change and understanding its causes has considerably improved in the recent years, essentially because new in situ and remote sensing observations have become available. Here we report on most recent results on contemporary sea level rise. We first present sea level observations from tide gauges over the twentieth century and from satellite altimetry since the early 1990s. We next discuss the most recent progress made in quantifying the processes causing sea level change on timescales ranging from years to decades, i.e., thermal expansion of the oceans, land ice mass loss, and land water-storage change. We show that for the 1993-2007 time span, the sum of climate-related contributions (2.85 +/- 0.35 mm year(-1)) is only slightly less than altimetry-based sea level rise (3.3 +/- 0.4 mm year(-1)): approximately 30% of the observed rate of rise is due to ocean thermal expansion and approximately 55% results from land ice melt. Recent acceleration in glacier melting and ice mass loss from the ice sheets increases the latter contribution up to 80% for the past five years. We also review the main causes of regional variability in sea level trends: The dominant contribution results from nonuniform changes in ocean thermal expansion.

  15. Airborne Sea-Surface Topography in an Absolute Reference Frame

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brozena, J. M.; Childers, V. A.; Jacobs, G.; Blaha, J.

    2003-12-01

    Highly dynamic coastal ocean processes occur at temporal and spatial scales that cannot be captured by the present generation of satellite altimeters. Space-borne gravity missions such as GRACE also provide time-varying gravity and a geoidal msl reference surface at resolution that is too coarse for many coastal applications. The Naval Research Laboratory and the Naval Oceanographic Office have been testing the application of airborne measurement techniques, gravity and altimetry, to determine sea-surface height and height anomaly at the short scales required for littoral regions. We have developed a precise local gravimetric geoid over a test region in the northern Gulf of Mexico from historical gravity data and recent airborne gravity surveys. The local geoid provides a msl reference surface with a resolution of about 10-15 km and provides a means to connect airborne, satellite and tide-gage observations in an absolute (WGS-84) framework. A series of altimetry reflights over the region with time scales of 1 day to 1 year reveal a highly dynamic environment with coherent and rapidly varying sea-surface height anomalies. AXBT data collected at the same time show apparent correlation with wave-like temperature anomalies propagating up the continental slope of the Desoto Canyon. We present animations of the temporal evolution of the surface topography and water column temperature structure down to the 800 m depth of the AXBT sensors.

  16. Projecting future sea level

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cayan, Daniel R.; Bromirski, Peter; Hayhoe, Katharine; Tyree, Mary; Dettinger, Mike; Flick, Reinhard

    2006-01-01

    California’s coastal observations and global model projections indicate that California’s open coast and estuaries will experience increasing sea levels over the next century. Sea level rise has affected much of the coast of California, including the Southern California coast, the Central California open coast, and the San Francisco Bay and upper estuary. These trends, quantified from a small set of California tide gages, have ranged from 10–20 centimeters (cm) (3.9–7.9 inches) per century, quite similar to that estimated for global mean sea level. So far, there is little evidence that the rate of rise has accelerated, and the rate of rise at California tide gages has actually flattened since 1980, but projections suggest substantial sea level rise may occur over the next century. Climate change simulations project a substantial rate of global sea level rise over the next century due to thermal expansion as the oceans warm and runoff from melting land-based snow and ice accelerates. Sea level rise projected from the models increases with the amount of warming. Relative to sea levels in 2000, by the 2070–2099 period, sea level rise projections range from 11–54 cm (4.3–21 in) for simulations following the lower (B1) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenario, from 14–61 cm (5.5–24 in) for the middle-upper (A2) emission scenario, and from 17–72 cm (6.7–28 in) for the highest (A1fi) scenario. In addition to relatively steady secular trends, sea levels along the California coast undergo shorter period variability above or below predicted tide levels and changes associated with long-term trends. These variations are caused by weather events and by seasonal to decadal climate fluctuations over the Pacific Ocean that in turn affect the Pacific coast. Highest coastal sea levels have occurred when winter storms and Pacific climate disturbances, such as El Niño, have coincided with high astronomical tides. This study considers a range of projected future

  17. Caribbean Sea Level Network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    von Hillebrandt-Andrade, C.; Crespo Jones, H.

    2012-12-01

    Over the past 500 years almost 100 tsunamis have been observed in the Caribbean and Western Atlantic, with at least 3510 people having lost their lives to this hazard since 1842. Furthermore, with the dramatic increase in population and infrastructure along the Caribbean coasts, today, millions of coastal residents, workers and visitors are vulnerable to tsunamis. The UNESCO IOC Intergovernmental Coordination Group for Tsunamis and other Coastal Hazards for the Caribbean and Adjacent Regions (CARIBE EWS) was established in 2005 to coordinate and advance the regional tsunami warning system. The CARIBE EWS focuses on four areas/working groups: (1) Monitoring and Warning, (2) Hazard and Risk Assessment, (3) Communication and (4) Education, Preparedness and Readiness. The sea level monitoring component is under Working Group 1. Although in the current system, it's the seismic data and information that generate the initial tsunami bulletins, it is the data from deep ocean buoys (DARTS) and the coastal sea level gauges that are critical for the actual detection and forecasting of tsunamis impact. Despite multiple efforts and investments in the installation of sea level stations in the region, in 2004 there were only a handful of sea level stations operational in the region (Puerto Rico, US Virgin Islands, Bermuda, Bahamas). Over the past 5 years there has been a steady increase in the number of stations operating in the Caribbean region. As of mid 2012 there were 7 DARTS and 37 coastal gauges with additional ones being installed or funded. In order to reach the goal of 100 operational coastal sea level stations in the Caribbean, the CARIBE EWS recognizes also the importance of maintaining the current stations. For this, a trained workforce in the region for the installation, operation and data analysis and quality control is considered to be critical. Since 2008, three training courses have been offered to the sea level station operators and data analysts. Other

  18. Understanding Sea Level Changes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chao, Benjamin F.

    2004-01-01

    Today more than 100 million people worldwide live on coastlines within one meter of mean sea level; any short-term or long-term sea level change relative to vertical ground motion is of great societal and economic concern. As palm-environment and historical data have clearly indicated the existence and prevalence of such changes in the past, new scientific information regarding to the nature and causes and a prediction capability are of utmost importance for the future. The 10-20 cm global sea-level rise recorded over the last century has been broadly attributed to two effects: (1) the steric effect (thermal expansion and salinity-density compensation of sea water) following global climate; (2) mass-budget changes due to a number of competing geophysical and hydrological processes in the Earth-atmosphere-hydrosphere-cryosphere system, including water exchange from polar ice sheets and mountain glaciers to the ocean, atmospheric water vapor and land hydrological variations, and anthropogenic effects such as water impoundment in artificial reservoirs and extraction of groundwater, all superimposed on the vertical motions of solid Earth due to tectonics, rebound of the mantle from past and present deglaciation, and other local ground motions. As remote-sensing tools, a number of space geodetic measurements of sea surface topography (e.g., TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason), ice mass (e.g., ICESat), time-variable gravity (e.g. GRACE), and ground motions (SLR, VLBI, GPS, InSAR, Laser altimetry, etc.) become directly relevant. Understanding sea level changes "anywhere, anytime" in a well-defined terrestrial reference frame in terms of climate change and interactions among ice masses, oceans, and the solid Earth, and being able to predict them, emerge as one of the scientific challenges in the Solid Earth Science Working Group (SESWG, 2003) conclusions.

  19. Changing Sea Levels

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pugh, David

    2004-04-01

    Flooding of coastal communities is one of the major causes of environmental disasters world-wide. This textbook explains how sea levels are affected by astronomical tides, weather effects, ocean circulation and climate trends. Based on courses taught by the author in the U.K. and the U.S., it is aimed at undergraduate students at all levels, with non-basic mathematics being confined to Appendices and a website http://publishing.cambridge.org/resources/0521532183/.

  20. USACE Extreme Sea levels

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-03-14

    with expected changes due to climate change. (tropicals and extra-tropicals) Ivan provided some good information on work being done on tropical...Pattiaratchi, C., Jensen, J., 2013. Estimating extreme water level probabilities: a comparison of the direct methods and recommendations for best practise ...sites: site-by-site analyses. Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory , Internal Document, No. 65, 229pp. Dixon, M.J., Tawn, J.A. (1995) Extreme sea-levels

  1. Two Sea-Level Challenges

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Galvin, C.

    2008-12-01

    "No place on the sandy ocean shores of the world has been shown to be eroding because of sea level rise." This statement appeared nearly 19 years ago in bold print at the top of the page in a brief article published in Shore and Beach (Galvin,1990). The term "sea level rise" was defined in 1990 as follows: "In this statement, "sea level rise" has the meaning that the average person on the street usually attaches to that term. That is, sea level is rising; not, as in some places like the Mississippi River delta, land level is sinking." While still a subject of controversy, it is now (2008) increasingly plausible (Tornqvist et al,2008) that damage from Hurricane Katrina was significantly worse on the Mississippi River delta because floodwaters exploited wetlands and levees whose elevations had been lowered by decades of compaction in the underlying soil. (1) "Sea level" commonly appears in the literature as "relative sea level rise", occurring that way in 711 publications between 1980 and 2009 (GeoRef database on 8 Sep 08). "Relative sea level rise" does not appear in the 2005 AGI Glossary. The nearest Glossary term is "relative change in sea level", but that term occurs in only 12 publications between 1980 and 2009. The Glossary defines this term in a sequence stratigraphy sense, which infers that "relative sea level rise" is the sum of bottom subsidence and eustatic sea level rise. In plain English, "relative sea level rise" means "water depth increase". For present day coastal environments, "relative sea level rise" is commonly used where eustatic sea level rise is less than subsidence, that is, where the magnitude of actual sea level rise is smaller than the magnitude of subsidence. In that situation, "relative sea level rise" misleads both the average person and the scientist who is not a coastal geologist. Thus, the first challenge is to abandon "relative sea level rise" in favor of "water depth increase", in order that the words accurately descibe what happens

  2. Sea Level Rise Data Discovery

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Quach, N.; Huang, T.; Boening, C.; Gill, K. M.

    2016-12-01

    Research related to sea level rise crosses multiple disciplines from sea ice to land hydrology. The NASA Sea Level Change Portal (SLCP) is a one-stop source for current sea level change information and data, including interactive tools for accessing and viewing regional data, a virtual dashboard of sea level indicators, and ongoing updates through a suite of editorial products that include content articles, graphics, videos, and animations. The architecture behind the SLCP makes it possible to integrate web content and data relevant to sea level change that are archived across various data centers as well as new data generated by sea level change principal investigators. The Extensible Data Gateway Environment (EDGE) is incorporated into the SLCP architecture to provide a unified platform for web content and science data discovery. EDGE is a data integration platform designed to facilitate high-performance geospatial data discovery and access with the ability to support multi-metadata standard specifications. EDGE has the capability to retrieve data from one or more sources and package the resulting sets into a single response to the requestor. With this unified endpoint, the Data Analysis Tool that is available on the SLCP can retrieve dataset and granule level metadata as well as perform geospatial search on the data. This talk focuses on the architecture that makes it possible to seamlessly integrate and enable discovery of disparate data relevant to sea level rise.

  3. Intermittent sea-level acceleration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Olivieri, M.; Spada, G.

    2013-10-01

    Using instrumental observations from the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL), we provide a new assessment of the global sea-level acceleration for the last ~ 2 centuries (1820-2010). Our results, obtained by a stack of tide gauge time series, confirm the existence of a global sea-level acceleration (GSLA) and, coherently with independent assessments so far, they point to a value close to 0.01 mm/yr2. However, differently from previous studies, we discuss how change points or abrupt inflections in individual sea-level time series have contributed to the GSLA. Our analysis, based on methods borrowed from econometrics, suggests the existence of two distinct driving mechanisms for the GSLA, both involving a minority of tide gauges globally. The first effectively implies a gradual increase in the rate of sea-level rise at individual tide gauges, while the second is manifest through a sequence of catastrophic variations of the sea-level trend. These occurred intermittently since the end of the 19th century and became more frequent during the last four decades.

  4. Acceleration of Sea Level Rise Over Malaysian Seas from Satellite Altimeter

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hamid, A. I. A.; Din, A. H. M.; Khalid, N. F.; Omar, K. M.

    2016-09-01

    Sea level rise becomes our concern nowadays as a result of variously contribution of climate change that cause by the anthropogenic effects. Global sea levels have been rising through the past century and are projected to rise at an accelerated rate throughout the 21st century. Due to this change, sea level is now constantly rising and eventually will threaten many low-lying and unprotected coastal areas in many ways. This paper is proposing a significant effort to quantify the sea level trend over Malaysian seas based on the combination of multi-mission satellite altimeters over a period of 23 years. Eight altimeter missions are used to derive the absolute sea level from Radar Altimeter Database System (RADS). Data verification is then carried out to verify the satellite derived sea level rise data with tidal data. Eight selected tide gauge stations from Peninsular Malaysia, Sabah and Sarawak are chosen for this data verification. The pattern and correlation of both measurements of sea level anomalies (SLA) are evaluated over the same period in each area in order to produce comparable results. Afterwards, the time series of the sea level trend is quantified using robust fit regression analysis. The findings clearly show that the absolute sea level trend is rising and varying over the Malaysian seas with the rate of sea level varies and gradually increase from east to west of Malaysia. Highly confident and correlation level of the 23 years measurement data with an astonishing root mean square difference permits the absolute sea level trend of the Malaysian seas has raised at the rate 3.14 ± 0.12 mm yr-1 to 4.81 ± 0.15 mm yr-1 for the chosen sub-areas, with an overall mean of 4.09 ± 0.12 mm yr-1. This study hopefully offers a beneficial sea level information to be applied in a wide range of related environmental and climatology issue such as flood and global warming.

  5. Glaciers and Sea Level Rise

    NASA Image and Video Library

    2017-12-08

    Small valley glacier exiting the Devon Island Ice Cap in Canada. To learn about the contributions of glaciers to sea level rise, visit: www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/glacier-sea-rise.html Credit: Alex Gardner, Clark University NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram

  6. Glaciers and Sea Level Rise

    NASA Image and Video Library

    2017-12-08

    Aerial view of the Sverdrup Glacier, a river of ice that flows from the interior of the Devon Island Ice Cap (Canada) into the ocean. To learn about the contributions of glaciers to sea level rise, visit: www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/glacier-sea-rise.html Credit: Alex Gardner, Clark University NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram

  7. Glaciers and Sea Level Rise

    NASA Image and Video Library

    2017-12-08

    Melt water ponded at surface in the accumulation zone of Columbia Glacier, Alaska, in July 2008. To learn about the contributions of glaciers to sea level rise, visit: www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/glacier-sea-rise.html Credit: W. Tad Pfeffer, University of Colorado at Boulder NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram

  8. Glaciers and Sea Level Rise

    NASA Image and Video Library

    2017-12-08

    Summit camp on top of the Austfonna Ice Cap in Svalbard (Norwegian Arctic). To learn about the contributions of glaciers to sea level rise, visit: www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/glacier-sea-rise.html Credit: Thorben Dunse, University of Oslo NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram

  9. Glaciers and Sea Level Rise

    NASA Image and Video Library

    2017-12-08

    This ice cave in Belcher Glacier (Devon Island, Canada) was formed by melt water flowing within the glacier ice. To learn about the contributions of glaciers to sea level rise, visit: www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/glacier-sea-rise.html Credit: Angus Duncan, University of Saskatchewan NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram

  10. Sea-level Fingerprinting, Vertical Crustal Motion from GIA, and Projections of Relative Sea-level Change in the Canadian Arctic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    James, Thomas; Simon, Karen; Forbes, Donald; Dyke, Arthur; Mazzotti, Stephane

    2010-05-01

    We present projections of relative sea-level rise in the 21st century for communities in the Canadian Arctic. First, for selected communities, we determine the sea-level fingerprinting response from Antarctica, Greenland, and mountain glaciers and ice caps. Then, for various published projections of global sea-level change in the 21st century, we determine the local amount of "absolute" sea-level change. We next determine the vertical land motion arising from glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) and incorporate this into the estimates of absolute sea-level change to obtain projections of relative sea-level change. The sea-level fingerprinting effect is especially important in the Canadian Arctic owing to proximity to Arctic ice caps and especially to the Greenland ice sheet. Its effect is to reduce the range of projected relative sea-level change compared to the range of global sea-level projections. Vertical crustal motion is assessed through empirically derived regional isobases, the Earth's predicted response to ice-sheet loading and unloading by the ICE-5G ice sheet reconstruction, and Global Positioning System vertical velocities. Owing to the large rates of crustal uplift from glacial isostatic adjustment across a large region of central Arctic Canada, many communities are projected to experience relative sea-level fall despite projections of global sea-level rise. Where uplift rates are smaller, such as eastern Baffin Island and the western Canadian Arctic, sea-level is projected to rise.

  11. Glaciers and Sea Level Rise

    NASA Image and Video Library

    2017-12-08

    Calving front of the Upsala Glacier (Argentina). This glacier has been thinning and retreating at a rapid rate during the last decades – from 2006 to 2010, it receded 43.7 yards (40 meters) per year. During summer 2012, large calving events prevented boat access to the glacier. To learn about the contributions of glaciers to sea level rise, visit: www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/glacier-sea-rise.html Credit: Etienne Berthier, Université de Toulouse NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram

  12. Glaciers and Sea Level Rise

    NASA Image and Video Library

    2017-12-08

    Calving front of the Perito Moreno Glacier (Argentina). Contrary to the majority of the glaciers from the southern Patagonian ice field, the Perito Moreno Glacier is currently stable. It is also one of the most visited glaciers in the world. To learn about the contributions of glaciers to sea level rise, visit: www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/glacier-sea-rise.html Credit: Etienne Berthier, Université de Toulouse NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram

  13. Glaciers and Sea Level Rise

    NASA Image and Video Library

    2013-05-15

    An airplane drops essential support on the Austfonna Ice Cap in Svalbard (Norwegian Arctic). The triangular structure is a corner reflector used as ground reference for airborne radar surveys. To learn about the contributions of glaciers to sea level rise, visit: www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/glacier-sea-rise.html Credit: Andrea Taurisano, Norwegian Polar Institute NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram

  14. Glaciers and Sea Level Rise

    NASA Image and Video Library

    2017-12-08

    Peripheral glaciers and ice caps (isolated from the main ice sheet, which is seen in the upper right section of the image) in eastern Greenland. To learn about the contributions of glaciers to sea level rise, visit: www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/glacier-sea-rise.html Credit: Frank Paul, University of Zurich NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram

  15. Glaciers and Sea Level Rise

    NASA Image and Video Library

    2017-12-08

    The Aletsch Glacier in Switzerland is the largest valley glacier in the Alps. Its volume loss since the middle of the 19th century is well-visible from the trimlines to the right of the image. To learn about the contributions of glaciers to sea level rise, visit: www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/glacier-sea-rise.html Credit: Frank Paul, University of Zurich NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram

  16. Sea-Level Projections from the SeaRISE Initiative

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nowicki, Sophie; Bindschadler, Robert

    2011-01-01

    SeaRISE (Sea-level Response to Ice Sheet Evolution) is a community organized modeling effort, whose goal is to inform the fifth IPCC of the potential sea-level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets in the 21st and 22nd century. SeaRISE seeks to determine the most likely ice sheet response to imposed climatic forcing by initializing an ensemble of models with common datasets and applying the same forcing to each model. Sensitivity experiments were designed to quantify the sea-level rise associated with a change in: 1) surface mass balance, 2) basal lubrication, and 3) ocean induced basal melt. The range of responses, resulting from the multi-model approach, is interpreted as a proxy of uncertainty in our sea-level projections. http://websrv.cs .umt.edu/isis/index.php/SeaRISE_Assessment.

  17. Chapter 12: Sea Level Rise

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sweet, W. V.; Horton, R.; Kopp, R. E.; LeGrande, A. N.; Romanou, A.

    2017-01-01

    Global mean sea level (GMSL) has risen by about 7-8 inches (about 16-21 cm) since 1900, with about 3 of those inches (about 7 cm) occurring since 1993. Human-caused climate change has made a substantial contribution to GMSL rise since 1900, contributing to a rate of rise that is greater than during any preceding century in at least 2,800 years. Relative to the year 2000, GMSL is very likely to rise by 0.3-0.6 feet (9-18 cm) by 2030, 0.5-1.2 feet (15-38 cm) by 2050, and 1.0-4.3 feet (30-130 cm) by 2100. Future pathways have little effect on projected GMSL rise in the first half of the century, but significantly affect projections for the second half of the century. Emerging science regarding Antarctic ice sheet stability suggests that, for high emission scenarios, a GMSL rise exceeding 8 feet (2.4 m) by 2100 is physically possible, although the probability of such an extreme outcome cannot currently be assessed. Regardless of pathway, it is extremely likely that GMSL rise will continue beyond 2100. Relative sea level (RSL) rise in this century will vary along U.S. coastlines due, in part, to changes in Earth's gravitational field and rotation from melting of land ice, changes in ocean circulation, and vertical land motion (very high confidence). For almost all future GMSL rise scenarios, RSL rise is likely to be greater than the global average in the U.S. Northeast and the western Gulf of Mexico. In intermediate and low GMSL rise scenarios, RSL rise is likely to be less than the global average in much of the Pacific Northwest and Alaska. For high GMSL rise scenarios, RSL rise is likely to be higher than the global average along all U.S. coastlines outside Alaska. Almost all U.S. coastlines experience more than global mean sea level rise in response to Antarctic ice loss, and thus would be particularly affected under extreme GMSL rise scenarios involving substantial Antarctic mass loss. As sea levels have risen, the number of tidal floods each year that cause minor

  18. The Relation between the Absolute Level of Parenting and Differential Parental Treatment with Adolescent Siblings' Adjustment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tamrouti-Makkink, Ilse D.; Dubas, Judith Semon; Gerris, Jan R. M.; van Aken, Marcel A. G.

    2004-01-01

    Background: The present study extends existing studies on the role of differential parental treatment in explaining individual differences in adolescent problem behaviors above the absolute level of parenting and clarifies the function of gender of the child, birth rank and gender constellation of the sibling dyads. Method: The absolute level of…

  19. Precise mean sea level measurements using the Global Positioning System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kelecy, Thomas M.; Born, George H.; Parke, Michael E.; Rocken, Christian

    1994-01-01

    This paper describes the results of a sea level measurement test conducted off La Jolla, California, in November of 1991. The purpose of this test was to determine accurate sea level measurements using a Global Positioning System (GPS) equipped buoy. These measurements were intended to be used as the sea level component for calibration of the ERS 1 satellite altimeter. Measurements were collected on November 25 and 28 when the ERS 1 satellite overflew the calibration area. Two different types of buoys were used. A waverider design was used on November 25 and a spar design on November 28. This provided the opportunity to examine how dynamic effects of the measurement platform might affect the sea level accuracy. The two buoys were deployed at locations approximately 1.2 km apart and about 15 km west of a reference GPS receiver located on the rooftop of the Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics at the Scripps Institute of Oceanography. GPS solutions were computed for 45 minutes on each day and used to produce two sea level time series. An estimate of the mean sea level at both locations was computed by subtracting tide gage data collected at the Scripps Pier from the GPS-determined sea level measurements and then filtering out the high-frequency components due to waves and buoy dynamics. In both cases the GPS estimate differed from Rapp's mean altimetric surface by 0.06 m. Thus, the gradient in the GPS measurements matched the gradient in Rapp's surface. These results suggest that accurate sea level can be determined using GPS on widely differing platforms as long as care is taken to determine the height of the GPS antenna phase center above water level. Application areas include measurement of absolute sea level, of temporal variations in sea level, and of sea level gradients (dominantly the geoid). Specific applications would include ocean altimeter calibration, monitoring of sea level in remote regions, and regional experiments requiring spatial and

  20. Anthropogenic sea level rise and adaptation in the Yangtze estuary

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cheng, H.; Chen, J.; Chen, Z.; Ruan, R.; Xu, G.; Zeng, G.; Zhu, J.; Dai, Z.; Gu, S.; Zhang, X.; Wang, H.

    2016-02-01

    Sea level rise is a major projected threat of climate change. There are regional variations in sea level changes, depending on both naturally the tectonic subsidence, geomorphology, naturally changing river inputs and anthropogenic driven forces as artificial reservoir water impoundment within the watershed and urban land subsidence driven by ground water depletion in the river delta. Little is known on regional sea level fall in response to the channel erosion due to the sediment discharge decline by reservoir interception in the upstream watershed, and water level rise driven by anthropogenic measures as the land reclamation, deep waterway regulation and fresh water reservoir construction to the sea level change in estuaries. Changing coastal cities are situated in the delta regions expected to be threatened in various degrees. Shanghai belongs to those cities. Here we show that the anthropogenic driven sea level rise in the Yangtze estuary from the point of view of the continuous hydrodynamic system consisted of river catchment, estuary and coastal sea. Land subsidence is cited as 4 mm/a (2011-2030). Scour depth of the estuarine channel by upstream engineering as Three Gauge Dam is estimated at 2-10 cm (2011-2030). The rise of water level by deep waterway and land reclamation is estimated at 8-10 cm (2011-2030). The relative sea level rise will be speculated about 10 -16 cm (2011-2030), which these anthropogenic sea level changes will be imposed into the absolute sea level rise 2 mm/a and tectonic subsidence 1 mm/a measured in 1990s. The action guideline to the sea level rise strategy in the Shanghai city have been proposed to the Shanghai government as (1) recent actions (2012-2015) to upgrade the city water supply and drainage engineering and protective engineering; (2) interim actions (2016-2020) to improve sea level monitoring and early warning system, and then the special, city, regional planning considering sea level rise; (3) long term actions (2021

  1. Observed mean sea level changes around the North Sea coastline from 1800 to present

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wahl, T.; Haigh, I. D.; Woodworth, P. L.; Albrecht, F.; Dillingh, D.; Jensen, J.; Nicholls, R. J.; Weisse, R.; Wöppelmann, G.

    2013-09-01

    This paper assesses historic changes in mean sea level around the coastline of the North Sea, one of the most densely populated coasts in the world. Typically, such analyses have been conducted at a national level, and detailed geographically wider analyses have not been undertaken for about 20 years. We analyse long records (up to 200 years) from 30 tide gauge sites, which are reasonably uniformly distributed along the coastline, and: (1) calculate relative sea level trends; (2) examine the inter-annual and decadal variations; (3) estimate regional geocentric (sometimes also referred to as 'absolute') sea level rise throughout the 20th century; and (4) assess the evidence for regional acceleration of sea-level rise. Relative sea level changes are broadly consistent with known vertical land movement patterns. The inter-annual and decadal variability is partly coherent across the region, but with some differences between the Inner North Sea and the English Channel. Data sets from various sources are used to provide estimates of the geocentric sea level changes. The long-term geocentric mean sea level trend for the 1900 to 2011 period is estimated to be 1.5 ± 0.1 mm/yr for the entire North Sea region. The trend is slightly higher for the Inner North Sea (i.e. 1.6 ± 0.1 mm/yr), and smaller but not significantly different on the 95% confidence level for the English Channel (i.e. 1.2 ± 0.1 mm/yr). The uncertainties in the estimates of vertical land movement rates are still large, and the results from a broad range of approaches for determining these rates are not consistent. Periods of sea level rise acceleration are detected at different times throughout the last 200 years and are to some extent related to air pressure variations. The recent rates of sea level rise (i.e. over the last two to three decades) are high compared to the long-term average, but are comparable to those which have been observed at other times in the late 19th and 20th century.

  2. Changes in Sea Levels around the British Isles Revisited (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Teferle, F. N.; Hansen, D. N.; Bingley, R. M.; Williams, S. D.; Woodworth, P. L.; Gehrels, W. R.; Bradley, S. L.; Stocchi, P.

    2009-12-01

    Recently a number of new and/or updated sources for estimates of vertical land movements for the British Isles have become available allowing the relative and average changes in sea levels for this region to be revisited. The geodetic data set stems from a combination of re-processed continuous Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements from stations in the British Isles and from a global reference frame network, and absolute gravity (AG) measurements from two stations in the British Isles. The geologic data set of late Holocene sea level indicators has recently been updated, now applying corrections for the 20th century sea level rise, syphoning effect and late Holocene global ice melt, and expanded to Northern Ireland and Ireland. Several new model predictions of the glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) process active in this region form the modelling data set of vertical land movements for the British Isles. Correcting the updated revised local reference (RLR) trends from the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) with these vertical land movement data sets, regional and averaged changes in sea levels around the British Isles have been investigated. Special focus is thereby also given to the coastal areas that have recently been identified within the UK Climate Projections 2009.

  3. Sea Level Changes: Determination and Effects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Woodworth, P. L.; Pugh, D. T.; DeRonde, J. G.; Warrick, R. G.; Hannah, J.

    The measurement of sea level is of fundamental importance to a wide range of research in climatology, oceanography, geology and geodesy. This volume attempts to cover many aspects of the field. The volume opens with a description by Bolduc and Murty of one of the products stemming from the development of tide gauge networks in the northern and tropical Atlantic. This work is relevant to the growth of the Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS), the main goal of which is to provide the world with an efficient, coherent sea level monitoring system for océanographie and climatological research. The subsequent four papers present results from the analysis of existing tide gauge data, including those datasets available from the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level and the TOGA Sea Level Center. Two of the four, by Wroblewski and by Pasaric and Orlic, are concerned with European sea level changes, while Yu Jiye et al. discuss inter-annual changes in the Pacific, and Wang Baocan et al. describe variability in the Changjiang estuary in China. The papers by El- Abd and A wad, on Red Sea levels, are the only contributions to the volume from the large research community of geologists concerned with sea level changes.

  4. Photonic microwave signals with zeptosecond-level absolute timing noise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xie, Xiaopeng; Bouchand, Romain; Nicolodi, Daniele; Giunta, Michele; Hänsel, Wolfgang; Lezius, Matthias; Joshi, Abhay; Datta, Shubhashish; Alexandre, Christophe; Lours, Michel; Tremblin, Pierre-Alain; Santarelli, Giorgio; Holzwarth, Ronald; Le Coq, Yann

    2017-01-01

    Photonic synthesis of radiofrequency (RF) waveforms revived the quest for unrivalled microwave purity because of its ability to convey the benefits of optics to the microwave world. In this work, we perform a high-fidelity transfer of frequency stability between an optical reference and a microwave signal via a low-noise fibre-based frequency comb and cutting-edge photodetection techniques. We demonstrate the generation of the purest microwave signal with a fractional frequency stability below 6.5 × 10-16 at 1 s and a timing noise floor below 41 zs Hz-1/2 (phase noise below -173 dBc Hz-1 for a 12 GHz carrier). This outperforms existing sources and promises a new era for state-of-the-art microwave generation. The characterization is achieved through a heterodyne cross-correlation scheme with the lowermost detection noise. This unprecedented level of purity can impact domains such as radar systems, telecommunications and time-frequency metrology. The measurement methods developed here can benefit the characterization of a broad range of signals.

  5. The Wadden Sea in transition - consequences of sea level rise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Becherer, Johannes; Hofstede, Jacobus; Gräwe, Ulf; Purkiani, Kaveh; Schulz, Elisabeth; Burchard, Hans

    2018-01-01

    The impact of sea level rise (SLR) on the future morphological development of the Wadden Sea (North Sea) is investigated by means of extensive process-resolving numerical simulations. A new sediment and morphodynamic module was implemented in the well-established 3D circulation model GETM. A number of different validations are presented, ranging from an idealized 1D channel over a semi-idealized 2D Wadden Sea basin to a fully coupled realistic 40-year hindcast without morphological amplification of the Sylt-Rømøbight, a semi-enclosed subsystem of the Wadden Sea. Based on the results of the hindcast, four distinct future scenarios covering the period 2010-2100 are simulated. While these scenarios differ in the strength of SLR and wind forcing, they also account for an expected increase of tidal range over the coming century. The results of the future projections indicate a transition from a tidal-flat-dominated system toward a lagoon-like system, in which large fractions of the Sylt-Rømøbight will remain permanently covered by water. This has potentially dramatic implications for the unique ecosystem of the Wadden Sea. Although the simulations also predict an increased accumulation of sediment in the back-barrier basin, this accumulation is far too weak to compensate for the rise in mean sea level.

  6. Sea level trend and variability around the Peninsular Malaysia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Luu, Q. H.; Tkalich, P.; Tay, T. W.

    2014-06-01

    Peninsular Malaysia is bounded from the west by Malacca Strait and the Andaman Sea both connected to the Indian Ocean, and from the east by South China Sea being largest marginal sea in the Pacific Basin. Resulting sea level along Peninsular Malaysia coast is assumed to be governed by various regional phenomena associated with the adjacent parts of the Indian and Pacific Oceans. At annual scale, sea level anomalies (SLAs) are generated by the Asian monsoon; interannual sea level variability is determined by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD); while long-term sea level trend is related to global climate change. To quantify the relative impacts of these multi-scale phenomena on sea level trend and variability around the Peninsular Malaysia, long-term tide gauge record and satellite altimetry are used. During 1984-2011, relative sea level rise (SLR) rates in waters of Malacca Strait and eastern Peninsular Malaysia are found to be 2.4 ± 1.6 mm yr-1 and 2.7 ± 1.0 mm yr-1, respectively. Allowing for corresponding vertical land movements (VLM; 0.8 ± 2.6 mm yr-1 and 0.9 ± 2.2 mm yr-1), their absolute SLR rates are 3.2 ± 4.2 mm yr-1 and 3.6 ± 3.2 mm yr-1, respectively. For the common period 1993-2009, absolute SLR rates obtained from both tide gauge and satellite altimetry in Peninsular Malaysia are similar; and they are slightly higher than the global tendency. It further underlines that VLM should be taken into account to get better estimates of SLR observations. At interannual scale, ENSO affects sea level over the Malaysian coast in the range of ±5 cm with a very high correlation. Meanwhile, IOD modulates sea level anomalies mainly in the Malacca Strait in the range of ±2 cm with a high correlation coefficient. Interannual regional sea level drops are associated with El Niño events and positive phases of the IOD index; while the rises are correlated with La Niña episodes and the negative periods of the IOD index

  7. The Caribbean conundrum of Holocene sea level.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jackson, Luke; Mound, Jon

    2014-05-01

    In the tropics, pre-historic sea-level curve reconstruction is often problematic because it relies upon sea-level indicators whose vertical relationship to the sea surface is poorly constrained. In the Caribbean, fossil corals, mangrove peats and shell material dominate the pre-historic indicator record. The common approach to reconstruction involves the use of modern analogues to these indicators to establish a fixed vertical habitable range. The aim of these reconstructions is to find spatial variability in the Holocene sea level in an area gradually subsiding (< 1.2 mm yr-1) due the water loading following the deglaciation of the Laurentide ice sheet. We construct two catalogues: one of published Holocene sea-level indicators and the other of published, modern growth rates, abundance and coverage of mangrove and coral species for different depths. We use the first catalogue to calibrate 14C ages to give a probabilistic age range for each indicator. We use the second catalogue to define a depth probability distribution function (pdf) for mangroves and each coral species. The Holocene indicators are grouped into 12 sub-regions around the Caribbean. For each sub-region we apply our sea-level reconstruction, which involves stepping a fixed-length time window through time and calculating the position (and rate) of sea-level (change) using a thousand realisations of the time/depth pdfs to define an envelope of probable solutions. We find that the sub-regional relative sea-level curves display spatio-temporal variability including a south-east to north-west 1500 year lag in the arrival of Holocene sea level to that of the present day. We demonstrate that these variations are primarily due to glacial-isostatic-adjustment induced sea-level change and that sub-regional variations (where sufficient data exists) are due to local uplift variability.

  8. Mean and extreme sea level changes in the southwestern Baltic Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schmidt, Jessica; Patzke, Justus; Dangendorf, Sönke; Arns, Arne; Jensen, Jürgen; Fröhle, Peter

    2016-04-01

    In this contribution an overview over the BMBF project AMSeL_Ostsee (2015-2018) for the assessment of mean and extreme sea level changes over the past 150 years in the southwestern Baltic Sea is presented. We compile several high resolution tide gauge records provided by the Water and Shipping Administration (WSV) along the German Baltic Sea coastline and merge them in internationally available data bases (UHSLC, PSMSL, and data officially available at national authorities). In addition, we make efforts in digitizing historical records to expand the number of available data sets in this complex and vulnerable coastal region. To separate absolute from relative long-term changes in sea level the vertical land motion (VLM) at specific sites is assessed. Possible sources of VLM are independently assessed by using different state-of-the-art approaches, that is: Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) modelled by viscoelastic Earth models, GPS derived VLM, and the difference between tide gauge and nearby satellite altimetry. The VLM corrected tide gauge records are further assessed for linear and non-linear trends as well as possible acceleration/deceleration patterns by applying advanced time series models such as Singular System Analysis (SSA) combined with a Monte-Carlo-Autoregressive-Padding approach (Wahl et al., 2010). These trend assessments are applied to mean and extreme sea levels independently to prove whether observed changes in extremes are either due to an underlying trend on mean sea levels or changes in storminess. References: Wahl, T., Jensen, J., Frank, T. (2011): On analysing sea level rise in the German Bight since 1844, NHESS, 10, 171-179.

  9. Climate Adaptation and Sea Level Rise

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA supports the development and maintenance of water utility infrastructure across the country. Included in this effort is helping the nation’s water utilities anticipate, plan for, and adapt to risks from flooding, sea level rise, and storm surge.

  10. Global sea level linked to global temperature

    PubMed Central

    Vermeer, Martin; Rahmstorf, Stefan

    2009-01-01

    We propose a simple relationship linking global sea-level variations on time scales of decades to centuries to global mean temperature. This relationship is tested on synthetic data from a global climate model for the past millennium and the next century. When applied to observed data of sea level and temperature for 1880–2000, and taking into account known anthropogenic hydrologic contributions to sea level, the correlation is >0.99, explaining 98% of the variance. For future global temperature scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fourth Assessment Report, the relationship projects a sea-level rise ranging from 75 to 190 cm for the period 1990–2100. PMID:19995972

  11. Mangrove dieback during fluctuating sea levels.

    PubMed

    Lovelock, Catherine E; Feller, Ilka C; Reef, Ruth; Hickey, Sharyn; Ball, Marilyn C

    2017-05-10

    Recent evidence indicates that climate change and intensification of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has increased variation in sea level. Although widespread impacts on intertidal ecosystems are anticipated to arise from the sea level seesaw associated with climate change, none have yet been demonstrated. Intertidal ecosystems, including mangrove forests are among those ecosystems that are highly vulnerable to sea level rise, but they may also be vulnerable to sea level variability and extreme low sea level events. During 16 years of monitoring of a mangrove forest in Mangrove Bay in north Western Australia, we documented two forest dieback events, the most recent one being coincident with the large-scale dieback of mangroves in the Gulf of Carpentaria in northern Australia. Diebacks in Mangrove Bay were coincident with periods of very low sea level, which were associated with increased soil salinization of 20-30% above pre-event levels, leading to canopy loss, reduced Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and reduced recruitment. Our study indicates that an intensification of ENSO will have negative effects on some mangrove forests in parts of the Indo-Pacific that will exacerbate other pressures.

  12. A Late Pleistocene sea level stack

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spratt, R. M.; Lisiecki, L. E.

    2015-08-01

    Late Pleistocene sea level has been reconstructed from ocean sediment core data using a wide variety of proxies and models. However, the accuracy of individual reconstructions is limited by measurement error, local variations in salinity and temperature, and assumptions particular to each technique. Here we present a sea level stack (average) which increases the signal-to-noise ratio of individual reconstructions. Specifically, we perform principal component analysis (PCA) on seven records from 0-430 ka and five records from 0-798 ka. The first principal component, which we use as the stack, describes ~80 % of the variance in the data and is similar using either five or seven records. After scaling the stack based on Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) sea level estimates, the stack agrees to within 5 m with isostatically adjusted coral sea level estimates for Marine Isotope Stages 5e and 11 (125 and 400 ka, respectively). When we compare the sea level stack with the δ18O of benthic foraminifera, we find that sea level change accounts for about ~40 % of the total orbital-band variance in benthic δ18O, compared to a 65 % contribution during the LGM-to-Holocene transition. Additionally, the second and third principal components of our analyses reflect differences between proxy records associated with spatial variations in the δ18O of seawater.

  13. Vulnerability of marginal seas to sea level rise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gomis, Damia; Jordà, Gabriel

    2017-04-01

    Sea level rise (SLR) is a serious thread for coastal areas and has a potential negative impact on society and economy. SLR can lead for instance to land loss, beach reduction, increase of the damage of marine storms on coastal infrastructures and to the salinization of underground water streams. It is well acknowledged that future SLR will be inhomogeneous across the globe, with regional differences of up to 100% with respect to global mean sea level (GMSL). Several studies have addressed the projections of SLR at regional scale, but most of them are based on global climate models (GCMs) that have a relatively coarse spatial resolution (>1°). In marginal seas this has proven to be a strong limitation, as their particular configurations require spatial resolutions that are not reachable by present GCMs. A paradigmatic case is the Mediterranean Sea, connected to the global ocean through the Strait of Gibraltar, a narrow passage of 14 km width. The functioning of the Mediterranean Sea involves a variety of processes including an overturning circulation, small-scale convection and a rich mesoscale field. Moreover, the long-term evolution of Mediterranean sea level has been significantly different from the global mean during the last decades. The observations of present climate and the projections for the next decades have lead some authors to hypothesize that the particular characteristics of the basin could allow Mediterranean mean sea level to evolve differently from the global mean. Assessing this point is essential to undertake proper adaptation strategies for the largely populated Mediterranean coastal areas. In this work we apply a new approach that combines regional and global projections to analyse future SLR. In a first step we focus on the quantification of the expected departures of future Mediterranean sea level from GMSL evolution and on the contribution of different processes to these departures. As a result we find that, in spite of its particularities

  14. Future sea-level rise in the Mediterranean Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Galassi, Gaia; Spada, Giorgio

    2014-05-01

    Secular sea level variations in the Mediterranean Sea are the result of a number of processes characterized by distinct time scales and spatial patterns. Here we predict the future sea level variations in the Mediterranean Sea to year 2050 combining the contributions from terrestrial ice melt (TIM), glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA), and the ocean response (OR) that includes the thermal expansion and the ocean circulation contributions. The three contributions are characterized by comparable magnitudes but distinctly different sea-level fingerprints across the Mediterranean basin. The TIM component of future sea-level rise is taken from Spada et al. (2013) and it is mainly driven by the melt of small glaciers and ice caps and by the dynamic ice loss from Antarctica. The sea-level fingerprint associated with GIA is studied using two distinct models available from the literature: ICE-5G(VM2) (Peltier, 2004) and the ice model progressively developed at the Research School of Earth Sciences (RSES) of the National Australian University (KL05) (see Fleming and Lambeck, 2004 and references therein). Both the GIA and the TIM sea-level predictions have been obtained with the aid of the SELEN program (Spada and Stocchi, 2007). The spatially-averaged OR component, which includes thermosteric and halosteric sea-level variations, recently obtained using a regional coupled ocean-atmosphere model (Carillo et al., 2012), vary between 2 and 7 cm according to scenarios adopted (EA1B and EA1B2, see Meehl at al., 2007). Since the sea-level variations associated with TIM mainly result from the gravitational interactions between the cryosphere components, the oceans and the solid Earth, and long-wavelength rotational variations, they are characterized by a very smooth global pattern and by a marked zonal symmetry reflecting the dipole geometry of the ice sources. Since the Mediterranean Sea is located in the intermediate far-field of major ice sources, TIM sea-level changes have sub

  15. Sea Level Rise Impacts On Infrastructure Vulnerability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pasqualini, D.; Mccown, A. W.; Backhaus, S.; Urban, N. M.

    2015-12-01

    Increase of global sea level is one of the potential consequences of climate change and represents a threat for the U.S.A coastal regions, which are highly populated and home of critical infrastructures. The potential danger caused by sea level rise may escalate if sea level rise is coupled with an increase in frequency and intensity of storms that may strike these regions. These coupled threats present a clear risk to population and critical infrastructure and are concerns for Federal, State, and particularly local response and recovery planners. Understanding the effect of sea level rise on the risk to critical infrastructure is crucial for long planning and for mitigating potential damages. In this work we quantify how infrastructure vulnerability to a range of storms changes due to an increase of sea level. Our study focuses on the Norfolk area of the U.S.A. We assess the direct damage of drinking water and wastewater facilities and the power sector caused by a distribution of synthetic hurricanes. In addition, our analysis estimates indirect consequences of these damages on population and economic activities accounting also for interdependencies across infrastructures. While projections unanimously indicate an increase in the rate of sea level rise, the scientific community does not agree on the size of this rate. Our risk assessment accounts for this uncertainty simulating a distribution of sea level rise for a specific climate scenario. Using our impact assessment results and assuming an increase of future hurricanes frequencies and intensities, we also estimate the expected benefits for critical infrastructure.

  16. Relative and absolute level populations in beam-foil-excited neutral helium

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Davidson, J.

    1975-01-01

    Relative and absolute populations of 19 levels in beam-foil-excited neutral helium at 0.275 MeV have been measured. The singlet angular-momentum sequences show dependences on principal quantum number consistent with n to the -3rd power, but the triplet sequences do not. Singlet and triplet angular-momentum sequences show similar dependences on level excitation energy. Excitation functions for six representative levels were measured in the range from 0.160 to 0.500 MeV. The absolute level populations increase with energy, whereas the neutral fraction of the beam decreases with energy. Further, the P angular-momentum levels are found to be overpopulated with respect to the S and D levels. The overpopulation decreases with increasing principal quantum number.

  17. A Late Pleistocene sea level stack

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spratt, Rachel M.; Lisiecki, Lorraine E.

    2016-04-01

    Late Pleistocene sea level has been reconstructed from ocean sediment core data using a wide variety of proxies and models. However, the accuracy of individual reconstructions is limited by measurement error, local variations in salinity and temperature, and assumptions particular to each technique. Here we present a sea level stack (average) which increases the signal-to-noise ratio of individual reconstructions. Specifically, we perform principal component analysis (PCA) on seven records from 0 to 430 ka and five records from 0 to 798 ka. The first principal component, which we use as the stack, describes ˜ 80 % of the variance in the data and is similar using either five or seven records. After scaling the stack based on Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) sea level estimates, the stack agrees to within 5 m with isostatically adjusted coral sea level estimates for Marine Isotope Stages 5e and 11 (125 and 400 ka, respectively). Bootstrapping and random sampling yield mean uncertainty estimates of 9-12 m (1σ) for the scaled stack. Sea level change accounts for about 45 % of the total orbital-band variance in benthic δ18O, compared to a 65 % contribution during the LGM-to-Holocene transition. Additionally, the second and third principal components of our analyses reflect differences between proxy records associated with spatial variations in the δ18O of seawater.

  18. Upper Limit for Regional Sea Level Projections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jevrejeva, Svetlana; Jackson, Luke; Riva, Riccardo; Grinsted, Aslak; Moore, John

    2016-04-01

    With more than 150 million people living within 1 m of high tide future sea level rise is one of the most damaging aspects of warming climate. The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report (AR5 IPCC) noted that a 0.5 m rise in mean sea level will result in a dramatic increase the frequency of high water extremes - by an order of magnitude, or more in some regions. Thus the flood threat to the rapidly growing urban populations and associated infrastructure in coastal areas are major concerns for society. Hence, impact assessment, risk management, adaptation strategy and long-term decision making in coastal areas depend on projections of mean sea level and crucially its low probability, high impact, upper range. With probabilistic approach we produce regional sea level projections taking into account large uncertainties associated with Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets contribution. We calculate the upper limit (as 95%) for regional sea level projections by 2100 with RCP8.5 scenario, suggesting that for the most coastlines upper limit will exceed the global upper limit of 1.8 m.

  19. Visualizing Sea Level Rise with Augmented Reality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kintisch, E. S.

    2013-12-01

    Looking Glass is an application on the iPhone that visualizes in 3-D future scenarios of sea level rise, overlaid on live camera imagery in situ. Using a technology known as augmented reality, the app allows a layperson user to explore various scenarios of sea level rise using a visual interface. Then the user can see, in an immersive, dynamic way, how those scenarios would affect a real place. The first part of the experience activates users' cognitive, quantitative thinking process, teaching them how global sea level rise, tides and storm surge contribute to flooding; the second allows an emotional response to a striking visual depiction of possible future catastrophe. This project represents a partnership between a science journalist, MIT, and the Rhode Island School of Design, and the talk will touch on lessons this projects provides on structuring and executing such multidisciplinary efforts on future design projects.

  20. Sea Level Rise in Santa Clara County

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Milesi, Cristina

    2005-01-01

    Presentation by Cristina Milesi, First Author, NASA Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, CA at the "Meeting the Challenge of Sea Level Rise in Santa Clara County" on June 19, 2005 Santa Clara County, bordering with the southern portion of the San Francisco Bay, is highly vulnerable to flooding and to sea level rise (SLR). In this presentation, the latest sea level rise projections for the San Francisco Bay will be discussed in the context of extreme water height frequency and extent of flooding vulnerability. I will also present preliminary estimations of levee requirements and possible mitigation through tidal restoration of existing salt ponds. The examples will draw mainly from the work done by the NASA Climate Adaptation Science Investigators at NASA Ames.

  1. The Sea Level Fingerprints of Global Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mitrovica, J. X.; Hay, C.; Kopp, R. E., III; Morrow, E.

    2014-12-01

    It may be difficult to persuade those living in northern Europe that the sea level changes that their coastal communities face depends less on the total melting of polar ice sheets and glaciers than on the individual contributions to this total. In particular, melting of a specific ice sheet or mountain glacier drives deformational, gravitational and rotational perturbations to the Earth system that are manifest in a unique geometry, or fingerprint, of global sea level change. For example, melting from the Greenland Ice Sheet equivalent to 1 mm/yr of global mean sea level (GMSL) rise will lead to sea level rise of ~0 mm/yr in Dublin, ~0.2 mm/yr in Amsterdam, ~0.4 mm/yr in Boston and ~1.2 mm/yr in Cape Town. In contrast, if the same volume of ice melted from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, all of the above sites would experience a sea level rise in the range 1.1-1.2 mm/yr. These fingerprints of modern ice melting, together with ocean thermal expansion and dynamic effects, and the ongoing signal from glacial isostatic adjustment in response to the last ice age, combine to produce a sea level field with significant geographic variability. In this talk I will highlight an analysis of global tide gauge records that takes full advantage of this variability to estimate both GMSL and the sources of meltwater over the last century, and to project GMSL to the end of the current century.

  2. Evidence for the timing of sea-level events during MIS 3

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Siddall, M.

    2005-12-01

    Four large sea-level peaks of millennial-scale duration occur during MIS 3. In addition smaller peaks may exist close to the sensitivity of existing methods to derive sea level during these periods. Millennial-scale changes in temperature during MIS 3 are well documented across much of the planet and are linked in some unknown, yet fundamental way to changes in ice volume / sea level. It is therefore highly likely that the timing of the sea level events during MIS 3 will prove to be a `Rosetta Stone' for understanding millennial scale climate variability. I will review observational and mechanistic arguments for the variation of sea level on Antarctic, Greenland and absolute time scales.

  3. Sea Level Variability in the Mediterranean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zerbini, S.; Bruni, S.; del Conte, S.; Errico, M.; Petracca, F.; Prati, C.; Raicich, F.; Santi, E.

    2015-12-01

    Tide gauges measure local sea-level relative to a benchmark on land, therefore the interpretation of these measurements can be limited by the lack of appropriate knowledge of vertical crustal motions. The oldest sea-level records date back to the 18th century; these observations are the only centuries-old data source enabling the estimate of historical sea-level trends/variations. In general, tide gauge benchmarks were not frequently levelled, except in those stations where natural and/or anthropogenic subsidence was a major concern. However, in most cases, it is difficult to retrieve the historical geodetic levelling data. Space geodetic techniques, such as GNSS, Doris and InSAR are now providing measurements on a time and space-continuous basis, giving rise to a large amount of different data sets. The vertical motions resulting from the various analyses need to be compared and best exploited for achieving reliable estimates of sea level variations. In the Mediterranean area, there are a few centennial tide gauge records; our study focuses, in particular, on the Italian time series of Genoa, Marina di Ravenna, Venice and Trieste. Two of these stations, Marina di Ravenna and Venice, are affected by both natural and anthropogenic subsidence, the latter was particularly intense during a few decades of the 20th century because of ground fluids withdrawal. We have retrieved levelling data of benchmarks at and/or close to the tide gauges from the end of 1800 and, for the last couple of decades, also GPS and InSAR height time series in close proximity of the stations. By using an ensemble of these data, modelling of the long-period non-linear behavior of subsidence was successfully accomplished. After removal of the land vertical motions, the linear long period sea-level rates of all stations are in excellent agreement. Over the last two decades, the tide gauge rates were also compared with those obtained by satellite radar altimetry data.

  4. Monitoring Sea Level At L'Estartit, Spain

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martinez-Benjamin, J.; Ortiz Castellon, M.; Martinez-Garcia, M.; Talaya, J.; Rodriguez Velasco, G.; Perez, B.

    2007-12-01

    Sea level is an environmental variable which is widely recognised as being important in many scientific disciplines as a control parameter for coastal dynamical processes or climate processes in the coupled atmosphere-ocean systems, as well as engineering applications. A major source of sea-level data are the national networks of coastal tide gauges, in Spain belonging to different institutions as the Instituto Geográfico Nacional (IGN), Puertos del Estado (PE), Instituto Hidrográfico de la Marina (IHM), Ports de la Generalitat, etc. Three Begur Cape experiences on radar altimeter calibration and marine geoid mapping made on 1999, 2000 and 2002 are overviewed. The marine geoid has been used to relate the coastal tide gauge data from l'Estartit harbour to off-shore altimetric data. The necessity to validate and calibrate the satellite's altimeter due to increasing needs in accuracy and long term integrity implies establishing calibration sites with enhanced ground based methods for sea level monitoring. A technical Spanish contribution to the calibration experience has been the design of GPS buoys and GPS catamaran taking in account the University of Colorado at Boulder and Senetosa/Capraia designs. Altimeter calibration is essential to obtain an absolute measure of sea level, as are knowing the instrument's drifts and bias. Specially designed tidegauges are necessary to improve the quality of altimetric data, preferably near the satellite track. Further, due to systematic differences a month instruments onboard different satellites, several in-situ calibrations are essentials to tie their systematic differences. L'Estartit tide gauge is a classical floating tide gauge set up in l'Estartit harbour (NE Spain) in 1990. It provides good quality information about the changes in the sea heights at centimetre level, that is the magnitude of the common tides in theMediterranean. In the framework of a Spanish Space Project, ref:ESP2001- 4534-PE, the instrumentation of sea

  5. Sea Level Rise National Coastal Property Model

    EPA Science Inventory

    The impact of sea level rise on coastal properties depends critically on the human response to the threat, which in turn depends on several factors, including the immediacy of the risk, the magnitude of property value at risk, options for adapting to the threat and the cost of th...

  6. Benchmarking and testing the "Sea Level Equation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spada, G.; Barletta, V. R.; Klemann, V.; van der Wal, W.; James, T. S.; Simon, K.; Riva, R. E. M.; Martinec, Z.; Gasperini, P.; Lund, B.; Wolf, D.; Vermeersen, L. L. A.; King, M. A.

    2012-04-01

    The study of the process of Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) and of the consequent sea level variations is gaining an increasingly important role within the geophysical community. Understanding the response of the Earth to the waxing and waning ice sheets is crucial in various contexts, ranging from the interpretation of modern satellite geodetic measurements to the projections of future sea level trends in response to climate change. All the processes accompanying GIA can be described solving the so-called Sea Level Equation (SLE), an integral equation that accounts for the interactions between the ice sheets, the solid Earth, and the oceans. Modern approaches to the SLE are based on various techniques that range from purely analytical formulations to fully numerical methods. Despite various teams independently investigating GIA, we do not have a suitably large set of agreed numerical results through which the methods may be validated. Following the example of the mantle convection community and our recent successful Benchmark for Post Glacial Rebound codes (Spada et al., 2011, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2011.04952.x), here we present the results of a benchmark study of independently developed codes designed to solve the SLE. This study has taken place within a collaboration facilitated through the European Cooperation in Science and Technology (COST) Action ES0701. The tests involve predictions of past and current sea level variations, and 3D deformations of the Earth surface. In spite of the signi?cant differences in the numerical methods employed, the test computations performed so far show a satisfactory agreement between the results provided by the participants. The differences found, which can be often attributed to the different numerical algorithms employed within the community, help to constrain the intrinsic errors in model predictions. These are of fundamental importance for a correct interpretation of the geodetic variations observed today, and

  7. Analysis of Sea Level Rise in Action

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gill, K. M.; Huang, T.; Quach, N. T.; Boening, C.

    2016-12-01

    NASA's Sea Level Change Portal provides scientists and the general public with "one-stop" source for current sea level change information and data. Sea Level Rise research is a multidisciplinary research and in order to understand its causes, scientists must be able to access different measurements and to be able to compare them. The portal includes an interactive tool, called the Data Analysis Tool (DAT), for accessing, visualizing, and analyzing observations and models relevant to the study of Sea Level Rise. Using NEXUS, an open source, big data analytic technology developed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, the DAT is able provide user on-the-fly data analysis on all relevant parameters. DAT is composed of three major components: A dedicated instance of OnEarth (a WMTS service), NEXUS deep data analytic platform, and the JPL Common Mapping Client (CMC) for web browser based user interface (UI). Utilizing the global imagery, a user is capable of browsing the data in a visual manner and isolate areas of interest for further study. The interfaces "Analysis" tool provides tools for area or point selection, single and/or comparative dataset selection, and a range of options, algorithms, and plotting. This analysis component utilizes the Nexus cloud computing platform to provide on-demand processing of the data within the user-selected parameters and immediate display of the results. A RESTful web API is exposed for users comfortable with other interfaces and who may want to take advantage of the cloud computing capabilities. This talk discuss how DAT enables on-the-fly sea level research. The talk will introduce the DAT with an end-to-end tour of the tool with exploration and animating of available imagery, a demonstration of comparative analysis and plotting, and how to share and export data along with images for use in publications/presentations. The session will cover what kind of data is available, what kind of analysis is possible, and what are the outputs.

  8. Sea level hazards: Altimetric monitoring of tsunamis and sea level rise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hamlington, Benjamin Dillon

    Whether on the short timescale of an impending tsunami or the much longer timescale of climate change-driven sea level rise, the threat stemming from rising and inundating ocean waters is a great concern to coastal populations. Timely and accurate observations of potentially dangerous changes in sea level are vital in determining the precautionary steps that need to be taken in order to protect coastal communities. While instruments from the past have provided in situ measurements of sea level at specific locations across the globe, satellites can be used to provide improved spatial and temporal sampling of the ocean in addition to producing more accurate measurements. Since 1993, satellite altimetry has provided accurate measurements of sea surface height (SSH) with near-global coverage. Not only have these measurements led to the first definitive estimates of global mean sea level rise, satellite altimetry observations have also been used to detect tsunami waves in the open ocean where wave amplitudes are relatively small, a vital step in providing early warning to those potentially affected by the impending tsunami. The use of satellite altimetry to monitor two specific sea level hazards is examined in this thesis. The first section will focus on the detection of tsunamis in the open ocean for the purpose of providing early warning to coastal inhabitants. The second section will focus on estimating secular trends using satellite altimetry data with the hope of improving our understanding of future sea level change. Results presented here will show the utility of satellite altimetry for sea level monitoring and will lay the foundation for further advancement in the detection of the two sea level hazards considered.

  9. A NOAA/NOS Sea Level Advisory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sweet, W.

    2011-12-01

    In order for coastal communities to realize current impacts and become resilient to future changes, sea level advisories/bulletins are necessary that systematically monitor and document non-tidal anomalies (residuals) and flood-watch (elevation) conditions. The need became apparent after an exceptional sea level anomaly along the U.S. East Coast in June - July of 2009 when higher than normal sea levels coincided with a perigean-spring tide and flooded many coastal regions. The event spurred numerous public inquiries to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services (CO-OPS) from coastal communities concerned because of the lack of any coastal storm signatures normally associated with such an anomaly. A subsequent NOAA report provided insight into some of the mechanisms involved in the event and methods for tracking their reoccurrences. NOAA/CO-OPS is the U.S. authority responsible for defining sea level datums and tracking their relative changes in support of marine navigation and national and state land-use boundaries. These efforts are supported by the National Water Level Observation Network (NWLON), whose long-term and widespread observations largely define a total water level measurement impacting a coastal community. NWLON time series provide estimates of local relative sea level trends, a product increasingly utilized by various stakeholders planning for the future. NWLON data also capture significant short-term changes and conveyance of high-water variations (from surge to seasonal scale) provides invaluable insight into inundation patterns ultimately needed for a more comprehensive planning guide. A NOAA/CO-OPS Sea Level Advisory Project will enhance high-water monitoring capabilities by: - Automatically detecting sea level anomalies and flood-watch occurrences - Seasonally calibrating the anomaly thresholds to a locality in terms of flood potential - Alerting for near

  10. Ice sheet systems and sea level change.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rignot, E. J.

    2015-12-01

    Modern views of ice sheets provided by satellites, airborne surveys, in situ data and paleoclimate records while transformative of glaciology have not fundamentally changed concerns about ice sheet stability and collapse that emerged in the 1970's. Motivated by the desire to learn more about ice sheets using new technologies, we stumbled on an unexplored field of science and witnessed surprising changes before realizing that most were coming too fast, soon and large. Ice sheets are integrant part of the Earth system; they interact vigorously with the atmosphere and the oceans, yet most of this interaction is not part of current global climate models. Since we have never witnessed the collapse of a marine ice sheet, observations and exploration remain critical sentinels. At present, these observations suggest that Antarctica and Greenland have been launched into a path of multi-meter sea level rise caused by rapid climate warming. While the current loss of ice sheet mass to the ocean remains a trickle, every mm of sea level change will take centuries of climate reversal to get back, several major marine-terminating sectors have been pushed out of equilibrium, and ice shelves are irremediably being lost. As glaciers retreat from their salty, warm, oceanic margins, they will melt away and retreat slower, but concerns remain about sea level change from vastly marine-based sectors: 2-m sea level equivalent in Greenland and 23-m in Antarctica. Significant changes affect 2/4 marine-based sectors in Greenland - Jakobshavn Isb. and the northeast stream - with Petermann Gl. not far behind. Major changes have affected the Amundsen Sea sector of West Antarctica since the 1980s. Smaller yet significant changes affect the marine-based Wilkes Land sector of East Antarctica, a reminder that not all marine-based ice is in West Antarctica. Major advances in reducing uncertainties in sea level projections will require massive, interdisciplinary efforts that are not currently in place

  11. DUACS: Toward High Resolution Sea Level Products

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Faugere, Y.; Gerald, D.; Ubelmann, C.; Claire, D.; Pujol, M. I.; Antoine, D.; Desjonqueres, J. D.; Picot, N.

    2016-12-01

    The DUACS system produces, as part of the CNES/SALP project, and the Copernicus Marine Environment and Monitoring Service, high quality multimission altimetry Sea Level products for oceanographic applications, climate forecasting centers, geophysic and biology communities... These products consist in directly usable and easy to manipulate Level 3 (along-track cross-calibrated SLA) and Level 4 products (multiple sensors merged as maps or time series) and are available in global and regional version (Mediterranean Sea, Arctic, European Shelves …).The quality of the products is today limited by the altimeter technology "Low Resolution Mode" (LRM), and the lack of available observations. The launch of 2 new satellites in 2016, Jason-3 and Sentinel-3A, opens new perspectives. Using the global Synthetic Aperture Radar mode (SARM) coverage of S3A and optimizing the LRM altimeter processing (retracking, editing, ...) will allow us to fully exploit the fine-scale content of the altimetric missions. Thanks to this increase of real time altimetry observations we will also be able to improve Level-4 products by combining these new Level-3 products and new mapping methodology, such as dynamic interpolation. Finally these improvements will benefit to downstream products : geostrophic currents, Lagrangian products, eddy atlas… Overcoming all these challenges will provide major upgrades of Sea Level products to better fulfill user needs.

  12. The future for the Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS) Sea Level Data Rescue

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bradshaw, Elizabeth; Matthews, Andrew; Rickards, Lesley; Aarup, Thorkild

    2016-04-01

    Historical sea level data are rare and unrepeatable measurements with a number of applications in climate studies (sea level rise), oceanography (ocean currents, tides, surges), geodesy (national datum), geophysics and geology (coastal land movements) and other disciplines. However, long-term time series are concentrated in the northern hemisphere and there are no records at the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) global data bank longer than 100 years in the Arctic, Africa, South America or Antarctica. Data archaeology activities will help fill in the gaps in the global dataset and improve global sea level reconstruction. The Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS) is an international programme conducted under the auspices of the WMO-IOC Joint Technical Commission for Oceanography and Marine Meteorology. It was set up in 1985 to collect long-term tide gauge observations and to develop systems and standards "for ocean monitoring and flood warning purposes". At the GLOSS-GE-XIV Meeting in 2015, GLOSS agreed on a number of action items to be developed in the next two years. These were: 1. To explore mareogram digitisation applications, including NUNIEAU (more information available at: http://www.mediterranee.cerema.fr/logiciel-de-numerisation-des-enregistrements-r57.html) and other recent developments in scanning/digitisation software, such as IEDRO's Weather Wizards program, to see if they could be used via a browser. 2. To publicise sea level data archaeology and rescue by: • maintaining and regularly updating the Sea Level Data Archaeology page on the GLOSS website • strengthening links to the GLOSS data centres and data rescue organisations e.g. linking to IEDRO, ACRE, RDA • restarting the sea level data rescue blog with monthly posts. 3. Investigate sources of funding for data archaeology and rescue projects. 4. Propose "Guidelines" for rescuing sea level data. These action items will aid the discovery, scanning, digitising and quality control

  13. A 6,700 years sea-level record based on French Polynesian coral reefs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hallmann, Nadine; Camoin, Gilbert; Eisenhauer, Anton; Vella, Claude; Samankassou, Elias; Botella, Albéric; Milne, Glenn; Fietzke, Jan; Dussouillez, Philippe

    2015-04-01

    Sea-level change during the Mid- to Late Holocene has a similar amplitude to the sea-level rise that is likely to occur before the end of the 21st century providing a unique opportunity to study the coastal response to sea-level change and to reveal an important baseline of natural climate variability prior to the industrial revolution. Mid- to Late Holocene relative sea-level change in French Polynesia was reconstructed using coral reef records from ten islands, which represent ideal settings for accurate sea-level studies because: 1) they can be regarded as tectonically stable during the relevant period (slow subsidence), 2) they are located far from former ice sheets (far-field), 3) they are characterized by a low tidal amplitude, and 4) they cover a wide range of latitudes which produces significantly improved constraints on GIA (Glacial Isostatic Adjustment) model parameters. Absolute U/Th dating of in situ coral colonies and their accurate positioning via GPS RTK (Real Time Kinematic) measurements is crucial for an accurate reconstruction of sea-level change. We focus mainly on the analysis of coral microatolls, which are sensitive low-tide recorders, as their vertical accretion is limited by the mean low water springs level. Growth pattern analysis allows the reconstruction of low-amplitude, high-frequency sea-level changes on centennial to sub-decadal time scales. A sea-level rise of less than 1 m is recorded between 6 and 3-3.5 ka, and is followed by a gradual fall in sea level that started around 2.5 ka and persisted until the past few centuries. The reconstructed sea-level curve therefore extends the Tahiti sea-level curve [Deschamps et al., 2012, Nature, 483, 559-564], and is in good agreement with a geophysical model tuned to fit far-field deglacial records [Bassett et al., 2005, Science, 309, 925-928].

  14. Consequences of sea level variability and sea level rise for Cuban territory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hernández, M.; Martínez, C. A.; Marzo, O.

    2015-03-01

    The objective of the present paper was to determine a first approximation of coastal zone flooding by 2100, taking into account the more persistent processes of sea level variability and non-accelerated linear sea level rise estimation to assess the main impacts. The annual linear rate of mean sea level rise in the Cuban archipelago, obtained from the longest tide gauge records, has fluctuated between 0.005 cm/year at Casilda and 0.214 cm/year at Siboney. The main sea level rise effects for the Cuban coastal zone due to climate change and global warming are shown. Monthly and annual mean sea level anomalies, some of which are similar to or higher than the mean sea level rise estimated for halfway through the present century, reinforce the inland seawater penetration due to the semi-daily high tide. The combination of these different events will result in the loss of goods and services, and require expensive investments for adaption.

  15. Sea-level changes before large earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wyss, M.

    1978-01-01

    Changes in sea level have long been used as a measure of local uplift and subsidence associated with large earthquakes. For instance, in 1835, the British naturalist Charles Darwin observed that sea level dropped by 2.7 meters during the large earthquake in Concepcion, CHile. From this piece of evidence and the terraces along the beach that he saw, Darwin concluded that the Andes had grown to their present height through earthquakes. Much more recently, George Plafker and James C. Savage of the U.S Geological Survey have shown, from barnacle lines, that the great 1960 Chile and the 1964 Alaska earthquakes caused several meters of vertical displacement of the shoreline. 

  16. Hurricanes, sea level rise, and coastal change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sallenger,, Asbury H.; Wang, Ping; Rosati, Julie D.; Roberts, Tiffany M.

    2011-01-01

    Sixteen hurricanes have made landfall along the U.S. east and Gulf coasts over the past decade. For most of these storms, the USGS with our partners in NASA and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers have flown before and after lidar missions to detect changes in beaches and dunes. The most dramatic changes occurred when the coasts were completely submerged in an inundation regime. Where this occurred locally, a new breach was cut, like during Hurricane Isabel in North Carolina. Where surge inundated an entire island, the sand was stripped off leaving marshy outcrops behind, like during Hurricane Katrina in Louisiana. Sea level rise together with sand starvation and repeated hurricane impacts could increase the probabilities of inundation and degrade coasts more than sea level rise alone.

  17. Rising Sea Levels: Truth or Scare?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Peacock, Alan

    2007-01-01

    When "ITV News" ran an item that shocked the author, about rising sea levels that will have caused the entire evacuation of the islands by the end of this year, he began to wonder whether the Pacific Ocean is really rising as fast as this. The media reporting of such things can be a double-edged sword. On the one hand, it brought to the author's…

  18. Aided Electrophysiology Using Direct Audio Input: Effects of Amplification and Absolute Signal Level

    PubMed Central

    Billings, Curtis J.; Miller, Christi W.; Tremblay, Kelly L.

    2016-01-01

    Purpose This study investigated (a) the effect of amplification on cortical auditory evoked potentials (CAEPs) at different signal levels when signal-to-noise ratios (SNRs) were equated between unaided and aided conditions, and (b) the effect of absolute signal level on aided CAEPs when SNR was held constant. Method CAEPs were recorded from 13 young adults with normal hearing. A 1000-Hz pure tone was presented in unaided and aided conditions with a linear analog hearing aid. Direct audio input was used, allowing recorded hearing aid noise floor to be added to unaided conditions to equate SNRs between conditions. An additional stimulus was created through scaling the noise floor to study the effect of signal level. Results Amplification resulted in delayed N1 and P2 peak latencies relative to the unaided condition. An effect of absolute signal level (when SNR was constant) was present for aided CAEP area measures, such that larger area measures were found at higher levels. Conclusion Results of this study further demonstrate that factors in addition to SNR must also be considered before CAEPs can be used to clinically to measure aided thresholds. PMID:26953543

  19. Probabilistic assessment of sea level during the last interglacial stage.

    PubMed

    Kopp, Robert E; Simons, Frederik J; Mitrovica, Jerry X; Maloof, Adam C; Oppenheimer, Michael

    2009-12-17

    With polar temperatures approximately 3-5 degrees C warmer than today, the last interglacial stage (approximately 125 kyr ago) serves as a partial analogue for 1-2 degrees C global warming scenarios. Geological records from several sites indicate that local sea levels during the last interglacial were higher than today, but because local sea levels differ from global sea level, accurately reconstructing past global sea level requires an integrated analysis of globally distributed data sets. Here we present an extensive compilation of local sea level indicators and a statistical approach for estimating global sea level, local sea levels, ice sheet volumes and their associated uncertainties. We find a 95% probability that global sea level peaked at least 6.6 m higher than today during the last interglacial; it is likely (67% probability) to have exceeded 8.0 m but is unlikely (33% probability) to have exceeded 9.4 m. When global sea level was close to its current level (>or=-10 m), the millennial average rate of global sea level rise is very likely to have exceeded 5.6 m kyr(-1) but is unlikely to have exceeded 9.2 m kyr(-1). Our analysis extends previous last interglacial sea level studies by integrating literature observations within a probabilistic framework that accounts for the physics of sea level change. The results highlight the long-term vulnerability of ice sheets to even relatively low levels of sustained global warming.

  20. Sea level forecasts using neural networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Röske, Frank

    1997-03-01

    In this paper, a new method for predicting the sea level employing a neural network approach is introduced. It was designed to improve the prediction of the sea level along the German North Sea Coast under standard conditions. The sea level at any given time depends upon the tides as well as meteorological and oceanographic factors, such as the winds and external surges induced by air pressure. Since tidal predictions are already sufficiently accurate, they have been subtracted from the observed sea levels. The differences will be predicted up to 18 hours in advance. In this paper, the differences are called anomalies. The prediction of the sea level each hour is distinguished from its predictions at the times of high and low tide. For this study, Cuxhaven was selected as a reference site. The predictions made using neural networks were compared for accuracy with the prognoses prepared using six models: two hydrodynamic models, a statistical model, a nearest neighbor model, which is based on analogies, the persistence model, and the verbal forecasts that are broadcast and kept on record by the Sea Level Forecast Service of the Federal Maritime and Hydrography Agency (BSH) in Hamburg. Predictions were calculated for the year 1993 and compared with the actual levels measured. Artificial neural networks are capable of learning. By applying them to the prediction of sea levels, learning from past events has been attempted. It was also attempted to make the experiences of expert forecasters objective. Instead of using the wide-spread back-propagation networks, the self-organizing feature map of Kohonen, or “Kohonen network”, was applied. The fundamental principle of this network is the transformation of the signal similarity into the neighborhood of the neurons while preserving the topology of the signal space. The self-organization procedure of Kohonen networks can be visualized. To make predictions, these networks have been subdivided into a part describing the

  1. A fast signal subspace approach for the determination of absolute levels from phased microphone array measurements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sarradj, Ennes

    2010-04-01

    Phased microphone arrays are used in a variety of applications for the estimation of acoustic source location and spectra. The popular conventional delay-and-sum beamforming methods used with such arrays suffer from inaccurate estimations of absolute source levels and in some cases also from low resolution. Deconvolution approaches such as DAMAS have better performance, but require high computational effort. A fast beamforming method is proposed that can be used in conjunction with a phased microphone array in applications with focus on the correct quantitative estimation of acoustic source spectra. This method bases on an eigenvalue decomposition of the cross spectral matrix of microphone signals and uses the eigenvalues from the signal subspace to estimate absolute source levels. The theoretical basis of the method is discussed together with an assessment of the quality of the estimation. Experimental tests using a loudspeaker setup and an airfoil trailing edge noise setup in an aeroacoustic wind tunnel show that the proposed method is robust and leads to reliable quantitative results.

  2. New constraints on MIS 7 and 5 relative sea-level at Bermuda: a speleothem approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wainer, Karine; Henderson, Gideon; Mason, Andrew; Thomas, Alexander; Williams, Bruce; Rowe, Mark; van Hengstum, Peter; Chandler, Robert

    2014-05-01

    It is now widely accepted that a sea-level rise is associated with global warming [1]. However, its rate, and the height it might reach by the end of the century remain poorly constrained. This study aims to provide better information and precision on the rates and magnitudes of past sea-level change, for periods when sea-level is close to its modern value, using speleothems from Bermudian caves. Speleothems interrupt their growth when they are submerged by sea-water, so U-Th dating periods of growth in coastal sites allows the reconstruction of past sea-level variation versus absolute time [e.g. 2,3,4]. We will present new MC-ICP-MS U-Th ages, trace elements and isotopic data from a set of speleothems (stalagmites, stalactites, flowstones) collected from -14 to +12 m versus modern sea level from several caves in this northern Atlantic archipelago. Relative sea-level (RSL) at Bermuda is of particular interest because it is at a distance from northern hemisphere ice sheets where the isostatic response to ice-unloading is uncertain. RSL reconstruction therefore provides both an indicates of possible rates of sea level change, and a test for glacial-isostatic-adjustment (GIA) models. We will present new relative sea level data for late MIS7, and the different highstands of MIS5. The RSL at Bermuda for these episodes appears to be higher than present. For MIS5a, this is significantly distinct from what is expected from the eustatic sea level. These results will be considered in the context of previous assessments of eustatic change, and of GIA models. [1] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007) Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report, Cambridge Univ. Press. [2] Harmon et al. (1981) Nature 289, 357-360. [3] Richards et al. (1994) Nature 367, 481-483. [4] Bard (2002) EPSL 196, 135-146.

  3. Sea Level Trend and Variability in the Straits of Singapore and Malacca

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Luu, Q.; Tkalich, P.

    2013-12-01

    of -0.7 (in correspondence with the Multivariate ENSO Index). The IOD modulates interannual sea level variability only in the Malacca Strait in the range of ×3 cm with a correlation coefficient of -0.6 (with respect to the Dipole Mode Index). At annual scale, SLAs in the SSM are mainly monsoon-driven; of the order of 20 cm. Mean sea level in the Singapore Strait reach the peak during northeast monsoon and trough during southwest monsoon; while these in the Malacca Strait are highest at middle of both monsoons and lowest during their transitional monsoonal seasons. Global and regional signals are quantitatively captured in the SSM. In comparison with the global sea level trends, SSM sea level rise are larger for recent decades 1984-2009. Taking into account the rough estimate of land subsidence rates in Singapore (2006-2011) and Peninsular Malaysia (1994-2004), the trend of absolute sea level rise in SSM follows regional tendency. At interannual scale, ENSO modulates sea level variabilities in the entire SSM region, while IOD affects the Malacca Strait only. At annual scale, sea level responds differently to the Asian monsoon: quasi-periodic cycles are observed twice a year in the Malacca Strait, but once a year in the Singapore Strait. Such behavior implies that the narrow channel constriction between the Singapore and Malacca Straits may be a reason of different variability of sea level in the domains.

  4. Continuous sea-level reconstructions beyond the Pleistocene: improving the Mediterranean sea-level method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grant, K.; Rohling, E. J.; Amies, J.

    2017-12-01

    Sea-level (SL) reconstructions over glacial-interglacial timeframes are critical for understanding the equilibrium response of ice sheets to sustained warming. In particular, continuous and high-resolution SL records are essential for accurately quantifying `natural' rates of SL rise. Global SL changes are well-constrained since the last glacial maximum ( 20,000 years ago, ky) by radiometrically-dated corals and paleoshoreline data, and fairly well-constrained over the last glacial cycle ( 150 ky). Prior to that, however, studies of ice-volume:SL relationships tend to rely on benthic δ18O, as geomorphological evidence is far more sparse and less reliably dated. An alternative SL reconstruction method (the `marginal basin' approach) was developed for the Red Sea over 500 ky, and recently attempted for the Mediterranean over 5 My (Rohling et al., 2014, Nature). This method exploits the strong sensitivity of seawater δ18O in these basins to SL changes in the relatively narrow and shallow straits which connect the basins with the open ocean. However, the initial Mediterranean SL method did not resolve sea-level highstands during Northern Hemisphere insolation maxima, when African monsoon run-off - strongly depleted in δ18O - reached the Mediterranean. Here, we present improvements to the `marginal basin' sea-level reconstruction method. These include a new `Med-Red SL stack', which combines new probabilistic Mediterranean and Red Sea sea-level stacks spanning the last 500 ky. We also show how a box model-data comparison of water-column δ18O changes over a monsoon interval allows us to quantify the monsoon versus SL δ18O imprint on Mediterranean foraminiferal carbonate δ18O records. This paves the way for a more accurate and fully continuous SL reconstruction extending back through the Pliocene.

  5. Long-term sea level trends: Natural or anthropogenic?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Becker, M.; Karpytchev, M.; Lennartz-Sassinek, S.

    2014-08-01

    Detection and attribution of human influence on sea level rise are important topics that have not yet been explored in depth. We question whether the sea level changes (SLC) over the past century were natural in origin. SLC exhibit power law long-term correlations. By estimating Hurst exponent through Detrended Fluctuation Analysis and by applying statistics of Lennartz and Bunde, we search the lower bounds of statistically significant external sea level trends in longest tidal records worldwide. We provide statistical evidences that the observed SLC, at global and regional scales, is beyond its natural internal variability. The minimum anthropogenic sea level trend (MASLT) contributes to the observed sea level rise more than 50% in New York, Baltimore, San Diego, Marseille, and Mumbai. A MASLT is about 1 mm/yr in global sea level reconstructions that is more than half of the total observed sea level trend during the XXth century.

  6. Deglacial sea level history of the East Siberian Sea and Chukchi Sea margins

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cronin, Thomas M.; O'Regan, Matt; Pearce, Christof; Gemery, Laura; Toomey, Michael; Semiletov, Igor

    2017-01-01

    Deglacial (12.8–10.7 ka) sea level history on the East Siberian continental shelf and upper continental slope was reconstructed using new geophysical records and sediment cores taken during Leg 2 of the 2014 SWERUS-C3 expedition. The focus of this study is two cores from Herald Canyon, piston core SWERUS-L2-4-PC1 (4-PC1) and multicore SWERUS-L2-4-MC1 (4-MC1), and a gravity core from an East Siberian Sea transect, SWERUS-L2-20-GC1 (20-GC1). Cores 4-PC1 and 20-GC were taken at 120 and 115 m of modern water depth, respectively, only a few meters above the global last glacial maximum (LGM;  ∼  24 kiloannum or ka) minimum sea level of  ∼  125–130 meters below sea level (m b.s.l.). Using calibrated radiocarbon ages mainly on molluscs for chronology and the ecology of benthic foraminifera and ostracode species to estimate paleodepths, the data reveal a dominance of river-proximal species during the early part of the Younger Dryas event (YD, Greenland Stadial GS-1) followed by a rise in river-intermediate species in the late Younger Dryas or the early Holocene (Preboreal) period. A rapid relative sea level rise beginning at roughly 11.4 to 10.8 ka ( ∼  400 cm of core depth) is indicated by a sharp faunal change and unconformity or condensed zone of sedimentation. Regional sea level at this time was about 108 m b.s.l. at the 4-PC1 site and 102 m b.s.l. at 20-GC1. Regional sea level near the end of the YD was up to 42–47 m lower than predicted by geophysical models corrected for glacio-isostatic adjustment. This discrepancy could be explained by delayed isostatic adjustment caused by a greater volume and/or geographical extent of glacial-age land ice and/or ice shelves in the western Arctic Ocean and adjacent Siberian land areas.

  7. Deglacial sea level history of the East Siberian Sea and Chukchi Sea margins

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cronin, Thomas M.; O'Regan, Matt; Pearce, Christof; Gemery, Laura; Toomey, Michael; Semiletov, Igor; Jakobsson, Martin

    2017-09-01

    Deglacial (12.8-10.7 ka) sea level history on the East Siberian continental shelf and upper continental slope was reconstructed using new geophysical records and sediment cores taken during Leg 2 of the 2014 SWERUS-C3 expedition. The focus of this study is two cores from Herald Canyon, piston core SWERUS-L2-4-PC1 (4-PC1) and multicore SWERUS-L2-4-MC1 (4-MC1), and a gravity core from an East Siberian Sea transect, SWERUS-L2-20-GC1 (20-GC1). Cores 4-PC1 and 20-GC were taken at 120 and 115 m of modern water depth, respectively, only a few meters above the global last glacial maximum (LGM; ˜ 24 kiloannum or ka) minimum sea level of ˜ 125-130 meters below sea level (m b.s.l.). Using calibrated radiocarbon ages mainly on molluscs for chronology and the ecology of benthic foraminifera and ostracode species to estimate paleodepths, the data reveal a dominance of river-proximal species during the early part of the Younger Dryas event (YD, Greenland Stadial GS-1) followed by a rise in river-intermediate species in the late Younger Dryas or the early Holocene (Preboreal) period. A rapid relative sea level rise beginning at roughly 11.4 to 10.8 ka ( ˜ 400 cm of core depth) is indicated by a sharp faunal change and unconformity or condensed zone of sedimentation. Regional sea level at this time was about 108 m b.s.l. at the 4-PC1 site and 102 m b.s.l. at 20-GC1. Regional sea level near the end of the YD was up to 42-47 m lower than predicted by geophysical models corrected for glacio-isostatic adjustment. This discrepancy could be explained by delayed isostatic adjustment caused by a greater volume and/or geographical extent of glacial-age land ice and/or ice shelves in the western Arctic Ocean and adjacent Siberian land areas.

  8. Updating Maryland's sea-level rise projections

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Boesch, Donald F.; Atkinson, Larry P.; Boicourt, William C.; Boon, John D.; Cahoon, Donald R.; Dalrymple, Robert A.; Ezer, Tal; Horton, Benjamin P.; Johnson, Zoe P.; Kopp, Robert E.; Li, Ming; Moss, Richard H.; Parris, Adam; Sommerfield, Christopher K.

    2013-01-01

    With its 3,100 miles of tidal shoreline and low-lying rural and urban lands, “The Free State” is one of the most vulnerable to sea-level rise. Historically, Marylanders have long had to contend with rising water levels along its Chesapeake Bay and Atlantic Ocean and coastal bay shores. Shorelines eroded and low-relief lands and islands, some previously inhabited, were inundated. Prior to the 20th century, this was largely due to the slow sinking of the land since Earth’s crust is still adjusting to the melting of large masses of ice following the last glacial period. Over the 20th century, however, the rate of rise of the average level of tidal waters with respect to land, or relative sea-level rise, has increased, at least partially as a result of global warming. Moreover, the scientific evidence is compelling that Earth’s climate will continue to warm and its oceans will rise even more rapidly. Recognizing the scientific consensus around global climate change, the contribution of human activities to it, and the vulnerability of Maryland’s people, property, public investments, and natural resources, Governor Martin O’Malley established the Maryland Commission on Climate Change on April 20, 2007. The Commission produced a Plan of Action that included a comprehensive climate change impact assessment, a greenhouse gas reduction strategy, and strategies for reducing Maryland’s vulnerability to climate change. The Plan has led to landmark legislation to reduce the state’s greenhouse gas emissions and a variety of state policies designed to reduce energy consumption and promote adaptation to climate change.

  9. Can salt marshes survive sea level rise ?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tambroni, N.; Seminara, G.

    2008-12-01

    Stability of salt marshes is a very delicate issue depending on the subtle interplay among hydrodynamics, morphodynamics and ecology. In fact, the elevation of the marsh platform depends essentially on three effects: i) the production of soil associated with sediments resuspended by tidal currents and wind waves in the adjacent tidal flats, advected to the marsh and settling therein; ii) production of organic sediments by the salt marsh vegetation; iii) soil 'loss' driven by sea level rise and subsidence. In order to gain insight into the mechanics of the process, we consider a schematic configuration consisting of a salt marsh located at the landward end of a tidal channel connected at the upstream end with a tidal sea, under different scenarios of sea level rise. We extend the simple 1D model for the morphodynamic evolution of a tidal channel formulated by Lanzoni and Seminara (2002, Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans, 107, C1) allowing for sediment resuspension in the channel and vegetation growth in the marsh using the depth dependent model of biomass productivity of Spartina proposed by Morris et al. (2002, Ecology, 83, pp. 2869 - 2877). We first focus on the case of a tide dominated salt marsh neglecting wind driven sediment resuspension in the shoal. Results show that the production of biomass plays a crucial role on salt marsh stability and, provided productivity is high enough, it may turn out to be sufficient to counteract the effects of sea level rise even in the absence of significant supply of mineral sediments. The additional effect of wind resuspension is then introduced. Note that the wind action is twofold: on one hand, it generates wind waves the amplitude of which is strongly dependent on shoal depth and wind fetch; on the other hand, it generates currents driven by the surface setup induced by the shear stress acting on the free surface. Here, each contribution is analysed separately. Results show that the values of bottom stress induced by

  10. Differences between mean tide level and mean sea level

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Woodworth, P. L.

    2017-01-01

    This paper discusses the differences between mean tide level (MTL) and mean sea level (MSL) as demonstrated using information from a global tide gauge data set. The roles of the two main contributors to differences between MTL and MSL (the M4 harmonic of the M2 semidiurnal tide, and the combination of the diurnal tides K1 and O1) are described, with a particular focus on the spatial scales of variation in MTL-MSL due to each contributor. Findings from the tide gauge data set are contrasted with those from a state-of-the-art global tide model. The study is of interest within tidal science, but also has practical importance regarding the type of mean level used to define land survey datums. In addition, an appreciation of MTL-MSL difference is important in the use of the historical sea level data used in climate change research, with implications for some of the data stored in international databanks. Particular studies are made of how MTL and MSL might differ through the year, and if MTL is measured in daylight hours only, as has been the practice of some national geodetic agencies on occasions in the past.

  11. Analysis of global impacts of sea-level rise: a case study of flooding

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nicholls, Robert J.

    Analysis of the response to climate change and sea-level rise requires a link from climate change science to the resulting impacts and their policy implications. This paper explores the impacts of sea-level rise, particularly increased coastal flooding due to storm surges. In particular, it asks the simple question “how much will projected global sea-level rise exacerbate coastal flood problems, if ignored?” This is an important question to the intergovernmental process considering climate change. Further many countries presently ignore sea-level rise in long-term coastal planning, even though global sea levels are presently slowly rising. Using the model of Nicholls et al. [Global Environmental Change 9 (1999) S69], the analysis considers the flood impacts of sea-level rise on an “IS92a world” based on a consistent set of scenarios of global-mean sea-level rise, subsidence (where appropriate), coastal population change (usually increase), and flood defence standards (derived from GDP/capita). Two of the protection scenarios consider the possible upgrade of flood defences, but no allowance for global-mean sea-level rise is allowed to ensure consistency with the question being investigated. This model has been validated against national- and regional-scale assessments indicating that the relative results are reasonable, and the absolute results are of the right order of magnitude. The model estimates that 10 million people experienced flooding annually in 1990. It also predicts that the incidence of flooding will change without sea-level rise due to changes to the other three factors. Taking the full range of scenarios considered by 2100 the number of people flooded could be from 0.4 to 39 million/year. All the sea-level rise scenarios would cause an increase in flooding during the 21st century if measures to adapt to sea-level rise are not taken. However, there are significant uncertainties and the number of people who are estimated to experience flooding

  12. A New Method for Reconstructing Sea-Level and Deep-Sea-Temperature Variability over the Past 5.3 Million Years

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rohling, E. J.

    2014-12-01

    Ice volume (and hence sea level) and deep-sea temperature are key measures of global climate change. Sea level has been documented using several independent methods over the past 0.5 million years (Myr). Older periods, however, lack such independent validation; all existing records are related to deep-sea oxygen isotope (d18O) data that are influenced by processes unrelated to sea level. For deep-sea temperature, only one continuous high-resolution (Mg/Ca-based) record exists, with related sea-level estimates, spanning the past 1.5 Myr. We have recently presented a novel sea-level reconstruction, with associated estimates of deep-sea temperature, which independently validates the previous 0-1.5 Myr reconstruction and extends it back to 5.3 Myr ago. A serious of caveats applies to this new method, especially in older times of its application, as is always the case with new methods. Independent validation exercises are needed to elucidate where consistency exists, and where solutions drift away from each other. A key observation from our new method is that a large temporal offset existed during the onset of Plio-Pleistocene ice ages, between a marked cooling step at 2.73 Myr ago and the first major glaciation at 2.15 Myr ago. This observation relies on relative changes within the dataset, which are more robust than absolute values. I will discuss our method and its main caveats and avenues for improvement.

  13. Late Holocene relative sea level: Maine coast

    SciTech Connect

    Belknap, D.F.; Shipp, R.C.; Stuckenrath, R.

    1985-01-01

    More than 50 new radiocarbon dates from 5 primary sites along the Maine coast define local relative sea-level curves far different from those previously published, with similar shapes at each site. Salt marsh peats were collected from 7 cm diameter vibracores, allowing relatively precise depth control and large sample volume. Environments of deposition were interpreted from sediment texture, structures and macrofossil remains. Samples for dating were treated with hot NaOH to remove humic acids. Both soluble and insoluble fractions were analyzed in 25% of the samples; the remainder were treated but only the insoluble fraction was dated. Stable carbon isotopemore » ratios were measured to further identify environments and to correct the C-14 data for fractionation. Humic acids were a significant contaminant in the most basal peats, which also showed more terrestrial C-13/12 ratios. Previous studies have used radiocarbon dates, precision releveling, tide gauge data, Quaternary geologic information and archaeologic and historic patterns to suggest an along-coast downwarping to the northeast, with Eastport, Maine presently subsiding at a rate of up to 9 mm/years relative to Bangor. The five localities studied to date suggest no more than 0.3 mm/years long-term differential subsidence within the central and western parts of Maine. In particular, the long-studied Addison marsh was re-examined and the rapid 10 mm/years rates of rise were not found. Sea level rose 1.2 +/- 0.3 mm/years from 4000 years B.P. to 1500 years B.P. and ca. 0.3 mm/years from 1500 years B.P. to present. Sampling and dating at Eastport is presently underway.« less

  14. Assessment of the Absolute Excitatory Level of the Retina by Flicker ERG.

    PubMed

    Tanimoto, Naoyuki; Seeliger, Mathias W

    2018-01-01

    Electroretinography (ERG) is important for functional diagnostics of the retina. Types of information about retinal function obtainable by ERG differ depending on recording conditions, e.g., a combination of light stimulus and adaptation. In terms of stimulation, single-flash and flicker stimuli are frequently used because response properties have been well investigated, allowing an assessment of fundamental retinal functionality; for example, how photoreceptors and bipolar cells, including signal transmission between them, are affected under pathological conditions. Usually, ERGs are recorded with a nonzero lower cutoff frequency of amplifiers to avoid certain artifacts, and additionally, responses are averaged over time so that non-event-related signals are cancelled out. However, the improved signal quality is associated with a loss of information. Especially in steady-state flicker ERG, information about the absolute baseline of recordings is missing because the prestimulus baseline is not included on the recording trace as well as because a zero response is obtained in all cases in which the signal baseline stays constant for a sufficient amount of time. In other words, it is impossible to tell from the conventional flicker ERG whether a zero signal is obtained under conditions of maximal or no excitation of the visual system. In this chapter, we describe a direct current ERG protocol (featuring a lower cutoff frequency of zero) with repetitive single flashes mimicking conventional flicker that contains a defined onset. Using this recording protocol, it is possible to assess not only the absolute excitatory level of the retina but also the development of steady-state responses from the single flash response.

  15. SMN transcript levels in leukocytes of SMA patients determined by absolute real-time PCR

    PubMed Central

    Tiziano, Francesco Danilo; Pinto, Anna Maria; Fiori, Stefania; Lomastro, Rosa; Messina, Sonia; Bruno, Claudio; Pini, Antonella; Pane, Marika; D'Amico, Adele; Ghezzo, Alessandro; Bertini, Enrico; Mercuri, Eugenio; Neri, Giovanni; Brahe, Christina

    2010-01-01

    Spinal muscular atrophy (SMA) is an autosomal recessive neuromuscular disorder caused by homozygous mutations of the SMN1 gene. Three forms of SMA are recognized (type I–III) on the basis of clinical severity. All patients have at least one or more (usually 2–4) copies of a highly homologous gene (SMN2), which produces insufficient levels of functional SMN protein, because of alternative splicing of exon 7. Recently, evidence has been provided that SMN2 expression can be enhanced by pharmacological treatment. However, no reliable biomarkers are available to test the molecular efficacy of the treatments. At present, the only potential biomarker is the dosage of SMN products in peripheral blood. However, the demonstration that SMN full-length (SMN-fl) transcript levels are reduced in leukocytes of patients compared with controls remains elusive (except for type I). We have developed a novel assay based on absolute real-time PCR, which allows the quantification of SMN1-fl/SMN2-fl transcripts. For the first time, we have shown that SMN-fl levels are reduced in leukocytes of type II–III patients compared with controls. We also found that transcript levels are related to clinical severity as in type III patients SMN2-fl levels are significantly higher compared with type II and directly correlated with functional ability in type II patients and with age of onset in type III patients. Moreover, in haploidentical siblings with discordant phenotype, the less severely affected individuals showed significantly higher transcript levels. Our study shows that SMN2-fl dosage in leukocytes can be considered a reliable biomarker and can provide the rationale for SMN dosage in clinical trials. PMID:19603064

  16. Reconstructing Mid- to Late Holocene sea-level change from coral microatolls, French Polynesia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hallmann, Nadine; Camoin, Gilbert; Eisenhauer, Anton; Botella, Alberic; Milne, Glenn; Vella, Claude; Samankassou, Elias; Pothin, Virginie; Dussouillez, Philippe; Fleury, Jules; Fietzke, Jan

    2017-04-01

    Coral microatolls are sensitive low-tide recorders, as their vertical accretion is limited by the mean low water springs level, and can be considered therefore as high-precision recorders of sea-level change. They are of pivotal importance to resolving the rates and amplitudes of millennial-to-century scale changes during periods of relative climate stability such as the Mid- to Late Holocene, which serves as an important baseline of natural variability prior to the industrial revolution. It provides therefore a unique opportunity to study coastal response to sea-level rise, even if the rates of sea-level rise during the Mid- to Late Holocene were lower than the current rates and those expected in the near future. Mid- to Late Holocene relative sea-level change in French Polynesia was reconstructed based on the coupling between absolute U/Th dating of in situ coral microatolls and their precise positioning via GPS RTK (Real Time Kinematic) measurements. The twelve studied islands represent ideal settings for accurate sea-level studies because: 1) they can be regarded as tectonically stable during the relevant period (slow subsidence), 2) they are located far from former ice sheets (far-field), 3) they are characterized by a low tidal amplitude, and 4) they cover a wide range of latitudes which produces significantly improved constraints on GIA (Glacial Isostatic Adjustment) model parameters. A step-like sea-level rise is evidenced between 6 and 3.9 ka leading to a short sea-level highstand of about a meter in amplitude between 3.9 and 3.6 ka. A sea-level fall, at an average rate of 0.3 mm.yr-1, is recorded between 3.6 and 1.2 ka when sea level approached its present position. In addition, growth pattern analysis of coral microatolls allows the reconstruction of low-amplitude, high-frequency sea-level change on centennial to sub-decadal time scales. The reconstructed sea-level curve extends the Tahiti last deglacial sea-level curve [Deschamps et al., 2012, Nature

  17. Timescales for detecting a significant acceleration in sea level rise

    PubMed Central

    Haigh, Ivan D.; Wahl, Thomas; Rohling, Eelco J.; Price, René M.; Pattiaratchi, Charitha B.; Calafat, Francisco M.; Dangendorf, Sönke

    2014-01-01

    There is observational evidence that global sea level is rising and there is concern that the rate of rise will increase, significantly threatening coastal communities. However, considerable debate remains as to whether the rate of sea level rise is currently increasing and, if so, by how much. Here we provide new insights into sea level accelerations by applying the main methods that have been used previously to search for accelerations in historical data, to identify the timings (with uncertainties) at which accelerations might first be recognized in a statistically significant manner (if not apparent already) in sea level records that we have artificially extended to 2100. We find that the most important approach to earliest possible detection of a significant sea level acceleration lies in improved understanding (and subsequent removal) of interannual to multidecadal variability in sea level records. PMID:24728012

  18. An Ongoing Shift in Pacific Ocean Sea Level

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cheon, S. H.; Hamlington, B.; Thompson, P. R.; Merrifield, M. A.; Nerem, R. S.; Leben, R. R.; Kim, K. Y.

    2016-12-01

    According to the satellite altimeter data, local sea level trends have shown considerable diversity spatially as well as temporally. In particular, dramatic changes in sea level in the Pacific have been observed throughout the altimeter record, with high trends in the western tropical Pacific (WTP) and comparatively lower trends in the eastern Pacific. In recent years, however, a shift appears to be occurring, with falling trends in the (WTP) and rising trends in the eastern tropical and northeastern Pacific (ETP and NEP). From a planning perspective, it is important to figure out whether these sharp changes are part of a short-term shift or the beginning of a longer-term change in sea level. In this study, we distinguish the origins of the recent shift in Pacific Ocean sea level. Cyclostationary empirical orthogonal function (CSEOF) analysis is applied to separate the properties of the recent sea level change in the Pacific Ocean. From the CSEOF analysis results, we point out two dominant modes of sea level shift in the Pacific Ocean. The first mode is related to the biennial oscillation associated with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the other is related to lower-frequency variability with a strong signal in the northern Pacific. Considering a relatively high correlation between recent sea level change and the low-frequency mode, we suggest that the low-frequency mode has played a dominant role in the sea level shift in the Pacific Ocean. Using a reconstructed sea level dataset, we examine the variability of this low-frequency mode in the past, and find similar periods of dramatic sea level change in the Pacific. Based on the sea level record of the last five years and according to the analysis, we conclude that in the coming decades, higher sea level trends off the U.S. West Coast should be expected, while reduced trends in the WTP will likely be observed.

  19. Global sea level trend in the past century

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gornitz, V.; Lebedeff, S.; Hansen, J.

    1982-01-01

    Data derived from tide-gauge stations throughout the world indicate that the mean sea level rose by about 12 centimeters in the past century. The sea level change has a high correlation with the trend of global surface air temperature. A large part of the sea level rise can be accounted for in terms of the thermal expansion of the upper layers of the ocean. The results also represent weak indirect evidence for a net melting of the continental ice sheets.

  20. The Adriatic Sea: A Long-Standing Laboratory for Sea Level Studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vilibić, Ivica; Šepić, Jadranka; Pasarić, Mira; Orlić, Mirko

    2017-10-01

    The paper provides a comprehensive review of all aspects of Adriatic Sea level research covered by the literature. It discusses changes occurring over millennial timescales and documented by a variety of natural and man-made proxies and post-glacial rebound models; mean sea level changes occurring over centennial to annual timescales and measured by modern instruments; and daily and higher-frequency changes (with periods ranging from minutes to a day) that are contributing to sea level extremes and are relevant for present-day flooding of coastal areas. Special tribute is paid to the historic sea level studies that shaped modern sea level research in the Adriatic, followed by a discussion of existing in situ and remote sensing observing systems operating in the Adriatic area, operational forecasting systems for Adriatic storm surges, as well as warning systems for tsunamis and meteotsunamis. Projections and predictions of sea level and related hazards are also included in the review. Based on this review, open issues and research gaps in the Adriatic Sea level studies are identified, as well as the additional research efforts needed to fill the gaps. The Adriatic Sea, thus, remains a laboratory for coastal sea level studies for semi-enclosed, coastal and marginal seas in the world ocean.

  1. The social values at risk from sea-level rise

    SciTech Connect

    Graham, Sonia, E-mail: sonia.graham@unimelb.edu.au; Barnett, Jon, E-mail: jbarn@unimelb.edu.au; Fincher, Ruth, E-mail: r.fincher@unimelb.edu.au

    Analysis of the risks of sea-level rise favours conventionally measured metrics such as the area of land that may be subsumed, the numbers of properties at risk, and the capital values of assets at risk. Despite this, it is clear that there exist many less material but no less important values at risk from sea-level rise. This paper re-theorises these multifarious social values at risk from sea-level rise, by explaining their diverse nature, and grounding them in the everyday practices of people living in coastal places. It is informed by a review and analysis of research on social values frommore » within the fields of social impact assessment, human geography, psychology, decision analysis, and climate change adaptation. From this we propose that it is the ‘lived values’ of coastal places that are most at risk from sea-level rise. We then offer a framework that groups these lived values into five types: those that are physiological in nature, and those that relate to issues of security, belonging, esteem, and self-actualisation. This framework of lived values at risk from sea-level rise can guide empirical research investigating the social impacts of sea-level rise, as well as the impacts of actions to adapt to sea-level rise. It also offers a basis for identifying the distribution of related social outcomes across populations exposed to sea-level rise or sea-level rise policies.« less

  2. Detecting anthropogenic footprints in sea level rise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dangendorf, Sönke; Marcos, Marta; Müller, Alfred; Zorita, Eduardo; Riva, Riccardo; Berk, Kevin; Jensen, Jürgen

    2015-07-01

    While there is scientific consensus that global and local mean sea level (GMSL and LMSL) has risen since the late nineteenth century, the relative contribution of natural and anthropogenic forcing remains unclear. Here we provide a probabilistic upper range of long-term persistent natural GMSL/LMSL variability (P=0.99), which in turn, determines the minimum/maximum anthropogenic contribution since 1900. To account for different spectral characteristics of various contributing processes, we separate LMSL into two components: a slowly varying volumetric component and a more rapidly changing atmospheric component. We find that the persistence of slow natural volumetric changes is underestimated in records where transient atmospheric processes dominate the spectrum. This leads to a local underestimation of possible natural trends of up to ~1 mm per year erroneously enhancing the significance of anthropogenic footprints. The GMSL, however, remains unaffected by such biases. On the basis of a model assessment of the separate components, we conclude that it is virtually certain (P=0.99) that at least 45% of the observed increase in GMSL is of anthropogenic origin.

  3. Inception of a global atlas of Holocene sea levels

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khan, Nicole; Rovere, Alessio; Engelhart, Simon; Horton, Benjamin

    2017-04-01

    Determining the rates, mechanisms and geographic variability of sea-level change is a priority science question for the next decade of ocean research. To address these research priorities, the HOLocene SEA-level variability (HOLSEA) working group is developing the first standardized global synthesis of Holocene relative sea-level data to: (1) estimate the magnitudes and rates of global mean sea-level change during the Holocene; and (2) identify trends in spatial variability and decipher the processes responsible for geographic differences in relative sea-level change. Here we present the preliminary efforts of the working group to compile the database, which includes sea-level index points and limiting data from a range of different indicators across seven continents from the Last Glacial Maximum to present. We follow a standard protocol that incorporates full consideration of vertical and temporal uncertainty for each sea-level index point, including uncertainties associated with the relationship of each indicator to past sea-level and the methods used to date each indicator. We describe the composition of the global database, identify gaps in data availability, and highlight our effort to create an online platform to access the data. These data will be made available in a special issue of Quaternary Science Reviews and archived on NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) in early 2018. We also invite researchers who collect or model Holocene sea-level data to participate. Long-term, this effort will enhance predictions of 21st century sea-level rise, and provide a vital contribution to the assessment of natural hazards with respect to sea-level rise and coastal response.

  4. A search for scale in sea-level studies

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Larsen, C.E.; Clark, I.

    2006-01-01

    Many researchers assume a proportional relationship among the atmospheric CO2 concentration, temperature, and sea level. Thus, the rate of sea-level rise should increase in concert with the documented exponential increase in CO2. Although sea surface temperature has increased in places over the past century and short-term sea level rose abruptly during the 1990s, it is difficult to demonstrate a proportional relationship using existing geologic or historic records. Tide gauge records in the United States cover too short a time interval to verify acceleration in the rate of sea-level rise, although multicentury tide gauge and staff records from the Netherlands and Sweden suggest a mid-19th-century acceleration in sea-level rise. Reconstructions of sea-level changes for the past 1000 years derived using benthic foraminifer data from salt marshes along the East Coast of the United States suggest an increased rate of relative sea-level rise beginning in the 1600s. Geologic records of relative sea-level rise for the past 6000 years are available for several sites along the US East Coast from 14C-dated basal peat below salt marshes and estuarine sediments. When these three scales of sea-level variation are integrated, adjusted for postglacial isostatic movement, and replotted, the range of variation in sea level suggested by basal peat ages is within ??1 meter of the long-term trend. The reconstruction from Long Island Sound data shows a linear rise in sea level beginning in the mid-1600s at a rate consistent with the historic record of mean high water. Long-term tide gauge records from Europe and North America show similar trends since the mid-19th century. There is no clear proportional exponential increase in the rate of sea-level rise. If proportionality exists among sea level, atmospheric CO2, and temperature, there may be a significant time lag before an anthropogenic increase in the rate of sea-level rise occurs.

  5. Easy Absolute Values? Absolutely

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Taylor, Sharon E.; Mittag, Kathleen Cage

    2015-01-01

    The authors teach a problem-solving course for preservice middle-grades education majors that includes concepts dealing with absolute-value computations, equations, and inequalities. Many of these students like mathematics and plan to teach it, so they are adept at symbolic manipulations. Getting them to think differently about a concept that they…

  6. Understanding extreme sea levels for coastal impact and adaptation analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wahl, T.; Haigh, I. D.; Nicholls, R. J.; Arns, A.; Hinkel, J.; Dangendorf, S.; Slangen, A.

    2016-12-01

    Coastal impact and adaptation assessments require detailed knowledge on extreme sea levels, because increasing damage due to extreme events, such as storm surges and tropical cyclones, is one of the major consequences of sea level rise and climate change. In fact, the IPCC has highlighted in its AR4 report that "societal impacts of sea level change primarily occur via the extreme levels rather than as a direct consequence of mean sea level changes". Over the last few decades, substantial research efforts have been directed towards improved understanding of past and future mean sea level; different scenarios were developed with process-based or semi-empirical models and used for coastal impact assessments at various spatial scales to guide coastal management and adaptation efforts. The uncertainties in future sea level rise are typically accounted for by analyzing the impacts associated with a range of scenarios leading to a vertical displacement of the distribution of extreme sea-levels. And indeed most regional and global studies find little or no evidence for changes in storminess with climate change, although there is still low confidence in the results. However, and much more importantly, there is still a limited understanding of present-day extreme sea-levels which is largely ignored in most impact and adaptation analyses. The two key uncertainties stem from: (1) numerical models that are used to generate long time series of extreme sea-levels. The bias of these models varies spatially and can reach values much larger than the expected sea level rise; but it can be accounted for in most regions making use of in-situ measurements; (2) Statistical models used for determining present-day extreme sea-level exceedance probabilities. There is no universally accepted approach to obtain such values for flood risk assessments and while substantial research has explored inter-model uncertainties for mean sea level, we explore here, for the first time, inter

  7. Separating decadal global water cycle variability from sea level rise.

    PubMed

    Hamlington, B D; Reager, J T; Lo, M-H; Karnauskas, K B; Leben, R R

    2017-04-20

    Under a warming climate, amplification of the water cycle and changes in precipitation patterns over land are expected to occur, subsequently impacting the terrestrial water balance. On global scales, such changes in terrestrial water storage (TWS) will be reflected in the water contained in the ocean and can manifest as global sea level variations. Naturally occurring climate-driven TWS variability can temporarily obscure the long-term trend in sea level rise, in addition to modulating the impacts of sea level rise through natural periodic undulation in regional and global sea level. The internal variability of the global water cycle, therefore, confounds both the detection and attribution of sea level rise. Here, we use a suite of observations to quantify and map the contribution of TWS variability to sea level variability on decadal timescales. In particular, we find that decadal sea level variability centered in the Pacific Ocean is closely tied to low frequency variability of TWS in key areas across the globe. The unambiguous identification and clean separation of this component of variability is the missing step in uncovering the anthropogenic trend in sea level and understanding the potential for low-frequency modulation of future TWS impacts including flooding and drought.

  8. Sea level oscillations over minute timescales: a global perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vilibic, Ivica; Sepic, Jadranka

    2016-04-01

    Sea level oscillations occurring over minutes to a few hours are an important contributor to sea level extremes, and a knowledge on their behaviour is essential for proper quantification of coastal marine hazards. Tsunamis, meteotsunamis, infra-gravity waves and harbour oscillations may even dominate sea level extremes in certain areas and thus pose a great danger for humans and coastal infrastructure. Aside for tsunamis, which are, due to their enormous impact to the coastlines, a well-researched phenomena, the importance of other high-frequency oscillations to the sea level extremes is still underrated, as no systematic long-term measurements have been carried out at a minute timescales. Recently, Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) established Sea Level Monitoring Facility portal (http://www.ioc-sealevelmonitoring.org), making 1-min sea level data publicly available for several hundred tide gauge sites in the World Ocean. Thereafter, a global assessment of oscillations over tsunami timescales become possible; however, the portal contains raw sea level data only, being unchecked for spikes, shifts, drifts and other malfunctions of instruments. We present a quality assessment of these data, estimates of sea level variances and contributions of high-frequency processes to the extremes throughout the World Ocean. This is accompanied with assessment of atmospheric conditions and processes which generate intense high-frequency oscillations.

  9. Improvements in Ice-Sheet Sea-Level Projections

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shepherd, Andrew; Nowicki, Sophie

    2017-01-01

    Ice losses from Antarctica and Greenland are the largest uncertainty in sea-level projections. Nevertheless, improvements in ice-sheet models over recent decades have led to closer agreement with satellite observations, keeping track with their increasing contribution to global sea-level rise.

  10. Does Sea Level Change when a Floating Iceberg Melts?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lan, Boon Leong

    2010-01-01

    On the answer page to a recent "Figuring Physics" question, the cute mouse asks another question: "Does the [sea] water level change if the iceberg melts?" The conventional answer is "no." However, in this paper I will show through a simple analysis involving Archimedes' principle that the sea level will rise. The analysis shows the wrong…

  11. Sea-level Variation Along the Suez Canal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eid, F. M.; Sharaf El-Din, S. H.; Alam El-Din, K. A.

    1997-05-01

    The variation of sea level at 11 stations distributed along the Suez Canal was studied during the period from 1980 to 1986. The ranges of variation in daily mean sea level at Port Said and Port Tawfik are about 60 and 120 cm, respectively. The minimum range of daily variation is at Kantara (47 cm). The fluctuations of the monthly mean sea level between the two ends of the Suez Canal vary from one season to another. From July to December, the sea level at Port Said is higher than that at Port Tawfik, with the maximum difference (10·5 cm) in September. During the rest of the year, the mean sea level at Port Tawfik is higher than that at Port Said, with the maximum difference (31·5 cm) in March. The long-term variations of the annual mean sea level at both Port Said and Port Tawfik for the period from 1923 to 1986 showed a positive trend. The sea level at Port Said increased by about 27·8 cm century -1while it increased by only 9·1 cm century -1at Port Tawfik. This indicates that the difference between sea level at Port Said and Port Tawfik has decreased with time.

  12. Glacial Isostatic Adjustment and Contemporary Sea Level Rise: An Overview

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spada, Giorgio

    2017-01-01

    Glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) encompasses a suite of geophysical phenomena accompanying the waxing and waning of continental-scale ice sheets. These involve the solid Earth, the oceans and the cryosphere both on short (decade to century) and on long (millennia) timescales. In the framework of contemporary sea-level change, the role of GIA is particular. In fact, among the processes significantly contributing to contemporary sea-level change, GIA is the only one for which deformational, gravitational and rotational effects are simultaneously operating, and for which the rheology of the solid Earth is essential. Here, I review the basic elements of the GIA theory, emphasizing the connections with current sea-level changes observed by tide gauges and altimetry. This purpose is met discussing the nature of the "sea-level equation" (SLE), which represents the basis for modeling the sea-level variations of glacial isostatic origin, also giving access to a full set of geodetic variations associated with GIA. Here, the SLE is employed to characterize the remarkable geographical variability of the GIA-induced sea-level variations, which are often expressed in terms of "fingerprints". Using harmonic analysis, the spatial variability of the GIA fingerprints is compared to that of other components of contemporary sea-level change. In closing, some attention is devoted to the importance of the "GIA corrections" in the context of modern sea-level observations, based on tide gauges or satellite altimeters.

  13. Continuous assimilation of simulated Geosat altimetric sea level into an eddy-resolving numerical ocean model. I - Sea level differences. II - Referenced sea level differences

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    White, Warren B.; Tai, Chang-Kou; Holland, William R.

    1990-01-01

    The optimal interpolation method of Lorenc (1981) was used to conduct continuous assimilation of altimetric sea level differences from the simulated Geosat exact repeat mission (ERM) into a three-layer quasi-geostrophic eddy-resolving numerical ocean box model that simulates the statistics of mesoscale eddy activity in the western North Pacific. Assimilation was conducted continuously as the Geosat tracks appeared in simulated real time/space, with each track repeating every 17 days, but occurring at different times and locations within the 17-day period, as would have occurred in a realistic nowcast situation. This interpolation method was also used to conduct the assimilation of referenced altimetric sea level differences into the same model, performing the referencing of altimetric sea sevel differences by using the simulated sea level. The results of this dynamical interpolation procedure are compared with those of a statistical (i.e., optimum) interpolation procedure.

  14. Eustatic sea level fluctuations induced by polar wander

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sabadini, Roberto; Doglioni, Carlo; Yuen, David A.

    1990-01-01

    It is shown here that polar wander of a viscoelastic, stratified earth can induce global sea level fluctuations comparable to the short-term component in eustatic sea-level curves. The sign of these fluctuations, which are very sensitive to the rheological stratification, depends on the geographical location of the observation point; rises and falls in sea level can thus be coeval in different parts of the world. This finding is a distinct contrast to the main assumption underlying the reconstruction of eustatic curves, namely that global sea-level events produce the same depositional sequence everywhere. It is proposed that polar wander should be added to the list of geophysical mechanisms that can control the third-order cycles in sea level.

  15. Sea level data and techniques for detecting vertical crustal movements

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lennon, G. W.

    1978-01-01

    An attempt is made to survey problems, requirements, and the outlook for the future in the study of sea level time series so as to determine the relative movement of land and sea levels. The basic aim is to eliminate from the record the contributions from whatever marine dynamic phenomena respond to treatment, allowing the secular element to be identified with optimum clarity. Nevertheless the concept of sea level perturbation varies according to regional experience. The recent work of the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level helps to eliminate geodetic noise from the series and makes it possible, perhaps, to treat the global mean sea level data bank so as to define eustatic changes in ocean volume which, in the present context, may be regarded as the final goal, allowing the identification of vertical crustal motion itself.

  16. Heinrich events and sea level changes: records from uplifted coral terraces and marginal seas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yokoyama, Y.; Esat, T. M.; Suga, H.; Obrochta, S.; Ohkouchi, N.

    2017-12-01

    Repeated major ice discharge events spaced every ca.7,000 years during the last ice age was first detected in deep sea sediments from North Atlantic. Characterized as lithic layers, these Heinrich Events (Heinrich, 1988 QR) correspond to rapid climate changes attributed to weakened ocean circulation (eg., Broecker, 1994 Nature; Alley, 1998 Nature) as shown by a number of different proxies. A better understanding of the overall picture of Heinrich events would benefit from determining the total amount of ice involved each event, which is still under debate. Sea level records are the most direct means for that, and uranium series dated corals can constrain the timing precisely. However, averaged global sea level during the time of interest was around -70m, hindering study from tectonically stable regions. Using uplifted coral terraces that extend 80 km along the Huon Peninsula, Papua New Guinea, the magnitude of sea level change during Heinrich Events was successfully reconstructed (Yokoyama et al., 2001 EPSL; Chappell et al., 1996 EPSL; Cutler et al., 2003). The H3 and H5 events are also well correlated with continuous sea level reconstructions using Red Sea oxygen isotope records (Siddall et al., 2003 Nature; Yokoyama and Esat, 2011Oceanography). Global ice sheet growth after 30 ka complicates interpretation of the Huon Peninsula record. However oxygen isotope data from the Japan Sea, a restricted margin sea with a shallow sill depth similar to the Red Sea, clearly captures the episode of H2 sea level change. The timing of these sea level excursions correlate well to the DSDP Site 609 detrital layers that are anchored in the latest Greenland ice core chronology (Obrochta et al., 2012 QSR). In the presentation, Antarctic ice sheet behavior during the H2 event will also be discussed using marginal seas oxygen records.

  17. Reconstructing Mid- to Late Holocene Sea-Level Change from Coral Microatolls, French Polynesia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hallmann, N.; Camoin, G.; Eisenhauer, A.; Vella, C.; Samankassou, E.; Botella, A.; Milne, G. A.; Pothin, V.; Dussouillez, P.; Fleury, J.

    2017-12-01

    Coral microatolls are sensitive low-tide recorders, as their vertical accretion is limited by the mean low water springs level, and can be considered therefore as high-precision recorders of sea-level change. They are of pivotal importance to resolving the rates and amplitudes of millennial-to-century scale changes during periods of relative climate stability such as the Mid- to Late Holocene, which serves as an important baseline of natural variability prior to the Anthropocene. It provides therefore a unique opportunity to study coastal response to sea-level rise, even if the rates of sea-level rise during the Mid- to Late Holocene were lower than the current rates and those expected in the near future. Mid- to Late Holocene relative sea-level changes in French Polynesia encompassing the last 6,000 years were reconstructed based on the coupling between absolute U/Th dating of in situ coral microatolls and their precise positioning via GPS RTK (Real Time Kinematic) measurements. The twelve studied islands represent ideal settings for accurate sea-level studies because: 1) they can be regarded as tectonically stable during the relevant period (slow subsidence), 2) they are located far from former ice sheets (far-field), 3) they are characterized by a low tidal amplitude, and 4) they cover a wide range of latitudes which produces significantly improved constraints on GIA (Glacial Isostatic Adjustment) model parameters. A sea-level rise of less than 1 m is recorded between 6 and 3-3.5 ka, and is followed by a gradual fall in sea level that started around 2.5 ka and persisted until the past few centuries. In addition, growth pattern analysis of coral microatolls allows the reconstruction of low-amplitude, high-frequency sea-level change on centennial to sub-decadal time scales. The reconstructed sea-level curve extends the Tahiti last deglacial sea-level curve [Deschamps et al., 2012, Nature, 483, 559-564], and is in good agreement with a geophysical model tuned to

  18. Reconstructing Mid- to Late Holocene sea-level change from coral microatolls, French Polynesia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hallmann, N.; Camoin, G.; Eisenhauer, A.; Vella, C.; Samankassou, E.; Botella, A.; Milne, G. A.; Pothin, V.; Dussouillez, P.; Fleury, J.

    2016-12-01

    Coral microatolls are sensitive low-tide recorders, as their vertical accretion is limited by the mean low water springs level, and can be considered therefore as high-precision recorders of sea-level change. They are of pivotal importance to resolving the rates and amplitudes of millennial-to-century scale changes during periods of relative climate stability such as the Mid- to Late Holocene, which serves as an important baseline of natural variability prior to the industrial revolution. It provides therefore a unique opportunity to study coastal response to sea-level rise, even if the rates of sea-level rise during the Mid- to Late Holocene were lower than the current rates and those expected in the near future. Mid- to Late Holocene relative sea-level change in French Polynesia was reconstructed based on the coupling between absolute U/Th dating of in situ coral microatolls and their precise positioning via GPS RTK (Real Time Kinematic) measurements. The twelve studied islands represent ideal settings for accurate sea-level studies because: 1) they can be regarded as tectonically stable during the relevant period (slow subsidence), 2) they are located far from former ice sheets (far-field), 3) they are characterized by a low tidal amplitude, and 4) they cover a wide range of latitudes which produces significantly improved constraints on GIA (Glacial Isostatic Adjustment) model parameters. A sea-level rise of less than 1 m is recorded between 6 and 3-3.5 ka, and is followed by a gradual fall in sea level that started around 2.5 ka and persisted until the past few centuries. In addition, growth pattern analysis of coral microatolls allows the reconstruction of low-amplitude, high-frequency sea-level change on centennial to sub-decadal time scales. The reconstructed sea-level curve extends the Tahiti last deglacial sea-level curve [Deschamps et al., 2012, Nature, 483, 559-564], and is in good agreement with a geophysical model tuned to fit far-field deglacial

  19. Mid- to Late Holocene Sea-Level Record in French Polynesia, South-Central Pacific

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hallmann, N.; Camoin, G.; Vella, C.; Eisenhauer, A.; Samankassou, E.; Botella, A.; Milne, G. A.; Fietzke, J.; Dussouillez, P.; Plaine, J.

    2014-12-01

    The Mid- to Late Holocene provides the opportunity to study the coastal response to sea-level change that has a similar amplitude (i.e., a few decimetres up to 1 m) to the sea-level rise that is likely to occur before the end of the current century. Furthermore, this time period provides an important baseline of natural climate variability prior to the industrial revolution. This study aims to reconstruct Mid- to Late Holocene relative sea-level change in French Polynesia by examining coral reef records from ten islands, which represent ideal settings for accurate sea-level change studies because: 1) they can be regarded as tectonically stable during the relevant period (slow subsidence), 2) they are located far from former ice sheets ('far-field'), 3) they are characterized by a low tidal amplitude, and 4) they cover a wide range of latitudes which produces significantly improved constraints on GIA (Glacial Isostatic Adjustment) model parameters. The accurate reconstruction of sea-level change relies on absolute U/Th dating of in situ coral colonies and their accurate positioning via GPS RTK (Real Time Kinematic) measurements with a vertical and horizontal precision of ± 2.5 cm and ~1 cm, respectively. We focus mainly on the analysis of coral microatolls, which are sensitive low-tide recorders, as their vertical accretion is limited by the water level. Their growth patterns allow the reconstruction of low-amplitude and high-frequency sea-level changes on centennial to sub-decadal time scales. A sea-level rise of less than ~1 m is documented between 6 and 3-3.5 ka, and is followed by a gradual fall in sea level that started around 2 ka and persisted until the past few centuries. The reconstructed sea-level curve therefore extends the Tahiti sea-level curve [Deschamps et al., 2012, Nature, 483, 559-564], and is in good agreement with a geophysical model tuned to fit far-field deglacial records [Bassett et al., 2005, Science, 309, 925-928].

  20. Sea level rise and variability around Peninsular Malaysia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tkalich, Pavel; Luu, Quang-Hung; Tay, Tze-Wei

    2014-05-01

    Peninsular Malaysia is bounded from the west by Malacca Strait and the Andaman Sea, both connected to the Indian Ocean, and from the east by South China Sea being largest marginal sea in the Pacific Basin. As a result, sea level along Peninsular Malaysia coast is assumed to be governed by various regional phenomena associated with the adjacent parts of the Indian and Pacific Oceans. At annual scale, sea level anomalies (SLAs) are generated by the Asian monsoon; interannual sea level variability is determined by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD); whilst long term sea level trend is coordinated by the global climate change. To quantify the relative impacts of these multi-scale phenomena on sea level trend and variability surrounding the Peninsular Malaysia, long-term tide gauge record and satellite altimetry are used. During 1984-2011, relative sea level rise (SLR) rates in waters of Malacca Strait and eastern Peninsular Malaysia are found to be 2.4 ± 0.8 mm/yr and 2.7 ± 0.6 mm/yr, respectively. Discounting for their vertical land movements (0.8 ± 2.6 mm/yr and 0.9 ± 2.2 mm/yr, respectively), their pure SLR rates are 1.6 ± 3.4 mm/yr and 1.8 ± 2.8 mm/yr, respectively, which are lower than the global tendency. At interannual scale, ENSO affects sea level over the Malaysian east coast in the range of ± 5 cm with very high correlation coefficient. Meanwhile, IOD modulates sea level anomalies in the Malacca Strait in the range of ± 2 cm with high correlation coefficient. Interannual regional sea level drops are associated with El Niño events and positive phases of the IOD index; while the rises are correlated with La Niña episodes and the negative periods of the IOD index. Seasonally, SLAs are mainly monsoon-driven, in the order of 10-25 cm. Geographically, sea level responds differently to the monsoon: two cycles per year are observed in the Malacca Strait, presumably due to South Asian - Indian Monsoon; while single

  1. Decadal sea level variability in the East China Sea linked to the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moon, Jae-Hong; Song, Y. Tony

    2017-07-01

    In view of coastal community's need for adapting to sea level rise (SLR), understanding and predicting regional variability on decadal to longer time scales still remain a challenging issue in SLR research. Here, we have examined the low-frequency sea level signals in the East China Sea (ECS) from the 50-year hindcast of a non-Boussinesq ocean model in comparison with data sets from altimeters, tide-gauges, and steric sea level produced by in-situ profiles. It is shown that the mean sea levels in the ECS represent significant decadal fluctuations over the past 50 years, with a multi-decadal trend shift since the mid-1980s compared to the preceding 30 years. The decadal fluctuations in sea level are more closely linked to the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) rather than the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, which reflects the multi-decadal trend shift. A composite analysis indicates that wind patterns associated with the NPGO is shown to control the decadal variability of the western subtropical North Pacific. A positive NPGO corresponds to cyclonic wind stress curl anomaly in the western subtropical regions that results in a higher sea level in the ECS, particularly along the continental shelf, and lower sea levels off the ECS. The reverse occurs in years of negative NPGO.

  2. Uncovering the Anthropogenic Sea Level Change using an Improved Sea Level Reconstruction for the Indian Ocean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kumar, P.; Hamlington, B.; Thompson, P. R.; Han, W.

    2016-12-01

    Despite having some of the world's most densely populated and vulnerable coastal regions, sea level (SL) variability in the Indian Ocean (IO) has received considerably less attention than the Pacific Ocean. Differentiating the internal variability from the long-term trend in global mean sea level (GMSL) at decadal time-scales is vital for planning and mitigation efforts in the IO region. Understanding the dynamics of internal and anthropogenic SL change is essential for understanding the dynamic pathways that link the IO basin to terrestrial climates world-wide. With a sparse pre-satellite observational record of the IO, the Indo-Pacific internal climate variability is difficult to represent accurately. However, an improved representation of pre-satellite SL variability can be achieved by using a multivariate reconstruction technique. By using cyclostationary empirical orthogonal functions (CSEOFs) that can capture time-varying spatial patterns, gaps in the historical record when observations are sparse are filled using spatial relationships from time periods when the observational network is dense. This reconstruction method combines SL data and sea surface temperature (SST) to create a SL reconstruction that spans a period from 1900 to present, long enough to study climate signals over interannual to decadal time scales. This study aims at estimating the component of SL rise that relates to anthropogenic forcing by identifying and removing the fraction related to internal variability. An improved understanding of how the internal climate variability can affect the IO SL trend and variability, will provide an insight into the future SL changes. It is also important to study links between SL and climate variability in the past to understand how SL will respond to similar climatic events in the future and if this response will be influenced by the changing climate.

  3. Global mapping of nonseismic sea level oscillations at tsunami timescales.

    PubMed

    Vilibić, Ivica; Šepić, Jadranka

    2017-01-18

    Present investigations of sea level extremes are based on hourly data measured at coastal tide gauges. The use of hourly data restricts existing global and regional analyses to periods larger than 2 h. However, a number of processes occur at minute timescales, of which the most ruinous are tsunamis. Meteotsunamis, hazardous nonseismic waves that occur at tsunami timescales over limited regions, may also locally dominate sea level extremes. Here, we show that nonseismic sea level oscillations at tsunami timescales (<2 h) may substantially contribute to global sea level extremes, up to 50% in low-tidal basins. The intensity of these oscillations is zonally correlated with mid-tropospheric winds at the 99% significance level, with the variance doubling from the tropics and subtropics to the mid-latitudes. Specific atmospheric patterns are found during strong events at selected locations in the World Ocean, indicating a globally predominant generation mechanism. Our analysis suggests that these oscillations should be considered in sea level hazard assessment studies. Establishing a strong correlation between nonseismic sea level oscillations at tsunami timescales and atmospheric synoptic patterns would allow for forecasting of nonseismic sea level oscillations for operational use, as well as hindcasting and projection of their effects under past, present and future climates.

  4. Global mapping of nonseismic sea level oscillations at tsunami timescales

    PubMed Central

    Vilibić, Ivica; Šepić, Jadranka

    2017-01-01

    Present investigations of sea level extremes are based on hourly data measured at coastal tide gauges. The use of hourly data restricts existing global and regional analyses to periods larger than 2 h. However, a number of processes occur at minute timescales, of which the most ruinous are tsunamis. Meteotsunamis, hazardous nonseismic waves that occur at tsunami timescales over limited regions, may also locally dominate sea level extremes. Here, we show that nonseismic sea level oscillations at tsunami timescales (<2 h) may substantially contribute to global sea level extremes, up to 50% in low-tidal basins. The intensity of these oscillations is zonally correlated with mid-tropospheric winds at the 99% significance level, with the variance doubling from the tropics and subtropics to the mid-latitudes. Specific atmospheric patterns are found during strong events at selected locations in the World Ocean, indicating a globally predominant generation mechanism. Our analysis suggests that these oscillations should be considered in sea level hazard assessment studies. Establishing a strong correlation between nonseismic sea level oscillations at tsunami timescales and atmospheric synoptic patterns would allow for forecasting of nonseismic sea level oscillations for operational use, as well as hindcasting and projection of their effects under past, present and future climates. PMID:28098195

  5. Improving sea level simulation in Mediterranean regional climate models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Adloff, Fanny; Jordà, Gabriel; Somot, Samuel; Sevault, Florence; Arsouze, Thomas; Meyssignac, Benoit; Li, Laurent; Planton, Serge

    2017-08-01

    For now, the question about future sea level change in the Mediterranean remains a challenge. Previous climate modelling attempts to estimate future sea level change in the Mediterranean did not meet a consensus. The low resolution of CMIP-type models prevents an accurate representation of important small scales processes acting over the Mediterranean region. For this reason among others, the use of high resolution regional ocean modelling has been recommended in literature to address the question of ongoing and future Mediterranean sea level change in response to climate change or greenhouse gases emissions. Also, it has been shown that east Atlantic sea level variability is the dominant driver of the Mediterranean variability at interannual and interdecadal scales. However, up to now, long-term regional simulations of the Mediterranean Sea do not integrate the full sea level information from the Atlantic, which is a substantial shortcoming when analysing Mediterranean sea level response. In the present study we analyse different approaches followed by state-of-the-art regional climate models to simulate Mediterranean sea level variability. Additionally we present a new simulation which incorporates improved information of Atlantic sea level forcing at the lateral boundary. We evaluate the skills of the different simulations in the frame of long-term hindcast simulations spanning from 1980 to 2012 analysing sea level variability from seasonal to multidecadal scales. Results from the new simulation show a substantial improvement in the modelled Mediterranean sea level signal. This confirms that Mediterranean mean sea level is strongly influenced by the Atlantic conditions, and thus suggests that the quality of the information in the lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) is crucial for the good modelling of Mediterranean sea level. We also found that the regional differences inside the basin, that are induced by circulation changes, are model-dependent and thus not

  6. Sea level rise with warming above 2 degree

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jevrejeva, Svetlana; Jackson, Luke; Riva, Riccardo; Grinsted, Aslak; Moore, John

    2017-04-01

    Holding the increase in the global average temperature to below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C, has been agreed by the representatives of the 196 parties of United Nations, as an appropriate threshold beyond which climate change risks become unacceptably high. Sea level rise is one of the most damaging aspects of warming climate for the more than 600 million people living in low-elevation coastal areas less than 10 meters above sea level. Fragile coastal ecosystems and increasing concentrations of population and economic activity in coastal areas, are reasons why future sea level rise is one of the most damaging aspects of the warming climate. Furthermore, sea level is set to continue to rise for centuries after greenhouse gas emissions concentrations are stabilised due to system inertia and feedback time scales. Impact, risk, adaptation policies and long-term decision making in coastal areas depend on regional and local sea level rise projections and local projections can differ substantially from the global one. Here we provide probabilistic sea level rise projections for the global coastline with warming above the 2 degree goal. A warming of 2°C makes global ocean rise on average by 20 cm, but more than 90% of coastal areas will experience greater rises, 40 cm along the Atlantic coast of North America and Norway, due to ocean dynamics. If warming continues above 2°C, then by 2100 sea level will rise with speeds unprecedented throughout human civilization, reaching 0.9 m (median), and 80% of the global coastline will exceed the global ocean sea level rise upper 95% confidence limit of 1.8 m. Coastal communities of rapidly expanding cities in the developing world, small island states, and vulnerable tropical coastal ecosystems will have a very limited time after mid-century to adapt to sea level rises.

  7. Sea Level Data Archaeology for the Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bradshaw, Elizabeth; Matthews, Andy; Rickards, Lesley; Jevrejeva, Svetlana

    2015-04-01

    The Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS) was set up in 1985 to collect long term tide gauge observations and has carried out a number of data archaeology activities over the past decade, including sending member organisations questionnaires to report on their repositories. The GLOSS Group of Experts (GLOSS GE) is looking to future developments in sea level data archaeology and will provide its user community with guidance on finding, digitising, quality controlling and distributing historic records. Many records may not be held in organisational archives and may instead by in national libraries, archives and other collections. GLOSS will promote a Citizen Science approach to discovering long term records by providing tools for volunteers to report data. Tide gauge data come in two different formats, charts and hand-written ledgers. Charts are paper analogue records generated by the mechanical instrument driving a pen trace. Several GLOSS members have developed software to automatically digitise these charts and the various methods were reported in a paper on automated techniques for the digitization of archived mareograms, delivered to the GLOSS GE 13th meeting. GLOSS is creating a repository of software for scanning analogue charts. NUNIEAU is the only publically available software for digitising tide gauge charts but other organisations have developed their own tide gauge digitising software that is available internally. There are several other freely available software packages that convert image data to numerical values. GLOSS could coordinate a comparison study of the various different digitising software programs by: Sending the same charts to each organisation and asking everyone to digitise them using their own procedures Comparing the digitised data Providing recommendations to the GLOSS community The other major form of analogue sea level data is handwritten ledgers, which are usually observations of high and low waters, but sometimes contain higher

  8. Holocene relative sea level changes in Greenland: a review

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bennike, O.

    2010-12-01

    During the Holocene marked relative sea-level changes have taken place in the ice-free parts of Greenland. Already in 1776 it was reported that Thule winter houses and Norse ruins were partly inundated by the sea, and in 1962 the first emergence curve from Greenland was published. This has been followed by reconstruction of many other emergence curves. During the last ice age, large volumes of water were stored in the ice sheets. When the ice melted global sea level rose. In Greenland the ice sheet shrank in size, and the following emergence of the land surpassed the global sea level rise. Raised beach ridges, deltas and marine deposits are widespread in Greenland, and the uppermost form the marine limit, above which fresh-looking till deposits and perched boulders can be found. The marine limit has been mapped at numerous sites in Greenland, and the highest is at about 140 metres above the present sea level. In general, the marine limit is highest in those areas that were released from the largest load of ice. In other Arctic regions, well-constrained sea level curves have been constructed from dated drift-wood samples or whale bones from raised beaches. However, both driftwood and whale bones are rare in Greenland, and most curves have been developed from dated shells of bivalves. In the past years, isolation basins have increasingly been used to reconstruct sea level changes after the last deglaciation. Isolation basins are formed when the threshold of marine basins are lifted up above sea level. The use of this method requires that a series of lakes can be sampled at different elevations below the marine limit. Sampling of marine basins in shallow waters has also shown that many lakes have been inundated by the sea, and by dating the transgression horizons in the sediment sequences and by determining the depth of the sill, it is possible to work out curves for relative sea level rises during the past millennia. The global sea level has been fairly stable during

  9. Sea level change: lessons from the geologic record

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    ,

    1995-01-01

    Rising sea level is potentially one of the most serious impacts of climatic change. Even a small sea level rise would have serious economic consequences because it would cause extensive damage to the world's coastal regions. Sea level can rise in the future because the ocean surface can expand due to warming and because polar ice sheets and mountain glaciers can melt, increasing the ocean's volume of water. Today, ice caps on Antarctica and Greenland contain 91 and 8 percent of the world's ice, respectively. The world's mountain glaciers together contain only about 1 percent. Melting all this ice would raise sea level about 80 meters. Although this extreme scenario is not expected, geologists know that sea level can rise and fall rapidly due to changing volume of ice on continents. For example, during the last ice age, about 18,000 years ago, continental ice sheets contained more than double the modem volume of ice. As ice sheets melted, sea level rose 2 to 3 meters per century, and possibly faster during certain times. During periods in which global climate was very warm, polar ice was reduced and sea level was higher than today.

  10. On the relationship between sea level and Spartina alterniflora production

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kirwan, Matthew L.; Christian, Robert R.; Blum, Linda K.; Brinson, Mark M.

    2012-01-01

    A positive relationship between interannual sea level and plant growth is thought to stabilize many coastal landforms responding to accelerating rates of sea level rise. Numerical models of delta growth, tidal channel network evolution, and ecosystem resilience incorporate a hump-shaped relationship between inundation and plant primary production, where vegetation growth increases with sea level up to an optimum water depth or inundation frequency. In contrast, we use decade-long measurements of Spartina alterniflora biomass in seven coastal Virginia (USA) marshes to demonstrate that interannual sea level is rarely a primary determinant of vegetation growth. Although we find tepid support for a hump-shaped relationship between aboveground production and inundation when marshes of different elevation are considered, our results suggest that marshes high in the intertidal zone and low in relief are unresponsive to sea level fluctuations. We suggest existing models are unable to capture the behavior of wetlands in these portions of the landscape, and may underestimate their vulnerability to sea level rise because sea level rise will not be accompanied by enhanced plant growth and resultant sediment accumulation.

  11. Indo-Pacific sea level variability during recent decades

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yamanaka, G.; Tsujino, H.; Nakano, H.; Urakawa, S. L.; Sakamoto, K.

    2016-12-01

    Decadal variability of sea level in the Indo-Pacific region is investigated using a historical OGCM simulation. The OGCM driven by the atmospheric forcing removing long-term trends clearly exhibits decadal sea level variability in the Pacific Ocean, which is associated with eastern tropical Pacific thermal anomalies. During the period of 1977-1987, the sea level anomalies are positive in the eastern equatorial Pacific and show deviations from a north-south symmetric distribution, with strongly negative anomalies in the western tropical South Pacific. During the period of 1996-2006, in contrast, the sea level anomalies are negative in the eastern equatorial Pacific and show a nearly north-south symmetric pattern, with positive anomalies in both hemispheres. Concurrently, sea level anomalies in the south-eastern Indian Ocean vary with those in the western tropical Pacific. These sea level variations are closely related to large-scale wind fields. Indo-Pacific sea level distributions are basically determined by wind anomalies over the equatorial region as well as wind stress curl anomalies over the off-equatorial region.

  12. Analysis of Sea Level Rise in Singapore Strait

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tkalich, Pavel; Luu, Quang-Hung

    2013-04-01

    Sea level in Singapore Strait is governed by various scale phenomena, from global to local. Global signals are dominated by the climate change and multi-decadal variability and associated sea level rise; at regional scale seasonal sea level variability is caused by ENSO-modulated monsoons; locally, astronomic tides are the strongest force. Tide gauge records in Singapore Strait are analyzed to derive local sea level trend, and attempts are made to attribute observed sea level variability to phenomena at various scales, from global to local. It is found that at annual scale, sea level anomalies in Singapore Strait are quasi-periodic, of the order of ±15 cm, the highest during northeast monsoon and the lowest during southwest monsoon. Interannual regional sea level falls are associated with El Niño events, while the rises are related to La Niña episodes; both variations are in the range of ±9 cm. At multi-decadal scale, sea level in Singapore Strait has been rising at the rate 1.2-1.9 mm/year for the period 1975-2009, 2.0±0.3 mm/year for 1984-2009, and 1.3-4.7 mm/year for 1993-2009. When compared with the respective global trends of 2.0±0.3, 2.4, and 2.8±0.8 mm/year, Singapore Strait sea level rise trend was weaker at the earlier period and stronger at the recent decade.

  13. An alternative to reduction of surface pressure to sea level

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Deardorff, J. W.

    1982-01-01

    The pitfalls of the present method of reducing surface pressure to sea level are reviewed, and an alternative, adjusted pressure, P, is proposed. P is obtained from solution of a Poisson equation over a continental region, using the simplest boundary condition along the perimeter or coastline where P equals the sea level pressure. The use of P would avoid the empiricisms and disadvantages of pressure reduction to sea level, and would produce surface pressure charts which depict the true geostrophic wind at the surface.

  14. Sea level trend and variability around Peninsular Malaysia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Luu, Q. H.; Tkalich, P.; Tay, T. W.

    2015-08-01

    Sea level rise due to climate change is non-uniform globally, necessitating regional estimates. Peninsular Malaysia is located in the middle of Southeast Asia, bounded from the west by the Malacca Strait, from the east by the South China Sea (SCS), and from the south by the Singapore Strait. The sea level along the peninsula may be influenced by various regional phenomena native to the adjacent parts of the Indian and Pacific oceans. To examine the variability and trend of sea level around the peninsula, tide gauge records and satellite altimetry are analyzed taking into account vertical land movements (VLMs). At annual scale, sea level anomalies (SLAs) around Peninsular Malaysia on the order of 5-25 cm are mainly monsoon driven. Sea levels at eastern and western coasts respond differently to the Asian monsoon: two peaks per year in the Malacca Strait due to South Asian-Indian monsoon; an annual cycle in the remaining region mostly due to the East Asian-western Pacific monsoon. At interannual scale, regional sea level variability in the range of ±6 cm is correlated with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). SLAs in the Malacca Strait side are further correlated with the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in the range of ±5 cm. Interannual regional sea level falls are associated with El Nino events and positive phases of IOD, whilst rises are correlated with La Nina episodes and negative values of the IOD index. At seasonal to interannual scales, we observe the separation of the sea level patterns in the Singapore Strait, between the Raffles Lighthouse and Tanjong Pagar tide stations, likely caused by a dynamic constriction in the narrowest part. During the observation period 1986-2013, average relative rates of sea level rise derived from tide gauges in Malacca Strait and along the east coast of the peninsula are 3.6±1.6 and 3.7±1.1 mm yr-1, respectively. Correcting for respective VLMs (0.8±2.6 and 0.9±2.2 mm yr-1), their corresponding geocentric sea level rise rates

  15. Coastal Impact Underestimated From Rapid Sea Level Rise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anderson, John; Milliken, Kristy; Wallace, Davin; Rodriguez, Antonio; Simms, Alexander

    2010-06-01

    A primary effect of global warming is accelerated sea level rise, which will eventually drown low-lying coastal areas, including some of the world's most populated cities. Predictions from the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggest that sea level may rise by as much as 0.6 meter by 2100 [Solomon et al., 2007]. However, uncertainty remains about how projected melting of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets will contribute to sea level rise. Further, considerable variability is introduced to these calculations due to coastal subsidence, especially along the northern Gulf of Mexico (see http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends.shtml).

  16. The Red Sea during the Last Glacial Maximum: implications for sea level reconstructions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gildor, H.; Biton, E.; Peltier, W. R.

    2006-12-01

    The Red Sea (RS) is a semi-enclosed basin connected to the Indian Ocean via a narrow and shallow strait, and surrounded by arid areas which exhibits high sensitivity to atmospheric changes and sea level reduction. We have used the MIT GCM to investigate the changes in the hydrography and circulation in the RS in response to reduced sea level, variability in the Indian monsoons, and changes in atmospheric temperature and humidity that occurred during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). The model results show high sensitivity to sea level reduction especially in the salinity field (increasing with the reduction in sea level) together with a mild atmospheric impact. Sea level reduction decreases the stratification, increases subsurface temperatures, and alters the circulation pattern at the Strait of Bab el Mandab, which experiences a transition from submaximal flow to maximal flow. The reduction in sea level at LGM alters the location of deep water formation which shifts to an open sea convective site in the northern part of the RS compared to present day situation in which deep water is formed from the Gulf of Suez outflow. Our main result based on both the GCM and on a simple hydraulic control model which takes into account mixing process at the Strait of Bab El Mandeb, is that sea level was reduced by only ~100 m in the Bab El Mandeb region during the LGM, i.e. the water depth at the Hanish sill (the shallowest part in the Strait Bab el Mandab) was around 34 m. This result agrees with the recent reconstruction of the LGM low stand of the sea in this region based upon the ICE-5G (VM2) model of Peltier (2004).

  17. MIS 5e relative sea-level changes in the Mediterranean Sea: Contribution of isostatic disequilibrium

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stocchi, Paolo; Vacchi, Matteo; Lorscheid, Thomas; de Boer, Bas; Simms, Alexander R.; van de Wal, Roderik S. W.; Vermeersen, Bert L. A.; Pappalardo, Marta; Rovere, Alessio

    2018-04-01

    Sea-level indicators dated to the Last Interglacial, or Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5e, have a twofold value. First, they can be used to constrain the melting of Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets in response to global warming scenarios. Second, they can be used to calculate the vertical crustal rates at active margins. For both applications, the contribution of glacio- and hydro-isostatic adjustment (GIA) to vertical displacement of sea-level indicators must be calculated. In this paper, we re-assess MIS 5e sea-level indicators at 11 Mediterranean sites that have been generally considered tectonically stable or affected by mild tectonics. These are found within a range of elevations of 2-10 m above modern mean sea level. Four sites are characterized by two separate sea-level stands, which suggest a two-step sea-level highstand during MIS 5e. Comparing field data with numerical modeling we show that (i) GIA is an important contributor to the spatial and temporal variability of the sea-level highstand during MIS 5e, (ii) the isostatic imbalance from the melting of the MIS 6 ice sheet can produce a >2.0 m sea-level highstand, and (iii) a two-step melting phase for the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets reduces the differences between observations and predictions. Our results show that assumptions of tectonic stability on the basis of the MIS 5e records carry intrinsically large uncertainties, stemming either from uncertainties in field data and GIA models. The latter are propagated to either Holocene or Pleistocene sea-level reconstructions if tectonic rates are considered linear through time.

  18. The multimillennial sea-level commitment of global warming.

    PubMed

    Levermann, Anders; Clark, Peter U; Marzeion, Ben; Milne, Glenn A; Pollard, David; Radic, Valentina; Robinson, Alexander

    2013-08-20

    Global mean sea level has been steadily rising over the last century, is projected to increase by the end of this century, and will continue to rise beyond the year 2100 unless the current global mean temperature trend is reversed. Inertia in the climate and global carbon system, however, causes the global mean temperature to decline slowly even after greenhouse gas emissions have ceased, raising the question of how much sea-level commitment is expected for different levels of global mean temperature increase above preindustrial levels. Although sea-level rise over the last century has been dominated by ocean warming and loss of glaciers, the sensitivity suggested from records of past sea levels indicates important contributions should also be expected from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. Uncertainties in the paleo-reconstructions, however, necessitate additional strategies to better constrain the sea-level commitment. Here we combine paleo-evidence with simulations from physical models to estimate the future sea-level commitment on a multimillennial time scale and compute associated regional sea-level patterns. Oceanic thermal expansion and the Antarctic Ice Sheet contribute quasi-linearly, with 0.4 m °C(-1) and 1.2 m °C(-1) of warming, respectively. The saturation of the contribution from glaciers is overcompensated by the nonlinear response of the Greenland Ice Sheet. As a consequence we are committed to a sea-level rise of approximately 2.3 m °C(-1) within the next 2,000 y. Considering the lifetime of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, this imposes the need for fundamental adaptation strategies on multicentennial time scales.

  19. The multimillennial sea-level commitment of global warming

    PubMed Central

    Levermann, Anders; Clark, Peter U.; Marzeion, Ben; Milne, Glenn A.; Pollard, David; Radic, Valentina; Robinson, Alexander

    2013-01-01

    Global mean sea level has been steadily rising over the last century, is projected to increase by the end of this century, and will continue to rise beyond the year 2100 unless the current global mean temperature trend is reversed. Inertia in the climate and global carbon system, however, causes the global mean temperature to decline slowly even after greenhouse gas emissions have ceased, raising the question of how much sea-level commitment is expected for different levels of global mean temperature increase above preindustrial levels. Although sea-level rise over the last century has been dominated by ocean warming and loss of glaciers, the sensitivity suggested from records of past sea levels indicates important contributions should also be expected from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. Uncertainties in the paleo-reconstructions, however, necessitate additional strategies to better constrain the sea-level commitment. Here we combine paleo-evidence with simulations from physical models to estimate the future sea-level commitment on a multimillennial time scale and compute associated regional sea-level patterns. Oceanic thermal expansion and the Antarctic Ice Sheet contribute quasi-linearly, with 0.4 m °C−1 and 1.2 m °C−1 of warming, respectively. The saturation of the contribution from glaciers is overcompensated by the nonlinear response of the Greenland Ice Sheet. As a consequence we are committed to a sea-level rise of approximately 2.3 m °C−1 within the next 2,000 y. Considering the lifetime of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, this imposes the need for fundamental adaptation strategies on multicentennial time scales. PMID:23858443

  20. Climate And Sea Level: It's In Our Hands Now

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Turrin, M.; Bell, R. E.; Ryan, W. B. F.

    2014-12-01

    Changes in sea level are measurable on both a local and a global scale providing an accessible way to connect climate to education, yet engaging teachers and students with the complex science that is behind the change in sea level can be a challenge. Deciding how much should be included and just how it should be introduced in any single classroom subject area can be an obstacle for a teacher. The Sea Level Rise Polar Explorer App developed through the PoLAR CCEP grant offers a guided tour through the many layers of science that impact sea level rise. This map-based data-rich app is framed around a series of questions that move the user through map layers with just the level of complexity they chose to explore. For a quick look teachers and students can review a 3 or 4 sentence introduction on how the given map links to sea level and then launch straight into the interactive touchable map. For a little more in depth look they can listen to (or read) a one-minute recorded background on the data displayed in the map prior to launching in. For those who want more in depth understanding they can click to a one page background piece on the topic with links to further visualizations, videos and data. Regardless of the level of complexity selected each map is composed of clickable data allowing the user to fully explore the science. The different options for diving in allow teachers to differentiate the learning for either the subject being taught or the user level of the student group. The map layers also include a range of complexities. Basic questions like "What is sea level?" talk about shorelines, past sea levels and elevations beneath the sea. Questions like "Why does sea level change?" includes slightly more complex issues like the role of ocean temperature, and how that differs from ocean heat content. And what is the role of the warming atmosphere in sea level change? Questions about "What about sea level in the past?" can bring challenges for students who have

  1. Sea-level variability over the Common Era

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kopp, Robert; Horton, Benjamin; Kemp, Andrew; Engelhart, Simon; Little, Chris

    2017-04-01

    The Common Era (CE) sea-level response to climate forcing, and its relationship to centennial-timescale climate variability such as the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and the Little Ice Age (LIA), is fragmentary relative to other proxy-derived climate records (e.g. atmospheric surface temperature). However, the Atlantic coast of North America provides a rich sedimentary record of CE relative sea level with sufficient spatial and temporal resolution to inform mechanisms underlying regional and global sea level variability and their relationship to other climate proxies. This coast has a small tidal range, improving the precision of sea-level reconstructions. Coastal subsidence (from glacial isostatic adjustment, GIA) creates accommodation space that is filled by salt-marsh peat and preserves accurate and precise sea-level indicators and abundant material for radiocarbon dating. In addition to longer term GIA induced land-level change from ongoing collapse of the Laurentide forebulge, these records are ideally situated to capture climate-driven sea level changes. The western North Atlantic Ocean sea level is sensitive to static equilibrium effects from melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet, as well as large-scale changes in ocean circulation and winds. Our reconstructions reveal two distinct patterns in sea-level during the CE along the United States Atlantic coast: (1) South of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, to Florida sea-level rise is essentially flat, with the record dominated by long-term geological processes until the onset of historic rates of rise in the late 19th century; (2) North of Cape Hatteras to Connecticut, sea level rise to maximum around 1000CE, a sea-level minimum around 1500 CE, and a long-term sea-level rise through the second half of the second millennium. The northern-intensified sea-level fall beginning 1000 is coincident with shifts toward persistent positive NAO-like atmospheric states inferred from other proxy records and is consistent with

  2. Characterization of extreme sea level at the European coast

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Elizalde, Alberto; Jorda, Gabriel; Mathis, Moritz; Mikolajewicz, Uwe

    2015-04-01

    Extreme high sea levels arise as a combination of storm surges and particular high tides events. Future climate simulations not only project changes in the atmospheric circulation, which induces changes in the wind conditions, but also an increase in the global mean sea level by thermal expansion and ice melting. Such changes increase the risk of coastal flooding, which represents a possible hazard for human activities. Therefore, it is important to investigate the pattern of sea level variability and long-term trends at coastal areas. In order to analyze further extreme sea level events at the European coast in the future climate projections, a new setup for the global ocean model MPIOM coupled with the regional atmosphere model REMO is prepared. The MPIOM irregular grid has enhanced resolution in the European region to resolve the North and the Mediterranean Seas (up to 11 x 11 km at the North Sea). The ocean model includes as well the full luni-solar ephemeridic tidal potential for tides simulation. To simulate the air-sea interaction, the regional atmospheric model REMO is interactively coupled to the ocean model over Europe. Such region corresponds to the EuroCORDEX domain with a 50 x 50 km resolution. Besides the standard fluxes of heat, mass (freshwater), momentum and turbulent energy input, the ocean model is also forced with sea level pressure, in order to be able to capture the full variation of sea level. The hydrological budget within the study domain is closed using a hydrological discharge model. With this model, simulations for present climate and future climate scenarios are carried out to study transient changes on the sea level and extreme events. As a first step, two simulations (coupled and uncoupled ocean) driven by reanalysis data (ERA40) have been conducted. They are used as reference runs to evaluate the climate projection simulations. For selected locations at the coast side, time series of sea level are separated on its different

  3. Synthesizing long-term sea level rise projections - the MAGICC sea level model v2.0

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nauels, Alexander; Meinshausen, Malte; Mengel, Matthias; Lorbacher, Katja; Wigley, Tom M. L.

    2017-06-01

    Sea level rise (SLR) is one of the major impacts of global warming; it will threaten coastal populations, infrastructure, and ecosystems around the globe in coming centuries. Well-constrained sea level projections are needed to estimate future losses from SLR and benefits of climate protection and adaptation. Process-based models that are designed to resolve the underlying physics of individual sea level drivers form the basis for state-of-the-art sea level projections. However, associated computational costs allow for only a small number of simulations based on selected scenarios that often vary for different sea level components. This approach does not sufficiently support sea level impact science and climate policy analysis, which require a sea level projection methodology that is flexible with regard to the climate scenario yet comprehensive and bound by the physical constraints provided by process-based models. To fill this gap, we present a sea level model that emulates global-mean long-term process-based model projections for all major sea level components. Thermal expansion estimates are calculated with the hemispheric upwelling-diffusion ocean component of the simple carbon-cycle climate model MAGICC, which has been updated and calibrated against CMIP5 ocean temperature profiles and thermal expansion data. Global glacier contributions are estimated based on a parameterization constrained by transient and equilibrium process-based projections. Sea level contribution estimates for Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are derived from surface mass balance and solid ice discharge parameterizations reproducing current output from ice-sheet models. The land water storage component replicates recent hydrological modeling results. For 2100, we project 0.35 to 0.56 m (66 % range) total SLR based on the RCP2.6 scenario, 0.45 to 0.67 m for RCP4.5, 0.46 to 0.71 m for RCP6.0, and 0.65 to 0.97 m for RCP8.5. These projections lie within the range of the latest IPCC SLR

  4. Chronology of Fluctuating Sea Levels since the Triassic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haq, Bilal U.; Hardenbol, Jan; Vail, Peter R.

    1987-03-01

    Advances in sequence stratigraphy and the development of depositional models have helped explain the origin of genetically related sedimentary packages during sea level cycles. These concepts have provided the basis for the recognition of sea level events in subsurface data and in outcrops of marine sediments around the world. Knowledge of these events has led to a new generation of Mesozoic and Cenozoic global cycle charts that chronicle the history of sea level fluctuations during the past 250 million years in greater detail than was possible from seismic-stratigraphic data alone. An effort has been made to develop a realistic and accurate time scale and widely applicable chronostratigraphy and to integrate depositional sequences documented in public domain outcrop sections from various basins with this chronostratigraphic frame-work. A description of this approach and an account of the results, illustrated by sea level cycle charts of the Cenozoic, Cretaceous, Jurassic, and Triassic intervals, are presented.

  5. Overestimation of marsh vulnerability to sea level rise

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kirwan, Matthew L.; Temmerman, Stijn; Skeehan, Emily E.; Guntenspergen, Glenn R.; Fagherazzi, Sergio

    2016-01-01

    Coastal marshes are considered to be among the most valuable and vulnerable ecosystems on Earth, where the imminent loss of ecosystem services is a feared consequence of sea level rise. However, we show with a meta-analysis that global measurements of marsh elevation change indicate that marshes are generally building at rates similar to or exceeding historical sea level rise, and that process-based models predict survival under a wide range of future sea level scenarios. We argue that marsh vulnerability tends to be overstated because assessment methods often fail to consider biophysical feedback processes known to accelerate soil building with sea level rise, and the potential for marshes to migrate inland.

  6. An Update of Sea Level Rise in the northwestern part of the Arabian Gulf

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alothman, Abdulaziz; Bos, Machiel; Fernandes, Rui

    2017-04-01

    Relative sea level variations in the northwestern part of the Arabian Gulf have been estimated in the past using no more than 10 to 15 years of observations. In Alothman et al. (2014), we have almost doubled the period to 28.7 years by examining all available tide gauge data in the area and constructing a mean gauge time-series from seven coastal tide gauges. We found for the period 1979-2007 a relative sea level rise of about 2mm/yr, which correspond to an absolute sea level rise of about 1.5mm/yr based on the vertical displacement of GNSS stations in the region. By taking into account the temporal correlations we concluded that previous published results underestimate the true sea level rate error in this area by a factor of 5-10. In this work, we discuss and update the methodology and results from Alothman et al. (2014), particularly by checking and extending the GNSS solutions. Since 3 of the 6 GPS stations used only started observing in the end of 2011, the longer time series have now significantly lower uncertainties in the estimated vertical rate. In addition, we compare our results with GRACE derived ocean bottom pressure time series which are a good proxy of the changes in water mass in this area over time.

  7. Assessing Flood Risk Under Sea Level Rise and Extreme Sea Levels Scenarios: Application to the Ebro Delta (Spain)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sayol, J. M.; Marcos, M.

    2018-02-01

    This study presents a novel methodology to estimate the impact of local sea level rise and extreme surges and waves in coastal areas under climate change scenarios. The methodology is applied to the Ebro Delta, a valuable and vulnerable low-lying wetland located in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea. Projections of local sea level accounting for all contributions to mean sea level changes, including thermal expansion, dynamic changes, fresh water addition and glacial isostatic adjustment, have been obtained from regionalized sea level projections during the 21st century. Particular attention has been paid to the uncertainties, which have been derived from the spread of the multi-model ensemble combined with seasonal/inter-annual sea level variability from local tide gauge observations. Besides vertical land movements have also been integrated to estimate local relative sea level rise. On the other hand, regional projections over the Mediterranean basin of storm surges and wind-waves have been used to evaluate changes in extreme events. The compound effects of surges and extreme waves have been quantified using their joint probability distributions. Finally, offshore sea level projections from extreme events superimposed to mean sea level have been propagated onto a high resolution digital elevation model of the study region in order to construct flood hazards maps for mid and end of the 21st century and under two different climate change scenarios. The effect of each contribution has been evaluated in terms of percentage of the area exposed to coastal hazards, which will help to design more efficient protection and adaptation measures.

  8. North Atlantic sea-level variability during the last millennium

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gehrels, Roland; Long, Antony; Saher, Margot; Barlow, Natasha; Blaauw, Maarten; Haigh, Ivan; Woodworth, Philip

    2014-05-01

    Climate modelling studies have demonstrated that spatial and temporal sea-level variability observed in North Atlantic tide-gauge records is controlled by a complex array of processes, including ice-ocean mass exchange, freshwater forcing, steric changes, changes in wind fields, and variations in the speed of the Gulf Stream. Longer records of sea-level change, also covering the pre-industrial period, are important as a 'natural' and long-term baseline against which to test model performance and to place recent and future sea-level changes and ice-sheet change into a long-term context. Such records can only be reliably and continuously reconstructed from proxy methods. Salt marshes are capable of recording decimetre-scale sea-level variations with high precision and accuracy. In this paper we present four new high-resolution proxy records of (sub-) decadal sea-level variability reconstructed from salt-marsh sediments in Iceland, Nova Scotia, Maine and Connecticut that span the past 400 to 900 years. Our records, based on more than 100 new radiocarbon analyses, Pb-210 and Cs-137 measurements as well as other biological and geochemical age markers, together with hundreds of new microfossil observations from contemporary and fossil salt marshes, capture not only the rapid 20th century sea-level rise, but also small-scale (decimetre, multi-decadal) sea-level fluctuations during preceding centuries. We show that in Iceland three periods of rapid sea-level rise are synchronous with the three largest positive shifts of the reconstructed North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. Along the North American east coast we compare our data with salt-marsh records from New Jersey, North Carolina and Florida and observe a trend of increased pre-industrial sea-level variability from south to north (Florida to Nova Scotia). Mass changes and freshwater forcing cannot explain this pattern. Based on comparisons with instrumental sea-level data and modelling studies we hypothesise that

  9. Building more effective sea level rise models for coastal management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kidwell, D.; Buckel, C.; Collini, R.; Meckley, T.

    2017-12-01

    For over a decade, increased attention on coastal resilience and adaptation to sea level rise has resulted in a proliferation of predictive models and tools. This proliferation has enhanced our understanding of our vulnerability to sea level rise, but has also led to stakeholder fatigue in trying to realize the value of each advancement. These models vary in type and complexity ranging from GIS-based bathtub viewers to modeling systems that dynamically couple complex biophysical and geomorphic processes. These approaches and capabilities typically have the common purpose using scenarios of global and regional sea level change to inform adaptation and mitigation. In addition, stakeholders are often presented a plethora of options to address sea level rise issues from a variety of agencies, academics, and consulting firms. All of this can result in confusion, misapplication of a specific model/tool, and stakeholder feedback of "no more new science or tools, just help me understand which one to use". Concerns from stakeholders have led to the question; how do we move forward with sea level rise modeling? This presentation will provide a synthesis of the experiences and feedback derived from NOAA's Ecological Effects of Sea level Rise (EESLR) program to discuss the future of predictive sea level rise impact modeling. EESLR is an applied research program focused on the advancement of dynamic modeling capabilities in collaboration with local and regional stakeholders. Key concerns from stakeholder engagement include questions about model uncertainty, approaches for model validation, and a lack of cross-model comparisons. Effective communication of model/tool products, capabilities, and results is paramount to address these concerns. Looking forward, the most effective predictions of sea level rise impacts on our coast will be attained through a focus on coupled modeling systems, particularly those that connect natural processes and human response.

  10. Adapting to Rising Sea Level: A Florida Perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parkinson, Randall W.

    2009-07-01

    Global climate change and concomitant rising sea level will have a profound impact on Florida's coastal and marine systems. Sea-level rise will increase erosion of beaches, cause saltwater intrusion into water supplies, inundate coastal marshes and other important habitats, and make coastal property more vulnerable to erosion and flooding. Yet most coastal areas are currently managed under the premise that sea-level rise is not significant and the shorelines are static or can be fixed in place by engineering structures. The new reality of sea-level rise and extreme weather due to climate change requires a new style of planning and management to protect resources and reduce risk to humans. Scientists must: (1) assess existing coastal vulnerability to address short term management issues and (2) model future landscape change and develop sustainable plans to address long term planning and management issues. Furthermore, this information must be effectively transferred to planners, managers, and elected officials to ensure their decisions are based upon the best available information. While there is still some uncertainty regarding the details of rising sea level and climate change, development decisions are being made today which commit public and private investment in real estate and associated infrastructure. With a design life of 30 yrs to 75 yrs or more, many of these investments are on a collision course with rising sea level and the resulting impacts will be significant. In the near term, the utilization of engineering structures may be required, but these are not sustainable and must ultimately yield to "managed withdrawal" programs if higher sea-level elevations or rates of rise are forthcoming. As an initial step towards successful adaptation, coastal management and planning documents (i.e., comprehensive plans) must be revised to include reference to climate change and rising sea-level.

  11. SEA-LEVEL RISE. Sea-level rise due to polar ice-sheet mass loss during past warm periods.

    PubMed

    Dutton, A; Carlson, A E; Long, A J; Milne, G A; Clark, P U; DeConto, R; Horton, B P; Rahmstorf, S; Raymo, M E

    2015-07-10

    Interdisciplinary studies of geologic archives have ushered in a new era of deciphering magnitudes, rates, and sources of sea-level rise from polar ice-sheet loss during past warm periods. Accounting for glacial isostatic processes helps to reconcile spatial variability in peak sea level during marine isotope stages 5e and 11, when the global mean reached 6 to 9 meters and 6 to 13 meters higher than present, respectively. Dynamic topography introduces large uncertainties on longer time scales, precluding robust sea-level estimates for intervals such as the Pliocene. Present climate is warming to a level associated with significant polar ice-sheet loss in the past. Here, we outline advances and challenges involved in constraining ice-sheet sensitivity to climate change with use of paleo-sea level records. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  12. Vertical land motion controls regional sea level rise patterns on the United States east coast since 1900

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Piecuch, C. G.; Huybers, P. J.; Hay, C.; Mitrovica, J. X.; Little, C. M.; Ponte, R. M.; Tingley, M.

    2017-12-01

    Understanding observed spatial variations in centennial relative sea level trends on the United States east coast has important scientific and societal applications. Past studies based on models and proxies variously suggest roles for crustal displacement, ocean dynamics, and melting of the Greenland ice sheet. Here we perform joint Bayesian inference on regional relative sea level, vertical land motion, and absolute sea level fields based on tide gauge records and GPS data. Posterior solutions show that regional vertical land motion explains most (80% median estimate) of the spatial variance in the large-scale relative sea level trend field on the east coast over 1900-2016. The posterior estimate for coastal absolute sea level rise is remarkably spatially uniform compared to previous studies, with a spatial average of 1.4-2.3 mm/yr (95% credible interval). Results corroborate glacial isostatic adjustment models and reveal that meaningful long-period, large-scale vertical velocity signals can be extracted from short GPS records.

  13. Regional Sea Level Scenarios for Coastal Risk Management: Managing the Uncertainty of Future Sea Level Change and Extreme Water Levels for Department of Defense Coastal Sites Worldwide

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2016-04-01

    SERDP NOAA USACE Ocean MANAGING THE UNCERTAINTY OF FUTURE SEA LEVEL CHANGE AND EXTREME WATER LEVELS FOR DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE COASTAL SITES...WORLDWIDE APRIL 2016 REGIONAL SEA LEVEL SCENARIOS FOR COASTAL RISK MANAGEMENT: COVER PHOTOS, FROM LEFT TO RIGHT: - Overwash of the island of Roi-Namur on...J.A., S. Gill, J. Obeysekera, W. Sweet, K. Knuuti, and J. Marburger. 2016. Regional Sea Level Scenarios for Coastal Risk Management: Managing the

  14. Sea level change since 2005: importance of salinity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Llovel, W.; Purkey, S.; Meyssignac, B.; Kolodziejczyk, N.; Blazquez, A.; Bamber, J. L.

    2017-12-01

    Sea level rise is one of the most important consequences of the actual global warming. Global mean sea level has been rising at a faster rate since 1993 (over the satellite altimetry era) than previous decades. This rise is expected to accelerate over the coming decades and century. At global scale, sea level rise is caused by a combination of freshwater increase from land ice melting and land water changes (mass component) and ocean warming (thermal expansion). Estimating the causes is of great interest not only to understand the past sea level changes but also to validate projections based on climate models. In this study, we investigate the global mass contribution to recent sea level changes with an alternative approach by estimating the global ocean freshening. For that purpose, we consider the unprecedented amount of salinity measurements from Argo floats for the past decade (2005-2015). We compare our results to the ocean mass inferred by GRACE data and based on a sea level budget approach. Our results bring new constrains on the global water cycle (ocean freshening) and energy budget (ocean warming) as well as on the global ocean mass directly inferred from GRACE data.

  15. Sea-Level Allowances along the World Coastlines

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vandewal, R.; Tsitsikas, C.; Reerink, T.; Slangen, A.; de Winter, R.; Muis, S.; Hunter, J. R.

    2017-12-01

    Sea level changes as a result of climate change. For projections we take ocean mass changes and volume changes into account. Including gravitational and rotational fingerprints this provide regional sea level changes. Hence we can calculate sea-level rise patterns based on CMIP5 projections. In order to take the variability around the mean state, which follows from the climate models, into account we use the concept of allowances. The allowance indicates the height a coastal structure needs to be increased to maintain the likelihood of sea-level extremes. Here we use a global reanalysis of storm surges and extreme sea levels based on a global hydrodynamic model in order to calculate allowances. It is shown that the model compares in most regions favourably with tide gauge records from the GESLA data set. Combining the CMIP5 projections and the global hydrodynamical model we calculate sea-level allowances along the global coastlines and expand the number of points with a factor 50 relative to tide gauge based results. Results show that allowances increase gradually along continental margins with largest values near the equator. In general values are lower at midlatitudes both in Northern and Southern Hemisphere. Increased risk for extremes are typically 103-104 for the majority of the coastline under the RCP8.5 scenario at the end of the century. Finally we will show preliminary results of the effect of changing wave heights based on the coordinated ocean wave project.

  16. Terrestrial Waters and Sea Level Variations on Interannual Time Scale

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Llovel, W.; Becker, M.; Cazenave, A.; Jevrejeva, S.; Alkama, R.; Decharme, B.; Douville, H.; Ablain, M.; Beckley, B.

    2011-01-01

    On decadal to multi-decadal time scales, thermal expansion of sea waters and land ice loss are the main contributors to sea level variations. However, modification of the terrestrial water cycle due to climate variability and direct anthropogenic forcing may also affect sea level. For the past decades, variations in land water storage and corresponding effects on sea level cannot be directly estimated from observations because these are almost non-existent at global continental scale. However, global hydrological models developed for atmospheric and climatic studies can be used for estimating total water storage. For the recent years (since mid-2002), terrestrial water storage change can be directly estimated from observations of the GRACE space gravimetry mission. In this study, we analyse the interannual variability of total land water storage, and investigate its contribution to mean sea level variability at interannual time scale. We consider three different periods that, each, depend on data availability: (1) GRACE era (2003-2009), (2) 1993-2003 and (3) 1955-1995. For the GRACE era (period 1), change in land water storage is estimated using different GRACE products over the 33 largest river basins worldwide. For periods 2 and 3, we use outputs from the ISBA-TRIP (Interactions between Soil, Biosphere, and Atmosphere-Total Runoff Integrating Pathways) global hydrological model. For each time span, we compare change in land water storage (expressed in sea level equivalent) to observed mean sea level, either from satellite altimetry (periods 1 and 2) or tide gauge records (period 3). For each data set and each time span, a trend has been removed as we focus on the interannual variability. We show that whatever the period considered, interannual variability of the mean sea level is essentially explained by interannual fluctuations in land water storage, with the largest contributions arising from tropical river basins.

  17. Experiments in Reconstructing Twentieth-Century Sea Levels

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ray, Richard D.; Douglas, Bruce C.

    2011-01-01

    One approach to reconstructing historical sea level from the relatively sparse tide-gauge network is to employ Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs) as interpolatory spatial basis functions. The EOFs are determined from independent global data, generally sea-surface heights from either satellite altimetry or a numerical ocean model. The problem is revisited here for sea level since 1900. A new approach to handling the tide-gauge datum problem by direct solution offers possible advantages over the method of integrating sea-level differences, with the potential of eventually adjusting datums into the global terrestrial reference frame. The resulting time series of global mean sea levels appears fairly insensitive to the adopted set of EOFs. In contrast, charts of regional sea level anomalies and trends are very sensitive to the adopted set of EOFs, especially for the sparser network of gauges in the early 20th century. The reconstructions appear especially suspect before 1950 in the tropical Pacific. While this limits some applications of the sea-level reconstructions, the sensitivity does appear adequately captured by formal uncertainties. All our solutions show regional trends over the past five decades to be fairly uniform throughout the global ocean, in contrast to trends observed over the shorter altimeter era. Consistent with several previous estimates, the global sea-level rise since 1900 is 1.70 +/- 0.26 mm/yr. The global trend since 1995 exceeds 3 mm/yr which is consistent with altimeter measurements, but this large trend was possibly also reached between 1935 and 1950.

  18. Trends and interannual variability of mass and steric sea level in the Tropical Asian Seas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kleinherenbrink, Marcel; Riva, Riccardo; Frederikse, Thomas; Merrifield, Mark; Wada, Yoshihide

    2017-08-01

    The mass and steric components of sea level changes have been separated in the Tropical Asian Seas (TAS) using a statistically optimal combination of Jason satellite altimetry, GRACE satellite gravimetry, and ocean reanalyses. Using observational uncertainties, statistically optimally weighted time series for both components have been obtained in four regions within the TAS over the period January 2005 to December 2012. The mass and steric sea level variability is regressed with the first two principal components (PC1&2) of Pacific equatorial wind stress and the Dipole Mode Index (DMI). Sea level in the South China Sea is not affected by any of the indices. Steric variability in the TAS is largest in the deep Banda and Celebes seas and is affected by both PCs and the DMI. Mass variability is largest on the continental shelves, which is primarily controlled by PC1. We argue that a water flux from the Western Tropical Pacific Ocean is the cause for mass variability in the TAS. The steric trends are about 2 mm yr-1 larger than the mass trends in the TAS. A significant part of the mass trend can be explained by the aforementioned indices and the nodal cycle. Trends obtained from fingerprints of mass redistribution are statistically equal to mass trends after subtracting the nodal cycle and the indices. Ultimately, the effect of omitting the TAS in global sea level budgets is estimated to be 0.3 mm yr-1.

  19. Orthogonal stack of global tide gauge sea level data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Trupin, A.; Wahr, J.

    1990-01-01

    Yearly and monthly tide gauge sea level data from around the globe are fitted to numerically generated equilibrium tidal data to search for the 18.6 year lunar tide and 14 month pole tide. Both tides are clearly evident in the results, and their amplitudes and phases are found to be consistent with a global equilibrium response. Global, monthly sea level data from outside the Baltic sea and Gulf of Bothnia are fitted to global atmospheric pressure data to study the response of the ocean to pressure fluctuations. The response is found to be inverted barometer at periods greater than two months. Global averages of tide gauge data, after correcting for the effects of post glacial rebound on individual station records, reveal an increase in sea level over the last 80 years of between 1.1 mm/yr and 1.9 mm/yr.

  20. Ice2sea - the future glacial contribution to sea-level rise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vaughan, D. G.; Ice2sea Consortium

    2009-04-01

    The melting of continental ice (glaciers, ice caps and ice sheets) is a substantial source of current sea-level rise, and one that is accelerating more rapidly than was predicted even a few years ago. Indeed, the most recent report from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change highlighted that the uncertainty in projections of future sea-level rise is dominated by uncertainty concerning continental ice, and that understanding of the key processes that will lead to loss of continental ice must be improved before reliable projections of sea-level rise can be produced. Such projections are urgently required for effective sea-defence management and coastal adaptation planning. Ice2sea is a consortium of European institutes and international partners seeking European funding to support an integrated scientific programme to improve understanding concerning the future glacial contribution to sea-level rise. This includes improving understanding of the processes that control, past, current and future sea-level rise, and generation of improved estimates of the contribution of glacial components to sea-level rise over the next 200 years. The programme will include targeted studies of key processes in mountain glacier systems and ice caps (e.g. Svalbard), and in ice sheets in both polar regions (Greenland and Antarctica) to improve understanding of how these systems will respond to future climate change. It will include fieldwork and remote sensing studies, and develop a suite of new, cross-validated glacier and ice-sheet model. Ice2sea will deliver these results in forms accessible to scientists, policy-makers and the general public, which will include clear presentations of the sources of uncertainty. Our aim is both, to provide improved projections of the glacial contribution to sea-level rise, and to leave a legacy of improved tools and techniques that will form the basis of ongoing refinements in sea-level projection. Ice2sea will provide exciting opportunities for many

  1. Sea level: measuring the bounding surfaces of the ocean

    PubMed Central

    Tamisiea, Mark E.; Hughes, Chris W.; Williams, Simon D. P.; Bingley, Richard M.

    2014-01-01

    The practical need to understand sea level along the coasts, such as for safe navigation given the spatially variable tides, has resulted in tide gauge observations having the distinction of being some of the longest instrumental ocean records. Archives of these records, along with geological constraints, have allowed us to identify the century-scale rise in global sea level. Additional data sources, particularly satellite altimetry missions, have helped us to better identify the rates and causes of sea-level rise and the mechanisms leading to spatial variability in the observed rates. Analysis of all of the data reveals the need for long-term and stable observation systems to assess accurately the regional changes as well as to improve our ability to estimate future changes in sea level. While information from many scientific disciplines is needed to understand sea-level change, this review focuses on contributions from geodesy and the role of the ocean's bounding surfaces: the sea surface and the Earth's crust. PMID:25157196

  2. Sea level: measuring the bounding surfaces of the ocean.

    PubMed

    Tamisiea, Mark E; Hughes, Chris W; Williams, Simon D P; Bingley, Richard M

    2014-09-28

    The practical need to understand sea level along the coasts, such as for safe navigation given the spatially variable tides, has resulted in tide gauge observations having the distinction of being some of the longest instrumental ocean records. Archives of these records, along with geological constraints, have allowed us to identify the century-scale rise in global sea level. Additional data sources, particularly satellite altimetry missions, have helped us to better identify the rates and causes of sea-level rise and the mechanisms leading to spatial variability in the observed rates. Analysis of all of the data reveals the need for long-term and stable observation systems to assess accurately the regional changes as well as to improve our ability to estimate future changes in sea level. While information from many scientific disciplines is needed to understand sea-level change, this review focuses on contributions from geodesy and the role of the ocean's bounding surfaces: the sea surface and the Earth's crust. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

  3. Sea Level Budget along the East Coast of North America

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pease, A. M.; Davis, J. L.; Vinogradova, N. T.

    2016-12-01

    We analyzed tide gauge data, taken from 1955 to 2015, from 29 locations along the east coast of North America. A well-documented period of sea-level acceleration began around 1990. The sea level rate (referenced to epoch 1985.0) and acceleration (post-1990) are spatially and temporally variable, due to various physical processes, each of which is also spatially and temporally variable. To determine the sea-level budgets for rate and acceleration, we considered a number of major contributors to sea level change: ocean density and dynamics, glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA), the inverted barometer effect, and mass change associated with the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) and the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS). The geographic variability in the budgets for sea-level rate is dominated by GIA. At some sites, GIA is the largest contributor to the rate. The geographic variability in the budgets for sea-level acceleration is dominated by ocean dynamics and density and GIS mass loss. The figure below shows budgets for sea-level rate (left) and acceleration (right) for Key West, Fla., (top) and The Battery in New York City (bottom). The blue represents values (with error bar shown) estimated from tide gauge observations, and the yellow represents the total values estimated from the individual model contributions (each in red, green, cyan, pink, and black). The estimated totals for rate and acceleration are good matches to the tide-gauge inferences. To achieve a reasonable fit, a scaling factor (admittance) for the combined contribution of ocean dynamics and density was estimated; this admittance may reflect the low spatial sampling of the GECCO2 model we used, or other problems in modeling coastal sea-level. The significant contributions of mass loss to the acceleration enable us to predict that, if such mass-loss continues or increases, the character of sea-level change on the North American east coast will change in the next 50-100 years. In particular, whereas GIA presently

  4. Sea-level-induced seismicity and submarine landslide occurrence

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Brothers, Daniel S.; Luttrell, Karen M.; Chaytor, Jason D.

    2013-01-01

    The temporal coincidence between rapid late Pleistocene sea-level rise and large-scale slope failures is widely documented. Nevertheless, the physical mechanisms that link these phenomena are poorly understood, particularly along nonglaciated margins. Here we investigate the causal relationships between rapid sea-level rise, flexural stress loading, and increased seismicity rates along passive margins. We find that Coulomb failure stress across fault systems of passive continental margins may have increased more than 1 MPa during rapid late Pleistocene–early Holocene sea-level rise, an amount sufficient to trigger fault reactivation and rupture. These results suggest that sea-level–modulated seismicity may have contributed to a number of poorly understood but widely observed phenomena, including (1) increased frequency of large-scale submarine landslides during rapid, late Pleistocene sea-level rise; (2) emplacement of coarse-grained mass transport deposits on deep-sea fans during the early stages of marine transgression; and (3) the unroofing and release of methane gas sequestered in continental slope sediments.

  5. Nordic Sea Level - Analysis of PSMSL RLR Tide Gauge data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Knudsen, Per; Andersen, Ole

    2015-04-01

    Tide gauge data from the Nordic region covering a period of time from 1920 to 2000 are evaluated. 63 stations having RLR data for at least 40 years have been used. Each tide gauge data record was averaged to annual averages after the monthly average seasonal anomalies were removed. Some stations lack data, especially before around 1950. Hence, to compute representative sea level trends for the 1920-2000 period a procedure for filling in estimated sea level values in the voids, is needed. To fill in voids in the tide gauge data records a reconstruction method was applied that utilizes EOF.s in an iterative manner. Subsequently the trends were computed. The estimated trends range from about -8 mm/year to 2 mm/year reflecting both post-glacial uplift and sea level rise. An evaluation of the first EOFs show that the first EOF clearly describes the trends in the time series. EOF #2 and #3 describe differences in the inter-annual sea level variability with-in the Baltic Sea and differences between the Baltic and the North Atlantic / Norwegian seas, respectively.

  6. How Much Are Floridians Willing to Pay for Protecting Sea Turtles from Sea Level Rise?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hamed, Ahmed; Madani, Kaveh; Von Holle, Betsy; Wright, James; Milon, J. Walter; Bossick, Matthew

    2016-01-01

    Sea level rise (SLR) is posing a great inundation risk to coastal areas. Some coastal nesting species, including sea turtle species, have experienced diminished habitat from SLR. Contingent valuation method (CVM) was used in an effort to assess the economic loss impacts of SLR on sea turtle nesting habitats for Florida coasts; and to elicit values of willingness to pay (WTP) of Central Florida residents to implement certain mitigation strategies, which would protect Florida's east coast sea turtle nesting areas. Using the open-ended and dichotomous choice CVM, we sampled residents of two Florida communities: Cocoa Beach and Oviedo. We estimated the WTP of households from these two cities to protect sea turtle habitat to be between 42 and 57 per year for 5 years. Additionally, we attempted to assess the impact of the both the respondents' demographics and their perception toward various situations on their WTP value. Findings include a negative correlation between the age of a respondent and the probability of an individual willing to pay the hypothetical WTP amount. We found that WTP of an individual was not dependent on prior knowledge of the effects of SLR on sea turtle habitat. The greatest indicators of whether or not an individual was willing to pay to protect sea turtle habitat were the respondents' perception regarding the trustworthiness and efficiency of the party which will implement the conservation measures and their confidence in the conservation methods used. Respondents who perceive sea turtles having an effect on their life were also more likely to pay.

  7. How Much Are Floridians Willing to Pay for Protecting Sea Turtles from Sea Level Rise?

    PubMed

    Hamed, Ahmed; Madani, Kaveh; Von Holle, Betsy; Wright, James; Milon, J Walter; Bossick, Matthew

    2016-01-01

    Sea level rise (SLR) is posing a great inundation risk to coastal areas. Some coastal nesting species, including sea turtle species, have experienced diminished habitat from SLR. Contingent valuation method (CVM) was used in an effort to assess the economic loss impacts of SLR on sea turtle nesting habitats for Florida coasts; and to elicit values of willingness to pay (WTP) of Central Florida residents to implement certain mitigation strategies, which would protect Florida's east coast sea turtle nesting areas. Using the open-ended and dichotomous choice CVM, we sampled residents of two Florida communities: Cocoa Beach and Oviedo. We estimated the WTP of households from these two cities to protect sea turtle habitat to be between $42 and $57 per year for 5 years. Additionally, we attempted to assess the impact of the both the respondents' demographics and their perception toward various situations on their WTP value. Findings include a negative correlation between the age of a respondent and the probability of an individual willing to pay the hypothetical WTP amount. We found that WTP of an individual was not dependent on prior knowledge of the effects of SLR on sea turtle habitat. The greatest indicators of whether or not an individual was willing to pay to protect sea turtle habitat were the respondents' perception regarding the trustworthiness and efficiency of the party which will implement the conservation measures and their confidence in the conservation methods used. Respondents who perceive sea turtles having an effect on their life were also more likely to pay.

  8. A nonstationary analysis for the Northern Adriatic extreme sea levels

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Masina, Marinella; Lamberti, Alberto

    2013-09-01

    The historical data from the Trieste, Venice, Porto Corsini, and Rimini tide gauges have been used to investigate the spatial and temporal changes in extreme high water levels in the Northern Adriatic. A detailed analysis of annual mean sea level evolution at the three longest operating stations shows a coherent behavior both on a regional and global scale. A slight increase in magnitude of extreme water elevations, after the removal of the regularized annual mean sea level necessary to eliminate the effect of local subsidence and sea level rise, is found at the Venice and Porto Corsini stations. It seems to be mainly associated with a wind regime change occurred in the 1990s, due to an intensification of Bora wind events after their decrease in frequency and intensity during the second half of the 20th century. The extreme values, adjusted for the annual mean sea level trend, are modeled using a time-dependent GEV distribution. The inclusion of seasonality in the GEV parameters considerably improves the data fitting. The interannual fluctuations of the detrended monthly maxima exhibit a significant correlation with the variability of the large-scale atmospheric circulation represented by the North Atlantic Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation indices. The different coast exposure to the Bora and Sirocco winds and their seasonal character explain the various seasonal patterns of extreme sea levels observed at the tide gauges considered in the present analysis.

  9. Global mean sea level - Indicator of climate change

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Robock, A.; Hansen, J.; Gornitz, V.; Lebedeff, S.; Moore, E.; Etkins, R.; Epstein, E.

    1983-01-01

    A critical discussion is presented on the use by Etkins and Epstein (1982) of combined surface air temperature and sea level time series to draw conclusions concerning the discharge of the polar ice sheets. It is objected by Robock that they used Northern Hemisphere land surface air temperature records which are unrepresentative of global sea surface temperature, and he suggests that externally imposed volcanic dust and CO2 forcings can adequately account for observed temperature changes over the last century, with global sea level changing in passive response to sea change as a result of thermal expansion. Hansen et al. adduce evidence for global cooling due to ice discharge that has not exceeded a few hundredths of a degree centigrade in the last century, precluding any importance of this phenomenon in the interpretation of global mean temperature trends for this period. Etkins and Epstein reply that since their 1982 report additional evidence has emerged for the hypothesis that the polar ice caps are diminishing. It is reasserted that each of the indices discussed, including global mean sea surface temperature and sea level, polar ice sheet mass balance, water mass characteristics, and the spin rate and axis of rotation displacement of the earth, are physically linked and can be systematically monitored, as is currently being planned under the auspices of the National Climate Program.

  10. First order sea-level cycles and supercontinent break up

    SciTech Connect

    Heller, P.L.; Angevine, C.L.

    1985-01-01

    The authors have developed a model that successfully predicts the approximate magnitude and timing of long term sea-level change without relying on short term increases in global spreading rates. The model involves the following key assumptions. (1) Ocean basins have two types of area/age distributions; Pacific ocean basins are rimmed by subduction zones and have triangular distributions; and Atlantic ocean basins which open at constant rates, have no subduction, and so have rectangular distributions. (2) The total area of the global ocean is constant so that the Pacific basin must close as the Atlantic opens. These assumptions approximate modern globalmore » ocean basin conditions. The model begins with supercontinent break up. As the Atlantic begins to open, the mean age of the global ocean decreases, the mean depth of the sea floor shallows, and sea level, therefore, rises. Once the Atlantic occupies more than 8 to 10% of the global ocean area, the mean age and depth of the ocean floor increases resulting in a sea-level fall. The model can be applied to the mid-Cretaceous sea-level high stand which followed break up of Pangea by 80 to 100 Ma. Based on average Atlantic opening rates, sea level rises to a peak of 44 m at 80 Ma after opening began and then falls by 84 m to the present. Thus the model is capable of explaining approximately half of the total magnitude of the post-mid-Cretaceous eustatic fall without invoking short-term changes in global spreading rates. In addition, the model predicts the observed time lag between supercontinent break up and sea-level high stand for both Mesozoic as well as early Paleozoic time.« less

  11. Long-period sea-level variations in the Mediterranean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zerbini, Susanna; Raicich, Fabio; Bruni, Sara; del Conte, Sara; Errico, Maddalena; Prati, Claudio; Santi, Efisio

    2016-04-01

    Since the beginning of its long-lasting lifetime, the Wegener initiative has devoted careful consideration to studying sea-level variations/changes across the Mediterranean Sea. Our study focuses on several long-period sea-level time series (from end of 1800 to 2012) acquired in the Mediterranean by tide gauge stations. In general, the analysis and interpretation of these data sets can provide an important contribution to research on climate change and its impacts. We have analyzed the centennial sea-level time series of six fairly well documented tide gauges. They are: Marseille, in France, Alicante in Spain, Genoa, Trieste, Venice and Marina di Ravenna (formerly Porto Corsini), in Italy. The data of the Italian stations of Marina di Ravenna and Venice clearly indicate that land subsidence is responsible for most of the observed rate of relative sea level rise. It is well known that, in the two areas, subsidence is caused by both natural processes and human activities. For these two stations, using levelling data of benchmarks at, and/or close to, the tide gauges, and for the recent years, also GPS and InSAR height time series, modelling of the long-period non-linear behavior of subsidence was successfully accomplished. After removing the land vertical motions, the estimate of the linear long-period sea-level rise at all six stations yielded remarkably consistent values, between +1,2 and +1,3 mm/yr, with associated errors ranging from ±0,2 to ±0,3 mm/yr (95% confidence interval), which also account for the statistical autocorrelation of the time series. These trends in the Mediterranean area are lower than the global mean rate of 1,7±0,2 mm/yr (1901-2010) presented by the IPCC in its 5th Assessment Report; however, they are in full agreement with a global mean sea-level rise estimate, over the period 1901-1990, recently published by Hay et al. (2015, doi:10.1038/nature14093) and obtained using probabilistic techniques that combine sea-level records with physics

  12. Revisiting Tectonic Corrections Applied to Pleistocene Sea-Level Highstands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Creveling, J. R.; Mitrovica, J. X.; Hay, C.; Austermann, J.; Kopp, R. E.

    2015-12-01

    The robustness of stratigraphic- and geomorphic-based inferences of Quaternary peak interglacial sea levels — and equivalent minimum continental ice volumes — depends on the accuracy with which highstand markers can be corrected for vertical tectonic displacement. For sites that preserve a Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5e sea-level highstand marker, the customary method for estimating tectonic uplift/subsidence rate computes the difference between the local elevation of the highstand marker and a reference eustatic (i.e., global mean) MIS 5e sea-level height, typically assumed to be +6 m, and then divides this height difference by the age of the highstand marker. This rate is then applied to correct the elevation of other observed sea-level markers at that site for tectonic displacement. Subtracting a reference eustatic value from a local MIS 5e highstand marker elevation introduces two potentially significant errors. First, the commonly adopted peak eustatic MIS 5e sea-level value (i.e., +6 m) is likely too low; recent studies concluded that MIS 5e peak eustatic sea level was ~6-9 m. Second, local peak MIS 5e sea level was not globally uniform, but instead characterized by significant departures from eustasy due to glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) in response to successive glacial-interglacial cycles and excess polar ice-sheet melt relative to present day. We present numerical models of GIA that incorporate both of these effects in order to quantify the plausible range in error of previous tectonic corrections. We demonstrate that, even far from melting ice sheets, local peak MIS 5e sea level may have departed from eustasy by 2-4 m, or more. Thus, adopting an assumed reference eustatic value to estimate tectonic displacement, rather than a site-specific GIA signal, can introduce significant error in estimates of peak eustatic sea level (and minimum ice volumes) during Quaternary highstands (e.g., MIS 11, MIS 5c and MIS 5a).

  13. Holocene sea level, a semi-empirical contemplation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bittermann, Klaus; Kemp, Andrew; Vermeer, Martin; Rahmstorf, Stefan

    2017-04-01

    Holocene eustatic sea level from approximately -10,000-1800 CE was characterized by an increase of about 60 m, with the rate progressively slowing down until sea level almost stabilizes between 500-1800 CE. Global and northern-hemisphere temperatures rose from the last glacial termination until the 'Holocene Optimum'. From there, up to the start of the recent anthropogenic rise, they almost steadily decline. How are the sea-level and temperature evolutions linked? We investigate this with a semi-empirical sea-level model. We found that, due to the nature of Milankovitch forcing, northern-hemisphere temperature (we used the Greenland temperature by Vinther et al., 2009) is a better model driver than global mean temperature because the evolving mass of northern-hemisphere land ice was the dominant cause of Holocene global sea-level trends. The adjustment timescale for this contribution is 1200 years (900-1500 years; 90% confidence interval). To fit the observed sea-level history, the model requires a small additional constant rate (Bittermann 2016). This rate turns out to be of the same order of magnitude as reconstructions of Antarctic sea-level contributions (Briggs et al. 2014, Golledge et al. 2014). In reality this contribution is unlikely to be constant but rather has a dominant timescale that is large compared to the time considered. We thus propose that Holocene sea level can be described by a linear combination of a temperature driven rate, which becomes negative in the late Holocene (as Northern Hemisphere ice masses are diminished), and a positive, approximately constant term (possibly from Antarctica), which starts to dominate from the middle of the Holocene until the start of industrialization. Bibliography: Bittermann, K. 2016. Semi-empirical sea-level modelling. PhD Thesis University of Potsdam. Briggs, R.D., Pollard, D., & Tarasov, L. 2014. A data-constrained large ensemble analysis of Antarctic evolution since the Eemian. Quaternary science reviews

  14. Holocene sea level, a semi-empirical contemplation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bittermann, K.; Kemp, A.; Vermeer, M.; Rahmstorf, S.

    2017-12-01

    Holocene eustatic sea level from approximately -10,000-1800 CE was characterized by an increase of about 60m, with the rate progressively slowing down until sea level almost stabilizes between 500-1800 CE. Global and northern-hemisphere temperatures rose from the last glacial termination until the `Holocene Optimum'. From ­­there, up to the start of the recent anthropogenic rise, they almost steadily decline. How are the sea-level and temperature evolutions linked? We investigate this with semi-empirical sea-level models. We found that, due to the nature of Milankovitch forcing, northern-hemisphere temperature (we used the Greenland temperature by Vinther et al., 2009) is a better model driver than global mean temperature because the evolving mass of northern-hemisphere land ice was the dominant cause of Holocene global sea-level trends. The adjustment timescale for this contribution is 1200 years (900-1500 years; 90% confidence interval). To fit the observed sea-level history, the model requires a small additional constant rate (Bittermann 2016). This rate turns out to be of the same order of magnitude as reconstructions of Antarctic sea-level contributions (Briggs et al. 2014, Golledge et al. 2014). In reality this contribution is unlikely to be constant but rather has a dominant timescale that is large compared to the time considered. We thus propose that Holocene sea level can be described by a linear combination of a temperature driven rate, which becomes negative in the late Holocene (as Northern Hemisphere ice masses are diminished), and a positive, approximately constant term (possibly from Antarctica), which starts to dominate from the middle of the Holocene until the start of industrialization. Bibliography: Bittermann, K. 2016. Semi-empirical sea-level modelling. PhD Thesis University of Potsdam. Briggs, R.D., et al. 2014. A data-constrained large ensemble analysis of Antarctic evolution since the Eemian. Quaternary science reviews, 103, 91

  15. Impact of sea level rise on tide gate function.

    PubMed

    Walsh, Sean; Miskewitz, Robert

    2013-01-01

    Sea level rise resulting from climate change and land subsidence is expected to severely impact the duration and associated damage resulting from flooding events in tidal communities. These communities must continuously invest resources for the maintenance of existing structures and installation of new flood prevention infrastructure. Tide gates are a common flood prevention structure for low-lying communities in the tidal zone. Tide gates close during incoming tides to prevent inundation from downstream water propagating inland and open during outgoing tides to drain upland areas. Higher downstream mean sea level elevations reduce the effectiveness of tide gates by impacting the hydraulics of the system. This project developed a HEC-RAS and HEC-HMS model of an existing tide gate structure and its upland drainage area in the New Jersey Meadowlands to simulate the impact of rising mean sea level elevations on the tide gate's ability to prevent upstream flooding. Model predictions indicate that sea level rise will reduce the tide gate effectiveness resulting in longer lasting and deeper flood events. The results indicate that there is a critical point in the sea level elevation for this local area, beyond which flooding scenarios become dramatically worse and would have a significantly negative impact on the standard of living and ability to do business in one of the most densely populated areas of America.

  16. Cenozoic sea level and the rise of modern rimmed atolls

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Toomey, Michael; Ashton, Andrew; Raymo, Maureen E.; Perron, J. Taylor

    2016-01-01

    Sea-level records from atolls, potentially spanning the Cenozoic, have been largely overlooked, in part because the processes that control atoll form (reef accretion, carbonate dissolution, sediment transport, vertical motion) are complex and, for many islands, unconstrained on million-year timescales. Here we combine existing observations of atoll morphology and corelog stratigraphy from Enewetak Atoll with a numerical model to (1) constrain the relative rates of subsidence, dissolution and sedimentation that have shaped modern Pacific atolls and (2) construct a record of sea level over the past 8.5 million years. Both the stratigraphy from Enewetak Atoll (constrained by a subsidence rate of ~ 20 m/Myr) and our numerical modeling results suggest that low sea levels (50–125 m below present), and presumably bi-polar glaciations, occurred throughout much of the late Miocene, preceding the warmer climate of the Pliocene, when sea level was higher than present. Carbonate dissolution through the subsequent sea-level fall that accompanied the onset of large glacial cycles in the late Pliocene, along with rapid highstand constructional reef growth, likely drove development of the rimmed atoll morphology we see today.

  17. Infrared mapping of ultrasound fields generated by medical transducers: feasibility of determining absolute intensity levels.

    PubMed

    Khokhlova, Vera A; Shmeleva, Svetlana M; Gavrilov, Leonid R; Martin, Eleanor; Sadhoo, Neelaksh; Shaw, Adam

    2013-08-01

    Considerable progress has been achieved in the use of infrared (IR) techniques for qualitative mapping of acoustic fields of high intensity focused ultrasound (HIFU) transducers. The authors have previously developed and demonstrated a method based on IR camera measurement of the temperature rise induced in an absorber less than 2 mm thick by ultrasonic bursts of less than 1 s duration. The goal of this paper was to make the method more quantitative and estimate the absolute intensity distributions by determining an overall calibration factor for the absorber and camera system. The implemented approach involved correlating the temperature rise measured in an absorber using an IR camera with the pressure distribution measured in water using a hydrophone. The measurements were conducted for two HIFU transducers and a flat physiotherapy transducer of 1 MHz frequency. Corresponding correction factors between the free field intensity and temperature were obtained and allowed the conversion of temperature images to intensity distributions. The system described here was able to map in good detail focused and unfocused ultrasound fields with sub-millimeter structure and with local time average intensity from below 0.1 W/cm(2) to at least 50 W/cm(2). Significantly higher intensities could be measured simply by reducing the duty cycle.

  18. Infrared mapping of ultrasound fields generated by medical transducers: Feasibility of determining absolute intensity levels

    PubMed Central

    Khokhlova, Vera A.; Shmeleva, Svetlana M.; Gavrilov, Leonid R.; Martin, Eleanor; Sadhoo, Neelaksh; Shaw, Adam

    2013-01-01

    Considerable progress has been achieved in the use of infrared (IR) techniques for qualitative mapping of acoustic fields of high intensity focused ultrasound (HIFU) transducers. The authors have previously developed and demonstrated a method based on IR camera measurement of the temperature rise induced in an absorber less than 2 mm thick by ultrasonic bursts of less than 1 s duration. The goal of this paper was to make the method more quantitative and estimate the absolute intensity distributions by determining an overall calibration factor for the absorber and camera system. The implemented approach involved correlating the temperature rise measured in an absorber using an IR camera with the pressure distribution measured in water using a hydrophone. The measurements were conducted for two HIFU transducers and a flat physiotherapy transducer of 1 MHz frequency. Corresponding correction factors between the free field intensity and temperature were obtained and allowed the conversion of temperature images to intensity distributions. The system described here was able to map in good detail focused and unfocused ultrasound fields with sub-millimeter structure and with local time average intensity from below 0.1 W/cm2 to at least 50 W/cm2. Significantly higher intensities could be measured simply by reducing the duty cycle. PMID:23927199

  19. Spatial-temporal analysis of sea level changes in China seas and neighboring oceans by merged altimeter data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, Yao; Zhou, Bin; Yu, Zhifeng; Lei, Hui; Sun, Jiamin; Zhu, Xingrui; Liu, Congjin

    2017-01-01

    The knowledge of sea level changes is critical important for social, economic and scientific development in coastal areas. Satellite altimeter makes it possible to observe long term and large scale dynamic changes in the ocean, contiguous shelf seas and coastal zone. In this paper, 1993-2015 altimeter data of Topex/Poseidon and its follow-on missions is used to get a time serious of continuous and homogeneous sea level anomaly gridding product. The sea level rising rate is 0.39 cm/yr in China Seas and the neighboring oceans, 0.37 cm/yr in the Bo and Yellow Sea, 0.29 cm/yr in the East China Sea and 0.40 cm/yr in the South China Sea. The mean sea level and its rising rate are spatial-temporal non-homogeneous. The mean sea level shows opposite characteristics in coastal seas versus open oceans. The Bo and Yellow Sea has the most significant seasonal variability. The results are consistent with in situ data observation by the Nation Ocean Agency of China. The coefficient of variability model is introduced to describe the spatial-temporal variability. Results show that the variability in coastal seas is stronger than that in open oceans, especially the seas off the entrance area of the river, indicating that the validation of altimeter data is less reasonable in these seas.

  20. Interactions of Estuarine Shoreline Infrastructure With Multiscale Sea Level Variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Ruo-Qian; Herdman, Liv M.; Erikson, Li; Barnard, Patrick; Hummel, Michelle; Stacey, Mark T.

    2017-12-01

    Sea level rise increases the risk of storms and other short-term water-rise events, because it sets a higher water level such that coastal surges become more likely to overtop protections and cause floods. To protect coastal communities, it is necessary to understand the interaction among multiday and tidal sea level variabilities, coastal infrastructure, and sea level rise. We performed a series of numerical simulations for San Francisco Bay to examine two shoreline scenarios and a series of short-term and long-term sea level variations. The two shoreline configurations include the existing topography and a coherent full-bay containment that follows the existing land boundary with an impermeable wall. The sea level variability consists of a half-meter perturbation, with duration ranging from 2 days to permanent (i.e., sea level rise). The extent of coastal flooding was found to increase with the duration of the high-water-level event. The nonlinear interaction between these intermediate scale events and astronomical tidal forcing only contributes ˜1% of the tidal heights; at the same time, the tides are found to be a dominant factor in establishing the evolution and diffusion of multiday high water events. Establishing containment at existing shorelines can change the tidal height spectrum up to 5%, and the impact of this shoreline structure appears stronger in the low-frequency range. To interpret the spatial and temporal variability at a wide range of frequencies, Optimal Dynamic Mode Decomposition is introduced to analyze the coastal processes and an inverse method is applied to determine the coefficients of a 1-D diffusion wave model that quantify the impact of bottom roughness, tidal basin geometry, and shoreline configuration on the high water events.

  1. Holocene sea-level changes in the Falkland Islands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Newton, Tom; Gehrels, Roland; Daley, Tim; Long, Antony; Bentley, Mike

    2014-05-01

    In many locations in the southern hemisphere, relative sea level (RSL) reached its maximum position during the middle Holocene. This highstand is used by models of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) to constrain the melt histories of the large ice sheets, particularly Antarctica. In this paper we present the first Holocene sea-level record from the Falkland Islands (Islas Malvinas), an archipelago located on the Patagonian continental shelf about 500 km east of mainland South America at a latitude of ca. 52 degrees. Unlike coastal locations in southernmost South America, Holocene sea-level data from the Falklands are not influenced by tectonics, local ice loading effects and large tidal ranges such that GIA and ice-ocean mass flux are the dominant drivers of RSL change. Our study site is a salt marsh located in Swan Inlet in East Falkland, around 50 km southwest of Stanley. This is the largest and best developed salt marsh in the Falkland Islands. Cores were collected in 2005 and 2013. Lithostratigraphic analyses were complemented by analyses of foraminifera, testate amoebae and diatoms to infer palaeoenvironments. The bedrock, a Permian black shale, is overlain by grey-brown organic salt-marsh clay, up to 90 cm thick, which, in a landward direction, is replaced by freshwater organic sediments. Overlying these units are medium-coarse sands with occasional pebbles, up to 115 cm thick, containing tidal flat foraminifera. The sandy unit is erosively overlain by a grey-brown organic salt-marsh peat which extends up to the present surface. Further away from the sea this unit is predominantly of freshwater origin. Based on 13 radiocarbon dates we infer that prior to ~9.5 ka sea level was several metres below present. Under rising sea levels a salt marsh developed which was suddenly drowned around 8.4 ka, synchronous with a sea-level jump known from northern hemisphere locations. Following the drowning, RSL rose to its maximum position around 7 ka, less than 0.5 m above

  2. Sea-level rise risks to coastal cities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nicholls, Robert J.

    2017-04-01

    Understanding the consequence of sea-level rise for coastal cities has long lead times and huge political implications. Civilisation has emerged and developed during a period of several thousand years during which in geological terms sea level has been unusually stable. We have now moved out of this period and the challenge will be to develop a long-term proactive assessment approach to manage this challenge. In 2005 there were 136 coastal cities with a population exceeding one million people and a collective population of 400 million people. All these coastal cities are threatened by flooding from the sea to varying degrees and these risks are increasing due to growing exposure (people and assets), rising sea levels due to climate change, and in some cities, significant coastal subsidence due to human agency (drainage and groundwater withdrawals from susceptible soils). In these cities we wish to avoid major flood events, with associated damage and potentially deaths and ultimately decline of the cities. Flood risks grow with sea-level rise as it raises extreme sea levels. As sea levels continue to rise, protection will have to be progressively upgraded. Even with this, the magnitude of losses when flood events do occur would increase as coastal cities expand, and water depths and hence unit damage increase with sea-level rise/subsidence. This makes it critical to also prepare for larger coastal flood disasters than we experience today and raises questions on the limits to adaptation. There is not an extensive literature or significant empirical information on the limits to adaptation in coastal cities. These limits are not predictable in a formal sense - while the rise in mean sea level raises the likelihood of a catastrophic flood, extreme events are what cause damage and trigger a response, be it abandonment, a defence upgrade or something else. There are several types of potential limits that could be categorised into three broad types: • Physical

  3. Modal recovery of sea-level variability in the South China Sea using merged altimeter data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jiang, Haoyu; Chen, Ge

    2015-09-01

    Using 20 years (1993-2012) of merged data recorded by contemporary multi-altimeter missions, a variety of sea-level variability modes are recovered in the South China Sea employing three-dimensional harmonic extraction. In terms of the long-term variation, the South China Sea is estimated to have a rising sea-level linear trend of 5.39 mm/a over these 20 years. Among the modes extracted, the seven most statistically significant periodic or quasi-periodic modes are identified as principal modes. The geographical distributions of the magnitudes and phases of the modes are displayed. In terms of intraannual and annual regimes, two principal modes with strict semiannual and annual periods are found, with the annual variability having the largest amplitudes among the seven modes. For interannual and decadal regimes, five principal modes at approximately 18, 21, 23, 28, and 112 months are found with the most mode-active region being to the east of Vietnam. For the phase distributions, a series of amphidromes are observed as twins, termed "amphidrome twins", comprising rotating dipole systems. The stability of periodic modes is investigated employing joint spatiotemporal analysis of latitude/longitude sections. Results show that all periodic modes are robust, revealing the richness and complexity of sea-level modes in the South China Sea.

  4. Concerns--High Sea Levels and Temperatures Seen Next Century.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ryan, Paul R.

    1984-01-01

    A National Research Council committee recently concluded that atmospheric carbon dioxide levels will "most likely" double by late in the next century, causing an increase in the earth's average temperature. Effects of the increase on sea levels, global climate, and other parameters are discussed. (JN)

  5. Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coast sea level change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Douglas, Bruce C.

    Twentieth-century relative sea level rise shows considerable variability along the U.S. East and Gulf coasts. Local rates of rise lie in the range of about 1.5 to more than 4 mm per year for records from Key West, Florida, to New York City. Rates of sea level rise in the Gulf of Mexico can be much higher. In Texas and Louisiana, long-term water levels are rising up to about 10 mm per year. This is having disastrous consequences in the form of wetlands loss in the region, estimated to be as much as 65 km2 per year in the Mississippi Delta area of Louisiana alone. Beach erosion is also significant along both the Gulf and Atlantic coasts, resulting in ever-increasing exposure of fixed structures to the damaging impacts of storms. The especially high rates of sea level rise in Louisiana and Texas are a result of their particular geomorphology, and anthropogenic alterations in the form of sediment diversion and withdrawal of underground fluids. The average long-term local rate of sea level rise on the rest of the U.S. East and Gulf coasts when corrected for glacial isostatic adjustment is about 2 mm per year, in conformity with 20th century global sea level rise. U.S. East and Gulf coast tide gauge records also have regionally coherent low frequency (decadal and longer) variations that need to be understood because of their impact on wetlands loss, and to enable accurate determination of long-term trends of sea level rise.

  6. Tracking multidecadal trends in sea level using coral microatolls

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Majewski, Jedrzej; Pham, Dat; Meltzner, Aron; Switzer, Adam; Horton, Benjamin; Heng, Shu Yun; Warrick, David

    2015-04-01

    Tracking multidecadal trends in sea level using coral microatolls Jędrzej M. Majewski 1, Dat T. Pham1, Aron J. Meltzner 1, Adam D. Switzer 1, Benjamin P. Horton2, Shu Yun Heng1, David Warrick3, 1 Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 2 Department of Marine and Coastal Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, USA 3 Division of Geological and Planetary Sciences, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA Coral microatolls can be used to study relative sea-level change at multidecadal timescales associated with vertical land movements, climate induced sea-level rise and other oceanographic phenomena such as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) or Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) with the assumption that the highest level of survival (HLS) of coral microatolls track sea level over the course of their lifetimes. In this study we compare microatoll records covering from as early as 1883 through 2013, from two sites in Indonesia, with long records (>20 years) from proximal tide gauges, satellite altimetry, and other sea-level reconstructions. We compared the HLS time series derived from open-ocean and moated (or ponded) microatolls on tectonically stable Belitung Island and a potentially tectonically active setting in Mapur Island, with sea-level reconstructions for 1950-2011. The sea-level reconstructions are based on ground and satellite measurements, combining a tide model with the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) model. Our results confirm that open-ocean microatolls do track low water levels at multi decadal time scales and can be used as a proxy for relative sea level (RSL) over time. However, microatolls that are even partially moated are unsuitable and do not track RSL; rather, their growth patterns likely reflect changes in the elevation of the sill of the local pond, as reported by earlier authors. Our ongoing efforts will include an attempt to recognize similarities in moated

  7. Rising sea level may cause decline of fringing coral reefs

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Field, Michael E.; Ogston, Andrea S.; Storlazzi, Curt D.

    2011-01-01

    Coral reefs are major marine ecosystems and critical resources for marine diversity and fisheries. These ecosystems are widely recognized to be at risk from a number of stressors, and added to those in the past several decades is climate change due to anthropogenically driven increases in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. Most threatening to most coral reefs are elevated sea surface temperatures and increased ocean acidity [e.g., Kleypas et al., 1999; Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2007], but sea level rise, another consequence of climate change, is also likely to increase sedimentary processes that potentially interfere with photosynthesis, feeding, recruitment, and other key physiological processes (Figure 1). Anderson et al. [2010] argue compellingly that potential hazardous impacts to coastlines from 21st-century sea level rise are greatly underestimated, particularly because of the rapid rate of rise. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates that sea level will rise in the coming century (1990–2090) by 2.2–4.4 millimeters per year, when projected with little contribution from melting ice [Meehl et al., 2007]. New studies indicate that rapid melting of land ice could substantially increase the rate of sea level rise [Grinsted et al., 2009; Milne et al., 2009].

  8. A new perspective on global mean sea level (GMSL) acceleration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Watson, Phil J.

    2016-06-01

    The vast body of contemporary climate change science is largely underpinned by the premise of a measured acceleration from anthropogenic forcings evident in key climate change proxies -- greenhouse gas emissions, temperature, and mean sea level. By virtue, over recent years, the issue of whether or not there is a measurable acceleration in global mean sea level has resulted in fierce, widespread professional, social, and political debate. Attempts to measure acceleration in global mean sea level (GMSL) have often used comparatively crude analysis techniques providing little temporal instruction on these key questions. This work proposes improved techniques to measure real-time velocity and acceleration based on five GMSL reconstructions spanning the time frame from 1807 to 2014 with substantially improved temporal resolution. While this analysis highlights key differences between the respective reconstructions, there is now more robust, convincing evidence of recent acceleration in the trend of GMSL.

  9. The Significance of Rising Sea Levels.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Conway, Gregory J.

    1989-01-01

    Describes an activity in which students graph changes in tides and ocean levels over a period in order to obtain a visual representation of the changes taking place and their effects upon the Earth. Provides questions for students to answer after construction of the graphs. (RT)

  10. Last Deglacial Sea Level: A Curated Database of Indicators of Past Sea Levels from Biological and Geomorphological Archives

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hibbert, F. D.; Williams, F. H.; Fallon, S.; Rohling, E. J.

    2017-12-01

    The last deglacial was an interval of rapid climate and sea-level change, including the collapse of large continental ice sheets. This database collates carefully assessed sea-level data from peer-reviewed sources for the interval 0 to 25 thousand years ago (ka), from the last glacial maximum to the present interglacial conditions. In addition to facilitating site-specific reconstructions of past sea levels, the database provides a suite of data beyond the range of modern/instrumental variability that may help hone future sea-level projections. The database is global in scope, internally consistent, and contains U-series and radiocarbon dated indicators from both biological and geomorpohological archives. We focus on far-field data (i.e., away from the sites of the former continental ice sheets), but some key intermediate (i.e., from the Caribbean) data are also included. All primary fields (i.e., sample location, elevation, age and context) possess quantified uncertainties, which - in conjunction with available metadata - allows the reconstructed sea levels to be interpreted within both their uncertainties and geological context. Consistent treatment of each of the individual records in the database, and incorporation of fully expressed uncertainties, allows datasets to be easily compared. The compilation contains 145 studies from 40 locations (>2,000 data points) and includes all raw information and metadata.

  11. Mass-induced [|#8#|]Sea Level Variations in the Red Sea from Satellite Altimetry and GRACE

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feng, W.; Lemoine, J.; Zhong, M.; Hsu, H.

    2011-12-01

    We have analyzed mass-induced sea level variations (SLVs) in the Red Sea from steric-corrected altimetry and GRACE between January 2003 and December 2010. The steric component of SLVs in the Red Sea calculated from climatological temperature and salinity data is relatively small and anti-phase with the mass-induced SLV. The total SLV in the Red Sea is mainly driven by the mass-induced SLV, which increases in winter when the Red Sea gains the water mass from the Gulf of Aden and vice versa in summer. Spatial and temporal patterns of mass-induced SLVs in the Red Sea from steric-corrected altimetry agree very well with GRACE observations. Both of two independent observations show high annual amplitude in the central Red Sea (>20cm). Total mass-induced SLVs in the Red Sea from two independent observations have similar annual amplitude and phase. One main purpose of our work is to see whether GRGS's ten-day GRACE results can observe intra-seasonal mass change in the Red Sea. The wavelet coherence analysis indicates that GRGS's results show the high correlation with the steric-corrected SLVs on intra-seasonal time scale. The agreement is excellent for all the time-span until 1/3 year period and is patchy between 1/3 and 1/16 year period. Furthermore, water flux estimates from current-meter arrays and moorings show mass gain in winter and mass loss in summer, which is also consistent with altimetry and GRACE.

  12. Land Sea Level Difference Impacts on Socio-Hydrological System.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sung, K.; Yu, D. J.; Oh, W. S.; Sangwan, N.

    2016-12-01

    Allowing moderate shocks can be a new solution that helps to build adaptive capacity in society is a rising issue. In Social-Ecological field, Carpenter et al. (2015) suggested that exposure to short-term variability leads to long term resilience by enlarging safe operating space (SOS). The SOS refers to the boundary of favorable state that ecosystem can maintain resilience without imposing certain conditions (Carpenter et al. 2015). Our work is motivated by defining SOS in socio-hydrological system(SHS) because it can be an alternative way for flood management beyond optimized or robust flood control. In this context, large flood events that make system to cross the SOS should be fully managed, but frequent small floods need to be allowed if the system is located in SOS. Especially, land sea level change is critical factor to change flood resilience since it is one of the most substantial disturbance that changes the entire boundary of SOS. In order to have broader perspective of vulnerability and resilience of the coastal region, it is crucial to understand the land sea level dynamics changed with human activities and natural variances.The risk of land sea level change has been researched , but most of these researches have focused on explain cause and effect of land sea level change, paying little attention to its dynamics interacts with human activities. Thus, an objective of this research is to study dynamics of human work, land sea level change and resilience to flood with SOS approach. Especially, we focus on the case in Ganges-Brahmaputra, Bangladesh where has high vulnerability to flood, and is faced with relatively rapid land sea level change problem. To acheive the goal, this study will develop a stylized model by extending the human - flood interaction model combined with relative sea level difference equation. The model describes the dynamics of flood protection system which is changed by SHS and land sea level chage. we will focus on the aggradation

  13. The Impact of Sea Level Rise on Florida's Everglades

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Senarath, S. U.

    2005-12-01

    Global warming and the resulting melting of polar ice sheets could increase global sea levels significantly. Some studies have predicted mean sea level increases in the order of six inches to one foot in the next 25 to 50 years. This could have severe irreversible impacts on low-lying areas of Florida's Everglades. The key objective of this study is to evaluate the effects of a one foot sea level rise on Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow (CSSS) nesting areas within the Everglades National Park (ENP). A regional-scale hydrologic model is used to assess the sensitivities of this sea-level rise scenario. Florida's Everglades supports a unique ecosystem. At present, about 50 percent of this unique ecosystem has been lost due to urbanization and farming. Today, the water flow in the remnant Everglades is also regulated to meet a variety of competing environmental, water-supply and flood-control needs. A 30-year, eight billion dollar (1999 estimate) project has been initiated to improve Everglades' water flows. The expected benefits of this restoration project will be short-lived if the predicted sea level rise causes severe impacts on the environmentally sensitive areas of the Everglades. Florida's Everglades is home to many threatened and endangered species of wildlife. The Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow population in the ENP is one such species that is currently listed as endangered. Since these birds build their nests close to the ground surface (the base of the nest is approximately six inches from the ground surface), they are directly affected by any sea level induced ponding depth, frequency or duration change. Therefore, the CSSS population serves as a good indicator species for evaluating the negative impacts of sea level rise on the Everglades' ecosystem. The impact of sea level rise on the CSSS habitat is evaluated using the Regional Simulation Model (RSM) developed by the South Florida Water Management District. The RSM is an implicit, finite-volume, continuous

  14. Coastal Louisiana in Crisis: Subsidence or Sea Level Rise?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    González, Juan L.; Törnqvist, Torbjörn E.

    2006-11-01

    The drowning of wetlands and barrier islands in coastal Louisiana has become a widely publicized environmental catastrophe in the wake of hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005. The devastation caused by these storms has reenergized the debate about restoring the natural coastal-defense system and building higher and sturdier levees, in anticipation of future storms. Understanding the contributions of land subsidence and eustatic (global) sea level rise to Louisiana's wetland loss is crucial to the success of any plan designed to protect coastal communities. It is argued here that accelerated sea level rise in the future may pose a larger threat than subsidence for considerable portions of coastal Louisiana.

  15. The Linear Predictability of Sea Level: A Benchmark

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sonnewald, M.; Wunsch, C.; Heimbach, P.

    2016-12-01

    A benchmark of linear predictive skill of global sea level is presented, complimenting more complicated model studies of future predictive skill. Sea level is of great socioeconomic interest, as most of the worlds population live by the sea. Currently, the spread in model projections suggests poor predictive skill outside the seasonal cycle. We use 20 years of data from the ECCOv4 state estimate (1992-2012), assessing the variance attributable to the seasons and the linear predictability potential of the deseasoned component of sea level. The Northern Hemisphere has large regions where the seasons make up >90% of the variance, particularly in the western boundary current regions and zonal bands along the equator. The deaseasoned sea level is more dominant in the Southern Hemisphere, particularly in the Southern Ocean. We treat the deseasoned sea level as a weakly stationary random process, whose predictability is given by the covariance structure. Fitting an ARMA(n,m) model, we choose the order using the Akaike and Bayesian Information Criteria (AIC and BIC). The AIC is more appropriate, with generally higher orders chosen and offering slightly more predictive accuracy. Monthly detrended data shows skill generally of the order of a few months, with isolated regions of twelve months or more. With the trend, the predictive skill increases, particularly in the South Pacific. We assess the annually averaged data, although our time-series is too short to assess the variability. There is some predictive skill, which is enhanced if the trend is not removed. A major caveat of our approach is that we test and train our model on the same dataset due to the short duration of available data.

  16. Short Lived Climate Pollutants cause a Long Lived Effect on Sea-level Rise: Analyzing climate metrics for sea-level rise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sterner, E.; Johansson, D. J.

    2013-12-01

    utilizes an upwelling diffusion energy balance model and focuses on the thermosteric part of sea-level rise. Example GSP results are 244, 15 and 278 for BC, CH4 and N2O for a time horizon of 100 years. Compare GWP and GTP values of 405, 24 and 288 as well as 62, 4.5 and 252. The main result of the study is that no climate forcer is in any absolute sense short lived when it comes to Sea Level impacts. All of the examined climate forcers have considerable influence on the thermosteric SLR, and the closely linked ocean heat content, on the time scale of centuries. The reason for this is that heat, once it has been induced by the climate drivers and warmed the surface ocean, is transported down into the slowly mixing oceans. References: Shindell, D. et al. Simultaneously mitigating near-term climate change and improving human health and food security. Science 335, 183-189 (2012). Bond, T. C. et al. Bounding the role of black carbon in the climate system: A scientific assessment. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 118 5380-5552 (2013). Hu, A., Xu, Y., Tebaldi, C., Washington, W. M. & Ramanathan, V. Mitigation of short-lived climate pollutants slows sea-level rise. Nature Climate Change 3, 730-734 (2013).

  17. Revisiting sea level changes in the North Sea during the Anthropocene

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jensen, Jürgen; Dangendorf, Sönke; Wahl, Thomas; Niehüser, Sebastian

    2016-04-01

    The North Sea is one of the best instrumented ocean basins in the world. Here we revisit sea level changes in the North Sea region from tide gauges, satellite altimetry, hydrographic profiles and ocean reanalysis data from the beginning of the 19th century to present. This includes an overview of the sea level chapter of the North Sea Climate Change Assessment (NOSCCA) complemented by results from more recent investigations. The estimates of long-term changes from tide gauge records are significantly affected by vertical land motion (VLM), which is related to both the large-scale viscoelastic response of the solid earth to ice melting since the last deglaciation and local effects. Removing VLM (estimated from various data sources such as GPS, tide gauge minus altimetry and GIA) significantly reduces the spatial variability of long-term trends in the basin. VLM corrected tide gauge records suggest a transition from relatively moderate changes in the 19th century towards modern trends of roughly 1.5 mm/yr during the 20th century. Superimposed on the long-term changes there is a considerable inter-annual to multi-decadal variability. On inter-annual timescales this variability mainly reflects the barotropic response of the ocean to atmospheric forcing with the inverted barometer effect dominating along the UK and Norwegian coastlines and wind forcing controlling the southeastern part of the basin. The decadal variability is mostly remotely forced and dynamically linked to the North Atlantic via boundary waves in response to long-shore winds along the continental slope. These findings give valuable information about the required horizontal resolution of ocean models and the necessary boundary conditions and are therefore important for the dynamical downscaling of sea level projections for the North Sea coastlines.

  18. Mechanisms of long-term mean sea level variability in the North Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dangendorf, Sönke; Calafat, Francisco; Øie Nilsen, Jan Even; Richter, Kristin; Jensen, Jürgen

    2015-04-01

    We examine mean sea level (MSL) variations in the North Sea on timescales ranging from months to decades under the consideration of different forcing factors since the late 19th century. We use multiple linear regression models, which are validated for the second half of the 20th century against the output of a state-of-the-art tide+surge model (HAMSOM), to determine the barotropic response of the ocean to fluctuations in atmospheric forcing. We demonstrate that local atmospheric forcing mainly triggers MSL variability on timescales up to a few years, with the inverted barometric effect dominating the variability along the UK and Norwegian coastlines and wind (piling up the water along the coast) controlling the MSL variability in the south from Belgium up to Denmark. However, in addition to the large inter-annual sea level variability there is also a considerable fraction of decadal scale variability. We show that on decadal timescales MSL variability in the North Sea mainly reflects steric changes, which are mostly remotely forced. A spatial correlation analysis of altimetry observations and baroclinic ocean model outputs suggests evidence for a coherent signal extending from the Norwegian shelf down to the Canary Islands. This supports the theory of longshore wind forcing along the eastern boundary of the North Atlantic causing coastally trapped waves to propagate along the continental slope. With a combination of oceanographic and meteorological measurements we demonstrate that ~80% of the decadal sea level variability in the North Sea can be explained as response of the ocean to longshore wind forcing, including boundary wave propagation in the Northeast Atlantic. These findings have important implications for (i) detecting significant accelerations in North Sea MSL, (ii) the conceptual set up of regional ocean models in terms of resolution and boundary conditions, and (iii) the development of adequate and realistic regional climate change projections.

  19. Anomalous secular sea-level acceleration in the Baltic Sea caused by glacial isostatic adjustment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spada, Giorgio; Galassi, Gaia; Olivieri, Marco

    2014-05-01

    Observations from the global array of tide gauges show that global sea-level has been rising at an average rate of 1.5-2 mm/yr during the last ˜ 150 years (Spada & Galassi, 2012). Although a global sea-level acceleration was initially ruled out, subsequent studies have coherently proposed values of ˜1 mm/year/century (Olivieri & Spada, 2012). More complex non-linear trends and abrupt sea-level variations have now also been recognized. Globally, they could manifest a regime shift between the late Holocene and the current rhythms of sea-level rise, while locally they result from ocean circulation anomalies, steric effects and wind stress (Bromirski et al. 2011). Although isostatic readjustment affects the local rates of secular sea-level change, a possible impact on regional acceleration have been so far discounted (Woodworth et al., 2009) since the process evolves on a millennium scale. Here we report a previously unnoticed anomaly in the long-term sea-level acceleration of the Baltic Sea tide gauge records, and we explain it by the classical post-glacial rebound theory and numerical modeling of glacial isostasy. Contrary to previous assumptions, our findings demonstrate that isostatic compensation plays a role in the regional secular sea-level acceleration. In response to glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA), tide gauge records located along the coasts of the Baltic Sea exhibit a small - but significant - long-term sea-level acceleration in excess to those in the far field of previously glaciated regions. The sign and the amplitude of the anomaly is consistent with the post-glacial rebound theory and with realistic numerical predictions of GIA models routinely employed to decontaminate the tide gauges observations from the GIA effects (Peltier, 2004). Model computations predict the existence of anomalies of similar amplitude in other regions of the globe where GIA is still particularly vigorous at present, but no long-term instrumental observations are available to

  20. Sea-level rise: towards understanding local vulnerability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rahmstorf, Stefan

    2012-06-01

    Projections of global sea-level rise into the future have become more pessimistic over the past five years or so. A global rise by more than one metre by the year 2100 is now widely accepted as a serious possibility if greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated. That is witnessed by the scientific assessments that were made since the last IPCC report was published in 2007. The Delta Commission of the Dutch government projected up to 1.10 m as a 'high-end' scenario (Vellinga et al 2009). The Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR) projected up to 1.40 m (Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research 2009), and the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) gives a range of 0.90-1.60 m in its 2011 report (Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme 2011). And recently the US Army Corps of Engineers recommends using a 'low', an 'intermediate' and a 'high' scenario for global sea-level rise when planning civil works programmes, with the high one corresponding to a 1.50 m rise by 2100 (US Army Corps of Engineers 2011). This more pessimistic view is based on a number of observations, most importantly perhaps the fact that sea level has been rising at least 50% faster in the past decades than projected by the IPCC (Rahmstorf et al 2007, IPCC 2007). Also, the rate of rise (averaged over two decades) has accelerated threefold, from around 1 mm yr-1 at the start of the 20th century to around 3 mm yr-1 over the past 20 years (Church and White 2006), and this rate increase closely correlates with global warming (Rahmstorf et al 2011). The IPCC projections, which assume almost no further acceleration in the 20th century, thus look less plausible. And finally the observed net mass loss of the two big continental ice sheets (Van den Broeke et al 2011) calls into question the assumption that ice accumulation in Antarctica would largely balance ice loss from Greenland in the course of further global warming (IPCC 2007). With such a serious sea-level rise on the horizon

  1. Constraining Future Sea Level Rise Estimates from the Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nias, I.; Cornford, S. L.; Edwards, T.; Gourmelen, N.; Payne, A. J.

    2016-12-01

    The Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE) is the primary source of mass loss from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. The catchment is particularly susceptible to grounding line retreat, because the ice sheet is grounded on bedrock that is below sea level and deepening towards its interior. Mass loss from the ASE ice streams, which include Pine Island, Thwaites and Smith glaciers, is a major uncertainty on future sea level rise, and understanding the dynamics of these ice streams is essential to constraining this uncertainty. The aim of this study is to construct a distribution of future ASE sea level contributions from an ensemble of ice sheet model simulations and observations of surface elevation change. A 284 member ensemble was performed using BISICLES, a vertically-integrated ice flow model with adaptive mesh refinement. Within the ensemble parameters associated with basal traction, ice rheology and sub-shelf melt rate were perturbed, and the effect of bed topography and sliding law were also investigated. Initially each configuration was run to 50 model years. Satellite observations of surface height change were then used within a Bayesian framework to assign likelihoods to each ensemble member. Simulations that better reproduced the current thinning patterns across the catchment were given a higher score. The resulting posterior distribution of sea level contributions is narrower than the prior distribution, although the central estimates of sea level rise are similar between the prior and posterior. The most extreme simulations were eliminated and the remaining ensemble members were extended to 200 years, using a simple melt rate forcing.

  2. Steric sea level change in the Bay of Bengal: investigating the most variable component of sea level change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Uebbing, Bernd; Kusche, Jürgen; Rietbroek, Roelof; Shum, Ck

    2015-04-01

    Regional sea level change is influenced by contributions from mass sources, like melting of glaciers and the ice-sheets in Greenland and Antarctica, as well as steric contributions from changes in temperature and salinity of the oceans. Radar altimetry indicates a sea level trend in the Bay of Bengal of about 6 mm- yr over the time period of 2002-2014, which is significantly larger than the global mean trend. Here, we explain 80% of this rise by steric contributions and 20% by mass-related contributions. The increased rise of sea level in the Bay of Bengal threatens the coastal vulnerability of the surrounding countries like Bangladesh, where this effect is exacerbated in combination with land subsidence of the very low lying coastal areas. The BanD-AID (Bangladesh Delta: Assessment of the Causes of Sea-level Rise Hazards and Integrated Development of Predictive Modeling Towards Mitigation and Adaptation) project tries to assess the current and future sea level rise and its impacts on the people living in the threatened coastal areas. As a part of this, it is necessary to analyze the different mass and steric contributors to the total sea level rise to aid in the prediction of future risks. We use data from radar altimetry and the GRACE mission to separate the total sea level rise into contributions from mass sources and steric changes. In our approach, temporal GRACE gravity data and Jason-1 and -2 along track altimetry data are fitted to time invariant spatial patterns (fingerprints) to avoid problems with GRACE resolution, filtering, geocenter and related issues. Our results show that in the Bay of Bengal the steric component is influenced by annual and interannual phenomena and, at the same time, it is significantly larger compared to the individual mass contributions, which show a linear and relatively stable behavior over time. We validate the steric component of our inversion by comparing it to independent steric estimates from 4-D gridded temperature and

  3. The Offlap Break Position Vs Sea Level: A Discussion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tropeano, M.; Pieri, P.; Pomar, L.; Sabato, L.

    Sedimentary lithosomes with subhorizontal topsets, basinward prograding foresets and subhorizontal bottomsets are common in the geologic record, and most of them display similar bedding architectures and/or seismic reflection patterns (i.e. Gylbert- type deltas and shelf wedges). Nevertheless, in shallow marine settings these bodies may form in distinct sedimentary environments and they result from different sed- imentary processes. The offlap break (topset edge) occurs in relation to the posi- tion of baselevel and two main groups of lithosomes can be differentiated with re- spect to the position of the offlap break within the shelf profile. The baselevel of the first group is the sea level (or lake level); the topsets are mainly composed by continental- or very-shallow-water sedimentary facies and the offlap break practi- cally corresponds to the shoreline. Exemples of these lithosomes are high-constructive deltas (river-dominated deltas) and prograding beaches. For the second group, base- level corresponds to the base of wave/tide traction, and their topsets are mostly composed by shoreface/nearshore deposits. Examples of these lithosomes are high- destructive deltas (wave/tide-dominated deltas) and infralittoral prograding wedges (i.e Hernandez-Molina et al., 2000). The offlap break corresponds to the shelf edge (shoreface edge), which is located at the transition between nearshore and offshore set- tings, where a terrace prodelta- or transition-slope may develop (Pomar &Tropeano, 2001). Two main problems derive from these alternative interpretations of shallow- marine seaward prograding lithosomes: 1) both in ancient sedimentary shallow-marine successios (showing seaward prograding foresets) and in high resolution seismic pro- files (showing shelf wedges), the offlap break is commonly considered to correspond to the sea-level (shoreline) and used to inferr paleo sea-level positions and to construct sea-level curves. Without a good facies control, this use of

  4. Aircraft noise-induced awakenings are more reasonably predicted from relative than from absolute sound exposure levels.

    PubMed

    Fidell, Sanford; Tabachnick, Barbara; Mestre, Vincent; Fidell, Linda

    2013-11-01

    Assessment of aircraft noise-induced sleep disturbance is problematic for several reasons. Current assessment methods are based on sparse evidence and limited understandings; predictions of awakening prevalence rates based on indoor absolute sound exposure levels (SELs) fail to account for appreciable amounts of variance in dosage-response relationships and are not freely generalizable from airport to airport; and predicted awakening rates do not differ significantly from zero over a wide range of SELs. Even in conjunction with additional predictors, such as time of night and assumed individual differences in "sensitivity to awakening," nominally SEL-based predictions of awakening rates remain of limited utility and are easily misapplied and misinterpreted. Probabilities of awakening are more closely related to SELs scaled in units of standard deviates of local distributions of aircraft SELs, than to absolute sound levels. Self-selection of residential populations for tolerance of nighttime noise and habituation to airport noise environments offer more parsimonious and useful explanations for differences in awakening rates at disparate airports than assumed individual differences in sensitivity to awakening.

  5. Sea Level Station Metadata for Tsunami Detection, Warning and Research

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stroker, K. J.; Marra, J.; Kari, U. S.; Weinstein, S. A.; Kong, L.

    2007-12-01

    The devastating earthquake and tsunami of December 26, 2004 has greatly increased recognition of the need for water level data both from the coasts and the deep-ocean. In 2006, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) completed a Tsunami Data Management Report describing the management of data required to minimize the impact of tsunamis in the United States. One of the major gaps defined in this report is the access to global coastal water level data. NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) and National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) are working cooperatively to bridge this gap. NOAA relies on a network of global data, acquired and processed in real-time to support tsunami detection and warning, as well as high-quality global databases of archived data to support research and advanced scientific modeling. In 2005, parties interested in enhancing the access and use of sea level station data united under the NOAA NCDC's Integrated Data and Environmental Applications (IDEA) Center's Pacific Region Integrated Data Enterprise (PRIDE) program to develop a distributed metadata system describing sea level stations (Kari et. al., 2006; Marra et.al., in press). This effort started with pilot activities in a regional framework and is targeted at tsunami detection and warning systems being developed by various agencies. It includes development of the components of a prototype sea level station metadata web service and accompanying Google Earth-based client application, which use an XML-based schema to expose, at a minimum, information in the NOAA National Weather Service (NWS) Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) station database needed to use the PTWC's Tide Tool application. As identified in the Tsunami Data Management Report, the need also exists for long-term retention of the sea level station data. NOAA envisions that the retrospective water level data and metadata will also be available through web services, using an XML-based schema. Five high

  6. Guiding Users to Sea Level Change Data Through Content

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Quach, N.; Abercrombie, S. P.; Boening, C.; Brennan, H. P.; Gill, K. M.; Greguska, F. R., III; Huang, T.; Jackson, R.; Larour, E. Y.; Shaftel, H.; Tenenbaum, L. F.; Zlotnicki, V.; Boeck, A.; Moore, B.; Moore, J.

    2017-12-01

    The NASA Sea Level Change Portal (https://sealevel.nasa.gov) is an immersive and innovative web portal for sea level change research that addresses the needs of diverse audiences, from scientists across disparate disciplines to the general public to policy makers and businesses. Since sea level change research involves vast amounts of data from multiple fields, it becomes increasingly important to come up with novel and effective ways to guide users to the data they need. News articles published on the portal contains links to relevant data. The Missions section highlights missions and projects as well as provide a logical grouping of the data. Tools available on the portal, such as the Data Analysis Tool, a data visualization and high-performance environment for sea level analysis, and the Virtual Earth System Laboratory, a 3D simulation application, describes and links to the source data. With over 30K Facebook followers and over 23K Twitter follower, the portal outreach team also leverages social media to guide users to relevant data. This presentation focuses on how the portal uses news articles, mission and project pages, tools, and social media to connect users to the data.

  7. Measuring progress of the global sea level observing system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Woodworth, Philip L.; Aarup, Thorkild; Merrifield, Mark; Mitchum, Gary T.; Le Provost, Christian

    Sea level is such a fundamental parameter in the sciences of oceanography geophysics, and climate change, that in the mid-1980s, the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) established the Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS). GLOSS was to improve the quantity and quality of data provided to the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL), and thereby, data for input to studies of long-term sea level change by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It would also provide the key data needed for international programs, such as the World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) and later, the Climate Variability and Predictability Programme (CLIVAR).GLOSS is now one of the main observation components of the Joint Technical Commission for Oceanography and Marine Meteorology (JCOMM) of IOC and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Progress and deficiencies in GLOSS were presented in July to the 22nd IOC Assembly at UNESCO in Paris and are contained in the GLOSS Assessment Report (GAR) [IOC, 2003a].

  8. Sea level forecasts for Pacific Islands based on Satellite Altimetry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yoon, H.; Merrifield, M. A.; Thompson, P. R.; Widlansky, M. J.; Marra, J. J.

    2017-12-01

    Coastal flooding at tropical Pacific Islands often occurs when positive sea level anomalies coincide with high tides. To help mitigate this risk, a forecast tool for daily-averaged sea level anomalies is developed that can be added to predicted tides at tropical Pacific Island sites. The forecast takes advantage of the observed westward propagation that sea level anomalies exhibit over a range of time scales. The daily near-real time altimetry gridded data from Archiving, Validation, and Interpretation of Satellite Oceanographic (AVISO) is used to specify upstream sea level at each site, with lead times computed based on mode-one baroclinic Rossby wave speeds. To validate the forecast, hindcasts are compared to tide gauge and nearby AVISO gridded time series. The forecast skills exceed persistence at most stations out to a month or more lead time. The skill is highest at stations where eddy variability is relatively weak. The impacts on the forecasts due to varying propagation speed, decay time, and smoothing of the AVISO data are examined. In addition, the inclusion of forecast winds in a forced wave equation is compared to the freely propagating results. Case studies are presented for seasonally high tide events throughout the Pacific Island region.

  9. Impact of accelerated future global mean sea level rise on hypoxia in the Baltic Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meier, H. E. M.; Höglund, A.; Eilola, K.; Almroth-Rosell, E.

    2017-07-01

    Expanding hypoxia is today a major threat for many coastal seas around the world and disentangling its drivers is a large challenge for interdisciplinary research. Using a coupled physical-biogeochemical model we estimate the impact of past and accelerated future global mean sea level rise (GSLR) upon water exchange and oxygen conditions in a semi-enclosed, shallow sea. As a study site, the Baltic Sea was chosen that suffers today from eutrophication and from dead bottom zones due to (1) excessive nutrient loads from land, (2) limited water exchange with the world ocean and (3) perhaps other drivers like global warming. We show from model simulations for the period 1850-2008 that the impacts of past GSLR on the marine ecosystem were relatively small. If we assume for the end of the twenty-first century a GSLR of +0.5 m relative to today's mean sea level, the impact on the marine ecosystem may still be small. Such a GSLR corresponds approximately to the projected ensemble-mean value reported by the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. However, we conclude that GSLR should be considered in future high-end projections (>+1 m) for the Baltic Sea and other coastal seas with similar hydrographical conditions as in the Baltic because GSLR may lead to reinforced saltwater inflows causing higher salinity and increased vertical stratification compared to present-day conditions. Contrary to intuition, reinforced ventilation of the deep water does not lead to overall improved oxygen conditions but causes instead expanded dead bottom areas accompanied with increased internal phosphorus loads from the sediments and increased risk for cyanobacteria blooms.

  10. Regional sea level projections with observed gauge, altimeter and reconstructed data along China coast

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Du, L.; Shi, H.; Zhang, S.

    2017-12-01

    Acting as the typical shelf seas in northwest Pacific Ocean, regional sea level along China coasts exhibits complicated and multiscale spatial-temporal characteristics under circumstance of global change. In this paper, sea level variability is investigated with tide gauges records, satellite altimetry data, reconstructed sea surface height, and CMIP simulation fields. Sea level exhibits the interannual variability imposing on a remarkable sea level rising in the China seas and coastal region, although its seasonal signals are significant as the results of global ocean. Sea level exhibits faster rising rate during the satellite altimetry era, nearly twice to the rate during the last sixty years. AVISO data and reconstructed sea surface heights illustrate good correlation coefficient, more than 0.8. Interannual sea level variation is mainly modulated by the low-frequency variability of wind fields over northern Pacific Ocean by local and remote processes. Meanwhile sea level varies obviously by the transport fluctuation and bimodality path of Kuroshio. Its variability possibly linked to internal variability of the ocean-atmosphere system influenced by ENSO oscillation. China Sea level have been rising during the 20th century, and are projected to continue to rise during this century. Sea level can reach the highest extreme level in latter half of 21st century. Modeled sea level including regional sea level projection combined with the IPCC climate scenarios play a significant role on coastal storm surge evolution. The vulnerable regions along the ECS coast will suffer from the increasing storm damage with sea level variations.

  11. Investigating the influence of sea level oscillations in the Danish Straits on the Baltic Sea dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tikhonova, Natalia; Gusev, Anatoly; Diansky, Nikolay; Zakharchuk, Evgeny

    2016-04-01

    related to the distance between the measurement point and open boundary. For example, in the Gulfs of Finland and Riga, the 36hr harmonic has an amplitude substantially higher than in the open sea, and in the Stockholm area, this harmonic is at the noise level. The 40dy and 121dy harmonics have slightly lower amplitudes than the original prescribed signal, but they are almost unchanged while propagating further into the sea, and in all the investigated locations have almost identical peaks of spectral density. The 3dy and 6dy harmonics significantly lost their amplitude in all parts of the sea, and spectral density peaks are at the noise level. The simulation results showed us that the Danish straits do not filter 121dy and 40dy oscillations, and their amplitude does not decrease much. The 13dy, 6dy and 3dy oscillations significantly lose in amplitude and have no significant peaks of the spectral density. The 1.5dy harmonic propagates to the Gulfs of Finland and Riga, and increases in amplitude due to resonance at the natural frequency of the basin. It is suggested that, while Danish straits do not filter or transform frequency characteristics of oscillations propagated from the North Sea, but the Baltic Sea configuration may affect the magnitude and propagation extent of these oscillations. Thus, the fluctuations in the North Sea and the Danish Straits can significantly contribute to the Baltic Sea dynamics in the low-frequency range of the spectrum, and the periods of natural oscillations of the basin. The research was supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (grant № 16-05-00534) and Saint-Petersburg State University (grant №18.37.140.2014)

  12. Uncertainty estimates of altimetric Global Mean Sea Level timeseries

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scharffenberg, Martin; Hemming, Michael; Stammer, Detlef

    2016-04-01

    An attempt is being presented concerned with providing uncertainty measures for global mean sea level time series. For this purpose sea surface height (SSH) fields, simulated by the high resolution STORM/NCEP model for the period 1993 - 2010, were subsampled along altimeter tracks and processed similar to techniques used by five working groups to estimate GMSL. Results suggest that the spatial and temporal resolution have a substantial impact on GMSL estimates. Major impacts can especially result from the interpolation technique or the treatment of SSH outliers and easily lead to artificial temporal variability in the resulting time series.

  13. Sea-level and deep-sea-temperature variability over the past 5.3 million years.

    PubMed

    Rohling, E J; Foster, G L; Grant, K M; Marino, G; Roberts, A P; Tamisiea, M E; Williams, F

    2014-04-24

    Ice volume (and hence sea level) and deep-sea temperature are key measures of global climate change. Sea level has been documented using several independent methods over the past 0.5 million years (Myr). Older periods, however, lack such independent validation; all existing records are related to deep-sea oxygen isotope (δ(18)O) data that are influenced by processes unrelated to sea level. For deep-sea temperature, only one continuous high-resolution (Mg/Ca-based) record exists, with related sea-level estimates, spanning the past 1.5 Myr. Here we present a novel sea-level reconstruction, with associated estimates of deep-sea temperature, which independently validates the previous 0-1.5 Myr reconstruction and extends it back to 5.3 Myr ago. We find that deep-sea temperature and sea level generally decreased through time, but distinctly out of synchrony, which is remarkable given the importance of ice-albedo feedbacks on the radiative forcing of climate. In particular, we observe a large temporal offset during the onset of Plio-Pleistocene ice ages, between a marked cooling step at 2.73 Myr ago and the first major glaciation at 2.15 Myr ago. Last, we tentatively infer that ice sheets may have grown largest during glacials with more modest reductions in deep-sea temperature.

  14. Probabilistic reanalysis of twentieth-century sea-level rise.

    PubMed

    Hay, Carling C; Morrow, Eric; Kopp, Robert E; Mitrovica, Jerry X

    2015-01-22

    Estimating and accounting for twentieth-century global mean sea level (GMSL) rise is critical to characterizing current and future human-induced sea-level change. Several previous analyses of tide gauge records--employing different methods to accommodate the spatial sparsity and temporal incompleteness of the data and to constrain the geometry of long-term sea-level change--have concluded that GMSL rose over the twentieth century at a mean rate of 1.6 to 1.9 millimetres per year. Efforts to account for this rate by summing estimates of individual contributions from glacier and ice-sheet mass loss, ocean thermal expansion, and changes in land water storage fall significantly short in the period before 1990. The failure to close the budget of GMSL during this period has led to suggestions that several contributions may have been systematically underestimated. However, the extent to which the limitations of tide gauge analyses have affected estimates of the GMSL rate of change is unclear. Here we revisit estimates of twentieth-century GMSL rise using probabilistic techniques and find a rate of GMSL rise from 1901 to 1990 of 1.2 ± 0.2 millimetres per year (90% confidence interval). Based on individual contributions tabulated in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, this estimate closes the twentieth-century sea-level budget. Our analysis, which combines tide gauge records with physics-based and model-derived geometries of the various contributing signals, also indicates that GMSL rose at a rate of 3.0 ± 0.7 millimetres per year between 1993 and 2010, consistent with prior estimates from tide gauge records.The increase in rate relative to the 1901-90 trend is accordingly larger than previously thought; this revision may affect some projections of future sea-level rise.

  15. Sea level during the Phanerozoic - what causes the fluctuations

    SciTech Connect

    Harrison, C.G.A.

    1985-01-01

    All possible causes of sea level change have been analyzed in order to explain the fall of sea level since the Cretaceous. The most important effect is the decrease in volume of the ridge crests due to an overall decrease in the rate of spreading since the Cretaceous. Other factors in order of decreasing importance are the reduction of the thermal bulge which accompanied the episode of Pacific volcanism between 110 and 70 my bp, the production of continental ice, the effect of the collision of India with Asia, and cooling of the ocean water. Sedimentation variation in the deepmore » ocean has the effect of raising sea level a modest amount. The net variation in sea level during the past 80 million years has been a reduction by about 280 m after having allowed for isostatic adjustment of the ocean floor. This is considerably larger, than sea level calculated from the amount of continental flooding, and it is proposed that the discrepancy is due to a change in the continental hypsographic curve following the breakup of Pangea. This hypothesis is born out by studies of flooding during the Phanerozoic which reveal that flooding was very low at the beginning of the Mesozoic during a time of continental agglomeration, and high during much of the Paleozoic, which was a time of continental separation. In the Cambrian there is evidence for an increase in flooding with time, and at the beginning of the Cambrian flooding was not much greater than at the beginning of the Mesozoic, suggesting that it marked a time just subsequent to the break up of a super continent.« less

  16. Uncertainty Quantification for Ice Sheet Science and Sea Level Projections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boening, C.; Schlegel, N.; Limonadi, D.; Schodlok, M.; Seroussi, H. L.; Larour, E. Y.; Watkins, M. M.

    2017-12-01

    In order to better quantify uncertainties in global mean sea level rise projections and in particular upper bounds, we aim at systematically evaluating the contributions from ice sheets and potential for extreme sea level rise due to sudden ice mass loss. Here, we take advantage of established uncertainty quantification tools embedded within the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) as well as sensitivities to ice/ocean interactions using melt rates and melt potential derived from MITgcm/ECCO2. With the use of these tools, we conduct Monte-Carlo style sampling experiments on forward simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet, by varying internal parameters and boundary conditions of the system over both extreme and credible worst-case ranges. Uncertainty bounds for climate forcing are informed by CMIP5 ensemble precipitation and ice melt estimates for year 2100, and uncertainty bounds for ocean melt rates are derived from a suite of regional sensitivity experiments using MITgcm. Resulting statistics allow us to assess how regional uncertainty in various parameters affect model estimates of century-scale sea level rise projections. The results inform efforts to a) isolate the processes and inputs that are most responsible for determining ice sheet contribution to sea level; b) redefine uncertainty brackets for century-scale projections; and c) provide a prioritized list of measurements, along with quantitative information on spatial and temporal resolution, required for reducing uncertainty in future sea level rise projections. Results indicate that ice sheet mass loss is dependent on the spatial resolution of key boundary conditions - such as bedrock topography and melt rates at the ice-ocean interface. This work is performed at and supported by the California Institute of Technology's Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Supercomputing time is also supported through a contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Cryosphere program.

  17. Evidence from the Seychelles of Last Interglacial Sea Level Oscillations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vyverberg, K.; Dutton, A.; Dechnik, B.; Webster, J.; Zwartz, D.

    2014-12-01

    Several studies indicate that sea level oscillated during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5e, but the details of these scenarios, including the number of sea level oscillations, are still debated. We lack a detailed understanding of the sensitivity of the large polar ice sheets to changes in temperature that could result in eustatic sea level oscillations. Because the Seychelles are located far from the margins of the Last Glacial Maximum northern hemisphere ice sheets, they have not been subjected to glacial isostatic adjustment, and have been tectonically stable since the Last Interglacial period; therefore, they provide a robust record of eustatic sea level during MIS 5e. All of the outcrops we examined contain unconformities and/or sharp transitions between facies, though the nature of these boundaries varies between sites. In some outcrops we observed a hardground comprising fine-grained, mollusc-rich sediment layer between distinct generations of in situ coralgal framework. In one outcrop, this succession was observed twice, where two generations of reef growth were each capped by a strongly indurated fine-grained, mollusc-rich sediment layer. At the site with the greatest vertical extent of outcrop, there is a marked difference in the taxonomic composition of the coral community above and below an unconformable surface, but the indurated fine-grained, sediment layer observed elsewhere was absent. Most of the other outcrops we studied contained a common succession of facies from in situ reef units overlain by cemented coral rubble. In two dated outcrops, the age of corals above and below the rubble layer are the same age. The hardgrounds and rubble layers may represent ephemeral exposure of the reef units during two drops in sea level. The inference of multiple meter-scale oscillations during the MIS 5e highstand indicates a more dynamic cryosphere than the present interglacial, although the climatic threshold for more volatile polar ice sheets is not yet clear.

  18. Coastal sea level measurements using a single geodetic GPS receiver

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Larson, Kristine M.; Löfgren, Johan S.; Haas, Rüdiger

    2013-04-01

    This paper presents a method to derive local sea level variations using data from a single geodetic-quality Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) receiver using GPS (Global Positioning System) signals. This method is based on multipath theory for specular reflections and the use of Signal-to-Noise Ratio (SNR) data. The technique could be valuable for altimeter calibration and validation. Data from two test sites, a dedicated GPS tide gauge at the Onsala Space Observatory (OSO) in Sweden and the Friday Harbor GPS site of the EarthScope Plate Boundary Observatory (PBO) in USA, are analyzed. The sea level results are compared to independently observed sea level data from nearby and in situ tide gauges. For OSO, the Root-Mean-Square (RMS) agreement is better than 5 cm, while it is in the order of 10 cm for Friday Harbor. The correlation coefficients are better than 0.97 for both sites. For OSO, the SNR-based results are also compared with results from a geodetic analysis of GPS data of a two receivers/antennae tide gauge installation. The SNR-based analysis results in a slightly worse RMS agreement with respect to the independent tide gauge data than the geodetic analysis (4.8 cm and 4.0 cm, respectively). However, it provides results even for rough sea surface conditions when the two receivers/antennae installation no longer records the necessary data for a geodetic analysis.

  19. The application of multilevel modeling in the analysis of longitudinal periodontal data--part I: absolute levels of disease.

    PubMed

    Tu, Yu-Kang; Gilthorpe, Mark S; Griffiths, Gareth S; Maddick, Ian H; Eaton, Kenneth A; Johnson, Newell W

    2004-01-01

    Statistical analyses of periodontal data that average site measurements to subject mean values are unable to explore the site-specific nature of periodontal diseases. Multilevel modeling (MLM) overcomes this, taking hierarchical structure into account. MLM was used to investigate longitudinal relationships between the outcomes of lifetime cumulative attachment loss (LCAL) and probing depth (PD) in relation to potential risk factors for periodontal disease progression. One hundred males (mean age 17 years) received a comprehensive periodontal examination at baseline and at 12 and 30 months. The resulting data were analyzed in two stages. In stage one (reported here), the absolute levels of disease were analyzed in relation to potential risk factors; in stage two (reported in a second paper), changes in disease patterns over time were analyzed in relation to the same risk factors. Each approach yielded substantially different insights. For absolute levels of disease, subject-level risk factors (covariates) had limited prediction for LCAL/PD throughout the 30-month observation period. Tooth position demonstrated a near linear relationship for both outcomes, with disease increasing from anterior to posterior teeth. Sites with subgingival calculus and bleeding on probing demonstrated more LCAL and PD, and supragingival calculus had an apparently protective effect. Covariates had more "explanatory power" for the variation in PD than for the variation in LCAL, suggesting that LCAL and PD might be generally associated with a different profile of covariates. This study provides, for a relatively young cohort, considerable insights into the factors associated with early-life periodontal disease and its progression at all levels of the natural hierarchy of sites within teeth within subjects.

  20. Searching for Eustasy in Pliocene Sea-Level Records (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Raymo, M. E.; Hearty, P. J.; O'Leary, M.; Mitrovica, J.; Deconto, R.; Inglis, J. D.; Robinson, M. M.

    2010-12-01

    It is widely accepted that greenhouse gas-induced warming over the next few decades to centuries could lead to a rise in sea level due to melting ice caps. Yet despite the enormous social and economic consequences for society, our ability to predict the likelihood and location of future melting is hampered by an insufficient theoretical and historical understanding of ice sheet behavior in the past. Various lines of evidence suggest that CO2 levels in the mid-Pliocene were between 350-450 ppm, similar to today, and it is important that significant effort be made to confirm these estimates, especially in light of policy discussions that seek to determine a “safe” level of atmospheric CO2. Likewise, accurate estimates of mid-Pliocene sea levels are necessary if we are to better constrain Greenland and Antarctic ice sheet stability in a slightly warmer world. Current published estimates of mid-Pliocene sea level (during times of maximum insolation forcing) range from +5m to >+40m (relative to present) reflecting a huge range of uncertainty in the sensitivity of polar ice sheets, including the East Antarctic Ice Sheet, to a modest global warming. Accurate determination of the maximum mid-Pliocene sea level rise is needed if climate and ice sheet modelers are to better assess the robustness of models used to predict the effects of anthropogenic global warming. Pliocene ice volume/highstand estimates fall into two classes, those derived from geologic evidence of past high stands and those derived from geochemical proxies of ice-sensitive changes in ocean chemistry. Both methods have significant errors and uncertainties associated with them. Recent multidisciplinary work along the intra-plate continental margin of Roe Plain (~250 x 30 km) on the southern coastline of Western Australia provides additional constraints on sea level during the mid-Pliocene. Outcroppings of shore-proximal marine deposits are observed at two distinct elevations across the plain, +28 ± 2 m

  1. Is an absolute level of cortical beta suppression required for proper movement? Magnetoencephalographic evidence from healthy aging.

    PubMed

    Heinrichs-Graham, Elizabeth; Wilson, Tony W

    2016-07-01

    Previous research has connected a specific pattern of beta oscillatory activity to proper motor execution, but no study to date has directly examined how resting beta levels affect motor-related beta oscillatory activity in the motor cortex. Understanding this relationship is imperative to determining the basic mechanisms of motor control, as well as the impact of pathological beta oscillations on movement execution. In the current study, we used magnetoencephalography (MEG) and a complex movement paradigm to quantify resting beta activity and movement-related beta oscillations in the context of healthy aging. We chose healthy aging as a model because preliminary evidence suggests that beta activity is elevated in older adults, and thus by examining older and younger adults we were able to naturally vary resting beta levels. To this end, healthy younger and older participants were recorded during motor performance and at rest. Using beamforming, we imaged the peri-movement beta event-related desynchronization (ERD) and extracted virtual sensors from the peak voxels, which enabled absolute and relative beta power to be assessed. Interestingly, absolute beta power during the pre-movement baseline was much stronger in older relative to younger adults, and older adults also exhibited proportionally large beta desynchronization (ERD) responses during motor planning and execution compared to younger adults. Crucially, we found a significant relationship between spontaneous (resting) beta power and beta ERD magnitude in both primary motor cortices, above and beyond the effects of age. A similar link was found between beta ERD magnitude and movement duration. These findings suggest a direct linkage between beta reduction during movement and spontaneous activity in the motor cortex, such that as spontaneous beta power increases, a greater reduction in beta activity is required to execute movement. We propose that, on an individual level, the primary motor cortices have an

  2. Geodetic infrastructure at the Barcelona harbour for sea level monitoring

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martinez-Benjamin, Juan Jose; Gili, Josep; Lopez, Rogelio; Tapia, Ana; Pros, Francesc; Palau, Vicenc; Perez, Begona

    2015-04-01

    The presentation is directed to the description of the actual geodetic infrastructure of Barcelona harbour with three tide gauges of different technologies for sea level determination and contribution to regional sea level rise and understanding past and present sea level rise in the Barcelona harbour. It is intended that the overall system will constitute a CGPS Station of the ESEAS (European Sea Level) and TIGA (GPS Tide Gauge Benchmark Monitoring) networks. At Barcelona harbour there is a MIROS radar tide gauge belonging to Puertos del Estado (Spanish Harbours).The radar sensor is over the water surface, on a L-shaped structure which elevates it a few meters above the quay shelf. 1-min data are transmitted to the ENAGAS Control Center by cable and then sent each 1 min to Puertos del Estado by e-mail. The information includes wave forescast (mean period, significant wave height, sea level, etc.This sensor also measures agitation and sends wave parameters each 20 min. There is a GPS station Leica Geosystems GRX1200 GG Pro and antenna AX 1202 GG. The Control Tower of the Port of Barcelona is situated in the North dike of the so-called Energy Pier in the Barcelona harbor (Spain). This tower has different kind of antennas for navigation monitoring and a GNSS permanent station. As the tower is founded in reclaimed land, and because its metallic structure, the 50 m building is subjected to diverse movements, including periodic fluctuations due to temperature changes. In this contribution the 2009, 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014 the necessary monitoring campaigns are described. In the framework of a Spanish Space Project, the instrumentation of sea level measurements has been improved by providing the Barcelona site with a radar tide gauge Datamar 2000C from Geonica S.L. in June 2014 near an acoustic tide gauge from the Barcelona Harbour installed in 2013. Precision levelling has been made several times in the last two years because the tower is founded in reclaimed land and

  3. Modelling sea level data from China and Malay-Thailand to estimate Holocene ice-volume equivalent sea level change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bradley, Sarah L.; Milne, Glenn A.; Horton, Benjamin P.; Zong, Yongqiang

    2016-04-01

    This study presents a new model of Holocene ice-volume equivalent sea level (ESL), extending a previously published global ice sheet model (Bassett et al., 2005), which was unconstrained from 10 kyr BP to present. This new model was developed by comparing relative sea level (RSL) predictions from a glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) model to a suite of Holocene sea level index points from China and Malay-Thailand. Three consistent data-model misfits were found using the Bassett et al. (2005) model: an over-prediction in the height of maximum sea level, the timing of this maximum, and the temporal variation of sea level from the time of the highstand to present. The data-model misfits were examined for a large suite of ESL scenarios and a range of earth model parameters to determine an optimum model of Holocene ESL. This model is characterised by a slowdown in melting at ∼7 kyr BP, associated with the final deglaciation of the Laurentide Ice Sheet, followed by a continued rise in ESL until ∼1 kyr BP of ∼5.8 m associated with melting from the Antarctic Ice Sheet. It was not possible to identify an earth viscosity model that provided good fits for both regions; with the China data preferring viscosity values in the upper mantle of less than 1.5 × 1020 Pa s and the Malay-Thailand data preferring greater values. We suggest that this inference of a very weak upper mantle for the China data originates from the nearby subduction zone and Hainan Plume. The low viscosity values may also account for the lack of a well-defined highstand at the China sites.

  4. Late Holocene sea level variability and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cronin, Thomas M.; Farmer, Jesse R.; Marzen, R. E.; Thomas, E.; Varekamp, J.C.

    2014-01-01

    Pre-twentieth century sea level (SL) variability remains poorly understood due to limits of tide gauge records, low temporal resolution of tidal marsh records, and regional anomalies caused by dynamic ocean processes, notably multidecadal changes in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). We examined SL and AMOC variability along the eastern United States over the last 2000 years, using a SL curve constructed from proxy sea surface temperature (SST) records from Chesapeake Bay, and twentieth century SL-sea surface temperature (SST) relations derived from tide gauges and instrumental SST. The SL curve shows multidecadal-scale variability (20–30 years) during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and Little Ice Age (LIA), as well as the twentieth century. During these SL oscillations, short-term rates ranged from 2 to 4 mm yr−1, roughly similar to those of the last few decades. These oscillations likely represent internal modes of climate variability related to AMOC variability and originating at high latitudes, although the exact mechanisms remain unclear. Results imply that dynamic ocean changes, in addition to thermosteric, glacio-eustatic, or glacio-isostatic processes are an inherent part of SL variability in coastal regions, even during millennial-scale climate oscillations such as the MCA and LIA and should be factored into efforts that use tide gauges and tidal marsh sediments to understand global sea level rise.

  5. Speleothem evidence for MIS 5c and 5a sea level above modern level at Bermuda

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wainer, Karine A. I.; Rowe, Mark P.; Thomas, Alexander L.; Mason, Andrew J.; Williams, Bruce; Tamisiea, Mark E.; Williams, Felicity H.; Düsterhus, André; Henderson, Gideon M.

    2017-01-01

    The history of sea level in regions impacted by glacio-isostasy provides constraints on past ice-sheet distribution and on the characteristics of deformation of the planet in response to loading. The Western North Atlantic-Caribbean region, and Bermuda in particular, is strongly affected by the glacial forebulge that forms as a result of the Laurentide ice-sheet present during glacial periods. The timing of growth of speleothems, at elevations close to sea level can provide records of minimum relative sea level (RSL). In this study we used U-Th dating to precisely date growth periods of speleothems from Bermuda which were found close to modern-day sea level. Results suggest that RSL at this location was above modern during MIS5e, MIS5c and MIS5a. These data support controversial previous indications that Bermudian RSL was significantly higher than RSL at other locations during MIS 5c and MIS 5a. We confirm that it is possible to explain a wide range of MIS5c-a relative sea levels observed across the Western North Atlantic-Caribbean in glacial isostatic adjustment models, but only with a limited range of mantle deformation constants. This study demonstrates the particular power of Bermuda as a gauge for response of the forebulge to glacial loading, and demonstrates the potential for highstands at this location to be significantly higher than in other regions, helping to explain the high sea levels observed for Bermuda from earlier highstands.

  6. Extreme sea levels on the rise along Europe's coasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vousdoukas, Michalis I.; Mentaschi, Lorenzo; Voukouvalas, Evangelos; Verlaan, Martin; Feyen, Luc

    2017-03-01

    Future extreme sea levels (ESLs) and flood risk along European coasts will be strongly impacted by global warming. Yet, comprehensive projections of ESL that include mean sea level (MSL), tides, waves, and storm surges do not exist. Here, we show changes in all components of ESLs until 2100 in view of climate change. We find that by the end of this century, the 100-year ESL along Europe's coastlines is on average projected to increase by 57 cm for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP)4.5 and 81 cm for RCP8.5. The North Sea region is projected to face the highest increase in ESLs, amounting to nearly 1 m under RCP8.5 by 2100, followed by the Baltic Sea and Atlantic coasts of the UK and Ireland. Relative sea level rise (RSLR) is shown to be the main driver of the projected rise in ESL, with increasing dominance toward the end of the century and for the high-concentration pathway. Changes in storm surges and waves enhance the effects of RSLR along the majority of northern European coasts, locally with contributions up to 40%. In southern Europe, episodic extreme events tend to stay stable, except along the Portuguese coast and the Gulf of Cadiz where reductions in surge and wave extremes offset RSLR by 20-30%. By the end of this century, 5 million Europeans currently under threat of a 100-year ESL could be annually at risk from coastal flooding under high-end warming. The presented dataset is available through this link: http://data.jrc.ec.europa.eu/collection/LISCOAST.

  7. Implications of Sea Level Rise on Coastal Flood Hazards

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roeber, V.; Li, N.; Cheung, K.; Lane, P.; Evans, R. L.; Donnelly, J. P.; Ashton, A. D.

    2012-12-01

    Recent global and local projections suggest the sea level will be on the order of 1 m or higher than the current level by the end of the century. Coastal communities and ecosystems in low-lying areas are vulnerable to impacts resulting from hurricane or large swell events in combination with sea-level rise. This study presents the implementation and results of an integrated numerical modeling package to delineate coastal inundation due to storm landfalls at future sea levels. The modeling package utilizes a suite of numerical models to capture both large-scale phenomena in the open ocean and small-scale processes in coastal areas. It contains four components to simulate (1) meteorological conditions, (2) astronomical tides and surge, (3) wave generation, propagation, and nearshore transformation, and (4) surf-zone processes and inundation onto dry land associated with a storm event. Important aspects of this package are the two-way coupling of a spectral wave model and a storm surge model as well as a detailed representation of surf and swash zone dynamics by a higher-order Boussinesq-type wave model. The package was validated with field data from Hurricane Ivan of 2005 on the US Gulf coast and applied to tropical and extratropical storm scenarios respectively at Eglin, Florida and Camp Lejeune, North Carolina. The results show a nonlinear increase of storm surge level and nearshore wave energy with a rising sea level. The exacerbated flood hazard can have major consequences for coastal communities with respect to erosion and damage to infrastructure.

  8. Reconciling projections of the Antarctic contribution to sea level rise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Edwards, Tamsin; Holden, Philip; Edwards, Neil; Wernecke, Andreas

    2017-04-01

    Two recent studies of the Antarctic contribution to sea level rise this century had best estimates that differed by an order of magnitude (around 10 cm and 1 m by 2100). The first, Ritz et al. (2015), used a model calibrated with satellite data, giving a 5% probability of exceeding 30cm by 2100 for sea level rise due to Antarctic instability. The second, DeConto and Pollard (2016), used a model evaluated with reconstructions of palaeo-sea level. They did not estimate probabilities, but using a simple assumption here about the distribution shape gives up to a 5% chance of Antarctic contribution exceeding 2.3 m this century with total sea level rise approaching 3 m. If robust, this would have very substantial implications for global adaptation to climate change. How are we to make sense of this apparent inconsistency? How much is down to the data - does the past tell us we will face widespread and rapid Antarctic ice losses in the future? How much is due to the mechanism of rapid ice loss ('cliff failure') proposed in the latter paper, or other parameterisation choices in these low resolution models (GRISLI and PISM, respectively)? How much is due to choices made in the ensemble design and calibration? How do these projections compare with high resolution, grounding line resolving models such as BISICLES? Could we reduce the huge uncertainties in the palaeo-study? Emulation provides a powerful tool for understanding these questions and reconciling the projections. By describing the three numerical ice sheet models with statistical models, we can re-analyse the ensembles and re-do the calibrations under a common statistical framework. This reduces uncertainty in the PISM study because it allows massive sampling of the parameter space, which reduces the sensitivity to reconstructed palaeo-sea level values and also narrows the probability intervals because the simple assumption about distribution shape above is no longer needed. We present reconciled probabilistic

  9. Constraints on the thermosteric component of Last Interglacial sea level

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shackleton, S. A.; Severinghaus, J. P.; Petrenko, V. V.; Dyonisius, M.; Hmiel, B.

    2016-12-01

    With global temperatures 1 to 2°C above preindustrial, but sea level exceeding current levels by upwards of 8 meters, the Last Interglacial (LIG) period at 125 ka may provide valuable insight into Earth system constraints under future global warming. The relative contributions of thermal expansion and ice sheet loss to sea level rise over this period are of particular interest in seeking to improve sea level projections in the upcoming decades and beyond. Here we quantify this thermosteric component from a reconstruction of global ocean temperature over the LIG from atmospheric noble gases trapped in glacial ice. With no major sources or sinks outside of the ocean-atmosphere system, the relative changes in the atmospheric content of krypton, xenon, and nitrogen reflect changes in ocean gas storage. This storage is primarily governed by solubility and ocean temperature, making dKr/N2, dXe/N2­, and dXe/Kr unique tracers of globally integrated oceanic heat content. However, processes within the firn can fractionate these gases, and firn effects on these tracers must be removed to derive an ocean temperature. We present high precision measurements of these gas ratios along with isotopes of argon, krypton, and xenon in firn air withdrawn from the snowpack at Summit, Greenland. We use these isotopes to identify sources of fractionation within the firn and quantify their effects on the noble gas tracers, enabling a reconstruction of Last Interglacial ocean temperature.

  10. Holocene changes in sea level: Evidence in Micronesia

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Shepard, F.P.; Curray, Joseph R.; Newman, W.A.; Bloom, A.L.; Newell, N.D.; Tracey, J.I.; Veeh, H.H.

    1967-01-01

    Investigation of 33 islands, scattered widely across the Caroline and Marshall Island groups in the Central Pacific revealed no emerged reefs in which corals had unquestionably formed in situ, or other direct evidence of postglacial high stands of sea level. Low unconsolidated rock terraces and ridges of reef-flat islands, mostly lying between tide levels, were composed of rubble conglomerates; carbon-14 dating of 11 samples from the conglomerates so far may suggest a former slightly higher sea level (nine samples range between 1890 and 3450 and one approaches 4500 years ago). However, recent hurricanes have produced ridges of comparable height and material, and in the same areas relics from World War II have been found cemented in place. Thus these datings do not in themselves necessarily indicate formerly higher sea levels. Rubble tracts are produced by storms under present conditions without any change in datum, and there seems to be no compelling evidence that they were not so developed during various periods in the past.

  11. Nest inundation from sea-level rise threatens sea turtle population viability.

    PubMed

    Pike, David A; Roznik, Elizabeth A; Bell, Ian

    2015-07-01

    Contemporary sea-level rise will inundate coastal habitats with seawater more frequently, disrupting the life cycles of terrestrial fauna well before permanent habitat loss occurs. Sea turtles are reliant on low-lying coastal habitats worldwide for nesting, where eggs buried in the sand remain vulnerable to inundation until hatching. We show that saltwater inundation directly lowers the viability of green turtle eggs (Chelonia mydas) collected from the world's largest green turtle nesting rookery at Raine Island, Australia, which is undergoing enigmatic decline. Inundation for 1 or 3 h reduced egg viability by less than 10%, whereas inundation for 6 h reduced viability by approximately 30%. All embryonic developmental stages were vulnerable to mortality from saltwater inundation. Although the hatchlings that emerged from inundated eggs displayed normal physical and behavioural traits, hypoxia during incubation could influence other aspects of the physiology or behaviour of developing embryos, such as learning or spatial orientation. Saltwater inundation can directly lower hatching success, but it does not completely explain the consistently low rates of hatchling production observed on Raine Island. More frequent nest inundation associated with sea-level rise will increase variability in sea turtle hatching success spatially and temporally, due to direct and indirect impacts of saltwater inundation on developing embryos.

  12. Nest inundation from sea-level rise threatens sea turtle population viability

    PubMed Central

    Pike, David A.; Roznik, Elizabeth A.; Bell, Ian

    2015-01-01

    Contemporary sea-level rise will inundate coastal habitats with seawater more frequently, disrupting the life cycles of terrestrial fauna well before permanent habitat loss occurs. Sea turtles are reliant on low-lying coastal habitats worldwide for nesting, where eggs buried in the sand remain vulnerable to inundation until hatching. We show that saltwater inundation directly lowers the viability of green turtle eggs (Chelonia mydas) collected from the world's largest green turtle nesting rookery at Raine Island, Australia, which is undergoing enigmatic decline. Inundation for 1 or 3 h reduced egg viability by less than 10%, whereas inundation for 6 h reduced viability by approximately 30%. All embryonic developmental stages were vulnerable to mortality from saltwater inundation. Although the hatchlings that emerged from inundated eggs displayed normal physical and behavioural traits, hypoxia during incubation could influence other aspects of the physiology or behaviour of developing embryos, such as learning or spatial orientation. Saltwater inundation can directly lower hatching success, but it does not completely explain the consistently low rates of hatchling production observed on Raine Island. More frequent nest inundation associated with sea-level rise will increase variability in sea turtle hatching success spatially and temporally, due to direct and indirect impacts of saltwater inundation on developing embryos. PMID:26587269

  13. Holocene sea level and climate change in the Black Sea: Multiple marine incursions related to freshwater discharge events

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Martin, R.E.; Leorri, E.; McLaughlin, P.P.

    2007-01-01

    Repeated marine invasions of the Black Sea during the Holocene have been inferred by many eastern scientists as resulting from episodes of marine inflow from the Mediterranean beneath a brackish outflow from the Black Sea. We support this scenario but a fundamental question remains: What caused the repeated marine invasions? We offer an hypothesis for the repeated marine invasions of the Black Sea based on: (1) the overall similarity of sea-level curves from both tectonically quiescent and active margins of the Black Sea and their similarity to a sequence stratigraphic record from the US mid-Atlantic coast. The similarity of the records from two widely-separated regions suggests their common response to documented Holocene climate ocean-atmosphere reorganizations (coolings); (2) the fact that in the modern Black Sea, freshwater runoff from surrounding rivers dominates over evaporation, so that excess runoff might have temporarily raised Black Sea level (although the Black Sea would have remained brackish). Following the initial invasion of the Black Sea by marine Mediterranean waters (through the Marmara Sea) in the early Holocene, repeated marine incursions were modulated, or perhaps even caused, by freshwater discharge to the Black Sea. Climatic amelioration (warming) following each documented ocean-atmosphere reorganization during the Holocene likely shifted precipitation patterns in the surrounding region and caused mountain glaciers to retreat, increasing freshwater runoff above modern values and temporarily contributing to an increase of Black Sea level. Freshwater-to-brackish water discharges into the Black Sea initially slowed marine inflow but upon mixing of runoff with more marine waters beneath them and their eventual exit through the Bosphorus, marine inflow increased again, accounting for the repeated marine invasions. The magnitude of the hydrologic and sea-level fluctuations became increasingly attenuated through the Holocene, as reflected by Black

  14. PERSPECTIVE: The tripping points of sea level rise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hecht, Alan D.

    2009-12-01

    When President Nixon created the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in 1970 he said the environment must be perceived as a single, interrelated system. We are nowhere close to achieving this vision. Jim Titus and his colleagues [1] highlight one example of where one set of regulations or permits may be in conflict with another and where regulations were crafted in the absence of understanding the cumulative impact of global warming. The issue here is how to deal with the impacts of climate change on sea level and the latter's impact on wetland polices, clean water regulations, and ecosystem services. The Titus paper could also be called `The tripping points of sea level rise'. Titus and his colleagues have looked at the impact of such sea level rise on the east coast of the United States. Adaptive responses include costly large- scale investment in shore protection (e.g. dikes, sand replenishment) and/or ecosystem migration (retreat), where coastal ecosystems move inland. Shore protection is limited by available funds, while ecosystem migrations are limited by available land use. The driving factor is the high probability of sea level rise due to climate change. Estimating sea level rise is difficult because of local land and coastal dynamics including rising or falling land areas. It is estimated that sea level could rise between 8 inches and 2 feet by the end of this century [2]. The extensive data analysis done by Titus et al of current land use is important because, as they observe, `property owners and land use agencies have generally not decided how they will respond to sea level rise, nor have they prepared maps delineating where shore protection and retreat are likely'. This is the first of two `tripping points', namely the need for adaptive planning for a pending environmental challenge that will create economic and environment conflict among land owners, federal and state agencies, and businesses. One way to address this gap in adaptive management

  15. Flooded! An Investigation of Sea-Level Rise in a Changing Climate

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gillette, Brandon; Hamilton, Cheri

    2011-01-01

    Explore how melting ice sheets affect global sea levels. Sea-level rise (SLR) is a rise in the water level of the Earth's oceans. There are two major kinds of ice in the polar regions: sea ice and land ice. Land ice contributes to SLR and sea ice does not. This article explores the characteristics of sea ice and land ice and provides some hands-on…

  16. Physiological implications of altitude training for endurance performance at sea level: a review.

    PubMed Central

    Bailey, D M; Davies, B

    1997-01-01

    training and accelerate performance improvements after return to sea level. This has stimulated an exponential increase in scientific research, and, since 1984, 22 major reviews have summarised the physiological implications of altitude training for both aerobic and anaerobic performance at altitude and after return to sea level. Of these reviews, only eight have specifically focused on physical performance changes after return to sea level, the most comprehensive of which was recently written by Wolski et al. Few reviews have considered the potentially less favourable physiological responses to moderate altitude exposure, which include decreases in absolute training intensity, decreased plasma volume, depression of haemopoiesis and increased haemolysis, increases in sympathetically mediated glycogen depletion at altitude, and increased respiratory muscle work after return to sea level. In addition, there is a risk of developing more serious medical complications at altitude, which include acute mountain sickness, pulmonary oedema, cardiac arrhythmias, and cerebral hypoxia. The possible implications of changes in immune function at altitude have also been largely ignored, despite accumulating evidence of hypoxia mediated immunosuppression. In general, altitude training has been shown to improve performance at altitude, whereas no unequivocal evidence exists to support the claim that performance at sea level is improved. Table 1 summarises the theoretical advantages and disadvantages of altitude training for sea level performance. This review summarises the physiological rationale for altitude training as a means of enhancing endurance performance after return to sea level. Factors that have been shown to affect the acclimatisation process and the subsequent implications for exercise performance at sea level will also be discussed. Studies were located using five major database searches, which included Medline, Embase, Science Citation Index, Sports Discus, and Sport, in

  17. A near uniform basin-wide sea level fluctuation over the Japan/East Sea: A semienclosed sea with multiple straits

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Seung-Bum; Fukumori, Ichiro

    2008-06-01

    Sea level of the Japan/East Sea observed by the TOPEX/Poseidon (T/P) satellite altimeter is analyzed using a 1/4°-resolution ocean general circulation model. A significant fraction of the Japan/East Sea sea level variability is found to be spatially uniform with periods ranging from 20 d to a year. The model simulation is consistent with T/P records in terms of the basin-wide sea level fluctuation's spectral energy and coherence. The simulation indicates that the changes are barotropic in nature and controlled, notably at high frequencies, by the net mass transport through the straits of the Japan/East Sea driven by winds in the vicinity of the Korea/Tsushima and Soya Straits. A series of barotropic simulations suggest that the sea level fluctuations are the result of a dynamic balance at the straits among near-strait winds, friction, and geostrophic control. The basin-wide sea level response is a linear superposition of changes due to winds near the individual straits. In particular, a basin-wide sea level response can be established by winds near either one of the straits alone. For the specific geometry and winds, winds near the Soya Strait have a larger impact on the Japan/East Sea mean sea level than those near the Korea/Tsushima Strait.

  18. The absolute dynamic ocean topography (ADOT)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bosch, Wolfgang; Savcenko, Roman

    The sea surface slopes relative to the geoid (an equipotential surface) basically carry the in-formation on the absolute velocity field of the surface circulation. Pure oceanographic models may remain unspecific with respect to the absolute level of the ocean topography. In contrast, the geodetic approach to estimate the ocean topography as difference between sea level and the geoid gives by definition an absolute dynamic ocean topography (ADOT). This approach requires, however, a consistent treatment of geoid and sea surface heights, the first being usually derived from a band limited spherical harmonic series of the Earth gravity field and the second observed with much higher spectral resolution by satellite altimetry. The present contribution shows a procedure for estimating the ADOT along the altimeter profiles, preserving as much sea surface height details as the consistency w.r.t. the geoid heights will allow. The consistent treatment at data gaps and the coast is particular demanding and solved by a filter correction. The ADOT profiles are inspected for their innocent properties towards the coast and compared to external estimates of the ocean topography or the velocity field of the surface circulation as derived, for example, by ARGO floats.

  19. The Future of GLOSS Sea Level Data Archaeology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jevrejeva, S.; Bradshaw, E.; Tamisiea, M. E.; Aarup, T.

    2014-12-01

    Long term climate records are rare, consisting of unique and unrepeatable measurements. However, data do exist in analogue form in archives, libraries and other repositories around the world. The Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS) Group of Experts aims to provide advice on locating hidden tide gauge data, scanning and digitising records and quality controlling the resulting data. Long sea level data time series are used in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment reports and climate studies, in oceanography to study changes in ocean currents, tides and storm surges, in geodesy to establish national datum and in geography and geology to monitor coastal land movement. GLOSS has carried out a number of data archaeology activities over the past decade, which have mainly involved sending member organisations questionnaires on their repositories. The Group of Experts is now looking at future developments in sea level data archaeology and how new technologies coming on line could be used by member organisations to make data digitisation and transcription more efficient. Analogue tide data comes in two forms charts, which record the continuous measurements made by an instrument, usually via a pen trace on paper ledgers containing written values of observations The GLOSS data archaeology web pages will provide a list of software that member organisations have reported to be suitable for the automatic digitisation of tide gauge charts. Transcribing of ledgers has so far proved more labour intensive and is usually conducted by people entering numbers by hand. GLOSS is exploring using Citizen Science techniques, such as those employed by the Old Weather project, to improve the efficiency of transcribing ledgers. The Group of Experts is also looking at recent advances in Handwritten Text Recognition (HTR) technology, which mainly relies on patterns in the written word, but could be adapted to work with the patterns inherent in sea level data.

  20. Portrait of a Warming Ocean and Rising Sea Levels: Trend of Sea Level Change 1993-2008

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2008-01-01

    Warming water and melting land ice have raised global mean sea level 4.5 centimeters (1.7 inches) from 1993 to 2008. But the rise is by no means uniform. This image, created with sea surface height data from the Topex/Poseidon and Jason-1 satellites, shows exactly where sea level has changed during this time and how quickly these changes have occurred.

    It's also a road map showing where the ocean currently stores the growing amount of heat it is absorbing from Earth's atmosphere and the heat it receives directly from the Sun. The warmer the water, the higher the sea surface rises. The location of heat in the ocean and its movement around the globe play a pivotal role in Earth's climate.

    Light blue indicates areas in which sea level has remained relatively constant since 1993. White, red, and yellow are regions where sea levels have risen the most rapidly up to 10 millimeters per year and which contain the most heat. Green areas have also risen, but more moderately. Purple and dark blue show where sea levels have dropped, due to cooler water.

    The dramatic variation in sea surface heights and heat content across the ocean are due to winds, currents and long-term changes in patterns of circulation. From 1993 to 2008, the largest area of rapidly rising sea levels and the greatest concentration of heat has been in the Pacific, which now shows the characteristics of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), a feature that can last 10 to 20 years or even longer.

    In this 'cool' phase, the PDO appears as a horseshoe-shaped pattern of warm water in the Western Pacific reaching from the far north to the Southern Ocean enclosing a large wedge of cool water with low sea surface heights in the eastern Pacific. This ocean/climate phenomenon may be caused by wind-driven Rossby waves. Thousands of kilometers long, these waves move from east to west on either side of the equator changing the distribution of water mass and heat.

    This image of sea level

  1. Objective sea level pressure analysis for sparse data areas

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Druyan, L. M.

    1972-01-01

    A computer procedure was used to analyze the pressure distribution over the North Pacific Ocean for eleven synoptic times in February, 1967. Independent knowledge of the central pressures of lows is shown to reduce the analysis errors for very sparse data coverage. The application of planned remote sensing of sea-level wind speeds is shown to make a significant contribution to the quality of the analysis especially in the high gradient mid-latitudes and for sparse coverage of conventional observations (such as over Southern Hemisphere oceans). Uniform distribution of the available observations of sea-level pressure and wind velocity yields results far superior to those derived from a random distribution. A generalization of the results indicates that the average lower limit for analysis errors is between 2 and 2.5 mb based on the perfect specification of the magnitude of the sea-level pressure gradient from a known verification analysis. A less than perfect specification will derive from wind-pressure relationships applied to satellite observed wind speeds.

  2. Sea level, paleogeography, and archeology on California's Northern Channel Islands

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Reeder-Myers, Leslie; Erlandson, Jon M.; Muhs, Daniel R.; Rick, Torben C.

    2015-01-01

    Sea-level rise during the late Pleistocene and early Holocene inundated nearshore areas in many parts of the world, producing drastic changes in local ecosystems and obscuring significant portions of the archeological record. Although global forces are at play, the effects of sea-level rise are highly localized due to variability in glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) effects. Interpretations of coastal paleoecology and archeology require reliable estimates of ancient shorelines that account for GIA effects. Here we build on previous models for California's Northern Channel Islands, producing more accurate late Pleistocene and Holocene paleogeographic reconstructions adjusted for regional GIA variability. This region has contributed significantly to our understanding of early New World coastal foragers. Sea level that was about 80–85 m lower than present at the time of the first known human occupation brought about a landscape and ecology substantially different than today. During the late Pleistocene, large tracts of coastal lowlands were exposed, while a colder, wetter climate and fluctuating marine conditions interacted with rapidly evolving littoral environments. At the close of the Pleistocene and start of the Holocene, people in coastal California faced shrinking land, intertidal, and subtidal zones, with important implications for resource availability and distribution.

  3. Glacier calving, dynamics, and sea-level rise. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Meier, M.F.; Pfeffer, W.T.; Amadei, B.

    1998-08-01

    The present-day calving flux from Greenland and Antarctica is poorly known, and this accounts for a significant portion of the uncertainty in the current mass balance of these ice sheets. Similarly, the lack of knowledge about the role of calving in glacier dynamics constitutes a major uncertainty in predicting the response of glaciers and ice sheets to changes in climate and thus sea level. Another fundamental problem has to do with incomplete knowledge of glacier areas and volumes, needed for analyses of sea-level change due to changing climate. The authors proposed to develop an improved ability to predict the futuremore » contributions of glaciers to sea level by combining work from four research areas: remote sensing observations of calving activity and iceberg flux, numerical modeling of glacier dynamics, theoretical analysis of the calving process, and numerical techniques for modeling flow with large deformations and fracture. These four areas have never been combined into a single research effort on this subject; in particular, calving dynamics have never before been included explicitly in a model of glacier dynamics. A crucial issue that they proposed to address was the general question of how calving dynamics and glacier flow dynamics interact.« less

  4. Sea level, paleogeography, and archeology on California's Northern Channel Islands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reeder-Myers, Leslie; Erlandson, Jon M.; Muhs, Daniel R.; Rick, Torben C.

    2015-03-01

    Sea-level rise during the late Pleistocene and early Holocene inundated nearshore areas in many parts of the world, producing drastic changes in local ecosystems and obscuring significant portions of the archeological record. Although global forces are at play, the effects of sea-level rise are highly localized due to variability in glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) effects. Interpretations of coastal paleoecology and archeology require reliable estimates of ancient shorelines that account for GIA effects. Here we build on previous models for California's Northern Channel Islands, producing more accurate late Pleistocene and Holocene paleogeographic reconstructions adjusted for regional GIA variability. This region has contributed significantly to our understanding of early New World coastal foragers. Sea level that was about 80-85 m lower than present at the time of the first known human occupation brought about a landscape and ecology substantially different than today. During the late Pleistocene, large tracts of coastal lowlands were exposed, while a colder, wetter climate and fluctuating marine conditions interacted with rapidly evolving littoral environments. At the close of the Pleistocene and start of the Holocene, people in coastal California faced shrinking land, intertidal, and subtidal zones, with important implications for resource availability and distribution.

  5. How mangrove forests adjust to rising sea level

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Krauss, Ken W.; McKee, Karen L.; Lovelock, Catherine E.; Cahoon, Donald R.; Saintilan, Neil; Reef, Ruth; Chen, Luzhen

    2014-01-01

    Mangroves are among the most well described and widely studied wetland communities in the world. The greatest threats to mangrove persistence are deforestation and other anthropogenic disturbances that can compromise habitat stability and resilience to sea-level rise. To persist, mangrove ecosystems must adjust to rising sea level by building vertically or become submerged. Mangroves may directly or indirectly influence soil accretion processes through the production and accumulation of organic matter, as well as the trapping and retention of mineral sediment. In this review, we provide a general overview of research on mangrove elevation dynamics, emphasizing the role of the vegetation in maintaining soil surface elevations (i.e. position of the soil surface in the vertical plane). We summarize the primary ways in which mangroves may influence sediment accretion and vertical land development, for example, through root contributions to soil volume and upward expansion of the soil surface. We also examine how hydrological, geomorphological and climatic processes may interact with plant processes to influence mangrove capacity to keep pace with rising sea level. We draw on a variety of studies to describe the important, and often under-appreciated, role that plants play in shaping the trajectory of an ecosystem undergoing change.

  6. Mangrove sedimentation and response to relative sea-level rise

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Woodroffe, CD; Rogers, K.; Mckee, Karen L.; Lovelock, CE; Mendelssohn, IA; Saintilan, N.

    2016-01-01

    Mangroves occur on upper intertidal shorelines in the tropics and subtropics. Complex hydrodynamic and salinity conditions influence mangrove distributions, primarily related to elevation and hydroperiod; this review considers how these adjust through time. Accumulation rates of allochthonous and autochthonous sediment, both inorganic and organic, vary between and within different settings. Abundant terrigenous sediment can form dynamic mudbanks; tides redistribute sediment, contrasting with mangrove peat in sediment-starved carbonate settings. Sediments underlying mangroves sequester carbon, but also contain paleoenvironmental records of adjustments to past sea-level changes. Radiometric dating indicates long-term sedimentation, whereas Surface Elevation Table-Marker Horizon measurements (SET-MH) provide shorter perspectives, indicating shallow subsurface processes of root growth and substrate autocompaction. Many tropical deltas also experience deep subsidence, which augments relative sea-level rise. The persistence of mangroves implies an ability to cope with moderately high rates of relative sea-level rise. However, many human pressures threaten mangroves, resulting in continuing decline in their extent throughout the tropics.

  7. Relative sea level changes during the Cretaceous in Israel

    SciTech Connect

    Flexer, A.; Rosenfeld, A.; Lipson-Benitah, S.

    1986-11-01

    Detailed lithologic, microfaunal, and biometric investigations, using relative abundances, diversity indexes, and duration charts of ostracods and foraminifera, allowed the recognition of sea level changes during the Cretaceous of Israel. Three major transgressive-regressive sedimentation cycles occur on the northwest margins of the Arabian craton. These cycles are the Neocomian-Aptian, which is mostly terrigenous sediments; the Albian-Turonian, which is basin marls and platform carbonates; and the Senonian, which is uniform marly chalks. The cycles are separated by two major regional unconformities, the Aptian-Albian and Turonian-Coniacian boundaries. The sedimentary cycles are related to regional tectonic and volcanic events and eustatic changes. Themore » paleodepth curve illustrates the gradual sea level rise, reaching its maximum during the Late Cretaceous, with conspicuous advances during the late Aptian, late Albian-Cenomanian, early Turonian, early Santonian, and early Campanian. Major lowstands occur at the Aptian-Albian, Cenomanian-Turonian, Turonian-Coniacian, and Campanian-Maastrichtian boundaries. This model for Israel agrees well with other regional and global sea level fluctuations. Four anoxic events (black shales) accompanying transgressions correspond to the Cretaceous oceanic record. They hypothesize the presence of mature oil shales in the present-day eastern Mediterranean basin close to allochthonous reef blocks detached from the Cretaceous platform. 11 figures.« less

  8. The sea state bias in altimeter estimates of sea level from collinear analysis of TOPEX data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chelton, Dudley B.

    1994-01-01

    The wind speed and significant wave height (H(sub 1/3)) dependencies of the sea state bias in altimeter estimates of sea level, expressed in the form (Delta)h(sub SSB) = bH(sub 1/3), are examined from least squares analysis of 21 cycles of collinear TOPEX data. The bias coefficient b is found to increase in magnitude with increasing wind speed up to about 12 m/s and decrease monotonically in magnitude with increasing H(sub 1/3). A parameterization of b as a quadratic function of wind speed only, as in the formation used to produce the TOPEX geophysical data records (GDRs), is significantly better than a parameterization purely in terms of H(sub 1/3). However, a four-parameter combined wind speed and wave height formulation for b (quadratic in wind speed plus linear in H(sub 1/3)) significantly improves the accuracy of the sea state bias correction. The GDR formulation in terms of wind speed only should therefore be expanded to account for a wave height dependence of b. An attempt to quantify the accuracy of the sea state bias correction (Delta)h(sub SSB) concludes that the uncertainty is a disconcertingly large 1% of H(sub 1/3).

  9. Mean Tide Level Data in the PSMSL Mean Sea Level Dataset

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Matthews, Andrew; Bradshaw, Elizabeth; Gordon, Kathy; Jevrejeva, Svetlana; Rickards, Lesley; Tamisiea, Mark; Williams, Simon; Woodworth, Philip

    2016-04-01

    The Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) is the internationally recognised global sea level data bank for long term sea level change information from tide gauges. Established in 1933, the PSMSL continues to be responsible for the collection, publication, analysis and interpretation of sea level data. The PSMSL operates under the auspices of the International Council for Science (ICSU), is a regular member of the ICSU World Data System and is associated with the International Association for the Physical Sciences of the Oceans (IAPSO) and the International Association of Geodesy (IAG). The PSMSL continues to work closely with other members of the sea level community through the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission's Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS). Currently, the PSMSL data bank holds over 67,000 station-years of monthly and annual mean sea level data from over 2250 tide gauge stations. Data from each site are quality controlled and, wherever possible, reduced to a common datum, whose stability is monitored through a network of geodetic benchmarks. PSMSL also distributes a data bank of measurements taken from in-situ ocean bottom pressure recorders. Most of the records in the main PSMSL dataset indicate mean sea level (MSL), derived from high-frequency tide gauge data, with sampling typically once per hour or higher. However, some of the older data is based on mean tide level (MTL), which is obtained from measurements taken at high and low tide only. While usually very close, MSL and MTL can occasionally differ by many centimetres, particularly in shallow water locations. As a result, care must be taken when using long sea level records that contain periods of MTL data. Previously, periods during which the values indicated MTL rather than MSL were noted in the documentation, and sometimes suggested corrections were supplied. However, these comments were easy to miss, particularly in large scale studies that used multiple stations from across

  10. Multi-linear regression of sea level in the south west Pacific as a first step towards local sea level projections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kumar, Vandhna; Meyssignac, Benoit; Melet, Angélique; Ganachaud, Alexandre

    2017-04-01

    Rising sea levels are a critical concern in small island nations. The problem is especially serious in the western south Pacific, where the total sea level rise over the last 60 years is up to 3 times the global average. In this study, we attempt to reconstruct sea levels at selected sites in the region (Suva, Lautoka, Noumea - Fiji and New Caledonia) as a mutiple-linear regression of atmospheric and oceanic variables. We focus on interannual-to-decadal scale variability, and lower (including the global mean sea level rise) over the 1979-2014 period. Sea levels are taken from tide gauge records and the ORAS4 reanalysis dataset, and are expressed as a sum of steric and mass changes as a preliminary step. The key development in our methodology is using leading wind stress curl as a proxy for the thermosteric component. This is based on the knowledge that wind stress curl anomalies can modulate the thermocline depth and resultant sea levels via Rossby wave propagation. The analysis is primarily based on correlation between local sea level and selected predictors, the dominant one being wind stress curl. In the first step, proxy boxes for wind stress curl are determined via regions of highest correlation. The proportion of sea level explained via linear regression is then removed, leaving a residual. This residual is then correlated with other locally acting potential predictors: halosteric sea level, the zonal and meridional wind stress components, and sea surface temperature. The statistically significant predictors are used in a multi-linear regression function to simulate the observed sea level. The method is able to reproduce between 40 to 80% of the variance in observed sea level. Based on the skill of the model, it has high potential in sea level projection and downscaling studies.

  11. A new Arctic 25-year Altimetric Sea-level Record (1992-2016) and Initial look at Arctic Sea Level Budget Closure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Andersen, O. B.; Passaro, M.; Benveniste, J.; Piccioni, G.

    2016-12-01

    A new initiative within the ESA Sea Level Climate Change initiative (SL-cci) framework to improve the Arctic sea level record has been initiated as a combined effort to reprocess and retrack past altimetry to create a 25-year combined sea level record for sea level research studies. One of the objectives is to retracked ERS-2 dataset for the high latitudes based on the ALES retracking algorithm through adapting the ALES retracker for retracking of specular surfaces (leads). Secondly a reprocessing using tailored editing to Arctic Conditions will be carried out also focusing on the merging of the multi-mission data. Finally an effort is to combine physical and empirical retracked sea surface height information to derive an experimental spatio-temporal enhanced sea level product for high latitude. The first results in analysing Arctic Sea level variations on annual inter-annual scales for the 1992-2015 from a preliminar version of this dataset is presented. By including the GRACE water storage estimates and NOAA halo- and thermo-steric sea level variatios since 2002 a preliminary attempt to close the Arctic Sea level budget is presented here. Closing the Arctic sea level budget is by no mean trivial as both steric data and satellite altimetry is both sparse temporally and limited geographically.

  12. Prediction of South China sea level using seasonal ARIMA models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fernandez, Flerida Regine; Po, Rodolfo; Montero, Neil; Addawe, Rizavel

    2017-11-01

    Accelerating sea level rise is an indicator of global warming and poses a threat to low-lying places and coastal countries. This study aims to fit a Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model to the time series obtained from the TOPEX and Jason series of satellite radar altimetries of the South China Sea from the year 2008 to 2015. With altimetric measurements taken in a 10-day repeat cycle, monthly averages of the satellite altimetry measurements were taken to compose the data set used in the study. SARIMA models were then tried and fitted to the time series in order to find the best-fit model. Results show that the SARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,1)12 model best fits the time series and was used to forecast the values for January 2016 to December 2016. The 12-month forecast using SARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,1)12 shows that the sea level gradually increases from January to September 2016, and decreases until December 2016.

  13. Grain-size based sea-level reconstruction in the south Bohai Sea during the past 135 kyr

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yi, Liang; Chen, Yanping

    2013-04-01

    Future anthropogenic sea-level rise and its impact on coastal regions is an important issue facing human civilizations. Due to the short nature of the instrumental record of sea-level change, development of proxies for sea-level change prior to the advent of instrumental records is essential to reconstruct long-term background sea-level changes on local, regional and global scales. Two of the most widely used approaches for past sea-level changes are: (1) exploitation of dated geomorphologic features such as coastal sands (e.g. Mauz and Hassler, 2000), salt marsh (e.g. Madsen et al., 2007), terraces (e.g. Chappell et al., 1996), and other coastal sediments (e.g. Zong et al., 2003); and (2) sea-level transfer functions based on faunal assemblages such as testate amoebae (e.g. Charman et al., 2002), foraminifera (e.g. Chappell and Shackleton, 1986; Horton, 1997), and diatoms (e.g. Horton et al., 2006). While a variety of methods has been developed to reconstruct palaeo-changes in sea level, many regions, including the Bohai Sea, China, still lack detailed relative sea-level curves extending back to the Pleistocene (Yi et al., 2012). For example, coral terraces are absent in the Bohai Sea, and the poor preservation of faunal assemblages makes development of a transfer function for a relative sea-level reconstruction unfeasible. In contrast, frequent alternations between transgression and regression has presumably imprinted sea-level change on the grain size distribution of Bohai Sea sediments, which varies from medium silt to coarse sand during the late Quaternary (IOCAS, 1985). Advantages of grainsize-based relative sea-level transfer function approaches are that they require smaller sample sizes, allowing for replication, faster measurement and higher spatial or temporal resolution at a fraction of the cost of detail micro-palaeontological analysis (Yi et al., 2012). Here, we employ numerical methods to partition sediment grain size using a combined database of

  14. Integrating space geodesy and coastal sea level observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Löfgren, J. S.; Haas, R.; Larson, K.; Scherneck, H.-G.

    2012-04-01

    The goal of the Global Geodetic Observing System (GGOS) is to monitor the Earth system, in particular with observations of the three fundamental geodetic observables: the Earth's shape, the Earth's gravity field and the Earth's rotational motion. A central part of GGOS is the network of globally distributed fundamental geodetic stations that allow the combination and integration of the different space geodetic techniques. One of these stations is the Onsala Space Observatory (OSO), on the west coast of Sweden, which operates equipment for geodetic Very Long Baseline Interferometry, Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS), and superconducting gravimetry measurements, and additionally water vapour radiometers. The newest addition to the OSO fundamental geodetic station is a GNSS-based tide gauge (GNSS-TG). This installation integrates space geodesy with remote sensing of the local sea level. The GNSS-TG uses both direct GNSS-signals and GNSS-signals that are reflected off the sea surface. This is done using a zenith-looking Right Hand Circular Polarized (RHCP) and a nadir-looking Left Hand Circular Polarized (LHCP) antenna, respectively. Each of the two antennas is connected to a standard geodetic-type GNSS-receiver. The analysis of the data received with the RHCP-antenna allows one to determine land motion, while the analysis of the data received with the LHCP-antenna allows one to determine the sea surface height. Analysing both data sets together results in local sea level that is automatically corrected for land motion, meaning that the GNSS-TG can provide reliable sea-level estimates even in tectonically active regions. Previous results from the GNSS-TG, using carrier phase data, show a Root-Mean-Square (RMS) agreement of less than 5.9 cm with stilling well gauges located 18 km and 33 km away from OSO (Löfgren et al., 2011). This is lower than the RMS agreement between the two stilling well gauges (6.1 cm). Furthermore, significant ocean tidal signals have

  15. Contribution of atmospheric circulation to recent off-shore sea-level variations in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karabil, Sitar; Zorita, Eduardo; Hünicke, Birgit

    2018-01-01

    The main purpose of this study is to quantify the contribution of atmospheric factors to recent off-shore sea-level variability in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea on interannual timescales. For this purpose, we statistically analysed sea-level records from tide gauges and satellite altimetry and several climatic data sets covering the last century. Previous studies had concluded that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the main pattern of atmospheric variability affecting sea level in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea in wintertime. However, we identify a different atmospheric circulation pattern that is more closely connected to sea-level variability than the NAO. This circulation pattern displays a link to sea level that remains stable through the 20th century, in contrast to the much more variable link between sea level and the NAO. We denote this atmospheric variability mode as the Baltic Sea and North Sea Oscillation (BANOS) index. The sea-level pressure (SLP) BANOS pattern displays an SLP dipole with centres of action located over (5° W, 45° N) and (20° E, 70° N) and this is distinct from the standard NAO SLP pattern in wintertime. In summertime, the discrepancy between the SLP BANOS and NAO patterns becomes clearer, with centres of action of the former located over (30° E, 45° N) and (20° E, 60° N). This index has a stronger connection to off-shore sea-level variability in the study area than the NAO in wintertime for the period 1993-2013, explaining locally up to 90 % of the interannual sea-level variance in winter and up to 79 % in summer. The eastern part of the Gulf of Finland is the area where the BANOS index is most sensitive to sea level in wintertime, whereas the Gulf of Riga is the most sensitive region in summertime. In the North Sea region, the maximum sea-level sensitivity to the BANOS pattern is located in the German Bight for both winter and summer seasons. We investigated, and when possible quantified, the contribution of several

  16. GPS Vertical Land Motion Corrections to Sea-Level Rise Estimates in the Pacific Northwest

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Montillet, J.-P.; Melbourne, T. I.; Szeliga, W. M.

    2018-02-01

    We construct coastal Pacific Northwest profiles of vertical land motion (VLM) known to bias long-term tide-gauge measurements of sea-level rise (SLR) and use them to estimate absolute sea-level rise with respect to Earth's center of mass. Multidecade GPS measurements at 47 coastal stations along the Cascadia subduction zone show VLM varies regionally but smoothly along the Pacific coast and inland Puget Sound with rates ranging from + 4.9 to -1.2 mm/yr. Puget Sound VLM is characterized by uniform subsidence at relatively slow rates of -0.1 to -0.3 mm/yr. Uplift rates of 4.5 mm/yr persist along the western Olympic Peninsula of northwestern Washington State and decrease southward becoming nearly 0 mm/yr south of central coastal Washington through Cape Blanco, Oregon. South of Cape Blanco, uplift increases to 1-2 mm/yr, peaks at 4 mm/yr near Crescent City, California, and returns to zero at Cape Mendocino, California. Using various stochastic noise models, we estimate long-term (˜50 -100 yr) relative sea-level rise rates at 18 coastal Cascadia tide gauges and correct them for VLM. Uncorrected SLR rates are scattered, ranging between -2 mm/yr and + 5 mm/yr with mean 0.52 ± 1.59 mm/yr, whereas correcting for VLM increases the mean value to 1.99 mm/yr and reduces the uncertainty to ± 1.18 mm/yr, commensurate with, but approximately 17% higher than, twentieth century global mean.

  17. Ice2sea - Estimating the future contribution of continental ice to sea-level rise - project summary

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ford, Elaina; Vaughan, David

    2013-04-01

    Ice2sea brings together the EU's scientific and operational expertise from 24 leading institutions across Europe and beyond. Improved projections of the contribution of ice to sea-level rise produced by this major European-funded programme will inform the fifth IPCC report (due in September 2013). In 2007, the fourth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report highlighted ice-sheets as the most significant remaining uncertainty in projections of sea-level rise. Understanding about the crucial ice-sheet effects was "too limited to assess their likelihood or provide a best estimate of an upper bound for sea-level rise". Ice2sea was created to address these issues - the project started in 2009 and is now drawing to a close, with our final symposium in May 2013, and final publicity activities around the IPCC report release in autumn 2013. Here we present a summary of the overall and key outputs of the ice2sea project.

  18. Holocene Sea-Levels from Greenland to Antarctica: A Pole-to-Pole Transect of Sea Level History

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Horton, Benjamin; Peltier, William; Roy, Keven; Ashe, Erica; Shaw, Tim; Engelhart, Simon; Khan, Nicole; Kopp, Robert; Simkins, Lauren; Vacchi, Matteo; Woodroffe, Sarah

    2017-04-01

    The Holocene is the most recent period during which natural temperature variability predominates and, therefore, provides an important paleo perspective for understanding the climate:sea-level relationship prior to anthropogenic modification of the climate system. But our understanding of Holocene sea level is limited by a lack of a standard protocol that incorporates full consideration of vertical and temporal uncertainty for each sea-level index point. We have compiled a Holocene RSL database of 3000 validated sea-level index points from Greenland, North American Atlantic coast, Caribbean, South American Atlantic coast and Antarctica. The databases were collated using a formalized and consistent methodology to facilitate the development and comparison of regional RSL records. The database also includes information relevant to sediment compaction, and modelling of both modern-day and paleotidal ranges. We develop a spatio-temporal empirical hierarchical model to compare regional RSL histories and estimate rates of change. Holocene RSL history from near-field regions (e.g., Antarctica, Greenland and Canada) reveal a complex pattern of RSL fall from a maximum marine limit due to the net effect of eustatic sea-level rise and glacio-isostatic uplift with rates of RSL fall as great as 70 ± 5 m/ka (East Hudson Bay). Intermediate field regions (e.g., North American mid-Atlantic coast) display variable rates of RSL rise from the cumulative effect of eustatic and isostatic factors. Fast rates of RSL rise (up to 10 ± 4m/ka; New Jersey) are found in the early Holocene in regions near the center of forebulge collapse. Far-field RSL records (South American Atlantic coast) exhibit a mid-Holocene highstand, the timing and magnitude of which varies between 8 and 4 ka and <1 and 6 m, respectively. We compare RSL histories with the predictions from two recent models of the Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) process, namely the ICE-6GC (VM5a) model of Peltier et al. (2015) and the

  19. New Constraints from the Seychelles on the Timing and Magnitude of Peak Global Mean Sea Level during the Last Interglacial

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vyverberg, K.; Dechnik, B.; Dutton, A.; Webster, J.; Zwartz, D.; Edwards, R. L.

    2016-12-01

    Projecting the rate of future sea-level rise remains a primary challenge associated with continued climate change. However, uncertainties remain in our understanding of the rate of polar ice sheet retreat in warmer-than-present climates. To address this issue, we present a new sea level reconstruction from the tectonically stable granitic Seychelles based on Last Interglacial coral ages and elevations within their sedimentary and stratigraphic context, including estimates of paleo-water depth based on newly defined coralgal assemblages. The reef facies analyzed here has a narrow and shallow paleowater depth range (<2 m) providing increased control on the absolute position of sea level during this time period. Corrected for local glacial isostatic adjustment effects including the fingerprint associated with polar ice sheet mass loss, corals found in primary growth position within in situ coralgal reef framework confirm that global mean sea level (GMSL) was nearly 6 m above present early in the interglacial period. Each coral was dated in triplicate and screened for anomalous U-series geochemistry parameters. The combination of age-elevation data with the sedimentary micro and macro facies and stratigraphic analysis reveals a sea-level rise over 5-6 thousand years that is punctuated by repeated episodes of reef disturbance. These episodes are marked stratigraphically by coral rubble layers or extensive lateral encrustations of Millepora sp. that are infested with coral-dwelling barnacles. These disturbance layers may have been generated through internal reef processes and/or external agents, including coral disease, bleaching, predation, hurricanes, or sub-aerial exposure. In total, these new observations provide improved constraints on the timing, magnitude, and rates of sea-level rise during the Last Interglacial.

  20. New evidence for "far-field" Holocene sea level oscillations and links to global climate records

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leonard, N. D.; Welsh, K. J.; Clark, T. R.; Feng, Y.-x.; Pandolfi, J. M.; Zhao, J.-x.

    2018-04-01

    Rising sea level in the coming century is of significant concern, yet predicting relative sea level change in response to eustatic sea level variability is complex. Potential analogues are provided by the recent geological past but, until recently, many sea level reconstructions have been limited to millennial scale interpretations due to age uncertainties and paucity in proxy derived records. Here we present a sea level history for the tectonically stable "far-field" Great Barrier Reef, Australia, derived from 94 high precision uranium-thorium dates of sub-fossil coral microatolls. Our results provide evidence for at least two periods of relative sea level instability during the Holocene. These sea level oscillations are broadly synchronous with Indo-Pacific negative sea surface temperature anomalies, rapid global cooling events and glacial advances. We propose that the pace and magnitude of these oscillations are suggestive of eustatic/thermosteric processes operating in conjunction with regional climatic controls.

  1. Correlation of sea level falls interpreted from atoll stratigraphy with turbidites in adjacent basins

    SciTech Connect

    Lincoln, J.M.

    Past sea levels can be derived from any atoll subsurface sediments deposited at or near sea level by determining the ages of deposition and correcting the present depths to the sediments for subsidence of the underlying edifice since the times of deposition. A sea level curve constructed by this method consists of discontinuous segments, each corresponding to a period of rising relative sea level and deposition of a discrete sedimentary package. Discontinuities in the sea level curve derived by this method correspond to relative sea level falls and stratigraphic hiatuses in the atoll subsurface. During intervals of relative sea levelmore » fall an atoll emerges to become a high limestone island. Sea level may fluctuate several times during a period of atoll emergence to become a high limestone island. Sea level may fluctuate several times during a period of atoll emergence without depositing sediments on top of the atoll. Furthermore, subaerial erosion may remove a substantial part of the depositional record of previous sea level fluctuations. For these reasons the authors must look to the adjacent basins to complement the incomplete record of sea level change recorded beneath atolls. During lowstands of sea level, faunas originally deposited near sea level on an atoll may be eroded and redeposited as turbidites in deep adjacent basins. Three such turbidites penetrated during deep-sea drilling at Sites 462 and 315 in the central Pacific correlate well with a late Tertiary sea level curve based on biostratigraphic ages and {sup 87}Sr/{sup 86}Sr chronostratigraphy for core from Enewetak Atoll in the northern Marshall Islands. Further drilling of the archipelagic aprons adjacent to atolls will improve the sea level history that may be inferred from atoll stratigraphy.« less

  2. Drivers of Holocene sea-level change in the Caribbean

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Khan, Nicole; Ashe, Erica; Horton, Benjamin P.; Dutton, Andrea; Kopp, Robert E.; Brocard, Gilles; Engelhart, Simon E.; Hill, David F.; Peltier, W.R.; Vane, Christopher H.; Scatena, Fred N.

    2017-01-01

    We present a Holocene relative sea-level (RSL) database for the Caribbean region (5°N to 25°N and 55°W to 90°W) that consists of 499 sea-level index points and 238 limiting dates. The database was compiled from multiple sea-level indicators (mangrove peat, microbial mats, beach rock and acroporid and massive corals). We subdivided the database into 20 regions to investigate the influence of tectonics and glacial isostatic adjustment on RSL. We account for the local-scale processes of sediment compaction and tidal range change using the stratigraphic position (overburden thickness) of index points and paleotidal modeling, respectively. We use a spatio-temporal empirical hierarchical model to estimate RSL position and its rates of change in the Caribbean over 1-ka time slices. Because of meltwater input, the rates of RSL change were highest during the early Holocene, with a maximum of 10.9 ± 0.6 m/ka in Suriname and Guyana and minimum of 7.4 ± 0.7 m/ka in south Florida from 12 to 8 ka. Following complete deglaciation of the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) by ∼7 ka, mid-to late-Holocene rates slowed to < 2.4 ± 0.4 m/ka. The hierarchical model constrains the spatial extent of the mid-Holocene highstand. RSL did not exceed the present height during the Holocene, except on the northern coast of South America, where in Suriname and Guyana, RSL attained a height higher than present by 6.6 ka (82% probability). The highstand reached a maximum elevation of +1.0 ± 1.1 m between 5.3 and 5.2 ka. Regions with a highstand were located furthest away from the former LIS, where the effects from ocean syphoning and hydro-isostasy outweigh the influence of subsidence from forebulge collapse.

  3. Global ice-sheet system interlocked by sea level

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Denton, George H.; Hughes, Terence J.; Karlén, Wibjörn

    1986-07-01

    Denton and Hughes (1983, Quaternary Research20, 125-144) postulated that sea level linked a global ice-sheet system with both terrestrial and grounded marine components during late Quaternary ice ages. Summer temperature changes near Northern Hemisphere melting margins initiated sea-level fluctuations that controlled marine components in both polar hemispheres. It was further proposed that variations of this ice-sheet system amplified and transmitted Milankovitch summer half-year insolation changes between 45 and 75°N into global climatic changes. New tests of this hypothesis implicate sea level as a major control of the areal extent of grounded portions of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, thus fitting the concept of a globally interlocked ice-sheet system. But recent atmospheric modeling results ( Manabe and Broccoli, 1985, Journal of Geophysical Research90, 2167-2190) suggest that factors other than areal changes of the grounded Antarctic Ice Sheet strongly influenced Southern Hemisphere climate and terminated the last ice age simultaneously in both polar hemispheres. Atmospheric carbon dioxide linked to high-latitude oceans is the most likely candidate ( Shackleton and Pisias, 1985, Atmospheric carbon dioxide, orbital forcing, and climate. In "The Carbon Cycle and Atmospheric CO 2: Natural Variations Archean to Present" (E. T. Sundquest and W. S. Broecker, Eds.), pp. 303-318. Geophysical Monograph 32, American Geophysical Union, Washington, D.C.), but another potential influence was high-frequency climatic oscillations (2500 yr). It is postulated that variations in atmospheric carbon dioxide acted through an Antarctic ice shelf linked to the grounded ice sheet to produce and terminate Southern Hemisphere ice-age climate. It is further postulated that Milankovitch summer insolation combined with a warm high-frequency oscillation caused marked recession of Northern Hemisphere ice-sheet melting margins and the North Atlantic polar front about 14,000 14C yr B.P. This

  4. Uprated OMS Engine Status-Sea Level Testing Results

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bertolino, J. D.; Boyd, W. C.

    1990-01-01

    The current Space Shuttle Orbital Maneuvering Engine (OME) is pressure fed, utilizing storable propellants. Performance uprating of this engine, through the use of a gas generator driven turbopump to increase operating pressure, is being pursued by the NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC). Component level design, fabrication, and test activities for this engine system have been on-going since 1984. More recently, a complete engine designated the Integrated Component Test Bed (ICTB), was tested at sea level conditions by Aerojet. A description of the test hardware and results of the sea level test program are presented. These results, which include the test condition operating envelope and projected performance at altitude conditions, confirm the capability of the selected Uprated OME (UOME) configuration to meet or exceed performance and operational requirements. Engine flexibility, demonstrated through testing at two different operational mixture ratios, along with a summary of projected Space Shuttle performance enhancements using the UOME, are discussed. Planned future activities, including ICTB tests at simulated altitude conditions, and recommendations for further engine development, are also discussed.

  5. Evidence for multidecadal variability in US extreme sea level records

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wahl, Thomas; Chambers, Don P.

    2015-03-01

    We analyze a set of 20 tide gauge records covering the contiguous United States (US) coastline and the period from 1929 to 2013 to identify long-term trends and multidecadal variations in extreme sea levels (ESLs) relative to changes in mean sea level (MSL). Different data sampling and analysis techniques are applied to test the robustness of the results against the selected methodology. Significant but small long-term trends in ESLs above/below MSL are found at individual sites along most coastline stretches, but are mostly confined to the southeast coast and the winter season when storm surges are primarily driven by extratropical cyclones. We identify six regions with broadly coherent and considerable multidecadal ESL variations unrelated to MSL changes. Using a quasi-nonstationary extreme value analysis, we show that the latter would have caused variations in design relevant return water levels (50-200 year return periods) ranging from ˜10 cm to as much as 110 cm across the six regions. The results raise questions as to the applicability of the "MSL offset method," assuming that ESL changes are primarily driven by changes in MSL without allowing for distinct long-term trends or low-frequency variations. Identifying the coherent multidecadal ESL variability is crucial in order to understand the physical driving factors. Ultimately, this information must be included into coastal design and adaptation processes.

  6. Relative Sea Level, Tidal Range, and Extreme Water Levels in Boston Harbor from 1825 to 2016

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Talke, S. A.; Kemp, A.; Woodruff, J. D.

    2017-12-01

    Long time series of water-level measurements made by tide gauges provide a rich and valuable observational history of relative sea-level change, the frequency and height of extreme water levels and evolving tidal regimes. However, relatively few locations have available tide-gauge records longer than 100 years and most of these places are in northern Europe. This spatio-temporal distribution hinders efforts to understand global-, regional- and local-scale trends. Using newly-discovered archival measurements, we constructed a 200 year, instrumental record of water levels, tides, and storm surges in Boston Harbor. We detail the recovery, datum reconstruction, digitization, quality assurance, and analysis of this extended observational record. Local, decadally-averaged relative sea-level rose by 0.28 ± 0.05 m since the 1820s, with an acceleration of 0.023 ±0.009 mm/yr2. Approximately 0.13 ± 0.02 m of the observed RSL rise occurred due to ongoing glacial isostatic adjustment, and the remainder occurred due to changes in ocean mass and volume associated with the onset of modern mean sea-level rise. Change-point analysis of the new relative sea level record confirms that anthropogenic rise began in 1924-1932, which is in agreement with global mean sea level estimates from the global tide gauge network. Tide range decreased by 5.5% between 1830 and 1910, likely due in large part to anthropogenic development. Storm tides in Boston Harbor are produced primarily by extratropical storms during the November-April time frame. The three largest storm tides occurred in 1851, 1909, and 1978. Because 90% of the top 20 storm tides since 1825 occurred during a spring tide, the secular change in tide range contributes to a slight reduction in storm tide magnitudes. However, non-stationarity in storm hazard was historically driven primarily by local relative sea-level rise; a modest 0.2 m increase in relative sea level reduces the 100 year high water mark to a once-in-10 year event.

  7. Modeling radium distribution in coastal aquifers during sea level changes: The Dead Sea case

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kiro, Yael; Yechieli, Yoseph; Voss, Clifford I.; Starinsky, Abraham; Weinstein, Yishai

    2012-01-01

    We present a new approach to studying the behavior of radium isotopes in a coastal aquifer. In order to simulate radium isotope distributions in the dynamic flow field of the Dead Sea aquifer, a multi-species density dependent flow model (SUTRA-MS) was used. Field data show that the activity of 226Ra decreases from 140 to 60 dpm/L upon entering the aquifer from the Dead Sea, and then further decreases linearly due to mixing with Ra-poor fresh water. On the other hand, an increase is observed in the activity of the shorter-lived isotopes (up to 52 dpm/L 224Ra and 31 dpm/L 223Ra), which are relatively low in Dead Sea water (up to 2.5 dpm/L 224Ra and 0.5 dpm/L 223Ra). The activities of the short lived radium isotopes also decrease with decreasing salinity, which is due to the effect of salinity on the adsorption of radium. The relationship between 224Ra and salinity suggests that the adsorption partition coefficient (K) is linearly related to salinity. Simulations of the steady-state conditions, show that the distance where equilibrium activity is attained for each radium isotope is affected by the isotope half-life, K and the groundwater velocity, resulting in a longer distance for the long-lived radium isotopes. K affects the radium distribution in transient conditions, especially that of the long-lived radium isotopes. The transient conditions in the Dead Sea system, with a 1 m/yr lake level drop, together with the radium field data, constrains K to be relatively low (226Ra cannot be explained by adsorption, and it is better explained by removal via coprecipitation, probably with barite or celestine.

  8. New developments in spatial interpolation methods of Sea-Level Anomalies in the Mediterranean Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Troupin, Charles; Barth, Alexander; Beckers, Jean-Marie; Pascual, Ananda

    2014-05-01

    The gridding of along-track Sea-Level Anomalies (SLA) measured by a constellation of satellites has numerous applications in oceanography, such as model validation, data assimilation or eddy tracking. Optimal Interpolation (OI) is often the preferred method for this task, as it leads to the lowest expected error and provides an error field associated to the analysed field. However, the numerical cost of the method may limit its utilization in situations where the number of data points is significant. Furthermore, the separation of non-adjacent regions with OI requires adaptation of the code, leading to a further increase of the numerical cost. To solve these issues, the Data-Interpolating Variational Analysis (DIVA), a technique designed to produce gridded from sparse in situ measurements, is applied on SLA data in the Mediterranean Sea. DIVA and OI have been shown to be equivalent (provided some assumptions on the covariances are made). The main difference lies in the covariance function, which is not explicitly formulated in DIVA. The particular spatial and temporal distributions of measurements required adaptation in the Software tool (data format, parameter determinations, ...). These adaptation are presented in the poster. The daily analysed and error fields obtained with this technique are compared with available products such as the gridded field from the Archiving, Validation and Interpretation of Satellite Oceanographic data (AVISO) data server. The comparison reveals an overall good agreement between the products. The time evolution of the mean error field evidences the need of a large number of simultaneous altimetry satellites: in period during which 4 satellites are available, the mean error is on the order of 17.5%, while when only 2 satellites are available, the error exceeds 25%. Finally, we propose the use sea currents to improve the results of the interpolation, especially in the coastal area. These currents can be constructed from the bathymetry

  9. Mid Pliocene sea levels along the southeast US coastal plain

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rovere, A.; Hearty, P. J.; Raymo, M. E.; Mitrovica, J. X.; Inglis, J.

    2012-12-01

    Proxy data suggest that during the Mid-Pliocene Warm Period (MPWP) atmospheric CO2 levels were roughly similar to today (between 350 and 450 ppmv) and that global average temperature was elevated by as much as 3°C with respect to preindustrial values. Estimates of sea level (SL) during the MPWP range from +10 m to >+40 m relative to present, reflecting uncertainties in our knowledge of the sensitivity to modest climate warming of the East Antarctic, West Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets. A primary objective of the PLIOMAX project (www.pliomax.org) is to combine models of paleosea-level signals with geological observations to significantly improve constraints on eustatic sea level during the MPWP. In this regard, the southeast US coastal plain is of strategic importance in MPWP sea level studies (Dowsett and Cronin, Geology, 1990). In fact, it is one of the few places where predicted glacio-isostatic effects are expected to exhibit a significant geographic variation (in this case, north-to-south). The coastal plain may also be influenced by dynamic topography driven by mantle convective flow. In this area, two factors drive the up-to-the-west dynamic tilting of the coast. The first is the descent of the Farallon slab, now located under the mid-part of the North American continent. The other is upwelling return flow under the east coast (Moucha et al., Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 2008). That is, over the last few million years, dynamic topography is responsible for potentially tens of meters of uplift (sea-level fall) of the Pliocene shoreline along the southeast US coastal plain. We have mapped an almost continuous MPWP shoreline cut into Miocene and older formations. However, as a result of multiple inter-state investigations extending over the last century, both the geomorphic escarpment and the associated deposits have been named differently across the region. In Virginia, the Chippenham Thornburg scarp is associated with the Moore House formation; in North and

  10. Reconciliation of late Quaternary sea levels derived from coral terraces at Huon Peninsula with deep sea oxygen isotope records

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chappell, John; Omura, Akio; Esat, Tezer; McCulloch, Malcolm; Pandolfi, John; Ota, Yoko; Pillans, Brad

    1996-06-01

    A major discrepancy between the Late Quaternary sea level changes derived from raised coral reef terraces at the Huon Peninsula in Papua New Guinea and from oxygen isotopes in deep sea cores is resolved. The two methods agree closely from 120 ka to 80 ka and from 20 ka to 0 ka (ka = 1000 yr before present), but between 70 and 30 ka the isotopic sea levels are 20-40 m lower than the Huon Peninsula sea levels derived in earlier studies. New, high precision U-series age measurements and revised stratigraphic data for Huon Peninsula terraces aged between 30 and 70 ka now give similar sea levels to those based on deep sea oxygen isotope data planktonic and benthic δ 18O data. Using the sea level and deep sea isotopic data, oxygen isotope ratios are calculated for the northern continental ice sheets through the last glacial cycle and are consistent with results from Greenland ice cores. The record of ice volume changes through the last glacial cycle now appears to be reasonably complete.

  11. Azimuth selection for sea level measurements using geodetic GPS receivers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Xiaolei; Zhang, Qin; Zhang, Shuangcheng

    2018-03-01

    Based on analysis of Global Positioning System (GPS) multipath signals recorded by a geodetic GPS receiver, GPS Reflectometry (GPS-R) has demonstrated unique advantages in relation to sea level monitoring. Founded on multipath reflectometry theory, sea level changes can be measured by GPS-R through spectral analysis of recorded signal-to-noise ratio data. However, prior to estimating multipath parameters, it is necessary to define azimuth and elevation angle mask to ensure the reflecting zones are on water. Here, a method is presented to address azimuth selection, a topic currently under active development in the field of GPS-R. Data from three test sites: the Kachemak Bay GPS site PBAY in Alaska (USA), Friday Harbor GPS site SC02 in the San Juan Islands (USA), and Brest Harbor GPS site BRST in Brest (France) are analyzed. These sites are located in different multipath environments, from a rural coastal area to a busy harbor, and they experience different tidal ranges. Estimates by the GPS tide gauges at azimuths selected by the presented method are compared with measurements from physical tide gauges and acceptable correspondence found for all three sites.

  12. Coastal wetlands, sea level, and the dimensions of geomorphic resilience

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Phillips, Jonathan D.

    2018-03-01

    Geomorphic system resilience is often perceived as an intrinsic property of system structure and interactions but is also related to idiosyncratic place and history factors. The importance of geographical and historical circumstances makes it difficult to generate categorical statements about geomorphic resilience. However, network-based analyses of system structure can be used to determine the dynamical stability (= resilience) based on generally applicable relationships and to determine scenarios of stability or instability. These provide guidelines for assessing place and history factors to assess resilience. A model of coastal wetlands is analyzed, based on interactions among relative sea level, wetland surface elevation, hydroperiod, vegetation, and sedimentation. The system is generally (but not always) dynamically unstable and non-resilient. Because of gradients of environmental factors and patchy distributions of microtopography and vegetation, a coastal wetland landscape may have extensive local variations in stability/resilience and in the key relationships that trigger instabilities. This is illustrated by a case study where dynamically unstable fragmentation is found in two nearby coastal wetlands in North Carolina's Neuse River estuary-Otter Creek Mouth and Anderson Creek. Neither is keeping pace with relative sea level rise, and both show unstable state transitions within the wetland system; but locally stable relationships exist within the wetland systems.

  13. Ice-sheet contributions to future sea-level change.

    PubMed

    Gregory, J M; Huybrechts, P

    2006-07-15

    Accurate simulation of ice-sheet surface mass balance requires higher spatial resolution than is afforded by typical atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs), owing, in particular, to the need to resolve the narrow and steep margins where the majority of precipitation and ablation occurs. We have developed a method for calculating mass-balance changes by combining ice-sheet average time-series from AOGCM projections for future centuries, both with information from high-resolution climate models run for short periods and with a 20km ice-sheet mass-balance model. Antarctica contributes negatively to sea level on account of increased accumulation, while Greenland contributes positively because ablation increases more rapidly. The uncertainty in the results is about 20% for Antarctica and 35% for Greenland. Changes in ice-sheet topography and dynamics are not included, but we discuss their possible effects. For an annual- and area-average warming exceeding 4.5+/-0.9K in Greenland and 3.1+/-0.8K in the global average, the net surface mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet becomes negative, in which case it is likely that the ice sheet would eventually be eliminated, raising global-average sea level by 7m.

  14. Is the detection of accelerated sea level rise imminent?

    DOE PAGES

    Fasullo, J. T.; Nerem, R. S.; Hamlington, B.

    2016-08-10

    Global mean sea level rise estimated from satellite altimetry provides a strong constraint on climate variability and change and is expected to accelerate as the rates of both ocean warming and cryospheric mass loss increase over time. In stark contrast to this expectation however, current altimeter products show the rate of sea level rise to have decreased from the first to second decades of the altimeter era. Here, a combined analysis of altimeter data and specially designed climate model simulations shows the 1991 eruption of Mt Pinatubo to likely have masked the acceleration that would have otherwise occurred. This maskingmore » arose largely from a recovery in ocean heat content through the mid to late 1990 s subsequent to major heat content reductions in the years following the eruption. As a result, a consequence of this finding is that barring another major volcanic eruption, a detectable acceleration is likely to emerge from the noise of internal climate variability in the coming decade.« less

  15. A High School Project Seminar on Sea Level Rise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seitz, M.; Bosch, W.

    2012-04-01

    In Bavaria the curriculum of the upper grade of high school includes a so called project seminar, running over one and a half year. The aims of the seminar are to let the pupils learn to work on a specific topic, to organize themselves in a team, to improve their soft skills and become familiar with the working life. The topic of the project seminar, jointly organized by the Bertold-Brecht-Gymnasium in Munich and the Deutsche Geodätische Forschungsinstitut (DGFI) was on the "Global sea level rise". A team of 13 pupils computed the mean sea level rise by using on the one hand altimetry data of TOPEX, Jason-1 and Jason2 and on the other hand data of globally distributed tide gauges, corrected for vertical crustal movements derived from GPS products. The results of the two independent approaches were compared with each other and discussed considering also statements and discussions found in press, TV, and the web. Finally, a presentation was prepared and presented at school.

  16. Is the detection of accelerated sea level rise imminent?

    SciTech Connect

    Fasullo, J. T.; Nerem, R. S.; Hamlington, B.

    Global mean sea level rise estimated from satellite altimetry provides a strong constraint on climate variability and change and is expected to accelerate as the rates of both ocean warming and cryospheric mass loss increase over time. In stark contrast to this expectation however, current altimeter products show the rate of sea level rise to have decreased from the first to second decades of the altimeter era. Here, a combined analysis of altimeter data and specially designed climate model simulations shows the 1991 eruption of Mt Pinatubo to likely have masked the acceleration that would have otherwise occurred. This maskingmore » arose largely from a recovery in ocean heat content through the mid to late 1990 s subsequent to major heat content reductions in the years following the eruption. As a result, a consequence of this finding is that barring another major volcanic eruption, a detectable acceleration is likely to emerge from the noise of internal climate variability in the coming decade.« less

  17. The Sea Level Rise Tipping Point of Delta Survival

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Turner, R. E.; Kearney, M.; Parkinson, R. W.

    2017-12-01

    The estimated rate of global eustatic sea-level rise (RSLR) associated with the formation of thirty-six of the world's coastal deltas was calculated for the last 22,000 years. These deltas are located in a variety of environmental settings in respect to tidal range, isostasy, and climate. After correcting the original uncalibrated radiocarbon age estimates to calibrated years, 90% of the deltas appear to have formed at an average age of 8,109 ± 122 BP and a median age of 7,967 BP. This age corresponds to a period of significant deceleration in the RSLR to between 5 mm yr-1 and 10 mm yr-1, and is in agreement with two regional estimates of vegetation growth limits with respect to RSLR. This RSLR tipping point for delta formation can be used to inform forecasts of delta resiliency under conditions of climate change and concomitant sea level rise. The RSLR is accelerating and will likely be several times higher than the formation tipping point by the end of this century. Hence, the demise of the world's deltaic environments are likely to occur within the same time frame.

  18. Regional influences on reconstructed global mean sea level

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Natarov, Svetlana I.; Merrifield, Mark A.; Becker, Janet M.; Thompson, Phillip R.

    2017-04-01

    Reconstructions of global mean sea level (GMSL) based on tide gauge measurements tend to exhibit common multidecadal rate fluctuations over the twentieth century. GMSL rate changes may result from physical drivers, such as changes in radiative forcing or land water storage. Alternatively, these fluctuations may represent artifacts due to sampling limitations inherent in the historical tide gauge network. In particular, a high percentage of tide gauges used in reconstructions, especially prior to the 1950s, are from Europe and North America in the North Atlantic region. Here a GMSL reconstruction based on the reduced space optimal interpolation algorithm is deconstructed, with the contributions of individual tide gauge stations quantified and assessed regionally. It is demonstrated that the North Atlantic region has a disproportionate influence on reconstructed GMSL rate fluctuations prior to the 1950s, notably accounting for a rate minimum in the 1920s and contributing to a rate maximum in the 1950s. North Atlantic coastal sea level fluctuations related to wind-driven ocean volume redistribution likely contribute to these estimated GMSL rate inflections. The findings support previous claims that multidecadal rate changes in GMSL reconstructions are likely related to the geographic distribution of tide gauge stations within a sparse global network.

  19. What Causes the North Sea Level to Rise Faster over the Last Decade ?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karpytchev, Mikhail; Letetrel, Camille

    2013-04-01

    We combined tide gauge records (PSMSL) and satellite altimetry data (TOPEX/POSEIDON-JASON 1-2) to reconstruct the mean level of the North Sea and the Norwegian Sea Shelf (NS-NSS) over 1950-2012. The reconstructed NS-NSS mean sea level fluctuations reveal a pronounced interannual variability and a strong sea level acceleration since the mid-1990's. In order to understand the causes of this acceleration, the NS-NSS mean sea level was cross-correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation indices. While the interannual variability of the mean sea level correlates well with the NAO/AO indices, the observed acceleration in the NS-NSS mean level is not linked linearly to the NAO/AO fluctuations. On the other hand, the Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF) analysis of steric sea level variations in the eastern North Atlantic gives a dominant EOF pattern (55% of variance explained) that varies on a decadal scale very closely to the NS-NSS mean level flcutuations. Also, the amplification in the temporal amplitude of the dominant steric sea level EOF corresponds to the acceleration observed in the NS-NSS mean sea level signal. This suggests that decadal variations in the mean level of the North Sea - the Norwegian Sea Shelf reflect changes in the Subpolar Front currents (Rossby, 1996).

  20. Regional Sea Level Variation: California Coastal Subsidence (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blewitt, G.; Hammond, W. C.; Nerem, R.

    2013-12-01

    Satellite altimetry over the last two decades has measured variations in geocentric sea level (GSL), relative to the Earth system center of mass, providing valuable data to test models of physical oceanography and the effects of global climate change. The societal impacts of sea level change however relate to variations in local sea level (LSL), relative to the land at the coast. Therefore, assessing the impacts of sea level change requires coastal measurements of vertical land motion (VLM). Indeed, ΔLSL = ΔGSL - ΔVLM, with subsidence mapping 1:1 into LSL. Measurements of secular coastal VLM also allow tide-gauge data to test models of GSL over the last century in some locations, which cannot be provided by satellite data. Here we use GPS geodetic data within 15 km of the US west coast to infer regional, secular VLM. A total of 89 GPS stations met the criteria that time series span >4.5 yr, and do not have obvious non-linear variation, as may be caused by local instability. VLM rates for the GPS stations are derived in the secular reference frame ITRF2008, which aligns with the Earth system center of mass to ×0.5 mm/yr. We find that regional VLM has different behavior north and south of the Mendocino Triple Junction (MTJ). The California coast has a coherent regional pattern of subsidence averaging 0.5 mm/yr, with an increasing trend to the north. This trend generally matches GIA model predictions. Around San Francisco Bay, the observed coastal subsidence of 1.0 mm/yr coherently decreases moving away from the Pacific Ocean to very small subsidence on the east shores of the bay. This gradient is likely caused by San Andreas-Hayward Fault tectonics, and possibly by differential surface loading across the bay and Sacramento-San Joachim River Delta. Thus in addition to the trend in subsidence from GIA going northward along the California coast, tectonics may also play a role where the plate boundary fault system approaches the coast. In contrast, we find that VLM

  1. Communicating uncertainties in assessments of future sea level rise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wikman-Svahn, P.

    2013-12-01

    How uncertainty should be managed and communicated in policy-relevant scientific assessments is directly connected to the role of science and the responsibility of scientists. These fundamentally philosophical issues influence how scientific assessments are made and how scientific findings are communicated to policymakers. It is therefore of high importance to discuss implicit assumptions and value judgments that are made in policy-relevant scientific assessments. The present paper examines these issues for the case of scientific assessments of future sea level rise. The magnitude of future sea level rise is very uncertain, mainly due to poor scientific understanding of all physical mechanisms affecting the great ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica, which together hold enough land-based ice to raise sea levels more than 60 meters if completely melted. There has been much confusion from policymakers on how different assessments of future sea levels should be interpreted. Much of this confusion is probably due to how uncertainties are characterized and communicated in these assessments. The present paper draws on the recent philosophical debate on the so-called "value-free ideal of science" - the view that science should not be based on social and ethical values. Issues related to how uncertainty is handled in scientific assessments are central to this debate. This literature has much focused on how uncertainty in data, parameters or models implies that choices have to be made, which can have social consequences. However, less emphasis has been on how uncertainty is characterized when communicating the findings of a study, which is the focus of the present paper. The paper argues that there is a tension between on the one hand the value-free ideal of science and on the other hand usefulness for practical applications in society. This means that even if the value-free ideal could be upheld in theory, by carefully constructing and hedging statements characterizing

  2. The effect of regional sea level atmospheric pressure on sea level variations at globally distributed tide gauge stations with long records

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Iz, H. Bâki

    2018-05-01

    This study provides additional information about the impact of atmospheric pressure on sea level variations. The observed regularity in sea level atmospheric pressure depends mainly on the latitude and verified to be dominantly random closer to the equator. It was demonstrated that almost all the annual and semiannual sea level variations at 27 globally distributed tide gauge stations can be attributed to the regional/local atmospheric forcing as an inverted barometric effect. Statistically significant non-linearities were detected in the regional atmospheric pressure series, which in turn impacted other sea level variations as compounders in tandem with the lunar nodal forcing, generating lunar sub-harmonics with multidecadal periods. It was shown that random component of regional atmospheric pressure tends to cluster at monthly intervals. The clusters are likely to be caused by the intraannual seasonal atmospheric temperature changes,which may also act as random beats in generating sub-harmonics observed in sea level changes as another mechanism. This study also affirmed that there are no statistically significant secular trends in the progression of regional atmospheric pressures, hence there was no contribution to the sea level trends during the 20th century by the atmospheric pressure.Meanwhile, the estimated nonuniform scale factors of the inverted barometer effects suggest that the sea level atmospheric pressure will bias the sea level trends inferred from satellite altimetry measurements if their impact is accounted for as corrections without proper scaling.

  3. Roles of Sea Level and Climate Change in the Development of Holocene Deltaic Sequences in the Yellow Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, J.; Milliman, J. D.

    2002-12-01

    Both post-glacial sea-level and climatic changes are preserved in the the shallow, low gradient, sediment-dominated Yellow Sea. As a result of rapid flooding during melt-water pulse (MWP) 1A, 14.3-14.1 ka BP, sea level reached the southern edge of the North Yellow Sea (NYS), and after MWP-1B (11.6-11.4 ka BP) sea level entered the Bohai Sea. The first major Yellow River-derived deltaic deposit formed in the NYS during decelerated transgression following MWP-1B and increased river discharge in response to re-intensification of the summer monsoon about 11 ka cal BP. A second subaqueous delta formed in the South Yellow Sea about 9-7 ka BP during decelerated transgression after MWP-1C flooding and in response to the southern shift of the Yellow River mouth. The modern subaqueous and subaerial deltas in the west Bahai Gulf and (to a lesser extent) along the Jiangus coast have formed during the modern sea-level highstand. These changing Holocene patterns are most clearly illustrated by a short film clip.

  4. Regional Sea Level Changes and Projections over North Pacific Driven by Air-sea interaction and Inter-basin Teleconnections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, X.; Zhu, J.; Xie, S. P.

    2017-12-01

    After the launch of the TOPEX/Poseidon satellite since 1992, a series of regional sea level changes have been observed. The northwestern Pacific is among the most rapid sea-level-rise regions all over the world. The rising peak occurs around 40°N, with the value reaching 15cm in the past two decades. Moreover, when investigating the projection of global sea level changes using CMIP5 rcp simulations, we found that the northwestern Pacific remains one of the most rapid sea-level-rise regions in the 21st century. To investigate the physical dynamics of present and future sea level changes over the Pacific, we performed a series of numerical simulations with a hierarchy of climate models, including earth system model, ocean model, and atmospheric models, with different complexity. Simulation results indicate that this regional sea level change during the past two decades is mainly caused by the shift of the Kuroshio, which is largely driven by the surface wind anomaly associated with an intensified and northward shifted north Pacific sub-tropical high. Further analysis and simulations show that these changes of sub-tropical high can be primarily attributed to the regional SST forcing from the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and the remote SST forcings from the tropical Atlantic and the Indian Ocean. In the rcp scenario, on the other hand, two processes are crucial. Firstly, the meridional temperature SST gradient drives a northward wind anomaly across the equator, raising the sea level all over the North Pacific. Secondly, the atmospheric circulation changes around the sub-tropical Pacific further increase the sea level of the North Western Pacific. The coastal region around the Northwest Pacific is the most densely populated region around the world, therefore more attention must be paid to the sea level changes over this region, as suggested by our study.

  5. Impact of relative sea level and rapid climate changes on the architecture and lithofacies of the Holocene Rhone subaqueous delta (Western Mediterranean Sea)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fanget, Anne-Sophie; Berné, Serge; Jouet, Gwénaël; Bassetti, Maria-Angela; Dennielou, Bernard; Maillet, Grégoire M.; Tondut, Mathieu

    2014-05-01

    The modern Rhone delta in the Gulf of Lions (NW Mediterranean) is a typical wave-dominated delta that developed after the stabilization of relative sea level following the last deglacial sea-level rise. Similar to most other deltas worldwide, it displays several stacked parasequences and lobes that reflect the complex interaction between accommodation, sediment supply and autogenic processes on the architecture of a wave-dominated delta. The interpretation of a large set of newly acquired very high-resolution seismic and sedimentological data, well constrained by 14C dates, provides a refined three-dimensional image of the detailed architecture (seismic bounding surfaces, sedimentary facies) of the Rhone subaqueous delta, and allows us to propose a scenario for delta evolution during the last deglaciation and Holocene. The subaqueous delta consists of “parasequence-like” depositional wedges, a few metres to 20-30 m in thickness. These wedges first back-stepped inland toward the NW in response to combined global sea-level rise and overall westward oceanic circulation, at a time when sediment supply could not keep pace with rapid absolute (eustatic) sea-level rise. At the Younger Dryas-Preboreal transition, more rapid sea-level rise led to the formation of a major flooding surface (equivalent to a wave ravinement surface). After stabilization of global sea level in the mid-Holocene, accommodation became the leading factor in controlling delta architecture. An eastward shift of depocentres occurred, probably favoured by higher subsidence rate within the thick Messinian Rhone valley fill. The transition between transgressive (backstepping geometry) and regressive (prograding geometry) (para)sequences resulted in creation of a Maximum Flooding Surface (MFS) that differs from a “classical” MFS described in the literature. It consists of a coarse-grained interval incorporating reworked shoreface material within a silty clay matrix. This distinct lithofacies

  6. Quantitative analysis of Paratethys sea level change during the Messinian Salinity Crisis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de la Vara, Alba; Meijer, Paul; van Baak, Christiaan; Marzocchi, Alice; Grothe, Arjen

    2016-04-01

    At the time of the Messinian Salinity Crisis in the Mediterranean Sea (i.e., the Pontian stage of the Paratethys), the Paratethys sea level dropped also. Evidence found in the sedimentary record of the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea has been interpreted to indicate that a sea level fall occurred between 5.6 and 5.5 Ma. Estimates for the magnitude of the fall range between tens of meters to more than 1500 m. The purpose of this study is to provide quantitative insight into the sensitivity of the water level of the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea to the hydrologic budget, for the case that the Paratethys is disconnected from the Mediterranean. Using a Late Miocene bathymetry based on a palaeographic map by Popov et al. (2004) we quantify the fall in sea level, the mean salinity, and the time to reach equilibrium for a wide range of negative hydrologic budgets. By combining our results with (i) estimates derived from a recent global Late Miocene climate simulation and (ii) reconstructed basin salinities, we are able to rule out a drop in sea level of the order of 1000 m in the Caspian Sea during this time period. In the Black Sea, however, such a large sea level fall cannot be fully discarded.

  7. Ice Age Sea Level Change on a Dynamic Earth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Austermann, J.; Mitrovica, J. X.; Latychev, K.; Rovere, A.; Moucha, R.

    2014-12-01

    Changes in global mean sea level (GMSL) are a sensitive indicator of climate variability during the current ice age. Reconstructions are largely based on local sea level records, and the mapping to GMSL is computed from simulations of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) on 1-D Earth models. We argue, using two case studies, that resolving important, outstanding issues in ice age paleoclimate requires a more sophisticated consideration of mantle structure and dynamics. First, we consider the coral record from Barbados, which is widely used to constrain global ice volume changes since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ~21 ka). Analyses of the record using 1-D viscoelastic Earth models have estimated a GMSL change since LGM of ~120 m, a value at odds with analyses of other far field records, which range from 130-135 m. We revisit the Barbados case using a GIA model that includes laterally varying Earth structure (Austermann et al., Nature Geo., 2013) and demonstrate that neglecting this structure, in particular the high-viscosity slab in the mantle linked to the subduction of the South American plate, has biased (low) previous estimates of GMSL change since LGM by ~10 m. Our analysis brings the Barbados estimate into accord with studies from other far-field sites. Second, we revisit estimates of GMSL during the mid-Pliocene warm period (MPWP, ~3 Ma), which was characterized by temperatures 2-3°C higher than present. The ice volume deficit during this period is a source of contention, with estimates ranging from 0-40 m GMSL equivalent. We argue that refining estimates of ice volume during MPWP requires a correction for mantle flow induced dynamic topography (DT; Rowley et al., Science, 2013), a signal neglected in previous studies of ice age sea level change. We present estimates of GIA- and DT-corrected elevations of MPWP shorelines from the U.S. east coast, Australia and South Africa in an attempt to reconcile these records with a single GMSL value.

  8. Constraining the Antarctic contribution to interglacial sea-level rise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Naish, T.; Mckay, R. M.; Barrett, P. J.; Levy, R. H.; Golledge, N. R.; Deconto, R. M.; Horgan, H. J.; Dunbar, G. B.

    2015-12-01

    Observations, models and paleoclimate reconstructions suggest that Antarctica's marine-based ice sheets behave in an unstable manner with episodes of rapid retreat in response to warming climate. Understanding the processes involved in this "marine ice sheet instability" is key for improving estimates of Antarctic ice sheet contribution to future sea-level rise. Another motivating factor is that far-field sea-level reconstructions and ice sheet models imply global mean sea level (GMSL) was up to 20m and 10m higher, respectively, compared with present day, during the interglacials of the warm Pliocene (~4-3Ma) and Late Pleistocene (at ~400ka and 125ka). This was when atmospheric CO2 was between 280 and 400ppm and global average surface temperatures were 1- 3°C warmer, suggesting polar ice sheets are highly sensitive to relatively modest increases in climate forcing. Such magnitudes of GMSL rise not only require near complete melt of the Greenland Ice Sheet and the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, but a substantial retreat of marine-based sectors of East Antarctic Ice Sheet. Recent geological drilling initiatives on the continental margin of Antarctica from both ship- (e.g. IODP; International Ocean Discovery Program) and ice-based (e.g. ANDRILL/Antarctic Geological Drilling) platforms have provided evidence supporting retreat of marine-based ice. However, without direct access through the ice sheet to archives preserved within sub-glacial sedimentary basins, the volume and extent of ice sheet retreat during past interglacials cannot be directly constrained. Sediment cores have been successfully recovered from beneath ice shelves by the ANDRILL Program and ice streams by the WISSARD (Whillans Ice Stream Sub-glacial Access Research Drilling) Project. Together with the potential of the new RAID (Rapid Access Ice Drill) initiative, these demonstrate the technological feasibility of accessing the subglacial bed and deeper sedimentary archives. In this talk I will outline the

  9. Sea level rise under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schleussner, C. F.; Nauels, A.; Rogelj, J.; Mengel, M.; Meinshausen, M.

    2017-12-01

    In order to assess future sea level rise and its impacts, we need to study climate change pathways combined with different scenarios of socioeconomic development. Here, we present Sea Level Rise (SLR) projections for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) storylines and different year-2100 radiative Forcing Targets (FTs). Future SLR is estimated with a comprehensive SLR emulator that accounts for latest research on additional Antarctic rapid discharge dynamics from hydrofracturing and ice cliff instability. Across all baseline scenario realizations (no dedicated climate mitigation), we find 2100 median SLR relative to 1986-2005 of 102 cm (likely range: 77 to 135 cm) for SSP1, 118 cm (90 to 151 cm) for SSP2, 118 cm (91 to 149 cm) for SSP3, 107 cm (81 to 137 cm) for SSP4, and 144 cm (112 to 184 cm) for SSP5. The 2100 sea level responses for combined SSP-FT scenarios is dominated by the mitigation targets and yield median estimates of 68 cm (56 to 87 cm) for FT 2.6 Wm-2, 76 cm (61 to 107 cm) for FT 3.4 Wm-2, 90 cm (68 to 120 cm) for FT 4.5 Wm-2, and 105 cm (79 to 136 cm) for FT 6.0 Wm-2. Average 2081-2100 annual rates of SLR are 6 mm/yr and 19 mm/yr for the FT 2.6 Wm-2 and the baseline scenarios, respectively. Our model setup allows linking scenario-specific emission and socioeconomic indicators to projected SLR. For limiting median 2100 SSP SLR projections to below 80 cm, we find that 2050 cumulative CO2 emissions since pre-industrial should not exceed around 860 GtC, with the global coal phase-out nearly completed. For SSP mitigation scenarios, the median 2050 carbon price of 90 US$2005 tCO2-1 would correspond to a median 2100 SLR of around 80 cm. Our results confirm that rapid and early emission reductions are essential for limiting 2100 SLR.

  10. Patch testing with serial dilutions and thin-layer chromatograms of oak moss absolutes containing high and low levels of atranol and chloroatranol.

    PubMed

    Mowitz, Martin; Zimerson, Erik; Svedman, Cecilia; Bruze, Magnus

    2013-12-01

    Oak moss absolute (Evernia prunastri extract) contains a large number of substances, among them the potent allergens atranol and chloroatranol. Since 2008, their content in oak moss absolute has been restricted by the International Fragrance Association to a maximum level of 100 ppm each. To compare the elicitation capacities of a traditional (sample A) and a treated (sample B) oak moss absolute containing, in total, 27 000 and 66 ppm of atranol and chloroatranol, respectively, and to investigate reactions to components of oak moss absolute separated by thin-layer chromatography (TLC). Fifteen oak moss-allergic subjects were patch tested with serial dilutions and TLC strips of samples A and B. Fifteen subjects reacted to sample A at concentrations ≤ 2.0%, and 2 subjects reacted to sample B at 2.0% but not to lower concentrations. Among 13 subjects reacting to the TLC strip of sample A, 11 reacted to spots with retardation factor values corresponding to those of atranol and/or chloroatranol, and 11 reacted to other areas on the TLC strip. Only one subject reacted to the TLC strip of sample B. The patch test reactivity of sample B was significantly lower than that of sample A. The TLC patch tests indicate the presence of sensitizers other than atranol and chloroatranol in oak moss absolute. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  11. Study of the optimum level of electrode placement for the evaluation of absolute lung resistivity with the Mk3.5 EIT system.

    PubMed

    Nebuya, S; Noshiro, M; Yonemoto, A; Tateno, S; Brown, B H; Smallwood, R H; Milnes, P

    2006-05-01

    Inter-subject variability has caused the majority of previous electrical impedance tomography (EIT) techniques to focus on the derivation of relative or difference measures of in vivo tissue resistivity. Implicit in these techniques is the requirement for a reference or previously defined data set. This study assesses the accuracy and optimum electrode placement strategy for a recently developed method which estimates an absolute value of organ resistivity without recourse to a reference data set. Since this measurement of tissue resistivity is absolute, in Ohm metres, it should be possible to use EIT measurements for the objective diagnosis of lung diseases such as pulmonary oedema and emphysema. However, the stability and reproducibility of the method have not yet been investigated fully. To investigate these problems, this study used a Sheffield Mk3.5 system which was configured to operate with eight measurement electrodes. As a result of this study, the absolute resistivity measurement was found to be insensitive to the electrode level between 4 and 5 cm above the xiphoid process. The level of the electrode plane was varied between 2 cm and 7 cm above the xiphoid process. Absolute lung resistivity in 18 normal subjects (age 22.6 +/- 4.9, height 169.1 +/- 5.7 cm, weight 60.6 +/- 4.5 kg, body mass index 21.2 +/- 1.6: mean +/- standard deviation) was measured during both normal and deep breathing for 1 min. Three sets of measurements were made over a period of several days on each of nine of the normal male subjects. No significant differences in absolute lung resistivity were found, either during normal tidal breathing between the electrode levels of 4 and 5 cm (9.3 +/- 2.4 Omega m, 9.6 +/- 1.9 Omega m at 4 and 5 cm, respectively: mean +/- standard deviation) or during deep breathing between the electrode levels of 4 and 5 cm (10.9 +/- 2.9 Omega m and 11.1 +/- 2.3 Omega m, respectively: mean +/- standard deviation). However, the differences in absolute lung

  12. Absolute Summ

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Phillips, Alfred, Jr.

    Summ means the entirety of the multiverse. It seems clear, from the inflation theories of A. Guth and others, that the creation of many universes is plausible. We argue that Absolute cosmological ideas, not unlike those of I. Newton, may be consistent with dynamic multiverse creations. As suggested in W. Heisenberg's uncertainty principle, and with the Anthropic Principle defended by S. Hawking, et al., human consciousness, buttressed by findings of neuroscience, may have to be considered in our models. Predictability, as A. Einstein realized with Invariants and General Relativity, may be required for new ideas to be part of physics. We present here a two postulate model geared to an Absolute Summ. The seedbed of this work is part of Akhnaton's philosophy (see S. Freud, Moses and Monotheism). Most important, however, is that the structure of human consciousness, manifest in Kenya's Rift Valley 200,000 years ago as Homo sapiens, who were the culmination of the six million year co-creation process of Hominins and Nature in Africa, allows us to do the physics that we do. .

  13. Revisiting global mean sea level budget closure : Preliminary results from an integrative study within ESA's Climate Change Initiative -Sea level Budget Closure-Climate Change Initiative

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Palanisamy, H.; Cazenave, A. A.

    2017-12-01

    The global mean sea level budget is revisited over two time periods: the entire altimetry era, 1993-2015 and the Argo/GRACE era, 2003-2015 using the version '0' of sea level components estimated by the SLBC-CCI teams. The SLBC-CCI is an European Space Agency's project on sea level budget closure using CCI products. Over the entire altimetry era, the sea level budget was performed as the sum of steric and mass components that include contributions from total land water storage, glaciers, ice sheets (Greenland and Antarctica) and total water vapor content. Over the Argo/GRACE era, it was performed as the sum of steric and GRACE based ocean mass. Preliminary budget analysis performed over the altimetry era (1993-2015) results in a trend value of 2.83 mm/yr. On comparison with the observed altimetry-based global mean sea level trend over the same period (3.03 ± 0.5 mm/yr), we obtain a residual of 0.2 mm/yr. In spite of a residual of 0.2 mm/yr, the sea level budget result obtained over the altimetry era is very promising as this has been performed using the version '0' of the sea level components. Furthermore, uncertainties are not yet included in this study as uncertainty estimation for each sea level component is currently underway. Over the Argo/GRACE era (2003-2015), the trend estimated from the sum of steric and GRACE ocean mass amounts to 2.63 mm/yr while that observed by satellite altimetry is 3.37 mm/yr, thereby leaving a residual of 0.7 mm/yr. Here an ensemble GRACE ocean mass data (mean of various available GRACE ocean mass data) was used for the estimation. Using individual GRACE data results in a residual range of 0.5 mm/yr -1.1 mm/yr. Investigations are under way to determine the cause of the vast difference between the observed sea level and the sea level obtained from steric and GRACE ocean mass. One main suspect is the impact of GRACE data gaps on sea level budget analysis due to lack of GRACE data over several months since 2011. The current action plan

  14. Ice sheet-ocean interactions and sea level change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heimbach, Patrick

    2014-03-01

    Mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets has increased rapidly since the mid-1990s. Their combined loss now accounts for about one-third of global sea level rise. In Greenland, a growing body of evidence points to the marine margins of these glaciers as the region from which this dynamic response originated. Similarly, ice streams in West Antarctica that feed vast floating ice shelves have exhibited large decadal changes. We review observational evidence and present physical mechanisms that might explain the observed changes, in particular in the context of ice sheet-ocean interactions. Processes involve cover 7 orders of magnitudes of scales, ranging from mm boundary-layer processes to basin-scale coupled atmosphere-ocean variability. We discuss observational needs to fill the gap in our mechanistic understanding.

  15. Greenland ice cores tell tales on past sea level changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dahl-Jensen, D.

    2017-12-01

    All the deep ice cores drilled to the base of the Greenland ice sheet contain ice from the previous warm climate period, the Eemian 130-115 thousand years before present. This demonstrates the resilience of the Greenland ice sheet to a warming of 5 oC. Studies of basal material further reveal the presence of boreal forest over Greenland before ice covered Greenland. Conditions for Boreal forest implies temperatures at this time has been more than 10 oC warmer than the present. To compare the paleo-behavior of the Greenland ice sheet to the present in relation to sea level rise knowledge gabs include the reaction of ice streams to climate changes. To address this the international EGRIP-project is drilling an ice core in the center of the North East Greenland Ice Stream (NEGIS). The first results will be presented.

  16. Metal tissue levels in Steller sea lion (Eumetopias jubatus) pups.

    PubMed

    Holmes, Amie L; Wise, Sandra S; Goertz, Caroline E C; Dunn, J Lawrence; Gulland, Frances M D; Gelatt, Tom; Beckmen, Kimberlee B; Burek, Kathy; Atkinson, Shannon; Bozza, Mary; Taylor, Robert; Zheng, Tongzhang; Zhang, Yawei; Aboueissa, Abouel-Makarim; Wise, John Pierce

    2008-08-01

    The endangered Western population of the Steller sea lion declined for three decades for uncertain reasons. We present baseline data of metal concentrations in pups as a first step towards investigating the potential threat of developmental exposures to contaminants. Seven metals were investigated: arsenic, cadmium, silver, aluminum, mercury, lead and vanadium. Vanadium was detected in only a single blubber sample. Mercury appears to be the most toxicologically significant metal with concentrations in the liver well above the current action level for mercury in fish. The concentrations of aluminum, arsenic, silver, cadmium and lead were present in one-fourth to two-thirds of all samples and were at either comparable or below concentrations previously reported. Neither gender nor region had a significant effect on metal burdens. Future work should consider metal concentrations in juveniles and adults and toxicological studies need to be performed to begin to assess the toxicity of these metals.

  17. Climate sensitivity, sea level and atmospheric carbon dioxide

    PubMed Central

    Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Russell, Gary; Kharecha, Pushker

    2013-01-01

    Cenozoic temperature, sea level and CO2 covariations provide insights into climate sensitivity to external forcings and sea-level sensitivity to climate change. Climate sensitivity depends on the initial climate state, but potentially can be accurately inferred from precise palaeoclimate data. Pleistocene climate oscillations yield a fast-feedback climate sensitivity of 3±1°C for a 4 W m−2 CO2 forcing if Holocene warming relative to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is used as calibration, but the error (uncertainty) is substantial and partly subjective because of poorly defined LGM global temperature and possible human influences in the Holocene. Glacial-to-interglacial climate change leading to the prior (Eemian) interglacial is less ambiguous and implies a sensitivity in the upper part of the above range, i.e. 3–4°C for a 4 W m−2 CO2 forcing. Slow feedbacks, especially change of ice sheet size and atmospheric CO2, amplify the total Earth system sensitivity by an amount that depends on the time scale considered. Ice sheet response time is poorly defined, but we show that the slow response and hysteresis in prevailing ice sheet models are exaggerated. We use a global model, simplified to essential processes, to investigate state dependence of climate sensitivity, finding an increased sensitivity towards warmer climates, as low cloud cover is diminished and increased water vapour elevates the tropopause. Burning all fossil fuels, we conclude, would make most of the planet uninhabitable by humans, thus calling into question strategies that emphasize adaptation to climate change. PMID:24043864

  18. Climate Sensitivity, Sea Level, and Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Russell, Gary; Kharecha, Pushker

    2013-01-01

    Cenozoic temperature, sea level and CO2 covariations provide insights into climate sensitivity to external forcings and sea-level sensitivity to climate change. Climate sensitivity depends on the initial climate state, but potentially can be accurately inferred from precise palaeoclimate data. Pleistocene climate oscillations yield a fast-feedback climate sensitivity of 3+/-1deg C for a 4 W/sq m CO2 forcing if Holocene warming relative to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is used as calibration, but the error (uncertainty) is substantial and partly subjective because of poorly defined LGM global temperature and possible human influences in the Holocene. Glacial-to-interglacial climate change leading to the prior (Eemian) interglacial is less ambiguous and implies a sensitivity in the upper part of the above range, i.e. 3-4deg C for a 4 W/sq m CO2 forcing. Slow feedbacks, especially change of ice sheet size and atmospheric CO2, amplify the total Earth system sensitivity by an amount that depends on the time scale considered. Ice sheet response time is poorly defined, but we show that the slow response and hysteresis in prevailing ice sheet models are exaggerated. We use a global model, simplified to essential processes, to investigate state dependence of climate sensitivity, finding an increased sensitivity towards warmer climates, as low cloud cover is diminished and increased water vapour elevates the tropopause. Burning all fossil fuels, we conclude, would make most of the planet uninhabitable by humans, thus calling into question strategies that emphasize adaptation to climate change.

  19. Spectral analysis of highly aliased sea-level signals

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ray, Richard D.

    1998-10-01

    Observing high-wavenumber ocean phenomena with a satellite altimeter generally calls for "along-track" analyses of the data: measurements along a repeating satellite ground track are analyzed in a point-by-point fashion, as opposed to spatially averaging data over multiple tracks. The sea-level aliasing problems encountered in such analyses can be especially challenging. For TOPEX/POSEIDON, all signals with frequency greater than 18 cycles per year (cpy), including both tidal and subdiurnal signals, are folded into the 0-18 cpy band. Because the tidal bands are wider than 18 cpy, residual tidal cusp energy, plus any subdiurnal energy, is capable of corrupting any low-frequency signal of interest. The practical consequences of this are explored here by using real sea-level measurements from conventional tide gauges, for which the true oceanographic spectrum is known and to which a simulated "satellite-measured" spectrum, based on coarsely subsampled data, may be compared. At many locations the spectrum is sufficently red that interannual frequencies remain unaffected. Intra-annual frequencies, however, must be interpreted with greater caution, and even interannual frequencies can be corrupted if the spectrum is flat. The results also suggest that whenever tides must be estimated directly from the altimetry, response methods of analysis are preferable to harmonic methods, even in nonlinear regimes; this will remain so for the foreseeable future. We concentrate on three example tide gauges: two coastal stations on the Malay Peninsula where the closely aliased K1 and Ssa tides are strong and at Canton Island where trapped equatorial waves are aliased.

  20. Climate sensitivity, sea level and atmospheric carbon dioxide.

    PubMed

    Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Russell, Gary; Kharecha, Pushker

    2013-10-28

    Cenozoic temperature, sea level and CO2 covariations provide insights into climate sensitivity to external forcings and sea-level sensitivity to climate change. Climate sensitivity depends on the initial climate state, but potentially can be accurately inferred from precise palaeoclimate data. Pleistocene climate oscillations yield a fast-feedback climate sensitivity of 3±1(°)C for a 4 W m(-2) CO2 forcing if Holocene warming relative to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is used as calibration, but the error (uncertainty) is substantial and partly subjective because of poorly defined LGM global temperature and possible human influences in the Holocene. Glacial-to-interglacial climate change leading to the prior (Eemian) interglacial is less ambiguous and implies a sensitivity in the upper part of the above range, i.e. 3-4(°)C for a 4 W m(-2) CO2 forcing. Slow feedbacks, especially change of ice sheet size and atmospheric CO2, amplify the total Earth system sensitivity by an amount that depends on the time scale considered. Ice sheet response time is poorly defined, but we show that the slow response and hysteresis in prevailing ice sheet models are exaggerated. We use a global model, simplified to essential processes, to investigate state dependence of climate sensitivity, finding an increased sensitivity towards warmer climates, as low cloud cover is diminished and increased water vapour elevates the tropopause. Burning all fossil fuels, we conclude, would make most of the planet uninhabitable by humans, thus calling into question strategies that emphasize adaptation to climate change.

  1. Spatial variation of statistical properties of extreme water levels along the eastern Baltic Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pindsoo, Katri; Soomere, Tarmo; Rocha, Eugénio

    2016-04-01

    Most of existing projections of future extreme water levels rely on the use of classic generalised extreme value distributions. The choice to use a particular distribution is often made based on the absolute value of the shape parameter of the Generalise Extreme Value distribution. If this parameter is small, the Gumbel distribution is most appropriate while in the opposite case the Weibull or Frechet distribution could be used. We demonstrate that the alongshore variation in the statistical properties of numerically simulated high water levels along the eastern coast of the Baltic Sea is so large that the use of a single distribution for projections of extreme water levels is highly questionable. The analysis is based on two simulated data sets produced in the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute. The output of the Rossby Centre Ocean model is sampled with a resolution of 6 h and the output of the circulation model NEMO with a resolution of 1 h. As the maxima of water levels of subsequent years may be correlated in the Baltic Sea, we also employ maxima for stormy seasons. We provide a detailed analysis of spatial variation of the parameters of the family of extreme value distributions along an approximately 600 km long coastal section from the north-western shore of Latvia in the Baltic Proper until the eastern Gulf of Finland. The parameters are evaluated using maximum likelihood method and method of moments. The analysis also covers the entire Gulf of Riga. The core parameter of this family of distributions, the shape parameter of the Generalised Extreme Value distribution, exhibits extensive variation in the study area. Its values evaluated using the Hydrognomon software and maximum likelihood method, vary from about -0.1 near the north-western coast of Latvia in the Baltic Proper up to about 0.05 in the eastern Gulf of Finland. This parameter is very close to zero near Tallinn in the western Gulf of Finland. Thus, it is natural that the Gumbel

  2. Quantifying and Projecting Relative Sea-Level Rise At The Regional Scale: The Bangladesh Sea-Level Project (BanD-AID)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shum, C. K.; Kuo, C. Y.; Guo, J.; Shang, K.; Tseng, K. H.; Wan, J.; Calmant, S.; Ballu, V.; Valty, P.; Kusche, J.; Hossain, F.; Khan, Z. H.; Rietbroek, R.; Uebbing, B.

    2014-12-01

    The potential for accelerated sea-level rise under anthropogenic warming is a significant societal problem, in particular in world's coastal deltaic regions where about half of the world's population resides. Quantifying geophysical sources of sea-level rise with the goal of improved projection at local scales remains a complex and challenging interdisciplinary research problem. These processes include ice-sheet/glacier ablations, steric sea-level, solid Earth uplift or subsidence due to GIA, tectonics, sediment loading or anthropogenic causes, hydrologic imbalance, and human processes including water retention in reservoirs and aquifer extraction. The 2013 IPCC AR5 concluded that the observed and explained geophysical causes of global geocentric sea-level rise, 1993-2010, is closer towards closure. However, the discrepancy reveals that circa 1.3→37.5% of the observed sea-level rise remains unexplained. This relatively large discrepancy is primarily attributable to the wide range of estimates of respective contributions of Greenland and Antarctic ice-sheets and mountain/peripheral glaciers to sea-level rise. Understanding and quantifying the natural and anthropogenic processes governing solid Earth (land, islands and sea-floor) uplift or subsidence at the regional and local scales remain elusive to enable addressing coastal vulnerability due to relative sea-level rise hazards, such as the Bangladesh Delta. This study focuses on addressing coastal vulnerability of Bangladesh, a Belmont Forum/IGFA project, BanD-AID (http://Belmont-SeaLevel.org). Sea-level rise, along with tectonic, sediment load and groundwater extraction induced land uplift/subsidence, have exacerbated Bangladesh's coastal vulnerability, affecting 150 million people in one of the world's most densely populated regions. Here we present preliminary results using space geodetic observations, including satellite radar and laser altimetry, GRACE gravity, tide gauge, hydrographic, and GPS/InSAR observed

  3. Modeling storm and sea level rise impacts on marsh transgression

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carr, J. A.; Guntenspergen, G. R.; Kirwan, M. L.

    2016-12-01

    Coastal salt marsh systems provide critical ecosystem services, including key habitat and coastal protection. Both lateral extent, and vertical stability of salt marshes to sea level rise have been shown to be functions of both biotic, and abiotic drivers and feedbacks. As a result, the ecogeomorphic evolution of the system can exhibit strong non-linearities, discontinuities and thresholds. We developed a two-dimensional transect model to explore controls on marsh lateral extent, vertical stability and the potential for marsh transgression inland and upland. Salt marsh and upland regions in the model are discretized in 1 m increments with inundation frequency determined by the elevation of the individual cells, organogenic soil formation and mineral deposition rates, and the history of stochastic water levels. The transect extends from an idealized back barrier bay across the salt marsh platform and into the upland forest and is forced with auto and cross correlated synthetic stochastic wind speed, wind direction and water levels. The model incorporates key feedbacks between fetch, wave growth and subsequent lateral erosion rates and sediment supply to the marsh platform. Deposition of mineral sediment from the bay and/or internal ponds onto the marsh platform cells is dependent both on the inundation frequency and distance from a marsh edge. For each element along the transect, a Markov chain successional model was implemented that considers six distinct states, grass/saltmarsh, seedling, sapling, tree, dead standing tree, and bare. A non-static transition probability matrix, dependent on both inundation of the element and the prior vegetation state, was used in order to allow for feedbacks, both positive and negative, among different vegetation states and environmental drivers. The model was used to examine the qualitative behavior of the coupled systems under varied rates of sea level rise, external sediment supply, wind and storm statistics, tidal range, upland

  4. Incorporating Sediment Compaction Into a Gravitationally Self-consistent Model for Global Sea-level Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ferrier, K.; Mitrovica, J. X.

    2015-12-01

    In sedimentary deltas and fans, sea-level changes are strongly modulated by the deposition and compaction of marine sediment. The deposition of sediment and incorporation of water into the sedimentary pore space reduces sea level by increasing the elevation of the seafloor, which reduces the thickness of sea-water above the bed. In a similar manner, the compaction of sediment and purging of water out of the sedimentary pore space increases sea level by reducing the elevation of the seafloor, which increases the thickness of sea water above the bed. Here we show how one can incorporate the effects of sediment deposition and compaction into the global, gravitationally self-consistent sea-level model of Dalca et al. (2013). Incorporating sediment compaction requires accounting for only one additional quantity that had not been accounted for in Dalca et al. (2013): the mean porosity in the sediment column. We provide a general analytic framework for global sea-level changes including sediment deposition and compaction, and we demonstrate how sea level responds to deposition and compaction under one simple parameterization for compaction. The compaction of sediment generates changes in sea level only by changing the elevation of the seafloor. That is, sediment compaction does not affect the mass load on the crust, and therefore does not generate perturbations in crustal elevation or the gravity field that would further perturb sea level. These results have implications for understanding sedimentary effects on sea-level changes and thus for disentangling the various drivers of sea-level change. ReferencesDalca A.V., Ferrier K.L., Mitrovica J.X., Perron J.T., Milne G.A., Creveling J.R., 2013. On postglacial sea level - III. Incorporating sediment redistribution. Geophysical Journal International, doi: 10.1093/gji/ggt089.

  5. The Holocene palaeogeography and relative sea level for two tidal basins of the German North Sea coast

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bungenstock, Friederike; Wartenberg, Wolfram; Mauz, Barbara; Freund, Holger; Frechen, Manfred; Weerts, Henk J. T.; Berner, Heinrich

    2014-05-01

    The response of coasts to global sea-level rise is highly variable. Knowledge of driving coastal parameters alongside the regional sea-level history is therefore indispensable when the response to global sea-level rise is to be assessed. Here, we study the Holocene relative sea-level of the south coast of the North Sea which is controlled by a number of very local parameters, as well as by regional glacio-isostatic adjustments. It is therefore crucial to restrict the data acquisition and evaluation to small coastal sections, ideally to single tidal basins, to minimize the sources of uncertainties (Bungenstock & Weerts 2010, 2012). We present data from two tidal basins, Langeoog and Jade Bay. For Langeoog a database derived from 600 cores, 68 km of Boomer seismic data, 33 radiocarbon ages and 8 OSL dates is available. (Bungenstock & Schäfer 2009, Mauz & Bungenstock 2007). For the Jade bay, the database comprises sedimentary markers, pollen and macro remains derived from 68 cores. The sedentary chronology is based on 54 radiocarbon ages and pollen constraints (Wartenberg & Freund 2011, Wartenberg et al. 2013). For both tidal basins the sedimentological record was interpreted in terms of the local paleogeographical development since about 7000 cal BP and its influence on the local relative sea-level curve. While the trend of the relative sea level is similar for both tidal basins, it shows a different altitude. The timing of the main marine transgression within the Langeoog area takes place ~3000 cal. BP whereas the sedimentological record of the Jade Bay shows two prominent transgressions, one for ~5000 cal. BP and one for ~3000 cal. BP. The Langeoog palaeo-environment is continuously characterised by marine influence. Within the Jade Bay two different palaeo-environments could be identified, documenting that from the West to the centre the landscape development in the Jade Bay was drainage driven feeding the associated fen peat with minerogenic water but being

  6. XXI century projections of wind-wave conditions and sea-level rise in the Black sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Polonsky, A.; Garmashov, A.; Fomin, V.; Valchev, N.; Trifonova, E.

    2012-04-01

    Projection of regional climate changes for XXI century is one of the priorities of EC environmental programme. Potential worsening of the waves' statistics, sea level rise and extreme surges are the principal negative consequences of the climate change for marine environment. That is why the main purpose of this presentation is to discuss the above issue for the Black sea region (with a strong focus to the south-west subregion because the maximum heights of waves exceeding 10 m occur just here) using output of several global coupled models (GCM) for XXI century, wave simulation, long-term observations of sea level and statistical techniques. First of all we tried to choose the best coupled model (s) simulated the Black sea climate change and variability using the control experiments for 20 century (203). The principal result is as follows. There is not one model which is simulating adequately even one atmospheric parameter for all seasons. Therefore we considered (for the climate projection) different outputs form various models. When it was possible we calculated also the ensemble mean projection for the selected model (s) and emission scenarios. To calculate the wave projection we used the output of SWAN model forced by the GCM wind projection for 2010 to 2100. To estimate the sea level rise in XXI century and future surges statistics we extrapolate the observed sea level rise tendencies, statistical relation between wave heights and sea level and wave scenarios. Results show that in general, the climate change in XXI century doesn't lead to the catastrophic change of the Black sea wind-wave statistics including the extreme waves in the S-W Black sea. The typical atmospheric pattern leading to the intense storm in the S-W Black sea is characterized by the persistent anticyclonic area to the North of the Black sea and cyclonic conditions in the Southern Black sea region. Such pressure pattern causes persistent and strong eastern or north-eastern wind which

  7. How will coastal sea level respond to changes in natural and anthropogenic forcings by 2100?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jevrejeva, S.; Moore, J.; Grinsted, A.

    2010-12-01

    Sea level rise is perhaps the most damaging repercussion of global warming, as 150 million people live less than one meter above current high tides .Using an inverse statistical model we examine potential response in coastal sea level to the changes in natural and anthropogenic forcings by 2100. With six IPCC radiative forcing scenarios we estimate sea level rise of 0.6-1.6 m, with confidence limits of 0.59 m and 1.8 m. Projected impacts of solar and volcanic radiative forcings account only for, at maximum, 5% of total sea level rise, with anthropogenic greenhouse gasses being the dominant forcing. As alternatives to the IPCC projections, even the most intense century of volcanic forcing from the past 1000 years would result in 10-15 cm potential reduction of sea level rise. Stratospheric injections of SO2 equivalent to a Pinatubo eruption every 4 years would effectively just delay sea level rise by 12 -20 years.

  8. Sedimentary noise and sea levels linked to land-ocean water exchange and obliquity forcing.

    PubMed

    Li, Mingsong; Hinnov, Linda A; Huang, Chunju; Ogg, James G

    2018-03-08

    In ancient hothouses lacking ice sheets, the origins of large, million-year (myr)-scale sea-level oscillations remain a mystery, challenging current models of sea-level change. To address this mystery, we develop a sedimentary noise model for sea-level changes that simultaneously estimates geologic time and sea level from astronomically forced marginal marine stratigraphy. The noise model involves two complementary approaches: dynamic noise after orbital tuning (DYNOT) and lag-1 autocorrelation coefficient (ρ 1 ). Noise modeling of Lower Triassic marine slope stratigraphy in South China reveal evidence for global sea-level variations in the Early Triassic hothouse that are anti-phased with continental water storage variations in the Germanic Basin. This supports the hypothesis that long-period (1-2 myr) astronomically forced water mass exchange between land and ocean reservoirs is a missing link for reconciling geological records and models for sea-level change during non-glacial periods.

  9. Effects of sediment transport and deposition on crustal loading, Earth's gravitational field, and sea level

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ferrier, K.; Mitrovica, J. X.; Perron, T.; Milne, G. A.; Wickert, A. D.

    2012-12-01

    Spatial patterns in static sea level are controlled by the interplay between the history of ice mass variations and the associated deformational, gravitational and rotational perturbations in the Earth's state. Over the last decade, there has been a renewed effort to extend classic treatments of ice-age sea-level change (Farrell and Clark, 1976) to incorporate effects such as shoreline migration due to the local onlap or offlap of seawater and changes in the extent of grounded, marine-based ice, as well as feedbacks between sea level and the orientation of Earth's rotation axis. To date, the impact of sediment transport - whether in the context of glacial processes, or other processes such as fluvial deposition - has not been incorporated into a gravitationally self-consistent sea-level theory. Here we briefly summarize the main elements of a new sea-level theory that includes sediment transport, and we apply this new theory to investigate crustal deformation and sea-level changes driven by sediment deposition on the Mississippi fan in the Gulf of Mexico. The calculations incorporate sediment transport from the start of the last glacial cycle through to the present and are constrained to conserve sediment and ocean mass. We compare relative sea level histories predicted with and without sediment transport at sites in and around the Gulf of Mexico, and we quantify the relative impacts of gravitational and deformational effects of sediment deposition. We also explore the extent to which sea-level changes associated with sediment transport impact the interpretation of paleo-sea-level records. Our new sea-level formulation provides an important component of a comprehensive coupling between sediment transfer and sea level on local, regional and global spatial scales, and on time scales extending from decades to tens of thousands of years. References: Farrell, W.E., and Clark, J.A., 1976. On postglacial sea level: Geophysical Journal of the Royal Astronomical Society, v

  10. Implications of sediment redistribution on modeled sea-level changes over millennial timescales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ferrier, Ken

    2016-04-01

    Sea level is a critical link in feedbacks among topography, tectonics, and climate. Over millennial timescales, changes in sea level reshape river networks, regulate organic carbon burial, influence sediment deposition, and set moving boundary conditions for landscape evolution. Sea-level changes influence tectonics by regulating rates and patterns of erosion and deposition, which perturb the surface loads that drive geodynamic processes at depth. These interactions are complex because sea-level changes are influenced by the geomorphic processes that they themselves modify, since sediment redistribution deforms the gravitational and crustal elevation fields that define sea level. A recent advance in understanding the coupling between sea level, tectonics, and topography was the incorporation of sediment redistribution into a gravitationally self-consistent sea-level model, which permits the computation of sea-level responses to erosion and deposition (Dalca et al., 2013, Geophysical Journal International). Here I use this model to quantify changes in sea level resulting from the erosion of some of the most rapidly eroding sites on Earth and the deposition of sediment offshore. These model results show that the sea-level fingerprints of sediment redistribution are strongly variable in space, and that they can represent a significant component of the total sea level change since the last interglacial. This work provides a basis for understanding a fundamental driver of landscape evolution at some of Earth's most geomorphically dynamic sites, and thus aids investigation of the couplings among tectonics, climate, and topography. References Dalca A.V., Ferrier K.L., Mitrovica J.X., Perron J.T., Milne G.A., Creveling J.R., 2013. On postglacial sea level - III. Incorporating sediment redistribution. Geophysical Journal International, doi: 10.1093/gji/ggt089.

  11. Holocene sea-level changes in King George Island, West Antarctica, by virtue of geomorphological coastal evidences and diatom assemblages of sediment sections.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Poleshchuk, Ksenia; Verkulich, Sergey; Pushina, Zina; Jozhikov, Ilya

    2015-04-01

    A new curve of relative sea-level change is presented for the Fildes peninsula, King George Island, West Antarctic. This work is based on renewed paleogeography data, including coastal geomorphological evidence, diatom assemblages of lakes bottom sediments and radiocarbon datings of organics. The new data were obtained in several sections of quaternary sediments and groups of terraces, and allows us to expand and improve relevant conception about relative sea level changes in the King George Island region. The new radiocarbon datings of organics (mosses and shells) allows reconstructing Holocene conditions that maintain and cause the sea-level changes. Sea diatom assemblages of Dlinnoye lake bottom sediment core (that complies period about 8000 years B.P.) mark altitude of marine water penetrated into the lake. The altitudes of shell remains, which have certain life habits and expect specific salinity and depth conditions, coupled with their absolute datings, indicate the probable elevation of the past sea level. The Mid-Holocene marine transgression reached its maximum level of 18-20 m by 5760 years B.P. The transgression influenced the deglaciation of the Fildes peninsula and environment conditions integrally. The ratio of glacio-isostatic adjustment velocity and Holocene transgression leaded to the decrease of relative sea level during the Late Holocene excluding the short period of rising between 2000 and 1300 years B.P. Comparing this data with the curve for Bunger oasis, East Antarctica, introduced earlier gives an interesting result. Despite the maximum altitudes of relative sea-level rise in King George region were higher and occurred later than in Bunger oasis region, the short-term period of Late Holocene sea-level rising contemporizes. Besides that, this work allow to realize a correlation between regions of Antarctica and adjacent territory. That, in turn, lets answer the question of tectonic and eustatic factors ratio and their contribution to the

  12. Compounding effects of sea level rise and fluvial flooding.

    PubMed

    Moftakhari, Hamed R; Salvadori, Gianfausto; AghaKouchak, Amir; Sanders, Brett F; Matthew, Richard A

    2017-09-12

    Sea level rise (SLR), a well-documented and urgent aspect of anthropogenic global warming, threatens population and assets located in low-lying coastal regions all around the world. Common flood hazard assessment practices typically account for one driver at a time (e.g., either fluvial flooding only or ocean flooding only), whereas coastal cities vulnerable to SLR are at risk for flooding from multiple drivers (e.g., extreme coastal high tide, storm surge, and river flow). Here, we propose a bivariate flood hazard assessment approach that accounts for compound flooding from river flow and coastal water level, and we show that a univariate approach may not appropriately characterize the flood hazard if there are compounding effects. Using copulas and bivariate dependence analysis, we also quantify the increases in failure probabilities for 2030 and 2050 caused by SLR under representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5. Additionally, the increase in failure probability is shown to be strongly affected by compounding effects. The proposed failure probability method offers an innovative tool for assessing compounding flood hazards in a warming climate.

  13. A geological perspective on potential future sea-level rise

    PubMed Central

    Rohling, Eelco J.; Haigh, Ivan D.; Foster, Gavin L.; Roberts, Andrew P.; Grant, Katharine M.

    2013-01-01

    During ice-age cycles, continental ice volume kept pace with slow, multi-millennial scale, changes in climate forcing. Today, rapid greenhouse gas (GHG) increases have outpaced ice-volume responses, likely committing us to > 9 m of long-term sea-level rise (SLR). We portray a context of naturally precedented SLR from geological evidence, for comparison with historical observations and future projections. This context supports SLR of up to 0.9 (1.8) m by 2100 and 2.7 (5.0) m by 2200, relative to 2000, at 68% (95%) probability. Historical SLR observations and glaciological assessments track the upper 68% limit. Hence, modern change is rapid by past interglacial standards but within the range of ‘normal’ processes. The upper 95% limit offers a useful low probability/high risk value. Exceedance would require conditions without natural interglacial precedents, such as catastrophic ice-sheet collapse, or activation of major East Antarctic mass loss at sustained CO2 levels above 1000 ppmv. PMID:24336564

  14. Tidal wetland stability in the face of human impacts and sea-level rise.

    PubMed

    Kirwan, Matthew L; Megonigal, J Patrick

    2013-12-05

    Coastal populations and wetlands have been intertwined for centuries, whereby humans both influence and depend on the extensive ecosystem services that wetlands provide. Although coastal wetlands have long been considered vulnerable to sea-level rise, recent work has identified fascinating feedbacks between plant growth and geomorphology that allow wetlands to actively resist the deleterious effects of sea-level rise. Humans alter the strength of these feedbacks by changing the climate, nutrient inputs, sediment delivery and subsidence rates. Whether wetlands continue to survive sea-level rise depends largely on how human impacts interact with rapid sea-level rise, and socio-economic factors that influence transgression into adjacent uplands.

  15. Robustness of observation-based decadal sea level variability in the Indo-Pacific Ocean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nidheesh, A. G.; Lengaigne, M.; Vialard, J.; Izumo, T.; Unnikrishnan, A. S.; Meyssignac, B.; Hamlington, B.; de Boyer Montegut, C.

    2017-07-01

    We examine the consistency of Indo-Pacific decadal sea level variability in 10 gridded, observation-based sea level products for the 1960-2010 period. Decadal sea level variations are robust in the Pacific, with more than 50% of variance explained by decadal modulation of two flavors of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (classical ENSO and Modoki). Amplitude of decadal sea level variability is weaker in the Indian Ocean than in the Pacific. All data sets indicate a transmission of decadal sea level signals from the western Pacific to the northwest Australian coast through the Indonesian throughflow. The southern tropical Indian Ocean sea level variability is associated with decadal modulations of ENSO in reconstructions but not in reanalyses or in situ data set. The Pacific-independent Indian Ocean decadal sea level variability is not robust but tends to be maximum in the southwestern tropical Indian Ocean. The inconsistency of Indian Ocean decadal variability across the sea level products calls for caution in making definitive conclusions on decadal sea level variability in this basin.

  16. Current state and future perspectives on coupled ice-sheet - sea-level modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Boer, Bas; Stocchi, Paolo; Whitehouse, Pippa L.; van de Wal, Roderik S. W.

    2017-08-01

    The interaction between ice-sheet growth and retreat and sea-level change has been an established field of research for many years. However, recent advances in numerical modelling have shed new light on the precise interaction of marine ice sheets with the change in near-field sea level, and the related stability of the grounding line position. Studies using fully coupled ice-sheet - sea-level models have shown that accounting for gravitationally self-consistent sea-level change will act to slow down the retreat and advance of marine ice-sheet grounding lines. Moreover, by simultaneously solving the 'sea-level equation' and modelling ice-sheet flow, coupled models provide a global field of relative sea-level change that is consistent with dynamic changes in ice-sheet extent. In this paper we present an overview of recent advances, possible caveats, methodologies and challenges involved in coupled ice-sheet - sea-level modelling. We conclude by presenting a first-order comparison between a suite of relative sea-level data and output from a coupled ice-sheet - sea-level model.

  17. Coastal marsh response to historical and future sea-level acceleration

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kirwan, M.; Temmerman, S.

    2009-01-01

    We consider the response of marshland to accelerations in the rate of sea-level rise by utilizing two previously described numerical models of marsh elevation. In a model designed for the Scheldt Estuary (Belgium-SW Netherlands), a feedback between inundation depth and suspended sediment concentrations allows marshes to quickly adjust their elevation to a change in sea-level rise rate. In a model designed for the North Inlet Estuary (South Carolina), a feedback between inundation and vegetation growth allows similar adjustment. Although the models differ in their approach, we find that they predict surprisingly similar responses to sea-level change. Marsh elevations adjust to a step change in the rate of sea-level rise in about 100 years. In the case of a continuous acceleration in the rate of sea-level rise, modeled accretion rates lag behind sea-level rise rates by about 20 years, and never obtain equilibrium. Regardless of the style of acceleration, the models predict approximately 6-14 cm of marsh submergence in response to historical sea-level acceleration, and 3-4 cm of marsh submergence in response to a projected scenario of sea-level rise over the next century. While marshes already low in the tidal frame would be susceptible to these depth changes, our modeling results suggest that factors other than historical sea-level acceleration are more important for observations of degradation in most marshes today.

  18. Multidecadal Weakening of Indian Summer Monsoon Circulation Induces an Increasing Northern Indian Ocean Sea Level

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Swapna, P.; Jyoti, J.; Krishnan, R.; Sandeep, N.; Griffies, S. M.

    2017-10-01

    North Indian Ocean sea level has shown significant increase during last three to four decades. Analyses of long-term climate data sets and ocean model sensitivity experiments identify a mechanism for multidecadal sea level variability relative to global mean. Our results indicate that North Indian Ocean sea level rise is accompanied by a weakening summer monsoon circulation. Given that Indian Ocean meridional heat transport is primarily regulated by the annual cycle of monsoon winds, weakening of summer monsoon circulation has resulted in reduced upwelling off Arabia and Somalia and decreased southward heat transport, and corresponding increase of heat storage in the North Indian Ocean. These changes in turn lead to increased retention of heat and increased thermosteric sea level rise in the North Indian Ocean, especially in the Arabian Sea. These findings imply that rising North Indian Ocean sea level due to weakening of monsoon circulation demands adaptive strategies to enable a resilient South Asian population.

  19. Late Pleistocene Sea level on the New Jersey Margin: Implications to eustasy and deep-sea temperature

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wright, J.D.; Sheridan, R.E.; Miller, K.G.; Uptegrove, J.; Cramer, B.S.; Browning, J.V.

    2009-01-01

    We assembled and dated a late Pleistocene sea-level record based on sequence stratigraphy from the New Jersey margin and compared it with published records from fossil uplifted coral reefs in New Guinea, Barbados, and Araki Island, as well as a composite sea-level estimate from scaling of Red Sea isotopic values. Radiocarbon dates, amino acid racemization data, and superposition constrain the ages of large (20-80??m) sea-level falls from New Jersey that correlate with Marine Isotope Chrons (MIC) 2, 3b, 4, 5b, and 6 (the past 130??kyr). The sea-level records for MIC 1, 2, 4, 5e, and 6 are similar to those reported from New Guinea, Barbados, Araki, and the Red Sea; some differences exist among records for MIC 3. Our record consistently provides the shallowest sea level estimates for MIC3 (??? 25-60??m below present); it agrees most closely with the New Guinea record of Chappell (2002; ??? 35-70??m), but contrasts with deeper estimates provided by Araki (??? 85-95??m) and the Red Sea (50-90??m). Comparison of eustatic estimates with benthic foraminiferal ??18O records shows that the deep sea cooled ??? 2.5????C between MIC 5e and 5d (??? 120-110??ka) and that near freezing conditions persisted until Termination 1a (14-15??ka). Sea-level variations between MIC 5b and 2 (ca. 90-20??ka) follow a well-accepted 0.1???/10??m linear variation predicted by ice-growth effects on foraminiferal ??18O values. The pattern of deep-sea cooling follows a previously established hysteresis loop between two stable modes of operation. Cold, near freezing deep-water conditions characterize most of the past 130??kyr punctuated only by two warm intervals (the Holocene/MIC 1 and MIC 5e). We link these variations to changes in Northern Component Water (NCW). ?? 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Building Stories about Sea Level Rise through Interactive Visualizations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stephens, S. H.; DeLorme, D. E.; Hagen, S. C.

    2013-12-01

    Digital media provide storytellers with dynamic new tools for communicating about scientific issues via interactive narrative visualizations. While traditional storytelling uses plot, characterization, and point of view to engage audiences with underlying themes and messages, interactive visualizations can be described as 'narrative builders' that promote insight through the process of discovery (Dove, G. & Jones, S. 2012, Proc. IHCI 2012). Narrative visualizations are used in online journalism to tell complex stories that allow readers to select aspects of datasets to explore and construct alternative interpretations of information (Segel, E. & Heer, J. 2010, IEEE Trans. Vis. Comp. Graph.16, 1139), thus enabling them to participate in the story-building process. Nevertheless, narrative visualizations also incorporate author-selected narrative elements that help guide and constrain the overall themes and messaging of the visualization (Hullman, J. & Diakopoulos, N. 2011, IEEE Trans. Vis. Comp. Graph. 17, 2231). One specific type of interactive narrative visualization that is used for science communication is the sea level rise (SLR) viewer. SLR viewers generally consist of a base map, upon which projections of sea level rise scenarios can be layered, and various controls for changing the viewpoint and scenario parameters. They are used to communicate the results of scientific modeling and help readers visualize the potential impacts of SLR on the coastal zone. Readers can use SLR viewers to construct personal narratives of the effects of SLR under different scenarios in locations that are important to them, thus extending the potential reach and impact of scientific research. With careful selection of narrative elements that guide reader interpretation, the communicative aspects of these visualizations may be made more effective. This presentation reports the results of a content analysis of a subset of existing SLR viewers selected in order to comprehensively

  1. Sea level history in Beringia during the past 250,000 years

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hopkins, D.M.

    1973-01-01

    This paper attempts to relate current knowledge of sea-level history in Beringia to the Broecker-van Donk "Termination" concept of climatic and sea-level history. The Einahnuhtan transgression is thought to represent Termination III, which according to Broecker and van Donk, took place about 225,000 y.a. The Kotzebuan transgression is thought to represent a positive fluctuation that modulated the generally falling sea level during the ensuing 100,000 yr. Sea level probably fell to about -135 m in the Bering Sea area during the maximum phase of the penultimate glaciation. The two Pelukian shorelines probably represent Termination II (about 125,000 yr BP in the Broecker-van Donk chronology) and one of the two positive fluctuations that modulated the generally falling sea level of early Wisconsinan time, about 105,000 and 80,000 y.a. according to Broecker and van Donk. Another positive modulation brought sea level to at least -20 m, about 30,000 y.a. Sea level evidently fell to between -90 and -100 m during the late Wisconsinan regression, but a substantial part of the outer Bering shelf remained submerged. Submerged shoreline features at -38m, -30 m, -24 to -20 m, and -12 to -10 m represent stillstands or slight regressions that modulated Termination I, the late Wisconsinan, and early Holocene recovery of sea level. ?? 1973.

  2. A fractal analysis of quaternary, Cenozoic-Mesozoic, and Late Pennsylvanian sea level changes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hsui, Albert T.; Rust, Kelly A.; Klein, George D.

    1993-01-01

    Sea level changes are related to both climatic variations and tectonic movements. The fractal dimensions of several sea level curves were compared to a modern climatic fractal dimension of 1.26 established for annual precipitation records. A similar fractal dimension (1.22) based on delta(O-18/O-16) in deep-sea sediments has been suggested to characterize climatic change during the past 2 m.y. Our analysis indicates that sea level changes over the past 150,000 to 250,000 years also exhibit comparable fractal dimensions. Sea level changes for periods longer than about 30 m.y. are found to produce fractal dimensions closer to unity and Missourian (Late Pennsylvanian) sea level changes yield a fractal dimension of 1.41. The fact that these sea level curves all possess fractal dimensions less than 1.5 indicates that sea level changes exhibit nonperiodic, long-run persistence. The different fractal dimensions calculated for the various time periods could be the result of a characteristic overprinting of the sediment recored by prevailing processes during deposition. For example, during the Quaternary, glacio-eustatic sea level changes correlate well with the present climatic signature. During the Missourian, however, mechanisms such as plate reorganization may have dominated, resulting in a significantly different fractal dimension.

  3. Modelling the increased frequency of extreme sea levels in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta due to sea level rise and other effects of climate change.

    PubMed

    Kay, S; Caesar, J; Wolf, J; Bricheno, L; Nicholls, R J; Saiful Islam, A K M; Haque, A; Pardaens, A; Lowe, J A

    2015-07-01

    Coastal flooding due to storm surge and high tides is a serious risk for inhabitants of the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) delta, as much of the land is close to sea level. Climate change could lead to large areas of land being subject to increased flooding, salinization and ultimate abandonment in West Bengal, India, and Bangladesh. IPCC 5th assessment modelling of sea level rise and estimates of subsidence rates from the EU IMPACT2C project suggest that sea level in the GBM delta region may rise by 0.63 to 0.88 m by 2090, with some studies suggesting this could be up to 0.5 m higher if potential substantial melting of the West Antarctic ice sheet is included. These sea level rise scenarios lead to increased frequency of high water coastal events. Any effect of climate change on the frequency and severity of storms can also have an effect on extreme sea levels. A shelf-sea model of the Bay of Bengal has been used to investigate how the combined effect of sea level rise and changes in other environmental conditions under climate change may alter the frequency of extreme sea level events for the period 1971 to 2099. The model was forced using atmospheric and oceanic boundary conditions derived from climate model projections and the future scenario increase in sea level was applied at its ocean boundary. The model results show an increased likelihood of extreme sea level events through the 21st century, with the frequency of events increasing greatly in the second half of the century: water levels that occurred at decadal time intervals under present-day model conditions occurred in most years by the middle of the 21st century and 3-15 times per year by 2100. The heights of the most extreme events tend to increase more in the first half of the century than the second. The modelled scenarios provide a case study of how sea level rise and other effects of climate change may combine to produce a greatly increased threat to life and property in the GBM delta by the end

  4. Sea level and turbidity controls on mangrove soil surface elevation change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lovelock, Catherine E.; Fernanda Adame, Maria; Bennion, Vicki; Hayes, Matthew; Reef, Ruth; Santini, Nadia; Cahoon, Donald R.

    2015-01-01

    Increases in sea level are a threat to seaward fringing mangrove forests if levels of inundation exceed the physiological tolerance of the trees; however, tidal wetlands can keep pace with sea level rise if soil surface elevations can increase at the same pace as sea level rise. Sediment accretion on the soil surface and belowground production of roots are proposed to increase with increasing sea level, enabling intertidal habitats to maintain their position relative to mean sea level, but there are few tests of these predictions in mangrove forests. Here we used variation in sea level and the availability of sediments caused by seasonal and inter-annual variation in the intensity of La Nina-El Nino to assess the effects of increasing sea level on surface elevation gains and contributing processes (accretion on the surface, subsidence and root growth) in mangrove forests. We found that soil surface elevation increased with mean sea level (which varied over 250 mm during the study) and with turbidity at sites where fine sediment in the water column is abundant. In contrast, where sediments were sandy, rates of surface elevation gain were high, but not significantly related to variation in turbidity, and were likely to be influenced by other factors that deliver sand to the mangrove forest. Root growth was not linked to soil surface elevation gains, although it was associated with reduced shallow subsidence, and therefore may contribute to the capacity of mangroves to keep pace with sea level rise. Our results indicate both surface (sedimentation) and subsurface (root growth) processes can influence mangrove capacity to keep pace with sea level rise within the same geographic location, and that current models of tidal marsh responses to sea level rise capture the major feature of the response of mangroves where fine, but not coarse, sediments are abundant.

  5. Simulations of Sea Level Rise Effects on Complex Coastal Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Niedoroda, A. W.; Ye, M.; Saha, B.; Donoghue, J. F.; Reed, C. W.

    2009-12-01

    It is now established that complex coastal systems with elements such as beaches, inlets, bays, and rivers adjust their morphologies according to time-varying balances in between the processes that control the exchange of sediment. Accelerated sea level rise introduces a major perturbation into the sediment-sharing systems. A modeling framework based on a new SL-PR model which is an advanced version of the aggregate-scale CST Model and the event-scale CMS-2D and CMS-Wave combination have been used to simulate the recent evolution of a portion of the Florida panhandle coast. This combination of models provides a method to evaluate coefficients in the aggregate-scale model that were previously treated as fitted parameters. That is, by carrying out simulations of a complex coastal system with runs of the event-scale model representing more than a year it is now possible to directly relate the coefficients in the large-scale SL-PR model to measureable physical parameters in the current and wave fields. This cross-scale modeling procedure has been used to simulate the shoreline evolution at the Santa Rosa Island, a long barrier which houses significant military infrastructure at the north Gulf Coast. The model has been used to simulate 137 years of measured shoreline change and to extend these to predictions of future rates of shoreline migration.

  6. Indo-Pacific sea level variability at multidecadal time scales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Merrifield, M. A.; Thompson, P. R.

    2016-12-01

    Long tide gauge and atmospheric pressure measurements are used to infer multidecadal fluctuations in trade wind forcing and the associated Indo-Pacific sea level response along coastal and equatorial waveguides. The trade wind variations are marked by a weakening beginning with the late 1970s climate shift and a subsequent return to mean conditions since the early 1990s. These fluctuations covary with multidecadal wind changes at mid-latitudes, as measured by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation or the North Pacific indices; however, the mid-latitude multidecadal variations prior to 1970 or noticeably absent in the inferred trade wind record. The different behavior of tropical and mid-latitude winds support the notion that multidecadal climate variations in the Pacific result from a combination of processes and not a single coherent mode spanning the basin. In particular, the two-decade long satellite altimeter record represents a period of apparent connection between the two regions that was not exhibited earlier in the century.

  7. Oyster reefs can outpace sea-level rise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rodriguez, Antonio B.; Fodrie, F. Joel; Ridge, Justin T.; Lindquist, Niels L.; Theuerkauf, Ethan J.; Coleman, Sara E.; Grabowski, Jonathan H.; Brodeur, Michelle C.; Gittman, Rachel K.; Keller, Danielle A.; Kenworthy, Matthew D.

    2014-06-01

    In the high-salinity seaward portions of estuaries, oysters seek refuge from predation, competition and disease in intertidal areas, but this sanctuary will be lost if vertical reef accretion cannot keep pace with sea-level rise (SLR). Oyster-reef abundance has already declined ~85% globally over the past 100 years, mainly from over harvesting, making any additional losses due to SLR cause for concern. Before any assessment of reef response to accelerated SLR can be made, direct measures of reef growth are necessary. Here, we present direct measurements of intertidal oyster-reef growth from cores and terrestrial lidar-derived digital elevation models. On the basis of our measurements collected within a mid-Atlantic estuary over a 15-year period, we developed a globally testable empirical model of intertidal oyster-reef accretion. We show that previous estimates of vertical reef growth, based on radiocarbon dates and bathymetric maps, may be greater than one order of magnitude too slow. The intertidal reefs we studied should be able to keep up with any future accelerated rate of SLR (ref. ) and may even benefit from the additional subaqueous space allowing extended vertical accretion.

  8. The complex reality of sea-level rise in an atoll nation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Donner, S. D.

    2012-12-01

    Sea-level rise famously poses an existential threat to island nations like Kiribati, Tuvalu and the Maldives. Yet as the global mean sea-level rises, the response of any one location at any given time will depend on the natural variability in regional sea-level and other impact of local human activities on coastal processes. As with climate warming, the state of an individual shoreline or the extent of flooding on a given day is not proof of a sea-level trend, nor is a global sea-level trend a good predictor of individual flooding or erosion events. Failure to consider the effect of natural variability and local human activity on coastal processes often leads to misattribution of flooding events and even some long-term shoreline changes to global sea level rise. Moreover, unverified attribution of individual events or changes to specific islets to sea level rise can inflame or invite scepticism of the strong scientific evidence for an accelerating increase in the global sea level due to the impacts of human activity on the climate system. This is particularly important in developing nations like Kiribati, which are depending on international financial support to adapt to rising sea levels. In this presentation, I use gauge data and examples from seven years of field work in Tarawa Atoll, the densely populated capital of Kiribati, to examine the complexity of local sea level and shoreline change in one of the world's most vulnerable countries. First, I discuss how the combination of El Nino-driven variability in sea-level and the astronomical tidal cycle leads to flooding and erosion events which can be mistaken for evidence of sea-level rise. Second, I show that human modification to shorelines has redirected sediment supply, leading, in some cases, to expansion of islets despite rising sea levels. Taken together, the analysis demonstrates the challenge of attributing particular coastal events to global mean sea-level rise and the impact on decision-making. The

  9. Sea level budget in the Arctic during the satellite altimetry era

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carret, Alice; Cazenave, Anny; Meyssignac, Benoît; Prandi, Pierre; Ablain, Michael; Andersen, Ole; Blazquez, Alejandro

    2016-04-01

    Studying sea level variations in the Arctic region is challenging because of data scarcity. Here we present results of the sea level budget in the Arctic (up to 82°N) during the altimetry era. We first investigate closure of the sea level budget since 2002 using altimetry data from Envisat and Cryosat for estimating sea level, temperature and salinity data from the ORAP5 reanalysis and GRACE space gravimetry to estimate the steric and mass components. Two altimetry sea level data sets are considered (from DTU and CLS), based on Envisat waveforms retracking. Regional sea level trends seen in the altimetric map, in particular over the Beaufort Gyre and along the eastern coast of Greenland are of steric origin. However, in terms of regional average, the steric component contributes very little to the observed sea level trend, suggesting a dominant mass contribution in the Arctic region. This is confirmed by GRACE-based ocean mass time series that agree very well with the altimetry-based sea level time series. Direct estimate of the mass component is not possible prior to GRACE. Thus we estimated the mass contribution over the whole altimetry era from the difference between altimetry-based sea level and the ORAP5 steric component. Finally we compared altimetry-based coastal sea level with tide gauge records available along Norwegian, Greenland and Siberian coastlines and investigated whether the Arctic Oscillation that was the main driver of coastal sea level in the Arctic during the past decades still plays a dominant role or if other factors (e.g., of anthropogenic origin) become detectable.

  10. Generalized Cauchy model of sea level fluctuations with long-range dependence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Ming; Li, Jia-Yue

    2017-10-01

    This article suggests the contributions with two highlights. One is to propose a novel model of sea level fluctuations (sea level for short), which is called the generalized Cauchy (GC) process. It provides a new outlook for the description of local and global behaviors of sea level from a view of fractal in that the fractal dimension D that measures the local behavior of sea level and the Hurst parameter H which characterizes the global behavior of sea level are independent of each other. The other is to show that sea level appears multi-fractal in both spatial and time. Such a meaning of multi-fractal is new in the sense that a pair of fractal parameters (D, H) of sea level is varying with measurement sites and time. This research exhibits that the ranges of D and H of sea level, in general, are 1 ≤ D < 2 and 0 . 5 < H < 1, respectively but D is independent of H. With respect to the global behavior of sea level, we shall show that H > 0 . 96 for all data records at all measurement sites, implying that strong LRD may be a general phenomenon of sea level. On the other side, regarding with the local behavior, we will reveal that there appears D = 1 or D ≈ 1 for data records at a few stations and at some time, but D > 0 . 96 at most stations and at most time, meaning that sea level may appear highly local irregularity more frequently than weak local one.

  11. The sea-level fingerprints of ice-sheet collapse during interglacial periods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hay, Carling; Mitrovica, Jerry X.; Gomez, Natalya; Creveling, Jessica R.; Austermann, Jacqueline; E. Kopp, Robert

    2014-03-01

    Studies of sea level during previous interglacials provide insight into the stability of polar ice sheets in the face of global climate change. Commonly, these studies correct ancient sea-level highstands for the contaminating effect of isostatic adjustment associated with past ice age cycles, and interpret the residuals as being equivalent to the peak eustatic sea level associated with excess melting, relative to present day, of ancient polar ice sheets. However, the collapse of polar ice sheets produces a distinct geometry, or fingerprint, of sea-level change, which must be accounted for to accurately infer peak eustatic sea level from site-specific residual highstands. To explore this issue, we compute fingerprints associated with the collapse of the Greenland Ice Sheet, West Antarctic Ice Sheet, and marine sectors of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet in order to isolate regions that would have been subject to greater-than-eustatic sea-level change for all three cases. These fingerprints are more robust than those associated with modern melting events, when applied to infer eustatic sea level, because: (1) a significant collapse of polar ice sheets reduces the sensitivity of the computed fingerprints to uncertainties in the geometry of the melt regions; and (2) the sea-level signal associated with the collapse will dominate the signal from steric effects. We evaluate these fingerprints at a suite of sites where sea-level records from interglacial marine isotopes stages (MIS) 5e and 11 have been obtained. Using these results, we demonstrate that previously discrepant estimates of peak eustatic sea level during MIS5e based on sea-level markers in Australia and the Seychelles are brought into closer accord.

  12. Steric and mass-induced Mediterranean sea level trends from 14 years of altimetry data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Criado-Aldeanueva, Francisco; Del Río Vera, Jorge; García-Lafuente, Jesús

    2008-02-01

    Long-term series of almost 14 years of altimetry data (1992-2005) have been analysed along with Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and temperature and salinity profiles to investigate sea level trends over the Mediterranean Sea. Although sea level variations are mainly driven by the steric contribution, the mass-induced component plays some role in modulating its oscillation. A spatially averaged positive trend of 2.1 ± 0.6 mm/year has been observed, but a change in sign in 2001 seems to appear. Steric effects (mainly on thermal origin) account for ˜ 55% of sea level trend. Although Mediterranean Sea is a semi-enclosed basin, this value is comparable to that reported for the global ocean. Sea level rise is particularly important in the Levantine basin south of Crete with values up to 10 ± 1 mm/year. Other areas of sea level rise are localised throughout the Levantine basin and in the Adriatic and Alboran Seas, with more moderate values. Sea level drop areas are localised in the Algerian basin, between the Balearic Islands and the African coasts and, particularly, in the Ionian basin. In this area, negative trends as high as - 10 ± 0.8 mm/year are detected mainly due to the mass-induced contribution, which suggests decadal changes of surface circulation. The inferred sea level trends have been correlated with North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) indices and a low but significant correlation has been detected between sea level in the Levantine and Balearic basins and NAO index.

  13. Projecting Future Sea Level Rise for Water Resources Planning in California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anderson, J.; Kao, K.; Chung, F.

    2008-12-01

    Sea level rise is one of the major concerns for the management of California's water resources. Higher water levels and salinity intrusion into the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta could affect water supplies, water quality, levee stability, and aquatic and terrestrial flora and fauna species and their habitat. Over the 20th century, sea levels near San Francisco Bay increased by over 0.6ft. Some tidal gauge and satellite data indicate that rates of sea level rise are accelerating. Sea levels are expected to continue to rise due to increasing air temperatures causing thermal expansion of the ocean and melting of land-based ice such as ice on Greenland and in southeastern Alaska. For water planners, two related questions are raised on the uncertainty of future sea levels. First, what is the expected sea level at a specific point in time in the future, e.g., what is the expected sea level in 2050? Second, what is the expected point of time in the future when sea levels will exceed a certain height, e.g., what is the expected range of time when the sea level rises by one foot? To address these two types of questions, two factors are considered: (1) long term sea level rise trend, and (2) local extreme sea level fluctuations. A two-step approach will be used to develop sea level rise projection guidelines for decision making that takes both of these factors into account. The first step is developing global sea level rise probability distributions for the long term trends. The second step will extend the approach to take into account the effects of local astronomical tides, changes in atmospheric pressure, wind stress, floods, and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. In this paper, the development of the first step approach is presented. To project the long term sea level rise trend, one option is to extend the current rate of sea level rise into the future. However, since recent data indicate rates of sea level rise are accelerating, methods for estimating sea level rise

  14. Sea-level responses to sediment transport over the last ice age cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ferrier, K.; Mitrovica, J. X.

    2013-12-01

    Sea-level changes over the last ice age cycle were instrumental in steering Earth's topographic evolution. These sea-level variations were driven by changes in surface mass loads, including not only ice and ocean mass variations but also the transfer of rock from eroding mountains to sedimentary deposits. Here we use an extended numerical model of ice age sea level (Dalca et al., 2013) to explore how sediment erosion and deposition affected global sea-level variations over the last ice age cycle. The model takes histories of ice and sediment loads as inputs, and it computes gravitationally self-consistent sea level responses by accounting for the deformational, gravitational, and rotational perturbations in the Earth's viscoelastic form. In these model simulations, we use published estimates of erosion rates, sedimentation rates, and ice sheet variations to constrain sediment and ice loading since the Last Interglacial. We explore sea-level responses to several erosional and depositional scenarios, and in each we quantify the relative contributions of crustal deformation and gravitational perturbation to the computed sea-level change. We also present a case study to illustrate the effects that sediment transfer can have on sea level at the regional scale. In particular, we focus on the region surrounding the Indus River, where fluvial sediment fluxes are among the highest on Earth. Preliminary model results suggest that sediment fluxes from Asia to the ocean are large enough to produce a significant response in sea level along the northeastern coast of the Arabian Sea. Moreover, they suggest that modeled sea-level histories are sensitive to the timing and spatial distribution of sediment erosion and deposition. For instance, sediment deposition along the continental shelf - which may have been the primary site of Indus River sediment deposition during the Holocene - produces a different sea-level response than sediment deposition on the deep-sea Indus Fan, where

  15. Absolute frequency list of the ν3-band transitions of methane at a relative uncertainty level of 10(-11).

    PubMed

    Okubo, Sho; Nakayama, Hirotaka; Iwakuni, Kana; Inaba, Hajime; Sasada, Hiroyuki

    2011-11-21

    We determine the absolute frequencies of 56 rotation-vibration transitions of the ν(3) band of CH(4) from 88.2 to 90.5 THz with a typical uncertainty of 2 kHz corresponding to a relative uncertainty of 2.2 × 10(-11) over an average time of a few hundred seconds. Saturated absorption lines are observed using a difference-frequency-generation source and a cavity-enhanced absorption cell, and the transition frequencies are measured with a fiber-laser-based optical frequency comb referenced to a rubidium atomic clock linked to the international atomic time. The determined value of the P(7) F(2)((2)) line is consistent with the International Committee for Weights and Measures recommendation within the uncertainty. © 2011 Optical Society of America

  16. Probabilistic Estimates of Global Mean Sea Level and its Underlying Processes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hay, C.; Morrow, E.; Kopp, R. E.; Mitrovica, J. X.

    2015-12-01

    Local sea level can vary significantly from the global mean value due to a suite of processes that includes ongoing sea-level changes due to the last ice age, land water storage, ocean circulation changes, and non-uniform sea-level changes that arise when modern-day land ice rapidly melts. Understanding these sources of spatial and temporal variability is critical to estimating past and present sea-level change and projecting future sea-level rise. Using two probabilistic techniques, a multi-model Kalman smoother and Gaussian process regression, we have reanalyzed 20th century tide gauge observations to produce a new estimate of global mean sea level (GMSL). Our methods allow us to extract global information from the sparse tide gauge field by taking advantage of the physics-based and model-derived geometry of the contributing processes. Both methods provide constraints on the sea-level contribution of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). The Kalman smoother tests multiple discrete models of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA), probabilistically computing the most likely GIA model given the observations, while the Gaussian process regression characterizes the prior covariance structure of a suite of GIA models and then uses this structure to estimate the posterior distribution of local rates of GIA-induced sea-level change. We present the two methodologies, the model-derived geometries of the underlying processes, and our new probabilistic estimates of GMSL and GIA.

  17. Sea-level Rise Impacts on Oregon Estuaries: Biology and Hydrology - for posting on website

    EPA Science Inventory

    Estuaries are transitional ecosystems located at the margin of the land and ocean and as a result they are particularly sensitive to sea level rise and other climate drivers. In this presentation, we summarize the potential impacts of sea level rise on key estuarine habitats incl...

  18. Sea-level Rise Impacts on Oregon Estuaries: Biology and Hydrology

    EPA Science Inventory

    Estuaries are transitional ecosystems located at the margin of the land and ocean and as a result they are particularly sensitive to sea level rise and other climate drivers. In this presentation, we summarize the potential impacts of sea level rise on key estuarine habitats inc...

  19. Seasonal Sea-Level Variations in San Francisco Bay in Response to Atmospheric Forcing, 1980

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wang, Jingyuan; Cheng, R.T.; Smith, P.C.

    1997-01-01

    The seasonal response of sea level in San Francisco Bay (SFB) to atmospheric forcing during 1980 is investigated. The relations between sea-level data from the Northern Reach, Central Bay and South Bay, and forcing by local wind stresses, sea level pressure (SLP), runoff and the large scale sea level pressure field are examined in detail. The analyses show that the sea-level elevations and slopes respond to the along-shore wind stress T(V) at most times of the year, and to the cross-shore wind stress T(N) during two transition periods in spring and autumn. River runoff raises the sea-level elevation during winter. It is shown that winter precipitation in the SFB area is mainly attributed to the atmospheric circulation associated with the Alcutian Low, which transports the warm, moist air into the Bay area. A multiple linear regression model is employed to estimate the independent contributions of barometric pressure and wind stress to adjusted sea level. These calculations have a simple dynamical interpretation which confirms the importance of along-shore wind to both sea level and north-south slope within the Bay.

  20. Developing a Learning Progression for Sea Level Rise, a Major Impact of Climate Change

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Breslyn, Wayne; McGinnis, J. Randy; McDonald, R. Christopher; Hestness, Emily

    2016-01-01

    We present research from an investigation on developing a learning progression (LP) for sea level rise (SLR), a major effect of global climate change. We began our research by drafting a hypothetical LP for sea level rise, informed by extant knowledge of the topic in the scientific community, in science education literature, and in science…

  1. Future sea level rise constrained by observations and long-term commitment.

    PubMed

    Mengel, Matthias; Levermann, Anders; Frieler, Katja; Robinson, Alexander; Marzeion, Ben; Winkelmann, Ricarda

    2016-03-08

    Sea level has been steadily rising over the past century, predominantly due to anthropogenic climate change. The rate of sea level rise will keep increasing with continued global warming, and, even if temperatures are stabilized through the phasing out of greenhouse gas emissions, sea level is still expected to rise for centuries. This will affect coastal areas worldwide, and robust projections are needed to assess mitigation options and guide adaptation measures. Here we combine the equilibrium response of the main sea level rise contributions with their last century's observed contribution to constrain projections of future sea level rise. Our model is calibrated to a set of observations for each contribution, and the observational and climate uncertainties are combined to produce uncertainty ranges for 21st century sea level rise. We project anthropogenic sea level rise of 28-56 cm, 37-77 cm, and 57-131 cm in 2100 for the greenhouse gas concentration scenarios RCP26, RCP45, and RCP85, respectively. Our uncertainty ranges for total sea level rise overlap with the process-based estimates of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The "constrained extrapolation" approach generalizes earlier global semiempirical models and may therefore lead to a better understanding of the discrepancies with process-based projections.

  2. Coastal sensitivity to sea level rise : a focus on the mid-atlantic region

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2009-01-15

    The focus of this product is to identify and review the potential impacts of future sea-level rise based on present scientific understanding. To do so, this product evaluates : several aspects of sea-level rise impacts to the natural environment and ...

  3. Coastal barrier stratigraphy for Holocene high-resolution sea-level reconstruction

    PubMed Central

    Costas, Susana; Ferreira, Óscar; Plomaritis, Theocharis A.; Leorri, Eduardo

    2016-01-01

    The uncertainties surrounding present and future sea-level rise have revived the debate around sea-level changes through the deglaciation and mid- to late Holocene, from which arises a need for high-quality reconstructions of regional sea level. Here, we explore the stratigraphy of a sandy barrier to identify the best sea-level indicators and provide a new sea-level reconstruction for the central Portuguese coast over the past 6.5 ka. The selected indicators represent morphological features extracted from coastal barrier stratigraphy, beach berm and dune-beach contact. These features were mapped from high-resolution ground penetrating radar images of the subsurface and transformed into sea-level indicators through comparison with modern analogs and a chronology based on optically stimulated luminescence ages. Our reconstructions document a continuous but slow sea-level rise after 6.5 ka with an accumulated change in elevation of about 2 m. In the context of SW Europe, our results show good agreement with previous studies, including the Tagus isostatic model, with minor discrepancies that demand further improvement of regional models. This work reinforces the potential of barrier indicators to accurately reconstruct high-resolution mid- to late Holocene sea-level changes through simple approaches. PMID:27929122

  4. On the regional characteristics of past and future sea-level change (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Timmermann, A.; McGregor, S.

    2010-12-01

    Global sea-level rise due to the thermal expansion of the warming oceans and freshwater input from melting glaciers and ice-sheets is threatening to inundate low-lying islands and coast-lines worldwide. At present global mean sea level rises at 3.1 ± 0.7 mm/yr with an accelerating tendency. However, the magnitude of recent decadal sea-level trends varies greatly spatially attaining values of up to 10 mm/yr in some areas of the western tropical Pacific. Identifying the causes of recent regional sea-level trends and understanding the patterns of future projected sea-level change is of crucial importance. Using a wind-forced simplified dynamical ocean model, we show that the regional features of recent decadal and multidecadal sea-level trends in the tropical Indo-Pacific can be attributed to changes in the prevailing wind-regimes. Furthermore it is demonstrated that within an ensemble of ten state-of-the art coupled general circulation models, forced by increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations over the next century, wind-induced re-distributions of upper-ocean water play a key role in establishing the spatial characteristics of projected regional sea-level rise. Wind-related changes in near- surface mass and heat convergence near the Solomon Islands, Tuvalu, Kiribati, the Cook Islands and French Polynesia oppose, but can not cancel the regional signal of global mean sea-level rise.

  5. Supercooling capacity increases from sea level to tree line in the Hawaiian tree species Metrosideros polymorpha

    Treesearch

    P.J. Melcher; S. Cordell; T.J. Jones; P.G. Scowcroft; W. Niemczuzra; W. Giambelluca; G. Goldstein

    2000-01-01

    Population‐specific differences in the freezing resistance of Metrosideros polymorpha leaves were studied along an elevational gradient from sea level to tree line (located at ca. 2500 m above sea level) on the east flank of the Mauna Loa volcano in Hawaii. In addition, we also studied 8‐yr‐old saplings grown in a...

  6. Coastal barrier stratigraphy for Holocene high-resolution sea-level reconstruction.

    PubMed

    Costas, Susana; Ferreira, Óscar; Plomaritis, Theocharis A; Leorri, Eduardo

    2016-12-08

    The uncertainties surrounding present and future sea-level rise have revived the debate around sea-level changes through the deglaciation and mid- to late Holocene, from which arises a need for high-quality reconstructions of regional sea level. Here, we explore the stratigraphy of a sandy barrier to identify the best sea-level indicators and provide a new sea-level reconstruction for the central Portuguese coast over the past 6.5 ka. The selected indicators represent morphological features extracted from coastal barrier stratigraphy, beach berm and dune-beach contact. These features were mapped from high-resolution ground penetrating radar images of the subsurface and transformed into sea-level indicators through comparison with modern analogs and a chronology based on optically stimulated luminescence ages. Our reconstructions document a continuous but slow sea-level rise after 6.5 ka with an accumulated change in elevation of about 2 m. In the context of SW Europe, our results show good agreement with previous studies, including the Tagus isostatic model, with minor discrepancies that demand further improvement of regional models. This work reinforces the potential of barrier indicators to accurately reconstruct high-resolution mid- to late Holocene sea-level changes through simple approaches.

  7. Sea-level rise caused by climate change and its implications for society.

    PubMed

    Mimura, Nobuo

    2013-01-01

    Sea-level rise is a major effect of climate change. It has drawn international attention, because higher sea levels in the future would cause serious impacts in various parts of the world. There are questions associated with sea-level rise which science needs to answer. To what extent did climate change contribute to sea-level rise in the past? How much will global mean sea level increase in the future? How serious are the impacts of the anticipated sea-level rise likely to be, and can human society respond to them? This paper aims to answer these questions through a comprehensive review of the relevant literature. First, the present status of observed sea-level rise, analyses of its causes, and future projections are summarized. Then the impacts are examined along with other consequences of climate change, from both global and Japanese perspectives. Finally, responses to adverse impacts will be discussed in order to clarify the implications of the sea-level rise issue for human society.(Communicated by Kiyoshi HORIKAWA, M.J.A.).

  8. Future sea level rise constrained by observations and long-term commitment

    PubMed Central

    Mengel, Matthias; Levermann, Anders; Frieler, Katja; Robinson, Alexander; Marzeion, Ben; Winkelmann, Ricarda

    2016-01-01

    Sea level has been steadily rising over the past century, predominantly due to anthropogenic climate change. The rate of sea level rise will keep increasing with continued global warming, and, even if temperatures are stabilized through the phasing out of greenhouse gas emissions, sea level is still expected to rise for centuries. This will affect coastal areas worldwide, and robust projections are needed to assess mitigation options and guide adaptation measures. Here we combine the equilibrium response of the main sea level rise contributions with their last century's observed contribution to constrain projections of future sea level rise. Our model is calibrated to a set of observations for each contribution, and the observational and climate uncertainties are combined to produce uncertainty ranges for 21st century sea level rise. We project anthropogenic sea level rise of 28–56 cm, 37–77 cm, and 57–131 cm in 2100 for the greenhouse gas concentration scenarios RCP26, RCP45, and RCP85, respectively. Our uncertainty ranges for total sea level rise overlap with the process-based estimates of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The “constrained extrapolation” approach generalizes earlier global semiempirical models and may therefore lead to a better understanding of the discrepancies with process-based projections. PMID:26903648

  9. Sea-level rise caused by climate change and its implications for society

    PubMed Central

    MIMURA, Nobuo

    2013-01-01

    Sea-level rise is a major effect of climate change. It has drawn international attention, because higher sea levels in the future would cause serious impacts in various parts of the world. There are questions associated with sea-level rise which science needs to answer. To what extent did climate change contribute to sea-level rise in the past? How much will global mean sea level increase in the future? How serious are the impacts of the anticipated sea-level rise likely to be, and can human society respond to them? This paper aims to answer these questions through a comprehensive review of the relevant literature. First, the present status of observed sea-level rise, analyses of its causes, and future projections are summarized. Then the impacts are examined along with other consequences of climate change, from both global and Japanese perspectives. Finally, responses to adverse impacts will be discussed in order to clarify the implications of the sea-level rise issue for human society. PMID:23883609

  10. Sea level changes in Sharm Abhur Red Sea Coast of Saudi Arabia, as Revealed from Seismic Stratigraphy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    El-Abd, Yakout; Awad, Morad

    High resolution seismic profiling has been carried out along Sharm Abhur (a tidal creek), north of Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, using a high resolution seismic refraction profiling system. A chronogram illustrating corresponding Holocene relative sea level changes was constructed. Since 16,750 yr. B.P. Sharm Abhur had been subjected to four stages of relative transgressions. The first one started at about 92.5 m below present sea level. A relative stillstand occurred between 12,500-11,000 yr. B.P. about 50 m below present sea level. An anomalous body is observed near the mouth of the Sharm which is believed to be uplifted between 13,250 and 12,500 yr. B.P.

  11. The sleep of elite athletes at sea level and high altitude: a comparison of sea-level natives and high-altitude natives (ISA3600)

    PubMed Central

    Roach, Gregory D; Schmidt, Walter F; Aughey, Robert J; Bourdon, Pitre C; Soria, Rudy; Claros, Jesus C Jimenez; Garvican-Lewis, Laura A; Buchheit, Martin; Simpson, Ben M; Hammond, Kristal; Kley, Marlen; Wachsmuth, Nadine; Gore, Christopher J; Sargent, Charli

    2013-01-01

    Background Altitude exposure causes acute sleep disruption in non-athletes, but little is known about its effects in elite athletes. The aim of this study was to examine the effects of altitude on two groups of elite athletes, that is, sea-level natives and high-altitude natives. Methods Sea-level natives were members of the Australian under-17 soccer team (n=14). High-altitude natives were members of a Bolivian under-20 club team (n=12). Teams participated in an 18-day (19 nights) training camp in Bolivia, with 6 nights at near sea level in Santa Cruz (430 m) and 13 nights at high altitude in La Paz (3600 m). Sleep was assessed on every day/night using activity monitors. Results The Australians’ sleep was shorter, and of poorer quality, on the first night at altitude compared with sea level. Sleep quality returned to normal by the end of the first week at altitude, but sleep quantity had still not stabilised at its normal level after 2 weeks. The quantity and quality of sleep obtained by the Bolivians was similar, or greater, on all nights at altitude compared with sea level. The Australians tended to obtain more sleep than the Bolivians at sea level and altitude, but the quality of the Bolivians’ sleep tended to be better than that of the Australians at altitude. Conclusions Exposure to high altitude causes acute and chronic disruption to the sleep of elite athletes who are sea-level natives, but it does not affect the sleep of elite athletes who are high-altitude natives. PMID:24282197

  12. The sleep of elite athletes at sea level and high altitude: a comparison of sea-level natives and high-altitude natives (ISA3600).

    PubMed

    Roach, Gregory D; Schmidt, Walter F; Aughey, Robert J; Bourdon, Pitre C; Soria, Rudy; Claros, Jesus C Jimenez; Garvican-Lewis, Laura A; Buchheit, Martin; Simpson, Ben M; Hammond, Kristal; Kley, Marlen; Wachsmuth, Nadine; Gore, Christopher J; Sargent, Charli

    2013-12-01

    Altitude exposure causes acute sleep disruption in non-athletes, but little is known about its effects in elite athletes. The aim of this study was to examine the effects of altitude on two groups of elite athletes, that is, sea-level natives and high-altitude natives. Sea-level natives were members of the Australian under-17 soccer team (n=14). High-altitude natives were members of a Bolivian under-20 club team (n=12). Teams participated in an 18-day (19 nights) training camp in Bolivia, with 6 nights at near sea level in Santa Cruz (430 m) and 13 nights at high altitude in La Paz (3600 m). Sleep was assessed on every day/night using activity monitors. The Australians' sleep was shorter, and of poorer quality, on the first night at altitude compared with sea level. Sleep quality returned to normal by the end of the first week at altitude, but sleep quantity had still not stabilised at its normal level after 2 weeks. The quantity and quality of sleep obtained by the Bolivians was similar, or greater, on all nights at altitude compared with sea level. The Australians tended to obtain more sleep than the Bolivians at sea level and altitude, but the quality of the Bolivians' sleep tended to be better than that of the Australians at altitude. Exposure to high altitude causes acute and chronic disruption to the sleep of elite athletes who are sea-level natives, but it does not affect the sleep of elite athletes who are high-altitude natives.

  13. An improved and homogeneous altimeter sea level record from the ESA Climate Change Initiative

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Legeais, Jean-François; Ablain, Michaël; Zawadzki, Lionel; Zuo, Hao; Johannessen, Johnny A.; Scharffenberg, Martin G.; Fenoglio-Marc, Luciana; Joana Fernandes, M.; Baltazar Andersen, Ole; Rudenko, Sergei; Cipollini, Paolo; Quartly, Graham D.; Passaro, Marcello; Cazenave, Anny; Benveniste, Jérôme

    2018-02-01

    Sea level is a very sensitive index of climate change since it integrates the impacts of ocean warming and ice mass loss from glaciers and the ice sheets. Sea level has been listed as an essential climate variable (ECV) by the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS). During the past 25 years, the sea level ECV has been measured from space by different altimetry missions that have provided global and regional observations of sea level variations. As part of the Climate Change Initiative (CCI) program of the European Space Agency (ESA) (established in 2010), the Sea Level project (SL_cci) aimed to provide an accurate and homogeneous long-term satellite-based sea level record. At the end of the first phase of the project (2010-2013), an initial version (v1.1) of the sea level ECV was made available to users (Ablain et al., 2015). During the second phase of the project (2014-2017), improved altimeter standards were selected to produce new sea level products (called SL_cci v2.0) based on nine altimeter missions for the period 1993-2015 (sea_level_cci-1993_2015-v_2.0-201612" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.5270/esa-sea_level_cci-1993_2015-v_2.0-201612; Legeais and the ESA SL_cci team, 2016c). Corresponding orbit solutions, geophysical corrections and altimeter standards used in this v2.0 dataset are described in detail in Quartly et al. (2017). The present paper focuses on the description of the SL_cci v2.0 ECV and associated uncertainty and discusses how it has been validated. Various approaches have been used for the quality assessment such as internal validation, comparisons with sea level records from other groups and with in situ measurements, sea level budget closure analyses and comparisons with model outputs. Compared with the previous version of the sea level ECV, we show that use of improved geophysical corrections, careful bias reduction between missions and inclusion of new altimeter missions lead to improved sea

  14. Limits on the adaptability of coastal marshes to rising sea level

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kirwan, Matthew L.; Guntenspergen, Glenn R.; D'Alpaos, Andrea; Morris, James T.; Mudd, Simon M.; Temmerman, Stijn

    2010-01-01

    Assumptions of a static landscape inspire predictions that about half of the world's coastal wetlands will submerge during this century in response to sea-level acceleration. In contrast, we use simulations from five numerical models to quantify the conditions under which ecogeomorphic feedbacks allow coastal wetlands to adapt to projected changes in sea level. In contrast to previous sea-level assessments, we find that non-linear feedbacks among inundation, plant growth, organic matter accretion, and sediment deposition, allow marshes to survive conservative projections of sea-level rise where suspended sediment concentrations are greater than ~20 mg/L. Under scenarios of more rapid sea-level rise (e.g., those that include ice sheet melting), marshes will likely submerge near the end of the 21st century. Our results emphasize that in areas of rapid geomorphic change, predicting the response of ecosystems to climate change requires consideration of the ability of biological processes to modify their physical environment.

  15. Reassessment of 20th century global mean sea level rise.

    PubMed

    Dangendorf, Sönke; Marcos, Marta; Wöppelmann, Guy; Conrad, Clinton P; Frederikse, Thomas; Riva, Riccardo

    2017-06-06

    The rate at which global mean sea level (GMSL) rose during the 20th century is uncertain, with little consensus between various reconstructions that indicate rates of rise ranging from 1.3 to 2 mm⋅y -1 Here we present a 20th-century GMSL reconstruction computed using an area-weighting technique for averaging tide gauge records that both incorporates up-to-date observations of vertical land motion (VLM) and corrections for local geoid changes resulting from ice melting and terrestrial freshwater storage and allows for the identification of possible differences compared with earlier attempts. Our reconstructed GMSL trend of 1.1 ± 0.3 mm⋅y -1 (1σ) before 1990 falls below previous estimates, whereas our estimate of 3.1 ± 1.4 mm⋅y -1 from 1993 to 2012 is consistent with independent estimates from satellite altimetry, leading to overall acceleration larger than previously suggested. This feature is geographically dominated by the Indian Ocean-Southern Pacific region, marking a transition from lower-than-average rates before 1990 toward unprecedented high rates in recent decades. We demonstrate that VLM corrections, area weighting, and our use of a common reference datum for tide gauges may explain the lower rates compared with earlier GMSL estimates in approximately equal proportion. The trends and multidecadal variability of our GMSL curve also compare well to the sum of individual contributions obtained from historical outputs of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. This, in turn, increases our confidence in process-based projections presented in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

  16. Reassessment of 20th century global mean sea level rise

    PubMed Central

    Dangendorf, Sönke; Marcos, Marta; Wöppelmann, Guy; Conrad, Clinton P.; Frederikse, Thomas; Riva, Riccardo

    2017-01-01

    The rate at which global mean sea level (GMSL) rose during the 20th century is uncertain, with little consensus between various reconstructions that indicate rates of rise ranging from 1.3 to 2 mm⋅y−1. Here we present a 20th-century GMSL reconstruction computed using an area-weighting technique for averaging tide gauge records that both incorporates up-to-date observations of vertical land motion (VLM) and corrections for local geoid changes resulting from ice melting and terrestrial freshwater storage and allows for the identification of possible differences compared with earlier attempts. Our reconstructed GMSL trend of 1.1 ± 0.3 mm⋅y−1 (1σ) before 1990 falls below previous estimates, whereas our estimate of 3.1 ± 1.4 mm⋅y−1 from 1993 to 2012 is consistent with independent estimates from satellite altimetry, leading to overall acceleration larger than previously suggested. This feature is geographically dominated by the Indian Ocean–Southern Pacific region, marking a transition from lower-than-average rates before 1990 toward unprecedented high rates in recent decades. We demonstrate that VLM corrections, area weighting, and our use of a common reference datum for tide gauges may explain the lower rates compared with earlier GMSL estimates in approximately equal proportion. The trends and multidecadal variability of our GMSL curve also compare well to the sum of individual contributions obtained from historical outputs of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. This, in turn, increases our confidence in process-based projections presented in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. PMID:28533403

  17. Using environmental heterogeneity to plan for sea-level rise.

    PubMed

    Hunter, Elizabeth A; Nibbelink, Nathan P

    2017-12-01

    Environmental heterogeneity is increasingly being used to select conservation areas that will provide for future biodiversity under a variety of climate scenarios. This approach, termed conserving nature's stage (CNS), assumes environmental features respond to climate change more slowly than biological communities, but will CNS be effective if the stage were to change as rapidly as the climate? We tested the effectiveness of using CNS to select sites in salt marshes for conservation in coastal Georgia (U.S.A.), where environmental features will change rapidly as sea level rises. We calculated species diversity based on distributions of 7 bird species with a variety of niches in Georgia salt marshes. Environmental heterogeneity was assessed across six landscape gradients (e.g., elevation, salinity, and patch area). We used 2 approaches to select sites with high environmental heterogeneity: site complementarity (environmental diversity [ED]) and local environmental heterogeneity (environmental richness [ER]). Sites selected based on ER predicted present-day species diversity better than randomly selected sites (up to an 8.1% improvement), were resilient to areal loss from SLR (1.0% average areal loss by 2050 compared with 0.9% loss of randomly selected sites), and provided habitat to a threatened species (0.63 average occupancy compared with 0.6 average occupancy of randomly selected sites). Sites selected based on ED predicted species diversity no better or worse than random and were not resilient to SLR (2.9% average areal loss by 2050). Despite the discrepancy between the 2 approaches, CNS is a viable strategy for conservation site selection in salt marshes because the ER approach was successful. It has potential for application in other coastal areas where SLR will affect environmental features, but its performance may depend on the magnitude of geological changes caused by SLR. Our results indicate that conservation planners that had heretofore excluded low

  18. A new multidimensional population health indicator for policy makers: absolute level, inequality and spatial clustering - an empirical application using global sub-national infant mortality data.

    PubMed

    Sartorius, Benn K D; Sartorius, Kurt

    2014-11-01

    The need for a multidimensional measure of population health that accounts for its distribution remains a central problem to guide the allocation of limited resources. Absolute proxy measures, like the infant mortality rate (IMR), are limited because they ignore inequality and spatial clustering. We propose a novel, three-part, multidimensional mortality indicator that can be used as the first step to differentiate interventions in a region or country. The three-part indicator (MortalityABC index) combines absolute mortality rate, the Theil Index to calculate mortality inequality and the Getis-Ord G statistic to determine the degree of spatial clustering. The analysis utilises global sub-national IMR data to empirically illustrate the proposed indicator. The three-part indicator is mapped globally to display regional/country variation and further highlight its potential application. Developing countries (e.g. in sub-Saharan Africa) display high levels of absolute mortality as well as variable mortality inequality with evidence of spatial clustering within certain sub-national units ("hotspots"). Although greater inequality is observed outside developed regions, high mortality inequality and spatial clustering are common in both developed and developing countries. Significant positive correlation was observed between the degree of spatial clustering and absolute mortality. The proposed multidimensional indicator should prove useful for spatial allocation of healthcare resources within a country, because it can prompt a wide range of policy options and prioritise high-risk areas. The new indicator demonstrates the inadequacy of IMR as a single measure of population health, and it can also be adapted to lower administrative levels within a country and other population health measures.

  19. IInvestigations of space-time variability of the sea level in the Barents Sea and the White Sea by satellite altimetry data and results of hydrodynamic modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lebedev, S. A.; Zilberstein, O. I.; Popov, S. K.; Tikhonova, O. V.

    2003-04-01

    The problem of retrieving of the sea level anomalies in the Barents and White Seas from satellite can be considered as two different problems. The first one is to calculate the anomalies of sea level along the trek taking into account all amendments including tidal heights. The second one is to obtain of fields of the sea level anomalies on the grid over one cycle of the exact repeat altimetry mission. Experience results show that there is preferable to use the regional tidal model for calculating tidal heights. To construct of the anomalies fields of the sea level during the exact repeat mission (cycle 35 days for ERS-1 and ERS-2), when a density of the coverage of the area of water of the Barents and White Seas by satellite measurements achieves maximum. It is necessary to solve the problem of the error minimum. This error is based by the temporal difference of the measurements over one cycle and by the specific of the hydrodynamic regime of the both seas (tidal, storm surge variations, tidal currents). To solve this problem it is assumed to use the results of the hydrodynamic modeling. The error minimum is preformed by the regression of the model results and satellite measurements. As a version it is considered the possibility of the utilizing of the neuronet obtained by the model results to construct maps of the sea level anomalies. The comparison of the model results and the calculation of the satellite altimetry variability of the sea level of Barents and White Seas shows a good coincidence between them. The satellite altimetry data of ERS-1/2 and TOPEX/POSEIDON of Ocean Altimeter Pathfinder Project (NASA/GSFC) has been used in this study. Results of the regional tidal model computations and three dimensional baroclinic model created in the Hydrometeocenter have been used as well. This study also exploited the atmosphere date of the Project REANALYSIS. The research was undertaken with partial support from the Russian Basic Research Foundation (Project No. 01-07-90106).

  20. The land-ice contribution to 21st-century dynamic sea level rise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Howard, T.; Ridley, J.; Pardaens, A. K.; Hurkmans, R. T. W. L.; Payne, A. J.; Giesen, R. H.; Lowe, J. A.; Bamber, J. L.; Edwards, T. L.; Oerlemans, J.

    2014-06-01

    Climate change has the potential to influence global mean sea level through a number of processes including (but not limited to) thermal expansion of the oceans and enhanced land ice melt. In addition to their contribution to global mean sea level change, these two processes (among others) lead to local departures from the global mean sea level change, through a number of mechanisms including the effect on spatial variations in the change of water density and transport, usually termed dynamic sea level changes. In this study, we focus on the component of dynamic sea level change that might be given by additional freshwater inflow to the ocean under scenarios of 21st-century land-based ice melt. We present regional patterns of dynamic sea level change given by a global-coupled atmosphere-ocean climate model forced by spatially and temporally varying projected ice-melt fluxes from three sources: the Antarctic ice sheet, the Greenland Ice Sheet and small glaciers and ice caps. The largest ice melt flux we consider is equivalent to almost 0.7 m of global mean sea level rise over the 21st century. The temporal evolution of the dynamic sea level changes, in the presence of considerable variations in the ice melt flux, is also analysed. We find that the dynamic sea level change associated with the ice melt is small, with the largest changes occurring in the North Atlantic amounting to 3 cm above the global mean rise. Furthermore, the dynamic sea level change associated with the ice melt is similar regardless of whether the simulated ice fluxes are applied to a simulation with fixed CO2 or under a business-as-usual greenhouse gas warming scenario of increasing CO2.

  1. Observed and simulated changes in Antarctic sea ice and sea level pressure: anthropogenic or natural variability? (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hobbs, W. R.

    2013-12-01

    Statistically-significant changes in Antarctic sea ice cover and the overlying atmosphere have been observed over the last 30 years, but there is an open question of whether these changes are due to multi-decadal natural variability or an anthropogenically-forced response. A number of recent papers have shown that the slight increase in total sea ice cover is within the bounds of internal variability exhibited by coupled climate models in the CMIP5 suite. Modelled changes for the same time period generally show a decrease, but again with a magnitude that is within internal variability. However, in contrast to the Arctic, sea ice tends in the Antarctic are spatially highly heterogeneous, and consideration of the total ice cover may mask important regional signals. In this work, a robust ';fingerprinting' approach is used to show that the observed spatial pattern of sea ice trends is in fact outside simulated natural variability in west Antarctic, and furthermore that the CMIP5 models consistently show decreased ice cover in the Ross and Weddell Seas, sectors which in fact have an observed increase in cover. As a first step towards understanding the disagreement between models and observations, modelled sea level pressure trends are analysed using and optimal fingerprinting approach, to identify whether atmospheric deficiencies in the models can explain the model-observation discrepancy.

  2. The distribution and utility of sea-level indicators in Eurasian sub-Arctic salt marshes (White Sea, Russia).

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nikitina, Daria; Kemp, Andrew; Horton, Benjamin; Van, Christopher; Potapova, Marina; Culver, Stephen; Repkina, Tatyana; Hill, David

    2017-04-01

    We investigated the utility of foraminifera, diatoms and bulk-sediment geochemistry (δ13C and parameters measured by RockEval pyrolysis) as sea-level indicators in Eurasian sub-Arctic salt marshes. At three salt marshes in Dvina Bay (White Sea, Russia), we collected surface sediment samples along transects sequentially crossing sub-tidal, tidal-flat, salt-marsh and Taiga forest environments. Foraminifera formed bipartite assemblages, where elevations below mean high higher water (MHHW) were dominated by Miliammina spp. and elevations between MHHW and the highest occurrence of foraminifera were dominated by Jadammina macrescens and Balticammina pseudomacrescens. Both assemblages existed on all three transects and we conclude that foraminifera are sea-level indicators in Eurasian sub-Arctic salt marshes. Five, high-diversity groups of diatoms were identified and they displayed geographic variability among the study sites (<15 km apart). RockEval pyrolysis and δ13C measurements recognized two groups (clastic-dominated environments below MHHW and organic-rich environments above MHHW). Since one group included sub-tidal elevations and the other supra-tidal elevations, we conclude that the measured geochemical parameters do not meet the criteria for being stand-alone sea-level indicators. Core JT2012 captured a regressive sediment sequence of clastic, tidal-flat sediment overlain by salt-marsh organic silt and freshwater peat. The salt-marsh sediment accumulated at 2804 ± 52 years BP years before present and preserved foraminifera (J. macrescens and B. pseudomacrescens) with a high degree of analogy to modern assemblages indicating that relative sea level was 2.60 ± 0.47 m above present at this time. Diatoms confirm that marine influence decreased through time, but the lack of analogy between modern and core assemblages limits their utility as sea-level indicators in this setting.

  3. New Approach to Sea Level Monitoring Tested at Shemya, Alaska

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Urban, G. W.; Medbery, A. H.; Burgy, M. C.

    2003-12-01

    Due to the prohibitive installation cost to replace a storm damaged stilling well type tide gauge at Earickson Air Force Station on Shemya Island, Alaska, an alternative sea-level gauge was sought by the West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (WCATWC). An Omart-Vega radar system was chosen as the alternative, since it had low power needs, did not require a stilling well and its design included observation of rough surface liquids. The Omart-Vega radar system works by emitting a 5 gHz radar wave which reflects off the water surface and then back to the unit at a specified rate. This information is then telemetered directly to a computer which records the sample. Although the cost of the Vega system (3500USD) was similar to that of the stilling well unit (2500USD), the comparison of the installation costs of the two different units was an issue. To install the stilling well system, two certified under-water welding divers were required at a cost of 40K-USD or more. In comparison, the installation of the Vega system simply required an arm constructed so as to hang and support the Vega unit off the pier at Shemya. This arm assembly would also house the unit to protect it from surf and weather. The arm was designed in-house and built by a local metal contractor for less than 500USD. This portable unit was sent to Shemya via C-130 aircraft. The arm assembly and housed radar tide gauge was installed by one person. The circuitry to run the Vega was developed and tested at the WCATWC. Software was designed and tested there as well, although the software was written by Omart at no cost to the Warning Center. The circuitry allows for direct remote reconfiguration from Palmer to the radar system. The Vega is accessed by software directly from the WCATWC computer to sample the water level at numerous settable sample rates, which include one second, five second, fifteen second, and thirty second. After nearly one year of operation at Earickson, which included many major

  4. An updated 26-year (1991-2017) sea level record from the Arctic Ocean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kildegaard Rose, Stine; Baltazar Andersen, Ole; Passaro, Marcello; Benveniste, Jerome

    2017-04-01

    In recent years, there has been a large focus of the Arctic due the rapid changes of the region. The sea level of the Arctic Ocean is an important climate indicator. The Arctic sea ice is decreasing and has since 1997 experienced a steepening in the decrease. The Arctic sea level determination is challenging due to the seasonal to permanent sea ice cover, the lack of regional coverage of satellites, the satellite instruments ability to measure ice, insufficient geophysical models, residual orbit errors, challenging retracking of satellite altimeter data. We present the DTU/TUM 26-year sea level record based on satellite altimetry data in the Arctic Ocean from the ERS1 (1991) to CryoSat-2 (present) satellites. The sea level record is compared with several tide gauges and other available partial sea level records contributing to the ESA CCI Sea level initiative. We use updated geophysical corrections and a combination of altimeter data: REAPER (ERS1), ALES+ retracker (ERS2, Envisat), combined Rads and DTUs in-house retracker LARS (CryoSat-2). The ALES+ is an upgraded version of the Adaptive Leading Edge Subwaveform Retracker that has been developed to improve data quality and quantity in the coastal ocean, without degrading the results in the open ocean. ALES+ aims at retracking peaky waveforms typical of lead reflections without modifying the fitting model used in the open ocean.

  5. Occurrence of Quaternary turbidite deposits in the central South China Sea: Response to global sea-level changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Z.; Zhang, X.; Christophe, C.; Peleo-Alampay, A.; Guballa, J. D. S.; Li, P.; Liu, C.

    2016-12-01

    Terrigenous turbidite layers frequently occur at the upper 150-m-thick sedimentary sequence of Hole U1431D (15º22.54'N, 117 º00.00'E, 4240.5 m water depth), International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) Expedition 349, near the relict spreading ridge in the central South China Sea. This study implies visual statistics combined with grain size, clay mineralogy, and Nd-Sr isotope analyses to reconstruct the occurrence of these turbidite layers. The age-model of combined calcareous nannofossils, planktonic foraminifers, and paleomagnetism suggests that the sedimentary sequence spans the entire Quaternary with an age of 2.6 Ma at the depth of 150 mcd below the seafloor. Our results show that the turbidite deposits are dominated by silt with sandy silt and silty clay, poorly sorted, and grading upward with erosion base. The occurrence of turbidite layers are highly frequent with about 3.06 layers per meter and an average thickness of 14.64 cm per layer above 96 mcd ( 1.6 Ma), while the lower part turbudite layers are less frequently developed with 1.16 layers per meter and an average thickness of 5.67 cm. Provenance analysis indicates that Taiwan, about 900 km northward to the studied site, is the major source for these terrigenous sediments, implying the long run-out turbidity current activity over the very low-gradient deep-sea plain of the South China Sea. The frequency of the turbidite layer occurrence is well correlated to the Quaternary global sea-level change history, with the high frequency occurred during the lower sea-level stands. Our study suggests that the glacial-interglacial-scale sea-level change has controlled terrigenous sediment input from Taiwan and the northern shelf of the South China Sea during the Quaternary. The increase of turbidite layer frequency since 1.6 Ma in the central South China Sea could be triggered by the enlarged amplitude of sea-level change.

  6. Relationship between sea level and climate forcing by CO2 on geological timescales

    PubMed Central

    Foster, Gavin L.; Rohling, Eelco J.

    2013-01-01

    On 103- to 106-year timescales, global sea level is determined largely by the volume of ice stored on land, which in turn largely reflects the thermal state of the Earth system. Here we use observations from five well-studied time slices covering the last 40 My to identify a well-defined and clearly sigmoidal relationship between atmospheric CO2 and sea level on geological (near-equilibrium) timescales. This strongly supports the dominant role of CO2 in determining Earth’s climate on these timescales and suggests that other variables that influence long-term global climate (e.g., topography, ocean circulation) play a secondary role. The relationship between CO2 and sea level we describe portrays the “likely” (68% probability) long-term sea-level response after Earth system adjustment over many centuries. Because it appears largely independent of other boundary condition changes, it also may provide useful long-range predictions of future sea level. For instance, with CO2 stabilized at 400–450 ppm (as required for the frequently quoted “acceptable warming” of 2 °C), or even at AD 2011 levels of 392 ppm, we infer a likely (68% confidence) long-term sea-level rise of more than 9 m above the present. Therefore, our results imply that to avoid significantly elevated sea level in the long term, atmospheric CO2 should be reduced to levels similar to those of preindustrial times. PMID:23292932

  7. Recent Changes in Land Water Storage and its Contribution to Sea Level Variations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wada, Yoshihide; Reager, John T.; Chao, Benjamin F.; Wang, Jida; Lo, Min-Hui; Song, Chunqiao; Li, Yuwen; Gardner, Alex S.

    2017-01-01

    Sea level rise is generally attributed to increased ocean heat content and increased rates glacier and ice melt. However, human transformations of Earth's surface have impacted water exchange between land, atmosphere, and ocean, ultimately affecting global sea level variations. Impoundment of water in reservoirs and artificial lakes has reduced the outflow of water to the sea, while river runoff has increased due to groundwater mining, wetland and endorheic lake storage losses, and deforestation. In addition, climate-driven changes in land water stores can have a large impact on global sea level variations over decadal timescales. Here, we review each component of negative and positive land water contribution separately in order to highlight and understand recent changes in land water contribution to sea level variations.

  8. Recent Changes in Land Water Storage and Its Contribution to Sea Level Variations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wada, Yoshihide; Reager, John T.; Chao, Benjamin F.; Wang, Jida; Lo, Min-Hui; Song, Chunqiao; Li, Yuwen; Gardner, Alex S.

    2016-01-01

    Sea level rise is generally attributed to increased ocean heat content and increased rates glacier and ice melt. However, human transformations of Earth's surface have impacted water exchange between land, atmosphere, and ocean, ultimately affecting global sea level variations. Impoundment of water in reservoirs and artificial lakes has reduced the outflow of water to the sea, while river runoff has increased due to groundwater mining, wetland and endorheic lake storage losses, and deforestation. In addition, climate-driven changes in land water stores can have a large impact on global sea level variations over decadal timescales. Here, we review each component of negative and positive land water contribution separately in order to highlight and understand recent changes in land water contribution to sea level variations.

  9. Integrated analysis of PALSAR/Radarsat-1 InSAR and ENVISAT altimeter data for mapping of absolute water level changes in Louisiana wetlands

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kim, J.-W.; Lu, Z.; Lee, H.; Shum, C.K.; Swarzenski, C.M.; Doyle, T.W.; Baek, S.-H.

    2009-01-01

    Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) has been used to detect relative water level changes in wetlands. We developed an innovative method to integrate InSAR and satellite radar altimetry for measuring absolute or geocentric water level changes and applied the methodology to remote areas of swamp forest in coastal Louisiana. Coherence analysis of InSAR pairs suggested that the HH polarization is preferred for this type of observation, and polarimetric analysis can help to identify double-bounce backscattering areas in the wetland. ENVISAT radar altimeter-measured 18-Hz (along-track sampling of 417 m) water level data processed with regional stackfile method have been used to provide vertical references for water bodies separated by levees. The high-resolution (~ 40 m) relative water changes measured from ALOS PALSAR L-band and Radarsat-1 C-band InSAR are then integrated with ENVISAT radar altimetry to obtain absolute water level. The resulting water level time series were validated with in situ gauge observations within the swamp forest. We anticipate that this new technique will allow retrospective reconstruction and concurrent monitoring of water conditions and flow dynamics in wetlands, especially those lacking gauge networks.

  10. A Poor Relationship Between Sea Level and Deep-Water Sand Delivery

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harris, Ashley D.; Baumgardner, Sarah E.; Sun, Tao; Granjeon, Didier

    2018-08-01

    The most commonly cited control on delivery of sand to deep water is the rate of relative sea-level fall. The rapid rate of accommodation loss on the shelf causes sedimentation to shift basinward. Field and experimental numerical modeling studies have shown that deep-water sand delivery can occur during any stage of relative sea level position and across a large range of values of rate of relative sea-level change. However, these studies did not investigate the impact of sediment transport efficiency on the relationship between rate of relative sea-level change and deep-water sand delivery rate. We explore this relationship using a deterministic nonlinear diffusion-based numerical stratigraphic forward model. We vary across three orders of magnitude the diffusion coefficient value for marine settings, which controls sediment transport efficiency. We find that the rate of relative sea-level change can explain no more than 1% of the variability in deep-water sand delivery rates, regardless of sediment transport efficiency. Model results show a better correlation with relative sea level, with up to 55% of the variability in deep water sand delivery rates explained. The results presented here are consistent with studies of natural settings which suggest stochastic processes such as avulsion and slope failure, and interactions among such processes, may explain the remaining variance. Relative sea level is a better predictor of deep-water sand delivery than rate of relative sea-level change because it is the sea-level fall itself which promotes sand delivery, not the rate of the fall. We conclude that the poor relationship between sea level and sand delivery is not an artifact of the modeling parameters but is instead due to the inadequacy of relative sea level and the rate of relative sea-level change to fully describe the dimensional space in which depositional systems reside. Subsequently, sea level itself is unable to account for the interaction of multiple processes

  11. GGOS Focus Area 3: Understanding and Forecasting Sea-Level Rise and Variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schöne, Tilo; Shum, Ck; Tamisiea, Mark; Woodworth, Philip

    2017-04-01

    Sea level and its change have been measured for more than a century. Especially for coastal nations, deltaic regions, and coastal-oriented industries, observations of tides, tidal extremes, storm surges, and sea level rise at the interannual or longer scales have substantial impacts on coastal vulnerability towards resilience and sustainability of world's coastal regions. To date, the observed global sea level rise is largely associated with climate related changes. To find the patterns and fingerprints of those changes, and to e.g., separate the land motion from sea level signals, different monitoring techniques have been developed. Some of them are local, e.g., tide gauges, while others are global, e.g., satellite altimetry. It is well known that sea level change and land vertical motion varies regionally, and both signals need to be measured in order to quantify relative sea level at the local scale. The Global Geodetic Observing System (GGOS) and its services contribute in many ways to the monitoring of the sea level. These includes tide gauge observations, estimation of gravity changes, satellite altimetry, InSAR/Lidar, GNSS-control of tide gauges, providing ground truth sites for satellite altimetry, and importantly the maintenance of the International Reference Frame. Focus Area 3 (Understanding and Forecasting Sea-Level Rise and Variability) of GGOS establishes a platform and a forum for researchers and authorities dealing with estimating global and local sea level changes in a 10- to 30-year time span, and its project to the next century or beyond. It presents an excellent opportunity to emphasize the global, through to regional and local, importance of GGOS to a wide range of sea-level related science and practical applications. Focus Area 3 works trough demonstration projects to highlight the value of geodetic techniques to sea level science and applications. Contributions under a call for participation (http://www.ggos.org/Applications/theme3_SL

  12. Sensitivity analysis of hydrogeological parameters affecting groundwater storage change caused by sea level rise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shin, J.; Kim, K.-H.; Lee, K.-K.

    2012-04-01

    Sea level rise, which is one of the representative phenomena of climate changes caused by global warming, can affect groundwater system. The rising trend of the sea level caused by the global warming is reported to be about 3 mm/year for the most recent 10 year average (IPCC, 2007). The rate of sea level rise around the Korean peninsula is reported to be 2.30±2.22 mm/yr during the 1960-1999 period (Cho, 2002) and 2.16±1.77 mm/yr (Kim et al., 2009) during the 1968-2007 period. Both of these rates are faster than the 1.8±0.5 mm/yr global average for the similar 1961-2003 period (IPCC, 2007). In this study, we analyzed changes in the groundwater environment affected by the sea level rise by using an analytical methodology. We tried to find the most effective parameters of groundwater amount change in order to estimate the change in fresh water amount in coastal groundwater. A hypothetical island model of a cylindrical shape in considered. The groundwater storage change is bi-directional as the sea level rises according to the natural and hydrogeological conditions. Analysis of the computation results shows that topographic slope and hydraulic conductivity are the most sensitive factors. The contributions of the groundwater recharge rate and the thickness of aquifer below sea level are relatively less effective. In the island with steep seashore slopes larger than 1~2 degrees or so, the storage amount of fresh water in a coastal area increases as sea level rises. On the other hand, when sea level drops, the storage amount decreases. This is because the groundwater level also rises with the rising sea level in steep seashores. For relatively flat seashores, where the slope is smaller than around 1-2 degrees, the storage amount of coastal fresh water decreases when the sea level rises because the area flooded by the rising sea water is increased. The volume of aquifer fresh water in this circumstance is greatly reduced in proportion to the flooded area with the sea

  13. Thresholds of sea-level rise rate and sea-level acceleration rate in a vulnerable coastal wetland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, W.; Biber, P.; Bethel, M.

    2017-12-01

    Feedback among inundation, sediment trapping, and vegetation productivity help maintain coastal wetlands facing sea-level rise (SLR). However, when the SLR rate exceeds a threshold, coastal wetlands can collapse. Understanding the threshold help address the key challenge in ecology - nonlinear response of ecosystems to environmental change, and promote communication between ecologists and policy makers. We studied the threshold of SLR rate and developed a new threshold of SLR acceleration rate on sustainability of coastal wetlands as SLR is likely to accelerate due to the enhanced anthropogenic forces. We developed a mechanistic model to simulate wetland change and derived the SLR thresholds for Grand Bay, MS, a micro-tidal estuary with limited upland freshwater and sediment input in the northern Gulf of Mexico. The new SLR acceleration rate threshold complements the threshold of SLR rate and can help explain the temporal lag before the rapid decline of wetland area becomes evident after the SLR rate threshold is exceeded. Deriving these two thresholds depends on the temporal scale, the interaction of SLR with other environmental factors, and landscape metrics, which have not been fully accounted for before this study. The derived SLR rate thresholds range from 7.3 mm/yr to 11.9 mm/yr. The thresholds of SLR acceleration rate are 3.02×10-4 m/yr2 and 9.62×10-5 m/yr2 for 2050 and 2100 respectively. Based on the thresholds developed, predicted SLR that will adversely impact the coastal wetlands in Grand Bay by 2100 will fall within the likely range of SLR under a high warming scenario (RCP8.5), and beyond the very likely range under a low warming scenario (RCP2.6 or 3), highlighting the need to avoid the high warming scenario in the future if these marshes are to be preserved.

  14. Meteorological conditions influencing the formation of level ice within the Baltic Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mazur, A. K.; Krezel, A.

    2012-12-01

    The Baltic Sea is covered by ice every winter and on average, the ice-covered area is 45% of the total area of the Baltic Sea. The beginning of ice season usually starts in the end of November, ice extent is the largest between mid-February and mid-March and sea ice disappears completely in May. The ice covered areas during a typical winter are the Gulf of Bothnia, the Gulf of Finland and the Gulf of Riga. The studies of sea ice in the Baltic Sea are related to two aspects: climate and marine transport. Depending on the local weather conditions during the winter different types of sea ice can be formed. From the point of winter shipping it is important to locate level and deformed ice areas (rafted ice, ridged ice, and hummocked ice). Because of cloud and daylight independency as well as good spatial resolution, SAR data seems to be the most suitable source of data for sea ice observation in the comparatively small area of the Baltic Sea. We used ASAR Wide Swath Mode data with spatial resolution 150 m. We analyzed data from the three winter seasons which were examples of severe, typical and mild winters. To remove the speckle effect the data were resampled to 250 m pixel size and filtred using Frost filter 5x5. To detect edges we used Sobel filter. The data were also converted into grayscale. Sea ice classification was based on Object-Based Image Analysis (OBIA). Object-based methods are not a common tool in sea ice studies but they seem to accurately separate level ice within the ice pack. The data were segmented and classified using eCognition Developer software. Level ice were classified based on texture features defined by Haralick (Grey Level Co-Occurrence Matrix homogeneity, GLCM contrast, GLCM entropy and GLCM correlation). The long-term changes of the Baltic Sea ice conditions have been already studied. They include date of freezing, date of break-up, sea ice extent and some of work also ice thickness. There is a little knowledge about the relationship of

  15. Sea level anomaly on the Patagonian continental shelf: Trends, annual patterns and geostrophic flows

    PubMed Central

    Saraceno, M.; Piola, A. R.; Strub, P. T.

    2016-01-01

    Abstract We study the annual patterns and linear trend of satellite sea level anomaly (SLA) over the southwest South Atlantic continental shelf (SWACS) between 54ºS and 36ºS. Results show that south of 42°S the thermal steric effect explains nearly 100% of the annual amplitude of the SLA, while north of 42°S it explains less than 60%. This difference is due to the halosteric contribution. The annual wind variability plays a minor role over the whole continental shelf. The temporal linear trend in SLA ranges between 1 and 5 mm/yr (95% confidence level). The largest linear trends are found north of 39°S, at 42°S and at 50°S. We propose that in the northern region the large positive linear trends are associated with local changes in the density field caused by advective effects in response to a southward displacement of the South Atlantic High. The causes of the relative large SLA trends in two southern coastal regions are discussed as a function meridional wind stress and river discharge. Finally, we combined the annual cycle of SLA with the mean dynamic topography to estimate the absolute geostrophic velocities. This approach provides the first comprehensive description of the seasonal component of SWACS circulation based on satellite observations. The general circulation of the SWACS is northeastward with stronger/weaker geostrophic currents in austral summer/winter. At all latitudes, geostrophic velocities are larger (up to 20 cm/s) close to the shelf‐break and decrease toward the coast. This spatio‐temporal pattern is more intense north of 45°S. PMID:27840784

  16. Reconciling late Quaternary transgressions in the Bohai Sea, China to the global sea level changes, and new linkage of sedimentary records to three astronomical rhythms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yi, Liang

    2013-04-01

    Terminations. Science 326, 248-252. Ding, Z.L., Yu, Z.W., Rutter, N.W., Liu, T.S., 1994. Towards an orbital time scale for chinese loess deposits. Quaternary Science Reviews 13, 39-70. IOCAS (Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences), 1985. Bohai Sea Geology. Science Press, Beijing, China. Liu, T., 2009. Loess and Arid Environment. Anhui Science & Techonology Press, Hefei, China. Wang, Y., Cheng, H., Edwards, R.L., An, Z., Wu, J., Chen, C.-C., Dorale, J.A., 2001. A High-Resolution Absolute-Dated Late Pleistocene Monsoon Record from Hulu Cave, China. Science 294, 2345-2348. Wang, Y., Cheng, H., Edwards, R.L., Kong, X., Shao, X., Chen, S., Wu, J., Jiang, X., Wang, X., An, Z., 2008. Millennial- and orbital-scale changes in the East Asian monsoon over the past 224,000 years. Nature 451, 1090-1093. Yi, L., Yu, H., Ortiz, J.D., Xu, X., Chen, S., Ge, J., Hao, Q., Yao, J., Shi, X., Peng, S., 2012a. Late Quaternary linkage of sedimentary records to three astronomical rhythms and the Asian monsoon, inferred from a coastal borehole in the south Bohai Sea, China. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology 329-310, 101-117. Yi, L., Lai, Z.P., Yu, H.J., Xu, X.Y., Su, Q., Yao, J., Wang, X.L., Shi, X., 2012b. Chronologies of sedimentary changes in the south Bohai Sea, China: Constraints from luminescence and radiocarbon dating. Boreas, doi: 10.1111/j.1502-3885.2012.00271.x. Yi, L., Yu, H.J., Ortiz, J.D., Xu, X.Y., Qiang, X.K., Huang, H.J., Shi, X., Deng, C.L., 2012c. A reconstruction of late Pleistocene relative sea level in the south Bohai Sea, China, based on sediment grain-size analysis. Sedimentary Geology 281, 88-100. Zhao, S., Yang, G., Cang, S., Zhang, H., Huang, Q., Xia, D., Wang, Y., Liu, F., Liu, C., 1978. Transgression's stratas and shoreline changes in the south coast of Bohai Bay, China. Oceanologia et Limnologia Sinica 9, 15-25.

  17. Doubling of coastal flooding frequency within decades due to sea-level rise

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Vitousek, Sean; Barnard, Patrick L.; Fletcher, Charles H.; Frazer, Neil; Erikson, Li; Storlazzi, Curt D.

    2017-01-01

    Global climate change drives sea-level rise, increasing the frequency of coastal flooding. In most coastal regions, the amount of sea-level rise occurring over years to decades is significantly smaller than normal ocean-level fluctuations caused by tides, waves, and storm surge. However, even gradual sea-level rise can rapidly increase the frequency and severity of coastal flooding. So far, global-scale estimates of increased coastal flooding due to sea-level rise have not considered elevated water levels due to waves, and thus underestimate the potential impact. Here we use extreme value theory to combine sea-level projections with wave, tide, and storm surge models to estimate increases in coastal flooding on a continuous global scale. We find that regions with limited water-level variability, i.e., short-tailed flood-level distributions, located mainly in the Tropics, will experience the largest increases in flooding frequency. The 10 to 20 cm of sea-level rise expected no later than 2050 will more than double the frequency of extreme water-level events in the Tropics, impairing the developing economies of equatorial coastal cities and the habitability of low-lying Pacific island nations.

  18. Longitudinal Changes in AbsoluteVO2peak, Physical Activity Level, Body Mass Index, and Overweightedness among Adolescents in Vocational and Non-Vocational Studies

    PubMed Central

    Lagestad, Pål; Floan, Oddbjørn; Moa, Ivar Fossland

    2017-01-01

    The purpose of the study was to examine differences in physical activity level, physical fitness, body mass index, and overweight among adolescents in vocational and non-vocational studies, at the age of 14, 16, and 19, using a 5-year longitudinal design. Students in sport studies had the highest absoluteVO2peak and higher physical activity levels, than students in vocational subjects and students with a specialization in general studies. However, there were no significant differences between students in vocational subjects and students with a specialization in general studies according to absoluteVO2peak and physical activity levels. Students in vocational subjects were significantly more overweight/obese at 19 years of age, compared with the other students. Our findings support previous research pointing to overweightedness as being more widespread among adolescents in vocational programs than in non-vocational programs. However, differences in the physical activity level and physical fitness do not seem to explain these differences. PMID:28871279

  19. Committed sea-level rise under the Paris Agreement and the legacy of delayed mitigation action.

    PubMed

    Mengel, Matthias; Nauels, Alexander; Rogelj, Joeri; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich

    2018-02-20

    Sea-level rise is a major consequence of climate change that will continue long after emissions of greenhouse gases have stopped. The 2015 Paris Agreement aims at reducing climate-related risks by reducing greenhouse gas emissions to net zero and limiting global-mean temperature increase. Here we quantify the effect of these constraints on global sea-level rise until 2300, including Antarctic ice-sheet instabilities. We estimate median sea-level rise between 0.7 and 1.2 m, if net-zero greenhouse gas emissions are sustained until 2300, varying with the pathway of emissions during this century. Temperature stabilization below 2 °C is insufficient to hold median sea-level rise until 2300 below 1.5 m. We find that each 5-year delay in near-term peaking of CO 2 emissions increases median year 2300 sea-level rise estimates by ca. 0.2 m, and extreme sea-level rise estimates at the 95th percentile by up to 1 m. Our results underline the importance of near-term mitigation action for limiting long-term sea-level rise risks.

  20. Spatial Patterns of Sea Level Variability Associated with Natural Internal Climate Modes

    SciTech Connect

    Han, Weiqing; Meehl, Gerald A.; Stammer, Detlef

    Sea level rise (SLR) can exert significant stress on highly populated coastal societies and low-lying island countries around the world. Because of this, there is huge societal demand for improved decadal predictions and future projections of SLR, particularly on a local scale along coastlines. Regionally, sea level variations can deviate considerably from the global mean due to various geophysical processes. These include changes of ocean circulations, which partially can be attributed to natural, internal modes of variability in the complex Earth’s climate system. Anthropogenic influence may also contribute to regional sea level variations. Separating the effects of natural climate modesmore » and anthropogenic forcing, however, remains a challenge and requires identification of the imprint of specific climate modes in observed sea level change patterns. In this article, we review our current state of knowledge about spatial patterns of sea level variability associated with natural climate modes on interannual-to-multidecadal timescales, with particular focus on decadal-to-multidecadal variability. Relevant climate modes and our current state of understanding their associated sea level patterns and driving mechanisms are elaborated separately for the Pacific, the Indian, the Atlantic, and the Arctic and Southern Oceans. We also discuss the issues, challenges and future outlooks for understanding the regional sea level patterns associated with climate modes. Effects of these internal modes have to be taken into account in order to achieve more reliable near-term predictions and future projections of regional SLR.« less

  1. Mean age of oceanic lithosphere drives eustatic sea-level change since Pangea breakup

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cogné, Jean-Pascal; Humler, Eric; Courtillot, Vincent

    2006-05-01

    The Atlantic and Indian Oceans and the oceanic part of the Antarctic plate have formed at the expense of Panthalassa as a result of Pangea breakup over the last 180 Myr. This major plate reorganization has changed the age vs. surface distribution of oceanic lithosphere and has been a likely driver of sea-level change. Assuming that the age/surface structure of Panthalassa has remained similar to the present-day global distribution from 180 Ma to Present, and using the isochron patterns preserved in the newly formed oceans, we model resulting relative sea-level change. We find a first (slower) phase of sea-level rise (by 90 to 110 m), culminating between 120 and 50 Ma, followed by a (faster) phase of sea-level drop. We show that this result is not strongly sensitive to our hypothesis of constant mean age of Panthalassa, for which much of the information is now erased due to subduction. When the effects of oceanic plateau formation and ice cap development are added, the predicted sea-level curve fits remarkably well the first-order variations of observed sea-level change. We conclude that the changes in mean age of the oceanic lithosphere (varying between 56 and 62 ± 0.2 Myr), which are simply the expression of the Wilson cycle following Pangea breakup, are the main control, accounting for ˜ 70%, of first-order changes in sea-level.

  2. Spatial Patterns of Sea Level Variability Associated with Natural Internal Climate Modes

    DOE PAGES

    Han, Weiqing; Meehl, Gerald A.; Stammer, Detlef; ...

    2016-10-04

    Sea level rise (SLR) can exert significant stress on highly populated coastal societies and low-lying island countries around the world. Because of this, there is huge societal demand for improved decadal predictions and future projections of SLR, particularly on a local scale along coastlines. Regionally, sea level variations can deviate considerably from the global mean due to various geophysical processes. These include changes of ocean circulations, which partially can be attributed to natural, internal modes of variability in the complex Earth’s climate system. Anthropogenic influence may also contribute to regional sea level variations. Separating the effects of natural climate modesmore » and anthropogenic forcing, however, remains a challenge and requires identification of the imprint of specific climate modes in observed sea level change patterns. In this article, we review our current state of knowledge about spatial patterns of sea level variability associated with natural climate modes on interannual-to-multidecadal timescales, with particular focus on decadal-to-multidecadal variability. Relevant climate modes and our current state of understanding their associated sea level patterns and driving mechanisms are elaborated separately for the Pacific, the Indian, the Atlantic, and the Arctic and Southern Oceans. We also discuss the issues, challenges and future outlooks for understanding the regional sea level patterns associated with climate modes. Effects of these internal modes have to be taken into account in order to achieve more reliable near-term predictions and future projections of regional SLR.« less

  3. Climate related sea-level variations over the past two millennia

    PubMed Central

    Kemp, Andrew C.; Horton, Benjamin P.; Donnelly, Jeffrey P.; Mann, Michael E.; Vermeer, Martin; Rahmstorf, Stefan

    2011-01-01

    We present new sea-level reconstructions for the past 2100 y based on salt-marsh sedimentary sequences from the US Atlantic coast. The data from North Carolina reveal four phases of persistent sea-level change after correction for glacial isostatic adjustment. Sea level was stable from at least BC 100 until AD 950. Sea level then increased for 400 y at a rate of 0.6 mm/y, followed by a further period of stable, or slightly falling, sea level that persisted until the late 19th century. Since then, sea level has risen at an average rate of 2.1 mm/y, representing the steepest century-scale increase of the past two millennia. This rate was initiated between AD 1865 and 1892. Using an extended semiempirical modeling approach, we show that these sea-level changes are consistent with global temperature for at least the past millennium. PMID:21690367

  4. Spatial Patterns of Sea Level Variability Associated with Natural Internal Climate Modes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Han, Weiqing; Meehl, Gerald A.; Stammer, Detlef; Hu, Aixue; Hamlington, Benjamin; Kenigson, Jessica; Palanisamy, Hindumathi; Thompson, Philip

    2017-01-01

    Sea level rise (SLR) can exert significant stress on highly populated coastal societies and low-lying island countries around the world. Because of this, there is huge societal demand for improved decadal predictions and future projections of SLR, particularly on a local scale along coastlines. Regionally, sea level variations can deviate considerably from the global mean due to various geophysical processes. These include changes of ocean circulations, which partially can be attributed to natural, internal modes of variability in the complex Earth's climate system. Anthropogenic influence may also contribute to regional sea level variations. Separating the effects of natural climate modes and anthropogenic forcing, however, remains a challenge and requires identification of the imprint of specific climate modes in observed sea level change patterns. In this paper, we review our current state of knowledge about spatial patterns of sea level variability associated with natural climate modes on interannual-to-multidecadal timescales, with particular focus on decadal-to-multidecadal variability. Relevant climate modes and our current state of understanding their associated sea level patterns and driving mechanisms are elaborated separately for the Pacific, the Indian, the Atlantic, and the Arctic and Southern Oceans. We also discuss the issues, challenges and future outlooks for understanding the regional sea level patterns associated with climate modes. Effects of these internal modes have to be taken into account in order to achieve more reliable near-term predictions and future projections of regional SLR.

  5. Coastline Mapping and Cultural Review to Predict Sea Level Rise Impact on Hawaiian Archeological Sites

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Clinton, J.

    2017-12-01

    Much of Hawaii's history is recorded in archeological sites. Researchers and cultural practitioners have been studying and reconstructing significant archeological sites for generations. Climate change, and more specifically, sea level rise may threaten these sites. Our research records current sea levels and then projects possible consequences to these cultural monuments due to sea level rise. In this mixed methods study, research scientists, cultural practitioners, and secondary students use plane-table mapping techniques to create maps of coastlines and historic sites. Students compare historical records to these maps, analyze current sea level rise trends, and calculate future sea levels. They also gather data through interviews with community experts and kupuna (elders). If climate change continues at projected rates, some historic sites will be in danger of negative impact due to sea level rise. Knowing projected sea levels at specific sites allows for preventative action and contributes to raised awareness of the impacts of climate change to the Hawaiian Islands. Students will share results with the community and governmental agencies in hopes of inspiring action to minimize climate change. It will take collaboration between scientists and cultural communities to inspire future action on climate change.

  6. Observation-Driven Estimation of the Spatial Variability of 20th Century Sea Level Rise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hamlington, B. D.; Burgos, A.; Thompson, P. R.; Landerer, F. W.; Piecuch, C. G.; Adhikari, S.; Caron, L.; Reager, J. T.; Ivins, E. R.

    2018-03-01

    Over the past two decades, sea level measurements made by satellites have given clear indications of both global and regional sea level rise. Numerous studies have sought to leverage the modern satellite record and available historic sea level data provided by tide gauges to estimate past sea level rise, leading to several estimates for the 20th century trend in global mean sea level in the range between 1 and 2 mm/yr. On regional scales, few attempts have been made to estimate trends over the same time period. This is due largely to the inhomogeneity and quality of the tide gauge network through the 20th century, which render commonly used reconstruction techniques inadequate. Here, a new approach is adopted, integrating data from a select set of tide gauges with prior estimates of spatial structure based on historical sea level forcing information from the major contributing processes over the past century. The resulting map of 20th century regional sea level rise is optimized to agree with the tide gauge-measured trends, and provides an indication of the likely contributions of different sources to regional patterns. Of equal importance, this study demonstrates the sensitivities of this regional trend map to current knowledge and uncertainty of the contributing processes.

  7. Estimation of sea level variations with GPS/GLONASS-reflectometry technique

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Padokhin, A. M.; Kurbatov, G. A.; Andreeva, E. S.; Nesterov, I. A.; Nazarenko, M. O.; Berbeneva, N. A.; Karlysheva, A. V.

    2017-11-01

    In the present paper we study GNSS - reflectometry methods for estimation of sea level variations using a single GNSSreceiver, which are based on the multipath propagation effects caused by the reflection of navigational signals from the sea surface. Such multipath propagation results in the appearance of the interference pattern in the Signal-to-Noise Ratio (SNR) of GNSS signals at small satellite elevation angles, which parameters are determined by the wavelength of the navigational signal and height of the antenna phase center above the reflecting sea surface. In current work we used GPS and GLONASS signals and measurements at two working frequencies of both systems to study sea level variations which almost doubles the amount of observations compared to GPS-only tide gauge. For UNAVCO sc02 station and collocated Friday Harbor NOAA tide gauge we show good agreement between GNSS-reflectometry and traditional mareograph sea level data.

  8. Under-estimated wave contribution to coastal sea-level rise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Melet, Angélique; Meyssignac, Benoit; Almar, Rafael; Le Cozannet, Gonéri

    2018-03-01

    Coastal communities are threatened by sea-level changes operating at various spatial scales; global to regional variations are associated with glacier and ice sheet loss and ocean thermal expansion, while smaller coastal-scale variations are also related to atmospheric surges, tides and waves. Here, using 23 years (1993-2015) of global coastal sea-level observations, we examine the contribution of these latter processes to long-term sea-level rise, which, to date, have been relatively less explored. It is found that wave contributions can strongly dampen or enhance the effects of thermal expansion and land ice loss on coastal water-level changes at interannual-to-multidecadal timescales. Along the US West Coast, for example, negative wave-induced trends dominate, leading to negative net water-level trends. Accurate estimates of past, present and future coastal sea-level rise therefore need to consider low-frequency contributions of wave set-up and swash.

  9. Modeling the Effects of Sea-Level Rise on Groundwater Levels in Coastal New Hampshire

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jacobs, J. M.; Knott, J. F.; Daniel, J.; Kirshen, P. H.

    2017-12-01

    Coastal communities with high population density and low topography are vulnerable from sea-level rise (SLR) caused by climate change. Groundwater in coastal communities will rise with sea level impacting water quality, the structural integrity of infrastructure, and natural ecosystem health. SLR-induced groundwater rise has been studied in areas of high aquifer transmissivity and in low-lying areas immediately along the coast. In this regional study, we investigate SLR-induced groundwater rise in a coastal area characterized by shallow unconsolidated deposits overlying fractured bedrock, typical of the glaciated northeast United States. MODFLOW, a numerical groundwater-flow model, is used with groundwater observations, lidar topography, surface-water hydrology, and groundwater withdrawals to investigate SLR-induced changes in groundwater levels and vadose-zone thickness in New Hampshire's Seacoast. The SLR groundwater signal is detected up to 5 km from the coast, more than 3 times farther inland than projected surface-water flooding associated with SLR. Relative groundwater rise ranges from 38 to 98% of SLR within 1 km of the shoreline and drops below 4% between 4 and 5 km from the coast. The largest magnitude of SLR-induced groundwater rise occurs in the marine and estuarine deposits and land areas with tidal water bodies on three sides. In contrast, groundwater rise is dampened near streams. Groundwater inundation caused by 2 m of SLR is projected to contribute 48% of the total land inundation area in the City of Portsmouth with consequences for built and natural resources. Freshwater wetlands are projected to expand 3% by year 2030 increasing to 25% by year 2100 coupled with water-depth increases. These results imply that underground infrastructure and natural resources in coastal communities will be impacted by rising groundwater much farther inland than previously thought when considering only surface-water flooding from SLR.

  10. Sea level rise within the west of Arabian Gulf using tide gauge and continuous GPS measurements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ayhan, M. E.; Alothman, A.

    2009-04-01

    Arabian Gulf is connected to Indian Ocean and located in the south-west of the Zagros Trust Belt. To investigate sea level variations within the west of Arabian Gulf, monthly means of sea level at 13 tide gauges along the coast of Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, available in the database of the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL), are studied. We analyzed individually the monthly means at each station, and estimated secular sea level rate by a robust linear trend fitting. We computed the average relative sea level rise rate of 1.96 ± 0.21 mm/yr within the west of Arabian Gulf based on 4 stations spanning longer than 19 years. Vertical land motions are included into the relative sea level measurements at the tide gauges. Therefore sea level rates at the stations are corrected for vertical land motions using the ICE-5G v1.2 VM4 Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) model then we found the average sea level rise rate of 2.27 mm/yr. Bahrain International GPS Service (IGS) GPS station, which is close to the Mina Sulman tide gauge station in Bahrain, is the only continuous GPS station accessible in the region. The weekly GPS time series of vertical component at Bahrain IGS-GPS station referring to the ITRF97 from 1999.2 to 2008.6 are downloaded from http://www-gps.mit.edu/~tah/. We fitted a linear trend with an annual signal and one break to the GPS vertical time series and found a vertical land motion rate of 0.48 ± 0.11 mm/yr. Assuming the vertical rate at Bahrain IGS-GPS station represents the vertical rate at each of the other tide gauge stations studied here in the region, we computed average sea level rise rate of 2.44 ± 0.21 mm/yr within the west of Arabian Gulf.

  11. Estimates of twenty-first century sea-level changes for Norway

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Simpson, Matthew J. R.; Breili, Kristian; Kierulf, Halfdan P.

    2014-03-01

    In this work we establish a framework for estimating future regional sea-level changes for Norway. Following recently published works, we consider how different physical processes drive non-uniform sea-level changes by accounting for spatial variations in (1) ocean density and circulation (2) ice and ocean mass changes and associated gravitational effects on sea level and (3) vertical land motion arising from past surface loading change and associated gravitational effects on sea level. An important component of past and present sea-level change in Norway is glacial isostatic adjustment. Central to our study, therefore, is a reassessment of vertical land motion using a far larger set of new observations from a permanent GNSS network. Our twenty-first century sea-level estimates are split into two parts. Firstly, we show regional projections largely based on findings from the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4) and dependent on the emission scenarios A2, A1B and B1. These indicate that twenty-first century relative sea-level changes in Norway will vary between -0.2 to 0.3 m (1-sigma ± 0.13 m). Secondly, we explore a high-end scenario, in which a global atmospheric temperature rise of up to 6 °C and emerging collapse for some areas of the Antarctic ice sheets are assumed. Using this approach twenty-first century relative sea-level changes in Norway are found to vary between 0.25 and 0.85 m (min/max ± 0.45 m). We attach no likelihood to any of our projections owing to the lack of understanding of some of the processes that cause sea-level change.

  12. Global Projection of Coastal Exposure Associated with Sea-level Rise beyond Tipping Points

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tawatari, R.; Miyazaki, C.; Iseri, Y.; Kiguchi, M.; Kanae, S.

    2015-12-01

    Sea-level rise due to global warming becomes a great matter of concern for global coastal area. Additionally, it has reported in fifth report of IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) that deglaciation of Greenland ice sheet and Antarctic ice sheet would occur rapidly and enhance sea-level rise if temperature passes certain "Tipping point". In terms of projecting damage induced by sea-level rise globally, some previous studies focused on duration until mainly 2100. Furthermore long-term estimations on centuries to millennial climatic response of the ice sheets which are supposed to be triggered within this or next century would be also important to think about future climate and lifestyle in coastal . In this study, I estimated the long term sea-level which take into account the tipping points of Greenland ice sheet (1.4℃) as sum of 4 factors (thermal expansion, glacier and ice cap, Greenland ice sheet, Antarctic ice sheet). The sea-level follows 4 representative concentration pathways up to 3000 obtained through literature reviewing since there were limited available sea-level projections up to 3000. I also estimated a number of affected population lives in coastal area up to 3000 with using the estimated sea-level. The cost for damage, adaptation and mitigation would be also discussed. These estimations would be useful when decision-makers propose policies for construction of dikes and proposing mitigation plans for sustainable future. The result indicates there would be large and relatively rapid increases in both sea-level rise and coastal exposure if global mean temperature passes the tipping point of Greenland ice sheet. However the tipping points, melting rate and timescale of response are highly uncertain and still discussed among experts. Thus more precise and credible information is required for further accurate estimation of long-term sea-level rise and population exposure in the future.

  13. Polar ice-sheet contributions to sea level during past warm periods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dutton, A.

    2015-12-01

    Recent sea-level rise has been dominated by thermal expansion and glacier loss, but the contribution from mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets is expected to exceed other contributions under future sustained warming. Due to limitations of existing ice sheet models and the lack of relevant analogues in the historical record, projecting the timing and magnitude of polar ice sheet mass loss in the future remains challenging. One approach to improving our understanding of how polar ice-sheet retreat will unfold is to integrate observations and models of sea level, ice sheets, and climate during past intervals of warmth when the polar ice sheets contributed to higher sea levels. A recent review evaluated the evidence of polar ice sheet mass loss during several warm periods, including interglacials during the mid-Pliocene warm period, Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11, 5e (Last Interglacial), and 1 (Holocene). Sea-level benchmarks of ice-sheet retreat during the first of these three periods, when global mean climate was ~1 to 3 deg. C warmer than preindustrial, are useful for understanding the long-term potential for future sea-level rise. Despite existing uncertainties in these reconstructions, it is clear that our present climate is warming to a level associated with significant polar ice-sheet loss in the past, resulting in a conservative estimate for a global mean sea-level rise of 6 meters above present (or more). This presentation will focus on identifying the approaches that have yielded significant advances in terms of past sea level and ice sheet reconstruction as well as outstanding challenges. A key element of recent advances in sea-level reconstructions is the ability to recognize and quantify the imprint of geophysical processes, such as glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) and dynamic topography, that lead to significant spatial variability in sea level reconstructions. Identifying specific ice-sheet sources that contributed to higher sea levels

  14. Sea-level change during the last 2500 years in New Jersey, USA

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kemp, Andrew C.; Horton, Benjamin P.; Vane, Christopher H.; Bernhardt, Christopher E.; Corbett, D. Reide; Engelhart, Simon E.; Anisfeld, Shimon C.; Parnell, Andrew C.; Cahill, Niamh

    2013-01-01

    Relative sea-level changes during the last ∼2500 years in New Jersey, USA were reconstructed to test if late Holocene sea level was stable or included persistent and distinctive phases of variability. Foraminifera and bulk-sediment δ13C values were combined to reconstruct paleomarsh elevation with decimeter precision from sequences of salt-marsh sediment at two sites using a multi-proxy approach. The additional paleoenvironmental information provided by bulk-sediment δ13C values reduced vertical uncertainty in the sea-level reconstruction by about one third of that estimated from foraminifera alone using a transfer function. The history of sediment deposition was constrained by a composite chronology. An age–depth model developed for each core enabled reconstruction of sea level with multi-decadal resolution. Following correction for land-level change (1.4 mm/yr), four successive and sustained (multi-centennial) sea-level trends were objectively identified and quantified (95% confidence interval) using error-in-variables change point analysis to account for age and sea-level uncertainties. From at least 500 BC to 250 AD, sea-level fell at 0.11 mm/yr. The second period saw sea-level rise at 0.62 mm/yr from 250 AD to 733 AD. Between 733 AD and 1850 AD, sea level fell at 0.12 mm/yr. The reconstructed rate of sea-level rise since ∼1850 AD was 3.1 mm/yr and represents the most rapid period of change for at least 2500 years. This trend began between 1830 AD and 1873 AD. Since this change point, reconstructed sea-level rise is in agreement with regional tide-gauge records and exceeds the global average estimate for the 20th century. These positive and negative departures from background rates demonstrate that the late Holocene sea level was not stable in New Jersey.

  15. Sea-level and tectonic control of middle to late Pleistocene turbidite systems in Santa Monica Basin, offshore California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Normark, W.R.; Piper, D.J.W.; Sliter, R.

    2006-01-01

    factors appear to have been more important than the absolute position of sea level. ?? 2006 The Authors. Journal compilation 2006 International Association of Sedimentologists.

  16. The Role Of Orbital Forcing On Polar Ice Volume And Global Sea-Level During The Late Pliocene (3.3-.2.6 Ma)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Naish, T.; Grant, G.; Dunbar, G. B.; Patterson, M. O.; Kominz, M. A.; Stocchi, P.

    2017-12-01

    Challenges remain concerning the potentially intractable problem of constraining the absolute magnitude of Pliocene eustatic sea-level change, and the role of orbital forcing on the frequency of ice volume/sea-level change is widely debated. Here, we present three new high-resolution geological archives for the MPWP: (i) ice-berg rafted debris (IBRD) mass accumulation rates from deep ocean sediment core (IODP U1361) off the Wilkes Margin of Antarctica recording fluctuations in the East Antarctic ice sheet; (ii) a continuous shallow-marine record of sea-level change from the Wanganui Basin, New Zealand; and (iii) a record sea-level-controlled terrigenous sedimentation (IODP 1124) to the deep ocean on Hikurangi margin of New Zealand. All three records are dominated by precession-paced cyclicity ( 20ka) in-phase with high-latitude southern hemisphere insolation between 3.3M-2.9Ma, and provide insights into orbital-forcing of ice volume and sea-level independent of the benthic oxygen isotope records. Moreover, we have back-stripped the Wanganui record to reveal glacial-interglacial sea-level changes of 20±10m amplitude. We conclude that during this interval, precession-paced Antarctic ice volume changes largely drove global glacial-interglacial sea-level fluctuations, in the absence of a significant northern hemisphere ice volume contribution. Prior to 3.3Ma, proxy data from IODP U1361 and ANDRILL 1-A records extending back to 5Ma, show that the Antarctic margin experienced warmer ocean temperatures, a lack of perennial sea-ice, and fluctuations in ice extent paced by obliquity. The emergence of precession at 3.3Ma coincident with the M2 glaciation in the benthic d18O record, also coincides with continent-wide cooling, ice expansion and the development of extensive seasonal sea-ice around Antarctica. We argue that a melt threshold response to orbital forcing was crossed, whereby Antarctic ice sheet melt was restricted to peak austral summer insolation (precession

  17. GSOD Based Daily Global Mean Surface Temperature and Mean Sea Level Air Pressure (1982-2011)

    DOE Data Explorer

    Xuan Shi, Dali Wang

    2014-05-05

    This data product contains all the gridded data set at 1/4 degree resolution in ASCII format. Both mean temperature and mean sea level air pressure data are available. It also contains the GSOD data (1982-2011) from NOAA site, contains station number, location, temperature and pressures (sea level and station level). The data package also contains information related to the data processing methods

  18. Model projections of rapid sea-level rise on the northeast coast of the United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yin, Jianjun; Schlesinger, Michael E.; Stouffer, Ronald J.

    2009-04-01

    Human-induced climate change could cause global sea-level rise. Through the dynamic adjustment of the sea surface in response to a possible slowdown of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, a warming climate could also affect regional sea levels, especially in the North Atlantic region, leading to high vulnerability for low-lying Florida and western Europe. Here we analyse climate projections from a set of state-of-the-art climate models for such regional changes, and find a rapid dynamical rise in sea level on the northeast coast of the United States during the twenty-first century. For New York City, the rise due to ocean circulation changes amounts to 15, 20 and 21cm for scenarios with low, medium and high rates of emissions respectively, at a similar magnitude to expected global thermal expansion. Analysing one of the climate models in detail, we find that a dynamic, regional rise in sea level is induced by a weakening meridional overturning circulation in the Atlantic Ocean, and superimposed on the global mean sea-level rise. We conclude that together, future changes in sea level and ocean circulation will have a greater effect on the heavily populated northeastern United States than estimated previously.

  19. Model Projections of Rapid Sea-Level Rise on the Northeast Coast of the United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yin, J.; Schlesinger, M.; Stouffer, R. J.

    2009-12-01

    Human-induced climate change could cause global sea-level rise. Through the dynamic adjustment of the sea surface in response to a possible slowdown of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, a warming climate could also affect regional sea levels, especially in the North Atlantic region, leading to high vulnerability for low-lying Florida and western Europe. In the present study, we analyse climate projections from a set of state-of-the-art climate models for such regional changes, and find a rapid dynamical rise in sea level on the northeast coast of the United States during the twenty-first century. For New York City, the rise due to ocean circulation changes amounts to 15, 20 and 21 cm for scenarios with low, medium and high rates of emissions respectively, at a similar magnitude to expected global thermal expansion. Analysing one of the climate models in detail, we find that a dynamic, regional rise in sea level is induced by a weakening meridional overturning circulation in the Atlantic Ocean, and superimposed on the global mean sea level rise. We conclude that together, future changes in sea level and ocean circulation will have a greater effect on the heavily populated northeastern United States than estimated previously.

  20. Population dynamics of Hawaiian seabird colonies vulnerable to sea-level rise

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hatfield, Jeff S.; Reynolds, Michelle H.; Seavy, Nathaniel E.; Krause, Crystal M.

    2012-01-01

    Globally, seabirds are vulnerable to anthropogenic threats both at sea and on land. Seabirds typically nest colonially and show strong fidelity to natal colonies, and such colonies on low-lying islands may be threatened by sea-level rise. We used French Frigate Shoals, the largest atoll in the Hawaiian Archipelago, as a case study to explore the population dynamics of seabird colonies and the potential effects sea-level rise may have on these rookeries. We compiled historic observations, a 30-year time series of seabird population abundance, lidar-derived elevations, and aerial imagery of all the islands of French Frigate Shoals. To estimate the population dynamics of 8 species of breeding seabirds on Tern Island from 1980 to 2009, we used a Gompertz model with a Bayesian approach to infer population growth rates, density dependence, process variation, and observation error. All species increased in abundance, in a pattern that provided evidence of density dependence. Great Frigatebirds (Fregata minor), Masked Boobies (Sula dactylatra), Red-tailed Tropicbirds (Phaethon rubricauda), Spectacled Terns (Onychoprion lunatus), and White Terns (Gygis alba) are likely at carrying capacity. Density dependence may exacerbate the effects of sea-level rise on seabirds because populations near carrying capacity on an island will be more negatively affected than populations with room for growth. We projected 12% of French Frigate Shoals will be inundated if sea level rises 1 m and 28% if sea level rises 2 m. Spectacled Terns and shrub-nesting species are especially vulnerable to sea-level rise, but seawalls and habitat restoration may mitigate the effects of sea-level rise. Losses of seabird nesting habitat may be substantial in the Hawaiian Islands by 2100 if sea levels rise 2 m. Restoration of higher-elevation seabird colonies represent a more enduring conservation solution for Pacific seabirds.

  1. Population dynamics of Hawaiian seabird colonies vulnerable to sea-level rise.

    PubMed

    Hatfield, Jeff S; Reynolds, Michelle H; Seavy, Nathaniel E; Krause, Crystal M

    2012-08-01

    Globally, seabirds are vulnerable to anthropogenic threats both at sea and on land. Seabirds typically nest colonially and show strong fidelity to natal colonies, and such colonies on low-lying islands may be threatened by sea-level rise. We used French Frigate Shoals, the largest atoll in the Hawaiian Archipelago, as a case study to explore the population dynamics of seabird colonies and the potential effects sea-level rise may have on these rookeries. We compiled historic observations, a 30-year time series of seabird population abundance, lidar-derived elevations, and aerial imagery of all the islands of French Frigate Shoals. To estimate the population dynamics of 8 species of breeding seabirds on Tern Island from 1980 to 2009, we used a Gompertz model with a Bayesian approach to infer population growth rates, density dependence, process variation, and observation error. All species increased in abundance, in a pattern that provided evidence of density dependence. Great Frigatebirds (Fregata minor), Masked Boobies (Sula dactylatra), Red-tailed Tropicbirds (Phaethon rubricauda), Spectacled Terns (Onychoprion lunatus), and White Terns (Gygis alba) are likely at carrying capacity. Density dependence may exacerbate the effects of sea-level rise on seabirds because populations near carrying capacity on an island will be more negatively affected than populations with room for growth. We projected 12% of French Frigate Shoals will be inundated if sea level rises 1 m and 28% if sea level rises 2 m. Spectacled Terns and shrub-nesting species are especially vulnerable to sea-level rise, but seawalls and habitat restoration may mitigate the effects of sea-level rise. Losses of seabird nesting habitat may be substantial in the Hawaiian Islands by 2100 if sea levels rise 2 m. Restoration of higher-elevation seabird colonies represent a more enduring conservation solution for Pacific seabirds. Conservation Biology ©2012 Society for Conservation Biology. No claim to original

  2. Tidal marsh plant responses to elevated CO2 , nitrogen fertilization, and sea level rise.

    PubMed

    Adam Langley, J; Mozdzer, Thomas J; Shepard, Katherine A; Hagerty, Shannon B; Patrick Megonigal, J

    2013-05-01

    Elevated CO2 and nitrogen (N) addition directly affect plant productivity and the mechanisms that allow tidal marshes to maintain a constant elevation relative to sea level, but it remains unknown how these global change drivers modify marsh plant response to sea level rise. Here we manipulated factorial combinations of CO2 concentration (two levels), N availability (two levels) and relative sea level (six levels) using in situ mesocosms containing a tidal marsh community composed of a sedge, Schoenoplectus americanus, and a grass, Spartina patens. Our objective is to determine, if elevated CO2 and N alter the growth and persistence of these plants in coastal ecosystems facing rising sea levels. After two growing seasons, we found that N addition enhanced plant growth particularly at sea levels where plants were most stressed by flooding (114% stimulation in the + 10 cm treatment), and N effects were generally larger in combination with elevated CO2 (288% stimulation). N fertilization shifted the optimal productivity of S. patens to a higher sea level, but did not confer S. patens an enhanced ability to tolerate sea level rise. S. americanus responded strongly to N only in the higher sea level treatments that excluded S. patens. Interestingly, addition of N, which has been suggested to accelerate marsh loss, may afford some marsh plants, such as the widespread sedge, S. americanus, the enhanced ability to tolerate inundation. However, if chronic N pollution reduces the availability of propagules of S. americanus or other flood-tolerant species on the landscape scale, this shift in species dominance could render tidal marshes more susceptible to marsh collapse. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  3. Method for Assessing Impacts of Global Sea Level Rise on Navigation Gate Operations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Obrien, P. S.; White, K. D.; Friedman, D.

    2015-12-01

    Coastal navigation infrastructure may be highly vulnerable to changing climate, including increasing sea levels and altered frequency and intensity of coastal storms. Future gate operations impacted by global sea level rise will pose unique challenges, especially for structures 50 years and older. Our approach is to estimate future changes in gate operational frequency based on a bootstrapping method to forecast future water levels. A case study will be presented to determine future changes in frequency of operations over the next 100 years. A statistical model in the R programming language was developed to apply future sea level rise projections using the three sea level rise scenarios prescribed by USACE Engineer Regulation ER 1100-2-8162. Information derived from the case study will help forecast changes in operational costs caused by increased gate operations and inform timing of decisions on adaptation measures.

  4. Multiproxy assessment of Holocene relative sea-level changes in the western Mediterranean: sea-level variability and improvements in the definition of the isostatic signal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vacchi, Matteo; Rovere, Alessio; Marriner, Nick; Morhange, Christophe; Spada, Giorgio; Fontana, Alessandro

    2016-04-01

    After the review of 918 radiocarbon dated Relative Sea-Level (RSL) data-points we present here the first quality-controlled database constraining the Holocene sea-level histories of the western Mediterranean Sea (Spain, France, Italy, Slovenia, Croatia, Malta and Tunisia). We reviewed and standardized the geological RSL data-points using a new multi-proxy methodology based on: (1) modern taxa assemblages in Mediterranean lagoons and marshes; (2) beachrock characteristics (cement fabric and chemistry, sedimentary structures); and (3) the modern distribution of Mediterranean fixed biological indicators. These RSL data-points were coupled with the large number of archaeological RSL indicators available for the western Mediterranean. We assessed the spatial variability of RSL histories for 22 regions and compared these with the ICE-5G VM2 GIA model. In the western Mediterranean, RSL rose continuously for the whole Holocene with a sudden slowdown at ~7.5 ka BP and a further deceleration during the last ~4.0 ka BP, after which time observed RSL changes are mainly related to variability in isostatic adjustment. The sole exception is southern Tunisia, where data show evidence of a mid-Holocene high-stand compatible with the isostatic impacts of the melting history of the remote Antarctic ice sheet. Our results indicate that late-Holocene sea-level rise was significantly slower than the current one. First estimates of GIA contribution indicate that, at least in the northwestern sector, it accounts at least for the 25-30% of the ongoing sea-level rise recorded by Mediterranean tidal gauges. Such contribution is less constrained at lower latitudes due to the lower quality of the late Holocene index points. Future applications of spatio-temporal statistical techniques are required to better quantify the gradient of the isostatic contribution and to provide improved context for the assessment of 20th century acceleration of Mediterranean sea-level rise.

  5. Caspian sea-level changes during the last millennium: historical and geological evidence from the south Caspian Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Naderi Beni, A.; Lahijani, H.; Mousavi Harami, R.; Arpe, K.; Leroy, S. A. G.; Marriner, N.; Berberian, M.; Andrieu-Ponel, V.; Djamali, M.; Mahboubi, A.; Reimer, P. J.

    2013-07-01

    Historical literature may constitute a valuable source of information to reconstruct sea-level changes. Here, historical documents and geological records have been combined to reconstruct Caspian sea-level (CSL) changes during the last millennium. In addition to a comprehensive literature review, new data from two short sediment cores were obtained from the south-eastern Caspian coast to identify coastal change driven by water-level changes and to compare the results with other geological and historical findings. The overall results indicate a high-stand during the Little Ice Age, up to -21 m (and extra rises due to manmade river avulsion), with a -28 m low-stand during the Medieval Climate Anomaly, while presently the CSL stands at -26.5 m. A comparison of the CSL curve with other lake systems and proxy records suggests that the main sea-level oscillations are essentially paced by solar irradiance. Although the major controller of the long-term CSL changes is driven by climatological factors, the seismicity of the basin creates local changes in base level. These local base-level changes should be considered in any CSL reconstruction.

  6. Caspian Sea level changes during the last millennium: historical and geological evidences from the south Caspian Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Naderi Beni, A.; Lahijani, H.; Mousavi Harami, R.; Arpe, K.; Leroy, S. A. G.; Marriner, N.; Berberian, M.; Andrieu-Ponel, V.; Djamali, M.; Mahboubi, A.

    2013-03-01

    Historical literature may constitute a valuable source of information to reconstruct sea level changes. Here, historical documents and geological records have been combined to reconstruct Caspian sea-level (CSL) changes during the last millennium. In addition to a literature survey, new data from two short sediment cores were obtained from the south-eastern Caspian coast to identify coastal change driven by water-level changes. Two articulated bivalve shells from the marine facies were radiocarbon dated and calibrated to establish a chronology and to compare them with historical findings. The overall results indicate a high-stand during the Little Ice Age, up to -19 m, with a -28 m low-stand during the Medieval Climate Anomaly, while presently the CSL stands at -26.5 m. A comparison of the CSL curve with other lake systems and proxy records suggests that the main sea-level oscillations are essentially paced by solar irradiance. Although the major controller of the long-term CSL changes is driven by climatological factors, the seismicity of the basin could create locally changes in base level. These local base-level changes should be considered in any CSL reconstruction.

  7. Do we have to take an acceleration of sea level rise into account?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dillingh, D.; Baart, F.; de Ronde, J.

    2012-04-01

    In view of preservation of safety against inundation and of the many values and functions of the coastal zone, coastal retreat is no longer acceptable. That is why it was decided to maintain the Dutch coastline on its position in 1990. Later the preservation concept was extended to the Dutch coastal foundation, which is the area that encompasses all dune area's and hard sea defences and reaches seawards until the 20m depth contour line. Present Dutch coastal policy is to grow with sea level by means of sand nourishments. A main issue for the planning of sand nourishments is the rate of sea level rise, because that is the main parameter for the volume of the sand needed. The question is than relevant if we already have to take into account an acceleration of sea level rise. Six stations with long water level records, well spread along the Dutch coast, were analysed. Correction of the measured data was considered necessary for an adaptation of the NAP in 2005 as a consequence of movements of the top of the pleistoceen, on which the NAP bench marks have been founded, and for the 18.6 year (nodal) cycle in the time series of yearly mean sea levels. It has been concluded that along the Dutch coast no significant acceleration of sea level rise could be detected yet. Over the last 120 years sea level rose with an average speed of 19 cm per century relative to NAP (the Dutch ordnance datum). Time series shorter than about 50 years showed less robust estimates of sea level rise. Future sea level rise also needs consideration in view of the estimate of future sand nourishment volumes. Scenario's for sea level rise have been derived for the years 2050 and 2100 relative to 1990 by the KNMI (Dutch Met Office) in 2006 for the Dutch situation. Plausible curves have been drawn from 1990 tangent to the linear regression line in 1990 and forced through the high and low scenario projections for 2050 and 2100. These curves show discrepancies with measurements of the last decade

  8. Measuring precise sea level from a buoy using the global positioning system

    SciTech Connect

    Rocken, C.; Kelecy, T.M.; Born, G.H.

    1990-11-01

    High-accuracy sea surface positioning is required for sea floor geodesy, satellite altimeter verification, and the study of sea level. An experiment to study the feasibility of using the Global Positioning System (GPS) for accurate sea surface positioning was conducted. A GPS-equipped buoy (floater) was deployed off the Scripps pier at La Jolla, California during December 13-15, 1989. Two reference GPS receivers were placed on land, one within {approximately}100 m of the floater, and the other about 80 km inland at the laser ranging site on Monument Peak. The position of the floater was determined relative to the land-fixed receivers using:more » (a) kinematic GPS processing software developed at the National Geodetic Survey (NGS), and (b) the Jet Propulsion Laboratory's GIPSY (GPS Inferred Positioning SYstem) software. Sea level and ocean wave spectra were calculated from GPPS measurements. These results were compared to measurements made with a NOAA tide gauge and a Paros{trademark} pressure transducer (PPT). GPS sea level for the short 100-m baseline agrees with the PPT sea level at the 1-cm level and has an rms variation of 5 mm over a period of 4 hours. Agreement between results with the two independent GPS analyses is on the order of a few millimeters. Processing of the longer Monument Peak - floater baseline is in progress and will require orbit adjustments and tropospheric modeling to obtain results comparable to the short baseline.« less

  9. Sea-level Change during Hothouse, Cool Greenhouse, and Icehouse Worlds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miller, K. G.; Browning, J. V.; Wright, J. D.

    2015-12-01

    Comparison of sea level and climate proxies shows fundamentally different causes and responses (periods, amplitudes, rates) for Myr scale sea-level changes in Hothouse, Cool Greenhouse, and Icehouse worlds. Peak warmth of the past 100 million years was achieved in the Hothouse intervals of the Cenomanian-Santonian (ca. 100-80 Ma) and early Eocene (56-50 Ma). Hothouse global average sea level falls of ~15 m are associated with d18O increases that reflect primarily high latitude cooling and may reflect the growth of small ice sheets in elevated regions of Antarctica. However, these purported Hothouse ice sheets are at or below the detection level of the d18O proxy (15 m ≤ 0.15‰), and it is possible that changes in groundwater storage ('limnoeustasy') could have caused these falls. Cool greenhouse (Campanian to Paleocene, middle to late Eocene) sea-level changes of 15-25 m were caused by growth and decay of small (25-35% of modern) ice sheets, pacing sea-level change on an apparent 2.4 Myr long eccentricity cycle, likely modulating 405 and 100 kyr cycles. Icehouse (past 33.8 Myr) sea-level and ice-volume changes were paced by the 1.2 Myr tilt cycle, with alternating states of 41 and 100 kyr dominance. Warm periods in the Icehouse displayed different sea-level responses. During the largely unipolar Icehouse of the Oligocene to early Miocene, the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) was not permanently developed, with intervals of large-scale (~40-55 m sea level equivalent) growth and collapse. During peak warmth of the Miocene Climate Optimum (MCO; ~17-15 Ma) ice volume changes were small (generally <20 m) and paced by the 100 kyr cycle. A permanent EAIS developed following 3 middle Miocene d18O increases (14.7, 13.8, and 13.2 Ma) that were largely cooling events associated with <40 m sea-level falls; the subsequent late Miocene EAIS displayed lower amplitude (~20-30 m) sea-level variations. Despite only moderate atmospheric CO2 levels (400±50 ppm), during the peak

  10. Repeated Measurement of Absolute and Relative Judgments of Loudness: Clinical Relevance for Prescriptive Fitting of Aided Target Gains for soft, Comfortable, and Loud, But Ok Sound Levels.

    PubMed

    Formby, Craig; Payne, JoAnne; Yang, Xin; Wu, Delphanie; Parton, Jason M

    2017-02-01

    This study was undertaken with the purpose of streamlining clinical measures of loudness growth to facilitate and enhance prescriptive fitting of nonlinear hearing aids. Repeated measures of loudness at 500 and 3,000 Hz were obtained bilaterally at monthly intervals over a 6-month period from three groups of young adult listeners. All volunteers had normal audiometric hearing sensitivity and middle ear function, and all denied problems related to sound tolerance. Group 1 performed judgments of soft and loud, but OK for presentation of ascending sound levels. We defined these judgments operationally as absolute judgments of loudness. Group 2 initially performed loudness judgments across a continuum of seven loudness categories ranging from judgments of very soft to uncomfortably loud for presentation of ascending sound levels per the Contour Test of Loudness; we defined these judgments as relative judgments of loudness. In the same session, they then performed the absolute judgments for soft and loud, but OK sound levels. Group 3 performed the same set of loudness judgments as did group 2, but the task order was reversed such that they performed the absolute judgments initially within each test session followed by the relative judgments. The key findings from this study were as follows: (1) Within group, the absolute and relative tasks yielded clinically similar judgments for soft and for loud, but OK sound levels. These judgments were largely independent of task order, ear, frequency, or trial order within a given session. (2) Loudness judgments increased, on average, by ∼3 dB between the first and last test session, which is consistent with the commonly reported acclimatization effect reported for incremental changes in loudness discomfort levels as a consequence of chronic bilateral hearing aid use. (3) Measured and predicted comfortable judgments of loudness were in good agreement for the individual listener and for groups of listeners. These comfortable

  11. Repeated Measurement of Absolute and Relative Judgments of Loudness: Clinical Relevance for Prescriptive Fitting of Aided Target Gains for soft, Comfortable, and Loud, But Ok Sound Levels

    PubMed Central

    Formby, Craig; Payne, JoAnne; Yang, Xin; Wu, Delphanie; Parton, Jason M.

    2017-01-01

    This study was undertaken with the purpose of streamlining clinical measures of loudness growth to facilitate and enhance prescriptive fitting of nonlinear hearing aids. Repeated measures of loudness at 500 and 3,000 Hz were obtained bilaterally at monthly intervals over a 6-month period from three groups of young adult listeners. All volunteers had normal audiometric hearing sensitivity and middle ear function, and all denied problems related to sound tolerance. Group 1 performed judgments of soft and loud, but OK for presentation of ascending sound levels. We defined these judgments operationally as absolute judgments of loudness. Group 2 initially performed loudness judgments across a continuum of seven loudness categories ranging from judgments of very soft to uncomfortably loud for presentation of ascending sound levels per the Contour Test of Loudness; we defined these judgments as relative judgments of loudness. In the same session, they then performed the absolute judgments for soft and loud, but OK sound levels. Group 3 performed the same set of loudness judgments as did group 2, but the task order was reversed such that they performed the absolute judgments initially within each test session followed by the relative judgments. The key findings from this study were as follows: (1) Within group, the absolute and relative tasks yielded clinically similar judgments for soft and for loud, but OK sound levels. These judgments were largely independent of task order, ear, frequency, or trial order within a given session. (2) Loudness judgments increased, on average, by ∼3 dB between the first and last test session, which is consistent with the commonly reported acclimatization effect reported for incremental changes in loudness discomfort levels as a consequence of chronic bilateral hearing aid use. (3) Measured and predicted comfortable judgments of loudness were in good agreement for the individual listener and for groups of listeners. These comfortable

  12. Relative sea-level change in the central Cyclades (Greece) since the Early Bronze Age

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Draganits, E.

    2012-04-01

    The Aegean is a focus of important cultural achievements in Europe since the Neolithic period. The resulting abundance of archaeological remains, many of them below sea-level represent an advantageous area for the study of local relative sea-level change. We have carried out detailed mapping of Despotiko Island (SW of Antiparos) and its surrounding. Despotiko is situated almost exactly in the center of the Cyclades (as defined nowadays), more so than Delos, and therefore is very well suited for sea-level studies of the Cyclades. This beneficial location, combined with a spacious and protected bay, additionally may explain its former importance as stepping-stone in the Aegean Sea. The island is uninhabited at present, but Early Bronze Age settlement sites and graveyards as well as a large Archaic sanctuary proof its former importance. The sanctuary is situated on a gently northeast dipping slope in the northeast part of Despotiko, in range of sight of the Órmos Despotiko. Since 1997 large parts of this important sanctuary have been excavated during several excavation campaigns. Tectonically, Despotiko, Antiparos and Paros, belong to the Attic-Cycladic Crystalline of the Central Hellenides, a stack of metamorphic tectonic nappes, mainly comprising variable types of gneiss, schist, marble and amphibolite, and tectonic slices of unmetamorphosed sediments on top, separated by low-angle normal faults from the metamorphic units below. Submerged archaeological structures at the sea bottom of the Órmos Despotiko, a Classical marble inscription from the sanctuary and partly submerged agriculture trenches at the east coast Despotiko, indicate that the relative sea-level in this area was some 3 m lower during the Early Bronze Age and still more than 1 m lower during Classical time. These values of relative sea-level rise indicate a subsidence component additional to the global sea-level rise in the investigated time period. Neglecting possible vertical tectonic movements and

  13. Coral Microatolls and Their Role as Fixed Biological Indicators of Holocene Sea-Level Changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Woodroffe, C. D.; Smithers, S. G.; McGregor, H. V.

    2008-12-01

    Corals microatolls are individual colonies of massive coral that have grown up to a level at which further upward growth is constrained by exposure at low tide, and which then continue to grow outwards, resulting in a flat-topped discoid morphology. Typically, microatolls comprise a single colony of massive Porites up to several metres in diameter. Modern microatolls are living on their outer margin but are predominantly dead on their upper surface. Microatolls are fixed biological sea-level indicators of the former upper limits to coral growth providing information on sea level at several temporal scales. Fossil microatolls have been used extensively to reconstruct broad patterns of Holocene sea-level trends in the Indo-Pacific reef province. Where they are preserved at a height above that of their living counterparts in the eastern Indian Ocean, Southeast Asia, northern Australia, and across much of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, they indicate that reef flats have experienced relatively higher sea levels in the mid- and late Holocene. Progressively lower corals have been interpreted to record the fall in sea level to its present position over millennial time scales. Large specimens of microatolls can reach several metres in diameter and contain a growth record of tens to hundreds of years; the up