Time series sightability modeling of animal populations.

PubMed

ArchMiller, Althea A; Dorazio, Robert M; St Clair, Katherine; Fieberg, John R

2018-01-01

Logistic regression models-or "sightability models"-fit to detection/non-detection data from marked individuals are often used to adjust for visibility bias in later detection-only surveys, with population abundance estimated using a modified Horvitz-Thompson (mHT) estimator. More recently, a model-based alternative for analyzing combined detection/non-detection and detection-only data was developed. This approach seemed promising, since it resulted in similar estimates as the mHT when applied to data from moose (Alces alces) surveys in Minnesota. More importantly, it provided a framework for developing flexible models for analyzing multiyear detection-only survey data in combination with detection/non-detection data. During initial attempts to extend the model-based approach to multiple years of detection-only data, we found that estimates of detection probabilities and population abundance were sensitive to the amount of detection-only data included in the combined (detection/non-detection and detection-only) analysis. Subsequently, we developed a robust hierarchical modeling approach where sightability model parameters are informed only by the detection/non-detection data, and we used this approach to fit a fixed-effects model (FE model) with year-specific parameters and a temporally-smoothed model (TS model) that shares information across years via random effects and a temporal spline. The abundance estimates from the TS model were more precise, with decreased interannual variability relative to the FE model and mHT abundance estimates, illustrating the potential benefits from model-based approaches that allow information to be shared across years.

Time series sightability modeling of animal populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

ArchMiller, Althea A.; Dorazio, Robert; St. Clair, Katherine; Fieberg, John R.

2018-01-01

Logistic regression models—or “sightability models”—fit to detection/non-detection data from marked individuals are often used to adjust for visibility bias in later detection-only surveys, with population abundance estimated using a modified Horvitz-Thompson (mHT) estimator. More recently, a model-based alternative for analyzing combined detection/non-detection and detection-only data was developed. This approach seemed promising, since it resulted in similar estimates as the mHT when applied to data from moose (Alces alces) surveys in Minnesota. More importantly, it provided a framework for developing flexible models for analyzing multiyear detection-only survey data in combination with detection/non-detection data. During initial attempts to extend the model-based approach to multiple years of detection-only data, we found that estimates of detection probabilities and population abundance were sensitive to the amount of detection-only data included in the combined (detection/non-detection and detection-only) analysis. Subsequently, we developed a robust hierarchical modeling approach where sightability model parameters are informed only by the detection/non-detection data, and we used this approach to fit a fixed-effects model (FE model) with year-specific parameters and a temporally-smoothed model (TS model) that shares information across years via random effects and a temporal spline. The abundance estimates from the TS model were more precise, with decreased interannual variability relative to the FE model and mHT abundance estimates, illustrating the potential benefits from model-based approaches that allow information to be shared across years.

ROOT BIOMASS ALLOCATION IN THE WORLD'S UPLAND FORESTS

EPA Science Inventory

Because the world's forests play a major role in regulating nutrient and carbon cycles, there is much interest in estimating their biomass. Estimates of aboveground biomass based on well-established methods are relatively abundant; estimates of root biomass based on standard meth...

Chapter 31: Abundance and Distribution of Marbled Murrelets in Oregon and Washington Based on Aerial Surveys

Treesearch

Daniel H. Varoujean II; Wendy A. Williams

1995-01-01

To determine the abundance and distribution of Marbled Murrelets, aerial surveys of the Oregon coast, Washington outer coast, and shores of the western Strait of Juan de Fuca were conducted in August/September 1993. Based on these marine surveys, abundance estimates are established for Oregon (6,400-6,800 birds) and the waters surveyed in Washington (3,400-3,600 birds...

Evaluating abundance and trends in a Hawaiian avian community using state-space analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Camp, Richard J.; Brinck, Kevin W.; Gorresen, P.M.; Paxton, Eben H.

2016-01-01

Estimating population abundances and patterns of change over time are important in both ecology and conservation. Trend assessment typically entails fitting a regression to a time series of abundances to estimate population trajectory. However, changes in abundance estimates from year-to-year across time are due to both true variation in population size (process variation) and variation due to imperfect sampling and model fit. State-space models are a relatively new method that can be used to partition the error components and quantify trends based only on process variation. We compare a state-space modelling approach with a more traditional linear regression approach to assess trends in uncorrected raw counts and detection-corrected abundance estimates of forest birds at Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge, Hawai‘i. Most species demonstrated similar trends using either method. In general, evidence for trends using state-space models was less strong than for linear regression, as measured by estimates of precision. However, while the state-space models may sacrifice precision, the expectation is that these estimates provide a better representation of the real world biological processes of interest because they are partitioning process variation (environmental and demographic variation) and observation variation (sampling and model variation). The state-space approach also provides annual estimates of abundance which can be used by managers to set conservation strategies, and can be linked to factors that vary by year, such as climate, to better understand processes that drive population trends.

Comparison of methods for estimating bird abundance and trends from historical count data

Treesearch

Frank R. Thompson; Frank A. La Sorte

2008-01-01

The use of bird counts as indices has come under increasing scrutiny because assumptions concerning detection probabilities may not be met, but there also seems to be some resistance to use of model-based approaches to estimating abundance. We used data from the United States Forest Service, Southern Region bird monitoring program to compare several common approaches...

Thermal affinity as the dominant factor changing Mediterranean fish abundances.

PubMed

Givan, Or; Edelist, Dor; Sonin, Oren; Belmaker, Jonathan

2018-01-01

Recent decades have seen profound changes in species abundance and community composition. In the marine environment, the major anthropogenic drivers of change comprise exploitation, invasion by nonindigenous species, and climate change. However, the magnitude of these stressors has been widely debated and we lack empirical estimates of their relative importance. In this study, we focused on Eastern Mediterranean, a region exposed to an invasion of species of Red Sea origin, extreme climate change, and high fishing pressure. We estimated changes in fish abundance using two fish trawl surveys spanning a 20-year period, and correlated these changes with estimated sensitivity of species to the different stressors. We estimated sensitivity to invasion using the trait similarity between indigenous and nonindigenous species; sensitivity to fishing using a published composite index based on the species' life-history; and sensitivity to climate change using species climatic affinity based on occurrence data. Using both a meta-analytical method and random forest analysis, we found that for shallow-water species the most important driver of population size changes is sensitivity to climate change. Species with an affinity to warm climates increased in relative abundance and species with an affinity to cold climates decreased suggesting a strong response to warming local sea temperatures over recent decades. This decrease in the abundance of cold-water-associated species at the trailing "warm" end of their distribution has been rarely documented. Despite the immense biomass of nonindigenous species and the presumed high fishing pressure, these two latter factors seem to have only a minor role in explaining abundance changes. The decline in abundance of indigenous species of cold-water origin indicates a future major restructuring of fish communities in the Mediterranean in response to the ongoing warming, with unknown impacts on ecosystem function. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Google Haul Out: Earth Observation Imagery and Digital Aerial Surveys in Coastal Wildlife Management and Abundance Estimation

PubMed Central

Moxley, Jerry H.; Bogomolni, Andrea; Hammill, Mike O.; Moore, Kathleen M. T.; Polito, Michael J.; Sette, Lisa; Sharp, W. Brian; Waring, Gordon T.; Gilbert, James R.; Halpin, Patrick N.; Johnston, David W.

2017-01-01

Abstract As the sampling frequency and resolution of Earth observation imagery increase, there are growing opportunities for novel applications in population monitoring. New methods are required to apply established analytical approaches to data collected from new observation platforms (e.g., satellites and unmanned aerial vehicles). Here, we present a method that estimates regional seasonal abundances for an understudied and growing population of gray seals (Halichoerus grypus) in southeastern Massachusetts, using opportunistic observations in Google Earth imagery. Abundance estimates are derived from digital aerial survey counts by adapting established correction-based analyses with telemetry behavioral observation to quantify survey biases. The result is a first regional understanding of gray seal abundance in the northeast US through opportunistic Earth observation imagery and repurposed animal telemetry data. As species observation data from Earth observation imagery become more ubiquitous, such methods provide a robust, adaptable, and cost-effective solution to monitoring animal colonies and understanding species abundances. PMID:29599542

Google Haul Out: Earth Observation Imagery and Digital Aerial Surveys in Coastal Wildlife Management and Abundance Estimation.

PubMed

Moxley, Jerry H; Bogomolni, Andrea; Hammill, Mike O; Moore, Kathleen M T; Polito, Michael J; Sette, Lisa; Sharp, W Brian; Waring, Gordon T; Gilbert, James R; Halpin, Patrick N; Johnston, David W

2017-08-01

As the sampling frequency and resolution of Earth observation imagery increase, there are growing opportunities for novel applications in population monitoring. New methods are required to apply established analytical approaches to data collected from new observation platforms (e.g., satellites and unmanned aerial vehicles). Here, we present a method that estimates regional seasonal abundances for an understudied and growing population of gray seals (Halichoerus grypus) in southeastern Massachusetts, using opportunistic observations in Google Earth imagery. Abundance estimates are derived from digital aerial survey counts by adapting established correction-based analyses with telemetry behavioral observation to quantify survey biases. The result is a first regional understanding of gray seal abundance in the northeast US through opportunistic Earth observation imagery and repurposed animal telemetry data. As species observation data from Earth observation imagery become more ubiquitous, such methods provide a robust, adaptable, and cost-effective solution to monitoring animal colonies and understanding species abundances.

Monitoring waterbird abundance in wetlands: The importance of controlling results for variation in water depth

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bolduc, F.; Afton, A.D.

2008-01-01

Wetland use by waterbirds is highly dependent on water depth, and depth requirements generally vary among species. Furthermore, water depth within wetlands often varies greatly over time due to unpredictable hydrological events, making comparisons of waterbird abundance among wetlands difficult as effects of habitat variables and water depth are confounded. Species-specific relationships between bird abundance and water depth necessarily are non-linear; thus, we developed a methodology to correct waterbird abundance for variation in water depth, based on the non-parametric regression of these two variables. Accordingly, we used the difference between observed and predicted abundances from non-parametric regression (analogous to parametric residuals) as an estimate of bird abundance at equivalent water depths. We scaled this difference to levels of observed and predicted abundances using the formula: ((observed - predicted abundance)/(observed + predicted abundance)) ?? 100. This estimate also corresponds to the observed:predicted abundance ratio, which allows easy interpretation of results. We illustrated this methodology using two hypothetical species that differed in water depth and wetland preferences. Comparisons of wetlands, using both observed and relative corrected abundances, indicated that relative corrected abundance adequately separates the effect of water depth from the effect of wetlands. ?? 2008 Elsevier B.V.

[Aquatic Ecological Index based on freshwater (ICE(RN-MAE)) for the Rio Negro watershed, Colombia].

PubMed

Forero, Laura Cristina; Longo, Magnolia; John Jairo, Ramirez; Guillermo, Chalar

2014-04-01

Aquatic Ecological Index based on freshwater (ICE(RN-MAE)) for the Rio Negro watershed, Colombia. Available indices to assess the ecological status of rivers in Colombia are mostly based on subjective hypotheses about macroinvertebrate tolerance to pollution, which have important limitations. Here we present the application of a method to establish an index of ecological quality for lotic systems in Colombia. The index, based on macroinvertebrate abundance and physicochemical variables, was developed as an alternative to the BMWP-Col index. The method consists on determining an environmental gradient from correlations between physicochemical variables and abundance. The scores obtained in each sampling point are used in a standardized correlation for a model of weighted averages (WA). In the WA model abundances are also weighted to estimate the optimum and tolerance values of each taxon; using this information we estimated the index of ecological quality based also on macroinvertebrate (ICE(RN-MAE)) abundance in each sampling site. Subsequently, we classified all sites using the index and concentrations of total phosphorus (TP) in a cluster analysis. Using TP and ICE(RN-MAE), mean, maximum, minimum and standard deviation, we defined threshold values corresponding to three categories of ecological status: good, fair and critical.

Consideraciones para la estimacion de abundancia de poblaciones de mamiferos. [Considerations for the estimation of abundance of mammal populations.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Walker, R.S.; Novare, A.J.; Nichols, J.D.

2000-01-01

Estimation of abundance of mammal populations is essential for monitoring programs and for many ecological investigations. The first step for any study of variation in mammal abundance over space or time is to define the objectives of the study and how and why abundance data are to be used. The data used to estimate abundance are count statistics in the form of counts of animals or their signs. There are two major sources of uncertainty that must be considered in the design of the study: spatial variation and the relationship between abundance and the count statistic. Spatial variation in the distribution of animals or signs may be taken into account with appropriate spatial sampling. Count statistics may be viewed as random variables, with the expected value of the count statistic equal to the true abundance of the population multiplied by a coefficient p. With direct counts, p represents the probability of detection or capture of individuals, and with indirect counts it represents the rate of production of the signs as well as their probability of detection. Comparisons of abundance using count statistics from different times or places assume that the p are the same for all times or places being compared (p= pi). In spite of considerable evidence that this assumption rarely holds true, it is commonly made in studies of mammal abundance, as when the minimum number alive or indices based on sign counts are used to compare abundance in different habitats or times. Alternatives to relying on this assumption are to calibrate the index used by testing the assumption of p= pi, or to incorporate the estimation of p into the study design.

Indexing the relative abundance of age-0 white sturgeons in an impoundment of the lower Columbia River from highly skewed trawling data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Counihan, T.D.; Miller, Allen I.; Parsley, M.J.

1999-01-01

The development of recruitment monitoring programs for age-0 white sturgeons Acipenser transmontanus is complicated by the statistical properties of catch-per-unit-effort (CPUE) data. We found that age-0 CPUE distributions from bottom trawl surveys violated assumptions of statistical procedures based on normal probability theory. Further, no single data transformation uniformly satisfied these assumptions because CPUE distribution properties varied with the sample mean (??(CPUE)). Given these analytic problems, we propose that an additional index of age-0 white sturgeon relative abundance, the proportion of positive tows (Ep), be used to estimate sample sizes before conducting age-0 recruitment surveys and to evaluate statistical hypothesis tests comparing the relative abundance of age-0 white sturgeons among years. Monte Carlo simulations indicated that Ep was consistently more precise than ??(CPUE), and because Ep is binomially rather than normally distributed, surveys can be planned and analyzed without violating the assumptions of procedures based on normal probability theory. However, we show that Ep may underestimate changes in relative abundance at high levels and confound our ability to quantify responses to management actions if relative abundance is consistently high. If data suggest that most samples will contain age-0 white sturgeons, estimators of relative abundance other than Ep should be considered. Because Ep may also obscure correlations to climatic and hydrologic variables if high abundance levels are present in time series data, we recommend ??(CPUE) be used to describe relations to environmental variables. The use of both Ep and ??(CPUE) will facilitate the evaluation of hypothesis tests comparing relative abundance levels and correlations to variables affecting age-0 recruitment. Estimated sample sizes for surveys should therefore be based on detecting predetermined differences in Ep, but data necessary to calculate ??(CPUE) should also be collected.

Oxygen abundance distributions in six late-type galaxies based on SALT spectra of H II regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zinchenko, I. A.; Kniazev, A. Y.; Grebel, E. K.; Pilyugin, L. S.

2015-10-01

Spectra of 34 H ii regions in the late-type galaxies NGC 1087, NGC 2967, NGC 3023, NGC 4030, NGC 4123, and NGC 4517A were observed with the South African Large Telescope (SALT). In all 34 H ii regions, oxygen abundances were determined through the "counterpart" method (C method). Additionally, in two H ii regions in which we detected auroral lines, we measured oxygen abundances with the classic Te method. We also estimated the abundances in our H ii regions using the O3N2 and N2 calibrations and compared those with the C-based abundances. With these data, we examined the radial abundance distributions in the disks of our target galaxies. We derived surface-brightness profiles and other characteristics of the disks (the surface brightness at the disk center and the disk scale length) in three photometric bands for each galaxy using publicly available photometric imaging data. The radial distributions of the oxygen abundances predicted by the relation between abundance and disk surface brightness in the W1 band obtained for spiral galaxies in our previous study are close to the radial distributions of the oxygen abundances determined from the analysis of the emission line spectra for four galaxies where this relation is applicable. Hence, when the surface-brightness profile of a late-type galaxy is known, this parametric relation can be used to estimate the likely present-day oxygen abundance in the disk of the galaxy. Based on observations made with the Southern African Large Telescope, programs 2012-1-RSA_OTH-001, 2012-2-RSA_OTH-003 and 2013-1-RSA_OTH-005.

Estimating Animal Abundance in Ground Beef Batches Assayed with Molecular Markers

PubMed Central

Hu, Xin-Sheng; Simila, Janika; Platz, Sindey Schueler; Moore, Stephen S.; Plastow, Graham; Meghen, Ciaran N.

2012-01-01

Estimating animal abundance in industrial scale batches of ground meat is important for mapping meat products through the manufacturing process and for effectively tracing the finished product during a food safety recall. The processing of ground beef involves a potentially large number of animals from diverse sources in a single product batch, which produces a high heterogeneity in capture probability. In order to estimate animal abundance through DNA profiling of ground beef constituents, two parameter-based statistical models were developed for incidence data. Simulations were applied to evaluate the maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) of a joint likelihood function from multiple surveys, showing superiority in the presence of high capture heterogeneity with small sample sizes, or comparable estimation in the presence of low capture heterogeneity with a large sample size when compared to other existing models. Our model employs the full information on the pattern of the capture-recapture frequencies from multiple samples. We applied the proposed models to estimate animal abundance in six manufacturing beef batches, genotyped using 30 single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers, from a large scale beef grinding facility. Results show that between 411∼1367 animals were present in six manufacturing beef batches. These estimates are informative as a reference for improving recall processes and tracing finished meat products back to source. PMID:22479559

Modeling abundance effects in distance sampling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Royle, J. Andrew; Dawson, D.K.; Bates, S.

2004-01-01

Distance-sampling methods are commonly used in studies of animal populations to estimate population density. A common objective of such studies is to evaluate the relationship between abundance or density and covariates that describe animal habitat or other environmental influences. However, little attention has been focused on methods of modeling abundance covariate effects in conventional distance-sampling models. In this paper we propose a distance-sampling model that accommodates covariate effects on abundance. The model is based on specification of the distance-sampling likelihood at the level of the sample unit in terms of local abundance (for each sampling unit). This model is augmented with a Poisson regression model for local abundance that is parameterized in terms of available covariates. Maximum-likelihood estimation of detection and density parameters is based on the integrated likelihood, wherein local abundance is removed from the likelihood by integration. We provide an example using avian point-transect data of Ovenbirds (Seiurus aurocapillus) collected using a distance-sampling protocol and two measures of habitat structure (understory cover and basal area of overstory trees). The model yields a sensible description (positive effect of understory cover, negative effect on basal area) of the relationship between habitat and Ovenbird density that can be used to evaluate the effects of habitat management on Ovenbird populations.

Estimating number and size of forest patches from FIA plot data

Treesearch

Mark D. Nelson; Andrew J. Lister; Mark H. Hansen

2009-01-01

Forest inventory and analysis (FIA) annual plot data provide for estimates of forest area, type, volume, growth, and other attributes. Estimates of forest landscape metrics, such as those describing abundance, size, and shape of forest patches, however, typically are not derived from FIA plot data but from satellite image-based land cover maps. Associating image-based...

Multiple marker abundance profiling: combining selected reaction monitoring and data-dependent acquisition for rapid estimation of organelle abundance in subcellular samples

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hooper, Cornelia M.; Stevens, Tim J.; Saukkonen, Anna

Measuring changes in protein or organelle abundance in the cell is an essential, but challenging aspect of cell biology. Frequently-used methods for determining organelle abundance typically rely on detection of a very few marker proteins, so are unsatisfactory. In silico estimates of protein abundances from publicly available protein spectra can provide useful standard abundance values but contain only data from tissue proteomes, and are not coupled to organelle localization data. A new protein abundance score, the normalized protein abundance scale (NPAS), expands on the number of scored proteins and the scoring accuracy of lower-abundance proteins in Arabidopsis. NPAS was combinedmore » with subcellular protein localization data, facilitating quantitative estimations of organelle abundance during routine experimental procedures. A suite of targeted proteomics markers for subcellular compartment markers was developed, enabling independent verification of in silico estimates for relative organelle abundance. Estimation of relative organelle abundance was found to be reproducible and consistent over a range of tissues and growth conditions. In silico abundance estimations and localization data have been combined into an online tool, multiple marker abundance profiling, available in the SUBA4 toolbox (http://suba.live).« less

Multiple marker abundance profiling: combining selected reaction monitoring and data-dependent acquisition for rapid estimation of organelle abundance in subcellular samples

DOE PAGES

Hooper, Cornelia M.; Stevens, Tim J.; Saukkonen, Anna; ...

2017-10-12

Measuring changes in protein or organelle abundance in the cell is an essential, but challenging aspect of cell biology. Frequently-used methods for determining organelle abundance typically rely on detection of a very few marker proteins, so are unsatisfactory. In silico estimates of protein abundances from publicly available protein spectra can provide useful standard abundance values but contain only data from tissue proteomes, and are not coupled to organelle localization data. A new protein abundance score, the normalized protein abundance scale (NPAS), expands on the number of scored proteins and the scoring accuracy of lower-abundance proteins in Arabidopsis. NPAS was combinedmore » with subcellular protein localization data, facilitating quantitative estimations of organelle abundance during routine experimental procedures. A suite of targeted proteomics markers for subcellular compartment markers was developed, enabling independent verification of in silico estimates for relative organelle abundance. Estimation of relative organelle abundance was found to be reproducible and consistent over a range of tissues and growth conditions. In silico abundance estimations and localization data have been combined into an online tool, multiple marker abundance profiling, available in the SUBA4 toolbox (http://suba.live).« less

Distribution, abundance, and habitat associations of a large bivalve (Panopea generosa) in a eutrophic, fjord estuary

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mcdonald, P. Sean; Essington, Timothy E.; Davis, Jonathan P.; Galloway, Aaron W.E.; Stevick, Bethany C.; Jensen, Gregory C.; VanBlaricom, Glenn R.; Armstrong, David A.

2015-01-01

Marine bivalves are important ecosystem constituents and frequently support valuable fisheries. In many nearshore areas, human disturbance—including declining habitat and water quality—can affect the distribution and abundance of bivalve populations, and complicate ecosystem and fishery management assessments. Infaunal bivalves, in particular, are frequently cryptic and difficult to detect; thus, assessing potential impacts on their populations requires suitable, scalable methods for estimating abundance and distribution. In this study, population size of a common benthic bivalve (the geoduck Panopea generosa) is estimated with a Bayesian habitat-based model fit to scuba and tethered camera data in Hood Canal, a fjord basin in Washington state. Densities declined more than two orders of magnitude along a north—south gradient, concomitant with patterns of deepwater dissolved oxygen, and intensity and duration of seasonal hypoxia. Across the basin, geoducks were most abundant in loose, unconsolidated, sand substrate. The current study demonstrates the utility of using scuba, tethered video, and habitat models to estimate the abundance and distribution of a large infaunal bivalve at a regional (385-km2) scale.

Lincoln estimates of mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) abundance in North America.

PubMed

Alisauskas, Ray T; Arnold, Todd W; Leafloor, James O; Otis, David L; Sedinger, James S

2014-01-01

Estimates of range-wide abundance, harvest, and harvest rate are fundamental for sound inferences about the role of exploitation in the dynamics of free-ranging wildlife populations, but reliability of existing survey methods for abundance estimation is rarely assessed using alternative approaches. North American mallard populations have been surveyed each spring since 1955 using internationally coordinated aerial surveys, but population size can also be estimated with Lincoln's method using banding and harvest data. We estimated late summer population size of adult and juvenile male and female mallards in western, midcontinent, and eastern North America using Lincoln's method of dividing (i) total estimated harvest, [Formula: see text], by estimated harvest rate, [Formula: see text], calculated as (ii) direct band recovery rate, [Formula: see text], divided by the (iii) band reporting rate, [Formula: see text]. Our goal was to compare estimates based on Lincoln's method with traditional estimates based on aerial surveys. Lincoln estimates of adult males and females alive in the period June-September were 4.0 (range: 2.5-5.9), 1.8 (range: 0.6-3.0), and 1.8 (range: 1.3-2.7) times larger than respective aerial survey estimates for the western, midcontinent, and eastern mallard populations, and the two population estimates were only modestly correlated with each other (western: r = 0.70, 1993-2011; midcontinent: r = 0.54, 1961-2011; eastern: r = 0.50, 1993-2011). Higher Lincoln estimates are predictable given that the geographic scope of inference from Lincoln estimates is the entire population range, whereas sampling frames for aerial surveys are incomplete. Although each estimation method has a number of important potential biases, our review suggests that underestimation of total population size by aerial surveys is the most likely explanation. In addition to providing measures of total abundance, Lincoln's method provides estimates of fecundity and population sex ratio and could be used in integrated population models to provide greater insights about population dynamics and management of North American mallards and most other harvested species.

Using simulation to evaluate wildlife survey designs: polar bears and seals in the Chukchi Sea.

PubMed

Conn, Paul B; Moreland, Erin E; Regehr, Eric V; Richmond, Erin L; Cameron, Michael F; Boveng, Peter L

2016-01-01

Logistically demanding and expensive wildlife surveys should ideally yield defensible estimates. Here, we show how simulation can be used to evaluate alternative survey designs for estimating wildlife abundance. Specifically, we evaluate the potential of instrument-based aerial surveys (combining infrared imagery with high-resolution digital photography to detect and identify species) for estimating abundance of polar bears and seals in the Chukchi Sea. We investigate the consequences of different levels of survey effort, flight track allocation and model configuration on bias and precision of abundance estimators. For bearded seals (0.07 animals km(-2)) and ringed seals (1.29 animals km(-2)), we find that eight flights traversing ≈7840 km are sufficient to achieve target precision levels (coefficient of variation (CV)<20%) for a 2.94×10(5) km(2) study area. For polar bears (provisionally, 0.003 animals km(-2)), 12 flights traversing ≈11 760 km resulted in CVs ranging from 28 to 35%. Estimators were relatively unbiased with similar precision over different flight track allocation strategies and estimation models, although some combinations had superior performance. These findings suggest that instrument-based aerial surveys may provide a viable means for monitoring seal and polar bear populations on the surface of the sea ice over large Arctic regions. More broadly, our simulation-based approach to evaluating survey designs can serve as a template for biologists designing their own surveys.

Using simulation to evaluate wildlife survey designs: polar bears and seals in the Chukchi Sea

PubMed Central

Conn, Paul B.; Moreland, Erin E.; Regehr, Eric V.; Richmond, Erin L.; Cameron, Michael F.; Boveng, Peter L.

2016-01-01

Logistically demanding and expensive wildlife surveys should ideally yield defensible estimates. Here, we show how simulation can be used to evaluate alternative survey designs for estimating wildlife abundance. Specifically, we evaluate the potential of instrument-based aerial surveys (combining infrared imagery with high-resolution digital photography to detect and identify species) for estimating abundance of polar bears and seals in the Chukchi Sea. We investigate the consequences of different levels of survey effort, flight track allocation and model configuration on bias and precision of abundance estimators. For bearded seals (0.07 animals km−2) and ringed seals (1.29 animals km−2), we find that eight flights traversing ≈7840 km are sufficient to achieve target precision levels (coefficient of variation (CV)<20%) for a 2.94×105 km2 study area. For polar bears (provisionally, 0.003 animals km−2), 12 flights traversing ≈11 760 km resulted in CVs ranging from 28 to 35%. Estimators were relatively unbiased with similar precision over different flight track allocation strategies and estimation models, although some combinations had superior performance. These findings suggest that instrument-based aerial surveys may provide a viable means for monitoring seal and polar bear populations on the surface of the sea ice over large Arctic regions. More broadly, our simulation-based approach to evaluating survey designs can serve as a template for biologists designing their own surveys. PMID:26909183

Integrating data from multiple sources for insights into demographic processes: Simulation studies and proof of concept for hierarchical change-in-ratio models.

PubMed

Nilsen, Erlend B; Strand, Olav

2018-01-01

We developed a model for estimating demographic rates and population abundance based on multiple data sets revealing information about population age- and sex structure. Such models have previously been described in the literature as change-in-ratio models, but we extend the applicability of the models by i) using time series data allowing the full temporal dynamics to be modelled, by ii) casting the model in an explicit hierarchical modelling framework, and by iii) estimating parameters based on Bayesian inference. Based on sensitivity analyses we conclude that the approach developed here is able to obtain estimates of demographic rate with high precision whenever unbiased data of population structure are available. Our simulations revealed that this was true also when data on population abundance are not available or not included in the modelling framework. Nevertheless, when data on population structure are biased due to different observability of different age- and sex categories this will affect estimates of all demographic rates. Estimates of population size is particularly sensitive to such biases, whereas demographic rates can be relatively precisely estimated even with biased observation data as long as the bias is not severe. We then use the models to estimate demographic rates and population abundance for two Norwegian reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) populations where age-sex data were available for all harvested animals, and where population structure surveys were carried out in early summer (after calving) and late fall (after hunting season), and population size is counted in winter. We found that demographic rates were similar regardless whether we include population count data in the modelling, but that the estimated population size is affected by this decision. This suggest that monitoring programs that focus on population age- and sex structure will benefit from collecting additional data that allow estimation of observability for different age- and sex classes. In addition, our sensitivity analysis suggests that focusing monitoring towards changes in demographic rates might be more feasible than monitoring abundance in many situations where data on population age- and sex structure can be collected.

Inferences about landbird abundance from count data: recent advances and future directions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nichols, J.D.; Thomas, L.; Conn, P.B.; Thomson, David L.; Cooch, Evan G.; Conroy, Michael J.

2009-01-01

We summarize results of a November 2006 workshop dealing with recent research on the estimation of landbird abundance from count data. Our conceptual framework includes a decomposition of the probability of detecting a bird potentially exposed to sampling efforts into four separate probabilities. Primary inference methods are described and include distance sampling, multiple observers, time of detection, and repeated counts. The detection parameters estimated by these different approaches differ, leading to different interpretations of resulting estimates of density and abundance. Simultaneous use of combinations of these different inference approaches can not only lead to increased precision but also provides the ability to decompose components of the detection process. Recent efforts to test the efficacy of these different approaches using natural systems and a new bird radio test system provide sobering conclusions about the ability of observers to detect and localize birds in auditory surveys. Recent research is reported on efforts to deal with such potential sources of error as bird misclassification, measurement error, and density gradients. Methods for inference about spatial and temporal variation in avian abundance are outlined. Discussion topics include opinions about the need to estimate detection probability when drawing inference about avian abundance, methodological recommendations based on the current state of knowledge and suggestions for future research.

Efficacy of time-lapse photography and repeated counts abundance estimation for white-tailed deer populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Keever, Allison; McGowan, Conor P.; Ditchkoff, Stephen S.; Acker, S.A.; Grand, James B.; Newbolt, Chad H.

2017-01-01

Automated cameras have become increasingly common for monitoring wildlife populations and estimating abundance. Most analytical methods, however, fail to account for incomplete and variable detection probabilities, which biases abundance estimates. Methods which do account for detection have not been thoroughly tested, and those that have been tested were compared to other methods of abundance estimation. The goal of this study was to evaluate the accuracy and effectiveness of the N-mixture method, which explicitly incorporates detection probability, to monitor white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) by using camera surveys and a known, marked population to collect data and estimate abundance. Motion-triggered camera surveys were conducted at Auburn University’s deer research facility in 2010. Abundance estimates were generated using N-mixture models and compared to the known number of marked deer in the population. We compared abundance estimates generated from a decreasing number of survey days used in analysis and by time periods (DAY, NIGHT, SUNRISE, SUNSET, CREPUSCULAR, ALL TIMES). Accurate abundance estimates were generated using 24 h of data and nighttime only data. Accuracy of abundance estimates increased with increasing number of survey days until day 5, and there was no improvement with additional data. This suggests that, for our system, 5-day camera surveys conducted at night were adequate for abundance estimation and population monitoring. Further, our study demonstrates that camera surveys and N-mixture models may be a highly effective method for estimation and monitoring of ungulate populations.

Quantifying Elements of a Lunar Economy Based on Resource Needs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greenblatt, J. B.

2017-10-01

We model a simplified lunar economy from human life support, Earth materials consumption, and energy and propulsion requirement estimates, constrained by lunar elemental abundances; estimate likely imports/exports and "gross interplanetary product."

Estimating the abundance of mouse populations of known size: promises and pitfalls of new methods

USGS Publications Warehouse

Conn, P.B.; Arthur, A.D.; Bailey, L.L.; Singleton, G.R.

2006-01-01

Knowledge of animal abundance is fundamental to many ecological studies. Frequently, researchers cannot determine true abundance, and so must estimate it using a method such as mark-recapture or distance sampling. Recent advances in abundance estimation allow one to model heterogeneity with individual covariates or mixture distributions and to derive multimodel abundance estimators that explicitly address uncertainty about which model parameterization best represents truth. Further, it is possible to borrow information on detection probability across several populations when data are sparse. While promising, these methods have not been evaluated using mark?recapture data from populations of known abundance, and thus far have largely been overlooked by ecologists. In this paper, we explored the utility of newly developed mark?recapture methods for estimating the abundance of 12 captive populations of wild house mice (Mus musculus). We found that mark?recapture methods employing individual covariates yielded satisfactory abundance estimates for most populations. In contrast, model sets with heterogeneity formulations consisting solely of mixture distributions did not perform well for several of the populations. We show through simulation that a higher number of trapping occasions would have been necessary to achieve good estimator performance in this case. Finally, we show that simultaneous analysis of data from low abundance populations can yield viable abundance estimates.

Inferences about population dynamics from count data using multi-state models: A comparison to capture-recapture approaches

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Zipkin, Elise; Scott, Sillett T.; Chandler, Richard; Royle, J. Andrew

2014-01-01

Wildlife populations consist of individuals that contribute disproportionately to growth and viability. Understanding a population's spatial and temporal dynamics requires estimates of abundance and demographic rates that account for this heterogeneity. Estimating these quantities can be difficult, requiring years of intensive data collection. Often, this is accomplished through the capture and recapture of individual animals, which is generally only feasible at a limited number of locations. In contrast, N-mixture models allow for the estimation of abundance, and spatial variation in abundance, from count data alone. We extend recently developed multistate, open population N-mixture models, which can additionally estimate demographic rates based on an organism's life history characteristics. In our extension, we develop an approach to account for the case where not all individuals can be assigned to a state during sampling. Using only state-specific count data, we show how our model can be used to estimate local population abundance, as well as density-dependent recruitment rates and state-specific survival. We apply our model to a population of black-throated blue warblers (Setophaga caerulescens) that have been surveyed for 25 years on their breeding grounds at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in New Hampshire, USA. The intensive data collection efforts allow us to compare our estimates to estimates derived from capture–recapture data. Our model performed well in estimating population abundance and density-dependent rates of annual recruitment/immigration. Estimates of local carrying capacity and per capita recruitment of yearlings were consistent with those published in other studies. However, our model moderately underestimated annual survival probability of yearling and adult females and severely underestimates survival probabilities for both of these male stages. The most accurate and precise estimates will necessarily require some amount of intensive data collection efforts (such as capture–recapture). Integrated population models that combine data from both intensive and extensive sources are likely to be the most efficient approach for estimating demographic rates at large spatial and temporal scales.

Estimation of biological parameters of marine organisms using linear and nonlinear acoustic scattering model-based inversion methods.

PubMed

Chu, Dezhang; Lawson, Gareth L; Wiebe, Peter H

2016-05-01

The linear inversion commonly used in fisheries and zooplankton acoustics assumes a constant inversion kernel and ignores the uncertainties associated with the shape and behavior of the scattering targets, as well as other relevant animal parameters. Here, errors of the linear inversion due to uncertainty associated with the inversion kernel are quantified. A scattering model-based nonlinear inversion method is presented that takes into account the nonlinearity of the inverse problem and is able to estimate simultaneously animal abundance and the parameters associated with the scattering model inherent to the kernel. It uses sophisticated scattering models to estimate first, the abundance, and second, the relevant shape and behavioral parameters of the target organisms. Numerical simulations demonstrate that the abundance, size, and behavior (tilt angle) parameters of marine animals (fish or zooplankton) can be accurately inferred from the inversion by using multi-frequency acoustic data. The influence of the singularity and uncertainty in the inversion kernel on the inversion results can be mitigated by examining the singular values for linear inverse problems and employing a non-linear inversion involving a scattering model-based kernel.

Estimating snow leopard population abundance using photography and capture-recapture techniques

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jackson, R.M.; Roe, J.D.; Wangchuk, R.; Hunter, D.O.

2006-01-01

Conservation and management of snow leopards (Uncia uncia) has largely relied on anecdotal evidence and presence-absence data due to their cryptic nature and the difficult terrain they inhabit. These methods generally lack the scientific rigor necessary to accurately estimate population size and monitor trends. We evaluated the use of photography in capture-mark-recapture (CMR) techniques for estimating snow leopard population abundance and density within Hemis National Park, Ladakh, India. We placed infrared camera traps along actively used travel paths, scent-sprayed rocks, and scrape sites within 16- to 30-km2 sampling grids in successive winters during January and March 2003-2004. We used head-on, oblique, and side-view camera configurations to obtain snow leopard photographs at varying body orientations. We calculated snow leopard abundance estimates using the program CAPTURE. We obtained a total of 66 and 49 snow leopard captures resulting in 8.91 and 5.63 individuals per 100 trap-nights during 2003 and 2004, respectively. We identified snow leopards based on the distinct pelage patterns located primarily on the forelimbs, flanks, and dorsal surface of the tail. Capture probabilities ranged from 0.33 to 0.67. Density estimates ranged from 8.49 (SE = 0.22; individuals per 100 km2 in 2003 to 4.45 (SE = 0.16) in 2004. We believe the density disparity between years is attributable to different trap density and placement rather than to an actual decline in population size. Our results suggest that photographic capture-mark-recapture sampling may be a useful tool for monitoring demographic patterns. However, we believe a larger sample size would be necessary for generating a statistically robust estimate of population density and abundance based on CMR models.

Assessing relative abundance and reproductive success of shrubsteppe raptors

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lehman, Robert N.; Carpenter, L.B.; Steenhof, Karen; Kochert, Michael N.

1998-01-01

From 1991-1994, we quantified relative abundance and reproductive success of the Ferruginous Hawk (Buteo regalis), Northern Harrier (Circus cyaneus), Burrowing Owl (Speotytoc unicularia), and Short-eared Owl (Asio flammeus) on the shrubsteppe plateaus (benchlands) in and near the Snake River Birds of Prey National Conservation Area in southwestern Idaho. To assess relative abundance, we searched randomly selected plots using four sampling methods: point counts, line transects, and quadrats of two sizes. On a persampling-effort basis, transects were slightly more effective than point counts and quadrats for locating raptor nests (3.4 pairs detected/100 h of effort vs. 2.2-3.1 pairs). Random sampling using quadrats failed to detect a Short-eared Owl population increase from 1993 to 1994. To evaluate nesting success, we tried to determine reproductive outcome for all nesting attempts located during random, historical, and incidental nest searches. We compared nesting success estimates based on all nesting attempts, on attempts found during incubation, and the Mayfield model. Most pairs used to evaluate success were pairs found incidentally. Visits to historical nesting areas yielded the highest number of pairs per sampling effort (14.6/100 h), but reoccupancy rates for most species decreased through time. Estimates based on all attempts had the highest sample sizes but probably overestimated success for all species except the Ferruginous Hawk. Estimates of success based on nesting attempts found during incubation had the lowest sample sizes. All three methods yielded biased nesting snccess estimates for the Northern Harrier and Short-eared Owl. The estimate based on pairs found during incubation probably provided the least biased estimate for the Burrowing Owl. Assessments of nesting success were hindered by difficulties in confirming egg laying and nesting success for all species except the Ferruginous hawk.

Community assessment techniques and the implications for rarefaction and extrapolation with Hill numbers.

PubMed

Cox, Kieran D; Black, Morgan J; Filip, Natalia; Miller, Matthew R; Mohns, Kayla; Mortimor, James; Freitas, Thaise R; Greiter Loerzer, Raquel; Gerwing, Travis G; Juanes, Francis; Dudas, Sarah E

2017-12-01

Diversity estimates play a key role in ecological assessments. Species richness and abundance are commonly used to generate complex diversity indices that are dependent on the quality of these estimates. As such, there is a long-standing interest in the development of monitoring techniques, their ability to adequately assess species diversity, and the implications for generated indices. To determine the ability of substratum community assessment methods to capture species diversity, we evaluated four methods: photo quadrat, point intercept, random subsampling, and full quadrat assessments. Species density, abundance, richness, Shannon diversity, and Simpson diversity were then calculated for each method. We then conducted a method validation at a subset of locations to serve as an indication for how well each method captured the totality of the diversity present. Density, richness, Shannon diversity, and Simpson diversity estimates varied between methods, despite assessments occurring at the same locations, with photo quadrats detecting the lowest estimates and full quadrat assessments the highest. Abundance estimates were consistent among methods. Sample-based rarefaction and extrapolation curves indicated that differences between Hill numbers (richness, Shannon diversity, and Simpson diversity) were significant in the majority of cases, and coverage-based rarefaction and extrapolation curves confirmed that these dissimilarities were due to differences between the methods, not the sample completeness. Method validation highlighted the inability of the tested methods to capture the totality of the diversity present, while further supporting the notion of extrapolating abundances. Our results highlight the need for consistency across research methods, the advantages of utilizing multiple diversity indices, and potential concerns and considerations when comparing data from multiple sources.

Concepts and practices: Estimating abundance of prey species using hierarchical model-based approaches

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dorazio, Robert; Kumar, N. Samba; Royle, Andy; Gopalaswamy, Arjun M.

2017-01-01

Tigers predominantly prey on large ungulate species, such as sambar (Cervus unicolor), red deer (Cervus elaphus), gaur (Bos gaurus), banteng (Bos javanicus), chital (Axis axis), muntjac (Muntiacus muntjak), wild pig (Sus scrofa), and bearded pig (Sus barbatus). The density of a tiger population is strongly correlated with the density of such prey species (Karanth et al. 2004). In the absence of direct hunting of tigers, abundance of prey in an area is the key determinant of the “carrying capacity” of that area for tigers (Chap. 2). Accurate estimates of prey abundance are often needed to assess the potential number of tigers a conservation area can support.

Sampling designs matching species biology produce accurate and affordable abundance indices

PubMed Central

Farley, Sean; Russell, Gareth J.; Butler, Matthew J.; Selinger, Jeff

2013-01-01

Wildlife biologists often use grid-based designs to sample animals and generate abundance estimates. Although sampling in grids is theoretically sound, in application, the method can be logistically difficult and expensive when sampling elusive species inhabiting extensive areas. These factors make it challenging to sample animals and meet the statistical assumption of all individuals having an equal probability of capture. Violating this assumption biases results. Does an alternative exist? Perhaps by sampling only where resources attract animals (i.e., targeted sampling), it would provide accurate abundance estimates more efficiently and affordably. However, biases from this approach would also arise if individuals have an unequal probability of capture, especially if some failed to visit the sampling area. Since most biological programs are resource limited, and acquiring abundance data drives many conservation and management applications, it becomes imperative to identify economical and informative sampling designs. Therefore, we evaluated abundance estimates generated from grid and targeted sampling designs using simulations based on geographic positioning system (GPS) data from 42 Alaskan brown bears (Ursus arctos). Migratory salmon drew brown bears from the wider landscape, concentrating them at anadromous streams. This provided a scenario for testing the targeted approach. Grid and targeted sampling varied by trap amount, location (traps placed randomly, systematically or by expert opinion), and traps stationary or moved between capture sessions. We began by identifying when to sample, and if bears had equal probability of capture. We compared abundance estimates against seven criteria: bias, precision, accuracy, effort, plus encounter rates, and probabilities of capture and recapture. One grid (49 km2 cells) and one targeted configuration provided the most accurate results. Both placed traps by expert opinion and moved traps between capture sessions, which raised capture probabilities. The grid design was least biased (−10.5%), but imprecise (CV 21.2%), and used most effort (16,100 trap-nights). The targeted configuration was more biased (−17.3%), but most precise (CV 12.3%), with least effort (7,000 trap-nights). Targeted sampling generated encounter rates four times higher, and capture and recapture probabilities 11% and 60% higher than grid sampling, in a sampling frame 88% smaller. Bears had unequal probability of capture with both sampling designs, partly because some bears never had traps available to sample them. Hence, grid and targeted sampling generated abundance indices, not estimates. Overall, targeted sampling provided the most accurate and affordable design to index abundance. Targeted sampling may offer an alternative method to index the abundance of other species inhabiting expansive and inaccessible landscapes elsewhere, provided their attraction to resource concentrations. PMID:24392290

Are Antarctic minke whales unusually abundant because of 20th century whaling?

PubMed

Ruegg, Kristen C; Anderson, Eric C; Scott Baker, C; Vant, Murdoch; Jackson, Jennifer A; Palumbi, Stephen R

2010-01-01

Severe declines in megafauna worldwide illuminate the role of top predators in ecosystem structure. In the Antarctic, the Krill Surplus Hypothesis posits that the killing of more than 2 million large whales led to competitive release for smaller krill-eating species like the Antarctic minke whale. If true, the current size of the Antarctic minke whale population may be unusually high as an indirect result of whaling. Here, we estimate the long-term population size of the Antarctic minke whale prior to whaling by sequencing 11 nuclear genetic markers from 52 modern samples purchased in Japanese meat markets. We use coalescent simulations to explore the potential influence of population substructure and find that even though our samples are drawn from a limited geographic area, our estimate reflects ocean-wide genetic diversity. Using Bayesian estimates of the mutation rate and coalescent-based analyses of genetic diversity across loci, we calculate the long-term population size of the Antarctic minke whale to be 670,000 individuals (95% confidence interval: 374,000-1,150,000). Our estimate of long-term abundance is similar to, or greater than, contemporary abundance estimates, suggesting that managing Antarctic ecosystems under the assumption that Antarctic minke whales are unusually abundant is not warranted.

Abundance of adult horseshoe crabs (Limulus polylphemus) in Delaware Bay estimated from a bay-wide mark-recapture study

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, D.R.; Millard, M.J.; Eyler, S.

2006-01-01

Estimates of the abundance of American horseshoe crabs (Limulus polyphemus) are important to determine egg production and to manage populations for the energetic needs of shorebirds that feed on horseshoe crab eggs. In 2003, over 17,500 horseshoe crabs were tagged and released throughout Delaware Bay, and recaptured crabs came from spawning surveys that were conducted during peak spawning. We used two release cohorts to test for a temporary effect of tagging on spawning behavior and we adjusted the number of releases according to relocation rates from a telemetry study. The abundance estimate was 20 million horseshoe crabs (90% confidence interval: 13-28 million), of which 6.25 million (90% CI: 4.0-8.8 million) were females. The combined harvest rate for Delaware, New Jersey, Virginia, and Maryland in 2003 was 4% (90% CI: 3-6%) of the abundance estimate. Over-wintering of adults in Delaware Bay could explain, in part, differences in estimates from ocean-trawl surveys. Based on fecundity of 88,000 eggs per female, egg production was 5.5??1011 (90% CI: 3.5??1011, 7.7??1011), but egg availability for shorebirds also depended on overlap between horseshoe crab and shorebird migrations, density-dependent bioturbation, and wave-mediated vertical transport.

An evaluation of multipass electrofishing for estimating the abundance of stream-dwelling salmonids

Treesearch

James T. Peterson; Russell F. Thurow; John W. Guzevich

2004-01-01

Failure to estimate capture efficiency, defined as the probability of capturing individual fish, can introduce a systematic error or bias into estimates of fish abundance. We evaluated the efficacy of multipass electrofishing removal methods for estimating fish abundance by comparing estimates of capture efficiency from multipass removal estimates to capture...

Abundance models improve spatial and temporal prioritization of conservation resources.

PubMed

Johnston, Alison; Fink, Daniel; Reynolds, Mark D; Hochachka, Wesley M; Sullivan, Brian L; Bruns, Nicholas E; Hallstein, Eric; Merrifield, Matt S; Matsumoto, Sandi; Kelling, Steve

2015-10-01

Conservation prioritization requires knowledge about organism distribution and density. This information is often inferred from models that estimate the probability of species occurrence rather than from models that estimate species abundance, because abundance data are harder to obtain and model. However, occurrence and abundance may not display similar patterns and therefore development of robust, scalable, abundance models is critical to ensuring that scarce conservation resources are applied where they can have the greatest benefits. Motivated by a dynamic land conservation program, we develop and assess a general method for modeling relative abundance using citizen science monitoring data. Weekly estimates of relative abundance and occurrence were compared for prioritizing times and locations of conservation actions for migratory waterbird species in California, USA. We found that abundance estimates consistently provided better rankings of observed counts than occurrence estimates. Additionally, the relationship between abundance and occurrence was nonlinear and varied by species and season. Across species, locations prioritized by occurrence models had only 10-58% overlap with locations prioritized by abundance models, highlighting that occurrence models will not typically identify the locations of highest abundance that are vital for conservation of populations.

Using counts to simultaneously estimate abundance and detection probabilities in a salamander community

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dodd, C.K.; Dorazio, R.M.

2004-01-01

A critical variable in both ecological and conservation field studies is determining how many individuals of a species are present within a defined sampling area. Labor intensive techniques such as capture-mark-recapture and removal sampling may provide estimates of abundance, but there are many logistical constraints to their widespread application. Many studies on terrestrial and aquatic salamanders use counts as an index of abundance, assuming that detection remains constant while sampling. If this constancy is violated, determination of detection probabilities is critical to the accurate estimation of abundance. Recently, a model was developed that provides a statistical approach that allows abundance and detection to be estimated simultaneously from spatially and temporally replicated counts. We adapted this model to estimate these parameters for salamanders sampled over a six vear period in area-constrained plots in Great Smoky Mountains National Park. Estimates of salamander abundance varied among years, but annual changes in abundance did not vary uniformly among species. Except for one species, abundance estimates were not correlated with site covariates (elevation/soil and water pH, conductivity, air and water temperature). The uncertainty in the estimates was so large as to make correlations ineffectual in predicting which covariates might influence abundance. Detection probabilities also varied among species and sometimes among years for the six species examined. We found such a high degree of variation in our counts and in estimates of detection among species, sites, and years as to cast doubt upon the appropriateness of using count data to monitor population trends using a small number of area-constrained survey plots. Still, the model provided reasonable estimates of abundance that could make it useful in estimating population size from count surveys.

Integrating acoustic telemetry into mark-recapture models to improve the precision of apparent survival and abundance estimates.

PubMed

Dudgeon, Christine L; Pollock, Kenneth H; Braccini, J Matias; Semmens, Jayson M; Barnett, Adam

2015-07-01

Capture-mark-recapture models are useful tools for estimating demographic parameters but often result in low precision when recapture rates are low. Low recapture rates are typical in many study systems including fishing-based studies. Incorporating auxiliary data into the models can improve precision and in some cases enable parameter estimation. Here, we present a novel application of acoustic telemetry for the estimation of apparent survival and abundance within capture-mark-recapture analysis using open population models. Our case study is based on simultaneously collecting longline fishing and acoustic telemetry data for a large mobile apex predator, the broadnose sevengill shark (Notorhynchus cepedianus), at a coastal site in Tasmania, Australia. Cormack-Jolly-Seber models showed that longline data alone had very low recapture rates while acoustic telemetry data for the same time period resulted in at least tenfold higher recapture rates. The apparent survival estimates were similar for the two datasets but the acoustic telemetry data showed much greater precision and enabled apparent survival parameter estimation for one dataset, which was inestimable using fishing data alone. Combined acoustic telemetry and longline data were incorporated into Jolly-Seber models using a Monte Carlo simulation approach. Abundance estimates were comparable to those with longline data only; however, the inclusion of acoustic telemetry data increased precision in the estimates. We conclude that acoustic telemetry is a useful tool for incorporating in capture-mark-recapture studies in the marine environment. Future studies should consider the application of acoustic telemetry within this framework when setting up the study design and sampling program.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Park, J.; Kucharek, H.; Möbius, E.

In this paper we report on a two-year study to estimate the Ne/O abundance ratio in the gas phase of the local interstellar cloud (LIC). Based on the first two years of observations with the Interstellar Boundary Explorer, we determined the fluxes of interstellar neutral (ISN) O and Ne atoms at the Earth's orbit in spring 2009 and 2010. A temporal variation of the Ne/O abundance ratio at the Earth's orbit could be expected due to solar cycle-related effects such as changes of ionization. However, this study shows that there is no significant change in the Ne/O ratio at themore » Earths orbit from 2009 to 2010. We used time-dependent survival probabilities of the ISNs to calculate the Ne/O abundance ratio at the termination shock. Then we estimated the Ne/O abundance ratio in the gas phase of the LIC with the use of filtration factors and the ionization fractions. From our analysis, the Ne/O abundance ratio in the LIC is 0.33 ± 0.07, which is in agreement with the abundance ratio inferred from pickup-ion measurements.« less

RE-EXAMINING HIGH ABUNDANCE SLOAN DIGITAL SKY SURVEY MASS-METALLICITY OUTLIERS: HIGH N/O, EVOLVED WOLF-RAYET GALAXIES?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Berg, Danielle A.; Skillman, Evan D.; Marble, Andrew R., E-mail: berg@astro.umn.edu, E-mail: skillman@astro.umn.edu, E-mail: amarble@nso.edu

We present new MMT spectroscopic observations of four dwarf galaxies representative of a larger sample observed by the Sloan Digital Sky Survey and identified by Peeples et al. as low-mass, high oxygen abundance outliers from the mass-metallicity relation. Peeples showed that these four objects (with metallicity estimates of 8.5 {<=} 12 + log(O/H) {<=} 8.8) have oxygen abundance offsets of 0.4-0.6 dex from the M{sub B} luminosity-metallicity relation. Our new observations extend the wavelength coverage to include the [O II] {lambda}{lambda}3726, 3729 doublet, which adds leverage in oxygen abundance estimates and allows measurements of N/O ratios. All four spectra aremore » low excitation, with relatively high N/O ratios (N/O {approx}> 0.10), each of which tend to bias estimates based on strong emission lines toward high oxygen abundances. These spectra all fall in a regime where the 'standard' strong-line methods for metallicity determinations are not well calibrated either empirically or by photoionization modeling. By comparing our spectra directly to photoionization models, we estimate oxygen abundances in the range of 7.9 {<=} 12 + log (O/H) {<=} 8.4, consistent with the scatter of the mass-metallicity relation. We discuss the physical nature of these galaxies that leads to their unusual spectra (and previous classification as outliers), finding their low excitation, elevated N/O, and strong Balmer absorption are consistent with the properties expected from galaxies evolving past the 'Wolf-Rayet galaxy' phase. We compare our results to the 'main' sample of Peeples and conclude that they are outliers primarily due to enrichment of nitrogen relative to oxygen and not due to unusually high oxygen abundances for their masses or luminosities.« less

Refined Estimates of Carbon Abundances for Carbon-Enhanced Metal-Poor Stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rossi, S.; Placco, V. M.; Beers, T. C.; Marsteller, B.; Kennedy, C. R.; Sivarani, T.; Masseron, T.; Plez, B.

2008-03-01

We present results from a refined set of procedures for estimation of the metallicities ([Fe/H]) and carbon abundance ratios ([C/Fe]) based on a much larger sample of calibration objects (on the order of 500 stars) then were available to Rossi et al. (2005), due to a dramatic increase in the number of stars with measurements obtained from high-resolution analyses in the past few years. We compare results obtained from a new calibration of the KP and GP indices with that obtained from a custom set of spectral synthesis based on MOOG. In cases where the GP index approaches saturation, it is clear that only spectral synthesis achieve reliable results.

Winter bird population studies and project prairie birds for surveying grassland birds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Twedt, D.J.; Hamel, P.B.; Woodrey, M.S.

2008-01-01

We compared 2 survey methods for assessing winter bird communities in temperate grasslands: Winter Bird Population Study surveys are area-searches that have long been used in a variety of habitats whereas Project Prairie Bird surveys employ active-flushing techniques on strip-transects and are intended for use in grasslands. We used both methods to survey birds on 14 herbaceous reforested sites and 9 coastal pine savannas during winter and compared resultant estimates of species richness and relative abundance. These techniques did not yield similar estimates of avian populations. We found Winter Bird Population Studies consistently produced higher estimates of species richness, whereas Project Prairie Birds produced higher estimates of avian abundance for some species. When it is important to identify all species within the winter bird community, Winter Bird Population Studies should be the survey method of choice. If estimates of the abundance of relatively secretive grassland bird species are desired, the use of Project Prairie Birds protocols is warranted. However, we suggest that both survey techniques, as currently employed, are deficient and recommend distance- based survey methods that provide species-specific estimates of detection probabilities be incorporated into these survey methods.

A method for estimating abundance of mobile populations using telemetry and counts of unmarked animals

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clement, Matthew; O'Keefe, Joy M; Walters, Brianne

2015-01-01

While numerous methods exist for estimating abundance when detection is imperfect, these methods may not be appropriate due to logistical difficulties or unrealistic assumptions. In particular, if highly mobile taxa are frequently absent from survey locations, methods that estimate a probability of detection conditional on presence will generate biased abundance estimates. Here, we propose a new estimator for estimating abundance of mobile populations using telemetry and counts of unmarked animals. The estimator assumes that the target population conforms to a fission-fusion grouping pattern, in which the population is divided into groups that frequently change in size and composition. If assumptions are met, it is not necessary to locate all groups in the population to estimate abundance. We derive an estimator, perform a simulation study, conduct a power analysis, and apply the method to field data. The simulation study confirmed that our estimator is asymptotically unbiased with low bias, narrow confidence intervals, and good coverage, given a modest survey effort. The power analysis provided initial guidance on survey effort. When applied to small data sets obtained by radio-tracking Indiana bats, abundance estimates were reasonable, although imprecise. The proposed method has the potential to improve abundance estimates for mobile species that have a fission-fusion social structure, such as Indiana bats, because it does not condition detection on presence at survey locations and because it avoids certain restrictive assumptions.

Using spatiotemporal statistical models to estimate animal abundance and infer ecological dynamics from survey counts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Conn, Paul B.; Johnson, Devin S.; Ver Hoef, Jay M.; Hooten, Mevin B.; London, Joshua M.; Boveng, Peter L.

2015-01-01

Ecologists often fit models to survey data to estimate and explain variation in animal abundance. Such models typically require that animal density remains constant across the landscape where sampling is being conducted, a potentially problematic assumption for animals inhabiting dynamic landscapes or otherwise exhibiting considerable spatiotemporal variation in density. We review several concepts from the burgeoning literature on spatiotemporal statistical models, including the nature of the temporal structure (i.e., descriptive or dynamical) and strategies for dimension reduction to promote computational tractability. We also review several features as they specifically relate to abundance estimation, including boundary conditions, population closure, choice of link function, and extrapolation of predicted relationships to unsampled areas. We then compare a suite of novel and existing spatiotemporal hierarchical models for animal count data that permit animal density to vary over space and time, including formulations motivated by resource selection and allowing for closed populations. We gauge the relative performance (bias, precision, computational demands) of alternative spatiotemporal models when confronted with simulated and real data sets from dynamic animal populations. For the latter, we analyze spotted seal (Phoca largha) counts from an aerial survey of the Bering Sea where the quantity and quality of suitable habitat (sea ice) changed dramatically while surveys were being conducted. Simulation analyses suggested that multiple types of spatiotemporal models provide reasonable inference (low positive bias, high precision) about animal abundance, but have potential for overestimating precision. Analysis of spotted seal data indicated that several model formulations, including those based on a log-Gaussian Cox process, had a tendency to overestimate abundance. By contrast, a model that included a population closure assumption and a scale prior on total abundance produced estimates that largely conformed to our a priori expectation. Although care must be taken to tailor models to match the study population and survey data available, we argue that hierarchical spatiotemporal statistical models represent a powerful way forward for estimating abundance and explaining variation in the distribution of dynamical populations.

Abundance trends and status of the Little Colorado River population of humpback chub

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coggins, L.G.; Pine, William E.; Walters, C.J.; Van Haverbeke, D. R.; Ward, D.; Johnstone, H.C.

2006-01-01

The abundance of the Little Colorado River population of federally listed humpback chub Gila cypha in Grand Canyon has been monitored since the late 1980s by means of catch rate indices and capture-recapture-based abundance estimators. Analyses of data from all sources using various methods are consistent and indicate that the adult population has declined since monitoring began. Intensive tagging led to a high proportion (>80%) of the adult population being marked by the mid-1990s. Analysis of these data using both closed and open abundance estimation models yields results that agree with catch rate indices about the extent of the decline. Survival rates for age-2 and older fish are age dependent but apparently not time dependent. Back-calculation of recruitment using the apparent 1990s population age structure implies periods of higher recruitment in the late 1970s to early 1980s than is now the case. Our analyses indicate that the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service recovery criterion of stable abundance is not being met for this population. Also, there is a critical need to develop new abundance indexing and tagging methods so that early, reliable, and rapid estimates of humpback chub recruitment can be obtained to evaluate population responses to management actions designed to facilitate the restoration of Colorado River native fish communities. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2006.

EMSAR: estimation of transcript abundance from RNA-seq data by mappability-based segmentation and reclustering.

PubMed

Lee, Soohyun; Seo, Chae Hwa; Alver, Burak Han; Lee, Sanghyuk; Park, Peter J

2015-09-03

RNA-seq has been widely used for genome-wide expression profiling. RNA-seq data typically consists of tens of millions of short sequenced reads from different transcripts. However, due to sequence similarity among genes and among isoforms, the source of a given read is often ambiguous. Existing approaches for estimating expression levels from RNA-seq reads tend to compromise between accuracy and computational cost. We introduce a new approach for quantifying transcript abundance from RNA-seq data. EMSAR (Estimation by Mappability-based Segmentation And Reclustering) groups reads according to the set of transcripts to which they are mapped and finds maximum likelihood estimates using a joint Poisson model for each optimal set of segments of transcripts. The method uses nearly all mapped reads, including those mapped to multiple genes. With an efficient transcriptome indexing based on modified suffix arrays, EMSAR minimizes the use of CPU time and memory while achieving accuracy comparable to the best existing methods. EMSAR is a method for quantifying transcripts from RNA-seq data with high accuracy and low computational cost. EMSAR is available at https://github.com/parklab/emsar.

Optimal sampling design for estimating spatial distribution and abundance of a freshwater mussel population

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pooler, P.S.; Smith, D.R.

2005-01-01

We compared the ability of simple random sampling (SRS) and a variety of systematic sampling (SYS) designs to estimate abundance, quantify spatial clustering, and predict spatial distribution of freshwater mussels. Sampling simulations were conducted using data obtained from a census of freshwater mussels in a 40 X 33 m section of the Cacapon River near Capon Bridge, West Virginia, and from a simulated spatially random population generated to have the same abundance as the real population. Sampling units that were 0.25 m 2 gave more accurate and precise abundance estimates and generally better spatial predictions than 1-m2 sampling units. Systematic sampling with ???2 random starts was more efficient than SRS. Estimates of abundance based on SYS were more accurate when the distance between sampling units across the stream was less than or equal to the distance between sampling units along the stream. Three measures for quantifying spatial clustering were examined: Hopkins Statistic, the Clumping Index, and Morisita's Index. Morisita's Index was the most reliable, and the Hopkins Statistic was prone to false rejection of complete spatial randomness. SYS designs with units spaced equally across and up stream provided the most accurate predictions when estimating the spatial distribution by kriging. Our research indicates that SYS designs with sampling units equally spaced both across and along the stream would be appropriate for sampling freshwater mussels even if no information about the true underlying spatial distribution of the population were available to guide the design choice. ?? 2005 by The North American Benthological Society.

Mark-resight abundance estimation under incomplete identification of marked individuals

USGS Publications Warehouse

McClintock, Brett T.; Hill, Jason M.; Fritz, Lowell; Chumbley, Kathryn; Luxa, Katie; Diefenbach, Duane R.

2014-01-01

Often less expensive and less invasive than conventional mark–recapture, so-called 'mark-resight' methods are popular in the estimation of population abundance. These methods are most often applied when a subset of the population of interest is marked (naturally or artificially), and non-invasive sighting data can be simultaneously collected for both marked and unmarked individuals. However, it can often be difficult to identify marked individuals with certainty during resighting surveys, and incomplete identification of marked individuals is potentially a major source of bias in mark-resight abundance estimators. Previously proposed solutions are ad hoc and will tend to underperform unless marked individual identification rates are relatively high (>90%) or individual sighting heterogeneity is negligible.Based on a complete data likelihood, we present an approach that properly accounts for uncertainty in marked individual detection histories when incomplete identifications occur. The models allow for individual heterogeneity in detection, sampling with (e.g. Poisson) or without (e.g. Bernoulli) replacement, and an unknown number of marked individuals. Using a custom Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to facilitate Bayesian inference, we demonstrate these models using two example data sets and investigate their properties via simulation experiments.We estimate abundance for grassland sparrow populations in Pennsylvania, USA when sampling was conducted with replacement and the number of marked individuals was either known or unknown. To increase marked individual identification probabilities, extensive territory mapping was used to assign incomplete identifications to individuals based on location. Despite marked individual identification probabilities as low as 67% in the absence of this territorial mapping procedure, we generally found little return (or need) for this time-consuming investment when using our proposed approach. We also estimate rookery abundance from Alaskan Steller sea lion counts when sampling was conducted without replacement, the number of marked individuals was unknown, and individual heterogeneity was suspected as non-negligible.In terms of estimator performance, our simulation experiments and examples demonstrated advantages of our proposed approach over previous methods, particularly when marked individual identification probabilities are low and individual heterogeneity levels are high. Our methodology can also reduce field effort requirements for marked individual identification, thus, allowing potential investment into additional marking events or resighting surveys.

Estimates of brown bear abundance on Kodiak Island, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barnes, V.G.; Smith, R.B.

1998-01-01

During 1987-94 we used capture-mark-resight (CMR) methodology and rates of observation (bears/hour and bears/100 km2) of unmarked brown bears (Ursus arctos middendorffi) during intensive aerial surveys (IAS) to estimate abundance of brown bears on Kodiak Island and to establish a baseline for monitoring population trends. CMR estimates were obtained on 3 study areas; density ranged from 216-234 bears/1,000 km2 for independent animals and 292-342 bears/1,000 km2 including dependent offspring. Rates of observation during IAS ranged from 1.4-5.4 independent bears/hour and 2.9-18.0 independent bears/100 km2. Density estimates for independent bears on each IAS area were obtained by dividing mean number of bears observed during replicate surveys by estimated sightability (based on CMR-derived sightability in areas with similar habitat. Brown bear abundance on 21 geographic units of Kodiak Island and 3 nearby islands was estimated by extrapolation from CMR and IAS data using comparisons of habitat characteristics and sport harvest information. Population estimates for independent and total bears were 1,800 and 2,600. The CMR and IAS procedures offer alternative means, depending on management objective and available resources, of measuring population trend of brown bears on Kodiak Island.

Inferences about population dynamics from count data using multistate models: a comparison to capture–recapture approaches

PubMed Central

Zipkin, Elise F; Sillett, T Scott; Grant, Evan H Campbell; Chandler, Richard B; Royle, J Andrew

2014-01-01

Wildlife populations consist of individuals that contribute disproportionately to growth and viability. Understanding a population's spatial and temporal dynamics requires estimates of abundance and demographic rates that account for this heterogeneity. Estimating these quantities can be difficult, requiring years of intensive data collection. Often, this is accomplished through the capture and recapture of individual animals, which is generally only feasible at a limited number of locations. In contrast, N-mixture models allow for the estimation of abundance, and spatial variation in abundance, from count data alone. We extend recently developed multistate, open population N-mixture models, which can additionally estimate demographic rates based on an organism's life history characteristics. In our extension, we develop an approach to account for the case where not all individuals can be assigned to a state during sampling. Using only state-specific count data, we show how our model can be used to estimate local population abundance, as well as density-dependent recruitment rates and state-specific survival. We apply our model to a population of black-throated blue warblers (Setophaga caerulescens) that have been surveyed for 25 years on their breeding grounds at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in New Hampshire, USA. The intensive data collection efforts allow us to compare our estimates to estimates derived from capture–recapture data. Our model performed well in estimating population abundance and density-dependent rates of annual recruitment/immigration. Estimates of local carrying capacity and per capita recruitment of yearlings were consistent with those published in other studies. However, our model moderately underestimated annual survival probability of yearling and adult females and severely underestimates survival probabilities for both of these male stages. The most accurate and precise estimates will necessarily require some amount of intensive data collection efforts (such as capture–recapture). Integrated population models that combine data from both intensive and extensive sources are likely to be the most efficient approach for estimating demographic rates at large spatial and temporal scales. PMID:24634726

Estimating parasitic sea lamprey abundance in Lake Huron from heterogenous data sources

USGS Publications Warehouse

Young, Robert J.; Jones, Michael L.; Bence, James R.; McDonald, Rodney B.; Mullett, Katherine M.; Bergstedt, Roger A.

2003-01-01

The Great Lakes Fishery Commission uses time series of transformer, parasitic, and spawning population estimates to evaluate the effectiveness of its sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) control program. This study used an inverse variance weighting method to integrate Lake Huron sea lamprey population estimates derived from two estimation procedures: 1) prediction of the lake-wide spawning population from a regression model based on stream size and, 2) whole-lake mark and recapture estimates. In addition, we used a re-sampling procedure to evaluate the effect of trading off sampling effort between the regression and mark-recapture models. Population estimates derived from the regression model ranged from 132,000 to 377,000 while mark-recapture estimates of marked recently metamorphosed juveniles and parasitic sea lampreys ranged from 536,000 to 634,000 and 484,000 to 1,608,000, respectively. The precision of the estimates varied greatly among estimation procedures and years. The integrated estimate of the mark-recapture and spawner regression procedures ranged from 252,000 to 702,000 transformers. The re-sampling procedure indicated that the regression model is more sensitive to reduction in sampling effort than the mark-recapture model. Reliance on either the regression or mark-recapture model alone could produce misleading estimates of abundance of sea lampreys and the effect of the control program on sea lamprey abundance. These analyses indicate that the precision of the lakewide population estimate can be maximized by re-allocating sampling effort from marking sea lampreys to trapping additional streams.

Estimation of tiger densities in India using photographic captures and recaptures

USGS Publications Warehouse

Karanth, U.; Nichols, J.D.

1998-01-01

Previously applied methods for estimating tiger (Panthera tigris) abundance using total counts based on tracks have proved unreliable. In this paper we use a field method proposed by Karanth (1995), combining camera-trap photography to identify individual tigers based on stripe patterns, with capture-recapture estimators. We developed a sampling design for camera-trapping and used the approach to estimate tiger population size and density in four representative tiger habitats in different parts of India. The field method worked well and provided data suitable for analysis using closed capture-recapture models. The results suggest the potential for applying this methodology for estimating abundances, survival rates and other population parameters in tigers and other low density, secretive animal species with distinctive coat patterns or other external markings. Estimated probabilities of photo-capturing tigers present in the study sites ranged from 0.75 - 1.00. The estimated mean tiger densities ranged from 4.1 (SE hat= 1.31) to 11.7 (SE hat= 1.93) tigers/100 km2. The results support the previous suggestions of Karanth and Sunquist (1995) that densities of tigers and other large felids may be primarily determined by prey community structure at a given site.

Tungsten Abundances in Hawaiian Picrites: Implications for the Mantle Sources of Hawaiian Volcanoes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ireland, T. J.; Arevalo, R. D.; Walker, R. J.; McDonough, W. F.

2008-12-01

Tungsten abundances have been measured in a suite of Hawaiian picrites (MgO >13 wt.%) from nine Hawaiian shield volcanoes (Mauna Kea, Mauna Loa, Hualalai, Loihi, Koolau, Kilauea, Kohala, Lanai and Molokai). Tungsten concentrations in the parental melts for these volcanoes have been estimated via the intersection of linear W-MgO trends with the putative MgO content of the parental melt (~16 wt.%). Tungsten behaves as a highly incompatible trace element in mafic to ultramafic systems; thus, given an independent assessment of the degree of partial melting for each volcanic center, the W abundances in their mantle sources can be determined. The mantle sources for Hualalai, Kilauea, Kohala and Loihi have non- uniform estimated W abundances of 11, 13, 16 and 27 ng/g, respectively, giving an average source abundance of 17±5 ng/g. This average source abundance is nearly six times more enriched than Depleted MORB Mantle (DMM: 3.0±2.3 ng/g) and slightly elevated relative to the Bulk Silicate Earth (BSE: 13±10 ng/g). The relatively high abundances of W in the Hawaiian sources relative to the DMM can potentially be explained as a consequence of crustal recycling. For example, incorporation of 30% oceanic crust (30 ng/g W), including 3% sediment (1500 ng/g W), into a DMM source could create the W enrichment observed in the Loihi source, consistent with estimates from earlier models based on other trace elements and isotope systems. The Hualalai source, however, has also been suggested to contain a substantial recycled component, as implied by similarly radiogenic 187Os/188Os, yet this source has the lowest estimated W abundance among the volcanic centers studied. The conflict between these results may: 1) reflect chemical differences among recycled components, 2) indicate a more complex history for Hualalai samples, e.g. involvement of a melt percolation component, or 3) implicate other sources of W.

Distribution and abundance of American eels in the White Oak River estuary, North Carolina

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hightower, J.E.; Nesnow, C.

2006-01-01

Apparent widespread declines in abundance of Anguilla rostrata (American eel) have reinforced the need for information regarding its life history and status. We used commercial eel pots and crab (peeler) pots to examine the distribution, condition, and abundance of American eels within the White Oak River estuary, NC, during summers of 2002-2003. Catch of American eels per overnight set was 0.35 (SE = 0.045) in 2002 and 0.49 (SE = 0.044) in 2003. There was not a significant linear relationship between catch per set and depth in 2002 (P = 0.31, depth range 0.9-3.4 m) or 2003 (P = 0.18, depth range 0.6-3.4 m). American eels from the White Oak River were in good condition, based on the slope of a length-weight relationship (3.41) compared to the median slope (3.15) from other systems. Estimates of population density from grid sampling in 2003 (300 mm and larger: 4.0-13.8 per ha) were similar to estimates for the Hudson River estuary, but substantially less than estimates from other (smaller) systems including tidal creeks within estuaries. Density estimates from coastal waters can be used with harvest records to examine whether overfishing has contributed to the recent apparent declines in American eel abundance.

Efficient estimation of abundance for patchily distributed populations via two-phase, adaptive sampling.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Conroy, M.J.; Runge, J.P.; Barker, R.J.; Schofield, M.R.; Fonnesbeck, C.J.

2008-01-01

Many organisms are patchily distributed, with some patches occupied at high density, others at lower densities, and others not occupied. Estimation of overall abundance can be difficult and is inefficient via intensive approaches such as capture-mark-recapture (CMR) or distance sampling. We propose a two-phase sampling scheme and model in a Bayesian framework to estimate abundance for patchily distributed populations. In the first phase, occupancy is estimated by binomial detection samples taken on all selected sites, where selection may be of all sites available, or a random sample of sites. Detection can be by visual surveys, detection of sign, physical captures, or other approach. At the second phase, if a detection threshold is achieved, CMR or other intensive sampling is conducted via standard procedures (grids or webs) to estimate abundance. Detection and CMR data are then used in a joint likelihood to model probability of detection in the occupancy sample via an abundance-detection model. CMR modeling is used to estimate abundance for the abundance-detection relationship, which in turn is used to predict abundance at the remaining sites, where only detection data are collected. We present a full Bayesian modeling treatment of this problem, in which posterior inference on abundance and other parameters (detection, capture probability) is obtained under a variety of assumptions about spatial and individual sources of heterogeneity. We apply the approach to abundance estimation for two species of voles (Microtus spp.) in Montana, USA. We also use a simulation study to evaluate the frequentist properties of our procedure given known patterns in abundance and detection among sites as well as design criteria. For most population characteristics and designs considered, bias and mean-square error (MSE) were low, and coverage of true parameter values by Bayesian credibility intervals was near nominal. Our two-phase, adaptive approach allows efficient estimation of abundance of rare and patchily distributed species and is particularly appropriate when sampling in all patches is impossible, but a global estimate of abundance is required.

Estimating time-based instantaneous total mortality rate based on the age-structured abundance index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yingbin; Jiao, Yan

2015-05-01

The instantaneous total mortality rate ( Z) of a fish population is one of the important parameters in fisheries stock assessment. The estimation of Z is crucial to fish population dynamics analysis, abundance and catch forecast, and fisheries management. A catch curve-based method for estimating time-based Z and its change trend from catch per unit effort (CPUE) data of multiple cohorts is developed. Unlike the traditional catch-curve method, the method developed here does not need the assumption of constant Z throughout the time, but the Z values in n continuous years are assumed constant, and then the Z values in different n continuous years are estimated using the age-based CPUE data within these years. The results of the simulation analyses show that the trends of the estimated time-based Z are consistent with the trends of the true Z, and the estimated rates of change from this approach are close to the true change rates (the relative differences between the change rates of the estimated Z and the true Z are smaller than 10%). Variations of both Z and recruitment can affect the estimates of Z value and the trend of Z. The most appropriate value of n can be different given the effects of different factors. Therefore, the appropriate value of n for different fisheries should be determined through a simulation analysis as we demonstrated in this study. Further analyses suggested that selectivity and age estimation are also two factors that can affect the estimated Z values if there is error in either of them, but the estimated change rates of Z are still close to the true change rates. We also applied this approach to the Atlantic cod ( Gadus morhua) fishery of eastern Newfoundland and Labrador from 1983 to 1997, and obtained reasonable estimates of time-based Z.

Estimating Lion Abundance using N-mixture Models for Social Species

PubMed Central

Belant, Jerrold L.; Bled, Florent; Wilton, Clay M.; Fyumagwa, Robert; Mwampeta, Stanslaus B.; Beyer, Dean E.

2016-01-01

Declining populations of large carnivores worldwide, and the complexities of managing human-carnivore conflicts, require accurate population estimates of large carnivores to promote their long-term persistence through well-informed management We used N-mixture models to estimate lion (Panthera leo) abundance from call-in and track surveys in southeastern Serengeti National Park, Tanzania. Because of potential habituation to broadcasted calls and social behavior, we developed a hierarchical observation process within the N-mixture model conditioning lion detectability on their group response to call-ins and individual detection probabilities. We estimated 270 lions (95% credible interval = 170–551) using call-ins but were unable to estimate lion abundance from track data. We found a weak negative relationship between predicted track density and predicted lion abundance from the call-in surveys. Luminosity was negatively correlated with individual detection probability during call-in surveys. Lion abundance and track density were influenced by landcover, but direction of the corresponding effects were undetermined. N-mixture models allowed us to incorporate multiple parameters (e.g., landcover, luminosity, observer effect) influencing lion abundance and probability of detection directly into abundance estimates. We suggest that N-mixture models employing a hierarchical observation process can be used to estimate abundance of other social, herding, and grouping species. PMID:27786283

Estimating Lion Abundance using N-mixture Models for Social Species.

PubMed

Belant, Jerrold L; Bled, Florent; Wilton, Clay M; Fyumagwa, Robert; Mwampeta, Stanslaus B; Beyer, Dean E

2016-10-27

Declining populations of large carnivores worldwide, and the complexities of managing human-carnivore conflicts, require accurate population estimates of large carnivores to promote their long-term persistence through well-informed management We used N-mixture models to estimate lion (Panthera leo) abundance from call-in and track surveys in southeastern Serengeti National Park, Tanzania. Because of potential habituation to broadcasted calls and social behavior, we developed a hierarchical observation process within the N-mixture model conditioning lion detectability on their group response to call-ins and individual detection probabilities. We estimated 270 lions (95% credible interval = 170-551) using call-ins but were unable to estimate lion abundance from track data. We found a weak negative relationship between predicted track density and predicted lion abundance from the call-in surveys. Luminosity was negatively correlated with individual detection probability during call-in surveys. Lion abundance and track density were influenced by landcover, but direction of the corresponding effects were undetermined. N-mixture models allowed us to incorporate multiple parameters (e.g., landcover, luminosity, observer effect) influencing lion abundance and probability of detection directly into abundance estimates. We suggest that N-mixture models employing a hierarchical observation process can be used to estimate abundance of other social, herding, and grouping species.

Age-structured mark-recapture analysis: A virtual-population-analysis-based model for analyzing age-structured capture-recapture data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coggins, L.G.; Pine, William E.; Walters, C.J.; Martell, S.J.D.

2006-01-01

We present a new model to estimate capture probabilities, survival, abundance, and recruitment using traditional Jolly-Seber capture-recapture methods within a standard fisheries virtual population analysis framework. This approach compares the numbers of marked and unmarked fish at age captured in each year of sampling with predictions based on estimated vulnerabilities and abundance in a likelihood function. Recruitment to the earliest age at which fish can be tagged is estimated by using a virtual population analysis method to back-calculate the expected numbers of unmarked fish at risk of capture. By using information from both marked and unmarked animals in a standard fisheries age structure framework, this approach is well suited to the sparse data situations common in long-term capture-recapture programs with variable sampling effort. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2006.

Pre-Whaling Genetic Diversity and Population Ecology in Eastern Pacific Gray Whales: Insights from Ancient DNA and Stable Isotopes

PubMed Central

Alter, S. Elizabeth; Newsome, Seth D.; Palumbi, Stephen R.

2012-01-01

Commercial whaling decimated many whale populations, including the eastern Pacific gray whale, but little is known about how population dynamics or ecology differed prior to these removals. Of particular interest is the possibility of a large population decline prior to whaling, as such a decline could explain the ∼5-fold difference between genetic estimates of prior abundance and estimates based on historical records. We analyzed genetic (mitochondrial control region) and isotopic information from modern and prehistoric gray whales using serial coalescent simulations and Bayesian skyline analyses to test for a pre-whaling decline and to examine prehistoric genetic diversity, population dynamics and ecology. Simulations demonstrate that significant genetic differences observed between ancient and modern samples could be caused by a large, recent population bottleneck, roughly concurrent with commercial whaling. Stable isotopes show minimal differences between modern and ancient gray whale foraging ecology. Using rejection-based Approximate Bayesian Computation, we estimate the size of the population bottleneck at its minimum abundance and the pre-bottleneck abundance. Our results agree with previous genetic studies suggesting the historical size of the eastern gray whale population was roughly three to five times its current size. PMID:22590499

Covariation of Peptide Abundances Accurately Reflects Protein Concentration Differences*

PubMed Central

Pirmoradian, Mohammad

2017-01-01

Most implementations of mass spectrometry-based proteomics involve enzymatic digestion of proteins, expanding the analysis to multiple proteolytic peptides for each protein. Currently, there is no consensus of how to summarize peptides' abundances to protein concentrations, and such efforts are complicated by the fact that error control normally is applied to the identification process, and do not directly control errors linking peptide abundance measures to protein concentration. Peptides resulting from suboptimal digestion or being partially modified are not representative of the protein concentration. Without a mechanism to remove such unrepresentative peptides, their abundance adversely impacts the estimation of their protein's concentration. Here, we present a relative quantification approach, Diffacto, that applies factor analysis to extract the covariation of peptides' abundances. The method enables a weighted geometrical average summarization and automatic elimination of incoherent peptides. We demonstrate, based on a set of controlled label-free experiments using standard mixtures of proteins, that the covariation structure extracted by the factor analysis accurately reflects protein concentrations. In the 1% peptide-spectrum match-level FDR data set, as many as 11% of the peptides have abundance differences incoherent with the other peptides attributed to the same protein. If not controlled, such contradicting peptide abundance have a severe impact on protein quantifications. When adding the quantities of each protein's three most abundant peptides, we note as many as 14% of the proteins being estimated as having a negative correlation with their actual concentration differences between samples. Diffacto reduced the amount of such obviously incorrectly quantified proteins to 1.6%. Furthermore, by analyzing clinical data sets from two breast cancer studies, our method revealed the persistent proteomic signatures linked to three subtypes of breast cancer. We conclude that Diffacto can facilitate the interpretation and enhance the utility of most types of proteomics data. PMID:28302922

Dynamic relationships between body size, species richness, abundance, and energy use in a shallow marine epibenthic faunal community

PubMed Central

Labra, Fabio A; Hernández-Miranda, Eduardo; Quiñones, Renato A

2015-01-01

We study the temporal variation in the empirical relationships among body size (S), species richness (R), and abundance (A) in a shallow marine epibenthic faunal community in Coliumo Bay, Chile. We also extend previous analyses by calculating individual energy use (E) and test whether its bivariate and trivariate relationships with S and R are in agreement with expectations derived from the energetic equivalence rule. Carnivorous and scavenger species representing over 95% of sample abundance and biomass were studied. For each individual, body size (g) was measured and E was estimated following published allometric relationships. Data for each sample were tabulated into exponential body size bins, comparing species-averaged values with individual-based estimates which allow species to potentially occupy multiple size classes. For individual-based data, both the number of individuals and species across body size classes are fit by a Weibull function rather than by a power law scaling. Species richness is also a power law of the number of individuals. Energy use shows a piecewise scaling relationship with body size, with energetic equivalence holding true only for size classes above the modal abundance class. Species-based data showed either weak linear or no significant patterns, likely due to the decrease in the number of data points across body size classes. Hence, for individual-based size spectra, the SRA relationship seems to be general despite seasonal forcing and strong disturbances in Coliumo Bay. The unimodal abundance distribution results in a piecewise energy scaling relationship, with small individuals showing a positive scaling and large individuals showing energetic equivalence. Hence, strict energetic equivalence should not be expected for unimodal abundance distributions. On the other hand, while species-based data do not show unimodal SRA relationships, energy use across body size classes did not show significant trends, supporting energetic equivalence. PMID:25691966

Whale, Whale, Everywhere: Increasing Abundance of Western South Atlantic Humpback Whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) in Their Wintering Grounds

PubMed Central

Danilewicz, Daniel; Andriolo, Artur; Secchi, Eduardo R.; Zerbini, Alexandre N.

2016-01-01

The western South Atlantic (WSA) humpback whale population inhabits the coast of Brazil during the breeding and calving season in winter and spring. This population was depleted to near extinction by whaling in the mid-twentieth century. Despite recent signs of recovery, increasing coastal and offshore development pose potential threats to these animals. Therefore, continuous monitoring is needed to assess population status and support conservation strategies. The aim of this work was to present ship-based line-transect estimates of abundance for humpback whales in their WSA breeding ground and to investigate potential changes in population size. Two cruises surveyed the coast of Brazil during August-September in 2008 and 2012. The area surveyed in 2008 corresponded to the currently recognized population breeding area; effort in 2012 was limited due to unfavorable weather conditions. WSA humpback whale population size in 2008 was estimated at 16,410 (CV = 0.228, 95% CI = 10,563–25,495) animals. In order to compare abundance between 2008 and 2012, estimates for the area between Salvador and Cabo Frio, which were consistently covered in the two years, were computed at 15,332 (CV = 0.243, 95% CI = 9,595–24,500) and 19,429 (CV = 0.101, 95% CI = 15,958–23,654) whales, respectively. The difference in the two estimates represents an increase of 26.7% in whale numbers in a 4-year period. The estimated abundance for 2008 is considered the most robust for the WSA humpback whale population because the ship survey conducted in that year minimized bias from various sources. Results presented here indicate that in 2008, the WSA humpback whale population was at least around 60% of its estimated pre-modern whaling abundance and that it may recover to its pre-exploitation size sooner than previously estimated. PMID:27736958

Whale, Whale, Everywhere: Increasing Abundance of Western South Atlantic Humpback Whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) in Their Wintering Grounds.

PubMed

Bortolotto, Guilherme A; Danilewicz, Daniel; Andriolo, Artur; Secchi, Eduardo R; Zerbini, Alexandre N

2016-01-01

The western South Atlantic (WSA) humpback whale population inhabits the coast of Brazil during the breeding and calving season in winter and spring. This population was depleted to near extinction by whaling in the mid-twentieth century. Despite recent signs of recovery, increasing coastal and offshore development pose potential threats to these animals. Therefore, continuous monitoring is needed to assess population status and support conservation strategies. The aim of this work was to present ship-based line-transect estimates of abundance for humpback whales in their WSA breeding ground and to investigate potential changes in population size. Two cruises surveyed the coast of Brazil during August-September in 2008 and 2012. The area surveyed in 2008 corresponded to the currently recognized population breeding area; effort in 2012 was limited due to unfavorable weather conditions. WSA humpback whale population size in 2008 was estimated at 16,410 (CV = 0.228, 95% CI = 10,563-25,495) animals. In order to compare abundance between 2008 and 2012, estimates for the area between Salvador and Cabo Frio, which were consistently covered in the two years, were computed at 15,332 (CV = 0.243, 95% CI = 9,595-24,500) and 19,429 (CV = 0.101, 95% CI = 15,958-23,654) whales, respectively. The difference in the two estimates represents an increase of 26.7% in whale numbers in a 4-year period. The estimated abundance for 2008 is considered the most robust for the WSA humpback whale population because the ship survey conducted in that year minimized bias from various sources. Results presented here indicate that in 2008, the WSA humpback whale population was at least around 60% of its estimated pre-modern whaling abundance and that it may recover to its pre-exploitation size sooner than previously estimated.

Monitoring gray wolf populations using multiple survey methods

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ausband, David E.; Rich, Lindsey N.; Glenn, Elizabeth M.; Mitchell, Michael S.; Zager, Pete; Miller, David A.W.; Waits, Lisette P.; Ackerman, Bruce B.; Mack, Curt M.

2013-01-01

The behavioral patterns and large territories of large carnivores make them challenging to monitor. Occupancy modeling provides a framework for monitoring population dynamics and distribution of territorial carnivores. We combined data from hunter surveys, howling and sign surveys conducted at predicted wolf rendezvous sites, and locations of radiocollared wolves to model occupancy and estimate the number of gray wolf (Canis lupus) packs and individuals in Idaho during 2009 and 2010. We explicitly accounted for potential misidentification of occupied cells (i.e., false positives) using an extension of the multi-state occupancy framework. We found agreement between model predictions and distribution and estimates of number of wolf packs and individual wolves reported by Idaho Department of Fish and Game and Nez Perce Tribe from intensive radiotelemetry-based monitoring. Estimates of individual wolves from occupancy models that excluded data from radiocollared wolves were within an average of 12.0% (SD = 6.0) of existing statewide minimum counts. Models using only hunter survey data generally estimated the lowest abundance, whereas models using all data generally provided the highest estimates of abundance, although only marginally higher. Precision across approaches ranged from 14% to 28% of mean estimates and models that used all data streams generally provided the most precise estimates. We demonstrated that an occupancy model based on different survey methods can yield estimates of the number and distribution of wolf packs and individual wolf abundance with reasonable measures of precision. Assumptions of the approach including that average territory size is known, average pack size is known, and territories do not overlap, must be evaluated periodically using independent field data to ensure occupancy estimates remain reliable. Use of multiple survey methods helps to ensure that occupancy estimates are robust to weaknesses or changes in any 1 survey method. Occupancy modeling may be useful for standardizing estimates across large landscapes, even if survey methods differ across regions, allowing for inferences about broad-scale population dynamics of wolves.

Using paired visual and passive acoustic surveys to estimate passive acoustic detection parameters for harbor porpoise abundance estimates.

PubMed

Jacobson, Eiren K; Forney, Karin A; Barlow, Jay

2017-01-01

Passive acoustic monitoring is a promising approach for monitoring long-term trends in harbor porpoise (Phocoena phocoena) abundance. Before passive acoustic monitoring can be implemented to estimate harbor porpoise abundance, information about the detectability of harbor porpoise is needed to convert recorded numbers of echolocation clicks to harbor porpoise densities. In the present study, paired data from a grid of nine passive acoustic click detectors (C-PODs, Chelonia Ltd., United Kingdom) and three days of simultaneous aerial line-transect visual surveys were collected over a 370 km 2 study area. The focus of the study was estimating the effective detection area of the passive acoustic sensors, which was defined as the product of the sound production rate of individual animals and the area within which those sounds are detected by the passive acoustic sensors. Visually estimated porpoise densities were used as informative priors in a Bayesian model to solve for the effective detection area for individual harbor porpoises. This model-based approach resulted in a posterior distribution of the effective detection area of individual harbor porpoises consistent with previously published values. This technique is a viable alternative for estimating the effective detection area of passive acoustic sensors when other experimental approaches are not feasible.

Empirically based models of oceanographic and biological influences on Pacific Herring recruitment in Prince William Sound

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sewall, Fletcher; Norcross, Brenda; Mueter, Franz; Heintz, Ron

2018-01-01

Abundances of small pelagic fish can change dramatically over time and are difficult to forecast, partially due to variable numbers of fish that annually mature and recruit to the spawning population. Recruitment strength of age-3 Pacific Herring (Clupea pallasii) in Prince William Sound, Alaska, is estimated in an age-structured model framework as a function of spawning stock biomass via a Ricker stock-recruitment model, and forecasted using the 10-year median recruitment estimates. However, stock size has little influence on subsequent numbers of recruits. This study evaluated the usefulness of herring recruitment models that incorporate oceanographic and biological variables. Results indicated herring recruitment estimates were significantly improved by modifying the standard Ricker model to include an index of young-of-the-year (YOY) Walleye Pollock (Gadus chalcogrammus) abundance. The positive relationship between herring recruits-per-spawner and YOY pollock abundance has persisted through three decades, including the herring stock crash of the early 1990s. Including sea surface temperature, primary productivity, and additional predator or competitor abundances singly or in combination did not improve model performance. We suggest that synchrony of juvenile herring and pollock survival may be caused by increased abundance of their zooplankton prey, or high juvenile pollock abundance may promote prey switching and satiation of predators. Regardless of the mechanism, the relationship has practical application to herring recruitment forecasting, and serves as an example of incorporating ecosystem components into a stock assessment model.

At the forefront: evidence of the applicability of using environmental DNA to quantify the abundance of fish populations in natural lentic waters with additional sampling considerations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Klobucar, Stephen L.; Rodgers, Torrey W.; Budy, Phaedra

2017-01-01

Environmental DNA (eDNA) sampling has proven to be a valuable tool for detecting species in aquatic ecosystems. Within this rapidly evolving field, a promising application is the ability to obtain quantitative estimates of relative species abundance based on eDNA concentration rather than traditionally labor-intensive methods. We investigated the relationship between eDNA concentration and Arctic char (Salvelinus alpinus) abundance in five well-studied natural lakes; additionally, we examined the effects of different temporal (e.g., season) and spatial (e.g., depth) scales on eDNA concentration. Concentrations of eDNA were linearly correlated with char population estimates ( = 0.78) and exponentially correlated with char densities ( = 0.96 by area; 0.82 by volume). Across lakes, eDNA concentrations were greater and more homogeneous in the water column during mixis; however, when stratified, eDNA concentrations were greater in the hypolimnion. Overall, our findings demonstrate that eDNA techniques can produce effective estimates of relative fish abundance in natural lakes. These findings can guide future studies to improve and expand eDNA methods while informing research and management using rapid and minimally invasive sampling.

Re-constructing historical Adélie penguin abundance estimates by retrospectively accounting for detection bias.

PubMed

Southwell, Colin; Emmerson, Louise; Newbery, Kym; McKinlay, John; Kerry, Knowles; Woehler, Eric; Ensor, Paul

2015-01-01

Seabirds and other land-breeding marine predators are considered to be useful and practical indicators of the state of marine ecosystems because of their dependence on marine prey and the accessibility of their populations at breeding colonies. Historical counts of breeding populations of these higher-order marine predators are one of few data sources available for inferring past change in marine ecosystems. However, historical abundance estimates derived from these population counts may be subject to unrecognised bias and uncertainty because of variable attendance of birds at breeding colonies and variable timing of past population surveys. We retrospectively accounted for detection bias in historical abundance estimates of the colonial, land-breeding Adélie penguin through an analysis of 222 historical abundance estimates from 81 breeding sites in east Antarctica. The published abundance estimates were de-constructed to retrieve the raw count data and then re-constructed by applying contemporary adjustment factors obtained from remotely operating time-lapse cameras. The re-construction process incorporated spatial and temporal variation in phenology and attendance by using data from cameras deployed at multiple sites over multiple years and propagating this uncertainty through to the final revised abundance estimates. Our re-constructed abundance estimates were consistently higher and more uncertain than published estimates. The re-constructed estimates alter the conclusions reached for some sites in east Antarctica in recent assessments of long-term Adélie penguin population change. Our approach is applicable to abundance data for a wide range of colonial, land-breeding marine species including other penguin species, flying seabirds and marine mammals.

Allometric scaling theory applied to FIA biomass estimation

Treesearch

David C. Chojnacky

2002-01-01

Tree biomass estimates in the Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) database are derived from numerous methodologies whose abundance and complexity raise questions about consistent results throughout the U.S. A new model based on allometric scaling theory ("WBE") offers simplified methodology and a theoretically sound basis for improving the reliability and...

ESTIMATING THE DISTRIBUTION OF HARVESTED ESTUARINE BIVALVES WITH NATURAL-HISTORY-BASED HABITAT SUITABILITY MODELS.

EPA Science Inventory

Habitat suitability models are used to forecast how environmental change may affect the abundance or distribution of species of interest. The development of habitat suitability models may be used to estimate the vulnerability of this valued ecosystem good to natural or anthropog...

Estimating the distribution of harvested estuarine bivalves with natural-history-based habitat suitability models

EPA Science Inventory

Habitat suitability models are useful to forecast how environmental change may affect the abundance or distribution of species of concern. In the case of harvested bivalves, those models may be used to estimate the vulnerability of this valued ecosystem good to natural or human-...

Estimating sturgeon abundance in the Carolinas using side-scan sonar

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flowers, H. Jared; Hightower, Joseph E.

2015-01-01

Sturgeons (Acipenseridae) are one of the most threatened taxa worldwide, including species in North Carolina and South Carolina. Populations of Atlantic Sturgeon Acipenser oxyrinchus in the Carolinas have been significantly reduced from historical levels by a combination of intense fishing and habitat loss. There is a need for estimates of current abundance, to describe status, and for estimates of historical abundance in order to provide realistic recovery goals. In this study we used N-mixture and distance models with data acquired from side-scan sonar surveys to estimate abundance of sturgeon in six major sturgeon rivers in North Carolina and South Carolina. Estimated abundances of sturgeon greater than 1 m TL in the Carolina distinct population segment (DPS) were 2,031 using the count model and 1,912 via the distance model. The Pee Dee River had the highest overall abundance of any river at 1,944 (count model) or 1,823 (distance model). These estimates do not account for sturgeon less than 1 m TL or occurring in riverine reaches not surveyed or in marine waters. Comparing the two models, the N-mixture model produced similar estimates using less data than the distance model with only a slight reduction of estimated precision.

Comparing the normalization methods for the differential analysis of Illumina high-throughput RNA-Seq data.

PubMed

Li, Peipei; Piao, Yongjun; Shon, Ho Sun; Ryu, Keun Ho

2015-10-28

Recently, rapid improvements in technology and decrease in sequencing costs have made RNA-Seq a widely used technique to quantify gene expression levels. Various normalization approaches have been proposed, owing to the importance of normalization in the analysis of RNA-Seq data. A comparison of recently proposed normalization methods is required to generate suitable guidelines for the selection of the most appropriate approach for future experiments. In this paper, we compared eight non-abundance (RC, UQ, Med, TMM, DESeq, Q, RPKM, and ERPKM) and two abundance estimation normalization methods (RSEM and Sailfish). The experiments were based on real Illumina high-throughput RNA-Seq of 35- and 76-nucleotide sequences produced in the MAQC project and simulation reads. Reads were mapped with human genome obtained from UCSC Genome Browser Database. For precise evaluation, we investigated Spearman correlation between the normalization results from RNA-Seq and MAQC qRT-PCR values for 996 genes. Based on this work, we showed that out of the eight non-abundance estimation normalization methods, RC, UQ, Med, TMM, DESeq, and Q gave similar normalization results for all data sets. For RNA-Seq of a 35-nucleotide sequence, RPKM showed the highest correlation results, but for RNA-Seq of a 76-nucleotide sequence, least correlation was observed than the other methods. ERPKM did not improve results than RPKM. Between two abundance estimation normalization methods, for RNA-Seq of a 35-nucleotide sequence, higher correlation was obtained with Sailfish than that with RSEM, which was better than without using abundance estimation methods. However, for RNA-Seq of a 76-nucleotide sequence, the results achieved by RSEM were similar to without applying abundance estimation methods, and were much better than with Sailfish. Furthermore, we found that adding a poly-A tail increased alignment numbers, but did not improve normalization results. Spearman correlation analysis revealed that RC, UQ, Med, TMM, DESeq, and Q did not noticeably improve gene expression normalization, regardless of read length. Other normalization methods were more efficient when alignment accuracy was low; Sailfish with RPKM gave the best normalization results. When alignment accuracy was high, RC was sufficient for gene expression calculation. And we suggest ignoring poly-A tail during differential gene expression analysis.

Monitoring Dolphins in an Urban Marine System: Total and Effective Population Size Estimates of Indo-Pacific Bottlenose Dolphins in Moreton Bay, Australia

PubMed Central

Ansmann, Ina C.; Lanyon, Janet M.; Seddon, Jennifer M.; Parra, Guido J.

2013-01-01

Moreton Bay, Queensland, Australia is an area of high biodiversity and conservation value and home to two sympatric sub-populations of Indo-Pacific bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops aduncus). These dolphins live in close proximity to major urban developments. Successful management requires information regarding their abundance. Here, we estimate total and effective population sizes of bottlenose dolphins in Moreton Bay using photo-identification and genetic data collected during boat-based surveys in 2008–2010. Abundance (N) was estimated using open population mark-recapture models based on sighting histories of distinctive individuals. Effective population size (Ne) was estimated using the linkage disequilibrium method based on nuclear genetic data at 20 microsatellite markers in skin samples, and corrected for bias caused by overlapping generations (Nec). A total of 174 sightings of dolphin groups were recorded and 365 different individuals identified. Over the whole of Moreton Bay, a population size N of 554±22.2 (SE) (95% CI: 510–598) was estimated. The southern bay sub-population was small at an estimated N = 193±6.4 (SE) (95% CI: 181–207), while the North sub-population was more numerous, with 446±56 (SE) (95% CI: 336–556) individuals. The small estimated effective population size of the southern sub-population (Nec = 56, 95% CI: 33–128) raises conservation concerns. A power analysis suggested that to reliably detect small (5%) declines in size of this population would require substantial survey effort (>4 years of annual mark-recapture surveys) at the precision levels achieved here. To ensure that ecological as well as genetic diversity within this population of bottlenose dolphins is preserved, we consider that North and South sub-populations should be treated as separate management units. Systematic surveys over smaller areas holding locally-adapted sub-populations are suggested as an alternative method for increasing ability to detect abundance trends. PMID:23755197

Abundance Trends and Status of the Little Colorado River Population of Humpback Chub: An Update Considering Data From 1989-2008

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coggins,, Lewis G.; Walters, Carl J.

2009-01-01

Mark-recapture methods have been used for the past two decades to assess trends in adult abundance and recruitment of the Little Colorado River (LCR) population of humpback chub. These methods indicate that the adult population declined through the 1980s and early 1990s but has been increasing for the past decade. Recruitment appears also to have increased, particularly in the 2003-4 period. Considering a range of assumed natural mortality-rates and magnitude of ageing error, it is unlikely that there are currently less than 6,000 adults or more than 10,000 adults. Our best estimate of the current adult (age 4 years or more) population is approximately 7,650 fish. Recent humpback chub assessments using the Age-Structured Mark-Recapture model (ASMR) and reported in 2006 (Melis and others, 2006) and 2008 (Coggins, 2008a,b) have provided abundance and recruitment trend estimates that have changed progressively over time as more data are considered by the model. The general pattern of change implies a less severe decline in adult abundance during the late 1980s through early 1990s, with attendant changes in recruitment supporting this demographic pattern. We have been concerned that these changes are not indicative of the true population and may be associated with a 'retrospective' bias as additional data are included in the ASMR model. To investigate this possibility, we developed a realistic individual-based simulation model (IBM) to generate replicate artificial data sets with similar characteristics to the true humpback chub data. The artificial data have known abundance trends and we analyzed these data with ASMR. On the basis of these simulations, we believe that errors in assigning age (and therefore brood-year) to fish based on their length are likely to have caused the retrospective bias pattern seen in the assessments and to have caused both less severe trends in the adult abundance estimates and progressively more severe downward bias in estimates of adult mortality-rates. This 'smearing', or assignment of fish from a single brood-year into multiple incorrect brood-years, is a result of variation in growth rates. The IBM simulations indicate that as a result of this error source, the best estimates of abundance and recruitment for any calendar year are those obtained from data collected previous to and within a year or two after each calendar year.

An improved nonparametric lower bound of species richness via a modified good-turing frequency formula.

PubMed

Chiu, Chun-Huo; Wang, Yi-Ting; Walther, Bruno A; Chao, Anne

2014-09-01

It is difficult to accurately estimate species richness if there are many almost undetectable species in a hyper-diverse community. Practically, an accurate lower bound for species richness is preferable to an inaccurate point estimator. The traditional nonparametric lower bound developed by Chao (1984, Scandinavian Journal of Statistics 11, 265-270) for individual-based abundance data uses only the information on the rarest species (the numbers of singletons and doubletons) to estimate the number of undetected species in samples. Applying a modified Good-Turing frequency formula, we derive an approximate formula for the first-order bias of this traditional lower bound. The approximate bias is estimated by using additional information (namely, the numbers of tripletons and quadrupletons). This approximate bias can be corrected, and an improved lower bound is thus obtained. The proposed lower bound is nonparametric in the sense that it is universally valid for any species abundance distribution. A similar type of improved lower bound can be derived for incidence data. We test our proposed lower bounds on simulated data sets generated from various species abundance models. Simulation results show that the proposed lower bounds always reduce bias over the traditional lower bounds and improve accuracy (as measured by mean squared error) when the heterogeneity of species abundances is relatively high. We also apply the proposed new lower bounds to real data for illustration and for comparisons with previously developed estimators. © 2014, The International Biometric Society.

Abundance estimation and conservation biology

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nichols, J.D.; MacKenzie, D.I.

2004-01-01

Abundance is the state variable of interest in most population–level ecological research and in most programs involving management and conservation of animal populations. Abundance is the single parameter of interest in capture–recapture models for closed populations (e.g., Darroch, 1958; Otis et al., 1978; Chao, 2001). The initial capture–recapture models developed for partially (Darroch, 1959) and completely (Jolly, 1965; Seber, 1965) open populations represented efforts to relax the restrictive assumption of population closure for the purpose of estimating abundance. Subsequent emphases in capture–recapture work were on survival rate estimation in the 1970’s and 1980’s (e.g., Burnham et al., 1987; Lebreton et al.,1992), and on movement estimation in the 1990’s (Brownie et al., 1993; Schwarz et al., 1993). However, from the mid–1990’s until the present time, capture–recapture investigators have expressed a renewed interest in abundance and related parameters (Pradel, 1996; Schwarz & Arnason, 1996; Schwarz, 2001). The focus of this session was abundance, and presentations covered topics ranging from estimation of abundance and rate of change in abundance, to inferences about the demographic processes underlying changes in abundance, to occupancy as a surrogate of abundance. The plenary paper by Link & Barker (2004) is provocative and very interesting, and it contains a number of important messages and suggestions. Link & Barker (2004) emphasize that the increasing complexity of capture–recapture models has resulted in large numbers of parameters and that a challenge to ecologists is to extract ecological signals from this complexity. They offer hierarchical models as a natural approach to inference in which traditional parameters are viewed as realizations of stochastic processes. These processes are governed by hyperparameters, and the inferential approach focuses on these hyperparameters. Link & Barker (2004) also suggest that our attention should be focused on relationships between demographic processes such as survival and recruitment, the two quantities responsible for changes in abundance, rather than simply on the magnitudes of these quantities. They describe a type of Jolly–Seber capture–recapture model that permits inference about the underlying relationship between per capita recruitment rates and survival rates (Link & Barker, this volume). Implementation used Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods and appeared to work well, yielding inferences about the relationship between recruitment and survival that were robust to selection of prior distribution. We believe that readers will find their arguments compelling, and we expect to see increased use of hierarchical modeling approaches in capture–recapture and related fields. Otto (presentation without paper) also recommended use of hierarchical models in analysis of multiple data sources dealing with population dynamics of North American mallards. He integrated survival inferences from ringing data, abundance information from aerial survey data, and recruitment information based on age ratios from a harvest survey. He used a Leslie matrix population projection model as an integrating framework and obtained estimates of breeding population size using all data.Otto’s approach also permitted inference about biases in estimated quantities. As with the work of Link & Barker (2004), we find Otto’s recommendation to use hierarchical models to integrate data from multiple sources to be very compelling. Alisauskas et al. (2004) report results of an analysis of capture–recapture data for a askatchewan population of white–winged scoters. They used the approach of Pradel (1996) to estimate population growth rate (See the PDF) directly. Estimates for 1975–1985 were quite low, but estimates for the recent period, 2000–2003,increased to values > 1. Parameter estimates for seniority, survival and per capita recruitment (Pradel, 1996) led to the inference that increased recruitment was largely responsible for the improvements in population status and growth. However, various data sources also indicated that this increase in recruitment was likely a result of increased immigration rather than improved reproduction on the area. This latter inference is important from a conservation perspective in indicating the importance of birds in other locations to growth and health of the study population. Lukacs and Burnham presented material to be published elsewhere that dealt with the use of genetic markers in capture–recapture studies. The data sources for such studies are samples of hair or feces, which are then analyzed using molecular genetic techniques in order to determine individual genotypes with respect to a usually small number of loci. Two types of classification error can arise in such analyses. First, if only a small number of loci is examined, then there may be nonnegligible probabilities that multiple individual animals will have the same genotypes. The second type of error arises during the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) process and can result from failure of alleles to amplify (allelic dropout) or from PCR inhibitors in hair and feces that produce the appearance of false alleles or misprinting (Creel et al., 2003). Lukacs and Burnham developed models that formally incorporate possible misclassification of samples resulting from these errors. These models permit estimation of parameters such as abundance and survival in a manner that properly incorporates this uncertainty of individual identity. We anticipate that noninvasive sampling based on molecular genetic analyses of hair or feces will become extremely important for some species, and that the models of Lukacs and Burnham will become very popular for such analyses. MacKenzie & Nichols (2004) discuss the use of occupancy (proportion of patches or habitat area that is occupied) as a surrogate for abundance. In cases of territorial species and where birds occur at low densities, the number of occupied patches may provide a reasonable estimate of abundance. In other cases, occupancy can be viewed as providing information about one tail of the abundance distribution, P (N = 0). The motivation for considering occupancy as a surrogate for abundance is that occupancy is based on so–called presence–absence surveys that are frequently less expensive of time and effort than methods that estimate abundance directly. We describe one set of models that can be used to estimate occupancy for a single season and another that can be used to estimate parameters such as local probabilities of extinction and colonization that are associated with occupancy dynamics. We outline a possible hybrid approach that combines occupancy data with data on marked individuals in order to betterexplore the mechanisms underlying occupancy dynamics. These five presentations made for an interesting session containing useful information and recommendations for future work. A number of themes connecting these presentations could be emphasized. For example, two of the presentations considered alternatives to standard capture–recapture sampling that can be used to draw inferences about abundance, or a portion of the abundance distribution, with field methods that should be less expensive than usual capture–recapture approaches of handling animals. We believe that the most important theme of the session was the emphasis on the processes responsible for changes in abundance. In particular, we are excited by the potential for using hierarchical models as a means of investigating relationships among vital rates and as a means of combining multiple sources of data relevant to system dynamics. Indeed, we expect the importance of this session theme to be reflected in the content and presentations of the next EURING meeting.

Estimating cetacean density and abundance in the Central and Western Mediterranean Sea through aerial surveys: Implications for management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panigada, Simone; Lauriano, Giancarlo; Donovan, Greg; Pierantonio, Nino; Cañadas, Ana; Vázquez, José Antonio; Burt, Louise

2017-07-01

Systematic, effective monitoring of animal population parameters underpins successful conservation strategy and wildlife management, but it is often neglected in many regions, including much of the Mediterranean Sea. Nonetheless, a series of systematic multispecies aerial surveys was carried out in the seas around Italy to gather important baseline information on cetacean occurrence, distribution and abundance. The monitored areas included the Pelagos Sanctuary, the Tyrrhenian Sea, portions of the Seas of Corsica and Sardinia, the Ionian Seas as well as the Gulf of Taranto. Overall, approximately 48,000 km were flown in either spring, summer and winter between 2009-2014, covering an area of 444,621 km2. The most commonly observed species were the striped dolphin and the fin whale, with 975 and 83 recorded sightings, respectively. Other sighted cetacean species were the common bottlenose dolphin, the Risso's dolphin, the sperm whale, the pilot whale and the Cuvier's beaked whale. Uncorrected model- and design-based estimates of density and abundance for striped dolphins and fin whales were produced, resulting in a best estimate (model-based) of around 95,000 striped dolphins (CV=11.6%; 95% CI=92,900-120,300) occurring in the Pelagos Sanctuary, Central Tyrrhenian and Western Seas of Corsica and Sardinia combined area in summer 2010. Estimates were also obtained for each individual study region and year. An initial attempt to estimate perception bias for striped dolphins is also provided. The preferred summer 2010 uncorrected best estimate (design-based) for the same areas for fin whales was around 665 (CV=33.1%; 95% CI=350-1260). Estimates are also provided for the individual study regions and years. The results represent baseline data to develop efficient, long-term, systematic monitoring programmes, essential to evaluate trends, as required by a number of national and international frameworks, and stress the need to ensure that surveys are undertaken regularly and at a sufficient spatial scale. The management implications of the results are discussed also in light of a possible decline of fin whales abundance over the period from the mid-1990s to the present. Further work to understand changes in distribution and to allow for improved spatial models is emphasized.

Evaluating abundance estimate precision and the assumptions of a count-based index for small mammals

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wiewel, A.S.; Adams, A.A.Y.; Rodda, G.H.

2009-01-01

Conservation and management of small mammals requires reliable knowledge of population size. We investigated precision of markrecapture and removal abundance estimates generated from live-trapping and snap-trapping data collected at sites on Guam (n 7), Rota (n 4), Saipan (n 5), and Tinian (n 3), in the Mariana Islands. We also evaluated a common index, captures per unit effort (CPUE), as a predictor of abundance. In addition, we evaluated cost and time associated with implementing live-trapping and snap-trapping and compared species-specific capture rates of selected live- and snap-traps. For all species, markrecapture estimates were consistently more precise than removal estimates based on coefficients of variation and 95 confidence intervals. The predictive utility of CPUE was poor but improved with increasing sampling duration. Nonetheless, modeling of sampling data revealed that underlying assumptions critical to application of an index of abundance, such as constant capture probability across space, time, and individuals, were not met. Although snap-trapping was cheaper and faster than live-trapping, the time difference was negligible when site preparation time was considered. Rattus diardii spp. captures were greatest in Haguruma live-traps (Standard Trading Co., Honolulu, HI) and Victor snap-traps (Woodstream Corporation, Lititz, PA), whereas Suncus murinus and Mus musculus captures were greatest in Sherman live-traps (H. B. Sherman Traps, Inc., Tallahassee, FL) and Museum Special snap-traps (Woodstream Corporation). Although snap-trapping and CPUE may have utility after validation against more rigorous methods, validation should occur across the full range of study conditions. Resources required for this level of validation would likely be better allocated towards implementing rigorous and robust methods.

Bayes and empirical Bayes estimators of abundance and density from spatial capture-recapture data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dorazio, Robert M.

2013-01-01

In capture-recapture and mark-resight surveys, movements of individuals both within and between sampling periods can alter the susceptibility of individuals to detection over the region of sampling. In these circumstances spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR) models, which incorporate the observed locations of individuals, allow population density and abundance to be estimated while accounting for differences in detectability of individuals. In this paper I propose two Bayesian SECR models, one for the analysis of recaptures observed in trapping arrays and another for the analysis of recaptures observed in area searches. In formulating these models I used distinct submodels to specify the distribution of individual home-range centers and the observable recaptures associated with these individuals. This separation of ecological and observational processes allowed me to derive a formal connection between Bayes and empirical Bayes estimators of population abundance that has not been established previously. I showed that this connection applies to every Poisson point-process model of SECR data and provides theoretical support for a previously proposed estimator of abundance based on recaptures in trapping arrays. To illustrate results of both classical and Bayesian methods of analysis, I compared Bayes and empirical Bayes esimates of abundance and density using recaptures from simulated and real populations of animals. Real populations included two iconic datasets: recaptures of tigers detected in camera-trap surveys and recaptures of lizards detected in area-search surveys. In the datasets I analyzed, classical and Bayesian methods provided similar – and often identical – inferences, which is not surprising given the sample sizes and the noninformative priors used in the analyses.

Bayes and empirical Bayes estimators of abundance and density from spatial capture-recapture data.

PubMed

Dorazio, Robert M

2013-01-01

In capture-recapture and mark-resight surveys, movements of individuals both within and between sampling periods can alter the susceptibility of individuals to detection over the region of sampling. In these circumstances spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR) models, which incorporate the observed locations of individuals, allow population density and abundance to be estimated while accounting for differences in detectability of individuals. In this paper I propose two Bayesian SECR models, one for the analysis of recaptures observed in trapping arrays and another for the analysis of recaptures observed in area searches. In formulating these models I used distinct submodels to specify the distribution of individual home-range centers and the observable recaptures associated with these individuals. This separation of ecological and observational processes allowed me to derive a formal connection between Bayes and empirical Bayes estimators of population abundance that has not been established previously. I showed that this connection applies to every Poisson point-process model of SECR data and provides theoretical support for a previously proposed estimator of abundance based on recaptures in trapping arrays. To illustrate results of both classical and Bayesian methods of analysis, I compared Bayes and empirical Bayes esimates of abundance and density using recaptures from simulated and real populations of animals. Real populations included two iconic datasets: recaptures of tigers detected in camera-trap surveys and recaptures of lizards detected in area-search surveys. In the datasets I analyzed, classical and Bayesian methods provided similar - and often identical - inferences, which is not surprising given the sample sizes and the noninformative priors used in the analyses.

Horvitz-Thompson survey sample methods for estimating large-scale animal abundance

USGS Publications Warehouse

Samuel, M.D.; Garton, E.O.

1994-01-01

Large-scale surveys to estimate animal abundance can be useful for monitoring population status and trends, for measuring responses to management or environmental alterations, and for testing ecological hypotheses about abundance. However, large-scale surveys may be expensive and logistically complex. To ensure resources are not wasted on unattainable targets, the goals and uses of each survey should be specified carefully and alternative methods for addressing these objectives always should be considered. During survey design, the impoflance of each survey error component (spatial design, propofiion of detected animals, precision in detection) should be considered carefully to produce a complete statistically based survey. Failure to address these three survey components may produce population estimates that are inaccurate (biased low), have unrealistic precision (too precise) and do not satisfactorily meet the survey objectives. Optimum survey design requires trade-offs in these sources of error relative to the costs of sampling plots and detecting animals on plots, considerations that are specific to the spatial logistics and survey methods. The Horvitz-Thompson estimators provide a comprehensive framework for considering all three survey components during the design and analysis of large-scale wildlife surveys. Problems of spatial and temporal (especially survey to survey) heterogeneity in detection probabilities have received little consideration, but failure to account for heterogeneity produces biased population estimates. The goal of producing unbiased population estimates is in conflict with the increased variation from heterogeneous detection in the population estimate. One solution to this conflict is to use an MSE-based approach to achieve a balance between bias reduction and increased variation. Further research is needed to develop methods that address spatial heterogeneity in detection, evaluate the effects of temporal heterogeneity on survey objectives and optimize decisions related to survey bias and variance. Finally, managers and researchers involved in the survey design process must realize that obtaining the best survey results requires an interactive and recursive process of survey design, execution, analysis and redesign. Survey refinements will be possible as further knowledge is gained on the actual abundance and distribution of the population and on the most efficient techniques for detection animals.

The Camera-Based Assessment Survey System (C-BASS): A towed camera platform for reef fish abundance surveys and benthic habitat characterization in the Gulf of Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lembke, Chad; Grasty, Sarah; Silverman, Alex; Broadbent, Heather; Butcher, Steven; Murawski, Steven

2017-12-01

An ongoing challenge for fisheries management is to provide cost-effective and timely estimates of habitat stratified fish densities. Traditional approaches use modified commercial fishing gear (such as trawls and baited hooks) that have biases in species selectivity and may also be inappropriate for deployment in some habitat types. Underwater visual and optical approaches offer the promise of more precise and less biased assessments of relative fish abundance, as well as direct estimates of absolute fish abundance. A number of video-based approaches have been developed and the technology for data acquisition, calibration, and synthesis has been developing rapidly. Beginning in 2012, our group of engineers and researchers at the University of South Florida has been working towards the goal of completing large scale, video-based surveys in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This paper discusses design considerations and development of a towed camera system for collection of video-based data on commercially and recreationally important reef fishes and benthic habitat on the West Florida Shelf. Factors considered during development included potential habitat types to be assessed, sea-floor bathymetry, vessel support requirements, personnel requirements, and cost-effectiveness of system components. This regional-specific effort has resulted in a towed platform called the Camera-Based Assessment Survey System, or C-BASS, which has proven capable of surveying tens of kilometers of video transects per day and has the ability to cost-effective population estimates of reef fishes and coincident benthic habitat classification.

Mark-recapture using tetracycline and genetics reveal record-high bear density

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peacock, E.; Titus, K.; Garshelis, D.L.; Peacock, M.M.; Kuc, M.

2011-01-01

We used tetracycline biomarking, augmented with genetic methods to estimate the size of an American black bear (Ursus americanus) population on an island in Southeast Alaska. We marked 132 and 189 bears that consumed remote, tetracycline-laced baits in 2 different years, respectively, and observed 39 marks in 692 bone samples subsequently collected from hunters. We genetically analyzed hair samples from bait sites to determine the sex of marked bears, facilitating derivation of sex-specific population estimates. We obtained harvest samples from beyond the study area to correct for emigration. We estimated a density of 155 independent bears/100 km2, which is equivalent to the highest recorded for this species. This high density appears to be maintained by abundant, accessible natural food. Our population estimate (approx. 1,000 bears) could be used as a baseline and to set hunting quotas. The refined biomarking method for abundance estimation is a useful alternative where physical captures or DNA-based estimates are precluded by cost or logistics. Copyright ?? 2011 The Wildlife Society.

Estimating population density for disease risk assessment: The importance of understanding the area of influence of traps using wild pigs as an example.

PubMed

Davis, Amy J; Leland, Bruce; Bodenchuk, Michael; VerCauteren, Kurt C; Pepin, Kim M

2017-06-01

Population density is a key driver of disease dynamics in wildlife populations. Accurate disease risk assessment and determination of management impacts on wildlife populations requires an ability to estimate population density alongside management actions. A common management technique for controlling wildlife populations to monitor and mitigate disease transmission risk is trapping (e.g., box traps, corral traps, drop nets). Although abundance can be estimated from trapping actions using a variety of analytical approaches, inference is limited by the spatial extent to which a trap attracts animals on the landscape. If the "area of influence" were known, abundance estimates could be converted to densities. In addition to being an important predictor of contact rate and thus disease spread, density is more informative because it is comparable across sites of different sizes. The goal of our study is to demonstrate the importance of determining the area sampled by traps (area of influence) so that density can be estimated from management-based trapping designs which do not employ a trapping grid. To provide one example of how area of influence could be calculated alongside management, we conducted a small pilot study on wild pigs (Sus scrofa) using two removal methods 1) trapping followed by 2) aerial gunning, at three sites in northeast Texas in 2015. We estimated abundance from trapping data with a removal model. We calculated empirical densities as aerial counts divided by the area searched by air (based on aerial flight tracks). We inferred the area of influence of traps by assuming consistent densities across the larger spatial scale and then solving for area impacted by the traps. Based on our pilot study we estimated the area of influence for corral traps in late summer in Texas to be ∼8.6km 2 . Future work showing the effects of behavioral and environmental factors on area of influence will help mangers obtain estimates of density from management data, and determine conditions where trap-attraction is strongest. The ability to estimate density alongside population control activities will improve risk assessment and response operations against disease outbreaks. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Prospecting for Precious Metals in Ultra-Metal-Poor Stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

French, R. S.

2000-05-01

The chemical compositions of the most metal-poor halo stars are living records of the very early nucleosynthetic history of the Galaxy. Only a few prior generations, if not a single one, of element-donating supernovae could have been responsible for the heavy elements observed in ultra-metal-poor (UMP; [Fe/H] < --2.5) stars. Abundances of the heavy neutron-capture elements (Z > 30) can yield direct information about the supernova progenitors to UMP stars, and abundances of unstable thorium and uranium (Z = 90, 92) can potentially provide age estimates for the Galactic halo. Already, many studies have demonstrated that abundances of rare-earth elements (56 <= Z <= 72) in UMP stars are completely consistent with their production in rapid neutron-capture synthesis (r-process) events, usually believed to occur during supernovae explosions. Therefore, mapping the entire abundance pattern of UMP stars is of significant interest. In particular, abundances of the most massive stable elements (Os -> Pb or 76 <= Z <= 82) could provide crucial information about the so-called ``third r-process peak,'' and are critical to the radioactive-dating technique that uses unstable thorium as a chronometer. Until recently, abundance determinations for these elements have been virtually non-existent, as the strongest relevant transitions lay in the vacuum UV, inaccessible to ground-based observation. The availability of high-resolution space-based spectrometers has opened up new regions of spectral coverage, including precisely the range in wavelength needed to make these sensitive measurements. We have undertaken a study of about 10 metal-poor halo giants to determine the abundances of several of the heaviest neutron-capture elements including platinum, osmium, lead, and gold. Preliminary results indicate that the abundance pattern of heavy neutron-capture elements (56 <= Z <= 82) in UMP stars does mimic a scaled solar system r-process. Thus, the ability to estimate the initial abundances of thorium and uranium is greatly reinforced.

Accuracy or precision: Implications of sample design and methodology on abundance estimation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kowalewski, Lucas K.; Chizinski, Christopher J.; Powell, Larkin A.; Pope, Kevin L.; Pegg, Mark A.

2015-01-01

Sampling by spatially replicated counts (point-count) is an increasingly popular method of estimating population size of organisms. Challenges exist when sampling by point-count method, and it is often impractical to sample entire area of interest and impossible to detect every individual present. Ecologists encounter logistical limitations that force them to sample either few large-sample units or many small sample-units, introducing biases to sample counts. We generated a computer environment and simulated sampling scenarios to test the role of number of samples, sample unit area, number of organisms, and distribution of organisms in the estimation of population sizes using N-mixture models. Many sample units of small area provided estimates that were consistently closer to true abundance than sample scenarios with few sample units of large area. However, sample scenarios with few sample units of large area provided more precise abundance estimates than abundance estimates derived from sample scenarios with many sample units of small area. It is important to consider accuracy and precision of abundance estimates during the sample design process with study goals and objectives fully recognized, although and with consequence, consideration of accuracy and precision of abundance estimates is often an afterthought that occurs during the data analysis process.

Combining counts and incidence data: an efficient approach for estimating the log-normal species abundance distribution and diversity indices.

PubMed

Bellier, Edwige; Grøtan, Vidar; Engen, Steinar; Schartau, Ann Kristin; Diserud, Ola H; Finstad, Anders G

2012-10-01

Obtaining accurate estimates of diversity indices is difficult because the number of species encountered in a sample increases with sampling intensity. We introduce a novel method that requires that the presence of species in a sample to be assessed while the counts of the number of individuals per species are only required for just a small part of the sample. To account for species included as incidence data in the species abundance distribution, we modify the likelihood function of the classical Poisson log-normal distribution. Using simulated community assemblages, we contrast diversity estimates based on a community sample, a subsample randomly extracted from the community sample, and a mixture sample where incidence data are added to a subsample. We show that the mixture sampling approach provides more accurate estimates than the subsample and at little extra cost. Diversity indices estimated from a freshwater zooplankton community sampled using the mixture approach show the same pattern of results as the simulation study. Our method efficiently increases the accuracy of diversity estimates and comprehension of the left tail of the species abundance distribution. We show how to choose the scale of sample size needed for a compromise between information gained, accuracy of the estimates and cost expended when assessing biological diversity. The sample size estimates are obtained from key community characteristics, such as the expected number of species in the community, the expected number of individuals in a sample and the evenness of the community.

Estimating population abundance and mapping distribution of wintering sea ducks in coastal waters of the mid-Atlantic

USGS Publications Warehouse

Koneff, M.D.; Royle, J. Andrew; Forsell, D.J.; Wortham, J.S.; Boomer, G.S.; Perry, M.C.

2005-01-01

Survey design for wintering scoters (Melanitta sp.) and other sea ducks that occur in offshore waters is challenging because these species have large ranges, are subject to distributional shifts among years and within a season, and can occur in aggregations. Interest in winter sea duck population abundance surveys has grown in recent years. This interest stems from concern over the population status of some sea ducks, limitations of extant breeding waterfowl survey programs in North America and logistical challenges and costs of conducting surveys in northern breeding regions, high winter area philopatry in some species and potential conservation implications, and increasing concern over offshore development and other threats to sea duck wintering habitats. The efficiency and practicality of statistically-rigorous monitoring strategies for mobile, aggregated wintering sea duck populations have not been sufficiently investigated. This study evaluated a 2-phase adaptive stratified strip transect sampling plan to estimate wintering population size of scoters, long-tailed ducks (Clangua hyemalis), and other sea ducks and provide information on distribution. The sampling plan results in an optimal allocation of a fixed sampling effort among offshore strata in the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast region. Phase I transect selection probabilities were based on historic distribution and abundance data, while Phase 2 selection probabilities were based on observations made during Phase 1 flights. Distance sampling methods were used to estimate detection rates. Environmental variables thought to affect detection rates were recorded during the survey and post-stratification and covariate modeling were investigated to reduce the effect of heterogeneity on detection estimation. We assessed cost-precision tradeoffs under a number of fixed-cost sampling scenarios using Monte Carlo simulation. We discuss advantages and limitations of this sampling design for estimating wintering sea duck abundance and mapping distribution and suggest improvements for future surveys.

Validating the LASSO algorithm by unmixing spectral signatures in multicolor phantoms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samarov, Daniel V.; Clarke, Matthew; Lee, Ji Yoon; Allen, David; Litorja, Maritoni; Hwang, Jeeseong

2012-03-01

As hyperspectral imaging (HSI) sees increased implementation into the biological and medical elds it becomes increasingly important that the algorithms being used to analyze the corresponding output be validated. While certainly important under any circumstance, as this technology begins to see a transition from benchtop to bedside ensuring that the measurements being given to medical professionals are accurate and reproducible is critical. In order to address these issues work has been done in generating a collection of datasets which could act as a test bed for algorithms validation. Using a microarray spot printer a collection of three food color dyes, acid red 1 (AR), brilliant blue R (BBR) and erioglaucine (EG) are mixed together at dierent concentrations in varying proportions at dierent locations on a microarray chip. With the concentration and mixture proportions known at each location, using HSI an algorithm should in principle, based on estimates of abundances, be able to determine the concentrations and proportions of each dye at each location on the chip. These types of data are particularly important in the context of medical measurements as the resulting estimated abundances will be used to make critical decisions which can have a serious impact on an individual's health. In this paper we present a novel algorithm for processing and analyzing HSI data based on the LASSO algorithm (similar to "basis pursuit"). The LASSO is a statistical method for simultaneously performing model estimation and variable selection. In the context of estimating abundances in an HSI scene these so called "sparse" representations provided by the LASSO are appropriate as not every pixel will be expected to contain every endmember. The algorithm we present takes the general framework of the LASSO algorithm a step further and incorporates the rich spatial information which is available in HSI to further improve the estimates of abundance. We show our algorithm's improvement over the standard LASSO using the dye mixture data as the test bed.

Kraken: ultrafast metagenomic sequence classification using exact alignments

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Kraken is an ultrafast and highly accurate program for assigning taxonomic labels to metagenomic DNA sequences. Previous programs designed for this task have been relatively slow and computationally expensive, forcing researchers to use faster abundance estimation programs, which only classify small subsets of metagenomic data. Using exact alignment of k-mers, Kraken achieves classification accuracy comparable to the fastest BLAST program. In its fastest mode, Kraken classifies 100 base pair reads at a rate of over 4.1 million reads per minute, 909 times faster than Megablast and 11 times faster than the abundance estimation program MetaPhlAn. Kraken is available at http://ccb.jhu.edu/software/kraken/. PMID:24580807

Constrained Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Relative Abundances of Protein Conformation in a Heterogeneous Mixture from Small Angle X-Ray Scattering Intensity Measurements

PubMed Central

Onuk, A. Emre; Akcakaya, Murat; Bardhan, Jaydeep P.; Erdogmus, Deniz; Brooks, Dana H.; Makowski, Lee

2015-01-01

In this paper, we describe a model for maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) of the relative abundances of different conformations of a protein in a heterogeneous mixture from small angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) intensities. To consider cases where the solution includes intermediate or unknown conformations, we develop a subset selection method based on k-means clustering and the Cramér-Rao bound on the mixture coefficient estimation error to find a sparse basis set that represents the space spanned by the measured SAXS intensities of the known conformations of a protein. Then, using the selected basis set and the assumptions on the model for the intensity measurements, we show that the MLE model can be expressed as a constrained convex optimization problem. Employing the adenylate kinase (ADK) protein and its known conformations as an example, and using Monte Carlo simulations, we demonstrate the performance of the proposed estimation scheme. Here, although we use 45 crystallographically determined experimental structures and we could generate many more using, for instance, molecular dynamics calculations, the clustering technique indicates that the data cannot support the determination of relative abundances for more than 5 conformations. The estimation of this maximum number of conformations is intrinsic to the methodology we have used here. PMID:26924916

Generalized estimators of avian abundance from count survey data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Royle, J. Andrew

2004-01-01

I consider modeling avian abundance from spatially referenced bird count data collected according to common protocols such as capture?recapture, multiple observer, removal sampling and simple point counts. Small sample sizes and large numbers of parameters have motivated many analyses that disregard the spatial indexing of the data, and thus do not provide an adequate treatment of spatial structure. I describe a general framework for modeling spatially replicated data that regards local abundance as a random process, motivated by the view that the set of spatially referenced local populations (at the sample locations) constitute a metapopulation. Under this view, attention can be focused on developing a model for the variation in local abundance independent of the sampling protocol being considered. The metapopulation model structure, when combined with the data generating model, define a simple hierarchical model that can be analyzed using conventional methods. The proposed modeling framework is completely general in the sense that broad classes of metapopulation models may be considered, site level covariates on detection and abundance may be considered, and estimates of abundance and related quantities may be obtained for sample locations, groups of locations, unsampled locations. Two brief examples are given, the first involving simple point counts, and the second based on temporary removal counts. Extension of these models to open systems is briefly discussed.

Evaluation of trace analyte identification in complex matrices by low-resolution gas chromatography--Mass spectrometry through signal simulation.

PubMed

Bettencourt da Silva, Ricardo J N

2016-04-01

The identification of trace levels of compounds in complex matrices by conventional low-resolution gas chromatography hyphenated with mass spectrometry is based in the comparison of retention times and abundance ratios of characteristic mass spectrum fragments of analyte peaks from calibrators with sample peaks. Statistically sound criteria for the comparison of these parameters were developed based on the normal distribution of retention times and the simulation of possible non-normal distribution of correlated abundances ratios. The confidence level used to set the statistical maximum and minimum limits of parameters defines the true positive rates of identifications. The false positive rate of identification was estimated from worst-case signal noise models. The estimated true and false positive identifications rate from one retention time and two correlated ratios of three fragments abundances were combined using simple Bayes' statistics to estimate the probability of compound identification being correct designated examination uncertainty. Models of the variation of examination uncertainty with analyte quantity allowed the estimation of the Limit of Examination as the lowest quantity that produced "Extremely strong" evidences of compound presence. User friendly MS-Excel files are made available to allow the easy application of developed approach in routine and research laboratories. The developed approach was successfully applied to the identification of chlorpyrifos-methyl and malathion in QuEChERS method extracts of vegetables with high water content for which the estimated Limit of Examination is 0.14 mg kg(-1) and 0.23 mg kg(-1) respectively. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A robust design mark-resight abundance estimator allowing heterogeneity in resighting probabilities

USGS Publications Warehouse

McClintock, B.T.; White, Gary C.; Burnham, K.P.

2006-01-01

This article introduces the beta-binomial estimator (BBE), a closed-population abundance mark-resight model combining the favorable qualities of maximum likelihood theory and the allowance of individual heterogeneity in sighting probability (p). The model may be parameterized for a robust sampling design consisting of multiple primary sampling occasions where closure need not be met between primary occasions. We applied the model to brown bear data from three study areas in Alaska and compared its performance to the joint hypergeometric estimator (JHE) and Bowden's estimator (BOWE). BBE estimates suggest heterogeneity levels were non-negligible and discourage the use of JHE for these data. Compared to JHE and BOWE, confidence intervals were considerably shorter for the AICc model-averaged BBE. To evaluate the properties of BBE relative to JHE and BOWE when sample sizes are small, simulations were performed with data from three primary occasions generated under both individual heterogeneity and temporal variation in p. All models remained consistent regardless of levels of variation in p. In terms of precision, the AICc model-averaged BBE showed advantages over JHE and BOWE when heterogeneity was present and mean sighting probabilities were similar between primary occasions. Based on the conditions examined, BBE is a reliable alternative to JHE or BOWE and provides a framework for further advances in mark-resight abundance estimation. ?? 2006 American Statistical Association and the International Biometric Society.

Estimating the effectiveness of further sampling in species inventories

USGS Publications Warehouse

Keating, K.A.; Quinn, J.F.; Ivie, M.A.; Ivie, L.L.

1998-01-01

Estimators of the number of additional species expected in the next ??n samples offer a potentially important tool for improving cost-effectiveness of species inventories but are largely untested. We used Monte Carlo methods to compare 11 such estimators, across a range of community structures and sampling regimes, and validated our results, where possible, using empirical data from vascular plant and beetle inventories from Glacier National Park, Montana, USA. We found that B. Efron and R. Thisted's 1976 negative binomial estimator was most robust to differences in community structure and that it was among the most accurate estimators when sampling was from model communities with structures resembling the large, heterogeneous communities that are the likely targets of major inventory efforts. Other estimators may be preferred under specific conditions, however. For example, when sampling was from model communities with highly even species-abundance distributions, estimates based on the Michaelis-Menten model were most accurate; when sampling was from moderately even model communities with S=10 species or communities with highly uneven species-abundance distributions, estimates based on Gleason's (1922) species-area model were most accurate. We suggest that use of such methods in species inventories can help improve cost-effectiveness by providing an objective basis for redirecting sampling to more-productive sites, methods, or time periods as the expectation of detecting additional species becomes unacceptably low.

Observations on abundance of bluntnose sixgill sharks, Hexanchus griseus, in an urban waterway in Puget Sound, 2003-2005.

PubMed

Griffing, Denise; Larson, Shawn; Hollander, Joel; Carpenter, Tim; Christiansen, Jeff; Doss, Charles

2014-01-01

The bluntnose sixgill shark, Hexanchus griseus, is a widely distributed but poorly understood large, apex predator. Anecdotal reports of diver-shark encounters in the late 1990's and early 2000's in the Pacific Northwest stimulated interest in the normally deep-dwelling shark and its presence in the shallow waters of Puget Sound. Analysis of underwater video documenting sharks at the Seattle Aquarium's sixgill research site in Elliott Bay and mark-resight techniques were used to answer research questions about abundance and seasonality. Seasonal changes in relative abundance in Puget Sound from 2003-2005 are reported here. At the Seattle Aquarium study site, 45 sixgills were tagged with modified Floy visual marker tags, along with an estimated 197 observations of untagged sharks plus 31 returning tagged sharks, for a total of 273 sixgill observations recorded. A mark-resight statistical model based on analysis of underwater video estimated a range of abundance from a high of 98 sharks seen in July of 2004 to a low of 32 sharks seen in March of 2004. Both analyses found sixgills significantly more abundant in the summer months at the Seattle Aquarium's research station.

Observations on Abundance of Bluntnose Sixgill Sharks, Hexanchus griseus, in an Urban Waterway in Puget Sound, 2003-2005

PubMed Central

Griffing, Denise; Larson, Shawn; Hollander, Joel; Carpenter, Tim; Christiansen, Jeff; Doss, Charles

2014-01-01

The bluntnose sixgill shark, Hexanchus griseus, is a widely distributed but poorly understood large, apex predator. Anecdotal reports of diver-shark encounters in the late 1990’s and early 2000’s in the Pacific Northwest stimulated interest in the normally deep-dwelling shark and its presence in the shallow waters of Puget Sound. Analysis of underwater video documenting sharks at the Seattle Aquarium’s sixgill research site in Elliott Bay and mark-resight techniques were used to answer research questions about abundance and seasonality. Seasonal changes in relative abundance in Puget Sound from 2003–2005 are reported here. At the Seattle Aquarium study site, 45 sixgills were tagged with modified Floy visual marker tags, along with an estimated 197 observations of untagged sharks plus 31 returning tagged sharks, for a total of 273 sixgill observations recorded. A mark-resight statistical model based on analysis of underwater video estimated a range of abundance from a high of 98 sharks seen in July of 2004 to a low of 32 sharks seen in March of 2004. Both analyses found sixgills significantly more abundant in the summer months at the Seattle Aquarium’s research station. PMID:24475229

Estimating abundance of adult striped bass in reservoirs using mobile hydroacoustics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hightower, Joseph E.; Taylor, J. Christopher; Degan, Donald J.

2013-01-01

Hydroacoustic surveys have proven valuable for estimating reservoir forage fish abundance but are more challenging for adult predators such as striped bass Morone saxatilis. Difficulties in assessing striped bass in reservoirs include their low density and the inability to distinguish species with hydroacoustic data alone. Despite these difficulties, mobile hydroacoustic surveys have potential to provide useful data for management because of the large sample volume compared to traditional methods such as gill netting and the ability to target specific areas where striped bass are aggregated. Hydroacoustic estimates of reservoir striped bass have been made using mobile surveys, with data analysis using a threshold for target strength in order to focus on striped bass-sized targets, and auxiliary sampling with nets to obtain species composition. We provide recommendations regarding survey design, based in part on simulations that provide insight on the level of effort that would be required to achieve reasonable estimates of abundance. Future surveys may be able to incorporate telemetry or other sonar techniques such as side-scan or multibeam in order to focus survey efforts on productive habitats (within lake and vertically). However, species apportionment will likely remain the main source of error, and we see no hydroacoustic system on the horizon that will identify fish by species at the spatial and temporal scale required for most reservoir surveys. In situations where species composition can be reliably assessed using traditional gears, abundance estimates from hydroacoustic methods should be useful to fishery managers interested in developing harvest regulations, assessing survival of stocked juveniles, identifying seasonal aggregations, and examining predator–prey balance.

Monitoring planktivorous seabird populations: Validating surface counts of crevice-nesting auklets using mark-resight techniques

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sheffield, L.M.; Gall, Adrian E.; Roby, D.D.; Irons, D.B.; Dugger, K.M.

2006-01-01

Least Auklets (Aethia pusilla (Pallas, 1811)) are the most abundant species of seabird in the Bering Sea and offer a relatively efficient means of monitoring secondary productivity in the marine environment. Counting auklets on surface plots is the primary method used to track changes in numbers of these crevice-nesters, but counts can be highly variable and may not be representative of the number of nesting individuals. We compared average maximum counts of Least Auklets on surface plots with density estimates based on mark–resight data at a colony on St. Lawrence Island, Alaska, during 2001–2004. Estimates of breeding auklet abundance from mark–resight averaged 8 times greater than those from maximum surface counts. Our results also indicate that average maximum surface counts are poor indicators of breeding auklet abundance and do not vary consistently with auklet nesting density across the breeding colony. Estimates of Least Auklet abundance from mark–resight were sufficiently precise to meet management goals for tracking changes in seabird populations. We recommend establishing multiple permanent banding plots for mark–resight studies on colonies selected for intensive long-term monitoring. Mark–resight is more likely to detect biologically significant changes in size of auklet breeding colonies than traditional surface count techniques.

Filling a void: abundance estimation of North American populations of arctic geese using hunter recoveries

USGS Publications Warehouse

Alisauskas, R.T.; Drake, K.L.; Nichols, J.D.; Thomson, David L.; Cooch, Evan G.; Conroy, Michael J.

2009-01-01

We consider use of recoveries of marked birds harvested by hunters, in conjunction with continental harvest estimates, for drawing inferences about continental abundance of a select number of goose species. We review assumptions of this method, a version of the Lincoln?Petersen approach, and consider its utility as a tool for making decisions about harvest management in comparison to current sources of information. Finally, we compare such estimates with existing count data, photographic estimates, or other abundance estimates. In most cases, Lincoln estimates are far higher than abundances assumed or perhaps accepted by many waterfowl biologists and managers. Nevertheless, depending on the geographic scope of inference, we suggest that this approach for abundance estimation of arctic geese may have usefulness for retrospective purposes or to assist with harvest management decisions for some species. Lincoln?s estimates may be as close or closer to truth than count, index, or photo data, and can be used with marking efforts currently in place for estimation of survival and harvest rates. Although there are bias issues associated with estimates of both harvest and harvest rate, some of the latter can be addressed with proper allocation of marks to spatially structured populations if subpopulations show heterogeneity in harvest rates.

Estimation of occupancy, breeding success, and predicted abundance of golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) in the Diablo Range, California, 2014

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wiens, J. David; Kolar, Patrick S.; Fuller, Mark R.; Hunt, W. Grainger; Hunt, Teresa

2015-01-01

We used a multistate occupancy sampling design to estimate occupancy, breeding success, and abundance of territorial pairs of golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) in the Diablo Range, California, in 2014. This method uses the spatial pattern of detections and non-detections over repeated visits to survey sites to estimate probabilities of occupancy and successful reproduction while accounting for imperfect detection of golden eagles and their young during surveys. The estimated probability of detecting territorial pairs of golden eagles and their young was less than 1 and varied with time of the breeding season, as did the probability of correctly classifying a pair’s breeding status. Imperfect detection and breeding classification led to a sizeable difference between the uncorrected, naïve estimate of the proportion of occupied sites where successful reproduction was observed (0.20) and the model-based estimate (0.30). The analysis further indicated a relatively high overall probability of landscape occupancy by pairs of golden eagles (0.67, standard error = 0.06), but that areas with the greatest occupancy and reproductive potential were patchily distributed. We documented a total of 138 territorial pairs of golden eagles during surveys completed in the 2014 breeding season, which represented about one-half of the 280 pairs we estimated to occur in the broader 5,169-square kilometer region sampled. The study results emphasize the importance of accounting for imperfect detection and spatial heterogeneity in studies of site occupancy, breeding success, and abundance of golden eagles.

Estimating Limit Reference Points for Western Pacific Leatherback Turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) in the U.S. West Coast EEZ

PubMed Central

Curtis, K. Alexandra; Moore, Jeffrey E.; Benson, Scott R.

2015-01-01

Biological limit reference points (LRPs) for fisheries catch represent upper bounds that avoid undesirable population states. LRPs can support consistent management evaluation among species and regions, and can advance ecosystem-based fisheries management. For transboundary species, LRPs prorated by local abundance can inform local management decisions when international coordination is lacking. We estimated LRPs for western Pacific leatherbacks in the U.S. West Coast Exclusive Economic Zone (WCEEZ) using three approaches with different types of information on local abundance. For the current application, the best-informed LRP used a local abundance estimate derived from nest counts, vital rate information, satellite tag data, and fishery observer data, and was calculated with a Potential Biological Removal estimator. Management strategy evaluation was used to set tuning parameters of the LRP estimators to satisfy risk tolerances for falling below population thresholds, and to evaluate sensitivity of population outcomes to bias in key inputs. We estimated local LRPs consistent with three hypothetical management objectives: allowing the population to rebuild to its maximum net productivity level (4.7 turtles per five years), limiting delay of population rebuilding (0.8 turtles per five years), or only preventing further decline (7.7 turtles per five years). These LRPs pertain to all human-caused removals and represent the WCEEZ contribution to meeting population management objectives within a broader international cooperative framework. We present multi-year estimates, because at low LRP values, annual assessments are prone to substantial error that can lead to volatile and costly management without providing further conservation benefit. The novel approach and the performance criteria used here are not a direct expression of the “jeopardy” standard of the U.S. Endangered Species Act, but they provide useful assessment information and could help guide international management frameworks. Given the range of abundance data scenarios addressed, LRPs should be estimable for many other areas, populations, and taxa. PMID:26368557

Estimating Limit Reference Points for Western Pacific Leatherback Turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) in the U.S. West Coast EEZ.

PubMed

Curtis, K Alexandra; Moore, Jeffrey E; Benson, Scott R

2015-01-01

Biological limit reference points (LRPs) for fisheries catch represent upper bounds that avoid undesirable population states. LRPs can support consistent management evaluation among species and regions, and can advance ecosystem-based fisheries management. For transboundary species, LRPs prorated by local abundance can inform local management decisions when international coordination is lacking. We estimated LRPs for western Pacific leatherbacks in the U.S. West Coast Exclusive Economic Zone (WCEEZ) using three approaches with different types of information on local abundance. For the current application, the best-informed LRP used a local abundance estimate derived from nest counts, vital rate information, satellite tag data, and fishery observer data, and was calculated with a Potential Biological Removal estimator. Management strategy evaluation was used to set tuning parameters of the LRP estimators to satisfy risk tolerances for falling below population thresholds, and to evaluate sensitivity of population outcomes to bias in key inputs. We estimated local LRPs consistent with three hypothetical management objectives: allowing the population to rebuild to its maximum net productivity level (4.7 turtles per five years), limiting delay of population rebuilding (0.8 turtles per five years), or only preventing further decline (7.7 turtles per five years). These LRPs pertain to all human-caused removals and represent the WCEEZ contribution to meeting population management objectives within a broader international cooperative framework. We present multi-year estimates, because at low LRP values, annual assessments are prone to substantial error that can lead to volatile and costly management without providing further conservation benefit. The novel approach and the performance criteria used here are not a direct expression of the "jeopardy" standard of the U.S. Endangered Species Act, but they provide useful assessment information and could help guide international management frameworks. Given the range of abundance data scenarios addressed, LRPs should be estimable for many other areas, populations, and taxa.

Abundance and Survival Rates of the Hawai’i Island Associated Spinner Dolphin (Stenella longirostris) Stock

PubMed Central

Tyne, Julian A.; Pollock, Kenneth H.; Johnston, David W.; Bejder, Lars

2014-01-01

Reliable population estimates are critical to implement effective management strategies. The Hawai’i Island spinner dolphin (Stenella longirostris) is a genetically distinct stock that displays a rigid daily behavioural pattern, foraging offshore at night and resting in sheltered bays during the day. Consequently, they are exposed to frequent human interactions and disturbance. We estimated population parameters of this spinner dolphin stock using a systematic sampling design and capture–recapture models. From September 2010 to August 2011, boat-based photo-identification surveys were undertaken monthly over 132 days (>1,150 hours of effort; >100,000 dorsal fin images) in the four main resting bays along the Kona Coast, Hawai’i Island. All images were graded according to photographic quality and distinctiveness. Over 32,000 images were included in the analyses, from which 607 distinctive individuals were catalogued and 214 were highly distinctive. Two independent estimates of the proportion of highly distinctive individuals in the population were not significantly different (p = 0.68). Individual heterogeneity and time variation in capture probabilities were strongly indicated for these data; therefore capture–recapture models allowing for these variations were used. The estimated annual apparent survival rate (product of true survival and permanent emigration) was 0.97 SE±0.05. Open and closed capture–recapture models for the highly distinctive individuals photographed at least once each month produced similar abundance estimates. An estimate of 221±4.3 SE highly distinctive spinner dolphins, resulted in a total abundance of 631±60.1 SE, (95% CI 524–761) spinner dolphins in the Hawai’i Island stock, which is lower than previous estimates. When this abundance estimate is considered alongside the rigid daily behavioural pattern, genetic distinctiveness, and the ease of human access to spinner dolphins in their preferred resting habitats, this Hawai’i Island stock is likely more vulnerable to negative impacts from human disturbance than previously believed. PMID:24465917

Abundance and survival rates of the Hawai'i Island associated spinner dolphin (Stenella longirostris) stock.

PubMed

Tyne, Julian A; Pollock, Kenneth H; Johnston, David W; Bejder, Lars

2014-01-01

Reliable population estimates are critical to implement effective management strategies. The Hawai'i Island spinner dolphin (Stenella longirostris) is a genetically distinct stock that displays a rigid daily behavioural pattern, foraging offshore at night and resting in sheltered bays during the day. Consequently, they are exposed to frequent human interactions and disturbance. We estimated population parameters of this spinner dolphin stock using a systematic sampling design and capture-recapture models. From September 2010 to August 2011, boat-based photo-identification surveys were undertaken monthly over 132 days (>1,150 hours of effort; >100,000 dorsal fin images) in the four main resting bays along the Kona Coast, Hawai'i Island. All images were graded according to photographic quality and distinctiveness. Over 32,000 images were included in the analyses, from which 607 distinctive individuals were catalogued and 214 were highly distinctive. Two independent estimates of the proportion of highly distinctive individuals in the population were not significantly different (p = 0.68). Individual heterogeneity and time variation in capture probabilities were strongly indicated for these data; therefore capture-recapture models allowing for these variations were used. The estimated annual apparent survival rate (product of true survival and permanent emigration) was 0.97 SE ± 0.05. Open and closed capture-recapture models for the highly distinctive individuals photographed at least once each month produced similar abundance estimates. An estimate of 221 ± 4.3 SE highly distinctive spinner dolphins, resulted in a total abundance of 631 ± 60.1 SE, (95% CI 524-761) spinner dolphins in the Hawai'i Island stock, which is lower than previous estimates. When this abundance estimate is considered alongside the rigid daily behavioural pattern, genetic distinctiveness, and the ease of human access to spinner dolphins in their preferred resting habitats, this Hawai'i Island stock is likely more vulnerable to negative impacts from human disturbance than previously believed.

The abundance of HCN in circumstellar envelopes of AGB stars of different chemical type

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schöier, F. L.; Ramstedt, S.; Olofsson, H.; Lindqvist, M.; Bieging, J. H.; Marvel, K. B.

2013-02-01

Aims: A multi-transition survey of HCN (sub-) millimeter line emission from a large sample of asymptotic giant branch (AGB) stars of different chemical type is presented. The data are analysed and circumstellar HCN abundances are estimated. The sample stars span a large range of properties such as mass-loss rate and photospheric C/O-ratio. The analysis of the new data allows for more accurate estimates of the circumstellar HCN abundances and puts new constraints on chemical models. Methods: In order to constrain the circumstellar HCN abundance distribution a detailed non-local thermodynamic equilibrium (LTE) excitation analysis, based on the Monte Carlo method, is performed. Effects of line overlaps and radiative excitation from dust grains are included. Results: The median values for the derived abundances of HCN (with respect to H2) are 3 × 10-5, 7 × 10-7 and 10-7 for carbon stars (25 stars), S-type AGB stars (19 stars) and M-type AGB stars (25 stars), respectively. The estimated sizes of the HCN envelopes are similar to those obtained in the case of SiO for the same sample of sources and agree well with previous results from interferometric observations, when these are available. Conclusions: We find that there is a clear dependence of the derived circumstellar HCN abundance on the C/O-ratio of the star, in that carbon stars have about two orders of magnitude higher abundances than M-type AGB stars, on average. The derived HCN abundances of the S-type AGB stars have a larger spread and typically fall in between those of the two other types, however, slightly closer to the values for the M-type AGB stars. For the M-type stars, the estimated abundances are much higher than what would be expected if HCN is formed in thermal equilibrium. However, the results are also in contrast to predictions from recent non-LTE chemical models, where very little difference is expected in the HCN abundances between the various types of AGB stars. This publication is based on data acquired with the Atacama Pathfinder Experiment (APEX) telescope, the IRAM 30 m telescope, the James Clerk Maxwell Telescope (JCMT), the Swedish-ESO Submillimeter Telescope (SEST), and the Onsala 20 m telescope. APEX is a collaboration between the Max-Planck-Institut fur Radioastronomie, the European Southern Observatory (ESO), and the Swedish National Facility for Radio Astronomy, Onsala Space Observatory (OSO). IRAM is supported by INSU/CNRS (France), MPG (Germany) and IGN (Spain). The JCMT is operated by the Joint Astronomy Centre on behalf of the Science and Technology Facilities Council of the United Kingdom, the Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research, and the National Research Council of Canada. The Onsala 20 m telescope is operated by OSO. The SEST was operated jointly by ESO and OSO.Tables 3, 4, and Appendix A are available in electronic form at http://www.aanda.org

Distribution, abundance and habitat use of deep diving cetaceans in the North-East Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rogan, Emer; Cañadas, Ana; Macleod, Kelly; Santos, M. Begoña; Mikkelsen, Bjarni; Uriarte, Ainhize; Van Canneyt, Olivier; Vázquez, José Antonio; Hammond, Philip S.

2017-07-01

In spite of their oceanic habitat, deep diving cetacean species have been found to be affected by anthropogenic activities, with potential population impacts of high intensity sounds generated by naval research and oil prospecting receiving the most attention. Improving the knowledge of the distribution and abundance of this poorly known group is an essential prerequisite to inform mitigation strategies seeking to minimize their spatial and temporal overlap with human activities. We provide for the first time abundance estimates for five deep diving cetacean species (sperm whale, long-finned pilot whale, northern bottlenose whale, Cuvier's beaked whale and Sowerby's beaked whale) using data from three dedicated cetacean sighting surveys that covered the oceanic and shelf waters of the North-East Atlantic. Density surface modelling was used to obtain model-based estimates of abundance and to explore the physical and biological characteristics of the habitat used by these species. Distribution of all species was found to be significantly related to depth, distance from the 2000m depth contour, the contour index (a measure of variability in the seabed) and sea surface temperature. Predicted distribution maps also suggest that there is little spatial overlap between these species. Our results represent the best abundance estimates for deep-diving whales in the North-East Atlantic, predict areas of high density during summer and constitute important baseline information to guide future risk assessments of human activities on these species, evaluate potential spatial and temporal trends and inform EU Directives and future conservation efforts.

The "Tracked Roaming Transect" and distance sampling methods increase the efficiency of underwater visual censuses.

PubMed

Irigoyen, Alejo J; Rojo, Irene; Calò, Antonio; Trobbiani, Gastón; Sánchez-Carnero, Noela; García-Charton, José A

2018-01-01

Underwater visual census (UVC) is the most common approach for estimating diversity, abundance and size of reef fishes in shallow and clear waters. Abundance estimation through UVC is particularly problematic in species occurring at low densities and/or highly aggregated because of their high variability at both spatial and temporal scales. The statistical power of experiments involving UVC techniques may be increased by augmenting the number of replicates or the area surveyed. In this work we present and test the efficiency of an UVC method based on diver towed GPS, the Tracked Roaming Transect (TRT), designed to maximize transect length (and thus the surveyed area) with respect to diving time invested in monitoring, as compared to Conventional Strip Transects (CST). Additionally, we analyze the effect of increasing transect width and length on the precision of density estimates by comparing TRT vs. CST methods using different fixed widths of 6 and 20 m (FW3 and FW10, respectively) and the Distance Sampling (DS) method, in which perpendicular distance of each fish or group of fishes to the transect line is estimated by divers up to 20 m from the transect line. The TRT was 74% more time and cost efficient than the CST (all transect widths considered together) and, for a given time, the use of TRT and/or increasing the transect width increased the precision of density estimates. In addition, since with the DS method distances of fishes to the transect line have to be estimated, and not measured directly as in terrestrial environments, errors in estimations of perpendicular distances can seriously affect DS density estimations. To assess the occurrence of distance estimation errors and their dependence on the observer's experience, a field experiment using wooden fish models was performed. We tested the precision and accuracy of density estimators based on fixed widths and the DS method. The accuracy of the estimates was measured comparing the actual total abundance with those estimated by divers using FW3, FW10, and DS estimators. Density estimates differed by 13% (range 0.1-31%) from the actual values (average = 13.09%; median = 14.16%). Based on our results we encourage the use of the Tracked Roaming Transect with Distance Sampling (TRT+DS) method for improving density estimates of species occurring at low densities and/or highly aggregated, as well as for exploratory rapid-assessment surveys in which divers could gather spatial ecological and ecosystem information on large areas during UVC.

The "Tracked Roaming Transect" and distance sampling methods increase the efficiency of underwater visual censuses

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Underwater visual census (UVC) is the most common approach for estimating diversity, abundance and size of reef fishes in shallow and clear waters. Abundance estimation through UVC is particularly problematic in species occurring at low densities and/or highly aggregated because of their high variability at both spatial and temporal scales. The statistical power of experiments involving UVC techniques may be increased by augmenting the number of replicates or the area surveyed. In this work we present and test the efficiency of an UVC method based on diver towed GPS, the Tracked Roaming Transect (TRT), designed to maximize transect length (and thus the surveyed area) with respect to diving time invested in monitoring, as compared to Conventional Strip Transects (CST). Additionally, we analyze the effect of increasing transect width and length on the precision of density estimates by comparing TRT vs. CST methods using different fixed widths of 6 and 20 m (FW3 and FW10, respectively) and the Distance Sampling (DS) method, in which perpendicular distance of each fish or group of fishes to the transect line is estimated by divers up to 20 m from the transect line. The TRT was 74% more time and cost efficient than the CST (all transect widths considered together) and, for a given time, the use of TRT and/or increasing the transect width increased the precision of density estimates. In addition, since with the DS method distances of fishes to the transect line have to be estimated, and not measured directly as in terrestrial environments, errors in estimations of perpendicular distances can seriously affect DS density estimations. To assess the occurrence of distance estimation errors and their dependence on the observer’s experience, a field experiment using wooden fish models was performed. We tested the precision and accuracy of density estimators based on fixed widths and the DS method. The accuracy of the estimates was measured comparing the actual total abundance with those estimated by divers using FW3, FW10, and DS estimators. Density estimates differed by 13% (range 0.1–31%) from the actual values (average = 13.09%; median = 14.16%). Based on our results we encourage the use of the Tracked Roaming Transect with Distance Sampling (TRT+DS) method for improving density estimates of species occurring at low densities and/or highly aggregated, as well as for exploratory rapid-assessment surveys in which divers could gather spatial ecological and ecosystem information on large areas during UVC. PMID:29324887

Nucleosynthesis in neutrino-driven, aspherical Population III supernovae

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fujimoto, Shin-ichiro; Hashimoto, Masa-aki; Ono, Masaomi; Kotake, Kei

2012-09-01

We investigate explosive nucleosynthesis during neutrino-driven, aspherical supernova (SN) explosion aided by standing accretion shock instability (SASI), based on two-dimensional hydrodynamic simulations of the explosion of 11, 15, 20, 25, 30 and 40M ⊙ stars with zero metallicity. The magnitude and asymmetry of the explosion energy are estimated with simulations, for a given set of neutrino luminosities and temperatures, not as in the previous study in which the explosion is manually and spherically initiated by means of a thermal bomb or a piston and also some artificial mixing procedures are applied for the estimate of abundances of the SN ejecta. By post-processing calculations with a large nuclear reaction network, we have evaluated abundances and masses of ejecta from the aspherical SNe. We find that matter mixing induced via SASI is important for the abundant production of nuclei with atomic number >= 21, in particular Sc, which is underproduced in the spherical models without artificial mixing. We also find that the IMF-averaged abundances are similar to those observed in extremely metal poor stars. However, observed [K/Fe] cannot be reproduced with our aspherical SN models.

Dynamics of a low-density tiger population in Southeast Asia in the context of improved law enforcement.

PubMed

Duangchantrasiri, Somphot; Umponjan, Mayuree; Simcharoen, Saksit; Pattanavibool, Anak; Chaiwattana, Soontorn; Maneerat, Sompoch; Kumar, N Samba; Jathanna, Devcharan; Srivathsa, Arjun; Karanth, K Ullas

2016-06-01

Recovering small populations of threatened species is an important global conservation strategy. Monitoring the anticipated recovery, however, often relies on uncertain abundance indices rather than on rigorous demographic estimates. To counter the severe threat from poaching of wild tigers (Panthera tigris), the Government of Thailand established an intensive patrolling system in 2005 to protect and recover its largest source population in Huai Kha Khaeng Wildlife Sanctuary. Concurrently, we assessed the dynamics of this tiger population over the next 8 years with rigorous photographic capture-recapture methods. From 2006 to 2012, we sampled across 624-1026 km(2) with 137-200 camera traps. Cameras deployed for 21,359 trap days yielded photographic records of 90 distinct individuals. We used closed model Bayesian spatial capture-recapture methods to estimate tiger abundances annually. Abundance estimates were integrated with likelihood-based open model analyses to estimate rates of annual and overall rates of survival, recruitment, and changes in abundance. Estimates of demographic parameters fluctuated widely: annual density ranged from 1.25 to 2.01 tigers/100 km(2) , abundance from 35 to 58 tigers, survival from 79.6% to 95.5%, and annual recruitment from 0 to 25 tigers. The number of distinct individuals photographed demonstrates the value of photographic capture-recapture methods for assessments of population dynamics in rare and elusive species that are identifiable from natural markings. Possibly because of poaching pressure, overall tiger densities at Huai Kha Khaeng were 82-90% lower than in ecologically comparable sites in India. However, intensified patrolling after 2006 appeared to reduce poaching and was correlated with marginal improvement in tiger survival and recruitment. Our results suggest that population recovery of low-density tiger populations may be slower than anticipated by current global strategies aimed at doubling the number of wild tigers in a decade. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.

Analyses of the Microbial Diversity across the Human Microbiome

PubMed Central

Li, Kelvin; Bihan, Monika; Yooseph, Shibu; Methé, Barbara A.

2012-01-01

Analysis of human body microbial diversity is fundamental to understanding community structure, biology and ecology. The National Institutes of Health Human Microbiome Project (HMP) has provided an unprecedented opportunity to examine microbial diversity within and across body habitats and individuals through pyrosequencing-based profiling of 16 S rRNA gene sequences (16 S) from habits of the oral, skin, distal gut, and vaginal body regions from over 200 healthy individuals enabling the application of statistical techniques. In this study, two approaches were applied to elucidate the nature and extent of human microbiome diversity. First, bootstrap and parametric curve fitting techniques were evaluated to estimate the maximum number of unique taxa, Smax, and taxa discovery rate for habitats across individuals. Next, our results demonstrated that the variation of diversity within low abundant taxa across habitats and individuals was not sufficiently quantified with standard ecological diversity indices. This impact from low abundant taxa motivated us to introduce a novel rank-based diversity measure, the Tail statistic, (“τ”), based on the standard deviation of the rank abundance curve if made symmetric by reflection around the most abundant taxon. Due to τ’s greater sensitivity to low abundant taxa, its application to diversity estimation of taxonomic units using taxonomic dependent and independent methods revealed a greater range of values recovered between individuals versus body habitats, and different patterns of diversity within habitats. The greatest range of τ values within and across individuals was found in stool, which also exhibited the most undiscovered taxa. Oral and skin habitats revealed variable diversity patterns, while vaginal habitats were consistently the least diverse. Collectively, these results demonstrate the importance, and motivate the introduction, of several visualization and analysis methods tuned specifically for next-generation sequence data, further revealing that low abundant taxa serve as an important reservoir of genetic diversity in the human microbiome. PMID:22719823

Abundances of sulfur in the Milky Way Disk from Peimbert Type II planetary nebulae

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Milingo, Jacquelynne Brenda

2000-08-01

Sulfur abundance gradients and heavy element ratios for the Milky Way Disk are constructed based upon newly acquired spectrophotometry of Type II planetary nebulae (PN). These spectra extend from 3600-9600 angstroms allowing us to use the [SIII] 9069 and 9532 angstrom lines to improve upon earlier sulfur abundance estimates. Considering a significant portion of sulfur in PN exists in the S(+2) ionization stage (and higher) this method should allow us to extrapolate more reliable total element abundance from ionic abundances. Given the progenitor mass and location of Type II PN (close to the Galactic disk), this sample of objects is free of nucleosynthetic self-contamination and thus their S abundances in particular are expected to reflect levels of these elements in the interstellar medium at the time of PN progenitor formation. These sulfur abundances provide constraints for studying various aspects of GCE such as massive star yields and the distribution of S across the Milky Way disk.

Optical determination of material abundances by using neural networks for the derivation of spectral filters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krippner, Wolfgang; Wagner, Felix; Bauer, Sebastian; Puente León, Fernando

2017-06-01

Using appropriately designed spectral filters allows to optically determine material abundances. While an infinite number of possibilities exist for determining spectral filters, we take advantage of using neural networks to derive spectral filters leading to precise estimations. To overcome some drawbacks that regularly influence the determination of material abundances using hyperspectral data, we incorporate the spectral variability of the raw materials into the training of the considered neural networks. As a main result, we successfully classify quantized material abundances optically. Thus, the main part of the high computational load, which belongs to the use of neural networks, is avoided. In addition, the derived material abundances become invariant against spatially varying illumination intensity as a remarkable benefit in comparison with spectral filters based on the Moore-Penrose pseudoinverse, for instance.

Internal Variations in Empirical Oxygen Abundances for Giant H II Regions in the Galaxy NGC 2403

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mao, Ye-Wei; Lin, Lin; Kong, Xu

2018-02-01

This paper presents a spectroscopic investigation of 11 {{H}} {{II}} regions in the nearby galaxy NGC 2403. The {{H}} {{II}} regions are observed with a long-slit spectrograph mounted on the 2.16 m telescope at XingLong station of National Astronomical Observatories of China. For each of the {{H}} {{II}} regions, spectra are extracted at different nebular radii along the slit-coverage. Oxygen abundances are empirically estimated from the strong-line indices R23, N2O2, O3N2, and N2 for each spectrophotometric unit, with both observation- and model-based calibrations adopted into the derivation. Radial profiles of these diversely estimated abundances are drawn for each nebula. In the results, the oxygen abundances separately estimated with the prescriptions on the basis of observations and models, albeit from the same spectral index, systematically deviate from each other; at the same time, the spectral indices R23 and N2O2 are distributed with flat profiles, whereas N2 and O3N2 exhibit apparent gradients with the nebular radius. Because our study naturally samples various ionization levels, which inherently decline at larger radii within individual {{H}} {{II}} regions, the radial distributions indicate not only the robustness of R23 and N2O2 against ionization variations but also the sensitivity of N2 and O3N2 to the ionization parameter. The results in this paper provide observational corroboration of the theoretical prediction about the deviation in the empirical abundance diagnostics. Our future work is planned to investigate metal-poor {{H}} {{II}} regions with measurable T e, in an attempt to recalibrate the strong-line indices and consequently disclose the cause of the discrepancies between the empirical oxygen abundances.

Mountain goat abundance and population trends in the Olympic Mountains, northwestern Washington, 2016

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jenkins, Kurt J.; Happe, Patricia J.; Beirne, Katherine F.; Baccus, William T.

2016-11-30

Executive SummaryWe estimated abundance and trends of non-native mountain goats (Oreamnos americanus) in the Olympic Mountains of northwestern Washington, based on aerial surveys conducted during July 13–24, 2016. The surveys produced the seventh population estimate since the first formal aerial surveys were conducted in 1983. This was the second population estimate since we adjusted survey area boundaries and adopted new estimation procedures in 2011. Before 2011, surveys encompassed all areas free of glacial ice at elevations above 1,520 meters (m), but in 2011 we expanded survey unit boundaries to include suitable mountain goat habitats at elevations between 1,425 and 1,520 m. In 2011, we also began applying a sightability correction model allowing us to estimate undercounting bias associated with aerial surveys and to adjust survey results accordingly. The 2016 surveys were carried out by National Park Service (NPS) personnel in Olympic National Park and by Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife (WDFW) biologists in Olympic National Forest and in the southeastern part of Olympic National Park. We surveyed a total of 59 survey units, comprising 55 percent of the 60,218-hectare survey area. We estimated a mountain goat population of 623 ±43 (standard error, SE). Based on this level of estimation uncertainty, the 95-percent confidence interval ranged from 561 to 741 mountain goats at the time of the survey.We examined the rate of increase of the mountain goat population by comparing the current population estimate to previous estimates from 2004 and 2011. Because aerial survey boundaries changed between 2004 and 2016, we recomputed population estimates for 2011 and 2016 surveys based on the revised survey boundaries as well as the previously defined boundaries so that estimates were directly comparable across years. Additionally, because the Mount Washington survey unit was not surveyed in 2011, we used results from an independent survey of the Mount Washington unit conducted by WDFW biologists in 2012 and combined it with the 2011 survey results to produce a complete survey conducted over 2 years. The revised estimates of mountain goat abundance occurring at elevations above 1,520 m were 230 ±19 (SE) in 2004, 350 ±41 (SE) in 2011, and 584 ±39 (SE) in 2016. The difference between the overall 2016 population estimate (623 ±43 [SE]) and the smaller estimate (584 ±39 [SE]) reflected the number of mountain goats counted in the expanded survey areas added in 2011. Based on comparisons within the standardized survey boundary, the mountain goat population in the Olympic Mountains increased at an average finite rate of 6 percent annually from 2004 to 2011, 11 percent annually from 2011 to 2016, and 8 percent annually over the combined period. We caution that the population may have been underestimated in 2011 because of record heavy snows persisting into the survey season. Therefore, the rate of population increase from 2011 and 2016 may be overestimated. The rate of increase measured over the combined period (2004–16) may be more representative of the recent population growth. We conclude that the abundance of mountain goats has increased for more than a decade, and if the recent average rate of population growth were sustained, the population would increase by 45 percent over the next 5 years.

Abundance and distribution of feral pigs at Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge, 2010-2013

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hess, Steven C.; Leopold, Christina R.; Kendall, Steven J.

2013-01-01

The Hakalau Forest Unit of the Big Island National Wildlife Refuge Complex has intensively managed feral pigs (Sus scrofa) and monitored feral pig presence with surveys of all managed areas since 1988. Results of all available data regarding pig management activities through 2004 were compiled and analyzed, but no further analyses had been conducted since then. The objective of this report was to analyze recent feral ungulate surveys at the Hakalau Forest Unit to determine current pig abundance and distribution. Activity indices for feral pigs, consisting of the presence of fresh or intermediate sign at 422 stations, each with approximately 20 sample plots, were compiled for years 2010–2013. A calibrated model based on the number of pigs removed from one management unit and concurrent activity surveys was applied to estimate pig abundance in other management units. Although point estimates appeared to decrease from 489.1 (±105.6) in 2010 to 407.6 (±88.0) in 2013, 95% confidence intervals overlapped, indicating no significant change in pig abundance within all management units. Nonetheless, there were significant declines in pig abundance over the four-year period within management units 1, 6, and 7. Areas where pig abundance remained high include the southern portion of Unit 2. Results of these surveys will be useful for directing management actions towards specific management units.

SP_Ace: Stellar Parameters And Chemical abundances Estimator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boeche, C.; Grebel, E. K.

2018-05-01

SP_Ace (Stellar Parameters And Chemical abundances Estimator) estimates the stellar parameters Teff, log g, [M/H], and elemental abundances. It employs 1D stellar atmosphere models in Local Thermodynamic Equilibrium (LTE). The code is highly automated and suitable for analyzing the spectra of large spectroscopic surveys with low or medium spectral resolution (R = 2000-20 000). A web service for calculating these values with the software is also available.

Comparison of hoop-net trapping and visual surveys to monitor abundance of the Rio Grande cooter (Pseudemys gorzugi).

PubMed

Mali, Ivana; Duarte, Adam; Forstner, Michael R J

2018-01-01

Abundance estimates play an important part in the regulatory and conservation decision-making process. It is important to correct monitoring data for imperfect detection when using these data to track spatial and temporal variation in abundance, especially in the case of rare and elusive species. This paper presents the first attempt to estimate abundance of the Rio Grande cooter ( Pseudemys gorzugi ) while explicitly considering the detection process. Specifically, in 2016 we monitored this rare species at two sites along the Black River, New Mexico via traditional baited hoop-net traps and less invasive visual surveys to evaluate the efficacy of these two sampling designs. We fitted the Huggins closed-capture estimator to estimate capture probabilities using the trap data and distance sampling models to estimate detection probabilities using the visual survey data. We found that only the visual survey with the highest number of observed turtles resulted in similar abundance estimates to those estimated using the trap data. However, the estimates of abundance from the remaining visual survey data were highly variable and often underestimated abundance relative to the estimates from the trap data. We suspect this pattern is related to changes in the basking behavior of the species and, thus, the availability of turtles to be detected even though all visual surveys were conducted when environmental conditions were similar. Regardless, we found that riverine habitat conditions limited our ability to properly conduct visual surveys at one site. Collectively, this suggests visual surveys may not be an effective sample design for this species in this river system. When analyzing the trap data, we found capture probabilities to be highly variable across sites and between age classes and that recapture probabilities were much lower than initial capture probabilities, highlighting the importance of accounting for detectability when monitoring this species. Although baited hoop-net traps seem to be an effective sampling design, it is important to note that this method required a relatively high trap effort to reliably estimate abundance. This information will be useful when developing a larger-scale, long-term monitoring program for this species of concern.

Biodiversity of Cryptofauna (Decapods) and Their Correlation with Dead Coral Pocillopora sp. Volume at Bunaken Island, North Sulawesi

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malik, Muhammad Danie Al; Kholilah, Nenik; Kurniasih, Eka Maya; Sembiring, Andrianus; Pertiwi, Ni Putu Dian; Ambariyanto, Ambariyanto; Munasik, Munasik; Meyer, Christopher

2018-02-01

Decapod is known as cryptofauna which is also important component of coral reef biodiversity. Dead corals are one of the area which usually used by decapods to live. This research aims to observe the diversity of cryptofauna (decapods) and the correlation between the number of decapods with the volume of dead corals. Ten dead corals, Pocillopora sp., were collected at 5 m depth at Bunaken Island. These dead corals were measured their volume and all decapods found were counted and identified up to family level. The richness and abundance were analyzed using ACE (Abundance-Based Coverage Estimates) and Chao 1. The results show that there were in total 474 decapods from 13 families found within all ten dead corals. Xanthidae was showed as the most abundance family among all, with 161 individual. Diversity index of decapods was found at medium category with value of 2.01. Rarefaction curve based on richness and abundance showed an estimation of 13 families. The result also indicated that the asymptote stage was reached on the 10th dead coral samples. The correlation between decapod with the volume of dead coral were showed significant positive correlation (r = 0.673, p<0.05). This result provides benefits to basic knowledge about diversity of decapod which one of cryptofauna as component fauna have a habitat on coral reef ecosystem.

[Study of spatial stratified sampling strategy of Oncomelania hupensis snail survey based on plant abundance].

PubMed

Xun-Ping, W; An, Z

2017-07-27

Objective To optimize and simplify the survey method of Oncomelania hupensis snails in marshland endemic regions of schistosomiasis, so as to improve the precision, efficiency and economy of the snail survey. Methods A snail sampling strategy (Spatial Sampling Scenario of Oncomelania based on Plant Abundance, SOPA) which took the plant abundance as auxiliary variable was explored and an experimental study in a 50 m×50 m plot in a marshland in the Poyang Lake region was performed. Firstly, the push broom surveyed data was stratified into 5 layers by the plant abundance data; then, the required numbers of optimal sampling points of each layer through Hammond McCullagh equation were calculated; thirdly, every sample point in the line with the Multiple Directional Interpolation (MDI) placement scheme was pinpointed; and finally, the comparison study among the outcomes of the spatial random sampling strategy, the traditional systematic sampling method, the spatial stratified sampling method, Sandwich spatial sampling and inference and SOPA was performed. Results The method (SOPA) proposed in this study had the minimal absolute error of 0.213 8; and the traditional systematic sampling method had the largest estimate, and the absolute error was 0.924 4. Conclusion The snail sampling strategy (SOPA) proposed in this study obtains the higher estimation accuracy than the other four methods.

Geostatistical Modeling of Sediment Abundance in a Heterogeneous Basalt Aquifer at the Idaho National Laboratory, Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

Welhan, John A.; Farabaugh, Renee L.; Merrick, Melissa J.; Anderson, Steven R.

2007-01-01

The spatial distribution of sediment in the eastern Snake River Plain aquifer was evaluated and modeled to improve the parameterization of hydraulic conductivity (K) for a subregional-scale ground-water flow model being developed by the U.S. Geological Survey. The aquifer is hosted within a layered series of permeable basalts within which intercalated beds of fine-grained sediment constitute local confining units. These sediments have K values as much as six orders of magnitude lower than the most permeable basalt, and previous flow-model calibrations have shown that hydraulic conductivity is sensitive to the proportion of intercalated sediment. Stratigraphic data in the form of sediment thicknesses from 333 boreholes in and around the Idaho National Laboratory were evaluated as grouped subsets of lithologic units (composite units) corresponding to their relative time-stratigraphic position. The results indicate that median sediment abundances of the stratigraphic units below the water table are statistically invariant (stationary) in a spatial sense and provide evidence of stationarity across geologic time, as well. Based on these results, the borehole data were kriged as two-dimensional spatial data sets representing the sediment content of the layers that discretize the ground-water flow model in the uppermost 300 feet of the aquifer. Multiple indicator kriging (mIK) was used to model the geographic distribution of median sediment abundance within each layer by defining the local cumulative frequency distribution (CFD) of sediment via indicator variograms defined at multiple thresholds. The mIK approach is superior to ordinary kriging because it provides a statistically best estimate of sediment abundance (the local median) drawn from the distribution of local borehole data, independent of any assumption of normality. A methodology is proposed for delineating and constraining the assignment of hydraulic conductivity zones for parameter estimation, based on the locally estimated CFDs and relative kriging uncertainty. A kriging-based methodology improves the spatial resolution of hydraulic property zones that can be considered during parameter estimation and should improve calibration performance and sensitivity by more accurately reflecting the nuances of sediment distribution within the aquifer.

Reef fish communities are spooked by scuba surveys and may take hours to recover

PubMed Central

Cheal, Alistair J.; Miller, Ian R.

2018-01-01

Ecological monitoring programs typically aim to detect changes in the abundance of species of conservation concern or which reflect system status. Coral reef fish assemblages are functionally important for reef health and these are most commonly monitored using underwater visual surveys (UVS) by divers. In addition to estimating numbers, most programs also collect estimates of fish lengths to allow calculation of biomass, an important determinant of a fish’s functional impact. However, diver surveys may be biased because fishes may either avoid or are attracted to divers and the process of estimating fish length could result in fish counts that differ from those made without length estimations. Here we investigated whether (1) general diver disturbance and (2) the additional task of estimating fish lengths affected estimates of reef fish abundance and species richness during UVS, and for how long. Initial estimates of abundance and species richness were significantly higher than those made on the same section of reef after diver disturbance. However, there was no evidence that estimating fish lengths at the same time as abundance resulted in counts different from those made when estimating abundance alone. Similarly, there was little consistent bias among observers. Estimates of the time for fish taxa that avoided divers after initial contact to return to initial levels of abundance varied from three to 17 h, with one group of exploited fishes showing initial attraction to divers that declined over the study period. Our finding that many reef fishes may disperse for such long periods after initial contact with divers suggests that monitoring programs should take great care to minimise diver disturbance prior to surveys. PMID:29844998

Astrophysical S-factor for destructive reactions of lithium-7 in big bang nucleosynthesis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Komatsubara, Tetsuro; Kwon, YoungKwan; Moon, JunYoung

One of the most prominent success with the Big Bang models is the precise reproduction of mass abundance ratio for {sup 4}He. In spite of the success, abundances of lithium isotopes are still inconsistent between observations and their calculated results, which is known as lithium abundance problem. Since the calculations were based on the experimental reaction data together with theoretical estimations, more precise experimental measurements may improve the knowledge of the Big Bang nucleosynthesis. As one of the destruction process of lithium-7, we have performed measurements for the reaction cross sections of the {sup 7}L({sup 3}He,p){sup 9}Be reaction.

A comparison of abundance estimates from extended batch-marking and Jolly–Seber-type experiments

PubMed Central

Cowen, Laura L E; Besbeas, Panagiotis; Morgan, Byron J T; Schwarz, Carl J

2014-01-01

Little attention has been paid to the use of multi-sample batch-marking studies, as it is generally assumed that an individual's capture history is necessary for fully efficient estimates. However, recently, Huggins et al. (2010) present a pseudo-likelihood for a multi-sample batch-marking study where they used estimating equations to solve for survival and capture probabilities and then derived abundance estimates using a Horvitz–Thompson-type estimator. We have developed and maximized the likelihood for batch-marking studies. We use data simulated from a Jolly–Seber-type study and convert this to what would have been obtained from an extended batch-marking study. We compare our abundance estimates obtained from the Crosbie–Manly–Arnason–Schwarz (CMAS) model with those of the extended batch-marking model to determine the efficiency of collecting and analyzing batch-marking data. We found that estimates of abundance were similar for all three estimators: CMAS, Huggins, and our likelihood. Gains are made when using unique identifiers and employing the CMAS model in terms of precision; however, the likelihood typically had lower mean square error than the pseudo-likelihood method of Huggins et al. (2010). When faced with designing a batch-marking study, researchers can be confident in obtaining unbiased abundance estimators. Furthermore, they can design studies in order to reduce mean square error by manipulating capture probabilities and sample size. PMID:24558576

Long-term decline and short-term crash of the once abundant Rusty Blackbird

USGS Publications Warehouse

Greenberg, R.; Blancher, P.; Niven, D.; Droege, S.

2008-01-01

The Rusty Blackbird (Euphagus carolinus), a formerly common breeding species of boreal wetlands, has exhibited the most marked decline of any North American landbird. North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) trends in abundance are estimated to be -12.5% / yr over the last 40 years, which is tantamount to a >95% cumulative decline. Trends in abundance calculated from Christmas Bird Counts (CBC) for a similar period indicate a range-wide decline of -5.6% / yr. Qualitative analyses of ornithological accounts suggest the species has been declining for over a century before the period covered by the estimated declines. Several studies document range retraction in the southern boreal forest, whereas limited data suggest that abundance may be more stable in more northerly areas. This pattern is both supported and contradicted by winter declines based in CBC data. The lower estimates of decline in the CBC data compared to BBS is consistent with the idea that the coverage of BBS is biased towards the southern boreal whereas CBC covers the entire winter range. However, the CBC declines are similar between the South Atlantic coast (with populations derived from the southeastern boreal) and the Mississippi Valley (populations from the northwest boreal). The major hypotheses for the decline include degradation of boreal habitats from logging and agricultural agricultural development, mercury contamination, and wetland desiccation resulting from global warming. Other likely reasons for decline include loss or degradation of wooded wetlands of the southeastern U.S and mortality associated with abatement efforts targeting nuisance blackbirds. We present a matrix of hypotheses and predictions that test them based on the geography of decline and more detailed indicators of population health which should form the strategic basis of future research.

Drastic population fluctuations explain the rapid extinction of the passenger pigeon.

PubMed

Hung, Chih-Ming; Shaner, Pei-Jen L; Zink, Robert M; Liu, Wei-Chung; Chu, Te-Chin; Huang, Wen-San; Li, Shou-Hsien

2014-07-22

To assess the role of human disturbances in species' extinction requires an understanding of the species population history before human impact. The passenger pigeon was once the most abundant bird in the world, with a population size estimated at 3-5 billion in the 1800s; its abrupt extinction in 1914 raises the question of how such an abundant bird could have been driven to extinction in mere decades. Although human exploitation is often blamed, the role of natural population dynamics in the passenger pigeon's extinction remains unexplored. Applying high-throughput sequencing technologies to obtain sequences from most of the genome, we calculated that the passenger pigeon's effective population size throughout the last million years was persistently about 1/10,000 of the 1800's estimated number of individuals, a ratio 1,000-times lower than typically found. This result suggests that the passenger pigeon was not always super abundant but experienced dramatic population fluctuations, resembling those of an "outbreak" species. Ecological niche models supported inference of drastic changes in the extent of its breeding range over the last glacial-interglacial cycle. An estimate of acorn-based carrying capacity during the past 21,000 y showed great year-to-year variations. Based on our results, we hypothesize that ecological conditions that dramatically reduced population size under natural conditions could have interacted with human exploitation in causing the passenger pigeon's rapid demise. Our study illustrates that even species as abundant as the passenger pigeon can be vulnerable to human threats if they are subject to dramatic population fluctuations, and provides a new perspective on the greatest human-caused extinction in recorded history.

Monitoring Butterfly Abundance: Beyond Pollard Walks

PubMed Central

Pellet, Jérôme; Bried, Jason T.; Parietti, David; Gander, Antoine; Heer, Patrick O.; Cherix, Daniel; Arlettaz, Raphaël

2012-01-01

Most butterfly monitoring protocols rely on counts along transects (Pollard walks) to generate species abundance indices and track population trends. It is still too often ignored that a population count results from two processes: the biological process (true abundance) and the statistical process (our ability to properly quantify abundance). Because individual detectability tends to vary in space (e.g., among sites) and time (e.g., among years), it remains unclear whether index counts truly reflect population sizes and trends. This study compares capture-mark-recapture (absolute abundance) and count-index (relative abundance) monitoring methods in three species (Maculinea nausithous and Iolana iolas: Lycaenidae; Minois dryas: Satyridae) in contrasted habitat types. We demonstrate that intraspecific variability in individual detectability under standard monitoring conditions is probably the rule rather than the exception, which questions the reliability of count-based indices to estimate and compare specific population abundance. Our results suggest that the accuracy of count-based methods depends heavily on the ecology and behavior of the target species, as well as on the type of habitat in which surveys take place. Monitoring programs designed to assess the abundance and trends in butterfly populations should incorporate a measure of detectability. We discuss the relative advantages and inconveniences of current monitoring methods and analytical approaches with respect to the characteristics of the species under scrutiny and resources availability. PMID:22859980

Modeling trends from North American Breeding Bird Survey data: a spatially explicit approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bled, Florent; Sauer, John R.; Pardieck, Keith L.; Doherty, Paul; Royle, J. Andy

2013-01-01

Population trends, defined as interval-specific proportional changes in population size, are often used to help identify species of conservation interest. Efficient modeling of such trends depends on the consideration of the correlation of population changes with key spatial and environmental covariates. This can provide insights into causal mechanisms and allow spatially explicit summaries at scales that are of interest to management agencies. We expand the hierarchical modeling framework used in the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) by developing a spatially explicit model of temporal trend using a conditional autoregressive (CAR) model. By adopting a formal spatial model for abundance, we produce spatially explicit abundance and trend estimates. Analyses based on large-scale geographic strata such as Bird Conservation Regions (BCR) can suffer from basic imbalances in spatial sampling. Our approach addresses this issue by providing an explicit weighting based on the fundamental sample allocation unit of the BBS. We applied the spatial model to three species from the BBS. Species have been chosen based upon their well-known population change patterns, which allows us to evaluate the quality of our model and the biological meaning of our estimates. We also compare our results with the ones obtained for BCRs using a nonspatial hierarchical model (Sauer and Link 2011). Globally, estimates for mean trends are consistent between the two approaches but spatial estimates provide much more precise trend estimates in regions on the edges of species ranges that were poorly estimated in non-spatial analyses. Incorporating a spatial component in the analysis not only allows us to obtain relevant and biologically meaningful estimates for population trends, but also enables us to provide a flexible framework in order to obtain trend estimates for any area.

Estimating site occupancy and abundance using indirect detection indices

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stanley, T.R.; Royle, J. Andrew

2005-01-01

Knowledge of factors influencing animal distribution and abundance is essential in many areas of ecological research, management, and policy-making. Because common methods for modeling and estimating abundance (e.g., capture-recapture, distance sampling) are sometimes not practical for large areas or elusive species, indices are sometimes used as surrogate measures of abundance. We present an extension of the Royle and Nichols (2003) generalization of the MacKenzie et al. (2002) site-occupancy model that incorporates length of the sampling interval into the, model for detection probability. As a result, we obtain a modeling framework that shows how useful information can be extracted from a class of index methods we call indirect detection indices (IDIs). Examples of IDIs include scent station, tracking tube, snow track, tracking plate, and hair snare surveys. Our model is maximum likelihood, and it can be used to estimate site occupancy and model factors influencing patterns of occupancy and abundance in space. Under certain circumstances, it can also be used to estimate abundance. We evaluated model properties using Monte Carlo simulations and illustrate the method with tracking tube and scent station data. We believe this model will be a useful tool for determining factors that influence animal distribution and abundance.

A surplus production model including environmental effects: Application to the Senegalese white shrimp stocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thiaw, Modou; Gascuel, Didier; Jouffre, Didier; Thiaw, Omar Thiom

2009-12-01

In Senegal, two stocks of white shrimp ( Penaeusnotialis) are intensively exploited, one in the north and another in the south. We used surplus production models including environmental effects to analyse their changes in abundance over the past 10 years and to estimate their Maximum Sustainable Yield (MSY) and the related fishing effort ( EMSY). First, yearly abundance indices were estimated from commercial statistics using GLM techniques. Then, two environmental indices were alternatively tested in the model: the coastal upwelling intensity from wind speeds provided by the SeaWifs database and the primary production derived from satellite infrared images of chlorophyll a. Models were fitted, with or without the environmental effect, to the 1996-2005 time series. They express stock abundance and catches as functions of the fishing effort and the environmental index (when considered). For the northern stock, fishing effort and abundance fluctuate over the period without any clear trends. The model based on the upwelling index explains 64.9% of the year-to-year variability. It shows that the stock was slightly overexploited in 2002-2003 and is now close to full exploitation. Stock abundance strongly depends on environmental conditions; consequently, the MSY estimate varies from 300 to 900 tons according to the upwelling intensity. For the southern stock, fishing effort has strongly increased over the past 10 years, while abundance has been reduced 4-fold. The environment has a significant effect on abundance but only explains a small part of the year-to-year variability. The best fit is obtained using the primary production index ( R2 = 0.75), and the stock is now significantly overfished regardless of environmental conditions. MSY varies from 1200 to 1800 tons according to environmental conditions. Finally, in northern Senegal, the upwelling is highly variable from year to year and constitutes the major factor determining productivity. In the south, hydrodynamic processes seem to dominate and determine the primary production and the white shrimp stock productivity as well.

Hankin and Reeves' approach to estimating fish abundance in small streams: limitations and alternatives

Treesearch

William L. Thompson

2003-01-01

Hankin and Reeves' (1988) approach to estimating fish abundance in small streams has been applied in stream fish studies across North America. However, their population estimator relies on two key assumptions: (1) removal estimates are equal to the true numbers of fish, and (2) removal estimates are highly correlated with snorkel counts within a subset of sampled...

Benchmarking viromics: an in silico evaluation of metagenome-enabled estimates of viral community composition and diversity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Roux, Simon; Emerson, Joanne B.; Eloe-Fadrosh, Emiley A.

BackgroundViral metagenomics (viromics) is increasingly used to obtain uncultivated viral genomes, evaluate community diversity, and assess ecological hypotheses. While viromic experimental methods are relatively mature and widely accepted by the research community, robust bioinformatics standards remain to be established. Here we usedin silicomock viral communities to evaluate the viromic sequence-to-ecological-inference pipeline, including (i) read pre-processing and metagenome assembly, (ii) thresholds applied to estimate viral relative abundances based on read mapping to assembled contigs, and (iii) normalization methods applied to the matrix of viral relative abundances for alpha and beta diversity estimates. ResultsTools specifically designed for metagenomes, specifically metaSPAdes, MEGAHIT, andmore » IDBA-UD, were the most effective at assembling viromes. Read pre-processing, such as partitioning, had virtually no impact on assembly output, but may be useful when hardware is limited. Viral populations with 2–5 × coverage typically assembled well, whereas lesser coverage led to fragmented assembly. Strain heterogeneity within populations hampered assembly, especially when strains were closely related (average nucleotide identity, or ANI ≥97%) and when the most abundant strain represented <50% of the population. Viral community composition assessments based on read recruitment were generally accurate when the following thresholds for detection were applied: (i) ≥10 kb contig lengths to define populations, (ii) coverage defined from reads mapping at ≥90% identity, and (iii) ≥75% of contig length with ≥1 × coverage. Finally, although data are limited to the most abundant viruses in a community, alpha and beta diversity patterns were robustly estimated (±10%) when comparing samples of similar sequencing depth, but more divergent (up to 80%) when sequencing depth was uneven across the dataset. In the latter cases, the use of normalization methods specifically developed for metagenomes provided the best estimates. ConclusionsThese simulations provide benchmarks for selecting analysis cut-offs and establish that an optimized sample-to-ecological-inference viromics pipeline is robust for making ecological inferences from natural viral communities. Continued development to better accessing RNA, rare, and/or diverse viral populations and improved reference viral genome availability will alleviate many of viromics remaining limitations.« less

Benchmarking viromics: an in silico evaluation of metagenome-enabled estimates of viral community composition and diversity

DOE PAGES

Roux, Simon; Emerson, Joanne B.; Eloe-Fadrosh, Emiley A.; ...

2017-09-21

BackgroundViral metagenomics (viromics) is increasingly used to obtain uncultivated viral genomes, evaluate community diversity, and assess ecological hypotheses. While viromic experimental methods are relatively mature and widely accepted by the research community, robust bioinformatics standards remain to be established. Here we usedin silicomock viral communities to evaluate the viromic sequence-to-ecological-inference pipeline, including (i) read pre-processing and metagenome assembly, (ii) thresholds applied to estimate viral relative abundances based on read mapping to assembled contigs, and (iii) normalization methods applied to the matrix of viral relative abundances for alpha and beta diversity estimates. ResultsTools specifically designed for metagenomes, specifically metaSPAdes, MEGAHIT, andmore » IDBA-UD, were the most effective at assembling viromes. Read pre-processing, such as partitioning, had virtually no impact on assembly output, but may be useful when hardware is limited. Viral populations with 2–5 × coverage typically assembled well, whereas lesser coverage led to fragmented assembly. Strain heterogeneity within populations hampered assembly, especially when strains were closely related (average nucleotide identity, or ANI ≥97%) and when the most abundant strain represented <50% of the population. Viral community composition assessments based on read recruitment were generally accurate when the following thresholds for detection were applied: (i) ≥10 kb contig lengths to define populations, (ii) coverage defined from reads mapping at ≥90% identity, and (iii) ≥75% of contig length with ≥1 × coverage. Finally, although data are limited to the most abundant viruses in a community, alpha and beta diversity patterns were robustly estimated (±10%) when comparing samples of similar sequencing depth, but more divergent (up to 80%) when sequencing depth was uneven across the dataset. In the latter cases, the use of normalization methods specifically developed for metagenomes provided the best estimates. ConclusionsThese simulations provide benchmarks for selecting analysis cut-offs and establish that an optimized sample-to-ecological-inference viromics pipeline is robust for making ecological inferences from natural viral communities. Continued development to better accessing RNA, rare, and/or diverse viral populations and improved reference viral genome availability will alleviate many of viromics remaining limitations.« less

The relationship between entomological indicators of Aedes aegypti abundance and dengue virus infection

PubMed Central

Stoddard, Steven T.; Barker, Christopher M.; Van Rie, Annelies; Messer, William B.; Meshnick, Steven R.; Morrison, Amy C.; Scott, Thomas W.

2017-01-01

Routine entomological monitoring data are used to quantify the abundance of Ae. aegypti. The public health utility of these indicators is based on the assumption that greater mosquito abundance increases the risk of human DENV transmission, and therefore reducing exposure to the vector decreases incidence of infection. Entomological survey data from two longitudinal cohort studies in Iquitos, Peru, linked with 8,153 paired serological samples taken approximately six months apart were analyzed. Indicators of Ae. aegypti density were calculated from cross-sectional and longitudinal entomological data collected over a 12-month period for larval, pupal and adult Ae. aegypti. Log binomial models were used to estimate risk ratios (RR) to measure the association between Ae. aegypti abundance and the six-month risk of DENV seroconversion. RRs estimated using cross-sectional entomological data were compared to RRs estimated using longitudinal data. Higher cross-sectional Ae. aegypti densities were not associated with an increased risk of DENV seroconversion. Use of longitudinal entomological data resulted in RRs ranging from 1.01 (95% CI: 1.01, 1.02) to 1.30 (95% CI: 1.17, 1.46) for adult stage density estimates and RRs ranging from 1.21 (95% CI: 1.07, 1.37) to 1.75 (95% CI: 1.23, 2.5) for categorical immature indices. Ae. aegypti densities calculated from longitudinal entomological data were associated with DENV seroconversion, whereas those measured cross-sectionally were not. Ae. aegypti indicators calculated from cross-sectional surveillance, as is common practice, have limited public health utility in detecting areas or populations at high risk of DENV infection. PMID:28333938

Study of biological communities subject to imperfect detection: Bias and precision of community N-mixture abundance models in small-sample situations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yamaura, Yuichi; Kery, Marc; Royle, Andy

2016-01-01

Community N-mixture abundance models for replicated counts provide a powerful and novel framework for drawing inferences related to species abundance within communities subject to imperfect detection. To assess the performance of these models, and to compare them to related community occupancy models in situations with marginal information, we used simulation to examine the effects of mean abundance (λ¯: 0.1, 0.5, 1, 5), detection probability (p¯: 0.1, 0.2, 0.5), and number of sampling sites (n site : 10, 20, 40) and visits (n visit : 2, 3, 4) on the bias and precision of species-level parameters (mean abundance and covariate effect) and a community-level parameter (species richness). Bias and imprecision of estimates decreased when any of the four variables (λ¯, p¯, n site , n visit ) increased. Detection probability p¯ was most important for the estimates of mean abundance, while λ¯ was most influential for covariate effect and species richness estimates. For all parameters, increasing n site was more beneficial than increasing n visit . Minimal conditions for obtaining adequate performance of community abundance models were n site  ≥ 20, p¯ ≥ 0.2, and λ¯ ≥ 0.5. At lower abundance, the performance of community abundance and community occupancy models as species richness estimators were comparable. We then used additive partitioning analysis to reveal that raw species counts can overestimate β diversity both of species richness and the Shannon index, while community abundance models yielded better estimates. Community N-mixture abundance models thus have great potential for use with community ecology or conservation applications provided that replicated counts are available.

Unsupervised Unmixing of Hyperspectral Images Accounting for Endmember Variability.

PubMed

Halimi, Abderrahim; Dobigeon, Nicolas; Tourneret, Jean-Yves

2015-12-01

This paper presents an unsupervised Bayesian algorithm for hyperspectral image unmixing, accounting for endmember variability. The pixels are modeled by a linear combination of endmembers weighted by their corresponding abundances. However, the endmembers are assumed random to consider their variability in the image. An additive noise is also considered in the proposed model, generalizing the normal compositional model. The proposed algorithm exploits the whole image to benefit from both spectral and spatial information. It estimates both the mean and the covariance matrix of each endmember in the image. This allows the behavior of each material to be analyzed and its variability to be quantified in the scene. A spatial segmentation is also obtained based on the estimated abundances. In order to estimate the parameters associated with the proposed Bayesian model, we propose to use a Hamiltonian Monte Carlo algorithm. The performance of the resulting unmixing strategy is evaluated through simulations conducted on both synthetic and real data.

Stellar population in star formation regions of galaxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gusev, Alexander S.; Shimanovskaya, Elena V.; Shatsky, Nikolai I.; Sakhibov, Firouz; Piskunov, Anatoly E.; Kharchenko, Nina V.

2018-05-01

We developed techniques for searching young unresolved star groupings (clusters, associations, and their complexes) and of estimating their physical parameters. Our study is based on spectroscopic, spectrophotometric, and UBVRI photometric observations of 19 spiral galaxies. In the studied galaxies, we found 1510 objects younger than 10 Myr and present their catalogue. Having combined photometric and spectroscopic data, we derived extinctions, chemical abundances, sizes, ages, and masses of these groupings. We discuss separately the specific cases, when the gas extinction does not agree with the interstellar one. We assume that this is due to spatial offset of Hii clouds with respect to the related stellar population.We developed a method to estimate age of stellar population of the studied complexes using their morphology and the relation with associated H emission region. In result we obtained the estimates of chemical abundances for 80, masses for 63, and ages for 57 young objects observed in seven galaxies.

Marine predator surveys in Glacier Bay National Park and Preserve

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bodkin, James L.; Kloecker, Kimberly A.; Coletti, Heather A.; Esslinger, George G.; Monson, Daniel H.; Ballachey, Brenda E.

2002-01-01

Since 1999, vessel based surveys to estimate species composition, distribution and relative abundance of marine birds and mammals have been conducted along coastal and pelagic (offshore) transects in Glacier Bay, Alaska. Surveys have been conducted during winter (November-March) and summer (June). This annual report presents the results of those surveys conducted in March and June of 2001. Following completion of surveys in 2002 we will provide a final report of the results of all surveys conducted between 1999 and 2002.Glacier Bay supports diverse and abundant assemblages of marine birds and mammals. In 2001 we identified 58 species of bird, 7 species of marine mammal, and 6 species of terrestrial mammal on transects sampled during winter and summer. Of course all species are not equally abundant. Among all taxa, in both seasons, sea ducks were the numerically dominant group. In their roles as consumers and because of their generally large size, marine mammals are also likely important in the consumption of energy produced in the Glacier Bay ecosystem. Most common and abundant marine birds and mammals can be placed in either a fish based (e.g. alcids and pinnipeds), or a benthic invertebrate (e.g. sea ducks and sea otters) based food web.Distinct differences in the species composition and abundance of marine birds were observed between winter and summer surveys. Winter marine bird assemblages were dominated numerically (> 11,000; 65% of all birds) by a relatively few species of sea ducks (scoters, goldeneye, Bufflehead, Harlequin and Long-tailed ducks). The sea ducks were distributed almost exclusively along near shore habitats. The prevalence of sea ducks during the March surveys indicates the importance of Glacier Bay as a wintering area for this poorly understood group of animals that occupy a high trophic position in a principally benthic invertebrate (mussel and clam) food web. Marine mammal assemblages were generally consistent between seasons, although Humpback and Killer whales were not observed in winter 2001.Summer marine bird assemblages remained numerically dominated by sea ducks, but species composition shifted between the goldeneye whose density was 44/m2 in winter to < 0.2/m2 in summer, to scoters, whose density was 29/m2 in winter to > 60/m2 in summer. Large increases in Black-legged kittiwake, murrelet (Marbled and Kittlitz’s) and Common merganser densities were detected during summer surveys. Seasonal differences in abundance of species likely reflected differences in life history attributes (e.g. reproductive biology, foraging ecology) among species.Because of differences observed in species composition between the winter and summer, it is apparent that a single annual survey cannot accurately describe the populations of marine birds and mammals that occur in Glacier Bay. Preliminary analysis further suggests that interpretations of data resulting from this type of survey may depend to a large extent on the individual species. Because species exhibit differences in behavior, morphology, coloration, and distribution, accuracy and precision of abundance estimates likely vary among species. Confidence in survey results should be evaluated in consideration of life history and detection probabilities at the species level. However, survey results likely provide reasonable estimates of species composition and relative abundance, as well as accurate abundance estimates for those species whose detection closely approximates one.

Statistical inference from multiple iTRAQ experiments without using common reference standards.

PubMed

Herbrich, Shelley M; Cole, Robert N; West, Keith P; Schulze, Kerry; Yager, James D; Groopman, John D; Christian, Parul; Wu, Lee; O'Meally, Robert N; May, Damon H; McIntosh, Martin W; Ruczinski, Ingo

2013-02-01

Isobaric tags for relative and absolute quantitation (iTRAQ) is a prominent mass spectrometry technology for protein identification and quantification that is capable of analyzing multiple samples in a single experiment. Frequently, iTRAQ experiments are carried out using an aliquot from a pool of all samples, or "masterpool", in one of the channels as a reference sample standard to estimate protein relative abundances in the biological samples and to combine abundance estimates from multiple experiments. In this manuscript, we show that using a masterpool is counterproductive. We obtain more precise estimates of protein relative abundance by using the available biological data instead of the masterpool and do not need to occupy a channel that could otherwise be used for another biological sample. In addition, we introduce a simple statistical method to associate proteomic data from multiple iTRAQ experiments with a numeric response and show that this approach is more powerful than the conventionally employed masterpool-based approach. We illustrate our methods using data from four replicate iTRAQ experiments on aliquots of the same pool of plasma samples and from a 406-sample project designed to identify plasma proteins that covary with nutrient concentrations in chronically undernourished children from South Asia.

A study of ethane on Saturn in the 3 micron region

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bjoraker, G. L.; Larson, H. P.; Fink, U.; Smith, H. A.

1981-01-01

C2H6 has been detected in absorption on Saturn from 3-micron airborne spectra. Based on comparisons with laboratory spectra of C2H6, the ethane abundance has been estimated at 7.5 plus or minus 3.5 cm-amagat, equivalent to a column abundance of 3.0 plus or minus 1.4 cm-amagat. The results support expectations that CH4 photolysis is a major disequilibrating mechanism in the upper atmosphere of the outer planets and Titan.

Using Genotype Abundance to Improve Phylogenetic Inference

PubMed Central

Mesin, Luka; Victora, Gabriel D; Minin, Vladimir N; Matsen, Frederick A

2018-01-01

Abstract Modern biological techniques enable very dense genetic sampling of unfolding evolutionary histories, and thus frequently sample some genotypes multiple times. This motivates strategies to incorporate genotype abundance information in phylogenetic inference. In this article, we synthesize a stochastic process model with standard sequence-based phylogenetic optimality, and show that tree estimation is substantially improved by doing so. Our method is validated with extensive simulations and an experimental single-cell lineage tracing study of germinal center B cell receptor affinity maturation. PMID:29474671

Ultra-heavy cosmic rays: Theoretical implications of recent observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Blake, J. B.; Hainebach, K. L.; Schramm, D. N.; Anglin, J. D.

1977-01-01

Extreme ultraheavy cosmic ray observations (Z greater or equal 70) are compared with r-process models. A detailed cosmic ray propagation calculation is used to transform the calculated source distributions to those observed at the earth. The r-process production abundances are calculated using different mass formulae and beta-rate formulae; an empirical estimate based on the observed solar system abundances is used also. There is the continued strong indication of an r-process dominance in the extreme ultra-heavy cosmic rays. However it is shown that the observed high actinide/Pt ratio in the cosmic rays cannot be fit with the same r-process calculation which also fits the solar system material. This result suggests that the cosmic rays probably undergo some preferential acceleration in addition to the apparent general enrichment in heavy (r-process) material. As estimate also is made of the expected relative abundance of superheavy elements in the cosmic rays if the anomalous heavy xenon in carbonaceous chondrites is due to a fissioning superheavy element.

Fluorine Abundances in AGB Carbon Stars: New Results?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abia, C.; de Laverny, P.; Recio-Blanco, A.; Domínguez, I.; Cristallo, S.; Straniero, O.

2009-09-01

A recent reanalysis of the fluorine abundance in three Galactic Asymptotic Giant Branch (AGB) carbon stars (TX Psc, AQ Sgr and R Scl) by Abia et al. (2009) results in estimates of fluorine abundances systematically lower by ~0.8 dex on average, with respect to the sole previous estimates by Jorissen, Smith & Lambert (1992). The new F abundances are in better agreement with the predictions of full-network stellar models of low-mass (<3 Msolar) AGB stars.

Modelling community dynamics based on species-level abundance models from detection/nondetection data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yamaura, Yuichi; Royle, J. Andrew; Kuboi, Kouji; Tada, Tsuneo; Ikeno, Susumu; Makino, Shun'ichi

2011-01-01

1. In large-scale field surveys, a binary recording of each species' detection or nondetection has been increasingly adopted for its simplicity and low cost. Because of the importance of abundance in many studies, it is desirable to obtain inferences about abundance at species-, functional group-, and community-levels from such binary data. 2. We developed a novel hierarchical multi-species abundance model based on species-level detection/nondetection data. The model accounts for the existence of undetected species, and variability in abundance and detectability among species. Species-level detection/nondetection is linked to species- level abundance via a detection model that accommodates the expectation that probability of detection (at least one individuals is detected) increases with local abundance of the species. We applied this model to a 9-year dataset composed of the detection/nondetection of forest birds, at a single post-fire site (from 7 to 15 years after fire) in a montane area of central Japan. The model allocated undetected species into one of the predefined functional groups by assuming a prior distribution on individual group membership. 3. The results suggest that 15–20 species were missed in each year, and that species richness of communities and functional groups did not change with post-fire forest succession. Overall abundance of birds and abundance of functional groups tended to increase over time, although only in the winter, while decreases in detectabilities were observed in several species. 4. Synthesis and applications. Understanding and prediction of large-scale biodiversity dynamics partly hinge on how we can use data effectively. Our hierarchical model for detection/nondetection data estimates abundance in space/time at species-, functional group-, and community-levels while accounting for undetected individuals and species. It also permits comparison of multiple communities by many types of abundance-based diversity and similarity measures under imperfect detection.

Dynamic N -occupancy models: estimating demographic rates and local abundance from detection-nondetection data

Treesearch

Sam Rossman; Charles B. Yackulic; Sarah P. Saunders; Janice Reid; Ray Davis; Elise F. Zipkin

2016-01-01

Occupancy modeling is a widely used analytical technique for assessing species distributions and range dynamics. However, occupancy analyses frequently ignore variation in abundance of occupied sites, even though site abundances affect many of the parameters being estimated (e.g., extinction, colonization, detection probability). We introduce a new model (“dynamic

Dispersion and sampling of adult Dermacentor andersoni in rangeland in Western North America.

PubMed

Rochon, K; Scoles, G A; Lysyk, T J

2012-03-01

A fixed precision sampling plan was developed for off-host populations of adult Rocky Mountain wood tick, Dermacentor andersoni (Stiles) based on data collected by dragging at 13 locations in Alberta, Canada; Washington; and Oregon. In total, 222 site-date combinations were sampled. Each site-date combination was considered a sample, and each sample ranged in size from 86 to 250 10 m2 quadrats. Analysis of simulated quadrats ranging in size from 10 to 50 m2 indicated that the most precise sample unit was the 10 m2 quadrat. Samples taken when abundance < 0.04 ticks per 10 m2 were more likely to not depart significantly from statistical randomness than samples taken when abundance was greater. Data were grouped into ten abundance classes and assessed for fit to the Poisson and negative binomial distributions. The Poisson distribution fit only data in abundance classes < 0.02 ticks per 10 m2, while the negative binomial distribution fit data from all abundance classes. A negative binomial distribution with common k = 0.3742 fit data in eight of the 10 abundance classes. Both the Taylor and Iwao mean-variance relationships were fit and used to predict sample sizes for a fixed level of precision. Sample sizes predicted using the Taylor model tended to underestimate actual sample sizes, while sample sizes estimated using the Iwao model tended to overestimate actual sample sizes. Using a negative binomial with common k provided estimates of required sample sizes closest to empirically calculated sample sizes.

LITHIUM IN THE UPPER CENTAURUS LUPUS AND LOWER CENTAURUS CRUX SUBGROUPS OF SCORPIUS-CENTAURUS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bubar, Eric J.; Schaeuble, Marc; King, Jeremy R.

2011-12-15

We utilize spectroscopically derived model atmosphere parameters and the Li I {lambda}6104 subordinate line and the {lambda}6708 doublet to derive lithium abundances for 12 members of the Upper Centaurus Lupus and Lower Centaurus Crux subgroups of the Scorpius-Centaurus OB Association. The results indicate any intrinsic Li scatter in our 0.9-1.4 M{sub Sun} stars is limited to {approx}0.15 dex, consistent with the lack of dispersion in {>=}1.0 M{sub Sun} stars in the 100 Myr Pleiades and 30-50 Myr IC 2391 and 2602 clusters. Both ab initio uncertainty estimates and the derived abundances themselves indicate that the {lambda}6104 line yields abundances withmore » equivalent or less scatter than is found from the {lambda}6708 doublet as a result of lower uncertainties for the subordinate feature, a result of low sensitivity to broadening in the subordinate feature. Because non-local thermodynamic equilibrium (NLTE) corrections are less susceptible to changes in surface gravity and/or metallicity for the 6104 A line, the subordinate Li feature is preferred for deriving lithium abundances in young Li-rich stellar association stars with T{sub eff} {>=} 5200 K. At these temperatures, we find no difference between the Li abundances derived from the two Li I lines. For cooler stars, having temperatures at which main-sequence dwarfs show abundance patterns indicating overexcitation and overionization, the {lambda}6104-based Li abundances are {approx}0.4 dex lower than those derived from the {lambda}6708 doublet. The trends of the abundances from each feature with T{sub eff} suggest that this difference is due to (near)UV photoionization, which in NLTE preferentially ionizes Li atoms in the subordinate 2p state relative to the 2s resonance line state due to opacity effects. Consequently, this overionization of Li in the 2p state, apparently not adequately accounted for in NLTE corrections, weakens the {lambda}6104 feature in cooler stars. Accordingly, the {lambda}6708-based abundances may give more reliable estimates of the mean Li abundance in cool young stars. Our mean Li abundance, log N(Li) =3.50 {+-} 0.07 is {approx}0.2 dex larger than the meteoritic value. While stellar models suggest that Li depletion of at least 0.4 dex, and possibly much larger, should have occurred in our lowest mass star(s), our Li abundances show no decline with decreasing mass indicative of such depletion.« less

Detecting declines in the abundance of a bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) population: Understanding the accuracy, precision, and costs of our efforts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Al-Chokhachy, R.; Budy, P.; Conner, M.

2009-01-01

Using empirical field data for bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus), we evaluated the trade-off between power and sampling effort-cost using Monte Carlo simulations of commonly collected mark-recapture-resight and count data, and we estimated the power to detect changes in abundance across different time intervals. We also evaluated the effects of monitoring different components of a population and stratification methods on the precision of each method. Our results illustrate substantial variability in the relative precision, cost, and information gained from each approach. While grouping estimates by age or stage class substantially increased the precision of estimates, spatial stratification of sampling units resulted in limited increases in precision. Although mark-resight methods allowed for estimates of abundance versus indices of abundance, our results suggest snorkel surveys may be a more affordable monitoring approach across large spatial scales. Detecting a 25% decline in abundance after 5 years was not possible, regardless of technique (power = 0.80), without high sampling effort (48% of study site). Detecting a 25% decline was possible after 15 years, but still required high sampling efforts. Our results suggest detecting moderate changes in abundance of freshwater salmonids requires considerable resource and temporal commitments and highlight the difficulties of using abundance measures for monitoring bull trout populations.

Trophic Scaling and Occupancy Analysis Reveals a Lion Population Limited by Top-Down Anthropogenic Pressure in the Limpopo National Park, Mozambique

PubMed Central

Everatt, Kristoffer T.; Andresen, Leah; Somers, Michael J.

2014-01-01

The African lion (Panthera Leo) has suffered drastic population and range declines over the last few decades and is listed by the IUCN as vulnerable to extinction. Conservation management requires reliable population estimates, however these data are lacking for many of the continent's remaining populations. It is possible to estimate lion abundance using a trophic scaling approach. However, such inferences assume that a predator population is subject only to bottom-up regulation, and are thus likely to produce biased estimates in systems experiencing top-down anthropogenic pressures. Here we provide baseline data on the status of lions in a developing National Park in Mozambique that is impacted by humans and livestock. We compare a direct density estimate with an estimate derived from trophic scaling. We then use replicated detection/non-detection surveys to estimate the proportion of area occupied by lions, and hierarchical ranking of covariates to provide inferences on the relative contribution of prey resources and anthropogenic factors influencing lion occurrence. The direct density estimate was less than 1/3 of the estimate derived from prey resources (0.99 lions/100 km2 vs. 3.05 lions/100 km2). The proportion of area occupied by lions was Ψ = 0.439 (SE = 0.121), or approximately 44% of a 2 400 km2 sample of potential habitat. Although lions were strongly predicted by a greater probability of encountering prey resources, the greatest contributing factor to lion occurrence was a strong negative association with settlements. Finally, our empirical abundance estimate is approximately 1/3 of a published abundance estimate derived from opinion surveys. Altogether, our results describe a lion population held below resource-based carrying capacity by anthropogenic factors and highlight the limitations of trophic scaling and opinion surveys for estimating predator populations exposed to anthropogenic pressures. Our study provides the first empirical quantification of a population that future change can be measured against. PMID:24914934

Trophic scaling and occupancy analysis reveals a lion population limited by top-down anthropogenic pressure in the Limpopo National Park, Mozambique.

PubMed

Everatt, Kristoffer T; Andresen, Leah; Somers, Michael J

2014-01-01

The African lion (Panthera Leo) has suffered drastic population and range declines over the last few decades and is listed by the IUCN as vulnerable to extinction. Conservation management requires reliable population estimates, however these data are lacking for many of the continent's remaining populations. It is possible to estimate lion abundance using a trophic scaling approach. However, such inferences assume that a predator population is subject only to bottom-up regulation, and are thus likely to produce biased estimates in systems experiencing top-down anthropogenic pressures. Here we provide baseline data on the status of lions in a developing National Park in Mozambique that is impacted by humans and livestock. We compare a direct density estimate with an estimate derived from trophic scaling. We then use replicated detection/non-detection surveys to estimate the proportion of area occupied by lions, and hierarchical ranking of covariates to provide inferences on the relative contribution of prey resources and anthropogenic factors influencing lion occurrence. The direct density estimate was less than 1/3 of the estimate derived from prey resources (0.99 lions/100 km² vs. 3.05 lions/100 km²). The proportion of area occupied by lions was Ψ = 0.439 (SE = 0.121), or approximately 44% of a 2,400 km2 sample of potential habitat. Although lions were strongly predicted by a greater probability of encountering prey resources, the greatest contributing factor to lion occurrence was a strong negative association with settlements. Finally, our empirical abundance estimate is approximately 1/3 of a published abundance estimate derived from opinion surveys. Altogether, our results describe a lion population held below resource-based carrying capacity by anthropogenic factors and highlight the limitations of trophic scaling and opinion surveys for estimating predator populations exposed to anthropogenic pressures. Our study provides the first empirical quantification of a population that future change can be measured against.

N-mixture models for estimating population size from spatially replicated counts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Royle, J. Andrew

2004-01-01

Spatial replication is a common theme in count surveys of animals. Such surveys often generate sparse count data from which it is difficult to estimate population size while formally accounting for detection probability. In this article, i describe a class of models (n-mixture models) which allow for estimation of population size from such data. The key idea is to view site-specific population sizes, n, as independent random variables distributed according to some mixing distribution (e.g., Poisson). Prior parameters are estimated from the marginal likelihood of the data, having integrated over the prior distribution for n. Carroll and lombard (1985, journal of american statistical association 80, 423-426) proposed a class of estimators based on mixing over a prior distribution for detection probability. Their estimator can be applied in limited settings, but is sensitive to prior parameter values that are fixed a priori. Spatial replication provides additional information regarding the parameters of the prior distribution on n that is exploited by the n-mixture models and which leads to reasonable estimates of abundance from sparse data. A simulation study demonstrates superior operating characteristics (bias, confidence interval coverage) of the n-mixture estimator compared to the caroll and lombard estimator. Both estimators are applied to point count data on six species of birds illustrating the sensitivity to choice of prior on p and substantially different estimates of abundance as a consequence.

Hydroacoustic estimates of abundance and spatial distribution of pelagic prey fishes in western Lake Superior

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mason, Doran M.; Johnson, Timothy B.; Harvey, Chris J.; Kitchell, James F.; Schram, Stephen T.; Bronte, Charles R.; Hoff, Michael H.; Lozano, Stephen J.; Trebitz, Anett S.; Schreiner, Donald R.; Lamon, E. Conrad; Hrabik, Thomas R.

2005-01-01

Lake herring (Coregonus artedi) and rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax) are a valuable prey resource for the recovering lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) in Lake Superior. However, prey biomass may be insufficient to support the current predator demand. In August 1997, we assessed the abundance and spatial distribution of pelagic coregonines and rainbow smelt in western Lake Superior by combining a 120 kHz split beam acoustics system with midwater trawls. Coregonines comprised the majority of the midwater trawl catches and the length distributions for trawl caught fish coincided with estimated sizes of acoustic targets. Overall mean pelagic prey fish biomass was 15.56 kg ha−1 with the greatest fish biomass occurring in the Apostle Islands region (27.98 kg ha−1), followed by the Duluth Minnesota region (20.22 kg ha−1), and with the lowest biomass occurring in the open waters of western Lake Superior (9.46 kg ha−1). Biomass estimates from hydroacoustics were typically 2–134 times greater than estimates derived from spring bottom trawl surveys. Prey fish biomass for Lake Superior is about order of magnitude less than acoustic estimates for Lakes Michigan and Ontario. Discrepancies observed between bioenergetics-based estimates of predator consumption of coregonines and earlier coregonine biomass estimates may be accounted for by our hydroacoustic estimates.

Characterization of instream hydraulic and riparian habitat conditions and stream temperatures of the Upper White River Basin, Washington, using multispectral imaging systems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Black, Robert W.; Haggland, Alan; Crosby, Greg

2003-01-01

Instream hydraulic and riparian habitat conditions and stream temperatures were characterized for selected stream segments in the Upper White River Basin, Washington. An aerial multispectral imaging system used digital cameras to photograph the stream segments across multiple wavelengths to characterize fish habitat and temperature conditions. All imageries were georeferenced. Fish habitat features were photographed at a resolution of 0.5 meter and temperature imageries were photographed at a 1.0-meter resolution. The digital multispectral imageries were classified using commercially available software. Aerial photographs were taken on September 21, 1999. Field habitat data were collected from August 23 to October 12, 1999, to evaluate the measurement accuracy and effectiveness of the multispectral imaging in determining the extent of the instream habitat variables. Fish habitat types assessed by this method were the abundance of instream hydraulic features such as pool and riffle habitats, turbulent and non-turbulent habitats, riparian composition, the abundance of large woody debris in the stream and riparian zone, and stream temperatures. Factors such as the abundance of instream woody debris, the location and frequency of pools, and stream temperatures generally are known to have a significant impact on salmon. Instream woody debris creates the habitat complexity necessary to maintain a diverse and healthy salmon population. The abundance of pools is indicative of a stream's ability to support fish and other aquatic organisms. Changes in water temperature can affect aquatic organisms by altering metabolic rates and oxygen requirements, altering their sensitivity to toxic materials and affecting their ability to avoid predators. The specific objectives of this project were to evaluate the use of an aerial multispectral imaging system to accurately identify instream hydraulic features and surface-water temperatures in the Upper White River Basin, to use the multispectral system to help establish baseline instream/riparian habitat conditions in the study area, and to qualitatively assess the imaging system for possible use in other Puget Sound rivers. For the most part, all multispectral imagery-based estimates of total instream riffle and pool area were less than field measurements. The imagery-based estimates for riffle habitat area ranged from 35.5 to 83.3 percent less than field measurements. Pool habitat estimates ranged from 139.3 percent greater than field measurements to 94.0 percent less than field measurements. Multispectral imagery-based estimates of turbulent habitat conditions ranged from 9.3 percent greater than field measurements to 81.6 percent less than field measurements. Multispectral imagery-based estimates of non-turbulent habitat conditions ranged from 27.7 to 74.1 percent less than field measurements. The absolute average percentage of difference between field and imagery-based habitat type areas was less for the turbulent and non-turbulent habitat type categories than for pools and riffles. The estimate of woody debris by multispectral imaging was substantially different than field measurements; percentage of differences ranged from +373.1 to -100 percent. Although the total area of riffles, pools, and turbulent and non-turbulent habitat types measured in the field were all substantially higher than those estimated from the multispectral imagery, the percentage of composition of each habitat type was not substantially different between the imagery-based estimates and field measurements.

Estimating abundance in the presence of species uncertainty

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chambert, Thierry A.; Hossack, Blake R.; Fishback, LeeAnn; Davenport, Jon M.

2016-01-01

1.N-mixture models have become a popular method for estimating abundance of free-ranging animals that are not marked or identified individually. These models have been used on count data for single species that can be identified with certainty. However, co-occurring species often look similar during one or more life stages, making it difficult to assign species for all recorded captures. This uncertainty creates problems for estimating species-specific abundance and it can often limit life stages to which we can make inference. 2.We present a new extension of N-mixture models that accounts for species uncertainty. In addition to estimating site-specific abundances and detection probabilities, this model allows estimating probability of correct assignment of species identity. We implement this hierarchical model in a Bayesian framework and provide all code for running the model in BUGS-language programs. 3.We present an application of the model on count data from two sympatric freshwater fishes, the brook stickleback (Culaea inconstans) and the ninespine stickleback (Pungitius pungitius), ad illustrate implementation of covariate effects (habitat characteristics). In addition, we used a simulation study to validate the model and illustrate potential sample size issues. We also compared, for both real and simulated data, estimates provided by our model to those obtained by a simple N-mixture model when captures of unknown species identification were discarded. In the latter case, abundance estimates appeared highly biased and very imprecise, while our new model provided unbiased estimates with higher precision. 4.This extension of the N-mixture model should be useful for a wide variety of studies and taxa, as species uncertainty is a common issue. It should notably help improve investigation of abundance and vital rate characteristics of organisms’ early life stages, which are sometimes more difficult to identify than adults.

Visualization and dissemination of multidimensional proteomics data comparing protein abundance during Caenorhabditis elegans development.

PubMed

Riffle, Michael; Merrihew, Gennifer E; Jaschob, Daniel; Sharma, Vagisha; Davis, Trisha N; Noble, William S; MacCoss, Michael J

2015-11-01

Regulation of protein abundance is a critical aspect of cellular function, organism development, and aging. Alternative splicing may give rise to multiple possible proteoforms of gene products where the abundance of each proteoform is independently regulated. Understanding how the abundances of these distinct gene products change is essential to understanding the underlying mechanisms of many biological processes. Bottom-up proteomics mass spectrometry techniques may be used to estimate protein abundance indirectly by sequencing and quantifying peptides that are later mapped to proteins based on sequence. However, quantifying the abundance of distinct gene products is routinely confounded by peptides that map to multiple possible proteoforms. In this work, we describe a technique that may be used to help mitigate the effects of confounding ambiguous peptides and multiple proteoforms when quantifying proteins. We have applied this technique to visualize the distribution of distinct gene products for the whole proteome across 11 developmental stages of the model organism Caenorhabditis elegans. The result is a large multidimensional dataset for which web-based tools were developed for visualizing how translated gene products change during development and identifying possible proteoforms. The underlying instrument raw files and tandem mass spectra may also be downloaded. The data resource is freely available on the web at http://www.yeastrc.org/wormpes/ . Graphical Abstract ᅟ.

Visualization and Dissemination of Multidimensional Proteomics Data Comparing Protein Abundance During Caenorhabditis elegans Development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riffle, Michael; Merrihew, Gennifer E.; Jaschob, Daniel; Sharma, Vagisha; Davis, Trisha N.; Noble, William S.; MacCoss, Michael J.

2015-11-01

Regulation of protein abundance is a critical aspect of cellular function, organism development, and aging. Alternative splicing may give rise to multiple possible proteoforms of gene products where the abundance of each proteoform is independently regulated. Understanding how the abundances of these distinct gene products change is essential to understanding the underlying mechanisms of many biological processes. Bottom-up proteomics mass spectrometry techniques may be used to estimate protein abundance indirectly by sequencing and quantifying peptides that are later mapped to proteins based on sequence. However, quantifying the abundance of distinct gene products is routinely confounded by peptides that map to multiple possible proteoforms. In this work, we describe a technique that may be used to help mitigate the effects of confounding ambiguous peptides and multiple proteoforms when quantifying proteins. We have applied this technique to visualize the distribution of distinct gene products for the whole proteome across 11 developmental stages of the model organism Caenorhabditis elegans. The result is a large multidimensional dataset for which web-based tools were developed for visualizing how translated gene products change during development and identifying possible proteoforms. The underlying instrument raw files and tandem mass spectra may also be downloaded. The data resource is freely available on the web at http://www.yeastrc.org/wormpes/.

Physical properties (particle size, rock abundance) from thermal infrared remote observations: Implications for Mars landing sites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Christensen, P. R.; Edgett, Kenneth S.

1994-01-01

Critical to the assessment of potential sites for the 1997 Pathfinder landing is estimation of general physical properties of the martian surface. Surface properties have been studied using a variety of spacecraft and earth-based remote sensing observations, plus in situ studies at the Viking lander sites. Because of their value in identifying landing hazards and defining scientific objectives, we focus this discussion on thermal inertia and rock abundance derived from middle-infrared (6 to 30 microns) observations. Used in conjunction with other datasets, particularly albedo and Viking orbiter images, thermal inertia and rock abundance provide clues about the properties of potential Mars landing sites.

A generalized mixed effects model of abundance for mark-resight data when sampling is without replacement

USGS Publications Warehouse

McClintock, B.T.; White, Gary C.; Burnham, K.P.; Pryde, M.A.; Thomson, David L.; Cooch, Evan G.; Conroy, Michael J.

2009-01-01

In recent years, the mark-resight method for estimating abundance when the number of marked individuals is known has become increasingly popular. By using field-readable bands that may be resighted from a distance, these techniques can be applied to many species, and are particularly useful for relatively small, closed populations. However, due to the different assumptions and general rigidity of the available estimators, researchers must often commit to a particular model without rigorous quantitative justification for model selection based on the data. Here we introduce a nonlinear logit-normal mixed effects model addressing this need for a more generalized framework. Similar to models available for mark-recapture studies, the estimator allows a wide variety of sampling conditions to be parameterized efficiently under a robust sampling design. Resighting rates may be modeled simply or with more complexity by including fixed temporal and random individual heterogeneity effects. Using information theory, the model(s) best supported by the data may be selected from the candidate models proposed. Under this generalized framework, we hope the uncertainty associated with mark-resight model selection will be reduced substantially. We compare our model to other mark-resight abundance estimators when applied to mainland New Zealand robin (Petroica australis) data recently collected in Eglinton Valley, Fiordland National Park and summarize its performance in simulation experiments.

Evaluating noninvasive genetic sampling techniques to estimate large carnivore abundance.

PubMed

Mumma, Matthew A; Zieminski, Chris; Fuller, Todd K; Mahoney, Shane P; Waits, Lisette P

2015-09-01

Monitoring large carnivores is difficult because of intrinsically low densities and can be dangerous if physical capture is required. Noninvasive genetic sampling (NGS) is a safe and cost-effective alternative to physical capture. We evaluated the utility of two NGS methods (scat detection dogs and hair sampling) to obtain genetic samples for abundance estimation of coyotes, black bears and Canada lynx in three areas of Newfoundland, Canada. We calculated abundance estimates using program capwire, compared sampling costs, and the cost/sample for each method relative to species and study site, and performed simulations to determine the sampling intensity necessary to achieve abundance estimates with coefficients of variation (CV) of <10%. Scat sampling was effective for both coyotes and bears and hair snags effectively sampled bears in two of three study sites. Rub pads were ineffective in sampling coyotes and lynx. The precision of abundance estimates was dependent upon the number of captures/individual. Our simulations suggested that ~3.4 captures/individual will result in a < 10% CV for abundance estimates when populations are small (23-39), but fewer captures/individual may be sufficient for larger populations. We found scat sampling was more cost-effective for sampling multiple species, but suggest that hair sampling may be less expensive at study sites with limited road access for bears. Given the dependence of sampling scheme on species and study site, the optimal sampling scheme is likely to be study-specific warranting pilot studies in most circumstances. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The First Estimates of Marbled Cat Pardofelis marmorata Population Density from Bornean Primary and Selectively Logged Forest.

PubMed

Hearn, Andrew J; Ross, Joanna; Bernard, Henry; Bakar, Soffian Abu; Hunter, Luke T B; Macdonald, David W

2016-01-01

The marbled cat Pardofelis marmorata is a poorly known wild cat that has a broad distribution across much of the Indomalayan ecorealm. This felid is thought to exist at low population densities throughout its range, yet no estimates of its abundance exist, hampering assessment of its conservation status. To investigate the distribution and abundance of marbled cats we conducted intensive, felid-focused camera trap surveys of eight forest areas and two oil palm plantations in Sabah, Malaysian Borneo. Study sites were broadly representative of the range of habitat types and the gradient of anthropogenic disturbance and fragmentation present in contemporary Sabah. We recorded marbled cats from all forest study areas apart from a small, relatively isolated forest patch, although photographic detection frequency varied greatly between areas. No marbled cats were recorded within the plantations, but a single individual was recorded walking along the forest/plantation boundary. We collected sufficient numbers of marbled cat photographic captures at three study areas to permit density estimation based on spatially explicit capture-recapture analyses. Estimates of population density from the primary, lowland Danum Valley Conservation Area and primary upland, Tawau Hills Park, were 19.57 (SD: 8.36) and 7.10 (SD: 1.90) individuals per 100 km2, respectively, and the selectively logged, lowland Tabin Wildlife Reserve yielded an estimated density of 10.45 (SD: 3.38) individuals per 100 km2. The low detection frequencies recorded in our other survey sites and from published studies elsewhere in its range, and the absence of previous density estimates for this felid suggest that our density estimates may be from the higher end of their abundance spectrum. We provide recommendations for future marbled cat survey approaches.

The First Estimates of Marbled Cat Pardofelis marmorata Population Density from Bornean Primary and Selectively Logged Forest

PubMed Central

Hearn, Andrew J.; Ross, Joanna; Bernard, Henry; Bakar, Soffian Abu; Hunter, Luke T. B.; Macdonald, David W.

2016-01-01

The marbled cat Pardofelis marmorata is a poorly known wild cat that has a broad distribution across much of the Indomalayan ecorealm. This felid is thought to exist at low population densities throughout its range, yet no estimates of its abundance exist, hampering assessment of its conservation status. To investigate the distribution and abundance of marbled cats we conducted intensive, felid-focused camera trap surveys of eight forest areas and two oil palm plantations in Sabah, Malaysian Borneo. Study sites were broadly representative of the range of habitat types and the gradient of anthropogenic disturbance and fragmentation present in contemporary Sabah. We recorded marbled cats from all forest study areas apart from a small, relatively isolated forest patch, although photographic detection frequency varied greatly between areas. No marbled cats were recorded within the plantations, but a single individual was recorded walking along the forest/plantation boundary. We collected sufficient numbers of marbled cat photographic captures at three study areas to permit density estimation based on spatially explicit capture-recapture analyses. Estimates of population density from the primary, lowland Danum Valley Conservation Area and primary upland, Tawau Hills Park, were 19.57 (SD: 8.36) and 7.10 (SD: 1.90) individuals per 100 km2, respectively, and the selectively logged, lowland Tabin Wildlife Reserve yielded an estimated density of 10.45 (SD: 3.38) individuals per 100 km2. The low detection frequencies recorded in our other survey sites and from published studies elsewhere in its range, and the absence of previous density estimates for this felid suggest that our density estimates may be from the higher end of their abundance spectrum. We provide recommendations for future marbled cat survey approaches. PMID:27007219

Temporal variability of local abundance, sex ratio and activity in the Sardinian chalk hill blue butterfly

USGS Publications Warehouse

Casula, P.; Nichols, J.D.

2003-01-01

When capturing and marking of individuals is possible, the application of newly developed capture-recapture models can remove several sources of bias in the estimation of population parameters such as local abundance and sex ratio. For example, observation of distorted sex ratios in counts or captures can reflect either different abundances of the sexes or different sex-specific capture probabilities, and capture-recapture models can help distinguish between these two possibilities. Robust design models and a model selection procedure based on information-theoretic methods were applied to study the local population structure of the endemic Sardinian chalk hill blue butterfly, Polyommatus coridon gennargenti. Seasonal variations of abundance, plus daily and weather-related variations of active populations of males and females were investigated. Evidence was found of protandry and male pioneering of the breeding space. Temporary emigration probability, which describes the proportion of the population not exposed to capture (e.g. absent from the study area) during the sampling process, was estimated, differed between sexes, and was related to temperature, a factor known to influence animal activity. The correlation between temporary emigration and average daily temperature suggested interpreting temporary emigration as inactivity of animals. Robust design models were used successfully to provide a detailed description of the population structure and activity in this butterfly and are recommended for studies of local abundance and animal activity in the field.

Area and Carbon Content of Sphagnum Since Last Glacial Maximum

DOE Data Explorer

Gajewski, K. [University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario (Canada); Viau, A. [University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario (Canada); Sawada, M. [University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario (Canada); Atkinson, D. [University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario (Canada); Wilson, S. [University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario (Canada)

2002-01-01

The distribution and abundance of Sphagnum spores in North America and Eurasia are mapped for the past 21ka, as described in Gajewski et al. (2002). In summary, spore data were taken from existing pollen data bases, as were radiocarbon chronologies. The abundance of Sphagnum spores was mapped at 2000-year intervals beginning 21000 years BP (before present). The present-day distribution of abundant Sphagnum spores corresponds closely to areas with peatland development, with maximum Sphagnum abundance between 630 and 1300 mm annual precipitation and between -2° and 60°C mean annual air temperature. Carbon content of peatlands was generated from estimated peatland area, calculated values of peat thickness, and specified values of bulk density (112 × 10³ g m^-3) and fraction of carbon (51.7%).

An abundance of rare functional variants in 202 drug target genes sequenced in 14,002 people

PubMed Central

Nelson, Matthew R.; Wegmann, Daniel; Ehm, Margaret G.; Kessner, Darren; St. Jean, Pamela; Verzilli, Claudio; Shen, Judong; Tang, Zhengzheng; Bacanu, Silviu-Alin; Fraser, Dana; Warren, Liling; Aponte, Jennifer; Zawistowski, Matthew; Liu, Xiao; Zhang, Hao; Zhang, Yong; Li, Jun; Li, Yun; Li, Li; Woollard, Peter; Topp, Simon; Hall, Matthew D.; Nangle, Keith; Wang, Jun; Abecasis, Gonçalo; Cardon, Lon R.; Zöllner, Sebastian; Whittaker, John C.; Chissoe, Stephanie L.; Novembre, John; Mooser, Vincent

2015-01-01

Rare genetic variants contribute to complex disease risk; however, the abundance of rare variants in human populations remains unknown. We explored this spectrum of variation by sequencing 202 genes encoding drug targets in 14,002 individuals. We find rare variants are abundant (one every 17 bases) and geographically localized, such that even with large sample sizes, rare variant catalogs will be largely incomplete. We used the observed patterns of variation to estimate population growth parameters, the proportion of variants in a given frequency class that are putatively deleterious, and mutation rates for each gene. Overall we conclude that, due to rapid population growth and weak purifying selection, human populations harbor an abundance of rare variants, many of which are deleterious and have relevance to understanding disease risk. PMID:22604722

Detailed modelling of the circumstellar molecular line emission of the S-type AGB star W Aquilae

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Danilovich, T.; Bergman, P.; Justtanont, K.; Lombaert, R.; Maercker, M.; Olofsson, H.; Ramstedt, S.; Royer, P.

2014-09-01

Context. S-type AGB stars have a C/O ratio which suggests that they are transition objects between oxygen-rich M-type stars and carbon-rich C-type stars. As such, their circumstellar compositions of gas and dust are thought to be sensitive to their precise C/O ratio, and it is therefore of particular interest to examine their circumstellar properties. Aims: We present new Herschel HIFI and PACS sub-millimetre and far-infrared line observations of several molecular species towards the S-type AGB star W Aql. We use these observations, which probe a wide range of gas temperatures, to constrain the circumstellar properties of W Aql, including mass-loss rate and molecular abundances. Methods: We used radiative transfer codes to model the circumstellar dust and molecular line emission to determine circumstellar properties and molecular abundances. We assumed a spherically symmetric envelope formed by a constant mass-loss rate driven by an accelerating wind. Our model includes fully integrated H2O line cooling as part of the solution of the energy balance. Results: We detect circumstellar molecular lines from CO, H2O, SiO, HCN, and, for the first time in an S-type AGB star, NH3. The radiative transfer calculations result in an estimated mass-loss rate for W Aql of 4.0 × 10-6 M⊙ yr-1 based on the 12CO lines. The estimated 12CO/13CO ratio is 29, which is in line with ratios previously derived for S-type AGB stars. We find an H2O abundance of 1.5 × 10-5, which is intermediate to the abundances expected for M and C stars, and an ortho/para ratio for H2O that is consistent with formation at warm temperatures. We find an HCN abundance of 3 × 10-6, and, although no CN lines are detected using HIFI, we are able to put some constraints on the abundance, 6 × 10-6, and distribution of CN in W Aql's circumstellar envelopeusing ground-based data. We find an SiO abundance of 3 × 10-6, and an NH3 abundance of 1.7 × 10-5, confined to a small envelope. If we include uncertainties in the adopted circumstellar model - in the adopted abundance distributions, etc. - the errors in the abundances are of the order of factors of a few. The data also suggest that, in terms of HCN, S-type and M-type AGB stars are similar, and in terms of H2O, S-type AGB stars are more like C-type than M-type AGB stars. We detect excess blue-shifted emission in several molecular lines, possibly due to an asymmetric outflow. Conclusions: The estimated abundances of circumstellar HCN, SiO and H2O place W Aql in between M- and C-type AGB stars, i.e., the abundances are consistent with an S-type classification. Herschel is an ESA space observatory with science instruments provided by European-led Principal Investigator consortia and with important participation from NASA.

Fishery-independent surface abundance and density estimates of swordfish (Xiphias gladius) from aerial surveys in the Central Mediterranean Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lauriano, Giancarlo; Pierantonio, Nino; Kell, Laurence; Cañadas, Ana; Donovan, Gregory; Panigada, Simone

2017-07-01

Fishery-independent surface density and abundance estimates for the swordfish were obtained through aerial surveys carried out over a large portion of the Central Mediterranean, implementing distance sampling methodologies. Both design- and model-based abundance and density showed an uneven occurrence of the species throughout the study area, with clusters of higher density occurring near converging fronts, strong thermoclines and/or underwater features. The surface abundance was estimated for the Pelagos Sanctuary for Mediterranean Marine Mammals in the summer of 2009 (n=1152; 95%CI=669.0-1981.0; %CV=27.64), the Sea of Sardinia, the Pelagos Sanctuary and the Central Tyrrhenian Sea for the summer of 2010 (n=3401; 95%CI=2067.0-5596.0; %CV=25.51), and for the Southern Tyrrhenian Sea during the winter months of 2010-2011 (n=1228; 95%CI=578-2605; %CV=38.59). The Mediterranean swordfish stock deserves special attention in light of the heavy fishing pressures. Furthermore, the unreliability of fishery-related data has, to date, hampered our ability to effectively inform long-term conservation in the Mediterranean Region. Considering that the European countries have committed to protect the resources and all the marine-related economic and social dynamics upon which they depend, the information presented here constitute useful data towards the international legal requirements under the Marine Strategy Framework Directory, the Common Fisheries Policy, the Habitats and Species Directive and the Directive on Maritime Spatial Planning, among the others.

General constraints on sampling wildlife on FIA plots

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bailey, L.L.; Sauer, J.R.; Nichols, J.D.; Geissler, P.H.; McRoberts, Ronald E.; Reams, Gregory A.; Van Deusen, Paul C.; McWilliams, William H.; Cieszewski, Chris J.

2005-01-01

This paper reviews the constraints to sampling wildlife populations at FIA points. Wildlife sampling programs must have well-defined goals and provide information adequate to meet those goals. Investigators should choose a State variable based on information needs and the spatial sampling scale. We discuss estimation-based methods for three State variables: species richness, abundance, and patch occupancy. All methods incorporate two essential sources of variation: detectability estimation and spatial variation. FIA sampling imposes specific space and time criteria that may need to be adjusted to meet local wildlife objectives.

An integrated data model to estimate spatiotemporal occupancy, abundance, and colonization dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, Perry J.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Womble, Jamie N.; Esslinger, George G.; Bower, Michael R.; Hefley, Trevor J.

2017-01-01

Ecological invasions and colonizations occur dynamically through space and time. Estimating the distribution and abundance of colonizing species is critical for efficient management or conservation. We describe a statistical framework for simultaneously estimating spatiotemporal occupancy and abundance dynamics of a colonizing species. Our method accounts for several issues that are common when modeling spatiotemporal ecological data including multiple levels of detection probability, multiple data sources, and computational limitations that occur when making fine-scale inference over a large spatiotemporal domain. We apply the model to estimate the colonization dynamics of sea otters (Enhydra lutris) in Glacier Bay, in southeastern Alaska.

Quantitative Viral Community DNA Analysis Reveals the Dominance of Single-Stranded DNA Viruses in Offshore Upper Bathyal Sediment from Tohoku, Japan

PubMed Central

Yoshida, Mitsuhiro; Mochizuki, Tomohiro; Urayama, Syun-Ichi; Yoshida-Takashima, Yukari; Nishi, Shinro; Hirai, Miho; Nomaki, Hidetaka; Takaki, Yoshihiro; Nunoura, Takuro; Takai, Ken

2018-01-01

Previous studies on marine environmental virology have primarily focused on double-stranded DNA (dsDNA) viruses; however, it has recently been suggested that single-stranded DNA (ssDNA) viruses are more abundant in marine ecosystems. In this study, we performed a quantitative viral community DNA analysis to estimate the relative abundance and composition of both ssDNA and dsDNA viruses in offshore upper bathyal sediment from Tohoku, Japan (water depth = 500 m). The estimated dsDNA viral abundance ranged from 3 × 106 to 5 × 106 genome copies per cm3 sediment, showing values similar to the range of fluorescence-based direct virus counts. In contrast, the estimated ssDNA viral abundance ranged from 1 × 108 to 3 × 109 genome copies per cm3 sediment, thus providing an estimation that the ssDNA viral populations represent 96.3–99.8% of the benthic total DNA viral assemblages. In the ssDNA viral metagenome, most of the identified viral sequences were associated with ssDNA viral families such as Circoviridae and Microviridae. The principle components analysis of the ssDNA viral sequence components from the sedimentary ssDNA viral metagenomic libraries found that the different depth viral communities at the study site all exhibited similar profiles compared with deep-sea sediment ones at other reference sites. Our results suggested that deep-sea benthic ssDNA viruses have been significantly underestimated by conventional direct virus counts and that their contributions to deep-sea benthic microbial mortality and geochemical cycles should be further addressed by such a new quantitative approach. PMID:29467725

Lunar Silicon Abundance determined by Kaguya Gamma-ray Spectrometer and Chandrayaan-1 Moon Mineralogy Mapper

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Kyeong; Berezhnoy, Alexey; Wöhler, Christian; Grumpe, Arne; Rodriguez, Alexis; Hasebe, Nobuyuki; Van Gasselt, Stephan

2016-07-01

Using Kaguya GRS data, we investigated Si distribution on the Moon, based on study of the 4934 keV Si gamma ray peak caused by interaction between thermal neutrons and lunar Si-28 atoms. A Si peak analysis for a grid of 10 degrees in longitude and latitude was accomplished by the IRAP Aquarius program followed by a correction for altitude and thermal neutron density. A spectral parameter based regression model of the Si distribution was built for latitudes between 60°S and 60°N based on the continuum slopes, band depths, widths and minimum wavelengths of the absorption bands near 1 μμm and 2 μμm. Based on these regression models a nearly global cpm (counts per minute) map of Si with a resolution of 20 pixels per degree was constructed. The construction of a nearly global map of lunar Si abundances has been achieved by a combination of regression-based analysis of KGRS cpm data and M ^{3} spectral reflectance data, it has been calibrated with respect to returned sample-based wt% values. The Si abundances estimated with our method systematically exceed those of the LP GRS Si data set but are consistent with typical Si abundances of lunar basalt samples (in the maria) and feldspathic mineral samples (in the highlands). Our Si map shows that the Si abundance values on the Moon are typically between 17 and 28 wt%. The obtained Si map will provide an important aspect in both understanding the distribution of minerals and the evolution of the lunar surface since its formation.

The Influence of Weather and Lemmings on Spatiotemporal Variation in the Abundance of Multiple Avian Guilds in the Arctic

PubMed Central

Robinson, Barry G.; Franke, Alastair; Derocher, Andrew E.

2014-01-01

Climate change is occurring more rapidly in the Arctic than other places in the world, which is likely to alter the distribution and abundance of migratory birds breeding there. A warming climate can provide benefits to birds by decreasing spring snow cover, but increases in the frequency of summer rainstorms, another product of climate change, may reduce foraging opportunities for insectivorous birds. Cyclic lemming populations in the Arctic also influence bird abundance because Arctic foxes begin consuming bird eggs when lemmings decline. The complex interaction between summer temperature, precipitation, and the lemming cycle hinder our ability to predict how Arctic-breeding birds will respond to climate change. The main objective of this study was to investigate the relationship between annual variation in weather, spring snow cover, lemming abundance and spatiotemporal variation in the abundance of multiple avian guilds in a tundra ecosystem in central Nunavut, Canada: songbirds, shorebirds, gulls, loons, and geese. We spatially stratified our study area based on vegetation productivity, terrain ruggedness, and freshwater abundance, and conducted distance sampling to estimate strata-specific densities of each guild during the summers of 2010–2012. We also monitored temperature, rainfall, spring snow cover, and lemming abundance each year. Spatial variation in bird abundance matched what was expected based on previous ecological knowledge, but weather and lemming abundance also significantly influenced the abundance of some guilds. In particular, songbirds were less abundant during the cool, wet summer with moderate snow cover, and shorebirds and gulls declined with lemming abundance. The abundance of geese did not vary over time, possibly because benefits created by moderate spring snow cover were offset by increased fox predation when lemmings were scarce. Our study provides an example of a simple way to monitor the correlation between weather, spring snow cover, lemming abundance, and spatiotemporal variations in Arctic-breeding birds. PMID:24983471

The influence of weather and lemmings on spatiotemporal variation in the abundance of multiple avian guilds in the arctic.

PubMed

Robinson, Barry G; Franke, Alastair; Derocher, Andrew E

2014-01-01

Climate change is occurring more rapidly in the Arctic than other places in the world, which is likely to alter the distribution and abundance of migratory birds breeding there. A warming climate can provide benefits to birds by decreasing spring snow cover, but increases in the frequency of summer rainstorms, another product of climate change, may reduce foraging opportunities for insectivorous birds. Cyclic lemming populations in the Arctic also influence bird abundance because Arctic foxes begin consuming bird eggs when lemmings decline. The complex interaction between summer temperature, precipitation, and the lemming cycle hinder our ability to predict how Arctic-breeding birds will respond to climate change. The main objective of this study was to investigate the relationship between annual variation in weather, spring snow cover, lemming abundance and spatiotemporal variation in the abundance of multiple avian guilds in a tundra ecosystem in central Nunavut, Canada: songbirds, shorebirds, gulls, loons, and geese. We spatially stratified our study area based on vegetation productivity, terrain ruggedness, and freshwater abundance, and conducted distance sampling to estimate strata-specific densities of each guild during the summers of 2010-2012. We also monitored temperature, rainfall, spring snow cover, and lemming abundance each year. Spatial variation in bird abundance matched what was expected based on previous ecological knowledge, but weather and lemming abundance also significantly influenced the abundance of some guilds. In particular, songbirds were less abundant during the cool, wet summer with moderate snow cover, and shorebirds and gulls declined with lemming abundance. The abundance of geese did not vary over time, possibly because benefits created by moderate spring snow cover were offset by increased fox predation when lemmings were scarce. Our study provides an example of a simple way to monitor the correlation between weather, spring snow cover, lemming abundance, and spatiotemporal variations in Arctic-breeding birds.

New insights into ocean sunfish (Mola mola) abundance and seasonal distribution in the northeast Atlantic.

PubMed

Breen, Patricia; Cañadas, Ana; Cadhla, Oliver Ó; Mackey, Mick; Scheidat, Meike; Geelhoed, Steve C V; Rogan, Emer; Jessopp, Mark

2017-05-17

The ocean sunfish, Mola mola, is the largest teleost fish in the world. Despite being found in all oceans of the world, little is known about its abundance and factors driving its distribution. In this study we provide the first abundance estimates for sunfish in offshore waters in the northeast Atlantic and the first record of extensive sunfish presence in these waters year-round. Abundance estimates and predictive distributions for sunfish in approximately 300,000 km² of the northeast Atlantic were derived from large scale offshore aerial surveys in 2015-2016 using distance sampling techniques. Generalized additive models of sunfish density were fitted to survey data from 17,360 km of line transect effort resulting in minimum abundance estimates of 12,702 (CI: 9,864-16,357) in the summer (Density = 0.043 ind/km²) and 8,223 individuals (CI: 6,178-10,946) (Density = 0.028 ind/km²) in the winter. Density surface models predicted seasonal shifts in distribution and highlighted the importance of the mixed layer depth, possibly related to thermoregulation following deep foraging dives. The abundance estimate and estimated daily consumption of 2,600 tonnes of jellyfish in the northeast Atlantic highlights the need to re-assess the importance of this species in the pelagic ecosystem, and its role in top-down control of jellyfish blooms.

Estimating aboveground biomass of mariola (Parthenium incanum) from plant dimensions

Treesearch

Carlos Villalobos

2007-01-01

The distribution and abundance of plant biomass in space and time are important properties of rangeland ecosystem. Land managers and researchers require reliable shrub weight estimates to evaluate site productivity, food abundance, treatment effects, and stocking rates. Rapid, nondestructive methods are needed to estimate shrub biomass in semi-arid ecosystems. Shrub...

The Solar Twin Planet Search. III. The [Y/Mg] clock: estimating stellar ages of solar-type stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tucci Maia, M.; Ramírez, I.; Meléndez, J.; Bedell, M.; Bean, J. L.; Asplund, M.

2016-05-01

Context. Solar twins are stars with similar stellar (surface) parameters to the Sun that can have a wide range of ages. This provides an opportunity to analyze the variation of their chemical abundances with age. Nissen (2015, A&A, 579, A52) recently suggested that the abundances of the s-process element Y and the α-element Mg could be used to estimate stellar ages. Aims: This paper aims to determine with high precision the Y, Mg, and Fe abundances for a sample of 88 solar twins that span a broad age range (0.3-10.0 Gyr) and investigate their use for estimating ages. Methods: We obtained high-quality Magellan Inamori Kyocera Echelle (MIKE) spectra and determined Y and Mg abundances using equivalent widths and a line-by-line differential method within a 1D LTE framework. Stellar parameters and iron abundances were measured in Paper I of this series for all stars, but a few (three) required a small revision. Results: The [Y/Mg] ratio shows a strong correlation with age. It has a slope of -0.041 ± 0.001 dex/Gyr and a significance of 41σ. This is in excellent agreement with the relation first proposed by Nissen (2015). We found some outliers that turned out to be binaries where mass transfer may have enhanced the yttrium abundance. Given a precise measurement of [Y/Mg] with typical error of 0.02 dex in solar twins, our formula can be used to determine a stellar age with ~0.8 Gyr precision in the 0 to 10 Gyr range. Based on observations obtained at the Clay Magellan Telescopes at Las Campanas Observatory, Chile and at the 3.6 m Telescope at the La Silla ESO Observatory, Chile (program ID 188.C-0265).

Nonlinear Spectral Mixture Modeling to Estimate Water-Ice Abundance of Martian Regolith

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gyalay, Szilard; Chu, Kathryn; Zeev Noe Dobrea, Eldar

2017-10-01

We present a novel technique to estimate the abundance of water-ice in the Martian permafrost using Phoenix Surface Stereo Imager multispectral data. In previous work, Cull et al. (2010) estimated the abundance of water-ice in trenches dug by the Mars Phoenix lander by modeling the spectra of the icy regolith using the radiative transfer methods described in Hapke (2008) with optical constants for Mauna Kea palagonite (Clancy et al., 1995) as a substitute for unknown Martian regolith optical constants. Our technique, which uses the radiative transfer methods described in Shkuratov et al. (1999), seeks to eliminate the uncertainty that stems from not knowing the composition of the Martian regolith by using observations of the Martian soil before and after the water-ice has sublimated away. We use observations of the desiccated regolith sample to estimate its complex index of refraction from its spectrum. This removes any a priori assumptions of Martian regolith composition, limiting our free parameters to the estimated real index of refraction of the dry regolith at one specific wavelength, ice grain size, and regolith porosity. We can then model mixtures of regolith and water-ice, fitting to the original icy spectrum to estimate the ice abundance. To constrain the uncertainties in this technique, we performed laboratory measurements of the spectra of known mixtures of water-ice and dry soils as well as those of soils after desiccation with controlled viewing geometries. Finally, we applied the technique to Phoenix Surface Stereo Imager observations and estimated water-ice abundances consistent with pore-fill in the near-surface ice. This abundance is consistent with atmospheric diffusion, which has implications to our understanding of the history of water-ice on Mars and the role of the regolith at high latitudes as a reservoir of atmospheric H2O.

Status and trends of adult Lost River (Deltistes luxatus) and shortnose (Chasmistes brevirostris) sucker populations in Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon, 2017

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hewitt, David A.; Janney, Eric C.; Hayes, Brian S.; Harris, Alta C.

2018-04-24

Executive SummaryData from a long-term capture-recapture program were used to assess the status and dynamics of populations of two long-lived, federally endangered catostomids in Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon. Lost River suckers (LRS; Deltistes luxatus) and shortnose suckers (SNS; Chasmistes brevirostris) have been captured and tagged with passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags during their spawning migrations in each year since 1995. In addition, beginning in 2005, individuals that had been previously PIT-tagged were re-encountered on remote underwater antennas deployed throughout sucker spawning areas. Captures and remote encounters during the spawning season in spring 2016 were incorporated into capture-recapture analyses of population dynamics.Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) open population capture-recapture models were used to estimate annual survival probabilities, and a reverse-time analog of the CJS model was used to estimate recruitment of new individuals into the spawning populations. In addition, data on the size composition of captured fish were examined to provide corroborating evidence of recruitment. Model estimates of survival and recruitment were used to derive estimates of changes in population size over time and to determine the status of the populations through 2015. Separate analyses were done for each species and also for each subpopulation of LRS. Shortnose suckers and one subpopulation of LRS migrate into tributary rivers to spawn, whereas the other LRS subpopulation spawns at groundwater upwelling areas along the eastern shoreline of the lake.Capture-recapture analyses indicated that with a few exceptions, the survival of males and females in both Lost River sucker subpopulations was high (greater than 0.88) from 1999 to 2015. Survival was notably lower for males from the river in 2000, 2006, and 2012, and for the shoreline areas in 2002. From 2001 to 2015, the abundance of males in the lakeshore spawning subpopulation decreased by at least 64 percent and the abundance of females decreased by at least 56 percent. Capture-recapture models suggested that the abundance of both sexes in the river spawning subpopulation of LRS had increased substantially since 2006; increases were mostly due to large estimated recruitment events in 2006 and 2008. We know that the estimates in 2006 are substantially biased in favor of recruitment because of a sampling issue. We are skeptical of the magnitude of recruitment indicated by the 2008 estimates as well because (1) few small individuals that would indicate the presence of new recruits were captured in that year, and (2) recapture probabilities in recruitment models based on just physical recaptures of fish were lower than desired for robust inferences from capture-recapture models. If we assume instead that little or no recruitment occurred for this subpopulation, the abundance of both sexes in the river spawning subpopulation likely has decreased at rates similar to the rates for the lakeshore spawning subpopulation from 2002 to 2015.Shortnose suckers experienced lower and more variable annual survival than either LRS subpopulation. Annual survival of both sexes was relatively low in 2003, 2004, 2010, and 2012. In addition, female survival was low in 1999 and 2000 while male survival was low in 2002. Survival estimate precision in early years of the study; however, are poor. Capture-recapture models and size composition data indicate that recruitment of new individuals into the SNS spawning population was trivial from 2001 to 2005. Models indicate that more than 10 percent of the population was new recruits in a number of more recent years. As a result, capture-recapture modeling suggests that the abundance of adult spawning SNS was relatively stable from 2006 to 2010. We are skeptical of the estimated recruitment in 2006 because of the known sampling issue. We also are skeptical of the estimated recruitment in other recent years because few small individuals that would indicate the presence of new recruits were captured in any of those years, and recapture probabilities in recruitment models were low. The best-case scenario for SNS, based on capture-recapture recruitment modeling, indicates that the abundance of males in the spawning population decreased by 78 percent and the abundance of females decreased by 77 percent from 2001 to 2015. Decreases in abundance for both sexes are likely greater than these estimates indicate.Despite relatively high survival in most years, we conclude that both species have experienced substantial decreases in the abundance of spawning adults because losses from mortality have not been balanced by recruitment of new individuals. Although capture-recapture data indicate substantial recruitment of new individuals into the spawning populations for SNS and river spawning LRS in some years, size data do not corroborate these estimates. As a result, the status of the endangered sucker populations in Upper Klamath Lake remains distressed, especially for SNS. Our monitoring program provides a robust platform for estimating vital population parameters, evaluating the status of the populations, and assessing the effectiveness of conservation and recovery efforts.

Electrofishing capture probability of smallmouth bass in streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dauwalter, D.C.; Fisher, W.L.

2007-01-01

Abundance estimation is an integral part of understanding the ecology and advancing the management of fish populations and communities. Mark-recapture and removal methods are commonly used to estimate the abundance of stream fishes. Alternatively, abundance can be estimated by dividing the number of individuals sampled by the probability of capture. We conducted a mark-recapture study and used multiple repeated-measures logistic regression to determine the influence of fish size, sampling procedures, and stream habitat variables on the cumulative capture probability for smallmouth bass Micropterus dolomieu in two eastern Oklahoma streams. The predicted capture probability was used to adjust the number of individuals sampled to obtain abundance estimates. The observed capture probabilities were higher for larger fish and decreased with successive electrofishing passes for larger fish only. Model selection suggested that the number of electrofishing passes, fish length, and mean thalweg depth affected capture probabilities the most; there was little evidence for any effect of electrofishing power density and woody debris density on capture probability. Leave-one-out cross validation showed that the cumulative capture probability model predicts smallmouth abundance accurately. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2007.

Designing an effective mark-recapture study of Antarctic blue whales.

PubMed

Peel, David; Bravington, Mark; Kelly, Natalie; Double, Michael C

2015-06-01

To properly conserve and manage wild populations, it is important to have information on abundance and population dynamics. In the case of rare and cryptic species, especially in remote locations, surveys can be difficult and expensive, and run the risk of not producing sample sizes large enough to produce precise estimates. Therefore, it is crucial to conduct preliminary analysis to determine if the study will produce useable estimates. The focus of this paper is a proposed mark-recapture study of Antarctic blue whales (Balaenoptera musculus intermedia). Antarctic blue whales were hunted to near extinction up until the mid- 1960s, when commercial exploitation of this species ended. Current abundance estimates are a decade old. Furthermore, at present, there are no formal circumpolar-level cetacean surveys operating in Antarctic waters and, specifically, there is no strategy to monitor the potential recovery of Antarctic blue whales. Hence the work in this paper was motivated by the need to inform decisions on strategies for future monitoring of Antarctic blue whale population. The paper describes a model to predict the precision and bias of estimates from a proposed survey program. The analysis showed that mark-recapture is indeed a suitable method to provide a circumpolar abundance estimate of Antarctic blue whales, with precision of the abundance, at the midpoint of the program, predicted to be between 0.2 and 0.3. However, this was only if passive acoustic tracking was utilized to increase the encounter rate. The analysis also provided guidance on general design for an Antarctic blue whale program, showing that it requires a 12-year duration; although surveys do not necessarily need to be run every year if multiple vessels are available to clump effort. Mark-recapture is based on a number of assumptions; it was evident from the analysis that ongoing analysis and monitoring of the data would be required to check such assumptions hold (e.g., test for heterogeneity), with the modeling adjusted as needed.

A Pipeline for the Analysis of APOGEE Spectra Based on Equivalent Widths

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arfon Williams, Rob; Bosley, Corinne; Jones, Hayden; Schiavon, Ricardo P.; Allende-Prieto, Carlos; Bizyaev, Dmitry; Carrera, Ricardo; Cunha, Katia M. L.; Nguyen, Duy; Feuillet, Diane; Frinchaboy, Peter M.; García Pérez, Ana; Hasselquist, Sten; Hayden, Michael R.; Hearty, Fred R.; Holtzman, Jon A.; Johnson, Jennifer; Majewski, Steven R.; Meszaros, Szabolcs; Nidever, David L.; Shetrone, Matthew D.; Smith, Verne V.; Sobeck, Jennifer; Troup, Nicholas William; Wilson, John C.; Zasowski, Gail

2015-01-01

The Apache Point Galactic Evolution Experiment (APOGEE) forms part of the third Sloan Digital Sky Survey and has obtained high resolution, high signal-to-noise infrared spectra for ~1.3 x 105 stars across the galactic bulge, disc and halo. From these, stellar parameters are derived together with abundances for various elements using the APOGEE Stellar Parameters and Chemical Abundance Pipeline (ASPCAP). In this poster we report preliminary results from application of an alternative stellar parameters and abundances pipeline, based on measurements of equivalent widths of absorption lines in APOGEE spectra. The method is based on a sequential grid inversion algorithm, originally designed for the derivation of ages and elemental abundances of stellar populations from line indices in their integrated spectra. It allows for the rapid processing of large spectroscopic data sets from both current and future surveys, such as APOGEE and APOGEE 2, and it is easily adaptable for application to other very large data sets that are being/will be generated by other massive surveys of the stellar populations of the Galaxy. It will also allow the cross checking of ASPCAP results using an independent method. In this poster we present preliminary results showing estimates of effective temperature and iron abundance [Fe/H] for a subset of the APOGEE sample, comparing with DR12 numbers produced by the ASPCAP pipeline.

Comparison of multifrequency acoustic and in situ measurements of zooplankton abundances in Knight Inlet, British Columbia.

PubMed

Trevorrow, Mark V; Mackas, David L; Benfield, Mark C

2005-06-01

An investigation of midwater zooplankton aggregations in a coastal fjord was conducted in November 2002. This study focused on quantitative comparisons between a calibrated, three-frequency (38, 120, and 200 kHz) vessel-based echo-sounder, a multinet towed zooplankton sampler (BIONESS), and a high-resolution underwater camera (ZOOVIS). Daytime layers of euphausiids and amphipods near 70-90-m depth were observed in lower parts of the inlet, especially concentrated by tidal flows around a sill. Quantitative backscatter measurements of euphausiids and amphipods, combined with in situ size and abundance estimates, and using an assumed tilt-angle distribution, were in agreement with averaged fluid-cylinder scattering models produced by Stanton and Chu [ICES J. Mar. Sci. 57, 793-807, (2000)]. Acoustic measurements of physonect siphonophores in the upper inlet were found to have a strong 38-kHz scattering strength, in agreement with a damped bubble scattering model using a diameter of 0.4 mm. In relatively dense euphausiid layers, ZOOVIS abundance estimates were found to be a factor of 2 to 4 higher than the acoustic estimates, potentially due to deviations from assumed euphausiid orientation. Nocturnal near-surface euphausiid scattering exhibited a strong (15 dB) and rapid (seconds) sensitivity to vessel lights, interpreted as due to changing animal orientation.

Comparison of multifrequency acoustic and in situ measurements of zooplankton abundances in Knight Inlet, British Columbia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trevorrow, Mark V.; Mackas, David L.; Benfield, Mark C.

2005-06-01

An investigation of midwater zooplankton aggregations in a coastal fjord was conducted in November 2002. This study focused on quantitative comparisons between a calibrated, three-frequency (38, 120, and 200 kHz) vessel-based echo-sounder, a multinet towed zooplankton sampler (BIONESS), and a high-resolution underwater camera (ZOOVIS). Daytime layers of euphausiids and amphipods near 70-90-m depth were observed in lower parts of the inlet, especially concentrated by tidal flows around a sill. Quantitative backscatter measurements of euphausiids and amphipods, combined with in situ size and abundance estimates, and using an assumed tilt-angle distribution, were in agreement with averaged fluid-cylinder scattering models produced by Stanton and Chu [ICES J. Mar. Sci. 57, 793-807, (2000)]. Acoustic measurements of physonect siphonophores in the upper inlet were found to have a strong 38-kHz scattering strength, in agreement with a damped bubble scattering model using a diameter of 0.4 mm. In relatively dense euphausiid layers, ZOOVIS abundance estimates were found to be a factor of 2 to 4 higher than the acoustic estimates, potentially due to deviations from assumed euphausiid orientation. Nocturnal near-surface euphausiid scattering exhibited a strong (15 dB) and rapid (seconds) sensitivity to vessel lights, interpreted as due to changing animal orientation. .

Accounting for imperfect detection of groups and individuals when estimating abundance.

PubMed

Clement, Matthew J; Converse, Sarah J; Royle, J Andrew

2017-09-01

If animals are independently detected during surveys, many methods exist for estimating animal abundance despite detection probabilities <1. Common estimators include double-observer models, distance sampling models and combined double-observer and distance sampling models (known as mark-recapture-distance-sampling models; MRDS). When animals reside in groups, however, the assumption of independent detection is violated. In this case, the standard approach is to account for imperfect detection of groups, while assuming that individuals within groups are detected perfectly. However, this assumption is often unsupported. We introduce an abundance estimator for grouped animals when detection of groups is imperfect and group size may be under-counted, but not over-counted. The estimator combines an MRDS model with an N-mixture model to account for imperfect detection of individuals. The new MRDS-Nmix model requires the same data as an MRDS model (independent detection histories, an estimate of distance to transect, and an estimate of group size), plus a second estimate of group size provided by the second observer. We extend the model to situations in which detection of individuals within groups declines with distance. We simulated 12 data sets and used Bayesian methods to compare the performance of the new MRDS-Nmix model to an MRDS model. Abundance estimates generated by the MRDS-Nmix model exhibited minimal bias and nominal coverage levels. In contrast, MRDS abundance estimates were biased low and exhibited poor coverage. Many species of conservation interest reside in groups and could benefit from an estimator that better accounts for imperfect detection. Furthermore, the ability to relax the assumption of perfect detection of individuals within detected groups may allow surveyors to re-allocate resources toward detection of new groups instead of extensive surveys of known groups. We believe the proposed estimator is feasible because the only additional field data required are a second estimate of group size.

Accounting for imperfect detection of groups and individuals when estimating abundance

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clement, Matthew J.; Converse, Sarah J.; Royle, J. Andrew

2017-01-01

If animals are independently detected during surveys, many methods exist for estimating animal abundance despite detection probabilities <1. Common estimators include double-observer models, distance sampling models and combined double-observer and distance sampling models (known as mark-recapture-distance-sampling models; MRDS). When animals reside in groups, however, the assumption of independent detection is violated. In this case, the standard approach is to account for imperfect detection of groups, while assuming that individuals within groups are detected perfectly. However, this assumption is often unsupported. We introduce an abundance estimator for grouped animals when detection of groups is imperfect and group size may be under-counted, but not over-counted. The estimator combines an MRDS model with an N-mixture model to account for imperfect detection of individuals. The new MRDS-Nmix model requires the same data as an MRDS model (independent detection histories, an estimate of distance to transect, and an estimate of group size), plus a second estimate of group size provided by the second observer. We extend the model to situations in which detection of individuals within groups declines with distance. We simulated 12 data sets and used Bayesian methods to compare the performance of the new MRDS-Nmix model to an MRDS model. Abundance estimates generated by the MRDS-Nmix model exhibited minimal bias and nominal coverage levels. In contrast, MRDS abundance estimates were biased low and exhibited poor coverage. Many species of conservation interest reside in groups and could benefit from an estimator that better accounts for imperfect detection. Furthermore, the ability to relax the assumption of perfect detection of individuals within detected groups may allow surveyors to re-allocate resources toward detection of new groups instead of extensive surveys of known groups. We believe the proposed estimator is feasible because the only additional field data required are a second estimate of group size.

A model to estimate the relative position of sites for ligands in serum albumins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Motta, Art Adriel Emidio de Araújo; Grassini, Maria Carolina Vilela; Cortez, Célia Martins; Silva, Dilson

2017-11-01

In this work, we present a mathematical-computational model developed to estimate the relative position of ligand binding sites in HSA and BSA, based on the theory of fluorescence quenching, considering the molecular and spectrofluorimetric differences and similarities between these two albumins. Albumin is the largest and the most abundant serum protein in vertebrates. The ability to bind xenobiotics makes albumin important to the bioavailability and effectiveness of drugs.

An investigation of techniques for the measurement and interpretation of cosmic ray isotopic abundances. Ph.D. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wiedenbeck, M. E.

1977-01-01

An instrument, the Caltech High Energy Isotope Spectrometer Telescope was developed to measure isotopic abundances of cosmic ray nuclei by employing an energy loss - residual energy technique. A detailed analysis was made of the mass resolution capabilities of this instrument. A formalism, based on the leaky box model of cosmic ray propagation, was developed for obtaining isotopic abundance ratios at the cosmic ray sources from abundances measured in local interstellar space for elements having three or more stable isotopes, one of which is believed to be absent at the cosmic ray sources. It was shown that the dominant sources of uncertainty in the derived source ratios are uncorrelated errors in the fragmentation cross sections and statistical uncertainties in measuring local interstellar abundances. These results were applied to estimate the extent to which uncertainties must be reduced in order to distinguish between cosmic ray production in a solar-like environment and in various environments with greater neutron enrichments.

Evaluating Sampling Efficiency in Depletion Surveys Using Hierarchical Bayes

EPA Science Inventory

Estimating animal abundance is essential to natural resource management and conservation. However, the cost associated with abundance estimation can be high for populations that are difficult to sample. Researchers, particularly in fisheries management, often sample such populati...

An integrated data model to estimate spatiotemporal occupancy, abundance, and colonization dynamics.

PubMed

Williams, Perry J; Hooten, Mevin B; Womble, Jamie N; Esslinger, George G; Bower, Michael R; Hefley, Trevor J

2017-02-01

Ecological invasions and colonizations occur dynamically through space and time. Estimating the distribution and abundance of colonizing species is critical for efficient management or conservation. We describe a statistical framework for simultaneously estimating spatiotemporal occupancy and abundance dynamics of a colonizing species. Our method accounts for several issues that are common when modeling spatiotemporal ecological data including multiple levels of detection probability, multiple data sources, and computational limitations that occur when making fine-scale inference over a large spatiotemporal domain. We apply the model to estimate the colonization dynamics of sea otters (Enhydra lutris) in Glacier Bay, in southeastern Alaska. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Contribution of fungi to primary biogenic aerosols in the atmosphere: wet and dry discharged spores, carbohydrates, and inorganic ions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elbert, W.; Taylor, P. E.; Andreae, M. O.; Pöschl, U.

2007-09-01

Biogenic aerosols play important roles in atmospheric chemistry physics, the biosphere, climate, and public health. Here, we show that fungi which actively discharge their spores with liquids into the air, in particular actively wet spore discharging Ascomycota (AAM) and actively wet spore discharging Basidiomycota (ABM), are a major source of primary biogenic aerosol particles and components. We present the first estimates for the global average emission rates of fungal spores. Measurement results and budget calculations based on investigations in Amazonia (Balbina, Brazil, July 2001) indicate that the spores of AAM and ABM may account for a large proportion of coarse particulate matter in tropical rainforest regions during the wet season (0.7-2.3 μg m-3). For the particle diameter range of 1-10 μm, the estimated proportions are ~25% during day-time, ~45% at night, and ~35% on average. For the sugar alcohol mannitol, the budget calculations indicate that it is suitable for use as a molecular tracer for actively wet discharged basidiospores (ABS). ABM emissions seem to account for most of the atmospheric abundance of mannitol (10-68 ng m-3), and can explain the observed diurnal cycle (higher abundance at night). ABM emissions of hexose carbohydrates might also account for a significant proportion of glucose and fructose in air particulate matter (7-49 ng m-3), but the literature-derived ratios are not consistent with the observed diurnal cycle (lower abundance at night). AAM emissions appear to account for a large proportion of potassium in air particulate matter over tropical rainforest regions during the wet season (17-43 ng m-3), and they can also explain the observed diurnal cycle (higher abundance at night). The results of our investigations and budget calculations for tropical rainforest aerosols are consistent with measurements performed at other locations. Based on the average abundance of mannitol reported for extratropical continental boundary layer air (~25 ng m-3), we have also calculated a value of ~17 Tg yr-1 as a first estimate for the global average emission rate of ABS over land surfaces, which is consistent with the typically observed concentrations of ABS (~10³-104 m-3; ~0.1-1 μg m-3). The global average atmospheric abundance and emission rate of total fungal spores, including wet and dry discharged species, are estimated to be higher by a factor of about three, i.e. 1 μg m-3 and ~50 Tg yr-1. Comparisons with estimated rates of emission and formation of other major types of organic aerosol (~47 Tg yr-1 of anthropogenic primary organic aerosol; 12-70 Tg yr-1 of secondary organic aerosol) indicate that emissions from fungi should be taken into account as a significant global source of organic aerosol. The effects of fungal spores and related chemical components might be particularly important in tropical regions, where both physicochemical processes in the atmosphere and biological activity at the Earth's surface are particularly intense, and where the abundance of fungal spores and related chemical compounds are typically higher than in extratropical regions.

Linking occupancy surveys with habitat characteristics to estimate abundance and distribution in an endangered cryptic bird

USGS Publications Warehouse

Crampton, Lisa H.; Brinck, Kevin W.; Pias, Kyle E.; Heindl, Barbara A. P.; Savre, Thomas; Diegmann, Julia S.; Paxton, Eben H.

2017-01-01

Accurate estimates of the distribution and abundance of endangered species are crucial to determine their status and plan recovery options, but such estimates are often difficult to obtain for species with low detection probabilities or that occur in inaccessible habitats. The Puaiohi (Myadestes palmeri) is a cryptic species endemic to Kauaʻi, Hawai‘i, and restricted to high elevation ravines that are largely inaccessible. To improve current population estimates, we developed an approach to model distribution and abundance of Puaiohi across their range by linking occupancy surveys to habitat characteristics, territory density, and landscape attributes. Occupancy per station ranged from 0.17 to 0.82, and was best predicted by the number and vertical extent of cliffs, cliff slope, stream width, and elevation. To link occupancy estimates with abundance, we used territory mapping data to estimate the average number of territories per survey station (0.44 and 0.66 territories per station in low and high occupancy streams, respectively), and the average number of individuals per territory (1.9). We then modeled Puaiohi occupancy as a function of two remote-sensed measures of habitat (stream sinuosity and elevation) to predict occupancy across its entire range. We combined predicted occupancy with estimates of birds per station to produce a global population estimate of 494 (95% CI 414–580) individuals. Our approach is a model for using multiple independent sources of information to accurately track population trends, and we discuss future directions for modeling abundance of this, and other, rare species.

How many tigers Panthera tigris are there in Huai Kha Khaeng Wildlife Sanctuary, Thailand? An estimate using photographic capture-recapture sampling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Simcharoen, S.; Pattanavibool, A.; Karanth, K.U.; Nichols, J.D.; Kumar, N.S.

2007-01-01

We used capture-recapture analyses to estimate the density of a tiger Panthera tigris population in the tropical forests of Huai Kha Khaeng Wildlife Sanctuary, Thailand, from photographic capture histories of 15 distinct individuals. The closure test results (z = 0.39, P = 0.65) provided some evidence in support of the demographic closure assumption. Fit of eight plausible closed models to the data indicated more support for model Mh, which incorporates individual heterogeneity in capture probabilities. This model generated an average capture probability $\\hat p$ = 0.42 and an abundance estimate of $\\widehat{N}(\\widehat{SE}[\\widehat{N}])$ = 19 (9.65) tigers. The sampled area of $\\widehat{A}(W)(\\widehat{SE}[\\widehat{A}(W)])$ = 477.2 (58.24) km2 yielded a density estimate of $\\widehat{D}(\\widehat{SE}[\\widehat{D}])$ = 3.98 (0.51) tigers per 100 km2. Huai Kha Khaeng Wildlife Sanctuary could therefore hold 113 tigers and the entire Western Forest Complex c. 720 tigers. Although based on field protocols that constrained us to use sub-optimal analyses, this estimated tiger density is comparable to tiger densities in Indian reserves that support moderate prey abundances. However, tiger densities in well-protected Indian reserves with high prey abundances are three times higher. If given adequate protection we believe that the Western Forest Complex of Thailand could potentially harbour >2,000 wild tigers, highlighting its importance for global tiger conservation. The monitoring approaches we recommend here would be useful for managing this tiger population.

Comparison of day snorkeling, night snorkeling, and electrofishing to estimate bull trout abundance and size structure in a second-order Idaho stream

Treesearch

Russell F. Thurow; Daniel J. Schill

1996-01-01

Biologists lack sufficient information to develop protocols for sampling the abundance and size structure of bull trout Salvelinus confluentus. We compared summer estimates of the abundance and size structure of bull trout in a second-order central Idaho stream, derived by day snorkeling, night snorkeling, and electrofishing. We also examined the influence of water...

ELM: an Algorithm to Estimate the Alpha Abundance from Low-resolution Spectra

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bu, Yude; Zhao, Gang; Pan, Jingchang; Bharat Kumar, Yerra

2016-01-01

We have investigated a novel methodology using the extreme learning machine (ELM) algorithm to determine the α abundance of stars. Applying two methods based on the ELM algorithm—ELM+spectra and ELM+Lick indices—to the stellar spectra from the ELODIE database, we measured the α abundance with a precision better than 0.065 dex. By applying these two methods to the spectra with different signal-to-noise ratios (S/Ns) and different resolutions, we found that ELM+spectra is more robust against degraded resolution and ELM+Lick indices is more robust against variation in S/N. To further validate the performance of ELM, we applied ELM+spectra and ELM+Lick indices to SDSS spectra and estimated α abundances with a precision around 0.10 dex, which is comparable to the results given by the SEGUE Stellar Parameter Pipeline. We further applied ELM to the spectra of stars in Galactic globular clusters (M15, M13, M71) and open clusters (NGC 2420, M67, NGC 6791), and results show good agreement with previous studies (within 1σ). A comparison of the ELM with other widely used methods including support vector machine, Gaussian process regression, artificial neural networks, and linear least-squares regression shows that ELM is efficient with computational resources and more accurate than other methods.

Defining microbial community composition and seasonal variation in a sewage treatment plant in India using a down-flow hanging sponge reactor.

PubMed

Nomoto, Naoki; Hatamoto, Masashi; Hirakata, Yuga; Ali, Muntjeer; Jayaswal, Komal; Iguchi, Akinori; Okubo, Tsutomu; Takahashi, Masanobu; Kubota, Kengo; Tagawa, Tadashi; Uemura, Shigeki; Yamaguchi, Takashi; Harada, Hideki

2018-05-01

The characteristics of the microbial community in a practical-scale down-flow hanging sponge (DHS) reactor, high in organic matter and sulfate ion concentration, and the seasonal variation of the microbial community composition were investigated. Microorganisms related to sulfur oxidation and reduction (2-27%), as well as Leucobacter (7.50%), were abundant in the reactor. Anaerobic bacteria (27-38% in the first layer) were also in abundance and were found to contribute to the removal of organic matter from the sewage in the reactor. By comparing the Simpson index, the abundance-based coverage estimator (ACE) index, and the species composition of the microbial community across seasons (summer/dry, summer/rainy, autumn/dry, and winter/dry), the microbial community was found to change in composition only during the winter season. In addition to the estimation of seasonal variation, the difference in the microbial community composition along the axes of the DHS reactor was investigated for the first time. Although the abundance of each bacterial species differed along both axes of the reactor, the change of the community composition in the reactor was found to be greater along the vertical axis than the horizontal axis of the DHS reactor.

Body size shifts and early warning signals precede the historic collapse of whale stocks.

PubMed

Clements, Christopher F; Blanchard, Julia L; Nash, Kirsty L; Hindell, Mark A; Ozgul, Arpat

2017-06-22

Predicting population declines is a key challenge in the face of global environmental change. Abundance-based early warning signals have been shown to precede population collapses; however, such signals are sensitive to the low reliability of abundance estimates. Here, using historical data on whales harvested during the 20th century, we demonstrate that early warning signals can be present not only in the abundance data, but also in the more reliable body size data of wild populations. We show that during the period of commercial whaling, the mean body size of caught whales declined dramatically (by up to 4 m over a 70-year period), leading to early warning signals being detectable up to 40 years before the global collapse of whale stocks. Combining abundance and body size data can reduce the length of the time series required to predict collapse, and decrease the chances of false positive early warning signals.

Primordial helium abundance determination using sulphur as metallicity tracer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernández, Vital; Terlevich, Elena; Díaz, Angeles I.; Terlevich, Roberto; Rosales-Ortega, F. F.

2018-05-01

The primordial helium abundance YP is calculated using sulphur as metallicity tracer in the classical methodology (with YP as an extrapolation of Y to zero metals). The calculated value, YP, S = 0.244 ± 0.006, is in good agreement with the estimate from the Planck experiment, as well as, determinations in the literature using oxygen as the metallicity tracer. The chemical analysis includes the sustraction of the nebular continuum and of the stellar continuum computed from simple stellar population synthesis grids. The S+2 content is measured from the near infrared [SIII]λλ9069Å, 9532Å lines, while an ICF(S3 +) is proposed based on the Ar3 +/Ar2 + fraction. Finally, we apply a multivariable linear regression using simultaneously oxygen, nitrogen and sulphur abundances for the same sample to determine the primordial helium abundance resulting in YP - O, N, S = 0.245 ± 0.007.

Upscaling species richness and abundances in tropical forests

PubMed Central

Tovo, Anna; Suweis, Samir; Formentin, Marco; Favretti, Marco; Volkov, Igor; Banavar, Jayanth R.; Azaele, Sandro; Maritan, Amos

2017-01-01

The quantification of tropical tree biodiversity worldwide remains an open and challenging problem. More than two-fifths of the number of worldwide trees can be found either in tropical or in subtropical forests, but only ≈0.000067% of species identities are known. We introduce an analytical framework that provides robust and accurate estimates of species richness and abundances in biodiversity-rich ecosystems, as confirmed by tests performed on both in silico–generated and real forests. Our analysis shows that the approach outperforms other methods. In particular, we find that upscaling methods based on the log-series species distribution systematically overestimate the number of species and abundances of the rare species. We finally apply our new framework on 15 empirical tropical forest plots and quantify the minimum percentage cover that should be sampled to achieve a given average confidence interval in the upscaled estimate of biodiversity. Our theoretical framework confirms that the forests studied are comprised of a large number of rare or hyper-rare species. This is a signature of critical-like behavior of species-rich ecosystems and can provide a buffer against extinction. PMID:29057324

Oxygen abundances in halo giants. I - Giants in the very metal-poor globular clusters M92 and M15 and the metal-poor halo field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sneden, Christopher; Kraft, Robert P.; Prosser, Charles F.; Langer, G. E.

1991-12-01

Oxygen, iron, vanadium, and scandium abundances are derived for very metal-poor giants in the globular clusters M92 and M15, and giants of comparable metallicity in the local halo field. The forbidden O I line dublet (6300, 6363) and nearby metallic lines in spectra are analyzed using line analysis and spectral synthesis codes. The Fe/H abundance for M92 is estimated at -2.25 +/-0.02 based on nine giants with a range of 500 K in effective temperature. No evidence for star-to-star variations in the Fe/H abundance was found. O-rich and O-poor stars appear intermixed in the H-R diagram. O - N nuclear synthesis and mixing to the surface are proposed as the best explanation for the low-oxygen giants. The nitrogen abundances obtained earlier for nine of the ten halo field giants in this sample are incompatible with the very large nitrogen abundances expected of the O/Fe abundance of about + 1.2 in halo field subdwarfs, as found by Abia and Rebolo (1989), and not more than 0.6 in halo giants, as found in this and other studies.

Incorporating availability for detection in estimates of bird abundance

USGS Publications Warehouse

Diefenbach, D.R.; Marshall, M.R.; Mattice, J.A.; Brauning, D.W.

2007-01-01

Several bird-survey methods have been proposed that provide an estimated detection probability so that bird-count statistics can be used to estimate bird abundance. However, some of these estimators adjust counts of birds observed by the probability that a bird is detected and assume that all birds are available to be detected at the time of the survey. We marked male Henslow's Sparrows (Ammodramus henslowii) and Grasshopper Sparrows (A. savannarum) and monitored their behavior during May-July 2002 and 2003 to estimate the proportion of time they were available for detection. We found that the availability of Henslow's Sparrows declined in late June to <10% for 5- or 10-min point counts when a male had to sing and be visible to the observer; but during 20 May-19 June, males were available for detection 39.1% (SD = 27.3) of the time for 5-min point counts and 43.9% (SD = 28.9) of the time for 10-min point counts (n = 54). We detected no temporal changes in availability for Grasshopper Sparrows, but estimated availability to be much lower for 5-min point counts (10.3%, SD = 12.2) than for 10-min point counts (19.2%, SD = 22.3) when males had to be visible and sing during the sampling period (n = 80). For distance sampling, we estimated the availability of Henslow's Sparrows to be 44.2% (SD = 29.0) and the availability of Grasshopper Sparrows to be 20.6% (SD = 23.5). We show how our estimates of availability can be incorporated in the abundance and variance estimators for distance sampling and modify the abundance and variance estimators for the double-observer method. Methods that directly estimate availability from bird counts but also incorporate detection probabilities need further development and will be important for obtaining unbiased estimates of abundance for these species.

Climate change likely to reduce orchid bee abundance even in climatic suitable sites.

PubMed

Faleiro, Frederico Valtuille; Nemésio, André; Loyola, Rafael

2018-06-01

Studies have tested whether model predictions based on species' occurrence can predict the spatial pattern of population abundance. The relationship between predicted environmental suitability and population abundance varies in shape, strength and predictive power. However, little attention has been paid to the congruence in predictions of different models fed with occurrence or abundance data, in particular when comparing metrics of climate change impact. Here, we used the ecological niche modeling fit with presence-absence and abundance data of orchid bees to predict the effect of climate change on species and assembly level distribution patterns. In addition, we assessed whether predictions of presence-absence models can be used as a proxy to abundance patterns. We obtained georeferenced abundance data of orchid bees (Hymenoptera: Apidae: Euglossina) in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. Sampling method consisted in attracting male orchid bees to baits of at least five different aromatic compounds and collecting the individuals with entomological nets or bait traps. We limited abundance data to those obtained by similar standard sampling protocol to avoid bias in abundance estimation. We used boosted regression trees to model ecological niches and project them into six climate models and two Representative Concentration Pathways. We found that models based on species occurrences worked as a proxy for changes in population abundance when the output of the models were continuous; results were very different when outputs were discretized to binary predictions. We found an overall trend of diminishing abundance in the future, but a clear retention of climatically suitable sites too. Furthermore, geographic distance to gained climatic suitable areas can be very short, although it embraces great variation. Changes in species richness and turnover would be concentrated in western and southern Atlantic Forest. Our findings offer support to the ongoing debate of suitability-abundance models and can be used to support spatial conservation prioritization schemes and species triage in Atlantic Forest. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Behavior of Abundances in Chemically Peculiar Dwarf and Subgiant A-Type Stars: HD 23193 and HD 170920

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kılıçoğlu, Tolgahan; Çalışkan, Şeyma; Ünal, Kübraözge

2018-01-01

To understand the origin of the abundance peculiarities of non-magnetic A-type stars, we present the first detailed chemical abundance analysis of a metallic line star HD 23193 (A2m) and an A-type subgiant HD 170920 (A5), which could have been a HgMn star on the main sequence. Our analysis is based on medium (R ∼ 14,000) and high (R ∼ 40,000) resolution spectroscopic data of the stars. The abundances of 18 elements are derived: C, O, Na, Mg, Al, Si, S, Ca, Sc, Ti, Cr, Mn, Fe, Ni, Zn, Sr, Y, and Ba. The masses of HD 23193 and HD 170920 are estimated from evolutionary tracks as 2.3 ± 0.1 M ⊙ and 2.9 ± 0.1 M ⊙. The ages are found to be 635 ± 33 Myr for HD 23193 and 480 ± 50 Myr for HD 170920 using isochrones. The abundance pattern of HD 23193 shows deviations from solar values in the iron-peak elements and indicates remarkable overabundances of Sr (1.16), Y (1.03), and Ba (1.24) with respect to the solar abundances. We compare the derived abundances of this moderately rotating (v\\sin i =37.5 km s‑1) Am star to the theoretical chemical evolution models including rotational mixing. The theoretically predicted abundances resemble our derived abundance pattern, except for a few elements (Si and Cr). For HD 170920, we find nearly solar abundances, except for C (‑0.43), S (0.16), Ti (0.15), Ni (0.16), Zn (0.41), Y (0.57), and Ba (0.97). Its low rotational velocity (v\\sin i=14.5 km s‑1), reduced carbon abundance, and enhanced heavy element abundances suggest that the star is most likely an evolved HgMn star. Based on observations made at the TÜBITAK National Observatory (Program ID 14BRTT150–671), and the Ankara University Observatory, Turkey.

Dramatic Differences in Gut Bacterial Densities Correlate with Diet and Habitat in Rainforest Ants.

PubMed

Sanders, Jon G; Lukasik, Piotr; Frederickson, Megan E; Russell, Jacob A; Koga, Ryuichi; Knight, Rob; Pierce, Naomi E

2017-10-01

Abundance is a key parameter in microbial ecology, and important to estimates of potential metabolite flux, impacts of dispersal, and sensitivity of samples to technical biases such as laboratory contamination. However, modern amplicon-based sequencing techniques by themselves typically provide no information about the absolute abundance of microbes. Here, we use fluorescence microscopy and quantitative polymerase chain reaction as independent estimates of microbial abundance to test the hypothesis that microbial symbionts have enabled ants to dominate tropical rainforest canopies by facilitating herbivorous diets, and compare these methods to microbial diversity profiles from 16S rRNA amplicon sequencing. Through a systematic survey of ants from a lowland tropical forest, we show that the density of gut microbiota varies across several orders of magnitude among ant lineages, with median individuals from many genera only marginally above detection limits. Supporting the hypothesis that microbial symbiosis is important to dominance in the canopy, we find that the abundance of gut bacteria is positively correlated with stable isotope proxies of herbivory among canopy-dwelling ants, but not among ground-dwelling ants. Notably, these broad findings are much more evident in the quantitative data than in the 16S rRNA sequencing data. Our results provide quantitative context to the potential role of bacteria in facilitating the ants' dominance of the tropical rainforest canopy, and have broad implications for the interpretation of sequence-based surveys of microbial diversity. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Integrative and Comparative Biology. All rights reserved. For permissions please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Distribution and abundance of Millicoma Dace in the Coos River Basin, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Scheerer, Paul D.; Peterson, James T.; Clements, Shaun

2017-01-01

The Millicoma Dace Rhinichthys cataractae is a form of Longnose Dace endemic to the Coos River drainage in southwestern Oregon. Sparse species records in the Oregon State University Ichthyology Collection and database and infrequent recent encounters prompted surveys to assess the current status and distribution of the species. In 2014, we surveyed locations that had historically supported Millicoma Dace using backpack electrofishing to describe their current distribution and abundance at these locations. In 2015, we extended these surveys further upstream in the South Coos River basin, outside of the documented historical range. We used an N-mixture model to estimate abundance and capture probability for Millicoma Dace at each sampling location. We evaluated the effects of habitat covariates on both capture probability and abundance at each sample site. We found Millicoma Dace were widespread throughout their historical range and in the South Coos River sites outside of their documented historical range. We only found Millicoma Dace associated with native fishes; we did not collect any nonnative fish during our surveys. We collected Millicoma Dace exclusively from swift-water habitats, which were relatively uncommon in the basin, and found them typically associated with cobble or boulder substrates. Millicoma Dace were most abundant in the South Fork Coos and West Fork Millicoma River subbasins. We estimated capture probabilities for Millicoma Dace ranging from 9% when substrate was dominated by bedrock to 28% when substrate was dominated by cobble or gravel. Abundance estimates ranged from 1 to 560 dace per sampling location with a total estimated abundance (sum of site estimates) of over 3200 dace for the sites we sampled.

When are genetic methods useful for estimating contemporary abundance and detecting population trends?

Treesearch

David A. Tallmon; Dave Gregovich; Robin S. Waples; C. Scott Baker; Jennifer Jackson; Barbara L. Taylor; Eric Archer; Karen K. Martien; Fred W. Allendorf; Michael K. Schwartz

2010-01-01

The utility of microsatellite markers for inferring population size and trend has not been rigorously examined, even though these markers are commonly used to monitor the demography of natural populations. We assessed the ability of a linkage disequilibrium estimator of effective population size (Ne) and a simple capture-recapture estimator of abundance (N) to quantify...

Reevaluation of mid-Pliocene North Atlantic sea surface temperatures

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robinson, Marci M.; Dowsett, Harry J.; Dwyer, Gary S.; Lawrence, Kira T.

2008-01-01

Multiproxy temperature estimation requires careful attention to biological, chemical, physical, temporal, and calibration differences of each proxy and paleothermometry method. We evaluated mid-Pliocene sea surface temperature (SST) estimates from multiple proxies at Deep Sea Drilling Project Holes 552A, 609B, 607, and 606, transecting the North Atlantic Drift. SST estimates derived from faunal assemblages, foraminifer Mg/Ca, and alkenone unsaturation indices showed strong agreement at Holes 552A, 607, and 606 once differences in calibration, depth, and seasonality were addressed. Abundant extinct species and/or an unrecognized productivity signal in the faunal assemblage at Hole 609B resulted in exaggerated faunal-based SST estimates but did not affect alkenone-derived or Mg/Ca–derived estimates. Multiproxy mid-Pliocene North Atlantic SST estimates corroborate previous studies documenting high-latitude mid-Pliocene warmth and refine previous faunal-based estimates affected by environmental factors other than temperature. Multiproxy investigations will aid SST estimation in high-latitude areas sensitive to climate change and currently underrepresented in SST reconstructions.

Lunar bulk chemical composition: a post-Gravity Recovery and Interior Laboratory reassessment

PubMed Central

Taylor, G. Jeffrey; Wieczorek, Mark A.

2014-01-01

New estimates of the thickness of the lunar highlands crust based on data from the Gravity Recovery and Interior Laboratory mission, allow us to reassess the abundances of refractory elements in the Moon. Previous estimates of the Moon fall into two distinct groups: earthlike and a 50% enrichment in the Moon compared with the Earth. Revised crustal thicknesses and compositional information from remote sensing and lunar samples indicate that the crust contributes 1.13–1.85 wt% Al2O3 to the bulk Moon abundance. Mare basalt Al2O3 concentrations (8–10 wt%) and Al2O3 partitioning behaviour between melt and pyroxene during partial melting indicate mantle Al2O3 concentration in the range 1.3–3.1 wt%, depending on the relative amounts of pyroxene and olivine. Using crustal and mantle mass fractions, we show that that the Moon and the Earth most likely have the same (within 20%) concentrations of refractory elements. This allows us to use correlations between pairs of refractory and volatile elements to confirm that lunar abundances of moderately volatile elements such as K, Rb and Cs are depleted by 75% in the Moon compared with the Earth and that highly volatile elements, such as Tl and Cd, are depleted by 99%. The earthlike refractory abundances and depleted volatile abundances are strong constraints on lunar formation processes. PMID:25114309

Measuring the expressed abundance of the three phases of water with an imaging spectrometer over melting snow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Green, Robert O.; Painter, Thomas H.; Roberts, Dar A.; Dozier, Jeff

2006-10-01

From imaging spectrometer data, we simultaneously estimate the abundance of the three phases of water in an environment that includes melting snow, basing the analysis on the spectral shift in the absorption coefficient between water vapor, liquid water, and ice at 940, 980, and 1030 nm respectively. We apply a spectral fitting algorithm that measures the expressed abundance of the three phases of water to a data set acquired by the Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) over Mount Rainier, Washington, on 14 June 1996. Precipitable water vapor varies from 1 mm over the summit of Mount Rainier to 10 mm over the lower valleys to the northwest. Equivalent path absorption of liquid water varies from 0 to 13 mm, with the zero values over rocky areas and high-elevation snow and the high values associated with liquid water held in vegetation canopies and in melting snow. Ice abundance varies from 0 to 30 mm equivalent path absorption in the snow- and glacier-covered portions of Mount Rainier. The water and ice abundances are related to the amount of liquid water and the sizes of the ice grains in the near-surface layer. Precision of the estimates, calculated over locally homogeneous areas, indicates an uncertainty of better than 1.5% for all three phases, except for liquid water in vegetation, where an optimally homogeneous site was not found. The analysis supports new strategies for hydrological research and applications as imaging spectrometers become more available.

Lunar bulk chemical composition: a post-Gravity Recovery and Interior Laboratory reassessment.

PubMed

Taylor, G Jeffrey; Wieczorek, Mark A

2014-09-13

New estimates of the thickness of the lunar highlands crust based on data from the Gravity Recovery and Interior Laboratory mission, allow us to reassess the abundances of refractory elements in the Moon. Previous estimates of the Moon fall into two distinct groups: earthlike and a 50% enrichment in the Moon compared with the Earth. Revised crustal thicknesses and compositional information from remote sensing and lunar samples indicate that the crust contributes 1.13-1.85 wt% Al2O3 to the bulk Moon abundance. Mare basalt Al2O3 concentrations (8-10 wt%) and Al2O3 partitioning behaviour between melt and pyroxene during partial melting indicate mantle Al2O3 concentration in the range 1.3-3.1 wt%, depending on the relative amounts of pyroxene and olivine. Using crustal and mantle mass fractions, we show that that the Moon and the Earth most likely have the same (within 20%) concentrations of refractory elements. This allows us to use correlations between pairs of refractory and volatile elements to confirm that lunar abundances of moderately volatile elements such as K, Rb and Cs are depleted by 75% in the Moon compared with the Earth and that highly volatile elements, such as Tl and Cd, are depleted by 99%. The earthlike refractory abundances and depleted volatile abundances are strong constraints on lunar formation processes. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Sampling little fish in big rivers: Larval fish detection probabilities in two Lake Erie tributaries and implications for sampling effort and abundance indices

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pritt, Jeremy J.; DuFour, Mark R.; Mayer, Christine M.; Roseman, Edward F.; DeBruyne, Robin L.

2014-01-01

Larval fish are frequently sampled in coastal tributaries to determine factors affecting recruitment, evaluate spawning success, and estimate production from spawning habitats. Imperfect detection of larvae is common, because larval fish are small and unevenly distributed in space and time, and coastal tributaries are often large and heterogeneous. We estimated detection probabilities of larval fish from several taxa in the Maumee and Detroit rivers, the two largest tributaries of Lake Erie. We then demonstrated how accounting for imperfect detection influenced (1) the probability of observing taxa as present relative to sampling effort and (2) abundance indices for larval fish of two Detroit River species. We found that detection probabilities ranged from 0.09 to 0.91 but were always less than 1.0, indicating that imperfect detection is common among taxa and between systems. In general, taxa with high fecundities, small larval length at hatching, and no nesting behaviors had the highest detection probabilities. Also, detection probabilities were higher in the Maumee River than in the Detroit River. Accounting for imperfect detection produced up to fourfold increases in abundance indices for Lake Whitefish Coregonus clupeaformis and Gizzard Shad Dorosoma cepedianum. The effect of accounting for imperfect detection in abundance indices was greatest during periods of low abundance for both species. Detection information can be used to determine the appropriate level of sampling effort for larval fishes and may improve management and conservation decisions based on larval fish data.

A preliminary assessment of mouflon abundance at the Kahuku Unit of Hawaii Volcanoes National Park

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hess, Steven C.; Kawakami, Ben; Okita, David; Medeiros, Keola

2006-01-01

Hawaii Volcanoes National Park (HAVO) recently acquired the 115,653 acre Kahuku Ranch unit adjacent to the existing Mauna Loa section of HAVO. Kahuku contains numerous exceptional natural resources including many federally listed threatened and endangered species. An apparently large and growing population of alien mouflon sheep (Ovis gmelini musimon), however, threatens sensitive native plants and forest bird habitats. Population composition and abundance estimates were urgently needed to determine the magnitude of resources required to manage this species and justify costs. We surveyed 32,433 acres from helicopter over 2 days in November 2004 during breeding to determine the abundance and population structure. We estimated that there were more than 2,586 ? 705 (90% CI) mouflon at Kahuku. Overall, group sizes averaged 7.8 and the sex ratio was 1:2.4 rams:ewes, but approximately 44% of the population was concentrated in forested areas near ranching operations where group sizes averaged >15 and the sex ratio was 1:3.9 rams:ewes. The remaining 56% of the population occurred widely dispersed in subalpine shrubland and barren lava flows. Abundance estimates are likely to be conservative because they were not adjusted for detection probability. Ground-based surveys of lambs suggest upper biological limit to annual population increase of 33.1% under existing environmental conditions. Historical information used to calculate population trends indicated the apparent rate of population increase to be 21.1%. In the absence of removals, the population increment for 2004-2005, would be more than 546-856, and the population doubling time with these growth rates is 3-4 years.

Estimation of the Relative Abundance of Different Bacteroides and Prevotella Ribotypes in Gut Samples by Restriction Enzyme Profiling of PCR-Amplified 16S rRNA Gene Sequences

PubMed Central

Wood, Jacqueline; Scott, Karen P.; Avguštin, Gorazd; Newbold, C. James; Flint, Harry J.

1998-01-01

We describe an approach for determining the genetic composition of Bacteroides and Prevotella populations in gut contents based on selective amplification of 16S rRNA gene sequences (rDNA) followed by cleavage of the amplified material with restriction enzymes. The relative contributions of different ribotypes to total Bacteroides and Prevotella 16S rDNA are estimated after end labelling of one of the PCR primers, and the contribution of Bacteroides and Prevotella sequences to total eubacterial 16S rDNA is estimated by measuring the binding of oligonucleotide probes to amplified DNA. Bacteroides and Prevotella 16S rDNA accounted for between 12 and 62% of total eubacterial 16S rDNA in samples of ruminal contents from six sheep and a cow. Ribotypes 4, 5, 6, and 7, which include most cultivated rumen Prevotella strains, together accounted for between 20 and 86% of the total amplified Bacteroides and Prevotella rDNA in these samples. The most abundant Bacteroides or Prevotella ribotype in four animals, however, was ribotype 8, for which there is only one known cultured isolate, while ribotypes 1 and 2, which include many colonic Bacteroides spp., were the most abundant in two animals. This indicates that some abundant Bacteroides and Prevotella groups in the rumen are underrepresented among cultured rumen Prevotella isolates. The approach described here provides a rapid, convenient, and widely applicable method for comparing the genotypic composition of bacterial populations in gut samples. PMID:9758785

Atmospheric Sulfur Hexafluoride: Sources, Sinks and Greenhouse Warming

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sze, Nien Dak; Wang, Wei-Chyung; Shia, George; Goldman, Aaron; Murcray, Frank J.; Murcray, David G.; Rinsland, Curtis P.

1993-01-01

Model calculations using estimated reaction rates of sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) with OH and 0('D) indicate that the atmospheric lifetime due to these processes may be very long (25,000 years). An upper limit for the UV cross section would suggest a photolysis lifetime much longer than 1000 years. The possibility of other removal mechanisms are discussed. The estimated lifetimes are consistent with other estimated values based on recent laboratory measurements. There appears to be no known natural source of SF6. An estimate of the current production rate of SF6 is about 5 kt/yr. Based on historical emission rates, we calculated a present-day atmospheric concentrations for SF6 of about 2.5 parts per trillion by volume (pptv) and compared the results with available atmospheric measurements. It is difficult to estimate the atmospheric lifetime of SF6 based on mass balance of the emission rate and observed abundance. There are large uncertainties concerning what portion of the SF6 is released to the atmosphere. Even if the emission rate were precisely known, it would be difficult to distinguish among lifetimes longer than 100 years since the current abundance of SF6 is due to emission in the past three decades. More information on the measured trends over the past decade and observed vertical and latitudinal distributions of SF6 in the lower stratosphere will help to narrow the uncertainty in the lifetime. Based on laboratory-measured IR absorption cross section for SF6, we showed that SF6 is about 3 times more effective as a greenhouse gas compared to CFC 11 on a per molecule basis. However, its effect on atmospheric warming will be minimal because of its very small concentration. We estimated the future concentration of SF6 at 2010 to be 8 and 10 pptv based on two projected emission scenarios. The corresponding equilibrium warming of 0.0035 C and 0.0043 C is to be compared with the estimated warming due to CO2 increase of about 0.8 C in the same period.

Effects of harvesting flowers from shrubs on the persistence and abundance of wild shrub populations at multiple spatial extents.

PubMed

Cabral, Juliano Sarmento; Bond, William J; Midgley, Guy F; Rebelo, Anthony G; Thuiller, Wilfried; Schurr, Frank M

2011-02-01

Wildflower harvesting is an economically important activity of which the ecological effects are poorly understood. We assessed how harvesting of flowers affects shrub persistence and abundance at multiple spatial extents. To this end, we built a process-based model to examine the mean persistence and abundance of wild shrubs whose flowers are subject to harvest (serotinous Proteaceae in the South African Cape Floristic Region). First, we conducted a general sensitivity analysis of how harvesting affects persistence and abundance at nested spatial extents. For most spatial extents and combinations of demographic parameters, persistence and abundance of flowering shrubs decreased abruptly once harvesting rate exceeded a certain threshold. At larger extents, metapopulations supported higher harvesting rates before their persistence and abundance decreased, but persistence and abundance also decreased more abruptly due to harvesting than at smaller extents. This threshold rate of harvest varied with species' dispersal ability, maximum reproductive rate, adult mortality, probability of extirpation or local extinction, strength of Allee effects, and carrying capacity. Moreover, spatial extent interacted with Allee effects and probability of extirpation because both these demographic properties affected the response of local populations to harvesting more strongly than they affected the response of metapopulations. Subsequently, we simulated the effects of harvesting on three Cape Floristic Region Proteaceae species and found that these species reacted differently to harvesting, but their persistence and abundance decreased at low rates of harvest. Our estimates of harvesting rates at maximum sustainable yield differed from those of previous investigations, perhaps because researchers used different estimates of demographic parameters, models of population dynamics, and spatial extent than we did. Good demographic knowledge and careful identification of the spatial extent of interest increases confidence in assessments and monitoring of the effects of harvesting. Our general sensitivity analysis improved understanding of harvesting effects on metapopulation dynamics and allowed qualitative assessment of the probability of extirpation of poorly studied species. ©2010 Society for Conservation Biology.

Re-examination of the relationship between marine virus and microbial cell abundances.

PubMed

Wigington, Charles H; Sonderegger, Derek; Brussaard, Corina P D; Buchan, Alison; Finke, Jan F; Fuhrman, Jed A; Lennon, Jay T; Middelboe, Mathias; Suttle, Curtis A; Stock, Charles; Wilson, William H; Wommack, K Eric; Wilhelm, Steven W; Weitz, Joshua S

2016-01-25

Marine viruses are critical drivers of ocean biogeochemistry, and their abundances vary spatiotemporally in the global oceans, with upper estimates exceeding 10(8) per ml. Over many years, a consensus has emerged that virus abundances are typically tenfold higher than microbial cell abundances. However, the true explanatory power of a linear relationship and its robustness across diverse ocean environments is unclear. Here, we compile 5,671 microbial cell and virus abundance estimates from 25 distinct marine surveys and find substantial variation in the virus-to-microbial cell ratio, in which a 10:1 model has either limited or no explanatory power. Instead, virus abundances are better described as nonlinear, power-law functions of microbial cell abundances. The fitted scaling exponents are typically less than 1, implying that the virus-to-microbial cell ratio decreases with microbial cell density, rather than remaining fixed. The observed scaling also implies that viral effect sizes derived from 'representative' abundances require substantial refinement to be extrapolated to regional or global scales.

Developing methods for assessing abundance and distribution of European oysters (Ostrea edulis) using towed video.

PubMed

Thorngren, Linnea; Dunér Holthuis, Thomas; Lindegarth, Susanne; Lindegarth, Mats

2017-01-01

Due to large-scale habitat losses and increasing pressures, benthic habitats in general, and perhaps oyster beds in particular, are commonly in decline and severely threatened on regional and global scales. Appropriate and cost-efficient methods for mapping and monitoring of the distribution, abundance and quality of remaining oyster populations are fundamental for sustainable management and conservation of these habitats and their associated values. Towed video has emerged as a promising method for surveying benthic communities in a both non-destructive and cost-efficient way. Here we examine its use as a tool for quantification and monitoring of oyster populations by (i) analysing how well abundances can be estimated and how living Ostrea edulis individuals can be distinguished from dead ones, (ii) estimating the variability within and among observers as well as the spatial variability at a number of scales, and finally (iii) evaluating the precision of estimated abundances under different scenarios for monitoring. Overall, the results show that the can be used to quantify abundance and occurrence of Ostrea edulis in heterogeneous environments. There was a strong correlation between abundances determined in the field and abundances estimated by video-analyses (r2 = 0.93), even though video analyses underestimated the total abundance of living oysters by 20%. Additionally, the method was largely repeatable within and among observers and revealed no evident bias in identification of living and dead oysters. We also concluded that the spatial variability was an order of magnitude larger than that due to observer errors. Subsequent modelling of precision showed that the total area sampled was the main determinant of precision and provided general method for determining precision. This study provides a thorough validation of the application of towed video on quantitative estimations of live oysters. The results suggest that the method can indeed be very useful for this purpose and we therefor recommend it for future monitoring of oysters and other threatened habitats and species.

Developing methods for assessing abundance and distribution of European oysters (Ostrea edulis) using towed video

PubMed Central

Dunér Holthuis, Thomas; Lindegarth, Susanne; Lindegarth, Mats

2017-01-01

Due to large-scale habitat losses and increasing pressures, benthic habitats in general, and perhaps oyster beds in particular, are commonly in decline and severely threatened on regional and global scales. Appropriate and cost-efficient methods for mapping and monitoring of the distribution, abundance and quality of remaining oyster populations are fundamental for sustainable management and conservation of these habitats and their associated values. Towed video has emerged as a promising method for surveying benthic communities in a both non-destructive and cost-efficient way. Here we examine its use as a tool for quantification and monitoring of oyster populations by (i) analysing how well abundances can be estimated and how living Ostrea edulis individuals can be distinguished from dead ones, (ii) estimating the variability within and among observers as well as the spatial variability at a number of scales, and finally (iii) evaluating the precision of estimated abundances under different scenarios for monitoring. Overall, the results show that the can be used to quantify abundance and occurrence of Ostrea edulis in heterogeneous environments. There was a strong correlation between abundances determined in the field and abundances estimated by video-analyses (r2 = 0.93), even though video analyses underestimated the total abundance of living oysters by 20%. Additionally, the method was largely repeatable within and among observers and revealed no evident bias in identification of living and dead oysters. We also concluded that the spatial variability was an order of magnitude larger than that due to observer errors. Subsequent modelling of precision showed that the total area sampled was the main determinant of precision and provided general method for determining precision. This study provides a thorough validation of the application of towed video on quantitative estimations of live oysters. The results suggest that the method can indeed be very useful for this purpose and we therefor recommend it for future monitoring of oysters and other threatened habitats and species. PMID:29141028

An evaluation of sex-age-kill (SAK) model performance

USGS Publications Warehouse

Millspaugh, Joshua J.; Skalski, John R.; Townsend, Richard L.; Diefenbach, Duane R.; Boyce, Mark S.; Hansen, Lonnie P.; Kammermeyer, Kent

2009-01-01

The sex-age-kill (SAK) model is widely used to estimate abundance of harvested large mammals, including white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus). Despite a long history of use, few formal evaluations of SAK performance exist. We investigated how violations of the stable age distribution and stationary population assumption, changes to male or female harvest, stochastic effects (i.e., random fluctuations in recruitment and survival), and sampling efforts influenced SAK estimation. When the simulated population had a stable age distribution and λ > 1, the SAK model underestimated abundance. Conversely, when λ < 1, the SAK overestimated abundance. When changes to male harvest were introduced, SAK estimates were opposite the true population trend. In contrast, SAK estimates were robust to changes in female harvest rates. Stochastic effects caused SAK estimates to fluctuate about their equilibrium abundance, but the effect dampened as the size of the surveyed population increased. When we considered both stochastic effects and sampling error at a deer management unit scale the resultant abundance estimates were within ±121.9% of the true population level 95% of the time. These combined results demonstrate extreme sensitivity to model violations and scale of analysis. Without changes to model formulation, the SAK model will be biased when λ ≠ 1. Furthermore, any factor that alters the male harvest rate, such as changes to regulations or changes in hunter attitudes, will bias population estimates. Sex-age-kill estimates may be precise at large spatial scales, such as the state level, but less so at the individual management unit level. Alternative models, such as statistical age-at-harvest models, which require similar data types, might allow for more robust, broad-scale demographic assessments.

2015-2016 Palila abundance estimates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Camp, Richard J.; Brinck, Kevin W.; Banko, Paul C.

2016-01-01

The palila (Loxioides bailleui) population was surveyed annually during 1998−2016 on Mauna Kea Volcano to determine abundance, population trend, and spatial distribution. In the latest surveys, the 2015 population was estimated at 852−1,406 birds (point estimate: 1,116) and the 2016 population was estimated at 1,494−2,385 (point estimate: 1,934). Similar numbers of palila were detected during the first and subsequent counts within each year during 2012−2016; the proportion of the total annual detections in each count ranged from 46% to 56%; and there was no difference in the detection probability due to count sequence. Furthermore, conducting repeat counts improved the abundance estimates by reducing the width of the confidence intervals between 9% and 32% annually. This suggests that multiple counts do not affect bird or observer behavior and can be continued in the future to improve the precision of abundance estimates. Five palila were detected on supplemental survey stations in the Ka‘ohe restoration area, outside the core survey area but still within Palila Critical Habitat (one in 2015 and four in 2016), suggesting that palila are present in habitat that is recovering from cattle grazing on the southwest slope. The average rate of decline during 1998−2016 was 150 birds per year. Over the 18-year monitoring period, the estimated rate of change equated to a 58% decline in the population.

Evaluating a fish monitoring protocol using state-space hierarchical models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Russell, Robin E.; Schmetterling, David A.; Guy, Chris S.; Shepard, Bradley B.; McFarland, Robert; Skaar, Donald

2012-01-01

Using data collected from three river reaches in Montana, we evaluated our ability to detect population trends and predict fish future fish abundance. Data were collected as part of a long-term monitoring program conducted by Montana Fish, Wildlife and Parks to primarily estimate rainbow (Oncorhynchus mykiss) and brown trout (Salmo trutta) abundance in numerous rivers across Montana. We used a hierarchical Bayesian mark-recapture model to estimate fish abundance over time in each of the three river reaches. We then fit a state-space Gompertz model to estimate current trends and future fish populations. Density dependent effects were detected in 1 of the 6 fish populations. Predictions of future fish populations displayed wide credible intervals. Our simulations indicated that given the observed variation in the abundance estimates, the probability of detecting a 30% decline in fish populations over a five-year period was less than 50%. We recommend a monitoring program that is closely tied to management objectives and reflects the precision necessary to make informed management decisions.

Hankin and Reeves' approach to estimating fish abundance in small streams: Limitations and alternatives

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thompson, W.L.

2003-01-01

Hankin and Reeves' (1988) approach to estimating fish abundance in small streams has been applied in stream fish studies across North America. However, their population estimator relies on two key assumptions: (1) removal estimates are equal to the true numbers of fish, and (2) removal estimates are highly correlated with snorkel counts within a subset of sampled stream units. Violations of these assumptions may produce suspect results. To determine possible sources of the assumption violations, I used data on the abundance of steelhead Oncorhynchus mykiss from Hankin and Reeves' (1988) in a simulation composed of 50,000 repeated, stratified systematic random samples from a spatially clustered distribution. The simulation was used to investigate effects of a range of removal estimates, from 75% to 100% of true fish abundance, on overall stream fish population estimates. The effects of various categories of removal-estimates-to-snorkel-count correlation levels (r = 0.75-1.0) on fish population estimates were also explored. Simulation results indicated that Hankin and Reeves' approach may produce poor results unless removal estimates exceed at least 85% of the true number of fish within sampled units and unless correlations between removal estimates and snorkel counts are at least 0.90. A potential modification to Hankin and Reeves' approach is the inclusion of environmental covariates that affect detection rates of fish into the removal model or other mark-recapture model. A potential alternative approach is to use snorkeling combined with line transect sampling to estimate fish densities within stream units. As with any method of population estimation, a pilot study should be conducted to evaluate its usefulness, which requires a known (or nearly so) population of fish to serve as a benchmark for evaluating bias and precision of estimators.

A collaborative approach for estimating terrestrial wildlife abundance

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ransom, Jason I.; Kaczensky, Petra; Lubow, Bruce C.; Ganbaatar, Oyunsaikhan; Altansukh, Nanjid

2012-01-01

Accurately estimating abundance of wildlife is critical for establishing effective conservation and management strategies. Aerial methodologies for estimating abundance are common in developed countries, but they are often impractical for remote areas of developing countries where many of the world's endangered and threatened fauna exist. The alternative terrestrial methodologies can be constrained by limitations on access, technology, and human resources, and have rarely been comprehensively conducted for large terrestrial mammals at landscape scales. We attempted to overcome these problems by incorporating local peoples into a simultaneous point count of Asiatic wild ass (Equus hemionus) and goitered gazelle (Gazella subgutturosa) across the Great Gobi B Strictly Protected Area, Mongolia. Paired observers collected abundance and covariate metrics at 50 observation points and we estimated population sizes using distance sampling theory, but also assessed individual observer error to examine potential bias introduced by the large number of minimally trained observers. We estimated 5671 (95% CI = 3611–8907) wild asses and 5909 (95% CI = 3762–9279) gazelle inhabited the 11,027 km2 study area at the time of our survey and found that the methodology developed was robust at absorbing the logistical challenges and wide range of observer abilities. This initiative serves as a functional model for estimating terrestrial wildlife abundance while integrating local people into scientific and conservation projects. This, in turn, creates vested interest in conservation by the people who are most influential in, and most affected by, the outcomes.

Waste rice for waterfowl in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stafford, J.D.; Kaminski, R.M.; Reinecke, K.J.; Manley, S.W.

2006-01-01

Flooded rice fields are important foraging habitats for waterfowl in the lower Mississippi Alluvial Valley (MAV). Waste rice previously was abundant in late autumn (140?492 kg/ha), but early planting and harvest dates in recent years may have increased losses of waste rice during autumn before waterfowl arrive. Research in Mississippi rice fields revealed waste-rice abundance decreased 79?99% during autumns 1995?1996. To determine if this trend existed throughout the MAV, we used multistage sampling (MSS) to estimate waste-rice abundance during September?December 2000?2002. Averaged over years, mean abundance of waste rice decreased 71% between harvest ((x) over bar = 271.0 kg/ha, CV = 13% n = 3 years) and late autumn ( (x) over bar = 78.4 kg/ha, CV = 15% n = 3). Among 15 models formulated to explain variation in rice abundance among fields and across years, the best model indicated abundance of waste rice in late autumn differed between harvester types (i.e., conventional > stripper header) and was positively related to initial waste-rice abundance after harvest. Because abundance of waste rice in late autumn was less than previous estimates in all 3 years, we concluded that waterfowl conservationists have overestimated carrying capacity of rice fields for wintering waterfowl by 52?83% and recommend 325 duck-use days/ha (DUDs) as a revised estimate. We suggest monitoring advances in rice harvest dates to determine when new surveys are warranted and recommend increased management of moist-soil wetlands to compensate for decreased rice abundance.

Variation in abundance of Pacific Blue Mussel (Mytilus trossulus) in the Northern Gulf of Alaska, 2006-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bodkin, James L.; Coletti, Heather A.; Ballachey, Brenda E.; Monson, Daniel H.; Esler, Daniel; Dean, Thomas A.

2018-01-01

Mussels are conspicuous and ecologically important components of nearshore marine communities around the globe. Pacific blue mussels (Mytilus trossulus) are common residents of intertidal habitats in protected waters of the North Pacific, serving as a conduit of primary production to a wide range of nearshore consumers including predatory invertebrates, sea ducks, shorebirds, sea otters, humans, and other terrestrial mammals. We monitored seven metrics of intertidal Pacific blue mussel abundance at five sites in each of three regions across the northern Gulf of Alaska: Katmai National Park and Preserve (Katmai) (2006-2015), Kenai Fjords National Park (Kenai Fjords) (2008-2015) and western Prince William Sound (WPWS) (2007-2015). Metrics included estimates of: % cover at two tide heights in randomly selected rocky intertidal habitat; and in selected mussel beds estimates of: the density of large mussels (≥ 20 mm); density of all mussels > 2 mm estimated from cores extracted from those mussel beds; bed size; and total abundance of large and all mussels, i.e. the product of density and bed size. We evaluated whether these measures of mussel abundance differed among sites or regions, whether mussel abundance varied over time, and whether temporal patterns in abundance were site specific, or synchronous at regional or Gulf-wide spatial scales. We found that, for all metrics, mussel abundance varied on a site-by-site basis. After accounting for site differences, we found similar temporal patterns in several measures of abundance (both % cover metrics, large mussel density, large mussel abundance, and mussel abundance estimated from cores), in which abundance was initially high, declined significantly over several years, and subsequently recovered. Averaged across all sites, we documented declines of 84% in large mussel abundance through 2013 with recovery to 41% of initial abundance by 2015. These findings suggest that factors operating across the northern Gulf of Alaska were affecting mussel survival and subsequently abundance. In contrast, density of primarily small mussels obtained from cores (as an index of recruitment), varied markedly by site, but did not show meaningful temporal trends. We interpret this to indicate that settlement was driven by site-specific features rather than Gulf wide factors. By extension, we hypothesize that temporal changes in mussel abundance observed was not a result of temporal variation in larval supply leading to variation in recruitment, but rather suggestive of mortality as a primary demographic factor driving mussel abundance. Our results highlight the need to better understand underlying mechanisms of change in mussels, as well as implications of that change to nearshore consumers.

Variation in abundance of Pacific Blue Mussel (Mytilus trossulus) in the Northern Gulf of Alaska, 2006–2015

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bodkin, James L.; Coletti, Heather A.; Ballachey, Brenda E.; Monson, Daniel; Esler, Daniel N.; Dean, Thomas A.

2017-01-01

Mussels are conspicuous and ecologically important components of nearshore marine communities around the globe. Pacific blue mussels (Mytilus trossulus) are common residents of intertidal habitats in protected waters of the North Pacific, serving as a conduit of primary production to a wide range of nearshore consumers including predatory invertebrates, sea ducks, shorebirds, sea otters, humans, and other terrestrial mammals. We monitored seven metrics of intertidal Pacific blue mussel abundance at five sites in each of three regions across the northern Gulf of Alaska: Katmai National Park and Preserve (Katmai) (2006–2015), Kenai Fjords National Park (Kenai Fjords) (2008–2015) and western Prince William Sound (WPWS) (2007–2015). Metrics included estimates of: % cover at two tide heights in randomly selected rocky intertidal habitat; and in selected mussel beds estimates of: the density of large mussels (≥ 20 mm); density of all mussels > 2 mm estimated from cores extracted from those mussel beds; bed size; and total abundance of large and all mussels, i.e. the product of density and bed size. We evaluated whether these measures of mussel abundance differed among sites or regions, whether mussel abundance varied over time, and whether temporal patterns in abundance were site specific, or synchronous at regional or Gulf-wide spatial scales. We found that, for all metrics, mussel abundance varied on a site-by-site basis. After accounting for site differences, we found similar temporal patterns in several measures of abundance (both % cover metrics, large mussel density, large mussel abundance, and mussel abundance estimated from cores), in which abundance was initially high, declined significantly over several years, and subsequently recovered. Averaged across all sites, we documented declines of 84% in large mussel abundance through 2013 with recovery to 41% of initial abundance by 2015. These findings suggest that factors operating across the northern Gulf of Alaska were affecting mussel survival and subsequently abundance. In contrast, density of primarily small mussels obtained from cores (as an index of recruitment), varied markedly by site, but did not show meaningful temporal trends. We interpret this to indicate that settlement was driven by site-specific features rather than Gulf wide factors. By extension, we hypothesize that temporal changes in mussel abundance observed was not a result of temporal variation in larval supply leading to variation in recruitment, but rather suggestive of mortality as a primary demographic factor driving mussel abundance. Our results highlight the need to better understand underlying mechanisms of change in mussels, as well as implications of that change to nearshore consumers.

Use of Atlantic Forest protected areas by free-ranging dogs: estimating abundance and persistence of use

USGS Publications Warehouse

Paschoal, Ana Maria; Massara, Rodrigo; Bailey, Larissa L.; Kendall, William L.; Doherty, Paul F.; Hirsch, Andre; Chiarello, Adriano; Paglia, Adriano

2016-01-01

Worldwide, domestic dogs (Canis familiaris) are one of the most common carnivoran species in natural areas and their populations are still increasing. Dogs have been shown to impact wildlife populations negatively, and their occurrence can alter the abundance, behavior, and activity patterns of native species. However, little is known about abundance and density of the free-ranging dogs that use protected areas. Here, we used camera trap data with an open-robust design mark–recapture model to estimate the number of dogs that used protected areas in Brazilian Atlantic Forest. We estimated the time period these dogs used the protected areas, and explored factors that influenced the probability of continued use (e.g., season, mammal richness, proportion of forest), while accounting for variation in detection probability. Dogs in the studied system were categorized as rural free-ranging, and their abundance varied widely across protected areas (0–73 individuals). Dogs used protected areas near human houses for longer periods (e.g., >50% of sampling occasions) compared to more distant areas. We found no evidence that their probability of continued use varied with season or mammal richness. Dog detection probability decreased linearly among occasions, possibly due to the owners confining their dogs after becoming aware of our presence. Comparing our estimates to those for native carnivoran, we found that dogs were three to 85 times more abundant than ocelots (Leopardus pardalis), two to 25 times more abundant than puma (Puma concolor), and approximately five times more abundant than the crab-eating fox (Cerdocyon thous). Combining camera trapping data with modern mark–recapture methods provides important demographic information on free-ranging dogs that can guide management strategies to directly control dogs' abundance and ranging behavior.

Mark-recapture and mark-resight methods for estimating abundance with remote cameras: a carnivore case study

USGS Publications Warehouse

Alanso, Robert S.; McClintock, Brett T.; Lyren, Lisa M.; Boydston, Erin E.; Crooks, Kevin R.

2015-01-01

Abundance estimation of carnivore populations is difficult and has prompted the use of non-invasive detection methods, such as remotely-triggered cameras, to collect data. To analyze photo data, studies focusing on carnivores with unique pelage patterns have utilized a mark-recapture framework and studies of carnivores without unique pelage patterns have used a mark-resight framework. We compared mark-resight and mark-recapture estimation methods to estimate bobcat (Lynx rufus) population sizes, which motivated the development of a new "hybrid" mark-resight model as an alternative to traditional methods. We deployed a sampling grid of 30 cameras throughout the urban southern California study area. Additionally, we physically captured and marked a subset of the bobcat population with GPS telemetry collars. Since we could identify individual bobcats with photos of unique pelage patterns and a subset of the population was physically marked, we were able to use traditional mark-recapture and mark-resight methods, as well as the new “hybrid” mark-resight model we developed to estimate bobcat abundance. We recorded 109 bobcat photos during 4,669 camera nights and physically marked 27 bobcats with GPS telemetry collars. Abundance estimates produced by the traditional mark-recapture, traditional mark-resight, and “hybrid” mark-resight methods were similar, however precision differed depending on the models used. Traditional mark-recapture and mark-resight estimates were relatively imprecise with percent confidence interval lengths exceeding 100% of point estimates. Hybrid mark-resight models produced better precision with percent confidence intervals not exceeding 57%. The increased precision of the hybrid mark-resight method stems from utilizing the complete encounter histories of physically marked individuals (including those never detected by a camera trap) and the encounter histories of naturally marked individuals detected at camera traps. This new estimator may be particularly useful for estimating abundance of uniquely identifiable species that are difficult to sample using camera traps alone.

Spatial distribution, sampling precision and survey design optimisation with non-normal variables: The case of anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) recruitment in Spanish Mediterranean waters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tugores, M. Pilar; Iglesias, Magdalena; Oñate, Dolores; Miquel, Joan

2016-02-01

In the Mediterranean Sea, the European anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) displays a key role in ecological and economical terms. Ensuring stock sustainability requires the provision of crucial information, such as species spatial distribution or unbiased abundance and precision estimates, so that management strategies can be defined (e.g. fishing quotas, temporal closure areas or marine protected areas MPA). Furthermore, the estimation of the precision of global abundance at different sampling intensities can be used for survey design optimisation. Geostatistics provide a priori unbiased estimations of the spatial structure, global abundance and precision for autocorrelated data. However, their application to non-Gaussian data introduces difficulties in the analysis in conjunction with low robustness or unbiasedness. The present study applied intrinsic geostatistics in two dimensions in order to (i) analyse the spatial distribution of anchovy in Spanish Western Mediterranean waters during the species' recruitment season, (ii) produce distribution maps, (iii) estimate global abundance and its precision, (iv) analyse the effect of changing the sampling intensity on the precision of global abundance estimates and, (v) evaluate the effects of several methodological options on the robustness of all the analysed parameters. The results suggested that while the spatial structure was usually non-robust to the tested methodological options when working with the original dataset, it became more robust for the transformed datasets (especially for the log-backtransformed dataset). The global abundance was always highly robust and the global precision was highly or moderately robust to most of the methodological options, except for data transformation.

Repeated count surveys help standardize multi-agency estimates of American Oystercatcher (Haematopus palliatus) abundance

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hostetter, Nathan J.; Gardner, Beth; Schweitzer, Sara H.; Boettcher, Ruth; Wilke, Alexandra L.; Addison, Lindsay; Swilling, William R.; Pollock, Kenneth H.; Simons, Theodore R.

2015-01-01

The extensive breeding range of many shorebird species can make integration of survey data problematic at regional spatial scales. We evaluated the effectiveness of standardized repeated count surveys coordinated across 8 agencies to estimate the abundance of American Oystercatcher (Haematopus palliatus) breeding pairs in the southeastern United States. Breeding season surveys were conducted across coastal North Carolina (90 plots) and the Eastern Shore of Virginia (3 plots). Plots were visited on 1–5 occasions during April–June 2013. N-mixture models were used to estimate abundance and detection probability in relation to survey date, tide stage, plot size, and plot location (coastal bay vs. barrier island). The estimated abundance of oystercatchers in the surveyed area was 1,048 individuals (95% credible interval: 851–1,408) and 470 pairs (384–637), substantially higher than estimates that did not account for detection probability (maximum counts of 674 individuals and 316 pairs). Detection probability was influenced by a quadratic function of survey date, and increased from mid-April (~0.60) to mid-May (~0.80), then remained relatively constant through June. Detection probability was also higher during high tide than during low, rising, or falling tides. Abundance estimates from N-mixture models were validated at 13 plots by exhaustive productivity studies (2–5 surveys wk−1). Intensive productivity studies identified 78 breeding pairs across 13 productivity plots while the N-mixture model abundance estimate was 74 pairs (62–119) using only 1–5 replicated surveys season−1. Our results indicate that standardized replicated count surveys coordinated across multiple agencies and conducted during a relatively short time window (closure assumption) provide tremendous potential to meet both agency-level (e.g., state) and regional-level (e.g., flyway) objectives in large-scale shorebird monitoring programs.

Genomic Repeat Abundances Contain Phylogenetic Signal

PubMed Central

Dodsworth, Steven; Chase, Mark W.; Kelly, Laura J.; Leitch, Ilia J.; Macas, Jiří; Novák, Petr; Piednoël, Mathieu; Weiss-Schneeweiss, Hanna; Leitch, Andrew R.

2015-01-01

A large proportion of genomic information, particularly repetitive elements, is usually ignored when researchers are using next-generation sequencing. Here we demonstrate the usefulness of this repetitive fraction in phylogenetic analyses, utilizing comparative graph-based clustering of next-generation sequence reads, which results in abundance estimates of different classes of genomic repeats. Phylogenetic trees are then inferred based on the genome-wide abundance of different repeat types treated as continuously varying characters; such repeats are scattered across chromosomes and in angiosperms can constitute a majority of nuclear genomic DNA. In six diverse examples, five angiosperms and one insect, this method provides generally well-supported relationships at interspecific and intergeneric levels that agree with results from more standard phylogenetic analyses of commonly used markers. We propose that this methodology may prove especially useful in groups where there is little genetic differentiation in standard phylogenetic markers. At the same time as providing data for phylogenetic inference, this method additionally yields a wealth of data for comparative studies of genome evolution. PMID:25261464

Morphological characterization of coral reefs by combining lidar and MBES data: A case study from Yuanzhi Island, South China Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Kai; Yang, Fanlin; Zhang, Hande; Su, Dianpeng; Li, QianQian

2017-06-01

The correlation between seafloor morphological features and biological complexity has been identified in numerous recent studies. This research focused on the potential for accurate characterization of coral reefs based on high-resolution bathymetry from multiple sources. A standard deviation (STD) based method for quantitatively characterizing terrain complexity was developed that includes robust estimation to correct for irregular bathymetry and a calibration for the depth-dependent variablity of measurement noise. Airborne lidar and shipborne sonar bathymetry measurements from Yuanzhi Island, South China Sea, were merged to generate seamless high-resolution coverage of coral bathymetry from the shoreline to deep water. The new algorithm was applied to the Yuanzhi Island surveys to generate maps of quantitive terrain complexity, which were then compared to in situ video observations of coral abundance. The terrain complexity parameter is significantly correlated with seafloor coral abundance, demonstrating the potential for accurately and efficiently mapping coral abundance through seafloor surveys, including combinations of surveys using different sensors.

Effect of condensed tannins on bovine rumen protist diversity based on 18S rRNA gene sequences.

PubMed

Tan, Hui Yin; Sieo, Chin Chin; Abdullah, Norhani; Liang, Juan Boo; Huang, Xiao Dan; Ho, Yin Wan

2013-01-01

Molecular diversity of protists from bovine rumen fluid incubated with condensed tannins of Leucaena leucocephala hybrid-Rendang at 20 mg/500 mg dry matter (treatment) or without condensed tannins (control) was investigated using 18S rRNA gene library. Clones from the control library were distributed within nine genera, but clones from the condensed tannin treatment clone library were related to only six genera. Diversity estimators such as abundance-based coverage estimation and Chao1 showed significant differences between the two libraries, although no differences were found based on Shannon-Weaver index and Libshuff. © 2012 The Author(s) Journal of Eukaryotic Microbiology © 2012 International Society of Protistologists.

Evaluation of terrestrial and streamside salamander monitoring techniques at Shenandoah National Park

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jung, R.E.; Droege, S.; Sauer, J.R.; Landy, R.B.

2000-01-01

In response to concerns about amphibian declines, a study evaluating and validating amphibian monitoring techniques was initiated in Shenandoah and Big Bend National Parks in the spring of 1998. We evaluate precision, bias, and efficiency of several sampling methods for terrestrial and streamside salamanders in Shenandoah National Park and assess salamander abundance in relation to environmental variables, notably soil and water pH. Terrestrial salamanders, primarily redback salamanders (Plethodon cinereus), were sampled by searching under cover objects during the day in square plots (10 to 35 m2). We compared population indices (mean daily and total counts) with adjusted population estimates from capture-recapture. Analyses suggested that the proportion of salamanders detected (p) during sampling varied among plots, necessitating the use of adjusted population estimates. However, adjusted population estimates were less precise than population indices, and may not be efficient in relating salamander populations to environmental variables. In future sampling, strategic use of capture-recapture to verify consistency of p's among sites may be a reasonable compromise between the possibility of bias in estimation of population size and deficiencies due to inefficiency associated with the estimation of p. The streamside two-lined salamander (Eurycea bislineata) was surveyed using four methods: leaf litter refugia bags, 1 m2 quadrats, 50 x 1 m visual encounter transects, and electric shocking. Comparison of survey methods at nine streams revealed congruent patterns of abundance among sites, suggesting that relative bias among the methods is similar, and that choice of survey method should be based on precision and logistical efficiency. Redback and two-lined salamander abundance were not significantly related to soil or water pH, respectively.

A Global Carbon Assimilation System using a modified EnKF assimilation method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, S.; Zheng, X.; Chen, Z.; Dan, B.; Chen, J. M.; Yi, X.; Wang, L.; Wu, G.

2014-10-01

A Global Carbon Assimilation System based on Ensemble Kalman filter (GCAS-EK) is developed for assimilating atmospheric CO2 abundance data into an ecosystem model to simultaneously estimate the surface carbon fluxes and atmospheric CO2 distribution. This assimilation approach is based on the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), but with several new developments, including using analysis states to iteratively estimate ensemble forecast errors, and a maximum likelihood estimation of the inflation factors of the forecast and observation errors. The proposed assimilation approach is tested in observing system simulation experiments and then used to estimate the terrestrial ecosystem carbon fluxes and atmospheric CO2 distributions from 2002 to 2008. The results showed that this assimilation approach can effectively reduce the biases and uncertainties of the carbon fluxes simulated by the ecosystem model.

Pressure shifts and abundance gradients in the atmosphere of the DAZ white dwarf GALEX J193156.8+011745

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vennes, S.; Kawka, A.; Németh, P.

2011-06-01

We present a detailed model atmosphere analysis of high-dispersion and high signal-to-noise ratio spectra of the heavily polluted DAZ white dwarf GALEX J1931+0117. The spectra obtained with the Very Large Telescope (VLT)-Kueyen/UV-Visual Echelle Spectrograph show several well-resolved Si II spectral lines enabling a study of pressure effects on line profiles. We observed large Stark shifts in silicon lines in agreement with theoretical predictions and laboratory measurements. Taking into account Stark shifts in the calculation of synthetic spectra, we reduced the scatter in individual line radial velocity measurements from ˜3 to ≲1 km s-1. We present revised abundances of O, Mg, Si, Ca and Fe based on a critical review of line-broadening parameters and oscillator strengths. The new measurements are generally in agreement with our previous analysis with the exception of magnesium with a revised abundance of a factor of 2 lower than previously estimated. The magnesium, silicon and iron abundances exceed solar abundances, but the oxygen and calcium abundances are below solar. Also, we compared the observed line profiles to synthetic spectra computed with variable accretion rates and vertical abundance distributions assuming diffusive steady state. The inferred accretion rates vary from ? for calcium to 2 × 109 g s-1 for oxygen. We find that the accretion flow must be oxygen rich while being deficient in calcium relative to solar abundances. The lack of radial velocity variations between two measurement epochs suggests that GALEX J1931+0117 is probably not in a close binary and that the source of the accreted material resides in a debris disc. Based on observations made with European Southern Observatory (ESO) telescopes at the La Silla Paranal Observatory under programme 283.D-5060.

A sampling design and model for estimating abundance of Nile crocodiles while accounting for heterogeneity of detectability of multiple observers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shirley, Matthew H.; Dorazio, Robert M.; Abassery, Ekramy; Elhady, Amr A.; Mekki, Mohammed S.; Asran, Hosni H.

2012-01-01

As part of the development of a management program for Nile crocodiles in Lake Nasser, Egypt, we used a dependent double-observer sampling protocol with multiple observers to compute estimates of population size. To analyze the data, we developed a hierarchical model that allowed us to assess variation in detection probabilities among observers and survey dates, as well as account for variation in crocodile abundance among sites and habitats. We conducted surveys from July 2008-June 2009 in 15 areas of Lake Nasser that were representative of 3 main habitat categories. During these surveys, we sampled 1,086 km of lake shore wherein we detected 386 crocodiles. Analysis of the data revealed significant variability in both inter- and intra-observer detection probabilities. Our raw encounter rate was 0.355 crocodiles/km. When we accounted for observer effects and habitat, we estimated a surface population abundance of 2,581 (2,239-2,987, 95% credible intervals) crocodiles in Lake Nasser. Our results underscore the importance of well-trained, experienced monitoring personnel in order to decrease heterogeneity in intra-observer detection probability and to better detect changes in the population based on survey indices. This study will assist the Egyptian government establish a monitoring program as an integral part of future crocodile harvest activities in Lake Nasser

Estimating abundance of mountain lions from unstructured spatial sampling

Treesearch

Robin E. Russell; J. Andrew Royle; Richard Desimone; Michael K. Schwartz; Victoria L. Edwards; Kristy P. Pilgrim; Kevin S. McKelvey

2012-01-01

Mountain lions (Puma concolor) are often difficult to monitor because of their low capture probabilities, extensive movements, and large territories. Methods for estimating the abundance of this species are needed to assess population status, determine harvest levels, evaluate the impacts of management actions on populations, and derive conservation and management...

ICPD-a new peak detection algorithm for LC/MS.

PubMed

Zhang, Jianqiu; Haskins, William

2010-12-01

The identification and quantification of proteins using label-free Liquid Chromatography/Mass Spectrometry (LC/MS) play crucial roles in biological and biomedical research. Increasing evidence has shown that biomarkers are often low abundance proteins. However, LC/MS systems are subject to considerable noise and sample variability, whose statistical characteristics are still elusive, making computational identification of low abundance proteins extremely challenging. As a result, the inability of identifying low abundance proteins in a proteomic study is the main bottleneck in protein biomarker discovery. In this paper, we propose a new peak detection method called Information Combining Peak Detection (ICPD ) for high resolution LC/MS. In LC/MS, peptides elute during a certain time period and as a result, peptide isotope patterns are registered in multiple MS scans. The key feature of the new algorithm is that the observed isotope patterns registered in multiple scans are combined together for estimating the likelihood of the peptide existence. An isotope pattern matching score based on the likelihood probability is provided and utilized for peak detection. The performance of the new algorithm is evaluated based on protein standards with 48 known proteins. The evaluation shows better peak detection accuracy for low abundance proteins than other LC/MS peak detection methods.

p-capture reaction cycles in rotating massive stars and their impact on elemental abundances in globular cluster stars: A case study of O, Na and Al

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahanta, Upakul; Goswami, Aruna; Duorah, Hiralal; Duorah, Kalpana

2017-08-01

Elemental abundance patterns of globular cluster stars can provide important clues for understanding cluster formation and early chemical evolution. The origin of the abundance patterns, however, still remains poorly understood. We have studied the impact of p-capture reaction cycles on the abundances of oxygen, sodium and aluminium considering nuclear reaction cycles of carbon-nitrogen-oxygen-fluorine, neon-sodium and magnesium-aluminium in massive stars in stellar conditions of temperature range 2×107 to 10×107 K and typical density of 102 gm cc-1. We have estimated abundances of oxygen, sodium and aluminium with respect to Fe, which are then assumed to be ejected from those stars because of rotation reaching a critical limit. These ejected abundances of elements are then compared with their counterparts that have been observed in some metal-poor evolved stars, mainly giants and red giants, of globular clusters M3, M4, M13 and NGC 6752. We observe an excellent agreement with [O/Fe] between the estimated and observed abundance values for globular clusters M3 and M4 with a correlation coefficient above 0.9 and a strong linear correlation for the remaining two clusters with a correlation coefficient above 0.7. The estimated [Na/Fe] is found to have a correlation coefficient above 0.7, thus implying a strong correlation for all four globular clusters. As far as [Al/Fe] is concerned, it also shows a strong correlation between the estimated abundance and the observed abundance for globular clusters M13 and NGC 6752, since here also the correlation coefficient is above 0.7 whereas for globular cluster M4 there is a moderate correlation found with a correlation coefficient above 0.6. Possible sources of these discrepancies are discussed.

Detecting population recovery using gametic disequilibrium-based effective population size estimates

Treesearch

David A. Tallmon; Robin S. Waples; Dave Gregovich; Michael K. Schwartz

2012-01-01

Recovering populations often must meet specific growth rate or abundance targets before their legal status can be changed from endangered or threatened. While the efficacy, power, and performance of population metrics to infer trends in declining populations has received considerable attention, how these same metrics perform when populations are increasing is less...

Movement and capture efficiency of radio-tagged salmonids sampled by electrofishing

Treesearch

Michael K. Young; David A. Schmetterling

2012-01-01

Electrofishing-based estimates of fish abundance are common. Most population models assume that samples are drawn froma closed population, but population closure is sometimes difficult to achieve. Consequently, we individually electrofished 103 radio-tagged trout of two species, westslope cutthroat trout Oncorhynchus clarkii lewisi and brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis...

Botanical reconnaissance of meeks table Research Natural Area, Washington.

Treesearch

Reid Schuller; Shelley. Evans

1986-01-01

A floristic survey of Meeks Table Research Natural Area in the Wenatchee National Forest, Washington, documents 159 vascular plant taxa representing 39 families. This paper provides estimates of abundance by plant community or by other habitat characteristics for all taxa listed. Plant communities are described and mapped based on current vegetation.

rSPACE: Spatially based power analysis for conservation and ecology

Treesearch

Martha M. Ellis; Jacob S. Ivan; Jody M. Tucker; Michael K. Schwartz

2015-01-01

1.) Power analysis is an important step in designing effective monitoring programs to detect trends in plant or animal populations. Although project goals often focus on detecting changes in population abundance, logistical constraints may require data collection on population indices, such as detection/non-detection data for occupancy estimation. 2.) We describe the...

Proteomic Analysis of the Marine Cyanobacterium Synechococcus WH8102 and Implications for Estimates of the Cellular Iron Content

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saito, M. A.; Bertrand, E. M.; Bulygin, V.; Moran, D.; Waterbury, J. B.

2008-12-01

The proteome of the marine cyanobacterium Synechococcus WH8102 was analyzed by nanospray liquid chromatography mass spectrometry (nLC-MS) with two major goals: to provide a first examination of the relative abundance of the most abundant proteins in this important microbe and to provide the necessary mass spectra for future quantification of biogeochemically significant proteins. Analyses of 37 nLC-MS runs of whole cell tryptic digestions and SDS-PAGE gel separated tryptic digestions resulted in a total of 636 proteins identified, 376 identified with two or more tryptic peptides. The identifications used the Sequest algorithm with stringent data filters on 54003 observed peptides, 3066 of which were unique, with a false positive rate of 2.2%. These measured proteins represent ~ 25.2% (14.8% with >= 2 peptides) of the open reading frames (ORFs) in the genome, similar to or higher than the percentage found in other cyanobacterial proteome studies thus far. The relative abundance of the more abundant proteins in the proteome was examined using the exponentially modified protein abundance index from a single nLC-MS run that identified 372 proteins (14.7% of the ORFs) from 7743 observed peptides (1224 unique peptides). Estimates of the relative abundance showed the photosynthesis and respiration category contributing approximately 32% of the total detected protein, hypothetical proteins contributing about 16%, and translation about 12%. Of biogeochemical interest, multiple types of nitrogen assimilation systems were observed to be simultaneously expressed as proteins, only 5 of the 21 B12 biosynthesis proteins were identified likely due to low abundance, and the metalloproteins metallothionein and nickel superoxide dismutase were relatively abundant. In contrast to previous predictions of a high photosystem I: photosystem II ratio of approximately 3 in the cyanobacteria and a resultant high cellular iron content, the ratio of the average relative abundances of all detected proteins in each photosystem was only 1.2, and the median was only 0.72 based on the median. These results contradict the earlier predication of a biochemical basis for a high cellular iron in Synechococcus and may extend to the marine cyanobacteria in general.

Exploring the 13CO/C18O abundance ratio towards Galactic young stellar objects and HII regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Areal, M. B.; Paron, S.; Celis Peña, M.; Ortega, M. E.

2018-05-01

Aims: Determining molecular abundance ratios is important not only for the study of Galactic chemistry, but also because they are useful to estimate physical parameters in a large variety of interstellar medium environments. One of the most important molecules for tracing the molecular gas in the interstellar medium is CO, and the 13CO/C18O abundance ratio is usually used to estimate molecular masses and densities of regions with moderate to high densities. Nowadays isotope ratios are in general indirectly derived from elemental abundances ratios. We present the first 13CO/C18O abundance ratio study performed from CO isotope observations towards a large sample of Galactic sources of different natures at different locations. Methods: To study the 13CO/C18O abundance ratio, we used 12CO J = 3 - 2 data obtained from the CO High-Resolution Survey, 13CO and C18O J = 3 - 2 data from the 13CO/C18O (J = 3 - 2) Heterodyne Inner Milky Way Plane Survey, and some complementary data extracted from the James Clerk Maxwell Telescope database. We analyzed a sample of 198 sources composed of young stellar objects (YSOs), and HII and diffuse HII regions as catalogued in the Red MSX Source Survey in 27.°5 ≤ l ≤ 46.°5 and |b|0.°5. Results: Most of the analyzed sources are located in the galactocentric distance range 4.0-6.5 kpc. We found that YSOs have, on average, lower 13CO/C18O abundance ratios than HII and diffuse HII regions. Taking into account that the gas associated with YSOs should be less affected by the radiation than in the case of the others sources, selective far-UV photodissociation of C18O is confirmed. The 13CO/C18O abundance ratios obtained in this work are systematically lower than those predicted from the known elemental abundance relations. These results will be useful in future studies of molecular gas related to YSOs and HII regions based on the observation of these isotopes.

Estimating disperser abundance using open population models that incorporate data from continuous detection PIT arrays

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dzul, Maria C.; Yackulic, Charles B.; Korman, Josh

2017-01-01

Autonomous passive integrated transponder (PIT) tag antenna systems continuously detect individually marked organisms at one or more fixed points over long time periods. Estimating abundance using data from autonomous antennae can be challenging, because these systems do not detect unmarked individuals. Here we pair PIT antennae data from a tributary with mark-recapture sampling data in a mainstem river to estimate the number of fish moving from the mainstem to the tributary. We then use our model to estimate abundance of non-native rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss that move from the Colorado River to the Little Colorado River (LCR), the latter of which is important spawning and rearing habitat for federally-endangered humpback chub Gila cypha. We estimate 226 rainbow trout (95% CI: 127-370) entered the LCR from October 2013-April 2014. We discuss the challenges of incorporating detections from autonomous PIT antenna systems into mark-recapture population models, particularly in regards to using information about spatial location to estimate movement and detection probabilities.

Density and abundance of Wilson's snipe Gallinago delicata in winter in the Lower Mississippi Flyway, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carroll, James M.; Krementz, David G.

2014-01-01

Wilson's snipe Gallinago delicata is one of the least studied North American game birds, and information on snipe populations and abundance is mostly unknown. We conducted roadside surveys stratified at the township level in the lower Mississippi Alluvial Valley (LMAV) in Arkansas, Mississippi and Louisiana, as well as the Red River Region, and the Gulf Coastal Plain of Louisiana during winters of 2009 and 2010. We identified observer, vegetation cover, and water cover as important covariates in estimating snipe densities. We detected 2915 snipe along 814 line transects (1450 km) for 2009 and 2010 combined. We estimated snipe densities of 8.05 individuals km-2 (95% CI: 4.57-14.17) in 2009, and 2.13 individuals km-2 (95% CI: 1.47-3.08) in 2010. We used the resulting snipe density estimates within the study area to calculate abundance estimates of 1 026 431 (95% CI: 582 707-1 806 774) in 2009, and 271 590 (95% CI: 187 435-392 722) in 2010 for the LMAV. Our data indicate that a road transect survey method is effective for estimating wintering snipe density and abundance in the lower Mississippi Flyway.

A new device to estimate abundance of moist-soil plant seeds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Penny, E.J.; Kaminski, R.M.; Reinecke, K.J.

2006-01-01

Methods to sample the abundance of moist-soil seeds efficiently and accurately are critical for evaluating management practices and determining food availability. We adapted a portable, gasoline-powered vacuum to estimate abundance of seeds on the surface of a moist-soil wetland in east-central Mississippi and evaluated the sampler by simulating conditions that researchers and managers may experience when sampling moist-soil areas for seeds. We measured the percent recovery of known masses of seeds by the vacuum sampler in relation to 4 experimentally controlled factors (i.e., seed-size class, sample mass, soil moisture class, and vacuum time) with 2-4 levels per factor. We also measured processing time of samples in the laboratory. Across all experimental factors, seed recovery averaged 88.4% and varied little (CV = 0.68%, n = 474). Overall, mean time to process a sample was 30.3 ? 2.5 min (SE, n = 417). Our estimate of seed recovery rate (88%) may be used to adjust estimates for incomplete seed recovery, or project-specific correction factors may be developed by investigators. Our device was effective for estimating surface abundance of moist-soil plant seeds after dehiscence and before habitats were flooded.

Including independent estimates and uncertainty to quantify total abundance of fish migrating in a large river system: walleye (Sander vitreus) in the Maumee River, Ohio

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pritt, Jeremy J.; DuFour, Mark R.; Mayer, Christine M.; Kocovsky, Patrick M.; Tyson, Jeffrey T.; Weimer, Eric J.; Vandergoot, Christopher S.

2013-01-01

Walleye (Sander vitreus) in Lake Erie is a valuable and migratory species that spawns in tributaries. We used hydroacoustic sampling, gill net sampling, and Bayesian state-space modeling to estimate the spawning stock abundance, characterize size and sex structure, and explore environmental factors cuing migration of walleye in the Maumee River for 2011 and 2012. We estimated the spawning stock abundance to be between 431,000 and 1,446,000 individuals in 2011 and between 386,400 and 857,200 individuals in 2012 (95% Bayesian credible intervals). A back-calculation from a concurrent larval fish study produced an estimate of 78,000 to 237,000 spawners for 2011. The sex ratio was skewed towards males early in the spawning season but approached 1:1 later, and larger individuals entered the river earlier in the season than smaller individuals. Walleye migration was greater during low river discharge and intermediate temperatures. Our approach to estimating absolute abundance and uncertainty as well as characterization of the spawning stock could improve assessment and management of this species, and our methodology is applicable to other diadromous populations.

An open-population hierarchical distance sampling model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sollmann, Rachel; Beth Gardner,; Richard B Chandler,; Royle, J. Andrew; T Scott Sillett,

2015-01-01

Modeling population dynamics while accounting for imperfect detection is essential to monitoring programs. Distance sampling allows estimating population size while accounting for imperfect detection, but existing methods do not allow for direct estimation of demographic parameters. We develop a model that uses temporal correlation in abundance arising from underlying population dynamics to estimate demographic parameters from repeated distance sampling surveys. Using a simulation study motivated by designing a monitoring program for island scrub-jays (Aphelocoma insularis), we investigated the power of this model to detect population trends. We generated temporally autocorrelated abundance and distance sampling data over six surveys, using population rates of change of 0.95 and 0.90. We fit the data generating Markovian model and a mis-specified model with a log-linear time effect on abundance, and derived post hoc trend estimates from a model estimating abundance for each survey separately. We performed these analyses for varying number of survey points. Power to detect population changes was consistently greater under the Markov model than under the alternatives, particularly for reduced numbers of survey points. The model can readily be extended to more complex demographic processes than considered in our simulations. This novel framework can be widely adopted for wildlife population monitoring.

An open-population hierarchical distance sampling model.

PubMed

Sollmann, Rahel; Gardner, Beth; Chandler, Richard B; Royle, J Andrew; Sillett, T Scott

2015-02-01

Modeling population dynamics while accounting for imperfect detection is essential to monitoring programs. Distance sampling allows estimating population size while accounting for imperfect detection, but existing methods do not allow for estimation of demographic parameters. We develop a model that uses temporal correlation in abundance arising from underlying population dynamics to estimate demographic parameters from repeated distance sampling surveys. Using a simulation study motivated by designing a monitoring program for Island Scrub-Jays (Aphelocoma insularis), we investigated the power of this model to detect population trends. We generated temporally autocorrelated abundance and distance sampling data over six surveys, using population rates of change of 0.95 and 0.90. We fit the data generating Markovian model and a mis-specified model with a log-linear time effect on abundance, and derived post hoc trend estimates from a model estimating abundance for each survey separately. We performed these analyses for varying numbers of survey points. Power to detect population changes was consistently greater under the Markov model than under the alternatives, particularly for reduced numbers of survey points. The model can readily be extended to more complex demographic processes than considered in our simulations. This novel framework can be widely adopted for wildlife population monitoring.

Applying citizen-science data and mark-recapture models to estimate numbers of migrant golden eagles in an important bird area in eastern North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dennhardt, Andrew J.; Duerr, Adam E.; Brandes, David; Katzner, Todd

2017-01-01

Estimates of population abundance are important to wildlife management and conservation. However, it can be difficult to characterize the numbers of broadly distributed, low-density, and elusive bird species. Although Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) are rare, difficult to detect, and broadly distributed, they are concentrated during their autumn migration at monitoring sites in eastern North America. We used hawk-count data collected by citizen scientists in a virtual mark–recapture modeling analysis to estimate the numbers of Golden Eagles that migrate in autumn along Kittatinny Ridge, an Important Bird Area in Pennsylvania, USA. In order to evaluate the sensitivity of our abundance estimates to variation in eagle capture histories, we applied candidate models to 8 different sets of capture histories, constructed with or without age-class information and using known mean flight speeds 6 1, 2, 4, or 6 SE for eagles to travel between hawk-count sites. Although some abundance estimates were produced by models that poorly fitted the data (ĉ > 3.0), 2 sets of population estimates were produced by acceptably performing models (cˆ less than or equal to 3.0). Application of these models to count data from November, 2002–2011, suggested a mean population abundance of 1,354 6 117 SE (range: 873–1,938). We found that Golden Eagles left the ridgeline at different rates and in different places along the route, and that typically ,50% of individuals were detected at the hawk-count sites. Our study demonstrates a useful technique for estimating population abundance that may be applicable to other migrant species that are repeatedly detected at multiple monitoring sites along a topographic diversion or leading line.

A uniform contribution of core-collapse and type Ia supernovae to the chemical enrichment pattern in the outskirts of the Virgo Cluster

DOE PAGES

Simionescu, A.; Werner, N.; Urban, O.; ...

2015-09-24

We present the first measurements of the abundances of α-elements (Mg, Si, and S) extending out beyond the virial radius of a cluster of galaxies. Our results, based on Suzaku Key Project observations of the Virgo Cluster, show that the chemical composition of the intracluster medium is consistent with being constant on large scales, with a flat distribution of the Si/Fe, S/Fe, and Mg/Fe ratios as a function of radius and azimuth out to 1.4 Mpc (1.3 r 200). Chemical enrichment of the intergalactic medium due solely to core-collapse supernovae (SNcc) is excluded with very high significance; instead, the measuredmore » metal abundance ratios are generally consistent with the solar value. The uniform metal abundance ratios observed today are likely the result of an early phase of enrichment and mixing, with both SNcc and SNe Ia contributing to the metal budget during the period of peak star formation activity at redshifts of 2–3. Furthermore, we estimate the ratio between the number of SNe Ia and the total number of supernovae enriching the intergalactic medium to be between 12% and 37%, broadly consistent with the metal abundance patterns in our own Galaxy or with the SN Ia contribution estimated for the cluster cores.« less

ELM: AN ALGORITHM TO ESTIMATE THE ALPHA ABUNDANCE FROM LOW-RESOLUTION SPECTRA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bu, Yude; Zhao, Gang; Kumar, Yerra Bharat

We have investigated a novel methodology using the extreme learning machine (ELM) algorithm to determine the α abundance of stars. Applying two methods based on the ELM algorithm—ELM+spectra and ELM+Lick indices—to the stellar spectra from the ELODIE database, we measured the α abundance with a precision better than 0.065 dex. By applying these two methods to the spectra with different signal-to-noise ratios (S/Ns) and different resolutions, we found that ELM+spectra is more robust against degraded resolution and ELM+Lick indices is more robust against variation in S/N. To further validate the performance of ELM, we applied ELM+spectra and ELM+Lick indices to SDSSmore » spectra and estimated α abundances with a precision around 0.10 dex, which is comparable to the results given by the SEGUE Stellar Parameter Pipeline. We further applied ELM to the spectra of stars in Galactic globular clusters (M15, M13, M71) and open clusters (NGC 2420, M67, NGC 6791), and results show good agreement with previous studies (within 1σ). A comparison of the ELM with other widely used methods including support vector machine, Gaussian process regression, artificial neural networks, and linear least-squares regression shows that ELM is efficient with computational resources and more accurate than other methods.« less

A UNIFORM CONTRIBUTION OF CORE-COLLAPSE AND TYPE Ia SUPERNOVAE TO THE CHEMICAL ENRICHMENT PATTERN IN THE OUTSKIRTS OF THE VIRGO CLUSTER

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Simionescu, A.; Ichinohe, Y.; Werner, N.

2015-10-01

We present the first measurements of the abundances of α-elements (Mg, Si, and S) extending out beyond the virial radius of a cluster of galaxies. Our results, based on Suzaku Key Project observations of the Virgo Cluster, show that the chemical composition of the intracluster medium is consistent with being constant on large scales, with a flat distribution of the Si/Fe, S/Fe, and Mg/Fe ratios as a function of radius and azimuth out to 1.4 Mpc (1.3 r{sub 200}). Chemical enrichment of the intergalactic medium due solely to core-collapse supernovae (SNcc) is excluded with very high significance; instead, the measuredmore » metal abundance ratios are generally consistent with the solar value. The uniform metal abundance ratios observed today are likely the result of an early phase of enrichment and mixing, with both SNcc and SNe Ia contributing to the metal budget during the period of peak star formation activity at redshifts of 2–3. We estimate the ratio between the number of SNe Ia and the total number of supernovae enriching the intergalactic medium to be between 12% and 37%, broadly consistent with the metal abundance patterns in our own Galaxy or with the SN Ia contribution estimated for the cluster cores.« less

Density, abundance, survival, and ranging patterns of common bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) in Mississippi Sound following the Deepwater Horizon oil spill.

PubMed

Mullin, Keith D; McDonald, Trent; Wells, Randall S; Balmer, Brian C; Speakman, Todd; Sinclair, Carrie; Zolman, Eric S; Hornsby, Fawn; McBride, Shauna M; Wilkinson, Krystan A; Schwacke, Lori H

2017-01-01

After the Deepwater Horizon (DWH) oil spill began in April 2010, studies were initiated on northern Gulf of Mexico common bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) in Mississippi Sound (MSS) to determine density, abundance, and survival, during and after the oil spill, and to compare these results to previous research in this region. Seasonal boat-based photo-identification surveys (2010-2012) were conducted in a section of MSS to estimate dolphin density and survival, and satellite-linked telemetry (2013) was used to determine ranging patterns. Telemetry suggested two different ranging patterns in MSS: (1) inshore waters with seasonal movements into mid-MSS, and (2) around the barrier islands exclusively. Based upon these data, dolphin density was estimated in two strata (Inshore and Island) using a spatially-explicit robust-design capture-recapture model. Inshore and Island density varied between 0.77-1.61 dolphins km-2 ([Formula: see text] = 1.42, 95% CI: 1.28-1.53) and 3.32-5.74 dolphins km-2 ([Formula: see text] = 4.43, 95% CI: 2.70-5.63), respectively. The estimated annual survival rate for dolphins with distinctive fins was very low in the year following the spill, 0.73 (95% CI: 0.67-0.78), and consistent with the occurrence of a large scale cetacean unusual mortality event that was in part attributed to the DWH oil spill. Fluctuations in density were not as large or seasonally consistent as previously reported. Total abundance for MSS extrapolated from density results ranged from 4,610 in July 2011 to 3,046 in January 2012 ([Formula: see text] = 3,469, 95% CI: 3,113-3,725).

Density, abundance, survival, and ranging patterns of common bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) in Mississippi Sound following the Deepwater Horizon oil spill

PubMed Central

Mullin, Keith D.; Wells, Randall S.; Balmer, Brian C.; Speakman, Todd; Sinclair, Carrie; Zolman, Eric S.; Hornsby, Fawn; McBride, Shauna M.; Wilkinson, Krystan A.; Schwacke, Lori H.

2017-01-01

After the Deepwater Horizon (DWH) oil spill began in April 2010, studies were initiated on northern Gulf of Mexico common bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) in Mississippi Sound (MSS) to determine density, abundance, and survival, during and after the oil spill, and to compare these results to previous research in this region. Seasonal boat-based photo-identification surveys (2010–2012) were conducted in a section of MSS to estimate dolphin density and survival, and satellite-linked telemetry (2013) was used to determine ranging patterns. Telemetry suggested two different ranging patterns in MSS: (1) inshore waters with seasonal movements into mid-MSS, and (2) around the barrier islands exclusively. Based upon these data, dolphin density was estimated in two strata (Inshore and Island) using a spatially-explicit robust-design capture-recapture model. Inshore and Island density varied between 0.77–1.61 dolphins km−2 (x¯ = 1.42, 95% CI: 1.28–1.53) and 3.32–5.74 dolphins km−2 (x¯ = 4.43, 95% CI: 2.70–5.63), respectively. The estimated annual survival rate for dolphins with distinctive fins was very low in the year following the spill, 0.73 (95% CI: 0.67–0.78), and consistent with the occurrence of a large scale cetacean unusual mortality event that was in part attributed to the DWH oil spill. Fluctuations in density were not as large or seasonally consistent as previously reported. Total abundance for MSS extrapolated from density results ranged from 4,610 in July 2011 to 3,046 in January 2012 (x¯ = 3,469, 95% CI: 3,113–3,725). PMID:29053728

High-resolution mapping of elemental abundances of the lunar regolith

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wöhler, Christian; Berezhnoy, Alexey; Evans, Richard

Many attempts have been made to derive elemental abundances of the lunar surface from mul-tispectral images (cf. e.g. [1]). The gamma ray spectrometer on board the Lunar Prospector spacecraft (LP GRS) provided the first "direct" global measurements of lunar elemental abun-dances including Fe, Th (15 km surface resolution), Ti, K, Sm (60 km), Al, O, Si, Mg, Ca, and U (150 km). In this study we rely on the elemental abundance estimation method intro-duced in [2], which is based on spectral features derived from the Clementine UVVIS+NIR data set and estimates the abundances of Ca, Al, Fe, Mg, Ti, and O by applying a second order polynomial regression model with the corresponding LP GRS abundances as "ground truth". The regarded spectral features are the continuum slope, the FWHM of the ferrous absorption trough near 1000 nm after continuum division, and the absorption wavelengths and relative absorption depths (cf. [2,3] for details). A petrographic analysis is performed based on the abundances of the key elements Al, Fe, and Mg [4]. The relative abundances of the endmem-bers mare basalt, Mg-rich rock, and ferroan anorthosite are estimated using Fe-Mg and Al-Mg diagrams, where the endmember compositions are determined based on the three-endmember plane fitted in Al-Fe-Mg space to the elemental abundances at 150 km resolution obtained with the regression model. The root-mean-square deviation from the three-endmember plane is only 0.3 wt percent. Our petrographic map shows Mg-rich rocks in the Mare Frigoris region, on the edges of large maria, in the South Pole Aitken basin, and in some cryptomaria such as the Schiller-Schickard basin. The presence of Mg-rich rocks in Mare Frigoris explains the Fe and Ti depletion discussed in [5]. Furthermore, our analysis confirms that the basalts of eastern mare Frigoris have an atypically high Al content [6]. The region south of Lichtenberg and around Seleucus and Briggs in northwestern Oceanus Procellarum is characterised by comparably large deviations from the three-endmember plane in Al-Fe-Mg space of 1 wt percent and more. These anomalous basalts have low ages of 1.7-2.8 Ga [7]. They are characterised by secondary absorption features near 1100 nm and high 2000/1500 spectral ratios, indicating a high olivine content. Anomalous material in lunar craters is generally interpreted as being excavated during crater formation from the lower lunar crust or upper mantle (cf. e.g. [8]). For the highland crater Tycho, our method reveals mafic units in the northern crater wall and in the central peaks and Mg-rich rock in the southwestern crater wall and distributed throughout the crater floor. This material is interpreted in [9] as anorthositic gabbro with a low Fe content and a mafic mineral assemblage dominated by high-Ca pyroxene. Our petrographic map of Copernicus shows the central peaks as small regions composed of the mare basalt endmember (interpreted as gabbroic material) with admixed troctolite (western peak) and mainly troctolite (eastern peak), respectively [8]. For the central peaks of the crater Bullialdus, our technique clearly reveals the Mg-rich rock component, which is interpreted as norite in [10]. We present very high resolution petrographic maps derived from newly released Selene multi-spectral data of the central peaks of Copernicus and Bullialdus. For the pyroclastic deposits (LPDs) on the floor of Alphonsus, our technique indicates high Mg/Al ratios between 1.4 (eastern LPDs) and 2.5 (western LPD) [11]. The secondary absorption near 1100 nm and the high 2000/1500 ratio suggest the presence of a major olivine component. As a general result, we show that our regression-based elemental abundance estimation method allows the detection of the main lunar terrain classes and rock types on small spatial scales based on multispectral imagery in the visible and near-infrared domain. [1] Lucey et al. (2000), JGR 105(E8), 20297-20306. [2] Wühler et al. (2009), EPSC 2009, 263. [3] Evans et al. (2009) LPSC XXXX, 1093. [4] Berezhnoy et al. (2005), PSS 53, 1097-1108. [5] Taylor et al. (1996), LPSC XXVII, 1317-1318. [6] Kramer et al. (2009), LPSC XXXX, 2369. [7] Hiesinger et al. (2003), JGR 108(E7), 5065-5091. [8] Pieters and Tompkins (1999), LPSC XXX, 1286. [9] Lucey et al. (2002), LPSC XXXIII, 1056. [10] Tompkins et al. (1994), Icarus 110(2), 261-274. [11] Schonfeld and Bielefeld (1978), LPSC V, 3037-3048.

The densest terrestrial vertebrate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rodda, G.H.; Perry, G.; Rondeau, R.J.; Lazell, J.

2001-01-01

An understanding of the abundance of organisms is central to understanding ecology, but many population density estimates are unrepresentative because they were obtained from study areas chosen for the high abundance of the target species. For example, from a pool of 1072 lizard density estimates that we compiled from the literature, we sampled 303 estimates and scored each for its assessment of the degree to which the study site was representative. Less than half (45%) indicated that the study area was chosen to be representative of the population or habitat. An additional 15% reported that individual plots or transects were chosen randomly, but this often indicated only that the sample points were located randomly within a study area chosen for its high abundance of the target species. The remainder of the studies either gave no information or specified that the study area was chosen because the focal species was locally abundant.

Methyl-coenzyme M reductase A as an indicator to estimate methane production from dairy cows.

PubMed

Aguinaga Casañas, M A; Rangkasenee, N; Krattenmacher, N; Thaller, G; Metges, C C; Kuhla, B

2015-06-01

The evaluation of greenhouse gas mitigation strategies requires the quantitative assessment of individual methane production. Because methane measurement in respiration chambers is highly accurate, but also comprises various disadvantages such as limited capacity and high costs, the establishment of an indicator for estimating methane production of individual ruminants would provide an alternative to direct methane measurement. Methyl-coenzyme M reductase is involved in methanogenesis and the subunit α of methyl-coenzyme M reductase is encoded by the mcrA gene of rumen archaea. We therefore examined the relationship between methane emissions of Holstein dairy cows measured in respiration chambers with 2 different diets (high- and medium-concentrate diet) and the mcrA DNA and mcrA cDNA abundance determined from corresponding rumen fluid samples. Whole-body methane production per kilogram of dry matter intake and mcrA DNA normalized to the abundance of the rrs gene coding for 16S rRNA correlated significantly when using qmcrA primers. Use of qmcrA primers also revealed linear correlation between mcrA DNA copy number and methane yield. Regression analyses based on normalized mcrA cDNA abundances revealed no significant linear correlation with methane production per kilogram of dry matter intake. Furthermore, the correlations between normalized mcrA DNA abundance and the rumen fluid concentration of acetic and isobutyric acid were positive, whereas the correlations with propionic and lactic acid were negative. These data suggest that the mcrA DNA approach based on qmcrA primers could potentially be a molecular proxy for methane yield after further refinement. Copyright © 2015 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Foraging Ecology of Fall-Migrating Shorebirds in the Illinois River Valley

PubMed Central

Smith, Randolph V.; Stafford, Joshua D.; Yetter, Aaron P.; Horath, Michelle M.; Hine, Christopher S.; Hoover, Jeffery P.

2012-01-01

Populations of many shorebird species appear to be declining in North America, and food resources at stopover habitats may limit migratory bird populations. We investigated body condition of, and foraging habitat and diet selection by 4 species of shorebirds in the central Illinois River valley during fall migrations 2007 and 2008 (Killdeer [Charadrius vociferus], Least Sandpiper [Calidris minutilla], Pectoral Sandpiper [Calidris melanotos], and Lesser Yellowlegs [Tringa flavipes]). All species except Killdeer were in good to excellent condition, based on size-corrected body mass and fat scores. Shorebird diets were dominated by invertebrate taxa from Orders Diptera and Coleoptera. Additionally, Isopoda, Hemiptera, Hirudinea, Nematoda, and Cyprinodontiformes contribution to diets varied by shorebird species and year. We evaluated diet and foraging habitat selection by comparing aggregate percent dry mass of food items in shorebird diets and core samples from foraging substrates. Invertebrate abundances at shorebird collection sites and random sites were generally similar, indicating that birds did not select foraging patches within wetlands based on invertebrate abundance. Conversely, we found considerable evidence for selection of some diet items within particular foraging sites, and consistent avoidance of Oligochaeta. We suspect the diet selectivity we observed was a function of overall invertebrate biomass (51.2±4.4 [SE] kg/ha; dry mass) at our study sites, which was greater than estimates reported in most other food selection studies. Diet selectivity in shorebirds may follow tenants of optimal foraging theory; that is, at low food abundances shorebirds forage opportunistically, with the likelihood of selectivity increasing as food availability increases. Nonetheless, relationships between the abundance, availability, and consumption of Oligochaetes for and by waterbirds should be the focus of future research, because estimates of foraging carrying capacity would need to be revised downward if Oligochaetes are truly avoided or unavailable for consumption. PMID:23028795

QUENCHING OF CARBON MONOXIDE AND METHANE IN THE ATMOSPHERES OF COOL BROWN DWARFS AND HOT JUPITERS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Visscher, Channon; Moses, Julianne I., E-mail: visscher@lpi.usra.edu, E-mail: jmoses@spacescience.org

We explore CO{r_reversible}CH{sub 4} quench kinetics in the atmospheres of substellar objects using updated timescale arguments, as suggested by a thermochemical kinetics and diffusion model that transitions from the thermochemical-equilibrium regime in the deep atmosphere to a quench-chemical regime at higher altitudes. More specifically, we examine CO quench chemistry on the T dwarf Gliese 229B and CH{sub 4} quench chemistry on the hot-Jupiter HD 189733b. We describe a method for correctly calculating reverse rate coefficients for chemical reactions, discuss the predominant pathways for CO{r_reversible}CH{sub 4} interconversion as indicated by the model, and demonstrate that a simple timescale approach can bemore » used to accurately describe the behavior of quenched species when updated reaction kinetics and mixing-length-scale assumptions are used. Proper treatment of quench kinetics has important implications for estimates of molecular abundances and/or vertical mixing rates in the atmospheres of substellar objects. Our model results indicate significantly higher K{sub zz} values than previously estimated near the CO quench level on Gliese 229B, whereas current-model-data comparisons using CH{sub 4} permit a wide range of K{sub zz} values on HD 189733b. We also use updated reaction kinetics to revise previous estimates of the Jovian water abundance, based upon the observed abundance and chemical behavior of carbon monoxide. The CO chemical/observational constraint, along with Galileo entry probe data, suggests a water abundance of approximately 0.51-2.6 x solar (for a solar value of H{sub 2}O/H{sub 2} = 9.61 x 10{sup -4}) in Jupiter's troposphere, assuming vertical mixing from the deep atmosphere is the only source of tropospheric CO.« less

Histogrammatic Method for Determining Relative Abundance of Input Gas Pulse

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mandrake, Lukas; Bornstein, Benjamin J.; Madzunkov, Stojan; MacAskill, John A.

2012-01-01

To satisfy the Major Constituents Analysis (MCA) requirements for the Vehicle Cabin Atmosphere Monitor (VCAM), this software analyzes the relative abundance ratios for N2, O2, Ar, and CO2 as a function of time and constructs their best-estimate mean. A histogram is first built of all abundance ratios for each of the species vs time. The abundance peaks corresponding to the intended measurement and any obfuscating background are then separated via standard peak-finding techniques in histogram space. A voting scheme is then used to include/exclude this particular time sample in the final average based on its membership to the intended measurement or the background population. This results in a robust and reasonable estimate of the abundance of trace components such as CO2 and Ar even in the presence of obfuscating backgrounds internal to the VCAM device. VCAM can provide a means for monitoring the air within the enclosed environments, such as the ISS (International Space Station), Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV), a Lunar Habitat, or another vehicle traveling to Mars. Its miniature pre-concentrator, gas chromatograph (GC), and mass spectrometer can provide unbiased detection of a large number of organic species as well as MCA analysis. VCAM s software can identify the concentration of trace chemicals and whether the chemicals are on a targeted list of hazardous compounds. This innovation s performance and reliability on orbit, along with the ground team s assessment of its raw data and analysis results, will validate its technology for future use and development.

Incorporating detection probability into northern Great Plains pronghorn population estimates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jacques, Christopher N.; Jenks, Jonathan A.; Grovenburg, Troy W.; Klaver, Robert W.; DePerno, Christopher S.

2014-01-01

Pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) abundances commonly are estimated using fixed-wing surveys, but these estimates are likely to be negatively biased because of violations of key assumptions underpinning line-transect methodology. Reducing bias and improving precision of abundance estimates through use of detection probability and mark-resight models may allow for more responsive pronghorn management actions. Given their potential application in population estimation, we evaluated detection probability and mark-resight models for use in estimating pronghorn population abundance. We used logistic regression to quantify probabilities that detecting pronghorn might be influenced by group size, animal activity, percent vegetation, cover type, and topography. We estimated pronghorn population size by study area and year using mixed logit-normal mark-resight (MLNM) models. Pronghorn detection probability increased with group size, animal activity, and percent vegetation; overall detection probability was 0.639 (95% CI = 0.612–0.667) with 396 of 620 pronghorn groups detected. Despite model selection uncertainty, the best detection probability models were 44% (range = 8–79%) and 180% (range = 139–217%) greater than traditional pronghorn population estimates. Similarly, the best MLNM models were 28% (range = 3–58%) and 147% (range = 124–180%) greater than traditional population estimates. Detection probability of pronghorn was not constant but depended on both intrinsic and extrinsic factors. When pronghorn detection probability is a function of animal group size, animal activity, landscape complexity, and percent vegetation, traditional aerial survey techniques will result in biased pronghorn abundance estimates. Standardizing survey conditions, increasing resighting occasions, or accounting for variation in individual heterogeneity in mark-resight models will increase the accuracy and precision of pronghorn population estimates.

Estimating wetland vegetation abundance from Landsat-8 operational land imager imagery: a comparison between linear spectral mixture analysis and multinomial logit modeling methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Min; Gong, Zhaoning; Zhao, Wenji; Pu, Ruiliang; Liu, Ke

2016-01-01

Mapping vegetation abundance by using remote sensing data is an efficient means for detecting changes of an eco-environment. With Landsat-8 operational land imager (OLI) imagery acquired on July 31, 2013, both linear spectral mixture analysis (LSMA) and multinomial logit model (MNLM) methods were applied to estimate and assess the vegetation abundance in the Wild Duck Lake Wetland in Beijing, China. To improve mapping vegetation abundance and increase the number of endmembers in spectral mixture analysis, normalized difference vegetation index was extracted from OLI imagery along with the seven reflective bands of OLI data for estimating the vegetation abundance. Five endmembers were selected, which include terrestrial plants, aquatic plants, bare soil, high albedo, and low albedo. The vegetation abundance mapping results from Landsat OLI data were finally evaluated by utilizing a WorldView-2 multispectral imagery. Similar spatial patterns of vegetation abundance produced by both fully constrained LSMA algorithm and MNLM methods were observed: higher vegetation abundance levels were distributed in agricultural and riparian areas while lower levels in urban/built-up areas. The experimental results also indicate that the MNLM model outperformed the LSMA algorithm with smaller root mean square error (0.0152 versus 0.0252) and higher coefficient of determination (0.7856 versus 0.7214) as the MNLM model could handle the nonlinear reflection phenomenon better than the LSMA with mixed pixels.

Incorporating abundance information and guiding variable selection for climate-based ensemble forecasting of species' distributional shifts.

PubMed

Tanner, Evan P; Papeş, Monica; Elmore, R Dwayne; Fuhlendorf, Samuel D; Davis, Craig A

2017-01-01

Ecological niche models (ENMs) have increasingly been used to estimate the potential effects of climate change on species' distributions worldwide. Recently, predictions of species abundance have also been obtained with such models, though knowledge about the climatic variables affecting species abundance is often lacking. To address this, we used a well-studied guild (temperate North American quail) and the Maxent modeling algorithm to compare model performance of three variable selection approaches: correlation/variable contribution (CVC), biological (i.e., variables known to affect species abundance), and random. We then applied the best approach to forecast potential distributions, under future climatic conditions, and analyze future potential distributions in light of available abundance data and presence-only occurrence data. To estimate species' distributional shifts we generated ensemble forecasts using four global circulation models, four representative concentration pathways, and two time periods (2050 and 2070). Furthermore, we present distributional shifts where 75%, 90%, and 100% of our ensemble models agreed. The CVC variable selection approach outperformed our biological approach for four of the six species. Model projections indicated species-specific effects of climate change on future distributions of temperate North American quail. The Gambel's quail (Callipepla gambelii) was the only species predicted to gain area in climatic suitability across all three scenarios of ensemble model agreement. Conversely, the scaled quail (Callipepla squamata) was the only species predicted to lose area in climatic suitability across all three scenarios of ensemble model agreement. Our models projected future loss of areas for the northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus) and scaled quail in portions of their distributions which are currently areas of high abundance. Climatic variables that influence local abundance may not always scale up to influence species' distributions. Special attention should be given to selecting variables for ENMs, and tests of model performance should be used to validate the choice of variables.

Stellar Parameters in an Instant with Machine Learning. Application to Kepler LEGACY Targets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bellinger, Earl P.; Angelou, George C.; Hekker, Saskia; Basu, Sarbani; Ball, Warrick H.; Guggenberger, Elisabet

2017-10-01

With the advent of dedicated photometric space missions, the ability to rapidly process huge catalogues of stars has become paramount. Bellinger and Angelou et al. [1] recently introduced a new method based on machine learning for inferring the stellar parameters of main-sequence stars exhibiting solar-like oscillations. The method makes precise predictions that are consistent with other methods, but with the advantages of being able to explore many more parameters while costing practically no time. Here we apply the method to 52 so-called "LEGACY" main-sequence stars observed by the Kepler space mission. For each star, we present estimates and uncertainties of mass, age, radius, luminosity, core hydrogen abundance, surface helium abundance, surface gravity, initial helium abundance, and initial metallicity as well as estimates of their evolutionary model parameters of mixing length, overshooting coeffcient, and diffusion multiplication factor. We obtain median uncertainties in stellar age, mass, and radius of 14.8%, 3.6%, and 1.7%, respectively. The source code for all analyses and for all figures appearing in this manuscript can be found electronically at https://github.com/earlbellinger/asteroseismology

Deriving Global OH Abundance and Atmospheric Lifetimes for Long-Lived Gases: A Search for CH3CCl3 Alternatives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, Qing; Chipperfield, Martyn P.; Fleming, Eric L.; Abraham, N. Luke; Braesicke, Peter; Burkholder, James B.; Daniel, John S.; Dhomse, Sandip; Fraser, Paul J.; Hardiman, Steven C.; Jackman, Charles H.; Kinnison, Douglas E.; Krummel, Paul B.; Montzka, Stephen A.; Morgenstern, Olaf; McCulloch, Archie; Mühle, Jens; Newman, Paul A.; Orkin, Vladimir L.; Pitari, Giovanni; Prinn, Ronald G.; Rigby, Matthew; Rozanov, Eugene; Stenke, Andrea; Tummon, Fiona; Velders, Guus J. M.; Visioni, Daniele; Weiss, Ray F.

2017-11-01

An accurate estimate of global hydroxyl radical (OH) abundance is important for projections of air quality, climate, and stratospheric ozone recovery. As the atmospheric mixing ratios of methyl chloroform (CH3CCl3) (MCF), the commonly used OH reference gas, approaches zero, it is important to find alternative approaches to infer atmospheric OH abundance and variability. The lack of global bottom-up emission inventories is the primary obstacle in choosing a MCF alternative. We illustrate that global emissions of long-lived trace gases can be inferred from their observed mixing ratio differences between the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and Southern Hemisphere (SH), given realistic estimates of their NH-SH exchange time, the emission partitioning between the two hemispheres, and the NH versus SH OH abundance ratio. Using the observed long-term trend and emissions derived from the measured hemispheric gradient, the combination of HFC-32 (CH2F2), HFC-134a (CH2FCF3, HFC-152a (CH3CHF2), and HCFC-22 (CHClF2), instead of a single gas, will be useful as a MCF alternative to infer global and hemispheric OH abundance and trace gas lifetimes. The primary assumption on which this multispecies approach relies is that the OH lifetimes can be estimated by scaling the thermal reaction rates of a reference gas at 272 K on global and hemispheric scales. Thus, the derived hemispheric and global OH estimates are forced to reconcile the observed trends and gradient for all four compounds simultaneously. However, currently, observations of these gases from the surface networks do not provide more accurate OH abundance estimate than that from MCF.

Metallicities of Galaxies in the Local Universe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirschauer, Alec Seth

2018-01-01

The degree of heavy-element enrichment for star-forming galaxies in the universe is a fundamental astrophysical characteristic which traces the amount of stellar nucleosynthesis undertaken by the constituent population of stars. Estimating this quantity via the so-called "direct-method" is observationally challenging and requires measurement of intrinsically weak temperature-sensitive nebular emission lines, however these are typically not found for galaxies unless their emission lines are exceptionally bright. Metal abundances ("metallicities") must then therefore be estimated by empirical means utilizing ratios of strong emission lines, calibrated to sources of known abundance and/or theoretical models, which are measurable in essentially any nebular spectrum of a star-forming system. Relationships concerning metallicities in galaxies such as the luminosity-metallicity and mass-metallicity are critically dependent upon reliable estimations of abundances. Therefore, having a reliable observational constraint is paramount to developing models which accurately reflect the universe. This dissertation presentation explores metallicities for galaxies in the local universe through a variety of means. First, an attempt is made to improve calibrations of empirical relationships for estimating abundances for star-forming galaxies at high-metallicities, finding some intrinsic shortcomings but also revealing some interesting new findings regarding the computation of the electron gas of star-forming systems, as well as detecting some anomalously under-abundant, overly-luminous galaxies. Second, the development of a self-consistent scale for estimating metallicities allows for the creation of luminosity-metallicity and mass-metallicity relations for a statistically representative sample of star-forming galaxies in the local universe. Finally, a discovery is made of an extremely metal-poor star-forming galaxy, which opens the possibility to find more similar systems and to better understand star-formation in exceptionally low-abundance environments.

A likelihood framework for joint estimation of salmon abundance and migratory timing using telemetric mark-recapture

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bromaghin, Jeffrey F.; Gates, Kenneth S.; Palmer, Douglas E.

2010-01-01

Many fisheries for Pacific salmon Oncorhynchus spp. are actively managed to meet escapement goal objectives. In fisheries where the demand for surplus production is high, an extensive assessment program is needed to achieve the opposing objectives of allowing adequate escapement and fully exploiting the available surplus. Knowledge of abundance is a critical element of such assessment programs. Abundance estimation using mark—recapture experiments in combination with telemetry has become common in recent years, particularly within Alaskan river systems. Fish are typically captured and marked in the lower river while migrating in aggregations of individuals from multiple populations. Recapture data are obtained using telemetry receivers that are co-located with abundance assessment projects near spawning areas, which provide large sample sizes and information on population-specific mark rates. When recapture data are obtained from multiple populations, unequal mark rates may reflect a violation of the assumption of homogeneous capture probabilities. A common analytical strategy is to test the hypothesis that mark rates are homogeneous and combine all recapture data if the test is not significant. However, mark rates are often low, and a test of homogeneity may lack sufficient power to detect meaningful differences among populations. In addition, differences among mark rates may provide information that could be exploited during parameter estimation. We present a temporally stratified mark—recapture model that permits capture probabilities and migratory timing through the capture area to vary among strata. Abundance information obtained from a subset of populations after the populations have segregated for spawning is jointly modeled with telemetry distribution data by use of a likelihood function. Maximization of the likelihood produces estimates of the abundance and timing of individual populations migrating through the capture area, thus yielding substantially more information than the total abundance estimate provided by the conventional approach. The utility of the model is illustrated with data for coho salmon O. kisutch from the Kasilof River in south-central Alaska.

Cost-Effective Large-Scale Occupancy–Abundance Monitoring of Invasive Brushtail Possums (Trichosurus Vulpecula) on New Zealand’s Public Conservation Land

PubMed Central

Gormley, Andrew M.; Forsyth, David M.; Wright, Elaine F.; Lyall, John; Elliott, Mike; Martini, Mark; Kappers, Benno; Perry, Mike; McKay, Meredith

2015-01-01

There is interest in large-scale and unbiased monitoring of biodiversity status and trend, but there are few published examples of such monitoring being implemented. The New Zealand Department of Conservation is implementing a monitoring program that involves sampling selected biota at the vertices of an 8-km grid superimposed over the 8.6 million hectares of public conservation land that it manages. The introduced brushtail possum (Trichosurus Vulpecula) is a major threat to some biota and is one taxon that they wish to monitor and report on. A pilot study revealed that the traditional method of monitoring possums using leg-hold traps set for two nights, termed the Trap Catch Index, was a constraint on the cost and logistical feasibility of the monitoring program. A phased implementation of the monitoring program was therefore conducted to collect data for evaluating the trade-off between possum occupancy–abundance estimates and the costs of sampling for one night rather than two nights. Reducing trapping effort from two nights to one night along four trap-lines reduced the estimated costs of monitoring by 5.8% due to savings in labour, food and allowances; it had a negligible effect on estimated national possum occupancy but resulted in slightly higher and less precise estimates of relative possum abundance. Monitoring possums for one night rather than two nights would provide an annual saving of NZ$72,400, with 271 fewer field days required for sampling. Possums occupied 60% (95% credible interval; 53–68) of sampling locations on New Zealand’s public conservation land, with a mean relative abundance (Trap Catch Index) of 2.7% (2.0–3.5). Possum occupancy and abundance were higher in forest than in non-forest habitats. Our case study illustrates the need to evaluate relationships between sampling design, cost, and occupancy–abundance estimates when designing and implementing large-scale occupancy–abundance monitoring programs. PMID:26029890

Estimating occupancy and abundance of stream amphibians using environmental DNA from filtered water samples

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pilliod, David S.; Goldberg, Caren S.; Arkle, Robert S.; Waits, Lisette P.

2013-01-01

Environmental DNA (eDNA) methods for detecting aquatic species are advancing rapidly, but with little evaluation of field protocols or precision of resulting estimates. We compared sampling results from traditional field methods with eDNA methods for two amphibians in 13 streams in central Idaho, USA. We also evaluated three water collection protocols and the influence of sampling location, time of day, and distance from animals on eDNA concentration in the water. We found no difference in detection or amount of eDNA among water collection protocols. eDNA methods had slightly higher detection rates than traditional field methods, particularly when species occurred at low densities. eDNA concentration was positively related to field-measured density, biomass, and proportion of transects occupied. Precision of eDNA-based abundance estimates increased with the amount of eDNA in the water and the number of replicate subsamples collected. eDNA concentration did not vary significantly with sample location in the stream, time of day, or distance downstream from animals. Our results further advance the implementation of eDNA methods for monitoring aquatic vertebrates in stream habitats.

Noise estimation for hyperspectral imagery using spectral unmixing and synthesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demirkesen, C.; Leloglu, Ugur M.

2014-10-01

Most hyperspectral image (HSI) processing algorithms assume a signal to noise ratio model in their formulation which makes them dependent on accurate noise estimation. Many techniques have been proposed to estimate the noise. A very comprehensive comparative study on the subject is done by Gao et al. [1]. In a nut-shell, most techniques are based on the idea of calculating standard deviation from assumed-to-be homogenous regions in the image. Some of these algorithms work on a regular grid parameterized with a window size w, while others make use of image segmentation in order to obtain homogenous regions. This study focuses not only to the statistics of the noise but to the estimation of the noise itself. A noise estimation technique motivated from a recent HSI de-noising approach [2] is proposed in this study. The denoising algorithm is based on estimation of the end-members and their fractional abundances using non-negative least squares method. The end-members are extracted using the well-known simplex volume optimization technique called NFINDR after manual selection of number of end-members and the image is reconstructed using the estimated endmembers and abundances. Actually, image de-noising and noise estimation are two sides of the same coin: Once we denoise an image, we can estimate the noise by calculating the difference of the de-noised image and the original noisy image. In this study, the noise is estimated as described above. To assess the accuracy of this method, the methodology in [1] is followed, i.e., synthetic images are created by mixing end-member spectra and noise. Since best performing method for noise estimation was spectral and spatial de-correlation (SSDC) originally proposed in [3], the proposed method is compared to SSDC. The results of the experiments conducted with synthetic HSIs suggest that the proposed noise estimation strategy outperforms the existing techniques in terms of mean and standard deviation of absolute error of the estimated noise. Finally, it is shown that the proposed technique demonstrated a robust behavior to the change of its single parameter, namely the number of end-members.

Estimation of density of mongooses with capture-recapture and distance sampling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Corn, J.L.; Conroy, M.J.

1998-01-01

We captured mongooses (Herpestes javanicus) in live traps arranged in trapping webs in Antigua, West Indies, and used capture-recapture and distance sampling to estimate density. Distance estimation and program DISTANCE were used to provide estimates of density from the trapping-web data. Mean density based on trapping webs was 9.5 mongooses/ha (range, 5.9-10.2/ha); estimates had coefficients of variation ranging from 29.82-31.58% (X?? = 30.46%). Mark-recapture models were used to estimate abundance, which was converted to density using estimates of effective trap area. Tests of model assumptions provided by CAPTURE indicated pronounced heterogeneity in capture probabilities and some indication of behavioral response and variation over time. Mean estimated density was 1.80 mongooses/ha (range, 1.37-2.15/ha) with estimated coefficients of variation of 4.68-11.92% (X?? = 7.46%). Estimates of density based on mark-recapture data depended heavily on assumptions about animal home ranges; variances of densities also may be underestimated, leading to unrealistically narrow confidence intervals. Estimates based on trap webs require fewer assumptions, and estimated variances may be a more realistic representation of sampling variation. Because trap webs are established easily and provide adequate data for estimation in a few sample occasions, the method should be efficient and reliable for estimating densities of mongooses.

Modelling Landscape-Level Numerical Responses of Predators to Prey: The Case of Cats and Rabbits

PubMed Central

Cruz, Jennyffer; Glen, Alistair S.; Pech, Roger P.

2013-01-01

Predator-prey systems can extend over large geographical areas but empirical modelling of predator-prey dynamics has been largely limited to localised scales. This is due partly to difficulties in estimating predator and prey abundances over large areas. Collection of data at suitably large scales has been a major problem in previous studies of European rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus) and their predators. This applies in Western Europe, where conserving rabbits and predators such as Iberian lynx (Lynx pardinus) is important, and in other parts of the world where rabbits are an invasive species supporting populations of introduced, and sometimes native, predators. In pastoral regions of New Zealand, rabbits are the primary prey of feral cats (Felis catus) that threaten native fauna. We estimate the seasonal numerical response of cats to fluctuations in rabbit numbers in grassland–shrubland habitat across the Otago and Mackenzie regions of the South Island of New Zealand. We use spotlight counts over 1645 km of transects to estimate rabbit and cat abundances with a novel modelling approach that accounts simultaneously for environmental stochasticity, density dependence and varying detection probability. Our model suggests that cat abundance is related consistently to rabbit abundance in spring and summer, possibly through increased rabbit numbers improving the fecundity and juvenile survival of cats. Maintaining rabbits at low abundance should therefore suppress cat numbers, relieving predation pressure on native prey. Our approach provided estimates of the abundance of cats and rabbits over a large geographical area. This was made possible by repeated sampling within each season, which allows estimation of detection probabilities. A similar approach could be applied to predator-prey systems elsewhere, and could be adapted to any method of direct observation in which there is no double-counting of individuals. Reliable estimates of numerical responses are essential for managing both invasive and threatened predators and prey. PMID:24039978

Estimating abundances of interacting species using morphological traits, foraging guilds, and habitat

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dorazio, Robert M.; Connor, Edward F.

2014-01-01

We developed a statistical model to estimate the abundances of potentially interacting species encountered while conducting point-count surveys at a set of ecologically relevant locations - as in a metacommunity of species. In the model we assume that abundances of species with similar traits (e.g., body size) are potentially correlated and that these correlations, when present, may exist among all species or only among functionally related species (such as members of the same foraging guild). We also assume that species-specific abundances vary among locations owing to systematic and stochastic sources of heterogeneity. For example, if abundances differ among locations due to differences in habitat, then measures of habitat may be included in the model as covariates. Naturally, the quantitative effects of these covariates are assumed to differ among species. Our model also accounts for the effects of detectability on the observed counts of each species. This aspect of the model is especially important for rare or uncommon species that may be difficult to detect in community-level surveys. Estimating the detectability of each species requires sampling locations to be surveyed repeatedly using different observers or different visits of a single observer. As an illustration, we fitted models to species-specific counts of birds obtained while sampling an avian community during the breeding season. In the analysis we examined whether species abundances appeared to be correlated due to similarities in morphological measures (body mass, beak length, tarsus length, wing length, tail length) and whether these correlations existed among all species or only among species of the same foraging guild. We also used the model to estimate the effects of forested area on species abundances and the effects of sound power output (as measured by body size) on species detection probabilities.

New aerial survey and hierarchical model to estimate manatee abundance

USGS Publications Warehouse

Langimm, Cahterine A.; Dorazio, Robert M.; Stith, Bradley M.; Doyle, Terry J.

2011-01-01

Monitoring the response of endangered and protected species to hydrological restoration is a major component of the adaptive management framework of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan. The endangered Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) lives at the marine-freshwater interface in southwest Florida and is likely to be affected by hydrologic restoration. To provide managers with prerestoration information on distribution and abundance for postrestoration comparison, we developed and implemented a new aerial survey design and hierarchical statistical model to estimate and map abundance of manatees as a function of patch-specific habitat characteristics, indicative of manatee requirements for offshore forage (seagrass), inland fresh drinking water, and warm-water winter refuge. We estimated the number of groups of manatees from dual-observer counts and estimated the number of individuals within groups by removal sampling. Our model is unique in that we jointly analyzed group and individual counts using assumptions that allow probabilities of group detection to depend on group size. Ours is the first analysis of manatee aerial surveys to model spatial and temporal abundance of manatees in association with habitat type while accounting for imperfect detection. We conducted the study in the Ten Thousand Islands area of southwestern Florida, USA, which was expected to be affected by the Picayune Strand Restoration Project to restore hydrology altered for a failed real-estate development. We conducted 11 surveys in 2006, spanning the cold, dry season and warm, wet season. To examine short-term and seasonal changes in distribution we flew paired surveys 1–2 days apart within a given month during the year. Manatees were sparsely distributed across the landscape in small groups. Probability of detection of a group increased with group size; the magnitude of the relationship between group size and detection probability varied among surveys. Probability of detection of individual manatees within a group also differed among surveys, ranging from a low of 0.27 on 11 January to a high of 0.73 on 8 August. During winter surveys, abundance was always higher inland at Port of the Islands (POI), a manatee warm-water aggregation site, than in the other habitat types. During warm-season surveys, highest abundances were estimated in offshore habitat where manatees forage on seagrass. Manatees continued to use POI in summer, but in lower numbers than in winter, possibly to drink freshwater. Abundance in other inland systems and inshore bays was low compared to POI in winter and summer, possibly because of low availability of freshwater. During cold weather, maps of patch abundance of paired surveys showed daily changes in manatee distribution associated with rapid changes in air and water temperature as manatees sought warm water with falling temperatures and seagrass areas with increasing temperatures. Within a habitat type, some patches had higher manatee abundance suggesting differences in quality, possibly due to freshwater flow. If hydrological restoration alters the location of quality habitat, postrestoration comparisons using our methods will document how manatees adjust to new resources, providing managers with information on spatial needs for further monitoring or management. Total abundance for the entire area was similar among survey dates. Credible intervals however were large on a few surveys, and may limit our ability to statistically detect trends in total abundance. Additional modeling of abundance with time- and patch-specific covariates of salinity, water temperature, and seagrass abundance will directly link manatee abundance with physical and biological changes due to restoration and should decrease uncertainty of estimates.

Population Estimation Methods for Free-Ranging Dogs: A Systematic Review.

PubMed

Belo, Vinícius Silva; Werneck, Guilherme Loureiro; da Silva, Eduardo Sérgio; Barbosa, David Soeiro; Struchiner, Claudio José

2015-01-01

The understanding of the structure of free-roaming dog populations is of extreme importance for the planning and monitoring of populational control strategies and animal welfare. The methods used to estimate the abundance of this group of dogs are more complex than the ones used with domiciled owned dogs. In this systematic review, we analyze the techniques and the results obtained in studies that seek to estimate the size of free-ranging dog populations. Twenty-six studies were reviewed regarding the quality of execution and their capacity to generate valid estimates. Seven of the eight publications that take a simple count of the animal population did not consider the different probabilities of animal detection; only one study used methods based on distances; twelve relied on capture-recapture models for closed populations without considering heterogeneities in capture probabilities; six studies applied their own methods with different potential and limitations. Potential sources of bias in the studies were related to the inadequate description or implementation of animal capturing or viewing procedures and to inadequacies in the identification and registration of dogs. Thus, there was a predominance of estimates with low validity. Abundance and density estimates carried high variability, and all studies identified a greater number of male dogs. We point to enhancements necessary for the implementation of future studies and to potential updates and revisions to the recommendations of the World Health Organization with respect to the estimation of free-ranging dog populations.

A time-lapse photography method for monitoring salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) passage and abundance in streams

PubMed Central

Leacock, William B.; Eby, Lisa A.; Stanford, Jack A.

2016-01-01

Accurately estimating population sizes is often a critical component of fisheries research and management. Although there is a growing appreciation of the importance of small-scale salmon population dynamics to the stability of salmon stock-complexes, our understanding of these populations is constrained by a lack of efficient and cost-effective monitoring tools for streams. Weirs are expensive, labor intensive, and can disrupt natural fish movements. While conventional video systems avoid some of these shortcomings, they are expensive and require excessive amounts of labor to review footage for data collection. Here, we present a novel method for quantifying salmon in small streams (<15 m wide, <1 m deep) that uses both time-lapse photography and video in a model-based double sampling scheme. This method produces an escapement estimate nearly as accurate as a video-only approach, but with substantially less labor, money, and effort. It requires servicing only every 14 days, detects salmon 24 h/day, is inexpensive, and produces escapement estimates with confidence intervals. In addition to escapement estimation, we present a method for estimating in-stream salmon abundance across time, data needed by researchers interested in predator--prey interactions or nutrient subsidies. We combined daily salmon passage estimates with stream specific estimates of daily mortality developed using previously published data. To demonstrate proof of concept for these methods, we present results from two streams in southwest Kodiak Island, Alaska in which high densities of sockeye salmon spawn. PMID:27326378

Thresholds in the response of free-floating plant abundance to variation in hydraulic connectivity, nutrients, and macrophyte abundance in a large floodplain river

USGS Publications Warehouse

Giblin, Shawn M.; Houser, Jeffrey N.; Sullivan, John F.; Langrehr, H.A.; Rogala, James T.; Campbell, Benjamin D.

2014-01-01

Duckweed and other free-floating plants (FFP) can form dense surface mats that affect ecosystem condition and processes, and can impair public use of aquatic resources. FFP obtain their nutrients from the water column, and the formation of dense FFP mats can be a consequence and indicator of river eutrophication. We conducted two complementary surveys of diverse aquatic areas of the Upper Mississippi River as an in situ approach for estimating thresholds in the response of FFP abundance to nutrient concentration and physical conditions in a large, floodplain river. Local regression analysis was used to estimate thresholds in the relations between FFP abundance and phosphorus (P) concentration (0.167 mg l−1L), nitrogen (N) concentration (0.808 mg l−1), water velocity (0.095 m s−1), and aquatic macrophyte abundance (65 % cover). FFP tissue concentrations suggested P limitation was more likely in spring, N limitation was more likely in late summer, and N limitation was most likely in backwaters with minimal hydraulic connection to the channel. The thresholds estimated here, along with observed patterns in nutrient limitation, provide river scientists and managers with criteria to consider when attempting to modify FFP abundance in off-channel areas of large river systems.

A water marker monitored by satellites to predict seasonal endemic cholera.

PubMed

Jutla, Antarpreet; Akanda, Ali Shafqat; Huq, Anwar; Faruque, Abu Syed Golam; Colwell, Rita; Islam, Shafiqul

2013-01-01

The ability to predict an occurrence of cholera, a water-related disease, offers a significant public health advantage. Satellite based estimates of chlorophyll, a surrogate for plankton abundance, have been linked to cholera incidence. However, cholera bacteria can survive under a variety of coastal ecological conditions, thus constraining the predictive ability of the chlorophyll, since it provides only an estimate of greenness of seawater. Here, a new remote sensing based index is proposed: Satellite Water Marker (SWM), which estimates condition of coastal water, based on observed variability in the difference between blue (412 nm) and green (555 nm) wavelengths that can be related to seasonal cholera incidence. The index is bounded between physically separable wavelengths for relatively clear (blue) and turbid (green) water. Using SWM, prediction of cholera with reasonable accuracy, with at least two month in advance, can potentially be achieved in the endemic coastal regions.

New method for estimating bacterial cell abundances in natural samples by use of sublimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Glavin, Daniel P.; Cleaves, H. James; Schubert, Michael; Aubrey, Andrew; Bada, Jeffrey L.

2004-01-01

We have developed a new method based on the sublimation of adenine from Escherichia coli to estimate bacterial cell counts in natural samples. To demonstrate this technique, several types of natural samples, including beach sand, seawater, deep-sea sediment, and two soil samples from the Atacama Desert, were heated to a temperature of 500 degrees C for several seconds under reduced pressure. The sublimate was collected on a cold finger, and the amount of adenine released from the samples was then determined by high-performance liquid chromatography with UV absorbance detection. Based on the total amount of adenine recovered from DNA and RNA in these samples, we estimated bacterial cell counts ranging from approximately 10(5) to 10(9) E. coli cell equivalents per gram. For most of these samples, the sublimation-based cell counts were in agreement with total bacterial counts obtained by traditional DAPI (4,6-diamidino-2-phenylindole) staining.

Inferring interactions in complex microbial communities from nucleotide sequence data and environmental parameters

PubMed Central

Shang, Yu; Sikorski, Johannes; Bonkowski, Michael; Fiore-Donno, Anna-Maria; Kandeler, Ellen; Marhan, Sven; Boeddinghaus, Runa S.; Solly, Emily F.; Schrumpf, Marion; Schöning, Ingo; Wubet, Tesfaye; Buscot, Francois; Overmann, Jörg

2017-01-01

Interactions occur between two or more organisms affecting each other. Interactions are decisive for the ecology of the organisms. Without direct experimental evidence the analysis of interactions is difficult. Correlation analyses that are based on co-occurrences are often used to approximate interaction. Here, we present a new mathematical model to estimate the interaction strengths between taxa, based on changes in their relative abundances across environmental gradients. PMID:28288199

Robust Abundance Estimation in Animal Abundance Surveys with Imperfect Detection

EPA Science Inventory

Surveys of animal abundance are central to the conservation and management of living natural resources. However, detection uncertainty complicates the sampling process of many species. One sampling method employed to deal with this problem is depletion (or removal) surveys in whi...

Demographic trends in Claremont California’s street tree population

Treesearch

Natalie S. van Doorn; E. Gregory McPherson

2018-01-01

The aim of this study was to quantify street tree population dynamics in the city of Claremont, CA. A repeated measures survey (2000 and 2014) based on a stratified random sampling approach across size classes and for the most abundant 21 species was analyzed to calculate removal, growth, and replacement planting rates. Demographic rates were estimated using a...

Breeding chorus indices are weakly related to estimated abundance of boreal chorus frogs

Treesearch

Paul Stephen Corn; Erin Muths; Amanda M. Kissel; Rick D. Scherer

2011-01-01

Call surveys used to monitor breeding choruses of anuran amphibians generate index values that are frequently used to represent the number of male frogs present, but few studies have quantified this relationship. We compared abundance of male Boreal Chorus Frogs (Pseudacris maculata), estimated using capture-recapture methods in two populations in Colorado, to call...

Estimating abundance of Sitka black-tailed deer using DNA from fecal pellets

Treesearch

Todd J. Brinkman; David K. Person; F. Stuart Chapin; Winston Smith; Kris J. Hundertmark

2011-01-01

Densely vegetated environments have hindered collection of basic population parameters on forest-dwelling ungulates. Our objective was to develop a mark-recapture technique that used DNA from fecal pellets to overcome constraints associated with estimating abundance of ungulates in landscapes where direct observation is difficult. We tested our technique on Sitka black...

Predicting the Total Abundance of Resident Salmonids within the Willamette River Basin, Oregon - a Macroecological Modeling Approach

EPA Science Inventory

I present a simple, macroecological model of fish abundance that was used to estimate the total number of non-migratory salmonids within the Willamette River Basin (western Oregon). The model begins with empirical point estimates of net primary production (NPP in g C/m2) in fore...

Estimating occupancy and abundance using aerial images with imperfect detection

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, Perry J.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Womble, Jamie N.; Bower, Michael R.

2017-01-01

Species distribution and abundance are critical population characteristics for efficient management, conservation, and ecological insight. Point process models are a powerful tool for modelling distribution and abundance, and can incorporate many data types, including count data, presence-absence data, and presence-only data. Aerial photographic images are a natural tool for collecting data to fit point process models, but aerial images do not always capture all animals that are present at a site. Methods for estimating detection probability for aerial surveys usually include collecting auxiliary data to estimate the proportion of time animals are available to be detected.We developed an approach for fitting point process models using an N-mixture model framework to estimate detection probability for aerial occupancy and abundance surveys. Our method uses multiple aerial images taken of animals at the same spatial location to provide temporal replication of sample sites. The intersection of the images provide multiple counts of individuals at different times. We examined this approach using both simulated and real data of sea otters (Enhydra lutris kenyoni) in Glacier Bay National Park, southeastern Alaska.Using our proposed methods, we estimated detection probability of sea otters to be 0.76, the same as visual aerial surveys that have been used in the past. Further, simulations demonstrated that our approach is a promising tool for estimating occupancy, abundance, and detection probability from aerial photographic surveys.Our methods can be readily extended to data collected using unmanned aerial vehicles, as technology and regulations permit. The generality of our methods for other aerial surveys depends on how well surveys can be designed to meet the assumptions of N-mixture models.

CNO Abundances in Metal-Rich Environments: Infrared Space Observatory Spectroscopy of Ionized Gas in M51

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garnett, Donald R.; Edmunds, Michael G.; Henry, Richard B. C.; Pagel, Bernard E. J.; Skillman, Evan D.

2004-12-01

We present Infrared Space Observatory (ISO) Long Wavelength Spectrograph observations centered on the H II region CCM 10 in the spiral galaxy M51. We detect several emission lines in this spectrum, including [O I] 63 and 145 μm, [C II] 158 μm, [O III] 88 μm, and [N II] 122 μm, with a significant upper limit on [N III] 57 μm. We use these measurements to estimate abundances for C, N, and O in the interstellar medium in M51. We compare our [O III] 88 μm flux with the flux for [O III] λ5007 obtained from narrowband imaging. The derived 5007Å/88μm ratio yields an electron temperature Te=5300+/-300 K. This temperature agrees with estimates of T[O III] based on photoionization models of CCM 10 with logO/H=-3.2, an abundance that is about a factor of 2 smaller than earlier results for this object derived from photoionization modeling of the visible spectrum. A possible cause for the discrepancy is that the older photoionization models based on CLOUDY predict significantly larger optical emission-line strengths than the current version of CLOUDY at the same metallicity; models with the more recent version are more consistent with the observed spectra of M51 H II region with reduced O/H. Assuming N/O=N+2/O+2, the upper limit for [NIII]/[OIII] yields logN/O<-0.5, which is consistent with the trend of N/O versus O/H seen in other spiral galaxies. C/O is estimated from the [CII]/[OI] ratio using photodissociation region models constrained by published CO line ratios, [CI]/CO, and [OI]63μm/145μm. With these various constraints on ne and G0, the observed [CII]/[OI] intensity ratio is in good agreeement with that predicted by photodissociation region models with approximately solar abundances. We infer from this that C/O in M51 is consistent with the solar neighborhood value.

Validity of abundances derived from spaxel spectra of the MaNGA survey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pilyugin, L. S.; Grebel, E. K.; Zinchenko, I. A.; Nefedyev, Y. A.; Shulga, V. M.; Wei, H.; Berczik, P. P.

2018-05-01

We measured the emission lines in the spaxel spectra of Mapping Nearby Galaxies at Apache Point Observatory (MaNGA) galaxies in order to determine the abundance distributions therein. It has been suggested that the strength of the low-ionization lines, R2, N2, and S2, may be increased (relative to Balmer lines) in (some) spaxel spectra of the MaNGA survey due to a contribution of the radiation of the diffuse ionized gas. Consequently, the abundances derived from the spaxel spectra through strong-line methods may suffer from large errors. We examined this expectation by comparing the behaviour of the line intensities and the abundances estimated through different calibrations for slit spectra of H II regions in nearby galaxies, for fibre spectra from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey, and for spaxel spectra of the MaNGA survey. We found that the S2 strength is increased significantly in the fibre and spaxel spectra. The mean enhancement changes with metallicity and can be as large as a factor of 2. The mean distortion of R2 and N2 is less than a factor of 1.3. This suggests that Kaufmann et al.'s (2003, MNRAS, 346, 1055) demarcation line between active galactic nuclei and H II regions in the Baldwin, Phillips, & Terlevich (BPT, 1981, PASP, 93, 5) diagram is a useful criterion to reject spectra with significantly distorted strengths of the N2 and R2 lines. We find that the three-dimensional R calibration, which uses the N2 and R2 lines, produces reliable abundances in the MaNGA galaxies. The one-dimensional N2 calibration produces either reliable or wrong abundances depending on whether excitation and N/O abundance ratio in the target region (spaxel) are close to or differ from those parameters in the calibrating points located close to the calibration relation. We then determined abundance distributions within the optical radii in the discs of 47 MaNGA galaxies. The optical radii of the galaxies were estimated from the surface brightness profiles constructed based on the MaNGA observations.

Aerobic and anaerobic methanotrophic communities in urban landscape wetland.

PubMed

Chen, Sili; Chen, Jianfei; Chang, Sha; Yi, Hao; Huang, Dawei; Xie, Shuguang; Guo, Qingwei

2018-01-01

Both aerobic methane-oxidizing bacteria (MOB) and nitrite-dependent anaerobic methane oxidation (n-damo) organisms can be important methane sinks in a wetland. However, the influences of the vegetation type on aerobic MOB and n-damo communities in wetland, especially in constructed wetland, remain poorly understood. The present study investigated the influences of the vegetation type on both aerobic MOB and n-damo organisms in a constructed urban landscape wetland. Sediments were collected from eight sites vegetated with different plant species. The abundance (1.19-3.27 × 10 7 pmoA gene copies per gram dry sediment), richness (Chao1 estimator = 16.3-81.5), diversity (Shannon index = 2.10-3.15), and structure of the sediment aerobic MOB community were found to vary considerably with sampling site. In contrast, n-damo community abundance (8.74 × 10 5 -4.80 × 10 6 NC10 16S rRNA gene copies per gram dry sediment) changed slightly with the sampling site. The richness (Chao1 estimator = 1-11), diversity (Shannon index = 0-0.78), and structure of the NC10 16S rRNA gene-based n-damo community illustrated slight site-related changes, while the spatial changes of the pmoA gene-based n-damo community richness (Chao1 estimator = 1-8), diversity (Shannon index = 0-0.99), and structure were considerable. The vegetation type could have a profound impact on the wetland aerobic MOB community and had a stronger influence on the pmoA-based n-damo community than on the NC10 16S-based one in urban wetland. Moreover, the aerobic MOB community had greater abundance and higher richness and diversity than the n-damo community. Methylocystis (type II MOB) predominated in urban wetland, while no known type I MOB species was detected. In addition, the ratio of total organic carbon to total nitrogen (C/N) might be a determinant of sediment n-damo community diversity and aerobic MOB richness.

Night sampling improves indices used for management of yellow perch in Lake Erie

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kocovsky, P.M.; Stapanian, M.A.; Knight, C.T.

2010-01-01

Catch rate (catch per hour) was examined for age-0 and age-1 yellow perch, Perca flavescens (Mitchill), captured in bottom trawls from 1991 to 2005 in western Lake Erie: (1) to examine variation of catch rate among years, seasons, diel periods and their interactions; and (2) to determine whether sampling during particular diel periods improved the management value of CPH data used in models to project abundance of age-2 yellow perch. Catch rate varied with year, season and the diel period during which sampling was conducted as well as by the interaction between year and season. Indices of abundance of age-0 and age-1 yellow perch estimated from night samples typically produced better fitting models and lower estimates of age-2 abundance than those using morning or afternoon samples, whereas indices using afternoon samples typically produced less precise and higher estimates of abundance. The diel period during which sampling is conducted will not affect observed population trends but may affect estimates of abundance of age-0 and age-1 yellow perch, which in turn affect recommended allowable harvest. A field experiment throughout western Lake Erie is recommended to examine potential benefits of night sampling to management of yellow perch. Published 2010. The article is a US Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

A comparison of techniques for assessing farmland bumblebee populations.

PubMed

Wood, T J; Holland, J M; Goulson, D

2015-04-01

Agri-environment schemes have been implemented across the European Union in order to reverse declines in farmland biodiversity. To assess the impact of these schemes for bumblebees, accurate measures of their populations are required. Here, we compared bumblebee population estimates on 16 farms using three commonly used techniques: standardised line transects, coloured pan traps and molecular estimates of nest abundance. There was no significant correlation between the estimates obtained by the three techniques, suggesting that each technique captured a different aspect of local bumblebee population size and distribution in the landscape. Bumblebee abundance as observed on the transects was positively influenced by the number of flowers present on the transect. The number of bumblebees caught in pan traps was positively influenced by the density of flowers surrounding the trapping location and negatively influenced by wider landscape heterogeneity. Molecular estimates of the number of nests of Bombus terrestris and B. hortorum were positively associated with the proportion of the landscape covered in oilseed rape and field beans. Both direct survey techniques are strongly affected by floral abundance immediately around the survey site, potentially leading to misleading results if attempting to infer overall abundance in an area or on a farm. In contrast, whilst the molecular method suffers from an inability to detect sister pairs at low sample sizes, it appears to be unaffected by the abundance of forage and thus is the preferred survey technique.

Estimating the abundance of the Southern Hudson Bay polar bear subpopulation with aerial surveys

USGS Publications Warehouse

Obbard, Martyn E.; Stapleton, Seth P.; Middel, Kevin R.; Thibault, Isabelle; Brodeur, Vincent; Jutras, Charles

2015-01-01

The Southern Hudson Bay (SH) polar bear subpopulation occurs at the southern extent of the species’ range. Although capture–recapture studies indicate abundance was likely unchanged between 1986 and 2005, declines in body condition and survival occurred during the period, possibly foreshadowing a future decrease in abundance. To obtain a current estimate of abundance, we conducted a comprehensive line transect aerial survey of SH during 2011–2012. We stratified the study site by anticipated densities and flew coastal contour transects and systematically spaced inland transects in Ontario and on Akimiski Island and large offshore islands in 2011. Data were collected with double-observer and distance sampling protocols. We surveyed small islands in James Bay and eastern Hudson Bay and flew a comprehensive transect along the Québec coastline in 2012. We observed 667 bears in Ontario and on Akimiski Island and nearby islands in 2011, and we sighted 80 bears on offshore islands during 2012. Mark–recapture distance sampling and sight–resight models yielded an estimate of 860 (SE = 174) for the 2011 study area. Our estimate of abundance for the entire SH subpopulation (943; SE = 174) suggests that abundance is unlikely to have changed significantly since 1986. However, this result should be interpreted cautiously because of the methodological differences between historical studies (physical capture–recapture) and this survey. A conservative management approach is warranted given previous increases in duration of the ice-free season, which are predicted to continue in the future, and previously documented declines in body condition and vital rates.

Estimating abundance of the Southern Hudson Bay polar bear subpopulation using aerial surveys, 2011 and 2012

USGS Publications Warehouse

Obbard, Martyn E.; Middel, Kevin R.; Stapleton, Seth P.; Thibault, Isabelle; Brodeur, Vincent; Jutras, Charles

2013-01-01

The Southern Hudson Bay (SH) polar bear subpopulation occurs at the southern extent of the species’ range. Although capture-recapture studies indicate that abundance remained stable between 1986 and 2005, declines in body condition and survival were documented during the period, possibly foreshadowing a future decrease in abundance. To obtain a current estimate of abundance, we conducted a comprehensive line transect aerial survey of SH during 2011–2012. We stratified the study site by anticipated densities and flew coastal contour transects and systematically spaced inland transects in Ontario and on Akimiski Island and large offshore islands in 2011. Data were collected with double observer and distance sampling protocols. We also surveyed small islands in Hudson Bay and James Bay and flew a comprehensive transect along the Québec coastline in 2012. We observed 667 bears in Ontario and on Akimiski Island and nearby islands in 2011, and we sighted 80 bears on offshore islands during 2012. Mark-recapture distance sampling and sightresight models yielded a model-averaged estimate of 868 (SE: 177) for the 2011 study area. Our estimate of abundance for the entire SH subpopulation (951; SE: 177) suggests that abundance has remained unchanged. However, this result should be interpreted cautiously because of the methodological differences between historical studies (physical capture) and this survey. A conservative management approach is warranted given the previous increases in the duration of the ice-free season, which are predicted to continue in the future, and previously documented declines in body condition and vital rates.

Relative Abundance of Carsonella ruddii (Gamma Proteobacterium) in Females and Males of Cacopsylla pyricola (Hemiptera: Psyllidae) and Bactericera cockerelli (Hemiptera: Triozidae)

PubMed Central

Cooper, W. Rodney; Garczynski, Stephen F.; Horton, David R.

2015-01-01

Carsonella ruddii (Gamma Proteobacterium) is an obligate bacterial endosymbiont of psyllids that produces essential amino acids that are lacking in the insect’s diet. Accurate estimations of Carsonella populations are important to studies of Carsonella-psyllid interactions and to developing ways to target Carsonella for control of psyllid pests including pear psylla, Cacopsylla pyricola (Förster) (Hemiptera: Psyllidae) and potato psyllid, Bactericera cockerelli (Šulc) (Hemiptera: Triozidae). We used two methods, namely fluorescence in situ hybridization and quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR), to estimate relative abundance of Carsonella in bacteriocytes and whole bodies of psyllids, respectively. Using these two methods, we compared Carsonella populations between female and male insects. Estimations using fluorescence in situ hybridization indicated that Carsonella was more abundant in bacteriocytes of female C. pyricola than in those of males, but Carsonella abundance in bacteriocytes did not differ between sexes of B. cockerelli. Analyses by qPCR using whole-body specimens indicated Carsonella was more abundant in females than in males of both psyllids. Neither fluorescence in situ hybridization nor qPCR indicated that Carsonella populations differed in abundance among adults of different ages (0–3 wk after adult eclosion). Using fluorescence in situ hybridization, Carsonella was observed in ovarioles of newly emerged females and formed an aggregation in the posterior end of mature oocytes. Results of our study indicate that female psyllids harbor greater populations of Carsonella than do males and that sex should be controlled for in studies which require estimations of Carsonella populations. PMID:26056318

Spatio-temporal optimization of sampling for bluetongue vectors (Culicoides) near grazing livestock

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Estimating the abundance of Culicoides using light traps is influenced by a large variation in abundance in time and place. This study investigates the optimal trapping strategy to estimate the abundance or presence/absence of Culicoides on a field with grazing animals. We used 45 light traps to sample specimens from the Culicoides obsoletus species complex on a 14 hectare field during 16 nights in 2009. Findings The large number of traps and catch nights enabled us to simulate a series of samples consisting of different numbers of traps (1-15) on each night. We also varied the number of catch nights when simulating the sampling, and sampled with increasing minimum distances between traps. We used resampling to generate a distribution of different mean and median abundance in each sample. Finally, we used the hypergeometric distribution to estimate the probability of falsely detecting absence of vectors on the field. The variation in the estimated abundance decreased steeply when using up to six traps, and was less pronounced when using more traps, although no clear cutoff was found. Conclusions Despite spatial clustering in vector abundance, we found no effect of increasing the distance between traps. We found that 18 traps were generally required to reach 90% probability of a true positive catch when sampling just one night. But when sampling over two nights the same probability level was obtained with just three traps per night. The results are useful for the design of vector monitoring programmes on fields with grazing animals. PMID:23705770

Consistency between satellite-derived and modeled estimates of the direct aerosol effect.

PubMed

Myhre, Gunnar

2009-07-10

In the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report, the direct aerosol effect is reported to have a radiative forcing estimate of -0.5 Watt per square meter (W m(-2)), offsetting the warming from CO2 by almost one-third. The uncertainty, however, ranges from -0.9 to -0.1 W m(-2), which is largely due to differences between estimates from global aerosol models and observation-based estimates, with the latter tending to have stronger (more negative) radiative forcing. This study demonstrates consistency between a global aerosol model and adjustment to an observation-based method, producing a global and annual mean radiative forcing that is weaker than -0.5 W m(-2), with a best estimate of -0.3 W m(-2). The physical explanation for the earlier discrepancy is that the relative increase in anthropogenic black carbon (absorbing aerosols) is much larger than the overall increase in the anthropogenic abundance of aerosols.

Linking N2O emission from biochar-amended composting process to the abundance of denitrify (nirK and nosZ) bacteria community.

PubMed

Li, Shuqing; Song, Lina; Jin, Yaguo; Liu, Shuwei; Shen, Qirong; Zou, Jianwen

2016-12-01

Manure composting has been recognized as an important anthropogenic source of nitrous oxide (N2O) contributing to global warming. However, biochar effect on N2O emissions from manure composting is rarely evaluated, especially by linking it to abundance of denitrifying bacteria community. Results of this study indicated that biochar amendment significantly reduced N2O emissions from manure composting, primarily due to suppression of the nirK gene abundance of denitrifying bacteria. Pearson's correlation analysis showed a significant positive correlation between nirK abundance and N2O fluxes, while a negative correlation between nosZ density and N2O fluxes. Simultaneously, a linear correlation between nirK gene abundance minus nosZ gene abundance with N2O fluxes was also observed. In addition, a statistical model for estimating N2O emissions based on the bacterial denitrifying functional genes was developed and verified to adequately fit the observed emissions. Our results highlighted that biochar amendment would be an alternative strategy for mitigating N2O emissions during manure composting, and the information of related functional bacterial communities could be helpful for understanding the mechanism of N2O emissions.

Relative abundance and size of coastal sharks derived from commercial shark longline catch and effort data.

PubMed

Carlson, J K; Hale, L F; Morgan, A; Burgess, G

2012-04-01

In the north-west Atlantic Ocean, stock assessments conducted for some commercially harvested coastal sharks indicate declines from 64 to 80% with respect to virgin population levels. While the status of commercially important species is available, abundance trend information for other coastal shark species in the north-west Atlantic Ocean are unavailable. Using a generalized linear modelling (GLM) approach, a relative abundance index was derived from 1994 to 2009 using observer data collected in a commercial bottom longline fishery. Trends in abundance and average size were estimated for bull shark Carcharhinus leucas, spinner shark Carcharhinus brevipinna, tiger shark Galeocerdo cuvier and lemon shark Negaprion brevirostris. Increases in relative abundance for all shark species ranged from 14% for C. brevipinna, 12% for C. leucas, 6% for N. brevirostris and 3% for G. cuvier. There was no significant change in the size at capture over the time period considered for all species. While the status of shark populations should not be based exclusively on abundance trend information, but ultimately on stock assessment models, results from this study provide some cause for optimism on the status of these coastal shark species. Published 2012. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Seasonal patterns of aster leafhopper (Hemiptera: Cicadellidae) abundance and aster yellows phytoplasma infectivity in Wisconsin carrot fields.

PubMed

Frost, K E; Esker, P D; Van Haren, R; Kotolski, L; Groves, R L

2013-06-01

In Wisconsin, vegetable crops are threatened annually by the aster yellows phytoplasma (AYp), which is obligately transmitted by the aster leafhopper. Using a multiyear, multilocation data set, seasonal patterns of leafhopper abundance and infectivity were modeled. A seasonal aster yellows index (AYI) was deduced from the model abundance and infectivity predictions to represent the expected seasonal risk of pathogen transmission by infectious aster leafhoppers. The primary goal of this study was to identify periods of time during the growing season when crop protection practices could be targeted to reduce the risk of AYp spread. Based on abundance and infectivity, the annual exposure of the carrot crop to infectious leafhoppers varied by 16- and 70-fold, respectively. Together, this corresponded to an estimated 1,000-fold difference in exposure to infectious leafhoppers. Within a season, exposure of the crop to infectious aster leafhoppers (Macrosteles quadrilineatus Forbes), varied threefold because of abundance and ninefold because of infectivity. Periods of above average aster leafhopper abundance occurred between 11 June and 2 August and above average infectivity occurred between 27 May and 13 July. A more comprehensive description of the temporal trends of aster leafhopper abundance and infectivity provides new information defining when the aster leafhopper moves into susceptible crop fields and when they transmit the pathogen to susceptible crops.

Evaluation of methods to estimate lake herring spawner abundance in Lake Superior

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yule, D.L.; Stockwell, J.D.; Cholwek, G.A.; Evrard, L.M.; Schram, S.; Seider, M.; Symbal, M.

2006-01-01

Historically, commercial fishers harvested Lake Superior lake herring Coregonus artedi for their flesh, but recently operators have targeted lake herring for roe. Because no surveys have estimated spawning female abundance, direct estimates of fishing mortality are lacking. The primary objective of this study was to determine the feasibility of using acoustic techniques in combination with midwater trawling to estimate spawning female lake herring densities in a Lake Superior statistical grid (i.e., a 10′ latitude × 10′ longitude area over which annual commercial harvest statistics are compiled). Midwater trawling showed that mature female lake herring were largely pelagic during the night in late November, accounting for 94.5% of all fish caught exceeding 250 mm total length. When calculating acoustic estimates of mature female lake herring, we excluded backscattering from smaller pelagic fishes like immature lake herring and rainbow smelt Osmerus mordax by applying an empirically derived threshold of −35.6 dB. We estimated the average density of mature females in statistical grid 1409 at 13.3 fish/ha and the total number of spawning females at 227,600 (95% confidence interval = 172,500–282,700). Using information on mature female densities, size structure, and fecundity, we estimate that females deposited 3.027 billion (109) eggs in grid 1409 (95% confidence interval = 2.356–3.778 billion). The relative estimation error of the mature female density estimate derived using a geostatistical model—based approach was low (12.3%), suggesting that the employed method was robust. Fishing mortality rates of all mature females and their eggs were estimated at 2.3% and 3.8%, respectively. The techniques described for enumerating spawning female lake herring could be used to develop a more accurate stock–recruitment model for Lake Superior lake herring.

Population growth rates of reef sharks with and without fishing on the great barrier reef: robust estimation with multiple models.

PubMed

Hisano, Mizue; Connolly, Sean R; Robbins, William D

2011-01-01

Overfishing of sharks is a global concern, with increasing numbers of species threatened by overfishing. For many sharks, both catch rates and underwater visual surveys have been criticized as indices of abundance. In this context, estimation of population trends using individual demographic rates provides an important alternative means of assessing population status. However, such estimates involve uncertainties that must be appropriately characterized to credibly and effectively inform conservation efforts and management. Incorporating uncertainties into population assessment is especially important when key demographic rates are obtained via indirect methods, as is often the case for mortality rates of marine organisms subject to fishing. Here, focusing on two reef shark species on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia, we estimated natural and total mortality rates using several indirect methods, and determined the population growth rates resulting from each. We used bootstrapping to quantify the uncertainty associated with each estimate, and to evaluate the extent of agreement between estimates. Multiple models produced highly concordant natural and total mortality rates, and associated population growth rates, once the uncertainties associated with the individual estimates were taken into account. Consensus estimates of natural and total population growth across multiple models support the hypothesis that these species are declining rapidly due to fishing, in contrast to conclusions previously drawn from catch rate trends. Moreover, quantitative projections of abundance differences on fished versus unfished reefs, based on the population growth rate estimates, are comparable to those found in previous studies using underwater visual surveys. These findings appear to justify management actions to substantially reduce the fishing mortality of reef sharks. They also highlight the potential utility of rigorously characterizing uncertainty, and applying multiple assessment methods, to obtain robust estimates of population trends in species threatened by overfishing.

Population Growth Rates of Reef Sharks with and without Fishing on the Great Barrier Reef: Robust Estimation with Multiple Models

PubMed Central

Hisano, Mizue; Connolly, Sean R.; Robbins, William D.

2011-01-01

Overfishing of sharks is a global concern, with increasing numbers of species threatened by overfishing. For many sharks, both catch rates and underwater visual surveys have been criticized as indices of abundance. In this context, estimation of population trends using individual demographic rates provides an important alternative means of assessing population status. However, such estimates involve uncertainties that must be appropriately characterized to credibly and effectively inform conservation efforts and management. Incorporating uncertainties into population assessment is especially important when key demographic rates are obtained via indirect methods, as is often the case for mortality rates of marine organisms subject to fishing. Here, focusing on two reef shark species on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia, we estimated natural and total mortality rates using several indirect methods, and determined the population growth rates resulting from each. We used bootstrapping to quantify the uncertainty associated with each estimate, and to evaluate the extent of agreement between estimates. Multiple models produced highly concordant natural and total mortality rates, and associated population growth rates, once the uncertainties associated with the individual estimates were taken into account. Consensus estimates of natural and total population growth across multiple models support the hypothesis that these species are declining rapidly due to fishing, in contrast to conclusions previously drawn from catch rate trends. Moreover, quantitative projections of abundance differences on fished versus unfished reefs, based on the population growth rate estimates, are comparable to those found in previous studies using underwater visual surveys. These findings appear to justify management actions to substantially reduce the fishing mortality of reef sharks. They also highlight the potential utility of rigorously characterizing uncertainty, and applying multiple assessment methods, to obtain robust estimates of population trends in species threatened by overfishing. PMID:21966402

ICPD-A New Peak Detection Algorithm for LC/MS

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background The identification and quantification of proteins using label-free Liquid Chromatography/Mass Spectrometry (LC/MS) play crucial roles in biological and biomedical research. Increasing evidence has shown that biomarkers are often low abundance proteins. However, LC/MS systems are subject to considerable noise and sample variability, whose statistical characteristics are still elusive, making computational identification of low abundance proteins extremely challenging. As a result, the inability of identifying low abundance proteins in a proteomic study is the main bottleneck in protein biomarker discovery. Results In this paper, we propose a new peak detection method called Information Combining Peak Detection (ICPD ) for high resolution LC/MS. In LC/MS, peptides elute during a certain time period and as a result, peptide isotope patterns are registered in multiple MS scans. The key feature of the new algorithm is that the observed isotope patterns registered in multiple scans are combined together for estimating the likelihood of the peptide existence. An isotope pattern matching score based on the likelihood probability is provided and utilized for peak detection. Conclusions The performance of the new algorithm is evaluated based on protein standards with 48 known proteins. The evaluation shows better peak detection accuracy for low abundance proteins than other LC/MS peak detection methods. PMID:21143790

Estimation of demographic parameters in a tiger population from long-term camera trap data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Karanth, K. Ullas; Nichols, James D.; O'Connell, Allan F.; Nichols, James D.; Karanth, K. Ullas

2011-01-01

Chapter 7 (Karanth et al.) illustrated the use of camera trapping in combination with closed population capture–recapture (CR) models to estimate densities of tigers Panthera tigris. Such estimates can be very useful for investigating variation across space for a particular species (e.g., Karanth et al. 2004) or variation among species at a specific location. In addition, estimates of density continued at the same site(s) over multiple years are very useful for understanding and managing populations of large carnivores. Such multi-year studies can yield estimates of rates of change in abundance. Additionally, because the fates of marked individuals are tracked through time, biologists can delve deeper into factors driving changes in abundance such as rates of survival, recruitment and movement (Williams et al. 2002). Fortunately, modern CR approaches permit the modeling of populations that change between sampling occasions as a result of births, deaths, immigration and emigration (Pollock et al. 1990; Nichols 1992). Some of these early “open population” models focused on estimation of survival rates and, to a lesser extent, abundance, but more recent models permit estimation of recruitment and movement rates as well.

Novel Application of Confocal Laser Scanning Microscopy and 3D Volume Rendering toward Improving the Resolution of the Fossil Record of Charcoal

PubMed Central

Belcher, Claire M.; Punyasena, Surangi W.; Sivaguru, Mayandi

2013-01-01

Variations in the abundance of fossil charcoals between rocks and sediments are assumed to reflect changes in fire activity in Earth’s past. These variations in fire activity are often considered to be in response to environmental, ecological or climatic changes. The role that fire plays in feedbacks to such changes is becoming increasingly important to understand and highlights the need to create robust estimates of variations in fossil charcoal abundance. The majority of charcoal based fire reconstructions quantify the abundance of charcoal particles and do not consider the changes in the morphology of the individual particles that may have occurred due to fragmentation as part of their transport history. We have developed a novel application of confocal laser scanning microscopy coupled to image processing that enables the 3-dimensional reconstruction of individual charcoal particles. This method is able to measure the volume of both microfossil and mesofossil charcoal particles and allows the abundance of charcoal in a sample to be expressed as total volume of charcoal. The method further measures particle surface area and shape allowing both relationships between different size and shape metrics to be analysed and full consideration of variations in particle size and size sorting between different samples to be studied. We believe application of this new imaging approach could allow significant improvement in our ability to estimate variations in past fire activity using fossil charcoals. PMID:23977267

Characterizing and quantifying superparamagnetic magnetite particles in serpentinized mantle peridotite observed in continental ophiolite complexes.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ortiz, E.; Vento, N. F. R.; Tominaga, M.; Beinlich, A.; Einsle, J. F.; Buisman, I.; Ringe, E.; Schrenk, M. O.; Cardace, D.

2017-12-01

Serpentinization of mantle peridotite has been recognized as one of the most important energy factories for the deep biosphere. To better evaluate the habitability of the deep biosphere, it is crucial to understand the link between in situ peridotite serpentinization processes and associated magnetite and hydrogen production. Previous efforts in correlating magnetite and hydrogen production during serpentinization processes are based primarily on laboratory experiments and numerical modeling, being challenged to include the contribution of superparamagnetic-sized magnetites (i.e., extremely fine-grained magnetite, petrographically observed as a "pepper flake" like texture in many natural serpentinized rock samples). To better estimate the abundance of superparamagnetic grains, we conducted frequency-dependent susceptibility magnetic measurements at the Institute of Rock Magnetism on naturally serpentinized rock samples from the Coast Range Ophiolite Microbial Observatory (CROMO) in California, USA and the Atlin Ophiolite (British Columbia). In addition, we conducted multiscale EDS phase mapping, BackScattered Electron (BSE) scanning, FIB-nanotomography and STEM-EELS to identify and quantify the superparamagnetic minerals that contribute to the measured magnetic susceptibility signals in our rock samples. Utilizing a multidisciplinary approach, we aim to improve the estimation of hydrogen production based on the abundance of magnetite, that includes the contribution of superparamagnetic particle size magnetite, to ultimately provide a more accurate estimation of bulk deep-biomass hosted by in situ serpentinization processes.

Cultural traditions across a migratory network shape the genetic structure of southern right whales around Australia and New Zealand.

PubMed

Carroll, E L; Baker, C S; Watson, M; Alderman, R; Bannister, J; Gaggiotti, O E; Gröcke, D R; Patenaude, N; Harcourt, R

2015-11-09

Fidelity to migratory destinations is an important driver of connectivity in marine and avian species. Here we assess the role of maternally directed learning of migratory habitats, or migratory culture, on the population structure of the endangered Australian and New Zealand southern right whale. Using DNA profiles, comprising mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) haplotypes (500 bp), microsatellite genotypes (17 loci) and sex from 128 individually-identified whales, we find significant differentiation among winter calving grounds based on both mtDNA haplotype (FST = 0.048, ΦST = 0.109, p < 0.01) and microsatellite allele frequencies (FST = 0.008, p < 0.01), consistent with long-term fidelity to calving areas. However, most genetic comparisons of calving grounds and migratory corridors were not significant, supporting the idea that whales from different calving grounds mix in migratory corridors. Furthermore, we find a significant relationship between δ(13)C stable isotope profiles of 66 Australian southern right whales, a proxy for feeding ground location, and both mtDNA haplotypes and kinship inferred from microsatellite-based estimators of relatedness. This indicates migratory culture may influence genetic structure on feeding grounds. This fidelity to migratory destinations is likely to influence population recovery, as long-term estimates of historical abundance derived from estimates of genetic diversity indicate the South Pacific calving grounds remain at <10% of pre-whaling abundance.

Hierarchical distance-sampling models to estimate population size and habitat-specific abundance of an island endemic

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sillett, Scott T.; Chandler, Richard B.; Royle, J. Andrew; Kéry, Marc; Morrison, Scott A.

2012-01-01

Population size and habitat-specific abundance estimates are essential for conservation management. A major impediment to obtaining such estimates is that few statistical models are able to simultaneously account for both spatial variation in abundance and heterogeneity in detection probability, and still be amenable to large-scale applications. The hierarchical distance-sampling model of J. A. Royle, D. K. Dawson, and S. Bates provides a practical solution. Here, we extend this model to estimate habitat-specific abundance and rangewide population size of a bird species of management concern, the Island Scrub-Jay (Aphelocoma insularis), which occurs solely on Santa Cruz Island, California, USA. We surveyed 307 randomly selected, 300 m diameter, point locations throughout the 250-km2 island during October 2008 and April 2009. Population size was estimated to be 2267 (95% CI 1613-3007) and 1705 (1212-2369) during the fall and spring respectively, considerably lower than a previously published but statistically problematic estimate of 12 500. This large discrepancy emphasizes the importance of proper survey design and analysis for obtaining reliable information for management decisions. Jays were most abundant in low-elevation chaparral habitat; the detection function depended primarily on the percent cover of chaparral and forest within count circles. Vegetation change on the island has been dramatic in recent decades, due to release from herbivory following the eradication of feral sheep (Ovis aries) from the majority of the island in the mid-1980s. We applied best-fit fall and spring models of habitat-specific jay abundance to a vegetation map from 1985, and estimated the population size of A. insularis was 1400-1500 at that time. The 20-30% increase in the jay population suggests that the species has benefited from the recovery of native vegetation since sheep removal. Nevertheless, this jay's tiny range and small population size make it vulnerable to natural disasters and to habitat alteration related to climate change. Our results demonstrate that hierarchical distance-sampling models hold promise for estimating population size and spatial density variation at large scales. Our statistical methods have been incorporated into the R package unmarked to facilitate their use by animal ecologists, and we provide annotated code in the Supplement.

Estimating the breeding population of long-billed curlew in the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stanley, T.R.; Skagen, S.K.

2007-01-01

Determining population size and long-term trends in population size for species of high concern is a priority of international, national, and regional conservation plans. Long-billed curlews (Numenius americanus) are a species of special concern in North America due to apparent declines in their population. Because long-billed curlews are not adequately monitored by existing programs, we undertook a 2-year study with the goals of 1) determining present long-billed curlew distribution and breeding population size in the United States and 2) providing recommendations for a long-term long-billed curlew monitoring protocol. We selected a stratified random sample of survey routes in 16 western states for sampling in 2004 and 2005, and we analyzed count data from these routes to estimate detection probabilities and abundance. In addition, we evaluated habitat along roadsides to determine how well roadsides represented habitat throughout the sampling units. We estimated there were 164,515 (SE = 42,047) breeding long-billed curlews in 2004, and 109,533 (SE = 31,060) breeding individuals in 2005. These estimates far exceed currently accepted estimates based on expert opinion. We found that habitat along roadsides was representative of long-billed curlew habitat in general. We make recommendations for improving sampling methodology, and we present power curves to provide guidance on minimum sample sizes required to detect trends in abundance.

Estimating abundance while accounting for rarity, correlated behavior, and other sources of variation in counts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dorazio, Robert M.; Martin, Juulien; Edwards, Holly H.

2013-01-01

The class of N-mixture models allows abundance to be estimated from repeated, point count surveys while adjusting for imperfect detection of individuals. We developed an extension of N-mixture models to account for two commonly observed phenomena in point count surveys: rarity and lack of independence induced by unmeasurable sources of variation in the detectability of individuals. Rarity increases the number of locations with zero detections in excess of those expected under simple models of abundance (e.g., Poisson or negative binomial). Correlated behavior of individuals and other phenomena, though difficult to measure, increases the variation in detection probabilities among surveys. Our extension of N-mixture models includes a hurdle model of abundance and a beta-binomial model of detectability that accounts for additional (extra-binomial) sources of variation in detections among surveys. As an illustration, we fit this model to repeated point counts of the West Indian manatee, which was observed in a pilot study using aerial surveys. Our extension of N-mixture models provides increased flexibility. The effects of different sets of covariates may be estimated for the probability of occurrence of a species, for its mean abundance at occupied locations, and for its detectability.

Estimating abundance while accounting for rarity, correlated behavior, and other sources of variation in counts.

PubMed

Dorazio, Robert M; Martin, Julien; Edwards, Holly H

2013-07-01

The class of N-mixture models allows abundance to be estimated from repeated, point count surveys while adjusting for imperfect detection of individuals. We developed an extension of N-mixture models to account for two commonly observed phenomena in point count surveys: rarity and lack of independence induced by unmeasurable sources of variation in the detectability of individuals. Rarity increases the number of locations with zero detections in excess of those expected under simple models of abundance (e.g., Poisson or negative binomial). Correlated behavior of individuals and other phenomena, though difficult to measure, increases the variation in detection probabilities among surveys. Our extension of N-mixture models includes a hurdle model of abundance and a beta-binomial model of detectability that accounts for additional (extra-binomial) sources of variation in detections among surveys. As an illustration, we fit this model to repeated point counts of the West Indian manatee, which was observed in a pilot study using aerial surveys. Our extension of N-mixture models provides increased flexibility. The effects of different sets of covariates may be estimated for the probability of occurrence of a species, for its mean abundance at occupied locations, and for its detectability.

C/O ratios of stars with transiting hot Jupiter exoplanets ,

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Teske, Johanna K.; Cunha, Katia; Smith, Verne V.

The relative abundances of carbon and oxygen have long been recognized as fundamental diagnostics of stellar chemical evolution. Now, the growing number of exoplanet observations enable estimation of these elements in exoplanetary atmospheres. In hot Jupiters, the C/O ratio affects the partitioning of carbon in the major observable molecules, making these elements diagnostic of temperature structure and composition. Here we present measurements of carbon and oxygen abundances in 16 stars that host transiting hot Jupiter exoplanets, and we compare our C/O ratios to those measured in larger samples of host stars, as well as those estimated for the corresponding exoplanetmore » atmospheres. With standard stellar abundance analysis we derive stellar parameters as well as [C/H] and [O/H] from multiple abundance indicators, including synthesis fitting of the [O I] λ6300 line and non-LTE corrections for the O I triplet. Our results, in agreement with recent suggestions, indicate that previously measured exoplanet host star C/O ratios may have been overestimated. The mean transiting exoplanet host star C/O ratio from this sample is 0.54 (C/O{sub ☉} = 0.54), versus previously measured C/O{sub host} {sub star} means of ∼0.65-0.75. We also observe the increase in C/O with [Fe/H] expected for all stars based on Galactic chemical evolution; a linear fit to our results falls slightly below that of other exoplanet host star studies but has a similar slope. Though the C/O ratios of even the most-observed exoplanets are still uncertain, the more precise abundance analysis possible right now for their host stars can help constrain these planets' formation environments and current compositions.« less

A multimodal detection model of dolphins to estimate abundance validated by field experiments.

PubMed

Akamatsu, Tomonari; Ura, Tamaki; Sugimatsu, Harumi; Bahl, Rajendar; Behera, Sandeep; Panda, Sudarsan; Khan, Muntaz; Kar, S K; Kar, C S; Kimura, Satoko; Sasaki-Yamamoto, Yukiko

2013-09-01

Abundance estimation of marine mammals requires matching of detection of an animal or a group of animal by two independent means. A multimodal detection model using visual and acoustic cues (surfacing and phonation) that enables abundance estimation of dolphins is proposed. The method does not require a specific time window to match the cues of both means for applying mark-recapture method. The proposed model was evaluated using data obtained in field observations of Ganges River dolphins and Irrawaddy dolphins, as examples of dispersed and condensed distributions of animals, respectively. The acoustic detection probability was approximately 80%, 20% higher than that of visual detection for both species, regardless of the distribution of the animals in present study sites. The abundance estimates of Ganges River dolphins and Irrawaddy dolphins fairly agreed with the numbers reported in previous monitoring studies. The single animal detection probability was smaller than that of larger cluster size, as predicted by the model and confirmed by field data. However, dense groups of Irrawaddy dolphins showed difference in cluster sizes observed by visual and acoustic methods. Lower detection probability of single clusters of this species seemed to be caused by the clumped distribution of this species.

CHEERS: Chemical enrichment of clusters of galaxies measured using a large XMM-Newton sample

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Plaa, J.; Mernier, F.; Kaastra, J.; Pinto, C.

2017-10-01

The Chemical Enrichment RGS Sample (CHEERS) is aimed to be a sample of the most optimal clusters of galaxies for observation with the Reflection Grating Spectrometer (RGS) aboard XMM-Newton. It consists of 5 Ms of deep cluster observations of 44 objects obtained through a very large program and archival observations. The main goal is to measure chemical abundances in the hot Intra-Cluster Medium (ICM) of clusters to provide constraints on chemical evolution models. Especially the origin and evolution of type Ia supernovae is still poorly known and X-ray observations could contribute to constrain models regarding the SNIa explosion mechanism. Due to the high quality of the data, the uncertainties on the abundances are dominated by systematic effects. By carefully treating each systematic effect, we increase the accuracy or estimate the remaining uncertainty on the measurement. The resulting abundances are then compared to supernova models. In addition, also radial abundance profiles are derived. In the talk, we present an overview of the results that the CHEERS collaboration obtained based on the CHEERS data. We focus on the abundance measurements. The other topics range from turbulence measurements through line broadening to cool gas in groups.

Estimation and modeling of electrofishing capture efficiency for fishes in wadeable warmwater streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Price, A.; Peterson, James T.

2010-01-01

Stream fish managers often use fish sample data to inform management decisions affecting fish populations. Fish sample data, however, can be biased by the same factors affecting fish populations. To minimize the effect of sample biases on decision making, biologists need information on the effectiveness of fish sampling methods. We evaluated single-pass backpack electrofishing and seining combined with electrofishing by following a dual-gear, mark–recapture approach in 61 blocknetted sample units within first- to third-order streams. We also estimated fish movement out of unblocked units during sampling. Capture efficiency and fish abundances were modeled for 50 fish species by use of conditional multinomial capture–recapture models. The best-approximating models indicated that capture efficiencies were generally low and differed among species groups based on family or genus. Efficiencies of single-pass electrofishing and seining combined with electrofishing were greatest for Catostomidae and lowest for Ictaluridae. Fish body length and stream habitat characteristics (mean cross-sectional area, wood density, mean current velocity, and turbidity) also were related to capture efficiency of both methods, but the effects differed among species groups. We estimated that, on average, 23% of fish left the unblocked sample units, but net movement varied among species. Our results suggest that (1) common warmwater stream fish sampling methods have low capture efficiency and (2) failure to adjust for incomplete capture may bias estimates of fish abundance. We suggest that managers minimize bias from incomplete capture by adjusting data for site- and species-specific capture efficiency and by choosing sampling gear that provide estimates with minimal bias and variance. Furthermore, if block nets are not used, we recommend that managers adjust the data based on unconditional capture efficiency.

Standardizing the double-observer survey method for estimating mountain ungulate prey of the endangered snow leopard.

PubMed

Suryawanshi, Kulbhushansingh R; Bhatnagar, Yash Veer; Mishra, Charudutt

2012-07-01

Mountain ungulates around the world have been threatened by illegal hunting, habitat modification, increased livestock grazing, disease and development. Mountain ungulates play an important functional role in grasslands as primary consumers and as prey for wild carnivores, and monitoring of their populations is important for conservation purposes. However, most of the several currently available methods of estimating wild ungulate abundance are either difficult to implement or too expensive for mountainous terrain. A rigorous method of sampling ungulate abundance in mountainous areas that can allow for some measure of sampling error is therefore much needed. To this end, we used a combination of field data and computer simulations to test the critical assumptions associated with double-observer technique based on capture-recapture theory. The technique was modified and adapted to estimate the populations of bharal (Pseudois nayaur) and ibex (Capra sibirica) at five different sites. Conducting the two double-observer surveys simultaneously led to underestimation of the population by 15%. We therefore recommend separating the surveys in space or time. The overall detection probability for the two observers was 0.74 and 0.79. Our surveys estimated mountain ungulate populations (± 95% confidence interval) of 735 (± 44), 580 (± 46), 509 (± 53), 184 (± 40) and 30 (± 14) individuals at the five sites, respectively. A detection probability of 0.75 was found to be sufficient to detect a change of 20% in populations of >420 individuals. Based on these results, we believe that this method is sufficiently precise for scientific and conservation purposes and therefore recommend the use of the double-observer approach (with the two surveys separated in time or space) for the estimation and monitoring of mountain ungulate populations.

Abundance Trends and Status of the Little Colorado River Population of Humpback Chub: An Update Considering 1989-2006 Data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coggins,, Lewis G.

2008-01-01

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY In 1967, the humpback chub (Gila cypha) (HBC) was added to the federal list of endangered species and is today protected under the Endangered Species Act of 1973. Only six populations of humpback chub are currently known to exist, five in the Colorado River Basin above Lees Ferry, Arizona, and one in Grand Canyon, Arizona. The majority of Grand Canyon humpback chub are found in the Little Colorado River (LCR)-the largest tributary to the Colorado River in Grand Canyon-and the Colorado River near its confluence with the Little Colorado River. Monitoring and research of the Grand Canyon humpback chub population is overseen by the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center (GCMRC) under the auspices of the Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program (GCDAMP), a Federal initiative to protect and improve resources downstream of Glen Canyon Dam. This report provides updated information on the status and trends of the LCR population in light of new information and refined assessment methodology. An earlier assessment of the LCR population (Coggins and others, 2006a) used data collected during 1989?2002; the assessment provided here includes that data and additional data collected through 2006. Catch-rate indices, closed population mark-recapture model abundance estimates, results from the original age-structured mark recapture (ASMR) model (Coggins and others, 2006b), and a newly refined ASMR model are presented. This report also seeks to (1) formally evaluate alternative stock assessment models using Pearson residual analyses and information theoretic procedures, (2) use mark-recapture data to estimate the relationship between HBC age and length, (3) translate uncertainty in the assignment of individual fish age to resulting estimates of recruitment and abundance from the ASMR model, and (4) evaluate past and present stock assessments considering the available data sources and analyses, recognizing the limitations inherent in both. A major task of this study was to improve the overall methodology used to conduct HBC stock assessment by addressing concerns identified in an independent review conducted in 2003 (Kitchell and others, 2003). The review report identified that the current technique of assigning age to individual fish based on length was a potential source of bias in ASMR estimates of abundance and recruitment, and called for a more complete examination of this potential error source. Additionally, the review suggested that further work to develop procedures to better arbitrate among alternative assessment models (e.g., ASMR 1?3) would be beneficial. To address the first of the concerns identified by the independent review, this study uses mark-recapture data to develop a temperature-dependent growth model to characterize the relationship between HBC age and length. This model attempts to account for temperature differences resulting from both ontogenetic habitat shifts between the Little Colorado and the mainstem Colorado Rivers as well as seasonal variation in water temperature within the LCR. The resulting growth model is then used to characterize the error in assigning age to individual fish based on length. Results presented in this study suggest that ageing error does not result in large bias in either abundance or recruitment estimates from the ASMR model. However, incorporating ageing error into the assessment does result in less precise estimates, particularly for recruitment. To address the second concern brought forward in the review report related to model selection procedures, this study arbitrated among the competing models by both examining model fit using Pearson residual analyses and considering information theoretic measures. Although adult abundance estimates and trend varied little among all models considered, these procedures identified ASMR 3 as the model whose underlying assumptions were most consistent with the data. Because ASMR 3 is

Use of airborne hyperspectral data to estimate residual heavy metal contamination and acidification potential in the Guadiamar floodplain Andalusia, Spain after the Aznacollar mining accident

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kemper, Thomas; Sommer, Stefan

2004-10-01

Field and airborne hyperspectral data was used to map residual contamination after a mining accident, by applying spectral mixture modelling. Test case was the Aznalcollar Mine (Southern Spain) accident, where heavy metal bearing sludge from a tailings pond was distributed over large areas of the Guadiamar flood plain. Although the sludge and the contaminated topsoils have been removed mechanically in the whole affected area, still high abundance of pyritic material remained on the ground. During dedicated field campaigns in two subsequent years soil samples were collected for geochemical and spectral laboratory analysis and spectral field measurements were carried out in parallel to data acquisition with the HyMap sensor. A Variable Multiple Endmember Spectral Mixture Analysis (VMESMA) tool was used providing possibilities of multiple endmember unmixing, aiming to estimate the quantities and distribution of the remaining tailings material. A spectrally based zonal partition of the area was introduced to allow the application of different submodels to the selected areas. Based on an iterative feedback process, the unmixing performance could be improved in each stage until an optimum level was reached. The sludge abundances obtained by unmixing the hyperspectral spectral data were confirmed by the field observations and chemical measurements of samples taken in the area. The semi-quantitative sludge abundances of residual pyritic material could be transformed into quantitative information for an assessment of acidification risk and distribution of residual heavy metal contamination based on an artificial mixture experiment. The unmixing of the second year images allowed identification of secondary minerals of pyrite as indicators of pyrite oxidation and associated acidification.

A sampling plan for riparian birds of the Lower Colorado River-Final Report

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bart, Jonathan; Dunn, Leah; Leist, Amy

2010-01-01

A sampling plan was designed for the Bureau of Reclamation for selected riparian birds occurring along the Colorado River from Lake Mead to the southerly International Boundary with Mexico. The goals of the sampling plan were to estimate long-term trends in abundance and investigate habitat relationships especially in new habitat being created by the Bureau of Reclamation. The initial objective was to design a plan for the Gila Woodpecker (Melanerpes uropygialis), Arizona Bell's Vireo (Vireo bellii arizonae), Sonoran Yellow Warbler (Dendroica petechia sonorana), Summer Tanager (Piranga rubra), Gilded Flicker (Colaptes chrysoides), and Vermilion Flycatcher (Pyrocephalus rubinus); however, too little data were obtained for the last two species. Recommendations were therefore based on results for the first four species. The study area was partitioned into plots of 7 to 23 hectares. Plot borders were drawn to place the best habitat for the focal species in the smallest number of plots so that survey efforts could be concentrated on these habitats. Double sampling was used in the survey. In this design, a large sample of plots is surveyed a single time, yielding estimates of unknown accuracy, and a subsample is surveyed intensively to obtain accurate estimates. The subsample is used to estimate detection ratios, which are then applied to the results from the extensive survey to obtain unbiased estimates of density and population size. These estimates are then used to estimate long-term trends in abundance. Four sampling plans for selecting plots were evaluated based on a simulation using data from the Breeding Bird Survey. The design with the highest power involved selecting new plots every year. Power with 80 plots surveyed per year was more than 80 percent for three of the four species. Results from the surveys were used to provide recommendations to the Bureau of Reclamation for their surveys of new habitat being created in the study area.

Population trends, survival, and sampling methodologies for a population of Rana draytonii

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fellers, Gary M.; Kleeman, Patrick M.; Miller, David A.W.; Halstead, Brian J.

2017-01-01

Estimating population trends provides valuable information for resource managers, but monitoring programs face trade-offs between the quality and quantity of information gained and the number of sites surveyed. We compared the effectiveness of monitoring techniques for estimating population trends of Rana draytonii (California Red-legged Frog) at Point Reyes National Seashore, California, USA, over a 13-yr period. Our primary goals were to: 1) estimate trends for a focal pond at Point Reyes National Seashore, and 2) evaluate whether egg mass counts could reliably estimate an index of abundance relative to more-intensive capture–mark–recapture methods. Capture–mark–recapture (CMR) surveys of males indicated a stable population from 2005 to 2009, despite low annual apparent survival (26.3%). Egg mass counts from 2000 to 2012 indicated that despite some large fluctuations, the breeding female population was generally stable or increasing, with annual abundance varying between 26 and 130 individuals. Minor modifications to egg mass counts, such as marking egg masses, can allow estimation of egg mass detection probabilities necessary to convert counts to abundance estimates, even when closure of egg mass abundance cannot be assumed within a breeding season. High egg mass detection probabilities (mean per-survey detection probability = 0.98 [0.89–0.99]) indicate that egg mass surveys can be an efficient and reliable method for monitoring population trends of federally threatened R. draytonii. Combining egg mass surveys to estimate trends at many sites with CMR methods to evaluate factors affecting adult survival at focal populations is likely a profitable path forward to enhance understanding and conservation of R. draytonii.

[Sampling optimization for tropical invertebrates: an example using dung beetles (Coleoptera: Scarabaeinae) in Venezuela].

PubMed

Ferrer-Paris, José Rafael; Sánchez-Mercado, Ada; Rodríguez, Jon Paul

2013-03-01

The development of efficient sampling protocols is an essential prerequisite to evaluate and identify priority conservation areas. There are f ew protocols for fauna inventory and monitoring in wide geographical scales for the tropics, where the complexity of communities and high biodiversity levels, make the implementation of efficient protocols more difficult. We proposed here a simple strategy to optimize the capture of dung beetles, applied to sampling with baited traps and generalizable to other sampling methods. We analyzed data from eight transects sampled between 2006-2008 withthe aim to develop an uniform sampling design, that allows to confidently estimate species richness, abundance and composition at wide geographical scales. We examined four characteristics of any sampling design that affect the effectiveness of the sampling effort: the number of traps, sampling duration, type and proportion of bait, and spatial arrangement of the traps along transects. We used species accumulation curves, rank-abundance plots, indicator species analysis, and multivariate correlograms. We captured 40 337 individuals (115 species/morphospecies of 23 genera). Most species were attracted by both dung and carrion, but two thirds had greater relative abundance in traps baited with human dung. Different aspects of the sampling design influenced each diversity attribute in different ways. To obtain reliable richness estimates, the number of traps was the most important aspect. Accurate abundance estimates were obtained when the sampling period was increased, while the spatial arrangement of traps was determinant to capture the species composition pattern. An optimum sampling strategy for accurate estimates of richness, abundance and diversity should: (1) set 50-70 traps to maximize the number of species detected, (2) get samples during 48-72 hours and set trap groups along the transect to reliably estimate species abundance, (3) set traps in groups of at least 10 traps to suitably record the local species composition, and (4) separate trap groups by a distance greater than 5-10km to avoid spatial autocorrelation. For the evaluation of other sampling protocols we recommend to, first, identify the elements of sampling design that could affect the sampled effort (the number of traps, sampling duration, type and proportion of bait) and their spatial distribution (spatial arrangement of the traps) and then, to evaluate how they affect richness, abundance and species composition estimates.

Relating FIA data to habitat classifications via tree-based models of canopy cover

Treesearch

Mark D. Nelson; Brian G. Tavernia; Chris Toney; Brian F. Walters

2012-01-01

Wildlife species-habitat matrices are used to relate lists of species with abundance of their habitats. The Forest Inventory and Analysis Program provides data on forest composition and structure, but these attributes may not correspond directly with definitions of wildlife habitats. We used FIA tree data and tree crown diameter models to estimate canopy cover, from...

Evaluating single-pass catch as a tool for identifying spatial pattern in fish distribution

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bateman, Douglas S.; Gresswell, Robert E.; Torgersen, Christian E.

2005-01-01

We evaluate the efficacy of single-pass electrofishing without blocknets as a tool for collecting spatially continuous fish distribution data in headwater streams. We compare spatial patterns in abundance, sampling effort, and length-frequency distributions from single-pass sampling of coastal cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarki clarki) to data obtained from a more precise multiple-pass removal electrofishing method in two mid-sized (500–1000 ha) forested watersheds in western Oregon. Abundance estimates from single- and multiple-pass removal electrofishing were positively correlated in both watersheds, r = 0.99 and 0.86. There were no significant trends in capture probabilities at the watershed scale (P > 0.05). Moreover, among-sample variation in fish abundance was higher than within-sample error in both streams indicating that increased precision of unit-scale abundance estimates would provide less information on patterns of abundance than increasing the fraction of habitat units sampled. In the two watersheds, respectively, single-pass electrofishing captured 78 and 74% of the estimated population of cutthroat trout with 7 and 10% of the effort. At the scale of intermediate-sized watersheds, single-pass electrofishing exhibited a sufficient level of precision to be effective in detecting spatial patterns of cutthroat trout abundance and may be a useful tool for providing the context for investigating fish-habitat relationships at multiple scales.

Can we use ground-based measurements of HCFCs and HFCs to derive their emissions, lifetimes, and the global OH abundance?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, Q.; Chipperfield, M.; Daniel, J. S.; Burkholder, J. B.; Rigby, M. L.; Velders, G. J. M.

2015-12-01

The hydroxyl radical (OH) is the major oxidant in the atmosphere. Reaction with OH is the primary removal process for many non-CO2greenhouse gases (GHGs), ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) and their replacements, e.g. hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). Traditionally, the global OH abundance is inferred using the observed atmospheric rate of change for methyl chloroform (MCF). Due to the Montreal Protocol regulation, the atmospheric abundance of MCF has been decreasing rapidly to near-zero values. It is becoming critical to find an alternative reference compound to continue to provide quantitative information for the global OH abundance. Our model analysis using the NASA 3-D GEOS-5 Chemistry Climate Model suggests that the inter-hemispheric gradients (IHG) of the HCFCs and HFCs show a strong linear correlation with their global emissions. Therefore it is possible to use (i) the observed IHGs of HCFCs and HFCs to estimate their global emissions, and (ii) use the derived emissions and the observed long-term trend to calculate their lifetimes and to infer the global OH abundance. Preliminary analysis using a simple global two-box model (one box for each hemisphere) and information from the global 3-D model suggests that the quantitative relationship between IHG and global emissions varies slightly among individual compounds depending on their lifetime, their emissions history and emission fractions from the two hemispheres. While each compound shows different sensitivity to the above quantities, the combined suite of the HCFCs and HFCs provides a means to derive global OH abundance and the corresponding atmospheric lifetimes of long-lived gases with respect to OH (tOH). The fact that the OH partial lifetimes of these compounds are highly correlated, with the ratio of tOH equal to the reverse ratio of their OH thermal reaction rates at 272K, provides an additional constraint that can greatly reduce the uncertainty in the OH abundance and tOH estimates. We will use the observed IHGs and long-term trends of three major HCFCs and six major HFCs in the two-box model to derive their global emissions and atmospheric lifetimes as well as the global OH abundance. The derived global OH abundance between 2000 and 2014 will be compared with that derived using MCF for consistency.

Density Dependence, Landscape, and Weather Impacts on Aquatic Aedes japonicus japonicus (Diptera: Culicidae) Abundance Along an Urban Altitudinal Gradient.

PubMed

Chaves, Luis Fernando; Moji, Kazuhiko

2018-02-28

The Asian Bush Mosquito, Aedes (Finlaya) japonicus japonicus (Theobald) is an important globally invasive mosquito species. In comparison with other major invasive mosquitoes, relatively little is known about Ae. j. japonicus population dynamics in the field. Here, we present results from a 54-biweek long study of Ae. j. japonicus abundance in ovitraps set across the altitudinal gradient of Mt. Konpira, Nagasaki, Japan. Spatially, we found that Ae. j. japonicus fourth instar larvae (Aj4il) were more abundant at the base and top of Mt. Konpira and in ovitraps with more platykurtic water temperature (WT) distributions. In contrast, we found that temporally Aj4il were more abundant when ovitrap WT was more leptokurtic with 2 weeks of lag, and with high relative humidity SD with 2 months of lag. We also found that Aj4il were unlikely present when ovitrap WT was below 12.41°C. Parameter estimates for the Ricker model suggested that Ae. j. japonicus population growth was under density-dependence regulation, with a stable population dynamics whose fluctuations were associated with changes in ovitrap WT kurtosis and demographic stochasticity. Our results suggest that Aj4il abundance is more sensitive to temperature changes in kurtosis than mean values, potentially limiting the predictive ability of Ae. j. japonicus niche models based on the increase of average temperatures with global warming, and suggesting this mosquito species has a relatively coarse-grained response to temperature changes.

Sampling scales define occupancy and underlying occupancy-abundance relationships in animals.

PubMed

Steenweg, Robin; Hebblewhite, Mark; Whittington, Jesse; Lukacs, Paul; McKelvey, Kevin

2018-01-01

Occupancy-abundance (OA) relationships are a foundational ecological phenomenon and field of study, and occupancy models are increasingly used to track population trends and understand ecological interactions. However, these two fields of ecological inquiry remain largely isolated, despite growing appreciation of the importance of integration. For example, using occupancy models to infer trends in abundance is predicated on positive OA relationships. Many occupancy studies collect data that violate geographical closure assumptions due to the choice of sampling scales and application to mobile organisms, which may change how occupancy and abundance are related. Little research, however, has explored how different occupancy sampling designs affect OA relationships. We develop a conceptual framework for understanding how sampling scales affect the definition of occupancy for mobile organisms, which drives OA relationships. We explore how spatial and temporal sampling scales, and the choice of sampling unit (areal vs. point sampling), affect OA relationships. We develop predictions using simulations, and test them using empirical occupancy data from remote cameras on 11 medium-large mammals. Surprisingly, our simulations demonstrate that when using point sampling, OA relationships are unaffected by spatial sampling grain (i.e., cell size). In contrast, when using areal sampling (e.g., species atlas data), OA relationships are affected by spatial grain. Furthermore, OA relationships are also affected by temporal sampling scales, where the curvature of the OA relationship increases with temporal sampling duration. Our empirical results support these predictions, showing that at any given abundance, the spatial grain of point sampling does not affect occupancy estimates, but longer surveys do increase occupancy estimates. For rare species (low occupancy), estimates of occupancy will quickly increase with longer surveys, even while abundance remains constant. Our results also clearly demonstrate that occupancy for mobile species without geographical closure is not true occupancy. The independence of occupancy estimates from spatial sampling grain depends on the sampling unit. Point-sampling surveys can, however, provide unbiased estimates of occupancy for multiple species simultaneously, irrespective of home-range size. The use of occupancy for trend monitoring needs to explicitly articulate how the chosen sampling scales define occupancy and affect the occupancy-abundance relationship. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Capture-recapture abundance and survival estimates of three cetacean species in Icelandic coastal waters using trained scientist-volunteers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bertulli, Chiara G.; Guéry, Loreleï; McGinty, Niall; Suzuki, Ailie; Brannan, Naomi; Marques, Tania; Rasmussen, Marianne H.; Gimenez, Olivier

2018-01-01

Knowledge of abundance and survival of humpback whales, white-beaked dolphins and minke whales are essential to manage and conserve these species in Icelandic coastal shelf waters. Our main goal was to test the feasibility of employing inexpensive research methods (data collected by trained-scientist volunteers onboard opportunistic vessels) to assess abundance and apparent survival. No previous studies in Iceland have investigated these two demographic parameters in these three cetacean species using open capture-recapture models accounting for imperfect and possibly heterogeneous detection. A transient effect was accounted for whenever required to estimate the population of resident individuals. Identification photographs were collected by scientist-trained volunteers for 7 years (2006-2013) from onboard commercial whale-watching vessels in the coastal waters of Faxaflói (southwest coast, 4400 km2) and Skjálfandi (northeast coast, 1100 km2), Iceland. We estimated an average abundance of 83 humpback whales (Mn; 95% confidence interval: 54-130) in Skjálfandi; 238 white-beaked dolphins (La; [163-321]) in Faxaflói; and 67 minke whales (Ba; [53-82]) in Faxaflói and 24 (14-31) in Skjálfandi. We also found that apparent survival was constant for all three species (Mn: 0.52 [0.41-0.63], La: 0.79 [0.64-0.88], Ba-Faxaflói: 0.80 [0.67-0.88], Ba-Skjálfandi: 0.96 [0.60-0.99]). Our results showed inter-annual variation in abundance estimates which were small for all species, and the presence of transience for minke whales. A significant increase in abundance during the study period was solely found in minke whale data from Skjálfandi. Humpback whales and white-beaked dolphins showed lower apparent survival rates compared to similar baleen whale and dolphin populations. Our results show data collected by trained-scientist volunteers can produce viable estimates of abundance and survival although bias in the methods we employed exist and need to be addressed. With the continued increase in anthropogenic pressures on our three target populations in Iceland our results can be used by relevant stakeholders to develop appropriate conservation strategies in the region.

Estimating abundance and density of Amur tigers along the Sino-Russian border.

PubMed

Xiao, Wenhong; Feng, Limin; Mou, Pu; Miquelle, Dale G; Hebblewhite, Mark; Goldberg, Joshua F; Robinson, Hugh S; Zhao, Xiaodan; Zhou, Bo; Wang, Tianming; Ge, Jianping

2016-07-01

As an apex predator the Amur tiger (Panthera tigris altaica) could play a pivotal role in maintaining the integrity of forest ecosystems in Northeast Asia. Due to habitat loss and harvest over the past century, tigers rapidly declined in China and are now restricted to the Russian Far East and bordering habitat in nearby China. To facilitate restoration of the tiger in its historical range, reliable estimates of population size are essential to assess effectiveness of conservation interventions. Here we used camera trap data collected in Hunchun National Nature Reserve from April to June 2013 and 2014 to estimate tiger density and abundance using both maximum likelihood and Bayesian spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR) methods. A minimum of 8 individuals were detected in both sample periods and the documentation of marking behavior and reproduction suggests the presence of a resident population. Using Bayesian SECR modeling within the 11 400 km(2) state space, density estimates were 0.33 and 0.40 individuals/100 km(2) in 2013 and 2014, respectively, corresponding to an estimated abundance of 38 and 45 animals for this transboundary Sino-Russian population. In a maximum likelihood framework, we estimated densities of 0.30 and 0.24 individuals/100 km(2) corresponding to abundances of 34 and 27, in 2013 and 2014, respectively. These density estimates are comparable to other published estimates for resident Amur tiger populations in the Russian Far East. This study reveals promising signs of tiger recovery in Northeast China, and demonstrates the importance of connectivity between the Russian and Chinese populations for recovering tigers in Northeast China. © 2016 International Society of Zoological Sciences, Institute of Zoology/Chinese Academy of Sciences and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

Accounting for Subgroup Structure in Line-Transect Abundance Estimates of False Killer Whales (Pseudorca crassidens) in Hawaiian Waters

PubMed Central

Bradford, Amanda L.; Forney, Karin A.; Oleson, Erin M.; Barlow, Jay

2014-01-01

For biological populations that form aggregations (or clusters) of individuals, cluster size is an important parameter in line-transect abundance estimation and should be accurately measured. Cluster size in cetaceans has traditionally been represented as the total number of individuals in a group, but group size may be underestimated if group members are spatially diffuse. Groups of false killer whales (Pseudorca crassidens) can comprise numerous subgroups that are dispersed over tens of kilometers, leading to a spatial mismatch between a detected group and the theoretical framework of line-transect analysis. Three stocks of false killer whales are found within the U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone of the Hawaiian Islands (Hawaiian EEZ): an insular main Hawaiian Islands stock, a pelagic stock, and a Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (NWHI) stock. A ship-based line-transect survey of the Hawaiian EEZ was conducted in the summer and fall of 2010, resulting in six systematic-effort visual sightings of pelagic (n = 5) and NWHI (n = 1) false killer whale groups. The maximum number and spatial extent of subgroups per sighting was 18 subgroups and 35 km, respectively. These sightings were combined with data from similar previous surveys and analyzed within the conventional line-transect estimation framework. The detection function, mean cluster size, and encounter rate were estimated separately to appropriately incorporate data collected using different methods. Unlike previous line-transect analyses of cetaceans, subgroups were treated as the analytical cluster instead of groups because subgroups better conform to the specifications of line-transect theory. Bootstrap values (n = 5,000) of the line-transect parameters were randomly combined to estimate the variance of stock-specific abundance estimates. Hawai’i pelagic and NWHI false killer whales were estimated to number 1,552 (CV = 0.66; 95% CI = 479–5,030) and 552 (CV = 1.09; 95% CI = 97–3,123) individuals, respectively. Subgroup structure is an important factor to consider in line-transect analyses of false killer whales and other species with complex grouping patterns. PMID:24587372

Accounting for subgroup structure in line-transect abundance estimates of false killer whales (Pseudorca crassidens) in Hawaiian waters.

PubMed

Bradford, Amanda L; Forney, Karin A; Oleson, Erin M; Barlow, Jay

2014-01-01

For biological populations that form aggregations (or clusters) of individuals, cluster size is an important parameter in line-transect abundance estimation and should be accurately measured. Cluster size in cetaceans has traditionally been represented as the total number of individuals in a group, but group size may be underestimated if group members are spatially diffuse. Groups of false killer whales (Pseudorca crassidens) can comprise numerous subgroups that are dispersed over tens of kilometers, leading to a spatial mismatch between a detected group and the theoretical framework of line-transect analysis. Three stocks of false killer whales are found within the U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone of the Hawaiian Islands (Hawaiian EEZ): an insular main Hawaiian Islands stock, a pelagic stock, and a Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (NWHI) stock. A ship-based line-transect survey of the Hawaiian EEZ was conducted in the summer and fall of 2010, resulting in six systematic-effort visual sightings of pelagic (n = 5) and NWHI (n = 1) false killer whale groups. The maximum number and spatial extent of subgroups per sighting was 18 subgroups and 35 km, respectively. These sightings were combined with data from similar previous surveys and analyzed within the conventional line-transect estimation framework. The detection function, mean cluster size, and encounter rate were estimated separately to appropriately incorporate data collected using different methods. Unlike previous line-transect analyses of cetaceans, subgroups were treated as the analytical cluster instead of groups because subgroups better conform to the specifications of line-transect theory. Bootstrap values (n = 5,000) of the line-transect parameters were randomly combined to estimate the variance of stock-specific abundance estimates. Hawai'i pelagic and NWHI false killer whales were estimated to number 1,552 (CV = 0.66; 95% CI = 479-5,030) and 552 (CV = 1.09; 95% CI = 97-3,123) individuals, respectively. Subgroup structure is an important factor to consider in line-transect analyses of false killer whales and other species with complex grouping patterns.

Estimating abundance without recaptures of marked pallid sturgeon in the Mississippi River.

PubMed

Friedenberg, Nicholas A; Hoover, Jan Jeffrey; Boysen, Krista; Killgore, K Jack

2018-04-01

Abundance estimates are essential for assessing the viability of populations and the risks posed by alternative management actions. An effort to estimate abundance via a repeated mark-recapture experiment may fail to recapture marked individuals. We devised a method for obtaining lower bounds on abundance in the absence of recaptures for both panmictic and spatially structured populations. The method assumes few enough recaptures were expected to be missed by random chance. The upper Bayesian credible limit on expected recaptures allows probabilistic statements about the minimum number of individuals present in the population. We applied this method to data from a 12-year survey of pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus) in the lower and middle Mississippi River (U.S.A.). None of the 241 individuals marked was recaptured in the survey. After accounting for survival and movement, our model-averaged estimate of the total abundance of pallid sturgeon ≥3 years old in the study area had a 1%, 5%, or 25% chance of being <4,600, 7,000, or 15,000, respectively. When we assumed fish were distributed in proportion to survey catch per unit effort, the farthest downstream reach in the survey hosted at least 4.5-15 fish per river kilometer (rkm), whereas the remainder of the reaches in the lower and middle Mississippi River hosted at least 2.6-8.5 fish/rkm for all model variations examined. The lower Mississippi River had an average density of pallid sturgeon ≥3 years old of at least 3.0-9.8 fish/rkm. The choice of Bayesian prior was the largest source of uncertainty we considered but did not alter the order of magnitude of lower bounds. Nil-recapture estimates of abundance are highly uncertain and require careful communication but can deliver insights from experiments that might otherwise be considered a failure. © 2017 Society for Conservation Biology.

Declining Abundance of Beaked Whales (Family Ziphiidae) in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem

PubMed Central

Moore, Jeffrey E.; Barlow, Jay P.

2013-01-01

Beaked whales are among the most diverse yet least understood groups of marine mammals. A diverse set of mostly anthropogenic threats necessitates improvement in our ability to assess population status for this cryptic group. The Southwest Fisheries Science Center (NOAA) conducted six ship line-transect cetacean abundance surveys in the California Current off the contiguous western United States between 1991 and 2008. We used a Bayesian hidden-process modeling approach to estimate abundance and population trends of beaked whales using sightings data from these surveys. We also compiled records of beaked whale stranding events (3 genera, at least 8 species) on adjacent beaches from 1900 to 2012, to help assess population status of beaked whales in the northern part of the California Current. Bayesian posterior summaries for trend parameters provide strong evidence of declining beaked whale abundance in the study area. The probability of negative trend for Cuvier's beaked whale (Ziphius cavirostris) during 1991–2008 was 0.84, with 1991 and 2008 estimates of 10771 (CV = 0.51) and ≈7550 (CV = 0.55), respectively. The probability of decline for Mesoplodon spp. (pooled across species) was 0.96, with 1991 and 2008 estimates of 2206 (CV = 0.46) and 811 (CV = 0.65). The mean posterior estimates for average rate of decline were 2.9% and 7.0% per year. There was no evidence of abundance trend for Baird's beaked whale (Berardius bairdii), for which annual abundance estimates in the survey area ranged from ≈900 to 1300 (CV≈1.3). Stranding data were consistent with the survey results. Causes of apparent declines are unknown. Direct impacts of fisheries (bycatch) can be ruled out, but impacts of anthropogenic sound (e.g., naval active sonar) and ecosystem change are plausible hypotheses that merit investigation. PMID:23341907

Expanding zooplankton standing stock estimation from meso- to metazooplankton: A case study in the N. Aegean Sea (Mediterranean Sea)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frangoulis, Constantin; Grigoratou, Maria; Zoulias, Theodore; Hannides, Cecelia C. S.; Pantazi, Maria; Psarra, Stella; Siokou, Ioanna

2017-10-01

Although metazooplankton includes a wide size range of organisms, our knowledge is essentially based on mesozooplankton. A first estimation of the metazooplankton standing stock in a Mediterranean area, and of its size fractions and functional groups are provided by combining data out of three nets with different mesh sizes (45, 200 and 500 μm). Data were collected along a gradient of oligotrophy in the frontal area created, where the waters of Black Sea origin meet those of Levantine Sea origin (Northeast Aegean Sea, Eastern Mediterranean). Metazooplankton biomass was dominated by mesozooplankton (0.2-2 mm), while meso- and microzooplankton (<0.2 mm) shared dominance of abundance. Copepods dominated both in abundance and biomass and were followed by nauplii in abundance and gelatinous carnivores or decapod-euphausiid larvae in biomass. The spatiotemporal variability of metazoans stock, biomass-size spectra linearity, carnivorous group contribution and copepod diversity, supported that metazooplankton tends to recede from steady-state when approaching less oligotrophic dynamic areas (such as fronts) or dynamic periods (such as the spring bloom). The need and the difficulties of obtaining a larger picture from a wider size range of metazoans for understanding the role of zooplankton are stressed.

Using hierarchical Bayesian multi-species mixture models to estimate tandem hoop-net based habitat associations and detection probabilities of fishes in reservoirs

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stewart, David R.; Long, James M.

2015-01-01

Species distribution models are useful tools to evaluate habitat relationships of fishes. We used hierarchical Bayesian multispecies mixture models to evaluate the relationships of both detection and abundance with habitat of reservoir fishes caught using tandem hoop nets. A total of 7,212 fish from 12 species were captured, and the majority of the catch was composed of Channel Catfish Ictalurus punctatus (46%), Bluegill Lepomis macrochirus(25%), and White Crappie Pomoxis annularis (14%). Detection estimates ranged from 8% to 69%, and modeling results suggested that fishes were primarily influenced by reservoir size and context, water clarity and temperature, and land-use types. Species were differentially abundant within and among habitat types, and some fishes were found to be more abundant in turbid, less impacted (e.g., by urbanization and agriculture) reservoirs with longer shoreline lengths; whereas, other species were found more often in clear, nutrient-rich impoundments that had generally shorter shoreline length and were surrounded by a higher percentage of agricultural land. Our results demonstrated that habitat and reservoir characteristics may differentially benefit species and assemblage structure. This study provides a useful framework for evaluating capture efficiency for not only hoop nets but other gear types used to sample fishes in reservoirs.

Determination of lunar ilmentite abundances from remotely sensed data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, J. R.; Larson, S. M.; Singer, Robert B.

1990-01-01

The mapping of ilmenite on the surface of the moon is a necessary precursor to the investigation of prospective lunar base sites. Telescopic observations of the moon using a variety of narrow bandpass optical interference filters are being performed as a preliminary means of achieving this goal. Specifically, ratios of images obtained using filters centered at 0.40 and 0.56 microns provide quantitative estimates of TiO2 abundances. Analysis of preliminary distribution maps of TiO2 concentrations allows identification of specific high-Ti areas. Investigations of these areas using slit spectra in the range 0.03 to 0.85 microns are underway to search for discrete spectral signatures attributable to ilmenite.

Utility and validation of day and night snorkel counts for estimating bull trout abundance in first-to-third order streams

Treesearch

Russell F. Thurow; James T. Peterson; John W. Guzevich

2006-01-01

Despite the widespread use of underwater observation to census stream-dwelling fishes, the accuracy of snorkeling methods has rarely been validated. We evaluated the efficiency of day and night snorkel counts for estimating the abundance of bull trout Salvelinus confluentus in 215 sites within first- to third-order streams. We used a dual-gear...

On the Chemical Abundances of Miras in Clusters: V1 in the Metal-rich Globular NGC 5927

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D’Orazi, V.; Magurno, D.; Bono, G.; Matsunaga, N.; Braga, V. F.; Elgueta, S. S.; Fukue, K.; Hamano, S.; Inno, L.; Kobayashi, N.; Kondo, S.; Monelli, M.; Nonino, M.; Przybilla, N.; Sameshima, H.; Saviane, I.; Taniguchi, D.; Thevenin, F.; Urbaneja-Perez, M.; Watase, A.; Arai, A.; Bergemann, M.; Buonanno, R.; Dall’Ora, M.; Da Silva, R.; Fabrizio, M.; Ferraro, I.; Fiorentino, G.; Francois, P.; Gilmozzi, R.; Iannicola, G.; Ikeda, Y.; Jian, M.; Kawakita, H.; Kudritzki, R. P.; Lemasle, B.; Marengo, M.; Marinoni, S.; Martínez-Vázquez, C. E.; Minniti, D.; Neeley, J.; Otsubo, S.; Prieto, J. L.; Proxauf, B.; Romaniello, M.; Sanna, N.; Sneden, C.; Takenaka, K.; Tsujimoto, T.; Valenti, E.; Yasui, C.; Yoshikawa, T.; Zoccali, M.

2018-03-01

We present the first spectroscopic abundance determination of iron, α-elements (Si, Ca, and Ti), and sodium for the Mira variable V1 in the metal-rich globular cluster NGC 5927. We use high-resolution (R ∼ 28,000), high signal-to-noise ratio (∼200) spectra collected with WINERED, a near-infrared (NIR) spectrograph covering simultaneously the wavelength range 0.91–1.35 μm. The effective temperature and the surface gravity at the pulsation phase of the spectroscopic observation were estimated using both optical (V) and NIR time-series photometric data. We found that the Mira is metal-rich ([Fe/H] = ‑0.55 ± 0.15) and moderately α-enhanced ([α/Fe] = 0.15 ± 0.01, σ = 0.2). These values agree quite well with the mean cluster abundances based on high-resolution optical spectra of several cluster red giants available in the literature ([Fe/H] = ‑ 0.47 ± 0.06, [α/Fe] = + 0.24 ± 0.05). We also found a Na abundance of +0.35 ± 0.20 that is higher than the mean cluster abundance based on optical spectra (+0.18 ± 0.13). However, the lack of similar spectra for cluster red giants and that of corrections for departures from local thermodynamical equilibrium prevents us from establishing whether the difference is intrinsic or connected with multiple populations. These findings indicate a strong similarity between optical and NIR metallicity scales in spite of the difference in the experimental equipment, data analysis, and in the adopted spectroscopic diagnostics. Based on spectra collected with the WINERED spectrograph available as a visitor instrument at the ESO New Technology Telescope (NTT), La Silla, Chile (ESO Proposal: 098.D-0878(A), PI: G. Bono).

Genetic assessment of strain-specific sources of lake trout recruitment in the Great Lakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Page, Kevin S.; Scribner, Kim T.; Bennett, Kristine R.; Garzel, Laura M.; Burnham-Curtis, Mary K.

2003-01-01

Populations of wild lake trout Salvelinus namaycush have been extirpated from nearly all their historical habitats across the Great Lakes. Efforts to restore self-sustaining lake trout populations in U.S. waters have emphasized the stocking of coded-wire-tagged juveniles from six hatchery strains (Seneca Lake, Lewis Lake, Green Lake, Apostle Islands, Isle Royale, and Marquette) into vacant habitats. Strain-specific stocking success has historically been based on estimates of the survival and catch rates of coded-wire-tagged adults returning to spawning sites. However, traditional marking methods and estimates of relative strain abundance provide no means of assessing strain fitness (i.e., the realized contributions to natural recruitment) except by assuming that young-of-the-year production is proportional to adult spawner abundance. We used microsatellite genetic data collected from six hatchery strains with likelihood-based individual assignment tests (IA) and mixed-stock analysis (MSA) to identify the strain composition of young of the year recruited each year. We show that strain classifications based on IA and MSA were concordant and that the accuracy of both methods varied based on strain composition. Analyses of young-of-the-year lake trout samples from Little Traverse Bay (Lake Michigan) and Six Fathom Bank (Lake Huron) revealed that strain contributions differed significantly from estimates of the strain composition of adults returning to spawning reefs. The Seneca Lake strain contributed the majority of juveniles produced on Six Fathom Bank and more young of the year than expected within Little Traverse Bay. Microsatellite markers provided a method for accurately classifying the lake trout hatchery strains used for restoration efforts in the Great Lakes and for assessment of strain-specific reproductive success.

Data reconstruction can improve abundance index estimation: An example using Taiwanese longline data for Pacific bluefin tuna

PubMed Central

Fukuda, Hiromu; Maunder, Mark N.

2017-01-01

Catch-per-unit-effort (CPUE) is often the main piece of information used in fisheries stock assessment; however, the catch and effort data that are traditionally compiled from commercial logbooks can be incomplete or unreliable due to many reasons. Pacific bluefin tuna (PBF) is a seasonal target species in the Taiwanese longline fishery. Since 2010, detailed catch information for each PBF has been made available through a catch documentation scheme. However, previously, only market landing data with a low coverage of logbooks were available. Therefore, several nontraditional procedures were performed to reconstruct catch and effort data from many alternative data sources not directly obtained from fishers for 2001–2015: (1) Estimating the catch number from the landing weight for 2001–2003, for which the catch number information was incomplete, based on Monte Carlo simulation; (2) deriving fishing days for 2007–2009 from voyage data recorder data, based on a newly developed algorithm; and (3) deriving fishing days for 2001–2006 from vessel trip information, based on linear relationships between fishing and at-sea days. Subsequently, generalized linear mixed models were developed with the delta-lognormal assumption for standardizing the CPUE calculated from the reconstructed data, and three-stage model evaluation was performed using (1) Akaike and Bayesian information criteria to determine the most favorable variable composition of standardization models, (2) overall R2 via cross-validation to compare fitting performance between area-separated and area-combined standardizations, and (3) system-based testing to explore the consistency of the standardized CPUEs with auxiliary data in the PBF stock assessment model. The last stage of evaluation revealed high consistency among the data, thus demonstrating improvements in data reconstruction for estimating the abundance index, and consequently the stock assessment. PMID:28968434

Incorporating parametric uncertainty into population viability analysis models

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGowan, Conor P.; Runge, Michael C.; Larson, Michael A.

2011-01-01

Uncertainty in parameter estimates from sampling variation or expert judgment can introduce substantial uncertainty into ecological predictions based on those estimates. However, in standard population viability analyses, one of the most widely used tools for managing plant, fish and wildlife populations, parametric uncertainty is often ignored in or discarded from model projections. We present a method for explicitly incorporating this source of uncertainty into population models to fully account for risk in management and decision contexts. Our method involves a two-step simulation process where parametric uncertainty is incorporated into the replication loop of the model and temporal variance is incorporated into the loop for time steps in the model. Using the piping plover, a federally threatened shorebird in the USA and Canada, as an example, we compare abundance projections and extinction probabilities from simulations that exclude and include parametric uncertainty. Although final abundance was very low for all sets of simulations, estimated extinction risk was much greater for the simulation that incorporated parametric uncertainty in the replication loop. Decisions about species conservation (e.g., listing, delisting, and jeopardy) might differ greatly depending on the treatment of parametric uncertainty in population models.

A TiO2 abundance map for the northern maria

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, T. V.; Saunders, R. S.; Matson, D. L.; Mosher, J. A.

1977-01-01

A map of TiO2 abundance for most of the northern maria is presented. The telescopic data base used is the 0.38/0.56-micron ratio mosaic from Johnson et at. (1977). The titanium content has been estimated using the correlation established by Charette et al. (1974). The combination of observational, processing, and calibration errors indicates that the TiO2 map is accurate to + or - 2% (wt% TiO2) for high TiO2 content (more than 5%) and + or - 1% for low values of TiO2. Analysis of the lunar sample and telescopic data suggests strongly that the spectral parameter mapped is sensitive primarily to TiO2 abundance in the range 3-9% and does not correlate directly with iron content. It is suggested, however, that for the low TiO2 mare regions (less than 2-3% TiO2) there may be a relation between the spectral ratio and iron content and that some of the reddest mare areas in the Imbrium region may have low iron contents as well as low titanium abundances.

Estimating juvenile Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) abundance from beach seine data collected in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta and San Francisco Bay, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Perry, Russell W.; Kirsch, Joseph E.; Hendrix, A. Noble

2016-06-17

Resource managers rely on abundance or density metrics derived from beach seine surveys to make vital decisions that affect fish population dynamics and assemblage structure. However, abundance and density metrics may be biased by imperfect capture and lack of geographic closure during sampling. Currently, there is considerable uncertainty about the capture efficiency of juvenile Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) by beach seines. Heterogeneity in capture can occur through unrealistic assumptions of closure and from variation in the probability of capture caused by environmental conditions. We evaluated the assumptions of closure and the influence of environmental conditions on capture efficiency and abundance estimates of Chinook salmon from beach seining within the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta and the San Francisco Bay. Beach seine capture efficiency was measured using a stratified random sampling design combined with open and closed replicate depletion sampling. A total of 56 samples were collected during the spring of 2014. To assess variability in capture probability and the absolute abundance of juvenile Chinook salmon, beach seine capture efficiency data were fitted to the paired depletion design using modified N-mixture models. These models allowed us to explicitly test the closure assumption and estimate environmental effects on the probability of capture. We determined that our updated method allowing for lack of closure between depletion samples drastically outperformed traditional data analysis that assumes closure among replicate samples. The best-fit model (lowest-valued Akaike Information Criterion model) included the probability of fish being available for capture (relaxed closure assumption), capture probability modeled as a function of water velocity and percent coverage of fine sediment, and abundance modeled as a function of sample area, temperature, and water velocity. Given that beach seining is a ubiquitous sampling technique for many species, our improved sampling design and analysis could provide significant improvements in density and abundance estimation.

C/O Ratios of Stars with Transiting Hot Jupiter Exoplanets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teske, Johanna K.; Cunha, Katia; Smith, Verne V.; Schuler, Simon C.; Griffith, Caitlin A.

2014-06-01

The relative abundances of carbon and oxygen have long been recognized as fundamental diagnostics of stellar chemical evolution. Now, the growing number of exoplanet observations enable estimation of these elements in exoplanetary atmospheres. In hot Jupiters, the C/O ratio affects the partitioning of carbon in the major observable molecules, making these elements diagnostic of temperature structure and composition. Here we present measurements of carbon and oxygen abundances in 16 stars that host transiting hot Jupiter exoplanets, and we compare our C/O ratios to those measured in larger samples of host stars, as well as those estimated for the corresponding exoplanet atmospheres. With standard stellar abundance analysis we derive stellar parameters as well as [C/H] and [O/H] from multiple abundance indicators, including synthesis fitting of the [O I] λ6300 line and non-LTE corrections for the O I triplet. Our results, in agreement with recent suggestions, indicate that previously measured exoplanet host star C/O ratios may have been overestimated. The mean transiting exoplanet host star C/O ratio from this sample is 0.54 (C/O⊙ = 0.54), versus previously measured C/Ohost star means of ~0.65-0.75. We also observe the increase in C/O with [Fe/H] expected for all stars based on Galactic chemical evolution; a linear fit to our results falls slightly below that of other exoplanet host star studies but has a similar slope. Though the C/O ratios of even the most-observed exoplanets are still uncertain, the more precise abundance analysis possible right now for their host stars can help constrain these planets' formation environments and current compositions. Based on data collected at Subaru Telescope, which is operated by the National Astronomical Observatory of Japan. Some of the data presented herein were obtained at the W. M. Keck Observatory, which is operated as a scientific partnership among the California Institute of Technology, the University of California, and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. The Observatory was made possible by the generous financial support of the W. M. Keck Foundation.

Trends in sea otter population abundance in western Prince William Sound, Alaska: Progress toward recovery following the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bodkin, James L.; Ballachey, Brenda E.; Esslinger, George G.

2011-01-01

Sea otters in western Prince William Sound (WPWS) and elsewhere in the Gulf of Alaska suffered widespread mortality as a result of oiling following the 1989 T/V Exxon Valdez oil spill. Following the spill, extensive efforts have been directed toward identifying and understanding long-term consequences of the spill and the process of recovery. We conducted annual aerial surveys of sea otter abundance from 1993 to 2009 (except for 2001 and 2006) in WPWS. We observed an increasing trend in population abundance at the scale of WPWS through 2000 at an average annual rate of 4 percent: however, at northern Knight Island where oiling was heaviest and sea otter mortality highest, no increase in abundance was evident by 2000. We continued to see significant increase in abundance at the scale of WPWS between 2001 and 2009, with an average annual rate of increase from 1993 to 2009 of 2.6 percent. We estimated the 2009 population size of WPWS to be 3,958 animals (standard error=653), nearly 2,000 animals more than the first post-spill estimate in 1993. Surveys since 2003 also have identified a significant increasing trend at the heavily oiled site in northern Knight Island, averaging about 25 percent annually and resulting in a 2009 estimated population size of 116 animals (standard error=19). Although the 2009 estimate for northern Knight Island remains about 30 percent less than the pre-spill estimate of 165 animals, we interpret this trend as strong evidence of a trajectory toward recovery of spill-affected sea otter populations in WPWS.

Factors influencing stream fish recovery following a large-scale disturbance

Treesearch

William E. Ensign; Angermeier Leftwich; C. Andrew Dolloff

1997-01-01

The authors examined fish distribution and abundance in erosional habitat units in South Fork Roanoke River, VA, following a fish kill by using a reachwide sampling approach for 3 species and a representative-reach sampling approach for 10 species. Qualitative (presence-absence) and quantitative (relative abundance) estimates of distribution and abundance provided...

Viral prevalence increases with regional colony abundance in honey bee drones (Apis mellifera L).

PubMed

Forfert, Nadège; Natsopoulou, Myrsini E; Paxton, Robert J; Moritz, Robin F A

2016-10-01

Transmission among colonies is a central feature for the epidemiology of honey bee pathogens. High colony abundance may promote transmission among colonies independently of apiary layout, making colony abundance a potentially important parameter determining pathogen prevalence in populations of honey bees. To test this idea, we sampled male honey bees (drones) from seven distinct drone congregation areas (DCA), and used their genotypes to estimate colony abundance at each site. A multiplex ligation dependent probe amplification assay (MLPA) was used to assess the prevalence of ten viruses, using five common viral targets, in individual drones. There was a significant positive association between colony abundance and number of viral infections. This result highlights the potential importance of high colony abundance for pathogen prevalence, possibly because high population density facilitates pathogen transmission. Pathogen prevalence in drones collected from DCAs may be a useful means of estimating the disease status of a population of honey bees during the mating season, especially for localities with a large number of wild or feral colonies. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

as response to seasonal variability

PubMed

Badano, Ernesto I; Labra, Fabio A; Martínez-Pérez, Cecilia G; Vergara, Carlos H

2016-03-01

Ecologists have been largely interested in the description and understanding of the power scaling relationships between body size and abundance of organisms. Many studies have focused on estimating the exponents of these functions across taxonomic groups and spatial scales, to draw inferences about the processes underlying this pattern. The exponents of these functions usually approximate -3/4 at geographical scales, but they deviate from this value when smaller spatial extensions are considered. This has led to propose that body size-abundance relationships at small spatial scales may reflect the impact of environmental changes. This study tests this hypothesis by examining body size spectra of benthic shrimps (Decapoda: Caridea) and snails (Gastropoda) in the Tamiahua lagoon, a brackish body water located in the Eastern coast of Mexico. We mea- sured water quality parameters (dissolved oxygen, salinity, pH, water temperature, sediment organic matter and chemical oxygen demand) and sampled benthic macrofauna during three different climatic conditions of the year (cold, dry and rainy season). Given the small size of most individuals in the benthic macrofaunal samples, we used body volume, instead of weight, to estimate their body size. Body size-abundance relationships of both taxonomic groups were described by tabulating data from each season into base-2 logarithmic body size bins. In both taxonomic groups, observed frequencies per body size class in each season were standardized to yield densities (i.e., individuals/m(3)). Nonlinear regression analyses were separately performed for each taxonomic group at each season to assess whether body size spectra followed power scaling functions. Additionally, for each taxonomic group, multiple regression analyses were used to determine whether these relationships varied among seasons. Our results indicated that, while body size-abundance relationships in both taxonomic groups followed power functions, the parameters defining the shape of these relationships varied among seasons. These variations in the parameters of the body size-abundance relationships seems to be related to changes in the abundance of individuals within the different body size classes, which seems to follow the seasonal changes that occur in the environmental conditions of the lagoon. Thus, we propose that these body size-abundance relation- ships are influenced by the frequency and intensity of environmental changes affecting this ecosystem.

Minimum area requirements for an at-risk butterfly based on movement and demography.

PubMed

Brown, Leone M; Crone, Elizabeth E

2016-02-01

Determining the minimum area required to sustain populations has a long history in theoretical and conservation biology. Correlative approaches are often used to estimate minimum area requirements (MARs) based on relationships between area and the population size required for persistence or between species' traits and distribution patterns across landscapes. Mechanistic approaches to estimating MAR facilitate prediction across space and time but are few. We used a mechanistic MAR model to determine the critical minimum patch size (CMP) for the Baltimore checkerspot butterfly (Euphydryas phaeton), a locally abundant species in decline along its southern range, and sister to several federally listed species. Our CMP is based on principles of diffusion, where individuals in smaller patches encounter edges and leave with higher probability than those in larger patches, potentially before reproducing. We estimated a CMP for the Baltimore checkerspot of 0.7-1.5 ha, in accordance with trait-based MAR estimates. The diffusion rate on which we based this CMP was broadly similar when estimated at the landscape scale (comparing flight path vs. capture-mark-recapture data), and the estimated population growth rate was consistent with observed site trends. Our mechanistic approach to estimating MAR is appropriate for species whose movement follows a correlated random walk and may be useful where landscape-scale distributions are difficult to assess, but demographic and movement data are obtainable from a single site or the literature. Just as simple estimates of lambda are often used to assess population viability, the principles of diffusion and CMP could provide a starting place for estimating MAR for conservation. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.

The Primordial Deuterium Abundance of the Most Metal-poor Damped Lyman-α System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cooke, Ryan J.; Pettini, Max; Nollett, Kenneth M.; Jorgenson, Regina

2016-10-01

We report the discovery and analysis of the most metal-poor damped Lyα (DLA) system currently known, which also displays the Lyman series absorption lines of neutral deuterium. The average [O/H] abundance of this system is [O/H] = -2.804 ± 0.015, which includes an absorption component with [O/H] = -3.07 ± 0.03. Despite the unfortunate blending of many weak D I absorption lines, we report a precise measurement of the deuterium abundance of this system. Using the six highest-quality and self-consistently analyzed measures of D/H in DLAs, we report tentative evidence for a subtle decrease of D/H with increasing metallicity. This trend must be confirmed with future high-precision D/H measurements spanning a range of metallicity. A weighted mean of these six independent measures provides our best estimate of the primordial abundance of deuterium, 105 (D/H)P = 2.547 ± 0.033 ({{log}}10 {{{(D/H)}}}{{P}}=-4.5940+/- 0.0056). We perform a series of detailed Monte Carlo calculations of Big Bang nucleosynthesis (BBN) that incorporate the latest determinations of several key nuclear reaction cross-sections, and propagate their associated uncertainty. Combining our measurement of (D/H)P with these BBN calculations yields an estimate of the cosmic baryon density, 100 ΩB,0 h 2(BBN) = 2.156 ± 0.020, if we adopt the most recent theoretical determination of the d{(p,γ )}3{He} reaction rate. This measure of ΩB,0 h 2 differs by ˜2.3σ from the Standard Model value estimated from the Planck observations of the cosmic microwave background. Using instead a d{(p,γ )}3{He} reaction rate that is based on the best available experimental cross-section data, we estimate 100 ΩB,0 h 2(BBN) = 2.260 ± 0.034, which is in somewhat better agreement with the Planck value. Forthcoming measurements of the crucial d{(p,γ )}3{He} cross-section may shed further light on this discrepancy. Based on observations collected at the European Organisation for Astronomical Research in the Southern Hemisphere, Chile (VLT program ID: 093.A-0016(A)), and at the W.M. Keck Observatory which is operated as a scientific partnership among the California Institute of Technology, the University of California, and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. The Observatory was made possible by the generous financial support of the W.M. Keck Foundation.

Fish wariness is a more sensitive indicator to changes in fishing pressure than abundance, length or biomass.

PubMed

Goetze, Jordan S; Januchowski-Hartley, Fraser A; Claudet, Joachim; Langlois, Tim J; Wilson, Shaun K; Jupiter, Stacy D

2017-06-01

Identifying the most sensitive indicators to changes in fishing pressure is important for accurately detecting impacts. Biomass is thought to be more sensitive than abundance and length, while the wariness of fishes is emerging as a new metric. Periodically harvested closures (PHCs) that involve the opening and closing of an area to fishing are the most common form of fisheries management in the western Pacific. The opening of PHCs to fishing provides a unique opportunity to compare the sensitivity of metrics, such as abundance, length, biomass and wariness, to changes in fishing pressure. Diver-operated stereo video (stereo-DOV) provides data on fish behavior (using a proxy for wariness, minimum approach distance) simultaneous to abundance and length estimates. We assessed the impact of PHC protection and harvesting on the abundance, length, biomass, and wariness of target species using stereo-DOVs. This allowed a comparison of the sensitivity of these metrics to changes in fishing pressure across four PHCs in Fiji, where spearfishing and fish drives are common. Before PHCs were opened to fishing they consistently decreased the wariness of targeted species but were less likely to increase abundance, length, or biomass. Pulse harvesting of PHCs resulted in a rapid increase in the wariness of fishes but inconsistent impacts across the other metrics. Our results suggest that fish wariness is the most sensitive indicator of fishing pressure, followed by biomass, length, and abundance. The collection of behavioral data simultaneously with abundance, length, and biomass estimates using stereo-DOVs offers a cost-effective indicator of protection or rapid increases in fishing pressure. Stereo-DOVs can rapidly provide large amounts of behavioral data from monitoring programs historically focused on estimating abundance and length of fishes, which is not feasible with visual methods. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Can Occupancy–Abundance Models Be Used to Monitor Wolf Abundance?

PubMed Central

Latham, M. Cecilia; Latham, A. David M.; Webb, Nathan F.; Mccutchen, Nicole A.; Boutin, Stan

2014-01-01

Estimating the abundance of wild carnivores is of foremost importance for conservation and management. However, given their elusive habits, direct observations of these animals are difficult to obtain, so abundance is more commonly estimated from sign surveys or radio-marked individuals. These methods can be costly and difficult, particularly in large areas with heavy forest cover. As an alternative, recent research has suggested that wolf abundance can be estimated from occupancy–abundance curves derived from “virtual” surveys of simulated wolf track networks. Although potentially more cost-effective, the utility of this approach hinges on its robustness to violations of its assumptions. We assessed the sensitivity of the occupancy–abundance approach to four assumptions: variation in wolf movement rates, changes in pack cohesion, presence of lone wolves, and size of survey units. Our simulations showed that occupancy rates and wolf pack abundances were biased high if track surveys were conducted when wolves made long compared to short movements, wolf packs were moving as multiple hunting units as opposed to a cohesive pack, and lone wolves were moving throughout the surveyed landscape. We also found that larger survey units (400 and 576 km2) were more robust to changes in these factors than smaller survey units (36 and 144 km2). However, occupancy rates derived from large survey units rapidly reached an asymptote at 100% occupancy, suggesting that these large units are inappropriate for areas with moderate to high wolf densities (>15 wolves/1,000 km2). Virtually-derived occupancy–abundance relationships can be a useful method for monitoring wolves and other elusive wildlife if applied within certain constraints, in particular biological knowledge of the surveyed species needs to be incorporated into the design of the occupancy surveys. Further, we suggest that the applicability of this method could be extended by directly incorporating some of its assumptions into the modelling framework. PMID:25054199

Holocene local forest history at two sites in Småland, southern Sweden - insights from quantitative reconstructions using the Landscape Reconstruction Algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cui, Qiaoyu; Gaillard, Marie-José; Lemdahl, Geoffrey; Olsson, Fredrik; Sugita, Shinya

2010-05-01

Quantitative reconstruction of past vegetation using fossil pollen was long very problematic. It is well known that pollen percentages and pollen accumulation rates do not represent vegetation abundance properly because pollen values are influenced by many factors of which inter-taxonomic differences in pollen productivity and vegetation structure are the most important ones. It is also recognized that pollen assemblages from large sites (lakes or bogs) record the characteristics of the regional vegetation, while pollen assemblages from small sites record local features. Based on the theoretical understanding of the factors and mechanisms that affect pollen representation of vegetation, Sugita (2007a and b) proposed the Landscape Reconstruction Algorithm (LRA) to estimate vegetation abundance in percentage cover for well defined spatial scales. The LRA includes two models, REVEALS and LOVE. REVEALS estimates regional vegetation abundance at a spatial scale of 100 km x 100 km. LOVE estimates local vegetation abundance at the spatial scale of the relevant source area of pollen (RSAP sensu Sugita 1993) of the pollen site. REVEALS estimates are needed to apply LOVE in order to calculate the RSAP and the vegetation cover within the RSAP. The two models were validated theoretically and empirically. Two small bogs in southern Sweden were studied for pollen, plant macrofossil, charcoal, and coleoptera in order to reconstruct the local Holocene forest and fire history (e.g. Greisman and Gaillard 2009; Olsson et al. 2009). We applied the LOVE model in order to 1) compare the LOVE estimates with pollen percentages for a better understanding of the local forest history; 2) obtain more precise information on the local vegetation to explain between-sites differences in fire history. We used pollen records from two large lakes in Småland to obtain REVEALS estimates for twelve continuous 500-yrs time windows. Following the strategy of the Swedish VR LANDCLIM project (see Gaillard et al.; Trondman et al., CL 1.22; Mazier et al. CL 1.21) we used 3 sets of pollen taxa (20, 22, 31) and 3 sets of pollen productivity estimates (PPEs) (1. southern Sweden; 2. southern Sweden except for cereals, Calluna, Plantago and Rumex, Denmark; 3. the mean of all PPEs available in NW Europe). The Spearman rank correlation test shows that there are no significant differences between the 9 runs. LOVE was applied on the pollen records from the two small bogs following the same strategy. We also compared the LOVE estimates (20 taxa, PPEs dataset 2) with the records of plant macro-remains and coleoptera species that are indicators of the local occurrence of conifers (Pinus and Picea), Betula, and deciduous trees. The results show large discrepancies between the LOVE estimates and pollen percentages. The LOVE estimates are higher than pollen percentages for Cyperaceae, Gramineae and Filipendula, and the broaded-leaved trees Corylus, Fraxinus, and Tilia. In contrast, the LOVE estimates for Pinus and Betula are generally much lower than their pollen percentages. LOVE estimates and pollen percentages are relatively similar for Alnus, Quercus, and Calluna. The LOVE reconstruction confirms the assumed difference between the sites in terms of the abundance of birch and pine, which was not clearly demonstrated by the pollen percentages and accumulation rates. The Pinus LOVE estimates are significantly higher at one of the sites, which explains the differences in fire history between the sites. The comparison of the LOVE estimates with plant macro-remains and coleoptera species shows a good correspondence. References: Greisman, A. and Gaillard, MJ, 2009. Journal of Quaternary Science, 24(6):593-611. Olsson, F. et al. 2009. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, 10.1016/j.palaeo.2009.07.013 Sugita, S., 1993. Quaternary Research, 39:239-244. Sugita, S., 2007a. The Holocene, 17(2):229-241. Sugita, S., 2007b. The Holocene, 17(2):243-257.

Diversity and population structure of Marine Group A bacteria in the Northeast subarctic Pacific Ocean.

PubMed

Allers, Elke; Wright, Jody J; Konwar, Kishori M; Howes, Charles G; Beneze, Erica; Hallam, Steven J; Sullivan, Matthew B

2013-02-01

Marine Group A (MGA) is a candidate phylum of Bacteria that is ubiquitous and abundant in the ocean. Despite being prevalent, the structural and functional properties of MGA populations remain poorly constrained. Here, we quantified MGA diversity and population structure in relation to nutrients and O(2) concentrations in the oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) of the Northeast subarctic Pacific Ocean using a combination of catalyzed reporter deposition fluorescence in situ hybridization (CARD-FISH) and 16S small subunit ribosomal RNA (16S rRNA) gene sequencing (clone libraries and 454-pyrotags). Estimates of MGA abundance as a proportion of total bacteria were similar across all three methods although estimates based on CARD-FISH were consistently lower in the OMZ (5.6%±1.9%) than estimates based on 16S rRNA gene clone libraries (11.0%±3.9%) or pyrotags (9.9%±1.8%). Five previously defined MGA subgroups were recovered in 16S rRNA gene clone libraries and five novel subgroups were defined (HF770D10, P262000D03, P41300E03, P262000N21 and A714018). Rarefaction analysis of pyrotag data indicated that the ultimate richness of MGA was very nearly sampled. Spearman's rank analysis of MGA abundances by CARD-FISH and O(2) concentrations resulted in significant correlation. Analyzed in more detail by 16S rRNA pyrotag sequencing, MGA operational taxonomic units affiliated with subgroups Arctic95A-2 and A714018 comprised 0.3-2.4% of total bacterial sequences and displayed strong correlations with decreasing O(2) concentration. This study is the first comprehensive description of MGA diversity using complementary techniques. These results provide a phylogenetic framework for interpreting future studies on ecotype selection among MGA subgroups, and suggest a potentially important role for MGA in the ecology and biogeochemistry of OMZs.

The improvement of precision for estimating the abundance of standing dead trees using auxiliary information under the FIA pot design

Treesearch

Hong Su An; David W. MacFarlane; Christopher W. Woodall

2012-01-01

Standing dead trees are an important component of forest ecosystems. However, reliable estimates of standing dead tree population parameters can be difficult to obtain due to their low abundance and spatial and temporal variation. After 1999, the Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) Program began collecting data for standing dead trees at the Phase 2 stage of sampling....

Validation of abundance estimates from mark-recapture and removal techniques for rainbow trout captured by electrofishing in small streams

Treesearch

Amanda E. Rosenberger; Jason B. Dunham

2005-01-01

Estimation of fish abundance in streams using the removal model or the Lincoln–Peterson mark–recapture model is a common practice in fisheries. These models produce misleading results if their assumptions are violated. We evaluated the assumptions of these two models via electrofishing of rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss in central Idaho streams....

Recreational Fish-Finders—An Inexpensive Alternative to Scientific Echo-Sounders for Unravelling the Links between Marine Top Predators and Their Prey

PubMed Central

McInnes, Alistair M.; Khoosal, Arjun; Murrell, Ben; Merkle, Dagmar; Lacerda, Miguel; Nyengera, Reason; Coetzee, Janet C.; Edwards, Loyd C.; Ryan, Peter G.; Rademan, Johan; van der Westhuizen, Jan J; Pichegru, Lorien

2015-01-01

Studies investigating how mobile marine predators respond to their prey are limited due to the challenging nature of the environment. While marine top predators are increasingly easy to study thanks to developments in bio-logging technology, typically there is scant information on the distribution and abundance of their prey, largely due to the specialised nature of acquiring this information. We explore the potential of using single-beam recreational fish-finders (RFF) to quantify relative forage fish abundance and draw inferences of the prey distribution at a fine spatial scale. We compared fish school characteristics as inferred from the RFF with that of a calibrated scientific split-beam echo-sounder (SES) by simultaneously operating both systems from the same vessel in Algoa Bay, South Africa. Customized open-source software was developed to extract fish school information from the echo returns of the RFF. For schools insonified by both systems, there was close correspondence between estimates of mean school depth (R2 = 0.98) and school area (R2 = 0.70). Estimates of relative school density (mean volume backscattering strength; Sv) measured by the RFF were negatively biased through saturation of this system given its smaller dynamic range. A correction factor applied to the RFF-derived density estimates improved the comparability between the two systems. Relative abundance estimates using all schools from both systems were congruent at scales from 0.5 km to 18 km with a strong positive linear trend in model fit estimates with increasing scale. Although absolute estimates of fish abundance cannot be derived from these systems, they are effective at describing prey school characteristics and have good potential for mapping forage fish distribution and relative abundance. Using such relatively inexpensive systems could greatly enhance our understanding of predator-prey interactions. PMID:26600300

Double-survey estimates of bald eagle populations in Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Anthony, R.G.; Garrett, Monte G.; Isaacs, F.B.

1999-01-01

The literature on abundance of birds of prey is almost devoid of population estimates with statistical rigor. Therefore, we surveyed bald eagle (Haliaeetus leucocephalus) populations on the Crooked and lower Columbia rivers of Oregon and used the double-survey method to estimate populations and sighting probabilities for different survey methods (aerial, boat, vehicle) and bald eagle ages (adults vs. subadults). Sighting probabilities were consistently 20%. The results revealed variable and negative bias (percent relative bias = -9 to -70%) of direct counts and emphasized the importance of estimating populations where some measure of precision and ability to conduct inference tests are available. We recommend use of the double-survey method to estimate abundance of bald eagle populations and other raptors in open habitats.

A double-observer approach for estimating detection probability and abundance from point counts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.; Sauer, J.R.; Fallon, F.W.; Fallon, J.E.; Heglund, P.J.

2000-01-01

Although point counts are frequently used in ornithological studies, basic assumptions about detection probabilities often are untested. We apply a double-observer approach developed to estimate detection probabilities for aerial surveys (Cook and Jacobson 1979) to avian point counts. At each point count, a designated 'primary' observer indicates to another ('secondary') observer all birds detected. The secondary observer records all detections of the primary observer as well as any birds not detected by the primary observer. Observers alternate primary and secondary roles during the course of the survey. The approach permits estimation of observer-specific detection probabilities and bird abundance. We developed a set of models that incorporate different assumptions about sources of variation (e.g. observer, bird species) in detection probability. Seventeen field trials were conducted, and models were fit to the resulting data using program SURVIV. Single-observer point counts generally miss varying proportions of the birds actually present, and observer and bird species were found to be relevant sources of variation in detection probabilities. Overall detection probabilities (probability of being detected by at least one of the two observers) estimated using the double-observer approach were very high (>0.95), yielding precise estimates of avian abundance. We consider problems with the approach and recommend possible solutions, including restriction of the approach to fixed-radius counts to reduce the effect of variation in the effective radius of detection among various observers and to provide a basis for using spatial sampling to estimate bird abundance on large areas of interest. We believe that most questions meriting the effort required to carry out point counts also merit serious attempts to estimate detection probabilities associated with the counts. The double-observer approach is a method that can be used for this purpose.

Michigan`s forests 1993: An analysis. Forest Service resource bulletin

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schmidt, T.L.; Spencer, J.S.; Bertsch, R.

1997-02-04

Michigan`s forests are abundant, diverse, healthy, productive, and expanding. These forests make important contributions to the quality of life by providing a wide array of benefits, including wildlife habitat, biological diversity, outdoor recreation, improved air and water quality, and economic resources such as the estimated $12 billion of value added and 200,000 jobs annually supported by forest-based industries/tourism/recreation.

A Simulation Study of Acoustic-Assisted Tracking of Whales for Mark-Recapture Surveys

PubMed Central

Peel, David; Miller, Brian S.; Kelly, Natalie; Dawson, Steve; Slooten, Elisabeth; Double, Michael C.

2014-01-01

Collecting enough data to obtain reasonable abundance estimates of whales is often difficult, particularly when studying rare species. Passive acoustics can be used to detect whale sounds and are increasingly used to estimate whale abundance. Much of the existing effort centres on the use of acoustics to estimate abundance directly, e.g. analysing detections in a distance sampling framework. Here, we focus on acoustics as a tool incorporated within mark-recapture surveys. In this context, acoustic tools are used to detect and track whales, which are then photographed or biopsied to provide data for mark-recapture analyses. The purpose of incorporating acoustics is to increase the encounter rate beyond using visual searching only. While this general approach is not new, its utility is rarely quantified. This paper predicts the “acoustically-assisted” encounter rate using a discrete-time individual-based simulation of whales and survey vessel. We validate the simulation framework using existing data from studies of sperm whales. We then use the framework to predict potential encounter rates in a study of Antarctic blue whales. We also investigate the effects of a number of the key parameters on encounter rate. Mean encounter rates from the simulation of sperm whales matched well with empirical data. Variance of encounter rate, however, was underestimated. The simulation of Antarctic blue whales found that passive acoustics should provide a 1.7–3.0 fold increase in encounter rate over visual-only methods. Encounter rate was most sensitive to acoustic detection range, followed by vocalisation rate. During survey planning and design, some indication of the relationship between expected sample size and effort is paramount; this simulation framework can be used to predict encounter rates and establish this relationship. For a case in point, the simulation framework indicates unequivocally that real-time acoustic tracking should be considered for quantifying the abundance of Antarctic blue whales via mark-recapture methods. PMID:24827919

A simulation study of acoustic-assisted tracking of whales for mark-recapture surveys.

PubMed

Peel, David; Miller, Brian S; Kelly, Natalie; Dawson, Steve; Slooten, Elisabeth; Double, Michael C

2014-01-01

Collecting enough data to obtain reasonable abundance estimates of whales is often difficult, particularly when studying rare species. Passive acoustics can be used to detect whale sounds and are increasingly used to estimate whale abundance. Much of the existing effort centres on the use of acoustics to estimate abundance directly, e.g. analysing detections in a distance sampling framework. Here, we focus on acoustics as a tool incorporated within mark-recapture surveys. In this context, acoustic tools are used to detect and track whales, which are then photographed or biopsied to provide data for mark-recapture analyses. The purpose of incorporating acoustics is to increase the encounter rate beyond using visual searching only. While this general approach is not new, its utility is rarely quantified. This paper predicts the "acoustically-assisted" encounter rate using a discrete-time individual-based simulation of whales and survey vessel. We validate the simulation framework using existing data from studies of sperm whales. We then use the framework to predict potential encounter rates in a study of Antarctic blue whales. We also investigate the effects of a number of the key parameters on encounter rate. Mean encounter rates from the simulation of sperm whales matched well with empirical data. Variance of encounter rate, however, was underestimated. The simulation of Antarctic blue whales found that passive acoustics should provide a 1.7-3.0 fold increase in encounter rate over visual-only methods. Encounter rate was most sensitive to acoustic detection range, followed by vocalisation rate. During survey planning and design, some indication of the relationship between expected sample size and effort is paramount; this simulation framework can be used to predict encounter rates and establish this relationship. For a case in point, the simulation framework indicates unequivocally that real-time acoustic tracking should be considered for quantifying the abundance of Antarctic blue whales via mark-recapture methods.

Elemental gas-phase abundances of intermediate redshift type Ia supernova star-forming host galaxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moreno-Raya, M. E.; Galbany, L.; López-Sánchez, Á. R.; Mollá, M.; González-Gaitán, S.; Vílchez, J. M.; Carnero, A.

2018-05-01

The maximum luminosity of type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) depends on the oxygen abundance of the regions of the host galaxies, where they explode. This metallicity dependence reduces the dispersion in the Hubble diagram (HD) when included with the traditional two-parameter calibration of SN Ia light-curve parameters and absolute magnitude. In this work, we use empirical calibrations to carefully estimate the oxygen abundance of galaxies hosting SNe Ia from the SDSS-II/SN (Sloan Digital Sky Survey-II Supernova) survey at intermediate redshift by measuring their emission-line intensities. We also derive electronic temperature with the direct method for a small fraction of objects for consistency. We find a trend of decreasing oxygen abundance with increasing redshift for the most massive galaxies. Moreover, we study the dependence of the HD residuals (HR) with galaxy oxygen abundance obtaining a correlation in line with those found in other works. In particular, the HR versus oxygen abundance shows a slope of -0.186 ± 0.123 mag dex-1 (1.52σ) in good agreement with theoretical expectations. This implies smaller distance modulii after corrections for SNe Ia in metal-rich galaxies. Based on our previous results on local SNe Ia, we propose this dependence to be due to the lower luminosity of the SNe Ia produced in more metal-rich environments.

Effect of atomic parameters on determination of aluminium abundance in atmospheres of late-type stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menzhevitski, V. S.; Shimanskaya, N. N.; Shimansky, V. V.; Kudryavtsev, D. O.

2014-04-01

We study the effect of the photoionization cross sections for the ground state of Al I on the inferred aluminium abundance in stellar atmospheres. We match the theoretical and observed line profiles of the resonance λλ 3944.01, 3961.52 Å and subordinate λλ 6696.03, 6698.68 Å doublets in high-resolution spectra of the metal-poor solar-type stars HD22879 and HD201889. We determine the parameters of these stars from their photometric and spectroscopic data. Our computations show that the profiles can be matched and a single aluminium abundance inferred simultaneously from both groups of spectral lines only with low photoionization cross sections (about 10-12 Mb). Larger cross sections (about 58-65 Mb) make such fits impossible. We therefore conclude that small photoionization cross sections should be preferred for the determination of aluminium abundances in metal-poor stars. We redetermine the aluminium abundances in the atmospheres of halo stars. The resulting abundances prove to be lower by 0.1-0.15 dex than our earlier determinations which does not affect the conclusions based on our earlier estimates. In particular, the NLTE [Al/Fe]-[Fe/H] dependence, on the whole, agrees only qualitatively with the results of theoretical predictions. Therefore further refinement of the theory of nuclear synthesis of aluminium in the process of the chemical evolution of the Galaxy remains a task of current importance.

Astrophysical Li-7 as a product of big bang nucleosynthesis and galactic cosmic-ray spallation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Olive, Keith A.; Schramm, David N.

1992-01-01

The astrophysical Li-7 abundance is considered to be largely primordial, while the Be and B abundances are thought to be due to galactic cosmic ray (GCR) spallation reactions on top of a much smaller big bang component. But GCR spallation should also produce Li-7. As a consistency check on the combination of big bang nucleosynthesis and GCR spallation, the Be and B data from a sample of hot population II stars is used to subtract from the measured Li-7 abundance an estimate of the amount generated by GCR spallation for each star in the sample, and then to add to this baseline an estimate of the metallicity-dependent augmentation of Li-7 due to spallation. The singly reduced primordial Li-7 abundance is still consistent with big bang nucleosynthesis, and a single GCR spallation model can fit the Be, B, and corrected Li-7 abundances for all the stars in the sample.

Estimating grizzly and black bear population abundance and trend in Banff National Park using noninvasive genetic sampling.

PubMed

Sawaya, Michael A; Stetz, Jeffrey B; Clevenger, Anthony P; Gibeau, Michael L; Kalinowski, Steven T

2012-01-01

We evaluated the potential of two noninvasive genetic sampling methods, hair traps and bear rub surveys, to estimate population abundance and trend of grizzly (Ursus arctos) and black bear (U. americanus) populations in Banff National Park, Alberta, Canada. Using Huggins closed population mark-recapture models, we obtained the first precise abundance estimates for grizzly bears (N= 73.5, 95% CI = 64-94 in 2006; N= 50.4, 95% CI = 49-59 in 2008) and black bears (N= 62.6, 95% CI = 51-89 in 2006; N= 81.8, 95% CI = 72-102 in 2008) in the Bow Valley. Hair traps had high detection rates for female grizzlies, and male and female black bears, but extremely low detection rates for male grizzlies. Conversely, bear rubs had high detection rates for male and female grizzlies, but low rates for black bears. We estimated realized population growth rates, lambda, for grizzly bear males (λ= 0.93, 95% CI = 0.74-1.17) and females (λ= 0.90, 95% CI = 0.67-1.20) using Pradel open population models with three years of bear rub data. Lambda estimates are supported by abundance estimates from combined hair trap/bear rub closed population models and are consistent with a system that is likely driven by high levels of human-caused mortality. Our results suggest that bear rub surveys would provide an efficient and powerful means to inventory and monitor grizzly bear populations in the Central Canadian Rocky Mountains.

Estimating Grizzly and Black Bear Population Abundance and Trend in Banff National Park Using Noninvasive Genetic Sampling

PubMed Central

Sawaya, Michael A.; Stetz, Jeffrey B.; Clevenger, Anthony P.; Gibeau, Michael L.; Kalinowski, Steven T.

2012-01-01

We evaluated the potential of two noninvasive genetic sampling methods, hair traps and bear rub surveys, to estimate population abundance and trend of grizzly (Ursus arctos) and black bear (U. americanus) populations in Banff National Park, Alberta, Canada. Using Huggins closed population mark-recapture models, we obtained the first precise abundance estimates for grizzly bears ( = 73.5, 95% CI = 64–94 in 2006;  = 50.4, 95% CI = 49–59 in 2008) and black bears ( = 62.6, 95% CI = 51–89 in 2006;  = 81.8, 95% CI = 72–102 in 2008) in the Bow Valley. Hair traps had high detection rates for female grizzlies, and male and female black bears, but extremely low detection rates for male grizzlies. Conversely, bear rubs had high detection rates for male and female grizzlies, but low rates for black bears. We estimated realized population growth rates, lambda, for grizzly bear males ( = 0.93, 95% CI = 0.74–1.17) and females ( = 0.90, 95% CI = 0.67–1.20) using Pradel open population models with three years of bear rub data. Lambda estimates are supported by abundance estimates from combined hair trap/bear rub closed population models and are consistent with a system that is likely driven by high levels of human-caused mortality. Our results suggest that bear rub surveys would provide an efficient and powerful means to inventory and monitor grizzly bear populations in the Central Canadian Rocky Mountains. PMID:22567089

Toward accurate and precise estimates of lion density.

PubMed

Elliot, Nicholas B; Gopalaswamy, Arjun M

2017-08-01

Reliable estimates of animal density are fundamental to understanding ecological processes and population dynamics. Furthermore, their accuracy is vital to conservation because wildlife authorities rely on estimates to make decisions. However, it is notoriously difficult to accurately estimate density for wide-ranging carnivores that occur at low densities. In recent years, significant progress has been made in density estimation of Asian carnivores, but the methods have not been widely adapted to African carnivores, such as lions (Panthera leo). Although abundance indices for lions may produce poor inferences, they continue to be used to estimate density and inform management and policy. We used sighting data from a 3-month survey and adapted a Bayesian spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR) model to estimate spatial lion density in the Maasai Mara National Reserve and surrounding conservancies in Kenya. Our unstructured spatial capture-recapture sampling design incorporated search effort to explicitly estimate detection probability and density on a fine spatial scale, making our approach robust in the context of varying detection probabilities. Overall posterior mean lion density was estimated to be 17.08 (posterior SD 1.310) lions >1 year old/100 km 2 , and the sex ratio was estimated at 2.2 females to 1 male. Our modeling framework and narrow posterior SD demonstrate that SECR methods can produce statistically rigorous and precise estimates of population parameters, and we argue that they should be favored over less reliable abundance indices. Furthermore, our approach is flexible enough to incorporate different data types, which enables robust population estimates over relatively short survey periods in a variety of systems. Trend analyses are essential to guide conservation decisions but are frequently based on surveys of differing reliability. We therefore call for a unified framework to assess lion numbers in key populations to improve management and policy decisions. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

Black bear density in Glacier National Park, Montana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stetz, Jeff B.; Kendall, Katherine C.; Macleod, Amy C.

2013-01-01

We report the first abundance and density estimates for American black bears (Ursus americanus) in Glacier National Park (NP),Montana, USA.We used data from 2 independent and concurrent noninvasive genetic sampling methods—hair traps and bear rubs—collected during 2004 to generate individual black bear encounter histories for use in closed population mark–recapture models. We improved the precision of our abundance estimate by using noninvasive genetic detection events to develop individual-level covariates of sampling effort within the full and one-half mean maximum distance moved (MMDM) from each bear’s estimated activity center to explain capture probability heterogeneity and inform our estimate of the effective sampling area.Models including the one-halfMMDMcovariate received overwhelming Akaike’s Information Criterion support suggesting that buffering our study area by this distance would be more appropriate than no buffer or the full MMDM buffer for estimating the effectively sampled area and thereby density. Our modelaveraged super-population abundance estimate was 603 (95% CI¼522–684) black bears for Glacier NP. Our black bear density estimate (11.4 bears/100 km2, 95% CI¼9.9–13.0) was consistent with published estimates for populations that are sympatric with grizzly bears (U. arctos) and without access to spawning salmonids. Published 2013. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Products of the Strecker Synthesis as Indicators of Parent Body Conditions of the Murchison Meteorite

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lerner, Narcinda R.; Cooper, George W.; Chang, Sherwood (Technical Monitor)

1996-01-01

The Strecker synthesis, R2C=O + HCN + NH3 yields R2C(NH2)CN + H2O yields R2C(NH2)CO2H has been proposed as a source of amino acids in meteorites. The detection of carbonlyl compounds, the precursors of the amino acids in the Strecker synthesis, and a-hydroxy acids, important by-products of the Strecker synthesis, in the Murchison meteorite supports this conjecture. However, the following observations raise questions about the Strecker synthesis as the source of a-amino and a-hydroxy acids in Murchison: a) Imino acetic acids are also important by-products of the Strecker synthesis and have not been reported in Murchison. b) a-aminisobutyric acid (AIBA) is one of the most abundant amino acids in Murchison but the Strecker synthesis conducted at room temperature produced only small amounts of AIBA relative to other amino acids. c) If the a-amino and a-hydroxy acids observed in Murchison arose from a common precursor this ought to be reflected in their relative abundances, but the straight chain a-hydroxy acids appeared to be relatively abundant compared with the analogous a-amino acids. In order to address question a) we have examined a non-hydrolyzed aqueous extract of the Murchison meteorite. Imino di acetic acid, Imino propionic acetic acid and Imino butyric acetic acid (both isomers) have been identified in this fraction. The relative abundances of amino acids and imino acetic acids in this fraction are consistent with a Strecker synthesis at low temperature (263 K) as a origin of both the amino acids and the imino acetic acids found on Murchison. To deal with questions b) and c) we have carried out laboratory simulations of the Strecker synthesis. The starting concentrations for carbonlyl compounds used were based on estimates of what these concentrations might have been on the parent body. for the carbonyl compounds this estimate was determined by the amount of carbonyl compound found on Murchison plus the amounts of the corresponding amino acid and hydroxy acid found on Murchison and the rock to water ratio estimated by Clayton and Mayeda (1984). The cyanide concentration was that estimated by Peltzer et al. (1984). The ammonia concentration and pH were varied. We studied these mixtures at 298 K and 263 K. We found that high relative abundances of AIBA were produced at 263 K but not at 298 K. We only produced a-methyl a-amino hydroxy acids at 263 K with no initial ammonia. The abundances of a-amino acids, a-hydroxy acids and imino acids found on Murchison are consistent with a Strecker synthesis which took place at low temperature and with a low concentration of ammonia.

Estimating population density and connectivity of American mink using spatial capture-recapture

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fuller, Angela K.; Sutherland, Christopher S.; Royle, Andy; Hare, Matthew P.

2016-01-01

Estimating the abundance or density of populations is fundamental to the conservation and management of species, and as landscapes become more fragmented, maintaining landscape connectivity has become one of the most important challenges for biodiversity conservation. Yet these two issues have never been formally integrated together in a model that simultaneously models abundance while accounting for connectivity of a landscape. We demonstrate an application of using capture–recapture to develop a model of animal density using a least-cost path model for individual encounter probability that accounts for non-Euclidean connectivity in a highly structured network. We utilized scat detection dogs (Canis lupus familiaris) as a means of collecting non-invasive genetic samples of American mink (Neovison vison) individuals and used spatial capture–recapture models (SCR) to gain inferences about mink population density and connectivity. Density of mink was not constant across the landscape, but rather increased with increasing distance from city, town, or village centers, and mink activity was associated with water. The SCR model allowed us to estimate the density and spatial distribution of individuals across a 388 km2 area. The model was used to investigate patterns of space usage and to evaluate covariate effects on encounter probabilities, including differences between sexes. This study provides an application of capture–recapture models based on ecological distance, allowing us to directly estimate landscape connectivity. This approach should be widely applicable to provide simultaneous direct estimates of density, space usage, and landscape connectivity for many species.

Estimating population density and connectivity of American mink using spatial capture-recapture.

PubMed

Fuller, Angela K; Sutherland, Chris S; Royle, J Andrew; Hare, Matthew P

2016-06-01

Estimating the abundance or density of populations is fundamental to the conservation and management of species, and as landscapes become more fragmented, maintaining landscape connectivity has become one of the most important challenges for biodiversity conservation. Yet these two issues have never been formally integrated together in a model that simultaneously models abundance while accounting for connectivity of a landscape. We demonstrate an application of using capture-recapture to develop a model of animal density using a least-cost path model for individual encounter probability that accounts for non-Euclidean connectivity in a highly structured network. We utilized scat detection dogs (Canis lupus familiaris) as a means of collecting non-invasive genetic samples of American mink (Neovison vison) individuals and used spatial capture-recapture models (SCR) to gain inferences about mink population density and connectivity. Density of mink was not constant across the landscape, but rather increased with increasing distance from city, town, or village centers, and mink activity was associated with water. The SCR model allowed us to estimate the density and spatial distribution of individuals across a 388 km² area. The model was used to investigate patterns of space usage and to evaluate covariate effects on encounter probabilities, including differences between sexes. This study provides an application of capture-recapture models based on ecological distance, allowing us to directly estimate landscape connectivity. This approach should be widely applicable to provide simultaneous direct estimates of density, space usage, and landscape connectivity for many species.

Bumble bee nest abundance, foraging distance, and host-plant reproduction: implications for management and conservation.

PubMed

Geib, Jennifer C; Strange, James P; Galenj, Candace

2015-04-01

Recent reports of global declines in pollinator species imply an urgent need to assess the abundance of native pollinators and density-dependent benefits for linked plants. In this study, we investigated (1) pollinator nest distributions and estimated colony abundances, (2) the relationship between abundances of foraging workers and the number of nests they represent, (3) pollinator foraging ranges, and (4) the relationship between pollinator abundance and plant reproduction. We examined these questions in an alpine ecosystem in the Colorado Rocky Mountains, focusing on four alpine bumble bee species (Bombus balteatus, B. flavifrons, B. bifarius, and B. sylvicola), and two host plants that differ in their degrees of pollinator specialization (Trifolium dasyphyllum and T. parryi). Using microsatellites, we found that estimated colony abundances among Bombus species ranged from ~18 to 78 colonies/0.01 km2. The long-tongued species B. balteatus was most common, especially high above treeline, but the subalpine species B. bifarius was unexpectedly abundant for this elevation range. Nests detected among sampled foragers of each species were correlated with the number of foragers caught. Foraging ranges were smaller than expected for all Bombus species, ranging from 25 to 110 m. Fruit set for the specialized plant, Trifolium parryi, was positively related to the abundance of its Bombus pollinator. In contrast, fruit set for the generalized plant, T. dasyphyllum, was related to abundance of all Bombus species. Because forager abundance was related to nest abundance of each Bombus species and was an equally effective predictor of plant fecundity, forager inventories are probably suitable for assessing the health of outcrossing plant populations. However, nest abundance, rather than forager abundance, better reflects demographic and genetic health in populations of eusocial pollinators such as bumble bees. Development of models incorporating the parameters we have measured here (nest abundance, forager abundance, and foraging distance) could increase the usefulness of foraging worker inventories in nionitoring, managing, and conserving pollinator populations.

Cultural traditions across a migratory network shape the genetic structure of southern right whales around Australia and New Zealand

PubMed Central

Carroll, E. L.; Baker, C. S.; Watson, M.; Alderman, R.; Bannister, J.; Gaggiotti, O. E.; Gröcke, D. R.; Patenaude, N.; Harcourt, R.

2015-01-01

Fidelity to migratory destinations is an important driver of connectivity in marine and avian species. Here we assess the role of maternally directed learning of migratory habitats, or migratory culture, on the population structure of the endangered Australian and New Zealand southern right whale. Using DNA profiles, comprising mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) haplotypes (500 bp), microsatellite genotypes (17 loci) and sex from 128 individually-identified whales, we find significant differentiation among winter calving grounds based on both mtDNA haplotype (FST = 0.048, ΦST = 0.109, p < 0.01) and microsatellite allele frequencies (FST = 0.008, p < 0.01), consistent with long-term fidelity to calving areas. However, most genetic comparisons of calving grounds and migratory corridors were not significant, supporting the idea that whales from different calving grounds mix in migratory corridors. Furthermore, we find a significant relationship between δ13C stable isotope profiles of 66 Australian southern right whales, a proxy for feeding ground location, and both mtDNA haplotypes and kinship inferred from microsatellite-based estimators of relatedness. This indicates migratory culture may influence genetic structure on feeding grounds. This fidelity to migratory destinations is likely to influence population recovery, as long-term estimates of historical abundance derived from estimates of genetic diversity indicate the South Pacific calving grounds remain at <10% of pre-whaling abundance. PMID:26548756

Tigers and their prey: Predicting carnivore densities from prey abundance

USGS Publications Warehouse

Karanth, K.U.; Nichols, J.D.; Kumar, N.S.; Link, W.A.; Hines, J.E.

2004-01-01

The goal of ecology is to understand interactions that determine the distribution and abundance of organisms. In principle, ecologists should be able to identify a small number of limiting resources for a species of interest, estimate densities of these resources at different locations across the landscape, and then use these estimates to predict the density of the focal species at these locations. In practice, however, development of functional relationships between abundances of species and their resources has proven extremely difficult, and examples of such predictive ability are very rare. Ecological studies of prey requirements of tigers Panthera tigris led us to develop a simple mechanistic model for predicting tiger density as a function of prey density. We tested our model using data from a landscape-scale long-term (1995-2003) field study that estimated tiger and prey densities in 11 ecologically diverse sites across India. We used field techniques and analytical methods that specifically addressed sampling and detectability, two issues that frequently present problems in macroecological studies of animal populations. Estimated densities of ungulate prey ranged between 5.3 and 63.8 animals per km2. Estimated tiger densities (3.2-16.8 tigers per 100 km2) were reasonably consistent with model predictions. The results provide evidence of a functional relationship between abundances of large carnivores and their prey under a wide range of ecological conditions. In addition to generating important insights into carnivore ecology and conservation, the study provides a potentially useful model for the rigorous conduct of macroecological science.

Oceanic heterotrophic dinoflagellates: distribution, abundance, and role as microzooplankton

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lessard, E.J.

1984-01-01

The primary objectives of this thesis were to determine the distribution and abundance of heterotrophic dinoflagellates across the Gulf Stream system off Cape Hatteras and to assess the potential grazing impact of these microheterotrophs in plankton communities. A list of species encountered in this study and their trophic status based on epifluorescence is presented, as well as observations on the presence of external or internal symbionts. The abundance of heterotrophic dinoflagellates across the Gulf Stream region off Cape Hatteras was determined from bimonthly net tow samples over a year and from whole water samples in March. Their average abundance wasmore » twice that of net ciliates in the net plankton and ten times that of ciliates in the nanoplankton. An isotope technique was developed to measure grazing rates of individual dinoflaggellates and other microzooplankton which cannot be separated in natural populations on the basis of size. /sup 3/H-thymidine and /sup 14/C-bicarbonate were used to label natural heterotrophic (bacteria and bacterivores) and autotrophic (phytoplankton and herbivores) food, respectively. Estimates of the grazing impact of heterotrophic kinoflagellates relative to other groups of heterotrophs on phytoplankton and bacteria were made by combining abundance data and clearance rates. Such calculations suggested that heterotrophic dinoflagellates may be an important group of grazers in oceanic waters.« less

Palila abundance estimates and trend

USGS Publications Warehouse

Camp, Richad; Banko, Paul C.

2012-01-01

The Palila (Loxioides bailleui) is an endangered, seed-eating, finch-billed honeycreeper found only on Hawai`i Island. Once occurring on the islands of Kaua`i and O`ahu and Mauna Loa and Hualālai volcanoes of Hawai`i, Palila are now found only in subalpine, dry-forest habitats on Mauna Kea (Banko et al. 2002). Previous analyses showed that Palila numbers fluctuated throughout the 1980s and 1990s but declined rapidly and steadily since 2003 (Jacobi et al. 1996, Leonard et al. 2008, Banko et al. 2009, Gorresen et al. 2009, Banko et al. in press). The aim of this report is to update abundance estimates for the Palila based on the 2012 surveys. We assess Palila trends over two periods: 1) the long-term trend during 1998–2012 and 2) the short-term trajectory between 2003 and 2012. The first period evaluates the population trend for the entire time series since additional transects were established (Johnson et al. 2006). These additional transects were established to produce a more precise population estimate and provide more complete coverage of the Palila range. The initial year for short-term trajectory was chosen subjectively to coincide with the recent decline in the Palila population. Additionally, stations in the core Palila habitat were surveyed on two occasions in 2012, thus allowing us to address the question of how repeat samples improve estimate precision.

Cetacean distribution and abundance in relation to oceanographic domains on the eastern Bering Sea shelf, June and July of 2002, 2008, and 2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Friday, Nancy A.; Zerbini, Alexandre N.; Waite, Janice M.; Moore, Sue E.; Clapham, Phillip J.

2013-10-01

As part of the Bering Sea Project, cetacean surveys were conducted to describe distribution and estimate abundance on the eastern Bering Sea shelf. Three marine mammal observers conducted visual surveys along transect lines sampled during the Alaska Fisheries Science Center walleye pollock assessment survey in June and July of 2008 and 2010. Distribution and abundance in 2008 and 2010 (cold years) are compared with results from a similar survey conducted in 2002 (a warm year), as the only three years that the entire survey area was sampled; patterns largely match those previously observed. Abundance estimates for comparable areas in 2002, 2008 and 2010 were as follows: humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae): 231 (CV=0.63), 436 (CV=0.45), and 675 (CV=0.80); fin whales (Balaenoptera physalus): 419 (CV=0.33), 1368 (CV=0.34), and 1061 (CV=0.38); minke whales (Balaenoptera acutorostrata): 389 (CV=0.52), 517 (CV=0.69), and 2020 (CV=0.73); Dall's porpoise (Phocoenoides dalli): 35,303 (CV=0.53), 14,543 (CV=0.32), and 11,143 (CV=0.32); and harbor porpoise (Phocoena phocoena): 1971 (CV=0.46), 4056 (CV=0.40), and 833 (CV=0.66). It should be noted that these abundance estimates are not corrected for biases due to perception, availability, or responsive movement. Estimates for humpback, fin and minke whales increased from 2002 to 2010, while those for harbor and Dall's porpoise decreased; trends were significant for fin whales. It is likely that changes in estimated abundance are due at least in part to shifts in distribution and not just changes in overall population size. Annual abundance estimates were examined by oceanographic domain. Humpback whales were consistently concentrated in coastal waters north of Unimak Pass. Fin whales were broadly distributed in the outer domain and slope in 2008 and 2010, but sightings were sparse in 2002. Minke whales were distributed throughout the study area in 2002 and 2008, but in 2010 they were concentrated in the outer domain and slope. In 2002, Dall's porpoise were sighted on the western edge of the middle domain and in the outer domain and slope, but shifted west out of the middle domain in 2008 and 2010. In 2002 and 2008, harbor porpoise were consistently found in the middle domain with scattered sightings in the outer domain and slope. In 2010, there was a multi-species aggregation between Navarin and Pervenets canyons.

Integration of Harvest and Time-to-Event Data Used to Estimate Demographic Parameters for White-tailed Deer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Norton, Andrew S.

An integral component of managing game species is an understanding of population dynamics and relative abundance. Harvest data are frequently used to estimate abundance of white-tailed deer. Unless harvest age-structure is representative of the population age-structure and harvest vulnerability remains constant from year to year, these data alone are of limited value. Additional model structure and auxiliary information has accommodated this shortcoming. Specifically, integrated age-at-harvest (AAH) state-space population models can formally combine multiple sources of data, and regularization via hierarchical model structure can increase flexibility of model parameters. I collected known fates data, which I evaluated and used to inform trends in survival parameters for an integrated AAH model. I used temperature and snow depth covariates to predict survival outside of the hunting season, and opening weekend temperature and percent of corn harvest covariates to predict hunting season survival. When auxiliary empirical data were unavailable for the AAH model, moderately informative priors provided sufficient information for convergence and parameter estimates. The AAH model was most sensitive to errors in initial abundance, but this error was calibrated after 3 years. Among vital rates, the AAH model was most sensitive to reporting rates (percentage of mortality during the hunting season related to harvest). The AAH model, using only harvest data, was able to track changing abundance trends due to changes in survival rates even when prior models did not inform these changes (i.e. prior models were constant when truth varied). I also compared AAH model results with estimates from the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources (WIDNR). Trends in abundance estimates from both models were similar, although AAH model predictions were systematically higher than WIDNR estimates in the East study area. When I incorporated auxiliary information (i.e. integrated AAH model) about survival outside the hunting season from known fates data, predicted trends appeared more closely related to what was expected. Disagreements between the AAH model and WIDNR estimates in the East were likely related to biased predictions for reporting and survival rates from the AAH model.

Assessing the suitability of benthic foraminiferal morpho-groups to reconstruct paleomonsoon from Bay of Bengal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manasa, M.; Saraswat, Rajeev; Nigam, Rajiv

2016-04-01

Temporal changes in benthic foraminiferal morpho-groups were suggested as an effective proxy to reconstruct past monsoon intensity from the Arabian Sea. Here, in order to test the applicability of temporal variation in morpho-groups to reconstruct past monsoon intensity from the Bay of Bengal, we have documented recent benthic foraminiferal distribution from the continental shelf region of the northwestern Bay of Bengal. Based on the external morphology, benthic foraminifera were categorized into rounded symmetrical (RSBF) and angular asymmetrical benthic foraminifera (AABF). Additionally, a few other dominant groups were also identified based on test composition (agglutinated, calcareous) and abundance (Asterorotalids and Nonions). The relative abundance of each group was compared with the ambient physico-chemical conditions, including dissolved oxygen, organic matter, salinity and temperature. We report that the RSBF are abundant in comparatively warm and well oxygenated waters of low salinity, suggesting a preference for high energy environment, whereas AABF dominate relatively cold, hypersaline deeper waters with low dissolved oxygen, indicating a low energy environment. The agglutinated foraminifera, Asterorotalids and Nonions dominate shallow water, low salinity regions, whereas the calcareous benthic foraminiferal abundance increases away from the riverine influx regions. Food availability, as estimated from organic carbon abundance in sediments, has comparatively less influence on faunal distribution in the northwestern Bay of Bengal, as compared to dissolved oxygen, temperature and salinity. We conclude that the factors associated with freshwater influx affect the distribution of benthic foraminiferal morpho-groups in the northwestern Bay of Bengal and thus it can be used to reconstruct past monsoon intensity from the Bay of Bengal.

Estimating bighorn sheep (Ovis Canadensis) abundance using noninvasive sampling at a mineral lick within a national park wilderness area

Treesearch

Kathryn A. Schoenecker; Mary Kay Watry; Laura E. Ellison; Michael K. Schwartz; Gordon L. Luikart

2015-01-01

Conservation of species requires accurate population estimates. We used genetic markers from feces to determine bighorn sheep abundance for a herd that was hypothesized to be declining and in need of population status monitoring. We sampled from a small but accessible portion of the population’s range where animals naturally congregate at a natural mineral lick to test...

Empirical relationships among atmospheric variables from rawinsonde and field data as surrogates for AVIRIS measurements: Estimation of regional land surface evapotranspiration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Conel, James E.; Hoover, Gordon; Nolin, Anne; Alley, Ron; Margolis, Jack

1992-01-01

Empirical relationships between variables are ways of securing estimates of quantities difficult to measure by remote sensing methods. The use of empirical functions was explored between: (1) atmospheric column moisture abundance W (gm H2O/cm(sup 2) and surface absolute water vapor density rho(q-bar) (gm H2O/cm(sup 3), with rho density of moist air (gm/cm(sup 3), q-bar specific humidity (gm H2O/gm moist air), and (2) column abundance and surface moisture flux E (gm H2O/(cm(sup 2)sec)) to infer regional evapotranspiration from Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometers (AVIRIS) water vapor mapping data. AVIRIS provides, via analysis of atmospheric water absorption features, estimates of column moisture abundance at very high mapping rate (at approximately 100 km(sup 2)/40 sec) over large areas at 20 m ground resolution.

Juvenile Chinook Salmon abundance in the northern Bering Sea: Implications for future returns and fisheries in the Yukon River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murphy, James M.; Howard, Kathrine G.; Gann, Jeanette C.; Cieciel, Kristin C.; Templin, William D.; Guthrie, Charles M.

2017-01-01

Juvenile Chinook Salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) abundance in the northern Bering Sea is used to provide insight into future returns and fisheries in the Yukon River. The status of Yukon River Chinook Salmon is of concern due to recent production declines and subsequent closures of commercial, sport, and personal use fisheries, and severe restrictions on subsistence fisheries in the Yukon River. Surface trawl catch data, mixed layer depth adjustments, and genetic stock mixtures are used to estimate juvenile abundance for the Canadian-origin stock group from the Yukon River. Abundance ranged from a low of 0.62 million in 2012 to a high of 2.58 million in 2013 with an overall average of 1.5 million from 2003 to 2015. Although abundance estimates indicate that average survival is relatively low (average of 5.2%), juvenile abundance was significantly correlated (r=0.87, p=0.005) with adult returns, indicating that much of the variability in survival occurs during early life-history stages (freshwater and initial marine). Juvenile abundance in the northern Bering Sea has increased since 2013 due to an increase in early life-history survival (average juveniles-per-spawner increased from 29 to 59). The increase in juvenile abundance is projected to produce larger runs and increased subsistence fishing opportunities for Chinook Salmon in the Yukon River as early as 2016.

One Percent Determination of the Primordial Deuterium Abundance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cooke, Ryan J.; Pettini, Max; Steidel, Charles C.

2018-03-01

We report a reanalysis of a near-pristine absorption system, located at a redshift {z}abs}=2.52564 toward the quasar Q1243+307, based on the combination of archival and new data obtained with the HIRES echelle spectrograph on the Keck telescope. This absorption system, which has an oxygen abundance [O/H] = ‑2.769 ± 0.028 (≃1/600 of the solar abundance), is among the lowest metallicity systems currently known where a precise measurement of the deuterium abundance is afforded. Our detailed analysis of this system concludes, on the basis of eight D I absorption lines, that the deuterium abundance of this gas cloud is {log}}10({{D}}/{{H}})=-4.622+/- 0.015, which is in very good agreement with the results previously reported by Kirkman et al., but with an improvement on the precision of this single measurement by a factor of ∼3.5. Combining this new estimate with our previous sample of six high precision and homogeneously analyzed D/H measurements, we deduce that the primordial deuterium abundance is {log}}10{({{D}}/{{H}})}{{P}}=-4.5974+/- 0.0052 or, expressed as a linear quantity, {10}5{({{D}}/{{H}})}{{P}}=2.527+/- 0.030; this value corresponds to a one percent determination of the primordial deuterium abundance. Combining our result with a big bang nucleosynthesis (BBN) calculation that uses the latest nuclear physics input, we find that the baryon density derived from BBN agrees to within 2σ of the latest results from the Planck cosmic microwave background data. Based on observations collected at the W.M. Keck Observatory which is operated as a scientific partnership among the California Institute of Technology, the University of California, and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. The Observatory was made possible by the generous financial support of the W.M. Keck Foundation.

Estimation and correction of visibility bias in aerial surveys of wintering ducks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pearse, A.T.; Gerard, P.D.; Dinsmore, S.J.; Kaminski, R.M.; Reinecke, K.J.

2008-01-01

Incomplete detection of all individuals leading to negative bias in abundance estimates is a pervasive source of error in aerial surveys of wildlife, and correcting that bias is a critical step in improving surveys. We conducted experiments using duck decoys as surrogates for live ducks to estimate bias associated with surveys of wintering ducks in Mississippi, USA. We found detection of decoy groups was related to wetland cover type (open vs. forested), group size (1?100 decoys), and interaction of these variables. Observers who detected decoy groups reported counts that averaged 78% of the decoys actually present, and this counting bias was not influenced by either covariate cited above. We integrated this sightability model into estimation procedures for our sample surveys with weight adjustments derived from probabilities of group detection (estimated by logistic regression) and count bias. To estimate variances of abundance estimates, we used bootstrap resampling of transects included in aerial surveys and data from the bias-correction experiment. When we implemented bias correction procedures on data from a field survey conducted in January 2004, we found bias-corrected estimates of abundance increased 36?42%, and associated standard errors increased 38?55%, depending on species or group estimated. We deemed our method successful for integrating correction of visibility bias in an existing sample survey design for wintering ducks in Mississippi, and we believe this procedure could be implemented in a variety of sampling problems for other locations and species.

Retrieval of free-tropospheric BrO from MAX-DOAS measurements at the high-altitude alpine station of Jungfraujoch

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Roozendael, Michel; Hendrick, Francois; De Smedt, Isabelle; Fayt, Caroline; Gielen, Clio; Hermans, Christian; Pinardi, Gaia; Tack, Frederik; Theys, Nicolas

2014-05-01

There are currently many open questions about the sources, transport, and photochemical processing that control the abundance of BrO and its precursors in the global troposphere. Recent experimental studies based on various platforms and instrumentations indicate contrasting results reflecting the scarcity of the measurements and the experimental challenge of quantifying the typically low abundance levels of BrO. Modeling studies indicate however that the presence of only 1-2 pptv levels of reactive bromine has important consequences for free tropospheric ozone with indirect climate implications. The MAX-DOAS technique offers high sensitivity for near-surface trace gas measurements and it is well suited to BrO detection. From a high altitude site such as the Jungfraujoch which is located in the Swiss Alps at about 3600 m ASL, the free-troposphere can be sampled under favourable conditions. We report on attempts to quantify the free tropospheric BrO level based on MAXDOAS measurements performed by BIRA-IASB in the period from June 2010 until December 2012. Retrievals are based on the DOAS method followed by vertical profile inversion using an Optimal Estimation scheme. The possible sources of bias that can affect the spectral retrieval of BrO are carefully investigated and various sensitivity tests are performed to assess the stability of the inversion. Results are compared with independent estimates of the mid-latitude tropospheric BrO based on satellite measurements.

Abundance and diversity of microbial inhabitants in European spacecraft-associated clean rooms.

PubMed

Stieglmeier, Michaela; Rettberg, Petra; Barczyk, Simon; Bohmeier, Maria; Pukall, Rüdiger; Wirth, Reinhard; Moissl-Eichinger, Christine

2012-06-01

The determination of the microbial load of a spacecraft en route to interesting extraterrestrial environments is mandatory and currently based on the culturable, heat-shock-surviving portion of microbial contaminants. Our study compared these classical bioburden measurements as required by NASA's and ESA's guidelines for the microbial examination of flight hardware, with molecular analysis methods (16S rRNA gene cloning and quantitative PCR) to further develop our understanding of the diversity and abundance of the microbial communities of spacecraft-associated clean rooms. Three samplings of the Herschel Space Observatory and its surrounding clean rooms were performed in two different European facilities. Molecular analyses detected a broad diversity of microbes typically found in the human microbiome with three bacterial genera (Staphylococcus, Propionibacterium, and Brevundimonas) common to all three locations. Bioburden measurements revealed a low, but heterogeneous, abundance of spore-forming and other heat-resistant microorganisms. Total cell numbers estimated by quantitative real-time PCR were typically 3 orders of magnitude greater than those determined by viable counts, which indicates a tendency for traditional methods to underestimate the extent of clean room bioburden. Furthermore, the molecular methods allowed the detection of a much broader diversity than traditional culture-based methods.

Fundamental parameters of He-weak and He-strong stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cidale, L. S.; Arias, M. L.; Torres, A. F.; Zorec, J.; Frémat, Y.; Cruzado, A.

2007-06-01

Context: He-weak and He-strong stars are chemically peculiar AB objects whose He lines are anomalously weak or strong for their MK spectral type. The determination of fundamental parameters for these stars is often more complex than for normal stars due to their abundance anomalies. Aims: We discuss the determination of fundamental parameters: effective temperature, surface gravity, and visual and bolometric absolute magnitudes of He-weak and He-strong stars. We compare our values with those derived independently from methods based on photometry and model fitting. Methods: We carried out low resolution spectroscopic observations in the wavelength range 3400-4700 Å of 20 He-weak and 8 He-strong stars to determine their fundamental parameters by means of the Divan-Chalonge-Barbier (BCD) spectrophotometric system. This system is based on the measurement of the continuum energy distribution around the Balmer discontinuity (BD). For a few He-weak stars we also estimate the effective temperatures and the angular diameters by integrating absolute fluxes observed over a wide spectral range. Non-LTE model calculations are carried out to study the influence of the He/H abundance ratio on the emergent radiation of He-strong stars and on their T_eff determination. Results: We find that the effective temperatures, surface gravities and bolometric absolute magnitudes of He-weak stars estimated with the BCD system and the integrated flux method are in good agreement between each other, and they also agree with previous determinations based on several different methods. The mean discrepancy between the visual absolute magnitudes derived using the hipparcos parallaxes and the BCD values is on average ±0.3 mag for He-weak stars, while it is ±0.5 mag for He-strong stars. For He-strong stars, we note that the BCD calibration, based on stars in the solar environment, leads to overestimated values of T_eff. By means of model atmosphere calculations with enhanced He/H abundance ratios we show that larger He/H ratios produce smaller BD which naturally explains the T_eff overestimation. We take advantage of these calculations to introduce a method to estimate the He/H abundance ratio in He-strong stars. The BD of HD 37479 suggests that the T_eff of this star remains fairly constant as the star spectrum undergoes changes in the intensity of H and He absorption lines. Data for the He-strong star HD 66765 are reported for the first time. Observations taken at CASLEO, operating under agreement of CONICET and the Universities of La Plata, Córdoba and San Juan, Argentina. Tables [see full text]-[see full text] and Appendix A are only available in electronic form at http://www.aanda.org

\\Space: A new code to estimate \\temp, \\logg, and elemental abundances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boeche, C.

2016-09-01

\\Space is a FORTRAN95 code that derives stellar parameters and elemental abundances from stellar spectra. To derive these parameters, \\Space does not measure equivalent widths of lines nor it uses templates of synthetic spectra, but it employs a new method based on a library of General Curve-Of-Growths. To date \\Space works on the wavelength range 5212-6860 Å and 8400-8921 Å, and at the spectral resolution R=2000-20000. Extensions of these limits are possible. \\Space is a highly automated code suitable for application to large spectroscopic surveys. A web front end to this service is publicly available at http://dc.g-vo.org/SP_ACE together with the library and the binary code.

Abundances of carbon-enhanced metal-poor stars as constraints on their formation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hansen, C. J.; Nordström, B.; Hansen, T. T.; Kennedy, C. R.; Placco, V. M.; Beers, T. C.; Andersen, J.; Cescutti, G.; Chiappini, C.

2016-04-01

Context. An increasing fraction of carbon-enhanced metal-poor (CEMP) stars is found as their iron abundance, [Fe/H], decreases below [Fe/H] =-2.0. The CEMP-s stars have the highest absolute carbon abundances, [C/H], and are thought to owe their enrichment in carbon and the slow neutron-capture (s-process) elements to mass transfer from a former asymptotic giant branch (AGB) binary companion. The most Fe-poor CEMP stars are normally single, exhibit somewhat lower [C/H] than CEMP-s stars, but show no s-process element enhancement (CEMP-no stars). Abundance determinations of CNO offer clues to their formation sites. Aims: Our aim is to use the medium-resolution spectrograph X-Shooter/VLT to determine stellar parameters and abundances for C, N, Sr, and Ba in several classes of CEMP stars in order to further classify and constrain the astrophysical formation sites of these stars. Methods: Atmospheric parameters for our programme stars were estimated from a combination of V-K photometry, model isochrone fits, and estimates from a modified version of the SDSS/SEGUE spectroscopic pipeline. We then used X-Shooter spectra in conjunction with the 1D local thermodynamic equilibrium spectrum synthesis code MOOG, 1D ATLAS9 atmosphere models to derive stellar abundances, and, where possible, isotopic 12C/13C ratios. Results: Abundances (or limits) of C, N, Sr, and Ba are derived for a sample of 27 faint metal-poor stars for which the X-Shooter spectra have sufficient signal-to-noise ratios (S/N). These moderate resolution, low S/N (~10-40) spectra prove sufficient to perform limited chemical tagging and enable assignment of these stars into the CEMP subclasses (CEMP-s and CEMP-no). According to the derived abundances, 17 of our sample stars are CEMP-s and 3 are CEMP-no, while the remaining 7 are carbon-normal. For four CEMP stars, the subclassification remains uncertain, and two of them may be pulsating AGB stars. Conclusions: The derived stellar abundances trace the formation processes and sites of our sample stars. The [C/N] abundance ratio is useful for identifying stars with chemical compositions unaffected by internal mixing, and the [Sr/Ba] abundance ratio allows us to distinguish between CEMP-s stars with AGB progenitors and the CEMP-no stars. Suggested formation sites for the latter include faint supernovae with mixing and fallback and/or primordial, rapidly-rotating, massive stars (spinstars). X-Shooter spectra have thus proved to be valuable tools in the continued search for their origin. Based on observations obtained at ESO Paranal Observatory, programmes 084.D-0117(A) and 085.D-0041(A).

Mountain goat abundance and population trends in the Olympic Mountains, Washington, 2011

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jenkins, Kurt; Happe, Patricia; Griffin, Paul C.; Beirne, Katherine; Hoffman, Roger; Baccus, William

2011-01-01

We conducted an aerial helicopter survey between July 18 and July 25, 2011, to estimate abundance and trends of introduced mountain goats (Oreamnos americanus) in the Olympic Mountains. The survey was the first since we developed a sightability correction model in 2008, which provided the means to estimate the number of mountain goats present in the surveyed areas and not seen during the aerial surveys, and to adjust for undercounting biases. Additionally, the count was the first since recent telemetry studies revealed that the previously defined survey zone, which was delineated at lower elevations by the 1,520-meter elevation contour, did not encompass all lands used by mountain goats during summer. We redefined the lower elevation boundary of survey units before conducting the 2011 surveys in an effort to more accurately estimate the entire mountain goat population. We surveyed 39 survey units, comprising 39 percent of the 59,615-hectare survey area. We estimated a mountain goat population of 344±44 (standard error, SE) in the expanded survey area. Based on this level of estimation uncertainty, the 95-percent confidence interval ranged from 258 to 430 mountain goats at the time of the survey. To permit comparisons of mountain goat populations between the 2004 and 2011 surveys, we recomputed population estimates derived from the 2004 survey using the newly developed bias correction methods, and we computed the 2004 and 2011 surveys based on comparable survey zone definitions (for example, using the boundaries of the 2004 survey). The recomputed estimates of mountain goat populations were 217±19 (SE) in 2004 and 303±41(SE) in 2011. The difference between the current 2011 population estimate (344±44[SE]) and the recomputed 2011 estimate (303±41[SE]) reflects the number of mountain goats counted in the expanded lower elevation portions of the survey zone added in 2011. We conclude that the population of mountain goats has increased in the Olympic Mountains at an average rate of 4.9±2.2(SE) percent annually since 2004. We caution that the estimated rate of population growth may be conservative if severe spring weather deterred some mountain goats from reaching the high-elevation survey areas during the 2011 surveys. If the estimated average rate of population growth were to remain constant in the future, then the population would double in approximately 14-15 years.

Reexamining Sample Size Requirements for Multivariate, Abundance-Based Community Research: When Resources are Limited, the Research Does Not Have to Be.

PubMed

Forcino, Frank L; Leighton, Lindsey R; Twerdy, Pamela; Cahill, James F

2015-01-01

Community ecologists commonly perform multivariate techniques (e.g., ordination, cluster analysis) to assess patterns and gradients of taxonomic variation. A critical requirement for a meaningful statistical analysis is accurate information on the taxa found within an ecological sample. However, oversampling (too many individuals counted per sample) also comes at a cost, particularly for ecological systems in which identification and quantification is substantially more resource consuming than the field expedition itself. In such systems, an increasingly larger sample size will eventually result in diminishing returns in improving any pattern or gradient revealed by the data, but will also lead to continually increasing costs. Here, we examine 396 datasets: 44 previously published and 352 created datasets. Using meta-analytic and simulation-based approaches, the research within the present paper seeks (1) to determine minimal sample sizes required to produce robust multivariate statistical results when conducting abundance-based, community ecology research. Furthermore, we seek (2) to determine the dataset parameters (i.e., evenness, number of taxa, number of samples) that require larger sample sizes, regardless of resource availability. We found that in the 44 previously published and the 220 created datasets with randomly chosen abundances, a conservative estimate of a sample size of 58 produced the same multivariate results as all larger sample sizes. However, this minimal number varies as a function of evenness, where increased evenness resulted in increased minimal sample sizes. Sample sizes as small as 58 individuals are sufficient for a broad range of multivariate abundance-based research. In cases when resource availability is the limiting factor for conducting a project (e.g., small university, time to conduct the research project), statistically viable results can still be obtained with less of an investment.

Spatially explicit population estimates for black bears based on cluster sampling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Humm, J.; McCown, J. Walter; Scheick, B.K.; Clark, Joseph D.

2017-01-01

We estimated abundance and density of the 5 major black bear (Ursus americanus) subpopulations (i.e., Eglin, Apalachicola, Osceola, Ocala-St. Johns, Big Cypress) in Florida, USA with spatially explicit capture-mark-recapture (SCR) by extracting DNA from hair samples collected at barbed-wire hair sampling sites. We employed a clustered sampling configuration with sampling sites arranged in 3 × 3 clusters spaced 2 km apart within each cluster and cluster centers spaced 16 km apart (center to center). We surveyed all 5 subpopulations encompassing 38,960 km2 during 2014 and 2015. Several landscape variables, most associated with forest cover, helped refine density estimates for the 5 subpopulations we sampled. Detection probabilities were affected by site-specific behavioral responses coupled with individual capture heterogeneity associated with sex. Model-averaged bear population estimates ranged from 120 (95% CI = 59–276) bears or a mean 0.025 bears/km2 (95% CI = 0.011–0.44) for the Eglin subpopulation to 1,198 bears (95% CI = 949–1,537) or 0.127 bears/km2 (95% CI = 0.101–0.163) for the Ocala-St. Johns subpopulation. The total population estimate for our 5 study areas was 3,916 bears (95% CI = 2,914–5,451). The clustered sampling method coupled with information on land cover was efficient and allowed us to estimate abundance across extensive areas that would not have been possible otherwise. Clustered sampling combined with spatially explicit capture-recapture methods has the potential to provide rigorous population estimates for a wide array of species that are extensive and heterogeneous in their distribution.

Estimation of maximum transdermal flux of nonionized xenobiotics from basic physicochemical determinants

PubMed Central

Milewski, Mikolaj; Stinchcomb, Audra L.

2012-01-01

An ability to estimate the maximum flux of a xenobiotic across skin is desirable both from the perspective of drug delivery and toxicology. While there is an abundance of mathematical models describing the estimation of drug permeability coefficients, there are relatively few that focus on the maximum flux. This article reports and evaluates a simple and easy-to-use predictive model for the estimation of maximum transdermal flux of xenobiotics based on three common molecular descriptors: logarithm of octanol-water partition coefficient, molecular weight and melting point. The use of all three can be justified on the theoretical basis of their influence on the solute aqueous solubility and the partitioning into the stratum corneum lipid domain. The model explains 81% of the variability in the permeation dataset comprised of 208 entries and can be used to obtain a quick estimate of maximum transdermal flux when experimental data is not readily available. PMID:22702370

High-resolution abundance analysis of the metallic-line star HR 7250

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elmaslı, Aslı; Ünal, Kübraözge; Çalışkan, Şeyma

2018-07-01

We estimated the stellar parameters and chemical abundances of the highly neglected A-type star HR 7250. The star's high resolution spectrum, spanning a wavelength range from 3900 to 7900 Å, was obtained at the TÜBİTAK National Observatory. We derived the abundances of 14 elements (O, Na, Mg, Si, S, Ca, Sc, Ti, Cr, Fe, Ni, Sr, Y, and Ba) for HR 7250 from the unblended lines of the star's spectrum. Our analysis shows that HR 7250 is a chemically peculiar Am star. We also estimated its age and mass as 400 ± 70 Myr and 3.25 ± 0.17 M⊙ from evolutionary tracks and isochrones.

Comparing population size estimators for plethodontid salamanders

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bailey, L.L.; Simons, T.R.; Pollock, K.H.

2004-01-01

Despite concern over amphibian declines, few studies estimate absolute abundances because of logistic and economic constraints and previously poor estimator performance. Two estimation approaches recommended for amphibian studies are mark-recapture and depletion (or removal) sampling. We compared abundance estimation via various mark-recapture and depletion methods, using data from a three-year study of terrestrial salamanders in Great Smoky Mountains National Park. Our results indicate that short-term closed-population, robust design, and depletion methods estimate surface population of salamanders (i.e., those near the surface and available for capture during a given sampling occasion). In longer duration studies, temporary emigration violates assumptions of both open- and closed-population mark-recapture estimation models. However, if the temporary emigration is completely random, these models should yield unbiased estimates of the total population (superpopulation) of salamanders in the sampled area. We recommend using Pollock's robust design in mark-recapture studies because of its flexibility to incorporate variation in capture probabilities and to estimate temporary emigration probabilities.

Using rates of oxygen and nitrate reduction to map the subsurface distribution of groundwater denitrification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kolbe, T.; De Dreuzy, J. R.; Abbott, B. W.; Aquilina, L.; Babey, T.; Green, C. T.; Fleckenstein, J. H.; Labasque, T.; Laverman, A.; Marçais, J.; Peiffer, S.; Thomas, Z.; Pinay, G.

2017-12-01

Widespread fertilizer application over the last 70 years has caused serious ecological and socioeconomic problems in aquatic and estuarine ecosystems. When surplus nitrogen leaches as nitrate (a major groundwater pollutant) to the aquifer, complex flow dynamics and naturally occurring degradation processes control its transport. Under the conditions of depleted oxygen and abundant electron donors, microorganisms reduce NO3- to N2 (denitrification). Denitrification rates vary over orders of magnitude among sites within the same aquifer, complicating estimation of denitrification capacity at the catchment scale. Because it is impractical or impossible to access the subsurface to directly quantify denitrification rates, reactivity is often assumed to occur continuous along flowlines, potentially resulting in substantial over- or underestimation of denitrification. Here we investigated denitrification in an unconfined crystalline aquifer in western France using a combination of common tracers (chlorofluorocarbons, O2, NO3-, and N2) measured in 16 wells to inform a time-based modeling approach. We found that spatially variable denitrification rates arise from the intersection of nitrate rich water with reactive zones defined by the abundance of electron donors (primarily pyrite). Furthermore, based on observed reaction rates of the sequential reduction of oxygen and nitrate, we present a general framework to estimate the location and intensity of the reactive zone in aquifers. Accounting for the vertical distribution of reaction rates results in large differences in estimations of net denitrification rates that assume homogeneous reactivity. This new framework provides a tractable approach for quantifying catchment and regional groundwater denitrification rates that could be used to improve estimation of groundwater resilience to nitrate pollution and develop more realistic management strategies.

Long term monitoring of jaguars in the Cockscomb Basin Wildlife Sanctuary, Belize; Implications for camera trap studies of carnivores.

PubMed

Harmsen, Bart J; Foster, Rebecca J; Sanchez, Emma; Gutierrez-González, Carmina E; Silver, Scott C; Ostro, Linde E T; Kelly, Marcella J; Kay, Elma; Quigley, Howard

2017-01-01

In this study, we estimate life history parameters and abundance for a protected jaguar population using camera-trap data from a 14-year monitoring program (2002-2015) in Belize, Central America. We investigated the dynamics of this jaguar population using 3,075 detection events of 105 individual adult jaguars. Using robust design open population models, we estimated apparent survival and temporary emigration and investigated individual heterogeneity in detection rates across years. Survival probability was high and constant among the years for both sexes (φ = 0.78), and the maximum (conservative) age recorded was 14 years. Temporary emigration rate for the population was random, but constant through time at 0.20 per year. Detection probability varied between sexes, and among years and individuals. Heterogeneity in detection took the form of a dichotomy for males: those with consistently high detection rates, and those with low, sporadic detection rates, suggesting a relatively stable population of 'residents' consistently present and a fluctuating layer of 'transients'. Female detection was always low and sporadic. On average, twice as many males than females were detected per survey, and individual detection rates were significantly higher for males. We attribute sex-based differences in detection to biases resulting from social variation in trail-walking behaviour. The number of individual females detected increased when the survey period was extended from 3 months to a full year. Due to the low detection rates of females and the variable 'transient' male subpopulation, annual abundance estimates based on 3-month surveys had low precision. To estimate survival and monitor population changes in elusive, wide-ranging, low-density species, we recommend repeated surveys over multiple years; and suggest that continuous monitoring over multiple years yields even further insight into population dynamics of elusive predator populations.

Spatial variations in mortality in pelagic early life stages of a marine fish (Gadus morhua)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Langangen, Øystein; Stige, Leif C.; Yaragina, Natalia A.; Ottersen, Geir; Vikebø, Frode B.; Stenseth, Nils Chr.

2014-09-01

Mortality of pelagic eggs and larvae of marine fish is often assumed to be constant both in space and time due to lacking information. This may, however, be a gross oversimplification, as early life stages are likely to experience large variations in mortality both in time and space. In this paper we develop a method for estimating the spatial variability in mortality of eggs and larvae. The method relies on survey data and physical-biological particle-drift models to predict the drift of ichthyoplankton. Furthermore, the method was used to estimate the spatially resolved mortality field in the egg and larval stages of Barents Sea cod (Gadus morhua). We analyzed data from the Barents Sea for the period between 1959 and 1993 when there are two surveys available: a spring and a summer survey. An individual-based physical-biological particle-drift model, tailored to the egg and larval stages of Barents Sea cod, was used to predict the drift trajectories from the observed stage-specific distributions in spring to the time of observation in the summer, a drift time of approximately 45 days. We interpreted the spatial patterns in the differences between the predicted and observed abundance distributions in summer as reflecting the spatial patterns in mortality over the drift period. Using the estimated mortality fields, we show that the spatial variations in mortality might have a significant impact on survival to later life stages and we suggest that there may be trade-offs between increased early survival in off shore regions and reduced probability of ending up in the favorable nursing grounds in the Barents Sea. In addition, we show that accounting for the estimated mortality field, improves the correlation between a simulated recruitment index and observation-based indices of juvenile abundance.

Modeling structured population dynamics using data from unmarked individuals

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Zipkin, Elise; Thorson, James T.; See, Kevin; Lynch, Heather J.; Kanno, Yoichiro; Chandler, Richard; Letcher, Benjamin H.; Royle, J. Andrew

2014-01-01

The study of population dynamics requires unbiased, precise estimates of abundance and vital rates that account for the demographic structure inherent in all wildlife and plant populations. Traditionally, these estimates have only been available through approaches that rely on intensive mark–recapture data. We extended recently developed N-mixture models to demonstrate how demographic parameters and abundance can be estimated for structured populations using only stage-structured count data. Our modeling framework can be used to make reliable inferences on abundance as well as recruitment, immigration, stage-specific survival, and detection rates during sampling. We present a range of simulations to illustrate the data requirements, including the number of years and locations necessary for accurate and precise parameter estimates. We apply our modeling framework to a population of northern dusky salamanders (Desmognathus fuscus) in the mid-Atlantic region (USA) and find that the population is unexpectedly declining. Our approach represents a valuable advance in the estimation of population dynamics using multistate data from unmarked individuals and should additionally be useful in the development of integrated models that combine data from intensive (e.g., mark–recapture) and extensive (e.g., counts) data sources.

Assessing the ecological base flow in an experimental watershed of Central Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Chiang; Yang, Ping-Shih; Tian, Pei-Ling

2010-05-01

The ecological base flow is crucial for the assessment and design for habitat rehabilitation and recovery. The amount of discharge affects the aquatic creatures and may damage the existence and balance of the community under extreme low conditions. Aquatic insect is selected as the target species in this study to evaluate the influence of the discharge and to estimate the ecological base flow. The distribution of the number of species and abundance (density) versus discharge is assessed to define the critical discharge. A stream located at the alpine area in central Taiwan is selected as the study area to evaluate the base flow. From the preliminary data (Aug 2008 to May 2009) collected from Creek C of Sitou watershed (area: 1.3 km^2) shows that the abundance of several species varies with the discharge. The dominate family and genus of aquatic insects is Baetidae (Order Ephemeroptera) and Baetis spp. that accounts for 26.3 and 17.2 %, respectively. The Hilsenhoff family biotic index (FBI) shows that the water quality is classified to "Excellent" and "Good" level while the EPT Index (Index of three orders: Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera) indicates that the stream is non-polluted. The discharge of base flow interpreted from the 90%, 95% and 96% curve of duration for the daily discharge is 0.1582, 0.0476 and 0.0378 cms; the threshold value evaluated by curve of abundance vs. discharge is 0.0154 cms. Consistent observations are yet to be collected to yield more accurate results.

Integrating population and genetic monitoring to understand changes in the abundance of a threatened seabird

Treesearch

Catalina Vásquez-Carrillo; R. William Henry; Laird Henkel; M. Zachariah Peery

2013-01-01

Population monitoring programs for threatened species are rarely designed to disentangle the effects of movements from changes in birth and death rates on estimated trends in abundance. Here, we illustrate how population and genetic monitoring can be integrated to understand the cause of large changes in the abundance of a threatened species of seabird, the Marbled...

Estimating modal abundances from the spectra of natural and laboratory pyroxene mixtures using the modified Gaussian model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sunshine, Jessica M.; Pieters, Carle M.

1993-01-01

The modified Gaussian model (MGM) is used to explore spectra of samples containing multiple pyroxene components as a function of modal abundance. The MGM allows spectra to be analyzed directly, without the use of actual or assumed end-member spectra and therefore holds great promise for remote applications. A series of mass fraction mixtures created from several different particle size fractions are analyzed with the MGM to quantify the properties of pyroxene mixtures as a function of both modal abundance and grain size. Band centers, band widths, and relative band strengths of absorptions from individual pyroxenes in mixture spectra are found to be largely independent of particle size. Spectral properties of both zoned and exsolved pyroxene components are resolved in exsolved samples using the MGM, and modal abundances are accurately estimated to within 5-10 percent without predetermined knowledge of the end-member spectra.

Practical Bias Correction in Aerial Surveys of Large Mammals: Validation of Hybrid Double-Observer with Sightability Method against Known Abundance of Feral Horse (Equus caballus) Populations

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Reliably estimating wildlife abundance is fundamental to effective management. Aerial surveys are one of the only spatially robust tools for estimating large mammal populations, but statistical sampling methods are required to address detection biases that affect accuracy and precision of the estimates. Although various methods for correcting aerial survey bias are employed on large mammal species around the world, these have rarely been rigorously validated. Several populations of feral horses (Equus caballus) in the western United States have been intensively studied, resulting in identification of all unique individuals. This provided a rare opportunity to test aerial survey bias correction on populations of known abundance. We hypothesized that a hybrid method combining simultaneous double-observer and sightability bias correction techniques would accurately estimate abundance. We validated this integrated technique on populations of known size and also on a pair of surveys before and after a known number was removed. Our analysis identified several covariates across the surveys that explained and corrected biases in the estimates. All six tests on known populations produced estimates with deviations from the known value ranging from -8.5% to +13.7% and <0.7 standard errors. Precision varied widely, from 6.1% CV to 25.0% CV. In contrast, the pair of surveys conducted around a known management removal produced an estimated change in population between the surveys that was significantly larger than the known reduction. Although the deviation between was only 9.1%, the precision estimate (CV = 1.6%) may have been artificially low. It was apparent that use of a helicopter in those surveys perturbed the horses, introducing detection error and heterogeneity in a manner that could not be corrected by our statistical models. Our results validate the hybrid method, highlight its potentially broad applicability, identify some limitations, and provide insight and guidance for improving survey designs. PMID:27139732

Practical Bias Correction in Aerial Surveys of Large Mammals: Validation of Hybrid Double-Observer with Sightability Method against Known Abundance of Feral Horse (Equus caballus) Populations.

PubMed

Lubow, Bruce C; Ransom, Jason I

2016-01-01

Reliably estimating wildlife abundance is fundamental to effective management. Aerial surveys are one of the only spatially robust tools for estimating large mammal populations, but statistical sampling methods are required to address detection biases that affect accuracy and precision of the estimates. Although various methods for correcting aerial survey bias are employed on large mammal species around the world, these have rarely been rigorously validated. Several populations of feral horses (Equus caballus) in the western United States have been intensively studied, resulting in identification of all unique individuals. This provided a rare opportunity to test aerial survey bias correction on populations of known abundance. We hypothesized that a hybrid method combining simultaneous double-observer and sightability bias correction techniques would accurately estimate abundance. We validated this integrated technique on populations of known size and also on a pair of surveys before and after a known number was removed. Our analysis identified several covariates across the surveys that explained and corrected biases in the estimates. All six tests on known populations produced estimates with deviations from the known value ranging from -8.5% to +13.7% and <0.7 standard errors. Precision varied widely, from 6.1% CV to 25.0% CV. In contrast, the pair of surveys conducted around a known management removal produced an estimated change in population between the surveys that was significantly larger than the known reduction. Although the deviation between was only 9.1%, the precision estimate (CV = 1.6%) may have been artificially low. It was apparent that use of a helicopter in those surveys perturbed the horses, introducing detection error and heterogeneity in a manner that could not be corrected by our statistical models. Our results validate the hybrid method, highlight its potentially broad applicability, identify some limitations, and provide insight and guidance for improving survey designs.

Species and size selectivity of two midwater trawls used in an acoustic survey of the Alaska Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Robertis, Alex; Taylor, Kevin; Williams, Kresimir; Wilson, Christopher D.

2017-01-01

Acoustic-trawl (AT) survey methods are widely used to estimate the abundance and distribution of pelagic organisms. This technique relies on estimates of size and species composition from trawl catches along with estimates of the acoustic properties of these animals to convert measurements of acoustic backscatter into animal abundance. However, trawls are selective samplers, and if the catch does not represent the size and species composition of the animals in the acoustic beam the resulting abundance estimates will be biased. We conducted an experiment to quantify trawl selectivity for species encountered during an AT survey of the Alaska Arctic. The pelagic assemblage in this environment was dominated by small young-of-the-year (age-0) fishes and jellyfish, which may be poorly retained in trawls. A large midwater trawl (Cantrawl) and a smaller midwater trawl (modified Marinovich) were used during the survey. The Marinovich was equipped with 8 small-mesh recapture nets which were used to estimate the probability that an individual that enters the trawl is retained. In addition, paired hauls were made with the Cantrawl and Marinovich to estimate the difference in selectivity between the two trawls. A statistical model was developed to combine the catches of the recapture nets and the paired hauls to estimate the length-dependent selectivity of the trawls for the most abundant species (e.g., age-0 fishes and jellyfish). The analysis indicated that there was substantial size and species selectivity: although the modified Marinovich generally had a higher catch per unit effort, many of the animals encountered in this environment were poorly retained by both trawls. The observed size and species selectivity of the trawls can be used to select appropriate nets for sampling pelagic fishes, and correct survey estimates for the biases introduced in the trawl capture process.

Estimating the number of recreational anglers for a given waterbody

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pope, Kevin L.; Powell, Larkin A.; Harmon, Brian S.; Pegg, Mark A.; Chizinski, Christopher J.

2017-01-01

Knowing how many anglers use a given body of water is paramount for understanding components of a fishery related to angling pressure and harvest, yet no study has attempted to provide an estimate of the population size of anglers for a given waterbody. Here, we use information from creel surveys in a removal-sampling framework to estimate total numbers of anglers using six reservoirs in Nebraska, USA, and we examine the influence of the duration of sampling period on those estimates. Population estimates (N ± SE) of unique anglers were 2050 ± 45 for Branched Oak Lake, 1992 ± 29 for Calamus Reservoir, 929 ± 10 for Harlan County Reservoir, 985 ± 24 for Lake McConaughy, 1277 ± 24 for Merritt Reservoir, and 916 ± 18 for Pawnee Lake during April–October 2015. Shortening the sampling period by one or more months generally resulted in a greater effect on estimates of precision than on estimates of overall abundance. No relationship existed between abundances of unique anglers and angling pressures across reservoirs and sampling duration, indicative of a decoupling of angler abundance and angling pressure. The approach outlined herein has potential to provide defendable answers to “how many are there?”, questions we ask when subjects cannot be marked, which should provide new insights about angler populations and subpopulations.

Measuring and modeling the lifetime of nitrous oxide including its variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prather, Michael J.; Hsu, Juno; DeLuca, Nicole M.; Jackman, Charles H.; Oman, Luke D.; Douglass, Anne R.; Fleming, Eric L.; Strahan, Susan E.; Steenrod, Stephen D.; Søvde, O. Amund; Isaksen, Ivar S. A.; Froidevaux, Lucien; Funke, Bernd

2015-06-01

The lifetime of nitrous oxide, the third-most-important human-emitted greenhouse gas, is based to date primarily on model studies or scaling to other gases. This work calculates a semiempirical lifetime based on Microwave Limb Sounder satellite measurements of stratospheric profiles of nitrous oxide, ozone, and temperature; laboratory cross-section data for ozone and molecular oxygen plus kinetics for O(1D); the observed solar spectrum; and a simple radiative transfer model. The result is 116 ± 9 years. The observed monthly-to-biennial variations in lifetime and tropical abundance are well matched by four independent chemistry-transport models driven by reanalysis meteorological fields for the period of observation (2005-2010), but all these models overestimate the lifetime due to lower abundances in the critical loss region near 32 km in the tropics. These models plus a chemistry-climate model agree on the nitrous oxide feedback factor on its own lifetime of 0.94 ± 0.01, giving N2O perturbations an effective residence time of 109 years. Combining this new empirical lifetime with model estimates of residence time and preindustrial lifetime (123 years) adjusts our best estimates of the human-natural balance of emissions today and improves the accuracy of projected nitrous oxide increases over this century.

Impact of JPEG2000 compression on endmember extraction and unmixing of remotely sensed hyperspectral data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, Gabriel; Gonzalez-Ruiz, Vicente; Plaza, Antonio; Ortiz, Juan P.; Garcia, Inmaculada

2010-07-01

Lossy hyperspectral image compression has received considerable interest in recent years due to the extremely high dimensionality of the data. However, the impact of lossy compression on spectral unmixing techniques has not been widely studied. These techniques characterize mixed pixels (resulting from insufficient spatial resolution) in terms of a suitable combination of spectrally pure substances (called endmembers) weighted by their estimated fractional abundances. This paper focuses on the impact of JPEG2000-based lossy compression of hyperspectral images on the quality of the endmembers extracted by different algorithms. The three considered algorithms are the orthogonal subspace projection (OSP), which uses only spatial information, and the automatic morphological endmember extraction (AMEE) and spatial spectral endmember extraction (SSEE), which integrate both spatial and spectral information in the search for endmembers. The impact of compression on the resulting abundance estimation based on the endmembers derived by different methods is also substantiated. Experimental results are conducted using a hyperspectral data set collected by NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory over the Cuprite mining district in Nevada. The experimental results are quantitatively analyzed using reference information available from U.S. Geological Survey, resulting in recommendations to specialists interested in applying endmember extraction and unmixing algorithms to compressed hyperspectral data.

Measuring and modeling the lifetime of nitrous oxide including its variability

DOE PAGES

Prather, Michael J.; Hsu, Juno; DeLuca, Nicole M.; ...

2015-05-14

The lifetime of nitrous oxide, the third-most-important human-emitted greenhouse gas, is based to date primarily on model studies or scaling to other gases. This work calculates a semiempirical lifetime based on Microwave Limb Sounder satellite measurements of stratospheric profiles of nitrous oxide, ozone, and temperature; laboratory cross-section data for ozone and molecular oxygen plus kinetics for O( 1D); the observed solar spectrum; and a simple radiative transfer model. The result is 116 ± 9 years. The observed monthly-to-biennial variations in lifetime and tropical abundance are well matched by four independent chemistry-transport models driven by reanalysis meteorological fields for the periodmore » of observation (2005–2010), but all these models overestimate the lifetime due to lower abundances in the critical loss region near 32 km in the tropics. These models plus a chemistry-climate model agree on the nitrous oxide feedback factor on its own lifetime of 0.94 ± 0.01, giving N 2O perturbations an effective residence time of 109 years. Combining this new empirical lifetime with model estimates of residence time and preindustrial lifetime (123 years) adjusts our best estimates of the human-natural balance of emissions today and improves the accuracy of projected nitrous oxide increases over this century.« less

The global abundance and size distribution of lakes, ponds, and impoundments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Downing, J.A.; Prairie, Y.T.; Cole, J.J.; Duarte, C.M.; Tranvik, L.J.; Striegl, Robert G.; McDowell, W.H.; Kortelainen, Pirkko; Caraco, N.F.; Melack, J.M.; Middelburg, J.J.

2006-01-01

One of the major impediments to the integration of lentic ecosystems into global environmental analyses has been fragmentary data on the extent and size distribution of lakes, ponds, and impoundments. We use new data sources, enhanced spatial resolution, and new analytical approaches to provide new estimates of the global abundance of surface-water bodies. A global model based on the Pareto distribution shows that the global extent of natural lakes is twice as large as previously known (304 million lakes; 4.2 million km 2 in area) and is dominated in area by millions of water bodies smaller than 1 km2. Similar analyses of impoundments based on inventories of large, engineered dams show that impounded waters cover approximately 0.26 million km2. However, construction of low-tech farm impoundments is estimated to be between 0.1 % and 6% of farm area worldwide, dependent upon precipitation, and represents >77,000 km 2 globally, at present. Overall, about 4.6 million km2 of the earth's continental "land" surface (>3%) is covered by water. These analyses underscore the importance of explicitly considering lakes, ponds, and impoundments, especially small ones, in global analyses of rates and processes. ?? 2006, by the American Society of Limnology and Oceanography, Inc.

Refining estimates of availability bias to improve assessments of the conservation status of an endangered dolphin.

PubMed

Sucunza, Federico; Danilewicz, Daniel; Cremer, Marta; Andriolo, Artur; Zerbini, Alexandre N

2018-01-01

Estimation of visibility bias is critical to accurately compute abundance of wild populations. The franciscana, Pontoporia blainvillei, is considered the most threatened small cetacean in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. Aerial surveys are considered the most effective method to estimate abundance of this species, but many existing estimates have been considered unreliable because they lack proper estimation of correction factors for visibility bias. In this study, helicopter surveys were conducted to determine surfacing-diving intervals of franciscanas and to estimate availability for aerial platforms. Fifteen hours were flown and 101 groups of 1 to 7 franciscanas were monitored, resulting in a sample of 248 surface-dive cycles. The mean surfacing interval and diving interval times were 16.10 seconds (SE = 9.74) and 39.77 seconds (SE = 29.06), respectively. Availability was estimated at 0.39 (SE = 0.01), a value 16-46% greater than estimates computed from diving parameters obtained from boats or from land. Generalized mixed-effects models were used to investigate the influence of biological and environmental predictors on the proportion of time franciscana groups are visually available to be seen from an aerial platform. These models revealed that group size was the main factor influencing the proportion at surface. The use of negatively biased estimates of availability results in overestimation of abundance, leads to overly optimistic assessments of extinction probabilities and to potentially ineffective management actions. This study demonstrates that estimates of availability must be computed from suitable platforms to ensure proper conservation decisions are implemented to protect threatened species such as the franciscana.

Refining estimates of availability bias to improve assessments of the conservation status of an endangered dolphin

PubMed Central

Danilewicz, Daniel; Cremer, Marta; Andriolo, Artur; Zerbini, Alexandre N.

2018-01-01

Estimation of visibility bias is critical to accurately compute abundance of wild populations. The franciscana, Pontoporia blainvillei, is considered the most threatened small cetacean in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. Aerial surveys are considered the most effective method to estimate abundance of this species, but many existing estimates have been considered unreliable because they lack proper estimation of correction factors for visibility bias. In this study, helicopter surveys were conducted to determine surfacing-diving intervals of franciscanas and to estimate availability for aerial platforms. Fifteen hours were flown and 101 groups of 1 to 7 franciscanas were monitored, resulting in a sample of 248 surface-dive cycles. The mean surfacing interval and diving interval times were 16.10 seconds (SE = 9.74) and 39.77 seconds (SE = 29.06), respectively. Availability was estimated at 0.39 (SE = 0.01), a value 16–46% greater than estimates computed from diving parameters obtained from boats or from land. Generalized mixed-effects models were used to investigate the influence of biological and environmental predictors on the proportion of time franciscana groups are visually available to be seen from an aerial platform. These models revealed that group size was the main factor influencing the proportion at surface. The use of negatively biased estimates of availability results in overestimation of abundance, leads to overly optimistic assessments of extinction probabilities and to potentially ineffective management actions. This study demonstrates that estimates of availability must be computed from suitable platforms to ensure proper conservation decisions are implemented to protect threatened species such as the franciscana. PMID:29534086

Monitoring benthic aIgal communides: A comparison of targeted and coefficient sampling methods

USGS Publications Warehouse

Edwards, Matthew S.; Tinker, M. Tim

2009-01-01

Choosing an appropriate sample unit is a fundamental decision in the design of ecological studies. While numerous methods have been developed to estimate organism abundance, they differ in cost, accuracy and precision.Using both field data and computer simulation modeling, we evaluated the costs and benefits associated with two methods commonly used to sample benthic organisms in temperate kelp forests. One of these methods, the Targeted Sampling method, relies on different sample units, each "targeted" for a specific species or group of species while the other method relies on coefficients that represent ranges of bottom cover obtained from visual esti-mates within standardized sample units. Both the field data and the computer simulations suggest that both methods yield remarkably similar estimates of organism abundance and among-site variability, although the Coefficient method slightly underestimates variability among sample units when abundances are low. In contrast, the two methods differ considerably in the effort needed to sample these communities; the Targeted Sampling requires more time and twice the personnel to complete. We conclude that the Coefficent Sampling method may be better for environmental monitoring programs where changes in mean abundance are of central concern and resources are limiting, but that the Targeted sampling methods may be better for ecological studies where quantitative relationships among species and small-scale variability in abundance are of central concern.

Potassium in the atmosphere of Mercury

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Potter, A. E.; Morgan, T. H.

1986-01-01

Spectral data are reported from a search for potassium in the Mercury atmosphere. The data were collected with instrumentation at Kitt Peak (7699 A) and at McDonald Observatory (7698.98 and 7664.86 A). The equivalent mean widths of the potassium emission lines observed are tabulated, along with the estimated abundances, which are compared with sodium abundances as determined by resonance lines. The average column abundance of potassium is projected to be 1 billion atoms/sq cm, about 1 percent the column abundance of sodium.

How has our knowledge of dinosaur diversity through geologic time changed through research history?

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Assessments of dinosaur macroevolution at any given time can be biased by the historical publication record. Recent studies have analysed patterns in dinosaur diversity that are based on secular variations in the numbers of published taxa. Many of these have employed a range of approaches that account for changes in the shape of the taxonomic abundance curve, which are largely dependent on databases compiled from the primary published literature. However, how these ‘corrected’ diversity patterns are influenced by the history of publication remains largely unknown. Here, we investigate the influence of publication history between 1991 and 2015 on our understanding of dinosaur evolution using raw diversity estimates and shareholder quorum subsampling for the three major subgroups: Ornithischia, Sauropodomorpha, and Theropoda. We find that, while sampling generally improves through time, there remain periods and regions in dinosaur evolutionary history where diversity estimates are highly volatile (e.g. the latest Jurassic of Europe, the mid-Cretaceous of North America, and the Late Cretaceous of South America). Our results show that historical changes in database compilation can often substantially influence our interpretations of dinosaur diversity. ‘Global’ estimates of diversity based on the fossil record are often also based on incomplete, and distinct regional signals, each subject to their own sampling history. Changes in the record of taxon abundance distribution, either through discovery of new taxa or addition of existing taxa to improve sampling evenness, are important in improving the reliability of our interpretations of dinosaur diversity. Furthermore, the number of occurrences and newly identified dinosaurs is still rapidly increasing through time, suggesting that it is entirely possible for much of what we know about dinosaurs at the present to change within the next 20 years. PMID:29479504

How has our knowledge of dinosaur diversity through geologic time changed through research history?

PubMed

Tennant, Jonathan P; Chiarenza, Alfio Alessandro; Baron, Matthew

2018-01-01

Assessments of dinosaur macroevolution at any given time can be biased by the historical publication record. Recent studies have analysed patterns in dinosaur diversity that are based on secular variations in the numbers of published taxa. Many of these have employed a range of approaches that account for changes in the shape of the taxonomic abundance curve, which are largely dependent on databases compiled from the primary published literature. However, how these 'corrected' diversity patterns are influenced by the history of publication remains largely unknown. Here, we investigate the influence of publication history between 1991 and 2015 on our understanding of dinosaur evolution using raw diversity estimates and shareholder quorum subsampling for the three major subgroups: Ornithischia, Sauropodomorpha, and Theropoda. We find that, while sampling generally improves through time, there remain periods and regions in dinosaur evolutionary history where diversity estimates are highly volatile (e.g. the latest Jurassic of Europe, the mid-Cretaceous of North America, and the Late Cretaceous of South America). Our results show that historical changes in database compilation can often substantially influence our interpretations of dinosaur diversity. 'Global' estimates of diversity based on the fossil record are often also based on incomplete, and distinct regional signals, each subject to their own sampling history. Changes in the record of taxon abundance distribution, either through discovery of new taxa or addition of existing taxa to improve sampling evenness, are important in improving the reliability of our interpretations of dinosaur diversity. Furthermore, the number of occurrences and newly identified dinosaurs is still rapidly increasing through time, suggesting that it is entirely possible for much of what we know about dinosaurs at the present to change within the next 20 years.

A reference estimator based on composite sensor pattern noise for source device identification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Ruizhe; Li, Chang-Tsun; Guan, Yu

2014-02-01

It has been proved that Sensor Pattern Noise (SPN) can serve as an imaging device fingerprint for source camera identification. Reference SPN estimation is a very important procedure within the framework of this application. Most previous works built reference SPN by averaging the SPNs extracted from 50 images of blue sky. However, this method can be problematic. Firstly, in practice we may face the problem of source camera identification in the absence of the imaging cameras and reference SPNs, which means only natural images with scene details are available for reference SPN estimation rather than blue sky images. It is challenging because the reference SPN can be severely contaminated by image content. Secondly, the number of available reference images sometimes is too few for existing methods to estimate a reliable reference SPN. In fact, existing methods lack consideration of the number of available reference images as they were designed for the datasets with abundant images to estimate the reference SPN. In order to deal with the aforementioned problem, in this work, a novel reference estimator is proposed. Experimental results show that our proposed method achieves better performance than the methods based on the averaged reference SPN, especially when few reference images used.

An approach to bioassessment of water quality using diversity measures based on species accumulative curves.

PubMed

Xu, Guangjian; Zhang, Wei; Xu, Henglong

2015-02-15

Traditional community-based bioassessment is time-consuming because they rely on full species-abundance data of a community. To improve bioassessment efficiency, the feasibility of the diversity measures based on species accumulative curves for bioassessment of water quality status was studied based on a dataset of microperiphyton fauna. The results showed that: (1) the species accumulative curves well fitted the Michaelis-Menten equation; (2) the β- and γ-diversity, as well as the number of samples to 50% of the maximum species number (Michaelis-Menten constant K), can be statistically estimated based on the formulation; (3) the rarefied α-diversity represented a significant negative correlation with the changes in the nutrient NH4-N; and (4) the estimated β-diversity and the K constant were significantly positively related to the concentration of NH4-N. The results suggest that the diversity measures based on species accumulative curves might be used as a potential bioindicator of water quality in marine ecosystems. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Demography and population status of polar bears in western Hudson Bay

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lunn, Nicholas J.; Regher, Eric V; Servanty, Sabrina; Converse, Sarah J.; Richardson, Evan S.; Stirling, Ian

2013-01-01

The 2011 abundance estimate from this analysis was 806 bears with a 95% Bayesian credible interval of 653-984. This is lower than, but broadly consistent with, the abundance estimate of 1,030 (95% confidence interval = 745-1406) from a 2011 aerial survey (Stapleton et al. 2014). The capture-recapture and aerial survey approaches have different spatial and temporal coverage of the WH subpopulation and, consequently, the effective study population considered by each approach is different.

Assessing juvenile native fish demographic responses to a steady flow experiment in a large regulated river

USGS Publications Warehouse

Finch, Colton G.; Pine, William E.; Yackulic, Charles B.; Dodrill, Michael J.; Yard, Michael D.; Gerig, Brandon S.; Coggins,, Lewis G.; Korman, Josh

2016-01-01

The Colorado River below Glen Canyon Dam, Arizona, is part of an adaptive management programme which optimizes dam operations to improve various resources in the downstream ecosystem within Grand Canyon. Understanding how populations of federally endangered humpback chub Gila cypha respond to these dam operations is a high priority. Here, we test hypotheses concerning temporal variation in juvenile humpback chub apparent survival rates and abundance by comparing estimates between hydropeaking and steady discharge regimes over a 3-year period (July 2009–July 2012). The most supported model ignored flow type (steady vs hydropeaking) and estimated a declining trend in daily apparent survival rate across years (99.90%, 99.79% and 99.67% for 2009, 2010 and 2011, respectively). Corresponding abundance of juvenile humpback chub increased temporally; open population model estimates ranged from 615 to 2802 individuals/km, and closed model estimates ranged from 94 to 1515 individuals/km. These changes in apparent survival and abundance may reflect broader trends, or simply represent inter-annual variation. Important findings include (i) juvenile humpback chub are currently surviving and recruiting in the mainstem Colorado River with increasing abundance; (ii) apparent survival does not benefit from steady fall discharges from Glen Canyon Dam; and (iii) direct assessment of demographic parameters for juvenile endangered fish are possible and can rapidly inform management actions in regulated rivers.

Comparison of visual survey and seining methods for estimating abundance of an endangered, benthic stream fish

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jordan, F.; Jelks, H.L.; Bortone, S.A.; Dorazio, R.M.

2008-01-01

We compared visual survey and seining methods for estimating abundance of endangered Okaloosa darters, Etheostoma okaloosae, in 12 replicate stream reaches during August 2001. For each 20-m stream reach, two divers systematically located and marked the position of darters and then a second crew of three to five people came through with a small-mesh seine and exhaustively sampled the same area. Visual surveys required little extra time to complete. Visual counts (24.2 ?? 12.0; mean ?? one SD) considerably exceeded seine captures (7.4 ?? 4.8), and counts from the two methods were uncorrelated. Visual surveys, but not seines, detected the presence of Okaloosa darters at one site with low population densities. In 2003, we performed a depletion removal study in 10 replicate stream reaches to assess the accuracy of the visual survey method. Visual surveys detected 59% of Okaloosa darters present, and visual counts and removal estimates were positively correlated. Taken together, our comparisons indicate that visual surveys more accurately and precisely estimate abundance of Okaloosa darters than seining and more reliably detect presence at low population densities. We recommend evaluation of visual survey methods when designing programs to monitor abundance of benthic fishes in clear streams, especially for threatened and endangered species that may be sensitive to handling and habitat disturbance. ?? 2007 Springer Science+Business Media, Inc.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Floss, Christine; Stadermann, Frank J.; Ong, W. J.

We carried out hypervelocity impact experiments in order to test the possibility that presolar grains are preferentially destroyed during impact of the comet 81P/Wild 2 samples into the Stardust Al foil collectors. Powdered samples of the ungrouped carbonaceous chondrite Acfer 094 were shot at 6 km s{sup -1} into Stardust flight spare Al foil. Craters from the Acfer 094 test shots, as well as ones from the actual Stardust cometary foils, were analyzed by NanoSIMS ion imaging to search for presolar grains. We found two O-rich presolar grains and two presolar SiC grains in the Acfer 94 test shots, withmore » measured abundances in the foils of 4 and 5 ppm, respectively, significantly lower than the amount of presolar grains actually present in this meteorite. Based on known abundances of these phases in Acfer 094, we estimate a loss of over 90% of the O-rich presolar grains; the fraction of SiC lost is lower, reflecting its higher resistance to destruction. In the Stardust cometary foils, we identified four O-rich presolar grains in 5000 {mu}m{sup 2} of crater residue. Including a presolar silicate grain found by Leitner et al., the overall measured abundance of O-rich presolar grains in Wild 2 is {approx}35 ppm. No presolar SiC has been found in the foil searches, although one was identified in the aerogel samples. Based on the known abundances of presolar silicates and oxides in Acfer 094, we can calculate the pre-impact abundances of these grains in the Stardust samples. Our calculations indicate initial abundances of 600-830 ppm for O-rich presolar grains. Assuming a typical diameter of {approx}300 nm for SiC suggests a presolar SiC abundance of {approx}45 ppm. Analyses of the Stardust samples indicated early on that recognizable presolar components were not particularly abundant, an observation that was contrary to expectations that the cometary material would, like interplanetary dust particles, be dominated by primitive materials from the early solar system (including abundant presolar grains), which had remained essentially unaltered over solar system history in the cold environment of the Kuiper Belt. Our work shows that comet Wild 2, in fact, does contain more presolar grains than measurements on the Stardust samples suggest, with abundances similar to those observed in primitive IDPs.« less

RNA-Seq Alignment to Individualized Genomes Improves Transcript Abundance Estimates in Multiparent Populations

PubMed Central

Munger, Steven C.; Raghupathy, Narayanan; Choi, Kwangbom; Simons, Allen K.; Gatti, Daniel M.; Hinerfeld, Douglas A.; Svenson, Karen L.; Keller, Mark P.; Attie, Alan D.; Hibbs, Matthew A.; Graber, Joel H.; Chesler, Elissa J.; Churchill, Gary A.

2014-01-01

Massively parallel RNA sequencing (RNA-seq) has yielded a wealth of new insights into transcriptional regulation. A first step in the analysis of RNA-seq data is the alignment of short sequence reads to a common reference genome or transcriptome. Genetic variants that distinguish individual genomes from the reference sequence can cause reads to be misaligned, resulting in biased estimates of transcript abundance. Fine-tuning of read alignment algorithms does not correct this problem. We have developed Seqnature software to construct individualized diploid genomes and transcriptomes for multiparent populations and have implemented a complete analysis pipeline that incorporates other existing software tools. We demonstrate in simulated and real data sets that alignment to individualized transcriptomes increases read mapping accuracy, improves estimation of transcript abundance, and enables the direct estimation of allele-specific expression. Moreover, when applied to expression QTL mapping we find that our individualized alignment strategy corrects false-positive linkage signals and unmasks hidden associations. We recommend the use of individualized diploid genomes over reference sequence alignment for all applications of high-throughput sequencing technology in genetically diverse populations. PMID:25236449

Seasonal distribution and abundance of cetaceans within French waters- Part II: The Bay of Biscay and the English Channel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laran, Sophie; Authier, Matthieu; Blanck, Aurélie; Doremus, Ghislain; Falchetto, Hélène; Monestiez, Pascal; Pettex, Emeline; Stephan, Eric; Van Canneyt, Olivier; Ridoux, Vincent

2017-07-01

From the Habitat Directive to the recent Marine Strategy Framework Directive, the conservation status of cetaceans in European water has been of concern for over two decades. In this study, a seasonal comparison of the abundance and distribution of cetaceans was carried out in two contrasted regions of the Eastern North Atlantic, the Bay of Biscay and the English Channel. Estimates were obtained in the two sub-regions (375,000 km²) from large aerial surveys conducted in the winter (November 2011 to February 2012) and in the summer (May to August 2012). The most abundant species encountered in the Channel, the harbour porpoise, displayed strong seasonal variations in its distribution but a stable abundance (18,000 individuals, CV=30%). In the Bay of Biscay, abundance and distribution patterns of common / striped dolphins varied from 285,000 individuals (95% CI: 174,000-481,000) in the winter, preferentially distributed close to the shelf break, to 494,000 individuals (95% CI: 342,000-719,000) distributed beyond the shelf break in summer. Baleen whales also exhibited an increase of their density in summer. Seasonal abundances of bottlenose dolphins were quite stable, with a large number of 'pelagic' encounters offshore in winter. No significant seasonal difference was estimated for pilot whales and sperm whale. These surveys provided baseline estimates to inform policies to be developed, or for existing conservation instruments such as the Habitats Directive. In addition, our results supported the hypothesis of a shift in the summer distributions of some species such as harbour porpoise and minke whale in European waters.

Using genetic pedigree reconstruction to estimate effective spawner abundance from redd surveys: an example involving Pacific lamprey (Entosphenus tridentatus)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Whitlock, S.L.; Schultz, L.D.; Schreck, Carl B.; Hess, J.E.

2017-01-01

Redd surveys are a commonly used technique for indexing the abundance of sexually mature fish in streams; however, substantial effort is often required to link redd counts to actual spawner abundance. In this study, we describe how genetic pedigree reconstruction can be used to estimate effective spawner abundance in a stream reach, using Pacific lamprey (Entosphenus tridentatus) as an example. Lamprey embryos were sampled from redds within a 2.5 km reach of the Luckiamute River, Oregon, USA. Embryos were found in only 20 of the 48 redds sampled (suggesting 58% false redds); however, multiple sets of parents were detected in 44% of the true redds. Estimates from pedigree reconstruction suggested that there were 0.48 (95% CI: 0.29–0.88) effective spawners per redd and revealed that individual lamprey contributed gametes to a minimum of between one and six redds, and in one case, spawned in patches that were separated by over 800 m. Our findings demonstrate the utility of pedigree reconstruction techniques for both inferring spawning-ground behaviors and providing useful information for refining lamprey redd survey methodologies.

The significance of the north water polynya to arctic top predators.

PubMed

Heide-Jørgensen, Mads Peter; Burt, Louise M; Hansen, Rikke Guldborg; Nielsen, Nynne Hjort; Rasmussen, Marianne; Fossette, Sabrina; Stern, Harry

2013-09-01

The North Water polynya (~76°N to 79°N and 70°W to 80°W) is known to be an important habitat for several species of marine mammals and sea birds. For millennia, it has provided the basis for subsistence hunting and human presence in the northernmost part of Baffin Bay. The abundance of air-breathing top predators also represents a potential source of nutrient cycling that maintains primary production. In this study, aerial surveys conducted in 2009 and 2010 were used for the first time to map the distribution and estimate the abundance of top predators during spring in the North Water. Belugas (Delphinapterus leucas) were not detected north of 77°20'N but were found along the coast of West Greenland and offshore in the middle of the North Water with an abundance estimated at 2245 (95 % CI 1811-2783). Narwhals (Monodon monoceros) were widely distributed on the eastern side of the North Water with an estimate of abundance of 7726 (3761-15 870). Walruses (Odobenus rosmarus) were found across the North Water over both shallow and deep (>500 m) water with an estimated abundance of 1499 (1077-2087). Bearded (Erignathus barbatus) and ringed seals (Phoca hispida) used the large floes of ice in the southeastern part of the North Water for hauling out. Most polar bears (Ursus maritimus) were detected in the southern part of the polynya. The abundances of bearded and ringed seals were 6016 (3322-10 893) and 9529 (5460-16 632), respectively, and that of polar bears was 60 (12-292). Three sea bird species were distributed along the Greenland coast (eiders, Somateria spp.), in leads and cracks close to the Greenland coast (little auks, Alle alle) or widely in open water (thick-billed guillemots, Uria lomvia).

Using spatiotemporal models and distance sampling to map the space use and abundance of newly metamorphosed Western Toads (Anaxyrus boreas)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chelgren, Nathan D.; Samora, Barbara; Adams, Michael J.; McCreary, Brome

2011-01-01

High variability in abundance, cryptic coloration, and small body size of newly metamorphosed anurans have limited demographic studies of this life-history stage. We used line-transect distance sampling and Bayesian methods to estimate the abundance and spatial distribution of newly metamorphosed Western Toads (Anaxyrus boreas) in terrestrial habitat surrounding a montane lake in central Washington, USA. We completed 154 line-transect surveys from the commencement of metamorphosis (15 September 2009) to the date of first snow accumulation in fall (1 October 2009), and located 543 newly metamorphosed toads. After accounting for variable detection probability associated with the extent of barren habitats, estimates of total surface abundance ranged from a posterior median of 3,880 (95% credible intervals from 2,235 to 12,600) in the first week of sampling to 12,150 (5,543 to 51,670) during the second week of sampling. Numbers of newly metamorphosed toads dropped quickly with increasing distance from the lakeshore in a pattern that differed over the three weeks of the study and contradicted our original hypotheses. Though we hypothesized that the spatial distribution of toads would initially be concentrated near the lake shore and then spread outward from the lake over time, we observed the opposite. Ninety-five percent of individuals occurred within 20, 16, and 15 m of shore during weeks one, two, and three respectively, probably reflecting continued emergence of newly metamorphosed toads from the lake and mortality or burrow use of dispersed individuals. Numbers of toads were highest near the inlet stream of the lake. Distance sampling may provide a useful method for estimating the surface abundance of newly metamorphosed toads and relating their space use to landscape variables despite uncertain and variable probability of detection. We discuss means of improving the precision of estimates of total abundance.

LINKING NUTRIENTS TO ALTERATIONS IN AQUATIC LIFE IN CALIFORNIA WADEABLE STREAMS

EPA Science Inventory

This report estimates the natural background and ambient concentrations of primary producer abundance indicators in California wadeable streams, identifies thresholds of adverse effects of nutrient-stimulated primary producer abundance on benthic macroinvertebrate and algal commu...

A comparison of four electroshocking procedures for assessing the abundance of smallmouth bass in Wisconsin streams.

Treesearch

John Lyons; Paul Kanehl

1993-01-01

Critically examines four electrofishing methods commonly used to estimate the abundance of smallmouth bass in wadeable streams, and provides guidelines for sampling smallmouth bass in streams of Wisconsin and nearby areas.

The Influence of Atomic Diffusion on Stellar Ages and Chemical Tagging

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dotter, Aaron; Conroy, Charlie; Cargile, Phillip

2017-05-10

In the era of large stellar spectroscopic surveys, there is an emphasis on deriving not only stellar abundances but also the ages for millions of stars. In the context of Galactic archeology, stellar ages provide a direct probe of the formation history of the Galaxy. We use the stellar evolution code MESA to compute models with atomic diffusion—with and without radiative acceleration—and extra mixing in the surface layers. The extra mixing consists of both density-dependent turbulent mixing and envelope overshoot mixing. Based on these models we argue that it is important to distinguish between initial, bulk abundances (parameters) and current,more » surface abundances (variables) in the analysis of individual stellar ages. In stars that maintain radiative regions on evolutionary timescales, atomic diffusion modifies the surface abundances. We show that when initial, bulk metallicity is equated with current, surface metallicity in isochrone age analysis, the resulting stellar ages can be systematically overestimated by up to 20%. The change of surface abundances with evolutionary phase also complicates chemical tagging, which is the concept that dispersed star clusters can be identified through unique, high-dimensional chemical signatures. Stars from the same cluster, but in different evolutionary phases, will show different surface abundances. We speculate that calibration of stellar models may allow us to estimate not only stellar ages but also initial abundances for individual stars. In the meantime, analyzing the chemical properties of stars in similar evolutionary phases is essential to minimize the effects of atomic diffusion in the context of chemical tagging.« less

The distribution of particulate material on Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Christensen, Philip R.

1991-01-01

The surface materials on Mars were extensively studied using a variety of spacecraft and Earth-based remote sensing observations. These measurements include: (1) diurnal thermal measurements, used to determine average particle size, rock abundance, and the presence of crusts; (2) radar observations, used to estimate the surface slope distributions, wavelength scale roughness, and density; (3) radio emission observations, used to estimate subsurface density; (4) broadband albedo measurements, used to study the time variation of surface brightness and dust deposition and removal; and (5) color observations, used to infer composition, mixing, and the presence of crusts. Remote sensing observations generally require some degree of modeling to interpret, making them more difficult to interpret than direct observations from the surface. They do, however, provide a means for examining the surface properties over the entire planet and a means of sampling varying depths within the regolith. Albedo and color observations only indicate the properties of the upper-most few microns, but are very sensitive to thin, sometimes emphemeral dust coatings. Thermal observations sample the upper skin depth, generally 2 to 10 cm. Rock abundance measurements give an indirect indication of surface mantling, where the absence of rocks suggests mantles of several meters. Finally, radar and radio emission data can penetrate several meters into the surface, providing an estimate of subsurface density and roughness.

Hierarchical modeling of cluster size in wildlife surveys

USGS Publications Warehouse

Royle, J. Andrew

2008-01-01

Clusters or groups of individuals are the fundamental unit of observation in many wildlife sampling problems, including aerial surveys of waterfowl, marine mammals, and ungulates. Explicit accounting of cluster size in models for estimating abundance is necessary because detection of individuals within clusters is not independent and detectability of clusters is likely to increase with cluster size. This induces a cluster size bias in which the average cluster size in the sample is larger than in the population at large. Thus, failure to account for the relationship between delectability and cluster size will tend to yield a positive bias in estimates of abundance or density. I describe a hierarchical modeling framework for accounting for cluster-size bias in animal sampling. The hierarchical model consists of models for the observation process conditional on the cluster size distribution and the cluster size distribution conditional on the total number of clusters. Optionally, a spatial model can be specified that describes variation in the total number of clusters per sample unit. Parameter estimation, model selection, and criticism may be carried out using conventional likelihood-based methods. An extension of the model is described for the situation where measurable covariates at the level of the sample unit are available. Several candidate models within the proposed class are evaluated for aerial survey data on mallard ducks (Anas platyrhynchos).

A spatial mark–resight model augmented with telemetry data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sollmann, Rachel; Gardner, Beth; Parsons, Arielle W.; Stocking, Jessica J.; McClintock, Brett T.; Simons, Theodore R.; Pollock, Kenneth H.; O’Connell, Allan F.

2013-01-01

Abundance and population density are fundamental pieces of information for population ecology and species conservation, but they are difficult to estimate for rare and elusive species. Mark-resight models are popular for estimating population abundance because they are less invasive and expensive than traditional mark-recapture. However, density estimation using mark-resight is difficult because the area sampled must be explicitly defined, historically using ad-hoc approaches. We develop a spatial mark-resight model for estimating population density that combines spatial resighting data and telemetry data. Incorporating telemetry data allows us to inform model parameters related to movement and individual location. Our model also allows 2. The model presented here will have widespread utility in future applications, especially for species that are not naturally marked.

Modeling species occurrence dynamics with multiple states and imperfect detection

USGS Publications Warehouse

MacKenzie, D.I.; Nichols, J.D.; Seamans, M.E.; Gutierrez, R.J.

2009-01-01

Recent extensions of occupancy modeling have focused not only on the distribution of species over space, but also on additional state variables (e.g., reproducing or not, with or without disease organisms, relative abundance categories) that provide extra information about occupied sites. These biologist-driven extensions are characterized by ambiguity in both species presence and correct state classification, caused by imperfect detection. We first show the relationships between independently published approaches to the modeling of multistate occupancy. We then extend the pattern-based modeling to the case of sampling over multiple seasons or years in order to estimate state transition probabilities associated with system dynamics. The methodology and its potential for addressing relevant ecological questions are demonstrated using both maximum likelihood (occupancy and successful reproduction dynamics of California Spotted Owl) and Markov chain Monte Carlo estimation approaches (changes in relative abundance of green frogs in Maryland). Just as multistate capture-recapture modeling has revolutionized the study of individual marked animals, we believe that multistate occupancy modeling will dramatically increase our ability to address interesting questions about ecological processes underlying population-level dynamics. ?? 2009 by the Ecological Society of America.

Dynamic models for problems of species occurrence with multiple states

USGS Publications Warehouse

MacKenzie, D.I.; Nichols, J.D.; Seamans, M.E.; Gutierrez, R.J.

2009-01-01

Recent extensions of occupancy modeling have focused not only on the distribution of species over space, but also on additional state variables (e.g., reproducing or not, with or without disease organisms, relative abundance categories) that provide extra information about occupied sites. These biologist-driven extensions are characterized by ambiguity in both species presence and correct state classification, caused by imperfect detection. We first show the relationships between independently published approaches to the modeling of multistate occupancy. We then extend the pattern-based modeling to the case of sampling over multiple seasons or years in order to estimate state transition probabilities associated with system dynamics. The methodology and its potential for addressing relevant ecological questions are demonstrated using both maximum likelihood (occupancy and successful reproduction dynamics of California Spotted Owl) and Markov chain Monte Carlo estimation approaches (changes in relative abundance of green frogs in Maryland). Just as multistate capture?recapture modeling has revolutionized the study of individual marked animals, we believe that multistate occupancy modeling will dramatically increase our ability to address interesting questions about ecological processes underlying population-level dynamics.

Quantifiable long-term monitoring on parks and nature preserves

USGS Publications Warehouse

Beck, Scott; Moorman, Christopher; DePerno, Christopher S.; Simons, Theodore R.

2013-01-01

Herpetofauna have declined globally, and monitoring is a useful approach to document local and long-term changes. However, monitoring efforts often fail to account for detectability or follow standardized protocols. We performed a case study at Hemlock Bluffs Nature Preserve in Cary, NC to model occupancy of focal species and demonstrate a replicable long-term protocol useful to parks and nature preserves. From March 2010 to 2011, we documented occupancy of Ambystoma opacum(Marbled Salamander), Plethodon cinereus (Red-backed Salamander), Carphophis amoenus (Eastern Worm Snake), and Diadophis punctatus (Ringneck Snake) at coverboard sites and estimated breeding female Ambystoma maculatum (Spotted Salamander) abundance via dependent double-observer egg-mass counts in ephemeral pools. Temperature influenced detection of both Marbled and Red-backed Salamanders. Based on egg-mass data, we estimated Spotted Salamander abundance to be between 21 and 44 breeding females. We detected 43 of 53 previously documented herpetofauna species. Our approach demonstrates a monitoring protocol that accounts for factors that influence species detection and is replicable by parks or nature preserves with limited resources.

Estimating cavity tree and snag abundance using negative binomial regression models and nearest neighbor imputation methods

Treesearch

Bianca N.I. Eskelson; Hailemariam Temesgen; Tara M. Barrett

2009-01-01

Cavity tree and snag abundance data are highly variable and contain many zero observations. We predict cavity tree and snag abundance from variables that are readily available from forest cover maps or remotely sensed data using negative binomial (NB), zero-inflated NB, and zero-altered NB (ZANB) regression models as well as nearest neighbor (NN) imputation methods....

[Effect of stock abundance and environmental factors on the recruitment success of small yellow croaker in the East China Sea].

PubMed

Liu, Zun-lei; Yuan, Xing-wei; Yang, Lin-lin; Yan, Li-ping; Zhang, Hui; Cheng, Jia-hua

2015-02-01

Multiple hypotheses are available to explain recruitment rate. Model selection methods can be used to identify the best model that supports a particular hypothesis. However, using a single model for estimating recruitment success is often inadequate for overexploited population because of high model uncertainty. In this study, stock-recruitment data of small yellow croaker in the East China Sea collected from fishery dependent and independent surveys between 1992 and 2012 were used to examine density-dependent effects on recruitment success. Model selection methods based on frequentist (AIC, maximum adjusted R2 and P-values) and Bayesian (Bayesian model averaging, BMA) methods were applied to identify the relationship between recruitment and environment conditions. Interannual variability of the East China Sea environment was indicated by sea surface temperature ( SST) , meridional wind stress (MWS), zonal wind stress (ZWS), sea surface pressure (SPP) and runoff of Changjiang River ( RCR). Mean absolute error, mean squared predictive error and continuous ranked probability score were calculated to evaluate the predictive performance of recruitment success. The results showed that models structures were not consistent based on three kinds of model selection methods, predictive variables of models were spawning abundance and MWS by AIC, spawning abundance by P-values, spawning abundance, MWS and RCR by maximum adjusted R2. The recruitment success decreased linearly with stock abundance (P < 0.01), suggesting overcompensation effect in the recruitment success might be due to cannibalism or food competition. Meridional wind intensity showed marginally significant and positive effects on the recruitment success (P = 0.06), while runoff of Changjiang River showed a marginally negative effect (P = 0.07). Based on mean absolute error and continuous ranked probability score, predictive error associated with models obtained from BMA was the smallest amongst different approaches, while that from models selected based on the P-value of the independent variables was the highest. However, mean squared predictive error from models selected based on the maximum adjusted R2 was highest. We found that BMA method could improve the prediction of recruitment success, derive more accurate prediction interval and quantitatively evaluate model uncertainty.

Water equivalent hydrogen estimates from the first 200 sols of Curiosity's traverse (Bradbury Landing to Yellowknife Bay): Results from the Dynamic Albedo of Neutrons (DAN) passive mode experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tate, C. G.; Moersch, J.; Jun, I.; Ming, D. W.; Mitrofanov, I.; Litvak, M.; Behar, A.; Boynton, W. V.; Deflores, L.; Drake, D.; Ehresmann, B.; Fedosov, F.; Golovin, D.; Hardgrove, C.; Harshman, K.; Hassler, D. M.; Kozyrev, A. S.; Kuzmin, R.; Lisov, D.; Malakhov, A.; Milliken, R.; Mischna, M.; Mokrousov, M.; Nikiforov, S.; Sanin, A. B.; Starr, R.; Varenikov, A.; Vostrukhin, A.; Zeitlin, C.

2015-12-01

The Dynamic Albedo of Neutrons (DAN) experiment on the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) rover Curiosity is designed to detect neutrons to determine hydrogen abundance within the subsurface of Mars (Mitrofanov, I.G. et al. [2012]. Space Sci. Rev. 170, 559-582. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11214-012-9924-y; Litvak, M.L. et al. [2008]. Astrobiology 8, 605-613. http://dx.doi.org/10.1089/ast.2007.0157). While DAN has a pulsed neutron generator for active measurements, in passive mode it only measures the leakage spectrum of neutrons produced by the Multi-Mission Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generator (MMRTG) and Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR). DAN passive measurements provide better spatial coverage than the active measurements because they can be acquired while the rover is moving. Here we compare DAN passive-mode data to models of the instrument's response to compositional differences in a homogeneous regolith in order to estimate the water equivalent hydrogen (WEH) content along the first 200 sols of Curiosity's traverse in Gale Crater, Mars. WEH content is shown to vary greatly along the traverse. These estimates range from 0.5 ± 0.1 wt.% to 3.9 ± 0.2 wt.% for fixed locations (usually overnight stops) investigated by the rover and 0.6 ± 0.2 wt.% to 7.6 ± 1.3 wt.% for areas that the rover has traversed while continuously acquiring DAN passive data between fixed locations. Estimates of WEH abundances at fixed locations based on passive mode data are in broad agreement with those estimated at the same locations using active mode data. Localized (meter-scale) anomalies in estimated WEH values from traverse measurements have no particular surface expression observable in co-located images. However at a much larger scale, the hummocky plains and bedded fractured units are shown to be distinct compositional units based on the hydrogen content derived from DAN passive measurements. DAN passive WEH estimates are also shown to be consistent with geologic models inferred from other MSL instruments, which indicate that fluvial/lacustrine activity occurred at certain locations (e.g., Yellowknife Bay).

Phages Infecting Vibrio vulnificus Are Abundant and Diverse in Oysters (Crassostrea virginica) Collected from the Gulf of Mexico

PubMed Central

DePaola, Angelo; Motes, Miles L.; Chan, Amy M.; Suttle, Curtis A.

1998-01-01

Phages infecting Vibrio vulnificus were abundant (>104 phages g of oyster tissue−1) throughout the year in oysters (Crassostrea virginica) collected from estuaries adjacent to the Gulf of Mexico (Apalachicola Bay, Fla.; Mobile Bay, Ala.; and Black Bay, La.). Estimates of abundance ranged from 101 to 105 phages g of oyster tissue−1 and were dependent on the bacterial strain used to assay the sample. V. vulnificus was near or below detection limits (<0.3 cell g−1) from January through March and was most abundant (103 to 104 cells g−1) during the summer and fall, when phage abundances also tended to be greatest. The phages isolated were specific to strains of V. vulnificus, except for one isolate that caused lysis in a few strains of V. parahaemolyticus. Based on morphological evidence obtained by transmission electron microscopy, the isolates belonged to the Podoviridae, Styloviridae, and Myoviridae, three families of double-stranded DNA phages. One newly described morphotype belonging to the Podoviridae appears to be ubiquitous in Gulf Coast oysters. Isolates of this morphotype have an elongated capsid (mean, 258 nm; standard deviation, 4 nm; n = 35), with some isolates having a relatively broad host range among strains of V. vulnificus. Results from this study indicate that a morphologically diverse group of phages which infect V. vulnificus is abundant and widely distributed in oysters from estuaries bordering the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. PMID:9435088

A hierarchical spatial model of avian abundance with application to Cerulean Warblers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Sauer, John R.; Knutson, Melinda G.

2004-01-01

Surveys collecting count data are the primary means by which abundance is indexed for birds. These counts are confounded, however, by nuisance effects including observer effects and spatial correlation between counts. Current methods poorly accommodate both observer and spatial effects because modeling these spatially autocorrelated counts within a hierarchical framework is not practical using standard statistical approaches. We propose a Bayesian approach to this problem and provide as an example of its implementation a spatial model of predicted abundance for the Cerulean Warbler (Dendroica cerulea) in the Prairie-Hardwood Transition of the upper midwestern United States. We used an overdispersed Poisson regression with fixed and random effects, fitted by Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. We used 21 years of North American Breeding Bird Survey counts as the response in a loglinear function of explanatory variables describing habitat, spatial relatedness, year effects, and observer effects. The model included a conditional autoregressive term representing potential correlation between adjacent route counts. Categories of explanatory habitat variables in the model included land cover composition and configuration, climate, terrain heterogeneity, and human influence. The inherent hierarchy in the model was from counts occurring, in part, as a function of observers within survey routes within years. We found that the percentage of forested wetlands, an index of wetness potential, and an interaction between mean annual precipitation and deciduous forest patch size best described Cerulean Warbler abundance. Based on a map of relative abundance derived from the posterior parameter estimates, we estimated that only 15% of the species' population occurred on federal land, necessitating active engagement of public landowners and state agencies in the conservation of the breeding habitat for this species. Models of this type can be applied to any data in which the response is counts, such as animal counts, activity (e.g.,nest) counts, or species richness. The most noteworthy practical application of this spatial modeling approach is the ability to map relative species abundance. The functional relationships that we elucidated for the Cerulean Warbler provide a basis for the development of management programs and may serve to focus management and monitoring on areas and habitat variables important to Cerulean Warblers.

Effects of structural complexity enhancement on eastern red-backed salamander (Plethodon cinereus) populations in northern hardwood forests

USGS Publications Warehouse

McKenny, H.C.; Keeton, W.S.; Donovan, T.M.

2006-01-01

Managing for stand structural complexity in northern hardwood forests has been proposed as a method for promoting microhabitat characteristics important to eastern red-backed salamanders (Plethodon cinereus). We evaluated the effects of alternate, structure-based silvicultural systems on red-backed salamander populations at two research sites in northwestern Vermont. Treatments included two uneven-aged approaches (single-tree selection and group-selection) and one unconventional approach, termed "structural complexity enhancement" (SCE), that promotes development of late-successional structure, including elevated levels of coarse woody debris (CWD). Treatments were applied to 2 ha units and were replicated two to four times depending on treatment. We surveyed red-backed salamanders with a natural cover search method of transects nested within vegetation plots 1 year after logging. Abundance estimates corrected for detection probability were calculated from survey data with a binomial mixture model. Abundance estimates differed between study areas and were influenced by forest structural characteristics. Model selection was conducted using Akaike Information Criteria, corrected for over-dispersed data and small sample size (QAICc). We found no difference in abundance as a response to treatment as a whole, suggesting that all of the uneven-aged silvicultural systems evaluated can maintain salamander populations after harvest. However, abundance was tied to specific structural habitat attributes associated with study plots within treatments. The most parsimonious model of habitat covariates included site, relative density of overstory trees, and density of more-decayed and less-decayed downed CWD. Abundance responded positively to the density of downed, well-decayed CWD and negatively to the density of poorly decayed CWD and to overstory relative density. CWD volume was not a strong predictor of salamander abundance. We conclude that structural complexity enhancement and the two uneven-aged approaches maintained important microhabitat characteristics for red-backed salamander populations in the short term. Over the long-term, given decay processes as a determinant of biological availability, forestry practices such as SCE that enhance CWD availability and recruitment may result in associated population responses. ?? 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Adverse moisture events predict seasonal abundance of Lyme disease vector ticks (Ixodes scapularis)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Berger, Kathryn A.; Ginsberg, Howard S.; Dugas, Katherine D.; Hamel, Lutz H.; Mather, Thomas N.

2014-01-01

Background: Lyme borreliosis (LB) is the most commonly reported vector-borne disease in north temperate regions worldwide, affecting an estimated 300,000 people annually in the United States alone. The incidence of LB is correlated with human exposure to its vector, the blacklegged tick (Ixodes scapularis). To date, attempts to model tick encounter risk based on environmental parameters have been equivocal. Previous studies have not considered (1) the differences between relative humidity (RH) in leaf litter and at weather stations, (2) the RH threshold that affects nymphal blacklegged tick survival, and (3) the time required below the threshold to induce mortality. We clarify the association between environmental moisture and tick survival by presenting a significant relationship between the total number of tick adverse moisture events (TAMEs - calculated as microclimatic periods below a RH threshold) and tick abundance each year.Methods: We used a 14-year continuous statewide tick surveillance database and corresponding weather data from Rhode Island (RI), USA, to assess the effects of TAMEs on nymphal populations of I. scapularis. These TAMEs were defined as extended periods of time (>8 h below 82% RH in leaf litter). We fit a sigmoid curve comparing weather station data to those collected by loggers placed in tick habitats to estimate RH experienced by nymphal ticks, and compiled the number of historical TAMEs during the 14-year record.Results: The total number of TAMEs in June of each year was negatively related to total seasonal nymphal tick densities, suggesting that sub-threshold humidity episodes >8 h in duration naturally lowered nymphal blacklegged tick abundance. Furthermore, TAMEs were positively related to the ratio of tick abundance early in the season when compared to late season, suggesting that lower than average tick abundance for a given year resulted from tick mortality and not from other factors.Conclusions: Our results clarify the mechanism by which environmental moisture affects blacklegged tick populations, and offers the possibility to more accurately predict tick abundance and human LB incidence. We describe a method to forecast LB risk in endemic regions and identify the predictive role of microclimatic moisture conditions on tick encounter risk.

Polar Bear Conservation Status in Relation to Projected Sea-ice Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Regehr, E. V.

2015-12-01

The status of the world's 19 subpopulations of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) varies as a function of sea-ice conditions, ecology, management, and other factors. Previous methods to project the response of polar bears to loss of Arctic sea ice—the primary threat to the species—include expert opinion surveys, Bayesian Networks providing qualitative stressor assessments, and subpopulations-specific demographic analyses. Here, we evaluated the global conservation status of polar bears using a data-based sensitivity analysis. First, we estimated generation length for subpopulations with available data (n=11). Second, we developed standardized sea-ice metrics representing habitat availability. Third, we projected global population size under alternative assumptions for relationships between sea ice and subpopulation abundance. Estimated generation length (median = 11.4 years; 95%CI = 9.8 to 13.6) and sea-ice change (median = loss of 1.26 ice-covered days per year; 95%CI = 0.70 to 3.37) varied across subpopulations. Assuming a one-to-one proportional relationship between sea ice and abundance, the median percent change in global population size over three polar bear generations was -30% (95%CI = -35% to -25%). Assuming a linear relationship between sea ice and normalized estimates of subpopulation abundance, median percent change was -4% (95% CI = -62% to +50%) or -43% (95% CI = -76% to -20%), depending on how subpopulations were grouped and how inference was extended from relatively well-studied subpopulations (n=7) to those with little or no data. Our findings suggest the potential for large reductions in polar bear numbers over the next three polar bear generations if sea-ice loss due to climate change continues as forecasted.

Geochemical signatures in fin rays provide a nonlethal method to distinguish the natal rearing streams of endangered juvenile Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha in the Wenatchee River, Washington

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Linley, Timothy J.; Krogstad, Eirik J.; Nims, Megan K.

Rebuilding fish populations that have undergone a major decline is a challenging task that can be made more complicated when estimates of abundance obtained from physical tags are biased or imprecise. Abundance estimates based on natural tags where each fish in the population is marked can help address these problems, but generally requires that the samples be obtained in a nonlethal manner. We evaluated the potential of using geochemical signatures in fin rays as a nonlethal method to determine the natal tributaries of endangered juvenile spring Chinook Salmon in the Wenatchee River, Washington. Archived samples of anal fin clips collectedmore » from yearling smolt in 2009, 2010 and 2011 were analyzed for Ba/Ca, Mn/Ba, Mg/Ca, Sr/Ca, Zn/Ca and 87Sr/86Sr by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. Water samples collected from these same streams in 2012 were also quantified for geochemical composition. Fin ray and water Ba/Ca, Sr/Ca, and 87Sr/86Sr were highly correlated despite the samples having been collected in different years. Fin ray Ba/Ca, Mg/Ca, Sr/Ca, Zn/Ca and 87Sr/86Sr ratios differed significantly among the natal streams, but also among years within streams. A linear discriminant model that included Ba/Ca, Mg/Ca, Sr/Ca, and 87Sr/86Sr correctly classified 95% of the salmon to their natal stream. Our results suggest that fin ray geochemistry may provide an effective, nonlethal method to identify mixtures of Wenatchee River spring Chinook Salmon for recovery efforts when these involve the capture of juvenile fish to estimate population abundance.« less

Establishing endangered species recovery criteria using predictive simulation modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGowan, Conor P.; Catlin, Daniel H.; Shaffer, Terry L.; Gratto-Trevor, Cheri L.; Aron, Carol

2014-01-01

Listing a species under the Endangered Species Act (ESA) and developing a recovery plan requires U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to establish specific and measurable criteria for delisting. Generally, species are listed because they face (or are perceived to face) elevated risk of extinction due to issues such as habitat loss, invasive species, or other factors. Recovery plans identify recovery criteria that reduce extinction risk to an acceptable level. It logically follows that the recovery criteria, the defined conditions for removing a species from ESA protections, need to be closely related to extinction risk. Extinction probability is a population parameter estimated with a model that uses current demographic information to project the population into the future over a number of replicates, calculating the proportion of replicated populations that go extinct. We simulated extinction probabilities of piping plovers in the Great Plains and estimated the relationship between extinction probability and various demographic parameters. We tested the fit of regression models linking initial abundance, productivity, or population growth rate to extinction risk, and then, using the regression parameter estimates, determined the conditions required to reduce extinction probability to some pre-defined acceptable threshold. Binomial regression models with mean population growth rate and the natural log of initial abundance were the best predictors of extinction probability 50 years into the future. For example, based on our regression models, an initial abundance of approximately 2400 females with an expected mean population growth rate of 1.0 will limit extinction risk for piping plovers in the Great Plains to less than 0.048. Our method provides a straightforward way of developing specific and measurable recovery criteria linked directly to the core issue of extinction risk. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

High viral abundance as a consequence of low viral decay in the Baltic Sea redoxcline

PubMed Central

Scharnreitner, Lisa; Jürgens, Klaus; Labrenz, Matthias; Herndl, Gerhard J.; Winter, Christian

2017-01-01

Throughout the Baltic Sea redoxcline, virus production and the frequency of lytically-infected prokaryotic cells were estimated from parallel incubations of undiluted seawater and seawater that contained prokaryotes with substantially reduced numbers of viruses (virus dilution approach), effectively preventing viral reinfection during the incubation period. Undiluted seawater incubations resulted in much higher estimates of virus production (6–35×104 mL-1 h-1) and the frequency of infected cells (5–84%) than the virus dilution approach (virus production: 1–3×104 mL-1 h-1; frequency of infected cells: 1–11%). Viral production and the frequency of infected cells from both approaches, however, cannot be directly compared, as data obtained from undiluted incubations were biased by viral reinfection and other uncontrollable processes during the incubation period. High in situ viral abundance (1–2×107 mL-1) together with low virus production rates based on the virus dilution approach resulted in some of the longest viral turnover times (24–84 d) ever reported for the epipelagial. Throughout a wide range of environmental conditions, viral turnover time and burst size were negatively correlated. Given that viral decay estimated in ultra-filtered water was below the detection limit and the burst size was low (1–17), we conclude that prokaryotic viruses in the Baltic Sea redoxcline are investing most of their resources into stress defense (strong capsids) rather than proliferation (high burst size). In summary, the Baltic Sea redoxcline constitutes an environment where low virus production is found in combination with low viral decay, resulting in high viral abundance. PMID:28594863

Calculation of weighted averages approach for the estimation of ping tolerance values

USGS Publications Warehouse

Silalom, S.; Carter, J.L.; Chantaramongkol, P.

2010-01-01

A biotic index was created and proposed as a tool to assess water quality in the Upper Mae Ping sub-watersheds. The Ping biotic index was calculated by utilizing Ping tolerance values. This paper presents the calculation of Ping tolerance values of the collected macroinvertebrates. Ping tolerance values were estimated by a weighted averages approach based on the abundance of macroinvertebrates and six chemical constituents that include conductivity, dissolved oxygen, biochemical oxygen demand, ammonia nitrogen, nitrate nitrogen and orthophosphate. Ping tolerance values range from 0 to 10. Macroinvertebrates assigned a 0 are very sensitive to organic pollution while macroinvertebrates assigned 10 are highly tolerant to pollution.

A 3D simulation look-up library for real-time airborne gamma-ray spectroscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kulisek, Jonathan A.; Wittman, Richard S.; Miller, Erin A.; Kernan, Warnick J.; McCall, Jonathon D.; McConn, Ron J.; Schweppe, John E.; Seifert, Carolyn E.; Stave, Sean C.; Stewart, Trevor N.

2018-01-01

A three-dimensional look-up library consisting of simulated gamma-ray spectra was developed to leverage, in real-time, the abundance of data provided by a helicopter-mounted gamma-ray detection system consisting of 92 CsI-based radiation sensors and exhibiting a highly angular-dependent response. We have demonstrated how this library can be used to help effectively estimate the terrestrial gamma-ray background, develop simulated flight scenarios, and to localize radiological sources. Source localization accuracy was significantly improved, particularly for weak sources, by estimating the entire gamma-ray spectra while accounting for scattering in the air, and especially off the ground.

Regional variation in the intensity of humpback whale predation on Pacific herring in the Gulf of Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moran, J. R.; Heintz, R. A.; Straley, J. M.; Vollenweider, J. J.

2018-01-01

We modeled the biomass of Pacific herring (Clupea pallasii) consumed by humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) to determine if whales are preventing the recovery of some herring populations in the Gulf of Alaska. We estimated consumption, by whales, of two depressed (Lynn Canal, Prince William Sound) and one robust (Sitka Sound) herring populations during fall/winter of 2007-2008 and 2008-2009. Consumption estimates relied on observations of whale abundance, prey selection, and herring energy content along with published data on whale size and metabolic rate. Herring biomass removed by whales was compared with independent estimates of herring abundance to assess the impact of predation on each population. Whales removed a greater proportion of the total biomass of herring available in Lynn Canal and Prince William Sound than in Sitka Sound. Biomass removals were greatest in Prince William Sound where we observed the largest number of whales foraging on herring. The biomass of herring consumed in Prince William Sound approximated the biomass lost to natural mortality over winter as projected by age-structured stock assessments. Though whales also focused their foraging on herring during the fall in Lynn Canal, whales were less abundant resulting in lower estimated consumption rates. Whales were more abundant in Sitka Sound than in Lynn Canal but foraged predominately on euphausiids. Herring abundance was greater in Sitka Sound, further reducing the overall impact on the herring population. These data indicate that the focused predation in Prince William Sound can exert top-down controlling pressure, but whale populations are not a ubiquitous constraint on forage fish productivity in the Gulf of Alaska at this time.

Spatial abundance models and seasonal distribution for guanaco (Lama guanicoe) in central Tierra del Fuego, Argentina.

PubMed

Flores, Celina E; Deferrari, Guillermo; Collado, Leonardo; Escobar, Julio; Schiavini, Adrián

2018-01-01

Spatially explicit modelling allows to estimate population abundance and predict species' distribution in relation to environmental factors. Abiotic factors are the main determinants of a herbivore´s response to environmental heterogeneity on large spatiotemporal scales. We assessed the influence of elevation, geographic location and distance to the coast on the seasonal abundance and distribution of guanaco (Lama guanicoe) in central Tierra del Fuego, by means of spatially explicit modelling. The estimated abundance was 23,690 individuals for the non-breeding season and 33,928 individuals for the breeding season. The factors influencing distribution and abundance revealed to be the elevation for the non-breeding season, and the distance to the coast and geographic location for the breeding season. The southwest of the study area presented seasonal abundance variation and the southeast and northeast presented high abundance during both seasons. The elevation would be the driving factor of guanaco distribution, as individuals move to lower areas during the non-breeding season and ascend to high areas during the breeding season. Our results confirm that part of the guanaco population performs seasonal migratory movements and that the main valleys present important wintering habitats for guanacos as well as up-hill zones during summer. This type of study would help to avoid problems of scale mismatch and achieve better results in management actions and is an example of how to assess important seasonal habitats from evaluations of abundance and distribution patterns.

Spatial abundance models and seasonal distribution for guanaco (Lama guanicoe) in central Tierra del Fuego, Argentina

PubMed Central

Deferrari, Guillermo; Collado, Leonardo; Escobar, Julio; Schiavini, Adrián

2018-01-01

Spatially explicit modelling allows to estimate population abundance and predict species’ distribution in relation to environmental factors. Abiotic factors are the main determinants of a herbivore´s response to environmental heterogeneity on large spatiotemporal scales. We assessed the influence of elevation, geographic location and distance to the coast on the seasonal abundance and distribution of guanaco (Lama guanicoe) in central Tierra del Fuego, by means of spatially explicit modelling. The estimated abundance was 23,690 individuals for the non-breeding season and 33,928 individuals for the breeding season. The factors influencing distribution and abundance revealed to be the elevation for the non-breeding season, and the distance to the coast and geographic location for the breeding season. The southwest of the study area presented seasonal abundance variation and the southeast and northeast presented high abundance during both seasons. The elevation would be the driving factor of guanaco distribution, as individuals move to lower areas during the non-breeding season and ascend to high areas during the breeding season. Our results confirm that part of the guanaco population performs seasonal migratory movements and that the main valleys present important wintering habitats for guanacos as well as up-hill zones during summer. This type of study would help to avoid problems of scale mismatch and achieve better results in management actions and is an example of how to assess important seasonal habitats from evaluations of abundance and distribution patterns. PMID:29782523

Seasonal distribution and abundance of cetaceans within French waters- Part I: The North-Western Mediterranean, including the Pelagos sanctuary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laran, Sophie; Pettex, Emeline; Authier, Matthieu; Blanck, Aurélie; David, Léa; Dorémus, Ghislain; Falchetto, Hélène; Monestiez, Pascal; Van Canneyt, Olivier; Ridoux, Vincent

2017-07-01

The biodiversity of the Mediterranean Sea is undergoing important changes. Cetaceans, as top predators, are an important component of marine ecosystems. The seasonal distribution and abundance of several cetacean species were studied with a large aerial survey over the North-Western Mediterranean Sea, including the international Pelagos sanctuary, the largest Marine Protected Area (MPA) designed for marine mammals in the Mediterranean. A total of 8 distinct species of cetaceans were identified, and their occurrence within the sanctuary was investigated. Abundance estimates were obtained for three groups of species: the small delphinids (striped dolphins mainly), the bottlenose dolphin and the fin whale. There was a seasonal variation in striped dolphin abundance between winter (57,300 individuals, 95% CI: 34,500-102,000) and summer (130,000, 95% CI: 76,800-222,100). In contrast, bottlenose dolphin winter abundance was thrice that of summer. It was also the only species to exhibit any preference for the Pelagos sanctuary. Fin whale abundance had the reverse pattern with winter abundance (1000 individuals, 95% CI: 500-2500) and summer (2500 individuals, 95% CI: 1500-4300), without any preference for the sanctuary. Risso's dolphins, pilot whales and sperm whales did not exhibit strong seasonal pattern in their abundance. These results provide baseline estimates which can be used to inform conservation policies and instruments such as the Habitats Directive or the recent European Marine Strategy Framework Directive.

Palila abundance estimates and trends

USGS Publications Warehouse

Banko, Paul C.; Brink, Kevin W.; Camp, Richard

2014-01-01

The palila (Loxioides bailleui) population was surveyed annually during 1998−2014 on Mauna Kea Volcano to determine abundance, population trend, and spatial distribution. In the latest surveys, the 2013 population was estimated at 1,492−2,132 birds (point estimate: 1,799) and the 2014 population was estimated at 1,697−2,508 (point estimate: 2,070). Similar numbers of palila were detected during the first and subsequent counts within each year during 2012−2014, and there was no difference in their detection probability due to count sequence. This suggests that greater precision in population estimates can be achieved if future surveys include repeat visits. No palila were detected outside the core survey area in 2013 or 2014, suggesting that most if not all palila inhabit the western slope during the survey period. Since 2003, the size of the area containing all annual palila detections do not indicate a significant change among years, suggesting that the range of the species has remained stable; although this area represents only about 5% of its historical extent. During 1998−2003, palila numbers fluctuated moderately (coefficient of variation [CV] = 0.21). After peaking in 2003, population estimates declined steadily through 2011; since 2010, estimates have fluctuated moderately above the 2011 minimum (CV = 0.18). The average rate of decline during 1998−2014 was 167 birds per year with very strong statistical support for an overall declining trend in abundance. Over the 16-year monitoring period, the estimated rate of change equated to a 68% decline in the population.

Chemical composition of Mars

USGS Publications Warehouse

Morgan, J.W.; Anders, E.

1979-01-01

The composition of Mars has been calculated from the cosmochemical model of Ganapathy and Anders (1974) which assumes that planets and chondrites underwent the same 4 fractionation processes in the solar nebula. Because elements of similar volatility stay together in these processes, only 4 index elements (U, Fe, K and Tl or Ar36) are needed to calculate the abundances of all 83 elements in the planet. The values chosen are U = 28 ppb, K = 62 ppm (based on K U = 2200 from orbital ??-spectrometry and on thermal history calculations by Tokso??z and Hsui (1978) Fe = 26.72% (from geophysical data), and Tl = 0.14 ppb (from the Ar36 and Ar40 abundances measured by Viking). The mantle of Mars is an iron-rich [Mg/(Mg + Fe) = 0.77] garnet wehrlite (?? = 3.52-3.54 g/cm3), similar to McGetchin and Smyth's (1978) estimate but containing more Ca and Al. It is nearly identical to the bulk Moon composition of Morgan et al. (1978b). The core makes up 0.19 of the planet and contains 3.5% S-much less than estimated by other models. Volatiles have nearly Moon-like abundances, being depleted relative to the Earth by factors of 0.36 (K-group, Tcond = 600-1300 K) or 0.029 (Tl group, Tcond < 600 K). The water abundance corresponds to a 9 m layer, but could be higher by as much as a factor of 11. Comparison of model compositions for 5 differentiated planets (Earth, Venus, Mars, Moon, and eucrite parent body) suggests that volatile depletion correlates mainly with size rather than with radial distance from the Sun. However, the relatively high volatile content of shergottites and some chondrites shows that the correlation is not simple; other factors must also be involved. ?? 1979.

Carbon and oxygen abundances in cool metal-rich exoplanet hosts: A case study of the C/O ratio of 55 Cancri

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Teske, Johanna K.; Cunha, Katia; Schuler, Simon C.

2013-12-01

The super-Earth exoplanet 55 Cnc e, the smallest member of a five-planet system, has recently been observed to transit its host star. The radius estimates from transit observations, coupled with spectroscopic determinations of mass, provide constraints on its interior composition. The composition of exoplanetary interiors and atmospheres are particularly sensitive to elemental C/O ratio, which to first order can be estimated from the host stars. Results from a recent spectroscopic study analyzing the 6300 Å [O I] line and two C I lines suggest that 55 Cnc has a carbon-rich composition (C/O = 1.12 ± 0.09). However, oxygen abundances derivedmore » using the 6300 Å [O I] line are highly sensitive to a Ni I blend, particularly in metal-rich stars such as 55 Cnc ([Fe/H] =0.34 ± 0.18). Here, we further investigate 55 Cnc's composition by deriving the carbon and oxygen abundances from these and additional C and O absorption features. We find that the measured C/O ratio depends on the oxygen lines used. The C/O ratio that we derive based on the 6300 Å [O I] line alone is consistent with the previous value. Yet, our investigation of additional abundance indicators results in a mean C/O ratio of 0.78 ± 0.08. The lower C/O ratio of 55 Cnc determined here may place this system at the sensitive boundary between protoplanetary disk compositions giving rise to planets with high (>0.8) versus low (<0.8) C/O ratios. This study illustrates the caution that must applied when determining planet host star C/O ratios, particularly in cool, metal-rich stars.« less

Secretive marsh aird species co-eccurrences and habitat associations across the midwest, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bolenbaugh, Jason R.; Krementz, David G.; Lehnen, Sarah E.

2011-01-01

Because secretive marsh birds are difficult to detect, population status and habitat use for these birds are not well known. We conducted repeated surveys for secretive marsh birds across 264 sites in the Upper Mississippi River and Great Lakes Joint Venture region to estimate abundance, occupancy, and detection probabilities during the 2008 and 2009 breeding seasons. We identified species groups based on observed species co-occurrences. Two species, least bittern Ixobrychus exilis and American bittern Botaurus lentiginosus, co-occurred with other species less often than expected by chance, and two species groups, rails (Virginia rail Rallus limicola and sora Porzana carolina) and open-water birds (pied-billed grebe Podilymbus podiceps, common moorhen Gallinula chloropus, and American coot Fulica americana; coots were only surveyed in 2009), co-occurred more often than expected by chance. These groupings were consistent between years. We then estimated the relation of these species and groups to landscape and local site characteristics by using zero-inflated abundance models that accounted for incomplete detection. At the landscape level (5-km radius), the amount of emergent herbaceous wetland was positively associated with least bittern occupancy, whereas the amount of woody wetland was negatively associated with least bittern, rail, and open-water bird occupancy. At the local level, habitat variables that were associated with abundance were not consistent among groups or between years, with the exception that both least bitterns and open-water birds had a strong positive association between abundance and water-vegetation interspersion. Land managers interested in marsh bird management or conservation may want to consider focusing efforts on landscapes with high amounts of emergent herbaceous wetland and low amounts of woody wetland, and managing for high amounts of water-vegetation interspersion within the wetland.

Geo-Referenced, Abundance Calibrated Ocean Distribution of Chinook Salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) Stocks across the West Coast of North America.

PubMed

Bellinger, M Renee; Banks, Michael A; Bates, Sarah J; Crandall, Eric D; Garza, John Carlos; Sylvia, Gil; Lawson, Peter W

2015-01-01

Understanding seasonal migration and localized persistence of populations is critical for effective species harvest and conservation management. Pacific salmon (genus Oncorhynchus) forecasting models predict stock composition, abundance, and distribution during annual assessments of proposed fisheries impacts. Most models, however, fail to account for the influence of biophysical factors on year-to-year fluctuations in migratory distributions and stock-specific survival. In this study, the ocean distribution and relative abundance of Chinook salmon (O. tshawytscha) stocks encountered in the California Current large marine ecosystem, U.S.A were inferred using catch-per-unit effort (CPUE) fisheries and genetic stock identification data. In contrast to stock distributions estimated through coded-wire-tag recoveries (typically limited to hatchery salmon), stock-specific CPUE provides information for both wild and hatchery fish. Furthermore, in contrast to stock composition results, the stock-specific CPUE metric is independent of other stocks and is easily interpreted over multiple temporal or spatial scales. Tests for correlations between stock-specific CPUE and stock composition estimates revealed these measures diverged once proportional contributions of locally rare stocks were excluded from data sets. A novel aspect of this study was collection of data both in areas closed to commercial fisheries and during normal, open commercial fisheries. Because fishing fleet efficiency influences catch rates, we tested whether CPUE differed between closed area (non-retention) and open area (retention) data sets. A weak effect was indicated for some, but not all, analyzed cases. Novel visualizations produced from stock-specific CPUE-based ocean abundance facilitates consideration of how highly refined, spatial and genetic information could be incorporated in ocean fisheries management systems and for investigations of biogeographic factors that influence migratory distributions of fish.

A comparison of multiple indicator kriging and area-to-point Poisson kriging for mapping patterns of herbivore species abundance in Kruger National Park, South Africa

PubMed Central

Kerry, Ruth; Goovaerts, Pierre; Smit, Izak P.J.; Ingram, Ben R.

2015-01-01

Kruger National Park (KNP), South Africa, provides protected habitats for the unique animals of the African savannah. For the past 40 years, annual aerial surveys of herbivores have been conducted to aid management decisions based on (1) the spatial distribution of species throughout the park and (2) total species populations in a year. The surveys are extremely time consuming and costly. For many years, the whole park was surveyed, but in 1998 a transect survey approach was adopted. This is cheaper and less time consuming but leaves gaps in the data spatially. Also the distance method currently employed by the park only gives estimates of total species populations but not their spatial distribution. We compare the ability of multiple indicator kriging and area-to-point Poisson kriging to accurately map species distribution in the park. A leave-one-out cross-validation approach indicates that multiple indicator kriging makes poor estimates of the number of animals, particularly the few large counts, as the indicator variograms for such high thresholds are pure nugget. Poisson kriging was applied to the prediction of two types of abundance data: spatial density and proportion of a given species. Both Poisson approaches had standardized mean absolute errors (St. MAEs) of animal counts at least an order of magnitude lower than multiple indicator kriging. The spatial density, Poisson approach (1), gave the lowest St. MAEs for the most abundant species and the proportion, Poisson approach (2), did for the least abundant species. Incorporating environmental data into Poisson approach (2) further reduced St. MAEs. PMID:25729318

A comparison of multiple indicator kriging and area-to-point Poisson kriging for mapping patterns of herbivore species abundance in Kruger National Park, South Africa.

PubMed

Kerry, Ruth; Goovaerts, Pierre; Smit, Izak P J; Ingram, Ben R

Kruger National Park (KNP), South Africa, provides protected habitats for the unique animals of the African savannah. For the past 40 years, annual aerial surveys of herbivores have been conducted to aid management decisions based on (1) the spatial distribution of species throughout the park and (2) total species populations in a year. The surveys are extremely time consuming and costly. For many years, the whole park was surveyed, but in 1998 a transect survey approach was adopted. This is cheaper and less time consuming but leaves gaps in the data spatially. Also the distance method currently employed by the park only gives estimates of total species populations but not their spatial distribution. We compare the ability of multiple indicator kriging and area-to-point Poisson kriging to accurately map species distribution in the park. A leave-one-out cross-validation approach indicates that multiple indicator kriging makes poor estimates of the number of animals, particularly the few large counts, as the indicator variograms for such high thresholds are pure nugget. Poisson kriging was applied to the prediction of two types of abundance data: spatial density and proportion of a given species. Both Poisson approaches had standardized mean absolute errors (St. MAEs) of animal counts at least an order of magnitude lower than multiple indicator kriging. The spatial density, Poisson approach (1), gave the lowest St. MAEs for the most abundant species and the proportion, Poisson approach (2), did for the least abundant species. Incorporating environmental data into Poisson approach (2) further reduced St. MAEs.

Geo-Referenced, Abundance Calibrated Ocean Distribution of Chinook Salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) Stocks across the West Coast of North America

PubMed Central

Bellinger, M. Renee; Banks, Michael A.; Bates, Sarah J.; Crandall, Eric D.; Garza, John Carlos; Sylvia, Gil; Lawson, Peter W.

2015-01-01

Understanding seasonal migration and localized persistence of populations is critical for effective species harvest and conservation management. Pacific salmon (genus Oncorhynchus) forecasting models predict stock composition, abundance, and distribution during annual assessments of proposed fisheries impacts. Most models, however, fail to account for the influence of biophysical factors on year-to-year fluctuations in migratory distributions and stock-specific survival. In this study, the ocean distribution and relative abundance of Chinook salmon (O. tshawytscha) stocks encountered in the California Current large marine ecosystem, U.S.A were inferred using catch-per-unit effort (CPUE) fisheries and genetic stock identification data. In contrast to stock distributions estimated through coded-wire-tag recoveries (typically limited to hatchery salmon), stock-specific CPUE provides information for both wild and hatchery fish. Furthermore, in contrast to stock composition results, the stock-specific CPUE metric is independent of other stocks and is easily interpreted over multiple temporal or spatial scales. Tests for correlations between stock-specific CPUE and stock composition estimates revealed these measures diverged once proportional contributions of locally rare stocks were excluded from data sets. A novel aspect of this study was collection of data both in areas closed to commercial fisheries and during normal, open commercial fisheries. Because fishing fleet efficiency influences catch rates, we tested whether CPUE differed between closed area (non-retention) and open area (retention) data sets. A weak effect was indicated for some, but not all, analyzed cases. Novel visualizations produced from stock-specific CPUE-based ocean abundance facilitates consideration of how highly refined, spatial and genetic information could be incorporated in ocean fisheries management systems and for investigations of biogeographic factors that influence migratory distributions of fish. PMID:26200779

Euphausiid distribution along the Western Antarctic Peninsula—Part A: Development of robust multi-frequency acoustic techniques to identify euphausiid aggregations and quantify euphausiid size, abundance, and biomass

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lawson, Gareth L.; Wiebe, Peter H.; Stanton, Timothy K.; Ashjian, Carin J.

2008-02-01

Methods were refined and tested for identifying the aggregations of Antarctic euphausiids ( Euphausia spp.) and then estimating euphausiid size, abundance, and biomass, based on multi-frequency acoustic survey data. A threshold level of volume backscattering strength for distinguishing euphausiid aggregations from other zooplankton was derived on the basis of published measurements of euphausiid visual acuity and estimates of the minimum density of animals over which an individual can maintain visual contact with its nearest neighbor. Differences in mean volume backscattering strength at 120 and 43 kHz further served to distinguish euphausiids from other sources of scattering. An inversion method was then developed to estimate simultaneously the mean length and density of euphausiids in these acoustically identified aggregations based on measurements of mean volume backscattering strength at four frequencies (43, 120, 200, and 420 kHz). The methods were tested at certain locations within an acoustically surveyed continental shelf region in and around Marguerite Bay, west of the Antarctic Peninsula, where independent evidence was also available from net and video systems. Inversion results at these test sites were similar to net samples for estimated length, but acoustic estimates of euphausiid density exceeded those from nets by one to two orders of magnitude, likely due primarily to avoidance and to a lesser extent to differences in the volumes sampled by the two systems. In a companion study, these methods were applied to the full acoustic survey data in order to examine the distribution of euphausiids in relation to aspects of the physical and biological environment [Lawson, G.L., Wiebe, P.H., Ashjian, C.J., Stanton, T.K., 2008. Euphausiid distribution along the Western Antarctic Peninsula—Part B: Distribution of euphausiid aggregations and biomass, and associations with environmental features. Deep-Sea Research II, this issue [doi:10.1016/j.dsr2.2007.11.014

Estimating equivalence with quantile regression

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cade, B.S.

2011-01-01

Equivalence testing and corresponding confidence interval estimates are used to provide more enlightened statistical statements about parameter estimates by relating them to intervals of effect sizes deemed to be of scientific or practical importance rather than just to an effect size of zero. Equivalence tests and confidence interval estimates are based on a null hypothesis that a parameter estimate is either outside (inequivalence hypothesis) or inside (equivalence hypothesis) an equivalence region, depending on the question of interest and assignment of risk. The former approach, often referred to as bioequivalence testing, is often used in regulatory settings because it reverses the burden of proof compared to a standard test of significance, following a precautionary principle for environmental protection. Unfortunately, many applications of equivalence testing focus on establishing average equivalence by estimating differences in means of distributions that do not have homogeneous variances. I discuss how to compare equivalence across quantiles of distributions using confidence intervals on quantile regression estimates that detect differences in heterogeneous distributions missed by focusing on means. I used one-tailed confidence intervals based on inequivalence hypotheses in a two-group treatment-control design for estimating bioequivalence of arsenic concentrations in soils at an old ammunition testing site and bioequivalence of vegetation biomass at a reclaimed mining site. Two-tailed confidence intervals based both on inequivalence and equivalence hypotheses were used to examine quantile equivalence for negligible trends over time for a continuous exponential model of amphibian abundance. ?? 2011 by the Ecological Society of America.

Australasian microtektites and associated impact ejecta in the South China Sea and the Middle Pleistocene supereruption of Toba

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glass, Billy P.; Koeberl, Christian

2006-02-01

Australasian microtektites were discovered in Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Hole 1143A in the central part of the South China Sea. Unmelted ejecta were found associated with the microtektites at this site and with Australasian microtektites in Core SO95-17957-2 and ODP Hole 1144A from the central and northern part of the South China Sea, respectively. A few opaque, irregular, rounded, partly melted particles containing highly fractured mineral inclusions (generally quartz and some K feldspar) and some partially melted mineral grains, in a glassy matrix were also found in the microtektite layer. The unmelted ejecta at all three sites include abundant white, opaque grains consisting of mixtures of quartz, coesite, and stishovite, and abundant rock fragments which also contain coesite and, rarely, stishovite. This is the first time that shock-metamorphosed rock fragments have been found in the Australasian microtektite layer. The rock fragments have major and trace element contents similar to the Australasian microtektites and tektites, except for higher volatile element contents. Assuming that the Australasian tektites and microtektites were formed from the same target material as the rock fragments, the parent material for the Australasian tektites and microtektites appears to have been a fine-grained sedimentary deposit. Hole 1144A has the highest abundance of microtektites (number/cm2) of any known Australasian microtektite-bearing site and may be closer to the source crater than any previously identified Australasian microtektite-bearing site. A source crater in the vicinity of 22° N and 104° E seems to explain geographic variations in abundance of both the microtektites and the unmelted ejecta the best; however, a region extending NW into southern China and SE into the Gulf of Tonkin explains the geographic variation in abundance of microtektites and unmelted ejecta almost as well. The size of the source crater is estimated to be 43 ± 9 km based on estimated thickness of the ejecta layer at each site and distance from the proposed source. A volcanic ash layer occurs just above the Australasian microtektite layer, which some authors suggest is from a supereruption of the Toba caldera complex. We estimate that deposition of the ash occurred ˜800 ka ago and that it is spread over an area of at least 3.7 × 107 km2.

ELEMENT MASSES IN THE CRAB NEBULA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sibley, Adam R.; Katz, Andrea M.; Satterfield, Timothy J.

Using our previously published element abundance or mass-fraction distributions in the Crab Nebula, we derived actual mass distributions and estimates for overall nebular masses of hydrogen, helium, carbon, nitrogen, oxygen and sulfur. As with the previous work, computations were carried out for photoionization models involving constant hydrogen density and also constant nuclear density. In addition, employing new flux measurements for [Ni ii]  λ 7378, along with combined photoionization models and analytic computations, a nickel abundance distribution was mapped and a nebular stable nickel mass estimate was derived.

A fast fully constrained geometric unmixing of hyperspectral images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Xin; Li, Xiao-run; Cui, Jian-tao; Zhao, Liao-ying; Zheng, Jun-peng

2014-11-01

A great challenge in hyperspectral image analysis is decomposing a mixed pixel into a collection of endmembers and their corresponding abundance fractions. This paper presents an improved implementation of Barycentric Coordinate approach to unmix hyperspectral images, integrating with the Most-Negative Remove Projection method to meet the abundance sum-to-one constraint (ASC) and abundance non-negativity constraint (ANC). The original barycentric coordinate approach interprets the endmember unmixing problem as a simplex volume ratio problem, which is solved by calculate the determinants of two augmented matrix. One consists of all the members and the other consist of the to-be-unmixed pixel and all the endmembers except for the one corresponding to the specific abundance that is to be estimated. In this paper, we first modified the algorithm of Barycentric Coordinate approach by bringing in the Matrix Determinant Lemma to simplify the unmixing process, which makes the calculation only contains linear matrix and vector operations. So, the matrix determinant calculation of every pixel, as the original algorithm did, is avoided. By the end of this step, the estimated abundance meet the ASC constraint. Then, the Most-Negative Remove Projection method is used to make the abundance fractions meet the full constraints. This algorithm is demonstrated both on synthetic and real images. The resulting algorithm yields the abundance maps that are similar to those obtained by FCLS, while the runtime is outperformed as its computational simplicity.

A statistical framework for protein quantitation in bottom-up MS-based proteomics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Karpievitch, Yuliya; Stanley, Jeffrey R.; Taverner, Thomas

2009-08-15

ABSTRACT Motivation: Quantitative mass spectrometry-based proteomics requires protein-level estimates and confidence measures. Challenges include the presence of low-quality or incorrectly identified peptides and widespread, informative, missing data. Furthermore, models are required for rolling peptide-level information up to the protein level. Results: We present a statistical model for protein abundance in terms of peptide peak intensities, applicable to both label-based and label-free quantitation experiments. The model allows for both random and censoring missingness mechanisms and provides naturally for protein-level estimates and confidence measures. The model is also used to derive automated filtering and imputation routines. Three LC-MS datasets are used tomore » illustrate the methods. Availability: The software has been made available in the open-source proteomics platform DAnTE (Polpitiya et al. (2008)) (http://omics.pnl.gov/software/). Contact: adabney@stat.tamu.edu« less

Precision and relative effectiveness of a purse seine for sampling age-0 river herring in lakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Devine, Matthew T.; Roy, Allison; Whiteley, Andrew R.; Gahagan, Benjamin I.; Armstrong, Michael P.; Jordaan, Adrian

2018-01-01

Stock assessments for anadromous river herring, collectively Alewife Alosa pseudoharengus and Blueback Herring A. aestivalis, lack adequate demographic information, particularly with respect to early life stages. Although sampling adult river herring is increasingly common throughout their range, currently no standardized, field‐based, analytical methods exist for estimating juvenile abundance in freshwater lakes. The objective of this research was to evaluate the relative effectiveness and sampling precision of a purse seine for estimating densities of age‐0 river herring in freshwater lakes. We used a purse seine to sample age‐0 river herring in June–September 2015 and June–July 2016 in 16 coastal freshwater lakes in the northeastern USA. Sampling effort varied from two seine hauls to more than 50 seine hauls per lake. Catch rates were highest in June and July, and sampling precision was maximized in July. Sampling at night (versus day) in open water (versus littoral areas) was most effective for capturing newly hatched larvae and juveniles up to ca. 100 mm TL. Bootstrap simulation results indicated that sampling precision of CPUE estimates increased with sampling effort, and there was a clear threshold beyond which increased effort resulted in negligible increases in precision. The effort required to produce precise CPUE estimates, as determined by the CV, was dependent on lake size; river herring densities could be estimated with up to 10 purse‐seine hauls (one‐two nights) in a small lake (<50 ha) and 15–20 hauls (two‐three nights) in a large lake (>50 ha). Fish collection techniques using a purse seine as described in this paper are likely to be effective for estimating recruit abundance of river herring in freshwater lakes across their range.

A Re-Evaluation of the Size of the White Shark (Carcharodon carcharias) Population off California, USA

PubMed Central

Burgess, George H.; Bruce, Barry D.; Cailliet, Gregor M.; Goldman, Kenneth J.; Grubbs, R. Dean; Lowe, Christopher G.; MacNeil, M. Aaron; Mollet, Henry F.; Weng, Kevin C.; O'Sullivan, John B.

2014-01-01

White sharks are highly migratory and segregate by sex, age and size. Unlike marine mammals, they neither surface to breathe nor frequent haul-out sites, hindering generation of abundance data required to estimate population size. A recent tag-recapture study used photographic identifications of white sharks at two aggregation sites to estimate abundance in “central California” at 219 mature and sub-adult individuals. They concluded this represented approximately one-half of the total abundance of mature and sub-adult sharks in the entire eastern North Pacific Ocean (ENP). This low estimate generated great concern within the conservation community, prompting petitions for governmental endangered species designations. We critically examine that study and find violations of model assumptions that, when considered in total, lead to population underestimates. We also use a Bayesian mixture model to demonstrate that the inclusion of transient sharks, characteristic of white shark aggregation sites, would substantially increase abundance estimates for the adults and sub-adults in the surveyed sub-population. Using a dataset obtained from the same sampling locations and widely accepted demographic methodology, our analysis indicates a minimum all-life stages population size of >2000 individuals in the California subpopulation is required to account for the number and size range of individual sharks observed at the two sampled sites. Even accounting for methodological and conceptual biases, an extrapolation of these data to estimate the white shark population size throughout the ENP is inappropriate. The true ENP white shark population size is likely several-fold greater as both our study and the original published estimate exclude non-aggregating sharks and those that independently aggregate at other important ENP sites. Accurately estimating the central California and ENP white shark population size requires methodologies that account for biases introduced by sampling a limited number of sites and that account for all life history stages across the species' range of habitats. PMID:24932483

A re-evaluation of the size of the white shark (Carcharodon carcharias) population off California, USA.

PubMed

Burgess, George H; Bruce, Barry D; Cailliet, Gregor M; Goldman, Kenneth J; Grubbs, R Dean; Lowe, Christopher G; MacNeil, M Aaron; Mollet, Henry F; Weng, Kevin C; O'Sullivan, John B

2014-01-01

White sharks are highly migratory and segregate by sex, age and size. Unlike marine mammals, they neither surface to breathe nor frequent haul-out sites, hindering generation of abundance data required to estimate population size. A recent tag-recapture study used photographic identifications of white sharks at two aggregation sites to estimate abundance in "central California" at 219 mature and sub-adult individuals. They concluded this represented approximately one-half of the total abundance of mature and sub-adult sharks in the entire eastern North Pacific Ocean (ENP). This low estimate generated great concern within the conservation community, prompting petitions for governmental endangered species designations. We critically examine that study and find violations of model assumptions that, when considered in total, lead to population underestimates. We also use a Bayesian mixture model to demonstrate that the inclusion of transient sharks, characteristic of white shark aggregation sites, would substantially increase abundance estimates for the adults and sub-adults in the surveyed sub-population. Using a dataset obtained from the same sampling locations and widely accepted demographic methodology, our analysis indicates a minimum all-life stages population size of >2000 individuals in the California subpopulation is required to account for the number and size range of individual sharks observed at the two sampled sites. Even accounting for methodological and conceptual biases, an extrapolation of these data to estimate the white shark population size throughout the ENP is inappropriate. The true ENP white shark population size is likely several-fold greater as both our study and the original published estimate exclude non-aggregating sharks and those that independently aggregate at other important ENP sites. Accurately estimating the central California and ENP white shark population size requires methodologies that account for biases introduced by sampling a limited number of sites and that account for all life history stages across the species' range of habitats.

Trends in the distribution of recent foraminifera in San Francisco Bay

USGS Publications Warehouse

Arnal, R.E.; Quinterno, P.J.; Conomos, T.J.; Gram, Ralph

1980-01-01

Thirty-one species of benthonic foraminifera were identified in surficial sediments of San Francisco Bay estuary; of these, 20 species were stained red by rose Bengal and are considered as live. Water depth, sediment textural characteristics, salinity, organic matter, sediment pH, and biological competition were considered as factors that might affect distribution of foraminifera. Four ecologic zones based on observed trends in the distribution and abundance of several species correlate well with some environmental factors. Four groups based on the Q-mode analysis of frequency counts of foraminiferal assemblages are reasonably similar to the four ecologic zones. These zones, showing restricted depth ranges, are: Inner Coastal Zone, where Elphidium incertum obscurum and Trochammina infiata are prominent; Outer Coastal Zone, dominated by Ammonia beccarii tepida and Elphidium incatum; Deep Bay Zone, where Elphidietla hannai, Elphidium incertum clavatum, Hopkinsina pacifica, and Bolivina spp. appear in abundance; and Deep Channel Zone, where Elphidiella hannai is most abundant. In the Inner Coastal Zone, salinity due to large fluctuations is a limiting factor for many species. Substrate textural characteristics are primary determinants of the distribution of agglutinated foraminifers. The percentage of organic matter in the sediment correlates well with the abundance of Elphidium incertum obscurum, a ubiquitous species in San Francisco Bay. Sediment pH is not critical. Biologic competition can be estimated by comparing the percentage of a species with the number of species present in the assemblage, as shown for Ammonia beccarii tepida and Elphidiella hannai.

HD 179821 (V1427 Aql, IRAS 19114+0002) - a massive post-red supergiant star?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Şahin, T.; Lambert, David L.; Klochkova, Valentina G.; Panchuk, Vladimir E.

2016-10-01

We have derived elemental abundances of a remarkable star, HD 179821, with unusual composition (e.g. [Na/Fe] = 1.0 ± 0.2 dex) and extra-ordinary spectral characteristics. Its metallicity at [Fe/H] = 0.4 dex places it among the most metal-rich stars yet analysed. The abundance analysis of this luminous star is based on high-resolution and high-quality (S/N ≈ 120-420) optical echelle spectra from McDonald Observatory and Special Astronomy Observatory. The data includes five years of observations over 21 epochs. Standard 1D local thermodynamic equilibrium analysis provides a fresh determination of the atmospheric parameters over all epochs: Teff = 7350 ± 200 K, log g= +0.6 ± 0.3, and a microturbulent velocity ξ = 6.6 ± 1.6 km s-1 and [Fe/H] = 0.4 ± 0.2, and a carbon abundance [C/Fe] = -0.19 ± 0.30. We find oxygen abundance [O/Fe] = -0.25 ± 0.28 and an enhancement of 0.9 dex in N. A supersonic macroturbulent velocity of 22.0 ± 2.0 km s-1 is determined from both strong and weak Fe I and Fe II lines. Elemental abundances are obtained for 22 elements. HD 179821 is not enriched in s-process products. Eu is overabundant relative to the anticipated [X/Fe] ≈ 0.0. Some peculiarities of its optical spectrum (e.g. variability in the spectral line shapes) is noticed. This includes the line profile variations for H α line. Based on its estimated luminosity, effective temperature and surface gravity, HD 179821 is a massive star evolving to become a red supergiant and finally a Type II supernova.