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Sample records for abundance estimates based

  1. Estimating abundance

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sutherland, Chris; Royle, Andy

    2016-01-01

    This chapter provides a non-technical overview of ‘closed population capture–recapture’ models, a class of well-established models that are widely applied in ecology, such as removal sampling, covariate models, and distance sampling. These methods are regularly adopted for studies of reptiles, in order to estimate abundance from counts of marked individuals while accounting for imperfect detection. Thus, the chapter describes some classic closed population models for estimating abundance, with considerations for some recent extensions that provide a spatial context for the estimation of abundance, and therefore density. Finally, the chapter suggests some software for use in data analysis, such as the Windows-based program MARK, and provides an example of estimating abundance and density of reptiles using an artificial cover object survey of Slow Worms (Anguis fragilis).

  2. Estimating abundance: Chapter 27

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Royle, J. Andrew

    2016-01-01

    This chapter provides a non-technical overview of ‘closed population capture–recapture’ models, a class of well-established models that are widely applied in ecology, such as removal sampling, covariate models, and distance sampling. These methods are regularly adopted for studies of reptiles, in order to estimate abundance from counts of marked individuals while accounting for imperfect detection. Thus, the chapter describes some classic closed population models for estimating abundance, with considerations for some recent extensions that provide a spatial context for the estimation of abundance, and therefore density. Finally, the chapter suggests some software for use in data analysis, such as the Windows-based program MARK, and provides an example of estimating abundance and density of reptiles using an artificial cover object survey of Slow Worms (Anguis fragilis).

  3. Estimating time-based instantaneous total mortality rate based on the age-structured abundance index

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Yingbin; Jiao, Yan

    2015-05-01

    The instantaneous total mortality rate ( Z) of a fish population is one of the important parameters in fisheries stock assessment. The estimation of Z is crucial to fish population dynamics analysis, abundance and catch forecast, and fisheries management. A catch curve-based method for estimating time-based Z and its change trend from catch per unit effort (CPUE) data of multiple cohorts is developed. Unlike the traditional catch-curve method, the method developed here does not need the assumption of constant Z throughout the time, but the Z values in n continuous years are assumed constant, and then the Z values in different n continuous years are estimated using the age-based CPUE data within these years. The results of the simulation analyses show that the trends of the estimated time-based Z are consistent with the trends of the true Z, and the estimated rates of change from this approach are close to the true change rates (the relative differences between the change rates of the estimated Z and the true Z are smaller than 10%). Variations of both Z and recruitment can affect the estimates of Z value and the trend of Z. The most appropriate value of n can be different given the effects of different factors. Therefore, the appropriate value of n for different fisheries should be determined through a simulation analysis as we demonstrated in this study. Further analyses suggested that selectivity and age estimation are also two factors that can affect the estimated Z values if there is error in either of them, but the estimated change rates of Z are still close to the true change rates. We also applied this approach to the Atlantic cod ( Gadus morhua) fishery of eastern Newfoundland and Labrador from 1983 to 1997, and obtained reasonable estimates of time-based Z.

  4. Abundance estimation and conservation biology

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nichols, J.D.; MacKenzie, D.I.

    2004-01-01

    should be focused on relationships between demographic processes such as survival and recruitment, the two quantities responsible for changes in abundance, rather than simply on the magnitudes of these quantities. They describe a type of Jolly–Seber capture–recapture model that permits inference about the underlying relationship between per capita recruitment rates and survival rates (Link & Barker, this volume). Implementation used Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods and appeared to work well, yielding inferences about the relationship between recruitment and survival that were robust to selection of prior distribution. We believe that readers will find their arguments compelling, and we expect to see increased use of hierarchical modeling approaches in capture–recapture and related fields. Otto (presentation without paper) also recommended use of hierarchical models in analysis of multiple data sources dealing with population dynamics of North American mallards. He integrated survival inferences from ringing data, abundance information from aerial survey data, and recruitment information based on age ratios from a harvest survey. He used a Leslie matrix population projection model as an integrating framework and obtained estimates of breeding population size using all data.Otto’s approach also permitted inference about biases in estimated quantities. As with the work of Link & Barker (2004), we find Otto’s recommendation to use hierarchical models to integrate data from multiple sources to be very compelling. Alisauskas et al. (2004) report results of an analysis of capture–recapture data for a askatchewan population of white–winged scoters. They used the approach of Pradel (1996) to estimate population growth rate (See the PDF) directly. Estimates for 1975–1985 were quite low, but estimates for the recent period, 2000–2003,increased to values > 1. Parameter estimates for seniority, survival and per capita recruitment (Pradel, 1996) led to the

  5. Evaluating abundance estimate precision and the assumptions of a count-based index for small mammals

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wiewel, A.S.; Adams, A.A.Y.; Rodda, G.H.

    2009-01-01

    Conservation and management of small mammals requires reliable knowledge of population size. We investigated precision of markrecapture and removal abundance estimates generated from live-trapping and snap-trapping data collected at sites on Guam (n 7), Rota (n 4), Saipan (n 5), and Tinian (n 3), in the Mariana Islands. We also evaluated a common index, captures per unit effort (CPUE), as a predictor of abundance. In addition, we evaluated cost and time associated with implementing live-trapping and snap-trapping and compared species-specific capture rates of selected live- and snap-traps. For all species, markrecapture estimates were consistently more precise than removal estimates based on coefficients of variation and 95 confidence intervals. The predictive utility of CPUE was poor but improved with increasing sampling duration. Nonetheless, modeling of sampling data revealed that underlying assumptions critical to application of an index of abundance, such as constant capture probability across space, time, and individuals, were not met. Although snap-trapping was cheaper and faster than live-trapping, the time difference was negligible when site preparation time was considered. Rattus diardii spp. captures were greatest in Haguruma live-traps (Standard Trading Co., Honolulu, HI) and Victor snap-traps (Woodstream Corporation, Lititz, PA), whereas Suncus murinus and Mus musculus captures were greatest in Sherman live-traps (H. B. Sherman Traps, Inc., Tallahassee, FL) and Museum Special snap-traps (Woodstream Corporation). Although snap-trapping and CPUE may have utility after validation against more rigorous methods, validation should occur across the full range of study conditions. Resources required for this level of validation would likely be better allocated towards implementing rigorous and robust methods.

  6. Improving removal-based estimates of abundance by sampling a population of spatially distinct subpopulations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dorazio, R.M.; Jelks, H.L.; Jordan, F.

    2005-01-01

     A statistical modeling framework is described for estimating the abundances of spatially distinct subpopulations of animals surveyed using removal sampling. To illustrate this framework, hierarchical models are developed using the Poisson and negative-binomial distributions to model variation in abundance among subpopulations and using the beta distribution to model variation in capture probabilities. These models are fitted to the removal counts observed in a survey of a federally endangered fish species. The resulting estimates of abundance have similar or better precision than those computed using the conventional approach of analyzing the removal counts of each subpopulation separately. Extension of the hierarchical models to include spatial covariates of abundance is straightforward and may be used to identify important features of an animal's habitat or to predict the abundance of animals at unsampled locations.

  7. Concepts and practices: Estimating abundance of prey species using hierarchical model-based approaches

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dorazio, Robert; Kumar, N. Samba; Royle, Andy; Gopalaswamy, Arjun M.

    2017-01-01

    Tigers predominantly prey on large ungulate species, such as sambar (Cervus unicolor), red deer (Cervus elaphus), gaur (Bos gaurus), banteng (Bos javanicus), chital (Axis axis), muntjac (Muntiacus muntjak), wild pig (Sus scrofa), and bearded pig (Sus barbatus). The density of a tiger population is strongly correlated with the density of such prey species (Karanth et al. 2004). In the absence of direct hunting of tigers, abundance of prey in an area is the key determinant of the “carrying capacity” of that area for tigers (Chap. 2). Accurate estimates of prey abundance are often needed to assess the potential number of tigers a conservation area can support.

  8. Effects of sampling conditions on DNA-based estimates of American black bear abundance

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Laufenberg, Jared S.; Van Manen, Frank T.; Clark, Joseph D.

    2013-01-01

    DNA-based capture-mark-recapture techniques are commonly used to estimate American black bear (Ursus americanus) population abundance (N). Although the technique is well established, many questions remain regarding study design. In particular, relationships among N, capture probability of heterogeneity mixtures A and B (pA and pB, respectively, or p, collectively), the proportion of each mixture (π), number of capture occasions (k), and probability of obtaining reliable estimates of N are not fully understood. We investigated these relationships using 1) an empirical dataset of DNA samples for which true N was unknown and 2) simulated datasets with known properties that represented a broader array of sampling conditions. For the empirical data analysis, we used the full closed population with heterogeneity data type in Program MARK to estimate N for a black bear population in Great Smoky Mountains National Park, Tennessee. We systematically reduced the number of those samples used in the analysis to evaluate the effect that changes in capture probabilities may have on parameter estimates. Model-averaged N for females and males were 161 (95% CI = 114–272) and 100 (95% CI = 74–167), respectively (pooled N = 261, 95% CI = 192–419), and the average weekly p was 0.09 for females and 0.12 for males. When we reduced the number of samples of the empirical data, support for heterogeneity models decreased. For the simulation analysis, we generated capture data with individual heterogeneity covering a range of sampling conditions commonly encountered in DNA-based capture-mark-recapture studies and examined the relationships between those conditions and accuracy (i.e., probability of obtaining an estimated N that is within 20% of true N), coverage (i.e., probability that 95% confidence interval includes true N), and precision (i.e., probability of obtaining a coefficient of variation ≤20%) of estimates using logistic regression. The capture probability

  9. Palila abundance estimates and trend

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Camp, Richad; Banko, Paul C.

    2012-01-01

    The Palila (Loxioides bailleui) is an endangered, seed-eating, finch-billed honeycreeper found only on Hawai`i Island. Once occurring on the islands of Kaua`i and O`ahu and Mauna Loa and Hualālai volcanoes of Hawai`i, Palila are now found only in subalpine, dry-forest habitats on Mauna Kea (Banko et al. 2002). Previous analyses showed that Palila numbers fluctuated throughout the 1980s and 1990s but declined rapidly and steadily since 2003 (Jacobi et al. 1996, Leonard et al. 2008, Banko et al. 2009, Gorresen et al. 2009, Banko et al. in press). The aim of this report is to update abundance estimates for the Palila based on the 2012 surveys. We assess Palila trends over two periods: 1) the long-term trend during 1998–2012 and 2) the short-term trajectory between 2003 and 2012. The first period evaluates the population trend for the entire time series since additional transects were established (Johnson et al. 2006). These additional transects were established to produce a more precise population estimate and provide more complete coverage of the Palila range. The initial year for short-term trajectory was chosen subjectively to coincide with the recent decline in the Palila population. Additionally, stations in the core Palila habitat were surveyed on two occasions in 2012, thus allowing us to address the question of how repeat samples improve estimate precision.

  10. Palila abundance estimates and trends

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Banko, Paul C.; Brink, Kevin W.; Camp, Richard

    2014-01-01

    The palila (Loxioides bailleui) population was surveyed annually during 1998−2014 on Mauna Kea Volcano to determine abundance, population trend, and spatial distribution. In the latest surveys, the 2013 population was estimated at 1,492−2,132 birds (point estimate: 1,799) and the 2014 population was estimated at 1,697−2,508 (point estimate: 2,070). Similar numbers of palila were detected during the first and subsequent counts within each year during 2012−2014, and there was no difference in their detection probability due to count sequence. This suggests that greater precision in population estimates can be achieved if future surveys include repeat visits. No palila were detected outside the core survey area in 2013 or 2014, suggesting that most if not all palila inhabit the western slope during the survey period. Since 2003, the size of the area containing all annual palila detections do not indicate a significant change among years, suggesting that the range of the species has remained stable; although this area represents only about 5% of its historical extent. During 1998−2003, palila numbers fluctuated moderately (coefficient of variation [CV] = 0.21). After peaking in 2003, population estimates declined steadily through 2011; since 2010, estimates have fluctuated moderately above the 2011 minimum (CV = 0.18). The average rate of decline during 1998−2014 was 167 birds per year with very strong statistical support for an overall declining trend in abundance. Over the 16-year monitoring period, the estimated rate of change equated to a 68% decline in the population.

  11. EMSAR: estimation of transcript abundance from RNA-seq data by mappability-based segmentation and reclustering.

    PubMed

    Lee, Soohyun; Seo, Chae Hwa; Alver, Burak Han; Lee, Sanghyuk; Park, Peter J

    2015-09-03

    RNA-seq has been widely used for genome-wide expression profiling. RNA-seq data typically consists of tens of millions of short sequenced reads from different transcripts. However, due to sequence similarity among genes and among isoforms, the source of a given read is often ambiguous. Existing approaches for estimating expression levels from RNA-seq reads tend to compromise between accuracy and computational cost. We introduce a new approach for quantifying transcript abundance from RNA-seq data. EMSAR (Estimation by Mappability-based Segmentation And Reclustering) groups reads according to the set of transcripts to which they are mapped and finds maximum likelihood estimates using a joint Poisson model for each optimal set of segments of transcripts. The method uses nearly all mapped reads, including those mapped to multiple genes. With an efficient transcriptome indexing based on modified suffix arrays, EMSAR minimizes the use of CPU time and memory while achieving accuracy comparable to the best existing methods. EMSAR is a method for quantifying transcripts from RNA-seq data with high accuracy and low computational cost. EMSAR is available at https://github.com/parklab/emsar.

  12. 2015-2016 Palila abundance estimates

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Camp, Richard J.; Brinck, Kevin W.; Banko, Paul C.

    2016-01-01

    The palila (Loxioides bailleui) population was surveyed annually during 1998−2016 on Mauna Kea Volcano to determine abundance, population trend, and spatial distribution. In the latest surveys, the 2015 population was estimated at 852−1,406 birds (point estimate: 1,116) and the 2016 population was estimated at 1,494−2,385 (point estimate: 1,934). Similar numbers of palila were detected during the first and subsequent counts within each year during 2012−2016; the proportion of the total annual detections in each count ranged from 46% to 56%; and there was no difference in the detection probability due to count sequence. Furthermore, conducting repeat counts improved the abundance estimates by reducing the width of the confidence intervals between 9% and 32% annually. This suggests that multiple counts do not affect bird or observer behavior and can be continued in the future to improve the precision of abundance estimates. Five palila were detected on supplemental survey stations in the Ka‘ohe restoration area, outside the core survey area but still within Palila Critical Habitat (one in 2015 and four in 2016), suggesting that palila are present in habitat that is recovering from cattle grazing on the southwest slope. The average rate of decline during 1998−2016 was 150 birds per year. Over the 18-year monitoring period, the estimated rate of change equated to a 58% decline in the population.

  13. Occupancy as a surrogate for abundance estimation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    MacKenzie, D.I.; Nichols, J.D.

    2004-01-01

    In many monitoring programmes it may be prohibitively expensive to estimate the actual abundance of a bird species in a defined area, particularly at large spatial scales, or where birds occur at very low densities. Often it may be appropriate to consider the proportion of area occupied by the species as an alternative state variable. However, as with abundance estimation, issues of detectability must be taken into account in order to make accurate inferences: the non?detection of the species does not imply the species is genuinely absent. Here we review some recent modelling developments that permit unbiased estimation of the proportion of area occupied, colonization and local extinction probabilities. These methods allow for unequal sampling effort and enable covariate information on sampling locations to be incorporated. We also describe how these models could be extended to incorporate information from marked individuals, which would enable finer questions of population dynamics (such as turnover rate of nest sites by specific breeding pairs) to be addressed. We believe these models may be applicable to a wide range of bird species and may be useful for investigating various questions of ecological interest. For example, with respect to habitat quality, we might predict that a species is more likely to have higher local extinction probabilities, or higher turnover rates of specific breeding pairs, in poor quality habitats.

  14. Robust Abundance Estimation in Animal Abundance Surveys with Imperfect Detection

    EPA Science Inventory

    Surveys of animal abundance are central to the conservation and management of living natural resources. However, detection uncertainty complicates the sampling process of many species. One sampling method employed to deal with this problem is depletion (or removal) surveys in whi...

  15. Lincoln estimates of mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) abundance in North America.

    PubMed

    Alisauskas, Ray T; Arnold, Todd W; Leafloor, James O; Otis, David L; Sedinger, James S

    2014-01-01

    Estimates of range-wide abundance, harvest, and harvest rate are fundamental for sound inferences about the role of exploitation in the dynamics of free-ranging wildlife populations, but reliability of existing survey methods for abundance estimation is rarely assessed using alternative approaches. North American mallard populations have been surveyed each spring since 1955 using internationally coordinated aerial surveys, but population size can also be estimated with Lincoln's method using banding and harvest data. We estimated late summer population size of adult and juvenile male and female mallards in western, midcontinent, and eastern North America using Lincoln's method of dividing (i) total estimated harvest, [Formula: see text], by estimated harvest rate, [Formula: see text], calculated as (ii) direct band recovery rate, [Formula: see text], divided by the (iii) band reporting rate, [Formula: see text]. Our goal was to compare estimates based on Lincoln's method with traditional estimates based on aerial surveys. Lincoln estimates of adult males and females alive in the period June-September were 4.0 (range: 2.5-5.9), 1.8 (range: 0.6-3.0), and 1.8 (range: 1.3-2.7) times larger than respective aerial survey estimates for the western, midcontinent, and eastern mallard populations, and the two population estimates were only modestly correlated with each other (western: r = 0.70, 1993-2011; midcontinent: r = 0.54, 1961-2011; eastern: r = 0.50, 1993-2011). Higher Lincoln estimates are predictable given that the geographic scope of inference from Lincoln estimates is the entire population range, whereas sampling frames for aerial surveys are incomplete. Although each estimation method has a number of important potential biases, our review suggests that underestimation of total population size by aerial surveys is the most likely explanation. In addition to providing measures of total abundance, Lincoln's method provides estimates of fecundity and

  16. Generalized estimators of avian abundance from count survey data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Royle, J. Andrew

    2004-01-01

    I consider modeling avian abundance from spatially referenced bird count data collected according to common protocols such as capture?recapture, multiple observer, removal sampling and simple point counts. Small sample sizes and large numbers of parameters have motivated many analyses that disregard the spatial indexing of the data, and thus do not provide an adequate treatment of spatial structure. I describe a general framework for modeling spatially replicated data that regards local abundance as a random process, motivated by the view that the set of spatially referenced local populations (at the sample locations) constitute a metapopulation. Under this view, attention can be focused on developing a model for the variation in local abundance independent of the sampling protocol being considered. The metapopulation model structure, when combined with the data generating model, define a simple hierarchical model that can be analyzed using conventional methods. The proposed modeling framework is completely general in the sense that broad classes of metapopulation models may be considered, site level covariates on detection and abundance may be considered, and estimates of abundance and related quantities may be obtained for sample locations, groups of locations, unsampled locations. Two brief examples are given, the first involving simple point counts, and the second based on temporary removal counts. Extension of these models to open systems is briefly discussed.

  17. Estimates of brown bear abundance on Kodiak Island, Alaska

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Barnes, V.G.; Smith, R.B.

    1998-01-01

    During 1987-94 we used capture-mark-resight (CMR) methodology and rates of observation (bears/hour and bears/100 km2) of unmarked brown bears (Ursus arctos middendorffi) during intensive aerial surveys (IAS) to estimate abundance of brown bears on Kodiak Island and to establish a baseline for monitoring population trends. CMR estimates were obtained on 3 study areas; density ranged from 216-234 bears/1,000 km2 for independent animals and 292-342 bears/1,000 km2 including dependent offspring. Rates of observation during IAS ranged from 1.4-5.4 independent bears/hour and 2.9-18.0 independent bears/100 km2. Density estimates for independent bears on each IAS area were obtained by dividing mean number of bears observed during replicate surveys by estimated sightability (based on CMR-derived sightability in areas with similar habitat. Brown bear abundance on 21 geographic units of Kodiak Island and 3 nearby islands was estimated by extrapolation from CMR and IAS data using comparisons of habitat characteristics and sport harvest information. Population estimates for independent and total bears were 1,800 and 2,600. The CMR and IAS procedures offer alternative means, depending on management objective and available resources, of measuring population trend of brown bears on Kodiak Island.

  18. SP_Ace: Stellar Parameters And Chemical abundances Estimator

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boeche, C.; Grebel, E. K.

    2018-05-01

    SP_Ace (Stellar Parameters And Chemical abundances Estimator) estimates the stellar parameters Teff, log g, [M/H], and elemental abundances. It employs 1D stellar atmosphere models in Local Thermodynamic Equilibrium (LTE). The code is highly automated and suitable for analyzing the spectra of large spectroscopic surveys with low or medium spectral resolution (R = 2000-20 000). A web service for calculating these values with the software is also available.

  19. Estimating site occupancy and abundance using indirect detection indices

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Stanley, T.R.; Royle, J. Andrew

    2005-01-01

    Knowledge of factors influencing animal distribution and abundance is essential in many areas of ecological research, management, and policy-making. Because common methods for modeling and estimating abundance (e.g., capture-recapture, distance sampling) are sometimes not practical for large areas or elusive species, indices are sometimes used as surrogate measures of abundance. We present an extension of the Royle and Nichols (2003) generalization of the MacKenzie et al. (2002) site-occupancy model that incorporates length of the sampling interval into the, model for detection probability. As a result, we obtain a modeling framework that shows how useful information can be extracted from a class of index methods we call indirect detection indices (IDIs). Examples of IDIs include scent station, tracking tube, snow track, tracking plate, and hair snare surveys. Our model is maximum likelihood, and it can be used to estimate site occupancy and model factors influencing patterns of occupancy and abundance in space. Under certain circumstances, it can also be used to estimate abundance. We evaluated model properties using Monte Carlo simulations and illustrate the method with tracking tube and scent station data. We believe this model will be a useful tool for determining factors that influence animal distribution and abundance.

  20. Incorporating availability for detection in estimates of bird abundance

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Diefenbach, D.R.; Marshall, M.R.; Mattice, J.A.; Brauning, D.W.

    2007-01-01

    Several bird-survey methods have been proposed that provide an estimated detection probability so that bird-count statistics can be used to estimate bird abundance. However, some of these estimators adjust counts of birds observed by the probability that a bird is detected and assume that all birds are available to be detected at the time of the survey. We marked male Henslow's Sparrows (Ammodramus henslowii) and Grasshopper Sparrows (A. savannarum) and monitored their behavior during May-July 2002 and 2003 to estimate the proportion of time they were available for detection. We found that the availability of Henslow's Sparrows declined in late June to <10% for 5- or 10-min point counts when a male had to sing and be visible to the observer; but during 20 May-19 June, males were available for detection 39.1% (SD = 27.3) of the time for 5-min point counts and 43.9% (SD = 28.9) of the time for 10-min point counts (n = 54). We detected no temporal changes in availability for Grasshopper Sparrows, but estimated availability to be much lower for 5-min point counts (10.3%, SD = 12.2) than for 10-min point counts (19.2%, SD = 22.3) when males had to be visible and sing during the sampling period (n = 80). For distance sampling, we estimated the availability of Henslow's Sparrows to be 44.2% (SD = 29.0) and the availability of Grasshopper Sparrows to be 20.6% (SD = 23.5). We show how our estimates of availability can be incorporated in the abundance and variance estimators for distance sampling and modify the abundance and variance estimators for the double-observer method. Methods that directly estimate availability from bird counts but also incorporate detection probabilities need further development and will be important for obtaining unbiased estimates of abundance for these species.

  1. A collaborative approach for estimating terrestrial wildlife abundance

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ransom, Jason I.; Kaczensky, Petra; Lubow, Bruce C.; Ganbaatar, Oyunsaikhan; Altansukh, Nanjid

    2012-01-01

    Accurately estimating abundance of wildlife is critical for establishing effective conservation and management strategies. Aerial methodologies for estimating abundance are common in developed countries, but they are often impractical for remote areas of developing countries where many of the world's endangered and threatened fauna exist. The alternative terrestrial methodologies can be constrained by limitations on access, technology, and human resources, and have rarely been comprehensively conducted for large terrestrial mammals at landscape scales. We attempted to overcome these problems by incorporating local peoples into a simultaneous point count of Asiatic wild ass (Equus hemionus) and goitered gazelle (Gazella subgutturosa) across the Great Gobi B Strictly Protected Area, Mongolia. Paired observers collected abundance and covariate metrics at 50 observation points and we estimated population sizes using distance sampling theory, but also assessed individual observer error to examine potential bias introduced by the large number of minimally trained observers. We estimated 5671 (95% CI = 3611–8907) wild asses and 5909 (95% CI = 3762–9279) gazelle inhabited the 11,027 km2 study area at the time of our survey and found that the methodology developed was robust at absorbing the logistical challenges and wide range of observer abilities. This initiative serves as a functional model for estimating terrestrial wildlife abundance while integrating local people into scientific and conservation projects. This, in turn, creates vested interest in conservation by the people who are most influential in, and most affected by, the outcomes.

  2. Estimating abundance in the presence of species uncertainty

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Chambert, Thierry A.; Hossack, Blake R.; Fishback, LeeAnn; Davenport, Jon M.

    2016-01-01

    1.N-mixture models have become a popular method for estimating abundance of free-ranging animals that are not marked or identified individually. These models have been used on count data for single species that can be identified with certainty. However, co-occurring species often look similar during one or more life stages, making it difficult to assign species for all recorded captures. This uncertainty creates problems for estimating species-specific abundance and it can often limit life stages to which we can make inference. 2.We present a new extension of N-mixture models that accounts for species uncertainty. In addition to estimating site-specific abundances and detection probabilities, this model allows estimating probability of correct assignment of species identity. We implement this hierarchical model in a Bayesian framework and provide all code for running the model in BUGS-language programs. 3.We present an application of the model on count data from two sympatric freshwater fishes, the brook stickleback (Culaea inconstans) and the ninespine stickleback (Pungitius pungitius), ad illustrate implementation of covariate effects (habitat characteristics). In addition, we used a simulation study to validate the model and illustrate potential sample size issues. We also compared, for both real and simulated data, estimates provided by our model to those obtained by a simple N-mixture model when captures of unknown species identification were discarded. In the latter case, abundance estimates appeared highly biased and very imprecise, while our new model provided unbiased estimates with higher precision. 4.This extension of the N-mixture model should be useful for a wide variety of studies and taxa, as species uncertainty is a common issue. It should notably help improve investigation of abundance and vital rate characteristics of organisms’ early life stages, which are sometimes more difficult to identify than adults.

  3. Estimating abundance of mountain lions from unstructured spatial sampling

    Treesearch

    Robin E. Russell; J. Andrew Royle; Richard Desimone; Michael K. Schwartz; Victoria L. Edwards; Kristy P. Pilgrim; Kevin S. McKelvey

    2012-01-01

    Mountain lions (Puma concolor) are often difficult to monitor because of their low capture probabilities, extensive movements, and large territories. Methods for estimating the abundance of this species are needed to assess population status, determine harvest levels, evaluate the impacts of management actions on populations, and derive conservation and management...

  4. New aerial survey and hierarchical model to estimate manatee abundance

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Langimm, Cahterine A.; Dorazio, Robert M.; Stith, Bradley M.; Doyle, Terry J.

    2011-01-01

    Monitoring the response of endangered and protected species to hydrological restoration is a major component of the adaptive management framework of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan. The endangered Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) lives at the marine-freshwater interface in southwest Florida and is likely to be affected by hydrologic restoration. To provide managers with prerestoration information on distribution and abundance for postrestoration comparison, we developed and implemented a new aerial survey design and hierarchical statistical model to estimate and map abundance of manatees as a function of patch-specific habitat characteristics, indicative of manatee requirements for offshore forage (seagrass), inland fresh drinking water, and warm-water winter refuge. We estimated the number of groups of manatees from dual-observer counts and estimated the number of individuals within groups by removal sampling. Our model is unique in that we jointly analyzed group and individual counts using assumptions that allow probabilities of group detection to depend on group size. Ours is the first analysis of manatee aerial surveys to model spatial and temporal abundance of manatees in association with habitat type while accounting for imperfect detection. We conducted the study in the Ten Thousand Islands area of southwestern Florida, USA, which was expected to be affected by the Picayune Strand Restoration Project to restore hydrology altered for a failed real-estate development. We conducted 11 surveys in 2006, spanning the cold, dry season and warm, wet season. To examine short-term and seasonal changes in distribution we flew paired surveys 1–2 days apart within a given month during the year. Manatees were sparsely distributed across the landscape in small groups. Probability of detection of a group increased with group size; the magnitude of the relationship between group size and detection probability varied among surveys. Probability

  5. Evaluating noninvasive genetic sampling techniques to estimate large carnivore abundance.

    PubMed

    Mumma, Matthew A; Zieminski, Chris; Fuller, Todd K; Mahoney, Shane P; Waits, Lisette P

    2015-09-01

    Monitoring large carnivores is difficult because of intrinsically low densities and can be dangerous if physical capture is required. Noninvasive genetic sampling (NGS) is a safe and cost-effective alternative to physical capture. We evaluated the utility of two NGS methods (scat detection dogs and hair sampling) to obtain genetic samples for abundance estimation of coyotes, black bears and Canada lynx in three areas of Newfoundland, Canada. We calculated abundance estimates using program capwire, compared sampling costs, and the cost/sample for each method relative to species and study site, and performed simulations to determine the sampling intensity necessary to achieve abundance estimates with coefficients of variation (CV) of <10%. Scat sampling was effective for both coyotes and bears and hair snags effectively sampled bears in two of three study sites. Rub pads were ineffective in sampling coyotes and lynx. The precision of abundance estimates was dependent upon the number of captures/individual. Our simulations suggested that ~3.4 captures/individual will result in a < 10% CV for abundance estimates when populations are small (23-39), but fewer captures/individual may be sufficient for larger populations. We found scat sampling was more cost-effective for sampling multiple species, but suggest that hair sampling may be less expensive at study sites with limited road access for bears. Given the dependence of sampling scheme on species and study site, the optimal sampling scheme is likely to be study-specific warranting pilot studies in most circumstances. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  6. Estimating occupancy and abundance using aerial images with imperfect detection

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Williams, Perry J.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Womble, Jamie N.; Bower, Michael R.

    2017-01-01

    Species distribution and abundance are critical population characteristics for efficient management, conservation, and ecological insight. Point process models are a powerful tool for modelling distribution and abundance, and can incorporate many data types, including count data, presence-absence data, and presence-only data. Aerial photographic images are a natural tool for collecting data to fit point process models, but aerial images do not always capture all animals that are present at a site. Methods for estimating detection probability for aerial surveys usually include collecting auxiliary data to estimate the proportion of time animals are available to be detected.We developed an approach for fitting point process models using an N-mixture model framework to estimate detection probability for aerial occupancy and abundance surveys. Our method uses multiple aerial images taken of animals at the same spatial location to provide temporal replication of sample sites. The intersection of the images provide multiple counts of individuals at different times. We examined this approach using both simulated and real data of sea otters (Enhydra lutris kenyoni) in Glacier Bay National Park, southeastern Alaska.Using our proposed methods, we estimated detection probability of sea otters to be 0.76, the same as visual aerial surveys that have been used in the past. Further, simulations demonstrated that our approach is a promising tool for estimating occupancy, abundance, and detection probability from aerial photographic surveys.Our methods can be readily extended to data collected using unmanned aerial vehicles, as technology and regulations permit. The generality of our methods for other aerial surveys depends on how well surveys can be designed to meet the assumptions of N-mixture models.

  7. Estimating abundance of mountain lions from unstructured spatial sampling

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Russell, Robin E.; Royle, J. Andrew; Desimone, Richard; Schwartz, Michael K.; Edwards, Victoria L.; Pilgrim, Kristy P.; Mckelvey, Kevin S.

    2012-01-01

    Mountain lions (Puma concolor) are often difficult to monitor because of their low capture probabilities, extensive movements, and large territories. Methods for estimating the abundance of this species are needed to assess population status, determine harvest levels, evaluate the impacts of management actions on populations, and derive conservation and management strategies. Traditional mark–recapture methods do not explicitly account for differences in individual capture probabilities due to the spatial distribution of individuals in relation to survey effort (or trap locations). However, recent advances in the analysis of capture–recapture data have produced methods estimating abundance and density of animals from spatially explicit capture–recapture data that account for heterogeneity in capture probabilities due to the spatial organization of individuals and traps. We adapt recently developed spatial capture–recapture models to estimate density and abundance of mountain lions in western Montana. Volunteers and state agency personnel collected mountain lion DNA samples in portions of the Blackfoot drainage (7,908 km2) in west-central Montana using 2 methods: snow back-tracking mountain lion tracks to collect hair samples and biopsy darting treed mountain lions to obtain tissue samples. Overall, we recorded 72 individual capture events, including captures both with and without tissue sample collection and hair samples resulting in the identification of 50 individual mountain lions (30 females, 19 males, and 1 unknown sex individual). We estimated lion densities from 8 models containing effects of distance, sex, and survey effort on detection probability. Our population density estimates ranged from a minimum of 3.7 mountain lions/100 km2 (95% Cl 2.3–5.7) under the distance only model (including only an effect of distance on detection probability) to 6.7 (95% Cl 3.1–11.0) under the full model (including effects of distance, sex, survey effort, and

  8. Comparison of methods for estimating bird abundance and trends from historical count data

    Treesearch

    Frank R. Thompson; Frank A. La Sorte

    2008-01-01

    The use of bird counts as indices has come under increasing scrutiny because assumptions concerning detection probabilities may not be met, but there also seems to be some resistance to use of model-based approaches to estimating abundance. We used data from the United States Forest Service, Southern Region bird monitoring program to compare several common approaches...

  9. An evaluation of multipass electrofishing for estimating the abundance of stream-dwelling salmonids

    Treesearch

    James T. Peterson; Russell F. Thurow; John W. Guzevich

    2004-01-01

    Failure to estimate capture efficiency, defined as the probability of capturing individual fish, can introduce a systematic error or bias into estimates of fish abundance. We evaluated the efficacy of multipass electrofishing removal methods for estimating fish abundance by comparing estimates of capture efficiency from multipass removal estimates to capture...

  10. Optimal sampling design for estimating spatial distribution and abundance of a freshwater mussel population

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Pooler, P.S.; Smith, D.R.

    2005-01-01

    We compared the ability of simple random sampling (SRS) and a variety of systematic sampling (SYS) designs to estimate abundance, quantify spatial clustering, and predict spatial distribution of freshwater mussels. Sampling simulations were conducted using data obtained from a census of freshwater mussels in a 40 X 33 m section of the Cacapon River near Capon Bridge, West Virginia, and from a simulated spatially random population generated to have the same abundance as the real population. Sampling units that were 0.25 m 2 gave more accurate and precise abundance estimates and generally better spatial predictions than 1-m2 sampling units. Systematic sampling with ???2 random starts was more efficient than SRS. Estimates of abundance based on SYS were more accurate when the distance between sampling units across the stream was less than or equal to the distance between sampling units along the stream. Three measures for quantifying spatial clustering were examined: Hopkins Statistic, the Clumping Index, and Morisita's Index. Morisita's Index was the most reliable, and the Hopkins Statistic was prone to false rejection of complete spatial randomness. SYS designs with units spaced equally across and up stream provided the most accurate predictions when estimating the spatial distribution by kriging. Our research indicates that SYS designs with sampling units equally spaced both across and along the stream would be appropriate for sampling freshwater mussels even if no information about the true underlying spatial distribution of the population were available to guide the design choice. ?? 2005 by The North American Benthological Society.

  11. Using spatiotemporal statistical models to estimate animal abundance and infer ecological dynamics from survey counts

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Conn, Paul B.; Johnson, Devin S.; Ver Hoef, Jay M.; Hooten, Mevin B.; London, Joshua M.; Boveng, Peter L.

    2015-01-01

    Ecologists often fit models to survey data to estimate and explain variation in animal abundance. Such models typically require that animal density remains constant across the landscape where sampling is being conducted, a potentially problematic assumption for animals inhabiting dynamic landscapes or otherwise exhibiting considerable spatiotemporal variation in density. We review several concepts from the burgeoning literature on spatiotemporal statistical models, including the nature of the temporal structure (i.e., descriptive or dynamical) and strategies for dimension reduction to promote computational tractability. We also review several features as they specifically relate to abundance estimation, including boundary conditions, population closure, choice of link function, and extrapolation of predicted relationships to unsampled areas. We then compare a suite of novel and existing spatiotemporal hierarchical models for animal count data that permit animal density to vary over space and time, including formulations motivated by resource selection and allowing for closed populations. We gauge the relative performance (bias, precision, computational demands) of alternative spatiotemporal models when confronted with simulated and real data sets from dynamic animal populations. For the latter, we analyze spotted seal (Phoca largha) counts from an aerial survey of the Bering Sea where the quantity and quality of suitable habitat (sea ice) changed dramatically while surveys were being conducted. Simulation analyses suggested that multiple types of spatiotemporal models provide reasonable inference (low positive bias, high precision) about animal abundance, but have potential for overestimating precision. Analysis of spotted seal data indicated that several model formulations, including those based on a log-Gaussian Cox process, had a tendency to overestimate abundance. By contrast, a model that included a population closure assumption and a scale prior on total

  12. Estimating Animal Abundance in Ground Beef Batches Assayed with Molecular Markers

    PubMed Central

    Hu, Xin-Sheng; Simila, Janika; Platz, Sindey Schueler; Moore, Stephen S.; Plastow, Graham; Meghen, Ciaran N.

    2012-01-01

    Estimating animal abundance in industrial scale batches of ground meat is important for mapping meat products through the manufacturing process and for effectively tracing the finished product during a food safety recall. The processing of ground beef involves a potentially large number of animals from diverse sources in a single product batch, which produces a high heterogeneity in capture probability. In order to estimate animal abundance through DNA profiling of ground beef constituents, two parameter-based statistical models were developed for incidence data. Simulations were applied to evaluate the maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) of a joint likelihood function from multiple surveys, showing superiority in the presence of high capture heterogeneity with small sample sizes, or comparable estimation in the presence of low capture heterogeneity with a large sample size when compared to other existing models. Our model employs the full information on the pattern of the capture-recapture frequencies from multiple samples. We applied the proposed models to estimate animal abundance in six manufacturing beef batches, genotyped using 30 single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers, from a large scale beef grinding facility. Results show that between 411∼1367 animals were present in six manufacturing beef batches. These estimates are informative as a reference for improving recall processes and tracing finished meat products back to source. PMID:22479559

  13. An aerial survey method to estimate sea otter abundance

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bodkin, James L.; Udevitz, Mark S.; Garner, Gerald W.; Amstrup, Steven C.; Laake, Jeffrey L.; Manly, Bryan F.J.; McDonald, Lyman L.; Robertson, Donna G.

    1999-01-01

    Sea otters (Enhydra lutris) occur in shallow coastal habitats and can be highly visible on the sea surface. They generally rest in groups and their detection depends on factors that include sea conditions, viewing platform, observer technique and skill, distance, habitat and group size. While visible on the surface, they are difficult to see while diving and may dive in response to an approaching survey platform. We developed and tested an aerial survey method that uses intensive searches within portions of strip transects to adjust for availability and sightability biases. Correction factors are estimated independently for each survey and observer. In tests of our method using shore-based observers, we estimated detection probabilities of 0.52-0.72 in standard strip-transects and 0.96 in intensive searches. We used the survey method in Prince William Sound, Alaska to estimate a sea otter population size of 9,092 (SE = 1422). The new method represents an improvement over various aspects of previous methods, but additional development and testing will be required prior to its broad application.

  14. Camera traps and activity signs to estimate wild boar density and derive abundance indices.

    PubMed

    Massei, Giovanna; Coats, Julia; Lambert, Mark Simon; Pietravalle, Stephane; Gill, Robin; Cowan, Dave

    2018-04-01

    Populations of wild boar and feral pigs are increasing worldwide, in parallel with their significant environmental and economic impact. Reliable methods of monitoring trends and estimating abundance are needed to measure the effects of interventions on population size. The main aims of this study, carried out in five English woodlands were: (i) to compare wild boar abundance indices obtained from camera trap surveys and from activity signs; and (ii) to assess the precision of density estimates in relation to different densities of camera traps. For each woodland, we calculated a passive activity index (PAI) based on camera trap surveys, rooting activity and wild boar trails on transects, and estimated absolute densities based on camera trap surveys. PAIs obtained using different methods showed similar patterns. We found significant between-year differences in abundance of wild boar using PAIs based on camera trap surveys and on trails on transects, but not on signs of rooting on transects. The density of wild boar from camera trap surveys varied between 0.7 and 7 animals/km 2 . Increasing the density of camera traps above nine per km 2 did not increase the precision of the estimate of wild boar density. PAIs based on number of wild boar trails and on camera trap data appear to be more sensitive to changes in population size than PAIs based on signs of rooting. For wild boar densities similar to those recorded in this study, nine camera traps per km 2 are sufficient to estimate the mean density of wild boar. © 2017 Crown copyright. Pest Management Science © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2017 Crown copyright. Pest Management Science © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry.

  15. Estimating the spatial scales of landscape effects on abundance

    Treesearch

    Richard Chandler; Jeffrey Hepinstall-Cymerman

    2016-01-01

    Spatial variation in abundance is influenced by local- and landscape-level environmental variables, but modeling landscape effects is challenging because the spatial scales of the relationships are unknown. Current approaches involve buffering survey locations with polygons of various sizes and using model selection to identify the best scale. The buffering...

  16. "Capture" Me if You Can: Estimating Abundance of Dolphin Populations

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Thompson, Jessica; Curran, Mary Carla; Cox, Tara

    2016-01-01

    Animal populations are monitored over time to assess the effects of environmental disaster and disease, as well as the efficacy of laws designed to protect them. Determining the abundance of a species within a defined area is one method of monitoring a population. In "Capture" Me if You Can, middle school students will use data collected…

  17. Robust Abundance Estimation in Animal Surveys with Imperfect Detection

    EPA Science Inventory

    Surveys of animal abundance are central to the conservation and management of living natural resources. However, detection uncertainty complicates the sampling process of many species. One sampling method employed to deal with this problem is depletion (or removal) surveys in whi...

  18. Estimating parasitic sea lamprey abundance in Lake Huron from heterogenous data sources

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Young, Robert J.; Jones, Michael L.; Bence, James R.; McDonald, Rodney B.; Mullett, Katherine M.; Bergstedt, Roger A.

    2003-01-01

    The Great Lakes Fishery Commission uses time series of transformer, parasitic, and spawning population estimates to evaluate the effectiveness of its sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) control program. This study used an inverse variance weighting method to integrate Lake Huron sea lamprey population estimates derived from two estimation procedures: 1) prediction of the lake-wide spawning population from a regression model based on stream size and, 2) whole-lake mark and recapture estimates. In addition, we used a re-sampling procedure to evaluate the effect of trading off sampling effort between the regression and mark-recapture models. Population estimates derived from the regression model ranged from 132,000 to 377,000 while mark-recapture estimates of marked recently metamorphosed juveniles and parasitic sea lampreys ranged from 536,000 to 634,000 and 484,000 to 1,608,000, respectively. The precision of the estimates varied greatly among estimation procedures and years. The integrated estimate of the mark-recapture and spawner regression procedures ranged from 252,000 to 702,000 transformers. The re-sampling procedure indicated that the regression model is more sensitive to reduction in sampling effort than the mark-recapture model. Reliance on either the regression or mark-recapture model alone could produce misleading estimates of abundance of sea lampreys and the effect of the control program on sea lamprey abundance. These analyses indicate that the precision of the lakewide population estimate can be maximized by re-allocating sampling effort from marking sea lampreys to trapping additional streams.

  19. Estimating the abundance of mouse populations of known size: promises and pitfalls of new methods

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Conn, P.B.; Arthur, A.D.; Bailey, L.L.; Singleton, G.R.

    2006-01-01

    Knowledge of animal abundance is fundamental to many ecological studies. Frequently, researchers cannot determine true abundance, and so must estimate it using a method such as mark-recapture or distance sampling. Recent advances in abundance estimation allow one to model heterogeneity with individual covariates or mixture distributions and to derive multimodel abundance estimators that explicitly address uncertainty about which model parameterization best represents truth. Further, it is possible to borrow information on detection probability across several populations when data are sparse. While promising, these methods have not been evaluated using mark?recapture data from populations of known abundance, and thus far have largely been overlooked by ecologists. In this paper, we explored the utility of newly developed mark?recapture methods for estimating the abundance of 12 captive populations of wild house mice (Mus musculus). We found that mark?recapture methods employing individual covariates yielded satisfactory abundance estimates for most populations. In contrast, model sets with heterogeneity formulations consisting solely of mixture distributions did not perform well for several of the populations. We show through simulation that a higher number of trapping occasions would have been necessary to achieve good estimator performance in this case. Finally, we show that simultaneous analysis of data from low abundance populations can yield viable abundance estimates.

  20. Estimating snow leopard population abundance using photography and capture-recapture techniques

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jackson, R.M.; Roe, J.D.; Wangchuk, R.; Hunter, D.O.

    2006-01-01

    Conservation and management of snow leopards (Uncia uncia) has largely relied on anecdotal evidence and presence-absence data due to their cryptic nature and the difficult terrain they inhabit. These methods generally lack the scientific rigor necessary to accurately estimate population size and monitor trends. We evaluated the use of photography in capture-mark-recapture (CMR) techniques for estimating snow leopard population abundance and density within Hemis National Park, Ladakh, India. We placed infrared camera traps along actively used travel paths, scent-sprayed rocks, and scrape sites within 16- to 30-km2 sampling grids in successive winters during January and March 2003-2004. We used head-on, oblique, and side-view camera configurations to obtain snow leopard photographs at varying body orientations. We calculated snow leopard abundance estimates using the program CAPTURE. We obtained a total of 66 and 49 snow leopard captures resulting in 8.91 and 5.63 individuals per 100 trap-nights during 2003 and 2004, respectively. We identified snow leopards based on the distinct pelage patterns located primarily on the forelimbs, flanks, and dorsal surface of the tail. Capture probabilities ranged from 0.33 to 0.67. Density estimates ranged from 8.49 (SE = 0.22; individuals per 100 km2 in 2003 to 4.45 (SE = 0.16) in 2004. We believe the density disparity between years is attributable to different trap density and placement rather than to an actual decline in population size. Our results suggest that photographic capture-mark-recapture sampling may be a useful tool for monitoring demographic patterns. However, we believe a larger sample size would be necessary for generating a statistically robust estimate of population density and abundance based on CMR models.

  1. A robust design mark-resight abundance estimator allowing heterogeneity in resighting probabilities

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McClintock, B.T.; White, Gary C.; Burnham, K.P.

    2006-01-01

    This article introduces the beta-binomial estimator (BBE), a closed-population abundance mark-resight model combining the favorable qualities of maximum likelihood theory and the allowance of individual heterogeneity in sighting probability (p). The model may be parameterized for a robust sampling design consisting of multiple primary sampling occasions where closure need not be met between primary occasions. We applied the model to brown bear data from three study areas in Alaska and compared its performance to the joint hypergeometric estimator (JHE) and Bowden's estimator (BOWE). BBE estimates suggest heterogeneity levels were non-negligible and discourage the use of JHE for these data. Compared to JHE and BOWE, confidence intervals were considerably shorter for the AICc model-averaged BBE. To evaluate the properties of BBE relative to JHE and BOWE when sample sizes are small, simulations were performed with data from three primary occasions generated under both individual heterogeneity and temporal variation in p. All models remained consistent regardless of levels of variation in p. In terms of precision, the AICc model-averaged BBE showed advantages over JHE and BOWE when heterogeneity was present and mean sighting probabilities were similar between primary occasions. Based on the conditions examined, BBE is a reliable alternative to JHE or BOWE and provides a framework for further advances in mark-resight abundance estimation. ?? 2006 American Statistical Association and the International Biometric Society.

  2. A method for estimating abundance of mobile populations using telemetry and counts of unmarked animals

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Clement, Matthew; O'Keefe, Joy M; Walters, Brianne

    2015-01-01

    While numerous methods exist for estimating abundance when detection is imperfect, these methods may not be appropriate due to logistical difficulties or unrealistic assumptions. In particular, if highly mobile taxa are frequently absent from survey locations, methods that estimate a probability of detection conditional on presence will generate biased abundance estimates. Here, we propose a new estimator for estimating abundance of mobile populations using telemetry and counts of unmarked animals. The estimator assumes that the target population conforms to a fission-fusion grouping pattern, in which the population is divided into groups that frequently change in size and composition. If assumptions are met, it is not necessary to locate all groups in the population to estimate abundance. We derive an estimator, perform a simulation study, conduct a power analysis, and apply the method to field data. The simulation study confirmed that our estimator is asymptotically unbiased with low bias, narrow confidence intervals, and good coverage, given a modest survey effort. The power analysis provided initial guidance on survey effort. When applied to small data sets obtained by radio-tracking Indiana bats, abundance estimates were reasonable, although imprecise. The proposed method has the potential to improve abundance estimates for mobile species that have a fission-fusion social structure, such as Indiana bats, because it does not condition detection on presence at survey locations and because it avoids certain restrictive assumptions.

  3. Using paired visual and passive acoustic surveys to estimate passive acoustic detection parameters for harbor porpoise abundance estimates.

    PubMed

    Jacobson, Eiren K; Forney, Karin A; Barlow, Jay

    2017-01-01

    Passive acoustic monitoring is a promising approach for monitoring long-term trends in harbor porpoise (Phocoena phocoena) abundance. Before passive acoustic monitoring can be implemented to estimate harbor porpoise abundance, information about the detectability of harbor porpoise is needed to convert recorded numbers of echolocation clicks to harbor porpoise densities. In the present study, paired data from a grid of nine passive acoustic click detectors (C-PODs, Chelonia Ltd., United Kingdom) and three days of simultaneous aerial line-transect visual surveys were collected over a 370 km 2 study area. The focus of the study was estimating the effective detection area of the passive acoustic sensors, which was defined as the product of the sound production rate of individual animals and the area within which those sounds are detected by the passive acoustic sensors. Visually estimated porpoise densities were used as informative priors in a Bayesian model to solve for the effective detection area for individual harbor porpoises. This model-based approach resulted in a posterior distribution of the effective detection area of individual harbor porpoises consistent with previously published values. This technique is a viable alternative for estimating the effective detection area of passive acoustic sensors when other experimental approaches are not feasible.

  4. Calibrating abundance indices with population size estimators of red back salamanders (Plethodon cinereus) in a New England forest

    PubMed Central

    Ellison, Aaron M.; Jackson, Scott

    2015-01-01

    Herpetologists and conservation biologists frequently use convenient and cost-effective, but less accurate, abundance indices (e.g., number of individuals collected under artificial cover boards or during natural objects surveys) in lieu of more accurate, but costly and destructive, population size estimators to detect and monitor size, state, and trends of amphibian populations. Although there are advantages and disadvantages to each approach, reliable use of abundance indices requires that they be calibrated with accurate population estimators. Such calibrations, however, are rare. The red back salamander, Plethodon cinereus, is an ecologically useful indicator species of forest dynamics, and accurate calibration of indices of salamander abundance could increase the reliability of abundance indices used in monitoring programs. We calibrated abundance indices derived from surveys of P. cinereus under artificial cover boards or natural objects with a more accurate estimator of their population size in a New England forest. Average densities/m2 and capture probabilities of P. cinereus under natural objects or cover boards in independent, replicate sites at the Harvard Forest (Petersham, Massachusetts, USA) were similar in stands dominated by Tsuga canadensis (eastern hemlock) and deciduous hardwood species (predominantly Quercus rubra [red oak] and Acer rubrum [red maple]). The abundance index based on salamanders surveyed under natural objects was significantly associated with density estimates of P. cinereus derived from depletion (removal) surveys, but underestimated true density by 50%. In contrast, the abundance index based on cover-board surveys overestimated true density by a factor of 8 and the association between the cover-board index and the density estimates was not statistically significant. We conclude that when calibrated and used appropriately, some abundance indices may provide cost-effective and reliable measures of P. cinereus abundance that could

  5. Bayes and empirical Bayes estimators of abundance and density from spatial capture-recapture data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dorazio, Robert M.

    2013-01-01

    In capture-recapture and mark-resight surveys, movements of individuals both within and between sampling periods can alter the susceptibility of individuals to detection over the region of sampling. In these circumstances spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR) models, which incorporate the observed locations of individuals, allow population density and abundance to be estimated while accounting for differences in detectability of individuals. In this paper I propose two Bayesian SECR models, one for the analysis of recaptures observed in trapping arrays and another for the analysis of recaptures observed in area searches. In formulating these models I used distinct submodels to specify the distribution of individual home-range centers and the observable recaptures associated with these individuals. This separation of ecological and observational processes allowed me to derive a formal connection between Bayes and empirical Bayes estimators of population abundance that has not been established previously. I showed that this connection applies to every Poisson point-process model of SECR data and provides theoretical support for a previously proposed estimator of abundance based on recaptures in trapping arrays. To illustrate results of both classical and Bayesian methods of analysis, I compared Bayes and empirical Bayes esimates of abundance and density using recaptures from simulated and real populations of animals. Real populations included two iconic datasets: recaptures of tigers detected in camera-trap surveys and recaptures of lizards detected in area-search surveys. In the datasets I analyzed, classical and Bayesian methods provided similar – and often identical – inferences, which is not surprising given the sample sizes and the noninformative priors used in the analyses.

  6. Bayes and empirical Bayes estimators of abundance and density from spatial capture-recapture data.

    PubMed

    Dorazio, Robert M

    2013-01-01

    In capture-recapture and mark-resight surveys, movements of individuals both within and between sampling periods can alter the susceptibility of individuals to detection over the region of sampling. In these circumstances spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR) models, which incorporate the observed locations of individuals, allow population density and abundance to be estimated while accounting for differences in detectability of individuals. In this paper I propose two Bayesian SECR models, one for the analysis of recaptures observed in trapping arrays and another for the analysis of recaptures observed in area searches. In formulating these models I used distinct submodels to specify the distribution of individual home-range centers and the observable recaptures associated with these individuals. This separation of ecological and observational processes allowed me to derive a formal connection between Bayes and empirical Bayes estimators of population abundance that has not been established previously. I showed that this connection applies to every Poisson point-process model of SECR data and provides theoretical support for a previously proposed estimator of abundance based on recaptures in trapping arrays. To illustrate results of both classical and Bayesian methods of analysis, I compared Bayes and empirical Bayes esimates of abundance and density using recaptures from simulated and real populations of animals. Real populations included two iconic datasets: recaptures of tigers detected in camera-trap surveys and recaptures of lizards detected in area-search surveys. In the datasets I analyzed, classical and Bayesian methods provided similar - and often identical - inferences, which is not surprising given the sample sizes and the noninformative priors used in the analyses.

  7. Hankin and Reeves' approach to estimating fish abundance in small streams: limitations and alternatives

    Treesearch

    William L. Thompson

    2003-01-01

    Hankin and Reeves' (1988) approach to estimating fish abundance in small streams has been applied in stream fish studies across North America. However, their population estimator relies on two key assumptions: (1) removal estimates are equal to the true numbers of fish, and (2) removal estimates are highly correlated with snorkel counts within a subset of sampled...

  8. Validation of abundance estimates from mark–recapture and removal techniques for rainbow trout captured by electrofishing in small streams

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rosenberger, Amanda E.; Dunham, Jason B.

    2005-01-01

    Estimation of fish abundance in streams using the removal model or the Lincoln - Peterson mark - recapture model is a common practice in fisheries. These models produce misleading results if their assumptions are violated. We evaluated the assumptions of these two models via electrofishing of rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss in central Idaho streams. For one-, two-, three-, and four-pass sampling effort in closed sites, we evaluated the influences of fish size and habitat characteristics on sampling efficiency and the accuracy of removal abundance estimates. We also examined the use of models to generate unbiased estimates of fish abundance through adjustment of total catch or biased removal estimates. Our results suggested that the assumptions of the mark - recapture model were satisfied and that abundance estimates based on this approach were unbiased. In contrast, the removal model assumptions were not met. Decreasing sampling efficiencies over removal passes resulted in underestimated population sizes and overestimates of sampling efficiency. This bias decreased, but was not eliminated, with increased sampling effort. Biased removal estimates based on different levels of effort were highly correlated with each other but were less correlated with unbiased mark - recapture estimates. Stream size decreased sampling efficiency, and stream size and instream wood increased the negative bias of removal estimates. We found that reliable estimates of population abundance could be obtained from models of sampling efficiency for different levels of effort. Validation of abundance estimates requires extra attention to routine sampling considerations but can help fisheries biologists avoid pitfalls associated with biased data and facilitate standardized comparisons among studies that employ different sampling methods.

  9. Chapter 31: Abundance and Distribution of Marbled Murrelets in Oregon and Washington Based on Aerial Surveys

    Treesearch

    Daniel H. Varoujean II; Wendy A. Williams

    1995-01-01

    To determine the abundance and distribution of Marbled Murrelets, aerial surveys of the Oregon coast, Washington outer coast, and shores of the western Strait of Juan de Fuca were conducted in August/September 1993. Based on these marine surveys, abundance estimates are established for Oregon (6,400-6,800 birds) and the waters surveyed in Washington (3,400-3,600 birds...

  10. Using counts to simultaneously estimate abundance and detection probabilities in a salamander community

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dodd, C.K.; Dorazio, R.M.

    2004-01-01

    A critical variable in both ecological and conservation field studies is determining how many individuals of a species are present within a defined sampling area. Labor intensive techniques such as capture-mark-recapture and removal sampling may provide estimates of abundance, but there are many logistical constraints to their widespread application. Many studies on terrestrial and aquatic salamanders use counts as an index of abundance, assuming that detection remains constant while sampling. If this constancy is violated, determination of detection probabilities is critical to the accurate estimation of abundance. Recently, a model was developed that provides a statistical approach that allows abundance and detection to be estimated simultaneously from spatially and temporally replicated counts. We adapted this model to estimate these parameters for salamanders sampled over a six vear period in area-constrained plots in Great Smoky Mountains National Park. Estimates of salamander abundance varied among years, but annual changes in abundance did not vary uniformly among species. Except for one species, abundance estimates were not correlated with site covariates (elevation/soil and water pH, conductivity, air and water temperature). The uncertainty in the estimates was so large as to make correlations ineffectual in predicting which covariates might influence abundance. Detection probabilities also varied among species and sometimes among years for the six species examined. We found such a high degree of variation in our counts and in estimates of detection among species, sites, and years as to cast doubt upon the appropriateness of using count data to monitor population trends using a small number of area-constrained survey plots. Still, the model provided reasonable estimates of abundance that could make it useful in estimating population size from count surveys.

  11. Goals and strategies for estimating trends in landbird abundance

    Treesearch

    Jonathan Bart; Kenneth P. Burnham; Erica H. Dunn; Charles M. Francis; C. John Ralph

    2004-01-01

    Reliable estimates of trends in population size are critical to effective management of landbirds. We propose a standard for considering that landbird populations are adequately monitored: 80% power to detect a 50% decline occurring within 20 years, using a 2-tailed test and a significance level of 0.10, and incorporating effects of potential bias. Our standard also...

  12. Estimating abundance of adult striped bass in reservoirs using mobile hydroacoustics

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hightower, Joseph E.; Taylor, J. Christopher; Degan, Donald J.

    2013-01-01

    Hydroacoustic surveys have proven valuable for estimating reservoir forage fish abundance but are more challenging for adult predators such as striped bass Morone saxatilis. Difficulties in assessing striped bass in reservoirs include their low density and the inability to distinguish species with hydroacoustic data alone. Despite these difficulties, mobile hydroacoustic surveys have potential to provide useful data for management because of the large sample volume compared to traditional methods such as gill netting and the ability to target specific areas where striped bass are aggregated. Hydroacoustic estimates of reservoir striped bass have been made using mobile surveys, with data analysis using a threshold for target strength in order to focus on striped bass-sized targets, and auxiliary sampling with nets to obtain species composition. We provide recommendations regarding survey design, based in part on simulations that provide insight on the level of effort that would be required to achieve reasonable estimates of abundance. Future surveys may be able to incorporate telemetry or other sonar techniques such as side-scan or multibeam in order to focus survey efforts on productive habitats (within lake and vertically). However, species apportionment will likely remain the main source of error, and we see no hydroacoustic system on the horizon that will identify fish by species at the spatial and temporal scale required for most reservoir surveys. In situations where species composition can be reliably assessed using traditional gears, abundance estimates from hydroacoustic methods should be useful to fishery managers interested in developing harvest regulations, assessing survival of stocked juveniles, identifying seasonal aggregations, and examining predator–prey balance.

  13. Mark-resight abundance estimation under incomplete identification of marked individuals

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McClintock, Brett T.; Hill, Jason M.; Fritz, Lowell; Chumbley, Kathryn; Luxa, Katie; Diefenbach, Duane R.

    2014-01-01

    Often less expensive and less invasive than conventional mark–recapture, so-called 'mark-resight' methods are popular in the estimation of population abundance. These methods are most often applied when a subset of the population of interest is marked (naturally or artificially), and non-invasive sighting data can be simultaneously collected for both marked and unmarked individuals. However, it can often be difficult to identify marked individuals with certainty during resighting surveys, and incomplete identification of marked individuals is potentially a major source of bias in mark-resight abundance estimators. Previously proposed solutions are ad hoc and will tend to underperform unless marked individual identification rates are relatively high (>90%) or individual sighting heterogeneity is negligible.Based on a complete data likelihood, we present an approach that properly accounts for uncertainty in marked individual detection histories when incomplete identifications occur. The models allow for individual heterogeneity in detection, sampling with (e.g. Poisson) or without (e.g. Bernoulli) replacement, and an unknown number of marked individuals. Using a custom Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to facilitate Bayesian inference, we demonstrate these models using two example data sets and investigate their properties via simulation experiments.We estimate abundance for grassland sparrow populations in Pennsylvania, USA when sampling was conducted with replacement and the number of marked individuals was either known or unknown. To increase marked individual identification probabilities, extensive territory mapping was used to assign incomplete identifications to individuals based on location. Despite marked individual identification probabilities as low as 67% in the absence of this territorial mapping procedure, we generally found little return (or need) for this time-consuming investment when using our proposed approach. We also estimate rookery abundance

  14. Hydroacoustic estimates of abundance and spatial distribution of pelagic prey fishes in western Lake Superior

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mason, Doran M.; Johnson, Timothy B.; Harvey, Chris J.; Kitchell, James F.; Schram, Stephen T.; Bronte, Charles R.; Hoff, Michael H.; Lozano, Stephen J.; Trebitz, Anett S.; Schreiner, Donald R.; Lamon, E. Conrad; Hrabik, Thomas R.

    2005-01-01

    Lake herring (Coregonus artedi) and rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax) are a valuable prey resource for the recovering lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) in Lake Superior. However, prey biomass may be insufficient to support the current predator demand. In August 1997, we assessed the abundance and spatial distribution of pelagic coregonines and rainbow smelt in western Lake Superior by combining a 120 kHz split beam acoustics system with midwater trawls. Coregonines comprised the majority of the midwater trawl catches and the length distributions for trawl caught fish coincided with estimated sizes of acoustic targets. Overall mean pelagic prey fish biomass was 15.56 kg ha−1 with the greatest fish biomass occurring in the Apostle Islands region (27.98 kg ha−1), followed by the Duluth Minnesota region (20.22 kg ha−1), and with the lowest biomass occurring in the open waters of western Lake Superior (9.46 kg ha−1). Biomass estimates from hydroacoustics were typically 2–134 times greater than estimates derived from spring bottom trawl surveys. Prey fish biomass for Lake Superior is about order of magnitude less than acoustic estimates for Lakes Michigan and Ontario. Discrepancies observed between bioenergetics-based estimates of predator consumption of coregonines and earlier coregonine biomass estimates may be accounted for by our hydroacoustic estimates.

  15. Estimating Lion Abundance using N-mixture Models for Social Species.

    PubMed

    Belant, Jerrold L; Bled, Florent; Wilton, Clay M; Fyumagwa, Robert; Mwampeta, Stanslaus B; Beyer, Dean E

    2016-10-27

    Declining populations of large carnivores worldwide, and the complexities of managing human-carnivore conflicts, require accurate population estimates of large carnivores to promote their long-term persistence through well-informed management We used N-mixture models to estimate lion (Panthera leo) abundance from call-in and track surveys in southeastern Serengeti National Park, Tanzania. Because of potential habituation to broadcasted calls and social behavior, we developed a hierarchical observation process within the N-mixture model conditioning lion detectability on their group response to call-ins and individual detection probabilities. We estimated 270 lions (95% credible interval = 170-551) using call-ins but were unable to estimate lion abundance from track data. We found a weak negative relationship between predicted track density and predicted lion abundance from the call-in surveys. Luminosity was negatively correlated with individual detection probability during call-in surveys. Lion abundance and track density were influenced by landcover, but direction of the corresponding effects were undetermined. N-mixture models allowed us to incorporate multiple parameters (e.g., landcover, luminosity, observer effect) influencing lion abundance and probability of detection directly into abundance estimates. We suggest that N-mixture models employing a hierarchical observation process can be used to estimate abundance of other social, herding, and grouping species.

  16. Estimating Lion Abundance using N-mixture Models for Social Species

    PubMed Central

    Belant, Jerrold L.; Bled, Florent; Wilton, Clay M.; Fyumagwa, Robert; Mwampeta, Stanslaus B.; Beyer, Dean E.

    2016-01-01

    Declining populations of large carnivores worldwide, and the complexities of managing human-carnivore conflicts, require accurate population estimates of large carnivores to promote their long-term persistence through well-informed management We used N-mixture models to estimate lion (Panthera leo) abundance from call-in and track surveys in southeastern Serengeti National Park, Tanzania. Because of potential habituation to broadcasted calls and social behavior, we developed a hierarchical observation process within the N-mixture model conditioning lion detectability on their group response to call-ins and individual detection probabilities. We estimated 270 lions (95% credible interval = 170–551) using call-ins but were unable to estimate lion abundance from track data. We found a weak negative relationship between predicted track density and predicted lion abundance from the call-in surveys. Luminosity was negatively correlated with individual detection probability during call-in surveys. Lion abundance and track density were influenced by landcover, but direction of the corresponding effects were undetermined. N-mixture models allowed us to incorporate multiple parameters (e.g., landcover, luminosity, observer effect) influencing lion abundance and probability of detection directly into abundance estimates. We suggest that N-mixture models employing a hierarchical observation process can be used to estimate abundance of other social, herding, and grouping species. PMID:27786283

  17. Multiple marker abundance profiling: combining selected reaction monitoring and data-dependent acquisition for rapid estimation of organelle abundance in subcellular samples

    SciTech Connect

    Hooper, Cornelia M.; Stevens, Tim J.; Saukkonen, Anna

    Measuring changes in protein or organelle abundance in the cell is an essential, but challenging aspect of cell biology. Frequently-used methods for determining organelle abundance typically rely on detection of a very few marker proteins, so are unsatisfactory. In silico estimates of protein abundances from publicly available protein spectra can provide useful standard abundance values but contain only data from tissue proteomes, and are not coupled to organelle localization data. A new protein abundance score, the normalized protein abundance scale (NPAS), expands on the number of scored proteins and the scoring accuracy of lower-abundance proteins in Arabidopsis. NPAS was combinedmore » with subcellular protein localization data, facilitating quantitative estimations of organelle abundance during routine experimental procedures. A suite of targeted proteomics markers for subcellular compartment markers was developed, enabling independent verification of in silico estimates for relative organelle abundance. Estimation of relative organelle abundance was found to be reproducible and consistent over a range of tissues and growth conditions. In silico abundance estimations and localization data have been combined into an online tool, multiple marker abundance profiling, available in the SUBA4 toolbox (http://suba.live).« less

  18. Multiple marker abundance profiling: combining selected reaction monitoring and data-dependent acquisition for rapid estimation of organelle abundance in subcellular samples

    DOE PAGES

    Hooper, Cornelia M.; Stevens, Tim J.; Saukkonen, Anna; ...

    2017-10-12

    Measuring changes in protein or organelle abundance in the cell is an essential, but challenging aspect of cell biology. Frequently-used methods for determining organelle abundance typically rely on detection of a very few marker proteins, so are unsatisfactory. In silico estimates of protein abundances from publicly available protein spectra can provide useful standard abundance values but contain only data from tissue proteomes, and are not coupled to organelle localization data. A new protein abundance score, the normalized protein abundance scale (NPAS), expands on the number of scored proteins and the scoring accuracy of lower-abundance proteins in Arabidopsis. NPAS was combinedmore » with subcellular protein localization data, facilitating quantitative estimations of organelle abundance during routine experimental procedures. A suite of targeted proteomics markers for subcellular compartment markers was developed, enabling independent verification of in silico estimates for relative organelle abundance. Estimation of relative organelle abundance was found to be reproducible and consistent over a range of tissues and growth conditions. In silico abundance estimations and localization data have been combined into an online tool, multiple marker abundance profiling, available in the SUBA4 toolbox (http://suba.live).« less

  19. Dynamic N -occupancy models: estimating demographic rates and local abundance from detection-nondetection data

    Treesearch

    Sam Rossman; Charles B. Yackulic; Sarah P. Saunders; Janice Reid; Ray Davis; Elise F. Zipkin

    2016-01-01

    Occupancy modeling is a widely used analytical technique for assessing species distributions and range dynamics. However, occupancy analyses frequently ignore variation in abundance of occupied sites, even though site abundances affect many of the parameters being estimated (e.g., extinction, colonization, detection probability). We introduce a new model (“dynamic

  20. Google Haul Out: Earth Observation Imagery and Digital Aerial Surveys in Coastal Wildlife Management and Abundance Estimation

    PubMed Central

    Moxley, Jerry H.; Bogomolni, Andrea; Hammill, Mike O.; Moore, Kathleen M. T.; Polito, Michael J.; Sette, Lisa; Sharp, W. Brian; Waring, Gordon T.; Gilbert, James R.; Halpin, Patrick N.; Johnston, David W.

    2017-01-01

    Abstract As the sampling frequency and resolution of Earth observation imagery increase, there are growing opportunities for novel applications in population monitoring. New methods are required to apply established analytical approaches to data collected from new observation platforms (e.g., satellites and unmanned aerial vehicles). Here, we present a method that estimates regional seasonal abundances for an understudied and growing population of gray seals (Halichoerus grypus) in southeastern Massachusetts, using opportunistic observations in Google Earth imagery. Abundance estimates are derived from digital aerial survey counts by adapting established correction-based analyses with telemetry behavioral observation to quantify survey biases. The result is a first regional understanding of gray seal abundance in the northeast US through opportunistic Earth observation imagery and repurposed animal telemetry data. As species observation data from Earth observation imagery become more ubiquitous, such methods provide a robust, adaptable, and cost-effective solution to monitoring animal colonies and understanding species abundances. PMID:29599542

  1. Google Haul Out: Earth Observation Imagery and Digital Aerial Surveys in Coastal Wildlife Management and Abundance Estimation.

    PubMed

    Moxley, Jerry H; Bogomolni, Andrea; Hammill, Mike O; Moore, Kathleen M T; Polito, Michael J; Sette, Lisa; Sharp, W Brian; Waring, Gordon T; Gilbert, James R; Halpin, Patrick N; Johnston, David W

    2017-08-01

    As the sampling frequency and resolution of Earth observation imagery increase, there are growing opportunities for novel applications in population monitoring. New methods are required to apply established analytical approaches to data collected from new observation platforms (e.g., satellites and unmanned aerial vehicles). Here, we present a method that estimates regional seasonal abundances for an understudied and growing population of gray seals (Halichoerus grypus) in southeastern Massachusetts, using opportunistic observations in Google Earth imagery. Abundance estimates are derived from digital aerial survey counts by adapting established correction-based analyses with telemetry behavioral observation to quantify survey biases. The result is a first regional understanding of gray seal abundance in the northeast US through opportunistic Earth observation imagery and repurposed animal telemetry data. As species observation data from Earth observation imagery become more ubiquitous, such methods provide a robust, adaptable, and cost-effective solution to monitoring animal colonies and understanding species abundances.

  2. Horvitz-Thompson survey sample methods for estimating large-scale animal abundance

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Samuel, M.D.; Garton, E.O.

    1994-01-01

    Large-scale surveys to estimate animal abundance can be useful for monitoring population status and trends, for measuring responses to management or environmental alterations, and for testing ecological hypotheses about abundance. However, large-scale surveys may be expensive and logistically complex. To ensure resources are not wasted on unattainable targets, the goals and uses of each survey should be specified carefully and alternative methods for addressing these objectives always should be considered. During survey design, the impoflance of each survey error component (spatial design, propofiion of detected animals, precision in detection) should be considered carefully to produce a complete statistically based survey. Failure to address these three survey components may produce population estimates that are inaccurate (biased low), have unrealistic precision (too precise) and do not satisfactorily meet the survey objectives. Optimum survey design requires trade-offs in these sources of error relative to the costs of sampling plots and detecting animals on plots, considerations that are specific to the spatial logistics and survey methods. The Horvitz-Thompson estimators provide a comprehensive framework for considering all three survey components during the design and analysis of large-scale wildlife surveys. Problems of spatial and temporal (especially survey to survey) heterogeneity in detection probabilities have received little consideration, but failure to account for heterogeneity produces biased population estimates. The goal of producing unbiased population estimates is in conflict with the increased variation from heterogeneous detection in the population estimate. One solution to this conflict is to use an MSE-based approach to achieve a balance between bias reduction and increased variation. Further research is needed to develop methods that address spatial heterogeneity in detection, evaluate the effects of temporal heterogeneity on survey

  3. ELM: AN ALGORITHM TO ESTIMATE THE ALPHA ABUNDANCE FROM LOW-RESOLUTION SPECTRA

    SciTech Connect

    Bu, Yude; Zhao, Gang; Kumar, Yerra Bharat

    We have investigated a novel methodology using the extreme learning machine (ELM) algorithm to determine the α abundance of stars. Applying two methods based on the ELM algorithm—ELM+spectra and ELM+Lick indices—to the stellar spectra from the ELODIE database, we measured the α abundance with a precision better than 0.065 dex. By applying these two methods to the spectra with different signal-to-noise ratios (S/Ns) and different resolutions, we found that ELM+spectra is more robust against degraded resolution and ELM+Lick indices is more robust against variation in S/N. To further validate the performance of ELM, we applied ELM+spectra and ELM+Lick indices to SDSSmore » spectra and estimated α abundances with a precision around 0.10 dex, which is comparable to the results given by the SEGUE Stellar Parameter Pipeline. We further applied ELM to the spectra of stars in Galactic globular clusters (M15, M13, M71) and open clusters (NGC 2420, M67, NGC 6791), and results show good agreement with previous studies (within 1σ). A comparison of the ELM with other widely used methods including support vector machine, Gaussian process regression, artificial neural networks, and linear least-squares regression shows that ELM is efficient with computational resources and more accurate than other methods.« less

  4. ELM: an Algorithm to Estimate the Alpha Abundance from Low-resolution Spectra

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bu, Yude; Zhao, Gang; Pan, Jingchang; Bharat Kumar, Yerra

    2016-01-01

    We have investigated a novel methodology using the extreme learning machine (ELM) algorithm to determine the α abundance of stars. Applying two methods based on the ELM algorithm—ELM+spectra and ELM+Lick indices—to the stellar spectra from the ELODIE database, we measured the α abundance with a precision better than 0.065 dex. By applying these two methods to the spectra with different signal-to-noise ratios (S/Ns) and different resolutions, we found that ELM+spectra is more robust against degraded resolution and ELM+Lick indices is more robust against variation in S/N. To further validate the performance of ELM, we applied ELM+spectra and ELM+Lick indices to SDSS spectra and estimated α abundances with a precision around 0.10 dex, which is comparable to the results given by the SEGUE Stellar Parameter Pipeline. We further applied ELM to the spectra of stars in Galactic globular clusters (M15, M13, M71) and open clusters (NGC 2420, M67, NGC 6791), and results show good agreement with previous studies (within 1σ). A comparison of the ELM with other widely used methods including support vector machine, Gaussian process regression, artificial neural networks, and linear least-squares regression shows that ELM is efficient with computational resources and more accurate than other methods.

  5. Evaluation of methods to estimate lake herring spawner abundance in Lake Superior

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Yule, D.L.; Stockwell, J.D.; Cholwek, G.A.; Evrard, L.M.; Schram, S.; Seider, M.; Symbal, M.

    2006-01-01

    Historically, commercial fishers harvested Lake Superior lake herring Coregonus artedi for their flesh, but recently operators have targeted lake herring for roe. Because no surveys have estimated spawning female abundance, direct estimates of fishing mortality are lacking. The primary objective of this study was to determine the feasibility of using acoustic techniques in combination with midwater trawling to estimate spawning female lake herring densities in a Lake Superior statistical grid (i.e., a 10′ latitude × 10′ longitude area over which annual commercial harvest statistics are compiled). Midwater trawling showed that mature female lake herring were largely pelagic during the night in late November, accounting for 94.5% of all fish caught exceeding 250 mm total length. When calculating acoustic estimates of mature female lake herring, we excluded backscattering from smaller pelagic fishes like immature lake herring and rainbow smelt Osmerus mordax by applying an empirically derived threshold of −35.6 dB. We estimated the average density of mature females in statistical grid 1409 at 13.3 fish/ha and the total number of spawning females at 227,600 (95% confidence interval = 172,500–282,700). Using information on mature female densities, size structure, and fecundity, we estimate that females deposited 3.027 billion (109) eggs in grid 1409 (95% confidence interval = 2.356–3.778 billion). The relative estimation error of the mature female density estimate derived using a geostatistical model—based approach was low (12.3%), suggesting that the employed method was robust. Fishing mortality rates of all mature females and their eggs were estimated at 2.3% and 3.8%, respectively. The techniques described for enumerating spawning female lake herring could be used to develop a more accurate stock–recruitment model for Lake Superior lake herring.

  6. Efficient estimation of abundance for patchily distributed populations via two-phase, adaptive sampling.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Conroy, M.J.; Runge, J.P.; Barker, R.J.; Schofield, M.R.; Fonnesbeck, C.J.

    2008-01-01

    Many organisms are patchily distributed, with some patches occupied at high density, others at lower densities, and others not occupied. Estimation of overall abundance can be difficult and is inefficient via intensive approaches such as capture-mark-recapture (CMR) or distance sampling. We propose a two-phase sampling scheme and model in a Bayesian framework to estimate abundance for patchily distributed populations. In the first phase, occupancy is estimated by binomial detection samples taken on all selected sites, where selection may be of all sites available, or a random sample of sites. Detection can be by visual surveys, detection of sign, physical captures, or other approach. At the second phase, if a detection threshold is achieved, CMR or other intensive sampling is conducted via standard procedures (grids or webs) to estimate abundance. Detection and CMR data are then used in a joint likelihood to model probability of detection in the occupancy sample via an abundance-detection model. CMR modeling is used to estimate abundance for the abundance-detection relationship, which in turn is used to predict abundance at the remaining sites, where only detection data are collected. We present a full Bayesian modeling treatment of this problem, in which posterior inference on abundance and other parameters (detection, capture probability) is obtained under a variety of assumptions about spatial and individual sources of heterogeneity. We apply the approach to abundance estimation for two species of voles (Microtus spp.) in Montana, USA. We also use a simulation study to evaluate the frequentist properties of our procedure given known patterns in abundance and detection among sites as well as design criteria. For most population characteristics and designs considered, bias and mean-square error (MSE) were low, and coverage of true parameter values by Bayesian credibility intervals was near nominal. Our two-phase, adaptive approach allows efficient estimation of

  7. Consideraciones para la estimacion de abundancia de poblaciones de mamiferos. [Considerations for the estimation of abundance of mammal populations.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Walker, R.S.; Novare, A.J.; Nichols, J.D.

    2000-01-01

    Estimation of abundance of mammal populations is essential for monitoring programs and for many ecological investigations. The first step for any study of variation in mammal abundance over space or time is to define the objectives of the study and how and why abundance data are to be used. The data used to estimate abundance are count statistics in the form of counts of animals or their signs. There are two major sources of uncertainty that must be considered in the design of the study: spatial variation and the relationship between abundance and the count statistic. Spatial variation in the distribution of animals or signs may be taken into account with appropriate spatial sampling. Count statistics may be viewed as random variables, with the expected value of the count statistic equal to the true abundance of the population multiplied by a coefficient p. With direct counts, p represents the probability of detection or capture of individuals, and with indirect counts it represents the rate of production of the signs as well as their probability of detection. Comparisons of abundance using count statistics from different times or places assume that the p are the same for all times or places being compared (p= pi). In spite of considerable evidence that this assumption rarely holds true, it is commonly made in studies of mammal abundance, as when the minimum number alive or indices based on sign counts are used to compare abundance in different habitats or times. Alternatives to relying on this assumption are to calibrate the index used by testing the assumption of p= pi, or to incorporate the estimation of p into the study design.

  8. Estimating sturgeon abundance in the Carolinas using side-scan sonar

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Flowers, H. Jared; Hightower, Joseph E.

    2015-01-01

    Sturgeons (Acipenseridae) are one of the most threatened taxa worldwide, including species in North Carolina and South Carolina. Populations of Atlantic Sturgeon Acipenser oxyrinchus in the Carolinas have been significantly reduced from historical levels by a combination of intense fishing and habitat loss. There is a need for estimates of current abundance, to describe status, and for estimates of historical abundance in order to provide realistic recovery goals. In this study we used N-mixture and distance models with data acquired from side-scan sonar surveys to estimate abundance of sturgeon in six major sturgeon rivers in North Carolina and South Carolina. Estimated abundances of sturgeon greater than 1 m TL in the Carolina distinct population segment (DPS) were 2,031 using the count model and 1,912 via the distance model. The Pee Dee River had the highest overall abundance of any river at 1,944 (count model) or 1,823 (distance model). These estimates do not account for sturgeon less than 1 m TL or occurring in riverine reaches not surveyed or in marine waters. Comparing the two models, the N-mixture model produced similar estimates using less data than the distance model with only a slight reduction of estimated precision.

  9. Accuracy or precision: Implications of sample design and methodology on abundance estimation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kowalewski, Lucas K.; Chizinski, Christopher J.; Powell, Larkin A.; Pope, Kevin L.; Pegg, Mark A.

    2015-01-01

    Sampling by spatially replicated counts (point-count) is an increasingly popular method of estimating population size of organisms. Challenges exist when sampling by point-count method, and it is often impractical to sample entire area of interest and impossible to detect every individual present. Ecologists encounter logistical limitations that force them to sample either few large-sample units or many small sample-units, introducing biases to sample counts. We generated a computer environment and simulated sampling scenarios to test the role of number of samples, sample unit area, number of organisms, and distribution of organisms in the estimation of population sizes using N-mixture models. Many sample units of small area provided estimates that were consistently closer to true abundance than sample scenarios with few sample units of large area. However, sample scenarios with few sample units of large area provided more precise abundance estimates than abundance estimates derived from sample scenarios with many sample units of small area. It is important to consider accuracy and precision of abundance estimates during the sample design process with study goals and objectives fully recognized, although and with consequence, consideration of accuracy and precision of abundance estimates is often an afterthought that occurs during the data analysis process.

  10. Filling a void: abundance estimation of North American populations of arctic geese using hunter recoveries

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Alisauskas, R.T.; Drake, K.L.; Nichols, J.D.; Thomson, David L.; Cooch, Evan G.; Conroy, Michael J.

    2009-01-01

    We consider use of recoveries of marked birds harvested by hunters, in conjunction with continental harvest estimates, for drawing inferences about continental abundance of a select number of goose species. We review assumptions of this method, a version of the Lincoln?Petersen approach, and consider its utility as a tool for making decisions about harvest management in comparison to current sources of information. Finally, we compare such estimates with existing count data, photographic estimates, or other abundance estimates. In most cases, Lincoln estimates are far higher than abundances assumed or perhaps accepted by many waterfowl biologists and managers. Nevertheless, depending on the geographic scope of inference, we suggest that this approach for abundance estimation of arctic geese may have usefulness for retrospective purposes or to assist with harvest management decisions for some species. Lincoln?s estimates may be as close or closer to truth than count, index, or photo data, and can be used with marking efforts currently in place for estimation of survival and harvest rates. Although there are bias issues associated with estimates of both harvest and harvest rate, some of the latter can be addressed with proper allocation of marks to spatially structured populations if subpopulations show heterogeneity in harvest rates.

  11. Refined Estimates of Carbon Abundances for Carbon-Enhanced Metal-Poor Stars

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rossi, S.; Placco, V. M.; Beers, T. C.; Marsteller, B.; Kennedy, C. R.; Sivarani, T.; Masseron, T.; Plez, B.

    2008-03-01

    We present results from a refined set of procedures for estimation of the metallicities ([Fe/H]) and carbon abundance ratios ([C/Fe]) based on a much larger sample of calibration objects (on the order of 500 stars) then were available to Rossi et al. (2005), due to a dramatic increase in the number of stars with measurements obtained from high-resolution analyses in the past few years. We compare results obtained from a new calibration of the KP and GP indices with that obtained from a custom set of spectral synthesis based on MOOG. In cases where the GP index approaches saturation, it is clear that only spectral synthesis achieve reliable results.

  12. When are genetic methods useful for estimating contemporary abundance and detecting population trends?

    Treesearch

    David A. Tallmon; Dave Gregovich; Robin S. Waples; C. Scott Baker; Jennifer Jackson; Barbara L. Taylor; Eric Archer; Karen K. Martien; Fred W. Allendorf; Michael K. Schwartz

    2010-01-01

    The utility of microsatellite markers for inferring population size and trend has not been rigorously examined, even though these markers are commonly used to monitor the demography of natural populations. We assessed the ability of a linkage disequilibrium estimator of effective population size (Ne) and a simple capture-recapture estimator of abundance (N) to quantify...

  13. A comparison of abundance estimates from extended batch-marking and Jolly–Seber-type experiments

    PubMed Central

    Cowen, Laura L E; Besbeas, Panagiotis; Morgan, Byron J T; Schwarz, Carl J

    2014-01-01

    Little attention has been paid to the use of multi-sample batch-marking studies, as it is generally assumed that an individual's capture history is necessary for fully efficient estimates. However, recently, Huggins et al. (2010) present a pseudo-likelihood for a multi-sample batch-marking study where they used estimating equations to solve for survival and capture probabilities and then derived abundance estimates using a Horvitz–Thompson-type estimator. We have developed and maximized the likelihood for batch-marking studies. We use data simulated from a Jolly–Seber-type study and convert this to what would have been obtained from an extended batch-marking study. We compare our abundance estimates obtained from the Crosbie–Manly–Arnason–Schwarz (CMAS) model with those of the extended batch-marking model to determine the efficiency of collecting and analyzing batch-marking data. We found that estimates of abundance were similar for all three estimators: CMAS, Huggins, and our likelihood. Gains are made when using unique identifiers and employing the CMAS model in terms of precision; however, the likelihood typically had lower mean square error than the pseudo-likelihood method of Huggins et al. (2010). When faced with designing a batch-marking study, researchers can be confident in obtaining unbiased abundance estimators. Furthermore, they can design studies in order to reduce mean square error by manipulating capture probabilities and sample size. PMID:24558576

  14. An integrated data model to estimate spatiotemporal occupancy, abundance, and colonization dynamics

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Williams, Perry J.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Womble, Jamie N.; Esslinger, George G.; Bower, Michael R.; Hefley, Trevor J.

    2017-01-01

    Ecological invasions and colonizations occur dynamically through space and time. Estimating the distribution and abundance of colonizing species is critical for efficient management or conservation. We describe a statistical framework for simultaneously estimating spatiotemporal occupancy and abundance dynamics of a colonizing species. Our method accounts for several issues that are common when modeling spatiotemporal ecological data including multiple levels of detection probability, multiple data sources, and computational limitations that occur when making fine-scale inference over a large spatiotemporal domain. We apply the model to estimate the colonization dynamics of sea otters (Enhydra lutris) in Glacier Bay, in southeastern Alaska.

  15. An integrated data model to estimate spatiotemporal occupancy, abundance, and colonization dynamics.

    PubMed

    Williams, Perry J; Hooten, Mevin B; Womble, Jamie N; Esslinger, George G; Bower, Michael R; Hefley, Trevor J

    2017-02-01

    Ecological invasions and colonizations occur dynamically through space and time. Estimating the distribution and abundance of colonizing species is critical for efficient management or conservation. We describe a statistical framework for simultaneously estimating spatiotemporal occupancy and abundance dynamics of a colonizing species. Our method accounts for several issues that are common when modeling spatiotemporal ecological data including multiple levels of detection probability, multiple data sources, and computational limitations that occur when making fine-scale inference over a large spatiotemporal domain. We apply the model to estimate the colonization dynamics of sea otters (Enhydra lutris) in Glacier Bay, in southeastern Alaska. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

  16. Accounting for imperfect detection of groups and individuals when estimating abundance.

    PubMed

    Clement, Matthew J; Converse, Sarah J; Royle, J Andrew

    2017-09-01

    If animals are independently detected during surveys, many methods exist for estimating animal abundance despite detection probabilities <1. Common estimators include double-observer models, distance sampling models and combined double-observer and distance sampling models (known as mark-recapture-distance-sampling models; MRDS). When animals reside in groups, however, the assumption of independent detection is violated. In this case, the standard approach is to account for imperfect detection of groups, while assuming that individuals within groups are detected perfectly. However, this assumption is often unsupported. We introduce an abundance estimator for grouped animals when detection of groups is imperfect and group size may be under-counted, but not over-counted. The estimator combines an MRDS model with an N-mixture model to account for imperfect detection of individuals. The new MRDS-Nmix model requires the same data as an MRDS model (independent detection histories, an estimate of distance to transect, and an estimate of group size), plus a second estimate of group size provided by the second observer. We extend the model to situations in which detection of individuals within groups declines with distance. We simulated 12 data sets and used Bayesian methods to compare the performance of the new MRDS-Nmix model to an MRDS model. Abundance estimates generated by the MRDS-Nmix model exhibited minimal bias and nominal coverage levels. In contrast, MRDS abundance estimates were biased low and exhibited poor coverage. Many species of conservation interest reside in groups and could benefit from an estimator that better accounts for imperfect detection. Furthermore, the ability to relax the assumption of perfect detection of individuals within detected groups may allow surveyors to re-allocate resources toward detection of new groups instead of extensive surveys of known groups. We believe the proposed estimator is feasible because the only additional field data

  17. Accounting for imperfect detection of groups and individuals when estimating abundance

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Clement, Matthew J.; Converse, Sarah J.; Royle, J. Andrew

    2017-01-01

    If animals are independently detected during surveys, many methods exist for estimating animal abundance despite detection probabilities <1. Common estimators include double-observer models, distance sampling models and combined double-observer and distance sampling models (known as mark-recapture-distance-sampling models; MRDS). When animals reside in groups, however, the assumption of independent detection is violated. In this case, the standard approach is to account for imperfect detection of groups, while assuming that individuals within groups are detected perfectly. However, this assumption is often unsupported. We introduce an abundance estimator for grouped animals when detection of groups is imperfect and group size may be under-counted, but not over-counted. The estimator combines an MRDS model with an N-mixture model to account for imperfect detection of individuals. The new MRDS-Nmix model requires the same data as an MRDS model (independent detection histories, an estimate of distance to transect, and an estimate of group size), plus a second estimate of group size provided by the second observer. We extend the model to situations in which detection of individuals within groups declines with distance. We simulated 12 data sets and used Bayesian methods to compare the performance of the new MRDS-Nmix model to an MRDS model. Abundance estimates generated by the MRDS-Nmix model exhibited minimal bias and nominal coverage levels. In contrast, MRDS abundance estimates were biased low and exhibited poor coverage. Many species of conservation interest reside in groups and could benefit from an estimator that better accounts for imperfect detection. Furthermore, the ability to relax the assumption of perfect detection of individuals within detected groups may allow surveyors to re-allocate resources toward detection of new groups instead of extensive surveys of known groups. We believe the proposed estimator is feasible because the only additional field data

  18. Spectral Unmixing Based Construction of Lunar Mineral Abundance Maps

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bernhardt, V.; Grumpe, A.; Wöhler, C.

    2017-07-01

    In this study we apply a nonlinear spectral unmixing algorithm to a nearly global lunar spectral reflectance mosaic derived from hyper-spectral image data acquired by the Moon Mineralogy Mapper (M3) instrument. Corrections for topographic effects and for thermal emission were performed. A set of 19 laboratory-based reflectance spectra of lunar samples published by the Lunar Soil Characterization Consortium (LSCC) were used as a catalog of potential endmember spectra. For a given spectrum, the multi-population population-based incremental learning (MPBIL) algorithm was used to determine the subset of endmembers actually contained in it. However, as the MPBIL algorithm is computationally expensive, it cannot be applied to all pixels of the reflectance mosaic. Hence, the reflectance mosaic was clustered into a set of 64 prototype spectra, and the MPBIL algorithm was applied to each prototype spectrum. Each pixel of the mosaic was assigned to the most similar prototype, and the set of endmembers previously determined for that prototype was used for pixel-wise nonlinear spectral unmixing using the Hapke model, implemented as linear unmixing of the single-scattering albedo spectrum. This procedure yields maps of the fractional abundances of the 19 endmembers. Based on the known modal abundances of a variety of mineral species in the LSCC samples, a conversion from endmember abundances to mineral abundances was performed. We present maps of the fractional abundances of plagioclase, pyroxene and olivine and compare our results with previously published lunar mineral abundance maps.

  19. Estimation and Bias Correction of Aerosol Abundance using Data-driven Machine Learning and Remote Sensing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Malakar, Nabin K.; Lary, D. L.; Moore, A.; Gencaga, D.; Roscoe, B.; Albayrak, Arif; Petrenko, Maksym; Wei, Jennifer

    2012-01-01

    Air quality information is increasingly becoming a public health concern, since some of the aerosol particles pose harmful effects to peoples health. One widely available metric of aerosol abundance is the aerosol optical depth (AOD). The AOD is the integrated light extinction coefficient over a vertical atmospheric column of unit cross section, which represents the extent to which the aerosols in that vertical profile prevent the transmission of light by absorption or scattering. The comparison between the AOD measured from the ground-based Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) system and the satellite MODIS instruments at 550 nm shows that there is a bias between the two data products. We performed a comprehensive analysis exploring possible factors which may be contributing to the inter-instrumental bias between MODIS and AERONET. The analysis used several measured variables, including the MODIS AOD, as input in order to train a neural network in regression mode to predict the AERONET AOD values. This not only allowed us to obtain an estimate, but also allowed us to infer the optimal sets of variables that played an important role in the prediction. In addition, we applied machine learning to infer the global abundance of ground level PM2.5 from the AOD data and other ancillary satellite and meteorology products. This research is part of our goal to provide air quality information, which can also be useful for global epidemiology studies.

  20. Estimating abundance of an open population with an N-mixture model using auxiliary data on animal movements.

    PubMed

    Ketz, Alison C; Johnson, Therese L; Monello, Ryan J; Mack, John A; George, Janet L; Kraft, Benjamin R; Wild, Margaret A; Hooten, Mevin B; Hobbs, N Thompson

    2018-04-01

    Accurate assessment of abundance forms a central challenge in population ecology and wildlife management. Many statistical techniques have been developed to estimate population sizes because populations change over time and space and to correct for the bias resulting from animals that are present in a study area but not observed. The mobility of individuals makes it difficult to design sampling procedures that account for movement into and out of areas with fixed jurisdictional boundaries. Aerial surveys are the gold standard used to obtain data of large mobile species in geographic regions with harsh terrain, but these surveys can be prohibitively expensive and dangerous. Estimating abundance with ground-based census methods have practical advantages, but it can be difficult to simultaneously account for temporary emigration and observer error to avoid biased results. Contemporary research in population ecology increasingly relies on telemetry observations of the states and locations of individuals to gain insight on vital rates, animal movements, and population abundance. Analytical models that use observations of movements to improve estimates of abundance have not been developed. Here we build upon existing multi-state mark-recapture methods using a hierarchical N-mixture model with multiple sources of data, including telemetry data on locations of individuals, to improve estimates of population sizes. We used a state-space approach to model animal movements to approximate the number of marked animals present within the study area at any observation period, thereby accounting for a frequently changing number of marked individuals. We illustrate the approach using data on a population of elk (Cervus elaphus nelsoni) in Northern Colorado, USA. We demonstrate substantial improvement compared to existing abundance estimation methods and corroborate our results from the ground based surveys with estimates from aerial surveys during the same seasons. We develop a

  1. Hankin and Reeves' approach to estimating fish abundance in small streams: Limitations and alternatives

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Thompson, W.L.

    2003-01-01

    Hankin and Reeves' (1988) approach to estimating fish abundance in small streams has been applied in stream fish studies across North America. However, their population estimator relies on two key assumptions: (1) removal estimates are equal to the true numbers of fish, and (2) removal estimates are highly correlated with snorkel counts within a subset of sampled stream units. Violations of these assumptions may produce suspect results. To determine possible sources of the assumption violations, I used data on the abundance of steelhead Oncorhynchus mykiss from Hankin and Reeves' (1988) in a simulation composed of 50,000 repeated, stratified systematic random samples from a spatially clustered distribution. The simulation was used to investigate effects of a range of removal estimates, from 75% to 100% of true fish abundance, on overall stream fish population estimates. The effects of various categories of removal-estimates-to-snorkel-count correlation levels (r = 0.75-1.0) on fish population estimates were also explored. Simulation results indicated that Hankin and Reeves' approach may produce poor results unless removal estimates exceed at least 85% of the true number of fish within sampled units and unless correlations between removal estimates and snorkel counts are at least 0.90. A potential modification to Hankin and Reeves' approach is the inclusion of environmental covariates that affect detection rates of fish into the removal model or other mark-recapture model. A potential alternative approach is to use snorkeling combined with line transect sampling to estimate fish densities within stream units. As with any method of population estimation, a pilot study should be conducted to evaluate its usefulness, which requires a known (or nearly so) population of fish to serve as a benchmark for evaluating bias and precision of estimators.

  2. Nonlinear Spectral Mixture Modeling to Estimate Water-Ice Abundance of Martian Regolith

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gyalay, Szilard; Chu, Kathryn; Zeev Noe Dobrea, Eldar

    2017-10-01

    We present a novel technique to estimate the abundance of water-ice in the Martian permafrost using Phoenix Surface Stereo Imager multispectral data. In previous work, Cull et al. (2010) estimated the abundance of water-ice in trenches dug by the Mars Phoenix lander by modeling the spectra of the icy regolith using the radiative transfer methods described in Hapke (2008) with optical constants for Mauna Kea palagonite (Clancy et al., 1995) as a substitute for unknown Martian regolith optical constants. Our technique, which uses the radiative transfer methods described in Shkuratov et al. (1999), seeks to eliminate the uncertainty that stems from not knowing the composition of the Martian regolith by using observations of the Martian soil before and after the water-ice has sublimated away. We use observations of the desiccated regolith sample to estimate its complex index of refraction from its spectrum. This removes any a priori assumptions of Martian regolith composition, limiting our free parameters to the estimated real index of refraction of the dry regolith at one specific wavelength, ice grain size, and regolith porosity. We can then model mixtures of regolith and water-ice, fitting to the original icy spectrum to estimate the ice abundance. To constrain the uncertainties in this technique, we performed laboratory measurements of the spectra of known mixtures of water-ice and dry soils as well as those of soils after desiccation with controlled viewing geometries. Finally, we applied the technique to Phoenix Surface Stereo Imager observations and estimated water-ice abundances consistent with pore-fill in the near-surface ice. This abundance is consistent with atmospheric diffusion, which has implications to our understanding of the history of water-ice on Mars and the role of the regolith at high latitudes as a reservoir of atmospheric H2O.

  3. Repeated count surveys help standardize multi-agency estimates of American Oystercatcher (Haematopus palliatus) abundance

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hostetter, Nathan J.; Gardner, Beth; Schweitzer, Sara H.; Boettcher, Ruth; Wilke, Alexandra L.; Addison, Lindsay; Swilling, William R.; Pollock, Kenneth H.; Simons, Theodore R.

    2015-01-01

    The extensive breeding range of many shorebird species can make integration of survey data problematic at regional spatial scales. We evaluated the effectiveness of standardized repeated count surveys coordinated across 8 agencies to estimate the abundance of American Oystercatcher (Haematopus palliatus) breeding pairs in the southeastern United States. Breeding season surveys were conducted across coastal North Carolina (90 plots) and the Eastern Shore of Virginia (3 plots). Plots were visited on 1–5 occasions during April–June 2013. N-mixture models were used to estimate abundance and detection probability in relation to survey date, tide stage, plot size, and plot location (coastal bay vs. barrier island). The estimated abundance of oystercatchers in the surveyed area was 1,048 individuals (95% credible interval: 851–1,408) and 470 pairs (384–637), substantially higher than estimates that did not account for detection probability (maximum counts of 674 individuals and 316 pairs). Detection probability was influenced by a quadratic function of survey date, and increased from mid-April (~0.60) to mid-May (~0.80), then remained relatively constant through June. Detection probability was also higher during high tide than during low, rising, or falling tides. Abundance estimates from N-mixture models were validated at 13 plots by exhaustive productivity studies (2–5 surveys wk−1). Intensive productivity studies identified 78 breeding pairs across 13 productivity plots while the N-mixture model abundance estimate was 74 pairs (62–119) using only 1–5 replicated surveys season−1. Our results indicate that standardized replicated count surveys coordinated across multiple agencies and conducted during a relatively short time window (closure assumption) provide tremendous potential to meet both agency-level (e.g., state) and regional-level (e.g., flyway) objectives in large-scale shorebird monitoring programs.

  4. Estimating abundance of Sitka black-tailed deer using DNA from fecal pellets

    Treesearch

    Todd J. Brinkman; David K. Person; F. Stuart Chapin; Winston Smith; Kris J. Hundertmark

    2011-01-01

    Densely vegetated environments have hindered collection of basic population parameters on forest-dwelling ungulates. Our objective was to develop a mark-recapture technique that used DNA from fecal pellets to overcome constraints associated with estimating abundance of ungulates in landscapes where direct observation is difficult. We tested our technique on Sitka black...

  5. Breeding chorus indices are weakly related to estimated abundance of boreal chorus frogs

    Treesearch

    Paul Stephen Corn; Erin Muths; Amanda M. Kissel; Rick D. Scherer

    2011-01-01

    Call surveys used to monitor breeding choruses of anuran amphibians generate index values that are frequently used to represent the number of male frogs present, but few studies have quantified this relationship. We compared abundance of male Boreal Chorus Frogs (Pseudacris maculata), estimated using capture-recapture methods in two populations in Colorado, to call...

  6. Estimating occupancy and abundance of stream amphibians using environmental DNA from filtered water samples

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Pilliod, David S.; Goldberg, Caren S.; Arkle, Robert S.; Waits, Lisette P.

    2013-01-01

    Environmental DNA (eDNA) methods for detecting aquatic species are advancing rapidly, but with little evaluation of field protocols or precision of resulting estimates. We compared sampling results from traditional field methods with eDNA methods for two amphibians in 13 streams in central Idaho, USA. We also evaluated three water collection protocols and the influence of sampling location, time of day, and distance from animals on eDNA concentration in the water. We found no difference in detection or amount of eDNA among water collection protocols. eDNA methods had slightly higher detection rates than traditional field methods, particularly when species occurred at low densities. eDNA concentration was positively related to field-measured density, biomass, and proportion of transects occupied. Precision of eDNA-based abundance estimates increased with the amount of eDNA in the water and the number of replicate subsamples collected. eDNA concentration did not vary significantly with sample location in the stream, time of day, or distance downstream from animals. Our results further advance the implementation of eDNA methods for monitoring aquatic vertebrates in stream habitats.

  7. Linking occupancy surveys with habitat characteristics to estimate abundance and distribution in an endangered cryptic bird

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Crampton, Lisa H.; Brinck, Kevin W.; Pias, Kyle E.; Heindl, Barbara A. P.; Savre, Thomas; Diegmann, Julia S.; Paxton, Eben H.

    2017-01-01

    Accurate estimates of the distribution and abundance of endangered species are crucial to determine their status and plan recovery options, but such estimates are often difficult to obtain for species with low detection probabilities or that occur in inaccessible habitats. The Puaiohi (Myadestes palmeri) is a cryptic species endemic to Kauaʻi, Hawai‘i, and restricted to high elevation ravines that are largely inaccessible. To improve current population estimates, we developed an approach to model distribution and abundance of Puaiohi across their range by linking occupancy surveys to habitat characteristics, territory density, and landscape attributes. Occupancy per station ranged from 0.17 to 0.82, and was best predicted by the number and vertical extent of cliffs, cliff slope, stream width, and elevation. To link occupancy estimates with abundance, we used territory mapping data to estimate the average number of territories per survey station (0.44 and 0.66 territories per station in low and high occupancy streams, respectively), and the average number of individuals per territory (1.9). We then modeled Puaiohi occupancy as a function of two remote-sensed measures of habitat (stream sinuosity and elevation) to predict occupancy across its entire range. We combined predicted occupancy with estimates of birds per station to produce a global population estimate of 494 (95% CI 414–580) individuals. Our approach is a model for using multiple independent sources of information to accurately track population trends, and we discuss future directions for modeling abundance of this, and other, rare species.

  8. Techniques and methods for estimating abundance of larval and metamorphosed sea lampreys in Great Lakes tributaries, 1995 to 2001

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Slade, Jeffrey W.; Adams, Jean V.; Christie, Gavin C.; Cuddy, Douglas W.; Fodale, Michael F.; Heinrich, John W.; Quinlan, Henry R.; Weise, Jerry G.; Weisser, John W.; Young, Robert J.

    2003-01-01

    Before 1995, Great Lakes streams were selected for lampricide treatment based primarily on qualitative measures of the relative abundance of larval sea lampreys, Petromyzon marinus. New integrated pest management approaches required standardized quantitative measures of sea lamprey. This paper evaluates historical larval assessment techniques and data and describes how new standardized methods for estimating abundance of larval and metamorphosed sea lampreys were developed and implemented. These new methods have been used to estimate larval and metamorphosed sea lamprey abundance in about 100 Great Lakes streams annually and to rank them for lampricide treatment since 1995. Implementation of these methods has provided a quantitative means of selecting streams for treatment based on treatment cost and estimated production of metamorphosed sea lampreys, provided managers with a tool to estimate potential recruitment of sea lampreys to the Great Lakes and the ability to measure the potential consequences of not treating streams, resulting in a more justifiable allocation of resources. The empirical data produced can also be used to simulate the impacts of various control scenarios.

  9. Estimating abundances of interacting species using morphological traits, foraging guilds, and habitat

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dorazio, Robert M.; Connor, Edward F.

    2014-01-01

    We developed a statistical model to estimate the abundances of potentially interacting species encountered while conducting point-count surveys at a set of ecologically relevant locations - as in a metacommunity of species. In the model we assume that abundances of species with similar traits (e.g., body size) are potentially correlated and that these correlations, when present, may exist among all species or only among functionally related species (such as members of the same foraging guild). We also assume that species-specific abundances vary among locations owing to systematic and stochastic sources of heterogeneity. For example, if abundances differ among locations due to differences in habitat, then measures of habitat may be included in the model as covariates. Naturally, the quantitative effects of these covariates are assumed to differ among species. Our model also accounts for the effects of detectability on the observed counts of each species. This aspect of the model is especially important for rare or uncommon species that may be difficult to detect in community-level surveys. Estimating the detectability of each species requires sampling locations to be surveyed repeatedly using different observers or different visits of a single observer. As an illustration, we fitted models to species-specific counts of birds obtained while sampling an avian community during the breeding season. In the analysis we examined whether species abundances appeared to be correlated due to similarities in morphological measures (body mass, beak length, tarsus length, wing length, tail length) and whether these correlations existed among all species or only among species of the same foraging guild. We also used the model to estimate the effects of forested area on species abundances and the effects of sound power output (as measured by body size) on species detection probabilities.

  10. Finding a fox: an evaluation of survey methods to estimate abundance of a small desert carnivore.

    PubMed

    Dempsey, Steven J; Gese, Eric M; Kluever, Bryan M

    2014-01-01

    The status of many carnivore species is a growing concern for wildlife agencies, conservation organizations, and the general public. Historically, kit foxes (Vulpes macrotis) were classified as abundant and distributed in the desert and semi-arid regions of southwestern North America, but is now considered rare throughout its range. Survey methods have been evaluated for kit foxes, but often in populations where abundance is high and there is little consensus on which technique is best to monitor abundance. We conducted a 2-year study to evaluate four survey methods (scat deposition surveys, scent station surveys, spotlight survey, and trapping) for detecting kit foxes and measuring fox abundance. We determined the probability of detection for each method, and examined the correlation between the relative abundance as estimated by each survey method and the known minimum kit fox abundance as determined by radio-collared animals. All surveys were conducted on 15 5-km transects during the 3 biological seasons of the kit fox. Scat deposition surveys had both the highest detection probabilities (p = 0.88) and were most closely related to minimum known fox abundance (r2 = 0.50, P = 0.001). The next best method for kit fox detection was the scent station survey (p = 0.73), which had the second highest correlation to fox abundance (r2 = 0.46, P<0.001). For detecting kit foxes in a low density population we suggest using scat deposition transects during the breeding season. Scat deposition surveys have low costs, resilience to weather, low labor requirements, and pose no risk to the study animals. The breeding season was ideal for monitoring kit fox population size, as detections consisted of the resident population and had the highest detection probabilities. Using appropriate monitoring techniques will be critical for future conservation actions for this rare desert carnivore.

  11. Finding a Fox: An Evaluation of Survey Methods to Estimate Abundance of a Small Desert Carnivore

    PubMed Central

    Dempsey, Steven J.; Gese, Eric M.; Kluever, Bryan M.

    2014-01-01

    The status of many carnivore species is a growing concern for wildlife agencies, conservation organizations, and the general public. Historically, kit foxes (Vulpes macrotis) were classified as abundant and distributed in the desert and semi-arid regions of southwestern North America, but is now considered rare throughout its range. Survey methods have been evaluated for kit foxes, but often in populations where abundance is high and there is little consensus on which technique is best to monitor abundance. We conducted a 2-year study to evaluate four survey methods (scat deposition surveys, scent station surveys, spotlight survey, and trapping) for detecting kit foxes and measuring fox abundance. We determined the probability of detection for each method, and examined the correlation between the relative abundance as estimated by each survey method and the known minimum kit fox abundance as determined by radio-collared animals. All surveys were conducted on 15 5-km transects during the 3 biological seasons of the kit fox. Scat deposition surveys had both the highest detection probabilities (p = 0.88) and were most closely related to minimum known fox abundance (r2 = 0.50, P = 0.001). The next best method for kit fox detection was the scent station survey (p = 0.73), which had the second highest correlation to fox abundance (r2 = 0.46, P<0.001). For detecting kit foxes in a low density population we suggest using scat deposition transects during the breeding season. Scat deposition surveys have low costs, resilience to weather, low labor requirements, and pose no risk to the study animals. The breeding season was ideal for monitoring kit fox population size, as detections consisted of the resident population and had the highest detection probabilities. Using appropriate monitoring techniques will be critical for future conservation actions for this rare desert carnivore. PMID:25148102

  12. Efficacy of time-lapse photography and repeated counts abundance estimation for white-tailed deer populations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Keever, Allison; McGowan, Conor P.; Ditchkoff, Stephen S.; Acker, S.A.; Grand, James B.; Newbolt, Chad H.

    2017-01-01

    Automated cameras have become increasingly common for monitoring wildlife populations and estimating abundance. Most analytical methods, however, fail to account for incomplete and variable detection probabilities, which biases abundance estimates. Methods which do account for detection have not been thoroughly tested, and those that have been tested were compared to other methods of abundance estimation. The goal of this study was to evaluate the accuracy and effectiveness of the N-mixture method, which explicitly incorporates detection probability, to monitor white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) by using camera surveys and a known, marked population to collect data and estimate abundance. Motion-triggered camera surveys were conducted at Auburn University’s deer research facility in 2010. Abundance estimates were generated using N-mixture models and compared to the known number of marked deer in the population. We compared abundance estimates generated from a decreasing number of survey days used in analysis and by time periods (DAY, NIGHT, SUNRISE, SUNSET, CREPUSCULAR, ALL TIMES). Accurate abundance estimates were generated using 24 h of data and nighttime only data. Accuracy of abundance estimates increased with increasing number of survey days until day 5, and there was no improvement with additional data. This suggests that, for our system, 5-day camera surveys conducted at night were adequate for abundance estimation and population monitoring. Further, our study demonstrates that camera surveys and N-mixture models may be a highly effective method for estimation and monitoring of ungulate populations.

  13. Estimating abundance without recaptures of marked pallid sturgeon in the Mississippi River.

    PubMed

    Friedenberg, Nicholas A; Hoover, Jan Jeffrey; Boysen, Krista; Killgore, K Jack

    2018-04-01

    Abundance estimates are essential for assessing the viability of populations and the risks posed by alternative management actions. An effort to estimate abundance via a repeated mark-recapture experiment may fail to recapture marked individuals. We devised a method for obtaining lower bounds on abundance in the absence of recaptures for both panmictic and spatially structured populations. The method assumes few enough recaptures were expected to be missed by random chance. The upper Bayesian credible limit on expected recaptures allows probabilistic statements about the minimum number of individuals present in the population. We applied this method to data from a 12-year survey of pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus) in the lower and middle Mississippi River (U.S.A.). None of the 241 individuals marked was recaptured in the survey. After accounting for survival and movement, our model-averaged estimate of the total abundance of pallid sturgeon ≥3 years old in the study area had a 1%, 5%, or 25% chance of being <4,600, 7,000, or 15,000, respectively. When we assumed fish were distributed in proportion to survey catch per unit effort, the farthest downstream reach in the survey hosted at least 4.5-15 fish per river kilometer (rkm), whereas the remainder of the reaches in the lower and middle Mississippi River hosted at least 2.6-8.5 fish/rkm for all model variations examined. The lower Mississippi River had an average density of pallid sturgeon ≥3 years old of at least 3.0-9.8 fish/rkm. The choice of Bayesian prior was the largest source of uncertainty we considered but did not alter the order of magnitude of lower bounds. Nil-recapture estimates of abundance are highly uncertain and require careful communication but can deliver insights from experiments that might otherwise be considered a failure. © 2017 Society for Conservation Biology.

  14. Combining counts and incidence data: an efficient approach for estimating the log-normal species abundance distribution and diversity indices.

    PubMed

    Bellier, Edwige; Grøtan, Vidar; Engen, Steinar; Schartau, Ann Kristin; Diserud, Ola H; Finstad, Anders G

    2012-10-01

    Obtaining accurate estimates of diversity indices is difficult because the number of species encountered in a sample increases with sampling intensity. We introduce a novel method that requires that the presence of species in a sample to be assessed while the counts of the number of individuals per species are only required for just a small part of the sample. To account for species included as incidence data in the species abundance distribution, we modify the likelihood function of the classical Poisson log-normal distribution. Using simulated community assemblages, we contrast diversity estimates based on a community sample, a subsample randomly extracted from the community sample, and a mixture sample where incidence data are added to a subsample. We show that the mixture sampling approach provides more accurate estimates than the subsample and at little extra cost. Diversity indices estimated from a freshwater zooplankton community sampled using the mixture approach show the same pattern of results as the simulation study. Our method efficiently increases the accuracy of diversity estimates and comprehension of the left tail of the species abundance distribution. We show how to choose the scale of sample size needed for a compromise between information gained, accuracy of the estimates and cost expended when assessing biological diversity. The sample size estimates are obtained from key community characteristics, such as the expected number of species in the community, the expected number of individuals in a sample and the evenness of the community.

  15. Modelling community dynamics based on species-level abundance models from detection/nondetection data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Yamaura, Yuichi; Royle, J. Andrew; Kuboi, Kouji; Tada, Tsuneo; Ikeno, Susumu; Makino, Shun'ichi

    2011-01-01

    1. In large-scale field surveys, a binary recording of each species' detection or nondetection has been increasingly adopted for its simplicity and low cost. Because of the importance of abundance in many studies, it is desirable to obtain inferences about abundance at species-, functional group-, and community-levels from such binary data. 2. We developed a novel hierarchical multi-species abundance model based on species-level detection/nondetection data. The model accounts for the existence of undetected species, and variability in abundance and detectability among species. Species-level detection/nondetection is linked to species- level abundance via a detection model that accommodates the expectation that probability of detection (at least one individuals is detected) increases with local abundance of the species. We applied this model to a 9-year dataset composed of the detection/nondetection of forest birds, at a single post-fire site (from 7 to 15 years after fire) in a montane area of central Japan. The model allocated undetected species into one of the predefined functional groups by assuming a prior distribution on individual group membership. 3. The results suggest that 15–20 species were missed in each year, and that species richness of communities and functional groups did not change with post-fire forest succession. Overall abundance of birds and abundance of functional groups tended to increase over time, although only in the winter, while decreases in detectabilities were observed in several species. 4. Synthesis and applications. Understanding and prediction of large-scale biodiversity dynamics partly hinge on how we can use data effectively. Our hierarchical model for detection/nondetection data estimates abundance in space/time at species-, functional group-, and community-levels while accounting for undetected individuals and species. It also permits comparison of multiple communities by many types of abundance-based diversity and similarity

  16. Estimated Rock Abundance and Thermophysical Parameters in Oppenheimer Crater on the Moon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bauch, Karin E.; Hiesinger, Harald; Ivanov, Mikhail; van der Bogert, Carolyn H.; Pasckert, Jan-Hendrik; Weinauer, Julia

    2016-04-01

    Oppenheimer crater is located in the north-east of the South Pole-Aitken basin (SPA), the largest impact structure on the Moon [e.g., 1]. The crater is ˜215km in diameter and has an estimated age of ˜4.1 Ga [2]. The floor of Oppenheimer shows evidence of dark mantling deposits and a concentric system of graben structures close to the rim of the crater [3]. Image and topography data show that the floor is flat apart from the graben structures and subsequent impacts on the floor. Oppenheimer-U (˜40km) and -H (˜35km) are floor-fractured craters within the north-west and south-east portions of Oppenheimer crater [3]. Dark mantling deposits on the floor are associated with the graben system. [3] estimated an age between ˜3.98Ga and ˜3.66Ga for the pyroclastic activity, based on crater size-frequency distribution (CSFD) measurements on Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) WAC and NAC images. In this study we compare the mapping results of [3] with temperature data of the LRO Diviner experiment [4] using a numerical model [5, 6]. Nighttime temperature variations are directly influenced by the surface and subsurface thermophysical properties, namely bulk density, heat capacity, and thermal conductivity [7, 8]. These properties can be summarized to a thermal inertia, which represents the ability to conduct and store heat [8]. Low thermal inertia units, such as dust and other fine grained material, quickly respond to temperature changes, which results in large temperature amplitudes between the lunar day and night. On the other hand, high thermal inertia material, e.g. rocks or bedrock, take more time to heat up during the day and reradiate the heat during the night [8]. Relative rock abundances are derived from temperature measurements of the same location at different wavelengths. Brightness temperatures are a function of wavelength and increase with decreasing wavelength [9, 10]. This nonlinearity of the Planck radiance can be used to determine the amount of

  17. Abundance of adult horseshoe crabs (Limulus polylphemus) in Delaware Bay estimated from a bay-wide mark-recapture study

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Smith, D.R.; Millard, M.J.; Eyler, S.

    2006-01-01

    Estimates of the abundance of American horseshoe crabs (Limulus polyphemus) are important to determine egg production and to manage populations for the energetic needs of shorebirds that feed on horseshoe crab eggs. In 2003, over 17,500 horseshoe crabs were tagged and released throughout Delaware Bay, and recaptured crabs came from spawning surveys that were conducted during peak spawning. We used two release cohorts to test for a temporary effect of tagging on spawning behavior and we adjusted the number of releases according to relocation rates from a telemetry study. The abundance estimate was 20 million horseshoe crabs (90% confidence interval: 13-28 million), of which 6.25 million (90% CI: 4.0-8.8 million) were females. The combined harvest rate for Delaware, New Jersey, Virginia, and Maryland in 2003 was 4% (90% CI: 3-6%) of the abundance estimate. Over-wintering of adults in Delaware Bay could explain, in part, differences in estimates from ocean-trawl surveys. Based on fecundity of 88,000 eggs per female, egg production was 5.5??1011 (90% CI: 3.5??1011, 7.7??1011), but egg availability for shorebirds also depended on overlap between horseshoe crab and shorebird migrations, density-dependent bioturbation, and wave-mediated vertical transport.

  18. A new device to estimate abundance of moist-soil plant seeds

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Penny, E.J.; Kaminski, R.M.; Reinecke, K.J.

    2006-01-01

    Methods to sample the abundance of moist-soil seeds efficiently and accurately are critical for evaluating management practices and determining food availability. We adapted a portable, gasoline-powered vacuum to estimate abundance of seeds on the surface of a moist-soil wetland in east-central Mississippi and evaluated the sampler by simulating conditions that researchers and managers may experience when sampling moist-soil areas for seeds. We measured the percent recovery of known masses of seeds by the vacuum sampler in relation to 4 experimentally controlled factors (i.e., seed-size class, sample mass, soil moisture class, and vacuum time) with 2-4 levels per factor. We also measured processing time of samples in the laboratory. Across all experimental factors, seed recovery averaged 88.4% and varied little (CV = 0.68%, n = 474). Overall, mean time to process a sample was 30.3 ? 2.5 min (SE, n = 417). Our estimate of seed recovery rate (88%) may be used to adjust estimates for incomplete seed recovery, or project-specific correction factors may be developed by investigators. Our device was effective for estimating surface abundance of moist-soil plant seeds after dehiscence and before habitats were flooded.

  19. Estimating the abundance of the Southern Hudson Bay polar bear subpopulation with aerial surveys

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Obbard, Martyn E.; Stapleton, Seth P.; Middel, Kevin R.; Thibault, Isabelle; Brodeur, Vincent; Jutras, Charles

    2015-01-01

    The Southern Hudson Bay (SH) polar bear subpopulation occurs at the southern extent of the species’ range. Although capture–recapture studies indicate abundance was likely unchanged between 1986 and 2005, declines in body condition and survival occurred during the period, possibly foreshadowing a future decrease in abundance. To obtain a current estimate of abundance, we conducted a comprehensive line transect aerial survey of SH during 2011–2012. We stratified the study site by anticipated densities and flew coastal contour transects and systematically spaced inland transects in Ontario and on Akimiski Island and large offshore islands in 2011. Data were collected with double-observer and distance sampling protocols. We surveyed small islands in James Bay and eastern Hudson Bay and flew a comprehensive transect along the Québec coastline in 2012. We observed 667 bears in Ontario and on Akimiski Island and nearby islands in 2011, and we sighted 80 bears on offshore islands during 2012. Mark–recapture distance sampling and sight–resight models yielded an estimate of 860 (SE = 174) for the 2011 study area. Our estimate of abundance for the entire SH subpopulation (943; SE = 174) suggests that abundance is unlikely to have changed significantly since 1986. However, this result should be interpreted cautiously because of the methodological differences between historical studies (physical capture–recapture) and this survey. A conservative management approach is warranted given previous increases in duration of the ice-free season, which are predicted to continue in the future, and previously documented declines in body condition and vital rates.

  20. Estimating abundance of the Southern Hudson Bay polar bear subpopulation using aerial surveys, 2011 and 2012

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Obbard, Martyn E.; Middel, Kevin R.; Stapleton, Seth P.; Thibault, Isabelle; Brodeur, Vincent; Jutras, Charles

    2013-01-01

    The Southern Hudson Bay (SH) polar bear subpopulation occurs at the southern extent of the species’ range. Although capture-recapture studies indicate that abundance remained stable between 1986 and 2005, declines in body condition and survival were documented during the period, possibly foreshadowing a future decrease in abundance. To obtain a current estimate of abundance, we conducted a comprehensive line transect aerial survey of SH during 2011–2012. We stratified the study site by anticipated densities and flew coastal contour transects and systematically spaced inland transects in Ontario and on Akimiski Island and large offshore islands in 2011. Data were collected with double observer and distance sampling protocols. We also surveyed small islands in Hudson Bay and James Bay and flew a comprehensive transect along the Québec coastline in 2012. We observed 667 bears in Ontario and on Akimiski Island and nearby islands in 2011, and we sighted 80 bears on offshore islands during 2012. Mark-recapture distance sampling and sightresight models yielded a model-averaged estimate of 868 (SE: 177) for the 2011 study area. Our estimate of abundance for the entire SH subpopulation (951; SE: 177) suggests that abundance has remained unchanged. However, this result should be interpreted cautiously because of the methodological differences between historical studies (physical capture) and this survey. A conservative management approach is warranted given the previous increases in the duration of the ice-free season, which are predicted to continue in the future, and previously documented declines in body condition and vital rates.

  1. Estimating abundance while accounting for rarity, correlated behavior, and other sources of variation in counts.

    PubMed

    Dorazio, Robert M; Martin, Julien; Edwards, Holly H

    2013-07-01

    The class of N-mixture models allows abundance to be estimated from repeated, point count surveys while adjusting for imperfect detection of individuals. We developed an extension of N-mixture models to account for two commonly observed phenomena in point count surveys: rarity and lack of independence induced by unmeasurable sources of variation in the detectability of individuals. Rarity increases the number of locations with zero detections in excess of those expected under simple models of abundance (e.g., Poisson or negative binomial). Correlated behavior of individuals and other phenomena, though difficult to measure, increases the variation in detection probabilities among surveys. Our extension of N-mixture models includes a hurdle model of abundance and a beta-binomial model of detectability that accounts for additional (extra-binomial) sources of variation in detections among surveys. As an illustration, we fit this model to repeated point counts of the West Indian manatee, which was observed in a pilot study using aerial surveys. Our extension of N-mixture models provides increased flexibility. The effects of different sets of covariates may be estimated for the probability of occurrence of a species, for its mean abundance at occupied locations, and for its detectability.

  2. Estimating abundance while accounting for rarity, correlated behavior, and other sources of variation in counts

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dorazio, Robert M.; Martin, Juulien; Edwards, Holly H.

    2013-01-01

    The class of N-mixture models allows abundance to be estimated from repeated, point count surveys while adjusting for imperfect detection of individuals. We developed an extension of N-mixture models to account for two commonly observed phenomena in point count surveys: rarity and lack of independence induced by unmeasurable sources of variation in the detectability of individuals. Rarity increases the number of locations with zero detections in excess of those expected under simple models of abundance (e.g., Poisson or negative binomial). Correlated behavior of individuals and other phenomena, though difficult to measure, increases the variation in detection probabilities among surveys. Our extension of N-mixture models includes a hurdle model of abundance and a beta-binomial model of detectability that accounts for additional (extra-binomial) sources of variation in detections among surveys. As an illustration, we fit this model to repeated point counts of the West Indian manatee, which was observed in a pilot study using aerial surveys. Our extension of N-mixture models provides increased flexibility. The effects of different sets of covariates may be estimated for the probability of occurrence of a species, for its mean abundance at occupied locations, and for its detectability.

  3. Estimating abundance and density of Amur tigers along the Sino-Russian border.

    PubMed

    Xiao, Wenhong; Feng, Limin; Mou, Pu; Miquelle, Dale G; Hebblewhite, Mark; Goldberg, Joshua F; Robinson, Hugh S; Zhao, Xiaodan; Zhou, Bo; Wang, Tianming; Ge, Jianping

    2016-07-01

    As an apex predator the Amur tiger (Panthera tigris altaica) could play a pivotal role in maintaining the integrity of forest ecosystems in Northeast Asia. Due to habitat loss and harvest over the past century, tigers rapidly declined in China and are now restricted to the Russian Far East and bordering habitat in nearby China. To facilitate restoration of the tiger in its historical range, reliable estimates of population size are essential to assess effectiveness of conservation interventions. Here we used camera trap data collected in Hunchun National Nature Reserve from April to June 2013 and 2014 to estimate tiger density and abundance using both maximum likelihood and Bayesian spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR) methods. A minimum of 8 individuals were detected in both sample periods and the documentation of marking behavior and reproduction suggests the presence of a resident population. Using Bayesian SECR modeling within the 11 400 km(2) state space, density estimates were 0.33 and 0.40 individuals/100 km(2) in 2013 and 2014, respectively, corresponding to an estimated abundance of 38 and 45 animals for this transboundary Sino-Russian population. In a maximum likelihood framework, we estimated densities of 0.30 and 0.24 individuals/100 km(2) corresponding to abundances of 34 and 27, in 2013 and 2014, respectively. These density estimates are comparable to other published estimates for resident Amur tiger populations in the Russian Far East. This study reveals promising signs of tiger recovery in Northeast China, and demonstrates the importance of connectivity between the Russian and Chinese populations for recovering tigers in Northeast China. © 2016 International Society of Zoological Sciences, Institute of Zoology/Chinese Academy of Sciences and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

  4. Estimation of occupancy, breeding success, and predicted abundance of golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) in the Diablo Range, California, 2014

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wiens, J. David; Kolar, Patrick S.; Fuller, Mark R.; Hunt, W. Grainger; Hunt, Teresa

    2015-01-01

    We used a multistate occupancy sampling design to estimate occupancy, breeding success, and abundance of territorial pairs of golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) in the Diablo Range, California, in 2014. This method uses the spatial pattern of detections and non-detections over repeated visits to survey sites to estimate probabilities of occupancy and successful reproduction while accounting for imperfect detection of golden eagles and their young during surveys. The estimated probability of detecting territorial pairs of golden eagles and their young was less than 1 and varied with time of the breeding season, as did the probability of correctly classifying a pair’s breeding status. Imperfect detection and breeding classification led to a sizeable difference between the uncorrected, naïve estimate of the proportion of occupied sites where successful reproduction was observed (0.20) and the model-based estimate (0.30). The analysis further indicated a relatively high overall probability of landscape occupancy by pairs of golden eagles (0.67, standard error = 0.06), but that areas with the greatest occupancy and reproductive potential were patchily distributed. We documented a total of 138 territorial pairs of golden eagles during surveys completed in the 2014 breeding season, which represented about one-half of the 280 pairs we estimated to occur in the broader 5,169-square kilometer region sampled. The study results emphasize the importance of accounting for imperfect detection and spatial heterogeneity in studies of site occupancy, breeding success, and abundance of golden eagles.

  5. A double-observer approach for estimating detection probability and abundance from point counts

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.; Sauer, J.R.; Fallon, F.W.; Fallon, J.E.; Heglund, P.J.

    2000-01-01

    Although point counts are frequently used in ornithological studies, basic assumptions about detection probabilities often are untested. We apply a double-observer approach developed to estimate detection probabilities for aerial surveys (Cook and Jacobson 1979) to avian point counts. At each point count, a designated 'primary' observer indicates to another ('secondary') observer all birds detected. The secondary observer records all detections of the primary observer as well as any birds not detected by the primary observer. Observers alternate primary and secondary roles during the course of the survey. The approach permits estimation of observer-specific detection probabilities and bird abundance. We developed a set of models that incorporate different assumptions about sources of variation (e.g. observer, bird species) in detection probability. Seventeen field trials were conducted, and models were fit to the resulting data using program SURVIV. Single-observer point counts generally miss varying proportions of the birds actually present, and observer and bird species were found to be relevant sources of variation in detection probabilities. Overall detection probabilities (probability of being detected by at least one of the two observers) estimated using the double-observer approach were very high (>0.95), yielding precise estimates of avian abundance. We consider problems with the approach and recommend possible solutions, including restriction of the approach to fixed-radius counts to reduce the effect of variation in the effective radius of detection among various observers and to provide a basis for using spatial sampling to estimate bird abundance on large areas of interest. We believe that most questions meriting the effort required to carry out point counts also merit serious attempts to estimate detection probabilities associated with the counts. The double-observer approach is a method that can be used for this purpose.

  6. Comparison of visual survey and seining methods for estimating abundance of an endangered, benthic stream fish

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jordan, F.; Jelks, H.L.; Bortone, S.A.; Dorazio, R.M.

    2008-01-01

    We compared visual survey and seining methods for estimating abundance of endangered Okaloosa darters, Etheostoma okaloosae, in 12 replicate stream reaches during August 2001. For each 20-m stream reach, two divers systematically located and marked the position of darters and then a second crew of three to five people came through with a small-mesh seine and exhaustively sampled the same area. Visual surveys required little extra time to complete. Visual counts (24.2 ?? 12.0; mean ?? one SD) considerably exceeded seine captures (7.4 ?? 4.8), and counts from the two methods were uncorrelated. Visual surveys, but not seines, detected the presence of Okaloosa darters at one site with low population densities. In 2003, we performed a depletion removal study in 10 replicate stream reaches to assess the accuracy of the visual survey method. Visual surveys detected 59% of Okaloosa darters present, and visual counts and removal estimates were positively correlated. Taken together, our comparisons indicate that visual surveys more accurately and precisely estimate abundance of Okaloosa darters than seining and more reliably detect presence at low population densities. We recommend evaluation of visual survey methods when designing programs to monitor abundance of benthic fishes in clear streams, especially for threatened and endangered species that may be sensitive to handling and habitat disturbance. ?? 2007 Springer Science+Business Media, Inc.

  7. A multimodal detection model of dolphins to estimate abundance validated by field experiments.

    PubMed

    Akamatsu, Tomonari; Ura, Tamaki; Sugimatsu, Harumi; Bahl, Rajendar; Behera, Sandeep; Panda, Sudarsan; Khan, Muntaz; Kar, S K; Kar, C S; Kimura, Satoko; Sasaki-Yamamoto, Yukiko

    2013-09-01

    Abundance estimation of marine mammals requires matching of detection of an animal or a group of animal by two independent means. A multimodal detection model using visual and acoustic cues (surfacing and phonation) that enables abundance estimation of dolphins is proposed. The method does not require a specific time window to match the cues of both means for applying mark-recapture method. The proposed model was evaluated using data obtained in field observations of Ganges River dolphins and Irrawaddy dolphins, as examples of dispersed and condensed distributions of animals, respectively. The acoustic detection probability was approximately 80%, 20% higher than that of visual detection for both species, regardless of the distribution of the animals in present study sites. The abundance estimates of Ganges River dolphins and Irrawaddy dolphins fairly agreed with the numbers reported in previous monitoring studies. The single animal detection probability was smaller than that of larger cluster size, as predicted by the model and confirmed by field data. However, dense groups of Irrawaddy dolphins showed difference in cluster sizes observed by visual and acoustic methods. Lower detection probability of single clusters of this species seemed to be caused by the clumped distribution of this species.

  8. Estimating disperser abundance using open population models that incorporate data from continuous detection PIT arrays

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dzul, Maria C.; Yackulic, Charles B.; Korman, Josh

    2017-01-01

    Autonomous passive integrated transponder (PIT) tag antenna systems continuously detect individually marked organisms at one or more fixed points over long time periods. Estimating abundance using data from autonomous antennae can be challenging, because these systems do not detect unmarked individuals. Here we pair PIT antennae data from a tributary with mark-recapture sampling data in a mainstem river to estimate the number of fish moving from the mainstem to the tributary. We then use our model to estimate abundance of non-native rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss that move from the Colorado River to the Little Colorado River (LCR), the latter of which is important spawning and rearing habitat for federally-endangered humpback chub Gila cypha. We estimate 226 rainbow trout (95% CI: 127-370) entered the LCR from October 2013-April 2014. We discuss the challenges of incorporating detections from autonomous PIT antenna systems into mark-recapture population models, particularly in regards to using information about spatial location to estimate movement and detection probabilities.

  9. Space-based measurements of elemental abundances and their relation to solar abundances

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Coplan, M. A.; Ogilvie, K. W.; Bochsler, P.; Geiss, J.

    1990-01-01

    The Ion Composition Instrument (ICI) aboard the ISEE-3/ICE spacecraft was in the solar wind continuously from August 1978 to December 1982. The results made it possible to establish long-term average solar wind abundance values for helium, oxygen, neon, silicon, and iron. The Charge-Energy-Mass instrument aboard the CCE spacecraft of the AMPTE mission has measured the abundance of these elements in the magnetosheath and has also added carbon, nitrogen, magnesium, and sulfur to the list. There is strong evidence that these magnetosheath abundances are representative of the solar wind. Other sources of solar wind abundances are Solar Energetic Particle experiments and Apollo lunar foils. When comparing the abundances from all of these sources with photospheric abundances, it is clear that helium is depleted in the solar wind while silicon and iron are enhanced. Solar wind abundances for carbon, nitrogen, oxygen, and neon correlate well with the photospheric values. The incorporation of minor ions into the solar wind appears to depend upon both the ionization times for the elements and the Coulomb drag exerted by the outflowing proton flux.

  10. Can we estimate molluscan abundance and biomass on the continental shelf?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Powell, Eric N.; Mann, Roger; Ashton-Alcox, Kathryn A.; Kuykendall, Kelsey M.; Chase Long, M.

    2017-11-01

    Few empirical studies have focused on the effect of sample density on the estimate of abundance of the dominant carbonate-producing fauna of the continental shelf. Here, we present such a study and consider the implications of suboptimal sampling design on estimates of abundance and size-frequency distribution. We focus on a principal carbonate producer of the U.S. Atlantic continental shelf, the Atlantic surfclam, Spisula solidissima. To evaluate the degree to which the results are typical, we analyze a dataset for the principal carbonate producer of Mid-Atlantic estuaries, the Eastern oyster Crassostrea virginica, obtained from Delaware Bay. These two species occupy different habitats and display different lifestyles, yet demonstrate similar challenges to survey design and similar trends with sampling density. The median of a series of simulated survey mean abundances, the central tendency obtained over a large number of surveys of the same area, always underestimated true abundance at low sample densities. More dramatic were the trends in the probability of a biased outcome. As sample density declined, the probability of a survey availability event, defined as a survey yielding indices >125% or <75% of the true population abundance, increased and that increase was disproportionately biased towards underestimates. For these cases where a single sample accessed about 0.001-0.004% of the domain, 8-15 random samples were required to reduce the probability of a survey availability event below 40%. The problem of differential bias, in which the probabilities of a biased-high and a biased-low survey index were distinctly unequal, was resolved with fewer samples than the problem of overall bias. These trends suggest that the influence of sampling density on survey design comes with a series of incremental challenges. At woefully inadequate sampling density, the probability of a biased-low survey index will substantially exceed the probability of a biased-high index. The

  11. Conservation in a cup of water: estimating biodiversity and population abundance from environmental DNA.

    PubMed

    Lodge, David M; Turner, Cameron R; Jerde, Christopher L; Barnes, Matthew A; Chadderton, Lindsay; Egan, Scott P; Feder, Jeffrey L; Mahon, Andrew R; Pfrender, Michael E

    2012-06-01

    Three mantras often guide species and ecosystem management: (i) for preventing invasions by harmful species, 'early detection and rapid response'; (ii) for conserving imperilled native species, 'protection of biodiversity hotspots'; and (iii) for assessing biosecurity risk, 'an ounce of prevention equals a pound of cure.' However, these and other management goals are elusive when traditional sampling tools (e.g. netting, traps, electrofishing, visual surveys) have poor detection limits, are too slow or are not feasible. One visionary solution is to use an organism's DNA in the environment (eDNA), rather than the organism itself, as the target of detection. In this issue of Molecular Ecology, Thomsen et al. (2012) provide new evidence demonstrating the feasibility of this approach, showing that eDNA is an accurate indicator of the presence of an impressively diverse set of six aquatic or amphibious taxa including invertebrates, amphibians, a fish and a mammal in a wide range of freshwater habitats. They are also the first to demonstrate that the abundance of eDNA, as measured by qPCR, correlates positively with population abundance estimated with traditional tools. Finally, Thomsen et al. (2012) demonstrate that next-generation sequencing of eDNA can quantify species richness. Overall, Thomsen et al. (2012) provide a revolutionary roadmap for using eDNA for detection of species, estimates of relative abundance and quantification of biodiversity. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  12. Lunar mare TiO2 abundances estimated from UV/Vis reflectance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sato, Hiroyuki; Robinson, Mark S.; Lawrence, Samuel J.; Denevi, Brett W.; Hapke, Bruce; Jolliff, Bradley L.; Hiesinger, Harald

    2017-11-01

    The visible (400-700 nm) and near-infrared (700-2800 nm) reflectance of the lunar regolith is dominantly controlled by variations in the abundance of plagioclase, iron-bearing silicate minerals, opaque minerals (e.g., ilmenite), and maturation products (e.g., agglutinate glass, radiation-produced rims on soil grains, and Fe-metal). The same materials control reflectance into the near-UV (250-400 nm) with varying degrees of importance. A key difference is that while ilmenite is spectrally neutral in the visible to near-infrared, it exhibits a diagnostic upturn in reflectance in the near-UV, at wavelengths shorter than about 450 nm. The Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter Wide Angle Camera (WAC) filters were specifically designed to take advantage of this spectral feature to enable more accurate mapping of ilmenite within mare soils than previously possible. Using the reflectance measured at 321 and 415 nm during 62 months of repeated near-global WAC observations, first we found a linear correlation between the TiO2 contents of the lunar soil samples and the 321/415 nm ratio of each sample return site. We then used the coefficients from the linear regression and the near-global WAC multispectral mosaic to derive a new TiO2 map. The average TiO2 content is 3.9 wt% for the 17 major maria. The highest TiO2 values were found in Mare Tranquillitatis (∼12.6 wt%) and Oceanus Procellarum (∼11.6 wt%). Regions contaminated by highland ejecta, lunar swirls, and the low-TiO2 maria (e.g., Mare Frigoris, the northeastern units of Mare Imbrium) exhibit very low TiO2 values (<2 wt%). We find that the Clementine visible to near-infrared based TiO2 maps (Lucey et al., 2000) have systematically higher values relative to the WAC estimates. The Lunar Prospector Gamma-Ray Spectrometer (GRS) TiO2 map is consistent with the WAC TiO2 map, although there are local offsets possibly due to the different depth sensitivities and large pixel scale of the GRS relative to the WAC. We find a wide

  13. Abundance and biomass of herbivorous zooplankton off Kingston, Jamaica, with estimates of their annual production

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Clarke, Cheryl; Roff, John C.

    1990-10-01

    During 1985-1986 weekly collections of zooplankton were made off Lime Cay, Jamaica, which is representative of the cays area off southern Jamaica. The dominant (non-copepod) herbivorous taxa, Larvacea, Thaliacea, Cladocera and Pteropoda, were enumerated, and their daily biomasses were estimated by direct weighing or from length-weight regressions. The dominant taxa, in abundance, were the Oikopleuridae and Fritillaridae (49·8% and 35·8%, respectively), but the dominant taxon in terms of biomass was Thalia democratica-on average 75·2% of the total. These herbivorous taxa generally exhibited pronounced variations in abundance which, with the exception of an inverse relationship between Fritillaria spp. and the picoplankton, were not correlated with any size fraction of the phytoplankton. Calculations suggest that, in total, these "other" herbivorous groups may equal the copepods in terms of annual production, and may on occasions exceed them by nearly three-fold.

  14. Integrating acoustic telemetry into mark-recapture models to improve the precision of apparent survival and abundance estimates.

    PubMed

    Dudgeon, Christine L; Pollock, Kenneth H; Braccini, J Matias; Semmens, Jayson M; Barnett, Adam

    2015-07-01

    Capture-mark-recapture models are useful tools for estimating demographic parameters but often result in low precision when recapture rates are low. Low recapture rates are typical in many study systems including fishing-based studies. Incorporating auxiliary data into the models can improve precision and in some cases enable parameter estimation. Here, we present a novel application of acoustic telemetry for the estimation of apparent survival and abundance within capture-mark-recapture analysis using open population models. Our case study is based on simultaneously collecting longline fishing and acoustic telemetry data for a large mobile apex predator, the broadnose sevengill shark (Notorhynchus cepedianus), at a coastal site in Tasmania, Australia. Cormack-Jolly-Seber models showed that longline data alone had very low recapture rates while acoustic telemetry data for the same time period resulted in at least tenfold higher recapture rates. The apparent survival estimates were similar for the two datasets but the acoustic telemetry data showed much greater precision and enabled apparent survival parameter estimation for one dataset, which was inestimable using fishing data alone. Combined acoustic telemetry and longline data were incorporated into Jolly-Seber models using a Monte Carlo simulation approach. Abundance estimates were comparable to those with longline data only; however, the inclusion of acoustic telemetry data increased precision in the estimates. We conclude that acoustic telemetry is a useful tool for incorporating in capture-mark-recapture studies in the marine environment. Future studies should consider the application of acoustic telemetry within this framework when setting up the study design and sampling program.

  15. Estimating population abundance and mapping distribution of wintering sea ducks in coastal waters of the mid-Atlantic

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Koneff, M.D.; Royle, J. Andrew; Forsell, D.J.; Wortham, J.S.; Boomer, G.S.; Perry, M.C.

    2005-01-01

    Survey design for wintering scoters (Melanitta sp.) and other sea ducks that occur in offshore waters is challenging because these species have large ranges, are subject to distributional shifts among years and within a season, and can occur in aggregations. Interest in winter sea duck population abundance surveys has grown in recent years. This interest stems from concern over the population status of some sea ducks, limitations of extant breeding waterfowl survey programs in North America and logistical challenges and costs of conducting surveys in northern breeding regions, high winter area philopatry in some species and potential conservation implications, and increasing concern over offshore development and other threats to sea duck wintering habitats. The efficiency and practicality of statistically-rigorous monitoring strategies for mobile, aggregated wintering sea duck populations have not been sufficiently investigated. This study evaluated a 2-phase adaptive stratified strip transect sampling plan to estimate wintering population size of scoters, long-tailed ducks (Clangua hyemalis), and other sea ducks and provide information on distribution. The sampling plan results in an optimal allocation of a fixed sampling effort among offshore strata in the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast region. Phase I transect selection probabilities were based on historic distribution and abundance data, while Phase 2 selection probabilities were based on observations made during Phase 1 flights. Distance sampling methods were used to estimate detection rates. Environmental variables thought to affect detection rates were recorded during the survey and post-stratification and covariate modeling were investigated to reduce the effect of heterogeneity on detection estimation. We assessed cost-precision tradeoffs under a number of fixed-cost sampling scenarios using Monte Carlo simulation. We discuss advantages and limitations of this sampling design for estimating wintering sea duck

  16. RNA-Seq Alignment to Individualized Genomes Improves Transcript Abundance Estimates in Multiparent Populations

    PubMed Central

    Munger, Steven C.; Raghupathy, Narayanan; Choi, Kwangbom; Simons, Allen K.; Gatti, Daniel M.; Hinerfeld, Douglas A.; Svenson, Karen L.; Keller, Mark P.; Attie, Alan D.; Hibbs, Matthew A.; Graber, Joel H.; Chesler, Elissa J.; Churchill, Gary A.

    2014-01-01

    Massively parallel RNA sequencing (RNA-seq) has yielded a wealth of new insights into transcriptional regulation. A first step in the analysis of RNA-seq data is the alignment of short sequence reads to a common reference genome or transcriptome. Genetic variants that distinguish individual genomes from the reference sequence can cause reads to be misaligned, resulting in biased estimates of transcript abundance. Fine-tuning of read alignment algorithms does not correct this problem. We have developed Seqnature software to construct individualized diploid genomes and transcriptomes for multiparent populations and have implemented a complete analysis pipeline that incorporates other existing software tools. We demonstrate in simulated and real data sets that alignment to individualized transcriptomes increases read mapping accuracy, improves estimation of transcript abundance, and enables the direct estimation of allele-specific expression. Moreover, when applied to expression QTL mapping we find that our individualized alignment strategy corrects false-positive linkage signals and unmasks hidden associations. We recommend the use of individualized diploid genomes over reference sequence alignment for all applications of high-throughput sequencing technology in genetically diverse populations. PMID:25236449

  17. Fishery-independent surface abundance and density estimates of swordfish (Xiphias gladius) from aerial surveys in the Central Mediterranean Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lauriano, Giancarlo; Pierantonio, Nino; Kell, Laurence; Cañadas, Ana; Donovan, Gregory; Panigada, Simone

    2017-07-01

    Fishery-independent surface density and abundance estimates for the swordfish were obtained through aerial surveys carried out over a large portion of the Central Mediterranean, implementing distance sampling methodologies. Both design- and model-based abundance and density showed an uneven occurrence of the species throughout the study area, with clusters of higher density occurring near converging fronts, strong thermoclines and/or underwater features. The surface abundance was estimated for the Pelagos Sanctuary for Mediterranean Marine Mammals in the summer of 2009 (n=1152; 95%CI=669.0-1981.0; %CV=27.64), the Sea of Sardinia, the Pelagos Sanctuary and the Central Tyrrhenian Sea for the summer of 2010 (n=3401; 95%CI=2067.0-5596.0; %CV=25.51), and for the Southern Tyrrhenian Sea during the winter months of 2010-2011 (n=1228; 95%CI=578-2605; %CV=38.59). The Mediterranean swordfish stock deserves special attention in light of the heavy fishing pressures. Furthermore, the unreliability of fishery-related data has, to date, hampered our ability to effectively inform long-term conservation in the Mediterranean Region. Considering that the European countries have committed to protect the resources and all the marine-related economic and social dynamics upon which they depend, the information presented here constitute useful data towards the international legal requirements under the Marine Strategy Framework Directory, the Common Fisheries Policy, the Habitats and Species Directive and the Directive on Maritime Spatial Planning, among the others.

  18. Multidimensional metrics for estimating phage abundance, distribution, gene density, and sequence coverage in metagenomes

    PubMed Central

    Aziz, Ramy K.; Dwivedi, Bhakti; Akhter, Sajia; Breitbart, Mya; Edwards, Robert A.

    2015-01-01

    Phages are the most abundant biological entities on Earth and play major ecological roles, yet the current sequenced phage genomes do not adequately represent their diversity, and little is known about the abundance and distribution of these sequenced genomes in nature. Although the study of phage ecology has benefited tremendously from the emergence of metagenomic sequencing, a systematic survey of phage genes and genomes in various ecosystems is still lacking, and fundamental questions about phage biology, lifestyle, and ecology remain unanswered. To address these questions and improve comparative analysis of phages in different metagenomes, we screened a core set of publicly available metagenomic samples for sequences related to completely sequenced phages using the web tool, Phage Eco-Locator. We then adopted and deployed an array of mathematical and statistical metrics for a multidimensional estimation of the abundance and distribution of phage genes and genomes in various ecosystems. Experiments using those metrics individually showed their usefulness in emphasizing the pervasive, yet uneven, distribution of known phage sequences in environmental metagenomes. Using these metrics in combination allowed us to resolve phage genomes into clusters that correlated with their genotypes and taxonomic classes as well as their ecological properties. We propose adding this set of metrics to current metaviromic analysis pipelines, where they can provide insight regarding phage mosaicism, habitat specificity, and evolution. PMID:26005436

  19. Multidimensional metrics for estimating phage abundance, distribution, gene density, and sequence coverage in metagenomes

    DOE PAGES

    Aziz, Ramy K.; Dwivedi, Bhakti; Akhter, Sajia; ...

    2015-05-08

    Phages are the most abundant biological entities on Earth and play major ecological roles, yet the current sequenced phage genomes do not adequately represent their diversity, and little is known about the abundance and distribution of these sequenced genomes in nature. Although the study of phage ecology has benefited tremendously from the emergence of metagenomic sequencing, a systematic survey of phage genes and genomes in various ecosystems is still lacking, and fundamental questions about phage biology, lifestyle, and ecology remain unanswered. To address these questions and improve comparative analysis of phages in different metagenomes, we screened a core set ofmore » publicly available metagenomic samples for sequences related to completely sequenced phages using the web tool, Phage Eco-Locator. We then adopted and deployed an array of mathematical and statistical metrics for a multidimensional estimation of the abundance and distribution of phage genes and genomes in various ecosystems. Experiments using those metrics individually showed their usefulness in emphasizing the pervasive, yet uneven, distribution of known phage sequences in environmental metagenomes. Using these metrics in combination allowed us to resolve phage genomes into clusters that correlated with their genotypes and taxonomic classes as well as their ecological properties. By adding this set of metrics to current metaviromic analysis pipelines, where they can provide insight regarding phage mosaicism, habitat specificity, and evolution.« less

  20. Multidimensional metrics for estimating phage abundance, distribution, gene density, and sequence coverage in metagenomes

    SciTech Connect

    Aziz, Ramy K.; Dwivedi, Bhakti; Akhter, Sajia

    Phages are the most abundant biological entities on Earth and play major ecological roles, yet the current sequenced phage genomes do not adequately represent their diversity, and little is known about the abundance and distribution of these sequenced genomes in nature. Although the study of phage ecology has benefited tremendously from the emergence of metagenomic sequencing, a systematic survey of phage genes and genomes in various ecosystems is still lacking, and fundamental questions about phage biology, lifestyle, and ecology remain unanswered. To address these questions and improve comparative analysis of phages in different metagenomes, we screened a core set ofmore » publicly available metagenomic samples for sequences related to completely sequenced phages using the web tool, Phage Eco-Locator. We then adopted and deployed an array of mathematical and statistical metrics for a multidimensional estimation of the abundance and distribution of phage genes and genomes in various ecosystems. Experiments using those metrics individually showed their usefulness in emphasizing the pervasive, yet uneven, distribution of known phage sequences in environmental metagenomes. Using these metrics in combination allowed us to resolve phage genomes into clusters that correlated with their genotypes and taxonomic classes as well as their ecological properties. By adding this set of metrics to current metaviromic analysis pipelines, where they can provide insight regarding phage mosaicism, habitat specificity, and evolution.« less

  1. Estimating species - area relationships by modeling abundance and frequency subject to incomplete sampling.

    PubMed

    Yamaura, Yuichi; Connor, Edward F; Royle, J Andrew; Itoh, Katsuo; Sato, Kiyoshi; Taki, Hisatomo; Mishima, Yoshio

    2016-07-01

    Models and data used to describe species-area relationships confound sampling with ecological process as they fail to acknowledge that estimates of species richness arise due to sampling. This compromises our ability to make ecological inferences from and about species-area relationships. We develop and illustrate hierarchical community models of abundance and frequency to estimate species richness. The models we propose separate sampling from ecological processes by explicitly accounting for the fact that sampled patches are seldom completely covered by sampling plots and that individuals present in the sampling plots are imperfectly detected. We propose a multispecies abundance model in which community assembly is treated as the summation of an ensemble of species-level Poisson processes and estimate patch-level species richness as a derived parameter. We use sampling process models appropriate for specific survey methods. We propose a multispecies frequency model that treats the number of plots in which a species occurs as a binomial process. We illustrate these models using data collected in surveys of early-successional bird species and plants in young forest plantation patches. Results indicate that only mature forest plant species deviated from the constant density hypothesis, but the null model suggested that the deviations were too small to alter the form of species-area relationships. Nevertheless, results from simulations clearly show that the aggregate pattern of individual species density-area relationships and occurrence probability-area relationships can alter the form of species-area relationships. The plant community model estimated that only half of the species present in the regional species pool were encountered during the survey. The modeling framework we propose explicitly accounts for sampling processes so that ecological processes can be examined free of sampling artefacts. Our modeling approach is extensible and could be applied to a

  2. Estimating species – area relationships by modeling abundance and frequency subject to incomplete sampling

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Yamaura, Yuichi; Connor, Edward F.; Royle, Andy; Itoh, Katsuo; Sato, Kiyoshi; Taki, Hisatomo; Mishima, Yoshio

    2016-01-01

    Models and data used to describe species–area relationships confound sampling with ecological process as they fail to acknowledge that estimates of species richness arise due to sampling. This compromises our ability to make ecological inferences from and about species–area relationships. We develop and illustrate hierarchical community models of abundance and frequency to estimate species richness. The models we propose separate sampling from ecological processes by explicitly accounting for the fact that sampled patches are seldom completely covered by sampling plots and that individuals present in the sampling plots are imperfectly detected. We propose a multispecies abundance model in which community assembly is treated as the summation of an ensemble of species-level Poisson processes and estimate patch-level species richness as a derived parameter. We use sampling process models appropriate for specific survey methods. We propose a multispecies frequency model that treats the number of plots in which a species occurs as a binomial process. We illustrate these models using data collected in surveys of early-successional bird species and plants in young forest plantation patches. Results indicate that only mature forest plant species deviated from the constant density hypothesis, but the null model suggested that the deviations were too small to alter the form of species–area relationships. Nevertheless, results from simulations clearly show that the aggregate pattern of individual species density–area relationships and occurrence probability–area relationships can alter the form of species–area relationships. The plant community model estimated that only half of the species present in the regional species pool were encountered during the survey. The modeling framework we propose explicitly accounts for sampling processes so that ecological processes can be examined free of sampling artefacts. Our modeling approach is extensible and could be applied

  3. Assessment of distribution and abundance estimates for Mariana swiftlets (Aerodramus bartschi) via examination of survey methods

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Johnson, Nathan C.; Haig, Susan M.; Mosher, Stephen M.

    2018-01-01

    We described past and present distribution and abundance data to evaluate the status of the endangered Mariana Swiftlet (Aerodramus bartschi), a little-known echolocating cave swiftlet that currently inhabits 3 of 5 formerly occupied islands in the Mariana archipelago. We then evaluated the survey methods used to attain these estimates via fieldwork carried out on an introduced population of Mariana Swiftlets on the island of O'ahu, Hawaiian Islands, to derive better methods for future surveys. We estimate the range-wide population of Mariana Swiftlets to be 5,704 individuals occurring in 15 caves on Saipan, Aguiguan, and Guam in the Marianas; and 142 individuals occupying one tunnel on O'ahu. We further confirm that swiftlets have been extirpated from Rota and Tinian and have declined on Aguiguan. Swiftlets have remained relatively stable on Guam and Saipan in recent years. Our assessment of survey methods used for Mariana Swiftlets suggests overestimates depending on the technique used. We suggest the use of night vision technology and other changes to more accurately reflect their distribution, abundance, and status.

  4. Estimating cetacean density and abundance in the Central and Western Mediterranean Sea through aerial surveys: Implications for management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Panigada, Simone; Lauriano, Giancarlo; Donovan, Greg; Pierantonio, Nino; Cañadas, Ana; Vázquez, José Antonio; Burt, Louise

    2017-07-01

    Systematic, effective monitoring of animal population parameters underpins successful conservation strategy and wildlife management, but it is often neglected in many regions, including much of the Mediterranean Sea. Nonetheless, a series of systematic multispecies aerial surveys was carried out in the seas around Italy to gather important baseline information on cetacean occurrence, distribution and abundance. The monitored areas included the Pelagos Sanctuary, the Tyrrhenian Sea, portions of the Seas of Corsica and Sardinia, the Ionian Seas as well as the Gulf of Taranto. Overall, approximately 48,000 km were flown in either spring, summer and winter between 2009-2014, covering an area of 444,621 km2. The most commonly observed species were the striped dolphin and the fin whale, with 975 and 83 recorded sightings, respectively. Other sighted cetacean species were the common bottlenose dolphin, the Risso's dolphin, the sperm whale, the pilot whale and the Cuvier's beaked whale. Uncorrected model- and design-based estimates of density and abundance for striped dolphins and fin whales were produced, resulting in a best estimate (model-based) of around 95,000 striped dolphins (CV=11.6%; 95% CI=92,900-120,300) occurring in the Pelagos Sanctuary, Central Tyrrhenian and Western Seas of Corsica and Sardinia combined area in summer 2010. Estimates were also obtained for each individual study region and year. An initial attempt to estimate perception bias for striped dolphins is also provided. The preferred summer 2010 uncorrected best estimate (design-based) for the same areas for fin whales was around 665 (CV=33.1%; 95% CI=350-1260). Estimates are also provided for the individual study regions and years. The results represent baseline data to develop efficient, long-term, systematic monitoring programmes, essential to evaluate trends, as required by a number of national and international frameworks, and stress the need to ensure that surveys are undertaken regularly and

  5. Reconciling LCROSS and Orbital Neutron Water Abundance Estimates in Cabeus Crater

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Elphic, Richard; Teodoro, Luis F.; Eke, Vincent R.; Paige, David A.; Siegler, Matthew A.; Colaprete, Anthony

    2011-01-01

    The Lunar Prospector Neutron Spectrometer (LPNS) first revealed Cabeus crater (84.9 deg S, 35.5degW) as having the highest inferred hydrogen on the Moon. Because of the broad LPNS footprint (approximately 40 km FWHM), the apparent peak water-equivalent hydrogen (WEH) concentration is only approximately 0.25 wt%, but could be much higher in smaller areas than the spectrometer footprint. Earlier image reconstruction work suggested that areas within permanent shadow have abundances approximately 1 wt% WEH. However, the LCROSS impact yielded total water estimates, ice plus vapor, of between 3 and 10 wt%. The large disagreement between LCROSS and apparent orbital values imply that either the ice is buried, by perhaps as much as 50 to 100 cm; or the ice distribution within Cabeus is spatially inhomogeneous, or both. Modeling reveals that the areal extent of a "shallow permafrost zone" is far greater than the area of permanent shadow. Ice can be virtually stable for billions of years within a few tens of centimeters of the surface in these areas. However, the LCROSS impact took place in an area of permanent shadow. If stably-trapped volatiles can be found in locales that receive occasional, oblique sunlight, landed missions may target these sites and eventual resource exploitation may be done more easily. Are orbital neutron data consistent with areally-extensive, volatile-rich cold traps? Orbital epithermal neutron data over the northern half of Cabeus (near the LCROSS impact site) are consistent with 0.2 wt% WEH or less in the "permafrost zone" near the crater. On the other hand, pixon reconstructions that confine the hydrogen enhancements to permanent shadow result in higher abundance estimates -- around 1 wt% if homogeneously mixed. But if the PSR abundance is increased to 10 wt%, consistent with the sum of all H-bearing compounds seen by LCROSS, a much larger-than-observed reduction in neutron count rate would be seen from orbit. It is likely that volatiles are

  6. Fitting statistical distributions to sea duck count data: implications for survey design and abundance estimation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Zipkin, Elise F.; Leirness, Jeffery B.; Kinlan, Brian P.; O'Connell, Allan F.; Silverman, Emily D.

    2014-01-01

    Determining appropriate statistical distributions for modeling animal count data is important for accurate estimation of abundance, distribution, and trends. In the case of sea ducks along the U.S. Atlantic coast, managers want to estimate local and regional abundance to detect and track population declines, to define areas of high and low use, and to predict the impact of future habitat change on populations. In this paper, we used a modified marked point process to model survey data that recorded flock sizes of Common eiders, Long-tailed ducks, and Black, Surf, and White-winged scoters. The data come from an experimental aerial survey, conducted by the United States Fish & Wildlife Service (USFWS) Division of Migratory Bird Management, during which east-west transects were flown along the Atlantic Coast from Maine to Florida during the winters of 2009–2011. To model the number of flocks per transect (the points), we compared the fit of four statistical distributions (zero-inflated Poisson, zero-inflated geometric, zero-inflated negative binomial and negative binomial) to data on the number of species-specific sea duck flocks that were recorded for each transect flown. To model the flock sizes (the marks), we compared the fit of flock size data for each species to seven statistical distributions: positive Poisson, positive negative binomial, positive geometric, logarithmic, discretized lognormal, zeta and Yule–Simon. Akaike’s Information Criterion and Vuong’s closeness tests indicated that the negative binomial and discretized lognormal were the best distributions for all species for the points and marks, respectively. These findings have important implications for estimating sea duck abundances as the discretized lognormal is a more skewed distribution than the Poisson and negative binomial, which are frequently used to model avian counts; the lognormal is also less heavy-tailed than the power law distributions (e.g., zeta and Yule–Simon), which are

  7. Accounting for non-independent detection when estimating abundance of organisms with a Bayesian approach

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Martin, Julien; Royle, J. Andrew; MacKenzie, Darryl I.; Edwards, Holly H.; Kery, Marc; Gardner, Beth

    2011-01-01

    Summary 1. Binomial mixture models use repeated count data to estimate abundance. They are becoming increasingly popular because they provide a simple and cost-effective way to account for imperfect detection. However, these models assume that individuals are detected independently of each other. This assumption may often be violated in the field. For instance, manatees (Trichechus manatus latirostris) may surface in turbid water (i.e. become available for detection during aerial surveys) in a correlated manner (i.e. in groups). However, correlated behaviour, affecting the non-independence of individual detections, may also be relevant in other systems (e.g. correlated patterns of singing in birds and amphibians). 2. We extend binomial mixture models to account for correlated behaviour and therefore to account for non-independent detection of individuals. We simulated correlated behaviour using beta-binomial random variables. Our approach can be used to simultaneously estimate abundance, detection probability and a correlation parameter. 3. Fitting binomial mixture models to data that followed a beta-binomial distribution resulted in an overestimation of abundance even for moderate levels of correlation. In contrast, the beta-binomial mixture model performed considerably better in our simulation scenarios. We also present a goodness-of-fit procedure to evaluate the fit of beta-binomial mixture models. 4. We illustrate our approach by fitting both binomial and beta-binomial mixture models to aerial survey data of manatees in Florida. We found that the binomial mixture model did not fit the data, whereas there was no evidence of lack of fit for the beta-binomial mixture model. This example helps illustrate the importance of using simulations and assessing goodness-of-fit when analysing ecological data with N-mixture models. Indeed, both the simulations and the goodness-of-fit procedure highlighted the limitations of the standard binomial mixture model for aerial

  8. Estimates of Abundance and Trend of Chilean Blue Whales off Isla de Chiloé, Chile.

    PubMed

    Galletti Vernazzani, Barbara; Jackson, Jennifer A; Cabrera, Elsa; Carlson, Carole A; Brownell, Robert L

    2017-01-01

    Since 1970, blue whales (Balaenoptera musculus) have been seen feeding in the waters off southern Chile during the summer and autumn (December to May). Investigation of the genetic, acoustic and morphological characteristics of these blue whales shows that they are a distinct but unnamed subspecies, called the Chilean blue whales. Photo-identification surveys have been conducted in the waters off northwestern Isla Grande de Chiloé, southern Chile from 2004-2012 and Isla Chañaral, central Chile in 2012. Over this time, 1,070 blue whales were encountered yielding, after photo-quality control, 318 and 267 unique photographs of the left and right side of the flank respectively. Using mark-recapture analysis of left and right side photographs collected from Isla Grande de Chiloé (2004-2012), open population models estimate that ~570-760 whales are feeding seasonally in this region. POPAN superpopulation abundance estimates for the same feeding ground in 2012 are 762 (95% confidence intervals, CI = 638-933) and 570 (95% CI 475-705) for left and right side datasets respectively, very similar to results from closed population models. Estimates of trend revealed strong variation in abundance, peaking in 2009 and [suggesting] fluctuating use in the survey area over time, likely related to the density of their prey. High inter-annual return rates suggest a degree of site-fidelity of individuals to Isla Grande de Chiloé and that the number of whales using this feeding ground is relatively small.

  9. Estimates of Abundance and Trend of Chilean Blue Whales off Isla de Chiloé, Chile

    PubMed Central

    Cabrera, Elsa; Carlson, Carole A.; Brownell, Robert L.

    2017-01-01

    Since 1970, blue whales (Balaenoptera musculus) have been seen feeding in the waters off southern Chile during the summer and autumn (December to May). Investigation of the genetic, acoustic and morphological characteristics of these blue whales shows that they are a distinct but unnamed subspecies, called the Chilean blue whales. Photo-identification surveys have been conducted in the waters off northwestern Isla Grande de Chiloé, southern Chile from 2004–2012 and Isla Chañaral, central Chile in 2012. Over this time, 1,070 blue whales were encountered yielding, after photo-quality control, 318 and 267 unique photographs of the left and right side of the flank respectively. Using mark-recapture analysis of left and right side photographs collected from Isla Grande de Chiloé (2004–2012), open population models estimate that ~570–760 whales are feeding seasonally in this region. POPAN superpopulation abundance estimates for the same feeding ground in 2012 are 762 (95% confidence intervals, CI = 638–933) and 570 (95% CI 475–705) for left and right side datasets respectively, very similar to results from closed population models. Estimates of trend revealed strong variation in abundance, peaking in 2009 and [suggesting] fluctuating use in the survey area over time, likely related to the density of their prey. High inter-annual return rates suggest a degree of site-fidelity of individuals to Isla Grande de Chiloé and that the number of whales using this feeding ground is relatively small. PMID:28081160

  10. A spatially explicit estimate of the prewhaling abundance of the endangered North Atlantic right whale.

    PubMed

    Monsarrat, Sophie; Pennino, M Grazia; Smith, Tim D; Reeves, Randall R; Meynard, Christine N; Kaplan, David M; Rodrigues, Ana S L

    2016-08-01

    The North Atlantic right whale (NARW) (Eubalaena glacialis) is one of the world's most threatened whales. It came close to extinction after nearly a millennium of exploitation and currently persists as a population of only approximately 500 individuals. Setting appropriate conservation targets for this species requires an understanding of its historical population size, as a baseline for measuring levels of depletion and progress toward recovery. This is made difficult by the scarcity of records over this species' long whaling history. We sought to estimate the preexploitation population size of the North Atlantic right whale and understand how this species was distributed across its range. We used a spatially explicit data set on historical catches of North Pacific right whales (NPRWs) (Eubalaena japonica) to model the relationship between right whale relative density and the environment during the summer feeding season. Assuming the 2 right whale species select similar environments, we projected this model to the North Atlantic to predict how the relative abundance of NARWs varied across their range. We calibrated these relative abundances with estimates of the NPRW total prewhaling population size to obtain high and low estimates for the overall NARW population size prior to exploitation. The model predicted 9,075-21,328 right whales in the North Atlantic. The current NARW population is thus <6% of the historical North Atlantic carrying capacity and has enormous potential for recovery. According to the model, in June-September NARWs concentrated in 2 main feeding areas: east of the Grand Banks of Newfoundland and in the Norwegian Sea. These 2 areas may become important in the future as feeding grounds and may already be used more regularly by this endangered species than is thought. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.

  11. Estimating forest species abundance through linear unmixing of CHRIS/PROBA imagery

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stagakis, Stavros; Vanikiotis, Theofilos; Sykioti, Olga

    2016-09-01

    The advancing technology of hyperspectral remote sensing offers the opportunity of accurate land cover characterization of complex natural environments. In this study, a linear spectral unmixing algorithm that incorporates a novel hierarchical Bayesian approach (BI-ICE) was applied on two spatially and temporally adjacent CHRIS/PROBA images over a forest in North Pindos National Park (Epirus, Greece). The scope is to investigate the potential of this algorithm to discriminate two different forest species (i.e. beech - Fagus sylvatica, pine - Pinus nigra) and produce accurate species-specific abundance maps. The unmixing results were evaluated in uniformly distributed plots across the test site using measured fractions of each species derived by very high resolution aerial orthophotos. Landsat-8 images were also used to produce a conventional discrete-type classification map of the test site. This map was used to define the exact borders of the test site and compare the thematic information of the two mapping approaches (discrete vs abundance mapping). The required ground truth information, regarding training and validation of the applied mapping methodologies, was collected during a field campaign across the study site. Abundance estimates reached very good overall accuracy (R2 = 0.98, RMSE = 0.06). The most significant source of error in our results was due to the shadowing effects that were very intense in some areas of the test site due to the low solar elevation during CHRIS acquisitions. It is also demonstrated that the two mapping approaches are in accordance across pure and dense forest areas, but the conventional classification map fails to describe the natural spatial gradients of each species and the actual species mixture across the test site. Overall, the BI-ICE algorithm presented increased potential to unmix challenging objects with high spectral similarity, such as different vegetation species, under real and not optimum acquisition conditions. Its

  12. Use of miniroutes and Breeding Bird Survey data to estimate abundance

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Robbins, C.S.; Dowell, B.A.

    1986-01-01

    1. Information on relative abundance is easily obtained and adds greatly to the value of an atlas project. 2. The Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) provides annual counts (birds per 50 roadside stops) that can be used to: (1) map relative abundance by physiographic region within a state or province, (2) map relative abundance on a more local scale by using results from individual routes, or (3) compute estimates of total state populations of a species. Where BBS coverage is too scanty to permit mapping, extra temporary routes may be established to provide additional information for the atlas. Or, if continuing coverage is anticipated, additional permanent random routes can be assigned by the U. S. Fish and Wildlife Service. 3. Miniroutes of 15 or more stops can be established in individual atlas blocks to serve the dual purposes of providing efficient uniform coverage and providing information on relative abundance. Miniroutes can also be extracted from BBS routes to supplement special atlas coverage, or vice versa; but the data from the BBS will not be confined to individual atlas blocks. 4. Advantages of 15- or 20-stop Miniroutes over 25-stop Miniroutes are several: the ability to do two per morning and the lower variability among M1niroute results. Also, many 5-km atlas blocks do not have enough secondary roads to accommodate 25 stops at one-half mile intervals. Disadvantages of 15-stop Miniroutes starting at sunrise are the smaller numbers of birds recorded, missing of the very productive dawn chorus period (Robbins 1981), and missing crepuscular species (rails, woodcock, owls, and goatsuckers). 5. Advantages of recording counts of individuals rather than checking only species presence at Miniroute stops are that: (1) relative abundance can be mapped rather than frequency only (a measure of frequency is already available in the number of blocks recording each species); (2) population change can be measured over a period of years when the next atlas is made; and (3

  13. A sampling design and model for estimating abundance of Nile crocodiles while accounting for heterogeneity of detectability of multiple observers

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Shirley, Matthew H.; Dorazio, Robert M.; Abassery, Ekramy; Elhady, Amr A.; Mekki, Mohammed S.; Asran, Hosni H.

    2012-01-01

    As part of the development of a management program for Nile crocodiles in Lake Nasser, Egypt, we used a dependent double-observer sampling protocol with multiple observers to compute estimates of population size. To analyze the data, we developed a hierarchical model that allowed us to assess variation in detection probabilities among observers and survey dates, as well as account for variation in crocodile abundance among sites and habitats. We conducted surveys from July 2008-June 2009 in 15 areas of Lake Nasser that were representative of 3 main habitat categories. During these surveys, we sampled 1,086 km of lake shore wherein we detected 386 crocodiles. Analysis of the data revealed significant variability in both inter- and intra-observer detection probabilities. Our raw encounter rate was 0.355 crocodiles/km. When we accounted for observer effects and habitat, we estimated a surface population abundance of 2,581 (2,239-2,987, 95% credible intervals) crocodiles in Lake Nasser. Our results underscore the importance of well-trained, experienced monitoring personnel in order to decrease heterogeneity in intra-observer detection probability and to better detect changes in the population based on survey indices. This study will assist the Egyptian government establish a monitoring program as an integral part of future crocodile harvest activities in Lake Nasser

  14. Re-constructing historical Adélie penguin abundance estimates by retrospectively accounting for detection bias.

    PubMed

    Southwell, Colin; Emmerson, Louise; Newbery, Kym; McKinlay, John; Kerry, Knowles; Woehler, Eric; Ensor, Paul

    2015-01-01

    Seabirds and other land-breeding marine predators are considered to be useful and practical indicators of the state of marine ecosystems because of their dependence on marine prey and the accessibility of their populations at breeding colonies. Historical counts of breeding populations of these higher-order marine predators are one of few data sources available for inferring past change in marine ecosystems. However, historical abundance estimates derived from these population counts may be subject to unrecognised bias and uncertainty because of variable attendance of birds at breeding colonies and variable timing of past population surveys. We retrospectively accounted for detection bias in historical abundance estimates of the colonial, land-breeding Adélie penguin through an analysis of 222 historical abundance estimates from 81 breeding sites in east Antarctica. The published abundance estimates were de-constructed to retrieve the raw count data and then re-constructed by applying contemporary adjustment factors obtained from remotely operating time-lapse cameras. The re-construction process incorporated spatial and temporal variation in phenology and attendance by using data from cameras deployed at multiple sites over multiple years and propagating this uncertainty through to the final revised abundance estimates. Our re-constructed abundance estimates were consistently higher and more uncertain than published estimates. The re-constructed estimates alter the conclusions reached for some sites in east Antarctica in recent assessments of long-term Adélie penguin population change. Our approach is applicable to abundance data for a wide range of colonial, land-breeding marine species including other penguin species, flying seabirds and marine mammals.

  15. Estimating Mudpuppy (Necturus maculosus) abundance in the Lamoille River, Vermont, USA

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Chellman, Isaac C.; Parrish, Donna; Donovan, Therese M.

    2017-01-01

    The Mudpuppy (Necturus maculosus) is classified as a Species of Greatest Conservation Need by the state of Vermont. There is concern regarding status of populations in the Lake Champlain basin because of habitat alteration and potential effects of 3-trifluromethyl-4-nitrophenol (TFM), a chemical used to control Sea Lamprey (Petromyzon marinus). The purpose of our research was to assess Mudpuppy capture methods and abundance in the Lamoille River, Vermont, USA. We sampled Mudpuppies under a mark-recapture framework, using modified, baited minnow traps set during two winter-spring periods. We marked each Mudpuppy with a passive integrated transponder (PIT) tag and released individuals after collecting morphological measurements. We collected 80 individuals during 2,581 trap days in 2008–2009 (year 1), and 81 individuals during 3,072 trap days in 2009–2010 (year 2). We estimated abundance from spring trapping periods in 2009 and 2010, during which capture rates were sufficient for analysis. Capture probability was low (< 0.04), but highest following precipitation events in spring, during periods of higher river flow, when water temperatures were approximately 3 to 6° C. During October 2009, management agencies treated the Lamoille River with TFM. Surveyors recovered more than 500 dead Mudpuppies during the post-treatment assessment. Overall, Mudpuppy captures did not change between sampling periods; however, we captured fewer females during year 2 compared to year 1, and the sex ratio changed from 0.79:1 (M:F) during year 1 to 3:1 (M:F) during year 2. Our data may help wildlife managers assess population status of Mudpuppies in conjunction with fisheries management techniques.

  16. Acoustic estimates of abundance and distribution of spawning lake trout on Sheboygan Reef in Lake Michigan

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Warner, D.M.; Claramunt, R.M.; Janssen, J.; Jude, D.J.; Wattrus, N.

    2009-01-01

    Efforts to restore self-sustaining lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) populations in the Laurentian Great Lakes have had widespread success in Lake Superior; but in other Great Lakes, populations of lake trout are maintained by stocking. Recruitment bottlenecks may be present at a number of stages of the reproduction process. To study eggs and fry, it is necessary to identify spawning locations, which is difficult in deep water. Acoustic sampling can be used to rapidly locate aggregations of fish (like spawning lake trout), describe their distribution, and estimate their abundance. To assess these capabilities for application to lake trout, we conducted an acoustic survey covering 22 km2 at Sheboygan Reef, a deep reef (<40 m summit) in southern Lake Michigan during fall 2005. Data collected with remotely operated vehicles (ROV) confirmed that fish were large lake trout, that lake trout were 1–2 m above bottom, and that spawning took place over specific habitat. Lake trout density exhibited a high degree of spatial structure (autocorrelation) up to a range of ~190 m, and highest lake trout and egg densities occurred over rough substrates (rubble and cobble) at the shallowest depths sampled (36–42 m). Mean lake trout density in the area surveyed (~2190 ha) was 5.8 fish/ha and the area surveyed contained an estimated 9500–16,000 large lake trout. Spatial aggregation in lake trout densities, similarity of depths and substrates at which high lake trout and egg densities occurred, and relatively low uncertainty in the lake trout density estimate indicate that acoustic sampling can be a useful complement to other sampling tools used in lake trout restoration research.

  17. [Study of spatial stratified sampling strategy of Oncomelania hupensis snail survey based on plant abundance].

    PubMed

    Xun-Ping, W; An, Z

    2017-07-27

    Objective To optimize and simplify the survey method of Oncomelania hupensis snails in marshland endemic regions of schistosomiasis, so as to improve the precision, efficiency and economy of the snail survey. Methods A snail sampling strategy (Spatial Sampling Scenario of Oncomelania based on Plant Abundance, SOPA) which took the plant abundance as auxiliary variable was explored and an experimental study in a 50 m×50 m plot in a marshland in the Poyang Lake region was performed. Firstly, the push broom surveyed data was stratified into 5 layers by the plant abundance data; then, the required numbers of optimal sampling points of each layer through Hammond McCullagh equation were calculated; thirdly, every sample point in the line with the Multiple Directional Interpolation (MDI) placement scheme was pinpointed; and finally, the comparison study among the outcomes of the spatial random sampling strategy, the traditional systematic sampling method, the spatial stratified sampling method, Sandwich spatial sampling and inference and SOPA was performed. Results The method (SOPA) proposed in this study had the minimal absolute error of 0.213 8; and the traditional systematic sampling method had the largest estimate, and the absolute error was 0.924 4. Conclusion The snail sampling strategy (SOPA) proposed in this study obtains the higher estimation accuracy than the other four methods.

  18. \\Space: A new code to estimate \\temp, \\logg, and elemental abundances

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boeche, C.

    2016-09-01

    \\Space is a FORTRAN95 code that derives stellar parameters and elemental abundances from stellar spectra. To derive these parameters, \\Space does not measure equivalent widths of lines nor it uses templates of synthetic spectra, but it employs a new method based on a library of General Curve-Of-Growths. To date \\Space works on the wavelength range 5212-6860 Å and 8400-8921 Å, and at the spectral resolution R=2000-20000. Extensions of these limits are possible. \\Space is a highly automated code suitable for application to large spectroscopic surveys. A web front end to this service is publicly available at http://dc.g-vo.org/SP_ACE together with the library and the binary code.

  19. Accounting for Subgroup Structure in Line-Transect Abundance Estimates of False Killer Whales (Pseudorca crassidens) in Hawaiian Waters

    PubMed Central

    Bradford, Amanda L.; Forney, Karin A.; Oleson, Erin M.; Barlow, Jay

    2014-01-01

    For biological populations that form aggregations (or clusters) of individuals, cluster size is an important parameter in line-transect abundance estimation and should be accurately measured. Cluster size in cetaceans has traditionally been represented as the total number of individuals in a group, but group size may be underestimated if group members are spatially diffuse. Groups of false killer whales (Pseudorca crassidens) can comprise numerous subgroups that are dispersed over tens of kilometers, leading to a spatial mismatch between a detected group and the theoretical framework of line-transect analysis. Three stocks of false killer whales are found within the U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone of the Hawaiian Islands (Hawaiian EEZ): an insular main Hawaiian Islands stock, a pelagic stock, and a Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (NWHI) stock. A ship-based line-transect survey of the Hawaiian EEZ was conducted in the summer and fall of 2010, resulting in six systematic-effort visual sightings of pelagic (n = 5) and NWHI (n = 1) false killer whale groups. The maximum number and spatial extent of subgroups per sighting was 18 subgroups and 35 km, respectively. These sightings were combined with data from similar previous surveys and analyzed within the conventional line-transect estimation framework. The detection function, mean cluster size, and encounter rate were estimated separately to appropriately incorporate data collected using different methods. Unlike previous line-transect analyses of cetaceans, subgroups were treated as the analytical cluster instead of groups because subgroups better conform to the specifications of line-transect theory. Bootstrap values (n = 5,000) of the line-transect parameters were randomly combined to estimate the variance of stock-specific abundance estimates. Hawai’i pelagic and NWHI false killer whales were estimated to number 1,552 (CV = 0.66; 95% CI = 479–5,030) and 552 (CV = 1.09; 95% CI = 97–3

  20. Accounting for subgroup structure in line-transect abundance estimates of false killer whales (Pseudorca crassidens) in Hawaiian waters.

    PubMed

    Bradford, Amanda L; Forney, Karin A; Oleson, Erin M; Barlow, Jay

    2014-01-01

    For biological populations that form aggregations (or clusters) of individuals, cluster size is an important parameter in line-transect abundance estimation and should be accurately measured. Cluster size in cetaceans has traditionally been represented as the total number of individuals in a group, but group size may be underestimated if group members are spatially diffuse. Groups of false killer whales (Pseudorca crassidens) can comprise numerous subgroups that are dispersed over tens of kilometers, leading to a spatial mismatch between a detected group and the theoretical framework of line-transect analysis. Three stocks of false killer whales are found within the U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone of the Hawaiian Islands (Hawaiian EEZ): an insular main Hawaiian Islands stock, a pelagic stock, and a Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (NWHI) stock. A ship-based line-transect survey of the Hawaiian EEZ was conducted in the summer and fall of 2010, resulting in six systematic-effort visual sightings of pelagic (n = 5) and NWHI (n = 1) false killer whale groups. The maximum number and spatial extent of subgroups per sighting was 18 subgroups and 35 km, respectively. These sightings were combined with data from similar previous surveys and analyzed within the conventional line-transect estimation framework. The detection function, mean cluster size, and encounter rate were estimated separately to appropriately incorporate data collected using different methods. Unlike previous line-transect analyses of cetaceans, subgroups were treated as the analytical cluster instead of groups because subgroups better conform to the specifications of line-transect theory. Bootstrap values (n = 5,000) of the line-transect parameters were randomly combined to estimate the variance of stock-specific abundance estimates. Hawai'i pelagic and NWHI false killer whales were estimated to number 1,552 (CV = 0.66; 95% CI = 479-5,030) and 552 (CV = 1.09; 95% CI = 97

  1. RVC-CAL library for endmember and abundance estimation in hyperspectral image analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lazcano López, R.; Madroñal Quintín, D.; Juárez Martínez, E.; Sanz Álvaro, C.

    2015-10-01

    Hyperspectral imaging (HI) collects information from across the electromagnetic spectrum, covering a wide range of wavelengths. Although this technology was initially developed for remote sensing and earth observation, its multiple advantages - such as high spectral resolution - led to its application in other fields, as cancer detection. However, this new field has shown specific requirements; for instance, it needs to accomplish strong time specifications, since all the potential applications - like surgical guidance or in vivo tumor detection - imply real-time requisites. Achieving this time requirements is a great challenge, as hyperspectral images generate extremely high volumes of data to process. Thus, some new research lines are studying new processing techniques, and the most relevant ones are related to system parallelization. In that line, this paper describes the construction of a new hyperspectral processing library for RVC-CAL language, which is specifically designed for multimedia applications and allows multithreading compilation and system parallelization. This paper presents the development of the required library functions to implement two of the four stages of the hyperspectral imaging processing chain--endmember and abundances estimation. The results obtained show that the library achieves speedups of 30%, approximately, comparing to an existing software of hyperspectral images analysis; concretely, the endmember estimation step reaches an average speedup of 27.6%, which saves almost 8 seconds in the execution time. It also shows the existence of some bottlenecks, as the communication interfaces among the different actors due to the volume of data to transfer. Finally, it is shown that the library considerably simplifies the implementation process. Thus, experimental results show the potential of a RVC-CAL library for analyzing hyperspectral images in real-time, as it provides enough resources to study the system performance.

  2. Estimating White-tailed Deer abundance at Gettysburg National Military Park and Eisenhower National Historic Site

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Stainbrook, David P.; Diefenbach, Duane R.

    2012-01-01

    The mission at Gettysburg National Military Park and Eisenhower National Historic Site (GNMP-ENHS) is to preserve the historic character of the parks to enable current and future generations to understand and interpret the events that took place at each park. Management objectives include maintaining the landscape as it existed during the historic 1863 Civil War battle (e.g., dense understory in woodlots) in GNMP and as it existed during Eisenhower’s occupancy (e.g., patchwork of cropfields) in ENHS. Browsing by white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) diminished regeneration of native trees in woodlots and prevented crops from reaching maturity. Thus, to increase regeneration in woodlots and reduce crop damage, the National Park Service (NPS) began culling deer in 1995 to reach a density goal of 10 deer/km2 of forest. However, park managers were interested in an accurate population estimate to determine if their management goal has been met and possible methods to monitor future abundance.

  3. New method for estimating bacterial cell abundances in natural samples by use of sublimation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Glavin, Daniel P.; Cleaves, H. James; Schubert, Michael; Aubrey, Andrew; Bada, Jeffrey L.

    2004-01-01

    We have developed a new method based on the sublimation of adenine from Escherichia coli to estimate bacterial cell counts in natural samples. To demonstrate this technique, several types of natural samples, including beach sand, seawater, deep-sea sediment, and two soil samples from the Atacama Desert, were heated to a temperature of 500 degrees C for several seconds under reduced pressure. The sublimate was collected on a cold finger, and the amount of adenine released from the samples was then determined by high-performance liquid chromatography with UV absorbance detection. Based on the total amount of adenine recovered from DNA and RNA in these samples, we estimated bacterial cell counts ranging from approximately 10(5) to 10(9) E. coli cell equivalents per gram. For most of these samples, the sublimation-based cell counts were in agreement with total bacterial counts obtained by traditional DAPI (4,6-diamidino-2-phenylindole) staining.

  4. Oxygen abundance distributions in six late-type galaxies based on SALT spectra of H II regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zinchenko, I. A.; Kniazev, A. Y.; Grebel, E. K.; Pilyugin, L. S.

    2015-10-01

    Spectra of 34 H ii regions in the late-type galaxies NGC 1087, NGC 2967, NGC 3023, NGC 4030, NGC 4123, and NGC 4517A were observed with the South African Large Telescope (SALT). In all 34 H ii regions, oxygen abundances were determined through the "counterpart" method (C method). Additionally, in two H ii regions in which we detected auroral lines, we measured oxygen abundances with the classic Te method. We also estimated the abundances in our H ii regions using the O3N2 and N2 calibrations and compared those with the C-based abundances. With these data, we examined the radial abundance distributions in the disks of our target galaxies. We derived surface-brightness profiles and other characteristics of the disks (the surface brightness at the disk center and the disk scale length) in three photometric bands for each galaxy using publicly available photometric imaging data. The radial distributions of the oxygen abundances predicted by the relation between abundance and disk surface brightness in the W1 band obtained for spiral galaxies in our previous study are close to the radial distributions of the oxygen abundances determined from the analysis of the emission line spectra for four galaxies where this relation is applicable. Hence, when the surface-brightness profile of a late-type galaxy is known, this parametric relation can be used to estimate the likely present-day oxygen abundance in the disk of the galaxy. Based on observations made with the Southern African Large Telescope, programs 2012-1-RSA_OTH-001, 2012-2-RSA_OTH-003 and 2013-1-RSA_OTH-005.

  5. Estimating cavity tree and snag abundance using negative binomial regression models and nearest neighbor imputation methods

    Treesearch

    Bianca N.I. Eskelson; Hailemariam Temesgen; Tara M. Barrett

    2009-01-01

    Cavity tree and snag abundance data are highly variable and contain many zero observations. We predict cavity tree and snag abundance from variables that are readily available from forest cover maps or remotely sensed data using negative binomial (NB), zero-inflated NB, and zero-altered NB (ZANB) regression models as well as nearest neighbor (NN) imputation methods....

  6. Mark-recapture and mark-resight methods for estimating abundance with remote cameras: a carnivore case study

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Alanso, Robert S.; McClintock, Brett T.; Lyren, Lisa M.; Boydston, Erin E.; Crooks, Kevin R.

    2015-01-01

    Abundance estimation of carnivore populations is difficult and has prompted the use of non-invasive detection methods, such as remotely-triggered cameras, to collect data. To analyze photo data, studies focusing on carnivores with unique pelage patterns have utilized a mark-recapture framework and studies of carnivores without unique pelage patterns have used a mark-resight framework. We compared mark-resight and mark-recapture estimation methods to estimate bobcat (Lynx rufus) population sizes, which motivated the development of a new "hybrid" mark-resight model as an alternative to traditional methods. We deployed a sampling grid of 30 cameras throughout the urban southern California study area. Additionally, we physically captured and marked a subset of the bobcat population with GPS telemetry collars. Since we could identify individual bobcats with photos of unique pelage patterns and a subset of the population was physically marked, we were able to use traditional mark-recapture and mark-resight methods, as well as the new “hybrid” mark-resight model we developed to estimate bobcat abundance. We recorded 109 bobcat photos during 4,669 camera nights and physically marked 27 bobcats with GPS telemetry collars. Abundance estimates produced by the traditional mark-recapture, traditional mark-resight, and “hybrid” mark-resight methods were similar, however precision differed depending on the models used. Traditional mark-recapture and mark-resight estimates were relatively imprecise with percent confidence interval lengths exceeding 100% of point estimates. Hybrid mark-resight models produced better precision with percent confidence intervals not exceeding 57%. The increased precision of the hybrid mark-resight method stems from utilizing the complete encounter histories of physically marked individuals (including those never detected by a camera trap) and the encounter histories of naturally marked individuals detected at camera traps. This new estimator

  7. Use of Atlantic Forest protected areas by free-ranging dogs: estimating abundance and persistence of use

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Paschoal, Ana Maria; Massara, Rodrigo; Bailey, Larissa L.; Kendall, William L.; Doherty, Paul F.; Hirsch, Andre; Chiarello, Adriano; Paglia, Adriano

    2016-01-01

    Worldwide, domestic dogs (Canis familiaris) are one of the most common carnivoran species in natural areas and their populations are still increasing. Dogs have been shown to impact wildlife populations negatively, and their occurrence can alter the abundance, behavior, and activity patterns of native species. However, little is known about abundance and density of the free-ranging dogs that use protected areas. Here, we used camera trap data with an open-robust design mark–recapture model to estimate the number of dogs that used protected areas in Brazilian Atlantic Forest. We estimated the time period these dogs used the protected areas, and explored factors that influenced the probability of continued use (e.g., season, mammal richness, proportion of forest), while accounting for variation in detection probability. Dogs in the studied system were categorized as rural free-ranging, and their abundance varied widely across protected areas (0–73 individuals). Dogs used protected areas near human houses for longer periods (e.g., >50% of sampling occasions) compared to more distant areas. We found no evidence that their probability of continued use varied with season or mammal richness. Dog detection probability decreased linearly among occasions, possibly due to the owners confining their dogs after becoming aware of our presence. Comparing our estimates to those for native carnivoran, we found that dogs were three to 85 times more abundant than ocelots (Leopardus pardalis), two to 25 times more abundant than puma (Puma concolor), and approximately five times more abundant than the crab-eating fox (Cerdocyon thous). Combining camera trapping data with modern mark–recapture methods provides important demographic information on free-ranging dogs that can guide management strategies to directly control dogs' abundance and ranging behavior.

  8. Designing deep sequencing experiments: detecting structural variation and estimating transcript abundance.

    PubMed

    Bashir, Ali; Bansal, Vikas; Bafna, Vineet

    2010-06-18

    Massively parallel DNA sequencing technologies have enabled the sequencing of several individual human genomes. These technologies are also being used in novel ways for mRNA expression profiling, genome-wide discovery of transcription-factor binding sites, small RNA discovery, etc. The multitude of sequencing platforms, each with their unique characteristics, pose a number of design challenges, regarding the technology to be used and the depth of sequencing required for a particular sequencing application. Here we describe a number of analytical and empirical results to address design questions for two applications: detection of structural variations from paired-end sequencing and estimating mRNA transcript abundance. For structural variation, our results provide explicit trade-offs between the detection and resolution of rearrangement breakpoints, and the optimal mix of paired-read insert lengths. Specifically, we prove that optimal detection and resolution of breakpoints is achieved using a mix of exactly two insert library lengths. Furthermore, we derive explicit formulae to determine these insert length combinations, enabling a 15% improvement in breakpoint detection at the same experimental cost. On empirical short read data, these predictions show good concordance with Illumina 200 bp and 2 Kbp insert length libraries. For transcriptome sequencing, we determine the sequencing depth needed to detect rare transcripts from a small pilot study. With only 1 Million reads, we derive corrections that enable almost perfect prediction of the underlying expression probability distribution, and use this to predict the sequencing depth required to detect low expressed genes with greater than 95% probability. Together, our results form a generic framework for many design considerations related to high-throughput sequencing. We provide software tools http://bix.ucsd.edu/projects/NGS-DesignTools to derive platform independent guidelines for designing sequencing experiments

  9. Associations of hypoosmotic swelling test, relative sperm volume shift, aquaporin7 mRNA abundance and bull fertility estimates.

    PubMed

    Kasimanickam, R K; Kasimanickam, V R; Arangasamy, A; Kastelic, J P

    2017-02-01

    Mammalian sperm are exposed to a natural hypoosmotic environment during male-to-female reproductive tract transition; although this activates sperm motility in vivo, excessive swelling can harm sperm structure and function. Aquaporins (AQPs) is a family of membrane-channel proteins implicated in sperm osmoregulation. The objective was to determine associations among relative sperm volume shift, hypoosmotic swelling test (HOST), sperm aquaporin (AQP) 7 mRNA abundances, and sire conception rate (SCR; fertility estimate) in Holstein bulls at a commercial artificial insemination center. Three or four sires for each full point SCR score from -4 to +4 were included. Each SCR estimate for study bulls (N = 30) was based on > 500 services (mean ± SEM) of 725 ± 13 services/sire). Sperm from a single collection day (two ejaculates) from these commercial Holstein bulls were used. Relative mRNA expression of AQP7 in sperm was determined by polymerase chain reaction. Mean relative sperm volume shift and percentage of sperm reacted in a HOST (% HOST) were determined (400 sperm per bull) after incubating in isoosmotic (300 mOsm/kg) and hypoosmotic (100 mOsm/kg) solutions for 30 min. There was no correlation between %HOST and SCR (r = 0.28 P > 0.1). However, there was a positive correlation between relative sperm volume shift and SCR (r = 0.65, P < 0.05). Furthermore, AQP7 mRNA abundance was positively correlated to both relative volume shift (r = 0.73; P < 0.05) and to SCR (r = 0.67; P < 0.05). The mRNA expressions of AQP7 and relative sperm volume shift differed (P < 0.05) among low- (<2 SCR), average- (-2 to +2) and high- (>2) fertility sire groups. In conclusion, bulls with higher SCR had significantly greater AQP7 mRNA abundance in frozen-thawed sperm. This plausibly contributed to greater regulation of sperm volume shift, which apparently conferred protection from detrimental swelling and impaired functions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All

  10. A guide to the use of distance sampling to estimate abundance of Karner blue butterflies

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Grundel, Ralph

    2015-01-01

    This guide is intended to describe the use of distance sampling as a method for evaluating the abundance of Karner blue butterflies at a location. Other methods for evaluating abundance exist, including mark-release-recapture and index counts derived from Pollard-Yates surveys, for example. Although this guide is not intended to be a detailed comparison of the pros and cons of each type of method, there are important preliminary considerations to think about before selecting any method for evaluating the abundance of Karner blue butterflies.

  11. A likelihood framework for joint estimation of salmon abundance and migratory timing using telemetric mark-recapture

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bromaghin, Jeffrey F.; Gates, Kenneth S.; Palmer, Douglas E.

    2010-01-01

    Many fisheries for Pacific salmon Oncorhynchus spp. are actively managed to meet escapement goal objectives. In fisheries where the demand for surplus production is high, an extensive assessment program is needed to achieve the opposing objectives of allowing adequate escapement and fully exploiting the available surplus. Knowledge of abundance is a critical element of such assessment programs. Abundance estimation using mark—recapture experiments in combination with telemetry has become common in recent years, particularly within Alaskan river systems. Fish are typically captured and marked in the lower river while migrating in aggregations of individuals from multiple populations. Recapture data are obtained using telemetry receivers that are co-located with abundance assessment projects near spawning areas, which provide large sample sizes and information on population-specific mark rates. When recapture data are obtained from multiple populations, unequal mark rates may reflect a violation of the assumption of homogeneous capture probabilities. A common analytical strategy is to test the hypothesis that mark rates are homogeneous and combine all recapture data if the test is not significant. However, mark rates are often low, and a test of homogeneity may lack sufficient power to detect meaningful differences among populations. In addition, differences among mark rates may provide information that could be exploited during parameter estimation. We present a temporally stratified mark—recapture model that permits capture probabilities and migratory timing through the capture area to vary among strata. Abundance information obtained from a subset of populations after the populations have segregated for spawning is jointly modeled with telemetry distribution data by use of a likelihood function. Maximization of the likelihood produces estimates of the abundance and timing of individual populations migrating through the capture area, thus yielding

  12. The improvement of precision for estimating the abundance of standing dead trees using auxiliary information under the FIA pot design

    Treesearch

    Hong Su An; David W. MacFarlane; Christopher W. Woodall

    2012-01-01

    Standing dead trees are an important component of forest ecosystems. However, reliable estimates of standing dead tree population parameters can be difficult to obtain due to their low abundance and spatial and temporal variation. After 1999, the Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) Program began collecting data for standing dead trees at the Phase 2 stage of sampling....

  13. Estimating bighorn sheep (Ovis Canadensis) abundance using noninvasive sampling at a mineral lick within a national park wilderness area

    Treesearch

    Kathryn A. Schoenecker; Mary Kay Watry; Laura E. Ellison; Michael K. Schwartz; Gordon L. Luikart

    2015-01-01

    Conservation of species requires accurate population estimates. We used genetic markers from feces to determine bighorn sheep abundance for a herd that was hypothesized to be declining and in need of population status monitoring. We sampled from a small but accessible portion of the population’s range where animals naturally congregate at a natural mineral lick to test...

  14. Validation of abundance estimates from mark-recapture and removal techniques for rainbow trout captured by electrofishing in small streams

    Treesearch

    Amanda E. Rosenberger; Jason B. Dunham

    2005-01-01

    Estimation of fish abundance in streams using the removal model or the Lincoln–Peterson mark–recapture model is a common practice in fisheries. These models produce misleading results if their assumptions are violated. We evaluated the assumptions of these two models via electrofishing of rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss in central Idaho streams....

  15. A New Method for Estimating Bacterial Abundances in Natural Samples using Sublimation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Glavin, Daniel P.; Cleaves, H. James; Schubert, Michael; Aubrey, Andrew; Bada, Jeffrey L.

    2004-01-01

    We have developed a new method based on the sublimation of adenine from Escherichia coli to estimate bacterial cell counts in natural samples. To demonstrate this technique, several types of natural samples including beach sand, seawater, deep-sea sediment, and two soil samples from the Atacama Desert were heated to a temperature of 500 C for several seconds under reduced pressure. The sublimate was collected on a cold finger and the amount of adenine released from the samples then determined by high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) with UV absorbance detection. Based on the total amount of adenine recovered from DNA and RNA in these samples, we estimated bacterial cell counts ranging from approx. l0(exp 5) to l0(exp 9) E. coli cell equivalents per gram. For most of these samples, the sublimation based cell counts were in agreement with total bacterial counts obtained by traditional DAPI staining. The simplicity and robustness of the sublimation technique compared to the DAPI staining method makes this approach particularly attractive for use by spacecraft instrumentation. NASA is currently planning to send a lander to Mars in 2009 in order to assess whether or not organic compounds, especially those that might be associated with life, are present in Martian surface samples. Based on our analyses of the Atacama Desert soil samples, several million bacterial cells per gam of Martian soil should be detectable using this sublimation technique.

  16. Estimated abundance of wild burros surveyed on Bureau of Land Management Lands in 2014

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Griffin, Paul C.

    2015-01-01

    The Bureau of Land Management (BLM) requires accurate estimates of the numbers of wild horses (Equus ferus caballus) and burros (Equus asinus) living on the lands it manages. For over ten years, BLM in Arizona has used the simultaneous double-observer method of recording wild burros during aerial surveys and has reported population estimates for those surveys that come from two formulations of a Lincoln-Petersen type of analysis (Graham and Bell, 1989). In this report, I provide those same two types of burro population analysis for 2014 aerial survey data from six herd management areas (HMAs) in Arizona, California, Nevada, and Utah. I also provide burro population estimates based on a different form of simultaneous double-observer analysis, now in widespread use for wild horse surveys that takes into account the potential effects on detection probability of sighting covariates including group size, distance, vegetative cover, and other factors (Huggins, 1989, 1991). The true number of burros present in the six areas surveyed was not known, so population estimates made with these three types of analyses cannot be directly tested for accuracy in this report. I discuss theoretical reasons why the Huggins (1989, 1991) type of analysis should provide less biased estimates of population size than the Lincoln-Petersen analyses and why estimates from all forms of double-observer analyses are likely to be lower than the true number of animals present in the surveyed areas. I note reasons why I suggest using burro observations made at all available distances in analyses, not only those within 200 meters of the flight path. For all analytical methods, small sample sizes of observed groups can be problematic, but that sample size can be increased over time for Huggins (1989, 1991) analyses by pooling observations. I note ways by which burro population estimates could be tested for accuracy when there are radio-collared animals in the population or when there are simultaneous

  17. Data reconstruction can improve abundance index estimation: An example using Taiwanese longline data for Pacific bluefin tuna

    PubMed Central

    Fukuda, Hiromu; Maunder, Mark N.

    2017-01-01

    Catch-per-unit-effort (CPUE) is often the main piece of information used in fisheries stock assessment; however, the catch and effort data that are traditionally compiled from commercial logbooks can be incomplete or unreliable due to many reasons. Pacific bluefin tuna (PBF) is a seasonal target species in the Taiwanese longline fishery. Since 2010, detailed catch information for each PBF has been made available through a catch documentation scheme. However, previously, only market landing data with a low coverage of logbooks were available. Therefore, several nontraditional procedures were performed to reconstruct catch and effort data from many alternative data sources not directly obtained from fishers for 2001–2015: (1) Estimating the catch number from the landing weight for 2001–2003, for which the catch number information was incomplete, based on Monte Carlo simulation; (2) deriving fishing days for 2007–2009 from voyage data recorder data, based on a newly developed algorithm; and (3) deriving fishing days for 2001–2006 from vessel trip information, based on linear relationships between fishing and at-sea days. Subsequently, generalized linear mixed models were developed with the delta-lognormal assumption for standardizing the CPUE calculated from the reconstructed data, and three-stage model evaluation was performed using (1) Akaike and Bayesian information criteria to determine the most favorable variable composition of standardization models, (2) overall R2 via cross-validation to compare fitting performance between area-separated and area-combined standardizations, and (3) system-based testing to explore the consistency of the standardized CPUEs with auxiliary data in the PBF stock assessment model. The last stage of evaluation revealed high consistency among the data, thus demonstrating improvements in data reconstruction for estimating the abundance index, and consequently the stock assessment. PMID:28968434

  18. Observations-based GPP estimates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Joiner, J.; Yoshida, Y.; Jung, M.; Tucker, C. J.; Pinzon, J. E.

    2017-12-01

    We have developed global estimates of gross primary production based on a relatively simple satellite observations-based approach using reflectance data from the MODIS instruments in the form of vegetation indices that provide information about photosynthetic capacity at both high temporal and spatial resolution and combined with information from chlorophyll solar-induced fluorescence from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment-2 instrument that is noisier and available only at lower temporal and spatial scales. We compare our gross primary production estimates with those from eddy covariance flux towers and show that they are competitive with more complicated extrapolated machine learning gross primary production products. Our results provide insight into the amount of variance in gross primary production that can be explained with satellite observations data and also show how processing of the satellite reflectance data is key to using it for accurate GPP estimates.

  19. Estimating modal abundances from the spectra of natural and laboratory pyroxene mixtures using the modified Gaussian model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sunshine, Jessica M.; Pieters, Carle M.

    1993-01-01

    The modified Gaussian model (MGM) is used to explore spectra of samples containing multiple pyroxene components as a function of modal abundance. The MGM allows spectra to be analyzed directly, without the use of actual or assumed end-member spectra and therefore holds great promise for remote applications. A series of mass fraction mixtures created from several different particle size fractions are analyzed with the MGM to quantify the properties of pyroxene mixtures as a function of both modal abundance and grain size. Band centers, band widths, and relative band strengths of absorptions from individual pyroxenes in mixture spectra are found to be largely independent of particle size. Spectral properties of both zoned and exsolved pyroxene components are resolved in exsolved samples using the MGM, and modal abundances are accurately estimated to within 5-10 percent without predetermined knowledge of the end-member spectra.

  20. Mineral Abundance Estimates and Distribution Derived from Mars Dune Field #2938-497

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Charles, H. R.; Titus, T. N.

    2015-05-01

    The goal of this analysis was to determine the presence or absence of feldspar and examine its distribution if present in dune field #2938-497. We deconvolved thermal emissivity data from TES to identify mineral abundances in the dune field.

  1. Abundance, distribution, and colony size estimates for Reticulitermes spp. (Isoptera: Rhinotermitidae) in Southern Mississippi

    Treesearch

    Ralph W. Howard; Susan C. Jones; Joe K. Mauldin; Raymond H. Beal

    1982-01-01

    A census of 24 1-ha plots indicated an average abundance per ha of 4.42 colonies of Reticulitermes flavipes (Kollar) and 2.38 colonies of R. virginicus (Banks). Nearest neighbor analysis indicated the mean distance between colonies of R. Flavipes to be 22.48 M, between colonies of R. virginicus...

  2. Abundance patterns of evolved stars with Hipparcos parallaxes and ages based on the APOGEE data base

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jia, Y. P.; Chen, Y. Q.; Zhao, G.; Bari, M. A.; Zhao, J. K.; Tan, K. F.

    2018-01-01

    We investigate the abundance patterns for four groups of stars at evolutionary phases from sub-giant to red clump (RC) and trace the chemical evolution of the disc by taking 21 individual elemental abundances from APOGEE and ages from evolutionary models with the aid of Hipparcos distances. We find that the abundances of six elements (Si, S, K, Ca, Mn and Ni) are similar from the sub-giant phase to the RC phase. In particular, we find that a group of stars with low [C/N] ratios, mainly from the second sequence of RC stars, show that there is a difference in the transfer efficiency of the C-N-O cycle between the main and the secondary RC sequences. We also compare the abundance patterns of C-N, Mg-Al and Na-O with giant stars in globular clusters from APOGEE and find that field stars follow similar patterns as M107, a metal-rich globular cluster with [M/H] ∼- 1.0, which shows that the self-enrichment mechanism represented by strong C-N, Mg-Al and Na-O anti-correlations may not be important as the metallicity reaches [M/H] > -1.0 dex. Based on the abundances of above-mentioned six elements and [Fe/H], we investigate age versus abundance relations and find some old super-metal-rich stars in our sample. Their properties of old age and being rich in metal are evidence for stellar migration. The age versus metallicity relations in low-[α/M] bins show unexpectedly positive slopes. We propose that the fresh metal-poor gas infalling on to the Galactic disc may be the precursor for this unexpected finding.

  3. Hierarchical distance-sampling models to estimate population size and habitat-specific abundance of an island endemic

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sillett, Scott T.; Chandler, Richard B.; Royle, J. Andrew; Kéry, Marc; Morrison, Scott A.

    2012-01-01

    Population size and habitat-specific abundance estimates are essential for conservation management. A major impediment to obtaining such estimates is that few statistical models are able to simultaneously account for both spatial variation in abundance and heterogeneity in detection probability, and still be amenable to large-scale applications. The hierarchical distance-sampling model of J. A. Royle, D. K. Dawson, and S. Bates provides a practical solution. Here, we extend this model to estimate habitat-specific abundance and rangewide population size of a bird species of management concern, the Island Scrub-Jay (Aphelocoma insularis), which occurs solely on Santa Cruz Island, California, USA. We surveyed 307 randomly selected, 300 m diameter, point locations throughout the 250-km2 island during October 2008 and April 2009. Population size was estimated to be 2267 (95% CI 1613-3007) and 1705 (1212-2369) during the fall and spring respectively, considerably lower than a previously published but statistically problematic estimate of 12 500. This large discrepancy emphasizes the importance of proper survey design and analysis for obtaining reliable information for management decisions. Jays were most abundant in low-elevation chaparral habitat; the detection function depended primarily on the percent cover of chaparral and forest within count circles. Vegetation change on the island has been dramatic in recent decades, due to release from herbivory following the eradication of feral sheep (Ovis aries) from the majority of the island in the mid-1980s. We applied best-fit fall and spring models of habitat-specific jay abundance to a vegetation map from 1985, and estimated the population size of A. insularis was 1400-1500 at that time. The 20-30% increase in the jay population suggests that the species has benefited from the recovery of native vegetation since sheep removal. Nevertheless, this jay's tiny range and small population size make it vulnerable to natural

  4. Bacterioplankton in antarctic ocean waters during late austral winter: abundance, frequency of dividing cells, and estimates of production.

    PubMed

    Hanson, R B; Shafer, D; Ryan, T; Pope, D H; Lowery, H K

    1983-05-01

    Bacterioplankton productivity in Antarctic waters of the eastern South Pacific Ocean and Drake Passage was estimated by direct counts and frequency of dividing cells (FDC). Total bacterioplankton assemblages were enumerated by epifluorescent microscopy. The experimentally determined relationship between in situ FDC and the potential instantaneous growth rate constant (mu) is best described by the regression equation ln mu = 0.081 FDC - 3.73. In the eastern South Pacific Ocean, bacterioplankton abundance (2 x 10 to 3.5 x 10 cells per ml) and FDC (11%) were highest at the Polar Front (Antarctic Convergence). North of the Subantarctic Front, abundance and FDC were between 1 x 10 to 2 x 10 cells per ml and 3 to 5%, respectively, and were vertically homogeneous to a depth of 600 m. In Drake Passage, abundance (10 x 10 cells per ml) and FDC (16%) were highest in waters south of the Polar Front and near the sea ice. Subantarctic waters in Drake Passage contained 4 x 10 cells per ml with 4 to 5% FDC. Instantaneous growth rate constants ranged between 0.029 and 0.088 h. Using estimates of potential mu and measured standing stocks, we estimated productivity to range from 0.62 mug of C per liter . day in the eastern South Pacific Ocean to 17.1 mug of C per liter . day in the Drake Passage near the sea ice.

  5. Capture-recapture abundance and survival estimates of three cetacean species in Icelandic coastal waters using trained scientist-volunteers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bertulli, Chiara G.; Guéry, Loreleï; McGinty, Niall; Suzuki, Ailie; Brannan, Naomi; Marques, Tania; Rasmussen, Marianne H.; Gimenez, Olivier

    2018-01-01

    Knowledge of abundance and survival of humpback whales, white-beaked dolphins and minke whales are essential to manage and conserve these species in Icelandic coastal shelf waters. Our main goal was to test the feasibility of employing inexpensive research methods (data collected by trained-scientist volunteers onboard opportunistic vessels) to assess abundance and apparent survival. No previous studies in Iceland have investigated these two demographic parameters in these three cetacean species using open capture-recapture models accounting for imperfect and possibly heterogeneous detection. A transient effect was accounted for whenever required to estimate the population of resident individuals. Identification photographs were collected by scientist-trained volunteers for 7 years (2006-2013) from onboard commercial whale-watching vessels in the coastal waters of Faxaflói (southwest coast, 4400 km2) and Skjálfandi (northeast coast, 1100 km2), Iceland. We estimated an average abundance of 83 humpback whales (Mn; 95% confidence interval: 54-130) in Skjálfandi; 238 white-beaked dolphins (La; [163-321]) in Faxaflói; and 67 minke whales (Ba; [53-82]) in Faxaflói and 24 (14-31) in Skjálfandi. We also found that apparent survival was constant for all three species (Mn: 0.52 [0.41-0.63], La: 0.79 [0.64-0.88], Ba-Faxaflói: 0.80 [0.67-0.88], Ba-Skjálfandi: 0.96 [0.60-0.99]). Our results showed inter-annual variation in abundance estimates which were small for all species, and the presence of transience for minke whales. A significant increase in abundance during the study period was solely found in minke whale data from Skjálfandi. Humpback whales and white-beaked dolphins showed lower apparent survival rates compared to similar baleen whale and dolphin populations. Our results show data collected by trained-scientist volunteers can produce viable estimates of abundance and survival although bias in the methods we employed exist and need to be addressed. With the

  6. A hierarchical model for estimating the spatial distribution and abundance of animals detected by continuous-time recorders

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dorazio, Robert; Karanth, K. Ullas

    2017-01-01

    MotivationSeveral spatial capture-recapture (SCR) models have been developed to estimate animal abundance by analyzing the detections of individuals in a spatial array of traps. Most of these models do not use the actual dates and times of detection, even though this information is readily available when using continuous-time recorders, such as microphones or motion-activated cameras. Instead most SCR models either partition the period of trap operation into a set of subjectively chosen discrete intervals and ignore multiple detections of the same individual within each interval, or they simply use the frequency of detections during the period of trap operation and ignore the observed times of detection. Both practices make inefficient use of potentially important information in the data.Model and data analysisWe developed a hierarchical SCR model to estimate the spatial distribution and abundance of animals detected with continuous-time recorders. Our model includes two kinds of point processes: a spatial process to specify the distribution of latent activity centers of individuals within the region of sampling and a temporal process to specify temporal patterns in the detections of individuals. We illustrated this SCR model by analyzing spatial and temporal patterns evident in the camera-trap detections of tigers living in and around the Nagarahole Tiger Reserve in India. We also conducted a simulation study to examine the performance of our model when analyzing data sets of greater complexity than the tiger data.BenefitsOur approach provides three important benefits: First, it exploits all of the information in SCR data obtained using continuous-time recorders. Second, it is sufficiently versatile to allow the effects of both space use and behavior of animals to be specified as functions of covariates that vary over space and time. Third, it allows both the spatial distribution and abundance of individuals to be estimated, effectively providing a species

  7. Estimating grizzly and black bear population abundance and trend in Banff National Park using noninvasive genetic sampling.

    PubMed

    Sawaya, Michael A; Stetz, Jeffrey B; Clevenger, Anthony P; Gibeau, Michael L; Kalinowski, Steven T

    2012-01-01

    We evaluated the potential of two noninvasive genetic sampling methods, hair traps and bear rub surveys, to estimate population abundance and trend of grizzly (Ursus arctos) and black bear (U. americanus) populations in Banff National Park, Alberta, Canada. Using Huggins closed population mark-recapture models, we obtained the first precise abundance estimates for grizzly bears (N= 73.5, 95% CI = 64-94 in 2006; N= 50.4, 95% CI = 49-59 in 2008) and black bears (N= 62.6, 95% CI = 51-89 in 2006; N= 81.8, 95% CI = 72-102 in 2008) in the Bow Valley. Hair traps had high detection rates for female grizzlies, and male and female black bears, but extremely low detection rates for male grizzlies. Conversely, bear rubs had high detection rates for male and female grizzlies, but low rates for black bears. We estimated realized population growth rates, lambda, for grizzly bear males (λ= 0.93, 95% CI = 0.74-1.17) and females (λ= 0.90, 95% CI = 0.67-1.20) using Pradel open population models with three years of bear rub data. Lambda estimates are supported by abundance estimates from combined hair trap/bear rub closed population models and are consistent with a system that is likely driven by high levels of human-caused mortality. Our results suggest that bear rub surveys would provide an efficient and powerful means to inventory and monitor grizzly bear populations in the Central Canadian Rocky Mountains.

  8. Estimating Grizzly and Black Bear Population Abundance and Trend in Banff National Park Using Noninvasive Genetic Sampling

    PubMed Central

    Sawaya, Michael A.; Stetz, Jeffrey B.; Clevenger, Anthony P.; Gibeau, Michael L.; Kalinowski, Steven T.

    2012-01-01

    We evaluated the potential of two noninvasive genetic sampling methods, hair traps and bear rub surveys, to estimate population abundance and trend of grizzly (Ursus arctos) and black bear (U. americanus) populations in Banff National Park, Alberta, Canada. Using Huggins closed population mark-recapture models, we obtained the first precise abundance estimates for grizzly bears ( = 73.5, 95% CI = 64–94 in 2006;  = 50.4, 95% CI = 49–59 in 2008) and black bears ( = 62.6, 95% CI = 51–89 in 2006;  = 81.8, 95% CI = 72–102 in 2008) in the Bow Valley. Hair traps had high detection rates for female grizzlies, and male and female black bears, but extremely low detection rates for male grizzlies. Conversely, bear rubs had high detection rates for male and female grizzlies, but low rates for black bears. We estimated realized population growth rates, lambda, for grizzly bear males ( = 0.93, 95% CI = 0.74–1.17) and females ( = 0.90, 95% CI = 0.67–1.20) using Pradel open population models with three years of bear rub data. Lambda estimates are supported by abundance estimates from combined hair trap/bear rub closed population models and are consistent with a system that is likely driven by high levels of human-caused mortality. Our results suggest that bear rub surveys would provide an efficient and powerful means to inventory and monitor grizzly bear populations in the Central Canadian Rocky Mountains. PMID:22567089

  9. Using genetic pedigree reconstruction to estimate effective spawner abundance from redd surveys: an example involving Pacific lamprey (Entosphenus tridentatus)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Whitlock, S.L.; Schultz, L.D.; Schreck, Carl B.; Hess, J.E.

    2017-01-01

    Redd surveys are a commonly used technique for indexing the abundance of sexually mature fish in streams; however, substantial effort is often required to link redd counts to actual spawner abundance. In this study, we describe how genetic pedigree reconstruction can be used to estimate effective spawner abundance in a stream reach, using Pacific lamprey (Entosphenus tridentatus) as an example. Lamprey embryos were sampled from redds within a 2.5 km reach of the Luckiamute River, Oregon, USA. Embryos were found in only 20 of the 48 redds sampled (suggesting 58% false redds); however, multiple sets of parents were detected in 44% of the true redds. Estimates from pedigree reconstruction suggested that there were 0.48 (95% CI: 0.29–0.88) effective spawners per redd and revealed that individual lamprey contributed gametes to a minimum of between one and six redds, and in one case, spawned in patches that were separated by over 800 m. Our findings demonstrate the utility of pedigree reconstruction techniques for both inferring spawning-ground behaviors and providing useful information for refining lamprey redd survey methodologies.

  10. Estimating population size with correlated sampling unit estimates

    Treesearch

    David C. Bowden; Gary C. White; Alan B. Franklin; Joseph L. Ganey

    2003-01-01

    Finite population sampling theory is useful in estimating total population size (abundance) from abundance estimates of each sampled unit (quadrat). We develop estimators that allow correlated quadrat abundance estimates, even for quadrats in different sampling strata. Correlated quadrat abundance estimates based on mark–recapture or distance sampling methods occur...

  11. Use of portable antennas to estimate abundance of PIT-tagged fish in small streams: Factors affecting detection probability

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    O'Donnell, Matthew J.; Horton, Gregg E.; Letcher, Benjamin H.

    2010-01-01

    Portable passive integrated transponder (PIT) tag antenna systems can be valuable in providing reliable estimates of the abundance of tagged Atlantic salmon Salmo salar in small streams under a wide range of conditions. We developed and employed PIT tag antenna wand techniques in two controlled experiments and an additional case study to examine the factors that influenced our ability to estimate population size. We used Pollock's robust-design capture–mark–recapture model to obtain estimates of the probability of first detection (p), the probability of redetection (c), and abundance (N) in the two controlled experiments. First, we conducted an experiment in which tags were hidden in fixed locations. Although p and c varied among the three observers and among the three passes that each observer conducted, the estimates of N were identical to the true values and did not vary among observers. In the second experiment using free-swimming tagged fish, p and c varied among passes and time of day. Additionally, estimates of N varied between day and night and among age-classes but were within 10% of the true population size. In the case study, we used the Cormack–Jolly–Seber model to examine the variation in p, and we compared counts of tagged fish found with the antenna wand with counts collected via electrofishing. In that study, we found that although p varied for age-classes, sample dates, and time of day, antenna and electrofishing estimates of N were similar, indicating that population size can be reliably estimated via PIT tag antenna wands. However, factors such as the observer, time of day, age of fish, and stream discharge can influence the initial and subsequent detection probabilities.

  12. Normalized difference vegetation index as an estimator for abundance and quality of avian herbivore forage in arctic Alaska

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hogrefe, Kyle R.; Patil, Vijay; Ruthrauff, Daniel R.; Meixell, Brandt W.; Budde, Michael E.; Hupp, Jerry W.; Ward, David H.

    2017-01-01

    Tools that can monitor biomass and nutritional quality of forage plants are needed to understand how arctic herbivores may respond to the rapidly changing environment at high latitudes. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) has been widely used to assess changes in abundance and distribution of terrestrial vegetative communities. However, the efficacy of NDVI to measure seasonal changes in biomass and nutritional quality of forage plants in the Arctic remains largely un-evaluated at landscape and fine-scale levels. We modeled the relationships between NDVI and seasonal changes in aboveground biomass and nitrogen concentration in halophytic graminoids, a key food source for arctic-nesting geese. The model was calibrated based on data collected at one site and validated using data from another site. Effects of spatial scale on model accuracy were determined by comparing model predictions between NDVI derived from moderate resolution (250 × 250 m pixels) satellite data and high resolution (20 cm diameter area) handheld spectrometer data. NDVI derived from the handheld spectrometer was a superior estimator (R2 ≥ 0.67) of seasonal changes in aboveground biomass compared to satellite-derived NDVI (R2 ≤ 0.40). The addition of temperature and precipitation variables to the model for biomass improved fit, but provided minor gains in predictive power beyond that of the NDVI-only model. This model, however, was only a moderately accurate estimator of biomass in an ecologically-similar halophytic graminoid wetland located 100 km away, indicating the necessity for site-specific validation. In contrast to assessments of biomass, satellite-derived NDVI was a better estimator for the timing of peak percent of nitrogen than NDVI derived from the handheld spectrometer. We confirmed that the date when NDVI reached 50% of its seasonal maximum was a reasonable approximation of the period of peak spring vegetative green-up and peak percent nitrogen. This study

  13. Spatial patterns of distribution, abundance, and species diversity of small odontocetes estimated using density surface modeling with line transect sampling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kanaji, Yu; Okazaki, Makoto; Miyashita, Tomio

    2017-06-01

    Spatial patterns of distribution, abundance, and species diversity of small odontocetes including species in the Delphinidae and Phocoenidae families were investigated using long-term dedicated sighting survey data collected between 1983 and 2006 in the North Pacific. Species diversity indices were calculated from abundance estimated using density surface modeling of line-transect data. The estimated abundance ranged from 19,521 individuals in killer whale to 1,886,022 in pantropical spotted dolphin. The predicted density maps showed that the habitats of small odontocetes corresponded well with distinct oceanic domains. Species richness was estimated to be highest between 30 and 40°N where warm- and cold-water currents converge. Simpson's Diversity Index showed latitudinal diversity gradients of decreasing species numbers toward the poles. Higher diversity was also estimated in the coastal areas and the zonal areas around 35-42°N. Coastal-offshore gradients and latitudinal gradients are known for many taxa. The zonal areas around 35°N and 40°N coincide with the Kuroshio Current and its extension and the subarctic boundary, respectively. These results suggest that the species diversity of small odontocetes primarily follows general patterns of latitudinal and longitudinal gradients, while the confluence of faunas originating in distinct water masses increases species diversify in frontal waters around 30-40°N. Population densities tended to be higher for the species inhabiting higher latitudes, but were highest for intermediate latitudes at approximately 35-40°N. According to latitudinal gradients in water temperature and biological productivity, the costs for thermoregulation will decrease in warmer low latitudes, while feeding efficiency will increase in colder high latitudes. These trade-offs could optimize population density in intermediate latitudes.

  14. Estimation of marine mineral resources abundance using back-scattering intensity of Deep-tow Side Scan Sonar

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yoo, C. M.; Joo, J.; Hyeong, K.; Chi, S. B.

    2016-12-01

    Manganese nodule, also known as polymetallic nodule, contains precious elements in high contents and is regarded as one of the most important future mineral resources. It occurs throughout the world oceans, but economically feasible deposits show limited distribution only in several deepsea basins including Clarion-Clipperton Fracture Zone (CCFZ) in northeast equatorial Pacific. Estimation of resources potential is one of the key factors prerequisite for economic feasibility study. Nodule abundance is commonly estimated from direct nodule sampling, however it is difficult to obtain statistically robust data because of highly variable spatial distribution and high cost of direct sampling. Variogram analysis indicates 3.5×3.5km sampling resolution to obtain indicated category of resources data, which requires over 1,000 sampling operations to cover the potential exploitation area with mining life of 20-30 years. High-resolution acoustic survey, bathymetry and back-scattered intensity, can provide high-resolution resources data with the definition of obstacles, such as faults and scarps, for operation of nodule collecting robots. We operated 120 kHz deep-tow side scan sonar (DTSSS) with spatial resolution of 1×1m in a representative area. Sea floor images were also taken continuously by deep-tow camera from selected tracks, converted to nodule abundance using image analysis program and conversion equation, and compared with acoustic data. Back-scattering intensity values could be divided into several group and translated into nodule abundance with high confidence level. Our result indicates that high resolution acoustic survey is appropriate tool for reliable assessment of manganese nodule abundance and definition of minable area.

  15. Constrained Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Relative Abundances of Protein Conformation in a Heterogeneous Mixture from Small Angle X-Ray Scattering Intensity Measurements

    PubMed Central

    Onuk, A. Emre; Akcakaya, Murat; Bardhan, Jaydeep P.; Erdogmus, Deniz; Brooks, Dana H.; Makowski, Lee

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, we describe a model for maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) of the relative abundances of different conformations of a protein in a heterogeneous mixture from small angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) intensities. To consider cases where the solution includes intermediate or unknown conformations, we develop a subset selection method based on k-means clustering and the Cramér-Rao bound on the mixture coefficient estimation error to find a sparse basis set that represents the space spanned by the measured SAXS intensities of the known conformations of a protein. Then, using the selected basis set and the assumptions on the model for the intensity measurements, we show that the MLE model can be expressed as a constrained convex optimization problem. Employing the adenylate kinase (ADK) protein and its known conformations as an example, and using Monte Carlo simulations, we demonstrate the performance of the proposed estimation scheme. Here, although we use 45 crystallographically determined experimental structures and we could generate many more using, for instance, molecular dynamics calculations, the clustering technique indicates that the data cannot support the determination of relative abundances for more than 5 conformations. The estimation of this maximum number of conformations is intrinsic to the methodology we have used here. PMID:26924916

  16. Niche modelling of marsh plants based on occurrence and abundance data.

    PubMed

    Lou, Yanjing; Gao, Chuanyu; Pan, Yanwen; Xue, Zhenshan; Liu, Ying; Tang, Zhanhui; Jiang, Ming; Lu, Xianguo; Rydin, Håkan

    2018-03-01

    The information of species' response (optimum or critical limits along environmental gradients) is a key to understanding ecological questions and to design management plans. A large number of plots (762) from 70 transects of 13 wetland sites in Northeast China were sampled along flooding gradient from marsh to wet meadow. Species response (abundance and occurrence) to flooding were modelled with Generalized Additive Models for 21 dominant plant species. We found that 20 of 21 species showed a significant response to flooding for the occurrence and abundance models, and four types of response were found: monotonically increasing, monotonically decreasing, skewed unimodal and symmetric unimodal. The species with monotonically increasing response have the deepest flooding optimum and widest niche width, followed by those with unimodal curve, and the monotonically decreasing ones have the smallest values. The optima and niche width (whether based on occurrence or abundance models) both significantly correlated with the frequency, but not with mean abundance. Abundance models outperformed occurrence models based on goodness of fit. The abundance models predicted a rather sharp shift from dominance of helophytes (Carex pseudo-curaica and C. lasiocarpa) to wet meadow species (Calamagrostis angustifolia and Carex appendiculata) if water levels drop from about 10cm above soil surface to below the surface. The defined optima and niche width based on the abundance models can be applied to better instruct restoration management. Given the time required to collect abundance data, an efficient strategy could be to monitor occurrence in many plots and abundance in a subset of these. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. Automated and Accurate Estimation of Gene Family Abundance from Shotgun Metagenomes

    PubMed Central

    Nayfach, Stephen; Bradley, Patrick H.; Wyman, Stacia K.; Laurent, Timothy J.; Williams, Alex; Eisen, Jonathan A.; Pollard, Katherine S.; Sharpton, Thomas J.

    2015-01-01

    Shotgun metagenomic DNA sequencing is a widely applicable tool for characterizing the functions that are encoded by microbial communities. Several bioinformatic tools can be used to functionally annotate metagenomes, allowing researchers to draw inferences about the functional potential of the community and to identify putative functional biomarkers. However, little is known about how decisions made during annotation affect the reliability of the results. Here, we use statistical simulations to rigorously assess how to optimize annotation accuracy and speed, given parameters of the input data like read length and library size. We identify best practices in metagenome annotation and use them to guide the development of the Shotgun Metagenome Annotation Pipeline (ShotMAP). ShotMAP is an analytically flexible, end-to-end annotation pipeline that can be implemented either on a local computer or a cloud compute cluster. We use ShotMAP to assess how different annotation databases impact the interpretation of how marine metagenome and metatranscriptome functional capacity changes across seasons. We also apply ShotMAP to data obtained from a clinical microbiome investigation of inflammatory bowel disease. This analysis finds that gut microbiota collected from Crohn’s disease patients are functionally distinct from gut microbiota collected from either ulcerative colitis patients or healthy controls, with differential abundance of metabolic pathways related to host-microbiome interactions that may serve as putative biomarkers of disease. PMID:26565399

  18. Estimating Water Ice Abundance from Short-Wave Infrared Spectra of Drill Cuttings at Cryogenic Temperatures

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Roush, Ted L.; Colaprete, Anthony; Kleinhenz, Julie; Cook, Amanda

    2017-01-01

    NASA's Resource Prospector (RP) mission intends to visit a lunar polar region to characterize the volatile distribution. Part of the RP payload, the Near-infrared Volatile Spectrometer System (NIRVSS) is a spectrometer operating from 1600-3400 nm that provides sensitivity to water ice, and other volatiles. For multiple years, the NIRVSS system has been incorporated into on-going RP payload testing in a cryogenic vacuum facility at Glenn Research Center. Soil tubes of lunar simulants, prepared with known amounts of water, are placed in the vacuum chamber and cooled to cryogenic temperatures (soil temperatures of 110-170 K) and placed under low vacuum (a few x 10(exp -6) Torr). During these tests NIRVSS continuously measures spectra of soil cuttings emplaced onto the surface by a drill. Real time processing of NIRVSS spectra produces two spectral parameters associated with water ice absorption features near 2000 and 3000 nm that can be used to inform decision making activities such as delivery of the soil to a sealable container. Post-test collection and analyses of the soils permit characterization the water content as a function of depth. These water content profiles exhibit the characteristics of a vacuum desiccation zone to depths of about 40 cm. Subsequent to completion of the tests, NIRVSS spectra are processed to produce two spectral parameters associated with water ice absorption features near 2000 and 3000 nm. These features can be evaluated as a function of time, and correlated with drill depth, and other measurements, throughout the drilling activities. Until now no effort was attempted to quantitatively relate these parameters to water abundance. This is the focus of our efforts to be presented.

  19. Estimating Water Ice Abundance from Short-wave Infrared Spectra of Drill Cuttings at Cryogenic Temperatures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roush, T. L.; Colaprete, A.; Kleinhenz, J.; Cook, A.

    2017-12-01

    NASA's Resource Prospector (RP) mission intends to visit a lunar polar region to characterize the volatile distribution. Part of the RP payload, the Near-infrared Volatile Spectrometer System (NIRVSS) is a spectrometer operating from 1600-3400 nm that provides sensitivity to water ice, and other volatiles. For multiple years, the NIRVSS system has been incorporated into on-going RP payload testing in a cryogenic vacuum facility at Glenn Research Center. Soil tubes of lunar simulants, prepared with known amounts of water, are placed in the vacuum chamber and cooled to cryogenic temperatures (soil temperatures of 110-170° K) and placed under low vacuum (a few x 10-6 Torr). During these tests NIRVSS continuously measures spectra of soil cuttings emplaced onto the surface by a drill. Real time processing of NIRVSS spectra produces two spectral parameters associated with water ice absorption features near 2000 and 3000 nm that can be used to inform decision-making activities such as delivery of the soil to a sealable container. Post-test collection and analyses of the soils permit characterization the water content as a function of depth. These water content profiles exhibit the characteristics of a vacuum desiccation zone to depths of about 40 cm. Subsequent to completion of the tests, NIRVSS spectra are processed to produce two spectral parameters associated with water ice absorption features near 2000 and 3000 nm. These features can be evaluated as a function of time, and correlated with drill depth, and other measurements, throughout the drilling activities. Until now no effort was attempted to quantitatively relate these parameters to water abundance. This is the focus of our efforts to be presented.

  20. Field trials of line transect methods applied to estimation of desert tortoise abundance

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Anderson, David R.; Burnham, Kenneth P.; Lubow, Bruce C.; Thomas, L. E. N.; Corn, Paul Stephen; Medica, Philip A.; Marlow, R.W.

    2001-01-01

    We examine the degree to which field observers can meet the assumptions underlying line transect sampling to monitor populations of desert tortoises (Gopherus agassizii). We present the results of 2 field trials using artificial tortoise models in 3 size classes. The trials were conducted on 2 occasions on an area south of Las Vegas, Nevada, where the density of the test population was known. In the first trials, conducted largely by experienced biologists who had been involved in tortoise surveys for many years, the density of adult tortoise models was well estimated (-3.9% bias), while the bias was higher (-20%) for subadult tortoise models. The bias for combined data was -12.0%. The bias was largely attributed to the failure to detect all tortoise models on or near the transect centerline. The second trials were conducted with a group of largely inexperienced student volunteers and used somewhat different searching methods, and the results were similar to the first trials. Estimated combined density of subadult and adult tortoise models had a negative bias (-7.3%), again attributable to failure to detect some models on or near the centerline. Experience in desert tortoise biology, either comparing the first and second trials or in the second trial with 2 experienced biologists versus 16 novices, did not have an apparent effect on the quality of the data or the accuracy of the estimates. Observer training, specific to line transect sampling, and field testing are important components of a reliable survey. Line transect sampling represents a viable method for large-scale monitoring of populations of desert tortoise; however, field protocol must be improved to assure the key assumptions are met.

  1. Estimating mineral abundances of clay and gypsum mixtures using radiative transfer models applied to visible-near infrared reflectance spectra

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Robertson, K. M.; Milliken, R. E.; Li, S.

    2016-10-01

    Quantitative mineral abundances of lab derived clay-gypsum mixtures were estimated using a revised Hapke VIS-NIR and Shkuratov radiative transfer model. Montmorillonite-gypsum mixtures were used to test the effectiveness of the model in distinguishing between subtle differences in minor absorption features that are diagnostic of mineralogy in the presence of strong H2O absorptions that are not always diagnostic of distinct phases or mineral abundance. The optical constants (k-values) for both endmembers were determined from bi-directional reflectance spectra measured in RELAB as well as on an ASD FieldSpec3 in a controlled laboratory setting. Multiple size fractions were measured in order to derive a single k-value from optimization of the optical path length in the radiative transfer models. It is shown that with careful experimental conditions, optical constants can be accurately determined from powdered samples using a field spectrometer, consistent with previous studies. Variability in the montmorillonite hydration level increased the uncertainties in the derived k-values, but estimated modal abundances for the mixtures were still within 5% of the measured values. Results suggest that the Hapke model works well in distinguishing between hydrated phases that have overlapping H2O absorptions and it is able to detect gypsum and montmorillonite in these simple mixtures where they are present at levels of ∼10%. Care must be taken however to derive k-values from a sample with appropriate H2O content relative to the modeled spectra. These initial results are promising for the potential quantitative analysis of orbital remote sensing data of hydrated minerals, including more complex clay and sulfate assemblages such as mudstones examined by the Curiosity rover in Gale crater.

  2. Effect of timing of count events on estimates of sea lice abundance and interpretation of effectiveness following bath treatments.

    PubMed

    Gautam, R; Vanderstichel, R; Boerlage, A S; Revie, C W; Hammell, K L

    2017-03-01

    Effectiveness of sea lice bath treatment is often assessed by comparing pre- and post-treatment counts. However, in practice, the post-treatment counting window varies from the day of treatment to several days after treatment. In this study, we assess the effect of post-treatment lag time on sea lice abundance estimates after chemical bath treatment using data from the sea lice data management program (Fish-iTrends) between 2010 and 2014. Data on two life stages, (i) adult female (AF) and (ii) pre-adult and adult male (PAAM), were aggregated at the cage level and log-transformed. Average sea lice counts by post-treatment lag time were computed for AF and PAAM and compared relative to treatment day, using linear mixed models. There were 720 observations (treatment events) that uniquely matched pre- and post-treatment counts from 53 farms. Lag time had a significant effect on the estimated sea lice abundance, which was influenced by season and pre-treatment sea lice levels. During summer, sea lice were at a minimum when counted 1 day post-treatment irrespective of pre-treatment sea lice levels, whereas in the spring and autumn, low levels were observed for PAAM over a longer interval of time, provided the pre-treatment sea lice levels were >5-10. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  3. Double-observer approach to estimating egg mass abundance of vernal pool breeding amphibians

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Grant, E.H.C.; Jung, R.E.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.

    2005-01-01

    Interest in seasonally flooded pools, and the status of associated amphibian populations, has initiated programs in the northeastern United States to document and monitor these habitats. Counting egg masses is an effective way to determine the population size of pool-breeding amphibians, such as wood frogs (Rana sylvatica) and spotted salamanders (Ambystoma maculatum). However, bias is associated with counts if egg masses are missed. Counts unadjusted for the proportion missed (i.e., without adjustment for detection probability) could lead to false assessments of population trends. We used a dependent double-observer method in 2002-2003 to estimate numbers of wood frog and spotted salamander egg masses at seasonal forest pools in 13 National Wildlife Refuges, 1 National Park, 1 National Seashore, and 1 State Park in the northeastern United States. We calculated detection probabilities for egg masses and examined whether detection probabilities varied by species, observers, pools, and in relation to pool characteristics (pool area, pool maximum depth, within-pool vegetation). For the 2 years, model selection indicated that no consistent set of variables explained the variation in data sets from individual Refuges and Parks. Because our results indicated that egg mass detection probabilities vary spatially and temporally, we conclude that it is essential to use estimation procedures, such as double-observer methods with egg mass surveys, to determine population sizes and trends of these species.

  4. Estimating Dungeness crab (Cancer magister) abundance: Crab pots and dive transects compared

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Taggart, S. James; O'Clair, Charles E.; Shirley, Thomas C.; Mondragon, Jennifer

    2004-01-01

    Dungeness crabs (Cancer magister) were sampled with commercial pots and counted by scuba divers on benthic transects at eight sites near Glacier Bay, Alaska. Catch per unit of effort (CPUE) from pots was compared to the density estimates from dives to evaluate the bias and power of the two techniques. Yearly sampling was conducted in two seasons: April and September, from 1992 to 2000. Male CPUE estimates from pots were significantly lower in April than in the following September; a step-wise regression demonstrated that season accounted for more of the variation in male CPUE than did temperature. In both April and September, pot sampling was significantly biased against females. When females were categorized as ovigerous and nonovigerous, it was clear that ovigerous females accounted for the majority of the bias because pots were not biased against nonovigerous females. We compared the power of pots and dive transects in detecting trends in populations and found that pots had much higher power than dive transects. Despite their low power, the dive transects were very useful for detecting bias in our pot sampling and in identifying the optimal times of year to sample so that pot bias could be avoided.

  5. Comparison of day snorkeling, night snorkeling, and electrofishing to estimate bull trout abundance and size structure in a second-order Idaho stream

    Treesearch

    Russell F. Thurow; Daniel J. Schill

    1996-01-01

    Biologists lack sufficient information to develop protocols for sampling the abundance and size structure of bull trout Salvelinus confluentus. We compared summer estimates of the abundance and size structure of bull trout in a second-order central Idaho stream, derived by day snorkeling, night snorkeling, and electrofishing. We also examined the influence of water...

  6. An evaluation of the efficiency of minnow traps for estimating the abundance of minnows in desert spring systems

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Peterson, James T.; Scheerer, Paul D.; Clements, Shaun

    2015-01-01

    Desert springs are sensitive aquatic ecosystems that pose unique challenges to natural resource managers and researchers. Among the most important of these is the need to accurately quantify population parameters for resident fish, particularly when the species are of special conservation concern. We evaluated the efficiency of baited minnow traps for estimating the abundance of two at-risk species, Foskett Speckled Dace Rhinichthys osculus ssp. and Borax Lake Chub Gila boraxobius, in desert spring systems in southeastern Oregon. We evaluated alternative sample designs using simulation and found that capture–recapture designs with four capture occasions would maximize the accuracy of estimates and minimize fish handling. We implemented the design and estimated capture and recapture probabilities using the Huggins closed-capture estimator. Trap capture probabilities averaged 23% and 26% for Foskett Speckled Dace and Borax Lake Chub, respectively, but differed substantially among sample locations, through time, and nonlinearly with fish body size. Recapture probabilities for Foskett Speckled Dace were, on average, 1.6 times greater than (first) capture probabilities, suggesting “trap-happy” behavior. Comparison of population estimates from the Huggins model with the commonly used Lincoln–Petersen estimator indicated that the latter underestimated Foskett Speckled Dace and Borax Lake Chub population size by 48% and by 20%, respectively. These biases were due to variability in capture and recapture probabilities. Simulation of fish monitoring that included the range of capture and recapture probabilities observed indicated that variability in capture and recapture probabilities in time negatively affected the ability to detect annual decreases by up to 20% in fish population size. Failure to account for variability in capture and recapture probabilities can lead to poor quality data and study inferences. Therefore, we recommend that fishery researchers and

  7. The influence of seine capture efficiency on fish abundance estimates in the upper Mississippi River

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Holland Bartels, L. E.; Dewey, M.R.

    1997-01-01

    The effects of season, presence of vegetation, and time of day on seine capture efficiency for fish were evaluated using test enclosures in the upper Mississippi River. Overall capture efficiency of the seine haul was 49% (53% during the day and 43% at night). During daytime tests, the efficiency ranged from 39% to 74% but did not differ statistically between sites or among dates. At night, the efficiency was higher at the vegetated than at the nonvegetated site (55% vs 32%) and declined through time from 56% in May to 28% in October. Although susceptibility to capture differed among taxa, we could not predict either total catch efficiency or efficiency within a given taxon for a given sample. Adjustment of catch data with various estimates of efficiency reduced the mean absolute error for all sampling dates from 51% to 24%, but the error of the adjusted data still ranged from -58% to +54% on any given sampling date. These results indicate that it is difficult to make accurate adjustment of catch data to compensate for gear bias in studies of seasonal habitat use.

  8. Size-Based Hydroacoustic Measures of Within-Season Fish Abundance in a Boreal Freshwater Ecosystem

    PubMed Central

    Pollom, Riley A.; Rose, George A.

    2015-01-01

    Eleven sequential size-based hydroacoustic surveys conducted with a 200 kHz split-beam transducer during the summers of 2011 and 2012 were used to quantify seasonal declines in fish abundance in a boreal reservoir in Manitoba, Canada. Fish densities were sufficiently low to enable single target resolution and tracking. Target strengths converted to log2-based size-classes indicated that smaller fish were consistently more abundant than larger fish by a factor of approximately 3 for each halving of length. For all size classes, in both years, abundance (natural log) declined linearly over the summer at rates that varied from -0.067.day-1 for the smallest fish to -0.016.day-1 for the largest (R2 = 0.24–0.97). Inter-annual comparisons of size-based abundance suggested that for larger fish (>16 cm), mean winter decline rates were an order of magnitude lower (-0.001.day-1) and overall survival higher (71%) than in the main summer fishing season (mean loss rate -0.038.day-1; survival 33%). We conclude that size-based acoustic survey methods have the potential to assess within-season fish abundance dynamics, and may prove useful in long-term monitoring of productivity and hence management of boreal aquatic ecosystems. PMID:25875467

  9. Gear and seasonal bias associated with abundance and size structure estimates for lentic freshwater fishes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fischer, Jesse R.; Quist, Michael C.

    2014-01-01

    All freshwater fish sampling methods are biased toward particular species, sizes, and sexes and are further influenced by season, habitat, and fish behavior changes over time. However, little is known about gear-specific biases for many common fish species because few multiple-gear comparison studies exist that have incorporated seasonal dynamics. We sampled six lakes and impoundments representing a diversity of trophic and physical conditions in Iowa, USA, using multiple gear types (i.e., standard modified fyke net, mini-modified fyke net, sinking experimental gill net, bag seine, benthic trawl, boat-mounted electrofisher used diurnally and nocturnally) to determine the influence of sampling methodology and season on fisheries assessments. Specifically, we describe the influence of season on catch per unit effort, proportional size distribution, and the number of samples required to obtain 125 stock-length individuals for 12 species of recreational and ecological importance. Mean catch per unit effort generally peaked in the spring and fall as a result of increased sampling effectiveness in shallow areas and seasonal changes in habitat use (e.g., movement offshore during summer). Mean proportional size distribution decreased from spring to fall for white bass Morone chrysops, largemouth bass Micropterus salmoides, bluegill Lepomis macrochirus, and black crappie Pomoxis nigromaculatus, suggesting selectivity for large and presumably sexually mature individuals in the spring and summer. Overall, the mean number of samples required to sample 125 stock-length individuals was minimized in the fall with sinking experimental gill nets, a boat-mounted electrofisher used at night, and standard modified nets for 11 of the 12 species evaluated. Our results provide fisheries scientists with relative comparisons between several recommended standard sampling methods and illustrate the effects of seasonal variation on estimates of population indices that will be critical to

  10. Spatio-temporal variation in male white-tailed deer harvest rates in Pennsylvania: Implications for estimating abundance

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Norton, Andrew S.; Diefenbach, Duane R.; Wallingford, Bret D.; Rosenberry, Christopher S.

    2012-01-01

    The performance of 2 popular methods that use age-at-harvest data to estimate abundance of white-tailed deer is contingent on assumptions about variation in estimates of subadult (1.5 yr old) and adult (≥2.5 yr old) male harvest rates. Auxiliary data (e.g., estimates of survival or harvest rates from radiocollared animals) can be used to relax some assumptions, but unless these population parameters exhibit limited temporal or spatial variation, these auxiliary data may not improve accuracy. Unfortunately maintaining sufficient sample sizes of radiocollared deer for parameter estimation in every wildlife management unit (WMU) is not feasible for most state agencies. We monitored the fates of 397 subadult and 225 adult male white-tailed deer across 4 WMUs from 2002 to 2008 using radio telemetry. We investigated spatial and temporal variation in harvest rates and investigated covariates related to the patterns observed. We found that most variation in harvest rates was explained spatially and that adult harvest rates (0.36–0.69) were more variable among study areas than subadult harvest rates (0.26–0.42). We found that hunter effort during the archery and firearms season best explained variation in harvest rates of adult males among WMUs, whereas hunter effort during only the firearms season best explained harvest rates for subadult males. From a population estimation perspective, it is advantageous that most variation was spatial and explained by a readily obtained covariate (hunter effort). However, harvest rates may vary if hunting regulations or hunter behavior change, requiring additional field studies to obtain accurate estimates of harvest rates. 

  11. Estimating bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) abundance using noninvasive sampling at a mineral lick within a National Park Wilderness Area

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Schoenecker, Kathryn A.; Watry, Mary Kay; Ellison, Laura E.; Schwarz, Michael A.; Luikart, Gordon

    2015-01-01

    Conservation of species requires accurate population estimates. We used genetic markers from feces to determine bighorn sheep abundance for a herd that was hypothesized to be declining and in need of population status monitoring. We sampled from a small but accessible portion of the population's range where animals naturally congregate at a natural mineral lick to test whether we could accurately estimate population size by sampling from an area where animals concentrate. We used mark-recapture analysis to derive population estimates, and compared estimates from this smaller spatial sampling to estimates from sampling of the entire bighorn sheep range. We found that estimates were somewhat comparable; in 2009, the mineral lick sample and entire range sample differed by 20 individuals, and in 2010 they differed by only one individual. However, we captured 13 individuals in the entire range sample that were not captured at the mineral lick, and thus violated a model assumption that all individuals had an equal opportunity of being captured. This eliminated the possibility of inferring a total population estimate from just animals visiting the mineral lick, but because estimates were relatively similar, monitoring at the mineral lick can provide a useful index for management and conservation. We compared our results to a radio-collar study conducted in 2003–2004 and confirmed that the population remained stable since 2004. Our population estimates were 78 (CI 62–114) in 2009 and 95 (CI 77–131) in 2010. Between 7 and 11 sampling dates were needed to achieve a CV of 20% for population estimates, assuming a capture probability between 0.09 and 0.13. We relied on citizen science volunteers to maximize data collection and reduce costs; 71% of all fecal samples were collected by volunteers, compared to 29% collected by paid staff. We conclude that our technique provides a useful monitoring tool for managers. The technique could be tested and applied in similar

  12. Examination of an indicative tool for rapidly estimating viable organism abundance in ballast water

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vanden Byllaardt, Julie; Adams, Jennifer K.; Casas-Monroy, Oscar; Bailey, Sarah A.

    2018-03-01

    Regulatory discharge standards stipulating a maximum allowable number of viable organisms in ballast water have led to a need for rapid, easy and accurate compliance assessment tools and protocols. Some potential tools presume that organisms present in ballast water samples display the same characteristics of life as the native community (e.g. rates of fluorescence). This presumption may not prove true, particularly when ships' ballast tanks present a harsh environment and long transit times, negatively impacting organism health. Here, we test the accuracy of a handheld pulse amplitude modulated (PAM) fluorometer, the Hach BW680, for detecting photosynthetic protists at concentrations above or below the discharge standard (< 10 cells·ml- 1) in comparison to microscopic counts using fluorescein diacetate as a viability probe. Testing was conducted on serial dilutions of freshwater harbour samples in the lab and in situ untreated ballast water samples originating from marine, freshwater and brackish sources utilizing three preprocessing techniques to target organisms in the size range of ≥ 10 and < 50 μm. The BW680 numeric estimates were in agreement with microscopic counts when analyzing freshly collected harbour water at all but the lowest concentrations (< 38 cells·ml- 1). Chi-square tests determined that error is not independent of preprocessing methods: using the filtrate method or unfiltered water, in addition to refining the conversion factor of raw fluorescence to cell size, can decrease the grey area where exceedance of the discharge standard cannot be measured with certainty (at least for the studied populations). When examining in situ ballast water, the BW680 detected significantly fewer viable organisms than microscopy, possibly due to factors such as organism size or ballast water age. Assuming both the BW680 and microscopy with FDA stain were measuring fluorescence and enzymatic activity/membrane integrity correctly, the observed discrepancy

  13. NASA Software Cost Estimation Model: An Analogy Based Estimation Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hihn, Jairus; Juster, Leora; Menzies, Tim; Mathew, George; Johnson, James

    2015-01-01

    The cost estimation of software development activities is increasingly critical for large scale integrated projects such as those at DOD and NASA especially as the software systems become larger and more complex. As an example MSL (Mars Scientific Laboratory) developed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory launched with over 2 million lines of code making it the largest robotic spacecraft ever flown (Based on the size of the software). Software development activities are also notorious for their cost growth, with NASA flight software averaging over 50% cost growth. All across the agency, estimators and analysts are increasingly being tasked to develop reliable cost estimates in support of program planning and execution. While there has been extensive work on improving parametric methods there is very little focus on the use of models based on analogy and clustering algorithms. In this paper we summarize our findings on effort/cost model estimation and model development based on ten years of software effort estimation research using data mining and machine learning methods to develop estimation models based on analogy and clustering. The NASA Software Cost Model performance is evaluated by comparing it to COCOMO II, linear regression, and K-­ nearest neighbor prediction model performance on the same data set.

  14. Membrane vesicles in sea water: heterogeneous DNA content and implications for viral abundance estimates

    PubMed Central

    Biller, Steven J; McDaniel, Lauren D; Breitbart, Mya; Rogers, Everett; Paul, John H; Chisholm, Sallie W

    2017-01-01

    Diverse microbes release membrane-bound extracellular vesicles from their outer surfaces into the surrounding environment. Vesicles are found in numerous habitats including the oceans, where they likely have a variety of functional roles in microbial ecosystems. Extracellular vesicles are known to contain a range of biomolecules including DNA, but the frequency with which DNA is packaged in vesicles is unknown. Here, we examine the quantity and distribution of DNA associated with vesicles released from five different bacteria. The average quantity of double-stranded DNA and size distribution of DNA fragments released within vesicles varies among different taxa. Although some vesicles contain sufficient DNA to be visible following staining with the SYBR fluorescent DNA dyes typically used to enumerate viruses, this represents only a small proportion (<0.01–1%) of vesicles. Thus DNA is packaged heterogeneously within vesicle populations, and it appears that vesicles are likely to be a minor component of SYBR-visible particles in natural sea water compared with viruses. Consistent with this hypothesis, chloroform treatment of coastal and offshore seawater samples reveals that vesicles increase epifluorescence-based particle (viral) counts by less than an order of magnitude and their impact is variable in space and time. PMID:27824343

  15. Catalysts Based on Earth-Abundant Metals for Visible Light-Driven Water Oxidation Reaction.

    PubMed

    Lin, Junqi; Han, Qing; Ding, Yong

    2018-06-04

    Exploration of water oxidation catalyst (WOC) with excellent performance is the key for the overall water splitting reaction, which is a feasible strategy to convert solar energy to chemical energy. Although some compounds composed of noble metals, mainly Ru and Ir, have been reported to catalyze water oxidation with high efficiency, catalysts based on low-cost and earth-abundant transition metals are essential for realizing economical and large-scale light-driven water splitting. Various WOCs containing earth-abundant metals (mainly Mn, Fe, Co, Ni, Cu) have been utilized for visible light-driven water oxidation in recent years. In this Personal Account, we summarize our recent developments in WOCs based on earth-abundant transition metals including polyoxometalates (POMs), metal oxides or bimetal oxides, and metal complexes containing multidentate ligand scaffolds for visible light-driven water oxidation reaction. © 2018 The Chemical Society of Japan & Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  16. Compensating for geographic variation in detection probability with water depth improves abundance estimates of coastal marine megafauna.

    PubMed

    Hagihara, Rie; Jones, Rhondda E; Sobtzick, Susan; Cleguer, Christophe; Garrigue, Claire; Marsh, Helene

    2018-01-01

    The probability of an aquatic animal being available for detection is typically <1. Accounting for covariates that reduce the probability of detection is important for obtaining robust estimates of the population abundance and determining its status and trends. The dugong (Dugong dugon) is a bottom-feeding marine mammal and a seagrass community specialist. We hypothesized that the probability of a dugong being available for detection is dependent on water depth and that dugongs spend more time underwater in deep-water seagrass habitats than in shallow-water seagrass habitats. We tested this hypothesis by quantifying the depth use of 28 wild dugongs fitted with GPS satellite transmitters and time-depth recorders (TDRs) at three sites with distinct seagrass depth distributions: 1) open waters supporting extensive seagrass meadows to 40 m deep (Torres Strait, 6 dugongs, 2015); 2) a protected bay (average water depth 6.8 m) with extensive shallow seagrass beds (Moreton Bay, 13 dugongs, 2011 and 2012); and 3) a mixture of lagoon, coral and seagrass habitats to 60 m deep (New Caledonia, 9 dugongs, 2013). The fitted instruments were used to measure the times the dugongs spent in the experimentally determined detection zones under various environmental conditions. The estimated probability of detection was applied to aerial survey data previously collected at each location. In general, dugongs were least available for detection in Torres Strait, and the population estimates increased 6-7 fold using depth-specific availability correction factors compared with earlier estimates that assumed homogeneous detection probability across water depth and location. Detection probabilities were higher in Moreton Bay and New Caledonia than Torres Strait because the water transparency in these two locations was much greater than in Torres Strait and the effect of correcting for depth-specific detection probability much less. The methodology has application to visual survey of coastal

  17. Why joints are more abundant than faults. A conceptual model to estimate their ratio in layered carbonate rocks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Caputo, Riccardo

    2010-09-01

    It is a commonplace field observation that extension fractures are more abundant than shear fractures. The questions of how much more abundant, and why, are posed in this paper and qualitative estimates of their ratio within a rock volume are made on the basis of field observations and mechanical considerations. A conceptual model is also proposed to explain the common range of ratios between extension and shear fractures, here called the j/ f ratio. The model considers three major genetic stress components originated from overburden, pore-fluid pressure and tectonics and assumes that some of the remote genetic stress components vary with time ( i.e. stress-rates are included). Other important assumptions of the numerical model are that: i) the strength of the sub-volumes is randomly attributed following a Weibull probabilistic distribution, ii) all fractures heal after a given time, thus simulating the cementation process, and therefore iii) both extensional jointing and shear fracturing could be recurrent events within the same sub-volume. As a direct consequence of these assumptions, the stress tensor at any point varies continuously in time and these variations are caused by both remote stresses and local stress drops associated with in-situ and neighbouring fracturing events. The conceptual model is implemented in a computer program to simulate layered carbonate rock bodies undergoing brittle deformation. The numerical results are obtained by varying the principal parameters, like depth ( viz. confining pressure), tensile strength, pore-fluid pressure and shape of the Weibull distribution function, in a wide range of values, therefore simulating a broad spectrum of possible mechanical and lithological conditions. The quantitative estimates of the j/ f ratio confirm the general predominance of extensional failure events during brittle deformation in shallow crustal rocks and provide useful insights for better understanding the role played by the different

  18. Estimating wetland vegetation abundance from Landsat-8 operational land imager imagery: a comparison between linear spectral mixture analysis and multinomial logit modeling methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Min; Gong, Zhaoning; Zhao, Wenji; Pu, Ruiliang; Liu, Ke

    2016-01-01

    Mapping vegetation abundance by using remote sensing data is an efficient means for detecting changes of an eco-environment. With Landsat-8 operational land imager (OLI) imagery acquired on July 31, 2013, both linear spectral mixture analysis (LSMA) and multinomial logit model (MNLM) methods were applied to estimate and assess the vegetation abundance in the Wild Duck Lake Wetland in Beijing, China. To improve mapping vegetation abundance and increase the number of endmembers in spectral mixture analysis, normalized difference vegetation index was extracted from OLI imagery along with the seven reflective bands of OLI data for estimating the vegetation abundance. Five endmembers were selected, which include terrestrial plants, aquatic plants, bare soil, high albedo, and low albedo. The vegetation abundance mapping results from Landsat OLI data were finally evaluated by utilizing a WorldView-2 multispectral imagery. Similar spatial patterns of vegetation abundance produced by both fully constrained LSMA algorithm and MNLM methods were observed: higher vegetation abundance levels were distributed in agricultural and riparian areas while lower levels in urban/built-up areas. The experimental results also indicate that the MNLM model outperformed the LSMA algorithm with smaller root mean square error (0.0152 versus 0.0252) and higher coefficient of determination (0.7856 versus 0.7214) as the MNLM model could handle the nonlinear reflection phenomenon better than the LSMA with mixed pixels.

  19. Estimation of biological nitrogen fixation by black locust in short-rotation forests using natural 15N abundance method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Veste, M.; Böhm, C.; Quinckenstein, A.; Freese, D.

    2012-04-01

    The importance of short rotation forests and agroforestry systems for woody biomass production for bioenergy will increase in Central Europe within the next decades. In this context, black locust (Robinia pseudoacacia) has a high growth potential especially at marginal, drought-susceptible sites such as occur in Brandenburg State (Eastern Germany). As a pioneer tree species black locust grows under a wide range of site conditions. The native range of black locust in Northern America is classified by a humid to sub-humid climate with a mean annual precipitation of 1020 to 1830 mm. In Central and Eastern Europe, this species is cultivated in a more continental climate with an annual precipitation often below 600 mm. Therefore, black locust is known to be relatively drought tolerant compared to other temperate, deciduous tree species. Because of its N2-fixation ability black locust plays generally an important role for the improvement of soil fertility. This effect is of particular interest at marginal sites in the post-mining landscapes. In order to estimate the N2-fixation potential of black locust at marginal sites leaf samples were taken from black locust trees in short rotation plantations planted between 1995 and 2007 in post-mining sites south of Cottbus (Brandenburg, NE Germany). The variation of the natural 15N abundance was measured to evaluate the biological nitrogen fixation. The nitrogen derived from the atmosphere can be calculated using a two-pool model from the quotient of the natural 15N abundances of the N2-fixing plant and the plant available soil N. Because representatively determining the plant available soil N is difficult, a non-N2-fixing reference plant growing at the same site with a similar root system and temporal N uptake pattern to the N2-fixing plant is often used. In our case we used red oak (Quercus rubra) as a reference. The average nitrogen content in the leaves of black locust ranged from 3.1% (C/N 14.8) in 15 years old trees to 3

  20. Mapping of trophic states based on nutrients concentration and phytoplankton abundance in Jatibarang Reservoir

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rudiyanti, Siti; Anggoro, Sutrisno; Rahman, Arif

    2018-02-01

    Jatibarang Reservoir is one of the Indonesian Reservoirs, which used for human activities such as tourism and agriculture. These activities will provide input of organic matter and nutrients into the water. These materials will impact water quality and eutrophication process. Eutrophication is the water enrichment by nutrients, especially nitrogen and phosphorus which can promote the growth of phytoplankton. Some indicators of eutrophication are increasing nutrients, trophic states, and change of phytoplankton composition. The relationship between water quality and phytoplankton community can be used as an indicator of trophic states in Jatibarang Reservoir. The aim of this study was to analyze the effect of nutrients concentration and phytoplankton abundance to the trophic states and mapping trophic states based on nutrients concentration and phytoplankton in Jatibarang Reservoir. This study was conducted in June and July 2017 at 9 stations around Jatibarang Reservoir. The results showed that average concentration of nitrate, phosphate, and chlorophyll-a in Jatibarang Reservoir was 0.69 mg/L, 0.27 mg/L, and 1.66 mg/m3, respectively. The phytoplankton abundance ranged 16-62,200 cells/L, consists of 21 genera of four classes, i.e. Chlorophyceae, Cyanophyceae, Bacillariophyceae, and Dinophyceae. Cyanophyceae was a dominant phytoplankton group based on the composition of abundance (>80%). High nutrient concentrations and phytoplankton dominated by Anabaena (Cyanophyceae) which indicated that the waters in Jatibarang Reservoir were eutrophic.

  1. Rule-Based Flight Software Cost Estimation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stukes, Sherry A.; Spagnuolo, John N. Jr.

    2015-01-01

    This paper discusses the fundamental process for the computation of Flight Software (FSW) cost estimates. This process has been incorporated in a rule-based expert system [1] that can be used for Independent Cost Estimates (ICEs), Proposals, and for the validation of Cost Analysis Data Requirements (CADRe) submissions. A high-level directed graph (referred to here as a decision graph) illustrates the steps taken in the production of these estimated costs and serves as a basis of design for the expert system described in this paper. Detailed discussions are subsequently given elaborating upon the methodology, tools, charts, and caveats related to the various nodes of the graph. We present general principles for the estimation of FSW using SEER-SEM as an illustration of these principles when appropriate. Since Source Lines of Code (SLOC) is a major cost driver, a discussion of various SLOC data sources for the preparation of the estimates is given together with an explanation of how contractor SLOC estimates compare with the SLOC estimates used by JPL. Obtaining consistency in code counting will be presented as well as factors used in reconciling SLOC estimates from different code counters. When sufficient data is obtained, a mapping into the JPL Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) from the SEER-SEM output is illustrated. For across the board FSW estimates, as was done for the NASA Discovery Mission proposal estimates performed at JPL, a comparative high-level summary sheet for all missions with the SLOC, data description, brief mission description and the most relevant SEER-SEM parameter values is given to illustrate an encapsulation of the used and calculated data involved in the estimates. The rule-based expert system described provides the user with inputs useful or sufficient to run generic cost estimation programs. This system's incarnation is achieved via the C Language Integrated Production System (CLIPS) and will be addressed at the end of this paper.

  2. Utility and validation of day and night snorkel counts for estimating bull trout abundance in first-to-third order streams

    Treesearch

    Russell F. Thurow; James T. Peterson; John W. Guzevich

    2006-01-01

    Despite the widespread use of underwater observation to census stream-dwelling fishes, the accuracy of snorkeling methods has rarely been validated. We evaluated the efficiency of day and night snorkel counts for estimating the abundance of bull trout Salvelinus confluentus in 215 sites within first- to third-order streams. We used a dual-gear...

  3. Reward abundance interferes with error-based learning in a visuomotor adaptation task

    PubMed Central

    Oostwoud Wijdenes, Leonie; Rigterink, Tessa; Overvliet, Krista E.; Smeets, Joeren B. J.

    2018-01-01

    The brain rapidly adapts reaching movements to changing circumstances by using visual feedback about errors. Providing reward in addition to error feedback facilitates the adaptation but the underlying mechanism is unknown. Here, we investigate whether the proportion of trials rewarded (the ‘reward abundance’) influences how much participants adapt to their errors. We used a 3D multi-target pointing task in which reward alone is insufficient for motor adaptation. Participants (N = 423) performed the pointing task with feedback based on a shifted hand-position. On a proportion of trials we gave them rewarding feedback that their hand hit the target. Half of the participants only received this reward feedback. The other half also received feedback about endpoint errors. In different groups, we varied the proportion of trials that was rewarded. As expected, participants who received feedback about their errors did adapt, but participants who only received reward-feedback did not. Critically, participants who received abundant rewards adapted less to their errors than participants who received less reward. Thus, reward abundance negatively influences how much participants learn from their errors. Probably participants used a mechanism that relied more on the reward feedback when the reward was abundant. Because participants could not adapt to the reward, this interfered with adaptation to errors. PMID:29513681

  4. Diatom species abundance and morphologically-based dissolution proxies in coastal Southern Ocean assemblages

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Warnock, Jonathan P.; Scherer, Reed P.

    2015-07-01

    Taphonomic processes alter diatom assemblages in sediments, thus potentially negatively impacting paleoclimate records at various rates across space, time, and taxa. However, quantitative taphonomic data is rarely included in diatom-based paleoenvironmental reconstructions and no objective standard exists for comparing diatom dissolution in sediments recovered from marine depositional settings, including the Southern Ocean's opal belt. Furthermore, identifying changes to diatom dissolution through time can provide insight into the efficiency of both upper water column nutrient recycling and the biological pump. This is significant in that reactive metal proxies (e.g. Al, Ti) in the sediments only account for post-depositional dissolution, not the water column where the majority of dissolution occurs. In order to assess the range of variability of responses to dissolution in a typical Southern Ocean diatom community and provide a quantitative guideline for assessing taphonomic variability in diatoms recovered from core material, a sediment trap sample was subjected to controlled, serial dissolution. By evaluating dissolution-induced changes to diatom species' relative abundance, three preservational categories of diatoms have been identified: gracile, intermediate, and robust. The relative abundances of these categories can be used to establish a preservation grade for diatom assemblages. However, changes to the relative abundances of diatom species in sediment samples may reflect taphonomic or ecological factors. In order to address this complication, relative abundance changes have been tied to dissolution-induced morphological change to the areolae of Fragilariopsis curta, a significant sea-ice indicator in Southern Ocean sediments. This correlation allows differentiation between gracile species loss to dissolution versus ecological factors or sediment winnowing. These results mirror a similar morphological dissolution index from a parallel study utilizing

  5. Understanding Aggregation and Estimating Seasonal Abundance of Chrysaora quinquecirrha Medusae from a Fixed-station Time Series in the Choptank River, Chesapeake Bay

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tay, J.; Hood, R. R.

    2016-02-01

    Although jellyfish exert strong control over marine plankton dynamics (Richardson et al. 2009, Robison et al. 2014) and negatively impact human commercial and recreational activities (Purcell et al. 2007, Purcell 2012), jellyfish biomass is not well quantified due primarily to sampling difficulties with plankton nets or fisheries trawls (Haddock 2004). As a result, some of the longest records of jellyfish are visual shore-based surveys, such as the fixed-station time series of Chrysaora quinquecirrha that began in 1960 in the Patuxent River in Chesapeake Bay, USA (Cargo and King 1990). Time series counts from fixed-station surveys capture two signals: 1) demographic change at timescales on the order of reproductive processes and 2) spatial patchiness at shorter timescales as different parcels of water move in and out of the survey area by tidal and estuarine advection and turbulent mixing (Lee and McAlice 1979). In this study, our goal was to separate these two signals using a 4-year time series of C. quinquecirrha medusa counts from a fixed-station in the Choptank River, Chesapeake Bay. Idealized modeling of tidal and estuarine advection was used to conceptualize the sampling scheme. Change point and time series analysis was used to detect demographic changes. Indices of aggregation (Negative Binomial coefficient, Taylor's Power Law coefficient, and Morisita's Index) were calculated to describe the spatial patchiness of the medusae. Abundance estimates revealed a bloom cycle that differed in duration and magnitude for each of the study years. Indices of aggregation indicated that medusae were aggregated and that patches grew in the number of individuals, and likely in size, as abundance increased. Further inference from the conceptual modeling suggested that medusae patch structure was generally homogenous over the tidal extent. This study highlights the benefits of using fixed-station shore-based surveys for understanding the biology and ecology of jellyfish.

  6. View Estimation Based on Value System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Takahashi, Yasutake; Shimada, Kouki; Asada, Minoru

    Estimation of a caregiver's view is one of the most important capabilities for a child to understand the behavior demonstrated by the caregiver, that is, to infer the intention of behavior and/or to learn the observed behavior efficiently. We hypothesize that the child develops this ability in the same way as behavior learning motivated by an intrinsic reward, that is, he/she updates the model of the estimated view of his/her own during the behavior imitated from the observation of the behavior demonstrated by the caregiver based on minimizing the estimation error of the reward during the behavior. From this view, this paper shows a method for acquiring such a capability based on a value system from which values can be obtained by reinforcement learning. The parameters of the view estimation are updated based on the temporal difference error (hereafter TD error: estimation error of the state value), analogous to the way such that the parameters of the state value of the behavior are updated based on the TD error. Experiments with simple humanoid robots show the validity of the method, and the developmental process parallel to young children's estimation of its own view during the imitation of the observed behavior of the caregiver is discussed.

  7. Estimating juvenile Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) abundance from beach seine data collected in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta and San Francisco Bay, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Perry, Russell W.; Kirsch, Joseph E.; Hendrix, A. Noble

    2016-06-17

    Resource managers rely on abundance or density metrics derived from beach seine surveys to make vital decisions that affect fish population dynamics and assemblage structure. However, abundance and density metrics may be biased by imperfect capture and lack of geographic closure during sampling. Currently, there is considerable uncertainty about the capture efficiency of juvenile Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) by beach seines. Heterogeneity in capture can occur through unrealistic assumptions of closure and from variation in the probability of capture caused by environmental conditions. We evaluated the assumptions of closure and the influence of environmental conditions on capture efficiency and abundance estimates of Chinook salmon from beach seining within the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta and the San Francisco Bay. Beach seine capture efficiency was measured using a stratified random sampling design combined with open and closed replicate depletion sampling. A total of 56 samples were collected during the spring of 2014. To assess variability in capture probability and the absolute abundance of juvenile Chinook salmon, beach seine capture efficiency data were fitted to the paired depletion design using modified N-mixture models. These models allowed us to explicitly test the closure assumption and estimate environmental effects on the probability of capture. We determined that our updated method allowing for lack of closure between depletion samples drastically outperformed traditional data analysis that assumes closure among replicate samples. The best-fit model (lowest-valued Akaike Information Criterion model) included the probability of fish being available for capture (relaxed closure assumption), capture probability modeled as a function of water velocity and percent coverage of fine sediment, and abundance modeled as a function of sample area, temperature, and water velocity. Given that beach seining is a ubiquitous sampling technique for

  8. Estimating equations estimates of trends

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Link, W.A.; Sauer, J.R.

    1994-01-01

    The North American Breeding Bird Survey monitors changes in bird populations through time using annual counts at fixed survey sites. The usual method of estimating trends has been to use the logarithm of the counts in a regression analysis. It is contended that this procedure is reasonably satisfactory for more abundant species, but produces biased estimates for less abundant species. An alternative estimation procedure based on estimating equations is presented.

  9. Estimating the abundance of airborne pollen and fungal spores at variable elevations using an aircraft: how high can they fly?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Damialis, Athanasios; Kaimakamis, Evangelos; Konoglou, Maria; Akritidis, Ioannis; Traidl-Hoffmann, Claudia; Gioulekas, Dimitrios

    2017-03-01

    Airborne pollen and fungal spores are monitored mainly in highly populated, urban environments, for allergy prevention purposes. However, their sources can frequently be located outside cities’ fringes with more vegetation. So as to shed light to this paradox, we investigated the diversity and abundance of airborne pollen and fungal spores at various environmental regimes. We monitored pollen and spores using an aircraft and a car, at elevations from sea level to 2,000 m above ground, in the region of Thesssaloniki, Greece. We found a total of 24 pollen types and more than 15 spore types. Pollen and spores were detected throughout the elevational transect. Lower elevations exhibited higher pollen concentrations in only half of plant taxa and higher fungal spore concentrations in only Ustilago. Pinaceae and Quercus pollen were the most abundant recorded by airplane (>54% of the total). Poaceae pollen were the most abundant via car measurements (>77% of the total). Cladosporium and Alternaria spores were the most abundant in all cases (aircraft: >69% and >17%, car: >45% and >27%, respectively). We conclude that pollen and fungal spores can be diverse and abundant even outside the main source area, evidently because of long-distance transport incidents.

  10. Estimating the abundance of airborne pollen and fungal spores at variable elevations using an aircraft: how high can they fly?

    PubMed

    Damialis, Athanasios; Kaimakamis, Evangelos; Konoglou, Maria; Akritidis, Ioannis; Traidl-Hoffmann, Claudia; Gioulekas, Dimitrios

    2017-03-16

    Airborne pollen and fungal spores are monitored mainly in highly populated, urban environments, for allergy prevention purposes. However, their sources can frequently be located outside cities' fringes with more vegetation. So as to shed light to this paradox, we investigated the diversity and abundance of airborne pollen and fungal spores at various environmental regimes. We monitored pollen and spores using an aircraft and a car, at elevations from sea level to 2,000 m above ground, in the region of Thesssaloniki, Greece. We found a total of 24 pollen types and more than 15 spore types. Pollen and spores were detected throughout the elevational transect. Lower elevations exhibited higher pollen concentrations in only half of plant taxa and higher fungal spore concentrations in only Ustilago. Pinaceae and Quercus pollen were the most abundant recorded by airplane (>54% of the total). Poaceae pollen were the most abundant via car measurements (>77% of the total). Cladosporium and Alternaria spores were the most abundant in all cases (aircraft: >69% and >17%, car: >45% and >27%, respectively). We conclude that pollen and fungal spores can be diverse and abundant even outside the main source area, evidently because of long-distance transport incidents.

  11. Estimating the abundance of airborne pollen and fungal spores at variable elevations using an aircraft: how high can they fly?

    PubMed Central

    Damialis, Athanasios; Kaimakamis, Evangelos; Konoglou, Maria; Akritidis, Ioannis; Traidl-Hoffmann, Claudia; Gioulekas, Dimitrios

    2017-01-01

    Airborne pollen and fungal spores are monitored mainly in highly populated, urban environments, for allergy prevention purposes. However, their sources can frequently be located outside cities’ fringes with more vegetation. So as to shed light to this paradox, we investigated the diversity and abundance of airborne pollen and fungal spores at various environmental regimes. We monitored pollen and spores using an aircraft and a car, at elevations from sea level to 2,000 m above ground, in the region of Thesssaloniki, Greece. We found a total of 24 pollen types and more than 15 spore types. Pollen and spores were detected throughout the elevational transect. Lower elevations exhibited higher pollen concentrations in only half of plant taxa and higher fungal spore concentrations in only Ustilago. Pinaceae and Quercus pollen were the most abundant recorded by airplane (>54% of the total). Poaceae pollen were the most abundant via car measurements (>77% of the total). Cladosporium and Alternaria spores were the most abundant in all cases (aircraft: >69% and >17%, car: >45% and >27%, respectively). We conclude that pollen and fungal spores can be diverse and abundant even outside the main source area, evidently because of long-distance transport incidents. PMID:28300143

  12. A new solar carbon abundance based on non-LTE CN molecular spectra

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mount, G. H.; Linsky, J. L.

    1975-01-01

    A detailed non-LTE analysis of solar CN spectra strongly suggest a revised carbon abundance for the sun. We recommend a value of log carbon abundance = 8.35 plus or minus 0.15 which is significantly lower than the presently accepted value of log carbon abundance = 8.55. This revision may have important consequences in astrophysics.

  13. Including independent estimates and uncertainty to quantify total abundance of fish migrating in a large river system: walleye (Sander vitreus) in the Maumee River, Ohio

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Pritt, Jeremy J.; DuFour, Mark R.; Mayer, Christine M.; Kocovsky, Patrick M.; Tyson, Jeffrey T.; Weimer, Eric J.; Vandergoot, Christopher S.

    2013-01-01

    Walleye (Sander vitreus) in Lake Erie is a valuable and migratory species that spawns in tributaries. We used hydroacoustic sampling, gill net sampling, and Bayesian state-space modeling to estimate the spawning stock abundance, characterize size and sex structure, and explore environmental factors cuing migration of walleye in the Maumee River for 2011 and 2012. We estimated the spawning stock abundance to be between 431,000 and 1,446,000 individuals in 2011 and between 386,400 and 857,200 individuals in 2012 (95% Bayesian credible intervals). A back-calculation from a concurrent larval fish study produced an estimate of 78,000 to 237,000 spawners for 2011. The sex ratio was skewed towards males early in the spawning season but approached 1:1 later, and larger individuals entered the river earlier in the season than smaller individuals. Walleye migration was greater during low river discharge and intermediate temperatures. Our approach to estimating absolute abundance and uncertainty as well as characterization of the spawning stock could improve assessment and management of this species, and our methodology is applicable to other diadromous populations.

  14. Pan-Antarctic analysis aggregating spatial estimates of Adélie penguin abundance reveals robust dynamics despite stochastic noise.

    PubMed

    Che-Castaldo, Christian; Jenouvrier, Stephanie; Youngflesh, Casey; Shoemaker, Kevin T; Humphries, Grant; McDowall, Philip; Landrum, Laura; Holland, Marika M; Li, Yun; Ji, Rubao; Lynch, Heather J

    2017-10-10

    Colonially-breeding seabirds have long served as indicator species for the health of the oceans on which they depend. Abundance and breeding data are repeatedly collected at fixed study sites in the hopes that changes in abundance and productivity may be useful for adaptive management of marine resources, but their suitability for this purpose is often unknown. To address this, we fit a Bayesian population dynamics model that includes process and observation error to all known Adélie penguin abundance data (1982-2015) in the Antarctic, covering >95% of their population globally. We find that process error exceeds observation error in this system, and that continent-wide "year effects" strongly influence population growth rates. Our findings have important implications for the use of Adélie penguins in Southern Ocean feedback management, and suggest that aggregating abundance across space provides the fastest reliable signal of true population change for species whose dynamics are driven by stochastic processes.Adélie penguins are a key Antarctic indicator species, but data patchiness has challenged efforts to link population dynamics to key drivers. Che-Castaldo et al. resolve this issue using a pan-Antarctic Bayesian model to infer missing data, and show that spatial aggregation leads to more robust inference regarding dynamics.

  15. Evaluation of single and two-stage adaptive sampling designs for estimation of density and abundance of freshwater mussels in a large river

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Smith, D.R.; Rogala, J.T.; Gray, B.R.; Zigler, S.J.; Newton, T.J.

    2011-01-01

    Reliable estimates of abundance are needed to assess consequences of proposed habitat restoration and enhancement projects on freshwater mussels in the Upper Mississippi River (UMR). Although there is general guidance on sampling techniques for population assessment of freshwater mussels, the actual performance of sampling designs can depend critically on the population density and spatial distribution at the project site. To evaluate various sampling designs, we simulated sampling of populations, which varied in density and degree of spatial clustering. Because of logistics and costs of large river sampling and spatial clustering of freshwater mussels, we focused on adaptive and non-adaptive versions of single and two-stage sampling. The candidate designs performed similarly in terms of precision (CV) and probability of species detection for fixed sample size. Both CV and species detection were determined largely by density, spatial distribution and sample size. However, designs did differ in the rate that occupied quadrats were encountered. Occupied units had a higher probability of selection using adaptive designs than conventional designs. We used two measures of cost: sample size (i.e. number of quadrats) and distance travelled between the quadrats. Adaptive and two-stage designs tended to reduce distance between sampling units, and thus performed better when distance travelled was considered. Based on the comparisons, we provide general recommendations on the sampling designs for the freshwater mussels in the UMR, and presumably other large rivers.

  16. Estimates of abundance and diversity of Shewanella genus in natural and engineered aqueous environments with newly designed primers.

    PubMed

    Li, Bing-Bing; Cheng, Yuan-Yuan; Fan, Yang-Yang; Liu, Dong-Feng; Fang, Cai-Yun; Wu, Chao; Li, Wen-Wei; Yang, Zong-Chuang; Yu, Han-Qing

    2018-05-12

    Shewanella species have a diverse respiratory ability and wide distribution in environments and play an important role in bioremediation and the biogeochemical cycles of elements. Primers with more accuracy and broader coverage are required with consideration of the increasing number of Shewanella species and evaluation of their roles in various environments. In this work, a new primer set of 640F/815R was developed to quantify the abundance of Shewanella species in natural and engineered environments. In silico tools for primer evaluation, quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) and clone library results showed that 640F/815R had a higher specificity and coverage than the previous primers in quantitative analysis of Shewanella. Another newly developed primer pair of 211F/815cR was also adopted to analyze the Shewanella diversity and demonstrated to be the best candidate in terms of specificity and coverage. We detected more Shewanella-related species in freshwater environments and found them to be substantially different from those in marine environments. Abundance and diversity of Shewanella species in wastewater treatment plants were largely affected by the process and operating conditions. Overall, this study suggests that investigations of abundance and diversity of Shewanella in various environments are of great importance to evaluate their ecophysiology and potential ecological roles. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. A trait based perspective on the biogeography of common and abundant marine bacterioplankton clades.

    PubMed

    Brown, Mark V; Ostrowski, Martin; Grzymski, Joseph J; Lauro, Federico M

    2014-06-01

    Marine microbial communities provide much of the energy upon which all higher trophic levels depend, particularly in open-ocean and oligotrophic systems, and play a pivotal role in biogeochemical cycling. How and why species are distributed in the global oceans, and whether net ecosystem function can be accurately predicted from community composition are fundamental questions for marine scientists. Many of the most abundant clades of marine bacteria, including the Prochlorococcus, Synechococcus, SAR11, SAR86 and Roseobacter, have a very broad, if not a cosmopolitan distribution. However this is not reflected in an underlying genetic identity. Rather, widespread distribution in these organisms is achieved by the existence of closely related but discrete ecotypes that display niche adaptations. Closely related ecotypes display specific nutritional or energy generating mechanisms and are adapted to different physical parameters including temperature, salinity, and hydrostatic pressure. Furthermore, biotic phenomena such as selective grazing and viral loss contribute to the success or failure of ecotypes allowing some to compete effectively in particular marine provinces but not in others. An additional layer of complexity is added by ocean currents and hydrodynamic specificity of water body masses that bound microbial dispersal and immigration. These vary in space and time with respect to intensity and direction, making the definition of large biogeographic provinces problematic. A deterministic theory aimed at understanding how all these factors shape microbial life in the oceans can only proceed through analysis of microbial traits, rather than pure phylogenetic assessments. Trait based approaches seek mechanistic explanations for the observed temporal and spatial patterns. This review will present successful recent advances in phylogenetic and trait based biogeographic analyses in some of the most abundant marine taxa. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  18. A comparison of two collection methods for estimating abundance and parity of Anopheles albimanus in breeding sites and villages of southern Mexico.

    PubMed

    Ulloa, A; Rodríguez, M H; Rodríguez, A D; Roberts, D R

    1997-09-01

    The abundance and age structure of Anopheles albimanus populations were estimated by UV updraft light traps and human landing catches within villages and in nearby breeding sites of southern México. Four villages and 5 breeding sites were selected for the study. Light trap and human landing catches were simultaneously carried out in each breeding site and each village. Anopheles albimanus was the most abundant malaria vector caught in breeding sites and in villages. Significant differences in overall An. albimanus abundance among villages and among breeding sites were detected only by human landing catches. In both villages and breeding sites, more mosquitoes were captured by 1 human bait (34.3 +/- 6.3 and 14.6 +/- 2.9, respectively) than by one light trap (15.9 +/- 3.3 and 2.4 +/- 0.3 respectively) collection. After pooling, no significant differences were detected in the abundance estimated by each method in breeding sites and villages. A significant correlation of numbers of specimens between methods was detected. Age structure was different between samples from breeding sites and villages, with more gravid females collected in breeding sites, whereas more nulipars were collected in villages. By collection method, age structure was also different both in breeding sites and in villages. In breeding sites, the percentage of parous females was significantly higher in human landing catches, whereas the percentage of gravid females was significantly higher in light traps. In villages, only the percentage of gravid females was significantly higher in light traps. Our results suggests that UV light traps could be used to measure several entomological parameters of An. albimanus populations because both abundance variations and parity rates were similarly detected by both methods.

  19. Entropy-based adaptive attitude estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kiani, Maryam; Barzegar, Aylin; Pourtakdoust, Seid H.

    2018-03-01

    Gaussian approximation filters have increasingly been developed to enhance the accuracy of attitude estimation in space missions. The effective employment of these algorithms demands accurate knowledge of system dynamics and measurement models, as well as their noise characteristics, which are usually unavailable or unreliable. An innovation-based adaptive filtering approach has been adopted as a solution to this problem; however, it exhibits two major challenges, namely appropriate window size selection and guaranteed assurance of positive definiteness for the estimated noise covariance matrices. The current work presents two novel techniques based on relative entropy and confidence level concepts in order to address the abovementioned drawbacks. The proposed adaptation techniques are applied to two nonlinear state estimation algorithms of the extended Kalman filter and cubature Kalman filter for attitude estimation of a low earth orbit satellite equipped with three-axis magnetometers and Sun sensors. The effectiveness of the proposed adaptation scheme is demonstrated by means of comprehensive sensitivity analysis on the system and environmental parameters by using extensive independent Monte Carlo simulations.

  20. Small-mammal density estimation: A field comparison of grid-based vs. web-based density estimators

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Parmenter, R.R.; Yates, Terry L.; Anderson, D.R.; Burnham, K.P.; Dunnum, J.L.; Franklin, A.B.; Friggens, M.T.; Lubow, B.C.; Miller, M.; Olson, G.S.; Parmenter, Cheryl A.; Pollard, J.; Rexstad, E.; Shenk, T.M.; Stanley, T.R.; White, Gary C.

    2003-01-01

    blind” test allowed us to evaluate the influence of expertise and experience in calculating density estimates in comparison to simply using default values in programs CAPTURE and DISTANCE. While the rodent sample sizes were considerably smaller than the recommended minimum for good model results, we found that several models performed well empirically, including the web-based uniform and half-normal models in program DISTANCE, and the grid-based models Mb and Mbh in program CAPTURE (with AÌ‚ adjusted by species-specific full mean maximum distance moved (MMDM) values). These models produced accurate DÌ‚ values (with 95% confidence intervals that included the true D values) and exhibited acceptable bias but poor precision. However, in linear regression analyses comparing each model's DÌ‚ values to the true D values over the range of observed test densities, only the web-based uniform model exhibited a regression slope near 1.0; all other models showed substantial slope deviations, indicating biased estimates at higher or lower density values. In addition, the grid-based DÌ‚ analyses using full MMDM values for WÌ‚ area adjustments required a number of theoretical assumptions of uncertain validity, and we therefore viewed their empirical successes with caution. Finally, density estimates from the independent analysts were highly variable, but estimates from web-based approaches had smaller mean square errors and better achieved confidence-interval coverage of D than did grid-based approaches. Our results support the contention that web-based approaches for density estimation of small-mammal populations are both theoretically and empirically superior to grid-based approaches, even when sample size is far less than often recommended. In view of the increasing need for standardized environmental measures for comparisons among ecosystems and through time, analytical models based on distance sampling appear to offer accurate density estimation approaches for research

  1. Muscle parameters estimation based on biplanar radiography.

    PubMed

    Dubois, G; Rouch, P; Bonneau, D; Gennisson, J L; Skalli, W

    2016-11-01

    The evaluation of muscle and joint forces in vivo is still a challenge. Musculo-Skeletal (musculo-skeletal) models are used to compute forces based on movement analysis. Most of them are built from a scaled-generic model based on cadaver measurements, which provides a low level of personalization, or from Magnetic Resonance Images, which provide a personalized model in lying position. This study proposed an original two steps method to access a subject-specific musculo-skeletal model in 30 min, which is based solely on biplanar X-Rays. First, the subject-specific 3D geometry of bones and skin envelopes were reconstructed from biplanar X-Rays radiography. Then, 2200 corresponding control points were identified between a reference model and the subject-specific X-Rays model. Finally, the shape of 21 lower limb muscles was estimated using a non-linear transformation between the control points in order to fit the muscle shape of the reference model to the X-Rays model. Twelfth musculo-skeletal models were reconstructed and compared to their reference. The muscle volume was not accurately estimated with a standard deviation (SD) ranging from 10 to 68%. However, this method provided an accurate estimation the muscle line of action with a SD of the length difference lower than 2% and a positioning error lower than 20 mm. The moment arm was also well estimated with SD lower than 15% for most muscle, which was significantly better than scaled-generic model for most muscle. This method open the way to a quick modeling method for gait analysis based on biplanar radiography.

  2. Uncertainty estimation for map-based analyses

    Treesearch

    Ronald E. McRoberts; Mark A. Hatfield; Susan J. Crocker

    2010-01-01

    Traditionally, natural resource managers have asked the question, “How much?” and have received sample-based estimates of resource totals or means. Increasingly, however, the same managers are now asking the additional question, “Where?” and are expecting spatially explicit answers in the form of maps. Recent development of natural resource databases, access to...

  3. Use of motor abundance in old adults in the regulation of a narrow-based stance.

    PubMed

    Hsu, Wei-Li; Lin, Kwan-Hwa; Yang, Rong-Sen; Cheng, Chih-Hsiu

    2014-02-01

    The ability to maintain stable balance while standing decreases with age. The body must coordinate multiple joints using "freeze" or "free" strategy, or a combination of both to ensure balance stability. The purpose of this study was to examine age-related changes in the use of motor abundance during upright stance on a narrow base without visual input. Uncontrolled manifold (UCM) analysis was used to decompose the movement variability of joints into goal-equivalent variability (GEV) and non-goal-equivalent variability (NGEV). The ratio between GEV and NGEV (UCM(ratio)) quantifies the joint coordination related to postural stability, and a high UCM(ratio) value indicates flexible control of joints. To perform balance tests, participants in this study (healthy young and old adults, 20 each) were asked to stand on a flat platform and on narrow wooden blocks with their eyes open and then eyes closed. In upright balance tests, both old and young adults maintained postural stability. GEV was greater than NGEV across all participants and conditions. However, GEV was higher in the young adults than in the old adults, whereas NGEV was higher in the old adults than in the young adults. Therefore, the old adults exhibited a lower UCM(ratio) than the young adults. The old adults were unable to exploit motor abundance and used a less flexible multi-joint coordination pattern to achieve stable balance. The UCM(ratio) value reflects the quality of postural control and can be used for assessing joint coordination in balance disorders.

  4. Model-Based Estimation of Knee Stiffness

    PubMed Central

    Pfeifer, Serge; Vallery, Heike; Hardegger, Michael; Riener, Robert; Perreault, Eric J.

    2013-01-01

    During natural locomotion, the stiffness of the human knee is modulated continuously and subconsciously according to the demands of activity and terrain. Given modern actuator technology, powered transfemoral prostheses could theoretically provide a similar degree of sophistication and function. However, experimentally quantifying knee stiffness modulation during natural gait is challenging. Alternatively, joint stiffness could be estimated in a less disruptive manner using electromyography (EMG) combined with kinetic and kinematic measurements to estimate muscle force, together with models that relate muscle force to stiffness. Here we present the first step in that process, where we develop such an approach and evaluate it in isometric conditions, where experimental measurements are more feasible. Our EMG-guided modeling approach allows us to consider conditions with antagonistic muscle activation, a phenomenon commonly observed in physiological gait. Our validation shows that model-based estimates of knee joint stiffness coincide well with experimental data obtained using conventional perturbation techniques. We conclude that knee stiffness can be accurately estimated in isometric conditions without applying perturbations, which presents an important step towards our ultimate goal of quantifying knee stiffness during gait. PMID:22801482

  5. Turning Earth Abundant Kesterite-Based Solar Cells Into Efficient Protected Water-Splitting Photocathodes.

    PubMed

    Ros, Carles; Andreu, Teresa; Giraldo, Sergio; Izquierdo-Roca, Victor; Saucedo, Edgardo; Morante, Joan Ramon

    2018-04-25

    CZTS/Se kesterite-based solar cells have been protected by conformal atomic layer deposition (ALD)-deposited TiO 2 demonstrating its feasibility as powerful photocathodes for water splitting in highly acidic conditions (pH < 1), achieving stability with no detected degradation and with current density levels similar to photovoltaic productivities. The ALD has allowed low deposition temperatures of 200 °C for TiO 2 , preventing significant variations to the kesterite structure and CdS heterojunction, except for the pure-sulfide stoichiometry, which was studied by Raman spectroscopy. The measured photocurrent at 0 V vs reversible hydrogen electrode, 37 mA·cm -2 , is the highest reported to date, and the associated half-cell solar-to-hydrogen efficiency reached 7%, being amongst the largest presented for kesterite-based photocathodes, corroborating the possibility of using them as abundant low-cost alternative photoabsorbers as their efficiencies are improved toward those of chalcopyrites. An electrical circuit has been proposed to model the photocathode, which comprises the photon absorption, charge transfer through the protective layer, and catalytic performance, which paves the way to the design of highly efficient photoelectrodes.

  6. The Camera-Based Assessment Survey System (C-BASS): A towed camera platform for reef fish abundance surveys and benthic habitat characterization in the Gulf of Mexico

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lembke, Chad; Grasty, Sarah; Silverman, Alex; Broadbent, Heather; Butcher, Steven; Murawski, Steven

    2017-12-01

    An ongoing challenge for fisheries management is to provide cost-effective and timely estimates of habitat stratified fish densities. Traditional approaches use modified commercial fishing gear (such as trawls and baited hooks) that have biases in species selectivity and may also be inappropriate for deployment in some habitat types. Underwater visual and optical approaches offer the promise of more precise and less biased assessments of relative fish abundance, as well as direct estimates of absolute fish abundance. A number of video-based approaches have been developed and the technology for data acquisition, calibration, and synthesis has been developing rapidly. Beginning in 2012, our group of engineers and researchers at the University of South Florida has been working towards the goal of completing large scale, video-based surveys in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This paper discusses design considerations and development of a towed camera system for collection of video-based data on commercially and recreationally important reef fishes and benthic habitat on the West Florida Shelf. Factors considered during development included potential habitat types to be assessed, sea-floor bathymetry, vessel support requirements, personnel requirements, and cost-effectiveness of system components. This regional-specific effort has resulted in a towed platform called the Camera-Based Assessment Survey System, or C-BASS, which has proven capable of surveying tens of kilometers of video transects per day and has the ability to cost-effective population estimates of reef fishes and coincident benthic habitat classification.

  7. Incorporating abundance information and guiding variable selection for climate-based ensemble forecasting of species' distributional shifts.

    PubMed

    Tanner, Evan P; Papeş, Monica; Elmore, R Dwayne; Fuhlendorf, Samuel D; Davis, Craig A

    2017-01-01

    Ecological niche models (ENMs) have increasingly been used to estimate the potential effects of climate change on species' distributions worldwide. Recently, predictions of species abundance have also been obtained with such models, though knowledge about the climatic variables affecting species abundance is often lacking. To address this, we used a well-studied guild (temperate North American quail) and the Maxent modeling algorithm to compare model performance of three variable selection approaches: correlation/variable contribution (CVC), biological (i.e., variables known to affect species abundance), and random. We then applied the best approach to forecast potential distributions, under future climatic conditions, and analyze future potential distributions in light of available abundance data and presence-only occurrence data. To estimate species' distributional shifts we generated ensemble forecasts using four global circulation models, four representative concentration pathways, and two time periods (2050 and 2070). Furthermore, we present distributional shifts where 75%, 90%, and 100% of our ensemble models agreed. The CVC variable selection approach outperformed our biological approach for four of the six species. Model projections indicated species-specific effects of climate change on future distributions of temperate North American quail. The Gambel's quail (Callipepla gambelii) was the only species predicted to gain area in climatic suitability across all three scenarios of ensemble model agreement. Conversely, the scaled quail (Callipepla squamata) was the only species predicted to lose area in climatic suitability across all three scenarios of ensemble model agreement. Our models projected future loss of areas for the northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus) and scaled quail in portions of their distributions which are currently areas of high abundance. Climatic variables that influence local abundance may not always scale up to influence species

  8. Spring evolution of Pseudocalanus spp. abundance on Georges Bank based on molecular discrimination of P. moultoni and P. newmani1

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bucklin, Ann; Guarnieri, Maria; McGillicuddy, Dennis J.; Sean Hill, R.

    The planktonic copepod sibling species Pseudocalanus moultoni and P. newmani (Crustacea, Copepoda) are abundant in waters over Georges Bank from late winter until mid-summer and are thought to reproduce throughout this period. The two species cannot be reliably distinguished using morphological characters, but are readily identified and distinguished by simple, rapid, and inexpensive molecular protocols based on sequence variation of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA). DNA sequence variation of a portion of the mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase I (mtCOI) confirmed the presence of P. moultoni and P. newmani on Georges Bank; the mtCOI sequences were used to design species-specific oligonucleotide primers for use in a competitive multiplexed species-specific polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Species-specific PCR was used to determine the relative abundances of the two species in sub-samples of zooplankton collections from US GLOBEC Georges Bank Study Broadscale Surveys from February to June, 1997. Based on monthly visualizations, we inferred the spring evolution of the two species' distributions and abundances on Georges Bank. Both species' overall abundances increased from February to May or June: maximum abundance of P. moultoni was 38,061 m -2 in surface waters on the crest of Georges Bank in June; maximum abundance of P. newmani was 13,854 m -2 in subsurface waters on the Northeast Peak in April. The Peak in distribution of P. moultoni shifted from Georges Basin in April, to the northern edge of the Bank in May, to the center of the Bank in June. In contrast, P. newmani was more abundant to the south and east of the Bank. Beginning in April, P. newmani occurred on the Bank but was less abundant and less widely-distributed than P. moultoni; P. newmani abundance peaked in May and declined somewhat in June. Females of the species differed in their patterns of distribution and abundance, with P. moultoni always the more abundant species on the crest of the Bank. The spring

  9. Model-based estimation of individual fitness

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Link, W.A.; Cooch, E.G.; Cam, E.

    2002-01-01

    Fitness is the currency of natural selection, a measure of the propagation rate of genotypes into future generations. Its various definitions have the common feature that they are functions of survival and fertility rates. At the individual level, the operative level for natural selection, these rates must be understood as latent features, genetically determined propensities existing at birth. This conception of rates requires that individual fitness be defined and estimated by consideration of the individual in a modelled relation to a group of similar individuals; the only alternative is to consider a sample of size one, unless a clone of identical individuals is available. We present hierarchical models describing individual heterogeneity in survival and fertility rates and allowing for associations between these rates at the individual level. We apply these models to an analysis of life histories of Kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla ) observed at several colonies on the Brittany coast of France. We compare Bayesian estimation of the population distribution of individual fitness with estimation based on treating individual life histories in isolation, as samples of size one (e.g. McGraw & Caswell, 1996).

  10. Model-based estimation of individual fitness

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Link, W.A.; Cooch, E.G.; Cam, E.

    2002-01-01

    Fitness is the currency of natural selection, a measure of the propagation rate of genotypes into future generations. Its various definitions have the common feature that they are functions of survival and fertility rates. At the individual level, the operative level for natural selection, these rates must be understood as latent features, genetically determined propensities existing at birth. This conception of rates requires that individual fitness be defined and estimated by consideration of the individual in a modelled relation to a group of similar individuals; the only alternative is to consider a sample of size one, unless a clone of identical individuals is available. We present hierarchical models describing individual heterogeneity in survival and fertility rates and allowing for associations between these rates at the individual level. We apply these models to an analysis of life histories of Kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla) observed at several colonies on the Brittany coast of France. We compare Bayesian estimation of the population distribution of individual fitness with estimation based on treating individual life histories in isolation, as samples of size one (e.g. McGraw and Caswell, 1996).

  11. Lakewide estimates of alewife biomass and Chinook salmon abundance and consumption in Lake Ontario, 1989–2005: implications for prey fish sustainability

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Murry, Brent A.; Connerton, Michael J.; O'Gorman, Robert; Stewart, Donald J.; Ringlerd, Neil H.

    2010-01-01

    Stocking levels of Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha for Lake Ontario have been highly controversial since the early 1990s, largely because of uncertainties about lakewide abundance and rates of prey consumption. Previous estimates have focused on years before 1995; since then, however, the Lake Ontario ecosystem has undergone substantial changes, and there is new evidence of extensive natural recruitment. Presented here are new abundance estimates of Chinook salmon and alewives Alosa pseudoharengus in Lake Ontario and a reevaluation of the potential risk of alewife population collapse. We found that Lake Ontario has been supporting, on average (1989–2005), 1.83 × 106 (range, 1.08 × 106 to 3.24 × 106) Chinook salmon of ages 1–4, amounting to a mean annual biomass of 11.33 × 103 metric tons (range, 5.83 × 103 to 23.04 × 103 metric tons). During the same period (1989–2005), the lake supported an alewife biomass of 173.66 × 103 metric tons (range, 62.37 × 103 to 345.49 × 103 metric tons); Chinook salmon of ages 1–4 consumed, on average, 22% (range, 11–44%) of the alewife biomass annually. Because our estimates probably underestimate total consumption and because Chinook salmon are only one of several salmonine species that depend on alewives, predation pressure on the Lake Ontario alewife population may be high enough to raise concerns about long-term stability of this predator–prey system.

  12. Estimation of the Relative Abundance of Different Bacteroides and Prevotella Ribotypes in Gut Samples by Restriction Enzyme Profiling of PCR-Amplified 16S rRNA Gene Sequences

    PubMed Central

    Wood, Jacqueline; Scott, Karen P.; Avguštin, Gorazd; Newbold, C. James; Flint, Harry J.

    1998-01-01

    We describe an approach for determining the genetic composition of Bacteroides and Prevotella populations in gut contents based on selective amplification of 16S rRNA gene sequences (rDNA) followed by cleavage of the amplified material with restriction enzymes. The relative contributions of different ribotypes to total Bacteroides and Prevotella 16S rDNA are estimated after end labelling of one of the PCR primers, and the contribution of Bacteroides and Prevotella sequences to total eubacterial 16S rDNA is estimated by measuring the binding of oligonucleotide probes to amplified DNA. Bacteroides and Prevotella 16S rDNA accounted for between 12 and 62% of total eubacterial 16S rDNA in samples of ruminal contents from six sheep and a cow. Ribotypes 4, 5, 6, and 7, which include most cultivated rumen Prevotella strains, together accounted for between 20 and 86% of the total amplified Bacteroides and Prevotella rDNA in these samples. The most abundant Bacteroides or Prevotella ribotype in four animals, however, was ribotype 8, for which there is only one known cultured isolate, while ribotypes 1 and 2, which include many colonic Bacteroides spp., were the most abundant in two animals. This indicates that some abundant Bacteroides and Prevotella groups in the rumen are underrepresented among cultured rumen Prevotella isolates. The approach described here provides a rapid, convenient, and widely applicable method for comparing the genotypic composition of bacterial populations in gut samples. PMID:9758785

  13. Polyoxometalate electrocatalysts based on earth-abundant metals for efficient water oxidation in acidic media

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blasco-Ahicart, Marta; Soriano-López, Joaquín; Carbó, Jorge J.; Poblet, Josep M.; Galan-Mascaros, J. R.

    2018-01-01

    Water splitting is a promising approach to the efficient and cost-effective production of renewable fuels, but water oxidation remains a bottleneck in its technological development because it largely relies on noble-metal catalysts. Although inexpensive transition-metal oxides are competitive water oxidation catalysts in alkaline media, they cannot compete with noble metals in acidic media, in which hydrogen production is easier and faster. Here, we report a water oxidation catalyst based on earth-abundant metals that performs well in acidic conditions. Specifically, we report the enhanced catalytic activity of insoluble salts of polyoxometalates with caesium or barium counter-cations for oxygen evolution. In particular, the barium salt of a cobalt-phosphotungstate polyanion outperforms the state-of-the-art IrO2 catalyst even at pH < 1, with an overpotential of 189 mV at 1 mA cm-2. In addition, we find that a carbon-paste conducting support with a hydrocarbon binder can improve the stability of metal-oxide catalysts in acidic media by providing a hydrophobic environment.

  14. Microclimate Data Improve Predictions of Insect Abundance Models Based on Calibrated Spatiotemporal Temperatures.

    PubMed

    Rebaudo, François; Faye, Emile; Dangles, Olivier

    2016-01-01

    A large body of literature has recently recognized the role of microclimates in controlling the physiology and ecology of species, yet the relevance of fine-scale climatic data for modeling species performance and distribution remains a matter of debate. Using a 6-year monitoring of three potato moth species, major crop pests in the tropical Andes, we asked whether the spatiotemporal resolution of temperature data affect the predictions of models of moth performance and distribution. For this, we used three different climatic data sets: (i) the WorldClim dataset (global dataset), (ii) air temperature recorded using data loggers (weather station dataset), and (iii) air crop canopy temperature (microclimate dataset). We developed a statistical procedure to calibrate all datasets to monthly and yearly variation in temperatures, while keeping both spatial and temporal variances (air monthly temperature at 1 km² for the WorldClim dataset, air hourly temperature for the weather station, and air minute temperature over 250 m radius disks for the microclimate dataset). Then, we computed pest performances based on these three datasets. Results for temperature ranging from 9 to 11°C revealed discrepancies in the simulation outputs in both survival and development rates depending on the spatiotemporal resolution of the temperature dataset. Temperature and simulated pest performances were then combined into multiple linear regression models to compare predicted vs. field data. We used an additional set of study sites to test the ability of the results of our model to be extrapolated over larger scales. Results showed that the model implemented with microclimatic data best predicted observed pest abundances for our study sites, but was less accurate than the global dataset model when performed at larger scales. Our simulations therefore stress the importance to consider different temperature datasets depending on the issue to be solved in order to accurately predict species

  15. Microclimate Data Improve Predictions of Insect Abundance Models Based on Calibrated Spatiotemporal Temperatures

    PubMed Central

    Rebaudo, François; Faye, Emile; Dangles, Olivier

    2016-01-01

    A large body of literature has recently recognized the role of microclimates in controlling the physiology and ecology of species, yet the relevance of fine-scale climatic data for modeling species performance and distribution remains a matter of debate. Using a 6-year monitoring of three potato moth species, major crop pests in the tropical Andes, we asked whether the spatiotemporal resolution of temperature data affect the predictions of models of moth performance and distribution. For this, we used three different climatic data sets: (i) the WorldClim dataset (global dataset), (ii) air temperature recorded using data loggers (weather station dataset), and (iii) air crop canopy temperature (microclimate dataset). We developed a statistical procedure to calibrate all datasets to monthly and yearly variation in temperatures, while keeping both spatial and temporal variances (air monthly temperature at 1 km² for the WorldClim dataset, air hourly temperature for the weather station, and air minute temperature over 250 m radius disks for the microclimate dataset). Then, we computed pest performances based on these three datasets. Results for temperature ranging from 9 to 11°C revealed discrepancies in the simulation outputs in both survival and development rates depending on the spatiotemporal resolution of the temperature dataset. Temperature and simulated pest performances were then combined into multiple linear regression models to compare predicted vs. field data. We used an additional set of study sites to test the ability of the results of our model to be extrapolated over larger scales. Results showed that the model implemented with microclimatic data best predicted observed pest abundances for our study sites, but was less accurate than the global dataset model when performed at larger scales. Our simulations therefore stress the importance to consider different temperature datasets depending on the issue to be solved in order to accurately predict species

  16. From pest data to abundance-based risk maps combining eco-physiological knowledge, weather, and habitat variability.

    PubMed

    Lacasella, Federica; Marta, Silvio; Singh, Aditya; Stack Whitney, Kaitlin; Hamilton, Krista; Townsend, Phil; Kucharik, Christopher J; Meehan, Timothy D; Gratton, Claudio

    2017-03-01

    Noxious species, i.e., crop pest or invasive alien species, are major threats to both natural and managed ecosystems. Invasive pests are of special importance, and knowledge about their distribution and abundance is fundamental to minimize economic losses and prioritize management activities. Occurrence models are a common tool used to identify suitable zones and map priority areas (i.e., risk maps) for noxious species management, although they provide a simplified description of species dynamics (i.e., no indication on species density). An alternative is to use abundance models, but translating abundance data into risk maps is often challenging. Here, we describe a general framework for generating abundance-based risk maps using multi-year pest data. We used an extensive data set of 3968 records collected between 2003 and 2013 in Wisconsin during annual surveys of soybean aphid (SBA), an exotic invasive pest in this region. By using an integrative approach, we modelled SBA responses to weather, seasonal, and habitat variability using generalized additive models (GAMs). Our models showed good to excellent performance in predicting SBA occurrence and abundance (TSS = 0.70, AUC = 0.92; R 2  = 0.63). We found that temperature, precipitation, and growing degree days were the main drivers of SBA trends. In addition, a significant positive relationship between SBA abundance and the availability of overwintering habitats was observed. Our models showed aphid populations were also sensitive to thresholds associated with high and low temperatures, likely related to physiological tolerances of the insects. Finally, the resulting aphid predictions were integrated using a spatial prioritization algorithm ("Zonation") to produce an abundance-based risk map for the state of Wisconsin that emphasized the spatiotemporal consistency and magnitude of past infestation patterns. This abundance-based risk map can provide information on potential foci of pest outbreaks where

  17. Estimation of phenotypic variability in symbiotic nitrogen fixation ability of common bean under drought stress using 15N natural abundance in grain.

    PubMed

    Polania, Jose; Poschenrieder, Charlotte; Rao, Idupulapati; Beebe, Stephen

    2016-09-01

    Common bean ( Phaseolus vulgaris L.) is the most important food legume, cultivated by small farmers and is usually exposed to unfavorable conditions with minimum use of inputs. Drought and low soil fertility, especially phosphorus and nitrogen (N) deficiencies, are major limitations to bean yield in smallholder systems. Beans can derive part of their required N from the atmosphere through symbiotic nitrogen fixation (SNF). Drought stress severely limits SNF ability of plants. The main objectives of this study were to: (i) test and validate the use of 15 N natural abundance in grain to quantify phenotypic differences in SNF ability for its implementation in breeding programs of common bean with bush growth habit aiming to improve SNF, and (ii) quantify phenotypic differences in SNF under drought to identify superior genotypes that could serve as parents. Field studies were conducted at CIAT-Palmira, Colombia using a set of 36 bean genotypes belonging to the Middle American gene pool for evaluation in two seasons with two levels of water supply (irrigated and drought stress). We used 15 N natural abundance method to compare SNF ability estimated from shoot tissue sampled at mid-pod filling growth stage vs. grain tissue sampled at harvest. Our results showed positive and significant correlation between nitrogen derived from the atmosphere (%Ndfa) estimated using shoot tissue at mid-pod filling and %Ndfa estimated using grain tissue at harvest. Both methods showed phenotypic variability in SNF ability under both drought and irrigated conditions and a significant reduction in SNF ability was observed under drought stress. We suggest that the method of estimating Ndfa using grain tissue (Ndfa-G) could be applied in bean breeding programs to improve SNF ability. Using this method of Ndfa-G, we identified four bean lines (RCB 593, SEA 15, NCB 226 and BFS 29) that combine greater SNF ability with greater grain yield under drought stress and these could serve as potential

  18. Small-scale temporal and spatial variability in the abundance of plastic pellets on sandy beaches: Methodological considerations for estimating the input of microplastics.

    PubMed

    Moreira, Fabiana Tavares; Prantoni, Alessandro Lívio; Martini, Bruno; de Abreu, Michelle Alves; Stoiev, Sérgio Biato; Turra, Alexander

    2016-01-15

    Microplastics such as pellets have been reported for many years on sandy beaches around the globe. Nevertheless, high variability is observed in their estimates and distribution patterns across the beach environment are still to be unravelled. Here, we investigate the small-scale temporal and spatial variability in the abundance of pellets in the intertidal zone of a sandy beach and evaluate factors that can increase the variability in data sets. The abundance of pellets was estimated during twelve consecutive tidal cycles, identifying the position of the high tide between cycles and sampling drift-lines across the intertidal zone. We demonstrate that beach dynamic processes such as the overlap of strandlines and artefacts of the methods can increase the small-scale variability. The results obtained are discussed in terms of the methodological considerations needed to understand the distribution of pellets in the beach environment, with special implications for studies focused on patterns of input. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Particle Pollution Estimation Based on Image Analysis.

    PubMed

    Liu, Chenbin; Tsow, Francis; Zou, Yi; Tao, Nongjian

    2016-01-01

    Exposure to fine particles can cause various diseases, and an easily accessible method to monitor the particles can help raise public awareness and reduce harmful exposures. Here we report a method to estimate PM air pollution based on analysis of a large number of outdoor images available for Beijing, Shanghai (China) and Phoenix (US). Six image features were extracted from the images, which were used, together with other relevant data, such as the position of the sun, date, time, geographic information and weather conditions, to predict PM2.5 index. The results demonstrate that the image analysis method provides good prediction of PM2.5 indexes, and different features have different significance levels in the prediction.

  20. Particle Pollution Estimation Based on Image Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Chenbin; Tsow, Francis; Zou, Yi; Tao, Nongjian

    2016-01-01

    Exposure to fine particles can cause various diseases, and an easily accessible method to monitor the particles can help raise public awareness and reduce harmful exposures. Here we report a method to estimate PM air pollution based on analysis of a large number of outdoor images available for Beijing, Shanghai (China) and Phoenix (US). Six image features were extracted from the images, which were used, together with other relevant data, such as the position of the sun, date, time, geographic information and weather conditions, to predict PM2.5 index. The results demonstrate that the image analysis method provides good prediction of PM2.5 indexes, and different features have different significance levels in the prediction. PMID:26828757

  1. Distribution and abundance of red tree voles in Oregon based on occurrence in pellets of northern spotted owls.

    Treesearch

    Eric D. Forsman; Robert G. Anthony; Cynthia J. Zabel

    2004-01-01

    Red tree voles are one of the least understood small mammals in the Pacific Northwest, because they live in the forest canopy and are difficult to sample using conventional trapping methods. We examined the distribution and relative abundance of tree voles in different regions of Oregon based on their occurrence in diets of northern spotted owls. We identified the...

  2. Constrained map-based inventory estimation

    Treesearch

    Paul C. Van Deusen; Francis A. Roesch

    2007-01-01

    A region can conceptually be tessellated into polygons at different scales or resolutions. Likewise, samples can be taken from the region to determine the value of a polygon variable for each scale. Sampled polygons can be used to estimate values for other polygons at the same scale. However, estimates should be compatible across the different scales. Estimates are...

  3. Using GIS mapping of the extent of nearshore rocky reefs to estimate the abundance and reproductive output of important fishery species.

    PubMed

    Claisse, Jeremy T; Pondella, Daniel J; Williams, Jonathan P; Sadd, James

    2012-01-01

    Kelp Bass (Paralabrax clathratus) and California Sheephead (Semicossyphus pulcher) are economically and ecologically valuable rocky reef fishes in southern California, making them likely indicator species for evaluating resource management actions. Multiple spatial datasets, aerial and satellite photography, underwater observations and expert judgment were used to produce a comprehensive map of nearshore natural rocky reef habitat for the Santa Monica Bay region (California, USA). It was then used to examine the relative contribution of individual reefs to a regional estimate of abundance and reproductive potential of the focal species. For the reefs surveyed for fishes (i.e. 18 out of the 22 in the region, comprising 82% the natural rocky reef habitat <30 m depth, with a total area of 1850 ha), total abundance and annual egg production of California Sheephead were 451 thousand fish (95% CI: 369 to 533 thousand) and 203 billion eggs (95% CI: 135 to 272 billion). For Kelp Bass, estimates were 805 thousand fish (95% CI: 669 to 941 thousand) and 512 billion eggs (95% CI: 414 to 610 billion). Size structure and reef area were key factors in reef-specific contributions to the regional egg production. The size structures of both species illustrated impacts from fishing, and results demonstrate the potential that relatively small increases in the proportion of large females on larger reefs could have on regional egg production. For California Sheephead, a substantial proportion of the regional egg production estimate (>30%) was produced from a relatively small proportion of the regional reef area (c. 10%). Natural nearshore rocky reefs make up only 11% of the area in the newly designated MPAs in this region, but results provide some optimism that regional fisheries could benefit through an increase in overall reproductive output, if adequate increases in size structure of targeted species are realized.

  4. Using GIS Mapping of the Extent of Nearshore Rocky Reefs to Estimate the Abundance and Reproductive Output of Important Fishery Species

    PubMed Central

    Claisse, Jeremy T.; Pondella, Daniel J.; Williams, Jonathan P.; Sadd, James

    2012-01-01

    Kelp Bass (Paralabrax clathratus) and California Sheephead (Semicossyphus pulcher) are economically and ecologically valuable rocky reef fishes in southern California, making them likely indicator species for evaluating resource management actions. Multiple spatial datasets, aerial and satellite photography, underwater observations and expert judgment were used to produce a comprehensive map of nearshore natural rocky reef habitat for the Santa Monica Bay region (California, USA). It was then used to examine the relative contribution of individual reefs to a regional estimate of abundance and reproductive potential of the focal species. For the reefs surveyed for fishes (i.e. 18 out of the 22 in the region, comprising 82% the natural rocky reef habitat <30 m depth, with a total area of 1850 ha), total abundance and annual egg production of California Sheephead were 451 thousand fish (95% CI: 369 to 533 thousand) and 203 billion eggs (95% CI: 135 to 272 billion). For Kelp Bass, estimates were 805 thousand fish (95% CI: 669 to 941thousand) and 512 billion eggs (95% CI: 414 to 610 billion). Size structure and reef area were key factors in reef-specific contributions to the regional egg production. The size structures of both species illustrated impacts from fishing, and results demonstrate the potential that relatively small increases in the proportion of large females on larger reefs could have on regional egg production. For California Sheephead, a substantial proportion of the regional egg production estimate (>30%) was produced from a relatively small proportion of the regional reef area (c. 10%). Natural nearshore rocky reefs make up only 11% of the area in the newly designated MPAs in this region, but results provide some optimism that regional fisheries could benefit through an increase in overall reproductive output, if adequate increases in size structure of targeted species are realized. PMID:22272326

  5. Abundance analysis of the supergiant stars HD 80057 and HD 80404 based on their UVES Spectra

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tanrıverdi, T.; Baştürk, Ö.

    2016-08-01

    This study presents elemental abundances of the early A-type supergiant HD 80057 and the late A-type supergiant HD 80404. High resolution and high signal-to-noise ratio spectra published by the UVES Paranal Observatory Project (Bagnulo et al., 2003) were analyzed to compute their elemental abundances using ATLAS9 (Kurucz, 1993; 2005; Sbordone et al., 2004). In our analysis we assumed local thermodynamic equilibrium. The atmospheric parameters of HD 80057 used in this study are from Firnstein and Przybilla (2012), and that of HD 80404 are derived from spectral energy distribution, ionization equilibria of Cr I/II and Fe I/II, the fits to the wings of Balmer and Paschen lines as Teff = 7700 ± 150 K and log g = 1.60 ± 0.15 (in cgs). The microturbulent velocities of HD 80057 and HD 80404 have been determined as 4.3 ± 0.1 and 2.2 ± 0.0 km s^-1, respectively. The rotational velocities are 15 ± 1 and 7 ± 2 km s^-1 and their macroturbulence velocities are 24 ± 2 and 2 ± 1 km s^1. We have given the abundances of 25 ions of 19 elements for HD 80057 and 36 ions of 25 elements for HD 80404. The abundances are close to solar values, except for some elements (Na, Sc, Ti, V, Ba, and Sr). We have found the metallicities [M/H] for HD 80057 and HD 80404 as -0.16 ± 0.24 and -0.04 ± 0.16 dex, respectively. The evolutionary status of these stars are discussed and their nitrogen-to-carbon (N/C) and nitrogen-to-oxygen (N/O) ratios show that they are in their blue supergiant phase before the red supergiant region.

  6. Measuring Housework Participation: The Gap between "Stylised" Questionnaire Estimates and Diary-Based Estimates

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kan, Man Yee

    2008-01-01

    This article compares stylised (questionnaire-based) estimates and diary-based estimates of housework time collected from the same respondents. Data come from the Home On-line Study (1999-2001), a British national household survey that contains both types of estimates (sample size = 632 men and 666 women). It shows that the gap between the two…

  7. Proposed Method for Estimating Health-Promoting Glucosinolates and Hydrolysis Products in Broccoli (Brassica oleracea var. italica) Using Relative Transcript Abundance.

    PubMed

    Becker, Talon M; Jeffery, Elizabeth H; Juvik, John A

    2017-01-18

    Due to the importance of glucosinolates and their hydrolysis products in human nutrition and plant defense, optimizing the content of these compounds is a frequent breeding objective for Brassica crops. Toward this goal, we investigated the feasibility of using models built from relative transcript abundance data for the prediction of glucosinolate and hydrolysis product concentrations in broccoli. We report that predictive models explaining at least 50% of the variation for a number of glucosinolates and their hydrolysis products can be built for prediction within the same season, but prediction accuracy decreased when using models built from one season's data for prediction of an opposing season. This method of phytochemical profile prediction could potentially allow for lower phytochemical phenotyping costs and larger breeding populations. This, in turn, could improve selection efficiency for phase II induction potential, a type of chemopreventive bioactivity, by allowing for the quick and relatively cheap content estimation of phytochemicals known to influence the trait.

  8. Contour-based object orientation estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alpatov, Boris; Babayan, Pavel

    2016-04-01

    Real-time object orientation estimation is an actual problem of computer vision nowadays. In this paper we propose an approach to estimate an orientation of objects lacking axial symmetry. Proposed algorithm is intended to estimate orientation of a specific known 3D object, so 3D model is required for learning. The proposed orientation estimation algorithm consists of 2 stages: learning and estimation. Learning stage is devoted to the exploring of studied object. Using 3D model we can gather set of training images by capturing 3D model from viewpoints evenly distributed on a sphere. Sphere points distribution is made by the geosphere principle. It minimizes the training image set. Gathered training image set is used for calculating descriptors, which will be used in the estimation stage of the algorithm. The estimation stage is focusing on matching process between an observed image descriptor and the training image descriptors. The experimental research was performed using a set of images of Airbus A380. The proposed orientation estimation algorithm showed good accuracy (mean error value less than 6°) in all case studies. The real-time performance of the algorithm was also demonstrated.

  9. Bovine Host Genetic Variation Influences Rumen Microbial Methane Production with Best Selection Criterion for Low Methane Emitting and Efficiently Feed Converting Hosts Based on Metagenomic Gene Abundance

    PubMed Central

    Roehe, Rainer; Dewhurst, Richard J.; Duthie, Carol-Anne; Rooke, John A.; McKain, Nest; Ross, Dave W.; Hyslop, Jimmy J.; Waterhouse, Anthony; Freeman, Tom C.

    2016-01-01

    Methane produced by methanogenic archaea in ruminants contributes significantly to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The host genetic link controlling microbial methane production is unknown and appropriate genetic selection strategies are not developed. We used sire progeny group differences to estimate the host genetic influence on rumen microbial methane production in a factorial experiment consisting of crossbred breed types and diets. Rumen metagenomic profiling was undertaken to investigate links between microbial genes and methane emissions or feed conversion efficiency. Sire progeny groups differed significantly in their methane emissions measured in respiration chambers. Ranking of the sire progeny groups based on methane emissions or relative archaeal abundance was consistent overall and within diet, suggesting that archaeal abundance in ruminal digesta is under host genetic control and can be used to genetically select animals without measuring methane directly. In the metagenomic analysis of rumen contents, we identified 3970 microbial genes of which 20 and 49 genes were significantly associated with methane emissions and feed conversion efficiency respectively. These explained 81% and 86% of the respective variation and were clustered in distinct functional gene networks. Methanogenesis genes (e.g. mcrA and fmdB) were associated with methane emissions, whilst host-microbiome cross talk genes (e.g. TSTA3 and FucI) were associated with feed conversion efficiency. These results strengthen the idea that the host animal controls its own microbiota to a significant extent and open up the implementation of effective breeding strategies using rumen microbial gene abundance as a predictor for difficult-to-measure traits on a large number of hosts. Generally, the results provide a proof of principle to use the relative abundance of microbial genes in the gastrointestinal tract of different species to predict their influence on traits e.g. human metabolism

  10. Bovine Host Genetic Variation Influences Rumen Microbial Methane Production with Best Selection Criterion for Low Methane Emitting and Efficiently Feed Converting Hosts Based on Metagenomic Gene Abundance.

    PubMed

    Roehe, Rainer; Dewhurst, Richard J; Duthie, Carol-Anne; Rooke, John A; McKain, Nest; Ross, Dave W; Hyslop, Jimmy J; Waterhouse, Anthony; Freeman, Tom C; Watson, Mick; Wallace, R John

    2016-02-01

    Methane produced by methanogenic archaea in ruminants contributes significantly to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The host genetic link controlling microbial methane production is unknown and appropriate genetic selection strategies are not developed. We used sire progeny group differences to estimate the host genetic influence on rumen microbial methane production in a factorial experiment consisting of crossbred breed types and diets. Rumen metagenomic profiling was undertaken to investigate links between microbial genes and methane emissions or feed conversion efficiency. Sire progeny groups differed significantly in their methane emissions measured in respiration chambers. Ranking of the sire progeny groups based on methane emissions or relative archaeal abundance was consistent overall and within diet, suggesting that archaeal abundance in ruminal digesta is under host genetic control and can be used to genetically select animals without measuring methane directly. In the metagenomic analysis of rumen contents, we identified 3970 microbial genes of which 20 and 49 genes were significantly associated with methane emissions and feed conversion efficiency respectively. These explained 81% and 86% of the respective variation and were clustered in distinct functional gene networks. Methanogenesis genes (e.g. mcrA and fmdB) were associated with methane emissions, whilst host-microbiome cross talk genes (e.g. TSTA3 and FucI) were associated with feed conversion efficiency. These results strengthen the idea that the host animal controls its own microbiota to a significant extent and open up the implementation of effective breeding strategies using rumen microbial gene abundance as a predictor for difficult-to-measure traits on a large number of hosts. Generally, the results provide a proof of principle to use the relative abundance of microbial genes in the gastrointestinal tract of different species to predict their influence on traits e.g. human metabolism

  11. Highly efficient luminescent solar concentrators based on earth-abundant indirect-bandgap silicon quantum dots

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meinardi, Francesco; Ehrenberg, Samantha; Dhamo, Lorena; Carulli, Francesco; Mauri, Michele; Bruni, Francesco; Simonutti, Roberto; Kortshagen, Uwe; Brovelli, Sergio

    2017-02-01

    Building-integrated photovoltaics is gaining consensus as a renewable energy technology for producing electricity at the point of use. Luminescent solar concentrators (LSCs) could extend architectural integration to the urban environment by realizing electrode-less photovoltaic windows. Crucial for large-area LSCs is the suppression of reabsorption losses, which requires emitters with negligible overlap between their absorption and emission spectra. Here, we demonstrate the use of indirect-bandgap semiconductor nanostructures such as highly emissive silicon quantum dots. Silicon is non-toxic, low-cost and ultra-earth-abundant, which avoids the limitations to the industrial scaling of quantum dots composed of low-abundance elements. Suppressed reabsorption and scattering losses lead to nearly ideal LSCs with an optical efficiency of η = 2.85%, matching state-of-the-art semi-transparent LSCs. Monte Carlo simulations indicate that optimized silicon quantum dot LSCs have a clear path to η > 5% for 1 m2 devices. We are finally able to realize flexible LSCs with performances comparable to those of flat concentrators, which opens the way to a new design freedom for building-integrated photovoltaics elements.

  12. Combining split-beam and dual-frequency identification sonars to estimate abundance of anadromous fishes in the Roanoke River, North Carolina

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hughes, Jacob B.; Hightower, Joseph E.

    2015-01-01

    Riverine hydroacoustic techniques are an effective method for evaluating abundance of upstream migrating anadromous fishes. To use these methods in the Roanoke River, North Carolina, at a wide site with uneven bottom topography, we used a combination of split-beam sonar and dual-frequency identification sonar (DIDSON) deployments. We aimed a split-beam sonar horizontally to monitor midchannel and near-bottom zones continuously over the 3-month spring monitoring periods in 2010 and 2011. The DIDSON was rotated between seven cross-channel locations (using a vertical aim) and nearshore regions (using horizontal aims). Vertical deployment addressed blind spots in split-beam coverage along the bottom and provided reliable information about the cross-channel and vertical distributions of upstream migrants. Using a Bayesian framework, we modeled sonar counts within four cross-channel strata and apportioned counts by species using species proportions from boat electrofishing and gill netting. Modeled estimates (95% credible intervals [CIs]) of total upstream migrants in 2010 and 2011 were 2.5 million (95% CI, 2.4–2.6 million) and 3.6 million (95% CI, 3.4–3.9 million), respectively. Results indicated that upstream migrants are extremely shore- and bottom-oriented, suggesting nearshore DIDSON monitoring improved the accuracy and precision of our estimates. This monitoring protocol and model may be widely applicable to river systems regardless of their cross-sectional width or profile.

  13. Balancing Score Adjusted Targeted Minimum Loss-based Estimation

    PubMed Central

    Lendle, Samuel David; Fireman, Bruce; van der Laan, Mark J.

    2015-01-01

    Adjusting for a balancing score is sufficient for bias reduction when estimating causal effects including the average treatment effect and effect among the treated. Estimators that adjust for the propensity score in a nonparametric way, such as matching on an estimate of the propensity score, can be consistent when the estimated propensity score is not consistent for the true propensity score but converges to some other balancing score. We call this property the balancing score property, and discuss a class of estimators that have this property. We introduce a targeted minimum loss-based estimator (TMLE) for a treatment-specific mean with the balancing score property that is additionally locally efficient and doubly robust. We investigate the new estimator’s performance relative to other estimators, including another TMLE, a propensity score matching estimator, an inverse probability of treatment weighted estimator, and a regression-based estimator in simulation studies. PMID:26561539

  14. Spectrum-based estimators of the bivariate Hurst exponent

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kristoufek, Ladislav

    2014-12-01

    We discuss two alternate spectrum-based estimators of the bivariate Hurst exponent in the power-law cross-correlations setting, the cross-periodogram and local X -Whittle estimators, as generalizations of their univariate counterparts. As the spectrum-based estimators are dependent on a part of the spectrum taken into consideration during estimation, a simulation study showing performance of the estimators under varying bandwidth parameter as well as correlation between processes and their specification is provided as well. These estimators are less biased than the already existent averaged periodogram estimator, which, however, has slightly lower variance. The spectrum-based estimators can serve as a good complement to the popular time domain estimators.

  15. A review of earth abundant ZnO-based materials for thermoelectric and photovoltaic applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Yang; Zhou, Chuanle; Elquist, Aline M.; Ghods, Amirhossein; Saravade, Vishal G.; Lu, Na; Ferguson, Ian

    2018-02-01

    Zinc oxide (ZnO) is an earth abundant wide bandgap semiconductor of great interest in the recent years. ZnO has many unique properties, such as non-toxic, large direct bandgap, high exciton binding energy, high transparency in visible and infrared spectrum, large Seebeck coefficient, high thermal stability, high electron diffusivity, high electron mobility, and availability of various nanostructures, making it a promising material for many applications. The growth techniques of ZnO is reviewed in this work, including sputtering, PLD, MOCVD and MBE techniques, focusing on the crystalline quality, electrical and optical properties. The problem with p-type doping ZnO is also discussed, and the method to improve p-type doping efficiency is reviewed. This paper also summarizes the current state of art of ZnO in thermoelectric and photovoltaic applications, including the key parameters, different device structures, and future development.

  16. Web-based Interspecies Correlation Estimation

    EPA Science Inventory

    Web-ICE estimates acute toxicity (LC50/LD50) of a chemical to a species, genus, or family from the known toxicity of the chemical to a surrogate species. Web-ICE has modules to predict acute toxicity to aquatic (fish and invertebrates) and wildlife (birds and mammals) taxa for us...

  17. Reexamining Sample Size Requirements for Multivariate, Abundance-Based Community Research: When Resources are Limited, the Research Does Not Have to Be.

    PubMed

    Forcino, Frank L; Leighton, Lindsey R; Twerdy, Pamela; Cahill, James F

    2015-01-01

    Community ecologists commonly perform multivariate techniques (e.g., ordination, cluster analysis) to assess patterns and gradients of taxonomic variation. A critical requirement for a meaningful statistical analysis is accurate information on the taxa found within an ecological sample. However, oversampling (too many individuals counted per sample) also comes at a cost, particularly for ecological systems in which identification and quantification is substantially more resource consuming than the field expedition itself. In such systems, an increasingly larger sample size will eventually result in diminishing returns in improving any pattern or gradient revealed by the data, but will also lead to continually increasing costs. Here, we examine 396 datasets: 44 previously published and 352 created datasets. Using meta-analytic and simulation-based approaches, the research within the present paper seeks (1) to determine minimal sample sizes required to produce robust multivariate statistical results when conducting abundance-based, community ecology research. Furthermore, we seek (2) to determine the dataset parameters (i.e., evenness, number of taxa, number of samples) that require larger sample sizes, regardless of resource availability. We found that in the 44 previously published and the 220 created datasets with randomly chosen abundances, a conservative estimate of a sample size of 58 produced the same multivariate results as all larger sample sizes. However, this minimal number varies as a function of evenness, where increased evenness resulted in increased minimal sample sizes. Sample sizes as small as 58 individuals are sufficient for a broad range of multivariate abundance-based research. In cases when resource availability is the limiting factor for conducting a project (e.g., small university, time to conduct the research project), statistically viable results can still be obtained with less of an investment.

  18. Abundance, biomass, vertical migration and estimated development rate of the copepod Calanus finmarchicus in the southern Gulf of Maine during late spring

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Durbin, Edward G.; Gilman, Sharon L.; Campbell, Robert G.; Durbin, Ann G.

    Abundance, biomass, diel vertical migration and estimated in situ development in the copepod Calanus finmarchicus were investigated during late spring in 1988 and 1989 in the southern Gulf of Maine. This region is an important feeding ground for the planktivorous right whale, Eubalaena glacialis. The 1988 study took place during the declining spring bloom, with phytoplankton biomass variable, but relatively high. The 1989 study occurred after seasonal stratification, and phytoplankton biomass was low. During the 1988 cruise the dominant stage in C. finmarchicus shifted from C1-C2 to C4-C5. Stage durations during 1988 (4.0 days for C3 and 6.6 days for C4), estimated from the temporal change in stage distribution, were similar to maximal values observed in the laboratory. In contrast, during 1989 stages C4 and C5 were dominant throughout the study period and development rate was slow (estimated C4 stage duration about 24 days). Diel vertical migration patterns changed, from an absence of migration at the first two 1988 stations where younger stages predominated (C1-C3), to a very strong diel vertical migration at the later 1988 stations where stages C3-C3 predominated. This was not a simple ontogenetic change in migratory behavior since all copepodite stages at each station showed similar patterns. During 1989 dense aggregations of C. finmarchicus remained in the surface layer both day and night, and no diel vertical migration was observed. A small, nonmigratory population of late-stage C. finmarchicus was found at depth. Individual body size of these copepods was considerably greater than those found at the surface. Differences in development rate between years reflect differences in the food environment, brought about by seasonal hydrographic changes and the development of more intense stratification. Diel vertical migration patterns, however, did not show a simple relation with food availability, and it is suggested that predation may play an important role in

  19. Partial least squares methods for spectrally estimating lunar soil FeO abundance: A stratified approach to revealing nonlinear effect and qualitative interpretation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Lin

    2008-12-01

    Partial least squares (PLS) regressions were applied to lunar highland and mare soil data characterized by the Lunar Soil Characterization Consortium (LSCC) for spectral estimation of the abundance of lunar soil chemical constituents FeO and Al2O3. The LSCC data set was split into a number of subsets including the total highland, Apollo 16, Apollo 14, and total mare soils, and then PLS was applied to each to investigate the effect of nonlinearity on the performance of the PLS method. The weight-loading vectors resulting from PLS were analyzed to identify mineral species responsible for spectral estimation of the soil chemicals. The results from PLS modeling indicate that the PLS performance depends on the correlation of constituents of interest to their major mineral carriers, and the Apollo 16 soils are responsible for the large errors of FeO and Al2O3 estimates when the soils were modeled along with other types of soils. These large errors are primarily attributed to the degraded correlation FeO to pyroxene for the relatively mature Apollo 16 soils as a result of space weathering and secondary to the interference of olivine. PLS consistently yields very accurate fits to the two soil chemicals when applied to mare soils. Although Al2O3 has no spectrally diagnostic characteristics, this chemical can be predicted for all subset data by PLS modeling at high accuracies because of its correlation to FeO. This correlation is reflected in the symmetry of the PLS weight-loading vectors for FeO and Al2O3, which prove to be very useful for qualitative interpretation of the PLS results. However, this qualitative interpretation of PLS modeling cannot be achieved using principal component regression loading vectors.

  20. Raft and floating radio frequency identification (RFID) antenna systems for detecting and estimating abundance of PIT-tagged fish in rivers

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fetherman, Eric R.; Avila, Brian W.; Winkelman, Dana L.

    2016-01-01

    Portable radio frequency identification (RFID) PIT tag antenna systems are increasingly being used in studies examining aquatic animal movement, survival, and habitat use, and their design flexibility permits application in a wide variety of settings. We describe the construction, use, and performance of two portable floating RFID PIT tag antenna systems designed to detect fish that were unavailable for recapture using stationary antennas or electrofishing. A raft antenna system was designed to detect and locate PIT-tagged fish in relatively long (i.e., ≥10 km) river reaches, and consisted of two antennas: (1) a horizontal antenna (4 × 1.2 m) installed on the bottom of the raft and used to detect fish in shallower river reaches (<1 m), and (2) a vertical antenna (2.7 × 1.2 m) for detecting fish in deeper pools (≥1 m). Detection distances of the horizontal antenna were between 0.7 and 1.0 m, and detection probability was 0.32 ± 0.02 (mean ± SE) in a field test using rocks marked with 32-mm PIT tags. Detection probability of PIT-tagged fish in the Cache la Poudre River, Colorado, using the raft antenna system, which covered 21% of the wetted area, was 0.14 ± 0.14. A shore-deployed floating antenna (14.6 × 0.6 m), which covered 100% of the wetted area, was designed for use by two operators for detecting and locating PIT-tagged fish in shorter (i.e., <2 km) river reaches. Detection distances of the shore-deployed floating antenna were between 0.7 and 0.8 m, and detection probabilities during field deployment in the St. Vrain River exceeded 0.52. The shore-deployed floating antenna was also used to estimate abundance of PIT-tagged fish. Results suggest that the shore-deployed floating antenna could be used as an alternative to estimating abundance using traditional sampling methods such as electrofishing.

  1. Uncertainty relation based on unbiased parameter estimations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sun, Liang-Liang; Song, Yong-Shun; Qiao, Cong-Feng; Yu, Sixia; Chen, Zeng-Bing

    2017-02-01

    Heisenberg's uncertainty relation has been extensively studied in spirit of its well-known original form, in which the inaccuracy measures used exhibit some controversial properties and don't conform with quantum metrology, where the measurement precision is well defined in terms of estimation theory. In this paper, we treat the joint measurement of incompatible observables as a parameter estimation problem, i.e., estimating the parameters characterizing the statistics of the incompatible observables. Our crucial observation is that, in a sequential measurement scenario, the bias induced by the first unbiased measurement in the subsequent measurement can be eradicated by the information acquired, allowing one to extract unbiased information of the second measurement of an incompatible observable. In terms of Fisher information we propose a kind of information comparison measure and explore various types of trade-offs between the information gains and measurement precisions, which interpret the uncertainty relation as surplus variance trade-off over individual perfect measurements instead of a constraint on extracting complete information of incompatible observables.

  2. Measuring NH3 and other molecular abundance profiles from 5 microns ground-based spectroscopy in support of JUNO investigations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blain, Doriann; Fouchet, Thierry; Greathouse, Thomas K.; Bézard, Bruno; Encrenaz, Therese; Lacy, John H.; Drossart, Pierre

    2017-10-01

    We report on results of an observational campaign to support the Juno mission. At the beginning of 2016, using TEXES (Texas Echelon cross-dispersed Echelle Spectrograph), mounted on the NASA Infrared Telescope Facility (IRTF), we obtained data cubes of Jupiter in the 1930--1943 cm-1 and 2135--2153 cm-1 spectral ranges (around 5 μm), which probe the atmosphere in the 1--4 bar region, with a spectral resolution of ≈0.3 cm-1 (R≈7000) and an angular resolution of ≈1.5''.This dataset is analyzed by a code that combines a line-by-line radiative transfer model with a non-linear optimal estimation inversion method. The inversion retrieves the abundance profiles of NH3 and PH3, which are the main conbtributors at these wavelengths, as well as the cloud transmittance. This retrieval is performed over more than one thousand pixels of our data cubes, producing effective maps of the disk, where all the major belts are visible (NEB, SEB, NTB, STB, NNTB and SSTB).We will present notably our retrieved NH3 abundance maps which can be compared with the unexpected latitudinal distribution observed by Juno's MWR (Bolton et al., 2017 and Li et al. 2017), as well as our other species retrieved abundance maps and discuss on their significance for the understanding of Jupiter's atmospheric dynamics.References:Bolton, S., et al. (2017), Jupiter’s interior and deep atmosphere: The first close polar pass with the Juno spacecraft, Science, doi:10.1126/science.aal2108, in press.Li, C., A. P. Ingersoll, S. Ewald, F. Oyafuso, and M. Janssen (2017), Jupiter’s global ammonia distribution from inversion of Juno Microwave Radiometer observations, Geophys. Res. Lett., doi:10.1002/2017GL073159, in press.

  3. Influence of observers and stream flow on northern two-lined salamander (Eurycea bislineata bislineata) relative abundance estimates in Acadia and Shenandoah National Parks, USA

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Crocker, J.B.; Bank, M.S.; Loftin, C.S.; Jung Brown, R.E.

    2007-01-01

    We investigated effects of observers and stream flow on Northern Two-Lined Salamander (Eurycea bislineata bislineata) counts in streams in Acadia (ANP) and Shenandoah National Parks (SNP). We counted salamanders in 22 ANP streams during high flow (May to June 2002) and during low flow (July 2002). We also counted salamanders in SNP in nine streams during high flow (summer 2003) and 11 streams during low flow (summers 2001?02, 2004). In 2002, we used a modified cover-controlled active search method with a first and second observer. In succession, observers turned over 100 rocks along five 1-m belt transects across the streambed. The difference between observers in total salamander counts was not significant. We counted fewer E. b. bislineata during high flow conditions, confirming that detection of this species is reduced during high flow periods and that assessment of stream salamander relative abundance is likely more reliable during low or base flow conditions.

  4. Distributed Damage Estimation for Prognostics based on Structural Model Decomposition

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Daigle, Matthew; Bregon, Anibal; Roychoudhury, Indranil

    2011-01-01

    Model-based prognostics approaches capture system knowledge in the form of physics-based models of components, and how they fail. These methods consist of a damage estimation phase, in which the health state of a component is estimated, and a prediction phase, in which the health state is projected forward in time to determine end of life. However, the damage estimation problem is often multi-dimensional and computationally intensive. We propose a model decomposition approach adapted from the diagnosis community, called possible conflicts, in order to both improve the computational efficiency of damage estimation, and formulate a damage estimation approach that is inherently distributed. Local state estimates are combined into a global state estimate from which prediction is performed. Using a centrifugal pump as a case study, we perform a number of simulation-based experiments to demonstrate the approach.

  5. The combination of abundance and infection rates of Culicoides sonorensis estimates risk of subsequent bluetongue virus infection of sentinel cattle on California dairy farms.

    PubMed

    Mayo, Christie E; Mullens, Bradley A; Gerry, Alec C; Barker, Christopher M; Mertens, Peter P C; Maan, Sushila; Maan, Narender; Gardner, Ian A; Guthrie, Alan J; MacLachlan, N James

    2012-06-08

    Bluetongue (BT) is an important viral disease of ruminants that is transmitted by hematophagous Culicoides midges. We examined the seasonal patterns of abundance and infection of Culicoides sonorensis at four dairy farms in the northern Central Valley of California to develop estimates of risk for bluetongue virus (BTV) transmission to cattle at each farm. These four farms were selected because of their similar meteorological conditions but varying levels of vector abundance and BTV infection of cattle. C. sonorensis midges were collected weekly at each farm during the seasonal transmission period, using three different trapping methods: traps baited with either carbon dioxide (CO(2)) alone or traps with CO(2) and UV light, and by direct aspiration of midges from sentinel cattle. Analysis of BTV-infected midges using group and serotype-specific quantitative reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) assays confirmed that BTV serotypes 10, 11, 13 and 17 are all present in the region, but that midge infection rates and the number of BTV serotypes circulating differed markedly among the individual farms. Furthermore, more serotypes of BTV were present in midges than in sentinel cattle at individual farms where BTV circulated, and the virus was detected at each farm in midges prior to detection in cattle. BTV infection rates were remarkably lower among female C. sonorensis midges collected by CO(2) traps with UV light than among midges collected by either animal-baited aspirations or in CO(2) traps without light. A subsample of female midges examined from each collection method showed no overall differences in the proportion of female midges that had previously fed on a host. Findings from this study confirm the importance of using sensitive surveillance methods for both midge collection and virus detection in epidemiological studies of BTV infection, which is especially critical if the data are to be used for development of mathematical models to

  6. Modeling abundance effects in distance sampling

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Royle, J. Andrew; Dawson, D.K.; Bates, S.

    2004-01-01

    Distance-sampling methods are commonly used in studies of animal populations to estimate population density. A common objective of such studies is to evaluate the relationship between abundance or density and covariates that describe animal habitat or other environmental influences. However, little attention has been focused on methods of modeling abundance covariate effects in conventional distance-sampling models. In this paper we propose a distance-sampling model that accommodates covariate effects on abundance. The model is based on specification of the distance-sampling likelihood at the level of the sample unit in terms of local abundance (for each sampling unit). This model is augmented with a Poisson regression model for local abundance that is parameterized in terms of available covariates. Maximum-likelihood estimation of detection and density parameters is based on the integrated likelihood, wherein local abundance is removed from the likelihood by integration. We provide an example using avian point-transect data of Ovenbirds (Seiurus aurocapillus) collected using a distance-sampling protocol and two measures of habitat structure (understory cover and basal area of overstory trees). The model yields a sensible description (positive effect of understory cover, negative effect on basal area) of the relationship between habitat and Ovenbird density that can be used to evaluate the effects of habitat management on Ovenbird populations.

  7. Hierarchical models of animal abundance and occurrence

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Royle, J. Andrew; Dorazio, R.M.

    2006-01-01

    Much of animal ecology is devoted to studies of abundance and occurrence of species, based on surveys of spatially referenced sample units. These surveys frequently yield sparse counts that are contaminated by imperfect detection, making direct inference about abundance or occurrence based on observational data infeasible. This article describes a flexible hierarchical modeling framework for estimation and inference about animal abundance and occurrence from survey data that are subject to imperfect detection. Within this framework, we specify models of abundance and detectability of animals at the level of the local populations defined by the sample units. Information at the level of the local population is aggregated by specifying models that describe variation in abundance and detection among sites. We describe likelihood-based and Bayesian methods for estimation and inference under the resulting hierarchical model. We provide two examples of the application of hierarchical models to animal survey data, the first based on removal counts of stream fish and the second based on avian quadrat counts. For both examples, we provide a Bayesian analysis of the models using the software WinBUGS.

  8. Monitoring Butterfly Abundance: Beyond Pollard Walks

    PubMed Central

    Pellet, Jérôme; Bried, Jason T.; Parietti, David; Gander, Antoine; Heer, Patrick O.; Cherix, Daniel; Arlettaz, Raphaël

    2012-01-01

    Most butterfly monitoring protocols rely on counts along transects (Pollard walks) to generate species abundance indices and track population trends. It is still too often ignored that a population count results from two processes: the biological process (true abundance) and the statistical process (our ability to properly quantify abundance). Because individual detectability tends to vary in space (e.g., among sites) and time (e.g., among years), it remains unclear whether index counts truly reflect population sizes and trends. This study compares capture-mark-recapture (absolute abundance) and count-index (relative abundance) monitoring methods in three species (Maculinea nausithous and Iolana iolas: Lycaenidae; Minois dryas: Satyridae) in contrasted habitat types. We demonstrate that intraspecific variability in individual detectability under standard monitoring conditions is probably the rule rather than the exception, which questions the reliability of count-based indices to estimate and compare specific population abundance. Our results suggest that the accuracy of count-based methods depends heavily on the ecology and behavior of the target species, as well as on the type of habitat in which surveys take place. Monitoring programs designed to assess the abundance and trends in butterfly populations should incorporate a measure of detectability. We discuss the relative advantages and inconveniences of current monitoring methods and analytical approaches with respect to the characteristics of the species under scrutiny and resources availability. PMID:22859980

  9. Nucleon interaction data bases for background estimates

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, John W.; Townsend, Lawrence W.

    1989-01-01

    Nucleon interaction data bases available in the open literature are examined for potential use in a recently developed nucleon transport code. Particular attention is given to secondary particle penetration and the multiple charged ion products. A brief description of the transport algorithm is given.

  10. A Coalescent-Based Estimator of Admixture From DNA Sequences

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Jinliang

    2006-01-01

    A variety of estimators have been developed to use genetic marker information in inferring the admixture proportions (parental contributions) of a hybrid population. The majority of these estimators used allele frequency data, ignored molecular information that is available in markers such as microsatellites and DNA sequences, and assumed that mutations are absent since the admixture event. As a result, these estimators may fail to deliver an estimate or give rather poor estimates when admixture is ancient and thus mutations are not negligible. A previous molecular estimator based its inference of admixture proportions on the average coalescent times between pairs of genes taken from within and between populations. In this article I propose an estimator that considers the entire genealogy of all of the sampled genes and infers admixture proportions from the numbers of segregating sites in DNA sequence samples. By considering the genealogy of all sequences rather than pairs of sequences, this new estimator also allows the joint estimation of other interesting parameters in the admixture model, such as admixture time, divergence time, population size, and mutation rate. Comparative analyses of simulated data indicate that the new coalescent estimator generally yields better estimates of admixture proportions than the previous molecular estimator, especially when the parental populations are not highly differentiated. It also gives reasonably accurate estimates of other admixture parameters. A human mtDNA sequence data set was analyzed to demonstrate the method, and the analysis results are discussed and compared with those from previous studies. PMID:16624918

  11. Sample Based Unit Liter Dose Estimates

    SciTech Connect

    JENSEN, L.

    The Tank Waste Characterization Program has taken many core samples, grab samples, and auger samples from the single-shell and double-shell tanks during the past 10 years. Consequently, the amount of sample data available has increased, both in terms of quantity of sample results and the number of tanks characterized. More and better data is available than when the current radiological and toxicological source terms used in the Basis for Interim Operation (BIO) (FDH 1999a) and the Final Safety Analysis Report (FSAR) (FDH 1999b) were developed. The Nuclear Safety and Licensing (NS and L) organization wants to use the new datamore » to upgrade the radiological and toxicological source terms used in the BIO and FSAR. The NS and L organization requested assistance in producing a statistically based process for developing the source terms. This report describes the statistical techniques used and the assumptions made to support the development of a new radiological source term for liquid and solid wastes stored in single-shell and double-shell tanks. The results given in this report are a revision to similar results given in an earlier version of the document (Jensen and Wilmarth 1999). The main difference between the results in this document and the earlier version is that the dose conversion factors (DCF) for converting {mu}Ci/g or {mu}Ci/L to Sv/L (sieverts per liter) have changed. There are now two DCFs, one based on ICRP-68 and one based on ICW-71 (Brevick 2000).« less

  12. Model-based Small Area Estimates of Cancer Risk Factors and Screening Behaviors - Small Area Estimates

    Cancer.gov

    These model-based estimates use two surveys, the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) and the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS). The two surveys are combined using novel statistical methodology.

  13. Detection of an abundant plant-based small RNA in consumers

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Mechanisms of delivery of plant small RNAs to consumers must be addressed in order to harness this technology to positively impact agbiotechnology. Two groups have used honeysuckle (Lonicera japonica) feeding regimes to detect a plant-based small RNA, termed MIR2911, in sera. Meanwhile, numerous gro...

  14. The Giant Branch of omega Centauri. IV. Abundance Patterns Based on Echelle Spectra of 40 Red Giants

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Norris, John E.; Da Costa, G. S.

    1995-07-01

    Abundances of some 20 elements have been determined for a (biased) sample of 40 red giants having Mv < -1.5 in the chemically inhomogeneous globular cluster ω Centauri. The results are based on high-resolution, high signal-to-noise echelle spectra and permit one to examine the roles of primordial enrichment and stellar evolutionary mixing effects in the cluster. Our basic conclusions are as follows (1) There is an abundance range -1.8 < [Fe/H] < -0.8, and even more metal rich stars may exist in the cluster. (2) For the α (Mg, Si, Ca, Ti) and iron peak (Cr, Ni) elements and Sc and V, [metal/Fe] is flat as a function of [Fe/H] and is consistent with primordial enrichment from stars having mass greater than 10 Msun, as has been found for field halo stars. (3) There is a large scatter in the abundances of C, N, and 0. The bulk of the stars have -0.9 < [C/Fe] < -0.3 and [O/Fe] ˜ 0.3, as is found at the red giant branch tip in other "normal" (showing no spread in [Fe/H]) clusters of similar abundance, while there also exists a group of CN-strong stars having [C/Fe] ˜ -0.7 and [O/Fe] ˜ -0.5. Nitrogen appears to be enhanced in all of these carbon-depleted stars. These results are most readily explained in terms of evolutionary mixing effects not predicted by standard stellar evolution calculations and are consistent with the earlier suggestions of Cohen & Bell (1986) and Paltoglou & Norris (1989) concerning processing in both the CN and ON cycles in the stars being observed. In contrast, the group of CO-strong stars first identified by Persson et al. (1980) has [C/Fe] ˜ 0.0, [O/Fe] ˜ 0.4, and [N/Fe] ˜ 0.4 (or 0.9 if the nitrogen scale of Brown and Wallerstein is correct) and is suggestive of primordial enrichment of carbon and/or nitrogen from intermediate- and possibly low-mass stars, tempered by later stellar evolutionary effects. (4) [Na/Fe] and [Al/Fe] are anticorrelated with [O/Fe], and there is a positive correlation between [Na/Fe] and [Al/Fe], all of which

  15. Localized Dictionaries Based Orientation Field Estimation for Latent Fingerprints.

    PubMed

    Xiao Yang; Jianjiang Feng; Jie Zhou

    2014-05-01

    Dictionary based orientation field estimation approach has shown promising performance for latent fingerprints. In this paper, we seek to exploit stronger prior knowledge of fingerprints in order to further improve the performance. Realizing that ridge orientations at different locations of fingerprints have different characteristics, we propose a localized dictionaries-based orientation field estimation algorithm, in which noisy orientation patch at a location output by a local estimation approach is replaced by real orientation patch in the local dictionary at the same location. The precondition of applying localized dictionaries is that the pose of the latent fingerprint needs to be estimated. We propose a Hough transform-based fingerprint pose estimation algorithm, in which the predictions about fingerprint pose made by all orientation patches in the latent fingerprint are accumulated. Experimental results on challenging latent fingerprint datasets show the proposed method outperforms previous ones markedly.

  16. Vision-Based Position Estimation Utilizing an Extended Kalman Filter

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2016-12-01

    POSITION ESTIMATION UTILIZING AN EXTENDED KALMAN FILTER by Joseph B. Testa III December 2016 Thesis Advisor: Vladimir Dobrokhodov Co...TYPE AND DATES COVERED Master’s thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE VISION-BASED POSITION ESTIMATION UTILIZING AN EXTENDED KALMAN FILTER 5. FUNDING...spots” and network relay between the boarding team and ship. 14. SUBJECT TERMS UAV, ROS, extended Kalman filter , Matlab

  17. Frequency Estimator Performance for a Software-Based Beacon Receiver

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zemba, Michael J.; Morse, Jacquelynne Rose; Nessel, James A.; Miranda, Felix

    2014-01-01

    As propagation terminals have evolved, their design has trended more toward a software-based approach that facilitates convenient adjustment and customization of the receiver algorithms. One potential improvement is the implementation of a frequency estimation algorithm, through which the primary frequency component of the received signal can be estimated with a much greater resolution than with a simple peak search of the FFT spectrum. To select an estimator for usage in a QV-band beacon receiver, analysis of six frequency estimators was conducted to characterize their effectiveness as they relate to beacon receiver design.

  18. Frequency Estimator Performance for a Software-Based Beacon Receiver

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zemba, Michael J.; Morse, Jacquelynne R.; Nessel, James A.

    2014-01-01

    As propagation terminals have evolved, their design has trended more toward a software-based approach that facilitates convenient adjustment and customization of the receiver algorithms. One potential improvement is the implementation of a frequency estimation algorithm, through which the primary frequency component of the received signal can be estimated with a much greater resolution than with a simple peak search of the FFT spectrum. To select an estimator for usage in a Q/V-band beacon receiver, analysis of six frequency estimators was conducted to characterize their effectiveness as they relate to beacon receiver design.

  19. Estimation of rail wear limits based on rail strength investigations

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1998-12-01

    This report describes analyses performed to estimate limits on rail wear based on strength investigations. Two different failure modes are considered in this report: (1) permanent plastic bending, and (2) rail fracture. Rail bending stresses are calc...

  20. Partitioning nitrogen losses by natural abundance nitrogen isotope composition in a process-based statistical modelling framework

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dong, Ning; Wright, Ian; Prentice, Iain Colin

    2017-04-01

    Natural abundance of the stable isotope 15N is an under-utilized resource for research on the global terrestrial nitrogen cycle. Mass balance considerations suggest that if reactive N inputs have a roughly constant isotopic signature, soil δ15N should be mainly determined by the fraction of N losses by leaching - which barely discriminates against 15N - versus gaseous N losses, which discriminate strongly against 15N. We defined simple process-oriented functions of runoff (frunoff) and soil temperature (ftemp) and investigated the dependencies of soil and foliage δ15N (from global compilations of both types of measurement) on their ratio. Both plant and soil δ15N were found to systematically increase with ftemp/frunoff. Consistent with previous analyses, foliage δ15N was offset (more negative) with respect to soil δ15N, with significant differences in this offset between (from largest to smallest offset) ericoid, ectomycorrhizal, arbuscular mycorrhizal and non-mycorrhizal associated plants. δ15N values tend to be large and positive in the driest environments and to decline as frunoff increases, while also being lower in cold environments and increasing as ftemp increases. The fitted statistical model was used to estimate the gaseous fraction of total N losses from ecosystems (fgas) on a global grid basis. In common with earlier results, the largest values of fgas are predicted in the tropics and semi-arid subtropics. This analysis provides an indirectly estimated global mapping of fgas, which could be used as an improved benchmark for terrestrial nitrogen cycle models.

  1. Model-based estimation for dynamic cardiac studies using ECT.

    PubMed

    Chiao, P C; Rogers, W L; Clinthorne, N H; Fessler, J A; Hero, A O

    1994-01-01

    The authors develop a strategy for joint estimation of physiological parameters and myocardial boundaries using ECT (emission computed tomography). They construct an observation model to relate parameters of interest to the projection data and to account for limited ECT system resolution and measurement noise. The authors then use a maximum likelihood (ML) estimator to jointly estimate all the parameters directly from the projection data without reconstruction of intermediate images. They also simulate myocardial perfusion studies based on a simplified heart model to evaluate the performance of the model-based joint ML estimator and compare this performance to the Cramer-Rao lower bound. Finally, the authors discuss model assumptions and potential uses of the joint estimation strategy.

  2. Model-based estimation for dynamic cardiac studies using ECT

    SciTech Connect

    Chiao, P.C.; Rogers, W.L.; Clinthorne, N.H.

    1994-06-01

    In this paper, the authors develop a strategy for joint estimation of physiological parameters and myocardial boundaries using ECT (Emission Computed Tomography). The authors construct an observation model to relate parameters of interest to the projection data and to account for limited ECT system resolution and measurement noise. The authors then use a maximum likelihood (ML) estimator to jointly estimate all the parameters directly from the projection data without reconstruction of intermediate images. The authors also simulate myocardial perfusion studies based on a simplified heart model to evaluate the performance of the model-based joint ML estimator and compare this performancemore » to the Cramer-Rao lower bound. Finally, model assumptions and potential uses of the joint estimation strategy are discussed.« less

  3. Estimating monthly temperature using point based interpolation techniques

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saaban, Azizan; Mah Hashim, Noridayu; Murat, Rusdi Indra Zuhdi

    2013-04-01

    This paper discusses the use of point based interpolation to estimate the value of temperature at an unallocated meteorology stations in Peninsular Malaysia using data of year 2010 collected from the Malaysian Meteorology Department. Two point based interpolation methods which are Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW) and Radial Basis Function (RBF) are considered. The accuracy of the methods is evaluated using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). The results show that RBF with thin plate spline model is suitable to be used as temperature estimator for the months of January and December, while RBF with multiquadric model is suitable to estimate the temperature for the rest of the months.

  4. Process-based Cost Estimation for Ramjet/Scramjet Engines

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Singh, Brijendra; Torres, Felix; Nesman, Miles; Reynolds, John

    2003-01-01

    Process-based cost estimation plays a key role in effecting cultural change that integrates distributed science, technology and engineering teams to rapidly create innovative and affordable products. Working together, NASA Glenn Research Center and Boeing Canoga Park have developed a methodology of process-based cost estimation bridging the methodologies of high-level parametric models and detailed bottoms-up estimation. The NASA GRC/Boeing CP process-based cost model provides a probabilistic structure of layered cost drivers. High-level inputs characterize mission requirements, system performance, and relevant economic factors. Design alternatives are extracted from a standard, product-specific work breakdown structure to pre-load lower-level cost driver inputs and generate the cost-risk analysis. As product design progresses and matures the lower level more detailed cost drivers can be re-accessed and the projected variation of input values narrowed, thereby generating a progressively more accurate estimate of cost-risk. Incorporated into the process-based cost model are techniques for decision analysis, specifically, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and functional utility analysis. Design alternatives may then be evaluated not just on cost-risk, but also user defined performance and schedule criteria. This implementation of full-trade study support contributes significantly to the realization of the integrated development environment. The process-based cost estimation model generates development and manufacturing cost estimates. The development team plans to expand the manufacturing process base from approximately 80 manufacturing processes to over 250 processes. Operation and support cost modeling is also envisioned. Process-based estimation considers the materials, resources, and processes in establishing cost-risk and rather depending on weight as an input, actually estimates weight along with cost and schedule.

  5. Effects of initial moisture content of Korean traditional wheat-based fermentation starter nuruk on microbial abundance and diversity.

    PubMed

    Bal, Jyotiranjan; Yun, Suk-Hyun; Yeo, Soo-Hwan; Kim, Jung-Mi; Kim, Beom-Tae; Kim, Dae-Hyuk

    2017-03-01

    The brewing of makgeolli, one of Korea's most popular alcoholic beverages that is gaining popularity globally, is facilitated by nuruk, a traditional Korean cereal starter. The nuruk microbiome greatly influences the fermentation process as well as the nutritional, hygienic, and aromatic qualities of the product. This study is a continuation of our efforts to examine nuruk biodiversity at a depth previously unattainable. In this study, microfloral dynamics in wheat-based nuruk C, composed of traditional ingredients such as barley, green gram, and wheat and fermented under various internal moisture contents of 20% (C20), 26% (C26), and 30% (C30), was evaluated using 454 pyrosequencing during the 30-day fermentation process. Rarefaction analysis and alpha diversity parameters indicated adequate sampling. C20 showed the greatest fungal richness and diversity, C20 and C26 exhibited similar bacterial richness and diversity, while C30 had low fungal and bacterial richness. Fungal taxonomic assignments revealed that the initial moisture content caused selective enrichment of Aspergillus candidus with a decreasing trend during fermentation, whereas Saccharomycetales sp. exhibited increasing relative abundance with increasing moisture content from day 6 of the fermentation process. Depending on initial moisture level, changes in bacterial communities were also observed in the genera Streptomyces, Bacillus, and Staphylococcus, with decreasing trends whereas Saccharopolyspora exhibited a sigmoidal trend with the highest abundance in C26. These findings demonstrate the possible impact of initial moisture content of nuruk on microfloral richness, diversity, and dynamics; this study is thus a step toward our ultimate goal of enhancing the quality of nuruk.

  6. Can Nonexperimental Estimates Replicate Estimates Based on Random Assignment in Evaluations of School Choice? A Within-Study Comparison

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bifulco, Robert

    2012-01-01

    The ability of nonexperimental estimators to match impact estimates derived from random assignment is examined using data from the evaluation of two interdistrict magnet schools. As in previous within-study comparisons, nonexperimental estimates differ from estimates based on random assignment when nonexperimental estimators are implemented…

  7. Accurate position estimation methods based on electrical impedance tomography measurements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vergara, Samuel; Sbarbaro, Daniel; Johansen, T. A.

    2017-08-01

    Electrical impedance tomography (EIT) is a technology that estimates the electrical properties of a body or a cross section. Its main advantages are its non-invasiveness, low cost and operation free of radiation. The estimation of the conductivity field leads to low resolution images compared with other technologies, and high computational cost. However, in many applications the target information lies in a low intrinsic dimensionality of the conductivity field. The estimation of this low-dimensional information is addressed in this work. It proposes optimization-based and data-driven approaches for estimating this low-dimensional information. The accuracy of the results obtained with these approaches depends on modelling and experimental conditions. Optimization approaches are sensitive to model discretization, type of cost function and searching algorithms. Data-driven methods are sensitive to the assumed model structure and the data set used for parameter estimation. The system configuration and experimental conditions, such as number of electrodes and signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), also have an impact on the results. In order to illustrate the effects of all these factors, the position estimation of a circular anomaly is addressed. Optimization methods based on weighted error cost functions and derivate-free optimization algorithms provided the best results. Data-driven approaches based on linear models provided, in this case, good estimates, but the use of nonlinear models enhanced the estimation accuracy. The results obtained by optimization-based algorithms were less sensitive to experimental conditions, such as number of electrodes and SNR, than data-driven approaches. Position estimation mean squared errors for simulation and experimental conditions were more than twice for the optimization-based approaches compared with the data-driven ones. The experimental position estimation mean squared error of the data-driven models using a 16-electrode setup was less

  8. Probability based models for estimation of wildfire risk

    Treesearch

    Haiganoush Preisler; D. R. Brillinger; R. E. Burgan; John Benoit

    2004-01-01

    We present a probability-based model for estimating fire risk. Risk is defined using three probabilities: the probability of fire occurrence; the conditional probability of a large fire given ignition; and the unconditional probability of a large fire. The model is based on grouped data at the 1 km²-day cell level. We fit a spatially and temporally explicit non-...

  9. Temporal validation for landsat-based volume estimation model

    Treesearch

    Renaldo J. Arroyo; Emily B. Schultz; Thomas G. Matney; David L. Evans; Zhaofei Fan

    2015-01-01

    Satellite imagery can potentially reduce the costs and time associated with ground-based forest inventories; however, for satellite imagery to provide reliable forest inventory data, it must produce consistent results from one time period to the next. The objective of this study was to temporally validate a Landsat-based volume estimation model in a four county study...

  10. Vehicle Lateral State Estimation Based on Measured Tyre Forces

    PubMed Central

    Tuononen, Ari J.

    2009-01-01

    Future active safety systems need more accurate information about the state of vehicles. This article proposes a method to evaluate the lateral state of a vehicle based on measured tyre forces. The tyre forces of two tyres are estimated from optically measured tyre carcass deflections and transmitted wirelessly to the vehicle body. The two remaining tyres are so-called virtual tyre sensors, the forces of which are calculated from the real tyre sensor estimates. The Kalman filter estimator for lateral vehicle state based on measured tyre forces is presented, together with a simple method to define adaptive measurement error covariance depending on the driving condition of the vehicle. The estimated yaw rate and lateral velocity are compared with the validation sensor measurements. PMID:22291535

  11. Estimating Driving Performance Based on EEG Spectrum Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lin, Chin-Teng; Wu, Ruei-Cheng; Jung, Tzyy-Ping; Liang, Sheng-Fu; Huang, Teng-Yi

    2005-12-01

    The growing number of traffic accidents in recent years has become a serious concern to society. Accidents caused by driver's drowsiness behind the steering wheel have a high fatality rate because of the marked decline in the driver's abilities of perception, recognition, and vehicle control abilities while sleepy. Preventing such accidents caused by drowsiness is highly desirable but requires techniques for continuously detecting, estimating, and predicting the level of alertness of drivers and delivering effective feedbacks to maintain their maximum performance. This paper proposes an EEG-based drowsiness estimation system that combines electroencephalogram (EEG) log subband power spectrum, correlation analysis, principal component analysis, and linear regression models to indirectly estimate driver's drowsiness level in a virtual-reality-based driving simulator. Our results demonstrated that it is feasible to accurately estimate quantitatively driving performance, expressed as deviation between the center of the vehicle and the center of the cruising lane, in a realistic driving simulator.

  12. Abundance and composition of indigenous bacterial communities in a multi-step biofiltration-based drinking water treatment plant.

    PubMed

    Lautenschlager, Karin; Hwang, Chiachi; Ling, Fangqiong; Liu, Wen-Tso; Boon, Nico; Köster, Oliver; Egli, Thomas; Hammes, Frederik

    2014-10-01

    Indigenous bacterial communities are essential for biofiltration processes in drinking water treatment systems. In this study, we examined the microbial community composition and abundance of three different biofilter types (rapid sand, granular activated carbon, and slow sand filters) and their respective effluents in a full-scale, multi-step treatment plant (Zürich, CH). Detailed analysis of organic carbon degradation underpinned biodegradation as the primary function of the biofilter biomass. The biomass was present in concentrations ranging between 2-5 × 10(15) cells/m(3) in all filters but was phylogenetically, enzymatically and metabolically diverse. Based on 16S rRNA gene-based 454 pyrosequencing analysis for microbial community composition, similar microbial taxa (predominantly Proteobacteria, Planctomycetes, Acidobacteria, Bacteriodetes, Nitrospira and Chloroflexi) were present in all biofilters and in their respective effluents, but the ratio of microbial taxa was different in each filter type. This change was also reflected in the cluster analysis, which revealed a change of 50-60% in microbial community composition between the different filter types. This study documents the direct influence of the filter biomass on the microbial community composition of the final drinking water, particularly when the water is distributed without post-disinfection. The results provide new insights on the complexity of indigenous bacteria colonizing drinking water systems, especially in different biofilters of a multi-step treatment plant. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Estimation of Compaction Parameters Based on Soil Classification

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lubis, A. S.; Muis, Z. A.; Hastuty, I. P.; Siregar, I. M.

    2018-02-01

    Factors that must be considered in compaction of the soil works were the type of soil material, field control, maintenance and availability of funds. Those problems then raised the idea of how to estimate the density of the soil with a proper implementation system, fast, and economical. This study aims to estimate the compaction parameter i.e. the maximum dry unit weight (γ dmax) and optimum water content (Wopt) based on soil classification. Each of 30 samples were being tested for its properties index and compaction test. All of the data’s from the laboratory test results, were used to estimate the compaction parameter values by using linear regression and Goswami Model. From the research result, the soil types were A4, A-6, and A-7 according to AASHTO and SC, SC-SM, and CL based on USCS. By linear regression, the equation for estimation of the maximum dry unit weight (γdmax *)=1,862-0,005*FINES- 0,003*LL and estimation of the optimum water content (wopt *)=- 0,607+0,362*FINES+0,161*LL. By Goswami Model (with equation Y=mLogG+k), for estimation of the maximum dry unit weight (γdmax *) with m=-0,376 and k=2,482, for estimation of the optimum water content (wopt *) with m=21,265 and k=-32,421. For both of these equations a 95% confidence interval was obtained.

  14. Virtual Estimator for Piecewise Linear Systems Based on Observability Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Morales-Morales, Cornelio; Adam-Medina, Manuel; Cervantes, Ilse; Vela-Valdés and, Luis G.; García Beltrán, Carlos Daniel

    2013-01-01

    This article proposes a virtual sensor for piecewise linear systems based on observability analysis that is in function of a commutation law related with the system's outpu. This virtual sensor is also known as a state estimator. Besides, it presents a detector of active mode when the commutation sequences of each linear subsystem are arbitrary and unknown. For the previous, this article proposes a set of virtual estimators that discern the commutation paths of the system and allow estimating their output. In this work a methodology in order to test the observability for piecewise linear systems with discrete time is proposed. An academic example is presented to show the obtained results. PMID:23447007

  15. Optical Enhancement of Exoskeleton-Based Estimation of Glenohumeral Angles

    PubMed Central

    Cortés, Camilo; Unzueta, Luis; de los Reyes-Guzmán, Ana; Ruiz, Oscar E.; Flórez, Julián

    2016-01-01

    In Robot-Assisted Rehabilitation (RAR) the accurate estimation of the patient limb joint angles is critical for assessing therapy efficacy. In RAR, the use of classic motion capture systems (MOCAPs) (e.g., optical and electromagnetic) to estimate the Glenohumeral (GH) joint angles is hindered by the exoskeleton body, which causes occlusions and magnetic disturbances. Moreover, the exoskeleton posture does not accurately reflect limb posture, as their kinematic models differ. To address the said limitations in posture estimation, we propose installing the cameras of an optical marker-based MOCAP in the rehabilitation exoskeleton. Then, the GH joint angles are estimated by combining the estimated marker poses and exoskeleton Forward Kinematics. Such hybrid system prevents problems related to marker occlusions, reduced camera detection volume, and imprecise joint angle estimation due to the kinematic mismatch of the patient and exoskeleton models. This paper presents the formulation, simulation, and accuracy quantification of the proposed method with simulated human movements. In addition, a sensitivity analysis of the method accuracy to marker position estimation errors, due to system calibration errors and marker drifts, has been carried out. The results show that, even with significant errors in the marker position estimation, method accuracy is adequate for RAR. PMID:27403044

  16. Estimating psychiatric manpower requirements based on patients' needs.

    PubMed

    Faulkner, L R; Goldman, C R

    1997-05-01

    To provide a better understanding of the complexities of estimating psychiatric manpower requirements, the authors describe several approaches to estimation and present a method based on patients' needs. A five-step method for psychiatric manpower estimation is used, with estimates of data pertinent to each step, to calculate the total psychiatric manpower requirements for the United States. The method is also used to estimate the hours of psychiatric service per patient per year that might be available under current psychiatric practice and under a managed care scenario. Depending on assumptions about data at each step in the method, the total psychiatric manpower requirements for the U.S. population range from 2,989 to 358,696 full-time-equivalent psychiatrists. The number of available hours of psychiatric service per patient per year is 14.1 hours under current psychiatric practice and 2.8 hours under the managed care scenario. The key to psychiatric manpower estimation lies in clarifying the assumptions that underlie the specific method used. Even small differences in assumptions mean large differences in estimates. Any credible manpower estimation process must include discussions and negotiations between psychiatrists, other clinicians, administrators, and patients and families to clarify the treatment needs of patients and the roles, responsibilities, and job description of psychiatrists.

  17. Estimation of Thermal Sensation Based on Wrist Skin Temperatures

    PubMed Central

    Sim, Soo Young; Koh, Myung Jun; Joo, Kwang Min; Noh, Seungwoo; Park, Sangyun; Kim, Youn Ho; Park, Kwang Suk

    2016-01-01

    Thermal comfort is an essential environmental factor related to quality of life and work effectiveness. We assessed the feasibility of wrist skin temperature monitoring for estimating subjective thermal sensation. We invented a wrist band that simultaneously monitors skin temperatures from the wrist (i.e., the radial artery and ulnar artery regions, and upper wrist) and the fingertip. Skin temperatures from eight healthy subjects were acquired while thermal sensation varied. To develop a thermal sensation estimation model, the mean skin temperature, temperature gradient, time differential of the temperatures, and average power of frequency band were calculated. A thermal sensation estimation model using temperatures of the fingertip and wrist showed the highest accuracy (mean root mean square error [RMSE]: 1.26 ± 0.31). An estimation model based on the three wrist skin temperatures showed a slightly better result to the model that used a single fingertip skin temperature (mean RMSE: 1.39 ± 0.18). When a personalized thermal sensation estimation model based on three wrist skin temperatures was used, the mean RMSE was 1.06 ± 0.29, and the correlation coefficient was 0.89. Thermal sensation estimation technology based on wrist skin temperatures, and combined with wearable devices may facilitate intelligent control of one’s thermal environment. PMID:27023538

  18. Estimation of Thermal Sensation Based on Wrist Skin Temperatures.

    PubMed

    Sim, Soo Young; Koh, Myung Jun; Joo, Kwang Min; Noh, Seungwoo; Park, Sangyun; Kim, Youn Ho; Park, Kwang Suk

    2016-03-23

    Thermal comfort is an essential environmental factor related to quality of life and work effectiveness. We assessed the feasibility of wrist skin temperature monitoring for estimating subjective thermal sensation. We invented a wrist band that simultaneously monitors skin temperatures from the wrist (i.e., the radial artery and ulnar artery regions, and upper wrist) and the fingertip. Skin temperatures from eight healthy subjects were acquired while thermal sensation varied. To develop a thermal sensation estimation model, the mean skin temperature, temperature gradient, time differential of the temperatures, and average power of frequency band were calculated. A thermal sensation estimation model using temperatures of the fingertip and wrist showed the highest accuracy (mean root mean square error [RMSE]: 1.26 ± 0.31). An estimation model based on the three wrist skin temperatures showed a slightly better result to the model that used a single fingertip skin temperature (mean RMSE: 1.39 ± 0.18). When a personalized thermal sensation estimation model based on three wrist skin temperatures was used, the mean RMSE was 1.06 ± 0.29, and the correlation coefficient was 0.89. Thermal sensation estimation technology based on wrist skin temperatures, and combined with wearable devices may facilitate intelligent control of one's thermal environment.

  19. Adaptive Window Zero-Crossing-Based Instantaneous Frequency Estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sekhar, S. Chandra; Sreenivas, TV

    2004-12-01

    We address the problem of estimating instantaneous frequency (IF) of a real-valued constant amplitude time-varying sinusoid. Estimation of polynomial IF is formulated using the zero-crossings of the signal. We propose an algorithm to estimate nonpolynomial IF by local approximation using a low-order polynomial, over a short segment of the signal. This involves the choice of window length to minimize the mean square error (MSE). The optimal window length found by directly minimizing the MSE is a function of the higher-order derivatives of the IF which are not available a priori. However, an optimum solution is formulated using an adaptive window technique based on the concept of intersection of confidence intervals. The adaptive algorithm enables minimum MSE-IF (MMSE-IF) estimation without requiring a priori information about the IF. Simulation results show that the adaptive window zero-crossing-based IF estimation method is superior to fixed window methods and is also better than adaptive spectrogram and adaptive Wigner-Ville distribution (WVD)-based IF estimators for different signal-to-noise ratio (SNR).

  20. Pros, Cons, and Alternatives to Weight Based Cost Estimating

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Joyner, Claude R.; Lauriem, Jonathan R.; Levack, Daniel H.; Zapata, Edgar

    2011-01-01

    Many cost estimating tools use weight as a major parameter in projecting the cost. This is often combined with modifying factors such as complexity, technical maturity of design, environment of operation, etc. to increase the fidelity of the estimate. For a set of conceptual designs, all meeting the same requirements, increased weight can be a major driver in increased cost. However, once a design is fixed, increased weight generally decreases cost, while decreased weight generally increases cost - and the relationship is not linear. Alternative approaches to estimating cost without using weight (except perhaps for materials costs) have been attempted to try to produce a tool usable throughout the design process - from concept studies through development. This paper will address the pros and cons of using weight based models for cost estimating, using liquid rocket engines as the example. It will then examine approaches that minimize the impct of weight based cost estimating. The Rocket Engine- Cost Model (RECM) is an attribute based model developed internally by Pratt & Whitney Rocketdyne for NASA. RECM will be presented primarily to show a successful method to use design and programmatic parameters instead of weight to estimate both design and development costs and production costs. An operations model developed by KSC, the Launch and Landing Effects Ground Operations model (LLEGO), will also be discussed.

  1. A novel SURE-based criterion for parametric PSF estimation.

    PubMed

    Xue, Feng; Blu, Thierry

    2015-02-01

    We propose an unbiased estimate of a filtered version of the mean squared error--the blur-SURE (Stein's unbiased risk estimate)--as a novel criterion for estimating an unknown point spread function (PSF) from the degraded image only. The PSF is obtained by minimizing this new objective functional over a family of Wiener processings. Based on this estimated blur kernel, we then perform nonblind deconvolution using our recently developed algorithm. The SURE-based framework is exemplified with a number of parametric PSF, involving a scaling factor that controls the blur size. A typical example of such parametrization is the Gaussian kernel. The experimental results demonstrate that minimizing the blur-SURE yields highly accurate estimates of the PSF parameters, which also result in a restoration quality that is very similar to the one obtained with the exact PSF, when plugged into our recent multi-Wiener SURE-LET deconvolution algorithm. The highly competitive results obtained outline the great potential of developing more powerful blind deconvolution algorithms based on SURE-like estimates.

  2. Inferring invasive species abundance using removal data from management actions.

    PubMed

    Davis, Amy J; Hooten, Mevin B; Miller, Ryan S; Farnsworth, Matthew L; Lewis, Jesse; Moxcey, Michael; Pepin, Kim M

    2016-10-01

    Evaluation of the progress of management programs for invasive species is crucial for demonstrating impacts to stakeholders and strategic planning of resource allocation. Estimates of abundance before and after management activities can serve as a useful metric of population management programs. However, many methods of estimating population size are too labor intensive and costly to implement, posing restrictive levels of burden on operational programs. Removal models are a reliable method for estimating abundance before and after management using data from the removal activities exclusively, thus requiring no work in addition to management. We developed a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate abundance from removal data accounting for varying levels of effort, and used simulations to assess the conditions under which reliable population estimates are obtained. We applied this model to estimate site-specific abundance of an invasive species, feral swine (Sus scrofa), using removal data from aerial gunning in 59 site/time-frame combinations (480-19,600 acres) throughout Oklahoma and Texas, USA. Simulations showed that abundance estimates were generally accurate when effective removal rates (removal rate accounting for total effort) were above 0.40. However, when abundances were small (<50) the effective removal rate needed to accurately estimates abundances was considerably higher (0.70). Based on our post-validation method, 78% of our site/time frame estimates were accurate. To use this modeling framework it is important to have multiple removals (more than three) within a time frame during which demographic changes are minimized (i.e., a closed population; ≤3 months for feral swine). Our results show that the probability of accurately estimating abundance from this model improves with increased sampling effort (8+ flight hours across the 3-month window is best) and increased removal rate. Based on the inverse relationship between inaccurate abundances and

  3. Inferring invasive species abundance using removal data from management actions

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Davis, Amy J.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Miller, Ryan S.; Farnsworth, Matthew L.; Lewis, Jesse S.; Moxcey, Michael; Pepin, Kim M.

    2016-01-01

    Evaluation of the progress of management programs for invasive species is crucial for demonstrating impacts to stakeholders and strategic planning of resource allocation. Estimates of abundance before and after management activities can serve as a useful metric of population management programs. However, many methods of estimating population size are too labor intensive and costly to implement, posing restrictive levels of burden on operational programs. Removal models are a reliable method for estimating abundance before and after management using data from the removal activities exclusively, thus requiring no work in addition to management. We developed a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate abundance from removal data accounting for varying levels of effort, and used simulations to assess the conditions under which reliable population estimates are obtained. We applied this model to estimate site-specific abundance of an invasive species, feral swine (Sus scrofa), using removal data from aerial gunning in 59 site/time-frame combinations (480–19,600 acres) throughout Oklahoma and Texas, USA. Simulations showed that abundance estimates were generally accurate when effective removal rates (removal rate accounting for total effort) were above 0.40. However, when abundances were small (<50) the effective removal rate needed to accurately estimates abundances was considerably higher (0.70). Based on our post-validation method, 78% of our site/time frame estimates were accurate. To use this modeling framework it is important to have multiple removals (more than three) within a time frame during which demographic changes are minimized (i.e., a closed population; ≤3 months for feral swine). Our results show that the probability of accurately estimating abundance from this model improves with increased sampling effort (8+ flight hours across the 3-month window is best) and increased removal rate. Based on the inverse relationship between inaccurate abundances and

  4. A Channelization-Based DOA Estimation Method for Wideband Signals

    PubMed Central

    Guo, Rui; Zhang, Yue; Lin, Qianqiang; Chen, Zengping

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a novel direction of arrival (DOA) estimation method for wideband signals with sensor arrays. The proposed method splits the wideband array output into multiple frequency sub-channels and estimates the signal parameters using a digital channelization receiver. Based on the output sub-channels, a channelization-based incoherent signal subspace method (Channelization-ISM) and a channelization-based test of orthogonality of projected subspaces method (Channelization-TOPS) are proposed. Channelization-ISM applies narrowband signal subspace methods on each sub-channel independently. Then the arithmetic mean or geometric mean of the estimated DOAs from each sub-channel gives the final result. Channelization-TOPS measures the orthogonality between the signal and the noise subspaces of the output sub-channels to estimate DOAs. The proposed channelization-based method isolates signals in different bandwidths reasonably and improves the output SNR. It outperforms the conventional ISM and TOPS methods on estimation accuracy and dynamic range, especially in real environments. Besides, the parallel processing architecture makes it easy to implement on hardware. A wideband digital array radar (DAR) using direct wideband radio frequency (RF) digitization is presented. Experiments carried out in a microwave anechoic chamber with the wideband DAR are presented to demonstrate the performance. The results verify the effectiveness of the proposed method. PMID:27384566

  5. A reference estimator based on composite sensor pattern noise for source device identification

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Ruizhe; Li, Chang-Tsun; Guan, Yu

    2014-02-01

    It has been proved that Sensor Pattern Noise (SPN) can serve as an imaging device fingerprint for source camera identification. Reference SPN estimation is a very important procedure within the framework of this application. Most previous works built reference SPN by averaging the SPNs extracted from 50 images of blue sky. However, this method can be problematic. Firstly, in practice we may face the problem of source camera identification in the absence of the imaging cameras and reference SPNs, which means only natural images with scene details are available for reference SPN estimation rather than blue sky images. It is challenging because the reference SPN can be severely contaminated by image content. Secondly, the number of available reference images sometimes is too few for existing methods to estimate a reliable reference SPN. In fact, existing methods lack consideration of the number of available reference images as they were designed for the datasets with abundant images to estimate the reference SPN. In order to deal with the aforementioned problem, in this work, a novel reference estimator is proposed. Experimental results show that our proposed method achieves better performance than the methods based on the averaged reference SPN, especially when few reference images used.

  6. Aircraft Engine Thrust Estimator Design Based on GSA-LSSVM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sheng, Hanlin; Zhang, Tianhong

    2017-08-01

    In view of the necessity of highly precise and reliable thrust estimator to achieve direct thrust control of aircraft engine, based on support vector regression (SVR), as well as least square support vector machine (LSSVM) and a new optimization algorithm - gravitational search algorithm (GSA), by performing integrated modelling and parameter optimization, a GSA-LSSVM-based thrust estimator design solution is proposed. The results show that compared to particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm, GSA can find unknown optimization parameter better and enables the model developed with better prediction and generalization ability. The model can better predict aircraft engine thrust and thus fulfills the need of direct thrust control of aircraft engine.

  7. Proteomics-based identification of differentially abundant proteins reveals adaptation mechanisms of Xanthomonas citri subsp. citri during Citrus sinensis infection.

    PubMed

    Moreira, Leandro M; Soares, Márcia R; Facincani, Agda P; Ferreira, Cristiano B; Ferreira, Rafael M; Ferro, Maria I T; Gozzo, Fábio C; Felestrino, Érica B; Assis, Renata A B; Garcia, Camila Carrião M; Setubal, João C; Ferro, Jesus A; de Oliveira, Julio C F

    2017-07-11

    Xanthomonas citri subsp. citri (Xac) is the causal agent of citrus canker. A proteomic analysis under in planta infectious and non-infectious conditions was conducted in order to increase our knowledge about the adaptive process of Xac during infection. For that, a 2D-based proteomic analysis of Xac at 1, 3 and 5 days after inoculation, in comparison to Xac growth in NB media was carried out and followed by MALDI-TOF-TOF identification of 124 unique differentially abundant proteins. Among them, 79 correspond to up-regulated proteins in at least one of the three stages of infection. Our results indicate an important role of proteins related to biofilm synthesis, lipopolysaccharides biosynthesis, and iron uptake and metabolism as possible modulators of plant innate immunity, and revealed an intricate network of proteins involved in reactive oxygen species adaptation during Plants` Oxidative Burst response. We also identified proteins previously unknown to be involved in Xac-Citrus interaction, including the hypothetical protein XAC3981. A mutant strain for this gene has proved to be non-pathogenic in respect to classical symptoms of citrus canker induced in compatible plants. This is the first time that a protein repertoire is shown to be active and working in an integrated manner during the infection process in a compatible host, pointing to an elaborate mechanism for adaptation of Xac once inside the plant.

  8. Age estimation based on aspartic acid racemization in human sclera.

    PubMed

    Klumb, Karolin; Matzenauer, Christian; Reckert, Alexandra; Lehmann, Klaus; Ritz-Timme, Stefanie

    2016-01-01

    Age estimation based on racemization of aspartic acid residues (AAR) in permanent proteins has been established in forensic medicine for years. While dentine is the tissue of choice for this molecular method of age estimation, teeth are not always available which leads to the need to identify other suitable tissues. We examined the suitability of total tissue samples of human sclera for the estimation of age at death. Sixty-five samples of scleral tissue were analyzed. The samples were hydrolyzed and after derivatization, the extent of aspartic acid racemization was determined by gas chromatography. The degree of AAR increased with age. In samples from younger individuals, the correlation of age and D-aspartic acid content was closer than in samples from older individuals. The age-dependent racemization in total tissue samples proves that permanent or at least long-living proteins are present in scleral tissue. The correlation of AAR in human sclera and age at death is close enough to serve as basis for age estimation. However, the precision of age estimation by this method is lower than that of age estimation based on the analysis of dentine which is due to molecular inhomogeneities of total tissue samples of sclera. Nevertheless, the approach may serve as a valuable alternative or addition in exceptional cases.

  9. Estimating Soil Hydraulic Parameters using Gradient Based Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rai, P. K.; Tripathi, S.

    2017-12-01

    The conventional way of estimating parameters of a differential equation is to minimize the error between the observations and their estimates. The estimates are produced from forward solution (numerical or analytical) of differential equation assuming a set of parameters. Parameter estimation using the conventional approach requires high computational cost, setting-up of initial and boundary conditions, and formation of difference equations in case the forward solution is obtained numerically. Gaussian process based approaches like Gaussian Process Ordinary Differential Equation (GPODE) and Adaptive Gradient Matching (AGM) have been developed to estimate the parameters of Ordinary Differential Equations without explicitly solving them. Claims have been made that these approaches can straightforwardly be extended to Partial Differential Equations; however, it has been never demonstrated. This study extends AGM approach to PDEs and applies it for estimating parameters of Richards equation. Unlike the conventional approach, the AGM approach does not require setting-up of initial and boundary conditions explicitly, which is often difficult in real world application of Richards equation. The developed methodology was applied to synthetic soil moisture data. It was seen that the proposed methodology can estimate the soil hydraulic parameters correctly and can be a potential alternative to the conventional method.

  10. Estimating Primary Production of Picophytoplankton Using the Carbon-Based Ocean Productivity Model: A Preliminary Study

    PubMed Central

    Liang, Yantao; Zhang, Yongyu; Wang, Nannan; Luo, Tingwei; Zhang, Yao; Rivkin, Richard B.

    2017-01-01

    Picophytoplankton are acknowledged to contribute significantly to primary production (PP) in the ocean while now the method to measure PP of picophytoplankton (PPPico) at large scales is not yet well established. Although the traditional 14C method and new technologies based on the use of stable isotopes (e.g., 13C) can be employed to accurately measure in situ PPPico, the time-consuming and labor-intensive shortage of these methods constrain their application in a survey on large spatiotemporal scales. To overcome this shortage, a modified carbon-based ocean productivity model (CbPM) is proposed for estimating the PPPico whose principle is based on the group-specific abundance, cellular carbon conversion factor (CCF), and temperature-derived growth rate of picophytoplankton. Comparative analysis showed that the estimated PPPico using CbPM method is significantly and positively related (r2 = 0.53, P < 0.001, n = 171) to the measured 14C uptake. This significant relationship suggests that CbPM has the potential to estimate the PPPico over large spatial and temporal scales. Currently this model application may be limited by the use of invariant cellular CCF and the relatively small data sets to validate the model which may introduce some uncertainties and biases. Model performance will be improved by the use of variable conversion factors and the larger data sets representing diverse growth conditions. Finally, we apply the CbPM-based model on the collected data during four cruises in the Bohai Sea in 2005. Model-estimated PPPico ranged from 0.1 to 11.9, 29.9 to 432.8, 5.5 to 214.9, and 2.4 to 65.8 mg C m-2 d-1 during March, June, September, and December, respectively. This study shed light on the estimation of global PPPico using carbon-based production model. PMID:29051755

  11. A phase match based frequency estimation method for sinusoidal signals

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shen, Yan-Lin; Tu, Ya-Qing; Chen, Lin-Jun; Shen, Ting-Ao

    2015-04-01

    Accurate frequency estimation affects the ranging precision of linear frequency modulated continuous wave (LFMCW) radars significantly. To improve the ranging precision of LFMCW radars, a phase match based frequency estimation method is proposed. To obtain frequency estimation, linear prediction property, autocorrelation, and cross correlation of sinusoidal signals are utilized. The analysis of computational complex shows that the computational load of the proposed method is smaller than those of two-stage autocorrelation (TSA) and maximum likelihood. Simulations and field experiments are performed to validate the proposed method, and the results demonstrate the proposed method has better performance in terms of frequency estimation precision than methods of Pisarenko harmonic decomposition, modified covariance, and TSA, which contribute to improving the precision of LFMCW radars effectively.

  12. Groundwater Modelling For Recharge Estimation Using Satellite Based Evapotranspiration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Soheili, Mahmoud; (Tom) Rientjes, T. H. M.; (Christiaan) van der Tol, C.

    2017-04-01

    Groundwater movement is influenced by several factors and processes in the hydrological cycle, from which, recharge is of high relevance. Since the amount of aquifer extractable water directly relates to the recharge amount, estimation of recharge is a perquisite of groundwater resources management. Recharge is highly affected by water loss mechanisms the major of which is actual evapotranspiration (ETa). It is, therefore, essential to have detailed assessment of ETa impact on groundwater recharge. The objective of this study was to evaluate how recharge was affected when satellite-based evapotranspiration was used instead of in-situ based ETa in the Salland area, the Netherlands. The Methodology for Interactive Planning for Water Management (MIPWA) model setup which includes a groundwater model for the northern part of the Netherlands was used for recharge estimation. The Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL) based actual evapotranspiration maps from Waterschap Groot Salland were also used. Comparison of SEBAL based ETa estimates with in-situ abased estimates in the Netherlands showed that these SEBAL estimates were not reliable. As such results could not serve for calibrating root zone parameters in the CAPSIM model. The annual cumulative ETa map produced by the model showed that the maximum amount of evapotranspiration occurs in mixed forest areas in the northeast and a portion of central parts. Estimates ranged from 579 mm to a minimum of 0 mm in the highest elevated areas with woody vegetation in the southeast of the region. Variations in mean seasonal hydraulic head and groundwater level for each layer showed that the hydraulic gradient follows elevation in the Salland area from southeast (maximum) to northwest (minimum) of the region which depicts the groundwater flow direction. The mean seasonal water balance in CAPSIM part was evaluated to represent recharge estimation in the first layer. The highest recharge estimated flux was for autumn

  13. Can we use ground-based measurements of HCFCs and HFCs to derive their emissions, lifetimes, and the global OH abundance?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liang, Q.; Chipperfield, M.; Daniel, J. S.; Burkholder, J. B.; Rigby, M. L.; Velders, G. J. M.

    2015-12-01

    The hydroxyl radical (OH) is the major oxidant in the atmosphere. Reaction with OH is the primary removal process for many non-CO2greenhouse gases (GHGs), ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) and their replacements, e.g. hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). Traditionally, the global OH abundance is inferred using the observed atmospheric rate of change for methyl chloroform (MCF). Due to the Montreal Protocol regulation, the atmospheric abundance of MCF has been decreasing rapidly to near-zero values. It is becoming critical to find an alternative reference compound to continue to provide quantitative information for the global OH abundance. Our model analysis using the NASA 3-D GEOS-5 Chemistry Climate Model suggests that the inter-hemispheric gradients (IHG) of the HCFCs and HFCs show a strong linear correlation with their global emissions. Therefore it is possible to use (i) the observed IHGs of HCFCs and HFCs to estimate their global emissions, and (ii) use the derived emissions and the observed long-term trend to calculate their lifetimes and to infer the global OH abundance. Preliminary analysis using a simple global two-box model (one box for each hemisphere) and information from the global 3-D model suggests that the quantitative relationship between IHG and global emissions varies slightly among individual compounds depending on their lifetime, their emissions history and emission fractions from the two hemispheres. While each compound shows different sensitivity to the above quantities, the combined suite of the HCFCs and HFCs provides a means to derive global OH abundance and the corresponding atmospheric lifetimes of long-lived gases with respect to OH (tOH). The fact that the OH partial lifetimes of these compounds are highly correlated, with the ratio of tOH equal to the reverse ratio of their OH thermal reaction rates at 272K, provides an additional constraint that can greatly reduce the uncertainty in the OH abundance and t

  14. A Web-Based System for Bayesian Benchmark Dose Estimation.

    PubMed

    Shao, Kan; Shapiro, Andrew J

    2018-01-11

    Benchmark dose (BMD) modeling is an important step in human health risk assessment and is used as the default approach to identify the point of departure for risk assessment. A probabilistic framework for dose-response assessment has been proposed and advocated by various institutions and organizations; therefore, a reliable tool is needed to provide distributional estimates for BMD and other important quantities in dose-response assessment. We developed an online system for Bayesian BMD (BBMD) estimation and compared results from this software with U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) Benchmark Dose Software (BMDS). The system is built on a Bayesian framework featuring the application of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling for model parameter estimation and BMD calculation, which makes the BBMD system fundamentally different from the currently prevailing BMD software packages. In addition to estimating the traditional BMDs for dichotomous and continuous data, the developed system is also capable of computing model-averaged BMD estimates. A total of 518 dichotomous and 108 continuous data sets extracted from the U.S. EPA's Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) database (and similar databases) were used as testing data to compare the estimates from the BBMD and BMDS programs. The results suggest that the BBMD system may outperform the BMDS program in a number of aspects, including fewer failed BMD and BMDL calculations and estimates. The BBMD system is a useful alternative tool for estimating BMD with additional functionalities for BMD analysis based on most recent research. Most importantly, the BBMD has the potential to incorporate prior information to make dose-response modeling more reliable and can provide distributional estimates for important quantities in dose-response assessment, which greatly facilitates the current trend for probabilistic risk assessment. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP1289.

  15. Detection of low-abundance biomarker lipocalin 1 for diabetic retinopathy using optoelectrokinetic bead-based immunosensing.

    PubMed

    Wang, Jhih-Cheng; Ku, Hu-Yao; Chen, Tain-Song; Chuang, Han-Sheng

    2017-03-15

    Early diagnosis of diabetic retinopathy (DR) is vital but challenging. DR is a common complication and a major cause of vision loss in patients with diabetes mellitus. Without appropriate medical intervention, visual impairment may become a great burden to our healthcare system. In clinical practice, the current diagnostic methods, such as fluorescence angiography and optical coherence tomography, remain constrained by non-quantitative examinations and individual ophthalmologists' experiences. Late diagnosis often prevents early treatment. To address the constraints on current diagnostics, this study developed an optoelectrokinetic bead-based immunosensing technique for detecting lipocalin 1 (LCN1), a DR biomarker. The concentration level of LCN1 in the tears of DR patients increases with DR severity. The immunoassay was dependent on the formation of sandwiched immunocomplexes on the particles. A secondary antibody labeled with dyes/quantum dots (QDs) was used to visualize the presence of the target antigens. Rapid electrokinetic patterning (REP), an optoelectrokinetic technique, was used to dynamically enhance the fluorescent signal by concentrating the modified particles. The limit of detection (LOD) of the technique could reach 110pg/mL. Only 1.5μL of a sample fluid was required for the measurement. Our results showed that highly sensitive and improved LOD is subjected to particle stacking, small particle size, and compact cluster. By labeling different particle sizes with dyes/QDs for LCN1 and TNF-α, we successfully used REP to detect the two DR biomarkers on the same platform. The development of an optoelectrokinetic bead-based immunosensing technique can provide new insights into diagnosing other low-abundance diseases in the future. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Breast surface estimation for radar-based breast imaging systems.

    PubMed

    Williams, Trevor C; Sill, Jeff M; Fear, Elise C

    2008-06-01

    Radar-based microwave breast-imaging techniques typically require the antennas to be placed at a certain distance from or on the breast surface. This requires prior knowledge of the breast location, shape, and size. The method proposed in this paper for obtaining this information is based on a modified tissue sensing adaptive radar algorithm. First, a breast surface detection scan is performed. Data from this scan are used to localize the breast by creating an estimate of the breast surface. If required, the antennas may then be placed at specified distances from the breast surface for a second tumor-sensing scan. This paper introduces the breast surface estimation and antenna placement algorithms. Surface estimation and antenna placement results are demonstrated on three-dimensional breast models derived from magnetic resonance images.

  17. Older stands characterized and estimated from sample-based surveys

    Treesearch

    Margaret S. Devall; Victor A. Rudis

    1991-01-01

    Old growth criteria from the literature are applied to existing data from systematic sample-based surveys to obtain estimates of detailed attributes for private as well as public stands in the Interior Highlands of Arkansas and Oklahoma. Approximately ¼ of the regions forest is mature. With the most stringent old growth criteria applied, less than 2% of the forested...

  18. A model-based approach to estimating forest area

    Treesearch

    Ronald E. McRoberts

    2006-01-01

    A logistic regression model based on forest inventory plot data and transformations of Landsat Thematic Mapper satellite imagery was used to predict the probability of forest for 15 study areas in Indiana, USA, and 15 in Minnesota, USA. Within each study area, model-based estimates of forest area were obtained for circular areas with radii of 5 km, 10 km, and 15 km and...

  19. River runoff estimates based on remotely sensed surface velocities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grünler, Steffen; Stammer, Detlef; Romeiser, Roland

    2010-05-01

    One promising technique for river runoff estimates from space is the retrieval of surface currents on the basis of synthetic aperture radar along-track interferometry (ATI). The German satellite TerraSAR-X, which was launched in June 2007, will permit ATI measurements in an experimental mode. Based on numerical simulations, we present findings of a research project in which the potential of satellite measurements of various parameters with different temporal and spatial sampling characteristics is evaluated. A sampling strategy for river runoff estimates is developed. We address the achievable accuracy and limitations of such estimates for different local flow conditions at selected test site. High-resolution three-dimensional current fields in the Elbe river (Germany) from a numerical model are used as reference data set and input for simulations of a variety of possible measuring and data interpretation strategies to be evaluated. Addressing the problem of aliasing we removed tidal signals from the sampling data. Discharge estimates on the basis of measured surface current fields and river widths from TerraSAR-X are successfully simulated. The differences of the resulted net discharge estimate are between 30-55% for a required continuously observation period of one year. We discuss the applicability of the measuring strategies to a number of major rivers. Further we show results of runoff estimates by the retrieval of surface current fields by real TerraSAR-X ATI data (AS mode) for the Elbe river study area.

  20. Fine-tuning satellite-based rainfall estimates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harsa, Hastuadi; Buono, Agus; Hidayat, Rahmat; Achyar, Jaumil; Noviati, Sri; Kurniawan, Roni; Praja, Alfan S.

    2018-05-01

    Rainfall datasets are available from various sources, including satellite estimates and ground observation. The locations of ground observation scatter sparsely. Therefore, the use of satellite estimates is advantageous, because satellite estimates can provide data on places where the ground observations do not present. However, in general, the satellite estimates data contain bias, since they are product of algorithms that transform the sensors response into rainfall values. Another cause may come from the number of ground observations used by the algorithms as the reference in determining the rainfall values. This paper describe the application of bias correction method to modify the satellite-based dataset by adding a number of ground observation locations that have not been used before by the algorithm. The bias correction was performed by utilizing Quantile Mapping procedure between ground observation data and satellite estimates data. Since Quantile Mapping required mean and standard deviation of both the reference and the being-corrected data, thus the Inverse Distance Weighting scheme was applied beforehand to the mean and standard deviation of the observation data in order to provide a spatial composition of them, which were originally scattered. Therefore, it was possible to provide a reference data point at the same location with that of the satellite estimates. The results show that the new dataset have statistically better representation of the rainfall values recorded by the ground observation than the previous dataset.

  1. Optimal designs based on the maximum quasi-likelihood estimator

    PubMed Central

    Shen, Gang; Hyun, Seung Won; Wong, Weng Kee

    2016-01-01

    We use optimal design theory and construct locally optimal designs based on the maximum quasi-likelihood estimator (MqLE), which is derived under less stringent conditions than those required for the MLE method. We show that the proposed locally optimal designs are asymptotically as efficient as those based on the MLE when the error distribution is from an exponential family, and they perform just as well or better than optimal designs based on any other asymptotically linear unbiased estimators such as the least square estimator (LSE). In addition, we show current algorithms for finding optimal designs can be directly used to find optimal designs based on the MqLE. As an illustrative application, we construct a variety of locally optimal designs based on the MqLE for the 4-parameter logistic (4PL) model and study their robustness properties to misspecifications in the model using asymptotic relative efficiency. The results suggest that optimal designs based on the MqLE can be easily generated and they are quite robust to mis-specification in the probability distribution of the responses. PMID:28163359

  2. Dictionary-based fiber orientation estimation with improved spatial consistency.

    PubMed

    Ye, Chuyang; Prince, Jerry L

    2018-02-01

    Diffusion magnetic resonance imaging (dMRI) has enabled in vivo investigation of white matter tracts. Fiber orientation (FO) estimation is a key step in tract reconstruction and has been a popular research topic in dMRI analysis. In particular, the sparsity assumption has been used in conjunction with a dictionary-based framework to achieve reliable FO estimation with a reduced number of gradient directions. Because image noise can have a deleterious effect on the accuracy of FO estimation, previous works have incorporated spatial consistency of FOs in the dictionary-based framework to improve the estimation. However, because FOs are only indirectly determined from the mixture fractions of dictionary atoms and not modeled as variables in the objective function, these methods do not incorporate FO smoothness directly, and their ability to produce smooth FOs could be limited. In this work, we propose an improvement to Fiber Orientation Reconstruction using Neighborhood Information (FORNI), which we call FORNI+; this method estimates FOs in a dictionary-based framework where FO smoothness is better enforced than in FORNI alone. We describe an objective function that explicitly models the actual FOs and the mixture fractions of dictionary atoms. Specifically, it consists of data fidelity between the observed signals and the signals represented by the dictionary, pairwise FO dissimilarity that encourages FO smoothness, and weighted ℓ 1 -norm terms that ensure the consistency between the actual FOs and the FO configuration suggested by the dictionary representation. The FOs and mixture fractions are then jointly estimated by minimizing the objective function using an iterative alternating optimization strategy. FORNI+ was evaluated on a simulation phantom, a physical phantom, and real brain dMRI data. In particular, in the real brain dMRI experiment, we have qualitatively and quantitatively evaluated the reproducibility of the proposed method. Results demonstrate that

  3. An estimate of the PH3, CH3D, and GeH4 abundances on Jupiter from the Voyager IRIS data at 4.5 microns

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Drossart, P.; Encrenaz, T.; Combes, M.; Kunde, V.; Hanel, R.

    1982-01-01

    No evidence is found for large scale phosphine abundance variations over Jovian latitudes between -30 and +30 deg, in PH3, CH3D, and GeH4 abundances derived from the 2100-2250/cm region of the Voyager 1 IRIS spectra. The PH3/H2 value of (4.5 + or - 1.5) X 10 to the -7th derived from atmospheric regions corresponding to 170-200 K is 0.75 + or - 0.25 times the solar value, and suggests that the PH3/H2 ratio on Jupiter decreases with atmospheric pressure upon comparison with other PH3 determinations at 10 microns. In the 200-250 K region, CH3D/H2 and GeH4/H2 ratios of 2.0 X 10 to the -7th and 1.0 X 10 to the -9th, respectively, are derived within a factor of 2.0. Assuming a C/H value of 0.001, as derived from Voyager, the CH3D/H2 ratio obtained in this study implies a D/H ratio of 0.000018. This is in agreement with the interstellar medium value.

  4. Estimating evaporative vapor generation from automobiles based on parking activities.

    PubMed

    Dong, Xinyi; Tschantz, Michael; Fu, Joshua S

    2015-07-01

    A new approach is proposed to quantify the evaporative vapor generation based on real parking activity data. As compared to the existing methods, two improvements are applied in this new approach to reduce the uncertainties: First, evaporative vapor generation from diurnal parking events is usually calculated based on estimated average parking duration for the whole fleet, while in this study, vapor generation rate is calculated based on parking activities distribution. Second, rather than using the daily temperature gradient, this study uses hourly temperature observations to derive the hourly incremental vapor generation rates. The parking distribution and hourly incremental vapor generation rates are then adopted with Wade-Reddy's equation to estimate the weighted average evaporative generation. We find that hourly incremental rates can better describe the temporal variations of vapor generation, and the weighted vapor generation rate is 5-8% less than calculation without considering parking activity. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Event-Based Stereo Depth Estimation Using Belief Propagation.

    PubMed

    Xie, Zhen; Chen, Shengyong; Orchard, Garrick

    2017-01-01

    Compared to standard frame-based cameras, biologically-inspired event-based sensors capture visual information with low latency and minimal redundancy. These event-based sensors are also far less prone to motion blur than traditional cameras, and still operate effectively in high dynamic range scenes. However, classical framed-based algorithms are not typically suitable for these event-based data and new processing algorithms are required. This paper focuses on the problem of depth estimation from a stereo pair of event-based sensors. A fully event-based stereo depth estimation algorithm which relies on message passing is proposed. The algorithm not only considers the properties of a single event but also uses a Markov Random Field (MRF) to consider the constraints between the nearby events, such as disparity uniqueness and depth continuity. The method is tested on five different scenes and compared to other state-of-art event-based stereo matching methods. The results show that the method detects more stereo matches than other methods, with each match having a higher accuracy. The method can operate in an event-driven manner where depths are reported for individual events as they are received, or the network can be queried at any time to generate a sparse depth frame which represents the current state of the network.

  6. Estimation of Supercapacitor Energy Storage Based on Fractional Differential Equations.

    PubMed

    Kopka, Ryszard

    2017-12-22

    In this paper, new results on using only voltage measurements on supercapacitor terminals for estimation of accumulated energy are presented. For this purpose, a study based on application of fractional-order models of supercapacitor charging/discharging circuits is undertaken. Parameter estimates of the models are then used to assess the amount of the energy accumulated in supercapacitor. The obtained results are compared with energy determined experimentally by measuring voltage and current on supercapacitor terminals. All the tests are repeated for various input signal shapes and parameters. Very high consistency between estimated and experimental results fully confirm suitability of the proposed approach and thus applicability of the fractional calculus to modelling of supercapacitor energy storage.

  7. Transient Stability Output Margin Estimation Based on Energy Function Method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miwa, Natsuki; Tanaka, Kazuyuki

    In this paper, a new method of estimating critical generation margin (CGM) in power systems is proposed from the viewpoint of transient stability diagnostic. The proposed method has the capability to directly compute the stability limit output for a given contingency based on transient energy function method (TEF). Since CGM can be directly obtained by the limit output using estimated P-θ curves and is easy to understand, it is more useful rather than conventional critical clearing time (CCT) of energy function method. The proposed method can also estimate CGM as its negative value that means unstable in present load profile, then negative CGM can be directly utilized as generator output restriction. The proposed method is verified its accuracy and fast solution ability by applying to simple 3-machine model and IEEJ EAST10-machine standard model. Furthermore the useful application to severity ranking of transient stability for a lot of contingency cases is discussed by using CGM.

  8. Two-pass smoother based on the SVSF estimation strategy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gadsden, S. A.; Al-Shabi, M.; Kirubarajan, T.

    2015-05-01

    The smooth variable structure filter (SVSF) has seen significant development and research activity in recent years. It is based on sliding mode concepts, which utilizes a switching gain that brings an inherent amount of stability to the estimation process. In this paper, the SVSF is reformulated to present a two-pass smoother based on the SVSF gain. The proposed method is applied on an aerospace flight surface actuator, and the results are compared with the popular Kalman-based two-pass smoother.

  9. ON ESTIMATING FORCE-FREENESS BASED ON OBSERVED MAGNETOGRAMS

    SciTech Connect

    Zhang, X. M.; Zhang, M.; Su, J. T., E-mail: xmzhang@nao.cas.cn

    It is a common practice in the solar physics community to test whether or not measured photospheric or chromospheric vector magnetograms are force-free, using the Maxwell stress as a measure. Some previous studies have suggested that magnetic fields of active regions in the solar chromosphere are close to being force-free whereas there is no consistency among previous studies on whether magnetic fields of active regions in the solar photosphere are force-free or not. Here we use three kinds of representative magnetic fields (analytical force-free solutions, modeled solar-like force-free fields, and observed non-force-free fields) to discuss how measurement issues such asmore » limited field of view (FOV), instrument sensitivity, and measurement error could affect the estimation of force-freeness based on observed magnetograms. Unlike previous studies that focus on discussing the effect of limited FOV or instrument sensitivity, our calculation shows that just measurement error alone can significantly influence the results of estimates of force-freeness, due to the fact that measurement errors in horizontal magnetic fields are usually ten times larger than those in vertical fields. This property of measurement errors, interacting with the particular form of a formula for estimating force-freeness, would result in wrong judgments of the force-freeness: a truly force-free field may be mistakenly estimated as being non-force-free and a truly non-force-free field may be estimated as being force-free. Our analysis calls for caution when interpreting estimates of force-freeness based on measured magnetograms, and also suggests that the true photospheric magnetic field may be further away from being force-free than it currently appears to be.« less

  10. MRI-Based Intelligence Quotient (IQ) Estimation with Sparse Learning

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Liye; Wee, Chong-Yaw; Suk, Heung-Il; Tang, Xiaoying; Shen, Dinggang

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a novel framework for IQ estimation using Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) data. In particular, we devise a new feature selection method based on an extended dirty model for jointly considering both element-wise sparsity and group-wise sparsity. Meanwhile, due to the absence of large dataset with consistent scanning protocols for the IQ estimation, we integrate multiple datasets scanned from different sites with different scanning parameters and protocols. In this way, there is large variability in these different datasets. To address this issue, we design a two-step procedure for 1) first identifying the possible scanning site for each testing subject and 2) then estimating the testing subject’s IQ by using a specific estimator designed for that scanning site. We perform two experiments to test the performance of our method by using the MRI data collected from 164 typically developing children between 6 and 15 years old. In the first experiment, we use a multi-kernel Support Vector Regression (SVR) for estimating IQ values, and obtain an average correlation coefficient of 0.718 and also an average root mean square error of 8.695 between the true IQs and the estimated ones. In the second experiment, we use a single-kernel SVR for IQ estimation, and achieve an average correlation coefficient of 0.684 and an average root mean square error of 9.166. All these results show the effectiveness of using imaging data for IQ prediction, which is rarely done in the field according to our knowledge. PMID:25822851

  11. MRI-based intelligence quotient (IQ) estimation with sparse learning.

    PubMed

    Wang, Liye; Wee, Chong-Yaw; Suk, Heung-Il; Tang, Xiaoying; Shen, Dinggang

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a novel framework for IQ estimation using Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) data. In particular, we devise a new feature selection method based on an extended dirty model for jointly considering both element-wise sparsity and group-wise sparsity. Meanwhile, due to the absence of large dataset with consistent scanning protocols for the IQ estimation, we integrate multiple datasets scanned from different sites with different scanning parameters and protocols. In this way, there is large variability in these different datasets. To address this issue, we design a two-step procedure for 1) first identifying the possible scanning site for each testing subject and 2) then estimating the testing subject's IQ by using a specific estimator designed for that scanning site. We perform two experiments to test the performance of our method by using the MRI data collected from 164 typically developing children between 6 and 15 years old. In the first experiment, we use a multi-kernel Support Vector Regression (SVR) for estimating IQ values, and obtain an average correlation coefficient of 0.718 and also an average root mean square error of 8.695 between the true IQs and the estimated ones. In the second experiment, we use a single-kernel SVR for IQ estimation, and achieve an average correlation coefficient of 0.684 and an average root mean square error of 9.166. All these results show the effectiveness of using imaging data for IQ prediction, which is rarely done in the field according to our knowledge.

  12. Uav-Based Automatic Tree Growth Measurement for Biomass Estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karpina, M.; Jarząbek-Rychard, M.; Tymków, P.; Borkowski, A.

    2016-06-01

    Manual in-situ measurements of geometric tree parameters for the biomass volume estimation are time-consuming and economically non-effective. Photogrammetric techniques can be deployed in order to automate the measurement procedure. The purpose of the presented work is an automatic tree growth estimation based on Unmanned Aircraft Vehicle (UAV) imagery. The experiment was conducted in an agriculture test field with scots pine canopies. The data was collected using a Leica Aibotix X6V2 platform equipped with a Nikon D800 camera. Reference geometric parameters of selected sample plants were measured manually each week. In situ measurements were correlated with the UAV data acquisition. The correlation aimed at the investigation of optimal conditions for a flight and parameter settings for image acquisition. The collected images are processed in a state of the art tool resulting in a generation of dense 3D point clouds. The algorithm is developed in order to estimate geometric tree parameters from 3D points. Stem positions and tree tops are identified automatically in a cross section, followed by the calculation of tree heights. The automatically derived height values are compared to the reference measurements performed manually. The comparison allows for the evaluation of automatic growth estimation process. The accuracy achieved using UAV photogrammetry for tree heights estimation is about 5cm.

  13. Neuromorphic Event-Based 3D Pose Estimation

    PubMed Central

    Reverter Valeiras, David; Orchard, Garrick; Ieng, Sio-Hoi; Benosman, Ryad B.

    2016-01-01

    Pose estimation is a fundamental step in many artificial vision tasks. It consists of estimating the 3D pose of an object with respect to a camera from the object's 2D projection. Current state of the art implementations operate on images. These implementations are computationally expensive, especially for real-time applications. Scenes with fast dynamics exceeding 30–60 Hz can rarely be processed in real-time using conventional hardware. This paper presents a new method for event-based 3D object pose estimation, making full use of the high temporal resolution (1 μs) of asynchronous visual events output from a single neuromorphic camera. Given an initial estimate of the pose, each incoming event is used to update the pose by combining both 3D and 2D criteria. We show that the asynchronous high temporal resolution of the neuromorphic camera allows us to solve the problem in an incremental manner, achieving real-time performance at an update rate of several hundreds kHz on a conventional laptop. We show that the high temporal resolution of neuromorphic cameras is a key feature for performing accurate pose estimation. Experiments are provided showing the performance of the algorithm on real data, including fast moving objects, occlusions, and cases where the neuromorphic camera and the object are both in motion. PMID:26834547

  14. Variational optical flow estimation based on stick tensor voting.

    PubMed

    Rashwan, Hatem A; Garcia, Miguel A; Puig, Domenec

    2013-07-01

    Variational optical flow techniques allow the estimation of flow fields from spatio-temporal derivatives. They are based on minimizing a functional that contains a data term and a regularization term. Recently, numerous approaches have been presented for improving the accuracy of the estimated flow fields. Among them, tensor voting has been shown to be particularly effective in the preservation of flow discontinuities. This paper presents an adaptation of the data term by using anisotropic stick tensor voting in order to gain robustness against noise and outliers with significantly lower computational cost than (full) tensor voting. In addition, an anisotropic complementary smoothness term depending on directional information estimated through stick tensor voting is utilized in order to preserve discontinuity capabilities of the estimated flow fields. Finally, a weighted non-local term that depends on both the estimated directional information and the occlusion state of pixels is integrated during the optimization process in order to denoise the final flow field. The proposed approach yields state-of-the-art results on the Middlebury benchmark.

  15. Statistical properties of Fourier-based time-lag estimates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Epitropakis, A.; Papadakis, I. E.

    2016-06-01

    Context. The study of X-ray time-lag spectra in active galactic nuclei (AGN) is currently an active research area, since it has the potential to illuminate the physics and geometry of the innermost region (I.e. close to the putative super-massive black hole) in these objects. To obtain reliable information from these studies, the statistical properties of time-lags estimated from data must be known as accurately as possible. Aims: We investigated the statistical properties of Fourier-based time-lag estimates (I.e. based on the cross-periodogram), using evenly sampled time series with no missing points. Our aim is to provide practical "guidelines" on estimating time-lags that are minimally biased (I.e. whose mean is close to their intrinsic value) and have known errors. Methods: Our investigation is based on both analytical work and extensive numerical simulations. The latter consisted of generating artificial time series with various signal-to-noise ratios and sampling patterns/durations similar to those offered by AGN observations with present and past X-ray satellites. We also considered a range of different model time-lag spectra commonly assumed in X-ray analyses of compact accreting systems. Results: Discrete sampling, binning and finite light curve duration cause the mean of the time-lag estimates to have a smaller magnitude than their intrinsic values. Smoothing (I.e. binning over consecutive frequencies) of the cross-periodogram can add extra bias at low frequencies. The use of light curves with low signal-to-noise ratio reduces the intrinsic coherence, and can introduce a bias to the sample coherence, time-lag estimates, and their predicted error. Conclusions: Our results have direct implications for X-ray time-lag studies in AGN, but can also be applied to similar studies in other research fields. We find that: a) time-lags should be estimated at frequencies lower than ≈ 1/2 the Nyquist frequency to minimise the effects of discrete binning of the

  16. Neural Net Gains Estimation Based on an Equivalent Model

    PubMed Central

    Aguilar Cruz, Karen Alicia; Medel Juárez, José de Jesús; Fernández Muñoz, José Luis; Esmeralda Vigueras Velázquez, Midory

    2016-01-01

    A model of an Equivalent Artificial Neural Net (EANN) describes the gains set, viewed as parameters in a layer, and this consideration is a reproducible process, applicable to a neuron in a neural net (NN). The EANN helps to estimate the NN gains or parameters, so we propose two methods to determine them. The first considers a fuzzy inference combined with the traditional Kalman filter, obtaining the equivalent model and estimating in a fuzzy sense the gains matrix A and the proper gain K into the traditional filter identification. The second develops a direct estimation in state space, describing an EANN using the expected value and the recursive description of the gains estimation. Finally, a comparison of both descriptions is performed; highlighting the analytical method describes the neural net coefficients in a direct form, whereas the other technique requires selecting into the Knowledge Base (KB) the factors based on the functional error and the reference signal built with the past information of the system. PMID:27366146

  17. MODIS Based Estimation of Forest Aboveground Biomass in China.

    PubMed

    Yin, Guodong; Zhang, Yuan; Sun, Yan; Wang, Tao; Zeng, Zhenzhong; Piao, Shilong

    2015-01-01

    Accurate estimation of forest biomass C stock is essential to understand carbon cycles. However, current estimates of Chinese forest biomass are mostly based on inventory-based timber volumes and empirical conversion factors at the provincial scale, which could introduce large uncertainties in forest biomass estimation. Here we provide a data-driven estimate of Chinese forest aboveground biomass from 2001 to 2013 at a spatial resolution of 1 km by integrating a recently reviewed plot-level ground-measured forest aboveground biomass database with geospatial information from 1-km Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) dataset in a machine learning algorithm (the model tree ensemble, MTE). We show that Chinese forest aboveground biomass is 8.56 Pg C, which is mainly contributed by evergreen needle-leaf forests and deciduous broadleaf forests. The mean forest aboveground biomass density is 56.1 Mg C ha-1, with high values observed in temperate humid regions. The responses of forest aboveground biomass density to mean annual temperature are closely tied to water conditions; that is, negative responses dominate regions with mean annual precipitation less than 1300 mm y-1 and positive responses prevail in regions with mean annual precipitation higher than 2800 mm y-1. During the 2000s, the forests in China sequestered C by 61.9 Tg C y-1, and this C sink is mainly distributed in north China and may be attributed to warming climate, rising CO2 concentration, N deposition, and growth of young forests.

  18. MODIS Based Estimation of Forest Aboveground Biomass in China

    PubMed Central

    Sun, Yan; Wang, Tao; Zeng, Zhenzhong; Piao, Shilong

    2015-01-01

    Accurate estimation of forest biomass C stock is essential to understand carbon cycles. However, current estimates of Chinese forest biomass are mostly based on inventory-based timber volumes and empirical conversion factors at the provincial scale, which could introduce large uncertainties in forest biomass estimation. Here we provide a data-driven estimate of Chinese forest aboveground biomass from 2001 to 2013 at a spatial resolution of 1 km by integrating a recently reviewed plot-level ground-measured forest aboveground biomass database with geospatial information from 1-km Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) dataset in a machine learning algorithm (the model tree ensemble, MTE). We show that Chinese forest aboveground biomass is 8.56 Pg C, which is mainly contributed by evergreen needle-leaf forests and deciduous broadleaf forests. The mean forest aboveground biomass density is 56.1 Mg C ha−1, with high values observed in temperate humid regions. The responses of forest aboveground biomass density to mean annual temperature are closely tied to water conditions; that is, negative responses dominate regions with mean annual precipitation less than 1300 mm y−1 and positive responses prevail in regions with mean annual precipitation higher than 2800 mm y−1. During the 2000s, the forests in China sequestered C by 61.9 Tg C y−1, and this C sink is mainly distributed in north China and may be attributed to warming climate, rising CO2 concentration, N deposition, and growth of young forests. PMID:26115195

  19. Neural Net Gains Estimation Based on an Equivalent Model.

    PubMed

    Aguilar Cruz, Karen Alicia; Medel Juárez, José de Jesús; Fernández Muñoz, José Luis; Esmeralda Vigueras Velázquez, Midory

    2016-01-01

    A model of an Equivalent Artificial Neural Net (EANN) describes the gains set, viewed as parameters in a layer, and this consideration is a reproducible process, applicable to a neuron in a neural net (NN). The EANN helps to estimate the NN gains or parameters, so we propose two methods to determine them. The first considers a fuzzy inference combined with the traditional Kalman filter, obtaining the equivalent model and estimating in a fuzzy sense the gains matrix A and the proper gain K into the traditional filter identification. The second develops a direct estimation in state space, describing an EANN using the expected value and the recursive description of the gains estimation. Finally, a comparison of both descriptions is performed; highlighting the analytical method describes the neural net coefficients in a direct form, whereas the other technique requires selecting into the Knowledge Base (KB) the factors based on the functional error and the reference signal built with the past information of the system.

  20. Arterial stiffness estimation based photoplethysmographic pulse wave analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huotari, Matti; Maatta, Kari; Kostamovaara, Juha

    2010-11-01

    Arterial stiffness is one of the indices of vascular healthiness. It is based on pulse wave analysis. In the case we decompose the pulse waveform for the estimation and determination of arterial elasticity. Firstly, optically measured with photoplethysmograph and then investigating means by four lognormal pulse waveforms for which we can find very good fit between the original and summed decomposed pulse wave. Several studies have demonstrated that these kinds of measures predict cardiovascular events. While dynamic factors, e.g., arterial stiffness, depend on fixed structural features of the vascular wall. Arterial stiffness is estimated based on pulse wave decomposition analysis in the radial and tibial arteries. Elucidation of the precise relationship between endothelial function and vascular stiffness awaits still further study.

  1. CO Component Estimation Based on the Independent Component Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ichiki, Kiyotomo; Kaji, Ryohei; Yamamoto, Hiroaki; Takeuchi, Tsutomu T.; Fukui, Yasuo

    2014-01-01

    Fast Independent Component Analysis (FastICA) is a component separation algorithm based on the levels of non-Gaussianity. Here we apply FastICA to the component separation problem of the microwave background, including carbon monoxide (CO) line emissions that are found to contaminate the PLANCK High Frequency Instrument (HFI) data. Specifically, we prepare 100 GHz, 143 GHz, and 217 GHz mock microwave sky maps, which include galactic thermal dust, NANTEN CO line, and the cosmic microwave background (CMB) emissions, and then estimate the independent components based on the kurtosis. We find that FastICA can successfully estimate the CO component as the first independent component in our deflection algorithm because its distribution has the largest degree of non-Gaussianity among the components. Thus, FastICA can be a promising technique to extract CO-like components without prior assumptions about their distributions and frequency dependences.

  2. CO component estimation based on the independent component analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Ichiki, Kiyotomo; Kaji, Ryohei; Yamamoto, Hiroaki

    2014-01-01

    Fast Independent Component Analysis (FastICA) is a component separation algorithm based on the levels of non-Gaussianity. Here we apply FastICA to the component separation problem of the microwave background, including carbon monoxide (CO) line emissions that are found to contaminate the PLANCK High Frequency Instrument (HFI) data. Specifically, we prepare 100 GHz, 143 GHz, and 217 GHz mock microwave sky maps, which include galactic thermal dust, NANTEN CO line, and the cosmic microwave background (CMB) emissions, and then estimate the independent components based on the kurtosis. We find that FastICA can successfully estimate the CO component as the first independentmore » component in our deflection algorithm because its distribution has the largest degree of non-Gaussianity among the components. Thus, FastICA can be a promising technique to extract CO-like components without prior assumptions about their distributions and frequency dependences.« less

  3. A switched systems approach to image-based estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parikh, Anup

    With the advent of technological improvements in imaging systems and computational resources, as well as the development of image-based reconstruction techniques, it is necessary to understand algorithm performance when subject to real world conditions. Specifically, this dissertation focuses on the stability and performance of a class of image-based observers in the presence of intermittent measurements, caused by e.g., occlusions, limited FOV, feature tracking losses, communication losses, or finite frame rates. Observers or filters that are exponentially stable under persistent observability may have unbounded error growth during intermittent sensing, even while providing seemingly accurate state estimates. In Chapter 3, dwell time conditions are developed to guarantee state estimation error convergence to an ultimate bound for a class of observers while undergoing measurement loss. Bounds are developed on the unstable growth of the estimation errors during the periods when the object being tracked is not visible. A Lyapunov-based analysis for the switched system is performed to develop an inequality in terms of the duration of time the observer can view the moving object and the duration of time the object is out of the field of view. In Chapter 4, a motion model is used to predict the evolution of the states of the system while the object is not visible. This reduces the growth rate of the bounding function to an exponential and enables the use of traditional switched systems Lyapunov analysis techniques. The stability analysis results in an average dwell time condition to guarantee state error convergence with a known decay rate. In comparison with the results in Chapter 3, the estimation errors converge to zero rather than a ball, with relaxed switching conditions, at the cost of requiring additional information about the motion of the feature. In some applications, a motion model of the object may not be available. Numerous adaptive techniques have been

  4. A Novel Rules Based Approach for Estimating Software Birthmark

    PubMed Central

    Binti Alias, Norma; Anwar, Sajid

    2015-01-01

    Software birthmark is a unique quality of software to detect software theft. Comparing birthmarks of software can tell us whether a program or software is a copy of another. Software theft and piracy are rapidly increasing problems of copying, stealing, and misusing the software without proper permission, as mentioned in the desired license agreement. The estimation of birthmark can play a key role in understanding the effectiveness of a birthmark. In this paper, a new technique is presented to evaluate and estimate software birthmark based on the two most sought-after properties of birthmarks, that is, credibility and resilience. For this purpose, the concept of soft computing such as probabilistic and fuzzy computing has been taken into account and fuzzy logic is used to estimate properties of birthmark. The proposed fuzzy rule based technique is validated through a case study and the results show that the technique is successful in assessing the specified properties of the birthmark, its resilience and credibility. This, in turn, shows how much effort will be required to detect the originality of the software based on its birthmark. PMID:25945363

  5. Rectal temperature-based death time estimation in infants.

    PubMed

    Igari, Yui; Hosokai, Yoshiyuki; Funayama, Masato

    2016-03-01

    In determining the time of death in infants based on rectal temperature, the same methods used in adults are generally used. However, whether the methods for adults are suitable for infants is unclear. In this study, we examined the following 3 methods in 20 infant death cases: computer simulation of rectal temperature based on the infinite cylinder model (Ohno's method), computer-based double exponential approximation based on Marshall and Hoare's double exponential model with Henssge's parameter determination (Henssge's method), and computer-based collinear approximation based on extrapolation of the rectal temperature curve (collinear approximation). The interval between the last time the infant was seen alive and the time that he/she was found dead was defined as the death time interval and compared with the estimated time of death. In Ohno's method, 7 cases were within the death time interval, and the average deviation in the other 12 cases was approximately 80 min. The results of both Henssge's method and collinear approximation were apparently inferior to the results of Ohno's method. The corrective factor was set within the range of 0.7-1.3 in Henssge's method, and a modified program was newly developed to make it possible to change the corrective factors. Modification A, in which the upper limit of the corrective factor range was set as the maximum value in each body weight, produced the best results: 8 cases were within the death time interval, and the average deviation in the other 12 cases was approximately 80min. There was a possibility that the influence of thermal isolation on the actual infants was stronger than that previously shown by Henssge. We conclude that Ohno's method and Modification A are useful for death time estimation in infants. However, it is important to accept the estimated time of death with certain latitude considering other circumstances. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Estimating Evapotranspiration Using an Observation Based Terrestrial Water Budget

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rodell, Matthew; McWilliams, Eric B.; Famiglietti, James S.; Beaudoing, Hiroko K.; Nigro, Joseph

    2011-01-01

    Evapotranspiration (ET) is difficult to measure at the scales of climate models and climate variability. While satellite retrieval algorithms do exist, their accuracy is limited by the sparseness of in situ observations available for calibration and validation, which themselves may be unrepresentative of 500m and larger scale satellite footprints and grid pixels. Here, we use a combination of satellite and ground-based observations to close the water budgets of seven continental scale river basins (Mackenzie, Fraser, Nelson, Mississippi, Tocantins, Danube, and Ubangi), estimating mean ET as a residual. For any river basin, ET must equal total precipitation minus net runoff minus the change in total terrestrial water storage (TWS), in order for mass to be conserved. We make use of precipitation from two global observation-based products, archived runoff data, and TWS changes from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment satellite mission. We demonstrate that while uncertainty in the water budget-based estimates of monthly ET is often too large for those estimates to be useful, the uncertainty in the mean annual cycle is small enough that it is practical for evaluating other ET products. Here, we evaluate five land surface model simulations, two operational atmospheric analyses, and a recent global reanalysis product based on our results. An important outcome is that the water budget-based ET time series in two tropical river basins, one in Brazil and the other in central Africa, exhibit a weak annual cycle, which may help to resolve debate about the strength of the annual cycle of ET in such regions and how ET is constrained throughout the year. The methods described will be useful for water and energy budget studies, weather and climate model assessments, and satellite-based ET retrieval optimization.

  7. SPECTRAL data-based estimation of soil heat flux

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Singh, Ramesh K.; Irmak, A.; Walter-Shea, Elizabeth; Verma, S.B.; Suyker, A.E.

    2011-01-01

    Numerous existing spectral-based soil heat flux (G) models have shown wide variation in performance for maize and soybean cropping systems in Nebraska, indicating the need for localized calibration and model development. The objectives of this article are to develop a semi-empirical model to estimate G from a normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and net radiation (Rn) for maize (Zea mays L.) and soybean (Glycine max L.) fields in the Great Plains, and present the suitability of the developed model to estimate G under similar and different soil and management conditions. Soil heat fluxes measured in both irrigated and rainfed fields in eastern and south-central Nebraska were used for model development and validation. An exponential model that uses NDVI and Rn was found to be the best to estimate G based on r2 values. The effect of geographic location, crop, and water management practices were used to develop semi-empirical models under four case studies. Each case study has the same exponential model structure but a different set of coefficients and exponents to represent the crop, soil, and management practices. Results showed that the semi-empirical models can be used effectively for G estimation for nearby fields with similar soil properties for independent years, regardless of differences in crop type, crop rotation, and irrigation practices, provided that the crop residue from the previous year is more than 4000 kg ha-1. The coefficients calibrated from particular fields can be used at nearby fields in order to capture temporal variation in G. However, there is a need for further investigation of the models to account for the interaction effects of crop rotation and irrigation. Validation at an independent site having different soil and crop management practices showed the limitation of the semi-empirical model in estimating G under different soil and environment conditions.

  8. Model-based estimators of density and connectivity to inform conservation of spatially structured populations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Morin, Dana J.; Fuller, Angela K.; Royle, J. Andrew; Sutherland, Chris

    2017-01-01

    Conservation and management of spatially structured populations is challenging because solutions must consider where individuals are located, but also differential individual space use as a result of landscape heterogeneity. A recent extension of spatial capture–recapture (SCR) models, the ecological distance model, uses spatial encounter histories of individuals (e.g., a record of where individuals are detected across space, often sequenced over multiple sampling occasions), to estimate the relationship between space use and characteristics of a landscape, allowing simultaneous estimation of both local densities of individuals across space and connectivity at the scale of individual movement. We developed two model-based estimators derived from the SCR ecological distance model to quantify connectivity over a continuous surface: (1) potential connectivity—a metric of the connectivity of areas based on resistance to individual movement; and (2) density-weighted connectivity (DWC)—potential connectivity weighted by estimated density. Estimates of potential connectivity and DWC can provide spatial representations of areas that are most important for the conservation of threatened species, or management of abundant populations (i.e., areas with high density and landscape connectivity), and thus generate predictions that have great potential to inform conservation and management actions. We used a simulation study with a stationary trap design across a range of landscape resistance scenarios to evaluate how well our model estimates resistance, potential connectivity, and DWC. Correlation between true and estimated potential connectivity was high, and there was positive correlation and high spatial accuracy between estimated DWC and true DWC. We applied our approach to data collected from a population of black bears in New York, and found that forested areas represented low levels of resistance for black bears. We demonstrate that formal inference about measures

  9. Modeling avian abundance from replicated counts using binomial mixture models

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kery, Marc; Royle, J. Andrew; Schmid, Hans

    2005-01-01

    Abundance estimation in ecology is usually accomplished by capture–recapture, removal, or distance sampling methods. These may be hard to implement at large spatial scales. In contrast, binomial mixture models enable abundance estimation without individual identification, based simply on temporally and spatially replicated counts. Here, we evaluate mixture models using data from the national breeding bird monitoring program in Switzerland, where some 250 1-km2 quadrats are surveyed using the territory mapping method three times during each breeding season. We chose eight species with contrasting distribution (wide–narrow), abundance (high–low), and detectability (easy–difficult). Abundance was modeled as a random effect with a Poisson or negative binomial distribution, with mean affected by forest cover, elevation, and route length. Detectability was a logit-linear function of survey date, survey date-by-elevation, and sampling effort (time per transect unit). Resulting covariate effects and parameter estimates were consistent with expectations. Detectability per territory (for three surveys) ranged from 0.66 to 0.94 (mean 0.84) for easy species, and from 0.16 to 0.83 (mean 0.53) for difficult species, depended on survey effort for two easy and all four difficult species, and changed seasonally for three easy and three difficult species. Abundance was positively related to route length in three high-abundance and one low-abundance (one easy and three difficult) species, and increased with forest cover in five forest species, decreased for two nonforest species, and was unaffected for a generalist species. Abundance estimates under the most parsimonious mixture models were between 1.1 and 8.9 (median 1.8) times greater than estimates based on territory mapping; hence, three surveys were insufficient to detect all territories for each species. We conclude that binomial mixture models are an important new approach for estimating abundance corrected for

  10. Ratio-based estimators for a change point in persistence.

    PubMed

    Halunga, Andreea G; Osborn, Denise R

    2012-11-01

    We study estimation of the date of change in persistence, from [Formula: see text] to [Formula: see text] or vice versa. Contrary to statements in the original papers, our analytical results establish that the ratio-based break point estimators of Kim [Kim, J.Y., 2000. Detection of change in persistence of a linear time series. Journal of Econometrics 95, 97-116], Kim et al. [Kim, J.Y., Belaire-Franch, J., Badillo Amador, R., 2002. Corringendum to "Detection of change in persistence of a linear time series". Journal of Econometrics 109, 389-392] and Busetti and Taylor [Busetti, F., Taylor, A.M.R., 2004. Tests of stationarity against a change in persistence. Journal of Econometrics 123, 33-66] are inconsistent when a mean (or other deterministic component) is estimated for the process. In such cases, the estimators converge to random variables with upper bound given by the true break date when persistence changes from [Formula: see text] to [Formula: see text]. A Monte Carlo study confirms the large sample downward bias and also finds substantial biases in moderate sized samples, partly due to properties at the end points of the search interval.

  11. On soil textural classifications and soil-texture-based estimations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ángel Martín, Miguel; Pachepsky, Yakov A.; García-Gutiérrez, Carlos; Reyes, Miguel

    2018-02-01

    The soil texture representation with the standard textural fraction triplet sand-silt-clay is commonly used to estimate soil properties. The objective of this work was to test the hypothesis that other fraction sizes in the triplets may provide a better representation of soil texture for estimating some soil parameters. We estimated the cumulative particle size distribution and bulk density from an entropy-based representation of the textural triplet with experimental data for 6240 soil samples. The results supported the hypothesis. For example, simulated distributions were not significantly different from the original ones in 25 and 85 % of cases when the sand-silt-clay and very coarse+coarse + medium sand - fine + very fine sand - silt+clay were used, respectively. When the same standard and modified triplets were used to estimate the average bulk density, the coefficients of determination were 0.001 and 0.967, respectively. Overall, the textural triplet selection appears to be application and data specific.

  12. AATSR Based Volcanic Ash Plume Top Height Estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Virtanen, Timo H.; Kolmonen, Pekka; Sogacheva, Larisa; Sundstrom, Anu-Maija; Rodriguez, Edith; de Leeuw, Gerrit

    2015-11-01

    The AATSR Correlation Method (ACM) height estimation algorithm is presented. The algorithm uses Advanced Along Track Scanning Radiometer (AATSR) satellite data to detect volcanic ash plumes and to estimate the plume top height. The height estimate is based on the stereo-viewing capability of the AATSR instrument, which allows to determine the parallax between the satellite's nadir and 55◦ forward views, and thus the corresponding height. AATSR provides an advantage compared to other stereo-view satellite instruments: with AATSR it is possible to detect ash plumes using brightness temperature difference between thermal infrared (TIR) channels centered at 11 and 12 μm. The automatic ash detection makes the algorithm efficient in processing large quantities of data: the height estimate is calculated only for the ash-flagged pixels. Besides ash plumes, the algorithm can be applied to any elevated feature with sufficient contrast to the background, such as smoke and dust plumes and clouds. The ACM algorithm can be applied to the Sea and Land Surface Temperature Radiometer (SLSTR), scheduled for launch at the end of 2015.

  13. A novel ULA-based geometry for improving AOA estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shirvani-Moghaddam, Shahriar; Akbari, Farida

    2011-12-01

    Due to relatively simple implementation, Uniform Linear Array (ULA) is a popular geometry for array signal processing. Despite this advantage, it does not have a uniform performance in all directions and Angle of Arrival (AOA) estimation performance degrades considerably in the angles close to endfire. In this article, a new configuration is proposed which can solve this problem. Proposed Array (PA) configuration adds two elements to the ULA in top and bottom of the array axis. By extending signal model of the ULA to the new proposed ULA-based array, AOA estimation performance has been compared in terms of angular accuracy and resolution threshold through two well-known AOA estimation algorithms, MUSIC and MVDR. In both algorithms, Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of the detected angles descends as the input Signal to Noise Ratio (SNR) increases. Simulation results show that the proposed array geometry introduces uniform accurate performance and higher resolution in middle angles as well as border ones. The PA also presents less RMSE than the ULA in endfire directions. Therefore, the proposed array offers better performance for the border angles with almost the same array size and simplicity in both MUSIC and MVDR algorithms with respect to the conventional ULA. In addition, AOA estimation performance of the PA geometry is compared with two well-known 2D-array geometries: L-shape and V-shape, and acceptable results are obtained with equivalent or lower complexity.

  14. Yield estimation of sugarcane based on agrometeorological-spectral models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rudorff, Bernardo Friedrich Theodor; Batista, Getulio Teixeira

    1990-01-01

    This work has the objective to assess the performance of a yield estimation model for sugarcane (Succharum officinarum). The model uses orbital gathered spectral data along with yield estimated from an agrometeorological model. The test site includes the sugarcane plantations of the Barra Grande Plant located in Lencois Paulista municipality in Sao Paulo State. Production data of four crop years were analyzed. Yield data observed in the first crop year (1983/84) were regressed against spectral and agrometeorological data of that same year. This provided the model to predict the yield for the following crop year i.e., 1984/85. The model to predict the yield of subsequent years (up to 1987/88) were developed similarly, incorporating all previous years data. The yield estimations obtained from these models explained 69, 54, and 50 percent of the yield variation in the 1984/85, 1985/86, and 1986/87 crop years, respectively. The accuracy of yield estimations based on spectral data only (vegetation index model) and on agrometeorological data only (agrometeorological model) were also investigated.

  15. The regional abundance and size distribution of lakes and reservoirs in the United States and implication for estimates of global lake extent

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McDonald, Cory P.; Rover, Jennifer; Stets, Edward G.; Striegl, Robert G.

    2012-01-01

    We analyzed complete geospatial data for the 3.5 million lakes and reservoirs larger than 0.001 km2, with a combined surface area of 131,000 km2, in the contiguous United States (excluding the Laurentian Great Lakes) and identified their regional distribution characteristics. For Alaska, we also analyzed (1) incomplete data that suggest that the state contains 1–2.5 million lakes larger than 0.001 km2 covering over 50,000 km2 and (2) localized high-resolution (5 m) data that suggest that the number of very small water bodies (< 0.001 km2) may be comparable with the number of lakes > 0.001 km2 in some areas. The Pareto distribution cannot accurately describe the lake abundance-size relationship across the entire size spectrum, and extrapolation of this density function to small size classes has likely resulted in the overestimation of the number of small lakes in the world. While small water bodies dominate in terms of numbers, they are not numerous enough to dominate in terms of surface area, as has been previously suggested. Extending our results to the global scale suggests that there are on the order of 64 million water bodies larger than 0.001 km2 in the world, with a total surface area of approximately 3.8 million km2.

  16. Estimation of biological parameters of marine organisms using linear and nonlinear acoustic scattering model-based inversion methods.

    PubMed

    Chu, Dezhang; Lawson, Gareth L; Wiebe, Peter H

    2016-05-01

    The linear inversion commonly used in fisheries and zooplankton acoustics assumes a constant inversion kernel and ignores the uncertainties associated with the shape and behavior of the scattering targets, as well as other relevant animal parameters. Here, errors of the linear inversion due to uncertainty associated with the inversion kernel are quantified. A scattering model-based nonlinear inversion method is presented that takes into account the nonlinearity of the inverse problem and is able to estimate simultaneously animal abundance and the parameters associated with the scattering model inherent to the kernel. It uses sophisticated scattering models to estimate first, the abundance, and second, the relevant shape and behavioral parameters of the target organisms. Numerical simulations demonstrate that the abundance, size, and behavior (tilt angle) parameters of marine animals (fish or zooplankton) can be accurately inferred from the inversion by using multi-frequency acoustic data. The influence of the singularity and uncertainty in the inversion kernel on the inversion results can be mitigated by examining the singular values for linear inverse problems and employing a non-linear inversion involving a scattering model-based kernel.

  17. Stellar Oxygen Abundances

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    King, Jeremy

    1994-04-01

    . [1989, ARAA, 27, 279], persists despite the addition of more O data and may betray the occurrence of a hiatus in star formation between the end of halo formation and the beginning of star formation in the disk. It is noted that the slope of the [O/Fe] versus [Fe/H] relation for [Fe/H] >/= -1 depends on the statistical regression utilized. Hence, alleged "observed" [O/H] - age relations, which do not use truly observed O abundances (but, rather, adopt O abundances based on Fe abundances), should be regarded with caution. Systematic effects on O abundances derived from the 6300A [O I] and 7774A O I lines are considered next. While our Solar observations confirm the disagreement between the observed 7774A O I equivalent widths and LTE model calculations at low microns, we stress that Solar O abundance determinations made from flux spectra are in very good agreement with the meteoritic value. We find the 6300A [O I] equivalent width value appears to be uncertain for the Sun. Given this uncertainty, the inability of authors to reproduce each others' 6300A O abundances, and the results of recent quasi-two-stream calculations, we do not believe it can be readily claimed (as is usually done) that these abundances are more reliable than those derived from the 7774A O I triplet. In a sample of relatively metal-rich F and G dwarfs, we find no systematic difference between the 6300 and 7774A O abundances for Teff abundances are also determined for 8 open clusters or moving groups. A very clear relation between cluster age and O abundance is seen; this is in stark contrast to the lack of any relation between age and Fe abundance in the same clusters. Hence, despite possible a priori objections, O abundances may prove to be a superior chronometer (as others have suggested) in the study of Galactic chemical evolution. Somewhat surprisingly, our our [O/Fe] ratios appear to be larger for the

  18. Pilot-based parametric channel estimation algorithm for DCO-OFDM-based visual light communications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qian, Xuewen; Deng, Honggui; He, Hailang

    2017-10-01

    Due to wide modulation bandwidth in optical communication, multipath channels may be non-sparse and deteriorate communication performance heavily. Traditional compressive sensing-based channel estimation algorithm cannot be employed in this kind of situation. In this paper, we propose a practical parametric channel estimation algorithm for orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM)-based visual light communication (VLC) systems based on modified zero correlation code (ZCC) pair that has the impulse-like correlation property. Simulation results show that the proposed algorithm achieves better performances than existing least squares (LS)-based algorithm in both bit error ratio (BER) and frequency response estimation.

  19. Abundances of volatile-bearing phases in carbonaceous chondrites and cooling rates of meteorites based on cation ordering of orthopyroxenes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ganguly, Jibamitra

    1989-01-01

    Results of preliminary calculations of volatile abundances in carbonaceous chondrites are discussed. The method (Ganguly 1982) was refined for the calculation of cooling rate on the basis of cation ordering in orthopyroxenes, and it was applied to the derivation of cooling rates of some stony meteorites. Evaluation of cooling rate is important to the analysis of condensation, accretion, and post-accretionary metamorphic histories of meteorites. The method of orthopyroxene speedometry is widely applicable to meteorites and would be very useful in the understanding of the evolutionary histories of carbonaceous chondrites, especially since the conventional metallographic and fission track methods yield widely different results in many cases. Abstracts are given which summarize the major conclusions of the volatile abundance and cooling rate calculations.

  20. Population-based absolute risk estimation with survey data

    PubMed Central

    Kovalchik, Stephanie A.; Pfeiffer, Ruth M.

    2013-01-01

    Absolute risk is the probability that a cause-specific event occurs in a given time interval in the presence of competing events. We present methods to estimate population-based absolute risk from a complex survey cohort that can accommodate multiple exposure-specific competing risks. The hazard function for each event type consists of an individualized relative risk multiplied by a baseline hazard function, which is modeled nonparametrically or parametrically with a piecewise exponential model. An influence method is used to derive a Taylor-linearized variance estimate for the absolute risk estimates. We introduce novel measures of the cause-specific influences that can guide modeling choices for the competing event components of the model. To illustrate our methodology, we build and validate cause-specific absolute risk models for cardiovascular and cancer deaths using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Our applications demonstrate the usefulness of survey-based risk prediction models for predicting health outcomes and quantifying the potential impact of disease prevention programs at the population level. PMID:23686614

  1. Improved Goldstein Interferogram Filter Based on Local Fringe Frequency Estimation.

    PubMed

    Feng, Qingqing; Xu, Huaping; Wu, Zhefeng; You, Yanan; Liu, Wei; Ge, Shiqi

    2016-11-23

    The quality of an interferogram, which is limited by various phase noise, will greatly affect the further processes of InSAR, such as phase unwrapping. Interferometric SAR (InSAR) geophysical measurements', such as height or displacement, phase filtering is therefore an essential step. In this work, an improved Goldstein interferogram filter is proposed to suppress the phase noise while preserving the fringe edges. First, the proposed adaptive filter step, performed before frequency estimation, is employed to improve the estimation accuracy. Subsequently, to preserve the fringe characteristics, the estimated fringe frequency in each fixed filtering patch is removed from the original noisy phase. Then, the residual phase is smoothed based on the modified Goldstein filter with its parameter alpha dependent on both the coherence map and the residual phase frequency. Finally, the filtered residual phase and the removed fringe frequency are combined to generate the filtered interferogram, with the loss of signal minimized while reducing the noise level. The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by experimental results based on both simulated and real data.

  2. Improved Goldstein Interferogram Filter Based on Local Fringe Frequency Estimation

    PubMed Central

    Feng, Qingqing; Xu, Huaping; Wu, Zhefeng; You, Yanan; Liu, Wei; Ge, Shiqi

    2016-01-01

    The quality of an interferogram, which is limited by various phase noise, will greatly affect the further processes of InSAR, such as phase unwrapping. Interferometric SAR (InSAR) geophysical measurements’, such as height or displacement, phase filtering is therefore an essential step. In this work, an improved Goldstein interferogram filter is proposed to suppress the phase noise while preserving the fringe edges. First, the proposed adaptive filter step, performed before frequency estimation, is employed to improve the estimation accuracy. Subsequently, to preserve the fringe characteristics, the estimated fringe frequency in each fixed filtering patch is removed from the original noisy phase. Then, the residual phase is smoothed based on the modified Goldstein filter with its parameter alpha dependent on both the coherence map and the residual phase frequency. Finally, the filtered residual phase and the removed fringe frequency are combined to generate the filtered interferogram, with the loss of signal minimized while reducing the noise level. The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by experimental results based on both simulated and real data. PMID:27886081

  3. METAPHOR: Probability density estimation for machine learning based photometric redshifts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Amaro, V.; Cavuoti, S.; Brescia, M.; Vellucci, C.; Tortora, C.; Longo, G.

    2017-06-01

    We present METAPHOR (Machine-learning Estimation Tool for Accurate PHOtometric Redshifts), a method able to provide a reliable PDF for photometric galaxy redshifts estimated through empirical techniques. METAPHOR is a modular workflow, mainly based on the MLPQNA neural network as internal engine to derive photometric galaxy redshifts, but giving the possibility to easily replace MLPQNA with any other method to predict photo-z's and their PDF. We present here the results about a validation test of the workflow on the galaxies from SDSS-DR9, showing also the universality of the method by replacing MLPQNA with KNN and Random Forest models. The validation test include also a comparison with the PDF's derived from a traditional SED template fitting method (Le Phare).

  4. Intensity-Based Registration for Lung Motion Estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cao, Kunlin; Ding, Kai; Amelon, Ryan E.; Du, Kaifang; Reinhardt, Joseph M.; Raghavan, Madhavan L.; Christensen, Gary E.

    Image registration plays an important role within pulmonary image analysis. The task of registration is to find the spatial mapping that brings two images into alignment. Registration algorithms designed for matching 4D lung scans or two 3D scans acquired at different inflation levels can catch the temporal changes in position and shape of the region of interest. Accurate registration is critical to post-analysis of lung mechanics and motion estimation. In this chapter, we discuss lung-specific adaptations of intensity-based registration methods for 3D/4D lung images and review approaches for assessing registration accuracy. Then we introduce methods for estimating tissue motion and studying lung mechanics. Finally, we discuss methods for assessing and quantifying specific volume change, specific ventilation, strain/ stretch information and lobar sliding.

  5. Underwater image enhancement through depth estimation based on random forest

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tai, Shen-Chuan; Tsai, Ting-Chou; Huang, Jyun-Han

    2017-11-01

    Light absorption and scattering in underwater environments can result in low-contrast images with a distinct color cast. This paper proposes a systematic framework for the enhancement of underwater images. Light transmission is estimated using the random forest algorithm. RGB values, luminance, color difference, blurriness, and the dark channel are treated as features in training and estimation. Transmission is calculated using an ensemble machine learning algorithm to deal with a variety of conditions encountered in underwater environments. A color compensation and contrast enhancement algorithm based on depth information was also developed with the aim of improving the visual quality of underwater images. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed scheme outperforms existing methods with regard to subjective visual quality as well as objective measurements.

  6. Gradient-based stochastic estimation of the density matrix

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Zhentao; Chern, Gia-Wei; Batista, Cristian D.; Barros, Kipton

    2018-03-01

    Fast estimation of the single-particle density matrix is key to many applications in quantum chemistry and condensed matter physics. The best numerical methods leverage the fact that the density matrix elements f(H)ij decay rapidly with distance rij between orbitals. This decay is usually exponential. However, for the special case of metals at zero temperature, algebraic decay of the density matrix appears and poses a significant numerical challenge. We introduce a gradient-based probing method to estimate all local density matrix elements at a computational cost that scales linearly with system size. For zero-temperature metals, the stochastic error scales like S-(d+2)/2d, where d is the dimension and S is a prefactor to the computational cost. The convergence becomes exponential if the system is at finite temperature or is insulating.

  7. Local surface curvature analysis based on reflection estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lu, Qinglin; Laligant, Olivier; Fauvet, Eric; Zakharova, Anastasia

    2015-07-01

    In this paper, we propose a novel reflection based method to estimate the local orientation of a specular surface. For a calibrated scene with a fixed light band, the band is reflected by the surface to the image plane of a camera. Then the local geometry between the surface and reflected band is estimated. Firstly, in order to find the relationship relying the object position, the object surface orientation and the band reflection, we study the fundamental theory of the geometry between a specular mirror surface and a band source. Then we extend our approach to the spherical surface with arbitrary curvature. Experiments are conducted with mirror surface and spherical surface. Results show that our method is able to obtain the local surface orientation merely by measuring the displacement and the form of the reflection.

  8. Estimating dengue vector abundance in the wet and dry season: implications for targeted vector control in urban and peri-urban Asia

    PubMed Central

    Wai, Khin Thet; Arunachalam, Natarajan; Tana, Susilowati; Espino, Fe; Kittayapong, Pattamaporn; Abeyewickreme, W; Hapangama, Dilini; Tyagi, Brij Kishore; Htun, Pe Than; Koyadun, Surachart; Kroeger, Axel; Sommerfeld, Johannes; Petzold, Max

    2012-01-01

    Background Research has shown that the classical Stegomyia indices (or “larval indices”) of the dengue vector Aedes aegypti reflect the absence or presence of the vector but do not provide accurate measures of adult mosquito density. In contrast, pupal indices as collected in pupal productivity surveys are a much better proxy indicator for adult vector abundance. However, it is unknown when it is most optimal to conduct pupal productivity surveys, in the wet or in the dry season or in both, to inform control services about the most productive water container types and if this pattern varies among different ecological settings. Methods A multi-country study in randomly selected twelve to twenty urban and peri-urban neighborhoods (“clusters”) of six Asian countries, in which all water holding containers were examined for larvae and pupae of Aedes aegypti during the dry season and the wet season and their productivity was characterized by water container types. In addition, meteorological data and information on reported dengue cases were collected. Findings The study reconfirmed the association between rainfall and dengue cases (“dengue season”) and underlined the importance of determining through pupal productivity surveys the “most productive containers types”, responsible for the majority (>70%) of adult dengue vectors. The variety of productive container types was greater during the wet than during the dry season, but included practically all container types productive in the dry season. Container types producing pupae were usually different from those infested by larvae indicating that containers with larval infestations do not necessarily foster pupal development and thus the production of adult Aedes mosquitoes. Conclusion Pupal productivity surveys conducted during the wet season will identify almost all of the most productive container types for both the dry and wet seasons and will therefore facilitate cost-effective targeted interventions

  9. Drone based estimation of actual evapotranspiration over different forest types

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marzahn, Philip; Gampe, David; Castro, Saulo; Vega-Araya, Mauricio; Sanchez-Azofeifa, Arturo; Ludwig, Ralf

    2017-04-01

    Actual evapotranspiration (Eta) plays an important role in surface-atmosphere interactions. Traditionally, Eta is measured by means of lysimeters, eddy-covariance systems or fiber optics, providing estimates which are spatially restricted to a footprint from a few square meters up to several hectares . In the past, several methods have been developed to derive Eta by means of multi-spectral remote sensing data using thermal and VIS/NIR satellite imagery of the land surface. As such approaches do have their justification on coarser scales, they do not provide Eta information on the fine resolution plant level over large areas which is mandatory for the detection of water stress or tree mortality. In this study, we present a comparison of a drone based assessment of Eta with eddy-covariance measurements over two different forest types - a deciduous forest in Alberta, Canada and a tropical dry forest in Costa Rica. Drone based estimates of Eta were calculated applying the Triangle-Method proposed by Jiang and Islam (1999). The Triangle-Method estimates actual evapotranspiration (Eta) by means of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and land surface temperature (LST) provided by two camera systems (MicaSense RedEdge, FLIR TAU2 640) flown simultaneously on an octocopter. . Results indicate a high transferability of the original approach from Jiang and Islam (1999) developed for coarse to medium resolution satellite imagery tothe high resolution drone data, leading to a deviation in Eta estimates of 10% compared to the eddy-covariance measurements. In addition, the spatial footprint of the eddy-covariance measurement can be detected with this approach, by showing the spatial heterogeneities of Eta due to the spatial distribution of different trees and understory vegetation.

  10. A History-based Estimation for LHCb job requirements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rauschmayr, Nathalie

    2015-12-01

    The main goal of a Workload Management System (WMS) is to find and allocate resources for the given tasks. The more and better job information the WMS receives, the easier will be to accomplish its task, which directly translates into higher utilization of resources. Traditionally, the information associated with each job, like expected runtime, is defined beforehand by the Production Manager in best case and fixed arbitrary values by default. In the case of LHCb's Workload Management System no mechanisms are provided which automate the estimation of job requirements. As a result, much more CPU time is normally requested than actually needed. Particularly, in the context of multicore jobs this presents a major problem, since single- and multicore jobs shall share the same resources. Consequently, grid sites need to rely on estimations given by the VOs in order to not decrease the utilization of their worker nodes when making multicore job slots available. The main reason for going to multicore jobs is the reduction of the overall memory footprint. Therefore, it also needs to be studied how memory consumption of jobs can be estimated. A detailed workload analysis of past LHCb jobs is presented. It includes a study of job features and their correlation with runtime and memory consumption. Following the features, a supervised learning algorithm is developed based on a history based prediction. The aim is to learn over time how jobs’ runtime and memory evolve influenced due to changes in experiment conditions and software versions. It will be shown that estimation can be notably improved if experiment conditions are taken into account.

  11. Estimation for sparse vegetation information in desertification region based on Tiangong-1 hyperspectral image.

    PubMed

    Wu, Jun-Jun; Gao, Zhi-Hai; Li, Zeng-Yuan; Wang, Hong-Yan; Pang, Yong; Sun, Bin; Li, Chang-Long; Li, Xu-Zhi; Zhang, Jiu-Xing

    2014-03-01

    In order to estimate the sparse vegetation information accurately in desertification region, taking southeast of Sunite Right Banner, Inner Mongolia, as the test site and Tiangong-1 hyperspectral image as the main data, sparse vegetation coverage and biomass were retrieved based on normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and soil adjusted vegetation index (SAVI), combined with the field investigation data. Then the advantages and disadvantages between them were compared. Firstly, the correlation between vegetation indexes and vegetation coverage under different bands combination was analyzed, as well as the biomass. Secondly, the best bands combination was determined when the maximum correlation coefficient turned up between vegetation indexes (VI) and vegetation parameters. It showed that the maximum correlation coefficient between vegetation parameters and NDVI could reach as high as 0.7, while that of SAVI could nearly reach 0.8. The center wavelength of red band in the best bands combination for NDVI was 630nm, and that of the near infrared (NIR) band was 910 nm. Whereas, when the center wavelength was 620 and 920 nm respectively, they were the best combination for SAVI. Finally, the linear regression models were established to retrieve vegetation coverage and biomass based on Tiangong-1 VIs. R2 of all models was more than 0.5, while that of the model based on SAVI was higher than that based on NDVI, especially, the R2 of vegetation coverage retrieve model based on SAVI was as high as 0.59. By intersection validation, the standard errors RMSE based on SAVI models were lower than that of the model based on NDVI. The results showed that the abundant spectral information of Tiangong-1 hyperspectral image can reflect the actual vegetaion condition effectively, and SAVI can estimate the sparse vegetation information more accurately than NDVI in desertification region.

  12. Quantified abundance of magnetofossils at the Paleocene-Eocene boundary from synchrotron-based transmission X-ray microscopy.

    PubMed

    Wang, Huapei; Wang, Jun; Chen-Wiegart, Yu-Chen Karen; Kent, Dennis V

    2015-10-13

    The Paleocene-Eocene boundary (∼55.8 million years ago) is marked by an abrupt negative carbon isotope excursion (CIE) that coincides with an oxygen isotope decrease interpreted as the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum. Biogenic magnetite (Fe3O4) in the form of giant (micron-sized) spearhead-like and spindle-like magnetofossils, as well as nano-sized magnetotactic bacteria magnetosome chains, have been reported in clay-rich sediments in the New Jersey Atlantic Coastal Plain and were thought to account for the distinctive single-domain magnetic properties of these sediments. Uncalibrated strong field magnet extraction techniques have been typically used to provide material for scanning and transmission electron microscopic imaging of these magnetic particles, whose concentration in the natural sediment is thus difficult to quantify. In this study, we use a recently developed ultrahigh-resolution, synchrotron-based, full-field transmission X-ray microscope to study the iron-rich minerals within the clay sediment in their bulk state. We are able to estimate the total magnetization concentration of the giant biogenic magnetofossils to be only ∼10% of whole sediment. Along with previous rock magnetic studies on the CIE clay, we suggest that most of the magnetite in the clay occurs as isolated, near-equidimensional nanoparticles, a suggestion that points to a nonbiogenic origin, such as comet impact plume condensates in what may be very rapidly deposited CIE clays.

  13. Quantified abundance of magnetofossils at the Paleocene–Eocene boundary from synchrotron-based transmission X-ray microscopy

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Huapei; Wang, Jun; Chen-Wiegart, Yu-chen Karen; Kent, Dennis V.

    2015-01-01

    The Paleocene–Eocene boundary (∼55.8 million years ago) is marked by an abrupt negative carbon isotope excursion (CIE) that coincides with an oxygen isotope decrease interpreted as the Paleocene–Eocene thermal maximum. Biogenic magnetite (Fe3O4) in the form of giant (micron-sized) spearhead-like and spindle-like magnetofossils, as well as nano-sized magnetotactic bacteria magnetosome chains, have been reported in clay-rich sediments in the New Jersey Atlantic Coastal Plain and were thought to account for the distinctive single-domain magnetic properties of these sediments. Uncalibrated strong field magnet extraction techniques have been typically used to provide material for scanning and transmission electron microscopic imaging of these magnetic particles, whose concentration in the natural sediment is thus difficult to quantify. In this study, we use a recently developed ultrahigh-resolution, synchrotron-based, full-field transmission X-ray microscope to study the iron-rich minerals within the clay sediment in their bulk state. We are able to estimate the total magnetization concentration of the giant biogenic magnetofossils to be only ∼10% of whole sediment. Along with previous rock magnetic studies on the CIE clay, we suggest that most of the magnetite in the clay occurs as isolated, near-equidimensional nanoparticles, a suggestion that points to a nonbiogenic origin, such as comet impact plume condensates in what may be very rapidly deposited CIE clays. PMID:26420869

  14. GNSS Spoofing Detection and Mitigation Based on Maximum Likelihood Estimation.

    PubMed

    Wang, Fei; Li, Hong; Lu, Mingquan

    2017-06-30

    Spoofing attacks are threatening the global navigation satellite system (GNSS). The maximum likelihood estimation (MLE)-based positioning technique is a direct positioning method originally developed for multipath rejection and weak signal processing. We find this method also has a potential ability for GNSS anti-spoofing since a spoofing attack that misleads the positioning and timing result will cause distortion to the MLE cost function. Based on the method, an estimation-cancellation approach is presented to detect spoofing attacks and recover the navigation solution. A statistic is derived for spoofing detection with the principle of the generalized likelihood ratio test (GLRT). Then, the MLE cost function is decomposed to further validate whether the navigation solution obtained by MLE-based positioning is formed by consistent signals. Both formulae and simulations are provided to evaluate the anti-spoofing performance. Experiments with recordings in real GNSS spoofing scenarios are also performed to validate the practicability of the approach. Results show that the method works even when the code phase differences between the spoofing and authentic signals are much less than one code chip, which can improve the availability of GNSS service greatly under spoofing attacks.

  15. GNSS Spoofing Detection and Mitigation Based on Maximum Likelihood Estimation

    PubMed Central

    Li, Hong; Lu, Mingquan

    2017-01-01

    Spoofing attacks are threatening the global navigation satellite system (GNSS). The maximum likelihood estimation (MLE)-based positioning technique is a direct positioning method originally developed for multipath rejection and weak signal processing. We find this method also has a potential ability for GNSS anti-spoofing since a spoofing attack that misleads the positioning and timing result will cause distortion to the MLE cost function. Based on the method, an estimation-cancellation approach is presented to detect spoofing attacks and recover the navigation solution. A statistic is derived for spoofing detection with the principle of the generalized likelihood ratio test (GLRT). Then, the MLE cost function is decomposed to further validate whether the navigation solution obtained by MLE-based positioning is formed by consistent signals. Both formulae and simulations are provided to evaluate the anti-spoofing performance. Experiments with recordings in real GNSS spoofing scenarios are also performed to validate the practicability of the approach. Results show that the method works even when the code phase differences between the spoofing and authentic signals are much less than one code chip, which can improve the availability of GNSS service greatly under spoofing attacks. PMID:28665318

  16. Infrared spectroscopy, vibrational predissociation dynamics and stability of the hydrogen trioxy (HOOO) radical and estimation of its abundance in the atmosphere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Derro, Erika L.

    .31 kcal/mol. The atmospheric abundance of HOOO is assessed using a statistical mechanical approach employing the experimentally determined binding energy and spectroscopic properties, which suggests that HOOO may be a significant sink for atmospheric OH radicals, specifically under the low temperature and moderate pressure conditions of the tropopause.

  17. An automatic iris occlusion estimation method based on high-dimensional density estimation.

    PubMed

    Li, Yung-Hui; Savvides, Marios

    2013-04-01

    Iris masks play an important role in iris recognition. They indicate which part of the iris texture map is useful and which part is occluded or contaminated by noisy image artifacts such as eyelashes, eyelids, eyeglasses frames, and specular reflections. The accuracy of the iris mask is extremely important. The performance of the iris recognition system will decrease dramatically when the iris mask is inaccurate, even when the best recognition algorithm is used. Traditionally, people used the rule-based algorithms to estimate iris masks from iris images. However, the accuracy of the iris masks generated this way is questionable. In this work, we propose to use Figueiredo and Jain's Gaussian Mixture Models (FJ-GMMs) to model the underlying probabilistic distributions of both valid and invalid regions on iris images. We also explored possible features and found that Gabor Filter Bank (GFB) provides the most discriminative information for our goal. Finally, we applied Simulated Annealing (SA) technique to optimize the parameters of GFB in order to achieve the best recognition rate. Experimental results show that the masks generated by the proposed algorithm increase the iris recognition rate on both ICE2 and UBIRIS dataset, verifying the effectiveness and importance of our proposed method for iris occlusion estimation.

  18. Safe Maneuvering Envelope Estimation Based on a Physical Approach

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lombaerts, Thomas J. J.; Schuet, Stefan R.; Wheeler, Kevin R.; Acosta, Diana; Kaneshige, John T.

    2013-01-01

    This paper discusses a computationally efficient algorithm for estimating the safe maneuvering envelope of damaged aircraft. The algorithm performs a robust reachability analysis through an optimal control formulation while making use of time scale separation and taking into account uncertainties in the aerodynamic derivatives. This approach differs from others since it is physically inspired. This more transparent approach allows interpreting data in each step, and it is assumed that these physical models based upon flight dynamics theory will therefore facilitate certification for future real life applications.

  19. Precision phase estimation based on weak-value amplification

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qiu, Xiaodong; Xie, Linguo; Liu, Xiong; Luo, Lan; Li, Zhaoxue; Zhang, Zhiyou; Du, Jinglei

    2017-02-01

    In this letter, we propose a precision method for phase estimation based on the weak-value amplification (WVA) technique using a monochromatic light source. The anomalous WVA significantly suppresses the technical noise with respect to the intensity difference signal induced by the phase delay when the post-selection procedure comes into play. The phase measured precision of this method is proportional to the weak-value of a polarization operator in the experimental range. Our results compete well with the wide spectrum light phase weak measurements and outperform the standard homodyne phase detection technique.

  20. Supersensitive ancilla-based adaptive quantum phase estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Larson, Walker; Saleh, Bahaa E. A.

    2017-10-01

    The supersensitivity attained in quantum phase estimation is known to be compromised in the presence of decoherence. This is particularly patent at blind spots—phase values at which sensitivity is totally lost. One remedy is to use a precisely known reference phase to shift the operation point to a less vulnerable phase value. Since this is not always feasible, we present here an alternative approach based on combining the probe with an ancillary degree of freedom containing adjustable parameters to create an entangled quantum state of higher dimension. We validate this concept by simulating a configuration of a Mach-Zehnder interferometer with a two-photon probe and a polarization ancilla of adjustable parameters, entangled at a polarizing beam splitter. At the interferometer output, the photons are measured after an adjustable unitary transformation in the polarization subspace. Through calculation of the Fisher information and simulation of an estimation procedure, we show that optimizing the adjustable polarization parameters using an adaptive measurement process provides globally supersensitive unbiased phase estimates for a range of decoherence levels, without prior information or a reference phase.

  1. A Contextual Comparison of Native Ice Abundances in Comet C/2013 US10 (Catalina) based on Infrared Spectroscopy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    DiSanti, Michael A.; Gibb, Erika L.; Roth, Nathanial; Bonev, Boncho P.; Keane, Jacqueline; Meech, Karen Jean; Villanueva, Geronimo Luis; Paganini, Lucas; Mumma, Michael J.

    2016-10-01

    The primitive nature of comets makes them the best available carriers of information pertaining to conditions in the early solar system. High-resolution spectrometers operating at IR wavelengths (~ 1 - 5 µm) permit quantifying molecular species (aka "parent volatiles") released into the coma upon sublimation of ices contained in the cometary nucleus (i.e., native ices). Over the past 20 years we used first CSHELL at the IRTF, then NIRSPEC at Keck and CRIRES at the VLT, amassing production rates and abundance ratios in 30-plus comets.We present a summary of molecular abundances in long period Comet C/2013 US10 (Catalina), which passed perihelion on UT 2015 November 15.7 at heliocentric distance Rh = 0.822 AU. We used CSHELL on UT 2015 November 23 (Rh = 0.84 AU), December 15 - 17 (Rh = 1.0 AU) and 2016 February 28 (Rh = 1.95 AU), and NIRSPEC on 2016 January 24 (Rh = 1.49 AU). We targeted H2O, CO, H2CO, CH3OH, OCS, HCN, NH3, CH4, C2H2, and C2H6, and obtained production rates or stringent upper limits for all of these. This allowed testing for potential changes in relative abundances as a function of Rh. Such IR measurements spanning a range in Rh are still rare, but are very important for testing possible heterogeneous nucleus composition and/or heliocentric dependence of abundances, for example through release from grains heated in the coma. Our measurements will be inter-compared, and also placed in the context of our current (and continually evolving) compositional taxonomy of comets.We gratefully acknowledge support from the NASA Solar System Observations/Planetary Astronomy Program (SSO15-0028 to MAD, PAST11-0045 to MJM), Planetary Atmospheres Program (NNX12AG60G to BPB), NASA Astrobiology Institute (13-13NAI7-0032 to MJM, NN09DA77A to KJM), and NSF Astronomy and Astrophysics Research Grants (AST-1211362 to BPB and ELG, and AST-1413736 to KJM). The IRTF is operated by the University of Hawaii under contract NNH14CK55B with the National Aeronautics and Space

  2. REDRAW-Based Evapotranspiration Estimation in Chongli, North China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Z.; Wang, Z.

    2017-12-01

    Evapotranspiration (ET) is the key component of hydrological cycle and spatial estimates of ET are important elements of atmospheric circulation and hydrologic models. Quantifying the ET over large region is significant for water resources planning, hydrologic water balances, water rights management, and water division. In this study, Evapotranspiration (ET) was estimated using REDRAW model in the Chongli on 2014. REDRAW is a satellite-based balance algorithm with reference dry and wet limits model developed to estimate ET. Remote sensing data obtained from MODIS and meteorological data from China Meteorological Data Sharing Service System were used in ET model. In order to analyze the distribution and time variation of ET over the study region, daily, monthly and yearly ET were calculated for the study area, and ET of different land cover types were calculated. In terms of the monthly ET, the figure was low in winter and high in other seasons, and reaches the maximum value in August, showing a high monthly difference. The ET value of water body was the highest and that of barren or sparse vegetation were the lowest, which accorded with local actual condition. Evaluating spatial temporal distribution of actual ET could assist to understand the water consumption regularity in region and figure out the effect from different land cover, which helped to establish links between land use, water allocation, and water use planning in study region. Due to the groundwater recession in north China, the evaluation of regional total water resources become increasingly essential, and the result of this study can be used to plan the water use. As the Chongli will prepare the ski slopes for Winter Olympics on 2022, accuracy estimation of actual ET can efficiently resolve water conflict and relieve water scarcity.

  3. Directional Canopy Emissivity Estimation Based on Spectral Invariants

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guo, M.; Cao, B.; Ren, H.; Yongming, D.; Peng, J.; Fan, W.

    2017-12-01

    Land surface emissivity is a crucial parameter for estimating land surface temperature from remote sensing data and also plays an important role in the physical process of surface energy and water balance from local to global scales. To our knowledge, the emissivity varies with surface type and cover. As for the vegetation, its canopy emissivity is dependent on vegetation types, viewing zenith angle and structure that changes in different growing stages. Lots of previous studies have focused on the emissivity model, but few of them are analytic and suited to different canopy structures. In this paper, a new physical analytic model is proposed to estimate the directional emissivity of homogenous vegetation canopy based on spectral invariants. The initial model counts the directional absorption in six parts: the direct absorption of the canopy and the soil, the absorption of the canopy and soil after a single scattering and after multiple scattering within the canopy-soil system. In order to analytically estimate the emissivity, the pathways of photons absorbed in the canopy-soil system are traced using the re-collision probability in Fig.1. After sensitive analysis on the above six absorptions, the initial complicated model was further simplified as a fixed mathematic expression to estimate the directional emissivity for vegetation canopy. The model was compared with the 4SAIL model, FRA97 model, FRA02 model and DART model in Fig.2, and the results showed that the FRA02 model is significantly underestimated while the FRA97 model is a little underestimated, on basis of the new model. On the contrary, the emissivity difference between the new model with the 4SAIL model and DART model was found to be less than 0.002. In general, since the new model has the advantages of mathematic expression with accurate results and clear physical meaning, the model is promising to be extended to simulate the directional emissivity for the discrete canopy in further study.

  4. Monitoring waterbird abundance in wetlands: The importance of controlling results for variation in water depth

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bolduc, F.; Afton, A.D.

    2008-01-01

    Wetland use by waterbirds is highly dependent on water depth, and depth requirements generally vary among species. Furthermore, water depth within wetlands often varies greatly over time due to unpredictable hydrological events, making comparisons of waterbird abundance among wetlands difficult as effects of habitat variables and water depth are confounded. Species-specific relationships between bird abundance and water depth necessarily are non-linear; thus, we developed a methodology to correct waterbird abundance for variation in water depth, based on the non-parametric regression of these two variables. Accordingly, we used the difference between observed and predicted abundances from non-parametric regression (analogous to parametric residuals) as an estimate of bird abundance at equivalent water depths. We scaled this difference to levels of observed and predicted abundances using the formula: ((observed - predicted abundance)/(observed + predicted abundance)) ?? 100. This estimate also corresponds to the observed:predicted abundance ratio, which allows easy interpretation of results. We illustrated this methodology using two hypothetical species that differed in water depth and wetland preferences. Comparisons of wetlands, using both observed and relative corrected abundances, indicated that relative corrected abundance adequately separates the effect of water depth from the effect of wetlands. ?? 2008 Elsevier B.V.

  5. Possibilities and limitations of 2DE-based analyses for identifying low-abundant tumor markers in human serum and plasma.

    PubMed

    Strohkamp, Sarah; Gemoll, Timo; Habermann, Jens K

    2016-10-01

    Hallmarks of malignancy can be monitored by protein signatures in serum or plasma. The current challenge in cancer research is the identification of clinically reliable protein biomarkers for diagnostic and prognostic purposes. A widely used and powerful technique to screen tumor markers is two-dimensional gel electrophoresis (2DE). This review provides an overview of 2DE functionality with its advantages and drawbacks as well as a current literature overview of gel-based cancer biomarker discovery in serum/plasma. In this context, 11 of the 12 studies reviewed here identified at least one of eight classical serum or high-abundant proteins (HAPs). Expression levels of those proteins are regulated by a vast variety of different physiological, metabolic and immunological stimuli leading to a questionable application as cancer-specific markers. Misinterpretation of HAPs as tumor markers might be caused by either the experimental setup or the technical and analytical potential in gel-based serum or plasma proteomics to detect low-abundant proteins, or a combination thereof. Additionally, based on currently available technology we propose an optimized experimental workflow to allow detecting cancer-specific protein markers of low abundance in future 2DE studies. © 2016 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  6. Estimating cetacean carrying capacity based on spacing behaviour.

    PubMed

    Braithwaite, Janelle E; Meeuwig, Jessica J; Jenner, K Curt S

    2012-01-01

    Conservation of large ocean wildlife requires an understanding of how they use space. In Western Australia, the humpback whale (Megaptera novaeangliae) population is growing at a minimum rate of 10% per year. An important consideration for conservation based management in space-limited environments, such as coastal resting areas, is the potential expansion in area use by humpback whales if the carrying capacity of existing areas is exceeded. Here we determined the theoretical carrying capacity of a known humpback resting area based on the spacing behaviour of pods, where a resting area is defined as a sheltered embayment along the coast. Two separate approaches were taken to estimate this distance. The first used the median nearest neighbour distance between pods in relatively dense areas, giving a spacing distance of 2.16 km (± 0.94). The second estimated the spacing distance as the radius at which 50% of the population included no other pods, and was calculated as 1.93 km (range: 1.62-2.50 km). Using these values, the maximum number of pods able to fit into the resting area was 698 and 872 pods, respectively. Given an average observed pod size of 1.7 whales, this equates to a carrying capacity estimate of between 1187 and 1482 whales at any given point in time. This study demonstrates that whale pods do maintain a distance from each other, which may determine the number of animals that can occupy aggregation areas where space is limited. This requirement for space has implications when considering boundaries for protected areas or competition for space with the fishing and resources sectors.

  7. Estimation of fire emissions from satellite-based measurements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ichoku, C. M.; Kaufman, Y. J.

    2004-12-01

    Biomass burning is a worldwide phenomenon affecting many vegetated parts of the globe regularly. Fires emit large quantities of aerosol and trace gases into the atmosphere, thus influencing the atmospheric chemistry and climate. Traditional methods of fire emissions estimation achieved only limited success, because they were based on peripheral information such as rainfall patterns, vegetation types and changes, agricultural practices, and surface ozone concentrations. During the last several years, rapid developments in satellite remote sensing has allowed more direct estimation of smoke emissions using remotely-sensed fire data. However, current methods use fire pixel counts or burned areas, thereby depending on the accuracy of independent estimations of the biomass fuel loadings, combustion efficiency, and emission factors. With the enhanced radiometric range of its 4-micron fire channel, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor, which flies aboard both of the Earth Observing System (EOS) Terra and Aqua Satellites, is able to measure the rate of release of fire radiative energy (FRE) in MJ/s (something that older sensors could not do). MODIS also measures aerosol distribution. Taking advantage of these new resources, we have developed a procedure combining MODIS fire and aerosol products to derive FRE-based smoke emission coefficients (Ce in kg/MJ) for different regions of the globe. These coefficients are simply used to multiply FRE from MODIS to derive the emitted smoke aerosol mass. Results from this novel methodology are very encouraging. For instance, it was found that the smoke total particulate mass emission coefficient for the Brazilian Cerrado ecosystem (approximately 0.022 kg/MJ) is about twice the value for North America or Australia, but about 50 percent lower than the value for Zambia in southern Africa.

  8. Estimation of Fire Emissions from Satellite-Based Measurements

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ichoku, Charles; Kaufman, Yoram J.

    2004-01-01

    Biomass burning is a worldwide phenomenon affecting many vegetated parts of the globe regularly. Fires emit large quantities of aerosol and trace gases into the atmosphere, thus influencing the atmospheric chemistry and climate. Traditional methods of fire emissions estimation achieved only limited success, because they were based on peripheral information such as rainfall patterns, vegetation types and changes, agricultural practices, and surface ozone concentrations. During the last several years, rapid developments in satellite remote sensing has allowed more direct estimation of smoke emissions using remotely-sensed fire data. However, current methods use fire pixel counts or burned areas, thereby depending on the accuracy of independent estimations of the biomass fuel loadings, combustion efficiency, and emission factors. With the enhanced radiometric range of its 4-micron fire channel, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor, which flies aboard both of the Earth Observing System EOS) Terra and Aqua Satellites, is able to measure the rate of release of fire radiative energy (FRE) in MJ/s (something that older sensors could not do). MODIS also measures aerosol distribution. Taking advantage of these new resources, we have developed a procedure combining MODIS fire and aerosol products to derive FRE-based smoke emission coefficients (C(e), in kg/MJ) for different regions of the globe. These coefficients are simply used to multiply FRE from MODIS to derive the emitted smoke aerosol mass. Results from this novel methodology are very encouraging. For instance, it was found that the smoke total particulate mass emission coefficient for the Brazilian Cerrado ecosystem (approximately 0.022 kg/MJ) is about twice the value for North America, Western Europe, or Australia, but about 50% lower than the value for southern Africa.

  9. Family-oriented cardiac risk estimator: a Java web-based applet.

    PubMed

    Crouch, Michael A; Jadhav, Ashwin

    2003-01-01

    We developed a Java applet that calculates four different estimates of a person's 10-year risk for heart attack: (1) Estimate based on Framingham equation (2) Framingham equation estimate modified by C-reactive protein (CRP) level (3) Framingham estimate modified by family history of heart disease in parents or siblings (4) Framingham estimate modified by both CRP and family heart disease history. This web-based, family-oriented cardiac risk estimator uniquely considers family history and CRP while estimating risk.

  10. The elemental abundances (with uncertainties) of the most Earth-like planet

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Haiyang S.; Lineweaver, Charles H.; Ireland, Trevor R.

    2018-01-01

    To first order, the Earth as well as other rocky planets in the Solar System and rocky exoplanets orbiting other stars, are refractory pieces of the stellar nebula out of which they formed. To estimate the chemical composition of rocky exoplanets based on their stellar hosts' elemental abundances, we need a better understanding of the devolatilization that produced the Earth. To quantify the chemical relationships between the Earth, the Sun and other bodies in the Solar System, the elemental abundances of the bulk Earth are required. The key to comparing Earth's composition with those of other objects is to have a determination of the bulk composition with an appropriate estimate of uncertainties. Here we present concordance estimates (with uncertainties) of the elemental abundances of the bulk Earth, which can be used in such studies. First we compile, combine and renormalize a large set of heterogeneous literature values of the primitive mantle (PM) and of the core. We then integrate standard radial density profiles of the Earth and renormalize them to the current best estimate for the mass of the Earth. Using estimates of the uncertainties in i) the density profiles, ii) the core-mantle boundary and iii) the inner core boundary, we employ standard error propagation to obtain a core mass fraction of 32.5 ± 0.3 wt%. Our bulk Earth abundances are the weighted sum of our concordance core abundances and concordance PM abundances. Unlike previous efforts, the uncertainty on the core mass fraction is propagated to the uncertainties on the bulk Earth elemental abundances. Our concordance estimates for the abundances of Mg, Sn, Br, B, Cd and Be are significantly lower than previous estimates of the bulk Earth. Our concordance estimates for the abundances of Na, K, Cl, Zn, Sr, F, Ga, Rb, Nb, Gd, Ta, He, Ar, and Kr are significantly higher. The uncertainties on our elemental abundances usefully calibrate the unresolved discrepancies between standard Earth models under

  11. An Earth-Abundant Catalyst-Based Seawater Photoelectrolysis System with 17.9% Solar-to-Hydrogen Efficiency.

    PubMed

    Hsu, Shao-Hui; Miao, Jianwei; Zhang, Liping; Gao, Jiajian; Wang, Hongming; Tao, Huabing; Hung, Sung-Fu; Vasileff, Anthony; Qiao, Shi Zhang; Liu, Bin

    2018-05-01

    The implementation of water splitting systems, powered by sustainable energy resources, appears to be an attractive strategy for producing high-purity H 2 in the absence of the release of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ). However, the high cost, impractical operating conditions, and unsatisfactory efficiency and stability of conventional methods restrain their large-scale development. Seawater covers 70% of the Earth's surface and is one of the most abundant natural resources on the planet. New research is looking into the possibility of using seawater to produce hydrogen through electrolysis and will provide remarkable insight into sustainable H 2 production, if successful. Here, guided by density functional theory (DFT) calculations to predict the selectivity of gas-evolving catalysts, a seawater-splitting device equipped with affordable state-of-the-art electrocatalysts composed of earth-abundant elements (Fe, Co, Ni, and Mo) is demonstrated. This device shows excellent durability and specific selectivity toward the oxygen evolution reaction in seawater with near 100% Faradaic efficiency for the production of H 2 and O 2 . Powered by a single commercial III-V triple-junction photovoltaic cell, the integrated system achieves spontaneous and efficient generation of high-purity H 2 and O 2 from seawater at neutral pH with a remarkable 17.9% solar-to-hydrogen efficiency. © 2018 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  12. Lunar base scenario cost estimates: Lunar base systems study task 6.1

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1988-01-01

    The projected development and production costs of each of the Lunar Base's systems are described and unit costs are estimated for transporting the systems to the lunar surface and for setting up the system.

  13. Dynamic soft tissue deformation estimation based on energy analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gao, Dedong; Lei, Yong; Yao, Bin

    2016-10-01

    The needle placement accuracy of millimeters is required in many needle-based surgeries. The tissue deformation, especially that occurring on the surface of organ tissue, affects the needle-targeting accuracy of both manual and robotic needle insertions. It is necessary to understand the mechanism of tissue deformation during needle insertion into soft tissue. In this paper, soft tissue surface deformation is investigated on the basis of continuum mechanics, where a geometry model is presented to quantitatively approximate the volume of tissue deformation. The energy-based method is presented to the dynamic process of needle insertion into soft tissue based on continuum mechanics, and the volume of the cone is exploited to quantitatively approximate the deformation on the surface of soft tissue. The external work is converted into potential, kinetic, dissipated, and strain energies during the dynamic rigid needle-tissue interactive process. The needle insertion experimental setup, consisting of a linear actuator, force sensor, needle, tissue container, and a light, is constructed while an image-based method for measuring the depth and radius of the soft tissue surface deformations is introduced to obtain the experimental data. The relationship between the changed volume of tissue deformation and the insertion parameters is created based on the law of conservation of energy, with the volume of tissue deformation having been obtained using image-based measurements. The experiments are performed on phantom specimens, and an energy-based analytical fitted model is presented to estimate the volume of tissue deformation. The experimental results show that the energy-based analytical fitted model can predict the volume of soft tissue deformation, and the root mean squared errors of the fitting model and experimental data are 0.61 and 0.25 at the velocities 2.50 mm/s and 5.00 mm/s. The estimating parameters of the soft tissue surface deformations are proven to be useful

  14. Regression-Based Estimates of Observed Functional Status in Centenarians

    PubMed Central

    Mitchell, Meghan B.; Miller, L. Stephen; Woodard, John L.; Davey, Adam; Martin, Peter; Burgess, Molly; Poon, Leonard W.

    2011-01-01

    Purpose of the Study: There is lack of consensus on the best method of functional assessment, and there is a paucity of studies on daily functioning in centenarians. We sought to compare associations between performance-based, self-report, and proxy report of functional status in centenarians. We expected the strongest relationships between proxy reports and observed performance of basic activities of daily living (BADLs) and instrumental activities of daily living (IADLs). We hypothesized that the discrepancy between self-report and observed daily functioning would be modified by cognitive status. We additionally sought to provide clinicians with estimates of centenarians’ observed daily functioning based on their mental status in combination with subjective measures of activities of daily living (ADLs). Design and Methods: Two hundred and forty-four centenarians from the Georgia Centenarian Study were included in this cross-sectional population-based study. Measures included the Direct Assessment of Functional Status, self-report and proxy report of functional status, and the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE). Results: Associations between observed and proxy reports were stronger than between observed and self-report across BADL and IADL measures. A significant MMSE by type of report interaction was found, indicating that lower MMSE performance is associated with a greater discrepancy between subjective and objective ADL measures. Implications: Results demonstrate associations between 3 methods of assessing functional status and suggest proxy reports are generally more accurate than self-report measures. Cognitive status accounted for some of the discrepancy between observed and self-reports, and we provide clinicians with tables to estimate centenarians’ performance on observed functional measures based on MMSE and subjective report of functional status. PMID:20974657

  15. Models of Quantitative Estimations: Rule-Based and Exemplar-Based Processes Compared

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    von Helversen, Bettina; Rieskamp, Jorg

    2009-01-01

    The cognitive processes underlying quantitative estimations vary. Past research has identified task-contingent changes between rule-based and exemplar-based processes (P. Juslin, L. Karlsson, & H. Olsson, 2008). B. von Helversen and J. Rieskamp (2008), however, proposed a simple rule-based model--the mapping model--that outperformed the…

  16. Estimating the distribution of harvested estuarine bivalves with natural-history-based habitat suitability models

    EPA Science Inventory

    Habitat suitability models are useful to forecast how environmental change may affect the abundance or distribution of species of concern. In the case of harvested bivalves, those models may be used to estimate the vulnerability of this valued ecosystem good to natural or human-...

  17. ESTIMATING THE DISTRIBUTION OF HARVESTED ESTUARINE BIVALVES WITH NATURAL-HISTORY-BASED HABITAT SUITABILITY MODELS.

    EPA Science Inventory

    Habitat suitability models are used to forecast how environmental change may affect the abundance or distribution of species of interest. The development of habitat suitability models may be used to estimate the vulnerability of this valued ecosystem good to natural or anthropog...

  18. Comparative Analysis of Various Single-tone Frequency Estimation Techniques in High-order Instantaneous Moments Based Phase Estimation Method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rajshekhar, G.; Gorthi, Sai Siva; Rastogi, Pramod

    2010-04-01

    For phase estimation in digital holographic interferometry, a high-order instantaneous moments (HIM) based method was recently developed which relies on piecewise polynomial approximation of phase and subsequent evaluation of the polynomial coefficients using the HIM operator. A crucial step in the method is mapping the polynomial coefficient estimation to single-tone frequency determination for which various techniques exist. The paper presents a comparative analysis of the performance of the HIM operator based method in using different single-tone frequency estimation techniques for phase estimation. The analysis is supplemented by simulation results.

  19. Assessment of satellite-based precipitation estimates over Paraguay

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oreggioni Weiberlen, Fiorella; Báez Benítez, Julián

    2018-04-01

    Satellite-based precipitation estimates represent a potential alternative source of input data in a plethora of meteorological and hydrological applications, especially in regions characterized by a low density of rain gauge stations. Paraguay provides a good example of a case where the use of satellite-based precipitation could be advantageous. This study aims to evaluate the version 7 of the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA V7; 3B42 V7) and the version 1.0 of the purely satellite-based product of the Climate Prediction Center Morphing Technique (CMORPH RAW) through their comparison with daily in situ precipitation measurements from 1998 to 2012 over Paraguay. The statistical assessment is conducted with several commonly used indexes. Specifically, to evaluate the accuracy of daily precipitation amounts, mean error (ME), root mean square error (RMSE), BIAS, and coefficient of determination (R 2) are used, and to analyze the capability to correctly detect different precipitation intensities, false alarm ratio (FAR), frequency bias index (FBI), and probability of detection (POD) are applied to various rainfall rates (0, 0.1, 0.5, 1, 2, 5, 10, 20, 40, 60, and 80 mm/day). Results indicate that TMPA V7 has a better performance than CMORPH RAW over Paraguay. TMPA V7 has higher accuracy in the estimation of daily rainfall volumes and greater precision in the detection of wet days (> 0 mm/day). However, both satellite products show a lower ability to appropriately detect high intensity precipitation events.

  20. Generalized watermarking attack based on watermark estimation and perceptual remodulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Voloshynovskiy, Sviatoslav V.; Pereira, Shelby; Herrigel, Alexander; Baumgartner, Nazanin; Pun, Thierry

    2000-05-01

    Digital image watermarking has become a popular technique for authentication and copyright protection. For verifying the security and robustness of watermarking algorithms, specific attacks have to be applied to test them. In contrast to the known Stirmark attack, which degrades the quality of the image while destroying the watermark, this paper presents a new approach which is based on the estimation of a watermark and the exploitation of the properties of Human Visual System (HVS). The new attack satisfies two important requirements. First, image quality after the attack as perceived by the HVS is not worse than the quality of the stego image. Secondly, the attack uses all available prior information about the watermark and cover image statistics to perform the best watermark removal or damage. The proposed attack is based on a stochastic formulation of the watermark removal problem, considering the embedded watermark as additive noise with some probability distribution. The attack scheme consists of two main stages: (1) watermark estimation and partial removal by a filtering based on a Maximum a Posteriori (MAP) approach; (2) watermark alteration and hiding through addition of noise to the filtered image, taking into account the statistics of the embedded watermark and exploiting HVS characteristics. Experiments on a number of real world and computer generated images show the high efficiency of the proposed attack against known academic and commercial methods: the watermark is completely destroyed in all tested images without altering the image quality. The approach can be used against watermark embedding schemes that operate either in coordinate domain, or transform domains like Fourier, DCT or wavelet.

  1. THE SEGUE STELLAR PARAMETER PIPELINE. V. ESTIMATION OF ALPHA-ELEMENT ABUNDANCE RATIOS FROM LOW-RESOLUTION SDSS/SEGUE STELLAR SPECTRA

    SciTech Connect

    Lee, Young Sun; Beers, Timothy C.; Prieto, Carlos Allende

    We present a method for the determination of [{alpha}/Fe] ratios from low-resolution (R = 2000) SDSS/SEGUE stellar spectra. By means of a star-by-star comparison with degraded spectra from the ELODIE spectral library and with a set of moderately high-resolution (R = 15, 000) and medium-resolution (R = 6000) spectra of SDSS/SEGUE stars, we demonstrate that we are able to measure [{alpha}/Fe] from SDSS/SEGUE spectra (with S/N>20/1) to a precision of better than 0.1 dex, for stars with atmospheric parameters in the range T{sub eff} = [4500, 7000] K, log g = [1.5, 5.0], and [Fe/H] = [-1.4, +0.3], over themore » range [{alpha}/Fe] = [-0.1, +0.6]. For stars with [Fe/H] <-1.4, our method requires spectra with slightly higher signal-to-noise to achieve this precision (S/N>25/1). Over the full temperature range considered, the lowest metallicity star for which a confident estimate of [{alpha}/Fe] can be obtained from our approach is [Fe/H] {approx}-2.5; preliminary tests indicate that a metallicity limit as low as [Fe/H] {approx}-3.0 may apply to cooler stars. As a further validation of this approach, weighted averages of [{alpha}/Fe] obtained for SEGUE spectra of likely member stars of Galactic globular clusters (M15, M13, and M71) and open clusters (NGC 2420, M67, and NGC 6791) exhibit good agreement with the values of [{alpha}/Fe] from previous studies. The results of the comparison with NGC 6791 imply that the metallicity range for the method may extend to {approx}+0.5.« less

  2. Model based estimation of image depth and displacement

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Damour, Kevin T.

    1992-01-01

    Passive depth and displacement map determinations have become an important part of computer vision processing. Applications that make use of this type of information include autonomous navigation, robotic assembly, image sequence compression, structure identification, and 3-D motion estimation. With the reliance of such systems on visual image characteristics, a need to overcome image degradations, such as random image-capture noise, motion, and quantization effects, is clearly necessary. Many depth and displacement estimation algorithms also introduce additional distortions due to the gradient operations performed on the noisy intensity images. These degradations can limit the accuracy and reliability of the displacement or depth information extracted from such sequences. Recognizing the previously stated conditions, a new method to model and estimate a restored depth or displacement field is presented. Once a model has been established, the field can be filtered using currently established multidimensional algorithms. In particular, the reduced order model Kalman filter (ROMKF), which has been shown to be an effective tool in the reduction of image intensity distortions, was applied to the computed displacement fields. Results of the application of this model show significant improvements on the restored field. Previous attempts at restoring the depth or displacement fields assumed homogeneous characteristics which resulted in the smoothing of discontinuities. In these situations, edges were lost. An adaptive model parameter selection method is provided that maintains sharp edge boundaries in the restored field. This has been successfully applied to images representative of robotic scenarios. In order to accommodate image sequences, the standard 2-D ROMKF model is extended into 3-D by the incorporation of a deterministic component based on previously restored fields. The inclusion of past depth and displacement fields allows a means of incorporating the temporal

  3. Methow River Studies, Washington: abundance estimates from Beaver Creek and the Chewuch River screw trap, methodology testing in the Whitefish Island side channel, and survival and detection estimates from hatchery fish releases, 2013

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Martens, Kyle D.; Fish, Teresa M.; Watson, Grace A.; Connolly, Patrick J.

    2014-01-01

    2008, focuses on the evaluation of the M2 reach (rkm 66– 80) of the mainstem Methow River prior to restoration actions planned by Reclamation and Yakama Nation. The M2 study was designed to help understand the inter-relationships between stream habitat and the life history of various fish species to explain potential success or limitations in response to restoration actions. To help document changes derived by restoration, two reference reaches (Upper Methow between rkm 85 and 90, and Chewuch River between rkm 4 and 11) were identified based on relative lack of disturbance, proximity to the restoration reach, and relative unconfined geomorphology. A control reach (Lower Methow between rkm 57 and 64, also referred to as “Silver Reach”) was 2 identified based on its similar disturbance as the reference reach, proximity to the restoration reach, and relatively unconfined geomorphology. Products to date include Barber and others (2011), Bellmore (2011), Tibbits and others (2012), Bellmore and others (2013), Benjamin and others (2013), Romine and others (2013b), Bellmore and other (2014), Martens and others (2014), and Martens and Connolly (2014). The third phase of work has been to help with the development and to provide data for modeling efforts. Most of the planned M2 reach restoration is focused on the creation or improvement of offchannel habitat, especially side channels. The pre-restoration portion of this study has been documented by Martens and Connolly (2014). Side channel restoration actions were initiated in 2012 (Whitefish Island side channel, also referred to as SC3; rkm 76) and are planned to continue over the next several years. The Whitefish Island side channel was modified to maintain hydrological connection with the mainstem throughout the year. In addition, several log structures were installed and pools were deepened to create fish habitat. Prior to restoration, this side channel would lose hydrological connection with the mainstem Methow River

  4. Real-time yield estimation based on deep learning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rahnemoonfar, Maryam; Sheppard, Clay

    2017-05-01

    Crop yield estimation is an important task in product management and marketing. Accurate yield prediction helps farmers to make better decision on cultivation practices, plant disease prevention, and the size of harvest labor force. The current practice of yield estimation based on the manual counting of fruits is very time consuming and expensive process and it is not practical for big fields. Robotic systems including Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) and Unmanned Ground Vehicles (UGV), provide an efficient, cost-effective, flexible, and scalable solution for product management and yield prediction. Recently huge data has been gathered from agricultural field, however efficient analysis of those data is still a challenging task. Computer vision approaches currently face diffident challenges in automatic counting of fruits or flowers including occlusion caused by leaves, branches or other fruits, variance in natural illumination, and scale. In this paper a novel deep convolutional network algorithm was developed to facilitate the accurate yield prediction and automatic counting of fruits and vegetables on the images. Our method is robust to occlusion, shadow, uneven illumination and scale. Experimental results in comparison to the state-of-the art show the effectiveness of our algorithm.

  5. Robust linear discriminant analysis with distance based estimators

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lim, Yai-Fung; Yahaya, Sharipah Soaad Syed; Ali, Hazlina

    2017-11-01

    Linear discriminant analysis (LDA) is one of the supervised classification techniques concerning relationship between a categorical variable and a set of continuous variables. The main objective of LDA is to create a function to distinguish between populations and allocating future observations to previously defined populations. Under the assumptions of normality and homoscedasticity, the LDA yields optimal linear discriminant rule (LDR) between two or more groups. However, the optimality of LDA highly relies on the sample mean and pooled sample covariance matrix which are known to be sensitive to outliers. To alleviate these conflicts, a new robust LDA using distance based estimators known as minimum variance vector (MVV) has been proposed in this study. The MVV estimators were used to substitute the classical sample mean and classical sample covariance to form a robust linear discriminant rule (RLDR). Simulation and real data study were conducted to examine on the performance of the proposed RLDR measured in terms of misclassification error rates. The computational result showed that the proposed RLDR is better than the classical LDR and was comparable with the existing robust LDR.

  6. Global precipitation estimates based on a technique for combining satellite-based estimates, rain gauge analysis, and NWP model precipitation information

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Huffman, George J.; Adler, Robert F.; Rudolf, Bruno; Schneider, Udo; Keehn, Peter R.

    1995-01-01

    The 'satellite-gauge model' (SGM) technique is described for combining precipitation estimates from microwave satellite data, infrared satellite data, rain gauge analyses, and numerical weather prediction models into improved estimates of global precipitation. Throughout, monthly estimates on a 2.5 degrees x 2.5 degrees lat-long grid are employed. First, a multisatellite product is developed using a combination of low-orbit microwave and geosynchronous-orbit infrared data in the latitude range 40 degrees N - 40 degrees S (the adjusted geosynchronous precipitation index) and low-orbit microwave data alone at higher latitudes. Then the rain gauge analysis is brougth in, weighting each field by its inverse relative error variance to produce a nearly global, observationally based precipitation estimate. To produce a complete global estimate, the numerical model results are used to fill data voids in the combined satellite-gauge estimate. Our sequential approach to combining estimates allows a user to select the multisatellite estimate, the satellite-gauge estimate, or the full SGM estimate (observationally based estimates plus the model information). The primary limitation in the method is imperfections in the estimation of relative error for the individual fields. The SGM results for one year of data (July 1987 to June 1988) show important differences from the individual estimates, including model estimates as well as climatological estimates. In general, the SGM results are drier in the subtropics than the model and climatological results, reflecting the relatively dry microwave estimates that dominate the SGM in oceanic regions.

  7. Statistics based sampling for controller and estimator design

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tenne, Dirk

    The purpose of this research is the development of statistical design tools for robust feed-forward/feedback controllers and nonlinear estimators. This dissertation is threefold and addresses the aforementioned topics nonlinear estimation, target tracking and robust control. To develop statistically robust controllers and nonlinear estimation algorithms, research has been performed to extend existing techniques, which propagate the statistics of the state, to achieve higher order accuracy. The so-called unscented transformation has been extended to capture higher order moments. Furthermore, higher order moment update algorithms based on a truncated power series have been developed. The proposed techniques are tested on various benchmark examples. Furthermore, the unscented transformation has been utilized to develop a three dimensional geometrically constrained target tracker. The proposed planar circular prediction algorithm has been developed in a local coordinate framework, which is amenable to extension of the tracking algorithm to three dimensional space. This tracker combines the predictions of a circular prediction algorithm and a constant velocity filter by utilizing the Covariance Intersection. This combined prediction can be updated with the subsequent measurement using a linear estimator. The proposed technique is illustrated on a 3D benchmark trajectory, which includes coordinated turns and straight line maneuvers. The third part of this dissertation addresses the design of controller which include knowledge of parametric uncertainties and their distributions. The parameter distributions are approximated by a finite set of points which are calculated by the unscented transformation. This set of points is used to design robust controllers which minimize a statistical performance of the plant over the domain of uncertainty consisting of a combination of the mean and variance. The proposed technique is illustrated on three benchmark problems. The first

  8. Probabilistic confidence for decisions based on uncertain reliability estimates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reid, Stuart G.

    2013-05-01

    Reliability assessments are commonly carried out to provide a rational basis for risk-informed decisions concerning the design or maintenance of engineering systems and structures. However, calculated reliabilities and associated probabilities of failure often have significant uncertainties associated with the possible estimation errors relative to the 'true' failure probabilities. For uncertain probabilities of failure, a measure of 'probabilistic confidence' has been proposed to reflect the concern that uncertainty about the true probability of failure could result in a system or structure that is unsafe and could subsequently fail. The paper describes how the concept of probabilistic confidence can be applied to evaluate and appropriately limit the probabilities of failure attributable to particular uncertainties such as design errors that may critically affect the dependability of risk-acceptance decisions. This approach is illustrated with regard to the dependability of structural design processes based on prototype testing with uncertainties attributable to sampling variability.

  9. Degradation trend estimation of slewing bearing based on LSSVM model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lu, Chao; Chen, Jie; Hong, Rongjing; Feng, Yang; Li, Yuanyuan

    2016-08-01

    A novel prediction method is proposed based on least squares support vector machine (LSSVM) to estimate the slewing bearing's degradation trend with small sample data. This method chooses the vibration signal which contains rich state information as the object of the study. Principal component analysis (PCA) was applied to fuse multi-feature vectors which could reflect the health state of slewing bearing, such as root mean square, kurtosis, wavelet energy entropy, and intrinsic mode function (IMF) energy. The degradation indicator fused by PCA can reflect the degradation more comprehensively and effectively. Then the degradation trend of slewing bearing was predicted by using the LSSVM model optimized by particle swarm optimization (PSO). The proposed method was demonstrated to be more accurate and effective by the whole life experiment of slewing bearing. Therefore, it can be applied in engineering practice.

  10. SEE rate estimation based on diffusion approximation of charge collection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sogoyan, Armen V.; Chumakov, Alexander I.; Smolin, Anatoly A.

    2018-03-01

    The integral rectangular parallelepiped (IRPP) method remains the main approach to single event rate (SER) prediction for aerospace systems, despite the growing number of issues impairing method's validity when applied to scaled technology nodes. One of such issues is uncertainty in parameters extraction in the IRPP method, which can lead to a spread of several orders of magnitude in the subsequently calculated SER. The paper presents an alternative approach to SER estimation based on diffusion approximation of the charge collection by an IC element and geometrical interpretation of SEE cross-section. In contrast to the IRPP method, the proposed model includes only two parameters which are uniquely determined from the experimental data for normal incidence irradiation at an ion accelerator. This approach eliminates the necessity of arbitrary decisions during parameter extraction and, thus, greatly simplifies calculation procedure and increases the robustness of the forecast.

  11. Transfer Alignment Error Compensator Design Based on Robust State Estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lyou, Joon; Lim, You-Chol

    This paper examines the transfer alignment problem of the StrapDown Inertial Navigation System (SDINS), which is subject to the ship’s roll and pitch. Major error sources for velocity and attitude matching are lever arm effect, measurement time delay and ship-body flexure. To reduce these alignment errors, an error compensation method based on state augmentation and robust state estimation is devised. A linearized error model for the velocity and attitude matching transfer alignment system is derived first by linearizing the nonlinear measurement equation with respect to its time delay and dominant Y-axis flexure, and by augmenting the delay state and flexure state into conventional linear state equations. Then an H∞ filter is introduced to account for modeling uncertainties of time delay and the ship-body flexure. The simulation results show that this method considerably decreases azimuth alignment errors considerably.

  12. Using Genotype Abundance to Improve Phylogenetic Inference

    PubMed Central

    Mesin, Luka; Victora, Gabriel D; Minin, Vladimir N; Matsen, Frederick A

    2018-01-01

    Abstract Modern biological techniques enable very dense genetic sampling of unfolding evolutionary histories, and thus frequently sample some genotypes multiple times. This motivates strategies to incorporate genotype abundance information in phylogenetic inference. In this article, we synthesize a stochastic process model with standard sequence-based phylogenetic optimality, and show that tree estimation is substantially improved by doing so. Our method is validated with extensive simulations and an experimental single-cell lineage tracing study of germinal center B cell receptor affinity maturation. PMID:29474671

  13. The Effect of Pre-Analytical Variability on the Measurement of MRM-MS-Based Mid- to High-Abundance Plasma Protein Biomarkers and a Panel of Cytokines

    PubMed Central

    Aguilar-Mahecha, Adriana; Kuzyk, Michael A.; Domanski, Dominik; Borchers, Christoph H.; Basik, Mark

    2012-01-01

    Blood sample processing and handling can have a significant impact on the stability and levels of proteins measured in biomarker studies. Such pre-analytical variability needs to be well understood in the context of the different proteomics platforms available for biomarker discovery and validation. In the present study we evaluated different types of blood collection tubes including the BD P100 tube containing protease inhibitors as well as CTAD tubes, which prevent platelet activation. We studied the effect of different processing protocols as well as delays in tube processing on the levels of 55 mid and high abundance plasma proteins using novel multiple-reaction monitoring-mass spectrometry (MRM-MS) assays as well as 27 low abundance cytokines using a commercially available multiplexed bead-based immunoassay. The use of P100 tubes containing protease inhibitors only conferred proteolytic protection for 4 cytokines and only one MRM-MS-measured peptide. Mid and high abundance proteins measured by MRM are highly stable in plasma left unprocessed for up to six hours although platelet activation can also impact the levels of these proteins. The levels of cytokines were elevated when tubes were centrifuged at cold temperature, while low levels were detected when samples were collected in CTAD tubes. Delays in centrifugation also had an impact on the levels of cytokines measured depending on the type of collection tube used. Our findings can help in the development of guidelines for blood collection and processing for proteomic biomarker studies. PMID:22701622

  14. The effect of pre-analytical variability on the measurement of MRM-MS-based mid- to high-abundance plasma protein biomarkers and a panel of cytokines.

    PubMed

    Aguilar-Mahecha, Adriana; Kuzyk, Michael A; Domanski, Dominik; Borchers, Christoph H; Basik, Mark

    2012-01-01

    Blood sample processing and handling can have a significant impact on the stability and levels of proteins measured in biomarker studies. Such pre-analytical variability needs to be well understood in the context of the different proteomics platforms available for biomarker discovery and validation. In the present study we evaluated different types of blood collection tubes including the BD P100 tube containing protease inhibitors as well as CTAD tubes, which prevent platelet activation. We studied the effect of different processing protocols as well as delays in tube processing on the levels of 55 mid and high abundance plasma proteins using novel multiple-reaction monitoring-mass spectrometry (MRM-MS) assays as well as 27 low abundance cytokines using a commercially available multiplexed bead-based immunoassay. The use of P100 tubes containing protease inhibitors only conferred proteolytic protection for 4 cytokines and only one MRM-MS-measured peptide. Mid and high abundance proteins measured by MRM are highly stable in plasma left unprocessed for up to six hours although platelet activation can also impact the levels of these proteins. The levels of cytokines were elevated when tubes were centrifuged at cold temperature, while low levels were detected when samples were collected in CTAD tubes. Delays in centrifugation also had an impact on the levels of cytokines measured depending on the type of collection tube used. Our findings can help in the development of guidelines for blood collection and processing for proteomic biomarker studies.

  15. Links between sulphur oxidation and sulphur-oxidising bacteria abundance and diversity in soil microcosms based on soxB functional gene analysis.

    PubMed

    Tourna, Maria; Maclean, Paul; Condron, Leo; O'Callaghan, Maureen; Wakelin, Steven A

    2014-06-01

    Sulphur-oxidising bacteria (SOB) play a key role in the biogeochemical cycling of sulphur in soil ecosystems. However, the ecology of SOB is poorly understood, and there is little knowledge about the taxa capable of sulphur oxidation, their distribution, habitat preferences and ecophysiology. Furthermore, as yet there are no conclusive links between SOB community size or structure and rates of sulphur oxidation. We have developed a molecular approach based on primer design targeting the soxB functional gene of nonfilamentous chemolithotrophic SOB that allows assessment of both abundance and diversity. Cloning and sequencing revealed considerable diversity of known soxB genotypes from agricultural soils and also evidence for previously undescribed taxa. In a microcosm experiment, abundance of soxB genes increased with sulphur oxidation rate in soils amended with elemental sulphur. Addition of elemental sulphur to soil had a significant effect in the soxB gene diversity, with the chemolithotrophic Thiobacillus-like Betaproteobacteria sequences dominating clone libraries 6 days after sulphur application. Using culture-independent methodology, the study provides evidence for links between abundance and diversity of SOB and sulphur oxidation. The methodology provides a new tool for investigation of the ecology and role of SOB in soil sulphur biogeochemistry. © 2014 Federation of European Microbiological Societies. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Estimation of the 24-h urinary protein excretion based on the estimated urinary creatinine output.

    PubMed

    Ubukata, Masamitsu; Takei, Takashi; Nitta, Kosaku

    2016-06-01

    The urinary protein/creatinine ratio [Up/Ucr (g/gCr)] has been used in the clinical management of patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). However, a discrepancy is often noted between the Up/Ucr and 24-h urinary protein excretion [24hUp (g/day)] in patients with extremes of muscle mass. We examined devised a method for precise estimation of the 24-h urinary protein excretion (E-24hUp) based on estimation of 24-h urinary creatinine output (E-24hCr). Three parameters, spot Up/Ucr, 24hUP and E-24hUp (=Up/Ucr × E-24hCr), were determined in 116 adult patients with CKD. The correlations among the groups were analyzed. There was a significant correlation between the Up/Ucr and 24hUp (p < 0.001). We divided the patients into three groups according to the 24hUp; the low urinary protein group (<1.0 g/day), the intermediate urinary protein group (1.0-3.5 g/day), and the high urinary protein group (>3.5 g/day). There was a significant correlation between the Up/Ucr and 24hUp in the low (p = 0.04) and high urinary protein (p = 0.01) groups, whereas the correlation coefficient was lower in the intermediate urinary protein (p = 0.07) group. Thus, we found a significant correlation between 24hUp and E-24hUp in the study population overall (p < 0.001), in the low (p = 0.01), in the intermediate (p < 0.001), and in the high urinary protein group (p < 0.001). We conclude that a poor correlation exists between the Up/Ucr and 24hUp in patients with intermediate urinary protein excretion levels. The recommended parameter for monitoring proteinuria in such patients may be the E-24hUp, which is calculated using the E-24hCr.

  17. Software Effort Estimation Accuracy: A Comparative Study of Estimations Based on Software Sizing and Development Methods

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lafferty, Mark T.

    2010-01-01

    The number of project failures and those projects completed over cost and over schedule has been a significant issue for software project managers. Among the many reasons for failure, inaccuracy in software estimation--the basis for project bidding, budgeting, planning, and probability estimates--has been identified as a root cause of a high…

  18. Chemical abundances and kinematics of 257 G-, K-type field giants. Setting a base for further analysis of giant-planet properties orbiting evolved stars

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Adibekyan, V. Zh.; Benamati, L.; Santos, N. C.; Alves, S.; Lovis, C.; Udry, S.; Israelian, G.; Sousa, S. G.; Tsantaki, M.; Mortier, A.; Sozzetti, A.; De Medeiros, J. R.

    2015-06-01

    We performed a uniform and detailed abundance analysis of 12 refractory elements (Na, Mg, Al, Si, Ca, Ti, Cr, Ni, Co, Sc, Mn, and V) for a sample of 257 G- and K-type evolved stars from the CORALIE planet search programme. To date, only one of these stars is known to harbour a planetary companion. We aimed to characterize this large sample of evolved stars in terms of chemical abundances and kinematics, thus setting a solid base for further analysis of planetary properties around giant stars. This sample, being homogeneously analysed, can be used as a comparison sample for other planet-related studies, as well as for different type of studies related to stellar and Galaxy astrophysics. The abundances of the chemical elements were determined using an local thermodynamic equilibrium (LTE) abundance analysis relative to the Sun, with the spectral synthesis code MOOG and a grid of Kurucz ATLAS9 atmospheres. To separate the Galactic stellar populations, both a purely kinematical approach and a chemical method were applied. We confirm the overabundance of Na in giant stars compared to the field FGK dwarfs. This enhancement might have a stellar evolutionary character, but departures from LTE may also produce a similar enhancement. Our chemical separation of stellar populations also suggests a `gap' in metallicity between the thick-disc and high-α metal-rich stars, as previously observed in dwarfs sample from HARPS. The present sample, as most of the giant star samples, also suffers from the B - V colour cut-off, which excludes low-log g stars with high metallicities, and high-log g star with low [Fe/H]. For future studies of planet occurrence dependence on stellar metallicity around these evolved stars, we suggest to use a subsample of stars in a `cut-rectangle' in the log g-[Fe/H] diagram to overcome the aforementioned issue.

  19. Embryonal tumor with abundant neuropil and true rosettes: an autopsy case-based update and review of the literature.

    PubMed

    Adamek, Dariusz; Sofowora, Kolawole D; Cwiklinska, Magdalena; Herman-Sucharska, Izabela; Kwiatkowski, Stanislaw

    2013-05-01

    Embryonal tumor with abundant neuropil and true rosettes (ETANTR) is a rare subtype of primitive neuroectodermal tumors first reported in 2000. It is rare among the group of embryonal central nervous system tumors with approximately 50 reported cases. ETANTR has been suggested to be a separate entity among this group of tumors. Herein, we present only the second autopsy case of ETANTR, which occurred in a 17-month-old boy, and was located in the brainstem. The tumor was inoperable, and despite chemotherapy, the child died 3 months after initial hospitalization. A brain only autopsy was performed. Neuropathological and neuroimaging examinations suggest ETANTR grew by expansion rather than invasion distorting anatomical structures of the posterior fossa. We suggest that the characteristic histopathological picture of the tumor is the result of multifocal and dispersed germinative activity surrounded by mature neuropil-like areas. ETANTR is a pediatric tumor occurring in children under 4 with a significantly poor prognosis with more cases and research required to characterize this rare embryonal tumor.

  20. EEG-based workload estimation across affective contexts

    PubMed Central

    Mühl, Christian; Jeunet, Camille; Lotte, Fabien

    2014-01-01

    Workload estimation from electroencephalographic signals (EEG) offers a highly sensitive tool to adapt the human–computer interaction to the user state. To create systems that reliably work in the complexity of the real world, a robustness against contextual changes (e.g., mood), has to be achieved. To study the resilience of state-of-the-art EEG-based workload classification against stress we devise a novel experimental protocol, in which we manipulated the affective context (stressful/non-stressful) while the participant solved a task with two workload levels. We recorded self-ratings, behavior, and physiology from 24 participants to validate the protocol. We test the capability of different, subject-specific workload classifiers using either frequency-domain, time-domain, or both feature varieties to generalize across contexts. We show that the classifiers are able to transfer between affective contexts, though performance suffers independent of the used feature domain. However, cross-context training is a simple and powerful remedy allowing the extraction of features in all studied feature varieties that are more resilient to task-unrelated variations in signal characteristics. Especially for frequency-domain features, across-context training is leading to a performance comparable to within-context training and testing. We discuss the significance of the result for neurophysiology-based workload detection in particular and for the construction of reliable passive brain–computer interfaces in general. PMID:24971046

  1. Unsupervised, Robust Estimation-based Clustering for Multispectral Images

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Netanyahu, Nathan S.

    1997-01-01

    To prepare for the challenge of handling the archiving and querying of terabyte-sized scientific spatial databases, the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center's Applied Information Sciences Branch (AISB, Code 935) developed a number of characterization algorithms that rely on supervised clustering techniques. The research reported upon here has been aimed at continuing the evolution of some of these supervised techniques, namely the neural network and decision tree-based classifiers, plus extending the approach to incorporating unsupervised clustering algorithms, such as those based on robust estimation (RE) techniques. The algorithms developed under this task should be suited for use by the Intelligent Information Fusion System (IIFS) metadata extraction modules, and as such these algorithms must be fast, robust, and anytime in nature. Finally, so that the planner/schedule module of the IlFS can oversee the use and execution of these algorithms, all information required by the planner/scheduler must be provided to the IIFS development team to ensure the timely integration of these algorithms into the overall system.

  2. The relative pose estimation of aircraft based on contour model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fu, Tai; Sun, Xiangyi

    2017-02-01

    This paper proposes a relative pose estimation approach based on object contour model. The first step is to obtain a two-dimensional (2D) projection of three-dimensional (3D)-model-based target, which will be divided into 40 forms by clustering and LDA analysis. Then we proceed by extracting the target contour in each image and computing their Pseudo-Zernike Moments (PZM), thus a model library is constructed in an offline mode. Next, we spot a projection contour that resembles the target silhouette most in the present image from the model library with reference of PZM; then similarity transformation parameters are generated as the shape context is applied to match the silhouette sampling location, from which the identification parameters of target can be further derived. Identification parameters are converted to relative pose parameters, in the premise that these values are the initial result calculated via iterative refinement algorithm, as the relative pose parameter is in the neighborhood of actual ones. At last, Distance Image Iterative Least Squares (DI-ILS) is employed to acquire the ultimate relative pose parameters.

  3. Data Sources for the Model-based Small Area Estimates of Cancer-Related Knowledge - Small Area Estimates

    Cancer.gov

    The model-based estimates of important cancer risk factors and screening behaviors are obtained by combining the responses to the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) and the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS).

  4. Data Sources for the Model-based Small Area Estimates of Cancer Risk Factors and Screening Behaviors - Small Area Estimates

    Cancer.gov

    The model-based estimates of important cancer risk factors and screening behaviors are obtained by combining the responses to the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) and the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS).

  5. Sequential ensemble-based optimal design for parameter estimation: SEQUENTIAL ENSEMBLE-BASED OPTIMAL DESIGN

    SciTech Connect

    Man, Jun; Zhang, Jiangjiang; Li, Weixuan

    2016-10-01

    The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) has been widely used in parameter estimation for hydrological models. The focus of most previous studies was to develop more efficient analysis (estimation) algorithms. On the other hand, it is intuitively understandable that a well-designed sampling (data-collection) strategy should provide more informative measurements and subsequently improve the parameter estimation. In this work, a Sequential Ensemble-based Optimal Design (SEOD) method, coupled with EnKF, information theory and sequential optimal design, is proposed to improve the performance of parameter estimation. Based on the first-order and second-order statistics, different information metrics including the Shannon entropy difference (SD), degrees ofmore » freedom for signal (DFS) and relative entropy (RE) are used to design the optimal sampling strategy, respectively. The effectiveness of the proposed method is illustrated by synthetic one-dimensional and two-dimensional unsaturated flow case studies. It is shown that the designed sampling strategies can provide more accurate parameter estimation and state prediction compared with conventional sampling strategies. Optimal sampling designs based on various information metrics perform similarly in our cases. The effect of ensemble size on the optimal design is also investigated. Overall, larger ensemble size improves the parameter estimation and convergence of optimal sampling strategy. Although the proposed method is applied to unsaturated flow problems in this study, it can be equally applied in any other hydrological problems.« less

  6. Water balance-based estimation of groundwater recharge in the Lake Chad Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Babamaaji, R. A.; Lee, J.

    2012-12-01

    Lake Chad Basin (LCB) has experienced drastic changes of land cover and poor water management practices during the last 50 years. The successive droughts in the 1970s and 1980s resulted in the shortage of surface water and groundwater resources. This problem of drought and shortage of water has a devastating implication on the natural resources of the Basin with great consequence on food security, poverty reduction and quality of life of the inhabitants in the LCB. Therefore, understanding the change of land use and its characteristics must be a first step to find how such changes disturb the water cycle especially the groundwater in the LCB. The abundance of groundwater is affected by the climate change through the interaction with surface water, such as lakes and rivers, and vertical recharge through an infiltration process. Quantifying the impact of climate change on the groundwater resource requires not only reliable forecasting of changes in the major climatic variables, but also accurate estimation of groundwater recharge. Spatial variations in the land use/land cover, soil texture, topographic slope, and meteorological conditions should be accounted for in the recharge estimation. In this study, we employed a spatially distributed water balance model WetSpass to simulate a long-term average change of groundwater recharge in the LCB of Africa. WetSpass is a water balance-based model to estimate seasonal average spatial distribution of surface runoff, evapotranspiration, and groundwater recharge. The model is especially suitable for studying the effect of land use/land cover change on the water regime in the LCB. The present study describes the concept of the model and its application to the development of recharge map of the LCB.

  7. Thermal affinity as the dominant factor changing Mediterranean fish abundances.

    PubMed

    Givan, Or; Edelist, Dor; Sonin, Oren; Belmaker, Jonathan

    2018-01-01

    Recent decades have seen profound changes in species abundance and community composition. In the marine environment, the major anthropogenic drivers of change comprise exploitation, invasion by nonindigenous species, and climate change. However, the magnitude of these stressors has been widely debated and we lack empirical estimates of their relative importance. In this study, we focused on Eastern Mediterranean, a region exposed to an invasion of species of Red Sea origin, extreme climate change, and high fishing pressure. We estimated changes in fish abundance using two fish trawl surveys spanning a 20-year period, and correlated these changes with estimated sensitivity of species to the different stressors. We estimated sensitivity to invasion using the trait similarity between indigenous and nonindigenous species; sensitivity to fishing using a published composite index based on the species' life-history; and sensitivity to climate change using species climatic affinity based on occurrence data. Using both a meta-analytical method and random forest analysis, we found that for shallow-water species the most important driver of population size changes is sensitivity to climate change. Species with an affinity to warm climates increased in relative abundance and species with an affinity to cold climates decreased suggesting a strong response to warming local sea temperatures over recent decades. This decrease in the abundance of cold-water-associated species at the trailing "warm" end of their distribution has been rarely documented. Despite the immense biomass of nonindigenous species and the presumed high fishing pressure, these two latter factors seem to have only a minor role in explaining abundance changes. The decline in abundance of indigenous species of cold-water origin indicates a future major restructuring of fish communities in the Mediterranean in response to the ongoing warming, with unknown impacts on ecosystem function. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons

  8. Estimation of pyrethroid pesticide intake using regression modeling of food groups based on composite dietary samples

    EPA Science Inventory

    Population-based estimates of pesticide intake are needed to characterize exposure for particular demographic groups based on their dietary behaviors. Regression modeling performed on measurements of selected pesticides in composited duplicate diet samples allowed (1) estimation ...

  9. Estimation of pyrethroid pesticide intake using regression modeling of food groups based on composite dietary samples..

    EPA Science Inventory

    Population-based estimates of pesticide intake are needed to characterize exposure for particular demographic groups based on their dietary behaviors. Regression modeling performed on measurements of selected pesticides in composited duplicate diet samples allowed (1) estimation ...

  10. Estimation of pyrethroid pesticide intake using regression modeling of food groups based on composite dietary samples.

    EPA Science Inventory

    Population-based estimates of pesticide intake are needed to characterize exposure for particular demographic groups based on their dietary behaviors. Regression modeling performed on measurements of selected pesticides in composited duplicate diet samples allowed (1) estimation ...

  11. Estimation of single plane unbalance parameters of a rotor-bearing system using Kalman filtering based force estimation technique

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shrivastava, Akash; Mohanty, A. R.

    2018-03-01

    This paper proposes a model-based method to estimate single plane unbalance parameters (amplitude and phase angle) in a rotor using Kalman filter and recursive least square based input force estimation technique. Kalman filter based input force estimation technique requires state-space model and response measurements. A modified system equivalent reduction expansion process (SEREP) technique is employed to obtain a reduced-order model of the rotor system so that limited response measurements can be used. The method is demonstrated using numerical simulations on a rotor-disk-bearing system. Results are presented for different measurement sets including displacement, velocity, and rotational response. Effects of measurement noise level, filter parameters (process noise covariance and forgetting factor), and modeling error are also presented and it is observed that the unbalance parameter estimation is robust with respect to measurement noise.

  12. Estimation and classification by sigmoids based on mutual information

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Baram, Yoram

    1994-01-01

    An estimate of the probability density function of a random vector is obtained by maximizing the mutual information between the input and the output of a feedforward network of sigmoidal units with respect to the input weights. Classification problems can be solved by selecting the class associated with the maximal estimated density. Newton's s method, applied to an estimated density, yields a recursive maximum likelihood estimator, consisting of a single internal layer of sigmoids, for a random variable or a random sequence. Applications to the diamond classification and to the prediction of a sun-spot process are demonstrated.

  13. A signal strength priority based position estimation for mobile platforms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kalgikar, Bhargav; Akopian, David; Chen, Philip

    2010-01-01

    Global Positioning System (GPS) products help to navigate while driving, hiking, boating, and flying. GPS uses a combination of orbiting satellites to determine position coordinates. This works great in most outdoor areas, but the satellite signals are not strong enough to penetrate inside most indoor environments. As a result, a new strain of indoor positioning technologies that make use of 802.11 wireless LANs (WLAN) is beginning to appear on the market. In WLAN positioning the system either monitors propagation delays between wireless access points and wireless device users to apply trilateration techniques or it maintains the database of location-specific signal fingerprints which is used to identify the most likely match of incoming signal data with those preliminary surveyed and saved in the database. In this paper we investigate the issue of deploying WLAN positioning software on mobile platforms with typically limited computational resources. We suggest a novel received signal strength rank order based location estimation system to reduce computational loads with a robust performance. The proposed system performance is compared to conventional approaches.

  14. Sex estimation based on tooth measurements using panoramic radiographs.

    PubMed

    Capitaneanu, Cezar; Willems, Guy; Jacobs, Reinhilde; Fieuws, Steffen; Thevissen, Patrick

    2017-05-01

    Sex determination is an important step in establishing the biological profile of unidentified human remains. The aims of the study were, firstly, to assess the degree of sexual dimorphism in permanent teeth, based on digital tooth measurements performed on panoramic radiographs. Secondly, to identify sex-related tooth position-specific measurements or combinations of such measurements, and to assess their applicability for potential sex determination. Two hundred digital panoramic radiographs (100 males, 100 females; age range 22-34 years) were retrospectively collected from the dental clinic files of the Dentomaxillofacial Radiology Center of the University Hospitals Leuven, Belgium, and imported in image enhancement software. Tooth length- and width-related variables were measured on all teeth in upper and lower left quadrant, and ratios of variables were calculated. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to quantify the sex discriminative value of the tooth position-specific variables and their combinations. The mandibular and maxillary canine showed the greatest sexual dimorphism, and tooth length variables had the highest discriminative potential. Compared to single variables, combining variables or ratios of variables did not improve substantially the discrimination between males and females. Considering that the discriminative ability values (area under the curve (AUC)) were not higher than 0.80, it is not advocated to use the currently studied dental variables for accurate sex estimation in forensic practice.

  15. Estimating moisture transport over oceans using space-based observations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Liu, W. Timothy; Wenqing, Tang

    2005-01-01

    The moisture transport integrated over the depth of the atmosphere (0) is estimated over oceans using satellite data. The transport is the product of the precipitable water and an equivalent velocity (ue), which, by definition, is the depth-averaged wind velocity weighted by humidity. An artificial neural network is employed to construct a relation between the surface wind velocity measured by the spaceborne scatterometer and coincident ue derived using humidity and wind profiles measured by rawinsondes and produced by reanalysis of operational numerical weather prediction (NWP). On the basis of this relation, 0 fields are produced over global tropical and subtropical oceans (40_N- 40_S) at 0.25_ latitude-longitude and twice daily resolutions from August 1999 to December 2003 using surface wind vector from QuikSCAT and precipitable water from the Tropical Rain Measuring Mission. The derived ue were found to capture the major temporal variability when compared with radiosonde measurements. The average error over global oceans, when compared with NWP data, was comparable with the instrument accuracy specification of space-based scatterometers. The global distribution exhibits the known characteristics of, and reveals more detailed variability than in, previous data.

  16. Disk storage management for LHCb based on Data Popularity estimator

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hushchyn, Mikhail; Charpentier, Philippe; Ustyuzhanin, Andrey

    2015-12-01

    This paper presents an algorithm providing recommendations for optimizing the LHCb data storage. The LHCb data storage system is a hybrid system. All datasets are kept as archives on magnetic tapes. The most popular datasets are kept on disks. The algorithm takes the dataset usage history and metadata (size, type, configuration etc.) to generate a recommendation report. This article presents how we use machine learning algorithms to predict future data popularity. Using these predictions it is possible to estimate which datasets should be removed from disk. We use regression algorithms and time series analysis to find the optimal number of replicas for datasets that are kept on disk. Based on the data popularity and the number of replicas optimization, the algorithm minimizes a loss function to find the optimal data distribution. The loss function represents all requirements for data distribution in the data storage system. We demonstrate how our algorithm helps to save disk space and to reduce waiting times for jobs using this data.

  17. Multi-RTM-based Radiance Assimilation to Improve Snow Estimates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kwon, Y.; Zhao, L.; Hoar, T. J.; Yang, Z. L.; Toure, A. M.

    2015-12-01

    Data assimilation of microwave brightness temperature (TB) observations (i.e., radiance assimilation (RA)) has been proven to improve snowpack characterization at relatively small scales. However, large-scale applications of RA require a considerable amount of further efforts. Our objective in this study is to explore global-scale snow RA. In a RA scheme, a radiative transfer model (RTM) is an observational operator predicting TB; therefore, the quality of the assimilation results may strongly depend upon the RTM used as well as the land surface model (LSM). Several existing RTMs show different sensitivities to snowpack properties and thus they simulate significantly different TB. At the global scale, snow physical properties vary widely with local climate conditions. No single RTM has been shown to be able to accurately reproduce the observed TB for such a wide range of snow conditions. In this study, therefore, we hypothesize that snow estimates using a microwave RA scheme can be improved through the use of multiple RTMs (i.e., multi-RTM-based approaches). As a first step, here we use two snowpack RTMs, i.e., the Dense Media Radiative Transfer-Multi Layers model (DMRT-ML) and the Microwave Emission Model for Layered Snowpacks (MEMLS). The Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4) is used to simulate snow dynamics. The assimilation process is conducted by the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART), which is a community facility developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) for ensemble-based data assimilation studies. In the RA experiments, the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) TB at 18.7 and 36.5 GHz vertical polarization channels are assimilated into the RA system using the ensemble adjustment Kalman filter. The results are evaluated using the Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC) daily snow depth, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) snow cover fraction, and in-situ snowpack and river

  18. Age Estimation Based on Children's Voice: A Fuzzy-Based Decision Fusion Strategy

    PubMed Central

    Ting, Hua-Nong

    2014-01-01

    Automatic estimation of a speaker's age is a challenging research topic in the area of speech analysis. In this paper, a novel approach to estimate a speaker's age is presented. The method features a “divide and conquer” strategy wherein the speech data are divided into six groups based on the vowel classes. There are two reasons behind this strategy. First, reduction in the complicated distribution of the processing data improves the classifier's learning performance. Second, different vowel classes contain complementary information for age estimation. Mel-frequency cepstral coefficients are computed for each group and single layer feed-forward neural networks based on self-adaptive extreme learning machine are applied to the features to make a primary decision. Subsequently, fuzzy data fusion is employed to provide an overall decision by aggregating the classifier's outputs. The results are then compared with a number of state-of-the-art age estimation methods. Experiments conducted based on six age groups including children aged between 7 and 12 years revealed that fuzzy fusion of the classifier's outputs resulted in considerable improvement of up to 53.33% in age estimation accuracy. Moreover, the fuzzy fusion of decisions aggregated the complementary information of a speaker's age from various speech sources. PMID:25006595

  19. 48 CFR 2452.216-70 - Estimated cost, base fee and award fee.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 6 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Estimated cost, base fee... Provisions and Clauses 2452.216-70 Estimated cost, base fee and award fee. As prescribed in 2416.406(e)(1), insert the following clause in all cost-plus-award-fee contracts: Estimated Cost, Base Fee and Award Fee...

  20. 48 CFR 2452.216-70 - Estimated cost, base fee and award fee.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 6 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Estimated cost, base fee... Provisions and Clauses 2452.216-70 Estimated cost, base fee and award fee. As prescribed in 2416.406(e)(1), insert the following clause in all cost-plus-award-fee contracts: Estimated Cost, Base Fee and Award Fee...

  1. [Fatal occupational accidents: estimates based on more data sources].

    PubMed

    Baldasseroni, A; Chellini, E; Zoppi, O; Giovannetti, L

    2001-01-01

    The data reported by INAIL (Istituto Nazionale Assicurazione Infortuni sul Lavoro) on fatal occupational injuries have always been considered complete and reliable. The authors of this article verified the completeness of this information source crossing it with data bases existing in different registration systems (Regional Mortality Registry of Tuscany--RMR; registers and data of the Operative Units of Prevention, Hygiene and Safety in the Workplace--UOPISLL) for the period between 1992 and 1996. In the five years concerned, a total of 458 cases were reported. These cases could be considered fatal injuries at work without taking into account traffic accidents, which were not included in the present study. The results show that the most complete information source was RMR, reporting 80% of the total data, while INAIL reports only 62.2% of the total cases. On the contrary, the UOPISLL source is the least reliable. Using the capture/recapture method, the estimate of events in the period concerned (1992-1996) amounts to nearly 500 (499.8 LC 475.9-523.7), while the three sources systematically explored for the whole period (INAIL, RMR, UOSPILL) report 458 cases. An additional information source, the daily press, which could be systematically tested only two months for each of the five years, reports 10 additional cases, which were ignored by the 3 other sources, indirectly confirming in this way how reliable the performed estimate was. The main cases among the 157 fatal accidents reported by RMR, but not by INAIL, occurred among farmers (70), most of them already retired, but there were several fatal accidents reported in the construction sector (30). Other categories were included only in the RMR data because, in the period concerned, they were not covered by INAIL insurance (18 cases in the Army and Police, 7 on the railways). The survey that was carried out confirms the essential importance of INAIL data for the surveillance system applied to this phenomenon. This

  2. Maximum profile likelihood estimation of differential equation parameters through model based smoothing state estimates.

    PubMed

    Campbell, D A; Chkrebtii, O

    2013-12-01

    Statistical inference for biochemical models often faces a variety of characteristic challenges. In this paper we examine state and parameter estimation for the JAK-STAT intracellular signalling mechanism, which exemplifies the implementation intricacies common in many biochemical inference problems. We introduce an extension to the Generalized Smoothing approach for estimating delay differential equation models, addressing selection of complexity parameters, choice of the basis system, and appropriate optimization strategies. Motivated by the JAK-STAT system, we further extend the generalized smoothing approach to consider a nonlinear observation process with additional unknown parameters, and highlight how the approach handles unobserved states and unevenly spaced observations. The methodology developed is generally applicable to problems of estimation for differential equation models with delays, unobserved states, nonlinear observation processes, and partially observed histories. Crown Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Estimating two-way tables based on forest surveys

    Treesearch

    Charles T. Scott

    2000-01-01

    Forest survey analysts usually are interested in tables of values rather than single point estimates. A common error is to include only plots on which nonzero values of the attribute were observed when computing the variance of a mean. Similarly, analysts often exclude nonforest plots from the analysis. The development of the correct estimates of forest area, attribute...

  4. Annual forest inventory estimates based on the moving average

    Treesearch

    Francis A. Roesch; James R. Steinman; Michael T. Thompson

    2002-01-01

    Three interpretations of the simple moving average estimator, as applied to the USDA Forest Service's annual forest inventory design, are presented. A corresponding approach to composite estimation over arbitrarily defined land areas and time intervals is given for each interpretation, under the assumption that the investigator is armed with only the spatial/...

  5. Snow Water Equivalent estimation based on satellite observation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Macchiavello, G.; Pesce, F.; Boni, G.; Gabellani, S.

    2009-09-01

    The availability of remotely sensed images and them analysis is a powerful tool for monitoring the extension and typology of snow cover over territory where the in situ measurements are often difficult. Information on snow are fundamental for monitoring and forecasting the available water above all in regions at mid latitudes as Mediterranean where snowmelt may cause floods. The hydrological model requirements and the daily acquisitions of MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer), drove, in previous research activities, to the development of a method to automatically map the snow cover from multi-spectral images. But, the major hydrological parameter related to the snow pack is the Snow Water Equivalent (SWE). This represents a direct measure of stored water in the basin. Because of it, the work was focused to the daily estimation of SWE from MODIS images. But, the complexity of this aim, based only on optical data, doesn’t find any information in literature. Since, from the spectral range of MODIS data it is not possible to extract a direct relation between spectral information and the SWE. Then a new method, respectful of the physic of the snow, was defined and developed. Reminding that the snow water equivalent is the product of the three factors as snow density, snow depth and the snow covered areas, the proposed approach works separately on each of these physical behaviors. Referring to the physical characteristic of snow, the snow density is function of the snow age, then it was studied a new method to evaluate this. Where, a module for snow age simulation from albedo information was developed. It activates an age counter updated by new snow information set to estimate snow age from zero accumulation status to the end of melting season. The height of the snow pack, can be retrieved by adopting relation between vegetation and snow depth distributions. This computes snow height distribution by the relation between snow cover fraction and the

  6. Abundances of sulfur in the Milky Way Disk from Peimbert Type II planetary nebulae

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Milingo, Jacquelynne Brenda

    2000-08-01

    Sulfur abundance gradients and heavy element ratios for the Milky Way Disk are constructed based upon newly acquired spectrophotometry of Type II planetary nebulae (PN). These spectra extend from 3600-9600 angstroms allowing us to use the [SIII] 9069 and 9532 angstrom lines to improve upon earlier sulfur abundance estimates. Considering a significant portion of sulfur in PN exists in the S(+2) ionization stage