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Sample records for abundance estimates based

  1. Accurate genome relative abundance estimation based on shotgun metagenomic reads.

    PubMed

    Xia, Li C; Cram, Jacob A; Chen, Ting; Fuhrman, Jed A; Sun, Fengzhu

    2011-01-01

    Accurate estimation of microbial community composition based on metagenomic sequencing data is fundamental for subsequent metagenomics analysis. Prevalent estimation methods are mainly based on directly summarizing alignment results or its variants; often result in biased and/or unstable estimates. We have developed a unified probabilistic framework (named GRAMMy) by explicitly modeling read assignment ambiguities, genome size biases and read distributions along the genomes. Maximum likelihood method is employed to compute Genome Relative Abundance of microbial communities using the Mixture Model theory (GRAMMy). GRAMMy has been demonstrated to give estimates that are accurate and robust across both simulated and real read benchmark datasets. We applied GRAMMy to a collection of 34 metagenomic read sets from four metagenomics projects and identified 99 frequent species (minimally 0.5% abundant in at least 50% of the data-sets) in the human gut samples. Our results show substantial improvements over previous studies, such as adjusting the over-estimated abundance for Bacteroides species for human gut samples, by providing a new reference-based strategy for metagenomic sample comparisons. GRAMMy can be used flexibly with many read assignment tools (mapping, alignment or composition-based) even with low-sensitivity mapping results from huge short-read datasets. It will be increasingly useful as an accurate and robust tool for abundance estimation with the growing size of read sets and the expanding database of reference genomes.

  2. Abundance estimation and conservation biology

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nichols, J.D.; MacKenzie, D.I.

    2004-01-01

    should be focused on relationships between demographic processes such as survival and recruitment, the two quantities responsible for changes in abundance, rather than simply on the magnitudes of these quantities. They describe a type of Jolly–Seber capture–recapture model that permits inference about the underlying relationship between per capita recruitment rates and survival rates (Link & Barker, this volume). Implementation used Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods and appeared to work well, yielding inferences about the relationship between recruitment and survival that were robust to selection of prior distribution. We believe that readers will find their arguments compelling, and we expect to see increased use of hierarchical modeling approaches in capture–recapture and related fields. Otto (presentation without paper) also recommended use of hierarchical models in analysis of multiple data sources dealing with population dynamics of North American mallards. He integrated survival inferences from ringing data, abundance information from aerial survey data, and recruitment information based on age ratios from a harvest survey. He used a Leslie matrix population projection model as an integrating framework and obtained estimates of breeding population size using all data.Otto’s approach also permitted inference about biases in estimated quantities. As with the work of Link & Barker (2004), we find Otto’s recommendation to use hierarchical models to integrate data from multiple sources to be very compelling. Alisauskas et al. (2004) report results of an analysis of capture–recapture data for a askatchewan population of white–winged scoters. They used the approach of Pradel (1996) to estimate population growth rate (See the PDF) directly. Estimates for 1975–1985 were quite low, but estimates for the recent period, 2000–2003,increased to values > 1. Parameter estimates for seniority, survival and per capita recruitment (Pradel, 1996) led to the

  3. Evaluating abundance estimate precision and the assumptions of a count-based index for small mammals

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wiewel, A.S.; Adams, A.A.Y.; Rodda, G.H.

    2009-01-01

    Conservation and management of small mammals requires reliable knowledge of population size. We investigated precision of markrecapture and removal abundance estimates generated from live-trapping and snap-trapping data collected at sites on Guam (n 7), Rota (n 4), Saipan (n 5), and Tinian (n 3), in the Mariana Islands. We also evaluated a common index, captures per unit effort (CPUE), as a predictor of abundance. In addition, we evaluated cost and time associated with implementing live-trapping and snap-trapping and compared species-specific capture rates of selected live- and snap-traps. For all species, markrecapture estimates were consistently more precise than removal estimates based on coefficients of variation and 95 confidence intervals. The predictive utility of CPUE was poor but improved with increasing sampling duration. Nonetheless, modeling of sampling data revealed that underlying assumptions critical to application of an index of abundance, such as constant capture probability across space, time, and individuals, were not met. Although snap-trapping was cheaper and faster than live-trapping, the time difference was negligible when site preparation time was considered. Rattus diardii spp. captures were greatest in Haguruma live-traps (Standard Trading Co., Honolulu, HI) and Victor snap-traps (Woodstream Corporation, Lititz, PA), whereas Suncus murinus and Mus musculus captures were greatest in Sherman live-traps (H. B. Sherman Traps, Inc., Tallahassee, FL) and Museum Special snap-traps (Woodstream Corporation). Although snap-trapping and CPUE may have utility after validation against more rigorous methods, validation should occur across the full range of study conditions. Resources required for this level of validation would likely be better allocated towards implementing rigorous and robust methods.

  4. Improving removal-based estimates of abundance by sampling a population of spatially distinct subpopulations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dorazio, R.M.; Jelks, H.L.; Jordan, F.

    2005-01-01

     A statistical modeling framework is described for estimating the abundances of spatially distinct subpopulations of animals surveyed using removal sampling. To illustrate this framework, hierarchical models are developed using the Poisson and negative-binomial distributions to model variation in abundance among subpopulations and using the beta distribution to model variation in capture probabilities. These models are fitted to the removal counts observed in a survey of a federally endangered fish species. The resulting estimates of abundance have similar or better precision than those computed using the conventional approach of analyzing the removal counts of each subpopulation separately. Extension of the hierarchical models to include spatial covariates of abundance is straightforward and may be used to identify important features of an animal's habitat or to predict the abundance of animals at unsampled locations.

  5. Effects of sampling conditions on DNA-based estimates of American black bear abundance

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Laufenberg, Jared S.; Van Manen, Frank T.; Clark, Joseph D.

    2013-01-01

    DNA-based capture-mark-recapture techniques are commonly used to estimate American black bear (Ursus americanus) population abundance (N). Although the technique is well established, many questions remain regarding study design. In particular, relationships among N, capture probability of heterogeneity mixtures A and B (pA and pB, respectively, or p, collectively), the proportion of each mixture (π), number of capture occasions (k), and probability of obtaining reliable estimates of N are not fully understood. We investigated these relationships using 1) an empirical dataset of DNA samples for which true N was unknown and 2) simulated datasets with known properties that represented a broader array of sampling conditions. For the empirical data analysis, we used the full closed population with heterogeneity data type in Program MARK to estimate N for a black bear population in Great Smoky Mountains National Park, Tennessee. We systematically reduced the number of those samples used in the analysis to evaluate the effect that changes in capture probabilities may have on parameter estimates. Model-averaged N for females and males were 161 (95% CI = 114–272) and 100 (95% CI = 74–167), respectively (pooled N = 261, 95% CI = 192–419), and the average weekly p was 0.09 for females and 0.12 for males. When we reduced the number of samples of the empirical data, support for heterogeneity models decreased. For the simulation analysis, we generated capture data with individual heterogeneity covering a range of sampling conditions commonly encountered in DNA-based capture-mark-recapture studies and examined the relationships between those conditions and accuracy (i.e., probability of obtaining an estimated N that is within 20% of true N), coverage (i.e., probability that 95% confidence interval includes true N), and precision (i.e., probability of obtaining a coefficient of variation ≤20%) of estimates using logistic regression. The capture probability

  6. Estimating stellar atmospheric parameters, absolute magnitudes and elemental abundances from the LAMOST spectra with Kernel-based principal component analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xiang, M.-S.; Liu, X.-W.; Shi, J.-R.; Yuan, H.-B.; Huang, Y.; Luo, A.-L.; Zhang, H.-W.; Zhao, Y.-H.; Zhang, J.-N.; Ren, J.-J.; Chen, B.-Q.; Wang, C.; Li, J.; Huo, Z.-Y.; Zhang, W.; Wang, J.-L.; Zhang, Y.; Hou, Y.-H.; Wang, Y.-F.

    2017-01-01

    Accurate determination of stellar atmospheric parameters and elemental abundances is crucial for Galactic archaeology via large-scale spectroscopic surveys. In this paper, we estimate stellar atmospheric parameters - effective temperature Teff, surface gravity log g and metallicity [Fe/H], absolute magnitudes MV and MKs, α-element to metal (and iron) abundance ratio [α/M] (and [α/Fe]), as well as carbon and nitrogen abundances [C/H] and [N/H] from the Large Sky Area Multi-Object Fibre Spectroscopic Telescope (LAMOST) spectra with a multivariate regression method based on kernel-based principal component analysis, using stars in common with other surveys (Hipparcos, Kepler, Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment) as training data sets. Both internal and external examinations indicate that given a spectral signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) better than 50, our method is capable of delivering stellar parameters with a precision of ˜100 K for Teff, ˜0.1 dex for log g, 0.3-0.4 mag for MV and MKs, 0.1 dex for [Fe/H], [C/H] and [N/H], and better than 0.05 dex for [α/M] ([α/Fe]). The results are satisfactory even for a spectral SNR of 20. The work presents first determinations of [C/H] and [N/H] abundances from a vast data set of LAMOST, and, to our knowledge, the first reported implementation of absolute magnitude estimation directly based on a vast data set of observed spectra. The derived stellar parameters for millions of stars from the LAMOST surveys will be publicly available in the form of value-added catalogues.

  7. Landscape ecology of eastern coyotes based on large-scale estimates of abundance.

    PubMed

    Kays, Roland W; Gompper, Matthew E; Ray, Justina C

    2008-06-01

    Since their range expansion into eastern North America in the mid-1900s, coyotes (Canis latrans) have become the region's top predator. Although widespread across the region, coyote adaptation to eastern forests and use of the broader landscape are not well understood. We studied the distribution and abundance of coyotes by collecting coyote feces from 54 sites across a diversity of landscapes in and around the Adirondacks of northern New York. We then genotyped feces with microsatellites and found a close correlation between the number of detected individuals and the total number of scats at a site. We created habitat models predicting coyote abundance using multi-scale vegetation and landscape data and ranked them with an information-theoretic model selection approach. These models allow us to reject the hypothesis that eastern forests are unsuitable habitat for coyotes as their abundance was positively correlated with forest cover and negatively correlated with measures of rural non-forest landscapes. However, measures of vegetation structure turned out to be better predictors of coyote abundance than generalized "forest vs. open" classification. The best supported models included those measures indicative of disturbed forest, especially more open canopies found in logged forests, and included natural edge habitats along water courses. These forest types are more productive than mature forests and presumably host more prey for coyotes. A second model with only variables that could be mapped across the region highlighted the lower density of coyotes in areas with high human settlement, as well as positive relationships with variables such as snowfall and lakes that may relate to increased numbers and vulnerability of deer. The resulting map predicts coyote density to be highest along the southwestern edge of the Adirondack State Park, including Tug Hill, and lowest in the mature forests and more rural areas of the central and eastern Adirondacks. Together, these

  8. Hydroacoustic estimates of fish abundance

    SciTech Connect

    Wilson, W.K.

    1991-03-01

    Hydroacoustics, as defined in the context of this report, is the use of a scientific sonar system to determine fish densities with respect to numbers and biomass. These two parameters provide a method of monitoring reservoir fish populations and detecting gross changes in the ecosystem. With respect to southeastern reservoirs, hydroacoustic surveys represent a new method of sampling open water areas and the best technology available. The advantages of this technology are large amounts of data can be collected in a relatively short period of time allowing improved statistical interpretation and data comparison, the pelagic (open water) zone can be sampled efficiently regardless of depth, and sampling is nondestructive and noninvasive with neither injury to the fish nor alteration of the environment. Hydroacoustics cannot provide species identification and related information on species composition or length/weight relationships. Also, sampling is limited to a minimum depth of ten feet which precludes the use of this equipment for sampling shallow shoreline areas. The objective of this study is to use hydroacoustic techniques to estimate fish standing stocks (i.e., numbers and biomass) in several areas of selected Tennessee Valley Reservoirs as part of a base level monitoring program to assess long-term changes in reservoir water quality.

  9. Occupancy as a surrogate for abundance estimation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    MacKenzie, D.I.; Nichols, J.D.

    2004-01-01

    In many monitoring programmes it may be prohibitively expensive to estimate the actual abundance of a bird species in a defined area, particularly at large spatial scales, or where birds occur at very low densities. Often it may be appropriate to consider the proportion of area occupied by the species as an alternative state variable. However, as with abundance estimation, issues of detectability must be taken into account in order to make accurate inferences: the non?detection of the species does not imply the species is genuinely absent. Here we review some recent modelling developments that permit unbiased estimation of the proportion of area occupied, colonization and local extinction probabilities. These methods allow for unequal sampling effort and enable covariate information on sampling locations to be incorporated. We also describe how these models could be extended to incorporate information from marked individuals, which would enable finer questions of population dynamics (such as turnover rate of nest sites by specific breeding pairs) to be addressed. We believe these models may be applicable to a wide range of bird species and may be useful for investigating various questions of ecological interest. For example, with respect to habitat quality, we might predict that a species is more likely to have higher local extinction probabilities, or higher turnover rates of specific breeding pairs, in poor quality habitats.

  10. Abundance estimation of solid and liquid mixtures in hyperspectral imagery with albedo-based and kernel-based methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rand, Robert S.; Resmini, Ronald G.; Allen, David W.

    2016-09-01

    This study investigates methods for characterizing materials that are mixtures of granular solids, or mixtures of liquids, which may be linear or non-linear. Linear mixtures of materials in a scene are often the result of areal mixing, where the pixel size of a sensor is relatively large so they contain patches of different materials within them. Non-linear mixtures are likely to occur with microscopic mixtures of solids, such as mixtures of powders, or mixtures of liquids, or wherever complex scattering of light occurs. This study considers two approaches for use as generalized methods for un-mixing pixels in a scene that may be linear or non-linear. One method is based on earlier studies that indicate non-linear mixtures in reflectance space are approximately linear in albedo space. This method converts reflectance to single-scattering albedo (SSA) according to Hapke theory assuming bidirectional scattering at nadir look angles and uses a constrained linear model on the computed albedo values. The other method is motivated by the same idea, but uses a kernel that seeks to capture the linear behavior of albedo in non-linear mixtures of materials. The behavior of the kernel method can be highly dependent on the value of a parameter, gamma, which provides flexibility for the kernel method to respond to both linear and non-linear phenomena. Our study pays particular attention to this parameter for responding to linear and non-linear mixtures. Laboratory experiments on both granular solids and liquid solutions are performed with scenes of hyperspectral data.

  11. Robust Abundance Estimation in Animal Abundance Surveys with Imperfect Detection

    EPA Science Inventory

    Surveys of animal abundance are central to the conservation and management of living natural resources. However, detection uncertainty complicates the sampling process of many species. One sampling method employed to deal with this problem is depletion (or removal) surveys in whi...

  12. Lincoln estimates of mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) abundance in North America

    PubMed Central

    Alisauskas, Ray T; Arnold, Todd W; Leafloor, James O; Otis, David L; Sedinger, James S

    2014-01-01

    Estimates of range-wide abundance, harvest, and harvest rate are fundamental for sound inferences about the role of exploitation in the dynamics of free-ranging wildlife populations, but reliability of existing survey methods for abundance estimation is rarely assessed using alternative approaches. North American mallard populations have been surveyed each spring since 1955 using internationally coordinated aerial surveys, but population size can also be estimated with Lincoln's method using banding and harvest data. We estimated late summer population size of adult and juvenile male and female mallards in western, midcontinent, and eastern North America using Lincoln's method of dividing (i) total estimated harvest, , by estimated harvest rate, , calculated as (ii) direct band recovery rate, , divided by the (iii) band reporting rate, . Our goal was to compare estimates based on Lincoln's method with traditional estimates based on aerial surveys. Lincoln estimates of adult males and females alive in the period June–September were 4.0 (range: 2.5–5.9), 1.8 (range: 0.6–3.0), and 1.8 (range: 1.3–2.7) times larger than respective aerial survey estimates for the western, midcontinent, and eastern mallard populations, and the two population estimates were only modestly correlated with each other (western: r = 0.70, 1993–2011; midcontinent: r = 0.54, 1961–2011; eastern: r = 0.50, 1993–2011). Higher Lincoln estimates are predictable given that the geographic scope of inference from Lincoln estimates is the entire population range, whereas sampling frames for aerial surveys are incomplete. Although each estimation method has a number of important potential biases, our review suggests that underestimation of total population size by aerial surveys is the most likely explanation. In addition to providing measures of total abundance, Lincoln's method provides estimates of fecundity and population sex ratio and could be used in integrated population

  13. Estimates of brown bear abundance on Kodiak Island, Alaska

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Barnes, V.G.; Smith, R.B.

    1998-01-01

    During 1987-94 we used capture-mark-resight (CMR) methodology and rates of observation (bears/hour and bears/100 km2) of unmarked brown bears (Ursus arctos middendorffi) during intensive aerial surveys (IAS) to estimate abundance of brown bears on Kodiak Island and to establish a baseline for monitoring population trends. CMR estimates were obtained on 3 study areas; density ranged from 216-234 bears/1,000 km2 for independent animals and 292-342 bears/1,000 km2 including dependent offspring. Rates of observation during IAS ranged from 1.4-5.4 independent bears/hour and 2.9-18.0 independent bears/100 km2. Density estimates for independent bears on each IAS area were obtained by dividing mean number of bears observed during replicate surveys by estimated sightability (based on CMR-derived sightability in areas with similar habitat. Brown bear abundance on 21 geographic units of Kodiak Island and 3 nearby islands was estimated by extrapolation from CMR and IAS data using comparisons of habitat characteristics and sport harvest information. Population estimates for independent and total bears were 1,800 and 2,600. The CMR and IAS procedures offer alternative means, depending on management objective and available resources, of measuring population trend of brown bears on Kodiak Island.

  14. Generalized estimators of avian abundance from count survey data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Royle, J. Andrew

    2004-01-01

    I consider modeling avian abundance from spatially referenced bird count data collected according to common protocols such as capture?recapture, multiple observer, removal sampling and simple point counts. Small sample sizes and large numbers of parameters have motivated many analyses that disregard the spatial indexing of the data, and thus do not provide an adequate treatment of spatial structure. I describe a general framework for modeling spatially replicated data that regards local abundance as a random process, motivated by the view that the set of spatially referenced local populations (at the sample locations) constitute a metapopulation. Under this view, attention can be focused on developing a model for the variation in local abundance independent of the sampling protocol being considered. The metapopulation model structure, when combined with the data generating model, define a simple hierarchical model that can be analyzed using conventional methods. The proposed modeling framework is completely general in the sense that broad classes of metapopulation models may be considered, site level covariates on detection and abundance may be considered, and estimates of abundance and related quantities may be obtained for sample locations, groups of locations, unsampled locations. Two brief examples are given, the first involving simple point counts, and the second based on temporary removal counts. Extension of these models to open systems is briefly discussed.

  15. Estimates of N2 Fixation Based on Differences in the Natural Abundance of 15N in Nodulating and Nonnodulating Isolines of Soybeans 1

    PubMed Central

    Kohl, Daniel H.; Shearer, Georgia; Harper, James E.

    1980-01-01

    Estimates of the contribution of biologically fixed N to the total N of nodulating soybeans (Glycine max (L) Merrill, variety Harosoy) grown under a variety of conditions were made from: (a) differences in N yield between nodulating and nonnodulating isolines; and (b) differences in 15N abundance between the two isolines. For plants grown in a greenhouse in nutrient-poor soil, both estimates showed a high level of N2 fixation; from 58 to 89% N fixed by differences in N yield and from 51 to 95% by differences in 15N abundance. Decreasing contributions of fixed N were estimated by both methods with increasing levels of added NO3−. Results of field experiments carried out over two years on an unamended highly fertile midwestern soil showed a modest level of N2 fixation by both methods (7.3 to 51% by differences in N yield, and 5.4 to 46% by differences in 15N abundance). When the soil was amended with ground corn cobs, both methods showed higher contributions of fixed N. The two methods of estimating N2 fixation gave similar results. Both appear to be semiquantitative and the standard errors of the estimates were about the same (6% on the average). PMID:16661394

  16. Toward Reliable Estimates of Abundance: Comparing Index Methods to Assess the Abundance of a Mammalian Predator

    PubMed Central

    Güthlin, Denise; Storch, Ilse; Küchenhoff, Helmut

    2014-01-01

    Due to time and financial constraints indices are often used to obtain landscape-scale estimates of relative species abundance. Using two different field methods and comparing the results can help to detect possible bias or a non monotonic relationship between the index and the true abundance, providing more reliable results. We used data obtained from camera traps and feces counts to independently estimate relative abundance of red foxes in the Black Forest, a forested landscape in southern Germany. Applying negative binomial regression models, we identified landscape parameters that influence red fox abundance, which we then used to predict relative red fox abundance. We compared the estimated regression coefficients of the landscape parameters and the predicted abundance of the two methods. Further, we compared the costs and the precision of the two field methods. The predicted relative abundances were similar between the two methods, suggesting that the two indices were closely related to the true abundance of red foxes. For both methods, landscape diversity and edge density best described differences in the indices and had positive estimated effects on the relative fox abundance. In our study the costs of each method were of similar magnitude, but the sample size obtained from the feces counts (262 transects) was larger than the camera trap sample size (88 camera locations). The precision of the camera traps was lower than the precision of the feces counts. The approach we applied can be used as a framework to compare and combine the results of two or more different field methods to estimate abundance and by this enhance the reliability of the result. PMID:24743565

  17. Toward reliable estimates of abundance: comparing index methods to assess the abundance of a Mammalian predator.

    PubMed

    Güthlin, Denise; Storch, Ilse; Küchenhoff, Helmut

    2014-01-01

    Due to time and financial constraints indices are often used to obtain landscape-scale estimates of relative species abundance. Using two different field methods and comparing the results can help to detect possible bias or a non monotonic relationship between the index and the true abundance, providing more reliable results. We used data obtained from camera traps and feces counts to independently estimate relative abundance of red foxes in the Black Forest, a forested landscape in southern Germany. Applying negative binomial regression models, we identified landscape parameters that influence red fox abundance, which we then used to predict relative red fox abundance. We compared the estimated regression coefficients of the landscape parameters and the predicted abundance of the two methods. Further, we compared the costs and the precision of the two field methods. The predicted relative abundances were similar between the two methods, suggesting that the two indices were closely related to the true abundance of red foxes. For both methods, landscape diversity and edge density best described differences in the indices and had positive estimated effects on the relative fox abundance. In our study the costs of each method were of similar magnitude, but the sample size obtained from the feces counts (262 transects) was larger than the camera trap sample size (88 camera locations). The precision of the camera traps was lower than the precision of the feces counts. The approach we applied can be used as a framework to compare and combine the results of two or more different field methods to estimate abundance and by this enhance the reliability of the result.

  18. Metagenomic abundance estimation and diagnostic testing on species level

    PubMed Central

    Lindner, Martin S.; Renard, Bernhard Y.

    2013-01-01

    One goal of sequencing-based metagenomic community analysis is the quantitative taxonomic assessment of microbial community compositions. In particular, relative quantification of taxons is of high relevance for metagenomic diagnostics or microbial community comparison. However, the majority of existing approaches quantify at low resolution (e.g. at phylum level), rely on the existence of special genes (e.g. 16S), or have severe problems discerning species with highly similar genome sequences. Yet, problems as metagenomic diagnostics require accurate quantification on species level. We developed Genome Abundance Similarity Correction (GASiC), a method to estimate true genome abundances via read alignment by considering reference genome similarities in a non-negative LASSO approach. We demonstrate GASiC’s superior performance over existing methods on simulated benchmark data as well as on real data. In addition, we present applications to datasets of both bacterial DNA and viral RNA source. We further discuss our approach as an alternative to PCR-based DNA quantification. PMID:22941661

  19. Evaluating noninvasive genetic sampling techniques to estimate large carnivore abundance.

    PubMed

    Mumma, Matthew A; Zieminski, Chris; Fuller, Todd K; Mahoney, Shane P; Waits, Lisette P

    2015-09-01

    Monitoring large carnivores is difficult because of intrinsically low densities and can be dangerous if physical capture is required. Noninvasive genetic sampling (NGS) is a safe and cost-effective alternative to physical capture. We evaluated the utility of two NGS methods (scat detection dogs and hair sampling) to obtain genetic samples for abundance estimation of coyotes, black bears and Canada lynx in three areas of Newfoundland, Canada. We calculated abundance estimates using program capwire, compared sampling costs, and the cost/sample for each method relative to species and study site, and performed simulations to determine the sampling intensity necessary to achieve abundance estimates with coefficients of variation (CV) of <10%. Scat sampling was effective for both coyotes and bears and hair snags effectively sampled bears in two of three study sites. Rub pads were ineffective in sampling coyotes and lynx. The precision of abundance estimates was dependent upon the number of captures/individual. Our simulations suggested that ~3.4 captures/individual will result in a < 10% CV for abundance estimates when populations are small (23-39), but fewer captures/individual may be sufficient for larger populations. We found scat sampling was more cost-effective for sampling multiple species, but suggest that hair sampling may be less expensive at study sites with limited road access for bears. Given the dependence of sampling scheme on species and study site, the optimal sampling scheme is likely to be study-specific warranting pilot studies in most circumstances.

  20. Estimating site occupancy and abundance using indirect detection indices

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Stanley, T.R.; Royle, J. Andrew

    2005-01-01

    Knowledge of factors influencing animal distribution and abundance is essential in many areas of ecological research, management, and policy-making. Because common methods for modeling and estimating abundance (e.g., capture-recapture, distance sampling) are sometimes not practical for large areas or elusive species, indices are sometimes used as surrogate measures of abundance. We present an extension of the Royle and Nichols (2003) generalization of the MacKenzie et al. (2002) site-occupancy model that incorporates length of the sampling interval into the, model for detection probability. As a result, we obtain a modeling framework that shows how useful information can be extracted from a class of index methods we call indirect detection indices (IDIs). Examples of IDIs include scent station, tracking tube, snow track, tracking plate, and hair snare surveys. Our model is maximum likelihood, and it can be used to estimate site occupancy and model factors influencing patterns of occupancy and abundance in space. Under certain circumstances, it can also be used to estimate abundance. We evaluated model properties using Monte Carlo simulations and illustrate the method with tracking tube and scent station data. We believe this model will be a useful tool for determining factors that influence animal distribution and abundance.

  1. Incorporating availability for detection in estimates of bird abundance

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Diefenbach, D.R.; Marshall, M.R.; Mattice, J.A.; Brauning, D.W.

    2007-01-01

    Several bird-survey methods have been proposed that provide an estimated detection probability so that bird-count statistics can be used to estimate bird abundance. However, some of these estimators adjust counts of birds observed by the probability that a bird is detected and assume that all birds are available to be detected at the time of the survey. We marked male Henslow's Sparrows (Ammodramus henslowii) and Grasshopper Sparrows (A. savannarum) and monitored their behavior during May-July 2002 and 2003 to estimate the proportion of time they were available for detection. We found that the availability of Henslow's Sparrows declined in late June to <10% for 5- or 10-min point counts when a male had to sing and be visible to the observer; but during 20 May-19 June, males were available for detection 39.1% (SD = 27.3) of the time for 5-min point counts and 43.9% (SD = 28.9) of the time for 10-min point counts (n = 54). We detected no temporal changes in availability for Grasshopper Sparrows, but estimated availability to be much lower for 5-min point counts (10.3%, SD = 12.2) than for 10-min point counts (19.2%, SD = 22.3) when males had to be visible and sing during the sampling period (n = 80). For distance sampling, we estimated the availability of Henslow's Sparrows to be 44.2% (SD = 29.0) and the availability of Grasshopper Sparrows to be 20.6% (SD = 23.5). We show how our estimates of availability can be incorporated in the abundance and variance estimators for distance sampling and modify the abundance and variance estimators for the double-observer method. Methods that directly estimate availability from bird counts but also incorporate detection probabilities need further development and will be important for obtaining unbiased estimates of abundance for these species. ?? The American Ornithologists' Union, 2007.

  2. Estimating abundance in the presence of species uncertainty

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Chambert, Thierry A; Hossack, Blake R.; Fishback, LeeAnn; Davenport, Jon M.

    2016-01-01

    1.N-mixture models have become a popular method for estimating abundance of free-ranging animals that are not marked or identified individually. These models have been used on count data for single species that can be identified with certainty. However, co-occurring species often look similar during one or more life stages, making it difficult to assign species for all recorded captures. This uncertainty creates problems for estimating species-specific abundance and it can often limit life stages to which we can make inference. 2.We present a new extension of N-mixture models that accounts for species uncertainty. In addition to estimating site-specific abundances and detection probabilities, this model allows estimating probability of correct assignment of species identity. We implement this hierarchical model in a Bayesian framework and provide all code for running the model in BUGS-language programs. 3.We present an application of the model on count data from two sympatric freshwater fishes, the brook stickleback (Culaea inconstans) and the ninespine stickleback (Pungitius pungitius), ad illustrate implementation of covariate effects (habitat characteristics). In addition, we used a simulation study to validate the model and illustrate potential sample size issues. We also compared, for both real and simulated data, estimates provided by our model to those obtained by a simple N-mixture model when captures of unknown species identification were discarded. In the latter case, abundance estimates appeared highly biased and very imprecise, while our new model provided unbiased estimates with higher precision. 4.This extension of the N-mixture model should be useful for a wide variety of studies and taxa, as species uncertainty is a common issue. It should notably help improve investigation of abundance and vital rate characteristics of organisms’ early life stages, which are sometimes more difficult to identify than adults.

  3. A collaborative approach for estimating terrestrial wildlife abundance

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ransom, Jason I.; Kaczensky, Petra; Lubow, Bruce C.; Ganbaatar, Oyunsaikhan; Altansukh, Nanjid

    2012-01-01

    Accurately estimating abundance of wildlife is critical for establishing effective conservation and management strategies. Aerial methodologies for estimating abundance are common in developed countries, but they are often impractical for remote areas of developing countries where many of the world's endangered and threatened fauna exist. The alternative terrestrial methodologies can be constrained by limitations on access, technology, and human resources, and have rarely been comprehensively conducted for large terrestrial mammals at landscape scales. We attempted to overcome these problems by incorporating local peoples into a simultaneous point count of Asiatic wild ass (Equus hemionus) and goitered gazelle (Gazella subgutturosa) across the Great Gobi B Strictly Protected Area, Mongolia. Paired observers collected abundance and covariate metrics at 50 observation points and we estimated population sizes using distance sampling theory, but also assessed individual observer error to examine potential bias introduced by the large number of minimally trained observers. We estimated 5671 (95% CI = 3611–8907) wild asses and 5909 (95% CI = 3762–9279) gazelle inhabited the 11,027 km2 study area at the time of our survey and found that the methodology developed was robust at absorbing the logistical challenges and wide range of observer abilities. This initiative serves as a functional model for estimating terrestrial wildlife abundance while integrating local people into scientific and conservation projects. This, in turn, creates vested interest in conservation by the people who are most influential in, and most affected by, the outcomes.

  4. The effects of acoustic misclassification on cetacean species abundance estimation.

    PubMed

    Caillat, Marjolaine; Thomas, Len; Gillespie, Douglas

    2013-09-01

    To estimate the density or abundance of a cetacean species using acoustic detection data, it is necessary to correctly identify the species that are detected. Developing an automated species classifier with 100% correct classification rate for any species is likely to stay out of reach. It is therefore necessary to consider the effect of misidentified detections on the number of observed data and consequently on abundance or density estimation, and develop methods to cope with these misidentifications. If misclassification rates are known, it is possible to estimate the true numbers of detected calls without bias. However, misclassification and uncertainties in the level of misclassification increase the variance of the estimates. If the true numbers of calls from different species are similar, then a small amount of misclassification between species and a small amount of uncertainty around the classification probabilities does not have an overly detrimental effect on the overall variance. However, if there is a difference in the encounter rate between species calls and/or a large amount of uncertainty in misclassification rates, then the variance of the estimates becomes very large and this dramatically increases the variance of the final abundance estimate.

  5. New aerial survey and hierarchical model to estimate manatee abundance

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Langimm, Cahterine A.; Dorazio, Robert M.; Stith, Bradley M.; Doyle, Terry J.

    2011-01-01

    Monitoring the response of endangered and protected species to hydrological restoration is a major component of the adaptive management framework of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan. The endangered Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) lives at the marine-freshwater interface in southwest Florida and is likely to be affected by hydrologic restoration. To provide managers with prerestoration information on distribution and abundance for postrestoration comparison, we developed and implemented a new aerial survey design and hierarchical statistical model to estimate and map abundance of manatees as a function of patch-specific habitat characteristics, indicative of manatee requirements for offshore forage (seagrass), inland fresh drinking water, and warm-water winter refuge. We estimated the number of groups of manatees from dual-observer counts and estimated the number of individuals within groups by removal sampling. Our model is unique in that we jointly analyzed group and individual counts using assumptions that allow probabilities of group detection to depend on group size. Ours is the first analysis of manatee aerial surveys to model spatial and temporal abundance of manatees in association with habitat type while accounting for imperfect detection. We conducted the study in the Ten Thousand Islands area of southwestern Florida, USA, which was expected to be affected by the Picayune Strand Restoration Project to restore hydrology altered for a failed real-estate development. We conducted 11 surveys in 2006, spanning the cold, dry season and warm, wet season. To examine short-term and seasonal changes in distribution we flew paired surveys 1–2 days apart within a given month during the year. Manatees were sparsely distributed across the landscape in small groups. Probability of detection of a group increased with group size; the magnitude of the relationship between group size and detection probability varied among surveys. Probability

  6. Incorporating 16S gene copy number information improves estimates of microbial diversity and abundance.

    PubMed

    Kembel, Steven W; Wu, Martin; Eisen, Jonathan A; Green, Jessica L

    2012-01-01

    The abundance of different SSU rRNA ("16S") gene sequences in environmental samples is widely used in studies of microbial ecology as a measure of microbial community structure and diversity. However, the genomic copy number of the 16S gene varies greatly - from one in many species to up to 15 in some bacteria and to hundreds in some microbial eukaryotes. As a result of this variation the relative abundance of 16S genes in environmental samples can be attributed both to variation in the relative abundance of different organisms, and to variation in genomic 16S copy number among those organisms. Despite this fact, many studies assume that the abundance of 16S gene sequences is a surrogate measure of the relative abundance of the organisms containing those sequences. Here we present a method that uses data on sequences and genomic copy number of 16S genes along with phylogenetic placement and ancestral state estimation to estimate organismal abundances from environmental DNA sequence data. We use theory and simulations to demonstrate that 16S genomic copy number can be accurately estimated from the short reads typically obtained from high-throughput environmental sequencing of the 16S gene, and that organismal abundances in microbial communities are more strongly correlated with estimated abundances obtained from our method than with gene abundances. We re-analyze several published empirical data sets and demonstrate that the use of gene abundance versus estimated organismal abundance can lead to different inferences about community diversity and structure and the identity of the dominant taxa in microbial communities. Our approach will allow microbial ecologists to make more accurate inferences about microbial diversity and abundance based on 16S sequence data.

  7. Dynamic N-occupancy models: estimating demographic rates and local abundance from detection-nondetection data.

    PubMed

    Rossman, Sam; Yackulic, Charles B; Saunders, Sarah P; Reid, Janice; Davis, Ray; Zipkin, Elise F

    2016-12-01

    Occupancy modeling is a widely used analytical technique for assessing species distributions and range dynamics. However, occupancy analyses frequently ignore variation in abundance of occupied sites, even though site abundances affect many of the parameters being estimated (e.g., extinction, colonization, detection probability). We introduce a new model ("dynamic N-occupancy") capable of providing accurate estimates of local abundance, population gains (reproduction/immigration), and apparent survival probabilities while accounting for imperfect detection using only detection/nondetection data. Our model utilizes heterogeneity in detection based on variations in site abundances to estimate latent demographic rates via a dynamic N-mixture modeling framework. We validate our model using simulations across a wide range of values and examine the data requirements, including the number of years and survey sites needed, for unbiased and precise estimation of parameters. We apply our model to estimate spatiotemporal heterogeneity in abundances of barred owls (Strix varia) within a recently invaded region in Oregon (USA). Estimates of apparent survival and population gains are consistent with those from a nearby radio-tracking study and elucidate how barred owl abundances have increased dramatically over time. The dynamic N-occupancy model greatly improves inferences on individual-level population processes from occupancy data by explicitly modeling the latent population structure.

  8. A comparative study of iron abundance estimation methods: Application to the western nearside of the Moon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bhatt, Megha; Mall, Urs; Wöhler, Christian; Grumpe, Arne; Bugiolacchi, Roberto

    2015-03-01

    The FeO weight percentage (wt.%) abundance of the Moon's western nearside (55°S-55°N and 5°E-40°W) is estimated using data from the InfraRed Spectrometer-2 (SIR-2) and the Moon Mineralogy Mapper (M3). In this study, we modified an FeO abundance estimation algorithm (Bhatt, M., Mall, U., Bugiolacchi, R., McKenna-Lawlor, S., Banaszkiewicz, M., Nathues, A., Ullaland, K. [2012]. Icarus 220, 51-64) which relies exclusively on the 2-μm absorption band parameters. The modified FeO abundance estimation algorithm and the regression-based elemental abundance estimation algorithm (Wöhler, C., Grumpe, A., Berezhnoy, A., Bhatt, M.U., Mall, U. [2014]. Icarus 235, 86-122) which is based on the 1-μm and 2-μm absorption band parameters is applied to the M3 data. We have compared results obtained from these two modified algorithms with a previously published Clementine's FeO wt.% map (Lucey, P.G., Blewett, D.T., Jolliff, B.L. [2000]. J. Geophys. Res. 105, 20297-20306). The effects of topography and space weathering on FeO wt.% estimates have been successfully minimized using the modified algorithm based on the 2-μm absorption band parameters. Thus, this algorithm can be successfully applied at middle to high latitudes. Furthermore, a correction for TiO2 is applied to the FeO abundance estimation algorithm based on the 2-μm absorption band parameters using the M3 data. Our comparative study shows a good correspondence between the three algorithms discussed. There are two locations: the crater Tycho and the region around Rima Bode which show major discrepancies. Our modified algorithm based on the 2-μm absorption parameters predicts 3-4 wt.% less FeO for the ray system of Tycho than for the surrounding region. The average iron abundance for the lunar highlands is about 6 wt.% and for the mare regions is about 16 wt.% using the regression-based elemental abundance estimation algorithm and the algorithm based on the 2-μm absorption parameters. This result is consistent with

  9. Estimating abundance of mountain lions from unstructured spatial sampling

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Russell, Robin E.; Royle, J. Andrew; Desimone, Richard; Schwartz, Michael K.; Edwards, Victoria L.; Pilgrim, Kristy P.; Mckelvey, Kevin S.

    2012-01-01

    Mountain lions (Puma concolor) are often difficult to monitor because of their low capture probabilities, extensive movements, and large territories. Methods for estimating the abundance of this species are needed to assess population status, determine harvest levels, evaluate the impacts of management actions on populations, and derive conservation and management strategies. Traditional mark–recapture methods do not explicitly account for differences in individual capture probabilities due to the spatial distribution of individuals in relation to survey effort (or trap locations). However, recent advances in the analysis of capture–recapture data have produced methods estimating abundance and density of animals from spatially explicit capture–recapture data that account for heterogeneity in capture probabilities due to the spatial organization of individuals and traps. We adapt recently developed spatial capture–recapture models to estimate density and abundance of mountain lions in western Montana. Volunteers and state agency personnel collected mountain lion DNA samples in portions of the Blackfoot drainage (7,908 km2) in west-central Montana using 2 methods: snow back-tracking mountain lion tracks to collect hair samples and biopsy darting treed mountain lions to obtain tissue samples. Overall, we recorded 72 individual capture events, including captures both with and without tissue sample collection and hair samples resulting in the identification of 50 individual mountain lions (30 females, 19 males, and 1 unknown sex individual). We estimated lion densities from 8 models containing effects of distance, sex, and survey effort on detection probability. Our population density estimates ranged from a minimum of 3.7 mountain lions/100 km2 (95% Cl 2.3–5.7) under the distance only model (including only an effect of distance on detection probability) to 6.7 (95% Cl 3.1–11.0) under the full model (including effects of distance, sex, survey effort, and

  10. Evaluation of marked-recapture for estimating striped skunk abundance

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Greenwood, R.J.; Sargeant, A.B.; Johnson, D.H.

    1985-01-01

    The mark-recapture method for estimating striped skunk (Mephitis mephitis) abundance was evaluated by systematically livetrapping a radio-equipped population on a 31.4-km2 study area in North Dakota during late April of 1977 and 1978. The study population was 10 females and 13 males in 1977 and 20 females and 8 males in 1978. Skunks were almost exclusively nocturnal. Males traveled greater nightly distances than females (3.3 vs. 2.6 km, P < 0.05) and had larger home ranges (308 vs. 242 ha) although not significantly so. Increased windchill reduced night-time activity. The population was demographically but not geographically closed. Frequency of capture was positively correlated with time skunks spent on the study area. Little variation in capture probabilities was found among trap-nights. Skunks exhibited neither trap-proneness nor shyness. Capture rates in 1977 were higher for males than for females; the reverse occurred in 1978. Variation in individual capture rates was indicated among males in 1977 and among females in 1978. Ten estimators produced generally similar results, but all underestimated true population size. Underestimation was a function of the number of untrapped skunks, primarily those that spent limited time on the study area. The jackknife method produced the best estimates of skunk abundance.

  11. Estimating Culicoides sonorensis biting midge abundance using digital image analysis.

    PubMed

    Osborne, C J; Mayo, C E; Mullens, B A; Maclachlan, N J

    2014-12-01

    ImageJ is an open-source software tool used for a variety of scientific objectives including cell counting, shape analysis and image correction. This technology has previously been used to estimate mosquito abundance in surveillance efforts. However, the utility of this application for estimating abundance or parity in the surveillance of Culicoides spp. (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) has not yet been tested. Culicoides sonorensis (Wirth and Jones), a biting midge often measuring 2.0-2.5 mm in length, is an economically important vector of ruminant arboviruses in California. Current surveillance methods use visual sorting for the characteristics of midges and are very time-intensive for large studies. This project tested the utility of ImageJ as a tool to assist in gross trap enumeration as well as in parity analysis of C. sonorensis in comparison with traditional visual methods of enumeration using a dissecting microscope. Results confirmed that automated counting of midges is a reliable means of approximating midge numbers under certain conditions. Further evaluation confirmed accurate and time-efficient parity analysis in comparison with hand sorting. The ImageJ software shows promise as a tool that can assist and expedite C. sonorensis surveillance. Further, these methods may be useful in other insect surveillance activities.

  12. Estimation of lunar major elemental abundances in Chang'E-3 landing site based on Active Particle-induced X-ray Spectrometer (APXS)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Jian; Wang, Xianmin

    2015-09-01

    Elemental abundance provides an effective vehicle to understand lunar petrologic characteristics and evolutional history. The APXS mounted on the Yutu rover provides a valuable opportunity to determine the major elemental abundances in lunar soil within a short distance. In this study, we processed the APXS spectra including energy calibration, dead time correction and nonlinear least-squares fitting, and determined the abundances of the lunar major elements using the fundamental parameter method. In the calculation of X-ray fluorescence yield, a finite element method (FEM) was employed to improve the accuracy. The major elemental abundances derived from Chang'E-3 (CE-3) APXS possess a good consistency with the result of LP-GRS (Lunar Prospector gamma-ray spectrometer) data in the landing region. Compared with the chemical composition of the returned lunar rock samples, we draw the conclusion that the lunar soils in CE-3 landing site are fragments of mare basalts. Our conclusion is supported by the geological map of Mare Imbrium.

  13. Negative binomial models for abundance estimation of multiple closed populations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Boyce, Mark S.; MacKenzie, Darry I.; Manly, Bryan F.J.; Haroldson, Mark A.; Moody, David W.

    2001-01-01

    Counts of uniquely identified individuals in a population offer opportunities to estimate abundance. However, for various reasons such counts may be burdened by heterogeneity in the probability of being detected. Theoretical arguments and empirical evidence demonstrate that the negative binomial distribution (NBD) is a useful characterization for counts from biological populations with heterogeneity. We propose a method that focuses on estimating multiple populations by simultaneously using a suite of models derived from the NBD. We used this approach to estimate the number of female grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) with cubs-of-the-year in the Yellowstone ecosystem, for each year, 1986-1998. Akaike's Information Criteria (AIC) indicated that a negative binomial model with a constant level of heterogeneity across all years was best for characterizing the sighting frequencies of female grizzly bears. A lack-of-fit test indicated the model adequately described the collected data. Bootstrap techniques were used to estimate standard errors and 95% confidence intervals. We provide a Monte Carlo technique, which confirms that the Yellowstone ecosystem grizzly bear population increased during the period 1986-1998.

  14. Estimating the abundance of clustered animal population by using adaptive cluster sampling and negative binomial distribution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bo, Yizhou; Shifa, Naima

    2013-09-01

    An estimator for finding the abundance of a rare, clustered and mobile population has been introduced. This model is based on adaptive cluster sampling (ACS) to identify the location of the population and negative binomial distribution to estimate the total in each site. To identify the location of the population we consider both sampling with replacement (WR) and sampling without replacement (WOR). Some mathematical properties of the model are also developed.

  15. Rock type identification and abundance estimation from hyperspectral analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feng, Jilu

    This study explores the usefulness of hyperspectral data to discriminate rock units and estimate the abundance of sulfides in rocks. Airborne visible-near infrared (VIS-NIR) hyperspectral data collected from northern Cape Smith, Quebec and laboratory thermal infrared reflectance (TIR) data measured on rock samples from eight different mines in the Sudbury Basin, Ontario are involved in the analysis. The study addressed four different geological application scenarios with the aim of retrieving useful lithological information from rock spectra while minimizing the influence of varying environmental factors. The research first examines the effects of topography on the selection of rock endmembers from airborne VIS_NIR spectra and demonstrates how a topographic correction process can improve the discrimination of rock units. It demonstrates that traditional ways of selecting spectral endmembers from hyperspectral data for areas of rugged terrain cannot provide representative rock unit signatures. The second part of the research targeted the mapping of wall rock in an underground environment using TIR spectra. Rock samples from mines of the Sudbury Basin in Ontario were measured using naturally broken surfaces both dry and wet to address environmental conditions encountered underground. An innovative method applying a spectral angle mapper on the 2nd derivative of rock spectra from 700--1300 cm-1 was proved to be robust to remove the effect of liquid water, local geometry and disseminated sulfide ores while preserving diagnostic rock signatures for mapping. The study then focuses on retrieving sulfide information from TIR to estimate ore (total sulfide abundance) grade on naturally broken rock faces and separate ore-bearing rocks from their host rocks in an underground environment regardless of rock types. An important finding is that reflectance at 1319 cm -1, where most silicate rocks demonstrate low reflectance, is related to total sulfide concentration in rocks

  16. Helium abundances on the moon: Assumptions and estimates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Taylor, Lawrence A.

    Nuclear energy is a highly desirable source of energy, and He-3 is the most prized of the fusion reactants. As the Wisconsin Group has emphasized, He-3 may be the only true economic ore on the Moon. The lack of a shielding atmosphere on the Moon permits solar-wind alpha particles to impinge upon the lunar regolith and become implanted into the various solid components. In particular, large quantities of helium (5 to 50 ppm) are presented. The measured parameter of Is/FeO, a direct indicator of maturity and exposure age, can be used as a first approximation to predict the abundances of many solar-wind components in the soils. However, because ilmenite has a much higher retentivity for helium than the other phases, the TiO2 contents of the soils are better indicators of helium contents (Taylor, Space 90). High-Ti mare bassalt regions, such as at the Apollo 17 locale, appear to be the best areas for He mining (15 to 50 ppm HeT), versus 3 to 9 ppm in the Highlands. However, the relationships between Is/FeO, TiO2 and He-3 contents are complicated - e.g., many of the most He-rich soils are immature to submature. The amount of He-3 in the regolith of the moon is estimated at 220,000 tons in the outer 2 m of the Maria.

  17. Evaluation of an aerial survey to estimate abundance of wintering ducks in Mississippi

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Pearse, A.T.; Dinsmore, S.J.; Kaminski, R.M.; Reinecke, K.J.

    2008-01-01

    Researchers have successfully designed aerial surveys that provided precise estimates of wintering populations of ducks over large physiographic regions, yet few conservation agencies have adopted these probability-based sampling designs for their surveys. We designed and evaluated an aerial survey to estimate abundance of wintering mallards {Anas platyrhynchos), dabbling ducks (tribe Anatini) other than mallards, diving ducks (tribes Aythini, Mergini, and Oxyurini), and total ducks in western Mississippi, USA. We used design-based sampling of fixed width transects to estimate population indices (I??), and we used model-based methods to correct population indices for visibility bias and estimate population abundance (N??) for 14 surveys during winters 2002-2004. Correcting for bias increased estimates of mallards, other dabbling ducks, and diving ducks by an average of 40-48% among all surveys and contributed 48-61% of the estimated variance of N??. However, mean-squared errors were consistently less for N?? than I??. Estimates of N?? met our goals for precision (CV ??? 15%) in 7 of 14 surveys for mallards, 5 surveys for other dabbling ducks, no surveys for diving ducks, and 10 surveys for total ducks. Generally, we estimated more mallards and other dabbling ducks in mid- and late winter (Jan-Feb) than early winter (Nov-Dec) and determined that population indices from the late 1980s were nearly 3 times greater than those from our study. We developed a method to display relative densities of ducks spatially as an additional application of survey data. Our study advanced methods of estimating abundance of wintering waterfowl, and we recommend this design for continued monitoring of wintering ducks in western Mississippi and similar physiographic regions.

  18. Evaluation of an aerial survey to estimate abundance of wintering ducks in Mississippi

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Pearse, A.T.; Dinsmore, S.J.; Kaminski, R.M.; Reinecke, K.J.

    2008-01-01

    Researchers have successfully designed aerial surveys that provided precise estimates of wintering populations of ducks over large physiographic regions, yet few conservation agencies have adopted these probability-based sampling designs for their surveys. We designed and evaluated an aerial survey to estimate abundance of wintering mallards {Anas platyrhynchos), dabbling ducks (tribe Anatini) other than mallards, diving ducks (tribes Aythini, Mergini, and Oxyurini), and total ducks in western Mississippi, USA. We used design-based sampling of fixed width transects to estimate population indices (I?), and we used model-based methods to correct population indices for visibility bias and estimate population abundance (N?) for 14 surveys during winters 2002-2004. Correcting for bias increased estimates of mallards, other dabbling ducks, and diving ducks by an average of 40-48% among all surveys and contributed 48-61% of the estimated variance of N?. However, mean-squared errors were consistently less for N? than I?. Estimates of N? met our goals for precision (CV < 15%) in 7 of 14 surveys for mallards, 5 surveys for other dabbling ducks, no surveys for diving ducks, and 10 surveys for total ducks. Generally, we estimated more mallards and other dabbling ducks in mid- and late winter (Jan-Feb) than early winter (Nov-Dec) and determined that population indices from the late 1980s were nearly 3 times greater than those from our study. We developed a method to display relative densities of ducks spatially as an additional application of survey data. Our study advanced methods of estimating abundance of wintering waterfowl, and we recommend this design for continued monitoring of wintering ducks in western Mississippi and similar physiographic regions.

  19. Optimal sampling design for estimating spatial distribution and abundance of a freshwater mussel population

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Pooler, P.S.; Smith, D.R.

    2005-01-01

    We compared the ability of simple random sampling (SRS) and a variety of systematic sampling (SYS) designs to estimate abundance, quantify spatial clustering, and predict spatial distribution of freshwater mussels. Sampling simulations were conducted using data obtained from a census of freshwater mussels in a 40 X 33 m section of the Cacapon River near Capon Bridge, West Virginia, and from a simulated spatially random population generated to have the same abundance as the real population. Sampling units that were 0.25 m 2 gave more accurate and precise abundance estimates and generally better spatial predictions than 1-m2 sampling units. Systematic sampling with ???2 random starts was more efficient than SRS. Estimates of abundance based on SYS were more accurate when the distance between sampling units across the stream was less than or equal to the distance between sampling units along the stream. Three measures for quantifying spatial clustering were examined: Hopkins Statistic, the Clumping Index, and Morisita's Index. Morisita's Index was the most reliable, and the Hopkins Statistic was prone to false rejection of complete spatial randomness. SYS designs with units spaced equally across and up stream provided the most accurate predictions when estimating the spatial distribution by kriging. Our research indicates that SYS designs with sampling units equally spaced both across and along the stream would be appropriate for sampling freshwater mussels even if no information about the true underlying spatial distribution of the population were available to guide the design choice. ?? 2005 by The North American Benthological Society.

  20. Using spatiotemporal statistical models to estimate animal abundance and infer ecological dynamics from survey counts

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Conn, Paul B.; Johnson, Devin S.; Ver Hoef, Jay M.; Hooten, Mevin B.; London, Joshua M.; Boveng, Peter L.

    2015-01-01

    Ecologists often fit models to survey data to estimate and explain variation in animal abundance. Such models typically require that animal density remains constant across the landscape where sampling is being conducted, a potentially problematic assumption for animals inhabiting dynamic landscapes or otherwise exhibiting considerable spatiotemporal variation in density. We review several concepts from the burgeoning literature on spatiotemporal statistical models, including the nature of the temporal structure (i.e., descriptive or dynamical) and strategies for dimension reduction to promote computational tractability. We also review several features as they specifically relate to abundance estimation, including boundary conditions, population closure, choice of link function, and extrapolation of predicted relationships to unsampled areas. We then compare a suite of novel and existing spatiotemporal hierarchical models for animal count data that permit animal density to vary over space and time, including formulations motivated by resource selection and allowing for closed populations. We gauge the relative performance (bias, precision, computational demands) of alternative spatiotemporal models when confronted with simulated and real data sets from dynamic animal populations. For the latter, we analyze spotted seal (Phoca largha) counts from an aerial survey of the Bering Sea where the quantity and quality of suitable habitat (sea ice) changed dramatically while surveys were being conducted. Simulation analyses suggested that multiple types of spatiotemporal models provide reasonable inference (low positive bias, high precision) about animal abundance, but have potential for overestimating precision. Analysis of spotted seal data indicated that several model formulations, including those based on a log-Gaussian Cox process, had a tendency to overestimate abundance. By contrast, a model that included a population closure assumption and a scale prior on total

  1. Importance of accounting for detection heterogeneity when estimating abundance: the case of French wolves.

    PubMed

    Cubaynes, Sarah; Pradel, Roger; Choquet, Rémi; Duchamp, Christophe; Gaillard, Jean-Michel; Lebreton, Jean-Dominique; Marboutin, Eric; Miquel, Christian; Reboulet, Anne-Marie; Poillot, Carole; Taberlet, Pierre; Gimenez, Olivier

    2010-04-01

    Assessing conservation strategies requires reliable estimates of abundance. Because detecting all individuals is most often impossible in free-ranging populations, estimation procedures have to account for a <1 detection probability. Capture-recapture methods allow biologists to cope with this issue of detectability. Nevertheless, capture-recapture models for open populations are built on the assumption that all individuals share the same detection probability, although detection heterogeneity among individuals has led to underestimating abundance of closed populations. We developed multievent capture-recapture models for an open population and proposed an associated estimator of population size that both account for individual detection heterogeneity (IDH). We considered a two-class mixture model with weakly and highly detectable individuals to account for IDH. In a noninvasive capture-recapture study of wolves we based on genotypes identified in feces and hairs, we found a large underestimation of population size (27% on average) occurred when IDH was ignored.

  2. An aerial survey method to estimate sea otter abundance

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bodkin, J.L.; Udevitz, M.S.; Garner, G.W.; Amstrup, Steven C.; Laake, J.L.; Manly, B. F. J.; McDonald, L.L.; Robertson, Donna G.

    1999-01-01

    Sea otters (Enhydra lutris) occur in shallow coastal habitats and can be highly visible on the sea surface. They generally rest in groups and their detection depends on factors that include sea conditions, viewing platform, observer technique and skill, distance, habitat and group size. While visible on the surface, they are difficult to see while diving and may dive in response to an approaching survey platform. We developed and tested an aerial survey method that uses intensive searches within portions of strip transects to adjust for availability and sightability biases. Correction factors are estimated independently for each survey and observer. In tests of our method using shore-based observers, we estimated detection probabilities of 0.52-0.72 in standard strip-transects and 0.96 in intensive searches. We used the survey method in Prince William Sound, Alaska to estimate a sea otter population size of 9,092 (SE = 1422). The new method represents an improvement over various aspects of previous methods, but additional development and testing will be required prior to its broad application.

  3. An evaluation of multipass electrofishing for estimating the abundance of stream-dwelling salmonids

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Peterson, J.T.; Thurow, R.F.; Guzevich, J.W.

    2004-01-01

    , and those of other researchers, suggest that most electrofishing-removal-based estimates of fish abundance are likely to be biased and that these biases are related to stream characteristics, fish species, and size. We suggest that biologists regard electrofishing-removal- based estimates as biased indices and encourage them to measure and model the efficiency of their sampling methods to avoid introducing systematic errors into their data.

  4. Estimating parasitic sea lamprey abundance in Lake Huron from heterogenous data sources

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Young, Robert J.; Jones, Michael L.; Bence, James R.; McDonald, Rodney B.; Mullett, Katherine M.; Bergstedt, Roger A.

    2003-01-01

    The Great Lakes Fishery Commission uses time series of transformer, parasitic, and spawning population estimates to evaluate the effectiveness of its sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) control program. This study used an inverse variance weighting method to integrate Lake Huron sea lamprey population estimates derived from two estimation procedures: 1) prediction of the lake-wide spawning population from a regression model based on stream size and, 2) whole-lake mark and recapture estimates. In addition, we used a re-sampling procedure to evaluate the effect of trading off sampling effort between the regression and mark-recapture models. Population estimates derived from the regression model ranged from 132,000 to 377,000 while mark-recapture estimates of marked recently metamorphosed juveniles and parasitic sea lampreys ranged from 536,000 to 634,000 and 484,000 to 1,608,000, respectively. The precision of the estimates varied greatly among estimation procedures and years. The integrated estimate of the mark-recapture and spawner regression procedures ranged from 252,000 to 702,000 transformers. The re-sampling procedure indicated that the regression model is more sensitive to reduction in sampling effort than the mark-recapture model. Reliance on either the regression or mark-recapture model alone could produce misleading estimates of abundance of sea lampreys and the effect of the control program on sea lamprey abundance. These analyses indicate that the precision of the lakewide population estimate can be maximized by re-allocating sampling effort from marking sea lampreys to trapping additional streams.

  5. Robust Abundance Estimation in Animal Surveys with Imperfect Detection

    EPA Science Inventory

    Surveys of animal abundance are central to the conservation and management of living natural resources. However, detection uncertainty complicates the sampling process of many species. One sampling method employed to deal with this problem is depletion (or removal) surveys in whi...

  6. "Capture" Me if You Can: Estimating Abundance of Dolphin Populations

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Thompson, Jessica; Curran, Mary Carla; Cox, Tara

    2016-01-01

    Animal populations are monitored over time to assess the effects of environmental disaster and disease, as well as the efficacy of laws designed to protect them. Determining the abundance of a species within a defined area is one method of monitoring a population. In "Capture" Me if You Can, middle school students will use data collected…

  7. Estimating the abundance of mouse populations of known size: promises and pitfalls of new methods

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Conn, P.B.; Arthur, A.D.; Bailey, L.L.; Singleton, G.R.

    2006-01-01

    Knowledge of animal abundance is fundamental to many ecological studies. Frequently, researchers cannot determine true abundance, and so must estimate it using a method such as mark-recapture or distance sampling. Recent advances in abundance estimation allow one to model heterogeneity with individual covariates or mixture distributions and to derive multimodel abundance estimators that explicitly address uncertainty about which model parameterization best represents truth. Further, it is possible to borrow information on detection probability across several populations when data are sparse. While promising, these methods have not been evaluated using mark?recapture data from populations of known abundance, and thus far have largely been overlooked by ecologists. In this paper, we explored the utility of newly developed mark?recapture methods for estimating the abundance of 12 captive populations of wild house mice (Mus musculus). We found that mark?recapture methods employing individual covariates yielded satisfactory abundance estimates for most populations. In contrast, model sets with heterogeneity formulations consisting solely of mixture distributions did not perform well for several of the populations. We show through simulation that a higher number of trapping occasions would have been necessary to achieve good estimator performance in this case. Finally, we show that simultaneous analysis of data from low abundance populations can yield viable abundance estimates.

  8. An improved radiative transfer model for estimating mineral abundance of immature and mature lunar soils

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Dawei; Li, Lin; Sun, Ying

    2015-06-01

    An improved Hapke's radiative transfer model (RTM) is presented to estimate mineral abundance for both immature and mature lunar soils from the Lunar Soil Characterization Consortium (LSCC) dataset. Fundamental to this improved Hapke's model is the application of an alternative equation to describe the effects of larger size submicroscopic metallic iron (SMFe) (>50 nm) in the interior of agglutinitic glass that mainly darken the host material, contrasting to the darkening and reddening effects of smaller size SMFe (<50 nm) residing in the rims of mineral grains. Results from applying a nonlinear inversion procedure to the improved Hapke's RTM show that the average mass fraction of smaller and larger size SMFe in lunar soils was estimated to be 0.30% and 0.31% respectively, and the particle size distribution of soil samples is all within their measured range. Based on the derived mass fraction of SMFe and particle size of the soil samples, abundances of end-member components composing lunar soil samples were derived via minimizing the difference between measured and calculated spectra. The root mean square error (RMSE) between the fitted and measured spectra is lower than 0.01 for highland samples and 0.005 for mare samples. This improved Hapke's model accurately estimates abundances of agglutinitic glass (R-squared = 0.88), pyroxene (R-squared = 0.69) and plagioclase (R-squared = 0.95) for all 57 samples used in this study including both immature and mature lunar soils. However, the improved Hapke's RTM shows poor performance for quantifying abundances of olivine, ilmenite and volcanic glass. Improving the model performance for estimation of these three end-member components is the central focus for our future work.

  9. Hydroacoustic estimates of fish abundance. Reservoir vital signs monitoring, 1990

    SciTech Connect

    Wilson, W.K.

    1991-03-01

    Hydroacoustics, as defined in the context of this report, is the use of a scientific sonar system to determine fish densities with respect to numbers and biomass. These two parameters provide a method of monitoring reservoir fish populations and detecting gross changes in the ecosystem. With respect to southeastern reservoirs, hydroacoustic surveys represent a new method of sampling open water areas and the best technology available. The advantages of this technology are large amounts of data can be collected in a relatively short period of time allowing improved statistical interpretation and data comparison, the pelagic (open water) zone can be sampled efficiently regardless of depth, and sampling is nondestructive and noninvasive with neither injury to the fish nor alteration of the environment. Hydroacoustics cannot provide species identification and related information on species composition or length/weight relationships. Also, sampling is limited to a minimum depth of ten feet which precludes the use of this equipment for sampling shallow shoreline areas. The objective of this study is to use hydroacoustic techniques to estimate fish standing stocks (i.e., numbers and biomass) in several areas of selected Tennessee Valley Reservoirs as part of a base level monitoring program to assess long-term changes in reservoir water quality.

  10. Estimating snow leopard population abundance using photography and capture-recapture techniques

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jackson, R.M.; Roe, J.D.; Wangchuk, R.; Hunter, D.O.

    2006-01-01

    Conservation and management of snow leopards (Uncia uncia) has largely relied on anecdotal evidence and presence-absence data due to their cryptic nature and the difficult terrain they inhabit. These methods generally lack the scientific rigor necessary to accurately estimate population size and monitor trends. We evaluated the use of photography in capture-mark-recapture (CMR) techniques for estimating snow leopard population abundance and density within Hemis National Park, Ladakh, India. We placed infrared camera traps along actively used travel paths, scent-sprayed rocks, and scrape sites within 16- to 30-km2 sampling grids in successive winters during January and March 2003-2004. We used head-on, oblique, and side-view camera configurations to obtain snow leopard photographs at varying body orientations. We calculated snow leopard abundance estimates using the program CAPTURE. We obtained a total of 66 and 49 snow leopard captures resulting in 8.91 and 5.63 individuals per 100 trap-nights during 2003 and 2004, respectively. We identified snow leopards based on the distinct pelage patterns located primarily on the forelimbs, flanks, and dorsal surface of the tail. Capture probabilities ranged from 0.33 to 0.67. Density estimates ranged from 8.49 (SE = 0.22; individuals per 100 km2 in 2003 to 4.45 (SE = 0.16) in 2004. We believe the density disparity between years is attributable to different trap density and placement rather than to an actual decline in population size. Our results suggest that photographic capture-mark-recapture sampling may be a useful tool for monitoring demographic patterns. However, we believe a larger sample size would be necessary for generating a statistically robust estimate of population density and abundance based on CMR models.

  11. A robust design mark-resight abundance estimator allowing heterogeneity in resighting probabilities

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McClintock, B.T.; White, Gary C.; Burnham, K.P.

    2006-01-01

    This article introduces the beta-binomial estimator (BBE), a closed-population abundance mark-resight model combining the favorable qualities of maximum likelihood theory and the allowance of individual heterogeneity in sighting probability (p). The model may be parameterized for a robust sampling design consisting of multiple primary sampling occasions where closure need not be met between primary occasions. We applied the model to brown bear data from three study areas in Alaska and compared its performance to the joint hypergeometric estimator (JHE) and Bowden's estimator (BOWE). BBE estimates suggest heterogeneity levels were non-negligible and discourage the use of JHE for these data. Compared to JHE and BOWE, confidence intervals were considerably shorter for the AICc model-averaged BBE. To evaluate the properties of BBE relative to JHE and BOWE when sample sizes are small, simulations were performed with data from three primary occasions generated under both individual heterogeneity and temporal variation in p. All models remained consistent regardless of levels of variation in p. In terms of precision, the AICc model-averaged BBE showed advantages over JHE and BOWE when heterogeneity was present and mean sighting probabilities were similar between primary occasions. Based on the conditions examined, BBE is a reliable alternative to JHE or BOWE and provides a framework for further advances in mark-resight abundance estimation. ?? 2006 American Statistical Association and the International Biometric Society.

  12. Hankin and Reeves' Approach to Estimating Fish Abundance in Small Streams : Limitations and Potential Options.

    SciTech Connect

    Thompson, William L.

    2000-11-01

    Hankin and Reeves' (1988) approach to estimating fish abundance in small streams has been applied in stream-fish studies across North America. However, as with any method of population estimation, there are important assumptions that must be met for estimates to be minimally biased and reasonably precise. Consequently, I investigated effects of various levels of departure from these assumptions via simulation based on results from an example application in Hankin and Reeves (1988) and a spatially clustered population. Coverage of 95% confidence intervals averaged about 5% less than nominal when removal estimates equaled true numbers within sampling units, but averaged 62% - 86% less than nominal when they did not, with the exception where detection probabilities of individuals were >0.85 and constant across sampling units (95% confidence interval coverage = 90%). True total abundances averaged far (20% - 41%) below the lower confidence limit when not included within intervals, which implies large negative bias. Further, average coefficient of variation was about 1.5 times higher when removal estimates did not equal true numbers within sampling units (C{bar V} = 0.27 [SE = 0.0004]) than when they did (C{bar V} = 0.19 [SE = 0.0002]). A potential modification to Hankin and Reeves' approach is to include environmental covariates that affect detection rates of fish into the removal model or other mark-recapture model. A potential alternative is to use snorkeling in combination with line transect sampling to estimate fish densities. Regardless of the method of population estimation, a pilot study should be conducted to validate the enumeration method, which requires a known (or nearly so) population of fish to serve as a benchmark to evaluate bias and precision of population estimates.

  13. A method for estimating abundance of mobile populations using telemetry and counts of unmarked animals

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Clement, Matthew; O'Keefe, Joy M; Walters, Brianne

    2015-01-01

    While numerous methods exist for estimating abundance when detection is imperfect, these methods may not be appropriate due to logistical difficulties or unrealistic assumptions. In particular, if highly mobile taxa are frequently absent from survey locations, methods that estimate a probability of detection conditional on presence will generate biased abundance estimates. Here, we propose a new estimator for estimating abundance of mobile populations using telemetry and counts of unmarked animals. The estimator assumes that the target population conforms to a fission-fusion grouping pattern, in which the population is divided into groups that frequently change in size and composition. If assumptions are met, it is not necessary to locate all groups in the population to estimate abundance. We derive an estimator, perform a simulation study, conduct a power analysis, and apply the method to field data. The simulation study confirmed that our estimator is asymptotically unbiased with low bias, narrow confidence intervals, and good coverage, given a modest survey effort. The power analysis provided initial guidance on survey effort. When applied to small data sets obtained by radio-tracking Indiana bats, abundance estimates were reasonable, although imprecise. The proposed method has the potential to improve abundance estimates for mobile species that have a fission-fusion social structure, such as Indiana bats, because it does not condition detection on presence at survey locations and because it avoids certain restrictive assumptions.

  14. Calibrating abundance indices with population size estimators of red back salamanders (Plethodon cinereus) in a New England forest

    PubMed Central

    Ellison, Aaron M.; Jackson, Scott

    2015-01-01

    Herpetologists and conservation biologists frequently use convenient and cost-effective, but less accurate, abundance indices (e.g., number of individuals collected under artificial cover boards or during natural objects surveys) in lieu of more accurate, but costly and destructive, population size estimators to detect and monitor size, state, and trends of amphibian populations. Although there are advantages and disadvantages to each approach, reliable use of abundance indices requires that they be calibrated with accurate population estimators. Such calibrations, however, are rare. The red back salamander, Plethodon cinereus, is an ecologically useful indicator species of forest dynamics, and accurate calibration of indices of salamander abundance could increase the reliability of abundance indices used in monitoring programs. We calibrated abundance indices derived from surveys of P. cinereus under artificial cover boards or natural objects with a more accurate estimator of their population size in a New England forest. Average densities/m2 and capture probabilities of P. cinereus under natural objects or cover boards in independent, replicate sites at the Harvard Forest (Petersham, Massachusetts, USA) were similar in stands dominated by Tsuga canadensis (eastern hemlock) and deciduous hardwood species (predominantly Quercus rubra [red oak] and Acer rubrum [red maple]). The abundance index based on salamanders surveyed under natural objects was significantly associated with density estimates of P. cinereus derived from depletion (removal) surveys, but underestimated true density by 50%. In contrast, the abundance index based on cover-board surveys overestimated true density by a factor of 8 and the association between the cover-board index and the density estimates was not statistically significant. We conclude that when calibrated and used appropriately, some abundance indices may provide cost-effective and reliable measures of P. cinereus abundance that could

  15. Calibrating abundance indices with population size estimators of red back salamanders (Plethodon cinereus) in a New England forest.

    PubMed

    Siddig, Ahmed A; Ellison, Aaron M; Jackson, Scott

    2015-01-01

    Herpetologists and conservation biologists frequently use convenient and cost-effective, but less accurate, abundance indices (e.g., number of individuals collected under artificial cover boards or during natural objects surveys) in lieu of more accurate, but costly and destructive, population size estimators to detect and monitor size, state, and trends of amphibian populations. Although there are advantages and disadvantages to each approach, reliable use of abundance indices requires that they be calibrated with accurate population estimators. Such calibrations, however, are rare. The red back salamander, Plethodon cinereus, is an ecologically useful indicator species of forest dynamics, and accurate calibration of indices of salamander abundance could increase the reliability of abundance indices used in monitoring programs. We calibrated abundance indices derived from surveys of P. cinereus under artificial cover boards or natural objects with a more accurate estimator of their population size in a New England forest. Average densities/m(2) and capture probabilities of P. cinereus under natural objects or cover boards in independent, replicate sites at the Harvard Forest (Petersham, Massachusetts, USA) were similar in stands dominated by Tsuga canadensis (eastern hemlock) and deciduous hardwood species (predominantly Quercus rubra [red oak] and Acer rubrum [red maple]). The abundance index based on salamanders surveyed under natural objects was significantly associated with density estimates of P. cinereus derived from depletion (removal) surveys, but underestimated true density by 50%. In contrast, the abundance index based on cover-board surveys overestimated true density by a factor of 8 and the association between the cover-board index and the density estimates was not statistically significant. We conclude that when calibrated and used appropriately, some abundance indices may provide cost-effective and reliable measures of P. cinereus abundance that

  16. Bayes and empirical Bayes estimators of abundance and density from spatial capture-recapture data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dorazio, Robert M.

    2013-01-01

    In capture-recapture and mark-resight surveys, movements of individuals both within and between sampling periods can alter the susceptibility of individuals to detection over the region of sampling. In these circumstances spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR) models, which incorporate the observed locations of individuals, allow population density and abundance to be estimated while accounting for differences in detectability of individuals. In this paper I propose two Bayesian SECR models, one for the analysis of recaptures observed in trapping arrays and another for the analysis of recaptures observed in area searches. In formulating these models I used distinct submodels to specify the distribution of individual home-range centers and the observable recaptures associated with these individuals. This separation of ecological and observational processes allowed me to derive a formal connection between Bayes and empirical Bayes estimators of population abundance that has not been established previously. I showed that this connection applies to every Poisson point-process model of SECR data and provides theoretical support for a previously proposed estimator of abundance based on recaptures in trapping arrays. To illustrate results of both classical and Bayesian methods of analysis, I compared Bayes and empirical Bayes esimates of abundance and density using recaptures from simulated and real populations of animals. Real populations included two iconic datasets: recaptures of tigers detected in camera-trap surveys and recaptures of lizards detected in area-search surveys. In the datasets I analyzed, classical and Bayesian methods provided similar – and often identical – inferences, which is not surprising given the sample sizes and the noninformative priors used in the analyses.

  17. Bayes and empirical Bayes estimators of abundance and density from spatial capture-recapture data.

    PubMed

    Dorazio, Robert M

    2013-01-01

    In capture-recapture and mark-resight surveys, movements of individuals both within and between sampling periods can alter the susceptibility of individuals to detection over the region of sampling. In these circumstances spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR) models, which incorporate the observed locations of individuals, allow population density and abundance to be estimated while accounting for differences in detectability of individuals. In this paper I propose two Bayesian SECR models, one for the analysis of recaptures observed in trapping arrays and another for the analysis of recaptures observed in area searches. In formulating these models I used distinct submodels to specify the distribution of individual home-range centers and the observable recaptures associated with these individuals. This separation of ecological and observational processes allowed me to derive a formal connection between Bayes and empirical Bayes estimators of population abundance that has not been established previously. I showed that this connection applies to every Poisson point-process model of SECR data and provides theoretical support for a previously proposed estimator of abundance based on recaptures in trapping arrays. To illustrate results of both classical and Bayesian methods of analysis, I compared Bayes and empirical Bayes esimates of abundance and density using recaptures from simulated and real populations of animals. Real populations included two iconic datasets: recaptures of tigers detected in camera-trap surveys and recaptures of lizards detected in area-search surveys. In the datasets I analyzed, classical and Bayesian methods provided similar - and often identical - inferences, which is not surprising given the sample sizes and the noninformative priors used in the analyses.

  18. Hydroacoustic estimates of abundance and spatial distribution of pelagic prey fishes in western Lake Superior

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mason, Doran M.; Johnson, Timothy B.; Harvey, Chris J.; Kitchell, James F.; Schram, Stephen T.; Bronte, Charles R.; Hoff, MIchael H.; Lozano, Stephen J.; Trebitz, Anett S.; Schreiner, Donald R.; Lamon, E. Conrad; Hrabik, Thomas R.

    2005-01-01

    Lake herring (Coregonus artedi) and rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax) are a valuable prey resource for the recovering lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) in Lake Superior. However, prey biomass may be insufficient to support the current predator demand. In August 1997, we assessed the abundance and spatial distribution of pelagic coregonines and rainbow smelt in western Lake Superior by combining a 120 kHz split beam acoustics system with midwater trawls. Coregonines comprised the majority of the midwater trawl catches and the length distributions for trawl caught fish coincided with estimated sizes of acoustic targets. Overall mean pelagic prey fish biomass was 15.56 kg ha−1 with the greatest fish biomass occurring in the Apostle Islands region (27.98 kg ha−1), followed by the Duluth Minnesota region (20.22 kg ha−1), and with the lowest biomass occurring in the open waters of western Lake Superior (9.46 kg ha−1). Biomass estimates from hydroacoustics were typically 2–134 times greater than estimates derived from spring bottom trawl surveys. Prey fish biomass for Lake Superior is about order of magnitude less than acoustic estimates for Lakes Michigan and Ontario. Discrepancies observed between bioenergetics-based estimates of predator consumption of coregonines and earlier coregonine biomass estimates may be accounted for by our hydroacoustic estimates.

  19. Using counts to simultaneously estimate abundance and detection probabilities in a salamander community

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dodd, C.K.; Dorazio, R.M.

    2004-01-01

    A critical variable in both ecological and conservation field studies is determining how many individuals of a species are present within a defined sampling area. Labor intensive techniques such as capture-mark-recapture and removal sampling may provide estimates of abundance, but there are many logistical constraints to their widespread application. Many studies on terrestrial and aquatic salamanders use counts as an index of abundance, assuming that detection remains constant while sampling. If this constancy is violated, determination of detection probabilities is critical to the accurate estimation of abundance. Recently, a model was developed that provides a statistical approach that allows abundance and detection to be estimated simultaneously from spatially and temporally replicated counts. We adapted this model to estimate these parameters for salamanders sampled over a six vear period in area-constrained plots in Great Smoky Mountains National Park. Estimates of salamander abundance varied among years, but annual changes in abundance did not vary uniformly among species. Except for one species, abundance estimates were not correlated with site covariates (elevation/soil and water pH, conductivity, air and water temperature). The uncertainty in the estimates was so large as to make correlations ineffectual in predicting which covariates might influence abundance. Detection probabilities also varied among species and sometimes among years for the six species examined. We found such a high degree of variation in our counts and in estimates of detection among species, sites, and years as to cast doubt upon the appropriateness of using count data to monitor population trends using a small number of area-constrained survey plots. Still, the model provided reasonable estimates of abundance that could make it useful in estimating population size from count surveys.

  20. Chilean blue whales as a case study to illustrate methods to estimate abundance and evaluate conservation status of rare species.

    PubMed

    Williams, Rob; Hedley, Sharon L; Branch, Trevor A; Bravington, Mark V; Zerbini, Alexandre N; Findlay, Ken P

    2011-06-01

    Often abundance of rare species cannot be estimated with conventional design-based methods, so we illustrate with a population of blue whales (Balaenoptera musculus) a spatial model-based method to estimate abundance. We analyzed data from line-transect surveys of blue whales off the coast of Chile, where the population was hunted to low levels. Field protocols allowed deviation from planned track lines to collect identification photographs and tissue samples for genetic analyses, which resulted in an ad hoc sampling design with increased effort in areas of higher densities. Thus, we used spatial modeling methods to estimate abundance. Spatial models are increasingly being used to analyze data from surveys of marine, aquatic, and terrestrial species, but estimation of uncertainty from such models is often problematic. We developed a new, broadly applicable variance estimator that showed there were likely 303 whales (95% CI 176-625) in the study area. The survey did not span the whales' entire range, so this is a minimum estimate. We estimated current minimum abundance relative to pre-exploitation abundance (i.e., status) with a population dynamics model that incorporated our minimum abundance estimate, likely population growth rates from a meta-analysis of rates of increase in large baleen whales, and two alternative assumptions about historic catches. From this model, we estimated that the population was at a minimum of 9.5% (95% CI 4.9-18.0%) of pre-exploitation levels in 1998 under one catch assumption and 7.2% (CI 3.7-13.7%) of pre-exploitation levels under the other. Thus, although Chilean blue whales are probably still at a small fraction of pre-exploitation abundance, even these minimum abundance estimates demonstrate that their status is better than that of Antarctic blue whales, which are still <1% of pre-exploitation population size. We anticipate our methods will be broadly applicable in aquatic and terrestrial surveys for rarely encountered species

  1. Estimating Lion Abundance using N-mixture Models for Social Species

    PubMed Central

    Belant, Jerrold L.; Bled, Florent; Wilton, Clay M.; Fyumagwa, Robert; Mwampeta, Stanslaus B.; Beyer, Dean E.

    2016-01-01

    Declining populations of large carnivores worldwide, and the complexities of managing human-carnivore conflicts, require accurate population estimates of large carnivores to promote their long-term persistence through well-informed management We used N-mixture models to estimate lion (Panthera leo) abundance from call-in and track surveys in southeastern Serengeti National Park, Tanzania. Because of potential habituation to broadcasted calls and social behavior, we developed a hierarchical observation process within the N-mixture model conditioning lion detectability on their group response to call-ins and individual detection probabilities. We estimated 270 lions (95% credible interval = 170–551) using call-ins but were unable to estimate lion abundance from track data. We found a weak negative relationship between predicted track density and predicted lion abundance from the call-in surveys. Luminosity was negatively correlated with individual detection probability during call-in surveys. Lion abundance and track density were influenced by landcover, but direction of the corresponding effects were undetermined. N-mixture models allowed us to incorporate multiple parameters (e.g., landcover, luminosity, observer effect) influencing lion abundance and probability of detection directly into abundance estimates. We suggest that N-mixture models employing a hierarchical observation process can be used to estimate abundance of other social, herding, and grouping species. PMID:27786283

  2. Estimating Lion Abundance using N-mixture Models for Social Species.

    PubMed

    Belant, Jerrold L; Bled, Florent; Wilton, Clay M; Fyumagwa, Robert; Mwampeta, Stanslaus B; Beyer, Dean E

    2016-10-27

    Declining populations of large carnivores worldwide, and the complexities of managing human-carnivore conflicts, require accurate population estimates of large carnivores to promote their long-term persistence through well-informed management We used N-mixture models to estimate lion (Panthera leo) abundance from call-in and track surveys in southeastern Serengeti National Park, Tanzania. Because of potential habituation to broadcasted calls and social behavior, we developed a hierarchical observation process within the N-mixture model conditioning lion detectability on their group response to call-ins and individual detection probabilities. We estimated 270 lions (95% credible interval = 170-551) using call-ins but were unable to estimate lion abundance from track data. We found a weak negative relationship between predicted track density and predicted lion abundance from the call-in surveys. Luminosity was negatively correlated with individual detection probability during call-in surveys. Lion abundance and track density were influenced by landcover, but direction of the corresponding effects were undetermined. N-mixture models allowed us to incorporate multiple parameters (e.g., landcover, luminosity, observer effect) influencing lion abundance and probability of detection directly into abundance estimates. We suggest that N-mixture models employing a hierarchical observation process can be used to estimate abundance of other social, herding, and grouping species.

  3. Abundance estimation of Ixodes ticks (Acari: Ixodidae) on roe deer (Capreolus capreolus).

    PubMed

    Kiffner, Christian; Lödige, Christina; Alings, Matthias; Vor, Torsten; Rühe, Ferdinand

    2010-09-01

    Despite the importance of roe deer as a host for Ixodes ticks in central Europe, estimates of total tick burden on roe deer are not available to date. We aimed at providing (1) estimates of life stage and sex specific (larvae, nymphs, males and females, hereafter referred to as tick life stages) total Ixodes burden and (2) equations which can be used to predict the total life stage burden by counting the life stage on a selected body area. Within a period of 1(1/2) years, we conducted whole body counts of ticks from 80 hunter-killed roe deer originating from a beech dominated forest area in central Germany. Averaged over the entire study period (winter 2007-summer 2009), the mean tick burden per roe deer was 64.5 (SE +/- 10.6). Nymphs were the most numerous tick life stage per roe deer (23.9 +/- 3.2), followed by females (21.4 +/- 3.5), larvae (10.8 +/- 4.2) and males (8.4 +/- 1.5). The individual tick burden was highly aggregated (k = 0.46); levels of aggregation were highest in larvae (k = 0.08), followed by males (k = 0.40), females (k = 0.49) and nymphs (k = 0.71). To predict total life stage specific burdens based on counts on selected body parts, we provide linear equations. For estimating larvae abundance on the entire roe deer, counts can be restricted to the front legs. Tick counts restricted to the head are sufficient to estimate total nymph burden and counts on the neck are appropriate for estimating adult ticks (females and males). In order to estimate the combined tick burden, tick counts on the head can be used for extrapolation. The presented linear models are highly significant and explain 84.1, 77.3, 90.5, 91.3, and 65.3% (adjusted R (2)) of the observed variance, respectively. Thus, these models offer a robust basis for rapid tick abundance assessment. This can be useful for studies aiming at estimating effects of abiotic and biotic factors on tick abundance, modelling tick population dynamics, modelling tick-borne pathogen transmission dynamics

  4. Horvitz-Thompson survey sample methods for estimating large-scale animal abundance

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Samuel, M.D.; Garton, E.O.

    1994-01-01

    Large-scale surveys to estimate animal abundance can be useful for monitoring population status and trends, for measuring responses to management or environmental alterations, and for testing ecological hypotheses about abundance. However, large-scale surveys may be expensive and logistically complex. To ensure resources are not wasted on unattainable targets, the goals and uses of each survey should be specified carefully and alternative methods for addressing these objectives always should be considered. During survey design, the impoflance of each survey error component (spatial design, propofiion of detected animals, precision in detection) should be considered carefully to produce a complete statistically based survey. Failure to address these three survey components may produce population estimates that are inaccurate (biased low), have unrealistic precision (too precise) and do not satisfactorily meet the survey objectives. Optimum survey design requires trade-offs in these sources of error relative to the costs of sampling plots and detecting animals on plots, considerations that are specific to the spatial logistics and survey methods. The Horvitz-Thompson estimators provide a comprehensive framework for considering all three survey components during the design and analysis of large-scale wildlife surveys. Problems of spatial and temporal (especially survey to survey) heterogeneity in detection probabilities have received little consideration, but failure to account for heterogeneity produces biased population estimates. The goal of producing unbiased population estimates is in conflict with the increased variation from heterogeneous detection in the population estimate. One solution to this conflict is to use an MSE-based approach to achieve a balance between bias reduction and increased variation. Further research is needed to develop methods that address spatial heterogeneity in detection, evaluate the effects of temporal heterogeneity on survey

  5. Evaluation of methods to estimate lake herring spawner abundance in Lake Superior

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Yule, D.L.; Stockwell, J.D.; Cholwek, G.A.; Evrard, L.M.; Schram, S.; Seider, M.; Symbal, M.

    2006-01-01

    Historically, commercial fishers harvested Lake Superior lake herring Coregonus artedi for their flesh, but recently operators have targeted lake herring for roe. Because no surveys have estimated spawning female abundance, direct estimates of fishing mortality are lacking. The primary objective of this study was to determine the feasibility of using acoustic techniques in combination with midwater trawling to estimate spawning female lake herring densities in a Lake Superior statistical grid (i.e., a 10′ latitude × 10′ longitude area over which annual commercial harvest statistics are compiled). Midwater trawling showed that mature female lake herring were largely pelagic during the night in late November, accounting for 94.5% of all fish caught exceeding 250 mm total length. When calculating acoustic estimates of mature female lake herring, we excluded backscattering from smaller pelagic fishes like immature lake herring and rainbow smelt Osmerus mordax by applying an empirically derived threshold of −35.6 dB. We estimated the average density of mature females in statistical grid 1409 at 13.3 fish/ha and the total number of spawning females at 227,600 (95% confidence interval = 172,500–282,700). Using information on mature female densities, size structure, and fecundity, we estimate that females deposited 3.027 billion (109) eggs in grid 1409 (95% confidence interval = 2.356–3.778 billion). The relative estimation error of the mature female density estimate derived using a geostatistical model—based approach was low (12.3%), suggesting that the employed method was robust. Fishing mortality rates of all mature females and their eggs were estimated at 2.3% and 3.8%, respectively. The techniques described for enumerating spawning female lake herring could be used to develop a more accurate stock–recruitment model for Lake Superior lake herring.

  6. Effect of Trapping Methods, Weather, and Landscape on Estimates of the Culex Vector Mosquito Abundance

    PubMed Central

    Karki, Surendra; Hamer, Gabriel L.; Anderson, Tavis K.; Goldberg, Tony L.; Kitron, Uriel D.; Krebs, Bethany L.; Walker, Edward D.; Ruiz, Marilyn O.

    2016-01-01

    The local abundance of Culex mosquitoes is a central factor adding to the risk of West Nile virus transmission, and vector abundance data influence public health decisions. This study evaluated differences in abundance estimates from mosquitoes trapped using two common methods: CO2-baited CDC light traps and infusion-baited gravid traps in suburban, Chicago, Illinois. On a weekly basis, the two methods were modestly correlated (r = 0.219) across 71 weeks over 4 years. Lagged weather conditions of up to four weeks were associated with the number of mosquitoes collected in light and gravid traps. Collections in light traps were higher with higher temperature in the same week, higher precipitation one, two, and four weeks before the week of trapping, and lower maximum average wind speed. Collections in gravid traps were higher with higher temperature in the same week and one week earlier, lower temperature four weeks earlier, and with higher precipitation two and four weeks earlier. Culex abundance estimates from light traps were significantly higher in semi-natural areas compared to residential areas, but abundance estimates from gravid traps did not vary by the landscape type. These results highlight the importance of the surveillance methods used in the assessment of local Culex abundance estimates. Measures of risk of exposure to West Nile virus should assess carefully how mosquito abundance has been estimated and integrated into assessments of transmission risk. PMID:27375359

  7. ELM: AN ALGORITHM TO ESTIMATE THE ALPHA ABUNDANCE FROM LOW-RESOLUTION SPECTRA

    SciTech Connect

    Bu, Yude; Zhao, Gang; Kumar, Yerra Bharat; Pan, Jingchang E-mail: gzhao@nao.cas.cn

    2016-01-20

    We have investigated a novel methodology using the extreme learning machine (ELM) algorithm to determine the α abundance of stars. Applying two methods based on the ELM algorithm—ELM+spectra and ELM+Lick indices—to the stellar spectra from the ELODIE database, we measured the α abundance with a precision better than 0.065 dex. By applying these two methods to the spectra with different signal-to-noise ratios (S/Ns) and different resolutions, we found that ELM+spectra is more robust against degraded resolution and ELM+Lick indices is more robust against variation in S/N. To further validate the performance of ELM, we applied ELM+spectra and ELM+Lick indices to SDSS spectra and estimated α abundances with a precision around 0.10 dex, which is comparable to the results given by the SEGUE Stellar Parameter Pipeline. We further applied ELM to the spectra of stars in Galactic globular clusters (M15, M13, M71) and open clusters (NGC 2420, M67, NGC 6791), and results show good agreement with previous studies (within 1σ). A comparison of the ELM with other widely used methods including support vector machine, Gaussian process regression, artificial neural networks, and linear least-squares regression shows that ELM is efficient with computational resources and more accurate than other methods.

  8. ELM: an Algorithm to Estimate the Alpha Abundance from Low-resolution Spectra

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bu, Yude; Zhao, Gang; Pan, Jingchang; Bharat Kumar, Yerra

    2016-01-01

    We have investigated a novel methodology using the extreme learning machine (ELM) algorithm to determine the α abundance of stars. Applying two methods based on the ELM algorithm—ELM+spectra and ELM+Lick indices—to the stellar spectra from the ELODIE database, we measured the α abundance with a precision better than 0.065 dex. By applying these two methods to the spectra with different signal-to-noise ratios (S/Ns) and different resolutions, we found that ELM+spectra is more robust against degraded resolution and ELM+Lick indices is more robust against variation in S/N. To further validate the performance of ELM, we applied ELM+spectra and ELM+Lick indices to SDSS spectra and estimated α abundances with a precision around 0.10 dex, which is comparable to the results given by the SEGUE Stellar Parameter Pipeline. We further applied ELM to the spectra of stars in Galactic globular clusters (M15, M13, M71) and open clusters (NGC 2420, M67, NGC 6791), and results show good agreement with previous studies (within 1σ). A comparison of the ELM with other widely used methods including support vector machine, Gaussian process regression, artificial neural networks, and linear least-squares regression shows that ELM is efficient with computational resources and more accurate than other methods.

  9. Efficient estimation of abundance for patchily distributed populations via two-phase, adaptive sampling.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Conroy, M.J.; Runge, J.P.; Barker, R.J.; Schofield, M.R.; Fonnesbeck, C.J.

    2008-01-01

    Many organisms are patchily distributed, with some patches occupied at high density, others at lower densities, and others not occupied. Estimation of overall abundance can be difficult and is inefficient via intensive approaches such as capture-mark-recapture (CMR) or distance sampling. We propose a two-phase sampling scheme and model in a Bayesian framework to estimate abundance for patchily distributed populations. In the first phase, occupancy is estimated by binomial detection samples taken on all selected sites, where selection may be of all sites available, or a random sample of sites. Detection can be by visual surveys, detection of sign, physical captures, or other approach. At the second phase, if a detection threshold is achieved, CMR or other intensive sampling is conducted via standard procedures (grids or webs) to estimate abundance. Detection and CMR data are then used in a joint likelihood to model probability of detection in the occupancy sample via an abundance-detection model. CMR modeling is used to estimate abundance for the abundance-detection relationship, which in turn is used to predict abundance at the remaining sites, where only detection data are collected. We present a full Bayesian modeling treatment of this problem, in which posterior inference on abundance and other parameters (detection, capture probability) is obtained under a variety of assumptions about spatial and individual sources of heterogeneity. We apply the approach to abundance estimation for two species of voles (Microtus spp.) in Montana, USA. We also use a simulation study to evaluate the frequentist properties of our procedure given known patterns in abundance and detection among sites as well as design criteria. For most population characteristics and designs considered, bias and mean-square error (MSE) were low, and coverage of true parameter values by Bayesian credibility intervals was near nominal. Our two-phase, adaptive approach allows efficient estimation of

  10. Consideraciones para la estimacion de abundancia de poblaciones de mamiferos. [Considerations for the estimation of abundance of mammal populations.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Walker, R.S.; Novare, A.J.; Nichols, J.D.

    2000-01-01

    Estimation of abundance of mammal populations is essential for monitoring programs and for many ecological investigations. The first step for any study of variation in mammal abundance over space or time is to define the objectives of the study and how and why abundance data are to be used. The data used to estimate abundance are count statistics in the form of counts of animals or their signs. There are two major sources of uncertainty that must be considered in the design of the study: spatial variation and the relationship between abundance and the count statistic. Spatial variation in the distribution of animals or signs may be taken into account with appropriate spatial sampling. Count statistics may be viewed as random variables, with the expected value of the count statistic equal to the true abundance of the population multiplied by a coefficient p. With direct counts, p represents the probability of detection or capture of individuals, and with indirect counts it represents the rate of production of the signs as well as their probability of detection. Comparisons of abundance using count statistics from different times or places assume that the p are the same for all times or places being compared (p= pi). In spite of considerable evidence that this assumption rarely holds true, it is commonly made in studies of mammal abundance, as when the minimum number alive or indices based on sign counts are used to compare abundance in different habitats or times. Alternatives to relying on this assumption are to calibrate the index used by testing the assumption of p= pi, or to incorporate the estimation of p into the study design.

  11. Accuracy or precision: Implications of sample design and methodology on abundance estimation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kowalewski, Lucas K.; Chizinski, Christopher J.; Powell, Larkin A.; Pope, Kevin L.; Pegg, Mark A.

    2015-01-01

    Sampling by spatially replicated counts (point-count) is an increasingly popular method of estimating population size of organisms. Challenges exist when sampling by point-count method, and it is often impractical to sample entire area of interest and impossible to detect every individual present. Ecologists encounter logistical limitations that force them to sample either few large-sample units or many small sample-units, introducing biases to sample counts. We generated a computer environment and simulated sampling scenarios to test the role of number of samples, sample unit area, number of organisms, and distribution of organisms in the estimation of population sizes using N-mixture models. Many sample units of small area provided estimates that were consistently closer to true abundance than sample scenarios with few sample units of large area. However, sample scenarios with few sample units of large area provided more precise abundance estimates than abundance estimates derived from sample scenarios with many sample units of small area. It is important to consider accuracy and precision of abundance estimates during the sample design process with study goals and objectives fully recognized, although and with consequence, consideration of accuracy and precision of abundance estimates is often an afterthought that occurs during the data analysis process.

  12. Estimating sturgeon abundance in the Carolinas using side-scan sonar

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Flowers, H. Jared; Hightower, Joseph E.

    2015-01-01

    Sturgeons (Acipenseridae) are one of the most threatened taxa worldwide, including species in North Carolina and South Carolina. Populations of Atlantic Sturgeon Acipenser oxyrinchus in the Carolinas have been significantly reduced from historical levels by a combination of intense fishing and habitat loss. There is a need for estimates of current abundance, to describe status, and for estimates of historical abundance in order to provide realistic recovery goals. In this study we used N-mixture and distance models with data acquired from side-scan sonar surveys to estimate abundance of sturgeon in six major sturgeon rivers in North Carolina and South Carolina. Estimated abundances of sturgeon greater than 1 m TL in the Carolina distinct population segment (DPS) were 2,031 using the count model and 1,912 via the distance model. The Pee Dee River had the highest overall abundance of any river at 1,944 (count model) or 1,823 (distance model). These estimates do not account for sturgeon less than 1 m TL or occurring in riverine reaches not surveyed or in marine waters. Comparing the two models, the N-mixture model produced similar estimates using less data than the distance model with only a slight reduction of estimated precision.

  13. Filling a void: abundance estimation of North American populations of arctic geese using hunter recoveries

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Alisauskas, R.T.; Drake, K.L.; Nichols, J.D.; Thomson, David L.; Cooch, Evan G.; Conroy, Michael J.

    2009-01-01

    We consider use of recoveries of marked birds harvested by hunters, in conjunction with continental harvest estimates, for drawing inferences about continental abundance of a select number of goose species. We review assumptions of this method, a version of the Lincoln?Petersen approach, and consider its utility as a tool for making decisions about harvest management in comparison to current sources of information. Finally, we compare such estimates with existing count data, photographic estimates, or other abundance estimates. In most cases, Lincoln estimates are far higher than abundances assumed or perhaps accepted by many waterfowl biologists and managers. Nevertheless, depending on the geographic scope of inference, we suggest that this approach for abundance estimation of arctic geese may have usefulness for retrospective purposes or to assist with harvest management decisions for some species. Lincoln?s estimates may be as close or closer to truth than count, index, or photo data, and can be used with marking efforts currently in place for estimation of survival and harvest rates. Although there are bias issues associated with estimates of both harvest and harvest rate, some of the latter can be addressed with proper allocation of marks to spatially structured populations if subpopulations show heterogeneity in harvest rates.

  14. An integrated data model to estimate spatiotemporal occupancy, abundance, and colonization dynamics.

    PubMed

    Williams, Perry J; Hooten, Mevin B; Womble, Jamie N; Esslinger, George G; Bower, Michael R; Hefley, Trevor J

    2017-02-01

    Ecological invasions and colonizations occur dynamically through space and time. Estimating the distribution and abundance of colonizing species is critical for efficient management or conservation. We describe a statistical framework for simultaneously estimating spatiotemporal occupancy and abundance dynamics of a colonizing species. Our method accounts for several issues that are common when modeling spatiotemporal ecological data including multiple levels of detection probability, multiple data sources, and computational limitations that occur when making fine-scale inference over a large spatiotemporal domain. We apply the model to estimate the colonization dynamics of sea otters (Enhydra lutris) in Glacier Bay, in southeastern Alaska.

  15. Estimation and Bias Correction of Aerosol Abundance using Data-driven Machine Learning and Remote Sensing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Malakar, Nabin K.; Lary, D. L.; Moore, A.; Gencaga, D.; Roscoe, B.; Albayrak, Arif; Petrenko, Maksym; Wei, Jennifer

    2012-01-01

    Air quality information is increasingly becoming a public health concern, since some of the aerosol particles pose harmful effects to peoples health. One widely available metric of aerosol abundance is the aerosol optical depth (AOD). The AOD is the integrated light extinction coefficient over a vertical atmospheric column of unit cross section, which represents the extent to which the aerosols in that vertical profile prevent the transmission of light by absorption or scattering. The comparison between the AOD measured from the ground-based Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) system and the satellite MODIS instruments at 550 nm shows that there is a bias between the two data products. We performed a comprehensive analysis exploring possible factors which may be contributing to the inter-instrumental bias between MODIS and AERONET. The analysis used several measured variables, including the MODIS AOD, as input in order to train a neural network in regression mode to predict the AERONET AOD values. This not only allowed us to obtain an estimate, but also allowed us to infer the optimal sets of variables that played an important role in the prediction. In addition, we applied machine learning to infer the global abundance of ground level PM2.5 from the AOD data and other ancillary satellite and meteorology products. This research is part of our goal to provide air quality information, which can also be useful for global epidemiology studies.

  16. Derivation of safety factors for setting harvest quotas on adult walleyes from past estimates of abundance

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hansen, Michael J.; Staggs, Michael D.; Hoff, Michael H.

    1991-01-01

    Past population estimates of adult walleyes Stizostedion vitreum can be used to set harvest quotas, provided that temporal variability in abundance of adult walleyes is accounted for. We used a long-term data set from Escanaba Lake, Wisconsin, to evaluate the accuracy of past population estimates for setting current-year quotas for adult walleyes. The results from Escanaba Lake were corroborated by comparison with other lakes where adult walleye abundance was estimated in more than 1 year. The accuracy of estimates of adult walleye abundance declined over time from the year the estimate was obtained to the year it was used to set a harvest quota. We derived safety factors for application to past estimates of population size; these factors limit the occurrence of an exploitation rate exceeding the maximum sustainable rate (35%) to approximately 1 in 40. These safety factors declined from 35% for 1-year-old estimates to less than 20% for 10-year-old estimates.

  17. Hankin and Reeves' approach to estimating fish abundance in small streams: Limitations and alternatives

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Thompson, W.L.

    2003-01-01

    Hankin and Reeves' (1988) approach to estimating fish abundance in small streams has been applied in stream fish studies across North America. However, their population estimator relies on two key assumptions: (1) removal estimates are equal to the true numbers of fish, and (2) removal estimates are highly correlated with snorkel counts within a subset of sampled stream units. Violations of these assumptions may produce suspect results. To determine possible sources of the assumption violations, I used data on the abundance of steelhead Oncorhynchus mykiss from Hankin and Reeves' (1988) in a simulation composed of 50,000 repeated, stratified systematic random samples from a spatially clustered distribution. The simulation was used to investigate effects of a range of removal estimates, from 75% to 100% of true fish abundance, on overall stream fish population estimates. The effects of various categories of removal-estimates-to-snorkel-count correlation levels (r = 0.75-1.0) on fish population estimates were also explored. Simulation results indicated that Hankin and Reeves' approach may produce poor results unless removal estimates exceed at least 85% of the true number of fish within sampled units and unless correlations between removal estimates and snorkel counts are at least 0.90. A potential modification to Hankin and Reeves' approach is the inclusion of environmental covariates that affect detection rates of fish into the removal model or other mark-recapture model. A potential alternative approach is to use snorkeling combined with line transect sampling to estimate fish densities within stream units. As with any method of population estimation, a pilot study should be conducted to evaluate its usefulness, which requires a known (or nearly so) population of fish to serve as a benchmark for evaluating bias and precision of estimators.

  18. A robust and efficient method for estimating enzyme complex abundance and metabolic flux from expression data

    PubMed Central

    Barker, Brandon E.; Smallbone, Kieran; Myers, Christopher R.; Xi, Hongwei; Locasale, Jason W.; Gu, Zhenglong

    2015-01-01

    A major theme in constraint-based modeling is unifying experimental data, such as biochemical information about the reactions that can occur in a system or the composition and localization of enzyme complexes, with high-throughput data including expression data, metabolomics, or DNA sequencing. The desired result is to increase predictive capability and improve our understanding of metabolism. The approach typically employed when only gene (or protein) intensities are available is the creation of tissue-specific models, which reduces the available reactions in an organism model, and does not provide an objective function for the estimation of fluxes. We develop a method, flux assignment with LAD (least absolute deviation) convex objectives and normalization (FALCON), that employs metabolic network reconstructions along with expression data to estimate fluxes. In order to use such a method, accurate measures of enzyme complex abundance are needed, so we first present an algorithm that addresses quantification of complex abundance. Our extensions to prior techniques include the capability to work with large models and significantly improved run-time performance even for smaller models, an improved analysis of enzyme complex formation, the ability to handle large enzyme complex rules that may incorporate multiple isoforms, and either maintained or significantly improved correlation with experimentally measured fluxes. FALCON has been implemented in MATLAB and ATS, and can be downloaded from: https://github.com/bbarker/FALCON. ATS is not required to compile the software, as intermediate C source code is available. FALCON requires use of the COBRA Toolbox, also implemented in MATLAB. PMID:26381164

  19. Use of Droplet Digital PCR for Estimation of Fish Abundance and Biomass in Environmental DNA Surveys

    PubMed Central

    Doi, Hideyuki; Uchii, Kimiko; Takahara, Teruhiko; Matsuhashi, Saeko; Yamanaka, Hiroki; Minamoto, Toshifumi

    2015-01-01

    An environmental DNA (eDNA) analysis method has been recently developed to estimate the distribution of aquatic animals by quantifying the number of target DNA copies with quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR). A new quantitative PCR technology, droplet digital PCR (ddPCR), partitions PCR reactions into thousands of droplets and detects the amplification in each droplet, thereby allowing direct quantification of target DNA. We evaluated the quantification accuracy of qPCR and ddPCR to estimate species abundance and biomass by using eDNA in mesocosm experiments involving different numbers of common carp. We found that ddPCR quantified the concentration of carp eDNA along with carp abundance and biomass more accurately than qPCR, especially at low eDNA concentrations. In addition, errors in the analysis were smaller in ddPCR than in qPCR. Thus, ddPCR is better suited to measure eDNA concentration in water, and it provides more accurate results for the abundance and biomass of the target species than qPCR. We also found that the relationship between carp abundance and eDNA concentration was stronger than that between biomass and eDNA by using both ddPCR and qPCR; this suggests that abundance can be better estimated by the analysis of eDNA for species with fewer variations in body mass. PMID:25799582

  20. Repeated count surveys help standardize multi-agency estimates of American Oystercatcher (Haematopus palliatus) abundance

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hostetter, Nathan J.; Gardner, Beth; Schweitzer, Sara H.; Boettcher, Ruth; Wilke, Alexandra L.; Addison, Lindsay; Swilling, William R.; Pollock, Kenneth H.; Simons, Theodore R.

    2015-01-01

    The extensive breeding range of many shorebird species can make integration of survey data problematic at regional spatial scales. We evaluated the effectiveness of standardized repeated count surveys coordinated across 8 agencies to estimate the abundance of American Oystercatcher (Haematopus palliatus) breeding pairs in the southeastern United States. Breeding season surveys were conducted across coastal North Carolina (90 plots) and the Eastern Shore of Virginia (3 plots). Plots were visited on 1–5 occasions during April–June 2013. N-mixture models were used to estimate abundance and detection probability in relation to survey date, tide stage, plot size, and plot location (coastal bay vs. barrier island). The estimated abundance of oystercatchers in the surveyed area was 1,048 individuals (95% credible interval: 851–1,408) and 470 pairs (384–637), substantially higher than estimates that did not account for detection probability (maximum counts of 674 individuals and 316 pairs). Detection probability was influenced by a quadratic function of survey date, and increased from mid-April (~0.60) to mid-May (~0.80), then remained relatively constant through June. Detection probability was also higher during high tide than during low, rising, or falling tides. Abundance estimates from N-mixture models were validated at 13 plots by exhaustive productivity studies (2–5 surveys wk−1). Intensive productivity studies identified 78 breeding pairs across 13 productivity plots while the N-mixture model abundance estimate was 74 pairs (62–119) using only 1–5 replicated surveys season−1. Our results indicate that standardized replicated count surveys coordinated across multiple agencies and conducted during a relatively short time window (closure assumption) provide tremendous potential to meet both agency-level (e.g., state) and regional-level (e.g., flyway) objectives in large-scale shorebird monitoring programs.

  1. Estimating DNA coverage and abundance in metagenomes using a gamma approximation

    SciTech Connect

    Hooper, Sean D; Dalevi, Daniel; Pati, Amrita; Mavromatis, Konstantinos; Ivanova, Natalia N; Kyrpides, Nikos C

    2010-01-01

    Shotgun sequencing generates large numbers of short DNA reads from either an isolated organism or, in the case of metagenomics projects, from the aggregate genome of a microbial community. These reads are then assembled based on overlapping sequences into larger, contiguous sequences (contigs). The feasibility of assembly and the coverage achieved (reads per nucleotide or distinct sequence of nucleotides) depend on several factors: the number of reads sequenced, the read length and the relative abundances of their source genomes in the microbial community. A low coverage suggests that most of the genomic DNA in the sample has not been sequenced, but it is often difficult to estimate either the extent of the uncaptured diversity or the amount of additional sequencing that would be most efficacious. In this work, we regard a metagenome as a population of DNA fragments (bins), each of which may be covered by one or more reads. We employ a gamma distribution to model this bin population due to its flexibility and ease of use. When a gamma approximation can be found that adequately fits the data, we may estimate the number of bins that were not sequenced and that could potentially be revealed by additional sequencing. We evaluated the performance of this model using simulated metagenomes and demonstrate its applicability on three recent metagenomic datasets.

  2. Estimating occupancy and abundance of stream amphibians using environmental DNA from filtered water samples

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Pilliod, David S.; Goldberg, Caren S.; Arkle, Robert S.; Waits, Lisette P.

    2013-01-01

    Environmental DNA (eDNA) methods for detecting aquatic species are advancing rapidly, but with little evaluation of field protocols or precision of resulting estimates. We compared sampling results from traditional field methods with eDNA methods for two amphibians in 13 streams in central Idaho, USA. We also evaluated three water collection protocols and the influence of sampling location, time of day, and distance from animals on eDNA concentration in the water. We found no difference in detection or amount of eDNA among water collection protocols. eDNA methods had slightly higher detection rates than traditional field methods, particularly when species occurred at low densities. eDNA concentration was positively related to field-measured density, biomass, and proportion of transects occupied. Precision of eDNA-based abundance estimates increased with the amount of eDNA in the water and the number of replicate subsamples collected. eDNA concentration did not vary significantly with sample location in the stream, time of day, or distance downstream from animals. Our results further advance the implementation of eDNA methods for monitoring aquatic vertebrates in stream habitats.

  3. Techniques and methods for estimating abundance of larval and metamorphosed sea lampreys in Great Lakes tributaries, 1995 to 2001

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Slade, Jeffrey W.; Adams, Jean V.; Christie, Gavin C.; Cuddy, Douglas W.; Fodale, Michael F.; Heinrich, John W.; Quinlan, Henry R.; Weise, Jerry G.; Weisser, John W.; Young, Robert J.

    2003-01-01

    Before 1995, Great Lakes streams were selected for lampricide treatment based primarily on qualitative measures of the relative abundance of larval sea lampreys, Petromyzon marinus. New integrated pest management approaches required standardized quantitative measures of sea lamprey. This paper evaluates historical larval assessment techniques and data and describes how new standardized methods for estimating abundance of larval and metamorphosed sea lampreys were developed and implemented. These new methods have been used to estimate larval and metamorphosed sea lamprey abundance in about 100 Great Lakes streams annually and to rank them for lampricide treatment since 1995. Implementation of these methods has provided a quantitative means of selecting streams for treatment based on treatment cost and estimated production of metamorphosed sea lampreys, provided managers with a tool to estimate potential recruitment of sea lampreys to the Great Lakes and the ability to measure the potential consequences of not treating streams, resulting in a more justifiable allocation of resources. The empirical data produced can also be used to simulate the impacts of various control scenarios.

  4. Abundances of microRNAs in human cells can be estimated as a function of the abundances of YRHB and RHHK tetranucleotides in these microRNAs as an ill-posed inverse problem solution.

    PubMed

    Ponomarenko, Mikhail P; Suslov, Valentin V; Ponomarenko, Petr M; Gunbin, Konstantin V; Stepanenko, Irina L; Vishnevsky, Oleg V; Kolchanov, Nikolay A

    2013-01-01

    Mature microRNAs (miRNAs) are small endogenous non-coding RNAs 18-25 nt in length. They program the RNA Induced Silencing Complex (RISC) to make it inhibit either messenger RNAs or promoter DNAs. We have found that the mean abundance of miRNAs in Arabidopsis is correlated with the abundance of DRYD tetranucleotides near the 3'-end and the abundance of WRHB tetranucleotides in the center of the miRNA sequence. Based on this correlation, we have estimated miRNA abundances in seven organs of this plant, namely: inflorescences, stems, siliques, seedlings, roots, cauline, and rosette leaves. We have also found that the mean affinity of miRNAs for two proteins in the Argonaute family (Ago2 and Ago3) in man is correlated with the abundance of YRHB tetranucleotides near the 3'-end and that the preference of miRNAs for Ago2 is correlated with the abundance of RHHK tetranucleotides in the center of the miRNA sequence. This allowed us to obtain statistically significant estimates of miRNA abundances in human embryonic kidney cells, HEK293T. These findings in relation to two taxonomically distant entities (man and Arabidopsis) fit one another like pieces of a jigsaw puzzle, which allowed us to heuristically generalize them and state that the miRNA abundance in the human brain may be determined by the abundance of YRHB and RHHK tetranucleotides in these miRNAs.

  5. Estimating abundances of interacting species using morphological traits, foraging guilds, and habitat

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dorazio, Robert M.; Connor, Edward F.

    2014-01-01

    We developed a statistical model to estimate the abundances of potentially interacting species encountered while conducting point-count surveys at a set of ecologically relevant locations - as in a metacommunity of species. In the model we assume that abundances of species with similar traits (e.g., body size) are potentially correlated and that these correlations, when present, may exist among all species or only among functionally related species (such as members of the same foraging guild). We also assume that species-specific abundances vary among locations owing to systematic and stochastic sources of heterogeneity. For example, if abundances differ among locations due to differences in habitat, then measures of habitat may be included in the model as covariates. Naturally, the quantitative effects of these covariates are assumed to differ among species. Our model also accounts for the effects of detectability on the observed counts of each species. This aspect of the model is especially important for rare or uncommon species that may be difficult to detect in community-level surveys. Estimating the detectability of each species requires sampling locations to be surveyed repeatedly using different observers or different visits of a single observer. As an illustration, we fitted models to species-specific counts of birds obtained while sampling an avian community during the breeding season. In the analysis we examined whether species abundances appeared to be correlated due to similarities in morphological measures (body mass, beak length, tarsus length, wing length, tail length) and whether these correlations existed among all species or only among species of the same foraging guild. We also used the model to estimate the effects of forested area on species abundances and the effects of sound power output (as measured by body size) on species detection probabilities.

  6. Estimating Abundances of Interacting Species Using Morphological Traits, Foraging Guilds, and Habitat

    PubMed Central

    Dorazio, Robert M.; Connor, Edward F.

    2014-01-01

    We developed a statistical model to estimate the abundances of potentially interacting species encountered while conducting point-count surveys at a set of ecologically relevant locations – as in a metacommunity of species. In the model we assume that abundances of species with similar traits (e.g., body size) are potentially correlated and that these correlations, when present, may exist among all species or only among functionally related species (such as members of the same foraging guild). We also assume that species-specific abundances vary among locations owing to systematic and stochastic sources of heterogeneity. For example, if abundances differ among locations due to differences in habitat, then measures of habitat may be included in the model as covariates. Naturally, the quantitative effects of these covariates are assumed to differ among species. Our model also accounts for the effects of detectability on the observed counts of each species. This aspect of the model is especially important for rare or uncommon species that may be difficult to detect in community-level surveys. Estimating the detectability of each species requires sampling locations to be surveyed repeatedly using different observers or different visits of a single observer. As an illustration, we fitted models to species-specific counts of birds obtained while sampling an avian community during the breeding season. In the analysis we examined whether species abundances appeared to be correlated due to similarities in morphological measures (body mass, beak length, tarsus length, wing length, tail length) and whether these correlations existed among all species or only among species of the same foraging guild. We also used the model to estimate the effects of forested area on species abundances and the effects of sound power output (as measured by body size) on species detection probabilities. PMID:24727898

  7. Absolute abundance of southern bluefin tuna estimated by close-kin mark-recapture

    PubMed Central

    Bravington, Mark V.; Grewe, Peter M.; Davies, Campbell R.

    2016-01-01

    Southern bluefin tuna is a highly valuable, severely depleted species, whose abundance and productivity have been difficult to assess with conventional fishery data. Here we use large-scale genotyping to look for parent–offspring pairs among 14,000 tissue samples of juvenile and adult tuna collected from the fisheries, finding 45 pairs in total. Using a modified mark-recapture framework where ‘recaptures' are kin rather than individuals, we can estimate adult abundance and other demographic parameters such as survival, without needing to use contentious fishery catch or effort data. Our abundance estimates are substantially higher and more precise than previously thought, indicating a somewhat less-depleted and more productive stock. More broadly, this technique of ‘close-kin mark-recapture' has widespread utility in fisheries and wildlife conservation. It estimates a key parameter for management—the absolute abundance of adults—while avoiding the expense of independent surveys or tag-release programmes, and the interpretational problems of fishery catch rates. PMID:27841264

  8. Abundance estimation from multiple photo surveys: confidence distributions and reduced likelihoods for bowhead whales off Alaska.

    PubMed

    Schweder, Tore

    2003-12-01

    Maximum likelihood estimates of abundance are obtained from repeated photographic surveys of a closed stratified population with naturally marked and unmarked individuals. Capture intensities are assumed log-linear in stratum, year, and season. In the chosen model, an approximate confidence distribution for total abundance of bowhead whales, with an accompanying likelihood reduced of nuisance parameters, is found from a parametric bootstrap experiment. The confidence distribution depends on the assumed study protocol. A confidence distribution that is exact (except for the effect of discreteness) is found by conditioning in the unstratified case without unmarked individuals.

  9. Finding a fox: an evaluation of survey methods to estimate abundance of a small desert carnivore.

    PubMed

    Dempsey, Steven J; Gese, Eric M; Kluever, Bryan M

    2014-01-01

    The status of many carnivore species is a growing concern for wildlife agencies, conservation organizations, and the general public. Historically, kit foxes (Vulpes macrotis) were classified as abundant and distributed in the desert and semi-arid regions of southwestern North America, but is now considered rare throughout its range. Survey methods have been evaluated for kit foxes, but often in populations where abundance is high and there is little consensus on which technique is best to monitor abundance. We conducted a 2-year study to evaluate four survey methods (scat deposition surveys, scent station surveys, spotlight survey, and trapping) for detecting kit foxes and measuring fox abundance. We determined the probability of detection for each method, and examined the correlation between the relative abundance as estimated by each survey method and the known minimum kit fox abundance as determined by radio-collared animals. All surveys were conducted on 15 5-km transects during the 3 biological seasons of the kit fox. Scat deposition surveys had both the highest detection probabilities (p = 0.88) and were most closely related to minimum known fox abundance (r2 = 0.50, P = 0.001). The next best method for kit fox detection was the scent station survey (p = 0.73), which had the second highest correlation to fox abundance (r2 = 0.46, P<0.001). For detecting kit foxes in a low density population we suggest using scat deposition transects during the breeding season. Scat deposition surveys have low costs, resilience to weather, low labor requirements, and pose no risk to the study animals. The breeding season was ideal for monitoring kit fox population size, as detections consisted of the resident population and had the highest detection probabilities. Using appropriate monitoring techniques will be critical for future conservation actions for this rare desert carnivore.

  10. Finding a Fox: An Evaluation of Survey Methods to Estimate Abundance of a Small Desert Carnivore

    PubMed Central

    Dempsey, Steven J.; Gese, Eric M.; Kluever, Bryan M.

    2014-01-01

    The status of many carnivore species is a growing concern for wildlife agencies, conservation organizations, and the general public. Historically, kit foxes (Vulpes macrotis) were classified as abundant and distributed in the desert and semi-arid regions of southwestern North America, but is now considered rare throughout its range. Survey methods have been evaluated for kit foxes, but often in populations where abundance is high and there is little consensus on which technique is best to monitor abundance. We conducted a 2-year study to evaluate four survey methods (scat deposition surveys, scent station surveys, spotlight survey, and trapping) for detecting kit foxes and measuring fox abundance. We determined the probability of detection for each method, and examined the correlation between the relative abundance as estimated by each survey method and the known minimum kit fox abundance as determined by radio-collared animals. All surveys were conducted on 15 5-km transects during the 3 biological seasons of the kit fox. Scat deposition surveys had both the highest detection probabilities (p = 0.88) and were most closely related to minimum known fox abundance (r2 = 0.50, P = 0.001). The next best method for kit fox detection was the scent station survey (p = 0.73), which had the second highest correlation to fox abundance (r2 = 0.46, P<0.001). For detecting kit foxes in a low density population we suggest using scat deposition transects during the breeding season. Scat deposition surveys have low costs, resilience to weather, low labor requirements, and pose no risk to the study animals. The breeding season was ideal for monitoring kit fox population size, as detections consisted of the resident population and had the highest detection probabilities. Using appropriate monitoring techniques will be critical for future conservation actions for this rare desert carnivore. PMID:25148102

  11. Abundance of adult horseshoe crabs (Limulus polylphemus) in Delaware Bay estimated from a bay-wide mark-recapture study

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Smith, D.R.; Millard, M.J.; Eyler, S.

    2006-01-01

    Estimates of the abundance of American horseshoe crabs (Limulus polyphemus) are important to determine egg production and to manage populations for the energetic needs of shorebirds that feed on horseshoe crab eggs. In 2003, over 17,500 horseshoe crabs were tagged and released throughout Delaware Bay, and recaptured crabs came from spawning surveys that were conducted during peak spawning. We used two release cohorts to test for a temporary effect of tagging on spawning behavior and we adjusted the number of releases according to relocation rates from a telemetry study. The abundance estimate was 20 million horseshoe crabs (90% confidence interval: 13-28 million), of which 6.25 million (90% CI: 4.0-8.8 million) were females. The combined harvest rate for Delaware, New Jersey, Virginia, and Maryland in 2003 was 4% (90% CI: 3-6%) of the abundance estimate. Over-wintering of adults in Delaware Bay could explain, in part, differences in estimates from ocean-trawl surveys. Based on fecundity of 88,000 eggs per female, egg production was 5.5??1011 (90% CI: 3.5??1011, 7.7??1011), but egg availability for shorebirds also depended on overlap between horseshoe crab and shorebird migrations, density-dependent bioturbation, and wave-mediated vertical transport.

  12. Estimated Rock Abundance and Thermophysical Parameters in Oppenheimer Crater on the Moon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bauch, Karin E.; Hiesinger, Harald; Ivanov, Mikhail; van der Bogert, Carolyn H.; Pasckert, Jan-Hendrik; Weinauer, Julia

    2016-04-01

    Oppenheimer crater is located in the north-east of the South Pole-Aitken basin (SPA), the largest impact structure on the Moon [e.g., 1]. The crater is ˜215km in diameter and has an estimated age of ˜4.1 Ga [2]. The floor of Oppenheimer shows evidence of dark mantling deposits and a concentric system of graben structures close to the rim of the crater [3]. Image and topography data show that the floor is flat apart from the graben structures and subsequent impacts on the floor. Oppenheimer-U (˜40km) and -H (˜35km) are floor-fractured craters within the north-west and south-east portions of Oppenheimer crater [3]. Dark mantling deposits on the floor are associated with the graben system. [3] estimated an age between ˜3.98Ga and ˜3.66Ga for the pyroclastic activity, based on crater size-frequency distribution (CSFD) measurements on Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) WAC and NAC images. In this study we compare the mapping results of [3] with temperature data of the LRO Diviner experiment [4] using a numerical model [5, 6]. Nighttime temperature variations are directly influenced by the surface and subsurface thermophysical properties, namely bulk density, heat capacity, and thermal conductivity [7, 8]. These properties can be summarized to a thermal inertia, which represents the ability to conduct and store heat [8]. Low thermal inertia units, such as dust and other fine grained material, quickly respond to temperature changes, which results in large temperature amplitudes between the lunar day and night. On the other hand, high thermal inertia material, e.g. rocks or bedrock, take more time to heat up during the day and reradiate the heat during the night [8]. Relative rock abundances are derived from temperature measurements of the same location at different wavelengths. Brightness temperatures are a function of wavelength and increase with decreasing wavelength [9, 10]. This nonlinearity of the Planck radiance can be used to determine the amount of

  13. A new device to estimate abundance of moist-soil plant seeds

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Penny, E.J.; Kaminski, R.M.; Reinecke, K.J.

    2006-01-01

    Methods to sample the abundance of moist-soil seeds efficiently and accurately are critical for evaluating management practices and determining food availability. We adapted a portable, gasoline-powered vacuum to estimate abundance of seeds on the surface of a moist-soil wetland in east-central Mississippi and evaluated the sampler by simulating conditions that researchers and managers may experience when sampling moist-soil areas for seeds. We measured the percent recovery of known masses of seeds by the vacuum sampler in relation to 4 experimentally controlled factors (i.e., seed-size class, sample mass, soil moisture class, and vacuum time) with 2-4 levels per factor. We also measured processing time of samples in the laboratory. Across all experimental factors, seed recovery averaged 88.4% and varied little (CV = 0.68%, n = 474). Overall, mean time to process a sample was 30.3 ? 2.5 min (SE, n = 417). Our estimate of seed recovery rate (88%) may be used to adjust estimates for incomplete seed recovery, or project-specific correction factors may be developed by investigators. Our device was effective for estimating surface abundance of moist-soil plant seeds after dehiscence and before habitats were flooded.

  14. Estimating abundance and density of Amur tigers along the Sino-Russian border.

    PubMed

    Xiao, Wenhong; Feng, Limin; Mou, Pu; Miquelle, Dale G; Hebblewhite, Mark; Goldberg, Joshua F; Robinson, Hugh S; Zhao, Xiaodan; Zhou, Bo; Wang, Tianming; Ge, Jianping

    2016-07-01

    As an apex predator the Amur tiger (Panthera tigris altaica) could play a pivotal role in maintaining the integrity of forest ecosystems in Northeast Asia. Due to habitat loss and harvest over the past century, tigers rapidly declined in China and are now restricted to the Russian Far East and bordering habitat in nearby China. To facilitate restoration of the tiger in its historical range, reliable estimates of population size are essential to assess effectiveness of conservation interventions. Here we used camera trap data collected in Hunchun National Nature Reserve from April to June 2013 and 2014 to estimate tiger density and abundance using both maximum likelihood and Bayesian spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR) methods. A minimum of 8 individuals were detected in both sample periods and the documentation of marking behavior and reproduction suggests the presence of a resident population. Using Bayesian SECR modeling within the 11 400 km(2) state space, density estimates were 0.33 and 0.40 individuals/100 km(2) in 2013 and 2014, respectively, corresponding to an estimated abundance of 38 and 45 animals for this transboundary Sino-Russian population. In a maximum likelihood framework, we estimated densities of 0.30 and 0.24 individuals/100 km(2) corresponding to abundances of 34 and 27, in 2013 and 2014, respectively. These density estimates are comparable to other published estimates for resident Amur tiger populations in the Russian Far East. This study reveals promising signs of tiger recovery in Northeast China, and demonstrates the importance of connectivity between the Russian and Chinese populations for recovering tigers in Northeast China.

  15. Estimation of occupancy, breeding success, and predicted abundance of golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) in the Diablo Range, California, 2014

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wiens, J. David; Kolar, Patrick S.; Fuller, Mark R.; Hunt, W. Grainger; Hunt, Teresa

    2015-01-01

    We used a multistate occupancy sampling design to estimate occupancy, breeding success, and abundance of territorial pairs of golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) in the Diablo Range, California, in 2014. This method uses the spatial pattern of detections and non-detections over repeated visits to survey sites to estimate probabilities of occupancy and successful reproduction while accounting for imperfect detection of golden eagles and their young during surveys. The estimated probability of detecting territorial pairs of golden eagles and their young was less than 1 and varied with time of the breeding season, as did the probability of correctly classifying a pair’s breeding status. Imperfect detection and breeding classification led to a sizeable difference between the uncorrected, naïve estimate of the proportion of occupied sites where successful reproduction was observed (0.20) and the model-based estimate (0.30). The analysis further indicated a relatively high overall probability of landscape occupancy by pairs of golden eagles (0.67, standard error = 0.06), but that areas with the greatest occupancy and reproductive potential were patchily distributed. We documented a total of 138 territorial pairs of golden eagles during surveys completed in the 2014 breeding season, which represented about one-half of the 280 pairs we estimated to occur in the broader 5,169-square kilometer region sampled. The study results emphasize the importance of accounting for imperfect detection and spatial heterogeneity in studies of site occupancy, breeding success, and abundance of golden eagles.

  16. Estimating the abundance of the Southern Hudson Bay polar bear subpopulation with aerial surveys

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Obbard, Martyn E.; Stapleton, Seth P.; Middel, Kevin R.; Thibault, Isabelle; Brodeur, Vincent; Jutras, Charles

    2015-01-01

    The Southern Hudson Bay (SH) polar bear subpopulation occurs at the southern extent of the species’ range. Although capture–recapture studies indicate abundance was likely unchanged between 1986 and 2005, declines in body condition and survival occurred during the period, possibly foreshadowing a future decrease in abundance. To obtain a current estimate of abundance, we conducted a comprehensive line transect aerial survey of SH during 2011–2012. We stratified the study site by anticipated densities and flew coastal contour transects and systematically spaced inland transects in Ontario and on Akimiski Island and large offshore islands in 2011. Data were collected with double-observer and distance sampling protocols. We surveyed small islands in James Bay and eastern Hudson Bay and flew a comprehensive transect along the Québec coastline in 2012. We observed 667 bears in Ontario and on Akimiski Island and nearby islands in 2011, and we sighted 80 bears on offshore islands during 2012. Mark–recapture distance sampling and sight–resight models yielded an estimate of 860 (SE = 174) for the 2011 study area. Our estimate of abundance for the entire SH subpopulation (943; SE = 174) suggests that abundance is unlikely to have changed significantly since 1986. However, this result should be interpreted cautiously because of the methodological differences between historical studies (physical capture–recapture) and this survey. A conservative management approach is warranted given previous increases in duration of the ice-free season, which are predicted to continue in the future, and previously documented declines in body condition and vital rates.

  17. Estimating abundance of the Southern Hudson Bay polar bear subpopulation using aerial surveys, 2011 and 2012

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Obbard, Martyn E.; Middel, Kevin R.; Stapleton, Seth P.; Thibault, Isabelle; Brodeur, Vincent; Jutras, Charles

    2013-01-01

    The Southern Hudson Bay (SH) polar bear subpopulation occurs at the southern extent of the species’ range. Although capture-recapture studies indicate that abundance remained stable between 1986 and 2005, declines in body condition and survival were documented during the period, possibly foreshadowing a future decrease in abundance. To obtain a current estimate of abundance, we conducted a comprehensive line transect aerial survey of SH during 2011–2012. We stratified the study site by anticipated densities and flew coastal contour transects and systematically spaced inland transects in Ontario and on Akimiski Island and large offshore islands in 2011. Data were collected with double observer and distance sampling protocols. We also surveyed small islands in Hudson Bay and James Bay and flew a comprehensive transect along the Québec coastline in 2012. We observed 667 bears in Ontario and on Akimiski Island and nearby islands in 2011, and we sighted 80 bears on offshore islands during 2012. Mark-recapture distance sampling and sightresight models yielded a model-averaged estimate of 868 (SE: 177) for the 2011 study area. Our estimate of abundance for the entire SH subpopulation (951; SE: 177) suggests that abundance has remained unchanged. However, this result should be interpreted cautiously because of the methodological differences between historical studies (physical capture) and this survey. A conservative management approach is warranted given the previous increases in the duration of the ice-free season, which are predicted to continue in the future, and previously documented declines in body condition and vital rates.

  18. Estimating abundance while accounting for rarity, correlated behavior, and other sources of variation in counts

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dorazio, Robert M.; Martin, Juulien; Edwards, Holly H.

    2013-01-01

    The class of N-mixture models allows abundance to be estimated from repeated, point count surveys while adjusting for imperfect detection of individuals. We developed an extension of N-mixture models to account for two commonly observed phenomena in point count surveys: rarity and lack of independence induced by unmeasurable sources of variation in the detectability of individuals. Rarity increases the number of locations with zero detections in excess of those expected under simple models of abundance (e.g., Poisson or negative binomial). Correlated behavior of individuals and other phenomena, though difficult to measure, increases the variation in detection probabilities among surveys. Our extension of N-mixture models includes a hurdle model of abundance and a beta-binomial model of detectability that accounts for additional (extra-binomial) sources of variation in detections among surveys. As an illustration, we fit this model to repeated point counts of the West Indian manatee, which was observed in a pilot study using aerial surveys. Our extension of N-mixture models provides increased flexibility. The effects of different sets of covariates may be estimated for the probability of occurrence of a species, for its mean abundance at occupied locations, and for its detectability.

  19. A double-observer approach for estimating detection probability and abundance from point counts

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.; Sauer, J.R.; Fallon, F.W.; Fallon, J.E.; Heglund, P.J.

    2000-01-01

    Although point counts are frequently used in ornithological studies, basic assumptions about detection probabilities often are untested. We apply a double-observer approach developed to estimate detection probabilities for aerial surveys (Cook and Jacobson 1979) to avian point counts. At each point count, a designated 'primary' observer indicates to another ('secondary') observer all birds detected. The secondary observer records all detections of the primary observer as well as any birds not detected by the primary observer. Observers alternate primary and secondary roles during the course of the survey. The approach permits estimation of observer-specific detection probabilities and bird abundance. We developed a set of models that incorporate different assumptions about sources of variation (e.g. observer, bird species) in detection probability. Seventeen field trials were conducted, and models were fit to the resulting data using program SURVIV. Single-observer point counts generally miss varying proportions of the birds actually present, and observer and bird species were found to be relevant sources of variation in detection probabilities. Overall detection probabilities (probability of being detected by at least one of the two observers) estimated using the double-observer approach were very high (>0.95), yielding precise estimates of avian abundance. We consider problems with the approach and recommend possible solutions, including restriction of the approach to fixed-radius counts to reduce the effect of variation in the effective radius of detection among various observers and to provide a basis for using spatial sampling to estimate bird abundance on large areas of interest. We believe that most questions meriting the effort required to carry out point counts also merit serious attempts to estimate detection probabilities associated with the counts. The double-observer approach is a method that can be used for this purpose.

  20. Variability in abundance of temperate reef fishes estimated by visual census.

    PubMed

    Irigoyen, Alejo J; Galván, David E; Venerus, Leonardo A; Parma, Ana M

    2013-01-01

    Identifying sources of sampling variation and quantifying their magnitude is critical to the interpretation of ecological field data. Yet, most monitoring programs of reef fish populations based on underwater visual censuses (UVC) consider only a few of the factors that may influence fish counts, such as the diver or census methodology. Recent studies, however, have drawn attention to a broader range of processes that introduce variability at different temporal scales. This study analyzes the magnitude of different sources of variation in UVCs of temperate reef fishes off Patagonia (Argentina). The variability associated with time-of-day, tidal state, and time elapsed between censuses (minutes, days, weeks and months) was quantified for censuses conducted on the five most conspicuous and common species: Pinguipes brasilianus, Pseudopercis semifasciata, Sebastes oculatus, Acanthistius patachonicus and Nemadactylus bergi. Variance components corresponding to spatial heterogeneity and to the different temporal scales were estimated using nested random models. The levels of variability estimated for the different species were related to their life history attributes and behavior. Neither time-of-day nor tidal state had a significant effect on counts, except for the influence of tide on P. brasilianus. Spatial heterogeneity was the dominant source of variance in all but one species. Among the temporal scales, the intra-annual variation was the highest component for most species due to marked seasonal fluctuations in abundance, followed by the weekly and the instantaneous variation; the daily component was not significant. The variability between censuses conducted at different tidal levels and time-of-day was similar in magnitude to the instantaneous variation, reinforcing the conclusion that stochastic variation at very short time scales is non-negligible and should be taken into account in the design of monitoring programs and experiments. The present study provides

  1. A multimodal detection model of dolphins to estimate abundance validated by field experiments.

    PubMed

    Akamatsu, Tomonari; Ura, Tamaki; Sugimatsu, Harumi; Bahl, Rajendar; Behera, Sandeep; Panda, Sudarsan; Khan, Muntaz; Kar, S K; Kar, C S; Kimura, Satoko; Sasaki-Yamamoto, Yukiko

    2013-09-01

    Abundance estimation of marine mammals requires matching of detection of an animal or a group of animal by two independent means. A multimodal detection model using visual and acoustic cues (surfacing and phonation) that enables abundance estimation of dolphins is proposed. The method does not require a specific time window to match the cues of both means for applying mark-recapture method. The proposed model was evaluated using data obtained in field observations of Ganges River dolphins and Irrawaddy dolphins, as examples of dispersed and condensed distributions of animals, respectively. The acoustic detection probability was approximately 80%, 20% higher than that of visual detection for both species, regardless of the distribution of the animals in present study sites. The abundance estimates of Ganges River dolphins and Irrawaddy dolphins fairly agreed with the numbers reported in previous monitoring studies. The single animal detection probability was smaller than that of larger cluster size, as predicted by the model and confirmed by field data. However, dense groups of Irrawaddy dolphins showed difference in cluster sizes observed by visual and acoustic methods. Lower detection probability of single clusters of this species seemed to be caused by the clumped distribution of this species.

  2. Assessing small mammal abundance with track-tube indices and mark-recapture population estimates

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wiewel, A.S.; Clark, W.R.; Sovada, M.A.

    2007-01-01

    We compared track-tube sampling with mark-recapture livetrapping and evaluated a track-tube index, defined as the number of track tubes with identifiable small mammal tracks during a 4-night period, as a predictor of small mammal abundance estimates in North Dakota grasslands. Meadow voles (Microtus pennsylvanicus) were the most commonly recorded species by both methods, but were underrepresented in track-tube sampling, whereas 13-lined ground squirrels (Spermophilus tridecemlineatus) and Franklin's ground squirrels (S. franklinii) were overrepresented in track-tube sampling. Estimates of average species richness were lower from track tubes than from livetrapping. Regression models revealed that the track-tube index was at best a moderately good predictor of small mammal population estimates because both the form (linear versus curvilinear) and slope of the relationship varied between years. In addition, 95% prediction intervals indicated low precision when predicting population estimates from new track-tube index observations. Track tubes required less time and expense than mark-recapture and eliminated handling of small mammals. Using track tubes along with mark-recapture in a double sampling for regression framework would have potential value when attempting to estimate abundance of small mammals over large areas. ?? 2007 American Society of Mammalogists.

  3. Estimating Sonoran pronghorn abundance and survival with fecal DNA and capture-recapture methods.

    PubMed

    Woodruff, Susannah P; Lukacs, Paul M; Christianson, David; Waits, Lisette P

    2016-10-01

    Population abundance estimates are important for management but can be challenging to determine in low-density, wide-ranging, and endangered species, such as Sonoran pronghorn (Antilocapra americana sonoriensis). The Sonoran pronghorn population has been increasing; however, population estimates are currently derived from a biennial aerial count that does not provide survival or recruitment estimates. We identified individuals through noninvasively collected fecal DNA and used robust-design capture-recapture to estimate abundance and survival for Sonoran pronghorn in the United States from 2013 to 2014. In 2014 we generated separate population estimates for pronghorn gathered near 13 different artificial water holes and for pronghorn not near water holes. The population using artificial water holes had 116 (95% CI 102-131) and 121 individuals (95% CI 112-132) in 2013 and 2014, respectively. For all locations, we estimated there were 144 individuals (95% CI 132-157). Adults had higher annual survival probabilities (0.83, 95% CI 0.69-0.92) than fawns (0.41, 95% CI 0.21-0.65). Our use of targeted noninvasive genetic sampling and capture-recapture with Sonoran pronghorn fecal DNA was an effective method for monitoring a large proportion of the population. Our results provided the first survival estimates for this population in over 2 decades and precise estimates of the population using artificial water holes. Our method could be used for targeted sampling of broadly distributed species in other systems, such as in African savanna ecosystems, where many species congregate at watering sites.

  4. Environmental Sequencing Provides Reasonable Estimates of the Relative Abundance of Specific Picoeukaryotes

    PubMed Central

    Forn, Irene; Romac, Sarah; Logares, Ramiro; de Vargas, Colomban

    2016-01-01

    diversity. HTS can provide a detailed picture of the taxa present in a community and can reveal diversity not evident using other methods, but it is still unclear what the meaning of the sequence abundance in a given taxon is. Our aim is to investigate the correspondence between the relative HTS signal and relative cell abundances in selected picoeukaryotic taxa. Environmental sequencing provides reasonable estimates of the relative abundance of specific taxa. Better results are obtained when using RNA extracts as the templates, while the region of 18S ribosomal DNA had different influences depending on the taxa assayed. PMID:27235440

  5. Modelling community dynamics based on species-level abundance models from detection/nondetection data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Yamaura, Yuichi; Royle, J. Andrew; Kuboi, Kouji; Tada, Tsuneo; Ikeno, Susumu; Makino, Shun'ichi

    2011-01-01

    1. In large-scale field surveys, a binary recording of each species' detection or nondetection has been increasingly adopted for its simplicity and low cost. Because of the importance of abundance in many studies, it is desirable to obtain inferences about abundance at species-, functional group-, and community-levels from such binary data. 2. We developed a novel hierarchical multi-species abundance model based on species-level detection/nondetection data. The model accounts for the existence of undetected species, and variability in abundance and detectability among species. Species-level detection/nondetection is linked to species- level abundance via a detection model that accommodates the expectation that probability of detection (at least one individuals is detected) increases with local abundance of the species. We applied this model to a 9-year dataset composed of the detection/nondetection of forest birds, at a single post-fire site (from 7 to 15 years after fire) in a montane area of central Japan. The model allocated undetected species into one of the predefined functional groups by assuming a prior distribution on individual group membership. 3. The results suggest that 15–20 species were missed in each year, and that species richness of communities and functional groups did not change with post-fire forest succession. Overall abundance of birds and abundance of functional groups tended to increase over time, although only in the winter, while decreases in detectabilities were observed in several species. 4. Synthesis and applications. Understanding and prediction of large-scale biodiversity dynamics partly hinge on how we can use data effectively. Our hierarchical model for detection/nondetection data estimates abundance in space/time at species-, functional group-, and community-levels while accounting for undetected individuals and species. It also permits comparison of multiple communities by many types of abundance-based diversity and similarity

  6. Evaluating the performance of methods for estimating the abundance of rapidly declining coastal shark populations.

    PubMed

    McCauley, Douglas J; McLean, Kevin A; Bauer, John; Young, Hillary S; Micheli, Fiorenza

    2012-03-01

    Accurately surveying shark populations is critical to monitoring precipitous ongoing declines in shark abundance and interpreting the effects that these reductions are having on ecosystems. To evaluate the effectiveness of existing survey tools, we used field trials and computer simulations to critically examine the operation of four common methods for counting coastal sharks: stationary point counts, belt transects, video surveys, and mark and recapture abundance estimators. Empirical and theoretical results suggest that (1) survey method selection has a strong impact on the estimates of shark density that are produced, (2) standardizations by survey duration are needed to properly interpret and compare survey outputs, (3) increasing survey size does not necessarily increase survey precision, and (4) methods that yield the highest density estimates are not always the most accurate. These findings challenge some of the assumptions traditionally associated with surveying mobile marine animals. Of the methods we trialed, 8 x 50 m belt transects and a 20 m radius point count produced the most accurate estimates of shark density. These findings can help to improve the ways we monitor, manage, and understand the ecology of globally imperiled coastal shark populations.

  7. Integrating acoustic telemetry into mark-recapture models to improve the precision of apparent survival and abundance estimates.

    PubMed

    Dudgeon, Christine L; Pollock, Kenneth H; Braccini, J Matias; Semmens, Jayson M; Barnett, Adam

    2015-07-01

    Capture-mark-recapture models are useful tools for estimating demographic parameters but often result in low precision when recapture rates are low. Low recapture rates are typical in many study systems including fishing-based studies. Incorporating auxiliary data into the models can improve precision and in some cases enable parameter estimation. Here, we present a novel application of acoustic telemetry for the estimation of apparent survival and abundance within capture-mark-recapture analysis using open population models. Our case study is based on simultaneously collecting longline fishing and acoustic telemetry data for a large mobile apex predator, the broadnose sevengill shark (Notorhynchus cepedianus), at a coastal site in Tasmania, Australia. Cormack-Jolly-Seber models showed that longline data alone had very low recapture rates while acoustic telemetry data for the same time period resulted in at least tenfold higher recapture rates. The apparent survival estimates were similar for the two datasets but the acoustic telemetry data showed much greater precision and enabled apparent survival parameter estimation for one dataset, which was inestimable using fishing data alone. Combined acoustic telemetry and longline data were incorporated into Jolly-Seber models using a Monte Carlo simulation approach. Abundance estimates were comparable to those with longline data only; however, the inclusion of acoustic telemetry data increased precision in the estimates. We conclude that acoustic telemetry is a useful tool for incorporating in capture-mark-recapture studies in the marine environment. Future studies should consider the application of acoustic telemetry within this framework when setting up the study design and sampling program.

  8. Estimating population abundance and mapping distribution of wintering sea ducks in coastal waters of the mid-Atlantic

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Koneff, M.D.; Royle, J. Andrew; Forsell, D.J.; Wortham, J.S.; Boomer, G.S.; Perry, M.C.

    2005-01-01

    Survey design for wintering scoters (Melanitta sp.) and other sea ducks that occur in offshore waters is challenging because these species have large ranges, are subject to distributional shifts among years and within a season, and can occur in aggregations. Interest in winter sea duck population abundance surveys has grown in recent years. This interest stems from concern over the population status of some sea ducks, limitations of extant breeding waterfowl survey programs in North America and logistical challenges and costs of conducting surveys in northern breeding regions, high winter area philopatry in some species and potential conservation implications, and increasing concern over offshore development and other threats to sea duck wintering habitats. The efficiency and practicality of statistically-rigorous monitoring strategies for mobile, aggregated wintering sea duck populations have not been sufficiently investigated. This study evaluated a 2-phase adaptive stratified strip transect sampling plan to estimate wintering population size of scoters, long-tailed ducks (Clangua hyemalis), and other sea ducks and provide information on distribution. The sampling plan results in an optimal allocation of a fixed sampling effort among offshore strata in the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast region. Phase I transect selection probabilities were based on historic distribution and abundance data, while Phase 2 selection probabilities were based on observations made during Phase 1 flights. Distance sampling methods were used to estimate detection rates. Environmental variables thought to affect detection rates were recorded during the survey and post-stratification and covariate modeling were investigated to reduce the effect of heterogeneity on detection estimation. We assessed cost-precision tradeoffs under a number of fixed-cost sampling scenarios using Monte Carlo simulation. We discuss advantages and limitations of this sampling design for estimating wintering sea duck

  9. Mnemiopsis leidyi (Ctenophora) in Narragansett Bay, 1975-1979: Abundance, size composition and estimation of grazing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deason, Ellen E.

    1982-08-01

    Surveys of the distribution, abundance and size of the ctenophore Mnemiopsis leidyi were carried out in Narragansett Bay, R.I. over a 5-year period, 1975-1979. Yearly variations were observed in time of initiation of the ctenophore increase and maximum abundance. Biomass maxima ranged from 0·2 to 3 g dry weight m -3 at Station 2 in lower Narragansett Bay while maximum abundance varied from 20 to 100 animals m -3. Ctenophores less than 1 cm in length generally composed up to 50% of the biomass and 95% of the numerical abundance during the peak of the M. leidyi pulse. During the 1978 maxima and the declining stages of the pulse each year, 100% of the population was composed of small animals. M. leidyi populations increased earlier, reached greater maximum abundances, and were more highly dominated by small animals in the upper bay than toward the mouth of the bay. The averageclearance rate of M. leidyi larvae feeding on A. tonsa at 22°C was 0·36 l mg -1 dry weight day -1, with apparent selection for nauplii relative to copepodites. Predation and excretion rates applied to ctenophore biomass estimated for Narragansett Bay indicated that M. leidyi excretion is minor but predation removed a bay-wide mean of 20% of the zooplankton standing stock daily during August of 1975 and 1976. Variation in M. leidyi predation at Station 2 was inversely related to mean zooplankton biomass during August and September, which increased 4-fold during the 5-year period.

  10. Breeding chorus indices are weakly related to estimated abundance of boreal chorus frogs

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Corn, P.S.; Muths, E.; Kissel, A.M.; Scherer, R. D.

    2011-01-01

    Call surveys used to monitor breeding choruses of anuran amphibians generate index values that are frequently used to represent the number of male frogs present, but few studies have quantified this relationship. We compared abundance of male Boreal Chorus Frogs (Pseudacris maculata), estimated using capture–recapture methods in two populations in Colorado, to call index values derived from automated recordings. Single index values, such as might result from large monitoring efforts, were unrelated to population size. A synthetic call saturation index (CSI), the daily proportion of the maximum possible sum of index values derived from multiple recordings, was greater in larger populations, but the relationship was not highly predictive.

  11. READSCAN: a fast and scalable pathogen discovery program with accurate genome relative abundance estimation

    PubMed Central

    Rashid, Mamoon; Pain, Arnab

    2013-01-01

    Summary: READSCAN is a highly scalable parallel program to identify non-host sequences (of potential pathogen origin) and estimate their genome relative abundance in high-throughput sequence datasets. READSCAN accurately classified human and viral sequences on a 20.1 million reads simulated dataset in <27 min using a small Beowulf compute cluster with 16 nodes (Supplementary Material). Availability: http://cbrc.kaust.edu.sa/readscan Contact: arnab.pain@kaust.edu.sa or raeece.naeem@gmail.com Supplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. PMID:23193222

  12. Multidimensional metrics for estimating phage abundance, distribution, gene density, and sequence coverage in metagenomes

    SciTech Connect

    Aziz, Ramy K.; Dwivedi, Bhakti; Akhter, Sajia; Breitbart, Mya; Edwards, Robert A.

    2015-05-08

    Phages are the most abundant biological entities on Earth and play major ecological roles, yet the current sequenced phage genomes do not adequately represent their diversity, and little is known about the abundance and distribution of these sequenced genomes in nature. Although the study of phage ecology has benefited tremendously from the emergence of metagenomic sequencing, a systematic survey of phage genes and genomes in various ecosystems is still lacking, and fundamental questions about phage biology, lifestyle, and ecology remain unanswered. To address these questions and improve comparative analysis of phages in different metagenomes, we screened a core set of publicly available metagenomic samples for sequences related to completely sequenced phages using the web tool, Phage Eco-Locator. We then adopted and deployed an array of mathematical and statistical metrics for a multidimensional estimation of the abundance and distribution of phage genes and genomes in various ecosystems. Experiments using those metrics individually showed their usefulness in emphasizing the pervasive, yet uneven, distribution of known phage sequences in environmental metagenomes. Using these metrics in combination allowed us to resolve phage genomes into clusters that correlated with their genotypes and taxonomic classes as well as their ecological properties. By adding this set of metrics to current metaviromic analysis pipelines, where they can provide insight regarding phage mosaicism, habitat specificity, and evolution.

  13. Multidimensional metrics for estimating phage abundance, distribution, gene density, and sequence coverage in metagenomes

    DOE PAGES

    Aziz, Ramy K.; Dwivedi, Bhakti; Akhter, Sajia; ...

    2015-05-08

    Phages are the most abundant biological entities on Earth and play major ecological roles, yet the current sequenced phage genomes do not adequately represent their diversity, and little is known about the abundance and distribution of these sequenced genomes in nature. Although the study of phage ecology has benefited tremendously from the emergence of metagenomic sequencing, a systematic survey of phage genes and genomes in various ecosystems is still lacking, and fundamental questions about phage biology, lifestyle, and ecology remain unanswered. To address these questions and improve comparative analysis of phages in different metagenomes, we screened a core set ofmore » publicly available metagenomic samples for sequences related to completely sequenced phages using the web tool, Phage Eco-Locator. We then adopted and deployed an array of mathematical and statistical metrics for a multidimensional estimation of the abundance and distribution of phage genes and genomes in various ecosystems. Experiments using those metrics individually showed their usefulness in emphasizing the pervasive, yet uneven, distribution of known phage sequences in environmental metagenomes. Using these metrics in combination allowed us to resolve phage genomes into clusters that correlated with their genotypes and taxonomic classes as well as their ecological properties. By adding this set of metrics to current metaviromic analysis pipelines, where they can provide insight regarding phage mosaicism, habitat specificity, and evolution.« less

  14. Multidimensional metrics for estimating phage abundance, distribution, gene density, and sequence coverage in metagenomes.

    PubMed

    Aziz, Ramy K; Dwivedi, Bhakti; Akhter, Sajia; Breitbart, Mya; Edwards, Robert A

    2015-01-01

    Phages are the most abundant biological entities on Earth and play major ecological roles, yet the current sequenced phage genomes do not adequately represent their diversity, and little is known about the abundance and distribution of these sequenced genomes in nature. Although the study of phage ecology has benefited tremendously from the emergence of metagenomic sequencing, a systematic survey of phage genes and genomes in various ecosystems is still lacking, and fundamental questions about phage biology, lifestyle, and ecology remain unanswered. To address these questions and improve comparative analysis of phages in different metagenomes, we screened a core set of publicly available metagenomic samples for sequences related to completely sequenced phages using the web tool, Phage Eco-Locator. We then adopted and deployed an array of mathematical and statistical metrics for a multidimensional estimation of the abundance and distribution of phage genes and genomes in various ecosystems. Experiments using those metrics individually showed their usefulness in emphasizing the pervasive, yet uneven, distribution of known phage sequences in environmental metagenomes. Using these metrics in combination allowed us to resolve phage genomes into clusters that correlated with their genotypes and taxonomic classes as well as their ecological properties. We propose adding this set of metrics to current metaviromic analysis pipelines, where they can provide insight regarding phage mosaicism, habitat specificity, and evolution.

  15. Multidimensional metrics for estimating phage abundance, distribution, gene density, and sequence coverage in metagenomes

    PubMed Central

    Aziz, Ramy K.; Dwivedi, Bhakti; Akhter, Sajia; Breitbart, Mya; Edwards, Robert A.

    2015-01-01

    Phages are the most abundant biological entities on Earth and play major ecological roles, yet the current sequenced phage genomes do not adequately represent their diversity, and little is known about the abundance and distribution of these sequenced genomes in nature. Although the study of phage ecology has benefited tremendously from the emergence of metagenomic sequencing, a systematic survey of phage genes and genomes in various ecosystems is still lacking, and fundamental questions about phage biology, lifestyle, and ecology remain unanswered. To address these questions and improve comparative analysis of phages in different metagenomes, we screened a core set of publicly available metagenomic samples for sequences related to completely sequenced phages using the web tool, Phage Eco-Locator. We then adopted and deployed an array of mathematical and statistical metrics for a multidimensional estimation of the abundance and distribution of phage genes and genomes in various ecosystems. Experiments using those metrics individually showed their usefulness in emphasizing the pervasive, yet uneven, distribution of known phage sequences in environmental metagenomes. Using these metrics in combination allowed us to resolve phage genomes into clusters that correlated with their genotypes and taxonomic classes as well as their ecological properties. We propose adding this set of metrics to current metaviromic analysis pipelines, where they can provide insight regarding phage mosaicism, habitat specificity, and evolution. PMID:26005436

  16. Estimating the size and abundance of dark matter subhaloes with gravitational millilensing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vives-Arias, H.; Jiménez-Vicente, J.; Muñoz, J. A.; Mediavilla, E.

    2017-03-01

    We use 8 gravitational lens systems with quadruply imaged quasars and their observed flux ratio anomalies obtained using data in mid-infrared, radio or spectral narrow lines as a baseline, to estimate the amount of substructure in the dark matter halo of lens galaxies. We assume that the smooth gravitational potential of the galaxies is well modeled by a Singular Isothermal Ellipsoid (SIE) plus external shear (γ) and an additional Singular Isothermal Sphere (SIS) in some cases, and that the cause of the flux ratio anomalies is dark matter subhalos described by pseudo-Jaffe density profiles. Our Bayesian estimate for the Einstein radius of the subhalos is b = 0.0003^{+0.0005}_{-0.0002} arcsec, and their abundance (as a fraction of the total surface density of the lens galaxy at the image positions) is α =Ê0.075^{+0.030}_{-0.021}.

  17. Estimating species – area relationships by modeling abundance and frequency subject to incomplete sampling

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Yamaura, Yuichi; Connor, Edward F.; Royle, Andy; Itoh, Katsuo; Sato, Kiyoshi; Taki, Hisatomo; Mishima, Yoshio

    2016-01-01

    Models and data used to describe species–area relationships confound sampling with ecological process as they fail to acknowledge that estimates of species richness arise due to sampling. This compromises our ability to make ecological inferences from and about species–area relationships. We develop and illustrate hierarchical community models of abundance and frequency to estimate species richness. The models we propose separate sampling from ecological processes by explicitly accounting for the fact that sampled patches are seldom completely covered by sampling plots and that individuals present in the sampling plots are imperfectly detected. We propose a multispecies abundance model in which community assembly is treated as the summation of an ensemble of species-level Poisson processes and estimate patch-level species richness as a derived parameter. We use sampling process models appropriate for specific survey methods. We propose a multispecies frequency model that treats the number of plots in which a species occurs as a binomial process. We illustrate these models using data collected in surveys of early-successional bird species and plants in young forest plantation patches. Results indicate that only mature forest plant species deviated from the constant density hypothesis, but the null model suggested that the deviations were too small to alter the form of species–area relationships. Nevertheless, results from simulations clearly show that the aggregate pattern of individual species density–area relationships and occurrence probability–area relationships can alter the form of species–area relationships. The plant community model estimated that only half of the species present in the regional species pool were encountered during the survey. The modeling framework we propose explicitly accounts for sampling processes so that ecological processes can be examined free of sampling artefacts. Our modeling approach is extensible and could be applied

  18. How should detection probability be incorporated into estimates of relative abundance?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    MacKenzie, D.I.; Kendall, W.L.

    2002-01-01

    Determination of the relative abundance of two populations, separated by time or space, is of interest in many ecological situations. We focus on two estimators of relative abundance, which assume that the probability that an individual is detected at least once in the survey is either equal or unequal for the two populations. We present three methods for incorporating the collected information into our inference. The first method, proposed previously, is a traditional hypothesis test for evidence that detection probabilities are unequal. However, we feel that, a priori, it is more likely that detection probabilities are actually different; hence, the burden of proof should be shifted, requiring evidence that detection probabilities are practically equivalent. The second method we present, equivalence testing, is one approach to doing so. Third, we suggest that model averaging could be used by combining the two estimators according to derived model weights. These differing approaches are applied to a mark-recapture experiment on Nuttail's cottontail rabbit (Sylvilagus nuttallii) conducted in central Oregon during 1974 and 1975, which has been previously analyzed by other authors.

  19. Relationships between recapture rates from different gears for estimating walleye abundance in northern Wisconsin lakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rogers, M.W.; Hansen, M.J.; Beard, T.D.

    2005-01-01

    Maximizing sampling efficiency and reducing sampling costs are desirable goals for fisheries management agencies. Expensive and labor-intensive methods (such as mark-recapture) are commonly used to estimate the population abundance of walleye Sander vitreus, but more efficient methods may be available. We compared recapture rates from surveys and harvests to evaluate the efficiency of currently used recapture gears and the potential for using gears that require less effort. To evaluate the usefulness of walleye harvest as mark-recapture samples, we used errors-in-variables models to determine whether recapture rates differed between fyke-netting and spearing, electrofishing and spearing, and electrofishing and angling. We found no significant differences between fyke-netting and adult walleye electrofishing recapture rates or between spearing and adult walleye electrofishing recapture rates. In contrast, we found that recapture rates from angling and electrofishing differed significantly in lakes with and without minimum length limits. We concluded that the lack of significant differences between the slopes of some harvest and survey recapture rates may allow the use of harvest recapture rates to estimate walleye abundance, but the biases associated with each gear should be considered. We also concluded that more attention should be given to understanding the biases of recapture gears. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2005.

  20. Fitting statistical distributions to sea duck count data: implications for survey design and abundance estimation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Zipkin, Elise F.; Leirness, Jeffery B.; Kinlan, Brian P.; O'Connell, Allan F.; Silverman, Emily D.

    2014-01-01

    Determining appropriate statistical distributions for modeling animal count data is important for accurate estimation of abundance, distribution, and trends. In the case of sea ducks along the U.S. Atlantic coast, managers want to estimate local and regional abundance to detect and track population declines, to define areas of high and low use, and to predict the impact of future habitat change on populations. In this paper, we used a modified marked point process to model survey data that recorded flock sizes of Common eiders, Long-tailed ducks, and Black, Surf, and White-winged scoters. The data come from an experimental aerial survey, conducted by the United States Fish & Wildlife Service (USFWS) Division of Migratory Bird Management, during which east-west transects were flown along the Atlantic Coast from Maine to Florida during the winters of 2009–2011. To model the number of flocks per transect (the points), we compared the fit of four statistical distributions (zero-inflated Poisson, zero-inflated geometric, zero-inflated negative binomial and negative binomial) to data on the number of species-specific sea duck flocks that were recorded for each transect flown. To model the flock sizes (the marks), we compared the fit of flock size data for each species to seven statistical distributions: positive Poisson, positive negative binomial, positive geometric, logarithmic, discretized lognormal, zeta and Yule–Simon. Akaike’s Information Criterion and Vuong’s closeness tests indicated that the negative binomial and discretized lognormal were the best distributions for all species for the points and marks, respectively. These findings have important implications for estimating sea duck abundances as the discretized lognormal is a more skewed distribution than the Poisson and negative binomial, which are frequently used to model avian counts; the lognormal is also less heavy-tailed than the power law distributions (e.g., zeta and Yule–Simon), which are

  1. Reconciling LCROSS and Orbital Neutron Water Abundance Estimates in Cabeus Crater

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Elphic, Richard; Teodoro, Luis F.; Eke, Vincent R.; Paige, David A.; Siegler, Matthew A.; Colaprete, Anthony

    2011-01-01

    The Lunar Prospector Neutron Spectrometer (LPNS) first revealed Cabeus crater (84.9 deg S, 35.5degW) as having the highest inferred hydrogen on the Moon. Because of the broad LPNS footprint (approximately 40 km FWHM), the apparent peak water-equivalent hydrogen (WEH) concentration is only approximately 0.25 wt%, but could be much higher in smaller areas than the spectrometer footprint. Earlier image reconstruction work suggested that areas within permanent shadow have abundances approximately 1 wt% WEH. However, the LCROSS impact yielded total water estimates, ice plus vapor, of between 3 and 10 wt%. The large disagreement between LCROSS and apparent orbital values imply that either the ice is buried, by perhaps as much as 50 to 100 cm; or the ice distribution within Cabeus is spatially inhomogeneous, or both. Modeling reveals that the areal extent of a "shallow permafrost zone" is far greater than the area of permanent shadow. Ice can be virtually stable for billions of years within a few tens of centimeters of the surface in these areas. However, the LCROSS impact took place in an area of permanent shadow. If stably-trapped volatiles can be found in locales that receive occasional, oblique sunlight, landed missions may target these sites and eventual resource exploitation may be done more easily. Are orbital neutron data consistent with areally-extensive, volatile-rich cold traps? Orbital epithermal neutron data over the northern half of Cabeus (near the LCROSS impact site) are consistent with 0.2 wt% WEH or less in the "permafrost zone" near the crater. On the other hand, pixon reconstructions that confine the hydrogen enhancements to permanent shadow result in higher abundance estimates -- around 1 wt% if homogeneously mixed. But if the PSR abundance is increased to 10 wt%, consistent with the sum of all H-bearing compounds seen by LCROSS, a much larger-than-observed reduction in neutron count rate would be seen from orbit. It is likely that volatiles are

  2. Estimates of Abundance and Trend of Chilean Blue Whales off Isla de Chiloé, Chile

    PubMed Central

    Cabrera, Elsa; Carlson, Carole A.; Brownell, Robert L.

    2017-01-01

    Since 1970, blue whales (Balaenoptera musculus) have been seen feeding in the waters off southern Chile during the summer and autumn (December to May). Investigation of the genetic, acoustic and morphological characteristics of these blue whales shows that they are a distinct but unnamed subspecies, called the Chilean blue whales. Photo-identification surveys have been conducted in the waters off northwestern Isla Grande de Chiloé, southern Chile from 2004–2012 and Isla Chañaral, central Chile in 2012. Over this time, 1,070 blue whales were encountered yielding, after photo-quality control, 318 and 267 unique photographs of the left and right side of the flank respectively. Using mark-recapture analysis of left and right side photographs collected from Isla Grande de Chiloé (2004–2012), open population models estimate that ~570–760 whales are feeding seasonally in this region. POPAN superpopulation abundance estimates for the same feeding ground in 2012 are 762 (95% confidence intervals, CI = 638–933) and 570 (95% CI 475–705) for left and right side datasets respectively, very similar to results from closed population models. Estimates of trend revealed strong variation in abundance, peaking in 2009 and [suggesting] fluctuating use in the survey area over time, likely related to the density of their prey. High inter-annual return rates suggest a degree of site-fidelity of individuals to Isla Grande de Chiloé and that the number of whales using this feeding ground is relatively small. PMID:28081160

  3. Estimates of Abundance and Trend of Chilean Blue Whales off Isla de Chiloé, Chile.

    PubMed

    Galletti Vernazzani, Barbara; Jackson, Jennifer A; Cabrera, Elsa; Carlson, Carole A; Brownell, Robert L

    2017-01-01

    Since 1970, blue whales (Balaenoptera musculus) have been seen feeding in the waters off southern Chile during the summer and autumn (December to May). Investigation of the genetic, acoustic and morphological characteristics of these blue whales shows that they are a distinct but unnamed subspecies, called the Chilean blue whales. Photo-identification surveys have been conducted in the waters off northwestern Isla Grande de Chiloé, southern Chile from 2004-2012 and Isla Chañaral, central Chile in 2012. Over this time, 1,070 blue whales were encountered yielding, after photo-quality control, 318 and 267 unique photographs of the left and right side of the flank respectively. Using mark-recapture analysis of left and right side photographs collected from Isla Grande de Chiloé (2004-2012), open population models estimate that ~570-760 whales are feeding seasonally in this region. POPAN superpopulation abundance estimates for the same feeding ground in 2012 are 762 (95% confidence intervals, CI = 638-933) and 570 (95% CI 475-705) for left and right side datasets respectively, very similar to results from closed population models. Estimates of trend revealed strong variation in abundance, peaking in 2009 and [suggesting] fluctuating use in the survey area over time, likely related to the density of their prey. High inter-annual return rates suggest a degree of site-fidelity of individuals to Isla Grande de Chiloé and that the number of whales using this feeding ground is relatively small.

  4. A spatially explicit estimate of the prewhaling abundance of the endangered North Atlantic right whale.

    PubMed

    Monsarrat, Sophie; Pennino, M Grazia; Smith, Tim D; Reeves, Randall R; Meynard, Christine N; Kaplan, David M; Rodrigues, Ana S L

    2016-08-01

    The North Atlantic right whale (NARW) (Eubalaena glacialis) is one of the world's most threatened whales. It came close to extinction after nearly a millennium of exploitation and currently persists as a population of only approximately 500 individuals. Setting appropriate conservation targets for this species requires an understanding of its historical population size, as a baseline for measuring levels of depletion and progress toward recovery. This is made difficult by the scarcity of records over this species' long whaling history. We sought to estimate the preexploitation population size of the North Atlantic right whale and understand how this species was distributed across its range. We used a spatially explicit data set on historical catches of North Pacific right whales (NPRWs) (Eubalaena japonica) to model the relationship between right whale relative density and the environment during the summer feeding season. Assuming the 2 right whale species select similar environments, we projected this model to the North Atlantic to predict how the relative abundance of NARWs varied across their range. We calibrated these relative abundances with estimates of the NPRW total prewhaling population size to obtain high and low estimates for the overall NARW population size prior to exploitation. The model predicted 9,075-21,328 right whales in the North Atlantic. The current NARW population is thus <6% of the historical North Atlantic carrying capacity and has enormous potential for recovery. According to the model, in June-September NARWs concentrated in 2 main feeding areas: east of the Grand Banks of Newfoundland and in the Norwegian Sea. These 2 areas may become important in the future as feeding grounds and may already be used more regularly by this endangered species than is thought.

  5. Accounting for non-independent detection when estimating abundance of organisms with a Bayesian approach

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Martin, Julien; Royle, J. Andrew; MacKenzie, Darryl I.; Edwards, Holly H.; Kery, Marc; Gardner, Beth

    2011-01-01

    Summary 1. Binomial mixture models use repeated count data to estimate abundance. They are becoming increasingly popular because they provide a simple and cost-effective way to account for imperfect detection. However, these models assume that individuals are detected independently of each other. This assumption may often be violated in the field. For instance, manatees (Trichechus manatus latirostris) may surface in turbid water (i.e. become available for detection during aerial surveys) in a correlated manner (i.e. in groups). However, correlated behaviour, affecting the non-independence of individual detections, may also be relevant in other systems (e.g. correlated patterns of singing in birds and amphibians). 2. We extend binomial mixture models to account for correlated behaviour and therefore to account for non-independent detection of individuals. We simulated correlated behaviour using beta-binomial random variables. Our approach can be used to simultaneously estimate abundance, detection probability and a correlation parameter. 3. Fitting binomial mixture models to data that followed a beta-binomial distribution resulted in an overestimation of abundance even for moderate levels of correlation. In contrast, the beta-binomial mixture model performed considerably better in our simulation scenarios. We also present a goodness-of-fit procedure to evaluate the fit of beta-binomial mixture models. 4. We illustrate our approach by fitting both binomial and beta-binomial mixture models to aerial survey data of manatees in Florida. We found that the binomial mixture model did not fit the data, whereas there was no evidence of lack of fit for the beta-binomial mixture model. This example helps illustrate the importance of using simulations and assessing goodness-of-fit when analysing ecological data with N-mixture models. Indeed, both the simulations and the goodness-of-fit procedure highlighted the limitations of the standard binomial mixture model for aerial

  6. Estimating forest species abundance through linear unmixing of CHRIS/PROBA imagery

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stagakis, Stavros; Vanikiotis, Theofilos; Sykioti, Olga

    2016-09-01

    The advancing technology of hyperspectral remote sensing offers the opportunity of accurate land cover characterization of complex natural environments. In this study, a linear spectral unmixing algorithm that incorporates a novel hierarchical Bayesian approach (BI-ICE) was applied on two spatially and temporally adjacent CHRIS/PROBA images over a forest in North Pindos National Park (Epirus, Greece). The scope is to investigate the potential of this algorithm to discriminate two different forest species (i.e. beech - Fagus sylvatica, pine - Pinus nigra) and produce accurate species-specific abundance maps. The unmixing results were evaluated in uniformly distributed plots across the test site using measured fractions of each species derived by very high resolution aerial orthophotos. Landsat-8 images were also used to produce a conventional discrete-type classification map of the test site. This map was used to define the exact borders of the test site and compare the thematic information of the two mapping approaches (discrete vs abundance mapping). The required ground truth information, regarding training and validation of the applied mapping methodologies, was collected during a field campaign across the study site. Abundance estimates reached very good overall accuracy (R2 = 0.98, RMSE = 0.06). The most significant source of error in our results was due to the shadowing effects that were very intense in some areas of the test site due to the low solar elevation during CHRIS acquisitions. It is also demonstrated that the two mapping approaches are in accordance across pure and dense forest areas, but the conventional classification map fails to describe the natural spatial gradients of each species and the actual species mixture across the test site. Overall, the BI-ICE algorithm presented increased potential to unmix challenging objects with high spectral similarity, such as different vegetation species, under real and not optimum acquisition conditions. Its

  7. A sampling design and model for estimating abundance of Nile crocodiles while accounting for heterogeneity of detectability of multiple observers

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Shirley, Matthew H.; Dorazio, Robert M.; Abassery, Ekramy; Elhady, Amr A.; Mekki, Mohammed S.; Asran, Hosni H.

    2012-01-01

    As part of the development of a management program for Nile crocodiles in Lake Nasser, Egypt, we used a dependent double-observer sampling protocol with multiple observers to compute estimates of population size. To analyze the data, we developed a hierarchical model that allowed us to assess variation in detection probabilities among observers and survey dates, as well as account for variation in crocodile abundance among sites and habitats. We conducted surveys from July 2008-June 2009 in 15 areas of Lake Nasser that were representative of 3 main habitat categories. During these surveys, we sampled 1,086 km of lake shore wherein we detected 386 crocodiles. Analysis of the data revealed significant variability in both inter- and intra-observer detection probabilities. Our raw encounter rate was 0.355 crocodiles/km. When we accounted for observer effects and habitat, we estimated a surface population abundance of 2,581 (2,239-2,987, 95% credible intervals) crocodiles in Lake Nasser. Our results underscore the importance of well-trained, experienced monitoring personnel in order to decrease heterogeneity in intra-observer detection probability and to better detect changes in the population based on survey indices. This study will assist the Egyptian government establish a monitoring program as an integral part of future crocodile harvest activities in Lake Nasser

  8. Re-Constructing Historical Adélie Penguin Abundance Estimates by Retrospectively Accounting for Detection Bias

    PubMed Central

    Southwell, Colin; Emmerson, Louise; Newbery, Kym; McKinlay, John; Kerry, Knowles; Woehler, Eric; Ensor, Paul

    2015-01-01

    Seabirds and other land-breeding marine predators are considered to be useful and practical indicators of the state of marine ecosystems because of their dependence on marine prey and the accessibility of their populations at breeding colonies. Historical counts of breeding populations of these higher-order marine predators are one of few data sources available for inferring past change in marine ecosystems. However, historical abundance estimates derived from these population counts may be subject to unrecognised bias and uncertainty because of variable attendance of birds at breeding colonies and variable timing of past population surveys. We retrospectively accounted for detection bias in historical abundance estimates of the colonial, land-breeding Adélie penguin through an analysis of 222 historical abundance estimates from 81 breeding sites in east Antarctica. The published abundance estimates were de-constructed to retrieve the raw count data and then re-constructed by applying contemporary adjustment factors obtained from remotely operating time-lapse cameras. The re-construction process incorporated spatial and temporal variation in phenology and attendance by using data from cameras deployed at multiple sites over multiple years and propagating this uncertainty through to the final revised abundance estimates. Our re-constructed abundance estimates were consistently higher and more uncertain than published estimates. The re-constructed estimates alter the conclusions reached for some sites in east Antarctica in recent assessments of long-term Adélie penguin population change. Our approach is applicable to abundance data for a wide range of colonial, land-breeding marine species including other penguin species, flying seabirds and marine mammals. PMID:25909636

  9. Re-constructing historical Adélie penguin abundance estimates by retrospectively accounting for detection bias.

    PubMed

    Southwell, Colin; Emmerson, Louise; Newbery, Kym; McKinlay, John; Kerry, Knowles; Woehler, Eric; Ensor, Paul

    2015-01-01

    Seabirds and other land-breeding marine predators are considered to be useful and practical indicators of the state of marine ecosystems because of their dependence on marine prey and the accessibility of their populations at breeding colonies. Historical counts of breeding populations of these higher-order marine predators are one of few data sources available for inferring past change in marine ecosystems. However, historical abundance estimates derived from these population counts may be subject to unrecognised bias and uncertainty because of variable attendance of birds at breeding colonies and variable timing of past population surveys. We retrospectively accounted for detection bias in historical abundance estimates of the colonial, land-breeding Adélie penguin through an analysis of 222 historical abundance estimates from 81 breeding sites in east Antarctica. The published abundance estimates were de-constructed to retrieve the raw count data and then re-constructed by applying contemporary adjustment factors obtained from remotely operating time-lapse cameras. The re-construction process incorporated spatial and temporal variation in phenology and attendance by using data from cameras deployed at multiple sites over multiple years and propagating this uncertainty through to the final revised abundance estimates. Our re-constructed abundance estimates were consistently higher and more uncertain than published estimates. The re-constructed estimates alter the conclusions reached for some sites in east Antarctica in recent assessments of long-term Adélie penguin population change. Our approach is applicable to abundance data for a wide range of colonial, land-breeding marine species including other penguin species, flying seabirds and marine mammals.

  10. Uncommon or cryptic? Challenges in estimating leopard seal abundance by conventional but state-of-the-art methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Southwell, Colin; Paxton, Charles G. M.; Borchers, David; Boveng, Peter; Rogers, Tracey; de la Mare, William K.

    2008-04-01

    The method traditionally used to estimate pack-ice seal abundance employs sighting surveys from ships or aircraft to estimate the number of seals hauled out on the ice, combined with studies of haul-out behaviour to estimate the proportion of time spent on the ice. Application of this approach has been improved in recent times by developments in survey methodology and satellite technology that theoretically allow biases in the estimation of hauled-out abundance and haul-out behaviour to be accounted for that previously could not be addressed. A survey using these conventional but state-of-the-art methods was undertaken in the summer of 1999/2000 off east Antarctica between longitudes 64°E and 150°E to estimate the abundance of leopard ( Hydrurga leptonyx) and other pack-ice seal species. Because they are either uncommon or very cryptic, very few leopard seals were encountered despite a large survey effort. This presented challenges in both application of the methods and analysis of the data. Abundance estimates were derived using a number of plausible predictive models. The model considered as the most reliable returned best estimates of 7300 and 12,100 for definite and definite plus probable leopard seal sightings, respectively, with 95% confidence intervals of 3700-14,500 and 7100-23,400. These estimates are likely to be negatively biased and should be treated as minimum estimates only.

  11. Trap array configuration influences estimates and precision of black bear density and abundance.

    PubMed

    Wilton, Clay M; Puckett, Emily E; Beringer, Jeff; Gardner, Beth; Eggert, Lori S; Belant, Jerrold L

    2014-01-01

    Spatial capture-recapture (SCR) models have advanced our ability to estimate population density for wide ranging animals by explicitly incorporating individual movement. Though these models are more robust to various spatial sampling designs, few studies have empirically tested different large-scale trap configurations using SCR models. We investigated how extent of trap coverage and trap spacing affects precision and accuracy of SCR parameters, implementing models using the R package secr. We tested two trapping scenarios, one spatially extensive and one intensive, using black bear (Ursus americanus) DNA data from hair snare arrays in south-central Missouri, USA. We also examined the influence that adding a second, lower barbed-wire strand to snares had on quantity and spatial distribution of detections. We simulated trapping data to test bias in density estimates of each configuration under a range of density and detection parameter values. Field data showed that using multiple arrays with intensive snare coverage produced more detections of more individuals than extensive coverage. Consequently, density and detection parameters were more precise for the intensive design. Density was estimated as 1.7 bears per 100 km2 and was 5.5 times greater than that under extensive sampling. Abundance was 279 (95% CI = 193-406) bears in the 16,812 km2 study area. Excluding detections from the lower strand resulted in the loss of 35 detections, 14 unique bears, and the largest recorded movement between snares. All simulations showed low bias for density under both configurations. Results demonstrated that in low density populations with non-uniform distribution of population density, optimizing the tradeoff among snare spacing, coverage, and sample size is of critical importance to estimating parameters with high precision and accuracy. With limited resources, allocating available traps to multiple arrays with intensive trap spacing increased the amount of information

  12. Trap Array Configuration Influences Estimates and Precision of Black Bear Density and Abundance

    PubMed Central

    Wilton, Clay M.; Puckett, Emily E.; Beringer, Jeff; Gardner, Beth; Eggert, Lori S.; Belant, Jerrold L.

    2014-01-01

    Spatial capture-recapture (SCR) models have advanced our ability to estimate population density for wide ranging animals by explicitly incorporating individual movement. Though these models are more robust to various spatial sampling designs, few studies have empirically tested different large-scale trap configurations using SCR models. We investigated how extent of trap coverage and trap spacing affects precision and accuracy of SCR parameters, implementing models using the R package secr. We tested two trapping scenarios, one spatially extensive and one intensive, using black bear (Ursus americanus) DNA data from hair snare arrays in south-central Missouri, USA. We also examined the influence that adding a second, lower barbed-wire strand to snares had on quantity and spatial distribution of detections. We simulated trapping data to test bias in density estimates of each configuration under a range of density and detection parameter values. Field data showed that using multiple arrays with intensive snare coverage produced more detections of more individuals than extensive coverage. Consequently, density and detection parameters were more precise for the intensive design. Density was estimated as 1.7 bears per 100 km2 and was 5.5 times greater than that under extensive sampling. Abundance was 279 (95% CI = 193–406) bears in the 16,812 km2 study area. Excluding detections from the lower strand resulted in the loss of 35 detections, 14 unique bears, and the largest recorded movement between snares. All simulations showed low bias for density under both configurations. Results demonstrated that in low density populations with non-uniform distribution of population density, optimizing the tradeoff among snare spacing, coverage, and sample size is of critical importance to estimating parameters with high precision and accuracy. With limited resources, allocating available traps to multiple arrays with intensive trap spacing increased the amount of information

  13. Ground-based column abundance measurements of atmospheric hydroxyl

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burnett, Clyde R.

    1988-04-01

    The preliminary results of ground-based OH column abundance measurements from Truk, Federated States of Micronesia, are contained. These are the first OH column measurements from the tropics, and constitute a signficcant contribution to the OH data base. Comparisons of tropical OH behavior with the extensive mid-latitude observations serve as a critical test of the current understanding of the HO (sub x) photochemistry and its relationship to the other major chemical families. The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in tropical stratospheric winds exerts a major influence on the Hadley cell vertical transport. Related QBOs in total O3 and in stratospheric H2O were identified, but QBO effects on other stratospheric species are still unknown. The solar tide in the tropics produces a diurnal surface pressure variation of 2 to 3 mb; its effect on OH photochemistry in the stratosphere may be significant.

  14. Ground-based column abundance measurements of atmospheric hydroxyl

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Burnett, Clyde R.

    1988-01-01

    The preliminary results of ground-based OH column abundance measurements from Truk, Federated States of Micronesia, are contained. These are the first OH column measurements from the tropics, and constitute a signficcant contribution to the OH data base. Comparisons of tropical OH behavior with the extensive mid-latitude observations serve as a critical test of the current understanding of the HO (sub x) photochemistry and its relationship to the other major chemical families. The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in tropical stratospheric winds exerts a major influence on the Hadley cell vertical transport. Related QBOs in total O3 and in stratospheric H2O were identified, but QBO effects on other stratospheric species are still unknown. The solar tide in the tropics produces a diurnal surface pressure variation of 2 to 3 mb; its effect on OH photochemistry in the stratosphere may be significant.

  15. Use of miniroutes and Breeding Bird Survey data to estimate abundance

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Robbins, C.S.; Dowell, B.A.

    1986-01-01

    1. Information on relative abundance is easily obtained and adds greatly to the value of an atlas project. 2. The Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) provides annual counts (birds per 50 roadside stops) that can be used to: (1) map relative abundance by physiographic region within a state or province, (2) map relative abundance on a more local scale by using results from individual routes, or (3) compute estimates of total state populations of a species. Where BBS coverage is too scanty to permit mapping, extra temporary routes may be established to provide additional information for the atlas. Or, if continuing coverage is anticipated, additional permanent random routes can be assigned by the U. S. Fish and Wildlife Service. 3. Miniroutes of 15 or more stops can be established in individual atlas blocks to serve the dual purposes of providing efficient uniform coverage and providing information on relative abundance. Miniroutes can also be extracted from BBS routes to supplement special atlas coverage, or vice versa; but the data from the BBS will not be confined to individual atlas blocks. 4. Advantages of 15- or 20-stop Miniroutes over 25-stop Miniroutes are several: the ability to do two per morning and the lower variability among M1niroute results. Also, many 5-km atlas blocks do not have enough secondary roads to accommodate 25 stops at one-half mile intervals. Disadvantages of 15-stop Miniroutes starting at sunrise are the smaller numbers of birds recorded, missing of the very productive dawn chorus period (Robbins 1981), and missing crepuscular species (rails, woodcock, owls, and goatsuckers). 5. Advantages of recording counts of individuals rather than checking only species presence at Miniroute stops are that: (1) relative abundance can be mapped rather than frequency only (a measure of frequency is already available in the number of blocks recording each species); (2) population change can be measured over a period of years when the next atlas is made; and (3

  16. Exploiting the multiplexing capabilities of tandem mass tags for high-throughput estimation of cellular protein abundances by mass spectrometry.

    PubMed

    Ahrné, Erik; Martinez-Segura, Amalia; Syed, Afzal Pasha; Vina-Vilaseca, Arnau; Gruber, Andreas J; Marguerat, Samuel; Schmidt, Alexander

    2015-09-01

    The generation of dynamic models of biological processes critically depends on the determination of precise cellular concentrations of biomolecules. Measurements of system-wide absolute protein levels are particularly valuable information in systems biology. Recently, mass spectrometry based proteomics approaches have been developed to estimate protein concentrations on a proteome-wide scale. However, for very complex proteomes, fractionation steps are required, increasing samples number and instrument analysis time. As a result, the number of full proteomes that can be routinely analyzed is limited. Here we combined absolute quantification strategies with the multiplexing capabilities of isobaric tandem mass tags to determine cellular protein abundances in a high throughput and proteome-wide scale even for highly complex biological systems, such as a whole human cell line. We generated two independent data sets to demonstrate the power of the approach regarding sample throughput, dynamic range, quantitative precision and accuracy as well as proteome coverage in comparison to existing mass spectrometry based strategies.

  17. Relic DNA is abundant in soil and obscures estimates of soil microbial diversity.

    PubMed

    Carini, Paul; Marsden, Patrick J; Leff, Jonathan W; Morgan, Emily E; Strickland, Michael S; Fierer, Noah

    2016-12-19

    Extracellular DNA from dead microorganisms can persist in soil for weeks to years(1-3). Although it is implicitly assumed that the microbial DNA recovered from soil predominantly represents intact cells, it is unclear how extracellular DNA affects molecular analyses of microbial diversity. We examined a wide range of soils using viability PCR based on the photoreactive DNA-intercalating dye propidium monoazide(4). We found that, on average, 40% of both prokaryotic and fungal DNA was extracellular or from cells that were no longer intact. Extracellular DNA inflated the observed prokaryotic and fungal richness by up to 55% and caused significant misestimation of taxon relative abundances, including the relative abundances of taxa integral to key ecosystem processes. Extracellular DNA was not found in measurable amounts in all soils; it was more likely to be present in soils with low exchangeable base cation concentrations, and the effect of its removal on microbial community structure was more profound in high-pH soils. Together, these findings imply that this 'relic DNA' remaining in soil after cell death can obscure treatment effects, spatiotemporal patterns and relationships between microbial taxa and environmental conditions.

  18. Acoustic estimates of abundance and distribution of spawning lake trout on Sheboygan Reef in Lake Michigan

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Warner, D.M.; Claramunt, R.M.; Janssen, J.; Jude, D.J.; Wattrus, N.

    2009-01-01

    Efforts to restore self-sustaining lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) populations in the Laurentian Great Lakes have had widespread success in Lake Superior; but in other Great Lakes, populations of lake trout are maintained by stocking. Recruitment bottlenecks may be present at a number of stages of the reproduction process. To study eggs and fry, it is necessary to identify spawning locations, which is difficult in deep water. Acoustic sampling can be used to rapidly locate aggregations of fish (like spawning lake trout), describe their distribution, and estimate their abundance. To assess these capabilities for application to lake trout, we conducted an acoustic survey covering 22 km2 at Sheboygan Reef, a deep reef (<40 m summit) in southern Lake Michigan during fall 2005. Data collected with remotely operated vehicles (ROV) confirmed that fish were large lake trout, that lake trout were 1–2 m above bottom, and that spawning took place over specific habitat. Lake trout density exhibited a high degree of spatial structure (autocorrelation) up to a range of ~190 m, and highest lake trout and egg densities occurred over rough substrates (rubble and cobble) at the shallowest depths sampled (36–42 m). Mean lake trout density in the area surveyed (~2190 ha) was 5.8 fish/ha and the area surveyed contained an estimated 9500–16,000 large lake trout. Spatial aggregation in lake trout densities, similarity of depths and substrates at which high lake trout and egg densities occurred, and relatively low uncertainty in the lake trout density estimate indicate that acoustic sampling can be a useful complement to other sampling tools used in lake trout restoration research.

  19. Accounting for subgroup structure in line-transect abundance estimates of false killer whales (Pseudorca crassidens) in Hawaiian waters.

    PubMed

    Bradford, Amanda L; Forney, Karin A; Oleson, Erin M; Barlow, Jay

    2014-01-01

    For biological populations that form aggregations (or clusters) of individuals, cluster size is an important parameter in line-transect abundance estimation and should be accurately measured. Cluster size in cetaceans has traditionally been represented as the total number of individuals in a group, but group size may be underestimated if group members are spatially diffuse. Groups of false killer whales (Pseudorca crassidens) can comprise numerous subgroups that are dispersed over tens of kilometers, leading to a spatial mismatch between a detected group and the theoretical framework of line-transect analysis. Three stocks of false killer whales are found within the U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone of the Hawaiian Islands (Hawaiian EEZ): an insular main Hawaiian Islands stock, a pelagic stock, and a Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (NWHI) stock. A ship-based line-transect survey of the Hawaiian EEZ was conducted in the summer and fall of 2010, resulting in six systematic-effort visual sightings of pelagic (n = 5) and NWHI (n = 1) false killer whale groups. The maximum number and spatial extent of subgroups per sighting was 18 subgroups and 35 km, respectively. These sightings were combined with data from similar previous surveys and analyzed within the conventional line-transect estimation framework. The detection function, mean cluster size, and encounter rate were estimated separately to appropriately incorporate data collected using different methods. Unlike previous line-transect analyses of cetaceans, subgroups were treated as the analytical cluster instead of groups because subgroups better conform to the specifications of line-transect theory. Bootstrap values (n = 5,000) of the line-transect parameters were randomly combined to estimate the variance of stock-specific abundance estimates. Hawai'i pelagic and NWHI false killer whales were estimated to number 1,552 (CV = 0.66; 95% CI = 479-5,030) and 552 (CV = 1.09; 95% CI = 97

  20. New method for estimating bacterial cell abundances in natural samples by use of sublimation.

    PubMed

    Glavin, Daniel P; Cleaves, H James; Schubert, Michael; Aubrey, Andrew; Bada, Jeffrey L

    2004-10-01

    We have developed a new method based on the sublimation of adenine from Escherichia coli to estimate bacterial cell counts in natural samples. To demonstrate this technique, several types of natural samples, including beach sand, seawater, deep-sea sediment, and two soil samples from the Atacama Desert, were heated to a temperature of 500 degrees C for several seconds under reduced pressure. The sublimate was collected on a cold finger, and the amount of adenine released from the samples was then determined by high-performance liquid chromatography with UV absorbance detection. Based on the total amount of adenine recovered from DNA and RNA in these samples, we estimated bacterial cell counts ranging from approximately 10(5) to 10(9) E. coli cell equivalents per gram. For most of these samples, the sublimation-based cell counts were in agreement with total bacterial counts obtained by traditional DAPI (4,6-diamidino-2-phenylindole) staining.

  1. New method for estimating bacterial cell abundances in natural samples by use of sublimation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Glavin, Daniel P.; Cleaves, H. James; Schubert, Michael; Aubrey, Andrew; Bada, Jeffrey L.

    2004-01-01

    We have developed a new method based on the sublimation of adenine from Escherichia coli to estimate bacterial cell counts in natural samples. To demonstrate this technique, several types of natural samples, including beach sand, seawater, deep-sea sediment, and two soil samples from the Atacama Desert, were heated to a temperature of 500 degrees C for several seconds under reduced pressure. The sublimate was collected on a cold finger, and the amount of adenine released from the samples was then determined by high-performance liquid chromatography with UV absorbance detection. Based on the total amount of adenine recovered from DNA and RNA in these samples, we estimated bacterial cell counts ranging from approximately 10(5) to 10(9) E. coli cell equivalents per gram. For most of these samples, the sublimation-based cell counts were in agreement with total bacterial counts obtained by traditional DAPI (4,6-diamidino-2-phenylindole) staining.

  2. Challenges of ecological monitoring: estimating population abundance from sparse trap counts

    PubMed Central

    Petrovskaya, Natalia; Petrovskii, Sergei; Murchie, Archie K.

    2012-01-01

    Ecological monitoring aims to provide estimates of pest species abundance—this information being then used for making decisions about means of control. For invertebrate species, population size estimates are often based on trap counts which provide the value of the population density at the traps' location. However, the use of traps in large numbers is problematic as it is costly and may also be disruptive to agricultural procedures. Therefore, the challenge is to obtain a reliable population size estimate from sparse spatial data. The approach we develop in this paper is based on the ideas of numerical integration on a coarse grid. We investigate several methods of numerical integration in order to understand how badly the lack of spatial data can affect the accuracy of results. We first test our approach on simulation data mimicking spatial population distributions of different complexity. We show that, rather counterintuitively, a robust estimate of the population size can be obtained from just a few traps, even when the population distribution has a highly complicated spatial structure. We obtain an estimate of the minimum number of traps required to calculate the population size with good accuracy. We then apply our approach to field data to confirm that the number of trap/sampling locations can be much fewer than has been used in many monitoring programmes. We also show that the accuracy of our approach is greater that that of the statistical method commonly used in field studies. Finally, we discuss the implications of our findings for ecological monitoring practice and show that the use of trap numbers ‘smaller than minimum’ may still be possible but it would result in a paradigm shift: the population size estimates should be treated probabilistically and the arising uncertainty may introduce additional risk in decision-making. PMID:21831888

  3. RVC-CAL library for endmember and abundance estimation in hyperspectral image analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lazcano López, R.; Madroñal Quintín, D.; Juárez Martínez, E.; Sanz Álvaro, C.

    2015-10-01

    Hyperspectral imaging (HI) collects information from across the electromagnetic spectrum, covering a wide range of wavelengths. Although this technology was initially developed for remote sensing and earth observation, its multiple advantages - such as high spectral resolution - led to its application in other fields, as cancer detection. However, this new field has shown specific requirements; for instance, it needs to accomplish strong time specifications, since all the potential applications - like surgical guidance or in vivo tumor detection - imply real-time requisites. Achieving this time requirements is a great challenge, as hyperspectral images generate extremely high volumes of data to process. Thus, some new research lines are studying new processing techniques, and the most relevant ones are related to system parallelization. In that line, this paper describes the construction of a new hyperspectral processing library for RVC-CAL language, which is specifically designed for multimedia applications and allows multithreading compilation and system parallelization. This paper presents the development of the required library functions to implement two of the four stages of the hyperspectral imaging processing chain--endmember and abundances estimation. The results obtained show that the library achieves speedups of 30%, approximately, comparing to an existing software of hyperspectral images analysis; concretely, the endmember estimation step reaches an average speedup of 27.6%, which saves almost 8 seconds in the execution time. It also shows the existence of some bottlenecks, as the communication interfaces among the different actors due to the volume of data to transfer. Finally, it is shown that the library considerably simplifies the implementation process. Thus, experimental results show the potential of a RVC-CAL library for analyzing hyperspectral images in real-time, as it provides enough resources to study the system performance.

  4. Bayesian network for estimating the interaction between ecological health and waterfowl abundance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Teng, Te Hui; Fang, Wei Ta; Yu, Hwa Lung

    2013-04-01

    The serious decrease of biodiversity which is mainly induced by Habitat disappear is important issue of species field and in the world. The study area chooses Tauyuan County at subtropical area because of the most artificial farm ponds in Taiwan where the total area includes 27 km2. The effectiveness of these ponds is storage and irrigation and also supplies all kinds of environment like refuges for migratory birds, especially for water birds. Due to human development, farm ponds in this city not only suffer from largely disappear recent year, but also lead to the habitat and bird species reduce. Biological research usually contains incomplete and uncertain information, therefore, this study adopts Bayesian Network model to analyze interaction between land use and water birds. The habitat parameters include elevation, urbanization, building area, farm area, reconsolidation, forest area, irrigation area, farm pond area and lawn area; the biological factors have reproductive capacity, habitat condition, hydrological condition and food source. Using this structure can estimate the interaction of spatiotemporal abundance distribution between habitat parameter and biological parameter. In addition, the former results can define all the reasonable relationship of all hidden states and provide decision-makers with reasonable evaluation.

  5. Mark-recapture and mark-resight methods for estimating abundance with remote cameras: a carnivore case study

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Alanso, Robert S.; McClintock, Brett T.; Lyren, Lisa M.; Boydston, Erin E.; Crooks, Kevin R.

    2015-01-01

    Abundance estimation of carnivore populations is difficult and has prompted the use of non-invasive detection methods, such as remotely-triggered cameras, to collect data. To analyze photo data, studies focusing on carnivores with unique pelage patterns have utilized a mark-recapture framework and studies of carnivores without unique pelage patterns have used a mark-resight framework. We compared mark-resight and mark-recapture estimation methods to estimate bobcat (Lynx rufus) population sizes, which motivated the development of a new "hybrid" mark-resight model as an alternative to traditional methods. We deployed a sampling grid of 30 cameras throughout the urban southern California study area. Additionally, we physically captured and marked a subset of the bobcat population with GPS telemetry collars. Since we could identify individual bobcats with photos of unique pelage patterns and a subset of the population was physically marked, we were able to use traditional mark-recapture and mark-resight methods, as well as the new “hybrid” mark-resight model we developed to estimate bobcat abundance. We recorded 109 bobcat photos during 4,669 camera nights and physically marked 27 bobcats with GPS telemetry collars. Abundance estimates produced by the traditional mark-recapture, traditional mark-resight, and “hybrid” mark-resight methods were similar, however precision differed depending on the models used. Traditional mark-recapture and mark-resight estimates were relatively imprecise with percent confidence interval lengths exceeding 100% of point estimates. Hybrid mark-resight models produced better precision with percent confidence intervals not exceeding 57%. The increased precision of the hybrid mark-resight method stems from utilizing the complete encounter histories of physically marked individuals (including those never detected by a camera trap) and the encounter histories of naturally marked individuals detected at camera traps. This new estimator

  6. A New Method for Estimating Bacterial Abundances in Natural Samples using Sublimation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Glavin, Daniel P.; Cleaves, H. James; Schubert, Michael; Aubrey, Andrew; Bada, Jeffrey L.

    2004-01-01

    We have developed a new method based on the sublimation of adenine from Escherichia coli to estimate bacterial cell counts in natural samples. To demonstrate this technique, several types of natural samples including beach sand, seawater, deep-sea sediment, and two soil samples from the Atacama Desert were heated to a temperature of 500 C for several seconds under reduced pressure. The sublimate was collected on a cold finger and the amount of adenine released from the samples then determined by high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) with UV absorbance detection. Based on the total amount of adenine recovered from DNA and RNA in these samples, we estimated bacterial cell counts ranging from approx. l0(exp 5) to l0(exp 9) E. coli cell equivalents per gram. For most of these samples, the sublimation based cell counts were in agreement with total bacterial counts obtained by traditional DAPI staining. The simplicity and robustness of the sublimation technique compared to the DAPI staining method makes this approach particularly attractive for use by spacecraft instrumentation. NASA is currently planning to send a lander to Mars in 2009 in order to assess whether or not organic compounds, especially those that might be associated with life, are present in Martian surface samples. Based on our analyses of the Atacama Desert soil samples, several million bacterial cells per gam of Martian soil should be detectable using this sublimation technique.

  7. Estimated abundance of wild burros surveyed on Bureau of Land Management Lands in 2014

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Griffin, Paul C.

    2015-01-01

    The Bureau of Land Management (BLM) requires accurate estimates of the numbers of wild horses (Equus ferus caballus) and burros (Equus asinus) living on the lands it manages. For over ten years, BLM in Arizona has used the simultaneous double-observer method of recording wild burros during aerial surveys and has reported population estimates for those surveys that come from two formulations of a Lincoln-Petersen type of analysis (Graham and Bell, 1989). In this report, I provide those same two types of burro population analysis for 2014 aerial survey data from six herd management areas (HMAs) in Arizona, California, Nevada, and Utah. I also provide burro population estimates based on a different form of simultaneous double-observer analysis, now in widespread use for wild horse surveys that takes into account the potential effects on detection probability of sighting covariates including group size, distance, vegetative cover, and other factors (Huggins, 1989, 1991). The true number of burros present in the six areas surveyed was not known, so population estimates made with these three types of analyses cannot be directly tested for accuracy in this report. I discuss theoretical reasons why the Huggins (1989, 1991) type of analysis should provide less biased estimates of population size than the Lincoln-Petersen analyses and why estimates from all forms of double-observer analyses are likely to be lower than the true number of animals present in the surveyed areas. I note reasons why I suggest using burro observations made at all available distances in analyses, not only those within 200 meters of the flight path. For all analytical methods, small sample sizes of observed groups can be problematic, but that sample size can be increased over time for Huggins (1989, 1991) analyses by pooling observations. I note ways by which burro population estimates could be tested for accuracy when there are radio-collared animals in the population or when there are simultaneous

  8. A likelihood framework for joint estimation of salmon abundance and migratory timing using telemetric mark-recapture

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bromaghin, Jeffrey; Gates, Kenneth S.; Palmer, Douglas E.

    2010-01-01

    Many fisheries for Pacific salmon Oncorhynchus spp. are actively managed to meet escapement goal objectives. In fisheries where the demand for surplus production is high, an extensive assessment program is needed to achieve the opposing objectives of allowing adequate escapement and fully exploiting the available surplus. Knowledge of abundance is a critical element of such assessment programs. Abundance estimation using mark—recapture experiments in combination with telemetry has become common in recent years, particularly within Alaskan river systems. Fish are typically captured and marked in the lower river while migrating in aggregations of individuals from multiple populations. Recapture data are obtained using telemetry receivers that are co-located with abundance assessment projects near spawning areas, which provide large sample sizes and information on population-specific mark rates. When recapture data are obtained from multiple populations, unequal mark rates may reflect a violation of the assumption of homogeneous capture probabilities. A common analytical strategy is to test the hypothesis that mark rates are homogeneous and combine all recapture data if the test is not significant. However, mark rates are often low, and a test of homogeneity may lack sufficient power to detect meaningful differences among populations. In addition, differences among mark rates may provide information that could be exploited during parameter estimation. We present a temporally stratified mark—recapture model that permits capture probabilities and migratory timing through the capture area to vary among strata. Abundance information obtained from a subset of populations after the populations have segregated for spawning is jointly modeled with telemetry distribution data by use of a likelihood function. Maximization of the likelihood produces estimates of the abundance and timing of individual populations migrating through the capture area, thus yielding

  9. Variation in pre-treatment count lead time and its effect on baseline estimates of cage-level sea lice abundance.

    PubMed

    Gautam, R; Boerlage, A S; Vanderstichel, R; Revie, C W; Hammell, K L

    2016-11-01

    Treatment efficacy studies typically use pre-treatment sea lice abundance as the baseline. However, the pre-treatment counting window often varies from the day of treatment to several days before treatment. We assessed the effect of lead time on baseline estimates, using historical data (2010-14) from a sea lice data management programme (Fish-iTrends). Data were aggregated at the cage level for three life stages: (i) chalimus, (ii) pre-adult and adult male and (iii) adult female. Sea lice counts were log-transformed, and mean counts by lead time relative to treatment day were computed and compared separately for each life stage, using linear mixed models. There were 1,658 observations (treatment events) from 56 sites in 5 Bay Management Areas. Our study showed that lead time had a significant effect on the estimated sea lice abundance, which was moderated by season. During the late summer and autumn periods, counting on the day of treatment gave significantly higher values than other days and would be a more appropriate baseline estimate, while during spring and early summer abundance estimates were comparable among counts within 5 days of treatment. A season-based lead time window may be most appropriate when estimating baseline sea lice levels.

  10. Oxygen abundance distributions in six late-type galaxies based on SALT spectra of H II regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zinchenko, I. A.; Kniazev, A. Y.; Grebel, E. K.; Pilyugin, L. S.

    2015-10-01

    Spectra of 34 H ii regions in the late-type galaxies NGC 1087, NGC 2967, NGC 3023, NGC 4030, NGC 4123, and NGC 4517A were observed with the South African Large Telescope (SALT). In all 34 H ii regions, oxygen abundances were determined through the "counterpart" method (C method). Additionally, in two H ii regions in which we detected auroral lines, we measured oxygen abundances with the classic Te method. We also estimated the abundances in our H ii regions using the O3N2 and N2 calibrations and compared those with the C-based abundances. With these data, we examined the radial abundance distributions in the disks of our target galaxies. We derived surface-brightness profiles and other characteristics of the disks (the surface brightness at the disk center and the disk scale length) in three photometric bands for each galaxy using publicly available photometric imaging data. The radial distributions of the oxygen abundances predicted by the relation between abundance and disk surface brightness in the W1 band obtained for spiral galaxies in our previous study are close to the radial distributions of the oxygen abundances determined from the analysis of the emission line spectra for four galaxies where this relation is applicable. Hence, when the surface-brightness profile of a late-type galaxy is known, this parametric relation can be used to estimate the likely present-day oxygen abundance in the disk of the galaxy. Based on observations made with the Southern African Large Telescope, programs 2012-1-RSA_OTH-001, 2012-2-RSA_OTH-003 and 2013-1-RSA_OTH-005.

  11. Asteroseismic estimate of helium abundance of a solar analog binary system

    SciTech Connect

    Verma, Kuldeep; Antia, H. M.; Faria, João P.; Monteiro, Mário J. P. F. G.; Basu, Sarbani; Mazumdar, Anwesh; Appourchaux, Thierry; Chaplin, William J.; García, Rafael A.

    2014-08-01

    16 Cyg A and B are among the brightest stars observed by Kepler. What makes these stars more interesting is that they are solar analogs. 16 Cyg A and B exhibit solar-like oscillations. In this work we use oscillation frequencies obtained using 2.5 yr of Kepler data to determine the current helium abundance of these stars. For this we use the fact that the helium ionization zone leaves a signature on the oscillation frequencies and that this signature can be calibrated to determine the helium abundance of that layer. By calibrating the signature of the helium ionization zone against models of known helium abundance, the helium abundance in the envelope of 16 Cyg A is found to lie in the range of 0.231 to 0.251 and that of 16 Cyg B lies in the range of 0.218 to 0.266.

  12. Estimating modal abundances from the spectra of natural and laboratory pyroxene mixtures using the modified Gaussian model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sunshine, J. M.; Pieters, C. M.

    1993-05-01

    The modified Gaussian model (MGM) is used to explore spectra of samples containing multiple pyroxene components as a function of modal abundance. The MGM allows spectra to be analyzed directly, without the use of actual or assumed end-member spectra and therefore holds great promise for remote applications. A series of mass fraction mixtures created from several different particle size fractions are analyzed with the MGM to quantify the properties of pyroxene mixtures as a function of both modal abundance and grain size. Band centers, band widths, and relative band strengths of absorptions from individual pyroxenes in mixture spectra are found to be largely independent of particle size. Spectral properties of both zoned and exsolved pyroxene components are resolved in exsolved samples using the MGM, and modal abundances are accurately estimated to within 5-10 percent without predetermined knowledge of the end-member spectra.

  13. Estimating modal abundances from the spectra of natural and laboratory pyroxene mixtures using the modified Gaussian model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sunshine, Jessica M.; Pieters, Carle M.

    1993-01-01

    The modified Gaussian model (MGM) is used to explore spectra of samples containing multiple pyroxene components as a function of modal abundance. The MGM allows spectra to be analyzed directly, without the use of actual or assumed end-member spectra and therefore holds great promise for remote applications. A series of mass fraction mixtures created from several different particle size fractions are analyzed with the MGM to quantify the properties of pyroxene mixtures as a function of both modal abundance and grain size. Band centers, band widths, and relative band strengths of absorptions from individual pyroxenes in mixture spectra are found to be largely independent of particle size. Spectral properties of both zoned and exsolved pyroxene components are resolved in exsolved samples using the MGM, and modal abundances are accurately estimated to within 5-10 percent without predetermined knowledge of the end-member spectra.

  14. Sparse linear modeling of next-generation mRNA sequencing (RNA-Seq) data for isoform discovery and abundance estimation.

    PubMed

    Li, Jingyi Jessica; Jiang, Ci-Ren; Brown, James B; Huang, Haiyan; Bickel, Peter J

    2011-12-13

    Since the inception of next-generation mRNA sequencing (RNA-Seq) technology, various attempts have been made to utilize RNA-Seq data in assembling full-length mRNA isoforms de novo and estimating abundance of isoforms. However, for genes with more than a few exons, the problem tends to be challenging and often involves identifiability issues in statistical modeling. We have developed a statistical method called "sparse linear modeling of RNA-Seq data for isoform discovery and abundance estimation" (SLIDE) that takes exon boundaries and RNA-Seq data as input to discern the set of mRNA isoforms that are most likely to present in an RNA-Seq sample. SLIDE is based on a linear model with a design matrix that models the sampling probability of RNA-Seq reads from different mRNA isoforms. To tackle the model unidentifiability issue, SLIDE uses a modified Lasso procedure for parameter estimation. Compared with deterministic isoform assembly algorithms (e.g., Cufflinks), SLIDE considers the stochastic aspects of RNA-Seq reads in exons from different isoforms and thus has increased power in detecting more novel isoforms. Another advantage of SLIDE is its flexibility of incorporating other transcriptomic data such as RACE, CAGE, and EST into its model to further increase isoform discovery accuracy. SLIDE can also work downstream of other RNA-Seq assembly algorithms to integrate newly discovered genes and exons. Besides isoform discovery, SLIDE sequentially uses the same linear model to estimate the abundance of discovered isoforms. Simulation and real data studies show that SLIDE performs as well as or better than major competitors in both isoform discovery and abundance estimation. The SLIDE software package is available at https://sites.google.com/site/jingyijli/SLIDE.zip.

  15. Hierarchical distance-sampling models to estimate population size and habitat-specific abundance of an island endemic.

    PubMed

    Sillett, T Scott; Chandler, Richard B; Royle, J Andrew; Kery, Marc; Morrison, Scott A

    2012-10-01

    Population size and habitat-specific abundance estimates are essential for conservation management. A major impediment to obtaining such estimates is that few statistical models are able to simultaneously account for both spatial variation in abundance and heterogeneity in detection probability, and still be amenable to large-scale applications. The hierarchical distance-sampling model of J. A. Royle, D. K. Dawson, and S. Bates provides a practical solution. Here, we extend this model to estimate habitat-specific abundance and rangewide population size of a bird species of management concern, the Island Scrub-Jay (Aphelocoma insularis), which occurs solely on Santa Cruz Island, California, USA. We surveyed 307 randomly selected, 300 m diameter, point locations throughout the 250-km2 island during October 2008 and April 2009. Population size was estimated to be 2267 (95% CI 1613-3007) and 1705 (1212-2369) during the fall and spring respectively, considerably lower than a previously published but statistically problematic estimate of 12 500. This large discrepancy emphasizes the importance of proper survey design and analysis for obtaining reliable information for management decisions. Jays were most abundant in low-elevation chaparral habitat; the detection function depended primarily on the percent cover of chaparral and forest within count circles. Vegetation change on the island has been dramatic in recent decades, due to release from herbivory following the eradication of feral sheep (Ovis aries) from the majority of the island in the mid-1980s. We applied best-fit fall and spring models of habitat-specific jay abundance to a vegetation map from 1985, and estimated the population size of A. insularis was 1400-1500 at that time. The 20-30% increase in the jay population suggests that the species has benefited from the recovery of native vegetation since sheep removal. Nevertheless, this jay's tiny range and small population size make it vulnerable to natural

  16. Hierarchical distance-sampling models to estimate population size and habitat-specific abundance of an island endemic

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sillett, Scott T.; Chandler, Richard B.; Royle, J. Andrew; Kéry, Marc; Morrison, Scott A.

    2012-01-01

    Population size and habitat-specific abundance estimates are essential for conservation management. A major impediment to obtaining such estimates is that few statistical models are able to simultaneously account for both spatial variation in abundance and heterogeneity in detection probability, and still be amenable to large-scale applications. The hierarchical distance-sampling model of J. A. Royle, D. K. Dawson, and S. Bates provides a practical solution. Here, we extend this model to estimate habitat-specific abundance and rangewide population size of a bird species of management concern, the Island Scrub-Jay (Aphelocoma insularis), which occurs solely on Santa Cruz Island, California, USA. We surveyed 307 randomly selected, 300 m diameter, point locations throughout the 250-km2 island during October 2008 and April 2009. Population size was estimated to be 2267 (95% CI 1613-3007) and 1705 (1212-2369) during the fall and spring respectively, considerably lower than a previously published but statistically problematic estimate of 12 500. This large discrepancy emphasizes the importance of proper survey design and analysis for obtaining reliable information for management decisions. Jays were most abundant in low-elevation chaparral habitat; the detection function depended primarily on the percent cover of chaparral and forest within count circles. Vegetation change on the island has been dramatic in recent decades, due to release from herbivory following the eradication of feral sheep (Ovis aries) from the majority of the island in the mid-1980s. We applied best-fit fall and spring models of habitat-specific jay abundance to a vegetation map from 1985, and estimated the population size of A. insularis was 1400-1500 at that time. The 20-30% increase in the jay population suggests that the species has benefited from the recovery of native vegetation since sheep removal. Nevertheless, this jay's tiny range and small population size make it vulnerable to natural

  17. Mark-Recapture and Mark-Resight Methods for Estimating Abundance with Remote Cameras: A Carnivore Case Study

    PubMed Central

    Alonso, Robert S.; McClintock, Brett T.; Lyren, Lisa M.; Boydston, Erin E.; Crooks, Kevin R.

    2015-01-01

    Abundance estimation of carnivore populations is difficult and has prompted the use of non-invasive detection methods, such as remotely-triggered cameras, to collect data. To analyze photo data, studies focusing on carnivores with unique pelage patterns have utilized a mark-recapture framework and studies of carnivores without unique pelage patterns have used a mark-resight framework. We compared mark-resight and mark-recapture estimation methods to estimate bobcat (Lynx rufus) population sizes, which motivated the development of a new "hybrid" mark-resight model as an alternative to traditional methods. We deployed a sampling grid of 30 cameras throughout the urban southern California study area. Additionally, we physically captured and marked a subset of the bobcat population with GPS telemetry collars. Since we could identify individual bobcats with photos of unique pelage patterns and a subset of the population was physically marked, we were able to use traditional mark-recapture and mark-resight methods, as well as the new “hybrid” mark-resight model we developed to estimate bobcat abundance. We recorded 109 bobcat photos during 4,669 camera nights and physically marked 27 bobcats with GPS telemetry collars. Abundance estimates produced by the traditional mark-recapture, traditional mark-resight, and “hybrid” mark-resight methods were similar, however precision differed depending on the models used. Traditional mark-recapture and mark-resight estimates were relatively imprecise with percent confidence interval lengths exceeding 100% of point estimates. Hybrid mark-resight models produced better precision with percent confidence intervals not exceeding 57%. The increased precision of the hybrid mark-resight method stems from utilizing the complete encounter histories of physically marked individuals (including those never detected by a camera trap) and the encounter histories of naturally marked individuals detected at camera traps. This new estimator

  18. Accurate Estimation of Fungal Diversity and Abundance through Improved Lineage-Specific Primers Optimized for Illumina Amplicon Sequencing

    PubMed Central

    Walters, William A.; Lennon, Niall J.; Bochicchio, James; Krohn, Andrew; Pennanen, Taina

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT While high-throughput sequencing methods are revolutionizing fungal ecology, recovering accurate estimates of species richness and abundance has proven elusive. We sought to design internal transcribed spacer (ITS) primers and an Illumina protocol that would maximize coverage of the kingdom Fungi while minimizing nontarget eukaryotes. We inspected alignments of the 5.8S and large subunit (LSU) ribosomal genes and evaluated potential primers using PrimerProspector. We tested the resulting primers using tiered-abundance mock communities and five previously characterized soil samples. We recovered operational taxonomic units (OTUs) belonging to all 8 members in both mock communities, despite DNA abundances spanning 3 orders of magnitude. The expected and observed read counts were strongly correlated (r = 0.94 to 0.97). However, several taxa were consistently over- or underrepresented, likely due to variation in rRNA gene copy numbers. The Illumina data resulted in clustering of soil samples identical to that obtained with Sanger sequence clone library data using different primers. Furthermore, the two methods produced distance matrices with a Mantel correlation of 0.92. Nonfungal sequences comprised less than 0.5% of the soil data set, with most attributable to vascular plants. Our results suggest that high-throughput methods can produce fairly accurate estimates of fungal abundances in complex communities. Further improvements might be achieved through corrections for rRNA copy number and utilization of standardized mock communities. IMPORTANCE Fungi play numerous important roles in the environment. Improvements in sequencing methods are providing revolutionary insights into fungal biodiversity, yet accurate estimates of the number of fungal species (i.e., richness) and their relative abundances in an environmental sample (e.g., soil, roots, water, etc.) remain difficult to obtain. We present improved methods for high-throughput Illumina sequencing of the

  19. Estimating grizzly and black bear population abundance and trend in Banff National Park using noninvasive genetic sampling.

    PubMed

    Sawaya, Michael A; Stetz, Jeffrey B; Clevenger, Anthony P; Gibeau, Michael L; Kalinowski, Steven T

    2012-01-01

    We evaluated the potential of two noninvasive genetic sampling methods, hair traps and bear rub surveys, to estimate population abundance and trend of grizzly (Ursus arctos) and black bear (U. americanus) populations in Banff National Park, Alberta, Canada. Using Huggins closed population mark-recapture models, we obtained the first precise abundance estimates for grizzly bears (N= 73.5, 95% CI = 64-94 in 2006; N= 50.4, 95% CI = 49-59 in 2008) and black bears (N= 62.6, 95% CI = 51-89 in 2006; N= 81.8, 95% CI = 72-102 in 2008) in the Bow Valley. Hair traps had high detection rates for female grizzlies, and male and female black bears, but extremely low detection rates for male grizzlies. Conversely, bear rubs had high detection rates for male and female grizzlies, but low rates for black bears. We estimated realized population growth rates, lambda, for grizzly bear males (λ= 0.93, 95% CI = 0.74-1.17) and females (λ= 0.90, 95% CI = 0.67-1.20) using Pradel open population models with three years of bear rub data. Lambda estimates are supported by abundance estimates from combined hair trap/bear rub closed population models and are consistent with a system that is likely driven by high levels of human-caused mortality. Our results suggest that bear rub surveys would provide an efficient and powerful means to inventory and monitor grizzly bear populations in the Central Canadian Rocky Mountains.

  20. Use of portable antennas to estimate abundance of PIT-tagged fish in small streams: Factors affecting detection probability

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    O'Donnell, Matthew J.; Horton, Gregg E.; Letcher, Benjamin H.

    2010-01-01

    Portable passive integrated transponder (PIT) tag antenna systems can be valuable in providing reliable estimates of the abundance of tagged Atlantic salmon Salmo salar in small streams under a wide range of conditions. We developed and employed PIT tag antenna wand techniques in two controlled experiments and an additional case study to examine the factors that influenced our ability to estimate population size. We used Pollock's robust-design capture–mark–recapture model to obtain estimates of the probability of first detection (p), the probability of redetection (c), and abundance (N) in the two controlled experiments. First, we conducted an experiment in which tags were hidden in fixed locations. Although p and c varied among the three observers and among the three passes that each observer conducted, the estimates of N were identical to the true values and did not vary among observers. In the second experiment using free-swimming tagged fish, p and c varied among passes and time of day. Additionally, estimates of N varied between day and night and among age-classes but were within 10% of the true population size. In the case study, we used the Cormack–Jolly–Seber model to examine the variation in p, and we compared counts of tagged fish found with the antenna wand with counts collected via electrofishing. In that study, we found that although p varied for age-classes, sample dates, and time of day, antenna and electrofishing estimates of N were similar, indicating that population size can be reliably estimated via PIT tag antenna wands. However, factors such as the observer, time of day, age of fish, and stream discharge can influence the initial and subsequent detection probabilities.

  1. Carbon-enhanced Metal-poor Stars in SDSS/SEGUE. I. Carbon Abundance Estimation and Frequency of CEMP Stars

    SciTech Connect

    Lee, Young Sun; Beers, Timothy C.; Masseron, Thomas; Plez, Bertrand; Rockosi, Constance M.; Sobeck, Jennifer; Yanny, Brian; Lucatello, Sara; Sivarani, Thirupathi; Placco, Vinicius M.; Carollo, Daniela

    2013-10-17

    We describe a method for the determination of stellar [C/Fe] abundance ratios using low-resolution (R = 2000) stellar spectra from the SDSS and SEGUE. By means of a star-by-star comparison with a set of SDSS/SEGUE spectra with available estimates of [C/Fe] based on published high-resolution analyses, we demonstrate that we can measure [C/Fe] from SDSS/SEGUE spectra with S/N > 15 to a precision better than 0.35 dex. Using the measured carbon-to-iron abundance ratios obtained by this technique, we derive the frequency of carbon-enhanced stars ([C/Fe] > +0.7) as a function of [Fe/H], for both the SDSS/SEGUE stars and other samples from the literature. We find that the differential frequency slowly rises from almost zero to about 14% at [Fe/H] ~ -2.4, followed by a sudden increase, by about a factor of three, to 39% from [Fe/H] ~ -2.4 to [Fe/H] ~ -3.7. We also examine how the cumulative frequency of CEMP stars varies across different luminosity classes. The giant sample exhibits a cumulative CEMP frequency of 32% for [Fe/H] < -2.5, 31% for [Fe/H] < -3.0, and 33% for [Fe/H] < -3.5. For the main-sequence turnoff stars, we obtain a lower cumulative CEMP frequency, around 10% for [Fe/H] < -2.5. The dwarf population displays a large change in the cumulative frequency for CEMP stars below [Fe/H] = -2.5, jumping from 15% for [Fe/H] < -2.5 to about 75% for [Fe/H] < -3.0. When we impose a restriction with respect to distance from the Galactic mid-plane (|Z| < 5 kpc), the frequency of the CEMP giants does not increase at low metallicity ([Fe/H] < -2.5), but rather, decreases, due to the dilution of C-rich material in stars that have undergone mixing with CNO-processed material from their interiors. The frequency of CEMP stars near the main-sequence turnoff, which are not expected to have experienced mixing, increases for [Fe/H] < -3.0. [abridged

  2. Automated and Accurate Estimation of Gene Family Abundance from Shotgun Metagenomes.

    PubMed

    Nayfach, Stephen; Bradley, Patrick H; Wyman, Stacia K; Laurent, Timothy J; Williams, Alex; Eisen, Jonathan A; Pollard, Katherine S; Sharpton, Thomas J

    2015-11-01

    Shotgun metagenomic DNA sequencing is a widely applicable tool for characterizing the functions that are encoded by microbial communities. Several bioinformatic tools can be used to functionally annotate metagenomes, allowing researchers to draw inferences about the functional potential of the community and to identify putative functional biomarkers. However, little is known about how decisions made during annotation affect the reliability of the results. Here, we use statistical simulations to rigorously assess how to optimize annotation accuracy and speed, given parameters of the input data like read length and library size. We identify best practices in metagenome annotation and use them to guide the development of the Shotgun Metagenome Annotation Pipeline (ShotMAP). ShotMAP is an analytically flexible, end-to-end annotation pipeline that can be implemented either on a local computer or a cloud compute cluster. We use ShotMAP to assess how different annotation databases impact the interpretation of how marine metagenome and metatranscriptome functional capacity changes across seasons. We also apply ShotMAP to data obtained from a clinical microbiome investigation of inflammatory bowel disease. This analysis finds that gut microbiota collected from Crohn's disease patients are functionally distinct from gut microbiota collected from either ulcerative colitis patients or healthy controls, with differential abundance of metabolic pathways related to host-microbiome interactions that may serve as putative biomarkers of disease.

  3. Inconsistencies in Estimates of Near-Surface Water Abundance are Resolved by the Volcanic Origin of Martian Outflow Channels

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leverington, D. W.

    2010-12-01

    A long-standing problem in the study of Mars has been the incompatibility between 1) geochemically-based expectations for low near-surface water abundance; and 2) the large water volumes required of aqueous interpretations of the outflow channels. On the basis of the compositions of SNC meteorites and the current Martian atmosphere, the early water content of Mars has been estimated by several groups to be equivalent to a global layer of ~6 to 200 m thickness, only a proportion of which would have been outgassed to the near-surface environment. In contrast, previous estimates of the minimum near-surface water volume required if the Martian outflow channels formed through aqueous mechanisms are equivalent to a global water layer of 300-500 m thickness, assuming unrealistic sediment loads of 40% and an absence of infiltration or evaporation during flow, and ignoring volumes such as those required of hypothesized cryospheric seals. Under more realistic outflow scenarios, required volumes are likely to be equivalent to an Earth-like global layer of at least several kilometers thickness, even assuming the past operation of a vigorous hydrological cycle. Some workers have suggested that disagreement between geochemical and geomorphological estimates of near-surface water volumes on Mars might be resolved if the amount of water outgassed by the planet was greater than expected, or if especially large volumes of water were contributed to the surface by impacts of volatile-rich bodies late in the heavy bombardment of Mars. However, resolution is instead likely to follow from changes in perspectives regarding outflow channel origins. Though most workers currently accept aqueous interpretations, recent work has indicated that the outflow channels of Mars are very likely to be the products of volcanic processes involving incision by low-viscosity mafic lavas. Volcanic interpretations are consistent with numerous considerations, including the absence of channel deposits of

  4. Field trials of line transect methods applied to estimation of desert tortoise abundance

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Anderson, David R.; Burnham, Kenneth P.; Lubow, Bruce C.; Thomas, L. E. N.; Corn, Paul Stephen; Medica, Philip A.; Marlow, R.W.

    2001-01-01

    We examine the degree to which field observers can meet the assumptions underlying line transect sampling to monitor populations of desert tortoises (Gopherus agassizii). We present the results of 2 field trials using artificial tortoise models in 3 size classes. The trials were conducted on 2 occasions on an area south of Las Vegas, Nevada, where the density of the test population was known. In the first trials, conducted largely by experienced biologists who had been involved in tortoise surveys for many years, the density of adult tortoise models was well estimated (-3.9% bias), while the bias was higher (-20%) for subadult tortoise models. The bias for combined data was -12.0%. The bias was largely attributed to the failure to detect all tortoise models on or near the transect centerline. The second trials were conducted with a group of largely inexperienced student volunteers and used somewhat different searching methods, and the results were similar to the first trials. Estimated combined density of subadult and adult tortoise models had a negative bias (-7.3%), again attributable to failure to detect some models on or near the centerline. Experience in desert tortoise biology, either comparing the first and second trials or in the second trial with 2 experienced biologists versus 16 novices, did not have an apparent effect on the quality of the data or the accuracy of the estimates. Observer training, specific to line transect sampling, and field testing are important components of a reliable survey. Line transect sampling represents a viable method for large-scale monitoring of populations of desert tortoise; however, field protocol must be improved to assure the key assumptions are met.

  5. Estimating Dungeness crab (Cancer magister) abundance: Crab pots and dive transects compared

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Taggart, S. James; O'Clair, Charles E.; Shirley, Thomas C.; Mondragon, Jennifer

    2004-01-01

    Dungeness crabs (Cancer magister) were sampled with commercial pots and counted by scuba divers on benthic transects at eight sites near Glacier Bay, Alaska. Catch per unit of effort (CPUE) from pots was compared to the density estimates from dives to evaluate the bias and power of the two techniques. Yearly sampling was conducted in two seasons: April and September, from 1992 to 2000. Male CPUE estimates from pots were significantly lower in April than in the following September; a step-wise regression demonstrated that season accounted for more of the variation in male CPUE than did temperature. In both April and September, pot sampling was significantly biased against females. When females were categorized as ovigerous and nonovigerous, it was clear that ovigerous females accounted for the majority of the bias because pots were not biased against nonovigerous females. We compared the power of pots and dive transects in detecting trends in populations and found that pots had much higher power than dive transects. Despite their low power, the dive transects were very useful for detecting bias in our pot sampling and in identifying the optimal times of year to sample so that pot bias could be avoided.

  6. Double-observer approach to estimating egg mass abundance of vernal pool breeding amphibians

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Grant, E.H.C.; Jung, R.E.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.

    2005-01-01

    Interest in seasonally flooded pools, and the status of associated amphibian populations, has initiated programs in the northeastern United States to document and monitor these habitats. Counting egg masses is an effective way to determine the population size of pool-breeding amphibians, such as wood frogs (Rana sylvatica) and spotted salamanders (Ambystoma maculatum). However, bias is associated with counts if egg masses are missed. Counts unadjusted for the proportion missed (i.e., without adjustment for detection probability) could lead to false assessments of population trends. We used a dependent double-observer method in 2002-2003 to estimate numbers of wood frog and spotted salamander egg masses at seasonal forest pools in 13 National Wildlife Refuges, 1 National Park, 1 National Seashore, and 1 State Park in the northeastern United States. We calculated detection probabilities for egg masses and examined whether detection probabilities varied by species, observers, pools, and in relation to pool characteristics (pool area, pool maximum depth, within-pool vegetation). For the 2 years, model selection indicated that no consistent set of variables explained the variation in data sets from individual Refuges and Parks. Because our results indicated that egg mass detection probabilities vary spatially and temporally, we conclude that it is essential to use estimation procedures, such as double-observer methods with egg mass surveys, to determine population sizes and trends of these species.

  7. Estimating mineral abundances of clay and gypsum mixtures using radiative transfer models applied to visible-near infrared reflectance spectra

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Robertson, K. M.; Milliken, R. E.; Li, S.

    2016-10-01

    Quantitative mineral abundances of lab derived clay-gypsum mixtures were estimated using a revised Hapke VIS-NIR and Shkuratov radiative transfer model. Montmorillonite-gypsum mixtures were used to test the effectiveness of the model in distinguishing between subtle differences in minor absorption features that are diagnostic of mineralogy in the presence of strong H2O absorptions that are not always diagnostic of distinct phases or mineral abundance. The optical constants (k-values) for both endmembers were determined from bi-directional reflectance spectra measured in RELAB as well as on an ASD FieldSpec3 in a controlled laboratory setting. Multiple size fractions were measured in order to derive a single k-value from optimization of the optical path length in the radiative transfer models. It is shown that with careful experimental conditions, optical constants can be accurately determined from powdered samples using a field spectrometer, consistent with previous studies. Variability in the montmorillonite hydration level increased the uncertainties in the derived k-values, but estimated modal abundances for the mixtures were still within 5% of the measured values. Results suggest that the Hapke model works well in distinguishing between hydrated phases that have overlapping H2O absorptions and it is able to detect gypsum and montmorillonite in these simple mixtures where they are present at levels of ∼10%. Care must be taken however to derive k-values from a sample with appropriate H2O content relative to the modeled spectra. These initial results are promising for the potential quantitative analysis of orbital remote sensing data of hydrated minerals, including more complex clay and sulfate assemblages such as mudstones examined by the Curiosity rover in Gale crater.

  8. An evaluation of the efficiency of minnow traps for estimating the abundance of minnows in desert spring systems

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Peterson, James T.; Scheerer, Paul D.; Clements, Shaun

    2015-01-01

    Desert springs are sensitive aquatic ecosystems that pose unique challenges to natural resource managers and researchers. Among the most important of these is the need to accurately quantify population parameters for resident fish, particularly when the species are of special conservation concern. We evaluated the efficiency of baited minnow traps for estimating the abundance of two at-risk species, Foskett Speckled Dace Rhinichthys osculus ssp. and Borax Lake Chub Gila boraxobius, in desert spring systems in southeastern Oregon. We evaluated alternative sample designs using simulation and found that capture–recapture designs with four capture occasions would maximize the accuracy of estimates and minimize fish handling. We implemented the design and estimated capture and recapture probabilities using the Huggins closed-capture estimator. Trap capture probabilities averaged 23% and 26% for Foskett Speckled Dace and Borax Lake Chub, respectively, but differed substantially among sample locations, through time, and nonlinearly with fish body size. Recapture probabilities for Foskett Speckled Dace were, on average, 1.6 times greater than (first) capture probabilities, suggesting “trap-happy” behavior. Comparison of population estimates from the Huggins model with the commonly used Lincoln–Petersen estimator indicated that the latter underestimated Foskett Speckled Dace and Borax Lake Chub population size by 48% and by 20%, respectively. These biases were due to variability in capture and recapture probabilities. Simulation of fish monitoring that included the range of capture and recapture probabilities observed indicated that variability in capture and recapture probabilities in time negatively affected the ability to detect annual decreases by up to 20% in fish population size. Failure to account for variability in capture and recapture probabilities can lead to poor quality data and study inferences. Therefore, we recommend that fishery researchers and

  9. Carbon-enhanced Metal-poor Stars in SDSS/SEGUE. I. Carbon Abundance Estimation and Frequency of CEMP Stars

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Young Sun; Beers, Timothy C.; Masseron, Thomas; Plez, Bertrand; Rockosi, Constance M.; Sobeck, Jennifer; Yanny, Brian; Lucatello, Sara; Sivarani, Thirupathi; Placco, Vinicius M.; Carollo, Daniela

    2013-11-01

    We describe a method for the determination of stellar [C/Fe] abundance ratios using low-resolution (R = 2000) stellar spectra from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) and its Galactic sub-survey, the Sloan Extension for Galactic Understanding and Exploration (SEGUE). By means of a star-by-star comparison with a set of SDSS/SEGUE spectra with available estimates of [C/Fe] based on published high-resolution analyses, we demonstrate that we can measure [C/Fe] from SDSS/SEGUE spectra with S/N >= 15 Å-1 to a precision better than 0.35 dex for stars with atmospheric parameters in the range T eff = [4400, 6700] K, log g = [1.0, 5.0], [Fe/H] = [-4.0, +0.5], and [C/Fe] = [-0.25, +3.5]. Using the measured carbon-to-iron abundance ratios obtained by this technique, we derive the frequency of carbon-enhanced stars ([C/Fe] >= +0.7) as a function of [Fe/H], for both the SDSS/SEGUE stars and other samples from the literature. We find that the differential frequency slowly rises from almost zero to about 14% at [Fe/H] ~ -2.4, followed by a sudden increase, by about a factor of three, to 39% from [Fe/H] ~ -2.4 to [Fe/H] ~ -3.7. Although the number of stars known with [Fe/H] < -4.0 remains small, the frequency of carbon-enhanced metal-poor (CEMP) stars below this value is around 75%. We also examine how the cumulative frequency of CEMP stars varies across different luminosity classes. The giant sample exhibits a cumulative CEMP frequency of 32% for [Fe/H] <= -2.5, 31% for [Fe/H] <= -3.0, and 33% for [Fe/H] <= -3.5 a roughly constant value. For the main-sequence turnoff stars, we obtain a lower cumulative CEMP frequency, around 10% for [Fe/H] <= -2.5, presumably due to the difficulty of identifying CEMP stars among warmer turnoff stars with weak CH G-bands. The dwarf population displays a large change in the cumulative frequency for CEMP stars below [Fe/H] = -2.5, jumping from 15% for [Fe/H] <= -2.5 to about 75% for [Fe/H] <= -3.0. When we impose a restriction with respect to

  10. Spatio-temporal variation in male white-tailed deer harvest rates in Pennsylvania: Implications for estimating abundance

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Norton, Andrew S.; Diefenbach, Duane R.; Wallingford, Bret D.; Rosenberry, Christopher S.

    2012-01-01

    The performance of 2 popular methods that use age-at-harvest data to estimate abundance of white-tailed deer is contingent on assumptions about variation in estimates of subadult (1.5 yr old) and adult (≥2.5 yr old) male harvest rates. Auxiliary data (e.g., estimates of survival or harvest rates from radiocollared animals) can be used to relax some assumptions, but unless these population parameters exhibit limited temporal or spatial variation, these auxiliary data may not improve accuracy. Unfortunately maintaining sufficient sample sizes of radiocollared deer for parameter estimation in every wildlife management unit (WMU) is not feasible for most state agencies. We monitored the fates of 397 subadult and 225 adult male white-tailed deer across 4 WMUs from 2002 to 2008 using radio telemetry. We investigated spatial and temporal variation in harvest rates and investigated covariates related to the patterns observed. We found that most variation in harvest rates was explained spatially and that adult harvest rates (0.36–0.69) were more variable among study areas than subadult harvest rates (0.26–0.42). We found that hunter effort during the archery and firearms season best explained variation in harvest rates of adult males among WMUs, whereas hunter effort during only the firearms season best explained harvest rates for subadult males. From a population estimation perspective, it is advantageous that most variation was spatial and explained by a readily obtained covariate (hunter effort). However, harvest rates may vary if hunting regulations or hunter behavior change, requiring additional field studies to obtain accurate estimates of harvest rates. 

  11. Forecasting contributions of lake whitefish year-classes to a Lake Superior commercial fishery from estimates of yearling abundance

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Curtis, Gary L.; Bronte, Charles R.; Selgeby, James H.

    1993-01-01

    We developed a simple linear regression model to forecast year-class contributions of lake whitefish Coregonus clupeaformis to the commercial harvest in the Apostle Islands region of Lake Superior. We indexed year-class strength from catches of yearling fish in bottom trawl samples. Recruitment of each year-class was measured by its relative abundance in the fishery at age 6. The relation between recruitment to the commercial fishery and year-class strength indices was positive and significant (r 2 = 0.67, P < 0.01). The model produced reliable estimates of recruitment to the fishery within the range of the regression. Projected recruitment of the 1983–1987 year-classes to the fishery in 1989-1993 should be sufficient to sustain current levels of harvest through 1993.

  12. Membrane vesicles in sea water: heterogeneous DNA content and implications for viral abundance estimates.

    PubMed

    Biller, Steven J; McDaniel, Lauren D; Breitbart, Mya; Rogers, Everett; Paul, John H; Chisholm, Sallie W

    2017-02-01

    Diverse microbes release membrane-bound extracellular vesicles from their outer surfaces into the surrounding environment. Vesicles are found in numerous habitats including the oceans, where they likely have a variety of functional roles in microbial ecosystems. Extracellular vesicles are known to contain a range of biomolecules including DNA, but the frequency with which DNA is packaged in vesicles is unknown. Here, we examine the quantity and distribution of DNA associated with vesicles released from five different bacteria. The average quantity of double-stranded DNA and size distribution of DNA fragments released within vesicles varies among different taxa. Although some vesicles contain sufficient DNA to be visible following staining with the SYBR fluorescent DNA dyes typically used to enumerate viruses, this represents only a small proportion (<0.01-1%) of vesicles. Thus DNA is packaged heterogeneously within vesicle populations, and it appears that vesicles are likely to be a minor component of SYBR-visible particles in natural sea water compared with viruses. Consistent with this hypothesis, chloroform treatment of coastal and offshore seawater samples reveals that vesicles increase epifluorescence-based particle (viral) counts by less than an order of magnitude and their impact is variable in space and time.

  13. The solar silicon abundance based on 3D non-LTE calculations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Amarsi, A. M.; Asplund, M.

    2017-01-01

    We present 3D non-local thermodynamic equilibrium (non-LTE) radiative transfer calculations for silicon in the solar photosphere, using an extensive model atom that includes recent, realistic neutral hydrogen collisional cross-sections. We find that photon losses in the Si I lines give rise to slightly negative non-LTE abundance corrections of the order of -0.01 dex. We infer a 3D non-LTE-based solar silicon abundance of lg ɛ_{Si{⊙}}=7.51 dex. With silicon commonly chosen to be the anchor between the photospheric and meteoritic abundances, we find that the meteoritic abundance scale remains unchanged compared with the Asplund et al. and Lodders et al. results.

  14. Size-Based Hydroacoustic Measures of Within-Season Fish Abundance in a Boreal Freshwater Ecosystem

    PubMed Central

    Pollom, Riley A.; Rose, George A.

    2015-01-01

    Eleven sequential size-based hydroacoustic surveys conducted with a 200 kHz split-beam transducer during the summers of 2011 and 2012 were used to quantify seasonal declines in fish abundance in a boreal reservoir in Manitoba, Canada. Fish densities were sufficiently low to enable single target resolution and tracking. Target strengths converted to log2-based size-classes indicated that smaller fish were consistently more abundant than larger fish by a factor of approximately 3 for each halving of length. For all size classes, in both years, abundance (natural log) declined linearly over the summer at rates that varied from -0.067.day-1 for the smallest fish to -0.016.day-1 for the largest (R2 = 0.24–0.97). Inter-annual comparisons of size-based abundance suggested that for larger fish (>16 cm), mean winter decline rates were an order of magnitude lower (-0.001.day-1) and overall survival higher (71%) than in the main summer fishing season (mean loss rate -0.038.day-1; survival 33%). We conclude that size-based acoustic survey methods have the potential to assess within-season fish abundance dynamics, and may prove useful in long-term monitoring of productivity and hence management of boreal aquatic ecosystems. PMID:25875467

  15. Channel Estimation in DCT-Based OFDM

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Yulin; Zhang, Gengxin; Xie, Zhidong; Hu, Jing

    2014-01-01

    This paper derives the channel estimation of a discrete cosine transform- (DCT-) based orthogonal frequency-division multiplexing (OFDM) system over a frequency-selective multipath fading channel. Channel estimation has been proved to improve system throughput and performance by allowing for coherent demodulation. Pilot-aided methods are traditionally used to learn the channel response. Least square (LS) and mean square error estimators (MMSE) are investigated. We also study a compressed sensing (CS) based channel estimation, which takes the sparse property of wireless channel into account. Simulation results have shown that the CS based channel estimation is expected to have better performance than LS. However MMSE can achieve optimal performance because of prior knowledge of the channel statistic. PMID:24757439

  16. Estimating Decision Indices Based on Composite Scores

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Knupp, Tawnya Lee

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to develop an IRT model that would enable the estimation of decision indices based on composite scores. The composite scores, defined as a combination of unidimensional test scores, were either a total raw score or an average scale score. Additionally, estimation methods for the normal and compound multinomial models…

  17. Comparing Soil and Bison δ13C to Field Estimates of C4 Plant Abundances in North America

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Griffith, D.; Still, C. J.; Cotton, J.; Powell, B.

    2015-12-01

    Stable carbon isotope data (i.e., δ13C) from soils and herbivore tissue are commonly used as a proxy for the relative abundance of C4 and C3 plants at a site. These data are also increasingly used to represent other climatologically relevant properties of vegetated environments, such as productivity, aridity, water use efficiency, and tree cover. The δ13C values of soils and herbivore tissues are generally assumed to resemble their source vegetation, after accounting for diverse fractionation processes during litter decomposition and tissue metabolism and turnover. However, δ13C values have rarely been compared to source vegetation at a regional to continental scale. As a result, the quality of δ13C as a proxy has not been thoroughly evaluated, and the importance of modifying factors have not been assessed at biogeographically relevant scales. To address some of these issues, we combined three multi-source datasets from North America: herbaceous C4 plant abundances from thousands of vegetation plots, hundreds of soil δ13C measurements, and hundreds of bison collagen, hair, and enamel δ13C data (tissues with different turnover rates). These datasets were resampled to common grid for comparison. A stronger relationship with C4 vegetation existed for bison as compared to soil δ13C. To determine which factors might explain deviations in the vegetation plot and isotopic data, we used statistical models to quantify the influence of soil variables, mean annual precipitation and temperature, tree cover, presence of invasives, and fire frequency in conjunction with plot-based C4 abundance data. Our bison model was only improved by the addition of invasives. In contrast, our soil model was significantly improved when accounting for tree cover (C3 vegetation and shade), precipitation, various soil parameters, and invasive grasses, suggesting that soils are more likely to be biased from source vegetation in ways that could influence interpretation as a proxy at broad

  18. Estimating lake-wide abundance of spawning-phase sea lampreys (Petromyzon marinus) in the Great Lakes: extrapolating from sampled streams using regression models

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mullett, Katherine M.; Heinrich, John W.; Adams, Jean V.; Young, Robert J.; Henson, Mary P.; McDonald, Rodney B.; Fodale, Michael F.

    2003-01-01

    Lake-wide abundance of spawning-phase sea lampreys (Petromyzon marinus) can be used as one means to evaluate sea lamprey control efforts in the Great Lakes. Lake-wide abundance in each Great Lake was the sum of estimates for all streams thought to contribute substantial numbers of sea lampreys. A subset of these streams was sampled with traps and mark-recapture studies were conducted. When sea lampreys were captured in traps, but no mark-recapture study was conducted, abundance was estimated from a relation between trap catch and mark-recapture estimates observed in other years. In non-sampled streams, a regression model that used stream drainage area, geographic region, larval sea lamprey, production potential, the number of years since the last lampricide treatment, and spawning year was used to predict abundance of spawning-phase sea lampreys. The combination of estimates from sampled and non-sampled streams provided a 20-year time series of spawning-phase sea lamprey abundance estimates in the Great Lakes.

  19. Modified spectral count index (mSCI) for estimation of protein abundance by protein relative identification possibility (RIPpro): a new proteomic technological parameter.

    PubMed

    Sun, Aihua; Zhang, Jiyang; Wang, Chunping; Yang, Dong; Wei, Handong; Zhu, Yunping; Jiang, Ying; He, Fuchu

    2009-11-01

    Peptides Count (SC) was widely used for protein abundance estimation in proteomics. On the basis of that, Mann and co-workers corrected the SC by dividing spectrum counts by the number of observable peptides per protein and named it PAI. Here we present modified spectral count index (mSCI) for protein abundance estimation, which was defined as the number of observed peptides divided by protein relative identification possibility (RIPpro). RIPpro was derived from 6788 mRNA and protein expression data (collected from human liver samples) and related to proteins' three physical and chemical properties (MW/pI/Hp). For 46 proteins in mouse neuro2a cells, mSCI shows a linear relationship with the actual protein concentration, similar or better than PAI abundance. Also, multiple linear regressions were performed to quantitative assess several factors' impact on the mRNA/protein abundance correlation. Our results shown that the primary factor affecting protein levels was mRNA abundance (32-37%), followed by variability in protein measurement, MW and protein turnover (7-12%,7-9% and 2-3%, respectively). Interestingly, we found that the concordance between mRNA transcripts and protein expression was not consistent among all protein functional categories. This correlation was lower for signaling proteins as compared to metabolism genes. It was determined that RIPpro was the primary factor affecting signaling protein abundance (23% on average), followed by mRNA abundance (17%). In contrast, only 5% (on average) of the variability of metabolic protein abundance was explained by RIPpro, much lower than mRNA abundance (40%). These results provide the impetus for further investigation of the biological significance of mechanisms regulating the mRNA/protein abundance correlation and provide additional insight into the relative importance of the technological parameter (RIPpro) in mRNA/protein correlation research.

  20. Estimating wetland vegetation abundance from Landsat-8 operational land imager imagery: a comparison between linear spectral mixture analysis and multinomial logit modeling methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Min; Gong, Zhaoning; Zhao, Wenji; Pu, Ruiliang; Liu, Ke

    2016-01-01

    Mapping vegetation abundance by using remote sensing data is an efficient means for detecting changes of an eco-environment. With Landsat-8 operational land imager (OLI) imagery acquired on July 31, 2013, both linear spectral mixture analysis (LSMA) and multinomial logit model (MNLM) methods were applied to estimate and assess the vegetation abundance in the Wild Duck Lake Wetland in Beijing, China. To improve mapping vegetation abundance and increase the number of endmembers in spectral mixture analysis, normalized difference vegetation index was extracted from OLI imagery along with the seven reflective bands of OLI data for estimating the vegetation abundance. Five endmembers were selected, which include terrestrial plants, aquatic plants, bare soil, high albedo, and low albedo. The vegetation abundance mapping results from Landsat OLI data were finally evaluated by utilizing a WorldView-2 multispectral imagery. Similar spatial patterns of vegetation abundance produced by both fully constrained LSMA algorithm and MNLM methods were observed: higher vegetation abundance levels were distributed in agricultural and riparian areas while lower levels in urban/built-up areas. The experimental results also indicate that the MNLM model outperformed the LSMA algorithm with smaller root mean square error (0.0152 versus 0.0252) and higher coefficient of determination (0.7856 versus 0.7214) as the MNLM model could handle the nonlinear reflection phenomenon better than the LSMA with mixed pixels.

  1. Molecular abundance profiles characterization of Jupiter'satmosphere using ground-based observations at 5 microns

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Doriann, Blain; Fouchet, Thierry; Encrenaz, Therese A.; Drossart, Pierre; Greathouse, Thomas K.; Fletcher, Leigh N.; Orton, Glenn S.

    2016-10-01

    We report on early results of an observational campaign to support the Juno mission. At the beginning of this year, using TEXES (Texas Echelon cross-dispersed Echelle Spectrograph), mounted on the NASA Infrared Telescope Facility (IRTF), we obtained maps of Jupiter in several spectral ranges between 1800 and 2200 cm-1 which probes the atmosphere in the 1-4 bar region, with a spectral resolution of R ≈ 7000 and an angular resolution of ≈ 1.5''. This dataset is analyzed by a code which combines a line-by-line radiative transfer model with a non-linear optimal estimation inversion method. The inversion takes into account the abundance profiles of AsH3 , CO, GeH4 and H2O, as well as clouds contribution, in addtion to the abundance profiles of NH3 and PH3 . We will present the inverted abundance profiles, their significance for the understanding of Jupiter's atmospheric dynamics, and how they will be useful for the determination of water abundance up to 200 bars, which is one of the main objectives of the instrument MWR (MicroWave Radiometer) mounted on the Juno spacecraft. This work will also be useful to prepare the analysis of the JIRAM (Jovian InfraRed Auroral Mapper) 5-microns data aboard Juno.

  2. Estimation of abundance and distribution of two moist tall grasses in the Watarase wetland, Japan, using hyperspectral imagery

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lu, Shan; Shimizu, Yo; Ishii, Jun; Funakoshi, Syo; Washitani, Izumi; Omasa, Kenji

    The dominant grasses in a wetland are of critical concern for the wetland's ecological integrity, because these species provide the habitats for many small plants and animals. In this study, we used hyperspectral imagery to map the distributions of two dominant tall grasses ( Miscanthus sacchariflorus (Maxim.) Benth and Phragmites australis (Cav.) Trin. ex Stend) in the Watarase wetland, in central Japan. Stepwise multiple linear regression analysis was applied to the hyperspectral data to predict the shoot density and biomass of the two grasses. The independent data sets included original reflectance, band ratios, significant components identified by principal components analysis (PCA), and significant components identified by decision boundary feature extraction (DBFE). The coefficient of determination ( R2) and the root-mean-square error (RMSE) of model calibration and validation were used to evaluate the models. The significant DBFE components showed better ability at predicting shoot density of the two grasses than the other variables in the validating areas. The RMSE values were 7.40/m 2 for M. sacchariflorus and 13.09/m 2 for P. australis, which amounted to errors of around 10.0% and 12.6%, respectively, of the maximum shoot density measured during our surveys. All variables showed similar performance at predicting biomass, but the results were less accurate than those for shoot density. Considering the performance of the DBFE components for both shoot density and biomass prediction, we suggest that these are the best indicators for estimating the abundance of the two grasses.

  3. Estimation of biological nitrogen fixation by black locust in short-rotation forests using natural 15N abundance method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Veste, M.; Böhm, C.; Quinckenstein, A.; Freese, D.

    2012-04-01

    The importance of short rotation forests and agroforestry systems for woody biomass production for bioenergy will increase in Central Europe within the next decades. In this context, black locust (Robinia pseudoacacia) has a high growth potential especially at marginal, drought-susceptible sites such as occur in Brandenburg State (Eastern Germany). As a pioneer tree species black locust grows under a wide range of site conditions. The native range of black locust in Northern America is classified by a humid to sub-humid climate with a mean annual precipitation of 1020 to 1830 mm. In Central and Eastern Europe, this species is cultivated in a more continental climate with an annual precipitation often below 600 mm. Therefore, black locust is known to be relatively drought tolerant compared to other temperate, deciduous tree species. Because of its N2-fixation ability black locust plays generally an important role for the improvement of soil fertility. This effect is of particular interest at marginal sites in the post-mining landscapes. In order to estimate the N2-fixation potential of black locust at marginal sites leaf samples were taken from black locust trees in short rotation plantations planted between 1995 and 2007 in post-mining sites south of Cottbus (Brandenburg, NE Germany). The variation of the natural 15N abundance was measured to evaluate the biological nitrogen fixation. The nitrogen derived from the atmosphere can be calculated using a two-pool model from the quotient of the natural 15N abundances of the N2-fixing plant and the plant available soil N. Because representatively determining the plant available soil N is difficult, a non-N2-fixing reference plant growing at the same site with a similar root system and temporal N uptake pattern to the N2-fixing plant is often used. In our case we used red oak (Quercus rubra) as a reference. The average nitrogen content in the leaves of black locust ranged from 3.1% (C/N 14.8) in 15 years old trees to 3

  4. Comparison of mark-resight methods to estimate abundance and rabies vaccination coverage of free-roaming dogs in two urban areas of south Bhutan.

    PubMed

    Tenzin, Tenzin; McKenzie, Joanna S; Vanderstichel, Raphaël; Rai, Bir Doj; Rinzin, Karma; Tshering, Yeshey; Pem, Rinzin; Tshering, Chenga; Dahal, Narapati; Dukpa, Kinzang; Dorjee, Sithar; Wangchuk, Sonam; Jolly, Peter D; Morris, Roger; Ward, Michael P

    2015-03-01

    In Bhutan, Capture-Neuter-Vaccinate-Release (CNVR) programs have been implemented to manage the dog population and control rabies, but no detailed evaluation has been done to assess their coverage and impact. We compared estimates of the dog population using three analytical methods: Lincoln-Petersen index, the Chapman estimate, and the logit-normal mixed effects model, and a varying number of count periods at different times of the day to recommend a protocol for applying the mark-resight framework to estimate free-roaming dog population abundance. We assessed the coverage of the CNVR program by estimating the proportion of dogs that were ear-notched and visually scored the health and skin condition of free-roaming dogs in Gelephu and Phuentsholing towns in south Bhutan, bordering India, in September-October 2012. The estimated free-roaming dog population in Gelephu using the Lincoln-Petersen index and Chapman estimates ranged from 612 to 672 and 614 to 671, respectively, while the logit-normal mixed effects model estimate based on the combined two count events was 641 (95% CI: 603-682). In Phuentsholing the Lincoln-Petersen index and Chapman estimates ranged from 525 to 583 and 524 to 582, respectively, while the logit-normal mixed effects model estimate based on the combined four count events was 555 (95% CI: 526-587). The total number of dogs counted was significantly associated with the time of day (AM versus PM; P=0.007), with a 17% improvement in dog sightings during the morning counting events. We recommend to conduct a morning marking followed by one count event the next morning and estimate population size by applying the Lincoln-Peterson corrected Chapman method or conduct two morning count events and apply the logit-normal mixed model to estimate population size. The estimated proportion of vaccinated free-roaming dogs was 56% (95% CI: 52-61%) and 58% (95% CI: 53-62%) in Gelephu and Phuentsholing, respectively. Given coverage in many neighbourhoods was

  5. Mineral resources estimation based on block modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bargawa, Waterman Sulistyana; Amri, Nur Ali

    2016-02-01

    The estimation in this paper uses three kinds of block models of nearest neighbor polygon, inverse distance squared and ordinary kriging. The techniques are weighting scheme which is based on the principle that block content is a linear combination of the grade data or the sample around the block being estimated. The case study in Pongkor area, here is gold-silver resource modeling that allegedly shaped of quartz vein as a hydrothermal process of epithermal type. Resources modeling includes of data entry, statistical and variography analysis of topography and geological model, the block model construction, estimation parameter, presentation model and tabulation of mineral resources. Skewed distribution, here isolated by robust semivariogram. The mineral resources classification generated in this model based on an analysis of the kriging standard deviation and number of samples which are used in the estimation of each block. Research results are used to evaluate the performance of OK and IDS estimator. Based on the visual and statistical analysis, concluded that the model of OK gives the estimation closer to the data used for modeling.

  6. Improved ground-based FTS measurement for column abundance CO2 retrievals(Conference Presentation)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goo, Tae-Young

    2016-10-01

    The National Institute of Meteorological Sciences has operated a ground-based Fourier Transform Spectrometer (FTS) at Anmyeondo, Korea since December 2012. Anmyeondo FTS site is a designated operational station of Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) and belongs to regional Global Atmosphere Watch observatory. A Bruker IFS-125HR model, which has a significantly high spectral resolution by 0.02 cm-1, is employed and instrument specification is almost same as the TCCON configuration. such as a spectrum range of 3,800 16,000 cm-1, a resolution of 1 cm-1, InGaAs and Si-Diode detectors and CaF2 beam splitter. It is found that measured spectra have a good agreement with simulated spectra. In order to improve the spectral accuracy and stability, The Operational Automatic System for Intensity of Sunray (OASIS) has been developed. The OASIS can provide consistent photon energy optimized to detector range by controlling the diameter of solar beam reflected from the mirror of suntracker. As a result, monthly modulation efficiency (ME), which indicates the spectral accuracy of FTS measurement, has been recorded the vicinity of 99.9% since Feb 2015. The ME of 98% is regarded as the error of 0.1% in the ground-based in-situ CO2 measurement. Total column abundances of CO2 and CH4 during 2015 are estimated by using GGG v14 and compared with ground-based in-situ CO2 and CH4 measurements at the height of 86 m above sea level. The seasonality of CO2 is well captured by both FTS and in-situ measurements while there is considerable difference on the amplitude of CO2 seasonal variation due to the insensitivity of column CO2 to the surface carbon cycle dynamics in nature as well as anthropogenic sources. Total column CO2 and CH4 approximately vary from 395 ppm to 405 ppm and from 1.82 ppm to 1.88 ppm, respectively. It should be noted that few measurements obtained in July to August because of a lot of cloud and fog. It is found that enhancement of CH4 from the FTS at Anmyeondo

  7. Isolation and enrichment of low abundant particles with insulator-based dielectrophoresis

    PubMed Central

    LaLonde, Alexandra; Romero-Creel, Maria F.; Saucedo-Espinosa, Mario A.; Lapizco-Encinas, Blanca H.

    2015-01-01

    Isolation and enrichment of low-abundant particles are essential steps in many bio-analytical and clinical applications. In this work, the capability of an insulator-based dielectrophoresis (iDEP) device for the detection and stable capture of low abundant polystyrene particles and yeast cells was evaluated. Binary and tertiary mixtures of particles and cells were tested, where the low-abundant particles had concentration ratios on the order of 1:10 000 000 compared to the other particles present in the mixture. The results demonstrated successful and stable capture and enrichment of rare particles and cells (trapping efficiencies over 99%), where particles remained trapped in a stable manner for up to 4 min. A device with four reservoirs was employed for the separation and enrichment of rare particles, where the particles of interest were first selectively concentrated and then effectively directed to a side port for future collection and analysis. The present study demonstrates that simple iDEP devices have appropriate screening capacity and can be used for handling samples containing rare particles; achieving both enrichment and isolation of low-abundant particles and cells. PMID:26674134

  8. [Automatic Measurement of the Stellar Atmospheric Parameters Based Mass Estimation].

    PubMed

    Tu, Liang-ping; Wei, Hui-ming; Luo, A-li; Zhao, Yong-heng

    2015-11-01

    We have collected massive stellar spectral data in recent years, which leads to the research on the automatic measurement of stellar atmospheric physical parameters (effective temperature Teff, surface gravity log g and metallic abundance [Fe/ H]) become an important issue. To study the automatic measurement of these three parameters has important significance for some scientific problems, such as the evolution of the universe and so on. But the research of this problem is not very widely, some of the current methods are not able to estimate the values of the stellar atmospheric physical parameters completely and accurately. So in this paper, an automatic method to predict stellar atmospheric parameters based on mass estimation was presented, which can achieve the prediction of stellar effective temperature Teff, surface gravity log g and metallic abundance [Fe/H]. This method has small amount of computation and fast training speed. The main idea of this method is that firstly it need us to build some mass distributions, secondly the original spectral data was mapped into the mass space and then to predict the stellar parameter with the support vector regression (SVR) in the mass space. we choose the stellar spectral data from the United States SDSS-DR8 for the training and testing. We also compared the predicted results of this method with the SSPP and achieve higher accuracy. The predicted results are more stable and the experimental results show that the method is feasible and can predict the stellar atmospheric physical parameters effectively.

  9. Estimating juvenile Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) abundance from beach seine data collected in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta and San Francisco Bay, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Perry, Russell W.; Kirsch, Joseph E.; Hendrix, A. Noble

    2016-06-17

    Resource managers rely on abundance or density metrics derived from beach seine surveys to make vital decisions that affect fish population dynamics and assemblage structure. However, abundance and density metrics may be biased by imperfect capture and lack of geographic closure during sampling. Currently, there is considerable uncertainty about the capture efficiency of juvenile Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) by beach seines. Heterogeneity in capture can occur through unrealistic assumptions of closure and from variation in the probability of capture caused by environmental conditions. We evaluated the assumptions of closure and the influence of environmental conditions on capture efficiency and abundance estimates of Chinook salmon from beach seining within the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta and the San Francisco Bay. Beach seine capture efficiency was measured using a stratified random sampling design combined with open and closed replicate depletion sampling. A total of 56 samples were collected during the spring of 2014. To assess variability in capture probability and the absolute abundance of juvenile Chinook salmon, beach seine capture efficiency data were fitted to the paired depletion design using modified N-mixture models. These models allowed us to explicitly test the closure assumption and estimate environmental effects on the probability of capture. We determined that our updated method allowing for lack of closure between depletion samples drastically outperformed traditional data analysis that assumes closure among replicate samples. The best-fit model (lowest-valued Akaike Information Criterion model) included the probability of fish being available for capture (relaxed closure assumption), capture probability modeled as a function of water velocity and percent coverage of fine sediment, and abundance modeled as a function of sample area, temperature, and water velocity. Given that beach seining is a ubiquitous sampling technique for

  10. Entropy Based Modelling for Estimating Demographic Trends.

    PubMed

    Li, Guoqi; Zhao, Daxuan; Xu, Yi; Kuo, Shyh-Hao; Xu, Hai-Yan; Hu, Nan; Zhao, Guangshe; Monterola, Christopher

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, an entropy-based method is proposed to forecast the demographical changes of countries. We formulate the estimation of future demographical profiles as a constrained optimization problem, anchored on the empirically validated assumption that the entropy of age distribution is increasing in time. The procedure of the proposed method involves three stages, namely: 1) Prediction of the age distribution of a country's population based on an "age-structured population model"; 2) Estimation the age distribution of each individual household size with an entropy-based formulation based on an "individual household size model"; and 3) Estimation the number of each household size based on a "total household size model". The last stage is achieved by projecting the age distribution of the country's population (obtained in stage 1) onto the age distributions of individual household sizes (obtained in stage 2). The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated by feeding real world data, and it is general and versatile enough to be extended to other time dependent demographic variables.

  11. Estimating the abundance of airborne pollen and fungal spores at variable elevations using an aircraft: how high can they fly?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Damialis, Athanasios; Kaimakamis, Evangelos; Konoglou, Maria; Akritidis, Ioannis; Traidl-Hoffmann, Claudia; Gioulekas, Dimitrios

    2017-03-01

    Airborne pollen and fungal spores are monitored mainly in highly populated, urban environments, for allergy prevention purposes. However, their sources can frequently be located outside cities’ fringes with more vegetation. So as to shed light to this paradox, we investigated the diversity and abundance of airborne pollen and fungal spores at various environmental regimes. We monitored pollen and spores using an aircraft and a car, at elevations from sea level to 2,000 m above ground, in the region of Thesssaloniki, Greece. We found a total of 24 pollen types and more than 15 spore types. Pollen and spores were detected throughout the elevational transect. Lower elevations exhibited higher pollen concentrations in only half of plant taxa and higher fungal spore concentrations in only Ustilago. Pinaceae and Quercus pollen were the most abundant recorded by airplane (>54% of the total). Poaceae pollen were the most abundant via car measurements (>77% of the total). Cladosporium and Alternaria spores were the most abundant in all cases (aircraft: >69% and >17%, car: >45% and >27%, respectively). We conclude that pollen and fungal spores can be diverse and abundant even outside the main source area, evidently because of long-distance transport incidents.

  12. Estimating the abundance of airborne pollen and fungal spores at variable elevations using an aircraft: how high can they fly?

    PubMed Central

    Damialis, Athanasios; Kaimakamis, Evangelos; Konoglou, Maria; Akritidis, Ioannis; Traidl-Hoffmann, Claudia; Gioulekas, Dimitrios

    2017-01-01

    Airborne pollen and fungal spores are monitored mainly in highly populated, urban environments, for allergy prevention purposes. However, their sources can frequently be located outside cities’ fringes with more vegetation. So as to shed light to this paradox, we investigated the diversity and abundance of airborne pollen and fungal spores at various environmental regimes. We monitored pollen and spores using an aircraft and a car, at elevations from sea level to 2,000 m above ground, in the region of Thesssaloniki, Greece. We found a total of 24 pollen types and more than 15 spore types. Pollen and spores were detected throughout the elevational transect. Lower elevations exhibited higher pollen concentrations in only half of plant taxa and higher fungal spore concentrations in only Ustilago. Pinaceae and Quercus pollen were the most abundant recorded by airplane (>54% of the total). Poaceae pollen were the most abundant via car measurements (>77% of the total). Cladosporium and Alternaria spores were the most abundant in all cases (aircraft: >69% and >17%, car: >45% and >27%, respectively). We conclude that pollen and fungal spores can be diverse and abundant even outside the main source area, evidently because of long-distance transport incidents. PMID:28300143

  13. Small-mammal density estimation: A field comparison of grid-based vs. web-based density estimators

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Parmenter, R.R.; Yates, Terry L.; Anderson, D.R.; Burnham, K.P.; Dunnum, J.L.; Franklin, A.B.; Friggens, M.T.; Lubow, B.C.; Miller, M.; Olson, G.S.; Parmenter, Cheryl A.; Pollard, J.; Rexstad, E.; Shenk, T.M.; Stanley, T.R.; White, Gary C.

    2003-01-01

    blind” test allowed us to evaluate the influence of expertise and experience in calculating density estimates in comparison to simply using default values in programs CAPTURE and DISTANCE. While the rodent sample sizes were considerably smaller than the recommended minimum for good model results, we found that several models performed well empirically, including the web-based uniform and half-normal models in program DISTANCE, and the grid-based models Mb and Mbh in program CAPTURE (with AÌ‚ adjusted by species-specific full mean maximum distance moved (MMDM) values). These models produced accurate DÌ‚ values (with 95% confidence intervals that included the true D values) and exhibited acceptable bias but poor precision. However, in linear regression analyses comparing each model's DÌ‚ values to the true D values over the range of observed test densities, only the web-based uniform model exhibited a regression slope near 1.0; all other models showed substantial slope deviations, indicating biased estimates at higher or lower density values. In addition, the grid-based DÌ‚ analyses using full MMDM values for WÌ‚ area adjustments required a number of theoretical assumptions of uncertain validity, and we therefore viewed their empirical successes with caution. Finally, density estimates from the independent analysts were highly variable, but estimates from web-based approaches had smaller mean square errors and better achieved confidence-interval coverage of D than did grid-based approaches. Our results support the contention that web-based approaches for density estimation of small-mammal populations are both theoretically and empirically superior to grid-based approaches, even when sample size is far less than often recommended. In view of the increasing need for standardized environmental measures for comparisons among ecosystems and through time, analytical models based on distance sampling appear to offer accurate density estimation approaches for research

  14. Including independent estimates and uncertainty to quantify total abundance of fish migrating in a large river system: walleye (Sander vitreus) in the Maumee River, Ohio

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Pritt, Jeremy J.; DuFour, Mark R.; Mayer, Christine M.; Kocovsky, Patrick M.; Tyson, Jeffrey T.; Weimer, Eric J.; Vandergoot, Christopher S.

    2013-01-01

    Walleye (Sander vitreus) in Lake Erie is a valuable and migratory species that spawns in tributaries. We used hydroacoustic sampling, gill net sampling, and Bayesian state-space modeling to estimate the spawning stock abundance, characterize size and sex structure, and explore environmental factors cuing migration of walleye in the Maumee River for 2011 and 2012. We estimated the spawning stock abundance to be between 431,000 and 1,446,000 individuals in 2011 and between 386,400 and 857,200 individuals in 2012 (95% Bayesian credible intervals). A back-calculation from a concurrent larval fish study produced an estimate of 78,000 to 237,000 spawners for 2011. The sex ratio was skewed towards males early in the spawning season but approached 1:1 later, and larger individuals entered the river earlier in the season than smaller individuals. Walleye migration was greater during low river discharge and intermediate temperatures. Our approach to estimating absolute abundance and uncertainty as well as characterization of the spawning stock could improve assessment and management of this species, and our methodology is applicable to other diadromous populations.

  15. Muscle parameters estimation based on biplanar radiography.

    PubMed

    Dubois, G; Rouch, P; Bonneau, D; Gennisson, J L; Skalli, W

    2016-11-01

    The evaluation of muscle and joint forces in vivo is still a challenge. Musculo-Skeletal (musculo-skeletal) models are used to compute forces based on movement analysis. Most of them are built from a scaled-generic model based on cadaver measurements, which provides a low level of personalization, or from Magnetic Resonance Images, which provide a personalized model in lying position. This study proposed an original two steps method to access a subject-specific musculo-skeletal model in 30 min, which is based solely on biplanar X-Rays. First, the subject-specific 3D geometry of bones and skin envelopes were reconstructed from biplanar X-Rays radiography. Then, 2200 corresponding control points were identified between a reference model and the subject-specific X-Rays model. Finally, the shape of 21 lower limb muscles was estimated using a non-linear transformation between the control points in order to fit the muscle shape of the reference model to the X-Rays model. Twelfth musculo-skeletal models were reconstructed and compared to their reference. The muscle volume was not accurately estimated with a standard deviation (SD) ranging from 10 to 68%. However, this method provided an accurate estimation the muscle line of action with a SD of the length difference lower than 2% and a positioning error lower than 20 mm. The moment arm was also well estimated with SD lower than 15% for most muscle, which was significantly better than scaled-generic model for most muscle. This method open the way to a quick modeling method for gait analysis based on biplanar radiography.

  16. Diatom species abundance and morphologically-based dissolution proxies in coastal Southern Ocean assemblages

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Warnock, Jonathan P.; Scherer, Reed P.

    2015-07-01

    Taphonomic processes alter diatom assemblages in sediments, thus potentially negatively impacting paleoclimate records at various rates across space, time, and taxa. However, quantitative taphonomic data is rarely included in diatom-based paleoenvironmental reconstructions and no objective standard exists for comparing diatom dissolution in sediments recovered from marine depositional settings, including the Southern Ocean's opal belt. Furthermore, identifying changes to diatom dissolution through time can provide insight into the efficiency of both upper water column nutrient recycling and the biological pump. This is significant in that reactive metal proxies (e.g. Al, Ti) in the sediments only account for post-depositional dissolution, not the water column where the majority of dissolution occurs. In order to assess the range of variability of responses to dissolution in a typical Southern Ocean diatom community and provide a quantitative guideline for assessing taphonomic variability in diatoms recovered from core material, a sediment trap sample was subjected to controlled, serial dissolution. By evaluating dissolution-induced changes to diatom species' relative abundance, three preservational categories of diatoms have been identified: gracile, intermediate, and robust. The relative abundances of these categories can be used to establish a preservation grade for diatom assemblages. However, changes to the relative abundances of diatom species in sediment samples may reflect taphonomic or ecological factors. In order to address this complication, relative abundance changes have been tied to dissolution-induced morphological change to the areolae of Fragilariopsis curta, a significant sea-ice indicator in Southern Ocean sediments. This correlation allows differentiation between gracile species loss to dissolution versus ecological factors or sediment winnowing. These results mirror a similar morphological dissolution index from a parallel study utilizing

  17. Model-Based Estimation of Knee Stiffness

    PubMed Central

    Pfeifer, Serge; Vallery, Heike; Hardegger, Michael; Riener, Robert; Perreault, Eric J.

    2013-01-01

    During natural locomotion, the stiffness of the human knee is modulated continuously and subconsciously according to the demands of activity and terrain. Given modern actuator technology, powered transfemoral prostheses could theoretically provide a similar degree of sophistication and function. However, experimentally quantifying knee stiffness modulation during natural gait is challenging. Alternatively, joint stiffness could be estimated in a less disruptive manner using electromyography (EMG) combined with kinetic and kinematic measurements to estimate muscle force, together with models that relate muscle force to stiffness. Here we present the first step in that process, where we develop such an approach and evaluate it in isometric conditions, where experimental measurements are more feasible. Our EMG-guided modeling approach allows us to consider conditions with antagonistic muscle activation, a phenomenon commonly observed in physiological gait. Our validation shows that model-based estimates of knee joint stiffness coincide well with experimental data obtained using conventional perturbation techniques. We conclude that knee stiffness can be accurately estimated in isometric conditions without applying perturbations, which presents an important step towards our ultimate goal of quantifying knee stiffness during gait. PMID:22801482

  18. Small-scale temporal and spatial variability in the abundance of plastic pellets on sandy beaches: Methodological considerations for estimating the input of microplastics.

    PubMed

    Moreira, Fabiana Tavares; Prantoni, Alessandro Lívio; Martini, Bruno; de Abreu, Michelle Alves; Stoiev, Sérgio Biato; Turra, Alexander

    2016-01-15

    Microplastics such as pellets have been reported for many years on sandy beaches around the globe. Nevertheless, high variability is observed in their estimates and distribution patterns across the beach environment are still to be unravelled. Here, we investigate the small-scale temporal and spatial variability in the abundance of pellets in the intertidal zone of a sandy beach and evaluate factors that can increase the variability in data sets. The abundance of pellets was estimated during twelve consecutive tidal cycles, identifying the position of the high tide between cycles and sampling drift-lines across the intertidal zone. We demonstrate that beach dynamic processes such as the overlap of strandlines and artefacts of the methods can increase the small-scale variability. The results obtained are discussed in terms of the methodological considerations needed to understand the distribution of pellets in the beach environment, with special implications for studies focused on patterns of input.

  19. Evaluation of single and two-stage adaptive sampling designs for estimation of density and abundance of freshwater mussels in a large river

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Smith, D.R.; Rogala, J.T.; Gray, B.R.; Zigler, S.J.; Newton, T.J.

    2011-01-01

    Reliable estimates of abundance are needed to assess consequences of proposed habitat restoration and enhancement projects on freshwater mussels in the Upper Mississippi River (UMR). Although there is general guidance on sampling techniques for population assessment of freshwater mussels, the actual performance of sampling designs can depend critically on the population density and spatial distribution at the project site. To evaluate various sampling designs, we simulated sampling of populations, which varied in density and degree of spatial clustering. Because of logistics and costs of large river sampling and spatial clustering of freshwater mussels, we focused on adaptive and non-adaptive versions of single and two-stage sampling. The candidate designs performed similarly in terms of precision (CV) and probability of species detection for fixed sample size. Both CV and species detection were determined largely by density, spatial distribution and sample size. However, designs did differ in the rate that occupied quadrats were encountered. Occupied units had a higher probability of selection using adaptive designs than conventional designs. We used two measures of cost: sample size (i.e. number of quadrats) and distance travelled between the quadrats. Adaptive and two-stage designs tended to reduce distance between sampling units, and thus performed better when distance travelled was considered. Based on the comparisons, we provide general recommendations on the sampling designs for the freshwater mussels in the UMR, and presumably other large rivers.

  20. The measurement of elemental abundances above 10 sup 15 eV at a lunar base

    SciTech Connect

    Swordy, S.P. )

    1990-03-15

    At {approx}10{sup 15} eV the slope of the energy spectrum of cosmic rays becomes significantly steeper than at lower energies. The measurement of relative elemental abundances at these energies is expected to provide a means to resolve the origin of this feature and greatly contribute to the understanding of the sources of cosmic rays. We describe a moon based detector for making well resolved elemental measurements at these energies using hadronic calorimetry. This detector is particularly well suited for a site on the lunar surface because there is no overlying layer of atmosphere and the large mass required can be provided by the lunar regolith.

  1. Constraining the Galactic potential via action-based distribution functions for mono-abundance stellar populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ting, Yuan-Sen; Rix, Hans-Walter; Bovy, Jo; van de Ven, Glenn

    2013-09-01

    We present a rigorous and practical way of constraining the Galactic potential based on the phase-space information for many individual stars. Such an approach is needed to dynamically model the data from ongoing spectroscopic surveys of the Galaxy and in the future Gaia. This approach describes the orbit distribution of stars by a family of parametrized distribution function (DF) proposed by McMillan and Binney, which are based on actions. We find that these parametrized DFs are flexible enough to capture well the observed phase-space distributions of individual abundance-selected Galactic subpopulations of stars (`mono-abundance populations') for a disc-like gravitational potential, which enables independent dynamical constraints from each of the Galactic mono-abundance populations. We lay out a statistically rigorous way to constrain the Galactic potential parameters by constructing the joint likelihood of potential and DF parameters, and subsequently marginalizing over the DF parameters. This approach explicitly incorporates the spatial selection function inherent to all Galactic surveys, and can account for the uncertainties of the individual position-velocity observations. On that basis, we study the precision of the parameters of the Galactic potential that can be reached with various sample sizes and realistic spatial selection functions. By creating mock samples from the DF, we show that, even under a restrictive and realistic spatial selection function, given a two-parameter gravitational potential, one can recover the true potential parameters to a few per cent with sample sizes of a few thousands. The assumptions of axisymmetry, of DFs that are smooth in the actions and of no time variation remain important limitations in our current study.

  2. Vortex-Based Aero- and Hydrodynamic Estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hemati, Maziar Sam

    Flow control strategies often require knowledge of unmeasurable quantities, thus presenting a need to reconstruct flow states from measurable ones. In this thesis, the modeling, simulation, and estimator design aspects of flow reconstruction are considered. First, a vortex-based aero- and hydrodynamic estimation paradigm is developed to design a wake sensing algorithm for aircraft formation flight missions. The method assimilates wing distributed pressure measurements with a vortex-based wake model to better predict the state of the flow. The study compares Kalman-type algorithms with particle filtering algorithms, demonstrating that the vortex nonlinearities require particle filters to yield adequate performance. Furthermore, the observability structure of the wake is shown to have a negative impact on filter performance regardless of the algorithm applied. It is demonstrated that relative motions can alleviate the filter divergence issues associated with this observability structure. In addition to estimator development, the dissertation addresses the need for an efficient unsteady multi-body aerodynamics testbed for estimator and controller validation studies. A pure vortex particle implementation of a vortex panel-particle method is developed to satisfy this need. The numerical method is demonstrated on the impulsive startup of a flat plate as well as the impulsive startup of a multi-wing formation. It is clear, from these validation studies, that the method is able to accommodate the unsteady wake effects that arise in formation flight missions. Lastly, successful vortex-based estimation is highly dependent on the reliability of the low-order vortex model used in representing the flow of interest. The present treatise establishes a systematic framework for vortex model improvement, grounded in optimal control theory and the calculus of variations. By minimizing model predicted errors with respect to empirical data, the shortcomings of the baseline vortex model

  3. Rapid determination of bacterial abundance, biovolume, morphology, and growth by neural network-based image analysis

    PubMed

    Blackburn; Hagstrom; Wikner; Cuadros-Hansson; Bjornsen

    1998-09-01

    Annual bacterial plankton dynamics at several depths and locations in the Baltic Sea were studied by image analysis. Individual bacteria were classified by using an artificial neural network which also effectively identified nonbacterial objects. Cell counts and frequencies of dividing cells were determined, and the data obtained agreed well with visual observations and previously published values. Cell volumes were measured accurately by comparison with bead standards. The survey included 690 images from a total of 138 samples. Each image contained approximately 200 bacteria. The images were analyzed automatically at a rate of 100 images per h. Bacterial abundance exhibited coherent patterns with time and depth, and there were distinct subsurface peaks in the summer months. Four distinct morphological classes were resolved by the image analyzer, and the dynamics of each could be visualized. The bacterial growth rates estimated from frequencies of dividing cells were different from the bacterial growth rates estimated by the thymidine incorporation method. With minor modifications, the image analysis technique described here can be used to analyze other planktonic classes.

  4. Rapid Determination of Bacterial Abundance, Biovolume, Morphology, and Growth by Neural Network-Based Image Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Blackburn, Nicholas; Hagström, Åke; Wikner, Johan; Cuadros-Hansson, Rocio; Bjørnsen, Peter Koefoed

    1998-01-01

    Annual bacterial plankton dynamics at several depths and locations in the Baltic Sea were studied by image analysis. Individual bacteria were classified by using an artificial neural network which also effectively identified nonbacterial objects. Cell counts and frequencies of dividing cells were determined, and the data obtained agreed well with visual observations and previously published values. Cell volumes were measured accurately by comparison with bead standards. The survey included 690 images from a total of 138 samples. Each image contained approximately 200 bacteria. The images were analyzed automatically at a rate of 100 images per h. Bacterial abundance exhibited coherent patterns with time and depth, and there were distinct subsurface peaks in the summer months. Four distinct morphological classes were resolved by the image analyzer, and the dynamics of each could be visualized. The bacterial growth rates estimated from frequencies of dividing cells were different from the bacterial growth rates estimated by the thymidine incorporation method. With minor modifications, the image analysis technique described here can be used to analyze other planktonic classes. PMID:9726867

  5. Algal class abundances in the western equatorial Pacific: Estimation from HPLC measurements of chloroplast pigments using CHEMTAX

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mackey, D. J.; Higgins, H. W.; Mackey, M. D.; Holdsworth, D.

    1998-09-01

    Samplels for the analysis of phytoplankton photosynthesis pigments were collected from the equatorial Pacific (5°N to 15°S along 155°E) in October 1990 as part of the Australian contribution to the JGOFS program. Chlorophyll and carotenoid pigments were measured by HPLC using a diode-array detector. A PC-based computer program was used to optimise the pigment ratios and to estimate the contributions of 10 algal classes to the total chlorophyll a concentration at each location and in 7 separate depth bands. For the pigments that occur in more than one algal class, the pigment: chlorophyll a ratios for 19'-butanoyloxyfucoxanthin and 19'-hexanoyloxyfucoxanthin (chrysophytes and haptophytes), neoxanthin (prasinophytes, euglenophytes and chlorophytes) and chlorophyll b (prasinophytes, euglenophytes, prochlorophytes and chlorophytes) increase with depth, while those of violaxanthin (prasinophytes and chlorophytes), diadinoxanthin (dinoflagellates, chrysophytes, haptophytes, euglenophytes and diatoms), lutein (prasinophytes and chlorophytes) and, zeaxanthin (prasinophytes, cyanobacteria, prochlorophytes and chlorophytes) decrease with depth. Peridinin: chlorophyll a increases with depth in dinoflagellates, while alloxanthin: chlorophyll a decreases with depth in cryptomonads. The only pigment ratio that does not change consistently with depth is that of fucoxanthin, which increases with depth in chrysophytes and haptophytes but decreases in diatoms. Based on their contribution to the total chlorophyll a, cyanobacteria ( Synechococcus) were dominant in the nutrient depleted surface waters, haptophytes were dominant at mid depth (70 m), and prochlorophytes were dominant at depths of 100-125 m. These three algal classes were by far the most important, and each contributed up to 30-40% of the total chloro-phyll a at some depth within the water column. Chlorophytes and chrysophytes contributed up to a maximum of about 12% of the total chlorophyll a, while cryptophytes

  6. A comparison of two collection methods for estimating abundance and parity of Anopheles albimanus in breeding sites and villages of southern Mexico.

    PubMed

    Ulloa, A; Rodríguez, M H; Rodríguez, A D; Roberts, D R

    1997-09-01

    The abundance and age structure of Anopheles albimanus populations were estimated by UV updraft light traps and human landing catches within villages and in nearby breeding sites of southern México. Four villages and 5 breeding sites were selected for the study. Light trap and human landing catches were simultaneously carried out in each breeding site and each village. Anopheles albimanus was the most abundant malaria vector caught in breeding sites and in villages. Significant differences in overall An. albimanus abundance among villages and among breeding sites were detected only by human landing catches. In both villages and breeding sites, more mosquitoes were captured by 1 human bait (34.3 +/- 6.3 and 14.6 +/- 2.9, respectively) than by one light trap (15.9 +/- 3.3 and 2.4 +/- 0.3 respectively) collection. After pooling, no significant differences were detected in the abundance estimated by each method in breeding sites and villages. A significant correlation of numbers of specimens between methods was detected. Age structure was different between samples from breeding sites and villages, with more gravid females collected in breeding sites, whereas more nulipars were collected in villages. By collection method, age structure was also different both in breeding sites and in villages. In breeding sites, the percentage of parous females was significantly higher in human landing catches, whereas the percentage of gravid females was significantly higher in light traps. In villages, only the percentage of gravid females was significantly higher in light traps. Our results suggests that UV light traps could be used to measure several entomological parameters of An. albimanus populations because both abundance variations and parity rates were similarly detected by both methods.

  7. Model-based estimation of individual fitness

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Link, W.A.; Cooch, E.G.; Cam, E.

    2002-01-01

    Fitness is the currency of natural selection, a measure of the propagation rate of genotypes into future generations. Its various definitions have the common feature that they are functions of survival and fertility rates. At the individual level, the operative level for natural selection, these rates must be understood as latent features, genetically determined propensities existing at birth. This conception of rates requires that individual fitness be defined and estimated by consideration of the individual in a modelled relation to a group of similar individuals; the only alternative is to consider a sample of size one, unless a clone of identical individuals is available. We present hierarchical models describing individual heterogeneity in survival and fertility rates and allowing for associations between these rates at the individual level. We apply these models to an analysis of life histories of Kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla) observed at several colonies on the Brittany coast of France. We compare Bayesian estimation of the population distribution of individual fitness with estimation based on treating individual life histories in isolation, as samples of size one (e.g. McGraw and Caswell, 1996).

  8. Model-based estimation of individual fitness

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Link, W.A.; Cooch, E.G.; Cam, E.

    2002-01-01

    Fitness is the currency of natural selection, a measure of the propagation rate of genotypes into future generations. Its various definitions have the common feature that they are functions of survival and fertility rates. At the individual level, the operative level for natural selection, these rates must be understood as latent features, genetically determined propensities existing at birth. This conception of rates requires that individual fitness be defined and estimated by consideration of the individual in a modelled relation to a group of similar individuals; the only alternative is to consider a sample of size one, unless a clone of identical individuals is available. We present hierarchical models describing individual heterogeneity in survival and fertility rates and allowing for associations between these rates at the individual level. We apply these models to an analysis of life histories of Kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla ) observed at several colonies on the Brittany coast of France. We compare Bayesian estimation of the population distribution of individual fitness with estimation based on treating individual life histories in isolation, as samples of size one (e.g. McGraw & Caswell, 1996).

  9. Detection of an Abundant Plant-Based Small RNA in Healthy Consumers

    PubMed Central

    Yang, Jian; Farmer, Lisa M.; Agyekum, Abia A. A.; Elbaz-Younes, Ismail; Hirschi, Kendal D.

    2015-01-01

    The mechanisms of delivery of plant small RNAs to consumers must be investigated in order to harness this technology to positively impact biotechnology. Two groups have used honeysuckle (Lonicera japonica) feeding regimes to detect a plant-based small RNA, termed MIR2911, in sera. Meanwhile, numerous groups have failed to detect dietary plant-based small RNAs in consumers. Here we catalog levels of MIR2911 in different herbs, and suggest that in particular herb MIR2911 levels are elevated. Feeding these different herb-based diets to mice, we found MIR2911 levels in the sera and urine were associated with dietary intake levels. Abundance was not the sole determinate of apparent RNA bioavailability, as gavage-feeding large-doses of synthetic MIR2911 permitted only small transient increases in serum levels. Dietary MIR2911 were not modified in circulation by association with the host’s RNA-induced silencing complex, as the RNA did not co-immunoprecipitate with AGO2. The stability of dietary MIR2911 in circulation differed from synthesized small RNAs, as tail vein administration of various synthetic plant-based small RNAs resulted in rapid clearance. However, synthetic MIR2911 appeared to be more stable than the other plant miRNAs tested. Notably, this uptake of dietary MIR2911 was not related to perturbations in the host’s microbiome or gut permeability. We suggest dietary uptake of MIR2911 is commonplace in healthy consumers, and reproducible detection of plant-based small RNAs in consumers depends on dietary abundance, RNA stability and digestion from within the food-matrix. PMID:26335106

  10. Revealing the Volatile Abundances in Comet C/2012 F6 (Lemmon) From Ground-based Observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Milam, Stefanie N.; Gicquel, A.; Cordiner, M. A.; Villanueva, G. L.; Remijan, A. J.; Biver, N.; Bockelee-Morvan, D.; Charnley, S. B.

    2013-10-01

    Comets are comprised of molecular ices that may be pristine interstellar remnants of Solar System formation, along with high-temperature crystalline silicate dust that is indicative of a more thermally varied history in the protosolar nebula [1]. Comparing abundances of cometary parent volatiles and isotopic fractionation ratios to those found in the interstellar medium, in disks around young stars, and between cometary families, is vital to understanding planetary system formation and the processing history experienced by organic matter in the so-called interstellar-comet connection. Recently, there have been complimentary observations from multiple facilities to try to unravel the chemical complexity of comets. We report spectral observations of C/2012 F6 (Lemmon) from the Arizona Radio Observatory’s Submillimeter Telescope and the Atacama Pathfinder Experiment. Multiple parent volatiles (e.g. HCN, CH3OH, CO) as well as a number of daughter products (e.g. CS) have been detected at multiple transitions from these facilities. Previous work has revealed a range of abundances of parent species (from “organics-poor” to “organics-rich”) with respect to water among comets [2,3,4], however the statistics are still poorly constrained and interpretations of the observed compositional diversity are uncertain. We will compare the molecular abundances of F6 to a broad range of comets from diverse dynamical families and chemical compositions, supporting our long-term effort of building a comet taxonomy based on composition. [1] Wooden 2008, SpSciRev., 138, 75. [2] DiSanti, M. A., & Mumma, M. J. (2008), Space Sci. Rev., 138, 127. [3] Mumma, M. J. and Charnley, S.B. (2011), ARA&A, 49, 471. [4] Crovisier, J. et al. (2009) Earth, Moon Planet, 105, 267.

  11. A new solar carbon abundance based on non-LTE CN molecular spectra

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mount, G. H.; Linsky, J. L.

    1975-01-01

    A detailed non-LTE analysis of solar CN spectra strongly suggest a revised carbon abundance for the sun. We recommend a value of log carbon abundance = 8.35 plus or minus 0.15 which is significantly lower than the presently accepted value of log carbon abundance = 8.55. This revision may have important consequences in astrophysics.

  12. Particle Pollution Estimation Based on Image Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Chenbin; Tsow, Francis; Zou, Yi; Tao, Nongjian

    2016-01-01

    Exposure to fine particles can cause various diseases, and an easily accessible method to monitor the particles can help raise public awareness and reduce harmful exposures. Here we report a method to estimate PM air pollution based on analysis of a large number of outdoor images available for Beijing, Shanghai (China) and Phoenix (US). Six image features were extracted from the images, which were used, together with other relevant data, such as the position of the sun, date, time, geographic information and weather conditions, to predict PM2.5 index. The results demonstrate that the image analysis method provides good prediction of PM2.5 indexes, and different features have different significance levels in the prediction. PMID:26828757

  13. Particle Pollution Estimation Based on Image Analysis.

    PubMed

    Liu, Chenbin; Tsow, Francis; Zou, Yi; Tao, Nongjian

    2016-01-01

    Exposure to fine particles can cause various diseases, and an easily accessible method to monitor the particles can help raise public awareness and reduce harmful exposures. Here we report a method to estimate PM air pollution based on analysis of a large number of outdoor images available for Beijing, Shanghai (China) and Phoenix (US). Six image features were extracted from the images, which were used, together with other relevant data, such as the position of the sun, date, time, geographic information and weather conditions, to predict PM2.5 index. The results demonstrate that the image analysis method provides good prediction of PM2.5 indexes, and different features have different significance levels in the prediction.

  14. Lakewide estimates of alewife biomass and Chinook salmon abundance and consumption in Lake Ontario, 1989–2005: implications for prey fish sustainability

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Murry, Brent A.; Connerton, Michael J.; O'Gorman, Robert; Stewart, Donald J.; Ringlerd, Neil H.

    2010-01-01

    Stocking levels of Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha for Lake Ontario have been highly controversial since the early 1990s, largely because of uncertainties about lakewide abundance and rates of prey consumption. Previous estimates have focused on years before 1995; since then, however, the Lake Ontario ecosystem has undergone substantial changes, and there is new evidence of extensive natural recruitment. Presented here are new abundance estimates of Chinook salmon and alewives Alosa pseudoharengus in Lake Ontario and a reevaluation of the potential risk of alewife population collapse. We found that Lake Ontario has been supporting, on average (1989–2005), 1.83 × 106 (range, 1.08 × 106 to 3.24 × 106) Chinook salmon of ages 1–4, amounting to a mean annual biomass of 11.33 × 103 metric tons (range, 5.83 × 103 to 23.04 × 103 metric tons). During the same period (1989–2005), the lake supported an alewife biomass of 173.66 × 103 metric tons (range, 62.37 × 103 to 345.49 × 103 metric tons); Chinook salmon of ages 1–4 consumed, on average, 22% (range, 11–44%) of the alewife biomass annually. Because our estimates probably underestimate total consumption and because Chinook salmon are only one of several salmonine species that depend on alewives, predation pressure on the Lake Ontario alewife population may be high enough to raise concerns about long-term stability of this predator–prey system.

  15. Automatic Identification, Classification, and Abundance Estimation for Metal-Poor Stars in the Galaxy from Objective-Prism Spectroscopy via Artificial Neural Network Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rhee, J.; Beers, T. C.; Irwin, M. J.

    1999-05-01

    The HK prism survey of Beers and collaborators has been extremely successful in the identification of large numbers of metal-deficient stars in the thick disk and halo of the Galaxy. Such stars provide vital clues for unraveling the chemical and dynamical history of the Milky Way, and large spiral galaxies in general. The original selection of candidate metal-poor stars from the HK prism plates was carried out using visual inspection, which introduces a number of (avoidable) biases in the resulting target lists (in particular a tendency to overlook metal-poor stars of low temperature). We are in the process of selecting new candidate metal-poor stars based on automated scans of the HK survey plates with the APM facility in Cambridge. Here we present the results of an artificial neural network analysis of this data, which enables us to objectively select, to classify by color and metallicity class, and to predict the metallicities of stars on the prism plates directly from the extracted spectra. The training set consists of about 370 stars with abundances obtained from previous HK survey follow-up efforts, chosen from some of the 320,000 stars in the ``digital'' HK survey to date (over 1,500,000 stars are expected in the final sample). For first-pass classification, external estimates of the broadband color index, (B-V)_o, and equivalent widths of the CaII H and K lines from the extracted prism spectra are used as input variables to separate the prism spectra into regions of similar (B-V)_o and [Fe/H]. Currently, a correct classification rate is achieved for more than 70% of the stars. In the prediction step, these same quantities are used as input variables to predict stellar [Fe/H]. We presently obtain correlation coefficients between the predicted and known [Fe/H] for stars in our test sample of greater than 0.75, with an rms error of 0.1 dex, which is extremely encouraging. We discuss steps that are underway to improve on these results, primarily by obtaining

  16. Abundance-based Classifier for the Prediction of Mass Spectrometric Peptide Detectability Upon Enrichment (PPA)*

    PubMed Central

    Muntel, Jan; Boswell, Sarah A.; Tang, Shaojun; Ahmed, Saima; Wapinski, Ilan; Foley, Greg; Steen, Hanno; Springer, Michael

    2015-01-01

    The function of a large percentage of proteins is modulated by post-translational modifications (PTMs). Currently, mass spectrometry (MS) is the only proteome-wide technology that can identify PTMs. Unfortunately, the inability to detect a PTM by MS is not proof that the modification is not present. The detectability of peptides varies significantly making MS potentially blind to a large fraction of peptides. Learning from published algorithms that generally focus on predicting the most detectable peptides we developed a tool that incorporates protein abundance into the peptide prediction algorithm with the aim to determine the detectability of every peptide within a protein. We tested our tool, “Peptide Prediction with Abundance” (PPA), on in-house acquired as well as published data sets from other groups acquired on different instrument platforms. Incorporation of protein abundance into the prediction allows us to assess not only the detectability of all peptides but also whether a peptide of interest is likely to become detectable upon enrichment. We validated the ability of our tool to predict changes in protein detectability with a dilution series of 31 purified proteins at several different concentrations. PPA predicted the concentration dependent peptide detectability in 78% of the cases correctly, demonstrating its utility for predicting the protein enrichment needed to observe a peptide of interest in targeted experiments. This is especially important in the analysis of PTMs. PPA is available as a web-based or executable package that can work with generally applicable defaults or retrained from a pilot MS data set. PMID:25473088

  17. MetaGaAP: A Novel Pipeline to Estimate Community Composition and Abundance from Non-Model Sequence Data

    PubMed Central

    Noune, Christopher; Hauxwell, Caroline

    2017-01-01

    Next generation sequencing and bioinformatic approaches are increasingly used to quantify microorganisms within populations by analysis of ‘meta-barcode’ data. This approach relies on comparison of amplicon sequences of ‘barcode’ regions from a population with public-domain databases of reference sequences. However, for many organisms relevant ‘barcode’ regions may not have been identified and large databases of reference sequences may not be available. A workflow and software pipeline, ‘MetaGaAP,’ was developed to identify and quantify genotypes through four steps: shotgun sequencing and identification of polymorphisms in a metapopulation to identify custom ‘barcode’ regions of less than 30 polymorphisms within the span of a single ‘read’, amplification and sequencing of the ‘barcode’, generation of a custom database of polymorphisms, and quantitation of the relative abundance of genotypes. The pipeline and workflow were validated in a ‘wild type’ Alphabaculovirus isolate, Helicoverpa armigera single nucleopolyhedrovirus (HaSNPV-AC53) and a tissue-culture derived strain (HaSNPV-AC53-T2). The approach was validated by comparison of polymorphisms in amplicons and shotgun data, and by comparison of predicted dominant and co-dominant genotypes with Sanger sequences. The computational power required to generate and search the database effectively limits the number of polymorphisms that can be included in a barcode to 30 or less. The approach can be used in quantitative analysis of the ecology and pathology of non-model organisms. PMID:28218638

  18. Time Difference of Arrival (TDOA) Estimation Using Wavelet Based Denoising

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1999-03-01

    NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL Monterey, California THESIS TIME DIFFERENCE OF ARRIVAL (TDOA) ESTIMATION USING WAVELET BASED DENOISING by Unal Aktas...4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE TIME DIFFERENCE OF ARRIVAL (TDOA) ESTIMATION USING WAVELET BASED DENOISING 6. AUTHOR(S) Unal Aktas 7...difference of arrival (TDOA) method. The wavelet transform is used to increase the accuracy of TDOA estimation. Several denoising techniques based on

  19. Estimates of abundance of the short-baseline (1-3 meters) slopes for different Venusian terrains using terrestrial analogues

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ivanov, M. A.; Zasova, L. V.; Zeleny, L. M.; Gerasimov, M. V.; Ignatiev, N. I.; Korablev, O. I.; Marov, M. Ya.

    2017-03-01

    The interplanetary mission, Venera-D, which is currently being planned, includes a lander. For a successful landing, it is necessary to estimate the frequency distributions of slopes of the Venusian surface at baselines that are comparable with the horizontal dimensions of lander (1-3 m). The available data on the topographic variations on Venus preclude estimates of the frequency of the short-wavelength slopes. In our study, we applied high-resolution digital terrain models (DTM) for specific areas in Iceland to estimate the slopes on Venus. The Iceland DTMs have 0.5 m spatial and 0.1 m vertical resolution. From the set of these DTMs, we have selected those that morphologically resemble typical landscapes on Venus such as tessera, shield, regional, lobate, and smooth plains. The mode of the frequency distribution of slopes on the model tessera terrain is within a 30°-40° range and a fraction of the surface has slopes <7°, which is considered as the upper safety limit. This is the primary interest. The frequency distribution of slopes on the model tessera is not changed significantly as the baseline is changed from 1 m to 3 m. The terrestrial surfaces that model shield and regional plains on Venus have a prominent slope distribution mode between 8°-20° and the fraction of the surfaces with slopes <7° is less than 30% on both 1 m and 3 m baselines. A narrow, left-shifted histogram characterizes the model smooth plains surfaces. The fraction of surfaces with slopes <7° is about 65-75% for the shorter baseline (1 m). At the longer baseline, the fraction of the shallow-sloped surfaces is increased and fraction of the steep slopes is decreased significantly. The fraction of surfaces with slopes <7° for the 3-m baseline is about 75-88% for the terrains that model both lobate and smooth plains.

  20. Estimation of phenotypic variability in symbiotic nitrogen fixation ability of common bean under drought stress using (15)N natural abundance in grain.

    PubMed

    Polania, Jose; Poschenrieder, Charlotte; Rao, Idupulapati; Beebe, Stephen

    2016-09-01

    Common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) is the most important food legume, cultivated by small farmers and is usually exposed to unfavorable conditions with minimum use of inputs. Drought and low soil fertility, especially phosphorus and nitrogen (N) deficiencies, are major limitations to bean yield in smallholder systems. Beans can derive part of their required N from the atmosphere through symbiotic nitrogen fixation (SNF). Drought stress severely limits SNF ability of plants. The main objectives of this study were to: (i) test and validate the use of (15)N natural abundance in grain to quantify phenotypic differences in SNF ability for its implementation in breeding programs of common bean with bush growth habit aiming to improve SNF, and (ii) quantify phenotypic differences in SNF under drought to identify superior genotypes that could serve as parents. Field studies were conducted at CIAT-Palmira, Colombia using a set of 36 bean genotypes belonging to the Middle American gene pool for evaluation in two seasons with two levels of water supply (irrigated and drought stress). We used (15)N natural abundance method to compare SNF ability estimated from shoot tissue sampled at mid-pod filling growth stage vs. grain tissue sampled at harvest. Our results showed positive and significant correlation between nitrogen derived from the atmosphere (%Ndfa) estimated using shoot tissue at mid-pod filling and %Ndfa estimated using grain tissue at harvest. Both methods showed phenotypic variability in SNF ability under both drought and irrigated conditions and a significant reduction in SNF ability was observed under drought stress. We suggest that the method of estimating Ndfa using grain tissue (Ndfa-G) could be applied in bean breeding programs to improve SNF ability. Using this method of Ndfa-G, we identified four bean lines (RCB 593, SEA 15, NCB 226 and BFS 29) that combine greater SNF ability with greater grain yield under drought stress and these could serve as potential

  1. ESTIMATION OF THE NEON/OXYGEN ABUNDANCE RATIO AT THE HELIOSPHERIC TERMINATION SHOCK AND IN THE LOCAL INTERSTELLAR MEDIUM FROM IBEX OBSERVATIONS

    SciTech Connect

    Bochsler, P.; Petersen, L.; Moebius, E.; Schwadron, N. A.; Wurz, P.; Scheer, J. A.; Fuselier, S. A.; McComas, D. J.; Bzowski, M.; Frisch, P. C.

    2012-02-01

    We report the first direct measurement of the Ne/O abundance ratio of the interstellar neutral gas flowing into the inner heliosphere. From the first year of Interstellar Boundary Explorer IBEX data collected in spring 2009, we derive the fluxes of interstellar neutral oxygen and neon. Using the flux ratio at the location of IBEX at 1 AU at the time of the observations, and using the ionization rates of neon and oxygen prevailing in the heliosphere during the period of solar minimum, we estimate the neon/oxygen ratios at the heliospheric termination shock and in the gas phase of the inflowing local interstellar medium. Our estimate is (Ne/O){sub gas,ISM} = 0.27 {+-} 0.10, which is-within the large given uncertainties-consistent with earlier measurements from pickup ions. Our value is larger than the solar abundance ratio, possibly indicating that a significant fraction of oxygen in the local interstellar medium is hidden in grains and/or ices.

  2. Testing marker-based estimates of heritability in the wild.

    PubMed

    Coltman, David W

    2005-07-01

    Marker-based estimates of heritability are an attractive alternative to pedigree-based methods for estimating quantitative genetic parameters in field studies where it is difficult or impossible to determine relationships and pedigrees. Here I test the ability of the marker-based method to estimate heritability of a suite of traits in a wild population of bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) using marker data from 32 microsatellite loci. I compared marker-based estimates with estimates obtained using a pedigree and the animal model. Marker-based estimates of heritability were imprecise and downwardly biased. The high degree of uncertainty in marker-based estimates suggests that the method may be sufficient to detect the presence of genetic variance for highly heritable traits, but not sufficiently reliable to estimate genetic parameters.

  3. Contour-based object orientation estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alpatov, Boris; Babayan, Pavel

    2016-04-01

    Real-time object orientation estimation is an actual problem of computer vision nowadays. In this paper we propose an approach to estimate an orientation of objects lacking axial symmetry. Proposed algorithm is intended to estimate orientation of a specific known 3D object, so 3D model is required for learning. The proposed orientation estimation algorithm consists of 2 stages: learning and estimation. Learning stage is devoted to the exploring of studied object. Using 3D model we can gather set of training images by capturing 3D model from viewpoints evenly distributed on a sphere. Sphere points distribution is made by the geosphere principle. It minimizes the training image set. Gathered training image set is used for calculating descriptors, which will be used in the estimation stage of the algorithm. The estimation stage is focusing on matching process between an observed image descriptor and the training image descriptors. The experimental research was performed using a set of images of Airbus A380. The proposed orientation estimation algorithm showed good accuracy (mean error value less than 6°) in all case studies. The real-time performance of the algorithm was also demonstrated.

  4. Abundance, Distribution and Estimated Consumption (kg fish) of Piscivorous Birds Along the Yakima River, Washington State; Implications for Fisheries Management, 2002 Annual Report.

    SciTech Connect

    Major, III, Walter; Grassley, James M.; Ryding, Kristen E.

    2003-05-01

    This report is divided into two chapters. The abstract for chapter one is--Understanding of the abundance and spatial and temporal distributions of piscivorous birds and their potential consumption of fish is an increasingly important aspect of fisheries management. During 1999-2002, we determined the abundance and distribution and estimated the maximum consumption (kg biomass) of fish-eating birds along the length of the Yakima River in Washington State. Sixteen different species were observed during the 4-yr study, but only half of those were observed during all years. Abundance and estimated consumption of fish within the upper and middle sections of the river were dominated by common mergansers (Mergus merganser) which are known to breed in those reaches. Common mergansers accounted for 78 to 94% of the estimated total fish take for the upper river or approximately 28,383 {+-} 1,041 kg over the 4 yrs. A greater diversity of avian piscivores occurred in the lower river and potential impacts to fish populations was more evenly distributed among the species. In 1999-2000, great blue herons potentially accounted for 29 and 36% of the fish consumed, whereas in 2001-2002 American white pelicans accounted for 53 and 55%. We estimated that approximately 75,878 {+-} 6,616 kg of fish were consumed by piscivorous birds in the lower sections of the river during the study. Bird assemblages differed spatially along the river with a greater abundance of colonial nesting species within the lower sections of the river, especially during spring and the nesting season. The abundance of avian piscivores and consumption estimates are discussed within the context of salmonid supplementation efforts on the river and juvenile out-migration. The abstract for chapter two is--Consumption of fish by piscivorous birds may be a significant constraint on efforts to enhance salmonid populations within tributaries to the Columbia River in Washington State. During 1999-2002, we determined the

  5. MINACE-filter-based facial pose estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Casasent, David P.; Patnaik, Rohit

    2005-03-01

    A facial pose estimation system is presented that functions with illumination variations present. Pose estimation is a useful first stage in a face recognition system. A separate minimum noise and correlation energy (MINACE) filter is synthesized for each pose. To select the MINACE parameter c for the filter for a pose, a training set of illumination differences of several faces at that pose, and a validation set of other poses (illumination differences of several faces at a few other poses) is used in the automated filter-synthesis step. However, the filter for each pose is a combination of faces at only that pose. The pose estimation system is evaluated using images from the CMU Pose, Illumination and Expression (PIE) database. The classification performance (PC) scores are presented for several pose estimation tests. The pose estimate will be used for a subsequent image transformation of a test face to a reference pose for face identification.

  6. Using GIS Mapping of the Extent of Nearshore Rocky Reefs to Estimate the Abundance and Reproductive Output of Important Fishery Species

    PubMed Central

    Claisse, Jeremy T.; Pondella, Daniel J.; Williams, Jonathan P.; Sadd, James

    2012-01-01

    Kelp Bass (Paralabrax clathratus) and California Sheephead (Semicossyphus pulcher) are economically and ecologically valuable rocky reef fishes in southern California, making them likely indicator species for evaluating resource management actions. Multiple spatial datasets, aerial and satellite photography, underwater observations and expert judgment were used to produce a comprehensive map of nearshore natural rocky reef habitat for the Santa Monica Bay region (California, USA). It was then used to examine the relative contribution of individual reefs to a regional estimate of abundance and reproductive potential of the focal species. For the reefs surveyed for fishes (i.e. 18 out of the 22 in the region, comprising 82% the natural rocky reef habitat <30 m depth, with a total area of 1850 ha), total abundance and annual egg production of California Sheephead were 451 thousand fish (95% CI: 369 to 533 thousand) and 203 billion eggs (95% CI: 135 to 272 billion). For Kelp Bass, estimates were 805 thousand fish (95% CI: 669 to 941thousand) and 512 billion eggs (95% CI: 414 to 610 billion). Size structure and reef area were key factors in reef-specific contributions to the regional egg production. The size structures of both species illustrated impacts from fishing, and results demonstrate the potential that relatively small increases in the proportion of large females on larger reefs could have on regional egg production. For California Sheephead, a substantial proportion of the regional egg production estimate (>30%) was produced from a relatively small proportion of the regional reef area (c. 10%). Natural nearshore rocky reefs make up only 11% of the area in the newly designated MPAs in this region, but results provide some optimism that regional fisheries could benefit through an increase in overall reproductive output, if adequate increases in size structure of targeted species are realized. PMID:22272326

  7. Using GIS mapping of the extent of nearshore rocky reefs to estimate the abundance and reproductive output of important fishery species.

    PubMed

    Claisse, Jeremy T; Pondella, Daniel J; Williams, Jonathan P; Sadd, James

    2012-01-01

    Kelp Bass (Paralabrax clathratus) and California Sheephead (Semicossyphus pulcher) are economically and ecologically valuable rocky reef fishes in southern California, making them likely indicator species for evaluating resource management actions. Multiple spatial datasets, aerial and satellite photography, underwater observations and expert judgment were used to produce a comprehensive map of nearshore natural rocky reef habitat for the Santa Monica Bay region (California, USA). It was then used to examine the relative contribution of individual reefs to a regional estimate of abundance and reproductive potential of the focal species. For the reefs surveyed for fishes (i.e. 18 out of the 22 in the region, comprising 82% the natural rocky reef habitat <30 m depth, with a total area of 1850 ha), total abundance and annual egg production of California Sheephead were 451 thousand fish (95% CI: 369 to 533 thousand) and 203 billion eggs (95% CI: 135 to 272 billion). For Kelp Bass, estimates were 805 thousand fish (95% CI: 669 to 941 thousand) and 512 billion eggs (95% CI: 414 to 610 billion). Size structure and reef area were key factors in reef-specific contributions to the regional egg production. The size structures of both species illustrated impacts from fishing, and results demonstrate the potential that relatively small increases in the proportion of large females on larger reefs could have on regional egg production. For California Sheephead, a substantial proportion of the regional egg production estimate (>30%) was produced from a relatively small proportion of the regional reef area (c. 10%). Natural nearshore rocky reefs make up only 11% of the area in the newly designated MPAs in this region, but results provide some optimism that regional fisheries could benefit through an increase in overall reproductive output, if adequate increases in size structure of targeted species are realized.

  8. Microclimate Data Improve Predictions of Insect Abundance Models Based on Calibrated Spatiotemporal Temperatures

    PubMed Central

    Rebaudo, François; Faye, Emile; Dangles, Olivier

    2016-01-01

    A large body of literature has recently recognized the role of microclimates in controlling the physiology and ecology of species, yet the relevance of fine-scale climatic data for modeling species performance and distribution remains a matter of debate. Using a 6-year monitoring of three potato moth species, major crop pests in the tropical Andes, we asked whether the spatiotemporal resolution of temperature data affect the predictions of models of moth performance and distribution. For this, we used three different climatic data sets: (i) the WorldClim dataset (global dataset), (ii) air temperature recorded using data loggers (weather station dataset), and (iii) air crop canopy temperature (microclimate dataset). We developed a statistical procedure to calibrate all datasets to monthly and yearly variation in temperatures, while keeping both spatial and temporal variances (air monthly temperature at 1 km² for the WorldClim dataset, air hourly temperature for the weather station, and air minute temperature over 250 m radius disks for the microclimate dataset). Then, we computed pest performances based on these three datasets. Results for temperature ranging from 9 to 11°C revealed discrepancies in the simulation outputs in both survival and development rates depending on the spatiotemporal resolution of the temperature dataset. Temperature and simulated pest performances were then combined into multiple linear regression models to compare predicted vs. field data. We used an additional set of study sites to test the ability of the results of our model to be extrapolated over larger scales. Results showed that the model implemented with microclimatic data best predicted observed pest abundances for our study sites, but was less accurate than the global dataset model when performed at larger scales. Our simulations therefore stress the importance to consider different temperature datasets depending on the issue to be solved in order to accurately predict species

  9. Spectrum-based estimators of the bivariate Hurst exponent.

    PubMed

    Kristoufek, Ladislav

    2014-12-01

    We discuss two alternate spectrum-based estimators of the bivariate Hurst exponent in the power-law cross-correlations setting, the cross-periodogram and local X-Whittle estimators, as generalizations of their univariate counterparts. As the spectrum-based estimators are dependent on a part of the spectrum taken into consideration during estimation, a simulation study showing performance of the estimators under varying bandwidth parameter as well as correlation between processes and their specification is provided as well. These estimators are less biased than the already existent averaged periodogram estimator, which, however, has slightly lower variance. The spectrum-based estimators can serve as a good complement to the popular time domain estimators.

  10. Spectrum-based estimators of the bivariate Hurst exponent

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kristoufek, Ladislav

    2014-12-01

    We discuss two alternate spectrum-based estimators of the bivariate Hurst exponent in the power-law cross-correlations setting, the cross-periodogram and local X -Whittle estimators, as generalizations of their univariate counterparts. As the spectrum-based estimators are dependent on a part of the spectrum taken into consideration during estimation, a simulation study showing performance of the estimators under varying bandwidth parameter as well as correlation between processes and their specification is provided as well. These estimators are less biased than the already existent averaged periodogram estimator, which, however, has slightly lower variance. The spectrum-based estimators can serve as a good complement to the popular time domain estimators.

  11. Abundance- and functional-based mechanisms of plant diversity loss with fertilization in the presence and absence of herbivores.

    PubMed

    Yang, Zhongling; Hautier, Yann; Borer, Elizabeth T; Zhang, Chunhui; Du, Guozhen

    2015-09-01

    Nutrient supply and herbivores can regulate plant species composition, biodiversity and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems. Nutrient enrichment frequently increases plant productivity and decreases diversity while herbivores tend to maintain plant diversity in productive systems. However, the mechanisms by which nutrient enrichment and herbivores regulate plant diversity remain unclear. Abundance-based mechanisms propose that fertilization leads to the extinction of rare species due to random loss of individuals of all species. In contrast, functional-based mechanisms propose that species exclusion is based on functional traits which are disadvantageous under fertilized conditions. We tested mechanistic links between fertilization and diversity loss in the presence or absence of consumers using data from a 4-year fertilization and fencing experiment in an alpine meadow. We found that both abundance- and functional-based mechanisms simultaneously affected species loss in the absence of herbivores while only abundance-based mechanisms affected species loss in the presence of herbivores. Our results indicate that an abundance-based mechanism may consistently play a role in the loss of plant diversity with fertilization, and that diversity decline is driven primarily by the loss of rare species regardless of a plant's functional traits and whether or not herbivores are present. Increasing efforts to conserve rare species in the context of ecosystem eutrophication is a central challenge for grazed grassland ecosystems.

  12. From pest data to abundance-based risk maps combining eco-physiological knowledge, weather, and habitat variability.

    PubMed

    Lacasella, Federica; Marta, Silvio; Singh, Aditya; Stack Whitney, Kaitlin; Hamilton, Krista; Townsend, Phil; Kucharik, Christopher J; Meehan, Timothy D; Gratton, Claudio

    2017-03-01

    Noxious species, i.e., crop pest or invasive alien species, are major threats to both natural and managed ecosystems. Invasive pests are of special importance, and knowledge about their distribution and abundance is fundamental to minimize economic losses and prioritize management activities. Occurrence models are a common tool used to identify suitable zones and map priority areas (i.e., risk maps) for noxious species management, although they provide a simplified description of species dynamics (i.e., no indication on species density). An alternative is to use abundance models, but translating abundance data into risk maps is often challenging. Here, we describe a general framework for generating abundance-based risk maps using multi-year pest data. We used an extensive data set of 3968 records collected between 2003 and 2013 in Wisconsin during annual surveys of soybean aphid (SBA), an exotic invasive pest in this region. By using an integrative approach, we modelled SBA responses to weather, seasonal, and habitat variability using generalized additive models (GAMs). Our models showed good to excellent performance in predicting SBA occurrence and abundance (TSS = 0.70, AUC = 0.92; R(2)  = 0.63). We found that temperature, precipitation, and growing degree days were the main drivers of SBA trends. In addition, a significant positive relationship between SBA abundance and the availability of overwintering habitats was observed. Our models showed aphid populations were also sensitive to thresholds associated with high and low temperatures, likely related to physiological tolerances of the insects. Finally, the resulting aphid predictions were integrated using a spatial prioritization algorithm ("Zonation") to produce an abundance-based risk map for the state of Wisconsin that emphasized the spatiotemporal consistency and magnitude of past infestation patterns. This abundance-based risk map can provide information on potential foci of pest outbreaks where

  13. Proposed Method for Estimating Health-Promoting Glucosinolates and Hydrolysis Products in Broccoli (Brassica oleracea var. italica) Using Relative Transcript Abundance.

    PubMed

    Becker, Talon M; Jeffery, Elizabeth H; Juvik, John A

    2017-01-18

    Due to the importance of glucosinolates and their hydrolysis products in human nutrition and plant defense, optimizing the content of these compounds is a frequent breeding objective for Brassica crops. Toward this goal, we investigated the feasibility of using models built from relative transcript abundance data for the prediction of glucosinolate and hydrolysis product concentrations in broccoli. We report that predictive models explaining at least 50% of the variation for a number of glucosinolates and their hydrolysis products can be built for prediction within the same season, but prediction accuracy decreased when using models built from one season's data for prediction of an opposing season. This method of phytochemical profile prediction could potentially allow for lower phytochemical phenotyping costs and larger breeding populations. This, in turn, could improve selection efficiency for phase II induction potential, a type of chemopreventive bioactivity, by allowing for the quick and relatively cheap content estimation of phytochemicals known to influence the trait.

  14. THE SOLAR FLARE IRON ABUNDANCE

    SciTech Connect

    Phillips, K. J. H.; Dennis, B. R. E-mail: Brian.R.Dennis@nasa.gov

    2012-03-20

    The abundance of iron is measured from emission line complexes at 6.65 keV (Fe line) and 8 keV (Fe/Ni line) in RHESSI X-ray spectra during solar flares. Spectra during long-duration flares with steady declines were selected, with an isothermal assumption and improved data analysis methods over previous work. Two spectral fitting models give comparable results, viz., an iron abundance that is lower than previous coronal values but higher than photospheric values. In the preferred method, the estimated Fe abundance is A(Fe) = 7.91 {+-} 0.10 (on a logarithmic scale, with A(H) = 12) or 2.6 {+-} 0.6 times the photospheric Fe abundance. Our estimate is based on a detailed analysis of 1898 spectra taken during 20 flares. No variation from flare to flare is indicated. This argues for a fractionation mechanism similar to quiet-Sun plasma. The new value of A(Fe) has important implications for radiation loss curves, which are estimated.

  15. Web-based Interspecies Correlation Estimation

    EPA Science Inventory

    Web-ICE estimates acute toxicity (LC50/LD50) of a chemical to a species, genus, or family from the known toxicity of the chemical to a surrogate species. Web-ICE has modules to predict acute toxicity to aquatic (fish and invertebrates) and wildlife (birds and mammals) taxa for us...

  16. A Geology-Based Estimate of Connate Water Salinity Distribution

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-09-01

    ERDC/CHL CHETN-XI-3 September 2014 Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. A Geology -Based Estimate of Connate Water Salinity...of this Coastal and Hydraulics Engineering Technical Note (CHETN) is to document a geology -based interpolation method developed to estimate the...TYPE 3. DATES COVERED 00-00-2014 to 00-00-2014 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE A Geology -Based Estimate of Connate Water Salinity Distribution 5a. CONTRACT

  17. Lithium abundances of halo dwarfs based on excitation temperatures. II. Non-local thermodynamic equilibrium

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hosford, A.; García Pérez, A. E.; Collet, R.; Ryan, S. G.; Norris, J. E.; Olive, K. A.

    2010-02-01

    Context. The plateau in the abundance of 7Li in metal-poor stars was initially interpreted as an observational indicator of the primordial lithium abundance. However, this observational value is in disagreement with that deduced from calculations of Big Bang nucleosynthesis (BBN), when using the Wilkinson microwave anisotropy probe (WMAP) baryon density measurements. One of the most important factors in determining the stellar lithium abundance is the effective temperature. In a previous study by the authors, new effective temperatures (Teff) for sixteen metal-poor halo dwarfs were derived using a local thermodynamic equilibrium (LTE) description of the formation of Fe lines. This new Teff scale reinforced the discrepancy. Aims: For six of the stars from our previous study we calculate revised temperatures using a non-local thermodynamic equilibrium (NLTE) approach. These are then used to derive a new mean primordial lithium abundance in an attempt to solve the lithium discrepancy. Methods: Using the code MULTI we calculate NLTE corrections to the LTE abundances for the Fe i lines measured in the six stars, and determine new Teff's. We keep other physical parameters, i.e. log g, [Fe/H] and ξ, constant at the values calculated in Paper I. With the revised Teff scale we derive new Li abundances. We compare the NLTE values of Teff with the photometric temperatures of Ryan et al. (1999, ApJ, 523, 654), the infrared flux method (IRFM) temperatures of Meléndez & Ramírez (2004, ApJ, 615, L33), and the Balmer line wing temperatures of Asplund et al. (2006, ApJ, 644, 229). Results: We find that our temperatures are hotter than both the Ryan et al. and Asplund et al. temperatures by typically ~110-160 K, but are still cooler than the temperatures of Meléndez & Ramírez by typically ~190 K. The temperatures imply a primordial Li abundance of 2.19 dex or 2.21 dex, depending on the magnitude of collisions with hydrogen in the calculations, still well below the value of 2

  18. Statistical approach to meteoroid shape estimation based on recovered meteorites

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vinnikov, V.; Gritsevich, M.; Turchak, L.

    2014-07-01

    Each meteorite sample can provide data on the chemical and physical properties of interplanetary matter. The set of recovered fragments within one meteorite fall can give additional information on the history of its parent asteroid. A reliably estimated meteoroid shape is a valuable input parameter for the atmospheric entry scenario, since the pre-entry mass, terminal meteorite mass, and fireball luminosity are proportional to the pre-entry shape factor of the meteoroid to the power of 3 [1]. We present a statistical approach to the estimation of meteoroid pre-entry shape [2], applied to the detailed data on recovered meteorite fragments. This is a development of our recent study on the fragment mass distribution functions for the Košice meteorite fall [3]. The idea of the shape estimation technique is based on experiments that show that brittle fracturing produces multiple fragments of sizes smaller than or equal to the smallest dimension of the body [2]. Such shattering has fractal properties similar to many other natural phenomena [4]. Thus, this self-similarity for scaling mass sequences can be described by the power law statistical expressions [5]. The finite mass and the number of fragments N are represented via an exponential cutoff for the maximum fragment mass m_U. The undersampling of tiny unrecoverable fragments is handled via an additional constraint on the minimum fragment mass m_L. The complementary cumulative distribution function has the form F( m)={N-j}/{m_j}( {m}/{m_j})^{-β_0}exp( {m-m_j}/{m_U}). The resulting parameters sought (scaling exponent β_0 and mass limits) are computed to fit the empirical fragment mass distribution: S(β_0, j, m_U) = sum_{i=j}^{N}[F(m_i)-{N-j}/{m_j}]^2, m_j = m_L. The scaling exponent correlates with the dimensionless shape parameter d [2]: 0.13d^2-0.21d+1.1-β=0, which, in turn, is expressed via the ratio of the linear dimensions a, b, c of the shattering body [2]: d = 1+2(ab+ac+bc)(a^2+b^2+c^2)^{-1}. We apply the

  19. Uncertainty relation based on unbiased parameter estimations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sun, Liang-Liang; Song, Yong-Shun; Qiao, Cong-Feng; Yu, Sixia; Chen, Zeng-Bing

    2017-02-01

    Heisenberg's uncertainty relation has been extensively studied in spirit of its well-known original form, in which the inaccuracy measures used exhibit some controversial properties and don't conform with quantum metrology, where the measurement precision is well defined in terms of estimation theory. In this paper, we treat the joint measurement of incompatible observables as a parameter estimation problem, i.e., estimating the parameters characterizing the statistics of the incompatible observables. Our crucial observation is that, in a sequential measurement scenario, the bias induced by the first unbiased measurement in the subsequent measurement can be eradicated by the information acquired, allowing one to extract unbiased information of the second measurement of an incompatible observable. In terms of Fisher information we propose a kind of information comparison measure and explore various types of trade-offs between the information gains and measurement precisions, which interpret the uncertainty relation as surplus variance trade-off over individual perfect measurements instead of a constraint on extracting complete information of incompatible observables.

  20. Distributed Damage Estimation for Prognostics based on Structural Model Decomposition

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Daigle, Matthew; Bregon, Anibal; Roychoudhury, Indranil

    2011-01-01

    Model-based prognostics approaches capture system knowledge in the form of physics-based models of components, and how they fail. These methods consist of a damage estimation phase, in which the health state of a component is estimated, and a prediction phase, in which the health state is projected forward in time to determine end of life. However, the damage estimation problem is often multi-dimensional and computationally intensive. We propose a model decomposition approach adapted from the diagnosis community, called possible conflicts, in order to both improve the computational efficiency of damage estimation, and formulate a damage estimation approach that is inherently distributed. Local state estimates are combined into a global state estimate from which prediction is performed. Using a centrifugal pump as a case study, we perform a number of simulation-based experiments to demonstrate the approach.

  1. THE ORIGIN AND EVOLUTION OF THE HALO PN BoBn 1: FROM A VIEWPOINT OF CHEMICAL ABUNDANCES BASED ON MULTIWAVELENGTH SPECTRA

    SciTech Connect

    Otsuka, Masaaki; Tajitsu, Akito; Hyung, Siek; Izumiura, Hideyuki

    2010-11-01

    We have performed a comprehensive chemical abundance analysis of the extremely metal-poor ([Ar/H] < -2) halo planetary nebula (PN) BoBn 1 based on International Ultraviolet Explorer archive data, Subaru/High-Dispersion Spectrograph spectra, VLT/UVES archive data, and Spitzer/IRS spectra. We have detected over 600 lines in total and calculated ionic and elemental abundances of 13 elements using detected optical recombination lines (ORLs) and collisionally excited lines (CELs). The estimations of C, N, O, and Ne abundances from the ORLs and Kr, Xe, and Ba from the CELs are done the first for this nebula, empirically and theoretically. The C, N, O, and Ne abundances from ORLs are systematically larger than those from CELs. The abundance discrepancies apart from O could be explained by a temperature fluctuation model, and that of O might be by a hydrogen-deficient cold component model. We have detected five fluorine and several slow neutron capture elements (the s-process). The amounts of [F/H], [Kr/H], and [Xe/H] suggest that BoBn 1 is the most F-rich among F-detected PNe and is a heavy s-process element rich PN. We have confirmed dust in the nebula that is composed of amorphous carbon and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons with a total mass of 5.8 x 10{sup -6} M{sub sun}. The photoionization models built with non-LTE theoretical stellar atmospheres indicate that the progenitor was a 1-1.5 M{sub sun} star that would evolve into a white dwarf with an {approx}0.62 M{sub sun} core mass and {approx}0.09 M{sub sun} ionized nebula. We have measured a heliocentric radial velocity of +191.6 {+-}1.3 km s{sup -1} and expansion velocity 2V{sub exp} of 40.5 {+-} 3.3 km s{sup -1} from an average over 300 lines. The derived elemental abundances have been reviewed from the standpoint of theoretical nucleosynthesis models. It is likely that the elemental abundances except N could be explained either by a 1.5 M{sub sun} single star model or by a binary model composed of 0.75 M{sub sun

  2. Lithium abundances of halo dwarfs based on excitation temperature. I. Local thermodynamic equilibrium

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hosford, A.; Ryan, S. G.; García Pérez, A. E.; Norris, J. E.; Olive, K. A.

    2009-01-01

    Context: The discovery of the Spite plateau in the abundances of 7Li for metal-poor stars led to the determination of an observationally deduced primordial lithium abundance. However, after the success of the Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP) in determining the baryon density, Ω_Bh2, there was a discrepancy between observationally determined and theoretically determined abundances in the case of 7Li. One of the most important uncertain factors in the calculation of the stellar 7Li abundance is the effective temperature, T_eff. Aims: We use sixteen metal-poor halo dwarfs to calculate new T_eff values using the excitation energy method. With this temperature scale we then calculate new Li abundances for this group of stars in an attempt to resolve the 7Li discrepancy. Methods: Using high signal-to-noise (S/N ≈ 100) spectra of 16 metal-poor halo dwarfs, obtained with the UCLES spectrograph on the AAT, measurements of equivalent widths from a set of unblended Fe I lines are made. These equivalent widths are then used to calculate new T_eff values with the use of the single line radiative transfer program WIDTH6, where we have constrained the gravity using either theoretical isochrones or the Hipparcos parallax, rather than the ionization balance. The lithium abundances of the stars are calculated with these temperatures. Results: The physical parameters are derived for the 16 programme stars, and two standards. These include T_eff, log g, [Fe/H], microturbulence and 7Li abundances. A comparison between the temperature scale of this work and those adopted by others has been undertaken. We find good consistency with the temperatures derived from the Hα line by Asplund et al. (2006, ApJ, 644, 229), but not with the hotter scale of Meléndez & Ramírez (2004, ApJ, 615, L33). We also present results of the investigation into whether any trends between 7Li and metallicity or temperature are present in these metal-poor stars. Appendix A is only available in

  3. Distinctive serum protein profiles involving abundant proteins in lung cancer patients based upon antibody microarray analysis

    PubMed Central

    Gao, Wei-Min; Kuick, Rork; Orchekowski, Randal P; Misek, David E; Qiu, Ji; Greenberg, Alissa K; Rom, William N; Brenner, Dean E; Omenn, Gilbert S; Haab, Brian B; Hanash, Samir M

    2005-01-01

    Background Cancer serum protein profiling by mass spectrometry has uncovered mass profiles that are potentially diagnostic for several common types of cancer. However, direct mass spectrometric profiling has a limited dynamic range and difficulties in providing the identification of the distinctive proteins. We hypothesized that distinctive profiles may result from the differential expression of relatively abundant serum proteins associated with the host response. Methods Eighty-four antibodies, targeting a wide range of serum proteins, were spotted onto nitrocellulose-coated microscope slides. The abundances of the corresponding proteins were measured in 80 serum samples, from 24 newly diagnosed subjects with lung cancer, 24 healthy controls, and 32 subjects with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Two-color rolling-circle amplification was used to measure protein abundance. Results Seven of the 84 antibodies gave a significant difference (p < 0.01) for the lung cancer patients as compared to healthy controls, as well as compared to COPD patients. Proteins that exhibited higher abundances in the lung cancer samples relative to the control samples included C-reactive protein (CRP; a 13.3 fold increase), serum amyloid A (SAA; a 2.0 fold increase), mucin 1 and α-1-antitrypsin (1.4 fold increases). The increased expression levels of CRP and SAA were validated by Western blot analysis. Leave-one-out cross-validation was used to construct Diagonal Linear Discriminant Analysis (DLDA) classifiers. At a cutoff where all 56 of the non-tumor samples were correctly classified, 15/24 lung tumor patient sera were correctly classified. Conclusion Our results suggest that a distinctive serum protein profile involving abundant proteins may be observed in lung cancer patients relative to healthy subjects or patients with chronic disease and may have utility as part of strategies for detecting lung cancer. PMID:16117833

  4. Combining split-beam and dual-frequency identification sonars to estimate abundance of anadromous fishes in the Roanoke River, North Carolina

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hughes, Jacob B.; Hightower, Joseph E.

    2015-01-01

    Riverine hydroacoustic techniques are an effective method for evaluating abundance of upstream migrating anadromous fishes. To use these methods in the Roanoke River, North Carolina, at a wide site with uneven bottom topography, we used a combination of split-beam sonar and dual-frequency identification sonar (DIDSON) deployments. We aimed a split-beam sonar horizontally to monitor midchannel and near-bottom zones continuously over the 3-month spring monitoring periods in 2010 and 2011. The DIDSON was rotated between seven cross-channel locations (using a vertical aim) and nearshore regions (using horizontal aims). Vertical deployment addressed blind spots in split-beam coverage along the bottom and provided reliable information about the cross-channel and vertical distributions of upstream migrants. Using a Bayesian framework, we modeled sonar counts within four cross-channel strata and apportioned counts by species using species proportions from boat electrofishing and gill netting. Modeled estimates (95% credible intervals [CIs]) of total upstream migrants in 2010 and 2011 were 2.5 million (95% CI, 2.4–2.6 million) and 3.6 million (95% CI, 3.4–3.9 million), respectively. Results indicated that upstream migrants are extremely shore- and bottom-oriented, suggesting nearshore DIDSON monitoring improved the accuracy and precision of our estimates. This monitoring protocol and model may be widely applicable to river systems regardless of their cross-sectional width or profile.

  5. Abundance, biomass, vertical migration and estimated development rate of the copepod Calanus finmarchicus in the southern Gulf of Maine during late spring

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Durbin, Edward G.; Gilman, Sharon L.; Campbell, Robert G.; Durbin, Ann G.

    Abundance, biomass, diel vertical migration and estimated in situ development in the copepod Calanus finmarchicus were investigated during late spring in 1988 and 1989 in the southern Gulf of Maine. This region is an important feeding ground for the planktivorous right whale, Eubalaena glacialis. The 1988 study took place during the declining spring bloom, with phytoplankton biomass variable, but relatively high. The 1989 study occurred after seasonal stratification, and phytoplankton biomass was low. During the 1988 cruise the dominant stage in C. finmarchicus shifted from C1-C2 to C4-C5. Stage durations during 1988 (4.0 days for C3 and 6.6 days for C4), estimated from the temporal change in stage distribution, were similar to maximal values observed in the laboratory. In contrast, during 1989 stages C4 and C5 were dominant throughout the study period and development rate was slow (estimated C4 stage duration about 24 days). Diel vertical migration patterns changed, from an absence of migration at the first two 1988 stations where younger stages predominated (C1-C3), to a very strong diel vertical migration at the later 1988 stations where stages C3-C3 predominated. This was not a simple ontogenetic change in migratory behavior since all copepodite stages at each station showed similar patterns. During 1989 dense aggregations of C. finmarchicus remained in the surface layer both day and night, and no diel vertical migration was observed. A small, nonmigratory population of late-stage C. finmarchicus was found at depth. Individual body size of these copepods was considerably greater than those found at the surface. Differences in development rate between years reflect differences in the food environment, brought about by seasonal hydrographic changes and the development of more intense stratification. Diel vertical migration patterns, however, did not show a simple relation with food availability, and it is suggested that predation may play an important role in

  6. Abundance analysis of the supergiant stars HD 80057 and HD 80404 based on their UVES Spectra

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tanrıverdi, T.; Baştürk, Ö.

    2016-08-01

    This study presents elemental abundances of the early A-type supergiant HD 80057 and the late A-type supergiant HD 80404. High resolution and high signal-to-noise ratio spectra published by the UVES Paranal Observatory Project (Bagnulo et al., 2003) were analyzed to compute their elemental abundances using ATLAS9 (Kurucz, 1993; 2005; Sbordone et al., 2004). In our analysis we assumed local thermodynamic equilibrium. The atmospheric parameters of HD 80057 used in this study are from Firnstein and Przybilla (2012), and that of HD 80404 are derived from spectral energy distribution, ionization equilibria of Cr I/II and Fe I/II, the fits to the wings of Balmer and Paschen lines as Teff = 7700 ± 150 K and log g = 1.60 ± 0.15 (in cgs). The microturbulent velocities of HD 80057 and HD 80404 have been determined as 4.3 ± 0.1 and 2.2 ± 0.0 km s^-1, respectively. The rotational velocities are 15 ± 1 and 7 ± 2 km s^-1 and their macroturbulence velocities are 24 ± 2 and 2 ± 1 km s^1. We have given the abundances of 25 ions of 19 elements for HD 80057 and 36 ions of 25 elements for HD 80404. The abundances are close to solar values, except for some elements (Na, Sc, Ti, V, Ba, and Sr). We have found the metallicities [M/H] for HD 80057 and HD 80404 as -0.16 ± 0.24 and -0.04 ± 0.16 dex, respectively. The evolutionary status of these stars are discussed and their nitrogen-to-carbon (N/C) and nitrogen-to-oxygen (N/O) ratios show that they are in their blue supergiant phase before the red supergiant region.

  7. Model-based Small Area Estimates of Cancer Risk Factors and Screening Behaviors - Small Area Estimates

    Cancer.gov

    These model-based estimates use two surveys, the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) and the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS). The two surveys are combined using novel statistical methodology.

  8. Wind field model-based estimation of Seasat scatterometer winds

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Long, David G.

    1993-01-01

    A model-based approach to estimating near-surface wind fields over the ocean from Seasat scatterometer (SASS) measurements is presented. The approach is a direct assimilation technique in which wind field model parameters are estimated directly from the scatterometer measurements of the radar backscatter of the ocean's surface using maximum likelihood principles. The wind field estimate is then computed from the estimated model parameters. The wind field model used in this approach is based on geostrophic approximation and on simplistic assumptions about the wind field vorticity and divergence but includes ageostrophic winds. Nine days of SASS data were processed to obtain unique wind estimates. Comparisons in performance to the traditional two-step (point-wise wind retrieval followed by ambiguity removal) wind estimate method and the model-based method are provided using both simulated radar backscatter measurements and actual SASS measurements. In the latter case the results are compared to wind fields determined using subjective ambiguity removal. While the traditional approach results in missing measurements and reduced effective swath width due to fore/aft beam cell coregistration problems, the model-based approach uses all available measurements to increase the effective swath width and to reduce data gaps. The results reveal that the model-based wind estimates have accuracy comparable to traditionally estimated winds with less 'noise' in the directional estimates, particularly at low wind speeds.

  9. Raft and floating radio frequency identification (RFID) antenna systems for detecting and estimating abundance of PIT-tagged fish in rivers

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fetherman, Eric R.; Avila, Brian W.; Winkelman, Dana L.

    2016-01-01

    Portable radio frequency identification (RFID) PIT tag antenna systems are increasingly being used in studies examining aquatic animal movement, survival, and habitat use, and their design flexibility permits application in a wide variety of settings. We describe the construction, use, and performance of two portable floating RFID PIT tag antenna systems designed to detect fish that were unavailable for recapture using stationary antennas or electrofishing. A raft antenna system was designed to detect and locate PIT-tagged fish in relatively long (i.e., ≥10 km) river reaches, and consisted of two antennas: (1) a horizontal antenna (4 × 1.2 m) installed on the bottom of the raft and used to detect fish in shallower river reaches (<1 m), and (2) a vertical antenna (2.7 × 1.2 m) for detecting fish in deeper pools (≥1 m). Detection distances of the horizontal antenna were between 0.7 and 1.0 m, and detection probability was 0.32 ± 0.02 (mean ± SE) in a field test using rocks marked with 32-mm PIT tags. Detection probability of PIT-tagged fish in the Cache la Poudre River, Colorado, using the raft antenna system, which covered 21% of the wetted area, was 0.14 ± 0.14. A shore-deployed floating antenna (14.6 × 0.6 m), which covered 100% of the wetted area, was designed for use by two operators for detecting and locating PIT-tagged fish in shorter (i.e., <2 km) river reaches. Detection distances of the shore-deployed floating antenna were between 0.7 and 0.8 m, and detection probabilities during field deployment in the St. Vrain River exceeded 0.52. The shore-deployed floating antenna was also used to estimate abundance of PIT-tagged fish. Results suggest that the shore-deployed floating antenna could be used as an alternative to estimating abundance using traditional sampling methods such as electrofishing.

  10. Bovine Host Genetic Variation Influences Rumen Microbial Methane Production with Best Selection Criterion for Low Methane Emitting and Efficiently Feed Converting Hosts Based on Metagenomic Gene Abundance

    PubMed Central

    Roehe, Rainer; Dewhurst, Richard J.; Duthie, Carol-Anne; Rooke, John A.; McKain, Nest; Ross, Dave W.; Hyslop, Jimmy J.; Waterhouse, Anthony; Freeman, Tom C.

    2016-01-01

    Methane produced by methanogenic archaea in ruminants contributes significantly to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The host genetic link controlling microbial methane production is unknown and appropriate genetic selection strategies are not developed. We used sire progeny group differences to estimate the host genetic influence on rumen microbial methane production in a factorial experiment consisting of crossbred breed types and diets. Rumen metagenomic profiling was undertaken to investigate links between microbial genes and methane emissions or feed conversion efficiency. Sire progeny groups differed significantly in their methane emissions measured in respiration chambers. Ranking of the sire progeny groups based on methane emissions or relative archaeal abundance was consistent overall and within diet, suggesting that archaeal abundance in ruminal digesta is under host genetic control and can be used to genetically select animals without measuring methane directly. In the metagenomic analysis of rumen contents, we identified 3970 microbial genes of which 20 and 49 genes were significantly associated with methane emissions and feed conversion efficiency respectively. These explained 81% and 86% of the respective variation and were clustered in distinct functional gene networks. Methanogenesis genes (e.g. mcrA and fmdB) were associated with methane emissions, whilst host-microbiome cross talk genes (e.g. TSTA3 and FucI) were associated with feed conversion efficiency. These results strengthen the idea that the host animal controls its own microbiota to a significant extent and open up the implementation of effective breeding strategies using rumen microbial gene abundance as a predictor for difficult-to-measure traits on a large number of hosts. Generally, the results provide a proof of principle to use the relative abundance of microbial genes in the gastrointestinal tract of different species to predict their influence on traits e.g. human metabolism

  11. Bovine Host Genetic Variation Influences Rumen Microbial Methane Production with Best Selection Criterion for Low Methane Emitting and Efficiently Feed Converting Hosts Based on Metagenomic Gene Abundance.

    PubMed

    Roehe, Rainer; Dewhurst, Richard J; Duthie, Carol-Anne; Rooke, John A; McKain, Nest; Ross, Dave W; Hyslop, Jimmy J; Waterhouse, Anthony; Freeman, Tom C; Watson, Mick; Wallace, R John

    2016-02-01

    Methane produced by methanogenic archaea in ruminants contributes significantly to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The host genetic link controlling microbial methane production is unknown and appropriate genetic selection strategies are not developed. We used sire progeny group differences to estimate the host genetic influence on rumen microbial methane production in a factorial experiment consisting of crossbred breed types and diets. Rumen metagenomic profiling was undertaken to investigate links between microbial genes and methane emissions or feed conversion efficiency. Sire progeny groups differed significantly in their methane emissions measured in respiration chambers. Ranking of the sire progeny groups based on methane emissions or relative archaeal abundance was consistent overall and within diet, suggesting that archaeal abundance in ruminal digesta is under host genetic control and can be used to genetically select animals without measuring methane directly. In the metagenomic analysis of rumen contents, we identified 3970 microbial genes of which 20 and 49 genes were significantly associated with methane emissions and feed conversion efficiency respectively. These explained 81% and 86% of the respective variation and were clustered in distinct functional gene networks. Methanogenesis genes (e.g. mcrA and fmdB) were associated with methane emissions, whilst host-microbiome cross talk genes (e.g. TSTA3 and FucI) were associated with feed conversion efficiency. These results strengthen the idea that the host animal controls its own microbiota to a significant extent and open up the implementation of effective breeding strategies using rumen microbial gene abundance as a predictor for difficult-to-measure traits on a large number of hosts. Generally, the results provide a proof of principle to use the relative abundance of microbial genes in the gastrointestinal tract of different species to predict their influence on traits e.g. human metabolism

  12. Estimating Computer-Based Training Development Times

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1987-10-14

    training facility. Participants were selected based on their willingness to participate without compensation , and the availability of historical data on...willingness to participate without monetary compensation . Selected projects had to have been completed within the last two years. The authors promised to...guidelines unknown Question 20: Is the development effor t being managed by an individual wi th past experience managi ng CBT project s? X RESPONSE 1

  13. Sample Based Unit Liter Dose Estimates

    SciTech Connect

    JENSEN, L.

    2000-04-13

    The Tank Waste Characterization Program has taken many core samples, grab samples, and auger samples from the single-shell and double-shell tanks during the past 10 years. Consequently, the amount of sample data available has increased, both in terms of quantity of sample results and the number of tanks characterized. More and better data is available than when the current radiological and toxicological source terms used in the Basis for Interim Operation (BIO) (FDH 1999a) and the Final Safety Analysis Report (FSAR) (FDH 1999b) were developed. The Nuclear Safety and Licensing (NS and L) organization wants to use the new data to upgrade the radiological and toxicological source terms used in the BIO and FSAR. The NS and L organization requested assistance in producing a statistically based process for developing the source terms. This report describes the statistical techniques used and the assumptions made to support the development of a new radiological source term for liquid and solid wastes stored in single-shell and double-shell tanks. The results given in this report are a revision to similar results given in an earlier version of the document (Jensen and Wilmarth 1999). The main difference between the results in this document and the earlier version is that the dose conversion factors (DCF) for converting {mu}Ci/g or {mu}Ci/L to Sv/L (sieverts per liter) have changed. There are now two DCFs, one based on ICRP-68 and one based on ICW-71 (Brevick 2000).

  14. Influence of observers and stream flow on northern two-lined salamander (Eurycea bislineata bislineata) relative abundance estimates in Acadia and Shenandoah National Parks, USA

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Crocker, J.B.; Bank, M.S.; Loftin, C.S.; Jung Brown, R.E.

    2007-01-01

    We investigated effects of observers and stream flow on Northern Two-Lined Salamander (Eurycea bislineata bislineata) counts in streams in Acadia (ANP) and Shenandoah National Parks (SNP). We counted salamanders in 22 ANP streams during high flow (May to June 2002) and during low flow (July 2002). We also counted salamanders in SNP in nine streams during high flow (summer 2003) and 11 streams during low flow (summers 2001?02, 2004). In 2002, we used a modified cover-controlled active search method with a first and second observer. In succession, observers turned over 100 rocks along five 1-m belt transects across the streambed. The difference between observers in total salamander counts was not significant. We counted fewer E. b. bislineata during high flow conditions, confirming that detection of this species is reduced during high flow periods and that assessment of stream salamander relative abundance is likely more reliable during low or base flow conditions.

  15. Reexamining Sample Size Requirements for Multivariate, Abundance-Based Community Research: When Resources are Limited, the Research Does Not Have to Be

    PubMed Central

    Forcino, Frank L.; Leighton, Lindsey R.; Twerdy, Pamela; Cahill, James F.

    2015-01-01

    Community ecologists commonly perform multivariate techniques (e.g., ordination, cluster analysis) to assess patterns and gradients of taxonomic variation. A critical requirement for a meaningful statistical analysis is accurate information on the taxa found within an ecological sample. However, oversampling (too many individuals counted per sample) also comes at a cost, particularly for ecological systems in which identification and quantification is substantially more resource consuming than the field expedition itself. In such systems, an increasingly larger sample size will eventually result in diminishing returns in improving any pattern or gradient revealed by the data, but will also lead to continually increasing costs. Here, we examine 396 datasets: 44 previously published and 352 created datasets. Using meta-analytic and simulation-based approaches, the research within the present paper seeks (1) to determine minimal sample sizes required to produce robust multivariate statistical results when conducting abundance-based, community ecology research. Furthermore, we seek (2) to determine the dataset parameters (i.e., evenness, number of taxa, number of samples) that require larger sample sizes, regardless of resource availability. We found that in the 44 previously published and the 220 created datasets with randomly chosen abundances, a conservative estimate of a sample size of 58 produced the same multivariate results as all larger sample sizes. However, this minimal number varies as a function of evenness, where increased evenness resulted in increased minimal sample sizes. Sample sizes as small as 58 individuals are sufficient for a broad range of multivariate abundance-based research. In cases when resource availability is the limiting factor for conducting a project (e.g., small university, time to conduct the research project), statistically viable results can still be obtained with less of an investment. PMID:26058066

  16. Reexamining Sample Size Requirements for Multivariate, Abundance-Based Community Research: When Resources are Limited, the Research Does Not Have to Be.

    PubMed

    Forcino, Frank L; Leighton, Lindsey R; Twerdy, Pamela; Cahill, James F

    2015-01-01

    Community ecologists commonly perform multivariate techniques (e.g., ordination, cluster analysis) to assess patterns and gradients of taxonomic variation. A critical requirement for a meaningful statistical analysis is accurate information on the taxa found within an ecological sample. However, oversampling (too many individuals counted per sample) also comes at a cost, particularly for ecological systems in which identification and quantification is substantially more resource consuming than the field expedition itself. In such systems, an increasingly larger sample size will eventually result in diminishing returns in improving any pattern or gradient revealed by the data, but will also lead to continually increasing costs. Here, we examine 396 datasets: 44 previously published and 352 created datasets. Using meta-analytic and simulation-based approaches, the research within the present paper seeks (1) to determine minimal sample sizes required to produce robust multivariate statistical results when conducting abundance-based, community ecology research. Furthermore, we seek (2) to determine the dataset parameters (i.e., evenness, number of taxa, number of samples) that require larger sample sizes, regardless of resource availability. We found that in the 44 previously published and the 220 created datasets with randomly chosen abundances, a conservative estimate of a sample size of 58 produced the same multivariate results as all larger sample sizes. However, this minimal number varies as a function of evenness, where increased evenness resulted in increased minimal sample sizes. Sample sizes as small as 58 individuals are sufficient for a broad range of multivariate abundance-based research. In cases when resource availability is the limiting factor for conducting a project (e.g., small university, time to conduct the research project), statistically viable results can still be obtained with less of an investment.

  17. Highly efficient luminescent solar concentrators based on earth-abundant indirect-bandgap silicon quantum dots

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meinardi, Francesco; Ehrenberg, Samantha; Dhamo, Lorena; Carulli, Francesco; Mauri, Michele; Bruni, Francesco; Simonutti, Roberto; Kortshagen, Uwe; Brovelli, Sergio

    2017-02-01

    Building-integrated photovoltaics is gaining consensus as a renewable energy technology for producing electricity at the point of use. Luminescent solar concentrators (LSCs) could extend architectural integration to the urban environment by realizing electrode-less photovoltaic windows. Crucial for large-area LSCs is the suppression of reabsorption losses, which requires emitters with negligible overlap between their absorption and emission spectra. Here, we demonstrate the use of indirect-bandgap semiconductor nanostructures such as highly emissive silicon quantum dots. Silicon is non-toxic, low-cost and ultra-earth-abundant, which avoids the limitations to the industrial scaling of quantum dots composed of low-abundance elements. Suppressed reabsorption and scattering losses lead to nearly ideal LSCs with an optical efficiency of η = 2.85%, matching state-of-the-art semi-transparent LSCs. Monte Carlo simulations indicate that optimized silicon quantum dot LSCs have a clear path to η > 5% for 1 m2 devices. We are finally able to realize flexible LSCs with performances comparable to those of flat concentrators, which opens the way to a new design freedom for building-integrated photovoltaics elements.

  18. A gene-expression-based neural code for food abundance that modulates lifespan

    PubMed Central

    Entchev, Eugeni V; Patel, Dhaval S; Zhan, Mei; Steele, Andrew J; Lu, Hang; Ch'ng, QueeLim

    2015-01-01

    How the nervous system internally represents environmental food availability is poorly understood. Here, we show that quantitative information about food abundance is encoded by combinatorial neuron-specific gene-expression of conserved TGFβ and serotonin pathway components in Caenorhabditis elegans. Crosstalk and auto-regulation between these pathways alters the shape, dynamic range, and population variance of the gene-expression responses of daf-7 (TGFβ) and tph-1 (tryptophan hydroxylase) to food availability. These intricate regulatory features provide distinct mechanisms for TGFβ and serotonin signaling to tune the accuracy of this multi-neuron code: daf-7 primarily regulates gene-expression variability, while tph-1 primarily regulates the dynamic range of gene-expression responses. This code is functional because daf-7 and tph-1 mutations bidirectionally attenuate food level-dependent changes in lifespan. Our results reveal a neural code for food abundance and demonstrate that gene expression serves as an additional layer of information processing in the nervous system to control long-term physiology. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.06259.001 PMID:25962853

  19. A gene-expression-based neural code for food abundance that modulates lifespan.

    PubMed

    Entchev, Eugeni V; Patel, Dhaval S; Zhan, Mei; Steele, Andrew J; Lu, Hang; Ch'ng, QueeLim

    2015-05-12

    How the nervous system internally represents environmental food availability is poorly understood. Here, we show that quantitative information about food abundance is encoded by combinatorial neuron-specific gene-expression of conserved TGFβ and serotonin pathway components in Caenorhabditis elegans. Crosstalk and auto-regulation between these pathways alters the shape, dynamic range, and population variance of the gene-expression responses of daf-7 (TGFβ) and tph-1 (tryptophan hydroxylase) to food availability. These intricate regulatory features provide distinct mechanisms for TGFβ and serotonin signaling to tune the accuracy of this multi-neuron code: daf-7 primarily regulates gene-expression variability, while tph-1 primarily regulates the dynamic range of gene-expression responses. This code is functional because daf-7 and tph-1 mutations bidirectionally attenuate food level-dependent changes in lifespan. Our results reveal a neural code for food abundance and demonstrate that gene expression serves as an additional layer of information processing in the nervous system to control long-term physiology.

  20. Vision-based range estimation using helicopter flight data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, Phillip N.; Sridhar, Banavar; Hussien, Bassam

    1992-01-01

    Pilot aiding during low-altitude flight depends on the ability to detect and locate obstacles near the helicopter's intended flightpath. Computer-vision-based methods provide one general approach for obstacle detection and range estimation. Several algorithms have been developed for this purpose, but have not been tested with actual flight data. This paper presents results obtained using helicopter flight data with a feature-based range estimation algorithm. A method for recursively estimating range using a Kalman filter with a monocular sequence of images and knowledge of the camera's motion is described. The helicopter flight experiment and four resulting datasets are discussed. Finally the performance of the range estimation algorithm is explored in detail based on comparison of the range estimates with true range measurements collected during the flight experiment.

  1. Vision-based range estimation using helicopter flight data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, Phillip N.; Sridhar, Banavar; Hussein, Bassam

    1992-01-01

    Pilot aiding during low-altitude flight depends on the ability to detect and locate obstacles near the helicopter's intended flightpath. Computer-vision-based methods provide one general approach for obstacle detection and range estimation. Several algorithms have been developed for this purpose, but have not been tested with actual flight data. This paper presents results obtained using helicopter flight data with a feature-based range estimation algorithm. A method for recursively estimating range using a Kalman filter with a monocular sequence of images and knowledge of the camera's motion is described. The helicopter flight experiment and one of four resulting datasets is briefly discussed. Finally the performance of the range estimation algorithm is explored based on comparison of the range estimates with true range measurements collected during the flight experiment.

  2. Localized Dictionaries Based Orientation Field Estimation for Latent Fingerprints.

    PubMed

    Xiao Yang; Jianjiang Feng; Jie Zhou

    2014-05-01

    Dictionary based orientation field estimation approach has shown promising performance for latent fingerprints. In this paper, we seek to exploit stronger prior knowledge of fingerprints in order to further improve the performance. Realizing that ridge orientations at different locations of fingerprints have different characteristics, we propose a localized dictionaries-based orientation field estimation algorithm, in which noisy orientation patch at a location output by a local estimation approach is replaced by real orientation patch in the local dictionary at the same location. The precondition of applying localized dictionaries is that the pose of the latent fingerprint needs to be estimated. We propose a Hough transform-based fingerprint pose estimation algorithm, in which the predictions about fingerprint pose made by all orientation patches in the latent fingerprint are accumulated. Experimental results on challenging latent fingerprint datasets show the proposed method outperforms previous ones markedly.

  3. SFM signal parameter estimation based on an enhanced DSFMT algorithm

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Lei; Li, Xingguang; Chen, Dianren

    2017-01-01

    It is proposed a SFM signal parameter estimation method based on the Enhanced DSFMT(EDSFMT) algorithm and provided the derivation of transformation formulas in this paper .Analysis and simulations were performed, which proved its capability of arbitrary multi-component SFM signal parameter estimation.

  4. Earth Abundant Fe/Mn-Based Layered Oxide Interconnected Nanowires for Advanced K-Ion Full Batteries.

    PubMed

    Wang, Xuanpeng; Xu, Xiaoming; Niu, Chaojiang; Meng, Jiashen; Huang, Meng; Liu, Xiong; Liu, Ziang; Mai, Liqiang

    2017-01-11

    K-ion battery (KIB) is a new-type energy storage device that possesses potential advantages of low-cost and abundant resource of K precursor materials. However, the main challenge lies on the lack of stable materials to accommodate the intercalation of large-size K-ions. Here we designed and constructed a novel earth abundant Fe/Mn-based layered oxide interconnected nanowires as a cathode in KIBs for the first time, which exhibits both high capacity and good cycling stability. On the basis of advanced in situ X-ray diffraction analysis and electrochemical characterization, we confirm that interconnected K0.7Fe0.5Mn0.5O2 nanowires can provide stable framework structure, fast K-ion diffusion channels, and three-dimensional electron transport network during the depotassiation/potassiation processes. As a result, a considerable initial discharge capacity of 178 mAh g(-1) is achieved when measured for KIBs. Besides, K-ion full batteries based on interconnected K0.7Fe0.5Mn0.5O2 nanowires/soft carbon are assembled, manifesting over 250 cycles with a capacity retention of ∼76%. This work may open up the investigation of high-performance K-ion intercalated earth abundant layered cathodes and will push the development of energy storage systems.

  5. Foot gait time series estimation based on support vector machine.

    PubMed

    Pant, Jeevan K; Krishnan, Sridhar

    2014-01-01

    A new algorithm for the estimation of stride interval time series from foot gait signals is proposed. The algorithm is based on the detection of beginning of heel strikes in the signal by using the support vector machine. Morphological operations are used to enhance the accuracy of detection. By taking backward differences of the detected beginning of heel strikes, stride interval time series is estimated. Simulation results are presented which shows that the proposed algorithm yields fairly accurate estimation of stride interval time series where estimation error for mean and standard deviation of the time series is of the order of 10(-4).

  6. Frequency Estimator Performance for a Software-Based Beacon Receiver

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zemba, Michael J.; Morse, Jacquelynne R.; Nessel, James A.

    2014-01-01

    As propagation terminals have evolved, their design has trended more toward a software-based approach that facilitates convenient adjustment and customization of the receiver algorithms. One potential improvement is the implementation of a frequency estimation algorithm, through which the primary frequency component of the received signal can be estimated with a much greater resolution than with a simple peak search of the FFT spectrum. To select an estimator for usage in a Q/V-band beacon receiver, analysis of six frequency estimators was conducted to characterize their effectiveness as they relate to beacon receiver design.

  7. Frequency Estimator Performance for a Software-Based Beacon Receiver

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zemba, Michael J.; Morse, Jacquelynne Rose; Nessel, James A.; Miranda, Felix

    2014-01-01

    As propagation terminals have evolved, their design has trended more toward a software-based approach that facilitates convenient adjustment and customization of the receiver algorithms. One potential improvement is the implementation of a frequency estimation algorithm, through which the primary frequency component of the received signal can be estimated with a much greater resolution than with a simple peak search of the FFT spectrum. To select an estimator for usage in a QV-band beacon receiver, analysis of six frequency estimators was conducted to characterize their effectiveness as they relate to beacon receiver design.

  8. Vision-based recursive estimation of rotorcraft obstacle locations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Leblanc, D. J.; Mcclamroch, N. H.

    1992-01-01

    The authors address vision-based passive ranging during nap-of-the-earth (NOE) rotorcraft flight. They consider the problem of estimating the relative location of identifiable features on nearby obstacles, assuming a sequence of noisy camera images and imperfect measurements of the camera's translation and rotation. An iterated extended Kalman filter is used to provide recursive range estimation. The correspondence problem is simplified by predicting and tracking each feature's image within the Kalman filter framework. Simulation results are presented which show convergent estimates and generally successful feature point tracking. Estimation performance degrades for features near the optical axis and for accelerating motions. Image tracking is also sensitive to angular rate.

  9. Prediction of novel, Earth abundant Cu2O based alloys for PV applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stevanovic, Vladan; Lany, Stephan

    2014-03-01

    Tuning the opto-electronic properties of semiconductors through alloying is essential for semiconductor industry. Currently, mostly isovalent and isostructural alloys are used (e.g. Si/Ge, GaN/InN or CdTe/ZnTe), but a vast and unexplored space of novel functional materials is conceivable when considering more complex alloys by mixing aliovalent and heterostructural constituents. The real challenge lies in the quantitative property prediction for such complex alloys to guide their experimental exploration. In our work we demonstrate how an Earth abundant p-type oxide Cu2O, can be engineered through alloying into a technologically useful absorber material. We use non-local external potentials (NLEP) fitted to GW calculations for correcting the DFT electronic structure and compute absorption coefficient of different alloy compositions and configurations. Work supported by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Next Generation Photovoltaics II (SunShot initiative).

  10. MetaBAT: Metagenome Binning based on Abundance and Tetranucleotide frequence

    SciTech Connect

    Kang, Dongwan; Froula, Jeff; Egan, Rob; Wang, Zhong

    2014-03-21

    Grouping large fragments assembled from shotgun metagenomic sequences to deconvolute complex microbial communities, or metagenome binning, enables the study of individual organisms and their interactions. Here we developed automated metagenome binning software, called MetaBAT, which integrates empirical probabilistic distances of genome abundance and tetranucleotide frequency. On synthetic datasets MetaBAT on average achieves 98percent precision and 90percent recall at the strain level with 281 near complete unique genomes. Applying MetaBAT to a human gut microbiome data set we recovered 176 genome bins with 92percent precision and 80percent recall. Further analyses suggest MetaBAT is able to recover genome fragments missed in reference genomes up to 19percent, while 53 genome bins are novel. In summary, we believe MetaBAT is a powerful tool to facilitate comprehensive understanding of complex microbial communities.

  11. Optical Flow-Based State Estimation for Guided Projectiles

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2015-06-01

    ARL-TR-7321 ● JUNE 2015 US Army Research Laboratory Optical Flow-Based State Estimation for Guided Projectiles by Moshe... Guided Projectiles by Moshe Hamaoui Weapons and Materials Research Directorate, ARL Approved for public release...

  12. Estimator Based Controller for High Speed Flywheel Magnetic Bearing System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dever, Timothy P.; Brown, Gerald V.; Jansen, Ralph H.

    2002-01-01

    A flywheel system and its operator interface are described. Measurements of magnetic bearing negative stiffness are performed. Two digital magnetic bearing control algorithms (PD and estimator based) are defined and their implementations are described. Tuning of each controller is discussed. Comparison of the two controllers' stability, damping noise, and operating current are described. Results describing the superiority of the estimator-based controller are presented and discussed.

  13. Estimation of the entropy based on its polynomial representation.

    PubMed

    Vinck, Martin; Battaglia, Francesco P; Balakirsky, Vladimir B; Vinck, A J Han; Pennartz, Cyriel M A

    2012-05-01

    Estimating entropy from empirical samples of finite size is of central importance for information theory as well as the analysis of complex statistical systems. Yet, this delicate task is marred by intrinsic statistical bias. Here we decompose the entropy function into a polynomial approximation function and a remainder function. The approximation function is based on a Taylor expansion of the logarithm. Given n observations, we give an unbiased, linear estimate of the first n power series terms based on counting sets of k coincidences. For the remainder function we use nonlinear Bayesian estimation with a nearly flat prior distribution on the entropy that was developed by Nemenman, Shafee, and Bialek. Our simulations show that the combined entropy estimator has reduced bias in comparison to other available estimators.

  14. Estimation of the entropy based on its polynomial representation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vinck, Martin; Battaglia, Francesco P.; Balakirsky, Vladimir B.; Vinck, A. J. Han; Pennartz, Cyriel M. A.

    2012-05-01

    Estimating entropy from empirical samples of finite size is of central importance for information theory as well as the analysis of complex statistical systems. Yet, this delicate task is marred by intrinsic statistical bias. Here we decompose the entropy function into a polynomial approximation function and a remainder function. The approximation function is based on a Taylor expansion of the logarithm. Given n observations, we give an unbiased, linear estimate of the first n power series terms based on counting sets of k coincidences. For the remainder function we use nonlinear Bayesian estimation with a nearly flat prior distribution on the entropy that was developed by Nemenman, Shafee, and Bialek. Our simulations show that the combined entropy estimator has reduced bias in comparison to other available estimators.

  15. A Laplacian-based MMSE estimator for speech enhancement

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Bin; Loizou, Philipos C.

    2007-01-01

    This paper focuses on optimal estimators of the magnitude spectrum for speech enhancement. We present an analytical solution for estimating in the MMSE sense the magnitude spectrum when the clean speech DFT coefficients are modeled by a Laplacian distribution and the noise DFT coefficients are modeled by a Gaussian distribution. Furthermore, we derive the MMSE estimator under speech presence uncertainty and a Laplacian statistical model. Results indicated that the Laplacian-based MMSE estimator yielded less residual noise in the enhanced speech than the traditional Gaussian-based MMSE estimator. Overall, the present study demonstrates that the assumed distribution of the DFT coefficients can have a significant effect on the quality of the enhanced speech. PMID:18037977

  16. Can Nonexperimental Estimates Replicate Estimates Based on Random Assignment in Evaluations of School Choice? A Within-Study Comparison

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bifulco, Robert

    2012-01-01

    The ability of nonexperimental estimators to match impact estimates derived from random assignment is examined using data from the evaluation of two interdistrict magnet schools. As in previous within-study comparisons, nonexperimental estimates differ from estimates based on random assignment when nonexperimental estimators are implemented…

  17. Process-based Cost Estimation for Ramjet/Scramjet Engines

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Singh, Brijendra; Torres, Felix; Nesman, Miles; Reynolds, John

    2003-01-01

    Process-based cost estimation plays a key role in effecting cultural change that integrates distributed science, technology and engineering teams to rapidly create innovative and affordable products. Working together, NASA Glenn Research Center and Boeing Canoga Park have developed a methodology of process-based cost estimation bridging the methodologies of high-level parametric models and detailed bottoms-up estimation. The NASA GRC/Boeing CP process-based cost model provides a probabilistic structure of layered cost drivers. High-level inputs characterize mission requirements, system performance, and relevant economic factors. Design alternatives are extracted from a standard, product-specific work breakdown structure to pre-load lower-level cost driver inputs and generate the cost-risk analysis. As product design progresses and matures the lower level more detailed cost drivers can be re-accessed and the projected variation of input values narrowed, thereby generating a progressively more accurate estimate of cost-risk. Incorporated into the process-based cost model are techniques for decision analysis, specifically, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and functional utility analysis. Design alternatives may then be evaluated not just on cost-risk, but also user defined performance and schedule criteria. This implementation of full-trade study support contributes significantly to the realization of the integrated development environment. The process-based cost estimation model generates development and manufacturing cost estimates. The development team plans to expand the manufacturing process base from approximately 80 manufacturing processes to over 250 processes. Operation and support cost modeling is also envisioned. Process-based estimation considers the materials, resources, and processes in establishing cost-risk and rather depending on weight as an input, actually estimates weight along with cost and schedule.

  18. Hierarchical models of animal abundance and occurrence

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Royle, J. Andrew; Dorazio, R.M.

    2006-01-01

    Much of animal ecology is devoted to studies of abundance and occurrence of species, based on surveys of spatially referenced sample units. These surveys frequently yield sparse counts that are contaminated by imperfect detection, making direct inference about abundance or occurrence based on observational data infeasible. This article describes a flexible hierarchical modeling framework for estimation and inference about animal abundance and occurrence from survey data that are subject to imperfect detection. Within this framework, we specify models of abundance and detectability of animals at the level of the local populations defined by the sample units. Information at the level of the local population is aggregated by specifying models that describe variation in abundance and detection among sites. We describe likelihood-based and Bayesian methods for estimation and inference under the resulting hierarchical model. We provide two examples of the application of hierarchical models to animal survey data, the first based on removal counts of stream fish and the second based on avian quadrat counts. For both examples, we provide a Bayesian analysis of the models using the software WinBUGS.

  19. Modeling abundance effects in distance sampling

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Royle, J. Andrew; Dawson, D.K.; Bates, S.

    2004-01-01

    Distance-sampling methods are commonly used in studies of animal populations to estimate population density. A common objective of such studies is to evaluate the relationship between abundance or density and covariates that describe animal habitat or other environmental influences. However, little attention has been focused on methods of modeling abundance covariate effects in conventional distance-sampling models. In this paper we propose a distance-sampling model that accommodates covariate effects on abundance. The model is based on specification of the distance-sampling likelihood at the level of the sample unit in terms of local abundance (for each sampling unit). This model is augmented with a Poisson regression model for local abundance that is parameterized in terms of available covariates. Maximum-likelihood estimation of detection and density parameters is based on the integrated likelihood, wherein local abundance is removed from the likelihood by integration. We provide an example using avian point-transect data of Ovenbirds (Seiurus aurocapillus) collected using a distance-sampling protocol and two measures of habitat structure (understory cover and basal area of overstory trees). The model yields a sensible description (positive effect of understory cover, negative effect on basal area) of the relationship between habitat and Ovenbird density that can be used to evaluate the effects of habitat management on Ovenbird populations.

  20. Natural Abundance 17O Nuclear Magnetic Resonance and Computational Modeling Studies of Lithium Based Liquid Electrolytes

    SciTech Connect

    Deng, Xuchu; Hu, Mary Y.; Wei, Xiaoliang; Wang, Wei; Chen, Zhong; Liu, Jun; Hu, Jian Z.

    2015-07-01

    Natural abundance 17O NMR measurements were conducted on electrolyte solutions consisting of Li[CF3SO2NSO2CF3] (LiTFSI) dissolved in the solvents of ethylene carbonate (EC), propylene carbonate (PC), ethyl methyl carbonate (EMC), and their mixtures at various concentrations. It was observed that 17O chemical shifts of solvent molecules change with the concentration of LiTFSI. The chemical shift displacements of carbonyl oxygen are evidently greater than those of ethereal oxygen, strongly indicating that Li+ ion is coordinated with carbonyl oxygen rather than ethereal oxygen. To understand the detailed molecular interaction, computational modeling of 17O chemical shifts was carried out on proposed solvation structures. By comparing the predicted chemical shifts with the experimental values, it is found that a Li+ ion is coordinated with four double bond oxygen atoms from EC, PC, EMC and TFSI- anion. In the case of excessive amount of solvents of EC, PC and EMC the Li+ coordinated solvent molecules are undergoing quick exchange with bulk solvent molecules, resulting in average 17O chemical shifts. Several kinds of solvation structures are identified, where the proportion of each structure in the liquid electrolytes investigated depends on the concentration of LiTFSI.

  1. Natural abundance 17O nuclear magnetic resonance and computational modeling studies of lithium based liquid electrolytes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deng, Xuchu; Hu, Mary Y.; Wei, Xiaoliang; Wang, Wei; Chen, Zhong; Liu, Jun; Hu, Jian Zhi

    2015-07-01

    Natural abundance 17O NMR measurements were conducted on electrolyte solutions consisting of Li[CF3SO2NSO2CF3] (LiTFSI) dissolved in the solvents of ethylene carbonate (EC), propylene carbonate (PC), ethyl methyl carbonate (EMC), and their mixtures at various concentrations. It was observed that 17O chemical shifts of solvent molecules change with the concentration of LiTFSI. The chemical shift displacements of carbonyl oxygen are evidently greater than those of ethereal oxygen, strongly indicating that Li+ ion is coordinated with carbonyl oxygen rather than ethereal oxygen. To understand the detailed molecular interaction, computational modeling of 17O chemical shifts was carried out on proposed solvation structures. By comparing the predicted chemical shifts with the experimental values, it is found that a Li+ ion is coordinated with four double bond oxygen atoms from EC, PC, EMC and TFSI- anion. In the case of excessive amount of solvents of EC, PC and EMC the Li+ coordinated solvent molecules are undergoing quick exchange with bulk solvent molecules, resulting in average 17O chemical shifts. Several kinds of solvation structures are identified, where the proportion of each structure in the liquid electrolytes investigated depends on the concentration of LiTFSI.

  2. [Soil moisture estimation model based on multiple vegetation index].

    PubMed

    Wu, Hai-long; Yu, Xin-xiao; Zhang, Zhen-ming; Zhang, Yan

    2014-06-01

    Estimating soil moisture conveniently and exactly is a hot issues in water resource monitoring among agriculture and forestry. Estimating soil moisture based on vegetation index has been recognized and applied widely. 8 vegetation indexes were figured out based on the hyper-spectral data measured by portable spectrometer. The higher correlation indexes among 8 vegetation indexes and surface vegetation temperature were selected by Gray Relative Analysis method (GRA). Then, these selected indexes were analyzed using Multiple Linear Regression to establish soil moisture estimation model based on multiple vegetation indexes, and the model accuracy was evaluated. The accuracy evaluation indicated that the fitting was satisfied and the significance was 0.000 (P < 0.001). High correlation was turned out between estimated and measured soil moisture with R2 reached 0.636 1 and RMSE 2.149 9. This method introduced multiple vegetation indexes into soil water content estimating over micro scale by non-contact measuring method using portable spectrometer. The exact estimation could be an appropriate replacement for remote sensing inversion and direct measurement. The model could estimate soil moisture quickly and accurately, and provide theory and technology reference for water resource management in agriculture and forestry.

  3. Compressive Estimation and Imaging Based on Autoregressive Models.

    PubMed

    Testa, Matteo; Magli, Enrico

    2016-11-01

    Compressed sensing (CS) is a fast and efficient way to obtain compact signal representations. Oftentimes, one wishes to extract some information from the available compressed signal. Since CS signal recovery is typically expensive from a computational point of view, it is inconvenient to first recover the signal and then extract the information. A much more effective approach consists in estimating the information directly from the signal's linear measurements. In this paper, we propose a novel framework for compressive estimation of autoregressive (AR) process parameters based on ad hoc sensing matrix construction. More in detail, we introduce a compressive least square estimator for AR(p) parameters and a specific AR(1) compressive Bayesian estimator. We exploit the proposed techniques to address two important practical problems. The first is compressive covariance estimation for Toeplitz structured covariance matrices where we tackle the problem with a novel parametric approach based on the estimated AR parameters. The second is a block-based compressive imaging system, where we introduce an algorithm that adaptively calculates the number of measurements to be acquired for each block from a set of initial measurements based on its degree of compressibility. We show that the proposed techniques outperform the state-of-the-art methods for these two problems.

  4. Model-based approach for elevator performance estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Esteban, E.; Salgado, O.; Iturrospe, A.; Isasa, I.

    2016-02-01

    In this paper, a dynamic model for an elevator installation is presented in the state space domain. The model comprises both the mechanical and the electrical subsystems, including the electrical machine and a closed-loop field oriented control. The proposed model is employed for monitoring the condition of the elevator installation. The adopted model-based approach for monitoring employs the Kalman filter as an observer. A Kalman observer estimates the elevator car acceleration, which determines the elevator ride quality, based solely on the machine control signature and the encoder signal. Finally, five elevator key performance indicators are calculated based on the estimated car acceleration. The proposed procedure is experimentally evaluated, by comparing the key performance indicators calculated based on the estimated car acceleration and the values obtained from actual acceleration measurements in a test bench. Finally, the proposed procedure is compared with the sliding mode observer.

  5. Latitudinal variations in the abundance, biomass, taxonomic composition and estimated production of epipelagic mesozooplankton along the 155°E longitude in the western North Pacific during spring

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yamaguchi, A.; Matsuno, K.; Abe, Y.; Arima, D.; Imai, I.

    2017-01-01

    A total of 100 mesozooplankton samples collected with NORPAC nets from a 0 to 150-m depth at latitudinal stations (35-44°N) along 155°E each May from 2002 through 2011 were analyzed. The mesozooplankton abundance at each station varied from 39 to 1106 ind. m-3. The mesozooplankton biomass was consistently higher (80-100 mg DM m-3) in the transition domain (40-42°N) than the biomass in the other domains. An empirical metabolic rate-based carbon budget model indicated that production of mesozooplankton suspension feeders was highest (120-175 mg C m-2 d-1) in the transition domain. A comparison between the production of the mesozooplankton suspension feeders and the food requirement of mesozooplankton carnivores indicated that the latter was well fulfilled by the former in the subarctic and transition domains. However, the food requirement of the mesozooplankton carnivores was near equal to or exceeded the production of mesozooplankton suspension feeders in the subtropical domain. As an annual event, the feeding migration of epipelagic fish to the transition and subarctic domains in summer may be interpreted by their utilization of the excess secondary production (production of mesozooplankton suspension feeders).

  6. Improving quantum state estimation with mutually unbiased bases.

    PubMed

    Adamson, R B A; Steinberg, A M

    2010-07-16

    When used in quantum state estimation, projections onto mutually unbiased bases have the ability to maximize information extraction per measurement and to minimize redundancy. We present the first experimental demonstration of quantum state tomography of two-qubit polarization states to take advantage of mutually unbiased bases. We demonstrate improved state estimation as compared to standard measurement strategies and discuss how this can be understood from the structure of the measurements we use. We experimentally compared our method to the standard state estimation method for three different states and observe that the infidelity was up to 1.84 ± 0.06 times lower by using our technique than it was by using standard state estimation methods.

  7. Vehicle Lateral State Estimation Based on Measured Tyre Forces

    PubMed Central

    Tuononen, Ari J.

    2009-01-01

    Future active safety systems need more accurate information about the state of vehicles. This article proposes a method to evaluate the lateral state of a vehicle based on measured tyre forces. The tyre forces of two tyres are estimated from optically measured tyre carcass deflections and transmitted wirelessly to the vehicle body. The two remaining tyres are so-called virtual tyre sensors, the forces of which are calculated from the real tyre sensor estimates. The Kalman filter estimator for lateral vehicle state based on measured tyre forces is presented, together with a simple method to define adaptive measurement error covariance depending on the driving condition of the vehicle. The estimated yaw rate and lateral velocity are compared with the validation sensor measurements. PMID:22291535

  8. An MME-based attitude estimator using vector observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Crassidis, John L.; Markley, F. Landis

    1995-05-01

    In this paper, an optimal batch estimator and filter based on the Minimum Model Error (MME) approach is developed for three-axis stabilized spacecraft. Three different MME algorithms are developed. The first algorithm estimates the attitude of a spacecraft using rate measurements. The second algorithm estimates the attitude without using rate measurements. The absence of rate data may be a result of intentional design or from unexpected failure of existing gyros. The third algorithm determines input-torque modeling error trajectories. All of the algorithms developed in this paper use attitude sensors (e.g., three-axis magnetometers, sun sensors, star trackers, etc.). Results using these new algorithms indicate that an MME-based approach accurately estimates the attitude, rate, and input torque trajectories of an actual spacecraft.

  9. MME-based attitude dynamics identification and estimation for SAMPEX

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Depena, Juan; Crassidis, John L.; Mcpartland, Michael D.; Meyer, Thomas J.; Mook, D. Joseph

    1994-01-01

    A method is described for obtaining optimal attitude estimation algorithms for spacecraft lacking attitude rate measurement devices (rate gyros), and then demonstrated using actual flight data from the Solar, Anomalous, and Magnetospheric Particle Explorer (SAMPEX) spacecraft. SAMPEX does not have on-board rate sensing, and relies on sun sensors and a three-axis magnetometer for attitude determination. Problems arise since typical attitude estimation is accomplished by filtering measurements of both attitude and attitude rates. Rates are nearly always sampled much more densely than are attitudes. Thus, the absence/loss of rate data normally reduces both the total amount of data available and the sampling density (in time) by a substantial fraction. As a result, the sensitivity of the estimates to model uncertainty and to measurement noise increases. In order to maintain accuracy in the attitude estimates, there is increased need for accurate models of the rotational dynamics. The proposed approach is based on the minimum model error (MME) optimal estimation strategy, which has been successfully applied to estimation of poorly modeled dynamic systems which are relatively sparsely and/or noisily measured. The MME estimates may be used to construct accurate models of the system dynamics (i.e. perform system model identification). Thus, an MME-based approach directly addresses the problems created by absence of attitude rate measurements.

  10. Virtual Estimator for Piecewise Linear Systems Based on Observability Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Morales-Morales, Cornelio; Adam-Medina, Manuel; Cervantes, Ilse; Vela-Valdés and, Luis G.; García Beltrán, Carlos Daniel

    2013-01-01

    This article proposes a virtual sensor for piecewise linear systems based on observability analysis that is in function of a commutation law related with the system's outpu. This virtual sensor is also known as a state estimator. Besides, it presents a detector of active mode when the commutation sequences of each linear subsystem are arbitrary and unknown. For the previous, this article proposes a set of virtual estimators that discern the commutation paths of the system and allow estimating their output. In this work a methodology in order to test the observability for piecewise linear systems with discrete time is proposed. An academic example is presented to show the obtained results. PMID:23447007

  11. Estimation of Ultrafilter Performance Based on Characterization Data

    SciTech Connect

    Peterson, Reid A.; Geeting, John GH; Daniel, Richard C.

    2007-08-02

    Due to limited availability of test data with actual waste samples, a method was developed to estimate expected filtration performance based on physical characterization data for the Hanford Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant. A test with simulated waste was analyzed to demonstrate that filtration of this class of waste is consistent with a concentration polarization model. Subsequently, filtration data from actual waste samples were analyzed to demonstrate that centrifuged solids concentrations provide a reasonable estimate of the limiting concentration for filtration.

  12. Optical Enhancement of Exoskeleton-Based Estimation of Glenohumeral Angles.

    PubMed

    Cortés, Camilo; Unzueta, Luis; de Los Reyes-Guzmán, Ana; Ruiz, Oscar E; Flórez, Julián

    2016-01-01

    In Robot-Assisted Rehabilitation (RAR) the accurate estimation of the patient limb joint angles is critical for assessing therapy efficacy. In RAR, the use of classic motion capture systems (MOCAPs) (e.g., optical and electromagnetic) to estimate the Glenohumeral (GH) joint angles is hindered by the exoskeleton body, which causes occlusions and magnetic disturbances. Moreover, the exoskeleton posture does not accurately reflect limb posture, as their kinematic models differ. To address the said limitations in posture estimation, we propose installing the cameras of an optical marker-based MOCAP in the rehabilitation exoskeleton. Then, the GH joint angles are estimated by combining the estimated marker poses and exoskeleton Forward Kinematics. Such hybrid system prevents problems related to marker occlusions, reduced camera detection volume, and imprecise joint angle estimation due to the kinematic mismatch of the patient and exoskeleton models. This paper presents the formulation, simulation, and accuracy quantification of the proposed method with simulated human movements. In addition, a sensitivity analysis of the method accuracy to marker position estimation errors, due to system calibration errors and marker drifts, has been carried out. The results show that, even with significant errors in the marker position estimation, method accuracy is adequate for RAR.

  13. Optical Enhancement of Exoskeleton-Based Estimation of Glenohumeral Angles

    PubMed Central

    Cortés, Camilo; Unzueta, Luis; de los Reyes-Guzmán, Ana; Ruiz, Oscar E.; Flórez, Julián

    2016-01-01

    In Robot-Assisted Rehabilitation (RAR) the accurate estimation of the patient limb joint angles is critical for assessing therapy efficacy. In RAR, the use of classic motion capture systems (MOCAPs) (e.g., optical and electromagnetic) to estimate the Glenohumeral (GH) joint angles is hindered by the exoskeleton body, which causes occlusions and magnetic disturbances. Moreover, the exoskeleton posture does not accurately reflect limb posture, as their kinematic models differ. To address the said limitations in posture estimation, we propose installing the cameras of an optical marker-based MOCAP in the rehabilitation exoskeleton. Then, the GH joint angles are estimated by combining the estimated marker poses and exoskeleton Forward Kinematics. Such hybrid system prevents problems related to marker occlusions, reduced camera detection volume, and imprecise joint angle estimation due to the kinematic mismatch of the patient and exoskeleton models. This paper presents the formulation, simulation, and accuracy quantification of the proposed method with simulated human movements. In addition, a sensitivity analysis of the method accuracy to marker position estimation errors, due to system calibration errors and marker drifts, has been carried out. The results show that, even with significant errors in the marker position estimation, method accuracy is adequate for RAR. PMID:27403044

  14. Sequential ensemble-based optimal design for parameter estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Man, Jun; Zhang, Jiangjiang; Li, Weixuan; Zeng, Lingzao; Wu, Laosheng

    2016-10-01

    The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) has been widely used in parameter estimation for hydrological models. The focus of most previous studies was to develop more efficient analysis (estimation) algorithms. On the other hand, it is intuitively understandable that a well-designed sampling (data-collection) strategy should provide more informative measurements and subsequently improve the parameter estimation. In this work, a Sequential Ensemble-based Optimal Design (SEOD) method, coupled with EnKF, information theory and sequential optimal design, is proposed to improve the performance of parameter estimation. Based on the first-order and second-order statistics, different information metrics including the Shannon entropy difference (SD), degrees of freedom for signal (DFS) and relative entropy (RE) are used to design the optimal sampling strategy, respectively. The effectiveness of the proposed method is illustrated by synthetic one-dimensional and two-dimensional unsaturated flow case studies. It is shown that the designed sampling strategies can provide more accurate parameter estimation and state prediction compared with conventional sampling strategies. Optimal sampling designs based on various information metrics perform similarly in our cases. The effect of ensemble size on the optimal design is also investigated. Overall, larger ensemble size improves the parameter estimation and convergence of optimal sampling strategy. Although the proposed method is applied to unsaturated flow problems in this study, it can be equally applied in any other hydrological problems.

  15. A novel SURE-based criterion for parametric PSF estimation.

    PubMed

    Xue, Feng; Blu, Thierry

    2015-02-01

    We propose an unbiased estimate of a filtered version of the mean squared error--the blur-SURE (Stein's unbiased risk estimate)--as a novel criterion for estimating an unknown point spread function (PSF) from the degraded image only. The PSF is obtained by minimizing this new objective functional over a family of Wiener processings. Based on this estimated blur kernel, we then perform nonblind deconvolution using our recently developed algorithm. The SURE-based framework is exemplified with a number of parametric PSF, involving a scaling factor that controls the blur size. A typical example of such parametrization is the Gaussian kernel. The experimental results demonstrate that minimizing the blur-SURE yields highly accurate estimates of the PSF parameters, which also result in a restoration quality that is very similar to the one obtained with the exact PSF, when plugged into our recent multi-Wiener SURE-LET deconvolution algorithm. The highly competitive results obtained outline the great potential of developing more powerful blind deconvolution algorithms based on SURE-like estimates.

  16. Estimation of Thermal Sensation Based on Wrist Skin Temperatures

    PubMed Central

    Sim, Soo Young; Koh, Myung Jun; Joo, Kwang Min; Noh, Seungwoo; Park, Sangyun; Kim, Youn Ho; Park, Kwang Suk

    2016-01-01

    Thermal comfort is an essential environmental factor related to quality of life and work effectiveness. We assessed the feasibility of wrist skin temperature monitoring for estimating subjective thermal sensation. We invented a wrist band that simultaneously monitors skin temperatures from the wrist (i.e., the radial artery and ulnar artery regions, and upper wrist) and the fingertip. Skin temperatures from eight healthy subjects were acquired while thermal sensation varied. To develop a thermal sensation estimation model, the mean skin temperature, temperature gradient, time differential of the temperatures, and average power of frequency band were calculated. A thermal sensation estimation model using temperatures of the fingertip and wrist showed the highest accuracy (mean root mean square error [RMSE]: 1.26 ± 0.31). An estimation model based on the three wrist skin temperatures showed a slightly better result to the model that used a single fingertip skin temperature (mean RMSE: 1.39 ± 0.18). When a personalized thermal sensation estimation model based on three wrist skin temperatures was used, the mean RMSE was 1.06 ± 0.29, and the correlation coefficient was 0.89. Thermal sensation estimation technology based on wrist skin temperatures, and combined with wearable devices may facilitate intelligent control of one’s thermal environment. PMID:27023538

  17. Estimation of Cometary Rotation Parameters Based on Camera Images

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Spindler, Karlheinz

    2007-01-01

    The purpose of the Rosetta mission is the in situ analysis of a cometary nucleus using both remote sensing equipment and scientific instruments delivered to the comet surface by a lander and transmitting measurement data to the comet-orbiting probe. Following a tour of planets including one Mars swing-by and three Earth swing-bys, the Rosetta probe is scheduled to rendezvous with comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko in May 2014. The mission poses various flight dynamics challenges, both in terms of parameter estimation and maneuver planning. Along with spacecraft parameters, the comet's position, velocity, attitude, angular velocity, inertia tensor and gravitatonal field need to be estimated. The measurements on which the estimation process is based are ground-based measurements (range and Doppler) yielding information on the heliocentric spacecraft state and images taken by an on-board camera yielding informaton on the comet state relative to the spacecraft. The image-based navigation depends on te identification of cometary landmarks (whose body coordinates also need to be estimated in the process). The paper will describe the estimation process involved, focusing on the phase when, after orbit insertion, the task arises to estimate the cometary rotational motion from camera images on which individual landmarks begin to become identifiable.

  18. Estimation of Thermal Sensation Based on Wrist Skin Temperatures.

    PubMed

    Sim, Soo Young; Koh, Myung Jun; Joo, Kwang Min; Noh, Seungwoo; Park, Sangyun; Kim, Youn Ho; Park, Kwang Suk

    2016-03-23

    Thermal comfort is an essential environmental factor related to quality of life and work effectiveness. We assessed the feasibility of wrist skin temperature monitoring for estimating subjective thermal sensation. We invented a wrist band that simultaneously monitors skin temperatures from the wrist (i.e., the radial artery and ulnar artery regions, and upper wrist) and the fingertip. Skin temperatures from eight healthy subjects were acquired while thermal sensation varied. To develop a thermal sensation estimation model, the mean skin temperature, temperature gradient, time differential of the temperatures, and average power of frequency band were calculated. A thermal sensation estimation model using temperatures of the fingertip and wrist showed the highest accuracy (mean root mean square error [RMSE]: 1.26 ± 0.31). An estimation model based on the three wrist skin temperatures showed a slightly better result to the model that used a single fingertip skin temperature (mean RMSE: 1.39 ± 0.18). When a personalized thermal sensation estimation model based on three wrist skin temperatures was used, the mean RMSE was 1.06 ± 0.29, and the correlation coefficient was 0.89. Thermal sensation estimation technology based on wrist skin temperatures, and combined with wearable devices may facilitate intelligent control of one's thermal environment.

  19. Pros, Cons, and Alternatives to Weight Based Cost Estimating

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Joyner, Claude R.; Lauriem, Jonathan R.; Levack, Daniel H.; Zapata, Edgar

    2011-01-01

    Many cost estimating tools use weight as a major parameter in projecting the cost. This is often combined with modifying factors such as complexity, technical maturity of design, environment of operation, etc. to increase the fidelity of the estimate. For a set of conceptual designs, all meeting the same requirements, increased weight can be a major driver in increased cost. However, once a design is fixed, increased weight generally decreases cost, while decreased weight generally increases cost - and the relationship is not linear. Alternative approaches to estimating cost without using weight (except perhaps for materials costs) have been attempted to try to produce a tool usable throughout the design process - from concept studies through development. This paper will address the pros and cons of using weight based models for cost estimating, using liquid rocket engines as the example. It will then examine approaches that minimize the impct of weight based cost estimating. The Rocket Engine- Cost Model (RECM) is an attribute based model developed internally by Pratt & Whitney Rocketdyne for NASA. RECM will be presented primarily to show a successful method to use design and programmatic parameters instead of weight to estimate both design and development costs and production costs. An operations model developed by KSC, the Launch and Landing Effects Ground Operations model (LLEGO), will also be discussed.

  20. HydrogeoEstimatorXL: an Excel-based tool for estimating hydraulic gradient magnitude and direction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Devlin, J. F.; Schillig, P. C.

    2017-01-01

    HydrogeoEstimatorXL is a free software tool for the interpretation of flow systems based on spatial hydrogeological field data from multi-well networks. It runs on the familiar Excel spreadsheet platform. The program accepts well location coordinates and hydraulic head data, and returns an analysis of the area flow system in two dimensions based on (1) a single best fit plane of the potentiometric surface and (2) three-point estimators, i.e., well triplets assumed to bound planar sections of the potentiometric surface. The software produces graphical outputs including histograms of hydraulic gradient magnitude and direction, groundwater velocity (based on a site average hydraulic properties), as well as mapped renditions of the estimator triangles and the velocity vectors associated with them. Within the software, a transect can be defined and the mass discharge of a groundwater contaminant crossing the transect can be estimated. This kind of analysis is helpful in gaining an overview of a site's hydrogeology, for problem definition, and as a review tool to check the reasonableness of other independent calculations.

  1. Fuzzy case based reasoning in sports facilities unit cost estimating

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zima, Krzysztof

    2016-06-01

    This article presents an example of estimating costs in the early phase of the project using fuzzy case-based reasoning. The fragment of database containing descriptions and unit cost of sports facilities was shown. The formulas used in Case Based Reasoning method were presented, too. The article presents similarity measurement using a few formulas, including fuzzy similarity. The outcome of cost calculations based on CBR method was presented as a fuzzy number of unit cost of construction work.

  2. A Channelization-Based DOA Estimation Method for Wideband Signals

    PubMed Central

    Guo, Rui; Zhang, Yue; Lin, Qianqiang; Chen, Zengping

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a novel direction of arrival (DOA) estimation method for wideband signals with sensor arrays. The proposed method splits the wideband array output into multiple frequency sub-channels and estimates the signal parameters using a digital channelization receiver. Based on the output sub-channels, a channelization-based incoherent signal subspace method (Channelization-ISM) and a channelization-based test of orthogonality of projected subspaces method (Channelization-TOPS) are proposed. Channelization-ISM applies narrowband signal subspace methods on each sub-channel independently. Then the arithmetic mean or geometric mean of the estimated DOAs from each sub-channel gives the final result. Channelization-TOPS measures the orthogonality between the signal and the noise subspaces of the output sub-channels to estimate DOAs. The proposed channelization-based method isolates signals in different bandwidths reasonably and improves the output SNR. It outperforms the conventional ISM and TOPS methods on estimation accuracy and dynamic range, especially in real environments. Besides, the parallel processing architecture makes it easy to implement on hardware. A wideband digital array radar (DAR) using direct wideband radio frequency (RF) digitization is presented. Experiments carried out in a microwave anechoic chamber with the wideband DAR are presented to demonstrate the performance. The results verify the effectiveness of the proposed method. PMID:27384566

  3. CALIBRATING C-IV-BASED BLACK HOLE MASS ESTIMATORS

    SciTech Connect

    Park, Daeseong; Woo, Jong-Hak; Shin, Jaejin; Denney, Kelly D. E-mail: woo@astro.snu.ac.kr E-mail: kelly@dark-cosmology.dk

    2013-06-20

    We present the single-epoch black hole mass estimators based on the C IV {lambda}1549 broad emission line, using the updated sample of the reverberation-mapped active galactic nuclei and high-quality UV spectra. By performing multi-component spectral fitting analysis, we measure the C IV line widths (FWHM{sub C{sub IV}} and line dispersion, {sigma}{sub C{sub IV}}) and the continuum luminosity at 1350 A (L{sub 1350}) to calibrate the C-IV-based mass estimators. By comparing with the H{beta} reverberation-based masses, we provide new mass estimators with the best-fit relationships, i.e., M{sub BH}{proportional_to}L{sub 1350}{sup 0.50{+-}0.07}{sigma}{sub C{sub IV}{sup 2}} and M{sub BH}{proportional_to}L{sub 1350}{sup 0.52{+-}0.09} FWHM{sub C{sub IV}{sup 0.56{+-}0.48}}. The new C-IV-based mass estimators show significant mass-dependent systematic difference compared to the estimators commonly used in the literature. Using the published Sloan Digital Sky Survey QSO catalog, we show that the black hole mass of high-redshift QSOs decreases on average by {approx}0.25 dex if our recipe is adopted.

  4. Calibrating C-IV-based Black Hole Mass Estimators

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Park, Daeseong; Woo, Jong-Hak; Denney, Kelly D.; Shin, Jaejin

    2013-06-01

    We present the single-epoch black hole mass estimators based on the C IV λ1549 broad emission line, using the updated sample of the reverberation-mapped active galactic nuclei and high-quality UV spectra. By performing multi-component spectral fitting analysis, we measure the C IV line widths (FWHMC IV and line dispersion, σC IV ) and the continuum luminosity at 1350 Å (L 1350) to calibrate the C-IV-based mass estimators. By comparing with the Hβ reverberation-based masses, we provide new mass estimators with the best-fit relationships, i.e., M_BH \\propto L_{1350}^{0.50+/- 0.07} \\sigma _{C\\,\\scriptsize{IV}}^{2} and M_BH \\propto L_{1350}^{0.52+/- 0.09}\\,FWHM_{C\\,\\scriptsize{IV}}^{0.56+/- 0.48}. The new C-IV-based mass estimators show significant mass-dependent systematic difference compared to the estimators commonly used in the literature. Using the published Sloan Digital Sky Survey QSO catalog, we show that the black hole mass of high-redshift QSOs decreases on average by ~0.25 dex if our recipe is adopted.

  5. Single-View Food Portion Estimation Based on Geometric Models

    PubMed Central

    Fang, Shaobo; Liu, Chang; Zhu, Fengqing; Delp, Edward J.; Boushey, Carol J.

    2016-01-01

    In this paper we present a food portion estimation technique based on a single-view food image used for the estimation of the amount of energy (in kilocalories) consumed at a meal. Unlike previous methods we have developed, the new technique is capable of estimating food portion without manual tuning of parameters. Although single-view 3D scene reconstruction is in general an ill-posed problem, the use of geometric models such as the shape of a container can help to partially recover 3D parameters of food items in the scene. Based on the estimated 3D parameters of each food item and a reference object in the scene, the volume of each food item in the image can be determined. The weight of each food can then be estimated using the density of the food item. We were able to achieve an error of less than 6% for energy estimation of an image of a meal assuming accurate segmentation and food classification. PMID:27672682

  6. Age estimation based on aspartic acid racemization in human sclera.

    PubMed

    Klumb, Karolin; Matzenauer, Christian; Reckert, Alexandra; Lehmann, Klaus; Ritz-Timme, Stefanie

    2016-01-01

    Age estimation based on racemization of aspartic acid residues (AAR) in permanent proteins has been established in forensic medicine for years. While dentine is the tissue of choice for this molecular method of age estimation, teeth are not always available which leads to the need to identify other suitable tissues. We examined the suitability of total tissue samples of human sclera for the estimation of age at death. Sixty-five samples of scleral tissue were analyzed. The samples were hydrolyzed and after derivatization, the extent of aspartic acid racemization was determined by gas chromatography. The degree of AAR increased with age. In samples from younger individuals, the correlation of age and D-aspartic acid content was closer than in samples from older individuals. The age-dependent racemization in total tissue samples proves that permanent or at least long-living proteins are present in scleral tissue. The correlation of AAR in human sclera and age at death is close enough to serve as basis for age estimation. However, the precision of age estimation by this method is lower than that of age estimation based on the analysis of dentine which is due to molecular inhomogeneities of total tissue samples of sclera. Nevertheless, the approach may serve as a valuable alternative or addition in exceptional cases.

  7. Richness-productivity relationships between trophic levels in a detritus-based system: significance of abundance and trophic linkage.

    PubMed

    Yee, Donald A; Yee, Susan Harrell; Kneitel, Jamie M; Juliano, Steven A

    2007-11-01

    Most theoretical and empirical studies of productivity-species richness relationships fail to consider linkages among trophic levels. We quantified productivity-richness relationships in detritus-based, water-filled tree-hole communities for two trophic levels: invertebrate consumers and the protozoans on which they feed. By analogy to theory for biomass partitioning among trophic levels, we predicted that consumer control would result in richness of protozoans in the lower trophic level being unaffected by increases in productivity, whereas richness of invertebrate consumers would increase with productivity. Our data were consistent with this prediction: consumer richness increased linearly, but protozoan richness was unrelated to changes in productivity. The productivity-richness relationships for all taxa combined were not necessarily consistent with relationships within each trophic level. We used path analysis to investigate the mechanisms that may produce the observed responses of trophic levels to changes in productivity. We tested the importance of the direct effect of productivity on richness and the indirect effect of productivity mediated by effects on total abundance. For protozoans, only direct effects of productivity on richness were important, but both direct and indirect effects of productivity on richness were important for invertebrates. Protozoan richness was strongly affected by top-down impacts of abundance of invertebrates. These results are consistent with theory on biomass partitioning among trophic levels and suggest a strong link between richness and abundance within and between trophic levels. Understanding how trophic level interactions determine productivity-richness relationships will likely be necessary in order for us to achieve a comprehensive understanding of the determinants of diversity.

  8. Detection of an abundant plant-based small RNA in consumers

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Mechanisms of delivery of plant small RNAs to consumers must be addressed in order to harness this technology to positively impact agbiotechnology. Two groups have used honeysuckle (Lonicera japonica) feeding regimes to detect a plant-based small RNA, termed MIR2911, in sera. Meanwhile, numerous gro...

  9. Adaptive Estimation of Intravascular Shear Rate Based on Parameter Optimization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nitta, Naotaka; Takeda, Naoto

    2008-05-01

    The relationships between the intravascular wall shear stress, controlled by flow dynamics, and the progress of arteriosclerosis plaque have been clarified by various studies. Since the shear stress is determined by the viscosity coefficient and shear rate, both factors must be estimated accurately. In this paper, an adaptive method for improving the accuracy of quantitative shear rate estimation was investigated. First, the parameter dependence of the estimated shear rate was investigated in terms of the differential window width and the number of averaged velocity profiles based on simulation and experimental data, and then the shear rate calculation was optimized. The optimized result revealed that the proposed adaptive method of shear rate estimation was effective for improving the accuracy of shear rate calculation.

  10. Accelerometry-based berg balance scale score estimation.

    PubMed

    Simila, Heidi; Mantyjarvi, Jani; Merilahti, Juho; Lindholm, Mikko; Ermes, Miikka

    2014-07-01

    The objective of the study was to investigate the validity of 3-D-accelerometry-based Berg balance scale (BBS) score estimation. In particular, acceleration patterns of BBS tasks and gait were the targets of analysis. Accelerations of the lower back were measured during execution of the BBS test and corridor walking for 54 subjects, consisting of neurological patients, older adults, and healthy young persons. The BBS score was estimated from one to three BBS tasks and from gait-related data, separately, through assessment of the similarity of acceleration patterns between subjects. The work also validated both approaches' ability to classify subjects into high- and low-fall-risk groups. The gait-based method yielded the best BBS score estimates and the most accurate BBS-task-based estimates were produced with the stand to sit, reaching, and picking object tasks. The proposed gait-based method can identify subjects with high or low risk of falling with an accuracy of 77.8% and 96.6%, respectively, and the BBS-task based method with corresponding accuracy of 89.5% and 62.1%.

  11. Oxygen abundance maps of CALIFA galaxies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zinchenko, I. A.; Pilyugin, L. S.; Grebel, E. K.; Sánchez, S. F.; Vílchez, J. M.

    2016-11-01

    We construct maps of the oxygen abundance distribution across the discs of 88 galaxies using Calar Alto Legacy Integral Field Area survey (CALIFA) Data Release 2 (DR2) spectra. The position of the centre of a galaxy (coordinates on the plate) was also taken from the CALIFA DR2. The galaxy inclination, the position angle of the major axis, and the optical radius were determined from the analysis of the surface brightnesses in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) g and r bands of the photometric maps of SDSS Data Release 9. We explore the global azimuthal abundance asymmetry in the discs of the CALIFA galaxies and the presence of a break in the radial oxygen abundance distribution. We found that there is no significant global azimuthal asymmetry for our sample of galaxies, i.e. the asymmetry is small, usually lower than 0.05 dex. The scatter in oxygen abundances around the abundance gradient has a comparable value, ≲0.05 dex. A significant (possibly dominant) fraction of the asymmetry can be attributed to the uncertainties in the geometrical parameters of these galaxies. There is evidence for a flattening of the radial abundance gradient in the central part of 18 galaxies. We also estimated the geometric parameters (coordinates of the centre, the galaxy inclination and the position angle of the major axis) of our galaxies from the analysis of the abundance map. The photometry-map-based and the abundance-map-based geometrical parameters are relatively close to each other for the majority of the galaxies but the discrepancy is large for a few galaxies with a flat radial abundance gradient.

  12. The Giant Branch of omega Centauri. IV. Abundance Patterns Based on Echelle Spectra of 40 Red Giants

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Norris, John E.; Da Costa, G. S.

    1995-07-01

    Abundances of some 20 elements have been determined for a (biased) sample of 40 red giants having Mv < -1.5 in the chemically inhomogeneous globular cluster ω Centauri. The results are based on high-resolution, high signal-to-noise echelle spectra and permit one to examine the roles of primordial enrichment and stellar evolutionary mixing effects in the cluster. Our basic conclusions are as follows (1) There is an abundance range -1.8 < [Fe/H] < -0.8, and even more metal rich stars may exist in the cluster. (2) For the α (Mg, Si, Ca, Ti) and iron peak (Cr, Ni) elements and Sc and V, [metal/Fe] is flat as a function of [Fe/H] and is consistent with primordial enrichment from stars having mass greater than 10 Msun, as has been found for field halo stars. (3) There is a large scatter in the abundances of C, N, and 0. The bulk of the stars have -0.9 < [C/Fe] < -0.3 and [O/Fe] ˜ 0.3, as is found at the red giant branch tip in other "normal" (showing no spread in [Fe/H]) clusters of similar abundance, while there also exists a group of CN-strong stars having [C/Fe] ˜ -0.7 and [O/Fe] ˜ -0.5. Nitrogen appears to be enhanced in all of these carbon-depleted stars. These results are most readily explained in terms of evolutionary mixing effects not predicted by standard stellar evolution calculations and are consistent with the earlier suggestions of Cohen & Bell (1986) and Paltoglou & Norris (1989) concerning processing in both the CN and ON cycles in the stars being observed. In contrast, the group of CO-strong stars first identified by Persson et al. (1980) has [C/Fe] ˜ 0.0, [O/Fe] ˜ 0.4, and [N/Fe] ˜ 0.4 (or 0.9 if the nitrogen scale of Brown and Wallerstein is correct) and is suggestive of primordial enrichment of carbon and/or nitrogen from intermediate- and possibly low-mass stars, tempered by later stellar evolutionary effects. (4) [Na/Fe] and [Al/Fe] are anticorrelated with [O/Fe], and there is a positive correlation between [Na/Fe] and [Al/Fe], all of which

  13. Magnetotelluric Response Function Estimation Based on Hilbert-Huang Transform

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cai, Jian-hua

    2013-11-01

    Magnetotelluric (MT) data series are non-stationary random signals that do not meet the basic requirements of conventional methods based on the Fourier transform. To minimize the estimation bias errors brought about by the non-stationary characteristics of MT data, a new method, based on the Hilbert-Huang transform (HHT), is proposed for the first time for estimating the MT response functions from a time series of electromagnetic field variations. With the HHT method, the amplitude of data series are expressed as a function of frequency and time and then response functions are estimated statistically from the time-frequency spectrum. Mathematical model and calculation processes are introduced and some simulated data are analyzed to verify the correctness of the method. Finally, the measured MT data is facilitated by applying the HHT to assess the ability of HHT method to quantify meaningful geologic information.

  14. Stochastic Complexity Based Estimation of Missing Elements in Questionnaire Data.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tirri, Henry; Silander, Tomi

    A new information-theoretically justified approach to missing data estimation for multivariate categorical data was studied. The approach is a model-based imputation procedure relative to a model class (i.e., a functional form for the probability distribution of the complete data matrix), which in this case is the set of multinomial models with…

  15. Age estimation based on Kvaal's technique using digital panoramic radiographs

    PubMed Central

    Mittal, Samta; Nagendrareddy, Suma Gundareddy; Sharma, Manisha Lakhanpal; Agnihotri, Poornapragna; Chaudhary, Sunil; Dhillon, Manu

    2016-01-01

    Introduction: Age estimation is important for administrative and ethical reasons and also because of legal consequences. Dental pulp undergoes regression in size with increasing age due to secondary dentin deposition and can be used as a parameter of age estimation even beyond 25 years of age. Kvaal et al. developed a method for chronological age estimation based on the pulp size using periapical dental radiographs. There is a need for testing this method of age estimation in the Indian population using simple tools like digital imaging on living individuals not requiring extraction of teeth. Aims and Objectives: Estimation of the chronological age of subjects by Kvaal's method using digital panoramic radiographs and also testing the validity of regression equations as given by Kvaal et al. Materials and Methods: The study sample included a total of 152 subjects in the age group of 14-60 years. Measurements were performed on the standardized digital panoramic radiographs based on Kvaal's method. Different regression formulae were derived and the age was assessed. The assessed age was then correlated to the actual age of the patient using Student's t-test. Results: No significant difference between the mean of the chronological age and the estimated age was observed. However, the values of the mean age estimated by using regression equations as given previously in the study of Kvaal et al. significantly underestimated the chronological age in the present study sample. Conclusion: The results of the study give an inference for the feasibility of this technique by calculation of regression equations on digital panoramic radiographs. However, it negates the applicability of same regression equations as given by Kvaal et al. on the study population. PMID:27555738

  16. Synchronous Generator Model Parameter Estimation Based on Noisy Dynamic Waveforms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Berhausen, Sebastian; Paszek, Stefan

    2016-01-01

    In recent years, there have occurred system failures in many power systems all over the world. They have resulted in a lack of power supply to a large number of recipients. To minimize the risk of occurrence of power failures, it is necessary to perform multivariate investigations, including simulations, of power system operating conditions. To conduct reliable simulations, the current base of parameters of the models of generating units, containing the models of synchronous generators, is necessary. In the paper, there is presented a method for parameter estimation of a synchronous generator nonlinear model based on the analysis of selected transient waveforms caused by introducing a disturbance (in the form of a pseudorandom signal) in the generator voltage regulation channel. The parameter estimation was performed by minimizing the objective function defined as a mean square error for deviations between the measurement waveforms and the waveforms calculated based on the generator mathematical model. A hybrid algorithm was used for the minimization of the objective function. In the paper, there is described a filter system used for filtering the noisy measurement waveforms. The calculation results of the model of a 44 kW synchronous generator installed on a laboratory stand of the Institute of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science of the Silesian University of Technology are also given. The presented estimation method can be successfully applied to parameter estimation of different models of high-power synchronous generators operating in a power system.

  17. Estimating evaporative vapor generation from automobiles based on parking activities.

    PubMed

    Dong, Xinyi; Tschantz, Michael; Fu, Joshua S

    2015-07-01

    A new approach is proposed to quantify the evaporative vapor generation based on real parking activity data. As compared to the existing methods, two improvements are applied in this new approach to reduce the uncertainties: First, evaporative vapor generation from diurnal parking events is usually calculated based on estimated average parking duration for the whole fleet, while in this study, vapor generation rate is calculated based on parking activities distribution. Second, rather than using the daily temperature gradient, this study uses hourly temperature observations to derive the hourly incremental vapor generation rates. The parking distribution and hourly incremental vapor generation rates are then adopted with Wade-Reddy's equation to estimate the weighted average evaporative generation. We find that hourly incremental rates can better describe the temporal variations of vapor generation, and the weighted vapor generation rate is 5-8% less than calculation without considering parking activity.

  18. Classifier-based latency estimation: a novel way to estimate and predict BCI accuracy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thompson, David E.; Warschausky, Seth; Huggins, Jane E.

    2013-02-01

    Objective. Brain-computer interfaces (BCIs) that detect event-related potentials (ERPs) rely on classification schemes that are vulnerable to latency jitter, a phenomenon known to occur with ERPs such as the P300 response. The objective of this work was to investigate the role that latency jitter plays in BCI classification. Approach. We developed a novel method, classifier-based latency estimation (CBLE), based on a generalization of Woody filtering. The technique works by presenting the time-shifted data to the classifier, and using the time shift that corresponds to the maximal classifier score. Main results. The variance of CBLE estimates correlates significantly (p < 10-42) with BCI accuracy in the Farwell-Donchin BCI paradigm. Additionally, CBLE predicts same-day accuracy, even from small datasets or datasets that have already been used for classifier training, better than the accuracy on the small dataset (p < 0.05). The technique should be relatively classifier-independent, and the results were confirmed on two linear classifiers. Significance. The results suggest that latency jitter may be an important cause of poor BCI performance, and methods that correct for latency jitter may improve that performance. CBLE can also be used to decrease the amount of data needed for accuracy estimation, allowing research on effects with shorter timescales.

  19. Parallel implementation of a hyperspectral data geometry-based estimation of number of endmembers algorithm

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bernabé, Sergio; Martin, Gabriel; Botella, Guillermo; Prieto-Matias, Manuel; Plaza, Antonio

    2016-04-01

    In the last years, hyperspectral analysis have been applied in many remote sensing applications. In fact, hyperspectral unmixing has been a challenging task in hyperspectral data exploitation. This process consists of three stages: (i) estimation of the number of pure spectral signatures or endmembers, (ii) automatic identification of the estimated endmembers, and (iii) estimation of the fractional abundance of each endmember in each pixel of the scene. However, unmixing algorithms can be computationally very expensive, a fact that compromises their use in applications under real-time constraints. In recent years, several techniques have been proposed to solve the aforementioned problem but until now, most works have focused on the second and third stages. The execution cost of the first stage is usually lower than the other stages. Indeed, it can be optional if we known a priori this estimation. However, its acceleration on parallel architectures is still an interesting and open problem. In this paper we have addressed this issue focusing on the GENE algorithm, a promising geometry-based proposal introduced in.1 We have evaluated our parallel implementation in terms of both accuracy and computational performance through Monte Carlo simulations for real and synthetic data experiments. Performance results on a modern GPU shows satisfactory 16x speedup factors, which allow us to expect that this method could meet real-time requirements on a fully operational unmixing chain.

  20. Experimental factors affecting PCR-based estimates of microbial species richness and evenness.

    PubMed

    Engelbrektson, Anna; Kunin, Victor; Wrighton, Kelly C; Zvenigorodsky, Natasha; Chen, Feng; Ochman, Howard; Hugenholtz, Philip

    2010-05-01

    Pyrosequencing of 16S rRNA gene amplicons for microbial community profiling can, for equivalent costs, yield more than two orders of magnitude more sensitivity than traditional PCR cloning and Sanger sequencing. With this increased sensitivity and the ability to analyze multiple samples in parallel, it has become possible to evaluate several technical aspects of PCR-based community structure profiling methods. We tested the effect of amplicon length and primer pair on estimates of species richness (number of species) and evenness (relative abundance of species) by assessing the potentially tractable microbial community residing in the termite hindgut. Two regions of the 16S rRNA gene were sequenced from one of two common priming sites, spanning the V1-V2 or V8 regions, using amplicons ranging in length from 352 to 1443 bp. Our results show that both amplicon length and primer pair markedly influence estimates of richness and evenness. However, estimates of species evenness are consistent among different primer pairs targeting the same region. These results highlight the importance of experimental methodology when comparing diversity estimates across communities.

  1. Image-based spectral transmission estimation using "sensitivity comparison".

    PubMed

    Nahavandi, Alireza Mahmoudi; Tehran, Mohammad Amani

    2017-01-20

    Although digital cameras have been used for spectral reflectance estimation, transmission measurement has rarely been considered in studies. This study presents a method named sensitivity comparison (SC) for spectral transmission estimation. The method needs neither a priori knowledge from the samples nor statistical information of a given reflectance dataset. As with spectrophotometers, the SC method needs one shot for calibration and another shot for measurement. The method exploits the sensitivity of the camera in the absence and presence of transparent colored objects for transmission estimation. 138 Kodak Wratten Gelatin filter transmissions were used for controlling the proposed method. Using modeling of the imaging system in different levels of noise, the performance of the proposed method was compared with a training-based Matrix R method. For checking the performance of the SC method in practice, 33 manmade colored transparent films were used in a conventional three-channel camera. The method generated promising results using different error metrics.

  2. Estimation of Characteristic Period for Energy Based Seismic Design

    SciTech Connect

    Hancloglu, Baykal; Polat, Zekeriya; Kircil, Murat Serdar

    2008-07-08

    Estimation of input energy using approximate methods has been always a considerable research topic of energy based seismic design. Therefore several approaches have been proposed by many researchers to estimate the energy input to SDOF systems in the last decades. The characteristic period is the key parameter of most of these approaches and it is defined as the period at which the peak value of the input energy occurs. In this study an equation is proposed for estimating the characteristic period considering an extensive earthquake ground motion database which includes a total of 268 far-field records, two horizontal components from 134 recording stations located on both soft and firm soil sites. For this purpose statistical regression analyses are performed to develop an equation in terms of a number of structural parameters, and it is found that the developed equation yields satisfactory results comparing the characteristic periods calculated from time history analyses of SDOF systems.

  3. Inferring invasive species abundance using removal data from management actions.

    PubMed

    Davis, Amy J; Hooten, Mevin B; Miller, Ryan S; Farnsworth, Matthew L; Lewis, Jesse; Moxcey, Michael; Pepin, Kim M

    2016-10-01

    Evaluation of the progress of management programs for invasive species is crucial for demonstrating impacts to stakeholders and strategic planning of resource allocation. Estimates of abundance before and after management activities can serve as a useful metric of population management programs. However, many methods of estimating population size are too labor intensive and costly to implement, posing restrictive levels of burden on operational programs. Removal models are a reliable method for estimating abundance before and after management using data from the removal activities exclusively, thus requiring no work in addition to management. We developed a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate abundance from removal data accounting for varying levels of effort, and used simulations to assess the conditions under which reliable population estimates are obtained. We applied this model to estimate site-specific abundance of an invasive species, feral swine (Sus scrofa), using removal data from aerial gunning in 59 site/time-frame combinations (480-19,600 acres) throughout Oklahoma and Texas, USA. Simulations showed that abundance estimates were generally accurate when effective removal rates (removal rate accounting for total effort) were above 0.40. However, when abundances were small (<50) the effective removal rate needed to accurately estimates abundances was considerably higher (0.70). Based on our post-validation method, 78% of our site/time frame estimates were accurate. To use this modeling framework it is important to have multiple removals (more than three) within a time frame during which demographic changes are minimized (i.e., a closed population; ≤3 months for feral swine). Our results show that the probability of accurately estimating abundance from this model improves with increased sampling effort (8+ flight hours across the 3-month window is best) and increased removal rate. Based on the inverse relationship between inaccurate abundances and

  4. Inferring invasive species abundance using removal data from management actions

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Davis, Amy J.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Miller, Ryan S.; Farnsworth, Matthew L.; Lewis, Jesse S.; Moxcey, Michael; Pepin, Kim M.

    2016-01-01

    Evaluation of the progress of management programs for invasive species is crucial for demonstrating impacts to stakeholders and strategic planning of resource allocation. Estimates of abundance before and after management activities can serve as a useful metric of population management programs. However, many methods of estimating population size are too labor intensive and costly to implement, posing restrictive levels of burden on operational programs. Removal models are a reliable method for estimating abundance before and after management using data from the removal activities exclusively, thus requiring no work in addition to management. We developed a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate abundance from removal data accounting for varying levels of effort, and used simulations to assess the conditions under which reliable population estimates are obtained. We applied this model to estimate site-specific abundance of an invasive species, feral swine (Sus scrofa), using removal data from aerial gunning in 59 site/time-frame combinations (480–19,600 acres) throughout Oklahoma and Texas, USA. Simulations showed that abundance estimates were generally accurate when effective removal rates (removal rate accounting for total effort) were above 0.40. However, when abundances were small (<50) the effective removal rate needed to accurately estimates abundances was considerably higher (0.70). Based on our post-validation method, 78% of our site/time frame estimates were accurate. To use this modeling framework it is important to have multiple removals (more than three) within a time frame during which demographic changes are minimized (i.e., a closed population; ≤3 months for feral swine). Our results show that the probability of accurately estimating abundance from this model improves with increased sampling effort (8+ flight hours across the 3-month window is best) and increased removal rate. Based on the inverse relationship between inaccurate abundances and

  5. Optical flow based velocity estimation for mobile robots

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Xiuzhi; Zhao, Guanrong; Jia, Songmin; Qin, Baoling; Yang, Ailin

    2015-02-01

    This paper presents an optical flow based novel technique to perceive the instant motion velocity of mobile robots. The primary focus of this study is to determine the robot's ego-motion using displacement field in temporally consecutive image pairs. In contrast to most previous approaches for estimating velocity, we employ a polynomial expansion based dense optical flow approach and propose a quadratic model based RANSAC refinement of flow fields to render our method more robust with respect to noise and outliers. Accordingly, techniques for geometrical transformation and interpretation of the inter-frame motion are presented. Advantages of our proposal are validated by real experimental results conducted on Pioneer robot.

  6. MRI-based intelligence quotient (IQ) estimation with sparse learning.

    PubMed

    Wang, Liye; Wee, Chong-Yaw; Suk, Heung-Il; Tang, Xiaoying; Shen, Dinggang

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a novel framework for IQ estimation using Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) data. In particular, we devise a new feature selection method based on an extended dirty model for jointly considering both element-wise sparsity and group-wise sparsity. Meanwhile, due to the absence of large dataset with consistent scanning protocols for the IQ estimation, we integrate multiple datasets scanned from different sites with different scanning parameters and protocols. In this way, there is large variability in these different datasets. To address this issue, we design a two-step procedure for 1) first identifying the possible scanning site for each testing subject and 2) then estimating the testing subject's IQ by using a specific estimator designed for that scanning site. We perform two experiments to test the performance of our method by using the MRI data collected from 164 typically developing children between 6 and 15 years old. In the first experiment, we use a multi-kernel Support Vector Regression (SVR) for estimating IQ values, and obtain an average correlation coefficient of 0.718 and also an average root mean square error of 8.695 between the true IQs and the estimated ones. In the second experiment, we use a single-kernel SVR for IQ estimation, and achieve an average correlation coefficient of 0.684 and an average root mean square error of 9.166. All these results show the effectiveness of using imaging data for IQ prediction, which is rarely done in the field according to our knowledge.

  7. On Estimating Force-freeness Based on Observed Magnetograms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, X. M.; Zhang, M.; Su, J. T.

    2017-01-01

    It is a common practice in the solar physics community to test whether or not measured photospheric or chromospheric vector magnetograms are force-free, using the Maxwell stress as a measure. Some previous studies have suggested that magnetic fields of active regions in the solar chromosphere are close to being force-free whereas there is no consistency among previous studies on whether magnetic fields of active regions in the solar photosphere are force-free or not. Here we use three kinds of representative magnetic fields (analytical force-free solutions, modeled solar-like force-free fields, and observed non-force-free fields) to discuss how measurement issues such as limited field of view (FOV), instrument sensitivity, and measurement error could affect the estimation of force-freeness based on observed magnetograms. Unlike previous studies that focus on discussing the effect of limited FOV or instrument sensitivity, our calculation shows that just measurement error alone can significantly influence the results of estimates of force-freeness, due to the fact that measurement errors in horizontal magnetic fields are usually ten times larger than those in vertical fields. This property of measurement errors, interacting with the particular form of a formula for estimating force-freeness, would result in wrong judgments of the force-freeness: a truly force-free field may be mistakenly estimated as being non-force-free and a truly non-force-free field may be estimated as being force-free. Our analysis calls for caution when interpreting estimates of force-freeness based on measured magnetograms, and also suggests that the true photospheric magnetic field may be further away from being force-free than it currently appears to be.

  8. Tyre pressure monitoring using a dynamical model-based estimator

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reina, Giulio; Gentile, Angelo; Messina, Arcangelo

    2015-04-01

    In the last few years, various control systems have been investigated in the automotive field with the aim of increasing the level of safety and stability, avoid roll-over, and customise handling characteristics. One critical issue connected with their integration is the lack of state and parameter information. As an example, vehicle handling depends to a large extent on tyre inflation pressure. When inflation pressure drops, handling and comfort performance generally deteriorate. In addition, it results in an increase in fuel consumption and in a decrease in lifetime. Therefore, it is important to keep tyres within the normal inflation pressure range. This paper introduces a model-based approach to estimate online tyre inflation pressure. First, basic vertical dynamic modelling of the vehicle is discussed. Then, a parameter estimation framework for dynamic analysis is presented. Several important vehicle parameters including tyre inflation pressure can be estimated using the estimated states. This method aims to work during normal driving using information from standard sensors only. On the one hand, the driver is informed about the inflation pressure and he is warned for sudden changes. On the other hand, accurate estimation of the vehicle states is available as possible input to onboard control systems.

  9. Spectrum-based kernel length estimation for Gaussian process classification.

    PubMed

    Wang, Liang; Li, Chuan

    2014-06-01

    Recent studies have shown that Gaussian process (GP) classification, a discriminative supervised learning approach, has achieved competitive performance in real applications compared with most state-of-the-art supervised learning methods. However, the problem of automatic model selection in GP classification, involving the kernel function form and the corresponding parameter values (which are unknown in advance), remains a challenge. To make GP classification a more practical tool, this paper presents a novel spectrum analysis-based approach for model selection by refining the GP kernel function to match the given input data. Specifically, we target the problem of GP kernel length scale estimation. Spectrums are first calculated analytically from the kernel function itself using the autocorrelation theorem as well as being estimated numerically from the training data themselves. Then, the kernel length scale is automatically estimated by equating the two spectrum values, i.e., the kernel function spectrum equals to the estimated training data spectrum. Compared with the classical Bayesian method for kernel length scale estimation via maximizing the marginal likelihood (which is time consuming and could suffer from multiple local optima), extensive experimental results on various data sets show that our proposed method is both efficient and accurate.

  10. Uav-Based Automatic Tree Growth Measurement for Biomass Estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karpina, M.; Jarząbek-Rychard, M.; Tymków, P.; Borkowski, A.

    2016-06-01

    Manual in-situ measurements of geometric tree parameters for the biomass volume estimation are time-consuming and economically non-effective. Photogrammetric techniques can be deployed in order to automate the measurement procedure. The purpose of the presented work is an automatic tree growth estimation based on Unmanned Aircraft Vehicle (UAV) imagery. The experiment was conducted in an agriculture test field with scots pine canopies. The data was collected using a Leica Aibotix X6V2 platform equipped with a Nikon D800 camera. Reference geometric parameters of selected sample plants were measured manually each week. In situ measurements were correlated with the UAV data acquisition. The correlation aimed at the investigation of optimal conditions for a flight and parameter settings for image acquisition. The collected images are processed in a state of the art tool resulting in a generation of dense 3D point clouds. The algorithm is developed in order to estimate geometric tree parameters from 3D points. Stem positions and tree tops are identified automatically in a cross section, followed by the calculation of tree heights. The automatically derived height values are compared to the reference measurements performed manually. The comparison allows for the evaluation of automatic growth estimation process. The accuracy achieved using UAV photogrammetry for tree heights estimation is about 5cm.

  11. Neuromorphic Event-Based 3D Pose Estimation

    PubMed Central

    Reverter Valeiras, David; Orchard, Garrick; Ieng, Sio-Hoi; Benosman, Ryad B.

    2016-01-01

    Pose estimation is a fundamental step in many artificial vision tasks. It consists of estimating the 3D pose of an object with respect to a camera from the object's 2D projection. Current state of the art implementations operate on images. These implementations are computationally expensive, especially for real-time applications. Scenes with fast dynamics exceeding 30–60 Hz can rarely be processed in real-time using conventional hardware. This paper presents a new method for event-based 3D object pose estimation, making full use of the high temporal resolution (1 μs) of asynchronous visual events output from a single neuromorphic camera. Given an initial estimate of the pose, each incoming event is used to update the pose by combining both 3D and 2D criteria. We show that the asynchronous high temporal resolution of the neuromorphic camera allows us to solve the problem in an incremental manner, achieving real-time performance at an update rate of several hundreds kHz on a conventional laptop. We show that the high temporal resolution of neuromorphic cameras is a key feature for performing accurate pose estimation. Experiments are provided showing the performance of the algorithm on real data, including fast moving objects, occlusions, and cases where the neuromorphic camera and the object are both in motion. PMID:26834547

  12. Comparisons of satellite-based models for estimating evapotranspiration fluxes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Consoli, S.; Vanella, D.

    2014-05-01

    Two different types of remote sensing-based techniques were applied to assess the mass and energy exchange process within the continuum soil-plant-atmosphere of a typical Mediterranean crop. The first approach computes a surface energy balance using the radiometric surface temperature (Ts) for estimating the sensible heat flux (H), and obtaining the evapotranspiration fluxes (ET) as a residual of the energy balance. In the paper, the performance of two different surface energy balance approaches (i.e. one-source and two-source (soil + vegetation)) was compared. The second approach uses vegetation indices (VIs), derived from the canopy reflectance, within the FAO-based soil water balance approach to estimate basal crop coefficients to adjust reference ET0 and compute crop ET. Outputs from these models were compared to fluxes of sensible (H) and latent (LE) heat directly measured by the Eddy Covariance method, through a long micrometeorological monitoring campaign carried out in the area of interest. The two-source (2S) model gave the best performance in terms of surface energy fluxes and ET rate estimation, although the overall performance of the three approaches was appreciable. The reflectance-based crop coefficient model has the advantages to do not require any upscaling of the instantaneous ET fluxes from the energy balance models to daily integrated ET. However, its results may be less sensitive to detect crop water stress conditions respect to approaches based on the radiometric surface temperature detection.

  13. Statistical properties of Fourier-based time-lag estimates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Epitropakis, A.; Papadakis, I. E.

    2016-06-01

    Context. The study of X-ray time-lag spectra in active galactic nuclei (AGN) is currently an active research area, since it has the potential to illuminate the physics and geometry of the innermost region (i.e. close to the putative super-massive black hole) in these objects. To obtain reliable information from these studies, the statistical properties of time-lags estimated from data must be known as accurately as possible. Aims: We investigated the statistical properties of Fourier-based time-lag estimates (i.e. based on the cross-periodogram), using evenly sampled time series with no missing points. Our aim is to provide practical "guidelines" on estimating time-lags that are minimally biased (i.e. whose mean is close to their intrinsic value) and have known errors. Methods: Our investigation is based on both analytical work and extensive numerical simulations. The latter consisted of generating artificial time series with various signal-to-noise ratios and sampling patterns/durations similar to those offered by AGN observations with present and past X-ray satellites. We also considered a range of different model time-lag spectra commonly assumed in X-ray analyses of compact accreting systems. Results: Discrete sampling, binning and finite light curve duration cause the mean of the time-lag estimates to have a smaller magnitude than their intrinsic values. Smoothing (i.e. binning over consecutive frequencies) of the cross-periodogram can add extra bias at low frequencies. The use of light curves with low signal-to-noise ratio reduces the intrinsic coherence, and can introduce a bias to the sample coherence, time-lag estimates, and their predicted error. Conclusions: Our results have direct implications for X-ray time-lag studies in AGN, but can also be applied to similar studies in other research fields. We find that: a) time-lags should be estimated at frequencies lower than ≈ 1/2 the Nyquist frequency to minimise the effects of discrete binning of the

  14. MODIS Based Estimation of Forest Aboveground Biomass in China.

    PubMed

    Yin, Guodong; Zhang, Yuan; Sun, Yan; Wang, Tao; Zeng, Zhenzhong; Piao, Shilong

    2015-01-01

    Accurate estimation of forest biomass C stock is essential to understand carbon cycles. However, current estimates of Chinese forest biomass are mostly based on inventory-based timber volumes and empirical conversion factors at the provincial scale, which could introduce large uncertainties in forest biomass estimation. Here we provide a data-driven estimate of Chinese forest aboveground biomass from 2001 to 2013 at a spatial resolution of 1 km by integrating a recently reviewed plot-level ground-measured forest aboveground biomass database with geospatial information from 1-km Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) dataset in a machine learning algorithm (the model tree ensemble, MTE). We show that Chinese forest aboveground biomass is 8.56 Pg C, which is mainly contributed by evergreen needle-leaf forests and deciduous broadleaf forests. The mean forest aboveground biomass density is 56.1 Mg C ha-1, with high values observed in temperate humid regions. The responses of forest aboveground biomass density to mean annual temperature are closely tied to water conditions; that is, negative responses dominate regions with mean annual precipitation less than 1300 mm y-1 and positive responses prevail in regions with mean annual precipitation higher than 2800 mm y-1. During the 2000s, the forests in China sequestered C by 61.9 Tg C y-1, and this C sink is mainly distributed in north China and may be attributed to warming climate, rising CO2 concentration, N deposition, and growth of young forests.

  15. MODIS Based Estimation of Forest Aboveground Biomass in China

    PubMed Central

    Sun, Yan; Wang, Tao; Zeng, Zhenzhong; Piao, Shilong

    2015-01-01

    Accurate estimation of forest biomass C stock is essential to understand carbon cycles. However, current estimates of Chinese forest biomass are mostly based on inventory-based timber volumes and empirical conversion factors at the provincial scale, which could introduce large uncertainties in forest biomass estimation. Here we provide a data-driven estimate of Chinese forest aboveground biomass from 2001 to 2013 at a spatial resolution of 1 km by integrating a recently reviewed plot-level ground-measured forest aboveground biomass database with geospatial information from 1-km Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) dataset in a machine learning algorithm (the model tree ensemble, MTE). We show that Chinese forest aboveground biomass is 8.56 Pg C, which is mainly contributed by evergreen needle-leaf forests and deciduous broadleaf forests. The mean forest aboveground biomass density is 56.1 Mg C ha−1, with high values observed in temperate humid regions. The responses of forest aboveground biomass density to mean annual temperature are closely tied to water conditions; that is, negative responses dominate regions with mean annual precipitation less than 1300 mm y−1 and positive responses prevail in regions with mean annual precipitation higher than 2800 mm y−1. During the 2000s, the forests in China sequestered C by 61.9 Tg C y−1, and this C sink is mainly distributed in north China and may be attributed to warming climate, rising CO2 concentration, N deposition, and growth of young forests. PMID:26115195

  16. Neural Net Gains Estimation Based on an Equivalent Model

    PubMed Central

    Aguilar Cruz, Karen Alicia; Medel Juárez, José de Jesús; Fernández Muñoz, José Luis; Esmeralda Vigueras Velázquez, Midory

    2016-01-01

    A model of an Equivalent Artificial Neural Net (EANN) describes the gains set, viewed as parameters in a layer, and this consideration is a reproducible process, applicable to a neuron in a neural net (NN). The EANN helps to estimate the NN gains or parameters, so we propose two methods to determine them. The first considers a fuzzy inference combined with the traditional Kalman filter, obtaining the equivalent model and estimating in a fuzzy sense the gains matrix A and the proper gain K into the traditional filter identification. The second develops a direct estimation in state space, describing an EANN using the expected value and the recursive description of the gains estimation. Finally, a comparison of both descriptions is performed; highlighting the analytical method describes the neural net coefficients in a direct form, whereas the other technique requires selecting into the Knowledge Base (KB) the factors based on the functional error and the reference signal built with the past information of the system. PMID:27366146

  17. Neural Net Gains Estimation Based on an Equivalent Model.

    PubMed

    Aguilar Cruz, Karen Alicia; Medel Juárez, José de Jesús; Fernández Muñoz, José Luis; Esmeralda Vigueras Velázquez, Midory

    2016-01-01

    A model of an Equivalent Artificial Neural Net (EANN) describes the gains set, viewed as parameters in a layer, and this consideration is a reproducible process, applicable to a neuron in a neural net (NN). The EANN helps to estimate the NN gains or parameters, so we propose two methods to determine them. The first considers a fuzzy inference combined with the traditional Kalman filter, obtaining the equivalent model and estimating in a fuzzy sense the gains matrix A and the proper gain K into the traditional filter identification. The second develops a direct estimation in state space, describing an EANN using the expected value and the recursive description of the gains estimation. Finally, a comparison of both descriptions is performed; highlighting the analytical method describes the neural net coefficients in a direct form, whereas the other technique requires selecting into the Knowledge Base (KB) the factors based on the functional error and the reference signal built with the past information of the system.

  18. A power function method for estimating base flow.

    PubMed

    Lott, Darline A; Stewart, Mark T

    2013-01-01

    Analytical base flow separation techniques are often used to determine the base flow contribution to total stream flow. Most analytical methods derive base flow from discharge records alone without using basin-specific variables other than basin area. This paper derives a power function for estimating base flow, the form being aQ(b) + cQ, an analytical method calibrated against an integrated basin variable, specific conductance, relating base flow to total discharge, and is consistent with observed mathematical behavior of dissolved solids in stream flow with varying discharge. Advantages of the method are being uncomplicated, reproducible, and applicable to hydrograph separation in basins with limited specific conductance data. The power function relationship between base flow and discharge holds over a wide range of basin areas. It better replicates base flow determined by mass balance methods than analytical methods such as filters or smoothing routines that are not calibrated to natural tracers or empirical basin and gauge-specific variables. Also, it can be used with discharge during periods without specific conductance values, including separating base flow from quick flow for single events. However, it may overestimate base flow during very high flow events. Application of geochemical mass balance and power function base flow separation methods to stream flow and specific conductance records from multiple gauges in the same basin suggests that analytical base flow separation methods must be calibrated at each gauge. Using average values of coefficients introduces a potentially significant and unknown error in base flow as compared with mass balance methods.

  19. Effects of initial moisture content of Korean traditional wheat-based fermentation starter nuruk on microbial abundance and diversity.

    PubMed

    Bal, Jyotiranjan; Yun, Suk-Hyun; Yeo, Soo-Hwan; Kim, Jung-Mi; Kim, Beom-Tae; Kim, Dae-Hyuk

    2017-03-01

    The brewing of makgeolli, one of Korea's most popular alcoholic beverages that is gaining popularity globally, is facilitated by nuruk, a traditional Korean cereal starter. The nuruk microbiome greatly influences the fermentation process as well as the nutritional, hygienic, and aromatic qualities of the product. This study is a continuation of our efforts to examine nuruk biodiversity at a depth previously unattainable. In this study, microfloral dynamics in wheat-based nuruk C, composed of traditional ingredients such as barley, green gram, and wheat and fermented under various internal moisture contents of 20% (C20), 26% (C26), and 30% (C30), was evaluated using 454 pyrosequencing during the 30-day fermentation process. Rarefaction analysis and alpha diversity parameters indicated adequate sampling. C20 showed the greatest fungal richness and diversity, C20 and C26 exhibited similar bacterial richness and diversity, while C30 had low fungal and bacterial richness. Fungal taxonomic assignments revealed that the initial moisture content caused selective enrichment of Aspergillus candidus with a decreasing trend during fermentation, whereas Saccharomycetales sp. exhibited increasing relative abundance with increasing moisture content from day 6 of the fermentation process. Depending on initial moisture level, changes in bacterial communities were also observed in the genera Streptomyces, Bacillus, and Staphylococcus, with decreasing trends whereas Saccharopolyspora exhibited a sigmoidal trend with the highest abundance in C26. These findings demonstrate the possible impact of initial moisture content of nuruk on microfloral richness, diversity, and dynamics; this study is thus a step toward our ultimate goal of enhancing the quality of nuruk.

  20. CO Component Estimation Based on the Independent Component Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ichiki, Kiyotomo; Kaji, Ryohei; Yamamoto, Hiroaki; Takeuchi, Tsutomu T.; Fukui, Yasuo

    2014-01-01

    Fast Independent Component Analysis (FastICA) is a component separation algorithm based on the levels of non-Gaussianity. Here we apply FastICA to the component separation problem of the microwave background, including carbon monoxide (CO) line emissions that are found to contaminate the PLANCK High Frequency Instrument (HFI) data. Specifically, we prepare 100 GHz, 143 GHz, and 217 GHz mock microwave sky maps, which include galactic thermal dust, NANTEN CO line, and the cosmic microwave background (CMB) emissions, and then estimate the independent components based on the kurtosis. We find that FastICA can successfully estimate the CO component as the first independent component in our deflection algorithm because its distribution has the largest degree of non-Gaussianity among the components. Thus, FastICA can be a promising technique to extract CO-like components without prior assumptions about their distributions and frequency dependences.

  1. CO component estimation based on the independent component analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Ichiki, Kiyotomo; Kaji, Ryohei; Yamamoto, Hiroaki; Takeuchi, Tsutomu T.; Fukui, Yasuo

    2014-01-01

    Fast Independent Component Analysis (FastICA) is a component separation algorithm based on the levels of non-Gaussianity. Here we apply FastICA to the component separation problem of the microwave background, including carbon monoxide (CO) line emissions that are found to contaminate the PLANCK High Frequency Instrument (HFI) data. Specifically, we prepare 100 GHz, 143 GHz, and 217 GHz mock microwave sky maps, which include galactic thermal dust, NANTEN CO line, and the cosmic microwave background (CMB) emissions, and then estimate the independent components based on the kurtosis. We find that FastICA can successfully estimate the CO component as the first independent component in our deflection algorithm because its distribution has the largest degree of non-Gaussianity among the components. Thus, FastICA can be a promising technique to extract CO-like components without prior assumptions about their distributions and frequency dependences.

  2. A novel rules based approach for estimating software birthmark.

    PubMed

    Nazir, Shah; Shahzad, Sara; Khan, Sher Afzal; Alias, Norma Binti; Anwar, Sajid

    2015-01-01

    Software birthmark is a unique quality of software to detect software theft. Comparing birthmarks of software can tell us whether a program or software is a copy of another. Software theft and piracy are rapidly increasing problems of copying, stealing, and misusing the software without proper permission, as mentioned in the desired license agreement. The estimation of birthmark can play a key role in understanding the effectiveness of a birthmark. In this paper, a new technique is presented to evaluate and estimate software birthmark based on the two most sought-after properties of birthmarks, that is, credibility and resilience. For this purpose, the concept of soft computing such as probabilistic and fuzzy computing has been taken into account and fuzzy logic is used to estimate properties of birthmark. The proposed fuzzy rule based technique is validated through a case study and the results show that the technique is successful in assessing the specified properties of the birthmark, its resilience and credibility. This, in turn, shows how much effort will be required to detect the originality of the software based on its birthmark.

  3. A Novel Rules Based Approach for Estimating Software Birthmark

    PubMed Central

    Binti Alias, Norma; Anwar, Sajid

    2015-01-01

    Software birthmark is a unique quality of software to detect software theft. Comparing birthmarks of software can tell us whether a program or software is a copy of another. Software theft and piracy are rapidly increasing problems of copying, stealing, and misusing the software without proper permission, as mentioned in the desired license agreement. The estimation of birthmark can play a key role in understanding the effectiveness of a birthmark. In this paper, a new technique is presented to evaluate and estimate software birthmark based on the two most sought-after properties of birthmarks, that is, credibility and resilience. For this purpose, the concept of soft computing such as probabilistic and fuzzy computing has been taken into account and fuzzy logic is used to estimate properties of birthmark. The proposed fuzzy rule based technique is validated through a case study and the results show that the technique is successful in assessing the specified properties of the birthmark, its resilience and credibility. This, in turn, shows how much effort will be required to detect the originality of the software based on its birthmark. PMID:25945363

  4. SPECTRAL data-based estimation of soil heat flux

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Singh, R.K.; Irmak, A.; Walter-Shea, Elizabeth; Verma, S.B.; Suyker, A.E.

    2011-01-01

    Numerous existing spectral-based soil heat flux (G) models have shown wide variation in performance for maize and soybean cropping systems in Nebraska, indicating the need for localized calibration and model development. The objectives of this article are to develop a semi-empirical model to estimate G from a normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and net radiation (Rn) for maize (Zea mays L.) and soybean (Glycine max L.) fields in the Great Plains, and present the suitability of the developed model to estimate G under similar and different soil and management conditions. Soil heat fluxes measured in both irrigated and rainfed fields in eastern and south-central Nebraska were used for model development and validation. An exponential model that uses NDVI and Rn was found to be the best to estimate G based on r2 values. The effect of geographic location, crop, and water management practices were used to develop semi-empirical models under four case studies. Each case study has the same exponential model structure but a different set of coefficients and exponents to represent the crop, soil, and management practices. Results showed that the semi-empirical models can be used effectively for G estimation for nearby fields with similar soil properties for independent years, regardless of differences in crop type, crop rotation, and irrigation practices, provided that the crop residue from the previous year is more than 4000 kg ha-1. The coefficients calibrated from particular fields can be used at nearby fields in order to capture temporal variation in G. However, there is a need for further investigation of the models to account for the interaction effects of crop rotation and irrigation. Validation at an independent site having different soil and crop management practices showed the limitation of the semi-empirical model in estimating G under different soil and environment conditions.

  5. Validation of Satellite-based Rainfall Estimates of Hurricane

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nourozi, N.; Mahani, S.; Khanbilvardi, R.

    2006-05-01

    Severe storms such as hurricanes and tornadoes cause devastating damages, almost every year, over a large section of the United States. More accurate forecasting intensity and track of a heavy storm can help to reduce if not to prevent its damages to lives, infrastructure, and economy. Estimating accurate high resolution quantitative precipitation (QPE) from a hurricane, required to improve the forecasting and warning capabilities, is still a challenging problem because of physical characteristics of the hurricane even when it is still over the ocean. Satellite imagery seems to be a valuable source of information for estimating and forecasting heavy precipitation and also flash floods, particularly for over the oceans where the traditional ground-based gauge and radar sources cannot provide any information. To improve the capability of a rainfall retrieval algorithm for estimating QPE of severe storms, its product is evaluated in this study. High (hourly 4km x 4km) resolutions satellite infrared-based rainfall products, from the NESDIS Hydro- Estimator (HE) and also PERSIANN (Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using an Artificial Neural Networks) algorithms, have been tested against NEXRAD stage-IV and rain gauge observations in this project. Three strong hurricanes: Charley, Jeanne, and Frances that caused devastating damages over Florida in the summer 2004 and also from summer 2005 hurricane Katrina, hurricane Wilma, and hurricane Ophelia have been considered to be investigated. Preliminary results demonstrate that for all hurricanes except for hurricane Charley, HE tends to underestimate rain rates especially when NEXRAD shows a heavy storm. In hurricanes Frances, Jeanne, and Wilma there are picks of heavy storm, which HE shows a big underestimation on those picks. In hurricane Charley HE tends to overestimate the amount of storm in general.

  6. Estimating Evapotranspiration Using an Observation Based Terrestrial Water Budget

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rodell, Matthew; McWilliams, Eric B.; Famiglietti, James S.; Beaudoing, Hiroko K.; Nigro, Joseph

    2011-01-01

    Evapotranspiration (ET) is difficult to measure at the scales of climate models and climate variability. While satellite retrieval algorithms do exist, their accuracy is limited by the sparseness of in situ observations available for calibration and validation, which themselves may be unrepresentative of 500m and larger scale satellite footprints and grid pixels. Here, we use a combination of satellite and ground-based observations to close the water budgets of seven continental scale river basins (Mackenzie, Fraser, Nelson, Mississippi, Tocantins, Danube, and Ubangi), estimating mean ET as a residual. For any river basin, ET must equal total precipitation minus net runoff minus the change in total terrestrial water storage (TWS), in order for mass to be conserved. We make use of precipitation from two global observation-based products, archived runoff data, and TWS changes from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment satellite mission. We demonstrate that while uncertainty in the water budget-based estimates of monthly ET is often too large for those estimates to be useful, the uncertainty in the mean annual cycle is small enough that it is practical for evaluating other ET products. Here, we evaluate five land surface model simulations, two operational atmospheric analyses, and a recent global reanalysis product based on our results. An important outcome is that the water budget-based ET time series in two tropical river basins, one in Brazil and the other in central Africa, exhibit a weak annual cycle, which may help to resolve debate about the strength of the annual cycle of ET in such regions and how ET is constrained throughout the year. The methods described will be useful for water and energy budget studies, weather and climate model assessments, and satellite-based ET retrieval optimization.

  7. Rectal temperature-based death time estimation in infants.

    PubMed

    Igari, Yui; Hosokai, Yoshiyuki; Funayama, Masato

    2016-03-01

    In determining the time of death in infants based on rectal temperature, the same methods used in adults are generally used. However, whether the methods for adults are suitable for infants is unclear. In this study, we examined the following 3 methods in 20 infant death cases: computer simulation of rectal temperature based on the infinite cylinder model (Ohno's method), computer-based double exponential approximation based on Marshall and Hoare's double exponential model with Henssge's parameter determination (Henssge's method), and computer-based collinear approximation based on extrapolation of the rectal temperature curve (collinear approximation). The interval between the last time the infant was seen alive and the time that he/she was found dead was defined as the death time interval and compared with the estimated time of death. In Ohno's method, 7 cases were within the death time interval, and the average deviation in the other 12 cases was approximately 80 min. The results of both Henssge's method and collinear approximation were apparently inferior to the results of Ohno's method. The corrective factor was set within the range of 0.7-1.3 in Henssge's method, and a modified program was newly developed to make it possible to change the corrective factors. Modification A, in which the upper limit of the corrective factor range was set as the maximum value in each body weight, produced the best results: 8 cases were within the death time interval, and the average deviation in the other 12 cases was approximately 80min. There was a possibility that the influence of thermal isolation on the actual infants was stronger than that previously shown by Henssge. We conclude that Ohno's method and Modification A are useful for death time estimation in infants. However, it is important to accept the estimated time of death with certain latitude considering other circumstances.

  8. Homography Based Egomotion Estimation with a Common Direction.

    PubMed

    Saurer, Olivier; Vasseur, Pascal; Boutteau, Remi; Demonceaux, Cedric; Pollefeys, Marc; Fraundorfer, Friedrich

    2017-02-01

    In this paper, we explore the different minimal solutions for egomotion estimation of a camera based on homography knowing the gravity vector between calibrated images. These solutions depend on the prior knowledge about the reference plane used by the homography. We then demonstrate that the number of matched points can vary from two to three and that a direct closed-form solution or a Gröbner basis based solution can be derived according to this plane. Many experimental results on synthetic and real sequences in indoor and outdoor environments show the efficiency and the robustness of our approach compared to standard methods.

  9. Abundance and composition of indigenous bacterial communities in a multi-step biofiltration-based drinking water treatment plant.

    PubMed

    Lautenschlager, Karin; Hwang, Chiachi; Ling, Fangqiong; Liu, Wen-Tso; Boon, Nico; Köster, Oliver; Egli, Thomas; Hammes, Frederik

    2014-10-01

    Indigenous bacterial communities are essential for biofiltration processes in drinking water treatment systems. In this study, we examined the microbial community composition and abundance of three different biofilter types (rapid sand, granular activated carbon, and slow sand filters) and their respective effluents in a full-scale, multi-step treatment plant (Zürich, CH). Detailed analysis of organic carbon degradation underpinned biodegradation as the primary function of the biofilter biomass. The biomass was present in concentrations ranging between 2-5 × 10(15) cells/m(3) in all filters but was phylogenetically, enzymatically and metabolically diverse. Based on 16S rRNA gene-based 454 pyrosequencing analysis for microbial community composition, similar microbial taxa (predominantly Proteobacteria, Planctomycetes, Acidobacteria, Bacteriodetes, Nitrospira and Chloroflexi) were present in all biofilters and in their respective effluents, but the ratio of microbial taxa was different in each filter type. This change was also reflected in the cluster analysis, which revealed a change of 50-60% in microbial community composition between the different filter types. This study documents the direct influence of the filter biomass on the microbial community composition of the final drinking water, particularly when the water is distributed without post-disinfection. The results provide new insights on the complexity of indigenous bacteria colonizing drinking water systems, especially in different biofilters of a multi-step treatment plant.

  10. A UKF-based orientation estimator for the Atlas platform

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Linseman, Jesse

    The Atlas platform being developed at Carleton University is fully dexterous and unconstrained in the rotational sense. Currently, there are sensors capable of measuring the orientation of the Atlas sphere, however each sensor has certain limitations. Having concomitant orientation measurements from two sensors sets up an opportunity to improve the overall accuracy of the orientation estimate. A method for fusing two measurements can take advantage of this in order to improve the orientation estimate. An algorithm is necessary in order to properly fuse measurements from two sensors, and the algorithm needs to be able to handle rotations characteristic of the Atlas platform. This dissertation presents a novel algorithm for improving estimation of the orientation of the Atlas platform using an adapted unscented Kalman filter (UKF). Two sensors are used due to their complimentary characteristics. The first is the inertial orientation sensor (IOS), which is a common low cost inertial measurement unit (IMU) used for high frequency attitude sensing, that will typically perform poorly over time due to high drift. A second absolute sensor, the Atlas visual orienting sensor (VOS), is a digital camera that operates with a lower frequency, and is used to correct for the inertial sensor's drift. The VOS measures the absolute orientation of the platform, processes the images, and obtains an estimated orientation quaternion, but at a slower frequency of approximately 20 Hz, compared to the IOS which operates at 76 Hz. This thesis outlines the development of a quaternion based indirect UKF for sensor fusion with sensor error estimation and out of sequence measurement (OOSM) handling. The sensor fusion filter obtains an improved estimate given measurements from these two sensors. Due to the unbounded orientation workspace of the platform, representational singularities associated with Euler angles are overcome by utilizing quaternions. IOS stabilized measurements act as direct

  11. Ratio-based estimators for a change point in persistence.

    PubMed

    Halunga, Andreea G; Osborn, Denise R

    2012-11-01

    We study estimation of the date of change in persistence, from [Formula: see text] to [Formula: see text] or vice versa. Contrary to statements in the original papers, our analytical results establish that the ratio-based break point estimators of Kim [Kim, J.Y., 2000. Detection of change in persistence of a linear time series. Journal of Econometrics 95, 97-116], Kim et al. [Kim, J.Y., Belaire-Franch, J., Badillo Amador, R., 2002. Corringendum to "Detection of change in persistence of a linear time series". Journal of Econometrics 109, 389-392] and Busetti and Taylor [Busetti, F., Taylor, A.M.R., 2004. Tests of stationarity against a change in persistence. Journal of Econometrics 123, 33-66] are inconsistent when a mean (or other deterministic component) is estimated for the process. In such cases, the estimators converge to random variables with upper bound given by the true break date when persistence changes from [Formula: see text] to [Formula: see text]. A Monte Carlo study confirms the large sample downward bias and also finds substantial biases in moderate sized samples, partly due to properties at the end points of the search interval.

  12. Yield estimation of sugarcane based on agrometeorological-spectral models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rudorff, Bernardo Friedrich Theodor; Batista, Getulio Teixeira

    1990-01-01

    This work has the objective to assess the performance of a yield estimation model for sugarcane (Succharum officinarum). The model uses orbital gathered spectral data along with yield estimated from an agrometeorological model. The test site includes the sugarcane plantations of the Barra Grande Plant located in Lencois Paulista municipality in Sao Paulo State. Production data of four crop years were analyzed. Yield data observed in the first crop year (1983/84) were regressed against spectral and agrometeorological data of that same year. This provided the model to predict the yield for the following crop year i.e., 1984/85. The model to predict the yield of subsequent years (up to 1987/88) were developed similarly, incorporating all previous years data. The yield estimations obtained from these models explained 69, 54, and 50 percent of the yield variation in the 1984/85, 1985/86, and 1986/87 crop years, respectively. The accuracy of yield estimations based on spectral data only (vegetation index model) and on agrometeorological data only (agrometeorological model) were also investigated.

  13. AATSR Based Volcanic Ash Plume Top Height Estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Virtanen, Timo H.; Kolmonen, Pekka; Sogacheva, Larisa; Sundstrom, Anu-Maija; Rodriguez, Edith; de Leeuw, Gerrit

    2015-11-01

    The AATSR Correlation Method (ACM) height estimation algorithm is presented. The algorithm uses Advanced Along Track Scanning Radiometer (AATSR) satellite data to detect volcanic ash plumes and to estimate the plume top height. The height estimate is based on the stereo-viewing capability of the AATSR instrument, which allows to determine the parallax between the satellite's nadir and 55◦ forward views, and thus the corresponding height. AATSR provides an advantage compared to other stereo-view satellite instruments: with AATSR it is possible to detect ash plumes using brightness temperature difference between thermal infrared (TIR) channels centered at 11 and 12 μm. The automatic ash detection makes the algorithm efficient in processing large quantities of data: the height estimate is calculated only for the ash-flagged pixels. Besides ash plumes, the algorithm can be applied to any elevated feature with sufficient contrast to the background, such as smoke and dust plumes and clouds. The ACM algorithm can be applied to the Sea and Land Surface Temperature Radiometer (SLSTR), scheduled for launch at the end of 2015.

  14. A novel ULA-based geometry for improving AOA estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shirvani-Moghaddam, Shahriar; Akbari, Farida

    2011-12-01

    Due to relatively simple implementation, Uniform Linear Array (ULA) is a popular geometry for array signal processing. Despite this advantage, it does not have a uniform performance in all directions and Angle of Arrival (AOA) estimation performance degrades considerably in the angles close to endfire. In this article, a new configuration is proposed which can solve this problem. Proposed Array (PA) configuration adds two elements to the ULA in top and bottom of the array axis. By extending signal model of the ULA to the new proposed ULA-based array, AOA estimation performance has been compared in terms of angular accuracy and resolution threshold through two well-known AOA estimation algorithms, MUSIC and MVDR. In both algorithms, Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of the detected angles descends as the input Signal to Noise Ratio (SNR) increases. Simulation results show that the proposed array geometry introduces uniform accurate performance and higher resolution in middle angles as well as border ones. The PA also presents less RMSE than the ULA in endfire directions. Therefore, the proposed array offers better performance for the border angles with almost the same array size and simplicity in both MUSIC and MVDR algorithms with respect to the conventional ULA. In addition, AOA estimation performance of the PA geometry is compared with two well-known 2D-array geometries: L-shape and V-shape, and acceptable results are obtained with equivalent or lower complexity.

  15. Basin structure of optimization based state and parameter estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schumann-Bischoff, Jan; Parlitz, Ulrich; Abarbanel, Henry D. I.; Kostuk, Mark; Rey, Daniel; Eldridge, Michael; Luther, Stefan

    2015-05-01

    Most data based state and parameter estimation methods require suitable initial values or guesses to achieve convergence to the desired solution, which typically is a global minimum of some cost function. Unfortunately, however, other stable solutions (e.g., local minima) may exist and provide suboptimal or even wrong estimates. Here, we demonstrate for a 9-dimensional Lorenz-96 model how to characterize the basin size of the global minimum when applying some particular optimization based estimation algorithm. We compare three different strategies for generating suitable initial guesses, and we investigate the dependence of the solution on the given trajectory segment (underlying the measured time series). To address the question of how many state variables have to be measured for optimal performance, different types of multivariate time series are considered consisting of 1, 2, or 3 variables. Based on these time series, the local observability of state variables and parameters of the Lorenz-96 model is investigated and confirmed using delay coordinates. This result is in good agreement with the observation that correct state and parameter estimation results are obtained if the optimization algorithm is initialized with initial guesses close to the true solution. In contrast, initialization with other exact solutions of the model equations (different from the true solution used to generate the time series) typically fails, i.e., the optimization procedure ends up in local minima different from the true solution. Initialization using random values in a box around the attractor exhibits success rates depending on the number of observables and the available time series (trajectory segment).

  16. Basin structure of optimization based state and parameter estimation.

    PubMed

    Schumann-Bischoff, Jan; Parlitz, Ulrich; Abarbanel, Henry D I; Kostuk, Mark; Rey, Daniel; Eldridge, Michael; Luther, Stefan

    2015-05-01

    Most data based state and parameter estimation methods require suitable initial values or guesses to achieve convergence to the desired solution, which typically is a global minimum of some cost function. Unfortunately, however, other stable solutions (e.g., local minima) may exist and provide suboptimal or even wrong estimates. Here, we demonstrate for a 9-dimensional Lorenz-96 model how to characterize the basin size of the global minimum when applying some particular optimization based estimation algorithm. We compare three different strategies for generating suitable initial guesses, and we investigate the dependence of the solution on the given trajectory segment (underlying the measured time series). To address the question of how many state variables have to be measured for optimal performance, different types of multivariate time series are considered consisting of 1, 2, or 3 variables. Based on these time series, the local observability of state variables and parameters of the Lorenz-96 model is investigated and confirmed using delay coordinates. This result is in good agreement with the observation that correct state and parameter estimation results are obtained if the optimization algorithm is initialized with initial guesses close to the true solution. In contrast, initialization with other exact solutions of the model equations (different from the true solution used to generate the time series) typically fails, i.e., the optimization procedure ends up in local minima different from the true solution. Initialization using random values in a box around the attractor exhibits success rates depending on the number of observables and the available time series (trajectory segment).

  17. Improved Goldstein Interferogram Filter Based on Local Fringe Frequency Estimation

    PubMed Central

    Feng, Qingqing; Xu, Huaping; Wu, Zhefeng; You, Yanan; Liu, Wei; Ge, Shiqi

    2016-01-01

    The quality of an interferogram, which is limited by various phase noise, will greatly affect the further processes of InSAR, such as phase unwrapping. Interferometric SAR (InSAR) geophysical measurements’, such as height or displacement, phase filtering is therefore an essential step. In this work, an improved Goldstein interferogram filter is proposed to suppress the phase noise while preserving the fringe edges. First, the proposed adaptive filter step, performed before frequency estimation, is employed to improve the estimation accuracy. Subsequently, to preserve the fringe characteristics, the estimated fringe frequency in each fixed filtering patch is removed from the original noisy phase. Then, the residual phase is smoothed based on the modified Goldstein filter with its parameter alpha dependent on both the coherence map and the residual phase frequency. Finally, the filtered residual phase and the removed fringe frequency are combined to generate the filtered interferogram, with the loss of signal minimized while reducing the noise level. The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by experimental results based on both simulated and real data. PMID:27886081

  18. Mortality estimation based on Business as Usual Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pozzer, Andrea; Lelieveld, Jos; Barlas, Ceren

    2013-04-01

    Air pollution by fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone (O3) has increased strongly with industrialization and urbanization. Epidemiological studies have shown that these pollutants increase lung cancer, cardiopulmonary and respiratory mortality. The atmospheric chemistry general circulation model EMAC has been used to estimate the concentration of such pollutants in recent and future years (2005, 2010, 2025 and 2050), based on a Business as Usual scenario. The emission scenario assumes that population and economic growth largely determine energy consumption and consequent pollution sources ("business as usual"). Based on the modeled pollutants concentrations and the UN estimates of population growth in the future, we assessed the premature mortality and the years of human life lost (YLL) caused by anthropogenic PM2.5 and O3 for epidemiological regions defined by the World Health Organization. The premature mortality for people of 30 years and older were estimated using a health impact function using parameters derived from epidemiological studies. Our results suggest that with a Business as Usual scenario, the ratio between mortality and population would increase of ~ 50% by 2050. This ratio, together with the increase of world population, would lead by the year 2050 to 8.9 millions premature deaths, equivalent to 79 millions of YYL.

  19. Optimal estimation of spectral reflectance based on metamerism

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chou, Tzren-Ru; Lin, Wei-Ju

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, we proposed an accurate estimation method for spectral reflectance of objects captured in an image. The spectral reflectance is simply modeled by a linear combination of three basic spectrums of R, G, and B colors respectively, named as spectral reflective bases of objects, which are acquired by solving a linear system based on the principle of color metamerism. Some experiments were performed to evaluate the accuracy of the estimated spectral reflectance of objects. The average mean square error of 24 colors in Macbeth checker between we simulated and the measured is 0.0866, and the maximum is 0.310. In addition, the average color difference of the 24 colors is less than 1.5 under the D65 illuminant. There are 13 colors having their color difference values less than 1, and other 8 colors having the values during the range of 1 and 2. Only three colors are relatively larger, with the differences of 2.558, 4.130 and 2.569, from the colors of No. 2, No. 13, and No. 18 in Macbeth checker respectively. Furthermore, the computational cost of this spectral estimation is very low and suitable for many practical applications in real time.

  20. Analytical phase-tracking-based strain estimation for ultrasound elasticity.

    PubMed

    Yuan, Lili; Pedersen, Peder C

    2015-01-01

    A new strain estimator for quasi-static elastography is presented, based on tracking of the analytical signal phase as a function of the external force. Two implementations are introduced: zero-phase search with moving window (SMW) and zero-phase band tracking using connected component labeling (CCL). Low analytical signal amplitude caused by local destructive interference is associated with large error in the phase trajectories, and amplitude thresholding can thus be used to terminate the phase tracking along a particular path. Interpolation is then applied to estimate displacement in the eliminated path. The paper describes first a mathematical analysis based on 1-D multi-scatter modeling, followed by a statistical study of the displacement and strain error. Simulation and experiment with an inhomogeneous phantom indicate that SMW and CCL are capable of reliably estimating tissue displacement and strain over a larger range of deformation than standard timedomain cross-correlation (SCC). Results also show that SMW is roughly 40 times faster than SCC with comparable or even better accuracy. CCL is slower than SMW, but more noise robust. Simulation assessment at compression level 3% and 6% with SNR 20 dB demonstrates average strain error for SMW and CCL of 10%, whereas SCC achieves 18%.

  1. Hierarchical bilateral filtering based disparity estimation for view synthesis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shin, Hong-Chang; Lee, Gwangsoon; Cheong, Won-Sik; Hur, Namho

    2016-06-01

    In this paper, we introduce a high efficient and practical disparity estimation using hierarchical bilateral filtering for real-time view synthesis. The proposed method is based on hierarchical stereo matching with hardware-efficient bilateral filtering. Hardware-efficient bilateral filtering is different from the exact bilateral filter. The purpose of the method is to design an edge-preserving filter that can be efficiently parallelized on hardware. The proposed hierarchical bilateral filtering based disparity estimation is essentially a coarse-to-fine use of stereo matching with bilateral filtering. It works as follows: firstly, the hierarchical image pyramid are constructed; the multi-scale algorithm then starts by applying a local stereo matching to the downsampled images at the coarsest level of the hierarchy. After the local stereo matching, the estimated disparity map is refined with the bilateral filtering. And then the refined disparity map will be adaptively upsampled to the next finer level. The upsampled disparity map used as a prior of the corresponding local stereo matching at the next level, and filtered and so on. The method we propose is essentially a combination of hierarchical stereo matching and hardware-efficient bilateral filtering. As a result, visual comparison using real-world stereoscopic video clips shows that the method gives better results than one of state-of-art methods in terms of robustness and computation time.

  2. Marker-Based Estimation of Genetic Parameters in Genomics

    PubMed Central

    Hu, Zhiqiu; Yang, Rong-Cai

    2014-01-01

    Linear mixed model (LMM) analysis has been recently used extensively for estimating additive genetic variances and narrow-sense heritability in many genomic studies. While the LMM analysis is computationally less intensive than the Bayesian algorithms, it remains infeasible for large-scale genomic data sets. In this paper, we advocate the use of a statistical procedure known as symmetric differences squared (SDS) as it may serve as a viable alternative when the LMM methods have difficulty or fail to work with large datasets. The SDS procedure is a general and computationally simple method based only on the least squares regression analysis. We carry out computer simulations and empirical analyses to compare the SDS procedure with two commonly used LMM-based procedures. Our results show that the SDS method is not as good as the LMM methods for small data sets, but it becomes progressively better and can match well with the precision of estimation by the LMM methods for data sets with large sample sizes. Its major advantage is that with larger and larger samples, it continues to work with the increasing precision of estimation while the commonly used LMM methods are no longer able to work under our current typical computing capacity. Thus, these results suggest that the SDS method can serve as a viable alternative particularly when analyzing ‘big’ genomic data sets. PMID:25025305

  3. An estimate of the PH3, CH3D, and GeH4 abundances on Jupiter from the Voyager IRIS data at 4.5 microns

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Drossart, P.; Encrenaz, T.; Combes, M.; Kunde, V.; Hanel, R.

    1982-01-01

    No evidence is found for large scale phosphine abundance variations over Jovian latitudes between -30 and +30 deg, in PH3, CH3D, and GeH4 abundances derived from the 2100-2250/cm region of the Voyager 1 IRIS spectra. The PH3/H2 value of (4.5 + or - 1.5) X 10 to the -7th derived from atmospheric regions corresponding to 170-200 K is 0.75 + or - 0.25 times the solar value, and suggests that the PH3/H2 ratio on Jupiter decreases with atmospheric pressure upon comparison with other PH3 determinations at 10 microns. In the 200-250 K region, CH3D/H2 and GeH4/H2 ratios of 2.0 X 10 to the -7th and 1.0 X 10 to the -9th, respectively, are derived within a factor of 2.0. Assuming a C/H value of 0.001, as derived from Voyager, the CH3D/H2 ratio obtained in this study implies a D/H ratio of 0.000018. This is in agreement with the interstellar medium value.

  4. Intensity-Based Registration for Lung Motion Estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cao, Kunlin; Ding, Kai; Amelon, Ryan E.; Du, Kaifang; Reinhardt, Joseph M.; Raghavan, Madhavan L.; Christensen, Gary E.

    Image registration plays an important role within pulmonary image analysis. The task of registration is to find the spatial mapping that brings two images into alignment. Registration algorithms designed for matching 4D lung scans or two 3D scans acquired at different inflation levels can catch the temporal changes in position and shape of the region of interest. Accurate registration is critical to post-analysis of lung mechanics and motion estimation. In this chapter, we discuss lung-specific adaptations of intensity-based registration methods for 3D/4D lung images and review approaches for assessing registration accuracy. Then we introduce methods for estimating tissue motion and studying lung mechanics. Finally, we discuss methods for assessing and quantifying specific volume change, specific ventilation, strain/ stretch information and lobar sliding.

  5. Differential entropy feature for EEG-based vigilance estimation.

    PubMed

    Shi, Li-Chen; Jiao, Ying-Ying; Lu, Bao-Liang

    2013-01-01

    This paper proposes a novel feature called differential entropy for EEG-based vigilance estimation. By mathematical derivation, we find an interesting relationship between the proposed differential entropy and the existing logarithm energy spectrum. We present a physical interpretation of the logarithm energy spectrum which is widely used in EEG signal analysis. To evaluate the performance of the proposed differential entropy feature for vigilance estimation, we compare it with four existing features on an EEG data set of twenty-three subjects. All of the features are projected to the same dimension by principal component analysis algorithm. Experiment results show that differential entropy is the most accurate and stable EEG feature to reflect the vigilance changes.

  6. Estimation of Convective Momentum Fluxes Using Satellite-Based Methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jewett, C.; Mecikalski, J. R.

    2009-12-01

    Research and case studies have shown that convection plays a significant role in large-scale environmental circulations. Convective momentum fluxes (CMFs) have been studied for many years using in-situ and aircraft measurements, along with numerical simulations. However, despite these successes, little work has been conducted on methods that use satellite remote sensing as a tool to diagnose these fluxes. Uses of satellite data have the capability to provide continuous analysis across regions void of ground-based remote sensing. Therefore, the project's overall goal is to develop a synergistic approach for retrieving CMFs using a collection of instruments including GOES, TRMM, CloudSat, MODIS, and QuikScat. However, this particular study will focus on the work using TRMM and QuikScat, and the methodology of using CloudSat. Sound research has already been conducted for computing CMFs using the GOES instruments (Jewett and Mecikalski 2009, submitted to J. Geophys. Res.). Using satellite-derived winds, namely mesoscale atmospheric motion vectors (MAMVs) as described by Bedka and Mecikalski (2005), one can obtain the actual winds occurring within a convective environment as perturbed by convection. Surface outflow boundaries and upper-tropospheric anvil outflow will produce “perturbation” winds on smaller, convective scales. Combined with estimated vertical motion retrieved using geostationary infrared imagery, CMFs were estimated using MAMVs, with an average profile being calculated across a convective regime or a domain covered by active storms. This study involves estimating draft-tilt from TRMM PR radar reflectivity and sub-cloud base fluxes using QuikScat data. The “slope” of falling hydrometeors (relative to Earth) in data are related to u', v' and w' winds within convection. The main up- and down-drafts within convection are described by precipitation patterns (Mecikalski 2003). Vertical motion estimates are made using model results for deep convection

  7. REVIEW: Can habitat selection predict abundance?

    PubMed

    Boyce, Mark S; Johnson, Chris J; Merrill, Evelyn H; Nielsen, Scott E; Solberg, Erling J; van Moorter, Bram

    2016-01-01

    Habitats have substantial influence on the distribution and abundance of animals. Animals' selective movement yields their habitat use. Animals generally are more abundant in habitats that are selected most strongly. Models of habitat selection can be used to distribute animals on the landscape or their distribution can be modelled based on data of habitat use, occupancy, intensity of use or counts of animals. When the population is at carrying capacity or in an ideal-free distribution, habitat selection and related metrics of habitat use can be used to estimate abundance. If the population is not at equilibrium, models have the flexibility to incorporate density into models of habitat selection; but abundance might be influenced by factors influencing fitness that are not directly related to habitat thereby compromising the use of habitat-based models for predicting population size. Scale and domain of the sampling frame, both in time and space, are crucial considerations limiting application of these models. Ultimately, identifying reliable models for predicting abundance from habitat data requires an understanding of the mechanisms underlying population regulation and limitation.

  8. Estimating equations for biomarker based exposure estimation under non-steady-state conditions.

    PubMed

    Bartell, Scott M; Johnson, Wesley O

    2011-06-13

    Unrealistic steady-state assumptions are often used to estimate toxicant exposure rates from biomarkers. A biomarker may instead be modeled as a weighted sum of historical time-varying exposures. Estimating equations are derived for a zero-inflated gamma distribution for daily exposures with a known exposure frequency. Simulation studies suggest that the estimating equations can provide accurate estimates of exposure magnitude at any reasonable sample size, and reasonable estimates of the exposure variance at larger sample sizes.

  9. Array-based GNSS Ionospheric Sensing: Estimability and Precision Analyses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Teunissen, Peter

    2016-04-01

    Array-based GNSS Ionospheric Sensing: Estimability and Precision Analyses PJG Teunissen1,2, A Khodabandeh1 and B Zhang1 1GNSS Research Centre, Curtin University, Perth, Australia 2Geoscience and Remote Sensing, Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands Introduction: The Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) have proved to be an effective means of measuring the Earth's ionosphere. The well-known geometry-free linear combinations of the GNSS data serve as the input of an external ionospheric model to capture both the spatial and temporal characteristics of the ionosphere. Next to the slant ionospheric delays experienced by the GNSS antennas, the geometry-free combinations also contain additional unknown delays that are caused by the presence of the carrier-phase ambiguous cycles and/or the code instrumental delays. That the geometry-free combinations, without an external ionospheric model, cannot unbiasedly determine the slant ionospheric delays reveals the lack of information content in the GNSS data. Motivation and objectives: With the advent of modernized multi-frequency signals, one is confronted with many different combinations of the GNSS data that are capable of sensing the ionosphere. Owing to such diversity and the lack of information content in the GNSS data, various estimable ionospheric delays of different interpretations (and of different precision) can therefore be formed. How such estimable ionospheric delays should be interpreted and the extent to which they contribute to the precision of the unbiased slant ionosphere are the topics of this contribution. Approach and results: In this contribution, we apply S-system theory to study the estimability and precision of the estimable slant ionospheric delays that are measured by the multi-frequency GNSS data. Two different S-systems are presented, leading to two different estimable parameters of different precision: 1) the phase-driven ionospheric delays and 2) the code-driven ionospheric delays

  10. A History-based Estimation for LHCb job requirements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rauschmayr, Nathalie

    2015-12-01

    The main goal of a Workload Management System (WMS) is to find and allocate resources for the given tasks. The more and better job information the WMS receives, the easier will be to accomplish its task, which directly translates into higher utilization of resources. Traditionally, the information associated with each job, like expected runtime, is defined beforehand by the Production Manager in best case and fixed arbitrary values by default. In the case of LHCb's Workload Management System no mechanisms are provided which automate the estimation of job requirements. As a result, much more CPU time is normally requested than actually needed. Particularly, in the context of multicore jobs this presents a major problem, since single- and multicore jobs shall share the same resources. Consequently, grid sites need to rely on estimations given by the VOs in order to not decrease the utilization of their worker nodes when making multicore job slots available. The main reason for going to multicore jobs is the reduction of the overall memory footprint. Therefore, it also needs to be studied how memory consumption of jobs can be estimated. A detailed workload analysis of past LHCb jobs is presented. It includes a study of job features and their correlation with runtime and memory consumption. Following the features, a supervised learning algorithm is developed based on a history based prediction. The aim is to learn over time how jobs’ runtime and memory evolve influenced due to changes in experiment conditions and software versions. It will be shown that estimation can be notably improved if experiment conditions are taken into account.

  11. Phase-based direct average strain estimation for elastography.

    PubMed

    Ara, Sharmin R; Mohsin, Faisal; Alam, Farzana; Rupa, Sharmin Akhtar; Awwal, Rayhana; Lee, Soo Yeol; Hasan, Md Kamrul

    2013-11-01

    In this paper, a phase-based direct average strain estimation method is developed. A mathematical model is presented to calculate axial strain directly from the phase of the zero-lag cross-correlation function between the windowed precompression and stretched post-compression analytic signals. Unlike phase-based conventional strain estimators, for which strain is computed from the displacement field, strain in this paper is computed in one step using the secant algorithm by exploiting the direct phase-strain relationship. To maintain strain continuity, instead of using the instantaneous phase of the interrogative window alone, an average phase function is defined using the phases of the neighboring windows with the assumption that the strain is essentially similar in a close physical proximity to the interrogative window. This method accounts for the effect of lateral shift but without requiring a prior estimate of the applied strain. Moreover, the strain can be computed both in the compression and relaxation phases of the applied pressure. The performance of the proposed strain estimator is analyzed in terms of the quality metrics elastographic signal-to-noise ratio (SNRe), elastographic contrast-to-noise ratio (CNRe), and mean structural similarity (MSSIM), using a finite element modeling simulation phantom. The results reveal that the proposed method performs satisfactorily in terms of all the three indices for up to 2.5% applied strain. Comparative results using simulation and experimental phantom data, and in vivo breast data of benign and malignant masses also demonstrate that the strain image quality of our method is better than the other reported techniques.

  12. Long-term Observations of Jovian Mid-Infrared Aurora, Hydrocarbon Abundances, and Temperature: Ground-based and Space-based Comparison and Preparation for Juno

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kostiuk, T.; Hewagama, T.; Livengood, T. A.; Fast, K. E.; Bjoraker, G. L.; Carlson, R. C.; Schmuelling, F.

    2015-12-01

    With Juno's approach to Jupiter in 2016 nearing, we report on long term measurements of Jupiter's thermal infrared aurora covering spectral and altitude regions that will complement Juno observational capabilities. Previously acquired spectral data from ground-based observatories as well as by Voyager IRIS and Cassini CIRS during Jupiter flybys will be investigated using current methods and capabilities. The thermal (mid-) IR aurora from Jupiter's polar regions, hydrocarbon abundances, and thermal structure retrieved from the ground and from space-based investigations will be compared and used to illustrate the different capabilities and complementarity of the measurement platforms. We report on the reexamination and re-analysis of hydrocarbon emission spectra from Jupiter obtained using ground-based ultra-high spectral resolution infrared heterodyne spectroscopy (IRHS) and Fourier transform spectroscopy (FTS) from Cassini CIRS during its flyby of Jupiter in 2000-2001 and Voyager IRIS data obtained during flybys in 1979. Measurements with IRHS have been made over 30 years, primarily of ethane near 12 micrometer wavelength. These measurements yield fully resolved individual spectral lines whose shape provides unique information on variability of temperature and abundance. CIRS and IRIS data at coarser spectral resolution provide extended spatial distributions covering a broad spectral region, including abundances and auroral response of hydrocarbon constituents in the 8-13 micrometer spectral region (ethane, methane, ethylene, and acetylene). Analysis shows detailed spatial variability of the primary hydrocarbons in northern latitudes. Temporal changes of the ethane line emission over three solar cycles and comparison of retrievals from ethane data taken contemporaneously during the Cassini flyby by both techniques will be compared and results discussed. From these analyses, the expectation is that the thermal IR auroral emission may be low during the Juno tour at

  13. Crop acreage estimation using a Landsat-based estimator as an auxiliary variable

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chhikara, R. S.; Houston, A. G.; Lundgren, J. C.

    1986-01-01

    The problem of improving upon the ground survey estimates of crop acreages by utilizing Landsat data is addressed. Three estimators, called regression, ratio, and stratified ratio, are studied for bias and variance, and their relative efficiencies are compared. The approach is to formulate analytically the estimation problem that utilizes ground survey data, as collected by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, and Landsat data, which provide complete coverage for an area of interest, and then to conduct simulation studies. It is shown over a wide range of parametric conditions that the regression estimator is the most efficient unless there is a low correlation between the actual and estimated crop acreages in the sampled area segments, in which case the ratio and stratified ratio estimators are better. Furthermore, it is seen that the regression estimator is potentially biased due to estimating the regression coefficient from the training sample segments. Estimation of the variance of the regression estimator is also investigated. Two variance estimators are considered, the large sample variance estimator and an alternative estimator suggested by Cochran. The large sample estimate of variance is found to be biased and inferior to the Cochran estimate for small sample sizes.

  14. An efficient selective perceptual-based super-resolution estimator.

    PubMed

    Karam, Lina J; Sadaka, Nabil G; Ferzli, Rony; Ivanovski, Zoran A

    2011-12-01

    In this paper, a selective perceptual-based (SELP) framework is presented to reduce the complexity of popular super-resolution (SR) algorithms while maintaining the desired quality of the enhanced images/video. A perceptual human visual system model is proposed to compute local contrast sensitivity thresholds. The obtained thresholds are used to select which pixels are super-resolved based on the perceived visibility of local edges. Processing only a set of perceptually significant pixels reduces significantly the computational complexity of SR algorithms without losing the achievable visual quality. The proposed SELP framework is integrated into a maximum-a posteriori-based SR algorithm as well as a fast two-stage fusion-restoration SR estimator. Simulation results show a significant reduction on average in computational complexity with comparable signal-to-noise ratio gains and visual quality.

  15. Eclipsing Binaries as Astrophysical Laboratories: CM Draconis - Accurate Absolute Physical Properties of Low Mass Stars and an Independent Estimate of the Primordial Helium Abundance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McCook, G. P.; Guinan, E. F.; Saumon, D.; Kang, Y. W.

    1997-05-01

    CM Draconis (Gl 630.1; Vmax = +12.93) is an important eclipsing binary consisting of two dM4.5e stars with an orbital period of 1.2684 days. This binary is a high velocity star (s= 164 km/s) and the brighter member of a common proper motion pair with a cool faint white dwarf companion (LP 101-16). CM Dra and its white dwarf companion were once considered by Zwicky to belong to a class of "pygmy stars", but they turned out to be ordinary old, cool white dwarfs or faint red dwarfs. Lacy (ApJ 218,444L) determined the first orbital and physical properties of CM Dra from the analysis of his light and radial velocity curves. In addition to providing directly measured masses, radii, and luminosities for low mass stars, CM Dra was also recognized by Lacy and later by Paczynski and Sienkiewicz (ApJ 286,332) as an important laboratory for cosmology, as a possible old Pop II object where it may be possible to determine the primordial helium abundance. Recently, Metcalfe et al.(ApJ 456,356) obtained accurate RV measures for CM Dra and recomputed refined elements along with its helium abundance. Starting in 1995, we have been carrying out intensive RI photoelectric photometry of CM Dra to obtain well defined, accurate light curves so that its fundamental properties can be improved, and at the same time, to search for evidence of planets around the binary from planetary transit eclipses. During 1996 and 1997 well defined light curves were secured and these were combined with the RV measures of Metcalfe et al. (1996) to determine the orbital and physical parameters of the system, including a refined orbital period. A recent version of the Wilson-Devinney program was used to analyze the data. New radii, masses, mean densities, Teff, and luminosities were found as well as a re-determination of the helium abundance (Y). The results of the recent analyses of the light and RV curves will be presented and modelling results discussed. This research is supported by NSF grants AST-9315365

  16. An automatic iris occlusion estimation method based on high-dimensional density estimation.

    PubMed

    Li, Yung-Hui; Savvides, Marios

    2013-04-01

    Iris masks play an important role in iris recognition. They indicate which part of the iris texture map is useful and which part is occluded or contaminated by noisy image artifacts such as eyelashes, eyelids, eyeglasses frames, and specular reflections. The accuracy of the iris mask is extremely important. The performance of the iris recognition system will decrease dramatically when the iris mask is inaccurate, even when the best recognition algorithm is used. Traditionally, people used the rule-based algorithms to estimate iris masks from iris images. However, the accuracy of the iris masks generated this way is questionable. In this work, we propose to use Figueiredo and Jain's Gaussian Mixture Models (FJ-GMMs) to model the underlying probabilistic distributions of both valid and invalid regions on iris images. We also explored possible features and found that Gabor Filter Bank (GFB) provides the most discriminative information for our goal. Finally, we applied Simulated Annealing (SA) technique to optimize the parameters of GFB in order to achieve the best recognition rate. Experimental results show that the masks generated by the proposed algorithm increase the iris recognition rate on both ICE2 and UBIRIS dataset, verifying the effectiveness and importance of our proposed method for iris occlusion estimation.

  17. Can we use ground-based measurements of HCFCs and HFCs to derive their emissions, lifetimes, and the global OH abundance?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liang, Q.; Chipperfield, M.; Daniel, J. S.; Burkholder, J. B.; Rigby, M. L.; Velders, G. J. M.

    2015-12-01

    The hydroxyl radical (OH) is the major oxidant in the atmosphere. Reaction with OH is the primary removal process for many non-CO2greenhouse gases (GHGs), ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) and their replacements, e.g. hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). Traditionally, the global OH abundance is inferred using the observed atmospheric rate of change for methyl chloroform (MCF). Due to the Montreal Protocol regulation, the atmospheric abundance of MCF has been decreasing rapidly to near-zero values. It is becoming critical to find an alternative reference compound to continue to provide quantitative information for the global OH abundance. Our model analysis using the NASA 3-D GEOS-5 Chemistry Climate Model suggests that the inter-hemispheric gradients (IHG) of the HCFCs and HFCs show a strong linear correlation with their global emissions. Therefore it is possible to use (i) the observed IHGs of HCFCs and HFCs to estimate their global emissions, and (ii) use the derived emissions and the observed long-term trend to calculate their lifetimes and to infer the global OH abundance. Preliminary analysis using a simple global two-box model (one box for each hemisphere) and information from the global 3-D model suggests that the quantitative relationship between IHG and global emissions varies slightly among individual compounds depending on their lifetime, their emissions history and emission fractions from the two hemispheres. While each compound shows different sensitivity to the above quantities, the combined suite of the HCFCs and HFCs provides a means to derive global OH abundance and the corresponding atmospheric lifetimes of long-lived gases with respect to OH (tOH). The fact that the OH partial lifetimes of these compounds are highly correlated, with the ratio of tOH equal to the reverse ratio of their OH thermal reaction rates at 272K, provides an additional constraint that can greatly reduce the uncertainty in the OH abundance and t

  18. Testing the use of a citronella-based repellent as an effective method to reduce the prevalence and abundance of biting flies in avian nests.

    PubMed

    Martínez-de la Puente, Josué; Merino, Santiago; Lobato, Elisa; Rivero-de Aguilar, Juan; del Cerro, Sara; Ruiz-de-Castañeda, Rafael

    2009-04-01

    Here, we validate the use of a citronella (natural oil) based repellent to reduce the abundance of flying blood-sucking insects in avian nests. These insects are important parasites of birds affecting them as blood feeders and as vectors of a diversity of pathogens. When nestling were 10 days old, we assigned wild great tit Parus major nests to one of two treatments, control and fumigated nests. The abundance of biting midges and blackflies captured during 3 days following the treatment application were lower in fumigated nests with respect to control ones. By contrast, the abundance of blowfly pupae measured when nestlings left their nests was not affected by the treatment. Although many experimental studies modify the abundance of nest-dweller ectoparasites, to our knowledge, this is the first one describing an easy, safe, and effective method, reducing the total abundance of both biting midges and blackflies in wild avian nests. Our results could be used in future conservation projects and experimental studies on host-parasite evolution affecting the abundance of flying blood-feeder insects under natural conditions.

  19. Estimation for sparse vegetation information in desertification region based on Tiangong-1 hyperspectral image.

    PubMed

    Wu, Jun-Jun; Gao, Zhi-Hai; Li, Zeng-Yuan; Wang, Hong-Yan; Pang, Yong; Sun, Bin; Li, Chang-Long; Li, Xu-Zhi; Zhang, Jiu-Xing

    2014-03-01

    In order to estimate the sparse vegetation information accurately in desertification region, taking southeast of Sunite Right Banner, Inner Mongolia, as the test site and Tiangong-1 hyperspectral image as the main data, sparse vegetation coverage and biomass were retrieved based on normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and soil adjusted vegetation index (SAVI), combined with the field investigation data. Then the advantages and disadvantages between them were compared. Firstly, the correlation between vegetation indexes and vegetation coverage under different bands combination was analyzed, as well as the biomass. Secondly, the best bands combination was determined when the maximum correlation coefficient turned up between vegetation indexes (VI) and vegetation parameters. It showed that the maximum correlation coefficient between vegetation parameters and NDVI could reach as high as 0.7, while that of SAVI could nearly reach 0.8. The center wavelength of red band in the best bands combination for NDVI was 630nm, and that of the near infrared (NIR) band was 910 nm. Whereas, when the center wavelength was 620 and 920 nm respectively, they were the best combination for SAVI. Finally, the linear regression models were established to retrieve vegetation coverage and biomass based on Tiangong-1 VIs. R2 of all models was more than 0.5, while that of the model based on SAVI was higher than that based on NDVI, especially, the R2 of vegetation coverage retrieve model based on SAVI was as high as 0.59. By intersection validation, the standard errors RMSE based on SAVI models were lower than that of the model based on NDVI. The results showed that the abundant spectral information of Tiangong-1 hyperspectral image can reflect the actual vegetaion condition effectively, and SAVI can estimate the sparse vegetation information more accurately than NDVI in desertification region.

  20. Precision phase estimation based on weak-value amplification

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qiu, Xiaodong; Xie, Linguo; Liu, Xiong; Luo, Lan; Li, Zhaoxue; Zhang, Zhiyou; Du, Jinglei

    2017-02-01

    In this letter, we propose a precision method for phase estimation based on the weak-value amplification (WVA) technique using a monochromatic light source. The anomalous WVA significantly suppresses the technical noise with respect to the intensity difference signal induced by the phase delay when the post-selection procedure comes into play. The phase measured precision of this method is proportional to the weak-value of a polarization operator in the experimental range. Our results compete well with the wide spectrum light phase weak measurements and outperform the standard homodyne phase detection technique.

  1. Safe Maneuvering Envelope Estimation Based on a Physical Approach

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lombaerts, Thomas J. J.; Schuet, Stefan R.; Wheeler, Kevin R.; Acosta, Diana; Kaneshige, John T.

    2013-01-01

    This paper discusses a computationally efficient algorithm for estimating the safe maneuvering envelope of damaged aircraft. The algorithm performs a robust reachability analysis through an optimal control formulation while making use of time scale separation and taking into account uncertainties in the aerodynamic derivatives. This approach differs from others since it is physically inspired. This more transparent approach allows interpreting data in each step, and it is assumed that these physical models based upon flight dynamics theory will therefore facilitate certification for future real life applications.

  2. Global Distribution of Microbial Abundance and Biomass in Subseafloor Sediment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kallmeyer, J.; Pockalny, R. A.; Adhikari, R. R.; Smith, D. C.; D'Hondt, S. L.

    2012-12-01

    Previously published cell counts were mostly from ocean margins and the eastern equatorial Pacific. Cell counts from these environments are generally similar from site to site and decrease logarithmically with sediment depth, although there can be sharp peaks of high cell densities in zones of anaerobic methane-oxidation. Recent counts from the South Pacific Gyre and the North Pacific Gyre are several orders of magnitude lower and show a more rapid decrease with depth than all previously published datasets. With these new data available, total microbial cell abundance in subseafloor sediment varies between sites by ca. five orders of magnitude. The differences between cell counts from ocean margins and upwelling areas and cell counts from oceanic gyres raise three questions. First, how does the abundance of microbes in subseafloor sediment vary throughout the world ocean? Second, what property or properties are likely to control that variation? Third, how does this variation affect estimates of total subseafloor sedimentary biomass and Earth's total biomass? To address these questions, we compiled our cell counts from the South Pacific Gyre, the North Pacific Gyre and the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean with previously published counts and parameterized the cell distribution at each site and determined two parameters, (i) cell concentration at 1 mbsf and (ii) rate of decrease in cell counts with depth. Both parameters are strongly correlated with mean sedimentation rate and distance to shore. Based on these correlations, we estimate global subseafloor sedimentary microbial abundance to be 2.9*1029 cells (corresponding to 4.1 Pg C and ~0.6% of Earth's total living biomass). This estimate of subseafloor sedimentary microbial abundance is roughly equal to previous estimates of total microbial abundance in seawater and total microbial abundance in soil. It is much lower than previous estimates of subseafloor sedimentary microbial abundance. In consequence, we estimate

  3. Detection of low-abundance biomarker lipocalin 1 for diabetic retinopathy using optoelectrokinetic bead-based immunosensing.

    PubMed

    Wang, Jhih-Cheng; Ku, Hu-Yao; Chen, Tain-Song; Chuang, Han-Sheng

    2017-03-15

    Early diagnosis of diabetic retinopathy (DR) is vital but challenging. DR is a common complication and a major cause of vision loss in patients with diabetes mellitus. Without appropriate medical intervention, visual impairment may become a great burden to our healthcare system. In clinical practice, the current diagnostic methods, such as fluorescence angiography and optical coherence tomography, remain constrained by non-quantitative examinations and individual ophthalmologists' experiences. Late diagnosis often prevents early treatment. To address the constraints on current diagnostics, this study developed an optoelectrokinetic bead-based immunosensing technique for detecting lipocalin 1 (LCN1), a DR biomarker. The concentration level of LCN1 in the tears of DR patients increases with DR severity. The immunoassay was dependent on the formation of sandwiched immunocomplexes on the particles. A secondary antibody labeled with dyes/quantum dots (QDs) was used to visualize the presence of the target antigens. Rapid electrokinetic patterning (REP), an optoelectrokinetic technique, was used to dynamically enhance the fluorescent signal by concentrating the modified particles. The limit of detection (LOD) of the technique could reach 110pg/mL. Only 1.5μL of a sample fluid was required for the measurement. Our results showed that highly sensitive and improved LOD is subjected to particle stacking, small particle size, and compact cluster. By labeling different particle sizes with dyes/QDs for LCN1 and TNF-α, we successfully used REP to detect the two DR biomarkers on the same platform. The development of an optoelectrokinetic bead-based immunosensing technique can provide new insights into diagnosing other low-abundance diseases in the future.

  4. Estimating glomerular filtration rate in a population-based study

    PubMed Central

    Shankar, Anoop; Lee, Kristine E; Klein, Barbara EK; Muntner, Paul; Brazy, Peter C; Cruickshanks, Karen J; Nieto, F Javier; Danforth, Lorraine G; Schubert, Carla R; Tsai, Michael Y; Klein, Ronald

    2010-01-01

    Background: Glomerular filtration rate (GFR)-estimating equations are used to determine the prevalence of chronic kidney disease (CKD) in population-based studies. However, it has been suggested that since the commonly used GFR equations were originally developed from samples of patients with CKD, they underestimate GFR in healthy populations. Few studies have made side-by-side comparisons of the effect of various estimating equations on the prevalence estimates of CKD in a general population sample. Patients and methods: We examined a population-based sample comprising adults from Wisconsin (age, 43–86 years; 56% women). We compared the prevalence of CKD, defined as a GFR of <60 mL/min per 1.73 m2 estimated from serum creatinine, by applying various commonly used equations including the modification of diet in renal disease (MDRD) equation, Cockcroft–Gault (CG) equation, and the Mayo equation. We compared the performance of these equations against the CKD definition of cystatin C >1.23 mg/L. Results: We found that the prevalence of CKD varied widely among different GFR equations. Although the prevalence of CKD was 17.2% with the MDRD equation and 16.5% with the CG equation, it was only 4.8% with the Mayo equation. Only 24% of those identified to have GFR in the range of 50–59 mL/min per 1.73 m2 by the MDRD equation had cystatin C levels >1.23 mg/L; their mean cystatin C level was only 1 mg/L (interquartile range, 0.9–1.2 mg/L). This finding was similar for the CG equation. For the Mayo equation, 62.8% of those patients with GFR in the range of 50–59 mL/min per 1.73 m2 had cystatin C levels >1.23 mg/L; their mean cystatin C level was 1.3 mg/L (interquartile range, 1.2–1.5 mg/L). The MDRD and CG equations showed a false-positive rate of >10%. Discussion: We found that the MDRD and CG equations, the current standard to estimate GFR, appeared to overestimate the prevalence of CKD in a general population sample. PMID:20730018

  5. Synthesis of multiple data structures for improved accuracy of abundance and demographic estimates form white-tailed at Savannah River Site.

    SciTech Connect

    Conroy, Michael J.

    2014-12-08

    The goal of this study was to provide a framework for combining existing data (from camera trapping, harvest surveys, and spotlight counts) into an integrated system that produces the most accurate estimates possible for use in setting harvest goals. A summary of the key data components that were available is included.

  6. Estimating cetacean carrying capacity based on spacing behaviour.

    PubMed

    Braithwaite, Janelle E; Meeuwig, Jessica J; Jenner, K Curt S

    2012-01-01

    Conservation of large ocean wildlife requires an understanding of how they use space. In Western Australia, the humpback whale (Megaptera novaeangliae) population is growing at a minimum rate of 10% per year. An important consideration for conservation based management in space-limited environments, such as coastal resting areas, is the potential expansion in area use by humpback whales if the carrying capacity of existing areas is exceeded. Here we determined the theoretical carrying capacity of a known humpback resting area based on the spacing behaviour of pods, where a resting area is defined as a sheltered embayment along the coast. Two separate approaches were taken to estimate this distance. The first used the median nearest neighbour distance between pods in relatively dense areas, giving a spacing distance of 2.16 km (± 0.94). The second estimated the spacing distance as the radius at which 50% of the population included no other pods, and was calculated as 1.93 km (range: 1.62-2.50 km). Using these values, the maximum number of pods able to fit into the resting area was 698 and 872 pods, respectively. Given an average observed pod size of 1.7 whales, this equates to a carrying capacity estimate of between 1187 and 1482 whales at any given point in time. This study demonstrates that whale pods do maintain a distance from each other, which may determine the number of animals that can occupy aggregation areas where space is limited. This requirement for space has implications when considering boundaries for protected areas or competition for space with the fishing and resources sectors.

  7. Estimation of Fire Emissions from Satellite-Based Measurements

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ichoku, Charles; Kaufman, Yoram J.

    2004-01-01

    Biomass burning is a worldwide phenomenon affecting many vegetated parts of the globe regularly. Fires emit large quantities of aerosol and trace gases into the atmosphere, thus influencing the atmospheric chemistry and climate. Traditional methods of fire emissions estimation achieved only limited success, because they were based on peripheral information such as rainfall patterns, vegetation types and changes, agricultural practices, and surface ozone concentrations. During the last several years, rapid developments in satellite remote sensing has allowed more direct estimation of smoke emissions using remotely-sensed fire data. However, current methods use fire pixel counts or burned areas, thereby depending on the accuracy of independent estimations of the biomass fuel loadings, combustion efficiency, and emission factors. With the enhanced radiometric range of its 4-micron fire channel, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor, which flies aboard both of the Earth Observing System EOS) Terra and Aqua Satellites, is able to measure the rate of release of fire radiative energy (FRE) in MJ/s (something that older sensors could not do). MODIS also measures aerosol distribution. Taking advantage of these new resources, we have developed a procedure combining MODIS fire and aerosol products to derive FRE-based smoke emission coefficients (C(e), in kg/MJ) for different regions of the globe. These coefficients are simply used to multiply FRE from MODIS to derive the emitted smoke aerosol mass. Results from this novel methodology are very encouraging. For instance, it was found that the smoke total particulate mass emission coefficient for the Brazilian Cerrado ecosystem (approximately 0.022 kg/MJ) is about twice the value for North America, Western Europe, or Australia, but about 50% lower than the value for southern Africa.

  8. Estimating Cetacean Carrying Capacity Based on Spacing Behaviour

    PubMed Central

    Braithwaite, Janelle E.; Meeuwig, Jessica J.; Jenner, K. Curt S.

    2012-01-01

    Conservation of large ocean wildlife requires an understanding of how they use space. In Western Australia, the humpback whale (Megaptera novaeangliae) population is growing at a minimum rate of 10% per year. An important consideration for conservation based management in space-limited environments, such as coastal resting areas, is the potential expansion in area use by humpback whales if the carrying capacity of existing areas is exceeded. Here we determined the theoretical carrying capacity of a known humpback resting area based on the spacing behaviour of pods, where a resting area is defined as a sheltered embayment along the coast. Two separate approaches were taken to estimate this distance. The first used the median nearest neighbour distance between pods in relatively dense areas, giving a spacing distance of 2.16 km (±0.94). The second estimated the spacing distance as the radius at which 50% of the population included no other pods, and was calculated as 1.93 km (range: 1.62–2.50 km). Using these values, the maximum number of pods able to fit into the resting area was 698 and 872 pods, respectively. Given an average observed pod size of 1.7 whales, this equates to a carrying capacity estimate of between 1187 and 1482 whales at any given point in time. This study demonstrates that whale pods do maintain a distance from each other, which may determine the number of animals that can occupy aggregation areas where space is limited. This requirement for space has implications when considering boundaries for protected areas or competition for space with the fishing and resources sectors. PMID:23236479

  9. Ionized Gaseous Nebulae Abundance Determination from the Direct Method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pérez-Montero, Enrique

    2017-04-01

    This tutorial explains the procedure used to analyze an optical emission-line spectrum produced by a nebula ionized by massive star formation. Particularly, the methodology used to derive physical properties, such as electron density and temperature, and the ionic abundances of the most representative elements whose emission lines are present in the optical spectrum is described. The main focus is on the direct method, which is based on the measurement of the electron temperature to derive the abundances, given that the ionization and thermal equilibrium of the ionized gas is dominated by the metallicity. The ionization correction factors used to obtain total abundances from the abundances of some of their ions are also given. Finally, some strong-line methods to derive abundances are described. Such methods are used when no estimation of the temperature can be derived, but which can be consistent with the direct method if they are empirically calibrated.

  10. Lunar base scenario cost estimates: Lunar base systems study task 6.1

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1988-01-01

    The projected development and production costs of each of the Lunar Base's systems are described and unit costs are estimated for transporting the systems to the lunar surface and for setting up the system.

  11. Note: Localization based on estimated source energy homogeneity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Turkaya, Semih; Toussaint, Renaud; Eriksen, Fredrik Kvalheim; Lengliné, Olivier; Daniel, Guillaume; Flekkøy, Eirik G.; Mâløy, Knut Jørgen

    2016-09-01

    Acoustic signal localization is a complex problem with a wide range of industrial and academic applications. Herein, we propose a localization method based on energy attenuation and inverted source amplitude comparison (termed estimated source energy homogeneity, or ESEH). This inversion is tested on both synthetic (numerical) data using a Lamb wave propagation model and experimental 2D plate data (recorded with 4 accelerometers sensitive up to 26 kHz). We compare the performance of this technique with classic source localization algorithms: arrival time localization, time reversal localization, and localization based on energy amplitude. Our technique is highly versatile and out-performs the conventional techniques in terms of error minimization and cost (both computational and financial).

  12. Clustering-based redshift estimation: application to VIPERS/CFHTLS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scottez, V.; Mellier, Y.; Granett, B. R.; Moutard, T.; Kilbinger, M.; Scodeggio, M.; Garilli, B.; Bolzonella, M.; de la Torre, S.; Guzzo, L.; Abbas, U.; Adami, C.; Arnouts, S.; Bottini, D.; Branchini, E.; Cappi, A.; Cucciati, O.; Davidzon, I.; Fritz, A.; Franzetti, P.; Iovino, A.; Krywult, J.; Le Brun, V.; Le Fèvre, O.; Maccagni, D.; Małek, K.; Marulli, F.; Polletta, M.; Pollo, A.; Tasca, L. A. M.; Tojeiro, R.; Vergani, D.; Zanichelli, A.; Bel, J.; Coupon, J.; De Lucia, G.; Ilbert, O.; McCracken, H. J.; Moscardini, L.

    2016-10-01

    We explore the accuracy of the clustering-based redshift estimation proposed by Ménard et al. when applied to VIMOS Public Extragalactic Redshift Survey (VIPERS) and Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope Legacy Survey (CFHTLS) real data. This method enables us to reconstruct redshift distributions from measurement of the angular clustering of objects using a set of secure spectroscopic redshifts. We use state-of-the-art spectroscopic measurements with iAB < 22.5 from the VIPERS as reference population to infer the redshift distribution of galaxies from the CFHTLS T0007 release. VIPERS provides a nearly representative sample to a flux limit of iAB < 22.5 at a redshift of >0.5 which allows us to test the accuracy of the clustering-based redshift distributions. We show that this method enables us to reproduce the true mean colour-redshift relation when both populations have the same magnitude limit. We also show that this technique allows the inference of redshift distributions for a population fainter than the reference and we give an estimate of the colour-redshift mapping in this case. This last point is of great interest for future large-redshift surveys which require a complete faint spectroscopic sample.

  13. Dynamic soft tissue deformation estimation based on energy analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gao, Dedong; Lei, Yong; Yao, Bin

    2016-10-01

    The needle placement accuracy of millimeters is required in many needle-based surgeries. The tissue deformation, especially that occurring on the surface of organ tissue, affects the needle-targeting accuracy of both manual and robotic needle insertions. It is necessary to understand the mechanism of tissue deformation during needle insertion into soft tissue. In this paper, soft tissue surface deformation is investigated on the basis of continuum mechanics, where a geometry model is presented to quantitatively approximate the volume of tissue deformation. The energy-based method is presented to the dynamic process of needle insertion into soft tissue based on continuum mechanics, and the volume of the cone is exploited to quantitatively approximate the deformation on the surface of soft tissue. The external work is converted into potential, kinetic, dissipated, and strain energies during the dynamic rigid needle-tissue interactive process. The needle insertion experimental setup, consisting of a linear actuator, force sensor, needle, tissue container, and a light, is constructed while an image-based method for measuring the depth and radius of the soft tissue surface deformations is introduced to obtain the experimental data. The relationship between the changed volume of tissue deformation and the insertion parameters is created based on the law of conservation of energy, with the volume of tissue deformation having been obtained using image-based measurements. The experiments are performed on phantom specimens, and an energy-based analytical fitted model is presented to estimate the volume of tissue deformation. The experimental results show that the energy-based analytical fitted model can predict the volume of soft tissue deformation, and the root mean squared errors of the fitting model and experimental data are 0.61 and 0.25 at the velocities 2.50 mm/s and 5.00 mm/s. The estimating parameters of the soft tissue surface deformations are proven to be useful

  14. Antarctic mixotrophic protist abundances by microscopy and molecular methods.

    PubMed

    Gast, Rebecca J; McKie-Krisberg, Zaid M; Fay, Scott A; Rose, Julie M; Sanders, Robert W

    2014-08-01

    Protists are traditionally described as either phototrophic or heterotrophic, but studies have indicated that mixotrophic species, organisms that combine both strategies, can have significant impacts on prey populations in marine microbial food webs. While estimates of active mixotroph abundances in environmental samples are determined microscopically by fluorescent particle ingestion, species identification is difficult. We developed SYBR-based qPCR strategies for three Antarctic algal species that we identified as mixotrophic. This method and traditional ingestion experiments were applied to determine the total mixotroph abundance in Antarctic water samples, to ascertain the abundance of known mixotrophic species, and to identify environmental variables that impact the distribution and abundance of these species. Despite differences in sampling locations and years, mixotroph distribution was strongly influenced by season. Environmental variables that best explained variation in the individual mixotroph species abundances included temperature, oxygen, date, fluorescence, conductivity, and latitude. Phosphate was identified as an additional explanatory variable when nutrients were included in the analysis. Utilizing culture-based grazing rates and qPCR abundances, the estimated summed impact on bacterial populations by the three mixotrophs was usually < 2% of the overall mixotrophic grazing, but in one sample, Pyramimonas was estimated to contribute up to 80% of mixotrophic grazing.

  15. Global precipitation estimates based on a technique for combining satellite-based estimates, rain gauge analysis, and NWP model precipitation information

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Huffman, George J.; Adler, Robert F.; Rudolf, Bruno; Schneider, Udo; Keehn, Peter R.

    1995-01-01

    The 'satellite-gauge model' (SGM) technique is described for combining precipitation estimates from microwave satellite data, infrared satellite data, rain gauge analyses, and numerical weather prediction models into improved estimates of global precipitation. Throughout, monthly estimates on a 2.5 degrees x 2.5 degrees lat-long grid are employed. First, a multisatellite product is developed using a combination of low-orbit microwave and geosynchronous-orbit infrared data in the latitude range 40 degrees N - 40 degrees S (the adjusted geosynchronous precipitation index) and low-orbit microwave data alone at higher latitudes. Then the rain gauge analysis is brougth in, weighting each field by its inverse relative error variance to produce a nearly global, observationally based precipitation estimate. To produce a complete global estimate, the numerical model results are used to fill data voids in the combined satellite-gauge estimate. Our sequential approach to combining estimates allows a user to select the multisatellite estimate, the satellite-gauge estimate, or the full SGM estimate (observationally based estimates plus the model information). The primary limitation in the method is imperfections in the estimation of relative error for the individual fields. The SGM results for one year of data (July 1987 to June 1988) show important differences from the individual estimates, including model estimates as well as climatological estimates. In general, the SGM results are drier in the subtropics than the model and climatological results, reflecting the relatively dry microwave estimates that dominate the SGM in oceanic regions.

  16. Effect of CO₂ and 1-octen-3-ol attractants for estimating species richness and the abundance of diurnal mosquitoes in the southeastern Atlantic forest, Brazil.

    PubMed

    Laporta, Gabriel Z; Sallum, Maria Anice M

    2011-05-01

    Studies have shown that both carbon dioxide (CO₂) and octenol (1-octen-3-ol) are effective attractants for mosquitoes. The objective of the present study was to evaluate the attractiveness of 1-octen-3-ol and CO₂ for diurnal mosquitoes in the southeastern Atlantic forest. A Latin square experimental design was employed with four treatments: CDC-light trap (CDC-LT), CDC-LT and 1-octen-3-ol, CDC-LT and CO₂ and CDC-LT with 1-octen-3-ol and CO₂. Results demonstrated that both CDC-CO₂ and CDC-CO₂-1-octen-3-ol captured a greater number of mosquito species and specimens compared to CDC-1-octen-3-ol; CDC-LT was used as the control. Interestingly, Anopheles (Kerteszia) sp. was generally attracted to 1-octen-3-ol, whereas Aedes serratus was the most abundant species in all Latin square collections. This species was recently shown to be competent to transmit the yellow fever virus and may therefore play a role as a disease vector in rural areas of Brazil.

  17. Modeling avian abundance from replicated counts using binomial mixture models

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kery, Marc; Royle, J. Andrew; Schmid, Hans

    2005-01-01

    Abundance estimation in ecology is usually accomplished by capture–recapture, removal, or distance sampling methods. These may be hard to implement at large spatial scales. In contrast, binomial mixture models enable abundance estimation without individual identification, based simply on temporally and spatially replicated counts. Here, we evaluate mixture models using data from the national breeding bird monitoring program in Switzerland, where some 250 1-km2 quadrats are surveyed using the territory mapping method three times during each breeding season. We chose eight species with contrasting distribution (wide–narrow), abundance (high–low), and detectability (easy–difficult). Abundance was modeled as a random effect with a Poisson or negative binomial distribution, with mean affected by forest cover, elevation, and route length. Detectability was a logit-linear function of survey date, survey date-by-elevation, and sampling effort (time per transect unit). Resulting covariate effects and parameter estimates were consistent with expectations. Detectability per territory (for three surveys) ranged from 0.66 to 0.94 (mean 0.84) for easy species, and from 0.16 to 0.83 (mean 0.53) for difficult species, depended on survey effort for two easy and all four difficult species, and changed seasonally for three easy and three difficult species. Abundance was positively related to route length in three high-abundance and one low-abundance (one easy and three difficult) species, and increased with forest cover in five forest species, decreased for two nonforest species, and was unaffected for a generalist species. Abundance estimates under the most parsimonious mixture models were between 1.1 and 8.9 (median 1.8) times greater than estimates based on territory mapping; hence, three surveys were insufficient to detect all territories for each species. We conclude that binomial mixture models are an important new approach for estimating abundance corrected for

  18. A process-based approach to estimate point snow instability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reuter, B.; Schweizer, J.; van Herwijnen, A.

    2015-05-01

    Snow instability data provide information about the mechanical state of the snow cover and are essential for forecasting snow avalanches. So far, direct observations of instability (recent avalanches, shooting cracks or whumpf sounds) are complemented with field tests such as the rutschblock test, since no measurement method for instability exists. We propose a new approach based on snow mechanical properties derived from the snow micro-penetrometer that takes into account the two essential processes during dry-snow avalanche release: failure initiation and crack propagation. To estimate the propensity of failure initiation we define a stress-based failure criterion, whereas the propensity of crack propagation is described by the critical cut length as obtained with a propagation saw test. The input parameters include layer thickness, snow density, effective elastic modulus, strength and specific fracture energy of the weak layer - all derived from the penetration-force signal acquired with the snow micro-penetrometer. Both instability measures were validated with independent field data and correlated well with results from field tests. Comparisons with observed signs of instability clearly indicated that a snowpack is only prone to avalanche if the two separate conditions for failure initiation and crack propagation are fulfilled. To our knowledge, this is the first time that an objective method for estimating snow instability has been proposed. The approach can either be used directly based on field measurements with the snow micro-penetrometer, or be implemented in numerical snow cover models. With an objective measure of instability at hand, the problem of spatial variations of instability and its causes can now be tackled.

  19. Model based estimation of image depth and displacement

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Damour, Kevin T.

    1992-01-01

    Passive depth and displacement map determinations have become an important part of computer vision processing. Applications that make use of this type of information include autonomous navigation, robotic assembly, image sequence compression, structure identification, and 3-D motion estimation. With the reliance of such systems on visual image characteristics, a need to overcome image degradations, such as random image-capture noise, motion, and quantization effects, is clearly necessary. Many depth and displacement estimation algorithms also introduce additional distortions due to the gradient operations performed on the noisy intensity images. These degradations can limit the accuracy and reliability of the displacement or depth information extracted from such sequences. Recognizing the previously stated conditions, a new method to model and estimate a restored depth or displacement field is presented. Once a model has been established, the field can be filtered using currently established multidimensional algorithms. In particular, the reduced order model Kalman filter (ROMKF), which has been shown to be an effective tool in the reduction of image intensity distortions, was applied to the computed displacement fields. Results of the application of this model show significant improvements on the restored field. Previous attempts at restoring the depth or displacement fields assumed homogeneous characteristics which resulted in the smoothing of discontinuities. In these situations, edges were lost. An adaptive model parameter selection method is provided that maintains sharp edge boundaries in the restored field. This has been successfully applied to images representative of robotic scenarios. In order to accommodate image sequences, the standard 2-D ROMKF model is extended into 3-D by the incorporation of a deterministic component based on previously restored fields. The inclusion of past depth and displacement fields allows a means of incorporating the temporal

  20. Short-term variability during an anchor station study in the southern Benguela upwelling system: Abundance, distribution and estimated production of mesozooplankton with special reference to Calanoides carinatus (Krøyer, 1849)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Verheye, Hans M.

    Daytime zooplankton samples collected at a fixed station position in St Helena Bay during a 27-day time series in March-April 1987 were used to describe the variability in the vertical distribution, abundance and population age structure of Calanoides carinatus in response to upwelling-related processes, and to provide an estimate of their production. The vertical distribution of C. carinatus was characterized by ontogenetic layering of copepodites and adults. The thermocline delimited the maximum depth of young copepodites (CI-CIII). Older stages avoided low-oxygen (<1ml O 2l -1) bottom water. C. carinatus was usually not associated with the chlorophyll a maximum. The spatial segregation of young and older stages is briefly discussed in relation to differential feeding habits and diel vertical migration behaviour. The demographic structure of the C. carinatus population showed evidence of a stable age distribution of copepodites and adults during the first of two upwelling cycles observed during the study. Overall mean abundance was 360 animals m -3. However, during the second upwelling cycle their mean abundance was reduced to 183 animals m -3 and adults dominated the population by 54%. These changes in abundance and age structure are discussed in relation to upwelling-induced advective processes. Surface-dwelling young copepodites (CI-CIII) are thought to be transported away from the study site, while re-seeding of the reduced nearshore population probably took place through advection of diapausal pre-adults (CV) in the upwelled water. Daily production of juvenile C. carinatus was estimated at 0.7 mg C m -3d -1 which, combined with an egg production of 1.0mg C m -3d -1 by addult females, is equivalent to 2% of the observed daily primary production. The mean P:B ratio for the copepodite stages was 0.167d -1. The role of this dominant copepod and the mesozooplankton in the carbon budget in St Helena Bay is discussed. Consumption by mesozooplankters was estimated

  1. ESTIMATING THE DISTRIBUTION OF HARVESTED ESTUARINE BIVALVES WITH NATURAL-HISTORY-BASED HABITAT SUITABILITY MODELS.

    EPA Science Inventory

    Habitat suitability models are used to forecast how environmental change may affect the abundance or distribution of species of interest. The development of habitat suitability models may be used to estimate the vulnerability of this valued ecosystem good to natural or anthropog...

  2. Estimating the distribution of harvested estuarine bivalves with natural-history-based habitat suitability models

    EPA Science Inventory

    Habitat suitability models are useful to forecast how environmental change may affect the abundance or distribution of species of concern. In the case of harvested bivalves, those models may be used to estimate the vulnerability of this valued ecosystem good to natural or human-...

  3. Estimating global carbon uptake by lichens and bryophytes with a process-based model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Porada, P.; Weber, B.; Elbert, W.; Pöschl, U.; Kleidon, A.

    2013-11-01

    Lichens and bryophytes are abundant globally and they may even form the dominant autotrophs in (sub)polar ecosystems, in deserts and at high altitudes. Moreover, they can be found in large amounts as epiphytes in old-growth forests. Here, we present the first process-based model which estimates the net carbon uptake by these organisms at the global scale, thus assessing their significance for biogeochemical cycles. The model uses gridded climate data and key properties of the habitat (e.g. disturbance intervals) to predict processes which control net carbon uptake, namely photosynthesis, respiration, water uptake and evaporation. It relies on equations used in many dynamical vegetation models, which are combined with concepts specific to lichens and bryophytes, such as poikilohydry or the effect of water content on CO2 diffusivity. To incorporate the great functional variation of lichens and bryophytes at the global scale, the model parameters are characterised by broad ranges of possible values instead of a single, globally uniform value. The predicted terrestrial net uptake of 0.34 to 3.3 Gt yr-1 of carbon and global patterns of productivity are in accordance with empirically-derived estimates. Considering that the assimilated carbon can be invested in processes such as weathering or nitrogen fixation, lichens and bryophytes may play a significant role in biogeochemical cycles.

  4. Estimating global carbon uptake by lichens and bryophytes with a process-based model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Porada, P.; Weber, B.; Elbert, W.; Pöschl, U.; Kleidon, A.

    2013-02-01

    Lichens and bryophytes are abundant globally and they may even form the dominant autotrophs in (sub)polar ecosystems, in deserts and at high altitudes. Moreover, they can be found in large amounts as epiphytes in old-growth forests. Here, we present the first process-based model which estimates the net carbon uptake by these organisms at the global scale, thus assessing their significance for biogeochemical cycles. The model uses gridded climate data and key properties of the habitat (e.g. disturbance intervals) to predict processes which control net carbon uptake, namely photosynthesis, respiration, water uptake and evaporation. It relies on equations used in many dynamical vegetation models, which are combined with concepts specific to lichens and bryophytes, such as poikilohydry or the effect of water content on CO2 diffusivity. To incorporate the great functional variation of lichens and bryophytes at the global scale, the model parameters are characterised by broad ranges of possible values instead of a single, globally uniform value. The predicted terrestrial net carbon uptake of 0.34 to 3.3 (Gt C) yr-1 and global patterns of productivity are in accordance with empirically-derived estimates. Considering that the assimilated carbon can be invested in processes such as weathering or nitrogen fixation, lichens and bryophytes may play a significant role in biogeochemical cycles.

  5. Accurate tempo estimation based on harmonic + noise decomposition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alonso, Miguel; Richard, Gael; David, Bertrand

    2006-12-01

    We present an innovative tempo estimation system that processes acoustic audio signals and does not use any high-level musical knowledge. Our proposal relies on a harmonic + noise decomposition of the audio signal by means of a subspace analysis method. Then, a technique to measure the degree of musical accentuation as a function of time is developed and separately applied to the harmonic and noise parts of the input signal. This is followed by a periodicity estimation block that calculates the salience of musical accents for a large number of potential periods. Next, a multipath dynamic programming searches among all the potential periodicities for the most consistent prospects through time, and finally the most energetic candidate is selected as tempo. Our proposal is validated using a manually annotated test-base containing 961 music signals from various musical genres. In addition, the performance of the algorithm under different configurations is compared. The robustness of the algorithm when processing signals of degraded quality is also measured.

  6. A Parallax-based Distance Estimator for Spiral Arm Sources

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reid, M. J.; Dame, T. M.; Menten, K. M.; Brunthaler, A.

    2016-06-01

    The spiral arms of the Milky Way are being accurately located for the first time via trigonometric parallaxes of massive star-forming regions with the Bar and Spiral Structure Legacy Survey, using the Very Long Baseline Array and the European VLBI Network, and with the Japanese VLBI Exploration of Radio Astrometry project. Here we describe a computer program that leverages these results to significantly improve the accuracy and reliability of distance estimates to other sources that are known to follow spiral structure. Using a Bayesian approach, sources are assigned to arms based on their (l, b, v) coordinates with respect to arm signatures seen in CO and H i surveys. A source's kinematic distance, displacement from the plane, and proximity to individual parallax sources are also considered in generating a full distance probability density function. Using this program to estimate distances to large numbers of star-forming regions, we generate a realistic visualization of the Milky Way's spiral structure as seen from the northern hemisphere.

  7. Risk estimation based on chromosomal aberrations induced by radiation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Durante, M.; Bonassi, S.; George, K.; Cucinotta, F. A.

    2001-01-01

    The presence of a causal association between the frequency of chromosomal aberrations in peripheral blood lymphocytes and the risk of cancer has been substantiated recently by epidemiological studies. Cytogenetic analyses of crew members of the Mir Space Station have shown that a significant increase in the frequency of chromosomal aberrations can be detected after flight, and that such an increase is likely to be attributed to the radiation exposure. The risk of cancer can be estimated directly from the yields of chromosomal aberrations, taking into account some aspects of individual susceptibility and other factors unrelated to radiation. However, the use of an appropriate technique for the collection and analysis of chromosomes and the choice of the structural aberrations to be measured are crucial in providing sound results. Based on the fraction of aberrant lymphocytes detected before and after flight, the relative risk after a long-term Mir mission is estimated to be about 1.2-1.3. The new technique of mFISH can provide useful insights into the quantification of risk on an individual basis.

  8. Estimating ENSO predictability based on multi-model hindcasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kumar, Arun; Hu, Zeng-Zhen; Jha, Bhaskar; Peng, Peitao

    2017-01-01

    Based on hindcasts of seasonal forecast systems participating in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble, the seasonal dependence of predictability of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was estimated. The results were consistent with earlier analyses in that the predictability of ENSO was highest in winter and lowest in spring and summer. Further, predictability as measured by the relative amplitude of predictable and unpredictable components was dominated by the ensemble mean instead of the spread (or dispersion) among ensemble members. This result was consistent with previous analysis that most of ENSO predictability resides in the shift of the probability density function (PDF) of ENSO sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies (i.e., changes in the first moment of the PDF that is associated with the ensemble mean of ENSO SST anomalies) rather than due to changes in the spread of the PDF. The analysis establishes our current best estimate of ENSO predictability that can serve as a benchmark for quantifying further improvements resulting from advances in observing, assimilation, and seasonal prediction systems.

  9. Degradation trend estimation of slewing bearing based on LSSVM model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lu, Chao; Chen, Jie; Hong, Rongjing; Feng, Yang; Li, Yuanyuan

    2016-08-01

    A novel prediction method is proposed based on least squares support vector machine (LSSVM) to estimate the slewing bearing's degradation trend with small sample data. This method chooses the vibration signal which contains rich state information as the object of the study. Principal component analysis (PCA) was applied to fuse multi-feature vectors which could reflect the health state of slewing bearing, such as root mean square, kurtosis, wavelet energy entropy, and intrinsic mode function (IMF) energy. The degradation indicator fused by PCA can reflect the degradation more comprehensively and effectively. Then the degradation trend of slewing bearing was predicted by using the LSSVM model optimized by particle swarm optimization (PSO). The proposed method was demonstrated to be more accurate and effective by the whole life experiment of slewing bearing. Therefore, it can be applied in engineering practice.

  10. Probabilistic confidence for decisions based on uncertain reliability estimates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reid, Stuart G.

    2013-05-01

    Reliability assessments are commonly carried out to provide a rational basis for risk-informed decisions concerning the design or maintenance of engineering systems and structures. However, calculated reliabilities and associated probabilities of failure often have significant uncertainties associated with the possible estimation errors relative to the 'true' failure probabilities. For uncertain probabilities of failure, a measure of 'probabilistic confidence' has been proposed to reflect the concern that uncertainty about the true probability of failure could result in a system or structure that is unsafe and could subsequently fail. The paper describes how the concept of probabilistic confidence can be applied to evaluate and appropriately limit the probabilities of failure attributable to particular uncertainties such as design errors that may critically affect the dependability of risk-acceptance decisions. This approach is illustrated with regard to the dependability of structural design processes based on prototype testing with uncertainties attributable to sampling variability.

  11. Estimation of baculovirus titer based on viable cell size.

    PubMed

    Janakiraman, Vasantharajan; Forrest, William F; Seshagiri, Somasekar

    2006-01-01

    In this paper, a simple and rapid protocol for determination of baculovirus titers based on increasing viable insect cell size/diameter following virus infection is presented. There are different methods available for determining virus titers such as plaque assays end-point dilution, quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction and flow cytometry. However, most of these methods are time consuming and labor intensive. The titer estimation method presented here can be completed in approximately 28 h from start to finish. In this method, the Vi-CELL (Beckman Coulter) was used to measure cell diameter change over a range of virus dilutions, following infection. The cell diameter change data were used to compute the virus titer using a statistical method called the method of moments that we have described previously.

  12. Porosity estimation of alumina samples based on resonant backscattering spectrometry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mokhles Gerami, F.; Kakuee, O.; Mohammadi, S.

    2016-04-01

    In this work, columnar porous alumina samples were investigated using the 16O(α,α)16O resonance scattering at 3.045 MeV. If the incident energy is slightly above the resonance energy, a resonance peak appears in the energy spectra of the backscattered ions. The position and width of this peak for non-porous samples are mainly determined by the experimental setup, whilst for porous materials, the peak position shifts towards higher energies under certain conditions. This effect can be explained by the lower amount of material which the ions encounter along the backscattered trajectories. The energy shift of the resonance peak towards higher energies was revealed experimentally and discussed theoretically. The estimated porosities of the samples based on this energy shift were compared with those evaluated from the graphical analysis of the images obtained by field emission scanning electron microscopy.

  13. Data Sources for the Model-based Small Area Estimates of Cancer-Related Knowledge - Small Area Estimates

    Cancer.gov

    The model-based estimates of important cancer risk factors and screening behaviors are obtained by combining the responses to the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) and the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS).

  14. Data Sources for the Model-based Small Area Estimates of Cancer Risk Factors and Screening Behaviors - Small Area Estimates

    Cancer.gov

    The model-based estimates of important cancer risk factors and screening behaviors are obtained by combining the responses to the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) and the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS).

  15. Satellite-based estimation of rainfall erosivity for Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vrieling, Anton; Sterk, Geert; de Jong, Steven M.

    2010-12-01

    SummaryRainfall erosivity is a measure for the erosive force of rainfall. Rainfall kinetic energy determines the erosivity and is in turn greatly dependent on rainfall intensity. Attempts for its large-scale mapping are rare. Most are based on interpolation of erosivity values derived from rain gauge data. For data-poor regions this is not an option. This study examines whether erosivity can be accurately mapped for Africa using 3-hourly TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) precipitation data. Using intensity-erosivity relationships and 11 years of TMPA data (1998-2008) we calculated average annual erosivity. We also calculated erosivity from the monthly TMPA data product using the often-applied Fournier and modified Fournier indices. From literature 39 locations with long-term erosivity values were retrieved. Comparison showed that the modified Fournier index attains a much stronger correlation ( r = 0.84) than the results based on 3-hourly data ( r = 0.71). We conclude that (1) the 3-hourly and 0.25-degree TMPA data provide insufficient detail to represent high-intensity erosive events and (2) monthly satellite-based precipitation provides good spatial estimates of average annual erosivity.

  16. Software Effort Estimation Accuracy: A Comparative Study of Estimations Based on Software Sizing and Development Methods

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lafferty, Mark T.

    2010-01-01

    The number of project failures and those projects completed over cost and over schedule has been a significant issue for software project managers. Among the many reasons for failure, inaccuracy in software estimation--the basis for project bidding, budgeting, planning, and probability estimates--has been identified as a root cause of a high…

  17. Estimation of pyrethroid pesticide intake using regression modeling of food groups based on composite dietary samples

    EPA Science Inventory

    Population-based estimates of pesticide intake are needed to characterize exposure for particular demographic groups based on their dietary behaviors. Regression modeling performed on measurements of selected pesticides in composited duplicate diet samples allowed (1) estimation ...

  18. Methow River Studies, Washington: abundance estimates from Beaver Creek and the Chewuch River screw trap, methodology testing in the Whitefish Island side channel, and survival and detection estimates from hatchery fish releases, 2013

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Martens, Kyle D.; Fish, Teresa M.; Watson, Grace A.; Connolly, Patrick J.

    2014-01-01

    2008, focuses on the evaluation of the M2 reach (rkm 66– 80) of the mainstem Methow River prior to restoration actions planned by Reclamation and Yakama Nation. The M2 study was designed to help understand the inter-relationships between stream habitat and the life history of various fish species to explain potential success or limitations in response to restoration actions. To help document changes derived by restoration, two reference reaches (Upper Methow between rkm 85 and 90, and Chewuch River between rkm 4 and 11) were identified based on relative lack of disturbance, proximity to the restoration reach, and relative unconfined geomorphology. A control reach (Lower Methow between rkm 57 and 64, also referred to as “Silver Reach”) was 2 identified based on its similar disturbance as the reference reach, proximity to the restoration reach, and relatively unconfined geomorphology. Products to date include Barber and others (2011), Bellmore (2011), Tibbits and others (2012), Bellmore and others (2013), Benjamin and others (2013), Romine and others (2013b), Bellmore and other (2014), Martens and others (2014), and Martens and Connolly (2014). The third phase of work has been to help with the development and to provide data for modeling efforts. Most of the planned M2 reach restoration is focused on the creation or improvement of offchannel habitat, especially side channels. The pre-restoration portion of this study has been documented by Martens and Connolly (2014). Side channel restoration actions were initiated in 2012 (Whitefish Island side channel, also referred to as SC3; rkm 76) and are planned to continue over the next several years. The Whitefish Island side channel was modified to maintain hydrological connection with the mainstem throughout the year. In addition, several log structures were installed and pools were deepened to create fish habitat. Prior to restoration, this side channel would lose hydrological connection with the mainstem Methow River

  19. Robust and Accurate Vision-Based Pose Estimation Algorithm Based on Four Coplanar Feature Points

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Zimiao; Zhang, Shihai; Li, Qiu

    2016-01-01

    Vision-based pose estimation is an important application of machine vision. Currently, analytical and iterative methods are used to solve the object pose. The analytical solutions generally take less computation time. However, the analytical solutions are extremely susceptible to noise. The iterative solutions minimize the distance error between feature points based on 2D image pixel coordinates. However, the non-linear optimization needs a good initial estimate of the true solution, otherwise they are more time consuming than analytical solutions. Moreover, the image processing error grows rapidly with measurement range increase. This leads to pose estimation errors. All the reasons mentioned above will cause accuracy to decrease. To solve this problem, a novel pose estimation method based on four coplanar points is proposed. Firstly, the coordinates of feature points are determined according to the linear constraints formed by the four points. The initial coordinates of feature points acquired through the linear method are then optimized through an iterative method. Finally, the coordinate system of object motion is established and a method is introduced to solve the object pose. The growing image processing error causes pose estimation errors the measurement range increases. Through the coordinate system, the pose estimation errors could be decreased. The proposed method is compared with two other existing methods through experiments. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method works efficiently and stably. PMID:27999338

  20. Height estimations based on eye measurements throughout a gait cycle.

    PubMed

    Yang, Sylvia X M; Larsen, Peter K; Alkjær, Tine; Juul-Kristensen, Birgit; Simonsen, Erik B; Lynnerup, Niels

    2014-03-01

    Anthropometric measurements (e.g. the height to the head, nose tip, eyes or shoulders) of a perpetrator based on video material may be used in criminal cases. However, several height measurements may be difficult to assess as the perpetrators may be disguised by clothes or headwear. The eye height (EH) measurement, on the other hand, is less prone to concealment. The purpose of the present study was to investigate: (1) how the eye height varies during the gait cycle, and (2) how the eye height changes with head position. The eyes were plotted manually in APAS for 16 test subjects during a complete gait cycle. The influence of head tilt on the EH was investigated in 20 healthy men. Markers were attached to the face and the subjects were instructed to stand relaxed, tilt their head to the right, to the left, forward and backward. The marker data for the right eye were used to calculate the EH. The respective deviation and SD from the relaxed standing EH and the EH in the Frankfurt plane, left tilted, right tilted, forward tilted and backward tilted, in addition to the corresponding head tilt angles were calculated. There was no correlation between the height of the subject and the maximum vertical displacement of the EH throughout the gait cycle nor between height of the subjects and the variation of the EH throughout the gait cycle. The average maximum vertical displacement for the test subject group was 4.76 cm (± 1.56 cm). The average EH was lower when the subjects were standing in the relaxed position than in the Frankfurt plane. The average EH was higher in the relaxed position than when the subjects tilted their heads, except when they tilted their heads backwards. The subjects had a slightly larger range of motion to the right than to the left, which was not significant. The results of this study provide a range for eye height estimates and may be readily implemented in forensic case work. It can be used as a reference in height estimates in cases with height

  1. Carbon Dioxide and Methane Column Abundances Retrieved from Ground-Based Near-Infrared Solar Spectra and Comparison with In Situ Aircraft Profiles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Washenfelder, R. A.; Toon, G. C.; Blavier, J.; Wennberg, P. O.; Yang, Z.; Vay, S. A.; Sachse, G. W.; Blake, D. R.; Matross, D. M.; Gerbig, C.

    2004-12-01

    We have developed an automated observatory for measuring ground-based column abundances of CO2, CH4, CO, N2O, O2, H2O, and HF. Near-infrared spectra of the direct sun are measured between 3,900 - 15,600 cm-1 (0.67 - 2.56 μ m) by a Bruker 125HR Fourier Transform Spectrometer. This is the first laboratory in a proposed network of ground-based solar observatories that will be used for carbon cycle studies and validation of spaceborne column measurements of greenhouse gases. The laboratory was assembled in Pasadena, California and then permanently deployed to northern Wisconsin during May 2004. It is located in the heavily forested Chequamegon National Forest at the WLEF Tall Tower site, 14 km east of Park Falls, Wisconsin. This site was chosen because NOAA CMDL and other groups conduct intensive measurements in the area, including continuous monitoring of CO2 at six heights on the 447-m tall tower. CO2 and CH4 column abundances for May - November 2004 demonstrate ˜0.1% precision. The seasonal drawdown of CO2 is recognizable within the late-May column abundances. As part of the INTEX and COBRA campaigns, the DC-8 or King Air recorded in situ measurements during profiles over the WLEF site during five dates in July and August 2004. We will compare the column abundances of CO2, CH4, and CO with these in situ aircraft measurements.

  2. Application of genetic algorithm to hexagon-based motion estimation.

    PubMed

    Kung, Chih-Ming; Cheng, Wan-Shu; Jeng, Jyh-Horng

    2014-01-01

    With the improvement of science and technology, the development of the network, and the exploitation of the HDTV, the demands of audio and video become more and more important. Depending on the video coding technology would be the solution for achieving these requirements. Motion estimation, which removes the redundancy in video frames, plays an important role in the video coding. Therefore, many experts devote themselves to the issues. The existing fast algorithms rely on the assumption that the matching error decreases monotonically as the searched point moves closer to the global optimum. However, genetic algorithm is not fundamentally limited to this restriction. The character would help the proposed scheme to search the mean square error closer to the algorithm of full search than those fast algorithms. The aim of this paper is to propose a new technique which focuses on combing the hexagon-based search algorithm, which is faster than diamond search, and genetic algorithm. Experiments are performed to demonstrate the encoding speed and accuracy of hexagon-based search pattern method and proposed method.

  3. Unsupervised, Robust Estimation-based Clustering for Multispectral Images

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Netanyahu, Nathan S.

    1997-01-01

    To prepare for the challenge of handling the archiving and querying of terabyte-sized scientific spatial databases, the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center's Applied Information Sciences Branch (AISB, Code 935) developed a number of characterization algorithms that rely on supervised clustering techniques. The research reported upon here has been aimed at continuing the evolution of some of these supervised techniques, namely the neural network and decision tree-based classifiers, plus extending the approach to incorporating unsupervised clustering algorithms, such as those based on robust estimation (RE) techniques. The algorithms developed under this task should be suited for use by the Intelligent Information Fusion System (IIFS) metadata extraction modules, and as such these algorithms must be fast, robust, and anytime in nature. Finally, so that the planner/schedule module of the IlFS can oversee the use and execution of these algorithms, all information required by the planner/scheduler must be provided to the IIFS development team to ensure the timely integration of these algorithms into the overall system.

  4. EEG-based workload estimation across affective contexts

    PubMed Central

    Mühl, Christian; Jeunet, Camille; Lotte, Fabien

    2014-01-01

    Workload estimation from electroencephalographic signals (EEG) offers a highly sensitive tool to adapt the human–computer interaction to the user state. To create systems that reliably work in the complexity of the real world, a robustness against contextual changes (e.g., mood), has to be achieved. To study the resilience of state-of-the-art EEG-based workload classification against stress we devise a novel experimental protocol, in which we manipulated the affective context (stressful/non-stressful) while the participant solved a task with two workload levels. We recorded self-ratings, behavior, and physiology from 24 participants to validate the protocol. We test the capability of different, subject-specific workload classifiers using either frequency-domain, time-domain, or both feature varieties to generalize across contexts. We show that the classifiers are able to transfer between affective contexts, though performance suffers independent of the used feature domain. However, cross-context training is a simple and powerful remedy allowing the extraction of features in all studied feature varieties that are more resilient to task-unrelated variations in signal characteristics. Especially for frequency-domain features, across-context training is leading to a performance comparable to within-context training and testing. We discuss the significance of the result for neurophysiology-based workload detection in particular and for the construction of reliable passive brain–computer interfaces in general. PMID:24971046

  5. Satellite-based estimates of Antarctic surface meltwater fluxes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Trusel, Luke D.; Frey, Karen E.; Das, Sarah B.; Munneke, Peter Kuipers; Broeke, Michiel R.

    2013-12-01

    study generates novel satellite-derived estimates of Antarctic-wide annual (1999-2009) surface meltwater production using an empirical relationship between radar backscatter from the QuikSCAT (QSCAT) satellite and melt calculated from in situ energy balance observations. The resulting QSCAT-derived melt fluxes significantly agree with output from the regional climate model RACMO2.1 and with independent ground-based observations. The high-resolution (4.45 km) QSCAT-based melt fluxes uniquely detect interannually persistent and intense melt (>400 mm water equivalent (w.e.) year-1) on interior Larsen C Ice Shelf that is not simulated by RACMO2.1. This supports a growing understanding of the importance of a föhn effect in this region and quantifies the resulting locally enhanced melting that is spatially consistent with recently observed Larsen C thinning. These new results highlight important cryosphere-climate interactions and processes that are presently not fully captured by the coarser-resolution (27 km) regional climate model.

  6. [Optimized Spectral Indices Based Estimation of Forage Grass Biomass].

    PubMed

    An, Hai-bo; Li, Fei; Zhao, Meng-li; Liu, Ya-jun

    2015-11-01

    As an important indicator of forage production, aboveground biomass will directly illustrate the growth of forage grass. Therefore, Real-time monitoring biomass of forage grass play a crucial role in performing suitable grazing and management in artificial and natural grassland. However, traditional sampling and measuring are time-consuming and labor-intensive. Recently, development of hyperspectral remote sensing provides the feasibility in timely and nondestructive deriving biomass of forage grass. In the present study, the main objectives were to explore the robustness of published and optimized spectral indices in estimating biomass of forage grass in natural and artificial pasture. The natural pasture with four grazing density (control, light grazing, moderate grazing and high grazing) was designed in desert steppe, and different forage cultivars with different N rate were conducted in artificial forage fields in Inner Mongolia. The canopy reflectance and biomass in each plot were measured during critical stages. The result showed that, due to the influence in canopy structure and biomass, the canopy reflectance have a great difference in different type of forage grass. The best performing spectral index varied in different species of forage grass with different treatments (R² = 0.00-0.69). The predictive ability of spectral indices decreased under low biomass of desert steppe, while red band based spectral indices lost sensitivity under moderate-high biomass of forage maize. When band combinations of simple ratio and normalized difference spectral indices were optimized in combined datasets of natural and artificial grassland, optimized spectral indices significant increased predictive ability and the model between biomass and optimized spectral indices had the highest R² (R² = 0.72) compared to published spectral indices. Sensitive analysis further confirmed that the optimized index had the lowest noise equivalent and were the best performing index in

  7. Water balance-based estimation of groundwater recharge in the Lake Chad Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Babamaaji, R. A.; Lee, J.

    2012-12-01

    Lake Chad Basin (LCB) has experienced drastic changes of land cover and poor water management practices during the last 50 years. The successive droughts in the 1970s and 1980s resulted in the shortage of surface water and groundwater resources. This problem of drought and shortage of water has a devastating implication on the natural resources of the Basin with great consequence on food security, poverty reduction and quality of life of the inhabitants in the LCB. Therefore, understanding the change of land use and its characteristics must be a first step to find how such changes disturb the water cycle especially the groundwater in the LCB. The abundance of groundwater is affected by the climate change through the interaction with surface water, such as lakes and rivers, and vertical recharge through an infiltration process. Quantifying the impact of climate change on the groundwater resource requires not only reliable forecasting of changes in the major climatic variables, but also accurate estimation of groundwater recharge. Spatial variations in the land use/land cover, soil texture, topographic slope, and meteorological conditions should be accounted for in the recharge estimation. In this study, we employed a spatially distributed water balance model WetSpass to simulate a long-term average change of groundwater recharge in the LCB of Africa. WetSpass is a water balance-based model to estimate seasonal average spatial distribution of surface runoff, evapotranspiration, and groundwater recharge. The model is especially suitable for studying the effect of land use/land cover change on the water regime in the LCB. The present study describes the concept of the model and its application to the development of recharge map of the LCB.

  8. Abundances of volatile-bearing phases in carbonaceous chondrites and cooling rates of meteorites based on cation ordering of orthopyroxenes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ganguly, Jibamitra

    1989-01-01

    Results of preliminary calculations of volatile abundances in carbonaceous chondrites are discussed. The method (Ganguly 1982) was refined for the calculation of cooling rate on the basis of cation ordering in orthopyroxenes, and it was applied to the derivation of cooling rates of some stony meteorites. Evaluation of cooling rate is important to the analysis of condensation, accretion, and post-accretionary metamorphic histories of meteorites. The method of orthopyroxene speedometry is widely applicable to meteorites and would be very useful in the understanding of the evolutionary histories of carbonaceous chondrites, especially since the conventional metallographic and fission track methods yield widely different results in many cases. Abstracts are given which summarize the major conclusions of the volatile abundance and cooling rate calculations.

  9. 48 CFR 2452.216-70 - Estimated cost, base fee and award fee.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 6 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 true Estimated cost, base fee... Provisions and Clauses 2452.216-70 Estimated cost, base fee and award fee. As prescribed in 2416.406(e)(1), insert the following clause in all cost-plus-award-fee contracts: Estimated Cost, Base Fee and Award...

  10. 48 CFR 2452.216-70 - Estimated cost, base fee and award fee.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 6 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Estimated cost, base fee... Provisions and Clauses 2452.216-70 Estimated cost, base fee and award fee. As prescribed in 2416.406(e)(1), insert the following clause in all cost-plus-award-fee contracts: Estimated Cost, Base Fee and Award...

  11. First estimates of global free-tropospheric NO2 abundances derived using a cloud-slicing technique applied to satellite observations from the Aura Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Choi, S.; Joiner, J.; Choi, Y.; Duncan, B. N.; Vasilkov, A.; Krotkov, N.; Bucsela, E.

    2014-10-01

    We derive free-tropospheric NO2 volume mixing ratios (VMRs) by applying a cloud-slicing technique to data from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on the Aura satellite. In the cloud-slicing approach, the slope of the above-cloud NO2 column versus the cloud scene pressure is proportional to the NO2 VMR. In this work, we use a sample of nearby OMI pixel data from a single orbit for the linear fit. The OMI data include cloud scene pressures from the rotational-Raman algorithm and above-cloud NO2 vertical column density (VCD) (defined as the NO2 column from the cloud scene pressure to the top of the atmosphere) from a differential optical absorption spectroscopy (DOAS) algorithm. We compare OMI-derived NO2 VMRs with in situ aircraft profiles measured during the NASA Intercontinental Chemical Transport Experiment Phase B (INTEX-B) campaign in 2006. The agreement is generally within the estimated uncertainties when appropriate data screening is applied. We then derive a global seasonal climatology of free-tropospheric NO2 VMR in cloudy conditions. Enhanced NO2 in the free troposphere commonly appears near polluted urban locations where NO2 produced in the boundary layer may be transported vertically out of the boundary layer and then horizontally away from the source. Signatures of lightning NO2 are also shown throughout low and middle latitude regions in summer months. A profile analysis of our cloud-slicing data indicates signatures of lightning-generated NO2 in the upper troposphere. Comparison of the climatology with simulations from the global modeling initiative (GMI) for cloudy conditions (cloud optical depth > 10) shows similarities in the spatial patterns of continental pollution outflow. However, there are also some differences in the seasonal variation of free-tropospheric NO2 VMRs near highly populated regions and in areas affected by lightning-generated NOx.

  12. Quantified abundance of magnetofossils at the Paleocene-Eocene boundary from synchrotron-based transmission X-ray microscopy.

    PubMed

    Wang, Huapei; Wang, Jun; Chen-Wiegart, Yu-Chen Karen; Kent, Dennis V

    2015-10-13

    The Paleocene-Eocene boundary (∼55.8 million years ago) is marked by an abrupt negative carbon isotope excursion (CIE) that coincides with an oxygen isotope decrease interpreted as the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum. Biogenic magnetite (Fe3O4) in the form of giant (micron-sized) spearhead-like and spindle-like magnetofossils, as well as nano-sized magnetotactic bacteria magnetosome chains, have been reported in clay-rich sediments in the New Jersey Atlantic Coastal Plain and were thought to account for the distinctive single-domain magnetic properties of these sediments. Uncalibrated strong field magnet extraction techniques have been typically used to provide material for scanning and transmission electron microscopic imaging of these magnetic particles, whose concentration in the natural sediment is thus difficult to quantify. In this study, we use a recently developed ultrahigh-resolution, synchrotron-based, full-field transmission X-ray microscope to study the iron-rich minerals within the clay sediment in their bulk state. We are able to estimate the total magnetization concentration of the giant biogenic magnetofossils to be only ∼10% of whole sediment. Along with previous rock magnetic studies on the CIE clay, we suggest that most of the magnetite in the clay occurs as isolated, near-equidimensional nanoparticles, a suggestion that points to a nonbiogenic origin, such as comet impact plume condensates in what may be very rapidly deposited CIE clays.

  13. Ground-based infrared measurements of HNO3 total column abundances - Long-term trend and variability

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rinsland, C. P.; Zander, R.; Demoulin, P.

    1991-01-01

    The long-term trend and variability of the total column amount of atmospheric nitric acid (HNO3) have been investigated. The study was based on time series of infrared solar absorption spectra recorded at two sites, the International Scientific Station of the Jungfraujoch (ISSJ) in the Swiss Alps (altitude 3.6 km, latitude 46.5 N, longitude 8.0 E) and the National Solar Observatory McMath solar telescope facility on Kitt Peak (altitude 2.1 km, latitude 31.9 N, longitude 111.6 W), Arizona. Measurements of HNO3 absorption features recorded at Kitt Peak between 1980 and 1990 and measurements of the same features in ISSJ solar spectra obtained in June 1951 and June 1986 to June 1990 provide quantitative estimates of the long-term trend in the HNO3 total vertical column. It is found that the trend deduced for each site is equal to zero within the measurement uncertainty. The modern ISSJ measurements show that the fitted trend is (-0.16 + or - 0.50) percent/yr, 2 sigma, which indicates that there has been no detectable change in HNO3 total column over three decades. The Kitt Peak measurements show marked variability in the HNO3 total column, but no obvious seasonal cycle is observed.

  14. Quantified abundance of magnetofossils at the Paleocene–Eocene boundary from synchrotron-based transmission X-ray microscopy

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Huapei; Wang, Jun; Chen-Wiegart, Yu-chen Karen; Kent, Dennis V.

    2015-01-01

    The Paleocene–Eocene boundary (∼55.8 million years ago) is marked by an abrupt negative carbon isotope excursion (CIE) that coincides with an oxygen isotope decrease interpreted as the Paleocene–Eocene thermal maximum. Biogenic magnetite (Fe3O4) in the form of giant (micron-sized) spearhead-like and spindle-like magnetofossils, as well as nano-sized magnetotactic bacteria magnetosome chains, have been reported in clay-rich sediments in the New Jersey Atlantic Coastal Plain and were thought to account for the distinctive single-domain magnetic properties of these sediments. Uncalibrated strong field magnet extraction techniques have been typically used to provide material for scanning and transmission electron microscopic imaging of these magnetic particles, whose concentration in the natural sediment is thus difficult to quantify. In this study, we use a recently developed ultrahigh-resolution, synchrotron-based, full-field transmission X-ray microscope to study the iron-rich minerals within the clay sediment in their bulk state. We are able to estimate the total magnetization concentration of the giant biogenic magnetofossils to be only ∼10% of whole sediment. Along with previous rock magnetic studies on the CIE clay, we suggest that most of the magnetite in the clay occurs as isolated, near-equidimensional nanoparticles, a suggestion that points to a nonbiogenic origin, such as comet impact plume condensates in what may be very rapidly deposited CIE clays. PMID:26420869

  15. Monitoring waterbird abundance in wetlands: The importance of controlling results for variation in water depth

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bolduc, F.; Afton, A.D.

    2008-01-01

    Wetland use by waterbirds is highly dependent on water depth, and depth requirements generally vary among species. Furthermore, water depth within wetlands often varies greatly over time due to unpredictable hydrological events, making comparisons of waterbird abundance among wetlands difficult as effects of habitat variables and water depth are confounded. Species-specific relationships between bird abundance and water depth necessarily are non-linear; thus, we developed a methodology to correct waterbird abundance for variation in water depth, based on the non-parametric regression of these two variables. Accordingly, we used the difference between observed and predicted abundances from non-parametric regression (analogous to parametric residuals) as an estimate of bird abundance at equivalent water depths. We scaled this difference to levels of observed and predicted abundances using the formula: ((observed - predicted abundance)/(observed + predicted abundance)) ?? 100. This estimate also corresponds to the observed:predicted abundance ratio, which allows easy interpretation of results. We illustrated this methodology using two hypothetical species that differed in water depth and wetland preferences. Comparisons of wetlands, using both observed and relative corrected abundances, indicated that relative corrected abundance adequately separates the effect of water depth from the effect of wetlands. ?? 2008 Elsevier B.V.

  16. Stochastic physical ecohydrologic-based model for estimating irrigation requirement

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alizadeh, H.; Mousavi, S. J.

    2012-04-01

    Climate uncertainty affects both natural and managed hydrological systems. Therefore, methods which could take this kind of uncertainty into account are of primal importance for management of ecosystems, especially agricultural ecosystems. One of the famous problems in these ecosystems is crop water requirement estimation under climatic uncertainty. Both deterministic physically-based methods and stochastic time series modeling have been utilized in the literature. Like other fields of hydroclimatic sciences, there is a vast area in irrigation process modeling for developing approaches integrating physics of the process and statistics aspects. This study is about deriving closed-form expressions for probability density function (p.d.f.) of irrigation water requirement using a stochastic physically-based model, which considers important aspects of plant, soil, atmosphere and irrigation technique and policy in a coherent framework. An ecohydrologic stochastic model, building upon the stochastic differential equation of soil moisture dynamics at root zone, is employed as a basis for deriving the expressions considering temporal stochasticity of rainfall. Due to distinguished nature of stochastic processes of micro and traditional irrigation applications, two different methodologies have been used. Micro-irrigation application has been modeled through dichotomic process. Chapman-Kolomogrov equation of time integral of the dichotomic process for transient condition has been solved to derive analytical expressions for probability density function of seasonal irrigation requirement. For traditional irrigation, irrigation application during growing season has been modeled using a marked point process. Using the renewal theory, probability mass function of seasonal irrigation requirement, which is a discrete-value quantity, has been analytically derived. The methodology deals with estimation of statistical properties of the total water requirement in a growing season that

  17. Direction-of-Arrival Estimation Based on Joint Sparsity

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Junhua; Huang, Zhitao; Zhou, Yiyu

    2011-01-01

    We present a DOA estimation algorithm, called Joint-Sparse DOA to address the problem of Direction-of-Arrival (DOA) estimation using sensor arrays. Firstly, DOA estimation is cast as the joint-sparse recovery problem. Then, norm is approximated by an arctan function to represent joint sparsity and DOA estimation can be obtained by minimizing the approximate norm. Finally, the minimization problem is solved by a quasi-Newton method to estimate DOA. Simulation results show that our algorithm has some advantages over most existing methods: it needs a small number of snapshots to estimate DOA, while the number of sources need not be known a priori. Besides, it improves the resolution, and it can also handle the coherent sources well. PMID:22164122

  18. Estimation and classification by sigmoids based on mutual information

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Baram, Yoram

    1994-01-01

    An estimate of the probability density function of a random vector is obtained by maximizing the mutual information between the input and the output of a feedforward network of sigmoidal units with respect to the input weights. Classification problems can be solved by selecting the class associated with the maximal estimated density. Newton's s method, applied to an estimated density, yields a recursive maximum likelihood estimator, consisting of a single internal layer of sigmoids, for a random variable or a random sequence. Applications to the diamond classification and to the prediction of a sun-spot process are demonstrated.

  19. Development of a PCR/ligase detection reaction/nanogold-based universal array approach for the detection of low-abundant DNA point mutations.

    PubMed

    Yi, Ping; Lu, Weiping; Guo, Jianxin; Liu, Qiang; Chen, Zhuqin; Han, Jian; Li, Li

    2011-12-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate the feasibility of combining PCR and ligase detection reaction (LDR) with a novel nano-gold-based universal array for the detection of low abundance point mutations from fetal DNA in maternal plasma samples. The sequence with the target point mutation was first amplified by PCR and then used as a template for LDR in which the upstream specific primer contains a tag sequence at the 5'-end. After hybridization to the probes of a universal array containing anti-tag sequences, the ligated products were bound to streptavidin-labeled nano-gold particles and the hybridization signals were amplified by silver staining. The PCR/LDR/universal array was first tested for sensitivity with nano-gold-based detection, and then this system was applied to detect the low abundance specific mutation IVS2 654(C→T) of the β-globin gene in a model using maternal plasma samples. The nano-gold-based method unambiguously identified a single mutation at a sensitivity of 1:1000. This approach was applied to detect the p