Science.gov

Sample records for accelerated population growth

  1. Simulating Population Growth.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Byington, Scott

    1997-01-01

    Presents a strategy to help students grasp the important implications of population growth. Involves an interactive demonstration that allows students to experience exponential and logistic population growth followed by a discussion of the implications of population-growth principles. (JRH)

  2. [Population Growth and Development].

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Clausen, A. W.

    Rapid population growth as a central development problem, the proper domain of government in reducing population growth, and effective measures which can be taken to reduce fertility are examined. Rapid population growth puts a brake on development because it exacerbates the difficult choice between higher consumption now and the investment needed…

  3. Population growth and economic growth.

    PubMed

    Narayana, D L

    1984-01-01

    This discussion of the issues relating to the problem posed by population explosion in the developing countries and economic growth in the contemporary world covers the following: predictions of economic and social trends; the Malthusian theory of population; the classical or stationary theory of population; the medical triage model; ecological disaster; the Global 2000 study; the limits to growth; critiques of the Limits to Growth model; nonrenewable resources; food and agriculture; population explosion and stabilization; space and ocean colonization; and the limits perspective. The Limits to Growth model, a general equilibrium anti-growth model, is the gloomiest economic model ever constructed. None of the doomsday models, the Malthusian theory, the classical stationary state, the neo-Malthusian medical triage model, the Global 2000 study, are so far reaching in their consequences. The course of events that followed the publication of the "Limits to Growth" in 1972 in the form of 2 oil shocks, food shock, pollution shock, and price shock seemed to bear out formally the gloomy predictions of the thesis with a remarkable speed. The 12 years of economic experience and the knowledge of resource trends postulate that even if the economic pressures visualized by the model are at work they are neither far reaching nor so drastic. Appropriate action can solve them. There are several limitations to the Limits to Growth model. The central theme of the model, which is overshoot and collapse, is unlikely to be the course of events. The model is too aggregative to be realistic. It exaggerates the ecological disaster arising out of the exponential growth of population and industry. The gross underestimation of renewable resources is a basic flaw of the model. The most critical weakness of the model is its gross underestimation of the historical trend of technological progress and the technological possiblities within industry and agriculture. The model does correctly emphasize

  4. Population growth and economic growth.

    PubMed

    Narayana, D L

    1984-01-01

    This discussion of the issues relating to the problem posed by population explosion in the developing countries and economic growth in the contemporary world covers the following: predictions of economic and social trends; the Malthusian theory of population; the classical or stationary theory of population; the medical triage model; ecological disaster; the Global 2000 study; the limits to growth; critiques of the Limits to Growth model; nonrenewable resources; food and agriculture; population explosion and stabilization; space and ocean colonization; and the limits perspective. The Limits to Growth model, a general equilibrium anti-growth model, is the gloomiest economic model ever constructed. None of the doomsday models, the Malthusian theory, the classical stationary state, the neo-Malthusian medical triage model, the Global 2000 study, are so far reaching in their consequences. The course of events that followed the publication of the "Limits to Growth" in 1972 in the form of 2 oil shocks, food shock, pollution shock, and price shock seemed to bear out formally the gloomy predictions of the thesis with a remarkable speed. The 12 years of economic experience and the knowledge of resource trends postulate that even if the economic pressures visualized by the model are at work they are neither far reaching nor so drastic. Appropriate action can solve them. There are several limitations to the Limits to Growth model. The central theme of the model, which is overshoot and collapse, is unlikely to be the course of events. The model is too aggregative to be realistic. It exaggerates the ecological disaster arising out of the exponential growth of population and industry. The gross underestimation of renewable resources is a basic flaw of the model. The most critical weakness of the model is its gross underestimation of the historical trend of technological progress and the technological possiblities within industry and agriculture. The model does correctly emphasize

  5. Modeling Exponential Population Growth

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McCormick, Bonnie

    2009-01-01

    The concept of population growth patterns is a key component of understanding evolution by natural selection and population dynamics in ecosystems. The National Science Education Standards (NSES) include standards related to population growth in sections on biological evolution, interdependence of organisms, and science in personal and social…

  6. Influence of volcanic activity on the population genetic structure of Hawaiian Tetragnatha spiders: Fragmentation, rapid population growth and the potential for accelerated evolution

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Vandergast, A.G.; Gillespie, R.G.; Roderick, G.K.

    2004-01-01

    Volcanic activity on the island of Hawaii results in a cyclical pattern of habitat destruction and fragmentation by lava, followed by habitat regeneration on newly formed substrates. While this pattern has been hypothesized to promote the diversification of Hawaiian lineages, there have been few attempts to link geological processes to measurable changes in population structure. We investigated the genetic structure of three species of Hawaiian spiders in forests fragmented by a 150-year-old lava flow on Mauna Loa Volcano, island of Hawaii: Tetragnatha quasimodo (forest and lava flow generalist), T. anuenue and T. brevignatha (forest specialists). To estimate fragmentation effects on population subdivision in each species, we examined variation in mitochondrial and nuclear genomes (DNA sequences and allozymes, respectively). Population subdivision was higher for forest specialists than for the generalist in fragments separated by lava. Patterns of mtDNA sequence evolution also revealed that forest specialists have undergone rapid expansion, while the generalist has experienced more gradual population growth. Results confirm that patterns of neutral genetic variation reflect patterns of volcanic activity in some Tetragnatha species. Our study further suggests that population subdivision and expansion can occur across small spatial and temporal scales, which may facilitate the rapid spread of new character states, leading to speciation as hypothesized by H. L. Carson 30 years ago.

  7. Teaching about Population Growth.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Otero, George G., Jr., Comp.

    This teaching guide contains 20 activities on population growth for students in grades 6-12. The purpose is to help students gain the skills, knowledge, and understanding of population dynamics so that they can make rational decisions and take responsible action regarding population matters and public policy. Activities are organized around the…

  8. Rapid population growth.

    PubMed

    1972-01-01

    At the current rate of population growth, world population by 2000 is expected to reach 7 billion or more, with developing countries accounting for some 5.4 billion, and economically advanced nations accounting for 1.6 billion. 'Population explosion' is the result of falling mortality rates and continuing high birth rates. Many European countries, and Japan, have already completed what is termed as demographic transition, that is, birth rates have fallen to below 20 births per 1000 population, death rates to 10/1000 population, and annual growth rates are 1% or less; annual growth rates for less developed countries ranged from 2 to 3.5%. Less developed countries can be divided into 3 groups: 1) countries with both high birth and death rates; 2) countries with high birth rates and low death rates; and 3) countries with intermediate and declining birth rates and low death rates. Rapid population growth has serious economic consequences. It encourages inequities in income distribution; it limits rate of growth of gross national product by holding down level of savings and capital investments; it exerts pressure on agricultural production and land; and it creates unemployment problems. In addition, the quality of education for increasing number of chidren is adversely affected, as high proportions of children reduce the amount that can be spent for the education of each child out of the educational budget; the cost and adequacy of health and welfare services are affected in a similar way. Other serious consequences of rapid population growth are maternal death and illness, and physical and mental retardation of children of very poor families. It is very urgent that over a billion births be prevented in the next 30 years to reduce annual population growth rate from the current 2% to 1% per year. PMID:12261450

  9. Global population growth.

    PubMed

    Langmore, J

    1992-07-01

    The global population passed 5 billion in 1987. In the year 2000 the world's population will be more than 6 billion, increasing by 90-100 million each year. About 95% of future demographic growth will take place in developing countries. The number of school age children is projected to increase from 940 million in 1980 to 1280 million by the year 2000. Under current labor force growth projections in developing countries, around 1.6 billion new jobs will have to be created between 1980 and 2025, with nearly 1 billion of them in Asia. Population often increases at a more rapid rate than agricultural growth. Food production per capita has declined in 70 developing countries. Much of the projected population increase will take place in environmentally fragile regions of the developing world. Population pressures contribute to deforestation, desertification, and scarcity of clean water. The United Nations Population Fund has estimated that in Asia over 43% of women not using family planning would like to postpone, space, or limit their childbearing. Over half of the world's couples of reproductive age are now using contraception. Family planning to postpone the first birth and to eliminate late child bearing would reduce both child loss and maternal illness and death. Both infant and maternal mortality are greater with higher order births. Reducing average family size is an effective way of reducing infant and maternal mortality. The World Bank has given high priority to population assistance, with large programs in Bangladesh, Egypt, India, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Thailand. Population assistance provided by the Australian International Development Assistance Bureau totaled about $4.5 million during 1989-90 and is expected to be about $8 million during 1991-92. Australia should increase the proportion of its development assistance budget devoted to population, and family planning programs should increase to around $26 million in line with other major donors.

  10. Laws of population growth.

    PubMed

    Rozenfeld, Hernán D; Rybski, Diego; Andrade, José S; Batty, Michael; Stanley, H Eugene; Makse, Hernán A

    2008-12-01

    An important issue in the study of cities is defining a metropolitan area, because different definitions affect conclusions regarding the statistical distribution of urban activity. A commonly employed method of defining a metropolitan area is the Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs), based on rules attempting to capture the notion of city as a functional economic region, and it is performed by using experience. The construction of MSAs is a time-consuming process and is typically done only for a subset (a few hundreds) of the most highly populated cities. Here, we introduce a method to designate metropolitan areas, denoted "City Clustering Algorithm" (CCA). The CCA is based on spatial distributions of the population at a fine geographic scale, defining a city beyond the scope of its administrative boundaries. We use the CCA to examine Gibrat's law of proportional growth, which postulates that the mean and standard deviation of the growth rate of cities are constant, independent of city size. We find that the mean growth rate of a cluster by utilizing the CCA exhibits deviations from Gibrat's law, and that the standard deviation decreases as a power law with respect to the city size. The CCA allows for the study of the underlying process leading to these deviations, which are shown to arise from the existence of long-range spatial correlations in population growth. These results have sociopolitical implications, for example, for the location of new economic development in cities of varied size. PMID:19033186

  11. Population Growth: Crisis and Challenge.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Beaton, John R., Ed.; Doberenz, Alexander R., Ed.

    The proceedings of this first annual symposium on population growth considers the consequences of this growth, along with possible means of regulation. Topics of speeches include: Population Outlook in Asia (Irene Taeuber); Malnutrition is a Problem of Ecology (Paul Gyorgy); The Leisure Explosion (E. H. Storey); Effects of Pollution on Population…

  12. [Population ethics and growth].

    PubMed

    Boim, D

    1988-01-01

    In order to formulate and implement a national demographic policy, various areas of science are called upon; however, since human lives are involved, ethical aspects play an important role not only in broad ideological terms, e.g, concerning overpopulation, but whenever practical decisions affecting technology and human resources are made. The article describes how the Catholic Church proposes certain "utopian" views or interpretations as part of an ethical "dynamism" and plurality needed when addressing the problem of overpopulation. 3 main starting point are defined for the determination of a population ethic: 1) ethics defined in terms of "nature," 2) in terms of the "human person," and 3) in terms of social "dialectic" involvement. The first point stresses the natural order of things as prescribed by God and impugns any birth control method; however, so-called natural birth control methods are allowed. The second point suggests that the human person is ethically center stage, a modernized position taken by the Church in tune with social realities and man's inherent intelligence. The primacy of live and responsibility is stressed as opposed to mere biological processes. Following this view, use of contraceptive, and even sterilization is allowed; however, abortion is excluded, since it means the elimination of a human life. The problem of overpopulation should be solved within the individual or micro-social context. The third point holds that it would be extremely myopic to reduce the position of the Church to advocating exclusively natural birth control methods while excluding social involvement. A "cosmic" view of faith would end putting material well-being before individual personal lives, would alert against egoism disguised as quality of life enhancement, and ultimately result in socially responsible fertility. In conclusion, the Church acknowledges that its contribution to the question of population ethics occurs in a pluralistic society that does not

  13. Front acceleration by dynamic selection in Fisher population waves

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bénichou, O.; Calvez, V.; Meunier, N.; Voituriez, R.

    2012-10-01

    We introduce a minimal model of population range expansion in which the phenotypes of individuals present no selective advantage and differ only in their diffusion rate. We show that such neutral phenotypic variability (i.e., that does not modify the growth rate) alone can yield phenotype segregation at the front edge, even in absence of genetic noise, and significantly impact the dynamical properties of the expansion wave. We present an exact asymptotic traveling wave solution and show analytically that phenotype segregation accelerates the front propagation. The results are compatible with field observations such as invasions of cane toads in Australia or bush crickets in Britain.

  14. Canada's population: growth and dualism.

    PubMed

    Beaujot, R P

    1978-04-01

    In Canada the current 1.3% population growth rate is causing some concern. Those concerned argue that such a rate of growth in combination with high levels of consumption could jeopardize the country's resource base and its comfortable style of living. Many Canadians are questioning high levels of immigration, for now that the fertility level is below replacement level, net immigration contributes substantially to population growth (over 1/3 in 1976). The growing proportion of non-Europeans among recent immigrants is causing resentment, and, in a tight job market, immigrants are regarded as threats to the World War 2 baby boom cohort who are now at working ages. The baby boom generation also puts stress on housing and health services, and it will increase the need for pension checks as it ages. Although French fertility is no longer high and immigration is no longer dominated by the British, the French group's 200-year struggle to preserve its identity continues on in the current effort of the Quebec government to enforce the use of French language by law within that province. Geography and climate dictate another demographic fact that divides the country and pervades its history. In addition to intense regionalism, uneven population distribution is responsible for 2 other concerns: the rapid growth of several already large cities and depopulation of many small communities. Focus in this discussion is on Canada's population growth in the past and as projected for the future, historical and current fertility, mortality and immigration trends, the search for a new immigration policy, the impact of the baby boom generation on the population's age structure and the problems this creates, and recent shifts in population distribution and in the country's ethnic and linguistic makeup. The population policy proposals evolved thus far involve to a great extent the use of immigration as a lever for achieving given population objectives.

  15. Population growth, inequality and poverty.

    PubMed

    Rodgers, G

    1983-01-01

    In this discussion of population growth, inequality, and poverty, the type of relationships that can be observed in intercountry comparisons are explored, reviewing the findings of several other authors, presenting some new estimates using an International Labor Office data bank, considering some basic conceptual problems, and examining some of the theoretical and empirical issues that call for investigation at the national level. Intercountry comparisons, despite their limitations, appear to be the easiest starting point for empirical analysis. The approach adopted by most researchers has been to select 1 or more population indicators and a measure of national income inequality and to explain intercountry differences in 1 or both of these variables in terms of each other and of other indicators of economic and social development. Underlying this methodology is the assumption that there are aspects of demographic and economic change that are common to all countries included in the study, so that differences between countries give some guide to the likely evolution over time within any 1 country. This can be accepted at best with reservations, but given the scarcity of data on the evolution of inequality over time, a working hypothesis of this type appears unavoidable. But, as many of the factors likely to cause population growth and inequality operate over extended periods of time, a dynamic model is indicated. A simpler model, which pays particular attention to lags and variations over time, may generate new insights. A summary of the results of a new international cross-section analysis set up on these lines is presented. Results suggest that contrary to expectations, reducing population growth does not seem to generate longterm benefits for the poor in this model, though some short term gains are found. Increasing equality does appear to generate some decline in population growth, as well as persistent gains in incomes among the poor, but the reductions in

  16. Food production and population growth.

    PubMed

    Pereira, H C

    1993-07-01

    Governments have frequently ignored the issue of population consumption exceeding the rates of renewal of natural resources. At the UN Conference on the Environment and Development in Rio de Janeiro, the issue of population growth was ignored in the agenda and action plan. In 1974, the UN World Population Conference suggested population stability would be possible if standards of living were raised. Industrialized nations spent half a century of active interference with the stability of global populations and failed to slow growth. 27 countries, mainly in tropical and subtropical zones, have an average cereal yield of under 1 ton per hectare, when improved seed and basic minimum fertilizer could yield 2 tons per hectare. Efforts to increase yields by the Consultative Group for International Agricultural research in 13 international centers resulted in global annual increases of about 50 million tons of grain (wheat and rice). Rainfed agriculture did not benefit as much because of climatic conditions. Where varieties of triticale, sorghum, millet, groundnuts, chick peas, cowpeas, beans, and cassava have helped increase food production, population growth has outstripped the gains. Agricultural fertilizers have been unfairly blamed for soil nutrient losses. Because of the age structure of population, the expected population growth can only be addressed through development of higher yields, new strains resistant to disease, and fertilizers. Slow release phosphates for tropical soils are needed. Shortages of domestic fuel divert much needed farmyard manure and composted crop residues. About 400 million tons of dung are thus wasted annually; food grain harvests are thus reduced by 14 million tons. About 50% of the 1133 million poorest people will live in Asia and another 25% will live in Sub-Saharan Africa, living on a total degraded area of 1219 million hectares. Imbalance between food supply and population need to be addressed on an effective international scale.

  17. Nutrition, Development, and Population Growth

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Berg, Alan

    1973-01-01

    Focuses on the problem of malnutrition in developing countries through a description of its interrelationships with human development, national economies, economic growth and income, agricultural advances, the crisis in infant feeding practices, new foods, and the population dilemma. Outlines possible future policy directions to significantly…

  18. Population Growth: Family Planning Programs.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Doberenz, Alexander R., Ed.; Taylor, N. Burwell G., Ed.

    These proceedings of the second annual symposium on population growth bring together speeches and panel discussions on family planning programs. Titles of speeches delivered are: Communicating Family Planning (Mrs. Jean Hutchinson); Effects of New York's Abortion Law Change (Dr. Walter Rogers); The Law and Birth Control, Sterilization and Abortion…

  19. Modeling Population Growth and Extinction

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gordon, Sheldon P.

    2009-01-01

    The exponential growth model and the logistic model typically introduced in the mathematics curriculum presume that a population grows exclusively. In reality, species can also die out and more sophisticated models that take the possibility of extinction into account are needed. In this article, two extensions of the logistic model are considered,…

  20. Political economy of population growth.

    PubMed

    Mehta, S; Mehta, H S

    1987-01-01

    Tracing the origin of political economy as a class-science, this paper focuses on the political economy of population growth. Exposing the limitations of Malthusian ideas and their invalidity even for the capitalist economies, it discusses the subsequent revival of the Malthusian model during the period of de-colonization and the misinterpretation of the relationship between population growth and development in the developing and developed countries. Taking India, China, and Japan as some case studies, the paper examines the relationship between birth rate levels and some correlates. It elaborates on the Indian experience, emphasizing the association of population growth with poverty and unemployment and lays bare some of the hidden causes of these phenomena. The authors examine some interstate variations in India and identify constraints and prospects of the existing population policy. The paper proposes outlines of a democratic population policy as an integral part of India's development strategy which should recognize human beings not simply as consumers but also as producers of material values. It pleads for 1) restructuring of property relations; 2) bringing down the mortality rates and raising of the literacy levels, especially among females; and 3) improving nutritional levels, as prerequisites for bringing down birth rates.

  1. Population growth and foreign policy.

    PubMed

    Flood, P J

    1978-04-01

    Australian foreign policy is examined in light of the population issue and its relationships to its developing Asian neighbors. Rapid population growth has been a 20th-century phenomenon. In the ESCAP region, almost all governments are anxious to reduce growth rates and welcome international assistance for population programs. The motivation of these governments seems to be both political and economic. Asian countries do not share the view expressed at Bucharest by Latin American and African representatives that high population growth rates are not a problem. Results of national family planning programs in 16 developing Asian countries are assessed. Major fertility decline has only occurred so far in the most prosperous of these countries. Future fertility trends are hard to predict. Present inadequate knowledge of the determinants of human fertility and limited knowledge regarding fertility limitation techniques hamper progress in population reduction. Australia has aided these countries in demographic training and data collection. For both economic and humanitarian reasons, this aid should be extended to program implementation.

  2. Anomalous Growth of Aging Populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grebenkov, Denis S.

    2016-04-01

    We consider a discrete-time population dynamics with age-dependent structure. At every time step, one of the alive individuals from the population is chosen randomly and removed with probability q_k depending on its age, whereas a new individual of age 1 is born with probability r. The model can also describe a single queue in which the service order is random while the service efficiency depends on a customer's "age" in the queue. We propose a mean field approximation to investigate the long-time asymptotic behavior of the mean population size. The age dependence is shown to lead to anomalous power-law growth of the population at the critical regime. The scaling exponent is determined by the asymptotic behavior of the probabilities q_k at large k. The mean field approximation is validated by Monte Carlo simulations.

  3. Environmental impact of population growth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Naylor, Rosamond; Matson, Pamela

    Earth's population currently numbers 5.4 billion; even given optimistic assumptions for reduction in growth rates, the number will double by the middle of the next century with most of the increase in the developing countries. Rapid population growth in the developing world raises the fundamental dilemma of how to alleviate chronic hunger and poverty in the short run while preserving the atmosphere and ecosystem services required for long-term human and biospheric sustenance. This dilemma, and the compromises required to solve it, were discussed by twenty-five researchers from five countries at the Aspen Global Change Institute 1992 Summer Science Session III, Food, Conservation, and Global Environmental Change: Is Compromise Possible?, held from August 16 to 28, in Aspen, Colo.

  4. Population growth can be checked.

    PubMed

    Shukla, J P

    Since independence, India's population size has doubled. The rate of growth was 2.5% during 1971-81, an increase from the rate of 2.15% observed during the 1951-61 period. The increase indicated that efforts to decrease population growth have not succeeded. The implications with respect to food, housing, clothing, education, and health facilities, which are fundamental to improving the physical quality of life, are severe. This demographic trend is a serious impediment to progress. The population growth is due to a constant birthrate and a sharp decline in mortality. Reducing the birthrate is necessary to reduce the rate of growth. An attitudinal change adopting the norm of family limitation should be encouraged through propaganda, socioeconomic programs, and religious and cultural organizations. Other measures to bring about a decline in the birthrate include: increasing the marriage age, and expanding educational and employment opportunities for women and girls. These measures will require substantial effort and time. Incentives may show more immediate effects. Monetary incentives are not desired because of the possibility of misuse. However the government could assume responsibility for the education and guarantee employment of children of couples who have only one child, and provide free education to children of couples with only 2 children. These incentives are not likely to be misused, can be available to all segments of the population, and involve no immediate large financial burden on the government. In addition, scholarships to the Harijan students should be limited to 2 per family. If these measures are accepted, they could quickly reduce the birth rate. PMID:12311944

  5. Rotary plant growth accelerating apparatus. [weightlessness

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dedolph, R. D. (Inventor)

    1975-01-01

    Rotary plant growth accelerating apparatus for increasing plant yields by effectively removing the growing plants from the constraints of gravity and increasing the plant yield per unit of space is described. The apparatus is comprised of cylindrical plant beds supported radially removed from a primary axis of rotation, with each plant bed being driven about its own secondary axis of rotation and simultaneously moved in a planetary path about the primary axis of rotation. Each plant bed is formed by an apertured outer cylinder, a perforated inner cylinder positioned coaxially, and rooting media disposed in the space between. A rotatable manifold distributes liquid nutrients and water to the rooting media through the perforations in the inner cylinders as the plant beds are continuously rotated by suitable drive means.

  6. [Population growth and the environment].

    PubMed

    Hogan, D J

    1991-01-01

    The impact of population growth on the enviornment has been extensively researched; it consists of the depletion of resources (agricultural land absorbed by urban expansion, loss of soils, desertification, loss of biodiversity, less availability of minerals, dwindling of petroleum reserves) and the degradation of natural resources (air and water pollution). For politicians, journalists, and environmentalists, population growth is identified as the principal villain, which is a unidirectional and negative opinion. Demography is supposed to examine the negative and positive effects of the environment-population relationship; however, it is postulated that there has not been much produced in the last 2 centuries in this area. Examination of the research literature does not indicate any view that transcends the Malthusian vision, although a few empirical studies exist (Hogan, 1989). Durham (1979) identified the replacement of subsistence agriculture by export-oriented agriculture as the key factor in overpopulation in El Salvador and Honduras that led to migrations and international conflicts. Tudela (1987) related a similar process in the Mexican state of Tabasco, where a period of malnutrition was accompanied by the expansion of export agriculture and nutritional improvements emanated only from recapturing subsistence agriculture. Fearnside (1986) researched the dynamics of the occupation and destruction of Amazonia. However, Kahn and Simon went further and denied the existence of real environmental problems: population is the ultimate resource, and the more minds, the more good ideas and solutions for any problem. However, in all these cases of pure or modified Malthusianism the relation of population/resources is reduced to a unidimensional relationship; and fertility, mortality, migration, marriage, and age structure receive little attention. A prime candidate for the attention of population specialists should be migration and patterns of settlement and their

  7. Human Population: Fundamentals of Growth and Change.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stauffer, Cheryl Lynn, Ed.

    This booklet focuses on eight elements of population dynamics: "Population Growth and Distribution"; "Natural Increase and Future Growth"; "Effect of Migration on Population Growth"; "Three Patterns of Population Change"; "Patterns of World Urbanization"; "The Status of Women"; "World Health"; and "Environmental Relationships." Charts and graphs…

  8. Population growth and global warming.

    PubMed

    Short, R V

    2009-01-01

    When I was born in 1930, the human population of the world was a mere 2 billion. Today, it has already reached 6.8 billion, and is projected to reach 9.1 billion by 2050. That is unsustainable. It is slowly beginning to dawn on us that Global Warming is the result of increasing human CO2 emissions, and the more people there are in the world, the worse it will become. Ultimately, it is the sky that will prove to be the limit to our numbers. The developed countries of the world are the most affluent, and also the most effluent, so we must lead by example and contain our own population growth and per capita emissions. We also have a big debt to repay to former colonial territories in Africa, Asia and South America, who desperately need our help to contain their excessive rates of population growth. Belgian and Dutch obstetricians and gynaecologists can play a critical role in this endeavour. After all, we already have a pill that will stop global warming - the oral contraceptive pill. PMID:25478068

  9. Population growth and global warming.

    PubMed

    Short, R V

    2009-01-01

    When I was born in 1930, the human population of the world was a mere 2 billion. Today, it has already reached 6.8 billion, and is projected to reach 9.1 billion by 2050. That is unsustainable. It is slowly beginning to dawn on us that Global Warming is the result of increasing human CO2 emissions, and the more people there are in the world, the worse it will become. Ultimately, it is the sky that will prove to be the limit to our numbers. The developed countries of the world are the most affluent, and also the most effluent, so we must lead by example and contain our own population growth and per capita emissions. We also have a big debt to repay to former colonial territories in Africa, Asia and South America, who desperately need our help to contain their excessive rates of population growth. Belgian and Dutch obstetricians and gynaecologists can play a critical role in this endeavour. After all, we already have a pill that will stop global warming - the oral contraceptive pill.

  10. The challenge of population growth.

    PubMed

    Smith, A W

    1984-03-01

    A precarious balance exists on earth between food and people, and at this time 800 million people are starving or close to starvation. When agriculture began, say 10,000 years ago, human populations were low. They stayed roughly in balance with the food supply. After agriculture, food supplies increased as did populations. The discovery of the New World opened vast resources, more land. Human numbers began to climb. Inventions and machines increased the ability to exploit resources. With modern medicine came a decline in death rates while birthrates remained high. The result is the 20th century population now totals 4.7 billion. By 2000, it will probably reach 6.1 billion and 7.8 billion by 2020. There will be insufficient cropland to produce the food all these people will need. People have been moving into sprawling urban centers of the poor countries. They come in search of jobs because there is not enough land to support them in rural areas. They increase the numbers of the unemployed and live in squalid shanty towns. Each agricultural or industrial advance that has occurred has been overwhelmed by ever increasing numbers of people in many less developed nations. There appears to be no "catching up" with the world's soaring rate of population. About 40 years ago this dilemma began to alarm some people. Fairfield Osborn and William Vogt believed that food and economic aid should continue but would be only a stopgap until developing countries were able to control their population growth. This meant cutting the birthrate. They reasoned that the best way to accomplish this was to educate people about contraceptives and other methods of limiting fertility. Private foundations funded educational programs, and many governments began giving out contraceptives at little or no cost. Despite such efforts, populations continued to increase in places that could least support more people. Already controversial, population control programs began to offer various incentives to

  11. Should We Promote Catch-Up Growth or Growth Acceleration in Low-Birthweight Infants?

    PubMed

    Singhal, Atul

    2015-01-01

    The idea that catch-up growth or growth acceleration has adverse effects on long-term health has generated much debate. This pattern of growth is most commonly seen after birth in infants of low birthweight; a global problem affecting over 20 million newborns a year. Faster postnatal growth may have short-term benefits but increases the long-term risk of aging, obesity and metabolic disease. Consequently, the optimal pattern of postnatal growth is unclear and is likely to differ in different populations. In infants born prematurely, faster postnatal growth improves long-term cognitive function but is associated with later risk factors for cardiovascular disease. So, on balance, the current policy is to promote faster growth by increasing nutrient intake (e.g. using higher-nutrient preterm formulas). Whether the same policy should apply to larger preterm infants is not known. Similarly, in infants from impoverished environments, the short-term benefits of faster postnatal growth may outweigh long-term disadvantages. However, whether similar considerations apply to infants from countries in transition is uncertain. For term infants from developed countries, promoting catch-up growth by nutritional supplementation has few advantages for short- or long-term health. Overall therefore, a 'one size fits all' solution for the optimal pattern of postnatal growth is unlikely. PMID:26111563

  12. Should We Promote Catch-Up Growth or Growth Acceleration in Low-Birthweight Infants?

    PubMed

    Singhal, Atul

    2015-01-01

    The idea that catch-up growth or growth acceleration has adverse effects on long-term health has generated much debate. This pattern of growth is most commonly seen after birth in infants of low birthweight; a global problem affecting over 20 million newborns a year. Faster postnatal growth may have short-term benefits but increases the long-term risk of aging, obesity and metabolic disease. Consequently, the optimal pattern of postnatal growth is unclear and is likely to differ in different populations. In infants born prematurely, faster postnatal growth improves long-term cognitive function but is associated with later risk factors for cardiovascular disease. So, on balance, the current policy is to promote faster growth by increasing nutrient intake (e.g. using higher-nutrient preterm formulas). Whether the same policy should apply to larger preterm infants is not known. Similarly, in infants from impoverished environments, the short-term benefits of faster postnatal growth may outweigh long-term disadvantages. However, whether similar considerations apply to infants from countries in transition is uncertain. For term infants from developed countries, promoting catch-up growth by nutritional supplementation has few advantages for short- or long-term health. Overall therefore, a 'one size fits all' solution for the optimal pattern of postnatal growth is unlikely.

  13. Population and growth causality in developing countries.

    PubMed

    Kapuria-foreman, V

    1995-07-01

    This study empirically tests the null hypotheses of no causality between population growth and economic growth and of no causality between economic growth and population growth in 15 developing countries. The model follows the Cheng Hsiao form with lag lengths to minimize Akaike's Final Prediction Error (FPE). Equations are run separately for each country. Lag lengths and Granger causality test were chosen according to three steps. 1) Each of the variables was regressed on its own lagged values with a maximum lag of five years. A lag length was chosen that minimized FPE, which was calculated for each regression. 2) Bivariate regressions were run with a fixed lag length for population growth and mixed lag lengths for the other variable, until the lag length which minimized FPE was determined. 3) The last step involved checking the lag length of population growth by keeping the lag fixed for economic growth. The economic growth measure was gross domestic product per capita. Findings indicate that in seven countries the null hypothesis of no causality between population growth and economic growth, either positive or negative, cannot be rejected (Ghana, Sri Lanka, Bolivia, Philippines, Syria, Thailand, and Argentina). In Nepal, India, China, Guatemala, Peru, Turkey, Chile, and Mexico lagged values of population growth improve predictions of economic growth. Higher economic growth has no significant effect on population growth rates in Nepal, Bolivia, Philippines, Guatemala, Peru, Thailand, Argentina, and Mexico. Interaction between economic growth and population growth was found in India, China, Turkey, and Chile. The direction of causation tests indicate that population growth has a significant positive impact on income growth in China, Guatemala, Turkey, Chile, and Mexico. India shows a negative impact of population growth on income. A significant negative impact of economic growth on population growth is evident only in Sri Lanka. There is weak evidence of a

  14. Acceleration of Fatigue Crack Growth after Overload in Carbon Steel

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yamauchi, A.; Miyahara, H.; Makabe, C.; Miyazaki, T.

    The effects of an overload on fatigue crack growth behavior have been investigated by using carbon steel. Delayed retardation and acceleration of crack growth were both observed. These phenomena depended not only on overload conditions but also on the baseline stress conditions. Moreover, the mechanical properties of the materials affected the crack growth rate after overload. It was found that crack growth accelerated when tensile residual stress was distributed in front of the crack tip. The residual stress distribution is related to the crack opening geometry at the overload stage.

  15. Population size, distribution and growth in Iran.

    PubMed

    Kamiar, M

    1985-01-01

    The author examines population size, distribution, and growth in Iran using data for 1966, 1976 census data, and some historical data for the nineteenth century. "This paper discusses changes in the size of population through time, population distribution, and regional patterns of population growth of the 23 provinces. It has been argued in this paper that because of a large family size norm as a religious duty to increase the numbers of the Islamic faith, early age at marriage, especially among females, common practice of polygamy, and the war with Iraq, population will grow even faster. It is concluded that population policy must be integrated into the national development plans."

  16. Accelerated growth of calcium silicate hydrates: Experiments and simulations

    SciTech Connect

    Nicoleau, Luc

    2011-12-15

    Despite the usefulness of isothermal calorimetry in cement analytics, without any further computations this brings only little information on the nucleation and growth of hydrates. A model originally developed by Garrault et al. is used in this study in order to simulate hydration curves of cement obtained by calorimetry with different known hardening accelerators. The limited basis set of parameters used in this model, having a physical or chemical significance, is valuable for a better understanding of mechanisms underlying in the acceleration of C-S-H precipitation. Alite hydration in presence of four different types of hardening accelerators was investigated. It is evidenced that each accelerator type plays a specific role on one or several growth parameters and that the model may support the development of new accelerators. Those simulations supported by experimental observations enable us to follow the formation of the C-S-H layer around grains and to extract interesting information on its apparent permeability.

  17. Hispanic Population Growth and Rural Income Inequality

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Parrado, Emilio A.; Kandel, William A.

    2010-01-01

    We analyze the relationship between Hispanic population growth and changes in U.S. rural income inequality from 1990 through 2000. Applying comparative approaches used for urban areas we disentangle Hispanic population growth's contribution to inequality by comparing and statistically modeling changes in the family income Gini coefficient across…

  18. Population growth: ecological success or development handicap?

    PubMed

    Coleman, D

    1991-01-01

    "This paper considers whether biological criteria of reproductive success are useful in considering the causes and consequences of...human population growth. Particular attention is given to the relative rates of growth of different human groups. The paper considers mechanisms of human population regulation, their classification as 'demographic regimes', and the relative importance of 'positive' and 'preventive' checks. It concludes that while in general rapid population growth now usually confers disadvantages in terms of human welfare, more traditional interpretations may still be appropriate in view of, for example, the increasing political and social influence enjoyed by rapidly increasing minorities compared with other populations in the same society which have lower rates of reproduction."

  19. Population aging and endogenous economic growth.

    PubMed

    Prettner, Klaus

    2013-04-01

    We investigate the consequences of population aging for long-run economic growth perspectives. Our framework incorporates endogenous growth models and semi-endogenous growth models as special cases. We show that (1) increases in longevity have a positive impact on per capita output growth, (2) decreases in fertility have a negative impact on per capita output growth, (3) the positive longevity effect dominates the negative fertility effect in case of the endogenous growth framework, and (4) population aging fosters long-run growth in the endogenous growth framework, while its effect depends on the relative change between fertility and mortality in the semi-endogenous growth framework.Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s00148-012-0441-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

  20. Accelerated protein crystal growth by protein thin film template

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pechkova, Eugenia; Nicolini, Claudio

    2001-11-01

    A new method based on Langmuir-Blodgett (LB) technology is presented for the template stimulation of protein crystal growth. The new approach allows the acceleration of the hen egg white lysozyme (HEWL) crystal growth rate in comparison with such a classical vapour diffusion method as hanging drop. Protein thin films were coated on the cover slide of the common crystallization plates. Lysozyme crystal growth was observed on the LB thin films of HEWL.

  1. How population growth affects linkage disequilibrium.

    PubMed

    Rogers, Alan R

    2014-08-01

    The "LD curve" relates the linkage disequilibrium (LD) between pairs of nucleotide sites to the distance that separates them along the chromosome. The shape of this curve reflects natural selection, admixture between populations, and the history of population size. This article derives new results about the last of these effects. When a population expands in size, the LD curve grows steeper, and this effect is especially pronounced following a bottleneck in population size. When a population shrinks, the LD curve rises but remains relatively flat. As LD converges toward a new equilibrium, its time path may not be monotonic. Following an episode of growth, for example, it declines to a low value before rising toward the new equilibrium. These changes happen at different rates for different LD statistics. They are especially slow for estimates of [Formula: see text], which therefore allow inferences about ancient population history. For the human population of Europe, these results suggest a history of population growth.

  2. Metropolitan population growth in Arab countries.

    PubMed

    Vaidyanathan, K E

    1977-01-01

    A study or urban population growth in Arab countries has 3 objectives: 1) examination at the micro level of recent demographic trends in selected metropolitan areas of the Arab world and their relationship to changes in the total and urban populations in the respective countries; 2) estimation of net migration by sex and broad age groups for each metropolitan area; and 3) analysis of the pattern of variation in the metropolitan growth rates and their components, migration and natural increase. The study covers the cities proper or urban agglomerations, which includes the suburbs, whose population exceeded 100,000 in the most recent census. Altogether, the study covers 49 metropolitan areas from 9 Arab countries--Algeria; Morocco; Tunisia; Libya; Egypt; Sudan; Syria; Iraq; and Kuwait. Analysis revealed that metropolitan growth rates do follow geographic patterns. In countries with an oil-based economy, metropolitan growth rates are high; in countries with unexploited resources they are slightly below the 1st group; and countries which have pressure on land have low metropolitan growth rates. Population size of the metropolitan area appears to be an important factor associated with variations in metropolitan growth rates and net migration rates. Natural increase emerges as the predominant factor in metropolitan growth, but the differentials in the growth rates are more clearly associated with variations in net migration rates. As all the possibilities of analysis of relationships of metropolitan growth have not been exhausted, it is proposed to examine additional variables as possible factors associated with the speed of metropolitan growth.

  3. Simulating Population Growth and Regulation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Moore, Paul J.; Holt, Elvis J.

    1973-01-01

    Describes a simple manual simulation exercise used in a college sophomore course in environmental biology. Demonstrates ways in which biotic potential and other physiological and behavioral characteristics of living organisms may interact with environmental factors to produce the kind of population behavior actually observed in the real world. (JR)

  4. Population growth and development planning in Africa.

    PubMed

    1980-12-01

    Some of the consequences of rapid population growth and their implications for the economic development of the Africa region in the 1980s are outlined. The total population of Africa was estimated to be 412 million in 1976, or 10.2% of the total world population of 4044 million. Population density of the region is comparatively low, but the crude density measure of 14 persons per square kilometer in 1977 obscures the very high percentage of Africa's land which is desert or otherwise not arable. Continued high fertility rates in the region coupled with substantial decline in mortality rates especially for infants and children has resulted in Africa having a youthful population. The growth of cities due primarily to rural-urban migration is 1 of the most pressing problems of the region. Some countries in the region maintain pronatalist policies because they have a small population and regard population growth as a stimulus to the socioeconomic development effort. Few countries such as Kenya, Mauritius, Egypt, and Morocco consider rapid population growth a constraint on their development efforts and are now implementing national policies which aim at reducing the rate of growth of their populations. Population problems in Africa arise mainly from the fact that additions to the population needing education, housing, employment and to be fed adequately are increasing at a rate far more than most African countries can cope with. To illustrate the potential impact of population factors on development, the potential relationships between population and health, education, food supply, labor force supply and employment are analyzed.

  5. Comparison of acceleration subjects to other populations: spinal anomaly distribution.

    PubMed

    Popper, S E; Morris, C E; Briggs, J; Fisher, F

    1997-05-01

    Two Armstrong Laboratory (AL) human volunteer subject panels (sustained and impact acceleration) at Wright Patterson AFB, OH, were compared to each other and to other samples of different populations in terms of spinal anomalies. These sample populations were obtained from the scientific literature: French, Norwegian, Netherlands, and U.S. pilots; U.S. Air Force (AF) and Navy subjects, and from representative "normal" civilian populations, and then compared using the proportion parameters for various spinal anomalies. There were only a few common parameters between the two panels and between each panel compared with the foreign military, human subjects, and "normal" population. However, there were two to six times as many similar spinal anomaly incidence rates between the AL panels and the U.S. pilot sample. It was reassuring that the AL subject panels used in AF acceleration research have more in common with AF pilots than other populations in regards to spinal anomalies, even though the pilot sample may not be representative of the true pilot population. Recommendations are to establish a common reference point in nomenclature and description of spinal anomalies (modeled after the French) and to start collecting spinal radiographs on all U.S. pilots. These radiographs would not be for screening but for establishing a database following the occupational pathology of flying. This data would also facilitate comparisons with research acceleration panels, as well as with foreign air forces. Informed decisions can then be made regarding screening criteria for the future as aircraft and ejection seat performance envelopes continue to expand. PMID:9143754

  6. Rapid evolution accelerates plant population spread in fragmented experimental landscapes.

    PubMed

    Williams, Jennifer L; Kendall, Bruce E; Levine, Jonathan M

    2016-07-29

    Predicting the speed of biological invasions and native species migrations requires an understanding of the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of spreading populations. Theory predicts that evolution can accelerate species' spread velocity, but how landscape patchiness--an important control over traits under selection--influences this process is unknown. We manipulated the response to selection in populations of a model plant species spreading through replicated experimental landscapes of varying patchiness. After six generations of change, evolving populations spread 11% farther than nonevolving populations in continuously favorable landscapes and 200% farther in the most fragmented landscapes. The greater effect of evolution on spread in patchier landscapes was consistent with the evolution of dispersal and competitive ability. Accounting for evolutionary change may be critical when predicting the velocity of range expansions. PMID:27471303

  7. Rapid evolution accelerates plant population spread in fragmented experimental landscapes.

    PubMed

    Williams, Jennifer L; Kendall, Bruce E; Levine, Jonathan M

    2016-07-29

    Predicting the speed of biological invasions and native species migrations requires an understanding of the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of spreading populations. Theory predicts that evolution can accelerate species' spread velocity, but how landscape patchiness--an important control over traits under selection--influences this process is unknown. We manipulated the response to selection in populations of a model plant species spreading through replicated experimental landscapes of varying patchiness. After six generations of change, evolving populations spread 11% farther than nonevolving populations in continuously favorable landscapes and 200% farther in the most fragmented landscapes. The greater effect of evolution on spread in patchier landscapes was consistent with the evolution of dispersal and competitive ability. Accounting for evolutionary change may be critical when predicting the velocity of range expansions.

  8. Population growth and development: the Kenyan experience.

    PubMed

    Nyamwange, M

    1995-01-01

    Rapid population growth in Kenya and high fertility impacts negatively on economic development. The growth and high fertility results in declines in gross national product, per capita food consumption, and land quality; a high dependency ratio; urban crowding; and inadequate health systems. East Africa has the highest crude birth rates in Africa, and Kenya has the highest birth rate of 54/1000 population in East Africa. The African crude death rate is 50% higher than the world average, but Kenya's death rate is the lowest in East Africa and comparable to North American and European death rates. Kenya has the highest rate of natural increase of about 4%. Population growth rates rose over the decades. Kenya's average population density is well above the sub-Saharan African average and much lower than very high density countries. Population is unequally distributed. Regional densities are widely divergent, and the highest densities in Western province are well above densities in Rwanda and Burundi. Urban growth has increased, as has migration to urban areas. Nairobi has 57% of urban population. Improved health and nutrition have contributed to increased life expectancy. The desired family size is large. The impact of demographic factors on economic conditions is evident in the decline in gross national product per capita growth to under 1% during 1972-88. A slight upswing occurred during 1988-93, but other crises are emerging. Food production has not kept pace with population growth. Production has been low due to serious land degradation, short fallow periods, and traditional farming practices. Population pressure has forced families to shift agriculture onto marginal lands, and desertification has increased. A growing proportion of the population is unemployed or underemployed. Population programs should address the underlying conditions for fertility decline.

  9. Population priorities: the challenge of continued rapid population growth

    PubMed Central

    Turner, Adair

    2009-01-01

    Rapid population growth continues in the least developed countries. The revisionist case that rapid population could be overcome by technology, that population density was advantageous, that capital shallowing is not a vital concern and that empirical investigations had not proved a correlation between high population growth and low per capita income was both empirically and theoretically flawed. In the modern world, population density does not play the role it did in nineteenth-century Europe and rates of growth in some of today's least developed nations are four times than those in nineteenth-century Europe, and without major accumulation of capital per capita, no major economy has or is likely to make the low- to middle-income transition. Though not sufficient, capital accumulation for growth is absolutely essential to economic growth. While there are good reasons for objecting to the enforced nature of the Chinese one-child policy, we should not underestimate the positive impact which that policy has almost certainly had and will have over the next several decades on Chinese economic performance. And a valid reticence about telling developing countries that they must contain fertility should not lead us to underestimate the severely adverse impact of high fertility rates on the economic performance and prospects of many countries in Africa and the Middle East. PMID:19770149

  10. Education and Technology Accelerate Economic Growth for Newly Emerging Economies.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Workforce Economics Trends, 2001

    2001-01-01

    Technology provides a new and effective tool for accelerating economic growth, and developing countries are embracing technology and education as the means toward attaining economic parity with the United States and other developed nations. Evidence suggests that this strategy is paying off. Developing countries are building a technology…

  11. Nepal's rapid population growth still a concern.

    PubMed

    1994-05-01

    The Nepal representative of the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) noted at the 194 ESCAP Commission meeting in Beijing that rapid population growth was still a problem: 2.1% per year. The annual average income growth rate was only 3.5% and poverty was widespread. The combination of poverty and rapid population growth were contributing to environmental damage. Sustainable solutions were needed for dealing with all three aforementioned issues. A high priority was already attached to population control programs, because population growth was linked to raising the standard of living and solving environmental problems. Women need to be placed in prominent positions in development efforts and given equality with men. Nepal representatives did attend the preparatory meeting on April 22, 1994, to the International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) to be held in Cairo in September. The Preparatory Committee will be developing a report for the Conference. Solutions to population issues were seen as instrumental to achieving poverty alleviation and high economic growth.

  12. Population growth and environmental degradation in Malawi.

    PubMed

    Kalipeni, E

    1992-01-01

    Malawi has been ranked by the World Bank as one of the poorest countries in Africa. Malawi's only resources are its people and fertile soil, which comprises about 55% of land area. Environmental degradation and population growth conditions in Malawi were used to illustrate the model of environmental degradation linked to population pressure on land resources and government development strategies that favored large-scale agricultural farms. The result has been deforestation, overgrazing, overuse of land for subsistence, and increased population density. The argument was that population growth in some developing countries has been so rapid that environmental collapse is the result. The theoretical framework linking population growth, environment, and resources emphasized processes: 1) the precursor stage of underlying causes; 2) the problem phase with potential ecological and economic decline; and 3) consequences (environmental decline, reduction in food production systems, and reduction in standard of living). The precursors were identified as an agrarian society, lack of a population policy, and emphasis on large families. The problems were rapid population growth and immigration from Mozambique, which led to increased demand for trees for fuel and consequent deforestation, increased demand for arable land and consequent landlessness, increased investment in livestock and consequent overgrazing, and continued population momentum which was a financial burden to government and resulted in increased labor competition. The ecological consequences were soil erosion, degradation of vegetation, and water supply contamination and decline. Eventually, famines will occur and lead to disease, migration, deserted villages, urbanization, unemployment, ethnic conflicts, and political unrest. Population was estimated at 8.75 million in 1990, with exponential growth expected. Completed family size was 6.6 children per woman. Even replacement fertility would mean growth for 50 more

  13. Population growth and environmental degradation in Malawi.

    PubMed

    Kalipeni, E

    1992-01-01

    Malawi has been ranked by the World Bank as one of the poorest countries in Africa. Malawi's only resources are its people and fertile soil, which comprises about 55% of land area. Environmental degradation and population growth conditions in Malawi were used to illustrate the model of environmental degradation linked to population pressure on land resources and government development strategies that favored large-scale agricultural farms. The result has been deforestation, overgrazing, overuse of land for subsistence, and increased population density. The argument was that population growth in some developing countries has been so rapid that environmental collapse is the result. The theoretical framework linking population growth, environment, and resources emphasized processes: 1) the precursor stage of underlying causes; 2) the problem phase with potential ecological and economic decline; and 3) consequences (environmental decline, reduction in food production systems, and reduction in standard of living). The precursors were identified as an agrarian society, lack of a population policy, and emphasis on large families. The problems were rapid population growth and immigration from Mozambique, which led to increased demand for trees for fuel and consequent deforestation, increased demand for arable land and consequent landlessness, increased investment in livestock and consequent overgrazing, and continued population momentum which was a financial burden to government and resulted in increased labor competition. The ecological consequences were soil erosion, degradation of vegetation, and water supply contamination and decline. Eventually, famines will occur and lead to disease, migration, deserted villages, urbanization, unemployment, ethnic conflicts, and political unrest. Population was estimated at 8.75 million in 1990, with exponential growth expected. Completed family size was 6.6 children per woman. Even replacement fertility would mean growth for 50 more

  14. Vietnam's campaign to reduce population growth.

    PubMed

    Haub, C

    1999-10-01

    This paper reports campaigns to reduce the population growth in Vietnam. In July, red banners flew above the broad boulevard in Hanoi proclaiming World Population Day. This widespread public attention to population issues is not surprising, given the country's sharp reduction in fertility and widespread citizen support for smaller families. Since 1961, Vietnam has been trying to formulate a policy to reduce the population rate growth. The policy was a reaction to the results of the 1960 Census of the Democratic Republic of Vietnam and reflected long-standing concerns over food shortages, as well as a desire to improve women's health and welfare. After the reunification in 1975, the policy was extended to the entire country. Since then, Vietnam's growth rate has been declining, suggesting that the national campaign for smaller families is succeeding in changing deeply held attitudes and perceptions, in addition to current practices. While the fertility decline in Vietnam may not be the world's fastest, the success of the national population policy has forever altered the country's prospect for population growth.

  15. A one dimensional model of population growth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ribeiro, Fabiano L.; Ribeiro, Kayo N.

    2015-09-01

    In this work, a one dimensional population growth model is proposed. The model, based on the cooperative and competitive individual-individual distance-dependent interaction, allows us to get a full analytical solution. With this analytical approach, it was possible to investigate the dynamics of the population according to some parameters, as intrinsic growth rate, strength of the interaction between individuals, and the distance-dependent interaction. As a consequence of the individuals' interaction, a rich phase diagram to which the population has access was observed. The phases observed are: convergence to carrying capacity, exponential growth, divergence at finite time, and extinction. Moreover, it was also observed that some phases are strictly dependent on the initial condition. For instance, in the cooperative regime with negative intrinsic growth rate, the population can diverge or become extinct according to the initial population size. The phases accessible to the population can be seen as a macroscopic behavior which emerges from the interaction among the individuals (the microscopic level).

  16. Modeling Nonlinear Change via Latent Change and Latent Acceleration Frameworks: Examining Velocity and Acceleration of Growth Trajectories

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Grimm, Kevin; Zhang, Zhiyong; Hamagami, Fumiaki; Mazzocco, Michele

    2013-01-01

    We propose the use of the latent change and latent acceleration frameworks for modeling nonlinear growth in structural equation models. Moving to these frameworks allows for the direct identification of "rates of change" and "acceleration" in latent growth curves--information available indirectly through traditional growth curve models when change…

  17. Epistasis can accelerate adaptive diversification in haploid asexual populations

    PubMed Central

    Griswold, Cortland K.

    2015-01-01

    A fundamental goal of the biological sciences is to determine processes that facilitate the evolution of diversity. These processes can be separated into ecological, physiological, developmental and genetic. An ecological process that facilitates diversification is frequency-dependent selection caused by competition. Models of frequency-dependent adaptive diversification have generally assumed a genetic basis of phenotype that is non-epistatic. Here, we present a model that indicates diversification is accelerated by an epistatic basis of phenotype in combination with a competition model that invokes frequency-dependent selection. Our model makes use of a genealogical model of epistasis and insights into the effects of balancing selection on the genealogical structure of a population to understand how epistasis can facilitate diversification. The finding that epistasis facilitates diversification may be informative with respect to empirical results that indicate an epistatic basis of phenotype in experimental bacterial populations that experienced adaptive diversification. PMID:25631997

  18. Epistasis can accelerate adaptive diversification in haploid asexual populations.

    PubMed

    Griswold, Cortland K

    2015-03-01

    A fundamental goal of the biological sciences is to determine processes that facilitate the evolution of diversity. These processes can be separated into ecological, physiological, developmental and genetic. An ecological process that facilitates diversification is frequency-dependent selection caused by competition. Models of frequency-dependent adaptive diversification have generally assumed a genetic basis of phenotype that is non-epistatic. Here, we present a model that indicates diversification is accelerated by an epistatic basis of phenotype in combination with a competition model that invokes frequency-dependent selection. Our model makes use of a genealogical model of epistasis and insights into the effects of balancing selection on the genealogical structure of a population to understand how epistasis can facilitate diversification. The finding that epistasis facilitates diversification may be informative with respect to empirical results that indicate an epistatic basis of phenotype in experimental bacterial populations that experienced adaptive diversification.

  19. Keynes on population and economic growth.

    PubMed

    Toye, J

    1997-01-01

    This article discusses the evolution of Keynes's thinking on population based on an unpublished paper from 1914, "Is the Problem of Population a Pressing and Important One Now?" The paper is reported to have 39 pages, but in fact there are many missing page numbers. Keynes's "Essays in Biography" (1933) follows the basic structure and much of the verbal detail of the first 16 pages of "Population." Chapter 2 of the "Economic Consequences of the Peace" discusses the key ideas of "Population." The passages in "Population" and Chapter 2 were probably the sources of a fierce controversy in 1923-24 between Keynes and W.H. Beveridge over Keynes' neo-Malthusianism. "Population" was the basis for the three themes that were central to Keynes's writing on population. Keynes's framework shifted from a global perspective in "Population" to a progressively narrower focus in the 1930s on England and Wales. Keynes was stronger in his advocacy of birth control in "Population" compared to later writings. Keynes was concerned about the quality of population but disagreed on the methods of achieving this. Keynes argued that 75% of the world was not subject to Malthusian dynamics, and the other 25% had developed technology to relieve population pressure. "Population" sketches out the rudiments of the welfare implications of the great divide between North and South population growth rates. Keynes assumes that overpopulation in the South will be compensated for by the international market without consideration of income deficits. Keynes argues against pronatalism. The 1933 essay shows Keynes shift away from Malthus as population expert to Malthus as political economist. By 1937, Keynes had recanted and was very aware of the uncertainty of the economy. The author believes that it is unfortunate that this 1913-14 manuscript remains unknown and, if known, misunderstood.

  20. Tsetse: the limits to population growth.

    PubMed

    Hargrove, J W

    1988-07-01

    Growth rates of tsetse populations were estimated by calculating the dominant eigenvalues of appropriate Leslie matrices. The individual effects of four variables (pre-adult and adult survival probability, interlarval period and pupal duration), have been investigated by varying each one over a wide range of values, while the other three are held constant. R, the log of the growth rate, was found to vary approximately linearly with adult and pre-adult death rate; a 1% change in the adult death rate causes approximately a 10-fold change in R. R varies linearly with the log of fecundity and of the pupal duration. An increase in the pupal duration results in a decrease in the growth rate for populations which have a positive growth rate, but an increase for populations which have a negative growth rate. For a population at equilibrium, a change in the pupal duration has no effect. Small changes in fecundity have less effect on the growth rate than small changes in the death rate; this fact is advanced as an important contributor to the generally very cautious nature of female tsetse, and their aversion to man, particularly as a potential host. A simple linear model is described which relates R to all four variables and their first order interactions. The model is used to produce a set of graphs which encapsulate the relationship between the growth rate and the vital parameters over a wide range of values. It is also used to draw the loci on one side of which tsetse populations grow, and on the other of which they decline. Population resilience is discussed in relation to the problem of tsetse eradication; it is concluded that if one can impose and sustain an added mortality of 4% per day on any female tsetse population then it must go extinct, regardless of the strength of the density dependent processes; and it seems likely that in most field conditions only an added 2-3% is required. It is pointed out that ground and aerial spraying techniques produce much higher

  1. Impact of accelerated plant growth on seed variety development

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Christophersen, Eric

    1998-01-01

    The commercial lives of agricultural seed products have steadily declined in recent years. The introduction of genetically engineered crop seeds in 1966 has accentuated that trend. Widespread grower demand for genetically engineered seed requires competitive response by industry followers in order to avert market share losses to the industry leaders. Limitations on plant transformation technology, regulatory requirements and patent impediments require companies to rapidly convert transformed lines into elite commercial products. Massive multigenerational backcrossing efforts are required to distribute genetically engineered traits into a broad product mix. Significant incidents of expression failures, or ``gene silencing,'' have occurred unexpectedly, requiring product substitution strategies. First-to-market strategies, competitive response, broad germplasm conversion and rescue of product failures all share the element of urgency. Technologies which reliably accelerate product development rates can expect favorable reception by commercial seed developers. A growth chamber which dramatically accelerates the rate of plant growth is described.

  2. A Revisionist Look at Population and Growth.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Holden, Constance

    1986-01-01

    Presents highlights from a National Research Council report titled "Population Growth and Economic Questions: Policy Questions." Includes brief comments on the report's conclusions related to exhaustible resources, renewable resources, pollution, work productivity, economics of scale and technological innovation, schooling, income distribution,…

  3. Population growth to put pressure on some food supplies.

    PubMed

    1997-01-01

    Continued high population growth in developing countries is likely to lead to intense pressure to produce more rice, according to estimates from the Manila-based International Rice Research Institute (IRRI). Ms. Mercedita Sombilla, a research scientist with IRRI, said that the projected increase in Asia's population will be the major force in accelerating demand for rice. According to various issues of the ESCAP Population Data Sheet, the population of the region will have increased from 3.3 billion in 1995 to almost 4.6 billion in 2020. The greatest growth in demand is expected to come from the lower-income countries of Asia, such as Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Philippines, and Viet Nam, she said. However, in terms of overall food supplies, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) estimates that food supplies will be sufficient. "Expecting reasonably strong productivity growth to be sustainable, no global food crisis seems likely to occur" between now and 2020, the organization stated in its report entitled "The World in 2020: Towards a New Global Age". PMID:12321308

  4. [Models of economic theory of population growth].

    PubMed

    Von Zameck, W

    1987-01-01

    "The economic theory of population growth applies the opportunity cost approach to the fertility decision. Variations and differentials in fertility are caused by the available resources and relative prices or by the relative production costs of child services. Pure changes in real income raise the demand for children or the total amount spent on children. If relative prices or production costs and real income are affected together the effect on fertility requires separate consideration." (SUMMARY IN ENG)

  5. [World population growth and the food supply].

    PubMed

    Huang, Y

    1982-07-29

    The general trend in the last several hundred years has been that the speed of growth in the food supply exceeds the speed of the population growth. For the time being, 2 major problems still exist. The 1st problem is that food production is still influenced by natural conditions. For example, abnormal weather conditions may cause regional food shortages. The 2nd problem is the imbalance of food consumption by the world population. This phenomenon exists between different social classes as well as between developed and developing countries. According to statistics released by the World Bank, 1 billion suffer from malnutrition today and most of them are in developing countries. In developed countries, about half of their increase in the food supply is for feed grains, and those countries follow the policy of reducing farm land for the purpose of maintaing stabl e grain prices. Up to the present time, grain prices have been unstable, and this has become a rather heavy economic burden for numerous developing countries. Many developing countries are trying to increase grain production by increasing their arable land and promoting their cultivating techniques. However, these countries are facing the problems of finding and adequate water supply, fertilizer, and pesticides. In addition, a rapid population growth in these countries has offset their endeavors in agriculture. In recent years, these counties have realized the necessity of birth control. The world population growth rate has decreased from 2% to about 1.7% in 1981. Birth control and an increase in the food supply will bring new hope to the world's problems of overpopulation and food supply.

  6. Temporal pattern of accelerated lung growth after tracheal occlusion in the fetal rabbit.

    PubMed Central

    De Paepe, M. E.; Johnson, B. D.; Papadakis, K.; Sueishi, K.; Luks, F. I.

    1998-01-01

    Tracheal occlusion in utero is a potent stimulus of fetal lung growth. We describe the early growth mechanics of fetal lungs and type II pneumocytes after tracheal ligation (TL). Fetal rabbits underwent TL at 24 days gestational age (DGA; late pseudoglandular stage; term = 31 to 33 days) and were sacrificed at time intervals ranging from 1 to 5 days after TL. Lung growth was measured by stereological volumetry and bromodeoxyuridine (BrdU) pulse labeling. Pneumocyte II population kinetics were analyzed using a combination of anti-surfactant protein A and BrdU immunohistochemistry and computer-assisted morphometry. Nonoperated littermates served as controls. TL resulted in dramatically enhanced lung growth (lung weight/body weight was 5.00 +/- 0.81% in TL versus 2.52 +/- 0.13% in controls at 29 DGA; P < 0.001, unpaired Student's t-test). Post-TL lung growth was characterized by a 3-day lag-phase typified by relative stagnation of growth, followed by distension of airspaces, increased cell proliferation, and accelerated architectural and cellular maturation by postligation days 4 and 5. During the proliferation phase, the replicative activity of type II cells was markedly increased (type II cell BrdU labeling index was 10.0 +/- 4.1% in TL versus 1.1 +/- 0.3% for controls at 29 DGA; P < 0.02), but their numerical density decreased (3.0 +/- 0.5 x 10(-3)/microm2 in TL versus 4.5 +/- 0.3 x 10(-3)/microm2 in controls at 29 DGA; P < 0.02), suggesting accelerated terminal differentiation to type I cells. In conclusion, post-TL lung development is characterized by a well defined temporal pattern of lung growth and maturation. The rabbit model lends itself well to study the regulatory mechanisms underlying accelerated fetal lung growth after TL. Images Figure 2 Figure 4 Figure 6 Figure 8 Figure 9 PMID:9422535

  7. Renewed population growth in rural America.

    PubMed

    Johnson, K M

    1998-01-01

    This chapter documents the fact that "nonmetropolitan America has experienced widespread population gain and net in-migration since 1990. This contrasts with the trend evident through most of this century.... However, this deconcentration has been selective and tempered by economic period effects. Future nonmetropolitan demographic change is likely to be even more dependent on migration because recent rural fertility patterns, together with age structure shifts, have diminished the contribution natural increase can make to rural growth. This increasing dependence on migration, coupled with the greater integration of nonmetropolitan areas into the national and international system, makes rural America increasingly sensitive to national and global economic, political, and social forces."

  8. Population growth, demographic change, and cultural landscapes.

    PubMed

    Woodgate, G; Sage, C

    1994-01-01

    The inclusion of both ecological and socioeconomic components within landscapes makes possible the perception of the hierarchical character of landscape organization. A research approach is needed to conceptualize cultural landscapes as the product of interaction between society and nature. Richard Norgaard's 1984 paper on coevolutionary agricultural development attempts to meet this challenge. Coevolution is the interactive synthesis of natural and social mechanisms of change that characterize the relationship between social systems and ecosystems. The relationship between population, consumption, and environmental changes is complex. Currently industrialized countries present the biggest threat to global environmental resources. The issue of carrying capacity is the corollary of population and the environment. It is primarily the technological factor rather than population that needs to be controlled. The relationship between rich and poor countries is determined by superior economic power. An analysis of landscape change is made, tracing the coevolution of society and environment from the end of the feudal era and making comparisons with continental Europe. Over the years since 1945 the need to realize potential economies of scale has resulted in a wholesale loss of woodlands, hedgerows, and small ponds in the UK. In a global context the likely impacts of population growth and demographic change on landscapes will be influenced by such socioeconomic factors as technology and affluence; policies that ignore cause and effect; and the traditional tendency to treat the environment as a waste repository and a supply depot. PMID:12290867

  9. Population divergence in compensatory growth responses and their costs in sticklebacks

    PubMed Central

    Ab Ghani, Nurul Izza; Merilä, Juha

    2015-01-01

    Compensatory growth (CG) may be an adaptive mechanism that helps to restore an organisms’ growth trajectory and adult size from deviations caused by early life resource limitation. Yet, few studies have investigated the genetic basis of CG potential and existence of genetically based population differentiation in CG potential. We studied population differentiation, genetic basis, and costs of CG potential in nine-spined sticklebacks (Pungitius pungitius) differing in their normal growth patterns. As selection favors large body size in pond and small body size in marine populations, we expected CG to occur in the pond but not in the marine population. By manipulating feeding conditions (viz. high, low and recovery feeding treatments), we found clear evidence for CG in the pond but not in the marine population, as well as evidence for catch-up growth (i.e., size compensation without growth acceleration) in both populations. In the marine population, overcompensation occurred individuals from the recovery treatment grew eventually larger than those from the high feeding treatment. In both populations, the recovery feeding treatment reduced maturation probability. The recovery feeding treatment also reduced survival probability in the marine but not in the pond population. Analysis of interpopulation hybrids further suggested that both genetic and maternal effects contributed to the population differences in CG. Hence, apart from demonstrating intrinsic costs for recovery growth, both genetic and maternal effects were identified to be important modulators of CG responses. The results provide an evidence for adaptive differentiation in recovery growth potential. PMID:25628860

  10. World Population: Fundamentals of Growth. Student Chartbook. Third Edition.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kent, Mary Mederios

    This booklet is designed for K-12 students and educators to learn about world population growth factors. Data are shown through charts and graphs with brief explanations. The booklet contains: (1) "World Population Growth and Regional Distribution through History"; (2) "Population Growth through Natural Increase"; (3) "Effect of Migration on…

  11. Overcoming challenges to accelerating linear growth in Indian children.

    PubMed

    Sachdev, H P S

    2012-04-01

    This policy review highlights the need to focus on stunting as an indicator of under-five undernutrition and explores the major challenges and priority public health options for accelerating linear growth in children. Early childhood stunting predicts poor human capital including shorter adult height, lower attained schooling, reduced adult income, and decreased offspring birth weight. The current prevalence of stunting is disconcerting but there has been a relatively faster decline recently. It is imperative to intervene before birth to address stunting. Pertinent ongoing interventions (delaying early child birth, adequate antenatal care and maternal iron-folate supplementation) are beneficial but have sub-optimal coverage. There is only a narrow window of opportunity in early life--the first two years. Effective coverage of children below two years of age with a package of interventions (breastfeeding; immunization; appropriate complementary feeding; treatment of infections, especially diarrhea; safe water supply; and sanitation) merits urgent investigation for greater impact.

  12. Inter-state variations in population growth.

    PubMed

    Rao, V K

    1983-01-26

    In formulating India's population policy it is necessary to consider the interstate disparities in birth and death rates as well as rural-urban variations. The states whose total growth over the 1921-81 period exceeded the corresponding all-India rate of 172% were Assam (329), Gujarat (234), Rajasthan (231), Kerala (226), West Bengal (212), Maharashtra (204), Haryana (202), Andhra (196), and Karnataka (177). Madhya Pradesh had the same growth rate as all India. The remaining states had a growth rate less than 172%, i.e., Bihar (148), Jammu and Kashmir (147), Uttar Pradesh (138), Orissa (135), Punjab (133), Tamil Nadu (123), and Himachal Pradesh (120). The states in need of special attention from the point of view of population control policy are Assam, Gujarat, and Rajasthan which have been consistently above the all-India decadal growth rate during all 6 decades of 1921-81; Madhya Pradesh and Haryana, which have been consistently above the all-India rate during the last 3 decades; and Uttar Pradesh, which has suddenly reversed its continuous record of 5 decades of being below the all-India growth rate and now shows a higher growth rate during 1971-81. According to the latest sample registration bulletin of December 1980, the combined crude birthrate for India declined from 36.8/1000 in 1970 to 33.0/1000 in 1979 or by 3.8%. The 1st step to reduce the rate of growth of the population is to bring down the combined crude birthrate which now varies from 40.1/1000 in Uttar Pradesh to 25.6 in Kerala. Even Kerala's birthrate cannot be considered satisfactory by either desirable or comparative demographic standards. In the remaining years of the 20th century the birthrate should be brought down to the target of 17.18/1000. Similarly the difference between the rural and urban crude birthrate, which now ranges between 10.6/1000 to 1.2/1000 and averages 6.6 at the national level should be brought down to the 1.2 level of Kerala. Similarly, the combined crude death rate/1000

  13. Human population growth and the demographic transition

    PubMed Central

    Bongaarts, John

    2009-01-01

    The world and most regions and countries are experiencing unprecedentedly rapid demographic change. The most obvious example of this change is the huge expansion of human numbers: four billion have been added since 1950. Projections for the next half century expect a highly divergent world, with stagnation or potential decline in parts of the developed world and continued rapid growth in the least developed regions. Other demographic processes are also undergoing extraordinary change: women's fertility has dropped rapidly and life expectancy has risen to new highs. Past trends in fertility and mortality have led to very young populations in high fertility countries in the developing world and to increasingly older populations in the developed world. Contemporary societies are now at very different stages of their demographic transitions. This paper summarizes key trends in population size, fertility and mortality, and age structures during these transitions. The focus is on the century from 1950 to 2050, which covers the period of most rapid global demographic transformation. PMID:19770150

  14. Fitness and density-dependent population growth in Drosophila melanogaster

    SciTech Connect

    Mueller, L.D.; Ayala, F.J.

    1981-03-01

    The density-dependent rates of population growth were determined for 26 populations of Drosophila melanogaster maintained in the serial transfer system. Twenty-five populations were homozygous for an entire chromosome 2 sampled from nature; the other was a random heterozygous population. Rates of population growth around the carrying capacity cannot explain the large fitness depression of these lines. However, the homozygous lines show large differences in rates of population growth at low densities relative to the random heterozygous standard. The average relative fitness of the homozygous lines, as determined from the growth rates at the lowest density, is 0.51.

  15. Population growth and land use in Nepal: "the great turnabout".

    PubMed

    Hrabovszky, J P; Miyan, K

    1987-08-01

    Historically, Nepal has demonstrated a "great turnabout" trend, in which initial immigration from the lowland areas to the mountains has been replaced by accelerating migration from the hills to the plains. The reason for this reversal has been a rapid growth in population within the confines of limited availability of potentially cultivable land. Given Nepal's slow economic development, the overwhelming majority of increases in population have to be accommodated within the agricultural sector, on which 83% of Nepal's households are dependent. Fundamental land use issues in Nepal include rapid achievement of the final limit of land suitability for cultivation and the speed at which land can be brought into cultivation. The Government of Nepal has developed the objectives of increased food production to provide a satisfactory diet for the population, increased per capita income, improved regional balance in income and development, conservation of natural resources such as land and forests, and overall development of the economy through income generation, export earnings, and release of agricultural labor to other sectors. 3 perspective studies have identified a number of policies and programs that could bring Nepal closer to these goals. These studies analyzed potential land use development, agricultural production, and food availability by the year 2005. Most essential is the need to intensify land use not only in crop agriculture, but also grasslands and forest use. Land must be allocated to uses that represent the most productive use of that land without being degrading. Technologies are available for land use in each of the main types of uses--crop agriculture, livestock, and forests--that can provide protection against land degradation. Finally, irrigation is a key element in raising agricultural output. Close cooperation between the government and the people is crucial for the success of the task of finding a balance between population growth and its demand

  16. Beijing moves to curb population growth.

    PubMed

    Pao, T K

    Education and incentives are being used to encourage a "one-child for one-family" campaign in Beijing. The goal is to reduce its population growth rate to 5%/1000 by 1985. Parents who have only child will receive a certificate entitling the only child to preferential treatment for nursery or kindergarten and medical care. 1-child families will receive an annual bonus of 60 yuan. Those who have more than 2 children will be taxed a minimum of 10% of salaries. Single, childless people will receive their full salaries as pensions on retirement. All urban families will receive the same housing space no matter what size the family. The same will be true for the size of small plots of land parcelled out for private use in the rural suburban area. Sterilization operations are available for those who wish them. Parents with 1 child who have such operations can have their tubes rejoined free of charge if their child is disabled or dies. The average growth rate for China projected for 1978-1000 is 1.2%.

  17. Population growth rate and its determinants: an overview.

    PubMed Central

    Sibly, Richard M; Hone, Jim

    2002-01-01

    We argue that population growth rate is the key unifying variable linking the various facets of population ecology. The importance of population growth rate lies partly in its central role in forecasting future population trends; indeed if the form of density dependence were constant and known, then the future population dynamics could to some degree be predicted. We argue that population growth rate is also central to our understanding of environmental stress: environmental stressors should be defined as factors which when first applied to a population reduce population growth rate. The joint action of such stressors determines an organism's ecological niche, which should be defined as the set of environmental conditions where population growth rate is greater than zero (where population growth rate = r = log(e)(N(t+1)/N(t))). While environmental stressors have negative effects on population growth rate, the same is true of population density, the case of negative linear effects corresponding to the well-known logistic equation. Following Sinclair, we recognize population regulation as occurring when population growth rate is negatively density dependent. Surprisingly, given its fundamental importance in population ecology, only 25 studies were discovered in the literature in which population growth rate has been plotted against population density. In 12 of these the effects of density were linear; in all but two of the remainder the relationship was concave viewed from above. Alternative approaches to establishing the determinants of population growth rate are reviewed, paying special attention to the demographic and mechanistic approaches. The effects of population density on population growth rate may act through their effects on food availability and associated effects on somatic growth, fecundity and survival, according to a 'numerical response', the evidence for which is briefly reviewed. Alternatively, there may be effects on population growth rate of

  18. Behaviour and physiology shape the growth accelerations associated with predation risk, high temperatures and southern latitudes in Ischnura damselfly larvae.

    PubMed

    Stoks, Robby; Swillen, Ine; De Block, Marjan

    2012-09-01

    1. To better predict effects of climate change and predation risk on prey animals and ecosystems, we need studies documenting not only latitudinal patterns in growth rate but also growth plasticity to temperature and predation risk and the underlying proximate mechanisms: behaviour (food intake) and digestive physiology (growth efficiency). The mechanistic underpinnings of predator-induced growth increases remain especially poorly understood. 2. We reared larvae from replicated northern and southern populations of the damselfly Ischnura elegans in a common garden experiment manipulating temperature and predation risk and quantified growth rate, food intake and growth efficiency. 3. The predator-induced and temperature-induced growth accelerations were the same at both latitudes, despite considerably faster growth rates in the southern populations. While the higher growth rates in the southern populations and the high rearing temperature were driven by both an increased food intake and a higher growth efficiency, the higher growth rates under predation risk were completely driven by a higher growth efficiency, despite a lowered food intake. 4. The emerging pattern that higher growth rates associated with latitude, temperature and predation risk were all (partly or completely) mediated by a higher growth efficiency has two major implications. First, it indicates that energy allocation trade-offs and the associated physiological costs play a major role both in shaping large-scale geographic variation in growth rates and in shaping the extent and direction of growth rate plasticity. Secondly, it suggests that the efficiency of energy transfer in aquatic food chains, where damselfly larvae are important intermediate predators, will be higher in southern populations, at higher temperatures and under predation risk. This may eventually contribute to the lengthening of food chains under these conditions and highlights that the prey identity may determine the influence of

  19. Behaviour and physiology shape the growth accelerations associated with predation risk, high temperatures and southern latitudes in Ischnura damselfly larvae.

    PubMed

    Stoks, Robby; Swillen, Ine; De Block, Marjan

    2012-09-01

    1. To better predict effects of climate change and predation risk on prey animals and ecosystems, we need studies documenting not only latitudinal patterns in growth rate but also growth plasticity to temperature and predation risk and the underlying proximate mechanisms: behaviour (food intake) and digestive physiology (growth efficiency). The mechanistic underpinnings of predator-induced growth increases remain especially poorly understood. 2. We reared larvae from replicated northern and southern populations of the damselfly Ischnura elegans in a common garden experiment manipulating temperature and predation risk and quantified growth rate, food intake and growth efficiency. 3. The predator-induced and temperature-induced growth accelerations were the same at both latitudes, despite considerably faster growth rates in the southern populations. While the higher growth rates in the southern populations and the high rearing temperature were driven by both an increased food intake and a higher growth efficiency, the higher growth rates under predation risk were completely driven by a higher growth efficiency, despite a lowered food intake. 4. The emerging pattern that higher growth rates associated with latitude, temperature and predation risk were all (partly or completely) mediated by a higher growth efficiency has two major implications. First, it indicates that energy allocation trade-offs and the associated physiological costs play a major role both in shaping large-scale geographic variation in growth rates and in shaping the extent and direction of growth rate plasticity. Secondly, it suggests that the efficiency of energy transfer in aquatic food chains, where damselfly larvae are important intermediate predators, will be higher in southern populations, at higher temperatures and under predation risk. This may eventually contribute to the lengthening of food chains under these conditions and highlights that the prey identity may determine the influence of

  20. Fibronectin accelerates the growth and differentiation of ameloblast lineage cells in vitro.

    PubMed

    Tabata, Makoto J; Matsumura, Tatsushi; Fujii, Takafumi; Abe, Makoto; Kurisu, Kojiro

    2003-12-01

    During tooth development, the growth and differentiation of ameloblast lineage (AL) cells are regulated by epithelial-mesenchymal interactions. To examine the dynamic effects of components of the basement membrane, which is the extracellular matrix (ECM) lying between the epithelium and mesenchyme, we prepared AL cells from the epithelial layer sheet of mandibular incisors of postnatal day 7 rats and cultured them on plates coated with type IV collagen, laminin-1, or fibronectin. The growth of AL cells was supported by type IV collagen and fibronectin but not by laminin-1 in comparison with that on type I collagen as a reference. Clustering and differentiation of AL cells were observed on all matrices examined. AL cells showed normal growth and differentiation at low cell density on fibronectin but not on type I collagen. Furthermore, the population of cytokeratin 14-positive cells on fibronectin was lower than that on other ECM components, suggesting that fibronectin may be a modulator to accelerate the differentiation of AL cells. After the cells had been cultured for 9 days on fibronectin, crystal-like structures were observed. These structures overlaid the cell clusters and were positive for von Kossa staining. These findings indicate that each matrix component has a regulative role in the proliferation and differentiation of AL cells and that fibronectin causes the greatest acceleration of AL cell differentiation.

  1. Accelerated Molecular Dynamics studies of He Bubble Growth in Tungsten

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Uberuaga, Blas; Sandoval, Luis; Perez, Danny; Voter, Arthur

    2015-11-01

    Understanding how materials respond to extreme environments is critical for predicting and improving performance. In materials such as tungsten exposed to plasmas for nuclear fusion applications, novel nanoscale fuzzes, comprised of tendrils of tungsten, form as a consequence of the implantation of He into the near surface. However, the detailed mechanisms that link He bubble formation to the ultimate development of fuzz are unclear. Molecular dynamics simulations provide insight into the He implantation process, but are necessarily performed at implantation rates that are orders of magnitudes faster than experiment. Here, using accelerated molecular dynamics methods, we examine the role of He implantation rates on the physical evolution of He bubbles in tungsten. We find that, as the He rate is reduced, new types of events involving the response of the tungsten matrix to the pressure in the bubble become competitive and change the overall evolution of the bubble as well as the subsequent morphology of the tungsten surface. We have also examined how bubble growth differs at various microstructural features. These results highlight the importance of performing simulations at experimentally relevant conditions in order to correctly capture the contributions of the various significant kinetic processes and predict the overall response of the material.

  2. Accelerated Near-Threshold Fatigue Crack Growth Behavior of an Aluminum Powder Metallurgy Alloy

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Piascik, Robert S.; Newman, John A.

    2002-01-01

    Fatigue crack growth (FCG) research conducted in the near threshold regime has identified a room temperature creep crack growth damage mechanism for a fine grain powder metallurgy (PM) aluminum alloy (8009). At very low DK, an abrupt acceleration in room temperature FCG rate occurs at high stress ratio (R = Kmin/Kmax). The near threshold accelerated FCG rates are exacerbated by increased levels of Kmax (Kmax less than 0.4 KIC). Detailed fractographic analysis correlates accelerated FCG with the formation of crack-tip process zone micro-void damage. Experimental results show that the near threshold and Kmax influenced accelerated crack growth is time and temperature dependent.

  3. Population Growth and a Sustainable Environment.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mortimore, Michael; Tiffen, Mary

    1994-01-01

    Provides a history of farming practices in a densely populated area of Kenya where a recent study of the resource management practices showed positive, not negative, influences of increasing population density on both environmental conservation and productivity. (LZ)

  4. Volatility and Growth in Populations of Rural Associations

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wollebaek, Dag

    2010-01-01

    This article uses unique community-level data aggregated from censuses of associations to analyze growth and volatility in rural populations of grassroots associations. A qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) shows that the two main paths to growth were (1) centralization in polycephalous (multicentered) municipalities and (2) population growth…

  5. Population growth and development: the case of Bangladesh.

    PubMed

    Nakibullah, A

    1998-04-01

    In a poor, overly populated country such as Bangladesh, some believe that a high rate of population growth is a cause of poverty which impedes economic development. Population growth would therefore be exogenous to economic development. However, others believe that rapid population growth is a consequence rather than a cause of poverty. Population growth is therefore endogenous to economic development. Findings are presented from an investigation of whether population growth has been exogenous or endogenous with respect to Bangladesh's development process during the past 3 decades. The increase in per capita real gross domestic product (GDP) is used as a measure of development. Data on population, real GDP per capita, and real investment share of GDP are drawn from the Penn World Table prepared by Summers and Heston in 1991. The data are annual and cover the period 1959-90. Analysis of the data indicate that population growth is endogenous to Bangladesh's development process. These findings are reflected both in the Granger causality tests and the decompositions of variances of detrended real GDP per capita and population growth.

  6. National health expenditure projections: modest annual growth until coverage expands and economic growth accelerates.

    PubMed

    Keehan, Sean P; Cuckler, Gigi A; Sisko, Andrea M; Madison, Andrew J; Smith, Sheila D; Lizonitz, Joseph M; Poisal, John A; Wolfe, Christian J

    2012-07-01

    For 2011-13, US health spending is projected to grow at 4.0 percent, on average--slightly above the historically low growth rate of 3.8 percent in 2009. Preliminary data suggest that growth in consumers' use of health services remained slow in 2011, and this pattern is expected to continue this year and next. In 2014, health spending growth is expected to accelerate to 7.4 percent as the major coverage expansions from the Affordable Care Act begin. For 2011 through 2021, national health spending is projected to grow at an average rate of 5.7 percent annually, which would be 0.9 percentage point faster than the expected annual increase in the gross domestic product during this period. By 2021, federal, state, and local government health care spending is projected to be nearly 50 percent of national health expenditures, up from 46 percent in 2011, with federal spending accounting for about two-thirds of the total government share. Rising government spending on health care is expected to be driven by faster growth in Medicare enrollment, expanded Medicaid coverage, and the introduction of premium and cost-sharing subsidies for health insurance exchange plans. PMID:22692089

  7. National health expenditure projections: modest annual growth until coverage expands and economic growth accelerates.

    PubMed

    Keehan, Sean P; Cuckler, Gigi A; Sisko, Andrea M; Madison, Andrew J; Smith, Sheila D; Lizonitz, Joseph M; Poisal, John A; Wolfe, Christian J

    2012-07-01

    For 2011-13, US health spending is projected to grow at 4.0 percent, on average--slightly above the historically low growth rate of 3.8 percent in 2009. Preliminary data suggest that growth in consumers' use of health services remained slow in 2011, and this pattern is expected to continue this year and next. In 2014, health spending growth is expected to accelerate to 7.4 percent as the major coverage expansions from the Affordable Care Act begin. For 2011 through 2021, national health spending is projected to grow at an average rate of 5.7 percent annually, which would be 0.9 percentage point faster than the expected annual increase in the gross domestic product during this period. By 2021, federal, state, and local government health care spending is projected to be nearly 50 percent of national health expenditures, up from 46 percent in 2011, with federal spending accounting for about two-thirds of the total government share. Rising government spending on health care is expected to be driven by faster growth in Medicare enrollment, expanded Medicaid coverage, and the introduction of premium and cost-sharing subsidies for health insurance exchange plans.

  8. Reconstructing the dynamics of ancient human populations from radiocarbon dates: 10 000 years of population growth in Australia.

    PubMed

    Johnson, Christopher N; Brook, Barry W

    2011-12-22

    Measuring trends in the size of prehistoric populations is fundamental to our understanding of the demography of ancient people and their responses to environmental change. Archaeologists commonly use the temporal distribution of radiocarbon dates to reconstruct population trends, but this can give a false picture of population growth because of the loss of evidence from older sites. We demonstrate a method for quantifying this bias, and we use it to test for population growth through the Holocene of Australia. We used model simulations to show how turnover of site occupation across an archaeological landscape, interacting with erasure of evidence at abandoned sites, can create an increase in apparent site occupation towards the present when occupation density is actually constant. By estimating the probabilities of abandonment and erasure from archaeological data, we then used the model to show that this effect does not account for the observed increase in occupation through the Holocene in Australia. This is best explained by population growth, which was low for the first part of the Holocene but accelerated about 5000 years ago. Our results provide new evidence for the dynamism of non-agricultural populations through the Holocene.

  9. Trends in physician supply and population growth.

    PubMed

    Makaroff, Laura A; Green, Larry A; Petterson, Stephen M; Bazemore, Andrew W

    2013-04-01

    The physician workforce has steadily grown faster than the U.S. population over the past 30 years, context that is often absent in conversations anticipating physician scarcity. Policy makers addressing future physician shortages should also direct resources to ensure specialty and geographic distribution that best serves population health .

  10. Noise-driven growth rate gain in clonal cellular populations

    PubMed Central

    Hashimoto, Mikihiro; Nozoe, Takashi; Nakaoka, Hidenori; Okura, Reiko; Akiyoshi, Sayo; Kaneko, Kunihiko; Kussell, Edo; Wakamoto, Yuichi

    2016-01-01

    Cellular populations in both nature and the laboratory are composed of phenotypically heterogeneous individuals that compete with each other resulting in complex population dynamics. Predicting population growth characteristics based on knowledge of heterogeneous single-cell dynamics remains challenging. By observing groups of cells for hundreds of generations at single-cell resolution, we reveal that growth noise causes clonal populations of Escherichia coli to double faster than the mean doubling time of their constituent single cells across a broad set of balanced-growth conditions. We show that the population-level growth rate gain as well as age structures of populations and of cell lineages in competition are predictable. Furthermore, we theoretically reveal that the growth rate gain can be linked with the relative entropy of lineage generation time distributions. Unexpectedly, we find an empirical linear relation between the means and the variances of generation times across conditions, which provides a general constraint on maximal growth rates. Together, these results demonstrate a fundamental benefit of noise for population growth, and identify a growth law that sets a “speed limit” for proliferation. PMID:26951676

  11. The population growth and desertification crisis.

    PubMed

    Milas, S

    1985-01-01

    Desertification is a result of overexploitation of the land through overcultivation, overgrazing, deforestation, and poor irrigation practices. This process is a result of the growing imbalance between population, resources, environment, and development. The principle problem causing desertification is not population increase per se; rather, it is due to mismanagement of the land. However, rapidly increasing population densities in the drylands of Africa, Asia, and Latin America have upset the former balance upon which subsistence agriculture depended, including long fallow periods to allow the land to regain its fertility. Arable land for the world as a whole is projected to decrease from its 1975 level of .31 ha/person to .15 ha/person by the year 2000. Population increases in the remaining croplands are expected to produce further encroachment on rangelands and forests and increased ecologic degradation, in turn producing further population pressure, poverty, land degradation, and desertification. The basic need is for better resource utilization. Halting desertification requires the restoration of the balance between man and land. Development, good resource management, and use of appropriate technologic advances are key factors. There is also a crucial need for each country to relate its population policy to its resource base and development plans. Population increase cannot continue indefinitely without regard for the realities of resources, development, and the environment.

  12. Early rapid growth, early birth: Accelerated fetal growth and spontaneous late preterm birth

    PubMed Central

    Kusanovic, Juan Pedro; Erez, Offer; Espinoza, Jimmy; Gotsch, Francesca; Goncalves, Luis; Hassan, Sonia; Gomez, Ricardo; Nien, Jyh Kae; Frongillo, Edward A.; Romero, Roberto

    2011-01-01

    The past two decades in the United States have seen a 24 % rise in spontaneous late preterm delivery (34 to 36 weeks) of unknown etiology. This study tested the hypothesis that fetal growth was identical prior to spontaneous preterm (n=221, median gestational age at birth 35.6 weeks) and term (n=3706) birth among pregnancies followed longitudinally in Santiago, Chile. The hypothesis was not supported: Preterm-delivered fetuses were significantly larger than their term-delivered peers by mid-second trimester in estimated fetal weight, head, limb and abdominal dimensions, and they followed different growth trajectories. Piecewise regression assessed time-specific differences in growth rates at 4-week intervals from 16 weeks. Estimated fetal weight and abdominal circumference growth rates faltered at 20 weeks among the preterm-delivered, only to match and/or exceed their term-delivered peers at 24–28 weeks. After an abrupt decline at 28 weeks attenuating growth rates in all dimensions, fetuses delivered preterm did so at greater population-specific sex and age-adjusted weight than their peers from uncomplicated pregnancies (p<0.01). Growth rates predicted birth timing: one standard score of estimated fetal weight increased the odds ratio for preterm birth from 2.8 prior to 23 weeks, to 3.6 (95% confidence interval, 1.82–7.11, p<0.05) between 23 and 27 weeks. After 27 weeks, increasing size was protective (OR: 0.56, 95% confidence interval, 0.38–0.82, p=0.003). These data document, for the first time, a distinctive fetal growth pattern across gestation preceding spontaneous late preterm birth, identify the importance of mid-gestation for alterations in fetal growth, and add perspective on human fetal biological variability. PMID:18988282

  13. A Longitudinal Assessment of Early Acceleration of Students in Mathematics on Growth in Mathematics Achievement

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ma, X.

    2005-01-01

    Early acceleration of students in mathematics (in the form of early access to formal abstract algebra) has been a controversial educational issue. The current study examined the rate of growth in mathematics achievement of accelerated gifted, honors, and regular students across the entire secondary years (Grades 7-12), in comparison to their…

  14. The growth and prospects of population sociology in China.

    PubMed

    Li, M

    1989-01-01

    Population sociology is an immature science in China. Several issues are important to consider as population sociology develops. 1) Research subjects need to be specified more rigorously. 2) More indepth discussion needs to take place on a system of research. 3) Population sociology needs to be explained in terms of the relationship to socialism and the contribution to population policies. The future of population sociology within population science is secure because the Party's session in 1978 adopted guidelines to promote the development of science and culture, and because it is necessary to the understanding of population problems in the socialist modernization. Population sociology plays a major role with population economics in policy formation. A large number of scholars have invested effort in the dicipline. One of the basic characteristics of population sociology is the ability to view population and social development dynamically. Research covers population problems related to social problems, and vice versa. It is distinct from other sciences, particularly in research scope. It studies the effects of social elements and population development on one another, which delineates the incompatibility between population growth and social development. China's population sociology did not begin until 1978, even though worldwide the discipline was founded early in the century and grew rapidly during World War II. China's population growth is a hindrance to social and economic development, and more indepth studies are needed to analyze the conflicts between population and modern Chinese society and economy, and to assess how best to slow the population growth. There have been 4 basic views on the study of population sociology. The 1st view is that endorsed by Soviet scholars and emphasizes sociolgical principles which affect population growth. This position is population sociology as a brance of sociology rather than as an independent science. The 2nd view pertains

  15. Population growth, development and the environment.

    PubMed

    Keyfitz, N

    1996-11-01

    When Population Studies was founded in 1946 a main preoccupation of demographers and of the public was the prospective decline of the British population, and the falling off of its quality because on the average a poor family had more children than a better-off one. Over the course of the 50 years interests have shifted to the aging of populations as births decline and mortality improves; immigration, immigrants being welcomed for the decades after the war, and subsequently facing hostile political pressures; environmental degradation and the spread of new diseases. The fall in the birth rate, required both for development and for protection of the environment, is spreading from the original industrialized countries of Europe and America to Asia, somewhat more slowly to Latin America, slowest of all to Africa.

  16. Human population and atmospheric carbon dioxide growth dynamics: Diagnostics for the future

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hüsler, A. D.; Sornette, D.

    2014-10-01

    We analyze the growth rates of human population and of atmospheric carbon dioxide by comparing the relative merits of two benchmark models, the exponential law and the finite-time-singular (FTS) power law. The later results from positive feedbacks, either direct or mediated by other dynamical variables, as shown in our presentation of a simple endogenous macroeconomic dynamical growth model describing the growth dynamics of coupled processes involving human population (labor in economic terms), capital and technology (proxies by CO2 emissions). Human population in the context of our energy intensive economies constitutes arguably the most important underlying driving variable of the content of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Using some of the best databases available, we perform empirical analyses confirming that the human population on Earth has been growing super-exponentially until the mid-1960s, followed by a decelerated sub-exponential growth, with a tendency to plateau at just an exponential growth in the last decade with an average growth rate of 1.0% per year. In contrast, we find that the content of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has continued to accelerate super-exponentially until 1990, with a transition to a progressive deceleration since then, with an average growth rate of approximately 2% per year in the last decade. To go back to CO2 atmosphere contents equal to or smaller than the level of 1990 as has been the broadly advertised goals of international treaties since 1990 requires herculean changes: from a dynamical point of view, the approximately exponential growth must not only turn to negative acceleration but also negative velocity to reverse the trend.

  17. Food Production, Population Growth, and Environmental Quality. Caltech Population Program Occasional Papers, Series 1, Number 7.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Groth, Edward, III

    This paper, one in a series of occasional publications, discusses trends in food production and population growth, emphasizing how environmental quality will be affected. The series is intended to increase understanding of the interrelationships between population growth and socioeconomic and cultural patterns throughout the world, and to…

  18. Using Lemna to Study Geometric Population Growth.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    DeBuhr, Larry E.

    1991-01-01

    An experiment in which students collect and analyze data on the population size of a real organism rather that on a model is presented. The activity allows for the integration of mathematics, graphing techniques, and the use of computers. The lesson is designed to follow the learning cycle format. (KR)

  19. Accelerated Threshold Fatigue Crack Growth Effect-Powder Metallurgy Aluminum Alloy

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Piascik, R. S.; Newman, J. A.

    2002-01-01

    Fatigue crack growth (FCG) research conducted in the near threshold regime has identified a room temperature creep crack growth damage mechanism for a fine grain powder metallurgy (PM) aluminum alloy (8009). At very low (Delta) K, an abrupt acceleration in room temperature FCG rate occurs at high stress ratio (R = K(sub min)/K(sub max)). The near threshold accelerated FCG rates are exacerbated by increased levels of K(sub max) (K(sub max) = 0.4 K(sub IC)). Detailed fractographic analysis correlates accelerated FCG with the formation of crack-tip process zone micro-void damage. Experimental results show that the near threshold and K(sub max) influenced accelerated crack growth is time and temperature dependent.

  20. [Age structure and growth characteristic of Castanopsis fargesii population].

    PubMed

    Song, Kun; Da, Liang-jun; Yang, Tong-hui; Yang, Xu-feng

    2007-02-01

    In this paper, the age structure and growth characteristics of Castanopsis fargesii population in a shade-tolerant broadleaved evergreen forest were studied, aimed to understand more about the regeneration patterns and dynamics of this population. The results showed that the age structure of C. fargesii population was of sporadic type, with two death peaks of a 30-year gap. This population had a good plasticity in growth to light condition. Because there were no significant differences in light condition under the canopy in vertical, the saplings came into their first suppression period when they were 5-8 years old, with a height growth rate less than 0. 1 m x a(-1) lasting for 10 years. The beginning time of the first growth suppression period was by the end of the first death peak of the population, and the ending time of the first growth suppression period was at the beginning of the second death peak of the population, demonstrating that growth characteristic was the key factor affecting the age structure of C. fargesii.

  1. Agriculture, population growth, and statistical analysis of the radiocarbon record

    PubMed Central

    Zahid, H. Jabran; Robinson, Erick; Kelly, Robert L.

    2016-01-01

    The human population has grown significantly since the onset of the Holocene about 12,000 y ago. Despite decades of research, the factors determining prehistoric population growth remain uncertain. Here, we examine measurements of the rate of growth of the prehistoric human population based on statistical analysis of the radiocarbon record. We find that, during most of the Holocene, human populations worldwide grew at a long-term annual rate of 0.04%. Statistical analysis of the radiocarbon record shows that transitioning farming societies experienced the same rate of growth as contemporaneous foraging societies. The same rate of growth measured for populations dwelling in a range of environments and practicing a variety of subsistence strategies suggests that the global climate and/or endogenous biological factors, not adaptability to local environment or subsistence practices, regulated the long-term growth of the human population during most of the Holocene. Our results demonstrate that statistical analyses of large ensembles of radiocarbon dates are robust and valuable for quantitatively investigating the demography of prehistoric human populations worldwide. PMID:26699457

  2. Agriculture, population growth, and statistical analysis of the radiocarbon record.

    PubMed

    Zahid, H Jabran; Robinson, Erick; Kelly, Robert L

    2016-01-26

    The human population has grown significantly since the onset of the Holocene about 12,000 y ago. Despite decades of research, the factors determining prehistoric population growth remain uncertain. Here, we examine measurements of the rate of growth of the prehistoric human population based on statistical analysis of the radiocarbon record. We find that, during most of the Holocene, human populations worldwide grew at a long-term annual rate of 0.04%. Statistical analysis of the radiocarbon record shows that transitioning farming societies experienced the same rate of growth as contemporaneous foraging societies. The same rate of growth measured for populations dwelling in a range of environments and practicing a variety of subsistence strategies suggests that the global climate and/or endogenous biological factors, not adaptability to local environment or subsistence practices, regulated the long-term growth of the human population during most of the Holocene. Our results demonstrate that statistical analyses of large ensembles of radiocarbon dates are robust and valuable for quantitatively investigating the demography of prehistoric human populations worldwide.

  3. Agriculture, population growth, and statistical analysis of the radiocarbon record.

    PubMed

    Zahid, H Jabran; Robinson, Erick; Kelly, Robert L

    2016-01-26

    The human population has grown significantly since the onset of the Holocene about 12,000 y ago. Despite decades of research, the factors determining prehistoric population growth remain uncertain. Here, we examine measurements of the rate of growth of the prehistoric human population based on statistical analysis of the radiocarbon record. We find that, during most of the Holocene, human populations worldwide grew at a long-term annual rate of 0.04%. Statistical analysis of the radiocarbon record shows that transitioning farming societies experienced the same rate of growth as contemporaneous foraging societies. The same rate of growth measured for populations dwelling in a range of environments and practicing a variety of subsistence strategies suggests that the global climate and/or endogenous biological factors, not adaptability to local environment or subsistence practices, regulated the long-term growth of the human population during most of the Holocene. Our results demonstrate that statistical analyses of large ensembles of radiocarbon dates are robust and valuable for quantitatively investigating the demography of prehistoric human populations worldwide. PMID:26699457

  4. Parameter Estimates in Differential Equation Models for Population Growth

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Winkel, Brian J.

    2011-01-01

    We estimate the parameters present in several differential equation models of population growth, specifically logistic growth models and two-species competition models. We discuss student-evolved strategies and offer "Mathematica" code for a gradient search approach. We use historical (1930s) data from microbial studies of the Russian biologist,…

  5. Population Growth and Global Security: Toward an American Strategic Commitment.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mumford, Steven

    1981-01-01

    Addresses the world population problem by highlighting three crucial areas: the relationship between population growth control and national security issues, the role of American leadership in resolving the problem, and the barriers to effective action. One barrier discussed in detail is the Roman Catholic Church's stand on abortion and…

  6. A Role for M-Matrices in Modelling Population Growth

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    James, Glyn; Rumchev, Ventsi

    2006-01-01

    Adopting a discrete-time cohort-type model to represent the dynamics of a population, the problem of achieving a desired total size of the population under a balanced growth (contraction) and the problem of maintaining the desired size, once achieved, are studied. Properties of positive-time systems and M-matrices are used to develop the results,…

  7. Rayleigh-Taylor instability growth control by an oscillating acceleration in heavy ion inertial fusion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kawata, S.; Kodera, T.; Hisatomi, Y.; Ogoyski, A. I.; Koseki, S.; Barada, D.

    2010-08-01

    Uniformity of heavy ion beam (HIB) illumination is one of key issues in HIB inertial confinement fusion (HIF) in order to compress a fuel sufficiently and release fusion energy effectively. In this paper a new mitigation method of the Rayleigh-Taylor (R-T) instability growth is presented to make a HIF target robust against a non-uniform implosion. In this study a new mitigation method of the R-T instability growth is proposed based on an oscillating perturbed acceleration, which can be realized by a rotation or oscillation of the HIB illumination axis onto a fuel pellet. The R-T instability analyses and fluid simulations demonstrate that the oscillating acceleration reduces the R-T instability growth significantly. In this paper a baseline steady acceleration g0 is perturbed by a perturbed oscillating acceleration δg, which is spatially non-uniform and oscillates in time (g0 >> δg). An example result shows an 84% reduction of the R-T instability growth. In the analytical work two stratified inviscid fluids are treated under the perturbed oscillating acceleration. The linear analysis shows that the R-T instability growth rate does not change from the standard expression of γ. However, the R-T instability growth is strongly affected and mitigated by the oscillating acceleration; The transverse velocity of w is derived at the interface of the two stratified fluids. The R-T instability is induced by δg. The result presents that the perturbed oscillating acceleration reduces the R-T instability growth significantly depending on the magnitude of the HIB oscillation frequency.

  8. Assessing Undergraduate Learning Outcomes between Accelerated Degree and Traditional Student Populations

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rawls, Janita; Hammons, Stacy

    2012-01-01

    This study investigated learning outcomes in both traditional and accelerated degree populations. Using the National Survey of Student Engagement, outcomes were examined relating to critical thinking, oral and written communication, and cultural and global understanding. Literature from life stage development and degree delivery mode areas were…

  9. Metropolitan migration and population growth in selected developing countries.

    PubMed

    1983-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to estimate the components of metropolitan population growth in selected developing countries during 1960-1970 period. The study examines population growth in 26 cities: 5 are in Africa, 8 in Asia, and 13 in Latin America, using data from national census publications. These cities in general are the political capitals of their countries, but some additional large cities were selected in Brazil, Mexico, and South Africa. All cities, at the beginning of the 1960-1970 decade had over 500,000 population; Accra, the only exception, reached this population level during the 1960s. Some cities had over 4 million residents in 1970. Net migration contributed about 37% to total metropolitan population growth; the remainder of the growth is attributable to natural increase. Migration has a much stronger impact on metropolitan growth than suggested by the above figure: 1) Several metropolitan areas, for various reasons, are unlikely to receive many migrants; without those cities, the share of metropolitan growth from net migration is 44%. 2) Estimates of the natural increase of migrants after their arrival in the metropolitan areas, when added to migration itself, changes the total contribution of migration to 49% in some metropolitan areas. 3) Even where net migration contributes a smaller proportion to metropolitan growth than natural increase, the rates of net migration are generally high and should be viewed in the context of rapid metropolitan population growth from natural increase alone. Finally, the paper also compares the components of metropolitan growth with the components of growth in the remaining urban areas. The results show that the metropolitan areas, in general, grow faster than the remaining urban areas, and that this more rapid growth is mostly due to a higher rate of net migration. Given the significance of migration for metropolitan growth, further investigations of the effects of these migration streams, particularly with

  10. A Stochastic Super-Exponential Growth Model for Population Dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Avila, P.; Rekker, A.

    2010-11-01

    A super-exponential growth model with environmental noise has been studied analytically. Super-exponential growth rate is a property of dynamical systems exhibiting endogenous nonlinear positive feedback, i.e., of self-reinforcing systems. Environmental noise acts on the growth rate multiplicatively and is assumed to be Gaussian white noise in the Stratonovich interpretation. An analysis of the stochastic super-exponential growth model with derivations of exact analytical formulae for the conditional probability density and the mean value of the population abundance are presented. Interpretations and various applications of the results are discussed.

  11. Accelerated fatigue crack growth behavior of PWA 1480

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Telesman, Jack; Ghosn, Louis J.

    1988-01-01

    An investigation of the fatigue crack growth (FCG) behavior of PWA 1480 single crystal nickel base superalloy was conducted. Typical Paris region behavior was observed above a delta K of 8 MPa sq rt of m. However, below that stress intensity range, the alloy exhibited highly unusual behavior. This behavior consisted of a region where the crack growth rate became essentially independent of the applied stress intensity. The transition in the FCG behavior was related to a change in the observed crack growth mechanisms. In the Paris region, fatigue failure occurred along (111) facets; however, at the lower stress intensities, (001) fatigue failure was observed. A mechanism was proposed, based on barriers to dislocation motion, to explain the changes in the observed FCG behavior. The FCG data were also evaluated in terms of a recently proposed stress intensity parameter, K sub rss. This parameter, based on the resolved shear stresses on the slip planes, quantified the crack driving force as well as the mode I delta K, and at the same time was also able to predict the microscopic crack path under different stress states.

  12. Arabidopsis thaliana root growth kinetics and lunisolar tidal acceleration.

    PubMed

    Fisahn, Joachim; Yazdanbakhsh, Nima; Klingele, Emile; Barlow, Peter

    2012-07-01

    • All living organisms on Earth are continually exposed to diurnal variations in the gravitational tidal force due to the Sun and Moon. • Elongation of primary roots of Arabidopsis thaliana seedlings maintained at a constant temperature was monitored for periods of up to 14 d using high temporal- and spatial-resolution video imaging. The time-course of the half-hourly elongation rates exhibited an oscillation which was maintained when the roots were placed in the free-running condition of continuous illumination. • Correlation between the root growth kinetics collected from seedlings initially raised under several light protocols but whose roots were subsequently in the free-running condition and the lunisolar tidal profiles enabled us to identify that the latter is the probable exogenous determinant of the rhythmic variation in root elongation rate. Similar observations and correlations using roots of Arabidopsis starch mutants suggest a central function of starch metabolism in the response to the lunisolar tide. The periodicity of the lunisolar tidal signal and the concomitant adjustments in root growth rate indicate that an exogenous timer exists for the modulation of root growth and development. • We propose that, in addition to the sensitivity to Earthly 1G gravity, which is inherent to all animals and plants, there is another type of responsiveness which is attuned to the natural diurnal variations of the lunisolar tidal force. PMID:22583121

  13. Arabidopsis thaliana root growth kinetics and lunisolar tidal acceleration.

    PubMed

    Fisahn, Joachim; Yazdanbakhsh, Nima; Klingele, Emile; Barlow, Peter

    2012-07-01

    • All living organisms on Earth are continually exposed to diurnal variations in the gravitational tidal force due to the Sun and Moon. • Elongation of primary roots of Arabidopsis thaliana seedlings maintained at a constant temperature was monitored for periods of up to 14 d using high temporal- and spatial-resolution video imaging. The time-course of the half-hourly elongation rates exhibited an oscillation which was maintained when the roots were placed in the free-running condition of continuous illumination. • Correlation between the root growth kinetics collected from seedlings initially raised under several light protocols but whose roots were subsequently in the free-running condition and the lunisolar tidal profiles enabled us to identify that the latter is the probable exogenous determinant of the rhythmic variation in root elongation rate. Similar observations and correlations using roots of Arabidopsis starch mutants suggest a central function of starch metabolism in the response to the lunisolar tide. The periodicity of the lunisolar tidal signal and the concomitant adjustments in root growth rate indicate that an exogenous timer exists for the modulation of root growth and development. • We propose that, in addition to the sensitivity to Earthly 1G gravity, which is inherent to all animals and plants, there is another type of responsiveness which is attuned to the natural diurnal variations of the lunisolar tidal force.

  14. [Rapid population growth is unfavorable to prosperity of minority areas].

    PubMed

    Zhang, T

    1991-04-01

    According to China's 1990 census, the ethnic minority population increased by 35.5% from the 1982 census, 23 percentage points higher than the Han nationality. Among 55 ethnic minorities, 16 had growth rates of over 50% between 1982 and 1990. The Korean ethnic minority had the lowest growth rate, which was only 8.73%. The high growth rate of the ethnic minority population was due to the high level of natural increase and policy factors. With the changing policies toward ethnic minorities, preferential treatment has been give to the them in education, employment, career promotion, and childbearing quota. These policies stimulated switching from the Han nationality to the minority status. 50-60% of growth in the minority population between the 2 censuses has been attributed to the status switching. The per capita GNP in the minority administrative areas was 54.9% lower than in Han areas in 1980. It became 69% lower in 1988. Excessive growth of the ethnic minority population hindered education attainment and economic and resources development. Some ethnic minorities have an illiteracy rate of over 90% and an infant mortality rate of 171/1000. The ecological environment in certain minority areas is deteriorating due to extensive tree-felling and primitive farming methods. In contrast, the Korean minority developed its education program earlier on. Its total fertility rate has been around 1.4 since 1974 and it is gradually changing into a stationary population. Currently, no Korean National counties or townships are below the poverty line. The prevalence of disability is 3.5% in the Korean population, the lowest of all the ethnic groups. It is important to focus population programs among the ethnic minorities to increase their health and educational status. Promoting family planning programs, strictly enforcing the criteria for switching to minority status or setting deadlines to preference treatment eligibility for those who switched status could be possible policies

  15. Nigerian population growth and its implications for economic development.

    PubMed

    Okpala, A O

    1990-12-01

    The population of Nigeria is growing at a rate of 3.75%/year indicating a doubling of the population every 22 years. Demographers estimated the population to be 91,178,000 in 1985. Even though population density is high (288 people/square mile), it is not equally distributed. It is highest in the south and southwest urban areas such as Lagos (1045 people/square mile) and lowest in the northeast (75 people/square mile). Moreover rural-urban migration is growing. A major reason for rural-urban migration is the dual nature of the economy in Nigeria. In urban areas, economic development brings about higher standards of living, but, in rural areas, a subsistence economy predominates. This coupled with rapid population growth results in small or no growth in per capita income. Only if the government were to integrate redistribution policies into complete economic development plans should it consider redistributing the population. It should stress rural development (e.g., incentives for firms to set up in rural areas). Further it should move some government offices to rural areas. The government also needs to adopt population policies encouraging the lowering of fertility levels. If it were to provide education through the secondary and prevocational education level free of charge, educated women will lower their fertility. Sex education should be included in the curriculum. Further the government must play an active role in family planning programs, especially educating rural women about family planning. It should also use the mass media to promote small family size, but it should not dictate family size. It also needs to recognize that population growth puts much pressure on the environment. For example, population growth causes soil erosion, nutrient exhaustion, rapid deforestation, and other problems which render the land unusable for agriculture.

  16. Understanding the size growth of massive galaxies through stellar populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ferreras, Ignacio

    2015-08-01

    The growth of massive galaxies remains an open problem. The observational evidence seems to converge on a two-stage scenario, where a compact massive core is formed during an early, intense burst, followed by a more extended process of mass and size growth at intermediate redshift (z<2). This talk focuses on the latter, exploring the growth of massive galaxies through a detailed analysis of the stellar populations in close pairs, to study their formation history. Two surveys are explored (SHARDS and GAMA), probing the stellar populations of pre-merging systems out to z~1.3, and down to a mass ratio ~1:100. We will compare the results between medium band spectral fitting (SHARDS) and those from a more targeted analysis of line strengths in the GAMA data. The combination of the two datasets provide a unique insight of the growth channel of massive galaxies via mergers.

  17. Modeling bacterial population growth from stochastic single-cell dynamics.

    PubMed

    Alonso, Antonio A; Molina, Ignacio; Theodoropoulos, Constantinos

    2014-09-01

    A few bacterial cells may be sufficient to produce a food-borne illness outbreak, provided that they are capable of adapting and proliferating on a food matrix. This is why any quantitative health risk assessment policy must incorporate methods to accurately predict the growth of bacterial populations from a small number of pathogens. In this aim, mathematical models have become a powerful tool. Unfortunately, at low cell concentrations, standard deterministic models fail to predict the fate of the population, essentially because the heterogeneity between individuals becomes relevant. In this work, a stochastic differential equation (SDE) model is proposed to describe variability within single-cell growth and division and to simulate population growth from a given initial number of individuals. We provide evidence of the model ability to explain the observed distributions of times to division, including the lag time produced by the adaptation to the environment, by comparing model predictions with experiments from the literature for Escherichia coli, Listeria innocua, and Salmonella enterica. The model is shown to accurately predict experimental growth population dynamics for both small and large microbial populations. The use of stochastic models for the estimation of parameters to successfully fit experimental data is a particularly challenging problem. For instance, if Monte Carlo methods are employed to model the required distributions of times to division, the parameter estimation problem can become numerically intractable. We overcame this limitation by converting the stochastic description to a partial differential equation (backward Kolmogorov) instead, which relates to the distribution of division times. Contrary to previous stochastic formulations based on random parameters, the present model is capable of explaining the variability observed in populations that result from the growth of a small number of initial cells as well as the lack of it compared to

  18. Population growth, human development, and deforestation in biodiversity hotspots.

    PubMed

    Jha, S; Bawa, K S

    2006-06-01

    Human population and development activities affect the rate of deforestation in biodiversity hotspots. We quantified the effect of human population growth and development on rates of deforestation and analyzed the relationship between these causal factors in the 1980s and 1990s. We compared the averages of population growth, human development index (HDI, which measures income, health, and education), and deforestation rate and computed correlations among these variables for countries that contain biodiversity hotspots. When population growth was high and HDI was low there was a high rate of deforestation, but when HDI was high, rate of deforestation was low, despite high population growth. The correlation among variables was significant for the 1990s but not for the 1980s. The relationship between population growth and HDI had a regional pattern that reflected the historical process of development. Based on the changes in HDI and deforestation rate over time, we identified two drivers of deforestation: policy choice and human-development constraints. Policy choices that disregard conservation may cause the loss of forests even in countries that are relatively developed. Lack of development in other countries, on the other hand, may increase the pressure on forests to meet the basic needs of the human population. Deforestation resulting from policy choices may be easier to fix than deforestation arising from human development constraints. To prevent deforestation in the countries that have such constraints, transfer of material and intellectual resources from developed countries may be needed. Popular interest in sustainable development in developed countries can facilitate the transfer of these resources.

  19. A model of northern pintail productivity and population growth rate

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Flint, P.L.; Grand, J.B.; Rockwell, R.F.

    1998-01-01

    Our objective was to synthesize individual components of reproductive ecology into a single estimate of productivity and to assess the relative effects of survival and productivity on population dynamics. We used information on nesting ecology, renesting potential, and duckling survival of northern pintails (Anas acuta) collected on the Yukon-Kuskokvim Delta (Y-K Delta), Alaska, 1991-95, to model the number of ducklings produced under a range of nest success and duckling survival probabilities. Using average values of 25% nest success, 11% duckling survival, and 56% renesting probability from our study population, we calculated that all young in our population were produced by 13% of the breeding females, and that early-nesting females produced more young than later-nesting females. Further, we calculated, on average, that each female produced only 0.16 young females/nesting season. We combined these results with estimates of first-year and adult survival to examine the growth rate (??) of the population and the relative contributions of these demographic parameters to that growth rate. Contrary to aerial survey data, the population projection model suggests our study population is declining rapidly (?? = 0.6969). The relative effects on population growth rate were 0.1175 for reproductive success, 0.1175 for first-year survival, and 0.8825 for adult survival. Adult survival had the greatest influence on ?? for our population, and this conclusion was robust over a range of survival and productivity estimates. Given published estimates of annual survival for adult females (61%), our model suggested nest success and duckling survival need to increase to approximately 40% to achieve population stability. We discuss reasons for the apparent discrepancy in population trends between our model and aerial surveys in terms of bias in productivity and survival estimates.

  20. Population Growth Patterns of Four Species of Aphelenchoides on Fungi

    PubMed Central

    Perper, Timothy; Petriello, Richard

    1977-01-01

    Qualitative and quantitative differences in population growth patterns of Aphelenchoides rutgersi from Florida, A. sacchari from Jamaica, A. dactylocercus from Great Britain, and A. cibolensis from New Mexico were assessed on 28 species of fungi. The patterns of population growth of A. rutgersi and A. sacchari were statistically similar although not identical, and they differed considerably from those of A. dactylocercus and A. cibolensis. It is suggested that A. rutgersi and A. sacchari, from Florida and Jamaica respectively, may be more closely related to each other than to either A. dactylocercus or A. cibolensis. PMID:19305612

  1. Population growth and the benefits from optimally priced externalities.

    PubMed

    Clarke, H R; Ng Y-k

    1995-06-01

    "In this article we show that, considering only economic effects, even if population growth, by natural increase or immigration, increases congestion, pollution, and other forms of external costs, that provided pre-existing citizens own the resources giving rise to the externalities, and provided they efficiently price usage of such, that existing citizens must, in net average terms, be better off with population growth than without it. In simple terms the increased revenues they gain from efficient pricing at increased demand levels will be strictly greater than the monetary value of the increased external costs together with the higher tax costs they incur as consumers of the resources." PMID:12347617

  2. Latino Population Growth and Hospital Uncompensated Care in California

    PubMed Central

    O’Brien, Matthew J.; Mennis, Jeremy; Alos, Victor A.; Grande, David T.; Roby, Dylan H.; Ortega, Alexander N.

    2015-01-01

    Objectives. We examined the association between the size and growth of Latino populations and hospitals’ uncompensated care in California. Methods. Our sample consisted of general acute care hospitals in California operating during 2000 and 2010 (n = 251). We merged California hospital data with US Census data for each hospital service area. We used spatial analysis, multivariate regression, and fixed-effect models. Results. We found a significant association between the growth of California’s Latino population and hospitals’ uncompensated care in the unadjusted regression. This association was still significant after we controlled for hospital and community population characteristics. After we added market characteristics into the final model, this relationship became nonsignificant. Conclusions. Our findings suggest that systematic support is needed in areas with rapid Latino population growth to control hospitals’ uncompensated care, especially if Latinos are excluded from or do not respond to the insurance options made available through the Affordable Care Act. Improving availability of resources for hospitals and providers in areas with high Latino population growth could help alleviate financial pressures. PMID:26066960

  3. Global analysis of population growth and river water quality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wen, Yingrong; Schoups, Gerrit; van de Giesen, Nick

    2014-05-01

    Human-related pressures on river water quality are a concern of global proportions.. However, little is known about the more specific impact of increasing population on river water quality and how it provides a vital environmental reference for water management. Combining global gridded data on population and river discharge with digitized river networks, we conduct numerical simulations to demonstrate the direct impact of population growth on river water quality. Our model traces the transport, dilution, and degradation of anthropogenic organic matter (BOD) emissions into rivers. Spanning the period from the early 20th century to the present, our analysis indicates that the pressure on downstream river networks markedly increased since the population explosion starting in 1950, especially in developing countries. The ratio of population to river discharge reveals the link between impact severity and dilution capacity. In addition, a denser population is found to be correlated with higher impact severity. Consideration of direct population influences on global river water quality becomes limited as society develops and should be studied as a fundamental reference for human-related river water management. Keywords: Population growth, River water quality, Space-time analysis, Human activities, Water Management

  4. The Population Growth Consequences of Variation in Individual Heterozygosity

    PubMed Central

    Di Fonzo, Martina M. I.; Pelletier, Fanie; Clutton-Brock, T.H.; Pemberton, Josephine M.; Coulson, Tim

    2011-01-01

    Heterozygosity has been associated with components of fitness in numerous studies across a wide range of taxa. Because heterozygosity is associated with individual performance it is also expected to be associated with population dynamics. However, investigations into the association between heterozygosity and population dynamics have been rare because of difficulties in linking evolutionary and ecological processes. The choice of heterozygosity measure is a further issue confounding such studies as it can be biased by individual differences in the frequencies of the alleles studied, the number of alleles at each locus as well as the total number of loci typed. In this study, we first examine the differences between the principal metrics used to calculate heterozygosity using long-term data from a marked population of Soay sheep (Ovis aries). Next, by means of statistical transformation of the homozygosity weighted by loci index, we determine how heterozygosity contributes to population growth in Soay sheep by modelling individual contributions to population growth (pt(i)) as a function of several covariates, including sex, weight and faecal egg count – a surrogate of parasitic nematode burden in the gut. We demonstrate that although heterozygosity is associated with some components of fitness, most notably adult male reproductive success, in general it is only weakly associated with population growth. PMID:21611172

  5. Meteorological limits on the growth and development of screwworm populations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Phinney, D. E.; Arp, G. K.

    1978-01-01

    A program to evaluate the use of remotely sensed data as an additional tool in existing and projected efforts to eradicate the screwworm began in 1973. Estimating weather conditions by use of remotely sensed data was part of the study. Next, the effect of weather on screwworm populations was modeled. A significant portion of the variation in screwworm population growth and development has been traced to weather-related parameters. This report deals with the salient points of the weather and the screwworm population interaction.

  6. Effects of body size and temperature on population growth.

    PubMed

    Savage, Van M; Gilloly, James F; Brown, James H; Charnov, Eric L

    2004-03-01

    For at least 200 years, since the time of Malthus, population growth has been recognized as providing a critical link between the performance of individual organisms and the ecology and evolution of species. We present a theory that shows how the intrinsic rate of exponential population growth, rmax, and the carrying capacity, K, depend on individual metabolic rate and resource supply rate. To do this, we construct equations for the metabolic rates of entire populations by summing over individuals, and then we combine these population-level equations with Malthusian growth. Thus, the theory makes explicit the relationship between rates of resource supply in the environment and rates of production of new biomass and individuals. These individual-level and population-level processes are inextricably linked because metabolism sets both the demand for environmental resources and the resource allocation to survival, growth, and reproduction. We use the theory to make explicit how and why rmax exhibits its characteristic dependence on body size and temperature. Data for aerobic eukaryotes, including algae, protists, insects, zooplankton, fishes, and mammals, support these predicted scalings for rmax. The metabolic flux of energy and materials also dictates that the carrying capacity or equilibrium density of populations should decrease with increasing body size and increasing temperature. Finally, we argue that body mass and body temperature, through their effects on metabolic rate, can explain most of the variation in fecundity and mortality rates. Data for marine fishes in the field support these predictions for instantaneous rates of mortality. This theory links the rates of metabolism and resource use of individuals to life-history attributes and population dynamics for a broad assortment of organisms, from unicellular organisms to mammals.

  7. Proximate causes of adaptive growth rates: growth efficiency variation among latitudinal populations of Rana temporaria.

    PubMed

    Lindgren, B; Laurila, A

    2005-07-01

    In ectothermic organisms, declining season length and lower temperature towards higher latitudes often select for latitudinal variation in growth and development. However, the energetic mechanisms underlying this adaptive variation are largely unknown. We investigated growth, food intake and growth efficiency of Rana temporaria tadpoles from eight populations along a 1500 km latitudinal gradient across Sweden. To gain an insight into the mechanisms of adaptation at organ level, we also examined variation in tadpole gut length. The tadpoles were raised at two temperatures (16 and 20 degrees C) in a laboratory common garden experiment. We found increased growth rate towards higher latitudes, regardless of temperature treatment. This increase in growth was not because of a higher food intake rate, but populations from higher latitudes had higher growth efficiency, i.e. they were more efficient at converting ingested food into body mass. Low temperature reduced growth efficiency most strongly in southern populations. Relative gut length increased with latitude, and tadpoles at low temperature tended to have longer guts. However, variation in gut length was not the sole adaptive explanation for increased growth efficiency as latitude and body length still explained significant amounts of variation in growth efficiency. Hence, additional energetic adaptations are probably involved in growth efficiency variation along the latitudinal gradient.

  8. [Agricultural backwardness being the fundamental cause of rapid population growth].

    PubMed

    Lin, G

    1981-01-01

    We have been an agricultural country for more than 2000 years. The low level of mechanization and dependence of manpower in our agriculture required a large quantity of labor. Therefore, development of Chinese feudal society was closely related to the population growth. After the establishment of a new socialistic China, the rapid development of agricultural production resulted in our 1st population boom (1952 to 1957). Later the rapid development of heavy industry demanded the transfer of a large amount of labor from agriculture. The shortage of labor in China caused reductions in agriculture and a 2nd population boom. The backward nature of China's agriculture requires increased labor input to increase production. On the other hand, the increased productivity does not match the demands of the increased population. Consequently, living standards in the society decrease and the population growth slows. The emphasis on population control and family planning is indeed beneficial to China's economy. The fundamental solution of China's population problem must rely on a technical revolution in agriculture and increased agricultural productivity. PMID:12263424

  9. The Economic Base of Recent Population Growth in Nonmetropolitan Settings.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Long, Larry; DeAre, Diana

    In the late 1970s both jobs and population were growing more rapidly outside metropolitan areas. As a group, nonmetropolitan counties not adjacent to a metropolitan area experienced a faster rate of employment growth than metropolitan areas between 1975-79. Even in rural counties (no urban place of 2,500 or more) not adjacent to a metropolitan…

  10. Computer Simulation of the Population Growth (Schizosaccharomyces Pombe) Experiment.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Daley, Michael; Hillier, Douglas

    1981-01-01

    Describes a computer program (available from authors) developed to simulate "Growth of a Population (Yeast) Experiment." Students actively revise the counting techniques with realistically simulated haemocytometer or eye-piece grid and are reminded of the necessary dilution technique. Program can be modified to introduce such variables as…

  11. Is There Hidden Potential for Rural Population Growth in Sweden?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Niedomysl, Thomas; Amcoff, Jan

    2011-01-01

    Rural depopulation is a concern in many countries, and various policy initiatives have been taken to combat such trends. This article examines whether hidden potential for rural population growth can be found in Sweden. If such potential exists, it implies that the development prospects for many rural areas are not as unpromising as they may seem…

  12. An American Laboratory: Population Growth and Environmental Quality in California.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McConnell, Robert

    1993-01-01

    Describes the cumulative impact of rapid population growth, industrial and military activity, agriculture, and motor vehicles on California's environmental and social fabric. Discusses these problems in California as a forecast for the nation and test to consensus-based U.S. representative government. (Author/ MCO)

  13. The Educational Effects of Rapid Rural Population Growth.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ross, Peggy J.; Green, Bernal L.

    Rapid population growth in rural areas has confronted rural communities and particularly rural educational systems with a number of problems. Sudden, large increases in students crowd school facilities and strain budgets. The different values, attitudes, and orientations toward education of the newcomers act as a catalyst for changes and can cause…

  14. Immigration enhances fast growth of a newly established source population.

    PubMed

    Santoro, Simone; Green, Andy J; Figuerola, Jordi

    2016-04-01

    Abstract. Immigration and local recruitment play a central role in determining the growth rate of breeding populations. Unraveling these processes in newly established pop- ulations is of great importance to increase our understanding of how species change their distributions in response to global change. We studied the largest colony of glossy ibis (Plegadis falcinellus) in Western Europe (established in 1996 in Doñana, SW-Spain) by using capture-recapture methods, count estimates, and projection matrix modeling to: (1) test the effect of resource availability and competition on local recruitment dynamics, (2) investigate the contribution of local recruitment vs. immigration on population growth, and (3) assess the role of this population in source/sink dynamics. We found different dynamics before and after the establishment of satellite colonies in Doñana in 2004. Between 1996 and 2003, the population increased rapidly, fueled by immigrants (≈ 58 breeding females/ yr). Between 2003 and 2007, however, both colony size increase and immigration were negligible. Immigration played a major role in colony growth, but simultaneously this colony was a source population driving expansion of the species range as suggested by (1) absolute and relative estimates of the observed growth rate relative to that predicted by self-recruitment, and (2) numerous observations of Doñana-born individuals breeding elsewhere. Local recruitment, which was particularly high for first-year individuals (probability > 0.8 for the early study years), was not directly related to resource availability or previous-year breeding success. Local recruitment decreased rapidly at a threshold population size, however, when other satellite colonies became established at Dofiana. Our study suggests that even when recruitment at an early age and high productivity are observed, immigration can still play a pivotal role in promoting the fast growth of new populations at the edge of a species range, at

  15. Immigration enhances fast growth of a newly established source population.

    PubMed

    Santoro, Simone; Green, Andy J; Figuerola, Jordi

    2016-04-01

    Abstract. Immigration and local recruitment play a central role in determining the growth rate of breeding populations. Unraveling these processes in newly established pop- ulations is of great importance to increase our understanding of how species change their distributions in response to global change. We studied the largest colony of glossy ibis (Plegadis falcinellus) in Western Europe (established in 1996 in Doñana, SW-Spain) by using capture-recapture methods, count estimates, and projection matrix modeling to: (1) test the effect of resource availability and competition on local recruitment dynamics, (2) investigate the contribution of local recruitment vs. immigration on population growth, and (3) assess the role of this population in source/sink dynamics. We found different dynamics before and after the establishment of satellite colonies in Doñana in 2004. Between 1996 and 2003, the population increased rapidly, fueled by immigrants (≈ 58 breeding females/ yr). Between 2003 and 2007, however, both colony size increase and immigration were negligible. Immigration played a major role in colony growth, but simultaneously this colony was a source population driving expansion of the species range as suggested by (1) absolute and relative estimates of the observed growth rate relative to that predicted by self-recruitment, and (2) numerous observations of Doñana-born individuals breeding elsewhere. Local recruitment, which was particularly high for first-year individuals (probability > 0.8 for the early study years), was not directly related to resource availability or previous-year breeding success. Local recruitment decreased rapidly at a threshold population size, however, when other satellite colonies became established at Dofiana. Our study suggests that even when recruitment at an early age and high productivity are observed, immigration can still play a pivotal role in promoting the fast growth of new populations at the edge of a species range, at

  16. Habitat-Specific Population Growth of a Farmland Bird

    PubMed Central

    Arlt, Debora; Forslund, Pär; Jeppsson, Tobias; Pärt, Tomas

    2008-01-01

    Background To assess population persistence of species living in heterogeneous landscapes, the effects of habitat on reproduction and survival have to be investigated. Methodology/Principal Findings We used a matrix population model to estimate habitat-specific population growth rates for a population of northern wheatears Oenanthe oenanthe breeding in farmland consisting of a mosaic of distinct habitat (land use) types. Based on extensive long-term data on reproduction and survival, habitats characterised by tall field layers (spring- and autumn-sown crop fields, ungrazed grasslands) displayed negative stochastic population growth rates (log λs: −0.332, −0.429, −0.168, respectively), that were markedly lower than growth rates of habitats characterised by permanently short field layers (pastures grazed by cattle or horses, and farmyards, log λs: −0.056, +0.081, −0.059). Although habitats differed with respect to reproductive performance, differences in habitat-specific population growth were largely due to differences in adult and first-year survival rates, as shown by a life table response experiment (LTRE). Conclusions/Significance Our results show that estimation of survival rates is important for realistic assessments of habitat quality. Results also indicate that grazed grasslands and farmyards may act as source habitats, whereas crop fields and ungrazed grasslands with tall field layers may act as sink habitats. We suggest that the strong decline of northern wheatears in Swedish farmland may be linked to the corresponding observed loss of high quality breeding habitat, i.e. grazed semi-natural grasslands. PMID:18714351

  17. Increased diffuse radiation fraction does not significantly accelerate plant growth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Angert, Alon; Krakauer, Nir

    2010-05-01

    A recent modelling study (Mercado et al., 2009) claims that increased numbers of scattering aerosols are responsible for a substantial fraction of the terrestrial carbon sink in recent decades because higher diffuse light fraction enhances plant net primary production (NPP). Here we show that observations of atmospheric CO2 seasonal cycle and tree ring data indicate that the relation between diffuse light and NPP is actually quite weak on annual timescales. The inconsistency of these data with the modelling results may arise because the relationships used to quantify the enhancement of NPP were calibrated with eddy covariance measurements of hourly carbon uptake. The effect of diffuse-light fraction on carbon uptake could depend on timescale, since this effect varies rapidly as sun angle and cloudiness change, and since plants can respond dynamically over various timescales to change in incoming radiation. Volcanic eruptions, such as the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991, provide the best available tests for the effect of an annual-scale increase in the diffuse light fraction. Following the Pinatubo Eruption, in 1992 and 1993, a sharp decrease in the atmospheric CO2 growth rate was observed. This could have resulted from enhanced plant carbon uptake. Mercado et al. (2009) argue that largely as a result of the (volcanic aerosol driven) increase in diffuse light fraction, NPP was elevated in 1992, particularly between 25° N-45° N where annual NPP was modelled to be ~0.8 PgC (~10%) above average. In a previous study (Angert et al., 2004) a biogeochemical model (CASA) linked to an atmospheric tracer model (MATCH), was used to show that a diffuse-radiation driven increase in NPP in the extratropics will enhance carbon uptake mostly in summer, leading to a lower CO2 seasonal minimum. Here we use a 'toy model' to show that this conclusion is general and model-independent. The model shows that an enhanced sink of 0.8 PgC, similar to that modelled by Mercado et al. (2009

  18. Itô versus Stratonovich calculus in random population growth.

    PubMed

    Braumann, Carlos A

    2007-03-01

    The context is the general stochastic differential equation (SDE) model dN/dt=N(g(N)+sigmaepsilon(t)) for population growth in a randomly fluctuating environment. Here, N=N(t) is the population size at time t, g(N) is the 'average' per capita growth rate (we work with a general almost arbitrary function g), and sigmaepsilon(t) is the effect of environmental fluctuations (sigma>0, epsilon(t) standard white noise). There are two main stochastic calculus used to interpret the SDE, Itô calculus and Stratonovich calculus. They yield different solutions and even qualitatively different predictions (on extinction, for example). So, there is a controversy on which calculus one should use. We will resolve the controversy and show that the real issue is merely semantic. It is due to the informal interpretation of g(x) as being an (unspecified) 'average' per capita growth rate (when population size is x). The implicit assumption usually made in the literature is that the 'average' growth rate is the same for both calculi, when indeed this rate should be defined in terms of the observed process. We prove that, when using Itô calculus, g(N) is indeed the arithmetic average growth rate R(a)(x) and, when using Stratonovich calculus, g(N) is indeed the geometric average growth rate R(g)(x). Writing the solutions of the SDE in terms of a well-defined average, R(a)(x) or R(g)(x), instead of an undefined 'average' g(x), we prove that the two calculi yield exactly the same solution. The apparent difference was due to the semantic confusion of taking the informal term 'average growth rate' as meaning the same average.

  19. Neighbors' problems, our problems: population growth in Central America.

    PubMed

    Fox, R W

    1990-06-01

    A largely ignored issue, Central America faces its most pressing problem in its soaring population growth, one that is wreaking havoc on its economic and social infrastructures. Rising by a factor of 7, Central America's population -- presently 28.9 million -- is expected to reach 7.7 million by the year 2000, and 62.8 million by 2025. Typical of most of the Third World, Central America's population explosion stems from the fact that while the latter half of the 20th century has seen reductions of mortality rates, brought on by improvements of general health conditions, birth rates have remained excessively high. Despite moderate declines in the birth rate, Central American women still average 3-6 children. These demographic factors pose catastrophic consequences for Central America's natural resources, urban development and labor force. And they also threaten to increase migration to the US. Economic pressures have put great demands on the region's rain forests, exploited both for its resources and cleared away to create farmland. Today, only 40% of the original forest remains, and almost 3% more is destroyed annually. The area's capital cities have seen their populations increase 3-6 fold between 1950 and 1980. This explosion places further demands on already overburdened urban infrastructures, and has led to a mushrooming of squatter settlements. It has also led to a massive increase in the urban labor force which cannot be accommodated by the region's economies, which are in disarray due to falling export commodity earnings, limited natural resources, and scant investment capital. The economic woes could further increase the flow of workers to the US (15-20% of El Salvador's total population has already filed to the US). Historically, the region had attempted to offset population growth through economic development, but such expectations were not met, especially with the economic decline that wiped out gains made during the 1960s and 70s. Only recently have the

  20. Islamic Republic of Iran population growth rate declines.

    PubMed

    1996-01-01

    In April 1996, at the 52nd Session of the UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), the delegate from the Islamic Republic of Iran announced that social indicators indicate acceptable improvement. The average population growth rate fell from 3.9% (1981-1991) to less than 2% (1995). High birth rates and an influx of refugees during 1981-1991 accounted for the high population growth rate. The marked decline in the birth rate, brought about mainly by effective family planning and health programs, has contributed greatly to the reduced population growth rate. The government has focused on rural areas. 86% of rural households now have access to piped water. More than 60% have electricity. The overall literacy rate in Iran has reached 79%. The entire population has access to free or subsidized primary health care services. The Second Development Plan of Iran centers on the significance of the role that mothers have in shaping society and individuals by their child raising abilities, particularly in the early years. The Iranian delegate endorsed the secretariat's plan for helping members and associate members to reach their development goals and objectives.

  1. A Study of the Effects of the Accelerated Reader Program on Fifth Grade Students' Reading Achievement Growth

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Melton, Cindy M.; Smothers, Bobbie C.; Anderson, Eugene; Fulton, Ray; Replogle, William H.; Thomas, Lisa

    2004-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to compare the reading achievement growth of fifth grade students following a year of participation in the Accelerated Reader program with the reading achievement growth of fifth grade students who did not participate in the Accelerated Reader program. The Terra Nova standardized achievement test was used as the…

  2. Maximizing oyster-reef growth supports green infrastructure with accelerating sea-level rise.

    PubMed

    Ridge, Justin T; Rodriguez, Antonio B; Joel Fodrie, F; Lindquist, Niels L; Brodeur, Michelle C; Coleman, Sara E; Grabowski, Jonathan H; Theuerkauf, Ethan J

    2015-01-01

    Within intertidal communities, aerial exposure (emergence during the tidal cycle) generates strong vertical zonation patterns with distinct growth boundaries regulated by physiological and external stressors. Forecasted accelerations in sea-level rise (SLR) will shift the position of these critical boundaries in ways we cannot yet fully predict, but landward migration will be impaired by coastal development, amplifying the importance of foundation species' ability to maintain their position relative to rising sea levels via vertical growth. Here we show the effects of emergence on vertical oyster-reef growth by determining the conditions at which intertidal reefs thrive and the sharp boundaries where reefs fail, which shift with changes in sea level. We found that oyster reef growth is unimodal relative to emergence, with greatest growth rates occurring between 20-40% exposure, and zero-growth boundaries at 10% and 55% exposures. Notably, along the lower growth boundary (10%), increased rates of SLR would outpace reef accretion, thereby reducing the depth range of substrate suitable for reef maintenance and formation, and exacerbating habitat loss along developed shorelines. Our results identify where, within intertidal areas, constructed or natural oyster reefs will persist and function best as green infrastructure to enhance coastal resiliency under conditions of accelerating SLR. PMID:26442712

  3. Maximizing oyster-reef growth supports green infrastructure with accelerating sea-level rise

    PubMed Central

    Ridge, Justin T.; Rodriguez, Antonio B.; Joel Fodrie, F.; Lindquist, Niels L.; Brodeur, Michelle C.; Coleman, Sara E.; Grabowski, Jonathan H.; Theuerkauf, Ethan J.

    2015-01-01

    Within intertidal communities, aerial exposure (emergence during the tidal cycle) generates strong vertical zonation patterns with distinct growth boundaries regulated by physiological and external stressors. Forecasted accelerations in sea-level rise (SLR) will shift the position of these critical boundaries in ways we cannot yet fully predict, but landward migration will be impaired by coastal development, amplifying the importance of foundation species’ ability to maintain their position relative to rising sea levels via vertical growth. Here we show the effects of emergence on vertical oyster-reef growth by determining the conditions at which intertidal reefs thrive and the sharp boundaries where reefs fail, which shift with changes in sea level. We found that oyster reef growth is unimodal relative to emergence, with greatest growth rates occurring between 20–40% exposure, and zero-growth boundaries at 10% and 55% exposures. Notably, along the lower growth boundary (10%), increased rates of SLR would outpace reef accretion, thereby reducing the depth range of substrate suitable for reef maintenance and formation, and exacerbating habitat loss along developed shorelines. Our results identify where, within intertidal areas, constructed or natural oyster reefs will persist and function best as green infrastructure to enhance coastal resiliency under conditions of accelerating SLR. PMID:26442712

  4. Maximizing oyster-reef growth supports green infrastructure with accelerating sea-level rise.

    PubMed

    Ridge, Justin T; Rodriguez, Antonio B; Joel Fodrie, F; Lindquist, Niels L; Brodeur, Michelle C; Coleman, Sara E; Grabowski, Jonathan H; Theuerkauf, Ethan J

    2015-10-07

    Within intertidal communities, aerial exposure (emergence during the tidal cycle) generates strong vertical zonation patterns with distinct growth boundaries regulated by physiological and external stressors. Forecasted accelerations in sea-level rise (SLR) will shift the position of these critical boundaries in ways we cannot yet fully predict, but landward migration will be impaired by coastal development, amplifying the importance of foundation species' ability to maintain their position relative to rising sea levels via vertical growth. Here we show the effects of emergence on vertical oyster-reef growth by determining the conditions at which intertidal reefs thrive and the sharp boundaries where reefs fail, which shift with changes in sea level. We found that oyster reef growth is unimodal relative to emergence, with greatest growth rates occurring between 20-40% exposure, and zero-growth boundaries at 10% and 55% exposures. Notably, along the lower growth boundary (10%), increased rates of SLR would outpace reef accretion, thereby reducing the depth range of substrate suitable for reef maintenance and formation, and exacerbating habitat loss along developed shorelines. Our results identify where, within intertidal areas, constructed or natural oyster reefs will persist and function best as green infrastructure to enhance coastal resiliency under conditions of accelerating SLR.

  5. Withaferin A inhibits in vivo growth of breast cancer cells accelerated by Notch2 knockdown.

    PubMed

    Kim, Su-Hyeong; Hahm, Eun-Ryeong; Arlotti, Julie A; Samanta, Suman K; Moura, Michelle B; Thorne, Stephen H; Shuai, Yongli; Anderson, Carolyn J; White, Alexander G; Lokshin, Anna; Lee, Joomin; Singh, Shivendra V

    2016-05-01

    The present study offers novel insights into the molecular circuitry of accelerated in vivo tumor growth by Notch2 knockdown in triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) cells. Therapeutic vulnerability of Notch2-altered growth to a small molecule (withaferin A, WA) is also demonstrated. MDA-MB-231 and SUM159 cells were used for the xenograft studies. A variety of technologies were deployed to elucidate the mechanisms underlying tumor growth augmentation by Notch2 knockdown and its reversal by WA, including Fluorescence Molecular Tomography for measurement of tumor angiogenesis in live mice, Seahorse Flux analyzer for ex vivo measurement of tumor metabolism, proteomics, and Luminex-based cytokine profiling. Stable knockdown of Notch2 resulted in accelerated in vivo tumor growth in both cells reflected by tumor volume and/or latency. For example, the wet tumor weight from mice bearing Notch2 knockdown MDA-MB-231 cells was about 7.1-fold higher compared with control (P < 0.0001). Accelerated tumor growth by Notch2 knockdown was highly sensitive to inhibition by a promising steroidal lactone (WA) derived from a medicinal plant. Molecular underpinnings for tumor growth intensification by Notch2 knockdown included compensatory increase in Notch1 activation, increased cellular proliferation and/or angiogenesis, and increased plasma or tumor levels of growth stimulatory cytokines. WA administration reversed many of these effects providing explanation for its remarkable anti-cancer efficacy. Notch2 functions as a tumor growth suppressor in TNBC and WA offers a novel therapeutic strategy for restoring this function. PMID:27097807

  6. Deterministic versus stochastic aspects of superexponential population growth models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grosjean, Nicolas; Huillet, Thierry

    2016-08-01

    Deterministic population growth models with power-law rates can exhibit a large variety of growth behaviors, ranging from algebraic, exponential to hyperexponential (finite time explosion). In this setup, selfsimilarity considerations play a key role, together with two time substitutions. Two stochastic versions of such models are investigated, showing a much richer variety of behaviors. One is the Lamperti construction of selfsimilar positive stochastic processes based on the exponentiation of spectrally positive processes, followed by an appropriate time change. The other one is based on stable continuous-state branching processes, given by another Lamperti time substitution applied to stable spectrally positive processes.

  7. Philippine laws, regulations back policy to contain population growth.

    PubMed

    1974-01-01

    A recent compilation of population related decrees promulgated since martial law was declared in the Philippines in 1972 indicates that the government may be designing a legal framework encouraging voluntary limitation of family size. The list which was published in an appendix to the 1974-1977 Population Program, reveals that population influencing policies dealing with taxation, maternity benefits, incentive schemes and provision of family planning services by employers are already in effect. Since 1972 tax relief has been restricted to 4 dependents. Paid maternity leave is limited to the first 4 deliveries. Firms with over 300 employees are required to set up family planning clinics, and smaller firms must have infirmary personnel who are trained and certified in the provision of family planning services. Also, the Department of Labor is encouraging employers to develop incentive programs that will encourage workers to use effective family planning methods. The latest population plan also gives top priority to research, calls for targeting information to labor leaders, engaged couples, and out of school youth, and proposes disseminating population and family planning information through residential cooperatives and grass roots organizations. The aim of the current plan is to reduce the birthrate to 35.9 per 100 and the population growth rate to 2.47% by the end of the 4 year period. It is projected that by 1977 58% of the eligible population will be practicing contraception. PMID:12276795

  8. Philippine laws, regulations back policy to contain population growth.

    PubMed

    1974-01-01

    A recent compilation of population related decrees promulgated since martial law was declared in the Philippines in 1972 indicates that the government may be designing a legal framework encouraging voluntary limitation of family size. The list which was published in an appendix to the 1974-1977 Population Program, reveals that population influencing policies dealing with taxation, maternity benefits, incentive schemes and provision of family planning services by employers are already in effect. Since 1972 tax relief has been restricted to 4 dependents. Paid maternity leave is limited to the first 4 deliveries. Firms with over 300 employees are required to set up family planning clinics, and smaller firms must have infirmary personnel who are trained and certified in the provision of family planning services. Also, the Department of Labor is encouraging employers to develop incentive programs that will encourage workers to use effective family planning methods. The latest population plan also gives top priority to research, calls for targeting information to labor leaders, engaged couples, and out of school youth, and proposes disseminating population and family planning information through residential cooperatives and grass roots organizations. The aim of the current plan is to reduce the birthrate to 35.9 per 100 and the population growth rate to 2.47% by the end of the 4 year period. It is projected that by 1977 58% of the eligible population will be practicing contraception.

  9. Linear age-dependent population growth with seasonal harvesting.

    PubMed

    Sánchez, D A

    1980-06-01

    A population growth is modelled by the Von Foerster PDE with accompanying Lotka-Volterra integral equation describing the birth rate; the age specific death and fertility rates are assumed to depend only on age and not time. A harvesting policy where a fraction of the population of age greater than a given age is harvested for a fraction of a given season. This introduces a time dependence, but this difficulty is circumvented by devising approximate time-independent models whose birthrates bracket the true birthrate--the standard renewal equation theory applies to the approximate models so quantitative results can be obtained.

  10. Seed population for about 1 MeV per nucleon heavy ions accelerated by interplanetary shocks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tan, L. C.; Mason, G. M.; Klecker, B.; Hovestadt, D.

    1989-01-01

    Data obtained between 1977 and 1982 by the ISEE 1 and ISEE 3 satellites on the composition of heavy ions of about 1 MeV per nucleon, accelerated in interplanetary shock events which followed solar flare events, are examined. It was found that the average relative abundances for C, O, and Fe in the shock events were very close to those found for energetic ions in the solar flares, suggesting that, at these energies, the shock accelerated particles have the solar energetic particles as their seed population. This hypothesis is supported by the fact that the Fe/O ratio in the solar particle events is very strongly correlated with the Fe/O ratio in associated diffusive shock events.

  11. Seed limitation restricts population growth in shaded populations of a perennial woodland orchid.

    PubMed

    Jacquemyn, Hans; Brys, Rein; Jongejans, Eelke

    2010-01-01

    Seed production and seedling recruitment are thought to be of minor importance in determining population dynamics and long-term viability in long-lived perennial plants. Seed addition experiments, on the other hand, have amply shown that supplemental addition of seeds almost always, irrespective of longevity, results in increased seedling recruitment. Any change in the environment that affects fruit and seed production can thus be expected to affect seedling recruitment, but the extent to which increased fruit and seed production affect overall population dynamics remains relatively unknown. In this paper, we present demographic data of six populations of the long-lived woodland orchid Orchis purpurea that were monitored for seven consecutive years (2002-2008) occurring in two contrasting light environments. We use a nested life table response experiment (LTRE) at the vital rate level to disentangle the relative contributions of each of six annual transitions, six sites, and two light environments on the population dynamics of this species and to determine vital rate variations that contributed most to variation in population growth rate. Population growth rates (lamda) were significantly higher in the light environment than in the shaded environment (average lamda = 0.9930 and 1.0492 in the shaded and light environment, respectively). The LTRE analysis showed that variation in fecundity and, to a lesser extent, variation in growth made the largest total contributions to variation in lamda, whereas the contributions of variation in survival were almost negligible. Fruit production was two times larger and the net reproductive rate (R0) was approximately six times higher in the light environment than in shaded areas, suggesting that variables related to reproduction are the key drivers of population dynamics of this long-lived orchid species in different light environments. Our results indicate that light is an important factor affecting population dynamics of

  12. [The decline in population growth, income distribution, and economic recession].

    PubMed

    Banguero, H

    1983-05-01

    This work uses Keynesian principles and an analysis of the Colombian population in the 1970s to argue that the Colombian policy of slowing population growth, which was adopted with the aim of improving the general welfare of the population, has had shortterm negative effects on effective demand and thus on the level of employment and welfare. These negative effects were caused by the inflexibility of income distribution, which prevented expansion of the internal market, complicated by the stagnant condition of the external sector and the budget deficit. The results of the Colombian case study demonstrate how the deceleration of population growth beginning in the 1960s had a significant impact on the levels of consumption and savings and on the patterns of consumption, leading to low levels of investment and little dynamism. Although the current Colombian economic recession is aggravated by contextual factors such as the world economic recession, the high cost of capital, the industrial recession, and declining food production among others, at the core of the crisis are longer term structural determinants such as the decline in the rate of population growth and the highly unequal distribution of income and wealth, which have contributed to a shrinking of the internal market for some types of goods. Given the unlikelihood of renewed rapid population growth, the Keynesian model suggests that the only alternative for increasing aggregate demand is state intervention through public spending and investment and reorientation of the financial system to achieve a dynamic redistribution of income. Based on these findings and on proposals of other analysts, a stragegy for revitalization is proposed which would imply a gradual income redistribution to allow increased consumption of mass produced goods by the low income groups. Direct consumption subsidies would be avoided because of their inflationary and import-expanding tendencies; rather, incentives and support would be

  13. [The decline in population growth, income distribution, and economic recession].

    PubMed

    Banguero, H

    1983-05-01

    This work uses Keynesian principles and an analysis of the Colombian population in the 1970s to argue that the Colombian policy of slowing population growth, which was adopted with the aim of improving the general welfare of the population, has had shortterm negative effects on effective demand and thus on the level of employment and welfare. These negative effects were caused by the inflexibility of income distribution, which prevented expansion of the internal market, complicated by the stagnant condition of the external sector and the budget deficit. The results of the Colombian case study demonstrate how the deceleration of population growth beginning in the 1960s had a significant impact on the levels of consumption and savings and on the patterns of consumption, leading to low levels of investment and little dynamism. Although the current Colombian economic recession is aggravated by contextual factors such as the world economic recession, the high cost of capital, the industrial recession, and declining food production among others, at the core of the crisis are longer term structural determinants such as the decline in the rate of population growth and the highly unequal distribution of income and wealth, which have contributed to a shrinking of the internal market for some types of goods. Given the unlikelihood of renewed rapid population growth, the Keynesian model suggests that the only alternative for increasing aggregate demand is state intervention through public spending and investment and reorientation of the financial system to achieve a dynamic redistribution of income. Based on these findings and on proposals of other analysts, a stragegy for revitalization is proposed which would imply a gradual income redistribution to allow increased consumption of mass produced goods by the low income groups. Direct consumption subsidies would be avoided because of their inflationary and import-expanding tendencies; rather, incentives and support would be

  14. Fetal dexamethasone exposure accelerates development of renal function: relationship to dose, cell differentiation and growth inhibition.

    PubMed

    Slotkin, T A; Seidler, F J; Kavlock, R J; Gray, J A

    1992-02-01

    Fetal exposure to high doses of glucocorticoids slows cellular development and impairs organ performance, in association with growth retardation. Nevertheless, low doses of glucocorticoids may enhance cell differentiation and accelerate specific functions. The current study examined this apparent paradox in the developing rat kidney, using doses of dexamethasone that span the threshold for growth impairment: 0.05 or 0.2 mg/kg given on gestational days 17, 18 and 19. At the lower dose, which did not significantly retard body growth, the postnatal development of tubular reabsorptive capabilities for sodium, potassium, osmotic particles, water and urea was accelerated. These effects were less notable at the higher dose, which caused initial body growth impairment. The selectivity toward promotion of tubular function was evidenced by the absence of effect of either dose of dexamethasone on development of glomerular filtration rate. Because of the wide spectrum of dexamethasone's effects on tubular function, we also assessed fetal kidney adenylate cyclase as a means of detecting altered cell differentiation in the prenatal period during which dexamethasone was given. Either glucocorticoid dose increased the total adenylate cyclase catalytic activity (assessed with forskolin). Thus, the net effect of fetal dexamethasone exposure on development of renal excretory capabilities probably represents the summation of promoted cell differentiation and slowed development consequent to growth retardation. At low dose levels, the former effect predominates, leading to enhanced functional development, whereas higher doses that interfere with general growth and development can offset the direct promotional effect.

  15. Rapid population growth and environmental degradation: ultimate versus proximate factors.

    PubMed

    Shaw, R P

    1989-01-01

    This philosophical review of 2 arguments about responsibility for and solutions to environmental degradation concludes that both sides are correct: the ultimate and the proximal causes. Ultimate causes of pollution are defined as the technology responsible for a given type of pollution, such as burning fossil fuel; proximate causes are defined as situation-specific factors confounding the problem, such as population density or rate of growth. Commoner and others argue that developed countries with low or negative population growth rates are responsible for 80% of world pollution, primarily in polluting technologies such as automobiles, power generation, plastics, pesticides, toxic wastes, garbage, warfaring, and nuclear weapons wastes. Distortionary policies also contribute; examples are agricultural trade protection, land mismanagement, urban bias in expenditures, and institutional rigidity., Poor nations are responsible for very little pollution because poverty allows little waste or expenditures for polluting, synthetic technologies. The proximal causes of pollution include numbers and rate of growth of populations responsible for the pollution. Since change in the ultimate cause of pollution remains out of reach, altering the numbers of polluters can make a difference. Predictions are made for proportions of the world's total waste production, assuming current 1.6 tons/capita for developed countries and 0.17 tons/capita for developing countries. If developing countries grow at current rates and become more wealthy, they will be emitting half the world's waste by 2025. ON the other hand, unsustainable population growth goes along with inadequate investment in human capital: education, health, employment, infrastructure. The solution is to improve farming technologies in the 117 non-self-sufficient countries, fund development in the most unsustainable enclaves of growing countries, break institutionalized socio-political rigidity in these enclaves, and focus on

  16. Rapid population growth and environmental degradation: ultimate versus proximate factors.

    PubMed

    Shaw, R P

    1989-01-01

    This philosophical review of 2 arguments about responsibility for and solutions to environmental degradation concludes that both sides are correct: the ultimate and the proximal causes. Ultimate causes of pollution are defined as the technology responsible for a given type of pollution, such as burning fossil fuel; proximate causes are defined as situation-specific factors confounding the problem, such as population density or rate of growth. Commoner and others argue that developed countries with low or negative population growth rates are responsible for 80% of world pollution, primarily in polluting technologies such as automobiles, power generation, plastics, pesticides, toxic wastes, garbage, warfaring, and nuclear weapons wastes. Distortionary policies also contribute; examples are agricultural trade protection, land mismanagement, urban bias in expenditures, and institutional rigidity., Poor nations are responsible for very little pollution because poverty allows little waste or expenditures for polluting, synthetic technologies. The proximal causes of pollution include numbers and rate of growth of populations responsible for the pollution. Since change in the ultimate cause of pollution remains out of reach, altering the numbers of polluters can make a difference. Predictions are made for proportions of the world's total waste production, assuming current 1.6 tons/capita for developed countries and 0.17 tons/capita for developing countries. If developing countries grow at current rates and become more wealthy, they will be emitting half the world's waste by 2025. ON the other hand, unsustainable population growth goes along with inadequate investment in human capital: education, health, employment, infrastructure. The solution is to improve farming technologies in the 117 non-self-sufficient countries, fund development in the most unsustainable enclaves of growing countries, break institutionalized socio-political rigidity in these enclaves, and focus on

  17. Bcl-2 accelerates retinoic acid-induced growth arrest and recovery in human gastric cancer cells.

    PubMed Central

    Chou, H K; Chen, S L; Hsu, C T; Chao, Y C; Tsao, Y P

    2000-01-01

    The role of Bcl-2 as an anti-apoptotic protein has been well documented. In the present work, we present evidence that Bcl-2 may also be involved in cell growth regulation. SC-M1 is an unique cell line which responds to retinoic acid (RA) treatment with reversible growth arrest [Shyu, Jiang, Huang, Chang, Wu, Roffler and Yeh (1995) Eur. J. Cancer 31, 237-243]. In this study, when treated with RA, SC-M1/Bcl2 cells, which were generated by transfecting SC-M1 cells with bcl-2 DNA, were growth-arrested two days earlier than SC-M1/neo cells, which were generated by transfecting SC-M1 cells with vector DNA. This indicates that Bcl-2 accelerates RA-induced growth arrest. In addition to the accelerated growth arrest, RA-treated SC-M1/Bcl2 cells also recovered from growth arrest two days faster than SC-M1/neo cells after the removal of RA. Previously, we had identified the cyclin-dependent kinase inhibitor p21((WAF1/CIP1)) (p21) as a mediator of RA-induced growth arrest [Tsao, Li, Kuo, Liu and Chen (1996) Biochem. J. 317, 707-711]. In a search for the mechanism by which Bcl-2 affects growth regulation, we found that p21 gene expression was more prominent in SC-M1/Bcl2 cells than in SC-M1/neo cells in the presence of RA, but when RA was removed, p21 gene expression levels in SC-M1/Bcl2 cells were also reduced earlier than in SC-M1/neo cells. The present report is the first to show that Bcl-2 accelerates not only growth arrest but also recovery from growth arrest. Moreover, the close correlation between the effect of Bcl-2 on both RA-induced growth arrest and RA-induced p21 gene expression suggests the possibility that Bcl-2 affects cell growth through the mechanism of p21. PMID:10816444

  18. Growth rates in a captive population of Tonkean macaques.

    PubMed

    Sanna, Andrea; De Marco, Arianna; Thierry, Bernard; Cozzolino, Roberto

    2015-07-01

    Measuring variations in body mass is necessary to gain a deeper understanding of the evolution of life-history patterns, and it provides information on the timing of sexual maturity and the development of sexual dimorphism. In this study, we collected longitudinal data on body mass from infancy to adulthood in a captive population of Tonkean macaques (Macaca tonkeana). Tests to evaluate whether social group, maternal age, and dominance rank influenced growth rates showed that they had no significant effect. We investigated the timing and magnitude of breaking points in the growth paths of males and females, and checked whether these breaking points could correspond to specific reproductive and morphological developmental events. We found that male and female Tonkean macaques have roughly equivalent body masses until around the age of four, when males go through an adolescent growth spurt and females continue to grow at a constant rate. Males not only grow faster than females, but they also continue to grow for nearly one and a half years after females have attained their full body mass. Growth rate differences account for approximately two-thirds of the body mass sexual dimorphism; only the remaining third results from continued male growth beyond the age where full body mass is reached in females. We also discovered remarkable correspondences between the timing of testicular enlargement and the adolescent growth spurt in males, and between dental development and slowdown breaking points in both sexes.

  19. Sweden Faces Zero Population Growth. Population Bulletin, Vol. 35, No. 2, June, 1980.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gendell, Murray

    This bulletin examines the causes of the fertility decline in Sweden and the concerns and ambivalence of Swedes about zero population growth (ZPG). The fertility decline is attributed to many causes. In recent years there has been a drop in marriage rates and a sharp increase in non-marital cohabitation. The decline is also related to the…

  20. Minimal models of growth and decline of microbial populations.

    PubMed

    Juška, Alfonsas

    2011-01-21

    Dynamics of growth and decline of microbial populations were analysed and respective models were developed in this investigation. Analysis of the dynamics was based on general considerations concerning the main properties of microorganisms and their interactions with the environment which was supposed to be affected by the activity of the population. Those considerations were expressed mathematically by differential equations or systems of the equations containing minimal sets of parameters characterizing those properties. It has been found that: (1) the factors leading to the decline of the population have to be considered separately, namely, accumulation of metabolites (toxins) in the medium and the exhaustion of resources; the latter have to be separated again into renewable ('building materials') and non-renewable (sources of energy); (2) decline of the population is caused by the exhaustion of sources of energy but no decline is predicted by the model because of the exhaustion of renewable resources; (3) the model determined by the accumulation of metabolites (toxins) in the medium does not suggest the existence of a separate 'stationary phase'; (4) in the model determined by the exhaustion of energy resources the 'stationary' and 'decline' phases are quite discernible; and (5) there is no symmetry in microbial population dynamics, the decline being slower than the rise. Mathematical models are expected to be useful in getting insight into the process of control of the dynamics of microbial populations. The models are in agreement with the experimental data. PMID:21036180

  1. Early Acceleration of Mathematics Students and its Effect on Growth in Self-esteem: A Longitudinal Study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ma, Xin

    2002-11-01

    The Longitudinal Study of American Youth (LSAY) database was employed to examine the educational practice of early acceleration of students of mathematics on the development of their self-esteem across the entire secondary grade levels. Students were classified into three different academic categories (gifted, honors, and regular). Results indicated that, in terms of the development of their self-esteem, gifted students benefited from early acceleration, honors students neither benefited nor were harmed by early acceleration, and regular students were harmed by early acceleration. Early acceleration in mathematics promoted significant growth in self-esteem among gifted male students and among gifted, honors, and regular minority students. When students were accelerated, schools showed similar average growth in self-esteem among gifted students and regular students and a large effect of general support for mathematics on the average growth in self-esteem among honors students.

  2. Stochastic resonance in a generalized Von Foerster population growth model

    SciTech Connect

    Lumi, N.; Mankin, R.

    2014-11-12

    The stochastic dynamics of a population growth model, similar to the Von Foerster model for human population, is studied. The influence of fluctuating environment on the carrying capacity is modeled as a multiplicative dichotomous noise. It is established that an interplay between nonlinearity and environmental fluctuations can cause single unidirectional discontinuous transitions of the mean population size versus the noise amplitude, i.e., an increase of noise amplitude can induce a jump from a state with a moderate number of individuals to that with a very large number, while by decreasing the noise amplitude an opposite transition cannot be effected. An analytical expression of the mean escape time for such transitions is found. Particularly, it is shown that the mean transition time exhibits a strong minimum at intermediate values of noise correlation time, i.e., the phenomenon of stochastic resonance occurs. Applications of the results in ecology are also discussed.

  3. What is Growth? Concurrent determination of a bacterial population's many shades of growth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lambert, Guillaume; Kussell, Edo

    2013-03-01

    One of the most exciting developments in the study of the physics of microbial life is the ability to precisely monitor stochastic variations of gene expression in individual cells. A fundamental question is whether these variations improve the long-term ability of a population to adapt to new environments. While variations in gene expression in bacteria are easily measured through the use of reporter systems such as green fluorescent proteins and its variants, precise determination of a cell's growth rate, and how it is influenced by its immediate environment, remains challenging. Here, we show that many conflicting and ambiguous definitions of bacterial growth can actually be used interchangeably in E. coli. Indeed, by monitoring small populations of E. coli bacteria inside a microfluidic device, we show that seemingly independent measurements of growth (elongation rate and the average division time, for instance) agree very precisely with one another. We combine these definitions with the population's length and age distribution to very precisely quantify the influence of temperature variations on a population's growth rate. We conclude by using coalescence theory to describe the evolution of a population's genetic structure over time.

  4. Consequences of bounds on longitudinal emittance growth for the design of recirculating linear accelerators

    SciTech Connect

    Berg, J. S.

    2015-05-03

    Recirculating linear accelerators (RLAs) are a cost-effective method for the acceleration of muons for a muon collider in energy ranges from a couple GeV to a few 10s of GeV. Muon beams generally have longitudinal emittances that are large for the RF frequency that is used, and it is important to limit the growth of that longitudinal emittance. This has particular consequences for the arc design of the RLAs. I estimate the longitudinal emittance growth in an RLA arising from the RF nonlinearity. Given an emittance growth limitation and other design parameters, one can then compute the maximum momentum compaction in the arcs. I describe how to obtain an approximate arc design satisfying these requirements based on the deisgn in [1]. Longitudinal dynamics also determine the energy spread in the beam, and this has consequences on the transverse phase advance in the linac. This in turn has consequences for the arc design due to the need to match beta functions. I combine these considerations to discuss design parameters for the acceleration of muons for a collider in an RLA from 5 to 63 GeV.

  5. Apocalypse when? Population growth and food supply in South Asia.

    PubMed

    Greenspan, A

    1994-12-01

    Food demands for staple grains are expected to almost double over the next 25 years in South Asia, due to population growth and increased standards of living. Trends in the mid-1990s suggest that neither pessimism nor optimism prevails in the region. There is wide diversity among and within countries. Trends suggest that population densities are already the highest in the world, and the amount of arable land is declining. Urban growth has moved onto farm land and farmers have been pushed onto more marginal lands or have become landless. Land intensification has produced mixed results. Cereal production per capita has increased since the 1950s in India, with about 75% of the region's population, but Pakistan's increases were not sustained into the 1980s. Average daily caloric intake per person in the region of 2214 is below the level in Sub-Saharan Africa. In Bangladesh, levels are particularly worrisome at 2037. The environmental impact has not been easily quantified, but experts have suggested that pressure on farm land has contributed to loss of soil fertility and water resource loss. Further intensification of farming is feasible, but difficult and more expensive than in the past. Regardless of production problems and solutions, there is also the very real problem of poor food distribution and lack of purchasing power. Farm management skills must be utilized, if environmental degradation is to be avoided. There is the added unknown of what climate changes will occur and how agricultural production will be affected. The policy implications are that increased food production must be made a political priority. Policies must support agricultural research into improved technologies and support distribution of technological advances to a wider number of farmers. Rural infrastructures such as roads, market outlets, and credit agencies must be established. Policies must be removed that disadvantage farmers, such as inappropriate subsidies for irrigation water

  6. Apocalypse when? Population growth and food supply in South Asia.

    PubMed

    Greenspan, A

    1994-12-01

    Food demands for staple grains are expected to almost double over the next 25 years in South Asia, due to population growth and increased standards of living. Trends in the mid-1990s suggest that neither pessimism nor optimism prevails in the region. There is wide diversity among and within countries. Trends suggest that population densities are already the highest in the world, and the amount of arable land is declining. Urban growth has moved onto farm land and farmers have been pushed onto more marginal lands or have become landless. Land intensification has produced mixed results. Cereal production per capita has increased since the 1950s in India, with about 75% of the region's population, but Pakistan's increases were not sustained into the 1980s. Average daily caloric intake per person in the region of 2214 is below the level in Sub-Saharan Africa. In Bangladesh, levels are particularly worrisome at 2037. The environmental impact has not been easily quantified, but experts have suggested that pressure on farm land has contributed to loss of soil fertility and water resource loss. Further intensification of farming is feasible, but difficult and more expensive than in the past. Regardless of production problems and solutions, there is also the very real problem of poor food distribution and lack of purchasing power. Farm management skills must be utilized, if environmental degradation is to be avoided. There is the added unknown of what climate changes will occur and how agricultural production will be affected. The policy implications are that increased food production must be made a political priority. Policies must support agricultural research into improved technologies and support distribution of technological advances to a wider number of farmers. Rural infrastructures such as roads, market outlets, and credit agencies must be established. Policies must be removed that disadvantage farmers, such as inappropriate subsidies for irrigation water

  7. Interspecific synchrony of seabird population growth rate and breeding success

    PubMed Central

    Robinson, James P W; Dornelas, Maria; Ojanguren, Alfredo F

    2013-01-01

    Environmental variability can destabilize communities by causing correlated interspecific fluctuations that weaken the portfolio effect, yet evidence of such a mechanism is rare in natural systems. Here, we ask whether the population dynamics of similar sympatric species of a seabird breeding community are synchronized, and if these species have similar exceptional responses to environmental variation. We used a 24-year time series of the breeding success and population growth rate of a marine top predator species group to assess the degree of synchrony between species demography. We then developed a novel method to examine the species group – all species combined – response to environmental variability, in particular, whether multiple species experience similar, pronounced fluctuations in their demography. Multiple species were positively correlated in breeding success and growth rate. Evidence of “exceptional” years was found, where the species group experienced pronounced fluctuations in their demography. The synchronous response of the species group was negatively correlated with winter sea surface temperature of the preceding year for both growth rate and breeding success. We present evidence for synchronous, exceptional responses of a species group that are driven by environmental variation. Such species covariation destabilizes communities by reducing the portfolio effect, and such exceptional responses may increase the risk of a state change in this community. Our understanding of the future responses to environmental change requires an increased focus on the short-term fluctuations in demography that are driven by extreme environmental variability. PMID:23919147

  8. Population growth and poverty in the developing world.

    PubMed

    Birdsall, N

    1980-12-01

    The links between rapid population growth and the absolute poverty currently affecting 780 million people in the developing countries (excluding China and other centrally planned economies) were examined. Absolute poverty is defined as having less than the income necessary to ensure a daily diet of 2150 calories per person ($200 per person a year in 1970 United States dollars). Focus is on poverty and demography in the developing world (defining poverty; income, fertility and life expectancy; demographic change and poverty), effect of poverty on fertility, family planning programs and the poor, and the outlook for the future. Rapid population growth stretches both national and family budgets thin with the increasing numbers of children to be fed and educated and workers to be provided with jobs. Slower per capita income growth, lack of progress in reducing income inequality, and more poverty are the probable consequences. Many characteristics of poverty can cause high fertility -- high infant mortality, lack of education for women in particular, too little family income to invest in children, inequitable shares in national income, and the inaccessibility of family planning. Experience in China, Indonesia, Taiwan, Colombia, Korea, Sri Lanka, Cuba and Costa Rica demonstrate that birthrates can decline rapidly in low income groups and countries when basic health care, education, and low-cost or free family planning services are made widely available. PMID:12262264

  9. Population growth and United States politics in the 1970s.

    PubMed

    Nash, A E

    1973-01-01

    The 2 themes of this century, increasing environmental fragility and increasing human demands on government, are underlined by the failure of government to effectively govern, and the complex technology and modern communication systems which further divide the developing nations from the developed ones. Population stabilization may help relieve the tension between increasing expectation from government and the fiscal bind in 3 ways: 1)a higher per capita income would increase per capita government revenue which would have a better chance of meeting citizen expectations, 2)a moderately redistributive effect on personal income might occur by decreasing unwanted fertility through the dynamics of economics and increasing the role of government in elevating living standards, and 3)with reduction of government expenditure per capita, the cost of providing any given level of service would decrease. The nuclear age has altered the concept of what constitutes national security. Rapid population growth in the developing countries is also significant, and the United States economy depends on overseas investment. A constructive foreign policy, as opposed to neoimperialism or isolationism, is recommended to help influence world population growth. PMID:4788263

  10. Tuning calcite morphology and growth acceleration by a rational design of highly stable protein-mimetics

    SciTech Connect

    Chen, Chunlong; Qi, Jiahui; Tao, Jinhui; Zuckermann, Ronald; De Yoreo, James J.

    2014-09-05

    In nature, proteins play a significant role in biomineral formation. One of the ultimate goals of bioinspired materials science is to develop highly stable synthetic molecules that mimic the function of these natural proteins by controlling crystal formation. Here, we demonstrate that both the morphology and the degree of acceleration or inhibition observed during growth of calcite in the presence of peptoids can be rationally tuned by balancing the electrostatic interactions (EI) and hydrophobic interactions (HI), with HI playing the dominant role. While either strong EI or HI inhibit growth and suppress (104) face expression, correlations between peptoid-crystal binding energies and observed changes in calcite growth indicate moderate EI allow peptoids to weakly adsorb while moderate HI cause disruption of surface-adsorbed water layers, leading to growth acceleration with retained expression of (104) faces. This study provides fundamental principles for designing peptoids as crystallization promoters, and offers a straightforward screening method based on macroscopic crystal morphology. Because peptoids are sequence-specific, highly stable, and easily synthesized, peptoid-enhanced crystallization offers a broad range of potential applications.

  11. Tuning calcite morphology and growth acceleration by a rational design of highly stable protein-mimetics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Chun-Long; Qi, Jiahui; Tao, Jinhui; Zuckermann, Ronald N.; Deyoreo, James J.

    2014-09-01

    In nature, proteins play a significant role in biomineral formation. One of the ultimate goals of bioinspired materials science is to develop highly stable synthetic molecules that mimic the function of these natural proteins by controlling crystal formation. Here, we demonstrate that both the morphology and the degree of acceleration or inhibition observed during growth of calcite in the presence of peptoids can be rationally tuned by balancing the electrostatic and hydrophobic interactions, with hydrophobic interactions playing the dominant role. While either strong electrostatic or hydrophobic interactions inhibit growth and reduces expression of the {104} faces, correlations between peptoid-crystal binding energies and observed changes in calcite growth indicate moderate electrostatic interactions allow peptoids to weakly adsorb while moderate hydrophobic interactions cause disruption of surface-adsorbed water layers, leading to growth acceleration with retained expression of the {104} faces. This study provides fundamental principles for designing peptoids as crystallization promoters, and offers a straightforward screening method based on macroscopic crystal morphology. Because peptoids are sequence-specific, highly stable, and easily synthesized, peptoid-enhanced crystallization offers a broad range of potential applications.

  12. Network effect of knowledge spillover: Scale-free networks stimulate R&D activities and accelerate economic growth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Konno, Tomohiko

    2016-09-01

    We study how knowledge spillover networks affect research and development (R&D) activities and economic growth. For this purpose, we extend a Schumpeterian growth model to the one on networks that depict the knowledge spillover relationships of R&D. We show that scale-free networks stimulate R&D activities and accelerate economic growth.

  13. Growth in an English population from the Industrial Revolution.

    PubMed

    Mays, S; Brickley, M; Ives, R

    2008-05-01

    The rapid urbanization of the Industrial Revolution in 18th-19th century England presented new health challenges. Our aim is to investigate using English skeletal remains whether the living conditions for an urban working class group in the Industrial Revolution negatively impacted upon their skeletal growth compared with a population from a rural agrarian parish. The Industrial Revolution skeletal material is from St Martin's Churchyard, Birmingham (SMB), West Midlands. It dates primarily from the first half of the nineteenth century when Birmingham was a major manufacturing center. The rural group is from Wharram Percy (WP), North Yorkshire, and dates from 10th-19th century AD. The methodology involves plotting diaphyseal bone lengths versus dental age for subadults. No overall difference was found between the two populations in bone length-for-age among the 2- to 18-year cohort. However the younger parts of the SMB cohort were smaller than at WP; the opposite was true of the older parts of the cohort. Growth rate, as inferred from crosssectional data, appeared greater at SMB than at WP. The only result consistent with expectations is the larger bone dimensions in young children from WP, but this likely reflects prolonged breastfeeding at WP not differences in urban and rural environments. That the deleterious health effects that we know accompanied the major transition in human society from a rural agrarian to an urban industrialized living environment should be little manifest in skeletal endochondral growth data is discouraging for those who would use such methodology to monitor health in earlier populations.

  14. Modelling population growth with delayed nonlocal reaction in 2-dimensions.

    PubMed

    Liang, Dong; Wu, Jianhong; Zhang, Fan

    2005-01-01

    In this paper, we consider the population growth of a single species living in a two-dimensional spatial domain. New reaction-difusion equation models with delayed nonlocal reaction are developed in two-dimensional bounded domains combining diferent boundary conditions. The important feature of the models is the reflection of the joint efect of the difusion dynamics and the nonlocal maturation delayed efect. We consider and ana- lyze numerical solutions of the mature population dynamics with some wellknown birth functions. In particular, we observe and study the occurrences of asymptotically stable steady state solutions and periodic waves for the two-dimensional problems with nonlocal delayed reaction. We also investigate numerically the efects of various parameters on the period, the peak and the shape of the periodic wave as well as the shape of the asymptotically stable steady state solution.

  15. Population growth of Yellowstone grizzly bears: Uncertainty and future monitoring

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Harris, R.B.; White, Gary C.; Schwartz, C.C.; Haroldson, M.A.

    2007-01-01

    Grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem of the US Rocky Mountains have recently increased in numbers, but remain vulnerable due to isolation from other populations and predicted reductions in favored food resources. Harris et al. (2006) projected how this population might fare in the future under alternative survival rates, and in doing so estimated the rate of population growth, 1983–2002. We address issues that remain from that earlier work: (1) the degree of uncertainty surrounding our estimates of the rate of population change (λ); (2) the effect of correlation among demographic parameters on these estimates; and (3) how a future monitoring system using counts of females accompanied by cubs might usefully differentiate between short-term, expected, and inconsequential fluctuations versus a true change in system state. We used Monte Carlo re-sampling of beta distributions derived from the demographic parameters used by Harris et al. (2006) to derive distributions of λ during 1983–2002 given our sampling uncertainty. Approximate 95% confidence intervals were 0.972–1.096 (assuming females with unresolved fates died) and 1.008–1.115 (with unresolved females censored at last contact). We used well-supported models of Haroldson et al. (2006) and Schwartz et al. (2006a,b,c) to assess the strength of correlations among demographic processes and the effect of omitting them in projection models. Incorporating correlations among demographic parameters yielded point estimates of λ that were nearly identical to those from the earlier model that omitted correlations, but yielded wider confidence intervals surrounding λ. Finally, we suggest that fitting linear and quadratic curves to the trend suggested by the estimated number of females with cubs in the ecosystem, and using AICc model weights to infer population sizes and λ provides an objective means to monitoring approximate population trajectories in addition to demographic

  16. Social policy and population growth in South-East Asia.

    PubMed

    You Poh Seng Rao, B; Shantakumar, G

    1974-01-01

    Social and population policies are considered for the 10 countries comprising Southeast Asia--Burma, Indonesia, the Khmer Republic, Laos, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, North Vietnam, and South Vietnam. All but Singapore have high fertility rates and Burma, Indonesia, the Khmer Republic, Laos and the two Vietnams have high mortality rates also. Government expenditures for education and social security systems is expanding throughout the region and it is hoped that their continued growth will contribute substantially to the effective implementation of population policies. Population policies in the 5 countries which have them are discussed. These are Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand. It is noted, however, that declaration of policy is but the first step. Strategies and programs differ from one country to the next and depend very much on the stage of development, level of literacy, degree of urbanization, and other factors. Family planning activities generally are endogenous to urban social systems but exogenous to rural social systems. Thus, the rural elite has a large role to play in making population policies an integral part of rural life. The possibility is considered of developing workable incentive packages integrating health, education, and social security benefits with suitable emphasis on fertility reduction.

  17. Herbivory: effects on plant abundance, distribution and population growth

    PubMed Central

    Maron, John L; Crone, Elizabeth

    2006-01-01

    Plants are attacked by many different consumers. A critical question is how often, and under what conditions, common reductions in growth, fecundity or even survival that occur due to herbivory translate to meaningful impacts on abundance, distribution or dynamics of plant populations. Here, we review population-level studies of the effects of consumers on plant dynamics and evaluate: (i) whether particular consumers have predictably more or less influence on plant abundance, (ii) whether particular plant life-history types are predictably more vulnerable to herbivory at the population level, (iii) whether the strength of plant–consumer interactions shifts predictably across environmental gradients and (iv) the role of consumers in influencing plant distributional limits. Existing studies demonstrate numerous examples of consumers limiting local plant abundance and distribution. We found larger effects of consumers on grassland than woodland forbs, stronger effects of herbivory in areas with high versus low disturbance, but no systematic or unambiguous differences in the impact of consumers based on plant life-history or herbivore feeding mode. However, our ability to evaluate these and other patterns is limited by the small (but growing) number of studies in this area. As an impetus for further study, we review strengths and challenges of population-level studies, such as interpreting net impacts of consumers in the presence of density dependence and seed bank dynamics. PMID:17002942

  18. Acceleration and deceleration phase nonlinear Rayleigh-Taylor growth at spherical interfaces

    SciTech Connect

    Clark, D S; Tabak, M

    2005-04-08

    The Layzer model for the nonlinear evolution of bubbles in the Rayleigh-Taylor instability has recently been generalized to the case of spherically imploding interfaces [D. S. Clark and M. Tabak, to appear, PRE (2005).]. The spherical case is more relevant to, e.g., inertial confinement fusion or various astrophysical phenomena when the convergence is strong or the perturbation wavelength is comparable to the interface curvature. Here, the model is further extended to the case of bubble growth during the deceleration (stagnation) phase of a spherical implosion and to the growth of spikes during both the acceleration and deceleration phases. Differences in the nonlinear growth rates for both bubbles and spikes are found when compared with planar results. The model predictions are verified by comparison with numerical hydrodynamics simulations.

  19. [Global population growth and the environment: a review of the issues].

    PubMed

    Legrand, T

    1998-01-01

    "This article reviews the hypothesized effects of global population growth on the environment and considers their policy implications." The focus is on the ethical considerations of population growth; the complexity of environmental processes; the concentration of adverse effects of population growth on renewable, rather than nonrenewable, resources; the need for noncoercive efforts to slow population growth; and the impact of difficult-to-resolve political and administrative problems. (EXCERPT)

  20. [Global population growth and the environment: a review of the issues].

    PubMed

    Legrand, T

    1998-01-01

    "This article reviews the hypothesized effects of global population growth on the environment and considers their policy implications." The focus is on the ethical considerations of population growth; the complexity of environmental processes; the concentration of adverse effects of population growth on renewable, rather than nonrenewable, resources; the need for noncoercive efforts to slow population growth; and the impact of difficult-to-resolve political and administrative problems. (EXCERPT) PMID:12295168

  1. Accelerate!

    PubMed

    Kotter, John P

    2012-11-01

    The old ways of setting and implementing strategy are failing us, writes the author of Leading Change, in part because we can no longer keep up with the pace of change. Organizational leaders are torn between trying to stay ahead of increasingly fierce competition and needing to deliver this year's results. Although traditional hierarchies and managerial processes--the components of a company's "operating system"--can meet the daily demands of running an enterprise, they are rarely equipped to identify important hazards quickly, formulate creative strategic initiatives nimbly, and implement them speedily. The solution Kotter offers is a second system--an agile, networklike structure--that operates in concert with the first to create a dual operating system. In such a system the hierarchy can hand off the pursuit of big strategic initiatives to the strategy network, freeing itself to focus on incremental changes to improve efficiency. The network is populated by employees from all levels of the organization, giving it organizational knowledge, relationships, credibility, and influence. It can Liberate information from silos with ease. It has a dynamic structure free of bureaucratic layers, permitting a level of individualism, creativity, and innovation beyond the reach of any hierarchy. The network's core is a guiding coalition that represents each level and department in the hierarchy, with a broad range of skills. Its drivers are members of a "volunteer army" who are energized by and committed to the coalition's vividly formulated, high-stakes vision and strategy. Kotter has helped eight organizations, public and private, build dual operating systems over the past three years. He predicts that such systems will lead to long-term success in the 21st century--for shareholders, customers, employees, and companies themselves. PMID:23155997

  2. Accelerate!

    PubMed

    Kotter, John P

    2012-11-01

    The old ways of setting and implementing strategy are failing us, writes the author of Leading Change, in part because we can no longer keep up with the pace of change. Organizational leaders are torn between trying to stay ahead of increasingly fierce competition and needing to deliver this year's results. Although traditional hierarchies and managerial processes--the components of a company's "operating system"--can meet the daily demands of running an enterprise, they are rarely equipped to identify important hazards quickly, formulate creative strategic initiatives nimbly, and implement them speedily. The solution Kotter offers is a second system--an agile, networklike structure--that operates in concert with the first to create a dual operating system. In such a system the hierarchy can hand off the pursuit of big strategic initiatives to the strategy network, freeing itself to focus on incremental changes to improve efficiency. The network is populated by employees from all levels of the organization, giving it organizational knowledge, relationships, credibility, and influence. It can Liberate information from silos with ease. It has a dynamic structure free of bureaucratic layers, permitting a level of individualism, creativity, and innovation beyond the reach of any hierarchy. The network's core is a guiding coalition that represents each level and department in the hierarchy, with a broad range of skills. Its drivers are members of a "volunteer army" who are energized by and committed to the coalition's vividly formulated, high-stakes vision and strategy. Kotter has helped eight organizations, public and private, build dual operating systems over the past three years. He predicts that such systems will lead to long-term success in the 21st century--for shareholders, customers, employees, and companies themselves.

  3. Education and Skills for Development in South Africa: Reflections on the Accelerated and Shared Growth Initiative for South Africa

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McGrath, S.; Akoojee, Salim

    2007-01-01

    In July 2005, President Mbeki announced the launch of the Accelerated and Shared Growth Initiative for South Africa (AsgiSA), a new development strategy designed to help the South African state meet the ANC's 2004 election pledges, namely: (1) halve unemployment; (2) halve poverty; (3) accelerate employment equity; and (4) improve broad-based…

  4. Poor maternal nutrition and accelerated postnatal growth induces an accelerated aging phenotype and oxidative stress in skeletal muscle of male rats

    PubMed Central

    Fernandez-Twinn, Denise S.; Chen, Jian Hua; Hargreaves, Iain P.; Neergheen, Viruna; Aiken, Catherine E.; Ozanne, Susan E.

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT ‘Developmental programming’, which occurs as a consequence of suboptimal in utero and early environments, can be associated with metabolic dysfunction in later life, including an increased incidence of cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes, and predisposition of older men to sarcopenia. However, the molecular mechanisms underpinning these associations are poorly understood. Many conditions associated with developmental programming are also known to be associated with the aging process. We therefore utilized our well-established rat model of low birth weight and accelerated postnatal catch-up growth (termed ‘recuperated’) in this study to establish the effects of suboptimal maternal nutrition on age-associated factors in skeletal muscle. We demonstrated accelerated telomere shortening (a robust marker of cellular aging) as evidenced by a reduced frequency of long telomeres (48.5-8.6 kb) and an increased frequency of short telomeres (4.2-1.3 kb) in vastus lateralis muscle from aged recuperated offspring compared to controls. This was associated with increased protein expression of the DNA-damage-repair marker 8-oxoguanine-glycosylase (OGG1) in recuperated offspring. Recuperated animals also demonstrated an oxidative stress phenotype, with decreased citrate synthase activity, increased electron-transport-complex activities of complex I, complex II-III and complex IV (all markers of functional mitochondria), and increased xanthine oxidase (XO), p67phox and nuclear-factor kappa-light-chain-enhancer of activated B-cells (NF-κB). Recuperated offspring also demonstrated increased antioxidant defense capacity, with increased protein expression of manganese superoxide dismutase (MnSOD), copper-zinc superoxide dismutase (CuZnSOD), catalase and heme oxygenase-1 (HO1), all of which are known targets of NF-κB and can be upregulated as a consequence of oxidative stress. Recuperated offspring also had a pro-inflammatory phenotype, as evidenced by

  5. [The effect of population growth on the economic development of Japan].

    PubMed

    Yamaguchi, M

    1985-05-01

    The author reviews research supporting and opposing the Malthusian view that the effect of population growth on per capita income in Japan has been negative. Distinguishing between total population growth and the growth of the labor force, the author finds that "over the total period (1880-1970) population cum labor growth on average tended to make a positive contribution to per capita income growth." (summary in ENG)

  6. Plant growth promoting rhizobacteria and endophytes accelerate phytoremediation of metalliferous soils.

    PubMed

    Ma, Y; Prasad, M N V; Rajkumar, M; Freitas, H

    2011-01-01

    Technogenic activities (industrial-plastic, textiles, microelectronics, wood preservatives; mining-mine refuse, tailings, smelting; agrochemicals-chemical fertilizers, farm yard manure, pesticides; aerosols-pyrometallurgical and automobile exhausts; biosolids-sewage sludge, domestic waste; fly ash-coal combustion products) are the primary sources of heavy metal contamination and pollution in the environment in addition to geogenic sources. During the last two decades, bioremediation has emerged as a potential tool to clean up the metal-contaminated/polluted environment. Exclusively derived processes by plants alone (phytoremediation) are time-consuming. Further, high levels of pollutants pose toxicity to the remediating plants. This situation could be ameliorated and accelerated by exploring the partnership of plant-microbe, which would improve the plant growth by facilitating the sequestration of toxic heavy metals. Plants can bioconcentrate (phytoextraction) as well as bioimmobilize or inactivate (phytostabilization) toxic heavy metals through in situ rhizospheric processes. The mobility and bioavailability of heavy metal in the soil, particularly at the rhizosphere where root uptake or exclusion takes place, are critical factors that affect phytoextraction and phytostabilization. Developing new methods for either enhancing (phytoextraction) or reducing the bioavailability of metal contaminants in the rhizosphere (phytostabilization) as well as improving plant establishment, growth, and health could significantly speed up the process of bioremediation techniques. In this review, we have highlighted the role of plant growth promoting rhizo- and/or endophytic bacteria in accelerating phytoremediation derived benefits in extensive tables and elaborate schematic sketches.

  7. Plant growth promoting rhizobacteria and endophytes accelerate phytoremediation of metalliferous soils.

    PubMed

    Ma, Y; Prasad, M N V; Rajkumar, M; Freitas, H

    2011-01-01

    Technogenic activities (industrial-plastic, textiles, microelectronics, wood preservatives; mining-mine refuse, tailings, smelting; agrochemicals-chemical fertilizers, farm yard manure, pesticides; aerosols-pyrometallurgical and automobile exhausts; biosolids-sewage sludge, domestic waste; fly ash-coal combustion products) are the primary sources of heavy metal contamination and pollution in the environment in addition to geogenic sources. During the last two decades, bioremediation has emerged as a potential tool to clean up the metal-contaminated/polluted environment. Exclusively derived processes by plants alone (phytoremediation) are time-consuming. Further, high levels of pollutants pose toxicity to the remediating plants. This situation could be ameliorated and accelerated by exploring the partnership of plant-microbe, which would improve the plant growth by facilitating the sequestration of toxic heavy metals. Plants can bioconcentrate (phytoextraction) as well as bioimmobilize or inactivate (phytostabilization) toxic heavy metals through in situ rhizospheric processes. The mobility and bioavailability of heavy metal in the soil, particularly at the rhizosphere where root uptake or exclusion takes place, are critical factors that affect phytoextraction and phytostabilization. Developing new methods for either enhancing (phytoextraction) or reducing the bioavailability of metal contaminants in the rhizosphere (phytostabilization) as well as improving plant establishment, growth, and health could significantly speed up the process of bioremediation techniques. In this review, we have highlighted the role of plant growth promoting rhizo- and/or endophytic bacteria in accelerating phytoremediation derived benefits in extensive tables and elaborate schematic sketches. PMID:21147211

  8. A role for pectin de-methylesterification in a developmentally regulated growth acceleration in dark-grown Arabidopsis hypocotyls.

    PubMed

    Pelletier, Sandra; Van Orden, Jürgen; Wolf, Sebastian; Vissenberg, Kris; Delacourt, Julien; Ndong, Yves Assoumou; Pelloux, Jérôme; Bischoff, Volker; Urbain, Aurélie; Mouille, Grégory; Lemonnier, Gaëtan; Renou, Jean-Pierre; Höfte, Herman

    2010-11-01

    • We focused on a developmentally regulated growth acceleration in the dark-grown Arabidopsis hypocotyl to study the role of changes in cell wall metabolism in the control of cell elongation. • To this end, precise transcriptome analysis on dissected dark-grown hypocotyls, Fourier transform infrared (FT-IR) microspectroscopy and kinematic analysis were used. • Using a cellulose synthesis inhibitor, we showed that the growth acceleration marks a developmental transition during which growth becomes uncoupled from cellulose synthesis. We next investigated the cellular changes that take place during this transition. FT-IR microspectroscopy revealed significant changes in cell wall composition during, but not after, the growth acceleration. Transcriptome analysis suggested a role for cell wall remodeling, in particular pectin modification, in this growth acceleration. This was confirmed by the overexpression of a pectin methylesterase inhibitor, which caused a delay in the growth acceleration. • This study shows that the acceleration of cell elongation marks a developmental transition in dark-grown hypocotyl cells and supports a role for pectin de-methylesterification in the timing of this event.

  9. World population growth, family planning, and American foreign policy.

    PubMed

    Sharpless, J

    1995-01-01

    The US decision since the 1960s to link foreign policy with family planning and population control is noteworthy for its intention to change the demographic structure of foreign countries and the magnitude of the initiative. The current population ideologies are part of the legacy of 19th century views on science, morality, and political economy. Strong constraints were placed on US foreign policy since World War II, particularly due to presumptions about the role of developing countries in Cold War ideology. Domestic debates revolved around issues of feminism, birth control, abortion, and family political issues. Since the 1960s, environmental degradation and resource depletion were an added global dimension of US population issues. Between 1935 and 1958 birth control movements evolved from the ideologies of utopian socialists, Malthusians, women's rights activists, civil libertarians, and advocates of sexual freedom. There was a shift from acceptance of birth control to questions about the role of national government in supporting distribution of birth control. Immediately postwar the debates over birth control were outside political circles. The concept of family planning as a middle class family issue shifted the focus from freeing women from the burdens of housework to making women more efficient housewives. Family planning could not be taken as a national policy concern without justification as a major issue, a link to national security, belief in the success of intervention, and a justifiable means of inclusion in public policy. US government involvement began with agricultural education, technological assistance, and economic development that would satisfy the world's growing population. Cold War politics forced population growth as an issue to be considered within the realm of foreign policy and diplomacy. US government sponsored family planning was enthusiastic during 1967-74 but restrained during the 1980s. The 1990s has been an era of redefinition of

  10. World population growth, family planning, and American foreign policy.

    PubMed

    Sharpless, J

    1995-01-01

    The US decision since the 1960s to link foreign policy with family planning and population control is noteworthy for its intention to change the demographic structure of foreign countries and the magnitude of the initiative. The current population ideologies are part of the legacy of 19th century views on science, morality, and political economy. Strong constraints were placed on US foreign policy since World War II, particularly due to presumptions about the role of developing countries in Cold War ideology. Domestic debates revolved around issues of feminism, birth control, abortion, and family political issues. Since the 1960s, environmental degradation and resource depletion were an added global dimension of US population issues. Between 1935 and 1958 birth control movements evolved from the ideologies of utopian socialists, Malthusians, women's rights activists, civil libertarians, and advocates of sexual freedom. There was a shift from acceptance of birth control to questions about the role of national government in supporting distribution of birth control. Immediately postwar the debates over birth control were outside political circles. The concept of family planning as a middle class family issue shifted the focus from freeing women from the burdens of housework to making women more efficient housewives. Family planning could not be taken as a national policy concern without justification as a major issue, a link to national security, belief in the success of intervention, and a justifiable means of inclusion in public policy. US government involvement began with agricultural education, technological assistance, and economic development that would satisfy the world's growing population. Cold War politics forced population growth as an issue to be considered within the realm of foreign policy and diplomacy. US government sponsored family planning was enthusiastic during 1967-74 but restrained during the 1980s. The 1990s has been an era of redefinition of

  11. Development Planning and Population Growth and Redistribution in the Republic of Iraq.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    El Attar, M. E.; Salman, A. D.

    Utilizing the 1947, 1957, and l965 census data and the 1970 preliminary population count, the relationship between population growth and redistribution and development planning in Iraq was examined. Trends in rural-urban population growth, migration, and population redistribution were examined as they pertained to the socioeconomic development…

  12. Closing the Gap between Experiment and Theory: Crystal Growth by Temperature Accelerated Dynamics

    SciTech Connect

    Montalenti, F.; Sorensen, M. R.; Voter, A. F.

    2001-09-17

    We present atomistic simulations of crystal growth where realistic experimental deposition rates are reproduced, without needing any a priori information on the relevant diffusion processes. Using the temperature accelerated dynamics method, we simulate the deposition of 4 monolayers (ML) of Ag/Ag(100) at the rate of 0.075 ML/s, thus obtaining a boost of several orders of magnitude with respect to ordinary molecular dynamics. In the temperature range analyzed (0--70 K), steering and activated mechanisms compete in determining the surface roughness.

  13. In-Situ Monitoring of Particle Growth at PEMFC Cathode under Accelerated Cycling Conditions

    SciTech Connect

    Billinge S. J.; Redmond, E.L.; Setzler, B.P.; Juhas, P.; Fullera, T.F.

    2012-05-01

    An in-situ method to measure changes in catalyst particle size at the cathode of a proton exchange membrane fuel cell is demonstrated. Synchrotron X-rays, 58 keV, were used to measure the pair distribution function on an operating fuel cell and observe the growth of catalyst particles under accelerated degradation conditions. The stability of Pt/C and PtCo/C with different initial particle sizes was monitored over 3000 potential cycles. The increase in particle size was fit to a linear trend as a function of cycles. The most stable electrocatalyst was found to be the alloyed PtCo with the larger initial particle size.

  14. Effect of the accelerating growth of communications networks on their structure.

    PubMed

    Dorogovtsev, S N; Mendes, J F

    2001-02-01

    Motivated by data on the evolution of the Internet and World Wide Web we consider scenarios of self-organization of nonlinearly growing networks into free-scale structures. We find that the accelerating growth of networks establishes their structure. For growing networks with preferential linking and increasing density of links, two scenarios are possible. In one of them, the value of the exponent gamma of the distribution of the number of incoming links is between 3/2 and 2. In the other scenario, gamma>2 and the distribution is necessarily nonstationary.

  15. Observational test of shock drift and Fermi acceleration on a seed particle population upstream of earth's bow shock

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Anagnostopoulos, G. C.; Sarris, E. T.; Krimigis, S. M.

    1988-01-01

    The efficiency of proposed shock acceleration mechanisms as they operate at the bow shock in the presence of a seed energetic particle population was examined using data from simultaneous observations of energetic solar-origin protons, carried out by the IMP 7 and 8 spacecraft in the vicinity of the quasi-parallel (dawn) and quasi-perpendicular (dusk) regions of the earth's bow shock, respectively. The results of observations (which include acceleration effects in the intensities of the energetic protons with energies as high as 4 MeV observed at the vicinity of the dusk bow shock, but no evidence for any particle acceleration at the energy equal to or above 50 keV at the dawn side of the bow shock) indicate that the acceleration of a seed particle population occurs only at the quasi-perpendicular bow shock through shock drift acceleration and that the major source of observed upstream ion populations is the leakage of magnetospheric ions of energies not less than 50 keV, rather than in situ acceleration.

  16. Acceleration and localization of subcritical crack growth in a natural composite material

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lennartz-Sassinek, S.; Main, I. G.; Zaiser, M.; Graham, C. C.

    2014-11-01

    Catastrophic failure of natural and engineered materials is often preceded by an acceleration and localization of damage that can be observed indirectly from acoustic emissions (AE) generated by the nucleation and growth of microcracks. In this paper we present a detailed investigation of the statistical properties and spatiotemporal characteristics of AE signals generated during triaxial compression of a sandstone sample. We demonstrate that the AE event amplitudes and interevent times are characterized by scaling distributions with shapes that remain invariant during most of the loading sequence. Localization of the AE activity on an incipient fault plane is associated with growth in AE rate in the form of a time-reversed Omori law with an exponent near 1. The experimental findings are interpreted using a model that assumes scale-invariant growth of the dominating crack or fault zone, consistent with the Dugdale-Barenblatt "process zone" model. We determine formal relationships between fault size, fault growth rate, and AE event rate, which are found to be consistent with the experimental observations. From these relations, we conclude that relatively slow growth of a subcritical fault may be associated with a significantly more rapid increase of the AE rate and that monitoring AE rate may therefore provide more reliable predictors of incipient failure than direct monitoring of the growing fault.

  17. Acceleration and localization of subcritical crack growth in a natural composite material.

    PubMed

    Lennartz-Sassinek, S; Main, I G; Zaiser, M; Graham, C C

    2014-11-01

    Catastrophic failure of natural and engineered materials is often preceded by an acceleration and localization of damage that can be observed indirectly from acoustic emissions (AE) generated by the nucleation and growth of microcracks. In this paper we present a detailed investigation of the statistical properties and spatiotemporal characteristics of AE signals generated during triaxial compression of a sandstone sample. We demonstrate that the AE event amplitudes and interevent times are characterized by scaling distributions with shapes that remain invariant during most of the loading sequence. Localization of the AE activity on an incipient fault plane is associated with growth in AE rate in the form of a time-reversed Omori law with an exponent near 1. The experimental findings are interpreted using a model that assumes scale-invariant growth of the dominating crack or fault zone, consistent with the Dugdale-Barenblatt "process zone" model. We determine formal relationships between fault size, fault growth rate, and AE event rate, which are found to be consistent with the experimental observations. From these relations, we conclude that relatively slow growth of a subcritical fault may be associated with a significantly more rapid increase of the AE rate and that monitoring AE rate may therefore provide more reliable predictors of incipient failure than direct monitoring of the growing fault.

  18. Density but not climate affects the population growth rate of guanacos ( Lama guanicoe) (Artiodactyla, Camelidae)

    PubMed Central

    Zubillaga, María; Skewes, Oscar; Soto, Nicolás; Rabinovich, Jorge E

    2014-01-01

    We analyzed the effects of population density and climatic variables on the rate of population growth in the guanaco ( Lama guanicoe), a wild camelid species in South America. We used a time series of 36 years (1977-2012) of population sampling in Tierra del Fuego, Chile. Individuals were grouped in three age-classes: newborns, juveniles, and adults; for each year a female population transition matrix was constructed, and the population growth rate (λ) was estimated for each year as the matrix highest positive eigenvalue. We applied a regression analysis with finite population growth rate (λ) as dependent variable, and total guanaco population, sheep population, annual mean precipitation, and winter mean temperature as independent variables, with and without time lags. The effect of guanaco population size was statistically significant, but the effects of the sheep population and the climatic variables on guanaco population growth rate were not statistically significant. PMID:25187878

  19. Pitcairn Island: fertility and population growth, 1790-1856.

    PubMed

    Refshauge, W F; Walsh, R J

    1981-01-01

    The hybrid English-Tahitian community which lived on Pitcairn Island between 1790 and 1856 exhibited a high population growth (3% overall). Unlike some other isolated groups, they did not live long lives (expectation of life at birth was 50.4 years overall for both sexes combined), but infant mortality, at 5.5% of births is lower than might have been expected. The level of marital fertility on Pitcairn was extremely high, higher even than for the Hutterites. Although births outside marriage were uncommon, brides were frequently pregnant at marriage. Age at first marriage changed markedly in response to changes in the community. There is some evidence that premarital sex became more frequent, possibly as an adjustment to Tahitian behavioural norms within the community's English religious ethic.

  20. Global warming, population growth, and natural resources for food production.

    PubMed

    Pimentel, D

    1991-01-01

    Destruction of forests and the considerable burning of fossil fuels is directly causing the level of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases including methane, carbon monoxide, and nitrous oxide in the atmosphere to rise. Population growth in the US and the world indirectly contributes to this global warming. This has led the majority of scientists interested in weather and climate to predict that the planet's temperature will increase from 1.5 to 4.5 degrees Celsius by 2050. These forecasted climactic changes will most likely strongly affect crop production. Specifically these scientists expect the potential changes in temperature, moisture, carbon dioxide, and pests to decrease food production in North America. The degree of changes hinges on each crop and its environmental needs. If farmers begin using improved agricultural technology, the fall in crop yields can be somewhat counterbalanced. Even without global warming, however, agriculture in North America must embrace sensible ecological resource management practices such as conserving soil, water, energy, and biological resources. These sustainable agricultural practices would serve agriculture, farmers, the environment, and society. Agriculturalists, farmers, and society are already interested in sustainable agriculture. Still scientists must conduct more research on the multiple effects of potential global climate change on many different crops under various environmental conditions and on new technologies that farmers might use in agricultural production. We must cut down our consumption of fossil fuel, reduce deforestation, erase poverty, and protect our soil, water, and biological resources. The most important action we need to take, however, is to check population growth. PMID:12344889

  1. Food shortages in sub-Saharan Africa and population growth.

    PubMed

    Munisi, S E

    1982-12-01

    Food problems faced by sub-Saharan African nations center around the widening gap between food needs and availablity. Food shortages are suggested to originate from poor distribution and as a result of natural disasters; not as a consequence of population growth. Imperialism, colonialism, and neocolonial exploitation has encouraged African economic and cultural backwardness; a situation in which high population growth can have grave consequences. Fertility control is promoted by industrialized governments as a means of solving socioeconomic problems. However, fertility control may not be justified in many African nations which experience high infant mortality and labor intensive agriculture. Although the number of people who can be fed in any circumstance is ultimately finite, Africa's situation could be improved. If presently uninhabitable land was made suitable for settlement, land shortage from overpopulation would not be problematic for a long time. Modernization of agricultural practices could have a substantial impact of food production. At present, innovations are largely associated with the production of export crops which has often necessitated food imports. Food aid for relief in emergencies or for support of regions with chronic shortages is appropriate and beneficial, however, in some cases food aid can be detrimental, e.g., by lowering food prices thus burdening small farmers. Food aid tends to create dependency, not self-sufficiency. Malnutrition and hunger are symptoms of underdevelopment. At the policy level, a food and nutrition strategy should include rural development designed to improve income redistribution, agricultural modernization, and measures to influence the production of various foods to ensure a balanced diet, and nutrition and health intervention programs for vulnerable groups. In addition to overall agricultural development, 2 general recommendations are offered: increased production of staple food stuffs and a concentrated effort to

  2. TP508 accelerates fracture repair by promoting cell growth over cell death

    SciTech Connect

    Li Xinmin; Wang Hali; Touma, Edward; Qi Yuchen; Rousseau, Emma; Quigg, Richard J.; Ryaby, James T.

    2007-12-07

    TP508 is a synthetic 23-amino acid peptide representing a receptor-binding domain of human thrombin. We have previously shown that a single injection of TP508 accelerates fracture healing in a rat femoral fracture model. To understand how TP508 acts at the protein level during fracture healing, we compared the translational profiles between saline-control and fractured femur at six time points after TP508 treatment using the second generation of BD Clontech{sup TM} Antibody Microarray. Here, we demonstrate that TP508 accelerates fracture healing by modulating expression levels of proteins primarily involved in the functional categories of cell cycle, cellular growth and proliferation, and cell death. The majority of those proteins are physically interrelated and functionally overlapped. The action of those proteins is highlighted by a central theme of promoting cell growth via balance of cell survival over cell death signals. This appears to occur through the stimulation of several bone healing pathways including cell cycle-G1/S checkpoint regulation, apoptosis, JAK/STAT, NF-{kappa}B, PDGF, PI3K/AKT, PTEN, and ERK/MAPK.

  3. The trade-off between maturation and growth during accelerated development in frogs.

    PubMed

    Mueller, Casey A; Augustine, Starrlight; Kooijman, Sebastiaan A L M; Kearney, Michael R; Seymour, Roger S

    2012-09-01

    Developmental energetics are crucial to a species' life history and ecology but are poorly understood from a mechanistic perspective. Traditional energy and mass budgeting does not distinguish between costs of growth and maturation, making it difficult to account for accelerated development. We apply a metabolic theory that uniquely considers maturation costs (Dynamic Energy Budget theory, DEB) to interpret empirical data on the energetics of accelerated development in amphibians. We measured energy use until metamorphosis in two related frogs, Crinia georgiana and Pseudophryne bibronii. Mass and energy content of fresh ova were comparable between the species. However, development to metamorphosis was 1.7 times faster in C. georgiana while P. bibronii produced nine times the dry biomass at metamorphosis and had lower mass-specific oxygen requirements. DEB theory explained these patterns through differences in ontogenetic energy allocation to maturation. P. bibronii partitioned energy in the same (constant) way throughout development whereas C. georgiana increased the fraction of energy allocated to maturation over growth between hatching and the onset of feeding. DEB parameter estimation for additional, direct-developing taxa suggests that a change in energy allocation during development may result from a selective pressure to increase development rate, and not as a result of development mode.

  4. Grassland ecology and population growth: striking a balance.

    PubMed

    Hou, D; Duan, C; Zhang, D

    2000-06-01

    Degradation of forest and grasslands in western China attributes to the soil erosion and desertification in the country. Researchers have established that the primary reason for the degradation of grasslands is overgrazing, which in turn is caused by a number of factors, including over-population and over-reliance on animal husbandry. In addition, the existing administrative system has also proved ineffective in ensuring sustainable development. On contrary, many local governments even encourage exploitative development of grassland; thus, localities opened up grassland for growing crops in an effort to increase income. According to estimates, degraded grassland accounts for more than one-third of utilizable acreage and another one-third suffers from a profusion of rats and pests. To redress the situation, central government should implement strategies in achieving sustainable development, such as providing banking and tax incentives for the development of the secondary and tertiary industries, and supporting education and training of youths from herding areas. Moreover, government should increase spending on infrastructural construction and ecological preservation. Finally, the family planning program needs to be enforced to control population growth and improve the quality of peoples¿ lives. PMID:12322589

  5. An assessment of bird habitat quality using population growth rates

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Knutson, M.G.; Powell, L.A.; Hines, R.K.; Friberg, M.A.; Niemi, G.J.

    2006-01-01

    Survival and reproduction directly affect population growth rate (lambda) making lambda a fundamental parameter for assessing habitat quality. We used field data, literature review, and a computer simulation to predict annual productivity and lambda for several species of landbirds breeding in floodplain and upland forests in the Midwestern United States. We monitored 1735 nests of 27 species; 760 nests were in the uplands and 975 were in the floodplain. Each type of forest habitat (upland and floodplain) was a source habitat for some species. Despite a relatively low proportion of regional forest cover, the majority of species had stable or increasing populations in all or some habitats, including six species of conservation concern. In our search for a simple analog for lambda, we found that only adult apparent survival, juvenile survival, and annual productivity were correlated with lambda; daily nest survival and relative abundance estimated from point counts were not. Survival and annual productivity are among the most costly demographic parameters to measure and there does not seem to be a low-cost alternative. In addition, our literature search revealed that the demographic parameters needed to model annual productivity and lambda were unavailable for several species. More collective effort across North America is needed to fill the gaps in our knowledge of demographic parameters necessary to model both annual productivity and lambda. Managers can use habitat-specific predictions of annual productivity to compare habitat quality among species and habitats for purposes of evaluating management plans.

  6. Tree growth acceleration and expansion of alpine forests: The synergistic effect of atmospheric and edaphic change.

    PubMed

    Silva, Lucas C R; Sun, Geng; Zhu-Barker, Xia; Liang, Qianlong; Wu, Ning; Horwath, William R

    2016-08-01

    Many forest ecosystems have experienced recent declines in productivity; however, in some alpine regions, tree growth and forest expansion are increasing at marked rates. Dendrochronological analyses at the upper limit of alpine forests in the Tibetan Plateau show a steady increase in tree growth since the early 1900s, which intensified during the 1930s and 1960s, and have reached unprecedented levels since 1760. This recent growth acceleration was observed in small/young and large/old trees and coincided with the establishment of trees outside the forest range, reflecting a connection between the physiological performance of dominant species and shifts in forest distribution. Measurements of stable isotopes (carbon, oxygen, and nitrogen) in tree rings indicate that tree growth has been stimulated by the synergistic effect of rising atmospheric CO2 and a warming-induced increase in water and nutrient availability from thawing permafrost. These findings illustrate the importance of considering soil-plant-atmosphere interactions to understand current and anticipate future changes in productivity and distribution of forest ecosystems. PMID:27652334

  7. Tree growth acceleration and expansion of alpine forests: The synergistic effect of atmospheric and edaphic change.

    PubMed

    Silva, Lucas C R; Sun, Geng; Zhu-Barker, Xia; Liang, Qianlong; Wu, Ning; Horwath, William R

    2016-08-01

    Many forest ecosystems have experienced recent declines in productivity; however, in some alpine regions, tree growth and forest expansion are increasing at marked rates. Dendrochronological analyses at the upper limit of alpine forests in the Tibetan Plateau show a steady increase in tree growth since the early 1900s, which intensified during the 1930s and 1960s, and have reached unprecedented levels since 1760. This recent growth acceleration was observed in small/young and large/old trees and coincided with the establishment of trees outside the forest range, reflecting a connection between the physiological performance of dominant species and shifts in forest distribution. Measurements of stable isotopes (carbon, oxygen, and nitrogen) in tree rings indicate that tree growth has been stimulated by the synergistic effect of rising atmospheric CO2 and a warming-induced increase in water and nutrient availability from thawing permafrost. These findings illustrate the importance of considering soil-plant-atmosphere interactions to understand current and anticipate future changes in productivity and distribution of forest ecosystems.

  8. Tree growth acceleration and expansion of alpine forests: The synergistic effect of atmospheric and edaphic change

    PubMed Central

    Silva, Lucas C. R.; Sun, Geng; Zhu-Barker, Xia; Liang, Qianlong; Wu, Ning; Horwath, William R.

    2016-01-01

    Many forest ecosystems have experienced recent declines in productivity; however, in some alpine regions, tree growth and forest expansion are increasing at marked rates. Dendrochronological analyses at the upper limit of alpine forests in the Tibetan Plateau show a steady increase in tree growth since the early 1900s, which intensified during the 1930s and 1960s, and have reached unprecedented levels since 1760. This recent growth acceleration was observed in small/young and large/old trees and coincided with the establishment of trees outside the forest range, reflecting a connection between the physiological performance of dominant species and shifts in forest distribution. Measurements of stable isotopes (carbon, oxygen, and nitrogen) in tree rings indicate that tree growth has been stimulated by the synergistic effect of rising atmospheric CO2 and a warming-induced increase in water and nutrient availability from thawing permafrost. These findings illustrate the importance of considering soil-plant-atmosphere interactions to understand current and anticipate future changes in productivity and distribution of forest ecosystems.

  9. Tree growth acceleration and expansion of alpine forests: The synergistic effect of atmospheric and edaphic change

    PubMed Central

    Silva, Lucas C. R.; Sun, Geng; Zhu-Barker, Xia; Liang, Qianlong; Wu, Ning; Horwath, William R.

    2016-01-01

    Many forest ecosystems have experienced recent declines in productivity; however, in some alpine regions, tree growth and forest expansion are increasing at marked rates. Dendrochronological analyses at the upper limit of alpine forests in the Tibetan Plateau show a steady increase in tree growth since the early 1900s, which intensified during the 1930s and 1960s, and have reached unprecedented levels since 1760. This recent growth acceleration was observed in small/young and large/old trees and coincided with the establishment of trees outside the forest range, reflecting a connection between the physiological performance of dominant species and shifts in forest distribution. Measurements of stable isotopes (carbon, oxygen, and nitrogen) in tree rings indicate that tree growth has been stimulated by the synergistic effect of rising atmospheric CO2 and a warming-induced increase in water and nutrient availability from thawing permafrost. These findings illustrate the importance of considering soil-plant-atmosphere interactions to understand current and anticipate future changes in productivity and distribution of forest ecosystems. PMID:27652334

  10. Population growth and a sustainable environment. The Machakos story.

    PubMed

    Mortimore, M; Tiffen, M

    1994-10-01

    The view is taken that population density in the Machakos District (boundaries prior to 1992) of Kenya influenced both environmental conservation and productivity through adaptation of new technologies. Changes in resource management in Machakos District are identified as a shift to cash crop production, experimentation with staple food options, faster tillage, use of fertilizers for enhancing soil fertility, and livestock and tree cultivation. These agricultural changes occurred due to subdivision of landholdings among sons, private appropriation of scarce grazing land, and land scarcity. Intensive practices such as intensive livestock feeding systems and the permanent manuring of fields increased the efficiency of nutrient cycling through plants, animals, and soils. The Akamba custom gave land rights to those who tilled the soil first. Formal land registration occurred after 1968 and favored owners and investors. Small farm investment was made possible through work off-farm and remittances. The value of output per square kilometer at constant prices increased during 1930-87. Cultivated land area also increased during this period, but mostly on poorer quality land. Agricultural changes were enhanced by social and institutional factors such as small family units and greater partnerships between husband and wife. Families pooled resources through collectives. Women played leadership roles. Competing interest groups and organizations have evolved and enabled people to articulate their needs and obtain access to resources at all levels. These institutions increased in strength over time and with increased density. The cost of service provision decreased with greater population numbers. Development of roads and schools facilitated formal education. Population density, market growth, and a generally supportive economic environment are viewed as the factors responsible for changes in Machakos District. Technological change is viewed as an endogenous process of adaptation

  11. Population growth and a sustainable environment. The Machakos story.

    PubMed

    Mortimore, M; Tiffen, M

    1994-10-01

    The view is taken that population density in the Machakos District (boundaries prior to 1992) of Kenya influenced both environmental conservation and productivity through adaptation of new technologies. Changes in resource management in Machakos District are identified as a shift to cash crop production, experimentation with staple food options, faster tillage, use of fertilizers for enhancing soil fertility, and livestock and tree cultivation. These agricultural changes occurred due to subdivision of landholdings among sons, private appropriation of scarce grazing land, and land scarcity. Intensive practices such as intensive livestock feeding systems and the permanent manuring of fields increased the efficiency of nutrient cycling through plants, animals, and soils. The Akamba custom gave land rights to those who tilled the soil first. Formal land registration occurred after 1968 and favored owners and investors. Small farm investment was made possible through work off-farm and remittances. The value of output per square kilometer at constant prices increased during 1930-87. Cultivated land area also increased during this period, but mostly on poorer quality land. Agricultural changes were enhanced by social and institutional factors such as small family units and greater partnerships between husband and wife. Families pooled resources through collectives. Women played leadership roles. Competing interest groups and organizations have evolved and enabled people to articulate their needs and obtain access to resources at all levels. These institutions increased in strength over time and with increased density. The cost of service provision decreased with greater population numbers. Development of roads and schools facilitated formal education. Population density, market growth, and a generally supportive economic environment are viewed as the factors responsible for changes in Machakos District. Technological change is viewed as an endogenous process of adaptation

  12. Fracture and Growth Are Competing Forces Determining the Fate of Conformers in Tau Fibril Populations*

    PubMed Central

    Meyer, Virginia; Holden, Michael R.; Weismiller, Hilary A.; Eaton, Gareth R.; Eaton, Sandra S.; Margittai, Martin

    2016-01-01

    Tau fibrils are pathological aggregates that can transfer between neurons and then recruit soluble Tau monomers by template-assisted conversion. The propagation of different fibril polymorphs is thought to be a contributing factor to phenotypic diversity in Alzheimer disease and other Tauopathies. We found that a homogeneous population of Tau fibrils composed of the truncated version K18 (residues 244–372) gradually converted to a new set of fibril conformers when subjected to multiple cycles of seeding and growth. Using double electron-electron resonance (DEER) spectroscopy, we observed that the distances between spin labels at positions 311 and 328 in the fibril core progressively decreased. The findings were corroborated by changes in turbidity, morphology, and protease sensitivity. Fibrils that were initially formed under stirring conditions exhibited an increased fragility compared with fibrils formed quiescently after multiple cycles of seeding. The quiescently formed fibrils were marked by accelerated growth. The difference in fragility and growth between the different conformers explains how the change in incubation condition could lead to the amplification of a minor subpopulation of fibrils. Under quiescent conditions where fibril breakage is minimal, faster growing fibrils have a selective advantage. The findings are of general importance as they suggest that changes in selective pressures during fibril propagation in the human brain could result in the emergence of new fibril conformers with varied clinicopathological consequences. PMID:27080260

  13. Population.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    International Planned Parenthood Federation, London (England).

    In an effort to help meet the growing interest and concern about the problems created by the rapid growth of population, The International Planned Parenthood Federation has prepared this booklet with the aim of assisting the study of the history and future trends of population growth and its impact on individual and family welfare, national,…

  14. Functionality, growth and accelerated aging of tissue engineered living autologous vascular grafts.

    PubMed

    Kelm, Jens M; Emmert, Maximilian Y; Zürcher, Armin; Schmidt, Dörthe; Begus Nahrmann, Yvonne; Rudolph, Karl L; Weber, Benedikt; Brokopp, Chad E; Frauenfelder, Thomas; Leschka, Sebastian; Odermatt, Bernhard; Jenni, Rolf; Falk, Volkmar; Zünd, Gregor; Hoerstrup, Simon P

    2012-11-01

    Living autologous tissue engineered vascular-grafts (TEVGs) with growth-capacity may overcome the limitations of contemporary artificial-prostheses. However, the multi-step in vitro production of TEVGs requires extensive ex vivo cell-manipulations with unknown effects on functionality and quality of TEVGs due to an accelerated biological age of the cells. Here, the impact of biological cell-age and tissue-remodeling capacity of TEVGs in relation to their clinical long-term functionality are investigated. TEVGs were implanted as pulmonary-artery (PA) replacements in juvenile sheep and followed for up to 240 weeks (∼4.5years). Telomere length and telomerase activity were compared amongst TEVGs and adjacent native tissue. Telomerase-activity of in vitro expanded autologous vascular-cells prior to seeding was <5% as compared to a leukemic cell line, indicating biological-aging associated with decreasing telomere-length with each cellular-doubling. Up to 100 weeks, the cells in the TEVGs had consistently shorter telomeres compared to the native counterpart, whereas no significant differences were detectable at 240 weeks. Computed tomography (CT) analysis demonstrated physiological wall-pressures, shear-stresses, and flow-pattern comparable to the native PA. There were no signs of degeneration detectable and continuous native-analogous growth was confirmed by vessel-volumetry. TEVGs exhibit a higher biological age compared to their native counterparts. However, despite of this tissue engineering technology related accelerated biological-aging, growth-capacity and long-term functionality was not compromised. To the contrary, extensive in-vivo remodeling processes with substantial endogenous cellular turnover appears to result in "TEVG rejuvenation" and excellent clinical performance. As these large-animal results can be extrapolated to approximately 20 human years, this study suggests long-term clinical-safety of cardiovascular in vitro tissue engineering and may

  15. Population. Headline Series.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Oppenheimer, Valerie K.

    Useful as background reading or secondary classroom material, this pamphlet reviews several dimensions of world population growth and control. The first of seven chapters, World Population Growth: Past, Present and Future, discusses some of the reasons for the greatly accelerated growth since 1950, and points out that even significantly rapid…

  16. Population Growth in the 1990s: Patterns within the United States.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Perry, Marc

    2002-01-01

    Examines population growth during the 1990s for a variety of geographic levels including regions, divisions, states, metropolitan areas, counties, and large cities. Compares growth rates for the 1990s with earlier decades to provide an historical context for present-day trends in population growth and decline. Discusses how differential population…

  17. THE INFLUENCE OF MODEL TIME STEP ON THE RELATIVE SENSITIVITY OF POPULATION GROWTH TO SURVIVAL, GROWTH AND REPRODUCTION

    EPA Science Inventory

    Matrix population models are often used to extrapolate from life stage-specific stressor effects on survival and reproduction to population-level effects. Demographic elasticity analysis of a matrix model allows an evaluation of the relative sensitivity of population growth rate ...

  18. Carcinogenic Parasite Secretes Growth Factor That Accelerates Wound Healing and Potentially Promotes Neoplasia.

    PubMed

    Smout, Michael J; Sotillo, Javier; Laha, Thewarach; Papatpremsiri, Atiroch; Rinaldi, Gabriel; Pimenta, Rafael N; Chan, Lai Yue; Johnson, Michael S; Turnbull, Lynne; Whitchurch, Cynthia B; Giacomin, Paul R; Moran, Corey S; Golledge, Jonathan; Daly, Norelle; Sripa, Banchob; Mulvenna, Jason P; Brindley, Paul J; Loukas, Alex

    2015-10-01

    Infection with the human liver fluke Opisthorchis viverrini induces cancer of the bile ducts, cholangiocarcinoma (CCA). Injury from feeding activities of this parasite within the human biliary tree causes extensive lesions, wounds that undergo protracted cycles of healing, and re-injury over years of chronic infection. We show that O. viverrini secreted proteins accelerated wound resolution in human cholangiocytes, an outcome that was compromised following silencing of expression of the fluke-derived gene encoding the granulin-like growth factor, Ov-GRN-1. Recombinant Ov-GRN-1 induced angiogenesis and accelerated mouse wound healing. Ov-GRN-1 was internalized by human cholangiocytes and induced gene and protein expression changes associated with wound healing and cancer pathways. Given the notable but seemingly paradoxical properties of liver fluke granulin in promoting not only wound healing but also a carcinogenic microenvironment, Ov-GRN-1 likely holds marked potential as a therapeutic wound-healing agent and as a vaccine against an infection-induced cancer of major public health significance in the developing world. PMID:26485648

  19. Recombinant Human Epidermal Growth Factor Accelerates Recovery of Mouse Small Intestinal Mucosa After Radiation Damage

    SciTech Connect

    Lee, Kang Kyoo; Jo, Hyang Jeong; Hong, Joon Pio; Lee, Sang-wook Sohn, Jung Sook; Moon, Soo Young; Yang, Sei Hoon; Shim, Hyeok; Lee, Sang Ho; Ryu, Seung-Hee; Moon, Sun Rock

    2008-07-15

    Purpose: To determine whether systemically administered recombinant human epidermal growth factor (rhEGF) accelerates the recovery of mouse small intestinal mucosa after irradiation. Methods and Materials: A mouse mucosal damage model was established by administering radiation to male BALB/c mice with a single dose of 15 Gy applied to the abdomen. After irradiation, rhEGF was administered subcutaneously at various doses (0.04, 0.2, 1.0, and 5.0 mg/kg/day) eight times at 2- to 3-day intervals. The evaluation methods included histologic changes of small intestinal mucosa, change in body weight, frequency of diarrhea, and survival rate. Results: The recovery of small intestinal mucosa after irradiation was significantly improved in the mice treated with a high dose of rhEGF. In the mice that underwent irradiation without rhEGF treatment, intestinal mucosal ulceration, mucosal layer damage, and severe inflammation occurred. The regeneration of villi was noticeable in mice treated with more than 0.2 mg/kg rhEGF, and the villi recovered fully in mice given more than 1 mg/kg rhEGF. The frequency of diarrhea persisting for more than 3 days was significantly greater in the radiation control group than in the rhEGF-treated groups. Conclusions: Systemic administration of rhEGF accelerates recovery from mucosal damage induced by irradiation. We suggest that rhEGF treatment shows promise for the reduction of small intestinal damage after irradiation.

  20. Carcinogenic Parasite Secretes Growth Factor That Accelerates Wound Healing and Potentially Promotes Neoplasia

    PubMed Central

    Smout, Michael J.; Sotillo, Javier; Laha, Thewarach; Papatpremsiri, Atiroch; Rinaldi, Gabriel; Pimenta, Rafael N.; Chan, Lai Yue; Johnson, Michael S.; Turnbull, Lynne; Whitchurch, Cynthia B.; Giacomin, Paul R.; Moran, Corey S.; Golledge, Jonathan; Daly, Norelle; Sripa, Banchob; Mulvenna, Jason P.

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Infection with the human liver fluke Opisthorchis viverrini induces cancer of the bile ducts, cholangiocarcinoma (CCA). Injury from feeding activities of this parasite within the human biliary tree causes extensive lesions, wounds that undergo protracted cycles of healing, and re-injury over years of chronic infection. We show that O. viverrini secreted proteins accelerated wound resolution in human cholangiocytes, an outcome that was compromised following silencing of expression of the fluke-derived gene encoding the granulin-like growth factor, Ov-GRN-1. Recombinant Ov-GRN-1 induced angiogenesis and accelerated mouse wound healing. Ov-GRN-1 was internalized by human cholangiocytes and induced gene and protein expression changes associated with wound healing and cancer pathways. Given the notable but seemingly paradoxical properties of liver fluke granulin in promoting not only wound healing but also a carcinogenic microenvironment, Ov-GRN-1 likely holds marked potential as a therapeutic wound-healing agent and as a vaccine against an infection-induced cancer of major public health significance in the developing world. PMID:26485648

  1. TUSC3 Loss Alters the ER Stress Response and Accelerates Prostate Cancer Growth in vivo

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Horak, Peter; Tomasich, Erwin; Vaňhara, Petr; Kratochvílová, Kateřina; Anees, Mariam; Marhold, Maximilian; Lemberger, Christof E.; Gerschpacher, Marion; Horvat, Reinhard; Sibilia, Maria; Pils, Dietmar; Krainer, Michael

    2014-01-01

    Prostate cancer is the most prevalent cancer in males in developed countries. Tumor suppressor candidate 3 (TUSC3) has been identified as a putative tumor suppressor gene in prostate cancer, though its function has not been characterized. TUSC3 shares homologies with the yeast oligosaccharyltransferase (OST) complex subunit Ost3p, suggesting a role in protein glycosylation. We provide evidence that TUSC3 is part of the OST complex and affects N-linked glycosylation in mammalian cells. Loss of TUSC3 expression in DU145 and PC3 prostate cancer cell lines leads to increased proliferation, migration and invasion as well as accelerated xenograft growth in a PTEN negative background. TUSC3 downregulation also affects endoplasmic reticulum (ER) structure and stress response, which results in increased Akt signaling. Together, our findings provide first mechanistic insight in TUSC3 function in prostate carcinogenesis in general and N-glycosylation in particular.

  2. The Impact of Variable Accelerations on Crystal Growth onboard Spacecraft by the Floating Zone Method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feonychev, A. I.; Kalachinskaya, I. S.

    2001-07-01

    The numerical investigation of the impact of time-dependent accelerations (vibrations) on the flow and heat and mass transfer in the melt is carried out for the case of modeling the crystal growth by the floating zone method under conditions of microgravity that exist onboard spacecraft. The effects of the Archimedean buoyancy force and of vibrations of the free surface of fluid are considered separately. When solving the problem of the effect of the vibrations of the free surface of fluid, the previously obtained data were used. It is shown that vibrations of the free surface have a much stronger effect on the processes under consideration than the buoyancy. Some problems that are related to the newly discovered effects are discussed. The use of vibroprotected systems and a rotating magnetic field can help solve these problems. We plan to continue our investigations in future spacecraft experiments, in particular, at the International Space Station, which is under construction at the moment.

  3. Osteogenic growth peptide accelerates bone healing during distraction osteogenesis in rabbit tibia.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Z-Y; Shao, L; Zhao, H-M; Zhong, Z-H; Liu, J-Y; Hao, C-G

    2011-01-01

    Distraction osteogenesis is a valuable treatment method that allows limb lengthening or reconstruction of large bone defects. However, its major disadvantage is the long period required for the consolidation of a distraction callus. Osteogenic growth peptide (OGP) stimulates endochondral bone formation in fracture callus, but its capacity to promote regenerate ossification during distraction osteogenesis has not been evaluated. This study investigated whether intravenously administered OGP accelerated bone healing during distraction osteogenesis in 36 male New Zealand White rabbits, randomized into two groups. The treatment group received OGP (200 ng/kg body weight) in phosphate-buffered saline (PBS), intravenously, each day; the control group received PBS alone. A 15-mm lengthening of the right lower leg was performed using the method of Ilizarov. Evidence from biomechanical, histological and radiographic evaluations demonstrated that systemic OGP treatment promoted optimal new bone formation during distraction osteogenesis in this rabbit model.

  4. [Beijing to use education, incentives to control population growth].

    PubMed

    1979-11-01

    The Beijing Municipal Family Planning Office started in 1979 a "1 child-1 family" campaign aimed at city dwellers and suburban peasants through a system of incentives for parents. The aim is to reduce China's population growth to 5/1000 by 1985. Parents who undertake to have only 1 child will receive a certificate entitling the child to preferential entrance to nursery school, kindergarten, school, factory jobs, and preferential treatment in medical care. A 1 child family will receive an annual 60 yuan bonus to be returned if the parents decide to have another child. Better housing and less taxation will also be provided for 1 child families. Childless people will receive their full wage as a pension on retirement, or will receive subsidies from their production team. A series of measures to improve maternity and child care, and sterilization operations have also been taken. An education campaign to change ideas about male superiority is presently taking place in rural areas, and young couples are recommended to move in with the bride's family.

  5. Exposure to omega-3 fatty acids at early age accelerate bone growth and improve bone quality.

    PubMed

    Koren, Netta; Simsa-Maziel, Stav; Shahar, Ron; Schwartz, Betty; Monsonego-Ornan, Efrat

    2014-06-01

    Omega-3 fatty acids (FAs) are essential nutritional components that must be obtained from foods. Increasing evidence validate that omega-3 FAs are beneficial for bone health, and several mechanisms have been suggested to mediate their effects on bone, including alterations in calcium absorption and urinary calcium loss, prostaglandin synthesis, lipid oxidation, osteoblast formation and inhibition of osteoclastogenesis. However, to date, there is scant information regarding the effect of omega-3 FAs on the developing skeleton during the rapid growth phase. In this study we aim to evaluate the effect of exposure to high levels of omega-3 FAs on bone development and quality during prenatal and early postnatal period. For this purpose, we used the fat-1 transgenic mice that have the ability to convert omega-6 to omega-3 fatty acids and the ATDC5 chondrogenic cell line as models. We show that exposure to high concentrations of omega-3 FAs at a young age accelerates bone growth through alterations of the growth plate, associated with increased chondrocyte proliferation and differentiation. We further propose that those effects are mediated by the receptors G-protein coupled receptor 120 (GPR120) and hepatic nuclear factor 4α, which are expressed by chondrocytes in culture. Additionally, using a combined study on the structural and mechanical bone parameters, we show that high omega-3 levels contribute to superior trabecular and cortical structure, as well as to stiffer bones and improved bone quality. Most interestingly, the fat-1 model allowed us to demonstrate the role of maternal high omega-3 concentration on bone growth during the gestation and postnatal period.

  6. MECHANISMS OF FLUID SHEAR-INDUCED INHIBITION OF POPULATION GROWTH IN A RED-TIDE DINOFLAGELLATE

    EPA Science Inventory

    Net population growth of some dinoflagellates is inhibited by fluid shear at shear stresses comparable with those generated during oceanic turbulence. Decreased net growth may occur through lowered cell division, increased mortality, or both. The dominant mechanism under various ...

  7. Using Spreadsheets To Model Population Growth, Competition and Predation in Nature.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Carter, Ashley J. R.

    1999-01-01

    Describes how to place mathematical equations modeling population growth into a spreadsheet that performs calculations quickly and easily. Suggests experiments that can be performed with the spreadsheets. (WRM)

  8. Is population growth a deterrent to development in the South Pacific?

    PubMed

    Ahlburg, D A

    1988-05-01

    "Some have argued that population growth deters development, while others claim that population growth either aids development or has no significant effect on development. In a sample of South Pacific nations, population growth and size were found to be unrelated to economic development, defined as GDP per capita. However, when indices of quality of life or social development such as mortality, health services and education were used, population growth and size were found to be negatively related to these indices. If these 'quality of life' indices are valued by nations, an argument may exist for policy support for family planning."

  9. Possible mechanism by which stress accelerates growth of virally derived tumors.

    PubMed Central

    Romero, L M; Raley-Susman, K M; Redish, D M; Brooke, S M; Horner, H C; Sapolsky, R M

    1992-01-01

    Stress accelerates the growth of certain types of tumors. Here we report a possible metabolic mechanism underlying this phenomenon. Some early features of transformation include increased number of glucose transporters and greatly enhanced rates of glucose uptake; this adaptation accommodates the vast energy demands needed for neoplastic growth. In contrast, glucocorticoids, a class of steroid hormones secreted during stress, inhibit glucose transport in various tissues; this is one route by which circulating glucose concentrations are raised during stress. We reasoned that should transformed cells become resistant to this inhibitory action of glucocorticoids, such cells would gain preferential access to these elevated concentrations of glucose. In agreement with this, we observed that Fujinami sarcoma virus-transformed fibroblasts became resistant to this glucocorticoid action both in vitro and in the rat. As a result, under conditions where glucocorticoids exerted catabolic effects upon nontransformed fibroblasts (inhibition of metabolism and ATP concentrations), the opposite occurred in the virally transformed cells. We observe that this glucocorticoid resistance upon transformation cannot be explained by depletion of glucocorticoid receptors; previous studies have suggested that transformation causes an alteration in trafficking of such receptors. Because of this resistance of transformed fibroblasts to the inhibitory effects of glucocorticoids upon glucose transport, glucose stores throughout the body are, in effect, preferentially shunted to such tumors during stress. Images PMID:1438318

  10. Sulforaphane promotes murine hair growth by accelerating the degradation of dihydrotestosterone.

    PubMed

    Sasaki, Mari; Shinozaki, Shohei; Shimokado, Kentaro

    2016-03-25

    Dihydrotestosterone (DHT) causes the regression of human hair follicles in the parietal scalp, leading to androgenic alopecia (AGA). Sulforaphane (SFN) increases the expression of DHT degrading enzymes, such as 3α-hydroxysteroid dehydrogenases (3α-HSDs), and, therefore, SFN treatment may improve AGA. To determine the effects of SFN on hair growth, we administered SFN (10 mg/kg BW, IP) or vehicle (DMSO) to ob/ob mice for six weeks and examined hair regeneration and the plasma levels of testosterone and DHT. We also tested the effects of SFN on the expression of two forms of 3α-HSD, aldo-keto reductase 1c21 and dehydrogenase/reductase (SDR family) member 9, both in vitro and in vivo. SNF significantly enhanced hair regeneration in ob/ob mice. The mice treated with SFN showed lower plasma levels of testosterone and DHT than those treated with vehicle. SFN increased the mRNA and protein levels of the two forms of 3α-HSD in the liver of the mice and in cultured murine hepatocyte Hepa1c1c7 cells. These results suggest that SFN treatment increases the amount of 3α-HSDs in the liver, accelerates the degradation of blood DHT, and subsequently blocks the suppression of hair growth by DHT. PMID:26923074

  11. The structural alteration of gut microbiota in low-birth-weight mice undergoing accelerated postnatal growth.

    PubMed

    Wang, Jingjing; Tang, Huang; Wang, Xiaoxin; Zhang, Xu; Zhang, Chenhong; Zhang, Menghui; Zhao, Yufeng; Zhao, Liping; Shen, Jian

    2016-01-01

    The transient disruption of gut microbiota in infancy by antibiotics causes adult adiposity in mice. Accelerated postnatal growth (A) leads to a higher risk of adult metabolic syndrome in low birth-weight (LB) humans than in normal birth-weight (NB) individuals, but the underlying mechanism remains unclear. Here, we set up an experiment using LB + A mice, NB + A mice, and control mice with NB and normal postnatal growth. At 24 weeks of age (adulthood), while NB + A animals had a normal body fat content and glucose tolerance compared with controls, LB + A mice exhibited excessive adiposity and glucose intolerance. In infancy, more fecal bacteria implicated in obesity were increased in LB + A pups than in NB + A pups, including Desulfovibrionaceae, Enterorhabdus, and Barnesiella. One bacterium from the Lactobacillus genus, which has been implicated in prevention of adult adiposity, was enhanced only in NB + A pups. Besides, LB + A pups, but not NB + A pups, showed disrupted gut microbiota fermentation activity. After weaning, the fecal microbiota composition of LB + A mice, but not that of NB + A animals, became similar to that of controls by 24 weeks. In infancy, LB + A mice have a more dysbiotic gut microbiome compared to NB + A mice, which might increase their risk of adult metabolic syndrome. PMID:27277748

  12. Sulforaphane promotes murine hair growth by accelerating the degradation of dihydrotestosterone.

    PubMed

    Sasaki, Mari; Shinozaki, Shohei; Shimokado, Kentaro

    2016-03-25

    Dihydrotestosterone (DHT) causes the regression of human hair follicles in the parietal scalp, leading to androgenic alopecia (AGA). Sulforaphane (SFN) increases the expression of DHT degrading enzymes, such as 3α-hydroxysteroid dehydrogenases (3α-HSDs), and, therefore, SFN treatment may improve AGA. To determine the effects of SFN on hair growth, we administered SFN (10 mg/kg BW, IP) or vehicle (DMSO) to ob/ob mice for six weeks and examined hair regeneration and the plasma levels of testosterone and DHT. We also tested the effects of SFN on the expression of two forms of 3α-HSD, aldo-keto reductase 1c21 and dehydrogenase/reductase (SDR family) member 9, both in vitro and in vivo. SNF significantly enhanced hair regeneration in ob/ob mice. The mice treated with SFN showed lower plasma levels of testosterone and DHT than those treated with vehicle. SFN increased the mRNA and protein levels of the two forms of 3α-HSD in the liver of the mice and in cultured murine hepatocyte Hepa1c1c7 cells. These results suggest that SFN treatment increases the amount of 3α-HSDs in the liver, accelerates the degradation of blood DHT, and subsequently blocks the suppression of hair growth by DHT.

  13. The structural alteration of gut microbiota in low-birth-weight mice undergoing accelerated postnatal growth

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Jingjing; Tang, Huang; Wang, Xiaoxin; Zhang, Xu; Zhang, Chenhong; Zhang, Menghui; Zhao, Yufeng; Zhao, Liping; Shen, Jian

    2016-01-01

    The transient disruption of gut microbiota in infancy by antibiotics causes adult adiposity in mice. Accelerated postnatal growth (A) leads to a higher risk of adult metabolic syndrome in low birth-weight (LB) humans than in normal birth-weight (NB) individuals, but the underlying mechanism remains unclear. Here, we set up an experiment using LB + A mice, NB + A mice, and control mice with NB and normal postnatal growth. At 24 weeks of age (adulthood), while NB + A animals had a normal body fat content and glucose tolerance compared with controls, LB + A mice exhibited excessive adiposity and glucose intolerance. In infancy, more fecal bacteria implicated in obesity were increased in LB + A pups than in NB + A pups, including Desulfovibrionaceae, Enterorhabdus, and Barnesiella. One bacterium from the Lactobacillus genus, which has been implicated in prevention of adult adiposity, was enhanced only in NB + A pups. Besides, LB + A pups, but not NB + A pups, showed disrupted gut microbiota fermentation activity. After weaning, the fecal microbiota composition of LB + A mice, but not that of NB + A animals, became similar to that of controls by 24 weeks. In infancy, LB + A mice have a more dysbiotic gut microbiome compared to NB + A mice, which might increase their risk of adult metabolic syndrome. PMID:27277748

  14. A critical point of male gonad development: neuroendocrine correlates of accelerated testicular growth in rats during early life.

    PubMed

    Dygalo, Nikolay N; Shemenkova, Tatjana V; Kalinina, Tatjana S; Shishkina, Galina T

    2014-01-01

    Testis growth during early life is important for future male fertility and shows acceleration during the first months of life in humans. This acceleration coincides with the peak in gonadotropic hormones in the blood, while the role of hypothalamic factors remains vague. Using neonatal rats to assess this issue, we found that day 9 of life is likely critical for testis development in rats. Before this day, testicular growth was proportional to body weight gain, but after that the testes showed accelerated growth. Hypothalamic kisspeptin and its receptor mRNA levels begin to elevate 2 days later, at day 11. A significant increase in the mRNA levels for gonadotropin-releasing hormone (GnRH) receptors in the hypothalamus between days 5 and 7 was followed by a 3-fold decrease in GnRH mRNA levels in this brain region during the next 2 days. Starting from day 9, hypothalamic GnRH mRNA levels increased significantly and positively correlated with accelerated testicular growth. Triptorelin, an agonist of GnRH, at a dose that had no effect on testicular growth during "proportional" period, increased testis weights during the period of accelerated growth. The insensitivity of testicular growth to GnRH during "proportional" period was supported by inability of a 2.5-fold siRNA knockdown of GnRH expression in the hypothalamus of the 7-day-old animals to produce any effect on their testis weights. GnRH receptor blockade with cetrorelix was also without effect on testis weights during "proportional" period but the same doses of this GnRH antagonist significantly inhibited "accelerated" testicular growth. GnRH receptor mRNA levels in the pituitary as well as plasma LH concentrations were higher during "accelerated" period of testicular growth than during "proportional" period. In general, our data defined two distinct periods in rat testicular development that are primarily characterized by different responses to GnRH signaling.

  15. Comparative Study of Population Growth and Agricultural Change: C - Case Study of India. Asian Population Studies Series No. 23.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, Bangkok (Thailand).

    This report, the third in a series of five reports of the Comparative Study of Population Growth and Agricultural Change, describes a study of the two states of India (Punjaband and Orissa) which attempted to clarify the relationship between population pressure and agricultural change through a time series analysis. This study: (1) outlines trends…

  16. The effects of invertebrate herbivores on plant population growth: a meta-regression analysis.

    PubMed

    Katz, Daniel S W

    2016-09-01

    Over the last two decades, an increasing number of studies have quantified the effects of herbivory on plant populations using stage-structured population models and integral projection models, allowing for the calculation of plant population growth rates (λ) with and without herbivory. In this paper, I assembled 29 studies and conducted a meta-regression to determine the importance of invertebrate herbivores to population growth rates (λ) while accounting for missing data. I found that invertebrate herbivory often induced important reductions in plant population growth rates (with herbivory, λ was 1.08 ± 0.36; without herbivory, λ was 1.28 ± 0.58). This relationship tended to be weaker for seed predation than for other types of herbivory, except when seed predation rates were very high. Even so, the amount by which studies reduced herbivory was a poor predictor of differences in population growth rates-which strongly cautions against using measured herbivory rates as a proxy for the impact of herbivores. Herbivory reduced plant population growth rates significantly more when potential growth rates were high, which helps to explain why there was less variation in actual population growth rates than in potential population growth rates. The synthesis of these studies also shows the need for future studies to report variance in estimates of λ and to quantify how λ varies as a function of plant density.

  17. The effects of invertebrate herbivores on plant population growth: a meta-regression analysis.

    PubMed

    Katz, Daniel S W

    2016-09-01

    Over the last two decades, an increasing number of studies have quantified the effects of herbivory on plant populations using stage-structured population models and integral projection models, allowing for the calculation of plant population growth rates (λ) with and without herbivory. In this paper, I assembled 29 studies and conducted a meta-regression to determine the importance of invertebrate herbivores to population growth rates (λ) while accounting for missing data. I found that invertebrate herbivory often induced important reductions in plant population growth rates (with herbivory, λ was 1.08 ± 0.36; without herbivory, λ was 1.28 ± 0.58). This relationship tended to be weaker for seed predation than for other types of herbivory, except when seed predation rates were very high. Even so, the amount by which studies reduced herbivory was a poor predictor of differences in population growth rates-which strongly cautions against using measured herbivory rates as a proxy for the impact of herbivores. Herbivory reduced plant population growth rates significantly more when potential growth rates were high, which helps to explain why there was less variation in actual population growth rates than in potential population growth rates. The synthesis of these studies also shows the need for future studies to report variance in estimates of λ and to quantify how λ varies as a function of plant density. PMID:27017603

  18. Accelerated growth in early life and obesity in preschool Chilean children.

    PubMed

    Kain, Juliana; Corvalán, Camila; Lera, Lydia; Galván, Marcos; Uauy, Ricardo

    2009-08-01

    In Chile, childhood obesity rates are high. The purpose of this article is to compare BMI growth characteristics of normal (N), overweight (OW), and obese (OB) 5-year olds from 0 to 5 years and explore the influence of some prenatal factors on these patterns of growth. The study was done on a retrospective cohort of 1,089 5-year olds with birth weight >2,500 g. Weight and height were obtained from records at nine occasions (0-36 months); at 52 and 60 months, we measured them. At 60 months, children were classified as N, OW, and OB. At each age, BMI and z-score of BMI (BMI Z) differences were compared among groups. The influence of birth weight, pre-pregnancy BMI, and prenatal variables (weight gain, smoking, and presence of diabetes and preeclampsia) on BMI Z differences between N and OB was also explored. Adiposity rebound (AR) was not observed for the N, although for the OW, it occurred approximately 52 months and for the OB at approximately 24 months. BMI Z differences between N and OB were significant from birth, but were greatest between 6-12 and 36-52 months. Additional adjustment by birth weight, pre-pregnancy BMI, and prenatal variables decreased the BMI Z differences for the first 24 months with virtually no effect after this age. Accelerated growth in OB children from post-transition countries occurs immediately after birth, much earlier than the AR. The influence of prenatal factors on adiposity acquisition may extend at most until 2 years of life, although BMI gains thereafter are more related to postnatal variables.

  19. Population Growth and Demographic Structure. Proceedings of the United Nations Expert Group Meeting on Population Growth and Demographic Structure (Paris, France, November 16-20, 1992).

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    United Nations, New York, NY. Dept. of Economic and Social Affairs.

    This volume contains the report and recommendations of the United Nations-sponsored meeting on population growth and demographic structure which was held in Paris, November 1992. Materials in the volume can serve as useful tools for future research on the relations between population, environment, and development and further the work of the United…

  20. Eco-evolutionary dynamics: fluctuations in population growth rate reduce effective population size in chinook salmon.

    PubMed

    Waples, Robin S; Jensen, David W; McClure, Michelle

    2010-03-01

    We empirically assess the relationship between population growth rate (lambda, a parameter central to ecology) and effective population size (N(e), a key parameter in evolutionary biology). Recent theoretical and numerical studies indicate that in semelparous species with variable age at maturity (such as Pacific salmon, many monocarpic plants, and various other species), differences in mean reproductive success among individuals reproducing in different years leads to variation in lambda, and this in turn can reduce N(e). However, this phenomenon has received little empirical evaluation. We examined time series of abundance data for 56 populations of chinook salmon (Onchorhynchus tshawytscha) from the northwestern United States and compared N(e) (calculated from demographic data) with the total number of spawners each generation (NT). Important results include: (1) The mean multigenerational ratio N(e)/N(T) was 0.64 (median = 0.67), indicating that annual variation in lambda reduces effective population size in chinook salmon by an average of approximately 35%. These reductions are independent of, and in addition to, factors that reduce N(e) within individual cohorts (uneven sex ratio and greater-than-random variance in reproductive success). (2) The coefficient of variation of lambda was the most important factor associated with reductions in N(e), explaining up to two-thirds of the variance in N(e)/N(T). (3) Within individual generations, N(e) was lower when there was a negative correlation between annual N(i) and lambda, i.e., when relatively few breeders produced relatively high numbers of offspring. Our results thus highlight an important and little-studied eco-evolutionary trade-off: density-dependent compensation has generally favorable ecological consequences (promoting stability and long-term viability) but incurs an evolutionary cost (reducing N(e) because a few individuals make a disproportionate genetic contribution). (4) For chinook salmon, N(eH) (an

  1. Estimating chronic wasting disease effects on mule deer recruitment and population growth.

    PubMed

    Dulberger, Jessie; Hobbs, N Thompson; Swanson, Heather M; Bishop, Chad J; Miller, Michael W

    2010-10-01

    Chronic wasting disease (CWD), a prion disease of mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus), accelerates mortality and in so doing has the potential to influence population dynamics. Although effects on mule deer survival are clear, how CWD affects recruitment is less certain. We studied how prion infection influenced the number of offspring raised to weaning per adult (≥2 yr old) female mule deer and subsequently the estimated growth rate (λ) of an infected deer herd. Infected and presumably uninfected radio-collared female deer were observed with their fawns in late summer (August-September) during three consecutive years (2006-2008) in the Table Mesa area of Boulder, Colorado, USA. We counted the number of fawns accompanying each female, then used a fully Bayesian model to estimate recruitment by infected and uninfected females and the effect of the disease on λ. On average, infected females weaned 0.95 fawns (95% credible interval=0.56-1.43) whereas uninfected females weaned 1.34 fawns (95% credible interval=1.09-1.61); the probability that uninfected females weaned more fawns than infected females was 0.93). We used estimates of prevalence to weight recruitment and survival parameters in the transition matrix of a three-age, single-sex matrix model and then used the matrix to calculate effects of CWD on λ. When effects of CWD on both survival and recruitment were included, the modeled λ was 0.97 (95% credible interval = 0.82-1.09). Effects of disease on λ were mediated almost entirely by elevated mortality of infected animals. We conclude that although CWD may affect mule deer recruitment, these effects seem to be sufficiently small that they can be omitted in estimating the influences of CWD on population growth rate.

  2. The Formation of Kappa-Distribution Accelerated Electron Populations in Solar Flares

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bian, N. H.; Kontar, E.; Emslie, G.

    2015-12-01

    Driven by recent RHESSI observations of confined loop-top hard X-ray sources in solar flares, we consider stochastic acceleration of electrons in the presence of Coulomb collisions. If electron escape from the acceleration region can be neglected, the electron distribution function is determined by a balance between diffusive acceleration and collisions. Such a scenario admits a stationary solution for the electron distribution function that takes the form of a kappa distribution. We show that the evolution toward this kappa distribution involves a "wave front" propagating forwards in velocity space, so that electrons of higher energy are accelerated later; the acceleration time scales as the power three-half of the energy. At sufficiently high energies escape from the finite-length acceleration region will eventually dominate. For such energies, the electron velocity distribution function is obtained by solving a time-dependent Fokker-Planck equation in the "leaky-box" approximation. Solutions are obtained in the limit of a small escape rate from an acceleration region that can effectively be considered a thick target.

  3. The formation of kappa-distribution accelerated electron populations in solar flares

    SciTech Connect

    Bian, Nicolas H.; Stackhouse, Duncan J.; Kontar, Eduard P.; Emslie, A. Gordon E-mail: d.stackhouse.1@research.gla.ac.uk E-mail: emslieg@wku.edu

    2014-12-01

    Driven by recent RHESSI observations of confined loop-top hard X-ray sources in solar flares, we consider stochastic acceleration of electrons in the presence of Coulomb collisions. If electron escape from the acceleration region can be neglected, the electron distribution function is determined by a balance between diffusive acceleration and collisions. Such a scenario admits a stationary solution for the electron distribution function that takes the form of a kappa distribution. We show that the evolution toward this kappa distribution involves a 'wave front' propagating forward in velocity space, so that electrons of higher energy are accelerated later; the acceleration timescales with energy according to τ{sub acc} ∼ E {sup 3/2}. At sufficiently high energies escape from the finite-length acceleration region will eventually dominate. For such energies, the electron velocity distribution function is obtained by solving a time-dependent Fokker-Planck equation in the 'leaky-box' approximation. Solutions are obtained in the limit of a small escape rate from an acceleration region that can effectively be considered a thick target.

  4. Evolution of thermal physiology and growth rate between populations of the western fence lizard (Sceloporus occidentalis).

    PubMed

    Sinervo, B

    1990-06-01

    Hatchling Sceloporus occidentalis from northern populations (central Oregon) grow more slowly than hatchlings from southern populations (southern California) in nature. In this study, I determine whether this difference in growth rate results from differences in thermal environment and/or in thermoregulatory behavior. To determine the degree to which the thermal environment affects growth rate among populations, I reared hatchings from the northern and southern populations in a cycling thermal regime in one of three experimental treatments differing in access to radiant heat (6, 9, or 12 h radiant heat; remainder of 24 h at 15°C). I also measured the body temperature that each individual voluntarily selected over the course of the daily activity cycle. Growth rate varied positively with duration of access to radiant heat. Within the three treatments, individual growth rate was positively correlated with body temperature. Moreover, the difference in growth rate between the northern and southern populations was due in part to differences in behavior - individuals from northern populations selected lower body temperatures. I found that significant variation in body temperature was associated with family membership, suggesting that thermal physiology has a genetic basis. Moreover, growth rate was correlated with body temperature among families in each population suggesting a genetic correlation underlies the phenotypic correlations. Thus, genetically based variation in thermal physiology contributes to differences in growth rate among individuals within a population as well as to differences among populations. PMID:22160116

  5. Dynamics of single-species population growth: stability or chaos

    SciTech Connect

    Mueller, L.D.; Ayala, F.J.

    1981-01-01

    We have examined stability at the carrying capacity for 25 genetically different populations of Drosophila melanogaster. In spite of their genetic heterogeneity, 20 of the populations yield stable equilibria and none have eigenvalues significantly greater than one. Computer simulations demonstrate how selection at the individual level may account for population stability (and, hence, that group selection is not necessary for the evolution of stability). Recent theoretical studies on density-dependent selection in random environments provide predictions consistent with our empirical findings.

  6. Comparison of accelerated ion populations observed upstream of the bow shocks at Venus and Mars

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yamauchi, M.; Futaana, Y.; Fedorov, A.; Frahm, R. A.; Winningham, J. D.; Dubinin, E.; Lundin, R.; Barabash, S.; Holmström, M.; Mazelle, C.; Sauvaud, J.-A.; Zhang, T. L.; Baumjohann, W.; Coates, A. J.; Fraenz, M.

    2011-03-01

    Foreshock ions are compared between Venus and Mars at energies of 0.6~20 keV using the same ion instrument, the Ion Mass Analyser, on board both Venus Express and Mars Express. Venus Express often observes accelerated protons (2~6 times the solar wind energy) that travel away from the Venus bow shock when the spacecraft location is magnetically connected to the bow shock. The observed ions have a large field-aligned velocity compared to the perpendicular velocity in the solar wind frame, and are similar to the field-aligned beams and intermediate gyrating component of the foreshock ions in the terrestrial upstream region. Mars Express does not observe similar foreshock ions as does Venus Express, indicating that the Martian foreshock does not possess the intermediate gyrating component in the upstream region on the dayside of the planet. Instead, two types of gyrating protons in the solar wind frame are observed very close to the Martian quasi-perpendicular bow shock within a proton gyroradius distance. The first type is observed only within the region which is about 400 km from the bow shock and flows tailward nearly along the bow shock with a similar velocity as the solar wind. The second type is observed up to about 700 km from the bow shock and has a bundled structure in the energy domain. A traversal on 12 July 2005, in which the energy-bunching came from bundling in the magnetic field direction, is further examined. The observed velocities of the latter population are consistent with multiple specular reflections of the solar wind at the bow shock, and the ions after the second reflection have a field-aligned velocity larger than that of the de Hoffman-Teller velocity frame, i.e., their guiding center has moved toward interplanetary space out from the bow shock. To account for the observed peculiarity of the Martian upstream region, finite gyroradius effects of the solar wind protons compared to the radius of the bow shock curvature and effects of cold ion

  7. A Photometer for Measuring Population Growth in Yeast.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tatina, Robert; Hartley, Tamela; Thomas, Danita

    1999-01-01

    Describes the construction and use of an inexpensive, portable photometer designed specifically for estimating population sizes in yeast cultures. Suggests activities for use with the photometer. (WRM)

  8. Population level consequences of toxicological influences on individual growth and reproduction in Lumbricus rubellus (Lumbricidae, Oligochaeta).

    PubMed

    Klok, C; de Roos, A M

    1996-03-01

    The effects of increased environmental concentrations of copper on the population dynamics of Lumbricus rubellus are investigated. A size-structured matrix model is used to translate sublethal effects on individual growth and reproduction into their population dynamical consequences. Laboratory data on growth and reproduction under different, sublethal conditions of copper stress are used to parameterize the model. An estimate for the critical threshold concentration of copper (critical in a sense that the population growth rate at this concentration equals zero), obtained from the model analysis, agrees well with observations on field populations of L. rubellus. PMID:8723748

  9. Population Growth and Policies in Mega-Cities. Sao Paulo.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    United Nations New York, NY. Dept. of Economic and Social Information and Policy Analysis.

    This document is one in a series of studies that focus on the population policies and plans of a number of mega-cities in developing countries. The object of the series is to examine the formulation, implementation, and evaluation of the population policies of mega-cities from a broad perspective, emphasizing the reciprocal links between…

  10. A macro analysis of population growth of China's ethnic groups in the 1980s.

    PubMed

    Yang, S; Liu, W

    1992-06-01

    8% of China's population is comprised of the 55 identified ethnic groups in 1990. The growth rate of this population between 1982 and 1990 was very high at 38.7/1000, or an increase of 1.43 over the previous 18 years. Natural increase was 18/1000. The total fertility rate was 2.9 in 1990. The causes for such rapid growth are reaffirmation of ethnic identity, a high fertility rate, and intermarriage with Han residents. 59% of the increased population reflected a new classification as an ethnic minority. Intermarriage with Han accounted for 4.4% of the increase. Since the revolution of 1949, there has been a release from the former oppression and population declines. In 1978, preferential policies were mandated for ethnic groups, which encouraged ethnic recognition. Ethnic status was enhanced and national awareness of ethnic groups was increased. The visual display of the ethnic age pyramid is evidence that the shape is quite different from the Han population. There are greater numbers of teenagers and those in reproductive ages. This cluster will affect population growth after the century's end. Ethnic population growth due to reaffirmation of ethnic identity also is different from natural increase in regional migration. A rise in population density within a location is not apparent. Carrying capacity of the local economy, resources, or environment is unaffected by the increase. It is inappropriate to measure the population pressure of high ethnic population growth. Eventually, ethnic growth will affect the growth rate of the national population. In ethnic areas, population growth should be planned in concert with economic development, use of resources, and protection of the ecology. Thus, ethnic area income/capita will be increased, inequality will be erased, and national autonomy achieved. The social stability and prosperity of all China is dependent on respect for happiness among ethnic minorities and economic and social development.

  11. Ocean Acidification Accelerates the Growth of Two Bloom-Forming Macroalgae.

    PubMed

    Young, Craig S; Gobler, Christopher J

    2016-01-01

    While there is growing interest in understanding how marine life will respond to future ocean acidification, many coastal ecosystems currently experience intense acidification in response to upwelling, eutrophication, or riverine discharge. Such acidification can be inhibitory to calcifying animals, but less is known regarding how non-calcifying macroalgae may respond to elevated CO2. Here, we report on experiments performed during summer through fall with North Atlantic populations of Gracilaria and Ulva that were grown in situ within a mesotrophic estuary (Shinnecock Bay, NY, USA) or exposed to normal and elevated, but environmentally realistic, levels of pCO2 and/or nutrients (nitrogen and phosphorus). In nearly all experiments, the growth rates of Gracilaria were significantly increased by an average of 70% beyond in situ and control conditions when exposed to elevated levels of pCO2 (p<0.05), but were unaffected by nutrient enrichment. In contrast, the growth response of Ulva was more complex as this alga experienced significantly (p<0.05) increased growth rates in response to both elevated pCO2 and elevated nutrients and, in two cases, pCO2 and nutrients interacted to provide a synergistically enhanced growth rate for Ulva. Across all experiments, elevated pCO2 significantly increased Ulva growth rates by 30% (p<0.05), while the response to nutrients was smaller (p>0.05). The δ13C content of both Gracilaria and Ulva decreased two-to-three fold when grown under elevated pCO2 (p<0.001) and mixing models demonstrated these macroalgae experienced a physiological shift from near exclusive use of HCO3- to primarily CO2 use when exposed to elevated pCO2. This shift in carbon use coupled with significantly increased growth in response to elevated pCO2 suggests that photosynthesis of these algae was limited by their inorganic carbon supply. Given that eutrophication can yield elevated levels of pCO2, this study suggests that the overgrowth of macroalgae in eutrophic

  12. Ocean Acidification Accelerates the Growth of Two Bloom-Forming Macroalgae

    PubMed Central

    Young, Craig S.; Gobler, Christopher J.

    2016-01-01

    While there is growing interest in understanding how marine life will respond to future ocean acidification, many coastal ecosystems currently experience intense acidification in response to upwelling, eutrophication, or riverine discharge. Such acidification can be inhibitory to calcifying animals, but less is known regarding how non-calcifying macroalgae may respond to elevated CO2. Here, we report on experiments performed during summer through fall with North Atlantic populations of Gracilaria and Ulva that were grown in situ within a mesotrophic estuary (Shinnecock Bay, NY, USA) or exposed to normal and elevated, but environmentally realistic, levels of pCO2 and/or nutrients (nitrogen and phosphorus). In nearly all experiments, the growth rates of Gracilaria were significantly increased by an average of 70% beyond in situ and control conditions when exposed to elevated levels of pCO2 (p<0.05), but were unaffected by nutrient enrichment. In contrast, the growth response of Ulva was more complex as this alga experienced significantly (p<0.05) increased growth rates in response to both elevated pCO2 and elevated nutrients and, in two cases, pCO2 and nutrients interacted to provide a synergistically enhanced growth rate for Ulva. Across all experiments, elevated pCO2 significantly increased Ulva growth rates by 30% (p<0.05), while the response to nutrients was smaller (p>0.05). The δ13C content of both Gracilaria and Ulva decreased two-to-three fold when grown under elevated pCO2 (p<0.001) and mixing models demonstrated these macroalgae experienced a physiological shift from near exclusive use of HCO3- to primarily CO2 use when exposed to elevated pCO2. This shift in carbon use coupled with significantly increased growth in response to elevated pCO2 suggests that photosynthesis of these algae was limited by their inorganic carbon supply. Given that eutrophication can yield elevated levels of pCO2, this study suggests that the overgrowth of macroalgae in eutrophic

  13. Accelerated Aging Experiments for Prognostics of Damage Growth in Composite Materials

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Saxena, Abhinav; Goebel, Kai Frank; Larrosa, Cecilia C.; Janapati, Vishnuvardhan; Roy, Surajit; Chang, Fu-Kuo

    2011-01-01

    Composite structures are gaining importance for use in the aerospace industry. Compared to metallic structures their behavior is less well understood. This lack of understanding may pose constraints on their use. One possible way to deal with some of the risks associated with potential failure is to perform in-situ monitoring to detect precursors of failures. Prognostic algorithms can be used to predict impending failures. They require large amounts of training data to build and tune damage model for making useful predictions. One of the key aspects is to get confirmatory feedback from data as damage progresses. These kinds of data are rarely available from actual systems. The next possible resource to collect such data is an accelerated aging platform. To that end this paper describes a fatigue cycling experiment with the goal to stress carbon-carbon composite coupons with various layups. Piezoelectric disc sensors were used to periodically interrogate the system. Analysis showed distinct differences in the signatures of growing failures between data collected at conditions. Periodic X-radiographs were taken to assess the damage ground truth. Results after signal processing showed clear trends of damage growth that were correlated to damage assessed from the X-ray images.

  14. The demographic consequences of mutualism: ants increase host-plant fruit production but not population growth.

    PubMed

    Ford, Kevin R; Ness, Joshua H; Bronstein, Judith L; Morris, William F

    2015-10-01

    The impact of mutualists on a partner's demography depends on how they affect the partner's multiple vital rates and how those vital rates, in turn, affect population growth. However, mutualism studies rarely measure effects on multiple vital rates or integrate them to assess the ultimate impact on population growth. We used vital rate data, population models and simulations of long-term population dynamics to quantify the demographic impact of a guild of ant species on the plant Ferocactus wislizeni. The ants feed at the plant's extrafloral nectaries and attack herbivores attempting to consume reproductive organs. Ant-guarded plants produced significantly more fruit, but ants had no significant effect on individual growth or survival. After integrating ant effects across these vital rates, we found that projected population growth was not significantly different between unguarded and ant-guarded plants because population growth was only weakly influenced by differences in fruit production (though strongly influenced by differences in individual growth and survival). However, simulations showed that ants could positively affect long-term plant population dynamics through services provided during rare but important events (herbivore outbreaks that reduce survival or years of high seedling recruitment associated with abundant precipitation). Thus, in this seemingly clear example of mutualism, the interaction may actually yield no clear benefit to plant population growth, or if it does, may only do so through the actions of the ants during rare events. These insights demonstrate the value of taking a demographic approach to studying the consequences of mutualism.

  15. [Population growth rate of the rotifer Brachionus rotundiformis (Rotifera: Brachionidae) in a two-stage chemostat].

    PubMed

    Cabrera, María I

    2008-09-01

    The population growth rate of the rotifer Brachionus rotundiformis (Rotifera: Brachionidae) in two-stage chemostat. The population growth rates of Brachionus rotundiformis were estimated in two-stage chemostat cultures. Chlorella sorokiniana was supplied continuously from a steady state culture growing with constant illumination on limiting nitrate. Rotifer growth in the second stage was limited by the rate of algal supply. The algal supply rate and rotifer population growth rate were determined by the second-stage dilution rate. The maximum population growth rate in the transient state of B. rotundiformis (1.96 day(-1)) was observed at 2.5 x 10(6) cel/ml of the algae whereas in the steady state the maximum population growth rate (1.09 day(-1)) was similar to the point Hopf's bifurcation predicted by Fussmann and was observed at 1 x 10(6) cel/ml of the algae. In the transient state, the rotifer's growth rate increased and the duplication time decreased at higher algal concentrations, until reaching a peak where the population growth rate begins to decrease. In the steady state, the opposite was true. The growth rates observed in this work are among the highest recorded for this rotifer in continuous cultures.

  16. Impacts of Hispanic Population Growth on Rural Wages. Agricultural Economic Report.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Newman, Constance

    Although earnings generally increased in rural areas in the 1990s, Hispanic population growth led to lower wages for at least one segment of the rural population--workers with a high school degree (skilled workers), particularly men in this skill group. Using data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Current Population Survey, this report…

  17. Life-History and Spatial Determinants of Somatic Growth Dynamics in Komodo Dragon Populations

    PubMed Central

    Laver, Rebecca J.; Purwandana, Deni; Ariefiandy, Achmad; Imansyah, Jeri; Forsyth, David; Ciofi, Claudio; Jessop, Tim S.

    2012-01-01

    Somatic growth patterns represent a major component of organismal fitness and may vary among sexes and populations due to genetic and environmental processes leading to profound differences in life-history and demography. This study considered the ontogenic, sex-specific and spatial dynamics of somatic growth patterns in ten populations of the world’s largest lizard the Komodo dragon (Varanus komodoensis). The growth of 400 individual Komodo dragons was measured in a capture-mark-recapture study at ten sites on four islands in eastern Indonesia, from 2002 to 2010. Generalized Additive Mixed Models (GAMMs) and information-theoretic methods were used to examine how growth rates varied with size, age and sex, and across and within islands in relation to site-specific prey availability, lizard population density and inbreeding coefficients. Growth trajectories differed significantly with size and between sexes, indicating different energy allocation tactics and overall costs associated with reproduction. This leads to disparities in maximum body sizes and longevity. Spatial variation in growth was strongly supported by a curvilinear density-dependent growth model with highest growth rates occurring at intermediate population densities. Sex-specific trade-offs in growth underpin key differences in Komodo dragon life-history including evidence for high costs of reproduction in females. Further, inverse density-dependent growth may have profound effects on individual and population level processes that influence the demography of this species. PMID:23028983

  18. Life-history and spatial determinants of somatic growth dynamics in Komodo dragon populations.

    PubMed

    Laver, Rebecca J; Purwandana, Deni; Ariefiandy, Achmad; Imansyah, Jeri; Forsyth, David; Ciofi, Claudio; Jessop, Tim S

    2012-01-01

    Somatic growth patterns represent a major component of organismal fitness and may vary among sexes and populations due to genetic and environmental processes leading to profound differences in life-history and demography. This study considered the ontogenic, sex-specific and spatial dynamics of somatic growth patterns in ten populations of the world's largest lizard the Komodo dragon (Varanus komodoensis). The growth of 400 individual Komodo dragons was measured in a capture-mark-recapture study at ten sites on four islands in eastern Indonesia, from 2002 to 2010. Generalized Additive Mixed Models (GAMMs) and information-theoretic methods were used to examine how growth rates varied with size, age and sex, and across and within islands in relation to site-specific prey availability, lizard population density and inbreeding coefficients. Growth trajectories differed significantly with size and between sexes, indicating different energy allocation tactics and overall costs associated with reproduction. This leads to disparities in maximum body sizes and longevity. Spatial variation in growth was strongly supported by a curvilinear density-dependent growth model with highest growth rates occurring at intermediate population densities. Sex-specific trade-offs in growth underpin key differences in Komodo dragon life-history including evidence for high costs of reproduction in females. Further, inverse density-dependent growth may have profound effects on individual and population level processes that influence the demography of this species.

  19. Life-history and spatial determinants of somatic growth dynamics in Komodo dragon populations.

    PubMed

    Laver, Rebecca J; Purwandana, Deni; Ariefiandy, Achmad; Imansyah, Jeri; Forsyth, David; Ciofi, Claudio; Jessop, Tim S

    2012-01-01

    Somatic growth patterns represent a major component of organismal fitness and may vary among sexes and populations due to genetic and environmental processes leading to profound differences in life-history and demography. This study considered the ontogenic, sex-specific and spatial dynamics of somatic growth patterns in ten populations of the world's largest lizard the Komodo dragon (Varanus komodoensis). The growth of 400 individual Komodo dragons was measured in a capture-mark-recapture study at ten sites on four islands in eastern Indonesia, from 2002 to 2010. Generalized Additive Mixed Models (GAMMs) and information-theoretic methods were used to examine how growth rates varied with size, age and sex, and across and within islands in relation to site-specific prey availability, lizard population density and inbreeding coefficients. Growth trajectories differed significantly with size and between sexes, indicating different energy allocation tactics and overall costs associated with reproduction. This leads to disparities in maximum body sizes and longevity. Spatial variation in growth was strongly supported by a curvilinear density-dependent growth model with highest growth rates occurring at intermediate population densities. Sex-specific trade-offs in growth underpin key differences in Komodo dragon life-history including evidence for high costs of reproduction in females. Further, inverse density-dependent growth may have profound effects on individual and population level processes that influence the demography of this species. PMID:23028983

  20. Rapid population growth of a critically endangered carnivore.

    PubMed

    Grenier, M B; McDonald, D B; Buskirk, S W

    2007-08-10

    Reintroductions of endangered species are controversial because of high costs and frequent failures. However, the population of black-footed ferrets descended from animals released in Shirley Basin, Wyoming, from 1991 to 1994 has grown rapidly after a decline to a low of five animals in 1997. Beginning around 2000, the population grew rapidly to an estimated 223 (95% confidence interval is 192 to 401) individuals in 2006. Matrix population modeling shows the importance of survival and reproduction during the first year of life, reflecting an uncommon life history for an endangered mammalian carnivore. Recovery of the species may benefit from more opportunistic and widespread releases. PMID:17690288

  1. Effects of Climate Change on Plant Population Growth Rate and Community Composition Change

    PubMed Central

    Chang, Xiao-Yu; Chen, Bao-Ming; Liu, Gang; Zhou, Ting; Jia, Xiao-Rong; Peng, Shao-Lin

    2015-01-01

    The impacts of climate change on forest community composition are still not well known. Although directional trends in climate change and community composition change were reported in recent years, further quantitative analyses are urgently needed. Previous studies focused on measuring population growth rates in a single time period, neglecting the development of the populations. Here we aimed to compose a method for calculating the community composition change, and to testify the impacts of climate change on community composition change within a relatively short period (several decades) based on long-term monitoring data from two plots—Dinghushan Biosphere Reserve, China (DBR) and Barro Colorado Island, Panama (BCI)—that are located in tropical and subtropical regions. We proposed a relatively more concise index, Slnλ, which refers to an overall population growth rate based on the dominant species in a community. The results indicated that the population growth rate of a majority of populations has decreased over the past few decades. This decrease was mainly caused by population development. The increasing temperature had a positive effect on population growth rates and community change rates. Our results promote understanding and explaining variations in population growth rates and community composition rates, and are helpful to predict population dynamics and population responses to climate change. PMID:26039073

  2. Effects of climate change on plant population growth rate and community composition change.

    PubMed

    Chang, Xiao-Yu; Chen, Bao-Ming; Liu, Gang; Zhou, Ting; Jia, Xiao-Rong; Peng, Shao-Lin

    2015-01-01

    The impacts of climate change on forest community composition are still not well known. Although directional trends in climate change and community composition change were reported in recent years, further quantitative analyses are urgently needed. Previous studies focused on measuring population growth rates in a single time period, neglecting the development of the populations. Here we aimed to compose a method for calculating the community composition change, and to testify the impacts of climate change on community composition change within a relatively short period (several decades) based on long-term monitoring data from two plots-Dinghushan Biosphere Reserve, China (DBR) and Barro Colorado Island, Panama (BCI)-that are located in tropical and subtropical regions. We proposed a relatively more concise index, Slnλ, which refers to an overall population growth rate based on the dominant species in a community. The results indicated that the population growth rate of a majority of populations has decreased over the past few decades. This decrease was mainly caused by population development. The increasing temperature had a positive effect on population growth rates and community change rates. Our results promote understanding and explaining variations in population growth rates and community composition rates, and are helpful to predict population dynamics and population responses to climate change.

  3. Future population growth: researchers in three countries quantify causes and propose policies.

    PubMed

    1997-01-01

    This article discusses Population Council analyses conducted by social scientists from India, Kenya, and the Philippines. These scientists agreed that population momentum would continue to increase population size, and that governments must strengthen and create a range of economic, health, and social programs and policies to slow population growth. Multiple approaches will be needed. John Bongaarts is credited with being the first to identify the key role of population momentum and to decompose growth into unwanted fertility, high desired fertility, and population momentum. Unwanted fertility is responsible for about 19% of projected population growth in India, 26% in Kenya, and 16% in the Philippines. High wanted fertility accounts for 20% of future growth in India, 6% in Kenya, and 19% in the Philippines. Population momentum can account for under 50% or over 90% of growth. Unwanted fertility can be addressed by fulfilling unmet need and increasing knowledge of methods, reducing the fear of side effects and disapproval, and eliminating poor service. Family planning programs need to be strengthened and integrated with maternal and child health services. Preferred and actual family sizes can be reduced by lowering infant mortality by means of increasing infant and child health services and girls' educational attainment. Population momentum can be addressed by delaying age at marriage and childbearing through improving social conditions. Investments in human development through education, training, and income generation can create the conditions for slowing population growth. Countries should decompose population growth into its components of unwanted and high wanted fertility and population momentum as a means of distributing resources most effectively. PMID:12292641

  4. Retrospective study of maxilla growth in a Spanish population sample.

    PubMed

    Alió-Sanz, Juan; Iglesias-Conde, Carmen; Pernía, José-Lorenzo; Iglesias-Linares, Alejandro; Mendoza-Mendoza, Asunción; Solano-Reina, Enrique

    2011-03-01

    This study has been designed to evaluate the vertical and sagittal changes in the maxilla due to growth. A sample group was chosen of 38 individuals with normal occlusion, composed of 16 females and 22 males between the ages of 8 and 18. The total sample was divided into three groups: prepubescent (8-11 years), pubescent (12-14 years) and post-pubescent (15-18 years). A series of cephalometric angle parameters (SNA, maxillary height, slope of the palatal plane and maxillary depth) and lineal parameters (effective maxillary length, palatal plane length, middle third of the face height and convexity) were traced. Superimpositions of the initial and final cephalometries in the Ba-N plane and in the Nasion fixed point were carried out to measure growth. An analytic statistical analysis was applied using a Student t test for independent samples in order to evaluate the differences found according to sex. An analysis of variance followed by Duncan's multiple range test was done to study the evolution of each variable throughout the duration of the experiment. In light of the results obtained, we have come to the following conclusions: sagittal growth of the maxilla is constant from the age of 8 to 18 years with an average increase of 0.2 mm/year. Vertical growth, as well as general maxillary growth, is greater in the prepubescent group.

  5. Introduced Brassica nigra populations exhibit greater growth and herbivore resistance but less tolerance than native populations in the native range.

    PubMed

    Oduor, Ayub M O; Lankau, Richard A; Strauss, Sharon Y; Gómez, José M

    2011-07-01

    Rapid post-introduction evolution has been found in many invasive plant species, and includes changes in defence (resistance and tolerance) and competitive ability traits. Here, we explored the post-introduction evolution of a trade-off between resistance to and tolerance of herbivory, which has received little attention. In a common garden experiment in a native range, nine invasive and 16 native populations of Brassica nigra were compared for growth and defence traits. Invasive populations had higher resistance to, but lower tolerance of, herbivore damage than native populations. Invasive populations survived better and produced more seeds than native ones when released from herbivores; but fitness was equivalent between the regions under ambient herbivory. The invasive populations grew taller, and produced more biomass and lighter seeds than natives, irrespective of insecticide treatment. In addition to supporting the idea of post-introduction rapid evolution of plant traits, our results also contribute to an emerging pattern of both increasing resistance and growth in invasive populations, contrary to the predictions of earlier theories of resistance-growth trade-offs. PMID:21410474

  6. Effects of an acidic fibroblast growth factor fragment analog on learning and memory and on medial septum cholinergic neurons in senescence-accelerated mice.

    PubMed

    Sasaki, K; Tooyama, I; Li, A J; Oomura, Y; Kimura, H

    1999-01-01

    We examined the effects of repeated subcutaneous injections of an acidic fibroblast growth factor fragment analog, [Ala16] acidic fibroblast growth factor (1-29), on learning and memory and on the choline acetyltransferase immunoreactivity of forebrain neurons in senescence-accelerated mice. One group of accelerated senescence-prone mice (accelerated senescence-prone-8) received [Ala16] acidic fibroblast growth factor (1-29), whereas the other group of accelerated senescence-prone-8 mice and a group of accelerated senescence-resistant mice (control) received vehicle solution. Injections began at three weeks after birth and were given weekly for 10 months. In a passive avoidance test, the mean retention latency at three, six and nine months of age was significantly longer in controls (vehicle-treated accelerated senescence-resistant-1) and acidic fibroblast growth factor fragment-treated accelerated senescence-prone-8 than in vehicle-treated accelerated senescence-prone-8 mice, and the latency in acidic fibroblast growth factor fragment-treated accelerated senescence-prone-8 mice was significantly shorter than that in controls only at nine months of age. In the Morris water maze task, the mean latency to climb onto the platform was significantly longer in acidic fibroblast growth factor fragment- and vehicle-treated accelerated senescence-prone-8 mice than in controls. However, the mean latency in the third and fourth trial blocks was significantly shorter for acidic fibroblast growth factor fragment-treated accelerated senescence-prone-8 than for vehicle-treated accelerated senescence-prone-8 mice. In the probe trials, controls and acidic fibroblast growth factor fragment-treated accelerated senescence-prone-8 mice spent significantly more time in the quadrant in which the platform had previously been located than in the other three quadrants. In acidic fibroblast growth factor fragment-treated accelerated senescence-prone-8 mice, the density of medial septum

  7. Geographic after-tax real income differentials and population growth rates.

    PubMed

    Alexander, G; Cebula, R J; Koch, J V

    1990-03-01

    "The purpose of this [one-page] note is to empirically investigate the impact of geographic after-tax real income differentials on geographic population growth rate differentials. The focus is on population growth rates in Florida's 67 counties over the period 1980-88." The authors conclude that "even after allowing for a variety of other location-influencing factors, including coastal access, after-tax real income differentials exercise a positive and significant impact on population growth rate differentials among Florida's counties."

  8. Effect of Residual Accelerations on the Crystal Growth of II-VI Semiconductors in Low Earth Orbit

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gillies, D. C.; Su, C.-H.; Szofran, F. R.; Scripa, R. N.; Cobb, S. D.; Lehoczky, S. L.; Curreri, Peter A. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    The paper compares and summarizes the effects of residual acceleration during crystal growth on the compositional variation of two II-VI solid solution binary alloys (Hg(0.8)Cd(0.2)Te and Hg(0.84)Zn(0.16)Te). The crystals were grown by directional solidification on the second United States Microgravity Payload (USMP-2) and the first United States Microgravity Laboratory (USML-1) missions, respectively. For both alloys, changes in the direction and magnitude of the quasisteady acceleration vector (approximately 0.4- 1 mu g) caused large changes in the radial compositional distribution that demonstrates the importance of residual accelerations, even in the submicrogravity range, for large density gradients in the melt and slow solidification rates. The observed compositional variations will be correlated to changes in the radial flow velocities ahead of the solidification interface.

  9. The role of growth of normal and preneoplastic cell populations for tumor promotion in rat liver

    PubMed Central

    Schulte-Hermann, R.; Schuppler, J.; Timmermann-Trosiener, I.; Ohde, G.; Bursch, W.; Berger, H.

    1983-01-01

    A number of different compounds, including phenobarbital, hypolipidemic drugs such as clofibrate and nafenopin, the sex steroids progesterone, cyproterone acetate, estradiol and mestranol, chlorinated hydrocarbons such as DDT, hexachlorocyclohexane, and TCDD and the antioxidant butylhydroxytoluene, appears to promote the development of liver tumors from previously induced initiated cells. The mechanisms of tumor promotion by several representative prototypes of these compounds were studied in rat liver in vivo. All liver tumor promoters mentioned above stimulate growth of normal liver. The growth response is due to cellular hypertrophy and/or increased rate of DNA (and cell) replication and/or decreased rate of cell death. Hepatocytes in foci or islands of altered cells (putatively preneoplastic) show higher rates of replication than normal liver cells; various different liver tumor promoters cause a further increase of proliferation of focal cells. The increased proliferative activity is found in different island phenotypes and thus seems to be a useful marker of the putative preneoplastic state. The focal cells respond to several factors limiting proliferation in normal liver, suggesting that they are not autonomous with respect to growth control. Early preneoplastic foci grow slowly without promotion, despite the relatively high rates of cell replication. Thus their cells seem to have a much shorter life-time than normal hepatocytes or to undergo reversion to the normal phenotype. Promoters seem to accelerate island enlargement by increasing cell replication and delaying cell death or remodeling. Thus, tumor promoters enhance the manifestation of the proliferation advantage of the putative initiated cell population. In addition, promoters cause increases in the number of detectable islands. This can partially be explained by enlargement of existing islands, but phenotypic changes that would enhance the probability of detection of remodelling islands and growth

  10. Population Growth and Family Planning. IN Visitors' Information Special Report. SO 6.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Heisse, Thomas

    The rapid and still-accelerating increase in the world's population, especially in developing nations, will have a number of serious economic, social, and ecological consequences for the whole world. Germany is attempting to help solve these problems by providing family planning and poverty alleviation assistance to developing nations. German…

  11. Accelerated Schools Centers: How To Address Challenges to Institutionalization and Growth.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Meza, James, Jr.

    The Accelerated Schools Project (ASP) at the University of New Orleans (UNO) was established in spring 1990, funded by a 3-year grant from Chevron. Beginning with 1 pilot school in 1991, the UNO Accelerated Schools Center has expanded to 36 schools representing 19 school districts in Louisiana and 3 schools from the Memphis City Schools district.…

  12. World Bank Atlas: Population, Per Capita Product and Growth Rates.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    World Bank, Washington, DC.

    The ninth edition of the World Bank Atlas shows estimates of population, gross national product, and per capita production of 189 countries and territories for 1972. The data presented in the atlas are the result of the work of the World Bank Group whose major purpose is to provide both financial and technical assistance and to improve the living…

  13. Calculating the Financial Impact of Population Growth on Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cline, Daniel H.

    It is particularly difficult to make accurate enrollment projections for areas that are experiencing a rapid expansion in their population. The traditional method of calculating cohort survival ratios must be modified and supplemented with additional information to ensure accuracy; cost projection methods require detailed analyses of current costs…

  14. Trophic interactions and population growth rates: describing patterns and identifying mechanisms.

    PubMed Central

    Hudson, Peter J; Dobson, Andy P; Cattadori, Isabella M; Newborn, David; Haydon, Dan T; Shaw, Darren J; Benton, Tim G; Grenfell, Bryan T

    2002-01-01

    While the concept of population growth rate has been of central importance in the development of the theory of population dynamics, few empirical studies consider the intrinsic growth rate in detail, let alone how it may vary within and between populations of the same species. In an attempt to link theory with data we take two approaches. First, we address the question 'what growth rate patterns does theory predict we should see in time-series?' The models make a number of predictions, which in general are supported by a comparative study between time-series of harvesting data from 352 red grouse populations. Variations in growth rate between grouse populations were associated with factors that reflected the quality and availability of the main food plant of the grouse. However, while these results support predictions from theory, they provide no clear insight into the mechanisms influencing reductions in population growth rate and regulation. In the second part of the paper, we consider the results of experiments, first at the individual level and then at the population level, to identify the important mechanisms influencing changes in individual productivity and population growth rate. The parasitic nematode Trichostrongylus tenuis is found to have an important influence on productivity, and when incorporated into models with their patterns of distribution between individuals has a destabilizing effect and generates negative growth rates. The hypothesis that negative growth rates at the population level were caused by parasites was demonstrated by a replicated population level experiment. With a sound and tested model framework we then explore the interaction with other natural enemies and show that in general they tend to stabilize variations in growth rate. Interestingly, the models show selective predators that remove heavily infected individuals can release the grouse from parasite-induced regulation and allow equilibrium populations to rise. By contrast, a

  15. Accelerating 21st Century Economic Growth by Implementation of the Lunar Solar Power System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Criswell, D. R.

    2002-01-01

    The World Energy Council (1) makes this declaration. "Given this dramatically uneven distribution and the limited evidence of improvement in economic growth in many developing countries, WEC at the 17th World Congress in Houston in September 1998 concluded that the number one priority in sustainable energy development today for all decision-makers in all countries is to extend access to commercial energy services to the people who do not now have it and to those who will come into the world in the next two decades, largely in developing countries, without such access." By ~2050 the global systems should supply 10 billion people approximately 6.7 kilowatts of thermal power per person or 61,360 kWt-h/y-person of energy. The economic equivalent is ~2 - 3 kWe of electric power per person. The energy must be environmentally clean. The energy must be sufficiently low in cost that the 2 billion poorest people, who now make 1,000 /y-person, can be provided with the new power. A survey of twenty-five options for providing adequate commercial electric power, including solar power satellites in orbit about Earth, concludes that only the Lunar Solar Power System can meet the WEC challenge (2, 3, 4, 5). Maurice Strong is the former CEO of Ontario Hydro and organizer of the 1992 Rio Environmental Summit. Quoting Strong - "I have checked it (LSP System) out with a number of experts, all of whom confirmed that the idea, which has been mooted for some time, may now be ripe to carry forward. --- The project would deliver net new energy to the Earth that is independent of the biosphere, would produce no CO2 or other polluting emissions and have minimal environmental impact compared with other energy sources." (6). Electric energy provided by the LSP System can accelerate terrestrial economic growth in several ways. A cost of less than 1 cent per kilowatt electric hour seems achievable. This allows poor nations to buy adequate energy. Increasing per capita use of electric power is

  16. Survival, recruitment, and population growth rate of an important mesopredator: the northern raccoon.

    PubMed

    Troyer, Elizabeth M; Cameron Devitt, Susan E; Sunquist, Melvin E; Goswami, Varun R; Oli, Madan K

    2014-01-01

    Populations of mesopredators (mid-sized mammalian carnivores) are expanding in size and range amid declining apex predator populations and ever-growing human presence, leading to significant ecological impacts. Despite their obvious importance, population dynamics have scarcely been studied for most mesopredator species. Information on basic population parameters and processes under a range of conditions is necessary for managing these species. Here we investigate survival, recruitment, and population growth rate of a widely distributed and abundant mesopredator, the northern raccoon (Procyon lotor), using Pradel's temporal symmetry models and >6 years of monthly capture-mark-recapture data collected in a protected area. Monthly apparent survival probability was higher for females (0.949, 95% CI = 0.936-0.960) than for males (0.908, 95% CI = 0.893-0.920), while monthly recruitment rate was higher for males (0.091, 95% CI = 0.078-0.106) than for females (0.054, 95% CI = 0.042-0.067). Finally, monthly realized population growth rate was 1.000 (95% CI = 0.996-1.004), indicating that our study population has reached a stable equilibrium in this relatively undisturbed habitat. There was little evidence for substantial temporal variation in population growth rate or its components. Our study is one of the first to quantify survival, recruitment, and realized population growth rate of raccoons using long-term data and rigorous statistical models.

  17. The environment and population growth: decade for action.

    PubMed

    1992-05-01

    The signs of environmental stress grow as the world's population increases: worn-out farmlands, eroded hillsides, polluted water, parched grasslands, smoke-laden air, depleted ozone, and treeless ranges. Each year about 17 million hectares of tropical forest vanish--an area the size of Tunisia or Uruguay. Fish catches are leveling off. Cities are clogged with refuse. Water and air, instead of sustaining life, cause disease.

  18. Effect of population density on growth, biomass and nickel accumulation capacity of Lemna gibba (Lemnaceae).

    PubMed

    Demirezen, Dilek; Aksoy, Ahmet; Uruç, Kadiriye

    2007-01-01

    The effect of population densities on the growth rate and metal (nickel) accumulation capacity of Lemna gibba (Lemnaceae) was studied under laboratory conditions. At high population densities (800 or 1600 seedling per pot), we observed decreasing growth rate with increasing L. gibba density. Especially, at a density of 1600 seedling a pot the net growth rate became negative. This lower growth rate may relate to lower local temperatures and nutrients within L. gibba mats. Biomass production was inhibited by an increase in plant density. Additionally, high population densities caused decreasing nickel accumulation by L. gibba. In this study, a simple model was created according to data obtained from this study. The model has suggested that crowding is an important factor in limitation of growth of L. gibba. PMID:16828144

  19. Modeling tradeoffs in avian life history traits and consequences for population growth

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Clark, M.E.; Martin, T.E.

    2007-01-01

    Variation in population dynamics is inherently related to life history characteristics of species, which vary markedly even within phylogenetic groups such as passerine birds. We computed the finite rate of population change (??) from a matrix projection model and from mark-recapture observations for 23 bird species breeding in northern Arizona. We used sensitivity analyses and a simulation model to separate contributions of different life history traits to population growth rate. In particular we focused on contrasting effects of components of reproduction (nest success, clutch size, number of clutches, and juvenile survival) versus adult survival on ??. We explored how changes in nest success or adult survival coupled to costs in other life history parameters affected ?? over a life history gradient provided by our 23 Arizona species, as well as a broader sample of 121 North American passerine species. We further examined these effects for more than 200 passeriform and piciform populations breeding across North America. Model simulations indicate nest success and juvenile survival exert the largest effects on population growth in species with moderate to high reproductive output, whereas adult survival contributed more to population growth in long-lived species. Our simulations suggest that monitoring breeding success in populations across a broad geographic area provides an important index for identifying neotropical migratory populations at risk of serious population declines and a potential method for identifying large-scale mechanisms regulating population dynamics. ?? 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Shanghai: a study on the spatial growth of population and economy in a Chinese metropolitan area.

    PubMed

    Zhu, J

    1995-01-01

    In this study of the growth in population and industry in Shanghai, China, between the 1982 and 1990 censuses, data on administrative divisions was normalized through digitization and spatial analysis. Analysis focused on spatial units, intensity of growth, time period, distance, rate of growth, and direction of spatial growth. The trisection method divided the city into city proper, outskirts, and suburbs. The distance function method considered the distance from center city as a function: exponential, power, trigonometric, logarithmic, and polynomial. Population growth and employment in all sectors increased in the outskirts and suburbs and decreased in the city proper except tertiary sectors. Primary sector employment decreased in all three sections. Employment in the secondary increased faster in the outskirts and suburbs than the total rate of growth of population and employment. In the city secondary sector employment rates decreased faster than total population and employment rates. The tertiary sector had the highest rate of growth in all sections, and employment grew faster than secondary sector rates. Tertiary growth was highest in real estate, finance, and insurance. Industrial growth in the secondary sector was 160.2% in the suburbs, 156.6% in the outskirts, and 80.9% in the city. In the distance function analysis, industry expanded further out than the entire secondary sector. Commerce grew the fastest in areas 15.4 km from center city. Economic growth was faster after economic reforms in 1978. Growth was led by industry and followed by the secondary sector, the tertiary sector, and population. Industrial expansion resulted from inner pressure, political factors controlling size, the social and economic system, and the housing construction and distribution system. Initially sociopsychological factors affected urban concentration. PMID:12288964

  1. Temporal association between childhood leukaemia and population growth in Swiss municipalities.

    PubMed

    Lupatsch, Judith E; Kreis, Christian; Zwahlen, Marcel; Niggli, Felix; Ammann, Roland A; Kuehni, Claudia E; Spycher, Ben D

    2016-08-01

    The population mixing hypothesis proposes that childhood leukaemia (CL) might be a rare complication of a yet unidentified subclinical infection. Large population influxes into previously isolated rural areas may foster localised epidemics of the postulated infection causing a subsequent increase of CL. While marked population growth after a period of stability was central to the formulation of the hypothesis and to the early studies on population mixing, there is a lack of objective criteria to define such growth patterns. We aimed to determine whether periods of marked population growth coincided with increases in the risk of CL in Swiss municipalities. We identified incident cases of CL aged 0-15 years for the period 1985-2010 from the Swiss Childhood Cancer Registry. Annual data on population counts in Swiss municipalities were obtained for 1980-2010. As exposures, we defined (1) cumulative population growth during a 5-year moving time window centred on each year (1985-2010) and (2) periods of 'take-off growth' identified by segmented linear regression. We compared CL incidence across exposure categories using Poisson regression and tested for effect modification by degree of urbanisation. Our study included 1500 incident cases and 2561 municipalities. The incident rate ratio (IRR) comparing the highest to the lowest quintile of 5-year population growth was 1.18 (95 % CI 0.96, 1.46) in all municipalities and 1.33 (95 % CI 0.93, 1.92) in rural municipalities (p value interaction 0.36). In municipalities with take-off growth, the IRR comparing the take-off period (>6 % annual population growth) with the initial period of low or negative growth (<2 %) was 2.07 (95 % CI 0.95, 4.51) overall and 2.99 (1.11, 8.05) in rural areas (p interaction 0.52). Our study provides further support for the population mixing hypothesis and underlines the need to distinguish take-off growth from other growth patterns in future research. PMID:27251152

  2. Genetic Parameter Estimation in Seedstock Swine Population for Growth Performances

    PubMed Central

    Choi, Jae Gwan; Cho, Chung Il; Choi, Im Soo; Lee, Seung Soo; Choi, Tae Jeong; Cho, Kwang Hyun; Park, Byoung Ho; Choy, Yun Ho

    2013-01-01

    The objective of this study was to estimate genetic parameters that are to be used for across-herd genetic evaluations of seed stock pigs at GGP level. Performance data with pedigree information collected from swine breeder farms in Korea were provided by Korea Animal Improvement Association (AIAK). Performance data were composed of final body weights at test days and ultrasound measures of back fat thickness (BF), rib eye area (EMA) and retail cut percentage (RCP). Breeds of swine tested were Landrace, Yorkshire and Duroc. Days to 90 kg body weight (DAYS90) were estimated with linear function of age and ADG calculated from body weights at test days. Ultrasound measures were taken with A-mode ultrasound scanners by trained technicians. Number of performance records after censoring outliers and keeping records pigs only born from year 2000 were of 78,068 Duroc pigs, 101,821 Landrace pigs and 281,421 Yorkshire pigs. Models included contemporary groups defined by the same herd and the same seasons of births of the same year, which was regarded as fixed along with the effect of sex for all traits and body weight at test day as a linear covariate for ultrasound measures. REML estimation was processed with REMLF90 program. Heritability estimates were 0.40, 0.32, 0.21 0.39 for DAYS90, ADG, BF, EMA, RCP, respectively for Duroc population. Respective heritability estimates for Landrace population were 0.43, 0.41, 0.22, and 0.43 and for Yorkshire population were 0.36, 0.38, 0.22, and 0.42. Genetic correlation coefficients of DAYS90 with BF, EMA, or RCP were estimated to be 0.00 to 0.09, −0.15 to −0.25, 0.22 to 0.28, respectively for three breeds populations. Genetic correlation coefficients estimated between BF and EMA was −0.33 to −0.39. Genetic correlation coefficient estimated between BF and RCP was high and negative (−0.78 to −0.85) but the environmental correlation coefficients between these two traits was medium and negative (near −0.35), which describes

  3. Molecular-level variation affects population growth in a butterfly metapopulation.

    PubMed

    Hanski, Ilkka; Saccheri, Ilik

    2006-05-01

    The dynamics of natural populations are thought to be dominated by demographic and environmental processes with little influence of intraspecific genetic variation and natural selection, apart from inbreeding depression possibly reducing population growth in small populations. Here we analyse hundreds of well-characterised local populations in a large metapopulation of the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia), which persists in a balance between stochastic local extinctions and recolonisations in a network of 4,000 discrete habitat patches. We show that the allelic composition of the glycolytic enzyme phosphoglucose isomerase (Pgi) has a significant effect on the growth of local populations, consistent with previously reported effects of allelic variation on flight metabolic performance and fecundity in the Glanville fritillary and Colias butterflies. The strength and the sign of the molecular effect on population growth are sensitive to the ecological context (the area and spatial connectivity of the habitat patches), which affects genotype-specific gene flow and the influence of migration on the dynamics of local populations. The biological significance of the results for Pgi is underscored by lack of any association between population growth and allelic variation at six other loci typed in the same material. In demonstrating, to our knowledge for the first time, that molecular variation in a candidate gene affects population growth, this study challenges the perception that differential performance of individual genotypes, leading to differential fitness, is irrelevant to population dynamics. These results also demonstrate that the spatial configuration of habitat and spatial dynamics of populations contribute to maintenance of Pgi polymorphism in this species.

  4. Inverse problem for the Verhulst equation of limited population growth with discrete experiment data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Azimov, Anvar; Kasenov, Syrym; Nurseitov, Daniyar; Serovajsky, Simon

    2016-08-01

    Verhulst limited growth model with unknown parameters of growth is considered. These parameters are defined by discrete experiment data. This inverse problem is solved with using gradient method with interpolation of data and without it. Approximation of the delta-function is used for the latter case. As an example the bacteria population E.coli is considered.

  5. Rural Renaissance in America? The Revival of Population Growth in Remote Areas.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Morrison, Peter A.; Wheeler, Judith P.

    Presenting narrative and tabular documentation of the revival of population growth in remote, rural areas and the decline of growth in urban areas, this bulletin describes the characteristics of these shifts, considers their possible causes, and suggests some of the problems and potential benefits. Specifically, this report presents the following:…

  6. The Future and Population: What Will a No-Growth Society Be Like? A Teaching Module.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Population Reference Bureau, Inc., Washington, DC.

    This teaching module for high school students and adults examines the future of zero population growth in 26 countries by the year 2000. The module contains an essay for students to read, followed by exercises, activities, and discussion questions based on the essay. Objectives include understanding the components of population change, identifying…

  7. Active population growth and immigration hypotheses in Western Europe.

    PubMed

    Feld, S

    2000-03-01

    The paper examines, in respect of 12 Western European countries over a period of 20 years, the widely held view that any decline in their working population should be offset by greater reliance on immigrant labor. This research, based on demographic projections and forecasts regarding labor market participation rates by age and sex for each of the countries concerned, focuses on the two most likely scenarios. It appears that only Italy will be faced with a fall in its working population. All other western countries will either maintain the same level or, more generally, see their workforce grow substantially. Accordingly, the authors may safely assert that there is no risk of a shortage of workers between now and the year 2020, and that an increasing supply of labor will render reliance on a greater influx of immigrant workers unnecessary. The second part analyses changes in the structure of the demand for labor. The authors deal chiefly with the phenomenon of the concentration of foreign manpower in each sector, its flexibility and mobility in a context of unemployment, as well as the impact of new technologies and globalization on the main determinants of international migration of labor.

  8. The between-population genetic architecture of growth, maturation, and plasticity in Atlantic salmon.

    PubMed

    Debes, Paul Vincent; Fraser, Dylan John; Yates, Matthew; Hutchings, Jeffrey A

    2014-04-01

    The between-population genetic architecture for growth and maturation has not been examined in detail for many animal species despite its central importance in understanding hybrid fitness. We studied the genetic architecture of population divergence in: (i) maturation probabilities at the same age; (ii) size at age and growth, while accounting for maturity status and sex; and (iii) growth plasticity in response to environmental factors, using divergent wild and domesticated Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar). Our work examined two populations and their multigenerational hybrids in a common experimental arrangement in which salinity and quantity of suspended sediments were manipulated to mimic naturally occurring environmental variation. Average specific growth rates across environments differed among crosses, maturity groups, and cross-by-maturity groups, but a growth-rate reduction in the presence of suspended sediments was equal for all groups. Our results revealed both additive and nonadditive outbreeding effects for size at age and for growth rates that differed with life stage, as well as the presence of different sex- and size-specific maturation probabilities between populations. The major implication of our work is that estimates of the genetic architecture of growth and maturation can be biased if one does not simultaneously account for temporal changes in growth and for different maturation probabilities between populations. Namely, these correlated traits interact differently within each population and between sexes and among generations, due to nonadditive effects and a level of independence in the genetic control for traits. Our results emphasize the challenges to investigating and predicting phenotypic changes resulting from between-population outbreeding.

  9. The Between-Population Genetic Architecture of Growth, Maturation, and Plasticity in Atlantic Salmon

    PubMed Central

    Debes, Paul Vincent; Fraser, Dylan John; Yates, Matthew; Hutchings, Jeffrey A.

    2014-01-01

    The between-population genetic architecture for growth and maturation has not been examined in detail for many animal species despite its central importance in understanding hybrid fitness. We studied the genetic architecture of population divergence in: (i) maturation probabilities at the same age; (ii) size at age and growth, while accounting for maturity status and sex; and (iii) growth plasticity in response to environmental factors, using divergent wild and domesticated Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar). Our work examined two populations and their multigenerational hybrids in a common experimental arrangement in which salinity and quantity of suspended sediments were manipulated to mimic naturally occurring environmental variation. Average specific growth rates across environments differed among crosses, maturity groups, and cross-by-maturity groups, but a growth-rate reduction in the presence of suspended sediments was equal for all groups. Our results revealed both additive and nonadditive outbreeding effects for size at age and for growth rates that differed with life stage, as well as the presence of different sex- and size-specific maturation probabilities between populations. The major implication of our work is that estimates of the genetic architecture of growth and maturation can be biased if one does not simultaneously account for temporal changes in growth and for different maturation probabilities between populations. Namely, these correlated traits interact differently within each population and between sexes and among generations, due to nonadditive effects and a level of independence in the genetic control for traits. Our results emphasize the challenges to investigating and predicting phenotypic changes resulting from between-population outbreeding. PMID:24473933

  10. A new ODE tumor growth modeling based on tumor population dynamics

    SciTech Connect

    Oroji, Amin; Omar, Mohd bin; Yarahmadian, Shantia

    2015-10-22

    In this paper a new mathematical model for the population of tumor growth treated by radiation is proposed. The cells dynamics population in each state and the dynamics of whole tumor population are studied. Furthermore, a new definition of tumor lifespan is presented. Finally, the effects of two main parameters, treatment parameter (q), and repair mechanism parameter (r) on tumor lifespan are probed, and it is showed that the change in treatment parameter (q) highly affects the tumor lifespan.

  11. [Population growth in Plasencia in the nineteenth century].

    PubMed

    Sanchez De La Calle, J A

    1993-01-01

    "Using sources such as parish registers, civil registers, records of the town hall, inquiries, [censuses] and list of inhabitants, we have been able to confirm the existence of four different stages in the demographic development of Plasencia [Spain]. The first one, between 1800 and 1815, is characterized by a scarce growing.... The second one, between 1816 and 1839, shows a certain increase which is restrained at the end of the 30s because of some epidemic illness (cholera and various fevers). The period between 1840 and 1871 is a stage of slow growing due to many subsistence crises. The fourth stage, 1872-1899, continues the same outline with a great rising of mortality, which does not prevent the rising of population in Plasencia caused by a high rate of inmigration." (SUMMARY IN ENG AND FRE)

  12. Human fetal weight and placental weight growth curves. A mathematical analysis from a population at sea level.

    PubMed

    Bonds, D R; Mwape, B; Kumar, S; Gabbe, S G

    1984-01-01

    A mathematical analysis of human fetal and placental growth curves was made on data collected prospectively from a population at sea level. Both the fetal and placental growth curves can best be described by a form of the logistic equation inhibited growth model. The fetal growth rate reaches its maximum approximately 4 weeks after the placental growth rate has reached its maximum. Growth rate constants were calculated for several populations at various altitudes. PMID:6733167

  13. [Is it necessary to control the population growth of national minorities].

    PubMed

    Tian, X Y

    1981-02-01

    In the process of Socialist construction and modernization, the development of the population of national minorities deserves our attention because it is directly related to the economic and cultural development in the areas inhabited by such national minorities, and it has a great impact on the welfare and future of those people. Moreover, the population growth of the minorities is a key factor in the national population control strategy. A rapid population growth among the minorities has caused serious problems in distribution of farm land and food supply, low personal income, a rise in the unemployment rate, and a rise in the illiteracy rate. This has prevented a rise in the living standard among the minority population. In order to prevent and solve population problems among the minorities, we must take appropriate measures according to local conditions to control population increases. Through popularization of education, population growth may be put under control. For those people who volunteer to practice family planning, the government should provide all kinds of assistance. At the same time, an effort is needed to introduce the necessity of improving birth quality, to popularize new methods of child birth, and to develop health and medical care for the general public, so that the quality of the minority population may be gradually improved.

  14. The effects of economic and population growth on national saving and inequality.

    PubMed

    Deaton, A S; Paxson, C H

    1997-02-01

    This is a progress report on ongoing research into the effects of economic and population growth on national saving rates and inequality. The theoretical basis for the investigation is the life cycle model of saving and inequality. We report evidence that is conditional on the validity of the model, as well as evidence that casts doubt on it. Using time series of cross-sectional household surveys from Taiwan, Thailand, Britain, and the United States, we show that it is possible to force a life cycle interpretation on the data on consumption, income, and saving, but that the evidence is not consistent with large rate-of-growth effects, whereby economic and population growth enhances rates of national saving. The well-established cross-country link between economic growth and saving cannot be attributed to life cycle saving, nor will changes in economic or population growth exert large effects on saving within individual countries. There is evidence in favor of the life cycle model's prediction that within-cohort inequality of consumption and of total income--though not necessarily inequality of earnings--should increase with the age of the cohort. Decreases in the population growth rate redistribute population toward older, more unequal, cohorts, and can increase national inequality. We provide calculations on the magnitude of these effects.

  15. The effect of acceleration on the growth and shedding of laminar separation bubbles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bhattacharya, Samik; Rival, David

    2015-11-01

    It has been observed that when a laminar boundary layer separates, the shear layer undergoes transition to turbulence and subsequently reattaches to form a laminar separation bubble (LSB). In this work, a SD7003 airfoil, held at an angle of attack of 8 degree, is towed with different acceleration profiles starting from rest. The separation region is then analyzed with time-resolved, planar PIV at short convective times during the initial acceleration phase. The aim of this work is to characterize the variation in size and shedding frequency of the laminar separation bubble with increasing acceleration. We show that the formation and shedding process in the LSB depends on the rate of vorticity-containing mass transported by the separated shear layer. Consequently, any changes in the structure of the shear layer affect the formation of the LSB downstream. Finally, attempts are also made to characterize the shedding frequency of the bubble with increasing acceleration. Here the unsteadiness of the LSB is found to be closely linked to the degree of boundary-layer acceleration on the airfoil surface.

  16. Accelerated crossing of fitness valleys through division of labor and cheating in asexual populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Komarova, Natalia L.; Urwin, Erin; Wodarz, Dominik

    2012-12-01

    Complex traits can require the accumulation of multiple mutations that are individually deleterious. Their evolution requires a fitness valley to be crossed, which can take relatively long time spans. A new evolutionary mechanism is described that accelerates the emergence of complex phenotypes, based on a ``division of labor'' game and the occurrence of cheaters. If each intermediate mutation leads to a product that can be shared with others, the complex type can arise relatively quickly as an emergent property among cooperating individuals, without any given individual having to accumulate all mutations. Moreover, the emergence of cheaters that destroy cooperative interactions can lead to the emergence of individuals that have accumulated all necessary mutations on a time scale that is significantly faster than observed in the absence of cooperation and cheating. Application of this mechanism to somatic and microbial evolution is discussed, including evolutionary processes in tumors, biofilms, and viral infections.

  17. Population growth rate determinants for Arbacia: Evaluating ecological relevance of toxicity test endpoints

    SciTech Connect

    Nacci, D.; Gleason, T.; Munns, W.R. Jr.

    1995-12-31

    A population dynamics model for the sea urchin, Arbacia punctulata, was recently developed incorporating life stage endpoints frequently measured in acute and chronic toxicity studies. Model elasticity analysis was used to demonstrate that population growth rate was influenced most by adult survival and least by early life stage success, calling into question the ecological relevance of results from standardized Arbacia fertilization and larval development toxicity tests. Two approaches were used to continue this evaluation. Actual and hypothetical dose-response curves for toxicant exposures over multiple life stages were used to evaluate contributions to population growth rate of stage-specific toxicant effects. Additionally, relationships between critical life stages were developed from laboratory data for Arbacia. The results of this analysis underscore the importance of understanding both endpoint sensitivity to toxicants and sensitivity of population growth rate to test endpoints in determining the ecological relevance of toxicity tests results.

  18. Increased human occupation and agricultural development accelerates the population contraction of an estuarine delphinid

    PubMed Central

    Lin, Wenzhi; Karczmarski, Leszek; Xia, Jia; Zhang, Xiyang; Yu, Xinjian; Wu, Yuping

    2016-01-01

    Over the past few thousand years, human development and population expansion in southern China have led to local extirpation and population contraction of many terrestrial animals. At what extent this early human-induced environmental change has also affected coastal marine species remains poorly known. We investigated the demographic history of the Indo-Pacific humpback dolphin (Sousa chinensis) in the Pearl River Delta (PRD); an obligatory inshore species known for its susceptibility to anthropogenic impacts in one of China’s most developed coastal regions. Although the deltaic evolution of PRD has been influenced by climate since the Holocene, ~74% reduction of the dolphin’s effective population size occurred within the last 2000 years, consistent with ~61% habitat contraction during this period. This considerable and recent population contraction may have been due to land use practices and deforestation in the upper/middle Pearl River region, all leading to increasing sedimentation rate in the estuarine area. As anthropogenic impacts within the drainage of Pearl River affected a vast area, coastal dolphins and large terrestrial mammals in southern China may share a similar demographic history, whilst the demographic and biogeographic history of the PRD humpback dolphins may be symptomatic of similar processes that this species may have undergone elsewhere in the region. PMID:27759106

  19. Coxsackievirus B3 adapted to growth in RD cells binds to decay-accelerating factor (CD55).

    PubMed Central

    Bergelson, J M; Mohanty, J G; Crowell, R L; St John, N F; Lublin, D M; Finberg, R W

    1995-01-01

    A coxsackievirus B3 (CB3) isolate adapted to growth in RD cells shows an alteration in cell tropism as a result of its capacity to bind a 70-kDa cell surface molecule expressed on these cells. We now show that this molecule is the complement regulatory protein, decay-accelerating factor (DAF) (CD55). Anti-DAF antibodies prevented CB3 attachment to the cell surface. Radiolabeled CB3 adapted to growth in RD cells bound to CHO cells transfected with human DAF, whereas CB3 (strain Nancy), the parental strain, did not bind to DAF transfectants. These results indicate that growth of CB3 in RD cells selected for a virus strain that uses DAF for cell surface attachment. PMID:7531780

  20. The ocean blues. Navigating the course of population growth.

    PubMed

    Sarkar, D

    1996-01-01

    Oceans and their role in environmental balance are discussed in this article. Coastal waters within 200 miles from land are identified as providing over half the ocean's total biological productivity and supply of nearly all of the world's fish catch. Almost 3.6 billion people live in coastal areas or within 90 miles of coastal waters, which accounts for about 66% of world population. Coastal land areas account for about 8% of the earth's total land area. 8.3 billion people are expected by 2025 to live in coastal areas. 9 of the 10 largest cities in the world are located on coasts. 7 of the 10 largest cities in the US are coastal cities (54% of the US population or 142 million people). Almost all of the marine pollution is derived from land-based sources, such as sewage, nutrients, sediments, litter, and plastics. Mangroves in coastal waters have been reduced by about 50% to about 90,000 sq. miles worldwide. Global consumption of fish is responsible for depleting fish supplies and the loss of mangroves due to aquaculture of shrimp or other seafood. The US National Fisheries Service is cited for its report that 67 of the 156 fish stocks are overexploited. About 1 billion people, mostly in developing countries, rely on fish as their main food source. If imbalances in demand and supply continue, the rising price of fish and seafood will threaten the lives of about 1 billion or more people. Numerous international and national actions have been taken in order to protect supplies and reduce pollution. Sound resource management practices need to be instituted. Small and large fisheries can begin by reducing the 27 million tons of unintentional fish captures and by converting 29 million tons of fish used for animal feed into food for human consumption. Management of US coastal lands in most coastal states, with the exception of California and Rhode Island, is weak. Maryland has adopted a community-level approach for management of the Chesapeake Bay. Other environmental

  1. A stochastic population model to evaluate Moapa dace (Moapa coriacea) population growth under alternative management scenarios

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Perry, Russell W.; Jones, Edward; Scoppettone, G. Gary

    2015-07-14

    Increasing or decreasing the total carrying capacity of all stream segments resulted in changes in equilibrium population size that were directly proportional to the change in capacity. However, changes in carrying capacity to some stream segments but not others could result in disproportionate changes in equilibrium population sizes by altering density-dependent movement and survival in the stream network. These simulations show how our IBM can provide a useful management tool for understanding the effect of restoration actions or reintroductions on carrying capacity, and, in tur

  2. A stochastic population model to evaluate Moapa dace (Moapa coriacea) population growth under alternative management scenarios

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Perry, Russell W.; Jones, Edward; Scoppettone, G. Gary

    2015-07-14

    Increasing or decreasing the total carrying capacity of all stream segments resulted in changes in equilibrium population size that were directly proportional to the change in capacity. However, changes in carrying capacity to some stream segments but not others could result in disproportionate changes in equilibrium population sizes by altering density-dependent movement and survival in the stream network. These simulations show how our IBM can provide a useful management tool for understanding the effect of restoration actions or reintroductions on carrying capacity, and, in turn, how these changes affect Moapa dace abundance. Such tools are critical for devising management strategies to achieve recovery goals.

  3. Adult survival and population growth rate in Colorado big brown bats (Eptesicus fuscus)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    O'Shea, T.J.; Ellison, L.E.; Stanley, T.R.

    2011-01-01

    We studied adult survival and population growth at multiple maternity colonies of big brown bats (Eptesicus fuscus) in Fort Collins, Colorado. We investigated hypotheses about survival using information-theoretic methods and mark-recapture analyses based on passive detection of adult females tagged with passive integrated transponders. We constructed a 3-stage life-history matrix model to estimate population growth rate (??) and assessed the relative importance of adult survival and other life-history parameters to population growth through elasticity and sensitivity analysis. Annual adult survival at 5 maternity colonies monitored from 2001 to 2005 was estimated at 0.79 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] = 0.77-0.82). Adult survival varied by year and roost, with low survival during an extreme drought year, a finding with negative implications for bat populations because of the likelihood of increasing drought in western North America due to global climate change. Adult survival during winter was higher than in summer, and mean life expectancies calculated from survival estimates were lower than maximum longevity records. We modeled adult survival with recruitment parameter estimates from the same population. The study population was growing (?? = 1.096; 95% CI = 1.057-1.135). Adult survival was the most important demographic parameter for population growth. Growth clearly had the highest elasticity to adult survival, followed by juvenile survival and adult fecundity (approximately equivalent in rank). Elasticity was lowest for fecundity of yearlings. The relative importances of the various life-history parameters for population growth rate are similar to those of large mammals. ?? 2011 American Society of Mammalogists.

  4. The influence of acceleration forces on dendritic growth and grain structure

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Johnston, M. H.; Parr, R. A.

    1982-01-01

    The results of experiments on the tin-15 wt pct lead system are presented, showing the effects on microstructure of solidification in the presence of acceleration forces from 0.0001 to 5 g for three cooling rates. An increase in the acceleration level is shown to drive fluid flow and cause dendrite remelting, fragmentation, and macrosegregation. The cooling rate impacts the final structure through its control of dendrite arm spacings and permeability to fluid flow. At the low (0.0001 g) acceleration, dendrite arm spacings deviated from the predicted relationship to cooling rate. An explanation for this anomaly is given which considers the temperature and concentration gradients in the low-gravity environment.

  5. Sexual Reproduction in a Simple Growth Population Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lemos, Carlos Gentil Oro; Santos, Marcio

    2012-05-01

    One of the most important characteristics in the survival of a species is related to the kind of reproduction responsible for the offspring generation. However, only in the last years the role played by sexual reproduction has been investigated. Then, for a better understanding of this kind of process we introduce, in this work, a surface reaction model that describes the role of the sexual reproduction. In our model two different elements of the species, representing male and female, can interact to reproduce a new element. The sex of this new element is chosen with a given probability and in order to take into account the mortality rate we introduce another kind of individual. The value of the spatial density of this element remains constant during the time evolution of the system. The model is studied using Monte Carlo simulations and mean field approximation. Depending on the values of the control parameters of the model, the system can attain two stationary states: In one of them the population survives and in the other it can be extinguished. Besides, accordingly to our results, the phase diagram of the model shows a discontinuous transition between these two states.

  6. The many growth rates and elasticities of populations in random environments.

    PubMed

    Tuljapurkar, Shripad; Horvitz, Carol C; Pascarella, John B

    2003-10-01

    Despite considerable interest in the dynamics of populations subject to temporally varying environments, alternate population growth rates and their sensitivities remain incompletely understood. For a Markovian environment, we compare and contrast the meanings of the stochastic growth rate (lambdaS), the growth rate of average population (lambdaM), the growth rate for average transition rates (lambdaA), and the growth rate of an aggregate represented by a megamatrix (shown here to equal lambdaM). We distinguish these growth rates by the averages that define them. We illustrate our results using data on an understory shrub in a hurricane-disturbed landscape, employing a range of hurricane frequencies. We demonstrate important differences among growth rates: lambdaS lambdaM. We show that stochastic elasticity, ESij, and megamatrix elasticity, EMij, describe a complex perturbation of both means and variances of rates by the same proportion. Megamatrix elasticities respond slightly and stochastic elasticities respond strongly to changing the frequency of disturbance in the habitat (in our example, the frequency of hurricanes). The elasticity EAij of lambdaA does not predict changes in the other elasticities. Because ES, although commonly utilized, is difficult to interpret, we introduce elasticities with a more direct interpretation: ESmu for perturbations of means and ESsigma for variances. We argue that a fundamental tool for studying selection pressures in varying environments is the response of growth rate to vital rates in all habitat states.

  7. Current demographics suggest future energy supplies will be inadequate to slow human population growth.

    PubMed

    DeLong, John P; Burger, Oskar; Hamilton, Marcus J

    2010-10-05

    Influential demographic projections suggest that the global human population will stabilize at about 9-10 billion people by mid-century. These projections rest on two fundamental assumptions. The first is that the energy needed to fuel development and the associated decline in fertility will keep pace with energy demand far into the future. The second is that the demographic transition is irreversible such that once countries start down the path to lower fertility they cannot reverse to higher fertility. Both of these assumptions are problematic and may have an effect on population projections. Here we examine these assumptions explicitly. Specifically, given the theoretical and empirical relation between energy-use and population growth rates, we ask how the availability of energy is likely to affect population growth through 2050. Using a cross-country data set, we show that human population growth rates are negatively related to per-capita energy consumption, with zero growth occurring at ∼13 kW, suggesting that the global human population will stop growing only if individuals have access to this amount of power. Further, we find that current projected future energy supply rates are far below the supply needed to fuel a global demographic transition to zero growth, suggesting that the predicted leveling-off of the global population by mid-century is unlikely to occur, in the absence of a transition to an alternative energy source. Direct consideration of the energetic constraints underlying the demographic transition results in a qualitatively different population projection than produced when the energetic constraints are ignored. We suggest that energetic constraints be incorporated into future population projections.

  8. Low energy emulsion-based fermentation enabling accelerated methane mass transfer and growth of poly(3-hydroxybutyrate)-accumulating methanotrophs.

    PubMed

    Myung, Jaewook; Kim, Minkyu; Pan, Ming; Criddle, Craig S; Tang, Sindy K Y

    2016-05-01

    Methane is a low-cost feedstock for the production of polyhydroxyalkanoate biopolymers, but methanotroph fermentations are limited by the low solubility of methane in water. To enhance mass transfer of methane to water, vigorous mixing or agitation is typically used, which inevitably increases power demand and operational costs. This work presents a method for accelerating methane mass transfer without agitation by growing methanotrophs in water-in-oil emulsions, where the oil has a higher solubility for methane than water does. In systems without agitation, the growth rate of methanotrophs in emulsions is five to six times that of methanotrophs in the medium-alone incubations. Within seven days, cells within the emulsions accumulate up to 67 times more P3HB than cells in the medium-alone incubations. This is achieved due to the increased interfacial area of the aqueous phase, and accelerated methane diffusion through the oil phase. PMID:26896714

  9. Toxicology across scales: Cell population growth in vitro predicts reduced fish growth

    PubMed Central

    Stadnicka-Michalak, Julita; Schirmer, Kristin; Ashauer, Roman

    2015-01-01

    Environmental risk assessment of chemicals is essential but often relies on ethically controversial and expensive methods. We show that tests using cell cultures, combined with modeling of toxicological effects, can replace tests with juvenile fish. Hundreds of thousands of fish at this developmental stage are annually used to assess the influence of chemicals on growth. Juveniles are more sensitive than adult fish, and their growth can affect their chances to survive and reproduce. Thus, to reduce the number of fish used for such tests, we propose a method that can quantitatively predict chemical impact on fish growth based on in vitro data. Our model predicts reduced fish growth in two fish species in excellent agreement with measured in vivo data of two pesticides. This promising step toward alternatives to fish toxicity testing is simple, inexpensive, and fast and only requires in vitro data for model calibration. PMID:26601229

  10. Population growth and social change: a note on rural society.

    PubMed

    Barnabas, A P

    1974-01-01

    Changing social conditons, particularly in rural areas, often create a feeling of normlessness. For such major changes as family limitation to be accepted in rural India, those involved must understand the total social change which will be necessary. In rural areas today the desire for motherhood is a matter of being accepted. A barren woman suffers social ostracism; folk tales tell of even animals refusing to eat a meal prepared by a barren woman. A women with a large family is particularly respected, especially if they are well provided for. The other reasons given for having large numbers of children are family survival, care in old age, increase in family income, to get more share in the property, to follow the community pattern, and to make the home happier. There is a rationale for most of these. High infant and child mortality account for the family survival, The only security the parents have is the children. More children increase the family share in a joint-family land-holding. Raising the age at marriage for girls has often been suggested as a population control measure, but what is the girl to do until 19? Rural parents do not feel their obligations to their daughter have been discharged until she is married and it is the parents who are blamed if no arrangments have been made. The idea of her becoming educated is not socially acceptable and rural boys are reluctant to marry educated girls. India's values pertaining to divorce, widow remarriage, and abortion are already undergoing change. Migration to the cities is bringing about change. Looking to the cities may bring about modernization, but the fact that the young men are the ones moving away is leading a lack of leadership in the villages. To bring about the social conditions favorable to modernization agriculture should be modernized, reducing the need for labor; factories should be built in rural areas to take up this slack in agricultural employment, and perhaps it would become acceptable for

  11. Modeling circadian clock-cell cycle interaction effects on cell population growth rates.

    PubMed

    El Cheikh, R; Bernard, S; El Khatib, N

    2014-12-21

    The circadian clock and the cell cycle are two tightly coupled oscillators. Recent analytical studies have shown counter-intuitive effects of circadian gating of the cell cycle on growth rates of proliferating cells which cannot be explained by a molecular model or a population model alone. In this work, we present a combined molecular-population model that studies how coupling the circadian clock to the cell cycle, through the protein WEE1, affects a proliferating cell population. We show that the cell cycle can entrain to the circadian clock with different rational period ratios and characterize multiple domains of entrainment. We show that coupling increases the growth rate for autonomous periods of the cell cycle around 24 h and above 48 h. We study the effect of mutation of circadian genes on the growth rate of cells and show that disruption of the circadian clock can lead to abnormal proliferation. Particularly, we show that Cry 1, Cry 2 mutations decrease the growth rate of cells, Per 2 mutation enhances it and Bmal 1 knockout increases it for autonomous periods of the cell cycle less than 21 h and decreases it elsewhere. Combining a molecular model to a population model offers new insight on the influence of the circadian clock on the growth of a cell population. This can help chronotherapy which takes benefits of physiological rhythms to improve anti-cancer efficacy and tolerance to drugs by administering treatments at a specific time of the day.

  12. Comparison of individual-based modeling and population approaches for prediction of foodborne pathogens growth.

    PubMed

    Augustin, Jean-Christophe; Ferrier, Rachel; Hezard, Bernard; Lintz, Adrienne; Stahl, Valérie

    2015-02-01

    Individual-based modeling (IBM) approach combined with the microenvironment modeling of vacuum-packed cold-smoked salmon was more effective to describe the variability of the growth of a few Listeria monocytogenes cells contaminating irradiated salmon slices than the traditional population models. The IBM approach was particularly relevant to predict the absence of growth in 25% (5 among 20) of artificially contaminated cold-smoked salmon samples stored at 8 °C. These results confirmed similar observations obtained with smear soft cheese (Ferrier et al., 2013). These two different food models were used to compare the IBM/microscale and population/macroscale modeling approaches in more global exposure and risk assessment frameworks taking into account the variability and/or the uncertainty of the factors influencing the growth of L. monocytogenes. We observed that the traditional population models significantly overestimate exposure and risk estimates in comparison to IBM approach when contamination of foods occurs with a low number of cells (<100 per serving). Moreover, the exposure estimates obtained with the population model were characterized by a great uncertainty. The overestimation was mainly linked to the ability of IBM to predict no growth situations rather than the consideration of microscale environment. On the other hand, when the aim of quantitative risk assessment studies is only to assess the relative impact of changes in control measures affecting the growth of foodborne bacteria, the two modeling approach gave similar results and the simplest population approach was suitable.

  13. Age, growth and mortality in four populations of the boring bivalve Lithophaga patagonica from Argentina

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bagur, María; Richardson, Christopher A.; Gutiérrez, Jorge L.; Arribas, Lorena P.; Doldan, M. Socorro; Palomo, M. Gabriela

    2013-08-01

    The boring bivalve Lithophaga patagonica (d'Orbigny, 1842) is a locally abundant inhabitant of hard substrata in the coastal waters of the Southwestern Atlantic. In this paper, we describe the growth, age and mortality of three intertidal rock-boring populations of L. patagonica and one subtidal oyster shell (Ostrea puelchana) boring population. An analysis of acetate peel replicas of shell sections showed that L. patagonica slows down its growth during autumn-winter, which leads to changes in the direction and rate of shell deposition and the formation of conspicuous annual (low temperature induced) clefts in the shell margin. Cleft counts and Von Bertalanffy growth analyses indicated that maximum age varies from 4 years in the oyster-boring population to 13 years in a rock-boring one (longevity estimates varied between 6.5 and 15 years, respectively). Maximum asymptotic length (L∞) and Von Bertalanffy growth constant (K) were also variable between populations (L∞ between 14.76 and 36.95 mm and K from 0.20 to 0.90 yr- 1 respectively). Mortality rates were higher at the two southernmost populations. Type (rock vs. oyster), composition and hardness of the substrata are likely the main factors controlling the observed differences between populations.

  14. Demography, population growth, and population policy in China: a brief history from 1940 to the present.

    PubMed

    Chu, D S

    1984-01-01

    For some 3 decades after the founding of the People's Republic of China, Chinese studies have had to life with the paradoxical situation in which the abundance of population on the mainland, ever increasing in number predictably and inexorably, was couples with a scarcity of data about the nature and patterns of demographic change, ever harder to come by. As increasing amounts of new demographic data from China, sometimes produced jointly between Chinese and foreign researchers, become available, it is clear that previous methods, technics, and styles of analyses habituated by 3 decades of minimal data from China will become inadequate and obsolete. In 1957 Ma Yinchu put forth 3 main proposals for population control: 1) to conduct another national census to gain more demographic statistics, 2) to advocate widespread public education to inform people of the importance and practical knowledge of birth control combined with propaganda on the disadvantages of early marriages and the benefits of late marriage, and 3) family planning, by popular use of contraception, is the most effective method for population control. It is argued that 1) the years 1950-1958 consisted of a period of fermentation and preparation, 2) the post-leap years, 1959-1965, constituted a period of trial implementation of emerging policies, 3) 1966-1971 was an uncontrolled period, and 4) only the years after 1971 may be viewed as a period during which serious implementation took place. Overall, the selections in this volume are intended to inform both China scholars and social scientists interested in recent developments in Chinese population studies.

  15. Accelerated Growth Rate and Increased Drought Stress Resilience of the Model Grass Brachypodium distachyon Colonized by Bacillus subtilis B26

    PubMed Central

    Charron, Jean-Benoit; Vali, Hojatollah; Bertrand, Annick; Jabaji, Suha

    2015-01-01

    Plant growth-promoting bacteria (PGB) induce positive effects in plants, for instance, increased growth and reduced abiotic stresses susceptibility. The mechanisms by which these bacteria impact the host plant are numerous, diverse and often specific. Here, we studied the agronomical, molecular and biochemical effects of the endophytic PGB Bacillus subtilis B26 on the full life cycle of Brachypodium distachyon Bd21, an established model species for functional genomics in cereal crops and temperate grasses. Inoculation of Brachypodium with B. subtilis strain B26 increased root and shoot weights, accelerated growth rate and seed yield as compared to control plants. B. subtilis strain B26 efficiently colonized the plant and was recovered from roots, stems and blades as well as seeds of Brachypodium, indicating that the bacterium is able to migrate, spread systemically inside the plant, establish itself in the aerial plant tissues and organs, and is vertically transmitted to seeds. The presence of B. subtilis strain B26 in the seed led to systemic colonization of the next generation of Brachypodium plants. Inoculated Brachypodium seedlings and mature plants exposed to acute and chronic drought stress minimized the phenotypic effect of drought compared to plants not harbouring the bacterium. Protection from the inhibitory effects of drought by the bacterium was linked to upregulation of the drought-response genes, DREB2B-like, DHN3-like and LEA-14-A-like and modulation of the DNA methylation genes, MET1B-like, CMT3-like and DRM2-like, that regulate the process. Additionally, total soluble sugars and starch contents increased in stressed inoculated plants, a biochemical indication of drought tolerance. In conclusion, we show a single inoculation of Brachypodium with a PGB affected the whole growth cycle of the plant, accelerating its growth rates, shortening its vegetative period, and alleviating drought stress effects. These effects are relevant to grasses and cereal

  16. Respective impact of climate and fisheries on the growth of an albatross population.

    PubMed

    Rolland, V; Nevoux, M; Barbraud, C; Weimerskirch, H

    2009-07-01

    Climate and human activities such as fisheries impact many animal species. However, the demographic processes through which the population vital rates are affected, and the sensitivity of their growth rates, are poorly understood. The Black-browed Albatross, Thalassarche melanophrys, is a long-lived threatened seabird species. Previous studies have shown that the adult survival and breeding success of the population breeding at Kerguelen are affected by sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) during both the breeding and the nonbreeding season, and by tuna long-lining in Tasmanian waters through bycatch mortality. Here, using long-term demographic data from a Black-browed Albatross colony monitored for 26 years at Kerguelen, we estimate all demographic parameters from early to adult stages of the life cycle in order to build a fully parameterized population model and predict population growth rates under several scenarios of climate and fishing effort. The observed population growth rate (1.003) indicates that the population was stable or slightly increasing, and our population model gives a close estimate of 1.008. Population growth rate is more sensitive to survival of experienced breeders and accordingly to a change in SSTA during incubation and to tuna long-lining effort (both affecting survival of experienced breeders) than to other demographic parameters/environmental covariates. The population stability results from multiple factors and complex relationships between demographic parameters and environmental conditions, and therefore population equilibrium is precarious. If fishing effort remains stable at its current level and positive SSTA increase, or inversely if fishing effort decreases and SSTA remain similar to present values, then the population would increase. However, if fishing effort increases by 20% (i.e., to 40 million hooks) on the wintering grounds, without any change in SSTA, then the population would decrease at 0.9% per year. If fishing

  17. [A brief discussion on the effect of religion and feudal superstitions on China's population growth].

    PubMed

    Chen, G

    1983-05-29

    According to Marxism, population development is subject to the determination of production means under certain social and historical conditions, but it is also influenced by ideology, religions, and other factors. China is a country with numerous religions and traditional superstitions. Their impact on China's population growth cannot be underestimated. All religions and feudal superstitions have a role in the increase of the population, and they oppose birth control and abortion. Similarly, traditional feudal concepts of having more children for good fortune, ancestral worship, and filial piety also encouraged early marriage and having more children, and they have contributed to population growth. On the contrary, "individualism" practiced by Buddhist monks and nuns, the "sacred war" believed by Islamic people, and the offering of human sacrifices by many primitive religions, and the murdering of baby twins have served to reduce the population. Most of the religions and feudal superstitions are in favor of increasing the population. The popularity of Buddhism in the past was caused by an oversupply of the labor force. Many farmers became Buddhist monks as a way to earn a living. Since liberation, unhealthy religions and feudal superstitions have been prohibited but their everlasting infulence upon the people cannot be ignored. Uncontrolled population growth is harmful to the nation's economy and improvement of people's livelihood. In family planning work, attention should also be given to the prevention of interference from religions and feudal superstitions in people's ideology. PMID:12159370

  18. The contributions of age and sex to variation in common tern population growth rate.

    PubMed

    Ezard, T H G; Becker, P H; Coulson, T

    2006-11-01

    1. The decomposition of population growth rate into contributions from different demographic rates has many applications, ranging from evolutionary biology to conservation and management. Demographic rates with low variance may be pivotal for population persistence, but variable rates can have a dramatic influence on population growth rate. 2. In this study, the mean and variance in population growth rate (lambda) is decomposed into contributions from different ages and demographic rates using prospective and retrospective matrix analyses for male and female components of an increasing common tern (Sterna hirundo) population. 3. Three main results emerged: (1) subadult return was highly influential in prospective and retrospective analyses; (2) different age-classes made different contributions to variation in lambda: older age classes consistently produced offspring whereas young adults performed well only in high quality years; and (3) demographic rate covariation explained a significant proportion of variation in both sexes. A large contribution to lambda did not imply a large contribution to its variation. 4. This decomposition strengthens the argument that the relationship between variation in demographic rates and variation in lambda is complex. Understanding this relationship and its consequences for population persistence and evolutionary change demands closer examination of the lives, and deaths, of the individuals within populations within species.

  19. Survival, Recruitment, and Population Growth Rate of an Important Mesopredator: The Northern Raccoon

    PubMed Central

    Troyer, Elizabeth M.; Cameron Devitt, Susan E.; Sunquist, Melvin E.; Goswami, Varun R.; Oli, Madan K.

    2014-01-01

    Populations of mesopredators (mid-sized mammalian carnivores) are expanding in size and range amid declining apex predator populations and ever-growing human presence, leading to significant ecological impacts. Despite their obvious importance, population dynamics have scarcely been studied for most mesopredator species. Information on basic population parameters and processes under a range of conditions is necessary for managing these species. Here we investigate survival, recruitment, and population growth rate of a widely distributed and abundant mesopredator, the northern raccoon (Procyon lotor), using Pradel’s temporal symmetry models and >6 years of monthly capture-mark-recapture data collected in a protected area. Monthly apparent survival probability was higher for females (0.949, 95% CI = 0.936–0.960) than for males (0.908, 95% CI = 0.893–0.920), while monthly recruitment rate was higher for males (0.091, 95% CI = 0.078–0.106) than for females (0.054, 95% CI = 0.042–0.067). Finally, monthly realized population growth rate was 1.000 (95% CI = 0.996–1.004), indicating that our study population has reached a stable equilibrium in this relatively undisturbed habitat. There was little evidence for substantial temporal variation in population growth rate or its components. Our study is one of the first to quantify survival, recruitment, and realized population growth rate of raccoons using long-term data and rigorous statistical models. PMID:24901349

  20. Sustainability of population growth: a case study of urban settlements in Israel.

    PubMed

    Portnov, B A; Pearlmutter, D

    1997-01-01

    "One of the most sensitive criteria for gauging the degree of socio-economic prosperity of an urban settlement is the ability to sustain stable rates of population growth by attracting newcomers and retaining existing population. The present paper argues that after reaching a particular size (on the average, 20-30,000 residents), urban localities in Israel tend to experience substantial changes in components of their annual population growth. Starting with this inflection point, the growth of settlements gradually becomes less dependent on natural causes (birth and death rates) than on the ability to attract newcomers and retain current residents. On the basis of this conclusion, a strategy of ¿redirecting priorities' to developing the peripheral regions of the country is suggested."

  1. Richards growth model and viability indicators for populations subject to interventions.

    PubMed

    Loibel, Selene; Andrade, Marinho G; do Val, João B R; de Freitas, Alfredo R

    2010-12-01

    In this work we study the problem of modeling identification of a population employing a discrete dynamic model based on the Richards growth model. The population is subjected to interventions due to consumption, such as hunting or farming animals. The model identification allows us to estimate the probability or the average time for a population number to reach a certain level. The parameter inference for these models are obtained with the use of the likelihood profile technique as developed in this paper. The identification method here developed can be applied to evaluate the productivity of animal husbandry or to evaluate the risk of extinction of autochthon populations. It is applied to data of the Brazilian beef cattle herd population, and the the population number to reach a certain goal level is investigated.

  2. The presence of Bt-transgenic oilseed rape in wild mustard populations affects plant growth.

    PubMed

    Liu, Yongbo; Stewart, C Neal; Li, Junsheng; Huang, Hai; Zhang, Xitao

    2015-12-01

    The adventitious presence of transgenic plants in wild plant populations is of ecological and regulatory concern, but the consequences of adventitious presence are not well understood. Here, we introduced Bacillus thuringiensis Cry1Ac (Bt)-transgenic oilseed rape (Bt OSR, Brassica napus) with various frequencies into wild mustard (Brassica juncea) populations. We sought to better understand the adventitious presence of this transgenic insecticidal crop in a wild-relative plant population. We assessed the factors of competition, resource availability and diamondback moth (Plutella xylostella) infestation on plant population dynamics. As expected, Bt OSR performed better than wild mustard in mixed populations under herbivore attack in habitats with enough resources, whereas wild mustard had higher fitness when Bt OSR was rarer in habitats with limited resources. Results suggest that the presence of insect-resistant transgenic plants could decrease the growth of wild mustard and Bt OSR plants and their populations, especially under high herbivore pressure.

  3. The presence of Bt-transgenic oilseed rape in wild mustard populations affects plant growth.

    PubMed

    Liu, Yongbo; Stewart, C Neal; Li, Junsheng; Huang, Hai; Zhang, Xitao

    2015-12-01

    The adventitious presence of transgenic plants in wild plant populations is of ecological and regulatory concern, but the consequences of adventitious presence are not well understood. Here, we introduced Bacillus thuringiensis Cry1Ac (Bt)-transgenic oilseed rape (Bt OSR, Brassica napus) with various frequencies into wild mustard (Brassica juncea) populations. We sought to better understand the adventitious presence of this transgenic insecticidal crop in a wild-relative plant population. We assessed the factors of competition, resource availability and diamondback moth (Plutella xylostella) infestation on plant population dynamics. As expected, Bt OSR performed better than wild mustard in mixed populations under herbivore attack in habitats with enough resources, whereas wild mustard had higher fitness when Bt OSR was rarer in habitats with limited resources. Results suggest that the presence of insect-resistant transgenic plants could decrease the growth of wild mustard and Bt OSR plants and their populations, especially under high herbivore pressure. PMID:26338267

  4. Population growth and development of Liposcelis pearmani (Psocoptera: Liposcelididae) at constant temperatures and relative humidities.

    PubMed

    Aminatou, B A; Gautam, S G; Opit, G P; Talley, J; Shakya, K

    2011-08-01

    Psocids of genus Liposcelis are now considered serious pests of stored products. We investigated the effects of eight temperatures (22.5, 25.0, 27.5, 30.0, 32.5, 35.0, 37.5, and 40.0°C) and four relative humidities (43, 55, 63, and 75%) on population growth and development of the psocid Liposcelis pearmani Lienhard. L. pearmani did not survive at 37.5 and 40.0°C, at all relative humidities tested; at 43% RH, at all temperatures tested; and at 55% RH, at 32.5 and 35°C. The greatest population growth was recorded at 32.5°C and 75% RH (32-fold growth). L. pearmani males have two to four nymphal instars, and the percentages of males with two, three, and four instars were 17, 63, and 20%, respectively. Female L. pearmani have two to five instars, and the percentages of females with two, three, four, and five instars were 5, 39, 55, and 1%, respectively. We developed temperature-dependent development equations for male and female eggs, individual nymphal, combined nymphal, and combined immature stages. Based on 30-d population growth, L. pearmani cannot survive at temperatures >35.0°C; does not thrive at low relative humidities (55%), at temperatures above 25°C; and has a high optimum relative humidity for population growth (75%). Therefore, we expect it to have a more limited distribution compared with other Liposcelis species. These data provide a better understanding of how temperature and RH may influence L. pearmani population dynamics and can be used in population growth models to help develop effective management strategies for this psocid, and to predict its occurrence.

  5. Role of prey and intraspecific density dependence on the population growth of an avian top predator

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fernandez-de-Simon, Javier; Díaz-Ruiz, Francisco; Cirilli, Francesca; Tortosa, Francisco S.; Villafuerte, Rafael; Ferreras, Pablo

    2014-10-01

    Exploring predator-prey systems in diverse ecosystems increases our knowledge about ecological processes. Predator population growth may be positive when conspecific density is low but predators also need areas with prey availability, associated with competition, which increases the risk of suffering losses but stabilises populations. We studied relationships between European rabbits Oryctolagus cuniculus (prey) and adult eagle owls Bubo bubo (predators) in south-western Europe. We assessed models explaining the predator population growth and stability. We estimated the abundance of rabbits and adult eagle owls during three years in eight localities of central-southern Spain. We explored models including rabbit and adult eagle owl abundance, accounting for yearly variations and including the locality as a random variable. We found that population growth of adult eagle owls was positive in situations with low conspecific abundance and tended to be negative but approaching equilibrium in situations of higher conspecific abundance. Population growth was also positively related to previous summer rabbit density when taking into account eagle owl conspecific abundance, possibly indicating that rabbits may support recruitment. Furthermore, abundance stability of adult eagle owls was positively related to previous winter-spring rabbit density, which could suggest predator population stabilisation through quick territory occupation in high-quality areas. These results exemplify the trade-off between prey availability and abundance of adult predators related to population growth and abundance stability in the eagle owl-rabbit system in south-western Europe. Despite rabbits have greatly declined during the last decades and eagle owls locally specialise on them, eagle owls currently have a favourable conservation status. As eagle owls are the only nocturnal raptor with such dependence on rabbits, this could point out that predators may overcome prey decreases in areas with

  6. Influence of plant population and nitrogen-fertilizer at various levels on growth and growth efficiency of maize.

    PubMed

    Tajul, M I; Alam, M M; Hossain, S M M; Naher, K; Rafii, M Y; Latif, M A

    2013-01-01

    Field experiments were conducted to evaluate plant population and N-fertilizer effects on yield and yield components of maize (Zea mays L.). Three levels of plant populations (53000, 66000, and 800,000 plants ha⁻¹ corresponding to spacings of 75 × 25, 60 × 25, and 50 × 25 cm) and 4 doses of N (100, 140, 180, and 220 kg ha⁻¹) were the treatment variables. Results revealed that plant growth, light interception (LI), yield attributes, and grain yield varied significantly due to the variations in population density and N-rates. Crop growth rate (CGR) was the highest with the population of 80,000 ha⁻¹ receiving 220 kg N ha⁻¹, while relative growth rate (RGR) showed an opposite trend of CGR. Light absorption was maximum when most of densely populated plant received the highest amount of N (220 kg N ha⁻¹). Response of soil-plant-analysis development (SPAD) value as well as N-content to N-rates was found significant. Plant height was the maximum at the lowest plant density with the highest amount of N. Plants that received 180 kg N ha⁻¹ with 80,000 plants ha⁻¹ had larger foliage, greater SPAD value, and higher amount of grains cob⁻¹ that contributed to the maximum yield (5.03 t ha⁻¹) and the maximum harvest index (HI) compared to the plants in other treatments.

  7. Influence of plant population and nitrogen-fertilizer at various levels on growth and growth efficiency of maize.

    PubMed

    Tajul, M I; Alam, M M; Hossain, S M M; Naher, K; Rafii, M Y; Latif, M A

    2013-01-01

    Field experiments were conducted to evaluate plant population and N-fertilizer effects on yield and yield components of maize (Zea mays L.). Three levels of plant populations (53000, 66000, and 800,000 plants ha⁻¹ corresponding to spacings of 75 × 25, 60 × 25, and 50 × 25 cm) and 4 doses of N (100, 140, 180, and 220 kg ha⁻¹) were the treatment variables. Results revealed that plant growth, light interception (LI), yield attributes, and grain yield varied significantly due to the variations in population density and N-rates. Crop growth rate (CGR) was the highest with the population of 80,000 ha⁻¹ receiving 220 kg N ha⁻¹, while relative growth rate (RGR) showed an opposite trend of CGR. Light absorption was maximum when most of densely populated plant received the highest amount of N (220 kg N ha⁻¹). Response of soil-plant-analysis development (SPAD) value as well as N-content to N-rates was found significant. Plant height was the maximum at the lowest plant density with the highest amount of N. Plants that received 180 kg N ha⁻¹ with 80,000 plants ha⁻¹ had larger foliage, greater SPAD value, and higher amount of grains cob⁻¹ that contributed to the maximum yield (5.03 t ha⁻¹) and the maximum harvest index (HI) compared to the plants in other treatments. PMID:24163615

  8. The impact of population change on the growth of mega-cities.

    PubMed

    Guest, P

    1994-03-01

    The population dynamics of population growth in mega-cities and the contributions of migration to urban growth are described. The policy implications are identified as the need for a continued emphasis on fertility declines, because reductions will have a beneficial effect on reducing the pace of growth of mega-cities. The short-term goal of policy should be to provide urban contraceptive services to female migrants, who should be targeted specifically as a special group. Natural increase will be the main source of growth of mega-cities, and women who migrated during the 1990s will be a part of that natural increase. Reductions in population growth will make it easier for governments to provide services and to manage the large population size in mega-cities, which will continue to exist as long as economic activities are centralized and economic development promotes urbanization and spatial concentration. The emergence of mega-cities with populations of many millions has been a recent and increasing phenomena. The largest cities in 1980 were Tokyo with 16.9 million followed by New York City with 15.6 million. By 1990, the largest mega-cities were Mexico City with 20.2 million, Tokyo with 18.1 million, Sao Paulo with 17.4 million, and New York with 16.2 million. By the year 2000, the expectation is that Mexico City will have 25.6 million, Sao Paulo 22.1 million, Tokyo 19.0 million, Shanghai 17.0 million, and New York 16.8 million. The rankings will change, but the pattern clearly reflects the growth of mega-cities in developing countries. The age structure of urban populations is conducive to population growth. The main component of urban growth in Asia has been migration. Age structure changes have affected migration and will continue to affect fertility in mega-cities. Mega-cities will attract a young population because of the tourist and personnel services sectors which employ large numbers of young people, because of the demand for educated workers who tend to

  9. Effects of recruitment, growth, and exploitation on walleye population size structure in northern Wisconsin lakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hansen, Michael J.; Nate, Nancy A.

    2014-01-01

    We evaluated the dynamics of walleye Sander vitreus population size structure, as indexed by the proportional size distribution (PSD) of quality-length fish, in Escanaba Lake during 1967–2003 and in 204 other lakes in northern Wisconsin during 1990–2011. We estimated PSD from angler-caught walleyes in Escanaba Lake and from spring electrofishing in 204 other lakes, and then related PSD to annual estimates of recruitment to age-3, length at age 3, and annual angling exploitation rate. In Escanaba Lake during 1967–2003, annual estimates of PSD were highly dynamic, growth (positively) explained 35% of PSD variation, recruitment explained only 3% of PSD variation, and exploitation explained only 7% of PSD variation. In 204 other northern Wisconsin lakes during 1990–2011, PSD varied widely among lakes, recruitment (negatively) explained 29% of PSD variation, growth (positively) explained 21% of PSD variation, and exploitation explained only 4% of PSD variation. We conclude that population size structure was most strongly driven by recruitment and growth, rather than exploitation, in northern Wisconsin walleye populations. Studies of other species over wide spatial and temporal ranges of recruitment, growth, and mortality are needed to determine which dynamic rate most strongly influences population size structure of other species. Our findings indicate a need to be cautious about assuming exploitation is a strong driver of walleye population size structure.

  10. Causes of mortality in California sea otters during periods of population growth and decline

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Estes, J.A.; Hatfield, B.B.; Ralls, K.; Ames, J.

    2003-01-01

    Elevated mortality appears to be the main reason for both sluggish growth and periods of decline in the threatened California sea otter population. We assessed causes of mortality from salvage records of 3,105 beach-cast carcasses recovered from 1968 through 1999, contrasting two periods of growth with two periods of decline. Overall, an estimated 40%-60% of the deaths were not recovered and 70% of the recovered carcasses died from unknown causes. Nonetheless, several common patterns were evident in the salvage records during the periods of population decline. These included greater percentages of (1) prime age animals (3-10 yr), (2) carcasses killed by great white shark attacks, (3) carcasses recovered in spring and summer, and (4) carcasses for which the cause of death was unknown. Neither sex composition nor the proportion of carcasses dying of infectious disease varied consistently between periods of population increase and decline. The population decline from 1976 to 1984 was likely due to incidental mortality in a set-net fishery, and the decline from 1995 to 1999 may be related to a developing live-fish fishery. Long-term trends unrelated to periods of growth and decline included a decrease in per capita pup production and mass/length ratios of adult carcasses over the 31-yr study. The generally high proportion of deaths from infectious disease suggests that this factor has contributed to the chronically sluggish growth rate of the California sea otter population.

  11. Multigenerational effect of perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) on the individual fitness and population growth of Daphnia magna.

    PubMed

    Jeong, Tae-Yong; Yuk, Min-Su; Jeon, Junho; Kim, Sang Don

    2016-11-01

    We investigated the multigenerational effect of PFOS to individual fitness (e.g., body weight, acetylcholinesterase and glutathione S-transferase) and population growth (e.g., offspring number and time to first brood) of Daphnia magna during continuous and discontinuous exposures. The intrinsic rate of population growth was also calculated. In the continuous exposure, population growth-related adverse effects were detected during all test periods, and the adverse effect tended to be weaker in later generations. On the other hand, individual fitness-related adverse effects were observed from F1 not in F0 and deteriorated as the generation number increased. These results imply that individual fitness worsens although the population growth is restored in later generations. Upon discontinuous exposure, a few but significant adverse effects were observed during the non-exposure period and highest effects were detected during the re-exposure period. This encourages the study of different exposure scenarios, which may result in unexpected and higher PFOS toxicity. Consequently, this study confirms adverse effects of PFOS to Daphnia magna in multigenerational period and supports reasons for studies linking individual fitness changes to population dynamics and covering diverse exposure scenarios to evaluate the risk of PFOS in a water environment. PMID:27396314

  12. Using a population growth model to simulate response of Plodia interpunctella Hübner to temperature and diet

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Response to temperature and diet are major factors in the potential population growth of Plodia interpunctella Hübner, a damaging pest of many stored products. A population growth model was used to simulate population development on an optimal wheat-based diet and a sub-optimal diet of raisins at 20...

  13. Crowding out the Future: World Population Growth, U.S. Immigration, and Pressures on Natural Resources [and] Teacher's Guide.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fox, Robert W.; Mehlman, Ira H.

    Using text, graphics, satellite imagery, and data this publication with accompanying teacher's guide seeks to illustrate three main points concerning world population: (1) rapid world population growth is placing untenable immigration pressures on the United States; (2) immigration and U.S. population growth patterns generally are regionally…

  14. Rapid Population Growth and Human Carrying Capacity: Two Perspectives. World Bank Staff Working Papers No. 690 and Population and Development Series No. 15.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mahar, Dennis J., Ed.; And Others

    Two perspectives on carrying capacity and population growth are examined. The first perspective, "Carrying Capacity and Rapid Population Growth: Definition, Cases, and Consequences" (Robert Muscat), explores the possible meanings of the idea of carrying capacity under developing country conditions, looks at historical and present-day cases of…

  15. Evidence of accelerated beak growth associated with avian keratin disorder in Black-capped Chickadees (Poecile atricapillus)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Van Hemert, Caroline; Handel, Colleen M.; O'Hara, Todd M.

    2012-01-01

    We recently documented an epizootic of beak deformities in more than 2,000 Blackcapped Chickadees (Poecile atricapillus) and other wild bird species in North America. This emerging avian disease, which has been termed avian keratin disorder, results in gross overgrowth of the rhamphotheca, the outer, keratinized layer of the beak. To test the hypothesis that the beak deformities characteristic of this disorder are associated with accelerated keratin production, we measured rates of beak growth and wear in affected Black-capped Chickadees (n=16) and a control sample of unaffected chickadees (n=14) collected from south-central (61°09′−61°38′N, 149°11′ −149°48′W) and interior Alaska (64°51′ −64°53′N, 147°49′ −147°59′W). Rates of absolute growth were 50–100% higher in affected birds than they were in control birds and exceeded records from other passerine species. These results suggest that abnormally rapid epidermal growth is the primary physical mechanism by which beak deformities develop and are maintained in affected chickadees. Although beak overgrowth typically worsened over time, differential patterns of wear influenced the severity and morphology of deformities. In some cases, the effects of accelerated keratin growth were partially mitigated by frequent breakage of rhamphothecal tips. However, mortalities occurred in 9 of 16 birds (56%) with beak deformities during the study, suggesting that avian keratin disorder results in severe health consequences for affected birds. Additional study of factors that control beak keratin production is needed to understand the pathogenesis of this debilitating disease in wild birds.

  16. Evidence of accelerated beak growth associated with avian keratin disorder in black-capped chickadees (Poecile atricapillus)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Van Hemert, Caroline R.; Handel, Colleen M.; O'Hara, Todd M.

    2012-01-01

    We recently documented an epizootic of beak deformities in more than 2,000 Blackcapped Chickadees (Poecile atricapillus) and other wild bird species in North America. This emerging avian disease, which has been termed avian keratin disorder, results in gross overgrowth of the rhamphotheca, the outer, keratinized layer of the beak. To test the hypothesis that the beak deformities characteristic of this disorder are associated with accelerated keratin production, we measured rates of beak growth and wear in affected Black-capped Chickadees (n=16) and a control sample of unaffected chickadees (n=14) collected from south-central (61°09'-61°38'N, 149°11' -149°48'W) and interior Alaska (64°51' -64°53'N, 147°49' -147°59'W). Rates of absolute growth were 50-100% higher in affected birds than they were in control birds and exceeded records from other passerine species. These results suggest that abnormally rapid epidermal growth is the primary physical mechanism by which beak deformities develop and are maintained in affected chickadees. Although beak overgrowth typically worsened over time, differential patterns of wear influenced the severity and morphology of deformities. In some cases, the effects of accelerated keratin growth were partially mitigated by frequent breakage of rhamphothecal tips. However, mortalities occurred in 9 of 16 birds (56%) with beak deformities during the study, suggesting that avian keratin disorder results in severe health consequences for affected birds. Additional study of factors that control beak keratin production is needed to understand the pathogenesis of this debilitating disease in wild birds.

  17. Attenuation of actinomyosinII contractile activity in growth cones accelerates filopodia-guided and microtubule-based neurite elongation.

    PubMed

    Rösner, Harald; Möller, Wolfgang; Wassermann, Torsten; Mihatsch, Julia; Blum, Martin

    2007-10-24

    The myosinII-specific inhibitor blebbistatin was used to attenuate actinomyosinII contractility in E7-chicken retina explant, medulla and spinal cord neuronal cell cultures. Addition of 20-100 microM blebbistatin, a concentration range that reversibly disrupts actin stress fibers, led to a reduction of growth cone lamellipodial areas and to an elongation of filopodia within 5 to 10 min. These morphological changes were completely reversed after removing the inhibitor. In the continued presence of blebbistatin for several hours, a dose-dependent acceleration (up to 6-fold) of neurite outgrowth was observed. The rapidly elongating neuritic processes displayed narrowed growth cones with one to three long filopodia at the leading edge. At the same time, thin neuritic branches emerged in a "push"-like fashion guided by filopodial extensions. Immunocytochemical characterization of these thin sprouts revealed that they contained actin filaments, myosinIIA, phosphorylated neurofilament/tau epitopes, MAP2, NCAM-PSA, and microtubules, demonstrating that these processes presented neurites and not filopodia. The crucial involvement of microtubules in blebbistatin-induced accelerated neurite extension was confirmed by its inhibition in the presence of nocodazole or taxol. The promotion by blebbistatin of neurite outgrowth occurred on polylysine, laminin, as well as on fibronectin as substrate. The presence of the Rho/ROCK-inhibitor Y-27632 also caused a dose-dependent promotion of neurite growth which was, however, 3-fold less pronounced as compared to blebbistatin. In contrast to blebbistatin, Y-27632 led to the enlargement of growth cone lamellipodial extensions. Our data demonstrate that neurite outgrowth and branching are inversely correlated with the degree of actinomyosinII contractility which determines the speed of retrograde flow and turnover of actin filaments and, by this, microtubule extension.

  18. Silencing of PMEPA1 accelerates the growth of prostate cancer cells through AR, NEDD4 and PTEN.

    PubMed

    Li, Hua; Mohamed, Ahmed A; Sharad, Shashwat; Umeda, Elizabeth; Song, Yingjie; Young, Denise; Petrovics, Gyorgy; McLeod, David G; Sesterhenn, Isabell A; Sreenath, Taduru; Dobi, Albert; Srivastava, Shiv

    2015-06-20

    Androgen Receptor (AR) is the male hormone receptor and a nuclear transcription factor which plays a central role in the growth of normal and malignant prostate gland. Our earlier studies defined a mechanistic model for male hormone dependent regulation of AR protein levels in prostate cancer (CaP) cells through a negative feed-back loop between AR and PMEPA1, an androgen induced NEDD4 E3 ubiquitin ligase binding protein. This report focuses on the impact of PMEPA1 silencing on CaP biology. PMEPA1 knockdown accelerated the growth of CaP tumor cells in athymic nude mice. In cell culture models knockdown of PMEPA1 resulted in resistance to AR inhibitors enzalutamide and bicalutamide. While, AR protein down regulation by NEDD4 was PMEPA1 dependent, we also noted a PMEPA1 independent downregulation of PTEN by NEDD4. In a subset of human CaP, decreased PMEPA1 mRNA expression significantly correlated with increased levels of AR transcription target PSA, as a surrogate for elevated AR. This study highlights that silencing of PMEPA1 accelerates the growth of CaP cells through AR, NEDD4 and PTEN. Thus, the therapeutic restoration of PMEPA1 represents a promising complementary strategy correcting for AR and PTEN defects in CaP. Statement of significance: Here we define that silencing of PMEPA1 facilitates the growth of CaP cells and modulates AR through NEDD4 and PTEN. The restoration of PMEPA1 represents a promising complementary therapeutic strategy correcting for AR and PTEN defects.

  19. Enterococcus faecium LKE12 Cell-Free Extract Accelerates Host Plant Growth via Gibberellin and Indole-3-Acetic Acid Secretion.

    PubMed

    Lee, Ko-Eun; Radhakrishnan, Ramalingam; Kang, Sang-Mo; You, Young-Hyun; Joo, Gil-Jae; Lee, In-Jung; Ko, Jae-Hwan; Kim, Jin-Ho

    2015-09-01

    The use of microbial extracts containing plant hormones is a promising technique to improve crop growth. Little is known about the effect of bacterial cell-free extracts on plant growth promotion. This study, based on phytohormonal analyses, aimed at exploring the potential mechanisms by which Enterococcus faecium LKE12 enhances plant growth in oriental melon. A bacterial strain, LKE12, was isolated from soil, and further identified as E. faecium by 16S rDNA sequencing and phylogenetic analysis. The plant growth-promoting ability of an LKE12 bacterial culture was tested in a gibberellin (GA)-deficient rice dwarf mutant (waito-C) and a normal GA biosynthesis rice cultivar (Hwayongbyeo). E. faecium LKE12 significantly improved the length and biomass of rice shoots in both normal and dwarf cultivars through the secretion of an array of gibberellins (GA1, GA3, GA7, GA8, GA9, GA12, GA19, GA20, GA24, and GA53), as well as indole-3-acetic acid (IAA). To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study indicating that E. faecium can produce GAs. Increases in shoot and root lengths, plant fresh weight, and chlorophyll content promoted by E. faecium LKE12 and its cell-free extract inoculated in oriental melon plants revealed a favorable interaction of E. faecium LKE12 with plants. Higher plant growth rates and nutrient contents of magnesium, calcium, sodium, iron, manganese, silicon, zinc, and nitrogen were found in cell-free extract-treated plants than in control plants. The results of the current study suggest that E. faecium LKE12 promotes plant growth by producing GAs and IAA; interestingly, the exogenous application of its cell-free culture extract can be a potential strategy to accelerate plant growth.

  20. Generality of the growth kinetics of the average individual cell in different bacterial populations.

    PubMed Central

    Trueba, F J; Neijssel, O M; Woldringh, C L

    1982-01-01

    The kinetics of growth of all the cells in a population is reflected in the shape of the size distribution of the population. To ascertain whether the kinetics of growth of the average individual cell is similar for different strains or growth conditions, we compared the shape of normalized size distributions obtained from steady-state populations. Significant differences in the size distributions were found, but these could be ascribed either to the precision achieved at division or to a constriction period which is long relative to the total cell cycle time. The remaining difference is quite small. Thus, without establishing the pattern itself, it is concluded that the basic course of growth is very similar for the various Escherichia coli strains examined and probably also for other rod-shaped bacteria. The effects of differences in culture technique (batch or chemostat culture), growth rate, and differences among strains were not found to influence the shape of the size distributions and hence the growth kinetics in a direct manner; small differences were found, but only when the precision at division or the fraction of constricted cells (long constriction period) were different as well. PMID:6804435

  1. Population increase, economic growth, educational inequality, and income distribution: some recent evidence.

    PubMed

    Ram, R

    1984-04-01

    The relationship between population increase, economic growth, education and income inequality was examined in a cross-section study based on data from 26 developing and 2 developed countries. As other studies have noted, high population growth is associated with a less equal income distribution. A 1 percentage point reduction in the rate of population growth tends to raise the income share of the poorest 80% in the less developed world by almost 5 percentage points and is associated with a 1.7 percentage point increase in the income share of the poorest 40%. The relationship between short-run income growth and equality, on the other hand, is strong and positive. Estimates suggest that a 1 percentage point increase in the short-run rate of growth of the gross domestic product (GDP) increases the income share of the bottom 80% by about 2 percentage points and that of the poorest 40% by almost 1 percentage point. Although higher mean schooling appears to be a mild equalizer, educational inequality does not appear to have an adverse effect on income distribution. Overall, these results challenge the widely held belief that there must be a growth-equity trade-off. Moreover, they suggest that the impact of educational inequality on income distribution may be different from that observed in earlier studies, implying a need for caution in using these earlier results as a basis for educational policy development.

  2. Dynamics of individual growth in a recovering population of lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fabrizio, Mary C.; Dorazio, Robert M.; Schram, Stephen T.

    2001-01-01

    In 1976, the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources established a refuge for a nearly depleted population of lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) at Gull Island Shoal, Lake Superior. The refuge was intended to reduce fishing mortality by protecting adult lake trout. We examined the growth dynamics of these lake trout during the period of recovery by comparing estimates of ndividual growth before and after the refuge was established. Our estimates are based on an annual mark-recapture survey conducted at the spawning area since 1969. We developed a model that allowed mean growth rates to differ among individuals of different sizes and that accommodated variation in growth rates of individuals of the same size. Likelihood ratio tests were used to determine if the mean growth increments of lake trout changed ater the refuge was established. Our results suggest that growth of mature lake trout (particularly wild fish) decreased significantly in the postrefuge period. This decreased growth may have been associated with a reduction in food availability. We also observed reductions in growth as wild fish grew older and larger, which suggests that the growth of these fish may be adequately approximated by a von Bertalanffy growth model if it becomes possible to obtain accurate ages.

  3. Catalysis of protein folding by chaperones accelerates evolutionary dynamics in adapting cell populations.

    PubMed

    Cetinbaş, Murat; Shakhnovich, Eugene I

    2013-01-01

    Although molecular chaperones are essential components of protein homeostatic machinery, their mechanism of action and impact on adaptation and evolutionary dynamics remain controversial. Here we developed a physics-based ab initio multi-scale model of a living cell for population dynamics simulations to elucidate the effect of chaperones on adaptive evolution. The 6-loci genomes of model cells encode model proteins, whose folding and interactions in cellular milieu can be evaluated exactly from their genome sequences. A genotype-phenotype relationship that is based on a simple yet non-trivially postulated protein-protein interaction (PPI) network determines the cell division rate. Model proteins can exist in native and molten globule states and participate in functional and all possible promiscuous non-functional PPIs. We find that an active chaperone mechanism, whereby chaperones directly catalyze protein folding, has a significant impact on the cellular fitness and the rate of evolutionary dynamics, while passive chaperones, which just maintain misfolded proteins in soluble complexes have a negligible effect on the fitness. We find that by partially releasing the constraint on protein stability, active chaperones promote a deeper exploration of sequence space to strengthen functional PPIs, and diminish the non-functional PPIs. A key experimentally testable prediction emerging from our analysis is that down-regulation of chaperones that catalyze protein folding significantly slows down the adaptation dynamics. PMID:24244114

  4. Impacts of breeder loss on social structure, reproduction and population growth in a social canid.

    PubMed

    Borg, Bridget L; Brainerd, Scott M; Meier, Thomas J; Prugh, Laura R

    2015-01-01

    The importance of individuals to the dynamics of populations may depend on reproductive status, especially for species with complex social structure. Loss of reproductive individuals in socially complex species could disproportionately affect population dynamics by destabilizing social structure and reducing population growth. Alternatively, compensatory mechanisms such as rapid replacement of breeders may result in little disruption. The impact of breeder loss on the population dynamics of social species remains poorly understood. We evaluated the effect of breeder loss on social stability, recruitment and population growth of grey wolves (Canis lupus) in Denali National Park and Preserve, Alaska using a 26-year dataset of 387 radiocollared wolves. Harvest of breeding wolves is a highly contentious conservation and management issue worldwide, with unknown population-level consequences. Breeder loss preceded 77% of cases (n = 53) of pack dissolution from 1986 to 2012. Packs were more likely to dissolve if a female or both breeders were lost and pack size was small. Harvest of breeders increased the probability of pack dissolution, likely because the timing of harvest coincided with the breeding season of wolves. Rates of denning and successful recruitment were uniformly high for packs that did not experience breeder loss; however, packs that lost breeders exhibited lower denning and recruitment rates. Breeder mortality and pack dissolution had no significant effects on immediate or longer term population dynamics. Our results indicate the importance of breeding individuals is context dependent. The impact of breeder loss on social group persistence, reproduction and population growth may be greatest when average group sizes are small and mortality occurs during the breeding season. This study highlights the importance of reproductive individuals in maintaining group cohesion in social species, but at the population level socially complex species may be resilient

  5. Comparison of native and introduced flathead catfish populations in Alabama and Georgia: Growth, mortality, and management

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sakaris, P.C.; Irwin, E.R.; Jolley, J.C.; Harrison, D.

    2006-01-01

    We compared growth of flathead catfish Pylodictis olivaris from two native populations in Alabama (Coosa and Tallapoosa rivers) and two introduced populations in Georgia (Ocmulgee and Satilla rivers). We also compared mortality rates and potential outcomes of various management regimes (minimum length limits [MLLs]) among the populations. Total length-log10(age) regression slopes for introduced fish were higher than those for native fish, and von Bertalanffy growth coefficients (K) were greater for introduced fish (Ocmulgee: 0.195; Satilla: 0.201) than for native individuals (Coosa: 0.057; Tallapoosa: 0.059). Therefore, introduced flathead catfish grew more rapidly than those in their native range. Mortality (instantaneous mortality rate, Z) was higher in the Satilla River population (Z = -0.602) than in the Ocmulgee River (Z = -0.227) and Coosa River (Z = -0.156) populations. However, fish in the Satilla River population had been introduced for only 10 years and presumably did not reach their theoretical maximum age, potentially biasing the mortality estimate for that population. Simulation of management regimes in Fishery Analyses and Simulation Tools software predicted that maximum biomass of flathead catfish in the Ocmulgee (1,668 kg) and Satilla (1,137 kg) rivers was substantially larger than that in the Coosa (873 kg) and Tallapoosa (768 kg) populations. However, increased exploitation rates in the Ocmulgee and Satilla River populations resulted in dramatic declines in overall biomass, especially at lower MLLs (254 and 356 mm, respectively). Therefore, in systems where introduced flathead catfish represent an important recreational fishery but have dramatically reduced the abundance of native fishes through predation, minimal protection is recommended. We contend that rapid growth of introduced flathead catfish has major implications for their management and the conservation of native fishes. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2006.

  6. Growth rates and variances of unexploited wolf populations in dynamic equilibria

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mech, L. David; Fieberg, John

    2015-01-01

    Several states have begun harvesting gray wolves (Canis lupus), and these states and various European countries are closely monitoring their wolf populations. To provide appropriate perspective for determining unusual or extreme fluctuations in their managed wolf populations, we analyzed natural, long-term, wolf-population-density trajectories totaling 130 years of data from 3 areas: Isle Royale National Park in Lake Superior, Michigan, USA; the east-central Superior National Forest in northeastern Minnesota, USA; and Denali National Park, Alaska, USA. Ratios between minimum and maximum annual sizes for 2 mainland populations (n = 28 and 46 yr) varied from 2.5–2.8, whereas for Isle Royale (n = 56 yr), the ratio was 6.3. The interquartile range (25th percentile, 75th percentile) for annual growth rates, Nt+1/Nt, was (0.88, 1.14), (0.92, 1.11), and (0.86, 1.12) for Denali, Superior National Forest, and Isle Royale respectively. We fit a density-independent model and a Ricker model to each time series, and in both cases we considered the potential for observation error. Mean growth rates from the density-independent model were close to 0 for all 3 populations, with 95% credible intervals including 0. We view the estimated model parameters, including those describing annual variability or process variance, as providing useful summaries of the trajectories of these populations. The estimates of these natural wolf population parameters can serve as benchmarks for comparison with those of recovering wolf populations. Because our study populations were all from circumscribed areas, fluctuations in them represent fluctuations in densities (i.e., changes in numbers are not confounded by changes in occupied area as would be the case with populations expanding their range, as are wolf populations in many states).

  7. Population dynamics of bowfin in a south Georgia reservoir: latitudinal comparisons of population structure, growth, and mortality

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Porter, Nicholas J.; Bonvechio, Timothy F.; McCormick, Joshua L.; Quist, Michael

    2014-01-01

    The objectives of this study were to evaluate the population dynamics of bowfin (Amia calva) in Lake Lindsay Grace, Georgia, and to compare those dynamics to other bowfin populations. Relative abundance of bowfin sampled in 2010 in Lake Lindsay Grace was low and variable (mean±SD; 2.7±4.7 fish per hour of electrofishing). Total length (TL) of bowfin collected in Lake Lindsay Grace varied from 233–683 mm. Age of bowfin in Lake Lindsay Grace varied from 0–5 yr. Total annual mortality (A) was estimated at 68%. Both sexes appeared to be fully mature by age 2 with gonadosomatic index values above 8 for females and close to 1 for males. The majority of females were older, longer, and heavier than males. Bowfin in Lake Lindsay Grace had fast growth up to age 4 and higher total annual mortality than the other populations examined in this study. A chi-square test indicated that size structure of bowfin from Lake Lindsay Grace was different than those of a Louisiana population and two bowfin populations from the upper Mississippi River. To further assess bowfin size structure, we proposed standard length (i.e., TL) categories: stock (200 mm, 8 inches), quality (350 mm, 14 inches), preferred (460 mm, 18 inches), memorable (560 mm, 22, inches), and trophy (710 mm, 28 inches). Because our knowledge of bowfin ecology is limited, additional understanding of bowfin population dynamics provides important insight that can be used in management of bowfin across their distribution.

  8. Theory of a microfluidic serial dilution bioreactor for growth of planktonic and biofilm populations.

    PubMed

    Hsu, Sze-Bi; Yang, Ya-Tang

    2016-04-01

    We present the theory of a microfluidic bioreactor with a two-compartment growth chamber and periodic serial dilution. In the model, coexisting planktonic and biofilm populations exchange by adsorption and detachment. The criteria for coexistence and global extinction are determined by stability analysis of the global extinction state. Stability analysis yields the operating diagram in terms of the dilution and removal ratios, constrained by the plumbing action of the bioreactor. The special case of equal uptake function and logistic growth is analytically solved and explicit growth curves are plotted. The presented theory is applicable to generic microfluidic bioreactors with discrete growth chambers and periodic dilution at discrete time points. Therefore, the theory is expected to assist the design of microfluidic devices for investigating microbial competition and microbial biofilm growth under serial dilution conditions.

  9. The control of population growth is the function of the central government.

    PubMed

    1994-04-01

    This speech of Mr. Jiang Zemin, General Secretary of the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party and Chairman of the People's Republic of China, before the National Forum on Family Planning Work refers to the need to strictly and effectively implement the family planning program in 1994. Socioeconomic reforms will be occurring simultaneously. Success of the family planning program is attributed to Party Committees, governments, cadres, and the masses. Even though there have been advances made in slowing population growth, the vast size of the Chinese population still poses problems. China's state policy is to modernize and to maintain strict control of overrapid population growth. The strategy is to move toward a market economy, while continuing to slow population growth but without market regulation of population growth. Family planning serves the state and the people through voluntary action. The public must receive "meticulous" education and help with day to day problems in production, daily life, and human reproduction. Government departments and nongovernmental organizations need to work together. Family planning use is the obligation of every citizen, who should be made aware of relevant national policy and of the need for devotion to country. Benefits will be received by the state and families, when family planning is used. Family planning will be cultivated as an honorable act, and boys and girls will be valued equally. The educational program will train leaders and cadres to take a leadership role in practicing family planning. Party organizations and governments at all levels should take personal responsibility for program implementation. Erratic efforts are not good enough; the task is long and arduous. Serious difficulties still exist in rural areas, and program focus should be directed to rural areas and the floating population. Reports were also made at the Forum on the population status and preparatory meetings of the forthcoming women

  10. Recovering population parameters from a single gene genealogy: an unbiased estimator of the growth rate.

    PubMed

    Maruvka, Yosef E; Shnerb, Nadav M; Bar-Yam, Yaneer; Wakeley, John

    2011-05-01

    We show that the number of lineages ancestral to a sample, as a function of time back into the past, which we call the number of lineages as a function of time (NLFT), is a nearly deterministic property of large-sample gene genealogies. We obtain analytic expressions for the NLFT for both constant-sized and exponentially growing populations. The low level of stochastic variation associated with the NLFT of a large sample suggests using the NLFT to make estimates of population parameters. Based on this, we develop a new computational method of inferring the size and growth rate of a population from a large sample of DNA sequences at a single locus. We apply our method first to a sample of 1,212 mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequences from China, confirming a pattern of recent population growth previously identified using other techniques, but with much smaller confidence intervals for past population sizes due to the low variation of the NLFT. We further analyze a set of 63 mtDNA sequences from blue whales (BWs), concluding that the population grew in the past. This calls for reevaluation of previous studies that were based on the assumption that the BW population was fixed. PMID:21172828

  11. Integrated Kinetic and Probabilistic Modeling of the Growth Potential of Bacterial Populations

    PubMed Central

    George, S. M.; Métris, A.

    2015-01-01

    When bacteria are exposed to osmotic stress, some cells recover and grow, while others die or are unculturable. This leads to a viable count growth curve where the cell number decreases before the onset of the exponential growth phase. From such curves, it is impossible to estimate what proportion of the initial cells generates the growth because it leads to an ill-conditioned numerical problem. Here, we applied a combination of experimental and statistical methods, based on optical density measurements, to infer both the probability of growth and the maximum specific growth rate of the culture. We quantified the growth potential of a bacterial population as a quantity composed from the probability of growth and the “suitability” of the growing subpopulation to the new environment. We found that, for all three laboratory media studied, the probability of growth decreased while the “work to be done” by the growing subpopulation (defined as the negative logarithm of their suitability parameter) increased with NaCl concentration. The results suggest that the effect of medium on the probability of growth could be described by a simple shift parameter, a differential NaCl concentration that can be accounted for by the change in the medium composition. Finally, we highlighted the need for further understanding of the effect of the osmoprotectant glycine betaine on metabolism. PMID:25747002

  12. Integrated kinetic and probabilistic modeling of the growth potential of bacterial populations.

    PubMed

    George, S M; Métris, A; Baranyi, J

    2015-05-01

    When bacteria are exposed to osmotic stress, some cells recover and grow, while others die or are unculturable. This leads to a viable count growth curve where the cell number decreases before the onset of the exponential growth phase. From such curves, it is impossible to estimate what proportion of the initial cells generates the growth because it leads to an ill-conditioned numerical problem. Here, we applied a combination of experimental and statistical methods, based on optical density measurements, to infer both the probability of growth and the maximum specific growth rate of the culture. We quantified the growth potential of a bacterial population as a quantity composed from the probability of growth and the "suitability" of the growing subpopulation to the new environment. We found that, for all three laboratory media studied, the probability of growth decreased while the "work to be done" by the growing subpopulation (defined as the negative logarithm of their suitability parameter) increased with NaCl concentration. The results suggest that the effect of medium on the probability of growth could be described by a simple shift parameter, a differential NaCl concentration that can be accounted for by the change in the medium composition. Finally, we highlighted the need for further understanding of the effect of the osmoprotectant glycine betaine on metabolism.

  13. [The growth and distribution of the population of Brazil: recent trends].

    PubMed

    Martine, G; Camargo, L

    1984-01-01

    Population trends underwent profound changes in Brazil during the last few decades. An important decrease in the rate of population growth was registered in the 1970s. This decrease is attributable to a decline in the level of fertility, which was observed in all regions and in both urban and rural areas. In order to explain this decline, it is necessary to analyze both structural and circumstantial factors related to the political, economic, and social context of the times. Main trends in population redistribution during the 1970s can be regrouped in terms of interregional exchanges and rural-urban migration. A growing convergence between these 2 types of patterns is observed in that population is increasingly being concentrated in densely populated areas of intense economic activities. The implications of these trends for public action are analyzed in the final section.

  14. Impact of stochastic accelerations on dopant segregation in microgravity semiconductor crystal growth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ruiz, X.; Bitlloch, P.; Ramírez-Piscina, L.; Casademunt, J.

    2012-09-01

    The residual accelerations that are typically present in microgravity environments (g-jitters) contain a broad spectrum of frequencies and may be modeled as stochastic processes. Their effects on the quality of the semiconductor crystals are analyzed here quantitatively with direct numerical simulation. In particular we focus on the dopant segregation effects due to thermosolutal convection as a function of the parameters characterizing the statistics of the stochastic force. The numerical simulation is specified for material parameters of two doped semiconductors (Ge:Ga and GaAs:Se) in realistic conditions of actual microgravity environments. As a general result, we show that the segregation response is strongly dominated by the low-frequency part of the g-jitter spectrum. In addition, we develop a simplified model of the problem based on linear response theory that projects the dynamics into very few effective modes. The model captures remarkably well the segregation effects for an arbitrary time-dependent acceleration of small amplitude, while it implies an enormous reduction of computer demands. This model could be helpful to analyze results from real accelerometric signals and also as a predictive tool for experimental design.

  15. Effects of climate change on long-term population growth of pronghorn in an arid environment

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gedir, Jay V.; Cain, James W.; Harris, Grant; Turnbull, Trey T.

    2015-01-01

    Climate often drives ungulate population dynamics, and as climates change, some areas may become unsuitable for species persistence. Unraveling the relationships between climate and population dynamics, and projecting them across time, advances ecological understanding that informs and steers sustainable conservation for species. Using pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) as an ecological model, we used a Bayesian approach to analyze long-term population, precipitation, and temperature data from 18 populations in the southwestern United States. We determined which long-term (12 and 24 months) or short-term (gestation trimester and lactation period) climatic conditions best predicted annual rate of population growth (λ). We used these predictions to project population trends through 2090. Projections incorporated downscaled climatic data matched to pronghorn range for each population, given a high and a lower atmospheric CO2 concentration scenario. Since the 1990s, 15 of the pronghorn populations declined in abundance. Sixteen populations demonstrated a significant relationship between precipitation and λ, and in 13 of these, temperature was also significant. Precipitation predictors of λ were highly seasonal, with lactation being the most important period, followed by early and late gestation. The influence of temperature on λ was less seasonal than precipitation, and lacked a clear temporal pattern. The climatic projections indicated that all of these pronghorn populations would experience increased temperatures, while the direction and magnitude of precipitation had high population-specific variation. Models predicted that nine populations would be extirpated or approaching extirpation by 2090. Results were consistent across both atmospheric CO2 concentration scenarios, indicating robustness of trends irrespective of climatic severity. In the southwestern United States, the climate underpinning pronghorn populations is shifting, making conditions increasingly

  16. Population Growth. Understanding Global Change: Earth Science and Human Impacts. Global Change Instruction Program.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jacobsen, Judith E.

    The Global Change Instruction Program was designed by college professors to fill a need for interdisciplinary materials on the emerging science of global change. This instructional module concentrates on interactions between population growth and human activities that produce global change. The materials are designed for undergraduate students…

  17. Population growth and development of the psocid Lepinotus reticulatus at constant temperatures and relative humidities

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    We investigated the effects of temperature and relative humidity on population growth and development of the psocid Lepinotus reticulatus Enderlein. Part of this study assessed the effects of marking psocids using methylene blue, chalk powder, and fluorescent powder to differentiate nymphal stages d...

  18. Population Growth Rates: Connecting Mathematics to Studies of Society and the Environment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ninbet, Steven; Hurley, Gabrielle; Weldon, Elizabeth

    2006-01-01

    This article reports on the teaching of a unit of lessons which integrates mathematics with studies of society and the environment. The unit entitled "Population Growth Rates" was taught to a double class of Year 6 students by a team of three teachers. The objectives of the unit were: (1) to provide students with a real-world context in which to…

  19. Teaching Population Growth Using Cultures of Vinegar Eels, "Turbatrix aceti" (Nematoda)

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wallace, Robert L.

    2005-01-01

    A simple laboratory exercise is presented that follows the population growth of the common vinegar eel, "Turbatrix aceti" (Nematoda), in a microcosm using a simple culture medium. It lends itself to an exercise in a single semester course. (Contains 4 figures.)

  20. EFFECT OF FLUID SHEAR AND IRRADIANCE ON POPULATION GROWTH AND CELLULAR TOXIN CONTENT OF THE DINOFLAGELLATE ALEXANDRIUM FUNDYENSE.

    EPA Science Inventory

    The potential for in situ turbulence to inhibit dinoflagellate population growth has been demonstrated by experimentally exposing dinoflagellate cultures to quantified shear flow. However, despite interest in understanding environmental factors that affect the growth of toxic din...

  1. Modeling the Pre-Industrial Roots of Modern Super-Exponential Population Growth

    PubMed Central

    Stutz, Aaron Jonas

    2014-01-01

    To Malthus, rapid human population growth—so evident in 18th Century Europe—was obviously unsustainable. In his Essay on the Principle of Population, Malthus cogently argued that environmental and socioeconomic constraints on population rise were inevitable. Yet, he penned his essay on the eve of the global census size reaching one billion, as nearly two centuries of super-exponential increase were taking off. Introducing a novel extension of J. E. Cohen's hallmark coupled difference equation model of human population dynamics and carrying capacity, this article examines just how elastic population growth limits may be in response to demographic change. The revised model involves a simple formalization of how consumption costs influence carrying capacity elasticity over time. Recognizing that complex social resource-extraction networks support ongoing consumption-based investment in family formation and intergenerational resource transfers, it is important to consider how consumption has impacted the human environment and demography—especially as global population has become very large. Sensitivity analysis of the consumption-cost model's fit to historical population estimates, modern census data, and 21st Century demographic projections supports a critical conclusion. The recent population explosion was systemically determined by long-term, distinctly pre-industrial cultural evolution. It is suggested that modern globalizing transitions in technology, susceptibility to infectious disease, information flows and accumulation, and economic complexity were endogenous products of much earlier biocultural evolution of family formation's embeddedness in larger, hierarchically self-organizing cultural systems, which could potentially support high population elasticity of carrying capacity. Modern super-exponential population growth cannot be considered separately from long-term change in the multi-scalar political economy that connects family formation and

  2. Why sustainable population growth is a key to climate change and public health equity.

    PubMed

    Howat, Peter; Stoneham, Melissa

    2011-12-01

    Australia's population could reach 42 million by 2050. This rapid population growth, if unabated, will have significant social, public health and environmental implications. On the one hand, it is a major driver of climate change and environmental degradation; on the other it is likely to be a major contributor to growing social and health issues including a decline in quality of life for many residents. Disadvantaged and vulnerable groups will be most affected. The environmental, social and health-related issues include: pressure on the limited arable land in Australia; increased volumes of industrial and domestic waste; inadequate essential services; traffic congestion; lack of affordable housing; declining mental health; increased obesity problems; and inadequate aged care services. Many of these factors are related to the aggravation of climate change and health inequities. It is critical that the Australian Government develops a sustainable population plan with stabilisation of population growth as an option. The plan needs to ensure adequate hospitals and healthcare services, education facilities, road infrastructure, sustainable transport options, water quality and quantity, utilities and other amenities that are already severely overburdened in Australian cities. There is a need for a guarantee that affordable housing will be available and priority be given to training young people and Indigenous people for employment. This paper presents evidence to support the need for the stabilisation of population growth as one of the most significant measures to control climate change as well as to improve public health equity.

  3. Population growth and natural resource use: do we need to despair of Africa?.

    PubMed

    Tiffen, M; Mortimore, M

    1993-01-01

    The authors make the case that population growth can lead to increases in agricultural output per head on a sustainable basis. This argument, originally developed by E. Boserup, is "illustrated by a study of Machakos District, Kenya during 1930-1960, which shows that, if policies are supportive, agricultural and non-farm incomes grow faster than even the rapid population growth rate experienced in Africa. Land use capability is not fixed, but can be transformed by investment, new technologies and good management. Lack of investment and consequent degradation are most likely at low population densities. While the study cannot foretell the future, Java illustrates a similar theme at even higher densities." PMID:12287204

  4. Estimating individual contributions to population growth: evolutionary fitness in ecological time.

    PubMed

    Coulson, T; Benton, T G; Lundberg, P; Dall, S R X; Kendall, B E; Gaillard, J-M

    2006-03-01

    Ecological and evolutionary change is generated by variation in individual performance. Biologists have consequently long been interested in decomposing change measured at the population level into contributions from individuals, the traits they express and the alleles they carry. We present a novel method of estimating individual contributions to population growth and changes in distributions of quantitative traits and alleles. An individual's contribution to population growth is an individual's realized annual fitness. We demonstrate how the quantities we develop can be used to address a range of empirical questions, and provide an application to a detailed dataset of Soay sheep. The approach provides results that are consistent with those obtained using lifetime estimates of individual performance, yet is substantially more powerful as it allows lifetime performance to be decomposed into annual survival and fecundity contributions.

  5. Micro-structured, spontaneously eroding hydrogels accelerate endothelialization through presentation of conjugated growth factors.

    PubMed

    Jensen, Bettina E B; Edlund, Katrine; Zelikin, Alexander N

    2015-05-01

    Growth factors represent highly potent and highly efficacious means of communication to cells. At the same time, these proteins are fragile and relatively small sized--rendering their immobilization and controlled release from biomaterials challenging. In this work, we establish a method to incorporate growth factors into the physical hydrogels based on poly(vinyl alcohol), PVA. The latter have a long and successful history of biomedical applications and approval for diverse use in human patients, but are also characterized with scant opportunities for bioconjugation and functionalization. Herein, we develop the conjugation of growth factors to the micro-structured, spontaneously eroding physical hydrogels based on PVA. Protein conjugation was elaborated using model substrates, albumin and lysozyme, which aided to reveal specificity of chemical reactions and benign, non-harmful nature of the established protocols. Surface-adhered format of hydrogel analyses allowed to quantify bioconjugation reactions and enzymatic activity of the immobilized proteins and to visualize the hydrogels with immobilized cargo. In cell culture, immobilized growth factors were effective in communicating to adhering cells and specifically enhanced proliferation rates of the cells containing the corresponding receptors. At the same time, proliferation of the cells devoid of these receptors was un-altered. PMID:25725560

  6. Soft Graphene Nanofibers Designed for the Acceleration of Nerve Growth and Development.

    PubMed

    Feng, Zhang-Qi; Wang, Ting; Zhao, Bin; Li, Jiacheng; Jin, Lin

    2015-11-01

    Soft graphene nanofibers with recoverable electrical conductivity and excellent physicochemical stability are prepared by a controlled assembly technique. By using the soft graphene nanofibers for cellular electrical stimulation, the common inhibitory effect of long-term electrical stimulation on nerve growth and development is avoided, which usually happens with traditional 2D conductive materials.

  7. Micro-structured, spontaneously eroding hydrogels accelerate endothelialization through presentation of conjugated growth factors.

    PubMed

    Jensen, Bettina E B; Edlund, Katrine; Zelikin, Alexander N

    2015-05-01

    Growth factors represent highly potent and highly efficacious means of communication to cells. At the same time, these proteins are fragile and relatively small sized--rendering their immobilization and controlled release from biomaterials challenging. In this work, we establish a method to incorporate growth factors into the physical hydrogels based on poly(vinyl alcohol), PVA. The latter have a long and successful history of biomedical applications and approval for diverse use in human patients, but are also characterized with scant opportunities for bioconjugation and functionalization. Herein, we develop the conjugation of growth factors to the micro-structured, spontaneously eroding physical hydrogels based on PVA. Protein conjugation was elaborated using model substrates, albumin and lysozyme, which aided to reveal specificity of chemical reactions and benign, non-harmful nature of the established protocols. Surface-adhered format of hydrogel analyses allowed to quantify bioconjugation reactions and enzymatic activity of the immobilized proteins and to visualize the hydrogels with immobilized cargo. In cell culture, immobilized growth factors were effective in communicating to adhering cells and specifically enhanced proliferation rates of the cells containing the corresponding receptors. At the same time, proliferation of the cells devoid of these receptors was un-altered.

  8. Asymptotic growth of cumulative and regenerative beam break-up instabilities in accelerators

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lau, Y. Y.

    1988-06-01

    It is found that the asymptotic growth of the cumulative beam break up instability is independent of the focusing magnetic field, according to the model of Panofsky and Bander. The analysis is extended to include the transition from the cumulative to the regenerative type, both in the presence and absence of a focusing magnetic field.

  9. Demographic, mechanistic and density-dependent determinants of population growth rate: a case study in an avian predator.

    PubMed Central

    Hone, Jim; Sibly, Richard M

    2002-01-01

    Identifying the determinants of population growth rate is a central topic in population ecology. Three approaches (demographic, mechanistic and density-dependent) used historically to describe the determinants of population growth rate are here compared and combined for an avian predator, the barn owl (Tyto alba). The owl population remained approximately stable (r approximately 0) throughout the period from 1979 to 1991. There was no evidence of density dependence as assessed by goodness of fit to logistic population growth. The finite (lambda) and instantaneous (r) population growth rates were significantly positively related to food (field vole) availability. The demographic rates, annual adult mortality, juvenile mortality and annual fecundity were reported to be correlated with vole abundance. The best fit (R(2) = 0.82) numerical response of the owl population described a positive effect of food (field voles) and a negative additive effect of owl abundance on r. The numerical response of the barn owl population to food availability was estimated from both census and demographic data, with very similar results. Our analysis shows how the demographic and mechanistic determinants of population growth rate are linked; food availability determines demographic rates, and demographic rates determine population growth rate. The effects of food availability on population growth rate are modified by predator abundance. PMID:12396509

  10. Demographic, mechanistic and density-dependent determinants of population growth rate: a case study in an avian predator.

    PubMed

    Hone, Jim; Sibly, Richard M

    2002-09-29

    Identifying the determinants of population growth rate is a central topic in population ecology. Three approaches (demographic, mechanistic and density-dependent) used historically to describe the determinants of population growth rate are here compared and combined for an avian predator, the barn owl (Tyto alba). The owl population remained approximately stable (r approximately 0) throughout the period from 1979 to 1991. There was no evidence of density dependence as assessed by goodness of fit to logistic population growth. The finite (lambda) and instantaneous (r) population growth rates were significantly positively related to food (field vole) availability. The demographic rates, annual adult mortality, juvenile mortality and annual fecundity were reported to be correlated with vole abundance. The best fit (R(2) = 0.82) numerical response of the owl population described a positive effect of food (field voles) and a negative additive effect of owl abundance on r. The numerical response of the barn owl population to food availability was estimated from both census and demographic data, with very similar results. Our analysis shows how the demographic and mechanistic determinants of population growth rate are linked; food availability determines demographic rates, and demographic rates determine population growth rate. The effects of food availability on population growth rate are modified by predator abundance. PMID:12396509

  11. Population growth of Nassella trichotoma in grasslands in New Zealand slower today than in the past

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lamoureaux, Shona L.; Bourdôt, Graeme W.; Saville, David J.

    2011-09-01

    Nassella trichotoma established in modified tussock-grasslands in New Zealand from about 1860. Management programmes since 1946 have reduced populations to levels no longer impacting pastoral production. Optimising future management requires knowledge of the trajectory of population growth and its regulating demographic processes. To that end, four long-term field experiments were conducted. Net reproductive rate varied from 1.021 to 1.237 year -1 and growth in plant basal diameter from 8.1 to 16.6 mm year -1. The probability of flowering increased with basal diameter and was essentially unity above 50 mm diameter. Populations grubbed annually declined abruptly but recruitment was unaffected and extinction did not occur. Of seeds sown into disturbed and intact pastures, 0-51% produced seedlings and more arose on sunny slopes and from disturbed than intact pasture. Death rates were high; 7 years after sowing, surviving plants represented only 0-9% of the seed sown. Seeds buried 25 mm deep in the pasture litter on two occasions declined in viability at rates of 74 and 89% in the first year and first three months respectively and 26 and 0% year -1 thereafter. Seed production plant -1 (square root scale) increased linearly with plant basal diameter; for example, plants of 11 and 100 mm diameter are predicted to produce 0 and 11,092 spikelets (each with one seed) respectively. We estimate that a N. trichotoma population today will, in the absence of management, take 210 years to increase to 90% of its carrying capacity supporting the hypothesis that population growth in this species is slower than occurred historically. We show that the rates of some demographic processes may be much lower than in the past and suggest this is due to more competitive vegetation resulting from improved management. The size-dependence of many processes supports the need for a size-structured model to explain population growth in this weed.

  12. Impacts of invasive fish removal through angling on population characteristics and juvenile growth rate

    PubMed Central

    Evangelista, Charlotte; Britton, Robert J; Cucherousset, Julien

    2015-01-01

    Exploitation can modify the characteristics of fish populations through the selective harvesting of individuals, with this potentially leading to rapid ecological and evolutionary changes. Despite the well-known effects of invasive fishes on aquatic ecosystems generally, the potential effects of their selective removal through angling, a strategy commonly used to manage invasive fish, are poorly understood. The aim of this field-based study was to use the North American pumpkinseed Lepomis gibbosus as the model species to investigate the consequences of selective removal on their population characteristics and juvenile growth rates across 10 populations in artificial lakes in southern France. We found that the maximal individual mass in populations decreased as removal pressure through angling increased, whereas we did not observed any changes in the maximal individual length in populations as removal pressure increased. Total population abundance did not decrease as removal pressure increased; instead, here was a U-shaped relationship between removal pressure and the abundance of medium-bodied individuals. In addition, population biomass had a U-shaped curve response to removal pressure, implying that invasive fish populations can modulate their characteristics to compensate for the negative effects of selective removals. In addition, individual lengths at age 2 and juvenile growth rates decreased as removal pressure through angling increased, suggesting a shift toward an earlier size at maturity and an overall slower growing phenotype. Therefore, these outputs challenge the efficiency of selective management methods, suggesting the use of more proactive strategies to control invasive populations, and the need to investigate the potential ecological and evolutionary repercussions of nonrandom removal. PMID:26078856

  13. [The population growth in the city of Beijing and our present tasks (author's transl)].

    PubMed

    Qian, L J; Xu, B; Huang, S Y

    1980-04-01

    Concern for the rapid population growth since 1949 of China's second largest city, Beijing, is discussed in terms of population control, migration, and rises in the productive development of the city. From 1949 to 1963 the natural rate of population increased from 7.5 to 35.3%; however, after the introduction of a birth control program in 1971, the natural increase of population declined to 4.02% in 1977. From 1949-1978, the average birth rate was 145,000/year while the average death rate was 46,500/year, leaving the annual average increase in population at 98,000. The natural population increased by 2,340,000 from 1949-1978. The massive population growth since 1949 affected the economic development of the city as well as the country. Cultivated land near Beijing increased from 1949-1952, but because of urban development the land for cultivation decreased by 1,527,000 market acres from that available in 1949 (7,965,000 market acres). Population density increased from 430 persons/ square kilometer in 1962 to 506 persons/ square kilometer in 1978. From 1953 to 1978, production and consumption rates fluctuated with a net balance of only 2020 million catties in the 26 years, causing the need for products to be imported from other areas of the country. Unemployment is exacerbated by the lack of jobs and increasing numbers of people. Transportation problems also have developed. New efforts are being made to inform people of population control by the Beijing Population Association begun in 1979, because Beijing's population will continue to increase until 1989 due to the baby boom years during the fifties which created a 2nd boom in the late 1970s as well as the lack of education on population control. Other programs are being developed to, 1) educate people on economical measures of reducing the population, 2) promote governmental departments to improve birth control programs by means of social security services, child health agencies, and nursing schools, 3

  14. Accelerated crack growth, residual stress, and a cracked zinc coated pressure shell

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dittman, Daniel L.; Hampton, Roy W.; Nelson, Howard G.

    1987-01-01

    During a partial inspection of a 42 year old, operating, pressurized wind tunnel at NASA-Ames Research Center, a surface connected defect 114 in. long having an indicated depth of a 0.7 in. was detected. The pressure shell, constructed of a medium carbon steel, contains approximately 10 miles of welds and is cooled by flowing water over its zinc coated external surface. Metallurgical and fractographic analysis showed that the actual detect was 1.7 in. deep, and originated from an area of lack of weld penetration. Crack growth studies were performed on the shell material in the laboratory under various loading rates, hold times, and R-ratios with a simulated shell environment. The combination of zinc, water with electrolyte, and steel formed an electrolytic cell which resulted in an increase in cyclic crack growth rate by as much as 500 times over that observed in air. It was concluded that slow crack growth occurred in the pressure shell by a combination of stress corrosion cracking due to the welding residual stress and corrosion fatigue due to the cyclic operating stress.

  15. Accelerated Growth Plate Mineralization and Foreshortened Proximal Limb Bones in Fetuin-A Knockout Mice

    PubMed Central

    Gupta, Himadri S.; Schäfer, Cora; Krauss, Stefanie; Dunlop, John W. C.; Masic, Admir; Kerschnitzki, Michael; Zaslansky, Paul; Boesecke, Peter; Catalá-Lehnen, Philip; Schinke, Thorsten; Fratzl, Peter; Jahnen-Dechent, Willi

    2012-01-01

    The plasma protein fetuin-A/alpha2-HS-glycoprotein (genetic symbol Ahsg) is a systemic inhibitor of extraskeletal mineralization, which is best underscored by the excessive mineral deposition found in various tissues of fetuin-A deficient mice on the calcification-prone genetic background DBA/2. Fetuin-A is known to accumulate in the bone matrix thus an effect of fetuin-A on skeletal mineralization is expected. We examined the bones of fetuin-A deficient mice maintained on a C57BL/6 genetic background to avoid bone disease secondary to renal calcification. Here, we show that fetuin-A deficient mice display normal trabecular bone mass in the spine, but increased cortical thickness in the femur. Bone material properties, as well as mineral and collagen characteristics of cortical bone were unaffected by the absence of fetuin-A. In contrast, the long bones especially proximal limb bones were severely stunted in fetuin-A deficient mice compared to wildtype littermates, resulting in increased biomechanical stability of fetuin-A deficient femora in three-point-bending tests. Elevated backscattered electron signal intensities reflected an increased mineral content in the growth plates of fetuin-A deficient long bones, corroborating its physiological role as an inhibitor of excessive mineralization in the growth plate cartilage matrix - a site of vigorous physiological mineralization. We show that in the case of fetuin-A deficiency, active mineralization inhibition is a necessity for proper long bone growth. PMID:23091616

  16. Accelerated growth plate mineralization and foreshortened proximal limb bones in fetuin-A knockout mice.

    PubMed

    Seto, Jong; Busse, Björn; Gupta, Himadri S; Schäfer, Cora; Krauss, Stefanie; Dunlop, John W C; Masic, Admir; Kerschnitzki, Michael; Zaslansky, Paul; Boesecke, Peter; Catalá-Lehnen, Philip; Schinke, Thorsten; Fratzl, Peter; Jahnen-Dechent, Willi

    2012-01-01

    The plasma protein fetuin-A/alpha2-HS-glycoprotein (genetic symbol Ahsg) is a systemic inhibitor of extraskeletal mineralization, which is best underscored by the excessive mineral deposition found in various tissues of fetuin-A deficient mice on the calcification-prone genetic background DBA/2. Fetuin-A is known to accumulate in the bone matrix thus an effect of fetuin-A on skeletal mineralization is expected. We examined the bones of fetuin-A deficient mice maintained on a C57BL/6 genetic background to avoid bone disease secondary to renal calcification. Here, we show that fetuin-A deficient mice display normal trabecular bone mass in the spine, but increased cortical thickness in the femur. Bone material properties, as well as mineral and collagen characteristics of cortical bone were unaffected by the absence of fetuin-A. In contrast, the long bones especially proximal limb bones were severely stunted in fetuin-A deficient mice compared to wildtype littermates, resulting in increased biomechanical stability of fetuin-A deficient femora in three-point-bending tests. Elevated backscattered electron signal intensities reflected an increased mineral content in the growth plates of fetuin-A deficient long bones, corroborating its physiological role as an inhibitor of excessive mineralization in the growth plate cartilage matrix--a site of vigorous physiological mineralization. We show that in the case of fetuin-A deficiency, active mineralization inhibition is a necessity for proper long bone growth.

  17. Population growth and physiological characteristics of microalgae in a miniaturized bioreactor during space flight

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Gaohong; Chen, Haofeng; Li, Genbao; Chen, Lanzhou; Li, Dunhai; Hu, Chunxiang; Chen, Kun; Liu, Yongding

    2006-03-01

    A strain of microalgae ( Anabaena siamensis) had been cultured in a miniaturized bioreactor during a retrievable satellite flight for 15 days. By means of remote sensing equipment installed in the satellite, we gained the growth curve of microalgae population in space every day in real time. The curve indicated that the growth of microalgae in space was slower than the control on ground. Inoculation of the retrieved microalgae culture showed that the growth rate was distinctively higher than ground control. But after several generations, both cultures indicated similar growth rates. Those data showed that algae can adapt to space environment easily which may be valuable for designing more complex bioreactor and controlled ecological life support system in future experiment.

  18. The intrinsic growth rate as a predictor of population viability under climate warming.

    PubMed

    Amarasekare, Priyanga; Coutinho, Renato M

    2013-11-01

    1. Lately, there has been interest in using the intrinsic growth rate (rm) to predict the effects of climate warming on ectotherm population viability. However, because rm is calculated using the Euler-Lotka equation, its reliability in predicting population persistence depends on whether ectotherm populations can achieve a stable age/stage distribution in thermally variable environments. Here, we investigate this issue using a mathematical framework that incorporates mechanistic descriptions of temperature effects on vital rates into a stage-structured population model that realistically captures the temperature-induced variability in developmental delays that characterize ectotherm life cycles. 2. We find that populations experiencing seasonal temperature variation converge to a stage distribution whose intra-annual pattern remains invariant across years. As a result, the mean annual per capita growth rate also remains constant between years. The key insight is the mechanism that allows populations converge to a stationary stage distribution. Temperature effects on the biochemical processes (e.g. enzyme kinetics, hormonal regulation) that underlie life-history traits (reproduction, development and mortality) exhibit well-defined thermodynamical properties (e.g. changes in entropy and enthalpy) that lead to predictable outcomes (e.g. reduction in reaction rates or hormonal action at temperature extremes). As a result, life-history traits exhibit a systematic and predictable response to seasonal temperature variation. This in turn leads to temporally predictable temperature responses of the stage distribution and the per capita growth rate. 3. When climate warming causes an increase in the mean annual temperature and/or the amplitude of seasonal fluctuations, the population model predicts the mean annual per capita growth rate to decline to zero within 100 years when warming is slow relative to the developmental period of the organism (0.03-0.05°C per year) and to

  19. Population ecology of the gulf ribbed mussel across a salinity gradient: recruitment, growth and density

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Honig, Aaron; Supan, John; LaPeyre, Megan K.

    2015-01-01

    Benthic intertidal bivalves play an essential role in estuarine ecosystems by contributing to habitat provision, water filtration, and promoting productivity. As such, changes that impact population distributions and persistence of local bivalve populations may have large ecosystem level consequences. Recruitment, growth, mortality, population size structure and density of the gulf coast ribbed mussel, Geukensia granosissima, were examined across a salinity gradient in southeastern Louisiana. Data were collected along 100-m transects at interior and edge marsh plots located at duplicate sites in upper (salinity ~4 psu), central (salinity ~8 psu) and lower (salinity ~15 psu) Barataria Bay, Louisiana, U.S.A. Growth, mortality and recruitment were measured in established plots from April through November 2012. Mussel densities were greatest within the middle bay (salinity ~8) regardless of flooding regime, but strongly associated with highest stem densities of Juncus roemerianus vegetation. Mussel recruitment, growth, size and survival were significantly higher at mid and high salinity marsh edge sites as compared to all interior marsh and low salinity sites. The observed patterns of density, growth and mortality in Barataria Bay may reflect detrital food resource availability, host vegetation community distribution along the salinity gradient, salinity tolerance of the mussel, and reduced predation at higher salinity edge sites.

  20. Fifty years of population growth and absorption of labor in Brazil: from 1950 to 2000.

    PubMed

    Paiva, P D

    1997-01-01

    For a long time, the Brazilian population has grown at a relatively high rate, and only recently has the process of demographic transition intensified in the country. While the associated decline in fertility could result in a future decline in the size of the working-age population, it could also lead to an increase in female participation in the labor market. Brazil's economy is performing well, with gross domestic product (GDP) growing at an average annual rate of 7.1% during 1947-80. Marked growth in industrial employment opportunities has accompanied this growth in GDP. The size of the informal sector, however, has not decreased in similar proportion, while the 1981-83 economic crisis caused urban employment levels to drop, especially in industry and construction. Moreover, the level of rural-urban migration has increased and the agricultural employment index has fallen. The author evaluates past growth trends of the Economically Active Population (EAP) and of employment in Brazil, and assesses the potential growth of the labor force until the year 2000.

  1. Accelerated adhesion of grafted skins by laser-induced stress wave-based gene transfer of hepatocyte growth factor

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aizawa, Kazuya; Sato, Shunichi; Saitoh, Daizoh; Tsuda, Hitoshi; Ashida, Hiroshi; Obara, Minoru

    2009-02-01

    In our previous study, we delivered plasmid DNA coding for human hepatocyto growth factor (hHGF) to rat skin grafts based on laser-induced stress wave (LISW), by which production of CD31-positive cells in the grafted skins was found to be enhanced, suggesting improved angiogenesis. In this study, we validated the efficacy of this method to accelerate adhesion of grafted skins; reperfusion and reepithelialization in the grafted skins were examined. As a graft, dorsal skin of a rat was exsected and its subcutaneous fat was removed. Plasmid DNA expression vector for hHGF was injected into the graft; on its back surface a laser target with a transparent sheet for plasma confinement was placed, and irradiated with three nanosecond laser pulses at a laser fluence of 1.2 J/cm2 (532 nm; spot diameter, 3 mm) to generate LISWs. After the application of LISWs, the graft was transplanted onto its donor site. We evaluated blood flow by laser Doppler imaging and analyzed reepithelialization based on immunohistochemistry as a function of postgrafting time. It was found that both reperfusion and reepithelialization were significantly enhanced for the grafts with gene transfection than for normal grafts; reepithelialization was completed within 7 days after transplantation with the transfected grafts. These findings demonstrate that adhesion of grafted skins can be accelerated by delivering HGF gene to the grafts based on LISWs.

  2. Growth in Percutaneous Coronary Intervention Capacity Relative to Population and Disease Prevalence

    PubMed Central

    Langabeer, James R.; Henry, Timothy D.; Kereiakes, Dean J.; DelliFraine, Jami; Emert, Jamie; Wang, Zheng; Stuart, Leilani; King, Richard; Segrest, Wendy; Moyer, Peter; Jollis, James G.

    2013-01-01

    Background The access to and growth of percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) has not been fully explored with regard to geographic equity and need. Economic factors and timely access to primary PCI provide the impetus for growth in PCI centers, and this is balanced by volume standards and the benefits of regionalized care. Methods and Results Geospatial and statistical analyses were used to model capacity, growth, and access of PCI hospitals relative to population density and myocardial infarction (MI) prevalence at the state level. Longitudinal data were obtained for 2003–2011 from the American Hospital Association, the U.S. Census, and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) with geographical modeling to map PCI locations. The number of PCI centers has grown 21.2% over the last 8 years, with 39% of all hospitals having interventional cardiology capabilities. During the same time, the US population has grown 8.3%, from 217 million to 235 million, and MI prevalence rates have decreased from 4.0% to 3.7%. The most densely concentrated states have a ratio of 8.1 to 12.1 PCI facilities per million of population with significant variability in both MI prevalence and average distance between PCI facilities. Conclusions Over the last decade, the growth rate for PCI centers is 1.5× that of the population growth, while MI prevalence is decreasing. This has created geographic imbalances and access barriers with excess PCI centers relative to need in some regions and inadequate access in others. PMID:24166491

  3. Increasing Dengue Incidence in Singapore over the Past 40 Years: Population Growth, Climate and Mobility.

    PubMed

    Struchiner, Claudio Jose; Rocklöv, Joacim; Wilder-Smith, Annelies; Massad, Eduardo

    2015-01-01

    In Singapore, the frequency and magnitude of dengue epidemics have increased significantly over the past 40 years. It is important to understand the main drivers for the rapid increase in dengue incidence. We studied the relative contributions of putative drivers for the rise of dengue in Singapore: population growth, climate parameters and international air passenger arrivals from dengue endemic countries, for the time period of 1974 until 2011. We used multivariable Poisson regression models with the following predictors: Annual Population Size; Aedes Premises Index; Mean Annual Temperature; Minimum and Maximum Temperature Recorded in each year; Annual Precipitation and Annual Number of Air Passengers arriving from dengue-endemic South-East Asia to Singapore. The relative risk (RR) of the increase in dengue incidence due to population growth over the study period was 42.7, while the climate variables (mean and minimum temperature) together explained an RR of 7.1 (RR defined as risk at the end of the time period relative to the beginning and goodness of fit associated with the model leading to these estimates assessed by pseudo-R2 equal to 0.83). Estimating the extent of the contribution of these individual factors on the increasing dengue incidence, we found that population growth contributed to 86% while the residual 14% was explained by increase in temperature. We found no correlation with incoming air passenger arrivals into Singapore from dengue endemic countries. Our findings have significant implications for predicting future trends of the dengue epidemics given the rapid urbanization with population growth in many dengue endemic countries. It is time for policy-makers and the scientific community alike to pay more attention to the negative impact of urbanization and urban climate on diseases such as dengue.

  4. Increasing Dengue Incidence in Singapore over the Past 40 Years: Population Growth, Climate and Mobility.

    PubMed

    Struchiner, Claudio Jose; Rocklöv, Joacim; Wilder-Smith, Annelies; Massad, Eduardo

    2015-01-01

    In Singapore, the frequency and magnitude of dengue epidemics have increased significantly over the past 40 years. It is important to understand the main drivers for the rapid increase in dengue incidence. We studied the relative contributions of putative drivers for the rise of dengue in Singapore: population growth, climate parameters and international air passenger arrivals from dengue endemic countries, for the time period of 1974 until 2011. We used multivariable Poisson regression models with the following predictors: Annual Population Size; Aedes Premises Index; Mean Annual Temperature; Minimum and Maximum Temperature Recorded in each year; Annual Precipitation and Annual Number of Air Passengers arriving from dengue-endemic South-East Asia to Singapore. The relative risk (RR) of the increase in dengue incidence due to population growth over the study period was 42.7, while the climate variables (mean and minimum temperature) together explained an RR of 7.1 (RR defined as risk at the end of the time period relative to the beginning and goodness of fit associated with the model leading to these estimates assessed by pseudo-R2 equal to 0.83). Estimating the extent of the contribution of these individual factors on the increasing dengue incidence, we found that population growth contributed to 86% while the residual 14% was explained by increase in temperature. We found no correlation with incoming air passenger arrivals into Singapore from dengue endemic countries. Our findings have significant implications for predicting future trends of the dengue epidemics given the rapid urbanization with population growth in many dengue endemic countries. It is time for policy-makers and the scientific community alike to pay more attention to the negative impact of urbanization and urban climate on diseases such as dengue. PMID:26322517

  5. Increasing Dengue Incidence in Singapore over the Past 40 Years: Population Growth, Climate and Mobility

    PubMed Central

    Struchiner, Claudio Jose; Rocklöv, Joacim; Wilder-Smith, Annelies; Massad, Eduardo

    2015-01-01

    In Singapore, the frequency and magnitude of dengue epidemics have increased significantly over the past 40 years. It is important to understand the main drivers for the rapid increase in dengue incidence. We studied the relative contributions of putative drivers for the rise of dengue in Singapore: population growth, climate parameters and international air passenger arrivals from dengue endemic countries, for the time period of 1974 until 2011. We used multivariable Poisson regression models with the following predictors: Annual Population Size; Aedes Premises Index; Mean Annual Temperature; Minimum and Maximum Temperature Recorded in each year; Annual Precipitation and Annual Number of Air Passengers arriving from dengue-endemic South-East Asia to Singapore. The relative risk (RR) of the increase in dengue incidence due to population growth over the study period was 42.7, while the climate variables (mean and minimum temperature) together explained an RR of 7.1 (RR defined as risk at the end of the time period relative to the beginning and goodness of fit associated with the model leading to these estimates assessed by pseudo-R2 equal to 0.83). Estimating the extent of the contribution of these individual factors on the increasing dengue incidence, we found that population growth contributed to 86% while the residual 14% was explained by increase in temperature. We found no correlation with incoming air passenger arrivals into Singapore from dengue endemic countries. Our findings have significant implications for predicting future trends of the dengue epidemics given the rapid urbanization with population growth in many dengue endemic countries. It is time for policy-makers and the scientific community alike to pay more attention to the negative impact of urbanization and urban climate on diseases such as dengue. PMID:26322517

  6. Arabidopsis thaliana root elongation growth is sensitive to lunisolar tidal acceleration and may also be weakly correlated with geomagnetic variations

    PubMed Central

    Barlow, Peter W.; Fisahn, Joachim; Yazdanbakhsh, Nima; Moraes, Thiago A.; Khabarova, Olga V.; Gallep, Cristiano M.

    2013-01-01

    Background Correlative evidence suggests a relationship between the lunisolar tidal acceleration and the elongation rate of arabidopsis roots grown under free-running conditions of constant low light. Methods Seedlings of Arabidopsis thaliana were grown in a controlled-climate chamber maintained at a constant temperature and subjected to continuous low-level illumination from fluorescent tubes, conditions that approximate to a ‘free-running’ state in which most of the abiotic factors that entrain root growth rates are excluded. Elongation of evenly spaced, vertical primary roots was recorded continuously over periods of up to 14 d using high temporal- and spatial-resolution video imaging and were analysed in conjunction with geophysical variables. Key Results and Conclusions The results confirm the lunisolar tidal/root elongation relationship. Also presented are relationships between the hourly elongation rates and the contemporaneous variations in geomagnetic activity, as evaluated from the disturbance storm time and ap indices. On the basis of time series of root elongation rates that extend over ≥4 d and recorded at different seasons of the year, a provisional conclusion is that root elongation responds to variation in the lunisolar force and also appears to adjust in accordance with variations in the geomagnetic field. Thus, both lunisolar tidal acceleration and the geomagnetic field should be considered as modulators of root growth rate, alongside other, stronger and more well-known abiotic environmental regulators, and perhaps unexplored factors such as air ions. Major changes in atmospheric pressure are not considered to be a factor contributing to oscillations of root elongation rate. PMID:23532042

  7. Living bacteria rheology: Population growth, aggregation patterns, and collective behavior under different shear flows

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Patrício, P.; Almeida, P. L.; Portela, R.; Sobral, R. G.; Grilo, I. R.; Cidade, T.; Leal, C. R.

    2014-08-01

    The activity of growing living bacteria was investigated using real-time and in situ rheology—in stationary and oscillatory shear. Two different strains of the human pathogen Staphylococcus aureus—strain COL and its isogenic cell wall autolysis mutant, RUSAL9—were considered in this work. For low bacteria density, strain COL forms small clusters, while the mutant, presenting deficient cell separation, forms irregular larger aggregates. In the early stages of growth, when subjected to a stationary shear, the viscosity of the cultures of both strains increases with the population of cells. As the bacteria reach the exponential phase of growth, the viscosity of the cultures of the two strains follows different and rich behaviors, with no counterpart in the optical density or in the population's colony-forming units measurements. While the viscosity of strain COL culture keeps increasing during the exponential phase and returns close to its initial value for the late phase of growth, where the population stabilizes, the viscosity of the mutant strain culture decreases steeply, still in the exponential phase, remains constant for some time, and increases again, reaching a constant plateau at a maximum value for the late phase of growth. These complex viscoelastic behaviors, which were observed to be shear-stress-dependent, are a consequence of two coupled effects: the cell density continuous increase and its changing interacting properties. The viscous and elastic moduli of strain COL culture, obtained with oscillatory shear, exhibit power-law behaviors whose exponents are dependent on the bacteria growth stage. The viscous and elastic moduli of the mutant culture have complex behaviors, emerging from the different relaxation times that are associated with the large molecules of the medium and the self-organized structures of bacteria. Nevertheless, these behaviors reflect the bacteria growth stage.

  8. Association between mandibular posterior alveolar morphology and growth pattern in a Chinese population with normal occlusion*

    PubMed Central

    Han, Min; Wang, Rong-yang; Liu, Hong; Zhu, Xiu-juan; Wei, Fu-lan; Lv, Tao; Wang, Na-na; Hu, Li-hua; Li, Guo-ju; Liu, Dong-xu; Wang, Chun-ling

    2013-01-01

    Objective: To investigate the relationship between growth patterns and mandibular posterior tooth-alveolar bone complex morphology in a Chinese population with normal occlusion. Methods: Forty-five patients with normal occlusion (23 males, 22 females) were included in this study. Among these patients, 20 displayed the vertical growth pattern, and 20 had the horizontal growth pattern, while the remaining patients displayed the average growth pattern. All of the patients underwent dental cone beam computed tomography (CBCT), which included the region of the mandibular posterior teeth and the alveolar. A linear regression analysis and a correlation analysis between the facial height index (FHI) and the alveolar bone morphology were performed. Results: The inclination of the molars, the thickness of the cortical bone, and the height of the mandibular bone differed significantly between patients with the horizontal growth pattern and those with the vertical growth pattern (P<0.05). Significant positive correlations were found between: the FHI and the inclination of the molars; the FHI and the thickness of the cortical bone; and the FHI and the height of the mandibular bone. Conclusions: The mandibular posterior tooth-alveolar bone complex morphology may be affected by growth patterns. PMID:23303628

  9. The effects of population density on juvenile growth rate in white-tailed deer.

    PubMed

    Barr, Brannon; Wolverton, Steve

    2014-10-01

    Animal body size is driven by habitat quality, food availability, and nutrition. Adult size can relate to birth weight, to length of the ontogenetic growth period, and/or to the rate of growth. Data requirements are high for studying these growth mechanisms, but large datasets exist for some game species. In North America, large harvest datasets exist for white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), but such data are collected under a variety of conditions and are generally dismissed for ecological research beyond local population and habitat management. We contend that such data are useful for studying the ecology of white-tailed deer growth and body size when analyzed at ordinal scale. In this paper, we test the response of growth rate to food availability by fitting a logarithmic equation that estimates growth rate only to harvest data from Fort Hood, Texas, and track changes in growth rate over time. Results of this ordinal scale model are compared to previously published models that include additional parameters, such as birth weight and adult weight. It is shown that body size responds to food availability by variation in growth rate. Models that estimate multiple parameters may not work with harvest data because they are prone to error, which renders estimates from complex models too variable to detect interannual changes in growth rate that this ordinal scale model captures. This model can be applied to harvest data, from which inferences about factors that influence animal growth and body size (e.g., habitat quality and nutritional availability) can be drawn.

  10. The Effects of Population Density on Juvenile Growth Rate in White-Tailed Deer

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barr, Brannon; Wolverton, Steve

    2014-10-01

    Animal body size is driven by habitat quality, food availability, and nutrition. Adult size can relate to birth weight, to length of the ontogenetic growth period, and/or to the rate of growth. Data requirements are high for studying these growth mechanisms, but large datasets exist for some game species. In North America, large harvest datasets exist for white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus), but such data are collected under a variety of conditions and are generally dismissed for ecological research beyond local population and habitat management. We contend that such data are useful for studying the ecology of white-tailed deer growth and body size when analyzed at ordinal scale. In this paper, we test the response of growth rate to food availability by fitting a logarithmic equation that estimates growth rate only to harvest data from Fort Hood, Texas, and track changes in growth rate over time. Results of this ordinal scale model are compared to previously published models that include additional parameters, such as birth weight and adult weight. It is shown that body size responds to food availability by variation in growth rate. Models that estimate multiple parameters may not work with harvest data because they are prone to error, which renders estimates from complex models too variable to detect interannual changes in growth rate that this ordinal scale model captures. This model can be applied to harvest data, from which inferences about factors that influence animal growth and body size (e.g., habitat quality and nutritional availability) can be drawn.

  11. The demographic effects of income redistribution and accelerated economic growth revisited.

    PubMed

    Flegg, A T

    1988-05-01

    The statistical basis of Winegarden's conclusions, i.e., that an egalitarian redistribution of incomes in a typical low-income country would cause a substantial increase in fertility, was examined in detail in that it casts doubt about the validity of all previous econometric studies based on international cross-sectional data. Winegarden's model is reproduced as are his findings. The reexamination of Winegarden's (1984) findings revealed 3 areas which suggest that his conclusions may require modification. In regard to family planning, Winegarden's results indicated that the introduction of a state-supported family planning program would cause a large decline in natality after about a decade. A much weaker relationship emerged when the fertility equation was recomputed using a more appropriate economic method. Further, the results were highly sensitive to changes in the threshold year used to classify countries with regard to family planning programs. It is argued that a qualitative index devised by Mauldin and Berelson (1978) provides a more reliable way to measure the effects of such programs than the binary variable Winegarden used. The use of this index fundamentally altered the findings regarding economic growth and income distribution. According to Winegarden's calculations, faster economic growth would have a pronatal impact in the more economically advanced nations yet help to reduce fertility for those countries in the early stages of development. In contrast, it was found that variations in the rate of economic growth had no discernible impact on natality. Winegarden's results suggested that an egalitarian redistribution of incomes would cause substantial increase in fertility in a typical low-income country, but it was found here that these distributional effects would be fairly modest over a wide range of incomes. Consequently, it appears that any concern about the demographic effects of greater equality in less-developed countries is not well

  12. Circadian Disruption Accelerates Tumor Growth and Angio/Stromagenesis through a Wnt Signaling Pathway

    PubMed Central

    Yasuniwa, Yoshihiro; Izumi, Hiroto; Wang, Ke-Yong; Shimajiri, Shohei; Sasaguri, Yasuyuki; Kawai, Kazuaki; Kasai, Hiroshi; Shimada, Takashi; Miyake, Koichi; Kashiwagi, Eiji; Hirano, Gen; Kidani, Akihiko; Akiyama, Masaki; Han, Bin; Wu, Ying; Ieiri, Ichiro; Higuchi, Shun; Kohno, Kimitoshi

    2010-01-01

    Epidemiologic studies show a high incidence of cancer in shift workers, suggesting a possible relationship between circadian rhythms and tumorigenesis. However, the precise molecular mechanism played by circadian rhythms in tumor progression is not known. To identify the possible mechanisms underlying tumor progression related to circadian rhythms, we set up nude mouse xenograft models. HeLa cells were injected in nude mice and nude mice were moved to two different cases, one case is exposed to a 24-hour light cycle (L/L), the other is a more “normal” 12-hour light/dark cycle (L/D). We found a significant increase in tumor volume in the L/L group compared with the L/D group. In addition, tumor microvessels and stroma were strongly increased in L/L mice. Although there was a hypervascularization in L/L tumors, there was no associated increase in the production of vascular endothelial cell growth factor (VEGF). DNA microarray analysis showed enhanced expression of WNT10A, and our subsequent study revealed that WNT10A stimulates the growth of both microvascular endothelial cells and fibroblasts in tumors from light-stressed mice, along with marked increases in angio/stromagenesis. Only the tumor stroma stained positive for WNT10A and WNT10A is also highly expressed in keloid dermal fibroblasts but not in normal dermal fibroblasts indicated that WNT10A may be a novel angio/stromagenic growth factor. These findings suggest that circadian disruption induces the progression of malignant tumors via a Wnt signaling pathway. PMID:21203463

  13. Mammalian Herbivores Alter the Population Growth and Spatial Establishment of an Early-Establishing Grassland Species.

    PubMed

    Sullivan, Lauren L; Danielson, Brent J; Harpole, W Stanley

    2016-01-01

    Plant-herbivore interactions influence the establishment context of plant species, as herbivores alter the community context in which individual species establish, and the spatial relationship between individuals and their source population as plants invade. This relationship can be described using an establishment kernel, which takes into account movement through seed dispersal, and subsequent establishment of adults. Mammalian herbivores are hypothesized to influence plant population growth and establishment through a combination of consumption of seeds and seedlings, and movement of seeds. While the movement abilities of plants are well known, we have very few empirical mechanistic tests of how biotic factors like mammalian herbivores influence this spread potential. As herbivores of all sizes are abundant on the landscape, we asked the question, how do mammalian herbivores influence the population growth, spatial establishment, and the community establishment context of an early-recruiting native prairie legume, Chamaecrista fasciculata? We planted C. fasciculata in source populations within a four-acre tallgrass prairie restoration in plots with and without herbivores, and monitored its establishment with respect to distance from the source populations. We found that herbivores decreased population growth, and decreased the mean and range establishment distance. Additionally, C. fasciculata established more often without herbivores, and when surrounded by weedy, annual species. Our results provide insight into how the interactions between plants and herbivores can alter the spatial dynamics of developing plant communities, which is vital for colonization and range spread with fragmentation and climate change. Mammalian herbivores have the potential to both slow rates of establishment, but also determine the types of plant communities that surround invading species. Therefore, it is essential to consider the herbivore community when attempting to restore

  14. Mammalian Herbivores Alter the Population Growth and Spatial Establishment of an Early-Establishing Grassland Species.

    PubMed

    Sullivan, Lauren L; Danielson, Brent J; Harpole, W Stanley

    2016-01-01

    Plant-herbivore interactions influence the establishment context of plant species, as herbivores alter the community context in which individual species establish, and the spatial relationship between individuals and their source population as plants invade. This relationship can be described using an establishment kernel, which takes into account movement through seed dispersal, and subsequent establishment of adults. Mammalian herbivores are hypothesized to influence plant population growth and establishment through a combination of consumption of seeds and seedlings, and movement of seeds. While the movement abilities of plants are well known, we have very few empirical mechanistic tests of how biotic factors like mammalian herbivores influence this spread potential. As herbivores of all sizes are abundant on the landscape, we asked the question, how do mammalian herbivores influence the population growth, spatial establishment, and the community establishment context of an early-recruiting native prairie legume, Chamaecrista fasciculata? We planted C. fasciculata in source populations within a four-acre tallgrass prairie restoration in plots with and without herbivores, and monitored its establishment with respect to distance from the source populations. We found that herbivores decreased population growth, and decreased the mean and range establishment distance. Additionally, C. fasciculata established more often without herbivores, and when surrounded by weedy, annual species. Our results provide insight into how the interactions between plants and herbivores can alter the spatial dynamics of developing plant communities, which is vital for colonization and range spread with fragmentation and climate change. Mammalian herbivores have the potential to both slow rates of establishment, but also determine the types of plant communities that surround invading species. Therefore, it is essential to consider the herbivore community when attempting to restore

  15. Mammalian Herbivores Alter the Population Growth and Spatial Establishment of an Early-Establishing Grassland Species

    PubMed Central

    Sullivan, Lauren L.; Danielson, Brent J.; Harpole, W. Stanley

    2016-01-01

    Plant-herbivore interactions influence the establishment context of plant species, as herbivores alter the community context in which individual species establish, and the spatial relationship between individuals and their source population as plants invade. This relationship can be described using an establishment kernel, which takes into account movement through seed dispersal, and subsequent establishment of adults. Mammalian herbivores are hypothesized to influence plant population growth and establishment through a combination of consumption of seeds and seedlings, and movement of seeds. While the movement abilities of plants are well known, we have very few empirical mechanistic tests of how biotic factors like mammalian herbivores influence this spread potential. As herbivores of all sizes are abundant on the landscape, we asked the question, how do mammalian herbivores influence the population growth, spatial establishment, and the community establishment context of an early-recruiting native prairie legume, Chamaecrista fasciculata? We planted C. fasciculata in source populations within a four-acre tallgrass prairie restoration in plots with and without herbivores, and monitored its establishment with respect to distance from the source populations. We found that herbivores decreased population growth, and decreased the mean and range establishment distance. Additionally, C. fasciculata established more often without herbivores, and when surrounded by weedy, annual species. Our results provide insight into how the interactions between plants and herbivores can alter the spatial dynamics of developing plant communities, which is vital for colonization and range spread with fragmentation and climate change. Mammalian herbivores have the potential to both slow rates of establishment, but also determine the types of plant communities that surround invading species. Therefore, it is essential to consider the herbivore community when attempting to restore

  16. Effects of population increase on cui-ui growth and maturation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Scoppettone, G.G.; Rissler, P.H.

    2007-01-01

    Cui-ui Chasmistes cujus is endemic to Pyramid Lake, Nevada. The cui-ui population declined during much of the 20th century as a result of water diversion and the formation of a shallow and virtually impassable delta at the mouth of the Truckee River, its spawning habitat. The population increased more than 10-fold to more than 1 million adults after access to the river was restored, creating a period of relatively higher density. This change presented the opportunity to test intraspecific density effects on cui-ui age and length at maturity and on growth. We also compared the year-class structure of the adult population before and after improved access. At low density, cui-ui mean age at maturation was 9.2 years for males and 9.6 for females; at high density, it was significantly higher: 11.8 years for males and 12.0 for females. There was no significant change in mean fork length at maturity related to population increase. Growth patterns differed between high and low density, the low-density fish growing faster than high-density fish before their respective mean age of maturity; past their mean age at maturity, high-density fish grew significantly faster than low-density fish. Fish in both density periods reached similar lengths by about 19-20 years of age. Year-class structure for both density periods consisted of strong year-classes, which predominated the adult population for several years.

  17. The evolution of paternal care can lead to population growth in artificial societies.

    PubMed

    Salgado, Mauricio

    2015-09-01

    Evolutionary models of paternal care predict that when female reproductive effort is higher than male reproductive effort, selection might favour the emergence of unconditional male cooperation towards females, even when the latter group does not reciprocate. However, previous models have assumed constant population sizes, so the ecology of interacting individuals and its effects on population dynamics have been neglected. This paper reports an agent-based model that incorporates ecological dynamics into evolutionary game dynamics by allowing populations to vary. As previous models demonstrate, paternal care only evolves when female reproductive effort is higher than that of males, and the optimal strategy for females is to exploit male unconditional cooperation. The model also shows that evolution of this behaviour drives some simulations towards regimes of population growth. Thanks to the evolution of paternal care, females׳ inter-birth intervals are shortened and causing them to reproduce faster. Thus, it is suggested that the evolution of paternal care in species with differential reproductive effort between sexes could be associated to population growth. Nevertheless, the modelled evolutionary dynamics are stochastic, so differences in reproductive effort are necessary but not sufficient conditions for the evolution of paternal care.

  18. Population Growth of Pratylenchus penetrans on Winter Cover Crops Grown in the Pacific Northwest

    PubMed Central

    Forge, T. A.; Ingham, R. E.; Kaufman, D.; Pinkerton, J. N.

    2000-01-01

    Population growth of Pratylenchus penetrans on 13 fall and winter cover crops was studied in the greenhouse and field. All crops except oat cv. Saia supported population growth of P. penetrans in greenhouse experiments, although the response of P. penetrans to oat cv. Saia varied considerably between experiments. The mean ratio of the final population density/initial population density (Pf/Pi) after 16 weeks for P. penetrans added to a greenhouse soil mix was 0.09, whereas Pf/Pi values after 10 weeks for two experiments with naturally infested soil were 0.95 and 2.3. Although P. penetrans increased on sudangrass cv. Trudan 8 and sudangrass × sorghum hybrid cv. SS 222, subsequent incorporation of sudangrass vegetation into soil reduced P. penetrans populations to preplant levels. Field experiments were inconclusive but suggested that oat cv. Saia or rye cv. Wheeler may be better choices for winter cover than weed-contaminated fallow or other crops on P. penetrans-infested sites in the Pacific Northwest. PMID:19270948

  19. A Novel Aldehyde Dehydrogenase-3 Activator (Alda-89) Protects Submandibular Gland Function from Irradiation without Accelerating Tumor Growth

    PubMed Central

    Xiao, Nan; Cao, Hongbin; Chen, Che-Hong; Kong, Christina S.; Ali, Rehan; Chan, Cato; Sirjani, Davud; Graves, Edward; Koong, Albert; Giaccia, Amato; Mochly-Rosen, Daria; Le, Quynh-Thu

    2013-01-01

    Purpose To determine the effect of Alda-89 (an ALDH3 activitor) on (1) the function of irradiated (RT) submandibular gland (SMG) in mice, (2) its toxicity profile and (3) its effect on the growth of head and neck cancer (HNC) in vitro and in vivo. Experimental Design Adult mice were infused with Alda-89 or vehicle before, during and after RT. Saliva secretion was monitored weekly. Hematology, metabolic profile and post-mortem evaluation for toxicity were examined at the time of sacrifice. Alda-89 or vehicle was applied to HNC cell lines in vitro, and SCID mice transplanted with HNC in vivo with or without radiation; HNC growth was monitored. The ALDH3A1 and ALDH3A2 protein expression was evaluated in 89 HNC patients and correlated to freedom from relapse (FFR) and overall survival (OS). Results Alda-89 infusion significantly resulted in more whole saliva production and a higher percentage of preserved acini after RT compared to vehicle control. There was no difference in the complete blood count, metabolic profile, and major organ morphology between the Alda-89 and vehicle groups. Compared to vehicle control, Alda-89 treatment did not accelerate HNC cell proliferation in vitro, nor did it affect tumor growth in vivo with or without RT. Higher expression of ALDH3A1 or ALDH3A2 was not significantly associated with worse FFR or OS in either HPV-positive or HPV-negative group. Conclusion Alda-89 preserves salivary function after RT without affecting HNC growth or causing measurable toxicity in mice. It is a promising candidate to mitigate RT-related xerostomia. PMID:23812668

  20. The Contribution of Population Health and Demographic Change to Economic Growth in China and India

    PubMed Central

    Bloom, David E.; Canning, David; Hu, Linlin; Liu, Yuanli; Mahal, Ajay; Yip, Winnie

    2010-01-01

    We find that a cross-country model of economic growth successfully tracks the growth takeoffs in China and India. The major drivers of the predicted takeoffs are improved health, increased openness to trade, and a rising labor force-to-population ratio due to fertility decline. We also explore the effect of the reallocation of labor from low-productivity agriculture to the higher-productivity industry and service sectors. Including the money value of longevity improvements in a measure of full income reduces the gap between the magnitude of China's takeoff relative to India's due to the relative stagnation in life expectancy in China since 1980. PMID:20419074

  1. The factors of urban population growth: net inmigration versus natural increase.

    PubMed

    Ledent, J

    1982-10-01

    "As a country evolves from a traditional to an advanced society, the part of urban growth that is due to net inmigration follows a simple pattern, which can be described by an inverted U-shaped curve: it first increases, then passes through a maximum, and decreases thereafter. This hypothesis is confirmed by quantitative analysis using time-series and cross-section data. The analysis suggests that in the second half of this century natural increase often provides a slightly higher contribution to urban population growth than net inmigration." (summary in FRE, ITA, JPN, )

  2. Sonar biparietal diameter. I. Analysis of percentile growth differences in two normal populations using same methodology.

    PubMed

    Sabbagha, R E; Barton, F B; Barton, B A

    1976-10-15

    BPD measurements were obtained from 107 white and 91 black normal gravid women, with established dates, between weeks 16 to 40 of pregnancy. The sonar methodology used is uniform, employing nonpersistent image scanning with electronic calipers. It is noted that the BPD percentile growth patterns derived from these racially different fetuses are alike. Similarly, the fetal age distributions corresponding to white vs. black fetal BPD's show minor differences. From a clinical standpoint, therefore, one percentile curve is constructed for both populations. It is concluded that the BPD differences observed in the currently used growth curves, reported by different investigators, are related to nonuniformity in sonar BPD methodology.

  3. The probiotic mixture VSL#3 accelerates gastric ulcer healing by stimulating vascular endothelial growth factor.

    PubMed

    Dharmani, Poonam; De Simone, Claudio; Chadee, Kris

    2013-01-01

    Studies assessing the effect and mechanism of probiotics on diseases of the upper gastrointestinal tract (GI) including gastric ulcers are limited despite extensive work and promising results of this therapeutic option for other GI diseases. In this study, we investigated the mechanisms by which the probiotic mixture VSL#3 (a mixture of eight probiotic bacteria including Lactobacilli, Bifidobacteria and Streptococcus species) heals acetic acid induced gastric ulcer in rats. VSL#3 was administered orally at low (6 × 10(9) bacteria) or high (1.2 × 10(10) bacteria) dosages from day 3 after ulcer induction for 14 consecutive days. VSL#3 treatments significantly enhanced gastric ulcer healing in a dose-dependent manner. To assess the mechanism(s) whereby VSL#3 exerted its protective effects, we quantified the gene expression of several pro-inflammatory cytokines, protein and expression of stomach mucin-Muc5ac, regulatory cytokine-IL-10, COX-2 and various growth factors. Of all the components examined, only expression and protein production of VEGF was increased 332-fold on day 7 in the ulcerated tissues of animals treated with VSL#3. Predictably, animals treated with VEGF neutralizing antibody significantly delayed gastric ulcer healing in VSL#3 treated animals. This is the first report to demonstrate high efficacy of the probiotic mixture VSL#3 in enhancing gastric ulcer healing. Probiotic efficacy was effective at higher concentrations of VSL#3 by specifically increasing the expression and production of angiogenesis promoting growth factors, primarily VEGF. PMID:23484048

  4. Population Growth in New Hampshire during the Nineteenth and Twentieth Centuries. Studies in New England Geography, Number 1.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hobart, Christine L.

    This paper traces the shifts in New Hampshire's state and county population during the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, focusing on the growth of urban centers and industry. From 1790 to 1840 most of New Hampshire's population growth was agricultural despite the beginnings of industrialization and urbanization. These processes greatly…

  5. On the bubble? With healthcare job growth outstripping population in aging Rust Belt cities, some question the trend's durability.

    PubMed

    Carlson, Joe; Kutscher, Beth

    2013-03-01

    Aging Rust Belt cities are some of the leaders in healthcare job growth despite stagnant or decreasing populations, even amid mounting pressure to cut healthcare costs. Areas seeing rapid population growth aren't as dependent on healthcare. "Cities that are growing quickly are most likely adding diversified industries," says Dr. Sheldon Retchin, of the Virginia Commonwealth University Health System.

  6. The Association between Natural Amenities, Rural Population Growth, and Long-Term Residents' Economic Well-Being

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hunter, Lori M; Boardman, Jason D.; Saint Onge, Jarron M.

    2005-01-01

    Population growth in rural areas characterized by high levels of natural amenities has recently received substantial research attention. A noted concern with amenity-driven rural population growth is its potential to raise local costs-of-living while yielding only low-wage service sector employment for long-term residents. The work presented here…

  7. Age, growth, and mortality of introduced flathead catfish in Atlantic rivers and a review of other populations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kwak, T.J.; Pine, William E.; Waters, D.S.

    2006-01-01

    Knowledge of individual growth and mortality rates of an introduced fish population is required to determine the success and degree of establishment as well as to predict the fish's impact on native fauna. The age and growth of flathead catfish Pylodictis olivaris have been studied extensively in the species' native and introduced ranges, and estimates have varied widely. We quantified individual growth rates and age structure of three introduced flathead catfish populations in North Carolina's Atlantic slope rivers using sagittal otoliths, determined trends in growth rates over time, compared these estimates among rivers in native and introduced ranges, and determined total mortality rates for each population. Growth was significantly faster in the Northeast Cape Fear River (NECFR) than in the Lumber and Neuse rivers. Fish in the NECFR grew to a total length of 700 mm by age 7, whereas fish in the Neuse and Lumber river populations reached this length by 8 and 10 years, respectively. The growth rates of fish in all three rivers were consistently higher than those of native riverine populations, similar to those of native reservoir populations, and slower than those of other introduced riverine populations. In general, recent cohorts (1998-2001 year-classes) in these three rivers exhibited slower growth among all ages than did cohorts previous to the 1998 year-class. The annual total mortality rate was similar among the three rivers, ranging from 0.16 to 0.20. These mortality estimates are considerably lower than those from the Missouri and Mississippi rivers, suggesting relatively low fishing mortality for these introduced populations. Overall, flathead catfish populations in reservoirs grow faster than those in rivers, the growth rates of introduced populations exceed those of native populations, and eastern United States populations grow faster than those in western states. Such trends constitute critical information for understanding and managing local

  8. Population Growth of the Generalist Mite Tyrophagus putrescentiae (Acari: Acaridida) Following Adaptation to High- or Low-Fat and High- or Low-Protein Diets and the Effect of Dietary Switch.

    PubMed

    Erban, Tomas; Rybanska, Dagmar; Hubert, Jan

    2015-12-01

    Tyrophagus putrescentiae (Schrank, 1781) is a cosmopolitan generalist feeder that prefers foodstuffs of high-fat and high-protein content. Our aim was to investigate the population growth of T. putrescentiae after long-term nutritional adaptation to two distinct diets that are commonly infested in the synanthropic environment. Crushed dry dog food kernels provided a high-fat, high-protein, and low-carbohydrate diet, whereas wholemeal spelt flour provided a low-protein, low-fat, and high-carbohydrate diet. After >6 mo of nutritional adaptation, each of the two populations were used in two 28-d population growth tests: one that mites remained on their adaptation diet (homogenous diet treatment) and one that mites underwent a dietary switch (dietary switch treatment). Dietary treatment, nutritional adaptation, and their interaction all significantly influenced population growth. The homogenous diet treatment showed 7.5 times higher growth on the dog food diet than on flour. In the dietary switch, flour-adapted mites switching to dog food experienced five times greater population growth than the flour-adapted mites remained on flour, whereas the dog food-adapted population showed a 2.8-fold decrease in population growth when transferred to the flour. A comparison of means between the two dietary switch treatments showed a 1.9-fold higher population growth after flour-adapted mites were shifted to dog food than when the dog food-adapted mites were shifted to flour. We demonstrated that T. putrescentiae is able survive and reproduce for many generations on dry dog food and flour with different levels of success. High-fat and -protein food accelerated T. putrescentiae population growth compared with the high-carbohydrate diet.

  9. Models for optimal harvest with convex function of growth rate of a population

    SciTech Connect

    Lyashenko, O.I.

    1995-12-10

    Two models for growth of a population, which are described by a Cauchy problem for an ordinary differential equation with right-hand side depending on the population size and time, are investigated. The first model is time-discrete, i.e., the moments of harvest are fixed and discrete. The second model is time-continuous, i.e., a crop is harvested continuously in time. For autonomous systems, the second model is a particular case of the variational model for optimal control with constraints investigated in. However, the prerequisites and the method of investigation are somewhat different, for they are based on Lemma 1 presented below. In this paper, the existence and uniqueness theorem for the solution of the discrete and continuous problems of optimal harvest is proved, and the corresponding algorithms are presented. The results obtained are illustrated by a model for growth of the light-requiring green alga Chlorella.

  10. Carbon dioxide enrichment alters plant community structure and accelerates shrub growth in the shortgrass steppe.

    PubMed

    Morgan, Jack A; Milchunas, Daniel G; LeCain, Daniel R; West, Mark; Mosier, Arvin R

    2007-09-11

    A hypothesis has been advanced that the incursion of woody plants into world grasslands over the past two centuries has been driven in part by increasing carbon dioxide concentration, [CO(2)], in Earth's atmosphere. Unlike the warm season forage grasses they are displacing, woody plants have a photosynthetic metabolism and carbon allocation patterns that are responsive to CO(2), and many have tap roots that are more effective than grasses for reaching deep soil water stores that can be enhanced under elevated CO(2). However, this commonly cited hypothesis has little direct support from manipulative experimentation and competes with more traditional theories of shrub encroachment involving climate change, management, and fire. Here, we show that, although doubling [CO(2)] over the Colorado shortgrass steppe had little impact on plant species diversity, it resulted in an increasingly dissimilar plant community over the 5-year experiment compared with plots maintained at present-day [CO(2)]. Growth at the doubled [CO(2)] resulted in an approximately 40-fold increase in aboveground biomass and a 20-fold increase in plant cover of Artemisia frigida Willd, a common subshrub of some North American and Asian grasslands. This CO(2)-induced enhancement of plant growth, among the highest yet reported, provides evidence from a native grassland suggesting that rising atmospheric [CO(2)] may be contributing to the shrubland expansions of the past 200 years. Encroachment of shrubs into grasslands is an important problem facing rangeland managers and ranchers; this process replaces grasses, the preferred forage of domestic livestock, with species that are unsuitable for domestic livestock grazing. PMID:17785422

  11. Adding Biotin to Parenteral Nutrition Solutions Without Lipid Accelerates the Growth of Candida albicans

    PubMed Central

    Kuwahara, Takashi; Kaneda, Shinya; Shimono, Kazuyuki

    2016-01-01

    Background: We have previously demonstrated that Candida albicans requires multivitamins (MVs) or lipid to increase rapidly in parenteral nutrition (PN) solutions. In this study, in detail, the effects of vitamins on the growth of C. albicans in PN solutions without lipid were investigated. Methods: In the 1st experiment, a commercial PN solution without lipid was supplemented with water-soluble vitamins (SVs: vitamins B1, B2, B6, B12 and C, folic acid, nicotinamide, biotin and panthenol), water-insoluble vitamins (IVs: vitamins A, D, E and K) or both (MVs). In the 2nd experiment, the test solutions were prepared by supplementing the PN solution with one of each or all of the SVs. In the 3rd experiment, another commercial peripheral PN (PPN) solution without lipid was supplemented with SVs, nicotinic acid, biotin or both nicotinic acid and biotin. In each of the experiments, a specified number of C. albicans organisms was added to each test solution, and all of the test solutions were allowed to stand at room temperature (23-26ºC). The number of C. albicans was counted at 0, 24, 48 and 72 hours after the addition of the organism. Results: In the 1st experiment, the C. albicans increased rapidly in the PN solution supplemented with the SVs, but increased slowly without the SVs, regardless of the addition of the IVs. In the 2nd experiment, the C. albicans increased rapidly in the PN solution supplemented with the SVs or biotin, but increased slowly with each of the other water-soluble vitamins. In the 3rd experiment, the C. albicans increased rapidly in the PPN solution supplemented with the SVs or biotin, but increased slowly with the addition of nicotinic acid. Conclusions: These results suggested that adding MVs or SVs to PN solutions without lipid promotes the growth of C. albicans, and that this effect is mostly attributable to biotin. PMID:27648003

  12. Adding Biotin to Parenteral Nutrition Solutions Without Lipid Accelerates the Growth of Candida albicans

    PubMed Central

    Kuwahara, Takashi; Kaneda, Shinya; Shimono, Kazuyuki

    2016-01-01

    Background: We have previously demonstrated that Candida albicans requires multivitamins (MVs) or lipid to increase rapidly in parenteral nutrition (PN) solutions. In this study, in detail, the effects of vitamins on the growth of C. albicans in PN solutions without lipid were investigated. Methods: In the 1st experiment, a commercial PN solution without lipid was supplemented with water-soluble vitamins (SVs: vitamins B1, B2, B6, B12 and C, folic acid, nicotinamide, biotin and panthenol), water-insoluble vitamins (IVs: vitamins A, D, E and K) or both (MVs). In the 2nd experiment, the test solutions were prepared by supplementing the PN solution with one of each or all of the SVs. In the 3rd experiment, another commercial peripheral PN (PPN) solution without lipid was supplemented with SVs, nicotinic acid, biotin or both nicotinic acid and biotin. In each of the experiments, a specified number of C. albicans organisms was added to each test solution, and all of the test solutions were allowed to stand at room temperature (23-26ºC). The number of C. albicans was counted at 0, 24, 48 and 72 hours after the addition of the organism. Results: In the 1st experiment, the C. albicans increased rapidly in the PN solution supplemented with the SVs, but increased slowly without the SVs, regardless of the addition of the IVs. In the 2nd experiment, the C. albicans increased rapidly in the PN solution supplemented with the SVs or biotin, but increased slowly with each of the other water-soluble vitamins. In the 3rd experiment, the C. albicans increased rapidly in the PPN solution supplemented with the SVs or biotin, but increased slowly with the addition of nicotinic acid. Conclusions: These results suggested that adding MVs or SVs to PN solutions without lipid promotes the growth of C. albicans, and that this effect is mostly attributable to biotin.

  13. Deferment of marriage and childbearing and effective control of population growth.

    PubMed

    Yang, S; Gu, B

    1991-08-01

    Deferment of marriage and childbearing reduces the number of children born by a couple in their lifetime and is the best way to depress population growth. This decreases the number of births in a given period and drops the fertility rate, which slows down the growth rate and size of the population. The extent of the impact varies with the parity specific age composition of women. Over a 100-year period, when the 1st birth is at 20 years and there are 2 children/family, the family size would be 8. When the 1st birth is at age 25, the family size becomes 6. Currently, China is encountering the peak of the baby boom. Unchecked population growth by these cohorts would mean the emergence of another baby boom. The consequences for the social and economic sectors would be great. With deferment of childbearing, the age composition of the population will be improved. Prior success in the practice of late marriage and late childbearing occurred in 1970s. Marriage age was raised from 22 years to 24 years by the late 1970s, which averted 30 million births within a decade. Unfortunately, the trends during the 1980s were a return to early marriage and childbearing such that by end of the 1980s 10% of married women had given birth by the age of 20. Had late marriage and late childbearing persisted through the 1980s, the mid-1991 population would have been 1.13 billion instead of 1.15 billion. The huge population requires a slower growth rate, but limiting the births/women has been beset with difficulties. All provinces need to target slower growth. Data from the 1988 National Sampling Survey of Fertility and Contraception reveal that 12 provinces had lowered age at 1st marriage. If the childbearing age can be raised by even 6 months reaching 23.5 years, 6 million births will be averted in the next 5 years. A 1-year to 24 years yields 10 million fewer births. It is reasonable to assume that it would be easier to convince young couples to defer their age at 1st births by 6 months

  14. Accelerated growth of skin carcinoma following fludarabine therapy for chronic lymphocytic leukemia.

    PubMed

    Rashid, Kamran; Ng, Richard; Mastan, Alina; Sager, Dianne; Hirschman, Richard

    2005-07-01

    We present four patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia treated with fludarabine, who developed aggressive skin cancer after years of quiescence, a short time after institution of treatment. Their leukemias responded well to therapy with fludarabine with initial treatment as well as relapse. Three patients had recurrence with basal cell carcinomas with multiple, rapidly growing tumors and one had recurrence of both basal and squamous cancers and eventually died of metastatic squamous cell carcinoma. Fludarabine induces prolonged period of lymphopenia, affecting especially the T cell population, which is crucial in the defense against skin cancers. There appears to be a direct association between fludarabine and the flare up of skin cancers in these patients, possibly analogous to the increased incidence of these malignancies in patients on chronic cyclosporine immunosuppression.

  15. Accelerated adhesion of grafted skin by laser-induced stress wave-based gene transfer of hepatocyte growth factor

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aizawa, Kazuya; Sato, Shunichi; Terakawa, Mitsuhiro; Saitoh, Daizoh; Tsuda, Hitoshi; Ashida, Hiroshi; Obara, Minoru

    2009-11-01

    Gene therapy using wound healing-associated growth factor gene has received much attention as a new strategy for improving the outcome of tissue transplantation. We delivered plasmid DNA coding for human hepatocyte growth factor (hHGF) to rat free skin grafts by the use of laser-induced stress waves (LISWs); autografting was performed with the grafts. Systematic analysis was conducted to evaluate the adhesion properties of the grafted tissue; angiogenesis, cell proliferation, and reepithelialization were assessed by immunohistochemistry, and reperfusion was measured by laser Doppler imaging as a function of time after grafting. Both the level of angiogenesis on day 3 after grafting and the increased ratio of blood flow on day 4 to that on day 3 were significantly higher than those in five control groups: grafting with hHGF gene injection alone, grafting with control plasmid vector injection alone, grafting with LISW application alone, grafting with LISW application after control plasmid vector injection, and normal grafting. Reepithelialization was almost completed on day 7 even at the center of the graft with LISW application after hHGF gene injection, while it was not for the grafts of the five control groups. These findings demonstrate the validity of our LISW-based HGF gene transfection to accelerate the adhesion of grafted skins.

  16. Fetal Growth and Risk of Stillbirth: A Population-Based Case–Control Study

    PubMed Central

    Bukowski, Radek; Hansen, Nellie I.; Willinger, Marian; Reddy, Uma M.; Parker, Corette B.; Pinar, Halit; Silver, Robert M.; Dudley, Donald J.; Stoll, Barbara J.; Saade, George R.; Koch, Matthew A.; Rowland Hogue, Carol J.; Varner, Michael W.; Conway, Deborah L.; Coustan, Donald; Goldenberg, Robert L.

    2014-01-01

    Background Stillbirth is strongly related to impaired fetal growth. However, the relationship between fetal growth and stillbirth is difficult to determine because of uncertainty in the timing of death and confounding characteristics affecting normal fetal growth. Methods and Findings We conducted a population-based case–control study of all stillbirths and a representative sample of live births in 59 hospitals in five geographic areas in the US. Fetal growth abnormalities were categorized as small for gestational age (SGA) (<10th percentile) or large for gestational age (LGA) (>90th percentile) at death (stillbirth) or delivery (live birth) using population, ultrasound, and individualized norms. Gestational age at death was determined using an algorithm that considered the time-of-death interval, postmortem examination, and reliability of the gestational age estimate. Data were weighted to account for the sampling design and differential participation rates in various subgroups. Among 527 singleton stillbirths and 1,821 singleton live births studied, stillbirth was associated with SGA based on population, ultrasound, and individualized norms (odds ratio [OR] [95% CI]: 3.0 [2.2 to 4.0]; 4.7 [3.7 to 5.9]; 4.6 [3.6 to 5.9], respectively). LGA was also associated with increased risk of stillbirth using ultrasound and individualized norms (OR [95% CI]: 3.5 [2.4 to 5.0]; 2.3 [1.7 to 3.1], respectively), but not population norms (OR [95% CI]: 0.6 [0.4 to 1.0]). The associations were stronger with more severe SGA and LGA (<5th and >95th percentile). Analyses adjusted for stillbirth risk factors, subset analyses excluding potential confounders, and analyses in preterm and term pregnancies showed similar patterns of association. In this study 70% of cases and 63% of controls agreed to participate. Analysis weights accounted for differences between consenting and non-consenting women. Some of the characteristics used for individualized fetal growth estimates were missing

  17. [The characteristics of population growth of the Dongxiang nationality and the necessity of carrying out family planning].

    PubMed

    Ma, Z

    1983-09-29

    For a long time, the Dongxiang nationality has lived in the area of Dongxiang, which is a part of Gu Hezhou in Gansu Province. Among the various minorities in China, the Dongxiang people has been noted for their small population. In recent years, however, their population growth rate has been very high. Statistics show their annual population growth rate was 13.5% in 1970 and 32.8% in 1980. This situation is caused mainly by the young age of the population (young persons under the age of 19 constitute 55.7% of the entire population). Because of the popularity of Islam among the people, the custom of early marriage and having children at an early age has long been a tradition. Rapid population growth has created numerous problems. Food production has been unable to keep up with the speed of the population growth, and economic development cannot satisfy the needs of the rapid growing population. The Dongxiang people are physically healthy and strong, and marriages between close relatives is prohibited. Because of the backward condition in education and culture, efforts to promote the quality of the Dongxiang population have remained slow and ineffective. Starting in 1974, the local government in Dongxiang launched extensive birth control projects and positive results have been achieved. At the present time, about 62% of its population have taken birth control measures, and the natural population growth rate dropped to 15.34% in 1982.

  18. Effect of Microstructure on Population Growth Parameters of Escherichia coli in Gelatin-Dextran Systems

    PubMed Central

    Boons, Kathleen; Noriega, Estefanía; Van den Broeck, Rob; David, Charlotte C.; Hofkens, Johan

    2014-01-01

    Current literature acknowledges the effect of food structure on bacterial dynamics. Most studies introduce this “structure” factor using a single gelling agent, resulting in a homogeneous environment, whereas in practice most food products are heterogeneous. Therefore, this study focuses on heterogeneous protein-polysaccharide mixtures, based on gelatin and dextran. These mixtures show phase separation, leading to a range of heterogeneous microstructures by adjusting relative concentrations of both gelling agents. Based on confocal microscope observations, the growth of Escherichia coli in gelatin-dextran systems was observed to occur in the dextran phase. To find a relation between microscopic and population behavior, growth experiments were performed in binary and singular gelatin-dextran systems and culture broth at 23.5°C, with or without adding 2.9% (wt/vol) NaCl. The Baranyi and Roberts growth model was fitted to the experimental data and parameter estimates were statistically compared. For salted binary mixtures, a decrease in the population maximum cell density was observed with increasing gelatin concentration. In this series, for one type of microstructure, i.e., a gelatin matrix phase with a disperse dextran phase, the maximum cell density decreased with decreasing percentage of dextran phase. However, this relation no longer held when other types of microstructure were observed. Compared to singular systems, adding a second gelling agent in the presence of NaCl had an effect on population lag phases and maximum cell densities. For unsalted media, the growth parameters of singular and binary mixtures were comparable. Introducing this information into mathematical models leads to more reliable growth predictions and enhanced food safety. PMID:24951795

  19. The relationship between population growth and real assessed market values: note.

    PubMed

    Gamble, H B; Downing, R H

    1985-07-01

    Various indices are commonly used to measure growth or decline in communities and regions, but this article suggests another measure which is fairly easy to obtain--the change over time in real assessed market values. Computer storage and analysis of real estate assessment and sales data make it possible to determine accurate true assessment ratios which can be used to calculate reasonable estimates of market values. This article shows the relationship between population growth from 1970 to 1980 and the changes in real assessed market values of various property classes for over 400 Pennsylvania townships. This can provide insight into the kind and nature of community change. The most noteworthy aspect of these data, not apparent in conventional growth measures, is the magnitude of increases of residential property values in all growth categories, but particularly in the high growth townships. This kind of data could be calculated by countries or by regions; this might be more informative and useful to planners and researchers in such form. Comparing local data to regional, community, or state landmark data can help identify strengths and weaknesses or the particular nature of a community's growth.

  20. Population Growth and Sprawl on the Pine Ridge Indian Reservation, South Dakota

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Campbell, R. L.

    2006-05-01

    The most important impact on global land cover is human use and development. With the recent population growth occurring on the reservations in South Dakota, especially Pine Ridge Indian Reservation, the towns and agricultural areas of the reservation are undergoing a change. Although urban sprawl certainly is not a consideration on the reservations, the population explosion currently underway has seen a subsequent increase in rural sprawl. In this case, rural sprawl is defined as exponential population growth and geographic expansion of remote reservation communities. Using satellite imagery and software to render these images is a cost effective way to investigate this growth. Also, using remotely sensed data and a GIS (geographic information system) package can address different issues that concern people and communities in and around the Pine Ridge area. The objective of my project is to observe land use change on the Pine Ridge Indian reservation using Geographic Information Systems such as; ARCGis 9, ENVI, and Multispec, along with Landsat 4, 5, and 7 imagery over the past 20 years.

  1. Dynamics and forecasting of population growth and urban expansion in Srinagar City - A Geospatial Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Farooq, M.; Muslim, M.

    2014-11-01

    The urban areas of developing countries are densely populated and need the use of sophisticated monitoring systems, such as remote sensing and geographical information systems (GIS). The urban sprawl of a city is best understood by studying the dynamics of LULC change which can be easily generated by using sequential satellite images, required for the prediction of urban growth. Multivariate statistical techniques and regression models have been used to establish the relationship between the urban growth and its causative factors and for forecast of the population growth and urban expansion. In Srinagar city, one of the fastest growing metropolitan cities situated in Jammu and Kashmir State of India, sprawl is taking its toll on the natural resources at an alarming pace. The present study was carried over a period of 40 years (1971-2011), to understand the dynamics of spatial and temporal variability of urban sprawl. The results reveal that built-up area has increased by 585.08 % while as the population has increased by 214.75 %. The forecast showed an increase of 246.84 km2 in built-up area which exceeds the overall carrying capacity of the city. The most common conversions were also evaluated.

  2. Child abuse registration, fetal growth, and preterm birth: a population based study

    PubMed Central

    Spencer, Nick; Wallace, Ann; Sundrum, Ratna; Bacchus, Claire; Logan, Stuart

    2006-01-01

    Objectives To study the relation of intra‐uterine growth and gestational age with child protection registration in a 20 year whole population birth cohort. Setting West Sussex area of England. Study design Retrospective whole population birth cohort. Outcomes Child protection registration; individual categories of registration—sexual abuse, physical abuse, emotional abuse, and neglect. Population and participants 119 771 infants born in West Sussex between January 1983 and December 2001 with complete data including birth weight, gestational age, maternal age, and postcode. Results In all categories of registration a linear trend was noted such that the lower the birth weight z score the higher the likelihood of child protection registration. Similar trends were noted for gestational age. All these trends were robust to adjustment for maternal age and socioeconomic status. Conclusions The results of this study suggest that lower levels of fetal growth and shorter gestational duration are associated with increased likelihood of child protection registration in all categories including sexual abuse independent of maternal age or socioeconomic status. This study does not permit comment on whether poor fetal growth or preterm birth predispose to child abuse and neglect or the association arises because they share a common pathway. PMID:16537351

  3. Life-history correlates of maximum population growth rates in marine fishes.

    PubMed

    Denney, Nicola H; Jennings, Simon; Reynolds, John D

    2002-11-01

    Theory predicts that populations of animals with late maturity, low fecundity, large body size and low body growth rates will have low potential rates of population increase at low abundance. If this is true, then these traits may be used to predict the intrinsic rate of increase for species or populations, as well as extinction risks. We used life-history and population data for 63 stocks of commercially exploited fish species from the northeast Atlantic to test relationships between life-history parameters and the rate of population increase at low abundance. We used cross-taxonomic analyses among stocks and among species, and analyses that accounted for phylogenetic relationships. These analyses confirmed that large-bodied, slow-growing stocks and species had significantly lower rates of recruitment and adult production per spawning adult at low abundance. Furthermore, high ages at maturity were significantly correlated with low maximum recruit production. Contrary to expectation, fecundity was significantly negatively related to recruit production, due to its positive relationship with maximum body size. Our results support theoretical predictions, and suggest that a simply measured life-history parameter can provide a useful tool for predicting rates of recovery from low population abundance.

  4. Studies on comparative population growth of some species of the rotifer Lecane (Rotifera).

    PubMed

    Serrania-Soto, C R; Sarma, S S S; Nandini, S

    2011-07-01

    We compared the population growth patterns of 5 species of the rotifer genus Lecane [(L. quadridentata (Ehrenberg, 1830), L. comuta (Muller, 1786), L. papuana (Murray, 1913), L. unguitata (Fadeev, 1925) and L. pyriformis (Daday, 1905)] ranging in adult average body size from 30 to 140 microm. All species were cultured under laboratory conditions for 25-30 days using the green alga Scenedesmus acutus as the exclusive diet, at a density of 1.0 x 10(6) cells ml(-1) at 24 degrees C. Regardless of the species, lecanids reached their peak population densities after 4 weeks. Peak population densities ranged from 15 to 320 ind. ml(-1), depending on body size. There was an inverse curvilinear relation between body lengths and peak population abundances (densities) of the Lecane species. Egg ratios (eggs per female) for the tested species were < 0.6 during the exponential phase but declined to 0.1 (or lower) as the population density increased. The rates of population increase for the lecanids were in general lower(0.10 to 0.21 day (-1)) than other well-studied rotifer species including members of Brachionidae.

  5. Estimation of contributions to population growth: a reverse-time capture-recapture approach

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.; Lebreton, J.D.; Pradel, R.

    2000-01-01

    We consider methods for estimating the relative contributions of different demographic components, and their associated vital rates, to population growth. We identify components of the population at time i (including a component for animals not in the population at i). For each such component we ask the following question: 'What is the probability that an individual randomly selected from the population at time i + 1 was a member of this component at i?' The estimation methods for these probabilities ((i) are based on capture-recapture studies of marked animal populations and use reverse-time modeling. We consider several different sampling situations and present example analyses for meadow voles, Microtus pennsylvanicus. The relationship between these (i parameters and elasticities (and other parameters based on projection matrix asymptotics) is noted and discussed. We conclude by suggesting that model-based asymptotics be viewed as demographic theory and that direct estimation approaches be used to test this theory with data from sampled populations with marked animals.

  6. Vulnerability of Korean water resources to climate change and population growth.

    PubMed

    Chang, H; Franczyk, J; Im, E-S; Kwon, W-T; Bae, D-H; Jung, I-W

    2007-01-01

    Freshwater availability is affected by changes in climate and growth. We assessed the freshwater vulnerability for five major Korean river basins for 2015 and 2030. We used a regional climate model based on the IPCC SRES A2 scenario, US Geological Survey's Precipitation Rainfall Simulation Model, and population and industrial growth scenarios for impact assessment. The model simulation results suggest increasing spatial and temporal variations of water stress for the basins that are already developed. While freshwater is more vulnerable to growth scenarios than the climate change scenario, climate change alone could decrease mean annual runoff by 10% in four major river basins by 2030. As the first national assessment of climate change, we suggest possible adaptive water resource management and policy strategies for reducing climate related risks in Korea.

  7. Verification of SNPs Associated with Growth Traits in Two Populations of Farmed Atlantic Salmon

    PubMed Central

    Tsai, Hsin Y.; Hamilton, Alastair; Guy, Derrick R.; Tinch, Alan E.; Bishop, Steve C.; Houston, Ross D.

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the relationship between genetic variants and traits of economic importance in aquaculture species is pertinent to selective breeding programmes. High-throughput sequencing technologies have enabled the discovery of large numbers of SNPs in Atlantic salmon, and high density SNP arrays now exist. A previous genome-wide association study (GWAS) using a high density SNP array (132K SNPs) has revealed the polygenic nature of early growth traits in salmon, but has also identified candidate SNPs showing suggestive associations with these traits. The aim of this study was to test the association of the candidate growth-associated SNPs in a separate population of farmed Atlantic salmon to verify their effects. Identifying SNP-trait associations in two populations provides evidence that the associations are true and robust. Using a large cohort (N = 1152), we successfully genotyped eight candidate SNPs from the previous GWAS, two of which were significantly associated with several growth and fillet traits measured at harvest. The genes proximal to these SNPs were identified by alignment to the salmon reference genome and are discussed in the context of their potential role in underpinning genetic variation in salmon growth. PMID:26703584

  8. Spatial analysis of cattle and shoat population in Ethiopia: growth trend, distribution and market access.

    PubMed

    Leta, Samson; Mesele, Frehiwot

    2014-01-01

    The livestock subsector has an enormous contribution to Ethiopia's national economy and livelihoods of many Ethiopians. The subsector contributes about 16.5% of the national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and 35.6% of the agricultural GDP. It also contributes 15% of export earnings and 30% of agricultural employment. The livestock subsector currently support and sustain livelihoods for 80% of all rural population. The GDP of livestock related activities valued at 59 billion birr. Ethiopian livestock population trends, distribution and marketing vary considerably across space and time due to a variety of reasons. This study was aimed to assess cattle and shoat population growth trend, distribution and their access to market. Regression analysis was used to assess the cattle and shoat population growth trend and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) techniques were used to determine the spatial distribution of cattle and shoats, and their relative access to market. The data sets used are agricultural census (2001/02) and annual CSA agricultural sample survey (1995/96 to 2012/13). In the past eighteen years, the livestock population namely cattle, sheep and goat grew from 54.5 million to over 103.5 million with average annual increment of 3.4 million. The current average national cattle, sheep and goat population per km(2) are estimated to be 71, 33 and 29 respectively (excluding Addis Ababa, Afar and Somali regions). From the total livestock population the country owns about 46% cattle, 43% sheep and 40% goats are reared within 10 km radius from major livestock market centres and all-weather roads. On the other hand, three fourth of the country's land mass which comprises 15% of the cattle, 20% of the sheep and 21% of goat population is not accessible to market (greater than 30 km from major livestock market centres). It is found that the central highland regions account for the largest share of livestock population and also more accessible to market. Defining the

  9. The impact of population growth on environment: the debate heats up.

    PubMed

    Shaw, R P

    1992-02-01

    A proposed framework, which was introduced at the 1989 meetings of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, included political constraints as well as population growth as a proximate cause with potentially important impacts on the environment in Paul and Ann Ehrlich's well-known PAT equation. PAT limitations are identified as the 1.2 billion people caught in the debt-poverty trap, less developed countries' balance of payments deficits, and "distortionary factors" that undermined economic incentives and contributed to mismanagement of resources. Such factors could be keeping farm prices low and have an impact on deterring use of environmentally sound traditional agricultural practices. Mismanagement of public lands occurs when large commercial enterprises or large scale mechanization displace population onto marginal or less productive lands. Intergroup warfare is a new form impacting on the environment. In Burma loggers are authorized to clear cut large tracts of teak forests in order to ferret out Karen guerrillas. Over 15 million refugees were thus displaced and forced to live in encampments that require trees for shelter, firewood for survival, and overgrazing of livestock. Social and economic environments are also undermined by "dependency" factors such as trade protectionism, brain drain, and limited foreign aid. The Group of 77 Non-Aligned Developing Countries proposed that discussions of the links between population and the environment be omitted from the agenda of the 1994 UN Conference on Population and Development. Basic clarifications are needed to distinguish ultimate versus proximate factors and current versus future concerns. The debate ignores distribution patterns, migration, or changing age structures. The debate blames unjustifiably rapid population growth as the ultimate cause of global environmental degradation and links population growth to a host of other social problems such as famine and refugees, while ignoring civil unrest

  10. Overexpression of poplar cellulase accelerates growth and disturbs the closing movements of leaves in sengon.

    PubMed

    Hartati, Sri; Sudarmonowati, Enny; Park, Yong Woo; Kaku, Tomomi; Kaida, Rumi; Baba, Kei'ichi; Hayashi, Takahisa

    2008-06-01

    In this study, poplar (Populus alba) cellulase (PaPopCel1) was overexpressed in a tropical Leguminosae tree, sengon (Paraserianthes falcataria), by the Agrobacterium tumefaciens method. PaPopCel1 overexpression increased the length and width of stems with larger leaves, which showed a moderately higher density of green color than leaves of the wild type. The pairs of leaves on the transgenic plants closed more slowly during sunset than those on the wild-type plants. When main veins from each genotype were excised and placed on a paper towel, however, the leaves of the transgenic plants closed more rapidly than those of the wild-type plant. Based on carbohydrate analyses of cell walls, the leaves of the transgenic plants contained less wall-bound xyloglucan than those of the wild-type plants. In situ xyloglucan endotransglucosylase activity showed that the incorporation of whole xyloglucan, potentially for wall tightening, occurred in the parenchyma cells (motor cells) of the petiolule pulvinus attached to the main vein, although the transgenic plant incorporated less whole xyloglucan than the wild-type plant. These observations support the hypothesis that the paracrystalline sites of cellulose microfibrils are attacked by poplar cellulase, which loosens xyloglucan intercalation, resulting in an irreversible wall modification. This process could be the reason why the overexpression of poplar cellulase both promotes plant growth and disturbs the biological clock of the plant by altering the closing movements of the leaves of the plant. PMID:18417637

  11. Hepatocyte Growth Factor Prevents Acute Renal Failure of Accelerates Renal Regeneration in mice

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kawaida, Kouichi; Matsumoto, Kunio; Shimazu, Hisaaki; Nakamura, Toshikazu

    1994-05-01

    Although acute renal failure is encountered with administration of nephrotoxic drugs, ischemia, or unilateral nephrectomy, there has been no effective drug which can be used in case of acute renal failure. Hepatocyte growth factor (HGF) is a potent hepatotropic factor for liver regeneration and is known to have mitogenic, motogenic, and morphogenic activities for various epithelial cells, including renal tubular cells. Intravenous injection of recombinant human HGF into mice remarkably suppressed increases in blood urea nitrogen and serum creatinine caused by administration of cisplatin, a widely used antitumor drug, or HgCl_2, thereby indicating that HGF strongly prevented the onset of acute renal dysfunction. Moreover, exogenous HGF stimulated DNA synthesis of renal tubular cells after renal injuries caused by HgCl_2 administration and unilateral nephrectomy and induced reconstruction of the normal renal tissue structure in vivo. Taken together with our previous finding that expression of HGF was rapidly induced after renal injuries, these results allow us to conclude that HGF may be the long-sought renotropic factor for renal regeneration and may prove to be effective treatment for patients with renal dysfunction, especially that caused by cisplatin.

  12. Determining Individual Variation in Growth and Its Implication for Life-History and Population Processes Using the Empirical Bayes Method

    PubMed Central

    Vincenzi, Simone; Mangel, Marc; Crivelli, Alain J.; Munch, Stephan; Skaug, Hans J.

    2014-01-01

    The differences in demographic and life-history processes between organisms living in the same population have important consequences for ecological and evolutionary dynamics. Modern statistical and computational methods allow the investigation of individual and shared (among homogeneous groups) determinants of the observed variation in growth. We use an Empirical Bayes approach to estimate individual and shared variation in somatic growth using a von Bertalanffy growth model with random effects. To illustrate the power and generality of the method, we consider two populations of marble trout Salmo marmoratus living in Slovenian streams, where individually tagged fish have been sampled for more than 15 years. We use year-of-birth cohort, population density during the first year of life, and individual random effects as potential predictors of the von Bertalanffy growth function's parameters k (rate of growth) and (asymptotic size). Our results showed that size ranks were largely maintained throughout marble trout lifetime in both populations. According to the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), the best models showed different growth patterns for year-of-birth cohorts as well as the existence of substantial individual variation in growth trajectories after accounting for the cohort effect. For both populations, models including density during the first year of life showed that growth tended to decrease with increasing population density early in life. Model validation showed that predictions of individual growth trajectories using the random-effects model were more accurate than predictions based on mean size-at-age of fish. PMID:25211603

  13. Determining individual variation in growth and its implication for life-history and population processes using the empirical Bayes method.

    PubMed

    Vincenzi, Simone; Mangel, Marc; Crivelli, Alain J; Munch, Stephan; Skaug, Hans J

    2014-09-01

    The differences in demographic and life-history processes between organisms living in the same population have important consequences for ecological and evolutionary dynamics. Modern statistical and computational methods allow the investigation of individual and shared (among homogeneous groups) determinants of the observed variation in growth. We use an Empirical Bayes approach to estimate individual and shared variation in somatic growth using a von Bertalanffy growth model with random effects. To illustrate the power and generality of the method, we consider two populations of marble trout Salmo marmoratus living in Slovenian streams, where individually tagged fish have been sampled for more than 15 years. We use year-of-birth cohort, population density during the first year of life, and individual random effects as potential predictors of the von Bertalanffy growth function's parameters k (rate of growth) and L∞ (asymptotic size). Our results showed that size ranks were largely maintained throughout marble trout lifetime in both populations. According to the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), the best models showed different growth patterns for year-of-birth cohorts as well as the existence of substantial individual variation in growth trajectories after accounting for the cohort effect. For both populations, models including density during the first year of life showed that growth tended to decrease with increasing population density early in life. Model validation showed that predictions of individual growth trajectories using the random-effects model were more accurate than predictions based on mean size-at-age of fish.

  14. Accelerated partial breast irradiation in an Asian population: dosimetric findings and preliminary results of a multicatheter interstitial program

    PubMed Central

    Koh, Yaling Vicky; Tan, Poh Wee; Buhari, Shaik Ahmad; Iau, Philip; Chan, Ching Wan; Shen, Liang; Tan, Sing Huang; Tang, Johann I-Hsiung

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Accelerated partial breast irradiation (APBI) using the multicatheter method has excellent cosmesis and low rates of long-term toxicity. However, there are few studies looking at the feasibility of this procedure and the outcomes in an Asian population. This study aims to look at outcomes at our hospital. Methods We identified 121 patients treated with APBI at our center between 2008 and 2014. The median follow-up for our patient group was 30 months (range 3.7–66.5). The prescribed dose per fraction was 3.4 Gy in 10 fractions. In this study population, 71% of the patients were Chinese while 15% (n=19) were of other Asian ethnicity. Results In this study, the median breast volume was 850 cc (range 216–2,108) with 59.5% (n=72) patients with a breast volume of <1,000 cc. The average planning target volume was 134 cc (range 28–324). The number of catheters used ranged from 8 to 25 with an average of 18 catheters used per patient. We achieved an average dose homogeneity index of 0.76 in our patients. The average D90(%) was 105% and the average D90(Gy) was 3.6 Gy per fraction. The median volume receiving 100% of the prescribed dose (V100) was 161.7 cc (range 33.9–330.1), 150% of the prescribed dose (V150) and 200% of the prescribed dose (V200) was 39.4 cc (range 14.6–69.6) and 14.72 cc (range 6.48–22.25), respectively. Our dosimetric outcomes were excellent even in patients with breast volume under 1,000 cc. There were no cases of grade 3 skin toxicity or acute pneumonitis. Two patients had a postoperative infection and two patients had fat necrosis postprocedure. Conclusion Multicatheter high dose rate APBI is a safe and feasible procedure that can be carried out with minimal toxicity in Asian patients with breast volumes under 1,000 cc.

  15. Accelerated partial breast irradiation in an Asian population: dosimetric findings and preliminary results of a multicatheter interstitial program

    PubMed Central

    Koh, Yaling Vicky; Tan, Poh Wee; Buhari, Shaik Ahmad; Iau, Philip; Chan, Ching Wan; Shen, Liang; Tan, Sing Huang; Tang, Johann I-Hsiung

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Accelerated partial breast irradiation (APBI) using the multicatheter method has excellent cosmesis and low rates of long-term toxicity. However, there are few studies looking at the feasibility of this procedure and the outcomes in an Asian population. This study aims to look at outcomes at our hospital. Methods We identified 121 patients treated with APBI at our center between 2008 and 2014. The median follow-up for our patient group was 30 months (range 3.7–66.5). The prescribed dose per fraction was 3.4 Gy in 10 fractions. In this study population, 71% of the patients were Chinese while 15% (n=19) were of other Asian ethnicity. Results In this study, the median breast volume was 850 cc (range 216–2,108) with 59.5% (n=72) patients with a breast volume of <1,000 cc. The average planning target volume was 134 cc (range 28–324). The number of catheters used ranged from 8 to 25 with an average of 18 catheters used per patient. We achieved an average dose homogeneity index of 0.76 in our patients. The average D90(%) was 105% and the average D90(Gy) was 3.6 Gy per fraction. The median volume receiving 100% of the prescribed dose (V100) was 161.7 cc (range 33.9–330.1), 150% of the prescribed dose (V150) and 200% of the prescribed dose (V200) was 39.4 cc (range 14.6–69.6) and 14.72 cc (range 6.48–22.25), respectively. Our dosimetric outcomes were excellent even in patients with breast volume under 1,000 cc. There were no cases of grade 3 skin toxicity or acute pneumonitis. Two patients had a postoperative infection and two patients had fat necrosis postprocedure. Conclusion Multicatheter high dose rate APBI is a safe and feasible procedure that can be carried out with minimal toxicity in Asian patients with breast volumes under 1,000 cc. PMID:27660474

  16. APPLICATION OF ELASTICITY ANALYSES AND PERTURBATION SIMULATIONS IN DETERMINING STRESSOR IMPACTS ON POPULATION GROWTH RATE AND EXTINCTION RISK

    EPA Science Inventory

    Population structure and life history strategies are determinants of how populations respond to stressor-induced impairments in individual-level responses, but a consistent and holistic analysis has not been reported. Effects on population growth rate were modeled using five theo...

  17. Anatomy of a bottleneck: diagnosing factors limiting population growth in the Puerto Rican parrot

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Beissenger, S.R.; Wunderle, J.M.; Meyers, J.M.; Saether, B.-E.; Engen, S.

    2008-01-01

    The relative importance of genetic, demographic, environmental, and catastrophic processes that maintain population bottlenecks has received little consideration. We evaluate the role of these factors in maintaining the Puerto Rican Parrot (Amazona vittata) in a prolonged bottleneck from 1973 through 2000 despite intensive conservation efforts. We first conduct a risk analysis, then examine evidence for the importance of specific processes maintaining the bottleneck using the multiple competing hypotheses approach, and finally integrate these results through a sensitivity analysis of a demographic model using life-stage simulation analysis (LSA) to determine the relative importance of genetic, demographic, environmental, and catastrophic processes on population growth. Annual population growth has been slow and variable (1.0 6 5.2 parrots per year, or an average k?1.05 6 0.19) from 16 parrots (1973) to a high of 40-42 birds (1997-1998). A risk analysis based on population prediction intervals (PPI) indicates great risk and large uncertainty, with a range of 22?83 birds in the 90% PPI only five years into the future. Four primary factors (reduced hatching success due to inbreeding, failure of adults to nest, nest failure due to nongenetic causes, and reduced survival of adults and juveniles) were responsible for maintaining the bottleneck. Egghatchability rates were low (70.6% per egg and 76.8% per pair), and hatchability increased after mate changes, suggesting inbreeding effects. Only an average of 34% of the population nested annually, which was well below the percentage of adults that should have reached an age of first breeding (41-56%). This chronic failure to nest appears to have been caused primarily by environmental and/or behavioral factors, and not by nest-site scarcity or a skewed sex ratio. Nest failure rates from nongenetic causes (i.e., predation, parasitism, and wet cavities) were low (29%) due to active management (protecting nests and fostering

  18. Chile confronts its environmental health future after 25 years of accelerated growth

    PubMed Central

    Pino, Paulina; Iglesias, Verónica; Garreaud, René; Cortés, Sandra; Canals, Mauricio; Folch, Walter; Burgos, Soledad; Levy, Karen; Naeher, Luke P.; Steenland, Kyle

    2015-01-01

    Background Chile has recently been reclassified by the World Bank from an upper middle income country to a higher income country. There has been great progress in the last 20–30 years in relation to air and water pollution in Chile. Yet after 25 years of unrestrained growth there remain clear challenges posed by air and water, as well as climate change. Methods: In late 2013 a three-day workshop on environmental health was held in Santiago, bringing together researchers and government policy makers. As a follow-up to that workshop, here we review the progress made in environmental health in the past 20–30 years, and discuss the challenges of the future. We focus on air and water pollution, and climate change, which we believe are among the most important areas of environmental health in Chile. Results Air pollution in some cities remains among the highest in the continent. Potable water is generally available, but weak state supervision has led to serious outbreaks of infectious disease and ongoing issues with arsenic exposure in some regions. Climate change modeling in Chile is quite sophisticated, and a number of the impacts of climate change can be reasonably predicted in terms of which areas of the country are most likely to be affected by increased temperature and decreased availability of water, as well as expansion of vector territory. Some health effects, including change vector-borne diseases and excess heat mortality, can be predicted. However, there has yet to be an integration of such research with government planning. Conclusion While great progress has been made, currently there are a number of problems. We suspect that the Chilean experience in environmental health may be of some use for other Latin American countries with rapid economic development. PMID:26615070

  19. Accelerated growth in outgoing links in evolving networks: deterministic versus stochastic picture.

    PubMed

    Sen, Parongama

    2004-04-01

    In several real-world networks such as the Internet, World Wide Web, etc., the number of links grow in time in a nonlinear fashion. We consider growing networks in which the number of outgoing links is a nonlinear function of time but new links between older nodes are forbidden. The attachments are made using a preferential attachment scheme. In the deterministic picture, the number of outgoing links m (t) at any time t is taken as N (t)(theta) where N (t) is the number of nodes present at that time. The continuum theory predicts a power-law decay of the degree distribution: P (k) proportional to k-(1-2/ (1-theta ) ), while the degree of the node introduced at time t(i) is given by k(t(i),t)=t(theta)(i) [t/t(i) ]((1+theta)/2) when the network is evolved till time t. Numerical results show a growth in the degree distribution for small k values at any nonzero theta. In the stochastic picture, m (t) is a random variable. As long as is independent of time, the network shows a behavior similar to the Barabási-Albert (BA) model. Different results are obtained when is time dependent, e.g., when m (t) follows a distribution P (m) proportional to m(-lambda). The behavior of P (k) changes significantly as lambda is varied: for lambda>3, the network has a scale-free distribution belonging to the BA class as predicted by the mean field theory; for smaller values of lambda it shows different behavior. Characteristic features of the clustering coefficients in both models have also been discussed.

  20. Accelerated growth in outgoing links in evolving networks:Deterministic versus stochastic picture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sen, Parongama

    2004-04-01

    In several real-world networks such as the Internet, World Wide Web, etc., the number of links grow in time in a nonlinear fashion. We consider growing networks in which the number of outgoing links is a nonlinear function of time but new links between older nodes are forbidden. The attachments are made using a preferential attachment scheme. In the deterministic picture, the number of outgoing links m (t) at any time t is taken as N (t)θ where N (t) is the number of nodes present at that time. The continuum theory predicts a power-law decay of the degree distribution: P (k) ∝ k-1-2/ ( 1-θ ) , while the degree of the node introduced at time ti is given by k(ti,t)=tθi [t/ ti ](1+θ)/2 when the network is evolved till time t . Numerical results show a growth in the degree distribution for small k values at any nonzero θ . In the stochastic picture, m (t) is a random variable. As long as < m (t) > is independent of time, the network shows a behavior similar to the Barabási-Albert (BA) model. Different results are obtained when < m (t) > is time dependent, e.g., when m (t) follows a distribution P (m) ∝ m-λ . The behavior of P (k) changes significantly as λ is varied: for λ>3 , the network has a scale-free distribution belonging to the BA class as predicted by the mean field theory; for smaller values of λ it shows different behavior. Characteristic features of the clustering coefficients in both models have also been discussed.

  1. Grid cells analysis of urban growth using remote sensing and population census data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bagan, H.; Yamagata, Y.

    2012-12-01

    Urban growth and sprawl have drastically altered the ecosystems and ecosystem services. Urban areas are an increasingly important component of the global environment, yet they remain one of the most challenging areas for conducting research. Remote sensing based information is one of the most important resources to support urban planning and administration in megacities. It is possible to provide the up-to-date information regarding the extent, growth, and physical characteristics of urban land. Remote sensing provides spatially consistent image information that covers broad areas with both high spatial resolution and high temporal frequency. Therefore, remote sensing is an important tool for providing information on urban land-cover characteristics and their changes over time at various spatial and temporal scales. Urban land-use and land-cover changes are linked to socio-economic activities. Urbanization includes both the physical growth of a city and the movement of people to urban areas. As a consequence, it is essential to combine remote sensing derived parameters with socio-economic parameter to analyze the spatial-temporal changes and interaction of both factors. The aim of the research was to use1-km2 grid cells to investigate the spatial and temporal dynamics of urban growth in the world mega cities. The research was conducted in the 50 global cities using Landsat ETM/TM remote sensing imagery from 1985 - 2011, and time series population census data (1-km2 resolution gridded population census data of Japan and 2.5 arc-minute resolutions Gridded Population of the World). First, maximum likelihood classification (MLC) method were used to produce land cover maps by using Landsat images. Then intersect the land cover maps with 1-km2 grid cell maps to represents the proportion of each land cover category within each 1-km2 grid cell. Finally, we combined the proportional land cover maps with gridded population census data on 1-km2 resolution grid cells to

  2. Effects of Sample Size on Estimates of Population Growth Rates Calculated with Matrix Models

    PubMed Central

    Fiske, Ian J.; Bruna, Emilio M.; Bolker, Benjamin M.

    2008-01-01

    Background Matrix models are widely used to study the dynamics and demography of populations. An important but overlooked issue is how the number of individuals sampled influences estimates of the population growth rate (λ) calculated with matrix models. Even unbiased estimates of vital rates do not ensure unbiased estimates of λ–Jensen's Inequality implies that even when the estimates of the vital rates are accurate, small sample sizes lead to biased estimates of λ due to increased sampling variance. We investigated if sampling variability and the distribution of sampling effort among size classes lead to biases in estimates of λ. Methodology/Principal Findings Using data from a long-term field study of plant demography, we simulated the effects of sampling variance by drawing vital rates and calculating λ for increasingly larger populations drawn from a total population of 3842 plants. We then compared these estimates of λ with those based on the entire population and calculated the resulting bias. Finally, we conducted a review of the literature to determine the sample sizes typically used when parameterizing matrix models used to study plant demography. Conclusions/Significance We found significant bias at small sample sizes when survival was low (survival = 0.5), and that sampling with a more-realistic inverse J-shaped population structure exacerbated this bias. However our simulations also demonstrate that these biases rapidly become negligible with increasing sample sizes or as survival increases. For many of the sample sizes used in demographic studies, matrix models are probably robust to the biases resulting from sampling variance of vital rates. However, this conclusion may depend on the structure of populations or the distribution of sampling effort in ways that are unexplored. We suggest more intensive sampling of populations when individual survival is low and greater sampling of stages with high elasticities. PMID:18769483

  3. Recombinant growth factor mixtures induce cell cycle progression and the upregulation of type I collagen in human skin fibroblasts, resulting in the acceleration of wound healing processes.

    PubMed

    Lee, Do Hyun; Choi, Kyung-Ha; Cho, Jae-We; Kim, So Young; Kwon, Tae Rin; Choi, Sun Young; Choi, Yoo Mi; Lee, Jay; Yoon, Ho Sang; Kim, Beom Joon

    2014-05-01

    Application of growth factor mixtures has been used for wound healing and anti-wrinkles agents. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of recombinant growth factor mixtures (RGFM) on the expression of cell cycle regulatory proteins, type I collagen, and wound healing processes of acute animal wound models. The results showed that RGFM induced increased rates of cell proliferation and cell migration of human skin fibroblasts (HSF). In addition, expression of cyclin D1, cyclin E, cyclin-dependent kinase (Cdk)4, and Cdk2 proteins was markedly increased with a growth factor mixtures treatment in fibroblasts. Expression of type I collagen was also increased in growth factor mixtures-treated HSF. Moreover, growth factor mixtures-induced the upregulation of type I collagen was associated with the activation of Smad2/3. In the animal model, RGFM-treated mice showed accelerated wound closure, with the closure rate increasing as early as on day 7, as well as re-epithelization and reduced inflammatory cell infiltration than phosphate-buffered saline (PBS)-treated mice. In conclusion, the results indicated that RGFM has the potential to accelerate wound healing through the upregulation of type I collagen, which is partly mediated by activation of Smad2/3-dependent signaling pathway as well as cell cycle progression in HSF. The topical application of growth factor mixtures to acute and chronic skin wound may accelerate the epithelization process through these molecular mechanisms.

  4. The future fertility of mankind: effects on world population growth and migration.

    PubMed

    Short, R V

    2001-01-01

    The world's population, currently just over 6 billion, is projected to increase to 9-10 billion by the year 2050. Most of this growth will occur in the developing countries of Asia, where there is an enormous unmet demand for contraception, while an increasing number of developed countries will have declining populations. The human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) pandemic will target developing countries, with India destined to become its new epicenter. By 2050, there may be 1 billion HIV-infected people in the world. The significant protective effect of male circumcision may spare Islamic countries, such as Pakistan, Bangladesh, Iran and Indonesia, from the worst effects of the pandemic. Australia will be increasingly threatened by the high rates of population growth of her Asian neighbours. This, coupled with political instability and sea-level rises as a consequence of global warming, will turn the present trickle of refugees from a variety of Asian countries seeking safe haven on our sparsely populated northern coastline into a veritable flood. There will come a time when we have neither the manpower, nor the means, nor even the moral right to intercept, detain or repatriate the thousands who will come in peace, in search of a better life. However, if Australia is to stabilize its future population at around 23 million, which seems highly desirable on ecological grounds, then the net immigration rate must be limited to approximately 50000 people per year. Because the final point of departure for all these refugees is Indonesia, it is essential that Australia maintains good relations with Indonesia, so that together we can attempt to manage the refugee problem. However, Indonesia's own population is destined to increase by 100 million in the next 50 years, which will only exacerbate the situation. Australia would be well advised to make a major increase in its paltry financial assistance to Indonesia's excellent family planning programmes, which are currently

  5. The future fertility of mankind: effects on world population growth and migration.

    PubMed

    Short, R V

    2001-01-01

    The world's population, currently just over 6 billion, is projected to increase to 9-10 billion by the year 2050. Most of this growth will occur in the developing countries of Asia, where there is an enormous unmet demand for contraception, while an increasing number of developed countries will have declining populations. The human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) pandemic will target developing countries, with India destined to become its new epicenter. By 2050, there may be 1 billion HIV-infected people in the world. The significant protective effect of male circumcision may spare Islamic countries, such as Pakistan, Bangladesh, Iran and Indonesia, from the worst effects of the pandemic. Australia will be increasingly threatened by the high rates of population growth of her Asian neighbours. This, coupled with political instability and sea-level rises as a consequence of global warming, will turn the present trickle of refugees from a variety of Asian countries seeking safe haven on our sparsely populated northern coastline into a veritable flood. There will come a time when we have neither the manpower, nor the means, nor even the moral right to intercept, detain or repatriate the thousands who will come in peace, in search of a better life. However, if Australia is to stabilize its future population at around 23 million, which seems highly desirable on ecological grounds, then the net immigration rate must be limited to approximately 50000 people per year. Because the final point of departure for all these refugees is Indonesia, it is essential that Australia maintains good relations with Indonesia, so that together we can attempt to manage the refugee problem. However, Indonesia's own population is destined to increase by 100 million in the next 50 years, which will only exacerbate the situation. Australia would be well advised to make a major increase in its paltry financial assistance to Indonesia's excellent family planning programmes, which are currently

  6. Integrating physiological and biomechanical drivers of population growth over environmental gradients on coral reefs.

    PubMed

    Madin, Joshua S; Hoogenboom, Mia O; Connolly, Sean R

    2012-03-15

    Coral reefs exhibit marked spatial and temporal variability, and coral reef organisms exhibit trade-offs in functional traits that influence demographic performance under different combinations of abiotic environmental conditions. In many systems, trait trade-offs are modelled using an energy and/or nutrient allocation framework. However, on coral reefs, differences in biomechanical vulnerability have major demographic implications, and indeed are believed to play an essential role in mediating species coexistence because highly competitive growth forms are vulnerable to physical dislodgment events that occur with high frequency (e.g. annual summer storms). Therefore, an integrated energy allocation and biomechanics framework is required to understand the effect of physical environmental gradients on species' demographic performance. However, on coral reefs, as in most ecosystems, the effects of environmental conditions on organisms are measured in different currencies (e.g. lipid accumulation, survival and number of gametes), and thus the relative contributions of these effects to overall capacity for population growth are not readily apparent. A comprehensive assessment of links between the environment and the organism, including those mediated by biomechanical processes, must convert environmental effects on individual-level performance (e.g. survival, growth and reproduction) into a common currency that is relevant to the capacity to contribute to population growth. We outline such an approach by considering the population-level performance of scleractinian reef corals over a hydrodynamic gradient, with a focus on the integrating the biomechanical determinants of size-dependent coral colony dislodgment as a function of flow, with the effects of flow on photosynthetic energy acquisition and respiration.

  7. Population size and growth in Pakistan based on early reports of 1972 census.

    PubMed

    Krotki, K J; Parveen, K

    1976-01-01

    The 1972 census of Pakistan showed a population of 64.9 million, surprisingly high considering family planning campaigns, 2 wars with India, only minor gains in migration from Bangladesh, and the fact that other nearby countries have shown slowed population growth. This paper discusses many variables which may relate to the reliability of this figure. Census data in Pakistan has been traditionally difficult to obtain. For this reason growth rates rather than gross numbers are used for this analysis because these seem to move in relationship to total population and are more easily obtained. Before the 1961 census it was hopefully assumed that the growth rate was 1.4% per year. Between 1951 and 1961 however it was 2.2% and may have been as high as 2.8% or 3.2%. The 1972 census gives age distributions for only 23 of 61 districts but by comparing data for these 23 districts certain trends can be distinguished. Data for age group 0-5 years is often underreported so the actual population increase is picked up in the 5-9 and 10-15 age groups. In both 1961 and 1972 the 5-9 age group is very large. Either there is overreporting in this age group or these children were actually born when demographers were claiming success for the family planning program. There is a drop for those aged 15 in 1961, a similar but not so pronounced drop in 1971, another drop for those aged 40, and another drop for those aged 50. The reason for this ''zig-zag'' phenomena is not clear. The male-female ratios at older ages are more in line with the rest of the world in the 1972 census. This may be because older women were less forgotten than in the 1961 census. Charts and graphs detail the statistics. Ways of improving census data in the future are discussed.

  8. Genetic analysis of leg problems and growth in a random mating broiler population.

    PubMed

    González-Cerón, F; Rekaya, R; Anthony, N B; Aggrey, S E

    2015-02-01

    Improvement in growth has been widely reported as the cause of increased incidence of leg problems in broiler chickens. We report herein the genetic relationship between growth and leg problems in a random mating broiler control population. The traits studied were valgus (VL), varus (VR), and tibial dyschondroplasia (TD), which were expressed on a binary scale of 0 (normal) and 1 (abnormal); growth rates from 0 to 4 wk (BWG 0-4) and from 0 to 6 wk of age (BWG 0-6); and residual feed intake from 5 to 6 wk of age (RFI 5-6). A threshold-linear mixed model was employed for the joint analysis of the categorical and linear traits. Incidences of VL, VR, and TD were 26, 4, and 2%, respectively. Heritability of leg problems ranged from 0.11 to 0.13. Phenotypic correlations alluded to an unfavorable relationship between growth and leg problems; however, the genetic relationship between growth and leg problems was extremely weak, ranging from 0.01 to 0.08. There is, therefore, a basis for genetic improvement in leg problems. However, improved management practices would also be important to reduce incidence of leg problems in broiler chickens.

  9. Field population abundance of leafhopper (Homoptera: Cicadelidae) and planthopper (Homoptera: Delphacidae) as affected by rice growth stages

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hafizal, M. M.; Idris, A. B.

    2013-11-01

    The leafhopper (Homoptera: Delphacidae) and planthopper (Homoptera: Cicadelidae) are considered as important rice pest in Asia including Malaysia. As phloem-feeders, they can cause loss to rice growth development and their population abundance is thought to be influenced by rice growth stages. This study was conducted to examine the population of Delphacidae and Cicadelidae between different rice growth stages, i.e. before and after rice planting periods. Monthly sampling was conducted in three sites in Kuala Selangor at before planting, vegetative, reproductive, maturing stages and post-harvest period using sweeping net and light traps. Population abundance of Delphacidae and Cicadelidae were found to be significantly different and positively correlated with different rice growth stages (p<0.05). Delphacidae was most abundance during maturing stages, while the abundance of Cicadelidae peaked during reproductive stage of rice growth. Differences in temporal abundance of the population of these two homopterans indicated adaptive feeding strategy to reduce food competition.

  10. Using a laboratory-based growth model to estimate mass- and temperature-dependent growth parameters across populations of juvenile Chinook Salmon

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Perry, Russell W.; Plumb, John M.; Huntington, Charles

    2015-01-01

    To estimate the parameters that govern mass- and temperature-dependent growth, we conducted a meta-analysis of existing growth data from juvenile Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha that were fed an ad libitum ration of a pelleted diet. Although the growth of juvenile Chinook Salmon has been well studied, research has focused on a single population, a narrow range of fish sizes, or a narrow range of temperatures. Therefore, we incorporated the Ratkowsky model for temperature-dependent growth into an allometric growth model; this model was then fitted to growth data from 11 data sources representing nine populations of juvenile Chinook Salmon. The model fit the growth data well, explaining 98% of the variation in final mass. The estimated allometric mass exponent (b) was 0.338 (SE = 0.025), similar to estimates reported for other salmonids. This estimate of b will be particularly useful for estimating mass-standardized growth rates of juvenile Chinook Salmon. In addition, the lower thermal limit, optimal temperature, and upper thermal limit for growth were estimated to be 1.8°C (SE = 0.63°C), 19.0°C (SE = 0.27°C), and 24.9°C (SE = 0.02°C), respectively. By taking a meta-analytical approach, we were able to provide a growth model that is applicable across populations of juvenile Chinook Salmon receiving an ad libitum ration of a pelleted diet.

  11. Lack of compensatory body growth in a high performance moose Alces alces population.

    PubMed

    Solberg, Erling J; Garel, Mathieu; Heim, Morten; Grøtan, Vidar; Saether, Bernt-Erik

    2008-12-01

    Considerable work has been done on disentangling important factors determining early development in body size, yet our knowledge of the extent to which animals living under varying conditions can achieve catch-up growth for a bad start in life is limited. Here, we investigated how body mass at the age of 8 months influenced adult body mass in a moose Alces alces population living under excellent environmental conditions on the island of Vega in northern Norway. We also investigated if mother age and birth date effects on calf body mass persisted until adulthood. We show that neither males nor females were able to show compensatory growth before they reached adulthood, and that part of the variation in adult body mass may have been due to variation in mother age and date of birth. The pattern observed in males can be related to their growth strategy in relation to reproduction, while such results were not expected in females where size-dependent start of reproduction is likely to interact with body growth. We suggest that the good environmental conditions experienced on Vega led to females having small somatic costs of an early start of reproduction or that larger females were able to acquire more resources for growth than their smaller conspecifics. In both cases, females that postpone their first reproduction may not be able to achieve catch-up growth for their lower early body mass compared to females that start reproduction at an early age. Our results concur with previous studies indicating that compensatory growth is weak in moose, increasing the likelihood that variation in life history characters are also transferred between generations.

  12. Biomass, growth, and development of populations of herbivorous zooplankton in the southeastern Bering Sea during spring

    SciTech Connect

    Vidal, J.; Smith, S.L.

    1985-09-01

    Two distinct communities of herbivorous zooplankton, separated by an oceanographic front, inhabit the continental shelf and slope of the southeastern Bering Sea during spring. The community over the outer shelf and slope is dominated by populations of large-sized oceanic copepods (mainly Neocalanus ssp.) that develop early in spring and attain maximum biomass and growth rates by mid- to late spring. Total biomass and growth rates of herbivores follow the spring outburst of phytoplankton; during April and May biomass increases from less than or equal to1 to approx.14 g C m/sup -2/ on the slope and to approx.10 g C m/sup -2/ on the outer shelf, and maximum growth rates >500 and approx.300 mg C m/sup -2/ day/sup -1/ occure on the slope and outer shelf, respectively in May. The dominant species, N. plumchrus, grows from copepodid I and V between late March and early May, and after attaining maximum body weight in late May and early June it begins its downward migration. The inshore community on the middle shelf is dominated by the euphausiid Thysanoessa raschi in April and May and by the copepod Calanus marshallae in late May and early June. Total biomass (less than or equal to g C m/sup -2/) and growth rates (less than or equal to50 mg C m/sup -2/) of the inshore community are substantially lower than those of the offshore community and show a delayed response to the spring bloom of phytoplankton; both biomass and growth rates increase about one month after the bloom. Small herbivorous copepods contributed little to the total biomass and growth rates of either community and the cumulative community growth rates during April and May decreases from 18.3 g C m/sup -2/ on the slope to 2.5 g C m/sup -2/ on the middle shelf. 79 refs., 15 figs., 7 tabs.

  13. National Health Expenditure Growth in the 1980's: An Aging Population, New Technologies, and Increasing Competition

    PubMed Central

    Freeland, Mark S.; Schendler, Carol Ellen

    1983-01-01

    Health care spending in the United States more than tripled between 1971 and 1981, increasing from $83 billion to $287 billion. This growth in health sector spending substantially outpaced overall growth in the economy, averaging 13.2 percent per year compared to 10.5 percent for the gross national product (GNP). By 1981, one out of every ten dollars of GNP was spent on health care, compared to one out of every thirteen dollars of GNP in 1971. If current trends continue and if present health care financing arrangements remain basically unchanged, national health expenditures are projected to reach approximately $756 billion in 1990 and consume roughly 12 percent of GNP. The focal issue in health care today is cost and cost Increases. The outlook for the 1980's is for continued rapid growth but at a diminished rate. The primary force behind this moderating growth is projected lower inflation. However, real growth rates are also expected to moderate slightly. The chief factors influencing the growth of health expenditures in the eighties are expected to be aging of the population, new medical technologies, increasing competition, restrained public funding, growth in real income, increased health manpower, and a deceleration in economy-wide inflation. Managers, policy makers and providers in the health sector, as in all sectors, must include in today's decisions probable future trends. Inflation, economic shocks, and unanticipated outcomes of policies over the last decade have intensified the need for periodic assessments of individual industries and their relationship to the macro economy. This article provides such an assessment for the health care industry. Baseline current-law projections of national health expenditures are made to 1990. PMID:10309852

  14. Agricultural adjuvants: acute mortality and effects on population growth rate of Daphnia pulex after chronic exposure.

    PubMed

    Stark, John D; Walthall, William K

    2003-12-01

    Acute and chronic toxicity of eight agricultural adjuvants (Bond, Kinetic, Plyac, R-11, Silwet L-77, Sylgard 309, X-77, and WaterMaxx) to Daphnia pulex were evaluated with 48-h acute lethal concentration estimates (LC50) and a 10-d population growth-rate measurement, the instantaneous rate of increase (r1). Based on LC50, the order of toxicity was R-11 > X-77 = Sylgard 309 = Silwet L-77 > Kinetic > Bond > Plyac > WaterMaxx; all LC50 estimates were higher than the expected environmental concentration (EEC) of 0.79 mg/L, indicating that none of these adjuvants should cause high levels of mortality in wild D. pulex populations. Extinction, defined as negative population growth rate, occurred after exposure to 0.9 mg/L R-11, 13 mg/L X-77, 25 mg/L Kinetic, 28 mg/L Silwet, 18 mg/L Sylgard, 450 mg/L Bond, 610 mg/L Plyac, and 1,600 mg/L WaterMaxx. Concentrations that caused extinction were substantially below the acute LC50 for R-11, Kinetic, Plyac, X-77, and Bond. The no-observable-effects concentration (NOEC) and lowest-observable-effects concentration (LOEC) for the number of offspring per surviving female after exposure to R-11 were 0.5 and 0.75 mg/L, respectively. The NOEC and LOEC for population size after exposure to R-11 were (1.25 and 0.5 mg/L, respectively. Both of these values were lower than the EEC, indicating that R-11 does have the potential to cause damage to D. pulex populations after application at recommended field rates. The wide range of concentrations causing extinction makes it difficult to generalize about the potential impacts that agricultural adjuvants might have on aquatic ecosystems. Therefore, additional studies that examine effects on other nontarget organisms and determine residues in aquatic ecosystems may be warranted.

  15. Comparison of the Effects of Wave-Particle Interactions and the Kinetic Suprathermal Electron Population on the Acceleration of the Solar Wind

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tam, S. W. Y.; Chang, T.

    2002-01-01

    Kinetic effects due to wave-particle interactions and suprathermal electrons have been suggested in the literature as possible solar wind acceleration mechanisms. Ion cyclotron resonant heating, in particular, has been associated with some qualitative features observed in the solar wind. In terms of solar wind acceleration, however, it is interesting to compare the kinetic effects of suprathermal electrons with those due to the wave-particle interactions. The combined effects of the two acceleration mechanisms on the fast solar wind have been studied by Tam and Chang (1999a,b). In this study. we investigate the role of the suprathermal electron population in the acceleration of the solar wind. Our model follows the global kinetic evolution of the fast solar wind under the influence of ion cyclotron resonant heating, while taking into account Coulomb collisions, and the ambipolar electric field that is consistent with the particle distributions themselves. The kinetic effects due to the suprathermal electrons, which we define to be the tail of the electron distributions, can be included in the model as an option. By comparing the results with and without the inclusion of the suprathermal electron effects, we determine the relative importance of suprathermal electrons and wave-particle interactions in driving the solar wind. We find that although suprathermal electrons enhance the ambipolar electric potential in the solar wind considerably, their overall influence as an acceleration mechanism is relatively insignificant in a wave-driven solar wind.

  16. Can the Site-Frequency Spectrum Distinguish Exponential Population Growth from Multiple-Merger Coalescents?

    PubMed Central

    Eldon, Bjarki; Birkner, Matthias; Blath, Jochen; Freund, Fabian

    2015-01-01

    The ability of the site-frequency spectrum (SFS) to reflect the particularities of gene genealogies exhibiting multiple mergers of ancestral lines as opposed to those obtained in the presence of population growth is our focus. An excess of singletons is a well-known characteristic of both population growth and multiple mergers. Other aspects of the SFS, in particular, the weight of the right tail, are, however, affected in specific ways by the two model classes. Using an approximate likelihood method and minimum-distance statistics, our estimates of statistical power indicate that exponential and algebraic growth can indeed be distinguished from multiple-merger coalescents, even for moderate sample sizes, if the number of segregating sites is high enough. A normalized version of the SFS (nSFS) is also used as a summary statistic in an approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) approach. The results give further positive evidence as to the general eligibility of the SFS to distinguish between the different histories. PMID:25575536

  17. Is wide availability of abortion essential to national population growth control programs? Experiences of 116 countries.

    PubMed

    Mumford, S D; Kessel, E

    1984-07-15

    No nation wanting to reduce its growth rate to less than or equal to 1% can expect to do so without the widespread use of abortion. This study, based on the experience of 116 of the world's largest countries, supports the contention that abortion is essential to any national population growth control effort. Existing circumstances in developed countries have facilitated reduction of growth rates to less than 1%, with abortion rates generally in the range of 200 to 500 per 1000 live births. However, developing countries are faced with a different and more difficult set of circumstances that require even greater reliance on abortion. These obstacles include a young population with resultant rapidly growing numbers of young fertile women, poor contraceptive use-effectiveness, low prevalence of contraception, and poor or nonexistent systems for providing contraceptives. By virtue of their profession, physicians play a critical role in family planning and carry a special responsibility in ensuring that abortion services are available to all women who need them.

  18. Influence of projected ocean warming on population growth potential in two North Atlantic copepod species

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stegert, Christoph; Ji, Rubao; Davis, Cabell S.

    2010-10-01

    Copepods of the genera Pseudocalanus and Centropages play an important role in the North Atlantic ecosystems and have distinctive spatial and temporal patterns depending on physiological adaptation to different environmental conditions. To examine the possible impact of climate change on these biogeographic patterns, potential population growth rate was computed for each species using IPCC projections of sea surface temperature together with chlorophyll distributions from SeaWiFS climatology and published laboratory data on temperature and food-dependent life-history parameters. The results indicate that the predicted temperature increase throughout the North Atlantic will cause temporal and spatial shifts in copepod species population growth potential. The Centropages population is projected to increase in mid-latitudinal shelf areas, e.g. the Gulf of Maine and the North Sea, due to shorter generation times and a longer growing season, while Pseudocalanus is predicted to be less abundant in these regions after 2050. These shifts potentially have a significant impact on the future demographics of pelagic fish species for which the copepods are the major food source.

  19. Biodiversity of a Burkholderia cepacia population isolated from the maize rhizosphere at different plant growth stages.

    PubMed

    Di Cello, F; Bevivino, A; Chiarini, L; Fani, R; Paffetti, D; Tabacchioni, S; Dalmastri, C

    1997-11-01

    A Burkholderia cepacia population naturally occurring in the rhizosphere of Zea mays was investigated in order to assess the degree of root association and microbial biodiversity at five stages of plant growth. The bacterial strains isolated on semiselective PCAT medium were mostly assigned to the species B. cepacia by an analysis of the restriction patterns produced by amplified DNA coding for 16S rRNA (16S rDNA) (ARDRA) with the enzyme AluI. Partial 16S rDNA nucleotide sequences of some randomly chosen isolates confirmed the ARDRA results. Throughout the study, B. cepacia was strictly associated with maize roots, ranging from 0.6 to 3.6% of the total cultivable microflora. Biodiversity among 83 B. cepacia isolates was analyzed by the random amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD) technique with two 10-mer primers. An analysis of RAPD patterns by the analysis of molecular variance method revealed a high level of intraspecific genetic diversity in this B. cepacia population. Moreover, the genetic diversity was related to divergences among maize root samplings, with microbial genetic variability markedly higher in the first stages of plant growth; in other words, the biodiversity of this rhizosphere bacterial population decreased over time. PMID:9361434

  20. Dynamical consequences of adaptation of the growth rates in a system of three competing populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dimitrova, Zlatinka I.; Vitanov, Nikolay K.

    2001-09-01

    We investigate the nonlinear dynamics of a system of populations competing for the same limited resource for the case where each of the populations adapts its growth rate to the total number of individuals in all populations. We consider regions of parameter space where chaotic motion of the Shilnikov kind exists and present results for two characteristic values of the growth ratio adaptation factor r*: r* = -0.15 and 5. Negative r* can lead to vanishing of regions of chaotic motion and to a stabilization of a fixed point of the studied model system of differential equations. Positive r* lead to changes of the shape of the bifurcation diagrams in comparison with the bifurcation diagrams for the case without adaptation. For the case r* = 5 we observe transition to chaos by period-doubling bifurcations, windows of periodic motion between the regions of chaotic motion and a region of transient chaos after the last window of periodic motion. The Lyapunov dimension for the chaotic attractors is close to two and the Lyapunov spectrum has a structure which allows a topological analysis of the attractors of the investigated system.

  1. Lung fibroblasts accelerate wound closure in human alveolar epithelial cells through hepatocyte growth factor/c-Met signaling

    PubMed Central

    Correll, Kelly; Schiel, John A.; Finigan, Jay H.; Prekeris, Rytis; Mason, Robert J.

    2014-01-01

    There are 190,600 cases of acute lung injury/acute respiratory distress syndrome (ALI/ARDS) each year in the United States, and the incidence and mortality of ALI/ARDS increase dramatically with age. Patients with ALI/ARDS have alveolar epithelial injury, which may be worsened by high-pressure mechanical ventilation. Alveolar type II (ATII) cells are the progenitor cells for the alveolar epithelium and are required to reestablish the alveolar epithelium during the recovery process from ALI/ARDS. Lung fibroblasts (FBs) migrate and proliferate early after lung injury and likely are an important source of growth factors for epithelial repair. However, how lung FBs affect epithelial wound healing in the human adult lung has not been investigated in detail. Hepatocyte growth factor (HGF) is known to be released mainly from FBs and to stimulate both migration and proliferation of primary rat ATII cells. HGF is also increased in lung tissue, bronchoalveolar lavage fluid, and serum in patients with ALI/ARDS. Therefore, we hypothesized that HGF secreted by FBs would enhance wound closure in alveolar epithelial cells (AECs). Wound closure was measured using a scratch wound-healing assay in primary human AEC monolayers and in a coculture system with FBs. We found that wound closure was accelerated by FBs mainly through HGF/c-Met signaling. HGF also restored impaired wound healing in AECs from the elderly subjects and after exposure to cyclic stretch. We conclude that HGF is the critical factor released from FBs to close wounds in human AEC monolayers and suggest that HGF is a potential strategy for hastening alveolar repair in patients with ALI/ARDS. PMID:24748602

  2. Early Stages Of Biome Shift in Boreal Alaska: Climate Sensitivity of Tree Growth and Accelerated Tree Mortality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Juday, G. P.; Grant, T.; Alix, C. M.; Spencer, D. L.; Beck, P. S.

    2012-12-01

    The boreal forest region of Alaska is characterized by a major east-west climate gradient, in addition to a widely appreciated north-south gradient. Low elevations of the eastern and central Interior experience warm summer temperatures and low annual precipitation, while coastal western Alaska has cool summer temperatures and greater precipitation. In the Interior the four dominant tree species of white and black spruce, aspen, and Alaska birch on low elevation sites nearly all register a strong negative radial growth relationship to summer temperatures, concentrated in May and July. Precipitation, particularly in late winter and midsummer, plays a supplemental role as a positive factor in growth. Floodplain white spruce along the Yukon and Kuskokwim Rivers transition from negative temperature response to positive response in western Alaska near the tree limit. Populations of white spruce on treeline sites display both negative growth response to July temperature and positive response to spring temperatures, with the negative response dominant in the east and the positive response dominant in the west. Across boreal Alaska summer temperatures increased abruptly in 1974, and have remained at historically high levels since. Correspondingly, climatic favorability for radial growth of Interior trees on most low elevation sites has been at extreme low levels particularly in the 21st century. Satellite-based NDVI coverage confirms that forest growth reduction is widespread in boreal Alaska since the 1980s. Defoliating and wood boring insects have reached outbreak population levels across most of boreal Alaska, partly from release of direct temperature control on the insects and partly from increased tree host susceptibility. Major outbreak species include aspen leaf miner, spruce engraver beetle, and spruce budworm. About a dozen tall willow species have been subjected to widespread attack by willow leaf blotch miner, and a new disease and defoliating insect have spread

  3. Population growth rate and genetic variability of small and large populations of Red flour beetle (Tribolium castaneum) following multigenerational exposure to copper.

    PubMed

    Laskowski, Ryszard; Radwan, Jacek; Kuduk, Katarzyna; Mendrok, Magdalena; Kramarz, Paulina

    2015-07-01

    We reared large (1000 individuals) and small (20 individuals) populations of Tribolium castaneum on diet contaminated with copper in order to determine if the size of a population affects its ability to adapt to adverse environmental conditions. After 10 generations, we used microsatellite markers to estimate and subsequently compare the genetic variability of the copper-treated populations with that of the control populations, which were reared on uncontaminated medium. Additionally, we conducted a full cross-factorial experiment which evaluated the effects of 10 generations of "pre-exposure" to copper on a population's fitness in control and copper-contaminated environments. In order to distinguish results potentially arising from genetic adaptation from those due to non-genetic effects associated to parental exposure to copper, we subjected also F11 generation, originating from parents not exposed to copper, to the same cross-factorial experiment. The effects of long-term exposure to copper depended on population size: the growth rates of small populations that were pre-exposed to copper were inhibited compared to those of small populations reared in uncontaminated environments. Large Cu-exposed populations had a higher growth rate in the F10 generation compared to the control groups, while the growth rate of the F11 generation was unaffected by copper exposure history. The only factor that had a significant effect on genetic variability was population size, but this was to be expected given the large difference in the number of individuals between large and small populations. Neither copper contamination nor its interaction with population size affected the number of microsatellite alleles retained in the F10 generation.

  4. Overexpression of vascular endothelial growth factor accelerates early vascularization and improves healing of genetically modified cultured skin substitutes.

    PubMed

    Supp, Dorothy M; Boyce, Steven T

    2002-01-01

    Cultured skin substitutes (CSS) lack a vascular plexus, leading to slower vascularization after grafting than split-thickness skin autograft. CSS containing keratinocytes genetically modified to overexpress vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) were previously shown to exhibit enhanced vascularization up to 2 weeks after grafting to athymic mice. The present study examines whether enhanced vascularization compared with controls persists after stable engraftment is achieved and analyzes VEGF expression, wound contraction, and engraftment. Control and VEGF-modified (VEGF+) CSS were grafted onto full-thickness wounds in athymic mice. VEGF expression was detected in VEGF+ CSS 14 weeks after grafting. Graft contraction was significantly lower in VEGF+ CSS compared with controls, suggesting more stable engraftment and better tissue development. Positive HLA-ABC staining, indicating persistence of human cells, was seen in 86.7% (13/15) of grafted VEGF+ CSS, compared with 58.3% (7/12) of controls. Differences in dermal vascularization between control and VEGF+ grafts were significant 1 week after surgery, but not at later times. However, the distribution of vessels was different, with more vessels in the upper dermis of VEGF+ grafts. These results suggest that VEGF overexpression in genetically modified CSS acts to accelerate early graft vascularization and can contribute to improved healing of full-thickness skin wounds.

  5. MIIP accelerates epidermal growth factor receptor protein turnover and attenuates proliferation in non-small cell lung cancer

    PubMed Central

    Wen, Jing; Fu, Jianhua; Ling, Yihong; Zhang, Wei

    2016-01-01

    The migration and invasion inhibitory protein (MIIP) has been discovered recently to have inhibitory functions in cell proliferation and migration. Overexpression of MIIP reduced the intracellular steady-state level of epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) protein in lung cancer cells with no effect on EGFR mRNA expression compared to that in the control cells. This MIIP-promoted EGFR protein degradation was reversed by proteasome and lysosome inhibitors, suggesting the involvement of both proteasomal and lysosomal pathways in this degradation. This finding was further validated by pulse-chase experiments using 35S-methionine metabolic labeling. We found that MIIP accelerates EGFR protein turnover via proteasomal degradation in the endoplasmic reticulum and then via the lysosomal pathway after its entry into endocytic trafficking. MIIP-stimulated downregulation of EGFR inhibits downstream activation of Ras and blocks the MEK signal transduction pathway, resulting in inhibition of cell proliferation. The negative correlation between MIIP and EGFR protein expression was validated in lung adenocarcinoma samples. Furthermore, the higher MIIP protein expression predicts a better overall survival of Stage IA-IIIA lung adenocarcinoma patients who underwent radical surgery. These findings reveal a new mechanism by which MIIP inhibits cell proliferation. PMID:26824318

  6. Accelerated tissue integration into porous materials by immobilizing basic fibroblast growth factor using a biologically safe three-step reaction.

    PubMed

    Kakinoki, Sachiro; Sakai, Yusuke; Fujisato, Toshia; Yamaoka, Tetsuji

    2015-12-01

    Soft tissue integration into a porous structure is important to prevent bacterial infection of percutaneous devices and improve tissue regeneration using porous scaffolds. Here, basic fibroblast growth factor (bFGF) was immobilized on porous polymer materials using a mild and biologically safe three-step reaction: (1) modification with a novel surface-modification peptide (penta-lysine-mussel adhesive sequence, which reacts with various matrices), (2) electrostatic binding of heparin with introduced penta-lysine, and (3) biologically specific binding of bFGF to heparin. Porous polyethylene specimens (PPSs) (D = 6.0 mm, H = 2.0 mm) with a good size for tissue integration were selected as a base material, immobilized with bFGF, and subcutaneously implanted into mice. Half of the unmodified PPSs extruded out of the body on day 112 postimplantation; however, the three-step reaction completely prevented sample rejection. Tissue integration was greatly accelerated by immobilizing bFGF. Direct physical coating of bFGF on PPS resulted in greater immobilization but lesser tissue integration than that after the three-step bFGF immobilization, indicating that heparin binds and enhances bFGF efficacy. This three-step bFGF immobilization reaction will be applicable to various polymeric, metallic, and ceramic materials and is a simple strategy to integrate tissue on porous medical devices or scaffolds for tissue regeneration. PMID:26034014

  7. Accelerated tissue integration into porous materials by immobilizing basic fibroblast growth factor using a biologically safe three-step reaction.

    PubMed

    Kakinoki, Sachiro; Sakai, Yusuke; Fujisato, Toshia; Yamaoka, Tetsuji

    2015-12-01

    Soft tissue integration into a porous structure is important to prevent bacterial infection of percutaneous devices and improve tissue regeneration using porous scaffolds. Here, basic fibroblast growth factor (bFGF) was immobilized on porous polymer materials using a mild and biologically safe three-step reaction: (1) modification with a novel surface-modification peptide (penta-lysine-mussel adhesive sequence, which reacts with various matrices), (2) electrostatic binding of heparin with introduced penta-lysine, and (3) biologically specific binding of bFGF to heparin. Porous polyethylene specimens (PPSs) (D = 6.0 mm, H = 2.0 mm) with a good size for tissue integration were selected as a base material, immobilized with bFGF, and subcutaneously implanted into mice. Half of the unmodified PPSs extruded out of the body on day 112 postimplantation; however, the three-step reaction completely prevented sample rejection. Tissue integration was greatly accelerated by immobilizing bFGF. Direct physical coating of bFGF on PPS resulted in greater immobilization but lesser tissue integration than that after the three-step bFGF immobilization, indicating that heparin binds and enhances bFGF efficacy. This three-step bFGF immobilization reaction will be applicable to various polymeric, metallic, and ceramic materials and is a simple strategy to integrate tissue on porous medical devices or scaffolds for tissue regeneration.

  8. Optimal policies aimed at stabilization of populations with logistic growth under human intervention.

    PubMed

    Cruz-Rivera, Erica; Vasilieva, Olga

    2013-02-01

    This work examines both positive and negative impacts that economic growth may have on the ecological dynamics and stability of a single biological species. Local extinction of the species may force the social planner to implement defensive expenditures aimed at conservation of the species population by means of habitat protection. The latter may lead to an ecological equilibrium that will be different from the natural equilibrium that would have arisen in the absence of human intervention. Moreover, the existence of such equilibrium is formally demonstrated and its stability properties are revised. Additionally, optimal-choice decision policies are constructed on the basis of Pontryagin's maximum principle. Under such policies together with initial abundance of the species, the growth trajectories will move the system towards the fixed point of maximum species abundance.

  9. Long-term growth of desert tortoises (Gopherus agassizii) in a southern Nevada population

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Medica, Philip A.; Nussear, Kenneth E.; Esque, Todd C.; Saethre, Mary B.

    2012-01-01

    Knowledge of growth rates, age at maturity, and longevity are important aspects of a species life history and are directly applicable to life table creation and population viability analyses. We measured the growth of a cohort of 17 semi-wild Desert Tortoises (Gopherus agassizii) located in Rock Valley, Nevada over a 47-yr period beginning in 1963. The tortoises were initially marked as hatchling and juvenile animals between the years 1963 and 1965 and ranged in size from 47 to 77 mm in plastron length. We assigned ages of 1--4 yr to the tortoises at initial capture based on their body size. These tortoises were recaptured, measured, and weighed approximately annually since their initial capture. Growth of male and female tortoises did not differ significantly until animals reached the age of 23--25 yr. Annual tortoise growth was correlated with the production of ephemeral vegetation, while accounting for size, sex, and repeated measurements of the animals as well as the interval between measurements. However, the production of ephemeral plants was likewise highly correlated (non-linearly) with winter rainfall. Stochastic predation events between 2003 and 2007 decimated this cohort of tortoises. The average age of the long-term surviving tortoises from this cohort was 43 yr with a range of 39--47 yr. Twelve of the tortoises survived to the age of 39 yr and 11 of the 12 reached 40 yr.

  10. Long-term growth of Desert Tortoises (Gopherus agassizii) in a southern Nevada population

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Medica, P.A.; Nussear, Kenneth E.; Esque, Todd C.; Saethre, Mary B.

    2012-01-01

    Knowledge of growth rates, age at maturity, and longevity are important aspects of a species life history and are directly applicable to life table creation and population viability analyses. We measured the growth of a cohort of 17 semi-wild Desert Tortoises (Gopherus agassizii) located in Rock Valley, Nevada over a 47-yr period beginning in 1963. The tortoises were initially marked as hatchling and juvenile animals between the years 1963 and 1965 and ranged in size from 47 to 77 mm in plastron length. We assigned ages of 1-4 yr to the tortoises at initial capture based on their body size. These tortoises were recaptured, measured, and weighed approximately annually since their initial capture. Growth of male and female tortoises did not differ significantly until animals reached the age of 23-25 yr. Annual tortoise growth was correlated with the production of ephemeral vegetation, while accounting for size, sex, and repeated measurements of the animals as well as the interval between measurements. However, the production of ephemeral plants was likewise highly correlated (non-linearly) with winter rainfall. Stochastic predation events between 2003 and 2007 decimated this cohort of tortoises. The average age of the long-term surviving tortoises from this cohort was 43 yr with a range of 39-47 yr. Twelve of the tortoises survived to the age of 39 yr and 11 of the 12 reached 40 yr.

  11. Phylogenetic prediction of the maximum per capita rate of population growth.

    PubMed

    Fagan, William F; Pearson, Yanthe E; Larsen, Elise A; Lynch, Heather J; Turner, Jessica B; Staver, Hilary; Noble, Andrew E; Bewick, Sharon; Goldberg, Emma E

    2013-07-22

    The maximum per capita rate of population growth, r, is a central measure of population biology. However, researchers can only directly calculate r when adequate time series, life tables and similar datasets are available. We instead view r as an evolvable, synthetic life-history trait and use comparative phylogenetic approaches to predict r for poorly known species. Combining molecular phylogenies, life-history trait data and stochastic macroevolutionary models, we predicted r for mammals of the Caniformia and Cervidae. Cross-validation analyses demonstrated that, even with sparse life-history data, comparative methods estimated r well and outperformed models based on body mass. Values of r predicted via comparative methods were in strong rank agreement with observed values and reduced mean prediction errors by approximately 68 per cent compared with two null models. We demonstrate the utility of our method by estimating r for 102 extant species in these mammal groups with unknown life-history traits.

  12. In the national interest: the PCSD puts population growth back on the agenda.

    PubMed

    Dixon, B

    1995-01-01

    In 1972, President Nixon launched the Rockefeller Commission on Population Growth and the American Future. The US population has grown by more than 50 million people since 1972. In 1995, a report by the President's Council on Sustainable Development (PCSD) states that failure on the part of the US to stabilize its population will jeopardize any effort to achieve sustainable development. As a follow-up to the Earth Summit, President Clinton established the PCSD in 1993 to identify ways to encourage sustainable development in the US. The Council has 25 members representing government, business, and public interest organizations and has 8 critical issues task forces, including Energy, Transportation, Sustainable Community, Education and Outreach, Natural Resources, Eco Efficiency and Sustainable Agriculture. Timothy Wirth, Under Secretary of State for Global Affairs, spearheaded efforts to create a task force on the twin issues of population and consumption. The Population and Consumption Task Force, which began its official discussions in the spring of 1994, aimed to solicit public comment on critical population-related issues. These meetings sought both general public and expert participation on subjects such as teen pregnancy, resource use, and economic indicators. Among these recommendations are improving access to family planning services for all Americans; focusing on special efforts to reduce teen pregnancy and childbearing; improving external factors such as poverty and a lack of economic opportunities for girls and women; and reducing immigration to the US. A combination of actions are needed, including a tax shift from labor and earnings to natural resource use; development of environmentally sound technologies; and public understanding of the importance of sustainable life style and consumption choices. Individual and community action is crucial since the current Congress is unlikely to adopt policies to promote sustainable development without significant

  13. [A model of world population growth as an experiment in systematic research].

    PubMed

    Kapitsa, S

    1997-01-01

    A mathematical model was developed for the estimation of global population growth, and the estimates were compared with those of the UN and covered the stretch of 4.4 million years B.C. to the years 2175 and 2500 A.D. The estimates were also broken down into human, geological, and technological historical periods. The model showed that human population would stabilize at the level of 14 billion around 2500 A.D. and 13 billion around 2200 A.D., in accordance with UN projections. It also revealed the history of human population growth through the following stages (UN figures are listed in parentheses): 100,000, about 1.6 million years ago; 5 (1-5) million, 35,000 B.C.; 21 (10-15) million, 7000 B.C.; 46 (47) million, 2000 B.C.; 93 (100-230) million, at the time of Christ; 185 (275-345) million, 1000 A.D.; 366 (450-540) million, 1500 A.D.; 887 (907) million, 1800 A.D.; 1158 (1170) million, 1850 A.D.; 1656 (1650-1710) million, 1900 A.D.; 2812 (2515) million, 1950 A.D.; 5253 (5328) million, 1990 A.D.; 6265 (6261) million, 2000 A.D.; 10,487 (10,019) million, 2050 A.D.; 12,034 (11,186) million, 2100 A.D.; 12,648 (11,543) million, 2150 A.D.; 12,946 (11,600) million, 2200 A.D.; and 13,536 million, 2500 A.D. The model advanced the investigation of phenomena by studying the interactions between economical, technological, social, cultural, and biological processes. The analysis showed that humanity has reached a critical phase in its growth and that development in each period depended on external, not internal, factors. This permits the formulation of the principle of demographic imperative (distinct from the Malthusian principle), which states that resources determine the speed and extent of the growth of population.

  14. Growth of bone marrow and skeletal muscle side population stem cells in suspension culture.

    PubMed

    Pacak, Christina A; Cowan, Douglas B

    2014-01-01

    The ability to efficiently isolate and expand various stem cell populations in vitro is crucial for successful translation of cell-based therapies to the clinical setting. One such heterogeneous population that possesses a remarkable potential for the development of cell-based treatments for a variety of degenerative diseases and disorders is called the Side Population (SP). For many years, investigators have isolated these primitive cells based upon their ability to efflux the fluorophore Hoechst 33342. This attribute enabled separation of SP cells derived from multiple tissue sources from other endogenous cell populations using fluorescence-activated cell sorting (FACS). While all tissue-specific SP fractions appear to contain cells with multi-potent stem cell activity, the therapeutic utility of these cells has yet to be fully realized because of the scarcity of this fraction in vivo. In view of that, we developed a method to expand adult murine bone marrow and skeletal muscle-derived SP cells in vitro. Here, we describe a spinner-flask culture system that supports the growth of SP cells in suspension when they are combined with feeder cells cultured on spherical microcarriers. In this way, their distinguishing biological characteristics can be maintained, attachment-stimulated differentiation is avoided, and therapeutically relevant quantities of SP cells are generated. Modification of the described procedure may permit expansion of the SP from other relevant tissue sources and our method is amenable to establishing compliance with current good manufacturing practices. PMID:25173160

  15. The uncertainty of future water supply adequacy in megacities: Effects of population growth and climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alarcon, T.; Garcia, M. E.; Small, D. L.; Portney, K.; Islam, S.

    2013-12-01

    Providing water to the expanding population of megacities, which have over 10 million people, with a stressed and aging water infrastructure creates unprecedented challenges. These challenges are exacerbated by dwindling supply and competing demands, altered precipitation and runoff patterns in a changing climate, fragmented water utility business models, and changing consumer behavior. While there is an extensive literature on the effects of climate change on water resources, the uncertainty of climate change predictions continues to be high. This hinders the value of these predictions for municipal water supply planning. The ability of water utilities to meet future water needs will largely depend on their capacity to make decisions under uncertainty. Water stressors, like changes in demographics, climate, and socioeconomic patterns, have varying degrees of uncertainty. Identifying which stressors will have a greater impact on water resources, may reduce the level of future uncertainty for planning and managing water utilities. Within this context, we analyze historical and projected changes of population and climate to quantify the relative impacts of these two stressors on water resources. We focus on megacities that rely primarily on surface water resources to evaluate (a) population growth pattern from 1950-2010 and projected population for 2010-2060; (b) climate change impact on projected climate change scenarios for 2010-2060; and (c) water access for 1950-2010; projected needs for 2010-2060.

  16. Contributions of vital rates to growth of a protected population of American black bears

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mitchell, M.S.; Pacifici, L.B.; Grand, J.B.; Powell, R.A.

    2009-01-01

    Analyses of large, long-lived animals suggest that adult survival generally has the potential to contribute more than reproduction to population growth rate (??), but because survival varies little, high variability in reproduction can have a greater influence. This pattern has been documented for several species of large mammals, but few studies have evaluated such contributions of vital rates to ?? for American black bears (Ursus americanus). We used variance-based perturbation analyses (life table response experiments, LTRE) and analytical sensitivity and elasticity analyses to examine the actual and potential contributions of variation of vital rates to variation in growth rate (??) of a population of black bears inhabiting the Pisgah Bear Sanctuary in the southern Appalachian Mountains of North Carolina, using a 22-year dataset. We found that recruitment varied more than other vital rates; LTRE analyses conducted over several time intervals thus indicated that recruitment generally contributed at least as much as juvenile and adult survival to observed variation in ??, even though the latter 2 vital rates had the greater potential to affect ??. Our findings are consistent with predictions from studies on polar bears (U. maritimus) and grizzly bears (U. arctos), but contrast with the few existing studies on black bears in ways that suggest levels of protection from human-caused mortality might explain whether adult survival or recruitment contribute most to variation in ?? for this species. We hypothesize that ?? is most strongly influenced by recruitment in protected populations where adult survival is relatively high and constant, whereas adult survival will most influence ?? for unprotected populations. ?? 2009 International Association for Bear Research and Management.

  17. Bushmeat poaching reduces the seed dispersal and population growth rate of a mammal-dispersed tree.

    PubMed

    Brodie, Jedediah F; Helmy, Olga E; Brockelman, Warren Y; Maron, John L

    2009-06-01

    Myriad tropical vertebrates are threatened by overharvest. Whether this harvest has indirect effects on nonhunted organisms that interact with the game species is a critical question. Many tropical birds and mammals disperse seeds. Their overhunting in forests can cause zoochorous trees to suffer from reduced seed dispersal. Yet how these reductions in seed dispersal influence tree abundance and population dynamics remains unclear. Reproductive parameters in long-lived organisms often have very low elasticities; indeed the demographic importance of seed dispersal is an open question. We asked how variation in hunting pressure across four national parks with seasonal forest in northern Thailand influenced the relative abundance of gibbons, muntjac deer, and sambar deer, the sole dispersers of seeds of the canopy tree Choerospondias axillaris. We quantified how variation in disperser numbers affected C. axillaris seed dispersal and seedling abundance across the four parks. We then used these data in a structured population model based on vital rates measured in Khao Yai National Park (where poaching pressure is minimal) to explore how variation in illegal hunting pressure might influence C. axillaris population growth and persistence. Densities of the mammals varied strongly across the parks, from relatively high in Khao Yai to essentially zero in Doi Suthep-Pui. Levels of C. axillaris seed dispersal and seedling abundance positively tracked mammal density. If hunting in Khao Yai were to increase to the levels seen in the other parks, C. axillaris population growth rate would decline, but only slightly. Extinction of C. axillaris is a real possibility, but may take many decades. Recent and ongoing extirpations of vertebrates in many tropical forests could be creating an extinction debt for zoochorous trees whose vulnerability is belied by their current abundance.

  18. Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor-A Is Associated with Chronic Mountain Sickness in the Andean Population

    PubMed Central

    Espinoza, Jose R.; Alvarez, Giancarlo; León-Velarde, Fabiola; Ju Preciado, Hugo F.; Macarlupu, Jose-Luis; Rivera-Ch, Maria; Rodriguez, Jorge; Favier, Judith; Gimenez-Roqueplo, Anne-Paule

    2014-01-01

    Abstract Es