Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME) Final Scientific/Technical Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chaudhary, Aashish

Seven Department of Energy (DOE) national laboratories, Universities, and Kitware, undertook a coordinated effort to build an Earth system modeling capability tailored to meet the climate change research strategic objectives of the DOE Office of Science, as well as the broader climate change application needs of other DOE programs.

Accelerating climate change impacts on alpine glacier forefield ecosystems in the European Alps.

PubMed

Cannone, Nicoletta; Diolaiuti, Guglielmina; Guglielmin, Mauro; Smiraglia, Claudio

2008-04-01

In the European Alps the increase in air temperature was more than twice the increase in global mean temperature over the last 50 years. The abiotic (glacial) and the biotic components (plants and vegetation) of the mountain environment are showing ample evidence of climate change impacts. In the Alps most small glaciers (80% of total glacial coverage and an important contribution to water resources) could disappear in the next decades. Recently climate change was demonstrated to affect higher levels of ecological systems, with vegetation exhibiting surface area changes, indicating that alpine and nival vegetation may be able to respond in a fast and flexible way in response to 1-2 degrees C warming. We analyzed the glacier evolution (terminus fluctuations, mass balances, surface area variations), local climate, and vegetation succession on the forefield of Sforzellina Glacier (Upper Valtellina, central Italian Alps) over the past three decades. We aimed to quantify the impacts of climate change on coupled biotic and abiotic components of high alpine ecosystems, to verify if an acceleration was occurring on them during the last decade (i.e., 1996-2006) and to assess whether new specific strategies were adopted for plant colonization and development. All the glaciological data indicate that a glacial retreat and shrinkage occurred and was much stronger after 2002 than during the last 35 years. Vegetation started to colonize surfaces deglaciated for only one year, with a rate at least four times greater than that reported in the literature for the establishment of scattered individuals and about two times greater for the well-established discontinuous early-successional community. The colonization strategy changed: the first colonizers are early-successional, scree slopes, and perennial clonal species with high phenotypic plasticity rather than pioneer and snowbed species. This impressive acceleration coincided with only slight local summer warming (approximately -0.5 degree C) and a poorly documented local decrease in the snow cover depth and duration. Are we facing accelerated ecological responses to climatic changes and/or did we go beyond a threshold over which major ecosystem changes may occur in response to even minor climatic variations?

Climate change accelerates growth of urban trees in metropolises worldwide.

PubMed

Pretzsch, Hans; Biber, Peter; Uhl, Enno; Dahlhausen, Jens; Schütze, Gerhard; Perkins, Diana; Rötzer, Thomas; Caldentey, Juan; Koike, Takayoshi; Con, Tran van; Chavanne, Aurélia; Toit, Ben du; Foster, Keith; Lefer, Barry

2017-11-13

Despite the importance of urban trees, their growth reaction to climate change and to the urban heat island effect has not yet been investigated with an international scope. While we are well informed about forest growth under recent conditions, it is unclear if this knowledge can be simply transferred to urban environments. Based on tree ring analyses in ten metropolises worldwide, we show that, in general, urban trees have undergone accelerated growth since the 1960s. In addition, urban trees tend to grow more quickly than their counterparts in the rural surroundings. However, our analysis shows that climate change seems to enhance the growth of rural trees more than that of urban trees. The benefits of growing in an urban environment seem to outweigh known negative effects, however, accelerated growth may also mean more rapid ageing and shortened lifetime. Thus, city planners should adapt to the changed dynamics in order to secure the ecosystem services provided by urban trees.

A new perspective on global mean sea level (GMSL) acceleration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watson, Phil J.

2016-06-01

The vast body of contemporary climate change science is largely underpinned by the premise of a measured acceleration from anthropogenic forcings evident in key climate change proxies -- greenhouse gas emissions, temperature, and mean sea level. By virtue, over recent years, the issue of whether or not there is a measurable acceleration in global mean sea level has resulted in fierce, widespread professional, social, and political debate. Attempts to measure acceleration in global mean sea level (GMSL) have often used comparatively crude analysis techniques providing little temporal instruction on these key questions. This work proposes improved techniques to measure real-time velocity and acceleration based on five GMSL reconstructions spanning the time frame from 1807 to 2014 with substantially improved temporal resolution. While this analysis highlights key differences between the respective reconstructions, there is now more robust, convincing evidence of recent acceleration in the trend of GMSL.

Temperature variability is a key component in accurately forecasting the effects of climate change on pest phenology.

PubMed

Merrill, Scott C; Peairs, Frank B

2017-02-01

Models describing the effects of climate change on arthropod pest ecology are needed to help mitigate and adapt to forthcoming changes. Challenges arise because climate data are at resolutions that do not readily synchronize with arthropod biology. Here we explain how multiple sources of climate and weather data can be synthesized to quantify the effects of climate change on pest phenology. Predictions of phenological events differ substantially between models that incorporate scale-appropriate temperature variability and models that do not. As an illustrative example, we predicted adult emergence of a pest of sunflower, the sunflower stem weevil Cylindrocopturus adspersus (LeConte). Predictions of the timing of phenological events differed by an average of 11 days between models with different temperature variability inputs. Moreover, as temperature variability increases, developmental rates accelerate. Our work details a phenological modeling approach intended to help develop tools to plan for and mitigate the effects of climate change. Results show that selection of scale-appropriate temperature data is of more importance than selecting a climate change emission scenario. Predictions derived without appropriate temperature variability inputs will likely result in substantial phenological event miscalculations. Additionally, results suggest that increased temperature instability will lead to accelerated pest development. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry.

Climate and marine biogeochemistry during the Holocene from transient model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Segschneider, Joachim; Schneider, Birgit; Khon, Vyacheslav

2018-06-01

Climate and marine biogeochemistry changes over the Holocene are investigated based on transient global climate and biogeochemistry model simulations over the last 9500 years. The simulations are forced by accelerated and non-accelerated orbital parameters, respectively, and atmospheric pCO2, CH4, and N2O. The analysis focusses on key climatic parameters of relevance to the marine biogeochemistry, and on the physical and biogeochemical processes that drive atmosphere-ocean carbon fluxes and changes in the oxygen minimum zones (OMZs). The simulated global mean ocean temperature is characterized by a mid-Holocene cooling and a late Holocene warming, a common feature among Holocene climate simulations which, however, contradicts a proxy-derived mid-Holocene climate optimum. As the most significant result, and only in the non-accelerated simulation, we find a substantial increase in volume of the OMZ in the eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP) continuing into the late Holocene. The concurrent increase in apparent oxygen utilization (AOU) and age of the water mass within the EEP OMZ can be attributed to a weakening of the deep northward inflow into the Pacific. This results in a large-scale mid-to-late Holocene increase in AOU in most of the Pacific and hence the source regions of the EEP OMZ waters. The simulated expansion of the EEP OMZ raises the question of whether the deoxygenation that has been observed over the last 5 decades could be a - perhaps accelerated - continuation of an orbitally driven decline in oxygen. Changes in global mean biological production and export of detritus remain of the order of 10 %, with generally lower values in the mid-Holocene. The simulated atmosphere-ocean CO2 flux would result in atmospheric pCO2 changes of similar magnitudes to those observed for the Holocene, but with different timing. More technically, as the increase in EEP OMZ volume can only be simulated with the non-accelerated model simulation, non-accelerated model simulations are required for an analysis of the marine biogeochemistry in the Holocene. Notably, the long control experiment also displays similar magnitude variability to the transient experiment for some parameters. This indicates that also long control runs are required when investigating Holocene climate and marine biogeochemistry, and that some of the Holocene variations could be attributed to internal variability of the atmosphere-ocean system.

Climate change: Wilderness's greatest challenge

Treesearch

Nathan L. Stephenson; Constance I. Millar

2012-01-01

Anthropogenic climatic change can no longer be considered an abstract possibility. It is here, its effects are already evident, and changes are expected to accelerate in coming decades, profoundly altering wilderness ecosystems. At the most fundamental level, wilderness stewards will increasingly be confronted with a trade-off between untrammeled wilderness character...

Climate change: Wilderness's greatest challenge

Treesearch

Nathan L. Stephenson; Connie Millar

2014-01-01

Anthropogenic climatic change can no longer be considered an abstract possibility. It is here, its effects are already evident, and changes are expected to accelerate in coming decades, profoundly altering wilderness ecosystems. At the most fundamental level, wilderness stewards will increasingly be confronted with a trade-off between untrammeled wilderness character...

Climate change and disaster management.

PubMed

O'Brien, Geoff; O'Keefe, Phil; Rose, Joanne; Wisner, Ben

2006-03-01

Climate change, although a natural phenomenon, is accelerated by human activities. Disaster policy response to climate change is dependent on a number of factors, such as readiness to accept the reality of climate change, institutions and capacity, as well as willingness to embed climate change risk assessment and management in development strategies. These conditions do not yet exist universally. A focus that neglects to enhance capacity-building and resilience as a prerequisite for managing climate change risks will, in all likelihood, do little to reduce vulnerability to those risks. Reducing vulnerability is a key aspect of reducing climate change risk. To do so requires a new approach to climate change risk and a change in institutional structures and relationships. A focus on development that neglects to enhance governance and resilience as a prerequisite for managing climate change risks will, in all likelihood, do little to reduce vulnerability to those risks.

Implications of climate change on wind erosion of agricultural lands in the Columbia Plateau

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Climate change may impact soil health and productivity as a result of accelerated or decelerated rates of erosion. Previous studies suggest a greater risk of wind erosion on arid and semi-arid lands due to loss of biomass under a future warmer climate. There have been no studies conducted to assess ...

India's National Action Plan on Climate Change.

PubMed

Pandve, Harshal T

2009-04-01

Climate change is one of the most critical global challenges of our times. Recent events have emphatically demonstrated our growing vulnerability to climate change. Climate change impacts will range from affecting agriculture - further endangering food security - to sea-level rise and the accelerated erosion of coastal zones, increasing intensity of natural disasters, species extinction, and the spread of vector-borne diseases. India released its much-awaited National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) to mitigate and adapt to climate change on June 30, 2008, almost a year after it was announced. The NAPCC runs through 2017 and directs ministries to submit detailed implementation plans to the Prime Minister's Council on Climate Change by December 2008. This article briefly reviews the plan and opinion about it from different experts and organizations.

Synchronous volcanic eruptions and abrupt climate change ∼17.7 ka plausibly linked by stratospheric ozone depletion

PubMed Central

McConnell, Joseph R.; Burke, Andrea; Dunbar, Nelia W.; Köhler, Peter; Thomas, Jennie L.; Chellman, Nathan J.; Maselli, Olivia J.; Sigl, Michael; Adkins, Jess F.; Baggenstos, Daniel; Burkhart, John F.; Brook, Edward J.; Buizert, Christo; Cole-Dai, Jihong; Fudge, T. J.; Knorr, Gregor; Graf, Hans-F.; Grieman, Mackenzie M.; Iverson, Nels; McGwire, Kenneth C.; Mulvaney, Robert; Paris, Guillaume; Rhodes, Rachael H.; Saltzman, Eric S.; Steffensen, Jørgen Peder; Taylor, Kendrick C.; Winckler, Gisela

2017-01-01

Glacial-state greenhouse gas concentrations and Southern Hemisphere climate conditions persisted until ∼17.7 ka, when a nearly synchronous acceleration in deglaciation was recorded in paleoclimate proxies in large parts of the Southern Hemisphere, with many changes ascribed to a sudden poleward shift in the Southern Hemisphere westerlies and subsequent climate impacts. We used high-resolution chemical measurements in the West Antarctic Ice Sheet Divide, Byrd, and other ice cores to document a unique, ∼192-y series of halogen-rich volcanic eruptions exactly at the start of accelerated deglaciation, with tephra identifying the nearby Mount Takahe volcano as the source. Extensive fallout from these massive eruptions has been found >2,800 km from Mount Takahe. Sulfur isotope anomalies and marked decreases in ice core bromine consistent with increased surface UV radiation indicate that the eruptions led to stratospheric ozone depletion. Rather than a highly improbable coincidence, circulation and climate changes extending from the Antarctic Peninsula to the subtropics—similar to those associated with modern stratospheric ozone depletion over Antarctica—plausibly link the Mount Takahe eruptions to the onset of accelerated Southern Hemisphere deglaciation ∼17.7 ka. PMID:28874529

Synchronous volcanic eruptions and abrupt climate change ∼17.7 ka plausibly linked by stratospheric ozone depletion.

PubMed

McConnell, Joseph R; Burke, Andrea; Dunbar, Nelia W; Köhler, Peter; Thomas, Jennie L; Arienzo, Monica M; Chellman, Nathan J; Maselli, Olivia J; Sigl, Michael; Adkins, Jess F; Baggenstos, Daniel; Burkhart, John F; Brook, Edward J; Buizert, Christo; Cole-Dai, Jihong; Fudge, T J; Knorr, Gregor; Graf, Hans-F; Grieman, Mackenzie M; Iverson, Nels; McGwire, Kenneth C; Mulvaney, Robert; Paris, Guillaume; Rhodes, Rachael H; Saltzman, Eric S; Severinghaus, Jeffrey P; Steffensen, Jørgen Peder; Taylor, Kendrick C; Winckler, Gisela

2017-09-19

Glacial-state greenhouse gas concentrations and Southern Hemisphere climate conditions persisted until ∼17.7 ka, when a nearly synchronous acceleration in deglaciation was recorded in paleoclimate proxies in large parts of the Southern Hemisphere, with many changes ascribed to a sudden poleward shift in the Southern Hemisphere westerlies and subsequent climate impacts. We used high-resolution chemical measurements in the West Antarctic Ice Sheet Divide, Byrd, and other ice cores to document a unique, ∼192-y series of halogen-rich volcanic eruptions exactly at the start of accelerated deglaciation, with tephra identifying the nearby Mount Takahe volcano as the source. Extensive fallout from these massive eruptions has been found >2,800 km from Mount Takahe. Sulfur isotope anomalies and marked decreases in ice core bromine consistent with increased surface UV radiation indicate that the eruptions led to stratospheric ozone depletion. Rather than a highly improbable coincidence, circulation and climate changes extending from the Antarctic Peninsula to the subtropics-similar to those associated with modern stratospheric ozone depletion over Antarctica-plausibly link the Mount Takahe eruptions to the onset of accelerated Southern Hemisphere deglaciation ∼17.7 ka.

The changes of the forests dendroproduction in the Carpathian basin - case study: Quercus petraea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berki, Imre; Gulyás, Krisztina; Veperdi, Gábor

2017-04-01

There are a lot of publications about the accelerated forest growth in West-and North- Europe due to global climate change, elevated atmospheric carbon-dioxide and nitrogen input. However, in Central-Europe the increasing tendency of extremely dry periods caused mass mortality of forest formed tree species, and triggered slower or indefinite growth trends. In this study our scientific questions were the followings: • Which are the characteristic mechanism in the south-east part of Central -Europe: forest decay, accelerated growth or both? • What are the expected impacts of climate change on sessile oak production? • Are there any differences between a humid and an arid landscapes tree height growth? Method for measuring the changes of growth in humid landscapes: Top height of the stands is a good indicator of the site condition with high stand density. So this indicator can be used to measure the changes of growth in humid stands, where the drought periods caused not considerable tree decay. We have been measured a young and old sessile oak stands next to each other along a humid-arid climatic transect in Hungary. The old stands representing the "pre-climate change" conditions, when the annual temperature means, and the frequency of droughts were lower. The young stands have been lived their whole lifetime in changed atmospheric condition. Compared the top height of the young and old stand to the yield tables we can establish a soft accelerated growth in the last decades in the humid landscapes. Method for measuring the changes of growth in dry landscapes: Top height of thinned forests due to tree decay do not indicate the changed atmospheric condition. Although the volume of the survived trees has been increased (compared to yield tables) due to accelerated diameter growth, the production of the thinned Quercus petraea forests have been decreased. Keywords: tree height growth, nitrogen input, humid-arid climatic transect Acknowledgements: Research is supported by the ÚNKP-16-3-3 New National Excellence Program of the Ministry of Human Capacities and the "Agroclimate.2" (VKSZ_12-1-2013-0034) EU-national joint funded projects.

A crisis in the making: responses of Amazonian forests to land use and climate change.

PubMed

Laurance, W F

1998-10-01

At least three global-change phenomena are having major impacts on Amazonian forests: (1) accelerating deforestation and logging; (2) rapidly changing patterns of forest loss; and (3) interactions between human land-use and climatic variability. Additional alterations caused by climatic change, rising concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide, mining, overhunting and other large-scale phenomena could also have important effects on the Amazon ecosystem. Consequently, decisions regarding Amazon forest use in the next decade are crucial to its future existence.

Changing Climate Drives Lagging and Accelerating Glacier Responses and Accelerating Adjustments of the Hazard Regime

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kargel, Jeffrey

2013-04-01

It is virtually universally recognized among climate and cryospheric scientists that climate and greenhouse gas abundances are closely correlated. Disagreements mainly pertain to the fundamental triggers for large fluctuations in climate and greenhouse gases during the pre-industrial era, and exactly how coupling is achieved amongst the dynamic solid Earth, the Sun, orbital and rotational dynamics, greenhouse gas abundances, and climate. Also unsettled is the climate sensitivity defined as the absolute linkage between the magnitude of climate warming/cooling and greenhouse gas increase/decrease. Important questions concern lagging responses (either greenhouse gases lagging climate fluctuations, or vice versa) and the causes of the lags. In terms of glacier and ice sheet responses to climate change, there also exist several processes causing lagging responses to climate change inputs. The simplest parameterization giving a glacier's lagging response time, τ, is that given by Jóhanneson et al. (1989), modified slightly here as τ = b/h, where b is a measure of ablation rate and h is a measure of glacier thickness. The exact definitions of τ, b, and h are subject to some interpretive license, but for a back-of-the-envelope approximation, we may take b as the magnitude of the mean ablation rate over the whole ablation area, and h as the mean glacier thickness in the glacier ablation zone. τ remains a bit ambiguous but may be considered as an exponential time scale for a decreasing response of b to a climatic step change. For some climate changes, b and h can be taken as the values prior to the climate change, but for large climatic shifts, this parameterization must be iterated. The actual response of a glacier at any time is the sum of exponentially decreasing responses from past changes. (Several aspects of glacier dynamics cause various glacier responses to differ from this idealized glacier-response theory.) Some important details relating to the retreat (or advances) of glaciers due to historic and future anthropogenic and longer term climate change relate to a changing glacier hazard regime. Climate change is connected to changes in the geographic distribution and magnitudes of potentially hazardous glacier lakes, large rock and ice avalanches, ice-dammed rivers, and surges. I shall consider these changes in hazard environment in relation to response-time theory and dynamical divergences from idealized response-time theory. Case histories of certain hazard-prone regions, including developments in fast-response-type glaciers and slow-response glaciers and ice sheets will also be discussed. In short, there will be a strong tendency of the hazard regimes of glacierized regions to shift far more rapidly in the 21st century than they did in the 20th century. The magnitude of the shifts will be more dramatic than any simple linear scaling to climate warming would suggest; this is largely because, due to lagging responses, glaciers are still trying to catch up to a new equilibrium for 20th century climate, while climate change remains a moving target that will drive accelerating glacier responses (including responses in hazard environments) in most glacierized regions.

Are Madrean ecosystems approaching tipping points? Anticipating interactions of landscape disturbance and climate change

Treesearch

Donald A. Falk

2013-01-01

Contemporary climate change is driving transitions in many Madrean ecosystems, but the time scale of these changes is accelerated greatly by severe landscape disturbances such as wildfires and insect outbreaks. Landscape-scale disturbance events such as wildfires interact with prior disturbance patterns and landscape structure to catalyze abrupt transitions to novel...

Long-term shifts in the phenology of rare and endemic Rocky Mountain plants.

PubMed

Munson, Seth M; Sher, Anna A

2015-08-01

• Mountainous regions support high plant productivity, diversity, and endemism, yet are highly vulnerable to climate change. Historical records and model predictions show increasing temperatures across high elevation regions including the Southern Rocky Mountains, which can have a strong influence on the performance and distribution of montane plant species. Rare plant species can be particularly vulnerable to climate change because of their limited abundance and distribution.• We tracked the phenology of rare and endemic species, which are identified as imperiled, across three different habitat types with herbarium records to determine if flowering time has changed over the last century, and if phenological change was related to shifts in climate.• We found that the flowering date of rare species has accelerated 3.1 d every decade (42 d total) since the late 1800s, with plants in sagebrush interbasins showing the strongest accelerations in phenology. High winter temperatures were associated with the acceleration of phenology in low elevation sagebrush and barren river habitats, whereas high spring temperatures explained accelerated phenology in the high elevation alpine habitat. In contrast, high spring temperatures delayed the phenology of plant species in the two low-elevation habitats and precipitation had mixed effects depending on the season.• These results provide evidence for large shifts in the phenology of rare Rocky Mountain plants related to climate, which can have strong effects on plant fitness, the abundance of associated wildlife, and the future of plant conservation in mountainous regions. © 2015 Botanical Society of America, Inc.

Speed Kills, Speed Thrills: Constraining and Enabling Accelerations in Academic Work-Life

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vostal, Filip

2015-01-01

Intensification, speed of change and faster pace of life have recently emerged as significant issues in studies analysing the current academic climate. This article takes up the "social acceleration thesis" as a conceptual resource for capturing the relationship between the individual experience of time and the changing structure and…

Global assessment of experimental climate warming on tundra vegetation: heterogeneity over space and time

Treesearch

Sarah C. Elmendorf; Gregory H.R. Henry; Robert D. Hollister; Robert G. Björk; Anne D. Bjorkman; Terry V. Callaghan; [and others] NO-VALUE; William Gould; Joel Mercado

2012-01-01

Understanding the sensitivity of tundra vegetation to climate warming is critical to forecasting future biodiversity and vegetation feedbacks to climate. In situ warming experiments accelerate climate change on a small scale to forecast responses of local plant communities. Limitations of this approach include the apparent site-specificity of results and uncertainty...

Using the storm water management model to predict urban headwater stream hydrological response to climate and land cover change

Treesearch

J.Y. Wu; J.R. Thompson; R.K. Kolka; K.J. Franz; T.W. Stewart

2013-01-01

Streams are natural features in urban landscapes that can provide ecosystem services for urban residents. However, urban streams are under increasing pressure caused by multiple anthropogenic impacts, including increases in human population and associated impervious surface area, and accelerated climate change. The ability to anticipate these changes and better...

Tropical forests and the changing earth system.

PubMed

Lewis, Simon L

2006-01-29

Tropical forests are global epicentres of biodiversity and important modulators of the rate of climate change. Recent research on deforestation rates and ecological changes within intact forests, both areas of recent research and debate, are reviewed, and the implications for biodiversity (species loss) and climate change (via the global carbon cycle) addressed. Recent impacts have most likely been: (i) a large source of carbon to the atmosphere, and major loss of species, from deforestation and (ii) a large carbon sink within remaining intact forest, accompanied by accelerating forest dynamism and widespread biodiversity changes. Finally, I look to the future, suggesting that the current carbon sink in intact forests is unlikely to continue, and that the tropical forest biome may even become a large net source of carbon, via one or more of four plausible routes: changing photosynthesis and respiration rates, biodiversity changes in intact forest, widespread forest collapse via drought, and widespread forest collapse via fire. Each of these scenarios risks potentially dangerous positive feedbacks with the climate system that could dramatically accelerate and intensify climate change. Given that continued land-use change alone is already thought to be causing the sixth mass extinction event in Earth's history, should such feedbacks occur, the resulting biodiversity and societal consequences would be even more severe.

Where does the carbon go?–Plant carbon allocation under climate change

DOE PAGES

Sevanto, Sanna; Dickman, L. Turin

2015-06-01

The ability of terrestrial vegetation to both take up and release carbon and water makes understanding climate change effects on plant function critical. These effects could alter the impacts and feedbacks of vegetation on climate and either slow down or accelerate climatic warming (Bonan 2008). In conclusion, studies on plant responses to increased atmospheric CO 2 concentration and elevated temperatures have become abundant in the last 20 years (for reviews, see Way and Oren 2010, Franks et al. 2013).

40 CFR 86.230-11 - Test sequence: general requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... vehicle interior climate control system shall be operated with the interior heating system on and the air... changes (e.g., engine-off logic, idle speed operation, spark advance changes) and engine control features...) Prior to the first acceleration of the test at T=20 seconds the climate control settings shall be set as...

40 CFR 86.230-11 - Test sequence: general requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... vehicle interior climate control system shall be operated with the interior heating system on and the air... changes (e.g., engine-off logic, idle speed operation, spark advance changes) and engine control features...) Prior to the first acceleration of the test at T=20 seconds the climate control settings shall be set as...

40 CFR 86.230-11 - Test sequence: general requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... vehicle interior climate control system shall be operated with the interior heating system on and the air... changes (e.g., engine-off logic, idle speed operation, spark advance changes) and engine control features...) Prior to the first acceleration of the test at T=20 seconds the climate control settings shall be set as...

40 CFR 86.230-11 - Test sequence: general requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... vehicle interior climate control system shall be operated with the interior heating system on and the air... changes (e.g., engine-off logic, idle speed operation, spark advance changes) and engine control features...) Prior to the first acceleration of the test at T=20 seconds the climate control settings shall be set as...

Ecological constraints increase the climatic debt in forests

PubMed Central

Bertrand, Romain; Riofrío-Dillon, Gabriela; Lenoir, Jonathan; Drapier, Jacques; de Ruffray, Patrice; Gégout, Jean-Claude; Loreau, Michel

2016-01-01

Biodiversity changes are lagging behind current climate warming. The underlying determinants of this climatic debt are unknown and yet critical to understand the impacts of climate change on the present biota and improve forecasts of biodiversity changes. Here we assess determinants of climatic debt accumulated in French forest herbaceous plant communities between 1987 and 2008 (that is, a 1.05 °C mean difference between the observed and bioindicated temperatures). We show that warmer baseline conditions predispose plant communities to larger climatic debts, and that climate warming exacerbates this response. Forest plant communities, however, are absorbing part of the temperature increase mainly through the species' ability to tolerate changing climate. As climate warming is expected to accelerate during the twenty-first century, plant migration and tolerance to climatic stresses probably will be insufficient to absorb this impact posing threats to the sustainability of forest plant communities. PMID:27561410

Ecological constraints increase the climatic debt in forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bertrand, Romain; Riofrío-Dillon, Gabriela; Lenoir, Jonathan; Drapier, Jacques; de Ruffray, Patrice; Gégout, Jean-Claude; Loreau, Michel

2016-08-01

Biodiversity changes are lagging behind current climate warming. The underlying determinants of this climatic debt are unknown and yet critical to understand the impacts of climate change on the present biota and improve forecasts of biodiversity changes. Here we assess determinants of climatic debt accumulated in French forest herbaceous plant communities between 1987 and 2008 (that is, a 1.05 °C mean difference between the observed and bioindicated temperatures). We show that warmer baseline conditions predispose plant communities to larger climatic debts, and that climate warming exacerbates this response. Forest plant communities, however, are absorbing part of the temperature increase mainly through the species' ability to tolerate changing climate. As climate warming is expected to accelerate during the twenty-first century, plant migration and tolerance to climatic stresses probably will be insufficient to absorb this impact posing threats to the sustainability of forest plant communities.

Climate change and mental health: risks, impacts and priority actions.

PubMed

Hayes, Katie; Blashki, G; Wiseman, J; Burke, S; Reifels, L

2018-01-01

This article provides an overview of the current and projected climate change risks and impacts to mental health and provides recommendations for priority actions to address the mental health consequences of climate change. The authors argue the following three points: firstly, while attribution of mental health outcomes to specific climate change risks remains challenging, there are a number of opportunities available to advance the field of mental health and climate change with more empirical research in this domain; secondly, the risks and impacts of climate change on mental health are already rapidly accelerating, resulting in a number of direct, indirect, and overarching effects that disproportionally affect those who are most marginalized; and, thirdly, interventions to address climate change and mental health need to be coordinated and rooted in active hope in order to tackle the problem in a holistic manner. This discussion paper concludes with recommendations for priority actions to address the mental health consequences of climate change.

U.S. Climate Change Science Program. Vision for the Program and Highlights of the Scientific Strategic Plan

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2003-01-01

The vision document provides an overview of the Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) long-term strategic plan to enhance scientific understanding of global climate change.This document is a companion to the comprehensive Strategic Plan for the Climate Change Science Program. The report responds to the Presidents direction that climate change research activities be accelerated to provide the best possible scientific information to support public discussion and decisionmaking on climate-related issues.The plan also responds to Section 104 of the Global Change Research Act of 1990, which mandates the development and periodic updating of a long-term national global change research plan coordinated through the National Science and Technology Council.This is the first comprehensive update of a strategic plan for U.S. global change and climate change research since the origal plan for the U.S. Global Change Research Program was adopted at the inception of the program in 1989.

Regional warming of hot extremes accelerated by surface energy fluxes consistent with drying soils

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donat, M.; Pitman, A.; Seneviratne, S. I.

2017-12-01

Strong regional differences exist in how hot temperature extremes increase under global warming. Using an ensemble of coupled climate models, we examine the regional warming rates of hot extremes relative to annual average warming rates in the same regions. We identify hotspots of accelerated warming of model-simulated hot extremes in Europe, North America, South America and Southeast China. These hotspots indicate where the warm tail of a distribution of temperatures increases faster than the average and are robust across most CMIP5 models. Exploring the conditions on the specific day the hot extreme occurs demonstrates the hotspots are explained by changes in the surface energy fluxes consistent with drying soils. Furthermore, in these hotspot regions we find a relationship between the temperature - heat flux correlation under current climate conditions and the magnitude of future projected changes in hot extremes, pointing to a potential emergent constraint for simulations of future hot extremes. However, the model-simulated accelerated warming of hot extremes appears inconsistent with observations of the past 60 years, except over Europe. The simulated acceleration of hot extremes may therefore be unreliable, a result that necessitates a re-evaluation of how climate models resolve the relevant terrestrial processes.

Emerging Methane Sources: A Bang or Whimper? (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harriss, R. C.

2013-12-01

In this presentation we examine two emerging methane emission sources that may further accelerate climate change in the 21st century: 1) Will fugitive methane emissions associated with the development of unconventional natural gas resources pose a significant threat of accelerating climate change? 2) Will continued warming of Arctic regions destabilize permafrost and methane hydrates rapidly increasing global atmospheric methane that results in a catastrophic climate change emergency? These risks are currently described in two different guises, with unconventional gas as persistent and gradually unfolding threat and Arctic rapid warming and release of methane as a low-probability event that could in an instant change everything. Current research is far from answering the question of whether these emerging methane sources will lead to a climate change bang or whimper. Both issues reflect the need to understand complex environmental and engineered systems as they interact with social and economic forces. While the evolution of energy systems favors methane as a contemporary transition fuel, researchers and practitioners need to address the fugitive methane leakage, reliability, and safety of natural gas systems. The concept of a methane bridge as a viable direction to decarbonization is appealing; it's just not as big or fast a step as many scientists want.

Climate Change Impact Uncertainties for Maize in Panama: Farm Information, Climate Projections, and Yield Sensitivities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ruane, Alex C.; Cecil, L. Dewayne; Horton, Radley M.; Gordon, Roman; McCollum, Raymond (Brown, Douglas); Brown, Douglas; Killough, Brian; Goldberg, Richard; Greeley, Adam P.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia

2011-01-01

We present results from a pilot project to characterize and bound multi-disciplinary uncertainties around the assessment of maize (Zea mays) production impacts using the CERES-Maize crop model in a climate-sensitive region with a variety of farming systems (Panama). Segunda coa (autumn) maize yield in Panama currently suffers occasionally from high water stress at the end of the growing season, however under future climate conditions warmer temperatures accelerate crop maturation and elevated CO (sub 2) concentrations improve water retention. This combination reduces end-of-season water stresses and eventually leads to small mean yield gains according to median projections, although accelerated maturation reduces yields in seasons with low water stresses. Calibrations of cultivar traits, soil profile, and fertilizer amounts are most important for representing baseline yields, however sensitivity to all management factors is reduced in an assessment of future yield changes (most dramatically for fertilizers), suggesting that yield changes may be more generalizable than absolute yields. Uncertainty around General Circulation Model (GCM)s' projected changes in rainfall gain in importance throughout the century, with yield changes strongly correlated with growing season rainfall totals. Climate changes are expected to be obscured by the large inter-annual variations in Panamanian climate that will continue to be the dominant influence on seasonal maize yield into the coming decades. The relatively high (A2) and low (B1) emissions scenarios show little difference in their impact on future maize yields until the end of the century. Uncertainties related to the sensitivity of CERES-Maize to carbon dioxide concentrations have a substantial influence on projected changes, and remain a significant obstacle to climate change impacts assessment. Finally, an investigation into the potential of simple statistical yield emulators based upon key climate variables characterizes the important uncertainties behind the selection of climate change metrics and their performance against more complex process-based crop model simulations, revealing a danger in relying only on long-term mean quantities for crop impact assessment.

Aiding cities in their work on climate change adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamilton, P.

2013-12-01

Urban areas around the world are at the frontlines of climate change because of their enormous aggregate populations and because of their vulnerability to multiple climate change stressors. Half of our planet's 7.1 billion inhabitants currently reside in cities with six billion people projected to call cities home by 2050. In the U.S. and much of the rest of the world, cities are warming at twice the rate of the planet. Superimposed on urban climate changes driven by global warming are the regional effects of urban heat domes driven by large differences in land use, building materials, and vegetation between cities and their rural surroundings. In megacities - those with populations exceeding 10 million people - such as Tokyo - urban heat domes can contribute to daytime temperatures that soar to more than 11°C higher than their rural surroundings. In addition, the localized warming can alter patterns of precipitation in metropolitan regions and perhaps even influence the frequency and severity of severe weather. Municipal officials need to accelerate their efforts to prepare and implement climate change adaptation strategies but what are the institutions that can help enable this work? Informal science education centers can play vital roles because they are overwhelmingly in urban settings and because they can act as ';competent outsiders.' They are neither responsible for conducting climate change research nor accountable for implementing public policies to address climate change. They instead can play an essential role of ensuring that solid science informs the formulation of good practices and policies. It is incumbent, therefore, for informal science education centers to accelerate and enhance their abilities to help translate scientific insights into on-the-ground actions. This session will explore the potential roles of informal science education centers to advance climate change adaptation through a review of the urban climate change education initiatives for municipal officials that the Science Museum of Minnesota has implemented over the past two years.

Climate Change: From Science to Practice.

PubMed

Wheeler, Nicola; Watts, Nick

2018-03-01

Climate change poses a significant threat to human health. Understanding how climate science can be translated into public health practice is an essential first step in enabling robust adaptation and improving resiliency to climate change. Recent research highlights the importance of iterative approaches to public health adaptation to climate change, enabling uncertainties of health impacts and barriers to adaptation to be accounted for. There are still significant barriers to adaptation, which are context-specific and thus present unique challenges to public health practice. The implementation of flexible adaptation approaches, using frameworks targeted for public health, is key to ensuring robust adaptation to climate change in public health practice. The BRACE framework provides an excellent approach for health adaptation to climate change. Combining this with the insights provided and by the adaptation pathways approach allows for more deliberate accounting of long-term uncertainties. The mainstreaming of climate change adaptation into public health practice and planning is important in facilitating this approach and overcoming the significant barriers to effective adaptation. Yet, the immediate and future limits to adaptation provide clear justification for urgent and accelerated efforts to mitigate climate change.

Biodiversity redistribution under climate change: Impacts on ecosystems and human well-being.

PubMed

Pecl, Gretta T; Araújo, Miguel B; Bell, Johann D; Blanchard, Julia; Bonebrake, Timothy C; Chen, I-Ching; Clark, Timothy D; Colwell, Robert K; Danielsen, Finn; Evengård, Birgitta; Falconi, Lorena; Ferrier, Simon; Frusher, Stewart; Garcia, Raquel A; Griffis, Roger B; Hobday, Alistair J; Janion-Scheepers, Charlene; Jarzyna, Marta A; Jennings, Sarah; Lenoir, Jonathan; Linnetved, Hlif I; Martin, Victoria Y; McCormack, Phillipa C; McDonald, Jan; Mitchell, Nicola J; Mustonen, Tero; Pandolfi, John M; Pettorelli, Nathalie; Popova, Ekaterina; Robinson, Sharon A; Scheffers, Brett R; Shaw, Justine D; Sorte, Cascade J B; Strugnell, Jan M; Sunday, Jennifer M; Tuanmu, Mao-Ning; Vergés, Adriana; Villanueva, Cecilia; Wernberg, Thomas; Wapstra, Erik; Williams, Stephen E

2017-03-31

Distributions of Earth's species are changing at accelerating rates, increasingly driven by human-mediated climate change. Such changes are already altering the composition of ecological communities, but beyond conservation of natural systems, how and why does this matter? We review evidence that climate-driven species redistribution at regional to global scales affects ecosystem functioning, human well-being, and the dynamics of climate change itself. Production of natural resources required for food security, patterns of disease transmission, and processes of carbon sequestration are all altered by changes in species distribution. Consideration of these effects of biodiversity redistribution is critical yet lacking in most mitigation and adaptation strategies, including the United Nation's Sustainable Development Goals. Copyright © 2017, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Acceleration in U.S. Mean Sea Level? A New Insight using Improved Tools

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watson, Phil J.

2016-08-01

The detection of acceleration in mean sea level around the data-rich margins of the United States has been a keen endeavour of sea-level researchers following the seminal work of Bruce Douglas in 1992. Over the past decade, such investigations have taken on greater prominence given mean sea level remains a key proxy by which to measure a changing climate system. The physics-based climate projection models are forecasting that the current global average rate of mean sea-level rise (≈3 mm/y) might climb to rates in the range of 10020 mm/y by 2100. Most research in this area has centred on reconciling current rates of rise with the significant accelerations required to meet the forecast projections of climate models. The analysis in this paper is based on a recently developed analytical package titled "msltrend," specifically designed to enhance estimates of trend, real-time velocity and acceleration in the relative mean sea-level signal derived from long annual average ocean-water-level time series. Key findings are that at the 95% confidence level, no consistent or substantial evidence (yet) exists that recent rates of rise are higher or abnormal in the context of the historical records available for the United States, nor does any evidence exist that geocentric rates of rise are above the global average. It is likely that a further 20 years of data will identify whether recent increases east of Galveston and along the east coast are evidence of the onset of climate change induced acceleration.

Understanding and managing trust at the climate science-policy interface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lacey, Justine; Howden, Mark; Cvitanovic, Christopher; Colvin, R. M.

2018-01-01

Climate change effects are accelerating, making the need for appropriate actions informed by sound climate knowledge ever more pressing. A strong climate science-policy relationship facilitates the effective integration of climate knowledge into local, national and global policy processes, increases society's responsiveness to a changing climate, and aligns research activity to policy needs. This complex science-policy relationship requires trust between climate science `producers' and `users', but our understanding of trust at this interface remains largely uncritical. To assist climate scientists and policymakers, this Perspective provides insights into how trust develops and operates at the interface of climate science and policy, and examines the extent to which trust can manage — or even create — risk at this interface.

Recent acceleration of biomass burning and carbon losses in Alaskan forests and peatlands

Treesearch

Merritt R. Turetsky; Evan S. Kane; Jennifer W. Harden; Roger D. Ottmar; Kristen L. Maines; Elizabeth Hoy; Eric S. Kasischke

2010-01-01

Climate change has increased the area affected by forest fires each year in boreal North America. Increases in burned area and fire frequency are expected to stimulate boreal carbon losses. However, the impact of wildfires on carbon emissions is also affected by the severity of burning. How climate change influences the severity of biomass burning has proved difficult...

Climate Change and Respiratory Infections.

PubMed

Mirsaeidi, Mehdi; Motahari, Hooman; Taghizadeh Khamesi, Mojdeh; Sharifi, Arash; Campos, Michael; Schraufnagel, Dean E

2016-08-01

The rate of global warming has accelerated over the past 50 years. Increasing surface temperature is melting glaciers and raising the sea level. More flooding, droughts, hurricanes, and heat waves are being reported. Accelerated changes in climate are already affecting human health, in part by altering the epidemiology of climate-sensitive pathogens. In particular, climate change may alter the incidence and severity of respiratory infections by affecting vectors and host immune responses. Certain respiratory infections, such as avian influenza and coccidioidomycosis, are occurring in locations previously unaffected, apparently because of global warming. Young children and older adults appear to be particularly vulnerable to rapid fluctuations in ambient temperature. For example, an increase in the incidence in childhood pneumonia in Australia has been associated with sharp temperature drops from one day to the next. Extreme weather events, such as heat waves, floods, major storms, drought, and wildfires, are also believed to change the incidence of respiratory infections. An outbreak of aspergillosis among Japanese survivors of the 2011 tsunami is one such well-documented example. Changes in temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, and air pollution influence viral activity and transmission. For example, in early 2000, an outbreak of Hantavirus respiratory disease was linked to a local increase in the rodent population, which in turn was attributed to a two- to threefold increase in rainfall before the outbreak. Climate-sensitive respiratory pathogens present challenges to respiratory health that may be far greater in the foreseeable future.

Is the detection of accelerated sea level rise imminent?

DOE PAGES

Fasullo, J. T.; Nerem, R. S.; Hamlington, B.

2016-08-10

Global mean sea level rise estimated from satellite altimetry provides a strong constraint on climate variability and change and is expected to accelerate as the rates of both ocean warming and cryospheric mass loss increase over time. In stark contrast to this expectation however, current altimeter products show the rate of sea level rise to have decreased from the first to second decades of the altimeter era. Here, a combined analysis of altimeter data and specially designed climate model simulations shows the 1991 eruption of Mt Pinatubo to likely have masked the acceleration that would have otherwise occurred. This maskingmore » arose largely from a recovery in ocean heat content through the mid to late 1990 s subsequent to major heat content reductions in the years following the eruption. As a result, a consequence of this finding is that barring another major volcanic eruption, a detectable acceleration is likely to emerge from the noise of internal climate variability in the coming decade.« less

Is the detection of accelerated sea level rise imminent?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fasullo, J. T.; Nerem, R. S.; Hamlington, B.

Global mean sea level rise estimated from satellite altimetry provides a strong constraint on climate variability and change and is expected to accelerate as the rates of both ocean warming and cryospheric mass loss increase over time. In stark contrast to this expectation however, current altimeter products show the rate of sea level rise to have decreased from the first to second decades of the altimeter era. Here, a combined analysis of altimeter data and specially designed climate model simulations shows the 1991 eruption of Mt Pinatubo to likely have masked the acceleration that would have otherwise occurred. This maskingmore » arose largely from a recovery in ocean heat content through the mid to late 1990 s subsequent to major heat content reductions in the years following the eruption. As a result, a consequence of this finding is that barring another major volcanic eruption, a detectable acceleration is likely to emerge from the noise of internal climate variability in the coming decade.« less

Climate-change effects on soils: Accelerated weathering, soil carbon and elemental cycling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Qafoku, Nikolla

2015-04-01

Climate change [i.e., high atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations (≥400 ppm); increasing air temperatures (2-4°C or greater); significant and/or abrupt changes in daily, seasonal, and inter-annual temperature; changes in the wet/dry cycles; intensive rainfall and/or heavy storms; extended periods of drought; extreme frost; heat waves and increased fire frequency] is and will significantly affect soil properties and fertility, water resources, food quantity and quality, and environmental quality. Biotic processes that consume atmospheric CO2, and create organic carbon (C) that is either reprocessed to CO2 or stored in soils are the subject of active current investigations, with great concern over themore » influence of climate change. In addition, abiotic C cycling and its influence on the inorganic C pool in soils is a fundamental global process in which acidic atmospheric CO2 participates in the weathering of carbonate and silicate minerals, ultimately delivering bicarbonate and Ca2+ or other cations that precipitate in the form of carbonates in soils or are transported to the rivers, lakes, and oceans. Soil responses to climate change will be complex, and there are many uncertainties and unresolved issues. The objective of the review is to initiate and further stimulate a discussion about some important and challenging aspects of climate-change effects on soils, such as accelerated weathering of soil minerals and resulting C and elemental fluxes in and out of soils, soil/geo-engineering methods used to increase C sequestration in soils, soil organic matter (SOM) protection, transformation and mineralization, and SOM temperature sensitivity. This review reports recent discoveries, identifies key research needs, and highlights opportunities offered by the climate-change effects on soils.« less

Continental drift and climate change drive instability in insect assemblages

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Fengqing; Tierno de Figueroa, José Manuel; Lek, Sovan; Park, Young-Seuk

2015-06-01

Global change has already had observable effects on ecosystems worldwide, and the accelerated rate of global change is predicted in the future. However, the impacts of global change on the stability of biodiversity have not been systematically studied in terms of both large spatial (continental drift) and temporal (from the last inter-glacial period to the next century) scales. Therefore, we analyzed the current geographical distribution pattern of Plecoptera, a thermally sensitive insect group, and evaluated its stability when coping with global change across both space and time throughout the Mediterranean region—one of the first 25 global biodiversity hotspots. Regional biodiversity of Plecoptera reflected the geography in both the historical movements of continents and the current environmental conditions in the western Mediterranean region. The similarity of Plecoptera assemblages between areas in this region indicated that the uplift of new land and continental drift were the primary determinants of the stability of regional biodiversity. Our results revealed that climate change caused the biodiversity of Plecoptera to slowly diminish in the past and will cause remarkably accelerated biodiversity loss in the future. These findings support the theory that climate change has had its greatest impact on biodiversity over a long temporal scale.

Continental drift and climate change drive instability in insect assemblages

PubMed Central

Li, Fengqing; Tierno de Figueroa, José Manuel; Lek, Sovan; Park, Young-Seuk

2015-01-01

Global change has already had observable effects on ecosystems worldwide, and the accelerated rate of global change is predicted in the future. However, the impacts of global change on the stability of biodiversity have not been systematically studied in terms of both large spatial (continental drift) and temporal (from the last inter-glacial period to the next century) scales. Therefore, we analyzed the current geographical distribution pattern of Plecoptera, a thermally sensitive insect group, and evaluated its stability when coping with global change across both space and time throughout the Mediterranean region—one of the first 25 global biodiversity hotspots. Regional biodiversity of Plecoptera reflected the geography in both the historical movements of continents and the current environmental conditions in the western Mediterranean region. The similarity of Plecoptera assemblages between areas in this region indicated that the uplift of new land and continental drift were the primary determinants of the stability of regional biodiversity. Our results revealed that climate change caused the biodiversity of Plecoptera to slowly diminish in the past and will cause remarkably accelerated biodiversity loss in the future. These findings support the theory that climate change has had its greatest impact on biodiversity over a long temporal scale. PMID:26081036

Continental drift and climate change drive instability in insect assemblages.

PubMed

Li, Fengqing; Tierno de Figueroa, José Manuel; Lek, Sovan; Park, Young-Seuk

2015-06-17

Global change has already had observable effects on ecosystems worldwide, and the accelerated rate of global change is predicted in the future. However, the impacts of global change on the stability of biodiversity have not been systematically studied in terms of both large spatial (continental drift) and temporal (from the last inter-glacial period to the next century) scales. Therefore, we analyzed the current geographical distribution pattern of Plecoptera, a thermally sensitive insect group, and evaluated its stability when coping with global change across both space and time throughout the Mediterranean region--one of the first 25 global biodiversity hotspots. Regional biodiversity of Plecoptera reflected the geography in both the historical movements of continents and the current environmental conditions in the western Mediterranean region. The similarity of Plecoptera assemblages between areas in this region indicated that the uplift of new land and continental drift were the primary determinants of the stability of regional biodiversity. Our results revealed that climate change caused the biodiversity of Plecoptera to slowly diminish in the past and will cause remarkably accelerated biodiversity loss in the future. These findings support the theory that climate change has had its greatest impact on biodiversity over a long temporal scale.

Hydroclimatic changes of Lake Bosten in Northwest China during the last decades.

PubMed

Yao, Junqiang; Chen, Yaning; Zhao, Yong; Yu, Xiaojing

2018-06-14

Bosten Lake, the largest inland freshwater lake in China, has experienced drastic change over the past five decades. Based on the lake water balance model and climate elasticity method, we identify annual changes in the lake's water components during 1961-2016 and investigate its water balance. We find a complex pattern in the lake's water: a decrease (1961-1987), a rapid increase (1988-2002), a drastic decrease (2003-2012), and a recent drastic increase (2013-2016). We also estimated the lake's water balance, finding that the drastic changes are caused by a climate-driven regime shift coupled with human disturbance. The changes in the lake accelerated after 1987, which may have been driven by regional climate wetting. During 2003 to 2012, implementation of the ecological water conveyance project (EWCP) significantly increased the lake's outflow, while a decreased precipitation led to an increased drought frequency. The glacier retreating trend accelerated by warming, and caused large variations in the observed lake's changes in recent years. Furthermore, wastewater emissions may give rise to water degradation, human activity is completely changing the natural water cycle system in the Bosten Lake. Indeed, the future of Bosten Lake is largely dependent on mankind.

Anthropogenic Climate Change in Asia: Key Challenges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramaswamy, V.

2009-12-01

The energy, agricultural, and water sectors in Asia, a vast continent that comprises more than half of the world's population, are crucially vulnerable to shifts in climate. The acceleration of economic development in Asia over the past few decades, the dependence of its huge agricultural economy on rainfall, and its growing energy demands have thrust climate change and its impacts squarely into important sectors of the Asian society. Further, it is likely that there has been significant anthropogenic warming over the past 50 years averaged over the Asian continent (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) [2007]; see Figure 1a). Asian megacities are already witnessing stresses in food, water, transportation, health, and air quality. The situation could become even worse with projected changes in temperature and rainfall in the 21st century, coupled with the likelihood that climate change will exacerbate extremes.

A multiscale climate emulator for long-term morphodynamics (MUSCLE-morpho)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Antolínez, José Antonio A.; Méndez, Fernando J.; Camus, Paula; Vitousek, Sean; González, E. Mauricio; Ruggiero, Peter; Barnard, Patrick

2016-01-01

Interest in understanding long-term coastal morphodynamics has recently increased as climate change impacts become perceptible and accelerated. Multiscale, behavior-oriented and process-based models, or hybrids of the two, are typically applied with deterministic approaches which require considerable computational effort. In order to reduce the computational cost of modeling large spatial and temporal scales, input reduction and morphological acceleration techniques have been developed. Here we introduce a general framework for reducing dimensionality of wave-driver inputs to morphodynamic models. The proposed framework seeks to account for dependencies with global atmospheric circulation fields and deals simultaneously with seasonality, interannual variability, long-term trends, and autocorrelation of wave height, wave period, and wave direction. The model is also able to reproduce future wave climate time series accounting for possible changes in the global climate system. An application of long-term shoreline evolution is presented by comparing the performance of the real and the simulated wave climate using a one-line model. This article was corrected on 2 FEB 2016. See the end of the full text for details.

Evolution of carbon sinks in a changing climate.

PubMed

Fung, Inez Y; Doney, Scott C; Lindsay, Keith; John, Jasmin

2005-08-09

Climate change is expected to influence the capacities of the land and oceans to act as repositories for anthropogenic CO2 and hence provide a feedback to climate change. A series of experiments with the National Center for Atmospheric Research-Climate System Model 1 coupled carbon-climate model shows that carbon sink strengths vary with the rate of fossil fuel emissions, so that carbon storage capacities of the land and oceans decrease and climate warming accelerates with faster CO2 emissions. Furthermore, there is a positive feedback between the carbon and climate systems, so that climate warming acts to increase the airborne fraction of anthropogenic CO2 and amplify the climate change itself. Globally, the amplification is small at the end of the 21st century in this model because of its low transient climate response and the near-cancellation between large regional changes in the hydrologic and ecosystem responses. Analysis of our results in the context of comparable models suggests that destabilization of the tropical land sink is qualitatively robust, although its degree is uncertain.

Evolution of carbon sinks in a changing climate

PubMed Central

Fung, Inez Y.; Doney, Scott C.; Lindsay, Keith; John, Jasmin

2005-01-01

Climate change is expected to influence the capacities of the land and oceans to act as repositories for anthropogenic CO2 and hence provide a feedback to climate change. A series of experiments with the National Center for Atmospheric Research–Climate System Model 1 coupled carbon–climate model shows that carbon sink strengths vary with the rate of fossil fuel emissions, so that carbon storage capacities of the land and oceans decrease and climate warming accelerates with faster CO2 emissions. Furthermore, there is a positive feedback between the carbon and climate systems, so that climate warming acts to increase the airborne fraction of anthropogenic CO2 and amplify the climate change itself. Globally, the amplification is small at the end of the 21st century in this model because of its low transient climate response and the near-cancellation between large regional changes in the hydrologic and ecosystem responses. Analysis of our results in the context of comparable models suggests that destabilization of the tropical land sink is qualitatively robust, although its degree is uncertain. PMID:16061800

Tree height growth indicating drought and nitrogen deposition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gulyás, Krisztina; Berki, Imre

2016-04-01

Several studies have been reported the increasing trends of forest growth in Europe in the last decades. Sites, where the water is not limiting factor, the increasing carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration and high nitrogen deposition influenced accelerated tree height growth. However few researches show that the drying climate conditions and water deficit cause slow/not definite trend of tree height growth in forests. The aim of our study presents the effects of drying climate and surplus nitrogen on height growth of sessile oak (Quercus petraea). Almost 50 sessile oak stands (with zonal site condition) have been measured along a humid-arid climatic transect in Hungary. Top heights of the trees are the best dendrometric parameter for indicating the changing site conditions. Observed top heights dates were compared with 50-years climate condition along the humid-arid climatic transect. Tree height growth in the dry and mesic section of climatic gradient slowed at the last 4 decades, because of the increasing frequency of dry periods. Accelerated height growth were measured in the mesic and humid section of transect, where the nitrogen deposition due to local air pollution were higher than the background deposition. These results draw attention to the importance of the drying climate and surplus nitrogen in the global changes. Keywords: climate change impacts, drought periods, surplus deposition, tree height growth Acknowledgements: Research is supported by the "Agroclimate.2" (VKSZ_12-1-2013-0034) EU-national joint funded research project.

Climate change, vector-borne diseases and working population.

PubMed

Vonesch, Nicoletta; D'Ovidio, Maria Concetta; Melis, Paola; Remoli, Maria Elena; Ciufolini, Maria Grazia; Tomao, Paola

2016-01-01

Risks associated with climate change are increasing worldwide and the global effects include altered weather and precipitation patterns, rising temperatures and others; human health can be affected directly and indirectly. This paper is an overview of literature regarding climate changes, their interaction with vector-borne diseases and impact on working population. Articles regarding climate changes as drivers of vector-borne diseases and evidences of occupational cases have been picked up by public databank. Technical documents were also included in the study. Evidences regarding the impact of climate changes on vector-borne diseases in Europe, provided by the analysis of the literature, are presented. Climate-sensitive vector-borne diseases are likely to be emerging due to climate modifications, with impacts on public and occupational health. However, other environmental and anthropogenic drivers such as increasing travelling and trade, deforestation and reforestation, altered land use and urbanization can influence their spread. Further studies are necessary to better understand the phenomenon and implementation of adaptation strategies to protect human health should be accelerated and strengthened.

Land use, climate, and water resources – global stages of interaction

EPA Science Inventory

Land use and climate change can accelerate the depletion of freshwater resources that support humans and ecosystem services on a global scale. Here, we briefly review studies from around the world, including those in this special issue. We identify stages, which characterize i...

What Influences Climate and Glacier Change in the Southwestern China?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yasunari, Teppei J.

2012-01-01

The subject of climate change in the areas of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and the Himalayas has taken on increasing importance because of available water resources from their mountain glaciers. Many of these glaciers over the region have been retreating, while some are advancing and stable. Other studies report that some glaciers in the Himalayas show acceleration on their shrinkage. However, the causes of the glacier meltings are still difficult to grasp because of the complexity of climatic change and its influence on glacier issues. However, it is vital that we pursue further study to enable the future prediction on glacier changes.

Global Warming in the 21st Century: An Alternate Scenario

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hansen, James E.

2000-01-01

Evidence on a broad range of time scales, from Proterozoic to the most recent periods, shows that the Earth's climate responds sensitively to global forcings. In the past few decades the Earth's surface has warmed rapidly, apparently in response to increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The conventional view is that the current global warming rate will continue or accelerate in the 21st century. I will describe an alternate scenario that would slow the rate of global warming and reduce the danger of dramatic climate change. But reliable prediction of future climate change requires improved knowledge of the carbon cycle and global observations that allow interpretation of ongoing climate change.

Invasive hybridization in a threatened species is accelerated by climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Kovach, Ryan P.; Jones, Leslie A.; Al-Chokhachy, Robert; Boyer, Matthew C.; Leary, Robb F.; Lowe, Winsor H.; Luikart, Gordon; Allendorf, Fred W.

2014-07-01

Climate change will decrease worldwide biodiversity through a number of potential pathways, including invasive hybridization (cross-breeding between invasive and native species). How climate warming influences the spread of hybridization and loss of native genomes poses difficult ecological and evolutionary questions with little empirical information to guide conservation management decisions. Here we combine long-term genetic monitoring data with high-resolution climate and stream temperature predictions to evaluate how recent climate warming has influenced the spatio-temporal spread of human-mediated hybridization between threatened native westslope cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii lewisi) and non-native rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss), the world's most widely introduced invasive fish. Despite widespread release of millions of rainbow trout over the past century within the Flathead River system, a large relatively pristine watershed in western North America, historical samples revealed that hybridization was prevalent only in one (source) population. During a subsequent 30-year period of accelerated warming, hybridization spread rapidly and was strongly linked to interactions between climatic drivers--precipitation and temperature--and distance to the source population. Specifically, decreases in spring precipitation and increases in summer stream temperature probably promoted upstream expansion of hybridization throughout the system. This study shows that rapid climate warming can exacerbate interactions between native and non-native species through invasive hybridization, which could spell genomic extinction for many species.

Applications of AMS {sup 14}C on Climate and Archaeology

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gomes, P. R. S.

2007-10-26

We describe the Accelerator Mass Spectrometry (AMS) technique and two distinct applications of its use with {sup 14}C to study environmental problems in Brazil, such as forest fires and climate changes in the Amazon region and archaeological studies on the early settlements in the Southeast Brazilian coast.

Initial response of the nitrogen cycle to soil warming in Northern Minnesota peatlands

EPA Science Inventory

Peatlands store 30% of global soil carbon. Many of these peatlands are located in boreal regions which are expected to have the highest temperature increases in response to climate change. As climate warms, peat decomposition may accelerate and release greenhouse gases. Spruce a...

A CLEAN Network Initiative - Accelerating Transition to Post Carbon and Resilient Communities through Education and Engagement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ledley, T. S.; Niepold, F., III; Bozuwa, J.; Davis, A.; Fraser, J.; Kretser, J.; Poppleton, K. L. I.; Qusba, L.; Ruggiero, K.; Spitzer, W.; Stylinski, C.

2016-12-01

The Climate Literacy and Energy Awareness Network (CLEAN) was formed in 2008 to help climate and energy literacy stakeholders implement the Climate and Energy Literacy Essential Principles to enable effective and responsible decisions with regard to actions that may affect climate. The ongoing conversations of the CLEAN Network have cultivated a culture of shared resources and expertise and allowed for the development of collective impact strategies. However, it has become clear that to accelerate and scale change, effective mitigation, adaptation, and resilience strategies must be developed by a diverse network of stakeholders at the community level to deal with the local impacts of climate change and move toward decarbonized and resilient economies. A group of CLEAN Network members, experienced in establishing effective networks and representing mature climate change education programs, came together to discuss at the community level 1) how we can collectively enable larger scale efforts to 2) develop effective strategies, 3) identify gaps in the system that limit action, and 4) coordinate possible vectors for interceding to advance community level decisions related to climate. We will describe our Theory of Change, based on both the power of communities and increasing climate literacy as a key requirement for sustained progress on the crisis climate change presents. From our Theory of Change, we have begun to outline a national monitoring strategy that can provide communities a measured way to understand their local readiness to respond to the impacts of climate change and understand the magnitude of those impacts in relation to their political and ecological economies. The scale would help describe the robustness of their programs and partnerships to address those impacts, the political climate for working in advance of pending change, and the degree of citizen engagement in resilience planning and action. The goal is to provide a common tool equivalent to GDP that communities could use to see their strengths and leverage points, and where they have the local resources to build solutions or co-develop solutions with others. Though this new tool, communities may be better able to focus on mitigation, adaptation, and the building of resilience that will put into practice the identified Theory of Change.

How will biotic interactions influence climate change-induced range shifts?

PubMed

HilleRisLambers, Janneke; Harsch, Melanie A; Ettinger, Ailene K; Ford, Kevin R; Theobald, Elinore J

2013-09-01

Biotic interactions present a challenge in determining whether species distributions will track climate change. Interactions with competitors, consumers, mutualists, and facilitators can strongly influence local species distributions, but few studies assess how and whether these interactions will impede or accelerate climate change-induced range shifts. In this paper, we explore how ecologists might move forward on this question. We first outline the conditions under which biotic interactions can result in range shifts that proceed faster or slower than climate velocity and result in ecological surprises. Next, we use our own work to demonstrate that experimental studies documenting the strength of biotic interactions across large environmental gradients are a critical first step for understanding whether they will influence climate change-induced range shifts. Further progress could be made by integrating results from these studies into modeling frameworks to predict how or generalize when biotic interactions mediate how changing climates influence range shifts. Finally, we argue that many more case studies like those described here are needed to explore the importance of biotic interactions during climate change-induced range shifts. © 2013 New York Academy of Sciences.

Near-term acceleration of hydroclimatic change in the western U.S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ashfaq, Moetasim; Ghosh, Subimal; Kao, Shih-Chieh; Bowling, Laura C.; Mote, Philip; Touma, Danielle; Rauscher, Sara A.; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.

2013-10-01

Given its large population, vigorous and water-intensive agricultural industry, and important ecological resources, the western United States presents a valuable case study for examining potential near-term changes in regional hydroclimate. Using a high-resolution, hierarchical, five-member ensemble modeling experiment that includes a global climate model (Community Climate System Model), a regional climate model (RegCM), and a hydrological model (Variable Infiltration Capacity model), we find that increases in greenhouse forcing over the next three decades result in an acceleration of decreases in spring snowpack and a transition to a substantially more liquid-dominated water resources regime. These hydroclimatic changes are associated with increases in cold-season days above freezing and decreases in the cold-season snow-to-precipitation ratio. The changes in the temperature and precipitation regime in turn result in shifts toward earlier snowmelt, base flow, and runoff dates throughout the region, as well as reduced annual and warm-season snowmelt and runoff. The simulated hydrologic response is dominated by changes in temperature, with the ensemble members exhibiting varying trends in cold-season precipitation over the next three decades but consistent negative trends in cold-season freeze days, cold-season snow-to-precipitation ratio, and 1 April snow water equivalent. Given the observed impacts of recent trends in snowpack and snowmelt runoff, the projected acceleration of hydroclimatic change in the western U.S. has important implications for the availability of water for agriculture, hydropower, and human consumption, as well as for the risk of wildfire, forest die-off, and loss of riparian habitat.

Can We Consume Our Way Out of Climate Change? A Call for Analysis

PubMed Central

Grant, Lyle K

2011-01-01

The problem of climate change is analyzed as a manifestation of economic growth, and the steady-state economy of ecological economics is proposed as a system-wide solution. Four classes of more specific solutions are described. In the absence of analysis, cultural inertia will bias solutions in favor of green consumption as a generalized solution strategy. By itself, green consumption is a flawed solution to climate change because it perpetuates or even accelerates economic growth that is incompatible with a sustainable culture. Addressing climate change requires an integration of regulatory, energy efficiency, skill-based, and dissemination solutions. Behavioral scientists are encouraged to work with others in ecological economics and other social sciences who recognize cultural reinvention as a means of achieving sustainability. PMID:22532747

The evolution of the Brewer-Dobson Circulation from 1960-2100 in simulations with the Chemistry Climate Model EMAC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oberländer, Sophie; Langematz, Ulrike; Kubin, Anne; Abalichin, Janna; Meul, Stefanie; Jöckel, Patrick; Brühl, Christoph

2010-05-01

First results of research performed within the new DFG Research Unit Stratospheric Change and its Role for Climate Prediction (SHARP) will be presented. SHARP investigates past and future changes in stratospheric dynamics and composition to improve the understanding of global climate change and the accuracy of climate change predictions. SHARP combines the efforts of eight German research institutes and expertise in state-of-the-art climate modelling and observations. Within the scope of the scientific sub-project SHARP-BDC (Brewer-Dobson-Circulation) the past and future evolution of the BDC in an atmosphere with changing composition will be analysed. Radiosonde data show an annual mean cooling of the tropical lower stratosphere over the past few decades (Thompson and Solomon, 2005). Several independent model simulations indicate an acceleration of the BDC due to higher greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations with direct impact on the exchange of air masses between the troposphere and stratosphere (e.g., Butchart et al, 2006). In contrast, from balloon-born measurements no significant acceleration in the BDC could be identified (Engel et al, 2008). This disagreement between observations and model analyses motivates further studies. For the future, expected changes in planetary wave generation and propagation in an atmosphere with increasing GHG concentrations are a major source of uncertainty for predicting future levels of stratospheric composition. To analyse and interpret the past and future evolution of the BDC, results from a transient multi-decadal simulation with the Chemistry-Climate Model (CCM) EMAC will be presented. The model has been integrated from 1960 to 2100 following the SCN2d scenario recommendations of the SPARC CCMVal initiative for the temporal evolution of GHGs, ozone depleting substances and sea surface temperatures as well as sea ice. The role of increasing GHG concentrations for the BDC will be assessed by comparing the SCN2d-results with a ‘non-climate change' (NCC) simulation, in which greenhouse gases have been kept fixed at their 1960 concentrations.

Researchers focus attention on coastal response to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, John; Rodriguez, Antonio; Fletcher, Charles; Fitzgerald, Duncan

The world's population has been steadily migrating toward coastal cities, resulting in severe stress on coastal environments. But the most severe human impact on coastal regions may lie ahead as the rate of global sea-level rise accelerates and the impacts of global warming on coastal climates and oceanographic dynamics increase [Varekamp and Thomas, 1998; Hinrichsen, 1999; Goodwin et al., 2000]. Little is currently being done to forecast the impact of global climate change on coasts during the next century and beyond. Indeed, there are still many politicians, and even some scientists, who doubt that global change is a real threat to society.

Initial Response of the Nitrogen Cycle to Soil Warming and Elevated CO2 in Northern Minnesota Peatlands

EPA Science Inventory

Peatlands store 30% of global soil carbon. Many of these peatlands are located in boreal regions which are expected to have the highest temperature increases in response to climate change. As climate warms, peat decomposition may accelerate and release greenhouse gases. Spruce an...

Mean-state acceleration of cloud-resolving models and large eddy simulations

DOE PAGES

Jones, C. R.; Bretherton, C. S.; Pritchard, M. S.

2015-10-29

In this study, large eddy simulations and cloud-resolving models (CRMs) are routinely used to simulate boundary layer and deep convective cloud processes, aid in the development of moist physical parameterization for global models, study cloud-climate feedbacks and cloud-aerosol interaction, and as the heart of superparameterized climate models. These models are computationally demanding, placing practical constraints on their use in these applications, especially for long, climate-relevant simulations. In many situations, the horizontal-mean atmospheric structure evolves slowly compared to the turnover time of the most energetic turbulent eddies. We develop a simple scheme to reduce this time scale separation to accelerate themore » evolution of the mean state. Using this approach we are able to accelerate the model evolution by a factor of 2–16 or more in idealized stratocumulus, shallow and deep cumulus convection without substantial loss of accuracy in simulating mean cloud statistics and their sensitivity to climate change perturbations. As a culminating test, we apply this technique to accelerate the embedded CRMs in the Superparameterized Community Atmosphere Model by a factor of 2, thereby showing that the method is robust and stable to realistic perturbations across spatial and temporal scales typical in a GCM.« less

The effect of changing wind forcing on Antarctic ice shelf melting in high-resolution, global sea ice-ocean simulations with the Accelerated Climate Model for Energy (ACME)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asay-Davis, Xylar; Price, Stephen; Petersen, Mark; Wolfe, Jonathan

2017-04-01

The capability for simulating sub-ice shelf circulation and submarine melting and freezing has recently been added to the U.S. Department of Energy's Accelerated Climate Model for Energy (ACME). With this new capability, we use an eddy permitting ocean model to conduct two sets of simulations in the spirit of Spence et al. (GRL, 41, 2014), who demonstrate increased warm water upwelling along the Antarctic coast in response to poleward shifting and strengthening of Southern Ocean westerly winds. These characteristics, symptomatic of a positive Southern Annular Mode (SAM), are projected to continue into the 21st century under anthropogenic climate change (Fyfe et al., J. Clim., 20, 2007). In our first simulation, we force the climate model using the standard CORE interannual forcing dataset (Large and Yeager; Clim. Dyn., 33, 2009). In our second simulation, we force our climate model using an altered version of CORE interannual forcing, based on the latter half of the full time series, which we take as a proxy for a future climate state biased towards a positive SAM. We compare ocean model states and sub-ice shelf melt rates with observations, exploring sources of model biases as well as the effects of the two forcing scenarios.

Human activities and climate variability drive fast-paced change across the world's estuarine-coastal ecosystems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cloern, James E.; Abreu, Paulo C.; Carstensen, Jacob; Chauvaud, Laurent; Elmgren, Ragnar; Grall, Jacques; Greening, Holly; Johansson, John O.R.; Kahru, Mati; Sherwood, Edward T.; Xu, Jie; Yin, Kedong

2016-01-01

Time series of environmental measurements are essential for detecting, measuring and understanding changes in the Earth system and its biological communities. Observational series have accumulated over the past 2–5 decades from measurements across the world's estuaries, bays, lagoons, inland seas and shelf waters influenced by runoff. We synthesize information contained in these time series to develop a global view of changes occurring in marine systems influenced by connectivity to land. Our review is organized around four themes: (i) human activities as drivers of change; (ii) variability of the climate system as a driver of change; (iii) successes, disappointments and challenges of managing change at the sea-land interface; and (iv) discoveries made from observations over time. Multidecadal time series reveal that many of the world's estuarine–coastal ecosystems are in a continuing state of change, and the pace of change is faster than we could have imagined a decade ago. Some have been transformed into novel ecosystems with habitats, biogeochemistry and biological communities outside the natural range of variability. Change takes many forms including linear and nonlinear trends, abrupt state changes and oscillations. The challenge of managing change is daunting in the coastal zone where diverse human pressures are concentrated and intersect with different responses to climate variability over land and over ocean basins. The pace of change in estuarine–coastal ecosystems will likely accelerate as the human population and economies continue to grow and as global climate change accelerates. Wise stewardship of the resources upon which we depend is critically dependent upon a continuing flow of information from observations to measure, understand and anticipate future changes along the world's coastlines.

Accelerated increase in plant species richness on mountain summits is linked to warming.

PubMed

Steinbauer, Manuel J; Grytnes, John-Arvid; Jurasinski, Gerald; Kulonen, Aino; Lenoir, Jonathan; Pauli, Harald; Rixen, Christian; Winkler, Manuela; Bardy-Durchhalter, Manfred; Barni, Elena; Bjorkman, Anne D; Breiner, Frank T; Burg, Sarah; Czortek, Patryk; Dawes, Melissa A; Delimat, Anna; Dullinger, Stefan; Erschbamer, Brigitta; Felde, Vivian A; Fernández-Arberas, Olatz; Fossheim, Kjetil F; Gómez-García, Daniel; Georges, Damien; Grindrud, Erlend T; Haider, Sylvia; Haugum, Siri V; Henriksen, Hanne; Herreros, María J; Jaroszewicz, Bogdan; Jaroszynska, Francesca; Kanka, Robert; Kapfer, Jutta; Klanderud, Kari; Kühn, Ingolf; Lamprecht, Andrea; Matteodo, Magali; di Cella, Umberto Morra; Normand, Signe; Odland, Arvid; Olsen, Siri L; Palacio, Sara; Petey, Martina; Piscová, Veronika; Sedlakova, Blazena; Steinbauer, Klaus; Stöckli, Veronika; Svenning, Jens-Christian; Teppa, Guido; Theurillat, Jean-Paul; Vittoz, Pascal; Woodin, Sarah J; Zimmermann, Niklaus E; Wipf, Sonja

2018-04-01

Globally accelerating trends in societal development and human environmental impacts since the mid-twentieth century 1-7 are known as the Great Acceleration and have been discussed as a key indicator of the onset of the Anthropocene epoch 6 . While reports on ecological responses (for example, changes in species range or local extinctions) to the Great Acceleration are multiplying 8, 9 , it is unknown whether such biotic responses are undergoing a similar acceleration over time. This knowledge gap stems from the limited availability of time series data on biodiversity changes across large temporal and geographical extents. Here we use a dataset of repeated plant surveys from 302 mountain summits across Europe, spanning 145 years of observation, to assess the temporal trajectory of mountain biodiversity changes as a globally coherent imprint of the Anthropocene. We find a continent-wide acceleration in the rate of increase in plant species richness, with five times as much species enrichment between 2007 and 2016 as fifty years ago, between 1957 and 1966. This acceleration is strikingly synchronized with accelerated global warming and is not linked to alternative global change drivers. The accelerating increases in species richness on mountain summits across this broad spatial extent demonstrate that acceleration in climate-induced biotic change is occurring even in remote places on Earth, with potentially far-ranging consequences not only for biodiversity, but also for ecosystem functioning and services.

Eutrophication and warming-driven green tides (Ulva rigida) are predicted to increase under future climate change scenarios.

PubMed

Gao, Guang; Clare, Anthony S; Rose, Craig; Caldwell, Gary S

2017-01-15

The incidence and severity of extraordinary macroalgae blooms (green tides) are increasing. Here, climate change (ocean warming and acidification) impacts on life history and biochemical responses of a causative green tide species, Ulva rigida, were investigated under combinations of pH (7.95, 7.55, corresponding to lower and higher pCO 2 ), temperature (14, 18°C) and nitrate availability (6 and 150μmolL -1 ). The higher temperature accelerated the onset and magnitude of gamete settlement. Any two factor combination promoted germination and accelerated growth in young plants. The higher temperature increased reproduction, which increased further in combination with elevated pCO 2 or nitrate. Reproductive success was highest (64.4±5.1%) when the upper limits of all three variables were combined. Biochemically, more protein and lipid but less carbohydrate were synthesized under higher temperature and nitrate conditions. These results suggest that climate change may cause more severe green tides, particularly when eutrophication cannot be effectively controlled. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climate Informatics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Monteleoni, Claire; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Alexander, Francis J.; Niculescu-Mizil, Alexandru; Steinhaeuser, Karsten; Tippett, Michael; Banerjee, Arindam; Blumenthal, M. Benno; Ganguly, Auroop R.; Smerdon, Jason E.;

Amplification and dampening of soil respiration by changes in temperature variability

Treesearch

C.A. Sierra; M.E. Harmon; E.A. Thomann; S.S. Perakis; H.W. Loescher

2011-01-01

Accelerated release of carbon from soils is one of the most important feedbacks related to anthropogenically induced climate change. Studies addressing the mechanisms for soil carbon release through organic matter decomposition have focused on the effect of changes in the average temperature, with little attention to changes in temperature variability. Anthropogenic...

Invasive hybridization in a threatened species is accelerated by climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Kovach, Ryan P.; Jones, Leslie A.; Al-Chokhachy, Robert K.; Boyer, Matthew C.; Leary, Robb F.; Lowe, Winsor H.; Luikart, Gordon; Allendorf, Fred W.

2014-01-01

Climate change will decrease worldwide biodiversity through a number of potential pathways, including invasive hybridization (cross-breeding between invasive and native species). How climate warming influences the spread of hybridization and loss of native genomes poses difficult ecological and evolutionary questions with little empirical information to guide conservation management decisions. Here we combine long-term genetic monitoring data with high-resolution climate and stream temperature predictions to evaluate how recent climate warming has influenced the spatio-temporal spread of human-mediated hybridization between threatened native westslope cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii lewisi) and non-native rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss), the world’s most widely introduced invasive fish. Despite widespread release of millions of rainbow trout over the past century within the Flathead River system, a large relatively pristine watershed in western North America, historical samples revealed that hybridization was prevalent only in one (source) population. During a subsequent 30-year period of accelerated warming, hybridization spread rapidly and was strongly linked to interactions between climatic drivers—precipitation and temperature—and distance to the source population. Specifically, decreases in spring precipitation and increases in summer stream temperature probably promoted upstream expansion of hybridization throughout the system. This study shows that rapid climate warming can exacerbate interactions between native and non-native species through invasive hybridization, which could spell genomic extinction for many species.

Increased precipitation accelerates soil organic matter turnover associated with microbial community composition in topsoil of alpine grassland on the eastern Tibetan Plateau.

PubMed

Han, Conghai; Wang, Zongli; Si, Guicai; Lei, Tianzhu; Yuan, Yanli; Zhang, Gengxin

2017-10-01

Large quantities of carbon are stored in alpine grassland of the Tibetan Plateau, which is extremely sensitive to climate change. However, it remains unclear whether soil organic matter (SOM) in different layers responds to climate change analogously, and whether microbial communities play vital roles in SOM turnover of topsoil. In this study we measured and collected SOM turnover by the 14 C method in alpine grassland to test climatic effects on SOM turnover in soil profiles. Edaphic properties and microbial communities in the northwestern Qinghai Lake were investigated to explore microbial influence on SOM turnover. SOM turnover in surface soil (0-10 cm) was more sensitive to precipitation than that in subsurface layers (10-40 cm). Precipitation also imposed stronger effects on the composition of microbial communities in the surface layer than that in deeper soil. At the 5-10 cm depth, the SOM turnover rate was positively associated with the bacteria/fungi biomass ratio and the relative abundance of Acidobacteria, both of which are related to precipitation. Partial correlation analysis suggested that increased precipitation could accelerate the SOM turnover rate in topsoil by structuring soil microbial communities. Conversely, carbon stored in deep soil would be barely affected by climate change. Our results provide valuable insights into the dynamics and storage of SOM in alpine grasslands under future climate scenarios.

Time-varying changes in the simulated structure of the Brewer-Dobson Circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garfinkel, Chaim I.; Aquila, Valentina; Waugh, Darryn W.; Oman, Luke D.

2017-01-01

A series of simulations using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry Climate Model are analyzed in order to assess changes in the Brewer-Dobson Circulation (BDC) over the past 55 years. When trends are computed over the past 55 years, the BDC accelerates throughout the stratosphere, consistent with previous modeling results. However, over the second half of the simulations (i.e., since the late 1980s), the model simulates structural changes in the BDC as the temporal evolution of the BDC varies between regions in the stratosphere. In the mid-stratosphere in the midlatitude Northern Hemisphere, the BDC does not accelerate in the ensemble mean of our simulations despite increases in greenhouse gas concentrations and warming sea surface temperatures, and it even decelerates in one ensemble member. This deceleration is reminiscent of changes inferred from satellite instruments and in situ measurements. In contrast, the BDC in the lower stratosphere continues to accelerate. The main forcing agents for the recent slowdown in the mid-stratosphere appear to be declining ozone-depleting substance (ODS) concentrations and the timing of volcanic eruptions. Changes in both mean age of air and the tropical upwelling of the residual circulation indicate a lack of recent acceleration. We therefore clarify that the statement that is often made that climate models simulate a decreasing age throughout the stratosphere only applies over long time periods and is not necessarily the case for the past 25 years, when most tracer measurements were taken.

Time-Varying Changes in the Simulated Structure of the Brewer-Dobson Circulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Garfinkel, Chaim I.; Aquila, Valentina; Waugh, Darryn W.; Oman, Luke D.

2017-01-01

A series of simulations using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry Climate Model are analyzed in order to assess changes in the Brewer-Dobson Circulation (BDC) over the past 55 years. When trends are computed over the past 55 years, the BDC accelerates throughout the stratosphere, consistent with previous modeling results. However, over the second half of the simulations (i.e., since the late 1980s), the model simulates structural changes in the BDC as the temporal evolution of the BDC varies between regions in the stratosphere. In the mid-stratosphere in the midlatitude Northern Hemisphere, the BDC does not accelerate in the ensemble mean of our simulations despite increases in greenhouse gas concentrations and warming sea surface temperatures, and it even decelerates in one ensemble member. This deceleration is reminiscent of changes inferred from satellite instruments and in situ measurements. In contrast, the BDC in the lower stratosphere continues to accelerate. The main forcing agents for the recent slowdown in the mid-stratosphere appear to be declining ozone-depleting substance (ODS) concentrations and the timing of volcanic eruptions. Changes in both mean age of air and the tropical upwelling of the residual circulation indicate a lack of recent acceleration. We therefore clarify that the statement that is often made that climate models simulate a decreasing age throughout the stratosphere only applies over long time periods and is not necessarily the case for the past 25 years, when most tracer measurements were taken.

Challenges of climate change: an Arctic perspective.

PubMed

Corell, Robert W

2006-06-01

Climate change is being experienced particularly intensely in the Arctic. Arctic average temperature has risen at almost twice the rate as that of the rest of the world in the past few decades. Widespread melting of glaciers and sea ice and rising permafrost temperatures present additional evidence of strong Arctic warming. These changes in the Arctic provide an early indication of the environmental and societal significance of global consequences. The Arctic also provides important natural resources to the rest of the world (such as oil, gas, and fish) that will be affected by climate change, and the melting of Arctic glaciers is one of the factors contributing to sea level rise around the globe. An acceleration of these climatic trends is projected to occur during this century, due to ongoing increases in concentrations of greenhouse gases in the Earth's atmosphere. These Arctic changes will, in turn, impact the planet as a whole.

Rapid rise of water level for Tibetan lakes: an analysis of the relation with climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, C.; Huang, B.

2013-12-01

The Tibetan Plateau (TP) has a large number of alpine lakes, which are sensitive indicators of climate variability due to minimal disturbances from human activities. Although earlier work has examined lake area and water level changes on the TP in the past several decades, so far, the climate-driven mechanism of lake variations is still not clear. In particular, it is uncertain which climatic factor (increased glacial meltwater caused by climate warming, or precipitation changes, etc.) induced the acceleration of lake growth since mid-1990s. This study examines water level changes of lakes during1990s~2011 by combining satellite Laser altimetry (covering small lakes due to finer footprints, but only during 2003~2009) and Radar altimetry (since 1990s, but only for a few large lakes due to coarse footprints). The precipitation and evaporation changes are also analyzed based on the GPCP data and station observations, which reveal that precipitation on the inner and northeast TP has experienced a significant increase of 2~8 mm/yr since mid-1990s and evaporation of most stations has showed an upward tendency. Two main findings of analyses on the relation of lake expansion and climate variability are summarized as follows: (1) The ICESat altimetry data during 2003~2009 shows that there is no significant difference between the change rates of water level of the 56 glacier-fed lakes and other 40 lakes without glacial meltwater supply, which implies that glacier melting induced by climate warming is probably not the dominating factor of rapid lake expansion. Six pairs of adjacent lakes with and without glacier supply (each pair is assumed under similar climate conditions) in different geographical regions (near the Nyainqêntanglha Mts., east Gangdise Mts., southeast Karakorum Mts., the Kunlun Mts., and the HolXil) were selected to further examine the impact of the glacier melting on lake expansions. Results show that some lakes without glacier supply even have higher growth rates than lakes with larger supply coefficients, which confirms that the rapid lake growth was more related with the precipitation increase rather than the glacial melting. (2) All 14 super-large lakes located in four different climate sub-zones showed a sharp water-level increase during 1995 ~ 2011 from the LEGOS (multiple radar altimetry data sets), but the timing of accelerated growth for lakes in different sub-zones is spatially heterogeneous. The abrupt change points of water level time series match very well with the years of more precipitation. For example, the water level of Lake Qinghai and Ngoring Co on the northeast TP declined in late-1990s and early-2000s, and had a sudden rise in 2004/2005 before keeping a slight increasing trend, which is in good agreement with the precipitation change in this region. The lakes in central Tibet, including Namco and Silingco, showed the earliest accelerated water level growth (since 1996/1997) due to more advanced increasing tendency of precipitation than other regions. In the contrast, temperature showed rapid rising trend in late 1980s and early 1990s which do not coincide with the timing of lake expansion. Thus, the glacier melting is probably not the primary factor of accelerated lake growth on the TP.

Can genomics deliver climate-change ready crops?

PubMed

Varshney, Rajeev K; Singh, Vikas K; Kumar, Arvind; Powell, Wayne; Sorrells, Mark E

2018-04-20

Development of climate resilient crops with accelerating genetic gains in crops will require integration of different disciplines/technologies, to see the impact in the farmer's field. In this review, we summarize how we are utilizing our germplasm collections to identify superior alleles/haplotypes through NGS based sequencing approaches and how genomics-enabled technologies together with precise phenotyping are being used in crop breeding. Pre-breeding and genomics-assisted breeding approaches are contributing to the more efficient development of climate-resilient crops. It is anticipated that the integration of several disciplines/technologies will result in the delivery of climate change ready crops in less time. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Start with the End in Mind: Experiences of Accelerated Course Completion by Pre-Service Teachers and Educators

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Collins, Anita; Hay, Iain; Heiner, Irmgard

2013-01-01

In response to changes government funding and policies over the past five years, the Australian tertiary sector has entered an increasingly competitive climate. This has forced many universities to become more strategic in attracting increased numbers of PSTs. Providing accelerated learning opportunities for PSTs is viewed as one way to gain…

The impact of climate change on coastal ecosystems: chapter 6

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burkett, Virginia; Woodroffe, Colin D.; Nicholls, Robert J.; Forbes, Donald L.

2014-01-01

In this chapter we stress two important features of coasts and coastal ecosystems. First, these are dynamic systems which continually undergo adjustments, especially through erosion and re-deposition, in response to a range of processes. Many coastal ecosystems adjust naturally at a range of time scales and their potential for response is examined partly by reconstructing how such systems have coped with natural changes of climate and sea level in the geological past. Second, coasts have changed profoundly through the 20th Century due to the impacts of human development (such as urbanisation, port and industrial expansion, shore protection, and the draining and conversion of coastal wetlands), with these development-related drivers closely linked to a growing global population and economy. It remains a challenge to isolate the impacts of climate change and sea-level rise from either the natural trajectory of shoreline change, or the accelerated pathway resulting from other human-related stressors. There exists a danger of overstating the importance of climate change, or overlooking significant interactions of climate change with other drivers.

Sea level rise, drought and the decline of Spartina patens in New England marshes

EPA Science Inventory

Already heavily impacted by coastal development, estuarine vegetated habitats (seagrasses, salt marshes, and mangroves) are increasingly affected by climate change via accelerated sea level rise, changes in the frequency and intensity of precipitation and storms, and warmer ocean...

Phenotypic plasticity and adaptive evolution contribute to advancing flowering phenology in response to climate change.

PubMed

Anderson, Jill T; Inouye, David W; McKinney, Amy M; Colautti, Robert I; Mitchell-Olds, Tom

2012-09-22

Anthropogenic climate change has already altered the timing of major life-history transitions, such as the initiation of reproduction. Both phenotypic plasticity and adaptive evolution can underlie rapid phenological shifts in response to climate change, but their relative contributions are poorly understood. Here, we combine a continuous 38 year field survey with quantitative genetic field experiments to assess adaptation in the context of climate change. We focused on Boechera stricta (Brassicaeae), a mustard native to the US Rocky Mountains. Flowering phenology advanced significantly from 1973 to 2011, and was strongly associated with warmer temperatures and earlier snowmelt dates. Strong directional selection favoured earlier flowering in contemporary environments (2010-2011). Climate change could drive this directional selection, and promote even earlier flowering as temperatures continue to increase. Our quantitative genetic analyses predict a response to selection of 0.2 to 0.5 days acceleration in flowering per generation, which could account for more than 20 per cent of the phenological change observed in the long-term dataset. However, the strength of directional selection and the predicted evolutionary response are likely much greater now than even 30 years ago because of rapidly changing climatic conditions. We predict that adaptation will likely be necessary for long-term in situ persistence in the context of climate change.

Effects of fire on the thermal stability of permafrost in lowland and upland black spruce forests of interior Alaska in a changing climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jafarov, Elchin E.; Romanovsky, Vladimir E.; Genet, Helene; McGuire, Anthony David; Marchenko, Sergey S.

2013-01-01

Fire is an important factor controlling the composition and thickness of the organic layer in the black spruce forest ecosystems of interior Alaska. Fire that burns the organic layer can trigger dramatic changes in the underlying permafrost, leading to accelerated ground thawing within a relatively short time. In this study, we addressed the following questions. (1) Which factors determine post-fire ground temperature dynamics in lowland and upland black spruce forests? (2) What levels of burn severity will cause irreversible permafrost degradation in these ecosystems? We evaluated these questions in a transient modeling–sensitivity analysis framework to assess the sensitivity of permafrost to climate, burn severity, soil organic layer thickness, and soil moisture content in lowland (with thick organic layers, ~80 cm) and upland (with thin organic layers, ~30 cm) black spruce ecosystems. The results indicate that climate warming accompanied by fire disturbance could significantly accelerate permafrost degradation. In upland black spruce forest, permafrost could completely degrade in an 18 m soil column within 120 years of a severe fire in an unchanging climate. In contrast, in a lowland black spruce forest, permafrost is more resilient to disturbance and can persist under a combination of moderate burn severity and climate warming.

C-N-P interactions control climate driven changes in regional patterns of C storage on the North Slope of Alaska

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jiang, Yueyang; Rocha, Adrian; Rastetter, Edward

2016-01-01

As climate warms, changes in the carbon (C) balance of arctic tundra will play an important role in the global C balance. The C balance of tundra is tightly coupled to the nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) cycles because soil organic matter is the principal source of plant-available nutrients and determines the spatial variation of vegetation biomass across the North Slope of Alaska. Warming will accelerate these nutrient cycles, which should stimulate plant growth.

Acceleration of thaw slump activity in glaciated landscapes of the Western Canadian Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Segal, Rebecca A.; Lantz, Trevor C.; Kokelj, Steven V.

2016-03-01

Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of thermokarst, but the influences of regional climate and physiography remain poorly understood. Retrogressive thaw slumping is one of the most dynamic forms of thermokarst and affects many areas of glaciated terrain across northwestern Canada. In this study, we used airphotos and satellite imagery to investigate the influence of climate and landscape factors on thaw slump dynamics. We assessed slump size, density, and growth rates in four regions of ice-rich terrain with contrasting climate and physiographic conditions: the Jesse Moraine, the Tuktoyaktuk Coastlands, the Bluenose Moraine, and the Peel Plateau. Observed increases in: (1) the area impacted by slumps (+2 to +407%), (2) average slump sizes (+0.31 to +1.82 ha), and (3) slump growth rates (+169 to +465 m2 yr-1) showed that thermokarst activity is rapidly accelerating in ice-rich morainal landscapes in the western Canadian Arctic, where slumping has become a dominant driver of geomorphic change. Differences in slump characteristics among regions indicate that slump development is strongly influenced by topography, ground ice conditions, and Quaternary history. Observed increases in slump activity occurred in conjunction with increases in air temperature and precipitation, but variation in slump activity among the four regions suggests that increased precipitation has been an important driver of change. Our observation that the most rapid intensification of slump activity occurred in the coldest environment (the Jesse Moraine on Banks Island) indicates that ice-cored landscapes in cold permafrost environments are highly vulnerable to climate change.

Climate Change driven evolution of hazards to Europe's transport infrastructure throughout the twenty-first century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matulla, Christoph; Hollósi, Brigitta; Andre, Konrad; Gringinger, Julia; Chimani, Barbara; Namyslo, Joachim; Fuchs, Tobias; Auerbach, Markus; Herrmann, Carina; Sladek, Brigitte; Berghold, Heimo; Gschier, Roland; Eichinger-Vill, Eva

2017-06-01

Road authorities, freight, and logistic industries face a multitude of challenges in a world changing at an ever growing pace. While globalization, changes in technology, demography, and traffic, for instance, have received much attention over the bygone decades, climate change has not been treated with equal care until recently. However, since it has been recognized that climate change jeopardizes many business areas in transport, freight, and logistics, research programs investigating future threats have been initiated. One of these programs is the Conference of European Directors of Roads' (CEDR) Transnational Research Programme (TRP), which emerged about a decade ago from a cooperation between European National Road Authorities and the EU. This paper presents findings of a CEDR project called CliPDaR, which has been designed to answer questions from road authorities concerning climate-driven future threats to transport infrastructure. Pertaining results are based on two potential future socio-economic pathways of mankind (one strongly economically oriented "A2" and one more balanced scenario "A1B"), which are used to drive global climate models (GCMs) producing global and continental scale climate change projections. In order to achieve climate change projections, which are valid on regional scales, GCM projections are downscaled by regional climate models. Results shown here originate from research questions raised by European Road Authorities. They refer to future occurrence frequencies of severely cold winter seasons in Fennoscandia, to particularly hot summer seasons in the Iberian Peninsula and to changes in extreme weather phenomena triggering landslides and rutting in Central Europe. Future occurrence frequencies of extreme winter and summer conditions are investigated by empirical orthogonal function analyses of GCM projections driven with by A2 and A1B pathways. The analysis of future weather phenomena triggering landslides and rutting events requires downscaled climate change projections. Hence, corresponding results are based on an ensemble of RCM projections, which was available for the A1B scenario. All analyzed risks to transport infrastructure are found to increase over the decades ahead with accelerating pace towards the end of this century. Mean Fennoscandian winter temperatures by the end of this century may match conditions of rather warm winter season experienced in the past and particularly warm future winter temperatures have not been observed so far. This applies in an even more pronounced manner to summer seasons in the Iberian Peninsula. Occurrence frequencies of extreme climate phenomena triggering landslides and rutting events in Central Europe are also projected to rise. Results show spatially differentiated patterns and indicate accelerated rates of increases.

Synergy between land use and climate change increases future fire risk in Amazon forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Page, Yannick; Morton, Douglas; Hartin, Corinne; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Cardoso Pereira, José Miguel; Hurtt, George; Asrar, Ghassem

2017-12-01

Tropical forests have been a permanent feature of the Amazon basin for at least 55 million years, yet climate change and land use threaten the forest's future over the next century. Understory forest fires, which are common under the current climate in frontier forests, may accelerate Amazon forest losses from climate-driven dieback and deforestation. Far from land use frontiers, scarce fire ignitions and high moisture levels preclude significant burning, yet projected climate and land use changes may increase fire activity in these remote regions. Here, we used a fire model specifically parameterized for Amazon understory fires to examine the interactions between anthropogenic activities and climate under current and projected conditions. In a scenario of low mitigation efforts with substantial land use expansion and climate change - Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 - projected understory fires increase in frequency and duration, burning 4-28 times more forest in 2080-2100 than during 1990-2010. In contrast, active climate mitigation and land use contraction in RCP4.5 constrain the projected increase in fire activity to 0.9-5.4 times contemporary burned area. Importantly, if climate mitigation is not successful, land use contraction alone is very effective under low to moderate climate change, but does little to reduce fire activity under the most severe climate projections. These results underscore the potential for a fire-driven transformation of Amazon forests if recent regional policies for forest conservation are not paired with global efforts to mitigate climate change.

Funnel-shaped surface depressions - Indicator or accelerant of rapid glacier disintegration? A case study in the Tyrolean Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stocker-Waldhuber, Martin; Fischer, Andrea; Keller, Lorenz; Morche, David; Kuhn, Michael

2017-06-01

Alpine glaciers have been retreating at extreme and historically unprecedented rates. While the general course of regional retreat rates reflects long-term climatic change, individual extreme events are closely related to the geomorphological settings and processes of the specific glacier. Nevertheless, these extreme events also influence the regional means and might be an important feedback mechanism accelerating the response of glaciers to climate change. In 2009, during the recent disintegration of the terminus of Gepatschferner (46°52‧30″N, 10°45‧25″E), a shallow circular depression appeared at the glacier tongue with a decrease of surface ice flow velocity to almost nil. In 2015 the area was ice-free. During a heavy precipitation event in August 2012, a subglacial sediment layer of > 10 m was flushed out, which accelerated the subsidence of the ice surface. The development of this 15 to 30 m deep depression was monitored with a combination of methods in high detail, including direct ablation measurements and a time series of seven high-resolution airborne laser DEMs, plus recordings of ice flow velocity and surface elevation with DGPS. The thickness of ice and sediment layers was measured with vibroseismic soundings in 2012 and 2013. Similar developments were observed at three other glaciers with extreme retreat rates. Our investigation suggests that this mechanism has a major impact on and can be read as an indicator of a nonlinear increased response of glaciers to climate change.

Global warming and climate change in Amazonia: Climate-vegetation feedback and impacts on water resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marengo, José; Nobre, Carlos A.; Betts, Richard A.; Cox, Peter M.; Sampaio, Gilvan; Salazar, Luis

This chapter constitutes an updated review of long-term climate variability and change in the Amazon region, based on observational data spanning more than 50 years of records and on climate-change modeling studies. We start with the early experiments on Amazon deforestation in the late 1970s, and the evolution of these experiments to the latest studies on greenhouse gases emission scenarios and land use changes until the end of the twenty-first century. The "Amazon dieback" simulated by the HadCM3 model occurs after a "tipping point" of CO2 concentration and warming. Experiments on Amazon deforestation and change of climate suggest that once a critical deforestation threshold (or tipping point) of 40-50% forest loss is reached in eastern Amazonia, climate would change in a way which is dangerous for the remaining forest. This may favor a collapse of the tropical forest, with a substitution of the forest by savanna-type vegetation. The concept of "dangerous climate change," as a climate change, which induces positive feedback, which accelerate the change, is strongly linked to the occurrence of tipping points, and it can be explained as the presence of feedback between climate change and the carbon cycle, particularly involving a weakening of the current terrestrial carbon sink and a possible reversal from a sink (as in present climate) to a source by the year 2050. We must, therefore, currently consider the drying simulated by the Hadley Centre model(s) as having a finite probability under global warming, with a potentially enormous impact, but with some degree of uncertainty.

Multiple climate drivers accelerate Arctic plant community senescence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Livensperger, C.; Steltzer, H.; Wallenstein, M. D.; Weintraub, M. N.

2015-12-01

Alteration of seasonal phenology cues due to climate change has led to changes in the onset and duration of the growing season. While photoperiod often acts as an ultimate control on phenological events, recent studies have shown that environmental cues such as temperature and soil water content can modify the direction and rate of senescence processes. Warmer temperatures have resulted in an observed trend towards delayed senescence across temperate latitudes. However, Arctic regions are characterized by extreme seasonality and rapidly decreasing photoperiod, and consequently senescence may not shift as climate warms. We monitored the timing of Arctic plant community senescence for three years under the framework of an experimental manipulation that altered seasonal phenological cues through warming and earlier snowmelt. Alternative models of senescence were tested to determine if microclimate (air temperature, soil temperature, and soil moisture) or start of season phenology affect the timing and rate of community senescence. We found that all three microclimate predictors contributed to explaining variation in timing of senescence, suggesting that photoperiod is not the sole control on timing of senescence in Arctic plant communities. Rather, increased air and soil temperatures along with drier soil conditions, led to acceleration in the onset of senescence at a community level. Our data suggest that (1) multiple climate drivers predict timing of plant community senescence, and (2) climate change could result in a shorter peak season due to earlier onset of senescence, which would decrease the potential carbon uptake in moist acidic tundra.

Insights on the energy-water nexus through modeling of the integrated water cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leung, L. R.; Li, H. Y.; Zhang, X.; Wan, W.; Voisin, N.; Leng, G.

2016-12-01

For sustainable energy planning, understanding the impacts of climate change, land use change, and water management is essential as they all exert notable controls on streamflow and stream temperature that influence energy production. An integrated water model representing river processes, irrigation water use and water management has been developed and coupled to a land surface model to investigate the energy-water nexus. Simulations driven by two climate change projections with the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emissions scenarios, with and without water management, are analyzed to evaluate the individual and combined effects of climate change and water management on streamflow and stream temperature. The simulations revealed important impacts of climate change and water management on both floods and droughts. The simulations also revealed the dynamics of competition between changes in water demand and water availability in the climate mitigation (RCP 4.5) and business as usual (RCP 8.5) scenarios that influence streamflow and stream temperature, with important consequences to energy production. The integrated water model is being implemented to the Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME) to enable investigation of the energy-water nexus in the fully coupled Earth system.

Effects of solar UV radiation and climate change on biogeochemical cycling: interactions and feedbacks.

PubMed

Zepp, R G; Erickson, D J; Paul, N D; Sulzberger, B

2011-02-01

Solar UV radiation, climate and other drivers of global change are undergoing significant changes and models forecast that these changes will continue for the remainder of this century. Here we assess the effects of solar UV radiation on biogeochemical cycles and the interactions of these effects with climate change, including feedbacks on climate. Such interactions occur in both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. While there is significant uncertainty in the quantification of these effects, they could accelerate the rate of atmospheric CO(2) increase and subsequent climate change beyond current predictions. The effects of predicted changes in climate and solar UV radiation on carbon cycling in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems are expected to vary significantly between regions. The balance of positive and negative effects on terrestrial carbon cycling remains uncertain, but the interactions between UV radiation and climate change are likely to contribute to decreasing sink strength in many oceanic regions. Interactions between climate and solar UV radiation will affect cycling of elements other than carbon, and so will influence the concentration of greenhouse and ozone-depleting gases. For example, increases in oxygen-deficient regions of the ocean caused by climate change are projected to enhance the emissions of nitrous oxide, an important greenhouse and ozone-depleting gas. Future changes in UV-induced transformations of aquatic and terrestrial contaminants could have both beneficial and adverse effects. Taken in total, it is clear that the future changes in UV radiation coupled with human-caused global change will have large impacts on biogeochemical cycles at local, regional and global scales.

Altmetric: 165More detailArticle | OPENClimate change-induced increases in precipitation are reducing the potential for solar ultraviolet radiation to inactivate pathogens in surface waters

EPA Science Inventory

Climate change is accelerating the release of dissolved organic matter (DOM) to inland and coastal waters through increases in precipitation, thawing of permafrost, and changes in vegetation. Our modeling approach suggests that the selective absorption of ultraviolet radiation (U...

Unexpected redwood mortality from synergies between wildfire and an emerging infectious disease

Treesearch

Margaret R. Metz; J. Morgan Varner; Kerri M. Frangioso; Ross K. Meentemeyer; David M. Rizzo

2014-01-01

An under-examined component of global change is the alteration of disturbance regimes due to warming climates, continued species invasions, and accelerated land-use change. These drivers of global change are themselves novel ecosystem disturbances that may interact with historically occurring disturbances in complex ways. Here we use the natural experiment presented by...

Global climate change and children's health.

PubMed

Shea, Katherine M

2007-11-01

There is broad scientific consensus that Earth's climate is warming rapidly and at an accelerating rate. Human activities, primarily the burning of fossil fuels, are very likely (>90% probability) to be the main cause of this warming. Climate-sensitive changes in ecosystems are already being observed, and fundamental, potentially irreversible, ecological changes may occur in the coming decades. Conservative environmental estimates of the impact of climate changes that are already in process indicate that they will result in numerous health effects to children. The nature and extent of these changes will be greatly affected by actions taken or not taken now at the global level. Physicians have written on the projected effects of climate change on public health, but little has been written specifically on anticipated effects of climate change on children's health. Children represent a particularly vulnerable group that is likely to suffer disproportionately from both direct and indirect adverse health effects of climate change. Pediatric health care professionals should understand these threats, anticipate their effects on children's health, and participate as children's advocates for strong mitigation and adaptation strategies now. Any solutions that address climate change must be developed within the context of overall sustainability (the use of resources by the current generation to meet current needs while ensuring that future generations will be able to meet their needs). Pediatric health care professionals can be leaders in a move away from a traditional focus on disease prevention to a broad, integrated focus on sustainability as synonymous with health. This policy statement is supported by a technical report that examines in some depth the nature of the problem of climate change, likely effects on children's health as a result of climate change, and the critical importance of responding promptly and aggressively to reduce activities that are contributing to this change.

To what extent can we attribute accelerated landscape change to human activity? A cautionary tale from the drylands of the South African interior

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tooth, Stephen; Lyons, Richard; Duller, Geoff; McCarthy, Terence

2013-04-01

Across many parts of interior South Africa, alluvial and colluvial sediments are currently subject to widespread erosion by rivers, dongas (gullies), sheetwash and wind. This creates an impression of accelerated landscape change that is commonly attributed to factors such as poor land management by European settlers (mid 18th century onwards) or indigenous peoples, possibly in combination with decadal-scale climatic fluctuations and/or susceptible soil characteristics. Many resources are devoted to managing degrading lands, but effective conservation and restoration efforts are contingent on correctly identifying the underlying causes of erosion. Across South Africa, varied population densities, and diverse climates and soil types, mean that the causes of erosion are likely to be complex and to vary regionally. In some regions, examples of accelerated erosion resulting from vegetation clearance, overburning, overstocking, artificial drainage or land abandonment can be demonstrated. In other regions, however, our geomorphological, sedimentological and geochronological investigations provide an alternative 'geological' perspective on this erosion 'problem' by demonstrating that erosion may be a recurring, natural process linked to late Quaternary climate change and/or longer term landscape denudation. In particular, luminescence chronologies for hillslopes, alluvial fans and river floodplains/terraces at various locations across interior South Africa have enabled comparison with other regional/global palaeoenvironmental records. These comparisons reveal that climatically-controlled changes in runoff and sediment supply, mediated through vegetation cover changes, resulted in shifts between sedimentation (relative aridity), soil formation (relative humidity) and minor channel/donga erosion (semiaridity) from at least 40 kyr until the late Holocene. By contrast, major erosion involving sustained channel incision and associated donga formation appears to have been initiated during the last few thousand years, at some sites apparently corresponding with rapid climatic fluctuations associated with the Mediaeval Warm Period and Little Ice Age. In some instances, channel incision depth has been controlled by the stability of downstream resistant rock barriers (e.g. dolerite sills and dykes) that form local baselevels in river long profiles; upstream of stable barriers, incision has been restricted but where barriers have been partially or fully breached, then deep incision into bedrock is characteristic. These findings provide evidence that: 1) during the late Quaternary, erosional phases have occurred independently of human activity, in different climatic settings, and across different soil types; and 2) in many regions, even the present phase of deep channel incision and donga formation predates the advent of European settlement or indigenous population expansion. These 'geological' perspectives on the age and history of major erosional features demonstrate that accelerated landscape change in South Africa is not necessarily a consequence of human activities, and cannot be assumed to represent an unequivocal signature of the Anthropocene. These perspectives also have implications for land management. Where erosion is indisputably occurring as a result of land mismanagement, then alternative land use practices and erosion-control measures may succeed in slowing or reversing erosion, but where erosion results from natural climatic or denudational processes, then such schemes are unlikely to succeed in the medium- or long-term.

Accelerated soil carbon loss by biological changes under warming in Alaskan tundra

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, J.; Schuur, E.; Luo, Y.; Cole, J. R.; Jiang, L.; Konstantinidis, K.; Mauritz, M.; Natali, S.; Pegoraro, E.; Penton, C. R.; Plaza, C.; Salmon, V. G.; Shi, Z.; Tiedje, J. M.; Wu, L.; Xia, J.; Zhou, J.

2016-12-01

Permafrost regions, which contain a large amount of temperature-protected organic carbon (C), could be a significant C source as climate gets warmer. Climate warming can result in physical (e.g., temperature rise and permafrost thaw) and biological (e.g., microbial community composition) changes in the permafrost regions. While it is well agreed that physical changes can accelerate C releases to the atmosphere by increasing thermodynamic reaction rates and the accessibility of soil organic C (SOC) to decomposers, how biological changes impact permafrost soil C loss is still unclear. In this study, we quantified the impact of the biological changes on soil C loss in an Alaskan tundra through combining a process-based model and a unique field experiment. Our results showed that warming reduced the allocation of gross primary production to plants. In addition, warming significantly changed soil microbial functional community structure and consequently, stimulated the turnover rate of SOC, but decreased the C use efficiency. The altered biological properties significantly intensified soil C loss. Our study suggests that the predicted C loss in the permafrost regions may be underestimated due to the absence of the biological changes in Earth system models.

Tracking lags in historical plant species' shifts in relation to regional climate change.

PubMed

Ash, Jeremy D; Givnish, Thomas J; Waller, Donald M

2017-03-01

Can species shift their distributions fast enough to track changes in climate? We used abundance data from the 1950s and the 2000s in Wisconsin to measure shifts in the distribution and abundance of 78 forest-understory plant species over the last half-century and compare these shifts to changes in climate. We estimated temporal shifts in the geographic distribution of each species using vectors to connect abundance-weighted centroids from the 1950s and 2000s. These shifts in distribution reflect colonization, extirpation, and changes in abundance within sites, separately quantified here. We then applied climate analog analyses to compute vectors representing the climate change that each species experienced. Species shifted mostly to the northwest (mean: 49 ± 29 km) primarily reflecting processes of colonization and changes in local abundance. Analog climates for these species shifted even further to the northwest, however, exceeding species' shifts by an average of 90 ± 40 km. Most species thus failed to match recent rates of climate change. These lags decline in species that have colonized more sites and those with broader site occupancy, larger seed mass, and higher habitat fidelity. Thus, species' traits appear to affect their responses to climate change, but relationships are weak. As climate change accelerates, these lags will likely increase, potentially threatening the persistence of species lacking the capacity to disperse to new sites or locally adapt. However, species with greater lags have not yet declined more in abundance. The extent of these threats will likely depend on how other drivers of ecological change and interactions among species affect their responses to climate change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Carbon Climate Feedbacks and Climate Sensitivity (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fung, I.

2009-12-01

The Charney report (22 pages including bibliography and appendices) was written when atmospheric CO2 was 334 ppmv (1979). It estimates a climate sensitivity of 3 +/- 1.5C for a doubling of CO2, and points out the warming delay due to the slow penetration of heat into intermediate depths in the oceans and the decreasing capacity of the oceans to serve a CO2 sink. “We may not be given a warning until the CO2 loading is such that an appreciable climate change is inevitable. The equilibrium warming will eventually occur; it will merely have been postponed.” CO2 exceeded 385 ppmv in 2008, and the warning signs are now abundantly evident. One of the “slow” feedbacks not included in the Charney Report involves the interaction between the land carbon cycle and climate change. The carbon cycle on land is coupled to the water and energy cycles. This paper reviews positive and negative carbon-climate feedbacks associated with changes in the function and distribution of land ecosystems. These feedbacks, once in gear, will magnify climate sensitivity and accelerate global warming.

Hidden benefits of electric vehicles for addressing climate change.

PubMed

Li, Canbing; Cao, Yijia; Zhang, Mi; Wang, Jianhui; Liu, Jianguo; Shi, Haiqing; Geng, Yinghui

2015-03-19

There is an increasingly hot debate on whether the replacement of conventional vehicles (CVs) by electric vehicles (EVs) should be delayed or accelerated since EVs require higher cost and cause more pollution than CVs in the manufacturing process. Here we reveal two hidden benefits of EVs for addressing climate change to support the imperative acceleration of replacing CVs with EVs. As EVs emit much less heat than CVs within the same mileage, the replacement can mitigate urban heat island effect (UHIE) to reduce the energy consumption of air conditioners, benefitting local and global climates. To demonstrate these effects brought by the replacement of CVs by EVs, we take Beijing, China, as an example. EVs emit only 19.8% of the total heat emitted by CVs per mile. The replacement of CVs by EVs in 2012 could have mitigated the summer heat island intensity (HII) by about 0.94°C, reduced the amount of electricity consumed daily by air conditioners in buildings by 14.44 million kilowatt-hours (kWh), and reduced daily CO2 emissions by 10,686 tonnes.

Hidden benefits of electric vehicles for addressing climate change

DOE PAGES

Li, Canbing; Cao, Yijia; Zhang, Mi; ...

2015-03-19

There is an increasingly hot debate on whether the replacement of conventional vehicles (CVs) by electric vehicles (EVs) should be delayed or accelerated since EVs require higher cost and cause more pollution than CVs in the manufacturing process. Here we reveal two hidden benefits of EVs for addressing climate change to support the imperative acceleration of replacing CVs with EVs. As EVs emit much less heat than CVs within the same mileage, the replacement can mitigate urban heat island effect (UHIE) to reduce the energy consumption of air conditioners, benefitting local and global climates. To demonstrate these effects brought bymore » the replacement of CVs by EVs, we take Beijing, China, as an example. EVs emit only 19.8% of the total heat emitted by CVs per mile. The replacement of CVs by EVs in 2012 could have mitigated the summer heat island intensity (HII) by about 0.94°C, reduced the amount of electricity consumed daily by air conditioners in buildings by 14.44 million kilowatt-hours (kWh), and reduced daily CO₂ emissions by 10,686 tonnes.« less

Climate Change and Older Americans: State of the Science

PubMed Central

Hurley, Bradford J.; Schultz, Peter A.; Jaglom, Wendy S.; Krishnan, Nisha; Harris, Melinda

2012-01-01

Background: Older adults make up 13% of the U.S. population, but are projected to account for 20% by 2040. Coinciding with this demographic shift, the rate of climate change is accelerating, bringing rising temperatures; increased risk of floods, droughts, and wildfires; stronger tropical storms and hurricanes; rising sea levels; and other climate-related hazards. Older Americans are expected to be located in places that may be relatively more affected by climate change, including coastal zones and large metropolitan areas. Objective: The objective of this review is to assess the vulnerability of older Americans to climate change and to identify opportunities for adaptation. Methods: We performed an extensive literature survey and summarized key findings related to demographics; climate stressors relevant to older adults; factors contributing to exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity; and adaptation strategies. Discussion: A range of physiological and socioeconomic factors make older adults especially sensitive to and/or at risk for exposure to heat waves and other extreme weather events (e.g., hurricanes, floods, droughts), poor air quality, and infectious diseases. Climate change may increase the frequency or severity of these events. Conclusions: Older Americans are likely to be especially vulnerable to stressors associated with climate change. Although a growing body of evidence reports the adverse effects of heat on the health of older adults, research gaps remain for other climate-related risks. We need additional study of the vulnerability of older adults and the interplay of vulnerability, resilience, and adaptive responses to projected climate stressors. PMID:23033457

Climate change and older Americans: state of the science.

PubMed

Gamble, Janet L; Hurley, Bradford J; Schultz, Peter A; Jaglom, Wendy S; Krishnan, Nisha; Harris, Melinda

2013-01-01

Older adults make up 13% of the U.S. population, but are projected to account for 20% by 2040. Coinciding with this demographic shift, the rate of climate change is accelerating, bringing rising temperatures; increased risk of floods, droughts, and wildfires; stronger tropical storms and hurricanes; rising sea levels; and other climate-related hazards. Older Americans are expected to be located in places that may be relatively more affected by climate change, including coastal zones and large metropolitan areas. The objective of this review is to assess the vulnerability of older Americans to climate change and to identify opportunities for adaptation. We performed an extensive literature survey and summarized key findings related to demographics; climate stressors relevant to older adults; factors contributing to exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity; and adaptation strategies. A range of physiological and socioeconomic factors make older adults especially sensitive to and/or at risk for exposure to heat waves and other extreme weather events (e.g., hurricanes, floods, droughts), poor air quality, and infectious diseases. Climate change may increase the frequency or severity of these events. Older Americans are likely to be especially vulnerable to stressors associated with climate change. Although a growing body of evidence reports the adverse effects of heat on the health of older adults, research gaps remain for other climate-related risks. We need additional study of the vulnerability of older adults and the interplay of vulnerability, resilience, and adaptive responses to projected climate stressors.

Effects of heat stress on working populations when facing climate change.

PubMed

Lundgren, Karin; Kuklane, Kalev; Gao, Chuansi; Holmér, Ingvar

2013-01-01

It is accepted that the earth's climate is changing in an accelerating pace, with already documented implications for human health and the environment. This literature review provides an overview of existing research findings about the effects of heat stress on the working population in relation to climate change. In the light of climate change adaptation, the purpose of the literature review was to explore recent and previous research into the impacts of heat stress on humans in an occupational setting. Heat stress in the workplace has been researched extensively in the past however, in the contemporary context of climate change, information is lacking on its extent and implications. The main factors found to exacerbate heat stress in the current and future workplace are the urban 'heat island effect', physical work, individual differences, and the developing country context where technological fixes are often not applicable. There is also a lack of information on the effects on vulnerable groups such as elderly people and pregnant women. As increasing temperatures reduce work productivity, world economic productivity could be condensed, affecting developing countries in the tropical climate zone disproportionately. Future research is needed taking an interdisciplinary approach, including social, economic, environmental and technical aspects.

Climate Change and Risks to National Security

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Titley, D.

2017-12-01

Climate change impacts national security in three ways: through changes in the operating environments of the military; by increasing risks to security infrastructure, specifically bases and training ranges; and by exacerbating and accelerating the risks of state collapse and conflict in regions that are already fragile and unstable. Additionally there will be unique security challenges in the Arctic as sea-ice melts out and human activities increase across multiple dimensions. Military forces will also likely see increased demand for Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief resulting from a combination of increased human population, rising sea-level, and potentially stronger and wetter storms. The talk will explore some of the lesser known aspects of these changes, examine selected climate-driven 'wild cards' that have the potential to disrupt regional and global security, and explore how migration in the face of a changing climate may heighten security issues. I will assess the positions U.S. executive and legislative branches with respect to climate & security, and how those positions have evolved since the November 2016 election, sometimes in counter-intuitive ways. The talk will close with some recommended courses of action the security enterprise can take to manage this climate risk.

Competitive and demographic leverage points of community shifts under climate warming

PubMed Central

Sorte, Cascade J. B.; White, J. Wilson

2013-01-01

Accelerating rates of climate change and a paucity of whole-community studies of climate impacts limit our ability to forecast shifts in ecosystem structure and dynamics, particularly because climate change can lead to idiosyncratic responses via both demographic effects and altered species interactions. We used a multispecies model to predict which processes and species' responses are likely to drive shifts in the composition of a space-limited benthic marine community. Our model was parametrized from experimental manipulations of the community. Model simulations indicated shifts in species dominance patterns as temperatures increase, with projected shifts in composition primarily owing to the temperature dependence of growth, mortality and competition for three critical species. By contrast, warming impacts on two other species (rendering them weaker competitors for space) and recruitment rates of all species were of lesser importance in determining projected community changes. Our analysis reveals the importance of temperature-dependent competitive interactions for predicting effects of changing climate on such communities. Furthermore, by identifying processes and species that could disproportionately leverage shifts in community composition, our results contribute to a mechanistic understanding of climate change impacts, thereby allowing more insightful predictions of future biodiversity patterns. PMID:23658199

Climate Informatics: Accelerating Discovering in Climate Science with Machine Learning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Monteleoni, Claire; Schmidt, Gavin A.; McQuade, Scott

2014-01-01

The goal of climate informatics, an emerging discipline, is to inspire collaboration between climate scientists and data scientists, in order to develop tools to analyze complex and ever-growing amounts of observed and simulated climate data, and thereby bridge the gap between data and understanding. Here, recent climate informatics work is presented, along with details of some of the field's remaining challenges. Given the impact of climate change, understanding the climate system is an international priority. The goal of climate informatics is to inspire collaboration between climate scientists and data scientists, in order to develop tools to analyze complex and ever-growing amounts of observed and simulated climate data, and thereby bridge the gap between data and understanding. Here, recent climate informatics work is presented, along with details of some of the remaining challenges.

Synergy between land use and climate change increases future fire risk in Amazon forests

DOE PAGES

Le Page, Yannick; Morton, Douglas; Hartin, Corinne; ...

2017-12-20

Tropical forests have been a permanent feature of the Amazon basin for at least 55 million years, yet climate change and land use threaten the forest's future over the next century. Understory forest fires, which are common under the current climate in frontier forests, may accelerate Amazon forest losses from climate-driven dieback and deforestation. Far from land use frontiers, scarce fire ignitions and high moisture levels preclude significant burning, yet projected climate and land use changes may increase fire activity in these remote regions. Here, we used a fire model specifically parameterized for Amazon understory fires to examine the interactionsmore » between anthropogenic activities and climate under current and projected conditions. In a scenario of low mitigation efforts with substantial land use expansion and climate change – Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 – projected understory fires increase in frequency and duration, burning 4–28 times more forest in 2080–2100 than during 1990–2010. In contrast, active climate mitigation and land use contraction in RCP4.5 constrain the projected increase in fire activity to 0.9–5.4 times contemporary burned area. Importantly, if climate mitigation is not successful, land use contraction alone is very effective under low to moderate climate change, but does little to reduce fire activity under the most severe climate projections. These results underscore the potential for a fire-driven transformation of Amazon forests if recent regional policies for forest conservation are not paired with global efforts to mitigate climate change.« less

Synergy between land use and climate change increases future fire risk in Amazon forests

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Le Page, Yannick; Morton, Douglas; Hartin, Corinne

Tropical forests have been a permanent feature of the Amazon basin for at least 55 million years, yet climate change and land use threaten the forest's future over the next century. Understory forest fires, which are common under the current climate in frontier forests, may accelerate Amazon forest losses from climate-driven dieback and deforestation. Far from land use frontiers, scarce fire ignitions and high moisture levels preclude significant burning, yet projected climate and land use changes may increase fire activity in these remote regions. Here, we used a fire model specifically parameterized for Amazon understory fires to examine the interactionsmore » between anthropogenic activities and climate under current and projected conditions. In a scenario of low mitigation efforts with substantial land use expansion and climate change – Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 – projected understory fires increase in frequency and duration, burning 4–28 times more forest in 2080–2100 than during 1990–2010. In contrast, active climate mitigation and land use contraction in RCP4.5 constrain the projected increase in fire activity to 0.9–5.4 times contemporary burned area. Importantly, if climate mitigation is not successful, land use contraction alone is very effective under low to moderate climate change, but does little to reduce fire activity under the most severe climate projections. These results underscore the potential for a fire-driven transformation of Amazon forests if recent regional policies for forest conservation are not paired with global efforts to mitigate climate change.« less

Climate Change, Disaster and Sentiment Analysis over Social Media Mining

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, J.; McCusker, J. P.; McGuinness, D. L.

2012-12-01

Accelerated climate change causes disasters and disrupts people living all over the globe. Disruptive climate events are often reflected in expressed sentiments of the people affected. Monitoring changes in these sentiments during and after disasters can reveal relationships between climate change and mental health. We developed a semantic web tool that uses linked data principles and semantic web technologies to integrate data from multiple sources and analyze them together. We are converting statistical data on climate change and disaster records obtained from the World Bank data catalog and the International Disaster Database into a Resource Description Framework (RDF) representation that was annotated with the RDF Data Cube vocabulary. We compare these data with a dataset of tweets that mention terms from the Emotion Ontology to get a sense of how disasters can impact the affected populations. This dataset is being gathered using an infrastructure we developed that extracts term uses in Twitter with controlled vocabularies. This data was also converted to RDF structure so that statistical data on the climate change and disasters is analyzed together with sentiment data. To visualize and explore relationship of the multiple data across the dimensions of time and location, we use the qb.js framework. We are using this approach to investigate the social and emotional impact of climate change. We hope that this will demonstrate the use of social media data as a valuable source of understanding on global climate change.

Conversion of grazed pastures to energy cane as a biofuel feedstock alters seasonal soil GHG fluxes

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Changes in land use can profoundly affect the climate through variations in the emission of soil GHG. Global demands for biofuel feedstock is accelerating land use change by prompting the conversion of marginal land and managed ecosystems to highly productive second-generation bioenergy crops such a...

Accelerating forest growth enhancement due to climate and atmospheric changes in British Colombia, Canada over 1956-2001.

PubMed

Wu, Chaoyang; Hember, Robbie A; Chen, Jing M; Kurz, Werner A; Price, David T; Boisvenue, Céline; Gonsamo, Alemu; Ju, Weimin

2014-03-25

Changes in climate and atmospheric CO2 and nitrogen (N) over the last several decades have induced significant effects on forest carbon (C) cycling. However, contributions of individual factors are largely unknown because of the lack of long observational data and the undifferentiating between intrinsic factors and external forces in current ecosystem models. Using over four decades (1956-2001) of forest inventory data at 3432 permanent samples in maritime and boreal regions of British Columbia (B.C.), Canada, growth enhancements were reconstructed and partitioned into contributions of climate, CO2 and N after removal of age effects. We found that climate change contributed a particularly large amount (over 70%) of the accumulated growth enhancement, while the remaining was attributed to CO2 and N, respectively. We suggest that climate warming is contributing a widespread growth enhancement in B.C.'s forests, but ecosystem models should consider CO2 and N fertilization effects to fully explain inventory-based observations.

GPU-accelerated atmospheric chemical kinetics in the ECHAM/MESSy (EMAC) Earth system model (version 2.52)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alvanos, Michail; Christoudias, Theodoros

2017-10-01

This paper presents an application of GPU accelerators in Earth system modeling. We focus on atmospheric chemical kinetics, one of the most computationally intensive tasks in climate-chemistry model simulations. We developed a software package that automatically generates CUDA kernels to numerically integrate atmospheric chemical kinetics in the global climate model ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC), used to study climate change and air quality scenarios. A source-to-source compiler outputs a CUDA-compatible kernel by parsing the FORTRAN code generated by the Kinetic PreProcessor (KPP) general analysis tool. All Rosenbrock methods that are available in the KPP numerical library are supported.Performance evaluation, using Fermi and Pascal CUDA-enabled GPU accelerators, shows achieved speed-ups of 4. 5 × and 20. 4 × , respectively, of the kernel execution time. A node-to-node real-world production performance comparison shows a 1. 75 × speed-up over the non-accelerated application using the KPP three-stage Rosenbrock solver. We provide a detailed description of the code optimizations used to improve the performance including memory optimizations, control code simplification, and reduction of idle time. The accuracy and correctness of the accelerated implementation are evaluated by comparing to the CPU-only code of the application. The median relative difference is found to be less than 0.000000001 % when comparing the output of the accelerated kernel the CPU-only code.The approach followed, including the computational workload division, and the developed GPU solver code can potentially be used as the basis for hardware acceleration of numerous geoscientific models that rely on KPP for atmospheric chemical kinetics applications.

NASA Earth Exchange (NEX) Supporting Analyses for National Climate Assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nemani, R. R.; Thrasher, B. L.; Wang, W.; Lee, T. J.; Melton, F. S.; Dungan, J. L.; Michaelis, A.

2015-12-01

The NASA Earth Exchange (NEX) is a collaborative computing platform that has been developed with the objective of bringing scientists together with the software tools, massive global datasets, and supercomputing resources necessary to accelerate research in Earth systems science and global change. NEX supports several research projects that are closely related with the National Climate Assessment including the generation of high-resolution climate projections, identification of trends and extremes in climate variables and the evaluation of their impacts on regional carbon/water cycles and biodiversity, the development of land-use management and adaptation strategies for climate-change scenarios, and even the exploration of climate mitigation through geo-engineering. Scientists also use the large collection of satellite data on NEX to conduct research on quantifying spatial and temporal changes in land surface processes in response to climate and land-cover-land-use changes. Researchers, leveraging NEX's massive compute/storage resources, have used statistical techniques to downscale the coarse-resolution CMIP5 projections to fulfill the demands of the community for a wide range of climate change impact analyses. The DCP-30 (Downscaled Climate Projections at 30 arcsecond) for the conterminous US at monthly, ~1km resolution and the GDDP (Global Daily Downscaled Projections) for the entire world at daily, 25km resolution are now widely used in climate research and applications, as well as for communicating climate change. In order to serve a broader community, the NEX team in collaboration with Amazon, Inc, created the OpenNEX platform. OpenNEX provides ready access to NEX data holdings, including the NEX-DCP30 and GDDP datasets along with a number of pertinent analysis tools and workflows on the AWS infrastructure in the form of publicly available, self contained, fully functional Amazon Machine Images (AMI's) for anyone interested in global climate change.

Extreme climate events counteract the effects of climate and land-use changes in Alpine treelines

PubMed Central

Barros, Ceres; Guéguen, Maya; Douzet, Rolland; Carboni, Marta; Boulangeat, Isabelle; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.; Münkemüller, Tamara; Thuiller, Wilfried

2017-01-01

Summary 1. Climate change and extreme events, such as drought, threaten ecosystems worldwide and in particular mountain ecosystems, where species often live at their environmental tolerance limits. In the European Alps, plant communities are also influenced by land-use abandonment leading to woody encroachment of subalpine and alpine grasslands. 2. In this study, we explored how the forest–grassland ecotone of Alpine treelines will respond to gradual climate warming, drought events and land-use change in terms of forest expansion rates, taxonomic diversity and functional composition. We used a previously validated dynamic vegetation model, FATE-HD, parameterised for plant communities in the Ecrins National Park in the French Alps. 3. Our results showed that intense drought counteracted the forest expansion at higher elevations driven by land-use abandonment and climate change, especially when combined with high drought frequency (occurring every 2 or less than 2 years). 4. Furthermore, intense and frequent drought accelerated the rates of taxonomic change and resulted in overall higher taxonomic spatial heterogeneity of the ecotone than would be expected under gradual climate and land-use changes only. 5. Synthesis and applications. The results from our model show that intense and frequent drought counteracts forest expansion driven by climate and land-use changes in the forest–grassland ecotone of Alpine treelines. We argue that land-use planning must consider the effects of extreme events, such as drought, as well as climate and land-use changes, since extreme events might interfere with trends predicted under gradual climate warming and agricultural abandonment. PMID:28670002

On the Hiatus in the Acceleration of Tropical Upwelling Since the Beginning of the 21st Century

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Aschmann, J.; Burrows, J. P.; Gebhardt, C.; Rozanov, A.; Hommel, R.; Weber, M.; Thompson, A. M.

2014-01-01

Chemistry-climate models predict an acceleration of the upwelling branch of the Brewer-Dobson circulation as a consequence of increasing global surface temperatures, resulting from elevated levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases. The observed decrease of ozone in the tropical lower stratosphere during the last decades of the 20th century is consistent with the anticipated acceleration of upwelling. However, more recent satellite observations of ozone reveal that this decrease has unexpectedly stopped in the first decade of the 21st century, challenging the implicit assumption of a continuous acceleration of tropical upwelling. In this study we use three decades of chemistry transport-model simulations (1980-2013) to investigate this phenomenon and resolve this apparent contradiction. Our model reproduces the observed tropical lower stratosphere ozone record, showing a significant decrease in the early period followed by a statistically robust trend-change after 2002. We demonstrate that this trend-change is correlated with corresponding changes in the vertical transport and conclude that a hiatus in the acceleration of tropical upwelling occurred during the last decade.

Global lake evaporation accelerated by changes in surface energy allocation in a warmer climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Wei; Lee, Xuhui; Xiao, Wei; Liu, Shoudong; Schultz, Natalie; Wang, Yongwei; Zhang, Mi; Zhao, Lei

2018-06-01

Lake evaporation is a sensitive indicator of the hydrological response to climate change. Variability in annual lake evaporation has been assumed to be controlled primarily by the incoming surface solar radiation. Here we report simulations with a numerical model of lake surface fluxes, with input data based on a high-emissions climate change scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5). In our simulations, the global annual lake evaporation increases by 16% by the end of the century, despite little change in incoming solar radiation at the surface. We attribute about half of this projected increase to two effects: periods of ice cover are shorter in a warmer climate and the ratio of sensible to latent heat flux decreases, thus channelling more energy into evaporation. At low latitudes, annual lake evaporation is further enhanced because the lake surface warms more slowly than the air, leading to more long-wave radiation energy available for evaporation. We suggest that an analogous change in the ratio of sensible to latent heat fluxes in the open ocean can help to explain some of the spread among climate models in terms of their sensitivity of precipitation to warming. We conclude that an accurate prediction of the energy balance at the Earth's surface is crucial for evaluating the hydrological response to climate change.

Climate-driven speedup of alpine treeline forest growth in the Tianshan Mountains, Northwestern China.

PubMed

Qi, Zhaohuan; Liu, Hongyan; Wu, Xiuchen; Hao, Qian

2015-02-01

Forest growth is sensitive to interannual climatic change in the alpine treeline ecotone (ATE). Whether the alpine treeline ecotone shares a similar pattern of forest growth with lower elevational closed forest belt (CFB) under changing climate remains unclear. Here, we reported an unprecedented acceleration of Picea schrenkiana forest growth since 1960s in the ATE of Tianshan Mountains, northwestern China by a stand-total sampling along six altitudinal transects with three plots in each transect: one from the ATE between the treeline and the forest line, and the other two from the CFB. All the sampled P. schrenkiana forest patches show a higher growth speed after 1960 and, comparatively, forest growth in the CFB has sped up much slower than that in the ATE. The speedup of forest growth at the ATE is mainly accounted for by climate factors, with increasing temperature suggested to be the primary driver. Stronger water deficit as well as more competition within the CFB might have restricted forest growth there more than that within the ATE, implying biotic factors were also significant for the accelerated forest growth in the ATE, which should be excluded from simulations and predictions of warming-induced treeline dynamics. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Global assessment of experimental climate warming on tundra vegetation: heterogeneity over space and time.

PubMed

Elmendorf, Sarah C; Henry, Gregory H R; Hollister, Robert D; Björk, Robert G; Bjorkman, Anne D; Callaghan, Terry V; Collier, Laura Siegwart; Cooper, Elisabeth J; Cornelissen, Johannes H C; Day, Thomas A; Fosaa, Anna Maria; Gould, William A; Grétarsdóttir, Járngerður; Harte, John; Hermanutz, Luise; Hik, David S; Hofgaard, Annika; Jarrad, Frith; Jónsdóttir, Ingibjörg Svala; Keuper, Frida; Klanderud, Kari; Klein, Julia A; Koh, Saewan; Kudo, Gaku; Lang, Simone I; Loewen, Val; May, Jeremy L; Mercado, Joel; Michelsen, Anders; Molau, Ulf; Myers-Smith, Isla H; Oberbauer, Steven F; Pieper, Sara; Post, Eric; Rixen, Christian; Robinson, Clare H; Schmidt, Niels Martin; Shaver, Gaius R; Stenström, Anna; Tolvanen, Anne; Totland, Orjan; Troxler, Tiffany; Wahren, Carl-Henrik; Webber, Patrick J; Welker, Jeffery M; Wookey, Philip A

2012-02-01

Understanding the sensitivity of tundra vegetation to climate warming is critical to forecasting future biodiversity and vegetation feedbacks to climate. In situ warming experiments accelerate climate change on a small scale to forecast responses of local plant communities. Limitations of this approach include the apparent site-specificity of results and uncertainty about the power of short-term studies to anticipate longer term change. We address these issues with a synthesis of 61 experimental warming studies, of up to 20 years duration, in tundra sites worldwide. The response of plant groups to warming often differed with ambient summer temperature, soil moisture and experimental duration. Shrubs increased with warming only where ambient temperature was high, whereas graminoids increased primarily in the coldest study sites. Linear increases in effect size over time were frequently observed. There was little indication of saturating or accelerating effects, as would be predicted if negative or positive vegetation feedbacks were common. These results indicate that tundra vegetation exhibits strong regional variation in response to warming, and that in vulnerable regions, cumulative effects of long-term warming on tundra vegetation - and associated ecosystem consequences - have the potential to be much greater than we have observed to date. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

Holocene alluvium around Lefkosia (Nicosia), Cyprus: An archive of land-use, tectonic processes, and climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Newell, Wayne L.; Stone, B.; Harrison, R.; ,

2004-01-01

Holocene alluvium of the Pedhicos River around Lefkosia (Nicosia), Cyprus, was studied. Alluvial stratigraphy was found to present serial flood deposits underlying river terraces and an extensive alluvial fan. It was found that the stratigraphy and geomorphology of the alluvium can be interpreted to distinguish not only the effects of climate change, but also land-use change, and the impact of particular engineering works. It was suggested that details of the physical properties of the flood deposit sequences and paleosols can contribute to modeling various geophysical and engineering properties and in predicting response to vertical acceleration during earthquakes.

[Sowing date of corn in semiarid region of Jilin Province, Northeast China in adapting to climate change].

PubMed

Jin, Ying-Hua; Zhou, Dao-Wei; Qin, Li-Jie

2012-10-01

Under the background of global climate change, the climate in semiarid region of west Jilin Province changed greatly, producing a profound impact on the corn production in this region. In this study, the corn seeds were under three treatments (accelerating germination at 10 and 25 degrees C, and dry seeds), and a field experiment with early sowing and traditional sowing was conducted in 2008 to investigate the effects of early sowing these seeds on the seedling emergence, growth, and yield, and compare the effects of early sowing and traditional sowing dates on the corn production and yield. In 1961-2010, the first day of the growth season of corn in semiarid region of west Jilin Province was advanced, the air temperature increased significantly, and the precipitation displayed a decreasing trend. At present, the corn sowing date in this region could be advanced to 11th, April. Accelerating germination at 10 degrees C, directly sowing dry seeds, and bed-irrigation sowing all benefited the seedling emergence and cold resistance of early-sown seeds, and the corn plant height and leaf area under early sowing were significantly higher, with the yield increased by 35% - 48%, compared with those under traditional sowing.

Environmental and economic risks assessment under climate changes for three land uses scenarios analysis across Teshio watershed, northernmost of Japan.

PubMed

Fan, Min; Shibata, Hideaki; Chen, Li

2017-12-01

Land use and climate changes affect on the economy and environment with different patterns and magnitudes in the watershed. This study used risk analysis model stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) to evaluate economic and environmental risks caused by four climate change scenarios (baseline, small-, mid- and large changes) and three land uses (paddy dominated, paddy-farmland mixture and farmland dominated for agriculture) in Teshio watershed in northern Hokkaido, Japan. Under the baseline climate conditions, the lower ranking of economic income of crop yield and higher ranking of pollutant load from agricultural land were both predicted in paddy dominated for agriculture, suggesting that the paddy dominated system caused higher risks of economic and environmental variables compared to other two land uses. Increase of temperature and precipitation increased crop yields under all three climate changes which resulted in increase of the ranking of economic income, indicating that those climate changes could reduce economic risk. The increased temperature and precipitation also accelerated mineralization of organic nutrient and nutrient leaching to river course of Teshio which resulted in increase of the ranking of pollutant load, suggesting that those climate changes could lead to more environmental risk. The rankings of economic income in mid- and large changes of climate were lower than that in small change of climate under paddy-farmland mixture and farmland dominated systems due to decrease of crop yield, suggesting that climate change led to more economic risk. In summary, the results suggested that increase in temperature and precipitation caused higher risks of both economic and environmental perspectives, and the impacts was higher than those of land use changes in the studied watershed. Those findings would help producers and watershed managers to measure the tradeoffs between environmental protection and agricultural economic development for making decision under land use and climate changes. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Climate Change Potential Impacts on the Built Environment and Possible Adaptation Strategies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Quattrochi, Dale A.

2014-01-01

The built environment consists of components that exist at a range of scales from small (e.g., houses, shopping malls) to large (e.g., transportation networks) to highly modified landscapes such as cities. Thus, the impacts of climate change on the built environment may have a multitude of effects on humans and the land. The impact of climate change may be exacerbated by the interaction of different events that singly may be minor, but together may have a synergistic set of impacts that are significant. Also, mechanisms may exist wherein the built environment, particularly in the form of cities, may affect weather and the climate on local and regional scales. Hence, a city may be able to cope with prolonged heat waves, but if this is combined with severe drought, the overall result could be significant or even catastrophic, as accelerating demand for energy to cooling taxes water supplies needed both for energy supply and municipal water needs. This presentation surveys potential climate change impacts on the built environment from the perspective of the National Climate Assessment, and explores adaptation measures that can be employed to mitigate these impacts.

Climate drives shifts in grass reproductive phenology across the western USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Munson, Seth M.; Long, A. Lexine

2016-01-01

The capacity of grass species to alter their reproductive timing across space and through time can indicate their ability to cope with environmental variability and help predict their future performance under climate change.We determined the long-term (1895–2013) relationship between flowering times of grass species and climate in space and time using herbarium records across ecoregions of the western USA.There was widespread concordance of C3 grasses accelerating flowering time and general delays for C4 grasses with increasing mean annual temperature, with the largest changes for annuals and individuals occurring in more northerly, wetter ecoregions. Flowering time was delayed for most grass species with increasing mean annual precipitation across space, while phenology–precipitation relationships through time were more mixed.Our results suggest that the phenology of most grass species has the capacity to respond to increases in temperature and altered precipitation expected with climate change, but weak relationships for some species in time suggest that climate tracking via migration or adaptation may be required. Divergence in phenological responses among grass functional types, species, and ecoregions suggests that climate change will have unequal effects across the western USA.

Coastal Wetland Ecosystem Responses to Climate Change: the Role of Macroclimatic Drivers along the Northern Gulf of Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Osland, M. J.; Enwright, N.; Day, R. H.; Gabler, C. A.; Stagg, C. L.; From, A. S.

2014-12-01

Across the globe, macroclimatic drivers greatly influence coastal wetland ecosystem structure and function. However, changing macroclimatic conditions are rarely incorporated into coastal wetland vulnerability assessments. Here, we quantify the influence of macroclimatic drivers upon coastal wetland ecosystems along the Northern Gulf of Mexico (NGOM) coast. From a global perspective, the NGOM coast provides several excellent opportunities to examine the effects of climate change upon coastal wetlands. The abundant coastal wetland ecosystems in the region span two major climatic gradients: (1) a winter temperature gradient that crosses temperate to tropical climatic zones; and (2) a precipitation gradient that crosses humid to semi-arid zones. We present analyses where we used geospatial data (historical climate, hydrology, and coastal wetland coverage) and field data (soil, elevation, and plant community composition and structure) to quantify climate-mediated ecological transitions. We identified winter climate and precipitation-based thresholds that separate mangrove forests from salt marshes and vegetated wetlands from unvegetated wetlands, respectively. We used simple distribution and abundance models to evaluate the potential ecological effects of alternative future climate change scenarios. Our results illustrate and quantify the importance of macroclimatic drivers and indicate that climate change could result in landscape-scale changes in coastal wetland ecosystem structure and function. These macroclimate-mediated ecological changes could affect the supply of some ecosystem goods and services as well as the resilience of these ecosystems to stressors, including accelerated sea level rise. Collectively, our findings highlight the importance of incorporating macroclimatic drivers within future-focused coastal wetland vulnerability assessments.

2700 years of Mediterranean environmental change in central Italy: a synthesis of sedimentary and cultural records to interpret past impacts of climate on society

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mensing, Scott A.; Tunno, Irene; Sagnotti, Leonardo; Florindo, Fabio; Noble, Paula; Archer, Claire; Zimmerman, Susan; Pavón-Carrasco, Francisco Javier; Cifani, Gabriele; Passigli, Susanna; Piovesan, Gianluca

2015-05-01

Abrupt climate change in the past is thought to have disrupted societies by accelerating environmental degradation, potentially leading to cultural collapse. Linking climate change directly to societal disruption is challenging because socioeconomic factors also play a large role, with climate being secondary or sometimes inconsequential. Combining paleolimnologic, historical, and archaeological methods provides for a more secure basis for interpreting the past impacts of climate on society. We present pollen, non-pollen palynomorph, geochemical, paleomagnetic and sedimentary data from a high-resolution 2700 yr lake sediment core from central Italy and compare these data with local historical documents and archeological surveys to reconstruct a record of environmental change in relation to socioeconomic history and climatic fluctuations. Here we document cases in which environmental change is strongly linked to changes in local land management practices in the absence of clear climatic change, as well as examples when climate change appears to have been a strong catalyst that resulted in significant environmental change that impacted local communities. During the Imperial Roman period, despite a long period of stable, mild climate, and a large urban population in nearby Rome, our site shows only limited evidence for environmental degradation. Warm and mild climate during the Medieval Warm period, on the other hand, led to widespread deforestation and erosion. The ability of the Romans to utilize imported resources through an extensive trade network may have allowed for preservation of the environment near the Roman capital, whereas during medieval time, the need to rely on local resources led to environmental degradation. Cool wet climate during the Little Ice Age led to a breakdown in local land use practices, widespread land abandonment and rapid reforestation. Our results present a high-resolution regional case study that explores the effect of climate change on society for an under-documented region of Europe.

The evolution of climatic niches in squamate reptiles.

PubMed

Pie, Marcio R; Campos, Leonardo L F; Meyer, Andreas L S; Duran, Andressa

2017-07-12

Despite the remarkable diversity found in squamate reptiles, most of their species tend to be found in warm/dry environments, suggesting that climatic requirements played a crucial role in their diversification, yet little is known about the evolution of their climatic niches. In this study, we integrate climatic information associated with the geographical distribution of 1882 squamate species and their phylogenetic relationships to investigate the tempo and mode of climatic niche evolution in squamates, both over time and among lineages. We found that changes in climatic niche dynamics were pronounced over their recent squamate evolutionary history, and we identified extensive evidence for rate heterogeneity in squamate climatic niche evolution. Most rate shifts involved accelerations, particularly over the past 50 Myr. Most squamates occupy similar regions of the climatic niche space, with only a few lineages diversifying into colder and humid climatic conditions. The changes from arid to mesic conditions in some regions of the globe may have provided opportunities for climatic niche evolution, although most lineages tended to remain near their ancestral niche. Variation in rates of climatic niche evolution seems common, particularly in response to the availability of new climatic conditions over evolutionary time. © 2017 The Author(s).

Responses of wind erosion to climate-induced vegetation changes on the Colorado Plateau.

PubMed

Munson, Seth M; Belnap, Jayne; Okin, Gregory S

2011-03-08

Projected increases in aridity throughout the southwestern United States due to anthropogenic climate change will likely cause reductions in perennial vegetation cover, which leaves soil surfaces exposed to erosion. Accelerated rates of dust emission from wind erosion have large implications for ecosystems and human well-being, yet there is poor understanding of the sources and magnitude of dust emission in a hotter and drier climate. Here we use a two-stage approach to compare the susceptibility of grasslands and three different shrublands to wind erosion on the Colorado Plateau and demonstrate how climate can indirectly moderate the magnitude of aeolian sediment flux through different responses of dominant plants in these communities. First, using results from 20 y of vegetation monitoring, we found perennial grass cover in grasslands declined with increasing mean annual temperature in the previous year, whereas shrub cover in shrublands either showed no change or declined as temperature increased, depending on the species. Second, we used these vegetation monitoring results and measurements of soil stability as inputs into a field-validated wind erosion model and found that declines in perennial vegetation cover coupled with disturbance to biological soil crust resulted in an exponential increase in modeled aeolian sediment flux. Thus the effects of increased temperature on perennial plant cover and the correlation of declining plant cover with increased aeolian flux strongly suggest that sustained drought conditions across the southwest will accelerate the likelihood of dust production in the future on disturbed soil surfaces.

Responses of wind erosion to climate-induced vegetation changes on the Colorado Plateau

USGS Publications Warehouse

Munson, Seth M.; Belnap, Jayne; Okin, Gregory S.

2011-01-01

Projected increases in aridity throughout the southwestern United States due to anthropogenic climate change will likely cause reductions in perennial vegetation cover, which leaves soil surfaces exposed to erosion. Accelerated rates of dust emission from wind erosion have large implications for ecosystems and human well-being, yet there is poor understanding of the sources and magnitude of dust emission in a hotter and drier climate. Here we use a two-stage approach to compare the susceptibility of grasslands and three different shrublands to wind erosion on the Colorado Plateau and demonstrate how climate can indirectly moderate the magnitude of aeolian sediment flux through different responses of dominant plants in these communities. First, using results from 20 y of vegetation monitoring, we found perennial grass cover in grasslands declined with increasing mean annual temperature in the previous year, whereas shrub cover in shrublands either showed no change or declined as temperature increased, depending on the species. Second, we used these vegetation monitoring results and measurements of soil stability as inputs into a field-validated wind erosion model and found that declines in perennial vegetation cover coupled with disturbance to biological soil crust resulted in an exponential increase in modeled aeolian sediment flux. Thus the effects of increased temperature on perennial plant cover and the correlation of declining plant cover with increased aeolian flux strongly suggest that sustained drought conditions across the southwest will accelerate the likelihood of dust production in the future on disturbed soil surfaces.

Responses of wind erosion to climate-induced vegetation changes on the Colorado Plateau

PubMed Central

Munson, Seth M.; Belnap, Jayne; Okin, Gregory S.

2011-01-01

Projected increases in aridity throughout the southwestern United States due to anthropogenic climate change will likely cause reductions in perennial vegetation cover, which leaves soil surfaces exposed to erosion. Accelerated rates of dust emission from wind erosion have large implications for ecosystems and human well-being, yet there is poor understanding of the sources and magnitude of dust emission in a hotter and drier climate. Here we use a two-stage approach to compare the susceptibility of grasslands and three different shrublands to wind erosion on the Colorado Plateau and demonstrate how climate can indirectly moderate the magnitude of aeolian sediment flux through different responses of dominant plants in these communities. First, using results from 20 y of vegetation monitoring, we found perennial grass cover in grasslands declined with increasing mean annual temperature in the previous year, whereas shrub cover in shrublands either showed no change or declined as temperature increased, depending on the species. Second, we used these vegetation monitoring results and measurements of soil stability as inputs into a field-validated wind erosion model and found that declines in perennial vegetation cover coupled with disturbance to biological soil crust resulted in an exponential increase in modeled aeolian sediment flux. Thus the effects of increased temperature on perennial plant cover and the correlation of declining plant cover with increased aeolian flux strongly suggest that sustained drought conditions across the southwest will accelerate the likelihood of dust production in the future on disturbed soil surfaces. PMID:21368143

Abrupt climate change: can society cope?

PubMed

Hulme, Mike

2003-09-15

Consideration of abrupt climate change has generally been incorporated neither in analyses of climate-change impacts nor in the design of climate adaptation strategies. Yet the possibility of abrupt climate change triggered by human perturbation of the climate system is used to support the position of both those who urge stronger and earlier mitigative action than is currently being contemplated and those who argue that the unknowns in the Earth system are too large to justify such early action. This paper explores the question of abrupt climate change in terms of its potential implications for society, focusing on the UK and northwest Europe in particular. The nature of abrupt climate change and the different ways in which it has been defined and perceived are examined. Using the example of the collapse of the thermohaline circulation (THC), the suggested implications for society of abrupt climate change are reviewed; previous work has been largely speculative and has generally considered the implications only from economic and ecological perspectives. Some observations about the implications from a more social and behavioural science perspective are made. If abrupt climate change simply implies changes in the occurrence or intensity of extreme weather events, or an accelerated unidirectional change in climate, the design of adaptation to climate change can proceed within the existing paradigm, with appropriate adjustments. Limits to adaptation in some sectors or regions may be reached, and the costs of appropriate adaptive behaviour may be large, but strategy can develop on the basis of a predicted long-term unidirectional change in climate. It would be more challenging, however, if abrupt climate change implied a directional change in climate, as, for example, may well occur in northwest Europe following a collapse of the THC. There are two fundamental problems for society associated with such an outcome: first, the future changes in climate currently being anticipated and prepared for may reverse and, second, the probability of such a scenario occurring remains fundamentally unknown. The implications of both problems for climate policy and for decision making have not been researched. It is premature to argue therefore that abrupt climate change - in the sense referred to here - imposes unacceptable costs on society or the world economy, represents a catastrophic impact of climate change or constitutes a dangerous change in climate that should be avoided at all reasonable cost. We conclude by examining the implications of this contention for future research and policy formation.

Evaluating the relative impact of climate and economic changes on forest and agricultural ecosystem services in mountain regions.

PubMed

Briner, Simon; Elkin, Ché; Huber, Robert

2013-11-15

Provisioning of ecosystem services (ES) in mountainous regions is predicted to be influenced by i) the direct biophysical impacts of climate change, ii) climate mediated land use change, and iii) socioeconomic driven changes in land use. The relative importance and the spatial distribution of these factors on forest and agricultural derived ES, however, is unclear, making the implementation of ES management schemes difficult. Using an integrated economic-ecological modeling framework, we evaluated the impact of these driving forces on the provision of forest and agricultural ES in a mountain region of southern Switzerland. Results imply that forest ES will be strongly influenced by the direct impact of climate change, but that changes in land use will have a comparatively small impact. The simulation of direct impacts of climate change affects forest ES at all elevations, while land use changes can only be found at high elevations. In contrast, changes to agricultural ES were found to be primarily due to shifts in economic conditions that alter land use and land management. The direct influence of climate change on agriculture is only predicted to be substantial at high elevations, while socioeconomic driven shifts in land use are projected to affect agricultural ES at all elevations. Our simulation results suggest that policy schemes designed to mitigate the negative impact of climate change on forests should focus on suitable adaptive management plans, accelerating adaptation processes for currently forested areas. To maintain provision of agricultural ES policy needs to focus on economic conditions rather than on supporting adaptation to new climate. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Observing anomalies in the deglaciation of Greenland by GRACE and GNET GPS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knudsen, Per; Khan, Shfaqat Abbas

2017-04-01

Between the start of 2003 and the middle 2013, the total mass of ice in Greenland declined at an accelerating rate, and this rate increases nearly constantly of about 24 Gt per year. Then, a dramatic reversal occurred, and almost no additional ice mass was lost in the subsequent two years. In 2015 the melting had resumed reducing the ice mass in Greenland. We use observations from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and a network of Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers to study both the decade of accelerating ice loss, and the subsequent 'pause', focusing on the space-time structure of changes in ice mass. We use a spatial basis set of spherical Legendre polynomials, and assume that the temporal variation in mass can be expressed using a 4-term Fourier series (i.e. an annual cycle) superimposed on a polynomial in time (i.e. a trend). We show that the spatial pattern of the sustained, decade-long acceleration and of the mass anomaly associated with the melt anomalies are very similar, and so manifest the footprint of the ice sheet's sensitivity to climate change at the wavelengths resolved by GRACE.

Observing the 2013 and other anomalies in the deglaciation of Greenland by GRACE and GNET GPS.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knudsen, P.; Madsen, F. B.; Bevis, M. G.; Khan, S. A.

2016-12-01

Between the start of 2003 and the middle 2013, the total mass of ice in Greenland declined at an accelerating rate, and this rate increases nearly constantly of about 24 Gt per year. Then, a dramatic reversal occurred, and almost no additional ice mass was lost in the subsequent two years. In 2015 the melting had resumed reducing the ice mass in Greenland. We use observations from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and a network of Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers to study both the decade of accelerating ice loss, and the subsequent `pause', focusing on the space-time structure of changes in ice mass. We use a spatial basis set of spherical Legendre polynomials, and assume that the temporal variation in mass can be expressed using a 4-term Fourier series (i.e. an annual cycle) superimposed on a polynomial in time (i.e. a trend). We show that the spatial pattern of the sustained, decade-long acceleration and of the mass anomaly associated with the melt anomalies are very similar, and so manifest the footprint of the ice sheet's sensitivity to climate change at the wavelengths resolved by GRACE.

Live Fast, Die Young: Experimental Evidence of Population Extinction Risk due to Climate Change.

PubMed

Bestion, Elvire; Teyssier, Aimeric; Richard, Murielle; Clobert, Jean; Cote, Julien

2015-10-01

Evidence has accumulated in recent decades on the drastic impact of climate change on biodiversity. Warming temperatures have induced changes in species physiology, phenology, and have decreased body size. Such modifications can impact population dynamics and could lead to changes in life cycle and demography. More specifically, conceptual frameworks predict that global warming will severely threaten tropical ectotherms while temperate ectotherms should resist or even benefit from higher temperatures. However, experimental studies measuring the impacts of future warming trends on temperate ectotherms' life cycle and population persistence are lacking. Here we investigate the impacts of future climates on a model vertebrate ectotherm species using a large-scale warming experiment. We manipulated climatic conditions in 18 seminatural populations over two years to obtain a present climate treatment and a warm climate treatment matching IPCC predictions for future climate. Warmer temperatures caused a faster body growth, an earlier reproductive onset, and an increased voltinism, leading to a highly accelerated life cycle but also to a decrease in adult survival. A matrix population model predicts that warm climate populations in our experiment should go extinct in around 20 y. Comparing our experimental climatic conditions to conditions encountered by populations across Europe, we suggest that warming climates should threaten a significant number of populations at the southern range of the distribution. Our findings stress the importance of experimental approaches on the entire life cycle to more accurately predict population and species persistence in future climates.

Live Fast, Die Young: Experimental Evidence of Population Extinction Risk due to Climate Change

PubMed Central

Bestion, Elvire; Teyssier, Aimeric; Richard, Murielle; Clobert, Jean; Cote, Julien

2015-01-01

Evidence has accumulated in recent decades on the drastic impact of climate change on biodiversity. Warming temperatures have induced changes in species physiology, phenology, and have decreased body size. Such modifications can impact population dynamics and could lead to changes in life cycle and demography. More specifically, conceptual frameworks predict that global warming will severely threaten tropical ectotherms while temperate ectotherms should resist or even benefit from higher temperatures. However, experimental studies measuring the impacts of future warming trends on temperate ectotherms' life cycle and population persistence are lacking. Here we investigate the impacts of future climates on a model vertebrate ectotherm species using a large-scale warming experiment. We manipulated climatic conditions in 18 seminatural populations over two years to obtain a present climate treatment and a warm climate treatment matching IPCC predictions for future climate. Warmer temperatures caused a faster body growth, an earlier reproductive onset, and an increased voltinism, leading to a highly accelerated life cycle but also to a decrease in adult survival. A matrix population model predicts that warm climate populations in our experiment should go extinct in around 20 y. Comparing our experimental climatic conditions to conditions encountered by populations across Europe, we suggest that warming climates should threaten a significant number of populations at the southern range of the distribution. Our findings stress the importance of experimental approaches on the entire life cycle to more accurately predict population and species persistence in future climates. PMID:26501958

Climate change, fire management, and ecological services in the southwestern US

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hurteau, Matthew D.; Bradford, John B.; Fulé, Peter Z.; Taylor, Alan H.; Martin, Katherine L.

2014-01-01

The diverse forest types of the southwestern US are inseparable from fire. Across climate zones in California, Nevada, Arizona, and New Mexico, fire suppression has left many forest types out of sync with their historic fire regimes. As a result, high fuel loads place them at risk of severe fire, particularly as fire activity increases due to climate change. A legacy of fire exclusion coupled with a warming climate has led to increasingly large and severe wildfires in many southwest forest types. Climate change projections include an extended fire season length due to earlier snowmelt and a general drying trend due to rising temperatures. This suggests the future will be warmer and drier regardless of changes in precipitation. Hotter, drier conditions are likely to increase forest flammability, at least initially. Changes in climate alone have the potential to alter the distribution of vegetation types within the region, and climate-driven shifts in vegetation distribution are likely to be accelerated when coupled with stand-replacing fire. Regardless of the rate of change, the interaction of climate and fire and their effects on Southwest ecosystems will alter the provisioning of ecosystem services, including carbon storage and biodiversity. Interactions between climate, fire, and vegetation growth provide a source of great uncertainty in projecting future fire activity in the region, as post-fire forest recovery is strongly influenced by climate and subsequent fire frequency. Severe fire can be mitigated with fuels management including prescribed fire, thinning, and wildfire management, but new strategies are needed to ensure the effectiveness of treatments across landscapes. We review the current understanding of the relationship between fire and climate in the Southwest, both historical and projected. We then discuss the potential implications of climate change for fire management and examine the potential effects of climate change and fire on ecosystem services. We conclude with an assessment of the role of fire management in an increasingly flammable Southwest.

Science Support for Climate Change Adaptation in South Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Early, Laura M.; Harvey, Rebecca G.

2010-01-01

Earth's changing climate is among the foremost conservation challenges of the 21st century, threatening to permanently alter entire ecosystems and contribute to extinctions of species. Lying only a few feet above sea level and already suffering effects of anthropogenic stressors, south Florida's ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to negative impacts of climate change. Recent research accounting for the gravitational effects of melting ice sheets predicts that sea level rise on U.S. coastlines will be much higher than global averages (Gomez et al. 2010), and the Miami-Dade Climate Change Advisory Task Force predicts that local sea level rise will be at least 3 to 5 ft. (0.9 m to 1.5 m) by 2100 (MDCCATF 2008). In a 5 ft. scenario, up to 873 additional square miles of the Everglades would be inundated with saltwater (see maps below). Accelerated sea level rise is likely to be accompanied by increasing temperatures (IPCC 2007a) and more intense tropical storms and hurricanes (Webster et al. 2005). In addition, changes in amount, timing, and distribution of rainfall in south Florida may lead to more severe droughts and floods (SFWMD 2009).

The dynamics of climate-induced deglacial ice stream acceleration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robel, A.; Tziperman, E.

2015-12-01

Geological observations indicate that ice streams were a significant contributor to ice flow in the Laurentide Ice Sheet during the Last Glacial Maximum. Conceptual and simple model studies have also argued that the gradual development of ice streams increases the sensitivity of large ice sheets to weak climate forcing. In this study, we use an idealized configuration of the Parallel Ice Sheet Model to explore the role of ice streams in rapid deglaciation. In a growing ice sheet, ice streams develop gradually as the bed warms and the margin expands outward onto the continental shelf. Then, a weak change in equilibrium line altitude commensurate with Milankovitch forcing results in a rapid deglacial response, as ice stream acceleration leads to enhanced calving and surface melting at low elevations. We explain the dynamical mechanism that drives this ice stream acceleration and its broader applicability as a feedback for enhancing ice sheet decay in response to climate forcing. We show how our idealized ice sheet simulations match geomorphological observations of deglacial ice stream variability and previous model-data analyses. We conclude with observations on the potential for interaction between ice streams and other feedback mechanisms within the earth system.

Understanding global climate change: paleoclimate perspective from the world's highest mountains.

PubMed

Thompson, Lonnie G

2010-06-01

Glaciers are among the world's best recorders of, and first responders to, natural and anthropogenic climate change and provide a time perspective for current climatic and environmental variations. Over the last 50 years such records have been recovered from the polar regions as well as low-latitude, high-elevation ice fields. Analyses of these ice cores and of the glaciers from which they have been drilled have yielded three lines of evidence for past and present abrupt climate change: (1) the temperature and precipitation histories recorded in the glaciers as revealed by the climate records extracted from the ice cores; (2) the accelerating loss of the glaciers themselves; and (3) the uncovering of ancient fauna and flora from the margins of the glaciers as a result of their recent melting, thus illustrating the significance of the current ice loss. The current melting of high-altitude, low-latitude ice fields is consistent with model predictions for a vertical amplification of temperature in the tropics. The ongoing rapid retreat of the world's mountain glaciers, as well as the margins of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, is not only contributing to global sea level rise, but also threatening fresh-water supplies in many of the most populous regions. More recently, strong evidence has appeared for the acceleration of the rate of ice loss in the tropics, which especially presents a clear and present danger to water supplies for at-risk populations in South America and Asia. The human response to this issue, however, is not so clear, for although the evidence from both data and models becomes more compelling, the rate of global CO2 emissions continues to accelerate. Climatologically, we are in unfamiliar territory, and the world's ice cover is responding dramatically. The loss of glaciers, which can be viewed as the world's water towers, threatens water resources that are essential for hydroelectric power, crop irrigation, municipal water supplies, and even tourism. As these glaciers are disappearing, we are also losing very valuable paleoclimate archives.

Robust changes in the socio-climate risk over CONUS by mid 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ashfaq, M.; Rastogi, D.; Batibeniz, F.; Alifa, M.; Pagán, B. R.; Bonds, B. W.; Pal, J. S.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.; Preston, B. L.

2017-12-01

Using high-resolution near-term ensemble projections of hydro-climatic changes, we investigate impacts of climate change on natural and human systems across the CONUS. Climate projections are based a hybrid downscaling approach where a combination of regional and hydrological models are used to downscales 11 Global Climate Models from the 5th phase of Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project to 4km horizontal grid spacing for 41 years in the historical period (1965-2005) and 41 years in the near-term future period (2010-2050) under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. Should emissions continue to rise, climatic changes will likely intensify the regional hydrological cycle over CONUS through the acceleration of the historical trends in cold, warm and wet extremes. Our results show robust changes in the occurrence of severe weather conditions and in the likelihood of ice, freezing rain and snowstorms that may have disruptive impact on large human population across the U.S. More summer like conditions will also drive increase in cooling demands and a net increase in the energy consumption over many regions. We further use an integrated vulnerability index that combines human exposure to different climate extremes (hot, cold, wet and dry) and changes in socioeconomic pathways (due to changes in population and income levels), to reveal that future exposure to potentially damaging climatic conditions will likely increase manifold for population living in major urban centers in California, Texas, Florida, Michigan, Illinois and Northeast. With the current trajectory of emissions, these results warrant that a large human population across the U.S. may feel the impacts of climate change within its lifespan.

Carbon Lock-In: Barriers to the Deployment of Climate Change Mitigation Technologies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lapsa, Melissa Voss; Brown, Marilyn A.

The United States shares with many other countries the objective of stabilizing greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the Earth's atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous interference with the climate system. Many believe that accelerating the pace of technology improvement and deployment could significantly reduce the cost of achieving this goal. The critical role of new technologies is underscored by the fact that most anthropogenic greenhouse gases emitted over the next century will come from equipment and infrastructure built in the future. As a result, new technologies and fuels have the potential to transform the nation's energy system whilemore » meeting climate change as well as energy security and other goals.« less

[Stability of disintegration in health food].

PubMed

Ma, Lan; Zhao, Xin; Zhou, Shuang; Yang, Dajin

2012-11-01

To study the change of disintegration of different formulation samples which stored in the artificial climate box or room temperature and provide the technical support for health food monitoring. According to the method of Chinese Pharmacopoeia and British Pharmacopoeia. Appendix XII A. Disintegration 2010. Disintegration of the non-accelerate, accelerated after 1, 2 and 3 months samples were determined by the disintegrator, respectively. Sample properties, the ingredients of the samples, the proportions of the capsule and treatment methods have some effect on the stability of the disintegration. The disintegration time of health food will be changed particularly after they were accelerated under the condition of (38 +/- 1) degrees C/75% RH. Especially the disintegration time of soft capsules were significantly prolonged. The composition and properties of samples were the main factors that affected the disintegration.

Ecosystems and Human Health: Meeting Challenges through Integrated Research and Policy

EPA Science Inventory

Human activity is transforming the structure and function of Earth’s natural systems including its land cover, rivers, oceans, biogeochemical cycles, and climate system.  As this transformation accelerates, there is growing evidence that changes in the state of natural...

Biological invasions, ecological resilience and adaptive governance

EPA Science Inventory

In a world of increasing interconnections in global trade as well as rapid change in climate and land cover, the accelerating introduction and spread of invasive species is a critical concern due to associated negative social and ecological impacts, both real and perceived. Much...

Small species indicate big changes? Arctic report card

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

As Arctic climate warms, how will terrestrial ecosystems and the communities that they support respond in the coming decades? Small mammals including shrews and their associated parasites can serve as key indicators and proxies of accelerating perturbation, contributing to general models for anticip...

Sorghum as a Versatile Feedstock for Bioenergy Production

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

World economy development, population increase, and urban expansion accelerate the depletion of naturally preserved energy (fossil fuel), reduction in arable land, and trend of global climate change. Bioenergy, the forms of energy produced from materials of living organisms, holds special promise in...

Late Pleistocene climate change, nutrient cycling, and the megafaunal extinctions in North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faith, J. Tyler

2011-06-01

This study proposes an ecological mechanism for the terminal Pleistocene population collapse and subsequent extinction of North American megafauna. Observations of modern ecosystems indicate that feedback mechanisms between plant nutrient content, nitrogen cycling, and herbivore-plant interactions can vary between a nutrient accelerating mode favoring increased herbivore biomass and a nutrient decelerating mode characterized by reduced herbivore biomass. These alternate modes are determined largely by plant nitrogen content. Plant nitrogen content is known to be influenced by atmospheric CO 2 concentrations, temperature, and precipitation. It is argued that Lateglacial climate change, particularly increases in atmospheric CO 2, shifted herbivore-ecosystem dynamics from a nutrient accelerating mode to a nutrient decelerating mode at the end of the Pleistocene, leading to reduced megafaunal population densities. An examination of Sporormiella records - a proxy for megaherbivore biomass - indicates that megafaunal populations collapsed first in the east and later in the west, possibly reflecting regional differences in precipitation or vegetation structure. The fortuitous intersection of the climatically driven nitrogen sink, followed by any one or combination of subsequent anthropogenic, environmental, or extra-terrestrial mechanisms could explain why extinctions took place at the end of the Pleistocene rather than during previous glacial-interglacial cycles.

How will melting of ice affect volcanic hazards in the twenty-first century?

PubMed

Tuffen, Hugh

2010-05-28

Glaciers and ice sheets on many active volcanoes are rapidly receding. There is compelling evidence that melting of ice during the last deglaciation triggered a dramatic acceleration in volcanic activity. Will melting of ice this century, which is associated with climate change, similarly affect volcanic activity and associated hazards? This paper provides a critical overview of the evidence that current melting of ice will increase the frequency or size of hazardous volcanic eruptions. Many aspects of the link between ice recession and accelerated volcanic activity remain poorly understood. Key questions include how rapidly volcanic systems react to melting of ice, whether volcanoes are sensitive to small changes in ice thickness and how recession of ice affects the generation, storage and eruption of magma at stratovolcanoes. A greater frequency of collapse events at glaciated stratovolcanoes can be expected in the near future, and there is strong potential for positive feedbacks between melting of ice and enhanced volcanism. Nonetheless, much further research is required to remove current uncertainties about the implications of climate change for volcanic hazards in the twenty-first century.

Disturbances catalyze the adaptation of forest ecosystems to changing climate conditions

PubMed Central

Thom, Dominik; Rammer, Werner; Seidl, Rupert

2016-01-01

The rates of anthropogenic climate change substantially exceed those at which forest ecosystems – dominated by immobile, long-lived organisms – are able to adapt. The resulting maladaptation of forests has potentially detrimental effects on ecosystem functioning. Furthermore, as many forest-dwelling species are highly dependent on the prevailing tree species, a delayed response of the latter to a changing climate can contribute to an extinction debt and mask climate-induced biodiversity loss. However, climate change will likely also intensify forest disturbances. Here, we tested the hypothesis that disturbances foster the reorganization of ecosystems and catalyze the adaptation of forest composition to climate change. Our specific objectives were (i) to quantify the rate of autonomous forest adaptation to climate change, (ii) examine the role of disturbance in the adaptation process, and (iii) investigate spatial differences in climate-induced species turnover in an unmanaged mountain forest landscape (Kalkalpen National Park, Austria). Simulations with a process-based forest landscape model were performed for 36 unique combinations of climate and disturbance scenarios over 1000 years. We found that climate change strongly favored European beech and oak species (currently prevailing in mid- to low-elevation areas), with novel species associations emerging on the landscape. Yet, it took between 357 and 706 years before the landscape attained a dynamic equilibrium with the climate system. Disturbances generally catalyzed adaptation and decreased the time needed to attain equilibrium by up to 211 years. However, while increasing disturbance frequency and severity accelerated adaptation, increasing disturbance size had the opposite effect. Spatial analyses suggest that particularly the lowest and highest elevation areas will be hotspots of future species change. We conclude that the growing maladaptation of forests to climate and the long lead times of autonomous adaptation need to be considered more explicitly in the ongoing efforts to safeguard biodiversity and ecosystem services provisioning. PMID:27633953

Disturbances catalyze the adaptation of forest ecosystems to changing climate conditions.

PubMed

Thom, Dominik; Rammer, Werner; Seidl, Rupert

2017-01-01

The rates of anthropogenic climate change substantially exceed those at which forest ecosystems - dominated by immobile, long-lived organisms - are able to adapt. The resulting maladaptation of forests has potentially detrimental effects on ecosystem functioning. Furthermore, as many forest-dwelling species are highly dependent on the prevailing tree species, a delayed response of the latter to a changing climate can contribute to an extinction debt and mask climate-induced biodiversity loss. However, climate change will likely also intensify forest disturbances. Here, we tested the hypothesis that disturbances foster the reorganization of ecosystems and catalyze the adaptation of forest composition to climate change. Our specific objectives were (i) to quantify the rate of autonomous forest adaptation to climate change, (ii) examine the role of disturbance in the adaptation process, and (iii) investigate spatial differences in climate-induced species turnover in an unmanaged mountain forest landscape (Kalkalpen National Park, Austria). Simulations with a process-based forest landscape model were performed for 36 unique combinations of climate and disturbance scenarios over 1000 years. We found that climate change strongly favored European beech and oak species (currently prevailing in mid- to low-elevation areas), with novel species associations emerging on the landscape. Yet, it took between 357 and 706 years before the landscape attained a dynamic equilibrium with the climate system. Disturbances generally catalyzed adaptation and decreased the time needed to attain equilibrium by up to 211 years. However, while increasing disturbance frequency and severity accelerated adaptation, increasing disturbance size had the opposite effect. Spatial analyses suggest that particularly the lowest and highest elevation areas will be hotspots of future species change. We conclude that the growing maladaptation of forests to climate and the long lead times of autonomous adaptation need to be considered more explicitly in the ongoing efforts to safeguard biodiversity and ecosystem services provisioning. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

'Back to the future': how archaeological remains can describe salmon adaptation to climate change.

PubMed

Blanchet, Simon; Dubut, Vincent

2012-05-01

A strategy for species to survive climate change will be to change adaptively their way of life. Understanding rapid adaptation to climate change is therefore a priority for current research. In this issue, Turrero et al. (2012) use an original approach to unravel life history trait responses to climate change in two fish species (Salmo trutta and S. salar). Going against the flow, the authors adopt the strategy of going back to the future by investigating the responses of fish to the warming periods that followed the Last Glacial Period (approximately 30-20,000 years BP). To do this, they analysed Salmo vertebrae from well-dated archaeological sites in northern Spain in order to uncover key life history traits, which they then compared to those of contemporary specimens. They found that, as the climate got warmer, Salmo species tended to reduce the time spent in growing areas and reached spawning areas at a younger age; this tendency began approximately 15,000 years BP and accelerated in contemporary periods. The implication is a lower age at maturity and a lower reproductive success, which they tentatively related to recent declines in population growth rate. This innovative study demonstrates how changes in life history traits are linked both to the population growth rate and to the evolutionary rate under climatic constraints, which may serve as a basis for future conservation research. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Climate change induced rainfall patterns affect wheat productivity and agroecosystem functioning dependent on soil types

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tabi Tataw, James; Baier, Fabian; Krottenthaler, Florian; Pachler, Bernadette; Schwaiger, Elisabeth; Whylidal, Stefan; Formayer, Herbert; Hösch, Johannes; Baumgarten, Andreas; Zaller, Johann G.

2014-05-01

Wheat is a crop of global importance supplying more than half of the world's population with carbohydrates. We examined, whether climate change induced rainfall patterns towards less frequent but heavier events alter wheat agroecosystem productivity and functioning under three different soil types. Therefore, in a full-factorial experiment Triticum aestivum L. was cultivated in 3 m2 lysimeter plots containing the soil types sandy calcaric phaeozem, gleyic phaeozem or calcic chernozem. Prognosticated rainfall patterns based on regionalised climate change model calculations were compared with current long-term rainfall patterns; each treatment combination was replicated three times. Future rainfall patterns significantly reduced wheat growth and yield, reduced the leaf area index, accelerated crop development, reduced arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi colonisation of roots, increased weed density and the stable carbon isotope signature (δ13C) of both old and young wheat leaves. Different soil types affected wheat growth and yield, ecosystem root production as well as weed abundance and biomass. The interaction between climate and soil type was significant only for the harvest index. Our results suggest that even slight changes in rainfall patterns can significantly affect the functioning of wheat agroecosystems. These rainfall effects seemed to be little influenced by soil types suggesting more general impacts of climate change across different soil types. Wheat production under future conditions will likely become more challenging as further concurrent climate change factors become prevalent.

Additive impacts of experimental climate change increase risk to an ectotherm at the Arctic's edge

USGS Publications Warehouse

Davenport, Jon M.; Hossack, Blake R.; Fishback, LeeAnn

2017-01-01

Globally, Arctic and Subarctic regions have experienced the greatest temperature increases during the last 30 years. These extreme changes have amplified threats to the freshwater ecosystems that dominate the landscape in many areas by altering water budgets. Several studies in temperate environments have examined the adaptive capacity of organisms to enhance our understanding of the potential repercussions of warming and associated accelerated drying for freshwater ecosystems. However, few experiments have examined these impacts in Arctic or Subarctic freshwater ecosystems, where the climate is changing most rapidly. To evaluate the capacity of a widespread ectotherm to anticipated environmental changes, we conducted a mesocosm experiment with wood frogs (Rana sylvatica) in the Canadian Subarctic. Three warming treatments were fully crossed with three drying treatments to simulate a range of predicted changes in wetland environments. We predicted wetland warming and drying would act synergistically, with water temperature partially compensating for some of the negative effects of accelerated drying. Across all drying regimes, a 1 °C increase in water temperature increased the odds of survival by 1.79, and tadpoles in 52-day and 64-day hydroperiod mesocosms were 4.1–4.3 times more likely to survive to metamorphosis than tadpoles in 45-day mesocosms. For individuals who survived to metamorphosis, there was only a weak negative effect of temperature on size. As expected, increased temperatures accelerated tadpole growth through day 30 of the experiment. Our results reveal that one of the dominant herbivores in Subarctic wetlands, wood frog tadpoles, are capable of increasing their developmental rates in response to increased temperature and accelerated drying, but only in an additive manner. The strong negative effects of drying on survival, combined with lack of compensation between these two environmental drivers, suggest changes in the aquatic environment that are expected in this ecosystem will reduce mean fitness of populations across the landscape.

Additive impacts of experimental climate change increase risk to an ectotherm at the Arctic's edge.

PubMed

Davenport, Jon M; Hossack, Blake R; Fishback, LeeAnn

2017-06-01

Globally, Arctic and Subarctic regions have experienced the greatest temperature increases during the last 30 years. These extreme changes have amplified threats to the freshwater ecosystems that dominate the landscape in many areas by altering water budgets. Several studies in temperate environments have examined the adaptive capacity of organisms to enhance our understanding of the potential repercussions of warming and associated accelerated drying for freshwater ecosystems. However, few experiments have examined these impacts in Arctic or Subarctic freshwater ecosystems, where the climate is changing most rapidly. To evaluate the capacity of a widespread ectotherm to anticipated environmental changes, we conducted a mesocosm experiment with wood frogs (Rana sylvatica) in the Canadian Subarctic. Three warming treatments were fully crossed with three drying treatments to simulate a range of predicted changes in wetland environments. We predicted wetland warming and drying would act synergistically, with water temperature partially compensating for some of the negative effects of accelerated drying. Across all drying regimes, a 1 °C increase in water temperature increased the odds of survival by 1.79, and tadpoles in 52-day and 64-day hydroperiod mesocosms were 4.1-4.3 times more likely to survive to metamorphosis than tadpoles in 45-day mesocosms. For individuals who survived to metamorphosis, there was only a weak negative effect of temperature on size. As expected, increased temperatures accelerated tadpole growth through day 30 of the experiment. Our results reveal that one of the dominant herbivores in Subarctic wetlands, wood frog tadpoles, are capable of increasing their developmental rates in response to increased temperature and accelerated drying, but only in an additive manner. The strong negative effects of drying on survival, combined with lack of compensation between these two environmental drivers, suggest changes in the aquatic environment that are expected in this ecosystem will reduce mean fitness of populations across the landscape. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Surface mass balance contributions to acceleration of Antarctic ice mass loss during 2003-2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seo, Ki-Weon; Wilson, Clark R.; Scambos, Ted; Kim, Baek-Min; Waliser, Duane E.; Tian, Baijun; Kim, Byeong-Hoon; Eom, Jooyoung

2015-05-01

Recent observations from satellite gravimetry (the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission) suggest an acceleration of ice mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS). The contribution of surface mass balance changes (due to variable precipitation) is compared with GRACE-derived mass loss acceleration by assessing the estimated contribution of snow mass from meteorological reanalysis data. We find that over much of the continent, the acceleration can be explained by precipitation anomalies. However, on the Antarctic Peninsula and other parts of West Antarctica, mass changes are not explained by precipitation and are likely associated with ice discharge rate increases. The total apparent GRACE acceleration over all of the AIS between 2003 and 2013 is -13.6 ± 7.2 Gt/yr2. Of this total, we find that the surface mass balance component is -8.2 ± 2.0 Gt/yr2. However, the GRACE estimate appears to contain errors arising from the atmospheric pressure fields used to remove air mass effects. The estimated acceleration error from this effect is about 9.8 ± 5.8 Gt/yr2. Correcting for this yields an ice discharge acceleration of -15.1 ± 6.5 Gt/yr2.

Predicting the Timing of Cherry Blossoms in Washington, DC and Mid-Atlantic States in Response to Climate Change

PubMed Central

Chung, Uran; Mack, Liz; Yun, Jin I.; Kim, Soo-Hyung

2011-01-01

Cherry blossoms, an icon of spring, are celebrated in many cultures of the temperate region. For its sensitivity to winter and early spring temperatures, the timing of cherry blossoms is an ideal indicator of the impacts of climate change on tree phenology. Here, we applied a process-based phenology model for temperate deciduous trees to predict peak bloom dates (PBD) of flowering cherry trees (Prunus×yedoensis ‘Yoshino’ and Prunus serrulata ‘Kwanzan’) in the Tidal Basin, Washington, DC and the surrounding Mid-Atlantic States in response to climate change. We parameterized the model with observed PBD data from 1991 to 2010. The calibrated model was tested against independent datasets of the past PBD data from 1951 to 1970 in the Tidal Basin and more recent PBD data from other locations (e.g., Seattle, WA). The model performance against these independent data was satisfactory (Yoshino: r2 = 0.57, RMSE = 6.6 days, bias = 0.9 days and Kwanzan: r2 = 0.76, RMSE = 5.5 days, bias = −2.0 days). We then applied the model to forecast future PBD for the region using downscaled climate projections based on IPCC's A1B and A2 emissions scenarios. Our results indicate that PBD at the Tidal Basin are likely to be accelerated by an average of five days by 2050 s and 10 days by 2080 s for these cultivars under a mid-range (A1B) emissions scenario projected by ECHAM5 general circulation model. The acceleration is likely to be much greater (13 days for 2050 s and 29 days for 2080s ) under a higher (A2) emissions scenario projected by CGCM2 general circulation model. Our results demonstrate the potential impacts of climate change on the timing of cherry blossoms and illustrate the utility of a simple process-based phenology model for developing adaptation strategies to climate change in horticulture, conservation planning, restoration and other related disciplines. PMID:22087317

Climate-driven disturbances in the San Juan River sub-basin of the Colorado River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bennett, Katrina E.; Bohn, Theodore J.; Solander, Kurt; McDowell, Nathan G.; Xu, Chonggang; Vivoni, Enrique; Middleton, Richard S.

2018-01-01

Accelerated climate change and associated forest disturbances in the southwestern USA are anticipated to have substantial impacts on regional water resources. Few studies have quantified the impact of both climate change and land cover disturbances on water balances on the basin scale, and none on the regional scale. In this work, we evaluate the impacts of forest disturbances and climate change on a headwater basin to the Colorado River, the San Juan River watershed, using a robustly calibrated (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency 0.76) hydrologic model run with updated formulations that improve estimates of evapotranspiration for semi-arid regions. Our results show that future disturbances will have a substantial impact on streamflow with implications for water resource management. Our findings are in contradiction with conventional thinking that forest disturbances reduce evapotranspiration and increase streamflow. In this study, annual average regional streamflow under the coupled climate-disturbance scenarios is at least 6-11 % lower than those scenarios accounting for climate change alone; for forested zones of the San Juan River basin, streamflow is 15-21 % lower. The monthly signals of altered streamflow point to an emergent streamflow pattern related to changes in forests of the disturbed systems. Exacerbated reductions of mean and low flows under disturbance scenarios indicate a high risk of low water availability for forested headwater systems of the Colorado River basin. These findings also indicate that explicit representation of land cover disturbances is required in modeling efforts that consider the impact of climate change on water resources.

Atmospheric and biospheric interactions of gases and energy in the Pacific region of the United States, Mexico, and Brazil

Treesearch

Andrzej Bytnerowicz

1997-01-01

Anthropogenic activities of the past century have caused a dramatic increase in global air pollution. This process has accelerated in the past few decades, and emissions of carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxides, or chlorofluorocarbons caused serious changes in the earth's climate, e.g., increased temperatures or elevated ultraviolet-B radiation. These changes, together...

Prognosis for a sick planet.

PubMed

Maslin, Mark

2008-12-01

Global warming is the most important science issue of the 21st century, challenging the very structure of our global society. The study of past climate has shown that the current global climate system is extremely sensitive to human-induced climate change. The burning of fossil fuels since the beginning of the industrial revolution has already caused changes with clear evidence for a 0.75 degrees C rise in global temperatures and 22 cm rise in sea level during the 20th century. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change synthesis report (2007) predicts that global temperatures by 2100 could rise by between 1.1 degrees C and 6.4 degrees C. Sea level could rise by between 28 cm and 79 cm, more if the melting of the polar ice caps accelerates. In addition, weather patterns will become less predictable and the occurrence of extreme climate events, such as storms, floods, heat waves and droughts, will increase. The potential effects of global warming on human society are devastating. We do, however, already have many of the technological solutions to cure our sick planet.

Wet climate and transportation routes accelerate spread of human plague

PubMed Central

Xu, Lei; Stige, Leif Chr.; Kausrud, Kyrre Linné; Ben Ari, Tamara; Wang, Shuchun; Fang, Xiye; Schmid, Boris V.; Liu, Qiyong; Stenseth, Nils Chr.; Zhang, Zhibin

2014-01-01

Currently, large-scale transmissions of infectious diseases are becoming more closely associated with accelerated globalization and climate change, but quantitative analyses are still rare. By using an extensive dataset consisting of date and location of cases for the third plague pandemic from 1772 to 1964 in China and a novel method (nearest neighbour approach) which deals with both short- and long-distance transmissions, we found the presence of major roads, rivers and coastline accelerated the spread of plague and shaped the transmission patterns. We found that plague spread velocity was positively associated with wet conditions (measured by an index of drought and flood events) in China, probably due to flood-driven transmission by people or rodents. Our study provides new insights on transmission patterns and possible mechanisms behind variability in transmission speed, with implications for prevention and control measures. The methodology may also be applicable to studies of disease dynamics or species movement in other systems. PMID:24523275

National Security and the Accelerating Risks of Climate Change

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-05-01

future. A second “wild card” is the ability of the ocean to adapt to increased acidification . The oceans are the world’s largest carbon “sinks,” as they...support systems The projected impacts of climate change—heat waves, intense rainfall, floods and droughts, rising sea levels, more acidic oceans , and...and they had never seen this. That, to me, was pretty profound.” Titley and other scientists say overall ocean temperatures have responded more

Land Use, Environmental Stressors, and Water Resources: Degradation to Restoration

EPA Science Inventory

Land use and climate change can accelerate the depletion of freshwater resources that support humans and ecosystem services on a global scale. Here, we briefly review studies from around the world, including those in this special issue. We identify stages, which characterize i...

Monitoring tree mortality in mature Douglas-fir forests: size and species matter

EPA Science Inventory

Background/Question/MethodsA regional increase in tree mortality rates associated with climate change will influence forest health and ecosystem services, including water quality and quantity. In recent decades, accelerated tree mortality has occurred in some, but not all, fores...

Emergence cues of a mayfly in a high-altitude stream ecosystem: potential response to climate change.

PubMed

Harper, Matthew P; Peckarsky, Barbara L

2006-04-01

To understand the consequences of human accelerated environmental change, it is important to document the effects on natural populations of an increasing frequency of extreme climatic events. In stream ecosystems, recent climate change has resulted in extreme variation in both thermal and hydrological regimes. From 2001 to 2004, a severe drought in western United States corresponded with earlier emergence of the adult stage of the high-altitude stream mayfly, Baetis bicaudatus. Using a long-term database from a western Colorado stream, the peak emergence date of this mayfly population was predicted by both the magnitude and date of peak stream flow, and by the mean daily water temperature, suggesting that Baetis may respond to declining stream flow or increasing water temperature as proximate cues for early metamorphosis. However, in a one-year survey of multiple streams from the same drainage basin, only water temperature predicted spatial variation in the onset of emergence of this mayfly. To decouple the effects of temperature and flow, we separately manipulated these factors in flow-through microcosms and measured the timing of B. bicaudatus metamorphosis to the adult stage. Mayflies emerged sooner in a warmed-water treatment than an ambient-water treatment; but reducing flow did not accelerate the onset of mayfly emergence. Nonetheless, using warming temperatures to cue metamorphosis enables mayflies to time their emergence during the descending limb of the hydrograph when oviposition sites (protruding rocks) are becoming available. We speculate that large-scale climate changes involving warming and stream drying could cause significant shifts in the timing of mayfly metamorphosis, thereby having negative effects on populations that play an important role in stream ecosystems.

Combined effects of climate change and forest clearing on the Amazon vegetation: Projections for 2080-2100

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cook, K. H.; Vizy, E. K.

2007-05-01

A regional climate model with resolution of 60 km coupled with a potential vegetation model is used to simulate future vegetation distributions over South America. The coupled model, which produces an accurate representation of today's climate and vegetation, is forced with increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations, sea surface temperature from a global model, and scenarios of future land use practices to predict climate and vegetation distributions for the last 2 decades of the 21st century. When only climate change is considered, under a business-as-usual scenario for global emissions, the extent of the Amazon rainforest is reduced by about 70 per cent by the end of this century, and the shrubland (caatinga) vegetation of Brazil's Nordeste region spreads westward and southward. Reductions in annual mean precipitation are widespread and rainfall becomes insufficient to support the rainforest in these regions, but some areas receive more precipitation. The length of the dry season increases in the central and southern Amazon in association with changes in the large-scale tropical circulation. Without this change in seasonality, local refugia of Amazon vegetation would be preserved and the retreat of the rainforest would be somewhat less extensive. Including various projections of future land use practices in addition to climate change may accelerate the unrecoverable demise of the rainforest and feedback to modify climate on regional space scales. The portions of the rainforest that are most vulnerable to climate change are the same as those that are under the most pressure from human activity, presenting a remarkable competition.

Collapsing avian community on a Hawaiian island.

PubMed

Paxton, Eben H; Camp, Richard J; Gorresen, P Marcos; Crampton, Lisa H; Leonard, David L; VanderWerf, Eric A

2016-09-01

The viability of many species has been jeopardized by numerous negative factors over the centuries, but climate change is predicted to accelerate and increase the pressure of many of these threats, leading to extinctions. The Hawaiian honeycreepers, famous for their spectacular adaptive radiation, are predicted to experience negative responses to climate change, given their susceptibility to introduced disease, the strong linkage of disease distribution to climatic conditions, and their current distribution. We document the rapid collapse of the native avifauna on the island of Kaua'i that corresponds to changes in climate and disease prevalence. Although multiple factors may be pressuring the community, we suggest that a tipping point has been crossed in which temperatures in forest habitats at high elevations have reached a threshold that facilitates the development of avian malaria and its vector throughout these species' ranges. Continued incursion of invasive weeds and non-native avian competitors may be facilitated by climate change and could also contribute to declines. If current rates of decline continue, we predict multiple extinctions in the coming decades. Kaua'i represents an early warning for the forest bird communities on the Maui and Hawai'i islands, as well as other species around the world that are trapped within a climatic space that is rapidly disappearing.

Collapsing avian community on a Hawaiian island

USGS Publications Warehouse

Paxton, Eben H.; Camp, Richard J.; Gorresen, P. Marcos; Crampton, Lisa H.; Leonard, David L.; VanderWerf, Eric

2016-01-01

The viability of many species has been jeopardized by numerous negative factors over the centuries, but climate change is predicted to accelerate and increase the pressure of many of these threats, leading to extinctions. The Hawaiian honeycreepers, famous for their spectacular adaptive radiation, are predicted to experience negative responses to climate change, given their susceptibility to introduced disease, the strong linkage of disease distribution to climatic conditions, and their current distribution. We document the rapid collapse of the native avifauna on the island of Kaua‘i that corresponds to changes in climate and disease prevalence. Although multiple factors may be pressuring the community, we suggest that a tipping point has been crossed in which temperatures in forest habitats at high elevations have reached a threshold that facilitates the development of avian malaria and its vector throughout these species’ ranges. Continued incursion of invasive weeds and non-native avian competitors may be facilitated by climate change and could also contribute to declines. If current rates of decline continue, we predict multiple extinctions in the coming decades. Kaua‘i represents an early warning for the forest bird communities on the Maui and Hawai‘i islands, as well as other species around the world that are trapped within a climatic space that is rapidly disappearing.

Potential Environmental and Ecological Effects of Global Climate Change on Venomous Terrestrial Species in the Wilderness.

PubMed

Needleman, Robert K; Neylan, Isabelle P; Erickson, Timothy

2018-06-01

Climate change has been scientifically documented, and its effects on wildlife have been prognosticated. We sought to predict the overall impact of climate change on venomous terrestrial species. We hypothesize that given the close relationship between terrestrial venomous species and climate, a changing global environment may result in increased species migration, geographical redistribution, and longer seasons for envenomation, which would have repercussions on human health. A retrospective analysis of environmental, ecological, and medical literature was performed with a focus on climate change, toxinology, and future modeling specific to venomous terrestrial creatures. Species included venomous reptiles, snakes, arthropods, spiders, and Hymenoptera (ants and bees). Animals that are vectors of hemorrhagic infectious disease (eg, mosquitos, ticks) were excluded. Our review of the literature indicates that changes to climatic norms will have a potentially dramatic effect on terrestrial venomous creatures. Empirical evidence demonstrates that geographic distributions of many species have already shifted due to changing climatic conditions. Given that most terrestrial venomous species are ectotherms closely tied to ambient temperature, and that climate change is shifting temperature zones away from the equator, further significant distribution and population changes should be anticipated. For those species able to migrate to match the changing temperatures, new geographical locations may open. For those species with limited distribution capabilities, the rate of climate change may accelerate faster than species can adapt, causing population declines. Specifically, poisonous snakes and spiders will likely maintain their population numbers but will shift their geographic distribution to traditionally temperate zones more often inhabited by humans. Fire ants and Africanized honey bees are expected to have an expanded range distribution due to predicted warming trends. Human encounters with these types of creatures are likely to increase, resulting in potential human morbidity and mortality. Temperature extremes and changes to climatic norms may have a dramatic effect on venomous terrestrial species. As climate change affects the distribution, populations, and life histories of these organisms, the chance of encounters could be altered, thus affecting human health and the survivability of these creatures. Copyright © 2017 Wilderness Medical Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Climatic vulnerability of the world’s freshwater and marine fishes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Comte, Lise; Olden, Julian D.

2017-10-01

Climate change is a mounting threat to biological diversity, compromising ecosystem structure and function, and undermining the delivery of essential services worldwide. As the magnitude and speed of climate change accelerates, greater understanding of the taxonomy and geography of climatic vulnerability is critical to guide effective conservation action. However, many uncertainties remain regarding the degree and variability of climatic risk within entire clades and across vast ecosystem boundaries. Here we integrate physiological estimates of thermal sensitivity for 2,960 ray-finned fishes with future climatic exposure, and demonstrate that global patterns of vulnerability differ substantially between freshwater and marine realms. Our results suggest that climatic vulnerability for freshwater faunas will be predominantly determined by elevated levels of climatic exposure predicted for the Northern Hemisphere, whereas marine faunas in the tropics will be the most at risk, reflecting their higher intrinsic sensitivity. Spatial overlap between areas of high physiological risk and high human impacts, together with evidence of low past rates of evolution in upper thermal tolerance, highlights the urgency of global conservation actions and policy initiatives if harmful climate effects on the world’s fishes are to be mitigated in the future.

Between Earth and Sky - Climate Change on the Last Frontier

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weindorf, David; Hunton, Paul

2017-04-01

Globally, Gelisols comprise 11.26 million km2; 8.6% of earth's surface. These soils effectively sequester 25% of global soil organic carbon. Global climate change has disproportionately affected arctic regions of the world, accelerating warming, erosion events, and altering soils and ecosystems. While many documentary films have touched on global climate change, this film is the first to consider the critical role soils play in the biogeochemical carbon cycle. Between Earth and Sky is a feature length documentary filmed in 4K which presents both the science of soil/climate dynamics whilst integrating the perspective of native Alaskans and respected elders of the community who provide personal accounts of changes observed over the past decades in Alaska. More than 40 scientists from universities, governmental research units, and consultancies deconstruct this complex topic to explain how soils form an integral part of the carbon cycle in arctic environments. This presentation will cover the development of the film from initial concepts, writing, fundraising, and project development, through filming on-site, post-production, marketing, and outreach plans.

Development of sea level rise scenarios for climate change assessments of the Mekong Delta, Vietnam

USGS Publications Warehouse

Doyle, Thomas W.; Day, Richard H.; Michot, Thomas C.

2010-01-01

Rising sea level poses critical ecological and economical consequences for the low-lying megadeltas of the world where dependent populations and agriculture are at risk. The Mekong Delta of Vietnam is one of many deltas that are especially vulnerable because much of the land surface is below mean sea level and because there is a lack of coastal barrier protection. Food security related to rice and shrimp farming in the Mekong Delta is currently under threat from saltwater intrusion, relative sea level rise, and storm surge potential. Understanding the degree of potential change in sea level under climate change is needed to undertake regional assessments of potential impacts and to formulate adaptation strategies. This report provides constructed time series of potential sea level rise scenarios for the Mekong Delta region by incorporating (1) aspects of observed intra- and inter-annual sea level variability from tide records and (2) projected estimates for different rates of regional subsidence and accelerated eustacy through the year 2100 corresponding with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate models and emission scenarios.

[China's rice field greenhouse gas emission under climate change based on DNDC model simulation].

PubMed

Tian, Zhan; Niu, Yi-long; Sun, Lai-xiang; Li, Chang-sheng; Liu, Chun-jiang; Fan, Dong-li

2015-03-01

In contrast to a large body of literature assessing the impact of agriculture greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions on climate change, there is a lack of research examining the impact of climate change on agricultural GHG emissions. This study employed the DNDC v9.5, a state-of-art biogeochemical model, to simulate greenhouse gas emissions in China' s rice-growing fields during 1971-2010. The results showed that owing to temperature rising (on average 0.49 °C higher in the second 20 years than in the first 20 year) and precipitation increase (11 mm more in the second 20 years than in the first 20 years) during the rice growing season, CH4 and N2O emissions in paddy field increased by 0.25 kg C . hm-2 and 0.25 kg N . hm-2, respectively. The rising temperature accelerated CH4 emission and N2O emission increased with precipitation. These results indicated that climate change exerted impact on the mechanism of GHG emissions in paddy field.

Detecting sea-level hazards: Simple regression-based methods for calculating the acceleration of sea level

USGS Publications Warehouse

Doran, Kara S.; Howd, Peter A.; Sallenger,, Asbury H.

2016-01-04

Recent studies, and most of their predecessors, use tide gage data to quantify SL acceleration, ASL(t). In the current study, three techniques were used to calculate acceleration from tide gage data, and of those examined, it was determined that the two techniques based on sliding a regression window through the time series are more robust compared to the technique that fits a single quadratic form to the entire time series, particularly if there is temporal variation in the magnitude of the acceleration. The single-fit quadratic regression method has been the most commonly used technique in determining acceleration in tide gage data. The inability of the single-fit method to account for time-varying acceleration may explain some of the inconsistent findings between investigators. Properly quantifying ASL(t) from field measurements is of particular importance in evaluating numerical models of past, present, and future SLR resulting from anticipated climate change.

Accelerating Climate Simulations Through Hybrid Computing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhou, Shujia; Sinno, Scott; Cruz, Carlos; Purcell, Mark

2009-01-01

Unconventional multi-core processors (e.g., IBM Cell B/E and NYIDIDA GPU) have emerged as accelerators in climate simulation. However, climate models typically run on parallel computers with conventional processors (e.g., Intel and AMD) using MPI. Connecting accelerators to this architecture efficiently and easily becomes a critical issue. When using MPI for connection, we identified two challenges: (1) identical MPI implementation is required in both systems, and; (2) existing MPI code must be modified to accommodate the accelerators. In response, we have extended and deployed IBM Dynamic Application Virtualization (DAV) in a hybrid computing prototype system (one blade with two Intel quad-core processors, two IBM QS22 Cell blades, connected with Infiniband), allowing for seamlessly offloading compute-intensive functions to remote, heterogeneous accelerators in a scalable, load-balanced manner. Currently, a climate solar radiation model running with multiple MPI processes has been offloaded to multiple Cell blades with approx.10% network overhead.

Forage quality and reindeer productivity: multiplier effects amplified by climate change

Treesearch

Merben R. Cebrian; Knut Kielland; Greg Finstad

2008-01-01

We investigated the effects of experimental manipulations of snowmelt on the flowering phenology and forage chemistry (digestibility and nitrogen concentration) of tussock cottongrass (Eriophonun vaginauoni) on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska. Early snowmelt accelerated reproductive phenology by 11 days, and resulted in higher floral digestibility...

Microtopography recreation benefits ecosystem restoration

Treesearch

Wei Wei; Liding Chen; Lei Yang; F. Fred Samadani; Ge Sun

2012-01-01

Within the context of global warming and accelerated human activities, the surrounding environments of many terrestrial ecosystems worldwide have become increasingly deteriorated, such that finding suitable methods and effective environmental technology to confront climate change and prevent land degradation is critical to the health and sustainability of the earth. In...

Long-term forest resilience to climate change indicated by mortality, regeneration, and growth in semiarid southern Siberia.

PubMed

Xu, Chongyang; Liu, Hongyan; Anenkhonov, Oleg A; Korolyuk, Andrey Yu; Sandanov, Denis V; Balsanova, Larisa D; Naidanov, Bulat B; Wu, Xiuchen

2017-06-01

Several studies have documented that regional climate warming and the resulting increase in drought stress have triggered increased tree mortality in semiarid forests with unavoidable impacts on regional and global carbon sequestration. Although climate warming is projected to continue into the future, studies examining long-term resilience of semiarid forests against climate change are limited. In this study, long-term forest resilience was defined as the capacity of forest recruitment to compensate for losses from mortality. We observed an obvious change in long-term forest resilience along a local aridity gradient by reconstructing tree growth trend and disturbance history and investigating postdisturbance regeneration in semiarid forests in southern Siberia. In our study, with increased severity of local aridity, forests became vulnerable to drought stress, and regeneration first accelerated and then ceased. Radial growth of trees during 1900-2012 was also relatively stable on the moderately arid site. Furthermore, we found that smaller forest patches always have relatively weaker resilience under the same climatic conditions. Our results imply a relatively higher resilience in arid timberline forest patches than in continuous forests; however, further climate warming and increased drought could possibly cause the disappearance of small forest patches around the arid tree line. This study sheds light on climate change adaptation and provides insight into managing vulnerable semiarid forests. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Impacts of Interactive Stratospheric Chemistry on Antarctic and Southern Ocean Climate Change in the Goddard Earth Observing System Version 5 (GEOS-5)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Li, Feng; Vikhliaev, Yury V.; Newman, Paul A.; Pawson, Steven; Perlwitz, Judith; Waugh, Darryn W.; Douglass, Anne R.

2016-01-01

Stratospheric ozone depletion plays a major role in driving climate change in the Southern Hemisphere. To date, many climate models prescribe the stratospheric ozone layer's evolution using monthly and zonally averaged ozone fields. However, the prescribed ozone underestimates Antarctic ozone depletion and lacks zonal asymmetries. In this study we investigate the impact of using interactive stratospheric chemistry instead of prescribed ozone on climate change simulations of the Antarctic and Southern Ocean. Two sets of 1960-2010 ensemble transient simulations are conducted with the coupled ocean version of the Goddard Earth Observing System Model, version 5: one with interactive stratospheric chemistry and the other with prescribed ozone derived from the same interactive simulations. The model's climatology is evaluated using observations and reanalysis. Comparison of the 1979-2010 climate trends between these two simulations reveals that interactive chemistry has important effects on climate change not only in the Antarctic stratosphere, troposphere, and surface, but also in the Southern Ocean and Antarctic sea ice. Interactive chemistry causes stronger Antarctic lower stratosphere cooling and circumpolar westerly acceleration during November-December-January. It enhances stratosphere-troposphere coupling and leads to significantly larger tropospheric and surface westerly changes. The significantly stronger surface wind stress trends cause larger increases of the Southern Ocean Meridional Overturning Circulation, leading to year-round stronger ocean warming near the surface and enhanced Antarctic sea ice decrease.

Climate change and allergic disease.

PubMed

Shea, Katherine M; Truckner, Robert T; Weber, Richard W; Peden, David B

2008-09-01

Climate change is potentially the largest global threat to human health ever encountered. The earth is warming, the warming is accelerating, and human actions are largely responsible. If current emissions and land use trends continue unchecked, the next generations will face more injury, disease, and death related to natural disasters and heat waves, higher rates of climate-related infections, and wide-spread malnutrition, as well as more allergic and air pollution-related morbidity and mortality. This review highlights links between global climate change and anticipated increases in prevalence and severity of asthma and related allergic disease mediated through worsening ambient air pollution and altered local and regional pollen production. The pattern of change will vary regionally depending on latitude, altitude, rainfall and storms, land-use patterns, urbanization, transportation, and energy production. The magnitude of climate change and related increases in allergic disease will be affected by how aggressively greenhouse gas mitigation strategies are pursued, but at best an average warming of 1 to 2 degrees C is certain this century. Thus, anticipation of a higher allergic disease burden will affect clinical practice as well as public health planning. A number of practical primary and secondary prevention strategies are suggested at the end of the review to assist in meeting this unprecedented public health challenge.

Understanding Water-Energy-Ecology Nexus from an Integrated Earth-Human System Perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, H. Y.; Zhang, X.; Wan, W.; Zhuang, Y.; Hejazi, M. I.; Leung, L. R.

2017-12-01

Both Earth and human systems exert notable controls on streamflow and stream temperature that influence energy production and ecosystem health. An integrated water model representing river processes and reservoir regulations has been developed and coupled to a land surface model and an integrated assessment model of energy, land, water, and socioeconomics to investigate the energy-water-ecology nexus in the context of climate change and water management. Simulations driven by two climate change projections following the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 radiative forcing scenarios, with and without water management, are analyzed to evaluate the individual and combined effects of climate change and water management on streamflow and stream temperature in the U.S. The simulations revealed important impacts of climate change and water management on hydrological droughts. The simulations also revealed the dynamics of competition between changes in water demand and water availability in the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios that influence streamflow and stream temperature, with important consequences to thermoelectricity production and future survival of juvenile Salmon. The integrated water model is being implemented to the Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME), a coupled Earth System Model, to enable future investigations of the energy-water-ecology nexus in the integrated Earth-Human system.

Science and Technology Review December 2010

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Blobaum, K M

This month's issue has the following articles: (1) More Insight to Better Understand Climate Change - Commentary by Tomas Diaz de la Rubia; (2) Strengthening Our Understanding of Climate Change - Researchers at the Center for Accelerator Mass Spectrometry are working to better understand climate variation and sharpen the accuracy of predictive models; (3) Precision Diagnostics Tell All - The National Ignition Facility relies on sophisticated diagnostic instruments for measuring the key physical processes that occur in high-energy-density experiments; (4) Quick Detection of Pathogens by the Thousands - Livermore scientists have developed a device that can simultaneously identify thousands ofmore » viruses and bacteria within 24 hours; and (5) Carbon Dioxide into the Briny Deep - A proposed technique for burying carbon dioxide underground could help mitigate the effects of this greenhouse gas while producing freshwater.« less

Permafrost carbon-climate feedbacks accelerate global warming.

PubMed

Koven, Charles D; Ringeval, Bruno; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Ciais, Philippe; Cadule, Patricia; Khvorostyanov, Dmitry; Krinner, Gerhard; Tarnocai, Charles

2011-09-06

Permafrost soils contain enormous amounts of organic carbon, which could act as a positive feedback to global climate change due to enhanced respiration rates with warming. We have used a terrestrial ecosystem model that includes permafrost carbon dynamics, inhibition of respiration in frozen soil layers, vertical mixing of soil carbon from surface to permafrost layers, and CH(4) emissions from flooded areas, and which better matches new circumpolar inventories of soil carbon stocks, to explore the potential for carbon-climate feedbacks at high latitudes. Contrary to model results for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4), when permafrost processes are included, terrestrial ecosystems north of 60°N could shift from being a sink to a source of CO(2) by the end of the 21st century when forced by a Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 climate change scenario. Between 1860 and 2100, the model response to combined CO(2) fertilization and climate change changes from a sink of 68 Pg to a 27 + -7 Pg sink to 4 + -18 Pg source, depending on the processes and parameter values used. The integrated change in carbon due to climate change shifts from near zero, which is within the range of previous model estimates, to a climate-induced loss of carbon by ecosystems in the range of 25 + -3 to 85 + -16 Pg C, depending on processes included in the model, with a best estimate of a 62 + -7 Pg C loss. Methane emissions from high-latitude regions are calculated to increase from 34 Tg CH(4)/y to 41-70 Tg CH(4)/y, with increases due to CO(2) fertilization, permafrost thaw, and warming-induced increased CH(4) flux densities partially offset by a reduction in wetland extent.

Carbon-Temperature-Water Change Analysis for Peanut Production Under Climate Change: A Prototype for the AgMIP Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ruane, Alex C.; McDermid, Sonali; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Baigorria, Guillermo A.; Jones, James W.; Romero, Consuelo C.; Cecil, L. DeWayne

2014-01-01

Climate change is projected to push the limits of cropping systems and has the potential to disrupt the agricultural sector from local to global scales. This article introduces the Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP), an initiative of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) to engage a global network of crop modelers to explore the impacts of climate change via an investigation of crop responses to changes in carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]), temperature, and water. As a demonstration of the C3MP protocols and enabled analyses, we apply the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) CROPGRO-Peanut crop model for Henry County, Alabama, to evaluate responses to the range of plausible [CO2], temperature changes, and precipitation changes projected by climate models out to the end of the 21st century. These sensitivity tests are used to derive crop model emulators that estimate changes in mean yield and the coefficient of variation for seasonal yields across a broad range of climate conditions, reproducing mean yields from sensitivity test simulations with deviations of ca. 2% for rain-fed conditions. We apply these statistical emulators to investigate how peanuts respond to projections from various global climate models, time periods, and emissions scenarios, finding a robust projection of modest (<10%) median yield losses in the middle of the 21st century accelerating to more severe (>20%) losses and larger uncertainty at the end of the century under the more severe representative concentration pathway (RCP8.5). This projection is not substantially altered by the selection of the AgMERRA global gridded climate dataset rather than the local historical observations, differences between the Third and Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5), or the use of the delta method of climate impacts analysis rather than the C3MP impacts response surface and emulator approach.

Climate-driven reduction in soil loss due to the dynamic role of vegetation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Constantine, J. A.; Ciampalini, R.; Walker-Springett, K.; Hales, T. C.; Ormerod, S.; Gabet, E. J.; Hall, I. R.

2016-12-01

Simulations of 21st century climate change predict increases in seasonal precipitation that may lead to widespread soil loss and reduced soil carbon stores by increasing the likelihood of surface runoff. Vegetation may counteract this increase through its dynamic response to climate change, possibly mitigating any impact on soil erosion. Here, we document for the first time the potential for vegetation to prevent widespread soil loss by surface-runoff mechanisms (i.e., rill and inter-rill erosion) by implementing a process-based soil erosion model across catchments of Great Britain with varying land-cover, topographic, and soil characteristics. Our model results reveal that, even under a significantly wetter climate, warmer air temperatures can limit soil erosion across areas with permanent vegetation cover because of its role in enhancing primary productivity, which improves leaf interception, soil infiltration-capacity, and the erosive resistance of soil. Consequently, any increase in air temperature associated with climate change will increase the threshold change in rainfall required to accelerate soil loss, and rates of soil erosion could therefore decline by up to 50% from 2070-2099 compared to baseline values under the IPCC-defined medium-emissions scenario SRES A1B. We conclude that enhanced primary productivity due to climate change can introduce a negative-feedback mechanism that limits soil loss by surface runoff as vegetation-induced impacts on soil hydrology and erodibility offset precipitation increases, highlighting the need to expand areas of permanent vegetation cover to reduce the potential for climate-driven soil loss.

Advancing Climate Change Education and Youth Empowerment: Preparing Our Communities with the Skills, Knowledge, and Passion to Push for and Develop Innovative Solutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niepold, F., III; Johnston, E.; Rooney-varga, J. N.; Qusba, L.; Staveloz, W.; Poppleton, K.; Cloyd, E. T.; Kretser, J.; Bozuwa, J.; Edkins, M. T.

2016-12-01

Today's youth are the first generation to come of age amid rapid climate change, and they have the most at stake in how society responds to it. Climate change will bring economic and environmental challenges as well as opportunities, and citizens who understand the issues at stake will be better prepared to respond. Climate education is a necessary foundation for them to understand and help tackle the complex issue of climate change. Many will become leaders with the skills, knowledge, and passion to push for and develop innovative solutions. As such, this topic requires interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary approaches from a professionally diverse group of experts to effectively build the solid foundation for a low carbon and sustainable economy. Educators from all disciplines need to be enlisted to contribute their talents in building students knowledge and skills to limit human-induced climate change while being prepared for the projected impacts that will continue, and it will accelerate significantly if global emissions of heat-trapping gases continue to increase. This presentation will discuss the new youth and educator engagement partnerships that developed to achieve ways of addressing the problems and opportunities resulting from climate change. We will describe how the partnerships are helping lift up and raise the profile of effective programs that enable transdisciplinary solutions to societal issues. The #Youth4Climate and #Teach4Climate social media campaigns were organized by a flotilla of federal and non-federal partners to inspire young people around the world to take actions on climate change and inspire teachers to prepare students to be part of the solutions to climate change. The largest one, the #Youth4Climate campaign for COP21 youth engagement had over 33 million impressions and opened a discussion for all to join with youth for climate actions at COP21. Each of these three social media campaigns had a simple ask, give young people a voice and prepare them to succeed in doing something about climate change. We are excited to have new partners join forces and support young people, giving them a voice and an opportunity to lead in Paris and beyond. We know the solutions are here, and are committed to working together to build a climate-friendly world. Join us with #Youth4Climate and #Teach4Climate.

Global climate change and sea level rise: potential losses of intertidal habitat for shorebirds

Treesearch

H. Galbraith; R. Jones; R. Park; J. Clough; S. Herrod-Julius; B. Harrington; G. Page

2005-01-01

Global warming is expected to result in an acceleration of current rates of sea level rise, inundating many low-lying coastal and intertidal areas. This could have important implications for organisms that depend on these sites, including shorebirds that rely on them for foraging habitat during their migrations and in winter. We modeled the potential changes in the...

Changing climate, changing forests: the impacts of climate change on forests of the northeastern United States and eastern Canada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rustad, Lindsey; Campbell, John; Dukes, Jeffrey S.; Huntington, Thomas; Lambert, Kathy Fallon; Mohan, Jacqueline; Rodenhouse, Nicholas

2012-01-01

Decades of study on climatic change and its direct and indirect effects on forest ecosystems provide important insights for forest science, management, and policy. A synthesis of recent research from the northeastern United States and eastern Canada shows that the climate of the region has become warmer and wetter over the past 100 years and that there are more extreme precipitation events. Greater change is projected in the future. The amount of projected future change depends on the emissions scenarios used. Tree species composition of northeast forests has shifted slowly in response to climate for thousands of years. However, current human-accelerated climate change is much more rapid and it is unclear how forests will respond to large changes in suitable habitat. Projections indicate significant declines in suitable habitat for spruce-fir forests and expansion of suitable habitat for oak-dominated forests. Productivity gains that might result from extended growing seasons and carbon dioxide and nitrogen fertilization may be offset by productivity losses associated with the disruption of species assemblages and concurrent stresses associated with potential increases in atmospheric deposition of pollutants, forest fragmentation, and nuisance species. Investigations of links to water and nutrient cycling suggest that changes in evapotranspiration, soil respiration, and mineralization rates could result in significant alterations of key ecosystem processes. Climate change affects the distribution and abundance of many wildlife species in the region through changes in habitat, food availability, thermal tolerances, species interactions such as competition, and susceptibility to parasites and disease. Birds are the most studied northeastern taxa. Twenty-seven of the 38 bird species for which we have adequate long-term records have expanded their ranges predominantly in a northward direction. There is some evidence to suggest that novel species, including pests and pathogens, may be more adept at adjusting to changing climatic conditions, enhancing their competitive ability relative to native species. With the accumulating evidence of climate change and its potential effects, forest stewardship efforts would benefit from integrating climate mitigation and adaptation options in conservation and management plans.

Irrigated Corn Cob Production and Quality: Potential Cellulosic Feedstock

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Escalating fossil fuel cost and concern over global climate change have accelerated interest in cellulosic feedstocks, such as corn cobs, for liquid fuel production. Little information is available about corn cob yield and its N and C content. Available cob data was compiled and summarized from seve...

Accelerated microbial turnover but constant growth efficiency with warming in soil

Treesearch

Shannon B. Hagerty; Kees Jan van Groenigen; Steven D. Allison; Bruce A. Hungate; Egbert Schwartz; George W. Koch; Randall K. Kolka; Paul Dijkstra

2014-01-01

Rising temperatures are expected to reduce global soil carbon (C) stocks, driving a positive feedback to climate change1-3. However, the mechanisms underlying this prediction are not well understood, including how temperature affects microbial enzyme kinetics, growth effiency (MGE), and turnover4,5. Here, in a laboratory...

Finding them before they find us: Informatics, parasites and environments in accelerating climate change

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Parasites are agents of disease in humans, livestock, crops and wildlife, and are powerful representations of the ecological and historical context of the diseases they cause. Recognizing a nexus of professional opportunities and global public need, the authors of this article gathered at the Cedar ...

Development of a Climate-Change Adaptation Strategy for Management of Coastal Marsh Systems in Southern New England USA

EPA Science Inventory

Sea level rise is accelerating throughout the U.S. Northeast causing shoreline erosion, increased coastal flooding, and marsh vulnerability to the impact of storms. Coastal marshes provide flood abatement, carbon and nutrient sequestration, water quality maintenance, and habitat ...

Development of a Climate Change Adaptation Strategy for Management of Coastal Marsh Systems in Southern New England USA

EPA Science Inventory

Sea level rise is accelerating throughout the U.S. Northeast causing shoreline erosion, increased coastal flooding, and marsh vulnerability to the impact of storms. Coastal marshes provide flood abatement, carbon and nutrient sequestration, water quality maintenance, and habitat ...

New eyes in the sky measure glaciers and ice sheets

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kieffer, Hugh; Kargel, Jeffrey S.; Barry, Roger G.; Bindschadler, Robert; Bishop, Michael P.; MacKinnon, David; Ohmura, Atsumu; Raup, Bruce; Antoninetti, Massimo; Bamber, Jonathan; Braun, Mattias; Brown, Ian; Cohen, Denis; Copland, Luke; DueHagen, Jon; Engeset, Rune V.; Fitzharris, Blair; Fujita, Koji; Haeberli, Wilfried; Hagen, Jon Oue; Hall, Dorothy; Hoelzle, Martin; Johansson, Maria; Kaab, Andi; Koenig, Max; Konovalov, Vladimir; Maisch, Max; Paul, Frank; Rau, Frank; Reeh, Niels; Rignot, Eric; Rivera, Andres; De Ruyter de Wildt, Martiyn; Scambos, Ted; Schaper, Jesko; Scharfen, Greg; Shroder, Jack; Solomina, Olga; Thompson, David; van der Veen, Kees; Wohlleben, Trudy; Young, Neal

2000-01-01

The mapping and measurement of glaciers and their changes are useful in predicting sea-level and regional water supply, studying hazards and climate change [Haeberli et al., 1998],and in the hydropower industry Existing inventories cover only about 67,000 of the world's estimated 160,000 glaciers and are based on data collected over 50 years or more [e.g.,Haeberli et al., 1998]. The data available have proven that small ice bodies are disappearing at an accelerating rate and that the Antarctic ice sheet and its fringing ice shelves are undergoing unexpected, rapid change. According to many glaciologists, much larger fluctuations in land ice—with vast implications for society—are possible in the coming decades and centuries due to natural and anthropogenic climate change [Oppenheimer, 1998].

Future vegetation ecosystem response to warming climate over the Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bao, Y.; Gao, Y.; Wang, Y.

2017-12-01

The amplified vegetation response to climate variability has been found over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) in recent decades. In this study, the potential impacts of 21st century climate change on the vegetation ecosystem over the TP are assessed based on the dynamic vegetation outputs of models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), and the sensitivity of the TP vegetation in response to warming climate was investigated. Models project a continuous and accelerating greening in future, especially in the eastern TP, which closely associates with the plant type upgrade due to the pronouncing warming in growing season.Vegetation leaf area index (LAI) increase well follows the global warming, suggesting the warming climate instead of co2 fertilization controlls the future TP plant growth. The warming spring may advance the start of green-up day and extend the growing season length. More carbon accumulation in vegetation and soil will intensify the TP carbon cycle and will keep it as a carbon sink in future. Keywords: Leaf Area Index (LAI), Climate Change, Global Dynamic Vegetation Models (DGVMs), CMIP5, Tibetan Plateau (TP)

Land Use, Climate, and Water Resources-Global Stages of Interaction.

PubMed

Kaushal, Sujay S; Gold, Arthur J; Mayer, Paul M

2017-10-24

Land use and climate change can accelerate the depletion of freshwater resources that support humans and ecosystem services on a global scale. Here, we briefly review studies from around the world, and highlight those in this special issue. We identify stages that characterize increasing interaction between land use and climate change. During the first stage, hydrologic modifications and the built environment amplify overland flow via processes associated with runoff-dominated ecosystems (e.g., soil compaction, impervious surface cover, drainage, and channelization). During the second stage, changes in water storage impact the capacity of ecosystems to buffer extremes in water quantity and quality (e.g., either losses in snowpack, wetlands, and groundwater recharge or gains in water and nutrient storage behind dams in reservoirs). During the third stage, extremes in water quantity and quality contribute to losses in ecosystem services and water security (e.g., clean drinking water, flood mitigation, and habitat availability). During the final stage, management and restoration strategies attempt to regain lost ecosystem structure, function, and services but need to adapt to climate change. By anticipating the increasing interaction between land use and climate change, intervention points can be identified, and management strategies can be adjusted to improve outcomes for realistic expectations. Overall, global water security cannot be adequately restored without considering an increasing interaction between land use and climate change across progressive stages and our ever-increasing human domination of the water cycle from degradation to ecosystem restoration.

Synergistic Ecoclimate Teleconnections from Forest Loss in Different Regions Structure Global Ecological Responses.

PubMed

Garcia, Elizabeth S; Swann, Abigail L S; Villegas, Juan C; Breshears, David D; Law, Darin J; Saleska, Scott R; Stark, Scott C

2016-01-01

Forest loss in hotspots around the world impacts not only local climate where loss occurs, but also influences climate and vegetation in remote parts of the globe through ecoclimate teleconnections. The magnitude and mechanism of remote impacts likely depends on the location and distribution of forest loss hotspots, but the nature of these dependencies has not been investigated. We use global climate model simulations to estimate the distribution of ecologically-relevant climate changes resulting from forest loss in two hotspot regions: western North America (wNA), which is experiencing accelerated dieoff, and the Amazon basin, which is subject to high rates of deforestation. The remote climatic and ecological net effects of simultaneous forest loss in both regions differed from the combined effects of loss from the two regions simulated separately, as evident in three impacted areas. Eastern South American Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) increased due to changes in seasonal rainfall associated with Amazon forest loss and changes in temperature related to wNA forest loss. Eurasia's GPP declined with wNA forest loss due to cooling temperatures increasing soil ice volume. Southeastern North American productivity increased with simultaneous forest loss, but declined with only wNA forest loss due to changes in VPD. Our results illustrate the need for a new generation of local-to-global scale analyses to identify potential ecoclimate teleconnections, their underlying mechanisms, and most importantly, their synergistic interactions, to predict the responses to increasing forest loss under future land use change and climate change.

Pollen record of the mid- to late-Holocene centennial climate change on the East coast of South Korea and its influential factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Bing; Yi, Sangheon; Jia, Hongjuan; Nahm, Wook-Hyun; Kim, Jin-Cheul; Lim, Jaesoo; Lee, Jin-Young; Sha, Longbin; Mao, Limi; Yang, Zhongyong; Nakanishi, Toshimichi; Hong, Wan; Li, Zhen

2018-01-01

To understand historical climate change in western Pacific coastal areas, a sediment core (SOJ-2) from the stable sedimentary environment of the Songjiho Lagoon on the east coast of South Korea was obtained for centennial-resolution palynological analysis. The ages of the SOJ-2 core is well controlled by carbon 14 dating with high-resolution accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS), and the results indicated a general warm to cold climate trend from the mid-Holocene to the present, which can be divided into two different stages: a warmer stage between 6842 and 1297 cal yr BP and a colder stage from 1297 cal yr BP to the present, with fluctuations during these stages. The climate was wetter from 6842 to 6227 cal yr BP and 4520 to 1297 cal yr BP and was drier from 6227 to 4520 cal yr BP. The climate changed to cold and dry during the period from 1297-425 cal yr BP. The impact of human activity on the climate began at approximately 1297 cal yr BP and became pronounced starting in 425 cal yr BP. The general cooling trend may represent a response to decreasing solar insolation; however, the relative dryness or wetness of the climate may have been co-determined by westerlies and the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM). The climate had a teleconnection with the North Atlantic region, resulting from changes in solar activity. Nevertheless, EI Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) activity played an important role in impacting the EASM changes in western Pacific coastal areas.

A vicious circle of fire, deforestation and climate change: an integrative study for the Amazon region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thonicke, K.; Rammig, A.; Gumpenberger, M.; Vohland, K.; Poulter, B.; Cramer, W.

2009-04-01

The Amazon rainforest is threatened by deforestation due to wood extraction and agricultural production leading to increasing forest fragmentation and forest degradation. These changes in land surface characteristics and water fluxes are expected to further reduce convective precipitation. Under future climate change the stability of the Amazon rainforest is likely to decrease thus leading to forest dieback (savannization) or forest degradation (secondarization). This puts the Amazon rainforest at risk to reduce the generation of precipitation, to act as a carbon sink and biodiversity hotspot. Fires increased in the past during drought years and in open vegetation thereby further accelerating forest degradation. Deforestation as a result of socioeconomic development in the Amazon basin is projected to further increase in the 21st century and brings climate-induced changes forward. Combined effects of deforestation vs. climate change on the stability of the Amazon rainforest and the role of fire in this system need to be quantified in an integrated study. We present simulation results from future climate (AR4) and deforestation (SimAmazon) experiments using the LPJmL-SPITFIRE vegetation model. Land use change is the main driving factor of forest degradation before 2050, whereas extreme climate change scenarios lead to forest degradation by the end of 2100. Forest fires increase with increasing drought conditions during the 21st century. The resulting effects on vegetation secondarization and savannization and their feedbacks on fire spread and emissions will be presented. The effect of wildfires and intentional burning on forest degradation under future climate and socioeconomic change will be discussed, and recommendations for an integrated land use and fire management are given.

Phenotypic response of plants to simulated climate change in a long-term rain-manipulation experiment: a multi-species study.

PubMed

Hänel, Sabine; Tielbörger, Katja

2015-04-01

Many species will need to adapt to the observed climate change in order to persist. However, research about adaptation or phenotypic plasticity in response to climate change is rare. In particular, field studies are lacking that impose artificial selection for a sufficiently long time to elicit changes in phenotypic and genotypic structure of populations. Here, we present findings for an 8-year field experiment with 16 annual plant species that tested potentially adaptive phenotypic responses to precipitation change. In both a Mediterranean and a semi-arid site, annual precipitation was manipulated (±30%) and phenotypic response was recorded. We measured flowering time as a key trait related to climatic conditions and biomass and survival as fitness correlates. Differences in traits among treatments were compared to trait shifts between sites, according to space-for-time approaches. In the drier site, phenology was accelerated, but within that site, experimental drought delayed phenology, probably as a plastic response to delayed ontogenetic development. Biomass was smaller in the dry treatments of that site, but it was also reduced in irrigated plots in both sites, indicating more intense competition. The shifts from limitation by drought to limitation by competition corresponded to patterns along the gradient. This also implies a larger negative impact of climate change in the drier site. Our results suggest that experimental selection in the field caused directional responses in most species, but these were not necessarily adaptive. Furthermore, competitive release imposed by climate change may revert direct negative effects of rainfall change in determining plant performance.

Climate change, atmospheric rivers, and floods in California - a multimodel analysis of storm frequency and magnitude changes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dettinger, M.

2011-01-01

Recent studies have documented the important role that "atmospheric rivers" (ARs) of concentrated near-surface water vapor above the Pacific Ocean play in the storms and floods in California, Oregon, and Washington. By delivering large masses of warm, moist air (sometimes directly from the Tropics), ARs establish conditions for the kinds of high snowlines and copious orographic rainfall that have caused the largest historical storms. In many California rivers, essentially all major historical floods have been associated with AR storms. As an example of the kinds of storm changes that may influence future flood frequencies, the occurrence of such storms in historical observations and in a 7-model ensemble of historical-climate and projected future climate simulations is evaluated. Under an A2 greenhouse-gas emissions scenario (with emissions accelerating throughout the 21st Century), average AR statistics do not change much in most climate models; however, extremes change notably. Years with many AR episodes increase, ARs with higher-than-historical water-vapor transport rates increase, and AR storm-temperatures increase. Furthermore, the peak season within which most ARs occur is commonly projected to lengthen, extending the flood-hazard season. All of these tendencies could increase opportunities for both more frequent and more severe floods in California under projected climate changes. ?? 2011 American Water Resources Association.

[Variation trends of natural vegetation net primary productivity in China under climate change scenario].

PubMed

Zhao, Dong-sheng; Wu, Shao-hong; Yin, Yun-he

2011-04-01

Based on the widely used Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ) for climate change study, and according to the features of natural environment in China, the operation mechanism of the model was adjusted, and the parameters were modified. With the modified LPJ model and taking 1961-1990 as baseline period, the responses of natural vegetation net primary productivity (NPP) in China to climate change in 1991-2080 were simulated under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) B2 scenario. In 1961-1990, the total NPP of natural vegetation in China was about 3.06 Pg C a(-1); in 1961-2080, the total NPP showed a fluctuant decreasing trend, with an accelerated decreasing rate. Under the condition of slight precipitation change, the increase of mean air temperature would have definite adverse impact on the NPP. Spatially, the NPP decreased from southeast coast to northwest inland, and this pattern would have less variation under climate change. In eastern China with higher NPP, especially in Northeast China, east of North China, and Loess Plateau, the NPP would mainly have a decreasing trend; while in western China with lower NPP, especially in the Tibetan Plateau and Tarim Basin, the NPP would be increased. With the intensive climate change, such a variation trend of NPP would be more obvious.

Climate-driven changes in grassland vegetation, snow cover, and lake water of the Qinghai Lake basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xuelu; Liang, Tiangang; Xie, Hongjie; Huang, Xiaodong; Lin, Huilong

2016-07-01

Qinghai Lake basin and the lake have undergone significant changes in recent decades. We examine MODIS-derived grassland vegetation and snow cover of the Qinghai Lake basin and their relations with climate parameters during 2001 to 2010. Results show: (1) temperature and precipitation of the Qinghai Lake basin increased while evaporation decreased; (2) most of the grassland areas improved due to increased temperature and growing season precipitation; (3) weak relations between snow cover and precipitation/vegetation; (4) a significantly negative correlation between lake area and temperature (r=-0.9, p<0.05) and (5) a positive relation between lake level (lake-level difference) and temperature (precipitation). Compared with Namco Lake (located in the inner Tibetan Plateau) where the primary water source of lake level increases was the accelerated melt of glacier/perennial snow cover in the lake basin, for the Qinghai Lake, however, it was the increased precipitation. Increased precipitation explained the improvement of vegetation cover in the Qinghai Lake basin, while accelerated melt of glacier/perennial snow cover was responsible for the degradation of vegetation cover in Namco Lake basin. These results suggest different responses to the similar warming climate: improved (degraded) ecological condition and productive capacity of the Qinghai Lake basin (Namco Lake basin).

Climate driven crop planting date in the ACME Land Model (ALM): Impacts on productivity and yield

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drewniak, B.

2017-12-01

Climate is one of the key drivers of crop suitability and productivity in a region. The influence of climate and weather on the growing season determine the amount of time crops spend in each growth phase, which in turn impacts productivity and, more importantly, yields. Planting date can have a strong influence on yields with earlier planting generally resulting in higher yields, a sensitivity that is also present in some crop models. Furthermore, planting date is already changing and may continue, especially if longer growing seasons caused by future climate change drive early (or late) planting decisions. Crop models need an accurate method to predict plant date to allow these models to: 1) capture changes in crop management to adapt to climate change, 2) accurately model the timing of crop phenology, and 3) improve crop simulated influences on carbon, nutrient, energy, and water cycles. Previous studies have used climate as a predictor for planting date. Climate as a plant date predictor has more advantages than fixed plant dates. For example, crop expansion and other changes in land use (e.g., due to changing temperature conditions), can be accommodated without additional model inputs. As such, a new methodology to implement a predictive planting date based on climate inputs is added to the Accelerated Climate Model for Energy (ACME) Land Model (ALM). The model considers two main sources of climate data important for planting: precipitation and temperature. This method expands the current temperature threshold planting trigger and improves the estimated plant date in ALM. Furthermore, the precipitation metric for planting, which synchronizes the crop growing season with the wettest months, allows tropical crops to be introduced to the model. This presentation will demonstrate how the improved model enhances the ability of ALM to capture planting date compared with observations. More importantly, the impact of changing the planting date and introducing tropical crops will be explored. Those impacts include discussions on productivity, yield, and influences on carbon and energy fluxes.

Teleconnections in the Presence of Climate Change: A Case Study of the Annular Modes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gerber, Edwin; Baldwin, Mark

2010-05-01

Long model integrations of future and past climates present a problem for defining teleconnection patterns through Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) or correlation analysis when trends in the underlying climate begin to dominate the covariance structure. Similar issues may soon appear in observations as the record becomes longer, especially if climate trends accelerate. The Northern and Southern Annular Modes provide a prime example, because the poleward shift of the jet streams strongly projects onto these patterns, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere. Climate forecasts of the 21st century by chemistry climate models provide a case study. Computation of the annular modes in these long data sets with secular trends requires refinement of the standard definition of the annular mode, and a more robust procedure that allows for slowly varying trends is established and verified. The new procedure involves two key changes. First, the global mean geopotential height is removed at each time step before computing anomalies. This is particularly important high in the atmosphere, where seasonal variations in geopotential height become significant, and filters out trends due to changes in the temperature structure of the atmosphere. Pattern definition can be very sensitive near the tropopause, as regions of the atmosphere that used to be more of stratospheric character begin to take on tropospheric characteristics as the tropopause rises. The second change is to define anomalies relative to a slowly evolving seasonal climatology, so that the covariance structure reflects internal variability. Once these changes are accounted for, it is found that the zonal mean variability of the atmosphere stays remarkably constant, despite significant changes in the baseline climate forecast for the rest of the century. This stability of the internal variability makes it possible to relate trends in climate to teleconnections.

Surface mass balance contributions to acceleration of Antarctic ice mass loss during 2003-2013.

PubMed

Seo, Ki-Weon; Wilson, Clark R; Scambos, Ted; Kim, Baek-Min; Waliser, Duane E; Tian, Baijun; Kim, Byeong-Hoon; Eom, Jooyoung

2015-05-01

Recent observations from satellite gravimetry (the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission) suggest an acceleration of ice mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS). The contribution of surface mass balance changes (due to variable precipitation) is compared with GRACE-derived mass loss acceleration by assessing the estimated contribution of snow mass from meteorological reanalysis data. We find that over much of the continent, the acceleration can be explained by precipitation anomalies. However, on the Antarctic Peninsula and other parts of West Antarctica, mass changes are not explained by precipitation and are likely associated with ice discharge rate increases. The total apparent GRACE acceleration over all of the AIS between 2003 and 2013 is -13.6 ± 7.2 Gt/yr 2 . Of this total, we find that the surface mass balance component is -8.2 ± 2.0 Gt/yr 2 . However, the GRACE estimate appears to contain errors arising from the atmospheric pressure fields used to remove air mass effects. The estimated acceleration error from this effect is about 9.8 ± 5.8 Gt/yr 2 . Correcting for this yields an ice discharge acceleration of -15.1 ± 6.5 Gt/yr 2 .

21st Century Climate Change in the European Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gobiet, Andreas; Kotlarski, Sven; Stoffel, Markus; Heinrich, Georg; Rajczak, Jan; Beniston, Martin

2014-05-01

The Alps are particularly sensitive to global warming and warmed twice as much as the global average in the recent past. In addition, the Alps and its surroundings are a densly populated areas where society is affected by climate change in many ways, which calls for reliable estimates of future climate change. However, the complex Alpine region poses considerable challenges to climate models, which translate to uncertainties in future climate projections. Against this background, the present study reviews the state-of-knowledge about 21st century climate change in the Alps based on existing literature and additional analyses. It will be demonstrated that considerable and accelerating changes are not only to be expected with regard to temperature, but also precipitation, global radiation, relative humidity, and closely related impacts like floods, droughts, snow cover, and natural hazards will be effected by global warming. Under the A1B emission scenario, about 0.25 °C warming per decade until the mid of the 21st century and accelerated 0.36 °C warming per decade in the second half of the century is expected. Warming will most probably be associated with changes in the seasonality of precipitation, global radiation, and relative humidity. More intense precipitation extremes and flooding potential are particularly expected in the colder part of the year. The conditions of currently record breaking warm or hot winter or summer seasons, respectively, may become normal at the end of the 21st century, and there is indication for droughts to become more severe in the future. Snow cover is expected to drastically decrease below 1500 - 2000 m and natural hazards related to glacier and permafrost retreat are expected to become more frequent. Such changes in climatic variables and related quantities will have considerable impact on ecosystems and society and will challenge their adaptive capabilities. Acknowledgements: This study has been initiated and is partly funded by the EU FP6 project ACQWA (www.acqwa.ch). Additional funding has been provided by the project ARNICA (http://www.lgp.cnrs-bellevue.fr/arnica/), funded under the EU CIRCLE-2 mountain call, by the Swiss National Science Foundation through the Sinergia project TEMPS, and the Austrian Climate Research Program (ACRP) through the projects reclip:century and DEUCALION. We acknowledge the RCM data sets from the EU- FP6 project ENSEMBLES (http://ensembles-eu.metoffice.com). In particular, we thank Sebastian R. Scher (University of Graz) for the preparation of several figures in this study.This study has been supported by the EU project ACQWA (FP7 no. 212250) and the ACRP project reclip:century 2 (No. A963768).

When it rains, it pours: future climate extremes and health.

PubMed

Patz, Jonathan A; Grabow, Maggie L; Limaye, Vijay S

2014-01-01

The accelerating accumulation of greenhouse gases in the Earth's atmosphere is changing global environmental conditions in unprecedented and potentially irreversible ways. Climate change poses a host of challenges to the health of populations through complex direct and indirect mechanisms. The direct effects include an increased frequency of heat waves, rising sea levels that threaten low-lying communities, anticipated extremes in the global hydrologic cycle (droughts, floods, and intense storms), and adverse effects on agricultural production and fisheries due to environmental stressors and changes in land use. Indirectly, climate change is anticipated to threaten health by worsening urban air pollution and increasing rates of infectious (particularly waterborne and vector-borne) disease transmission. To provide a state-of-the-science review on the health consequences of a changing climate. Environmental public health researchers have concluded that, on balance, adverse health outcomes will dominate under these changed climatic conditions. The number of pathways through which climate change can affect the health of populations makes this environmental health threat one of the largest and most formidable of the new century. Geographic location plays an influential role the potential for adverse health effects caused by climate change, and certain regions and populations are more vulnerable than others to expected health effects. Two kinds of strategies are available for responding to climate change: mitigation policies (which aim to reduce greenhouse gas emissions) and adaptation measures (relating to preparedness for anticipated impacts). To better understand and address the complex nature of health risks posed by climate change, interdisciplinary collaboration is critical. Efforts to move beyond our current reliance on fossil fuels to cleaner, more sustainable energy sources may offer some of the greatest health opportunities in more than a century and cobenefits beyond the health sector. Because the nations least responsible for climate change are most vulnerable to its effects, the challenge to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is not merely technical, but also moral. Copyright © 2014 Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Satellite passive microwave detection of surface water inundation changes over the pan-Arctic from AMSR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du, J.; Kimball, J. S.; Jones, L. A.; Watts, J. D.

2016-12-01

Climate is one of the key drivers of crop suitability and productivity in a region. The influence of climate and weather on the growing season determine the amount of time crops spend in each growth phase, which in turn impacts productivity and, more importantly, yields. Planting date can have a strong influence on yields with earlier planting generally resulting in higher yields, a sensitivity that is also present in some crop models. Furthermore, planting date is already changing and may continue, especially if longer growing seasons caused by future climate change drive early (or late) planting decisions. Crop models need an accurate method to predict plant date to allow these models to: 1) capture changes in crop management to adapt to climate change, 2) accurately model the timing of crop phenology, and 3) improve crop simulated influences on carbon, nutrient, energy, and water cycles. Previous studies have used climate as a predictor for planting date. Climate as a plant date predictor has more advantages than fixed plant dates. For example, crop expansion and other changes in land use (e.g., due to changing temperature conditions), can be accommodated without additional model inputs. As such, a new methodology to implement a predictive planting date based on climate inputs is added to the Accelerated Climate Model for Energy (ACME) Land Model (ALM). The model considers two main sources of climate data important for planting: precipitation and temperature. This method expands the current temperature threshold planting trigger and improves the estimated plant date in ALM. Furthermore, the precipitation metric for planting, which synchronizes the crop growing season with the wettest months, allows tropical crops to be introduced to the model. This presentation will demonstrate how the improved model enhances the ability of ALM to capture planting date compared with observations. More importantly, the impact of changing the planting date and introducing tropical crops will be explored. Those impacts include discussions on productivity, yield, and influences on carbon and energy fluxes.

Geologic effects and coastal vulnerability to sea-level rise, erosion, and storms

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, S.J.; Gutierrez, B.T.; Thieler, E.R.; Pendleton, E.

2008-01-01

A combination of natural and human factors are driving coastal change and making coastal regions and populations increasingly vulnerable. Sea level, a major agent of coastal erosion, has varied greatly from -120 m below present during glacial period low-stands to + 4 to 6 m above present during interglacial warm periods. Geologic and tide gauge data show that global sea level has risen about 12 to 15 cm during the past century with satellite measurements indicating an acceleration since the early 1990s due to thermal expansion and ice-sheet melting. Land subsidence due to tectonic forces and sediment compaction in regions like the mid-Atlantic and Louisiana increase the rate of relative sea-level rise to 40 cm to 100 cm per century. Sea- level rise is predicted to accelerate significantly in the near future due to climate change, resulting in pervasive impacts to coastal regions and putting populations increasingly at risk. The full implications of climate change for coastal systems need to be understood better and long-term plans are needed to manage coasts in order to protect natural resources and mitigate the effects of sea-level rise and increased storms on human infrastructure. 

Accelerated/abbreviated test methods of the low-cost silicon solar array project. Study 4, task 3: Encapsulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kolyer, J. M.; Mann, N. R.

1977-01-01

Methods of accelerated and abbreviated testing were developed and applied to solar cell encapsulants. These encapsulants must provide protection for as long as 20 years outdoors at different locations within the United States. Consequently, encapsulants were exposed for increasing periods of time to the inherent climatic variables of temperature, humidity, and solar flux. Property changes in the encapsulants were observed. The goal was to predict long term behavior of encapsulants based upon experimental data obtained over relatively short test periods.

El Niño/Southern Oscillation response to global warming

PubMed Central

Latif, M.; Keenlyside, N. S.

2009-01-01

The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, originating in the Tropical Pacific, is the strongest natural interannual climate signal and has widespread effects on the global climate system and the ecology of the Tropical Pacific. Any strong change in ENSO statistics will therefore have serious climatic and ecological consequences. Most global climate models do simulate ENSO, although large biases exist with respect to its characteristics. The ENSO response to global warming differs strongly from model to model and is thus highly uncertain. Some models simulate an increase in ENSO amplitude, others a decrease, and others virtually no change. Extremely strong changes constituting tipping point behavior are not simulated by any of the models. Nevertheless, some interesting changes in ENSO dynamics can be inferred from observations and model integrations. Although no tipping point behavior is envisaged in the physical climate system, smooth transitions in it may give rise to tipping point behavior in the biological, chemical, and even socioeconomic systems. For example, the simulated weakening of the Pacific zonal sea surface temperature gradient in the Hadley Centre model (with dynamic vegetation included) caused rapid Amazon forest die-back in the mid-twenty-first century, which in turn drove a nonlinear increase in atmospheric CO2, accelerating global warming. PMID:19060210

Policies for accelerating access to clean energy, improving health, advancing development, and mitigating climate change.

PubMed

Haines, Andy; Smith, Kirk R; Anderson, Dennis; Epstein, Paul R; McMichael, Anthony J; Roberts, Ian; Wilkinson, Paul; Woodcock, James; Woods, Jeremy

2007-10-06

The absence of reliable access to clean energy and the services it provides imposes a large disease burden on low-income populations and impedes prospects for development. Furthermore, current patterns of fossil-fuel use cause substantial ill-health from air pollution and occupational hazards. Impending climate change, mainly driven by energy use, now also threatens health. Policies to promote access to non-polluting and sustainable sources of energy have great potential both to improve public health and to mitigate (prevent) climate disruption. There are several technological options, policy levers, and economic instruments for sectors such as power generation, transport, agriculture, and the built environment. However, barriers to change include vested interests, political inertia, inability to take meaningful action, profound global inequalities, weak technology-transfer mechanisms, and knowledge gaps that must be addressed to transform global markets. The need for policies that prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate while addressing the energy needs of disadvantaged people is a central challenge of the current era. A comprehensive programme for clean energy should optimise mitigation and, simultaneously, adaption to climate change while maximising co-benefits for health--eg, through improved air, water, and food quality. Intersectoral research and concerted action, both nationally and internationally, will be required.

El Nino/Southern Oscillation response to global warming.

PubMed

Latif, M; Keenlyside, N S

2009-12-08

The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, originating in the Tropical Pacific, is the strongest natural interannual climate signal and has widespread effects on the global climate system and the ecology of the Tropical Pacific. Any strong change in ENSO statistics will therefore have serious climatic and ecological consequences. Most global climate models do simulate ENSO, although large biases exist with respect to its characteristics. The ENSO response to global warming differs strongly from model to model and is thus highly uncertain. Some models simulate an increase in ENSO amplitude, others a decrease, and others virtually no change. Extremely strong changes constituting tipping point behavior are not simulated by any of the models. Nevertheless, some interesting changes in ENSO dynamics can be inferred from observations and model integrations. Although no tipping point behavior is envisaged in the physical climate system, smooth transitions in it may give rise to tipping point behavior in the biological, chemical, and even socioeconomic systems. For example, the simulated weakening of the Pacific zonal sea surface temperature gradient in the Hadley Centre model (with dynamic vegetation included) caused rapid Amazon forest die-back in the mid-twenty-first century, which in turn drove a nonlinear increase in atmospheric CO(2), accelerating global warming.

Movers and stayers: Novel assemblages in changing environments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hobbs, Richard L.; Valentine, Leonie E.; Standish, Rachel J.; Jackson, Stephen T.

2018-01-01

How species will respond to ongoing climate and other change is of increasing concern.Most attention is given to how species move or are moved, but many species stay.Understanding the dynamics of new species combinations is essential for successful conservation in a changing climate.Increased attention to species movement in response to environmental change highlights the need to consider changes in species distributions and altered biological assemblages. Such changes are well known from paleoecological studies, but have accelerated with ongoing pervasive human influence. In addition to species that move, some species will stay put, leading to an array of novel interactions. Species show a variety of responses that can allow movement or persistence. Conservation and restoration actions have traditionally focused on maintaining or returning species in particular places, but increasingly also include interventions that facilitate movement. Approaches are required that incorporate the fluidity of biotic assemblages into the goals set and interventions deployed.

Integrative Analysis of Desert Dust Size and Abundance Suggests Less Dust Climate Cooling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kok, Jasper F.; Ridley, David A.; Zhou, Qing; Miller, Ron L.; Zhao, Chun; Heald, Colette L.; Ward, Daniel S.; Albani, Samuel; Haustein, Karsten

2017-01-01

Desert dust aerosols affect Earths global energy balance through interactions with radiation, clouds, and ecosystems. But the magnitudes of these effects are so uncertain that it remains unclear whether atmospheric dust has a net warming or cooling effect on global climate. Consequently, it is still uncertain whether large changes in atmospheric dust loading over the past century have slowed or accelerated anthropogenic climate change, and the climate impact of possible future alterations in dust loading is similarly disputed. Here we use an integrative analysis of dust aerosol sizes and abundance to constrain the climatic impact of dust through direct interactions with radiation. Using a combination of observational, experimental, and model data, we find that atmospheric dust is substantially coarser than represented in current climate models. Since coarse dust warms global climate, the dust direct radiative effect (DRE) is likely less cooling than the 0.4 W m superscript 2 estimated by models in a current ensemble. We constrain the dust DRE to -0.20 (-0.48 to +0.20) W m superscript 2, which suggests that the dust DRE produces only about half the cooling that current models estimate, and raises the possibility that dust DRE is actually net warming the planet.

Collapse and rapid resumption of Atlantic meridional circulation linked to deglacial climate changes.

PubMed

McManus, J F; Francois, R; Gherardi, J-M; Keigwin, L D; Brown-Leger, S

2004-04-22

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation is widely believed to affect climate. Changes in ocean circulation have been inferred from records of the deep water chemical composition derived from sedimentary nutrient proxies, but their impact on climate is difficult to assess because such reconstructions provide insufficient constraints on the rate of overturning. Here we report measurements of 231Pa/230Th, a kinematic proxy for the meridional overturning circulation, in a sediment core from the subtropical North Atlantic Ocean. We find that the meridional overturning was nearly, or completely, eliminated during the coldest deglacial interval in the North Atlantic region, beginning with the catastrophic iceberg discharge Heinrich event H1, 17,500 yr ago, and declined sharply but briefly into the Younger Dryas cold event, about 12,700 yr ago. Following these cold events, the 231Pa/230Th record indicates that rapid accelerations of the meridional overturning circulation were concurrent with the two strongest regional warming events during deglaciation. These results confirm the significance of variations in the rate of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation for abrupt climate changes.

Global Warming in the 21st Century: An Alternate Scenario

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hansen, James E.; Sato, Makiko; Ruedy, Reto; Lacis, Andrew; Oinas, Valdar

2000-01-01

A common view is that the current global warming rate will continue or accelerate. But we argue that rapid warming in recent decades has been driven by non-CO2 greenhouse gases (GHGs), such as CFCs, CH4 and N2O, not by the products of fossil fuel burning, CO2 and aerosols, whose positive and negative climate forcings are partially offsetting. The growth rate of non-CO2 GHGs has declined in the past decade. If sources of CH4 and O3 precursors were reduced in the future, the change of climate forcing by non-CO2 GHGs In the next 50 years could be near zero. Combined with a reduction of black carbon emissions and plausible success in slowing CO2 emissions, this could lead to a decline in the rate of global warming, reducing the danger of dramatic climate change. Such a focus on air pollution has practical benefits that unite the interests of developed and developing countries. However, assessment of ongoing and future climate change requires composition-specific longterm global monitoring of aerosol properties.

Survival of Norway spruce remains higher in mixed stands under a dryer and warmer climate.

PubMed

Neuner, Susanne; Albrecht, Axel; Cullmann, Dominik; Engels, Friedrich; Griess, Verena C; Hahn, W Andreas; Hanewinkel, Marc; Härtl, Fabian; Kölling, Christian; Staupendahl, Kai; Knoke, Thomas

2015-02-01

Shifts in tree species distributions caused by climatic change are expected to cause severe losses in the economic value of European forestland. However, this projection disregards potential adaptation options such as tree species conversion, shorter production periods, or establishment of mixed species forests. The effect of tree species mixture has, as yet, not been quantitatively investigated for its potential to mitigate future increases in production risks. For the first time, we use survival time analysis to assess the effects of climate, species mixture and soil condition on survival probabilities for Norway spruce and European beech. Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) models based on an extensive dataset of almost 65,000 trees from the European Forest Damage Survey (FDS)--part of the European-wide Level I monitoring network--predicted a 24% decrease in survival probability for Norway spruce in pure stands at age 120 when unfavorable changes in climate conditions were assumed. Increasing species admixture greatly reduced the negative effects of unfavorable climate conditions, resulting in a decline in survival probabilities of only 7%. We conclude that future studies of forest management under climate change as well as forest policy measures need to take this, as yet unconsidered, strongly advantageous effect of tree species mixture into account. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Relationships between vegetation dynamics and hydroclimatic drivers in the northern high-latitude uplands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, H.; Tetzlaff, D.; Buttle, J. M.; Carey, S. K.; Laudon, H.; McNamara, J. P.; Soulsby, C.; Spence, C.

2015-12-01

IPCC projections show that climate warming will be particularly high in northern high-latitude regions, which has profound ecohydrological implications: a small rise of temperature may result in lower water availability in summer due to less rainfall and more evapotranspiration, increase flooding risks by accelerating melting rates in spring, and more rain rather than snow in winter, etc. These impacts will affect vegetation communities by altering timing of the spring "green-up" and fall "senescence". Change in vegetation water use will feedback to atmospheric and hydrological cycles. Here, we report results from the PLATO "Plant-water interlinkages in northern uplands - mediation of climate change?" project where we investigate water uptake by plants and consequent water availability in northern regions along a cross-regional climate gradient to understand future responses to change in high-latitude uplands. Six sites in Sweden (Krycklan), Canada (Wolf Creek; Baker Creek; Dorset), Scotland (Girnock) and the USA (Dry Creek) span moisture and energy gradients found at high-latitudes. We are presenting preliminary results of vegetation phenology changes from 2000 to 2014 by analysing remote sensing vegetation indices. The relationship between vegetation phenology and climatic drivers (temperature and precipitation) is also investigated.

Building Training Curricula for Accelerating the Use of NOAA Climate Products and Tools

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Timofeyeva-Livezey, M. M.; Meyers, J. C.; Stevermer, A.; Abshire, W. E.; Beller-Simms, N.; Herring, D.

2016-12-01

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) plays a leading role in U.S. intergovernmental efforts on the Climate Data Initiative and the Climate Resilience Toolkit (CRT). CRT (http://toolkit.climate.gov/) is a valuable resource that provides tools, information, and subject matter expertise to decision makers in various sectors, such as agriculture, water resources and transportation, to help them build resilience to our changing climate. In order to make best use of the toolkit and all the resources within it, a training component is critical. The training section helps building users' understanding of the data, science, and impacts of climate variability and change. CRT identifies five steps in building resilience that includes use of appropriate tools to support decision makers depending on their needs. One tool that can be potentially integrated into CRT is NOAA's Local Climate Analysis Tool (LCAT), which provides access to trusted NOAA data and scientifically-sound analysis techniques for doing regional and local climate studies on climate variability and climate change. However, in order for LCAT to be used effectively, we have found an iterative learning approach using specific examples to train users. For example, for LCAT application in analysis of water resources, we use existing CRT case studies for Arizona and Florida water supply users. The Florida example demonstrates primary sensitivity to climate variability impacts, whereas the Arizona example takes into account longer- term climate change. The types of analyses included in LCAT are time series analysis of local climate and the estimated rate of change in the local climate. It also provides a composite analysis to evaluate the relationship between local climate and climate variability events such as El Niño Southern Oscillation, the Pacific North American Index, and other modes of climate variability. This paper will describe the development of a training module for use of LCAT and its integration into CRT. An iterative approach was used that incorporates specific examples of decision making while working with subject matter experts within the water supply community. The recommended strategy is to use a "stepping stone" learning structure to build users knowledge of best practices for use of LCAT.

High risk of permafrost thaw

Treesearch

E.A.G. Schuur; B.W. Abbott; W.B. Bowden; V. Brovkin; P. Camill; J.P. Canadell; F.S. Chapin; T.R. Christensen; J.P. Chanton; P. Ciais; P.M. Crill; B.T. Crosby; C.I. Czimczik; G. Grosse; D.J. Hayes; G. Hugelius; J.D. Jastrow; T. Kleinen; C.D. Koven; G. Krinner; P. Kuhry; D.M. Lawrence; S.M. Natali; C.L. Ping; A. Rinke; W.J. Riley; V.E. Romanovsky; A.B.K. Sannel; C. Schadel; K. Schaefer; Z.M. Subin; C. Tarnocai; M. Turetsky; K. M. Walter-Anthony; C.J. Wilson; S.A. Zimov

2011-01-01

Arctic temperatures are rising fast, and permafrost is thawing. Carbon released into the atmosphere from permafrost soils will accelerate climate change, but the magnitude of this effect remains highly uncertain. Our collective estimate is that carbon will be released more quickly than models suggest, and at levels that are cause for serious concern. We calculate that...

The role of ecosystem-atmosphere interactions in simulated Amazonian precipitation decrease and forest dieback under global climate warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Betts, R. A.; Cox, P. M.; Collins, M.; Harris, P. P.; Huntingford, C.; Jones, C. D.

A suite of simulations with the HadCM3LC coupled climate-carbon cycle model is used to examine the various forcings and feedbacks involved in the simulated precipitation decrease and forest dieback. Rising atmospheric CO2 is found to contribute 20% to the precipitation reduction through the physiological forcing of stomatal closure, with 80% of the reduction being seen when stomatal closure was excluded and only radiative forcing by CO2 was included. The forest dieback exerts two positive feedbacks on the precipitation reduction; a biogeophysical feedback through reduced forest cover suppressing local evaporative water recycling, and a biogeochemical feedback through the release of CO2 contributing to an accelerated global warming. The precipitation reduction is enhanced by 20% by the biogeophysical feedback, and 5% by the carbon cycle feedback from the forest dieback. This analysis helps to explain why the Amazonian precipitation reduction simulated by HadCM3LC is more extreme than that simulated in other GCMs; in the fully-coupled, climate-carbon cycle simulation, approximately half of the precipitation reduction in Amazonia is attributable to a combination of physiological forcing and biogeophysical and global carbon cycle feedbacks, which are generally not included in other GCM simulations of future climate change. The analysis also demonstrates the potential contribution of regional-scale climate and ecosystem change to uncertainties in global CO2 and climate change projections. Moreover, the importance of feedbacks suggests that a human-induced increase in forest vulnerability to climate change may have implications for regional and global scale climate sensitivity.

Impact of climate change on water resources in South Sikkim, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vishwakarma, C. A.; Pant, M.; Asthana, H.; Singh, P.; Rena, V.; Mukherjee, S.

2016-12-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates that the global mean temperature has increased by 0.6 ± 0.2°C since 1861 and predicts an increase of 2 to 4° C over the next 100 years. The direct effect of climate change on groundwater resources depends on the variation in the volume and distribution of groundwater and its recharge. Ingty and Bawa (2012) have summarized the detailed observation of climate change and its impact on biodiversity and natural resources in the Lachen valley, Sikkim using weather-based indicator of climate change like lesser snowfall, shifts in seasonal timing, uneven rainfall, accelerated glacial melt, and drying of water sources. South Sikkim is the most drought-prone area of the state and this is worst hit district by climate change. In Sikkim, more than three-fourths people feel that the water resources are drying up and out of them 60.2% believe that there is less snow at present time rather than the past. The subsurface aquifers are mainly recharged by precipitation or through the interaction of surface water bodies like lakes, glaciers, streams and rivers. But due to the effect of climate change the rate of precipitation and snow cover melting, the water scarcity problem had started. According to Indian Meteorological Department (Namthang AWS, South Sikkim), the annual precipitation has decreased from 2533 mm to 1503 mm. Spring is the main source of water in South Sikkim and most of the spring have become seasonal or dried. The average spring discharge data in the year 2000 was 100.18 l/m and after ten years it decreased by 26.12 l/m. With the decrease in precipitation and spring discharge, the agriculture productivity also get affected and it affect the socio-economic condition of South district. This study looks into various factors impacting the discharge at springs highlighting the effect of climate change induced precipitation pattern and land cover dynamics using SLURP (Semi-distributed Land Use based Runoff Processes).

Effects of Global Change on U.S. Urban Areas: Vulnerabilities, Impacts, and Adaptation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Quattrochi, Dale A.; Wilbanks, Thomas J.; Kirshen, Paul; Romero-Lnkao, Patricia; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Ruth, Matthias; Solecki, William; Tarr, Joel

2007-01-01

Human settlements, both large and small, are where the vast majority of people on the Earth live. Expansion of cities both in population and areal extent, is a relentless process that will accelerate in the 21st century. As a consequence of urban growth both in the United States and around the globe, it is important to develop an understanding of how urbanization will affect the local and regional environment. Of equal importance, however, is the assessment of how cities will be impacted by the looming prospects of global climate change and climate variability. The potential impacts of climate change and variability has recently been annunciated by the IPCC's "Climate Change 2007" report. Moreover, the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) is preparing a series of "Synthesis and Assessment Products" (SAPs) reports to support informed discussion and decision making regarding climate change and variability by policy matters, resource managers, stakeholders, the media, and the general public. We are authors on a SAP describing the effects of global climate change on human settlements. This paper will present the elements of our SAP report that relate to what vulnerabilities and impacts will occur, what adaptation responses may take place, and what possible effects on settlement patterns and characteristics will potentially arise, on human settlements in the U.S. as a result of climate change and climate variability. We will also present some recommendations about what should be done to further research on how climate change and variability will impact human settlements in the U.S., as well as how to engage government officials, policy and decision makers, and the general public in understanding the implications of climate change and variability on the local and regional levels. Additionally, we wish to explore how technology such as remote sensing data coupled with modeling, can be employed as synthesis tools for deriving insight across a spectrum of impacts (e.g. public health, urban planning for mitigation strategies) on how cities can cope and adapt to climate change and variability. This latter point parallels the concepts and ideas presented in the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, Decadal Survey report on "Earth Science Applications from Space: National Imperatives for the Next Decade and Beyond" wherein the analysis of the impacts of climate change and variability, human health, and land use change are listed as key areas for development of future Earth observing remote sensing systems.

Climate-driven disturbances in the San Juan River sub-basin of the Colorado River

DOE PAGES

Bennett, Katrina E.; Bohn, Theodore J.; Solander, Kurt; ...

2018-01-26

Accelerated climate change and associated forest disturbances in the southwestern USA are anticipated to have substantial impacts on regional water resources. Few studies have quantified the impact of both climate change and land cover disturbances on water balances on the basin scale, and none on the regional scale. In this work, we evaluate the impacts of forest disturbances and climate change on a headwater basin to the Colorado River, the San Juan River watershed, using a robustly calibrated (Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency 0.76) hydrologic model run with updated formulations that improve estimates of evapotranspiration for semi-arid regions. Our results show that futuremore » disturbances will have a substantial impact on streamflow with implications for water resource management. Our findings are in contradiction with conventional thinking that forest disturbances reduce evapotranspiration and increase streamflow. In this study, annual average regional streamflow under the coupled climate–disturbance scenarios is at least 6–11 % lower than those scenarios accounting for climate change alone; for forested zones of the San Juan River basin, streamflow is 15–21 % lower. The monthly signals of altered streamflow point to an emergent streamflow pattern related to changes in forests of the disturbed systems. Exacerbated reductions of mean and low flows under disturbance scenarios indicate a high risk of low water availability for forested headwater systems of the Colorado River basin. Furthermore, these findings also indicate that explicit representation of land cover disturbances is required in modeling efforts that consider the impact of climate change on water resources.« less

Synergistic Ecoclimate Teleconnections from Forest Loss in Different Regions Structure Global Ecological Responses

PubMed Central

Garcia, Elizabeth S.; Swann, Abigail L. S.; Villegas, Juan C.; Breshears, David D.; Law, Darin J.; Saleska, Scott R.; Stark, Scott C.

2016-01-01

Forest loss in hotspots around the world impacts not only local climate where loss occurs, but also influences climate and vegetation in remote parts of the globe through ecoclimate teleconnections. The magnitude and mechanism of remote impacts likely depends on the location and distribution of forest loss hotspots, but the nature of these dependencies has not been investigated. We use global climate model simulations to estimate the distribution of ecologically-relevant climate changes resulting from forest loss in two hotspot regions: western North America (wNA), which is experiencing accelerated dieoff, and the Amazon basin, which is subject to high rates of deforestation. The remote climatic and ecological net effects of simultaneous forest loss in both regions differed from the combined effects of loss from the two regions simulated separately, as evident in three impacted areas. Eastern South American Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) increased due to changes in seasonal rainfall associated with Amazon forest loss and changes in temperature related to wNA forest loss. Eurasia’s GPP declined with wNA forest loss due to cooling temperatures increasing soil ice volume. Southeastern North American productivity increased with simultaneous forest loss, but declined with only wNA forest loss due to changes in VPD. Our results illustrate the need for a new generation of local-to-global scale analyses to identify potential ecoclimate teleconnections, their underlying mechanisms, and most importantly, their synergistic interactions, to predict the responses to increasing forest loss under future land use change and climate change. PMID:27851740

Synergistic Ecoclimate Teleconnections from Forest Loss in Different Regions Structure Global Ecological Responses

DOE PAGES

Garcia, Elizabeth S.; Swann, Abigail L. S.; Villegas, Juan C.; ...

2016-11-16

Forest loss in hotspots around the world impacts not only local climate where loss occurs, but also influences climate and vegetation in remote parts of the globe through ecoclimate teleconnections. The magnitude and mechanism of remote impacts likely depends on the location and distribution of forest loss hotspots, but the nature of these dependencies has not been investigated. We use global climate model simulations to estimate the distribution of ecologically-relevant climate changes resulting from forest loss in two hotspot regions: western North America (wNA), which is experiencing accelerated dieoff, and the Amazon basin, which is subject to high rates ofmore » deforestation. The remote climatic and ecological net effects of simultaneous forest loss in both regions differed from the combined effects of loss from the two regions simulated separately, as evident in three impacted areas. Eastern South American Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) increased due to changes in seasonal rainfall associated with Amazon forest loss and changes in temperature related to wNA forest loss. Eurasia's GPP declined with wNA forest loss due to cooling temperatures increasing soil ice volume. Southeastern North American productivity increased with simultaneous forest loss, but declined with only wNA forest loss due to changes in VPD. In conclusion, our results illustrate the need for a new generation of local-to-global scale analyses to identify potential ecoclimate teleconnections, their underlying mechanisms, and most importantly, their synergistic interactions, to predict the responses to increasing forest loss under future land use change and climate change.« less

Climate-driven disturbances in the San Juan River sub-basin of the Colorado River

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bennett, Katrina E.; Bohn, Theodore J.; Solander, Kurt

Accelerated climate change and associated forest disturbances in the southwestern USA are anticipated to have substantial impacts on regional water resources. Few studies have quantified the impact of both climate change and land cover disturbances on water balances on the basin scale, and none on the regional scale. In this work, we evaluate the impacts of forest disturbances and climate change on a headwater basin to the Colorado River, the San Juan River watershed, using a robustly calibrated (Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency 0.76) hydrologic model run with updated formulations that improve estimates of evapotranspiration for semi-arid regions. Our results show that futuremore » disturbances will have a substantial impact on streamflow with implications for water resource management. Our findings are in contradiction with conventional thinking that forest disturbances reduce evapotranspiration and increase streamflow. In this study, annual average regional streamflow under the coupled climate–disturbance scenarios is at least 6–11 % lower than those scenarios accounting for climate change alone; for forested zones of the San Juan River basin, streamflow is 15–21 % lower. The monthly signals of altered streamflow point to an emergent streamflow pattern related to changes in forests of the disturbed systems. Exacerbated reductions of mean and low flows under disturbance scenarios indicate a high risk of low water availability for forested headwater systems of the Colorado River basin. Furthermore, these findings also indicate that explicit representation of land cover disturbances is required in modeling efforts that consider the impact of climate change on water resources.« less

Synergistic Ecoclimate Teleconnections from Forest Loss in Different Regions Structure Global Ecological Responses

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Garcia, Elizabeth S.; Swann, Abigail L. S.; Villegas, Juan C.

Forest loss in hotspots around the world impacts not only local climate where loss occurs, but also influences climate and vegetation in remote parts of the globe through ecoclimate teleconnections. The magnitude and mechanism of remote impacts likely depends on the location and distribution of forest loss hotspots, but the nature of these dependencies has not been investigated. We use global climate model simulations to estimate the distribution of ecologically-relevant climate changes resulting from forest loss in two hotspot regions: western North America (wNA), which is experiencing accelerated dieoff, and the Amazon basin, which is subject to high rates ofmore » deforestation. The remote climatic and ecological net effects of simultaneous forest loss in both regions differed from the combined effects of loss from the two regions simulated separately, as evident in three impacted areas. Eastern South American Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) increased due to changes in seasonal rainfall associated with Amazon forest loss and changes in temperature related to wNA forest loss. Eurasia's GPP declined with wNA forest loss due to cooling temperatures increasing soil ice volume. Southeastern North American productivity increased with simultaneous forest loss, but declined with only wNA forest loss due to changes in VPD. In conclusion, our results illustrate the need for a new generation of local-to-global scale analyses to identify potential ecoclimate teleconnections, their underlying mechanisms, and most importantly, their synergistic interactions, to predict the responses to increasing forest loss under future land use change and climate change.« less

Overview of different aspects of climate change effects on soils

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Qafoku, Nikolla P.

2014-08-01

Climate change [i.e., high atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2) concentrations (≥400 ppm); increasing air temperatures (2-4°C or greater); significant and/or abrupt changes in daily, seasonal, and inter-annual temperature; changes in the wet/dry cycles; intensive rainfall and/or heavy storms; extended periods of drought; extreme frost; heat waves and increased fire frequency] is and will significantly affect soil properties and fertility, water resources, food quantity and quality, and environmental quality. Biotic processes that consume atmospheric CO 2 and create organic carbon (C) that is either reprocessed to CO 2 or stored in soils, are the subject of active current investigations with greatmore » concern over the influence of climate change. In addition, abiotic C cycling and its influence on the inorganic C pool in soils is a fundamental global process in which acidic atmospheric CO 2 participates in the weathering of carbonate and silicate minerals, ultimately delivering bicarbonate and Ca 2+ or other cations that precipitate in the form of carbonates in soils or are transported to the rivers, lakes, and oceans. Soil responses to climate change will be complex, and there are many uncertainties and unresolved issues. The objective of the review is to initiate and further stimulate a discussion about some important and challenging aspects of climate-change effects on soils, such as accelerated weathering of soil minerals and resulting C and elemental fluxes in and out of soils, soil/geo-engineering methods used to increase C sequestration in soils, soil organic matter (SOM) protection, transformation and mineralization, and SOM temperature sensitivity. This review reports recent discoveries and identifies key research needs required to understand the effects of climate change on soils.« less

Accelerated wastage of the Monte Perdido Glacier in the Spanish Pyrenees during recent stationary climatic conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

López-Moreno, J. I.; Revuelto, J.; Rico, I.; Chueca-Cía, J.; Julián, A.; Serreta, A.; Serrano, E.; Vicente-Serrano, S. M.; Azorín-Molina, C.; Alonso-González, E.; García-Ruiz, J. M.

2015-09-01

This paper analyzes the evolution of the Monte Perdido Glacier, the third largest glacier of the Pyrenees, from 1981 to the present. We assessed the evolution of the glacier's surface area by use of aerial photographs from 1981, 1999, and 2006, and changes in ice volume by geodetic methods with digital elevation models (DEMs) generated from topographic maps (1981 and 1999), airborne LIDAR (2010) and terrestrial laser scanning (TLS, 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2014). We interpreted the changes in the glacier based on climate data from a nearby meteorological station. The results indicate an accelerated degradation of this glacier after 2000, with a rate of ice surface loss that was almost three-times greater from 2000 to 2006 than for earlier periods, and a doubling of the rate of ice volume loss from 1999 to 2010 (the ice depth decreased 8.98 ± 1.8 m, -0.72 ± 0.14 m w.e. yr-1) compared to 1981 to 1999 (the ice depth decreased 8.35 ± 2.12 m, -0.39 ± 0.1 m w.e. yr-1). This loss of glacial ice has continued from 2011 to 2014 (the ice depth decreased 2.1 ± 0.4 m, -0.64 ± 0.36 m w.e. yr-1). Local climatic changes during the study period cannot explain the acceleration in wastage rate of this glacier, because local precipitation and snow accumulation increased slightly, and local air temperature during the ablation period did not significantly increase. The accelerated degradation of this glacier in recent years can be explained by the lack of equilibrium between the glacier and the current climatic conditions. In particular, the average air temperature increased by at least 0.9 °C in this region since the end of the Little Ice Age (LIA) in the mid-1800s. Thus, this glacier shrinks dramatically during years with low accumulation or high air temperatures during the ablation season, but cannot recover during years with high accumulation or low air temperatures during the ablation season. The most recent TLS data support this interpretation. These data indicated that two consecutive markedly anomalous wet winters and cool summers (2012-13 and 2013-14) led to near zero mass balance conditions, with significant losses of ice in some areas. These anomalous periods could not counteract the dramatic shrinkage that occurred during the dry and warm period of 2011-2012.

Epoch-based likelihood models reveal no evidence for accelerated evolution of viviparity in squamate reptiles in response to cenozoic climate change.

PubMed

King, Benedict; Lee, Michael S Y

2015-09-01

A broad scale analysis of the evolution of viviparity across nearly 4,000 species of squamates revealed that origins increase in frequency toward the present, raising the question of whether rates of change have accelerated. We here use simulations to show that the increased frequency is within the range expected given that the number of squamate lineages also increases with time. Novel, epoch-based methods implemented in BEAST (which allow rates of discrete character evolution to vary across time-slices) also give congruent results, with recent epochs having very similar rates to older epochs. Thus, contrary to expectations, there was no accelerated burst of origins of viviparity in response to global cooling during the Cenozoic or glacial cycles during the Plio-Pleistocene. However, if one accepts the conventional view that viviparity is more likely to evolve than to be lost, and also the evidence here that viviparity has evolved with similar regularity throughout the last 200 Ma, then the absence of large, ancient clades of viviparous squamates (analogs to therian mammals) requires explanation. Viviparous squamate lineages might be more prone to extinction than are oviparous lineages, due to their prevalance at high elevations and latitudes and thus greater susceptibility to climate fluctuations. If so, the directional bias in character evolution would be offset by the bias in extinction rates. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

The effects of fire on the thermal stability of permafrost in lowland and upland black spruce forests of interior Alaska in a changing climate

Treesearch

E.E. Jafarov; V.E. Romanovsky; H. Genet; A.D. McGuire; S.S. Marchenko

2013-01-01

Fire is an important factor controlling the composition and thickness of the organic layer in the black spruce forest ecosystems of interior Alaska. Fire that burns the organic layer can trigger dramatic changes in the underlying permafrost, leading to accelerated ground thawing within a relatively short time. In this study, we addressed the following questions. (1)...

Impacts of climate change on biodiversity, ecosystems, and ecosystem services: technical input to the 2013 National Climate Assessment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Staudinger, Michelle D.; Grimm, Nancy B.; Staudt, Amanda; Carter, Shawn L.; Stuart, F. Stuart; Kareiva, Peter; Ruckelshaus, Mary; Stein, Bruce A.

2012-01-01

Ecosystems, and the biodiversity and services they support, are intrinsically dependent on climate. During the twentieth century, climate change has had documented impacts on ecological systems, and impacts are expected to increase as climate change continues and perhaps even accelerates. This technical input to the National Climate Assessment synthesizes our scientific understanding of the way climate change is affecting biodiversity, ecosystems, ecosystem services, and what strategies might be employed to decrease current and future risks. Building on past assessments of how climate change and other stressors are affecting ecosystems in the United States and around the world, we approach the subject from several different perspectives. First, we review the observed and projected impacts on biodiversity, with a focus on genes, species, and assemblages of species. Next, we examine how climate change is affecting ecosystem structural elements—such as biomass, architecture, and heterogeneity—and functions—specifically, as related to the fluxes of energy and matter. People experience climate change impacts on biodiversity and ecosystems as changes in ecosystem services; people depend on ecosystems for resources that are harvested, their role in regulating the movement of materials and disturbances, and their recreational, cultural, and aesthetic value. Thus, we review newly emerging research to determine how human activities and a changing climate are likely to alter the delivery of these ecosystem services. This technical input also examines two cross-cutting topics. First, we recognize that climate change is happening against the backdrop of a wide range of other environmental and anthropogenic stressors, many of which have caused dramatic ecosystem degradation already. This broader range of stressors interacts with climate change, and complicates our abilities to predict and manage the impacts on biodiversity, ecosystems, and the services they support. The second cross-cutting topic is the rapidly advancing field of climate adaptation, where there has been significant progress in developing the conceptual framework, planning approaches, and strategies for safeguarding biodiversity and other ecological resources. At the same time, ecosystem-based adaptation is becoming more prominent as a way to utilize ecosystem services to help human systems adapt to climate change. In this summary, we present key findings of the technical input, focusing on themes that can be found throughout the report. Thus, this summary takes a more integrated look at the question of how climate change is affecting our ecological resources, the implications for humans, and possible response strategies. This integrated approach better reflects the impacts of climate in the real world, where changes in ecosystem structure or function will alter the viability of different species and the efficacy of ecosystem services. Likewise, adaptation to climate change will simultaneously address a range of conservation goals. Case studies are used to illustrate this complete picture throughout the report; a snapshot of one case study, 2011 Las Conchas, New Mexico Fire, is included in this summary.

Linking climate change and biological invasions: Ocean warming facilitates nonindigenous species invasions.

PubMed

Stachowicz, John J; Terwin, Jeffrey R; Whitlatch, Robert B; Osman, Richard W

2002-11-26

The spread of exotic species and climate change are among the most serious global environmental threats. Each independently causes considerable ecological damage, yet few data are available to assess whether changing climate might facilitate invasions by favoring introduced over native species. Here, we compare our long-term record of weekly sessile marine invertebrate recruitment with interannual variation in water temperature to assess the likely effect of climate change on the success and spread of introduced species. For the three most abundant introduced species of ascidian (sea squirt), the timing of the initiation of recruitment was strongly negatively correlated with winter water temperature, indicating that invaders arrived earlier in the season in years with warmer winters. Total recruitment of introduced species during the following summer also was positively correlated with winter water temperature. In contrast, the magnitude of native ascidian recruitment was negatively correlated with winter temperature (more recruitment in colder years) and the timing of native recruitment was unaffected. In manipulative laboratory experiments, two introduced compound ascidians grew faster than a native species, but only at temperatures near the maximum observed in summer. These data suggest that the greatest effects of climate change on biotic communities may be due to changing maximum and minimum temperatures rather than annual means. By giving introduced species an earlier start, and increasing the magnitude of their growth and recruitment relative to natives, global warming may facilitate a shift to dominance by nonnative species, accelerating the homogenization of the global biota.

Forcings and feedbacks by land ecosystem changes on climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Betts, R. A.

2006-12-01

Vegetation change is involved in climate change through both forcing and feedback processes. Emissions of CO{2} from past net deforestation are estimated to have contributed approximately 0.22 0.51 Wm - 2 to the overall 1.46 Wm - 2 radiative forcing by anthropogenic increases in CO{2} up to the year 2000. Deforestation-induced increases in global mean surface albedo are estimated to exert a radiative forcing of 0 to -0.2 Wm - 2, and dust emissions from land use may exert a radiative forcing of between approximately +0.1 and -0.2 Wm - 2. Changes in the fluxes of latent and sensible heat due to tropical deforestation are simulated to have exerted other local warming effects which cannot be quantified in terms of a Wm - 2 radiative forcing, with the potential for remote effects through changes in atmospheric circulation. With tropical deforestation continuing rapidly, radiative forcing by surface albedo change may become less useful as a measure of the forcing of climate change by changes in the physical properties of the land surface. Although net global deforestation is continuing, future scenarios used for climate change prediction suggest that fossil fuel emissions of CO{2} may continue to increase at a greater rate than land use emissions and therefore continue to increase in dominance as the main radiative forcing. The CO{2} rise may be accelerated by up to 66% by feedbacks arising from global soil carbon loss and forest dieback in Amazonia as a consequence of climate change, and Amazon forest dieback may also exert feedbacks through changes in the local water cycle and increases in dust emissions.

Accelerating the domestication of forest trees in a changing world.

PubMed

Harfouche, Antoine; Meilan, Richard; Kirst, Matias; Morgante, Michele; Boerjan, Wout; Sabatti, Maurizio; Scarascia Mugnozza, Giuseppe

2012-02-01

In light of impending water and arable land shortages, population growth and climate change, it is more important than ever to examine how forest tree domestication can be accelerated to sustainably meet future demands for wood, biomass, paper, fuel and biomaterials. Because of long breeding cycles, tree domestication cannot be rapidly achieved through traditional genetic improvement methods alone. Integrating modern genetic and genomic techniques with conventional breeding will expedite tree domestication. Breeders will only embrace these technologies if they are cost-effective and readily accessible, and forest landowners will only adopt end-products that meet with regulatory approval and public acceptance. All parties involved must work together to achieve these objectives for the benefit of society. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling the role of groundwater and vegetation in the hydrological response of tropical glaciated watersheds to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ng, G. H. C.; Wickert, A. D.; McLaughlin, R.; La Frenierre, J.; Liess, S.; Saberi, L.

2016-12-01

Climate change projections show greater rates at higher elevations, making tropical glaciated regions some of the most vulnerable hydrological systems and the earliest windows into changing conditions in mountainous watersheds. Many of the subsistence agrarian communities below Volcán Chimborazo, Ecuador, experience water stress, heightening the urgency to understand the hydrological impacts of climate change. Previous hydrochemical and physical observations suggest that a significant fraction of glacial melt may first recharge underlying groundwater before discharging to streams at lower elevations. This has important implications for tracking hydrological response to climate change, due to differences in the spatiotemporal behavior of surface water vs. groundwater. However, differentiating meltwater-sourced and precipitation-sourced groundwater throughout the watershed poses a challenge in elucidating the influence of accelerated but finite glacial melt on streamflow. In addition to glacial melt, recently noted upslope vegetation migration on Chimborazo will likely complicate future predictions of water availability by influencing the relative amounts of groundwater sources and changing discharge through altered evapotranspiration along riparian zones. To investigate the roles of groundwater pathways and vegetation on glacial melt contributions to streamflow, we implement the coupled groundwater/rainfall-runoff model GSFLOW. We infer hydrogeological model inputs from geological maps of Chimborazo and vegetation properties from a combination of remotely sensed imagery and in-situ surveys. Dynamically downscaled meteorological state variables, checked against field data, force the model. Such a model enables the quantification of the current meltwater contribution to streamflow at critical water extraction points and allows us to probe potential meltwater and water resource changes under future climate change scenarios.

Life stage influences the resistance and resilience of black mangrove forests to winter climate extremes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Osland, Michael J.; Day, Richard H.; From, Andrew S.; McCoy, Megan L.; McLeod, Jennie L.; Kelleway, Jeffrey

2015-01-01

In subtropical coastal wetlands on multiple continents, climate change-induced reductions in the frequency and intensity of freezing temperatures are expected to lead to the expansion of woody plants (i.e., mangrove forests) at the expense of tidal grasslands (i.e., salt marshes). Since some ecosystem goods and services would be affected by mangrove range expansion, there is a need to better understand mangrove sensitivity to freezing temperatures as well as the implications of changing winter climate extremes for mangrove-salt marsh interactions. In this study, we investigated the following questions: (1) how does plant life stage (i.e., ontogeny) influence the resistance and resilience of black mangrove (Avicennia germinans) forests to freezing temperatures; and (2) how might differential life stage responses to freeze events affect the rate of mangrove expansion and salt marsh displacement due to climate change? To address these questions, we quantified freeze damage and recovery for different life stages (seedling, short tree, and tall tree) following extreme winter air temperature events that occurred near the northern range limit of A. germinans in North America. We found that life stage affects black mangrove forest resistance and resilience to winter climate extremes in a nonlinear fashion. Resistance to winter climate extremes was high for tall A. germinans trees and seedlings, but lowest for short trees. Resilience was highest for tall A. germinans trees. These results suggest the presence of positive feedbacks and indicate that climate-change induced decreases in the frequency and intensity of extreme minimum air temperatures could lead to a nonlinear increase in mangrove forest resistance and resilience. This feedback could accelerate future mangrove expansion and salt marsh loss at rates beyond what would be predicted from climate change alone. In general terms, our study highlights the importance of accounting for differential life stage responses and positive feedbacks when evaluating the ecological effects of changes in the frequency and magnitude of climate extremes.

Near-term acceleration in the rate of temperature change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Steven J.; Edmonds, James; Hartin, Corinne A.; Mundra, Anupriya; Calvin, Katherine

2015-04-01

Anthropogenically driven climate changes, which are expected to impact human and natural systems, are often expressed in terms of global-mean temperature. The rate of climate change over multi-decadal scales is also important, with faster rates of change resulting in less time for human and natural systems to adapt. We find that present trends in greenhouse-gas and aerosol emissions are now moving the Earth system into a regime in terms of multi-decadal rates of change that are unprecedented for at least the past 1,000 years. The rate of global-mean temperature increase in the CMIP5 (ref. ) archive over 40-year periods increases to 0.25 +/- 0.05 °C (1σ) per decade by 2020, an average greater than peak rates of change during the previous one to two millennia. Regional rates of change in Europe, North America and the Arctic are higher than the global average. Research on the impacts of such near-term rates of change is urgently needed.

Coupled European and Greenland last glacial dust activity driven by North Atlantic climate

PubMed Central

Stevens, Thomas; Molnár, Mihály; Demény, Attila; Lambert, Fabrice; Varga, György; Páll-Gergely, Barna; Buylaert, Jan-Pieter; Kovács, János

2017-01-01

Centennial-scale mineral dust peaks in last glacial Greenland ice cores match the timing of lowest Greenland temperatures, yet little is known of equivalent changes in dust-emitting regions, limiting our understanding of dust−climate interaction. Here, we present the most detailed and precise age model for European loess dust deposits to date, based on 125 accelerator mass spectrometry 14C ages from Dunaszekcső, Hungary. The record shows that variations in glacial dust deposition variability on centennial–millennial timescales in east central Europe and Greenland were synchronous within uncertainty. We suggest that precipitation and atmospheric circulation changes were likely the major influences on European glacial dust activity and propose that European dust emissions were modulated by dominant phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation, which had a major influence on vegetation and local climate of European dust source regions. PMID:29180406

Climate change and the Delta

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dettinger, Michael; Anderson, Jamie; Anderson, Michael L.; Brown, Larry R.; Cayan, Daniel; Maurer, Edwin P.

2016-01-01

Anthropogenic climate change amounts to a rapidly approaching, “new” stressor in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta system. In response to California’s extreme natural hydroclimatic variability, complex water-management systems have been developed, even as the Delta’s natural ecosystems have been largely devastated. Climate change is projected to challenge these management and ecological systems in different ways that are characterized by different levels of uncertainty. For example, there is high certainty that climate will warm by about 2°C more (than late-20th-century averages) by mid-century and about 4°C by end of century, if greenhouse-gas emissions continue their current rates of acceleration. Future precipitation changes are much less certain, with as many climate models projecting wetter conditions as drier. However, the same projections agree that precipitation will be more intense when storms do arrive, even as more dry days will separate storms. Warmer temperatures will likely enhance evaporative demands and raise water temperatures. Consequently, climate change is projected to yield both more extreme flood risks and greater drought risks. Sea level rise (SLR) during the 20th century was about 22cm, and is projected to increase by at least 3-fold this century. SLR together with land subsidence threatens the Delta with greater vulnerabilities to inundation and salinity intrusion. Effects on the Delta ecosystem that are traceable to warming include SLR, reduced snowpack, earlier snowmelt and larger storm-driven streamflows, warmer and longer summers, warmer summer water temperatures, and water-quality changes. These changes and their uncertainties will challenge the operations of water projects and uses throughout the Delta’s watershed and delivery areas. Although the effects of climate change on Delta ecosystems may be profound, the end results are difficult to predict, except that native species will fare worse than invaders. Successful preparation for the coming changes will require greater integration of monitoring, modeling, and decision making across time, variables, and space than has been historically normal.

Permafrost carbon-climate feedbacks accelerate global warming

PubMed Central

Koven, Charles D.; Ringeval, Bruno; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Ciais, Philippe; Cadule, Patricia; Khvorostyanov, Dmitry; Krinner, Gerhard; Tarnocai, Charles

2011-01-01

Permafrost soils contain enormous amounts of organic carbon, which could act as a positive feedback to global climate change due to enhanced respiration rates with warming. We have used a terrestrial ecosystem model that includes permafrost carbon dynamics, inhibition of respiration in frozen soil layers, vertical mixing of soil carbon from surface to permafrost layers, and CH4 emissions from flooded areas, and which better matches new circumpolar inventories of soil carbon stocks, to explore the potential for carbon-climate feedbacks at high latitudes. Contrary to model results for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4), when permafrost processes are included, terrestrial ecosystems north of 60°N could shift from being a sink to a source of CO2 by the end of the 21st century when forced by a Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 climate change scenario. Between 1860 and 2100, the model response to combined CO2 fertilization and climate change changes from a sink of 68 Pg to a 27 + -7 Pg sink to 4 + -18 Pg source, depending on the processes and parameter values used. The integrated change in carbon due to climate change shifts from near zero, which is within the range of previous model estimates, to a climate-induced loss of carbon by ecosystems in the range of 25 + -3 to 85 + -16 Pg C, depending on processes included in the model, with a best estimate of a 62 + -7 Pg C loss. Methane emissions from high-latitude regions are calculated to increase from 34 Tg CH4/y to 41–70 Tg CH4/y, with increases due to CO2 fertilization, permafrost thaw, and warming-induced increased CH4 flux densities partially offset by a reduction in wetland extent. PMID:21852573

How We Got to the Northern Hemisphere Ice Ages: Late Miocene Global Cooling and Plate Tectonic CO2 Forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herbert, T.; Dalton, C. A.; Carchedi, C.

2017-12-01

The evolution of Earth's climate between "refrigeration" of East Antarctica and the onset of cyclic Northern Hemisphere glaciation spanned more than 11 Myr. In the latest Miocene (Messinian) time, approximately half way on this journey, changes on land, ranging from the expansion of arid zones to major floral and faunal ecosystem shifts, accelerated. Recent compilations of marine surface temperatures reveal that global cooling from the Miocene Optimum (14-16Ma) also accelerated in late Miocene (7-5.35 Ma) time to reach temperatures not much above Holocene conditions. Both hemispheres cooled in parallel, with the changes amplified at higher latitudes in comparison to the tropics. Despite the strong circumstantial case for CO2 decline as the dominant cause of late Miocene climatic and evolutionary change, proxy indicators of CO2concentrations paint an equivocal picture of greenhouse forcing. Here we provide evidence that global sea floor spreading (SFS) rates decelerated at exactly the times of major climatic cooling, linking a decline in tectonic degassing (at both subduction zones and mid-ocean ridges) to fundamental shifts in the global carbon cycle. Our work utilizes newly available global compilations of seafloor fabric and marine magnetic anomalies provided by the NSF-funded Global Seafloor Fabric and Magnetic Lineation Data Base Project. Previous global compilations of SFS typically binned estimates over 10 Myr increments, losing critical resolution on the timescale of late Neogene climate changes. We further improve the signal:noise of SFS estimates by incorporating recent advances in the astronomical calibration of the Miocene geomagnetic polarity timescale. We use two approaches to compile spreading rate estimates over the past 20 Myr at each spreading system: optimized finite rotation calculations, and averages of sea floor-spreading derived from the distances of magnetic lineations along flow lines on the sea floor. Weighted by ridge length, we find an 25% reduction in global SFS since 15 Ma, with the decline most pronounced in the interval 8-5.5 Ma and approximate stasis in the Plio-Pleistocene. Comparison of SFS to global temperature estimates suggest a short time delay (unresolvable at the sample resolution) between tectonic forcing and climate response.

An integrated hydrological modeling approach for detection and attribution of climatic and human impacts on coastal water resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, Dapeng; Zheng, Yi; Mao, Yixin; Zhang, Aijing; Wu, Bin; Li, Jinguo; Tian, Yong; Wu, Xin

2018-02-01

Water resources in coastal areas can be profoundly influenced by both climate change and human activities. These climatic and human impacts are usually intertwined and difficult to isolate. This study developed an integrated model-based approach for detection and attribution of climatic and human impacts and applied this approach to the Luanhe Plain, a typical coastal area in northern China. An integrated surface water-groundwater model was developed for the study area using GSFLOW (coupled groundwater and surface-water flow). Model calibration and validation were performed for background years between 1975 and 2000. The variation in water resources between the 1980s and 1990s was then quantitatively attributed to climate variability, groundwater pumping and changes in upstream inflow. Climate scenarios for future years (2075-2100) were also developed by downscaling the projections in CMIP5. Potential water resource responses to climate change, as well as their uncertainty, were then investigated through integrated modeling. The study results demonstrated the feasibility and value of the integrated modeling-based analysis for water resource management in areas with complex surface water-groundwater interaction. Specific findings for the Luanhe Plain included the following: (1) During the historical period, upstream inflow had the most significant impact on river outflow to the sea, followed by climate variability, whereas groundwater pumping was the least influential. (2) The increase in groundwater pumping had a dominant influence on the decline in groundwater change, followed by climate variability. (3) Synergetic and counteractive effects among different impacting factors, while identified, were not significant, which implied that the interaction among different factors was not very strong in this case. (4) It is highly probable that future climate change will accelerate groundwater depletion in the study area, implying that strict regulations for groundwater pumping are imperative for adaptation.

Remotely Sensed Northern Vegetation Response to Changing Climate: Growing Season and Productivity Perspective

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ganguly, S.; Park, Taejin; Choi, Sungho; Bi, Jian; Knyazikhin, Yuri; Myneni, Ranga

2016-01-01

Vegetation growing season and maximum photosynthetic state determine spatiotemporal variability of seasonal total gross primary productivity of vegetation. Recent warming induced impacts accelerate shifts on growing season and physiological status over Northern vegetated land. Thus, understanding and quantifying these changes are very important. Here, we first investigate how vegetation growing season and maximum photosynthesis state are evolved and how such components contribute on inter-annual variation of seasonal total gross primary productivity. Furthermore, seasonally different response of northern vegetation to changing temperature and water availability is also investigated. We utilized both long-term remotely sensed data to extract larger scale growing season metrics (growing season start, end and duration) and productivity (i.e., growing season summed vegetation index, GSSVI) for answering these questions. We find that regionally diverged growing season shift and maximum photosynthetic state contribute differently characterized productivity inter-annual variability and trend. Also seasonally different response of vegetation gives different view of spatially varying interaction between vegetation and climate. These results highlight spatially and temporally varying vegetation dynamics and are reflective of biome-specific responses of northern vegetation to changing climate.

Think Piece: Cognitive Justice and Integration without Duress. The Future of Development Education--Perspectives from the South

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Odora Hoppers, Catherine A.

2015-01-01

"In a time of unacceptable global injustice, growing inequalities in the distribution of power, accelerating climate change, and unwavering racism and social exclusion, we are today facing the biggest challenges of human history" (European Conference on Intercultural Dialogue in Development Education, 2008: 1). A favourable wind is…

An analysis of ash and isotopic carbon discrimination (delta13C) methods to evaluate water use efficiency in apple

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Apple cultivars are selected for fruit quality, disease and insect resistance, not water use efficiency (WUE), however, the need for more water use efficient crops is accelerating due to climate change and increased competition for water resources. On a whole plant basis, calculation of water use e...

Towards a macrosystems approach for successful coastal ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Managing coastal resources for resiliency and sustainability often requires integrative, multi-disciplinary approaches across varying spatial and temporal scales to engage stakeholders and inform decision-makers. We discuss case studies integrating wetland ecology, economics, sociology and other disciplines to help solve management problems, especially those concerning increasing nutrient loads and climate change (e.g., accelerated sea level rise, increased flooding, warming temperatures). One goal of the macrosystems approach is to provide the science necessary to assess tradeoffs for different management, restoration, and climate adaptation actions. In the first case study we examine the conversion of a cranberry farm in New England to a freshwater wetland with connectivity to Cape Cod Bay (MA). A second example examines climate adaptation actions in coastal wetlands of the northeastern US to mitigate accelerated sea level rise. Various restoration actions (e.g., dam removal, hydrological engineering) and climate adaptation interventions (e.g., living shoreline, thin layer sediment application) are underway, and we discuss the adaptive management and macrosystems approaches for each example. One focus of management actions is the provision of select ecosystem services. For each study, we discuss tradeoffs in the provision of services from different actions. By presenting examples of how a macrosystems approach works in practice, we hope to show its transferabi

Will a warmer and wetter future cause extinction of native Hawaiian forest birds?

PubMed

Liao, Wei; Elison Timm, Oliver; Zhang, Chunxi; Atkinson, Carter T; LaPointe, Dennis A; Samuel, Michael D

2015-12-01

Isolation of the Hawaiian archipelago produced a highly endemic and unique avifauna. Avian malaria (Plasmodium relictum), an introduced mosquito-borne pathogen, is a primary cause of extinctions and declines of these endemic honeycreepers. Our research assesses how global climate change will affect future malaria risk and native bird populations. We used an epidemiological model to evaluate future bird-mosquito-malaria dynamics in response to alternative climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Climate changes during the second half of the century accelerate malaria transmission and cause a dramatic decline in bird abundance. Different temperature and precipitation patterns produce divergent trajectories where native birds persist with low malaria infection under a warmer and dryer projection (RCP4.5), but suffer high malaria infection and severe reductions under hot and dry (RCP8.5) or warm and wet (A1B) futures. We conclude that future global climate change will cause significant decreases in the abundance and diversity of remaining Hawaiian bird communities. Because these effects appear unlikely before mid-century, natural resource managers have time to implement conservation strategies to protect this unique avifauna from further decimation. Similar climatic drivers for avian and human malaria suggest that mitigation strategies for Hawai'i have broad application to human health. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Will a warmer and wetter future cause extinction of native Hawaiian forest birds?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Liao, Wei; Timm, Oliver Elison; Zhang, Chunxi; Atkinson, Carter T.; LaPointe, Dennis; Samuel, Michael D.

2015-01-01

Isolation of the Hawaiian archipelago produced a highly endemic and unique avifauna. Avian malaria (Plasmodium relictum), an introduced mosquito-borne pathogen, is a primary cause of extinctions and declines of these endemic honeycreepers. Our research assesses how global climate change will affect future malaria risk and native bird populations. We used an epidemiological model to evaluate future bird-mosquito-malaria dynamics in response to alternative climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Climate changes during the second half of the century accelerate malaria transmission and cause a dramatic decline in bird abundance. Different temperature and precipitation patterns produce divergent trajectories where native birds persist with low malaria infection under a warmer and dryer projection (RCP4.5), but suffer high malaria infection and severe reductions under hot and dry (RCP8.5) or warm and wet (A1B) futures. We conclude that future global climate change will cause significant decreases in the abundance and diversity of remaining Hawaiian bird communities. Because these effects appear unlikely before mid-century, natural resource managers have time to implement conservation strategies to protect this unique avifauna from further decimation. Similar climatic drivers for avian and human malaria suggest that mitigation strategies for Hawai'i have broad application to human health.

21st century climate change in the European Alps--a review.

PubMed

Gobiet, Andreas; Kotlarski, Sven; Beniston, Martin; Heinrich, Georg; Rajczak, Jan; Stoffel, Markus

2014-09-15

Reliable estimates of future climate change in the Alps are relevant for large parts of the European society. At the same time, the complex Alpine region poses considerable challenges to climate models, which translate to uncertainties in the climate projections. Against this background, the present study reviews the state-of-knowledge about 21st century climate change in the Alps based on existing literature and additional analyses. In particular, it explicitly considers the reliability and uncertainty of climate projections. Results show that besides Alpine temperatures, also precipitation, global radiation, relative humidity, and closely related impacts like floods, droughts, snow cover, and natural hazards will be affected by global warming. Under the A1B emission scenario, about 0.25 °C warming per decade until the mid of the 21st century and accelerated 0.36 °C warming per decade in the second half of the century is expected. Warming will probably be associated with changes in the seasonality of precipitation, global radiation, and relative humidity, and more intense precipitation extremes and flooding potential in the colder part of the year. The conditions of currently record breaking warm or hot winter or summer seasons, respectively, may become normal at the end of the 21st century, and there is indication for droughts to become more severe in the future. Snow cover is expected to drastically decrease below 1500-2000 m and natural hazards related to glacier and permafrost retreat are expected to become more frequent. Such changes in climatic parameters and related quantities will have considerable impact on ecosystems and society and will challenge their adaptive capabilities. © 2013. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Profitable solutions to climate, oil, and proliferation.

PubMed

Lovins, Amory B

2010-05-01

Protecting the climate is not costly but profitable (even if avoided climate change is worth zero), mainly because saving fuel costs less than buying fuel. The two biggest opportunities, both sufficiently fast, are oil and electricity. The US, for example, can eliminate its oil use by the 2040s at an average cost of $15 per barrel ($2000), half by redoubled efficiency and half by alternative supplies, and can save three-fourths of its electricity more cheaply than operating a thermal power station. Integrative design permits this by making big energy savings cheaper than small ones, turning traditionally assumed diminishing returns into empirically observed expanding returns. Such efficiency choices accelerate climate-safe, inexhaustible, and resilient energy supply-notably the "micropower" now delivering about a sixth of the world's electricity and 90% of its new electricity. These cheap, fast, market-financeable, globally applicable options offer the most effective, yet most underestimated and overlooked, solutions for climate, proliferation, and poverty.

Future distribution of tundra refugia in northern Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hope, Andrew G.; Waltari, Eric; Payer, David C.; Cook, Joseph A.; Talbot, Sandra L.

2013-01-01

Climate change in the Arctic is a growing concern for natural resource conservation and management as a result of accelerated warming and associated shifts in the distribution and abundance of northern species. We introduce a predictive framework for assessing the future extent of Arctic tundra and boreal biomes in northern Alaska. We use geo-referenced museum specimens to predict the velocity of distributional change into the next century and compare predicted tundra refugial areas with current land-use. The reliability of predicted distributions, including differences between fundamental and realized niches, for two groups of species is strengthened by fossils and genetic signatures of demographic shifts. Evolutionary responses to environmental change through the late Quaternary are generally consistent with past distribution models. Predicted future refugia overlap managed areas and indicate potential hotspots for tundra diversity. To effectively assess future refugia, variable responses among closely related species to climate change warrants careful consideration of both evolutionary and ecological histories.

Climate change amplifies gross nitrogen turnover in montane grasslands of Central Europe in both summer and winter seasons.

PubMed

Wang, Changhui; Chen, Zhe; Unteregelsbacher, Sebastian; Lu, Haiyan; Gschwendtner, Silvia; Gasche, Rainer; Kolar, Allison; Schloter, Michael; Kiese, Ralf; Butterbach-Bahl, Klaus; Dannenmann, Michael

2016-09-01

The carbon- and nitrogen-rich soils of montane grasslands are exposed to above-average warming and to altered precipitation patterns as a result of global change. To investigate the consequences of climatic change for soil nitrogen turnover, we translocated intact plant-soil mesocosms along an elevational gradient, resulting in an increase of the mean annual temperature by approx. 2 °C while decreasing precipitation from approx. 1500 to 1000 mm. Following three years of equilibration, we monitored the dynamics of gross nitrogen turnover and ammonia-oxidizing bacteria (AOB) and archaea (AOA) in soils over an entire year. Gross nitrogen turnover and gene levels of AOB and AOA showed pronounced seasonal dynamics. Both summer and winter periods equally contributed to cumulative annual N turnover. However, highest gross N turnover and abundance of ammonia oxidizers were observed in frozen soil of the climate change site, likely due to physical liberation of organic substrates and their rapid turnover in the unfrozen soil water film. This effect was not observed at the control site, where soil freezing did not occur due to a significant insulating snowpack. Climate change conditions accelerated gross nitrogen mineralization by 250% on average. Increased N mineralization significantly stimulated gross nitrification by AOB rather than by AOA. However, climate change impacts were restricted to the 2-6 cm topsoil and rarely occurred at 12-16 cm depth, where generally much lower N turnover was observed. Our study shows that significant mineralization pulses occur under changing climate, which is likely to result in soil organic matter losses with their associated negative impacts on key soil functions. We also show that N cycling processes in frozen soil can be hot moments for N turnover and thus are of paramount importance for understanding seasonal patterns, annual sum of N turnover and possible climate change feedbacks. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Land Management in the Anthropocene: Is History Still Relevant?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Safford, Hugh D.; Betancourt, Julio L.; Hayward, Gregory D.; Wiens, John A.; Regan, Claudia M.

2008-09-01

Incorporating Historical Ecology and Climate Change Into Land Management; Lansdowne, Virginia, 22-25 April 2008; Ecological restoration, conservation, and land management are often based on comparisons with reference sites or time periods, which are assumed to represent ``natural'' or ``properly functioning'' conditions. Such reference conditions can provide a vision of the conservation or management goal and a means to measure progress toward that vision. Although historical ecology has been used successfully to guide resource management in many parts of the world, the continuing relevance of history is now being questioned. Some scientists doubt that lessons from the past can inform management in what may be a dramatically different future, given profound climate change, accelerated land use, and an onslaught of plant and animal invasions.

Collaborative Research: Improving Decadal Prediction of Arctic Climate Variability and Change Using a Regional Arctic

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gutowski, William J.

This project developed and applied a regional Arctic System model for enhanced decadal predictions. It built on successful research by four of the current PIs with support from the DOE Climate Change Prediction Program, which has resulted in the development of a fully coupled Regional Arctic Climate Model (RACM) consisting of atmosphere, land-hydrology, ocean and sea ice components. An expanded RACM, a Regional Arctic System Model (RASM), has been set up to include ice sheets, ice caps, mountain glaciers, and dynamic vegetation to allow investigation of coupled physical processes responsible for decadal-scale climate change and variability in the Arctic. RASMmore » can have high spatial resolution (~4-20 times higher than currently practical in global models) to advance modeling of critical processes and determine the need for their explicit representation in Global Earth System Models (GESMs). The pan-Arctic region is a key indicator of the state of global climate through polar amplification. However, a system-level understanding of critical arctic processes and feedbacks needs further development. Rapid climate change has occurred in a number of Arctic System components during the past few decades, including retreat of the perennial sea ice cover, increased surface melting of the Greenland ice sheet, acceleration and thinning of outlet glaciers, reduced snow cover, thawing permafrost, and shifts in vegetation. Such changes could have significant ramifications for global sea level, the ocean thermohaline circulation and heat budget, ecosystems, native communities, natural resource exploration, and commercial transportation. The overarching goal of the RASM project has been to advance understanding of past and present states of arctic climate and to improve seasonal to decadal predictions. To do this the project has focused on variability and long-term change of energy and freshwater flows through the arctic climate system. The three foci of this research are: - Changes in the freshwater flux between arctic climate system components resulting from decadal changes in land and sea ice, seasonal snow, vegetation, and ocean circulation. - Changing energetics due to decadal changes in ice mass, vegetation, and air-sea interactions. - The role of small-scale atmospheric and oceanic processes that influence decadal variability. This research has been addressing modes of natural climate variability as well as extreme and rapid climate change. RASM can facilitate studies of climate impacts (e.g., droughts and fires) and of ecosystem adaptations to these impacts.« less

[Paleoclimate of La Guajira, Colombia; by the growth rings of Capparis odoratissima (Capparidaceae)].

PubMed

Ramírez, Jorge Andrés; Ignacio del Valle, Jorge

2011-09-01

There is great concern about the effect of climate change in arid and subarid areas of the tropics. Climate change combined with other anthropogenic activities such as deforestation, fires and over-grazing can accelerate their degradation and, consequently, the increases in losses of biological and economic productivity. Climate models, both local and global, predict that rainfall in the arid Peninsula of La Guajira in the Colombian Caribbean would be reduced and temperature would be increased as a result of climate change. However, as there are only suitable climate records since 1972, it is not possible to verify if, indeed, this is happening. To try to verify the hypothesis of reducing rainfall and rising temperatures we developed a growth ring chronology of Capparis odoratissima in the Middle Peninsula of La Guajira with 17 trees and 45 series which attain 48 years back. We use standard dendrochronological methods that showed statistically significant linear relationship with local climatic variables such as air temperature, sea surface temperature (SST), annual precipitation and wind speed; we also reach to successful relationship of the chronology with global climatic variables as the indices SOI and MEI of the ENSO phenomenon. The transfer functions estimated with the time series (1955 and 2003) do not showed statistically significant trends, indicating that during this period of time the annual precipitation or temperatures have not changed. The annual nature of C. odoratissima growth rings, the possibility of cross-dated among the samples of this species, and the high correlation with local and global climatic variables indicate a high potential of this species for dendrochronological studies in this part of the American continent.

Analysis of the El Niño/La Niña-Southern Oscillation variability and malaria in the Estado Sucre, Venezuela.

PubMed

Delgado-Petrocelli, Laura; Córdova, Karenia; Camardiel, Alberto; Aguilar, Víctor H; Hernández, Denise; Ramos, Santiago

2012-09-01

The last decade has seen an unprecedented, worldwide acceleration of environmental and climate changes. These processes impact the dynamics of natural systems, which include components associated with human communities such as vector-borne diseases. The dynamics of environmental and climate variables, altered by global change as reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, affect the distribution of many tropical diseases. Complex systems, e.g. the El Niño/La Niña-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), in which environmental variables operate synergistically, can provoke the reemergence and emergence of vector-borne diseases at new sites. This research investigated the influence of ENSO events on malaria incidence by determining the relationship between climate variations, expressed as warm, cold and neutral phases, and their relation to the number of malaria cases in some north-eastern municipalities of Venezuela (Estado Sucre) during the period 1990-2000. Significant differences in malaria incidence were found, particularly in the La Niña ENSO phases (cold) of moderate intensity. These findings should be taken into account for surveillance and control in the future as they shed light on important indicators that can lead to reduced vulnerability to malaria.

Global Warming in the Twenty-First Century: An Alternative Scenario

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Ruedy, Reto; Lacis, Andrew; Oinas, Valdar; Travis, Larry (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

A common view is that the current global warming rate will continue or accelerate. But we argue that rapid warming in recent decades has been driven mainly by non-CO2 greenhouse gases (GHGs), such as chlorofluorocarbons, CH4, and N2O, not by the products of fossil fuel burning, CO2 and aerosols, the positive and negative climate forcings of which are partially offsetting. The growth rate of non-CO2 GHGs has declined in the past decade. If sources of CH4 and O3 precursors were reduced in the future, the change in climate forcing by non-CO2 GHGs in the next 50 years could be near zero. Combined with a reduction of black carbon emissions and plausible success in slowing CO2 emissions, this reduction of non-CO2 GHGs could lead to a decline in the rate of global warming, reducing the danger of dramatic climate change. Such a focus on air pollution has practical benefits that unite the interests of developed and developing countries. However, assessment of ongoing and future climate change requires composition specific long-term global monitoring of aerosol properties.

Global warming in the twenty-first century: an alternative scenario.

PubMed

Hansen, J; Sato, M; Ruedy, R; Lacis, A; Oinas, V

2000-08-29

A common view is that the current global warming rate will continue or accelerate. But we argue that rapid warming in recent decades has been driven mainly by non-CO(2) greenhouse gases (GHGs), such as chlorofluorocarbons, CH(4), and N(2)O, not by the products of fossil fuel burning, CO(2) and aerosols, the positive and negative climate forcings of which are partially offsetting. The growth rate of non-CO(2) GHGs has declined in the past decade. If sources of CH(4) and O(3) precursors were reduced in the future, the change in climate forcing by non-CO(2) GHGs in the next 50 years could be near zero. Combined with a reduction of black carbon emissions and plausible success in slowing CO(2) emissions, this reduction of non-CO(2) GHGs could lead to a decline in the rate of global warming, reducing the danger of dramatic climate change. Such a focus on air pollution has practical benefits that unite the interests of developed and developing countries. However, assessment of ongoing and future climate change requires composition-specific long-term global monitoring of aerosol properties.

Global warming in the twenty-first century: An alternative scenario

PubMed Central

Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Ruedy, Reto; Lacis, Andrew; Oinas, Valdar

2000-01-01

A common view is that the current global warming rate will continue or accelerate. But we argue that rapid warming in recent decades has been driven mainly by non-CO2 greenhouse gases (GHGs), such as chlorofluorocarbons, CH4, and N2O, not by the products of fossil fuel burning, CO2 and aerosols, the positive and negative climate forcings of which are partially offsetting. The growth rate of non-CO2 GHGs has declined in the past decade. If sources of CH4 and O3 precursors were reduced in the future, the change in climate forcing by non-CO2 GHGs in the next 50 years could be near zero. Combined with a reduction of black carbon emissions and plausible success in slowing CO2 emissions, this reduction of non-CO2 GHGs could lead to a decline in the rate of global warming, reducing the danger of dramatic climate change. Such a focus on air pollution has practical benefits that unite the interests of developed and developing countries. However, assessment of ongoing and future climate change requires composition-specific long-term global monitoring of aerosol properties. PMID:10944197

Climate change, transgenic corn adoption and field-evolved resistance in corn earworm.

PubMed

Venugopal, P Dilip; Dively, Galen P

2017-06-01

Increased temperature anomaly during the twenty-first century coincides with the proliferation of transgenic crops containing the bacterium Bacillus thuringiensis (Berliner) (Bt) to express insecticidal Cry proteins. Increasing temperatures profoundly affect insect life histories and agricultural pest management. However, the implications of climate change on Bt crop-pest interactions and insect resistance to Bt crops remains unexamined. We analysed the relationship of temperature anomaly and Bt adoption with field-evolved resistance to Cry1Ab Bt sweet corn in a major pest, Helicoverpa zea (Boddie). Increased Bt adoption during 1996-2016 suppressed H. zea populations, but increased temperature anomaly buffers population reduction. Temperature anomaly and its interaction with elevated selection pressure from high Bt acreage probably accelerated the Bt-resistance development. Helicoverpa zea damage to corn ears, kernel area consumed, mean instars and proportion of late instars in Bt varieties increased with Bt adoption and temperature anomaly, through additive or interactive effects. Risk of Bt-resistant H. zea spreading is high given extensive Bt adoption, and the expected increase in overwintering and migration. Our study highlights the challenges posed by climate change for Bt biotechnology-based agricultural pest management, and the need to incorporate evolutionary processes affected by climate change into Bt-resistance management programmes.

Spatio-temporal variation of vegetation coverage and its response to climate change in North China plain in the last 33 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

A, Duo; Zhao, Wenji; Qu, Xinyuan; Jing, Ran; Xiong, Kai

2016-12-01

Global climate change has led to significant vegetation changes in the past half century. North China Plain, the most important grain production base of china, is undergoing a process of prominent warming and drying. The vegetation coverage, which is used to monitor vegetation change, can respond to climate change (temperature and precipitation). In this study, GIMMS (Global Inventory Modelling and Mapping Studies)-NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) data, MODIS (Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) - NDVI data and climate data, during 1981-2013, were used to investigate the spatial distribution and changes of vegetation. The relationship between climate and vegetation on different spatial (agriculture, forest and grassland) and temporal (yearly, decadal and monthly) scales were also analyzed in North China Plain. (1) It was found that temperature exhibiting a slight increase trend (0.20 °C/10a, P < 0.01). This may be due to the disappearance of 0 °C isotherm, the rise of spring temperature. At the same time, precipitation showed a significant reduction trend (-1.75 mm/10a, P > 0.05). The climate mutation period was during 1991-1994. (2) Vegetation coverage slight increase was observed in the 55% of total study area, with a change rate of 0.00039/10a. Human activities may not only accelerate the changes of the vegetation coverage, but also c effect to the rate of these changes. (3) Overall, the correlation between the vegetation coverage and climatic factor is higher in monthly scale than yearly scale. The correlation analysis between vegetation coverage and climate changes showed that annual vegetation coverage was better correlatend with precipitation in grassland biome; but it showed a better correlated with temperature i the agriculture biome and forest biome. In addition, the vegetation coverage had sensitive time-effect respond to precipitation. (4) The vegetation coverage showed the same increasing trend before and after the climatic variations, but the rate of increase slowed down. From the vegetation coverage point of view, the grassland ecological zone had an obvious response to the climatic variations, but the agricultural ecological zones showed a significant response from the vegetation coverage change rate point of view. The effect of human activity in degradation region was higher than that in improvement area. But after the climate abruptly changing, the effect of human activity in improvement area was higher than that in degradation region, and the influence of human activity will continue in the future.

The toxicology of climate change: environmental contaminants in a warming world.

PubMed

Noyes, Pamela D; McElwee, Matthew K; Miller, Hilary D; Clark, Bryan W; Van Tiem, Lindsey A; Walcott, Kia C; Erwin, Kyle N; Levin, Edward D

2009-08-01

Climate change induced by anthropogenic warming of the earth's atmosphere is a daunting problem. This review examines one of the consequences of climate change that has only recently attracted attention: namely, the effects of climate change on the environmental distribution and toxicity of chemical pollutants. A review was undertaken of the scientific literature (original research articles, reviews, government and intergovernmental reports) focusing on the interactions of toxicants with the environmental parameters, temperature, precipitation, and salinity, as altered by climate change. Three broad classes of chemical toxicants of global significance were the focus: air pollutants, persistent organic pollutants (POPs), including some organochlorine pesticides, and other classes of pesticides. Generally, increases in temperature will enhance the toxicity of contaminants and increase concentrations of tropospheric ozone regionally, but will also likely increase rates of chemical degradation. While further research is needed, climate change coupled with air pollutant exposures may have potentially serious adverse consequences for human health in urban and polluted regions. Climate change producing alterations in: food webs, lipid dynamics, ice and snow melt, and organic carbon cycling could result in increased POP levels in water, soil, and biota. There is also compelling evidence that increasing temperatures could be deleterious to pollutant-exposed wildlife. For example, elevated water temperatures may alter the biotransformation of contaminants to more bioactive metabolites and impair homeostasis. The complex interactions between climate change and pollutants may be particularly problematic for species living at the edge of their physiological tolerance range where acclimation capacity may be limited. In addition to temperature increases, regional precipitation patterns are projected to be altered with climate change. Regions subject to decreases in precipitation may experience enhanced volatilization of POPs and pesticides to the atmosphere. Reduced precipitation will also increase air pollution in urbanized regions resulting in negative health effects, which may be exacerbated by temperature increases. Regions subject to increased precipitation will have lower levels of air pollution, but will likely experience enhanced surface deposition of airborne POPs and increased run-off of pesticides. Moreover, increases in the intensity and frequency of storm events linked to climate change could lead to more severe episodes of chemical contamination of water bodies and surrounding watersheds. Changes in salinity may affect aquatic organisms as an independent stressor as well as by altering the bioavailability and in some instances increasing the toxicity of chemicals. A paramount issue will be to identify species and populations especially vulnerable to climate-pollutant interactions, in the context of the many other physical, chemical, and biological stressors that will be altered with climate change. Moreover, it will be important to predict tipping points that might trigger or accelerate synergistic interactions between climate change and contaminant exposures.

Synthesis of an optoelectronic system for tracking (OEST) the information track of the optical record carrier based on the acceleration control principle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zalogin, Stanislav M.; Zalogin, M. S.

1997-02-01

The problem for construction of control algorithm in OEST the information track of the optical record carrier the realization of which is based on the use of accelerations is considered. Such control algorithms render the designed system the properties of adaptability, feeble sensitivity to the system parameter change and the action of disturbing forces what gives known advantages to information carriers with such system under operation in hard climate conditions as well as at maladjustment, workpieces wear and change of friction in the system. In the paper are investigated dynamic characteristics of a closed OEST, it is shown, that the designed stable system with given quality indices is a high-precision one. The validated recommendations as to design of control algorithms parameters are confirmed by results of mathematical simulation of controlled processes. The proposed methods for OEST synthesis on the basis of the control acceleration principle can be recommended for the use at industrial production of optical information record carriers.

Detection time for global and regional sea level trends and accelerations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jordà, G.

2014-10-01

Many studies analyze trends on sea level data with the underlying purpose of finding indications of a long-term change that could be interpreted as the signature of anthropogenic climate change. The identification of a long-term trend is a signal-to-noise problem where the natural variability (the "noise") can mask the long-term trend (the "signal"). The signal-to-noise ratio depends on the magnitude of the long-term trend, on the magnitude of the natural variability, and on the length of the record, as the climate noise is larger when averaged over short time scales and becomes smaller over longer averaging periods. In this paper, we evaluate the time required to detect centennial sea level linear trends and accelerations at global and regional scales. Using model results and tide gauge observations, we find that the averaged detection time for a centennial linear trend is 87.9, 76.0, 59.3, 40.3, and 25.2 years for trends of 0.5, 1.0, 2.0, 5.0, and 10.0 mm/yr, respectively. However, in regions with large decadal variations like the Gulf Stream or the Circumpolar current, these values can increase up to a 50%. The spatial pattern of the detection time for sea level accelerations is almost identical. The main difference is that the length of the records has to be about 40-60 years longer to detect an acceleration than to detect a linear trend leading to an equivalent change after 100 years. Finally, we have used a new sea level reconstruction, which provides a more accurate representation of interannual variability for the last century in order to estimate the detection time for global mean sea level trends and accelerations. Our results suggest that the signature of natural variability in a 30 year global mean sea level record would be less than 1 mm/yr. Therefore, at least 2.2 mm/yr of the recent sea level trend estimated by altimetry cannot be attributed to natural multidecadal variability. This article was corrected on 19 NOV 2014. See the end of the full text for details.

Seasonal greening of an Arctic ecosystem in response to early snowmelt and climate warming: do plant community responses differ from species responses?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steltzer, H.; Weintraub, M. N.; Sullivan, P.; Wallenstein, M. D.; Schimel, J.; Darrouzet-Nardi, A.; Shory, R.; Livensperger, C.; Melle, C.; Segal, A. D.; Daly, K.; Tsosie, T.

2011-12-01

In the Arctic and around the world, earlier plant growth and a longer growing season are indications that warmer temperatures or other global changes are changing the seasonality of the Earth's ecosystems. These changes in plant life histories have multi-trophic level consequences that affect food webs and biogeochemical cycles. Both the response of the plant community and of individual species can affect food and habitat resources for animals or nutrient resources for microbes. Our aim was to determine if the response of an Arctic plant community differs from individual species responses to climate change. For two years in an early snowmelt and climate warming experiment in moist acidic tussock tundra, we observed the seasonal greening of the ecosystem through near-surface measurements of surface greenness and through direct observations of the timing of plant life history events for five to eight common species that differ in growth form. In 2010 when snowmelt was accelerated by 4 days, earlier snowmelt alone or in combination with climate warming extended the life history of the dominant graminoids (E. vaginatum and C. bigelowii) and willow (S. pulchra) by 3 to 4 days. For these species, new leaf production began earlier, while the timing of senescence was similar to the controls. The effect of earlier snowmelt on the life histories of birch (B. nana) and cranberry (V. vitis-idaea) was less, but warming alone tended to increase life history duration. Warming led to earlier leaf expansion for birch and delayed senescence for cranberry. We found that the onset of greening for the plant community began four days earlier, due to the earlier loss of snow cover, and that warming accelerated the rate of greening. Peak season ended 4 days earlier in response to earlier snowmelt and climate warming, due to earlier senescence by birch. In 2011, our manipulation of the snowpack by increasing energy absorption accelerated snowmelt by 15 days and control plots were snowfree on almost the same date as in 2010. As a result greening began earlier and may have led to more varied effects on life history events among the species. In the Arctic, individual species and the plant community green up as soon as the snow is gone, creating food resources and hiding places for animals and a nutrient sink for available nitrogen. If warming temperatures also cue earlier animal development or arrival, resources should be available for most species. However, an early onset to growth can lead to early senescence for some plant species and shift the timing of peak season for the plant community. Animals that depend on late season resources may be affected, unless they can utilize the plant species for which senescence is delayed.

High Artic Glaciers and Ice Caps Ice Mass Change from GRACE, Regional Climate Model Output and Altimetry.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciraci, E.; Velicogna, I.; Fettweis, X.; van den Broeke, M. R.

2016-12-01

The Arctic hosts more than the 75% of the ice covered regions outside from Greenland and Antarctica. Available observations show that increased atmospheric temperatures during the last century have contributed to a substantial glaciers retreat in all these regions. We use satellite gravimetry by the NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), and apply a least square fit mascon approach to calculate time series of ice mass change for the period 2002-2016. Our estimates show that arctic glaciers have constantly contributed to the sea level rise during the entire observation period with a mass change of -170+/-20 Gt/yr equivalent to the 80% of the total ice mass change from the world Glacier and Ice Caps (GIC) excluding the Ice sheet peripheral GIC, which we calculated to be -215+/-32 GT/yr, with an acceleration of 9+/-4 Gt/yr2. The Canadian Archipelago is the main contributor to the total mass depletion with an ice mass trend of -73+/-9 Gt/yr and a significant acceleration of -7+/-3 Gt/yr2. The increasing mass loss is mainly determined by melting glaciers located in the northern part of the archipelago.In order to investigate the physical processes driving the observed ice mass loss we employ satellite altimetry and surface mass balance (SMB) estimates from Regional climate model outputs available for the same time period covered by the gravimetry data. We use elevation data from the NASA ICESat (2003-2009) and ESA CryoSat-2 (2010-2016) missions to estimate ice elevation changes. We compare GRACE ice mass estimates with time series of surface mass balance from the Regional Climate Model (RACMO-2) and the Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR) and determine the portion of the total mass change explained by the SMB signal. We find that in Iceland and in the and the Canadian Archipelago the SMB signal explains most of the observed mass changes, suggesting that ice discharge may play a secondary role here. In other region, e.g. in Svalbar, the SMB signal explain only a portion of the observed mass loss, here elevation changes from altimetry observations suggest the presence of ice dynamic contribution.

Future changes in precipitation patterns and extremes: a model-based approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitsakis, Evangelos; Stamos, Iraklis; Anastassiadou, Kalliopi; Kammerer, Harald; Kaundinya, Ingo; Kohl, Bernhard; Kapsomenakis, John; Zerefos, Christos; Aifadopoulou, Georfia

2016-04-01

In recent decades, the Earth has experienced abrupt climate changes, including changes of mean precipitation heights as well as precipitation extremes. It is very likely that the abrupt climate changes which are result of the increase of the greenhouse gases (GHG) concentration (IPCC 2007) will continue with an accelerate magnitude in the coming decades. The modern tool used to project the future climate change is General Circulation Models (GCMs). Due to computational resources limitations, the horizontal resolution of present day GCMs is quite low, usually in the order of hundreds of kilometers. In such a crude resolution many local aspects of the climate are unable to be represented. In addition, the topographical input is equally crude, thus excluding important local features of the topographic forcing. For these reasons downscaling methods have been developed, which input the GCM results producing high resolution localized climate information. Dynamical downscaling is achieved using Regional Climate Models (RCMs) that increase the resolution of the GCMs to even less than 10 km. In that direction, future changes in the mean precipitation as well as precipitation extremes due to the anthropogenic climate change over the area of Greece are examined for various emission scenarios in the framework of this paper (e.g. RCP 8.5, SRES A1B, etc.). Regarding Greece, future changes are based on daily precipitation data from 18 Region Climate Models simulations (6 for RCP 8.5 and 12 for SRES A1B). The changes in precipitation extremes are defined by calculating the changes of nine extreme precipitation indices which are divided in three categories: percentile (R75p, R95p, R99p), absolute threshold (Rmax, R10, R20, R50, RX5day) and duration (CDD) indices, as defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). Taking into account all the results that are discussed explicitly in the following sections we conclude that the mean precipitation as well as the number of moderate rainy days is projected to decrease over Greece especially in the end of 21th century. Nevertheless the frequency as well as the strength of individual extremely high precipitation events will be increased over the largest part of Greece.

The Integration of Climate Science and Collaborative Processes in Building Regional Climate Resiliency in Southeast Florida

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jurado, J.

2016-12-01

Southeast Florida is widely recognized as one of the most vulnerable regions in the United States to the impacts of climate change, especially sea level rise. Dense urban populations, low land elevations, flat topography, complex shorelines and a porous geology all contribute to the region's challenges. Regional and local governments have been working collaboratively to address shared climate mitigation and adaptation concerns as part of the four-county Southeast Florida Regional Climate Change Compact (Compact). This partnership has emphasized, in part, the use of climate data and the development of advanced technical tools and visualizations to help inform decision-making, improve communications, and guide investments. Prominent work products have included regional vulnerability maps and assessments, a unified sea level rise projection for southeast Florida, the development and application of hydrologic models in scenario planning, interdisciplinary resilient redesign planning workshops, and the development of regional climate indicators. Key to the Compact's efforts has been the engagement and expertise of academic and agency partners, including a formal collaboration between the Florida Climate Institute and the Compact to improve research and project collaborations focused on southeast Florida. This presentation will focus on the collaborative processes and work products that have served to accelerate resiliency planning and investments in southeast Florida, with specific examples of how local governments are using these work products to modernize agency processes, and build support among residents and business leaders.

'Not to escape the world but to join it': responding to climate change with imagination not fantasy.

PubMed

Davison, Andrew

2017-06-13

The work of climate scientists, demonstrating human-driven climate change, has not provoked the widespread and far-reaching changes to human behaviour necessary to avert potentially catastrophic environmental trajectories. This work has not yet sufficiently been able to engage the individual and collective imagination. Drawing on Samuel Taylor Coleridge (1772-1834) and Iris Murdoch (1919-1999), we can distinguish two modes under which the human imagination can operate: in Murdoch's terms, these are 'imagination' and 'fantasy'. To relate imaginatively is to be willing to allow one's internal image of the world to be changed by what one encounters, while an outlook characterized by fantasy relates to the world as one would wish it were, rather than how it actually is. Fantasy, therefore, operates not only among those who deny climate change, but also among those who entertain the promise of a technological solution too optimistically. An imaginative outlook, by contrast, evaluates actions and patterns of behaviour in terms of their relation to a wider whole. This is necessary for providing the degree of agency required to step out of a cycle of ever accelerating production, which is explored in terms of an analogy to a discussion of revenge and forgiveness from Hannah Arendt (1906-1975). Ultimately, the need to engage the imagination is an opportunity as well as a challenge. To live imaginatively is fulfilling, and that is precisely what the challenges of climate change require.This article is part of the themed issue 'Material demand reduction'. © 2017 The Author(s).

`Not to escape the world but to join it': responding to climate change with imagination not fantasy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davison, Andrew

2017-05-01

The work of climate scientists, demonstrating human-driven climate change, has not provoked the widespread and far-reaching changes to human behaviour necessary to avert potentially catastrophic environmental trajectories. This work has not yet sufficiently been able to engage the individual and collective imagination. Drawing on Samuel Taylor Coleridge (1772-1834) and Iris Murdoch (1919-1999), we can distinguish two modes under which the human imagination can operate: in Murdoch's terms, these are `imagination' and `fantasy'. To relate imaginatively is to be willing to allow one's internal image of the world to be changed by what one encounters, while an outlook characterized by fantasy relates to the world as one would wish it were, rather than how it actually is. Fantasy, therefore, operates not only among those who deny climate change, but also among those who entertain the promise of a technological solution too optimistically. An imaginative outlook, by contrast, evaluates actions and patterns of behaviour in terms of their relation to a wider whole. This is necessary for providing the degree of agency required to step out of a cycle of ever accelerating production, which is explored in terms of an analogy to a discussion of revenge and forgiveness from Hannah Arendt (1906-1975). Ultimately, the need to engage the imagination is an opportunity as well as a challenge. To live imaginatively is fulfilling, and that is precisely what the challenges of climate change require. This article is part of the themed issue 'Material demand reduction'.

Mapping topographic plant location properties using a dense matching approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niederheiser, Robert; Rutzinger, Martin; Lamprecht, Andrea; Bardy-Durchhalter, Manfred; Pauli, Harald; Winkler, Manuela

2017-04-01

Within the project MEDIALPS (Disentangling anthropogenic drivers of climate change impacts on alpine plant species: Alps vs. Mediterranean mountains) six regions in Alpine and in Mediterranean mountain regions are investigated to assess how plant species respond to climate change. The project is embedded in the Global Observation Research Initiative in Alpine Environments (GLORIA), which is a well-established global monitoring initiative for systematic observation of changes in the plant species composition and soil temperature on mountain summits worldwide to discern accelerating climate change pressures on these fragile alpine ecosystems. Close-range sensing techniques such as terrestrial photogrammetry are well suited for mapping terrain topography of small areas with high resolution. Lightweight equipment, flexible positioning for image acquisition in the field, and independence on weather conditions (i.e. wind) make this a feasible method for in-situ data collection. New developments of dense matching approaches allow high quality 3D terrain mapping with less requirements for field set-up. However, challenges occur in post-processing and required data storage if many sites have to be mapped. Within MEDIALPS dense matching is used for mapping high resolution topography for 284 3x3 meter plots deriving information on vegetation coverage, roughness, slope, aspect and modelled solar radiation. This information helps identifying types of topography-dependent ecological growing conditions and evaluating the potential for existing refugial locations for specific plant species under climate change. This research is conducted within the project MEDIALPS - Disentangling anthropogenic drivers of climate change impacts on alpine plant species: Alps vs. Mediterranean mountains funded by the Earth System Sciences Programme of the Austrian Academy of Sciences.

Climate change accelerates local disease extinction rates in a long-term wild host-pathogen association.

PubMed

Zhan, Jiasui; Ericson, Lars; Burdon, Jeremy J

2018-02-27

Pathogens are a significant component of all plant communities. In recent years, the potential for existing and emerging pathogens of agricultural crops to cause increased yield losses as a consequence of changing climatic patterns has raised considerable concern. In contrast, the response of naturally occurring, endemic pathogens to a warming climate has received little attention. Here, we report on the impact of a signature variable of global climate change - increasing temperature - on the long-term epidemiology of a natural host-pathogen association involving the rust pathogen Triphragmium ulmariae and its host plant Filipendula ulmaria. In a host-pathogen metapopulation involving approximately 230 host populations growing on an archipelago of islands in the Gulf of Bothnia we assessed changes in host population size and pathogen epidemiological measures over a 25-year period. We show how the incidence of disease and its severity declines over that period and most importantly demonstrate a positive association between a long-term trend of increasing extinction rates in individual pathogen populations of the metapopulation and increasing temperature. Our results are highly suggestive that changing climatic patterns, particularly mean monthly growing season (April-November) temperature, are markedly influencing the epidemiology of plant disease in this host-pathogen association. Given the important role plant pathogens have in shaping the structure of communities, changes in the epidemiology of pathogens have potentially far-reaching impacts on ecological and evolutionary processes. For these reasons, it is essential to increase understanding of pathogen epidemiology, its response to warming, and to invoke these responses in forecasts for the future. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Amazonian forest dieback under climate-carbon cycle projections for the 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cox, P. M.; Betts, R. A.; Collins, M.; Harris, P. P.; Huntingford, C.; Jones, C. D.

The first GCM climate change projections to include dynamic vegetation and an interactive carbon cycle produced a very significant amplification of global warming over the 21st century. Under the IS92a ``business as usual'' emissions scenario CO2 concentrations reached about 980ppmv by 2100, which is about 280ppmv higher than when these feedbacks were ignored. The major contribution to the increased CO2 arose from reductions in soil carbon because global warming is assumed to accelerate respiration. However, there was also a lesser contribution from an alarming loss of the Amazonian rainforest. This paper describes the phenomenon of Amazonian forest dieback under elevated CO2 in the Hadley Centre climate-carbon cycle model.

Reevaluating geographic variation in life-history traits of a widespread Nearctic amphibian

USGS Publications Warehouse

Davenport, Jon M.; Hossack, Blake R.

2016-01-01

Animals from cold environments are usually larger than animals from warm environments, which often produce clines in body size. Because variation in body size can lead to trade-offs between growth and reproduction, life-history traits should also vary across climatic gradients. To determine if life-history traits of wood frogs Rana sylvatica vary with climate, we examined female and male body length, clutch size, and ovum size from 37 locations across an unprecedented 32° of latitude. In conflict with recent research, body size, and ovum size decreased in cold climates and at higher latitudes. Clutch size did not vary with climate or latitude, but reproductive effort (clutch size:female size) did, suggesting selection for a life-history traits that favors maximizing propagule number over propagule size in cold climates. With accelerating climate change that will expose populations to novel environmental conditions, it is important to identify the limits of adaptation, which can be informed by greater understanding of variation in life-history traits.

Impact of wildfire on stream nutrient chemistry and ecosystem metabolism in boreal forest catchments of interior Alaska

Treesearch

Emma F. Betts; Jeremy B. Jones

2009-01-01

With climatic warming, wildfire occurrence is increasing in the boreal forest of interior Alaska. Loss of catchment vegetation during fire can impact streams directly through altered solute and debris inputs and changed light and temperature regimes. Over longer time scales, fire can accelerate permafrost degradation, altering catchment hydrology and stream nutrient...

Assessing impacts of climate change on species range shifts and extirpation on the local scale through Late Pleistocene fossils of Sequoia sempervirens in the Los Angeles Basin.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

George, J.; MacDonald, G. M.

2017-12-01

As the effects of climate change become more apparent, increased importance must be placed on species' response to changing environments for ecosystem management and threat mitigation. While many studies have focused on the response of ecosystem types, few venture to the species level, as true limiting factors of species can be difficult to discern. Paleoproxies provide a valuable resource for predicting responses to future change through observation of similar responses in the past. This study uses plant paleorecords of Sequoia sempervirens to more closely examine the relationship of local climate change and species response in the Los Angeles Basin during the Late Pleistocene. The modern distribution of S. sempervirens has a southern extent, today, reaching the south end of Monterey County, California. Fossilized material from the La Brea Tar Pits extends that range to the farthest known point south, 200 miles from the southernmost modern stands, and has previously not been dated. A coupled analysis of 8 S. sempervirens specimens preserved in asphalt using Accelerator Mass Spectrometry (AMS) dates paired with δC13 values will help to illuminate patterns of changing climate on a local scale, as well as provide valuable data on primary environmental factors in plant community change. Understanding the intricacies of species' range shifts and factors behind local extirpation on a local scale is necessary to interpret species response in the past as well as predicting response in the future.

Effects of Global Change on U.S. Urban Areas: Vulnerabilities, Impacts, and Adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quattrochi, D. A.; Wilbanks, T. J.; Kirshen, P. H.; Romero-Lankao, P.; Rosenzweig, C. E.; Ruth, M.; Solecki, W.; Tarr, J. A.

2007-05-01

Human settlements, both large and small, are where the vast majority of people on the Earth live. Expansion of cities both in population and areal extent, is a relentless process that will accelerate in the 21st century. As a consequence of urban growth both in the United States and around the globe, it is important to develop an understanding of how urbanization will affect the local and regional environment. Of equal importance, however, is the assessment of how cities will be impacted by the looming prospects of global climate change and climate variability. The potential impacts of climate change and variability has recently been enunciated by the IPCC's "Climate Change 2007" report. Moreover, the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) is preparing a series of "Synthesis and Assessment Products" (SAP) reports to support informed discussion and decision making regarding climate change and variability by policy makers, resource managers, stakeholders, the media, and the general public. We are working on a chapter of SAP 4.6 ("Analysis of the Effects of Global Chance on Human Health and Welfare and Human Systems") wherein we wish to describe the effects of global climate change on human settlements. This paper will present the thoughts and ideas that are being formulated for our SAP report that relate to what vulnerabilities and impacts will occur, what adaptation responses may take place, and what possible effects on settlement patterns and characteristics will potentially arise, on human settlements in the U.S. as a result of climate change and climate variability. We wish to present these ideas and concepts as a "work in progress" that are subject to several rounds of review, and we invite comments from listeners at this session on the rationale and veracity of our thoughts. Additionally, we wish to explore how technology such as remote sensing data coupled with modeling, can be employed as synthesis tools for deriving insight across a spectrum of impacts (e.g. public health, urban planning for mitigation strategies) on how cities can cope and adapt to climate change and variability. This latter point parallels the concepts and ideas presented in the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, Decadal Survey report on "Earth Science Applications from Space: National Imperatives for the Next Decade and Beyond" wherein the analysis of the impacts of climate change and variability, human health, and land use change are listed as key areas for development of future Earth observing remote sensing systems.

Assessing the Global Climate Response to Freshwater Forcing from the Antarctic Ice Sheet Under Future Climate Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rogstad, S.; Condron, A.; DeConto, R.; Pollard, D.

2017-12-01

Observational evidence indicates that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is losing mass at an accelerating rate. Impacts to global climate resulting from changing ocean circulation patterns due to increased freshwater runoff from Antarctica in the future could have significant implications for global heat transport, but to-date this topic has not been investigated using complex numerical models with realistic freshwater forcing. Here, we present results from a high resolution fully coupled ocean-atmosphere model (CESM 1.2) forced with runoff from Antarctica prescribed from a high resolution regional ice sheet-ice shelf model. Results from the regional simulations indicate a potential freshwater contribution from Antarctica of up to 1 m equivalent sea level rise by the end of the century under RCP 8.5 indicating that a substantial input of freshwater into the Southern Ocean is possible. Our high resolution global simulations were performed under IPCC future climate scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5. We will present results showing the impact of WAIS collapse on global ocean circulation, sea ice, air temperature, and salinity in order to assess the potential for abrupt climate change triggered by WAIS collapse.

Repeated climate-linked host shifts have promoted diversification in a temperate clade of leaf-mining flies

PubMed Central

Winkler, Isaac S.; Mitter, Charles; Scheffer, Sonja J.

2009-01-01

A central but little-tested prediction of “escape and radiation” coevolution is that colonization of novel, chemically defended host plant clades accelerates insect herbivore diversification. That theory, in turn, exemplifies one side of a broader debate about the relative influence on clade dynamics of intrinsic (biotic) vs. extrinsic (physical-environmental) forces. Here, we use a fossil-calibrated molecular chronogram to compare the effects of a major biotic factor (repeated shift to a chemically divergent host plant clade) and a major abiotic factor (global climate change) on the macroevolutionary dynamics of a large Cenozoic radiation of phytophagous insects, the leaf-mining fly genus Phytomyza (Diptera: Agromyzidae). We find one of the first statistically supported examples of consistently elevated net diversification accompanying shift to new plant clades. In contrast, we detect no significant direct effect on diversification of major global climate events in the early and late Oligocene. The broader paleoclimatic context strongly suggests, however, that climate change has at times had a strong indirect influence through its effect on the biotic environment. Repeated rapid Miocene radiation of these flies on temperate herbaceous asterids closely corresponds to the dramatic, climate-driven expansion of seasonal, open habitats. PMID:19805134

Modeling long-term changes in tundra carbon balance following wildfire, climate change, and potential nutrient addition.

PubMed

Jiang, Yueyang; Rastetter, Edward B; Shaver, Gaius R; Rocha, Adrian V; Zhuang, Qianlai; Kwiatkowski, Bonnie L

2017-01-01

To investigate the underlying mechanisms that control long-term recovery of tundra carbon (C) and nutrients after fire, we employed the Multiple Element Limitation (MEL) model to simulate 200-yr post-fire changes in the biogeochemistry of three sites along a burn severity gradient in response to increases in air temperature, CO 2 concentration, nitrogen (N) deposition, and phosphorus (P) weathering rates. The simulations were conducted for severely burned, moderately burned, and unburned arctic tundra. Our simulations indicated that recovery of C balance after fire was mainly determined by the internal redistribution of nutrients among ecosystem components (controlled by air temperature), rather than the supply of nutrients from external sources (e.g., nitrogen deposition and fixation, phosphorus weathering). Increases in air temperature and atmospheric CO 2 concentration resulted in (1) a net transfer of nutrient from soil organic matter to vegetation and (2) higher C : nutrient ratios in vegetation and soil organic matter. These changes led to gains in vegetation biomass C but net losses in soil organic C stocks. Under a warming climate, nutrients lost in wildfire were difficult to recover because the warming-induced acceleration in nutrient cycles caused further net nutrient loss from the system through leaching. In both burned and unburned tundra, the warming-caused acceleration in nutrient cycles and increases in ecosystem C stocks were eventually constrained by increases in soil C : nutrient ratios, which increased microbial retention of plant-available nutrients in the soil. Accelerated nutrient turnover, loss of C, and increasing soil temperatures will likely result in vegetation changes, which further regulate the long-term biogeochemical succession. Our analysis should help in the assessment of tundra C budgets and of the recovery of biogeochemical function following fire, which is in turn necessary for the maintenance of wildlife habitat and tundra vegetation. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Recent Changes in Arctic Glaciers, Ice Caps, and the Greenland Ice Sheet: Cold Facts About Warm Ice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdalati, W.

2005-12-01

One of the major manifestations of Arctic change can be observed in the state of balance of Arctic glaciers and ice caps and the Greenland ice sheet. These ice masses are estimated to contain nearly 3 million cubic kilometers of ice, which is more than six times greater than all the water stored in the Earth's lakes, rivers, and snow combined and is the equivalent of over 7 meters of sea level. Most of these ice masses have been shrinking in recent in years, but their mass balance is highly variable on a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. On the Greenland ice sheet most of the coastal regions have thinned substantially as melt has increased and some of its outlet glaciers have accelerated. Near the equilibrium line in West Greenland, we have seen evidence of summer acceleration that is linked to surface meltwater production, suggesting a relatively rapid response mechanism of the ice sheet change to a warming climate. At the same time, however, the vast interior regions of the Greenland ice sheet have shown little change or slight growth, as accumulation in these areas may have increased. Throughout much of the rest of the Arctic, many glaciers and ice caps have been shrinking in the past few decades, and in Canada and Alaska, the rate of ice loss seems to have accelerated during the late 1990s. These recent observations offer only a snapshot in time of the long-term behavior, but they are providing crucial information about the current state of ice mass balance and the mechanisms that control it in one of the most climatically sensitive regions on Earth. As we continue to learn more through a combination of remote sensing observations, in situ measurements and improved modeling capabilities, it is important that we coordinate and integrate these approaches effectively in order to predict future changes and their impact on sea level, freshwater discharge, and ocean circulation.

Tradeoffs in Acceleration and Initialization of Superparameterized Global Atmospheric Models for MJO and Climate Science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pritchard, M. S.; Bretherton, C. S.; DeMott, C. A.

2014-12-01

New trade-offs are discussed in the cloud superparameterization approach to explicitly representing deep convection in global climate models. Intrinsic predictability tests show that the memory of cloud-resolving-scale organization is not critical for producing desired modes of organized convection such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). This has implications for the feasibility of data assimilation and real-world initialization for superparameterized weather forecasting. Climate simulation sensitivity tests demonstrate that 400% acceleration of cloud superparameterization is possible by restricting the 32-128 km scale regime without deteriorating the realism of the simulated MJO but the number of cloud resolving model grid columns is discovered to constrain the efficiency of vertical mixing, with consequences for the simulated liquid cloud climatology. Tuning opportunities for next generation accelerated superparameterized climate models are discussed.

Climate Change in the North American Arctic: A One Health Perspective.

PubMed

Dudley, Joseph P; Hoberg, Eric P; Jenkins, Emily J; Parkinson, Alan J

2015-12-01

Climate change is expected to increase the prevalence of acute and chronic diseases among human and animal populations within the Arctic and subarctic latitudes of North America. Warmer temperatures are expected to increase disease risks from food-borne pathogens, water-borne diseases, and vector-borne zoonoses in human and animal populations of Arctic landscapes. Existing high levels of mercury and persistent organic pollutant chemicals circulating within terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems in Arctic latitudes are a major concern for the reproductive health of humans and other mammals, and climate warming will accelerate the mobilization and biological amplification of toxic environmental contaminants. The adverse health impacts of Arctic warming will be especially important for wildlife populations and indigenous peoples dependent upon subsistence food resources from wild plants and animals. Additional research is needed to identify and monitor changes in the prevalence of zoonotic pathogens in humans, domestic dogs, and wildlife species of critical subsistence, cultural, and economic importance to Arctic peoples. The long-term effects of climate warming in the Arctic cannot be adequately predicted or mitigated without a comprehensive understanding of the interactive and synergistic effects between environmental contaminants and pathogens in the health of wildlife and human communities in Arctic ecosystems. The complexity and magnitude of the documented impacts of climate change on Arctic ecosystems, and the intimacy of connections between their human and wildlife communities, makes this region an appropriate area for development of One Health approaches to identify and mitigate the effects of climate warming at the community, ecosystem, and landscape scales.

On the reduced lifetime of nitrous oxide due to climate change induced acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson circulation as simulated by the MPI Earth System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kracher, D.; Manzini, E.; Reick, C. H.; Schultz, M. G.; Stein, O.

2014-12-01

Greenhouse gas induced climate change will modify the physical conditions of the atmosphere. One of the projected changes is an acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson circulation in the stratosphere, as it has been shown in many model studies. This change in the stratospheric circulation consequently bears an effect on the transport and distribution of atmospheric components such as N2O. Since N2O is involved in ozone destruction, a modified distribution of N2O can be of importance for ozone chemistry. N2O is inert in the troposphere and decays only in the stratosphere. Thus, changes in the exchange between troposphere and stratosphere can also affect the stratospheric sink of N2O, and consequently its atmospheric lifetime. N2O is a potent greenhouse gas with a global warming potential of currently approximately 300 CO2-equivalents in a 100-year perspective. A faster decay in atmospheric N2O mixing ratios, i.e. a decreased atmospheric lifetime of N2O, will also reduce its global warming potential. In order to assess the impact of climate change on atmospheric circulation and implied effects on the distribution and lifetime of atmospheric N2O, we apply the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model, MPI-ESM. MPI-ESM consists of the atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM, the land surface model JSBACH, and MPIOM/HAMOCC representing ocean circulation and ocean biogeochemistry. Prognostic atmospheric N2O concentrations in MPI-ESM are determined by land N2O emissions, ocean-atmosphere N2O exchange and atmospheric tracer transport. As stratospheric chemistry is not explicitly represented in MPI-ESM, stratospheric decay rates of N2O are prescribed from a MACC MOZART simulation. Increasing surface temperatures and CO2 concentrations in the stratosphere impact atmospheric circulation differently. Thus, we conduct a series of transient runs with the atmospheric model of MPI-ESM to isolate different factors governing a shift in atmospheric circulation. From those transient simulations we diagnose decreasing tropospheric N2O concentrations, increased transport of N2O from the troposphere to the stratosphere, and increasing stratospheric decay of N2O leading to a reduction in atmospheric lifetime of N2O, in dependency to climate change evolution.

[Air contamination in the Autonomous City of Buenos Aires: the current risk or future climate change, a false option].

PubMed

Abrutzky, Rosana; Dawidowski, Laura; Murgida, Ana; Natenzon, Claudia Eleonor

2014-09-01

Based on the theoretical framework of environmental risk, this article discusses the management of air quality in the Autonomous City of Buenos Aires in relation to current and potential impacts of toxic gases and global climate change on the health of the population. Information on historical and current management of the air was linked to the results of the South American Emissions, Megacities and Climate research project to assess danger, exposure, vulnerability and uncertainty as the dimensions of risk. By contextualizing public policies developed in recent decades on this subject, it was possible to identify emerging configurations of risk and uncertainties as accelerators of social vulnerability. On the one hand, the fact that there is a positive correlation between mortality, changes in temperature and air pollution was confirmed. On the other hand, it became clear that there is a disconnect between air quality management and health care management, while limitations were found in the proposed mitigation measures relating to emissions of greenhouse gases produced by fuel, revealing uncertainties regarding their efficacy.

Global Warming and Energy Transition: A Public Policy Imperative

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stone, G. T.

2006-12-01

The historic transition from fossil fuels to alternative energy resources has begun. This development is commonly attributed to increasing energy costs and the need for energy security. Looming ever larger, however, is the issue that will soon drive the third energy revolution: global warming. A preponderance of evidence documents accelerating warming, enlarging impacts, and human causes -- principally combustion of fossil fuels. The carbon dioxide (C02) content of Earth's atmosphere has increased more than 35 percent since the beginning of the industrial revolution and is the highest in 650,000 years. This dramatic rise of C02 and attendant positive feedbacks are already forcing significant impacts worldwide. These include atmospheric warming with shifting climatic and habitat zones, spreading tropical disease, and more extreme weather events; rapid ice loss at high latitude and high altitude; ocean warming and acidification with coral reef bleaching and intensifying tropical storms; rising sea level; and accelerating extinction rates. The 2007 draft report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts greater warming than in previous models. A tipping point to abrupt climate change may be imminent. It is incumbent upon geoscientists and geoscience educators to assume leadership in addressing this challenge through public outreach and general education. The following topics should be integrated into all appropriate courses: the evidence of global warming and its causes; observed present and predicted future impacts of global warming; mitigation and adaptation strategies; and implications for energy policies and economic opportunities. New entry-level science and general education courses -- such as Climate Change Fundamentals and Energy in Nature, Technology, and Society -- are proving to be effective should be widely developed In addition, by workshops and presentations to civic and business organizations and by demonstrated examples of institutional commitment to energy conservation, energy efficiency, and renewable energy resources, colleges and universities must focus public and professional attention on the imperative for action and the means of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and countering global warming.

On the distortion of elevation dependent warming signals by quantile mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jury, Martin W.; Mendlik, Thomas; Maraun, Douglas

2017-04-01

Elevation dependent warming (EDW), the amplification of warming under climate change with elevation, is likely to accelerate changes in e.g. cryospheric and hydrological systems. Responsible for EDW is a mixture of processes including snow albedo feedback, cloud formations or the location of aerosols. The degree of incorporation of this processes varies across state of the art climate models. In a recent study we were preparing bias corrected model output of CMIP5 GCMs and CORDEX RCMs over the Himalayan region for the glacier modelling community. In a first attempt we used quantile mapping (QM) to generate this data. A beforehand model evaluation showed that more than two third of the 49 included climate models were able to reproduce positive trend differences between areas of higher and lower elevations in winter, clearly visible in all of our five observational datasets used. Regrettably, we noticed that height dependent trend signals provided by models were distorted, most of the time in the direction of less EDW, sometimes even reversing EDW signals present in the models before the bias correction. As a consequence, we refrained from using quantile mapping for our task, as EDW poses one important factor influencing the climate in high altitudes for the nearer and more distant future, and used a climate change signal preserving bias correction approach. Here we present our findings of the distortion of the EDW temperature change by QM and discuss the influence of QM on different statistical properties as well as their modifications.

Advancing NOAA NWS Arctic Program Development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Timofeyeva-Livezey, M. M.; Horsfall, F. M. C.; Meyers, J. C.; Churma, M.; Thoman, R.

2016-12-01

Environmental changes in the Arctic require changes in the way the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) delivers hydrological and meteorological information to prepare the region's societies and indigenous population for emerging challenges. These challenges include changing weather patterns, changes in the timing and extent of sea ice, accelerated soil erosion due to permafrost decline, increasing coastal vulnerably, and changes in the traditional food supply. The decline in Arctic sea ice is opening new opportunities for exploitation of natural resources, commerce, tourism, and military interest. These societal challenges and economic opportunities call for a NOAA integrated approach for delivery of environmental information including climate, water, and weather data, forecasts, and warnings. Presently the NOAA Arctic Task Force provides leadership in programmatic coordination across NOAA line offices. National Weather Service (NWS) Alaska Region and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) provide the foundational operational hydro-meteorological products and services in the Arctic. Starting in 2016, NOAA's NWS will work toward improving its role in programmatic coordination and development through assembling an NWS Arctic Task Team. The team will foster ties in the Arctic between the 11 NWS national service programs in climate, water, and weather information, as well as between Arctic programs in NWS and other NOAA line offices and external partners. One of the team outcomes is improving decision support tools for the Arctic. The Local Climate Analysis Tool (LCAT) currently has more than 1100 registered users, including NOAA staff and technical partners. The tool has been available online since 2013 (http://nws.weather.gov/lcat/ ). The tool links trusted, recommended NOAA data and analytical capabilities to assess impacts of climate variability and climate change at local levels. A new capability currently being developed will enable analysis of sea ice changes in different parts of the Arctic, and allow users to link those change to phases of climate variability such as El Nino Southern Oscillation Arctic Oscillation, etc.

Land management in the Anthropocene: is history still relevant?: Incorporating historical ecology and climate change into land management; Lansdowne, Virginia, 22–25 April 2008

USGS Publications Warehouse

Safford, Hugh D.; Betancourt, Julio L.; Hayward, Gregory D.; Wiens, John A.; Regan, Claudia M.

2008-01-01

Ecological restoration, conservation, and land management are often based on comparisons with reference sites or time periods, which are assumed to represent “natural” or “properly functioning” conditions. Such reference conditions can provide a vision of the conservation or management goal and a means to measure progress toward that vision. Although historical ecology has been used successfully to guide resource management in many parts of the world, the continuing relevance of history is now being questioned. Some scientists doubt that lessons from the past can inform management in what may be a dramatically different future, given profound climate change, accelerated land use, and an onslaught of plant and animal invasions.

[The effects of air pollution and climate change on pulmonary diseases].

PubMed

Rohde, G

2008-04-01

From as early as 1930 there has been evidence for effects on health of air pollution. Ozone, particulates and nitrogen dioxide are the most important pollutants today. The acute increase in air pollution leads to a significant raise in morbidity and mortality. Hospital admissions of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) or asthma are more frequent during these periods. Chronic exposure to pollution causes bronchitis, accelerated decline of lung function and impaired maturing of the lungs. Ozone and a residence in proximity to major roads seem to play a role in the development of asthma. A further important environmental factor is climate change, which has an impact on air pollution but also on distribution and quality of aero-allergens and the dissemination and transmission of respiratory pathogens.

High-resolution projections of 21st century climate over the Athabasca River Basin through an integrated evaluation-classification-downscaling-based climate projection framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Guanhui; Huang, Guohe; Dong, Cong; Zhu, Jinxin; Zhou, Xiong; Yao, Y.

2017-03-01

An evaluation-classification-downscaling-based climate projection (ECDoCP) framework is developed to fill a methodological gap of general circulation models (GCMs)-driven statistical-downscaling-based climate projections. ECDoCP includes four interconnected modules: GCM evaluation, climate classification, statistical downscaling, and climate projection. Monthly averages of daily minimum (Tmin) and maximum (Tmax) temperature and daily cumulative precipitation (Prec) over the Athabasca River Basin (ARB) at a 10 km resolution in the 21st century under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are projected through ECDoCP. At the octodecadal scale, temperature and precipitation would increase; after bias correction, temperature would increase with a decreased increment, while precipitation would increase only under RCP 8.5. Interannual variability of climate anomalies would increase from RCPs 4.5, 2.6, 6.0 to 8.5 for temperature and from RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 to 8.5 for precipitation. Bidecadal averaged climate anomalies would decrease from December-January-February (DJF), March-April-May (MAM), September-October-November (SON) to June-July-August (JJA) for Tmin, from DJF, SON, MAM to JJA for Tmax, and from JJA, MAM, SON to DJF for Prec. Climate projection uncertainties would decrease in May to September for temperature and in November to April for precipitation. Spatial climatic variability would not obviously change with RCPs; climatic anomalies are highly correlated with climate-variable magnitudes. Climate anomalies would decrease from upstream to downstream for temperature, and precipitation would follow an opposite pattern. The north end and the other zones would have colder and warmer days, respectively; precipitation would decrease in the upstream and increase in the remaining region. Climate changes might lead to issues, e.g., accelerated glacier/snow melting, deserving attentions of researchers and the public.

Evaluating species-specific changes in hydrologic regimes: an iterative approach for salmonids in the Greater Yellowstone Area (USA)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Al-Chokhachy, Robert K.; Sepulveda, Adam; Ray, Andrew M.; Thoma, David P.; Tercek, Michael T.

2017-01-01

Despite the importance of hydrologic regimes to the phenology, demography, and abundance of fishes such as salmonids, there have been surprisingly few syntheses that holistically assess regional, species-specific trends in hydrologic regimes within a framework of climate change. Here, we consider hydrologic regimes within the Greater Yellowstone Area in the Rocky Mountains of western North America to evaluate changes in hydrologic metrics anticipated to affect salmonids, a group of fishes with high regional ecological and socioeconomic value. Our analyses assessed trends across different sites and time periods (1930–, 1950–, and 1970–2015) as means to evaluate spatial and temporal shifts. Consistent patterns emerged from our analyses indicating substantial shifts to (1) earlier peak discharge events; (2) reductions of summer minimum streamflows; (3) declines in the duration of river ice; and (4) decreases in total volume of water. We found accelerated trends in hydrologic change for the 1970–2015 period, with an average peak discharge 7.5 days earlier, 27.5% decline in summer minimum streamflows, and a 15.6% decline in the annual total volume of water (1 October–September 30) across sites. We did observe considerable variability in magnitude of change across sites, suggesting different levels of vulnerability to a changing climate. Our analyses provide an iterative means for assessing climate predictions and an important step in identifying the climate resilience of landscapes.

Drought sensitivity of the Amazon rainforest.

PubMed

Phillips, Oliver L; Aragão, Luiz E O C; Lewis, Simon L; Fisher, Joshua B; Lloyd, Jon; López-González, Gabriela; Malhi, Yadvinder; Monteagudo, Abel; Peacock, Julie; Quesada, Carlos A; van der Heijden, Geertje; Almeida, Samuel; Amaral, Iêda; Arroyo, Luzmila; Aymard, Gerardo; Baker, Tim R; Bánki, Olaf; Blanc, Lilian; Bonal, Damien; Brando, Paulo; Chave, Jerome; de Oliveira, Atila Cristina Alves; Cardozo, Nallaret Dávila; Czimczik, Claudia I; Feldpausch, Ted R; Freitas, Maria Aparecida; Gloor, Emanuel; Higuchi, Niro; Jiménez, Eliana; Lloyd, Gareth; Meir, Patrick; Mendoza, Casimiro; Morel, Alexandra; Neill, David A; Nepstad, Daniel; Patiño, Sandra; Peñuela, Maria Cristina; Prieto, Adriana; Ramírez, Fredy; Schwarz, Michael; Silva, Javier; Silveira, Marcos; Thomas, Anne Sota; Steege, Hans Ter; Stropp, Juliana; Vásquez, Rodolfo; Zelazowski, Przemyslaw; Alvarez Dávila, Esteban; Andelman, Sandy; Andrade, Ana; Chao, Kuo-Jung; Erwin, Terry; Di Fiore, Anthony; Honorio C, Eurídice; Keeling, Helen; Killeen, Tim J; Laurance, William F; Peña Cruz, Antonio; Pitman, Nigel C A; Núñez Vargas, Percy; Ramírez-Angulo, Hirma; Rudas, Agustín; Salamão, Rafael; Silva, Natalino; Terborgh, John; Torres-Lezama, Armando

2009-03-06

Amazon forests are a key but poorly understood component of the global carbon cycle. If, as anticipated, they dry this century, they might accelerate climate change through carbon losses and changed surface energy balances. We used records from multiple long-term monitoring plots across Amazonia to assess forest responses to the intense 2005 drought, a possible analog of future events. Affected forest lost biomass, reversing a large long-term carbon sink, with the greatest impacts observed where the dry season was unusually intense. Relative to pre-2005 conditions, forest subjected to a 100-millimeter increase in water deficit lost 5.3 megagrams of aboveground biomass of carbon per hectare. The drought had a total biomass carbon impact of 1.2 to 1.6 petagrams (1.2 x 10(15) to 1.6 x 10(15) grams). Amazon forests therefore appear vulnerable to increasing moisture stress, with the potential for large carbon losses to exert feedback on climate change.

From Abrupt Change to the Future (Hans Oeschger Medal Lecture)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stocker, T.

2009-04-01

The award of the Oeschger Medal 2009 is a particular honor and pleasure for me as I was given the chance to take over from Hans Oeschger the lead of a wonderful Institute at the University of Bern in 1993. Very apprehensive first, in front of the huge expectations and challenges, I quickly found dear colleagues, close collaborators and extremely supportive staff who all dedicated their time and creativity to work for the common goal of better understanding the Earth System, its variations in the past and its sensitivity to perturbations that man is inflicting on it today. Although met with innate skepticism first by the experimental physicists, our efforts in modelling, particularly the approach of using climate models of reduced complexity, quickly paid off and provided added value to the hard won data and measurements from polar ice cores. It is clear that modelling in such a diverse environment is so much more stimulating and enriching than working on a sophisticated parameterisation in a big modelling centre. Simple models have suggested that the Earth System may have limited stability and that rather fundamental changes could be triggered by the increase of greenhouse gases. However, it is the unique results from polar ice cores, particularly from Greenland that showed that, indeed, the Earth System has limited stability and can react in extremely abrupt ways to changes in forcing. Likewise, the Antarctic ice cores have provided one of the corner stones of our knowledge about climate change: Concentrations of CO2 are today 29% higher than ever during the last 800,000 years. These two fundamental insights from the paleoclimatic archive call for accelerated research into the sensitivity of the climate system and its components to perturbations, as well as the investigation of feedback mechanisms in the biogeochemical cycles that are disturbed by the input of CO2 into the atmosphere by burning fossil fuels and land use change. Our research has only scratched the surface and many questions are still unresolved. A consistent simulation of ice age cycles including the remarkable transition from the 40 kyr to 100 kyr world is still missing. Evidence for interhemispheric connection, a persistent feature of the last ice age, remains circumstantial during earlier ice ages. Recent ice core analyses suggest extremely rapid climate change in the high latitude which is faster than any model has suggested. Sea ice changes must play an important role in that they may operate as an efficient accelerator. Modelling results are reviewed which suggest that instabilities in sea ice coverage can occur in response to relatively slow changes of the background climate. Such behaviour has been demonstrated in simulations of future climate, but it may well apply to past abrupt climate change. The paleoclimate record may therefore hold much more and more detailed information about instabilities and surprises if marine and atmospheric proxies are combined. However, only through the combination of highest-resolution paleoclimatic data and a clever hierarchy of models are we able to address and resolve these questions.

Long-Term Warming Alters Carbohydrate Degradation Potential in Temperate Forest Soils

PubMed Central

Billings, Andrew F.; Blanchard, Jeff L.; Burkhardt, Daniel B.; Frey, Serita D.; Melillo, Jerry M.; Schnabel, Julia; van Diepen, Linda T. A.

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT As Earth's climate warms, soil carbon pools and the microbial communities that process them may change, altering the way in which carbon is recycled in soil. In this study, we used a combination of metagenomics and bacterial cultivation to evaluate the hypothesis that experimentally raising soil temperatures by 5°C for 5, 8, or 20 years increased the potential for temperate forest soil microbial communities to degrade carbohydrates. Warming decreased the proportion of carbohydrate-degrading genes in the organic horizon derived from eukaryotes and increased the fraction of genes in the mineral soil associated with Actinobacteria in all studies. Genes associated with carbohydrate degradation increased in the organic horizon after 5 years of warming but had decreased in the organic horizon after warming the soil continuously for 20 years. However, a greater proportion of the 295 bacteria from 6 phyla (10 classes, 14 orders, and 34 families) isolated from heated plots in the 20-year experiment were able to depolymerize cellulose and xylan than bacterial isolates from control soils. Together, these findings indicate that the enrichment of bacteria capable of degrading carbohydrates could be important for accelerated carbon cycling in a warmer world. IMPORTANCE The massive carbon stocks currently held in soils have been built up over millennia, and while numerous lines of evidence indicate that climate change will accelerate the processing of this carbon, it is unclear whether the genetic repertoire of the microbes responsible for this elevated activity will also change. In this study, we showed that bacteria isolated from plots subject to 20 years of 5°C of warming were more likely to depolymerize the plant polymers xylan and cellulose, but that carbohydrate degradation capacity is not uniformly enriched by warming treatment in the metagenomes of soil microbial communities. This study illustrates the utility of combining culture-dependent and culture-independent surveys of microbial communities to improve our understanding of the role changing microbial communities may play in soil carbon cycling under climate change. PMID:27590813

Seed origin and warming constrain lodgepole pine recruitment, slowing the pace of population range shifts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Conlisk, Erin; Castanha, Cristina; Germino, Matthew; Veblen, Thomas T.; Smith, Jeremy M.; Moyes, Andrew B.; Kueppers, Lara M.

2018-01-01

Understanding how climate warming will affect the demographic rates of different ecotypes is critical to predicting shifts in species distributions. Here we present results from a common garden, climate change experiment in which we measured seedling recruitment of lodgepole pine, a widespread North American conifer that is also planted globally. Seeds from a low-elevation provenance had greater recruitment to their third year (by 323%) than seeds from a high-elevation provenance across sites within and above its native elevation range and across climate manipulations. Heating reduced (by 49%) recruitment to the third year of both low- and high-elevation seed sources across the elevation gradient, while watering alleviated some of the negative effects of heating (108% increase in watered plots). Demographic models based on recruitment data from the climate manipulations and long-term observations of adult populations revealed that heating could effectively halt modeled upslope range expansion except when combined with watering. Simulating fire and rapid post-fire forest recovery at lower elevations accelerated lodgepole pine expansion into the alpine, but did not alter final abundance rankings among climate scenarios. Regardless of climate scenario, greater recruitment of low-elevation seeds compensated for longer dispersal distances to treeline, assuming colonization was allowed to proceed over multiple centuries. Our results show that ecotypes from lower elevations within a species’ range could enhance recruitment and facilitate upslope range shifts with climate change.

On the origin of multi-decadal to centennial Greenland temperature anomalies over the past 800 yr

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kobashi, T.; Shindell, D. T.; Kodera, K.; Box, J. E.; Nakaegawa, T.; Kawamura, K.

2012-11-01

The surface temperature of the Greenland ice sheet is among the most important climate variables for assessing how climate change may impact human societies associated with accelerating sea level rise. However, the causes of multi-decadal-to-centennial temperature changes in Greenland are not well understood, largely owing to short observational records. To examine the causes of the Greenland temperature variability, we calculated the Greenland temperature anomalies (GTA(G-NH)) over the past 800 yr by subtracting the standardised NH temperature from the standardised Greenland temperature. It decomposes the Greenland temperature variation into background climate (NH); Polar amplification; and Regional variability (GTA(G-NH)). The Central Greenland polar amplification factor as expressed by the variance ratio = Greenland/NH is 2.6 over the past 161 yr, and 3.3-4.2 over the past 800 yr. The GTA explains 31-35% of the variation of Greenland temperature in the multi-decadal-to-centennial time scale over the past 800 yr. Another orthogonal component of the Greenland and NH temperatures, GTP(G+NH) (Greenland temperature plus = standardized Greenland temperature + standardized NH temperature) exhibited the multi-decadal variations that were likely induced by large volcanic eruptions, increasing greenhouse gasses, and internal variation of climate. We found that the GTA(G-NH) has been influenced by solar-induced changes in atmospheric circulation patterns such as those produced by North Atlantic Oscillation/Arctic Oscillation (NAO/AO). Climate modelling indicates that the anomaly is also likely linked to solar-paced changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and to associated changes in northward oceanic heat transport.

Climate change triggers effects of fungal pathogens and insect herbivores on litter decomposition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Butenschoen, Olaf; Scheu, Stefan

2014-10-01

Increasing infestation by insect herbivores and pathogenic fungi in response to climate change will inevitably impact the amount and quality of leaf litter inputs into the soil. However, little is known on the interactive effect of infestation severity and climate change on litter decomposition, and no such study has been published for deciduous forests in Central Europe. We assessed changes in initial chemical quality of beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) and maple litter (Acer platanoides L.) in response to infestation by the gall midge Mikiola fagi Hart. and the pathogenic fungus Sawadaea tulasnei Fuckel, respectively, and investigated interactive effects of infestation severity, changes in temperature and soil moisture on carbon mineralization in a short-term laboratory study. We found that infestation by the gall midge M. fagi and the pathogenic fungus S. tulasnei significantly changed the chemical quality of beech and maple litter. Changes in element concentrations were generally positive and more pronounced, and if negative less pronounced for maple than beech litter most likely due to high quality fungal tissue remaining on litter after abscission. More importantly, alterations in litter chemical quality did not translate to distinct patterns of carbon mineralization at ambient conditions, but even low amounts of infested litter accelerated carbon mineralization at moderately increased soil moisture and in particular at higher temperature. Our results indicate that insect herbivores and fungal pathogens can markedly alter initial litter chemical quality, but that afterlife effects on carbon mineralization depend on soil moisture and temperature, suggesting that increased infestation severity under projected climate change potentially increases soil carbon release in deciduous forests in Central Europe.

Key landscape ecology metrics for assessing climate change adaptation options: Rate of change and patchiness of impacts

USGS Publications Warehouse

López-Hoffman, Laura; Breshears, David D.; Allen, Craig D.; Miller, Marc L.

2013-01-01

Under a changing climate, devising strategies to help stakeholders adapt to alterations to ecosystems and their services is of utmost importance. In western North America, diminished snowpack and river flows are causing relatively gradual, homogeneous (system-wide) changes in ecosystems and services. In addition, increased climate variability is also accelerating the incidence of abrupt and patchy disturbances such as fires, floods and droughts. This paper posits that two key variables often considered in landscape ecology—the rate of change and the degree of patchiness of change—can aid in developing climate change adaptation strategies. We use two examples from the “borderland” region of the southwestern United States and northwestern Mexico. In piñon-juniper woodland die-offs that occurred in the southwestern United States during the 2000s, ecosystem services suddenly crashed in some parts of the system while remaining unaffected in other locations. The precise timing and location of die-offs was uncertain. On the other hand, slower, homogeneous change, such as the expected declines in water supply to the Colorado River delta, will likely impact the entire ecosystem, with ecosystem services everywhere in the delta subject to alteration, and all users likely exposed. The rapidity and spatial heterogeneity of faster, patchy climate change exemplified by tree die-off suggests that decision-makers and local stakeholders would be wise to operate under a Rawlsian “veil of ignorance,” and implement adaptation strategies that allow ecosystem service users to equitably share the risk of sudden loss of ecosystem services before actual ecosystem changes occur. On the other hand, in the case of slower, homogeneous, system-wide impacts to ecosystem services as exemplified by the Colorado River delta, adaptation strategies can be implemented after the changes begin, but will require a fundamental rethinking of how ecosystems and services are used and valued. In sum, understanding how the rate of change and degree of patchiness of change will constrain adaptive options is a critical consideration in preparing for climate change.

Using inventory data to determine the impact of drought on tree mortality

Treesearch

Greg C. Liknes; Christopher W. Woodall; Charles H. Perry

2012-01-01

Drought has been the subject of numerous recent studies that hint at an acceleration of tree mortality due to climate change. In particular, a recent global survey of tree mortality events implicates drought as the cause of quaking aspen mortality in Minnesota, USA in 2007. In this study, data from the Forest Inventory and Analysis program of the USDA Forest Service...

Accelerating dynamic genetic conservation efforts: Use of FT-IR spectroscopy for the rapid identification of trees resistant to destructive pathogens

Treesearch

C. Villari; R.A. Sniezko; L.E. Rodriguez-Saona; P. Bonello

2017-01-01

A strong focus on tree germplasm that can resist threats such as non-native insects and pathogens, or a changing climate, is fundamental for successful genetic conservation efforts. However, the unavailability of tools for rapid screening of tree germplasm for resistance to critical pathogens and insect pests is becoming an increasingly serious bottleneck. Here we...

[Research, impact and adaptation in public health for the new climate of Quebec].

PubMed

Gosselin, Pierre; Bélanger, Diane

2010-01-01

After its modest beginnings focusing on arctic Quebec in 1999, the Quebec research programme on health and climate change became interested in the remainder of the province around 2002. The European heat wave in 2003 accelerated the pace of this programme and prompted the Quebec health sector's participation in the Ouranos Research Consortium. The research findings from the 2003-2006 period have directly fed into the health component of the Quebec government's climate change action plan (2006-2012), financed through the first carbon tax in the Americas. This component is planning for a series of adaptations to the health network and to some other public networks, which will apply to construction, the built environment and outdoor developments, clinical management methods and practices, public health surveillance as well as emergency preparedness. In this article, the authors describe how research is supporting action and implementation, while also preparing for the future, and how this interaction has progressively established itself over the last 10 years.

Spatial and Temporal Means and Variability of Arctic Sea Ice Climate Indicators from Satellite Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, G.; Meier, W.; Bliss, A. C.; Steele, M.; Dickinson, S.

2017-12-01

Arctic sea ice has been undergoing rapid and accelerated loss since satellite-based measurements became available in late 1970s, especially the summer ice coverage. For the Arctic as a whole, the long-term trend for the annual sea ice extent (SIE) minimum is about -13.5±2.93 % per decade change relative to the 1979-2015 climate average, while the trends of the annual SIE minimum for the local regions can range from 0 to up to -42 % per decade. This presentation aims to examine and baseline spatial and temporal means and variability of Arctic sea ice climate indicators, such as the annual SIE minimum and maximum, snow/ice melt onset, etc., from a consistent, inter-calibrated, long-term time series of remote sensing sea ice data for understanding regional vulnerability and monitoring ice state for climate adaptation and risk mitigation.

Near-term acceleration of hydroclimatic change in the western U.S

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ashfaq, M.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.

2013-05-01

Given its large population, vigorous and water-intensive agricultural industry, and important ecological resources, the western United States presents a valuable case study for examining potential near-term changes in regional hydroclimate. Using a high-resolution ensemble climate model experiment, we find that increases in greenhouse forcing over the next three decades result in an acceleration of decreases in spring snowpack and a transition to a substantially more liquid-dominated water resources regime. These hydroclimatic changes are associated with increases in cold-season days above freezing and decreases in the cold-season snow-to-precipitation ratio. The changes in the temperature and precipitation regime in turn result in shifts toward earlier snowmelt, baseflow, and runoff dates throughout the region, as well as reduced annual and warm-season snowmelt and runoff. The simulated hydrologic response is dominated by changes in temperature, with the ensemble members exhibiting varying trends in cold-season precipitation over the next three decades, but consistent negative trends in cold-season freeze days, cold-season snow-to-precipitation ratio, and April 1st snow water equivalent. Given the observed impacts of recent trends in snowpack and snowmelt runoff, the projected acceleration of hydroclimatic change in the western U.S. has important implications for the availability of water for agriculture, hydropower and human consumption, as well as for the risk of wildfire, forest die-off, and loss of riparian habitat.

Near-term acceleration of hydroclimatic change in the western U.S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ashfaq, Moetasim

2013-04-01

Given its large population, vigorous and water-intensive agricultural industry, and important ecological resources, the western United States presents a valuable case study for examining potential near-term changes in regional hydroclimate. Using a high-resolution ensemble climate model experiment, we find that increases in greenhouse forcing over the next three decades result in an acceleration of decreases in spring snowpack and a transition to a substantially more liquid-dominated water resources regime. These hydroclimatic changes are associated with increases in cold-season days above freezing and decreases in the cold-season snow-to-precipitation ratio. The changes in the temperature and precipitation regime in turn result in shifts toward earlier snowmelt, baseflow, and runoff dates throughout the region, as well as reduced annual and warm-season snowmelt and runoff. The simulated hydrologic response is dominated by changes in temperature, with the ensemble members exhibiting varying trends in cold-season precipitation over the next three decades, but consistent negative trends in cold-season freeze days, cold-season snow-to-precipitation ratio, and April 1st snow water equivalent. Given the observed impacts of recent trends in snowpack and snowmelt runoff, the projected acceleration of hydroclimatic change in the western U.S. has important implications for the availability of water for agriculture, hydropower and human consumption, as well as for the risk of wildfire, forest die-off, and loss of riparian habitat.

Accelerating Time Integration for the Shallow Water Equations on the Sphere Using GPUs

DOE PAGES

Archibald, R.; Evans, K. J.; Salinger, A.

2015-06-01

The push towards larger and larger computational platforms has made it possible for climate simulations to resolve climate dynamics across multiple spatial and temporal scales. This direction in climate simulation has created a strong need to develop scalable timestepping methods capable of accelerating throughput on high performance computing. This study details the recent advances in the implementation of implicit time stepping of the spectral element dynamical core within the United States Department of Energy (DOE) Accelerated Climate Model for Energy (ACME) on graphical processing units (GPU) based machines. We demonstrate how solvers in the Trilinos project are interfaced with ACMEmore » and GPU kernels to increase computational speed of the residual calculations in the implicit time stepping method for the atmosphere dynamics. We demonstrate the optimization gains and data structure reorganization that facilitates the performance improvements.« less

The Longterm Effects of Climate Change in European Shrubland Ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emmett, B.; Sowerby, A.; Smith, A.; EU Increase-infrastructure Project Team

2011-12-01

Shrublands constitute significant and important parts of European landscapes providing a large number of important ecosystem services. Biogeochemical cycles in these ecosystems have gained little attention relative to forests and grassland systems. As climate change progresses the potential feedback from the biosphere to the atmosphere through changes in above and below-ground structure and functioning will become increasingly important. A series of replicate long term climate change experiments have been running for ca. 10 years in contrasting shrubland types across Europe to quantify; (a) the potential changes in carbon sequestration, GHG emissions and nutrient cycling, (b) the links to above and below-ground biodiversity, and (c) implications for water quality, in response to warming and repeated summer drought. Results indicate a relatively high rate of below-ground carbon allocation compared to forest systems and the importance of modifying factors such as past and current management, atmospheric deposition and soil type in determining resilience to change. Unexpectedly, sustained reduction in soil moisture over winter (between drought periods and despite major winter rainfall) was observed in the repeated summer drought treatment, along with a reduction in the maximum water-holding capacity attained. The persistent reduction in soil moisture throughout the year resulted in a year-round increase in soil respiration flux, a response that accelerated over time to 40% above control levels in the hydric, organic-rich UK system. As above-ground biomass, litter production and diversity was remarkably stable, changes in soil fungal communities and soil physical structure appear to be critical in driving changes in soil carbon fluxes in this organic-rich site. Current ecosystem models may under-estimate potential changes in carbon loss in response to climate change if changes in soil biological and physical properties are not included.

Climatic water deficit, tree species ranges, and climate change in Yosemite National Park

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lutz, James A.; Van Wagtendonk, Jan W.; Franklin, Jerry F.

2010-01-01

Aim  (1) To calculate annual potential evapotranspiration (PET), actual evapotranspiration (AET) and climatic water deficit (Deficit) with high spatial resolution; (2) to describe distributions for 17 tree species over a 2300-m elevation gradient in a 3000-km2 landscape relative to AET and Deficit; (3) to examine changes in AET and Deficit between past (c. 1700), present (1971–2000) and future (2020–49) climatological means derived from proxies, observations and projections; and (4) to infer how the magnitude of changing Deficit may contribute to changes in forest structure and composition.Location  Yosemite National Park, California, USA.Methods  We calculated the water balance within Yosemite National Park using a modified Thornthwaite-type method and correlated AET and Deficit with tree species distribution. We used input data sets with different spatial resolutions parameterized for variation in latitude, precipitation, temperature, soil water-holding capacity, slope and aspect. We used climate proxies and climate projections to model AET and Deficit for past and future climate. We compared the modelled future water balance in Yosemite with current species water-balance ranges in North America.Results  We calculated species climatic envelopes over broad ranges of environmental gradients – a range of 310 mm for soil water-holding capacity, 48.3°C for mean monthly temperature (January minima to July maxima), and 918 mm yr−1 for annual precipitation. Tree species means were differentiated by AET and Deficit, and at higher levels of Deficit, species means were increasingly differentiated. Modelled Deficit for all species increased by a mean of 5% between past (c. 1700) and present (1971–2000). Projected increases in Deficit between present and future (2020–49) were 23% across all plots.Main conclusions  Modelled changes in Deficit between past, present and future climate scenarios suggest that recent past changes in forest structure and composition may accelerate in the future, with species responding individualistically to further declines in water availability. Declining water availability may disproportionately affect Pinus monticola and Tsuga mertensiana. Fine-scale heterogeneity in soil water-holding capacity, aspect and slope implies that plant water balance may vary considerably within the grid cells of kilometre-scale climate models. Sub-grid-cell soil and topographical data can partially compensate for the lack of spatial heterogeneity in gridded climate data, potentially improving vegetation-change projections in mountainous landscapes with heterogeneous topography.

The physical and chemical stability of anti-tuberculosis fixed-dose combination products under accelerated climatic conditions.

PubMed

Bhutani, H; Mariappan, T T; Singh, S

2004-09-01

To determine the physical and chemical stability of anti-tuberculosis fixed-dose combinations (FDC) of rifampicin (RMP), isoniazid (INH), pyrazinamide (PZA) and ethambutol (EMB) sold on the Indian market. The products were stored for 3 months under ICH/WHO accelerated conditions (40 degrees C / 75% RH), with and without the original packaging in the presence and absence of light. The initial RMP, INH and PZA content was found to be within the range of 90-110% of the label claim. However, the products were found to have some chemical instability even initially; one of the tablets also showed physical instability. Under accelerated conditions, the unpackaged products underwent severe changes, whereas both physical and chemical changes were also observed in the packaged formulations. The physical changes were stronger under lighted conditions. A significant finding is that PZA and perhaps EMB may play a catalytic role in the interaction between INH and RMP. This study suggests that, unless they are packed in barrier packaging, anti-tuberculosis FDC formulations should be considered unstable, and due consideration should be given to their development pharmaceutics, packaging and stability testing.

Climate Generation: Advancing Climate Action through Education, Public Engagement and Youth Leadership

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poppleton, K. L. I.

2017-12-01

Climate Generation: A Will Steger Legacy empowers youth, educators, decision-makers and the public to foster climate literacy and action with the goal of building a more equitable and resilient future. We have over eleven years of experience delivering high-quality K-12 education, public engagement and youth leadership programming, reaching over 75,000 people, 35,000 students and 17,000 educators since 2006. By engaging educators, youth, and the public, we believe that communities can be better positioned to build a resilient and equitable future. For this reason we strive to engage with all these sectors through innovative programming and policy initiatives. Communities are resilient when individuals are connected to each other, resources, and decision-makers. Sharing personal narratives, and highlighting locally relevant solutions are all tools that Climate Generation employs to engage the public. We do this through community wide convenings, as well as sector specific events including at breweries, art fairs, and businesses. Education is also an integral piece for sustained action on climate change. We support educators with a science-based, interdisciplinary model of climate change education that engages all learners, and fosters climate literacy and action. We develop curriculum and offer professional development, encouraging teachers to develop today's students into action-competent citizens. Finally, Climate Generation recognizes the importance of empowering high school youth as a key strategy in transitioning to a just and sustainable future for all. We believe in the inherent genius of youth and know from experience that mentorship fosters powerful youth leadership at the community level, inspiring peers, family members, and local decision-makers to take critical action on climate change solutions. In order to accelerate and implement action on climate change we must take a multi-faceted approach: we are building public will for strong climate action at the local and state level; preparing educators and their students to understand the problem and implement clean energy solutions; and pushing our decision-makers to do the right thing via pressure from their constituents, including youth, who can effectively articulate equitable policy solutions and hold officials accountable.

Climate Change, Degradation of Permafrost, and Hazards to Infrastructure in the Circumpolar Arctic.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anisimov, O.

2001-12-01

Warming, thawing and disappearance of permafrost have accelerated in recent decades damaging engineered structures and raising public concerns. By the middle of the 21st century anthropogenic climate change may cause 2 to 3 C warming of the frozen ground, 10% to 16% reduction of the total permafrost area, 30% to 50% deepening of the active-layer thickness, and shifts between the permafrost zones due to cumulative effect of changing surface temperature, soil moisture, and vegetation. Such changes will have important implications for northern engineering and infrastructure built upon permafrost. The foundations supporting engineered structures are designed for the constant climatic conditions with construction-specific safety factor, which in the practice of the cold-region engineering varies typically from 5% to 60% with respect to the bearing capacity. In the zone of discontinuous permafrost a 2.0 C rise in air temperature may decrease the bearing capacity of frozen ground under buildings by more than a half. This may have important consequences for the infrastructure and particularly for residential buildings constructed in the permafrost zone between 1950 and 1990 in northern Russian cities Vorkuta, Yakytsk, Norylsk, and Magadan. Many of them are already weakened or damaged, which may in part be attributed to the effect of climate change. Susceptibility of permafrost to environmental hazards associated with thermokarst, ground settlement, and other destructive cryogenic processes may be crudely evaluated using the geocryological hazard index, which is the combination of the predicted for the future climate relative change in the active-layer thickness and the ground ice content. Predictive maps constructed for scenarios of climate change indicated that several population centers (Barrow, Inuvik), river terminals on the arctic coast of Russia (Salekhard, Igarka, Dudinka, Tiksi), and gas production complexes with associated infrastructure in northwest Siberia fall in the high-risk category with respect to potential environmental hazards associated with degradation of permafrost.

Losing ground: past history and future fate of Arctic small mammals in a changing climate.

PubMed

Prost, Stefan; Guralnick, Robert P; Waltari, Eric; Fedorov, Vadim B; Kuzmina, Elena; Smirnov, Nickolay; van Kolfschoten, Thijs; Hofreiter, Michael; Vrieling, Klaas

2013-06-01

According to the IPCC, the global average temperature is likely to increase by 1.4-5.8 °C over the period from 1990 to 2100. In Polar regions, the magnitude of such climatic changes is even larger than in temperate and tropical biomes. This amplified response is particularly worrisome given that the so-far moderate warming is already impacting Arctic ecosystems. Predicting species responses to rapid warming in the near future can be informed by investigating past responses, as, like the rest of the planet, the Arctic experienced recurrent cycles of temperature increase and decrease (glacial-interglacial changes) in the past. In this study, we compare the response of two important prey species of the Arctic ecosystem, the collared lemming and the narrow-skulled vole, to Late Quaternary climate change. Using ancient DNA and Ecological Niche Modeling (ENM), we show that the two species, which occupy similar, but not identical ecological niches, show markedly different responses to climatic and environmental changes within broadly similar habitats. We empirically demonstrate, utilizing coalescent model-testing approaches, that collared lemming populations decreased substantially after the Last Glacial Maximum; a result consistent with distributional loss over the same period based on ENM results. Given this strong association, we projected the current niche onto future climate conditions based on IPCC 4.0 scenarios, and forecast accelerating loss of habitat along southern range boundaries with likely associated demographic consequences. Narrow-skulled vole distribution and demography, by contrast, was only moderately impacted by past climatic changes, but predicted future changes may begin to affect their current western range boundaries. Our work, founded on multiple lines of evidence suggests a future of rapidly geographically shifting Arctic small mammal prey communities, some of whom are on the edge of existence, and whose fate may have ramifications for the whole Arctic food web and ecosystem. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Primary, secondary and tertiary effects of eco-climatic change: the medical response.

PubMed

Butler, Colin D; Harley, David

2010-04-01

Climatic and ecological change threaten human health globally. Manifestations include lost species, vanishing glaciers and more frequent heavy rain. In the second half of this century, accelerating sea level rise is likely to cause crop loss, and population dislocation. These problems may be magnified by dysfunctional human responses, including conflict. The population health consequences of these events can be classified as primary, secondary and tertiary. Primary signs include the acute and chronic stress of heat waves, and trauma from increased bush fires and flooding. Secondary signs are indirect, such as an altered distribution of arthropod vectors, intermediate hosts and pathogens that will produce changes in the epidemiology of many infectious diseases. More severe future health consequences of climate change are classified here as tertiary effects. If moderate or severe climate change scenarios prove accurate then these manifestations will occur over large areas, and could include famine, war and significant population displacement. Such effects would threaten governance and health. The health professions must respond to these challenges, especially the task of recognising and seeking to minimise tertiary health consequences. The gap between what we know and what we need to know concerning these issues can be narrowed by a new field of medical practice. The framework for this emerging discipline includes climate change, ecology and global health. Combined, these dimensions may be called ecomedicine. Actions to reduce individual emissions, to promote active transport (with its 'co-benefit' of preventing chronic disease), and involvement in group action to protect the environment and to prevent war, informed by understanding of the health of individual patients and populations, will be central to the practice of ecomedicine.

Global agricultural intensification during climate change: a role for genomics.

PubMed

Abberton, Michael; Batley, Jacqueline; Bentley, Alison; Bryant, John; Cai, Hongwei; Cockram, James; de Oliveira, Antonio Costa; Cseke, Leland J; Dempewolf, Hannes; De Pace, Ciro; Edwards, David; Gepts, Paul; Greenland, Andy; Hall, Anthony E; Henry, Robert; Hori, Kiyosumi; Howe, Glenn Thomas; Hughes, Stephen; Humphreys, Mike; Lightfoot, David; Marshall, Athole; Mayes, Sean; Nguyen, Henry T; Ogbonnaya, Francis C; Ortiz, Rodomiro; Paterson, Andrew H; Tuberosa, Roberto; Valliyodan, Babu; Varshney, Rajeev K; Yano, Masahiro

2016-04-01

Agriculture is now facing the 'perfect storm' of climate change, increasing costs of fertilizer and rising food demands from a larger and wealthier human population. These factors point to a global food deficit unless the efficiency and resilience of crop production is increased. The intensification of agriculture has focused on improving production under optimized conditions, with significant agronomic inputs. Furthermore, the intensive cultivation of a limited number of crops has drastically narrowed the number of plant species humans rely on. A new agricultural paradigm is required, reducing dependence on high inputs and increasing crop diversity, yield stability and environmental resilience. Genomics offers unprecedented opportunities to increase crop yield, quality and stability of production through advanced breeding strategies, enhancing the resilience of major crops to climate variability, and increasing the productivity and range of minor crops to diversify the food supply. Here we review the state of the art of genomic-assisted breeding for the most important staples that feed the world, and how to use and adapt such genomic tools to accelerate development of both major and minor crops with desired traits that enhance adaptation to, or mitigate the effects of climate change. © 2015 The Authors. Plant Biotechnology Journal published by Society for Experimental Biology and The Association of Applied Biologists and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Coupled impacts of climate and land use change across a river-lake continuum: insights from an integrated assessment model of Lake Champlain’s Missisquoi Basin, 2000-2040

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zia, Asim; Bomblies, Arne; Schroth, Andrew W.; Koliba, Christopher; Isles, Peter D. F.; Tsai, Yushiou; Mohammed, Ibrahim N.; Bucini, Gabriela; Clemins, Patrick J.; Turnbull, Scott; Rodgers, Morgan; Hamed, Ahmed; Beckage, Brian; Winter, Jonathan; Adair, Carol; Galford, Gillian L.; Rizzo, Donna; Van Houten, Judith

2016-11-01

Global climate change (GCC) is projected to bring higher-intensity precipitation and higher-variability temperature regimes to the Northeastern United States. The interactive effects of GCC with anthropogenic land use and land cover changes (LULCCs) are unknown for watershed level hydrological dynamics and nutrient fluxes to freshwater lakes. Increased nutrient fluxes can promote harmful algal blooms, also exacerbated by warmer water temperatures due to GCC. To address the complex interactions of climate, land and humans, we developed a cascading integrated assessment model to test the impacts of GCC and LULCC on the hydrological regime, water temperature, water quality, bloom duration and severity through 2040 in transnational Lake Champlain’s Missisquoi Bay. Temperature and precipitation inputs were statistically downscaled from four global circulation models (GCMs) for three Representative Concentration Pathways. An agent-based model was used to generate four LULCC scenarios. Combined climate and LULCC scenarios drove a distributed hydrological model to estimate river discharge and nutrient input to the lake. Lake nutrient dynamics were simulated with a 3D hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model. We find accelerated GCC could drastically limit land management options to maintain water quality, but the nature and severity of this impact varies dramatically by GCM and GCC scenario.

Regional air quality management aspects of climate change: impact of climate mitigation options on regional air emissions.

PubMed

Rudokas, Jason; Miller, Paul J; Trail, Marcus A; Russell, Armistead G

2015-04-21

We investigate the projected impact of six climate mitigation scenarios on U.S. emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and nitrogen oxides (NOX) associated with energy use in major sectors of the U.S. economy (commercial, residential, industrial, electricity generation, and transportation). We use the EPA U.S. 9-region national database with the MARKet Allocation energy system model to project emissions changes over the 2005 to 2050 time frame. The modeled scenarios are two carbon tax, two low carbon transportation, and two biomass fuel choice scenarios. In the lower carbon tax and both biomass fuel choice scenarios, SO2 and NOX achieve reductions largely through pre-existing rules and policies, with only relatively modest additional changes occurring from the climate mitigation measures. The higher carbon tax scenario projects greater declines in CO2 and SO2 relative to the 2050 reference case, but electricity sector NOX increases. This is a result of reduced investments in power plant NOX controls in earlier years in anticipation of accelerated coal power plant retirements, energy penalties associated with carbon capture systems, and shifting of NOX emissions in later years from power plants subject to a regional NOX cap to those in regions not subject to the cap.

Heliospheric plasma sheet (HPS) impingement onto the magnetosphere as a cause of relativistic electron dropouts (REDs) via coherent EMIC wave scattering with possible consequences for climate change mechanisms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsurutani, B. T.; Hajra, R.; Tanimori, T.; Takada, A.; Bhanu, R.; Mannucci, A. J.; Lakhina, G. S.; Kozyra, J. U.; Shiokawa, K.; Lee, L. C.; Echer, E.; Reddy, R. V.; Gonzalez, W. D.

2016-10-01

A new scenario is presented for the cause of magnetospheric relativistic electron decreases (REDs) and potential effects in the atmosphere and on climate. High-density solar wind heliospheric plasmasheet (HPS) events impinge onto the magnetosphere, compressing it along with remnant noon-sector outer-zone magnetospheric 10-100 keV protons. The betatron accelerated protons generate coherent electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves through a temperature anisotropy (T⊥/T|| > 1) instability. The waves in turn interact with relativistic electrons and cause the rapid loss of these particles to a small region of the atmosphere. A peak total energy deposition of 3 × 1020 ergs is derived for the precipitating electrons. Maximum energy deposition and creation of electron-ion pairs at 30-50 km and at < 30 km altitude are quantified. We focus the readers' attention on the relevance of this present work to two climate change mechanisms. Wilcox et al. (1973) noted a correlation between solar wind heliospheric current sheet (HCS) crossings and high atmospheric vorticity centers at 300 mb altitude. Tinsley et al. has constructed a global circuit model which depends on particle precipitation into the atmosphere. Other possible scenarios potentially affecting weather/climate change are also discussed.

Quantifying the Value of Downscaled Climate Model Information for Adaptation Decisions: When is Downscaling a Smart Decision?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Terando, A. J.; Wootten, A.; Eaton, M. J.; Runge, M. C.; Littell, J. S.; Bryan, A. M.; Carter, S. L.

2015-12-01

Two types of decisions face society with respect to anthropogenic climate change: (1) whether to enact a global greenhouse gas abatement policy, and (2) how to adapt to the local consequences of current and future climatic changes. The practice of downscaling global climate models (GCMs) is often used to address (2) because GCMs do not resolve key features that will mediate global climate change at the local scale. In response, the development of downscaling techniques and models has accelerated to aid decision makers seeking adaptation guidance. However, quantifiable estimates of the value of information are difficult to obtain, particularly in decision contexts characterized by deep uncertainty and low system-controllability. Here we demonstrate a method to quantify the additional value that decision makers could expect if research investments are directed towards developing new downscaled climate projections. As a proof of concept we focus on a real-world management problem: whether to undertake assisted migration for an endangered tropical avian species. We also take advantage of recently published multivariate methods that account for three vexing issues in climate impacts modeling: maximizing climate model quality information, accounting for model dependence in ensembles of opportunity, and deriving probabilistic projections. We expand on these global methods by including regional (Caribbean Basin) and local (Puerto Rico) domains. In the local domain, we test whether a high resolution (2km) dynamically downscaled GCM reduces the multivariate error estimate compared to the original coarse-scale GCM. Initial tests show little difference between the downscaled and original GCM multivariate error. When propagated through to a species population model, the Value of Information analysis indicates that the expected utility that would accrue to the manager (and species) if this downscaling were completed may not justify the cost compared to alternative actions.

Connecting differential responses of native and invasive riparian plants to climate change and environmental alteration.

PubMed

Flanagan, Neal E; Richardson, Curtis J; Ho, Mengchi

2015-04-01

Climate change is predicted to impact river systems in the southeastern United States through alterations of temperature, patterns of precipitation and hydrology. Future climate scenarios for the southeastern United States predict (1) surface water temperatures will warm in concert with air temperature, (2) storm flows will increase and base flows will decrease, and (3) the annual pattern of synchronization between hydroperiod and water temperature will be altered. These alterations are expected to disturb floodplain plant communities, making them more vulnerable to establishment of invasive species. The primary objective of this study is to evaluate whether native and invasive riparian plant assemblages respond differently to alterations of climate and land use. To study the response of riparian wetlands to watershed and climate alterations, we utilized an existing natural experiment imbedded in gradients of temperature and hydrology-found among dammed and undammed rivers. We evaluated a suite of environmental variables related to water temperature, hydrology, watershed disturbance, and edaphic conditions to identify the strongest predictors of native and invasive species abundances. We found that native species abundance is strongly influenced by climate-driven variables such as temperature and hydrology, while invasive species abundance is more strongly influenced by site-specific factors such as land use and soil nutrient availability. The patterns of synchronization between plant phenology, annual hydrographs, and annual water temperature cycles may be key factors sustaining the viability of native riparian plant communities. Our results demonstrate the need to understand the interactions between climate, land use, and nutrient management in maintaining the species diversity of riparian plant communities. Future climate change is likely to result in diminished competitiveness of native plant species, while the competitiveness of invasive species will increase due to anthropogenic watershed disturbance and accelerated nutrient and sediment export.

Potential influence of wildfire in modulating climate-induced forest redistribution in a central Rocky Mountain landscape

USGS Publications Warehouse

Campbell, John L.; Shinneman, Douglas

2017-01-01

IntroductionClimate change is expected to impose significant tension on the geographic distribution of tree species. Yet, tree species range shifts may be delayed by their long life spans, capacity to withstand long periods of physiological stress, and dispersal limitations. Wildfire could theoretically break this biological inertia by killing forest canopies and facilitating species redistribution under changing climate. We investigated the capacity of wildfire to modulate climate-induced tree redistribution across a montane landscape in the central Rocky Mountains under three climate scenarios (contemporary and two warmer future climates) and three wildfire scenarios (representing historical, suppressed, and future fire regimes).MethodsDistributions of four common tree species were projected over 90 years by pairing a climate niche model with a forest landscape simulation model that simulates species dispersal, establishment, and mortality under alternative disturbance regimes and climate scenarios.ResultsThree species (Douglas-fir, lodgepole pine, subalpine fir) declined in abundance over time, due to climate-driven contraction in area suitable for establishment, while one species (ponderosa pine) was unable to exploit climate-driven expansion of area suitable for establishment. Increased fire frequency accelerated declines in area occupied by Douglas-fir, lodgepole pine, and subalpine fir, and it maintained local abundance but not range expansion of ponderosa pine.ConclusionsWildfire may play a larger role in eliminating these conifer species along trailing edges of their distributions than facilitating establishment along leading edges, in part due to dispersal limitations and interspecific competition, and future populations may increasingly depend on persistence in locations unfavorable for their establishment.

The impact of boreal forest fire on climate warming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Randerson, J.T.; Liu, H.; Flanner, M.G.; Chambers, S.D.; Jin, Y.; Hess, P.G.; Pfister, G.; Mack, M.C.; Treseder, K.K.; Welp, L.R.; Chapin, F.S.; Harden, J.W.; Goulden, M.L.; Lyons, E.; Neff, J.C.; Schuur, E.A.G.; Zender, C.S.

2006-01-01

We report measurements and analysis of a boreal forest fire, integrating the effects of greenhouse gases, aerosols, black carbon deposition on snow and sea ice, and postfire changes in surface albedo. The net effect of all agents was to increase radiative forcing during the first year (34 ?? 31 Watts per square meter of burned area), but to decrease radiative forcing when averaged over an 80-year fire cycle (-2.3 ?? 2.2 Watts per square meter) because multidecadal increases in surface albedo had a larger impact than fire-emitted greenhouse gases. This result implies that future increases in boreal fire may not accelerate climate warming.

The impact of boreal forest fire on climate warming.

PubMed

Randerson, J T; Liu, H; Flanner, M G; Chambers, S D; Jin, Y; Hess, P G; Pfister, G; Mack, M C; Treseder, K K; Welp, L R; Chapin, F S; Harden, J W; Goulden, M L; Lyons, E; Neff, J C; Schuur, E A G; Zender, C S

2006-11-17

We report measurements and analysis of a boreal forest fire, integrating the effects of greenhouse gases, aerosols, black carbon deposition on snow and sea ice, and postfire changes in surface albedo. The net effect of all agents was to increase radiative forcing during the first year (34 +/- 31 Watts per square meter of burned area), but to decrease radiative forcing when averaged over an 80-year fire cycle (-2.3 +/- 2.2 Watts per square meter) because multidecadal increases in surface albedo had a larger impact than fire-emitted greenhouse gases. This result implies that future increases in boreal fire may not accelerate climate warming.

PERSPECTIVE: Keeping a closer eye on fossil fuel CO2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nelson, Peter F.

2009-12-01

Peter F Nelson The world is watching expectantly as the clock winds down towards the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP15; http://en.cop15.dk/) to be held 7-18 December 2009 in Copenhagen. While most are now convinced of the need for a strong and concerted response to the climate challenge, the exact nature and extent of that response remains uncertain. There is evidence (Barnett 2009) that current estimates of emissions now exceed all but the most extreme emission scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). If that increase in emissions persists then temperature increases of 4 °C by 2060 have been predicted (Barnett 2009). An inevitable result of the potential for such extreme climate change is to advance the need for multiple adaptation strategies to decision making about, for example, infrastructure, urban planning and forest management. These strategies need to do more than incremental adaptation (Barnett 2009); instead transformative approaches may be required to adapt. The timing of the response is also proving to be a critical determining factor in the effectiveness of global actions. Using a simple conceptual model of emissions, Vaughan and co-workers (Vaughan et al 2009) show that avoiding dangerous climate change is more effective if such action begins early. Early action is also more effective than acting more aggressively later (Vaughan et al 2009). Uncertainties, although reduced, are still significant in the science of climate change. The interactions between control of particulate air pollutants and climate change are particularly challenging (Arneth et al 2009, Shindell et al 2009) but many other uncertainties require continuing research. The scientific uncertainties are only one aspect of an intense interdisciplinary, political, economic and cultural dialogue. It is clear that political will, economic interest, target setting for emissions reductions, adaptation, technology and financing (Pan 2009) will all have a major influence on progress to an international agreement. It is important that the political challenges are not underestimated. Long-term observers of the negotiations necessary for global agreements (Inman 2009) are pessimistic about the chances for success at COP15, and argue that agreements between smaller groups of countries may be more effective. China and other developing countries clearly expect greater emission cuts by developed nations as a condition for a successful deal (Pan 2009). Conversely, the constraints on US climate policies are considerable, notably those imposed by fears that an international agreement that does not include equitable emission control measures for developing countries like China and India, will compromise the agreement and reduce its effectiveness (Skodvin and Andresen 2009). In this context the need for earlier, and more reliable, information on emissions is a high priority. Myhre and coworkers (Myhre et al 2009) provide an efficient method for calculating global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel combustion by combining industry statistics with data from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC; http://cdiac.ornl.gov/). Recent analyses of carbon dioxide emission data show a worrying acceleration in emissions, beyond even the most extreme IPCC projections, but are based largely on the CDIAC which gives information about emissions released two to three years before real time (Canadell et al 2007, Raupach et al 2007). The approach used by Myhre et al (2009) uses BP annual statistics of fossil fuel consumption and has a much shorter lag, of the order of six months. Of significant concern is that their analysis of the data also reveals that the recent strong increase in fossil fuel CO2 is largely driven by an increase in emissions from coal, most significantly in China. By contrast, emissions from oil and gas continue to follow longer-term historical trends. Earlier and accurate data on CO2 emissions is important for a range of reasons. It allows comparison with the scenarios developed by the IPCC; uncertainties in emission scenarios are one of the major sources of uncertainties in temperature projections, particularly at longer time scales, where temperature projections are increasingly dependent on specific emission scenarios (IPCC 2007). There have also been recent suggestions (Le Quere et al 2007) of a weakening of the oceanic sink for CO2, and earlier information on emission pathways will be important for testing this hypothesis. Some observers (Levi 2009) believe that the best outcome from COP15 may be an agreement on measurement, reporting and verification. While this may seem like a modest ambition, progress in this area is essential to a successful climate change measure and to compliance with any international agreement. As Levi (2009) points out, `such verification will help make it more politically feasible to undertake similar emissions-cutting actions elsewhere, including in the United States'. The approach of Myhre et al is a very useful tool in such independent verification. References Arneth A, Unger N, Kulmala M and Andreae M O 2009 Clean the air, heat the planet? Science 326 672-3 Barnett A 2009 No easy way out Nature Reports Climate Change 3 128-9 Canadell J G, Le Quere C, Raupach M R, Field C B, Buitenhuis, E T, Ciais P, Conway T J, Gillett N P, Houghton R A and Marland G 2007 Contributions to accelerating atmospheric CO2 growth from economic activity, carbon intensity, and efficiency of natural sinks Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 104 18866-70 Inman M 2009 The climate change game Nature Reports Climate Change 3 130-3 IPCC 2007 Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Report on Climate Change (Geneva: IPCC) 104pp Le Quere C, Rodenbeck C, Buitenhuis E T, Conway T J, Langenfelds R, Gomez A, Labuschagne C, Ramonet M, Nakazawa T, Metzl N, Gillett N and Heimann M 2007 Saturation of the Southern Ocean CO2 sink due to recent climate change Science 316 1735-8 Levi M A 2009 Copenhagen's inconvenient truth: how to salvage the climate conference Foreign Affairs 92-103 Myhre G, Alterskjaer K and Lowe D 2009 A fast method for updating global fossil fuel carbon dioxide emissions Environ. Res. Lett. 4 034012 Pan J 2009 China expects leadership from rich nations Nature 461 1055 Raupach M R, Marland G, Ciais P, Le Quere C, Canadell J G, Klepper G and Field C B 2007 Global and regional drivers of accelerating CO2 emissions Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 104 10288-93 Shindell D T, Faluvegi G, Koch D M, Schmidt G A, Unger N and Bauer S E 2009 Improved attribution of climate forcing to emissions Science 326 716-8 Skodvin T and Andresen S 2009 An agenda for change in US climate policies? Presidential ambitions and congressional powers Int. Environ. Agreements: Politics Law Econ. 9 263-80 Vaughan N E, Lenton T M and Shepherd J G 2009 Climate change mitigation: trade-offs between delay and strength of action required Climatic Change 96 29-43

Representation of deforestation impacts on climate, water, and nutrient cycles in the ACME earth system model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cai, X.; Riley, W. J.; Zhu, Q.

2017-12-01

Deforestation causes a series of changes to the climate, water, and nutrient cycles. Employing a state-of-the-art earth system model—ACME (Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy), we comprehensively investigate the impacts of deforestation on these processes. We first assess the performance of the ACME Land Model (ALM) in simulating runoff, evapotranspiration, albedo, and plant productivity at 42 FLUXNET sites. The single column mode of ACME is then used to examine climate effects (temperature cooling/warming) and responses of runoff, evapotranspiration, and nutrient fluxes to deforestation. This approach separates local effects of deforestation from global circulation effects. To better understand the deforestation effects in a global context, we use the coupled (atmosphere, land, and slab ocean) mode of ACME to demonstrate the impacts of deforestation on global climate, water, and nutrient fluxes. Preliminary results showed that the land component of ACME has advantages in simulating these processes and that local deforestation has potentially large impacts on runoff and atmospheric processes.

Did accelerated North American ice sheet melt contribute to the 8.2 ka cooling event ?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matero, Ilkka S. O.; Gregoire, Lauren J.; Ivanović, Ruža F.; Tindall, Julia C.; Haywood, Alan M.

2016-04-01

The 8.2 ka event was an abrupt cooling of the Northern Hemisphere 8,200 years ago. It is an almost ideal case study to benchmark the sensitivity of climate models to freshening of the North Atlantic by ice sheet melt (Schmidt and LeGrande, 2005). The event is attributed to the outburst of North American proglacial lakes into the Labrador Sea, causing a slow-down in Atlantic overturning circulation and cooling of 1-2.5 °C around the N. Atlantic (Alley and Ágústsdóttir,2005). Climate models fail to simulate the ~150 year duration of the event when forced with a sudden (0.5 to 5 years) drainage of the lakes (Morrill et al., 2013a). This could be because of missing forcings. For example, the separation of ice sheet domes around the Hudson Bay is thought to have produced a pronounced acceleration in ice sheet melt through a saddle collapse mechanism around the time of the event (Gregoire et al., 2012). Here we investigate whether this century scale acceleration of melt contributed to the observed climatic perturbation, using the coupled Ocean-Atmosphere climate model HadCM3. We designed and ran a set of simulations with temporally variable ice melt scenarios based on a model of the North American ice sheet. The simulated magnitude and duration of the cold period is controlled by the duration and amount of freshwater introduced to the ocean. With a 100-200 year-long acceleration of ice melt up to a maximum of 0.61 Sv, we simulate 1-3 °C cooling in the North Atlantic and ~0.5-1 °C cooling in Continental Europe; which are similar in magnitude to the ~1-2 °C cooling estimated from records for these areas (Morrill et al., 2013b). Some of the observed features are however not reproduced in our experiments, such as the most pronounced cooling of ~6 °C observed in central Greenland (Alley and Ágústsdóttir, 2005). The results suggest that the ~150 year North Atlantic and European cooling could be caused by ~200 years of accelerated North American ice sheet melt. This forcing should therefore be taken into account in the setup of 8.2 ka simulations. References: Alley, R.B., Ágústsdóttir, A.M., 2005. The 8 k event: cause and consequences of a major Holocene abrupt climate change. Quaternary Science Reviews 24 (10-11),1123-1149. Gregoire, L. J., A. J. Payne, and P. J. Valdes (2012), Deglacial rapid sea level rises caused by ice-sheet saddle collapses, Nature, 487, 219-223. Morrill, C., A. N. LeGrande, H. Renssen, P. Bakker, and B. L. Otto-Bliesner (2013a), Model sensitivity to North Atlantic freshwater forcing at 8.2 ka, Clim. Past, 9, 955-968. Morrill, C., D. M. Anderson, B. A. Bauer, R. Buckner, E. P. Gille, W. S. Gross, M. Hartman, and A. Shah (2013b), Proxy benchmarks for inter-comparison of 8.2 ka simulations, Clim. Past, 9, 423-432. Schmidt, G. A., and A. N. LeGrande (2005), The Goldilocks abrupt climate change event, Quat. Sci. Rev., 24, 1109-1110.

A millennium of Mediterranean climate change and forest history in central Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mensing, S. A.; Tunno, I.; Piovesan, G.

2010-12-01

A 1100 year sedimentary sequence from a lake in central Italy near Rome (Lago Lungo, Lazio, 379 m a.s.l.) was sampled for pollen and charcoal at an average interval of 26 years providing a high-resolution reconstruction of vegetation from 885 AD to the present. Pollen percentages support historical documents that describe periodic deforestation and agricultural expansion during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA). Forests recovered about 1400 AD following depopulation associated with the black plague and socio-economic instability and a shift to cool wet climate during the Little Ice Age (LIA). Mixed deciduous forest reached a maximum in 1550 AD, approximately one century later than many sites across Western Europe. A less diverse less dense forest emerged after 1650 AD following the plague of 1656 AD. There is no evidence that excessive cutting, burning and erosion during the medieval period caused permanent degradation of the landscape. Forests appear to have recovered rapidly when land use declined and climate became favorable. Comparison of the pollen data with reconstructed Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) of Morocco and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) indicate periods of deforestation and woodland regeneration coincide with climate change. During warm dry climate, deforestation accelerated and agriculture expanded, and during extended cool wet climate, conditions for cereal cultivation deteriorated, forests and wetland expanded, and the local agricultural system collapsed. These results show that in the Mediterranean, collapse of local agricultural systems may also occur during extended periods of cool/wet climate.

Chapter 1. Impacts of the oceans on climate change.

PubMed

Reid, Philip C; Fischer, Astrid C; Lewis-Brown, Emily; Meredith, Michael P; Sparrow, Mike; Andersson, Andreas J; Antia, Avan; Bates, Nicholas R; Bathmann, Ulrich; Beaugrand, Gregory; Brix, Holger; Dye, Stephen; Edwards, Martin; Furevik, Tore; Gangstø, Reidun; Hátún, Hjálmar; Hopcroft, Russell R; Kendall, Mike; Kasten, Sabine; Keeling, Ralph; Le Quéré, Corinne; Mackenzie, Fred T; Malin, Gill; Mauritzen, Cecilie; Olafsson, Jón; Paull, Charlie; Rignot, Eric; Shimada, Koji; Vogt, Meike; Wallace, Craig; Wang, Zhaomin; Washington, Richard

2009-01-01

The oceans play a key role in climate regulation especially in part buffering (neutralising) the effects of increasing levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and rising global temperatures. This chapter examines how the regulatory processes performed by the oceans alter as a response to climate change and assesses the extent to which positive feedbacks from the ocean may exacerbate climate change. There is clear evidence for rapid change in the oceans. As the main heat store for the world there has been an accelerating change in sea temperatures over the last few decades, which has contributed to rising sea-level. The oceans are also the main store of carbon dioxide (CO2), and are estimated to have taken up approximately 40% of anthropogenic-sourced CO2 from the atmosphere since the beginning of the industrial revolution. A proportion of the carbon uptake is exported via the four ocean 'carbon pumps' (Solubility, Biological, Continental Shelf and Carbonate Counter) to the deep ocean reservoir. Increases in sea temperature and changing planktonic systems and ocean currents may lead to a reduction in the uptake of CO2 by the ocean; some evidence suggests a suppression of parts of the marine carbon sink is already underway. While the oceans have buffered climate change through the uptake of CO2 produced by fossil fuel burning this has already had an impact on ocean chemistry through ocean acidification and will continue to do so. Feedbacks to climate change from acidification may result from expected impacts on marine organisms (especially corals and calcareous plankton), ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles. The polar regions of the world are showing the most rapid responses to climate change. As a result of a strong ice-ocean influence, small changes in temperature, salinity and ice cover may trigger large and sudden changes in regional climate with potential downstream feedbacks to the climate of the rest of the world. A warming Arctic Ocean may lead to further releases of the potent greenhouse gas methane from hydrates and permafrost. The Southern Ocean plays a critical role in driving, modifying and regulating global climate change via the carbon cycle and through its impact on adjacent Antarctica. The Antarctic Peninsula has shown some of the most rapid rises in atmospheric and oceanic temperature in the world, with an associated retreat of the majority of glaciers. Parts of the West Antarctic ice sheet are deflating rapidly, very likely due to a change in the flux of oceanic heat to the undersides of the floating ice shelves. The final section on modelling feedbacks from the ocean to climate change identifies limitations and priorities for model development and associated observations. Considering the importance of the oceans to climate change and our limited understanding of climate-related ocean processes, our ability to measure the changes that are taking place are conspicuously inadequate. The chapter highlights the need for a comprehensive, adequately funded and globally extensive ocean observing system to be implemented and sustained as a high priority. Unless feedbacks from the oceans to climate change are adequately included in climate change models, it is possible that the mitigation actions needed to stabilise CO2 and limit temperature rise over the next century will be underestimated.

Changes in ice dynamics along the northern Antarctic Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seehaus, Thorsten; Marinsek, Sebastian; Cook, Alison; Van Wessem, Jan-Melchior; Braun, Matthias

2017-04-01

The climatic conditions along the Antarctic Peninsula have undergone considerable changes during the last 50 years. A period of pronounced air temperature rise, increasing ocean temperatures as well as changes in the precipitation pattern have been reported by various authors. Consequently, the glacial systems showed changes including widespread retreat, surface lowering as well as variations in flow speeds. During the last decades numerous ice shelves along the Antarctic Peninsula retreated, started to break-up or disintegrated completely. The loss of the buttressing effect caused tributary glaciers to accelerate with increasing ice discharge along the Antarctic Peninsula. Quantification of the mass changes is still subject to considerable errors although numbers derived from the different methods are converging. The aim is to study the reaction of glaciers at the northern Antarctic Peninsula to the changing climatic conditions and the readjustments of tributary glaciers to ice shelf disintegration, as well as to better quantify the ice mass loss and its temporal changes. We analysed time series of various satellite sensors (ERS-1/2 SAR, ENVISAT ASAR, RADARSAT-1, ALOS PALSAR, TerraSAR-X/TanDEM-X, ASTER, Landsat) to detect changes in ice dynamics of 74 glacier basins along the northern Antarctic Peninsula (<65°). Intensity feature tracking techniques were applied on data stacks from different SAR satellites over the last 20 years to infer temporal trends in glacier surface velocities. In combination with ice thickness reconstructions and modeled climatic mass balance fields regional imbalances were calculated. Variations in ice front position were mapped based on optical and SAR satellite data sets. Along the west coast of the northern Antarctic Peninsula an increase in flow speeds by 40% between 1992 and 2014 was observed, whereas glaciers on the east side (north of former Prince-Gustav Ice Shelf) showed a strong deceleration. Nearly all former ice shelf tributaries showed similar reactions to ice shelf disintegration, with a significant acceleration and frontal retreat after ice shelf break-up and a subsequent deceleration and front stabilization. In total an ice discharge of 17.93±6.22 Gt/a was estimated for the study region in the period 2010-2014. Regional mass balance estimates indicate nearly balanced mass budgets in the period 1992-1996 and positive imbalances in more recent years (2010-2014), dominated by the clearly positive mass balances along the west coast due to high climatic mass balances. The detailed multi-mission time series analysis of glacier changes supports the interpretation of the ongoing processes in this region and allows multi temporal imbalance estimates.

The Beringian coevolution project: Holistic collections of mammals and associated parasites reveal novel perspectives on evolutionary and environmental change in the North

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cook, Joseph A.; Galbreath, Kurt E.; Campbell, Mariel; Carrière, Susanne; Colella, Jocelyn P.; Dawson, Natalie G.; Dunnum, Jonathan L.; Eckerlin, Ralph P.; Greiman, Stephen E.; Fedorov, Vadim B.; Haas, Genevieve M. S.; Haukisalmi, Voitto; Henttonen, Heikki; Hope, Andrew G.; Jackson, Donavan; Jung, Tom; Koehler, Anson V.; Kinsella, John M.; Krejsa, Dianna; Kutz, Susan J.; Liphardt, Schuyler; MacDonald, Stephen O.; Malaney, Jason L.; Makarikov, Arseny; Martin, Jon; McLean, Bryan S.; Mulders, Robert; Nyamsuren, Batsaikhan; Talbot, Sandra L.; Tkach, Vasyl V.; Tsvetkova, Albina; Toman, Heather M.; Waltari, Eric C.; Whitman, Jackson S.; Hoberg, Eric P.

2017-01-01

The Beringian Coevolution Project (BCP), a field program underway in the high northern latitudes since 1999, has focused on building key scientific infrastructure for integrated specimen-based studies on mammals and their associated parasites. BCP has contributed new insights across temporal and spatial scales into how ancient climate and environmental change have shaped faunas, emphasizing processes of assembly, persistence, and diversification across the vast Beringian region. BCP collections also represent baseline records of biotic diversity from across the northern high latitudes at a time of accelerated environmental change. These specimens and associated data form an unmatched resource for identifying hidden diversity, interpreting past responses to climate oscillations, documenting contemporary conditions, and anticipating outcomes for complex biological systems in a regime of ecological perturbation. Because of its dual focus on hosts and parasites, the BCP record also provides a foundation for comparative analyses that can document the effects of dynamic change on the geographic distribution, transmission dynamics, and emergence of pathogens. By using specific examples from carnivores, shrews, lagomorphs, rodents and their associated parasites, we demonstrate how broad, integrated field collections provide permanent infrastructure that informs policy decisions regarding human impact and the effect of climate change on natural populations.

Changing Patterns of Fungal Toxins in Crops: Challenges for Analysts.

PubMed

Miller, J David

2016-07-01

This short review discusses the need to manage climate-driven expansion of old toxins in new geographic areas (e.g., aflatoxin or fumonisin in corn in historically cooler areas, and ergot where rainfall and cropping patterns have changed). In addition, a renewed consideration of the toxins that can occur in feed sources used in cool-season dairy areas is needed (e.g., silage and distillers dry grains with solubles). A separate issue concerns genetic changes that are occurring in the species that cause Fusarium head blight/Gibberella ear rot. Small differences in climate appear to determine the distribution of the two dominant populations (native to the new world and from Asia). The chemotype that produces deoxynivalenol via the monoacetate at the 3 position results in the accumulation of somewhat more deoxynivalenol than the native population, which involves the monoacetate at the 15 position. There are also genetic changes occurring that have resulted in populations that produce different metabolites. Similarly, an increase in the area where Aspergillus flavus can thrive and the discovery of the sexual stage of this fungus have raised the potential of genetic change accelerated by climate. To address all these issues, new methods and increased availability of reference standards, as well as training and awareness, will be required.

Montreal Protocol: The Gift that Keeps on Giving

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reifsnyder, D. A.

2012-12-01

Unlike many of my contemporaries, I did not begin my career with CFCs, ozone, and the Montreal Protocol. Instead, I began with climate change issue. In October 1989 I became Director of the Department of State's Office of Global Change, after the George H.W. Bush Administration agreed to host the Third Plenary of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) at Georgetown University. Bert Bolin was IPCC Chair, Bill Reilly was EPA Administrator and John Sununu was White House Chief of Staff. I survived those early years and afterward had a long run with the climate change policy - lasting through six administrations. Last year I even chaired the Ad Hoc Group on Long-Term Cooperative Action in Durban at the 17th Conference of the Parties under the UN FCCC. I really plunged into the ozone issue in 2006 when I became the Deputy Assistant Secretary for Environment. By then ozone was hardly ever mentioned, except to recall that the Montreal Protocol was undoubtedly the most successful multilateral environmental agreement ever undertaken - and to contrast it nostalgically with others that have not fared so well - particularly climate. Even worse, ozone was ancient history and most people thought we had solved that problem. Richard Benedict's Ozone Diplomacy had long been a staple of college courses on the global environment but few graduates saw a career in ozone, and it had become difficult to find people in government who were willing to work on it. In early 2007, my staff and I met with colleagues at EPA to brainstorm about the global effort to phase out chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and move to alternatives - hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs). The transition from CFCs was nearing its end but HCFCs, though less potent, were still a problem for the ozone layer. We began to wonder -- could something be done to accelerate the phaseouts of HCFCs? We realized that proposing an acceleration would mean that developed countries would need to go first. Only later would they be followed by developing countries. The question was, could we do it? And if we could, how could we get others developed countries and then developing countries on side? After our internal discussions, State and EPA convened a workshop with U.S. stakeholders from the private sector and the environmental community. To our delight, both groups thought the United States should take the initiative. In retrospect, the winds were favorable - 2007 marked the 25th Anniversary of the Montreal Protocol and many wanted to celebrate it with something significant. The private sector felt that it could meet an accelerated timetable for phasing out HCFCs - the technology was there. It was also clear that money in the Montreal Protocol Multilateral Fund had begun to decline with the developing country phaseout of CFCs and would decline even more steeply unless a new basis were found to continue it. But favorable winds do not always make for a smooth sail - and path to the accelerated phaseouts of 2007 proved challenging. At the time, practically no one thought the effort would succeed. Still, we did succeed. Yet even then it took time to for many to appreciate the significant benefits for the climate system, beyond the benefits to the stratospheric ozone layer. In fact, the continuing story of the Montreal Protocol is one of the gift that keeps on giving.

Dual impacts of climate change: forest migration and turnover through life history.

PubMed

Zhu, Kai; Woodall, Christopher W; Ghosh, Souparno; Gelfand, Alan E; Clark, James S

2014-01-01

Tree species are predicted to track future climate by shifting their geographic distributions, but climate-mediated migrations are not apparent in a recent continental-scale analysis. To better understand the mechanisms of a possible migration lag, we analyzed relative recruitment patterns by comparing juvenile and adult tree abundances in climate space. One would expect relative recruitment to be higher in cold and dry climates as a result of tree migration with juveniles located further poleward than adults. Alternatively, relative recruitment could be higher in warm and wet climates as a result of higher tree population turnover with increased temperature and precipitation. Using the USDA Forest Service's Forest Inventory and Analysis data at regional scales, we jointly modeled juvenile and adult abundance distributions for 65 tree species in climate space of the eastern United States. We directly compared the optimal climate conditions for juveniles and adults, identified the climates where each species has high relative recruitment, and synthesized relative recruitment patterns across species. Results suggest that for 77% and 83% of the tree species, juveniles have higher optimal temperature and optimal precipitation, respectively, than adults. Across species, the relative recruitment pattern is dominated by relatively more abundant juveniles than adults in warm and wet climates. These different abundance-climate responses through life history are consistent with faster population turnover and inconsistent with the geographic trend of large-scale tree migration. Taken together, this juvenile-adult analysis suggests that tree species might respond to climate change by having faster turnover as dynamics accelerate with longer growing seasons and higher temperatures, before there is evidence of poleward migration at biogeographic scales.

Winter climate change effects on soil C and N cycles in urban grasslands.

PubMed

Durán, Jorge; Rodríguez, Alexandra; Morse, Jennifer L; Groffman, Peter M

2013-09-01

Despite growing recognition of the role that cities have in global biogeochemical cycles, urban systems are among the least understood of all ecosystems. Urban grasslands are expanding rapidly along with urbanization, which is expected to increase at unprecedented rates in upcoming decades. The large and increasing area of urban grasslands and their impact on water and air quality justify the need for a better understanding of their biogeochemical cycles. There is also great uncertainty about the effect that climate change, especially changes in winter snow cover, will have on nutrient cycles in urban grasslands. We aimed to evaluate how reduced snow accumulation directly affects winter soil frost dynamics, and indirectly greenhouse gas fluxes and the processing of carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) during the subsequent growing season in northern urban grasslands. Both artificial and natural snow reduction increased winter soil frost, affecting winter microbial C and N processing, accelerating C and N cycles and increasing soil : atmosphere greenhouse gas exchange during the subsequent growing season. With lower snow accumulations that are predicted with climate change, we found decreases in N retention in these ecosystems, and increases in N2 O and CO2 flux to the atmosphere, significantly increasing the global warming potential of urban grasslands. Our results suggest that the environmental impacts of these rapidly expanding ecosystems are likely to increase as climate change brings milder winters and more extensive soil frost. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Historical and future perspectives of global soil carbon response to climate and land-use changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eglin, T.; Ciais, P.; Piao, S. L.; Barre, P.; Bellassen, V.; Cadule, P.; Chenu, C.; Gasser, T.; Koven, C.; Reichstein, M.; Smith, P.

2010-11-01

ABSTRACT In this paper, we attempt to analyse the respective influences of land-use and climate changes on the global and regional balances of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks. Two time periods are analysed: the historical period 1901-2000 and the period 2000-2100. The historical period is analysed using a synthesis of published data as well as new global and regional model simulations, and the future is analysed using models only. Historical land cover changes have resulted globally in SOC release into the atmosphere. This human induced SOC decrease was nearly balanced by the net SOC increase due to higher CO2 and rainfall. Mechanization of agriculture after the 1950s has accelerated SOC losses in croplands, whereas development of carbon-sequestering practices over the past decades may have limited SOC loss from arable soils. In some regions (Europe, China and USA), croplands are currently estimated to be either a small C sink or a small source, but not a large source of CO2 to the atmosphere. In the future, according to terrestrial biosphere and climate models projections, both climate and land cover changes might cause a net SOC loss, particularly in tropical regions. The timing, magnitude, and regional distribution of future SOC changes are all highly uncertain. Reducing this uncertainty requires improving future anthropogenic CO2 emissions and land-use scenarios and better understanding of biogeochemical processes that control SOC turnover, for both managed and un-managed ecosystems.

Will Arctic ground squirrels impede or accelerate climate-induced vegetation changes to the Arctic tundra?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dalton, J.; Flower, C. E.; Brown, J.; Gonzalez-Meler, M. A.; Whelan, C.

2014-12-01

Considerable attention has been given to the climate feedbacks associated with predicted vegetation shifts in the Arctic tundra in response to global environmental change. However, little is known regarding the extent to which consumers can facilitate or respond to shrub expansion. Arctic ground squirrels, the largest and most northern ground squirrel, are abundant and widespread throughout the North American tundra. Their broad diet of seeds, flowers, herbage, bird's eggs and meat speaks to the need to breed, feed, and fatten in a span of some 12-16 weeks that separate their 8-9 month bouts of hibernation with the potential consequence to impact ecosystem dynamics. Therefore Arctic ground squirrels are a good candidate to evaluate whether consumers are mere responders (bottom-up effects) or drivers (top-down) of the observed and predicted vegetation changes. As a start towards this question, we measured the foraging intensity (giving-up densities) of Arctic ground squirrels in experimental food patches within which the squirrels experience diminishing returns as they seek the raisins and peanuts that we provided at the Toolik Lake field station in northern Alaska. If the squirrels show their highest feeding intensity in the shrubs, they may impede vegetation shifts by slowing the establishment and expansion of shrubs in the tundra. Conversely, if they show their lowest feeding intensity within shrub dominated areas, they may accelerate vegetation shifts. We found neither. Feeding intensity varied most among transects and times of day, and least along a tundra-to-shrub vegetation gradient. This suggests that the impacts of squirrels will be heterogeneous - in places responders and in others drivers. We should not be surprised then to see patches of accelerated and impeded vegetation changes in the tundra ecosystem. Some of these patterns may be predictable from the foraging behavior of Arctic ground squirrels.

Advancing Research Methods to Detect Impact of Climate Change on Health in Grand'Anse, Haiti

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barnhart, S.; Coq, R. N.; Frederic, R.; DeRiel, E.; Camara, H.; Barnhart, K. R.

2013-12-01

Haiti is considered particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change, but directly linking climate change to health effects is limited by the lack of robust data and the multiple determinants of health. Worsening storms and rising temperatures in this rugged country with high poverty is likely to adversely affect economic activity, population growth and other determinants of health. For the past two years, the Univ. of Washington has supported the public hospital in the department of Grand'Anse. Grand'Anse, a relatively contained region in SW Haiti with an area of 11,912 km2, is predominantly rural with a population of 350,000 and is bounded to the south by peaks up to 2,347 m. Grand'Anse would serve as an excellent site to assess the interface between climate change and health. The Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) shows health status is low relative to other countries. Estimates of climate change for Jeremie, the largest city in Grand'Anse, predict the mean monthly temperature will increase from 26.1 to 27.3 oC while mean monthly rainfall will decrease from 80.5 to 73.5 mm over the next 60 years. The potential impact of these changes ranges from threatening food security to greater mortality. Use of available secondary data such as indicators of climate change and DHS health status are not likely to offer sufficient resolution to detect positive or negative impacts of climate change on health. How might a mixed methods approach incorporating secondary data and quantitative and qualitative survey data on climate, economic activity, health and determinants of health address the hypothesis: Climate change does not adversely affect health? For example, in Haiti most women deliver at home. Maternal mortality is high at 350 deaths/100,000 deliveries. This compares to deliveries in facilities where the median rate is less than 100/100,000. Thus, maternal mortality is closely linked to access to health care in this rugged mountainous country. Climate change might result in worsening tropical storms that impede access due to the poor condition of footpaths and thus adversely affect maternal mortality. Additional factors such as deforestation and associated accelerated rainwater runoff may further worsen conditions. The linkage between maternal mortality and climate change will not be detected unless more robust methods are used. We propose using a mixed methods approach that combines use of secondary climate and health data (e.g. Landsat, stream flow, precipitation) with a stratified spatial sampling strategy across this complex land mass coupled with direct observation and qualitative methods using key informant interviews to probe for root causes of changes in health outcomes such as weather, deforestation, food and economic security. This mixed methods approach can be used for cross-sectional, retrospective and longitudinal studies linking the impact of climatological factors and important determinants of health such as economic activity. We propose that the impact of climate change on health will be best studied by mixed method approaches and that reliance on secondary data alone risks missing important associations between changes in climate and health.

Disturbance Hydrology in the Tropics: The Galápagos Islands as a Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riveros-Iregui, D. A.; Schmitt, S.; Percy, M.; Hu, J.; Singha, K.; Mirus, B. B.

2015-12-01

Tropical Latin America has shown the largest acceleration in land use change in recent decades. It is well established that changes in vegetation cover can lead to changes in water demand, evapotranspiration, and eventually soil textural characteristics. Given the projected changes in the intensity and distribution of rainfall in tropical regions in the coming decades, it is critical to characterize how changes in land use change across different climatic zones may fundamentally reshape water availability and storage, soil composition and associated hydraulic properties, and overall watershed hydrologic behavior. This study evaluates the role of anthropogenic disturbance on hydrological processes across different climatic zones in the tropics. We focus specifically on San Cristobal Island, the second most populated island of the iconic Galapagos archipelago, which is currently undergoing severe anthropogenic transformation. The island contains a spectrum of climates, ranging from very humid to arid, and has seen a dramatic increase in tourism and an increase in the permanent population of greater than 1000% in the last 40 years. Over 70% of the landscape of San Cristobal has been altered by land use change and invasive species. Our study identifies the complex interactions among hydrological, geological, economic, and social variables that tropical island systems will face in the years ahead, and the role and effects of a dynamic hydrologic cycle across multiple scales.

Assessing the consequences of global change for forest disturbance from herbivores and pathogens.

PubMed

Ayres, M P; Lombardero, M J

2000-11-15

Herbivores and pathogens impact the species composition, ecosystem function, and socioeconomic value of forests. Herbivores and pathogens are an integral part of forests, but sometimes produce undesirable effects and a degradation of forest resources. In the United States, a few species of forest pests routinely have significant impacts on up to 20 million ha of forest with economic costs that probably exceed $1 billion/year. Climatic change could alter patterns of disturbance from herbivores and pathogens through: (1) direct effects on the development and survival of herbivores and pathogens; (2) physiological changes in tree defenses; and (3) indirect effects from changes in the abundance of natural enemies (e.g. parasitoids of insect herbivores), mutualists (e.g. insect vectors of tree pathogens), and competitors. Because of their short life cycles, mobility, reproductive potential, and physiological sensitivity to temperature, even modest climate change will have rapid impacts on the distribution and abundance of many forest insects and pathogens. We identify 32 syndromes of biotic disturbance in North American forests that should be carefully evaluated for their responses to climate change: 15 insect herbivores, browsing mammals; 12 pathogens; 1 plant parasite; and 3 undiagnosed patterns of forest decline. It is probable that climatic effects on some herbivores and pathogens will impact on biodiversity, recreation, property value, forest industry, and even water quality. Some scenarios are beneficial (e.g. decreased snow cover may increase winter mortality of some insect pests), but many are detrimental (e.g. warming tends to accelerate insect development rate and facilitate range expansions of pests and climate change tends to produce a mismatch between mature trees and their environment, which can increase vulnerability to herbivores and pathogens). Changes in forest disturbance can produce feedback to climate through affects on water and carbon flux in forest ecosystems; one alarming scenario is that climate warming may increase insect outbreaks in boreal forests, which would tend to increase forest fires and exacerbate further climate warming by releasing carbon stores from boreal ecosystems. We suggest a list of research priorities that will allow us to refine these risk assessments and adopt forest management strategies that anticipate changes in biotic disturbance regimes and mitigate the ecological, social, and economic risks.

Impacts of climate change on soil erosion in Portuguese watersheds with contrasting Mediterranean climates and agroforestry practices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nunes, J. P.; Lima, J. C.; Bernard-Jannin, L.; Veiga, S.; Rodríguez-Blanco, M. L.; Sampaio, E.; Batista, D. P.; Zhang, R.; Rial-Rivas, M. E.; Moreira, M.; Santos, J. M.; Keizer, J. J.; Corte-Real, J.

2012-04-01

Climate change in Mediterranean regions could lead to higher winter rainfall intensity and, due to higher climatic aridity, lower vegetation cover. This could lead to increasing soil erosion rates, accelerating ongoing soil degradation and desertification processes. Adaptation to these scenarios would have costs and benefits associated with soil protection but also agroforestry production and water usage. This presentation will cover project ERLAND, which is studying these impacts for two headwater catchments (<1000 ha) in Portugal, located in distinct climatic conditions within the Mediterranean climate area, and their land-use practices are adapted to these conditions. The Macieira de Alcoba catchment in northern Portugal has a wet Mediterranean climate (1800 mm/yr, but with a dry summer season). The high rainfall allows the plantation of fast growing tree species (pine and eucalypt) in the higher slopes, and the irrigation of corn in the lower slopes. Forest fires are a recurring problem, linked with the high biomass growth and the occurrence of a dry season. Potential impacts of climate change include less favorable conditions for eucalypt growth, higher incidence of wildfires, and less available water for summer irrigation, all of which could lead to lower vegetation cover. The Guadalupe catchment in southern Portugal has a dry Mediterranean climate (700 mm/yr, falling mostly in winter). The land-use is montado, an association between sclerophyllous oaks (cork and holm oaks) and annual herbaceous plans (winter wheat or pasture). The region suffers occasional severe droughts; climate change has the potential to increase the frequency and severity of these droughts, leading to lower vegetation cover and, potentially, limiting the conditions for cork and holm oak growth. Each catchment has been instrumented with erosion measurement plots and flow and turbidity measurements at the outlet, together with surveys of vegetation and soil properties; measurements in Macieira began in 2010 and in Guadalupe they began in 2011. These datasets will be used to parameterize, calibrate and validate the SWAT ecohydrological model, in order to ensure the appropriate simulation of the most important hydrological, vegetation growth and erosion processes which could be impacted upon by climate change. The model will, in turn, be the main tool to study future climate and land-use scenarios. The presentation will focus on the data collected so far, the modeling structure, and preliminary results coming for the work.

Increased topsoil carbon stock across China's forests.

PubMed

Yang, Yuanhe; Li, Pin; Ding, Jinzhi; Zhao, Xia; Ma, Wenhong; Ji, Chengjun; Fang, Jingyun

2014-08-01

Biomass carbon accumulation in forest ecosystems is a widespread phenomenon at both regional and global scales. However, as coupled carbon-climate models predicted, a positive feedback could be triggered if accelerated soil carbon decomposition offsets enhanced vegetation growth under a warming climate. It is thus crucial to reveal whether and how soil carbon stock in forest ecosystems has changed over recent decades. However, large-scale changes in soil carbon stock across forest ecosystems have not yet been carefully examined at both regional and global scales, which have been widely perceived as a big bottleneck in untangling carbon-climate feedback. Using newly developed database and sophisticated data mining approach, here we evaluated temporal changes in topsoil carbon stock across major forest ecosystem in China and analysed potential drivers in soil carbon dynamics over broad geographical scale. Our results indicated that topsoil carbon stock increased significantly within all of five major forest types during the period of 1980s-2000s, with an overall rate of 20.0 g C m(-2) yr(-1) (95% confidence interval, 14.1-25.5). The magnitude of soil carbon accumulation across coniferous forests and coniferous/broadleaved mixed forests exhibited meaningful increases with both mean annual temperature and precipitation. Moreover, soil carbon dynamics across these forest ecosystems were positively associated with clay content, with a larger amount of SOC accumulation occurring in fine-textured soils. In contrast, changes in soil carbon stock across broadleaved forests were insensitive to either climatic or edaphic variables. Overall, these results suggest that soil carbon accumulation does not counteract vegetation carbon sequestration across China's forest ecosystems. The combination of soil carbon accumulation and vegetation carbon sequestration triggers a negative feedback to climate warming, rather than a positive feedback predicted by coupled carbon-climate models. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

High-resolution ensemble projections of near-term regional climate over the continental United States

DOE PAGES

Ashfaq, Moetasim; Rastogi, Deeksha; Mei, Rui; ...

2016-09-01

We present high-resolution near-term ensemble projections of hydro-climatic changes over the contiguous U.S. using a regional climate model (RegCM4) that dynamically downscales 11 Global Climate Models from the 5th phase of Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project at 18km horizontal grid spacing. All model integrations span 41 years in the historical period (1965 – 2005) and 41 years in the near-term future period (2010 – 2050) under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and cover a domain that includes the contiguous U.S. and parts of Canada and Mexico. Should emissions continue to rise, surface temperatures in every region within the U.S. will reach amore » new climate norm well before mid 21st century regardless of the magnitudes of regional warming. Significant warming will likely intensify the regional hydrological cycle through the acceleration of the historical trends in cold, warm and wet extremes. The future temperature response will be partly regulated by changes in snow hydrology over the regions that historically receive a major portion of cold season precipitation in the form of snow. Our results indicate the existence of the Clausius-Clapeyron scaling at regional scales where per degree centigrade rise in surface temperature will lead to a 7.4% increase in precipitation from extremes. More importantly, both winter (snow) and summer (liquid) extremes are projected to increase across the U.S. These changes in precipitation characteristics will be driven by a shift towards shorter and wetter seasons. Altogether, projected changes in the regional hydro-climate can have substantial impacts on the natural and human systems across the U.S.« less

Losses of leaf area owing to herbivory and early senescence in three tree species along a winter temperature gradient

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

González-Zurdo, P.; Escudero, A.; Nuñez, R.; Mediavilla, S.

2016-11-01

In temperate climates, evergreen leaves have to survive throughout low temperature winter periods. Freezing and chilling injuries can lead to accelerated senescence of part of the leaf surface, which contributes to a reduction of the lifespan of the photosynthetic machinery and of leaf lifetime carbon gain. Low temperatures are also associated with changes in foliar chemistry and morphology that affect consumption by herbivores. Therefore, the severity of foliar area losses caused by accelerated senescence and herbivory can change along winter temperature gradients. The aim of this study is to analyse such responses in the leaves of three evergreen species ( Quercus ilex, Q. suber and Pinus pinaster) along a climatic gradient. The leaves of all three species presented increased leaf mass per area (LMA) and higher concentrations of structural carbohydrates in cooler areas. Only the two oak species showed visible symptoms of damage caused by herbivory, this being less intense at the coldest sites. The leaves of all three species presented chlorotic and necrotic spots that increased in size with leaf age. The foliar surface affected by chlorosis and necrosis was larger at the sites with the coldest winters. Therefore, the effects of the winter cold on the lifespan of the photosynthetic machinery were contradictory: losses of leaf area due to accelerated senescence increased, but there was a decrease in losses caused by herbivory. The final consequences for carbon assimilation strongly depend on the exact timing of the appearance of the damage resulting from low temperature and grazing by herbivores.

Investigating the climate impacts of urbanization and the potential for cool roofs to counter future climate change in Southern California

DOE PAGES

Vahmani, P.; Sun, F.; Hall, A.; ...

2016-12-15

The climate warming effects of accelerated urbanization along with projected global climate change raise an urgent need for sustainable mitigation and adaptation strategies to cool urban climates. Our modeling results show that historical urbanization in the Los Angeles and San Diego metropolitan areas has increased daytime urban air temperature by 1.3 °C, in part due to a weakening of the onshore sea breeze circulation. We find that metropolis-wide adoption of cool roofs can meaningfully offset this daytime warming, reducing temperatures by 0.9 °C relative to a case without cool roofs. Residential cool roofs were responsible for 67% of the cooling.more » Nocturnal temperature increases of 3.1 °C from urbanization were larger than daytime warming, while nocturnal temperature reductions from cool roofs of 0.5 °C were weaker than corresponding daytime reductions. We further show that cool roof deployment could partially counter the local impacts of global climate change in the Los Angeles metropolitan area. Assuming a scenario in which there are dramatic decreases in greenhouse gas emissions in the 21st century (RCP2.6), mid- and end-of-century temperature increases from global change relative to current climate are similarly reduced by cool roofs from 1.4 °C to 0.6 °C. Assuming a scenario with continued emissions increases throughout the century (RCP8.5), mid-century warming is significantly reduced by cool roofs from 2.0 °C to 1.0 °C. The end-century warming, however, is significantly offset only in small localized areas containing mostly industrial/commercial buildings where cool roofs with the highest albedo are adopted. We conclude that metropolis-wide adoption of cool roofs can play an important role in mitigating the urban heat island effect, and offsetting near-term local warming from global climate change. Global-scale reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are the only way of avoiding long-term warming, however. We further suggest that both climate mitigation and adaptation can be pursued simultaneously using 'cool photovoltaics'.« less

Investigating the climate impacts of urbanization and the potential for cool roofs to counter future climate change in Southern California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vahmani, P.; Sun, F.; Hall, A.; Ban-Weiss, G.

2016-12-01

The climate warming effects of accelerated urbanization along with projected global climate change raise an urgent need for sustainable mitigation and adaptation strategies to cool urban climates. Our modeling results show that historical urbanization in the Los Angeles and San Diego metropolitan areas has increased daytime urban air temperature by 1.3 °C, in part due to a weakening of the onshore sea breeze circulation. We find that metropolis-wide adoption of cool roofs can meaningfully offset this daytime warming, reducing temperatures by 0.9 °C relative to a case without cool roofs. Residential cool roofs were responsible for 67% of the cooling. Nocturnal temperature increases of 3.1 °C from urbanization were larger than daytime warming, while nocturnal temperature reductions from cool roofs of 0.5 °C were weaker than corresponding daytime reductions. We further show that cool roof deployment could partially counter the local impacts of global climate change in the Los Angeles metropolitan area. Assuming a scenario in which there are dramatic decreases in greenhouse gas emissions in the 21st century (RCP2.6), mid- and end-of-century temperature increases from global change relative to current climate are similarly reduced by cool roofs from 1.4 °C to 0.6 °C. Assuming a scenario with continued emissions increases throughout the century (RCP8.5), mid-century warming is significantly reduced by cool roofs from 2.0 °C to 1.0 °C. The end-century warming, however, is significantly offset only in small localized areas containing mostly industrial/commercial buildings where cool roofs with the highest albedo are adopted. We conclude that metropolis-wide adoption of cool roofs can play an important role in mitigating the urban heat island effect, and offsetting near-term local warming from global climate change. Global-scale reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are the only way of avoiding long-term warming, however. We further suggest that both climate mitigation and adaptation can be pursued simultaneously using ‘cool photovoltaics’.

Investigating the climate impacts of urbanization and the potential for cool roofs to counter future climate change in Southern California

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vahmani, P.; Sun, F.; Hall, A.

The climate warming effects of accelerated urbanization along with projected global climate change raise an urgent need for sustainable mitigation and adaptation strategies to cool urban climates. Our modeling results show that historical urbanization in the Los Angeles and San Diego metropolitan areas has increased daytime urban air temperature by 1.3 °C, in part due to a weakening of the onshore sea breeze circulation. We find that metropolis-wide adoption of cool roofs can meaningfully offset this daytime warming, reducing temperatures by 0.9 °C relative to a case without cool roofs. Residential cool roofs were responsible for 67% of the cooling.more » Nocturnal temperature increases of 3.1 °C from urbanization were larger than daytime warming, while nocturnal temperature reductions from cool roofs of 0.5 °C were weaker than corresponding daytime reductions. We further show that cool roof deployment could partially counter the local impacts of global climate change in the Los Angeles metropolitan area. Assuming a scenario in which there are dramatic decreases in greenhouse gas emissions in the 21st century (RCP2.6), mid- and end-of-century temperature increases from global change relative to current climate are similarly reduced by cool roofs from 1.4 °C to 0.6 °C. Assuming a scenario with continued emissions increases throughout the century (RCP8.5), mid-century warming is significantly reduced by cool roofs from 2.0 °C to 1.0 °C. The end-century warming, however, is significantly offset only in small localized areas containing mostly industrial/commercial buildings where cool roofs with the highest albedo are adopted. We conclude that metropolis-wide adoption of cool roofs can play an important role in mitigating the urban heat island effect, and offsetting near-term local warming from global climate change. Global-scale reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are the only way of avoiding long-term warming, however. We further suggest that both climate mitigation and adaptation can be pursued simultaneously using 'cool photovoltaics'.« less

Influence of ecohydrologic feedbacks from simulated crop growth on integrated regional hydrologic simulations under climate scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Walsum, P. E. V.; Supit, I.

2012-06-01

Hydrologic climate change modelling is hampered by climate-dependent model parameterizations. To reduce this dependency, we extended the regional hydrologic modelling framework SIMGRO to host a two-way coupling between the soil moisture model MetaSWAP and the crop growth simulation model WOFOST, accounting for ecohydrologic feedbacks in terms of radiation fraction that reaches the soil, crop coefficient, interception fraction of rainfall, interception storage capacity, and root zone depth. Except for the last, these feedbacks are dependent on the leaf area index (LAI). The influence of regional groundwater on crop growth is included via a coupling to MODFLOW. Two versions of the MetaSWAP-WOFOST coupling were set up: one with exogenous vegetation parameters, the "static" model, and one with endogenous crop growth simulation, the "dynamic" model. Parameterization of the static and dynamic models ensured that for the current climate the simulated long-term averages of actual evapotranspiration are the same for both models. Simulations were made for two climate scenarios and two crops: grass and potato. In the dynamic model, higher temperatures in a warm year under the current climate resulted in accelerated crop development, and in the case of potato a shorter growing season, thus partly avoiding the late summer heat. The static model has a higher potential transpiration; depending on the available soil moisture, this translates to a higher actual transpiration. This difference between static and dynamic models is enlarged by climate change in combination with higher CO2 concentrations. Including the dynamic crop simulation gives for potato (and other annual arable land crops) systematically higher effects on the predicted recharge change due to climate change. Crop yields from soils with poor water retention capacities strongly depend on capillary rise if moisture supply from other sources is limited. Thus, including a crop simulation model in an integrated hydrologic simulation provides a valuable addition for hydrologic modelling as well as for crop modelling.

GPS Measurements at Vandenberg, AFB

DTIC Science & Technology

1993-02-22

friorov, S A Ahic Aia.. SSSR DoAf US9. Ill𔃺 1113 I Iughison. J I (ec O Clmate chirie The 07CC scientific Assessment (Cambridge ni~v Pressý 16 snez. MC... Change or Climate (Wolo~ng GrOAI Viii eHefta Comm’ents 14 Timerev A A & Egorov S A A4lereotof G&droi lo 7 50-56 e91e .r condied 13 A A TsonoS...Complex. might easily be recovering from the mainshock accelerations An examination of the station displacements indicates that Comparing the changing

Microbe-driven turnover offsets mineral-mediated storage of soil carbon under elevated CO2

Treesearch

Benjamin N. Sulman; Richard P. Phillips; A. Christopher Oishi; Elena Shevliakova; Stephen W. Pacala

2014-01-01

The sensitivity of soil organic carbon (SOC) to changing environmental conditions represents a critical uncertainty in coupled carbon cycle–climate models1.Much of this uncertainty arises from our limited understanding of the extent to which root–microbe interactions induce SOC losses (through accelerated decomposition or ‘priming’2) or indirectly promote SOC gains (...

Accelerating Climate and Weather Simulations through Hybrid Computing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhou, Shujia; Cruz, Carlos; Duffy, Daniel; Tucker, Robert; Purcell, Mark

2011-01-01

Unconventional multi- and many-core processors (e.g. IBM (R) Cell B.E.(TM) and NVIDIA (R) GPU) have emerged as effective accelerators in trial climate and weather simulations. Yet these climate and weather models typically run on parallel computers with conventional processors (e.g. Intel, AMD, and IBM) using Message Passing Interface. To address challenges involved in efficiently and easily connecting accelerators to parallel computers, we investigated using IBM's Dynamic Application Virtualization (TM) (IBM DAV) software in a prototype hybrid computing system with representative climate and weather model components. The hybrid system comprises two Intel blades and two IBM QS22 Cell B.E. blades, connected with both InfiniBand(R) (IB) and 1-Gigabit Ethernet. The system significantly accelerates a solar radiation model component by offloading compute-intensive calculations to the Cell blades. Systematic tests show that IBM DAV can seamlessly offload compute-intensive calculations from Intel blades to Cell B.E. blades in a scalable, load-balanced manner. However, noticeable communication overhead was observed, mainly due to IP over the IB protocol. Full utilization of IB Sockets Direct Protocol and the lower latency production version of IBM DAV will reduce this overhead.

Symbiotic immuno-suppression: is disease susceptibility the price of bleaching resistance?

PubMed

Merselis, Daniel G; Lirman, Diego; Rodriguez-Lanetty, Mauricio

2018-01-01

Accelerating anthropogenic climate change threatens to destroy coral reefs worldwide through the processes of bleaching and disease. These major contributors to coral mortality are both closely linked with thermal stress intensified by anthropogenic climate change. Disease outbreaks typically follow bleaching events, but a direct positive linkage between bleaching and disease has been debated. By tracking 152 individual coral ramets through the 2014 mass bleaching in a South Florida coral restoration nursery, we revealed a highly significant negative correlation between bleaching and disease in the Caribbean staghorn coral, Acropora cervicornis . To explain these results, we propose a mechanism for transient immunological protection through coral bleaching: removal of Symbiodinium during bleaching may also temporarily eliminate suppressive symbiont modulation of host immunological function. We contextualize this hypothesis within an ecological perspective in order to generate testable predictions for future investigation.

Carbon emissions from U.S. ethylene production under climate change policies.

PubMed

Ruth, Matthias; Amato, Anthony D; Davidsdottir, Brynhildur

2002-01-15

This paper presents the results from a dynamic computer model of U.S. ethylene production, designed to explore implications of alternative climate change policies for the industry's energy use and carbon emissions profiles. The model applies to the aggregate ethylene industry but distinguishes its main cracker types, fuels used as feedstocks and for process energy, as well as the industry's capital vintage structure and vintage-specific efficiencies. Results indicate that policies which increase the cost of carbon of process energy-such as carbon taxes or carbon permit systems-are relatively blunt instruments for cutting carbon emissions from ethylene production. In contrast, policies directly affecting the relative efficiencies of new to old capital-such as R&D stimuli or accelerated depreciation schedules-may be more effective in leveraging the industry's potential for carbon emissions reductions.

Environmental Adaptations, Ecological Filtering, and Dispersal Central to Insect Invasions.

PubMed

Renault, David; Laparie, Mathieu; McCauley, Shannon J; Bonte, Dries

2018-01-07

Insect invasions, the establishment and spread of nonnative insects in new regions, can have extensive economic and environmental consequences. Increased global connectivity accelerates rates of introductions, while climate change may decrease the barriers to invader species' spread. We follow an individual-level insect- and arachnid-centered perspective to assess how the process of invasion is influenced by phenotypic heterogeneity associated with dispersal and stress resistance, and their coupling, across the multiple steps of the invasion process. We also provide an overview and synthesis on the importance of environmental filters during the entire invasion process for the facilitation or inhibition of invasive insect population spread. Finally, we highlight important research gaps and the relevance and applicability of ongoing natural range expansions in the context of climate change to gain essential mechanistic insights into insect invasions.

Symbiotic immuno-suppression: is disease susceptibility the price of bleaching resistance?

PubMed Central

Merselis, Daniel G.; Lirman, Diego

2018-01-01

Accelerating anthropogenic climate change threatens to destroy coral reefs worldwide through the processes of bleaching and disease. These major contributors to coral mortality are both closely linked with thermal stress intensified by anthropogenic climate change. Disease outbreaks typically follow bleaching events, but a direct positive linkage between bleaching and disease has been debated. By tracking 152 individual coral ramets through the 2014 mass bleaching in a South Florida coral restoration nursery, we revealed a highly significant negative correlation between bleaching and disease in the Caribbean staghorn coral, Acropora cervicornis. To explain these results, we propose a mechanism for transient immunological protection through coral bleaching: removal of Symbiodinium during bleaching may also temporarily eliminate suppressive symbiont modulation of host immunological function. We contextualize this hypothesis within an ecological perspective in order to generate testable predictions for future investigation. PMID:29682405

Recent acceleration of biomass burning and carbon losses in Alaskan forests and peatlands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Turetsky, M.R.; Kane, E.S.; Harden, J.W.; Ottmar, R.D.; Manies, K.L.; Hoy, E.; Kasischke, E.S.

2011-01-01

Climate change has increased the area affected by forest fires each year in boreal North America. Increases in burned area and fire frequency are expected to stimulate boreal carbon losses. However, the impact of wildfires on carbon emissions is also affected by the severity of burning. How climate change influences the severity of biomass burning has proved difficult to assess. Here, we examined the depth of ground-layer combustion in 178 sites dominated by black spruce in Alaska, using data collected from 31 fire events between 1983 and 2005. We show that the depth of burning increased as the fire season progressed when the annual area burned was small. However, deep burning occurred throughout the fire season when the annual area burned was large. Depth of burning increased late in the fire season in upland forests, but not in peatland and permafrost sites. Simulations of wildfire-induced carbon losses from Alaskan black spruce stands over the past 60 years suggest that ground-layer combustion has accelerated regional carbon losses over the past decade, owing to increases in burn area and late-season burning. As a result, soils in these black spruce stands have become a net source of carbon to the atmosphere, with carbon emissions far exceeding decadal uptake.

Hotspot of accelerated sea-level rise on the Atlantic coast of North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sallenger,, Asbury H.; Doran, Kara S.; Howd, Peter A.

2012-01-01

Climate warming does not force sea-level rise (SLR) at the same rate everywhere. Rather, there are spatial variations of SLR superimposed on a global average rise. These variations are forced by dynamic processes, arising from circulation and variations in temperature and/or salinity, and by static equilibrium processes, arising from mass redistributions changing gravity and the Earth's rotation and shape. These sea-level variations form unique spatial patterns, yet there are very few observations verifying predicted patterns or fingerprints. Here, we present evidence of recently accelerated SLR in a unique 1,000-km-long hotspot on the highly populated North American Atlantic coast north of Cape Hatteras and show that it is consistent with a modelled fingerprint of dynamic SLR. Between 1950–1979 and 1980–2009, SLR rate increases in this northeast hotspot were ~ 3–4 times higher than the global average. Modelled dynamic plus steric SLR by 2100 at New York City ranges with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenario from 36 to 51 cm (ref. 3); lower emission scenarios project 24–36 cm (ref. 7). Extrapolations from data herein range from 20 to 29 cm. SLR superimposed on storm surge, wave run-up and set-up will increase the vulnerability of coastal cities to flooding, and beaches and wetlands to deterioration.

New constraints on the deglaciation chronology of the southeastern margin of the Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Levy, L.; Larsen, N. K.; Kjaer, K. H.; Bjork, A. A.; Kjeldsen, K. K.; Funder, S.; Kelly, M. A.; Howley, J. A.; Zimmerman, S. R. H.

2015-12-01

The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) is responding rapidly to climate change. Marine terminating outlet glaciers that drain the GrIS have responded especially sensitively to present-day climate change by accelerating, thinning and retreating. In southeastern Greenland several outlet glaciers are undergoing rapid changes in mass balance and ice dynamics. To improve our understanding of the future, long-term response of these marine-terminating outlet glaciers to climate change, we focus on the response of three outlet glaciers to climate change since the Last Glacial Maximum. The timing and rates of late-glacial and early Holocene deglaciation of the southeastern sector of the GrIS are relatively unconstrained due to the inaccessibility of the region. Using a helicopter and a sailboat, we collected samples for 10Be surface exposure dating from three fjords in southeastern Greenland: Skjoldungen (63.4N), Uvtorsiutit (62.7N), and Lindenow (60.6N). These fjords drain marine terminating glaciers of the GrIS. Here we present 18 new 10Be ages from ~50 km long transects along these fjords that mark the timing of deglaciation from the outer coast inland to the present-day GrIS margin. Together with previously constrained deglaciation chronologies from Bernstorffs, Sermilik, and Kangerdlussuaq fjords in southeastern Greenland, these new chronologies offer insight into the late-glacial and early Holocene dynamics of the southeastern GrIS outlet glaciers. We compare the timing and rate of deglaciation in southeastern Greenland to climate records from the region to examine the mechanisms that drove deglaciation during late-glacial and early Holocene time. These new 10Be ages provide a longer-term perspective of marine terminating outlet glacier fluctuations in southeastern Greenland and can be used to model the ice sheet's response to late-glacial and early Holocene climate changes.

Climatic Redistribution of Canada's Water Resources (CROCWR): An analysis of spatial and temporal hydrological trends and patterns in western Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bawden, A. J.; Burn, D. H.; Prowse, T. D.

2012-12-01

Climate variability and change can have profound impacts on the hydrologic regime of a watershed. These effects are likely to be especially severe in regions particularly sensitive to changes in climate, such as the Canadian north, or when there are other stresses on the hydrologic regime, such as may occur when there are large withdrawals from, or land-use changes within, a watershed. A recent report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) stressed that future climate is likely to accelerate the hydrologic cycle and hence may affect water security in certain locations. For some regions, this will mean enhanced access to water resources, but because the effects will not be spatially uniform, other regions will experience reduced access. Understanding these patterns is critical for water managers and government agencies in western Canada - an area of highly contrasting hydroclimatic regimes and overlapping water-use and jurisdictional borders - as adapting to climate change may require reconsideration of inter-regional transfers and revised allocation of water resources to competing industrial sectors, including agriculture, hydroelectric production, and oil and gas. This research involves the detection and examination of spatial and temporal streamflow trends in western Canadian rivers as a response to changing climatic factors, including temperature, precipitation, snowmelt, and the synoptic patterns controlling these drivers. The study area, known as the CROCWR region, extends from the Pacific coast of British Columbia as far east as the Saskatchewan-Manitoba border and from the Canada-United States international border through a large portion of the Northwest Territories. This analysis examines hydrologic trends in monthly and annual streamflow for a collection of 34 hydrometric gauging stations believed to adequately represent the overall effects of climate variability and change on flows in western Canada by means of the Mann-Kendall non-parametric trend test. Large-scale spatial patterns are determined through examination of trends and contrasts between upper and lower reaches of individual sub-basins, as well as via analysis of streamflow redistributions within the CROCWR region as an entirety (i.e. north, south, east and/or west-moving patterns). Results are used to predict future implications of hydroclimatic variability and change on western Canada's water resources and recommend measures to be taken by water managers in response to these changes. This research is part of a larger hydroclimatic study that includes an analysis of the climatic drivers contributing to shifting flow regimes in western Canada as well as a study of the controlling synoptic patterns and teleconnections associated with changes in these driving forces.

Regional signatures of plant response to drought and elevated temperature across a desert ecosystem

USGS Publications Warehouse

Munson, Seth M.; Muldavin, Esteban H.; Belnap, Jayne; Peters, Debra P.C.; Anderson, John P.; Reiser, M. Hildegard; Gallo, Kirsten; Melgoza-Castillo, Alicia; Herrick, Jeffrey E.; Christiansen, Tim A.

2013-01-01

The performance of many desert plant species in North America may decline with the warmer and drier conditions predicted by climate change models, thereby accelerating land degradation and reducing ecosystem productivity. We paired repeat measurements of plant canopy cover with climate at multiple sites across the Chihuahuan Desert over the last century to determine which plant species and functional types may be the most sensitive to climate change. We found that the dominant perennial grass, Bouteloua eriopoda, and species richness had nonlinear responses to summer precipitation, decreasing more in dry summers than increasing with wet summers. Dominant shrub species responded differently to the seasonality of precipitation and drought, but winter precipitation best explained changes in the cover of woody vegetation in upland grasslands and may contribute to woody-plant encroachment that is widespread throughout the southwestern United States and northern Mexico. Temperature explained additional variability of changes in cover of dominant and subdominant plant species. Using a novel empirically based approach we identified ‘‘climate pivot points’’ that were indicative of shifts from increasing to decreasing plant cover over a range of climatic conditions. Reductions in cover of annual and several perennial plant species, in addition to declines in species richness below the long-term summer precipitation mean across plant communities, indicate a decrease in the productivity for all but the most drought-tolerant perennial grasses and shrubs in the Chihuahuan Desert. Overall, our regional synthesis of long-term data provides a robust foundation for forecasting future shifts in the composition and structure of plant assemblages in the largest North American warm desert.

Collaborative Observation and Research (CORE) Watersheds: new strategies for tracking the regional effects of climate change on complex systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murdoch, P. S.

2007-12-01

The past 30 years of environmental research have shown that our world is not made up of discrete components acting independently, but rather of a mosaic of complex relations among air, land, water, living resources, and human activities. Recent warming of the climate is having a significant effect on the functioning of those systems. A national imperative is developing to quickly establish local, regional, and national systems for anticipating environmental degradation from a changing climate and developing cost-effective adaptation or mitigation strategies. In these circumstances, the debate over research versus monitoring becomes moot--there is a clear need for the integrated application of both across a range of temporal and spatial scales. A national framework that effectively addresses the multiple scales and complex multi-disciplinary processes of climate change is being assembled largely from existing programs through collaboration among Federal, State, local, and NGO organizations. The result will be an observation and research network capable of interpreting complex environmental changes at a range of spatial and temporal scales, but at less cost than if the network were funded as an independent initiative. A pilot implementation of the collaborative framework in the Delaware River Basin yielded multi-scale assessments of carbon storage and flux, and the effects of forest fragmentation and soil calcium depletion on ecosystem function. A prototype of a national climate-effects observation and research network linking research watersheds, regional surveys, remote sensing, and ecosystem modeling is being initiated in the Yukon River Basin where carbon flux associated with permafrost thaw could accelerate global warming.

Modeling the Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Pacific Salmon Culture Programs: An Example at Winthrop National Fish Hatchery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hanson, Kyle C.; Peterson, Douglas P.

2014-09-01

Hatcheries have long been used in an attempt to mitigate for declines in wild stocks of Pacific salmon ( Oncorhynchus spp.), though the conservation benefit of hatcheries is a topic of ongoing debate. Irrespective of conservation benefits, a fundamental question is whether hatcheries will be able to function as they have in the past given anticipated future climate conditions. To begin to answer this question, we developed a deterministic modeling framework to evaluate how climate change may affect hatcheries that rear Pacific salmon. The framework considers the physiological tolerances for each species, incorporates a temperature-driven growth model, and uses two metrics commonly monitored by hatchery managers to determine the impacts of changes in water temperature and availability on hatchery rearing conditions. As a case study, we applied the model to the US Fish and Wildlife Service's Winthrop National Fish Hatchery. We projected that hatchery environmental conditions remained within the general physiological tolerances for Chinook salmon in the 2040s (assuming A1B greenhouse gas emissions scenario), but that warmer water temperatures in summer accelerated juvenile salmon growth. Increased growth during summer coincided with periods when water availability should also be lower, thus increasing the likelihood of physiological stress in juvenile salmon. The identification of these climate sensitivities led to a consideration of potential mitigation strategies such as chilling water, altering rations, or modifying rearing cycles. The framework can be refined with new information, but in its present form, it provides a consistent, repeatable method to assess the vulnerability of hatcheries to predicted climate change.

Permafrost thaw in a nested groundwater-flow system

USGS Publications Warehouse

McKenzie, Jeffery M.; Voss, Clifford I.

2013-01-01

Groundwater flow in cold regions containing permafrost accelerates climate-warming-driven thaw and changes thaw patterns. Simulation analyses of groundwater flow and heat transport with freeze/thaw in typical cold-regions terrain with nested flow indicate that early thaw rate is particularly enhanced by flow, the time when adverse environmental impacts of climate-warming-induced permafrost loss may be severest. For the slowest climate-warming rate predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), once significant groundwater flow begins, thick permafrost layers can vanish in several hundred years, but survive over 1,000 years where flow is minimal. Large-scale thaw depends mostly on the balance of heat advection and conduction in the supra-permafrost zone. Surface-water bodies underlain by open taliks allow slow sub-permafrost flow, with lesser influence on regional thaw. Advection dominance over conduction depends on permeability and topography. Groundwater flow around permafrost and flow through permafrost impact thaw differently; the latter enhances early thaw rate. Air-temperature seasonality also increases early thaw. Hydrogeologic heterogeneity and topography strongly affect thaw rates/patterns. Permafrost controls the groundwater/surface-water-geomorphology system; hence, prediction and mitigation of impacts of thaw on ecology, chemical exports and infrastructure require improved hydrogeology/permafrost characterization and understanding

Climate change impacts utilizing regional models for agriculture, hydrology and natural ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kafatos, M.; Asrar, G. R.; El-Askary, H. M.; Hatzopoulos, N.; Kim, J.; Kim, S.; Medvigy, D.; Prasad, A. K.; Smith, E.; Stack, D. H.; Tremback, C.; Walko, R. L.

2012-12-01

Climate change impacts the entire Earth but with crucial and often catastrophic impacts at local and regional levels. Extreme phenomena such as fires, dust storms, droughts and other natural hazards present immediate risks and challenges. Such phenomena will become more extreme as climate change and anthropogenic activities accelerate in the future. We describe a major project funded by NIFA (Grant # 2011-67004-30224), under the joint NSF-DOE-USDA Earth System Models (EaSM) program, to investigate the impacts of climate variability and change on the agricultural and natural (i.e. rangeland) ecosystems in the Southwest USA using a combination of historical and present observations together with climate, and ecosystem models, both in hind-cast and forecast modes. The applicability of the methodology to other regions is relevant (for similar geographic regions as well as other parts of the world with different agriculture and ecosystems) and should advance the state of knowledge for regional impacts of climate change. A combination of multi-model global climate projections from the decadal predictability simulations, to downscale dynamically these projections using three regional climate models, combined with remote sensing MODIS and other data, in order to obtain high-resolution climate data that can be used with hydrological and ecosystem models for impacts analysis, is described in this presentation. Such analysis is needed to assess the future risks and potential impacts of projected changes on these natural and managed ecosystems. The results from our analysis can be used by scientists to assist extended communities to determine agricultural coping strategies, and is, therefore, of interest to wide communities of stakeholders. In future work we will be including surface hydrologic modeling and water resources, extend modeling to higher resolutions and include significantly more crops and geographical regions with different weather and climate conditions. Specifics of the importance of the scientific methodology e.g. RCM ensemble modeling (using OLAM, RAMS and WRF); combining RCM runs with agriculture modeling system (specifically APSIM); bringing different RCM setups to as close as possible common framework, etc., and important science results (e.g. the significance of Gulf of CA SST for precipitation over dry regions; the AR landfall impacts on precipitation; etc.) are described in our work. We emphasize that the methodology is significant in order to advance the state of the art climate change impacts at regional levels; and to implement our methodology for realistic impact analysis on the natural and managed (agriculture) ecosystems, beyond the SW US.

Pleistocene climate and biome evolution modulated at orbital, millennial, and centennial time scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hooghiemstra, H.

2013-05-01

For the northern Andes we present a multi-proxy record of environmental and climatic change at millennial- to century-scale resolution of the full Pleistocene. The composite record includes the 540-m Funza core (2250-27 ka; 1050-yr resolution) from the Bogotá basin (~4°N, 2550 m asl, 2100 samples), the 58-mcd core (284-27 ka; 60-yr resolution) from the Fúquene basin (~5°N, 2540 m asl 4700 samples), and the 12-m core (last 14 ka; 25-yr resolution) from the La Cocha basin (1°N, 2780 m asl, 550 samples). At high elevations climatic variability is mainly driven by the 41-kyr component of orbital forcing changing into a dominant 100-kyr frequency during the last 0.9 Ma. High elevation intraAndean environments are mainly driven by temperature and atmospheric pCO2 while changes in moisture is an important driver of the Andean environments on the Amazonian flank. The Pleistocene is reflected by MIS 87 to 1, the last interglacial-glacial cycle by D/O-cycles 28 to 1 (and during MIS 7-6 another 15 D/O-style cycles), and the Holocene shows many events with an acceleration of climate change. Repeatedly the subpáramo shrub biome is temporarily lost suggesting vertical migration of forest exceeded the maximum migration capacity of the subpáramo biome. Continuous changes in altitidinal vegetation distribution caused mountains above ~1500 m were alternatingly covered by different biomes. Forests reached only ~125 ka modern species compositions indicating most of the Pleistocene record shows nonanalog vegetation associations, however not preventing modern ecological ranges can be applied to reconstruct past environments. Comparison with Greenland, Antarctic and marine climate records is demonstrated.

Effect of climate change on agriculture sustainability in Jordan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khresat, S.

2009-04-01

Jordan is a vulnerable country in terms of climate change impact. In the latest assessment report published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Jordan will suffer from reduced agricultural productivity due to more erratic rainfall patterns, reduced freshwater resources and increased temperatures. The Initial National Communication (INC) to the United Nations Framework Convention to Climate Change (UNFCCC) foresees that over the next three decades, Jordan will witness a rise in temperature, drop in rainfall, reduced ground cover, reduced water availability, heat-waves, and more frequent dust storms. Coupled with the effect of continuing drought incidents, plant cover removal was greatly accelerated. Climate change can impact agricultural sustainability in Jordan in two interrelated ways: first, by diminishing the long-term ability of agroecosystems to provide food and fiber locally; and second, by inducing shifts in agricultural regions that may encroach upon natural habitats, at the expense of floral and faunal diversity. Global warming may encourage the expansion of agricultural activities into regions now occupied by natural ecosystems such as rangelands in the Badia region and forests. Such encroachment will have adverse effects on the fragile ecosystem in those areas (Badia and steppe areas). Primary model test results showed that the reduction of rainfall by 10 to 20% had a negative impact while the increase in rainfall by 10 to 20% had a positive impact on grain yield for both barley and wheat at the different temperature regimes. This is due to the fact that water is the main limiting growth factor for wheat and barley under rainfed agriculture on Jordan. The warming (increase in temperature by 1 to 4˚ C) had negative impact on barley grain yield while it had a positive impact on grain yield of wheat.

Extreme Flood Events Over the Past 300 Years Recorded in the Sediments of a Mountain Lake in the Altay Mountains, Northwestern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, J.; Zhou, J.; Shen, B.; Zeng, H.

2017-12-01

Global climate change has the potential to accelerate the hydrological cycle, which may further enhance the temporal frequency of regional extreme floods. Climatic models predict that intra-annual rainfall variability will intensify, which will shift current rainfall regimes towards more extreme systems with lower precipitation frequencies, longer dry periods, and larger individual precipitation events worldwide. Understanding the temporal variations of extreme floods that occur in response to climate change is essential to anticipate the trends in flood magnitude and frequency in the context of global warming. However, currently available instrumental data are not long enough for capturing the most extreme events, thus the acquisition of long duration datasets for historical floods that extend beyond available instrumental records is clearly an important step in discerning trends in flood frequency and magnitude with respect to climate change. In this study, a reconstruction of paleofloods over the past 300 years was conducted through an analysis of grain sizes from the sediments of Kanas Lake in the Altay Mountains of northwestern China. Grain parameters and frequency distributions both demonstrate that two abrupt environment changes exist within the lake sedimentary sequence. Based on canonical discriminant analysis (CDA) and C-M pattern analysis, two flood events corresponding to ca. 1760 AD and ca. 1890 AD were identified, both of which occurred during warmer and wetter climate conditions according to tree-ring records. These two flood events are also evidenced by lake sedimentary records in the Altay and Tianshan areas. Furthermore, through a comparison with other records, the flood event in ca. 1760 AD seems to have occurred in both the arid central Asia and the Alps in Europe, and thus may have been associated with changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index.

Probable Maximum Precipitation in the U.S. Pacific Northwest in a Changing Climate: PMP UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Xiaodong; Hossain, Faisal; Leung, L. Ruby

The safety of large and aging water infrastructures is gaining attention in water management given the accelerated rate of change in landscape, climate and society. In current engineering practice, such safety is ensured by the design of infrastructure for the Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP). Recently, several physics-based numerical modeling approaches have been proposed to modernize the conventional and ad hoc PMP estimation approach. However, the underlying physics has not been investigated and thus differing PMP estimates are obtained without clarity on their interpretation. In this study, we present a hybrid approach that takes advantage of both traditional engineering wisdom andmore » modern climate science to estimate PMP for current and future climate conditions. The traditional PMP approach is improved and applied to outputs from an ensemble of five CMIP5 models. This hybrid approach is applied in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) to produce ensemble PMP estimation for the historical (1970-2016) and future (2050-2099) time periods. The new historical PMP estimates are verified by comparing them with the traditional estimates. PMP in the PNW will increase by 50% of the current level by 2099 under the RCP8.5 scenario. Most of the increase is caused by warming, which mainly affects moisture availability, with minor contributions from changes in storm efficiency in the future. Moist track change tends to reduce the future PMP. Compared with extreme precipitation, ensemble PMP exhibits higher internal variation. Thus high-quality data of both precipitation and related meteorological fields (temperature, wind fields) are required to reduce uncertainties in the ensemble PMP estimates.« less

Quantifying the effects of land use and climate on Holocene vegetation in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marquer, Laurent; Gaillard, Marie-José; Sugita, Shinya; Poska, Anneli; Trondman, Anna-Kari; Mazier, Florence; Nielsen, Anne Birgitte; Fyfe, Ralph M.; Jönsson, Anna Maria; Smith, Benjamin; Kaplan, Jed O.; Alenius, Teija; Birks, H. John B.; Bjune, Anne E.; Christiansen, Jörg; Dodson, John; Edwards, Kevin J.; Giesecke, Thomas; Herzschuh, Ulrike; Kangur, Mihkel; Koff, Tiiu; Latałowa, Małgorzata; Lechterbeck, Jutta; Olofsson, Jörgen; Seppä, Heikki

2017-09-01

Early agriculture can be detected in palaeovegetation records, but quantification of the relative importance of climate and land use in influencing regional vegetation composition since the onset of agriculture is a topic that is rarely addressed. We present a novel approach that combines pollen-based REVEALS estimates of plant cover with climate, anthropogenic land-cover and dynamic vegetation modelling results. This is used to quantify the relative impacts of land use and climate on Holocene vegetation at a sub-continental scale, i.e. northern and western Europe north of the Alps. We use redundancy analysis and variation partitioning to quantify the percentage of variation in vegetation composition explained by the climate and land-use variables, and Monte Carlo permutation tests to assess the statistical significance of each variable. We further use a similarity index to combine pollen-based REVEALS estimates with climate-driven dynamic vegetation modelling results. The overall results indicate that climate is the major driver of vegetation when the Holocene is considered as a whole and at the sub-continental scale, although land use is important regionally. Four critical phases of land-use effects on vegetation are identified. The first phase (from 7000 to 6500 BP) corresponds to the early impacts on vegetation of farming and Neolithic forest clearance and to the dominance of climate as a driver of vegetation change. During the second phase (from 4500 to 4000 BP), land use becomes a major control of vegetation. Climate is still the principal driver, although its influence decreases gradually. The third phase (from 2000 to 1500 BP) is characterised by the continued role of climate on vegetation as a consequence of late-Holocene climate shifts and specific climate events that influence vegetation as well as land use. The last phase (from 500 to 350 BP) shows an acceleration of vegetation changes, in particular during the last century, caused by new farming practices and forestry in response to population growth and industrialization. This is a unique signature of anthropogenic impact within the Holocene but European vegetation remains climatically sensitive and thus may continue to respond to ongoing climate change.

Interrelationships between climate and human cultural development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zolitschka, B.

2010-03-01

Human influence on the environment increased continuously during the late Holocene and often interferes with the reconstruction of climatic fluctuations in natural archives. However, for the first millennium BC there exist convincing evidences of a climatic deterioration determined by geological, geomorphological, paleoecological and archaeological records from Europe and beyond. A fluctuation in the -14C record from tree rings indicates that this climatic setback seems to be of a global character which would support its solar origin. Geochemical and physical data of very well-dated lacustrine sediments from a German maar (Lake Holzmaar, West Eifel Volcanic Field) records a dramatic environmental change which coincides with or follows this climatic deterioration at 800 BC. These changes are related to a conspicuous shift towards an increased erosion of the soils in the catchment area. Thus sediment yields of the lacustrine system more than quadruple from the low mean mid-Holocene (7900-800 BC) level of 1.5 t km-2 yr-1 to values of 6.3 t km-2 yr-1 for the last centuries of the first millennium BC, i.e. until the start of the Roman occupation in the West Eifel region around 50 BC. Still, this elevated sediment yield value is rather low compared to 19 t km-2 yr-1 reached during the period of the Roman Empire (50 BC-400 AD) or even to 25 t km-2 yr-1 that were gained during the Middle Ages (11th to 13th century). During the Migration Period and the early Middle Ages, however, sediment yield data decreased again to almost mid-Holocene values of 2.3 t km-2 yr-1. Whether the shift in ecosystem stability following immediately after 800 BC was triggered by a solar-induced climatic change cannot absolutely be excluded but must be cast into doubt. Intensive deforestation indicated by pollen analyses suggests that human cultural development from the late Bronze Age to the early Iron Age, accompanied by the introduction of iron tools, was the reason for this alteration. Using iron tools people were much more efficient to cut down trees and till their fields. The combination of a reduced plant cover causing an increased surface runoff with the destruction of the natural topsoil by tillage operations resulted in accelerated soil erosion and thus completely changed the runoff-controlled hydrological regime of the catchment area and also the conditions in the lacustrine depositional system of Lake Holzmaar. Presumably, the cultural change from bronze to iron manufacturing societies was not triggered by climate change around 800 BC. Such a technological shift seems to be rather slow and depends on the process of knowledge transfer temporally (from generation to generation) as well as also regionally (from tribe to tribe). However, a period of climatic deterioration which most certainly came along with a decline in agricultural productivity might have been a process to accentuate this cultural transition and to accelerate the spread of the new technology. Moreover, this process elucidates that owing to favorable circumstances human societies might be capable to cope with sudden climatic shifts. The amount of environmental damage this might cause remains an open question and can only be estimated for scenarios from the past. The non-linear behaviors of environmental systems with thresholds that can be passed make reliable predictions for the future not very resilient.

A rapid upward shift of a forest ecotone during 40 years of warming in the Green Mountains of Vermont.

PubMed

Beckage, Brian; Osborne, Ben; Gavin, Daniel G; Pucko, Carolyn; Siccama, Thomas; Perkins, Timothy

2008-03-18

Detecting latitudinal range shifts of forest trees in response to recent climate change is difficult because of slow demographic rates and limited dispersal but may be facilitated by spatially compressed climatic zones along elevation gradients in montane environments. We resurveyed forest plots established in 1964 along elevation transects in the Green Mountains (Vermont) to examine whether a shift had occurred in the location of the northern hardwood-boreal forest ecotone (NBE) from 1964 to 2004. We found a 19% increase in dominance of northern hardwoods from 70% in 1964 to 89% in 2004 in the lower half of the NBE. This shift was driven by a decrease (up to 76%) in boreal and increase (up to 16%) in northern hardwood basal area within the lower portions of the ecotone. We used aerial photographs and satellite imagery to estimate a 91- to 119-m upslope shift in the upper limits of the NBE from 1962 to 2005. The upward shift is consistent with regional climatic change during the same period; interpolating climate data to the NBE showed a 1.1 degrees C increase in annual temperature, which would predict a 208-m upslope movement of the ecotone, along with a 34% increase in precipitation. The rapid upward movement of the NBE indicates little inertia to climatically induced range shifts in montane forests; the upslope shift may have been accelerated by high turnover in canopy trees that provided opportunities for ingrowth of lower elevation species. Our results indicate that high-elevation forests may be jeopardized by climate change sooner than anticipated.

Theoretical electron scattering amplitudes and spin polarizations. Electron energies 100 to 1500 eV Part II. Be, N, O, Al, Cl, V, Co, Cu, As, Nb, Ag, Sn, Sb, I, and Ta targets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wildhaber, M. L.; Wikle, C. K.; Anderson, C. J.; Franz, K. J.; Moran, E. H.; Dey, R.

2012-12-01

Recent decades have brought substantive changes in land use and climate across the earth, prompting a need to think of population and community ecology not as a static entity, but as a dynamic process. Increasingly there is evidence of ecological changes due to climate change. Although much of this evidence comes from ground-truth observations of biogeographic data, there is increasing reliance on models that relate climate variables to biological systems. Such models can then be used to explore potential changes to population and community level ecological systems in response to climate scenarios as obtained from global climate models (GCMs). A key issue associated with modeling ecosystem response to climate is GCM downscaling to regional and local ecological/biological response models that can be used in vulnerability and risk assessments of the potential effects of climate change. The need is for an explicit means for scaling results up or down multiple hierarchical levels and an effective assessment of the level of uncertainty surrounding current knowledge, data, and data collection methods with these goals identified as in need of acceleration in the U.S. Climate Change Science Program FY2009 Implementation Priorities. In the end, such work should provide the information needed to develop adaptation and mitigation methodologies to minimize the effects of directional and nonlinear climate change on the Nation's land, water, ecosystems, and biological populations. We are working to develop an approach that includes multi-scale and hierarchical Bayesian modeling of Missouri River sturgeon population dynamics. Statistical linkages are defined to quantify implications of climate on fish populations of the Missouri River ecosystem. This approach is a hybrid between physical (deterministic) downscaling and statistical downscaling, recognizing that there is uncertainty in both. The model must include linkages between climate and habitat, and between habitat and population. A key advantage of the hierarchical approach used in this study is that it incorporates various sources of observations and includes established scientific knowledge, and associated uncertainties. The goal is to evaluate the potential distributional changes in an ecological system, given distributional changes implied by a series of linked climate and system models under various emissions/use scenarios. The predictive modeling system being developed will be a powerful tool for evaluating management options for coping with global change consequences and assessing uncertainty of those evaluations. Specifically for the endangered pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus), we are already able to assess potential effects of any climate scenario on growth and population size distribution. Future models will incorporate survival and reproduction. Ultimately, these models provide guidance for successful recovery and conservation of the pallid sturgeon. Here we present a basic outline of the approach we are developing and a simple pallid sturgeon example to demonstrate how multiple scales and parameter uncertainty are incorporated.

Final Scientific/Technical Report: National Institute for Climatic Change Research Coastal Center

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tornqvist, Torbjorn; Chambers, Jeffrey

It is widely recognized that coastal environments are under particular threat due to changes associated with climate change. Accelerated sea-level rise, in some regions augmented by land subsidence, plus the possibility of a changing storm climate, renders low-lying coastal landscapes and their ecosystems vulnerable to future change. This is a pressing problem, because these ecosystems commonly rank as some of the most valuable on the planet. The objective of the NICCR Coastal Center was to support basic research that aims at reducing uncertainty about ecosystem changes during the next century, carried out along the U.S. coastlines. The NICCR Coastal Centermore » has funded 20 projects nationwide (carried out at 27 institutions) that addressed numerous aspects of the problems outlined above. The research has led to a variety of new insights, a significant number of which published in elite scientific journals. It is anticipated that the dissemination of this work in the scientific literature will continue for several more years, given that a number of projects have only recently reached their end date. In addition, NICCR funds have been used to support research at Tulane University. The lion’s share of these funds has been invested in the development of unique facilities for experimental research in coastal ecosystems. This aspect of the work could have a lasting impact in the future.« less

Integrated Climate Change Impacts Assessment in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cayan, D. R.; Franco, G.; Meyer, R.; Anderson, M.; Bromirski, P. D.

2014-12-01

This paper summarizes lessons learned from an ongoing series of climate change assessments for California, conducted by the scientific community and State and local agencies. A series of three Assessments have considered vulnerability and adaptation issues for both managed and natural systems. California's vulnerability is many faceted, arising because of an exceptionally drought prone climate, open coast and large estuary exposure to sea level rise, sensitive ecosystems and complex human footprint and economy. Key elements of the assessments have been a common set of climate and sea-level rise scenarios, based upon IPCC GCM simulations. Regionalized and localized output from GCM projections was provided to research teams investigating water supply, agriculture, coastal resources, ecosystem services, forestry, public health, and energy demand and hydropower generation. The assessment results are helping to investigate the broad range of uncertainty that is inherent in climate projections, and users are becoming better equipped to process an envelope of potential climate and impacts. Some projections suggest that without changes in California's present fresh-water delivery system, serious water shortages would take place, but that technical solutions are possible. Under a warmer climate, wildfire vulnerability is heightened markedly in some areas--estimated increases in burned area by the end of the 21st Century exceed 100% of the historical area burned in much of the forested areas of Northern California Along California coast and estuaries, projected rise in mean sea level will accelerate flooding occurrences, prompting the need for better education and preparedness. Many policymakers and agency personnel in California are factoring in results from the assessments and recognize the need for a sustained assessment process. An ongoing challenge, of course, is to achieve more engagement with a broader community of decision makers, and notably with the private sector.

Emerging role of wetland methane emissions in driving 21st century climate change.

PubMed

Zhang, Zhen; Zimmermann, Niklaus E; Stenke, Andrea; Li, Xin; Hodson, Elke L; Zhu, Gaofeng; Huang, Chunlin; Poulter, Benjamin

2017-09-05

Wetland methane (CH 4 ) emissions are the largest natural source in the global CH 4 budget, contributing to roughly one third of total natural and anthropogenic emissions. As the second most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas in the atmosphere after CO 2 , CH 4 is strongly associated with climate feedbacks. However, due to the paucity of data, wetland CH 4 feedbacks were not fully assessed in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. The degree to which future expansion of wetlands and CH 4 emissions will evolve and consequently drive climate feedbacks is thus a question of major concern. Here we present an ensemble estimate of wetland CH 4 emissions driven by 38 general circulation models for the 21st century. We find that climate change-induced increases in boreal wetland extent and temperature-driven increases in tropical CH 4 emissions will dominate anthropogenic CH 4 emissions by 38 to 56% toward the end of the 21st century under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6). Depending on scenarios, wetland CH 4 feedbacks translate to an increase in additional global mean radiative forcing of 0.04 W·m -2 to 0.19 W·m -2 by the end of the 21st century. Under the "worst-case" RCP8.5 scenario, with no climate mitigation, boreal CH 4 emissions are enhanced by 18.05 Tg to 41.69 Tg, due to thawing of inundated areas during the cold season (December to May) and rising temperature, while tropical CH 4 emissions accelerate with a total increment of 48.36 Tg to 87.37 Tg by 2099. Our results suggest that climate mitigation policies must consider mitigation of wetland CH 4 feedbacks to maintain average global warming below 2 °C.

Emerging role of wetland methane emissions in driving 21st century climate change

PubMed Central

Zimmermann, Niklaus E.; Stenke, Andrea; Li, Xin; Hodson, Elke L.; Zhu, Gaofeng; Huang, Chunlin; Poulter, Benjamin

2017-01-01

Wetland methane (CH4) emissions are the largest natural source in the global CH4 budget, contributing to roughly one third of total natural and anthropogenic emissions. As the second most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas in the atmosphere after CO2, CH4 is strongly associated with climate feedbacks. However, due to the paucity of data, wetland CH4 feedbacks were not fully assessed in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. The degree to which future expansion of wetlands and CH4 emissions will evolve and consequently drive climate feedbacks is thus a question of major concern. Here we present an ensemble estimate of wetland CH4 emissions driven by 38 general circulation models for the 21st century. We find that climate change-induced increases in boreal wetland extent and temperature-driven increases in tropical CH4 emissions will dominate anthropogenic CH4 emissions by 38 to 56% toward the end of the 21st century under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6). Depending on scenarios, wetland CH4 feedbacks translate to an increase in additional global mean radiative forcing of 0.04 W·m−2 to 0.19 W·m−2 by the end of the 21st century. Under the “worst-case” RCP8.5 scenario, with no climate mitigation, boreal CH4 emissions are enhanced by 18.05 Tg to 41.69 Tg, due to thawing of inundated areas during the cold season (December to May) and rising temperature, while tropical CH4 emissions accelerate with a total increment of 48.36 Tg to 87.37 Tg by 2099. Our results suggest that climate mitigation policies must consider mitigation of wetland CH4 feedbacks to maintain average global warming below 2 °C. PMID:28827347

Seed origin and warming constrain lodgepole pine recruitment, slowing the pace of population range shifts

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Conlisk, Erin; Castanha, Cristina; Germino, Matthew J.

Understanding how climate warming will affect the demographic rates of different ecotypes is critical to predicting shifts in species distributions. In this study, we present results from a common garden, climate change experiment in which we measured seedling recruitment of lodgepole pine, a widespread North American conifer that is also planted globally. Seeds from a low-elevation provenance had more than three-fold greater recruitment to their third year than seeds from a high-elevation provenance across sites within and above its native elevation range and across climate manipulations. Heating halved recruitment to the third year of both low- and high-elevation seed sourcesmore » across the elevation gradient, while watering more than doubled recruitment, alleviating some of the negative effects of heating. Demographic models based on recruitment data from the climate manipulations and long-term observations of adult populations revealed that heating could effectively halt modeled upslope range expansion except when combined with watering. Simulating fire and rapid postfire forest recovery at lower elevations accelerated lodgepole pine expansion into the alpine, but did not alter final abundance rankings among climate scenarios. Regardless of climate scenario, greater recruitment of low-elevation seeds compensated for longer dispersal distances to treeline, assuming colonization was allowed to proceed over multiple centuries. In conclusion, our results show that ecotypes from lower elevations within a species’ range could enhance recruitment and facilitate upslope range shifts with climate change.« less

Seed origin and warming constrain lodgepole pine recruitment, slowing the pace of population range shifts

DOE PAGES

Conlisk, Erin; Castanha, Cristina; Germino, Matthew J.; ...

2017-07-26

Understanding how climate warming will affect the demographic rates of different ecotypes is critical to predicting shifts in species distributions. In this study, we present results from a common garden, climate change experiment in which we measured seedling recruitment of lodgepole pine, a widespread North American conifer that is also planted globally. Seeds from a low-elevation provenance had more than three-fold greater recruitment to their third year than seeds from a high-elevation provenance across sites within and above its native elevation range and across climate manipulations. Heating halved recruitment to the third year of both low- and high-elevation seed sourcesmore » across the elevation gradient, while watering more than doubled recruitment, alleviating some of the negative effects of heating. Demographic models based on recruitment data from the climate manipulations and long-term observations of adult populations revealed that heating could effectively halt modeled upslope range expansion except when combined with watering. Simulating fire and rapid postfire forest recovery at lower elevations accelerated lodgepole pine expansion into the alpine, but did not alter final abundance rankings among climate scenarios. Regardless of climate scenario, greater recruitment of low-elevation seeds compensated for longer dispersal distances to treeline, assuming colonization was allowed to proceed over multiple centuries. In conclusion, our results show that ecotypes from lower elevations within a species’ range could enhance recruitment and facilitate upslope range shifts with climate change.« less

Integrating solar energy and climate research into science education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Betts, Alan K.; Hamilton, James; Ligon, Sam; Mahar, Ann Marie

2016-01-01

This paper analyzes multi-year records of solar flux and climate data from two solar power sites in Vermont. We show the inter-annual differences of temperature, wind, panel solar flux, electrical power production, and cloud cover. Power production has a linear relation to a dimensionless measure of the transmission of sunlight through the cloud field. The difference between panel and air temperatures reaches 24°C with high solar flux and low wind speed. High panel temperatures that occur in summer with low wind speeds and clear skies can reduce power production by as much as 13%. The intercomparison of two sites 63 km apart shows that while temperature is highly correlated on daily (R2=0.98) and hourly (R2=0.94) timescales, the correlation of panel solar flux drops markedly from daily (R2=0.86) to hourly (R2=0.63) timescales. Minimum temperatures change little with cloud cover, but the diurnal temperature range shows a nearly linear increase with falling cloud cover to 16°C under nearly clear skies, similar to results from the Canadian Prairies. The availability of these new solar and climate datasets allows local student groups, a Rutland High School team here, to explore the coupled relationships between climate, clouds, and renewable power production. As our society makes major changes in our energy infrastructure in response to climate change, it is important that we accelerate the technical education of high school students using real-world data.

Accelerating Thermokarst Transforms Ice-Cored Terrain Triggering a Downstream Cascade to the Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rudy, A. C. A.; Lamoureux, S. F.; Kokelj, S. V.; Smith, I. R.; England, J. H.

2017-11-01

Recent climate warming has activated the melt-out of relict massive ice in permafrost-preserved moraines throughout the western Canadian Arctic. This ice that has persisted since the last glaciation, buried beneath as little as 1 m of overburden, is now undergoing accelerated permafrost degradation and thermokarst. Here we document recent and intensifying thermokarst activity on eastern Banks Island that has increased the fluvial transport of sediments and solutes to the ocean. Isotopic evidence demonstrates that a major contribution to discharge is melt of relict ground ice, resulting in a significant hydrological input from thermokarst augmenting summer runoff. Accelerated thermokarst is transforming the landscape and the summer hydrological regime and altering the timing of terrestrial to marine and lacustrine transfers over significant areas of the western Canadian Arctic. The intensity of the landscape changes demonstrates that regions of cold, continuous permafrost are undergoing irreversible alteration, unprecedented since deglaciation ( 13 cal kyr B.P.).

"no snow - no skiing excursion - consequences of climatic change?"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neunzig, Thilo

2014-05-01

Climatology and climate change have become central topics in Geography at our school. Because of that we set up a climatological station at our school. The data are an important basis to observe sudden changes in the weather. The present winter (2013/2014) shows the importance of climate change in Alzey / Germany. In winter many students think of the yearly skiing trip to Schwaz / Austria which is part of our school programme. Due to that the following questions arise: Will skiing still be possible if climate change accelerates? How are the skiing regions in the Alpes going to change? What will happen in about 20 years? How does artificial snow change the landscape and the skiing sport? Students have to be aware of the ecological damage of skiing trips. Each class has to come up with a concept how these trips can be as environmentally friendly as possible. - the trip is for a restricted number of students only (year 8 only) - a small skiing region is chosen which is not overcrowded - snow has to be guaranteed in the ski area to avoid the production of artificial snow (avoidance of high water consumption) - the bus arrives with a class and returns with the one that had been there before These are but a few ideas of students in order to make their trip as environmentally friendly as possible. What is missing is only what is going to happen in the future. What will be the effect of climate change for skiing regions in the secondary mountains? How is the average temperature for winter going to develop? Are there possibilities for summer tourism (e.g. hiking) instead of skiing in winter? The students are going to try to find answers to these questions which are going to be presented on a poster on the GIFT-Workshop in Vienna.

Explaining European fungal fruiting phenology with climate variability.

PubMed

Andrew, Carrie; Heegaard, Einar; Høiland, Klaus; Senn-Irlet, Beatrice; Kuyper, Thomas W; Krisai-Greilhuber, Irmgard; Kirk, Paul M; Heilmann-Clausen, Jacob; Gange, Alan C; Egli, Simon; Bässler, Claus; Büntgen, Ulf; Boddy, Lynne; Kauserud, Håvard

2018-06-01

Here we assess the impact of geographically dependent (latitude, longitude, and altitude) changes in bioclimatic (temperature, precipitation, and primary productivity) variability on fungal fruiting phenology across Europe. Two main nutritional guilds of fungi, saprotrophic and ectomycorrhizal, were further separated into spring and autumn fruiters. We used a path analysis to investigate how biogeographic patterns in fungal fruiting phenology coincided with seasonal changes in climate and primary production. Across central to northern Europe, mean fruiting varied by approximately 25 d, primarily with latitude. Altitude affected fruiting by up to 30 d, with spring delays and autumnal accelerations. Fruiting was as much explained by the effects of bioclimatic variability as by their large-scale spatial patterns. Temperature drove fruiting of autumnal ectomycorrhizal and saprotrophic groups as well as spring saprotrophic groups, while primary production and precipitation were major drivers for spring-fruiting ectomycorrhizal fungi. Species-specific phenology predictors were not stable, instead deviating from the overall mean. There is significant likelihood that further climatic change, especially in temperature, will impact fungal phenology patterns at large spatial scales. The ecological implications are diverse, potentially affecting food webs (asynchrony), nutrient cycling and the timing of nutrient availability in ecosystems. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

Arctic warming will promote Atlantic-Pacific fish interchange

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wisz, M. S.; Broennimann, O.; Grønkjær, P.; Møller, P. R.; Olsen, S. M.; Swingedouw, D.; Hedeholm, R. B.; Nielsen, E. E.; Guisan, A.; Pellissier, L.

2015-03-01

Throughout much of the Quaternary Period, inhospitable environmental conditions above the Arctic Circle have been a formidable barrier separating most marine organisms in the North Atlantic from those in the North Pacific. Rapid warming has begun to lift this barrier, potentially facilitating the interchange of marine biota between the two seas. Here, we forecast the potential northward progression of 515 fish species following climate change, and report the rate of potential species interchange between the Atlantic and the Pacific via the Northwest Passage and the Northeast Passage. For this, we projected niche-based models under climate change scenarios and simulated the spread of species through the passages when climatic conditions became suitable. Results reveal a complex range of responses during this century, and accelerated interchange after 2050. By 2100 up to 41 species could enter the Pacific and 44 species could enter the Atlantic, via one or both passages. Consistent with historical and recent biodiversity interchanges, this exchange of fish species may trigger changes for biodiversity and food webs in the North Atlantic and North Pacific, with ecological and economic consequences to ecosystems that at present contribute 39% to global marine fish landings.

An uncertainty-based framework to quantifying climate change impacts on coastal flood vulnerability: case study of New York City.

PubMed

Zahmatkesh, Zahra; Karamouz, Mohammad

2017-10-17

The continued development efforts around the world, growing population, and the increased probability of occurrence of extreme hydrologic events have adversely affected natural and built environments. Flood damages and loss of lives from the devastating storms, such as Irene and Sandy on the East Coast of the USA, are examples of the vulnerability to flooding that even developed countries have to face. The odds of coastal flooding disasters have been increased due to accelerated sea level rise, climate change impacts, and communities' interest to live near the coastlines. Climate change, for instance, is becoming a major threat to sustainable development because of its adverse impacts on the hydrologic cycle. Effective management strategies are thus required for flood vulnerability reduction and disaster preparedness. This paper is an extension to the flood resilience studies in the New York City coastal watershed. Here, a framework is proposed to quantify coastal flood vulnerability while accounting for climate change impacts. To do so, a multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) approach that combines watershed characteristics (factors) and their weights is proposed to quantify flood vulnerability. Among the watershed characteristics, potential variation in the hydrologic factors under climate change impacts is modeled utilizing the general circulation models' (GCMs) outputs. The considered factors include rainfall, extreme water level, and sea level rise that exacerbate flood vulnerability through increasing exposure and susceptibility to flooding. Uncertainty in the weights as well as values of factors is incorporated in the analysis using the Monte Carlo (MC) sampling method by selecting the best-fitted distributions to the parameters with random nature. A number of low impact development (LID) measures are then proposed to improve watershed adaptive capacity to deal with coastal flooding. Potential range of current and future vulnerability to flooding is estimated with and without consideration of climate change impacts and after implementation of LIDs. Results show that climate change has the potential to increase rainfall intensity, flood volume, floodplain extent, and flood depth in the watershed. The results also reveal that improving system resilience by reinforcing the adaptation capacity through implementing LIDs could mitigate flood vulnerability. Moreover, the results indicate the significant effect of uncertainties, arising from the factors' weights as well as climate change, impacts modeling approach, on quantifying flood vulnerability. This study underlines the importance of developing applicable schemes to quantify coastal flood vulnerability for evolving future responses to adverse impacts of climate change.

Balancing stability and flexibility in adaptive governance: an ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Adaptive governance must work “on the ground,” that is, it must operate through structures and procedures that the people it governs perceive to be legitimate and fair, as well as incorporating processes and substantive goals that are effective in allowing social-ecological systems (SESs) to adapt to climate change and other impacts. To address the continuing and accelerating alterations that climate change is bringing to SESs, adaptive governance generally will require more flexibility than prior governance institutions have often allowed. However, to function as good governance, adaptive governance must pay real attention to the problem of how to balance this increased need for flexibility with continuing governance stability so that it can foster adaptation to change without being perceived or experienced as perpetually destabilizing, disruptive, and unfair. Flexibility and stability serve different purposes in governance, and a variety of tools exist to strike different balances between them while still preserving the governance institution’s legitimacy among the people governed. After reviewing those purposes and the implications of climate change for environmental governance, we examine psychological insights into the structuring of adaptive governance and the variety of legal tools available to incorporate those insights into adaptive governance regimes. Because the substantive goals of governance systems will differ among specific systems, we do no

Potential effects of diurnal temperature oscillations on potato late blight with special reference to climate change.

PubMed

Shakya, S K; Goss, E M; Dufault, N S; van Bruggen, A H C

2015-02-01

Global climate change will have effects on diurnal temperature oscillations as well as on average temperatures. Studies on potato late blight (Phytophthora infestans) development have not considered daily temperature oscillations. We hypothesize that growth and development rates of P. infestans would be less influenced by change in average temperature as the magnitude of fluctuations in daily temperatures increases. We investigated the effects of seven constant (10, 12, 15, 17, 20, 23, and 27°C) and diurnally oscillating (±5 and ±10°C) temperatures around the same means on number of lesions, incubation period, latent period, radial lesion growth rate, and sporulation intensity on detached potato leaves inoculated with two P. infestans isolates from clonal lineages US-8 and US-23. A four-parameter thermodynamic model was used to describe relationships between temperature and disease development measurements. Incubation and latency progression accelerated with increasing oscillations at low mean temperatures but slowed down with increasing oscillations at high mean temperatures (P < 0.005), as hypothesized. Infection efficiency, lesion growth rate, and sporulation increased under small temperature oscillations compared with constant temperatures but decreased when temperature oscillations were large. Thus, diurnal amplitude in temperature should be considered in models of potato late blight, particularly when predicting effects of global climate change on disease development.

Changes in Rongbuk lake and Imja lake in the Everest region of Himalaya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, W.; Doko, T.; Liu, C.; Ichinose, T.; Fukui, H.; Feng, Q.; Gou, P.

2014-12-01

The Himalaya holds the world record in terms of range and elevation. It is one of the most extensively glacierized regions in the world except the Polar Regions. The Himalaya is a region sensitive to climate change. Changes in the glacial regime are indicators of global climate changes. Since the second half of the last century, most Himalayan glaciers have melted due to climate change. These changes directly affected the changes of glacial lakes in the Himalayan region due to the glacier retreat. New glacial lakes are formed, and a number of them have expanded in the Everest region of the Himalayas. This paper focuses on the two glacial lakes which are Imja Lake, located at the southern slope, and Rongbuk Lake, located at the northern slope in the Mt. Everest region, Himalaya to present the spatio-temporal changes from 1976 to 2008. Topographical conditions between two lakes were different (Kruskal-Wallis test, p < 0.05). Rongbuk Lake was located at 623 m higher than Imja Lake, and radiation of Rongbuk Lake was higher than the Imja Lake. Although size of Imja Lake was larger than the Rongbuk Lake in 2008, the growth speed of Rongbuk Lake was accelerating since 2000 and exceeds Imja Lake in 2000-2008. This trend of expansion of Rongbuk Lake is anticipated to be continued in the 21st century. Rongbuk Lake would be the biggest potential risk of glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) at the Everest region of Himalaya in the future.

Unexpected patterns of vegetation distribution response and climate change velocities in cold ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Macias-Fauria, M.; Johnson, E. A.; Forbes, B. C.; Willis, K. J.

2013-12-01

In cold ecosystems such as sub-alpine forests and forest-tundra, vegetation geographical ranges are expected to expand upward/northward in a warmer world. Such moving fronts have been predicted to 1) decrease the remaining alpine area in mountain systems, increasing fragmentation and extinction risk of many alpine taxa, and 2) fundamentally modify the energy budget of newly afforested areas, enhancing further regional warming due to a reduction in albedo. The latter is particularly significant in the forest-tundra, where changes over large regions can have regional-to-global effects on climate. An integral part of the expected range shifts is their velocity. Whereas range shifts across thermal gradients can theoretically be fast in an elevation gradient relative to climate velocity (i.e. rate of climate change) due to the short distances involved, large lags are expected over the flat forest-tundra. Mountain regions have thus been identified as buffer areas where species can track climate change, in opposition to flat terrain where climate velocity is faster. Thus, much shorter time-to-equilibrium are expected for advancing upslope sub-alpine forest than for advancing northern boreal forest. We contribute to this discussion by showing two mechanisms that might largely alter the above predictions in opposite directions: 1) In mountain regions, terrain heterogeneity not only allows for slower climate velocities, but slope processes largely affect the advance of vegetation. Indeed, such mechanisms can potentially reduce the climatic signal in vegetation distribution limits (e.g. treeline), precluding it from migrating to climatically favourable areas - since these areas occur in geologically unfavourable ones. Such seemingly local control to species range shifts was found to reduce the climate-sensitive treeline areas in the sub-alpine forest of the Canadian Rocky Mountains to ~5% at a landscape scale, fundamentally altering the predictions of vegetation response to climate warming in the region (Macias-Fauria & Johnson 20013, PNAS). 2) In the low arctic tundra, un-treed to treed landscapes have sprouted in several parts of the tundra in a matter of decades, as opposed to the previously predicted response times of several centuries for boreal forest to advance to its new climate optimum (migrational lags). This takes place not through very rapid moving fronts, but through phenotypic responses of extant vegetation with highly flexible life forms, such as woody deciduous shrubs (Salix, Alnus, Betula). The resulting vegetation response creates strong energy feedbacks while at the same time potentially further reduces the speed of northward displacement of the boreal forest, that has to compete with a new treed ecosystem (Macias-Fauria et al. 2012, Nature Climate Change). In conclusion, control of rates of migration by factors other than climate in mountain systems can largely reduce the ability of vegetation to track climate change, and emergence of structurally novel ecosystems in low arctic tundra might largely alter current predictions based on climate response of vegetation, by accelerating ecosystem change and reducing migrational rates simultaneously.

Impact of regional afforestation on climatic conditions in metropolitan areas: case study of Copenhagen

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stysiak, Aleksander Andrzej; Bergen Jensen, Marina; Mahura, Alexander

2016-04-01

Like most other places, European metropolitan areas will face a range of climate-related challenges over the next decades that may influence the nature of urban life across the continent. Under future urbanization and climate change scenarios the well-being and comfort of the urban population might become progressively compromised. In urban areas, the effects of the warming climate will be accelerated by combination of Urban Heat Island effect (UHI) and extreme heat waves. The land cover composition directly influences atmospheric variability, and can either escalate or downscale the projected changes. Vegetation, forest ecosystems in particular, are anticipated to play an important role in modulating local and regional climatic conditions, and to be vital factor in the process of adapting cities to warming climate. This study investigates the impact of forest and land-cover change on formation and development of temperature regimes in the Copenhagen Metropolitan Area (CPH-MA). Potential to modify the UHI effect in CPH-MA is estimated. Using 2009 meteorological data, and up-to-date 2012 high resolution land-cover data we employed the online integrated meteorology-chemistry/aerosols Enviro-HIRLAM (Environment - High Resolution Limited Area Model) modeling system to simulate air temperature (at 2 meter height) fields for a selected period in July 2009. Employing research tools (such as METGRAF meteorological software and Geographical Information Systems) we then estimated the influence of different afforestation and urbanization scenarios with new forests being located after the Danish national afforestation plan, after proximity to the city center, after dominating wind characteristics, and urbanization taking place as densification of the existing conurbation. This study showed the difference in temperature up to 3.25°C, and the decrease in the spatial extent of temperature fields up to 68%, depending on the selected scenario. Performed simulations demonstrated that well-positioned and well-sized afforestation at the regional scale can significantly affect the spatial distribution, structure and intensity of the temperature field. This study points to vegetation having practical applications in urban and regional planning for modifying local climatic conditions. Keywords: Urban Heat Island, Afforestation, Land cover change, Urban planning, Climate change adaptation, Enviro-HIRLAM

Simulated Impacts of Climate Change on Water Use and Yield of Irrigated Sugarcane in South Africa

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jones, M.R; Singels, A.; Ruane, A. C.

2015-01-01

Reliable predictions of climate change impacts on water use, irrigation requirements and yields of irrigated sugarcane in South Africa (a water-scarce country) are necessary to plan adaptation strategies. Although previous work has been done in this regard, methodologies and results vary considerably. The objectives were (1) to estimate likely impacts of climate change on sugarcane yields, water use and irrigation demand at three irrigated sugarcane production sites in South Africa (Malelane, Pongola and La Mercy) for current (1980-2010) and future (2070-2100) climate scenarios, using an approach based on the Agricultural Model Inter-comparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) protocols; and (2) to assess the suitability of this methodology for investigating climate change impacts on sugarcane production. Future climate datasets were generated using the Delta downscaling method and three Global Circulation Models (GCMs) assuming atmospheric CO2 concentration [CO2] of 734 ppm(A2 emissions scenario). Yield and water use were simulated using the DSSAT-Canegro v4.5 model. Irrigated cane yields are expected to increase at all three sites (between 11 and 14%), primarily due to increased interception of radiation as a result of accelerated canopy development. Evapotranspiration and irrigation requirements increased by 11% due to increased canopy cover and evaporative demand. Sucrose yields are expected to decline because of increased consumption of photo-assimilate for structural growth and maintenance respiration. Crop responses in canopy development and yield formation differed markedly between the crop cycles investigated. Possible agronomic implications of these results include reduced weed control costs due to shortened periods of partial canopy, a need for improved efficiency of irrigation to counter increased demands, and adjustments to ripening and harvest practices to counter decreased cane quality and optimize productivity. Although the Delta climate data downscaling method is considered robust, accurate and easily-understood, it does not change the future number of rain-days per month. The impacts of this and other climate data simplifications ought to be explored in future work. Shortcomings of the DSSAT-Canegro model include the simulated responses of phenological development, photosynthesis and respiration processes to high temperatures, and the disconnect between simulated biomass accumulation and expansive growth. Proposed methodology refinements should improve the reliability of predicted climate change impacts on sugarcane yield.

Assessing climate change impacts on fruit plant and pest phenology and their synchrony: the case of apple and codling moth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Felber, Raphael; Stöckli, Sibylle; Calanca, Pierluigi

2017-04-01

Temperature is a main climatic driver of plant phenology and the dominant abiotic factor directly affecting insect pests. Global warming is therefore expected to accelerate the development of plants and insects. Moreover, in the case of multivoltine pest species higher temperatures are expected to lead to the appearance of additional generations toward the end of the warm season. These changes could entail higher pest pressure and hence require an adaptation of pest management, but ultimately this would depend on whether plant and pest phenology remain synchronized or not. In this contribution we present an analysis of potential impacts of climate change on the phenology of the apple tree (Malus pumila L.), a fruit crop of economic relevance worldwide, and the codling moth (Cydia pomonella L.), one of its main pests. Key developmental stages of the apple and the codling moth were simulated by means of two heat summation models. The models were calibrated with lab and field data from Switzerland and subsequently run with observed weather data and various climate change scenarios. The time period between flowering termination and the harvest of the apples was compared to the appearance of the second and third generation of codling moth larvae to study the interlinkage between host and pest. To illustrate the potential for practical applications of the phenology models, we used spatial temperature data of Switzerland to produce risk maps that can serve as a basis for further studies and decision support.

Anthropogenically-induced changes in temperatures and implications for water resources in the western United States.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonfils, C.; Santer, B.; Pierce, D.; Hidalgo, H.; Bala, G.; Dash, T.; Barnett, T.; Cayan, D.; Doutriaux, C.; Wood, A.; Mirin, A.; Nosawa, T.

2008-12-01

Large changes in the hydrology of the western United States have been observed since the mid-20th century. These include a reduction in the amount of precipitation arriving as snow, a decline in snowpack at low and mid-elevations, and a shift towards earlier arrival of both snowmelt and the center of mass of streamflows. In order to project future water supply reliability, it is crucial to obtain a better understanding of the underlying cause or causes for these long-term changes. A regional warming is often posited as the cause of these changes, without formal testing of different competitive explanations for the warming. In this study, we perform a rigorous detection and attribution analysis to determine the causes of the late winter/early spring changes in hydrologically-relevant temperature variables over mountain ranges of the western U.S. Natural internal climate variability, as estimated from two long control climate model simulations, is insufficient to explain the rapid increase in daily minimum and maximum temperatures, the sharp decline in frost days, and the rise in degree-days above 0°C (a simple proxy for temperature-driven snowmelt). The observations are however consistent with climate simulations that include the combined effects of anthropogenic greenhouse gases and aerosols. We also address the benefits of conducting multivariate versus univariate detection and attribution analysis, with, for instance, a focus on changes in snowmelt, streamflow peaks and minimum temperature. With models of climate change unanimously projecting an acceleration of warming in the western United States, serious implications for water infrastructures and water supply sustainability can be expected, increasing already the necessity of developing adaptation measures in water resources management.

Going with the flow: Hydrologic response of middle Lena River (Siberia) to the climate variability and change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gautier, Emmanuèle; Dépret, Thomas; Costard, François; Virmoux, Clément; Fedorov, Alexander; Grancher, Delphine; Konstantinov, Pavel; Brunstein, Daniel

2018-02-01

Recent observations indicate that over the last decades, climate change has increasingly influenced the frequency, intensity and duration of extreme climatic and hydrologic events. The main aim of this study is to determine the hydrologic response, especially the flood evolution, of the Lena River in Eastern Siberia to ongoing climate change. Draining the coldest region of the Northern Hemisphere, the Lena River is impacted by global warming, which is particularly pronounced in periglacial areas characterized by deep and continuous permafrost. We document the hydrologic variability of the Middle Lena River, first by characterizing trend and stationarity of monthly discharges. Second, we analyze on the basis of the peak over threshold method (POT) the temporal evolution of intensity and duration of three discharge classes: bar-full discharge, bank-full discharge and large floods. Finally, we also determined the dates of the flood beginning and of the flood peak. Data on mean monthly discharge and flood peaks are available since 1936 and daily discharges since 1954. Our results provide evidence for a net hydrologic change with an increase in the intensity and duration of floods in the two decades ending in 2012. The frequency of high floods is unprecedented, and small floods no longer occur. The tail of the temporal distribution of the flood peak is also changing. More frequent early floods are occurring in spring with secondary flood peaks in summer, the latest probably represents the most striking change. Furthermore, the changes have been accelerating since 2004. Finally, two islands were instrumented (2008-2012) in order to study the flooding dynamics with a better precision.

Erosional Reduction of an Orogenic Wedge: Structural Response to Neogene Climate Change within the St. Elias Orogen, Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berger, A. L.; Spotila, J. A.; Chapman, J. B.; Pavlis, T. L.; Enkelmann, E.; Buscher, J. T.

2007-12-01

The kinematics and architecture of orogenic systems may be heavily influenced by climate, but little research has focused on the long term effects of glacial erosion on orogenesis. Apatite and zircon (U-Th)/He thermochronometry on >75 bedrock samples across the St. Elias orogen, one of the best examples of a glaciated orogenic wedge, is the basis for a new kinematic model and demonstrates an association between glacial denudation and orogenic architecture. The spatial pattern of low temperature cooling indicates that exhumation and deformation are focused within a thin-skinned fold and thrust belt on the windward flank, whereas the leeward flank of the orogen functions as a deformational backstop. A previously unrecognized structure beneath the Bagley ice field must separate these domains with south-side-up motion. We propose this structure is a backthrust making the orogen doubly-vergent. Suggestive of accelerated backthrust motion in response to climate change, cooling rates within the hanging wall block and across the entire windward flank of the orogen accelerated ten-fold coeval with enhanced glaciation. As backthrust motion increased, glacial unroofing also coincided with a regional shift in deformation away from prominent forethrusts including the North American-Yakutat terrane suture (Chugach St. Elias fault) and the seaward deformation front (Pamplona zone). Across the windward flank of the orogen, exhumation, at rates of up to 5 mm/yr, is focused within a narrow zone, where the glacial equilibrium line altitude (ELA) intersects the orogenic wedge. This zone of rapid exhumation, not present prior to the onset of enhanced glaciation, cuts across the structural trend of the orogen and is more narrowly focused than orographic precipitation. Accelerated denudation at the ELA thus appears to have redistributed strain along a series of forethrusts that lie at the zone of heaviest glacial flux, while the backthrust progressively truncates the southward-vergent forethrusts. In a cause and effect response, the expansion of glaciers therefore appears to have resulted in a narrowing of the orogenic wedge due to increased backthrust motion and a landward propagation of deformation in order to preserve topographic slope. This focusing of long- term glacial erosion and deformation at the ELA matches predictions from analytical models of orogenic wedges (i.e. Tomkin and Braun, 2002) and implies a high degree of coupling between climate and tectonics in this glacially-dominated orogen.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Canbing; Cao, Yijia; Zhang, Mi

There is an increasingly hot debate on whether the replacement of conventional vehicles (CVs) by electric vehicles (EVs) should be delayed or accelerated since EVs require higher cost and cause more pollution than CVs in the manufacturing process. Here we reveal two hidden benefits of EVs for addressing climate change to support the imperative acceleration of replacing CVs with EVs. As EVs emit much less heat than CVs within the same mileage, the replacement can mitigate urban heat island effect (UHIE) to reduce the energy consumption of air conditioners, benefitting local and global climates. To demonstrate these effects brought bymore » the replacement of CVs by EVs, we take Beijing, China, as an example. EVs emit only 19.8% of the total heat emitted by CVs per mile. The replacement of CVs by EVs in 2012 could have mitigated the summer heat island intensity (HII) by about 0.94°C, reduced the amount of electricity consumed daily by air conditioners in buildings by 14.44 million kilowatt-hours (kWh), and reduced daily CO₂ emissions by 10,686 tonnes.« less

Combined effects of global climate change and regional ecosystem drivers on an exploited marine food web.

PubMed

Niiranen, Susa; Yletyinen, Johanna; Tomczak, Maciej T; Blenckner, Thorsten; Hjerne, Olle; Mackenzie, Brian R; Müller-Karulis, Bärbel; Neumann, Thomas; Meier, H E Markus

2013-11-01

Changes in climate, in combination with intensive exploitation of marine resources, have caused large-scale reorganizations in many of the world's marine ecosystems during the past decades. The Baltic Sea in Northern Europe is one of the systems most affected. In addition to being exposed to persistent eutrophication, intensive fishing, and one of the world's fastest rates of warming in the last two decades of the 20th century, accelerated climate change including atmospheric warming and changes in precipitation is projected for this region during the 21st century. Here, we used a new multimodel approach to project how the interaction of climate, nutrient loads, and cod fishing may affect the future of the open Central Baltic Sea food web. Regionally downscaled global climate scenarios were, in combination with three nutrient load scenarios, used to drive an ensemble of three regional biogeochemical models (BGMs). An Ecopath with Ecosim food web model was then forced with the BGM results from different nutrient-climate scenarios in combination with two different cod fishing scenarios. The results showed that regional management is likely to play a major role in determining the future of the Baltic Sea ecosystem. By the end of the 21st century, for example, the combination of intensive cod fishing and high nutrient loads projected a strongly eutrophicated and sprat-dominated ecosystem, whereas low cod fishing in combination with low nutrient loads resulted in a cod-dominated ecosystem with eutrophication levels close to present. Also, nonlinearities were observed in the sensitivity of different trophic groups to nutrient loads or fishing depending on the combination of the two. Finally, many climate variables and species biomasses were projected to levels unseen in the past. Hence, the risk for ecological surprises needs to be addressed, particularly when the results are discussed in the ecosystem-based management context. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climate change: the evidence and our options.

PubMed

Thompson, Lonnie G

2010-01-01

Glaciers serve as early indicators of climate change. Over the last 35 years, our research team has recovered ice-core records of climatic and environmental variations from the polar regions and from low-latitude high-elevation ice fields from 16 countries. The ongoing widespread melting of high-elevation glaciers and ice caps, particularly in low to middle latitudes, provides some of the strongest evidence to date that a large-scale, pervasive, and, in some cases, rapid change in Earth's climate system is underway. This paper highlights observations of 20th and 21st century glacier shrinkage in the Andes, the Himalayas, and on Mount Kilimanjaro. Ice cores retrieved from shrinking glaciers around the world confirm their continuous existence for periods ranging from hundreds of years to multiple millennia, suggesting that climatological conditions that dominate those regions today are different from those under which these ice fields originally accumulated and have been sustained. The current warming is therefore unusual when viewed from the millennial perspective provided by multiple lines of proxy evidence and the 160-year record of direct temperature measurements. Despite all this evidence, plus the well-documented continual increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, societies have taken little action to address this global-scale problem. Hence, the rate of global carbon dioxide emissions continues to accelerate. As a result of our inaction, we have three options: mitigation, adaptation, and suffering.

Climate Change: The Evidence and Our Options

PubMed Central

Thompson, Lonnie G

2010-01-01

Glaciers serve as early indicators of climate change. Over the last 35 years, our research team has recovered ice-core records of climatic and environmental variations from the polar regions and from low-latitude high-elevation ice fields from 16 countries. The ongoing widespread melting of high-elevation glaciers and ice caps, particularly in low to middle latitudes, provides some of the strongest evidence to date that a large-scale, pervasive, and, in some cases, rapid change in Earth's climate system is underway. This paper highlights observations of 20th and 21st century glacier shrinkage in the Andes, the Himalayas, and on Mount Kilimanjaro. Ice cores retrieved from shrinking glaciers around the world confirm their continuous existence for periods ranging from hundreds of years to multiple millennia, suggesting that climatological conditions that dominate those regions today are different from those under which these ice fields originally accumulated and have been sustained. The current warming is therefore unusual when viewed from the millennial perspective provided by multiple lines of proxy evidence and the 160-year record of direct temperature measurements. Despite all this evidence, plus the well-documented continual increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, societies have taken little action to address this global-scale problem. Hence, the rate of global carbon dioxide emissions continues to accelerate. As a result of our inaction, we have three options: mitigation, adaptation, and suffering. PMID:22532707

Data-Driven Synthesis for Investigating Food Systems Resilience to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Magliocca, N. R.; Hart, D.; Hondula, K. L.; Munoz, I.; Shelley, M.; Smorul, M.

2014-12-01

The production, supply, and distribution of our food involves a complex set of interactions between farmers, rural communities, governments, and global commodity markets that link important issues such as environmental quality, agricultural science and technology, health and nutrition, rural livelihoods, and social institutions and equality - all of which will be affected by climate change. The production of actionable science is thus urgently needed to inform and prepare the public for the consequences of climate change for local and global food systems. Access to data that spans multiple sectors/domains and spatial and temporal scales is key to beginning to tackle such complex issues. As part of the White House's Climate Data Initiative, the USDA and the National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center (SESYNC) are launching a new collaboration to catalyze data-driven research to enhance food systems resilience to climate change. To support this collaboration, SESYNC is developing a new "Data to Motivate Synthesis" program designed to engage early career scholars in a highly interactive and dynamic process of real-time data discovery, analysis, and visualization to catalyze new research questions and analyses that would not have otherwise been possible and/or apparent. This program will be supported by an integrated, spatially-enabled cyberinfrastructure that enables the management, intersection, and analysis of large heterogeneous datasets relevant to food systems resilience to climate change. Our approach is to create a series of geospatial abstraction data structures and visualization services that can be used to accelerate analysis and visualization across various socio-economic and environmental datasets (e.g., reconcile census data with remote sensing raster datasets). We describe the application of this approach with a pilot workshop of socio-environmental scholars that will lay the groundwork for the larger SESYNC-USDA collaboration. We discuss the particular challenges of supporting an integrated, repeatable workflow for socio-environmental data synthesis, and the advantages and limitations to using data as a launching point for interdisciplinary research projects.

The effects of land cover and land use change on the contemporary carbon balance of the arctic and boreal terrestrial ecosystems of northern Eurasia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hayes, Daniel J.; McGuire, A. David; Kicklighter, David W.; Burnside , Todd J.; Melillo, Jerry M.

2010-01-01

Recent changes in climate, disturbance regimes and land use and management systems in Northern Eurasia have the potential to disrupt the terrestrial sink of atmospheric CO2 in a way that accelerates global climate change. To determine the recent trends in the carbon balance of the arctic and boreal ecosystems of this region, we performed a retrospective analysis of terrestrial carbon dynamics across northern Eurasia over a recent 10-year period using a terrestrial biogeochemical process model. The results of the simulations suggest a shift in direction of the net flux from the terrestrial sink of earlier decades to a net source on the order of 45 Tg C year−1between 1997 and 2006. The simulation framework and subsequent analyses presented in this study attribute this shift to a large loss of carbon from boreal forest ecosystems, which experienced a trend of decreasing precipitation and a large area burned during this time period.

In situ carbon turnover dynamics and the role of soil microorganisms therein: a climate warming study in an Alpine ecosystem.

PubMed

Djukic, Ika; Zehetner, Franz; Watzinger, Andrea; Horacek, Micha; Gerzabek, Martin H

2013-01-01

Litter decomposition represents one of the largest fluxes in the global terrestrial carbon cycle. The aim of this study was to improve our understanding of the factors governing decomposition in alpine ecosystems and how their responses to changing environmental conditions change over time. Our study area stretches over an elevation gradient of 1000 m on the Hochschwab massif in the Northern Limestone Alps of Austria. We used high-to-low elevation soil translocation to simulate the combined effects of changing climatic conditions, shifting vegetation zones, and altered snow cover regimes. In original and translocated soils, we conducted in situ decomposition experiments with maize litter and studied carbon turnover dynamics as well as temporal response patterns of the pathways of carbon during microbial decomposition over a 2-year incubation period. A simulated mean annual soil warming (through down-slope translocation) of 1.5 and 2.7 °C, respectively, resulted in a significantly accelerated turnover of added maize carbon. Changes in substrate quantity and quality in the course of the decomposition appeared to have less influence on the microbial community composition and its substrate utilization than the prevailing environmental/site conditions, to which the microbial community adapted quickly upon change. In general, microbial community composition and function significantly affected substrate decomposition rates only in the later stage of decomposition when the differentiation in substrate use among the microbial groups became more evident. Our study demonstrated that rising temperatures in alpine ecosystems may accelerate decomposition of litter carbon and also lead to a rapid adaptation of the microbial communities to the new environmental conditions. © 2012 Federation of European Microbiological Societies. Published by Blackwell Publishing Ltd. All rights reserved.

Aeolian processes during the Holocene in Gannan Region, Eastern Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, S.; Cheng, T.; Li, S.; Liang, M.

2016-12-01

Aeolian desertification occurring in the Tibetan Plateau has received attention recently for it has become a severe environmental problem by accelerating the grassland degradation and eco-environment damage. The Gannan Region is located in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau with a mean altitude of 3500m. It is highly sensitive to global environmental change and human disturbance. Serious soil erosion and desertification and extensive land degradation have caused heavy eco-environmental impacts. To investigate the evolution of the desertification in Holocene in the Plateau is of great importance for understanding the desertification trend under the global changes in the Tibetan Plateau. Loess and aeolian sands is a key geological archive related to desertification processes and the past environment changes. In this study a typical 8.5m-thick loess-sands profile named MQQ, was selected at the Maqu city. It is situated on the first terrace (T1) of the Yellow River. Detailed accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) 14C dating of bulk organic matter content has shown the Aeolian sediments of the MQQ section occurring since the early Holocene. the mass-specific frequency-dependent magnetic susceptibility (χfd) and grainsize records show a clear upward increase in the contents of superparamagnetic grains and fine fractions in grain size, which indicates a gradual wetting trend during the Holocene.The sediment rates change from very high in the early Holocene to low values after 8.2 ka. The wetting process can be divided into three steps: 10.0-8.2 ka, 8.2-3.0 ka and 3.0-present. It indicates that the climate in the eastern Tibetan Plateau was dry during the early Holocene. After that the climate was getting wet gradually. The variations of the westerlies and the Asian monsoon may cause the environmental change in this region.

Effects of habitat and climate change on blackbird populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Forcey, Greg M.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.

2017-01-01

Global biodiversity loss is proceeding at an accelerating pace (Newbold et al. 2015, 2016) in large part due to land use and, climate change, and associated spread of disease and non-native species (Hobbs et al. 2006, Williams and Jackson 2007, Ellis 2011, Radeloff et al. 2015). Over the last century, U.S. average temperature has increased 0.7–1.1°C, leading to an increased frost-free season, more frequent and intense heat waves, and increased frequency and intensity of winter storms; mean precipitation has increased, with increases in heavy downpours (Melillo et al. 2014). The dominant land uses in the U.S. are lands devoted to forest (671 million acres; 30%), pasture/range (614 million acres, 27%), and agriculture (408 million acres, 18%) (Economic Research Service 2011). Martinuzzi et al. (2015) projected changes in land use to the middle of the 21st century and found that at least 11% of the U.S. land cover (an area larger than Texas) was expected to change cover class (Figure 1). At the same time, mean temperature is expected to further increase 1.1–1.7°C by mid-century and 2.2–3.9°C by end-of-century (Melillo et al. 2014). In this age of unprecedented human-induced environmental change, understanding the relationships of species to the habitat and climatic conditions they experience is crucial to conservation and management. Improved understanding of relationships with habitat and climate will better inform management decisions designed to reduce crop depredation caused by blackbirds.

Phenological adjustment in arctic bird species: relative importance of snow melt and ecological factors

USGS Publications Warehouse

Liebezeit, Joseph R.; Gurney, K. E. B.; Budde, Michael E.; Zack, Steve; Ward, David H.

2014-01-01

Previous studies have documented advancement in clutch initiation dates (CIDs) in response to climate change, most notably for temperate-breeding passerines. Despite accelerated climate change in the Arctic, few studies have examined nest phenology shifts in arctic breeding species. We investigated whether CIDs have advanced for the most abundant breeding shorebird and passerine species at a long-term monitoring site in arctic Alaska. We pooled data from three additional nearby sites to determine the explanatory power of snow melt and ecological variables (predator abundance, green-up) on changes in breeding phenology. As predicted, all species (semipalmated sandpiper, Calidris pusilla, pectoral sandpiper, Calidris melanotos, red-necked phalarope, Phalaropus lobatus, red phalarope, Phalaropus fulicarius, Lapland longspur, Calcarius lapponicus) exhibited advanced CIDs ranging from 0.40 to 0.80 days/year over 9 years. Timing of snow melt was the most important variable in explaining clutch initiation advancement (“climate/snow hypothesis”) for four of the five species, while green-up was a much less important explanatory factor. We found no evidence that high predator abundances led to earlier laying dates (“predator/re-nest hypothesis”). Our results support previous arctic studies in that climate change in the cryosphere will have a strong impact on nesting phenology although factors explaining changes in nest phenology are not necessarily uniform across the entire Arctic. Our results suggest some arctic-breeding shorebird and passerine species are altering their breeding phenology to initiate nesting earlier enabling them to, at least temporarily, avoid the negative consequences of a trophic mismatch.

Asylum applications respond to temperature fluctuations.

PubMed

Missirian, Anouch; Schlenker, Wolfram

2017-12-22

International negotiations on climate change, along with recent upsurges in migration across the Mediterranean Sea, have highlighted the need to better understand the possible effects of climate change on human migration-in particular, across national borders. Here we examine how, in the recent past (2000-2014), weather variations in 103 source countries translated into asylum applications to the European Union, which averaged 351,000 per year in our sample. We find that temperatures that deviated from the moderate optimum (~20°C) increased asylum applications in a nonlinear fashion, which implies an accelerated increase under continued future warming. Holding everything else constant, asylum applications by the end of the century are predicted to increase, on average, by 28% (98,000 additional asylum applications per year) under representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenario 4.5 and by 188% (660,000 additional applications per year) under RCP 8.5 for the 21 climate models in the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP). Copyright © 2017 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.

Drought-induced shift of a forest–woodland ecotone: Rapid landscape response to climate variation

PubMed Central

Allen, Craig D.; Breshears, David D.

1998-01-01

In coming decades, global climate changes are expected to produce large shifts in vegetation distributions at unprecedented rates. These shifts are expected to be most rapid and extreme at ecotones, the boundaries between ecosystems, particularly those in semiarid landscapes. However, current models do not adequately provide for such rapid effects—particularly those caused by mortality—largely because of the lack of data from field studies. Here we report the most rapid landscape-scale shift of a woody ecotone ever documented: in northern New Mexico in the 1950s, the ecotone between semiarid ponderosa pine forest and piñon–juniper woodland shifted extensively (2 km or more) and rapidly (<5 years) through mortality of ponderosa pines in response to a severe drought. This shift has persisted for 40 years. Forest patches within the shift zone became much more fragmented, and soil erosion greatly accelerated. The rapidity and the complex dynamics of the persistent shift point to the need to represent more accurately these dynamics, especially the mortality factor, in assessments of the effects of climate change. PMID:9843976

Drought-induced shift of a forest-woodland ecotone: Rapid landscape response to climate variation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Allen, Craig D.; Breshears, David D.

1998-01-01

In coming decades, global climate changes are expected to produce large shifts in vegetation distributions at unprecedented rates. These shifts are expected to be most rapid and extreme at ecotones, the boundaries between ecosystems, particularly those in semiarid landscapes. However, current models do not adequately provide for such rapid effects—particularly those caused by mortality—largely because of the lack of data from field studies. Here we report the most rapid landscape-scale shift of a woody ecotone ever documented: in northern New Mexico in the 1950s, the ecotone between semiarid ponderosa pine forest and piñon–juniper woodland shifted extensively (2 km or more) and rapidly (<5 years) through mortality of ponderosa pines in response to a severe drought. This shift has persisted for 40 years. Forest patches within the shift zone became much more fragmented, and soil erosion greatly accelerated. The rapidity and the complex dynamics of the persistent shift point to the need to represent more accurately these dynamics, especially the mortality factor, in assessments of the effects of climate change.

Competition and facilitation may lead to asymmetric range shift dynamics with climate change.

PubMed

Ettinger, Ailene; HilleRisLambers, Janneke

2017-09-01

Forecasts of widespread range shifts with climate change stem from assumptions that climate drives species' distributions. However, local adaptation and biotic interactions also influence range limits and thus may impact range shifts. Despite the potential importance of these factors, few studies have directly tested their effects on performance at range limits. We address how population-level variation and biotic interactions may affect range shifts by transplanting seeds and seedlings of western North American conifers of different origin populations into different competitive neighborhoods within and beyond their elevational ranges and monitoring their performance. We find evidence that competition with neighboring trees limits performance within current ranges, but that interactions between adults and juveniles switch from competitive to facilitative at upper range limits. Local adaptation had weaker effects on performance that did not predictably vary with range position or seed origin. Our findings suggest that competitive interactions may slow species turnover within forests at lower range limits, whereas facilitative interactions may accelerate the pace of tree expansions upward near timberline. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climate control of terrestrial carbon exchange across biomes and continents

Treesearch

Chuixiang Yi; Daniel Ricciuto; Runze Li; John Wolbeck; Xiyan Xu; Mats Nilsson; John Frank; William J. Massman

2010-01-01

Understanding the relationships between climate and carbon exchange by terrestrial ecosystems is critical to predict future levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide because of the potential accelerating effects of positive climate-carbon cycle feedbacks. However, directly observed relationships between climate and terrestrial CO2 exchange with the atmosphere across biomes...

Changes in the seasonality of Arctic sea ice and temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bintanja, R.

2012-04-01

Observations show that the Arctic sea ice cover is currently declining as a result of climate warming. According to climate models, this retreat will continue and possibly accelerate in the near-future. However, the magnitude of this decline is not the same throughout the year. With temperatures near or above the freezing point, summertime Arctic sea ice will quickly diminish. However, at temperatures well below freezing, the sea ice cover during winter will exhibit a much weaker decline. In the future, the sea ice seasonal cycle will be no ice in summer, and thin one-year ice in winter. Hence, the seasonal cycle in sea ice cover will increase with ongoing climate warming. This in itself leads to an increased summer-winter contrast in surface air temperature, because changes in sea ice have a dominant influence on Arctic temperature and its seasonality. Currently, the annual amplitude in air temperature is decreasing, however, because winters warm faster than summer. With ongoing summer sea ice reductions there will come a time when the annual temperature amplitude will increase again because of the large seasonal changes in sea ice. This suggests that changes in the seasonal cycle in Arctic sea ice and temperature are closely, and intricately, connected. Future changes in Arctic seasonality (will) have an profound effect on flora, fauna, humans and economic activities.

Twentieth century bipolar seesaw of the Arctic and Antarctic surface air temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chylek, Petr; Folland, Chris K.; Lesins, Glen; Dubey, Manvendra K.

2010-04-01

Understanding the phase relationship between climate changes in the Arctic and Antarctic regions is essential for our understanding of the dynamics of the Earth's climate system. In this paper we show that the 20th century de-trended Arctic and Antarctic temperatures vary in anti-phase seesaw pattern - when the Arctic warms the Antarctica cools and visa versa. This is the first time that a bi-polar seesaw pattern has been identified in the 20th century Arctic and Antarctic temperature records. The Arctic (Antarctic) de-trended temperatures are highly correlated (anti-correlated) with the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) index suggesting the Atlantic Ocean as a possible link between the climate variability of the Arctic and Antarctic regions. Recent accelerated warming of the Arctic results from a positive reinforcement of the linear warming trend (due to an increasing concentration of greenhouse gases and other possible forcings) by the warming phase of the multidecadal climate variability (due to fluctuations of the Atlantic Ocean circulation).

Potential Climate Change Impacts on the Built Environment in the United States and Implications for Sustainability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quattrochi, D.

2012-12-01

The built environment consists of components that have been made by humans at a range of scales from small (e.g., houses, shopping malls) to large (e.g., transportation networks) to highly modified landscapes such as cities. The impacts of climate change on the built environment, therefore, may have a multitude of effects on humans and the land. The impact of climate change may be exacerbated by the interaction of different events that singly may be minor, but together may have a synergistic set of impacts that are significant. Also, there may be feedback mechanisms wherein the built environment, particularly in the form of cities, may affect weather and the climate on local and regional scales. Besides having a host of such interactions, the impacts of climate change on urban areas will likely have thresholds, below which effects are incidental or of mild consequence, but beyond which the effects quickly become major. Hence, a city may be able to cope with prolonged heat waves, but if this is combined with severe drought, the overall result could be significant or even catastrophic, as accelerating demand for energy to cooling taxes water supplies needed both for energy supply and municipal water needs. Moreover, urban areas may be affected by changes in daily and seasonal high or low temperatures or precipitation, which may have a much more prolonged impact than the direct effect of these events. Thus, the cumulative impacts of multiple events may be more severe than those of any single event. Primary hazards include sea level rise and coastal storms, heat waves, intense precipitation, drought, extreme wind events, urban heat islands, and secondary air pollutants, and cold air events including frozen precipitation. Indicators need to be developed to provide a consistent, objective, and transparent overview of major variations in climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation activities. Overall, indicators of climate change on the built environment should: 1) provide meaningful, authoritative climate-relevant measures about the status, rates, and trends of key physical, ecological, and societal variables and values to inform decisions on management, research, and education at regional to national scales; 2) identify climate-related conditions and impacts to help develop effective mitigation and adaptation measures and reduce costs of management; and 3) document and communicate the climate-driven dynamic nature and condition of Earth's systems and societies, and provide a coordinated. This presentation will provide an overview of possible climate impacts on the built environment. Also, given that spatial analysis and remote sensing techniques will be of paramount importance in assessing these impacts and in preparing adaptation strategies, the presentation will provide examples of how these techniques can be used to identify potential impacts of climate change on the built environment.

Anticipating Future Extreme Climate Events for Alaska Using Dynamical Downscaling and Quantile Mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lader, R.; Walsh, J. E.

2016-12-01

Alaska is projected to experience major changes in extreme climate during the 21st century, due to greenhouse warming and exacerbated by polar amplification, wherein the Arctic is warming at twice the rate compared to the Northern Hemisphere. Given its complex topography, Alaska displays extreme gradients of temperature and precipitation. However, global climate models (GCMs), which typically have a spatial resolution on the order of 100km, struggle to replicate these extremes. To help resolve this issue, this study employs dynamically downscaled regional climate simulations and quantile-mapping methodologies to provide a full suite of daily model variables at 20 km spatial resolution for Alaska, from 1970 to 2100. These data include downscaled products of the: ERA-Interim reanalysis from 1979 to 2015, GFDL-CM3 historical from 1970 to 2005, and GFDL-CM3 RCP 8.5 from 2006 to 2100. Due to the limited nature of long-term observations and high-resolution modeling in Alaska, these data enable a broad expansion of extremes analysis. This study uses these data to highlight a subset of the 27 climate extremes indices, previously defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices, as they pertain to climate change in Alaska. These indices are based on the statistical distributions of daily surface temperature and precipitation and focus on threshold exceedance, and percentiles. For example, the annual number of days with a daily maximum temperature greater than 25°C is anticipated to triple in many locations in Alaska by the end of the century. Climate extremes can also refer to long duration events, such as the record-setting warmth that defined the 2015-16 cold season in Alaska. The downscaled climate model simulations indicate that this past winter will be considered normal by as early as the mid-2040s, if we continue to warm according to the business-as-usual RCP 8.5 emissions scenario. This represents an accelerated warming as compared to projections form the coarse scale GCMs, and this greater rate of change in the downscaled products is noted with other extremes indices as well.

Rates of speciation in the fossil record

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sepkoski, J. J. Jr; Sepkoski JJ, J. r. (Principal Investigator)

1998-01-01

Data from palaeontology and biodiversity suggest that the global biota should produce an average of three new species per year. However, the fossil record shows large variation around this mean. Rates of origination have declined through the Phanerozoic. This appears to have been largely a function of sorting among higher taxa (especially classes), which exhibit characteristic rates of speciation (and extinction) that differ among them by nearly an order of magnitude. Secular decline of origination rates is hardly constant, however; many positive deviations reflect accelerated speciation during rebounds from mass extinctions. There has also been general decline in rates of speciation within major taxa through their histories, although rates have tended to remain higher among members in tropical regions. Finally, pulses of speciation appear sometimes to be associated with climate change, although moderate oscillations of climate do not necessarily promote speciation despite forcing changes in species' geographical ranges.

Public Health and Mental Health Implications of Environmentally Induced Forced Migration.

PubMed

Shultz, James M; Rechkemmer, Andreas; Rai, Abha; McManus, Katherine T

2018-03-28

ABSTRACTClimate change is increasingly forcing population displacement, better described by the phrase environmentally induced forced migration. Rising global temperatures, rising sea levels, increasing frequency and severity of natural disasters, and progressive depletion of life-sustaining resources are among the drivers that stimulate population mobility. Projections forecast that current trends will rapidly accelerate. This will lead to an estimated 200 million climate migrants by the year 2050 and create dangerous tipping points for public health and security.Among the public health consequences of climate change, environmentally induced forced migration is one of the harshest and most harmful outcomes, always involving a multiplicity of profound resource and social losses and frequently exposing migrants to trauma and violence. Therefore, one particular aspect of forced migration, the effects of population displacement on mental health and psychosocial functioning, deserves dedicated focus. Multiple case examples are provided to elucidate this theme. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2018;page 1 of 7).

Circumpolar distribution and carbon storage of thermokarst landscapes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Olefeldt, David; Goswami, S.; Grosse, G.; Hayes, D.; Hugelius, G.; Kuhry, P.; McGuire, A. David; Romanovsky, V.E.; Sannel, A.B.K.; Schuur, E.A.G.; Turetsky, M.R.

2016-01-01

Thermokarst is the process whereby the thawing of ice-rich permafrost ground causes land subsidence, resulting in development of distinctive landforms. Accelerated thermokarst due to climate change will damage infrastructure, but also impact hydrology, ecology and biogeochemistry. Here, we present a circumpolar assessment of the distribution of thermokarst landscapes, defined as landscapes comprised of current thermokarst landforms and areas susceptible to future thermokarst development. At 3.6 × 106 km2, thermokarst landscapes are estimated to cover ∼20% of the northern permafrost region, with approximately equal contributions from three landscape types where characteristic wetland, lake and hillslope thermokarst landforms occur. We estimate that approximately half of the below-ground organic carbon within the study region is stored in thermokarst landscapes. Our results highlight the importance of explicitly considering thermokarst when assessing impacts of climate change, including future landscape greenhouse gas emissions, and provide a means for assessing such impacts at the circumpolar scale.

OpenNEX, a private-public partnership in support of the national climate assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nemani, R. R.; Wang, W.; Michaelis, A.; Votava, P.; Ganguly, S.

2016-12-01

The NASA Earth Exchange (NEX) is a collaborative computing platform that has been developed with the objective of bringing scientists together with the software tools, massive global datasets, and supercomputing resources necessary to accelerate research in Earth systems science and global change. NEX is funded as an enabling tool for sustaining the national climate assessment. Over the past five years, researchers have used the NEX platform and produced a number of data sets highly relevant to the National Climate Assessment. These include high-resolution climate projections using different downscaling techniques and trends in historical climate from satellite data. To enable a broader community in exploiting the above datasets, the NEX team partnered with public cloud providers to create the OpenNEX platform. OpenNEX provides ready access to NEX data holdings on a number of public cloud platforms along with pertinent analysis tools and workflows in the form of Machine Images and Docker Containers, lectures and tutorials by experts. We will showcase some of the applications of OpenNEX data and tools by the community on Amazon Web Services, Google Cloud and the NEX Sandbox.

Amplification and dampening of soil respiration by changes in temperature variability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sierra, C.A.; Harmon, M.E.; Thomann, E.; Perakis, S.S.; Loescher, H.W.

2011-01-01

Accelerated release of carbon from soils is one of the most important feed backs related to anthropogenically induced climate change. Studies addressing the mechanisms for soil carbon release through organic matter decomposition have focused on the effect of changes in the average temperature, with little attention to changes in temperature vari-ability. Anthropogenic activities are likely to modify both the average state and the variability of the climatic system; therefore, the effects of future warming on decomposition should not only focus on trends in the average temperature, but also variability expressed as a change of the probability distribution of temperature.Using analytical and numerical analyses we tested common relationships between temperature and respiration and found that the variability of temperature plays an important role determining respiration rates of soil organic matter. Changes in temperature variability, without changes in the average temperature, can affect the amount of carbon released through respiration over the long term. Furthermore, simultaneous changes in the average and variance of temperature can either amplify or dampen there release of carbon through soil respiration as climate regimes change. The effects depend on the degree of convexity of the relationship between temperature and respiration and the magnitude of the change in temperature variance. A potential consequence of this effect of variability would be higher respiration in regions where both the mean and variance of temperature are expected to increase, such as in some low latitude regions; and lower amounts of respiration where the average temperature is expected to increase and the variance to decrease, such as in northern high latitudes.

Long-Term Warming Alters Carbohydrate Degradation Potential in Temperate Forest Soils.

PubMed

Pold, Grace; Billings, Andrew F; Blanchard, Jeff L; Burkhardt, Daniel B; Frey, Serita D; Melillo, Jerry M; Schnabel, Julia; van Diepen, Linda T A; DeAngelis, Kristen M

2016-11-15

As Earth's climate warms, soil carbon pools and the microbial communities that process them may change, altering the way in which carbon is recycled in soil. In this study, we used a combination of metagenomics and bacterial cultivation to evaluate the hypothesis that experimentally raising soil temperatures by 5°C for 5, 8, or 20 years increased the potential for temperate forest soil microbial communities to degrade carbohydrates. Warming decreased the proportion of carbohydrate-degrading genes in the organic horizon derived from eukaryotes and increased the fraction of genes in the mineral soil associated with Actinobacteria in all studies. Genes associated with carbohydrate degradation increased in the organic horizon after 5 years of warming but had decreased in the organic horizon after warming the soil continuously for 20 years. However, a greater proportion of the 295 bacteria from 6 phyla (10 classes, 14 orders, and 34 families) isolated from heated plots in the 20-year experiment were able to depolymerize cellulose and xylan than bacterial isolates from control soils. Together, these findings indicate that the enrichment of bacteria capable of degrading carbohydrates could be important for accelerated carbon cycling in a warmer world. The massive carbon stocks currently held in soils have been built up over millennia, and while numerous lines of evidence indicate that climate change will accelerate the processing of this carbon, it is unclear whether the genetic repertoire of the microbes responsible for this elevated activity will also change. In this study, we showed that bacteria isolated from plots subject to 20 years of 5°C of warming were more likely to depolymerize the plant polymers xylan and cellulose, but that carbohydrate degradation capacity is not uniformly enriched by warming treatment in the metagenomes of soil microbial communities. This study illustrates the utility of combining culture-dependent and culture-independent surveys of microbial communities to improve our understanding of the role changing microbial communities may play in soil carbon cycling under climate change. Copyright © 2016 Pold et al.

The ocean's role in polar climate change: asymmetric Arctic and Antarctic responses to greenhouse gas and ozone forcing

PubMed Central

Marshall, John; Armour, Kyle C.; Scott, Jeffery R.; Kostov, Yavor; Hausmann, Ute; Ferreira, David; Shepherd, Theodore G.; Bitz, Cecilia M.

2014-01-01

In recent decades, the Arctic has been warming and sea ice disappearing. By contrast, the Southern Ocean around Antarctica has been (mainly) cooling and sea-ice extent growing. We argue here that interhemispheric asymmetries in the mean ocean circulation, with sinking in the northern North Atlantic and upwelling around Antarctica, strongly influence the sea-surface temperature (SST) response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing, accelerating warming in the Arctic while delaying it in the Antarctic. Furthermore, while the amplitude of GHG forcing has been similar at the poles, significant ozone depletion only occurs over Antarctica. We suggest that the initial response of SST around Antarctica to ozone depletion is one of cooling and only later adds to the GHG-induced warming trend as upwelling of sub-surface warm water associated with stronger surface westerlies impacts surface properties. We organize our discussion around ‘climate response functions’ (CRFs), i.e. the response of the climate to ‘step’ changes in anthropogenic forcing in which GHG and/or ozone-hole forcing is abruptly turned on and the transient response of the climate revealed and studied. Convolutions of known or postulated GHG and ozone-hole forcing functions with their respective CRFs then yield the transient forced SST response (implied by linear response theory), providing a context for discussion of the differing warming/cooling trends in the Arctic and Antarctic. We speculate that the period through which we are now passing may be one in which the delayed warming of SST associated with GHG forcing around Antarctica is largely cancelled by the cooling effects associated with the ozone hole. By mid-century, however, ozone-hole effects may instead be adding to GHG warming around Antarctica but with diminished amplitude as the ozone hole heals. The Arctic, meanwhile, responding to GHG forcing but in a manner amplified by ocean heat transport, may continue to warm at an accelerating rate. PMID:24891392

The ocean's role in polar climate change: asymmetric Arctic and Antarctic responses to greenhouse gas and ozone forcing.

PubMed

Marshall, John; Armour, Kyle C; Scott, Jeffery R; Kostov, Yavor; Hausmann, Ute; Ferreira, David; Shepherd, Theodore G; Bitz, Cecilia M

2014-07-13

In recent decades, the Arctic has been warming and sea ice disappearing. By contrast, the Southern Ocean around Antarctica has been (mainly) cooling and sea-ice extent growing. We argue here that interhemispheric asymmetries in the mean ocean circulation, with sinking in the northern North Atlantic and upwelling around Antarctica, strongly influence the sea-surface temperature (SST) response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing, accelerating warming in the Arctic while delaying it in the Antarctic. Furthermore, while the amplitude of GHG forcing has been similar at the poles, significant ozone depletion only occurs over Antarctica. We suggest that the initial response of SST around Antarctica to ozone depletion is one of cooling and only later adds to the GHG-induced warming trend as upwelling of sub-surface warm water associated with stronger surface westerlies impacts surface properties. We organize our discussion around 'climate response functions' (CRFs), i.e. the response of the climate to 'step' changes in anthropogenic forcing in which GHG and/or ozone-hole forcing is abruptly turned on and the transient response of the climate revealed and studied. Convolutions of known or postulated GHG and ozone-hole forcing functions with their respective CRFs then yield the transient forced SST response (implied by linear response theory), providing a context for discussion of the differing warming/cooling trends in the Arctic and Antarctic. We speculate that the period through which we are now passing may be one in which the delayed warming of SST associated with GHG forcing around Antarctica is largely cancelled by the cooling effects associated with the ozone hole. By mid-century, however, ozone-hole effects may instead be adding to GHG warming around Antarctica but with diminished amplitude as the ozone hole heals. The Arctic, meanwhile, responding to GHG forcing but in a manner amplified by ocean heat transport, may continue to warm at an accelerating rate.

Climate and carbon cycle changes from 1850 to 2100 in MPI-ESM simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giorgetta, Marco A.; Jungclaus, Johann; Reick, Christian H.; Legutke, Stephanie; Bader, Jürgen; Böttinger, Michael; Brovkin, Victor; Crueger, Traute; Esch, Monika; Fieg, Kerstin; Glushak, Ksenia; Gayler, Veronika; Haak, Helmuth; Hollweg, Heinz-Dieter; Ilyina, Tatiana; Kinne, Stefan; Kornblueh, Luis; Matei, Daniela; Mauritsen, Thorsten; Mikolajewicz, Uwe; Mueller, Wolfgang; Notz, Dirk; Pithan, Felix; Raddatz, Thomas; Rast, Sebastian; Redler, Rene; Roeckner, Erich; Schmidt, Hauke; Schnur, Reiner; Segschneider, Joachim; Six, Katharina D.; Stockhause, Martina; Timmreck, Claudia; Wegner, Jörg; Widmann, Heinrich; Wieners, Karl-H.; Claussen, Martin; Marotzke, Jochem; Stevens, Bjorn

2013-07-01

The new Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) is used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) in a series of climate change experiments for either idealized CO2-only forcing or forcings based on observations and the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. The paper gives an overview of the model configurations, experiments related forcings, and initialization procedures and presents results for the simulated changes in climate and carbon cycle. It is found that the climate feedback depends on the global warming and possibly the forcing history. The global warming from climatological 1850 conditions to 2080-2100 ranges from 1.5°C under the RCP2.6 scenario to 4.4°C under the RCP8.5 scenario. Over this range, the patterns of temperature and precipitation change are nearly independent of the global warming. The model shows a tendency to reduce the ocean heat uptake efficiency toward a warmer climate, and hence acceleration in warming in the later years. The precipitation sensitivity can be as high as 2.5% K-1 if the CO2 concentration is constant, or as small as 1.6% K-1, if the CO2 concentration is increasing. The oceanic uptake of anthropogenic carbon increases over time in all scenarios, being smallest in the experiment forced by RCP2.6 and largest in that for RCP8.5. The land also serves as a net carbon sink in all scenarios, predominantly in boreal regions. The strong tropical carbon sources found in the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 experiments are almost absent in the RCP4.5 experiment, which can be explained by reforestation in the RCP4.5 scenario.

Cloud Response to Arctic Sea Ice Loss and Implications for Feedbacks in the CESM1 Climate Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morrison, A.; Kay, J. E.; Chepfer, H.; Guzman, R.; Bonazzola, M.

2017-12-01

Clouds have the potential to accelerate or slow the rate of Arctic sea ice loss through their radiative influence on the surface. Cloud feedbacks can therefore play into Arctic warming as clouds respond to changes in sea ice cover. As the Arctic moves toward an ice-free state, understanding how cloud - sea ice relationships change in response to sea ice loss is critical for predicting the future climate trajectory. From satellite observations we know the effect of present-day sea ice cover on clouds, but how will clouds respond to sea ice loss as the Arctic transitions to a seasonally open water state? In this study we use a lidar simulator to first evaluate cloud - sea ice relationships in the Community Earth System Model (CESM1) against present-day observations (2006-2015). In the current climate, the cloud response to sea ice is well-represented in CESM1: we see no summer cloud response to changes in sea ice cover, but more fall clouds over open water than over sea ice. Since CESM1 is credible for the current Arctic climate, we next assess if our process-based understanding of Arctic cloud feedbacks related to sea ice loss is relevant for understanding future Arctic clouds. In the future Arctic, summer cloud structure continues to be insensitive to surface conditions. As the Arctic warms in the fall, however, the boundary layer deepens and cloud fraction increases over open ocean during each consecutive decade from 2020 - 2100. This study will also explore seasonal changes in cloud properties such as opacity and liquid water path. Results thus far suggest that a positive fall cloud - sea ice feedback exists in the present-day and future Arctic climate.

Climate change impact on the discharge in meso-scale catchments and consequences for the hydropower-production in Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rössler, Ole; Hänggi, Pascal; Köplin, Nina; Meyer, Rapahel; Schädler, Bruno; Weingartner, Rolf

2013-04-01

The potential effect of climate change on hydrology is the acceleration of the hydrological cycle that in turn will likely cause changes in the discharge regime. As a result, socio-economic systems (e.g., tourism, hydropower industry) may be drastically affected. In this study, we comprehensively analyzed the effect of climate change on different hydrological components like mean and low-flow levels, and drought stress in mesoscale catchments of Switzerland. In terms of mean flows approx. 200 catchments in Switzerland were simulated for the reference period 1984-2005 using the hydrological model PREVAH and projection for near (2025-2046) and far future (2074-2095) are based on delta-change values of 10 ENSEMBLES regional climate models assuming A1B emission scenario (CH2011 climate scenario data sets). We found seven distinct response types of catchments, each exhibiting a characteristic annual cycle of hydrologic change. A general pattern observed for all catchments, is the clearly decreasing summer runoff. Hence, within a second analysis of future discharge a special focus was set on summer low flow in a selection of 29 catchments in the Swiss Midlands. Low flows are critical as they have great implications on water usage and biodiversity. We re-calibrated the hydrological model PREVAH with a focus on base-flow and gauged discharge and used the aforementioned climate data sets and simulation time periods. We found low flow situations to be very likely to increase in both, magnitude and duration, especially in central and western Switzerland plateau. At third, the drought stress potential was analyzed by simulating the soil moisture level under climate change conditions in a high mountain catchment. We used the distributed hydrological model WaSiM-ETH for this aspect as soil characteristics are much better represented in this model. Soil moisture in forests below 2000 m a.s.l. were found to be affected at most, which might have implication to their function as avalanche protection forests. However, we found high uncertainties related to the downscaling method applied. Finally, we analyzed the effect of changed discharge characteristics on the hydropower production by coupling the hydrological model BERNHYDRO with a hydropower management model. For the near future (until 2050), the results indicate that losses in the hydropower production during the summer can be compensated by benefit during winter. These different aspects of climate change impacts on the hydrosphere reveal a differentiated picture involving potentially threatened and widely unaffected catchments, hydrologic parameters and hydrologic constraints to the society.

Dengue Fever Trends and Climate Change in San Juan, Puerto Rico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muller-Karger, F. E.; Mendez-Lazaro, P.; Otis, D. B.; McCarthy, M.; Pena-Orellana, M.

2014-12-01

Climate change has important implications for public health. We developed and tested the hypothesis that conditions for dengue fever transmission in San Juan (Puerto Rico, USA) are becoming favorable as a result of meteorological drivers being modified with climate change. Sea level pressure, mean sea level (MSL), wind, sea surface temperature (SST), air surface temperature (AST), rainfall, and confirmed dengue cases were variables examined over the past 30 years, or longer for some variables. Statistical tools used included Principal Component Analysis, Pearson correlation coefficient, Mann-Kendall trend tests, and logistic regressions. Results show that dry days are increasing and that wet days are decreasing. MSL is steadily increasing, which increases the risk of dengue cases along the coast, as the perimeter of the San Juan Bay estuary expands and the shoreline moves inland. Warming is evident in both SST and AST. Maximum and minimum air surface temperature extremes have also increased. Incidence of dengue is accelerating along with environmental change. For example, between 2000-2011, dengue transmission increased by a factor of 3.4 (95% CI: 1.9-6.1) for each 1ºC increase in SST. Between 2007 and 2011, this risk factor increased to 5.2 (95% CI: 1.9-13.9) for every 1ºC increase in SST. An important but difficult to examine problem is how social and economic factors affect such dengue fever transmission rates in light of environmental change. A concern is that the patterns observed in San Juan are representative of potential incidence of dengue virus in other parts of the island of Puerto Rico and in other Caribbean nations. These results help understand patterns of disease spreading, and allow public health officials to evaluate scenarios and interventions intended to mitigate the impacts of climate change.

Assessing climate impacts and risks of ocean albedo modification in the Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mengis, N.; Martin, T.; Keller, D. P.; Oschlies, A.

2016-05-01

The ice albedo feedback is one of the key factors of accelerated temperature increase in the high northern latitudes under global warming. This study assesses climate impacts and risks of idealized Arctic Ocean albedo modification (AOAM), a proposed climate engineering method, during transient climate change simulations with varying representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. We find no potential for reversing trends in all assessed Arctic climate metrics under increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. AOAM only yields an initial offset during the first years after implementation. Nevertheless, sea ice loss can be delayed by 25(60) years in the RCP8.5(RCP4.5) scenario and the delayed thawing of permafrost soils in the AOAM simulations prevents up to 40(32) Pg of carbon from being released by 2100. AOAM initially dampens the decline of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning and delays the onset of open ocean deep convection in the Nordic Seas under the RCP scenarios. Both these processes cause a subsurface warming signal in the AOAM simulations relative to the default RCP simulations with the potential to destabilize Arctic marine gas hydrates. Furthermore, in 2100, the RCP8.5 AOAM simulation diverts more from the 2005-2015 reference state in many climate metrics than the RCP4.5 simulation without AOAM. Considering the demonstrated risks, we conclude that concerning longer time scales, reductions in emissions remain the safest and most effective way to prevent severe changes in the Arctic.

A rapid upward shift of a forest ecotone during 40 years of warming in the Green Mountains of Vermont

PubMed Central

Beckage, Brian; Osborne, Ben; Gavin, Daniel G.; Pucko, Carolyn; Siccama, Thomas; Perkins, Timothy

2008-01-01

Detecting latitudinal range shifts of forest trees in response to recent climate change is difficult because of slow demographic rates and limited dispersal but may be facilitated by spatially compressed climatic zones along elevation gradients in montane environments. We resurveyed forest plots established in 1964 along elevation transects in the Green Mountains (Vermont) to examine whether a shift had occurred in the location of the northern hardwood–boreal forest ecotone (NBE) from 1964 to 2004. We found a 19% increase in dominance of northern hardwoods from 70% in 1964 to 89% in 2004 in the lower half of the NBE. This shift was driven by a decrease (up to 76%) in boreal and increase (up to 16%) in northern hardwood basal area within the lower portions of the ecotone. We used aerial photographs and satellite imagery to estimate a 91- to 119-m upslope shift in the upper limits of the NBE from 1962 to 2005. The upward shift is consistent with regional climatic change during the same period; interpolating climate data to the NBE showed a 1.1°C increase in annual temperature, which would predict a 208-m upslope movement of the ecotone, along with a 34% increase in precipitation. The rapid upward movement of the NBE indicates little inertia to climatically induced range shifts in montane forests; the upslope shift may have been accelerated by high turnover in canopy trees that provided opportunities for ingrowth of lower elevation species. Our results indicate that high-elevation forests may be jeopardized by climate change sooner than anticipated. PMID:18334647

The record of deglaciation in the Sulu Sea: Evidence for the Younger Dryas Event in the tropical western Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Linsley, Braddock K.; Thunell, Robert C.

1990-12-01

A high-resolution, accelerator mass spectroscopy 14C dated sediment record from the Sulu Sea clearly indicates that the Younger Dryas event affected the western equatorial Pacific. Planktonic foraminiferal δ18O and abundance data both record significant changes during Younger Dryas time. In particular, a 0.4‰ increase in the δ18O value of Globigerinoides ruber and the reappearance of the cool water planktonic foraminifera, Neogloboquadrina pachyderma, occur during the Younger Dryas at this location. These isotopic and faunal changes are a response to either surface water temperature or salinity changes, or some combination of the two. Changes in surface salinities could have been accomplished through either local or global processes. Intensification of the monsoon climate system and increased precipitation at approximately 11 ka is one mechanism that may have resulted in local changes in salinity. A meltwater pulse derived from the Tibetan Plateau is another mechanism which may have caused local changes in salinity. The presence of the Younger Dryas in the tropical western Pacific clearly indicates that this climatic event is not restricted to the North Atlantic or high latitudes, but rather is global in extent.

Patterns and comparisons of human-induced changes in river flood impacts in cities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clark, Stephanie; Sharma, Ashish; Sisson, Scott A.

2018-03-01

In this study, information extracted from the first global urban fluvial flood risk data set (Aqueduct) is investigated and visualized to explore current and projected city-level flood impacts driven by urbanization and climate change. We use a novel adaption of the self-organizing map (SOM) method, an artificial neural network proficient at clustering, pattern extraction, and visualization of large, multi-dimensional data sets. Prevalent patterns of current relationships and anticipated changes over time in the nonlinearly-related environmental and social variables are presented, relating urban river flood impacts to socioeconomic development and changing hydrologic conditions. Comparisons are provided between 98 individual cities. Output visualizations compare baseline and changing trends of city-specific exposures of population and property to river flooding, revealing relationships between the cities based on their relative map placements. Cities experiencing high (or low) baseline flood impacts on population and/or property that are expected to improve (or worsen), as a result of anticipated climate change and development, are identified and compared. This paper condenses and conveys large amounts of information through visual communication to accelerate the understanding of relationships between local urban conditions and global processes.

Does the climate warming hiatus exist over the Tibetan Plateau?

PubMed

Duan, Anmin; Xiao, Zhixiang

2015-09-02

The surface air temperature change over the Tibetan Plateau is determined based on historical observations from 1980 to 2013. In contrast to the cooling trend in the rest of China, and the global warming hiatus post-1990s, an accelerated warming trend has appeared over the Tibetan Plateau during 1998-2013 (0.25 °C decade(-1)), compared with that during 1980-1997 (0.21 °C decade(-1)). Further results indicate that, to some degree, such an accelerated warming trend might be attributable to cloud-radiation feedback. The increased nocturnal cloud over the northern Tibetan Plateau would warm the nighttime temperature via enhanced atmospheric back-radiation, while the decreased daytime cloud over the southern Tibetan Plateau would induce the daytime sunshine duration to increase, resulting in surface air temperature warming. Meanwhile, the in situ surface wind speed has recovered gradually since 1998, and thus the energy concentration cannot explain the accelerated warming trend over the Tibetan Plateau after the 1990s. It is suggested that cloud-radiation feedback may play an important role in modulating the recent accelerated warming trend over the Tibetan Plateau.

Precipitation Organization in a Warmer Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rickenbach, T. M.; Nieto Ferreira, R.; Nissenbaum, M.

2014-12-01

This study will investigate changes in precipitation organization in a warmer climate using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and CMIP-5 ensemble climate simulations. This work builds from an existing four-year NEXRAD radar-based precipitation climatology over the southeastern U.S. that uses a simple two-category framework of precipitation organization based on instantaneous precipitating feature size. The first category - mesoscale precipitation features (MPF) - dominates winter precipitation and is linked to the more predictable large-scale forcing provided by the extratropical cyclones. In contrast, the second category - isolated precipitation - dominates the summer season precipitation in the southern coastal and inland regions but is linked to less predictable mesoscale circulations and to local thermodynamics more crudely represented in climate models. Most climate modeling studies suggest that an accelerated water cycle in a warmer world will lead to an overall increase in precipitation, but few studies have addressed how precipitation organization may change regionally. To address this, WRF will simulate representative wintertime and summertime precipitation events in the Southeast US under the current and future climate. These events will be simulated in an environment resembling the future climate of the 2090s using the pseudo-global warming (PGW) approach based on an ensemble of temperature projections. The working hypothesis is that the higher water vapor content in the future simulation will result in an increase in the number of isolated convective systems, while MPFs will be more intense and longer-lasting. In the context of the seasonal climatology of MPF and isolated precipitation, these results have implications for assessing the predictability of future regional precipitation in the southeastern U.S.

Climate impacts on agriculture: Implications for forage and rangeland production

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Thomson, Allison M.; Morgan, Jack

2011-04-19

Projections of temperature and precipitation patterns across the United States during the next 50 years anticipate a 1.5 to 2°C warming and a slight increase in precipitation as a result of global climate change. There have been relatively few studies of climate change impacts on pasture and rangeland (grazingland) species compared to those on crop species, despite the economic and ecological importance of the former. Here we review the literature on pastureland and rangeland species to rising CO2 and climate change (temperature, and precipitation) and discuss plant and management factors likely to influence pastureland and rangeland responses to change (e.g.,more » community composition, plant competition, perennial growth habit, seasonal productivity, and management methods). Overall, the response of pasture species to increased [CO2] is consistent with the general response of C3 and C4 type vegetation, although significant exceptions exist. Both pastureland and rangeland species should exhibit an acceleration of metabolism and development due to earlier onset of spring green-up and longer growing seasons. However, in the studies reviewed here, C3 pasture species increased their photosynthetic rates by up to 40% while C4 species exhibited no increase in photosynthesis. In general, it is expected that increases in [CO2] and precipitation would enhance rangeland net primary production (NPP) while increased air temperatures would either increase or decrease NPP. Much of this uncertainty in response is due to uncertain future projections of precipitation, both globally and regionally. For example, if annual precipitation changes little or declines, rangeland plant response to warming temperatures and rising [CO2] may be neutral or may decline due to increased water stress. This review reveals the need for comprehensive studies of climate change impacts on the pasture ecosystem including grazing regimes, mutualistic relationships (e.g., plant roots-nematodes; N-fixing organisms), as well as the ecosystem carbon balance, essential nutrients, and water.« less

Spatial stabilization and intensification of moistening and drying rate patterns under future climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chavaillaz, Y.; Joussaume, S.; Bony, S.; Braconnot, P.

2015-12-01

Most climate studies characterize the future climate change by considering the evolution between a fixed current baseline and the future. It emphasizes an increase of future precipitation changes with global warming. Here we use an alternative approach that considers rate of change indicators related to precipitation using projections of an ensemble of General Circulation Models. The rate is defined by the difference between two subsequent 20-year periods. This approach can be relevant to impacts affecting upcoming generations, and to their continuous adaptation towards a changing target. Under the strongest emission pathway (RCP8.5), moistening and drying rates strongly increase at the global scale. As we move further over the twenty-first century, more and more regions exhibit substantial rates. These regions are modified over time due to spatial variability of precipitation. However, we show that they tend to become more geographically stationary through the century, leading to persisting trends at several places over the globe. Whilst global warming is accelerating, this spatial stabilization is due to the decreasing relative influence of global circulation in precipitation changes compared to thermodynamic processes. In specific regions, the combination of intensification and persistence of such substantial rates should be considered in the framework of future impact studies (i.e. the Mediterranean Sea, Central America, South Asia and the Arctic). These trends are already visible in the current period, but could almost disappear if strong mitigation policies (RCP2.6) were quickly implemented.

Welcome to NASA's Earth Science Enterprise. Version 3

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2001-01-01

There are strong scientific indications that natural change in the Earth system is being accelerated by human intervention. As a result, planet Earth faces the possibility of rapid environmental changes that would have a profound impact on all nations. However, we do not fully understand either the short-term effects of our activities, or their long-term implications - many important scientific questions remain unanswered. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is working with the national and international scientific communities to establish a sound scientific basis for addressing these critical issues through research efforts coordinated under the U.S. Global Change Research Program, the International Geosphere-Biosphere Program, and the World Climate Research Program. The Earth Science Enterprise is NASA's contribution to the U.S. Global Change Research Program. NASA's Earth Science Enterprise will use space- and surface-based measurement systems to provide the scientific basis for understanding global change. The space-based components will provide a constellation of satellites to monitor the Earth from space. A major component of the Earth Science Enterprise is the Earth Observing System (EOS). The overall objective of the EOS Program is to determine the extent, causes, and regional consequences of global climate change. EOS will provide sustained space-based observations that will allow researchers to monitor climate variables over time to determine trends. A constellation of EOS satellites will acquire global data, beginning in 1998 and extending well into the 21st century.

The Aerosol-Monsoon Climate System of Asia

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K. M.; Kyu-Myong, Kim

2012-01-01

In Asian monsoon countries such as China and India, human health and safety problems caused by air-pollution are worsening due to the increased loading of atmospheric pollutants stemming from rising energy demand associated with the rapid pace of industrialization and modernization. Meanwhile, uneven distribution of monsoon rain associated with flash flood or prolonged drought, has caused major loss of human lives, and damages in crop and properties with devastating societal impacts on Asian countries. Historically, air-pollution and monsoon research are treated as separate problems. However a growing number of recent studies have suggested that the two problems may be intrinsically intertwined and need to be studied jointly. Because of complexity of the dynamics of the monsoon systems, aerosol impacts on monsoons and vice versa must be studied and understood in the context of aerosol forcing in relationship to changes in fundamental driving forces of the monsoon climate system (e.g. sea surface temperature, land-sea contrast etc.) on time scales from intraseasonal variability (weeks) to climate change ( multi-decades). Indeed, because of the large contributions of aerosols to the global and regional energy balance of the atmosphere and earth surface, and possible effects of the microphysics of clouds and precipitation, a better understanding of the response to climate change in Asian monsoon regions requires that aerosols be considered as an integral component of a fully coupled aerosol-monsoon system on all time scales. In this paper, using observations and results from climate modeling, we will discuss the coherent variability of the coupled aerosol-monsoon climate system in South Asia and East Asia, including aerosol distribution and types, with respect to rainfall, moisture, winds, land-sea thermal contrast, heat sources and sink distributions in the atmosphere in seasonal, interannual to climate change time scales. We will show examples of how elevated absorbing aerosols (dust and black carbon) may interact with monsoon dynamics to produce feedback effects on the atmospheric water cycle, leading to in accelerated melting of snowpacks over the Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau, and subsequent changes in evolution of the pre-monsoon and peak monsoon rainfall, moisture and wind distributions in South Asia and East Asia.

Pliocene oceanic seaways and global climate.

PubMed

Karas, Cyrus; Nürnberg, Dirk; Bahr, André; Groeneveld, Jeroen; Herrle, Jens O; Tiedemann, Ralf; deMenocal, Peter B

2017-01-05

Tectonically induced changes in oceanic seaways had profound effects on global and regional climate during the Late Neogene. The constriction of the Central American Seaway reached a critical threshold during the early Pliocene ~4.8-4 million years (Ma) ago. Model simulations indicate the strengthening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) with a signature warming response in the Northern Hemisphere and cooling in the Southern Hemisphere. Subsequently, between ~4-3 Ma, the constriction of the Indonesian Seaway impacted regional climate and might have accelerated the Northern Hemisphere Glaciation. We here present Pliocene Atlantic interhemispheric sea surface temperature and salinity gradients (deduced from foraminiferal Mg/Ca and stable oxygen isotopes, δ 18 O) in combination with a recently published benthic stable carbon isotope (δ 13 C) record from the southernmost extent of North Atlantic Deep Water to reconstruct gateway-related changes in the AMOC mode. After an early reduction of the AMOC at ~5.3 Ma, we show in agreement with model simulations of the impacts of Central American Seaway closure a strengthened AMOC with a global climate signature. During ~3.8-3 Ma, we suggest a weakening of the AMOC in line with the global cooling trend, with possible contributions from the constriction of the Indonesian Seaway.

Gas valves, forests and global change: a commentary on Jarvis (1976) ‘The interpretation of the variations in leaf water potential and stomatal conductance found in canopies in the field’

PubMed Central

Beerling, David J.

2015-01-01

Microscopic turgor-operated gas valves on leaf surfaces—stomata—facilitate gas exchange between the plant and the atmosphere, and respond to multiple environmental and endogenous cues. Collectively, stomatal activities affect everything from the productivity of forests, grasslands and crops to biophysical feedbacks between land surface vegetation and climate. In 1976, plant physiologist Paul Jarvis reported an empirical model describing stomatal responses to key environmental and plant conditions that predicted the flux of water vapour from leaves into the surrounding atmosphere. Subsequent theoretical advances, building on this earlier approach, established the current paradigm for capturing the physiological behaviour of stomata that became incorporated into sophisticated models of land carbon cycling. However, these models struggle to accurately predict observed trends in the physiological responses of Northern Hemisphere forests to recent atmospheric CO2 increases, highlighting the need for improved representation of the role of stomata in regulating forest–climate interactions. Bridging this gap between observations and theory as atmospheric CO2 rises and climate change accelerates creates challenging opportunities for the next generation of physiologists to advance planetary ecology and climate science. This commentary was written to celebrate the 350th anniversary of the journal Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society. PMID:25750234

[Spatiotemporal dynamics of land cover in northern Tibetan Plateau with responses to climate change].

PubMed

Song, Chun-qiao; You, Song-cai; Ke, Ling-hong; Liu, Gao-huan; Zhong, Xin-ke

2011-08-01

By using the 2001-2008 MOMS land cover products (MCDl2Ql) and based on the modified classification scheme embodied the characteristics of land cover in northern Tibetan Plateau, the annual land cover type maps of the Plateau were drawn, with the dynamic changes of each land cover type analyzed by classification statistics, dynamic transfer matrix, and landscape pattern indices. In 2001-2008, due to the acceleration of global climate warming, the areas of glacier and snow-covered land in the Plateau decreased rapidly, and the melted snow water gathered into low-lying valley or basin, making the lake level raised and the lake area enlarged. Some permanent wetlands were formed because of partially submersed grassland. The vegetation cover did not show any evident meliorated or degraded trend. From 2001 to 2004, as the climate became warmer and wetter, the spatial distribution of desert began to shrink, and the proportions of sparse grassland and grassland increased. From 2006 to 2007, due to the warmer and drier climate, the desert bare land increased, and the sparse grassland decreased. From 2001 to 2008, both the landscape fragmentation degree and the land cover heterogeneity decreased, and the differences in the proportions of all land cover types somewhat enlarged.

Glacial History of the NE Antarctic Peninsula over centennial to millennial timescales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davies, B. J.; Glasser, N. F.; Hambrey, M.; Carrivick, J.; Smellie, J.

2010-12-01

A detailed glacier inventory of 232 glaciers was undertaken of the northeast Antarctic Peninsula and James Ross Island for the first time. Glacier inventories provide representative, detailed and natural indications of the impacts of climate change. Documenting the continued response of ice shelf feeder glaciers after the collapse of the Prince Gustav Ice Shelf in 1997 is especially important for predicting future glacier behaviour in this region. James Ross Island has a relatively long history of glacier observations, and offers a unique opportunity to assess the ongoing impacts of a changing climate in a very sensitive part of the global system. This work classified and mapped the glaciers of James Ross Island and the northern Antarctic Peninsula for the first time, documenting change in extent and behaviour in 1988, 2001 and 2009, and characterising glacier response to ice shelf collapse. Glacier altitude, aspect, area, slope and rate of recession were among the indices' measured. James Ross Island is approximately 78% ice-covered, with ice-free terrain exhibiting characteristic permafrost and thermokarst landforms, including rock glaciers and ice-cored moraine. The island is dominated by the cold-based Mount Haddington Ice Cap, which feeds numerous polythermal elongate tidewater valley glaciers. The tidewater glaciers typically form extensive medial, lateral and terminal moraines. Initial inventory results show that ice-shelf feeder tidewater glaciers on the APIS have stabilised since the 1997 collapse of the Prince Gustav Ice Shelf, although recession continues. Of the non-ice-shelf tidewater glaciers, glacier recession has accelerated in the decade since 2001. Land-based valley glacier retreat has accelerated post 2001, in line with continued atmospheric warming. Climate relationships can be determined from altitude-aspect relationships, with glaciers on the drier eastern side of James Ross Island retreating fastest. Glacier mass balances are strongly influenced by glacier hypsometry, aspect, and slope, resulting in asymmetric retreat patterns.

[Effects of climate change on flax development and yield in Guyuan of Ningxia, Northwest China].

PubMed

Li, Shu-Zhen; Sun, Lin-Li; Ma, Yu-Ping; Ma, Yu-Ping; Xu, Yu-Dong; E, You-Hao

2014-10-01

Based on variations of the annual mean temperature and precipitation analyzed using ob- servation data in Guyuan of Ningxia, the effects of climate change on the local flax developmental process and yield were investigated. The results showed that the annual mean temperature had an increasing trend (0.3 °C · (10 a)-1) and the annual precipitation had a decreasing trend (-20 mm · (10 a) -1) from 1957 to 2012. While the increasing trend of mean temperature during growing season of flax was more obviously than that of the annual temperature, the decreasing trend of precipitation during growing season was similar to that of annual precipitation. With temperature increasing and precipitation decreasing, the flax development rate was accelerated, resulting in the reduced growing period. Seedling stage was advanced 0.7 d with 1 °C increase in temperature during the period from sowing to seedling emergence. The duration from seedling emergence to two pairs of needles was shortened by 0.8 d with 1 °C increase in temperature and 0.1 d with 1 mm decrease in precipitation. Maturity stage was advanced 1.8 d with 1 °C increase in temperature and 0.1 d with 1 mm decrease in precipitation during the period from technical maturity to maturity. The flax development was accelerated because of temperature increasing and precipitation decreasing in the vegetative growth phase, which was one of the main causes of flax yield reduction year by year. Meanwhile, flower bud differentiation and pollination of flax were influenced by temperature increasing in the reproductive growth phase, which would affect the number of capsules and the seed setting rate per plant and lead to the decrease of flax yield. Therefore, adjusting plant structure and enlarging the planting area of late or middle-late variety were the important measures to reduce the effects of climate change on local flax production.

Mechanisms that Amplify, Attenuate and Deviate Glacier Response to Climate Change in Central East Greenland. (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiskoot, H.

2013-12-01

A multidecadal review of glacier fluctuations and case-studies of glacier processes and environments in central East Greenland will be used to demonstrate Mechanisms that Amplify, Attenuate and Deviate glacier response to climate forcings (MAAD). The different spatial and temporal scales at which MAAD affect mass balance and ice flow may complicate interpretation and longterm extrapolation of glacier response to climate change. A framework of MAAD characterisation and best-practice for interpreting climate signals while taking into account MAAD will be proposed. Glaciers in the Watkins Bjerge, Geikie Plateau and Stauning Alps regions of central East Greenland (68°-72°N) contain about 50000 km2 of glacierized area peripheral to the Greenland Ice Sheet. Within the region, large north-south and coast-inland climatic gradients, as well as complicated topography and glacier dynamics, result in discrepant glacier behaviour. Average retreat rates have doubled from about 2 to 4 km2 a-1 between the late 20th and early 21st centuries. However, glaciers terminating along the Atlantic coast display two times the retreat, thinning, and acceleration rates compared to glaciers terminating in inland fjords or on land. Despite similar climatic forcing variable glacier behaviour is apparent: individual glacier length change ranges from +57 m a-1 to -428 m a-1, though most retreat -20 to -100 m a-1. Interacting dynamic, mass balance and glacio-morphological mechanisms can amplify, attenuate or deviate glacier response (MAAD) to climate change, thus complicating the climatological interpretation of glacier length, area, and thickness changes. East Greenland MAAD include a range of common positive and negative feedback mechanisms in surface mass balance and terminus and subglacial boundary conditions affecting ice flow, but also mechanisms that have longterm or delayed effects. Certain MAAD may affect glacier change interpretation on multiple timescales: e.g. surging glaciers do not only pose problems for the direct interpretation of climate change from length and volume changes due to their dynamically-driven advance and retreat regimes, but also for the reconstruction of LIA extents from trimlines and moraines, and the reconstruction of surface mass balance due to crevasses, potholes or debris-cover. This presentation will address a range of MAAD, including thermal regime transitions; ocean influences on tidewater-terminating glaciers; glacier fragmentation and tributary-trunk interaction; glacier surging and tidewater behaviour; seasonal variations; glacier hypsometry and morphology; terrain and substrate; melt-albedo and melt-ice flow feedbacks; and ice marginal lakes.

Climate Modeling: Ocean Cavities below Ice Shelves

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Petersen, Mark Roger

The Accelerated Climate Model for Energy (ACME), a new initiative by the U.S. Department of Energy, includes unstructured-mesh ocean, land-ice, and sea-ice components using the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) framework. The ability to run coupled high-resolution global simulations efficiently on large, high-performance computers is a priority for ACME. Sub-ice shelf ocean cavities are a significant new capability in ACME, and will be used to better understand how changing ocean temperature and currents influence glacial melting and retreat. These simulations take advantage of the horizontal variable-resolution mesh and adaptive vertical coordinate in MPAS-Ocean, in order to place high resolutionmore » below ice shelves and near grounding lines.« less

The Future of the Mississippi Delta: Shifting Baselines, Diminishing Resilience, and Growing Non-Sustainability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Detrick, R. S.; Hafner, K.; Davis, J. P.; Wilson, D.; Woodward, R.

2016-12-01

Ecosystems and human communities of the Mississippi delta developed with predictable basin inputs, stable sea level, and as an open system with a high degree of interaction among drainage basin inputs, deltaic plain, and the coastal sea. Human activity changed altered the coast and lowered predictability. Management has become very energy intensive and dependent on cheap resources with more hard engineering and less ecological engineering. Pervasive alteration of the basin and delta and global change have altered the baseline and change is accelerating. Climate change projections include not only sea-level rise, but also more stronger hurricanes, increased large river floods, and more intense rainfall events and droughts. A sustainable Mississippi is outside of the boundaries of the current CMP.

The Future of the Mississippi Delta: Shifting Baselines, Diminishing Resilience, and Growing Non-Sustainability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Day, J.

2017-12-01

Ecosystems and human communities of the Mississippi delta developed with predictable basin inputs, stable sea level, and as an open system with a high degree of interaction among drainage basin inputs, deltaic plain, and the coastal sea. Human activity changed altered the coast and lowered predictability. Management has become very energy intensive and dependent on cheap resources with more hard engineering and less ecological engineering. Pervasive alteration of the basin and delta and global change have altered the baseline and change is accelerating. Climate change projections include not only sea-level rise, but also more stronger hurricanes, increased large river floods, and more intense rainfall events and droughts. A sustainable Mississippi is outside of the boundaries of the current CMP.

[Physical methods for the correction of thermal adaptation and acclimatization of athletes to hot and humid climate].

PubMed

Dubrovskiĭ, V I; Razumov, A N; Liadov, K V; Babkin, A P; Dubrovskaia, A V

2009-01-01

The objective of the present study was to evaluate the possibility of accelerating adaptation and acclimation of 106 athletes aged from 18 to 34 years to hot and moist conditions by combined treatment including consumption of a special drink and cryomassage including the use of aromatic oils. It was shown that the proposed approach proved highly efficient in that it accelerates acclimatization and adaptation to hot and moist climate.

Walk the Talk: Teachers as Leaders in Climate Change Education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Warburton, J.; Bartholow, S.; Larson, A.

2014-12-01

The notion of teachers as leaders and communicators is not new but rather it has been limited in scope. Teachers have long served as team leaders, department chairs, and curriculum developers. But what happens when you go beyond these typical roles in professional development? Can teachers become lead communicators beyond the classroom? Can they become leaders of change on important topics like the climate? For nearly a decade, PolarTREC (Teachers and Researchers Exploring and Collaborating), funded by the National Science Foundation, has been teaming teachers with research projects in all fields of polar science. Teachers participate in hands-on field research experiences in the polar regions which focus heavily on climate change and climate science. Administrated by the Arctic Research Consortium of the United States, the goal of PolarTREC is to invigorate polar science education and understanding by bringing K-12 educators and polar researchers together. The program fosters a teacher and researcher network, which accelerates the cross-pollination of knowledge in science practices, findings, and classroom implementation throughout disciplines. Evaluation data exposes a crucial dynamic that increases the potential for a successful climate change science campaign. Data indicates that teachers can tackle challenges such as reframing climate change science to better address the need for a particular campaign, as well as garnering the science project the necessary support through effective, authentic, and tangible communication efforts to policymakers, funders, students, and the public. Researchers reported the value of explaining their science, in-situ, allowed them to reframe and rework the objectives of the science project to attain meaningful outcomes. More than half of the researchers specifically noted that one of the strengths of the PolarTREC project is its benefit to the scientific process. The researchers also viewed PolarTREC as an essential outreach activity and improved the public perception of their scientific endeavors. This presentation will speak to the PolarTREC program's best practice and findings on improved polar science communications as well as how the teachers have become the lead communicators in this time of rapid global change across all disciplines.

Understanding the Impacts of Climate Change and Land Use Dynamics Using a Fully Coupled Hydrologic Feedback Model between Surface and Subsurface Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, C.; Lee, J.; Koo, M.

2011-12-01

Climate is the most critical driving force of the hydrologic system of the Earth. Since the industrial revolution, the impacts of anthropogenic activities to the Earth environment have been expanded and accelerated. Especially, the global emission of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere is known to have significantly increased temperature and affected the hydrologic system. Many hydrologists have contributed to the studies regarding the climate change on the hydrologic system since the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was created in 1988. Among many components in the hydrologic system groundwater and its response to the climate change and anthropogenic activities are not fully understood due to the complexity of subsurface conditions between the surface and the groundwater table. A new spatio-temporal hydrologic model has been developed to estimate the impacts of climate change and land use dynamics on the groundwater. The model consists of two sub-models: a surface model and a subsurface model. The surface model involves three surface processes: interception, runoff, and evapotranspiration, and the subsurface model does also three subsurface processes: soil moisture balance, recharge, and groundwater flow. The surface model requires various input data including land use, soil types, vegetation types, topographical elevations, and meteorological data. The surface model simulates daily hydrological processes for rainfall interception, surface runoff varied by land use change and crop growth, and evapotranspiration controlled by soil moisture balance. The daily soil moisture balance is a key element to link two sub-models as it calculates infiltration and groundwater recharge by considering a time delay routing through a vadose zone down to the groundwater table. MODFLOW is adopted to simulate groundwater flow and interaction with surface water components as well. The model is technically flexible to add new model or modify existing model as it is developed with an object-oriented language - Python. The model also can easily be localized by simple modification of soil and crop properties. The actual application of the model after calibration was successful and results showed reliable water balance and interaction between the surface and subsurface hydrologic systems.

Metabolic and Kidney Diseases in the Setting of Climate Change, Water Shortage, and Survival Factors.

PubMed

Johnson, Richard J; Stenvinkel, Peter; Jensen, Thomas; Lanaspa, Miguel A; Roncal, Carlos; Song, Zhilin; Bankir, Lise; Sánchez-Lozada, Laura G

2016-08-01

Climate change (global warming) is leading to an increase in heat extremes and coupled with increasing water shortage, provides a perfect storm for a new era of environmental crises and potentially, new diseases. We use a comparative physiologic approach to show that one of the primary mechanisms by which animals protect themselves against water shortage is to increase fat mass as a means for providing metabolic water. Strong evidence suggests that certain hormones (vasopressin), foods (fructose), and metabolic products (uric acid) function as survival signals to help reduce water loss and store fat (which also provides a source of metabolic water). These mechanisms are intricately linked with each other and stimulated by dehydration and hyperosmolarity. Although these mechanisms were protective in the setting of low sugar and low salt intake in our past, today, the combination of diets high in fructose and salty foods, increasing temperatures, and decreasing available water places these survival signals in overdrive and may be accelerating the obesity and diabetes epidemics. The recent discovery of multiple epidemics of CKD occurring in agricultural workers in hot and humid environments may represent harbingers of the detrimental consequences of the combination of climate change and overactivation of survival pathways. Copyright © 2016 by the American Society of Nephrology.

Metabolic and Kidney Diseases in the Setting of Climate Change, Water Shortage, and Survival Factors

PubMed Central

Stenvinkel, Peter; Jensen, Thomas; Lanaspa, Miguel A.; Roncal, Carlos; Song, Zhilin; Bankir, Lise; Sánchez-Lozada, Laura G.

2016-01-01

Climate change (global warming) is leading to an increase in heat extremes and coupled with increasing water shortage, provides a perfect storm for a new era of environmental crises and potentially, new diseases. We use a comparative physiologic approach to show that one of the primary mechanisms by which animals protect themselves against water shortage is to increase fat mass as a means for providing metabolic water. Strong evidence suggests that certain hormones (vasopressin), foods (fructose), and metabolic products (uric acid) function as survival signals to help reduce water loss and store fat (which also provides a source of metabolic water). These mechanisms are intricately linked with each other and stimulated by dehydration and hyperosmolarity. Although these mechanisms were protective in the setting of low sugar and low salt intake in our past, today, the combination of diets high in fructose and salty foods, increasing temperatures, and decreasing available water places these survival signals in overdrive and may be accelerating the obesity and diabetes epidemics. The recent discovery of multiple epidemics of CKD occurring in agricultural workers in hot and humid environments may represent harbingers of the detrimental consequences of the combination of climate change and overactivation of survival pathways. PMID:27283495

Climate change and body size shift in Mediterranean bivalve assemblages: unexpected role of biological invasions.

PubMed

Nawrot, Rafał; Albano, Paolo G; Chattopadhyay, Devapriya; Zuschin, Martin

2017-08-16

Body size is a synthetic functional trait determining many key ecosystem properties. Reduction in average body size has been suggested as one of the universal responses to global warming in aquatic ecosystems. Climate change, however, coincides with human-enhanced dispersal of alien species and can facilitate their establishment. We address effects of species introductions on the size structure of recipient communities using data on Red Sea bivalves entering the Mediterranean Sea through the Suez Canal. We show that the invasion leads to increase in median body size of the Mediterranean assemblage. Alien species are significantly larger than native Mediterranean bivalves, even though they represent a random subset of the Red Sea species with respect to body size. The observed patterns result primarily from the differences in the taxonomic composition and body-size distributions of the source and recipient species pools. In contrast to the expectations based on the general temperature-size relationships in marine ectotherms, continued warming of the Mediterranean Sea indirectly leads to an increase in the proportion of large-bodied species in bivalve assemblages by accelerating the entry and spread of tropical aliens. These results underscore complex interactions between changing climate and species invasions in driving functional shifts in marine ecosystems. © 2017 The Author(s).

Vulnerability of high-latitude soil organic carbon in North America to disturbance

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grosse, Guido; Harden, Jennifer W.; Turetsky, Merritt; McGuire, A. David; Camill, Philip; Tarnocai, Charles; Frolking, Steve; Schuur, Edward A.G.; Jorgenson, Torre; Marchenko, Sergei; Romanovsky, Vladimir; Wickland, Kimberly P.; French, Nancy; Waldrop, Mark P.; Bourgeau-Chavez, Laura L.; Striegl, Robert G.

2011-01-01

This synthesis addresses the vulnerability of the North American high-latitude soil organic carbon (SOC) pool to climate change. Disturbances caused by climate warming in arctic, subarctic, and boreal environments can result in significant redistribution of C among major reservoirs with potential global impacts. We divide the current northern high-latitude SOC pools into (1) near-surface soils where SOC is affected by seasonal freeze-thaw processes and changes in moisture status, and (2) deeper permafrost and peatland strata down to several tens of meters depth where SOC is usually not affected by short-term changes. We address key factors (permafrost, vegetation, hydrology, paleoenvironmental history) and processes (C input, storage, decomposition, and output) responsible for the formation of the large high-latitude SOC pool in North America and highlight how climate-related disturbances could alter this pool's character and size. Press disturbances of relatively slow but persistent nature such as top-down thawing of permafrost, and changes in hydrology, microbiological communities, pedological processes, and vegetation types, as well as pulse disturbances of relatively rapid and local nature such as wildfires and thermokarst, could substantially impact SOC stocks. Ongoing climate warming in the North American high-latitude region could result in crossing environmental thresholds, thereby accelerating press disturbances and increasingly triggering pulse disturbances and eventually affecting the C source/sink net character of northern high-latitude soils. Finally, we assess postdisturbance feedbacks, models, and predictions for the northern high-latitude SOC pool, and discuss data and research gaps to be addressed by future research.

Probable Maximum Precipitation in the U.S. Pacific Northwest in a Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Xiaodong; Hossain, Faisal; Leung, L. Ruby

2017-11-01

The safety of large and aging water infrastructures is gaining attention in water management given the accelerated rate of change in landscape, climate, and society. In current engineering practice, such safety is ensured by the design of infrastructure for the Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP). Recently, several numerical modeling approaches have been proposed to modernize the conventional and ad hoc PMP estimation approach. However, the underlying physics have not been fully investigated and thus differing PMP estimates are sometimes obtained without physics-based interpretations. In this study, we present a hybrid approach that takes advantage of both traditional engineering practice and modern climate science to estimate PMP for current and future climate conditions. The traditional PMP approach is modified and applied to five statistically downscaled CMIP5 model outputs, producing an ensemble of PMP estimates in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) during the historical (1970-2016) and future (2050-2099) time periods. The hybrid approach produced consistent historical PMP estimates as the traditional estimates. PMP in the PNW will increase by 50% ± 30% of the current design PMP by 2099 under the RCP8.5 scenario. Most of the increase is caused by warming, which mainly affects moisture availability through increased sea surface temperature, with minor contributions from changes in storm efficiency in the future. Moist track change tends to reduce the future PMP. Compared with extreme precipitation, PMP exhibits higher internal variability. Thus, long-time records of high-quality data in both precipitation and related meteorological fields (temperature, wind fields) are required to reduce uncertainties in the ensemble PMP estimates.

The safety of high-hazard water infrastructures in the U.S. Pacific Northwest in a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, X.; Hossain, F.; Leung, L. R.

2017-12-01

The safety of large and aging water infrastructures is gaining attention in water management given the accelerated rate of change in landscape, climate and society. In current engineering practice, such safety is ensured by the design of infrastructure for the Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP). Recently, several numerical modeling approaches have been proposed to modernize the conventional and ad hoc PMP estimation approach. However, the underlying physics have not been investigated and thus differing PMP estimates are obtained without clarity on their interpretation. In this study, we present a hybrid approach that takes advantage of both traditional engineering practice and modern climate science to estimate PMP for current and future climate conditions. The traditional PMP approach is improved and applied to five statistically downscaled CMIP5 model outputs, producing an ensemble of PMP estimates in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) during the historical (1970-2016) and future (2050-2099) time periods. The new historical PMP estimates are verified against the traditional estimates. PMP in the PNW will increase by 50%±30% of the current level by 2099 under the RCP8.5 scenario. Most of the increase is caused by warming, which mainly affects moisture availability through increased sea surface temperature, with minor contributions from changes in storm efficiency in the future. Moist track change tends to reduce the future PMP. Compared with extreme precipitation, PMP exhibits higher internal variability. Thus long-time records of high-quality data in both precipitation and related meteorological fields (temperature, wind fields) are required to reduce uncertainties in the ensemble PMP estimates.

Probable Maximum Precipitation in the U.S. Pacific Northwest in a Changing Climate

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Xiaodong; Hossain, Faisal; Leung, Lai-Yung

2017-12-22

The safety of large and aging water infrastructures is gaining attention in water management given the accelerated rate of change in landscape, climate and society. In current engineering practice, such safety is ensured by the design of infrastructure for the Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP). Recently, several physics-based numerical modeling approaches have been proposed to modernize the conventional and ad hoc PMP estimation approach. However, the underlying physics has not been investigated and thus differing PMP estimates are obtained without clarity on their interpretation. In this study, we present a hybrid approach that takes advantage of both traditional engineering wisdom andmore » modern climate science to estimate PMP for current and future climate conditions. The traditional PMP approach is improved and applied to outputs from an ensemble of five CMIP5 models. This hybrid approach is applied in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) to produce ensemble PMP estimation for the historical (1970-2016) and future (2050-2099) time periods. The new historical PMP estimates are verified by comparing them with the traditional estimates. PMP in the PNW will increase by 50% of the current level by 2099 under the RCP8.5 scenario. Most of the increase is caused by warming, which mainly affects moisture availability, with minor contributions from changes in storm efficiency in the future. Moist track change tends to reduce the future PMP. Compared with extreme precipitation, ensemble PMP exhibits higher internal variation. Thus high-quality data of both precipitation and related meteorological fields (temperature, wind fields) are required to reduce uncertainties in the ensemble PMP estimates.« less

Heat tolerance around flowering in wheat identified as a key trait for increased yield potential in Europe under climate change

PubMed Central

Stratonovitch, Pierre; Semenov, Mikhail A.

2015-01-01

To deliver food security for the 9 billon population in 2050, a 70% increase in world food supply will be required. Projected climatic and environmental changes emphasize the need for breeding strategies that delivers both a substantial increase in yield potential and resilience to extreme weather events such as heat waves, late frost, and drought. Heat stress around sensitive stages of wheat development has been identified as a possible threat to wheat production in Europe. However, no estimates have been made to assess yield losses due to increased frequency and magnitude of heat stress under climate change. Using existing experimental data, the Sirius wheat model was refined by incorporating the effects of extreme temperature during flowering and grain filling on accelerated leaf senescence, grain number, and grain weight. This allowed us, for the first time, to quantify yield losses resulting from heat stress under climate change. The model was used to optimize wheat ideotypes for CMIP5-based climate scenarios for 2050 at six sites in Europe with diverse climates. The yield potential for heat-tolerant ideotypes can be substantially increased in the future (e.g. by 80% at Seville, 100% at Debrecen) compared with the current cultivars by selecting an optimal combination of wheat traits, e.g. optimal phenology and extended duration of grain filling. However, at two sites, Seville and Debrecen, the grain yields of heat-sensitive ideotypes were substantially lower (by 54% and 16%) and more variable compared with heat-tolerant ideotypes, because the extended grain filling required for the increased yield potential was in conflict with episodes of high temperature during flowering and grain filling. Despite much earlier flowering at these sites, the risk of heat stress affecting yields of heat-sensitive ideotypes remained high. Therefore, heat tolerance in wheat is likely to become a key trait for increased yield potential and yield stability in southern Europe in the future. PMID:25750425

Can beaches survive climate change?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vitousek, Sean; Barnard, Patrick L.; Limber, Patrick W.

2017-01-01

Anthropogenic climate change is driving sea level rise, leading to numerous impacts on the coastal zone, such as increased coastal flooding, beach erosion, cliff failure, saltwater intrusion in aquifers, and groundwater inundation. Many beaches around the world are currently experiencing chronic erosion as a result of gradual, present-day rates of sea level rise (about 3 mm/year) and human-driven restrictions in sand supply (e.g., harbor dredging and river damming). Accelerated sea level rise threatens to worsen coastal erosion and challenge the very existence of natural beaches throughout the world. Understanding and predicting the rates of sea level rise and coastal erosion depends on integrating data on natural systems with computer simulations. Although many computer modeling approaches are available to simulate shoreline change, few are capable of making reliable long-term predictions needed for full adaption or to enhance resilience. Recent advancements have allowed convincing decadal to centennial-scale predictions of shoreline evolution. For example, along 500 km of the Southern California coast, a new model featuring data assimilation predicts that up to 67% of beaches may completely erode by 2100 without large-scale human interventions. In spite of recent advancements, coastal evolution models must continue to improve in their theoretical framework, quantification of accuracy and uncertainty, computational efficiency, predictive capability, and integration with observed data, in order to meet the scientific and engineering challenges produced by a changing climate.

Effect of climate change on shoreline shifts at a straight and continuous coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rajasree, B. R.; Deo, M. C.; Sheela Nair, L.

2016-12-01

The prediction of the rate of shoreline shifts as well as that of erosion and accretion over future at a given location is traditionally done on the basis of analysis of past wave data. However under the changing climate affected by global warming it is better done considering the projected wave conditions over the future. The same is demonstrated in this work with respect to a stretch of coastline at 'Udupi' along the west coast of India. The shoreline changes in the past are first determined with the help of historic satellite images. A numerical shoreline model is later run on the basis of wave simulations of past 35 years as well as future 35 years. The latter wave conditions are obtained from wind projections corresponding to a high resolution regional climate model run for a moderate pathway of global warming. Alternatively prediction of the changes over future 35 years is also made by using the soft computing tool of artificial neural network (ANN) trained with the help of past satellite images. The results indicate that the area under consideration presently undergoes considerable erosion and this process will accelerate in future. The volume of annual sediment transport will also substantially increase over the future. The alternative computations made with the help of an ANN confirmed the future rising trend of erosion, albeit at smaller rate than the numerically predicted one.

Remote sensing-based characterization, 2-m, Plant Functional Type Distributions, Barrow Environmental Observatory, 2010

DOE Data Explorer

Langford, Zachary; Kumar, Jitendra; Hoffman, Forrest

2014-01-01

Arctic ecosystems have been observed to be warming faster than the global average and are predicted to experience accelerated changes in climate due to global warming. Arctic vegetation is particularly sensitive to warming conditions and likely to exhibit shifts in species composition, phenology and productivity under changing climate. Mapping and monitoring of changes in vegetation is essential to understand the effect of climate change on the ecosystem functions. Vegetation exhibits unique spectral characteristics which can be harnessed to discriminate plant types and develop quantitative vegetation indices. We have combined high resolution multi-spectral remote sensing from the WorldView 2 satellite with LIDAR-derived digital elevation models to characterize the tundra landscape on the North Slope of Alaska. Classification of landscape using spectral and topographic characteristics yields spatial regions with expectedly similar vegetation characteristics. A field campaign was conducted during peak growing season to collect vegetation harvests from a number of 1m x 1m plots in the study region, which were then analyzed for distribution of vegetation types in the plots. Statistical relationships were developed between spectral and topographic characteristics and vegetation type distributions at the vegetation plots. These derived relationships were employed to statistically upscale the vegetation distributions for the landscape based on spectral characteristics. Vegetation distributions developed are being used to provide Plant Functional Type (PFT) maps for use in the Community Land Model (CLM).

Assessing, understanding, and conveying the state of the Arctic sea ice cover

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perovich, D. K.; Richter-Menge, J. A.; Rigor, I.; Parkinson, C. L.; Weatherly, J. W.; Nghiem, S. V.; Proshutinsky, A.; Overland, J. E.

2003-12-01

Recent studies indicate that the Arctic sea ice cover is undergoing significant climate-induced changes, affecting both its extent and thickness. Satellite-derived estimates of Arctic sea ice extent suggest a reduction of about 3% per decade since 1978. Ice thickness data from submarines suggest a net thinning of the sea ice cover since 1958. Changes (including oscillatory changes) in atmospheric circulation and the thermohaline properties of the upper ocean have also been observed. These changes impact not only the Arctic, but the global climate system and are likely accelerated by such processes as the ice-albedo feedback. It is important to continue and expand long-term observations of these changes to (a) improve the fundamental understanding of the role of the sea ice cover in the global climate system and (b) use the changes in the sea ice cover as an early indicator of climate change. This is a formidable task that spans a range of temporal and spatial scales. Fortunately, there are numerous tools that can be brought to bear on this task, including satellite remote sensing, autonomous buoys, ocean moorings, field campaigns and numerical models. We suggest the integrated and coordinated use of these tools during the International Polar Year to monitor the state of the Arctic sea ice cover and investigate its governing processes. For example, satellite remote sensing provides the large-scale snapshots of such basic parameters as ice distribution, melt zone, and cloud fraction at intervals of half a day to a week. Buoys and moorings can contribute high temporal resolution and can measure parameters currently unavailable from space including ice thickness, internal ice temperature, and ocean temperature and salinity. Field campaigns can be used to explore, in detail, the processes that govern the ice cover. Numerical models can be used to assess the character of the changes in the ice cover and predict their impacts on the rest of the climate system. This work affords extraordinary opportunities for outreach activities, because of the public interest in both the Arctic and climate change. Data can be streamed to public web sites in near real time, as can photographs and commentaries from field camps. The breadth of activities affords considerable opportunities to engage the next generation of researchers in such diverse fields as computer science, engineering, and geophysics.

Modeling Bird Migration under Climate Change: A Mechanistic Approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, James A.

2009-01-01

How will migrating birds respond to changes in the environment under climate change? What are the implications for migratory success under the various accelerated climate change scenarios as forecast by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change? How will reductions or increased variability in the number or quality of wetland stop-over sites affect migratory bird species? The answers to these questions have important ramifications for conservation biology and wildlife management. Here, we describe the use of continental scale simulation modeling to explore how spatio-temporal changes along migratory flyways affect en-route migration success. We use an individually based, biophysical, mechanistic, bird migration model to simulate the movement of shorebirds in North America as a tool to study how such factors as drought and wetland loss may impact migratory success and modify migration patterns. Our model is driven by remote sensing and climate data and incorporates important landscape variables. The energy budget components of the model include resting, foraging, and flight, but presently predation is ignored. Results/Conclusions We illustrate our model by studying the spring migration of sandpipers through the Great Plains to their Arctic breeding grounds. Why many species of shorebirds have shown significant declines remains a puzzle. Shorebirds are sensitive to stop-over quality and spacing because of their need for frequent refueling stops and their opportunistic feeding patterns. We predict bird "hydrographs that is, stop-over frequency with latitude, that are in agreement with the literature. Mean stop-over durations predicted from our model for nominal cases also are consistent with the limited, but available data. For the shorebird species simulated, our model predicts that shorebirds exhibit significant plasticity and are able to shift their migration patterns in response to changing drought conditions. However, the question remains as to whether this behavior can be maintained over increasing and sustained environmental change. Also, the problem is much more complex than described by the current processes captured in our model. We have taken some important and interesting steps, and our model does demonstrate how local scale information about individual stop-over sites can be linked into the migratory flyway as a whole. We are incorporating additional, species specific, mechanistic processes to better reflect different climate change scenarios

Ecological site-based assessments of wind and water erosion: informing accelerated soil erosion management in rangelands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Webb, Nicholas P.; Herrick, Jeffrey E.; Duniway, Michael C.

2014-01-01

Accelerated soil erosion occurs when anthropogenic processes modify soil, vegetation or climatic conditions causing erosion rates at a location to exceed their natural variability. Identifying where and when accelerated erosion occurs is a critical first step toward its effective management. Here we explore how erosion assessments structured in the context of ecological sites (a land classification based on soils, landscape setting and ecological potential) and their vegetation states (plant assemblages that may change due to management) can inform systems for reducing accelerated soil erosion in rangelands. We evaluated aeolian horizontal sediment flux and fluvial sediment erosion rates for five ecological sites in southern New Mexico, USA, using monitoring data and rangeland-specific wind and water erosion models. Across the ecological sites, plots in shrub-encroached and shrub-dominated vegetation states were consistently susceptible to aeolian sediment flux and fluvial sediment erosion. Both processes were found to be highly variable for grassland and grass-succulent states across the ecological sites at the plot scale (0.25 Ha). We identify vegetation thresholds that define cover levels below which rapid (exponential) increases in aeolian sediment flux and fluvial sediment erosion occur across the ecological sites and vegetation states. Aeolian sediment flux and fluvial erosion in the study area can be effectively controlled when bare ground cover is 100 cm in length is less than ~35%. Land use and management activities that alter cover levels such that they cross thresholds, and/or drive vegetation state changes, may increase the susceptibility of areas to erosion. Land use impacts that are constrained within the range of natural variability should not result in accelerated soil erosion. Evaluating land condition against the erosion thresholds identified here will enable identification of areas susceptible to accelerated soil erosion and the development of practical management solutions.

Gauging climate change effects at local scales: weather-based indices to monitor insect harassment in caribou.

PubMed

Witter, Leslie A; Johnson, Chris J; Croft, Bruno; Gunn, Anne; Poirier, Lisa M

2012-09-01

Climate change is occurring at an accelerated rate in the Arctic. Insect harassment may be an important link between increased summer temperature and reduced body condition in caribou and reindeer (both Rangifer tarandus). To examine the effects of climate change at a scale relevant to Rangifer herds, we developed monitoring indices using weather to predict activity of parasitic insects across the central Arctic. During 2007-2009, we recorded weather conditions and used carbon dioxide baited traps to monitor activity of mosquitoes (Culicidae), black flies (Simuliidae), and oestrid flies (Oestridae) on the post-calving and summer range of the Bathurst barren-ground caribou (Rangifer tarandus groenlandicus) herd in Northwest Territories and Nunavut, Canada. We developed statistical models representing hypotheses about effects of weather, habitat, location, and temporal variables on insect activity. We used multinomial logistic regression to model mosquito and black fly activity, and logistic regression to model oestrid fly presence. We used information theory to select models to predict activity levels of insects. Using historical weather data, we used hindcasting to develop a chronology of insect activity on the Bathurst range from 1957 to 2008. Oestrid presence and mosquito and black fly activity levels were explained by temperature. Wind speed, light intensity, barometric pressure, relative humidity, vegetation, topography, location, time of day, and growing degree-days also affected mosquito and black fly levels. High predictive ability of all models justified the use of weather to index insect activity. Retrospective analyses indicated conditions favoring mosquito activity declined since the late 1950s, while predicted black fly and oestrid activity increased. Our indices can be used as monitoring tools to gauge potential changes in insect harassment due to climate change at scales relevant to caribou herds.

Chile confronts its environmental health future after 25 years of accelerated growth

PubMed Central

Pino, Paulina; Iglesias, Verónica; Garreaud, René; Cortés, Sandra; Canals, Mauricio; Folch, Walter; Burgos, Soledad; Levy, Karen; Naeher, Luke P.; Steenland, Kyle

2015-01-01

Background Chile has recently been reclassified by the World Bank from an upper middle income country to a higher income country. There has been great progress in the last 20–30 years in relation to air and water pollution in Chile. Yet after 25 years of unrestrained growth there remain clear challenges posed by air and water, as well as climate change. Methods: In late 2013 a three-day workshop on environmental health was held in Santiago, bringing together researchers and government policy makers. As a follow-up to that workshop, here we review the progress made in environmental health in the past 20–30 years, and discuss the challenges of the future. We focus on air and water pollution, and climate change, which we believe are among the most important areas of environmental health in Chile. Results Air pollution in some cities remains among the highest in the continent. Potable water is generally available, but weak state supervision has led to serious outbreaks of infectious disease and ongoing issues with arsenic exposure in some regions. Climate change modeling in Chile is quite sophisticated, and a number of the impacts of climate change can be reasonably predicted in terms of which areas of the country are most likely to be affected by increased temperature and decreased availability of water, as well as expansion of vector territory. Some health effects, including change vector-borne diseases and excess heat mortality, can be predicted. However, there has yet to be an integration of such research with government planning. Conclusion While great progress has been made, currently there are a number of problems. We suspect that the Chilean experience in environmental health may be of some use for other Latin American countries with rapid economic development. PMID:26615070

The Changing Seasonality of Tundra Nutrient Cycling: Implications for Arctic Ecosystem Function

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weintraub, M. N.; Steltzer, H.; Sullivan, P.; Schimel, J.; Wallenstein, M. D.; Darrouzet-Nardi, A.; Segal, A. D.

2011-12-01

Arctic soils contain large stores of carbon (C) and may act as a significant CO2 source with warming. However, the key to understanding tundra soil processes is nitrogen (N), as both plant growth and decomposition are N limited. However, current models of tundra ecosystems assume that while N limits plant growth, C limits decomposition. In addition, N availability is strongly seasonal with relatively high concentrations early in the growing season followed by a pronounced crash. We need to understand the controls on this seasonality to predict responses to climate change, but there are multiple questions that need answers: 1) What causes the seasonality in N? 2) Does microbial activity switch seasonally between C and N limitation? 3) How will a lengthening of the growing season alter overall ecosystem C and N dynamics, as a result of differential extension of the periods before and after the nutrient crash? We hypothesized that microbial activity is C limited early in the growing season, when N availability is higher and root exudate C is unavailable, and that microbial activity becomes N limited in response to plant N uptake and immobilization stimulated by root C. To address these questions we are conducting an accelerated snow-melt X warming field experiment in an Alaskan moist acidic arctic tundra community, and following plant and soil dynamics. Changes in the timing of C and N interactions in the different treatments will enable us to develop an enhanced mechanistic understanding of why the nutrient crash occurs and what the implications are for a lengthening of the arctic growing season. In 2010 we successfully accelerated snowmelt by 4 days. Both earlier snowmelt and warming accelerated early season plant life history events, with a few exceptions. However, responses to the combined treatment could not always be predicted from single factor effects. End of season life history events occurred later in response to the treatments, again with a few exceptions. Continuous measurements of plant community NDVI suggest that the peak of the plant growing season (i.e. maximum greenness) ended 4 days earlier in response to earlier snowmelt and climate warming, due to earlier senescence by birch. Root growth was significantly delayed in the early snowmelt plots and accelerated in the combined treatment. Despite the changes in root growth, though, we did not observe significant treatment effects on soil N availability, which tended to decline in July in all treatments. In 2011 we achieved a snowmelt acceleration of 15 days while control plots were snowfree on almost the same date as in 2010. This relatively large treatment effect should enable us to more conclusively determine the extent to which the timing of plant growth regulates soil N availability, but final results from the 2011 are currently pending.

Modeling the impact of climate warming on the range of brook trout in the Blue Ridge Mountains, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bartlett, M. G.

2012-12-01

Brook trout in the Eastern United States (Salvelinus fontinalis) thrive in a relatively narrow range of stream temperatures. Over the past several centuries, the introduction of competitive species has pushed brook trout to the cooler, upstream margins of what use to be a much more extensive range within most drainages. Over the next several decades, climate change may put further thermal pressure on the species, increasing the fragmentation of their distribution and shrinking their present range. Because the size and connectivity of habitats seem to influence the persistence of local populations, climate warming leading to increased fragmentation of remaining habitats could accelerated species decline. Using the Regional Hydrological and Ecological Simulation System (RHYSSys), I modeled the projected habitat changes for a group of native brook trout streams in the Blue Ridge Mountains of South-Central Virginia, USA. The modeling process is illustrative of the need for better understanding of the couplings that exist between geomorphology, hydrology, and ecology, particularly in mountain environments. Model results are quantified according to the degree of decrease in stream-miles of habitat and the increase in the fragmentation of the habitat as a function of the warming rate (degrees per decade). These results may help inform habitat management strategies for the coming several decades in the region, and the modeling process helps highlight the need for more refined understanding of climate change's impacts on habitability.

Storage and release of organic carbon from glaciers and ice sheets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hood, Eran; Battin, Tom J.; Fellman, Jason; O'Neel, Shad; Spencer, Robert G. M.

2015-02-01

Polar ice sheets and mountain glaciers, which cover roughly 11% of the Earth's land surface, store organic carbon from local and distant sources and then release it to downstream environments. Climate-driven changes to glacier runoff are expected to be larger than climate impacts on other components of the hydrological cycle, and may represent an important flux of organic carbon. A compilation of published data on dissolved organic carbon from glaciers across five continents reveals that mountain and polar glaciers represent a quantitatively important store of organic carbon. The Antarctic Ice Sheet is the repository of most of the roughly 6 petagrams (Pg) of organic carbon stored in glacier ice, but the annual release of glacier organic carbon is dominated by mountain glaciers in the case of dissolved organic carbon and the Greenland Ice Sheet in the case of particulate organic carbon. Climate change contributes to these fluxes: approximately 13% of the annual flux of glacier dissolved organic carbon is a result of glacier mass loss. These losses are expected to accelerate, leading to a cumulative loss of roughly 15 teragrams (Tg) of glacial dissolved organic carbon by 2050 due to climate change -- equivalent to about half of the annual flux of dissolved organic carbon from the Amazon River. Thus, glaciers constitute a key link between terrestrial and aquatic carbon fluxes, and will be of increasing importance in land-to-ocean fluxes of organic carbon in glacierized regions.

Storage and release of organic carbon from glaciers and ice sheets

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hood, Eran; Battin, Tom J.; Fellman, Jason; O'Neel, Shad; Spencer, Robert G. M.

2015-01-01

Polar ice sheets and mountain glaciers, which cover roughly 11% of the Earth's land surface, store organic carbon from local and distant sources and then release it to downstream environments. Climate-driven changes to glacier runoff are expected to be larger than climate impacts on other components of the hydrological cycle, and may represent an important flux of organic carbon. A compilation of published data on dissolved organic carbon from glaciers across five continents reveals that mountain and polar glaciers represent a quantitatively important store of organic carbon. The Antarctic Ice Sheet is the repository of most of the roughly 6 petagrams (Pg) of organic carbon stored in glacier ice, but the annual release of glacier organic carbon is dominated by mountain glaciers in the case of dissolved organic carbon and the Greenland Ice Sheet in the case of particulate organic carbon. Climate change contributes to these fluxes: approximately 13% of the annual flux of glacier dissolved organic carbon is a result of glacier mass loss. These losses are expected to accelerate, leading to a cumulative loss of roughly 15 teragrams (Tg) of glacial dissolved organic carbon by 2050 due to climate change — equivalent to about half of the annual flux of dissolved organic carbon from the Amazon River. Thus, glaciers constitute a key link between terrestrial and aquatic carbon fluxes, and will be of increasing importance in land-to-ocean fluxes of organic carbon in glacierized regions.

Synergistic impacts of deforestation, climate change and fire on the future biomes distribution in Amazonia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sampaio, G.; Cardoso, M. F.; Nobre, C. A.; Salazar, L. F.

2013-05-01

Several studies indicate future increase of environmental risks for the ecosystems in the Amazon region as a result of climate and land-use change, and their synergistic interactions. Modeling studies (e.g. Oyama and Nobre 2004, Salazar et al. 2007, Malhi et al. 2008) project rapid and irreversible replacement of forests by savannas with large-scale losses of biodiversity and livelihoods for people in the region. This process is referred to as the Amazon Dieback, where accelerated plant mortality due to environmental changes lead to forest collapse and savannas expansion after "tipping points" in climate and land surface changes are achieved. In this study we performed new analyses to quantify how deforestation, climate change and fire may combine to affect the distribution of major biomes in Amazonia. Changes in land use consider deforestation scenarios of 0%, 20%, 40%, and 50% (Sampaio et al., 2007), with and without fires (Cardoso et al., 2008), under the two greenhouse gases scenarios B1 and A2 and three "representative concentration pathways" (RCPs): 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5, for years 2015-2034 and 2040-2059 ("2025" and "2050" time-slices), from IPCC AR4 and CMIP5. The results show that the area affected in scenarios A2 and RCP 8.5 is larger than in the climate scenario B1 and RCP 2.6, and in both cases the effect is progressively higher in time. Most important changes occur in the East and South of the Amazon, with replacement of tropical forest by seasonal forest and savanna. The effect of fire in this region is important in all scenarios. The Northwest Amazon presents the smallest changes in the area of tropical forest, indicating that even for substantial land-use modifications and global climate change, the resulting atmospheric conditions would still support tropical forest in the region. In summary, we conclude that the synergistic combination of deforestation, climate change resulting from global warming, and the potential for higher fire occurrence may lead to important impacts that add considerably to the vulnerability of tropical forest ecosystems in the study region. REFERENCES Cardoso, M. F. ; Nobre, C. A. ; Sampaio, G. ; Hirota, M. ; Valeriano, D. ; Câmara, G. Long-term potential for tropical-forest degradation due to deforestation and fires in the Brazilian Amazon. Biologia (Bratislava), v. 64, p. 433-437, 2009. Malhi Y, et al. (2008) Climate change, deforestation, and the fate of the Amazon. Science 319:169-172. Oyama, M.D. and C.A. Nobre (2004), A simple potencial vegetation model for coupling with the Simple Biosphere Model (SIB). Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia, v. 19, n. 2, p. 203-216, 2004. Salazar, L. F., C. A. Nobre, and M. D. Oyama (2007), Climate change consequences on the biome distribution in tropical South America, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L09708, doi:10.1029/2007GL029695 Sampaio, G., C. A. Nobre, M. H. Costa, P. Satyamurty, B. S. Soares-Filho and, M. Cardoso (2007), Regional climate change over eastern Amazonia caused by pasture and soybean cropland expansion. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L17709, doi:10.1029/2007GL030612.

Changing Arctic ecosystems--the role of ecosystem changes across the Boreal-Arctic transition zone on the distribution and abundance of wildlife populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

McNew, Lance; Handel, Colleen M.; Pearce, John; DeGange, Anthony R.; Holland-Bartels, Leslie; Whalen, Mary

2013-01-01

Arctic and boreal ecosystems provide important breeding habitat for more than half of North America’s migratory birds as well as many resident species. Northern landscapes are projected to experience more pronounced climate-related changes in habitat than most other regions. These changes include increases in shrub growth, conversion of tundra to forest, alteration of wetlands, shifts in species’ composition, and changes in the frequency and scale of fires and insect outbreaks. Changing habitat conditions, in turn, may have significant effects on the distribution and abundance of wildlife in these critical northern ecosystems. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is conducting studies in the Boreal–Arctic transition zone of Alaska, an environment of accelerated change in this sensitive margin between Arctic tundra and boreal forest.

Forest stand growth dynamics in Central Europe have accelerated since 1870

PubMed Central

Pretzsch, Hans; Biber, Peter; Schütze, Gerhard; Uhl, Enno; Rötzer, Thomas

2014-01-01

Forest ecosystems have been exposed to climate change for more than 100 years, whereas the consequences on forest growth remain elusive. Based on the oldest existing experimental forest plots in Central Europe, we show that, currently, the dominant tree species Norway spruce and European beech exhibit significantly faster tree growth (+32 to 77%), stand volume growth (+10 to 30%) and standing stock accumulation (+6 to 7%) than in 1960. Stands still follow similar general allometric rules, but proceed more rapidly through usual trajectories. As forest stands develop faster, tree numbers are currently 17–20% lower than in past same-aged stands. Self-thinning lines remain constant, while growth rates increase indicating the stock of resources have not changed, while growth velocity and turnover have altered. Statistical analyses of the experimental plots, and application of an ecophysiological model, suggest that mainly the rise in temperature and extended growing seasons contribute to increased growth acceleration, particularly on fertile sites. PMID:25216297

National Hydropower Plant Dataset, Version 1 (Update FY18Q2)

DOE Data Explorer

Samu, Nicole; Kao, Shih-Chieh; O'Connor, Patrick; Johnson, Megan; Uria-Martinez, Rocio; McManamay, Ryan

2016-09-30

The National Hydropower Plant Dataset, Version 1, Update FY18Q2, includes geospatial point-level locations and key characteristics of existing hydropower plants in the United States that are currently online. These data are a subset extracted from NHAAP’s Existing Hydropower Assets (EHA) dataset, which is a cornerstone of NHAAP’s EHA effort that has supported multiple U.S. hydropower R&D research initiatives related to market acceleration, environmental impact reduction, technology-to-market activities, and climate change impact assessment.

Contrasting growth responses of dominant peatland plants to warming and vegetation composition.

PubMed

Walker, Tom N; Ward, Susan E; Ostle, Nicholas J; Bardgett, Richard D

2015-05-01

There is growing recognition that changes in vegetation composition can strongly influence peatland carbon cycling, with potential feedbacks to future climate. Nevertheless, despite accelerated climate and vegetation change in this ecosystem, the growth responses of peatland plant species to combined warming and vegetation change are unknown. Here, we used a field warming and vegetation removal experiment to test the hypothesis that dominant species from the three plant functional types present (dwarf-shrubs: Calluna vulgaris; graminoids: Eriophorum vaginatum; bryophytes: Sphagnum capillifolium) contrast in their growth responses to warming and the presence or absence of other plant functional types. Warming was accomplished using open top chambers, which raised air temperature by approximately 0.35 °C, and we measured air and soil microclimate as potential mechanisms through which both experimental factors could influence growth. We found that only Calluna growth increased with experimental warming (by 20%), whereas the presence of dwarf-shrubs and bryophytes increased growth of Sphagnum (46%) and Eriophorum (20%), respectively. Sphagnum growth was also negatively related to soil temperature, which was lower when dwarf-shrubs were present. Dwarf-shrubs may therefore promote Sphagnum growth by cooling the peat surface. Conversely, the effect of bryophyte presence on Eriophorum growth was not related to any change in microclimate, suggesting other factors play a role. In conclusion, our findings reveal contrasting abiotic and biotic controls over dominant peatland plant growth, suggesting that community composition and carbon cycling could be modified by simultaneous climate and vegetation change.

Chasing a changing climate: Reproductive and dispersal traits predict how sessile species respond to global warming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Archambault, Jennifer M.; Cope, W. Gregory; Kwak, Thomas J.

2018-01-01

AimStudies of species' range shifts have become increasingly relevant for understanding ecology and biogeography in the face of accelerated global change. The combination of limited mobility and imperilled status places some species at a potentially greater risk of range loss, extirpation or extinction due to climate change. To assess the ability of organisms with limited movement and dispersal capabilities to track shifts associated with climate change, we evaluated reproductive and dispersal traits of freshwater mussels (Unionida), sessile invertebrates that require species‐specific fish for larval dispersal.LocationNorth American Atlantic Slope rivers.MethodsTo understand how unionid mussels may cope with and adapt to current and future warming trends, we identified mechanisms that facilitated their colonization of the northern Atlantic Slope river basins in North America after the Last Glacial Maximum. We compiled species occurrence and life history trait information for each of 55 species, and then selected life history traits for which ample data were available (larval brooding duration, host fish specificity, host infection strategy, and body size) and analysed whether the trait state for each was related to mussel distribution in Atlantic Slope rivers.ResultsBrooding duration (p < .01) and host fish specificity (p = .02) were significantly related to mussel species distribution. Long‐term brooders were more likely than short‐term brooders to colonize formerly glaciated rivers, as were host generalists compared to specialists. Body size and host infection strategy were not predictive of movement into formerly glaciated rivers (p > .10).Main conclusionsOur results are potentially applicable to many species for which life history traits have not been well‐documented, because reproductive and dispersal traits in unionid mussels typically follow phylogenetic relationships. These findings may help resource managers prioritize species according to climate change vulnerability and predict which species might become further imperilled with climate warming. Finally, we suggest that similar trait‐based decision support frameworks may be applicable for other movement limited taxa.

Thawing permafrost increases old soil and autotrophic respiration in tundra: partitioning ecosystem respiration using δ(13) C and ∆(14) C.

PubMed

Hicks Pries, Caitlin E; Schuur, Edward A G; Crummer, Kathryn G

2013-02-01

Ecosystem respiration (Reco ) is one of the largest terrestrial carbon (C) fluxes. The effect of climate change on Reco depends on the responses of its autotrophic and heterotrophic components. How autotrophic and heterotrophic respiration sources respond to climate change is especially important in ecosystems underlain by permafrost. Permafrost ecosystems contain vast stores of soil C (1672 Pg) and are located in northern latitudes where climate change is accelerated. Warming will cause a positive feedback to climate change if heterotrophic respiration increases without corresponding increases in primary production. We quantified the response of autotrophic and heterotrophic respiration to permafrost thaw across the 2008 and 2009 growing seasons. We partitioned Reco using Δ(14) C and δ(13) C into four sources-two autotrophic (above - and belowground plant structures) and two heterotrophic (young and old soil). We sampled the Δ(14) C and δ(13) C of sources using incubations and the Δ(14) C and δ(13) C of Reco using field measurements. We then used a Bayesian mixing model to solve for the most likely contributions of each source to Reco . Autotrophic respiration ranged from 40 to 70% of Reco and was greatest at the height of the growing season. Old soil heterotrophic respiration ranged from 6 to 18% of Reco and was greatest where permafrost thaw was deepest. Overall, growing season fluxes of autotrophic and old soil heterotrophic respiration increased as permafrost thaw deepened. Areas with greater thaw also had the greatest primary production. Warming in permafrost ecosystems therefore leads to increased plant and old soil respiration that is initially compensated by increased net primary productivity. However, barring large shifts in plant community composition, future increases in old soil respiration will likely outpace productivity, resulting in a positive feedback to climate change. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Climate is changing, everything is flowing, stationarity is immortal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koutsoyiannis, Demetris; Montanari, Alberto

2015-04-01

There is no doubt that climate is changing -- and ever has been. The environment is also changing and in the last decades, as a result of demographic change and technological advancement, environmental change has been accelerating. These affect also the hydrological processes, whose changes in connection with rapidly changing human systems have been the focus of the new scientific decade 2013-2022 of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences, entitled "Panta Rhei - Everything Flows". In view of the changing systems, it has recently suggested that, when dealing with water management and hydrological extremes, stationarity is no longer a proper assumption. Hence, it was proposed that hydrological processes should be treated as nonstationary. Two main reasons contributed to this perception. First, the climate models project a future hydroclimate that will be different from the current one. Second, as streamflow record become longer, they indicate the presence of upward or downward trends. However, till now hydroclimatic projections made in the recent past have not been verified. At the same time, evidence from quite longer records, instrumental or proxy, suggest that local trends are omnipresent but not monotonic; rather at some time upward trends turn to downward ones and vice versa. These observations suggest that improvident dismiss of stationarity and adoption of nonstationary descriptions based either on climate model outputs or observed trends may entail risks. The risks stem from the facts that the future can be different from what was deterministically projected, that deterministic projections are associated with an illusion of decreased uncertainty, as well as that nonstationary models fitted on observed data may have lower predictive capacity than simpler stationary ones. In most of the cases, what is actually needed is to revisit the concept of stationarity and try to apply it carefully, making it consistent with the presence of local trends, possibly incorporating information from deterministic predictions, whenever these prove to be reliable, and estimating the total predictive uncertainty.