Loss of sea ice in the Arctic.

PubMed

Perovich, Donald K; Richter-Menge, Jacqueline A

2009-01-01

The Arctic sea ice cover is in decline. The areal extent of the ice cover has been decreasing for the past few decades at an accelerating rate. Evidence also points to a decrease in sea ice thickness and a reduction in the amount of thicker perennial sea ice. A general global warming trend has made the ice cover more vulnerable to natural fluctuations in atmospheric and oceanic forcing. The observed reduction in Arctic sea ice is a consequence of both thermodynamic and dynamic processes, including such factors as preconditioning of the ice cover, overall warming trends, changes in cloud coverage, shifts in atmospheric circulation patterns, increased export of older ice out of the Arctic, advection of ocean heat from the Pacific and North Atlantic, enhanced solar heating of the ocean, and the ice-albedo feedback. The diminishing Arctic sea ice is creating social, political, economic, and ecological challenges.

Cloud Response to Arctic Sea Ice Loss and Implications for Feedbacks in the CESM1 Climate Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morrison, A.; Kay, J. E.; Chepfer, H.; Guzman, R.; Bonazzola, M.

2017-12-01

Clouds have the potential to accelerate or slow the rate of Arctic sea ice loss through their radiative influence on the surface. Cloud feedbacks can therefore play into Arctic warming as clouds respond to changes in sea ice cover. As the Arctic moves toward an ice-free state, understanding how cloud - sea ice relationships change in response to sea ice loss is critical for predicting the future climate trajectory. From satellite observations we know the effect of present-day sea ice cover on clouds, but how will clouds respond to sea ice loss as the Arctic transitions to a seasonally open water state? In this study we use a lidar simulator to first evaluate cloud - sea ice relationships in the Community Earth System Model (CESM1) against present-day observations (2006-2015). In the current climate, the cloud response to sea ice is well-represented in CESM1: we see no summer cloud response to changes in sea ice cover, but more fall clouds over open water than over sea ice. Since CESM1 is credible for the current Arctic climate, we next assess if our process-based understanding of Arctic cloud feedbacks related to sea ice loss is relevant for understanding future Arctic clouds. In the future Arctic, summer cloud structure continues to be insensitive to surface conditions. As the Arctic warms in the fall, however, the boundary layer deepens and cloud fraction increases over open ocean during each consecutive decade from 2020 - 2100. This study will also explore seasonal changes in cloud properties such as opacity and liquid water path. Results thus far suggest that a positive fall cloud - sea ice feedback exists in the present-day and future Arctic climate.

Recent Ice Loss from the Fleming and Other Glaciers, Wordie Bay, West Antarctic Peninsula

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rignot, E.; Casassa, G.; Gogineni, S.; Kanagaratnam, P.; Krabill, W.; Pritchard, H.; Rivera, A.; Thomas, R.; Turner, J.; Vaughan, D.

2005-01-01

Satellite radar interferometry data from 1995 to 2004, and airborne ice thickness data from 2002, reveal that the glaciers flowing into former Wordie Ice Shelf, West Antarctic Peninsula, discharge 6.8 +/- 0.3 km(exp 3)/yr of ice, which is 84 +/- 30 percent larger than a snow accumulation of 3.7 +/- 0.8 km(exp 3)/yr over a 6,300 km(exp 2) drainage basin. Airborne and ICESat laser altimetry elevation data reveal glacier thinning at rates up to 2 m/yr. Fifty km from its ice front, Fleming Glacier flows 50 percent faster than it did in 1974 prior to the main collapse of Wordie Ice Shelf. We conclude that the glaciers accelerated following ice shelf removal, and have been thinning and losing mass to the ocean over the last decade. This and other observations suggest that the mass loss from the northern part of the Peninsula is not negligible at present.

Rapid Ice Loss at Vatnajokull,Iceland Since Late 1990s Constrained by Synthetic Aperture Radar Interferometry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, W.; Amelung, F.; Dixon, T. H.; Wdowinski, S.

2012-12-01

Synthetic aperture radar interferometry time series is applied over Vatnajokull, Iceland by using 15 years ERS data. Ice loss at Vatnajokull accelerates since late 1990s especially after 21th century. Clear uplift signal due to ice mass loss is detected. The rebound signal is generally linear and increases a little bit after 2000. The relative annual velocity (GPS station 7485 as reference) is about 12 mm/yr at the ice cap edge, which matches the previous studies using GPS. The standard deviation compared to 11 GPS stations in this area is about 2 mm/yr. A relative-value modeling method ignoring the effect of viscous flow is chosen assuming elastic half space earth. The final ice loss estimation - 83 cm/yr - matches the climatology model with ground observations. Small Baseline Subsets is applied for time series analysis. Orbit error coupling with long wavelength phase trend due to horizontal plate motion is removed based on a second polynomial model. For simplicity, we do not consider atmospheric delay in this area because of no complex topography and small-scale turbulence is eliminated well after long-term average when calculating the annual mean velocity. Some unwrapping error still exits because of low coherence. Other uncertainties can be the basic assumption of ice loss pattern and spatial variation of the elastic parameters. It is the first time we apply InSAR time series for ice mass balance study and provide detailed error and uncertainty analysis. The successful of this application proves InSAR as an option for mass balance study and it is also important for validation of different ice loss estimation techniques.

Accelerating ice loss from the fastest Greenland and Antarctic glaciers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, R.; Frederick, E.; Li, J.; Krabill, W.; Manizade, S.; Paden, J.; Sonntag, J.; Swift, R.; Yungel, J.

2011-05-01

Ice discharge from the fastest glaciers draining the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets - Jakobshavn Isbrae (JI) and Pine Island Glacier (PIG)- continues to increase, and is now more than double that needed to balance snowfall in their catchment basins. Velocity increase probably resulted from decreased buttressing from thinning (and, for JI, breakup) of their floating ice tongues, and from reduced basal drag as grounding lines on both glaciers retreat. JI flows directly into the ocean as it becomes afloat, and here creep rates are proportional to the cube of bed depth. Rapid thinning of the PIG ice shelf increases the likelihood of its breakup, and subsequent rapid increase in discharge velocity. Results from a simple model indicate that JI velocities should almost double to >20 km a-1 by 2015, with velocities on PIG increasing to >10 km a-1 after breakup of its ice shelf. These high velocities would probably be sustained over many decades as the glaciers retreat within their long, very deep troughs. Resulting sea-level rise would average about 1.5 mm a-1.

Accelerating Ice Loss from the Fastest Greenland and Antarctic Glaciers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thomas, R.; Frederick, E.; Li, J.; Krabill, W.; Manizade, S.; Paden, J.; Sonntag, J.; Swift, R.; Yungel, J.

2011-01-01

Ice discharge from the fastest glaciers draining the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets . Jakobshavn Isbrae (JI) and Pine Island Glacier (PIG). continues to increase, and is now more than double that needed to balance snowfall in their catchment basins. Velocity increase probably resulted from decreased buttressing from thinning (and, for JI, breakup) of their floating ice tongues, and from reduced basal drag as grounding lines on both glaciers retreat. JI flows directly into the ocean as it becomes afloat, and here creep rates are proportional to the cube of bed depth. Rapid thinning of the PIG ice shelf increases the likelihood of its breakup, and subsequent rapid increase in discharge velocity. Results from a simple model indicate that JI velocities should almost double to >20 km/a by 2015, with velocities on PIG increasing to >10 km/a after breakup of its ice shelf. These high velocities would probably be sustained over many decades as the glaciers retreat within their long, very deep troughs. Resulting sea ]level rise would average about 1.5 mm/a.

Recent high-resolution Antarctic ice velocity maps reveal increased mass loss in Wilkes Land, East Antarctica.

PubMed

Shen, Qiang; Wang, Hansheng; Shum, C K; Jiang, Liming; Hsu, Hou Tse; Dong, Jinglong

2018-03-14

We constructed Antarctic ice velocity maps from Landsat 8 images for the years 2014 and 2015 at a high spatial resolution (100 m). These maps were assembled from 10,690 scenes of displacement vectors inferred from more than 10,000 optical images acquired from December 2013 through March 2016. We estimated the mass discharge of the Antarctic ice sheet in 2008, 2014, and 2015 using the Landsat ice velocity maps, interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR)-derived ice velocity maps (~2008) available from prior studies, and ice thickness data. An increased mass discharge (53 ± 14 Gt yr -1 ) was found in the East Indian Ocean sector since 2008 due to unexpected widespread glacial acceleration in Wilkes Land, East Antarctica, while the other five oceanic sectors did not exhibit significant changes. However, present-day increased mass loss was found by previous studies predominantly in west Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula. The newly discovered increased mass loss in Wilkes Land suggests that the ocean heat flux may already be influencing ice dynamics in the marine-based sector of the East Antarctic ice sheet (EAIS). The marine-based sector could be adversely impacted by ongoing warming in the Southern Ocean, and this process may be conducive to destabilization.

How much can Greenland melt? An upper bound on mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet through surface melting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, X.; Bassis, J. N.

2015-12-01

With observations showing accelerated mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet due to surface melt, the Greenland Ice Sheet is becoming one of the most significant contributors to sea level rise. The contribution of the Greenland Ice Sheet o sea level rise is likely to accelerate in the coming decade and centuries as atmospheric temperatures continue to rise, potentially triggering ever larger surface melt rates. However, at present considerable uncertainty remains in projecting the contribution to sea level of the Greenland Ice Sheet both due to uncertainty in atmospheric forcing and the ice sheet response to climate forcing. Here we seek an upper bound on the contribution of surface melt from the Greenland to sea level rise in the coming century using a surface energy balance model coupled to an englacial model. We use IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP8.5, RCP6, RCP4.5, RCP2.6) climate scenarios from an ensemble of global climate models in our simulations to project the maximum rate of ice volume loss and related sea-level rise associated with surface melting. To estimate the upper bound, we assume the Greenland Ice Sheet is perpetually covered in thick clouds, which maximize longwave radiation to the ice sheet. We further assume that deposition of black carbon darkens the ice substantially turning it nearly black, substantially reducing its albedo. Although assuming that all melt water not stored in the snow/firn is instantaneously transported off the ice sheet increases mass loss in the short term, refreezing of retained water warms the ice and may lead to more melt in the long term. Hence we examine both assumptions and use the scenario that leads to the most surface melt by 2100. Preliminary models results suggest that under the most aggressive climate forcing, surface melt from the Greenland Ice Sheet contributes ~1 m to sea level by the year 2100. This is a significant contribution and ignores dynamic effects. We also examined a lower bound

Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Temperature, Melt, and Mass Loss: 2000-2006

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hall, Dorothy K.; Williams, Richard S., Jr.; Luthcke, Scott B.; DiGirolamo, Nocolo

2007-01-01

Extensive melt on the Greenland Ice Sheet has been documented by a variety of ground and satellite measurements in recent years. If the well-documented warming continues in the Arctic, melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet will likely accelerate, contributing to sea-level rise. Modeling studies indicate that an annual or summer temperature rise of 1 C on the ice sheet will increase melt by 20-50% therefore, surface temperature is one of the most important ice-sheet parameters to study for analysis of changes in the mass balance of the ice-sheet. The Greenland Ice Sheet contains enough water to produce a rise in eustatic sea level of up to 7.0 m if the ice were to melt completely. However, even small changes (centimeters) in sea level would cause important economic and societal consequences in the world's major coastal cities thus it is extremely important to monitor changes in the ice-sheet surface temperature and to ultimately quantify these changes in terms of amount of sea-level rise. We have compiled a high-resolution, daily time series of surface temperature of the Greenland Ice Sheet, using the I-km resolution, clear-sky land-surface temperature (LST) standard product from the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), from 2000 - 2006. We also use Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data, averaged over 10-day periods, to measure change in mass of the ice sheet as it melt and snow accumulates. Surface temperature can be used to determine frequency of surface melt, timing of the start and the end of the melt season, and duration of melt. In conjunction with GRACE data, it can also be used to analyze timing of ice-sheet mass loss and gain.

Dynamic Inland Propagation of Thinning Due to Ice Loss at the Margins of the Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Wei Li; Li, Jun J.; Zwally, H. Jay

2012-01-01

Mass-balance analysis of the Greenland ice sheet based on surface elevation changes observed by the European Remote-sensing Satellite (ERS) (1992-2002) and Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) (2003-07) indicates that the strongly increased mass loss at lower elevations (<2000 m) of the ice sheet, as observed during 2003-07, appears to induce interior ice thinning at higher elevations. In this paper, we perform a perturbation experiment with a three-dimensional anisotropic ice-flow model (AIF model) to investigate this upstream propagation. Observed thinning rates in the regions below 2000m elevation are used as perturbation inputs. The model runs with perturbation for 10 years show that the extensive mass loss at the ice-sheet margins does in fact cause interior thinning on short timescales (i.e. decadal). The modeled pattern of thinning over the ice sheet agrees with the observations, which implies that the strong mass loss since the early 2000s at low elevations has had a dynamic impact on the entire ice sheet. The modeling results also suggest that even if the large mass loss at the margins stopped, the interior ice sheet would continue thinning for 300 years and would take thousands of years for full dynamic recovery.

Ice-sheet thinning and acceleration at Camp Century, Greenlan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Colgan, W. T.

2017-12-01

Camp Century, Greenland (77.18 °N, 61.12 °W, 1900 m), is located approximately 150 km inland from the ice-sheet margin in Northwest Greenland. In-situ and remotely-sensed measurements of ice-sheet elevation at Camp Century exhibit a thinning trend between 1964 and the present. A comparison of 1966 and 2017 firn density profiles indicates that a portion of this ice-sheet thinning is attributable to increased firn compaction rate. In-situ measurements of increasing ice surface velocity over the 1977-2017 period indicate that enhanced horizontal divergence of ice flux is also contributing to ice dynamic thinning at Camp Century. This apparent ice dynamic thinning could potentially result from a migrating local flow divide or decreasing effective ice viscosity. In a shorter-term context, observations of decadal-scale ice-sheet thinning and acceleration at Camp Century highlights underappreciated transience in inland ice form and flow during the satellite era. In a longer-term context, these multi-decadal observations contrast with inferences of millennial-scale ice-sheet thickening and deceleration at Camp Century.

Antarctic Ice Mass Balance from GRACE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boening, C.; Firing, Y. L.; Wiese, D. N.; Watkins, M. M.; Schlegel, N.; Larour, E. Y.

2014-12-01

The Antarctic ice mass balance and rates of change of ice mass over the past decade are analyzed based on observations from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites, in the form of JPL RL05M mascon solutions. Surface mass balance (SMB) fluxes from ERA-Interim and other atmospheric reanalyses successfully account for the seasonal GRACE-measured mass variability, and explain 70-80% of the continent-wide mass variance at interannual time scales. Trends in the residual (GRACE mass - SMB accumulation) mass time series in different Antarctic drainage basins are consistent with time-mean ice discharge rates based on radar-derived ice velocities and thicknesses. GRACE also resolves accelerations in regional ice mass change rates, including increasing rates of mass gain in East Antarctica and accelerating ice mass loss in West Antarctica. The observed East Antarctic mass gain is only partially explained by anomalously large SMB events in the second half of the record, potentially implying that ice discharge rates are also decreasing in this region. Most of the increasing mass loss rate in West Antarctica, meanwhile, is explained by decreasing SMB (principally precipitation) over this time period, part of the characteristic decadal variability in regional SMB. The residual acceleration of 2+/-1 Gt/yr, which is concentrated in the Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE) basins, represents the contribution from increasing ice discharge rates. An Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) run with constant ocean forcing and stationary grounding lines both underpredicts the largest trends in the ASE and produces negligible acceleration or interannual variability in discharge, highlighting the potential importance of ocean forcing for setting ice discharge rates at interannual to decadal time scales.

Antarctic Ice Shelf Loss Comes From Underneath

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-12-08

Calving front of an ice shelf in West Antarctica. The traditional view on ice shelves, the floating extensions of seaward glaciers, has been that they mostly lose ice by shedding icebergs. A new study by NASA and university researchers has found that warm ocean waters melting the ice sheets from underneath account for 55 percent of all ice shelf mass loss in Antarctica. This image was taken during the 2012 Antarctic campaign of NASA's Operation IceBridge, a mission that provided data for the new ice shelf study. Read more: www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/earth20130613.html Credit: NASA/GSFC/Jefferson Beck NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram

Ancient Yedoma carbon loss: primed by ice wedge thaw?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dowdy, K. L.; Vonk, J. E.; Mann, P. J.; Zimov, N.; Bulygina, E. B.; Davydova, A.; Spencer, R. G.; Holmes, R. M.

2012-12-01

Northeast Siberian permafrost is dominated by frozen Yedoma deposits containing ca. 500 Gt of carbon, nearly a quarter of northern permafrost organic carbon (OC). Yedoma deposits are Pleistocene-age alluvial and/or aeolian accumulations characterized by high ice wedge content (~50%), making them particularly vulnerable to a warming climate and to surface collapse upon thaw. Dissolved OC in streams originating primarily from Yedoma has been shown to be highly biolabile, relative to waters containing more modern OC. The cause of this biolability, however, remains speculative. Here we investigate the influence of ice wedge input upon the bioavailability of Yedoma within streams from as a potential cause of Yedoma carbon biolability upon release into the Kolyma River from the thaw-eroding river exposures of Duvannyi Yar, NE Siberia. We measured biolability on (1) ice wedge, Kolyma, and Yedoma leachate controls; (2) ice wedge and Kolyma plus Yedoma OC (8 g/L); and (3) varying ratios of ice wedge water to Kolyma river water. Biolability assays were conducted using both 5-day BOD (biological oxygen demand) and 11-day BDOC (biodegradable dissolved organic carbon) incubations. We found that ancient DOC in Yedoma soil leachate alone was highly biolabile with losses of 52±0.1% C over a 5-day BOD incubation. Similarly, DOC contained in pure ice wedge water was found to be biolabile, losing 21±0% C during a 5-day BOD incubation. Increased ice wedge contributions led to higher overall C losses in identical Yedoma soil leachates, with 8.9±0.6% losses of Yedoma C with 100% ice wedge water, 7.1±1% (50% ice wedge/ 50% Kolyma) and 5±0.3% with 100% Kolyma River water. We discuss potential mechanisms for the increased loss of ancient C using associated measurements of nutrient availability, carbon quality (CDOM/FDOM) and extracellular enzyme activity rates. Our initial results indicate that ice wedge meltwater forming Yedoma streams makes Yedoma OC more bioavailable than it would

Greenland Ice Sheet Mass Balance: Distribution of Increased Mass Loss with Climate Warming; 2003-07 Versus 1992-2002

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zwally, H. Jay; Li, Jun; Benner, Anita C.; Beckley, Matthew; Cornejo, Helen G.; DiMarzio, John; Giovinetto, Mario B.; Neumann, Thomas A.; Robbins, John; Saba, Jack L.;

Quantifying the mass loss of peripheral Greenland glaciers and ice caps (1958-2014).

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noël, Brice; van de Berg, Willem Jan; Machguth, Horst; van den Broeke, Michiel

2016-04-01

Since the 2000s, mass loss from Greenland peripheral glaciers and ice caps (GICs) has accelerated, becoming an important contributor to sea level rise. Under continued warming throughout the 21st century, GICs might yield up to 7.5 to 11 mm sea level rise, with increasing dominance of surface runoff at the expense of ice discharge. However, despite multiple observation campaigns, little remains known about the contribution of GICs to total Greenland mass loss. Furthermore, the relatively coarse resolutions in regional climate models, i.e. 5 km to 20 km, fail to represent the small scale patterns of surface mass balance (SMB) components over these topographically complex regions including also narrow valley glaciers. Here, we present a novel approach to quantify the contribution of GICs to surface melt and runoff, based on an elevation dependent downscaling method. GICs daily SMB components at 1 km resolution are obtained by statistically downscaling the outputs of RACMO2.3 at 11 km resolution to a down-sampled version of the GIMP DEM for the period 1958-2014. This method has recently been successfully validated over the Greenland ice sheet and is now applied to GICs. In this study, we first evaluate the 1 km daily downscaled GICs SMB against a newly available and comprehensive dataset of ablation stake measurements. Then, we investigate present-day trends of meltwater production and SMB for different regions and estimate GICs contribution to total Greenland mass loss. These data are considered valuable for model evaluation and prediction of future sea level rise.

The missing Northern European winter cooling response to Arctic sea ice loss

PubMed Central

Screen, James A.

2017-01-01

Reductions in Arctic sea ice may promote the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO−). It has been argued that NAO-related variability can be used an as analogue to predict the effects of Arctic sea ice loss on mid-latitude weather. As NAO− events are associated with colder winters over Northern Europe, a negatively shifted NAO has been proposed as a dynamical pathway for Arctic sea ice loss to cause Northern European cooling. This study uses large-ensemble atmospheric simulations with prescribed ocean surface conditions to examine how seasonal-scale NAO− events are affected by Arctic sea ice loss. Despite an intensification of NAO− events, reflected by more prevalent easterly flow, sea ice loss does not lead to Northern European winter cooling and daily cold extremes actually decrease. The dynamical cooling from the changed NAO is ‘missing', because it is offset (or exceeded) by a thermodynamical effect owing to advection of warmer air masses. PMID:28262679

Observed Arctic sea-ice loss directly follows anthropogenic CO2 emission.

PubMed

Notz, Dirk; Stroeve, Julienne

2016-11-11

Arctic sea ice is retreating rapidly, raising prospects of a future ice-free Arctic Ocean during summer. Because climate-model simulations of the sea-ice loss differ substantially, we used a robust linear relationship between monthly-mean September sea-ice area and cumulative carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions to infer the future evolution of Arctic summer sea ice directly from the observational record. The observed linear relationship implies a sustained loss of 3 ± 0.3 square meters of September sea-ice area per metric ton of CO 2 emission. On the basis of this sensitivity, Arctic sea ice will be lost throughout September for an additional 1000 gigatons of CO 2 emissions. Most models show a lower sensitivity, which is possibly linked to an underestimation of the modeled increase in incoming longwave radiation and of the modeled transient climate response. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

How robust is the atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea-ice loss in isolation?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kushner, P. J.; Hay, S. E.; Blackport, R.; McCusker, K. E.; Oudar, T.

2017-12-01

It is now apparent that active dynamical coupling between the ocean and atmosphere determines a good deal of how Arctic sea-ice loss changes the large-scale atmospheric circulation. In coupled ocean-atmosphere models, Arctic sea-ice loss indirectly induces a 'mini' global warming and circulation changes that extend into the tropics and the Southern Hemisphere. Ocean-atmosphere coupling also amplifies by about 50% Arctic free-tropospheric warming arising from sea-ice loss (Deser et al. 2015, 2016). The mechanisms at work and how to separate the response to sea-ice loss from the rest of the global warming process remain poorly understood. Different studies have used distinctive numerical approaches and coupled ocean-atmosphere models to address this problem. We put these studies on comparable footing using pattern scaling (Blackport and Kushner 2017) to separately estimate the part of the circulation response that scales with sea-ice loss in the absence of low-latitude warming from the part that scales with low-latitude warming in the absence of sea-ice loss. We consider well-sampled simulations from three different coupled ocean-atmosphere models (CESM1, CanESM2, CNRM-CM5), in which greenhouse warming and sea-ice loss are driven in different ways (sea ice albedo reduction/transient RCP8.5 forcing for CESM1, nudged sea ice/CO2 doubling for CanESM2, heat-flux forcing/constant RCP8.5-derived forcing for CNRM-CM5). Across these different simulations, surprisingly robust influences of Arctic sea-ice loss on atmospheric circulation can be diagnosed using pattern scaling. For boreal winter, the isolated sea-ice loss effect acts to increase warming in the North American Sub-Arctic, decrease warming of the Eurasian continent, enhance precipitation over the west coast of North America, and strengthen the Aleutian Low and the Siberian High. We will also discuss how Arctic free tropospheric warming might be enhanced via midlatitude ocean surface warming induced by sea-ice loss

Invariant polar bear habitat selection during a period of sea ice loss

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilson, Ryan R.; Regehr, Eric V.; Rode, Karyn D.; St Martin, Michelle

2016-01-01

Climate change is expected to alter many species' habitat. A species' ability to adjust to these changes is partially determined by their ability to adjust habitat selection preferences to new environmental conditions. Sea ice loss has forced polar bears (Ursus maritimus) to spend longer periods annually over less productive waters, which may be a primary driver of population declines. A negative population response to greater time spent over less productive water implies, however, that prey are not also shifting their space use in response to sea ice loss. We show that polar bear habitat selection in the Chukchi Sea has not changed between periods before and after significant sea ice loss, leading to a 75% reduction of highly selected habitat in summer. Summer was the only period with loss of highly selected habitat, supporting the contention that summer will be a critical period for polar bears as sea ice loss continues. Our results indicate that bears are either unable to shift selection patterns to reflect new prey use patterns or that there has not been a shift towards polar basin waters becoming more productive for prey. Continued sea ice loss is likely to further reduce habitat with population-level consequences for polar bears.

Invariant polar bear habitat selection during a period of sea ice loss.

PubMed

Wilson, Ryan R; Regehr, Eric V; Rode, Karyn D; St Martin, Michelle

2016-08-17

Climate change is expected to alter many species' habitat. A species' ability to adjust to these changes is partially determined by their ability to adjust habitat selection preferences to new environmental conditions. Sea ice loss has forced polar bears (Ursus maritimus) to spend longer periods annually over less productive waters, which may be a primary driver of population declines. A negative population response to greater time spent over less productive water implies, however, that prey are not also shifting their space use in response to sea ice loss. We show that polar bear habitat selection in the Chukchi Sea has not changed between periods before and after significant sea ice loss, leading to a 75% reduction of highly selected habitat in summer. Summer was the only period with loss of highly selected habitat, supporting the contention that summer will be a critical period for polar bears as sea ice loss continues. Our results indicate that bears are either unable to shift selection patterns to reflect new prey use patterns or that there has not been a shift towards polar basin waters becoming more productive for prey. Continued sea ice loss is likely to further reduce habitat with population-level consequences for polar bears. © 2016 The Author(s).

Ice stream activity scaled to ice sheet volume during Laurentide Ice Sheet deglaciation.

PubMed

Stokes, C R; Margold, M; Clark, C D; Tarasov, L

2016-02-18

The contribution of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets to sea level has increased in recent decades, largely owing to the thinning and retreat of outlet glaciers and ice streams. This dynamic loss is a serious concern, with some modelling studies suggesting that the collapse of a major ice sheet could be imminent or potentially underway in West Antarctica, but others predicting a more limited response. A major problem is that observations used to initialize and calibrate models typically span only a few decades, and, at the ice-sheet scale, it is unclear how the entire drainage network of ice streams evolves over longer timescales. This represents one of the largest sources of uncertainty when predicting the contributions of ice sheets to sea-level rise. A key question is whether ice streams might increase and sustain rates of mass loss over centuries or millennia, beyond those expected for a given ocean-climate forcing. Here we reconstruct the activity of 117 ice streams that operated at various times during deglaciation of the Laurentide Ice Sheet (from about 22,000 to 7,000 years ago) and show that as they activated and deactivated in different locations, their overall number decreased, they occupied a progressively smaller percentage of the ice sheet perimeter and their total discharge decreased. The underlying geology and topography clearly influenced ice stream activity, but--at the ice-sheet scale--their drainage network adjusted and was linked to changes in ice sheet volume. It is unclear whether these findings can be directly translated to modern ice sheets. However, contrary to the view that sees ice streams as unstable entities that can accelerate ice-sheet deglaciation, we conclude that ice streams exerted progressively less influence on ice sheet mass balance during the retreat of the Laurentide Ice Sheet.

Summer 2007 and 2008 Arctic Sea Ice Loss in Context: OUTLOOK 2008

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Overland, J. E.; Eicken, H.; Wiggins, H. V.

2008-12-01

The Arctic is changing faster than the publication cycle for new information. In response, the SEARCH and DAMOCLES Programs initiated an OUTLOOK 2008 to provide broad-based communication and assessment within the arctic science community on the causes of rapid summer sea ice loss, synthesizing information from Arctic observing networks and model simulations. The question for summer 2008 was whether the previous loss of multi-year sea ice and delay in sea ice formation in autumn 2007 would still allow sufficient winter growth of sea ice thickness to last through the summer 2008, potentially allowing for recovery from the 2007 minimum. The answer is no; summer 2008 was a second sequential year of extremely low minimum sea ice extent. To organize OUTLOOK 2008, respondents were asked in May, June and July to provide a rationale and semi-quantitative assessment of arctic sea ice extent anticipated for September 2008. OUTLOOK 2008 supplemented information maintained by ice centers, universities and other data providers. Using a range of methods, all of the approximately 20 groups responded that summer sea ice would not return to climatological mean conditions, with a median response near the 2007 extent. The range of responses depended on the relative weight given to "initial conditions," e.g., age and thickness of sea ice at the end of spring, versus whether summer winds in 2008 would be as supportive for ice loss as in 2007. Initial conditions turned out to be a primary factor for summer 2008, with implications for continued sea ice loss in future years. OUTLOOK 2008 highlighted aspects of the observation and modeling efforts that require further attention such as interpretation of summer microwave signatures, in situ buoy measurements, and data assimilation in models. We appreciate the contributions from respondents and reviewers who made OUTLOOK 2008 a success.

Isolating the atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea-ice loss in the coupled climate system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kushner, Paul; Blackport, Russell

2017-04-01

In the coupled climate system, projected global warming drives extensive sea-ice loss, but sea-ice loss drives warming that amplifies and can be confounded with the global warming process. This makes it challenging to cleanly attribute the atmospheric circulation response to sea-ice loss within coupled earth-system model (ESM) simulations of greenhouse warming. In this study, many centuries of output from coupled ocean/atmosphere/land/sea-ice ESM simulations driven separately by sea-ice albedo reduction and by projected greenhouse-dominated radiative forcing are combined to cleanly isolate the hemispheric scale response of the circulation to sea-ice loss. To isolate the sea-ice loss signal, a pattern scaling approach is proposed in which the local multidecadal mean atmospheric response is assumed to be separately proportional to the total sea-ice loss and to the total low latitude ocean surface warming. The proposed approach estimates the response to Arctic sea-ice loss with low latitude ocean temperatures fixed and vice versa. The sea-ice response includes a high northern latitude easterly zonal wind response, an equatorward shift of the eddy driven jet, a weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex, an anticyclonic sea level pressure anomaly over coastal Eurasia, a cyclonic sea level pressure anomaly over the North Pacific, and increased wintertime precipitation over the west coast of North America. Many of these responses are opposed by the response to low-latitude surface warming with sea ice fixed. However, both sea-ice loss and low latitude surface warming act in concert to reduce storm track strength throughout the mid and high latitudes. The responses are similar in two related versions of the National Center for Atmospheric Research earth system models, apart from the stratospheric polar vortex response. Evidence is presented that internal variability can easily contaminate the estimates if not enough independent climate states are used to construct them

Isolating the atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea-ice loss in the coupled climate system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kushner, P. J.; Blackport, R.

2016-12-01

In the coupled climate system, projected global warming drives extensive sea-ice loss, but sea-ice loss drives warming that amplifies and can be confounded with the global warming process. This makes it challenging to cleanly attribute the atmospheric circulation response to sea-ice loss within coupled earth-system model (ESM) simulations of greenhouse warming. In this study, many centuries of output from coupled ocean/atmosphere/land/sea-ice ESM simulations driven separately by sea-ice albedo reduction and by projected greenhouse-dominated radiative forcing are combined to cleanly isolate the hemispheric scale response of the circulation to sea-ice loss. To isolate the sea-ice loss signal, a pattern scaling approach is proposed in which the local multidecadal mean atmospheric response is assumed to be separately proportional to the total sea-ice loss and to the total low latitude ocean surface warming. The proposed approach estimates the response to Arctic sea-ice loss with low latitude ocean temperatures fixed and vice versa. The sea-ice response includes a high northern latitude easterly zonal wind response, an equatorward shift of the eddy driven jet, a weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex, an anticyclonic sea level pressure anomaly over coastal Eurasia, a cyclonic sea level pressure anomaly over the North Pacific, and increased wintertime precipitation over the west coast of North America. Many of these responses are opposed by the response to low-latitude surface warming with sea ice fixed. However, both sea-ice loss and low latitude surface warming act in concert to reduce storm track strength throughout the mid and high latitudes. The responses are similar in two related versions of the National Center for Atmospheric Research earth system models, apart from the stratospheric polar vortex response. Evidence is presented that internal variability can easily contaminate the estimates if not enough independent climate states are used to construct them.

Towards Quantification of Glacier Dynamic Ice Loss through Passive Seismic Monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Köhler, A.; Nuth, C.; Weidle, C.; Schweitzer, J.; Kohler, J.; Buscaino, G.

2015-12-01

Global glaciers and ice caps loose mass through calving, while existing models are currently not equipped to realistically predict dynamic ice loss. This is mainly because long-term continuous calving records, that would help to better understand fine scale processes and key climatic-dynamic feedbacks between calving, climate, terminus evolution and marine conditions, do not exist. Combined passive seismic/acoustic strategies are the only technique able to capture rapid calving events continuously, independent of daylight or meteorological conditions. We have produced such a continuous calving record for Kronebreen, a tidewater glacier in Svalbard, using data from permanent seismic stations between 2001 and 2014. However, currently no method has been established in cryo-seismology to quantify the calving ice loss directly from seismic data. Independent calibration data is required to derive 1) a realistic estimation of the dynamic ice loss unobserved due to seismic noise and 2) a robust scaling of seismic calving signals to ice volumes. Here, we analyze the seismic calving record at Kronebreen and independent calving data in a first attempt to quantify ice loss directly from seismic records. We make use of a) calving flux data with weekly to monthly resolution obtained from satellite remote sensing and GPS data between 2007 and 2013, and b) direct, visual calving observations in two weeks in 2009 and 2010. Furthermore, the magnitude-scaling property of seismic calving events is analyzed. We derive and discuss an empirical relation between seismic calving events and calving flux which for the first time allows to estimate a time series of calving volumes more than one decade back in time. Improving our model requires to incorporate more precise, high-resolution calibration data. A new field campaign will combine innovative, multi-disciplinary monitoring techniques to measure calving ice volumes and dynamic ice-ocean interactions simultaneously with terrestrial laser

Remarkable separability of the circulation response to Arctic sea ice loss and greenhouse gas forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCusker, K. E.; Kushner, P. J.; Fyfe, J. C.; Sigmond, M.; Kharin, V. V.; Bitz, C. M.

2017-12-01

Arctic sea ice loss has an important effect on local climate through increases in ocean to atmosphere heat flux and associated feedbacks, and may influence midlatitude climate by changing large-scale circulation that can enhance or counter changes that are due to greenhouse gases. The extent to which climate change in a warming world can be understood as greenhouse gas-induced changes that are modulated by Arctic sea ice loss depends on how additive the responses to the separate influences are. Here we use a novel sea ice nudging methodology in the Canadian Earth System Model, which has a fully coupled ocean, to isolate the effects of Arctic sea ice loss and doubled atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) to determine their additivity and sensitivity to mean state. We find that the separate effects of Arctic sea ice loss and doubled CO2 are remarkably additive and relatively insensitive to mean climate state. This separability is evident in several thermodynamic and dynamic fields throughout most of the year, from hemispheric to synoptic scales. The extent to which the regional response to sea ice loss sometimes agrees with and sometimes cancels the response to CO2 is quantified. In this model, Arctic sea ice loss enhances the CO2-induced surface air temperature changes nearly everywhere and zonal wind changes over the Pacific sector, whereas sea ice loss counters CO2-induced sea level pressure changes nearly everywhere over land and zonal wind changes over the Atlantic sector. This separability of the response to Arctic sea ice loss from the response to CO2 doubling gives credence to the body of work in which Arctic sea ice loss is isolated from the forcing that modified it, and might provide a means to better interpret the diverse array of modeling and observational studies of Arctic change and influence.

Weakening of the Stratospheric Polar Vortex by Arctic Sea-Ice Loss

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kim, Baek-Min; Son, Seok-Woo; Min, Seung-Ki

2014-09-02

Successive cold winters of severely low temperatures in recent years have had critical social and economic impacts on the mid-latitude continents in the Northern Hemisphere. Although these cold winters are thought to be partly driven by dramatic losses of Arctic sea ice, the mechanism that links sea ice loss to cold winters remains a subject of debate. Here, by conducting observational analyses and model experiments, we show how Arctic sea ice loss and cold winters in extra-polar regions are dynamically connected through the polar stratosphere. We find that decreased sea ice cover during early winter months (November-December), especially over themore » Barents-Kara seas, enhance the upward propagation of planetary-scale waves with wavenumbers of 1 and 2, subsequently weakening the stratospheric polar vortex in mid-winter (January- February). The weakened polar vortex preferentially induces a negative phase of Arctic Oscillation at the surface, resulting in low temperatures in mid-latitudes.« less

Arctic spring ozone reduction associated with projected sea ice loss

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deser, C.; Sun, L.; Tomas, R. A.; Polvani, L. M.

2013-12-01

The impact of Arctic sea ice loss on the stratosphere is investigated using the Whole-Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), by prescribing the sea ice in the late 20th century and late 21st century, respectively. The localized Sea Surface Temperature (SST) change associated with sea ice melt is also included in the future run. Overall, the model simulates a negative annular-mode response in the winter and spring. In the stratosphere, polar vortex strengthens from February to April, peaking in March. Consistent with it, there is an anomalous cooling in the high-latitude stratosphere, and polar cap ozone reduction is up to 20 DU. Since the difference between these two runs lies only in the sea ice and localized SST in the Arctic, the stratospheric circulation and ozone changes can be attributed to the surface forcing. Eliassen-Palm analysis reveals that the upward propagation of planetary waves is suppressed in the spring as a consequence of sea ice loss. The reduction in propagation causes less wave dissipation and thus less zonal wind deceleration in the extratropical stratosphere.

Nonlinear threshold behavior during the loss of Arctic sea ice.

PubMed

Eisenman, I; Wettlaufer, J S

2009-01-06

In light of the rapid recent retreat of Arctic sea ice, a number of studies have discussed the possibility of a critical threshold (or "tipping point") beyond which the ice-albedo feedback causes the ice cover to melt away in an irreversible process. The focus has typically been centered on the annual minimum (September) ice cover, which is often seen as particularly susceptible to destabilization by the ice-albedo feedback. Here, we examine the central physical processes associated with the transition from ice-covered to ice-free Arctic Ocean conditions. We show that although the ice-albedo feedback promotes the existence of multiple ice-cover states, the stabilizing thermodynamic effects of sea ice mitigate this when the Arctic Ocean is ice covered during a sufficiently large fraction of the year. These results suggest that critical threshold behavior is unlikely during the approach from current perennial sea-ice conditions to seasonally ice-free conditions. In a further warmed climate, however, we find that a critical threshold associated with the sudden loss of the remaining wintertime-only sea ice cover may be likely.

Higher-order ice-sheet modelling accelerated by multigrid on graphics cards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brædstrup, Christian; Egholm, David

2013-04-01

Higher-order ice flow modelling is a very computer intensive process owing primarily to the nonlinear influence of the horizontal stress coupling. When applied for simulating long-term glacial landscape evolution, the ice-sheet models must consider very long time series, while both high temporal and spatial resolution is needed to resolve small effects. The use of higher-order and full stokes models have therefore seen very limited usage in this field. However, recent advances in graphics card (GPU) technology for high performance computing have proven extremely efficient in accelerating many large-scale scientific computations. The general purpose GPU (GPGPU) technology is cheap, has a low power consumption and fits into a normal desktop computer. It could therefore provide a powerful tool for many glaciologists working on ice flow models. Our current research focuses on utilising the GPU as a tool in ice-sheet and glacier modelling. To this extent we have implemented the Integrated Second-Order Shallow Ice Approximation (iSOSIA) equations on the device using the finite difference method. To accelerate the computations, the GPU solver uses a non-linear Red-Black Gauss-Seidel iterator coupled with a Full Approximation Scheme (FAS) multigrid setup to further aid convergence. The GPU finite difference implementation provides the inherent parallelization that scales from hundreds to several thousands of cores on newer cards. We demonstrate the efficiency of the GPU multigrid solver using benchmark experiments.

Greenhouse gas mitigation can reduce sea-ice loss and increase polar bear persistence.

PubMed

Amstrup, Steven C; Deweaver, Eric T; Douglas, David C; Marcot, Bruce G; Durner, George M; Bitz, Cecilia M; Bailey, David A

2010-12-16

On the basis of projected losses of their essential sea-ice habitats, a United States Geological Survey research team concluded in 2007 that two-thirds of the world's polar bears (Ursus maritimus) could disappear by mid-century if business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions continue. That projection, however, did not consider the possible benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation. A key question is whether temperature increases lead to proportional losses of sea-ice habitat, or whether sea-ice cover crosses a tipping point and irreversibly collapses when temperature reaches a critical threshold. Such a tipping point would mean future greenhouse gas mitigation would confer no conservation benefits to polar bears. Here we show, using a general circulation model, that substantially more sea-ice habitat would be retained if greenhouse gas rise is mitigated. We also show, with Bayesian network model outcomes, that increased habitat retention under greenhouse gas mitigation means that polar bears could persist throughout the century in greater numbers and more areas than in the business-as-usual case. Our general circulation model outcomes did not reveal thresholds leading to irreversible loss of ice; instead, a linear relationship between global mean surface air temperature and sea-ice habitat substantiated the hypothesis that sea-ice thermodynamics can overcome albedo feedbacks proposed to cause sea-ice tipping points. Our outcomes indicate that rapid summer ice losses in models and observations represent increased volatility of a thinning sea-ice cover, rather than tipping-point behaviour. Mitigation-driven Bayesian network outcomes show that previously predicted declines in polar bear distribution and numbers are not unavoidable. Because polar bears are sentinels of the Arctic marine ecosystem and trends in their sea-ice habitats foreshadow future global changes, mitigating greenhouse gas emissions to improve polar bear status would have conservation benefits throughout

Greenhouse gas mitigation can reduce sea-ice loss and increase polar bear persistence

USGS Publications Warehouse

Amstrup, Steven C.; Deweaver, E.T.; Douglas, David C.; Marcot, B.G.; Durner, George M.; Bitz, C.M.; Bailey, D.A.

2010-01-01

On the basis of projected losses of their essential sea-ice habitats, a United States Geological Survey research team concluded in 2007 that two-thirds of the worlds polar bears (Ursus maritimus) could disappear by mid-century if business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions continue. That projection, however, did not consider the possible benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation. A key question is whether temperature increases lead to proportional losses of sea-ice habitat, or whether sea-ice cover crosses a tipping point and irreversibly collapses when temperature reaches a critical threshold. Such a tipping point would mean future greenhouse gas mitigation would confer no conservation benefits to polar bears. Here we show, using a general circulation model, that substantially more sea-ice habitat would be retained if greenhouse gas rise is mitigated. We also show, with Bayesian network model outcomes, that increased habitat retention under greenhouse gas mitigation means that polar bears could persist throughout the century in greater numbers and more areas than in the business-as-usual case. Our general circulation model outcomes did not reveal thresholds leading to irreversible loss of ice; instead, a linear relationship between global mean surface air temperature and sea-ice habitat substantiated the hypothesis that sea-ice thermodynamics can overcome albedo feedbacks proposed to cause sea-ice tipping points. Our outcomes indicate that rapid summer ice losses in models and observations represent increased volatility of a thinning sea-ice cover, rather than tipping-point behaviour. Mitigation-driven Bayesian network outcomes show that previously predicted declines in polar bear distribution and numbers are not unavoidable. Because polar bears are sentinels of the Arctic marine ecosystem and trends in their sea-ice habitats foreshadow future global changes, mitigating greenhouse gas emissions to improve polar bear status would have conservation benefits throughout

Recent Changes in Arctic Glaciers, Ice Caps, and the Greenland Ice Sheet: Cold Facts About Warm Ice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdalati, W.

2005-12-01

One of the major manifestations of Arctic change can be observed in the state of balance of Arctic glaciers and ice caps and the Greenland ice sheet. These ice masses are estimated to contain nearly 3 million cubic kilometers of ice, which is more than six times greater than all the water stored in the Earth's lakes, rivers, and snow combined and is the equivalent of over 7 meters of sea level. Most of these ice masses have been shrinking in recent in years, but their mass balance is highly variable on a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. On the Greenland ice sheet most of the coastal regions have thinned substantially as melt has increased and some of its outlet glaciers have accelerated. Near the equilibrium line in West Greenland, we have seen evidence of summer acceleration that is linked to surface meltwater production, suggesting a relatively rapid response mechanism of the ice sheet change to a warming climate. At the same time, however, the vast interior regions of the Greenland ice sheet have shown little change or slight growth, as accumulation in these areas may have increased. Throughout much of the rest of the Arctic, many glaciers and ice caps have been shrinking in the past few decades, and in Canada and Alaska, the rate of ice loss seems to have accelerated during the late 1990s. These recent observations offer only a snapshot in time of the long-term behavior, but they are providing crucial information about the current state of ice mass balance and the mechanisms that control it in one of the most climatically sensitive regions on Earth. As we continue to learn more through a combination of remote sensing observations, in situ measurements and improved modeling capabilities, it is important that we coordinate and integrate these approaches effectively in order to predict future changes and their impact on sea level, freshwater discharge, and ocean circulation.

77 FR 27529 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; ICE Clear Credit LLC; Order Granting Accelerated Approval of...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-05-10

... Organizations; ICE Clear Credit LLC; Order Granting Accelerated Approval of Proposed Rule Change to Membership Qualifications May 4, 2012. I. Introduction On April 3, 2012, ICE Clear Credit LLC (``ICC'') filed with the... limitations provided for in ICC Rule 203(b)) require such Clearing Participant to prepay and maintain with ICE...

Consistency and discrepancy in the atmospheric response to Arctic sea-ice loss across climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Screen, James A.; Deser, Clara; Smith, Doug M.; Zhang, Xiangdong; Blackport, Russell; Kushner, Paul J.; Oudar, Thomas; McCusker, Kelly E.; Sun, Lantao

2018-03-01

The decline of Arctic sea ice is an integral part of anthropogenic climate change. Sea-ice loss is already having a significant impact on Arctic communities and ecosystems. Its role as a cause of climate changes outside of the Arctic has also attracted much scientific interest. Evidence is mounting that Arctic sea-ice loss can affect weather and climate throughout the Northern Hemisphere. The remote impacts of Arctic sea-ice loss can only be properly represented using models that simulate interactions among the ocean, sea ice, land and atmosphere. A synthesis of six such experiments with different models shows consistent hemispheric-wide atmospheric warming, strongest in the mid-to-high-latitude lower troposphere; an intensification of the wintertime Aleutian Low and, in most cases, the Siberian High; a weakening of the Icelandic Low; and a reduction in strength and southward shift of the mid-latitude westerly winds in winter. The atmospheric circulation response seems to be sensitive to the magnitude and geographic pattern of sea-ice loss and, in some cases, to the background climate state. However, it is unclear whether current-generation climate models respond too weakly to sea-ice change. We advocate for coordinated experiments that use different models and observational constraints to quantify the climate response to Arctic sea-ice loss.

Identifying Climate Model Teleconnection Mechanisms Between Arctic Sea Ice Loss and Mid-Latitude Winter Storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kravitz, B.; Mills, C.; Rasch, P. J.; Wang, H.; Yoon, J. H.

2016-12-01

The role of Arctic amplification, including observed decreases in sea ice concentration, thickness, and extent, with potential for exciting downstream atmospheric responses in the mid-latitudes, is a timely issue. We identify the role of the regionality of autumn sea ice loss on downstream mid-latitude responses using engineering methodologies adapted to climate modeling, which allow for multiple Arctic sea regions to be perturbed simultaneously. We evaluate downstream responses in various climate fields (e.g., temperature, precipitation, cloud cover) associated with perturbations in the Beaufort/Chukchi Seas and the Kara/Barents Seas. Simulations suggest that the United States response is primarily linked to sea ice changes in the Beaufort/Chukchi Seas, whereas Eurasian response is primarily due to Kara/Barents sea ice coverage changes. Downstream effects are most prominent approximately 6-10 weeks after the initial perturbation (sea ice loss). Our findings suggest that winter mid-latitude storms (connected to the so-called "Polar Vortex") are linked to sea ice loss in particular areas, implying that further sea ice loss associated with climate change will exacerbate these types of extreme events.

Nonlinear threshold behavior during the loss of Arctic sea ice

PubMed Central

Eisenman, I.; Wettlaufer, J. S.

2009-01-01

In light of the rapid recent retreat of Arctic sea ice, a number of studies have discussed the possibility of a critical threshold (or “tipping point”) beyond which the ice–albedo feedback causes the ice cover to melt away in an irreversible process. The focus has typically been centered on the annual minimum (September) ice cover, which is often seen as particularly susceptible to destabilization by the ice–albedo feedback. Here, we examine the central physical processes associated with the transition from ice-covered to ice-free Arctic Ocean conditions. We show that although the ice–albedo feedback promotes the existence of multiple ice-cover states, the stabilizing thermodynamic effects of sea ice mitigate this when the Arctic Ocean is ice covered during a sufficiently large fraction of the year. These results suggest that critical threshold behavior is unlikely during the approach from current perennial sea-ice conditions to seasonally ice-free conditions. In a further warmed climate, however, we find that a critical threshold associated with the sudden loss of the remaining wintertime-only sea ice cover may be likely. PMID:19109440

What can we learn from the self-attraction and loading fingerprints about pre-GRACE mass-loss acceleration from Greenland and Antarctica?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, J. L.; Vinogradova, N. T.

2017-12-01

Tide-gauge records from the North Atlantic reveal significant acceleration in sea level starting in the late 20th century. We have analyzed the tide-gauge data using a model in which the accelerations are assumed to be zero prior to 1990. The estimated accelerations range from -1 to +3 m cy-2 and exhibit a systematic spatial variability. Davis and Vinogradova [2017] demonstrated that to model this variability in sea-level acceleration requires contributions from several distinct physical processes: accelerated mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets and acceleration associated with ocean circulation and heat uptake. Atmospheric pressure also contributes to the observed changes in sea level, at a much smaller amplitude. Because we are focusing on sea-level accelerations (i.e., sea-level rate changes), the contribution from Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) is negligible. Modeling of observed sea-level acceleration is achieved using external constraints for the important physical processes. Using GRACE results, we can calculate the sea-level "fingerprints" for Greenland and Antarctica associated with mass loading and gravitational perturbations. For the North Atlantic, Greenland induces a significant spatial variation in sea-level change—dominated by the solid-Earth response to the mass loss—whereas Antarctica contributes a spatially constant acceleration. The observations prefer a scaling of the solid-Earth/gravitational response, and we present the implications of this result for ice-mass changes prior to the onset of GRACE observations (2002-3).

Climate Variability, Melt-Flow Acceleration, and Ice Quakes at the Western Slope of the Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steffen, K.; Zwally, J. H.; Rial, J. A.; Behar, A.; Huff, R.

2006-12-01

The Greenland ice sheet experienced surface melt increase over the past 15 years with record melt years in 1987, 1991, 1998, 2002 and 2005. For the western part of the ice sheet the melt area increased by 30 percent (1979-2005). Monthly mean air temperatures increased in spring and fall by 0.23 deg. C per year since 1990, extending the length of melt and total ablation. Winter air temperatures increased by as much as 0.5 deg. C per year during the past 15 years. The equilibrium line altitude ranged between 400 and 1530 m above sea level at 70 deg. north along the western slope of the ice sheet for the past 15 years, equaling a horizontal distance of 100 km. The ELA has been below the Swiss Camp (1100 m elevation) in the nineties, and since 1997 moved above the Swiss Camp height. An increase in ELA leads to an increase in melt water run-off which has been verified by regional model studies (high-resolution re-analysis). Interannual variability of snow accumulation varies from 0.3 to 2.0 m, whereas snow and ice ablation ranges from 0 to 1.5 m water equivalent at Swiss Camp during 1990-2005. A GPS network (10 stations) monitors ice velocity, acceleration, and surface height change at high temporal resolution throughout the year. The network covers a range of 500 and 1500 m above sea level, close to the Ilulissat Icefjord World Heritage region. The ice sheet continued to accelerate during the height of the melt season with short-term velocity increases up to 100 percent, and vertical uplift rates of 0.5 m. There seems to be a good correlation between the change in ice velocity and total surface melt, suggesting that melt water penetrates to great depth through moulins and cracks, lubricating the bottom of the ice sheet. A new bore-hole video movie will be shown from a 110 m deep moulin close to Swiss Camp. A PASSCAL array of 10 portable, 3-component seismic stations deployed around Swiss Camp from May to August 2006 detected numerous microearthquakes within the ice

Oceanic and atmospheric forcing of Larsen C Ice-Shelf thinning

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holland, P. R.; Brisbourne, A.; Corr, H. F. J.; Mcgrath, Daniel; Purdon, K.; Paden, J.; Fricker, H. A.; Paolo, F. S.; Fleming, A.H.

2015-01-01

The catastrophic collapses of Larsen A and B ice shelves on the eastern Antarctic Peninsula have caused their tributary glaciers to accelerate, contributing to sea-level rise and freshening the Antarctic Bottom Water formed nearby. The surface of Larsen C Ice Shelf (LCIS), the largest ice shelf on the peninsula, is lowering. This could be caused by unbalanced ocean melting (ice loss) or enhanced firn melting and compaction (englacial air loss). Using a novel method to analyse eight radar surveys, this study derives separate estimates of ice and air thickness changes during a 15-year period. The uncertainties are considerable, but the primary estimate is that the surveyed lowering (0.066 ± 0.017 m yr−1) is caused by both ice loss (0.28 ± 0.18 m yr−1) and firn-air loss (0.037 ± 0.026 m yr−1). The ice loss is much larger than the air loss, but both contribute approximately equally to the lowering because the ice is floating. The ice loss could be explained by high basal melting and/or ice divergence, and the air loss by low surface accumulation or high surface melting and/or compaction. The primary estimate therefore requires that at least two forcings caused the surveyed lowering. Mechanisms are discussed by which LCIS stability could be compromised in the future. The most rapid pathways to collapse are offered by the ungrounding of LCIS from Bawden Ice Rise or ice-front retreat past a "compressive arch" in strain rates. Recent evidence suggests that either mechanism could pose an imminent risk.

Remarkable separability of circulation response to Arctic sea ice loss and greenhouse gas forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCusker, K. E.; Kushner, P. J.; Fyfe, J. C.; Sigmond, M.; Kharin, V. V.; Bitz, C. M.

2017-08-01

Arctic sea ice loss may influence midlatitude climate by changing large-scale circulation. The extent to which climate change can be understood as greenhouse gas-induced changes that are modulated by this loss depends on how additive the responses to the separate influences are. A novel sea ice nudging methodology in a fully coupled climate model reveals that the separate effects of doubled atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations and associated Arctic sea ice loss are remarkably additive and insensitive to the mean climate state. This separability is evident in several fields throughout most of the year, from hemispheric to synoptic scales. The extent to which the regional response to sea ice loss sometimes agrees with and sometimes cancels the response to CO2 is quantified. The separability of the responses might provide a means to better interpret the diverse array of modeling and observational studies of Arctic change and influence.

Permafrost - Relation between ice content and dielectric losses at 100 K

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Alvarez, R.

1973-01-01

The dielectric response of permafrost at 100 K and vacuums of around 10 ntorr is analyzed, varying its percent ice content from 1 to 18.6. The distributions obtained correspond to dielectric relaxations of the Cole-Cole type, with maximum losses occurring in the 30- to 600-Hz frequency range. The logarithms of such maxima depend linearly on the permafrost ice content, two regions of linear variation being defined above and below 3.6% ice content. Such relations point out the feasibility of determining ice content in permafrost by electromagnetic means.

Ice shelf fracture parameterization in an ice sheet model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Sainan; Cornford, Stephen L.; Moore, John C.; Gladstone, Rupert; Zhao, Liyun

2017-11-01

Floating ice shelves exert a stabilizing force onto the inland ice sheet. However, this buttressing effect is diminished by the fracture process, which on large scales effectively softens the ice, accelerating its flow, increasing calving, and potentially leading to ice shelf breakup. We add a continuum damage model (CDM) to the BISICLES ice sheet model, which is intended to model the localized opening of crevasses under stress, the transport of those crevasses through the ice sheet, and the coupling between crevasse depth and the ice flow field and to carry out idealized numerical experiments examining the broad impact on large-scale ice sheet and shelf dynamics. In each case we see a complex pattern of damage evolve over time, with an eventual loss of buttressing approximately equivalent to halving the thickness of the ice shelf. We find that it is possible to achieve a similar ice flow pattern using a simple rule of thumb: introducing an enhancement factor ˜ 10 everywhere in the model domain. However, spatially varying damage (or equivalently, enhancement factor) fields set at the start of prognostic calculations to match velocity observations, as is widely done in ice sheet simulations, ought to evolve in time, or grounding line retreat can be slowed by an order of magnitude.

Accelerating Thermokarst Transforms Ice-Cored Terrain Triggering a Downstream Cascade to the Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rudy, A. C. A.; Lamoureux, S. F.; Kokelj, S. V.; Smith, I. R.; England, J. H.

2017-11-01

Recent climate warming has activated the melt-out of relict massive ice in permafrost-preserved moraines throughout the western Canadian Arctic. This ice that has persisted since the last glaciation, buried beneath as little as 1 m of overburden, is now undergoing accelerated permafrost degradation and thermokarst. Here we document recent and intensifying thermokarst activity on eastern Banks Island that has increased the fluvial transport of sediments and solutes to the ocean. Isotopic evidence demonstrates that a major contribution to discharge is melt of relict ground ice, resulting in a significant hydrological input from thermokarst augmenting summer runoff. Accelerated thermokarst is transforming the landscape and the summer hydrological regime and altering the timing of terrestrial to marine and lacustrine transfers over significant areas of the western Canadian Arctic. The intensity of the landscape changes demonstrates that regions of cold, continuous permafrost are undergoing irreversible alteration, unprecedented since deglaciation ( 13 cal kyr B.P.).

Ice-sheet response to oceanic forcing.

PubMed

Joughin, Ian; Alley, Richard B; Holland, David M

2012-11-30

The ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica are losing ice at accelerating rates, much of which is a response to oceanic forcing, especially of the floating ice shelves. Recent observations establish a clear correspondence between the increased delivery of oceanic heat to the ice-sheet margin and increased ice loss. In Antarctica, most of these processes are reasonably well understood but have not been rigorously quantified. In Greenland, an understanding of the processes by which warmer ocean temperatures drive the observed retreat remains elusive. Experiments designed to identify the relevant processes are confounded by the logistical difficulties of instrumenting ice-choked fjords with actively calving glaciers. For both ice sheets, multiple challenges remain before the fully coupled ice-ocean-atmosphere models needed for rigorous sea-level projection are available.

Arctic sea ice loss and recent extreme cold winter in Eurasia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mori, Masato; Watanabe, Masahiro; Ishii, Masayoshi; Kimoto, Masahide

2014-05-01

Extreme cold winter over the Eurasia has occurred more frequently in recent years. Observational evidence in recent studies shows that the wintertime cold anomalies over the Eurasia are associated with decline of Arctic sea ice in preceding autumn to winter season. However, the tropical and/or mid-latitude sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies have great influence on the mid- and high-latitude atmospheric variability, it is difficult to isolate completely the impacts of sea ice change from observational data. In this study, we examine possible linkage between the Arctic sea ice loss and the extreme cold winter over the Eurasia using a state-of-the-art MIROC4 (T106L56) atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) to assess the pure atmospheric responses to sea ice reduction. We perform two sets of experiments with different realistic sea ice boundary conditions calculated by composite of observed sea ice concentration; one is reduced sea ice extent case (referred to as LICE run) and another is enhanced case (HICE run). In both experiments, the model is integrated 6-month from September to February with 100-member ensemble under the climatological SST boundary condition. The difference in ensemble mean of each experiment (LICE minus HICE) shows cold anomalies over the Eurasia in winter and its spatial pattern is very similar to corresponding observation, though the magnitude is smaller than observation. This result indicates that a part of observed cold anomaly can be attributed to the Arctic sea ice loss. We would like to introduce more important results and mechanisms in detail in my presentation.

Suppressed midlatitude summer atmospheric warming by Arctic sea ice loss during 1979-2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Qigang; Cheng, Luyao; Chan, Duo; Yao, Yonghong; Hu, Haibo; Yao, Ying

2016-03-01

Since the 1980s, rapid Arctic warming, sea ice decline, and weakening summer circulation have coincided with an increasing number of extreme heat waves and other destructive weather events in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) midlatitudes in summer. Recent papers disagree about whether such high-impact events are related to Arctic warming and/or ice loss. Here we use atmospheric model ensemble simulations to attribute effects of sea ice loss and other factors on observed summer climate trends during 1979-2012. The ongoing greenhouse gas buildup and resulting sea surface temperature warming outside the Arctic explains nearly all land warming and a significant portion of observed weakening zonal winds in the NH midlatitudes. However, sea ice loss has induced a negative Arctic Oscillation(AO)-type circulation with significant summer surface and tropospheric cooling trends over large portions of the NH midlatitudes, which reduce the warming and might reduce the probability of regional severe hot summers.

The geomorphic impact of catastrophic glacier ice loss in mountain regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Evans, S. G.

2006-12-01

Perhaps the most dramatic manifestation of global warming is catastrophic glacier ice loss in mountain regions. The geomorphic impact of this process was first outlined by Evans and Clague in 1994 and includes mountain slope instability, glacier avalanching, the formation and failure of moraine dammed lakes, and the formation and failure of ice dammed lakes. The present paper is an update of the 1994 publication and has three components. First, a global review of recent glacier-related geomorphic events is undertaken. Second, an analysis of two cases from the Coast Mountains of British Columbia - the 1975 Devastation Glacier landslide and the 1983 Nostetuko Lake outburst resulting from the failure of a moraine dam illustrates the interaction of glacier ice loss and related geomorphic events. At Devastation Glacier, approximately 13 M m3 of altered Quaternary volcanic rock and glacier ice was lost from the west flank of Pylon Peak in the Mount Meager volcanic complex. The events were initiated by a catastrophic rockslide, involving altered Quaternary pyroclastic rocks, which continued down Devastation Creek valley as a high velocity debris avalanche. The overall length of the slide path was 7 km and the vertical height of the path was 1220 m yielding a fahrboschung of 10°. Other large landslides occurred in Devastation Creek valley in 1931 and 1947. Stability analysis of the initial failure shows that the 1975 rockslide was the result of a complex history of glacial erosion, loading and unloading of the toe of the slide mass caused by the Little Ice Age advance and subsequent retreat of Devastation Glacier. The shearing resistance along the base of the rockslide mass was reduced prior to 1975 by substantial previous slope displacements related to glacial ice loss. Some of this displacement is likely to have occurred as subglacial slope deformation since ice fall and crevasse patterns suggest the presence of slide like shearing displacements below the base of

Mass Balance of the Northern Antarctic Peninsula and its Ongoing Response to Ice Shelf Loss

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scambos, T. A.; Berthier, E.; Haran, T. M.; Shuman, C. A.; Cook, A. J.; Bohlander, J. A.

2012-12-01

An assessment of the most rapidly changing areas of the Antarctic Peninsula (north of 66°S) shows that ice mass loss for the region is dominated by areas affected by eastern-Peninsula ice shelf losses in the past 20 years. Little if any of the mass loss is compensated by increased snowfall in the northwestern or far northern areas. We combined satellite stereo-image DEM differencing and ICESat-derived along-track elevation changes to measure ice mass loss for the Antarctic Peninsula north of 66°S between 2001-2010, focusing on the ICESat-1 period of operation (2003-2009). This mapping includes all ice drainages affected by recent ice shelf loss in the northeastern Peninsula (Prince Gustav, Larsen Inlet, Larsen A, and Larsen B) as well as James Ross Island, Vega Island, Anvers Island, Brabant Island and the adjacent west-flowing glaciers. Polaris Glacier (feeding the Larsen Inlet, which collapsed in 1986) is an exception, and may have stabilized. Our method uses ASTER and SPOT-5 stereo-image DEMs to determine dh/dt for elevations below 800 m; at higher elevations ICESat along-track elevation differencing is used. To adjust along-track path offsets between its 2003-2009 campaigns, we use a recent DEM of the Peninsula to establish and correct for cross-track slope (Cook et al., 2012, doi:10.5194/essdd-5-365-2012; http://nsidc.org/data/nsidc-0516.html) . We reduce the effect of possible seasonal variations in elevation by using only integer-year repeats of the ICESat tracks for comparison. Mass losses are dominated by the major glaciers that had flowed into the Prince Gustav (Boydell, Sjorgren, Röhss), Larsen A (Edgeworth, Bombardier, Dinsmoor, Drygalski), and Larsen B (Hektoria, Jorum, and Crane) embayments. The pattern of mass loss emphasizes the significant and multi-decadal response to ice shelf loss. Areas with shelf losses occurring 30 to 100s of years ago seem to be relatively stable or losing mass only slowly (western glaciers, northernmost areas). The

High Artic Glaciers and Ice Caps Ice Mass Change from GRACE, Regional Climate Model Output and Altimetry.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciraci, E.; Velicogna, I.; Fettweis, X.; van den Broeke, M. R.

2016-12-01

The Arctic hosts more than the 75% of the ice covered regions outside from Greenland and Antarctica. Available observations show that increased atmospheric temperatures during the last century have contributed to a substantial glaciers retreat in all these regions. We use satellite gravimetry by the NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), and apply a least square fit mascon approach to calculate time series of ice mass change for the period 2002-2016. Our estimates show that arctic glaciers have constantly contributed to the sea level rise during the entire observation period with a mass change of -170+/-20 Gt/yr equivalent to the 80% of the total ice mass change from the world Glacier and Ice Caps (GIC) excluding the Ice sheet peripheral GIC, which we calculated to be -215+/-32 GT/yr, with an acceleration of 9+/-4 Gt/yr2. The Canadian Archipelago is the main contributor to the total mass depletion with an ice mass trend of -73+/-9 Gt/yr and a significant acceleration of -7+/-3 Gt/yr2. The increasing mass loss is mainly determined by melting glaciers located in the northern part of the archipelago.In order to investigate the physical processes driving the observed ice mass loss we employ satellite altimetry and surface mass balance (SMB) estimates from Regional climate model outputs available for the same time period covered by the gravimetry data. We use elevation data from the NASA ICESat (2003-2009) and ESA CryoSat-2 (2010-2016) missions to estimate ice elevation changes. We compare GRACE ice mass estimates with time series of surface mass balance from the Regional Climate Model (RACMO-2) and the Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR) and determine the portion of the total mass change explained by the SMB signal. We find that in Iceland and in the and the Canadian Archipelago the SMB signal explains most of the observed mass changes, suggesting that ice discharge may play a secondary role here. In other region, e.g. in Svalbar, the SMB signal

Using Reanalysis Data for the Prediction of Seasonal Wind Turbine Power Losses Due to Icing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burtch, D.; Mullendore, G. L.; Delene, D. J.; Storm, B.

2013-12-01

The Northern Plains region of the United States is home to a significant amount of potential wind energy. However, in winter months capturing this potential power is severely impacted by the meteorological conditions, in the form of icing. Predicting the expected loss in power production due to icing is a valuable parameter that can be used in wind turbine operations, determination of wind turbine site locations and long-term energy estimates which are used for financing purposes. Currently, losses due to icing must be estimated when developing predictions for turbine feasibility and financing studies, while icing maps, a tool commonly used in Europe, are lacking in the United States. This study uses the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) dataset in conjunction with turbine production data to investigate various methods of predicting seasonal losses (October-March) due to icing at two wind turbine sites located 121 km apart in North Dakota. The prediction of icing losses is based on temperature and relative humidity thresholds and is accomplished using three methods. For each of the three methods, the required atmospheric variables are determined in one of two ways: using industry-specific software to correlate anemometer data in conjunction with the MERRA dataset and using only the MERRA dataset for all variables. For each season, a percentage of the total expected generated power lost due to icing is determined and compared to observed losses from the production data. An optimization is performed in order to determine the relative humidity threshold that minimizes the difference between the predicted and observed values. Eight seasons of data are used to determine an optimal relative humidity threshold, and a further three seasons of data are used to test this threshold. Preliminary results have shown that the optimized relative humidity threshold for the northern turbine is higher than the southern turbine for all methods

Ice Clouds in Martian Arctic (Accelerated Movie)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2008-01-01

Clouds scoot across the Martian sky in a movie clip consisting of 10 frames taken by the Surface Stereo Imager on NASA's Phoenix Mars Lander.

This clip accelerates the motion. The camera took these 10 frames over a 10-minute period from 2:52 p.m. to 3:02 p.m. local solar time at the Phoenix site during Sol 94 (Aug. 29), the 94th Martian day since landing.

Particles of water-ice make up these clouds, like ice-crystal cirrus clouds on Earth. Ice hazes have been common at the Phoenix site in recent days.

The camera took these images as part of a campaign by the Phoenix team to see clouds and track winds. The view is toward slightly west of due south, so the clouds are moving westward or west-northwestward.

The clouds are a dramatic visualization of the Martian water cycle. The water vapor comes off the north pole during the peak of summer. The northern-Mars summer has just passed its peak water-vapor abundance at the Phoenix site. The atmospheric water is available to form into clouds, fog and frost, such as the lander has been observing recently.

The Phoenix Mission is led by the University of Arizona, Tucson, on behalf of NASA. Project management of the mission is by NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif. Spacecraft development is by Lockheed Martin Space Systems, Denver.

Evolution of Pine Island Glacier subglacial conditions in response to 18 years of ice flow acceleration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brisbourne, A.; Bougamont, M. H.; Christoffersen, P.; Cornford, S. L.; Nias, I.; Vaughan, D.; Smith, A.

2017-12-01

Antarctica's main contribution to sea-level rise originates from the Amundsen Coast, when warm ocean water intrudes onto the continental shelf. As a result, strong melting beneath the ice shelves induces thinning near the grounding line of glaciers, which is ensued by large ice flow speed up diffusing rapidly inland. In particular, ice loss from Pine Island Glacier (PIG) accounts for 20% of the total ice loss in West Antarctica, amounting to 0.12 mm yr-1 of global sea-level rise. Forecasting the future flow of Amundsen Coast glaciers is however hindered by large uncertainties regarding how the thinning initiated at the grounding line is transmitted upstream, and how the grounded flow will ultimately respond. This work aims at elucidating the role of subglacial processes beneath PIG tributaries in modulating the ice flow response to frontal perturbations. We used the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM 2.0) to perform numerical inversions of PIG surface velocity as observed in 1996 and 2014. Over that time period, ice flow acceleration has been widespread over PIG's basin, and the inversions provide insights into the related evolution of the basal thermal and stress conditions. We assume the latter to be directly related to changes in the properties of a soft sediment (till) layer known to exist beneath PIG. We find that the overall bed strength has weakened by 18% in the region of enhanced flow, and that the annual melt production for PIG catchment increased by 25% between 1996 and 2014. Specifically, regions of high melt production are located in the southern tributaries, where the overall stronger bed allows for more frictional melting. However, we find no significant and widespread change in the basal strength of that region, and we infer that the water produced is transported away in a concentrated hydrological system, without much interaction with the till layer. In contrast, we find that relatively less basal melting occurs elsewhere in the catchment, where the

Clouds enhance Greenland ice sheet mass loss

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Tricht, Kristof; Gorodetskaya, Irina V.; L'Ecuyer, Tristan; Lenaerts, Jan T. M.; Lhermitte, Stef; Noel, Brice; Turner, David D.; van den Broeke, Michiel R.; van Lipzig, Nicole P. M.

2015-04-01

Clouds have a profound influence on both the Arctic and global climate, while they still represent one of the key uncertainties in climate models, limiting the fidelity of future climate projections. The potentially important role of thin liquid-containing clouds over Greenland in enhancing ice sheet melt has recently gained interest, yet current research is spatially and temporally limited, focusing on particular events, and their large scale impact on the surface mass balance remains unknown. We used a combination of satellite remote sensing (CloudSat - CALIPSO), ground-based observations and climate model (RACMO) data to show that liquid-containing clouds warm the Greenland ice sheet 94% of the time. High surface reflectivity (albedo) for shortwave radiation reduces the cloud shortwave cooling effect on the absorbed fluxes, while not influencing the absorption of longwave radiation. Cloud warming over the ice sheet therefore dominates year-round. Only when albedo values drop below ~0.6 in the coastal areas during summer, the cooling effect starts to overcome the warming effect. The year-round excess of energy due to the presence of liquid-containing clouds has an extensive influence on the mass balance of the ice sheet. Simulations using the SNOWPACK snow model showed not only a strong influence of these liquid-containing clouds on melt increase, but also on the increased sublimation mass loss. Simulations with the Community Earth System Climate Model for the end of the 21st century (2080-2099) show that Greenland clouds contain more liquid water path and less ice water path. This implies that cloud radiative forcing will be further enhanced in the future. Our results therefore urge the need for improving cloud microphysics in climate models, to improve future projections of ice sheet mass balance and global sea level rise.

Examination of Icing Induced Loss of Control and Its Mitigations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reehorst, Andrew L.; Addy, Harold E., Jr.; Colantonio, Renato O.

2010-01-01

Factors external to the aircraft are often a significant causal factor in loss of control (LOC) accidents. In today s aviation world, very few accidents stem from a single cause and typically have a number of causal factors that culminate in a LOC accident. Very often the "trigger" that initiates an accident sequence is an external environment factor. In a recent NASA statistical analysis of LOC accidents, aircraft icing was shown to be the most common external environmental LOC causal factor for scheduled operations. When investigating LOC accident or incidents aircraft icing causal factors can be categorized into groups of 1) in-flight encounter with super-cooled liquid water clouds, 2) take-off with ice contamination, or 3) in-flight encounter with high concentrations of ice crystals. As with other flight hazards, icing induced LOC accidents can be prevented through avoidance, detection, and recovery mitigations. For icing hazards, avoidance can take the form of avoiding flight into icing conditions or avoiding the hazard of icing by making the aircraft tolerant to icing conditions. Icing detection mitigations can take the form of detecting icing conditions or detecting early performance degradation caused by icing. Recovery from icing induced LOC requires flight crew or automated systems capable of accounting for reduced aircraft performance and degraded control authority during the recovery maneuvers. In this report we review the icing induced LOC accident mitigations defined in a recent LOC study and for each mitigation describe a research topic required to enable or strengthen the mitigation. Many of these research topics are already included in ongoing or planned NASA icing research activities or are being addressed by members of the icing research community. These research activities are described and the status of the ongoing or planned research to address the technology needs is discussed

Suppressed mid-latitude summer atmospheric warming by Arctic sea ice loss during 1979-2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Q.

2016-12-01

Since the 1980s, rapid Arctic warming, sea ice decline, and weakening summer circulation have coincided with an increasing number of extreme heatwaves and other destructive weather events in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) mid-latitudes in summer. Recent papers disagree about whether such high-impact events are related to Arctic warming and/or ice loss. Here we use atmospheric model ensemble simulations to attribute effects of sea ice loss and other factors on observed summer climate trends during 1979-2012. The ongoing greenhouse gas buildup and resulting sea surface temperature (SST) warming outside the Arctic explains nearly all land warming and a significant portion of observed weakening zonal winds in the NH mid-latitudes. However, sea ice loss has induced a negative Arctic Oscillation (AO)-type circulation with significant summer surface and tropospheric cooling trends over large portions of the NH mid-latitudes, which reduce the warming and might reduce the probability of regional severe hot summers.

Decreasing cloud cover drives the recent mass loss on the Greenland Ice Sheet

PubMed Central

Hofer, Stefan; Tedstone, Andrew J.; Fettweis, Xavier; Bamber, Jonathan L.

2017-01-01

The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) has been losing mass at an accelerating rate since the mid-1990s. This has been due to both increased ice discharge into the ocean and melting at the surface, with the latter being the dominant contribution. This change in state has been attributed to rising temperatures and a decrease in surface albedo. We show, using satellite data and climate model output, that the abrupt reduction in surface mass balance since about 1995 can be attributed largely to a coincident trend of decreasing summer cloud cover enhancing the melt-albedo feedback. Satellite observations show that, from 1995 to 2009, summer cloud cover decreased by 0.9 ± 0.3% per year. Model output indicates that the GrIS summer melt increases by 27 ± 13 gigatons (Gt) per percent reduction in summer cloud cover, principally because of the impact of increased shortwave radiation over the low albedo ablation zone. The observed reduction in cloud cover is strongly correlated with a state shift in the North Atlantic Oscillation promoting anticyclonic conditions in summer and suggests that the enhanced surface mass loss from the GrIS is driven by synoptic-scale changes in Arctic-wide atmospheric circulation. PMID:28782014

Decreasing cloud cover drives the recent mass loss on the Greenland Ice Sheet.

PubMed

Hofer, Stefan; Tedstone, Andrew J; Fettweis, Xavier; Bamber, Jonathan L

2017-06-01

The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) has been losing mass at an accelerating rate since the mid-1990s. This has been due to both increased ice discharge into the ocean and melting at the surface, with the latter being the dominant contribution. This change in state has been attributed to rising temperatures and a decrease in surface albedo. We show, using satellite data and climate model output, that the abrupt reduction in surface mass balance since about 1995 can be attributed largely to a coincident trend of decreasing summer cloud cover enhancing the melt-albedo feedback. Satellite observations show that, from 1995 to 2009, summer cloud cover decreased by 0.9 ± 0.3% per year. Model output indicates that the GrIS summer melt increases by 27 ± 13 gigatons (Gt) per percent reduction in summer cloud cover, principally because of the impact of increased shortwave radiation over the low albedo ablation zone. The observed reduction in cloud cover is strongly correlated with a state shift in the North Atlantic Oscillation promoting anticyclonic conditions in summer and suggests that the enhanced surface mass loss from the GrIS is driven by synoptic-scale changes in Arctic-wide atmospheric circulation.

Ice Slurry Ingestion Leads to a Lower Net Heat Loss during Exercise in the Heat.

PubMed

Morris, Nathan B; Coombs, Geoff; Jay, Ollie

2016-01-01

To compare the reductions in evaporative heat loss from the skin (Esk) to internal heat loss (Hfluid) induced by ice slurry (ICE) ingestion relative to 37 °C fluid and the accompanying body temperature and local thermoeffector responses during exercise in warm, dry conditions (33.5 °C ± 1.4 °C; 23.7% ± 2.6% relative humidity [RH]). Nine men cycled at approximately 55% VO2peak for 75 min and ingested 3.2 mL · kg(-1) aliquots of 37 °C fluid or ICE after 15, 30, and 45 min of exercise. Metabolic heat production (M-W), rectal temperature (Tre), mean skin temperature (Tsk), whole-body sweat loss (WBSL), local sweat rate (LSR), and skin blood flow (SkBF) were measured throughout. Net heat loss (HLnet) and heat storage (S) were estimated using partitional calorimetry. Relative to the 37 °C trial, M-W was similar (P = 0.81) with ICE ingestion; however, the 200 ± 20 kJ greater Hfluid (P < 0.001) with ICE ingestion was overcompensated by a 381 ± 199-kJ lower Esk (P < 0.001). Net heat loss (HLnet) was consequently 131 ± 120 kJ lower (P = 0.01) and S was greater (P = 0.05) with ICE ingestion compared with 37 °C fluid ingestion. Concurrently, LSR and WBSL were lower by 0.16 ± 0.14 mg · min(-1) · cm(-2) (P < 0.01) and 191 ± 122 g (P < 0.001), respectively, and SkBF tended to be lower (P = 0.06) by 5.4%maxAU ± 13.4%maxAU in the ICE trial. Changes in Tre and Tsk were similar throughout exercise with ICE compared to 37 °C fluid ingestion. Relative to 37 °C, ICE ingestion caused disproportionately greater reductions in Esk relative to Hfluid, resulting in a lower HLnet and greater S. Mechanistically, LSR and possibly SkBF were suppressed independently of Tre or Tsk, reaffirming the concept of human abdominal thermoreception. From a heat balance perspective, recommendations for ICE ingestion during exercise in warm, dry conditions should be reconsidered.

Sea Ice Summer Camp: Bringing Together Arctic Sea Ice Modelers and Observers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perovich, D. K.; Holland, M. M.

2016-12-01

The Arctic sea ice has undergone dramatic change and numerical models project this to continue for the foreseeable future. Understanding the mechanisms behind sea ice loss and its consequences for the larger Arctic and global systems is of critical importance if we are to anticipate and plan for the future. One impediment to progress is a disconnect between the observational and modeling communities. A sea ice summer camp was held in Barrow Alaska from 26 May to 1 June 2016 to overcome this impediment and better integrate the sea ice community. The 25 participants were a mix of modelers and observers from 13 different institutions at career stages from graduate student to senior scientist. The summer camp provided an accelerated program on sea ice observations and models and also fostered future collaborative interdisciplinary activities. Each morning was spent in the classroom with a daily lecture on an aspect of modeling or remote sensing followed by practical exercises. Topics included using models to assess sensitivity, to test hypotheses and to explore sources of uncertainty in future Arctic sea ice loss. The afternoons were spent on the ice making observations. There were four observational activities; albedo observations, ice thickness measurements, ice coring and physical properties, and ice morphology surveys. The last field day consisted of a grand challenge where the group formulated a hypothesis, developed an observational and modeling strategy to test the hypothesis, and then integrated the observations and model results. The impacts of changing sea ice are being felt today in Barrow Alaska. We opened a dialog with Barrow community members to further understand these changes. This included an evening discussion with two Barrow sea ice experts and a community presentation of our work in a public lecture at the Inupiat Heritage Center.

Multimodel Evidence for an Atmospheric Circulation Response to Arctic Sea Ice Loss in the CMIP5 Future Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zappa, G.; Pithan, F.; Shepherd, T. G.

2018-01-01

Previous single-model experiments have found that Arctic sea ice loss can influence the atmospheric circulation. To evaluate this process in a multimodel ensemble, a novel methodology is here presented and applied to infer the influence of Arctic sea ice loss in the CMIP5 future projections. Sea ice influence is estimated by comparing the circulation response in the RCP8.5 scenario against the circulation response to sea surface warming and CO2 increase inferred from the AMIPFuture and AMIP4xCO2 experiments, where sea ice is unperturbed. Multimodel evidence of the impact of sea ice loss on midlatitude atmospheric circulation is identified in late winter (January-March), when the sea ice-related surface heat flux perturbation is largest. Sea ice loss acts to suppress the projected poleward shift of the North Atlantic jet, to increase surface pressure in northern Siberia, and to lower it in North America. These features are consistent with previous single-model studies, and the present results indicate that they are robust to model formulation.

Multimodel Evidence for an Atmospheric Circulation Response to Arctic Sea Ice Loss in the CMIP5 Future Projections.

PubMed

Zappa, G; Pithan, F; Shepherd, T G

2018-01-28

Previous single-model experiments have found that Arctic sea ice loss can influence the atmospheric circulation. To evaluate this process in a multimodel ensemble, a novel methodology is here presented and applied to infer the influence of Arctic sea ice loss in the CMIP5 future projections. Sea ice influence is estimated by comparing the circulation response in the RCP8.5 scenario against the circulation response to sea surface warming and CO 2 increase inferred from the AMIPFuture and AMIP4xCO2 experiments, where sea ice is unperturbed. Multimodel evidence of the impact of sea ice loss on midlatitude atmospheric circulation is identified in late winter (January-March), when the sea ice-related surface heat flux perturbation is largest. Sea ice loss acts to suppress the projected poleward shift of the North Atlantic jet, to increase surface pressure in northern Siberia, and to lower it in North America. These features are consistent with previous single-model studies, and the present results indicate that they are robust to model formulation.

Destabilisation of an Arctic ice cap triggered by a hydro-thermodynamic feedback to summer-melt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dunse, T.; Schellenberger, T.; Kääb, A.; Hagen, J. O.; Schuler, T. V.; Reijmer, C. H.

2014-05-01

Mass loss from glaciers and ice sheets currently accounts for two-thirds of the observed global sea-level rise and has accelerated since the 1990s, coincident with strong atmospheric warming in the Polar Regions. Here we present continuous GPS measurements and satellite synthetic aperture radar based velocity maps from the Austfonna ice cap, Svalbard, that demonstrate strong links between surface-melt and multiannual ice-flow acceleration. We identify a hydro-thermodynamic feedback that successively mobilizes stagnant ice regions, initially frozen to their bed, thereby facilitating fast basal motion over an expanding area. By autumn 2012, successive destabilization of the marine terminus escalated in a surge of the ice cap's largest drainage basin, Basin-3. The resulting iceberg discharge of 4.2 ± 1.6 Gt a-1 over the period April 2012 to May 2013 triples the calving loss from the entire ice cap. After accounting for the terminus advance, the related sea-level rise contribution of 7.2 ± 2.6 Gt a-1 matches the recent annual ice-mass loss from the entire Svalbard archipelago. Our study highlights the importance of dynamic glacier wastage and illuminates mechanisms that may trigger a sustained increase in dynamic glacier wastage or the disintegration of ice-sheets in response to climate warming, which is acknowledged but not quantified in global projections of sea-level rise.

Change in the Extent of Baffin Island's Penny Ice Cap in Response to Regional Warming, 1969 - 2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cox, M. C.; Cormier, H. M.; Gardner, A. S.

2014-12-01

Glaciers are retreating globally in response to warmer atmospheric temperatures, adding large volumes of melt water to the world's oceans. The largest glacierized region and present-day contributor to sea level rise outside of the massive ice sheets is the Canadian Arctic. Recent work has shown that the glaciers of the southern Canadian Arctic (Baffin and Bylot Island) have experienced accelerated rates of ice loss in recent decades, but little is known regarding the spatial and temporal variations in rates of loss. For this study we examine in detail changes in the extent of the Penny Ice Cap (a proxy for ice loss) between 1969 and 2014 to better understand the climatic drivers of the recently observed accelerated rates of ice loss on Baffin Island. To do this, we reconstruct the extent of the ice cap for the year 1969 from historical maps and for the years 1985, 1995, 2010, and 2014 from Landsat 5 TM and Landsat 8 OLI imagery. We use 2009 SPOT HRS imagery and a novel extent comparison algorithm to assess the accuracy of glacier extents derived from Landsat imagery. Regional temperature and precipitation records were used to explain the spatial pattern of change. Due to large variation in elevations, hypsometry was also investigated as a contributor to differences in rates of change across the ice cap. Preliminary results show overall retreat throughout the ice cap but with regional differences in area and length change on either side of the Ice Cap divide.

Extensive dynamic thinning on the margins of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets.

PubMed

Pritchard, Hamish D; Arthern, Robert J; Vaughan, David G; Edwards, Laura A

2009-10-15

Many glaciers along the margins of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are accelerating and, for this reason, contribute increasingly to global sea-level rise. Globally, ice losses contribute approximately 1.8 mm yr(-1) (ref. 8), but this could increase if the retreat of ice shelves and tidewater glaciers further enhances the loss of grounded ice or initiates the large-scale collapse of vulnerable parts of the ice sheets. Ice loss as a result of accelerated flow, known as dynamic thinning, is so poorly understood that its potential contribution to sea level over the twenty-first century remains unpredictable. Thinning on the ice-sheet scale has been monitored by using repeat satellite altimetry observations to track small changes in surface elevation, but previous sensors could not resolve most fast-flowing coastal glaciers. Here we report the use of high-resolution ICESat (Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite) laser altimetry to map change along the entire grounded margins of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. To isolate the dynamic signal, we compare rates of elevation change from both fast-flowing and slow-flowing ice with those expected from surface mass-balance fluctuations. We find that dynamic thinning of glaciers now reaches all latitudes in Greenland, has intensified on key Antarctic grounding lines, has endured for decades after ice-shelf collapse, penetrates far into the interior of each ice sheet and is spreading as ice shelves thin by ocean-driven melt. In Greenland, glaciers flowing faster than 100 m yr(-1) thinned at an average rate of 0.84 m yr(-1), and in the Amundsen Sea embayment of Antarctica, thinning exceeded 9.0 m yr(-1) for some glaciers. Our results show that the most profound changes in the ice sheets currently result from glacier dynamics at ocean margins.

The far reach of ice-shelf thinning in Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reese, R.; Gudmundsson, G. H.; Levermann, A.; Winkelmann, R.

2018-01-01

Floating ice shelves, which fringe most of Antarctica's coastline, regulate ice flow into the Southern Ocean1-3. Their thinning4-7 or disintegration8,9 can cause upstream acceleration of grounded ice and raise global sea levels. So far the effect has not been quantified in a comprehensive and spatially explicit manner. Here, using a finite-element model, we diagnose the immediate, continent-wide flux response to different spatial patterns of ice-shelf mass loss. We show that highly localized ice-shelf thinning can reach across the entire shelf and accelerate ice flow in regions far from the initial perturbation. As an example, this `tele-buttressing' enhances outflow from Bindschadler Ice Stream in response to thinning near Ross Island more than 900 km away. We further find that the integrated flux response across all grounding lines is highly dependent on the location of imposed changes: the strongest response is caused not only near ice streams and ice rises, but also by thinning, for instance, well-within the Filchner-Ronne and Ross Ice Shelves. The most critical regions in all major ice shelves are often located in regions easily accessible to the intrusion of warm ocean waters10-12, stressing Antarctica's vulnerability to changes in its surrounding ocean.

Postglacial Rebound and Current Ice Loss Estimates from Space Geodesy: The New ICE-6G (VM5a) Global Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peltier, W. R.; Argus, D.; Drummond, R.; Moore, A. W.

2012-12-01

We compare, on a global basis, estimates of site velocity against predictions of the newly constructed postglacial rebound model ICE-6G (VM5a). This model is fit to observations of North American postglacial rebound thereby demonstrating that the ice sheet at last glacial maximum must have been, relative to ICE-5G,thinner in southern Manitoba, thinner near Yellowknife (northwest Territories), thicker in eastern and southern Quebec, and thicker along the British Columbia-Alberta border. The GPS based estimates of site velocity that we employ are more accurate than were previously available because they are based on GPS estimates of position as a function of time determined by incorporating satellite phase center variations [Desai et al. 2011]. These GPS estimates are constraining postglacial rebound in North America and Europe more tightly than ever before. In particular, given the high density of GPS sites in North America, and the fact that the velocity of the mass center (CM) of Earth is also more tightly constrained, the new model much more strongly constrains both the lateral extent of the proglacial forebulge and the rate at which this peripheral bulge (that was emplaced peripheral to the late Pleistocence Laurentia ice sheet) is presently collapsing. This fact proves to be important to the more accurate inference of the current rate of ice loss from both Greenland and Alaska based upon the time dependent gravity observations being provided by the GRACE satellite system. In West Antarctica we have also been able to significantly revise the previously prevalent ICE-5G deglaciation history so as to enable its predictions to be optimally consistent with GPS site velocities determined by connecting campaign WAGN measurements to those provided by observations from the permanent ANET sites. Ellsworth Land (south of the Antarctic peninsula), is observed to be rising at 6 ±3 mm/yr according to our latest analyses; the Ellsworth mountains themselves are observed to be

Contribution of the Greenland Ice Sheet to Sea-Level over the Next Millennium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aschwanden, A.; Fahnestock, M. A.; Truffer, M.

2017-12-01

The contribution of Greenland's outlet glaciers to sea-level remains a wild card in global sea level predictions but progress in mapping ice thickness combined with high-resolution flow modeling now allow to revisit questions about the long-term stability of the ice sheet. Here we present the first outlet glacier resolving assessment of Greenland's contribution to sea-level over the next millennium. We find that increased ice discharge resulting from acceleration of outlet glaciers due to ice melt at tidewater glacier margins dominates mass loss during the 21st century. However, as the ice sheet surfaces lowers, surface melt increases and over the course of the millennium, the relative contribution of ice discharge to total mass loss decreases. By the end of the 22nd century, most outlet glaciers in the north-west will have retreated out of tide-water, while in south-east enhanced precipitation partially offsets high ice discharge. The outlet glaciers of the central west coast, most notably Jakobshavn Isbrae, play a key role in dynamic mass loss due to their submarine connection to the interior reservoir. We find that coast-ward advection of cold ice from the interior counteracts outlet glacier acceleration by increasing ice viscosity and thereby reducing vertical shearing. Under the RCP 8.5 scenario, the ice margin in north and north-east Greenland retreats far enough to reach the vast interior where the subglacial topography is below sea level. This leads to a dramatic retreat in the second part of the millenium, and Greenland could shrink to 10% of its current volume by the end of the millennium.

Observations of Recent Arctic Sea Ice Volume Loss and Its Impact on Ocean-Atmosphere Energy Exchange and Ice Production

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kurtz, N. T.; Markus, T.; Farrell, S. L.; Worthen, D. L.; Boisvert, L. N.

2011-01-01

Using recently developed techniques we estimate snow and sea ice thickness distributions for the Arctic basin through the combination of freeboard data from the Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) and a snow depth model. These data are used with meteorological data and a thermodynamic sea ice model to calculate ocean-atmosphere heat exchange and ice volume production during the 2003-2008 fall and winter seasons. The calculated heat fluxes and ice growth rates are in agreement with previous observations over multiyear ice. In this study, we calculate heat fluxes and ice growth rates for the full distribution of ice thicknesses covering the Arctic basin and determine the impact of ice thickness change on the calculated values. Thinning of the sea ice is observed which greatly increases the 2005-2007 fall period ocean-atmosphere heat fluxes compared to those observed in 2003. Although there was also a decline in sea ice thickness for the winter periods, the winter time heat flux was found to be less impacted by the observed changes in ice thickness. A large increase in the net Arctic ocean-atmosphere heat output is also observed in the fall periods due to changes in the areal coverage of sea ice. The anomalously low sea ice coverage in 2007 led to a net ocean-atmosphere heat output approximately 3 times greater than was observed in previous years and suggests that sea ice losses are now playing a role in increasing surface air temperatures in the Arctic.

Sea-level feedback lowers projections of future Antarctic Ice-Sheet mass loss

PubMed Central

Gomez, Natalya; Pollard, David; Holland, David

2015-01-01

The stability of marine sectors of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) in a warming climate has been identified as the largest source of uncertainty in projections of future sea-level rise. Sea-level fall near the grounding line of a retreating marine ice sheet has a stabilizing influence on the ice sheets, and previous studies have established the importance of this feedback on ice age AIS evolution. Here we use a coupled ice sheet–sea-level model to investigate the impact of the feedback mechanism on future AIS retreat over centennial and millennial timescales for a range of emission scenarios. We show that the combination of bedrock uplift and sea-surface drop associated with ice-sheet retreat significantly reduces AIS mass loss relative to a simulation without these effects included. Sensitivity analyses show that the stabilization tends to be greatest for lower emission scenarios and Earth models characterized by a thin elastic lithosphere and low-viscosity upper mantle, as is the case for West Antarctica. PMID:26554381

An object-oriented, coprocessor-accelerated model for ice sheet simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seddik, H.; Greve, R.

2013-12-01

Recently, numerous models capable of modeling the thermo-dynamics of ice sheets have been developed within the ice sheet modeling community. Their capabilities have been characterized by a wide range of features with different numerical methods (finite difference or finite element), different implementations of the ice flow mechanics (shallow-ice, higher-order, full Stokes) and different treatments for the basal and coastal areas (basal hydrology, basal sliding, ice shelves). Shallow-ice models (SICOPOLIS, IcIES, PISM, etc) have been widely used for modeling whole ice sheets (Greenland and Antarctica) due to the relatively low computational cost of the shallow-ice approximation but higher order (ISSM, AIF) and full Stokes (Elmer/Ice) models have been recently used to model the Greenland ice sheet. The advance in processor speed and the decrease in cost for accessing large amount of memory and storage have undoubtedly been the driving force in the commoditization of models with higher capabilities, and the popularity of Elmer/Ice (http://elmerice.elmerfem.com) with an active user base is a notable representation of this trend. Elmer/Ice is a full Stokes model built on top of the multi-physics package Elmer (http://www.csc.fi/english/pages/elmer) which provides the full machinery for the complex finite element procedure and is fully parallel (mesh partitioning with OpenMPI communication). Elmer is mainly written in Fortran 90 and targets essentially traditional processors as the code base was not initially written to run on modern coprocessors (yet adding support for the recently introduced x86 based coprocessors is possible). Furthermore, a truly modular and object-oriented implementation is required for quick adaptation to fast evolving capabilities in hardware (Fortran 2003 provides an object-oriented programming model while not being clean and requiring a tricky refactoring of Elmer code). In this work, the object-oriented, coprocessor-accelerated finite element

Arctic Ice Management: an integrated approach to climate engineering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Desch, S. J.; Hartnett, H. E.; Groppi, C. E.; Romaniello, S. J.

2017-12-01

The warming climate is having the most rapid and pronounced effects in the high Arctic. The loss of Arctic sea ice is not only changing the physical oceanography of the Arctic Ocean and its coastlines; it is also promoting new conversations about the dangers and benefits for trade, transportation, and industry in the Arctic. The rate of decrease of summer sea ice in the Arctic is currently -300 km3 yr-1, a rate that will lead to complete loss of end-summer sea ice as soon as 2030. Preventing the strong positive feedbacks and increased warming due to sea ice albedo loss must be an important component of climate mitigation strategies. Here, we explore a direct engineering approach we call Arctic Ice Management (AIM) to reduce the loss of Arctic sea ice. We predict that pumping seawater onto the ice surface during the Arctic winter using wind-powered pumps can thicken sea ice by up to 1 m per year, reversing the current loss rates and prolonging the time until the Arctic Ocean is ice-free. Thickening sea ice would not change CO2 levels, which are the underlying cause of ice loss, but it would prevent some of the strongest feedbacks and would buy time to develop the tools and governance systems necessary to achieve carbon-neutrality. We advocate exploration of AIM as a mitigation strategy employed in parallel with CO2 reduction efforts. The opportunity and risk profiles of AIM differ from other geoengineering proposals. While similar in principle to solar radiation management, AIM may present fewer large-scale environmental risks. AIM is separate from greenhouse gas emission reduction or sequestration, but might help prevent accelerated release of methane from thawing permafrost. Further, AIM might be usefully employed at regional and local scales to preserve Arctic ecosystems and possibly reduce the effects of ice-loss induced coastal erosion. Through presentation of the AIM concept, we hope to spark new conversations between scientists, stakeholders, and decision

Determination of Acreage Thermal Protection Foam Loss From Ice and Foam Impacts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carney, Kelly S.; Lawrence, Charles

2015-01-01

A parametric study was conducted to establish Thermal Protection System (TPS) loss from foam and ice impact conditions similar to what might occur on the Space Launch System. This study was based upon the large amount of testing and analysis that was conducted with both ice and foam debris impacts on TPS acreage foam for the Space Shuttle Project External Tank. Test verified material models and modeling techniques that resulted from Space Shuttle related testing were utilized for this parametric study. Parameters varied include projectile mass, impact velocity and impact angle (5 degree and 10 degree impacts). The amount of TPS acreage foam loss as a result of the various impact conditions is presented.

The direct mechanical influence of sea ice state on ice sheet mass loss via iceberg mélange

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robel, A.

2017-12-01

The interaction between sea ice and land ice has typically been considered as a large-scale exchange of moisture, heat and salinity through the ocean and atmosphere. However, recent observations from marine-terminating glaciers in Greenland indicate that the long-term decline of local sea ice cover has been accompanied by an increase in nearby iceberg calving and associated ice sheet mass loss. Near glacier calving fronts, sea ice binds icebergs together into an aggregate granular material known as iceberg mélange. Studies have hypothesized that mélange may suppress calving by exerting a mechanical buttressing force directly on the glacier terminus. Here, we show explicitly how sea ice thickness and concentration play a critical role in setting the material strength of mélange. To do so, we adapt a discrete element model to simulate mélange as a cohesive granular material. In these simulations, mélange laden with thick, dense, landfast sea ice can produce enough resistance to shut down calving at the terminus. When sea ice thins, mélange weakens, reducing the mechanical force of mélange on the glacier terminus, and increasing the likelihood of calving. We discuss whether longer periods of sea-ice-free conditions in winter may lead to a transition from currently slow calving, predominantly occurring in the summer, to rapid calving, occurring throughout the year. We also discuss the potential role of freshwater discharge in promoting sea ice formation in fjords, potentially strengthening mélange.

Off-Ice Anaerobic Power Does Not Predict On-Ice Repeated Shift Performance in Hockey.

PubMed

Peterson, Ben J; Fitzgerald, John S; Dietz, Calvin C; Ziegler, Kevin S; Baker, Sarah E; Snyder, Eric M

2016-09-01

Peterson, BJ, Fitzgerald, JS, Dietz, CC, Ziegler, KS, Baker, SE, and Snyder, EM. Off-ice anaerobic power does not predict on-ice repeated shift performance in hockey. J Strength Cond Res 30(9): 2375-2381, 2016-Anaerobic power is a significant predictor of acceleration and top speed in team sport athletes. Historically, these findings have been applied to ice hockey although recent research has brought their validity for this sport into question. As ice hockey emphasizes the ability to repeatedly produce power, single bout anaerobic power tests should be examined to determine their ability to predict on-ice performance. We tested whether conventional off-ice anaerobic power tests could predict on-ice acceleration, top speed, and repeated shift performance. Forty-five hockey players, aged 18-24 years, completed anthropometric, off-ice, and on-ice tests. Anthropometric and off-ice testing included height, weight, body composition, vertical jump, and Wingate tests. On-ice testing consisted of acceleration, top speed, and repeated shift fatigue tests. Vertical jump (VJ) (r = -0.42; r = -0.58), Wingate relative peak power (WRPP) (r = -0.32; r = -0.43), and relative mean power (WRMP) (r = -0.34; r = -0.48) were significantly correlated (p ≤ 0.05) to on-ice acceleration and top speed, respectively. Conversely, none of the off-ice tests correlated with on-ice repeated shift performance, as measured by first gate, second gate, or total course fatigue; VJ (r = 0.06; r = 0.13; r = 0.09), WRPP (r = 0.06; r = 0.14; r = 0.10), or WRMP (r = -0.10; r = -0.01; r = -0.01). Although conventional off-ice anaerobic power tests predict single bout on-ice acceleration and top speed, they neither predict the repeated shift ability of the player, nor are good markers for performance in ice hockey.

Volcano–ice interactions precursory to the 2009 eruption of Redoubt Volcano, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bleick, Heather A.; Coombs, Michelle L.; Cervelli, Peter F.; Bull, Katharine F.; Wessels, Rick

2013-01-01

In late summer of 2008, after nearly 20 years of quiescence, Redoubt Volcano began to show signs of abnormal heat flow in its summit crater. In the months that followed, the excess heat triggered melting and ablation of Redoubt's glaciers, beginning at the summit and propagating to lower elevations as the unrest accelerated. A variety of morphological changes were observed, including the creation of ice cauldrons, areas of wide-spread subsidence, punctures in the ice carved out by steam, and deposition from debris flows. In this paper, we use visual observations, satellite data, and a high resolution digital elevation model of the volcanic edifice to calculate ice loss at Redoubt as a function of time. Our aim is to establish from this time series a proxy for heat flow that can be compared to other data sets collected along the same time interval. Our study area consists of the Drift glacier, which flows from the summit crater down the volcano's north slope, and makes up about one quarter of Redoubt's total ice volume of ~ 4 km3. The upper part of the Drift glacier covers the area of recent volcanism, making this part of ice mass most susceptible to the effect of volcanic heating. Moreover, melt water and other flows are channeled down the Drift glacier drainage by topography, leaving the remainder of Redoubt's ice mantle relatively unaffected. The rate of ice loss averaged around 0.1 m3/s over the last four months of 2008, accelerated to over twenty times this value by February 2009, and peaked at greater than 22 m3/s, just prior to the first major explosion on March 22, 2009. We estimate a cumulative ice loss over this period of about 35 million cubic meters (M m3).

Did accelerated North American ice sheet melt contribute to the 8.2 ka cooling event ?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matero, Ilkka S. O.; Gregoire, Lauren J.; Ivanović, Ruža F.; Tindall, Julia C.; Haywood, Alan M.

2016-04-01

The 8.2 ka event was an abrupt cooling of the Northern Hemisphere 8,200 years ago. It is an almost ideal case study to benchmark the sensitivity of climate models to freshening of the North Atlantic by ice sheet melt (Schmidt and LeGrande, 2005). The event is attributed to the outburst of North American proglacial lakes into the Labrador Sea, causing a slow-down in Atlantic overturning circulation and cooling of 1-2.5 °C around the N. Atlantic (Alley and Ágústsdóttir,2005). Climate models fail to simulate the ~150 year duration of the event when forced with a sudden (0.5 to 5 years) drainage of the lakes (Morrill et al., 2013a). This could be because of missing forcings. For example, the separation of ice sheet domes around the Hudson Bay is thought to have produced a pronounced acceleration in ice sheet melt through a saddle collapse mechanism around the time of the event (Gregoire et al., 2012). Here we investigate whether this century scale acceleration of melt contributed to the observed climatic perturbation, using the coupled Ocean-Atmosphere climate model HadCM3. We designed and ran a set of simulations with temporally variable ice melt scenarios based on a model of the North American ice sheet. The simulated magnitude and duration of the cold period is controlled by the duration and amount of freshwater introduced to the ocean. With a 100-200 year-long acceleration of ice melt up to a maximum of 0.61 Sv, we simulate 1-3 °C cooling in the North Atlantic and ~0.5-1 °C cooling in Continental Europe; which are similar in magnitude to the ~1-2 °C cooling estimated from records for these areas (Morrill et al., 2013b). Some of the observed features are however not reproduced in our experiments, such as the most pronounced cooling of ~6 °C observed in central Greenland (Alley and Ágústsdóttir, 2005). The results suggest that the ~150 year North Atlantic and European cooling could be caused by ~200 years of accelerated North American ice sheet melt. This

Abrupt shift in the observed runoff from the southwestern Greenland ice sheet

PubMed Central

Ahlstrøm, Andreas P.; Petersen, Dorthe; Langen, Peter L.; Citterio, Michele; Box, Jason E.

2017-01-01

The recent decades of accelerating mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet have arisen from an increase in both surface meltwater runoff and ice flow discharge from tidewater glaciers. Despite the role of the Greenland ice sheet as the dominant individual cryospheric contributor to sea level rise in recent decades, no observational record of its mass loss spans the 30-year period needed to assess its climatological state. We present for the first time a 40-year (1975–2014) time series of observed meltwater discharge from a >6500-km2 catchment of the southwestern Greenland ice sheet. We find that an abrupt 80% increase in runoff occurring between the 1976–2002 and 2003–2014 periods is due to a shift in atmospheric circulation, with meridional exchange events occurring more frequently over Greenland, establishing the first observation-based connection between ice sheet runoff and climate change. PMID:29242827

Ice-Cliff Failure via Retrogressive Slumping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parizek, B. R.; Christianson, K.; Alley, R. B.; Voytenko, D.; Vankova, I.; Dixon, T. H.; Holland, D.

2016-12-01

The magnitude and rate of future sea-level rise from warming-induced ice-sheet shrinkage remain notably uncertain. Removal of most of an ice sheet by surface melting alone requires centuries to millennia. Oceanic warming may accelerate loss by removing buttressing ice shelves and thereby speeding flow of non-floating ice into the ocean, but, until recently, modeled timescales for major dynamic ice-sheet shrinkage were centuries or longer. Beyond certain thresholds, however, observations show that warming removes floating ice shelves, leaving grounded ice cliffs from which icebergs break off directly. Cliffs higher than some limit experience rapid structural failure. Recent parameterization of this process in a comprehensive ice-flow model produced much faster sea-level rise from future rapid warming than in previous modeling studies, through formation and retreat of tall ice cliffs. Fully physical representations of this process are not yet available, however. Here, we use modeling guided by terrestrial radar data from Helheim Glacier, Greenland to show that cliffs will fail by slumping and trigger rapid retreat at a threshold height that, in crevassed ice with surface melting, may be only slightly above the 100-m maximum observed today, but may be roughly twice that (180-275 m) in mechanically-competent ice under well-drained or low-melt conditions.

Geoengineering Marine Ice Sheets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wolovick, M.

2017-12-01

Mass loss from Greenland and Antarctica is highly sensitive to the presence of warm ocean water that drives melting at the grounding line. Rapid melting near the grounding line causes ice shelf thinning, loss of buttressing, flow acceleration, grounding line retreat, and ultimately mass loss and sea-level rise. If the grounding line enters a section of overdeepened bed the ice sheet may even enter a runaway collapse via the marine ice sheet instability. The warm water that triggers this process resides offshore at depth and accesses the grounding line through deep troughs in the continental shelf. In Greenland, warm water transport is further constricted through narrow fjords. Here, I propose blocking warm water transport through these choke points with an artificial sill. Using a simple width- and depth-averaged model of ice stream flow coupled to a buoyant-plume model of ocean melting, I find that grounding line retreat and sea level rise can be delayed or reversed for hundreds of years if warm water is prevented from accessing the grounding line at depth. Blocking of warm water from the sub-ice cavity causes ice shelf thickening, increased buttressing, and grounding line readvance. The increase in buttressing is greatly magnified if the thickened ice shelf regrounds on a bathymetric high or on the artificial sill itself. In some experiments for Thwaites Glacier the grounding line is able to recover from a severely retreated state over 100 km behind its present-day position. Such a dramatic recovery demonstrates that it is possible, at least in principle, to stop and reverse an ongoing marine ice sheet collapse. If the ice shelf regrounds on the artificial sill itself, erosion of the sill beneath the grounded ice could reduce the effectiveness of the intervention. However, experiments including sill erosion suggest that even a very weak sill (1 kPa) could delay a collapse for centuries. The scale of the artificial sills in Greenlandic fjords is comparable to

Laser altimetry reveals complex pattern of Greenland Ice Sheet dynamics.

PubMed

Csatho, Beata M; Schenk, Anton F; van der Veen, Cornelis J; Babonis, Gregory; Duncan, Kyle; Rezvanbehbahani, Soroush; van den Broeke, Michiel R; Simonsen, Sebastian B; Nagarajan, Sudhagar; van Angelen, Jan H

2014-12-30

We present a new record of ice thickness change, reconstructed at nearly 100,000 sites on the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) from laser altimetry measurements spanning the period 1993-2012, partitioned into changes due to surface mass balance (SMB) and ice dynamics. We estimate a mean annual GrIS mass loss of 243 ± 18 Gt ⋅ y(-1), equivalent to 0.68 mm ⋅ y(-1) sea level rise (SLR) for 2003-2009. Dynamic thinning contributed 48%, with the largest rates occurring in 2004-2006, followed by a gradual decrease balanced by accelerating SMB loss. The spatial pattern of dynamic mass loss changed over this time as dynamic thinning rapidly decreased in southeast Greenland but slowly increased in the southwest, north, and northeast regions. Most outlet glaciers have been thinning during the last two decades, interrupted by episodes of decreasing thinning or even thickening. Dynamics of the major outlet glaciers dominated the mass loss from larger drainage basins, and simultaneous changes over distances up to 500 km are detected, indicating climate control. However, the intricate spatiotemporal pattern of dynamic thickness change suggests that, regardless of the forcing responsible for initial glacier acceleration and thinning, the response of individual glaciers is modulated by local conditions. Recent projections of dynamic contributions from the entire GrIS to SLR have been based on the extrapolation of four major outlet glaciers. Considering the observed complexity, we question how well these four glaciers represent all of Greenland's outlet glaciers.

Channelized Melting Drives Thinning Under a Rapidly Melting Antarctic Ice Shelf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gourmelen, Noel; Goldberg, Dan N.; Snow, Kate; Henley, Sian F.; Bingham, Robert G.; Kimura, Satoshi; Hogg, Anna E.; Shepherd, Andrew; Mouginot, Jeremie; Lenaerts, Jan T. M.; Ligtenberg, Stefan R. M.; van de Berg, Willem Jan

2017-10-01

Ice shelves play a vital role in regulating loss of grounded ice and in supplying freshwater to coastal seas. However, melt variability within ice shelves is poorly constrained and may be instrumental in driving ice shelf imbalance and collapse. High-resolution altimetry measurements from 2010 to 2016 show that Dotson Ice Shelf (DIS), West Antarctica, thins in response to basal melting focused along a single 5 km-wide and 60 km-long channel extending from the ice shelf's grounding zone to its calving front. If focused thinning continues at present rates, the channel will melt through, and the ice shelf collapse, within 40-50 years, almost two centuries before collapse is projected from the average thinning rate. Our findings provide evidence of basal melt-driven sub-ice shelf channel formation and its potential for accelerating the weakening of ice shelves.

Future loss of Arctic sea-ice cover could drive a substantial decrease in California's rainfall.

PubMed

Cvijanovic, Ivana; Santer, Benjamin D; Bonfils, Céline; Lucas, Donald D; Chiang, John C H; Zimmerman, Susan

2017-12-05

From 2012 to 2016, California experienced one of the worst droughts since the start of observational records. As in previous dry periods, precipitation-inducing winter storms were steered away from California by a persistent atmospheric ridging system in the North Pacific. Here we identify a new link between Arctic sea-ice loss and the North Pacific geopotential ridge development. In a two-step teleconnection, sea-ice changes lead to reorganization of tropical convection that in turn triggers an anticyclonic response over the North Pacific, resulting in significant drying over California. These findings suggest that the ability of climate models to accurately estimate future precipitation changes over California is also linked to the fidelity with which future sea-ice changes are simulated. We conclude that sea-ice loss of the magnitude expected in the next decades could substantially impact California's precipitation, thus highlighting another mechanism by which human-caused climate change could exacerbate future California droughts.

Using the glacial geomorphology of palaeo-ice streams to understand mechanisms of ice sheet collapse

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stokes, Chris R.; Margold, Martin; Clark, Chris; Tarasov, Lev

2017-04-01

Processes which bring about ice sheet deglaciation are critical to our understanding of glacial-interglacial cycles and ice sheet sensitivity to climate change. The precise mechanisms of deglaciation are also relevant to our understanding of modern-day ice sheet stability and concerns over global sea level rise. Mass loss from ice sheets can be broadly partitioned between melting and a 'dynamic' component whereby rapidly-flowing ice streams/outlet glaciers transfer ice from the interior to the oceans. Surface and basal melting (e.g. of ice shelves) are closely linked to atmospheric and oceanic conditions, but the mechanisms that drive dynamic changes in ice stream discharge are more complex, which generates much larger uncertainties about their future contribution to ice sheet mass loss and sea level rise. A major problem is that observations of modern-day ice streams typically span just a few decades and, at the ice-sheet scale, it is unclear how the entire drainage network of ice streams evolves during deglaciation. A key question is whether ice streams might increase and sustain rates of mass loss over centuries or millennia, beyond those expected for a given ocean-climate forcing. To address this issue, numerous workers have sought to understand ice stream dynamics over longer time-scales using their glacial geomorphology in the palaeo-record. Indeed, our understanding of their geomorphology has grown rapidly in the last three decades, from almost complete ignorance to a detailed knowledge of their geomorphological products. Building on this body of work, this paper uses the glacial geomorphology of 117 ice streams in the North American Laurentide Ice Sheet to reconstruct their activity during its deglaciation ( 22,000 to 7,000 years ago). Ice stream activity was characterised by high variability in both time and space, with ice streams switching on and off in different locations. During deglaciation, we find that their overall number decreased, they occupied a

The performance of probiotic fermented sheep milk and ice cream sheep milk in inhibiting enamel mineral loss.

PubMed

Nadelman, P; Frazão, J V; Vieira, T I; Balthazar, C F; Andrade, M M; Alexandria, A K; Cruz, A G; Fonseca-Gonçalves, A; Maia, L C

2017-07-01

The study aimed to evaluate the effects of two different sheep milk-based food matrices - fermented sheep milk and ice cream - with added probiotic bacteria (Lactobacillus casei 431) on dental enamel subjected to an in vitro highly cariogenic challenge. Sixty enamel blocks were selected and randomly allocated into five treatment groups (n=12): conventional fermented sheep milk (CFSM), probiotic fermented sheep milk (PFSM), conventional sheep milk ice cream (CSMIC), probiotic sheep milk ice cream (PSMIC) and control using deionized water. The blocks were subjected to highly cariogenic pH cycling and the products were applied (5min), in a blinded way, once a day to simulate a daily use for 8 consecutive days. A microhardness test was performed before and after the treatment to estimate the percentage of microhardness surface loss (% SML). Scanning electronic microscopy (SEM) was performed to confirm the mineral loss. All groups had lost microhardness after the experiment. However, CFSM and PFSM exhibited the most positive findings when compared to the control in both ice creams. Scanning electron microscopy showed less mineral loss in CFSM and PFSM compared with CSMIC, PSMIC and control after the cariogenic challenge. Overall, fermented milk decreased mineral loss from enamel subjected to a highly cariogenic challenge, regardless of the presence of probiotics in their composition, which had a higher efficacy compared to ice cream. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Acceleration of Cooling of Ice Giants by Condensation in Early Atmospheres

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kurosaki, Kenji; Ikoma, Masahiro, E-mail: kurosaki.k@nagoya-u.jp, E-mail: ikoma@eps.s.u-tokyo.ac.jp

The present infrared brightness of a planet originates partly from the accretion energy that the planet gained during its formation and hence provides important constraints to the planet formation process. A planet cools down from a hot initial state to the present state by losing energy through radiative emission from its atmosphere. Thus, the atmospheric properties affect the planetary cooling rate. Previous theories of giant planet cooling assume that the atmospheric composition is unchanged throughout the evolution. Planet formation theories, however, suggest that the atmospheres especially of ice giants are rich in heavy elements in the early stages. These heavy elementsmore » include condensable species such as H{sub 2}O, NH{sub 3}, and CH{sub 4}, which are expected to have a great impact on atmospheric temperature and thus on radiative emission through latent heat release. In this study we investigate the effect of such condensation on the planetary emission flux and quantify the impact on the cooling timescale. We then demonstrate that the latent heat of these species keeps the atmosphere hot and thus the emission flux high for billions of years, resulting in an acceleration of the cooling of ice giants. This sheds light on the long-standing problem that Uranus is much less bright than theoretically predicted and is different in brightness from Neptune in spite of the similarity in mass and radius. We also find that young ice giants with highly enriched atmospheres are much brighter in the mid-infrared than ice giants with non-enriched atmospheres. This provides important implications for future direct imaging of extrasolar ice giants.« less

Radial growth of hardwoods following the 1998 ice storm in New Hampshire and Maine

Treesearch

Kevin T. Smith; Walter C. Shortle

2003-01-01

Ice storms and resulting injury to tree crowns occur frequently in North America. Reaction of land managers to injury caused by the regional ice storm of January 1998 had the potential to accelerate the harvesting of northern hardwoods due to concern about the future loss of wood production by injured trees. To assess the effect of this storm on radial stem growth,...

The safety band of Antarctic ice shelves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fürst, Johannes Jakob; Durand, Gaël; Gillet-Chaulet, Fabien; Tavard, Laure; Rankl, Melanie; Braun, Matthias; Gagliardini, Olivier

2016-05-01

The floating ice shelves along the seaboard of the Antarctic ice sheet restrain the outflow of upstream grounded ice. Removal of these ice shelves, as shown by past ice-shelf recession and break-up, accelerates the outflow, which adds to sea-level rise. A key question in predicting future outflow is to quantify the extent of calving that might precondition other dynamic consequences and lead to loss of ice-shelf restraint. Here we delineate frontal areas that we label as `passive shelf ice’ and that can be removed without major dynamic implications, with contrasting results across the continent. The ice shelves in the Amundsen and Bellingshausen seas have limited or almost no `passive’ portion, which implies that further retreat of current ice-shelf fronts will yield important dynamic consequences. This region is particularly vulnerable as ice shelves have been thinning at high rates for two decades and as upstream grounded ice rests on a backward sloping bed, a precondition to marine ice-sheet instability. In contrast to these ice shelves, Larsen C Ice Shelf, in the Weddell Sea, exhibits a large `passive’ frontal area, suggesting that the imminent calving of a vast tabular iceberg will be unlikely to instantly produce much dynamic change.

Rewriting Ice Sheet "Glacier-ology"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bindschadler, R.

2006-12-01

The revolution in glaciology driven by the suite of increasingly sophisticated satellite instruments has been no more extreme than in the area of ice dynamics. Years ago, glaciologists were (probably unwittingly) selective in what properties of mountain glaciers were also applied to ice sheets. This reinforced the view that they responded slowly to their environment. Notions of rapid response driven by the ideas of John Mercer, Bill Budd and Terry Hughes were politely rejected by the centrists of mainstream glaciological thought. How the tables have turned--and by the ice sheets themselves, captured in the act of rapidly changing by modern remote sensors! The saw-toothed record of sea-level change over past glacial-interglacial cycles required the existence of rapid ice loss processes. Satellite based observations, supported by hard-earned field observations have extended the time scale over which ice sheets can suddenly change to ever shorter intervals: from centuries, to decades, to years to even minutes. As changes continue to be observed, the scientific community is forced to consider new or previously ignored processes to explain these observations. The penultimate goal of ice-sheet dynamics is to credibly predict the future of both the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. In this important endeavor, there is no substitute for our ability to observe. Without the extensive data sets provided by remote sensing, numerical models can be neither tested nor improved. The impact of remote sensing on our existing ability to predict the future must be compared to our probable state of knowledge and ability were these data never collected. Among many satellite observed phenomena we would be largely or wholly ignorant of are the recent acceleration of ice throughout much of coastal Greenland; the sudden disintegration of multiple ice shelves along the Antarctic Peninsula; and the dramatic thinning and acceleration of the Amundsen Sea sector of West Antarctica. These

Recent Changes in Ices Mass Balance of the Amundsen Sea Sector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sutterley, T. C.; Velicogna, I.; Rignot, E. J.; Mouginot, J.; Flament, T.; van den Broeke, M. R.; van Wessem, M.; Reijmer, C.

2014-12-01

The glaciers flowing into the Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE) sector of West Antarctica were confirmed in the Ice Sheet Mass Balance Inter-comparison Exercise (IMBIE) to be the dominant contributors to the current Antarctic ice mass loss, and recently recognized to be undergoing marine ice sheet instability. Here, we investigate their regional ice mass balance using a time series of satellite and airborne data combined with model output products from the Regional Atmospheric and Climate Model (RACMO). Our dataset includes laser altimetry from NASA's ICESat-1 satellite mission and from Operation IceBridge (OIB) airborne surveys, satellite radar altimetry data from ESA's Envisat mission, time-variable gravity data from NASA/DLR's GRACE mission, surface mass balance products from RACMO, ice velocity from a combination of international synthetic aperture radar satellites and ice thickness data from OIB. We find a record of ice mass balance for the ASE where all the analyzed techniques agree remarkably in magnitude and temporal variability. The mass loss of the region has been increasing continuously since 1992, with no indication of a slow down. The mass loss during the common period averaged 91 Gt/yr and accelerated 20 Gt/yr2. In 1992-2013, the ASE contributed 4.5 mm global sea level rise. Overall, our results demonstrate the synergy of multiple analysis techniques for examining Antarctic Ice Sheet mass balance at the regional scale. This work was performed at UCI and JPL under a contract with NASA.

Quantifying ice loss in the eastern Himalayas since 1974 using declassified spy satellite imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maurer, Joshua M.; Rupper, Summer B.; Schaefer, Joerg M.

2016-09-01

Himalayan glaciers are important natural resources and climate indicators for densely populated regions in Asia. Remote sensing methods are vital for evaluating glacier response to changing climate over the vast and rugged Himalayan region, yet many platforms capable of glacier mass balance quantification are somewhat temporally limited due to typical glacier response times. We here rely on declassified spy satellite imagery and ASTER data to quantify surface lowering, ice volume change, and geodetic mass balance during 1974-2006 for glaciers in the eastern Himalayas, centered on the Bhutan-China border. The wide range of glacier types allows for the first mass balance comparison between clean, debris, and lake-terminating (calving) glaciers in the region. Measured glaciers show significant ice loss, with an estimated mean annual geodetic mass balance of -0.13 ± 0.06 m w.e. yr-1 (meters of water equivalent per year) for 10 clean-ice glaciers, -0.19 ± 0.11 m w.e. yr-1 for 5 debris-covered glaciers, -0.28 ± 0.10 m w.e. yr-1 for 6 calving glaciers, and -0.17 ± 0.05 m w.e. yr-1 for all glaciers combined. Contrasting hypsometries along with melt pond, ice cliff, and englacial conduit mechanisms result in statistically similar mass balance values for both clean-ice and debris-covered glacier groups. Calving glaciers comprise 18 % (66 km2) of the glacierized area yet have contributed 30 % (-0.7 km3) to the total ice volume loss, highlighting the growing relevance of proglacial lake formation and associated calving for the future ice mass budget of the Himalayas as the number and size of glacial lakes increase.

Greater role for Atlantic inflows on sea-ice loss in the Eurasian Basin of the Arctic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Polyakov, Igor V.; Pnyushkov, Andrey V.; Alkire, Matthew B.; Ashik, Igor M.; Baumann, Till M.; Carmack, Eddy C.; Goszczko, Ilona; Guthrie, John; Ivanov, Vladimir V.; Kanzow, Torsten; Krishfield, Richard; Kwok, Ronald; Sundfjord, Arild; Morison, James; Rember, Robert; Yulin, Alexander

2017-04-01

Arctic sea-ice loss is a leading indicator of climate change and can be attributed, in large part, to atmospheric forcing. Here, we show that recent ice reductions, weakening of the halocline, and shoaling of the intermediate-depth Atlantic Water layer in the eastern Eurasian Basin have increased winter ventilation in the ocean interior, making this region structurally similar to that of the western Eurasian Basin. The associated enhanced release of oceanic heat has reduced winter sea-ice formation at a rate now comparable to losses from atmospheric thermodynamic forcing, thus explaining the recent reduction in sea-ice cover in the eastern Eurasian Basin. This encroaching “atlantification” of the Eurasian Basin represents an essential step toward a new Arctic climate state, with a substantially greater role for Atlantic inflows.

Three dimensional numerical prediction of icing related power and energy losses on a wind turbine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sagol, Ece

Regions of Canada experience harsh winter conditions that may persist for several months. Consequently, wind turbines located in these regions are exposed to ice accretion and its adverse effects, from loss of power to ceasing to function altogether. Since the weather-related annual energy production loss of a turbine may be as high as 16% of the nominal production for Canada, estimating these losses before the construction of a wind farm is essential for investors. A literature survey shows that most icing prediction methods and codes are developed for aircraft, and, as this information is mostly considered corporate intellectual property, it is not accessible to researchers in other domains. Moreover, aircraft icing is quite different from wind turbine icing. Wind turbines are exposed to icing conditions for much longer periods than aircraft, perhaps for several days in a harsh climate, whereas the maximum length of exposure of an aircraft is about 3-4 hours. In addition, wind turbine blades operate at subsonic speeds, at lower Reynolds numbers than aircraft, and their physical characteristics are different. A few icing codes have been developed for wind turbine icing nevertheless. However, they are either in 2D, which does not consider the 3D characteristics of the flow field, or they focus on simulating each rotation in a time-dependent manner, which is not practical for computing long hours of ice accretion. Our objective in this thesis is to develop a 3D numerical methodology to predict rime ice shape and the power loss of a wind turbine as a function of wind farm icing conditions. In addition, we compute the Annual Energy Production of a sample turbine under both clean and icing conditions. The sample turbine we have selected is the NREL Phase VI experimental wind turbine installed on a wind farm in Sweden, the icing events at which have been recorded and published. The proposed method is based on computing and validating the clean performance of the turbine

Fast Response of the Tropics to an Abrupt Loss of Arctic Sea Ice via Ocean Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Kun; Deser, Clara; Sun, Lantao; Tomas, Robert A.

2018-05-01

The role of ocean dynamics in the transient adjustment of the coupled climate system to an abrupt loss of Arctic sea ice is investigated using experiments with Community Climate System Model version 4 in two configurations: a thermodynamic slab mixed layer ocean and a full-depth ocean that includes both dynamics and thermodynamics. Ocean dynamics produce a distinct sea surface temperature warming maximum in the eastern equatorial Pacific, accompanied by an equatorward intensification of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and Hadley Circulation. These tropical responses are established within 25 years of ice loss and contrast markedly with the quasi-steady antisymmetric coupled response in the slab-ocean configuration. A heat budget analysis reveals the importance of anomalous vertical advection tied to a monotonic temperature increase below 200 m for the equatorial sea surface temperature warming maximum in the fully coupled model. Ocean dynamics also rapidly modify the midlatitude atmospheric response to sea ice loss.

Sea ice, rain-on-snow and tundra reindeer nomadism in Arctic Russia

PubMed Central

Kumpula, Timo; Meschtyb, Nina; Laptander, Roza; Macias-Fauria, Marc; Zetterberg, Pentti; Verdonen, Mariana; Kim, Kwang-Yul; Boisvert, Linette N.; Stroeve, Julienne C.; Bartsch, Annett

2016-01-01

Sea ice loss is accelerating in the Barents and Kara Seas (BKS). Assessing potential linkages between sea ice retreat/thinning and the region's ancient and unique social–ecological systems is a pressing task. Tundra nomadism remains a vitally important livelihood for indigenous Nenets and their large reindeer herds. Warming summer air temperatures have been linked to more frequent and sustained summer high-pressure systems over West Siberia, Russia, but not to sea ice retreat. At the same time, autumn/winter rain-on-snow (ROS) events have become more frequent and intense. Here, we review evidence for autumn atmospheric warming and precipitation increases over Arctic coastal lands in proximity to BKS ice loss. Two major ROS events during November 2006 and 2013 led to massive winter reindeer mortality episodes on the Yamal Peninsula. Fieldwork with migratory herders has revealed that the ecological and socio-economic impacts from the catastrophic 2013 event will unfold for years to come. The suggested link between sea ice loss, more frequent and intense ROS events and high reindeer mortality has serious implications for the future of tundra Nenets nomadism. PMID:27852939

Sea ice, rain-on-snow and tundra reindeer nomadism in Arctic Russia.

PubMed

Forbes, Bruce C; Kumpula, Timo; Meschtyb, Nina; Laptander, Roza; Macias-Fauria, Marc; Zetterberg, Pentti; Verdonen, Mariana; Skarin, Anna; Kim, Kwang-Yul; Boisvert, Linette N; Stroeve, Julienne C; Bartsch, Annett

2016-11-01

Sea ice loss is accelerating in the Barents and Kara Seas (BKS). Assessing potential linkages between sea ice retreat/thinning and the region's ancient and unique social-ecological systems is a pressing task. Tundra nomadism remains a vitally important livelihood for indigenous Nenets and their large reindeer herds. Warming summer air temperatures have been linked to more frequent and sustained summer high-pressure systems over West Siberia, Russia, but not to sea ice retreat. At the same time, autumn/winter rain-on-snow (ROS) events have become more frequent and intense. Here, we review evidence for autumn atmospheric warming and precipitation increases over Arctic coastal lands in proximity to BKS ice loss. Two major ROS events during November 2006 and 2013 led to massive winter reindeer mortality episodes on the Yamal Peninsula. Fieldwork with migratory herders has revealed that the ecological and socio-economic impacts from the catastrophic 2013 event will unfold for years to come. The suggested link between sea ice loss, more frequent and intense ROS events and high reindeer mortality has serious implications for the future of tundra Nenets nomadism. © 2016 The Authors.

Ice Crystal Icing Research at NASA

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Flegel, Ashlie B.

2017-01-01

Ice crystals found at high altitude near convective clouds are known to cause jet engine power-loss events. These events occur due to ice crystals entering a propulsion system's core flowpath and accreting ice resulting in events such as uncommanded loss of thrust (rollback), engine stall, surge, and damage due to ice shedding. As part of a community with a growing need to understand the underlying physics of ice crystal icing, NASA has been performing experimental efforts aimed at providing datasets that can be used to generate models to predict the ice accretion inside current and future engine designs. Fundamental icing physics studies on particle impacts, accretion on a single airfoil, and ice accretions observed during a rollback event inside a full-scale engine in the Propulsion Systems Laboratory are summarized. Low fidelity code development using the results from the engine tests which identify key parameters for ice accretion risk and the development of high fidelity codes are described. These activities have been conducted internal to NASA and through collaboration efforts with industry, academia, and other government agencies. The details of the research activities and progress made to date in addressing ice crystal icing research challenges are discussed.

Ice Crystal Icing Research at NASA

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Flegel, Ashlie B.

2017-01-01

Ice crystals found at high altitude near convective clouds are known to cause jet engine power-loss events. These events occur due to ice crystals entering a propulsion systems core flowpath and accreting ice resulting in events such as uncommanded loss of thrust (rollback), engine stall, surge, and damage due to ice shedding. As part of a community with a growing need to understand the underlying physics of ice crystal icing, NASA has been performing experimental efforts aimed at providing datasets that can be used to generate models to predict the ice accretion inside current and future engine designs. Fundamental icing physics studies on particle impacts, accretion on a single airfoil, and ice accretions observed during a rollback event inside a full-scale engine in the Propulsion Systems Laboratory are summarized. Low fidelity code development using the results from the engine tests which identify key parameters for ice accretion risk and the development of high fidelity codes are described. These activities have been conducted internal to NASA and through collaboration efforts with industry, academia, and other government agencies. The details of the research activities and progress made to date in addressing ice crystal icing research challenges are discussed.

Laser altimetry reveals complex pattern of Greenland Ice Sheet dynamics

PubMed Central

Csatho, Beata M.; Schenk, Anton F.; van der Veen, Cornelis J.; Babonis, Gregory; Duncan, Kyle; Rezvanbehbahani, Soroush; van den Broeke, Michiel R.; Simonsen, Sebastian B.; Nagarajan, Sudhagar; van Angelen, Jan H.

2014-01-01

We present a new record of ice thickness change, reconstructed at nearly 100,000 sites on the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) from laser altimetry measurements spanning the period 1993–2012, partitioned into changes due to surface mass balance (SMB) and ice dynamics. We estimate a mean annual GrIS mass loss of 243 ± 18 Gt⋅y−1, equivalent to 0.68 mm⋅y−1 sea level rise (SLR) for 2003–2009. Dynamic thinning contributed 48%, with the largest rates occurring in 2004–2006, followed by a gradual decrease balanced by accelerating SMB loss. The spatial pattern of dynamic mass loss changed over this time as dynamic thinning rapidly decreased in southeast Greenland but slowly increased in the southwest, north, and northeast regions. Most outlet glaciers have been thinning during the last two decades, interrupted by episodes of decreasing thinning or even thickening. Dynamics of the major outlet glaciers dominated the mass loss from larger drainage basins, and simultaneous changes over distances up to 500 km are detected, indicating climate control. However, the intricate spatiotemporal pattern of dynamic thickness change suggests that, regardless of the forcing responsible for initial glacier acceleration and thinning, the response of individual glaciers is modulated by local conditions. Recent projections of dynamic contributions from the entire GrIS to SLR have been based on the extrapolation of four major outlet glaciers. Considering the observed complexity, we question how well these four glaciers represent all of Greenland’s outlet glaciers. PMID:25512537

Associations between accelerated glacier mass wastage and increased summer temperature in coastal regions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dyurgerov, M.; McCabe, G.J.

2006-01-01

Low-elevation glaciers in coastal regions of Alaska, the Canadian Arctic, individual ice caps around the Greenland ice sheet, and the Patagonia Ice Fields have an aggregate glacier area of about 332 ?? 103 km 2 and account for approximately 42% of all the glacier area outside the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. They have shown volume loss, especially since the end of the 1980s, increasing from about 45% in the 1960s to nearly 67% in 2003 of the total wastage from all glaciers on Earth outside those two largest ice sheets. Thus, a disproportionally large contribution of coastal glacier ablation to sea level rise is evident. We examine cumulative standardized departures (1961-2000 reference period) of glacier mass balances and air temperature data in these four coastal regions. Analyses indicate a strong association between increases in glacier volume losses and summer air temperature at regional and global scales. Increases in glacier volume losses in the coastal regions also coincide with an accelerated rate of ice discharge from outlet glaciers draining the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets. These processes imply further increases in sea level rise. ?? 2006 Regents of the University of Colorado.

Rapid Holocene thinning of an East Antarctic outlet glacier driven by marine ice sheet instability

PubMed Central

Jones, R. S.; Mackintosh, A. N.; Norton, K. P.; Golledge, N. R.; Fogwill, C. J.; Kubik, P. W.; Christl, M.; Greenwood, S. L.

2015-01-01

Outlet glaciers grounded on a bed that deepens inland and extends below sea level are potentially vulnerable to ‘marine ice sheet instability'. This instability, which may lead to runaway ice loss, has been simulated in models, but its consequences have not been directly observed in geological records. Here we provide new surface-exposure ages from an outlet of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet that reveal rapid glacier thinning occurred approximately 7,000 years ago, in the absence of large environmental changes. Glacier thinning persisted for more than two and a half centuries, resulting in hundreds of metres of ice loss. Numerical simulations indicate that ice surface drawdown accelerated when the otherwise steadily retreating glacier encountered a bedrock trough. Together, the geological reconstruction and numerical simulations suggest that centennial-scale glacier thinning arose from unstable grounding line retreat. Capturing these instability processes in ice sheet models is important for predicting Antarctica's future contribution to sea level change. PMID:26608558

Exploring the sensitivity of global ocean circulation to future ice loss from Antarctica

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Condron, Alan

The sensitivity of the global ocean circulation and climate to large increases in iceberg calving and meltwater discharges from the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) are rarely studied and poorly understood. The requirement to investigate this topic is heightened by growing evidence that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is vulnerable to rapid retreat and collapse on multidecadal-to-centennial timescales. Observations collected over the last 30 years indicate that the WAIS is now losing mass at an accelerated and that a collapse may have already begun in the Amundsen Sea sector. In addition, some recent future model simulations of the AIS showmore » the potential for rapid ice sheet retreat in the next 50 – 300 years. Such a collapse would be associated with the discharge of enormous volumes of ice and meltwater to the Southern Ocean. This project funds PI Condron to begin assessing the sensitivity of the global ocean circulation to projected increases in meltwater discharge and iceberg calving from the AIS for the next 50 – 100 years. A series of climate model simulations will determine changes in ocean circulation and temperature at the ice sheet grounding line, the role of mesoscale ocean eddies in mixing and transporting freshwater away from the continent to deep water formation regions, and the likely impact on the northward transport of heat to Europe and North America.« less

Rapid Ice Mass Loss: Does It Have an Influence on Earthquake Occurrence in Southern Alaska?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sauber, Jeanne M.

2008-01-01

The glaciers of southern Alaska are extensive, and many of them have undergone gigatons of ice wastage on time scales on the order of the seismic cycle. Since the ice loss occurs directly above a shallow main thrust zone associated with subduction of the Pacific-Yakutat plate beneath continental Alaska, the region between the Malaspina and Bering Glaciers is an excellent test site for evaluating the importance of recent ice wastage on earthquake faulting potential. We demonstrate the influence of cumulative glacial mass loss following the 1899 Yakataga earthquake (M=8.1) by using a two dimensional finite element model with a simple representation of ice fluctuations to calculate the incremental stresses and change in the fault stability margin (FSM) along the main thrust zone (MTZ) and on the surface. Along the MTZ, our results indicate a decrease in FSM between 1899 and the 1979 St. Elias earthquake (M=7.4) of 0.2 - 1.2 MPa over an 80 km region between the coast and the 1979 aftershock zone; at the surface, the estimated FSM was larger but more localized to the lower reaches of glacial ablation zones. The ice-induced stresses were large enough, in theory, to promote the occurrence of shallow thrust earthquakes. To empirically test the influence of short-term ice fluctuations on fault stability, we compared the seismic rate from a reference background time period (1988-1992) against other time periods (1993-2006) with variable ice or tectonic change characteristics. We found that the frequency of small tectonic events in the Icy Bay region increased in 2002-2006 relative to the background seismic rate. We hypothesize that this was due to a significant increase in the rate of ice wastage in 2002-2006 instead of the M=7.9, 2002 Denali earthquake, located more than 100km away.

Glacier mass loss. Dynamic thinning of glaciers on the Southern Antarctic Peninsula.

PubMed

Wouters, B; Martin-Español, A; Helm, V; Flament, T; van Wessem, J M; Ligtenberg, S R M; van den Broeke, M R; Bamber, J L

2015-05-22

Growing evidence has demonstrated the importance of ice shelf buttressing on the inland grounded ice, especially if it is resting on bedrock below sea level. Much of the Southern Antarctic Peninsula satisfies this condition and also possesses a bed slope that deepens inland. Such ice sheet geometry is potentially unstable. We use satellite altimetry and gravity observations to show that a major portion of the region has, since 2009, destabilized. Ice mass loss of the marine-terminating glaciers has rapidly accelerated from close to balance in the 2000s to a sustained rate of -56 ± 8 gigatons per year, constituting a major fraction of Antarctica's contribution to rising sea level. The widespread, simultaneous nature of the acceleration, in the absence of a persistent atmospheric forcing, points to an oceanic driving mechanism. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Arctic Sea ice thickness loss determined using subsurface, aircraft, and satellite observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lindsay, R. W.; Schweiger, A. J. B.

2014-12-01

68% reduction and there is no indication it may be leveling off as seen in an earlier study of submarine ice drafts by Rothrock et al. (2008). This is nearly double the 36% decline report by them. These results provide additional direct observational confirmation of sea ice losses found in model reanalyses.

Accelerated wastage of the Monte Perdido Glacier in the Spanish Pyrenees during recent stationary climatic conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

López-Moreno, J. I.; Revuelto, J.; Rico, I.; Chueca-Cía, J.; Julián, A.; Serreta, A.; Serrano, E.; Vicente-Serrano, S. M.; Azorín-Molina, C.; Alonso-González, E.; García-Ruiz, J. M.

2015-09-01

This paper analyzes the evolution of the Monte Perdido Glacier, the third largest glacier of the Pyrenees, from 1981 to the present. We assessed the evolution of the glacier's surface area by use of aerial photographs from 1981, 1999, and 2006, and changes in ice volume by geodetic methods with digital elevation models (DEMs) generated from topographic maps (1981 and 1999), airborne LIDAR (2010) and terrestrial laser scanning (TLS, 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2014). We interpreted the changes in the glacier based on climate data from a nearby meteorological station. The results indicate an accelerated degradation of this glacier after 2000, with a rate of ice surface loss that was almost three-times greater from 2000 to 2006 than for earlier periods, and a doubling of the rate of ice volume loss from 1999 to 2010 (the ice depth decreased 8.98 ± 1.8 m, -0.72 ± 0.14 m w.e. yr-1) compared to 1981 to 1999 (the ice depth decreased 8.35 ± 2.12 m, -0.39 ± 0.1 m w.e. yr-1). This loss of glacial ice has continued from 2011 to 2014 (the ice depth decreased 2.1 ± 0.4 m, -0.64 ± 0.36 m w.e. yr-1). Local climatic changes during the study period cannot explain the acceleration in wastage rate of this glacier, because local precipitation and snow accumulation increased slightly, and local air temperature during the ablation period did not significantly increase. The accelerated degradation of this glacier in recent years can be explained by the lack of equilibrium between the glacier and the current climatic conditions. In particular, the average air temperature increased by at least 0.9 °C in this region since the end of the Little Ice Age (LIA) in the mid-1800s. Thus, this glacier shrinks dramatically during years with low accumulation or high air temperatures during the ablation season, but cannot recover during years with high accumulation or low air temperatures during the ablation season. The most recent TLS data support this interpretation. These data indicated that two

Arctic sea ice thickness loss determined using subsurface, aircraft, and satellite observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lindsay, R.; Schweiger, A.

2015-02-01

Sea ice thickness is a fundamental climate state variable that provides an integrated measure of changes in the high-latitude energy balance. However, observations of mean ice thickness have been sparse in time and space, making the construction of observation-based time series difficult. Moreover, different groups use a variety of methods and processing procedures to measure ice thickness, and each observational source likely has different and poorly characterized measurement and sampling errors. Observational sources used in this study include upward-looking sonars mounted on submarines or moorings, electromagnetic sensors on helicopters or aircraft, and lidar or radar altimeters on airplanes or satellites. Here we use a curve-fitting approach to determine the large-scale spatial and temporal variability of the ice thickness as well as the mean differences between the observation systems, using over 3000 estimates of the ice thickness. The thickness estimates are measured over spatial scales of approximately 50 km or time scales of 1 month, and the primary time period analyzed is 2000-2012 when the modern mix of observations is available. Good agreement is found between five of the systems, within 0.15 m, while systematic differences of up to 0.5 m are found for three others compared to the five. The trend in annual mean ice thickness over the Arctic Basin is -0.58 ± 0.07 m decade-1 over the period 2000-2012. Applying our method to the period 1975-2012 for the central Arctic Basin where we have sufficient data (the SCICEX box), we find that the annual mean ice thickness has decreased from 3.59 m in 1975 to 1.25 m in 2012, a 65% reduction. This is nearly double the 36% decline reported by an earlier study. These results provide additional direct observational evidence of substantial sea ice losses found in model analyses.

Arctic sea ice thickness loss determined using subsurface, aircraft, and satellite observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lindsay, R.; Schweiger, A.

2014-08-01

Sea ice thickness is a fundamental climate state variable that provides an integrated measure of changes in the high-latitude energy balance. However, observations of ice thickness have been sparse in time and space making the construction of observation-based time series difficult. Moreover, different groups use a variety of methods and processing procedures to measure ice thickness and each observational source likely has different and poorly characterized measurement and sampling biases. Observational sources include upward looking sonars mounted on submarines or moorings, electromagnetic sensors on helicopters or aircraft, and lidar or radar altimeters on airplanes or satellites. Here we use a curve-fitting approach to evaluate the systematic differences between eight different observation systems in the Arctic Basin. The approach determines the large-scale spatial and temporal variability of the ice thickness as well as the mean differences between the observation systems using over 3000 estimates of the ice thickness. The thickness estimates are measured over spatial scales of approximately 50 km or time scales of 1 month and the primary time period analyzed is 2000-2013 when the modern mix of observations is available. Good agreement is found between five of the systems, within 0.15 m, while systematic differences of up to 0.5 m are found for three others compared to the five. The trend in annual mean ice thickness over the Arctic Basin is -0.58 ± 0.07 m decade-1 over the period 2000-2013, while the annual mean ice thickness for the central Arctic Basin alone (the SCICEX Box) has decreased from 3.45 m in 1975 to 1.11 m in 2013, a 68% reduction. This is nearly double the 36% decline reported by an earlier study. These results provide additional direct observational confirmation of substantial sea ice losses found in model analyses.

Global mountain snow and ice loss driven by dust and black carbon radiative forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Painter, T. H.

2014-12-01

Changes in mountain snow and glaciers have been our strongest indicators of the effects of changing climate. Earlier melt of snow and losses of glacier mass have perturbed regional water cycling, regional climate, and ecosystem dynamics, and contributed strongly to sea level rise. Recent studies however have revealed that in some regions, the reduction of albedo by light absorbing impurities in snow and ice such as dust and black carbon can be distinctly more powerful than regional warming at melting snow and ice. In the Rocky Mountains, dust deposition has increased 5 to 7 fold in the last 150 years, leading to ~3 weeks earlier loss of snow cover from forced melt. In absolute terms, in some years dust radiative forcing there can shorten snow cover duration by nearly two months. Remote sensing retrievals are beginning to reveal powerful dust and black carbon radiative forcing in the Hindu Kush through Himalaya. In light of recent ice cores that show pronounced increases in loading of dust and BC during the Anthropocene, these forcings may have contributed far more to glacier retreat than previously thought. For example, we have shown that the paradoxical end of the Little Ice Age in the European Alps beginning around 1850 (when glaciers began to retreat but temperatures continued to decline and precipitation was unchanged) very likely was driven by the massive increases in deposition to snow and ice of black carbon from industrialization in surrounding nations. A more robust understanding of changes in mountain snow and ice during the Anthropocene requires that we move past simplistic treatments (e.g. temperature-index modeling) to energy balance approaches that assess changes in the individual forcings such as the most powerful component for melt - net solar radiation. Remote sensing retrievals from imaging spectrometers and multispectral sensors are giving us more powerful insights into the time-space variation of snow and ice albedo.

Investigation of Controls on Ice Dynamics in Northeast Greenland from Ice-Thickness Change Record Using Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Csatho, B. M.; Larour, E. Y.; Schenk, A. F.; Schlegel, N.; Duncan, K.

2015-12-01

We present a new, complete ice thickness change reconstruction of the NE sector of the Greenland Ice Sheet for 1978-2014, partitioned into changes due to surface processes and ice dynamics. Elevation changes are computed from all available stereoscopic DEMs, and laser altimetry data (ICESat, ATM, LVIS). Surface Mass Balance and firn-compaction estimates are from RACMO2.3. Originating nearly at the divide of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS), the dynamically active North East Ice Stream (NEGIS) is capable of rapidly transmitting ice-marginal forcing far inland. Thus, NEGIS provides a possible mechanism for a rapid drawdown of ice from the ice sheet interior as marginal warming, thinning and retreat continues. Our altimetry record shows accelerating dynamic thinning of Zachariæ Isstrom, initially limited to the deepest part of the fjord near the calving front (1978-2000) and then extending at least 75 km inland. At the same time, changes over the Nioghalvfjerdsfjorden (N79) Glacier are negligible. We also detect localized large dynamic changes at higher elevations on the ice sheet. These thickness changes, often occurring at the onset of fast flow, could indicate rapid variations of basal lubrication due to rerouting of subglacial drainage. We investigate the possible causes of the observed spatiotemporal pattern of ice sheet elevation changes using the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM). This work build on our previous studies examining the sensitivity of ice flow within the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream (NEGIS) to key fields, including ice viscosity, basal drag. We assimilate the new altimetry record into ISSM to improve the reconstruction of basal friction and ice viscosity. Finally, airborne geophysical (gravity, magnetic) and ice-penetrating radar data is examined to identify the potential geologic controls on the ice thickness change pattern. Our study provides the first comprehensive reconstruction of ice thickness changes for the entire NEGIS drainage basin during

Channelized melting drives thinning under Dotson ice shelf, Western Antarctic Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gourmelen, N.; Goldberg, D.; Snow, K.; Henley, S. F.; Bingham, R. G.; Kimura, S.; Hogg, A.; Shepherd, A.; Mouginot, J.; Lenaerts, J.; Ligtenberg, S.; Van De Berg, W. J.

2017-12-01

The majority of meteoric ice that forms in West Antarctica leaves the ice sheet through floating ice shelves, many of which have been thinning substantially over the last 25 years. A significant proportion of ice-shelf thinning has been driven by submarine melting facilitated by increased access of relatively warm (>0.6oC) modified Circumpolar Deep Water to sub-shelf cavities. Ice shelves play a significant role in stabilising the ice sheet from runaway retreat and regulating its contribution to sea level change. Ice-shelf melting has also been implicated in sustaining high primary productivity in Antarctica's coastal seas. However, these processes vary regionally and are not fully understood. Under some ice shelves, concentrated melting leads to the formation of inverted channels. These channels guide buoyant melt-laden outflow, which can lead to localised melting of the sea ice cover. The channels may also potentially lead to heightened crevassing, which in turn affects ice-shelf stability. Meanwhile, numerical studies suggest that buttressing loss is sensitive to the location of ice removal within an ice-shelf. Thus it is important that we observe spatial patterns, as well as magnitudes, of ice-shelf thinning, in order to improve understanding of the ocean drivers of thinning and of their impacts on ice-shelf stability. Here we show from high-resolution altimetry measurements acquired between 2010 to 2016 that Dotson Ice Shelf, West Antarctica, thins in response to basal melting focussed along a single 5 km-wide and 60 km-long channel extending from the ice shelf's grounding zone to its calving front. The coupled effect of geostrophic circulation and ice-shelf topography leads to the observed concentration of basal melting. Analysis of previous datasets suggests that this process has been ongoing for at least the last 25 years. If focused thinning continues at present rates, the channel would melt through within 40-50 years, almost two centuries before it is

Ice cream structure modification by ice-binding proteins.

PubMed

Kaleda, Aleksei; Tsanev, Robert; Klesment, Tiina; Vilu, Raivo; Laos, Katrin

2018-04-25

Ice-binding proteins (IBPs), also known as antifreeze proteins, were added to ice cream to investigate their effect on structure and texture. Ice recrystallization inhibition was assessed in the ice cream mixes using a novel accelerated microscope assay and the ice cream microstructure was studied using an ice crystal dispersion method. It was found that adding recombinantly produced fish type III IBPs at a concentration 3 mg·L -1 made ice cream hard and crystalline with improved shape preservation during melting. Ice creams made with IBPs (both from winter rye, and type III IBP) had aggregates of ice crystals that entrapped pockets of the ice cream mixture in a rigid network. Larger individual ice crystals and no entrapment in control ice creams was observed. Based on these results a model of ice crystals aggregates formation in the presence of IBPs was proposed. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Respective roles of direct GHG radiative forcing and induced Arctic sea ice loss on the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oudar, Thomas; Sanchez-Gomez, Emilia; Chauvin, Fabrice; Cattiaux, Julien; Terray, Laurent; Cassou, Christophe

2017-12-01

The large-scale and synoptic-scale Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation responses to projected late twenty-first century Arctic sea ice decline induced by increasing Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) concentrations are investigated using the CNRM-CM5 coupled model. An original protocol, based on a flux correction technique, allows isolating the respective roles of GHG direct radiative effect and induced Arctic sea ice loss under RCP8.5 scenario. In winter, the surface atmospheric response clearly exhibits opposing effects between GHGs increase and Arctic sea ice loss, leading to no significant pattern in the total response (particularly in the North Atlantic region). An analysis based on Eady growth rate shows that Arctic sea ice loss drives the weakening in the low-level meridional temperature gradient, causing a general decrease of the baroclinicity in the mid and high latitudes, whereas the direct impact of GHGs increase is more located in the mid-to-high troposphere. Changes in the flow waviness, evaluated from sinuosity and blocking frequency metrics, are found to be small relative to inter-annual variability.

Breaking Off of Large Ice Masses From Hanging Glaciers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pralong, A.; Funk, M.

In order to reduce damage to settlements or other installations (roads, railway, etc) and avoid loss of life, a forecast of the final failure time of ice masses is required. At present, the most promising approach for such a prediction is based on the regularity by which certain large ice masses accelerate prior to the instant of collapse. The lim- itation of this forecast lies in short-term irregularities and in the difficulties to obtain sufficiently accurate data. A better physical understanding of the breaking off process is required, in order to improve the forecasting method. Previous analyze has shown that a stepwise crack extension coupling with a viscous flow leads to the observed acceleration function. We propose another approach by considering a local damage evolution law (gener- alized Kachanow's law) coupled with Glen's flow law to simulate the spatial evolu- tion of damage in polycristalline ice, using a finite element computational model. The present study focuses on the transition from a diffuse to a localised damage reparti- tion occurring during the damage evolution. The influence of inhomogeneous initial conditions (inhomogeneity of the mechanical properties of ice, damage inhomogene- ity) and inhomogeneous boundary conditions on the damage repartition are especially investigated.

Accelerated remyelination during inflammatory demyelination prevents axonal loss and improves functional recovery.

PubMed

Mei, Feng; Lehmann-Horn, Klaus; Shen, Yun-An A; Rankin, Kelsey A; Stebbins, Karin J; Lorrain, Daniel S; Pekarek, Kara; A Sagan, Sharon; Xiao, Lan; Teuscher, Cory; von Büdingen, H-Christian; Wess, Jürgen; Lawrence, J Josh; Green, Ari J; Fancy, Stephen Pj; Zamvil, Scott S; Chan, Jonah R

2016-09-27

Demyelination in MS disrupts nerve signals and contributes to axon degeneration. While remyelination promises to restore lost function, it remains unclear whether remyelination will prevent axonal loss. Inflammatory demyelination is accompanied by significant neuronal loss in the experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis (EAE) mouse model and evidence for remyelination in this model is complicated by ongoing inflammation, degeneration and possible remyelination. Demonstrating the functional significance of remyelination necessitates selectively altering the timing of remyelination relative to inflammation and degeneration. We demonstrate accelerated remyelination after EAE induction by direct lineage analysis and hypothesize that newly formed myelin remains stable at the height of inflammation due in part to the absence of MOG expression in immature myelin. Oligodendroglial-specific genetic ablation of the M1 muscarinic receptor, a potent negative regulator of oligodendrocyte differentiation and myelination, results in accelerated remyelination, preventing axonal loss and improving functional recovery. Together our findings demonstrate that accelerated remyelination supports axonal integrity and neuronal function after inflammatory demyelination.

Evaluating Impacts of Recent Arctic Sea Ice Loss on the Northern Hemisphere Winter Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ogawa, Fumiaki; Keenlyside, Noel; Gao, Yongqi; Koenigk, Torben; Yang, Shuting; Suo, Lingling; Wang, Tao; Gastineau, Guillaume; Nakamura, Tetsu; Cheung, Ho Nam; Omrani, Nour-Eddine; Ukita, Jinro; Semenov, Vladimir

2018-04-01

Wide disagreement among individual modeling studies has contributed to a debate on the role of recent sea ice loss in the Arctic amplification of global warming and the Siberian wintertime cooling trend. We perform coordinated experiments with six atmospheric general circulation models forced by the observed and climatological daily sea ice concentration and sea surface temperature. The results indicate that the impact of the recent sea ice decline is rather limited to the high-latitude lower troposphere in winter, and the sea ice changes do not significantly lead to colder winters over Siberia. The observed wintertime Siberian temperature and corresponding circulation trends are reproduced in a small number of ensemble members but not by the multimodel ensemble mean, suggesting that atmospheric internal dynamics could have played a major role in the observed trends.

Downscaled ice-ocean simulations for the Chukchi and Eastern Siberian Seas from an oceanic re-analysis product

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fujisaki-Manome, A.; Wang, J.

2016-12-01

Arctic summer sea ice has been declining at the rate that is much faster than any climate models predict. While the accelerated sea ice melting in the recent few decades could be attributed to several mechanisms such as the Arctic temperature amplification and the ice-albedo feedback, this does not necessarily explain why climate models underestimate the observed rate of summer sea ice loss. Clearly, an improved understanding is needed in what processes could be missed in climate models and could play roles in unprecedented loss of sea ice. This study evaluates contributions of sub-mesoscale processes in the ice edge (i.e. the boundary region between open water and ice covered area), which include eddies, ice bands, and the vertical mixing associated with ice bands, to the melting of sea ice and how they explain the underestimation of sea ice loss in the current state-of-art climate models. The focus area is in the pacific side of the Arctic Ocean. First, several oceanic re-analysis products including NCEP-Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) and Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) are evaluated in comparison with the in-situ observations from the Russian-American Long-term Census of the Arctic (RUSALCA) project. Second, the downscaled ice-ocean simulations are conducted for the Chukchi and East Siberian Seas with initial and open boundary conditions provided from a selected oceanic re-analysis product.

The Rapidly Diminishing Arctic ice Cover and its Potential Impact on Navy Operational Considerations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muench, R. D.; Conlon, D.; Lamb, D.

2001-12-01

Observations made from U.S. Navy Fleet submarines during the 1990s have revealed a dramatic decrease in thickness, when compared to historical values, of the central Arctic Ocean pack ice cover. Estimates of this decrease have been as high as 40%. Remote sensing observations have shown a coincident decrease in the areal extent of the pack. The areal decrease has been especially apparent during winter. The overall loss of ice appears to have accelerated over the past decade, raising the possibility that the Northwest Passage and the Northern Sea Route may become seasonally navigable on a regular basis in the coming decade. The ice loss has been most evident in the peripheral seas and continental shelf areas. For example, during winter 2000-2001 the Bering Sea was effectively ice-free, with strong and immediate impacts on the surrounding indigenous populations. Lessening of the peripheral pack ice cover will presumably, lead to accelerated development of the resource-rich regions that surround the deep, central Arctic Ocean basin. This raises potential issues with respect to national security and commercial interests, and has implicit strategic concerns for the Navy. The timeline for a significantly navigable Arctic may extend decades into the future; however, operational requirements must be identified in the nearer term to ensure that the necessary capabilities exist when future Arctic missions do present themselves. A first step is to improve the understanding of the coupled atmosphere/ice/ocean system. Current environmental measurement and prediction, including Arctic weather and ice prediction, shallow water acoustic performance prediction, dynamic ocean environmental changes and data to support navigation is inadequate to support sustained naval operations in the Arctic. A new focus on data collection is required in order to measure, map, monitor and model Arctic weather, ice and oceanographic conditions.

SEA-LEVEL RISE. Sea-level rise due to polar ice-sheet mass loss during past warm periods.

PubMed

Dutton, A; Carlson, A E; Long, A J; Milne, G A; Clark, P U; DeConto, R; Horton, B P; Rahmstorf, S; Raymo, M E

2015-07-10

Interdisciplinary studies of geologic archives have ushered in a new era of deciphering magnitudes, rates, and sources of sea-level rise from polar ice-sheet loss during past warm periods. Accounting for glacial isostatic processes helps to reconcile spatial variability in peak sea level during marine isotope stages 5e and 11, when the global mean reached 6 to 9 meters and 6 to 13 meters higher than present, respectively. Dynamic topography introduces large uncertainties on longer time scales, precluding robust sea-level estimates for intervals such as the Pliocene. Present climate is warming to a level associated with significant polar ice-sheet loss in the past. Here, we outline advances and challenges involved in constraining ice-sheet sensitivity to climate change with use of paleo-sea level records. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

The Impact of Sea Ice Loss on Wave Dynamics and Coastal Erosion Along the Arctic Coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Overeem, I.; Anderson, R. S.; Wobus, C. W.; Matell, N.; Urban, F. E.; Clow, G. D.; Stanton, T. P.

2010-12-01

The extent of Arctic sea ice has been shrinking rapidly over the past few decades, and attendant acceleration of erosion is now occurring along the Arctic coast. This both brings coastal infrastructure into harm’s way and promotes a complex response of the adjacent landscape to global change. We quantify the effects of declining sea ice extent on coastal erosion rates along a 75-km stretch of coastal permafrost bluffs adjacent to the Beaufort Sea, Alaska, where present-day erosion rates are among the highest in the world at ~14 m yr-1. Our own observations reinforce those of others, and suggest that the rate-limiting process is thermal erosion at the base of the several-meter tall bluffs. Here we focus on the interaction between the nearshore sea ice concentration, the location of the sea ice margin, and the fetch-limited, shallow water wave field, since these parameters ultimately control both sea surface temperatures and the height to which these waters can bathe the frozen bluffs. Thirty years of daily or bi-daily passive microwave data from Nimbus-7 SMMR and DMSP SSM/I satellites reveal that the nearshore open water season lengthened ~54 days over 1979-2009. The open water season, centered in August, expands more rapidly into the fall (September and October~0.92 day yr-1) than into the early summer (July~0.71 days yr-1). Average fetch, defined for our purposes as the distance from the sea ice margin to the coast over which the wind is blowing, increased by a factor 1.7 over the same time-span. Given these time series, we modeled daily nearshore wave heights during the open water season for each year, which we integrated to provide a quantitative metric for the annual exposure of the coastal bluffs to thermal erosion. This “annual wave exposure” increased by 250% during 1979-2009. In the same interval, coastal erosion rates reconstructed from satellite and aerial photo records show less acceleration. We attribute this to a disproportionate extension of the

Increased West Antarctic and unchanged East Antarctic ice discharge over the last 7 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gardner, Alex S.; Moholdt, Geir; Scambos, Ted; Fahnstock, Mark; Ligtenberg, Stefan; van den Broeke, Michiel; Nilsson, Johan

2018-02-01

Ice discharge from large ice sheets plays a direct role in determining rates of sea-level rise. We map present-day Antarctic-wide surface velocities using Landsat 7 and 8 imagery spanning 2013-2015 and compare to earlier estimates derived from synthetic aperture radar, revealing heterogeneous changes in ice flow since ˜ 2008. The new mapping provides complete coastal and inland coverage of ice velocity north of 82.4° S with a mean error of < 10 m yr-1, resulting from multiple overlapping image pairs acquired during the daylight period. Using an optimized flux gate, ice discharge from Antarctica is 1929 ± 40 Gigatons per year (Gt yr-1) in 2015, an increase of 36 ± 15 Gt yr-1 from the time of the radar mapping. Flow accelerations across the grounding lines of West Antarctica's Amundsen Sea Embayment, Getz Ice Shelf and Marguerite Bay on the western Antarctic Peninsula, account for 88 % of this increase. In contrast, glaciers draining the East Antarctic Ice Sheet have been remarkably constant over the period of observation. Including modeled rates of snow accumulation and basal melt, the Antarctic ice sheet lost ice at an average rate of 183 ± 94 Gt yr-1 between 2008 and 2015. The modest increase in ice discharge over the past 7 years is contrasted by high rates of ice sheet mass loss and distinct spatial patters of elevation lowering. The West Antarctic Ice Sheet is experiencing high rates of mass loss and displays distinct patterns of elevation lowering that point to a dynamic imbalance. We find modest increase in ice discharge over the past 7 years, which suggests that the recent pattern of mass loss in Antarctica is part of a longer-term phase of enhanced glacier flow initiated in the decades leading up to the first continent-wide radar mapping of ice flow.

Exploring the effect of East Antarctic ice mass loss on GIA-induced horizontal bedrock motions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Konfal, S. A.; Whitehouse, P. L.; Hermans, T.; van der Wal, W.; Wilson, T. J.; Bevis, M. G.; Kendrick, E. C.; Dalziel, I.; Smalley, R., Jr.

2017-12-01

Ice history inputs used in Antarctic models of GIA include major centers of ice mass loss in West Antarctica. In the Transantarctic Mountains (TAM) region spanning the boundary between East and West Antarctica, horizontal crustal motions derived from GPS observations from the Antarctic Network (ANET) component of the Polar Earth Observing Network (POLENET) are towards these West Antarctic ice mass centers, opposite to the pattern of radial crustal motion expected in an unloading scenario. We investigate alternative ice history and earth structure inputs to GIA models in an attempt to reproduce observed crustal motions in the region. The W12 ice history model is altered to create scenarios including ice unloading in the Wilkes Subglacial Basin based on available glaciological records. These altered ice history models, along with the unmodified W12 ice history model, are coupled with 60 radially varying (1D) earth model combinations, including approximations of optimal earth profiles identified in published GIA models. The resulting model-predicted motions utilizing both the modified and unmodified ice history models fit ANET GPS-derived crustal motions in the northern TAM region for a suite of earth model combinations. Further south, where the influence of simulated Wilkes unloading is weakest and West Antarctic unloading is strongest, observed and predicted motions do not agree. The influence of simulated Wilkes ice unloading coupled with laterally heterogeneous earth models is also investigated. The resulting model-predicted motions do not differ significantly between the original W12 and W12 with simulated Wilkes unloading ice histories.

connecting the dots between Greenland ice sheet surface melting and ice flow dynamics (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Box, J. E.; Colgan, W. T.; Fettweis, X.; Phillips, T. P.; Stober, M.

2013-12-01

This presentation is of a 'unified theory' in glaciology that first identifies surface albedo as a key factor explaining total ice sheet mass balance and then surveys a mechanistic self-reinforcing interaction between melt water and ice flow dynamics. The theory is applied in a near-real time total Greenland mass balance retrieval based on surface albedo, a powerful integrator of the competing effects of accumulation and ablation. New snowfall reduces sunlight absorption and increases meltwater retention. Melting amplifies absorbed sunlight through thermal metamorphism and bare ice expansion in space and time. By ';following the melt'; we reveal mechanisms linking existing science into a unified theory. Increasing meltwater softens the ice sheet in three ways: 1.) sensible heating given the water temperature exceeds that of the ice sheet interior; 2.) Some infiltrating water refreezes, transferring latent heat to the ice; 3.) Friction from water turbulence heats the ice. It has been shown that for a point on the ice sheet, basal lubrication increases ice flow speed to a time when an efficient sub-glacial drainage network develops that reduces this effect. Yet, with an increasing melt duration the point where the ice sheet glides on a wet bed increases inland to a larger area. This effect draws down the ice surface elevation, contributing to the ';elevation feedback'. In a perpetual warming scenario, the elevation feedback ultimately leads to ice sheet loss reversible only through much slower ice sheet growth in an ice age environment. As the inland ice sheet accelerates, the horizontal extension pulls cracks and crevasses open, trapping more sunlight, amplifying the effect of melt accelerated ice. As the bare ice area increases, the direct sun-exposed crevassed and infiltration area increases further allowing the ice warming process to occur more broadly. Considering hydrofracture [a.k.a. hydrofracking]; surface meltwater fills cracks, attacking the ice integrity

Improving Estimates of Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Mass Balance with Satellite Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Briggs, K.

2016-12-01

Mass losses from the Greenland Ice Sheet have been accelerating over recent years (e.g. McMillan et al., 2016; Velicogna et al., 2014). This acceleration has predominantly been linked to increasing rates of negative surface mass balance, and in particular, increasing ice surface melt rates (e.g. McMillan et al., 2016; Velicogna et al., 2014). At the ice sheet scale, SMB is assessed using SMB model outputs, which in addition to enabling understanding of the origin of mass balance signals, are required as ancillary data in mass balance assessments from altimetry and the mass budget method. Due to the importance of SMB for mass balance over Greenland and the sensitivity of mass balance assessments to SMB model outputs, high accuracy of these models is crucial. A critical limiting factor in SMB modeling is however, a lack of in-situ data that is required for model constraint and evaluation. Such data is limited in time and space due to inherent logistical and financial constraints. Remote sensing datasets, being spatially extensive and relatively densely sampled in both space and time, do not suffer such constraints. Here, we show satellite observations of Greenland SMB. McMillan, M., Leeson, A., Shepherd, A., Briggs, K., Armitage, T. W.K., Hogg, A., Kuipers Munneke, P., van den Broeke, M., Noël, B., van de Berg, W., Ligtenberg, S., Horwath, M., Groh, A. , Muir, A. and Gilbert, L. 2016. A high resolution record of Greenland Mass Balance. Geophysical Research Letters. 43, doi:10.1002/2016GL069666 Velicogna, I., Sutterley, T. C. and van den Broeke, M. R. 2014. Regional acceleration in ice mass loss from Greenland and Antarctica using GRACE time-variable gravity data. Geophysical Research Letters. 41, 8130-8137, doi:10.1002/2014GL061052

Preliminary Flight Deck Observations During Flight in High Ice Water Content Conditions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ratvasky, Thomas; Duchanoy, Dominque; Bourdinot, Jean-Francois; Harrah, Steven; Strapp, Walter; Schwarzenboeck, Alfons; Dezitter, Fabien; Grandin, Alice

2015-01-01

In 2006, Mason et al. identified common observations that occurred in engine power-loss events attributed to flight in high concentrations of ice crystals. Observations included light to moderate turbulence, precipitation on the windscreen (often reported as rain), aircraft total temperature anomalies, lack of significant airframe icing, and no flight radar echoes at the location and altitude of the engine event. Since 2006, Mason et al. and others have collected information from pilots who experienced engine power-loss events via interviews and questionnaires to substantiate earlier observations and support event analyses. In 2011, Mason and Grzych reported that vertical acceleration data showed increases in turbulence prior to engine events, although the turbulence was usually light to moderate and not unique to high ice water content (HIWC) clouds. Mason concluded that the observation of rain on the windscreen was due to melting of ice high concentrations of ice crystals on the windscreen, coalescing into drops. Mason also reported that these pilot observations of rain on the windscreen were varied. Many pilots indicated no rain was observed, while others observed moderate rain with unique impact sounds. Mason concluded that the variation in the reports may be due to variation in the ice concentration, particle size, and temperature.

Changes in ice dynamics along the northern Antarctic Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seehaus, Thorsten; Marinsek, Sebastian; Cook, Alison; Van Wessem, Jan-Melchior; Braun, Matthias

2017-04-01

The climatic conditions along the Antarctic Peninsula have undergone considerable changes during the last 50 years. A period of pronounced air temperature rise, increasing ocean temperatures as well as changes in the precipitation pattern have been reported by various authors. Consequently, the glacial systems showed changes including widespread retreat, surface lowering as well as variations in flow speeds. During the last decades numerous ice shelves along the Antarctic Peninsula retreated, started to break-up or disintegrated completely. The loss of the buttressing effect caused tributary glaciers to accelerate with increasing ice discharge along the Antarctic Peninsula. Quantification of the mass changes is still subject to considerable errors although numbers derived from the different methods are converging. The aim is to study the reaction of glaciers at the northern Antarctic Peninsula to the changing climatic conditions and the readjustments of tributary glaciers to ice shelf disintegration, as well as to better quantify the ice mass loss and its temporal changes. We analysed time series of various satellite sensors (ERS-1/2 SAR, ENVISAT ASAR, RADARSAT-1, ALOS PALSAR, TerraSAR-X/TanDEM-X, ASTER, Landsat) to detect changes in ice dynamics of 74 glacier basins along the northern Antarctic Peninsula (<65°). Intensity feature tracking techniques were applied on data stacks from different SAR satellites over the last 20 years to infer temporal trends in glacier surface velocities. In combination with ice thickness reconstructions and modeled climatic mass balance fields regional imbalances were calculated. Variations in ice front position were mapped based on optical and SAR satellite data sets. Along the west coast of the northern Antarctic Peninsula an increase in flow speeds by 40% between 1992 and 2014 was observed, whereas glaciers on the east side (north of former Prince-Gustav Ice Shelf) showed a strong deceleration. Nearly all former ice shelf

Spatial and Temporal Means and Variability of Arctic Sea Ice Climate Indicators from Satellite Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, G.; Meier, W.; Bliss, A. C.; Steele, M.; Dickinson, S.

2017-12-01

Arctic sea ice has been undergoing rapid and accelerated loss since satellite-based measurements became available in late 1970s, especially the summer ice coverage. For the Arctic as a whole, the long-term trend for the annual sea ice extent (SIE) minimum is about -13.5±2.93 % per decade change relative to the 1979-2015 climate average, while the trends of the annual SIE minimum for the local regions can range from 0 to up to -42 % per decade. This presentation aims to examine and baseline spatial and temporal means and variability of Arctic sea ice climate indicators, such as the annual SIE minimum and maximum, snow/ice melt onset, etc., from a consistent, inter-calibrated, long-term time series of remote sensing sea ice data for understanding regional vulnerability and monitoring ice state for climate adaptation and risk mitigation.

Greenhouse gas mitigation can reduce sea-ice loss and increase polar bear persistence

Treesearch

Steven C. Amstrup; Eric T. DeWeaver; David C. Douglas; Bruce G. Marcot; George M. Durner; Cecilia M. Bitz; David A. Bailey

2010-01-01

On the basis of projected losses of their essential sea-ice habitats, a United States Geological Survey research team concluded in 2007 that two-thirds of the world's polar bears (Ursus maritimus) could disappear by mid-century if business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions continue. That projection, however, did not consider the possible...

Extensive Liquid Meltwater Storage in Firn Within the Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Forster, Richard R.; Box, Jason E.; vandenBroeke, Michael R.; Miege, Clement; Burgess, Evan W.; vanAngelen, Jan H.; Lenaerts, Jan T. M.; Koenig, Lora S.; Paden, John; Lewis, Cameron;

Simulating ice thickness and velocity evolution of Upernavik Isstrøm 1849-2012 by forcing prescribed terminus positions in ISSM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haubner, Konstanze; Box, Jason E.; Schlegel, Nicole J.; Larour, Eric Y.; Morlighem, Mathieu; Solgaard, Anne M.; Kjeldsen, Kristian K.; Larsen, Signe H.; Rignot, Eric; Dupont, Todd K.; Kjær, Kurt H.

2018-04-01

Tidewater glacier velocity and mass balance are known to be highly responsive to terminus position change. Yet it remains challenging for ice flow models to reproduce observed ice margin changes. Here, using the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM; Larour et al. 2012), we simulate the ice velocity and thickness changes of Upernavik Isstrøm (north-western Greenland) by prescribing a collection of 27 observed terminus positions spanning 164 years (1849-2012). The simulation shows increased ice velocity during the 1930s, the late 1970s and between 1995 and 2012 when terminus retreat was observed along with negative surface mass balance anomalies. Three distinct mass balance states are evident in the reconstruction: (1849-1932) with near zero mass balance, (1932-1992) with ice mass loss dominated by ice dynamical flow, and (1998-2012), when increased retreat and negative surface mass balance anomalies led to mass loss that was twice that of any earlier period. Over the multi-decadal simulation, mass loss was dominated by thinning and acceleration responsible for 70 % of the total mass loss induced by prescribed change in terminus position. The remaining 30 % of the total ice mass loss resulted directly from prescribed terminus retreat and decreasing surface mass balance. Although the method can not explain the cause of glacier retreat, it enables the reconstruction of ice flow and geometry during 1849-2012. Given annual or seasonal observed terminus front positions, this method could be a useful tool for evaluating simulations investigating the effect of calving laws.

Mass loss of the Greenland peripheral glaciers and ice caps from satellite altimetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wouters, Bert; Noël, Brice; Moholdt, Geir; Ligtenberg, Stefan; van den Broeke, Michiel

2017-04-01

At its rapidly warming margins, the Greenland Ice Sheet is surrounded by (semi-)detached glaciers and ice caps (GIC). Although they cover only roughly 5% of the total glaciated area in the region, they are estimated to account for 15-20% of the total sea level rise contribution of Greenland. The spatial and temporal evolution of the mass changes of the peripheral GICs, however, remains poorly constrained. In this presentation, we use satellite altimetry from ICESat and Cryosat-2 combined with a high-resolution regional climate model to derive a 14 year time series (2003-2016) of regional elevation and mass changes. The total mass loss has been relatively constant during this period, but regionally, the GICs show marked temporal variations. Whereas thinning was concentrated along the eastern margin during 2003-2009, western GICs became the prime sea level rise contributors in recent years. Mass loss in the northern region has been steadily increasing throughout the record, due to a strong atmospheric warning and a deterioration of the capacity of the firn layer to buffer the resulting melt water.

Early 21st-Century Mass loss of the North-Atlantic Glaciers and Ice Caps (Arne Richter Award for Outstanding Young Scientists Lecture)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wouters, Bert; Ligtenberg, Stefan; Moholdt, Geir; Gardner, Alex S.; Noel, Brice; Kuipers Munneke, Peter; van den Broeke, Michiel; Bamber, Jonathan L.

2016-04-01

Historically, ice loss from mountain glaciers and ice caps has been one of the largest contributors to sea level rise over the last century. Of particular interest are the glaciers and ice caps in the North-Atlantic region of the Arctic. Despite the cold climate in this area, considerable melting and runoff occurs in summer. A small increase in temperature will have an immediate effect on these processes, so that a large change in the Arctic ice volume can be expected in response to the anticipated climate change in the coming century. Unfortunately, direct observations of glaciers are sparse and are biased toward glaciers systems in accessible, mostly maritime, climate conditions. Remote sensing is therefore essential to monitor the state of the the North-Atlantic glaciers and ice caps. In this presentation, we will discuss the progress that has been made in estimating the ice mass balance of these regions, with a particular focus on measurements made by ESA's Cryosat-2 radar altimeter mission (2010-present). Compared to earlier altimeter mission, Cryosat-2 provides unprecedented coverage of the cryosphere, with a resolution down to 1 km or better and sampling at monthly intervals. Combining the Cryosat-2 measurements with the laser altimetry data from ICESat (2003-2009) gives us a 12 yr time series of glacial mass loss in the North Atlantic. We find excellent agreement between the altimetry measurements and independent observations by the GRACE mission, which directly 'weighs' the ice caps, albeit at a much lower resolution. Mass loss in the region has increased from 120 Gigatonnes per year in 2003-2009 to roughly 140 Gt/yr in 2010-2014, with an important contribution from Greenland's peripheral glaciers and ice caps. Importantly, the mass loss is not stationary, but shows large regional interannual variability, with mass loss shifting between eastern and western regions from year to year. Comparison with regional climate models shows that these shifts can be

Micromechanics of ice friction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sammonds, P. R.; Bailey, E.; Lishman, B.; Scourfield, S.

2015-12-01

Frictional mechanics are controlled by the ice micro-structure - surface asperities and flaws - but also the ice fabric and permeability network structure of the contacting blocks. Ice properties are dependent upon the temperature of the bulk ice, on the normal stress and on the sliding velocity and acceleration. This means the shear stress required for sliding is likewise dependent on sliding velocity, acceleration, and temperature. We aim to describe the micro-physics of the contacting surface. We review micro-mechanical models of friction: the elastic and ductile deformation of asperities under normal loads and their shear failure by ductile flow, brittle fracture, or melting and hydrodynamic lubrication. Combinations of these give a total of six rheological models of friction. We present experimental results in ice mechanics and physics from laboratory experiments to understand the mechanical models. We then examine the scaling relations of the slip of ice, to examine how the micro-mechanics of ice friction can be captured simple reduced-parameter models, describing the mechanical state and slip rate of the floes. We aim to capture key elements that they may be incorporated into mid and ocean-basin scale modelling.

Changes in ice dynamics and mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet.

PubMed

Rignot, Eric

2006-07-15

The concept that the Antarctic ice sheet changes with eternal slowness has been challenged by recent observations from satellites. Pronounced regional warming in the Antarctic Peninsula triggered ice shelf collapse, which led to a 10-fold increase in glacier flow and rapid ice sheet retreat. This chain of events illustrated the vulnerability of ice shelves to climate warming and their buffering role on the mass balance of Antarctica. In West Antarctica, the Pine Island Bay sector is draining far more ice into the ocean than is stored upstream from snow accumulation. This sector could raise sea level by 1m and trigger widespread retreat of ice in West Antarctica. Pine Island Glacier accelerated 38% since 1975, and most of the speed up took place over the last decade. Its neighbour Thwaites Glacier is widening up and may double its width when its weakened eastern ice shelf breaks up. Widespread acceleration in this sector may be caused by glacier ungrounding from ice shelf melting by an ocean that has recently warmed by 0.3 degrees C. In contrast, glaciers buffered from oceanic change by large ice shelves have only small contributions to sea level. In East Antarctica, many glaciers are close to a state of mass balance, but sectors grounded well below sea level, such as Cook Ice Shelf, Ninnis/Mertz, Frost and Totten glaciers, are thinning and losing mass. Hence, East Antarctica is not immune to changes.

False alarms: How early warning signals falsely predict abrupt sea ice loss

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wagner, Till J. W.; Eisenman, Ian

2016-04-01

Uncovering universal early warning signals for critical transitions has become a coveted goal in diverse scientific disciplines, ranging from climate science to financial mathematics. There has been a flurry of recent research proposing such signals, with increasing autocorrelation and increasing variance being among the most widely discussed candidates. A number of studies have suggested that increasing autocorrelation alone may suffice to signal an impending transition, although some others have questioned this. Here we consider variance and autocorrelation in the context of sea ice loss in an idealized model of the global climate system. The model features no bifurcation, nor increased rate of retreat, as the ice disappears. Nonetheless, the autocorrelation of summer sea ice area is found to increase in a global warming scenario. The variance, by contrast, decreases. A simple physical mechanism is proposed to explain the occurrence of increasing autocorrelation but not variance when there is no approaching bifurcation. Additionally, a similar mechanism is shown to allow an increase in both indicators with no physically attainable bifurcation. This implies that relying on autocorrelation and variance as early warning signals can raise false alarms in the climate system, warning of "tipping points" that are not actually there.

Early Warning Signals for Abrupt Change Raise False Alarm During Sea Ice Loss

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wagner, T. J. W.; Eisenman, I.

2015-12-01

Uncovering universal early warning signals for critical transitions has become a coveted goal in diverse scientific disciplines, ranging from climate science to financial mathematics. There has been a flurry of recent research proposing such signals, with increasing autocorrelation and increasing variance being among the most widely discussed candidates. A number of studies have suggested that increasing autocorrelation alone may suffice to signal an impending transition, although some others have questioned this. Here, we consider variance and autocorrelation in the context of sea ice loss in an idealized model of the global climate system. The model features no bifurcation, nor increased rate of retreat, as the ice disappears. Nonetheless, the autocorrelation of summer sea ice area is found to increase with diminishing sea ice cover in a global warming scenario. The variance, by contrast, decreases. A simple physical mechanism is proposed to explain the occurrence of increasing autocorrelation but not variance in the model when there is no approaching bifurcation. Additionally, a similar mechanism is shown to allow an increase in both indicators with no physically attainable bifurcation. This implies that relying on autocorrelation and variance as early warning signals can raise false alarms in the climate system, warning of "tipping points" that are not actually there.

Acquisition of Ice Thickness and Ice Surface Characteristics in the Seasonal Ice Zone by CULPIS-X during the US Coast Guard’s Arctic Domain Awareness Program

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-30

OBJECTIVES • What is the volume of sea ice in the Beaufort Sea Seasonal Ice Zone (SIZ) and how does this evolve during summer as the ice edge...retreats? Recent observations suggest that the remaining ice in the Beaufort Sea is younger and thinner in recent years in part because even the oldest...surrounding ice . Recent analyses have indicated that ponds on thinner ice are often darker, accelerating the ice - albedo feedback over thin ice in summer

Antarctic Mass Loss from GRACE from Space- and Time-Resolved Modeling with Slepian Functions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simons, F. J.; Harig, C.

2013-12-01

The melting of polar ice sheets is a major contributor to global sea-level rise. Antarctica is of particular interest since most of the mass loss has occurred in West Antarctica, however updated glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) models and recent mass gains in East Antarctica have reduced the continent-wide integrated decadal trend of mass loss. Here we present a spatially and temporally resolved estimation of the Antarctic ice mass change using Slepian localization functions. With a Slepian basis specifically for Antarctica, the basis functions maximize their energy on the continent and we can project the geopotential fields into a sparse set of orthogonal coefficients. By fitting polynomial functions to the limited basis coefficients we maximize signal-to-noise levels and need not perform smoothing or destriping filters common to other approaches. In addition we determine an empirical noise covariance matrix from the GRACE data to estimate the uncertainty of mass estimation. When applied to large ice sheets, as in our own recent Greenland work, this technique is able to resolve both the overall continental integrated mass trend, as well as the spatial distribution of the mass changes over time. Using CSR-RL05 GRACE data between Jan. 2003 and Jan 2013, we estimate the regional accelerations in mass change for several sub-regions and examine how the spatial pattern of mass has changed. The Amundsen Sea coast of West Antarctica has experienced a large acceleration in mass loss (-26 Gt/yr^2). While mass loss is concentrated near Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, it has also increased along the coast further towards the Ross ice shelf.

Acceleration and loss of relativistic electrons during small geomagnetic storms.

PubMed

Anderson, B R; Millan, R M; Reeves, G D; Friedel, R H W

2015-12-16

Past studies of radiation belt relativistic electrons have favored active storm time periods, while the effects of small geomagnetic storms ( D s t  > -50 nT) have not been statistically characterized. In this timely study, given the current weak solar cycle, we identify 342 small storms from 1989 through 2000 and quantify the corresponding change in relativistic electron flux at geosynchronous orbit. Surprisingly, small storms can be equally as effective as large storms at enhancing and depleting fluxes. Slight differences exist, as small storms are 10% less likely to result in flux enhancement and 10% more likely to result in flux depletion than large storms. Nevertheless, it is clear that neither acceleration nor loss mechanisms scale with storm drivers as would be expected. Small geomagnetic storms play a significant role in radiation belt relativistic electron dynamics and provide opportunities to gain new insights into the complex balance of acceleration and loss processes.

Acceleration and loss of relativistic electrons during small geomagnetic storms

DOE PAGES

Anderson, B. R.; Millan, R. M.; Reeves, G. D.; ...

2015-12-02

We report that past studies of radiation belt relativistic electrons have favored active storm time periods, while the effects of small geomagnetic storms (Dst >₋50 nT) have not been statistically characterized. In this timely study, given the current weak solar cycle, we identify 342 small storms from 1989 through 2000 and quantify the corresponding change in relativistic electron flux at geosynchronous orbit. Surprisingly, small storms can be equally as effective as large storms at enhancing and depleting fluxes. Slight differences exist, as small storms are 10% less likely to result in flux enhancement and 10% more likely to result inmore » flux depletion than large storms. Nevertheless, it is clear that neither acceleration nor loss mechanisms scale with storm drivers as would be expected. Small geomagnetic storms play a significant role in radiation belt relativistic electron dynamics and provide opportunities to gain new insights into the complex balance of acceleration and loss processes.« less

Acquisition of Ice Thickness and Ice Surface Characteristics in the Seasonal Ice Zone by CULPIS-X During the US Coast Guard’s Arctic Domain Awareness Program

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-09-30

What is the volume of sea ice in the Beaufort Sea SIZ and how does this evolve during summer as the ice edge retreats? Recent observations...suggest that the remaining ice in the Beaufort Sea is younger and thinner in recent years in part because even the oldest ice advected into the region does...indicated that ponds on thinner ice are often darker, accelerating the ice - albedo feedback over thin ice in summer. During winter, leads and very

Programme for Monitoring of the Greenland Ice Sheet - Ice Surface Velocities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andersen, S. B.; Ahlstrom, A. P.; Boncori, J. M.; Dall, J.

2011-12-01

In 2007, the Danish Ministry of Climate and Energy launched the Programme for Monitoring of the Greenland Ice Sheet (PROMICE) as an ongoing effort to assess changes in the mass budget of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Iceberg calving from the outlet glaciers of the Greenland Ice Sheet, often termed the ice-dynamic mass loss, is responsible for an important part of the mass loss during the last decade. To quantify this part of the mass loss, we combine airborne surveys yielding ice-sheet thickness along the entire margin, with surface velocities derived from satellite synthetic-aperture radar (SAR). In order to derive ice sheet surface velocities from SAR a processing chain has been developed for GEUS by DTU Space based on a commercial software package distributed by GAMMA Remote Sensing. The processor, named SUSIE (Scripts and Utilities for SAR Ice-motion Estimation), can use both differential SAR interferometry and offset-tracking techniques to measure the horizontal velocity components, providing also an estimate of the corresponding measurement error. So far surface velocities have been derived for a number of sites including Nioghalvfjerdsfjord Glacier, the Kangerlussuaq region, the Nuuk region, Helheim Glacier and Daugaard-Jensen Glacier using data from ERS-1/ERS-2, ENVISAT ASAR and ALOS Palsar. Here we will present these first results.

Ice-shelf collapse from subsurface warming as a trigger for Heinrich events

PubMed Central

Marcott, Shaun A.; Clark, Peter U.; Padman, Laurie; Klinkhammer, Gary P.; Springer, Scott R.; Liu, Zhengyu; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.; Carlson, Anders E.; Ungerer, Andy; Padman, June; He, Feng; Cheng, Jun; Schmittner, Andreas

2011-01-01

Episodic iceberg-discharge events from the Hudson Strait Ice Stream (HSIS) of the Laurentide Ice Sheet, referred to as Heinrich events, are commonly attributed to internal ice-sheet instabilities, but their systematic occurrence at the culmination of a large reduction in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) indicates a climate control. We report Mg/Ca data on benthic foraminifera from an intermediate-depth site in the northwest Atlantic and results from a climate-model simulation that reveal basin-wide subsurface warming at the same time as large reductions in the AMOC, with temperature increasing by approximately 2 °C over a 1–2 kyr interval prior to a Heinrich event. In simulations with an ocean model coupled to a thermodynamically active ice shelf, the increase in subsurface temperature increases basal melt rate under an ice shelf fronting the HSIS by a factor of approximately 6. By analogy with recent observations in Antarctica, the resulting ice-shelf loss and attendant HSIS acceleration would produce a Heinrich event. PMID:21808034

Solitary Waves of Ice Loss Detected in Greenland Crustal Motion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adhikari, S.; Ivins, E. R.; Larour, E. Y.

2017-12-01

The annual cycle and secular trend of Greenland mass loading are well recorded in measurements of solid Earth deformation. While bedrock vertical displacements are in phase with loading as inferred from space observations, horizontal motions have received almost no attention. The horizontal bedrock displacements can potentially track the spatiotemporal detail of mass changes with great fidelity. Our analysis of Greenland crustal motion data reveals that a significant excitation of horizontal amplitudes occurs during the intense Greenland melting. A suite of space geodetic observations and climate reanalysis data cannot explain these large horizontal displacements. We discover that solitary seasonal waves of substantial mass transport traveled through Rink Glacier in 2010 and 2012. We deduce that intense summer melting enhanced either basal lubrication or shear softening, or both, causing the glacier to thin dynamically. The newly routed upstream sublglacial water was likely to be both retarded and inefficient, thus providing a causal mechanism for the prolonged ice transport to continue well into the winter months. As the climate continues to produce increasingly warmer spring and summer, amplified seasonal waves of mass transport may become ever more present in years of future observations. Increased frequency of amplified seasonal mass transport may ultimately strengthen the Greenland's dynamic ice mass loss, a component of the balance that will have important ramifications for sea level rise. This animation shows a solitary wave passing through Rink Glacier, Greenland, in 2012, recorded by the motion of a GPS station (circle with arrow). Darker blue colors within the flow indicate mass loss, red colors show mass gain. The star marks the center of the wave. Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech

How Will Sea Ice Loss Affect the Greenland Ice Sheet? On the Puzzling Features of Greenland Ice-Core Isotopic Composition

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pausata, Francesco S. R.; Legrande, Allegra N.; Roberts, William H. G.

2016-01-01

The modern cryosphere, Earth's frozen water regime, is in fast transition. Greenland ice cores show how fast theses changes can be, presenting evidence of up to 15 C warming events over timescales of less than a decade. These events, called Dansgaard/Oeschger (D/O) events, are believed to be associated with rapid changes in Arctic sea ice, although the underlying mechanisms are still unclear. The modern demise of Arctic sea ice may, in turn, instigate abrupt changes on the Greenland Ice Sheet. The Arctic Sea Ice and Greenland Ice Sheet Sensitivity (Ice2Ice Chttps://ice2ice.b.uib.noD) initiative, sponsored by the European Research Council, seeks to quantify these past rapid changes to improve our understanding of what the future may hold for the Arctic. Twenty scientists gathered in Copenhagen as part of this initiative to discuss the most recent observational, technological, and model developments toward quantifying the mechanisms behind past climate changes in Greenland. Much of the discussion focused on the causes behind the changes in stable water isotopes recorded in ice cores. The participants discussed sources of variability for stable water isotopes and framed ways that new studies could improve understanding of modern climate. The participants also discussed how climate models could provide insights into the relative roles of local and nonlocal processes in affecting stable water isotopes within the Greenland Ice Sheet. Presentations of modeling results showed how a change in the source or seasonality of precipitation could occur not only between glacial and modern climates but also between abrupt events. Recent fieldwork campaigns illustrate an important role of stable isotopes in atmospheric vapor and diffusion in the final stable isotope signal in ice. Further, indications from recent fieldwork campaigns illustrate an important role of stable isotopes in atmospheric vapor and diffusion in the final stable isotope signal in ice. This feature complicates

Storage and release of organic carbon from glaciers and ice sheets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hood, Eran; Battin, Tom J.; Fellman, Jason; O'Neel, Shad; Spencer, Robert G. M.

2015-02-01

Polar ice sheets and mountain glaciers, which cover roughly 11% of the Earth's land surface, store organic carbon from local and distant sources and then release it to downstream environments. Climate-driven changes to glacier runoff are expected to be larger than climate impacts on other components of the hydrological cycle, and may represent an important flux of organic carbon. A compilation of published data on dissolved organic carbon from glaciers across five continents reveals that mountain and polar glaciers represent a quantitatively important store of organic carbon. The Antarctic Ice Sheet is the repository of most of the roughly 6 petagrams (Pg) of organic carbon stored in glacier ice, but the annual release of glacier organic carbon is dominated by mountain glaciers in the case of dissolved organic carbon and the Greenland Ice Sheet in the case of particulate organic carbon. Climate change contributes to these fluxes: approximately 13% of the annual flux of glacier dissolved organic carbon is a result of glacier mass loss. These losses are expected to accelerate, leading to a cumulative loss of roughly 15 teragrams (Tg) of glacial dissolved organic carbon by 2050 due to climate change -- equivalent to about half of the annual flux of dissolved organic carbon from the Amazon River. Thus, glaciers constitute a key link between terrestrial and aquatic carbon fluxes, and will be of increasing importance in land-to-ocean fluxes of organic carbon in glacierized regions.

Storage and release of organic carbon from glaciers and ice sheets

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hood, Eran; Battin, Tom J.; Fellman, Jason; O'Neel, Shad; Spencer, Robert G. M.

2015-01-01

Polar ice sheets and mountain glaciers, which cover roughly 11% of the Earth's land surface, store organic carbon from local and distant sources and then release it to downstream environments. Climate-driven changes to glacier runoff are expected to be larger than climate impacts on other components of the hydrological cycle, and may represent an important flux of organic carbon. A compilation of published data on dissolved organic carbon from glaciers across five continents reveals that mountain and polar glaciers represent a quantitatively important store of organic carbon. The Antarctic Ice Sheet is the repository of most of the roughly 6 petagrams (Pg) of organic carbon stored in glacier ice, but the annual release of glacier organic carbon is dominated by mountain glaciers in the case of dissolved organic carbon and the Greenland Ice Sheet in the case of particulate organic carbon. Climate change contributes to these fluxes: approximately 13% of the annual flux of glacier dissolved organic carbon is a result of glacier mass loss. These losses are expected to accelerate, leading to a cumulative loss of roughly 15 teragrams (Tg) of glacial dissolved organic carbon by 2050 due to climate change — equivalent to about half of the annual flux of dissolved organic carbon from the Amazon River. Thus, glaciers constitute a key link between terrestrial and aquatic carbon fluxes, and will be of increasing importance in land-to-ocean fluxes of organic carbon in glacierized regions.

Greenland ice sheet retreat since the Little Ice Age

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beitch, Marci J.

Late 20th century and 21st century satellite imagery of the perimeter of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) provide high resolution observations of the ice sheet margins. Examining changes in ice margin positions over time yield measurements of GrIS area change and rates of margin retreat. However, longer records of ice sheet margin change are needed to establish more accurate predictions of the ice sheet's future response to global conditions. In this study, the trimzone, the area of deglaciated terrain along the ice sheet edge that lacks mature vegetation cover, is used as a marker of the maximum extent of the ice from its most recent major advance during the Little Ice Age. We compile recently acquired Landsat ETM+ scenes covering the perimeter of the GrIS on which we map area loss on land-, lake-, and marine-terminating margins. We measure an area loss of 13,327 +/- 830 km2, which corresponds to 0.8% shrinkage of the ice sheet. This equates to an averaged horizontal retreat of 363 +/- 69 m across the entire GrIS margin. Mapping the areas exposed since the Little Ice Age maximum, circa 1900 C.E., yields a century-scale rate of change. On average the ice sheet lost an area of 120 +/- 16 km 2/yr, or retreated at a rate of 3.3 +/- 0.7 m/yr since the LIA maximum.

Range contraction and increasing isolation of a polar bear subpopulation in an era of sea-ice loss.

PubMed

Laidre, Kristin L; Born, Erik W; Atkinson, Stephen N; Wiig, Øystein; Andersen, Liselotte W; Lunn, Nicholas J; Dyck, Markus; Regehr, Eric V; McGovern, Richard; Heagerty, Patrick

2018-02-01

Climate change is expected to result in range shifts and habitat fragmentation for many species. In the Arctic, loss of sea ice will reduce barriers to dispersal or eliminate movement corridors, resulting in increased connectivity or geographic isolation with sweeping implications for conservation. We used satellite telemetry, data from individually marked animals (research and harvest), and microsatellite genetic data to examine changes in geographic range, emigration, and interpopulation connectivity of the Baffin Bay (BB) polar bear ( Ursus maritimus ) subpopulation over a 25-year period of sea-ice loss. Satellite telemetry collected from n  = 43 (1991-1995) and 38 (2009-2015) adult females revealed a significant contraction in subpopulation range size (95% bivariate normal kernel range) in most months and seasons, with the most marked reduction being a 70% decline in summer from 716,000 km 2 (SE 58,000) to 211,000 km 2 (SE 23,000) ( p  < .001). Between the 1990s and 2000s, there was a significant shift northward during the on-ice seasons (2.6 ° shift in winter median latitude, 1.1 ° shift in spring median latitude) and a significant range contraction in the ice-free summers. Bears in the 2000s were less likely to leave BB, with significant reductions in the numbers of bears moving into Davis Strait (DS) in winter and Lancaster Sound (LS) in summer. Harvest recoveries suggested both short and long-term fidelity to BB remained high over both periods (83-99% of marked bears remained in BB). Genetic analyses using eight polymorphic microsatellites confirmed a previously documented differentiation between BB, DS, and LS; yet weakly differentiated BB from Kane Basin (KB) for the first time. Our results provide the first multiple lines of evidence for an increasingly geographically and functionally isolated subpopulation of polar bears in the context of long-term sea-ice loss. This may be indicative of future patterns for other polar bear subpopulations under

Fingerprinting sea-level variations in response to continental ice loss: a benchmark exercise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barletta, Valentina R.; Spada, Giorgio; Riva, Riccardo E. M.; James, Thomas S.; Simon, Karen M.; van der Wal, Wouter; Martinec, Zdenek; Klemann, Volker; Olsson, Per-Anders; Hagedoorn, Jan; Stocchi, Paolo; Vermeersen, Bert

2013-04-01

Understanding the response of the Earth to the waxing and waning ice sheets is crucial in various contexts, ranging from the interpretation of modern satellite geodetic measurements to the projections of future sea level trends in response to climate change. All the processes accompanying Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) can be described solving the so-called Sea Level Equation (SLE), an integral equation that accounts for the interactions between the ice sheets, the solid Earth, and the oceans. Modern approaches to the SLE are based on various techniques that range from purely analytical formulations to fully numerical methods. Here we present the results of a benchmark exercise of independently developed codes designed to solve the SLE. The study involves predictions of current sea level changes due to present-day ice mass loss. In spite of the differences in the methods employed, the comparison shows that a significant number of GIA modellers can reproduce their sea-level computations within 2% for well defined, large-scale present-day ice mass changes. Smaller and more detailed loads need further and dedicated benchmarking and high resolution computation. This study shows how the details of the implementation and the inputs specifications are an important, and often underappreciated, aspect. Hence this represents a step toward the assessment of reliability of sea level projections obtained with benchmarked SLE codes.

Long term ice sheet mass change rates and inter-annual variability from GRACE gravimetry.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harig, C.

2017-12-01

The GRACE time series of gravimetry now stretches 15 years since its launch in 2002. Here we use Slepian functions to estimate the long term ice mass trends of Greenland, Antarctica, and several glaciated regions. The spatial representation shows multi-year to decadal regional shifts in accelerations, in agreement with increases in radar derived ice velocity. Interannual variations in ice mass are of particular interest since they can directly link changes in ice sheets to the drivers of change in the polar ocean and atmosphere. The spatial information retained in Slepian functions provides a tool to determine how this link varies in different regions within an ice sheet. We present GRACE observations of the 2013-2014 slowdown in mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet, which was concentrated in specific parts of the ice sheet and in certain months of the year. We also discuss estimating the relative importance of climate factors that control ice mass balance, as a function of location of the glacier/ice cap as well as the spatial variation within an ice sheet by comparing gravimetry with observations of surface air temperature, ocean temperature, etc. as well as model data from climate reanalysis products.

Spatial and temporal distribution of mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet since AD 1900.

PubMed

Kjeldsen, Kristian K; Korsgaard, Niels J; Bjørk, Anders A; Khan, Shfaqat A; Box, Jason E; Funder, Svend; Larsen, Nicolaj K; Bamber, Jonathan L; Colgan, William; van den Broeke, Michiel; Siggaard-Andersen, Marie-Louise; Nuth, Christopher; Schomacker, Anders; Andresen, Camilla S; Willerslev, Eske; Kjær, Kurt H

2015-12-17

The response of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) to changes in temperature during the twentieth century remains contentious, largely owing to difficulties in estimating the spatial and temporal distribution of ice mass changes before 1992, when Greenland-wide observations first became available. The only previous estimates of change during the twentieth century are based on empirical modelling and energy balance modelling. Consequently, no observation-based estimates of the contribution from the GIS to the global-mean sea level budget before 1990 are included in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Here we calculate spatial ice mass loss around the entire GIS from 1900 to the present using aerial imagery from the 1980s. This allows accurate high-resolution mapping of geomorphic features related to the maximum extent of the GIS during the Little Ice Age at the end of the nineteenth century. We estimate the total ice mass loss and its spatial distribution for three periods: 1900-1983 (75.1 ± 29.4 gigatonnes per year), 1983-2003 (73.8 ± 40.5 gigatonnes per year), and 2003-2010 (186.4 ± 18.9 gigatonnes per year). Furthermore, using two surface mass balance models we partition the mass balance into a term for surface mass balance (that is, total precipitation minus total sublimation minus runoff) and a dynamic term. We find that many areas currently undergoing change are identical to those that experienced considerable thinning throughout the twentieth century. We also reveal that the surface mass balance term shows a considerable decrease since 2003, whereas the dynamic term is constant over the past 110 years. Overall, our observation-based findings show that during the twentieth century the GIS contributed at least 25.0 ± 9.4 millimetres of global-mean sea level rise. Our result will help to close the twentieth-century sea level budget, which remains crucial for evaluating the reliability of models used to

Spatial and temporal distribution of mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet since AD 1900

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kjeldsen, Kristian K.; Korsgaard, Niels J.; Bjørk, Anders A.; Khan, Shfaqat A.; Box, Jason E.; Funder, Svend; Larsen, Nicolaj K.; Bamber, Jonathan L.; Colgan, William; van den Broeke, Michiel; Siggaard-Andersen, Marie-Louise; Nuth, Christopher; Schomacker, Anders; Andresen, Camilla S.; Willerslev, Eske; Kjær, Kurt H.

2015-12-01

The response of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) to changes in temperature during the twentieth century remains contentious, largely owing to difficulties in estimating the spatial and temporal distribution of ice mass changes before 1992, when Greenland-wide observations first became available. The only previous estimates of change during the twentieth century are based on empirical modelling and energy balance modelling. Consequently, no observation-based estimates of the contribution from the GIS to the global-mean sea level budget before 1990 are included in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Here we calculate spatial ice mass loss around the entire GIS from 1900 to the present using aerial imagery from the 1980s. This allows accurate high-resolution mapping of geomorphic features related to the maximum extent of the GIS during the Little Ice Age at the end of the nineteenth century. We estimate the total ice mass loss and its spatial distribution for three periods: 1900-1983 (75.1 ± 29.4 gigatonnes per year), 1983-2003 (73.8 ± 40.5 gigatonnes per year), and 2003-2010 (186.4 ± 18.9 gigatonnes per year). Furthermore, using two surface mass balance models we partition the mass balance into a term for surface mass balance (that is, total precipitation minus total sublimation minus runoff) and a dynamic term. We find that many areas currently undergoing change are identical to those that experienced considerable thinning throughout the twentieth century. We also reveal that the surface mass balance term shows a considerable decrease since 2003, whereas the dynamic term is constant over the past 110 years. Overall, our observation-based findings show that during the twentieth century the GIS contributed at least 25.0 ± 9.4 millimetres of global-mean sea level rise. Our result will help to close the twentieth-century sea level budget, which remains crucial for evaluating the reliability of models used to

Changes in ice dynamics along the northern Antarctic Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seehaus, T.; Braun, M.; Cook, A.; Marinsek, S.

2016-12-01

The climatic conditions along the Antarctic Peninsula have undergone considerable changes during the last 50 years. Numerous ice shelves along the Antarctic Peninsula retreated, started to break-up or disintegrated. The loss of the buttressing effect caused tributary glaciers to accelerate with increasing ice discharge along the Antarctic Peninsula. The aim is to study the reaction of glaciers at the northern Antarctic Peninsula to the changing climatic conditions and the readjustments of tributary glaciers to ice shelf disintegration, as well as to better quantify the ice mass loss and its temporal changes.We analysed time series of various SAR satellite sensors to detect changes in ice flow speed and surface elevation. Intensity feature tracking techniques were applied on data stacks from different SAR satellites over the last 20 years to infer changes in glacier surface velocities. High resolution bi-static TanDEM-X data was used to derive digital elevation models by differential SAR interferometry. In combination with ASTER and SPOT stereo images, changes in surface elevations were determined. Altimeter data from ICESat, CryoSat-2 and NASA operation IceBridge ATM were used for vertical referencing and quality assessment of the digital elevation models. Along the west coast of the northern Antarctic Peninsula an increase in flow speeds by 40% between 1992 and 2014 was observed, whereas glaciers on the east side (north of former Prince-Gustav Ice Shelf) showed a strong deceleration. In total an ice discharge of 17.93±6.22 Gt/a was estimated for 74 glaciers on the Antarctic Peninsula north of 65°S. Most of the former ice shelf tributaries showed similar reactions to ice shelf disintegration. At the Sjögren-Inlet a total ice mass loss of -37.5±8.2 Gt and a contribution to sea level rise of 20.9±5.2 Gt were found in the period 1993-2014. The average surface lowering rate in the period 2012-2014 amounts to -2.2 m/a. At Dinsmoor-Bombardier-Edgeworth glacier

Antarctic ice sheet discharge driven by atmosphere-ocean feedbacks at the Last Glacial Termination.

PubMed

Fogwill, C J; Turney, C S M; Golledge, N R; Etheridge, D M; Rubino, M; Thornton, D P; Baker, A; Woodward, J; Winter, K; van Ommen, T D; Moy, A D; Curran, M A J; Davies, S M; Weber, M E; Bird, M I; Munksgaard, N C; Menviel, L; Rootes, C M; Ellis, B; Millman, H; Vohra, J; Rivera, A; Cooper, A

2017-01-05

Reconstructing the dynamic response of the Antarctic ice sheets to warming during the Last Glacial Termination (LGT; 18,000-11,650 yrs ago) allows us to disentangle ice-climate feedbacks that are key to improving future projections. Whilst the sequence of events during this period is reasonably well-known, relatively poor chronological control has precluded precise alignment of ice, atmospheric and marine records, making it difficult to assess relationships between Antarctic ice-sheet (AIS) dynamics, climate change and sea level. Here we present results from a highly-resolved 'horizontal ice core' from the Weddell Sea Embayment, which records millennial-scale AIS dynamics across this extensive region. Counterintuitively, we find AIS mass-loss across the full duration of the Antarctic Cold Reversal (ACR; 14,600-12,700 yrs ago), with stabilisation during the subsequent millennia of atmospheric warming. Earth-system and ice-sheet modelling suggests these contrasting trends were likely Antarctic-wide, sustained by feedbacks amplified by the delivery of Circumpolar Deep Water onto the continental shelf. Given the anti-phase relationship between inter-hemispheric climate trends across the LGT our findings demonstrate that Southern Ocean-AIS feedbacks were controlled by global atmospheric teleconnections. With increasing stratification of the Southern Ocean and intensification of mid-latitude westerly winds today, such teleconnections could amplify AIS mass loss and accelerate global sea-level rise.

Trends in Arctic Sea Ice Leads Detection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ackerman, S. A.; Hoffman, J.; Liu, Y.; Key, J. R.

2016-12-01

Sea ice leads (fractures) play a critical role in the exchange of mass and energy between the ocean and atmosphere in the polar regions, particularly in the Arctic. Leads result in warming water and accelerated melting because leads absorb more solar energy than the surrounding ice. In the autumn, winter, and spring leads impact the local atmospheric structure and cloud properties because of the large flux of heat and moisture into the atmosphere. Given the rapid thinning and loss of Arctic sea ice over the last few decades, changes in the distribution of leads can be expected in response. Leads are largely wind driven, so their distributions will also be affected by the changes in atmospheric circulation that have occurred. From a climate perspective, identifying trends in lead characteristics (width, orientation, and spatial distribution) will advance our understanding of both thermodynamic and mechanical processes. This study presents the spatial and temporal distributions of Arctic sea ice leads since 2002 using a new method to detect and characterize sea ice leads with optical (visible, infrared) satellite data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). Using reflective and emissive channels, ice concentration is derived in cloud-free regions and used to create a mask of potential leads. An algorithm then uses a combination of image processing techniques to identify and characterizes leads. The results show interannual variability of leads positioning as well as parameters such as area, length, orientation and width.

Jakobshavn Isbrae, Greenland: DEMs, orthophotos, surface velocities, and ice loss derived from photogrammetric re-analysis of July 1985 repeat aerial photography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Motyka, R.; Fahnestock, M.; Howat, I.; Truffer, M.; Brecher, H.; Luethi, M.

2008-12-01

Jakobshavn Isbrae drains about 7 % of the Greenland Ice Sheet and is the ice sheet's largest outlet glacier. Two sets of high elevation (~13,500 m), high resolution (2 m) aerial photographs of Jakobshavn Isbrae were obtained about two weeks apart during July 1985 (Fastook et al, 1995). These historic photo sets have become increasingly important for documenting and understanding the dynamic state of this outlet stream prior to the rapid retreat and massive ice loss that began in 1998 and continues today. The original photogrammetric analysis of this imagery is summarized in Fastook et al. (1995). They derived a coarse DEM (3 km grid spacing) covering an area of approximately 100 km x 100 km by interpolating several hundred positions determined manually from block-aerial triangulation. We have re-analyzed these photos sets using digital photogrammetry (BAE Socet Set©) and significantly improved DEM quality and resolution (20, 50, and 100 m grids). The DEMs were in turn used to produce high quality orthophoto mosaics. Comparing our 1985 DEM to a DEM we derived from May 2006 NASA ATM measurements showed a total ice volume loss of ~ 105 km3 over the lower drainage area; almost all of this loss has occurred since 1997. Ice stream surface velocities derived from the 1985 orthomosaics showed speeds of 20 m/d on the floating tongue, diminishing to 5 m/d at 50 km further upstream. Velocities have since nearly doubled along the ice stream during its current retreat. Fastook, J.L., H.H. Brecher, and T.J. Hughes, 1995. J.of Glaciol. 11 (137), 161-173.

Polar zoobenthos blue carbon storage increases with sea ice losses, because across-shelf growth gains from longer algal blooms outweigh ice scour mortality in the shallows.

PubMed

Barnes, David K A

2017-12-01

One of the major climate-forced global changes has been white to blue to green; losses of sea ice extent in time and space around Arctic and West Antarctic seas has increased open water and the duration (though not magnitude) of phytoplankton blooms. Blueing of the poles has increases potential for heat absorption for positive feedback but conversely the longer phytoplankton blooms have increased carbon export to storage and sequestration by shelf benthos. However, ice shelf collapses and glacier retreat can calve more icebergs, and the increased open water allows icebergs more opportunities to scour the seabed, reducing zoobenthic blue carbon capture and storage. Here the size and variability in benthic blue carbon in mega and macrobenthos was assessed in time and space at Ryder and Marguerite bays of the West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP). In particular the influence of the duration of primary productivity and ice scour are investigated from the shallows to typical shelf depths of 500 m. Ice scour frequency dominated influence on benthic blue carbon at 5 m, to comparable with phytoplankton duration by 25 m depth. At 500 m only phytoplankton duration was significant and influential. WAP zoobenthos was calculated to generate ~10 7 , 4.5 × 10 6 and 1.6 × 10 6 tonnes per year (between 2002 and 2015) in terms of production, immobilization and sequestration of carbon respectively. Thus about 1% of annual primary productivity has sequestration potential at the end of the trophic cascade. Polar zoobenthic blue carbon capture and storage responses to sea ice losses, the largest negative feedback on climate change, has been underestimated despite some offsetting of gain by increased ice scouring with more open water. Equivalent survey of Arctic and sub-Antarctic shelves, for which new projects have started, should reveal the true extent of this feedback and how much its variability contributes to uncertainty in climate models. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Greenland ice sheet beyond 2100: Simulating its evolution and influence using the coupled climate-ice sheet model EC-Earth - PISM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, S.; Christensen, J. H.; Madsen, M. S.; Ringgaard, I. M.; Petersen, R. A.; Langen, P. P.

2017-12-01

Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) is observed undergoing a rapid change in the recent decades, with an increasing area of surface melting and ablation and a speeding mass loss. Predicting the GrIS changes and their climate consequences relies on the understanding of the interaction of the GrIS with the climate system on both global and local scales, and requires climate model systems incorporating with an explicit and physically consistent ice sheet module. In this work we study the GrIS evolution and its interaction with the climate system using a fully coupled global climate model with a dynamical ice sheet model for the GrIS. The coupled model system, EC-EARTH - PISM, consisting of the atmosphere-ocean-sea ice model system EC-EARTH, and the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM), has been employed for a 1400-year simulation forced by CMIP5 historical forcing from 1850 to 2005 and continued along an extended RCP8.5 scenario with the forcing peaking at 2200 and stabilized hereafter. The simulation reveals that, following the anthropogenic forcing increase, the global mean surface temperature rapidly rises about 10 °C in the 21st and 22nd century. After the forcing stops increasing after 2200, the temperature change slows down and eventually stabilizes at about 12.5 °C above the preindustrial level. In response to the climate warming, the GrIS starts losing mass slowly in the 21st century, but the ice retreat accelerates substantially after 2100 and ice mass loss continues hereafter at a constant rate of approximately 0.5 m sea level rise equivalence per 100 years, even as the warming rate gradually levels off. Ultimately the volume and extent of GrIS reduce to less than half of its preindustrial value. To understand the interaction of GrIS with the climate system, the characteristics of atmospheric and oceanic circulation in the warm climate are analyzed. The circulation patterns associated with the negative surface mass balance that leads to GrIS retreat are investigated

Arctic ice cover, ice thickness and tipping points.

PubMed

Wadhams, Peter

2012-02-01

We summarize the latest results on the rapid changes that are occurring to Arctic sea ice thickness and extent, the reasons for them, and the methods being used to monitor the changing ice thickness. Arctic sea ice extent had been shrinking at a relatively modest rate of 3-4% per decade (annually averaged) but after 1996 this speeded up to 10% per decade and in summer 2007 there was a massive collapse of ice extent to a new record minimum of only 4.1 million km(2). Thickness has been falling at a more rapid rate (43% in the 25 years from the early 1970s to late 1990s) with a specially rapid loss of mass from pressure ridges. The summer 2007 event may have arisen from an interaction between the long-term retreat and more rapid thinning rates. We review thickness monitoring techniques that show the greatest promise on different spatial and temporal scales, and for different purposes. We show results from some recent work from submarines, and speculate that the trends towards retreat and thinning will inevitably lead to an eventual loss of all ice in summer, which can be described as a 'tipping point' in that the former situation, of an Arctic covered with mainly multi-year ice, cannot be retrieved.

Vertical and horizontal surface displacements near Jakobshavn Isbræ driven by melt-induced and dynamic ice loss

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nielsen, Karina; Khan, Shfaqat A.; Spada, Giorgio; Wahr, John; Bevis, Michael; Liu, Lin; van Dam, Tonie

2013-04-01

We analyze Global Positioning System (GPS) time series of relative vertical and horizontal surface displacements from 2006 to 2012 at four GPS sites located between ˜5 and ˜150 km from the front of Jakobshavn Isbræ (JI) in west Greenland. Horizontal displacements during 2006-2010 at KAGA, ILUL, and QEQE, relative to the site AASI, are directed toward north-west, suggesting that the main mass loss signal is located near the frontal portion of JI. The directions of the observed displacements are supported by modeled displacements, derived from NASA's Airborne Topographic Mapper (ATM) surveys of surface elevations from 2006, 2009, and 2010. However, horizontal displacements during 2010-2012 at KAGA and ILUL are directed more towards the west suggesting a change in the spatial distribution of the ice mass loss. In addition, we observe an increase in the uplift rate during 2010-2012 as compared to 2006-2010. The sudden change in vertical and horizontal displacements is due to enhanced melt-induced ice loss in 2010 and 2012.

Glacier Acceleration and Thinning after Ice Shelf Collapse in the Larsen B Embayment, Antarctica

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Scambos, T. A.; Bohlander, J. A.; Shuman, C. A.; Skvarca, P.

2004-01-01

Ice velocities derived from five Landsat 7 images acquired between January 2000 and February 2003 show a two- to six-fold increase in centerline speed of four glaciers flowing into the now-collapsed section of the Larsen B Ice Shelf. Satellite laser altimetry from ICEsat indicates the surface of Hektoria Glacier lowered by up to 38 +/- 6 m a six-month period beginning one year after the break-up in March 2002. Smaller elevation losses are observed for Crane and Jorum glaciers over a later 5-month period. Two glaciers south of the collapse area, Flask and Leppard, show little change in speed or elevation. Seasonal variations in speed preceding the large post-collapse velocity increases suggest that both summer melt percolation and changes in the stress field due to shelf removal play a major role in glacier dynamics.

Ice Mass Changes in the Russian High Arctic from Repeat High Resolution Topography.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Willis, Michael; Zheng, Whyjay; Pritchard, Matthew; Melkonian, Andrew; Morin, Paul; Porter, Claire; Howat, Ian; Noh, Myoung-Jong; Jeong, Seongsu

2016-04-01

We use a combination of ASTER and cartographically derived Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) supplemented with WorldView DEMs, the ArcticDEM and ICESat lidar returns to produce a time-series of ice changes occurring in the Russian High Arctic between the mid-20th century and the present. Glaciers on the western, Barents Sea coast of Novaya Zemlya are in a state of general retreat and thinning, while those on the eastern, Kara Sea coast are retreating at a slower rate. Franz Josef Land has a complicated pattern of thinning and thickening, although almost all the thinning is associated with rapid outlet glaciers feeding ice shelves. Severnaya Zemlya is also thinning in a complicated manner. A very rapid surging glacier is transferring mass into the ocean from the western periphery of the Vavilov Ice Cap on October Revolution Island, while glaciers feeding the former Matusevich Ice Shelf continue to thin at rates that are faster than those observed during the operational period of ICESat, between 2003 and 2009. Passive microwave studies indicate the total number of melt days is increasing in the Russian Arctic, although much of the melt may refreeze within the firn. It is likely that ice dynamic changes will drive mass loss for the immediate future. The sub-marine basins beneath several of the ice caps in the region suggest the possibility that mass loss rates may accelerate in the future.

Subsurface Gas Flow and Ice Grain Acceleration within Enceladus and Europa Fissures: 2D DSMC Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tucker, O. J.; Combi, M. R.; Tenishev, V.

2014-12-01

The ejection of material from geysers is a ubiquitous occurrence on outer solar system bodies. Water vapor plumes have been observed emanating from the southern hemispheres of Enceladus and Europa (Hansen et al. 2011, Roth et al. 2014), and N2plumes carrying ice and ark particles on Triton (Soderblom et al. 2009). The gas and ice grain distributions in the Enceladus plume depend on the subsurface gas properties and the geometry of the fissures e.g., (Schmidt et al. 2008, Ingersoll et al. 2010). Of course the fissures can have complex geometries due to tidal stresses, melting, freezing etc., but directly sampled and inferred gas and grain properties for the plume (source rate, bulk velocity, terminal grain velocity) can be used to provide a basis to constrain characteristic dimensions of vent width and depth. We used a 2-dimensional Direct Simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) technique to model venting from both axi-symmetric canyons with widths ~2 km and narrow jets with widths ~15-40 m. For all of our vent geometries, considered the water vapor source rates (1027­ - 1028 s-1) and bulk gas velocities (~330 - 670 m/s) obtained at the surface were consistent with inferred values obtained by fits of the data for the plume densities (1026 - 1028 s-1, 250 - 1000 m/s) respectively. However, when using the resulting DSMC gas distribution for the canyon geometries to integrate the trajectories of ice grains we found it insufficient to accelerate submicron ice grains to Enceladus' escape speed. On the other hand, the gas distributions in the jet like vents accelerated grains > 10 μm significantly above Enceladus' escape speed. It has been suggested that micron-sized grains are ejected from the vents with speeds comparable to the Enceladus escape speed. Here we report on these results including comparisons to results obtained from 1D models as well as discuss the implications of our plume model results. We also show preliminary results for similar considerations applied to Europa

Examining Differences in Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nghiem, S. V.; Rigor, I. G.; Clemente-Colon, P.; Neumann, G.; Li, P.

2015-12-01

The paradox of the rapid reduction of Arctic sea ice versus the stability (or slight increase) of Antarctic sea ice remains a challenge in the cryospheric science research community. Here we start by reviewing a number of explanations that have been suggested by different researchers and authors. One suggestion is that stratospheric ozone depletion may affect atmospheric circulation and wind patterns such as the Southern Annular Mode, and thereby sustaining the Antarctic sea ice cover. The reduction of salinity and density in the near-surface layer may weaken the convective mixing of cold and warmer waters, and thus maintaining regions of no warming around the Antarctic. A decrease in sea ice growth may reduce salt rejection and upper-ocean density to enhance thermohalocline stratification, and thus supporting Antarctic sea ice production. Melt water from Antarctic ice shelves collects in a cool and fresh surface layer to shield the surface ocean from the warmer deeper waters, and thus leading to an expansion of Antarctic sea ice. Also, wind effects may positively contribute to Antarctic sea ice growth. Moreover, Antarctica lacks of additional heat sources such as warm river discharge to melt sea ice as opposed to the case in the Arctic. Despite of these suggested explanations, factors that can consistently and persistently maintains the stability of sea ice still need to be identified for the Antarctic, which are opposed to factors that help accelerate sea ice loss in the Arctic. In this respect, using decadal observations from multiple satellite datasets, we examine differences in sea ice properties and distributions, together with dynamic and thermodynamic processes and interactions with land, ocean, and atmosphere, causing differences in Arctic and Antarctic sea ice change to contribute to resolving the Arctic-Antarctic sea ice paradox.

Towards development of an operational snow on sea ice product

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stroeve, J.; Liston, G. E.; Barrett, A. P.; Tschudi, M. A.; Stewart, S.

2017-12-01

Sea ice has been visibly changing over the past couple of decades; most notably the annual minimum extent which has shown a distinct downward, and recently accelerating, trend. September mean sea ice extent was over 7×106 km2 in the 1980's, but has averaged less than 5×106 km2 in the last decade. Should this loss continue, there will be wide-ranging impacts on marine ecosystems, coastal communities, prospects for resource extraction and marine activity, and weather conditions in the Arctic and beyond. While changes in the spatial extent of sea ice have been routinely monitored since the 1970s, less is known about how the thickness of the ice cover has changed. While estimates of ice thickness across the Arctic Ocean have become available over the past 20 years based on data from ERS-1/2, Envisat, ICESat, CryoSat-2 satellites and Operation IceBridge aircraft campaigns, the variety of these different measurement approaches, sensor technologies and spatial coverage present formidable challenges. Key among these is that measurement techniques do not measure ice thickness directly - retrievals also require snow depth and density. Towards that end, a sophisticated snow accumulation model is tested in a Lagrangian framework to map daily snow depths across the Arctic sea ice cover using atmospheric reanalysis data as input. Accuracy of the snow accumulation is assessed through comparison with Operation IceBridge data and ice mass balance buoys (IMBs). Impacts on ice thickness retrievals are further discussed.

Rate acceleration of the heterogeneous reaction of ozone with a model alkene at the air-ice interface at low temperatures.

PubMed

Ray, Debajyoti; Malongwe, Joseph K'Ekuboni; Klán, Petr

2013-07-02

The kinetics of the ozonation reaction of 1,1-diphenylethylene (DPE) on the surface of ice grains (also called "artificial snow"), produced by shock-freezing of DPE aqueous solutions or DPE vapor-deposition on pure ice grains, was studied in the temperature range of 268 to 188 K. A remarkable and unexpected increase in the apparent ozonation rates with decreasing temperature was evaluated using the Langmuir-Hinshelwood and Eley-Rideal kinetic models, and by estimating the apparent specific surface area of the ice grains. We suggest that an increase of the number of surface reactive sites, and possibly higher ozone uptake coefficients are responsible for the apparent rate acceleration of DPE ozonation at the air-ice interface at lower temperatures. The increasing number of reactive sites is probably related to the fact that organic molecules are displaced more to the top of a disordered interface (or quasi-liquid) layer on the ice surface, which makes them more accessible to the gas-phase reactants. The effect of NaCl as a cocontaminant on ozonation rates was also investigated. The environmental implications of this phenomenon for natural ice/snow are discussed. DPE was selected as an example of environmentally relevant species which can react with ozone. For typical atmospheric ozone concentrations in polar areas (20 ppbv), we estimated that its half-life on the ice surface would decrease from ∼5 days at 258 K to ∼13 h at 188 K at submonolayer DPE loadings.

Loss of circadian clock accelerates aging in neurodegeneration-prone mutants.

PubMed

Krishnan, Natraj; Rakshit, Kuntol; Chow, Eileen S; Wentzell, Jill S; Kretzschmar, Doris; Giebultowicz, Jadwiga M

2012-03-01

Circadian clocks generate rhythms in molecular, cellular, physiological, and behavioral processes. Recent studies suggest that disruption of the clock mechanism accelerates organismal senescence and age-related pathologies in mammals. Impaired circadian rhythms are observed in many neurological diseases; however, it is not clear whether loss of rhythms is the cause or result of neurodegeneration, or both. To address this important question, we examined the effects of circadian disruption in Drosophila melanogaster mutants that display clock-unrelated neurodegenerative phenotypes. We combined a null mutation in the clock gene period (per(01)) that abolishes circadian rhythms, with a hypomorphic mutation in the carbonyl reductase gene sniffer (sni(1)), which displays oxidative stress induced neurodegeneration. We report that disruption of circadian rhythms in sni(1) mutants significantly reduces their lifespan compared to single mutants. Shortened lifespan in double mutants was coupled with accelerated neuronal degeneration evidenced by vacuolization in the adult brain. In addition, per(01)sni(1) flies showed drastically impaired vertical mobility and increased accumulation of carbonylated proteins compared to age-matched single mutant flies. Loss of per function does not affect sni mRNA expression, suggesting that these genes act via independent pathways producing additive effects. Finally, we show that per(01) mutation accelerates the onset of brain pathologies when combined with neurodegeneration-prone mutation in another gene, swiss cheese (sws(1)), which does not operate through the oxidative stress pathway. Taken together, our data suggest that the period gene may be causally involved in neuroprotective pathways in aging Drosophila. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Loss of circadian clock accelerates aging in neurodegeneration-prone mutants

PubMed Central

Krishnan, Natraj; Rakshit, Kuntol; Chow, Eileen S.; Wentzell, Jill S.; Kretzschmar, Doris; Giebultowicz, Jadwiga M.

2012-01-01

Circadian clocks generate rhythms in molecular, cellular, physiological, and behavioral processes. Recent studies suggest that disruption of the clock mechanism accelerates organismal senescence and age-related pathologies in mammals. Impaired circadian rhythms are observed in many neurological diseases; however, it is not clear whether loss of rhythms is the cause or result of neurodegeneration, or both. To address this important question, we examined the effects of circadian disruption in Drosophila melanogaster mutants that display clock-unrelated neurodegenerative phenotypes. We combined a null mutation in the clock gene period (per01) that abolishes circadian rhythms, with a hypomorphic mutation in the carbonyl reductase gene sniffer (sni1), which displays oxidative stress induced neurodegeneration. We report that disruption of circadian rhythms in sni1 mutants significantly reduces their lifespan compared to single mutants. Shortened lifespan in double mutants was coupled with accelerated neuronal degeneration evidenced by vacuolization in the adult brain. In addition, per01 sni1 flies showed drastically impaired vertical mobility and increased accumulation of carbonylated proteins compared to age-matched single mutant flies. Loss of per function does not affect sni mRNA expression, suggesting that these genes act via independent pathways producing additive effects. Finally, we show that per01 mutation accelerates the onset of brain pathologies when combined with neurodegeneration-prone mutation in another gene, swiss cheese (sws1), which does not operate through the oxidative stress pathway. Taken together, our data suggest that the period gene may be causally involved in neuroprotective pathways in aging Drosophila. PMID:22227001

[A simulation study with finite element model on the unequal loss of peripheral vision caused by acceleration].

PubMed

Geng, Xiaoqi; Liu, Xiaoyu; Liu, Songyang; Xu, Yan; Zhao, Xianliang; Wang, Jie; Fan, Yubo

2017-04-01

An unequal loss of peripheral vision may happen with high sustaining multi-axis acceleration, leading to a great potential flight safety hazard. In the present research, finite element method was used to study the mechanism of unequal loss of peripheral vision. Firstly, a 3D geometric model of skull was developed based on the adult computer tomography (CT) images. The model of double eyes was created by mirroring with the previous right eye model. Then, the double-eye model was matched to the skull model, and fat was filled between eyeballs and skull. Acceleration loads of head-to-foot (G z ), right-to-left (G y ), chest-to-back (G x ) and multi-axis directions were applied to the current model to simulate dynamic response of retina by explicit dynamics solution. The results showed that the relative strain of double eyes was 25.7% under multi-axis acceleration load. Moreover, the strain distributions showed a significant difference among acceleration loaded in different directions. It indicated that a finite element model of double eyes was an effective means to study the mechanism of an unequal loss of peripheral vision at sustaining high multi-axis acceleration.

The Effect of Ice Formations on Propeller Performance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Neel, C. B., Jr.; Bright, L. G.

1950-01-01

Measurements of propeller efficiency loss due to ice formation are supplemented by an analysis to establish the magnitude of efficiency losses to be anticipated during flight in icing conditions. The measurements were made during flight in natural icing conditions; whereas the analysis consisted of an investIgation of changes in blade-section aerodynamic characteristics caused by ice formation and the resulting propeller efficiency changes. Agreement in the order of magnitude of eff 1- ciency losses to be expected is obtained between measured and analytical results. The results indicate that, in general, efficiency losses can be expected to be less than 10 percent; whereas maximum losses, which will be encountered only rarely, may be as high as 15 or 20 percent. Reported. losses larger than 15 or 20 percent, based on reductions in airplane performance, probably are due to ice accretions on other parts of the airplane. Blade-element theory is used in the analytical treatment, and calculations are made to show the degree to which the aerodynamic characteristics of a blade section. must be altered to produce various propeller efficiency losses. The effects of ice accretions on airfoil-section characteristics at subcritical speeds and their influence on drag-divergence Mach number are examined, and. the attendant maximum efficiency losses are computed. The effect of kinetic heating on the radial extent of ice formation is considered, and its influence on required length of blade heating shoes is discussed. It is demonstrated how the efficiency loss resulting from an icing encounter is influenced by the decisions of the pilot in adjusting the engine and propeller controls.

Recent rift formation and impact on the structural integrity of the Brunt Ice Shelf, East Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Rydt, Jan; Hilmar Gudmundsson, G.; Nagler, Thomas; Wuite, Jan; King, Edward C.

2018-02-01

We report on the recent reactivation of a large rift in the Brunt Ice Shelf, East Antarctica, in December 2012 and the formation of a 50 km long new rift in October 2016. Observations from a suite of ground-based and remote sensing instruments between January 2000 and July 2017 were used to track progress of both rifts in unprecedented detail. Results reveal a steady accelerating trend in their width, in combination with alternating episodes of fast ( > 600 m day-1) and slow propagation of the rift tip, controlled by the heterogeneous structure of the ice shelf. A numerical ice flow model and a simple propagation algorithm based on the stress distribution in the ice shelf were successfully used to hindcast the observed trajectories and to simulate future rift progression under different assumptions. Results show a high likelihood of ice loss at the McDonald Ice Rumples, the only pinning point of the ice shelf. The nascent iceberg calving and associated reduction in pinning of the Brunt Ice Shelf may provide a uniquely monitored natural experiment of ice shelf variability and provoke a deeper understanding of similar processes elsewhere in Antarctica.

Greenland ice sheet mass balance: a review.

PubMed

Khan, Shfaqat A; Aschwanden, Andy; Bjørk, Anders A; Wahr, John; Kjeldsen, Kristian K; Kjær, Kurt H

2015-04-01

Over the past quarter of a century the Arctic has warmed more than any other region on Earth, causing a profound impact on the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) and its contribution to the rise in global sea level. The loss of ice can be partitioned into processes related to surface mass balance and to ice discharge, which are forced by internal or external (atmospheric/oceanic/basal) fluctuations. Regardless of the measurement method, observations over the last two decades show an increase in ice loss rate, associated with speeding up of glaciers and enhanced melting. However, both ice discharge and melt-induced mass losses exhibit rapid short-term fluctuations that, when extrapolated into the future, could yield erroneous long-term trends. In this paper we review the GrIS mass loss over more than a century by combining satellite altimetry, airborne altimetry, interferometry, aerial photographs and gravimetry data sets together with modelling studies. We revisit the mass loss of different sectors and show that they manifest quite different sensitivities to atmospheric and oceanic forcing. In addition, we discuss recent progress in constructing coupled ice-ocean-atmosphere models required to project realistic future sea-level changes.

Response of Antarctic ice shelf melt to SAM trend and possible feedbacks with the ice-dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donat-Magnin, Marion; Jourdain, Nicolas C.; Gallée, Hubert; Spence, Paul; Cornford, Stephen L.; Le Sommer, Julien; Durand, Gaël

2017-04-01

The observed positive trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) may warm the Southern Ocean sub-surface through decreased Ekman downward pumping. Subsequent change in ice-shelves melt has been suggested to trigger glacier acceleration in West Antarctica. Here we use a regional ocean model configuration of the Amundsen Sea that includes interactive ice-shelf cavities. Our results show that the inclusion of ice-shelves changes the ocean response to the projected SAM trend, i.e. it typically inhibits a part of the SAM-induced subsurface warming. Heat budget analysis has been used to propose responsible mechanisms. Regarding Thwaites and Pine Island, sub ice-shelf melt increases above 400m by approximately 40% for Thwaites and 10% for Pine Island and decreases by up to 10% below in response to ocean temperature changes driven by the projected SAM trend. The melt sensitivity to poleward shifting winds is nonetheless small compared to the sensitivity to an ice-sheet instability, i.e. to a projected change in the shape of ice-shelf cavities. For instance, the sub ice-shelf melt are doubled near the grounding line of some glaciers in response to the largest grounding line retreat projected for 2100. Large increase in basal melt close to the grounding line could largely impact instability and glacier acceleration. Our work suggests the need for including ice shelves into ocean models, and to couple ocean models to ice-sheet models in climate projections.

Global glacier and ice sheet surface velocities derived from 31 years of Landsat imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gardner, A. S.; Scambos, T. A.; Fahnestock, M. A.

2016-12-01

Glaciers and ice sheets are contributing substantial volumes of water to the world's oceans due to enhanced melt resulting from changes in ocean and atmospheric conditions and respective feedbacks. Improving understanding of the processes leading to accelerated rates of ice loss is necessary for reducing uncertainties sea level projections. One key to doing this is to assemble and analyze long records of glacier change that characterize grounded ice response to changes in driving stress, buttressing, and basal conditions. As part of the NASA funded GO_LIVE project we exploit 31 years of Landsat imagery to construct detailed time histories of global glacier velocities. Early exploration of the dataset reveals the diversity of information to be gleaned: sudden tidewater glacier speedups in the Antarctic Peninsula, rifting of Antarctic ice shelves, high variability in velocities near glacier grounding lines, frequent surge activity in the mountainous regions of Alaska and High Mountain Asia, and the slowdown of land-terminating valley glaciers in Arctic Canada and elsewhere.

Can preferred atmospheric circulation patterns over the North-Atlantic-Eurasian region be associated with arctic sea ice loss?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crasemann, Berit; Handorf, Dörthe; Jaiser, Ralf; Dethloff, Klaus; Nakamura, Tetsu; Ukita, Jinro; Yamazaki, Koji

2017-12-01

In the framework of atmospheric circulation regimes, we study whether the recent Arctic sea ice loss and Arctic Amplification are associated with changes in the frequency of occurrence of preferred atmospheric circulation patterns during the extended winter season from December to March. To determine regimes we applied a cluster analysis to sea-level pressure fields from reanalysis data and output from an atmospheric general circulation model. The specific set up of the two analyzed model simulations for low and high ice conditions allows for attributing differences between the simulations to the prescribed sea ice changes only. The reanalysis data revealed two circulation patterns that occur more frequently for low Arctic sea ice conditions: a Scandinavian blocking in December and January and a negative North Atlantic Oscillation pattern in February and March. An analysis of related patterns of synoptic-scale activity and 2 m temperatures provides a synoptic interpretation of the corresponding large-scale regimes. The regimes that occur more frequently for low sea ice conditions are resembled reasonably well by the model simulations. Based on those results we conclude that the detected changes in the frequency of occurrence of large-scale circulation patterns can be associated with changes in Arctic sea ice conditions.

Enhanced wintertime greenhouse effect reinforcing Arctic amplification and initial sea-ice melting.

PubMed

Cao, Yunfeng; Liang, Shunlin; Chen, Xiaona; He, Tao; Wang, Dongdong; Cheng, Xiao

2017-08-16

The speeds of both Arctic surface warming and sea-ice shrinking have accelerated over recent decades. However, the causes of this unprecedented phenomenon remain unclear and are subjects of considerable debate. In this study, we report strong observational evidence, for the first time from long-term (1984-2014) spatially complete satellite records, that increased cloudiness and atmospheric water vapor in winter and spring have caused an extraordinary downward longwave radiative flux to the ice surface, which may then amplify the Arctic wintertime ice-surface warming. In addition, we also provide observed evidence that it is quite likely the enhancement of the wintertime greenhouse effect caused by water vapor and cloudiness has advanced the time of onset of ice melting in mid-May through inhibiting sea-ice refreezing in the winter and accelerating the pre-melting process in the spring, and in turn triggered the positive sea-ice albedo feedback process and accelerated the sea ice melting in the summer.

Simulating ice thickness and velocity evolution of Upernavik Isstrøm 1849-2017 with ISSM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haubner, K.; Box, J.; Schlegel, N.; Larour, E. Y.; Morlighem, M.; Solgaard, A.; Kjeldsen, K. K.; Larsen, S. H.; Rignot, E. J.; Dupont, T. K.; Kjaer, K. H.

2017-12-01

Tidewater terminus changes have a significant influence on glacier velocity and mass balance and impact therefore Greenland's ice mass balance. Improving glacier front changes in ice sheet models helps understanding the processes that are driving glacier mass changes and improves predictions on Greenland's mass loss. We use the level set based moving boundary capability (Bondzio et al., 2016) included in the Ice Sheet System Model ISSM to reconstruct velocity and thickness changes on Upernavik Isstrøm, Greenland from 1849 to 2017. During the simulation, we use various data sets. For the model initialization, trim line data and an observed calving front position determine the shape of the ice surface elevation. The terminus changes are prescribed by observations. Data sets like the GIMP DEM, ArcticDEM, IceBridge surface elevation and ice surface velocities from the ESA project CCI and NASA project MEaSUREs help evaluating the simulation performance. The simulation is sensitive to the prescribed terminus changes, showing an average acceleration along the three flow lines between 50% and 190% from 1849 to 2017. Simulated ice surface velocity and elevation between 1990 and 2012 are within +/-20% of observations (GIMP, ArcticDEM, IceBridge, CCI and MEaSUREs). Simulated mass changes indicate increased dynamical ice loss from 1932 onward, amplified by increased negative SMB anomalies after 1998. More detailed information about methods and findings can be found in Haubner et al., 2017 (in TC discussion, describing simulation results between 1849-2012). Future goals are the comparison of ice surface velocity changes simulated with prescribed terminus retreat against other retreat schemes (Morlighem et al., 2016; Levermann et al., 2012; Bondzio et al., 2017) and applying the method onto other tidewater glaciers.

Surface melt effects on Cryosat-2 elevation retrievals in the ablation zone of the Greenland ice sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Slater, T.; McMillan, M.; Shepherd, A.; Leeson, A.; Cornford, S. L.; Hogg, A.; Gilbert, L.; Muir, A. S.; Briggs, K.

2017-12-01

Over the past two decades, there has been an acceleration in the rate of mass losses from the Greenland ice sheet. This acceleration is, in part, attributed to an increasingly negative surface mass balance (SMB), linked to increasing melt water runoff rates due to enhanced surface melting. Understanding the past, present and future evolution in surface melting is central to ongoing monitoring of ice sheet mass balance and, in turn, to building realistic future projections. Currently, regional climate models are commonly used for this purpose, because direct in-situ observations are spatially and temporally sparse due to the logistics and resources required to collect such data. In particular, modelled SMB is used to estimate the extent and magnitude of surface melting, which influences (1) many geodetic mass balance estimates, and (2) snowpack microwave scattering properties. The latter is poorly understood and introduces uncertainty into radar altimeter estimates of ice sheet evolution. Here, we investigate the changes in CryoSat-2 waveforms and elevation measurements caused by the onset of surface melt in the summer months over the ablation zone of the Greenland ice sheet. Specifically, we use CryoSat-2 SARIn mode data acquired between 2011 and 2016, to characterise the effect of high variability in surface melt during this period, and to assess the associated impact on estimates of ice mass balance.

Greenland ice sheet motion insensitive to exceptional meltwater forcing.

PubMed

Tedstone, Andrew J; Nienow, Peter W; Sole, Andrew J; Mair, Douglas W F; Cowton, Thomas R; Bartholomew, Ian D; King, Matt A

2013-12-03

Changes to the dynamics of the Greenland ice sheet can be forced by various mechanisms including surface-melt-induced ice acceleration and oceanic forcing of marine-terminating glaciers. We use observations of ice motion to examine the surface melt-induced dynamic response of a land-terminating outlet glacier in southwest Greenland to the exceptional melting observed in 2012. During summer, meltwater generated on the Greenland ice sheet surface accesses the ice sheet bed, lubricating basal motion and resulting in periods of faster ice flow. However, the net impact of varying meltwater volumes upon seasonal and annual ice flow, and thus sea level rise, remains unclear. We show that two extreme melt events (98.6% of the Greenland ice sheet surface experienced melting on July 12, the most significant melt event since 1889, and 79.2% on July 29) and summer ice sheet runoff ~3.9 σ above the 1958-2011 mean resulted in enhanced summer ice motion relative to the average melt year of 2009. However, despite record summer melting, subsequent reduced winter ice motion resulted in 6% less net annual ice motion in 2012 than in 2009. Our findings suggest that surface melt-induced acceleration of land-terminating regions of the ice sheet will remain insignificant even under extreme melting scenarios.

Basal crevasses and suture zones in the Larsen C Ice Shelf, Antarctica: Implications for ice shelf stability in a warming climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McGrath, Daniel J.

Understanding ice shelf structure and processes is paramount to future predictions of sea level rise, as nearly 75% of the ice flux from the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) passes through these gates. The breakup of an ice shelf removes the longitudinal back stress acting on the grounded inland ice and leads to flow acceleration, dynamic thinning and frontal retreat, processes that can be sustained for more than a decade. Increased ice discharge to the ocean contributes to global sea level rise. This dissertation investigates basal crevasses and suture zones, two key structural components of ice shelves, in order to understand how the structure of an ice shelf influences its stability in a warming climate. Ground penetrating radar, high-resolution satellite imagery and a variety of modeling approaches are utilized to assess these features on the Larsen C Ice Shelf but in a manner that considers their influence on ice shelf stability around the AIS. Basal crevasses are large-scale (~66% of ice thickness and ten's of kms in length) and abundant features that are significant structural weaknesses. The viscoplastic deformation of the ice shelf in response to the perturbed hydrostatic balance leads to the formation of both surface depressions and crevasses, hence weakening the ice shelf further. Basal crevasses increase the local ice-ocean interface by ~30%, thereby increasing basal roughness and altering ice-ocean interactions. Ice-shelf fractures frequently terminate where they encounter suture zones, regions of material heterogeneity that form at the lateral bounds of meteoric inflows to ice shelves. The termination of a 25 km-long rift in the Churchill Peninsula suture zone is investigated and found to contain ~60 m of accreted marine ice. Steady-state basal melting/freezing rates are determined for the ice shelf and applied to a flowline model to examine the along-flow evolution of ice shelf structure. The thickening surface wedge of locally accumulated meteoric ice

Icing flight research: Aerodynamic effects of ice and ice shape documentation with stereo photography

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mikkelsen, K. L.; Mcknight, R. C.; Ranaudo, R. J.; Perkins, P. J., Jr.

1985-01-01

Aircraft icing flight research was performed in natural icing conditions. A data base consisting of icing cloud measurements, ice shapes, and aerodynamic measurements is being developed. During research icing encounters the icing cloud was continuously measured. After the encounter, the ice accretion shapes on the wing were documented with a stereo camera system. The increase in wing section drag was measured with a wake survey probe. The overall aircraft performance loss in terms of lift and drag coefficient changes was obtained by steady level speed/power measurements. Selective deicing of the airframe components was performed to determine their contributions to the total drag increase. Engine out capability in terms of power available was analyzed for the iced aircraft. It was shown that the stereo photography system can be used to document ice shapes in flight and that the wake survey probe can measure increases in wing section drag caused by ice. On one flight, the wing section drag coefficient (c sub d) increased approximately 120 percent over the uniced baseline at an aircraft angle of attack of 6 deg. On another flight, the aircraft darg coefficient (c sub d) increased by 75 percent over the uniced baseline at an aircraft lift coefficient (C sub d) of 0.5.

Icing flight research - Aerodynamic effects of ice and ice shape documentation with stereo photography

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mikkelsen, K. L.; Mcknight, R. C.; Ranaudo, R. J.; Perkins, P. J., Jr.

1985-01-01

Aircraft icing flight research was performed in natural icing conditions. A data base consisting of icing cloud measurements, ice shapes, and aerodynamic measurements is being developed. During research icing encounters the icing cloud was continuously measured. After the encounter, the ice accretion shapes on the wing were documented with a stereo camera system. The increase in wing section drag was measured with a wake survey probe. The overall aircraft performance loss in terms of lift and drag coefficient changes were obtained by steady level speed/power measurements. Selective deicing of the airframe components was performed to determine their contributions to the total drag increase. Engine out capability in terms of power available was analyzed for the iced aircraft. It was shown that the stereo photography system can be used to document ice shapes in flight and that the wake survey probe can measure increases in wing section drag caused by ice. On one flight, the wing section drag coefficient (c sub d) increased approximately 120 percent over the uniced baseline at an aircraft angle of attack of 6 deg. On another flight, the aircraft drag coefficient (c sub d) increased by 75 percent over the uniced baseline at an aircraft lift coefficient (c sub d) of 0.5.

Sea ice roughness: the key for predicting Arctic summer ice albedo

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Landy, J.; Ehn, J. K.; Tsamados, M.; Stroeve, J.; Barber, D. G.

2017-12-01

Although melt ponds on Arctic sea ice evolve in stages, ice with smoother surface topography typically allows the pond water to spread over a wider area, reducing the ice-albedo and accelerating further melt. Building on this theory, we simulated the distribution of meltwater on a range of statistically-derived topographies to develop a quantitative relationship between premelt sea ice surface roughness and summer ice albedo. Our method, previously applied to ICESat observations of the end-of-winter sea ice roughness, could account for 85% of the variance in AVHRR observations of the summer ice-albedo [Landy et al., 2015]. Consequently, an Arctic-wide reduction in sea ice roughness over the ICESat operational period (from 2003 to 2008) explained a drop in ice-albedo that resulted in a 16% increase in solar heat input to the sea ice cover. Here we will review this work and present new research linking pre-melt sea ice surface roughness observations from Cryosat-2 to summer sea ice albedo over the past six years, examining the potential of winter roughness as a significant new source of sea ice predictability. We will further evaluate the possibility for high-resolution (kilometre-scale) forecasts of summer sea ice albedo from waveform-level Cryosat-2 roughness data in the landfast sea ice zone of the Canadian Arctic. Landy, J. C., J. K. Ehn, and D. G. Barber (2015), Albedo feedback enhanced by smoother Arctic sea ice, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 10,714-10,720, doi:10.1002/2015GL066712.

Seismic evidence for complex sedimentary control of Greenland Ice Sheet flow

PubMed Central

Kulessa, Bernd; Hubbard, Alun L.; Booth, Adam D.; Bougamont, Marion; Dow, Christine F.; Doyle, Samuel H.; Christoffersen, Poul; Lindbäck, Katrin; Pettersson, Rickard; Fitzpatrick, Andrew A. W.; Jones, Glenn A.

2017-01-01

The land-terminating margin of the Greenland Ice Sheet has slowed down in recent decades, although the causes and implications for future ice flow are unclear. Explained originally by a self-regulating mechanism where basal slip reduces as drainage evolves from low to high efficiency, recent numerical modeling invokes a sedimentary control of ice sheet flow as an alternative hypothesis. Although both hypotheses can explain the recent slowdown, their respective forecasts of a long-term deceleration versus an acceleration of ice flow are contradictory. We present amplitude-versus-angle seismic data as the first observational test of the alternative hypothesis. We document transient modifications of basal sediment strengths by rapid subglacial drainages of supraglacial lakes, the primary current control on summer ice sheet flow according to our numerical model. Our observations agree with simulations of initial postdrainage sediment weakening and ice flow accelerations, and subsequent sediment restrengthening and ice flow decelerations, and thus confirm the alternative hypothesis. Although simulated melt season acceleration of ice flow due to weakening of subglacial sediments does not currently outweigh winter slowdown forced by self-regulation, they could dominate over the longer term. Subglacial sediments beneath the Greenland Ice Sheet must therefore be mapped and characterized, and a sedimentary control of ice flow must be evaluated against competing self-regulation mechanisms. PMID:28835915

Seismic evidence for complex sedimentary control of Greenland Ice Sheet flow.

PubMed

Kulessa, Bernd; Hubbard, Alun L; Booth, Adam D; Bougamont, Marion; Dow, Christine F; Doyle, Samuel H; Christoffersen, Poul; Lindbäck, Katrin; Pettersson, Rickard; Fitzpatrick, Andrew A W; Jones, Glenn A

2017-08-01

The land-terminating margin of the Greenland Ice Sheet has slowed down in recent decades, although the causes and implications for future ice flow are unclear. Explained originally by a self-regulating mechanism where basal slip reduces as drainage evolves from low to high efficiency, recent numerical modeling invokes a sedimentary control of ice sheet flow as an alternative hypothesis. Although both hypotheses can explain the recent slowdown, their respective forecasts of a long-term deceleration versus an acceleration of ice flow are contradictory. We present amplitude-versus-angle seismic data as the first observational test of the alternative hypothesis. We document transient modifications of basal sediment strengths by rapid subglacial drainages of supraglacial lakes, the primary current control on summer ice sheet flow according to our numerical model. Our observations agree with simulations of initial postdrainage sediment weakening and ice flow accelerations, and subsequent sediment restrengthening and ice flow decelerations, and thus confirm the alternative hypothesis. Although simulated melt season acceleration of ice flow due to weakening of subglacial sediments does not currently outweigh winter slowdown forced by self-regulation, they could dominate over the longer term. Subglacial sediments beneath the Greenland Ice Sheet must therefore be mapped and characterized, and a sedimentary control of ice flow must be evaluated against competing self-regulation mechanisms.

Reemergence of sea ice cover anomalies and the role of the sea ice-albedo feedback in CCSM simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deweaver, E. T.

2008-12-01

The dramatic sea ice decline of 2007 and lack of recovery in 2008 raise the question of a "tipping point" for Arctic sea ice, beyond which the transition to a seasonal sea ice state becomes abrupt and irreversible. The tipping point is essentially a "memory catastrophe", in which a dramatic loss of sea ice in one summer is "remembered" in reduced ice thickness over the winter season and leads to a comparably dramatic loss the following summer. The dominant contributor to this memory is presumably the sea ice - albedo feedback (SIAF), in which excess insolation absorbed due to low summer ice cover leads to a shorter ice growth season and hence thinner ice. While these dynamics are clearly important, they are difficult to quantify given the lack of long-term observations in the Arctic and the suddenness of the recent loss. Alternatively, we attempt to quantify the contribution of the SIAF to the year-to-year memory of sea ice cover anomalies in simulations of the NCAR Community Climate System Model (CCSM) under 20th century conditions. Lagged autocorrelation plots of sea ice area anomalies show that anomalies in one year tend to "reemerge" in the following year. Further experiments using a slab ocean model (SOM) are used to assess the contribution of oceanic processes to the year-to-year reemergence. This contribution is substantial, particularly in the winter season, and includes memory due to the standard mixed layer reemergence mechanism and low-frequency ocean heat transport anomalies. The contribution of the SIAF to persistence in the SOM experiment is determined through additional experiments in which the SIAF is disabled by fixing surface albedo to its climatological value regardless of sea ice concentration anomalies. SIAF causes a 50% increase in the magnitude of the anomalies but a relatively small increase in their persistence. Persistence is not dramatically increased because the enhancement of shortwave flux anomalies by SIAF is compensated by stronger

Marine ice regulates the future stability of a large Antarctic ice shelf

PubMed Central

Kulessa, Bernd; Jansen, Daniela; Luckman, Adrian J.; King, Edward C.; Sammonds, Peter R.

2014-01-01

The collapses of the Larsen A and B ice shelves on the Antarctic Peninsula in 1995 and 2002 confirm the impact of southward-propagating climate warming in this region. Recent mass and dynamic changes of Larsen B’s southern neighbour Larsen C, the fourth largest ice shelf in Antarctica, may herald a similar instability. Here, using a validated ice-shelf model run in diagnostic mode, constrained by satellite and in situ geophysical data, we identify the nature of this potential instability. We demonstrate that the present-day spatial distribution and orientation of the principal stresses within Larsen C ice shelf are akin to those within pre-collapse Larsen B. When Larsen B’s stabilizing frontal portion was lost in 1995, the unstable remaining shelf accelerated, crumbled and ultimately collapsed. We hypothesize that Larsen C ice shelf may suffer a similar fate if it were not stabilized by warm and mechanically soft marine ice, entrained within narrow suture zones. PMID:24751641

Association of stressful life events with accelerated bone loss in older men: the Osteoporotic Fractures in Men (MrOS) Study

PubMed Central

Fink, Howard A.; Kuskowski, Michael A.; Cauley, Jane A.; Taylor, Brent C.; Schousboe, John T.; Cawthon, Peggy M.; Ensrud, Kristine E.

2015-01-01

Purpose/Introduction Prior studies suggest that stressful life events may increase adverse health outcomes, including falls and possibly fractures. The current study builds on these findings and examines whether stressful life events are associated with increased bone loss. Methods 4388 men aged ≥65 years in the Osteoporotic Fractures in Men study completed total hip bone mineral density (BMD) measures at baseline and visit 2, approximately 4.6 years later, and self-reported stressful life events data mid-way between baseline and visit 2, and at visit 2. We used linear regression to model the association of stressful life events with concurrent annualized total hip BMD loss, and log binomial regression or Poisson regression to model risk of concurrent accelerated BMD loss (>1 SD more than mean annualized change). Results 75.3% of men reported ≥1 type of stressful life event, including 43.3% with ≥2 types of stressful life events. Mean annualized BMD loss was −0.36% (SD 0.88) and 13.9% of men were categorized with accelerated BMD loss (about 5.7% or more total loss). Rate of annualized BMD loss increased with the number of types of stressful life events after adjustment for age (p<0.001), but not after multivariable adjustment (p=0.07). Multivariable-adjusted risk of accelerated BMD loss increased with the number of types of stressful life events (RR, 1.10 [95% CI, 1.04–1.16]) per increase of 1 type of stressful life event). Fracture risk was not significantly different between stressful life event-accelerated bone loss subgroups (p=0.08). Conclusions In these older men, stressful life events were associated with a small, dose-related increase in risk of concurrent accelerated hip bone loss. Low frequency of fractures limited assessment of whether rapid bone loss mediates any association of stressful life events with incident fractures. Future studies are needed to confirm these findings and to investigate the mechanism that may underlie this association

CO2 (dry ice) cleaning system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barnett, Donald M.

1995-01-01

Tomco Equipment Company has participated in the dry ice (solid carbon dioxide, CO2) cleaning industry for over ten years as a pioneer in the manufacturer of high density, dry ice cleaning pellet production equipment. For over four years Tomco high density pelletizers have been available to the dry ice cleaning industry. Approximately one year ago Tomco introduced the DI-250, a new dry ice blast unit making Tomco a single source supplier for sublimable media, particle blast, cleaning systems. This new blast unit is an all pneumatic, single discharge hose device. It meters the insertion of 1/8 inch diameter (or smaller), high density, dry ice pellets into a high pressure, propellant gas stream. The dry ice and propellant streams are controlled and mixed from the blast cabinet. From there the mixture is transported to the nozzle where the pellets are accelerated to an appropriate blasting velocity. When directed to impact upon a target area, these dry ice pellets have sufficient energy to effectively remove most surface coatings through dry, abrasive contact. The meta-stable, dry ice pellets used for CO2 cleaning, while labeled 'high density,' are less dense than alternate, abrasive, particle blast media. In addition, after contacting the target surface, they return to their equilibrium condition: a superheated gas state. Most currently used grit blasting media are silicon dioxide based, which possess a sharp tetrahedral molecular structure. Silicon dioxide crystal structures will always produce smaller sharp-edged replicas of the original crystal upon fracture. Larger, softer dry ice pellets do not share the same sharp-edged crystalline structures as their non-sublimable counterparts when broken. In fact, upon contact with the target surface, dry ice pellets will plastically deform and break apart. As such, dry ice cleaning is less harmful to sensitive substrates, workers and the environment than chemical or abrasive cleaning systems. Dry ice cleaning system

Accelerated warming of the Southern Ocean and its impacts on the hydrological cycle and sea ice.

PubMed

Liu, Jiping; Curry, Judith A

2010-08-24

The observed sea surface temperature in the Southern Ocean shows a substantial warming trend for the second half of the 20th century. Associated with the warming, there has been an enhanced atmospheric hydrological cycle in the Southern Ocean that results in an increase of the Antarctic sea ice for the past three decades through the reduced upward ocean heat transport and increased snowfall. The simulated sea surface temperature variability from two global coupled climate models for the second half of the 20th century is dominated by natural internal variability associated with the Antarctic Oscillation, suggesting that the models' internal variability is too strong, leading to a response to anthropogenic forcing that is too weak. With increased loading of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere through the 21st century, the models show an accelerated warming in the Southern Ocean, and indicate that anthropogenic forcing exceeds natural internal variability. The increased heating from below (ocean) and above (atmosphere) and increased liquid precipitation associated with the enhanced hydrological cycle results in a projected decline of the Antarctic sea ice.

Ice Shelves and Landfast Ice on the Antarctic Perimeter: Revised Scope of Work

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Abdalati, Waleed (Technical Monitor); Scambos, Ted

2004-01-01

Ice shelves respond quickly and profoundly to a warming climate. Within a decade after mean summertime temperature reaches approximately 0 deg C and persistent melt ponding is observed, a rapid retreat and disintegration begins. This link was documented for ice shelves in the Antarctic Peninsula region (the Larsen 'A', B', and Wilkins Ice shelves) in the results of a previous grant under ADRO-1. Modeling of shelf ice flow and the effects of meltwater indicated that melt ponding accelerates shelf breakup by increasing fracturing. The ADRO-2 funding (topic of this report) supported further inquiry into the evolution of ice shelves under warming conditions, and the post-breakup effects on their feeder glaciers. Also, this grant considered fast ice and sea ice characteristics, to the extent that they provide information regarding shelf stability. A major component of this work was in the form of NSIDC image data support and in situ sea ice research on the Aurora Australis 'ARISE' cruise of September 9 2003 through October 28 2003.

Rapid Collapse of the Vavilov Ice Cap, Russian High Arctic.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Willis, M. J.; Zheng, W.; Durkin, W. J., IV; Pritchard, M. E.; Ramage, J. M.; Dowdeswell, J. A.; Benham, T. J.; Glazovsky, A.; Macheret, Y.; Porter, C. C.

2016-12-01

Cold based ice caps and glaciers are thought to respond slowly to environmental changes. As sea ice cover evolves in the Arctic, a feedback process alters air-temperatures and precipitation patterns across the region. During the last decades of the 20th century the land-terminating western margin of the Vavilov Ice Cap, on October Revolution Island of the Severnaya Zemlya Archipelago, advanced slowly westwards. The advance was driven by precipitation changes that occurred about half a millennia ago. InSAR shows that in 1996 the margin sustained ice speeds of around 20 m/yr. By 2000 the ice front had moved a short distance into the Kara Sea and had transitioned to a marine-terminating front, although an ice apron around the ice margin indicates the ice there was still frozen to the bed and there is no evidence of calving in satellite imagery. In 2013 ice motions near the terminus had accelerated to around 1 m/day. By late 2015 the main trunk of the newly activated outlet glacier attained speeds of 25 m/day and the inland portion of the ice cap thinned at rates of more than 0.3 m/day. The acceleration of the outlet glacier occurred due to its advance over weak, water-saturated marine sediments that provide little resistance to ice flow, and to the removal of lateral resistive stresses as the glacier advanced out into an open embayment. Longitudinal stretching at the front forces an increase in the surface slope upstream. Rapid rates of motion inland generate frictional melt at the bed, possibly aided by cryohydrological warming. Large areas of the interior of the Vavilov ice cap are now below the equilibrium line and the grounded portion of the ice cap is losing mass at a rate of 4.5 km3 w.e./year. The changes at the Vavilov are likely irrecoverable in a warming climate due to a reduction in the accumulation area of the ice cap. Increased precipitation drove the advance, which accelerated due to the presence of soft sediments. The acceleration lowered the elevation

IceT users' guide and reference.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Moreland, Kenneth D.

2011-01-01

The Image Composition Engine for Tiles (IceT) is a high-performance sort-last parallel rendering library. In addition to providing accelerated rendering for a standard display, IceT provides the unique ability to generate images for tiled displays. The overall resolution of the display may be several times larger than any viewport that may be rendered by a single machine. This document is an overview of the user interface to IceT.

Accelerated ice shelf rifting and retreat at Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jeong, Seongsu; Howat, Ian M.; Bassis, Jeremy N.

2016-11-01

Pine Island Glacier has undergone several major iceberg calving events over the past decades. These typically occurred when a rift at the heavily fractured shear margin propagated across the width of the ice shelf. This type of calving is common on polar ice shelves, with no clear connection to ocean-ice dynamic forcing. In contrast, we report on the recent development of multiple rifts initiating from basal crevasses in the center of the ice shelf, resulted in calving further upglacier than previously observed. Coincident with rift formation was the sudden disintegration of the ice mélange that filled the northern shear margin, resulting in ice sheet detachment from this margin. Examination of ice velocity suggests that this internal rifting resulted from the combination of a change in ice shelf stress regime caused by disintegration of the mélange and intensified melting within basal crevasses, both of which may be linked to ocean forcing.

Breaking Ice: Fracture Processes in Floating Ice on Earth and Elsewhere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scambos, T. A.

2016-12-01

Rapid, intense fracturing events in the ice shelves of the Antarctic Peninsula reveal a set of processes that were not fully appreciated prior to the series of ice shelf break-ups observed in the late 1990s and early 2000s. A series of studies have uncovered a fascinating array of relationships between climate, ocean, and ice: intense widespread hydrofracture; repetitive hydrofracture induced by ice plate bending; the ability for sub-surface flooded firn to support hydrofracture; potential triggering by long-period wave action; accelerated fracturing by trapped tsunamic waves; iceberg disintegration, and a remarkable ice rebound process from lake drainage that resembles runaway nuclear fission. The events and subsequent studies have shown that rapid regional warming in ice shelf areas leads to catastrophic changes in a previously stable ice mass. More typical fracturing of thick ice plates is a natural consequence of ice flow in a complex geographic setting, i.e., it is induced by shear and divergence of spreading plate flow around obstacles. While these are not a result of climate or ocean change, weather and ocean processes may impact the exact timing of final separation of an iceberg from a shelf. Taking these terrestrial perspectives to other ice-covered ocean worlds, cautiously, provides an observational framework for interpreting features on Europa and Enceladus.

The Response of Ice Sheets to Climate Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Snow, K.; Goldberg, D. N.; Holland, P. R.; Jordan, J. R.; Arthern, R. J.; Jenkins, A.

2017-12-01

West Antarctic Ice Sheet loss is a significant contributor to sea level rise. While the ice loss is thought to be triggered by fluctuations in oceanic heat at the ice shelf bases, ice sheet response to ocean variability remains poorly understood. Using a synchronously coupled ice-ocean model permitting grounding line migration, this study evaluates the response of an ice sheet to periodic variations in ocean forcing. Resulting oscillations in grounded ice volume amplitude is shown to grow as a nonlinear function of ocean forcing period. This implies that slower oscillations in climatic forcing are disproportionately important to ice sheets. The ice shelf residence time offers a critical time scale, above which the ice response amplitude is a linear function of ocean forcing period and below which it is quadratic. These results highlight the sensitivity of West Antarctic ice streams to perturbations in heat fluxes occurring at decadal time scales.

Sea ice breakup and marine melt of a retreating tidewater outlet glacier in northeast Greenland (81°N).

PubMed

Bendtsen, Jørgen; Mortensen, John; Lennert, Kunuk; K Ehn, Jens; Boone, Wieter; Galindo, Virginie; Hu, Yu-Bin; Dmitrenko, Igor A; Kirillov, Sergei A; Kjeldsen, Kristian K; Kristoffersen, Yngve; G Barber, David; Rysgaard, Søren

2017-07-10

Rising temperatures in the Arctic cause accelerated mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet and reduced sea ice cover. Tidewater outlet glaciers represent direct connections between glaciers and the ocean where melt rates at the ice-ocean interface are influenced by ocean temperature and circulation. However, few measurements exist near outlet glaciers from the northern coast towards the Arctic Ocean that has remained nearly permanently ice covered. Here we present hydrographic measurements along the terminus of a major retreating tidewater outlet glacier from Flade Isblink Ice Cap. We show that the region is characterized by a relatively large change of the seasonal freshwater content, corresponding to ~2 m of freshwater, and that solar heating during the short open water period results in surface layer temperatures above 1 °C. Observations of temperature and salinity supported that the outlet glacier is a floating ice shelf with near-glacial subsurface temperatures at the freezing point. Melting from the surface layer significantly influenced the ice foot morphology of the glacier terminus. Hence, melting of the tidewater outlet glacier was found to be critically dependent on the retreat of sea ice adjacent to the terminus and the duration of open water.

A Mathematical Model of Melt Lake Development on an Ice Shelf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buzzard, S. C.; Feltham, D. L.; Flocco, D.

2018-02-01

The accumulation of surface meltwater on ice shelves can lead to the formation of melt lakes. Melt lakes have been implicated in ice shelf collapse; Antarctica's Larsen B Ice Shelf was observed to have a large amount of surface melt lakes present preceding its collapse in 2002. Such collapse can affect ocean circulation and temperature, cause habitat loss and contribute to sea level rise through the acceleration of tributary glaciers. We present a mathematical model of a surface melt lake on an idealized ice shelf. The model incorporates a calculation of the ice shelf surface energy balance, heat transfer through the firn, the production and percolation of meltwater into the firn, the formation of ice lenses, and the development and refreezing of surface melt lakes. The model is applied to the Larsen C Ice Shelf, where melt lakes have been observed. This region has warmed several times the global average over the last century and the Larsen C firn layer could become saturated with meltwater by the end of the century. When forced with weather station data, our model produces surface melting, meltwater accumulation, and melt lake development consistent with observations. We examine the sensitivity of lake formation to uncertain parameters and provide evidence of the importance of processes such as lateral meltwater transport. We conclude that melt lakes impact surface melt and firn density and warrant inclusion in dynamic-thermodynamic models of ice shelf evolution within climate models, of which our model could form the basis for the thermodynamic component.

Insights into Spatial Sensitivities of Ice Mass Response to Environmental Change from the SeaRISE Ice Sheet Modeling Project I: Antarctica

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nowicki, Sophie; Bindschadler, Robert A.; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Aschwanden, Andy; Bueler, Ed; Choi, Hyengu; Fastook, Jim; Granzow, Glen; Greve, Ralf; Gutowski, Gail;

Ice Crystal Icing Engine Testing in the NASA Glenn Research Center's Propulsion Systems Laboratory: Altitude Investigation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oliver, Michael J.

2014-01-01

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) conducted a full scale ice crystal icing turbofan engine test using an obsolete Allied Signal ALF502-R5 engine in the Propulsion Systems Laboratory (PSL) at NASA Glenn Research Center. The test article used was the exact engine that experienced a loss of power event after the ingestion of ice crystals while operating at high altitude during a 1997 Honeywell flight test campaign investigating the turbofan engine ice crystal icing phenomena. The test plan included test points conducted at the known flight test campaign field event pressure altitude and at various pressure altitudes ranging from low to high throughout the engine operating envelope. The test article experienced a loss of power event at each of the altitudes tested. For each pressure altitude test point conducted the ambient static temperature was predicted using a NASA engine icing risk computer model for the given ambient static pressure while maintaining the engine speed.

Accelerated bone loss in older men: Effects on bone microarchitecture and strength.

PubMed

Cauley, J A; Burghardt, A J; Harrison, S L; Cawthon, P M; Schwartz, A V; Connor, E Barrett; Ensrud, Kristine E; Langsetmo, Lisa; Majumdar, S; Orwoll, E

2018-05-11

Accelerated bone loss (ABL) shown on routine dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) may be accompanied by microarchitectural changes, increased cortical porosity and lower bone strength. To test this hypothesis, we performed a cross-sectional study and used high resolution peripheral quantitative computed tomography (HR-pQCT) scans (SCANCO, Inc., Switzerland) to measure estimated bone strength and microarchitecture in the distal radius and distal and diaphyseal tibia. We studied 1628 men who attended the Year 14 exam of the Osteoporotic Fractures in Men (MrOS) study. We retrospectively characterized areal (a) bone mineral density (BMD) change from the Year 7 to Year 14 exam in 3 categories: "accelerated" >10% loss at either the total hip or femoral neck, (N = 299, 18.4%); "expected" loss, <10%, (N = 1061, 65.2%) and "maintained" BMD, ≥0%, (N = 268, 16.5%). The ABL cutoff was a safety alert established for MrOS. We used regression models to calculate adjusted mean HR-pQCT parameters in men with ABL, expected loss or maintained BMD. Men who experienced ABL were older and had a lower body mass index and aBMD and experienced greater weight loss compared to other men. Total volumetric BMD and trabecular and cortical volumetric BMD were lower in men with ABL compared to the expected or maintained group. Men with ABL had significantly lower trabecular bone volume fraction (BV/TV), fewer trabeculae and greater trabecular separation at both the distal radius and tibia than men with expected loss or who maintained aBMD, all p trend <0.001. Men with ABL had lower cortical thickness and lower estimated bone strength but there was no difference in cortical porosity except at the tibia diaphyseal site In summary, men with ABL have lower estimated bone strength, poorer trabecular microarchitecture and thinner cortices than men without ABL but have similar cortical porosity. These impairments may lead to an increased risk of fracture. This article is protected by

Volcano-ice age link discounted

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kerr, R.A.

1996-05-10

Speculation that huge volcanic eruptions may have caused an immediate `volcanic winter` that devastated early humans and accelerated a slide into the Ice Age. However, further information from the Greenland ice sheet about the Toba errumption on the island of Sumatra 70,000 years ago, seems to indicate that such volcanic actions wasn`t a major climatic catalyst. This article discusses the evidence and further possibilities.

Improving Surface Mass Balance Over Ice Sheets and Snow Depth on Sea Ice

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koenig, Lora Suzanne; Box, Jason; Kurtz, Nathan

2013-01-01

Surface mass balance (SMB) over ice sheets and snow on sea ice (SOSI) are important components of the cryosphere. Large knowledge gaps remain in scientists' abilities to monitor SMB and SOSI, including insufficient measurements and difficulties with satellite retrievals. On ice sheets, snow accumulation is the sole mass gain to SMB, and meltwater runoff can be the dominant single loss factor in extremely warm years such as 2012. SOSI affects the growth and melt cycle of the Earth's polar sea ice cover. The summer of 2012 saw the largest satellite-recorded melt area over the Greenland ice sheet and the smallest satellite-recorded Arctic sea ice extent, making this meeting both timely and relevant.

Enhanced ice sheet growth in Eurasia owing to adjacent ice-dammed lakes.

PubMed

Krinner, G; Mangerud, J; Jakobsson, M; Crucifix, M; Ritz, C; Svendsen, J I

2004-01-29

Large proglacial lakes cool regional summer climate because of their large heat capacity, and have been shown to modify precipitation through mesoscale atmospheric feedbacks, as in the case of Lake Agassiz. Several large ice-dammed lakes, with a combined area twice that of the Caspian Sea, were formed in northern Eurasia about 90,000 years ago, during the last glacial period when an ice sheet centred over the Barents and Kara seas blocked the large northbound Russian rivers. Here we present high-resolution simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model that explicitly simulates the surface mass balance of the ice sheet. We show that the main influence of the Eurasian proglacial lakes was a significant reduction of ice sheet melting at the southern margin of the Barents-Kara ice sheet through strong regional summer cooling over large parts of Russia. In our simulations, the summer melt reduction clearly outweighs lake-induced decreases in moisture and hence snowfall, such as has been reported earlier for Lake Agassiz. We conclude that the summer cooling mechanism from proglacial lakes accelerated ice sheet growth and delayed ice sheet decay in Eurasia and probably also in North America.

QSAR Accelerated Discovery of Potent Ice Recrystallization Inhibitors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Briard, Jennie G.; Fernandez, Michael; de Luna, Phil; Woo, Tom. K.; Ben, Robert N.

2016-05-01

Ice recrystallization is the main contributor to cell damage and death during the cryopreservation of cells and tissues. Over the past five years, many small carbohydrate-based molecules were identified as ice recrystallization inhibitors and several were shown to reduce cryoinjury during the cryopreservation of red blood cells (RBCs) and hematopoietic stems cells (HSCs). Unfortunately, clear structure-activity relationships have not been identified impeding the rational design of future compounds possessing ice recrystallization inhibition (IRI) activity. A set of 124 previously synthesized compounds with known IRI activities were used to calibrate 3D-QSAR classification models using GRid INdependent Descriptors (GRIND) derived from DFT level quantum mechanical calculations. Partial least squares (PLS) model was calibrated with 70% of the data set which successfully identified 80% of the IRI active compounds with a precision of 0.8. This model exhibited good performance in screening the remaining 30% of the data set with 70% of active additives successfully recovered with a precision of ~0.7 and specificity of 0.8. The model was further applied to screen a new library of aryl-alditol molecules which were then experimentally synthesized and tested with a success rate of 82%. Presented is the first computer-aided high-throughput experimental screening for novel IRI active compounds.

QSAR Accelerated Discovery of Potent Ice Recrystallization Inhibitors

PubMed Central

Briard, Jennie G.; Fernandez, Michael; De Luna, Phil; Woo, Tom. K.; Ben, Robert N.

2016-01-01

Ice recrystallization is the main contributor to cell damage and death during the cryopreservation of cells and tissues. Over the past five years, many small carbohydrate-based molecules were identified as ice recrystallization inhibitors and several were shown to reduce cryoinjury during the cryopreservation of red blood cells (RBCs) and hematopoietic stems cells (HSCs). Unfortunately, clear structure-activity relationships have not been identified impeding the rational design of future compounds possessing ice recrystallization inhibition (IRI) activity. A set of 124 previously synthesized compounds with known IRI activities were used to calibrate 3D-QSAR classification models using GRid INdependent Descriptors (GRIND) derived from DFT level quantum mechanical calculations. Partial least squares (PLS) model was calibrated with 70% of the data set which successfully identified 80% of the IRI active compounds with a precision of 0.8. This model exhibited good performance in screening the remaining 30% of the data set with 70% of active additives successfully recovered with a precision of ~0.7 and specificity of 0.8. The model was further applied to screen a new library of aryl-alditol molecules which were then experimentally synthesized and tested with a success rate of 82%. Presented is the first computer-aided high-throughput experimental screening for novel IRI active compounds. PMID:27216585

QSAR Accelerated Discovery of Potent Ice Recrystallization Inhibitors.

PubMed

Briard, Jennie G; Fernandez, Michael; De Luna, Phil; Woo, Tom K; Ben, Robert N

2016-05-24

Ice recrystallization is the main contributor to cell damage and death during the cryopreservation of cells and tissues. Over the past five years, many small carbohydrate-based molecules were identified as ice recrystallization inhibitors and several were shown to reduce cryoinjury during the cryopreservation of red blood cells (RBCs) and hematopoietic stems cells (HSCs). Unfortunately, clear structure-activity relationships have not been identified impeding the rational design of future compounds possessing ice recrystallization inhibition (IRI) activity. A set of 124 previously synthesized compounds with known IRI activities were used to calibrate 3D-QSAR classification models using GRid INdependent Descriptors (GRIND) derived from DFT level quantum mechanical calculations. Partial least squares (PLS) model was calibrated with 70% of the data set which successfully identified 80% of the IRI active compounds with a precision of 0.8. This model exhibited good performance in screening the remaining 30% of the data set with 70% of active additives successfully recovered with a precision of ~0.7 and specificity of 0.8. The model was further applied to screen a new library of aryl-alditol molecules which were then experimentally synthesized and tested with a success rate of 82%. Presented is the first computer-aided high-throughput experimental screening for novel IRI active compounds.

Comparative Study of Three Data Assimilation Methods for Ice Sheet Model Initialisation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mosbeux, Cyrille; Gillet-Chaulet, Fabien; Gagliardini, Olivier

2015-04-01

The current global warming has direct consequences on ice-sheet mass loss contributing to sea level rise. This loss is generally driven by an acceleration of some coastal outlet glaciers and reproducing these mechanisms is one of the major issues in ice-sheet and ice flow modelling. The construction of an initial state, as close as possible to current observations, is required as a prerequisite before producing any reliable projection of the evolution of ice-sheets. For this step, inverse methods are often used to infer badly known or unknown parameters. For instance, the adjoint inverse method has been implemented and applied with success by different authors in different ice flow models in order to infer the basal drag [ Schafer et al., 2012; Gillet-chauletet al., 2012; Morlighem et al., 2010]. Others data fields, such as ice surface and bedrock topography, are easily measurable with more or less uncertainty but only locally along tracks and interpolated on finer model grid. All these approximations lead to errors on the data elevation model and give rise to an ill-posed problem inducing non-physical anomalies in flux divergence [Seroussi et al, 2011]. A solution to dissipate these divergences of flux is to conduct a surface relaxation step at the expense of the accuracy of the modelled surface [Gillet-Chaulet et al., 2012]. Other solutions, based on the inversion of ice thickness and basal drag were proposed [Perego et al., 2014; Pralong & Gudmundsson, 2011]. In this study, we create a twin experiment to compare three different assimilation algorithms based on inverse methods and nudging to constrain the bedrock friction and the bedrock elevation: (i) cyclic inversion of friction parameter and bedrock topography using adjoint method, (ii) cycles coupling inversion of friction parameter using adjoint method and nudging of bedrock topography, (iii) one step inversion of both parameters with adjoint method. The three methods show a clear improvement in parameters

Sub-ice-shelf sediments record history of twentieth-century retreat of Pine Island Glacier [Sub-ice shelf sediments record 20 th century retreat history of Pine Island Glacier

DOE PAGES

Smith, J. A.; Andersen, T. J.; Shortt, M.; ...

2016-11-23

The West Antarctic Ice Sheet is one of the largest potential sources of rising sea levels. Over the past 40 years, glaciers flowing into the Amundsen Sea sector of the ice sheet have thinned at an accelerating rate, and several numerical models suggest that unstable and irreversible retreat of the grounding line—which marks the boundary between grounded ice and floating ice shelf—is underway. Understanding this recent retreat requires a detailed knowledge of grounding-line history, but the locations of the grounding line before the advent of satellite monitoring in the 1990s are poorly dated. In particular, a history of grounding-line retreatmore » is required to understand the relative roles of contemporaneous ocean-forced change and of ongoing glacier response to an earlier perturbation in driving ice-sheet loss. Here we show that the present thinning and retreat of Pine Island Glacier in West Antarctica is part of a climatically forced trend that was triggered in the 1940s. Our conclusions arise from analysis of sediment cores recovered beneath the floating Pine Island Glacier ice shelf, and constrain the date at which the grounding line retreated from a prominent seafloor ridge. We find that incursion of marine water beyond the crest of this ridge, forming an ocean cavity beneath the ice shelf, occurred in 1945 (±12 years); final ungrounding of the ice shelf from the ridge occurred in 1970 (±4 years). The initial opening of this ocean cavity followed a period of strong warming of West Antarctica, associated with El Niño activity. Furthermore our results suggest that, even when climate forcing weakened, ice-sheet retreat continued.« less

Sub-ice-shelf sediments record history of twentieth-century retreat of Pine Island Glacier [Sub-ice shelf sediments record 20 th century retreat history of Pine Island Glacier

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Smith, J. A.; Andersen, T. J.; Shortt, M.

The West Antarctic Ice Sheet is one of the largest potential sources of rising sea levels. Over the past 40 years, glaciers flowing into the Amundsen Sea sector of the ice sheet have thinned at an accelerating rate, and several numerical models suggest that unstable and irreversible retreat of the grounding line—which marks the boundary between grounded ice and floating ice shelf—is underway. Understanding this recent retreat requires a detailed knowledge of grounding-line history, but the locations of the grounding line before the advent of satellite monitoring in the 1990s are poorly dated. In particular, a history of grounding-line retreatmore » is required to understand the relative roles of contemporaneous ocean-forced change and of ongoing glacier response to an earlier perturbation in driving ice-sheet loss. Here we show that the present thinning and retreat of Pine Island Glacier in West Antarctica is part of a climatically forced trend that was triggered in the 1940s. Our conclusions arise from analysis of sediment cores recovered beneath the floating Pine Island Glacier ice shelf, and constrain the date at which the grounding line retreated from a prominent seafloor ridge. We find that incursion of marine water beyond the crest of this ridge, forming an ocean cavity beneath the ice shelf, occurred in 1945 (±12 years); final ungrounding of the ice shelf from the ridge occurred in 1970 (±4 years). The initial opening of this ocean cavity followed a period of strong warming of West Antarctica, associated with El Niño activity. Furthermore our results suggest that, even when climate forcing weakened, ice-sheet retreat continued.« less

Challenges for understanding Antarctic surface hydrology and ice-shelf stability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kingslake, J.; Bell, R. E.; Banwell, A. F.; Boghosian, A.; Spergel, J.; Trusel, L. D.

2017-12-01

It is widely hypothesized that surface meltwater can contribute to ice mass loss in Antarctica through its impact on ice-shelf stability. Meltwater potentially expedites ice-shelf calving by flowing into and enlarging existing crevasses, and could even trigger ice-shelf disintegration via stresses generated by melt ponds. When ice shelves collapse, the adjacent grounded ice accelerates and thins, which contributes to sea-level rise. How these mechanisms mediate the interactions between the atmosphere, the ocean and the ice sheet is the subject of long-standing research efforts. The drainage of water across the surface of the Antarctic Ice Sheet and its ice shelves is beginning to be recognized as another important aspect of the system. Recent studies have revealed that surface meltwater drainage is more widespread than previously thought and that surface hydrological systems in Antarctica may expand and proliferate this century. Contrasting hypotheses regarding the impact of the proliferation of drainage systems on ice-shelf stability have emerged. Surface drainage could deliver meltwater to vulnerable area or export meltwater from ice shelves entirely. Which behavior dominates may have a large impact on the future response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to atmospheric warming. We will discuss these recent discoveries and hypotheses, as well as new detailed studies of specific areas where hydrological systems are well developed, such as Amery and Nimrod Ice Shelves. We will highlight analogies that can be drawn with Greenlandic (near-)surface hydrology and, crucially, where hydrological systems on the two ice sheets are very different, leading to potentially important gaps in our understanding. Finally, we will look ahead to the key questions that we argue will need to be if we are to determine the role Antarctic surface hydrology could play in the future of the ice sheet. These include: Where does meltwater pond today and how will this change this century? What

Disruption of the RP-MDM2-p53 pathway accelerates APC loss-induced colorectal tumorigenesis.

PubMed

Liu, S; Tackmann, N R; Yang, J; Zhang, Y

2017-03-01

Inactivation of the adenomatous polyposis coli (APC) tumor suppressor is frequently found in colorectal cancer. Loss of APC function results in deregulation of the Wnt/β-catenin signaling pathway causing overexpression of the c-MYC oncogene. In lymphoma, both p19ARF and ribosomal proteins RPL11 and RPL5 respond to c-MYC activation to induce p53. Their role in c-MYC-driven colorectal carcinogenesis is unclear, as p19ARF deletion does not accelerate APC loss-triggered intestinal tumorigenesis. To determine the contribution of the ribosomal protein (RP)-murine double minute 2 (MDM2)-p53 pathway to APC loss-induced tumorigenesis, we crossed mice bearing MDM2 C305F mutation, which disrupts RPL11- and RPL5-MDM2 binding, with Apc min/+ mice, which are prone to intestinal tumor formation. Interestingly, loss of RP-MDM2 binding significantly accelerated colorectal tumor formation while having no discernable effect on small intestinal tumor formation. Mechanistically, APC loss leads to overexpression of c-MYC, RPL11 and RPL5 in mouse colonic tumor cells irrespective of MDM2 C305F mutation. However, notable p53 stabilization and activation were observed only in Apc min/+ ;Mdm2 +/+ but not Apc min/+ ;Mdm2 C305F/C305F colon tumors. These data establish that the RP-MDM2-p53 pathway, in contrast to the p19ARF-MDM2-p53 pathway, is a critical mediator of colorectal tumorigenesis following APC loss.

Precipitation Impacts of a Shrinking Arctic Sea Ice Cover

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stroeve, J. C.; Frei, A.; Gong, G.; Ghatak, D.; Robinson, D. A.; Kindig, D.

2009-12-01

Since the beginning of the modern satellite record in October 1978, the extent of Arctic sea ice has declined in all months, with the strongest downward trend at the end of the melt season in September. Recently the September trends have accelerated. Through 2001, the extent of September sea ice was decreasing at a rate of -7 per cent per decade. By 2006, the rate of decrease had risen to -8.9 per cent per decade. In September 2007, Arctic sea ice extent fell to its lowest level recorded, 23 per cent below the previous record set in 2005, boosting the downward trend to -10.7 per cent per decade. Ice extent in September 2008 was the second lowest in the satellite record. Including 2008, the trend in September sea ice extent stands at -11.8 percent per decade. Compared to the 1970s, September ice extent has retreated by 40 per cent. Summer 2009 looks to repeat the anomalously low ice conditions that characterized the last couple of years. Scientists have long expected that a shrinking Arctic sea ice cover will lead to strong warming of the overlying atmosphere, and as a result, affect atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns. Recent results show clear evidence of Arctic warming linked to declining ice extent, yet observational evidence for responses of atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns is just beginning to emerge. Rising air temperatures should lead to an increase in the moisture holding capacity of the atmosphere, with the potential to impact autumn precipitation. Although climate models predict a hemispheric wide decrease in snow cover as atmospheric concentrations of GHGs increase, increased precipitation, particular in autumn and winter may result as the Arctic transitions towards a seasonally ice free state. In this study we use atmospheric reanalysis data and a cyclone tracking algorithm to investigate the influence of recent extreme ice loss years on precipitation patterns in the Arctic and the Northern Hemisphere. Results show

The De-Icing Comparison Experiment (D-ICE): A campaign for improving data retention rates of radiometric measurements under icing conditions in cold regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cox, C. J.; Morris, S. M.

2017-12-01

Longwave and shortwave radiative fluxes are fundamental quantities regularly observed globally using broadband radiometers. In cold climates, frost, rime, snow and ice (collectively, "icing") frequently builds up on sensor windows, contaminating measurements. Since icing occurs under particular meteorological conditions, associated data losses constitutes a climatological bias. Furthermore, the signal caused by ice is difficult to distinguish from that of clouds, hampering efforts to identify contaminated from real data in post-processing. Because of the sensitivity of radiometers to internal temperature instabilities, there are limitations to using heat as a de-icing method. The magnitude of this problem is indicated by the large number of research institutions and commercial vendors that have developed various de-icing strategies. The D-ICE campaign has been designed to bring together a large number of currently available systems to quantitatively evaluate and compare ice-migration strategies and also to characterize the potentially adverse effects of the techniques themselves. For D-ICE, a variety of automated approaches making use of ventilation, heating, modified housings and alcohol spray are being evaluated alongside standard units operating with only the regularly scheduled manual cleaning by human operators at the NOAA Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) station in Utqiaġvik (formerly Barrow), Alaska. Previous experience within the BSRN community suggests that aspiration of ambient air alone may be sufficient to maintain ice-free radiometers without increasing measurement uncertainty during icing conditions, forming the main guiding hypothesis of the experiment. Icing on the sensors is monitored visually using cameras recording images every 15 minutes and quantitatively using an icing probe and met station. The effects of applied heat on infrared loss in pyranometers will be analyzed and the integrated effect of icing on monthly averages will be

An on-ice measurement approach to analyse the biomechanics of ice hockey skating.

PubMed

Buckeridge, Erica; LeVangie, Marc C; Stetter, Bernd; Nigg, Sandro R; Nigg, Benno M

2015-01-01

Skating is a fundamental movement in ice hockey; however little research has been conducted within the field of hockey skating biomechanics due to the difficulties of on-ice data collection. In this study a novel on-ice measurement approach was tested for reliability, and subsequently implemented to investigate the forward skating technique, as well as technique differences across skill levels. Nine high caliber (High) and nine low caliber (Low) hockey players performed 30 m forward skating trials. A 3D accelerometer was mounted to the right skate for the purpose of stride detection, with the 2nd and 6th strides defined as acceleration and steady-state, respectively. The activity of five lower extremity muscles was recorded using surface electromyography. Biaxial electro-goniometers were used to quantify hip and knee angles, and in-skate plantar force was measured using instrumented insoles. Reliability was assessed with the coefficient of multiple correlation, which demonstrated moderate (r>0.65) to excellent (r>0.95) scores across selected measured variables. Greater plantar-flexor muscle activity and hip extension were evident during acceleration strides, while steady state strides exhibited greater knee extensor activity and hip abduction range of motion (p<0.05). High caliber exhibited greater hip range of motion and forefoot force application (p<0.05). The successful implementation of this on-ice mobile measurement approach offers potential for athlete monitoring, biofeedback and training advice.

Vertical and horizontal surface displacements near Jakobshavn Isbræ driven by melt-induced and dynamic ice loss

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khan, S. A.; Nielsen, K.; Wahr, J. M.; Bevis, M. G.; Liu, L.; Spada, G.; van Dam, T. M.

2012-12-01

We analyze Global Positioning System (GPS) time series of relative vertical and horizontal displacements from 2009-2011, at four GPS sites located between 5 and 150 km from the front of Jakobshavn Isbræ (JI). The horizontal displacements at KAGA, ILUL, and QEQE, relative to the site AASI, are directed towards east-north-east, suggesting that the main mass loss signal is south-east of these sites. The directions of the observed displacements are supported by modelled displacements, derived from NASA's Airborne Topographic Mapper (ATM) surveys of surface elevations from 2006 to 2011. The agreement between the observed and modelled relative displacements is 0.8 mm or better, which suggests that the mass loss estimate of JI is well captured. In 2010, we observe a rapid increase in the uplift at all four sites. This uplift anomaly, defined as the deviation at 2010.75 from the 2006-2009.75 trend is estimated to 8.8 +/- 2.4 mm (KAGA), 9.3 +/- 2.2 mm (ILUL), 5.1 +/- 2.0 mm (QEQE), and 6.1 +/- 2.3 mm (AASI). The relative large anomalies at the sites QEQE and AASI, located ~150 km from the front of JI, suggests that the uplift anomalies are caused by a large wide-spread melt-induced ice loss. The relatively low uplift anomaly at KAGA, located only 5 km from the front, indicates that there has been a dramatic decrease in dynamic-induced ice loss near the front of JI. This is supported by elevation changes derived from ATM measurements between 2010 and 2011, where we observe an elevation increase in the flow direction of up to 10 m at the frontal part of JI.

The Role of Basal Channels in Ice Shelf Calving.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dow, C. F.; Lee, W. S.; Greenbaum, J. S.; Greene, C. A.; Blankenship, D. D.; Poinar, K.; Forrest, A.; Young, D. A.; Zappa, C. J.

2017-12-01

Increased rates of ice shelf break-up drives acceleration of grounded glacial ice into the ocean, resulting in sea-level rise. Ice shelves are vulnerable to thinning, which make them more susceptible to calving. Here, we examine basal channels under three ice shelves that locally thin the ice and drive formation of transverse ice shelf fractures. The basal channels also cause surface depressions due to hydrostatic buoyancy effects and can draw in surface water to form rivers. These rivers exacerbate thinning by surface melting and hydraulic loading, and can accelerate rifting when they flow into the transverse fractures. Our investigation focuses on Nansen Ice Shelf in the Ross Sea Embayment, East Antarctica. We use ice-sounding radar and single-beam laser altimeter data from two aerogeophysical campaigns conducted in 2011 and 2014, ice surface DEM reconstruction, and satellite imagery analysis, to examine the role of a substantial basal channel in the stability of this ice shelf. Nansen Ice Shelf calved two large icebergs totaling 214 km2 in area in April 2016. The transverse fracture that eventually rifted to form these icebergs initiated directly over the basal channel in 1987. In years when surface water formed on Nansen Ice Shelf, a river flowed into the transverse fracture. In November 2016, we identified a new fracture over the basal channel during in-situ data collection. We compare the Nansen Ice Shelf fractures with those at other vulnerable ice-shelf systems, including Petermann Glacier in Greenland and Totten Glacier in East Antarctica, to evaluate the role that basal channels may play in simultaneous basal and surface weakening and their consequent effect on ice-shelf rifting and stability.

Controls on Arctic sea ice from first-year and multi-year ice survival rates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Armour, K.; Bitz, C. M.; Hunke, E. C.; Thompson, L.

2009-12-01

The recent decrease in Arctic sea ice cover has transpired with a significant loss of multi-year (MY) ice. The transition to an Arctic that is populated by thinner first-year (FY) sea ice has important implications for future trends in area and volume. We develop a reduced model for Arctic sea ice with which we investigate how the survivability of FY and MY ice control various aspects of the sea-ice system. We demonstrate that Arctic sea-ice area and volume behave approximately as first-order autoregressive processes, which allows for a simple interpretation of September sea-ice in which its mean state, variability, and sensitivity to climate forcing can be described naturally in terms of the average survival rates of FY and MY ice. This model, used in concert with a sea-ice simulation that traces FY and MY ice areas to estimate the survival rates, reveals that small trends in the ice survival rates explain the decline in total Arctic ice area, and the relatively larger loss of MY ice area, over the period 1979-2006. Additionally, our model allows for a calculation of the persistence time scales of September area and volume anomalies. A relatively short memory time scale for ice area (~ 1 year) implies that Arctic ice area is nearly in equilibrium with long-term climate forcing at all times, and therefore observed trends in area are a clear indication of a changing climate. A longer memory time scale for ice volume (~ 5 years) suggests that volume can be out of equilibrium with climate forcing for long periods of time, and therefore trends in ice volume are difficult to distinguish from its natural variability. With our reduced model, we demonstrate the connection between memory time scale and sensitivity to climate forcing, and discuss the implications that a changing memory time scale has on the trajectory of ice area and volume in a warming climate. Our findings indicate that it is unlikely that a “tipping point” in September ice area and volume will be

A Model Assessment of Satellite Observed Trends in Polar Sea Ice Extents

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vinnikov, Konstantin Y.; Cavalieri, Donald J.; Parkinson, Claire L.

2005-01-01

For more than three decades now, satellite passive microwave observations have been used to monitor polar sea ice. Here we utilize sea ice extent trends determined from primarily satellite data for both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres for the period 1972(73)-2004 and compare them with results from simulations by eleven climate models. In the Northern Hemisphere, observations show a statistically significant decrease of sea ice extent and an acceleration of sea ice retreat during the past three decades. However, from the modeled natural variability of sea ice extents in control simulations, we conclude that the acceleration is not statistically significant and should not be extrapolated into the future. Observations and model simulations show that the time scale of climate variability in sea ice extent in the Southern Hemisphere is much larger than in the Northern Hemisphere and that the Southern Hemisphere sea ice extent trends are not statistically significant.

Acceleration training for improving physical fitness and weight loss in obese women.

PubMed

So, Rina; Eto, Miki; Tsujimoto, Takehiko; Tanaka, Kiyoji

2014-01-01

Reducing body weight and visceral adipose tissue (VAT) are the primary goals for maintaining health in obese individuals as compared to those of normal weight, but it is also important to maintain physical fitness for a healthy life after weight-loss. Acceleration training (AT) has recently been indicated as an alternative to resistance training for elite athletes and also as a component of preventive medicine. However, it is unclear whether combining AT with a weight-loss diet will improve physical fitness in obese individuals. The present study aimed to determine the synergistic effects of AT on body composition and physical fitness with weight-loss program in overweight and obese women. Twenty-eight obese, middle-aged women were divided into two groups as follows: diet and aerobic exercise group (DA; BMI: 29.3 ± 3.0 kg/m2); and diet, aerobic exercise and acceleration training group (DAA; BMI: 31.2 ± 4.0 kg/m2). Both groups included a 12-week weight-loss program. Body composition, visceral adipose tissue (VAT) area and physical fitness (hand grip, side-to-side steps, single-leg balance with eyes closed, sit-and-reach and maximal oxygen uptake) were measured before and after the program. Body weight, BMI, waist circumference and VAT area decreased significantly in both groups. Hand grip (2.1 ± 3.0 kg), single-leg balance (11.0 ± 15.4 s) and sit-and-reach (6.5 ± 4.8 cm) improved significantly only in the DAA group. Our findings indicate that combining AT with classical lifestyle modifications is effective at reducing VAT, and it may enhance muscle strength and performance in overweight and obese women. © 2014 Asian Oceanian Association for the Study of Obesity . Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Surface water hydrology and the Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, L. C.; Yang, K.; Pitcher, L. H.; Overstreet, B. T.; Chu, V. W.; Rennermalm, A. K.; Cooper, M. G.; Gleason, C. J.; Ryan, J.; Hubbard, A.; Tedesco, M.; Behar, A.

2016-12-01

Mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet now exceeds 260 Gt/year, raising global sea level by >0.7 mm annually. Approximately two-thirds of this total mass loss is now driven by negative ice sheet surface mass balance (SMB), attributed mainly to production and runoff of meltwater from the ice sheet surface. This new dominance of runoff as a driver of GrIS total mass loss will likely persist owing to anticipated further increases in surface melting, reduced meltwater storage in firn, and the waning importance of dynamical mass losses (ice calving) as the ice sheets retreat from their marine-terminating margins. It also creates the need and opportunity for integrative research pairing traditional surface water hydrology approaches with glaciology. As one example, we present a way to measure supraglacial "runoff" (i.e. specific discharge) at the supraglacial catchment scale ( 101-102 km2), using in situ measurements of supraglacial river discharge and high-resolution satellite/drone mapping of upstream catchment area. This approach, which is standard in terrestrial hydrology but novel for ice sheet science, enables independent verification and improvement of modeled SMB runoff estimates used to project sea level rise. Furthermore, because current SMB models do not consider the role of fluvial watershed processes operating on the ice surface, inclusion of even a simple surface routing model materially improves simulations of runoff delivered to moulins, the critical pathways for meltwater entry into the ice sheet. Incorporating principles of surface water hydrology and fluvial geomorphology and into glaciological models will thus aid estimates of Greenland meltwater runoff to the global ocean as well as connections to subglacial hydrology and ice sheet dynamics.

Mass Balance Changes and Ice Dynamics of Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets from Laser Altimetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Babonis, G. S.; Csatho, B.; Schenk, T.

2016-06-01

During the past few decades the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have lost ice at accelerating rates, caused by increasing surface temperature. The melting of the two big ice sheets has a big impact on global sea level rise. If the ice sheets would melt down entirely, the sea level would rise more than 60 m. Even a much smaller rise would cause dramatic damage along coastal regions. In this paper we report about a major upgrade of surface elevation changes derived from laser altimetry data, acquired by NASA's Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite mission (ICESat) and airborne laser campaigns, such as Airborne Topographic Mapper (ATM) and Land, Vegetation and Ice Sensor (LVIS). For detecting changes in ice sheet elevations we have developed the Surface Elevation Reconstruction And Change detection (SERAC) method. It computes elevation changes of small surface patches by keeping the surface shape constant and considering the absolute values as surface elevations. We report about important upgrades of earlier results, for example the inclusion of local ice caps and the temporal extension from 1993 to 2014 for the Greenland Ice Sheet and for a comprehensive reconstruction of ice thickness and mass changes for the Antarctic Ice Sheets.

ICE CONTROL - Towards optimizing wind energy production during icing events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dorninger, Manfred; Strauss, Lukas; Serafin, Stefano; Beck, Alexander; Wittmann, Christoph; Weidle, Florian; Meier, Florian; Bourgeois, Saskia; Cattin, René; Burchhart, Thomas; Fink, Martin

2017-04-01

Forecasts of wind power production loss caused by icing weather conditions are produced by a chain of physical models. The model chain consists of a numerical weather prediction model, an icing model and a production loss model. Each element of the model chain is affected by significant uncertainty, which can be quantified using targeted observations and a probabilistic forecasting approach. In this contribution, we present preliminary results from the recently launched project ICE CONTROL, an Austrian research initiative on measurements, probabilistic forecasting, and verification of icing on wind turbine blades. ICE CONTROL includes an experimental field phase, consisting of measurement campaigns in a wind park in Rhineland-Palatinate, Germany, in the winters 2016/17 and 2017/18. Instruments deployed during the campaigns consist of a conventional icing detector on the turbine hub and newly devised ice sensors (eologix Sensor System) on the turbine blades, as well as meteorological sensors for wind, temperature, humidity, visibility, and precipitation type and spectra. Liquid water content and spectral characteristics of super-cooled water droplets are measured using a Fog Monitor FM-120. Three cameras document the icing conditions on the instruments and on the blades. Different modelling approaches are used to quantify the components of the model-chain uncertainties. The uncertainty related to the initial conditions of the weather prediction is evaluated using the existing global ensemble prediction system (EPS) of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Furthermore, observation system experiments are conducted with the AROME model and its 3D-Var data assimilation to investigate the impact of additional observations (such as Mode-S aircraft data, SCADA data and MSG cloud mask initialization) on the numerical icing forecast. The uncertainty related to model formulation is estimated from multi-physics ensembles based on the Weather Research

Development and characterization of an ice-selecting pumped counterflow virtual impactor (IS-PCVI) to study ice crystal residuals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hiranuma, Naruki; Möhler, Ottmar; Kulkarni, Gourihar; Schnaiter, Martin; Vogt, Steffen; Vochezer, Paul; Järvinen, Emma; Wagner, Robert; Bell, David M.; Wilson, Jacqueline; Zelenyuk, Alla; Cziczo, Daniel J.

2016-08-01

Separation of particles that play a role in cloud activation and ice nucleation from interstitial aerosols has become necessary to further understand aerosol-cloud interactions. The pumped counterflow virtual impactor (PCVI), which uses a vacuum pump to accelerate the particles and increase their momentum, provides an accessible option for dynamic and inertial separation of cloud elements. However, the use of a traditional PCVI to extract large cloud hydrometeors is difficult mainly due to its small cut-size diameters (< 5 µm). Here, for the first time we describe a development of an ice-selecting PCVI (IS-PCVI) to separate ice in controlled mixed-phase cloud system based on the particle inertia with the cut-off diameter ≥ 10 µm. We also present its laboratory application demonstrating the use of the impactor under a wide range of temperature and humidity conditions. The computational fluid dynamics simulations were initially carried out to guide the design of the IS-PCVI. After fabrication, a series of validation laboratory experiments were performed coupled with the Aerosol Interaction and Dynamics in the Atmosphere (AIDA) expansion cloud simulation chamber. In the AIDA chamber, test aerosol particles were exposed to the ice supersaturation conditions (i.e., RHice > 100 %), where a mixture of droplets and ice crystals was formed during the expansion experiment. In parallel, the flow conditions of the IS-PCVI were actively controlled, such that it separated ice crystals from a mixture of ice crystals and cloud droplets, which were of diameter ≥ 10 µm. These large ice crystals were passed through the heated evaporation section to remove the water content. Afterwards, the residuals were characterized with a suite of online and offline instruments downstream of the IS-PCVI. These results were used to assess the optimized operating parameters of the device in terms of (1) the critical cut-size diameter, (2) the transmission efficiency and (3) the counterflow

Turbulent heat exchange between water and ice at an evolving ice-water interface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramudu, Eshwan; Hirsh, Benjamin Henry; Olson, Peter; Gnanadesikan, Anand

2016-07-01

We conduct laboratory experiments on the time evolution of an ice layer cooled from below and subjected to a turbulent shear flow of warm water from above. Our study is motivated by observations of warm water intrusion into the ocean cavity under Antarctic ice shelves, accelerating the melting of their basal surfaces. The strength of the applied turbulent shear flow in our experiments is represented in terms of its Reynolds number $\\textit{Re}$, which is varied over the range $2.0\\times10^3 \\le \\textit{Re} \\le 1.0\\times10^4$. Depending on the water temperature, partial transient melting of the ice occurs at the lower end of this range of $\\textit{Re}$ and complete transient melting of the ice occurs at the higher end. Following these episodes of transient melting, the ice reforms at a rate that is independent of $\\textit{Re}$. We fit our experimental measurements of ice thickness and temperature to a one-dimensional model for the evolution of the ice thickness in which the turbulent heat transfer is parameterized in terms of the friction velocity of the shear flow. The melting mechanism we investigate in our experiments can easily account for the basal melting rate of Pine Island Glacier ice shelf inferred from observations.

Asynchronously Coupled Models of Ice Loss from Airless Planetary Bodies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schorghofer, N.

2016-12-01

Ice is found near the surface of dwarf planet Ceres, in some main belt asteroids, and perhaps in NEOs that will be explored or even mined in future. The simple but important question of how fast ice is lost from airless bodies can present computational challenges. The thermal cycle on the surface repeats on much shorter time-scales than ice retreats; one process acts on the time-scale of hours, the other over billions of years. This multi-scale situation is addressed with asynchronous coupling, where models with different time steps are woven together. The sharp contrast at the retreating ice table is dealt with with explicit interface tracking. For Ceres, which is covered with a thermally insulating dust mantle, desiccation rates are orders of magnitude slower than had been calculated with simpler models. More model challenges remain: The role of impact devolatization and the time-scale for complete desiccation of an asteroid. I will also share my experience with code distribution using GitHub and Zenodo.

Ice2sea - the future glacial contribution to sea-level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vaughan, D. G.; Ice2sea Consortium

2009-04-01

The melting of continental ice (glaciers, ice caps and ice sheets) is a substantial source of current sea-level rise, and one that is accelerating more rapidly than was predicted even a few years ago. Indeed, the most recent report from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change highlighted that the uncertainty in projections of future sea-level rise is dominated by uncertainty concerning continental ice, and that understanding of the key processes that will lead to loss of continental ice must be improved before reliable projections of sea-level rise can be produced. Such projections are urgently required for effective sea-defence management and coastal adaptation planning. Ice2sea is a consortium of European institutes and international partners seeking European funding to support an integrated scientific programme to improve understanding concerning the future glacial contribution to sea-level rise. This includes improving understanding of the processes that control, past, current and future sea-level rise, and generation of improved estimates of the contribution of glacial components to sea-level rise over the next 200 years. The programme will include targeted studies of key processes in mountain glacier systems and ice caps (e.g. Svalbard), and in ice sheets in both polar regions (Greenland and Antarctica) to improve understanding of how these systems will respond to future climate change. It will include fieldwork and remote sensing studies, and develop a suite of new, cross-validated glacier and ice-sheet model. Ice2sea will deliver these results in forms accessible to scientists, policy-makers and the general public, which will include clear presentations of the sources of uncertainty. Our aim is both, to provide improved projections of the glacial contribution to sea-level rise, and to leave a legacy of improved tools and techniques that will form the basis of ongoing refinements in sea-level projection. Ice2sea will provide exciting opportunities for many

Reliability of Triaxial Accelerometry for Measuring Load in Men's Collegiate Ice Hockey.

PubMed

Van Iterson, Erik H; Fitzgerald, John S; Dietz, Calvin C; Snyder, Eric M; Peterson, Ben J

2017-05-01

Van Iterson, EH, Fitzgerald, JS, Dietz, CC, Snyder, EM, and Peterson, BJ. Reliability of triaxial accelerometry for measuring load in men's collegiate ice hockey. J Strength Cond Res 31(5): 1305-1312, 2017-Wearable microsensor technology incorporating triaxial accelerometry is used to quantify an index of mechanical stress associated with sport-specific movements termed PlayerLoad. The test-retest reliability of PlayerLoad in the environmental setting of ice hockey is unknown. The primary aim of this study was to quantify the test-retest reliability of PlayerLoad in ice hockey players during performance of tasks simulating game conditions. Division I collegiate male ice hockey players (N = 8) wore Catapult Optimeye S5 monitors during repeat performance of 9 ice hockey tasks simulating game conditions. Ordered ice hockey tasks during repeated bouts included acceleration (forward or backward), 60% top-speed, top-speed (forward or backward), repeated shift circuit, ice coasting, slap shot, and bench sitting. Coefficient of variation (CV), intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC), and minimum difference (MD) were used to assess PlayerLoad reliability. Test-retest CVs and ICCs of PlayerLoad were as follows: 8.6% and 0.54 for forward acceleration, 13.8% and 0.78 for backward acceleration, 2.2% and 0.96 for 60% top-speed, 7.5% and 0.79 for forward top-speed, 2.8% and 0.96 for backward top-speed, 26.6% and 0.95 for repeated shift test, 3.9% and 0.68 for slap shot, 3.7% and 0.98 for coasting, and 4.1% and 0.98 for bench sitting, respectively. Raw differences between bouts were not significant for ice hockey tasks (p > 0.05). For each task, between-bout raw differences were lower vs. MD: 0.06 vs. 0.35 (forward acceleration), 0.07 vs. 0.36 (backward acceleration), 0.00 vs. 0.06 (60% top-speed), 0.03 vs. 0.20 (forward top-speed), 0.02 vs. 0.09 (backward top-speed), 0.18 vs. 0.64 (repeated shift test), 0.02 vs. 0.10 (slap shot), 0.00 vs. 0.10 (coasting), and 0.01 vs. 0

Increased future ice discharge from Antarctica owing to higher snowfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winkelmann, Ricarda; Levermann, Anders; Martin, Maria A.; Frieler, Katja

2013-04-01

Anthropogenic climate change is likely to cause continuing global sea-level rise, but some processes within the Earth system may mitigate the magnitude of the projected effect. Regional and global climate models simulate enhanced snowfall over Antarctica, which would provide a direct offset of the future contribution to global sea level rise from cryospheric mass loss and ocean expansion. Uncertainties exist in modelled snowfall, but even larger uncertainties exist in the potential changes of dynamic ice discharge from Antarctica. Here we show that snowfall and discharge are not independent, but that future ice discharge will increase by up to three times as a result of additional snowfall under global warming. Our results, based on an ice-sheet model forced by climate simulations through to the end of 2500, show that the enhanced discharge effect exceeds the effect of surface warming as well as that of basal ice-shelf melting, and is due to the difference in surface elevation change caused by snowfall on grounded versus floating ice. Although different underlying forcings drive ice loss from basal melting versus increased snowfall, similar ice dynamical processes are nonetheless at work in both; therefore results are relatively independent of the specific representation of the transition zone. In an ensemble of simulations designed to capture ice-physics uncertainty, the additional dynamic ice loss along the coastline compensates between 30 and 65 per cent of the ice gain due to enhanced snowfall over the entire continent. This results in a dynamic ice loss of up to 1.25 metres in the year 2500 for the strongest warming scenario.

Head-impact mechanisms in men's and women's collegiate ice hockey.

PubMed

Wilcox, Bethany J; Machan, Jason T; Beckwith, Jonathan G; Greenwald, Richard M; Burmeister, Emily; Crisco, Joseph J

2014-01-01

Concussion injury rates in men's and women's ice hockey are reported to be among the highest of all collegiate sports. Quantification of the frequency of head impacts and the magnitude of head acceleration as a function of the different impact mechanisms (eg, head contact with the ice) that occur in ice hockey could provide a better understanding of this high injury rate. To quantify and compare the per-game frequency and magnitude of head impacts associated with various impact mechanisms in men's and women's collegiate ice hockey players. Cohort study. Collegiate ice hockey rink. Twenty-three men and 31 women from 2 National Collegiate Athletic Association Division I ice hockey teams. We analyzed magnitude and frequency (per game) of head impacts per player among impact mechanisms and between sexes using generalized mixed linear models and generalized estimating equations to account for repeated measures within players. Participants wore helmets instrumented with accelerometers to allow us to collect biomechanical measures of head impacts sustained during play. Video footage from 53 games was synchronized with the biomechanical data. Head impacts were classified into 8 categories: contact with another player; the ice, boards or glass, stick, puck, or goal; indirect contact; and contact from celebrating. For men and women, contact with another player was the most frequent impact mechanism, and contact with the ice generated the greatest-magnitude head accelerations. The men had higher per-game frequencies of head impacts from contact with another player and contact with the boards than did the women (P < .001), and these impacts were greater in peak rotational acceleration (P = .027). Identifying the impact mechanisms in collegiate ice hockey that result in frequent and high-magnitude head impacts will provide us with data that may improve our understanding of the high rate of concussion in the sport and inform injury-prevention strategies.

Forecasting consequences of changing sea ice availability for Pacific walruses

USGS Publications Warehouse

Udevitz, Mark S.; Jay, Chadwick V.; Taylor, Rebecca; Fischbach, Anthony S.; Beatty, William S.; Noren, Shawn R.

2017-01-01

The accelerating rate of anthropogenic alteration and disturbance of environments has increased the need for forecasting effects of environmental change on fish and wildlife populations. Models linking projections of environmental change with behavioral responses and bioenergetic effects can provide a basis for these forecasts. There is particular interest in forecasting effects of projected reductions in sea ice availability on Pacific walruses (Odobenus rosmarus divergens). Declining extent of summer sea ice in the Chukchi Sea has caused Pacific walruses to increase use of coastal haulouts and decrease use of more productive offshore feeding areas. Such climate-induced changes in distribution and behavior could ultimately affect the status of the population. We developed behavioral models to relate changes in sea ice availability to adult female walrus movements and activity levels, and adapted previously developed bioenergetics models to relate those activity levels to energy requirements and the ability to meet those requirements. We then linked these models to general circulation model projections of future ice availability to forecast autumn body condition for female walruses during mid- and late-century time periods. Our results suggest that as sea ice becomes less available in the Chukchi Sea, female walruses will spend more time in the southwestern region of that sea, less time resting, and less time foraging. Median forecasted autumn body masses were 7–12% lower in future scenarios than during recent times, but posterior distributions broadly overlapped and median forecasted seasonal mass losses (15–34%) were comparable to seasonal mass losses routinely experienced by other pinnipeds. These seasonal reductions in body condition would be unlikely to result in demographic effects, but if walruses were unable to rebuild endogenous reserves while wintering in the Bering Sea, cumulative effects could have implications for reproduction and survival

Climatic effects on ice-jam flooding of the Peace-Athabasca Delta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beltaos, S.; Prowse, T.; Bonsal, B.; Mackay, R.; Romolo, L.; Pietroniro, A.; Toth, B.

2006-12-01

The Peace-Athabasca Delta (PAD) in northern Alberta is one of the world's largest inland freshwater deltas, home to large populations of waterfowl, muskrat, beaver, and free-ranging wood bison. In recent decades, a paucity of ice-jam flooding in the lower Peace River has resulted in prolonged dry periods and considerable reduction in the area covered by lakes and ponds that provide habitat for aquatic life in the PAD region. Building on previous work that has identified the salient hydro-climatic factors, the frequency of ice-jam floods is considered under present (1961-1990) and future (2070-2099) climatic conditions. The latter are determined using temperature and precipitation output from the Canadian Climate Centre's second-generation Global Climate Model (CGCM2) for two different greenhouse-gas/sulphate emission scenarios. The analysis indicates that the ice season is likely to be reduced by 2-4 weeks, while future ice covers would be slightly thinner than they are at present. More importantly, a large part of the Peace River basin is expected to experience frequent and sustained mid-winter thaws, leading to significant melt and depleted snowpacks in the spring. Using an empirical relationship between ice-jam flood occurrence and size of the spring snowpack, a severe reduction in the frequency of ice-jam flooding is predicted under both future-climate scenarios that were considered. In turn, this trend is likely to accelerate the loss of aquatic habitat in the PAD region. Implications for potential mitigation and adaptation strategies are discussed. Copyright

Equatorial ground ice on Mars: Steady-state stability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mellon, Michael T.; Jakosky, Bruce M.; Postawko, Susan E.

1993-01-01

Current Martian equatorial surface temperatures are too warm for water ice to exist at the surface for any appreciable length of time before subliming into the atmosphere. Subsurface temperatures are generally warmer still and, despite the presence of a diffusive barrier of porous regolith material, it has been shown by Smoluchowski, Clifford and Hillel, and Fanale et al. that buried ground ice will also sublime and be lost to the atmosphere in a relatively short time. We investigate the behavior of this subliming subsurface ice and show that it is possible for ice to maintain at a steady-state depth, where sublimation and diffusive loss to the atmosphere is balanced by resupply from beneath by diffusion and recondensation of either a deeper buried ice deposits or ground water. We examine the behavior of equatorial ground ice with a numercial time-marching molecular diffusion model. In our model we allow for diffusion of water vapor through a porous regolith, variations in diffusivity and porosity with ice content, and recondensation of sublimed water vapor. A regolith containing considerable amounts of ice can still be very porous, allowing water vapor to diffuse up from deeper within the ice layer where temperatures are warmer due to the geothermal gradient. This vapor can then recondense nearer to the surface where ice had previously sublimed and been lost to the atmosphere. As a result we find that ice deposits migrate to find a steady-state depth, which represents a balance between diffusive loss to the atmosphere through the overlying porous regolith and diffusive resupply through a porous icy regolith below. This depth depends primarily on the long-term mean surface temperature and the nature of the geothermal gradient, and is independent of the ice-free porosity and the regolith diffusivity. Only the rate of loss of ground ice depends on diffusive properties.

Increased future ice discharge from Antarctica owing to higher snowfall.

PubMed

Winkelmann, R; Levermann, A; Martin, M A; Frieler, K

2012-12-13

Anthropogenic climate change is likely to cause continuing global sea level rise, but some processes within the Earth system may mitigate the magnitude of the projected effect. Regional and global climate models simulate enhanced snowfall over Antarctica, which would provide a direct offset of the future contribution to global sea level rise from cryospheric mass loss and ocean expansion. Uncertainties exist in modelled snowfall, but even larger uncertainties exist in the potential changes of dynamic ice discharge from Antarctica and thus in the ultimate fate of the precipitation-deposited ice mass. Here we show that snowfall and discharge are not independent, but that future ice discharge will increase by up to three times as a result of additional snowfall under global warming. Our results, based on an ice-sheet model forced by climate simulations through to the end of 2500 (ref. 8), show that the enhanced discharge effect exceeds the effect of surface warming as well as that of basal ice-shelf melting, and is due to the difference in surface elevation change caused by snowfall on grounded versus floating ice. Although different underlying forcings drive ice loss from basal melting versus increased snowfall, similar ice dynamical processes are nonetheless at work in both; therefore results are relatively independent of the specific representation of the transition zone. In an ensemble of simulations designed to capture ice-physics uncertainty, the additional dynamic ice loss along the coastline compensates between 30 and 65 per cent of the ice gain due to enhanced snowfall over the entire continent. This results in a dynamic ice loss of up to 1.25 metres in the year 2500 for the strongest warming scenario. The reported effect thus strongly counters a potential negative contribution to global sea level by the Antarctic Ice Sheet.

Pan-Arctic sea ice-algal chl a biomass and suitable habitat are largely underestimated for multiyear ice.

PubMed

Lange, Benjamin A; Flores, Hauke; Michel, Christine; Beckers, Justin F; Bublitz, Anne; Casey, John Alec; Castellani, Giulia; Hatam, Ido; Reppchen, Anke; Rudolph, Svenja A; Haas, Christian

2017-11-01

There is mounting evidence that multiyear ice (MYI) is a unique component of the Arctic Ocean and may play a more important ecological role than previously assumed. This study improves our understanding of the potential of MYI as a suitable habitat for sea ice algae on a pan-Arctic scale. We sampled sea ice cores from MYI and first-year sea ice (FYI) within the Lincoln Sea during four consecutive spring seasons. This included four MYI hummocks with a mean chl a biomass of 2.0 mg/m 2 , a value significantly higher than FYI and MYI refrozen ponds. Our results support the hypothesis that MYI hummocks can host substantial ice-algal biomass and represent a reliable ice-algal habitat due to the (quasi-) permanent low-snow surface of these features. We identified an ice-algal habitat threshold value for calculated light transmittance of 0.014%. Ice classes and coverage of suitable ice-algal habitat were determined from snow and ice surveys. These ice classes and associated coverage of suitable habitat were applied to pan-Arctic CryoSat-2 snow and ice thickness data products. This habitat classification accounted for the variability of the snow and ice properties and showed an areal coverage of suitable ice-algal habitat within the MYI-covered region of 0.54 million km 2 (8.5% of total ice area). This is 27 times greater than the areal coverage of 0.02 million km 2 (0.3% of total ice area) determined using the conventional block-model classification, which assigns single-parameter values to each grid cell and does not account for subgrid cell variability. This emphasizes the importance of accounting for variable snow and ice conditions in all sea ice studies. Furthermore, our results indicate the loss of MYI will also mean the loss of reliable ice-algal habitat during spring when food is sparse and many organisms depend on ice-algae. © 2017 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A tale of two polar bear populations: Ice habitat, harvest, and body condition

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rode, Karyn D.; Peacock, Elizabeth; Taylor, Mitchell K.; Stirling, Ian; Born, Erik W.; Laidre, Kristin L.; Wiig, Øystein

2012-01-01

One of the primary mechanisms by which sea ice loss is expected to affect polar bears is via reduced body condition and growth resulting from reduced access to prey. To date, negative effects of sea ice loss have been documented for two of 19 recognized populations. Effects of sea ice loss on other polar bear populations that differ in harvest rate, population density, and/or feeding ecology have been assumed, but empirical support, especially quantitative data on population size, demography, and/or body condition spanning two or more decades, have been lacking. We examined trends in body condition metrics of captured bears and relationships with summertime ice concentration between 1977 and 2010 for the Baffin Bay (BB) and Davis Strait (DS) polar bear populations. Polar bears in these regions occupy areas with annual sea ice that has decreased markedly starting in the 1990s. Despite differences in harvest rate, population density, sea ice concentration, and prey base, polar bears in both populations exhibited positive relationships between body condition and summertime sea ice cover during the recent period of sea ice decline. Furthermore, females and cubs exhibited relationships with sea ice that were not apparent during the earlier period (1977–1990s) when sea ice loss did not occur. We suggest that declining body condition in BB may be a result of recent declines in sea ice habitat. In DS, high population density and/or sea ice loss, may be responsible for the declines in body condition.

An On-Ice Measurement Approach to Analyse the Biomechanics of Ice Hockey Skating

PubMed Central

Buckeridge, Erica; LeVangie, Marc C.; Stetter, Bernd; Nigg, Sandro R.; Nigg, Benno M.

2015-01-01

Skating is a fundamental movement in ice hockey; however little research has been conducted within the field of hockey skating biomechanics due to the difficulties of on-ice data collection. In this study a novel on-ice measurement approach was tested for reliability, and subsequently implemented to investigate the forward skating technique, as well as technique differences across skill levels. Nine high caliber (High) and nine low caliber (Low) hockey players performed 30m forward skating trials. A 3D accelerometer was mounted to the right skate for the purpose of stride detection, with the 2nd and 6th strides defined as acceleration and steady-state, respectively. The activity of five lower extremity muscles was recorded using surface electromyography. Biaxial electro-goniometers were used to quantify hip and knee angles, and in-skate plantar force was measured using instrumented insoles. Reliability was assessed with the coefficient of multiple correlation, which demonstrated moderate (r>0.65) to excellent (r>0.95) scores across selected measured variables. Greater plantar-flexor muscle activity and hip extension were evident during acceleration strides, while steady state strides exhibited greater knee extensor activity and hip abduction range of motion (p<0.05). High caliber exhibited greater hip range of motion and forefoot force application (p<0.05). The successful implementation of this on-ice mobile measurement approach offers potential for athlete monitoring, biofeedback and training advice. PMID:25973775

NASA Science Flights Target Melting Arctic Sea Ice

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-12-08

This summer, with sea ice across the Arctic Ocean shrinking to below-average levels, a NASA airborne survey of polar ice just completed its first flights. Its target: aquamarine pools of melt water on the ice surface that may be accelerating the overall sea ice retreat. NASA’s Operation IceBridge completed the first research flight of its new 2016 Arctic summer campaign on July 13. The science flights, which continue through July 25, are collecting data on sea ice in a year following a record-warm winter in the Arctic. Read more: go.nasa.gov/29T6mxc Caption: A large pool of melt water over sea ice, as seen from an Operation IceBridge flight over the Beaufort Sea on July 14, 2016. During this summer campaign, IceBridge will map the extent, frequency and depth of melt ponds like these to help scientists forecast the Arctic sea ice yearly minimum extent in September. Credit: NASA/Operation IceBridge

Dynamic behaviour of ice streams: the North East Greenland Ice Stream

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bons, Paul D.; Jansen, Daniela; Schaufler, Svenja; de Riese, Tamara; Sachau, Till; Weikusat, Ilka

2017-04-01

The flow of ice towards the margins of ice sheets is far from homogeneous. Ice streams show much higher flow velocities than their surroundings and may extend, for example the North East Greenland Ice Stream (NEGIS), towards the centre of the sheet. The elevated flow velocity inside an ice stream causes marginal shearing and convergent flow, which in turn leads to folding of ice layers. Such folding was documented in the Petermann Glacier in northern Greenland (Bons et al., 2016). 3-dimensional structural modelling using radargrams shows that folding is more intense adjacent to NEGIS than inside it, despite the strong flow perturbation at NEGIS. Analysis of fold amplitude as a function of stratigraphic level indicates that folding adjacent to NEGIS ceased in the early Holocene, while it is currently active inside NEGIS. The presence of folds adjacent of NEGIS, but also at other sites far in the interior of the Greenland Ice Sheet with no direct connection to the present-day surface velocity field, indicates that ice flow is not only heterogeneous in space (as the present-day flow velocity field shows), but also in time. The observations suggest that ice streams are dynamic, ephemeral structures that emerge and die out, and may possibly shift during their existence, but leave traces within the stratigraphic layering of the ice. The dynamic nature of ice streams such as NEGIS speaks against deterministic models for their accelerated flow rates, such as bedrock topography or thermal perturbations at their base. Instead, we suggest that ice streams can also result from strain localisation induced inside the ice sheet by the complex coupling of rheology, anisotropy, grain-size changes and possibly shear heating. Bons, P.D., Jansen, D., Mundel, F., Bauer, C.C., Binder, T., Eisen, O., Jessell, M.W., Llorens, M.-G, Steinbach, F., Steinhage, D. & Weikusat, I. 2016. Converging flow and anisotropy cause large-scale folding in Greenland's ice sheet. Nature Communications 7

Multiyear ice transport and small scale sea ice deformation near the Alaska coast measured by air-deployable Ice Trackers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahoney, A. R.; Kasper, J.; Winsor, P.

2015-12-01

Highly complex patterns of ice motion and deformation were captured by fifteen satellite-telemetered GPS buoys (known as Ice Trackers) deployed near Barrow, Alaska, in spring 2015. Two pentagonal clusters of buoys were deployed on pack ice by helicopter in the Beaufort Sea between 20 and 80 km offshore. During deployment, ice motion in the study region was effectively zero, but two days later the buoys captured a rapid transport event in which multiyear ice from the Beaufort Sea was flushed into the Chukchi Sea. During this event, westward ice motion began in the Chukchi Sea and propagated eastward. This created new openings in the ice and led to rapid elongation of the clusters as the westernmost buoys accelerated away from their neighbors to the east. The buoys tracked ice velocities of over 1.5 ms-1, with fastest motion occurring closest to the coast indicating strong current shear. Three days later, ice motion reversed and the two clusters became intermingled, rendering divergence calculations based on the area enclosed by clusters invalid. The data show no detectable difference in velocity between first year and multiyear ice floes, but Lagrangian timeseries of SAR imagery centered on each buoy show that first year ice underwent significant small-scale deformation during the event. The five remaining buoys were deployed by local residents on prominent ridges embedded in the landfast ice within 16 km of Barrow in order to track the fate of such features after they detached from the coast. Break-up of the landfast ice took place over a period of several days and, although the buoys each initially followed a similar eastward trajectory around Point Barrow into the Beaufort Sea, they rapidly dispersed over an area more than 50 km across. With rapid environmental and socio-economic change in the Arctic, understanding the complexity of nearshore ice motion is increasingly important for predict future changes in the ice and the tracking ice-related hazards

Greenland ice sheet outlet glacier front changes: comparison of year 2008 with past years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Decker, D. E.; Box, J.; Benson, R.

2008-12-01

NASA's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) imagery are used to calculate inter-annual, end of summer, glacier front area changes at 10 major Greenland ice sheet outlets over the 2000-2008 period. To put the recent 8 end of summer net annual changes into a longer perspective, glacier front position information from the past century are also incorporated. The largest MODIS-era area changes are losses/retreats; found at the relatively large Petermann Gletscher, Zachariae Isstrom, and Jakobshavn Isbrae. The 2007-2008 net ice area losses were 63.4 sq. km, 21.5 sq. km, and 10.9 sq. km, respectively. Of the 10 largest Greenland glaciers surveyed, the total net cumulative area change from end of summer 2000 to 2008 is -536.6 sq km, that is, an area loss equivalent with 6.1 times the area of Manhattan Is. (87.5 sq km) in New York, USA. Ice front advances are evident in 2008; also at relatively large and productive (in terms of ice discharge) glaciers of Helheim (5.7 sq km), Store Gletscher (4.9 sq km), and Kangerdlugssuaq (3.4 sq km). The largest retreat in the 2000-2008 period was 54.2 sq km at Jakobshavn Isbrae between 2002 and 2003; associated with a floating tongue disintegration following a retreat that began in 2001 and has been associated with thinning until floatation is reached; followed by irreversible collapse. The Zachariae Isstrom pro-glacial floating ice shelf loss in 2008 appears to be part of an average ~20 sq km per year disintegration trend; with the exception of the year 2006 (6.2 sq km) advance. If the Zachariae Isstrom retreat continues, we are concerned the largest ice sheet ice stream that empties into Zachariae Isstrom will accelerate, the ice stream front freed of damming back stress, increasing the ice sheet mass budget deficit in ways that are poorly understood and could be surprisingly large. By approximating the width of the surveyed glacier frontal zones, we determine and present effective glacier normalized length (L

Changes in the Mass Balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet in a Warming Climate During 2003-2009

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zwally, H. Jay; Luthcke, Scott

2010-01-01

Mass changes of the Greenland ice sheet (GIS) derived from ICESat and GRACE data both show that the net mass loss from GIS during 2003-2009 is about 175 Gt/year, which contributes 0.5mm/yr global sea-level rise. The rate of mass loss has increased significantly since the 1990's when the GIS was close to mass balance. Even though the GIS was close to mass balance during the 1990's, it was already showing characteristics of responding to8 warmer climate, specifically thinning at the margins and thickening inland at higher elevations. During 2003-2009, increased ice thinning due to increases in melting and acceleration of outlet glaciers began to strongly exceed the inland thickening from increases in accumulation. Over the entire GIS, the mass loss between the two periods, from increased melting and ice dynamics, increased by about 190 Gt/year while the mass gain, from increased precipitation and accumulation, increased by only about 15Gt/year. These ice changes occurred during a time when the temperature on GIS changed at rate of about 2K/decade. The distribution of elevation and mass changes derived from ICESat have high spatial resolution showing details over outlet glaciers, by drainage systems, and by elevation. However, information on the seasonal cycle of changes from ICESat data is limited, because the ICESat lasers were only operated during two to three campaigns per year of about 35 days duration each. In contrast, the temporal resolution of GRACE data, provided by the continuous data collection, is much better showing details of the seasonal cycle and the inter-annual variability. The differing sensitivity of the ICESat altimetry and the GRACE gravity methods to motion of the underlying bedrock from glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) is used to evaluate the GIA corrections provided by models. The two data types are also combined to make estimates of the partitioning of the mass gains and losses among accumulation, melting, and ice discharge from outlet

How will melting of ice affect volcanic hazards in the twenty-first century?

PubMed

Tuffen, Hugh

2010-05-28

Glaciers and ice sheets on many active volcanoes are rapidly receding. There is compelling evidence that melting of ice during the last deglaciation triggered a dramatic acceleration in volcanic activity. Will melting of ice this century, which is associated with climate change, similarly affect volcanic activity and associated hazards? This paper provides a critical overview of the evidence that current melting of ice will increase the frequency or size of hazardous volcanic eruptions. Many aspects of the link between ice recession and accelerated volcanic activity remain poorly understood. Key questions include how rapidly volcanic systems react to melting of ice, whether volcanoes are sensitive to small changes in ice thickness and how recession of ice affects the generation, storage and eruption of magma at stratovolcanoes. A greater frequency of collapse events at glaciated stratovolcanoes can be expected in the near future, and there is strong potential for positive feedbacks between melting of ice and enhanced volcanism. Nonetheless, much further research is required to remove current uncertainties about the implications of climate change for volcanic hazards in the twenty-first century.

Effects of Ice Formations on Airplane Performance in Level Cruising Flight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Preston, G. Merritt; Blackman, Calvin C.

1948-01-01

A flight investigation in natural icing conditions was conducted by the NACA to determine the effect of ice accretion on airplane performance. The maximum loss in propeller efficiency encountered due to ice formation on the propeller blades was 19 percent. During 87 percent of the propeller icing encounters, losses of 10 percent or less were observed. Ice formations on all of the components of the airplane except the propellers during one icing encounter resulted in an increase in parasite drag of the airplane of 81 percent. The control response of the airplane in this condition was marginal.

The sensitivity of the Greenland Ice Sheet to glacial-interglacial oceanic forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tabone, Ilaria; Blasco, Javier; Robinson, Alexander; Alvarez-Solas, Jorge; Montoya, Marisa

2018-04-01

Observations suggest that during the last decades the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) has experienced a gradually accelerating mass loss, in part due to the observed speed-up of several of Greenland's marine-terminating glaciers. Recent studies directly attribute this to warming North Atlantic temperatures, which have triggered melting of the outlet glaciers of the GrIS, grounding-line retreat and enhanced ice discharge into the ocean, contributing to an acceleration of sea-level rise. Reconstructions suggest that the influence of the ocean has been of primary importance in the past as well. This was the case not only in interglacial periods, when warmer climates led to a rapid retreat of the GrIS to land above sea level, but also in glacial periods, when the GrIS expanded as far as the continental shelf break and was thus more directly exposed to oceanic changes. However, the GrIS response to palaeo-oceanic variations has yet to be investigated in detail from a mechanistic modelling perspective. In this work, the evolution of the GrIS over the past two glacial cycles is studied using a three-dimensional hybrid ice-sheet-shelf model. We assess the effect of the variation of oceanic temperatures on the GrIS evolution on glacial-interglacial timescales through changes in submarine melting. The results show a very high sensitivity of the GrIS to changing oceanic conditions. Oceanic forcing is found to be a primary driver of GrIS expansion in glacial times and of retreat in interglacial periods. If switched off, palaeo-atmospheric variations alone are not able to yield a reliable glacial configuration of the GrIS. This work therefore suggests that considering the ocean as an active forcing should become standard practice in palaeo-ice-sheet modelling.

Mechanisms and Simulation of accelerated shrinkage of continental glaciers: a case study of Urumqi Glacier No. 1 Eastern Tianshan, Central Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zhongqin; Ren, Jiawen; Li, Huilin; Wang, Puyu; Wang, Feiteng

2016-04-01

Similar to most mountain glaciers in the world, Urumqi Glacier No. 1 (UG1), the best observed glacier in China with continued glaciological and climatological monitoring records of longer than 50 years has experienced an accelerated recession during the past several decades. The purpose of this study is to investigate the acceleration of recession. By taking UG1 as an example, we analyze the generic mechanisms of acceleration of shrinkage of continental mountain glaciers. The results indicate that the acceleration of mass loss of UG1 commenced first in 1985 and second in 1996 and that the latter was more vigorous. The air temperature rises during melting season, the ice temperature augment of the glacier and the albedo reduction on the glacier surface are considered responsible for the accelerated recession. In addition, the simulations of the accelerated shrinkage of UG1 are introduced.

Ice Shelves and Landfast Ice on the Antarctic Perimeter: Revised Scope of Work

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Scambos, Ted

2002-01-01

Ice shelves respond quickly and profoundly to a warming climate. Within a decade after mean summertime temperature reaches approx. O C and persistent melt pending is observed, a rapid retreat and disintegration occurs. This link was documented for ice shelves in the Antarctic Peninsula region (the Larsen 'A', 'B' and Wilkins Ice shelves) by the results of a previous grant under ADRO-1. Modeling of ice flow and the effects of meltwater indicated that melt pending accelerates shelf breakup by increasing fracture penetration. SAR data supplemented an AVHRR- and SSM/I-based image analysis of extent and surface characteristic changes. This funded grant is a revised, scaled-down version of an earlier proposal under the ADRO-2 NRA. The overall objective remains the same: we propose to build on the previous study by examining other ice shelves of the Antarctic and incorporate an examination of the climate-related characteristics of landfast ice. The study now considers just a few shelf and fast ice areas for study, and is funded for two years. The study regions are the northeastern Ross Ice Shelf, the Larsen 'B' and 'C' shelves, fast ice and floating shelf ice in the Pine Island Glacier area, and fast ice along the Wilkes Land coast. Further, rather than investigating a host of shelf and fast ice processes, we will home in on developing a series of characteristics associated with climate change over shelf and fast ice areas. Melt pending and break-up are the end stages of a response to a warming climate that may begin with increased melt event frequency (which changes both albedo and emissivity temporarily), changing firn backscatter (due to percolation features), and possibly increased rifting of the shelf surface. Fast ice may show some of these same processes on a seasonal timescale, providing insight into shelf evolution.

Accelerated redox reaction between chromate and phenolic pollutants during freezing.

PubMed

Ju, Jinjung; Kim, Jaesung; Vetráková, Ľubica; Seo, Jiwon; Heger, Dominik; Lee, Changha; Yoon, Ho-Il; Kim, Kitae; Kim, Jungwon

2017-05-05

The redox reaction between 4-chlorophenol (4-CP) and chromate (Cr(VI)) (i.e., the simultaneous oxidation of 4-CP by Cr(VI) and reduction of Cr(VI) by 4-CP) in ice (i.e., at -20°C) was compared with the corresponding reaction in water (i.e., at 25°C). The redox conversion of 4-CP/Cr(VI), which was negligible in water, was significantly accelerated in ice. This accelerated redox conversion of 4-CP/Cr(VI) in ice is ascribed to the freeze concentration effect occurring during freezing, which excludes solutes (i.e., 4-CP and Cr(VI)) and protons from the ice crystals and subsequently concentrates them in the liquid brine. The concentrations of Cr(VI) and protons in the liquid brine were confirmed by measuring the optical image and the UV-vis absorption spectra of cresol red (CR) as a pH indicator of frozen solution. The redox conversion of 4-CP/Cr(VI) was observed in water when the concentrations of 4-CP/protons or Cr(VI)/protons increased by 100/1000-fold. These results corroborate the freeze concentration effect as the reason for the accelerated redox conversion of 4-CP/Cr(VI) in ice. The redox conversion of various phenolic pollutants/Cr(VI) and 4-CP/Cr(VI) in real wastewater was successfully achieved in ice, which verifies the environmental relevance and importance of freezing-accelerated redox conversion of phenolic pollutants/Cr(VI) in cold regions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Oceanic Transport of Surface Meltwater from the Southern Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Luo, Hao; Castelao, Renato M.; Rennermalm, Asa K.; Tedesco, Marco; Bracco, Annalisa; Yager, Patricia L.; Mote, Thomas L.

2016-01-01

The Greenland ice sheet has undergone accelerating mass losses during recent decades. Freshwater runoff from ice melt can influence fjord circulation and dynamic1 and the delivery of bioavailable micronutrients to the ocean. It can also have climate implications, because stratification in the adjacent Labrador Sea may influence deep convection and the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Yet, the fate of the meltwater in the ocean remains unclear. Here, we use a high-resolution ocean model to show that only 1-15% of the surface meltwater runoff originating from southwest Greenland is transported westwards. In contrast, up to 50-60% of the meltwater runoff originating from southeast Greenland is transported westwards into the northern Labrador Sea, leading to significant salinity and stratification anomalies far from the coast. Doubling meltwater runoff, as predicted in future climate scenarios, results in a more-than-double increase in anomalies offshore that persists further into the winter. Interannual variability in offshore export of meltwater is tightly related to variability in wind forcing. The new insight that meltwaters originating from the west and east coasts have different fates indicates that future changes in mass loss rates and surface runoff will probably impact the ocean differently, depending on their Greenland origins.

Flexural-gravity Wave Attenuation in a Thick Ice Shelf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stephen, R. A.; Bromirski, P. D.; Gerstoft, P.; Chen, Z.; Wiens, D.; Aster, R. C.; Nyblade, A.

2016-12-01

A thirty-four station broadband seismic array was deployed on the Ross Ice Shelf, Antarctica from November 2014 to November 2017. Analyses indicate that phase speeds of infra-gravity wave and tsunami excitation in the 0.003 to 0.02 Hz band are 70 m/s, corresponding to the low frequency limit of flexural-gravity waves. Median spectral amplitudes in this band decay exponentially with distance from the shelf edge in a manner consistent with intrinsic attenuation. Seismic Q is typically 7-9, with an RMS amplitude decay of 0.04-0.05dB/km and an e-folding distance of 175-220 km. Amplitudes do not appear to drop crossing crevasse fields. Vertical and horizontal acceleration levels at stations on the floating ice shelf are 50 dB higher than those on grounded ice. Horizontal accelerations are about 15 dB higher than vertical accelerations. Median spectral levels at 0.003 Hz are within 6 dB for stations from 2 to 430 km from the shelf edge. In contrast, the levels drop by 90 dB at 0.02 Hz. Ocean gravity wave excitation has been proposed as a mechanism that can weaken ice shelves and potentially trigger disintegration events. These measurements indicate that the propensity for shelf weakening and disintegration decays exponentially with distance from the ice front for gravity waves in the 0.003 to 0.02Hz band.

Recent dynamic changes on Fleming Glacier after the disintegration of Wordie Ice Shelf, Antarctic Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Friedl, Peter; Seehaus, Thorsten C.; Wendt, Anja; Braun, Matthias H.; Höppner, Kathrin

2018-04-01

The Antarctic Peninsula is one of the world's regions most affected by climate change. Several ice shelves have retreated, thinned or completely disintegrated during recent decades, leading to acceleration and increased calving of their tributary glaciers. Wordie Ice Shelf, located in Marguerite Bay at the south-western side of the Antarctic Peninsula, completely disintegrated in a series of events between the 1960s and the late 1990s. We investigate the long-term dynamics (1994-2016) of Fleming Glacier after the disintegration of Wordie Ice Shelf by analysing various multi-sensor remote sensing data sets. We present a dense time series of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) surface velocities that reveals a rapid acceleration of Fleming Glacier in 2008 and a phase of further gradual acceleration and upstream propagation of high velocities in 2010-2011.The timing in acceleration correlates with strong upwelling events of warm circumpolar deep water (CDW) into Wordie Bay, most likely leading to increased submarine melt. This, together with continuous dynamic thinning and a deep subglacial trough with a retrograde bed slope close to the terminus probably, has induced unpinning of the glacier tongue in 2008 and gradual grounding line retreat between 2010 and 2011. Our data suggest that the glacier's grounding line had retreated by ˜ 6-9 km between 1996 and 2011, which caused ˜ 56 km2 of the glacier tongue to go afloat. The resulting reduction in buttressing explains a median speedup of ˜ 1.3 m d-1 ( ˜ 27 %) between 2008 and 2011, which we observed along a centre line extending between the grounding line in 1996 and ˜ 16 km upstream. Current median ice thinning rates (2011-2014) along profiles in areas below 1000 m altitude range between ˜ 2.6 to 3.2 m a-1 and are ˜ 70 % higher than between 2004 and 2008. Our study shows that Fleming Glacier is far away from approaching a new equilibrium and that the glacier dynamics are not primarily controlled by the loss of the

Observational Evidence for Enhanced Greenhouse Effect Reinforcing Wintertime Arctic Amplification and Sea Ice Melting Onset

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Y.; Liang, S.

2017-12-01

Despite an apparent hiatus in global warming, the Arctic climate continues to experience unprecedented changes. Summer sea ice is retreating at an accelerated rate, and surface temperatures in this region are rising at a rate double that of the global average, a phenomenon known as Arctic amplification. Although a lot of efforts have been made, the causes this unprecedented phenomenon remain unclear and are subjects of considerable debate. In this study, we report strong observational evidence, for the first time from long-term (1984-2014) spatially complete satellite records, that increased cloudiness and atmospheric water vapor in winter and spring have caused an extraordinary downward longwave radiative flux to the ice surface, which may then amplify the Arctic wintertime ice-surface warming. In addition, we also provide observed evidence that it is quite likely the enhancement of the wintertime greenhouse effect caused by water vapor and cloudiness has advanced the time of onset of ice melting in mid-May through inhibiting sea-ice refreezing in the winter and accelerating the pre-melting process in the spring, and in turn triggered the positive sea-ice albedo feedback process and accelerated the sea ice melting in the summer.

Ion Irradiation of H2-Laden Porous Water-ice Films: Implications for Interstellar Ices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raut, U.; Mitchell, E. H.; Baragiola, R. A.

2015-10-01

To understand the effects of cosmic-ray (CR) impacts on interstellar icy grains immersed in H2 gas, we have irradiated porous water-ice films loaded with H2 with 100 keV H+. The ice films were exposed to H2 gas at different pressures following deposition and during irradiation. A net H2 loss is observed during irradiation due to competition between ion-induced sputtering and gas adsorption. The initial H2 loss cross-section, 4(1) × 10-14 cm2, was independent of film thickness, H2, and proton fluxes. In addition to sputtering, irradiation also closes nanopores, trapping H2 in the film with binding that exceeds physical absorption energies. As a result, 2%-7% H2 is retained in the ice following irradiation to high fluences. We find that the trapped H2 concentration increases with decreasing Φ, the ratio of ion to H2 fluxes, suggesting that as high as 8% solid H2 can be trapped in interstellar ice by CR or stellar wind impacts.

Accelerated soil carbon loss by biological changes under warming in Alaskan tundra

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, J.; Schuur, E.; Luo, Y.; Cole, J. R.; Jiang, L.; Konstantinidis, K.; Mauritz, M.; Natali, S.; Pegoraro, E.; Penton, C. R.; Plaza, C.; Salmon, V. G.; Shi, Z.; Tiedje, J. M.; Wu, L.; Xia, J.; Zhou, J.

2016-12-01

Permafrost regions, which contain a large amount of temperature-protected organic carbon (C), could be a significant C source as climate gets warmer. Climate warming can result in physical (e.g., temperature rise and permafrost thaw) and biological (e.g., microbial community composition) changes in the permafrost regions. While it is well agreed that physical changes can accelerate C releases to the atmosphere by increasing thermodynamic reaction rates and the accessibility of soil organic C (SOC) to decomposers, how biological changes impact permafrost soil C loss is still unclear. In this study, we quantified the impact of the biological changes on soil C loss in an Alaskan tundra through combining a process-based model and a unique field experiment. Our results showed that warming reduced the allocation of gross primary production to plants. In addition, warming significantly changed soil microbial functional community structure and consequently, stimulated the turnover rate of SOC, but decreased the C use efficiency. The altered biological properties significantly intensified soil C loss. Our study suggests that the predicted C loss in the permafrost regions may be underestimated due to the absence of the biological changes in Earth system models.

Validation of the Antarctic Snow Accumulation and Ice Discharge Basal Stress Boundary in the South Eastern Region of the Ross Ice Shelf, Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nelson, C. B.; King, K.

2015-12-01

The largest ice shelf in Antarctic, Ross Ice Shelf, was investigated over the years of (1970-2015). Near the basal stress boundary between the ice shelf and the West Antarctic ice sheet, ice velocity ranges from a few meters per year to several hundred meters per year in ice streams. Most of the drainage from West Antarctica into the Ross Ice Shelf flows down two major ice streams, each of which discharges more than 20 km3 of ice each year. Along with velocity changes, the warmest water below parts of the Ross Ice Shelf resides in the lowest portion of the water column because of its high salinity. Vertical mixing caused by tidal stirring can thus induce ablation by lifting the warm water into contact with the ice shelf. This process can cause melting over a period of time and eventually cause breakup of ice shelf. With changes occurring over many years a validation is needed for the Antarctic Snow Accumulation and Ice Discharge (ASAID) basal stress boundary created in 2003. After the 2002 Larsen B Ice Shelf disintegration, nearby glaciers in the Antarctic Peninsula accelerated up to eight times their original speed over the next 18 months. Similar losses of ice tongues in Greenland have caused speed-ups of two to three times the flow rates in just one year. Rapid changes occurring in regions surrounding Antarctica are causing concern in the polar science community to research changes occurring in coastal zones over time. During the research, the team completed study on the Ross Ice Shelf located on the south western coast of the Antarctic. The study included a validation of the ABSB vs. the natural basal stress boundary (NBSB) along the Ross Ice Shelf. The ASAID BSB was created in 2003 by a team of researchers headed by National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Space Flight Center (NASA GSFC), with an aim of studying coastal deviations as it pertains to the mass balance of the entire continent. The point data file was aimed at creating a replica of the

Ice Crystal Icing Engine Testing in the NASA Glenn Research Center's Propulsion Systems Laboratory (PSL): Altitude Investigation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oliver, Michael J.

2015-01-01

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration conducted a full scale ice crystal icing turbofan engine test in the NASA Glenn Research Centers Propulsion Systems Laboratory (PSL) Facility in February 2013. Honeywell Engines supplied the test article, an obsolete, unmodified Lycoming ALF502-R5 turbofan engine serial number LF01 that experienced an un-commanded loss of thrust event while operating at certain high altitude ice crystal icing conditions. These known conditions were duplicated in the PSL for this testing.

The possibility of a tipping point in the Arctic sea ice cover, and associated early-warning signals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jastamin Steene, Rebekka

2017-04-01

As the Arctic sea ice has become one of the primer indicators of global climate change, with a seemingly accelerated loss in both ice extent and volume the latest decades, the existence of a tipping point related to the Arctic sea ice cover has been widely debated. Several observed and potential abrupt transitions in the climate system may be interpreted as bifurcations in randomly driven dynamical systems. This means that a system approaching a bifurcation point shifts from one stable state to another, and we say that the system is subject to a critical transition. As the equilibrium states become unstable in the vicinity of a bifurcation point the characteristic relaxation times increases, and the system is said to experience a "critical slowing down". This makes it plausible to observe so called early-warning signals (EWS) when approaching a critical transition. In the Arctic non-linear mechanisms like the temperature response of the ice-albedo feedback can potentially cause a sudden shift to an ice-free Arctic Ocean. Using bifurcation theory and potential analyses we examine time series of observational data of the Arctic sea ice, investigating the possibility of multiple states in the behavior of the ice cover. We further debate whether a shift between states is irreversible, and whether it can be preluded by early-warning signals.

Sub-ice-shelf sediments record history of twentieth-century retreat of Pine Island Glacier.

PubMed

Smith, J A; Andersen, T J; Shortt, M; Gaffney, A M; Truffer, M; Stanton, T P; Bindschadler, R; Dutrieux, P; Jenkins, A; Hillenbrand, C-D; Ehrmann, W; Corr, H F J; Farley, N; Crowhurst, S; Vaughan, D G

2017-01-05

The West Antarctic Ice Sheet is one of the largest potential sources of rising sea levels. Over the past 40 years, glaciers flowing into the Amundsen Sea sector of the ice sheet have thinned at an accelerating rate, and several numerical models suggest that unstable and irreversible retreat of the grounding line-which marks the boundary between grounded ice and floating ice shelf-is underway. Understanding this recent retreat requires a detailed knowledge of grounding-line history, but the locations of the grounding line before the advent of satellite monitoring in the 1990s are poorly dated. In particular, a history of grounding-line retreat is required to understand the relative roles of contemporaneous ocean-forced change and of ongoing glacier response to an earlier perturbation in driving ice-sheet loss. Here we show that the present thinning and retreat of Pine Island Glacier in West Antarctica is part of a climatically forced trend that was triggered in the 1940s. Our conclusions arise from analysis of sediment cores recovered beneath the floating Pine Island Glacier ice shelf, and constrain the date at which the grounding line retreated from a prominent seafloor ridge. We find that incursion of marine water beyond the crest of this ridge, forming an ocean cavity beneath the ice shelf, occurred in 1945 (±12 years); final ungrounding of the ice shelf from the ridge occurred in 1970 (±4 years). The initial opening of this ocean cavity followed a period of strong warming of West Antarctica, associated with El Niño activity. Thus our results suggest that, even when climate forcing weakened, ice-sheet retreat continued.

Observationally constrained projections of Antarctic ice sheet instability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Edwards, Tamsin; Ritz, Catherine; Durand, Gael; Payne, Anthony; Peyaud, Vincent; Hindmarsh, Richard

2015-04-01

Large parts of the Antarctic ice sheet lie on bedrock below sea level and may be vulnerable to a positive feedback known as Marine Ice Sheet Instability (MISI), a self-sustaining retreat of the grounding line triggered by oceanic or atmospheric changes. There is growing evidence MISI may be underway throughout the Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE) of West Antarctica, induced by circulation of warm Circumpolar Deep Water. If this retreat is sustained the region could contribute up to 1-2 m to global mean sea level, and if triggered in other areas the potential contribution to sea level on centennial to millennial timescales could be two to three times greater. However, physically plausible projections of Antarctic MISI are challenging: numerical ice sheet models are too low in spatial resolution to resolve grounding line processes or else too computationally expensive to assess modelling uncertainties, and no dynamical models exist of the ocean-atmosphere-ice sheet system. Furthermore, previous numerical ice sheet model projections for Antarctica have not been calibrated with observations, which can reduce uncertainties. Here we estimate the probability of dynamic mass loss in the event of MISI under a medium climate scenario, assessing 16 modelling uncertainties and calibrating the projections with observed mass losses in the ASE from 1992-2011. We project losses of up to 30 cm sea level equivalent (SLE) by 2100 and 72 cm SLE by 2200 (95% credibility interval: CI). Our results are substantially lower than previous estimates. The ASE sustains substantial losses, 83% of the continental total by 2100 and 67% by 2200 (95% CI), but in other regions losses are limited by ice dynamical theory, observations, or a lack of projected triggers.

Recent Antarctic Peninsula warming relative to Holocene climate and ice-shelf history.

PubMed

Mulvaney, Robert; Abram, Nerilie J; Hindmarsh, Richard C A; Arrowsmith, Carol; Fleet, Louise; Triest, Jack; Sime, Louise C; Alemany, Olivier; Foord, Susan

2012-09-06

Rapid warming over the past 50 years on the Antarctic Peninsula is associated with the collapse of a number of ice shelves and accelerating glacier mass loss. In contrast, warming has been comparatively modest over West Antarctica and significant changes have not been observed over most of East Antarctica, suggesting that the ice-core palaeoclimate records available from these areas may not be representative of the climate history of the Antarctic Peninsula. Here we show that the Antarctic Peninsula experienced an early-Holocene warm period followed by stable temperatures, from about 9,200 to 2,500 years ago, that were similar to modern-day levels. Our temperature estimates are based on an ice-core record of deuterium variations from James Ross Island, off the northeastern tip of the Antarctic Peninsula. We find that the late-Holocene development of ice shelves near James Ross Island was coincident with pronounced cooling from 2,500 to 600 years ago. This cooling was part of a millennial-scale climate excursion with opposing anomalies on the eastern and western sides of the Antarctic Peninsula. Although warming of the northeastern Antarctic Peninsula began around 600 years ago, the high rate of warming over the past century is unusual (but not unprecedented) in the context of natural climate variability over the past two millennia. The connection shown here between past temperature and ice-shelf stability suggests that warming for several centuries rendered ice shelves on the northeastern Antarctic Peninsula vulnerable to collapse. Continued warming to temperatures that now exceed the stable conditions of most of the Holocene epoch is likely to cause ice-shelf instability to encroach farther southward along the Antarctic Peninsula.

Oceanic Low Blows Hitting Ice Sheets Where It Hurts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bindschadler, Robert

2006-01-01

The recent acceleration, thinning and retreat of large outlet glaciers in both Antarctica and Greenland is altering the mass balance of these two large ice sheets and increasing their contribution to rising sea level. In this short Perspective solicited by Science for a special March 24th issue on sea level change, I argue that the cause of these bihemispheric changes is that warmer water has gained access to the undersides of these glaciers where they come afloat from the continent. This process is particularly effective at accelerating glaciers because the beds of the large outlet glaciers are well below sea level (1000 meters or more) but "guarded" downstream by a shallow moraine formed when the glacier was more advanced. Once warmer water can breach this moraine, it sinks in the colder, fresh water behind the moraine and reaches the submarine front of the glacier. The pressure melting effect lowers the melting point of this deep ice allowing the warmer water to melt ice at rates of many tens of meters per year. This melting reduces . the frictional hold of the bed on the ice, allowing the ice to accelerate in agreement with the observations, Hansen has discussed the likelihood that approximately half of the Earth's radiation imbalance is manifesting in warmer ocean waters and Levitus et al. have seen warming in ocean temperature measurements at mid and low latitudes. The behavior of these outlet glaciers indicates this ocean warmth is reaching polar waters. The prognosis is for a continuation of this process, more negative ice sheet mass balances and increased rates of sea level rise.

Forecasting Future Sea Ice Conditions: A Lagrangian Approach

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-09-30

1 DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Forecasting Future Sea Ice Conditions: A Lagrangian ...GCMs participating in IPCC AR5 agree with observed source region patterns from the satellite- derived dataset. 4- Compare Lagrangian ice... Lagrangian sea-ice back trajectories to estimate thermodynamic and dynamic (advection) ice loss. APPROACH We use a Lagrangian trajectory model to

Temporal constraints on future accumulation-area loss of a major Arctic ice cap due to climate change (Vestfonna, Svalbard)

PubMed Central

Möller, Marco; Schneider, Christoph

2015-01-01

Arctic glaciers and ice caps are major contributors to past, present and future sea-level fluctuations. Continued global warming may eventually lead to the equilibrium line altitudes of these ice masses rising above their highest points, triggering unstoppable downwasting. This may feed future sea-level rise considerably. We here present projections for the timing of equilibrium-line loss at the major Arctic ice cap Vestfonna, Svalbard. The projections are based on spatially distributed climatic mass balance modelling driven by the outputs of multiple climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) forced by the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5. Results indicate strongly decreasing climatic mass balances over the 21st century for all RCPs considered. Glacier-wide mass-balance rates will drop down to −4 m a−1 w.e. (water equivalent) at a maximum. The date at which the equilibrium line rises above the summit of Vestfonna (630 m above sea level) is calculated to range between 2040 and 2150, depending on scenario. PMID:25628045

New marine geophysical and sediment record of the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Callard, L.; Roberts, D. H.; O'Cofaigh, C.; Lloyd, J. M.; Smith, J. A.; Dorschel, B.

2017-12-01

The NE Greenland Ice Stream (NEGIS) drains 16% of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) and has a sea-level equivalent of 1.1-1.4 m. Stabilised by two floating ice shelves, 79N and Zachariae Isstrom, until recently it has shown little response to increased atmospheric and oceanic warming. However, since 2010 it has experienced an accelerated rate of grounding line retreat ( 4 km) and significant ice shelf loss that indicates that this sector of the GrIS is now responding to current oceanic and/or climatic change and has the potential to be a major contributor to future global sea-level rise. The project `NEGIS', a collaboration between Durham University and AWI, aims to reconstruct the history of the NE Greenland Ice Stream from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to present using both onshore and offshore geological archives to better understand past ice stream response to a warming climate. This contribution presents results and interpretations from an offshore dataset collected on the RV Polarstern, cruises PS100 and PS109 in 2016 and 2017. Gravity and box cores, supplemented by swath bathymetric and sub-bottom profiler data, were acquired and initial core analysis including x-radiographs and MSCL data logging has been performed. Data collection focused principally in the Norske Trough and the area directly in front of the 79N ice shelf, a sub-ice shelf environment as recently as two years ago. On the outer shelf streamlined subglacial bedforms, grounding-zone wedges and moraines as well as overconsolidated subglacial tills, record an extensive ice sheet advance to the shelf edge. On the inner shelf and in front of the 79N ice shelf, deep, glacially-eroded bedrock basins are infilled with stratified sediment. The stratified muds represent deglacial and Holocene glacimarine sedimentation, and capture the recent transition from sub-ice shelf to shelf free conditions. Multiproxy palaeoenvironmental reconstructions, including foraminifera and diatom analysis, and radiocarbon

Clouds enhance Greenland ice sheet meltwater runoff

PubMed Central

Van Tricht, K.; Lhermitte, S.; Lenaerts, J. T. M.; Gorodetskaya, I. V.; L'Ecuyer, T. S.; Noël, B.; van den Broeke, M. R.; Turner, D. D.; van Lipzig, N. P. M.

2016-01-01

The Greenland ice sheet has become one of the main contributors to global sea level rise, predominantly through increased meltwater runoff. The main drivers of Greenland ice sheet runoff, however, remain poorly understood. Here we show that clouds enhance meltwater runoff by about one-third relative to clear skies, using a unique combination of active satellite observations, climate model data and snow model simulations. This impact results from a cloud radiative effect of 29.5 (±5.2) W m−2. Contrary to conventional wisdom, however, the Greenland ice sheet responds to this energy through a new pathway by which clouds reduce meltwater refreezing as opposed to increasing surface melt directly, thereby accelerating bare-ice exposure and enhancing meltwater runoff. The high sensitivity of the Greenland ice sheet to both ice-only and liquid-bearing clouds highlights the need for accurate cloud representations in climate models, to better predict future contributions of the Greenland ice sheet to global sea level rise. PMID:26756470

Clouds enhance Greenland ice sheet meltwater runoff.

PubMed

Van Tricht, K; Lhermitte, S; Lenaerts, J T M; Gorodetskaya, I V; L'Ecuyer, T S; Noël, B; van den Broeke, M R; Turner, D D; van Lipzig, N P M

2016-01-12

The Greenland ice sheet has become one of the main contributors to global sea level rise, predominantly through increased meltwater runoff. The main drivers of Greenland ice sheet runoff, however, remain poorly understood. Here we show that clouds enhance meltwater runoff by about one-third relative to clear skies, using a unique combination of active satellite observations, climate model data and snow model simulations. This impact results from a cloud radiative effect of 29.5 (±5.2) W m(-2). Contrary to conventional wisdom, however, the Greenland ice sheet responds to this energy through a new pathway by which clouds reduce meltwater refreezing as opposed to increasing surface melt directly, thereby accelerating bare-ice exposure and enhancing meltwater runoff. The high sensitivity of the Greenland ice sheet to both ice-only and liquid-bearing clouds highlights the need for accurate cloud representations in climate models, to better predict future contributions of the Greenland ice sheet to global sea level rise.

Turbulent heat exchange between water and ice at an evolving ice-water interface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramudu, E.; Hirsh, B.; Olson, P.; Gnanadesikan, A.

2016-02-01

Experimental results are presented on the time evolution of ice subject to a turbulent shear flow in a layer of water of uniform depth. Our study is motivated by observations in the ocean cavity beneath Antarctic ice shelves, where shoaling of Circumpolar Deep Water into the cavity has been implicated in the accelerated melting of the ice shelf base. Measurements of inflow and outflow at the ice shelf front have shown that not all of the heat entering the cavity is delivered to the ice shelf, suggesting that turbulent transfer to the ice represents an important bottleneck. Given that a range of turbulent transfer coefficients has been used in models it is important to better constrain this parameter. We measure as a function of time in our experiments the thickness of the ice, temperatures in the ice and water, and fluid velocity in the shear flow, starting from an initial condition in which the water is at rest and the ice has grown by conduction above a cold plate. The strength of the applied turbulent shear flow is represented in terms of a Reynolds number Re, which is varied over the range 3.5 × 103 ≤ Re ≤ 1.9 × 104. Transient partial melting of the ice occurs at the lower end of this range of Re and complete transient melting of the ice occurs at the higher end of the range. Following these melting transients, the ice reforms at a rate that is independent of Re. We fit to our experimental measurements of ice thickness and temperature a one-dimensional model for the evolution of the ice thickness in which the turbulent heat transfer is parameterized in terms of the friction velocity of the shear flow. Comparison with the Pine Island Glacier Ice Shelf yields qualitative agreement between the transient ice melting rates predicted by our model and the shelf melting rate inferred from the field observations.

Observations reveal external driver for Arctic sea-ice retreat

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Notz, Dirk; Marotzke, Jochem

2012-04-01

The very low summer extent of Arctic sea ice that has been observed in recent years is often casually interpreted as an early-warning sign of anthropogenic global warming. For examining the validity of this claim, previously IPCC model simulations have been used. Here, we focus on the available observational record to examine if this record allows us to identify either internal variability, self-acceleration, or a specific external forcing as the main driver for the observed sea-ice retreat. We find that the available observations are sufficient to virtually exclude internal variability and self-acceleration as an explanation for the observed long-term trend, clustering, and magnitude of recent sea-ice minima. Instead, the recent retreat is well described by the superposition of an externally forced linear trend and internal variability. For the externally forced trend, we find a physically plausible strong correlation only with increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration. Our results hence show that the observed evolution of Arctic sea-ice extent is consistent with the claim that virtually certainly the impact of an anthropogenic climate change is observable in Arctic sea ice already today.

Cosmic ray spectrum and composition from three years of IceTop and IceCube

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rawlins, K.; IceCube Collaboration

2016-05-01

IceTop is the surface component of the IceCube Observatory, composed of frozen water tanks at the top of IceCube’s strings. Data from this detector can be analyzed in different ways with the goal of measuring cosmic ray spectrum and composition. The shower size S125 from IceTop alone can be used as a proxy for primary energy, and unfolded into an all-particle spectrum. In addition, S125 from the surface can be combined with high-energy muon energy loss information from the deep IceCube detector for those air showers which pass through both. Using these coincident events in a complementary analysis, both the spectrum and mass composition of primary cosmic rays can be extracted in parallel using a neural network. Both of these analyses have been performed on three years of IceTop and IceCube data. Both all-particle spectra as well as individual spectra for elemental groups are presented.

Deicing and Anti-Icing Unite

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2002-01-01

With funding from Glenn's Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) program, Cox & Company, Inc., built an ice protection system that combines thermal anti-icing and mechanical deicing to keep airfoils (wings and other lifting surfaces) clear of ice. Cox's concept was to combine an anti-icing system with NASA's Electro-Mechanical Expulsion Deicing System, a mechanical deicer. The anti-icing element of this hybrid would reduce the aerodynamic losses associated with deicing systems. The Cox Low Power Ice Protection System is the first new aircraft ice protection system that has been approved by the Federal Aviation Administration for use on a business jet in 40 years. While the system is currently sized for Premier class aircraft, there are no apparent constraints prohibiting its use on aircraft of any size. The company is investigating further applications, such as adapting the system for unmanned aerial vehicles and other military aircraft.

The Broken Belt: Meteorite Concentrations on Stranded Ice

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Harvey, R. P.

2003-01-01

Since the first Antarctic meteorite concentrations were discovered more than 25 years ago, many theories regarding the role of iceflow in the production of meteorite concentrations have been put forward, and most agree on the basic principles. These models suggest that as the East Antarctic icesheet flows toward the margins of the continent, meteorites randomly located within the volume of ice are transported toward the icesheet margin. Where mountains or subsurface obstructions block glacial flow, diversion of ice around or over an obstruction reduces horizontal ice movement rates adjacent to the barriers and creates a vertical (upward) component of movement. If local mechanisms for ice loss (ablation) exist at such sites, an equilibrium surface will develop according to the balance between ice supply and loss, and the cargo of meteorites is exhumed on a blue ice surface. The result is a conceptual conveyor belt bringing meteorite-bearing volumes of ice from the interior of the continent to stagnant or slowmoving surfaces where ice is then lost and a precious cargo is left as a lag deposit. Cassidy et al. provides an excellent overview of how this model has been adapted to several Antarctic stranding surfaces.

Depth, ice thickness, and ice-out timing cause divergent hydrologic responses among Arctic lakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Arp, Christopher D.; Jones, Benjamin M.; Liljedahl, Anna K.; Hinkel, Kenneth M.; Welker, Jeffery A.

2015-01-01

Lakes are prevalent in the Arctic and thus play a key role in regional hydrology. Since many Arctic lakes are shallow and ice grows thick (historically 2-m or greater), seasonal ice commonly freezes to the lake bed (bedfast ice) by winter's end. Bedfast ice fundamentally alters lake energy balance and melt-out processes compared to deeper lakes that exceed the maximum ice thickness (floating ice) and maintain perennial liquid water below floating ice. Our analysis of lakes in northern Alaska indicated that ice-out of bedfast ice lakes occurred on average 17 days earlier (22-June) than ice-out on adjacent floating ice lakes (9-July). Earlier ice-free conditions in bedfast ice lakes caused higher open-water evaporation, 28% on average, relative to floating ice lakes and this divergence increased in lakes closer to the coast and in cooler summers. Water isotopes (18O and 2H) indicated similar differences in evaporation between these lake types. Our analysis suggests that ice regimes created by the combination of lake depth relative to ice thickness and associated ice-out timing currently cause a strong hydrologic divergence among Arctic lakes. Thus understanding the distribution and dynamics of lakes by ice regime is essential for predicting regional hydrology. An observed regime shift in lakes to floating ice conditions due to thinner ice growth may initially offset lake drying because of lower evaporative loss from this lake type. This potential negative feedback caused by winter processes occurs in spite of an overall projected increase in evapotranspiration as the Arctic climate warms.

An experimental demonstration that early-life competitive disadvantage accelerates telomere loss.

PubMed

Nettle, Daniel; Monaghan, Pat; Gillespie, Robert; Brilot, Ben; Bedford, Thomas; Bateson, Melissa

2015-01-07

Adverse experiences in early life can exert powerful delayed effects on adult survival and health. Telomere attrition is a potentially important mechanism in such effects. One source of early-life adversity is the stress caused by competitive disadvantage. Although previous avian experiments suggest that competitive disadvantage may accelerate telomere attrition, they do not clearly isolate the effects of competitive disadvantage from other sources of variation. Here, we present data from an experiment in European starlings (Sturnus vulgaris) that used cross-fostering to expose siblings to divergent early experience. Birds were assigned either to competitive advantage (being larger than their brood competitors) or competitive disadvantage (being smaller than their brood competitors) between days 3 and 12 post-hatching. Disadvantage did not affect weight gain, but it increased telomere attrition, leading to shorter telomere length in disadvantaged birds by day 12. There were no effects of disadvantage on oxidative damage as measured by plasma lipid peroxidation. We thus found strong evidence that early-life competitive disadvantage can accelerate telomere loss. This could lead to faster age-related deterioration and poorer health in later life.

Long-term monitoring of glacier dynamics of Fleming Glacier after the disintegration of Wordie Ice Shelf, Antarctic Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Friedl, Peter; Seehaus, Thorsten; Wendt, Anja; Braun, Matthias

2017-04-01

The Antarctic Peninsula is one of the world`s most affected regions by Climate Change. Dense and long time series of remote sensing data enable detailed studies of the rapid glaciological changes in this area. We present results of a study on Fleming Glacier, which was the major tributary glacier of former Wordie Ice Shelf, located at the south-western side of the Antarctic Peninsula. Since the ice shelf disintegrated in a series of events starting in the 1970s, only disconnected tidewater glaciers have remained today. As a reaction to the loss of the buttressing force of the ice shelf, Fleming Glacier accelerated and dynamically thinned. However, all previous studies conducted at Wordie Bay covered only relatively short investigation periods and ended in 2008 the latest. Hence it was not well known how long the process of adaption to the changing boundary conditions exactly lasts and how it is characterized in detail. We provide long time series (1994 - 2016) of glaciological parameters (i.e. ice extent, velocity, grounding line position, ice elevation) for Fleming Glacier obtained from multi-mission remote sensing data. For this purpose large datasets of previously active (e.g. ERS, Envisat, ALOS PALSAR, Radarsat-1) as well as currently recording SAR sensors (e.g. Sentinel-1, TerraSAR-X, TanDEM-X) were processed and combined with data from other sources (e.g. optical images, laser altimeter and ice thickness data). The high temporal resolution of our dataset enables us to present a detailed history of 22 years of glacial dynamics at Fleming Glacier after the disintegration of Wordie Ice Shelf. We found strong evidence for a rapid grounding line retreat of up to 13 km between 2008 and 2011, which led to a further amplification of dynamic ice thinning. Today Fleming Glacier seems to be far away from approaching a new equilibrium. Our data show that the current glacier dynamics of Fleming Glacier are not primarily controlled by the loss of the ice shelf anymore, but

Ocean-driven thinning enhances iceberg calving and retreat of Antarctic ice shelves

PubMed Central

Liu, Yan; Moore, John C.; Cheng, Xiao; Gladstone, Rupert M.; Bassis, Jeremy N.; Liu, Hongxing; Wen, Jiahong; Hui, Fengming

2015-01-01

Iceberg calving from all Antarctic ice shelves has never been directly measured, despite playing a crucial role in ice sheet mass balance. Rapid changes to iceberg calving naturally arise from the sporadic detachment of large tabular bergs but can also be triggered by climate forcing. Here we provide a direct empirical estimate of mass loss due to iceberg calving and melting from Antarctic ice shelves. We find that between 2005 and 2011, the total mass loss due to iceberg calving of 755 ± 24 gigatonnes per year (Gt/y) is only half the total loss due to basal melt of 1516 ± 106 Gt/y. However, we observe widespread retreat of ice shelves that are currently thinning. Net mass loss due to iceberg calving for these ice shelves (302 ± 27 Gt/y) is comparable in magnitude to net mass loss due to basal melt (312 ± 14 Gt/y). Moreover, we find that iceberg calving from these decaying ice shelves is dominated by frequent calving events, which are distinct from the less frequent detachment of isolated tabular icebergs associated with ice shelves in neutral or positive mass balance regimes. Our results suggest that thinning associated with ocean-driven increased basal melt can trigger increased iceberg calving, implying that iceberg calving may play an overlooked role in the demise of shrinking ice shelves, and is more sensitive to ocean forcing than expected from steady state calving estimates. PMID:25733856

Ecological consequences of sea-ice decline.

PubMed

Post, Eric; Bhatt, Uma S; Bitz, Cecilia M; Brodie, Jedediah F; Fulton, Tara L; Hebblewhite, Mark; Kerby, Jeffrey; Kutz, Susan J; Stirling, Ian; Walker, Donald A

2013-08-02

After a decade with nine of the lowest arctic sea-ice minima on record, including the historically low minimum in 2012, we synthesize recent developments in the study of ecological responses to sea-ice decline. Sea-ice loss emerges as an important driver of marine and terrestrial ecological dynamics, influencing productivity, species interactions, population mixing, gene flow, and pathogen and disease transmission. Major challenges in the near future include assigning clearer attribution to sea ice as a primary driver of such dynamics, especially in terrestrial systems, and addressing pressures arising from human use of arctic coastal and near-shore areas as sea ice diminishes.

Common-midpoint radar surveys of ice sheets: a tool for better ice and bed property inversions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holschuh, N.; Christianson, K.; Anandakrishnan, S.; Alley, R. B.; Jacobel, R. W.

2016-12-01

In response to the demand for observationally derived boundary conditions in ice-sheet models, geophysicists are striving to more quantitatively interpret the reflection amplitudes of ice penetrating radar data. Inversions for ice-flow parameters and basal properties typically use common-offset radar data, which contain a single observation of bed reflection amplitude at each location in the survey; however, the radar equation has more than one unknown - ice temperature, subglacial water content, and bedrock roughness cannot be uniquely determined without additional constraints. In this study, we adapt traditional seismic property inversion techniques to radar data, using additional information collected with a common-midpoint (CMP) radar survey geometry (which varies the source-receiver offset for each subsurface target). Using two of the first common-midpoint ice-penetrating radar data sets collected over thick ice in Antarctica and Greenland, we test the hypothesis that these data can be used to disentangle the contributions of ice conductivity and bed permittivity to the received reflection amplitudes. We focus specifically on the corrections for the angular dependence of antenna gain and surface reflectivity, refractive focusing effects, and surface scattering losses. Inferred temperature profiles, derived from the constrained ice conductivities at Kamb Ice Stream and the North East Greenland Ice Stream, suggest higher than expected depth-integrated temperatures, as well as non-physical depth trends (with elevated temperatures near the surface). We hypothesize that this is driven in part by offset-dependent interferences between the sub-wavelength layers that make up a single nadir reflection, and present a convolutional model that describes how this interference might systematically reduce reflection power with offset (thereby elevating the inferred attenuation rate). If these additional offset-dependent power losses can be isolated and removed, common

Polar ice-sheet contributions to sea level during past warm periods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dutton, A.

2015-12-01

Recent sea-level rise has been dominated by thermal expansion and glacier loss, but the contribution from mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets is expected to exceed other contributions under future sustained warming. Due to limitations of existing ice sheet models and the lack of relevant analogues in the historical record, projecting the timing and magnitude of polar ice sheet mass loss in the future remains challenging. One approach to improving our understanding of how polar ice-sheet retreat will unfold is to integrate observations and models of sea level, ice sheets, and climate during past intervals of warmth when the polar ice sheets contributed to higher sea levels. A recent review evaluated the evidence of polar ice sheet mass loss during several warm periods, including interglacials during the mid-Pliocene warm period, Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11, 5e (Last Interglacial), and 1 (Holocene). Sea-level benchmarks of ice-sheet retreat during the first of these three periods, when global mean climate was ~1 to 3 deg. C warmer than preindustrial, are useful for understanding the long-term potential for future sea-level rise. Despite existing uncertainties in these reconstructions, it is clear that our present climate is warming to a level associated with significant polar ice-sheet loss in the past, resulting in a conservative estimate for a global mean sea-level rise of 6 meters above present (or more). This presentation will focus on identifying the approaches that have yielded significant advances in terms of past sea level and ice sheet reconstruction as well as outstanding challenges. A key element of recent advances in sea-level reconstructions is the ability to recognize and quantify the imprint of geophysical processes, such as glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) and dynamic topography, that lead to significant spatial variability in sea level reconstructions. Identifying specific ice-sheet sources that contributed to higher sea levels

Relationship between Physiological Off-Ice Testing, On-Ice Skating, and Game Performance in Division I Women's Ice Hockey Players.

PubMed

Boland, Michelle; Miele, Emily M; Delude, Katie

2017-10-07

The purpose was to identify off-ice testing variables that correlate to skating and game performance in Division I collegiate women ice hockey players. Twenty female, forward and defensive players (19.95 ± 1.35 yr) were assessed for weight, height, percent fat mass (%FAT), bone mineral density, predicted one repetition maximum (RM) absolute and relative (REL%) bench press (BP) and hex bar deadlift (HDL), lower body explosive power, anaerobic power, countermovement vertical jump (CMJ), maximum inspiratory pressure (MIP), and on-ice repeated skate sprint (RSS) performance. The on-ice RSS test included 6 timed 85.6 m sprints with participants wearing full hockey equipment; fastest time (FT), average time (AT) and fatigue index (FI) for the first length skate (FLS; 10 m) and total length skate (TLS; 85.6 m) were used for analysis. Game performance was evaluated with game statistics: goals, assists, points, plus-minus, and shots on goal (SOG). Correlation coefficients were used to determine relationships. Percent fat mass was positively correlated (p < 0.05) with FLS-FI and TLS-AT; TLS-FT was negatively correlated with REL%HDL; BP-RM was negatively correlated with FLS-FT and FLS-AT; MIP positively correlated with assists, points, and SOG; FLS-AT negatively correlated with assists. Game performance in women ice hockey players may be enhanced by greater MIP, repeat acceleration ability, and mode-specific training. Faster skating times were associated with lower %FAT. Skating performance in women ice hockey players may be enhanced by improving body composition, anaerobic power, and both lower and upper body strength in off-ice training.

Modelling seasonal meltwater forcing of the velocity of land-terminating margins of the Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koziol, Conrad P.; Arnold, Neil

2018-03-01

Surface runoff at the margin of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) drains to the ice-sheet bed, leading to enhanced summer ice flow. Ice velocities show a pattern of early summer acceleration followed by mid-summer deceleration due to evolution of the subglacial hydrology system in response to meltwater forcing. Modelling the integrated hydrological-ice dynamics system to reproduce measured velocities at the ice margin remains a key challenge for validating the present understanding of the system and constraining the impact of increasing surface runoff rates on dynamic ice mass loss from the GrIS. Here we show that a multi-component model incorporating supraglacial, subglacial, and ice dynamic components applied to a land-terminating catchment in western Greenland produces modelled velocities which are in reasonable agreement with those observed in GPS records for three melt seasons of varying melt intensities. This provides numerical support for the hypothesis that the subglacial system develops analogously to alpine glaciers and supports recent model formulations capturing the transition between distributed and channelized states. The model shows the growth of efficient conduit-based drainage up-glacier from the ice sheet margin, which develops more extensively, and further inland, as melt intensity increases. This suggests current trends of decadal-timescale slowdown of ice velocities in the ablation zone may continue in the near future. The model results also show a strong scaling between average summer velocities and melt season intensity, particularly in the upper ablation area. Assuming winter velocities are not impacted by channelization, our model suggests an upper bound of a 25 % increase in annual surface velocities as surface melt increases to 4 × present levels.

The effect of changing wind forcing on Antarctic ice shelf melting in high-resolution, global sea ice-ocean simulations with the Accelerated Climate Model for Energy (ACME)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asay-Davis, Xylar; Price, Stephen; Petersen, Mark; Wolfe, Jonathan

2017-04-01

The capability for simulating sub-ice shelf circulation and submarine melting and freezing has recently been added to the U.S. Department of Energy's Accelerated Climate Model for Energy (ACME). With this new capability, we use an eddy permitting ocean model to conduct two sets of simulations in the spirit of Spence et al. (GRL, 41, 2014), who demonstrate increased warm water upwelling along the Antarctic coast in response to poleward shifting and strengthening of Southern Ocean westerly winds. These characteristics, symptomatic of a positive Southern Annular Mode (SAM), are projected to continue into the 21st century under anthropogenic climate change (Fyfe et al., J. Clim., 20, 2007). In our first simulation, we force the climate model using the standard CORE interannual forcing dataset (Large and Yeager; Clim. Dyn., 33, 2009). In our second simulation, we force our climate model using an altered version of CORE interannual forcing, based on the latter half of the full time series, which we take as a proxy for a future climate state biased towards a positive SAM. We compare ocean model states and sub-ice shelf melt rates with observations, exploring sources of model biases as well as the effects of the two forcing scenarios.

Ice-sheet mass balance and climate change.

PubMed

Hanna, Edward; Navarro, Francisco J; Pattyn, Frank; Domingues, Catia M; Fettweis, Xavier; Ivins, Erik R; Nicholls, Robert J; Ritz, Catherine; Smith, Ben; Tulaczyk, Slawek; Whitehouse, Pippa L; Zwally, H Jay

2013-06-06

Since the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report, new observations of ice-sheet mass balance and improved computer simulations of ice-sheet response to continuing climate change have been published. Whereas Greenland is losing ice mass at an increasing pace, current Antarctic ice loss is likely to be less than some recently published estimates. It remains unclear whether East Antarctica has been gaining or losing ice mass over the past 20 years, and uncertainties in ice-mass change for West Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula remain large. We discuss the past six years of progress and examine the key problems that remain.

Anchor ice and benthic disturbance in shallow Antarctic waters: interspecific variation in initiation and propagation of ice crystals.

PubMed

Denny, Mark; Dorgan, Kelly M; Evangelista, Dennis; Hettinger, Annaliese; Leichter, James; Ruder, Warren C; Tuval, Idan

2011-10-01

Sea ice typically forms at the ocean's surface, but given a source of supercooled water, an unusual form of ice--anchor ice--can grow on objects in the water column or at the seafloor. For several decades, ecologists have considered anchor ice to be an important agent of disturbance in the shallow-water benthic communities of McMurdo Sound, Antarctica, and potentially elsewhere in polar seas. Divers have documented anchor ice in the McMurdo communities, and its presence coincides with reduced abundance of the sponge Homaxinella balfourensis, which provides habitat for a diverse assemblage of benthic organisms. However, the mechanism of this disturbance has not been explored. Here we show interspecific differences in anchor-ice formation and propagation characteristics for Antarctic benthic organisms. The sponges H. balfourensis and Suberites caminatus show increased incidence of formation and accelerated spread of ice crystals compared to urchins and sea stars. Anchor ice also forms readily on sediments, from which it can grow and adhere to organisms. Our results are consistent with, and provide a potential first step toward, an explanation for disturbance patterns observed in shallow polar benthic communities. Interspecific differences in ice formation raise questions about how surface tissue characteristics such as surface area, rugosity, and mucus coating affect ice formation on invertebrates.

Ice core carbonyl sulfide measurements from a new South Pole ice core (SPICECORE)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aydin, M.; Nicewonger, M. R.; Saltzman, E. S.

2017-12-01

Carbonyl sulfide (COS) is the most abundant sulfur gas in the troposphere with a present-day mixing ratio of about 500 ppt. Direct and indirect emissions from the oceans are the predominant sources of atmospheric COS. The primary removal mechanism is uptake by terrestrial plants during photosynthesis. Because plants do not respire COS, atmospheric COS levels are linked to terrestrial gross primary productivity (GPP). Ancient air trapped in polar ice cores has been used to reconstruct COS records of the past atmosphere, which can be used to infer past GPP variability and potential changes in oceanic COS emission. We are currently analyzing samples from a newly drilled intermediate depth ice core from South Pole, Antarctica (SPICECORE). This core is advantageous for studying COS because the cold temperatures of South Pole ice lead to very slow rates of in situ loss due to hydrolysis. One hundred and eighty-four bubbly ice core samples have been analyzed to date with gas ages ranging from about 9.2 thousand (733 m depth) to 75 years (126 m depth) before present. After a 2% correction for gravitational enrichment in the firn, the mean COS mixing ratio for the data set is 312±15 ppt (±1s), with the data set median also equal to 312 ppt. The only significant long-term trend in the record is a 5-10% increase in COS during the last 2-3 thousand years of the Holocene. The SPICECORE data agree with previously published ice core COS records from other Antarctic sites during times of overlap, confirming earlier estimates of COS loss rates to in situ hydrolysis in ice cores. Antarctic ice core data place strict constraints on the COS mixing ratio and its range of variability in the southern hemisphere atmosphere during the last several millennia. Implications for the atmospheric COS budget will be discussed.

Fractionated Stereotactic Radiotherapy of Vestibular Schwannomas Accelerates Hearing Loss

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rasmussen, Rune, E-mail: rune333@gmail.com; Claesson, Magnus; Stangerup, Sven-Eric

2012-08-01

Objective: To evaluate long-term tumor control and hearing preservation rates in patients with vestibular schwannoma treated with fractionated stereotactic radiotherapy (FSRT), comparing hearing preservation rates to an untreated control group. The relationship between radiation dose to the cochlea and hearing preservation was also investigated. Methods and Materials: Forty-two patients receiving FSRT between 1997 and 2008 with a minimum follow-up of 2 years were included. All patients received 54 Gy in 27-30 fractions during 5.5-6.0 weeks. Clinical and audiometry data were collected prospectively. From a 'wait-and-scan' group, 409 patients were selected as control subjects, matched by initial audiometric parameters. Radiation dosemore » to the cochlea was measured using the original treatment plan and then related to changes in acoustic parameters. Results: Actuarial 2-, 4-, and 10-year tumor control rates were 100%, 91.5%, and 85.0%, respectively. Twenty-one patients had serviceable hearing before FSRT, 8 of whom (38%) retained serviceable hearing at 2 years after FSRT. No patients retained serviceable hearing after 10 years. At 2 years, hearing preservation rates in the control group were 1.8 times higher compared with the group receiving FSRT (P=.007). Radiation dose to the cochlea was significantly correlated to deterioration of the speech reception threshold (P=.03) but not to discrimination loss. Conclusion: FSRT accelerates the naturally occurring hearing loss in patients with vestibular schwannoma. Our findings, using fractionation of radiotherapy, parallel results using single-dose radiation. The radiation dose to the cochlea is correlated to hearing loss measured as the speech reception threshold.« less

Watershed Sediment Losses to Lakes Accelerating Despite Agricultural Soil Conservation Efforts

PubMed Central

Heathcote, Adam J.; Filstrup, Christopher T.; Downing, John A.

2013-01-01

Agricultural soil loss and deposition in aquatic ecosystems is a problem that impairs water quality worldwide and is costly to agriculture and food supplies. In the US, for example, billions of dollars have subsidized soil and water conservation practices in agricultural landscapes over the past decades. We used paleolimnological methods to reconstruct trends in sedimentation related to human-induced landscape change in 32 lakes in the intensively agricultural region of the Midwestern United States. Despite erosion control efforts, we found accelerating increases in sediment deposition from erosion; median erosion loss since 1800 has been 15.4 tons ha−1. Sediment deposition from erosion increased >6-fold, from 149 g m−2 yr−1 in 1850 to 986 g m−2 yr−1 by 2010. Average time to accumulate one mm of sediment decreased from 631 days before European settlement (ca. 1850) to 59 days mm−1 at present. Most of this sediment was deposited in the last 50 years and is related to agricultural intensification rather than land clearance or predominance of agricultural lands. In the face of these intensive agricultural practices, traditional soil conservation programs have not decelerated downstream losses. Despite large erosion control subsidies, erosion and declining water quality continue, thus new approaches are needed to mitigate erosion and water degradation. PMID:23326454

Watershed sediment losses to lakes accelerating despite agricultural soil conservation efforts.

PubMed

Heathcote, Adam J; Filstrup, Christopher T; Downing, John A

2013-01-01

Agricultural soil loss and deposition in aquatic ecosystems is a problem that impairs water quality worldwide and is costly to agriculture and food supplies. In the US, for example, billions of dollars have subsidized soil and water conservation practices in agricultural landscapes over the past decades. We used paleolimnological methods to reconstruct trends in sedimentation related to human-induced landscape change in 32 lakes in the intensively agricultural region of the Midwestern United States. Despite erosion control efforts, we found accelerating increases in sediment deposition from erosion; median erosion loss since 1800 has been 15.4 tons ha(-1). Sediment deposition from erosion increased >6-fold, from 149 g m(-2) yr(-1) in 1850 to 986 g m(-2) yr(-1) by 2010. Average time to accumulate one mm of sediment decreased from 631 days before European settlement (ca. 1850) to 59 days mm(-1) at present. Most of this sediment was deposited in the last 50 years and is related to agricultural intensification rather than land clearance or predominance of agricultural lands. In the face of these intensive agricultural practices, traditional soil conservation programs have not decelerated downstream losses. Despite large erosion control subsidies, erosion and declining water quality continue, thus new approaches are needed to mitigate erosion and water degradation.

Ice dynamics of Heinrich events: Insights and implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alley, R. B.; Parizek, B. R.; Anandakrishnan, S.

2017-12-01

Physical understanding of ice flow provides important constraints on Heinrich (H) events, which in turn provide lessons for ice dynamics and future sea-level change. Iceberg-rafted debris (IRD), the defining feature of H events, is a complex indicator; however, in cold climates with extensive marine-ending ice, increased IRD flux records ice-shelf loss. Ice shelves fed primarily by inflow from grounded ice experience net basal melting, giving sub-ice-sedimentation rather than open-ocean IRD. Ice-shelf loss has been observed recently in response to atmospheric warming increasing surface meltwater that wedged open crevasses (Larsen B), but also by break-off following thinning from warming of waters reaching the grounding line (Jakobshavn). The H events consistently occurred during cold times resulting from reduced North Atlantic overturning circulation ("conveyor"), but as argued by Marcott et al. (PNAS 2011), this was accompanied by delayed warming at grounding-line depths of the Hudson Strait ice stream, the source of the Heinrich layers, implicating oceanic control. As shown in a rich literature, additional considerations involving thermal state of the ice-stream bed, isostasy and probably other processes influenced why some reduced-conveyor events triggered H-events while others did not. Ice shelves, including the inferred Hudson Strait ice shelf, typically exist in high-salinity, cold waters produced by brine rejection from sea-ice formation, which are the coldest abundant waters in the world ocean. Thus, almost any change in air or ocean temperature, winds or currents can remove ice shelves, because "replacement" water masses are typically warmer. And, because ice shelves almost invariably slow flow of non-floating ice into the ocean, climatic perturbations to regions with ice shelves typically lead to sea-level rise, with important implications.

The distribution of ground ice on Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mellon, M. T.; Jakosky, B. M.

1993-01-01

A wealth of geologic evidence indicates that subsurface water ice has played an important role in the evolution of Martian landforms. Theoretical models of the stability of ground ice show that in the near-surface regolith ice is currently stable at latitudes poleward of about +/- 40 deg and below a depth of a few centimeters to a meter, with some variations with longitude. If ice is not previously present at a particular location where it is stable, atmospheric water will diffuse into the regolith and condense as ice, driven by the annual subsurface thermal oscillations. The lower boundary of this ice deposit is found to occur at a depth (typically a few meters) where the annual thermal oscillations give way to the geothermal gradient. In the equatorial regions near-surface ice is currently not stable, resulting in the sublimation of any existing ice and subsequent loss to the atmosphere. However, subliming ice might be maintained at a steady-state depth, where diffusion and loss to the atmosphere are balanced by resupply from a possible deeper source of water (either deeper, not yet depleted, ice deposits or ground water). This depth is typically a few tens to hundreds of meters and depends primarily on the surface temperature and the nature of the geothermal gradient, being deeper for a higher surface temperature and a lower geothermal gradient. Such an equatorial deposit is characterized by the regolith ice content being low nearer the surface and increasing with depth in the deposit. Oscillations in the orbit will affect this picture of ground ice in two ways: by causing periodic changes in the pattern of near-surface stability and by producing subsurface thermal waves that may be capable of driving water ice deeper into the regolith.

Upper Ocean Circulation in the Glacial Northeast Atlantic during Heinrich Stadials Ice-Sheet Retreat

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toucanne, S.; Soulet, G.; Bosq, M.; Marjolaine, S.; Zaragosi, S.; Bourillet, J. F.; Bayon, G.

2016-12-01

Intermediate ocean water variability is involved in climate changes over geological timescales. As a prominent example, changes in North Atlantic subsurface water properties (including warming) during Heinrich Stadials may have triggered the so-called Heinrich events through ice-shelf loss and attendant ice-stream acceleration. While the origin of Heinrich Stadials and subsequent iceberg calving remains controversial, paleoceanographic research efforts mainly focus on the deep Atlantic overturning, leaving the upper ocean largely unexplored. To further evaluate variability in upper ocean circulation and its possible relationship with ice-sheet instabilities, a depth-transect of eight cores (BOBGEO and GITAN-TANDEM cruises) from the Northeast Atlantic (down to 2 km water depth) have been used to investigate kinematic and chemical changes in the upper ocean during the last glacial period. Our results reveal that near-bottom flow speeds (reconstructed by using sortable silt mean grain-size and X-ray fluorescence core-scanner Zr/Rb ratio) and water-masses chemistry (carbon and neodymium isotopes performed on foraminifera) substantially changed in phase with the millennial-scale climate changes recognized in the ice-core records. Our results are compared with paleoceanographic reconstructions of the 'Western Boundary Undercurrent' in order to discuss regional hydrographic differences at both sides of the North Atlantic, as well as with the fluctuations of both the marine- (through ice-rafted debris) and terrestrial-terminating ice-streams (through meltwater discharges) of the circum-Atlantic ice-sheets. Particular attention will be given to the Heinrich Stadials and concomitant Channel River meltwater discharges into the Northeast Atlantic in response to the melting of the European Ice-Sheet. This comparison helps to disentangle the cryosphere-ocean interactions throughout the last ice age, and the sequence of events occurring in the course of the Heinrich Stadials.

Climate Modeling: Ocean Cavities below Ice Shelves

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Petersen, Mark Roger

The Accelerated Climate Model for Energy (ACME), a new initiative by the U.S. Department of Energy, includes unstructured-mesh ocean, land-ice, and sea-ice components using the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) framework. The ability to run coupled high-resolution global simulations efficiently on large, high-performance computers is a priority for ACME. Sub-ice shelf ocean cavities are a significant new capability in ACME, and will be used to better understand how changing ocean temperature and currents influence glacial melting and retreat. These simulations take advantage of the horizontal variable-resolution mesh and adaptive vertical coordinate in MPAS-Ocean, in order to place high resolutionmore » below ice shelves and near grounding lines.« less

Airframe Icing Research Gaps: NASA Perspective

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Potapczuk, Mark

2009-01-01

qCurrent Airframe Icing Technology Gaps: Development of a full 3D ice accretion simulation model. Development of an improved simulation model for SLD conditions. CFD modeling of stall behavior for ice-contaminated wings/tails. Computational methods for simulation of stability and control parameters. Analysis of thermal ice protection system performance. Quantification of 3D ice shape geometric characteristics Development of accurate ground-based simulation of SLD conditions. Development of scaling methods for SLD conditions. Development of advanced diagnostic techniques for assessment of tunnel cloud conditions. Identification of critical ice shapes for aerodynamic performance degradation. Aerodynamic scaling issues associated with testing scale model ice shape geometries. Development of altitude scaling methods for thermal ice protections systems. Development of accurate parameter identification methods. Measurement of stability and control parameters for an ice-contaminated swept wing aircraft. Creation of control law modifications to prevent loss of control during icing encounters. 3D ice shape geometries. Collection efficiency data for ice shape geometries. SLD ice shape data, in-flight and ground-based, for simulation verification. Aerodynamic performance data for 3D geometries and various icing conditions. Stability and control parameter data for iced aircraft configurations. Thermal ice protection system data for simulation validation.

Calving fluxes and basal melt rates of Antarctic ice shelves.

PubMed

Depoorter, M A; Bamber, J L; Griggs, J A; Lenaerts, J T M; Ligtenberg, S R M; van den Broeke, M R; Moholdt, G

2013-10-03

Iceberg calving has been assumed to be the dominant cause of mass loss for the Antarctic ice sheet, with previous estimates of the calving flux exceeding 2,000 gigatonnes per year. More recently, the importance of melting by the ocean has been demonstrated close to the grounding line and near the calving front. So far, however, no study has reliably quantified the calving flux and the basal mass balance (the balance between accretion and ablation at the ice-shelf base) for the whole of Antarctica. The distribution of fresh water in the Southern Ocean and its partitioning between the liquid and solid phases is therefore poorly constrained. Here we estimate the mass balance components for all ice shelves in Antarctica, using satellite measurements of calving flux and grounding-line flux, modelled ice-shelf snow accumulation rates and a regional scaling that accounts for unsurveyed areas. We obtain a total calving flux of 1,321 ± 144 gigatonnes per year and a total basal mass balance of -1,454 ± 174 gigatonnes per year. This means that about half of the ice-sheet surface mass gain is lost through oceanic erosion before reaching the ice front, and the calving flux is about 34 per cent less than previous estimates derived from iceberg tracking. In addition, the fraction of mass loss due to basal processes varies from about 10 to 90 per cent between ice shelves. We find a significant positive correlation between basal mass loss and surface elevation change for ice shelves experiencing surface lowering and enhanced discharge. We suggest that basal mass loss is a valuable metric for predicting future ice-shelf vulnerability to oceanic forcing.

Improvements in Ice-Sheet Sea-Level Projections

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shepherd, Andrew; Nowicki, Sophie

2017-01-01

Ice losses from Antarctica and Greenland are the largest uncertainty in sea-level projections. Nevertheless, improvements in ice-sheet models over recent decades have led to closer agreement with satellite observations, keeping track with their increasing contribution to global sea-level rise.

Modeling Commercial Turbofan Engine Icing Risk With Ice Crystal Ingestion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jorgenson, Philip C. E.; Veres, Joseph P.

2013-01-01

The occurrence of ice accretion within commercial high bypass aircraft turbine engines has been reported under certain atmospheric conditions. Engine anomalies have taken place at high altitudes that have been attributed to ice crystal ingestion, partially melting, and ice accretion on the compression system components. The result was degraded engine performance, and one or more of the following: loss of thrust control (roll back), compressor surge or stall, and flameout of the combustor. As ice crystals are ingested into the fan and low pressure compression system, the increase in air temperature causes a portion of the ice crystals to melt. It is hypothesized that this allows the ice-water mixture to cover the metal surfaces of the compressor stationary components which leads to ice accretion through evaporative cooling. Ice accretion causes a blockage which subsequently results in the deterioration in performance of the compressor and engine. The focus of this research is to apply an engine icing computational tool to simulate the flow through a turbofan engine and assess the risk of ice accretion. The tool is comprised of an engine system thermodynamic cycle code, a compressor flow analysis code, and an ice particle melt code that has the capability of determining the rate of sublimation, melting, and evaporation through the compressor flow path, without modeling the actual ice accretion. A commercial turbofan engine which has previously experienced icing events during operation in a high altitude ice crystal environment has been tested in the Propulsion Systems Laboratory (PSL) altitude test facility at NASA Glenn Research Center. The PSL has the capability to produce a continuous ice cloud which are ingested by the engine during operation over a range of altitude conditions. The PSL test results confirmed that there was ice accretion in the engine due to ice crystal ingestion, at the same simulated altitude operating conditions as experienced previously in

Ice sheet-ocean interactions and sea level change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heimbach, Patrick

2014-03-01

Mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets has increased rapidly since the mid-1990s. Their combined loss now accounts for about one-third of global sea level rise. In Greenland, a growing body of evidence points to the marine margins of these glaciers as the region from which this dynamic response originated. Similarly, ice streams in West Antarctica that feed vast floating ice shelves have exhibited large decadal changes. We review observational evidence and present physical mechanisms that might explain the observed changes, in particular in the context of ice sheet-ocean interactions. Processes involve cover 7 orders of magnitudes of scales, ranging from mm boundary-layer processes to basin-scale coupled atmosphere-ocean variability. We discuss observational needs to fill the gap in our mechanistic understanding.

Satellite Observations of Antarctic Sea Ice Thickness and Volume

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kurtz, Nathan; Markus, Thorsten

2012-01-01

We utilize satellite laser altimetry data from ICESat combined with passive microwave measurements to analyze basin-wide changes in Antarctic sea ice thickness and volume over a 5 year period from 2003-2008. Sea ice thickness exhibits a small negative trend while area increases in the summer and fall balanced losses in thickness leading to small overall volume changes. Using a five year time-series, we show that only small ice thickness changes of less than -0.03 m/yr and volume changes of -266 cu km/yr and 160 cu km/yr occurred for the spring and summer periods, respectively. The calculated thickness and volume trends are small compared to the observational time period and interannual variability which masks the determination of long-term trend or cyclical variability in the sea ice cover. These results are in stark contrast to the much greater observed losses in Arctic sea ice volume and illustrate the different hemispheric changes of the polar sea ice covers in recent years.

Increasing nest predation will be insufficient to maintain polar bear body condition in the face of sea ice loss.

PubMed

Dey, Cody J; Richardson, Evan; McGeachy, David; Iverson, Samuel A; Gilchrist, Hugh G; Semeniuk, Christina A D

2017-05-01

Climate change can influence interspecific interactions by differentially affecting species-specific phenology. In seasonal ice environments, there is evidence that polar bear predation of Arctic bird eggs is increasing because of earlier sea ice breakup, which forces polar bears into nearshore terrestrial environments where Arctic birds are nesting. Because polar bears can consume a large number of nests before becoming satiated, and because they can swim between island colonies, they could have dramatic influences on seabird and sea duck reproductive success. However, it is unclear whether nest foraging can provide an energetic benefit to polar bear populations, especially given the capacity of bird populations to redistribute in response to increasing predation pressure. In this study, we develop a spatially explicit agent-based model of the predator-prey relationship between polar bears and common eiders, a common and culturally important bird species for northern peoples. Our model is composed of two types of agents (polar bear agents and common eider hen agents) whose movements and decision heuristics are based on species-specific bioenergetic and behavioral ecological principles, and are influenced by historical and extrapolated sea ice conditions. Our model reproduces empirical findings that polar bear predation of bird nests is increasing and predicts an accelerating relationship between advancing ice breakup dates and the number of nests depredated. Despite increases in nest predation, our model predicts that polar bear body condition during the ice-free period will continue to decline. Finally, our model predicts that common eider nests will become more dispersed and will move closer to the mainland in response to increasing predation, possibly increasing their exposure to land-based predators and influencing the livelihood of local people that collect eider eggs and down. These results show that predator-prey interactions can have nonlinear responses to

Laurentide ice-sheet instability during the last deglaciation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ullman, David J.; Carlson, Anders E.; Anslow, Faron S.; Legrande, Allegra N.; Licciardi, Joseph M.

2015-07-01

Changes in the amount of summer incoming solar radiation (insolation) reaching the Northern Hemisphere are the underlying pacemaker of glacial cycles. However, not all rises in boreal summer insolation over the past 800,000 years resulted in deglaciation to present-day ice volumes, suggesting that there may be a climatic threshold for the disappearance of land-based ice. Here we assess the surface mass balance stability of the Laurentide ice sheet--the largest glacial ice mass in the Northern Hemisphere--during the last deglaciation (24,000 to 9,000 years ago). We run a surface energy balance model with climate data from simulations with a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model for key time slices during the last deglaciation. We find that the surface mass balance of the Laurentide ice sheet was positive throughout much of the deglaciation, and suggest that dynamic discharge was mainly responsible for mass loss during this time. Total surface mass balance became negative only in the early Holocene, indicating the transition to a new state where ice loss occurred primarily by surface ablation. We conclude that the Laurentide ice sheet remained a viable ice sheet before the Holocene and began to fully deglaciate only once summer temperatures and radiative forcing over the ice sheet increased by 6-7 °C and 16-20 W m-2, respectively, relative to full glacial conditions.

Recent acceleration of ice loss in the Northern Patagonia Icefield based on an updated decennial evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

López, P.; Casassa, G.

2011-12-01

Ice elevation changes of the Northern Patagonia Icefield (NPI) were analyzed by comparing three Digital Elevation Models (DEM) corresponding to 1975 (constructed based on topographic maps), the SRTM DEM of 2000 yr and a SPOT 5 DEM of 2005. In addition, the glacier length fluctuations and the surface area evolution between 2001 and 2011 of 25 glaciers of the NPI were studied: the information extracted from the Landsat ETM+ satellite image of 11 March 2001 was compared to the measurements performed based on the Landsat ETM+ satellite image of 19 February 2011. From a global point of view, the majority of the studied glaciers thinned, retreated and lost surface between 2001 and 2011, only few glaciers (Leones, Nef, Pared Sur and Soler) located on the eastern side of the NPI have been stable. Glaciers located on the western side of the NPI suffered a stronger wasting compared to the glaciers located on the eastern side. Overall, over the ablation areas of the NPI (below 1150 m a.s.l.) a more rapid thinning of 2.6 m yr-1 occurred between 2000 and 2005 yr compared to the period 1975-2000, in which a mean thinning of 1.7 m yr-1 was measured for the same zones of the NPI. For the whole period (1975-2005) the most important thinning of the ablation areas has been estimated for HPN-1 Glacier (4.4 m yr-1) followed by Benito (3.4 m yr-1), Fraenkel (2.4 m yr-1), Gualas (2.1 m yr-1) and Acodado glaciers, all of them located on the western side of the NPI. Between 2001 and 2011, a noteworthy retreat of 1.9 km was experienced by Gualas Glacier and by Reichert Glacier with 1.6 km, both located on the north-western side of the NPI. On the south-western side of the NPI, during the same decennia, Steffen Glacier experienced a remarkable retreat of 1.6 km as well. During the 2001-2011 period, Steffen Glacier more than doubled its rate of retreat (compared to the 1979-2001 period) and experienced the disintegration of its main front as well as a lateral tongue that retreated 3.1 km. The

Integrating Observations and Models to Better Understand a Changing Arctic Sea Ice Cover

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stroeve, J. C.

2017-12-01

TThe loss of the Arctic sea ice cover has captured the world's attention. While much attention has been paid to the summer ice loss, changes are not limited to summer. The last few winters have seen record low sea ice extents, with 2017 marking the 3rdyear in a row with a new record low for the winter maximum extent. More surprising is the number of consecutive months between January 2016 through April 2017 with ice extent anomalies more than 2 standard deviations below the 1981-2010 mean. Additionally, October 2016 through April 2017 saw 7 consecutive months with record low extents, something that had not happened before in the last 4 decades of satellite observations. As larger parts of the Arctic Ocean become ice-free in summer, regional seas gradually transition from a perennial to a seasonal ice cover. The Barents Sea is already only seasonally ice covered, whereas the Kara Sea has recently lost most of its summer ice and is thereby starting to become a seasonally ice covered region. These changes serve as harbinger for what's to come for other Arctic seas. Given the rapid pace of change, there is an urgent need to improve our understanding of the drivers behind Arctic sea ice loss, the implications of this ice loss and to predict future changes to better inform policy makers. Climate models play a fundamental role in helping us synthesize the complex elements of the Arctic sea ice system yet generally fail to simulate key features of the sea ice system and the pace of sea ice loss. Nevertheless, modeling advances continue to provide better means of diagnosing sea ice change, and new insights are likely to be gained with model output from the 6th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The CMIP6 Sea-Ice Model Intercomparison Project (SIMIP) aim is to better understand biases and errors in sea ice simulations so that we can improve our understanding of the likely future evolution of the sea ice cover and its impacts on global climate. To

Arctic Sea Ice Decline: Observations, Projections, Mechanisms, and Implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DeWeaver, Eric T.; Bitz, Cecilia M.; Tremblay, L.-Bruno

This volume addresses the rapid decline of Arctic sea ice, placing recent sea ice decline in the context of past observations, climate model simulations and projections, and simple models of the climate sensitivity of sea ice. Highlights of the work presented here include • An appraisal of the role played by wind forcing in driving the decline; • A reconstruction of Arctic sea ice conditions prior to human observations, based on proxy data from sediments; • A modeling approach for assessing the impact of sea ice decline on polar bears, used as input to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service's decision to list the polar bear as a threatened species under the Endangered Species Act; • Contrasting studies on the existence of a "tipping point," beyond which Arctic sea ice decline will become (or has already become) irreversible, including an examination of the role of the small ice cap instability in global warming simulations; • A significant summertime atmospheric response to sea ice reduction in an atmospheric general circulation model, suggesting a positive feedback and the potential for short-term climate prediction. The book will be of interest to researchers attempting to understand the recent behavior of Arctic sea ice, model projections of future sea ice loss, and the consequences of sea ice loss for the natural and human systems of the Arctic.

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Thin Ice Area Extraction in the Seasonal Sea Ice Zones of the Northern Hemisphere Using Modis Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayashi, K.; Naoki, K.; Cho, K.

2018-04-01

Sea ice has an important role of reflecting the solar radiation back into space. However, once the sea ice area melts, the area starts to absorb the solar radiation which accelerates the global warming. This means that the trend of global warming is likely to be enhanced in sea ice areas. In this study, the authors have developed a method to extract thin ice area using reflectance data of MODIS onboard Terra and Aqua satellites of NASA. The reflectance of thin sea ice in the visible region is rather low. Moreover, since the surface of thin sea ice is likely to be wet, the reflectance of thin sea ice in the near infrared region is much lower than that of visible region. Considering these characteristics, the authors have developed a method to extract thin sea ice areas by using the reflectance data of MODIS (NASA MYD09 product, 2017) derived from MODIS L1B. By using the scatter plots of the reflectance of Band 1 (620 nm-670 nm) and Band 2 (841 nm-876 nm)) of MODIS, equations for extracting thin ice area were derived. By using those equations, most of the thin ice areas which could be recognized from MODIS images were well extracted in the seasonal sea ice zones in the Northern Hemisphere, namely the Sea of Okhotsk, the Bering Sea and the Gulf of Saint Lawrence. For some limited areas, Landsat-8 OLI images were also used for validation.

Ice-Free Arctic Ocean?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Science Teacher, 2005

2005-01-01

The current warming trends in the Arctic may shove the Arctic system into a seasonally ice-free state not seen for more than one million years, according to a new report. The melting is accelerating, and researchers were unable to identify any natural processes that might slow the deicing of the Arctic. "What really makes the Arctic different…

Export of Ice-Cavity Water from Pine Island Ice Shelf, West Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thurnherr, Andreas; Jacobs, Stanley; Dutrieux, Pierre

2013-04-01

Stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is sensitive to changes in melting at the bottom of floating ice shelves that form the seaward extensions of Antarctic glaciers flowing into the ocean. Not least because observations in the cavities beneath ice shelves are difficult, heat fluxes and melt rates have been inferred from oceanographic measurements obtained near the ice edge (calving fronts). Here, we report on a set of hydrographic and velocity data collected in early 2009 near the calving front of the Amundsen Sea's fast-moving and (until recently) accelerating Pine Island Glacier and its associated ice shelf. CTD profiles collected along the southern half of the meridionally-trending ice front show clear evidence for export of ice-cavity water. That water was carried in the upper ocean along the ice front by a southward current that is possibly related to a striking clockwise gyre that dominated the (summertime) upper-ocean circulation in Pine Island Bay. Signatures of ice-cavity water appear unrelated to current direction along most of the ice front, suggesting that cross-frontal exchange is dominated by temporal variability. However, repeated hydrographic and velocity measurements in a small "ice cove" at the southern end of the calving front show a persistent strong (mean velocity peaking near 0.5 ms-1) outflow of ice-cavity water in the upper 500 m. While surface features (boils) suggested upwelling from deep below the ice shelf, vertical velocity measurements reveal 1) that the mean upwelling within the confines of the cove was too weak to feed the observed outflow, and 2) that large high-frequency internal waves dominated the vertical motion of water inside the cove. These observations indicate that water exchange between the Pine Island Ice Shelf cavity and the Amundsen sea is strongly asymmetric with weak broad inflow at depth and concentrated surface-intensified outflow of melt-laden deep water at the southern edge of the calving front. The lack of

Geodetic measurements reveal similarities between post-Last Glacial Maximum and present-day mass loss from the Greenland ice sheet.

PubMed

Khan, Shfaqat A; Sasgen, Ingo; Bevis, Michael; van Dam, Tonie; Bamber, Jonathan L; Wahr, John; Willis, Michael; Kjær, Kurt H; Wouters, Bert; Helm, Veit; Csatho, Beata; Fleming, Kevin; Bjørk, Anders A; Aschwanden, Andy; Knudsen, Per; Munneke, Peter Kuipers

2016-09-01

Accurate quantification of the millennial-scale mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) and its contribution to global sea-level rise remain challenging because of sparse in situ observations in key regions. Glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) is the ongoing response of the solid Earth to ice and ocean load changes occurring since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; ~21 thousand years ago) and may be used to constrain the GrIS deglaciation history. We use data from the Greenland Global Positioning System network to directly measure GIA and estimate basin-wide mass changes since the LGM. Unpredicted, large GIA uplift rates of +12 mm/year are found in southeast Greenland. These rates are due to low upper mantle viscosity in the region, from when Greenland passed over the Iceland hot spot about 40 million years ago. This region of concentrated soft rheology has a profound influence on reconstructing the deglaciation history of Greenland. We reevaluate the evolution of the GrIS since LGM and obtain a loss of 1.5-m sea-level equivalent from the northwest and southeast. These same sectors are dominating modern mass loss. We suggest that the present destabilization of these marine-based sectors may increase sea level for centuries to come. Our new deglaciation history and GIA uplift estimates suggest that studies that use the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment satellite mission to infer present-day changes in the GrIS may have erroneously corrected for GIA and underestimated the mass loss by about 20 gigatons/year.

Geodetic measurements reveal similarities between post–Last Glacial Maximum and present-day mass loss from the Greenland ice sheet

PubMed Central

Khan, Shfaqat A.; Sasgen, Ingo; Bevis, Michael; van Dam, Tonie; Bamber, Jonathan L.; Wahr, John; Willis, Michael; Kjær, Kurt H.; Wouters, Bert; Helm, Veit; Csatho, Beata; Fleming, Kevin; Bjørk, Anders A.; Aschwanden, Andy; Knudsen, Per; Munneke, Peter Kuipers

2016-01-01

Accurate quantification of the millennial-scale mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) and its contribution to global sea-level rise remain challenging because of sparse in situ observations in key regions. Glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) is the ongoing response of the solid Earth to ice and ocean load changes occurring since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; ~21 thousand years ago) and may be used to constrain the GrIS deglaciation history. We use data from the Greenland Global Positioning System network to directly measure GIA and estimate basin-wide mass changes since the LGM. Unpredicted, large GIA uplift rates of +12 mm/year are found in southeast Greenland. These rates are due to low upper mantle viscosity in the region, from when Greenland passed over the Iceland hot spot about 40 million years ago. This region of concentrated soft rheology has a profound influence on reconstructing the deglaciation history of Greenland. We reevaluate the evolution of the GrIS since LGM and obtain a loss of 1.5-m sea-level equivalent from the northwest and southeast. These same sectors are dominating modern mass loss. We suggest that the present destabilization of these marine-based sectors may increase sea level for centuries to come. Our new deglaciation history and GIA uplift estimates suggest that studies that use the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment satellite mission to infer present-day changes in the GrIS may have erroneously corrected for GIA and underestimated the mass loss by about 20 gigatons/year. PMID:27679819

An experimental demonstration that early-life competitive disadvantage accelerates telomere loss

PubMed Central

Nettle, Daniel; Monaghan, Pat; Gillespie, Robert; Brilot, Ben; Bedford, Thomas; Bateson, Melissa

2015-01-01

Adverse experiences in early life can exert powerful delayed effects on adult survival and health. Telomere attrition is a potentially important mechanism in such effects. One source of early-life adversity is the stress caused by competitive disadvantage. Although previous avian experiments suggest that competitive disadvantage may accelerate telomere attrition, they do not clearly isolate the effects of competitive disadvantage from other sources of variation. Here, we present data from an experiment in European starlings (Sturnus vulgaris) that used cross-fostering to expose siblings to divergent early experience. Birds were assigned either to competitive advantage (being larger than their brood competitors) or competitive disadvantage (being smaller than their brood competitors) between days 3 and 12 post-hatching. Disadvantage did not affect weight gain, but it increased telomere attrition, leading to shorter telomere length in disadvantaged birds by day 12. There were no effects of disadvantage on oxidative damage as measured by plasma lipid peroxidation. We thus found strong evidence that early-life competitive disadvantage can accelerate telomere loss. This could lead to faster age-related deterioration and poorer health in later life. PMID:25411450

The Annual Glaciohydrology Cycle in the Ablation Zone of the Greenland Ice Sheet: Part 2. Observed and Modeled Ice Flow

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Colgan, William Terence; Rajaram, Harihar; Anderson, Robert S.; Steffen, Konrad; Zwally, H. Jay; Phillips, Thomas; Abdalati, Waleed

2012-01-01

Ice velocities observed in 2005/06 at three GPS stations along the Sermeq Avannarleq flowline, West Greenland, are used to characterize an observed annual velocity cycle. We attempt to reproduce this annual ice velocity cycle using a 1-D ice-flow model with longitudinal stresses coupled to a 1-D hydrology model that governs an empirical basal sliding rule. Seasonal basal sliding velocity is parameterized as a perturbation of prescribed winter sliding velocity that is proportional to the rate of change of glacier water storage. The coupled model reproduces the broad features of the annual basal sliding cycle observed along this flowline, namely a summer speed-up event followed by a fall slowdown event. We also evaluate the hypothesis that the observed annual velocity cycle is due to the annual calving cycle at the terminus. We demonstrate that the ice acceleration due to a catastrophic calving event takes an order of magnitude longer to reach CU/ETH ('Swiss') Camp (46km upstream of the terminus) than is observed. The seasonal acceleration observed at Swiss Camp is therefore unlikely to be the result of velocity perturbations propagated upstream via longitudinal coupling. Instead we interpret this velocity cycle to reflect the local history of glacier water balance.

Ice Core Records of Recent Northwest Greenland Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Osterberg, E. C.; Wong, G. J.; Ferris, D.; Lutz, E.; Howley, J. A.; Kelly, M. A.; Axford, Y.; Hawley, R. L.

2014-12-01

Meteorological station data from NW Greenland indicate a 3oC temperature rise since 1990, with most of the warming occurring in fall and winter. According to remote sensing data, the NW Greenland ice sheet (GIS) and coastal ice caps are responding with ice mass loss and margin retreat, but the cryosphere's response to previous climate variability is poorly constrained in this region. We are developing multi-proxy records (lake sediment cores, ice cores, glacial geologic data, glaciological models) of Holocene climate change and cryospheric response in NW Greenland to improve projections of future ice loss and sea level rise in a warming climate. As part of our efforts to develop a millennial-length ice core paleoclimate record from the Thule region, we collected and analyzed snow pit samples and short firn cores (up to 21 m) from the coastal region of the GIS (2Barrel site; 76.9317o N, 63.1467o W, 1685 m el.) and the summit of North Ice Cap (76.938o N, 67.671o W, 1273 m el.) in 2011, 2012 and 2014. The 2Barrel ice core record has statistically significant relationships with regional spring and fall Baffin Bay sea ice extent, summertime temperature, and annual precipitation. Here we evaluate relationships between the 2014 North Ice Cap firn core glaciochemical record and climate variability from regional instrumental stations and reanalysis datasets. We compare the coastal North Ice Cap record to more inland records from 2Barrel, Camp Century and NEEM to evaluate spatial and elevational gradients in recent NW Greenland climate change.

History of the Greenland Ice Sheet: paleoclimatic insights

USGS Publications Warehouse

Alley, Richard B.; Andrews, John T.; Brigham-Grette, J.; Clarke, G.K.C.; Cuffey, Kurt M.; Fitzpatrick, J.J.; Funder, S.; Marshall, S.J.; Miller, G.H.; Mitrovica, J.X.; Muhs, D.R.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Polyak, L.; White, J.W.C.

2010-01-01

Paleoclimatic records show that the GreenlandIce Sheet consistently has lost mass in response to warming, and grown in response to cooling. Such changes have occurred even at times of slow or zero sea-level change, so changing sea level cannot have been the cause of at least some of the ice-sheet changes. In contrast, there are no documented major ice-sheet changes that occurred independent of temperature changes. Moreover, snowfall has increased when the climate warmed, but the ice sheet lost mass nonetheless; increased accumulation in the ice sheet's center has not been sufficient to counteract increased melting and flow near the edges. Most documented forcings and ice-sheet responses spanned periods of several thousand years, but limited data also show rapid response to rapid forcings. In particular, regions near the ice margin have responded within decades. However, major changes of central regions of the ice sheet are thought to require centuries to millennia. The paleoclimatic record does not yet strongly constrain how rapidly a major shrinkage or nearly complete loss of the ice sheet could occur. The evidence suggests nearly total ice-sheet loss may result from warming of more than a few degrees above mean 20th century values, but this threshold is poorly defined (perhaps as little as 2 °C or more than 7 °C). Paleoclimatic records are sufficiently sketchy that the ice sheet may have grown temporarily in response to warming, or changes may have been induced by factors other than temperature, without having been recorded.

The evolving instability of the remnant Larsen B Ice Shelf and its tributary glaciers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khazendar, Ala; Borstad, Christopher P.; Scheuchl, Bernd; Rignot, Eric; Seroussi, Helene

2015-06-01

Following the 2002 disintegration of the northern and central parts of the Larsen B Ice Shelf, the tributary glaciers of the southern surviving part initially appeared relatively unchanged and hence assumed to be buttressed sufficiently by the remnant ice shelf. Here, we modify this perception with observations from IceBridge altimetry and InSAR-inferred ice flow speeds. Our analyses show that the surfaces of Leppard and Flask glaciers directly upstream from their grounding lines lowered by 15 to 20 m in the period 2002-2011. The thinning appears to be dynamic as the flow of both glaciers and the remnant ice shelf accelerated in the same period. Flask Glacier started accelerating even before the 2002 disintegration, increasing its flow speed by ∼55% between 1997 and 2012. Starbuck Glacier meanwhile did not change much. We hypothesize that the different evolutions of the three glaciers are related to their dissimilar bed topographies and degrees of grounding. We apply numerical modeling and data assimilation that show these changes to be accompanied by a reduction in the buttressing afforded by the remnant ice shelf, a weakening of the shear zones between its flow units and an increase in its fracture. The fast flowing northwestern part of the remnant ice shelf exhibits increasing fragmentation, while the stagnant southeastern part seems to be prone to the formation of large rifts, some of which we show have delimited successive calving events. A large rift only 12 km downstream from the grounding line is currently traversing the stagnant part of the ice shelf, defining the likely front of the next large calving event. We propose that the flow acceleration, ice front retreat and enhanced fracture of the remnant Larsen B Ice Shelf presage its approaching demise.

State of Arctic Sea Ice North of Svalbard during N-ICE2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rösel, Anja; King, Jennifer; Gerland, Sebastian

2016-04-01

The N-ICE2015 cruise, led by the Norwegian Polar Institute, was a drift experiment with the research vessel R/V Lance from January to June 2015, where the ship started the drift North of Svalbard at 83°14.45' N, 21°31.41' E. The drift was repeated as soon as the vessel drifted free. Altogether, 4 ice stations where installed and the complex ocean-sea ice-atmosphere system was studied with an interdisciplinary Approach. During the N-ICE2015 cruise, extensive ice thickness and snow depth measurements were performed during both, winter and summer conditions. Total ice and snow thickness was measured with ground-based and airborne electromagnetic instruments; snow depth was measured with a GPS snow depth probe. Additionally, ice mass balance and snow buoys were deployed. Snow and ice thickness measurements were performed on repeated transects to quantify the ice growth or loss as well as the snow accumulation and melt rate. Additionally, we collected independent values on surveys to determine the general ice thickness distribution. Average snow depths of 32 cm on first year ice, and 52 cm on multi-year ice were measured in January, the mean snow depth on all ice types even increased until end of March to 49 cm. The average total ice and snow thickness in winter conditions was 1.92 m. During winter we found a small growth rate on multi-year ice of about 15 cm in 2 months, due to above-average snow depths and some extraordinary storm events that came along with mild temperatures. In contrast thereto, we also were able to study new ice formation and thin ice on newly formed leads. In summer conditions an enormous melt rate, mainly driven by a warm Atlantic water inflow in the marginal ice zone, was observed during two ice stations with melt rates of up to 20 cm per 24 hours. To reinforce the local measurements around the ship and to confirm their significance on a larger scale, we compare them to airborne thickness measurements and classified SAR-satellite scenes. The

Airborne gravity measurement over sea-ice: The western Weddel Sea

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brozena, J.; Peters, M.; LaBrecque, J.

1990-10-01

An airborne gravity study of the western Weddel Sea, east of the Antarctic Peninsula, has shown that floating pack-ice provides a useful radar altimetric reference surface for altitude and vertical acceleration corrections surface for alititude and vertical acceleration corrections to airborne gravimetry. Airborne gravimetry provides an important alternative to satellite altimetry for the sea-ice covered regions of the world since satellite alimeters are not designed or intended to provide accurate geoidal heights in areas where significant sea-ice is present within the radar footprint. Errors in radar corrected airborne gravimetry are primarily sensitive to the variations in the second derivative ofmore » the sea-ice reference surface in the frequency pass-band of interest. With the exception of imbedded icebergs the second derivative of the pack-ice surface closely approximates that of the mean sea-level surface at wavelengths > 10-20 km. With the airborne method the percentage of ice coverage, the mixture of first and multi-year ice and the existence of leads and pressure ridges prove to be unimportant in determining gravity anomalies at scales of geophysical and geodetic interest, provided that the ice is floating and not grounded. In the Weddell study an analysis of 85 crosstrack miss-ties distributed over 25 data tracks yields an rms error of 2.2 mGals. Significant structural anomalies including the continental shelf and offsets and lineations interpreted as fracture zones recording the early spreading directions within the Weddell Sea are observed in the gravity map.« less

Envelope Protection for In-Flight Ice Contamination

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gingras, David R.; Barnhart, Billy P.; Ranaudo, Richard J.; Ratvasky, Thomas P.; Morelli, Eugene A.

2010-01-01

Fatal loss-of-control (LOC) accidents have been directly related to in-flight airframe icing. The prototype system presented in this paper directly addresses the need for real-time onboard envelope protection in icing conditions. The combinations of a-priori information and realtime aerodynamic estimations are shown to provide sufficient input for determining safe limits of the flight envelope during in-flight icing encounters. The Icing Contamination Envelope Protection (ICEPro) system has been designed and implemented to identify degradations in airplane performance and flying qualities resulting from ice contamination and provide safe flight-envelope cues to the pilot. Components of ICEPro are described and results from preliminary tests are presented.

The Antarctica component of postglacial rebound model ICE-6G_C (VM5a) based on GPS positioning, exposure age dating of ice thicknesses, and relative sea level histories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Argus, Donald F.; Peltier, W. R.; Drummond, R.; Moore, Angelyn W.

2014-07-01

A new model of the deglaciation history of Antarctica over the past 25 kyr has been developed, which we refer to herein as ICE-6G_C (VM5a). This revision of its predecessor ICE-5G (VM2) has been constrained to fit all available geological and geodetic observations, consisting of: (1) the present day uplift rates at 42 sites estimated from GPS measurements, (2) ice thickness change at 62 locations estimated from exposure-age dating, (3) Holocene relative sea level histories from 12 locations estimated on the basis of radiocarbon dating and (4) age of the onset of marine sedimentation at nine locations along the Antarctic shelf also estimated on the basis of 14C dating. Our new model fits the totality of these data well. An additional nine GPS-determined site velocities are also estimated for locations known to be influenced by modern ice loss from the Pine Island Bay and Northern Antarctic Peninsula regions. At the 42 locations not influenced by modern ice loss, the quality of the fit of postglacial rebound model ICE-6G_C (VM5A) is characterized by a weighted root mean square residual of 0.9 mm yr-1. The Southern Antarctic Peninsula is inferred to be rising at 2 mm yr-1, requiring there to be less Holocene ice loss there than in the prior model ICE-5G (VM2). The East Antarctica coast is rising at approximately 1 mm yr-1, requiring ice loss from this region to have been small since Last Glacial Maximum. The Ellsworth Mountains, at the base of the Antarctic Peninsula, are inferred to be rising at 5-8 mm yr-1, indicating large ice loss from this area during deglaciation that is poorly sampled by geological data. Horizontal deformation of the Antarctic Plate is minor with two exceptions. First, O'Higgins, at the tip of the Antarctic Peninsula, is moving southeast at a significant 2 mm yr-1 relative to the Antarctic Plate. Secondly, the margins of the Ronne and Ross Ice Shelves are moving horizontally away from the shelf centres at an approximate rate of 0.8 mm yr-1, in

Neutron Production from In-situ Heavy Ice Coated Targets at Vulcan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morrison, John; Krygier, A. G.; Kar, S.; Ahmed, H.; Alejo, A.; Clarke, R.; Fuchs, J.; Green, A.; Jung, D.; Kleinschmidt, A.; Najmudin, Z.; Nakamura, H.; Norreys, P.; Notley, M.; Oliver, M.; Roth, M.; Vassura, L.; Zepf, M.; Borghesi, M.; Freeman, R. R.

2015-05-01

Laser based neutron production experiments have been performed utilizing ultra-high intensity laser accelerated ions impinging upon a secondary target. The neutron yield from such experiments may be improved if the accelerated ions were primarily deuterons taking advantage of the d-d cross section. Recent experiments have demonstrated that selective deuteron acceleration from in-situ heavy ice coating of targets can produce ion spectra where deuterons comprise > 99 % of the measured ions. Results will be presented from integrated neutron production experiments from heavy ice targets coated in-situ recently performed on the Vulcan laser at Rutherford Appleton Laboratory. We are grateful for the Staff at RAL and acknowledge funding from the US DoE. AFOSR, European Social Fund, and the Czech Republic.

Contribution of Increasing Glacial Freshwater Fluxes to Observed Trends in Antarctic Sea Ice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Sommer, J.; Merino, N.; Durand, G.; Jourdain, N.; Goosse, H.; Mathiot, P.; Gurvan, M.

2016-02-01

Southern Ocean sea-ice extent has experienced an overall positive trend over recent decades. While the amplitude of this trend is open to debate, the geographical pattern of regional changes has been clearly identified by observations. Mechanisms driving changes in the Antarctic Sea Ice Extent (SIE) are not fully understood and climate models fail to simulate these trends. Changes in different atmospheric features such as SAM or ENSO seem to explain the observed trend of Antartic sea ice, but only partly, since they can not account for the actual amplitude of the observed signal. The increasing injection of freshwater due to the accelerating ice discharge from Antarctica Ice Sheet (AIS) during the last two decades has been proposed as another candidate to contribute to SIE trend. However, the quantity and the distribution of the extra freshwater injection were not properly constrained. Recent glaciological estimations may improve the way the glacial freshwater is injected in the model. Here, we study the role of the glacial freshwater into the observed SIE trend, using the state-of-the-art Antarctic mass loss estimations. Ocean/sea-ice model simulations have been carried out with two different Antarctic freshwater scenarios corresponding to 20-years of Antarctic Ice Sheet evolution. The combination of an improved iceberg model with the most recent glaciological estimations has been applied to account for the most realistic possible Antarctic freshwater evolution scenarios. Results suggest that Antarctica has contributed to almost a 30% of the observed trend in regions of the South Pacific and South East Indian sectors, but has little impact in the South Atlantic sector. We conclude that the observed SIE trend over the last decades is due to a combination of both an atmospheric forcing and the extra freshwater injection. Our results advocates that the evolution of glacial freshwater needs to be correctly represented in climate models.