Glacier-surge mechanisms promoted by a hydro-thermodynamic feedback to summer melt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dunse, T.; Schellenberger, T.; Hagen, J. O.; Kääb, A.; Schuler, T. V.; Reijmer, C. H.

2015-02-01

Mass loss from glaciers and ice sheets currently accounts for two-thirds of the observed global sea-level rise and has accelerated since the 1990s, coincident with strong atmospheric warming in the polar regions. Here we present continuous GPS measurements and satellite synthetic-aperture-radar-based velocity maps from Basin-3, the largest drainage basin of the Austfonna ice cap, Svalbard. Our observations demonstrate strong links between surface-melt and multiannual ice-flow acceleration. We identify a hydro-thermodynamic feedback that successively mobilizes stagnant ice regions, initially frozen to their bed, thereby facilitating fast basal motion over an expanding area. By autumn 2012, successive destabilization of the marine terminus escalated in a surge of Basin-3. The resulting iceberg discharge of 4.2±1.6 Gt a-1 over the period April 2012 to May 2013 triples the calving loss from the entire ice cap. With the seawater displacement by the terminus advance accounted for, the related sea-level rise contribution amounts to 7.2±2.6 Gt a-1. This rate matches the annual ice-mass loss from the entire Svalbard archipelago over the period 2003-2008, highlighting the importance of dynamic mass loss for glacier mass balance and sea-level rise. The active role of surface melt, i.e. external forcing, contrasts with previous views of glacier surges as purely internal dynamic instabilities. Given sustained climatic warming and rising significance of surface melt, we propose a potential impact of the hydro-thermodynamic feedback on the future stability of ice-sheet regions, namely at the presence of a cold-based marginal ice plug that restricts fast drainage of inland ice. The possibility of large-scale dynamic instabilities such as the partial disintegration of ice sheets is acknowledged but not quantified in global projections of sea-level rise.

30-Year Satellite Record Reveals Accelerated Arctic Sea Ice Loss, Antarctic Sea Ice Trend Reversal

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cavalieri, Donald J.; Parkinson, C. L.; Vinnikov, K. Y.

2003-01-01

Arctic sea ice extent decreased by 0.30 plus or minus 0.03 x 10(exp 6) square kilometers per decade from 1972 through 2002, but decreased by 0.36 plus or minus 0.05 x 10(exp 6) square kilometers per decade from 1979 through 2002, indicating an acceleration of 20% in the rate of decrease. In contrast to the Arctic, the Antarctic sea ice extent decreased dramatically over the period 1973-1977, then gradually increased, with an overall 30-year trend of -0.15 plus or minus 0.08 x 10(exp 6) square kilometers per 10yr. The trend reversal is attributed to a large positive anomaly in Antarctic sea ice extent observed in the early 1970's.

Radial growth of hardwoods following the 1998 ice storm in New Hampshire and Maine

Treesearch

Kevin T. Smith; Walter C. Shortle

2003-01-01

Ice storms and resulting injury to tree crowns occur frequently in North America. Reaction of land managers to injury caused by the regional ice storm of January 1998 had the potential to accelerate the harvesting of northern hardwoods due to concern about the future loss of wood production by injured trees. To assess the effect of this storm on radial stem growth,...

Cloud Response to Arctic Sea Ice Loss and Implications for Feedbacks in the CESM1 Climate Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morrison, A.; Kay, J. E.; Chepfer, H.; Guzman, R.; Bonazzola, M.

2017-12-01

Clouds have the potential to accelerate or slow the rate of Arctic sea ice loss through their radiative influence on the surface. Cloud feedbacks can therefore play into Arctic warming as clouds respond to changes in sea ice cover. As the Arctic moves toward an ice-free state, understanding how cloud - sea ice relationships change in response to sea ice loss is critical for predicting the future climate trajectory. From satellite observations we know the effect of present-day sea ice cover on clouds, but how will clouds respond to sea ice loss as the Arctic transitions to a seasonally open water state? In this study we use a lidar simulator to first evaluate cloud - sea ice relationships in the Community Earth System Model (CESM1) against present-day observations (2006-2015). In the current climate, the cloud response to sea ice is well-represented in CESM1: we see no summer cloud response to changes in sea ice cover, but more fall clouds over open water than over sea ice. Since CESM1 is credible for the current Arctic climate, we next assess if our process-based understanding of Arctic cloud feedbacks related to sea ice loss is relevant for understanding future Arctic clouds. In the future Arctic, summer cloud structure continues to be insensitive to surface conditions. As the Arctic warms in the fall, however, the boundary layer deepens and cloud fraction increases over open ocean during each consecutive decade from 2020 - 2100. This study will also explore seasonal changes in cloud properties such as opacity and liquid water path. Results thus far suggest that a positive fall cloud - sea ice feedback exists in the present-day and future Arctic climate.

Observing anomalies in the deglaciation of Greenland by GRACE and GNET GPS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knudsen, Per; Khan, Shfaqat Abbas

2017-04-01

Between the start of 2003 and the middle 2013, the total mass of ice in Greenland declined at an accelerating rate, and this rate increases nearly constantly of about 24 Gt per year. Then, a dramatic reversal occurred, and almost no additional ice mass was lost in the subsequent two years. In 2015 the melting had resumed reducing the ice mass in Greenland. We use observations from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and a network of Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers to study both the decade of accelerating ice loss, and the subsequent 'pause', focusing on the space-time structure of changes in ice mass. We use a spatial basis set of spherical Legendre polynomials, and assume that the temporal variation in mass can be expressed using a 4-term Fourier series (i.e. an annual cycle) superimposed on a polynomial in time (i.e. a trend). We show that the spatial pattern of the sustained, decade-long acceleration and of the mass anomaly associated with the melt anomalies are very similar, and so manifest the footprint of the ice sheet's sensitivity to climate change at the wavelengths resolved by GRACE.

Observing the 2013 and other anomalies in the deglaciation of Greenland by GRACE and GNET GPS.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knudsen, P.; Madsen, F. B.; Bevis, M. G.; Khan, S. A.

2016-12-01

Between the start of 2003 and the middle 2013, the total mass of ice in Greenland declined at an accelerating rate, and this rate increases nearly constantly of about 24 Gt per year. Then, a dramatic reversal occurred, and almost no additional ice mass was lost in the subsequent two years. In 2015 the melting had resumed reducing the ice mass in Greenland. We use observations from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and a network of Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers to study both the decade of accelerating ice loss, and the subsequent `pause', focusing on the space-time structure of changes in ice mass. We use a spatial basis set of spherical Legendre polynomials, and assume that the temporal variation in mass can be expressed using a 4-term Fourier series (i.e. an annual cycle) superimposed on a polynomial in time (i.e. a trend). We show that the spatial pattern of the sustained, decade-long acceleration and of the mass anomaly associated with the melt anomalies are very similar, and so manifest the footprint of the ice sheet's sensitivity to climate change at the wavelengths resolved by GRACE.

How much can Greenland melt? An upper bound on mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet through surface melting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, X.; Bassis, J. N.

2015-12-01

With observations showing accelerated mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet due to surface melt, the Greenland Ice Sheet is becoming one of the most significant contributors to sea level rise. The contribution of the Greenland Ice Sheet o sea level rise is likely to accelerate in the coming decade and centuries as atmospheric temperatures continue to rise, potentially triggering ever larger surface melt rates. However, at present considerable uncertainty remains in projecting the contribution to sea level of the Greenland Ice Sheet both due to uncertainty in atmospheric forcing and the ice sheet response to climate forcing. Here we seek an upper bound on the contribution of surface melt from the Greenland to sea level rise in the coming century using a surface energy balance model coupled to an englacial model. We use IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP8.5, RCP6, RCP4.5, RCP2.6) climate scenarios from an ensemble of global climate models in our simulations to project the maximum rate of ice volume loss and related sea-level rise associated with surface melting. To estimate the upper bound, we assume the Greenland Ice Sheet is perpetually covered in thick clouds, which maximize longwave radiation to the ice sheet. We further assume that deposition of black carbon darkens the ice substantially turning it nearly black, substantially reducing its albedo. Although assuming that all melt water not stored in the snow/firn is instantaneously transported off the ice sheet increases mass loss in the short term, refreezing of retained water warms the ice and may lead to more melt in the long term. Hence we examine both assumptions and use the scenario that leads to the most surface melt by 2100. Preliminary models results suggest that under the most aggressive climate forcing, surface melt from the Greenland Ice Sheet contributes ~1 m to sea level by the year 2100. This is a significant contribution and ignores dynamic effects. We also examined a lower bound, assuming negligible longwave radiation and albedo near the maximum observed for freshly fallen snow. Even under this scenarios preliminary estimates suggest tens of centimeters of sea level rise by 2100.

Abrupt shift in the observed runoff from the southwestern Greenland ice sheet

PubMed Central

Ahlstrøm, Andreas P.; Petersen, Dorthe; Langen, Peter L.; Citterio, Michele; Box, Jason E.

2017-01-01

The recent decades of accelerating mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet have arisen from an increase in both surface meltwater runoff and ice flow discharge from tidewater glaciers. Despite the role of the Greenland ice sheet as the dominant individual cryospheric contributor to sea level rise in recent decades, no observational record of its mass loss spans the 30-year period needed to assess its climatological state. We present for the first time a 40-year (1975–2014) time series of observed meltwater discharge from a >6500-km2 catchment of the southwestern Greenland ice sheet. We find that an abrupt 80% increase in runoff occurring between the 1976–2002 and 2003–2014 periods is due to a shift in atmospheric circulation, with meridional exchange events occurring more frequently over Greenland, establishing the first observation-based connection between ice sheet runoff and climate change. PMID:29242827

Arctic polynya and glacier interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Edwards, Laura

2013-04-01

Major uncertainties surround future estimates of sea level rise attributable to mass loss from the polar ice sheets and ice caps. Understanding changes across the Arctic is vital as major potential contributors to sea level, the Greenland Ice Sheet and the ice caps and glaciers of the Canadian Arctic archipelago, have experienced dramatic changes in recent times. Most ice mass loss is currently focused at a relatively small number of glacier catchments where ice acceleration, thinning and calving occurs at ocean margins. Research suggests that these tidewater glaciers accelerate and iceberg calving rates increase when warming ocean currents increase melt on the underside of floating glacier ice and when adjacent sea ice is removed causing a reduction in 'buttressing' back stress. Thus localised changes in ocean temperatures and in sea ice (extent and thickness) adjacent to major glacial catchments can impact hugely on the dynamics of, and hence mass lost from, terrestrial ice sheets and ice caps. Polynyas are areas of open water within sea ice which remain unfrozen for much of the year. They vary significantly in size (~3 km2 to > ~50,000 km2 in the Arctic), recurrence rates and duration. Despite their relatively small size, polynyas play a vital role in the heat balance of the polar oceans and strongly impact regional oceanography. Where polynyas develop adjacent to tidewater glaciers their influence on ocean circulation and water temperatures may play a major part in controlling subsurface ice melt rates by impacting on the water masses reaching the calving front. Areas of open water also play a significant role in controlling the potential of the atmosphere to carry moisture, as well as allowing heat exchange between the atmosphere and ocean, and so can influence accumulation on (and hence thickness of) glaciers and ice caps. Polynya presence and size also has implications for sea ice extent and therefore potentially the buttressing effect on neighbouring tidewater glaciers. The work presented discusses preliminary satellite observations of concurrent changes in the North Water and Nares Strait polynyas and neighbouring tidewater glaciers in Greenland and the Canadian Arctic where notable thinning and acceleration of glaciers have been observed. Also included is an outline of how these observations will fit into a much wider project on the topic involving ocean, atmosphere and sea ice modelling and short-term and longer-term in-situ measurements.

Simulating ice thickness and velocity evolution of Upernavik Isstrøm 1849-2012 by forcing prescribed terminus positions in ISSM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haubner, Konstanze; Box, Jason E.; Schlegel, Nicole J.; Larour, Eric Y.; Morlighem, Mathieu; Solgaard, Anne M.; Kjeldsen, Kristian K.; Larsen, Signe H.; Rignot, Eric; Dupont, Todd K.; Kjær, Kurt H.

2018-04-01

Tidewater glacier velocity and mass balance are known to be highly responsive to terminus position change. Yet it remains challenging for ice flow models to reproduce observed ice margin changes. Here, using the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM; Larour et al. 2012), we simulate the ice velocity and thickness changes of Upernavik Isstrøm (north-western Greenland) by prescribing a collection of 27 observed terminus positions spanning 164 years (1849-2012). The simulation shows increased ice velocity during the 1930s, the late 1970s and between 1995 and 2012 when terminus retreat was observed along with negative surface mass balance anomalies. Three distinct mass balance states are evident in the reconstruction: (1849-1932) with near zero mass balance, (1932-1992) with ice mass loss dominated by ice dynamical flow, and (1998-2012), when increased retreat and negative surface mass balance anomalies led to mass loss that was twice that of any earlier period. Over the multi-decadal simulation, mass loss was dominated by thinning and acceleration responsible for 70 % of the total mass loss induced by prescribed change in terminus position. The remaining 30 % of the total ice mass loss resulted directly from prescribed terminus retreat and decreasing surface mass balance. Although the method can not explain the cause of glacier retreat, it enables the reconstruction of ice flow and geometry during 1849-2012. Given annual or seasonal observed terminus front positions, this method could be a useful tool for evaluating simulations investigating the effect of calving laws.

Sea ice, rain-on-snow and tundra reindeer nomadism in Arctic Russia

PubMed Central

Kumpula, Timo; Meschtyb, Nina; Laptander, Roza; Macias-Fauria, Marc; Zetterberg, Pentti; Verdonen, Mariana; Kim, Kwang-Yul; Boisvert, Linette N.; Stroeve, Julienne C.; Bartsch, Annett

2016-01-01

Sea ice loss is accelerating in the Barents and Kara Seas (BKS). Assessing potential linkages between sea ice retreat/thinning and the region's ancient and unique social–ecological systems is a pressing task. Tundra nomadism remains a vitally important livelihood for indigenous Nenets and their large reindeer herds. Warming summer air temperatures have been linked to more frequent and sustained summer high-pressure systems over West Siberia, Russia, but not to sea ice retreat. At the same time, autumn/winter rain-on-snow (ROS) events have become more frequent and intense. Here, we review evidence for autumn atmospheric warming and precipitation increases over Arctic coastal lands in proximity to BKS ice loss. Two major ROS events during November 2006 and 2013 led to massive winter reindeer mortality episodes on the Yamal Peninsula. Fieldwork with migratory herders has revealed that the ecological and socio-economic impacts from the catastrophic 2013 event will unfold for years to come. The suggested link between sea ice loss, more frequent and intense ROS events and high reindeer mortality has serious implications for the future of tundra Nenets nomadism. PMID:27852939

Sea ice, rain-on-snow and tundra reindeer nomadism in Arctic Russia.

PubMed

Forbes, Bruce C; Kumpula, Timo; Meschtyb, Nina; Laptander, Roza; Macias-Fauria, Marc; Zetterberg, Pentti; Verdonen, Mariana; Skarin, Anna; Kim, Kwang-Yul; Boisvert, Linette N; Stroeve, Julienne C; Bartsch, Annett

2016-11-01

Sea ice loss is accelerating in the Barents and Kara Seas (BKS). Assessing potential linkages between sea ice retreat/thinning and the region's ancient and unique social-ecological systems is a pressing task. Tundra nomadism remains a vitally important livelihood for indigenous Nenets and their large reindeer herds. Warming summer air temperatures have been linked to more frequent and sustained summer high-pressure systems over West Siberia, Russia, but not to sea ice retreat. At the same time, autumn/winter rain-on-snow (ROS) events have become more frequent and intense. Here, we review evidence for autumn atmospheric warming and precipitation increases over Arctic coastal lands in proximity to BKS ice loss. Two major ROS events during November 2006 and 2013 led to massive winter reindeer mortality episodes on the Yamal Peninsula. Fieldwork with migratory herders has revealed that the ecological and socio-economic impacts from the catastrophic 2013 event will unfold for years to come. The suggested link between sea ice loss, more frequent and intense ROS events and high reindeer mortality has serious implications for the future of tundra Nenets nomadism. © 2016 The Authors.

Laser altimetry reveals complex pattern of Greenland Ice Sheet dynamics

PubMed Central

Csatho, Beata M.; Schenk, Anton F.; van der Veen, Cornelis J.; Babonis, Gregory; Duncan, Kyle; Rezvanbehbahani, Soroush; van den Broeke, Michiel R.; Simonsen, Sebastian B.; Nagarajan, Sudhagar; van Angelen, Jan H.

2014-01-01

We present a new record of ice thickness change, reconstructed at nearly 100,000 sites on the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) from laser altimetry measurements spanning the period 1993–2012, partitioned into changes due to surface mass balance (SMB) and ice dynamics. We estimate a mean annual GrIS mass loss of 243 ± 18 Gt⋅y−1, equivalent to 0.68 mm⋅y−1 sea level rise (SLR) for 2003–2009. Dynamic thinning contributed 48%, with the largest rates occurring in 2004–2006, followed by a gradual decrease balanced by accelerating SMB loss. The spatial pattern of dynamic mass loss changed over this time as dynamic thinning rapidly decreased in southeast Greenland but slowly increased in the southwest, north, and northeast regions. Most outlet glaciers have been thinning during the last two decades, interrupted by episodes of decreasing thinning or even thickening. Dynamics of the major outlet glaciers dominated the mass loss from larger drainage basins, and simultaneous changes over distances up to 500 km are detected, indicating climate control. However, the intricate spatiotemporal pattern of dynamic thickness change suggests that, regardless of the forcing responsible for initial glacier acceleration and thinning, the response of individual glaciers is modulated by local conditions. Recent projections of dynamic contributions from the entire GrIS to SLR have been based on the extrapolation of four major outlet glaciers. Considering the observed complexity, we question how well these four glaciers represent all of Greenland’s outlet glaciers. PMID:25512537

Laser altimetry reveals complex pattern of Greenland Ice Sheet dynamics.

PubMed

Csatho, Beata M; Schenk, Anton F; van der Veen, Cornelis J; Babonis, Gregory; Duncan, Kyle; Rezvanbehbahani, Soroush; van den Broeke, Michiel R; Simonsen, Sebastian B; Nagarajan, Sudhagar; van Angelen, Jan H

2014-12-30

We present a new record of ice thickness change, reconstructed at nearly 100,000 sites on the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) from laser altimetry measurements spanning the period 1993-2012, partitioned into changes due to surface mass balance (SMB) and ice dynamics. We estimate a mean annual GrIS mass loss of 243 ± 18 Gt ⋅ y(-1), equivalent to 0.68 mm ⋅ y(-1) sea level rise (SLR) for 2003-2009. Dynamic thinning contributed 48%, with the largest rates occurring in 2004-2006, followed by a gradual decrease balanced by accelerating SMB loss. The spatial pattern of dynamic mass loss changed over this time as dynamic thinning rapidly decreased in southeast Greenland but slowly increased in the southwest, north, and northeast regions. Most outlet glaciers have been thinning during the last two decades, interrupted by episodes of decreasing thinning or even thickening. Dynamics of the major outlet glaciers dominated the mass loss from larger drainage basins, and simultaneous changes over distances up to 500 km are detected, indicating climate control. However, the intricate spatiotemporal pattern of dynamic thickness change suggests that, regardless of the forcing responsible for initial glacier acceleration and thinning, the response of individual glaciers is modulated by local conditions. Recent projections of dynamic contributions from the entire GrIS to SLR have been based on the extrapolation of four major outlet glaciers. Considering the observed complexity, we question how well these four glaciers represent all of Greenland's outlet glaciers.

Volcano–ice interactions precursory to the 2009 eruption of Redoubt Volcano, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bleick, Heather A.; Coombs, Michelle L.; Cervelli, Peter F.; Bull, Katharine F.; Wessels, Rick

2013-01-01

In late summer of 2008, after nearly 20 years of quiescence, Redoubt Volcano began to show signs of abnormal heat flow in its summit crater. In the months that followed, the excess heat triggered melting and ablation of Redoubt's glaciers, beginning at the summit and propagating to lower elevations as the unrest accelerated. A variety of morphological changes were observed, including the creation of ice cauldrons, areas of wide-spread subsidence, punctures in the ice carved out by steam, and deposition from debris flows. In this paper, we use visual observations, satellite data, and a high resolution digital elevation model of the volcanic edifice to calculate ice loss at Redoubt as a function of time. Our aim is to establish from this time series a proxy for heat flow that can be compared to other data sets collected along the same time interval. Our study area consists of the Drift glacier, which flows from the summit crater down the volcano's north slope, and makes up about one quarter of Redoubt's total ice volume of ~ 4 km3. The upper part of the Drift glacier covers the area of recent volcanism, making this part of ice mass most susceptible to the effect of volcanic heating. Moreover, melt water and other flows are channeled down the Drift glacier drainage by topography, leaving the remainder of Redoubt's ice mantle relatively unaffected. The rate of ice loss averaged around 0.1 m3/s over the last four months of 2008, accelerated to over twenty times this value by February 2009, and peaked at greater than 22 m3/s, just prior to the first major explosion on March 22, 2009. We estimate a cumulative ice loss over this period of about 35 million cubic meters (M m3).

Antarctic ice sheet mass loss estimates using Modified Antarctic Mapping Mission surface flow observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ren, Diandong; Leslie, Lance M.; Lynch, Mervyn J.

2013-03-01

The long residence time of ice and the relatively gentle slopes of the Antarctica Ice Sheet make basal sliding a unique positive feedback mechanism in enhancing ice discharge along preferred routes. The highly organized ice stream channels extending to the interior from the lower reach of the outlets are a manifestation of the role of basal granular material in enhancing the ice flow. In this study, constraining the model-simulated year 2000 ice flow fields with surface velocities obtained from InSAR measurements permits retrieval of the basal sliding parameters. Forward integrations of the ice model driven by atmospheric and oceanic parameters from coupled general circulation models under different emission scenarios provide a range of estimates of total ice mass loss during the 21st century. The total mass loss rate has a small intermodel and interscenario spread, rising from approximately -160 km3/yr at present to approximately -220 km3/yr by 2100. The accelerated mass loss rate of the Antarctica Ice Sheet in a warming climate is due primarily to a dynamic response in the form of an increase in ice flow speed. Ice shelves contribute to this feedback through a reduced buttressing effect due to more frequent systematic, tabular calving events. For example, by 2100 the Ross Ice Shelf is projected to shed 40 km3 during each systematic tabular calving. After the frontal section's attrition, the remaining shelf will rebound. Consequently, the submerged cross-sectional area will reduce, as will the buttressing stress. Longitudinal differential warming of ocean temperature contributes to tabular calving. Because of the prevalence of fringe ice shelves, oceanic effects likely will play a very important role in the future mass balance of the Antarctica Ice Sheet, under a possible future warming climate.

Ice-sheet response to oceanic forcing.

PubMed

Joughin, Ian; Alley, Richard B; Holland, David M

2012-11-30

The ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica are losing ice at accelerating rates, much of which is a response to oceanic forcing, especially of the floating ice shelves. Recent observations establish a clear correspondence between the increased delivery of oceanic heat to the ice-sheet margin and increased ice loss. In Antarctica, most of these processes are reasonably well understood but have not been rigorously quantified. In Greenland, an understanding of the processes by which warmer ocean temperatures drive the observed retreat remains elusive. Experiments designed to identify the relevant processes are confounded by the logistical difficulties of instrumenting ice-choked fjords with actively calving glaciers. For both ice sheets, multiple challenges remain before the fully coupled ice-ocean-atmosphere models needed for rigorous sea-level projection are available.

Recent Ice Loss from the Fleming and Other Glaciers, Wordie Bay, West Antarctic Peninsula

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rignot, E.; Casassa, G.; Gogineni, S.; Kanagaratnam, P.; Krabill, W.; Pritchard, H.; Rivera, A.; Thomas, R.; Turner, J.; Vaughan, D.

2005-01-01

Satellite radar interferometry data from 1995 to 2004, and airborne ice thickness data from 2002, reveal that the glaciers flowing into former Wordie Ice Shelf, West Antarctic Peninsula, discharge 6.8 +/- 0.3 km(exp 3)/yr of ice, which is 84 +/- 30 percent larger than a snow accumulation of 3.7 +/- 0.8 km(exp 3)/yr over a 6,300 km(exp 2) drainage basin. Airborne and ICESat laser altimetry elevation data reveal glacier thinning at rates up to 2 m/yr. Fifty km from its ice front, Fleming Glacier flows 50 percent faster than it did in 1974 prior to the main collapse of Wordie Ice Shelf. We conclude that the glaciers accelerated following ice shelf removal, and have been thinning and losing mass to the ocean over the last decade. This and other observations suggest that the mass loss from the northern part of the Peninsula is not negligible at present.

Rapid Holocene thinning of an East Antarctic outlet glacier driven by marine ice sheet instability

PubMed Central

Jones, R. S.; Mackintosh, A. N.; Norton, K. P.; Golledge, N. R.; Fogwill, C. J.; Kubik, P. W.; Christl, M.; Greenwood, S. L.

2015-01-01

Outlet glaciers grounded on a bed that deepens inland and extends below sea level are potentially vulnerable to ‘marine ice sheet instability'. This instability, which may lead to runaway ice loss, has been simulated in models, but its consequences have not been directly observed in geological records. Here we provide new surface-exposure ages from an outlet of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet that reveal rapid glacier thinning occurred approximately 7,000 years ago, in the absence of large environmental changes. Glacier thinning persisted for more than two and a half centuries, resulting in hundreds of metres of ice loss. Numerical simulations indicate that ice surface drawdown accelerated when the otherwise steadily retreating glacier encountered a bedrock trough. Together, the geological reconstruction and numerical simulations suggest that centennial-scale glacier thinning arose from unstable grounding line retreat. Capturing these instability processes in ice sheet models is important for predicting Antarctica's future contribution to sea level change. PMID:26608558

What can we learn from the self-attraction and loading fingerprints about pre-GRACE mass-loss acceleration from Greenland and Antarctica?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, J. L.; Vinogradova, N. T.

2017-12-01

Tide-gauge records from the North Atlantic reveal significant acceleration in sea level starting in the late 20th century. We have analyzed the tide-gauge data using a model in which the accelerations are assumed to be zero prior to 1990. The estimated accelerations range from -1 to +3 m cy-2 and exhibit a systematic spatial variability. Davis and Vinogradova [2017] demonstrated that to model this variability in sea-level acceleration requires contributions from several distinct physical processes: accelerated mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets and acceleration associated with ocean circulation and heat uptake. Atmospheric pressure also contributes to the observed changes in sea level, at a much smaller amplitude. Because we are focusing on sea-level accelerations (i.e., sea-level rate changes), the contribution from Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) is negligible. Modeling of observed sea-level acceleration is achieved using external constraints for the important physical processes. Using GRACE results, we can calculate the sea-level "fingerprints" for Greenland and Antarctica associated with mass loading and gravitational perturbations. For the North Atlantic, Greenland induces a significant spatial variation in sea-level change—dominated by the solid-Earth response to the mass loss—whereas Antarctica contributes a spatially constant acceleration. The observations prefer a scaling of the solid-Earth/gravitational response, and we present the implications of this result for ice-mass changes prior to the onset of GRACE observations (2002-3).

The far reach of ice-shelf thinning in Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reese, R.; Gudmundsson, G. H.; Levermann, A.; Winkelmann, R.

2018-01-01

Floating ice shelves, which fringe most of Antarctica's coastline, regulate ice flow into the Southern Ocean1-3. Their thinning4-7 or disintegration8,9 can cause upstream acceleration of grounded ice and raise global sea levels. So far the effect has not been quantified in a comprehensive and spatially explicit manner. Here, using a finite-element model, we diagnose the immediate, continent-wide flux response to different spatial patterns of ice-shelf mass loss. We show that highly localized ice-shelf thinning can reach across the entire shelf and accelerate ice flow in regions far from the initial perturbation. As an example, this `tele-buttressing' enhances outflow from Bindschadler Ice Stream in response to thinning near Ross Island more than 900 km away. We further find that the integrated flux response across all grounding lines is highly dependent on the location of imposed changes: the strongest response is caused not only near ice streams and ice rises, but also by thinning, for instance, well-within the Filchner-Ronne and Ross Ice Shelves. The most critical regions in all major ice shelves are often located in regions easily accessible to the intrusion of warm ocean waters10-12, stressing Antarctica's vulnerability to changes in its surrounding ocean.

Antarctic sea ice losses drive gains in benthic carbon drawdown.

PubMed

Barnes, D K A

2015-09-21

Climate forcing of sea-ice losses from the Arctic and West Antarctic are blueing the poles. These losses are accelerating, reducing Earth's albedo and increasing heat absorption. Subarctic forest (area expansion and increased growth) and ice-shelf losses (resulting in new phytoplankton blooms which are eaten by benthos) are the only significant described negative feedbacks acting to counteract the effects of increasing CO2 on a warming planet, together accounting for uptake of ∼10(7) tonnes of carbon per year. Most sea-ice loss to date has occurred over polar continental shelves, which are richly, but patchily, colonised by benthic animals. Most polar benthos feeds on microscopic algae (phytoplankton), which has shown increased blooms coincident with sea-ice losses. Here, growth responses of Antarctic shelf benthos to sea-ice losses and phytoplankton increases were investigated. Analysis of two decades of benthic collections showed strong increases in annual production of shelf seabed carbon in West Antarctic bryozoans. These were calculated to have nearly doubled to >2x10(5) tonnes of carbon per year since the 1980s. Annual production of bryozoans is median within wider Antarctic benthos, so upscaling to include other benthos (combined study species typically constitute ∼3% benthic biomass) suggests an increased drawdown of ∼2.9x10(6) tonnes of carbon per year. This drawdown could become sequestration because polar continental shelves are typically deeper than most modern iceberg scouring, bacterial breakdown rates are slow, and benthos is easily buried. To date, most sea-ice losses have been Arctic, so, if hyperboreal benthos shows a similar increase in drawdown, polar continental shelves would represent Earth's largest negative feedback to climate change. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Downscaled ice-ocean simulations for the Chukchi and Eastern Siberian Seas from an oceanic re-analysis product

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fujisaki-Manome, A.; Wang, J.

2016-12-01

Arctic summer sea ice has been declining at the rate that is much faster than any climate models predict. While the accelerated sea ice melting in the recent few decades could be attributed to several mechanisms such as the Arctic temperature amplification and the ice-albedo feedback, this does not necessarily explain why climate models underestimate the observed rate of summer sea ice loss. Clearly, an improved understanding is needed in what processes could be missed in climate models and could play roles in unprecedented loss of sea ice. This study evaluates contributions of sub-mesoscale processes in the ice edge (i.e. the boundary region between open water and ice covered area), which include eddies, ice bands, and the vertical mixing associated with ice bands, to the melting of sea ice and how they explain the underestimation of sea ice loss in the current state-of-art climate models. The focus area is in the pacific side of the Arctic Ocean. First, several oceanic re-analysis products including NCEP-Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) and Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) are evaluated in comparison with the in-situ observations from the Russian-American Long-term Census of the Arctic (RUSALCA) project. Second, the downscaled ice-ocean simulations are conducted for the Chukchi and East Siberian Seas with initial and open boundary conditions provided from a selected oceanic re-analysis product.

Greenland ice sheet surface temperature, melt and mass loss: 2000-06

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hall, D.K.; Williams, R.S.; Luthcke, S.B.; DiGirolamo, N.E.

2008-01-01

A daily time series of 'clear-sky' surface temperature has been compiled of the Greenland ice sheet (GIS) using 1 km resolution moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) land-surface temperature (LST) maps from 2000 to 2006. We also used mass-concentration data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) to study mass change in relationship to surface melt from 2003 to 2006. The mean LST of the GIS increased during the study period by ???0.27??Ca-1. The increase was especially notable in the northern half of the ice sheet during the winter months. Melt-season length and timing were also studied in each of the six major drainage basins. Rapid (<15 days) and sustained mass loss below 2000 m elevation was triggered in 2004 and 2005 as recorded by GRACE when surface melt begins. Initiation of large-scale surface melt was followed rapidly by mass loss. This indicates that surface meltwater is flowing rapidly to the base of the ice sheet, causing acceleration of outlet glaciers, thus highlighting the metastability of parts of the GIS and the vulnerability of the ice sheet to air-temperature increases. If air temperatures continue to rise over Greenland, increased surface melt will play a large role in ice-sheet mass loss.

Recent high-resolution Antarctic ice velocity maps reveal increased mass loss in Wilkes Land, East Antarctica.

PubMed

Shen, Qiang; Wang, Hansheng; Shum, C K; Jiang, Liming; Hsu, Hou Tse; Dong, Jinglong

2018-03-14

We constructed Antarctic ice velocity maps from Landsat 8 images for the years 2014 and 2015 at a high spatial resolution (100 m). These maps were assembled from 10,690 scenes of displacement vectors inferred from more than 10,000 optical images acquired from December 2013 through March 2016. We estimated the mass discharge of the Antarctic ice sheet in 2008, 2014, and 2015 using the Landsat ice velocity maps, interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR)-derived ice velocity maps (~2008) available from prior studies, and ice thickness data. An increased mass discharge (53 ± 14 Gt yr -1 ) was found in the East Indian Ocean sector since 2008 due to unexpected widespread glacial acceleration in Wilkes Land, East Antarctica, while the other five oceanic sectors did not exhibit significant changes. However, present-day increased mass loss was found by previous studies predominantly in west Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula. The newly discovered increased mass loss in Wilkes Land suggests that the ocean heat flux may already be influencing ice dynamics in the marine-based sector of the East Antarctic ice sheet (EAIS). The marine-based sector could be adversely impacted by ongoing warming in the Southern Ocean, and this process may be conducive to destabilization.

Arctic Ice Management: an integrated approach to climate engineering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Desch, S. J.; Hartnett, H. E.; Groppi, C. E.; Romaniello, S. J.

2017-12-01

The warming climate is having the most rapid and pronounced effects in the high Arctic. The loss of Arctic sea ice is not only changing the physical oceanography of the Arctic Ocean and its coastlines; it is also promoting new conversations about the dangers and benefits for trade, transportation, and industry in the Arctic. The rate of decrease of summer sea ice in the Arctic is currently -300 km3 yr-1, a rate that will lead to complete loss of end-summer sea ice as soon as 2030. Preventing the strong positive feedbacks and increased warming due to sea ice albedo loss must be an important component of climate mitigation strategies. Here, we explore a direct engineering approach we call Arctic Ice Management (AIM) to reduce the loss of Arctic sea ice. We predict that pumping seawater onto the ice surface during the Arctic winter using wind-powered pumps can thicken sea ice by up to 1 m per year, reversing the current loss rates and prolonging the time until the Arctic Ocean is ice-free. Thickening sea ice would not change CO2 levels, which are the underlying cause of ice loss, but it would prevent some of the strongest feedbacks and would buy time to develop the tools and governance systems necessary to achieve carbon-neutrality. We advocate exploration of AIM as a mitigation strategy employed in parallel with CO2 reduction efforts. The opportunity and risk profiles of AIM differ from other geoengineering proposals. While similar in principle to solar radiation management, AIM may present fewer large-scale environmental risks. AIM is separate from greenhouse gas emission reduction or sequestration, but might help prevent accelerated release of methane from thawing permafrost. Further, AIM might be usefully employed at regional and local scales to preserve Arctic ecosystems and possibly reduce the effects of ice-loss induced coastal erosion. Through presentation of the AIM concept, we hope to spark new conversations between scientists, stakeholders, and decision-makers, and to provide an opportunity to expand the toolkit of geoengineering approaches for dealing with climate change.

Antarctic Mass Loss from GRACE from Space- and Time-Resolved Modeling with Slepian Functions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simons, F. J.; Harig, C.

2013-12-01

The melting of polar ice sheets is a major contributor to global sea-level rise. Antarctica is of particular interest since most of the mass loss has occurred in West Antarctica, however updated glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) models and recent mass gains in East Antarctica have reduced the continent-wide integrated decadal trend of mass loss. Here we present a spatially and temporally resolved estimation of the Antarctic ice mass change using Slepian localization functions. With a Slepian basis specifically for Antarctica, the basis functions maximize their energy on the continent and we can project the geopotential fields into a sparse set of orthogonal coefficients. By fitting polynomial functions to the limited basis coefficients we maximize signal-to-noise levels and need not perform smoothing or destriping filters common to other approaches. In addition we determine an empirical noise covariance matrix from the GRACE data to estimate the uncertainty of mass estimation. When applied to large ice sheets, as in our own recent Greenland work, this technique is able to resolve both the overall continental integrated mass trend, as well as the spatial distribution of the mass changes over time. Using CSR-RL05 GRACE data between Jan. 2003 and Jan 2013, we estimate the regional accelerations in mass change for several sub-regions and examine how the spatial pattern of mass has changed. The Amundsen Sea coast of West Antarctica has experienced a large acceleration in mass loss (-26 Gt/yr^2). While mass loss is concentrated near Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, it has also increased along the coast further towards the Ross ice shelf.

Rapid Ice Loss at Vatnajokull,Iceland Since Late 1990s Constrained by Synthetic Aperture Radar Interferometry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, W.; Amelung, F.; Dixon, T. H.; Wdowinski, S.

2012-12-01

Synthetic aperture radar interferometry time series is applied over Vatnajokull, Iceland by using 15 years ERS data. Ice loss at Vatnajokull accelerates since late 1990s especially after 21th century. Clear uplift signal due to ice mass loss is detected. The rebound signal is generally linear and increases a little bit after 2000. The relative annual velocity (GPS station 7485 as reference) is about 12 mm/yr at the ice cap edge, which matches the previous studies using GPS. The standard deviation compared to 11 GPS stations in this area is about 2 mm/yr. A relative-value modeling method ignoring the effect of viscous flow is chosen assuming elastic half space earth. The final ice loss estimation - 83 cm/yr - matches the climatology model with ground observations. Small Baseline Subsets is applied for time series analysis. Orbit error coupling with long wavelength phase trend due to horizontal plate motion is removed based on a second polynomial model. For simplicity, we do not consider atmospheric delay in this area because of no complex topography and small-scale turbulence is eliminated well after long-term average when calculating the annual mean velocity. Some unwrapping error still exits because of low coherence. Other uncertainties can be the basic assumption of ice loss pattern and spatial variation of the elastic parameters. It is the first time we apply InSAR time series for ice mass balance study and provide detailed error and uncertainty analysis. The successful of this application proves InSAR as an option for mass balance study and it is also important for validation of different ice loss estimation techniques.

The Rapidly Diminishing Arctic ice Cover and its Potential Impact on Navy Operational Considerations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muench, R. D.; Conlon, D.; Lamb, D.

2001-12-01

Observations made from U.S. Navy Fleet submarines during the 1990s have revealed a dramatic decrease in thickness, when compared to historical values, of the central Arctic Ocean pack ice cover. Estimates of this decrease have been as high as 40%. Remote sensing observations have shown a coincident decrease in the areal extent of the pack. The areal decrease has been especially apparent during winter. The overall loss of ice appears to have accelerated over the past decade, raising the possibility that the Northwest Passage and the Northern Sea Route may become seasonally navigable on a regular basis in the coming decade. The ice loss has been most evident in the peripheral seas and continental shelf areas. For example, during winter 2000-2001 the Bering Sea was effectively ice-free, with strong and immediate impacts on the surrounding indigenous populations. Lessening of the peripheral pack ice cover will presumably, lead to accelerated development of the resource-rich regions that surround the deep, central Arctic Ocean basin. This raises potential issues with respect to national security and commercial interests, and has implicit strategic concerns for the Navy. The timeline for a significantly navigable Arctic may extend decades into the future; however, operational requirements must be identified in the nearer term to ensure that the necessary capabilities exist when future Arctic missions do present themselves. A first step is to improve the understanding of the coupled atmosphere/ice/ocean system. Current environmental measurement and prediction, including Arctic weather and ice prediction, shallow water acoustic performance prediction, dynamic ocean environmental changes and data to support navigation is inadequate to support sustained naval operations in the Arctic. A new focus on data collection is required in order to measure, map, monitor and model Arctic weather, ice and oceanographic conditions.

A 70-year record of outlet glacier retreat in northern Greenland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hill, Emily; Carr, Rachel; Stokes, Chris; Gudmundsson, Hilmar

2017-04-01

Over the past two decades, the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) has undergone accelerated mass loss increasing its contribution to sea level rise. This is partly attributed to increased mass loss from dynamic marine-terminating outlet glaciers. Despite marine-terminating outlet glaciers in northern Greenland draining 40% of the ice sheet by area, they are comparatively less well-studied than other regions of the ice sheet (e.g. central west or south-east). This region could be susceptible to marine-ice sheet instability due to large proportions of the bedrock rested below sea level and is also unique in the presence of large floating ice tongues. Here, we use a range of satellite imagery sources, accompanied by historical maps, to examine multi-decadal front position changes at 21 outlet glaciers in northern Greenland between 1948 and 2016. We accompany these terminus changes, with annual records of ice velocity, climate-ocean forcing data, and glacier-specific factors (e.g. fjord-width and basal topography) to understand the dominant forcing on glacier dynamics in the region. Over the last 70 years, there has been a clear pattern of glacier retreat in northern Greenland. This is particularly notable during the last two decades, where 62% of our study glaciers showed accelerated retreat. This was most notable at Humboldt, Tracy, Hagen Brae, C. H. Ostenfeld and Petermann Glaciers, and in the case of the latter three glaciers, this involved substantial retreat of their floating ice tongues (> 10 km). Alongside retreat, several study glaciers underwent simultaneous velocity increases. However, the collapse of floating ice tongues did not always result in increased velocity. Similar to other regions of the ice sheet, recent glacier retreat in the northern regions of the Greenland Ice Sheet could be linked to climatic-oceanic forcing, but at this stage this remains largely unknown. This response to external forcing is further complicated by the presence of glacier-surging recorded at several of our study glaciers. As northern Greenland is predicted to undergo greater warming due to Arctic amplification during the 21st century, we conclude that the region could become an increasingly important source of mass loss.

Channelized Melting Drives Thinning Under a Rapidly Melting Antarctic Ice Shelf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gourmelen, Noel; Goldberg, Dan N.; Snow, Kate; Henley, Sian F.; Bingham, Robert G.; Kimura, Satoshi; Hogg, Anna E.; Shepherd, Andrew; Mouginot, Jeremie; Lenaerts, Jan T. M.; Ligtenberg, Stefan R. M.; van de Berg, Willem Jan

2017-10-01

Ice shelves play a vital role in regulating loss of grounded ice and in supplying freshwater to coastal seas. However, melt variability within ice shelves is poorly constrained and may be instrumental in driving ice shelf imbalance and collapse. High-resolution altimetry measurements from 2010 to 2016 show that Dotson Ice Shelf (DIS), West Antarctica, thins in response to basal melting focused along a single 5 km-wide and 60 km-long channel extending from the ice shelf's grounding zone to its calving front. If focused thinning continues at present rates, the channel will melt through, and the ice shelf collapse, within 40-50 years, almost two centuries before collapse is projected from the average thinning rate. Our findings provide evidence of basal melt-driven sub-ice shelf channel formation and its potential for accelerating the weakening of ice shelves.

High Artic Glaciers and Ice Caps Ice Mass Change from GRACE, Regional Climate Model Output and Altimetry.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciraci, E.; Velicogna, I.; Fettweis, X.; van den Broeke, M. R.

2016-12-01

The Arctic hosts more than the 75% of the ice covered regions outside from Greenland and Antarctica. Available observations show that increased atmospheric temperatures during the last century have contributed to a substantial glaciers retreat in all these regions. We use satellite gravimetry by the NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), and apply a least square fit mascon approach to calculate time series of ice mass change for the period 2002-2016. Our estimates show that arctic glaciers have constantly contributed to the sea level rise during the entire observation period with a mass change of -170+/-20 Gt/yr equivalent to the 80% of the total ice mass change from the world Glacier and Ice Caps (GIC) excluding the Ice sheet peripheral GIC, which we calculated to be -215+/-32 GT/yr, with an acceleration of 9+/-4 Gt/yr2. The Canadian Archipelago is the main contributor to the total mass depletion with an ice mass trend of -73+/-9 Gt/yr and a significant acceleration of -7+/-3 Gt/yr2. The increasing mass loss is mainly determined by melting glaciers located in the northern part of the archipelago.In order to investigate the physical processes driving the observed ice mass loss we employ satellite altimetry and surface mass balance (SMB) estimates from Regional climate model outputs available for the same time period covered by the gravimetry data. We use elevation data from the NASA ICESat (2003-2009) and ESA CryoSat-2 (2010-2016) missions to estimate ice elevation changes. We compare GRACE ice mass estimates with time series of surface mass balance from the Regional Climate Model (RACMO-2) and the Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR) and determine the portion of the total mass change explained by the SMB signal. We find that in Iceland and in the and the Canadian Archipelago the SMB signal explains most of the observed mass changes, suggesting that ice discharge may play a secondary role here. In other region, e.g. in Svalbar, the SMB signal explain only a portion of the observed mass loss, here elevation changes from altimetry observations suggest the presence of ice dynamic contribution.

Improving Estimates of Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Mass Balance with Satellite Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Briggs, K.

2016-12-01

Mass losses from the Greenland Ice Sheet have been accelerating over recent years (e.g. McMillan et al., 2016; Velicogna et al., 2014). This acceleration has predominantly been linked to increasing rates of negative surface mass balance, and in particular, increasing ice surface melt rates (e.g. McMillan et al., 2016; Velicogna et al., 2014). At the ice sheet scale, SMB is assessed using SMB model outputs, which in addition to enabling understanding of the origin of mass balance signals, are required as ancillary data in mass balance assessments from altimetry and the mass budget method. Due to the importance of SMB for mass balance over Greenland and the sensitivity of mass balance assessments to SMB model outputs, high accuracy of these models is crucial. A critical limiting factor in SMB modeling is however, a lack of in-situ data that is required for model constraint and evaluation. Such data is limited in time and space due to inherent logistical and financial constraints. Remote sensing datasets, being spatially extensive and relatively densely sampled in both space and time, do not suffer such constraints. Here, we show satellite observations of Greenland SMB. McMillan, M., Leeson, A., Shepherd, A., Briggs, K., Armitage, T. W.K., Hogg, A., Kuipers Munneke, P., van den Broeke, M., Noël, B., van de Berg, W., Ligtenberg, S., Horwath, M., Groh, A. , Muir, A. and Gilbert, L. 2016. A high resolution record of Greenland Mass Balance. Geophysical Research Letters. 43, doi:10.1002/2016GL069666 Velicogna, I., Sutterley, T. C. and van den Broeke, M. R. 2014. Regional acceleration in ice mass loss from Greenland and Antarctica using GRACE time-variable gravity data. Geophysical Research Letters. 41, 8130-8137, doi:10.1002/2014GL061052

Loss of sea ice in the Arctic.

PubMed

Perovich, Donald K; Richter-Menge, Jacqueline A

2009-01-01

The Arctic sea ice cover is in decline. The areal extent of the ice cover has been decreasing for the past few decades at an accelerating rate. Evidence also points to a decrease in sea ice thickness and a reduction in the amount of thicker perennial sea ice. A general global warming trend has made the ice cover more vulnerable to natural fluctuations in atmospheric and oceanic forcing. The observed reduction in Arctic sea ice is a consequence of both thermodynamic and dynamic processes, including such factors as preconditioning of the ice cover, overall warming trends, changes in cloud coverage, shifts in atmospheric circulation patterns, increased export of older ice out of the Arctic, advection of ocean heat from the Pacific and North Atlantic, enhanced solar heating of the ocean, and the ice-albedo feedback. The diminishing Arctic sea ice is creating social, political, economic, and ecological challenges.

A tipping point in refreezing accelerates mass loss of Greenland's glaciers and ice caps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noël, B.; van de Berg, W. J.; Lhermitte, S.; Wouters, B.; Machguth, H.; Howat, I.; Citterio, M.; Moholdt, G.; Lenaerts, J. T. M.; van den Broeke, M. R.

2017-03-01

Melting of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) and its peripheral glaciers and ice caps (GICs) contributes about 43% to contemporary sea level rise. While patterns of GrIS mass loss are well studied, the spatial and temporal evolution of GICs mass loss and the acting processes have remained unclear. Here we use a novel, 1 km surface mass balance product, evaluated against in situ and remote sensing data, to identify 1997 (+/-5 years) as a tipping point for GICs mass balance. That year marks the onset of a rapid deterioration in the capacity of the GICs firn to refreeze meltwater. Consequently, GICs runoff increases 65% faster than meltwater production, tripling the post-1997 mass loss to 36+/-16 Gt-1, or ~14% of the Greenland total. In sharp contrast, the extensive inland firn of the GrIS retains most of its refreezing capacity for now, buffering 22% of the increased meltwater production. This underlines the very different response of the GICs and GrIS to atmospheric warming.

Recent Changes in Ices Mass Balance of the Amundsen Sea Sector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sutterley, T. C.; Velicogna, I.; Rignot, E. J.; Mouginot, J.; Flament, T.; van den Broeke, M. R.; van Wessem, M.; Reijmer, C.

2014-12-01

The glaciers flowing into the Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE) sector of West Antarctica were confirmed in the Ice Sheet Mass Balance Inter-comparison Exercise (IMBIE) to be the dominant contributors to the current Antarctic ice mass loss, and recently recognized to be undergoing marine ice sheet instability. Here, we investigate their regional ice mass balance using a time series of satellite and airborne data combined with model output products from the Regional Atmospheric and Climate Model (RACMO). Our dataset includes laser altimetry from NASA's ICESat-1 satellite mission and from Operation IceBridge (OIB) airborne surveys, satellite radar altimetry data from ESA's Envisat mission, time-variable gravity data from NASA/DLR's GRACE mission, surface mass balance products from RACMO, ice velocity from a combination of international synthetic aperture radar satellites and ice thickness data from OIB. We find a record of ice mass balance for the ASE where all the analyzed techniques agree remarkably in magnitude and temporal variability. The mass loss of the region has been increasing continuously since 1992, with no indication of a slow down. The mass loss during the common period averaged 91 Gt/yr and accelerated 20 Gt/yr2. In 1992-2013, the ASE contributed 4.5 mm global sea level rise. Overall, our results demonstrate the synergy of multiple analysis techniques for examining Antarctic Ice Sheet mass balance at the regional scale. This work was performed at UCI and JPL under a contract with NASA.

40 Years of Glacier Change across the Himalayas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maurer, J. M.; Schaefer, J. M.; Rupper, S.

2017-12-01

Himalayan glaciers are central to societies, ecologies, and landscapes in South Asia. Retreating glaciers have been observed in the Himalayas from in-situ and satellite remote sensing measurements, yet different approaches provide a wide range of mass budget estimates. As glaciers respond dynamically to climate over decades and centuries, more observations of past glacier states are needed to gain perspective on existing shorter-timespan ice loss estimates, minimize effects of interannual variability, and to robustly evaluate glacier dynamics. Here we use a new suite of DEMs (digital elevation models) to estimate geodetic mass balance for over 1000 Himalayan glaciers spanning a 2000 km transect, during the years 1975-2000 and 2001-2016. Recent advances in DEM extraction from declassified Hexagon filmstrips, along with new public access to the global ASTER database have allowed for this large-scale analysis of regional ice loss. An average trendline (using a 30-glacier moving-window) reveals a spatially coherent ice loss signal across the entire transect during both periods, consistent with atmospheric warming as the primary Himalaya-wide driver of change. Our estimate of mean annual ice losses during the more recent period is approximately twice as negative (-0.39 ± 0.1 m.w.e. a-1) compared to the 1975-2000 baseline (-0.18 ± 0.1 m.w.e. a-1). This two-fold acceleration of ice loss during the 21st century agrees with the global average, parallel with recent observations of increasing rates of sea level rise. These surface-integrated geodetic mass balances are negligibly influenced by ice flow dynamics, thus are indicative of climate-driven glacier responses. Further analyses utilizing satellite-derived ice surface velocities will afford deconvolution of the surface mass balance and ice fluxes, providing additional insights into the dynamic responses of the glaciers.

Recent Changes in Arctic Glaciers, Ice Caps, and the Greenland Ice Sheet: Cold Facts About Warm Ice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdalati, W.

2005-12-01

One of the major manifestations of Arctic change can be observed in the state of balance of Arctic glaciers and ice caps and the Greenland ice sheet. These ice masses are estimated to contain nearly 3 million cubic kilometers of ice, which is more than six times greater than all the water stored in the Earth's lakes, rivers, and snow combined and is the equivalent of over 7 meters of sea level. Most of these ice masses have been shrinking in recent in years, but their mass balance is highly variable on a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. On the Greenland ice sheet most of the coastal regions have thinned substantially as melt has increased and some of its outlet glaciers have accelerated. Near the equilibrium line in West Greenland, we have seen evidence of summer acceleration that is linked to surface meltwater production, suggesting a relatively rapid response mechanism of the ice sheet change to a warming climate. At the same time, however, the vast interior regions of the Greenland ice sheet have shown little change or slight growth, as accumulation in these areas may have increased. Throughout much of the rest of the Arctic, many glaciers and ice caps have been shrinking in the past few decades, and in Canada and Alaska, the rate of ice loss seems to have accelerated during the late 1990s. These recent observations offer only a snapshot in time of the long-term behavior, but they are providing crucial information about the current state of ice mass balance and the mechanisms that control it in one of the most climatically sensitive regions on Earth. As we continue to learn more through a combination of remote sensing observations, in situ measurements and improved modeling capabilities, it is important that we coordinate and integrate these approaches effectively in order to predict future changes and their impact on sea level, freshwater discharge, and ocean circulation.

Glacier dynamics over the last quarter of a century at Jakobshavn Isbræ

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muresan, I. S.; Khan, S. A.; Aschwanden, A.; Khroulev, C.; Van Dam, T.; Bamber, J.; van den Broeke, M. R.; Wouters, B.; Kuipers Munneke, P.; Kjær, K. H.

2015-09-01

Observations over the past two decades show substantial ice loss associated with the speedup of marine terminating glaciers in Greenland. Here we use a regional 3-D outlet glacier model to simulate the behaviour of Jakobshavn Isbræ (JI) located in west Greenland. Using atmospheric and oceanic forcing we tune our model to reproduce the observed frontal changes of JI during 1990-2014. We identify two major accelerations. The first occurs in 1998, and is triggered by moderate thinning prior to 1998. The second acceleration, which starts in 2003 and peaks in summer 2004, is triggered by the final breakup of the floating tongue, which generates a reduction in buttressing at the JI terminus. This results in further thinning, and as the slope steepens inland, sustained high velocities have been observed at JI over the last decade. As opposed to other regions on the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS), where dynamically induced mass loss has slowed down over recent years, both modelled and observed results for JI suggest a continuation of the acceleration in mass loss. Further, we find that our model is not able to capture the 2012 peak in the observed velocities. Our analysis suggests that the 2012 acceleration of JI is likely the result of an exceptionally long melt season dominated by extreme melt events. Considering that such extreme surface melt events are expected to intensify in the future, our findings suggest that the 21st century projections of the GrIS mass loss and the future sea level rise may be larger than predicted by existing modelling results.

Greenland Ice Sheet Mass Balance: Distribution of Increased Mass Loss with Climate Warming; 2003-07 Versus 1992-2002

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zwally, H. Jay; Li, Jun; Benner, Anita C.; Beckley, Matthew; Cornejo, Helen G.; DiMarzio, John; Giovinetto, Mario B.; Neumann, Thomas A.; Robbins, John; Saba, Jack L.;

Spatial and Temporal Means and Variability of Arctic Sea Ice Climate Indicators from Satellite Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, G.; Meier, W.; Bliss, A. C.; Steele, M.; Dickinson, S.

2017-12-01

Arctic sea ice has been undergoing rapid and accelerated loss since satellite-based measurements became available in late 1970s, especially the summer ice coverage. For the Arctic as a whole, the long-term trend for the annual sea ice extent (SIE) minimum is about -13.5±2.93 % per decade change relative to the 1979-2015 climate average, while the trends of the annual SIE minimum for the local regions can range from 0 to up to -42 % per decade. This presentation aims to examine and baseline spatial and temporal means and variability of Arctic sea ice climate indicators, such as the annual SIE minimum and maximum, snow/ice melt onset, etc., from a consistent, inter-calibrated, long-term time series of remote sensing sea ice data for understanding regional vulnerability and monitoring ice state for climate adaptation and risk mitigation.

A tipping point in refreezing accelerates mass loss of Greenland's glaciers and ice caps.

PubMed

Noël, B; van de Berg, W J; Lhermitte, S; Wouters, B; Machguth, H; Howat, I; Citterio, M; Moholdt, G; Lenaerts, J T M; van den Broeke, M R

2017-03-31

Melting of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) and its peripheral glaciers and ice caps (GICs) contributes about 43% to contemporary sea level rise. While patterns of GrIS mass loss are well studied, the spatial and temporal evolution of GICs mass loss and the acting processes have remained unclear. Here we use a novel, 1 km surface mass balance product, evaluated against in situ and remote sensing data, to identify 1997 (±5 years) as a tipping point for GICs mass balance. That year marks the onset of a rapid deterioration in the capacity of the GICs firn to refreeze meltwater. Consequently, GICs runoff increases 65% faster than meltwater production, tripling the post-1997 mass loss to 36±16 Gt -1 , or ∼14% of the Greenland total. In sharp contrast, the extensive inland firn of the GrIS retains most of its refreezing capacity for now, buffering 22% of the increased meltwater production. This underlines the very different response of the GICs and GrIS to atmospheric warming.

A tipping point in refreezing accelerates mass loss of Greenland's glaciers and ice caps

PubMed Central

Noël, B.; van de Berg, W. J; Lhermitte, S.; Wouters, B.; Machguth, H.; Howat, I.; Citterio, M.; Moholdt, G.; Lenaerts, J. T. M.; van den Broeke, M. R.

2017-01-01

Melting of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) and its peripheral glaciers and ice caps (GICs) contributes about 43% to contemporary sea level rise. While patterns of GrIS mass loss are well studied, the spatial and temporal evolution of GICs mass loss and the acting processes have remained unclear. Here we use a novel, 1 km surface mass balance product, evaluated against in situ and remote sensing data, to identify 1997 (±5 years) as a tipping point for GICs mass balance. That year marks the onset of a rapid deterioration in the capacity of the GICs firn to refreeze meltwater. Consequently, GICs runoff increases 65% faster than meltwater production, tripling the post-1997 mass loss to 36±16 Gt−1, or ∼14% of the Greenland total. In sharp contrast, the extensive inland firn of the GrIS retains most of its refreezing capacity for now, buffering 22% of the increased meltwater production. This underlines the very different response of the GICs and GrIS to atmospheric warming. PMID:28361871

Sea Level Budget along the East Coast of North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pease, A. M.; Davis, J. L.; Vinogradova, N. T.

2016-12-01

We analyzed tide gauge data, taken from 1955 to 2015, from 29 locations along the east coast of North America. A well-documented period of sea-level acceleration began around 1990. The sea level rate (referenced to epoch 1985.0) and acceleration (post-1990) are spatially and temporally variable, due to various physical processes, each of which is also spatially and temporally variable. To determine the sea-level budgets for rate and acceleration, we considered a number of major contributors to sea level change: ocean density and dynamics, glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA), the inverted barometer effect, and mass change associated with the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) and the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS). The geographic variability in the budgets for sea-level rate is dominated by GIA. At some sites, GIA is the largest contributor to the rate. The geographic variability in the budgets for sea-level acceleration is dominated by ocean dynamics and density and GIS mass loss. The figure below shows budgets for sea-level rate (left) and acceleration (right) for Key West, Fla., (top) and The Battery in New York City (bottom). The blue represents values (with error bar shown) estimated from tide gauge observations, and the yellow represents the total values estimated from the individual model contributions (each in red, green, cyan, pink, and black). The estimated totals for rate and acceleration are good matches to the tide-gauge inferences. To achieve a reasonable fit, a scaling factor (admittance) for the combined contribution of ocean dynamics and density was estimated; this admittance may reflect the low spatial sampling of the GECCO2 model we used, or other problems in modeling coastal sea-level. The significant contributions of mass loss to the acceleration enable us to predict that, if such mass-loss continues or increases, the character of sea-level change on the North American east coast will change in the next 50-100 years. In particular, whereas GIA presently dominates the spatial variability of sea-level change, mass loss from Greenland and Antarctica will dominate it by 2050-2100. However, the long-term contribution of ocean dynamics and density remain more of a question.

Ice stream activity scaled to ice sheet volume during Laurentide Ice Sheet deglaciation.

PubMed

Stokes, C R; Margold, M; Clark, C D; Tarasov, L

2016-02-18

The contribution of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets to sea level has increased in recent decades, largely owing to the thinning and retreat of outlet glaciers and ice streams. This dynamic loss is a serious concern, with some modelling studies suggesting that the collapse of a major ice sheet could be imminent or potentially underway in West Antarctica, but others predicting a more limited response. A major problem is that observations used to initialize and calibrate models typically span only a few decades, and, at the ice-sheet scale, it is unclear how the entire drainage network of ice streams evolves over longer timescales. This represents one of the largest sources of uncertainty when predicting the contributions of ice sheets to sea-level rise. A key question is whether ice streams might increase and sustain rates of mass loss over centuries or millennia, beyond those expected for a given ocean-climate forcing. Here we reconstruct the activity of 117 ice streams that operated at various times during deglaciation of the Laurentide Ice Sheet (from about 22,000 to 7,000 years ago) and show that as they activated and deactivated in different locations, their overall number decreased, they occupied a progressively smaller percentage of the ice sheet perimeter and their total discharge decreased. The underlying geology and topography clearly influenced ice stream activity, but--at the ice-sheet scale--their drainage network adjusted and was linked to changes in ice sheet volume. It is unclear whether these findings can be directly translated to modern ice sheets. However, contrary to the view that sees ice streams as unstable entities that can accelerate ice-sheet deglaciation, we conclude that ice streams exerted progressively less influence on ice sheet mass balance during the retreat of the Laurentide Ice Sheet.

Increased West Antarctic and unchanged East Antarctic ice discharge over the last 7 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gardner, Alex S.; Moholdt, Geir; Scambos, Ted; Fahnstock, Mark; Ligtenberg, Stefan; van den Broeke, Michiel; Nilsson, Johan

2018-02-01

Ice discharge from large ice sheets plays a direct role in determining rates of sea-level rise. We map present-day Antarctic-wide surface velocities using Landsat 7 and 8 imagery spanning 2013-2015 and compare to earlier estimates derived from synthetic aperture radar, revealing heterogeneous changes in ice flow since ˜ 2008. The new mapping provides complete coastal and inland coverage of ice velocity north of 82.4° S with a mean error of < 10 m yr-1, resulting from multiple overlapping image pairs acquired during the daylight period. Using an optimized flux gate, ice discharge from Antarctica is 1929 ± 40 Gigatons per year (Gt yr-1) in 2015, an increase of 36 ± 15 Gt yr-1 from the time of the radar mapping. Flow accelerations across the grounding lines of West Antarctica's Amundsen Sea Embayment, Getz Ice Shelf and Marguerite Bay on the western Antarctic Peninsula, account for 88 % of this increase. In contrast, glaciers draining the East Antarctic Ice Sheet have been remarkably constant over the period of observation. Including modeled rates of snow accumulation and basal melt, the Antarctic ice sheet lost ice at an average rate of 183 ± 94 Gt yr-1 between 2008 and 2015. The modest increase in ice discharge over the past 7 years is contrasted by high rates of ice sheet mass loss and distinct spatial patters of elevation lowering. The West Antarctic Ice Sheet is experiencing high rates of mass loss and displays distinct patterns of elevation lowering that point to a dynamic imbalance. We find modest increase in ice discharge over the past 7 years, which suggests that the recent pattern of mass loss in Antarctica is part of a longer-term phase of enhanced glacier flow initiated in the decades leading up to the first continent-wide radar mapping of ice flow.

Extensive Liquid Meltwater Storage in Firn Within the Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Forster, Richard R.; Box, Jason E.; vandenBroeke, Michael R.; Miege, Clement; Burgess, Evan W.; vanAngelen, Jan H.; Lenaerts, Jan T. M.; Koenig, Lora S.; Paden, John; Lewis, Cameron;

Breaking Off of Large Ice Masses From Hanging Glaciers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pralong, A.; Funk, M.

In order to reduce damage to settlements or other installations (roads, railway, etc) and avoid loss of life, a forecast of the final failure time of ice masses is required. At present, the most promising approach for such a prediction is based on the regularity by which certain large ice masses accelerate prior to the instant of collapse. The lim- itation of this forecast lies in short-term irregularities and in the difficulties to obtain sufficiently accurate data. A better physical understanding of the breaking off process is required, in order to improve the forecasting method. Previous analyze has shown that a stepwise crack extension coupling with a viscous flow leads to the observed acceleration function. We propose another approach by considering a local damage evolution law (gener- alized Kachanow's law) coupled with Glen's flow law to simulate the spatial evolu- tion of damage in polycristalline ice, using a finite element computational model. The present study focuses on the transition from a diffuse to a localised damage reparti- tion occurring during the damage evolution. The influence of inhomogeneous initial conditions (inhomogeneity of the mechanical properties of ice, damage inhomogene- ity) and inhomogeneous boundary conditions on the damage repartition are especially investigated.

Large Fluctuations in Speed on Jakobshavn Isbrae, Greenland

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Joughin, Ian; Abdalati, Waleed; Fahnestock, Mark

2003-01-01

We have assembled an 18-year velocity record for Jakobshavn Isbrae, Greenland. From a 1985 speed of approx. 7000 m/yr, the glacier had slowed by approx. 1000 m/ yr in 1992, which coincided with independently observed thickening in the early 1990s . The glacier then sped up by approx. 4000 m/yr between 1997 and 2000, during which time other measurements show rapid thinning . From 2000 to 2003, the glacier s floating ice tongue almost entirely disintegrated, as speed increased to 12,600 m/yr. If the retreat of the ice tongue caused the acceleration, then similar losses of floating ice tongues since the Little Ice Age may explain the current rapid thinning observed for many of Greenland s outlet glaciers.

Preliminary Flight Deck Observations During Flight in High Ice Water Content Conditions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ratvasky, Thomas; Duchanoy, Dominque; Bourdinot, Jean-Francois; Harrah, Steven; Strapp, Walter; Schwarzenboeck, Alfons; Dezitter, Fabien; Grandin, Alice

2015-01-01

In 2006, Mason et al. identified common observations that occurred in engine power-loss events attributed to flight in high concentrations of ice crystals. Observations included light to moderate turbulence, precipitation on the windscreen (often reported as rain), aircraft total temperature anomalies, lack of significant airframe icing, and no flight radar echoes at the location and altitude of the engine event. Since 2006, Mason et al. and others have collected information from pilots who experienced engine power-loss events via interviews and questionnaires to substantiate earlier observations and support event analyses. In 2011, Mason and Grzych reported that vertical acceleration data showed increases in turbulence prior to engine events, although the turbulence was usually light to moderate and not unique to high ice water content (HIWC) clouds. Mason concluded that the observation of rain on the windscreen was due to melting of ice high concentrations of ice crystals on the windscreen, coalescing into drops. Mason also reported that these pilot observations of rain on the windscreen were varied. Many pilots indicated no rain was observed, while others observed moderate rain with unique impact sounds. Mason concluded that the variation in the reports may be due to variation in the ice concentration, particle size, and temperature.

Greenland's 20th Century retreat illuminated - great spatial variability with strong connections to subglacial topography and fjord bathymetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bjork, A. A.; Kjeldsen, K. K.; Boeckel, M. V.; Korsgaard, N. J.; Fenty, I. G.; Khan, S. A.; Mouginot, J.; Morlighem, M.; Rignot, E. J.; Dowdeswell, J. A.; Kjaer, K. H.

2017-12-01

Mass loss acceleration from the Greenland Ice Sheet is a dominant contributor in recent global sea-level rise, and has been for several decades. While ice sheet wide mass loss has recently been documented from the end of the Little Ice Age (c. 1900 CE) to the 1980s, the detailed changes during this period remain poorly known. In this study, we map glacier margins of Greenland's 310 largest outlet glaciers in order to get the full picture of the 20th Century mass loss. We take advantage of the rich history of aerial photography over Greenland and combine photos from archives in Denmark, Norway, United Kingdom, and United States. We supplement the historical aerial photographs with declassified US spy satellite imagery and recent satellite imagery to document glacial retreat and advance on a decadal scale. With recent advances in bathymetry mapping and subglacial topography mapping, we are able to show that spatial differences in retreat throughout the last 100 years are largely controlled by the underlying topography. Our study further highlights hotspots of past rapid mass loss in Greenland, and discusses implications for periods of regional stability and advance.

The safety band of Antarctic ice shelves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fürst, Johannes Jakob; Durand, Gaël; Gillet-Chaulet, Fabien; Tavard, Laure; Rankl, Melanie; Braun, Matthias; Gagliardini, Olivier

2016-05-01

The floating ice shelves along the seaboard of the Antarctic ice sheet restrain the outflow of upstream grounded ice. Removal of these ice shelves, as shown by past ice-shelf recession and break-up, accelerates the outflow, which adds to sea-level rise. A key question in predicting future outflow is to quantify the extent of calving that might precondition other dynamic consequences and lead to loss of ice-shelf restraint. Here we delineate frontal areas that we label as `passive shelf ice’ and that can be removed without major dynamic implications, with contrasting results across the continent. The ice shelves in the Amundsen and Bellingshausen seas have limited or almost no `passive’ portion, which implies that further retreat of current ice-shelf fronts will yield important dynamic consequences. This region is particularly vulnerable as ice shelves have been thinning at high rates for two decades and as upstream grounded ice rests on a backward sloping bed, a precondition to marine ice-sheet instability. In contrast to these ice shelves, Larsen C Ice Shelf, in the Weddell Sea, exhibits a large `passive’ frontal area, suggesting that the imminent calving of a vast tabular iceberg will be unlikely to instantly produce much dynamic change.

Sea Ice Summer Camp: Bringing Together Arctic Sea Ice Modelers and Observers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perovich, D. K.; Holland, M. M.

2016-12-01

The Arctic sea ice has undergone dramatic change and numerical models project this to continue for the foreseeable future. Understanding the mechanisms behind sea ice loss and its consequences for the larger Arctic and global systems is of critical importance if we are to anticipate and plan for the future. One impediment to progress is a disconnect between the observational and modeling communities. A sea ice summer camp was held in Barrow Alaska from 26 May to 1 June 2016 to overcome this impediment and better integrate the sea ice community. The 25 participants were a mix of modelers and observers from 13 different institutions at career stages from graduate student to senior scientist. The summer camp provided an accelerated program on sea ice observations and models and also fostered future collaborative interdisciplinary activities. Each morning was spent in the classroom with a daily lecture on an aspect of modeling or remote sensing followed by practical exercises. Topics included using models to assess sensitivity, to test hypotheses and to explore sources of uncertainty in future Arctic sea ice loss. The afternoons were spent on the ice making observations. There were four observational activities; albedo observations, ice thickness measurements, ice coring and physical properties, and ice morphology surveys. The last field day consisted of a grand challenge where the group formulated a hypothesis, developed an observational and modeling strategy to test the hypothesis, and then integrated the observations and model results. The impacts of changing sea ice are being felt today in Barrow Alaska. We opened a dialog with Barrow community members to further understand these changes. This included an evening discussion with two Barrow sea ice experts and a community presentation of our work in a public lecture at the Inupiat Heritage Center.

Tipping elements in the Arctic marine ecosystem.

PubMed

Duarte, Carlos M; Agustí, Susana; Wassmann, Paul; Arrieta, Jesús M; Alcaraz, Miquel; Coello, Alexandra; Marbà, Núria; Hendriks, Iris E; Holding, Johnna; García-Zarandona, Iñigo; Kritzberg, Emma; Vaqué, Dolors

2012-02-01

The Arctic marine ecosystem contains multiple elements that present alternative states. The most obvious of which is an Arctic Ocean largely covered by an ice sheet in summer versus one largely devoid of such cover. Ecosystems under pressure typically shift between such alternative states in an abrupt, rather than smooth manner, with the level of forcing required for shifting this status termed threshold or tipping point. Loss of Arctic ice due to anthropogenic climate change is accelerating, with the extent of Arctic sea ice displaying increased variance at present, a leading indicator of the proximity of a possible tipping point. Reduced ice extent is expected, in turn, to trigger a number of additional tipping elements, physical, chemical, and biological, in motion, with potentially large impacts on the Arctic marine ecosystem.

Ice-shelf collapse from subsurface warming as a trigger for Heinrich events

PubMed Central

Marcott, Shaun A.; Clark, Peter U.; Padman, Laurie; Klinkhammer, Gary P.; Springer, Scott R.; Liu, Zhengyu; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.; Carlson, Anders E.; Ungerer, Andy; Padman, June; He, Feng; Cheng, Jun; Schmittner, Andreas

2011-01-01

Episodic iceberg-discharge events from the Hudson Strait Ice Stream (HSIS) of the Laurentide Ice Sheet, referred to as Heinrich events, are commonly attributed to internal ice-sheet instabilities, but their systematic occurrence at the culmination of a large reduction in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) indicates a climate control. We report Mg/Ca data on benthic foraminifera from an intermediate-depth site in the northwest Atlantic and results from a climate-model simulation that reveal basin-wide subsurface warming at the same time as large reductions in the AMOC, with temperature increasing by approximately 2 °C over a 1–2 kyr interval prior to a Heinrich event. In simulations with an ocean model coupled to a thermodynamically active ice shelf, the increase in subsurface temperature increases basal melt rate under an ice shelf fronting the HSIS by a factor of approximately 6. By analogy with recent observations in Antarctica, the resulting ice-shelf loss and attendant HSIS acceleration would produce a Heinrich event. PMID:21808034

Surface melt effects on Cryosat-2 elevation retrievals in the ablation zone of the Greenland ice sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Slater, T.; McMillan, M.; Shepherd, A.; Leeson, A.; Cornford, S. L.; Hogg, A.; Gilbert, L.; Muir, A. S.; Briggs, K.

2017-12-01

Over the past two decades, there has been an acceleration in the rate of mass losses from the Greenland ice sheet. This acceleration is, in part, attributed to an increasingly negative surface mass balance (SMB), linked to increasing melt water runoff rates due to enhanced surface melting. Understanding the past, present and future evolution in surface melting is central to ongoing monitoring of ice sheet mass balance and, in turn, to building realistic future projections. Currently, regional climate models are commonly used for this purpose, because direct in-situ observations are spatially and temporally sparse due to the logistics and resources required to collect such data. In particular, modelled SMB is used to estimate the extent and magnitude of surface melting, which influences (1) many geodetic mass balance estimates, and (2) snowpack microwave scattering properties. The latter is poorly understood and introduces uncertainty into radar altimeter estimates of ice sheet evolution. Here, we investigate the changes in CryoSat-2 waveforms and elevation measurements caused by the onset of surface melt in the summer months over the ablation zone of the Greenland ice sheet. Specifically, we use CryoSat-2 SARIn mode data acquired between 2011 and 2016, to characterise the effect of high variability in surface melt during this period, and to assess the associated impact on estimates of ice mass balance.

Ice Mass Changes in the Russian High Arctic from Repeat High Resolution Topography.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Willis, Michael; Zheng, Whyjay; Pritchard, Matthew; Melkonian, Andrew; Morin, Paul; Porter, Claire; Howat, Ian; Noh, Myoung-Jong; Jeong, Seongsu

2016-04-01

We use a combination of ASTER and cartographically derived Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) supplemented with WorldView DEMs, the ArcticDEM and ICESat lidar returns to produce a time-series of ice changes occurring in the Russian High Arctic between the mid-20th century and the present. Glaciers on the western, Barents Sea coast of Novaya Zemlya are in a state of general retreat and thinning, while those on the eastern, Kara Sea coast are retreating at a slower rate. Franz Josef Land has a complicated pattern of thinning and thickening, although almost all the thinning is associated with rapid outlet glaciers feeding ice shelves. Severnaya Zemlya is also thinning in a complicated manner. A very rapid surging glacier is transferring mass into the ocean from the western periphery of the Vavilov Ice Cap on October Revolution Island, while glaciers feeding the former Matusevich Ice Shelf continue to thin at rates that are faster than those observed during the operational period of ICESat, between 2003 and 2009. Passive microwave studies indicate the total number of melt days is increasing in the Russian Arctic, although much of the melt may refreeze within the firn. It is likely that ice dynamic changes will drive mass loss for the immediate future. The sub-marine basins beneath several of the ice caps in the region suggest the possibility that mass loss rates may accelerate in the future.

Antarctic ice sheet discharge driven by atmosphere-ocean feedbacks at the Last Glacial Termination.

PubMed

Fogwill, C J; Turney, C S M; Golledge, N R; Etheridge, D M; Rubino, M; Thornton, D P; Baker, A; Woodward, J; Winter, K; van Ommen, T D; Moy, A D; Curran, M A J; Davies, S M; Weber, M E; Bird, M I; Munksgaard, N C; Menviel, L; Rootes, C M; Ellis, B; Millman, H; Vohra, J; Rivera, A; Cooper, A

2017-01-05

Reconstructing the dynamic response of the Antarctic ice sheets to warming during the Last Glacial Termination (LGT; 18,000-11,650 yrs ago) allows us to disentangle ice-climate feedbacks that are key to improving future projections. Whilst the sequence of events during this period is reasonably well-known, relatively poor chronological control has precluded precise alignment of ice, atmospheric and marine records, making it difficult to assess relationships between Antarctic ice-sheet (AIS) dynamics, climate change and sea level. Here we present results from a highly-resolved 'horizontal ice core' from the Weddell Sea Embayment, which records millennial-scale AIS dynamics across this extensive region. Counterintuitively, we find AIS mass-loss across the full duration of the Antarctic Cold Reversal (ACR; 14,600-12,700 yrs ago), with stabilisation during the subsequent millennia of atmospheric warming. Earth-system and ice-sheet modelling suggests these contrasting trends were likely Antarctic-wide, sustained by feedbacks amplified by the delivery of Circumpolar Deep Water onto the continental shelf. Given the anti-phase relationship between inter-hemispheric climate trends across the LGT our findings demonstrate that Southern Ocean-AIS feedbacks were controlled by global atmospheric teleconnections. With increasing stratification of the Southern Ocean and intensification of mid-latitude westerly winds today, such teleconnections could amplify AIS mass loss and accelerate global sea-level rise.

Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Temperature, Melt, and Mass Loss: 2000-2006

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hall, Dorothy K.; Williams, Richard S., Jr.; Luthcke, Scott B.; DiGirolamo, Nocolo

2007-01-01

Extensive melt on the Greenland Ice Sheet has been documented by a variety of ground and satellite measurements in recent years. If the well-documented warming continues in the Arctic, melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet will likely accelerate, contributing to sea-level rise. Modeling studies indicate that an annual or summer temperature rise of 1 C on the ice sheet will increase melt by 20-50% therefore, surface temperature is one of the most important ice-sheet parameters to study for analysis of changes in the mass balance of the ice-sheet. The Greenland Ice Sheet contains enough water to produce a rise in eustatic sea level of up to 7.0 m if the ice were to melt completely. However, even small changes (centimeters) in sea level would cause important economic and societal consequences in the world's major coastal cities thus it is extremely important to monitor changes in the ice-sheet surface temperature and to ultimately quantify these changes in terms of amount of sea-level rise. We have compiled a high-resolution, daily time series of surface temperature of the Greenland Ice Sheet, using the I-km resolution, clear-sky land-surface temperature (LST) standard product from the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), from 2000 - 2006. We also use Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data, averaged over 10-day periods, to measure change in mass of the ice sheet as it melt and snow accumulates. Surface temperature can be used to determine frequency of surface melt, timing of the start and the end of the melt season, and duration of melt. In conjunction with GRACE data, it can also be used to analyze timing of ice-sheet mass loss and gain.

Long term ice sheet mass change rates and inter-annual variability from GRACE gravimetry.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harig, C.

2017-12-01

The GRACE time series of gravimetry now stretches 15 years since its launch in 2002. Here we use Slepian functions to estimate the long term ice mass trends of Greenland, Antarctica, and several glaciated regions. The spatial representation shows multi-year to decadal regional shifts in accelerations, in agreement with increases in radar derived ice velocity. Interannual variations in ice mass are of particular interest since they can directly link changes in ice sheets to the drivers of change in the polar ocean and atmosphere. The spatial information retained in Slepian functions provides a tool to determine how this link varies in different regions within an ice sheet. We present GRACE observations of the 2013-2014 slowdown in mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet, which was concentrated in specific parts of the ice sheet and in certain months of the year. We also discuss estimating the relative importance of climate factors that control ice mass balance, as a function of location of the glacier/ice cap as well as the spatial variation within an ice sheet by comparing gravimetry with observations of surface air temperature, ocean temperature, etc. as well as model data from climate reanalysis products.

Future sea-level rise from Greenland's main outlet glaciers in a warming climate.

PubMed

Nick, Faezeh M; Vieli, Andreas; Andersen, Morten Langer; Joughin, Ian; Payne, Antony; Edwards, Tamsin L; Pattyn, Frank; van de Wal, Roderik S W

2013-05-09

Over the past decade, ice loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet increased as a result of both increased surface melting and ice discharge to the ocean. The latter is controlled by the acceleration of ice flow and subsequent thinning of fast-flowing marine-terminating outlet glaciers. Quantifying the future dynamic contribution of such glaciers to sea-level rise (SLR) remains a major challenge because outlet glacier dynamics are poorly understood. Here we present a glacier flow model that includes a fully dynamic treatment of marine termini. We use this model to simulate behaviour of four major marine-terminating outlet glaciers, which collectively drain about 22 per cent of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Using atmospheric and oceanic forcing from a mid-range future warming scenario that predicts warming by 2.8 degrees Celsius by 2100, we project a contribution of 19 to 30 millimetres to SLR from these glaciers by 2200. This contribution is largely (80 per cent) dynamic in origin and is caused by several episodic retreats past overdeepenings in outlet glacier troughs. After initial increases, however, dynamic losses from these four outlets remain relatively constant and contribute to SLR individually at rates of about 0.01 to 0.06 millimetres per year. These rates correspond to ice fluxes that are less than twice those of the late 1990s, well below previous upper bounds. For a more extreme future warming scenario (warming by 4.5 degrees Celsius by 2100), the projected losses increase by more than 50 per cent, producing a cumulative SLR of 29 to 49 millimetres by 2200.

Changes in ice dynamics along the northern Antarctic Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seehaus, Thorsten; Marinsek, Sebastian; Cook, Alison; Van Wessem, Jan-Melchior; Braun, Matthias

2017-04-01

The climatic conditions along the Antarctic Peninsula have undergone considerable changes during the last 50 years. A period of pronounced air temperature rise, increasing ocean temperatures as well as changes in the precipitation pattern have been reported by various authors. Consequently, the glacial systems showed changes including widespread retreat, surface lowering as well as variations in flow speeds. During the last decades numerous ice shelves along the Antarctic Peninsula retreated, started to break-up or disintegrated completely. The loss of the buttressing effect caused tributary glaciers to accelerate with increasing ice discharge along the Antarctic Peninsula. Quantification of the mass changes is still subject to considerable errors although numbers derived from the different methods are converging. The aim is to study the reaction of glaciers at the northern Antarctic Peninsula to the changing climatic conditions and the readjustments of tributary glaciers to ice shelf disintegration, as well as to better quantify the ice mass loss and its temporal changes. We analysed time series of various satellite sensors (ERS-1/2 SAR, ENVISAT ASAR, RADARSAT-1, ALOS PALSAR, TerraSAR-X/TanDEM-X, ASTER, Landsat) to detect changes in ice dynamics of 74 glacier basins along the northern Antarctic Peninsula (<65°). Intensity feature tracking techniques were applied on data stacks from different SAR satellites over the last 20 years to infer temporal trends in glacier surface velocities. In combination with ice thickness reconstructions and modeled climatic mass balance fields regional imbalances were calculated. Variations in ice front position were mapped based on optical and SAR satellite data sets. Along the west coast of the northern Antarctic Peninsula an increase in flow speeds by 40% between 1992 and 2014 was observed, whereas glaciers on the east side (north of former Prince-Gustav Ice Shelf) showed a strong deceleration. Nearly all former ice shelf tributaries showed similar reactions to ice shelf disintegration, with a significant acceleration and frontal retreat after ice shelf break-up and a subsequent deceleration and front stabilization. In total an ice discharge of 17.93±6.22 Gt/a was estimated for the study region in the period 2010-2014. Regional mass balance estimates indicate nearly balanced mass budgets in the period 1992-1996 and positive imbalances in more recent years (2010-2014), dominated by the clearly positive mass balances along the west coast due to high climatic mass balances. The detailed multi-mission time series analysis of glacier changes supports the interpretation of the ongoing processes in this region and allows multi temporal imbalance estimates.

Storage and release of organic carbon from glaciers and ice sheets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hood, Eran; Battin, Tom J.; Fellman, Jason; O'Neel, Shad; Spencer, Robert G. M.

2015-02-01

Polar ice sheets and mountain glaciers, which cover roughly 11% of the Earth's land surface, store organic carbon from local and distant sources and then release it to downstream environments. Climate-driven changes to glacier runoff are expected to be larger than climate impacts on other components of the hydrological cycle, and may represent an important flux of organic carbon. A compilation of published data on dissolved organic carbon from glaciers across five continents reveals that mountain and polar glaciers represent a quantitatively important store of organic carbon. The Antarctic Ice Sheet is the repository of most of the roughly 6 petagrams (Pg) of organic carbon stored in glacier ice, but the annual release of glacier organic carbon is dominated by mountain glaciers in the case of dissolved organic carbon and the Greenland Ice Sheet in the case of particulate organic carbon. Climate change contributes to these fluxes: approximately 13% of the annual flux of glacier dissolved organic carbon is a result of glacier mass loss. These losses are expected to accelerate, leading to a cumulative loss of roughly 15 teragrams (Tg) of glacial dissolved organic carbon by 2050 due to climate change -- equivalent to about half of the annual flux of dissolved organic carbon from the Amazon River. Thus, glaciers constitute a key link between terrestrial and aquatic carbon fluxes, and will be of increasing importance in land-to-ocean fluxes of organic carbon in glacierized regions.

Storage and release of organic carbon from glaciers and ice sheets

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hood, Eran; Battin, Tom J.; Fellman, Jason; O'Neel, Shad; Spencer, Robert G. M.

2015-01-01

Polar ice sheets and mountain glaciers, which cover roughly 11% of the Earth's land surface, store organic carbon from local and distant sources and then release it to downstream environments. Climate-driven changes to glacier runoff are expected to be larger than climate impacts on other components of the hydrological cycle, and may represent an important flux of organic carbon. A compilation of published data on dissolved organic carbon from glaciers across five continents reveals that mountain and polar glaciers represent a quantitatively important store of organic carbon. The Antarctic Ice Sheet is the repository of most of the roughly 6 petagrams (Pg) of organic carbon stored in glacier ice, but the annual release of glacier organic carbon is dominated by mountain glaciers in the case of dissolved organic carbon and the Greenland Ice Sheet in the case of particulate organic carbon. Climate change contributes to these fluxes: approximately 13% of the annual flux of glacier dissolved organic carbon is a result of glacier mass loss. These losses are expected to accelerate, leading to a cumulative loss of roughly 15 teragrams (Tg) of glacial dissolved organic carbon by 2050 due to climate change — equivalent to about half of the annual flux of dissolved organic carbon from the Amazon River. Thus, glaciers constitute a key link between terrestrial and aquatic carbon fluxes, and will be of increasing importance in land-to-ocean fluxes of organic carbon in glacierized regions.

Simulating ice thickness and velocity evolution of Upernavik Isstrøm 1849-2017 with ISSM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haubner, K.; Box, J.; Schlegel, N.; Larour, E. Y.; Morlighem, M.; Solgaard, A.; Kjeldsen, K. K.; Larsen, S. H.; Rignot, E. J.; Dupont, T. K.; Kjaer, K. H.

2017-12-01

Tidewater terminus changes have a significant influence on glacier velocity and mass balance and impact therefore Greenland's ice mass balance. Improving glacier front changes in ice sheet models helps understanding the processes that are driving glacier mass changes and improves predictions on Greenland's mass loss. We use the level set based moving boundary capability (Bondzio et al., 2016) included in the Ice Sheet System Model ISSM to reconstruct velocity and thickness changes on Upernavik Isstrøm, Greenland from 1849 to 2017. During the simulation, we use various data sets. For the model initialization, trim line data and an observed calving front position determine the shape of the ice surface elevation. The terminus changes are prescribed by observations. Data sets like the GIMP DEM, ArcticDEM, IceBridge surface elevation and ice surface velocities from the ESA project CCI and NASA project MEaSUREs help evaluating the simulation performance. The simulation is sensitive to the prescribed terminus changes, showing an average acceleration along the three flow lines between 50% and 190% from 1849 to 2017. Simulated ice surface velocity and elevation between 1990 and 2012 are within +/-20% of observations (GIMP, ArcticDEM, IceBridge, CCI and MEaSUREs). Simulated mass changes indicate increased dynamical ice loss from 1932 onward, amplified by increased negative SMB anomalies after 1998. More detailed information about methods and findings can be found in Haubner et al., 2017 (in TC discussion, describing simulation results between 1849-2012). Future goals are the comparison of ice surface velocity changes simulated with prescribed terminus retreat against other retreat schemes (Morlighem et al., 2016; Levermann et al., 2012; Bondzio et al., 2017) and applying the method onto other tidewater glaciers.

Recent rift formation and impact on the structural integrity of the Brunt Ice Shelf, East Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Rydt, Jan; Hilmar Gudmundsson, G.; Nagler, Thomas; Wuite, Jan; King, Edward C.

2018-02-01

We report on the recent reactivation of a large rift in the Brunt Ice Shelf, East Antarctica, in December 2012 and the formation of a 50 km long new rift in October 2016. Observations from a suite of ground-based and remote sensing instruments between January 2000 and July 2017 were used to track progress of both rifts in unprecedented detail. Results reveal a steady accelerating trend in their width, in combination with alternating episodes of fast ( > 600 m day-1) and slow propagation of the rift tip, controlled by the heterogeneous structure of the ice shelf. A numerical ice flow model and a simple propagation algorithm based on the stress distribution in the ice shelf were successfully used to hindcast the observed trajectories and to simulate future rift progression under different assumptions. Results show a high likelihood of ice loss at the McDonald Ice Rumples, the only pinning point of the ice shelf. The nascent iceberg calving and associated reduction in pinning of the Brunt Ice Shelf may provide a uniquely monitored natural experiment of ice shelf variability and provoke a deeper understanding of similar processes elsewhere in Antarctica.

Mechanisms and Simulation of accelerated shrinkage of continental glaciers: a case study of Urumqi Glacier No. 1 Eastern Tianshan, Central Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zhongqin; Ren, Jiawen; Li, Huilin; Wang, Puyu; Wang, Feiteng

2016-04-01

Similar to most mountain glaciers in the world, Urumqi Glacier No. 1 (UG1), the best observed glacier in China with continued glaciological and climatological monitoring records of longer than 50 years has experienced an accelerated recession during the past several decades. The purpose of this study is to investigate the acceleration of recession. By taking UG1 as an example, we analyze the generic mechanisms of acceleration of shrinkage of continental mountain glaciers. The results indicate that the acceleration of mass loss of UG1 commenced first in 1985 and second in 1996 and that the latter was more vigorous. The air temperature rises during melting season, the ice temperature augment of the glacier and the albedo reduction on the glacier surface are considered responsible for the accelerated recession. In addition, the simulations of the accelerated shrinkage of UG1 are introduced.

Ice shelf fracture parameterization in an ice sheet model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Sainan; Cornford, Stephen L.; Moore, John C.; Gladstone, Rupert; Zhao, Liyun

2017-11-01

Floating ice shelves exert a stabilizing force onto the inland ice sheet. However, this buttressing effect is diminished by the fracture process, which on large scales effectively softens the ice, accelerating its flow, increasing calving, and potentially leading to ice shelf breakup. We add a continuum damage model (CDM) to the BISICLES ice sheet model, which is intended to model the localized opening of crevasses under stress, the transport of those crevasses through the ice sheet, and the coupling between crevasse depth and the ice flow field and to carry out idealized numerical experiments examining the broad impact on large-scale ice sheet and shelf dynamics. In each case we see a complex pattern of damage evolve over time, with an eventual loss of buttressing approximately equivalent to halving the thickness of the ice shelf. We find that it is possible to achieve a similar ice flow pattern using a simple rule of thumb: introducing an enhancement factor ˜ 10 everywhere in the model domain. However, spatially varying damage (or equivalently, enhancement factor) fields set at the start of prognostic calculations to match velocity observations, as is widely done in ice sheet simulations, ought to evolve in time, or grounding line retreat can be slowed by an order of magnitude.

Leakage of the Greenland Ice Sheet through accelerated ice flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rignot, E.

2005-12-01

A map of coastal velocities of the Greenland ice sheet was produced from Radarsat-1 acquired during the background mission of 2000 and combined with radio echo sounding data to estimate the ice discharge from the ice sheet. On individual glaciers, ice discharge was compared with snow input from the interior and melt above the flux gate to determine the glacier mass balance. Time series of velocities on several glaciers at different latitudes reveal seasonal fluctuations of only 7-8 percent so that winter velocities are only 2 percent less than the yearly mean. The results show the northern Greenland glaciers to be close to balance yet losing mass. No change in ice flow is detected on Petermann, 79north and Zachariae Isstrom in 2000-2004. East Greenland glaciers are in balance and flowing steadily north of Kangerdlussuaq, but Kangerdlussuaq, Helheim and all the southeastern glaciers are thinning dramatically. All these glaciers accelerated, Kangerdlussuaq in 2000, Helheim prior to 2004, and southeast Greenland glaciers accelerated 10 to 50 percent in 2000-2004. Glacier acceleration is generally brutal, probably once the glacier reached a threshold, and sustained. In the northwest, most glaciers are largely out of balance. Jakobshavn accelerated significantly in 2002, and glaciers in its immediate vicinity accelerated more than 50 percent in 2000-2004. Less is known about southwest Greenland glaciers due to a lack of ice thickness data but the glaciers have accelerated there as well and are likely to be strongly out of balance despite thickening of the interior. Overall, I estimate the mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet to be about -80 +/-10 cubic km of ice per year in 2000 and -110 +/-15 cubic km of ice per year in 2004, i.e. more negative than based on partial altimetry surveys of the outlet glaciers. As climate continues to warm, more glaciers will accelerate, and the mass balance will become increasingly negative, regardless of the evolution of the ice sheet interior.

Contemporary sea level rise.

PubMed

Cazenave, Anny; Llovel, William

2010-01-01

Measuring sea level change and understanding its causes has considerably improved in the recent years, essentially because new in situ and remote sensing observations have become available. Here we report on most recent results on contemporary sea level rise. We first present sea level observations from tide gauges over the twentieth century and from satellite altimetry since the early 1990s. We next discuss the most recent progress made in quantifying the processes causing sea level change on timescales ranging from years to decades, i.e., thermal expansion of the oceans, land ice mass loss, and land water-storage change. We show that for the 1993-2007 time span, the sum of climate-related contributions (2.85 +/- 0.35 mm year(-1)) is only slightly less than altimetry-based sea level rise (3.3 +/- 0.4 mm year(-1)): approximately 30% of the observed rate of rise is due to ocean thermal expansion and approximately 55% results from land ice melt. Recent acceleration in glacier melting and ice mass loss from the ice sheets increases the latter contribution up to 80% for the past five years. We also review the main causes of regional variability in sea level trends: The dominant contribution results from nonuniform changes in ocean thermal expansion.

Ice-Cliff Failure via Retrogressive Slumping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parizek, B. R.; Christianson, K.; Alley, R. B.; Voytenko, D.; Vankova, I.; Dixon, T. H.; Holland, D.

2016-12-01

The magnitude and rate of future sea-level rise from warming-induced ice-sheet shrinkage remain notably uncertain. Removal of most of an ice sheet by surface melting alone requires centuries to millennia. Oceanic warming may accelerate loss by removing buttressing ice shelves and thereby speeding flow of non-floating ice into the ocean, but, until recently, modeled timescales for major dynamic ice-sheet shrinkage were centuries or longer. Beyond certain thresholds, however, observations show that warming removes floating ice shelves, leaving grounded ice cliffs from which icebergs break off directly. Cliffs higher than some limit experience rapid structural failure. Recent parameterization of this process in a comprehensive ice-flow model produced much faster sea-level rise from future rapid warming than in previous modeling studies, through formation and retreat of tall ice cliffs. Fully physical representations of this process are not yet available, however. Here, we use modeling guided by terrestrial radar data from Helheim Glacier, Greenland to show that cliffs will fail by slumping and trigger rapid retreat at a threshold height that, in crevassed ice with surface melting, may be only slightly above the 100-m maximum observed today, but may be roughly twice that (180-275 m) in mechanically-competent ice under well-drained or low-melt conditions.

Rewriting Ice Sheet "Glacier-ology"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bindschadler, R.

2006-12-01

The revolution in glaciology driven by the suite of increasingly sophisticated satellite instruments has been no more extreme than in the area of ice dynamics. Years ago, glaciologists were (probably unwittingly) selective in what properties of mountain glaciers were also applied to ice sheets. This reinforced the view that they responded slowly to their environment. Notions of rapid response driven by the ideas of John Mercer, Bill Budd and Terry Hughes were politely rejected by the centrists of mainstream glaciological thought. How the tables have turned--and by the ice sheets themselves, captured in the act of rapidly changing by modern remote sensors! The saw-toothed record of sea-level change over past glacial-interglacial cycles required the existence of rapid ice loss processes. Satellite based observations, supported by hard-earned field observations have extended the time scale over which ice sheets can suddenly change to ever shorter intervals: from centuries, to decades, to years to even minutes. As changes continue to be observed, the scientific community is forced to consider new or previously ignored processes to explain these observations. The penultimate goal of ice-sheet dynamics is to credibly predict the future of both the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. In this important endeavor, there is no substitute for our ability to observe. Without the extensive data sets provided by remote sensing, numerical models can be neither tested nor improved. The impact of remote sensing on our existing ability to predict the future must be compared to our probable state of knowledge and ability were these data never collected. Among many satellite observed phenomena we would be largely or wholly ignorant of are the recent acceleration of ice throughout much of coastal Greenland; the sudden disintegration of multiple ice shelves along the Antarctic Peninsula; and the dramatic thinning and acceleration of the Amundsen Sea sector of West Antarctica. These observations are driving increased concern about rapidly increasing sea level, a process dominated by ice-sheet dynamics and largely identified, quantified, studied and monitored by satellite sensors.

Using the glacial geomorphology of palaeo-ice streams to understand mechanisms of ice sheet collapse

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stokes, Chris R.; Margold, Martin; Clark, Chris; Tarasov, Lev

2017-04-01

Processes which bring about ice sheet deglaciation are critical to our understanding of glacial-interglacial cycles and ice sheet sensitivity to climate change. The precise mechanisms of deglaciation are also relevant to our understanding of modern-day ice sheet stability and concerns over global sea level rise. Mass loss from ice sheets can be broadly partitioned between melting and a 'dynamic' component whereby rapidly-flowing ice streams/outlet glaciers transfer ice from the interior to the oceans. Surface and basal melting (e.g. of ice shelves) are closely linked to atmospheric and oceanic conditions, but the mechanisms that drive dynamic changes in ice stream discharge are more complex, which generates much larger uncertainties about their future contribution to ice sheet mass loss and sea level rise. A major problem is that observations of modern-day ice streams typically span just a few decades and, at the ice-sheet scale, it is unclear how the entire drainage network of ice streams evolves during deglaciation. A key question is whether ice streams might increase and sustain rates of mass loss over centuries or millennia, beyond those expected for a given ocean-climate forcing. To address this issue, numerous workers have sought to understand ice stream dynamics over longer time-scales using their glacial geomorphology in the palaeo-record. Indeed, our understanding of their geomorphology has grown rapidly in the last three decades, from almost complete ignorance to a detailed knowledge of their geomorphological products. Building on this body of work, this paper uses the glacial geomorphology of 117 ice streams in the North American Laurentide Ice Sheet to reconstruct their activity during its deglaciation ( 22,000 to 7,000 years ago). Ice stream activity was characterised by high variability in both time and space, with ice streams switching on and off in different locations. During deglaciation, we find that their overall number decreased, they occupied a progressively smaller percentage of the ice sheet perimeter, and their total discharge decreased. Underlying geology and topography clearly influenced ice stream activity, but - at the ice sheet scale - their drainage network adjusted and was strongly linked to changes in ice sheet volume. It is unclear whether these findings are directly translatable to modern ice sheets but, contrary to the view that sees ice streams as unstable entities that can draw-down large sectors of an ice sheet and accelerate its demise, we conclude that they reduced in effectiveness during deglaciation of the Laurentide Ice Sheet, with final deglaciation accomplished most effectively by surface melting. This raises some interesting questions about the source and nature of major meltwater pulses and iceberg discharge events in the sea-level record.

Global glacier and ice sheet surface velocities derived from 31 years of Landsat imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gardner, A. S.; Scambos, T. A.; Fahnestock, M. A.

2016-12-01

Glaciers and ice sheets are contributing substantial volumes of water to the world's oceans due to enhanced melt resulting from changes in ocean and atmospheric conditions and respective feedbacks. Improving understanding of the processes leading to accelerated rates of ice loss is necessary for reducing uncertainties sea level projections. One key to doing this is to assemble and analyze long records of glacier change that characterize grounded ice response to changes in driving stress, buttressing, and basal conditions. As part of the NASA funded GO_LIVE project we exploit 31 years of Landsat imagery to construct detailed time histories of global glacier velocities. Early exploration of the dataset reveals the diversity of information to be gleaned: sudden tidewater glacier speedups in the Antarctic Peninsula, rifting of Antarctic ice shelves, high variability in velocities near glacier grounding lines, frequent surge activity in the mountainous regions of Alaska and High Mountain Asia, and the slowdown of land-terminating valley glaciers in Arctic Canada and elsewhere.

Reconstruction of Jakobshavn Isbrae's calving dynamics from 1985 to 2017 and sensitivity to future ocean forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bondzio, J. H.; Morlighem, M.; Seroussi, H. L.

2017-12-01

Oceanic forcing is likely to have triggered the breakup of Jakobshavn Isbræ's floating ice tongue in the late 1990s, which led to ongoing dynamic changes such as widespread flow acceleration and mass loss. Our understanding of the link between ice dynamics, oceanic forcing, and calving is limited, yet crucial for prognostic simulations of Jakobshavn Isbræ. Here, we first reconstruct Jakobshavn's calving dynamics from 1985 to 2017, by relying on the model from Bondzio et al. 2017, but with a freely evolving ice front. We test different calving rate parameterizations implemented in the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) and determine the best law by comparing the modeled retreat to observations. We then identify the controls on calving rate and ice front retreat by varying the submarine melting rate and frontal melt rates as a function of subglacial water discharge and ocean thermal forcing. This sensitivity analysis is an important step toward performing prognostic simulations of JI and provides pathways for future data acquisition.

Quantifying the mass loss of peripheral Greenland glaciers and ice caps (1958-2014).

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noël, Brice; van de Berg, Willem Jan; Machguth, Horst; van den Broeke, Michiel

2016-04-01

Since the 2000s, mass loss from Greenland peripheral glaciers and ice caps (GICs) has accelerated, becoming an important contributor to sea level rise. Under continued warming throughout the 21st century, GICs might yield up to 7.5 to 11 mm sea level rise, with increasing dominance of surface runoff at the expense of ice discharge. However, despite multiple observation campaigns, little remains known about the contribution of GICs to total Greenland mass loss. Furthermore, the relatively coarse resolutions in regional climate models, i.e. 5 km to 20 km, fail to represent the small scale patterns of surface mass balance (SMB) components over these topographically complex regions including also narrow valley glaciers. Here, we present a novel approach to quantify the contribution of GICs to surface melt and runoff, based on an elevation dependent downscaling method. GICs daily SMB components at 1 km resolution are obtained by statistically downscaling the outputs of RACMO2.3 at 11 km resolution to a down-sampled version of the GIMP DEM for the period 1958-2014. This method has recently been successfully validated over the Greenland ice sheet and is now applied to GICs. In this study, we first evaluate the 1 km daily downscaled GICs SMB against a newly available and comprehensive dataset of ablation stake measurements. Then, we investigate present-day trends of meltwater production and SMB for different regions and estimate GICs contribution to total Greenland mass loss. These data are considered valuable for model evaluation and prediction of future sea level rise.

Evolution of Pine Island Glacier subglacial conditions in response to 18 years of ice flow acceleration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brisbourne, A.; Bougamont, M. H.; Christoffersen, P.; Cornford, S. L.; Nias, I.; Vaughan, D.; Smith, A.

2017-12-01

Antarctica's main contribution to sea-level rise originates from the Amundsen Coast, when warm ocean water intrudes onto the continental shelf. As a result, strong melting beneath the ice shelves induces thinning near the grounding line of glaciers, which is ensued by large ice flow speed up diffusing rapidly inland. In particular, ice loss from Pine Island Glacier (PIG) accounts for 20% of the total ice loss in West Antarctica, amounting to 0.12 mm yr-1 of global sea-level rise. Forecasting the future flow of Amundsen Coast glaciers is however hindered by large uncertainties regarding how the thinning initiated at the grounding line is transmitted upstream, and how the grounded flow will ultimately respond. This work aims at elucidating the role of subglacial processes beneath PIG tributaries in modulating the ice flow response to frontal perturbations. We used the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM 2.0) to perform numerical inversions of PIG surface velocity as observed in 1996 and 2014. Over that time period, ice flow acceleration has been widespread over PIG's basin, and the inversions provide insights into the related evolution of the basal thermal and stress conditions. We assume the latter to be directly related to changes in the properties of a soft sediment (till) layer known to exist beneath PIG. We find that the overall bed strength has weakened by 18% in the region of enhanced flow, and that the annual melt production for PIG catchment increased by 25% between 1996 and 2014. Specifically, regions of high melt production are located in the southern tributaries, where the overall stronger bed allows for more frictional melting. However, we find no significant and widespread change in the basal strength of that region, and we infer that the water produced is transported away in a concentrated hydrological system, without much interaction with the till layer. In contrast, we find that relatively less basal melting occurs elsewhere in the catchment, where the bed is overall weaker. Yet, this is where most of the bed weakening occurred between 1996 and 2014. We show that the extent of this weakening can largely be explained by local assimilation of subglacial melt water into the till layer, consistent with a distributed subglacial water system. We conclude on the implication for the future dynamical behaviour of PIG tributaries.

Accelerating ice loss from the fastest Greenland and Antarctic glaciers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, R.; Frederick, E.; Li, J.; Krabill, W.; Manizade, S.; Paden, J.; Sonntag, J.; Swift, R.; Yungel, J.

2011-05-01

Ice discharge from the fastest glaciers draining the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets - Jakobshavn Isbrae (JI) and Pine Island Glacier (PIG)- continues to increase, and is now more than double that needed to balance snowfall in their catchment basins. Velocity increase probably resulted from decreased buttressing from thinning (and, for JI, breakup) of their floating ice tongues, and from reduced basal drag as grounding lines on both glaciers retreat. JI flows directly into the ocean as it becomes afloat, and here creep rates are proportional to the cube of bed depth. Rapid thinning of the PIG ice shelf increases the likelihood of its breakup, and subsequent rapid increase in discharge velocity. Results from a simple model indicate that JI velocities should almost double to >20 km a-1 by 2015, with velocities on PIG increasing to >10 km a-1 after breakup of its ice shelf. These high velocities would probably be sustained over many decades as the glaciers retreat within their long, very deep troughs. Resulting sea-level rise would average about 1.5 mm a-1.

Accelerating Ice Loss from the Fastest Greenland and Antarctic Glaciers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thomas, R.; Frederick, E.; Li, J.; Krabill, W.; Manizade, S.; Paden, J.; Sonntag, J.; Swift, R.; Yungel, J.

2011-01-01

Ice discharge from the fastest glaciers draining the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets . Jakobshavn Isbrae (JI) and Pine Island Glacier (PIG). continues to increase, and is now more than double that needed to balance snowfall in their catchment basins. Velocity increase probably resulted from decreased buttressing from thinning (and, for JI, breakup) of their floating ice tongues, and from reduced basal drag as grounding lines on both glaciers retreat. JI flows directly into the ocean as it becomes afloat, and here creep rates are proportional to the cube of bed depth. Rapid thinning of the PIG ice shelf increases the likelihood of its breakup, and subsequent rapid increase in discharge velocity. Results from a simple model indicate that JI velocities should almost double to >20 km/a by 2015, with velocities on PIG increasing to >10 km/a after breakup of its ice shelf. These high velocities would probably be sustained over many decades as the glaciers retreat within their long, very deep troughs. Resulting sea ]level rise would average about 1.5 mm/a.

Off-Ice Anaerobic Power Does Not Predict On-Ice Repeated Shift Performance in Hockey.

PubMed

Peterson, Ben J; Fitzgerald, John S; Dietz, Calvin C; Ziegler, Kevin S; Baker, Sarah E; Snyder, Eric M

2016-09-01

Peterson, BJ, Fitzgerald, JS, Dietz, CC, Ziegler, KS, Baker, SE, and Snyder, EM. Off-ice anaerobic power does not predict on-ice repeated shift performance in hockey. J Strength Cond Res 30(9): 2375-2381, 2016-Anaerobic power is a significant predictor of acceleration and top speed in team sport athletes. Historically, these findings have been applied to ice hockey although recent research has brought their validity for this sport into question. As ice hockey emphasizes the ability to repeatedly produce power, single bout anaerobic power tests should be examined to determine their ability to predict on-ice performance. We tested whether conventional off-ice anaerobic power tests could predict on-ice acceleration, top speed, and repeated shift performance. Forty-five hockey players, aged 18-24 years, completed anthropometric, off-ice, and on-ice tests. Anthropometric and off-ice testing included height, weight, body composition, vertical jump, and Wingate tests. On-ice testing consisted of acceleration, top speed, and repeated shift fatigue tests. Vertical jump (VJ) (r = -0.42; r = -0.58), Wingate relative peak power (WRPP) (r = -0.32; r = -0.43), and relative mean power (WRMP) (r = -0.34; r = -0.48) were significantly correlated (p ≤ 0.05) to on-ice acceleration and top speed, respectively. Conversely, none of the off-ice tests correlated with on-ice repeated shift performance, as measured by first gate, second gate, or total course fatigue; VJ (r = 0.06; r = 0.13; r = 0.09), WRPP (r = 0.06; r = 0.14; r = 0.10), or WRMP (r = -0.10; r = -0.01; r = -0.01). Although conventional off-ice anaerobic power tests predict single bout on-ice acceleration and top speed, they neither predict the repeated shift ability of the player, nor are good markers for performance in ice hockey.

Geoengineering Marine Ice Sheets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wolovick, M.

2017-12-01

Mass loss from Greenland and Antarctica is highly sensitive to the presence of warm ocean water that drives melting at the grounding line. Rapid melting near the grounding line causes ice shelf thinning, loss of buttressing, flow acceleration, grounding line retreat, and ultimately mass loss and sea-level rise. If the grounding line enters a section of overdeepened bed the ice sheet may even enter a runaway collapse via the marine ice sheet instability. The warm water that triggers this process resides offshore at depth and accesses the grounding line through deep troughs in the continental shelf. In Greenland, warm water transport is further constricted through narrow fjords. Here, I propose blocking warm water transport through these choke points with an artificial sill. Using a simple width- and depth-averaged model of ice stream flow coupled to a buoyant-plume model of ocean melting, I find that grounding line retreat and sea level rise can be delayed or reversed for hundreds of years if warm water is prevented from accessing the grounding line at depth. Blocking of warm water from the sub-ice cavity causes ice shelf thickening, increased buttressing, and grounding line readvance. The increase in buttressing is greatly magnified if the thickened ice shelf regrounds on a bathymetric high or on the artificial sill itself. In some experiments for Thwaites Glacier the grounding line is able to recover from a severely retreated state over 100 km behind its present-day position. Such a dramatic recovery demonstrates that it is possible, at least in principle, to stop and reverse an ongoing marine ice sheet collapse. If the ice shelf regrounds on the artificial sill itself, erosion of the sill beneath the grounded ice could reduce the effectiveness of the intervention. However, experiments including sill erosion suggest that even a very weak sill (1 kPa) could delay a collapse for centuries. The scale of the artificial sills in Greenlandic fjords is comparable to existing large public works, while in Antarctica they are one to two orders of magnitude larger. However, this is still small in comparison to the global disruption that would be caused by a collapse of West Antarctica. Marine-terminating ice streams are high-leverage points in the climate system, where global impacts can be achieved through local intervention.

Sea ice breakup and marine melt of a retreating tidewater outlet glacier in northeast Greenland (81°N).

PubMed

Bendtsen, Jørgen; Mortensen, John; Lennert, Kunuk; K Ehn, Jens; Boone, Wieter; Galindo, Virginie; Hu, Yu-Bin; Dmitrenko, Igor A; Kirillov, Sergei A; Kjeldsen, Kristian K; Kristoffersen, Yngve; G Barber, David; Rysgaard, Søren

2017-07-10

Rising temperatures in the Arctic cause accelerated mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet and reduced sea ice cover. Tidewater outlet glaciers represent direct connections between glaciers and the ocean where melt rates at the ice-ocean interface are influenced by ocean temperature and circulation. However, few measurements exist near outlet glaciers from the northern coast towards the Arctic Ocean that has remained nearly permanently ice covered. Here we present hydrographic measurements along the terminus of a major retreating tidewater outlet glacier from Flade Isblink Ice Cap. We show that the region is characterized by a relatively large change of the seasonal freshwater content, corresponding to ~2 m of freshwater, and that solar heating during the short open water period results in surface layer temperatures above 1 °C. Observations of temperature and salinity supported that the outlet glacier is a floating ice shelf with near-glacial subsurface temperatures at the freezing point. Melting from the surface layer significantly influenced the ice foot morphology of the glacier terminus. Hence, melting of the tidewater outlet glacier was found to be critically dependent on the retreat of sea ice adjacent to the terminus and the duration of open water.

Tibetan Glaciers as Integrators and Sentinels of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, L. G.; Tandong, Y.; Davis, M. E.; Kehrwald, N. M.; Mosley-Thompson, E. S.

2008-12-01

Information from ice cores collected over the last two decades across the Tibetan Plateau demonstrates that this is a climatically diverse and complex region. Records spanning more than 500,000 years have been recovered from the Guliya ice cap in the far northwestern Kunlun Mountains, where the climate is dominated by the westerly flow over the Eurasian land mass. Shorter records (less than 10,000 years) have been recovered from ice fields in the central Himalaya to the south, where a monsoonal climate regime dominates and the annual accumulation is high. On decadal and longer timescales IPCC climate models predict that continued anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions will force air temperature to increase faster at higher elevations. This vertical amplification will be greatest in low latitudes due to upper tropospheric humidity and water vapor feedback. Meteorological records across the Tibetan Plateau indicate that temperatures have risen since the mid-1950s and the rate of warming is greater (0.3°C per decade) at the higher elevation stations. Likewise, the stable isotopic compositions of ice cores across the Plateau show an overall the 20th Century enrichment that is greatest at the highest elevation sites. Glaciers in the central Himalayas, including many around the Tibetan Plateau, are experiencing an accelerating rate of ice loss, due in part to current temperature trends and associated feedbacks. Ice loss in the central Himalayas is evident from ice cores recovered in 2006 from the Naimona'nyi ice field. Unlike previous cores from glaciers around the world, including those drilled across the Tibetan Plateau, the Naimona'nyi cores lack the elevated levels of beta radioactivity from the decay of 36Cl and 3H associated with atmospheric thermonuclear bomb testing in the 1950s and 1960s. This suggests that net mass (ice) loss has exceeded accumulation on this glacier since at least 1950. If the climate conditions that govern the mass balance on Naimona'nyi extend to other glaciers in the region, the implications for future water resources in South Asia could be dire as these glaciers feed the headwaters of the Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra Rivers which sustain the world's most populous region.

The dynamics of climate-induced deglacial ice stream acceleration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robel, A.; Tziperman, E.

2015-12-01

Geological observations indicate that ice streams were a significant contributor to ice flow in the Laurentide Ice Sheet during the Last Glacial Maximum. Conceptual and simple model studies have also argued that the gradual development of ice streams increases the sensitivity of large ice sheets to weak climate forcing. In this study, we use an idealized configuration of the Parallel Ice Sheet Model to explore the role of ice streams in rapid deglaciation. In a growing ice sheet, ice streams develop gradually as the bed warms and the margin expands outward onto the continental shelf. Then, a weak change in equilibrium line altitude commensurate with Milankovitch forcing results in a rapid deglacial response, as ice stream acceleration leads to enhanced calving and surface melting at low elevations. We explain the dynamical mechanism that drives this ice stream acceleration and its broader applicability as a feedback for enhancing ice sheet decay in response to climate forcing. We show how our idealized ice sheet simulations match geomorphological observations of deglacial ice stream variability and previous model-data analyses. We conclude with observations on the potential for interaction between ice streams and other feedback mechanisms within the earth system.

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2012-05-10

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Recent dynamic changes on Fleming Glacier after the disintegration of Wordie Ice Shelf, Antarctic Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Friedl, Peter; Seehaus, Thorsten C.; Wendt, Anja; Braun, Matthias H.; Höppner, Kathrin

2018-04-01

The Antarctic Peninsula is one of the world's regions most affected by climate change. Several ice shelves have retreated, thinned or completely disintegrated during recent decades, leading to acceleration and increased calving of their tributary glaciers. Wordie Ice Shelf, located in Marguerite Bay at the south-western side of the Antarctic Peninsula, completely disintegrated in a series of events between the 1960s and the late 1990s. We investigate the long-term dynamics (1994-2016) of Fleming Glacier after the disintegration of Wordie Ice Shelf by analysing various multi-sensor remote sensing data sets. We present a dense time series of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) surface velocities that reveals a rapid acceleration of Fleming Glacier in 2008 and a phase of further gradual acceleration and upstream propagation of high velocities in 2010-2011.The timing in acceleration correlates with strong upwelling events of warm circumpolar deep water (CDW) into Wordie Bay, most likely leading to increased submarine melt. This, together with continuous dynamic thinning and a deep subglacial trough with a retrograde bed slope close to the terminus probably, has induced unpinning of the glacier tongue in 2008 and gradual grounding line retreat between 2010 and 2011. Our data suggest that the glacier's grounding line had retreated by ˜ 6-9 km between 1996 and 2011, which caused ˜ 56 km2 of the glacier tongue to go afloat. The resulting reduction in buttressing explains a median speedup of ˜ 1.3 m d-1 ( ˜ 27 %) between 2008 and 2011, which we observed along a centre line extending between the grounding line in 1996 and ˜ 16 km upstream. Current median ice thinning rates (2011-2014) along profiles in areas below 1000 m altitude range between ˜ 2.6 to 3.2 m a-1 and are ˜ 70 % higher than between 2004 and 2008. Our study shows that Fleming Glacier is far away from approaching a new equilibrium and that the glacier dynamics are not primarily controlled by the loss of the former ice shelf anymore. Currently, the tongue of Fleming Glacier is grounded in a zone of bedrock elevation between ˜ -400 and -500 m. However, about 3-4 km upstream modelled bedrock topography indicates a retrograde bed which transitions into a deep trough of up to ˜ -1100 m at ˜ 10 km upstream. Hence, this endangers upstream ice masses, which can significantly increase the contribution of Fleming Glacier to sea level rise in the future.

Towards development of an operational snow on sea ice product

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stroeve, J.; Liston, G. E.; Barrett, A. P.; Tschudi, M. A.; Stewart, S.

2017-12-01

Sea ice has been visibly changing over the past couple of decades; most notably the annual minimum extent which has shown a distinct downward, and recently accelerating, trend. September mean sea ice extent was over 7×106 km2 in the 1980's, but has averaged less than 5×106 km2 in the last decade. Should this loss continue, there will be wide-ranging impacts on marine ecosystems, coastal communities, prospects for resource extraction and marine activity, and weather conditions in the Arctic and beyond. While changes in the spatial extent of sea ice have been routinely monitored since the 1970s, less is known about how the thickness of the ice cover has changed. While estimates of ice thickness across the Arctic Ocean have become available over the past 20 years based on data from ERS-1/2, Envisat, ICESat, CryoSat-2 satellites and Operation IceBridge aircraft campaigns, the variety of these different measurement approaches, sensor technologies and spatial coverage present formidable challenges. Key among these is that measurement techniques do not measure ice thickness directly - retrievals also require snow depth and density. Towards that end, a sophisticated snow accumulation model is tested in a Lagrangian framework to map daily snow depths across the Arctic sea ice cover using atmospheric reanalysis data as input. Accuracy of the snow accumulation is assessed through comparison with Operation IceBridge data and ice mass balance buoys (IMBs). Impacts on ice thickness retrievals are further discussed.

Frontal destabilization of Stonebreen, Edgeøya, Svalbard

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strozzi, Tazio; Kääb, Andreas; Schellenberger, Thomas

2017-02-01

In consideration of the strong atmospheric warming that has been observed since the 1990s in polar regions there is a need to quantify mass loss of Arctic ice caps and glaciers and their contribution to sea level rise. In polar regions a large part of glacier ablation is through calving of tidewater glaciers driven by ice velocities and their variations. The Svalbard region is characterized by glaciers with rapid dynamic fluctuations of different types, including irreversible adjustments of calving fronts to a changing mass balance and reversible, surge-type activities. For large areas, however, we do not have much past and current information on glacier dynamic fluctuations. Recently, through frequent monitoring based on repeat optical and synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellite data, a number of zones of velocity increases have been observed at formerly slow-flowing calving fronts on Svalbard. Here we present the dynamic evolution of the southern lobe of Stonebreen on Edgeøya. We observe a slowly steady retreat of the glacier front from 1971 until 2011, followed by a strong increase in ice surface velocity along with a decrease of volume and frontal extension since 2012. The considerable losses in ice thickness could have made the tide-water calving glacier, which is grounded below sea level some 6 km inland from the 2014 front, more sensitive to surface meltwater reaching its bed and/or warm ocean water increasing frontal ablation with subsequent strong multi-annual ice-flow acceleration.

Changes in ice dynamics along the northern Antarctic Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seehaus, T.; Braun, M.; Cook, A.; Marinsek, S.

2016-12-01

The climatic conditions along the Antarctic Peninsula have undergone considerable changes during the last 50 years. Numerous ice shelves along the Antarctic Peninsula retreated, started to break-up or disintegrated. The loss of the buttressing effect caused tributary glaciers to accelerate with increasing ice discharge along the Antarctic Peninsula. The aim is to study the reaction of glaciers at the northern Antarctic Peninsula to the changing climatic conditions and the readjustments of tributary glaciers to ice shelf disintegration, as well as to better quantify the ice mass loss and its temporal changes.We analysed time series of various SAR satellite sensors to detect changes in ice flow speed and surface elevation. Intensity feature tracking techniques were applied on data stacks from different SAR satellites over the last 20 years to infer changes in glacier surface velocities. High resolution bi-static TanDEM-X data was used to derive digital elevation models by differential SAR interferometry. In combination with ASTER and SPOT stereo images, changes in surface elevations were determined. Altimeter data from ICESat, CryoSat-2 and NASA operation IceBridge ATM were used for vertical referencing and quality assessment of the digital elevation models. Along the west coast of the northern Antarctic Peninsula an increase in flow speeds by 40% between 1992 and 2014 was observed, whereas glaciers on the east side (north of former Prince-Gustav Ice Shelf) showed a strong deceleration. In total an ice discharge of 17.93±6.22 Gt/a was estimated for 74 glaciers on the Antarctic Peninsula north of 65°S. Most of the former ice shelf tributaries showed similar reactions to ice shelf disintegration. At the Sjögren-Inlet a total ice mass loss of -37.5±8.2 Gt and a contribution to sea level rise of 20.9±5.2 Gt were found in the period 1993-2014. The average surface lowering rate in the period 2012-2014 amounts to -2.2 m/a. At Dinsmoor-Bombardier-Edgeworth glacier system the results show an increase in surface velocity from 0.9 m/d in 1996 up to 8.8 m/d in 1999 close to the terminus. Subsequently, surface velocities decreased to 1.5 m/d in 2014. The changes in flow speeds are coinciding with changes in front position. The surface elevation changed by at least -130±15 m between 1995 and 2014 and -40.7±3.9 Gt of ice were discharged.

Changes in the Mass Balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet in a Warming Climate During 2003-2009

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zwally, H. Jay; Luthcke, Scott

2010-01-01

Mass changes of the Greenland ice sheet (GIS) derived from ICESat and GRACE data both show that the net mass loss from GIS during 2003-2009 is about 175 Gt/year, which contributes 0.5mm/yr global sea-level rise. The rate of mass loss has increased significantly since the 1990's when the GIS was close to mass balance. Even though the GIS was close to mass balance during the 1990's, it was already showing characteristics of responding to8 warmer climate, specifically thinning at the margins and thickening inland at higher elevations. During 2003-2009, increased ice thinning due to increases in melting and acceleration of outlet glaciers began to strongly exceed the inland thickening from increases in accumulation. Over the entire GIS, the mass loss between the two periods, from increased melting and ice dynamics, increased by about 190 Gt/year while the mass gain, from increased precipitation and accumulation, increased by only about 15Gt/year. These ice changes occurred during a time when the temperature on GIS changed at rate of about 2K/decade. The distribution of elevation and mass changes derived from ICESat have high spatial resolution showing details over outlet glaciers, by drainage systems, and by elevation. However, information on the seasonal cycle of changes from ICESat data is limited, because the ICESat lasers were only operated during two to three campaigns per year of about 35 days duration each. In contrast, the temporal resolution of GRACE data, provided by the continuous data collection, is much better showing details of the seasonal cycle and the inter-annual variability. The differing sensitivity of the ICESat altimetry and the GRACE gravity methods to motion of the underlying bedrock from glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) is used to evaluate the GIA corrections provided by models. The two data types are also combined to make estimates of the partitioning of the mass gains and losses among accumulation, melting, and ice discharge from outlet glaciers.

Iceberg capsize hydrodynamics and the source of glacial earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaluzienski, Lynn; Burton, Justin; Cathles, Mac

2014-03-01

Accelerated warming in the past few decades has led to an increase in dramatic, singular mass loss events from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, such as the catastrophic collapse of ice shelves on the western antarctic peninsula, and the calving and subsequent capsize of cubic-kilometer scale icebergs in Greenland's outlet glaciers. The latter has been identified as the source of long-period seismic events classified as glacial earthquakes, which occur most frequently in Greenland's summer months. The ability to partially monitor polar mass loss through the Global Seismographic Network is quite attractive, yet this goal necessitates an accurate model of a source mechanism for glacial earthquakes. In addition, the detailed relationship between iceberg mass, geometry, and the measured seismic signal is complicated by inherent difficulties in collecting field data from remote, ice-choked fjords. To address this, we use a laboratory scale model to measure aspects of the post-fracture calving process not observable in nature. Our results show that the combination of mechanical contact forces and hydrodynamic pressure forces generated by the capsize of an iceberg adjacent to a glacier's terminus produces a dipolar strain which is reminiscent of a single couple seismic source.

Decreasing cloud cover drives the recent mass loss on the Greenland Ice Sheet.

PubMed

Hofer, Stefan; Tedstone, Andrew J; Fettweis, Xavier; Bamber, Jonathan L

2017-06-01

The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) has been losing mass at an accelerating rate since the mid-1990s. This has been due to both increased ice discharge into the ocean and melting at the surface, with the latter being the dominant contribution. This change in state has been attributed to rising temperatures and a decrease in surface albedo. We show, using satellite data and climate model output, that the abrupt reduction in surface mass balance since about 1995 can be attributed largely to a coincident trend of decreasing summer cloud cover enhancing the melt-albedo feedback. Satellite observations show that, from 1995 to 2009, summer cloud cover decreased by 0.9 ± 0.3% per year. Model output indicates that the GrIS summer melt increases by 27 ± 13 gigatons (Gt) per percent reduction in summer cloud cover, principally because of the impact of increased shortwave radiation over the low albedo ablation zone. The observed reduction in cloud cover is strongly correlated with a state shift in the North Atlantic Oscillation promoting anticyclonic conditions in summer and suggests that the enhanced surface mass loss from the GrIS is driven by synoptic-scale changes in Arctic-wide atmospheric circulation.

Glacier Acceleration and Thinning after Ice Shelf Collapse in the Larsen B Embayment, Antarctica

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Scambos, T. A.; Bohlander, J. A.; Shuman, C. A.; Skvarca, P.

2004-01-01

Ice velocities derived from five Landsat 7 images acquired between January 2000 and February 2003 show a two- to six-fold increase in centerline speed of four glaciers flowing into the now-collapsed section of the Larsen B Ice Shelf. Satellite laser altimetry from ICEsat indicates the surface of Hektoria Glacier lowered by up to 38 +/- 6 m a six-month period beginning one year after the break-up in March 2002. Smaller elevation losses are observed for Crane and Jorum glaciers over a later 5-month period. Two glaciers south of the collapse area, Flask and Leppard, show little change in speed or elevation. Seasonal variations in speed preceding the large post-collapse velocity increases suggest that both summer melt percolation and changes in the stress field due to shelf removal play a major role in glacier dynamics.

Tipping points in the arctic: eyeballing or statistical significance?

PubMed

Carstensen, Jacob; Weydmann, Agata

2012-02-01

Arctic ecosystems have experienced and are projected to experience continued large increases in temperature and declines in sea ice cover. It has been hypothesized that small changes in ecosystem drivers can fundamentally alter ecosystem functioning, and that this might be particularly pronounced for Arctic ecosystems. We present a suite of simple statistical analyses to identify changes in the statistical properties of data, emphasizing that changes in the standard error should be considered in addition to changes in mean properties. The methods are exemplified using sea ice extent, and suggest that the loss rate of sea ice accelerated by factor of ~5 in 1996, as reported in other studies, but increases in random fluctuations, as an early warning signal, were observed already in 1990. We recommend to employ the proposed methods more systematically for analyzing tipping points to document effects of climate change in the Arctic.

Ice-sheet modelling accelerated by graphics cards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brædstrup, Christian Fredborg; Damsgaard, Anders; Egholm, David Lundbek

2014-11-01

Studies of glaciers and ice sheets have increased the demand for high performance numerical ice flow models over the past decades. When exploring the highly non-linear dynamics of fast flowing glaciers and ice streams, or when coupling multiple flow processes for ice, water, and sediment, researchers are often forced to use super-computing clusters. As an alternative to conventional high-performance computing hardware, the Graphical Processing Unit (GPU) is capable of massively parallel computing while retaining a compact design and low cost. In this study, we present a strategy for accelerating a higher-order ice flow model using a GPU. By applying the newest GPU hardware, we achieve up to 180× speedup compared to a similar but serial CPU implementation. Our results suggest that GPU acceleration is a competitive option for ice-flow modelling when compared to CPU-optimised algorithms parallelised by the OpenMP or Message Passing Interface (MPI) protocols.

Changing pattern of ice flow and mass balance for glaciers discharging into the Larsen A and B embayments, Antarctic Peninsula, 2011 to 2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rott, Helmut; Abdel Jaber, Wael; Wuite, Jan; Scheiblauer, Stefan; Floricioiu, Dana; Melchior van Wessem, Jan; Nagler, Thomas; Miranda, Nuno; van den Broeke, Michiel R.

2018-04-01

We analysed volume change and mass balance of outlet glaciers on the northern Antarctic Peninsula over the periods 2011 to 2013 and 2013 to 2016, using high-resolution topographic data from the bistatic interferometric radar satellite mission TanDEM-X. Complementary to the geodetic method that applies DEM differencing, we computed the net mass balance of the main outlet glaciers using the mass budget method, accounting for the difference between the surface mass balance (SMB) and the discharge of ice into an ocean or ice shelf. The SMB values are based on output of the regional climate model RACMO version 2.3p2. To study glacier flow and retrieve ice discharge we generated time series of ice velocity from data from different satellite radar sensors, with radar images of the satellites TerraSAR-X and TanDEM-X as the main source. The study area comprises tributaries to the Larsen A, Larsen Inlet and Prince Gustav Channel embayments (region A), the glaciers calving into the Larsen B embayment (region B) and the glaciers draining into the remnant part of the Larsen B ice shelf in Scar Inlet (region C). The glaciers of region A, where the buttressing ice shelf disintegrated in 1995, and of region B (ice shelf break-up in 2002) show continuing losses in ice mass, with significant reduction of losses after 2013. The mass balance numbers for the grounded glacier area of region A are -3.98 ± 0.33 Gt a-1 from 2011 to 2013 and -2.38 ± 0.18 Gt a-1 from 2013 to 2016. The corresponding numbers for region B are -5.75 ± 0.45 and -2.32 ± 0.25 Gt a-1. The mass balance in region C during the two periods was slightly negative, at -0.54 ± 0.38 Gt a-1 and -0.58 ± 0.25 Gt a-1. The main share in the overall mass losses of the region was contributed by two glaciers: Drygalski Glacier contributing 61 % to the mass deficit of region A, and Hektoria and Green glaciers accounting for 67 % to the mass deficit of region B. Hektoria and Green glaciers accelerated significantly in 2010-2011, triggering elevation losses up to 19.5 m a-1 on the lower terminus during the period 2011 to 2013 and resulting in a mass balance of -3.88 Gt a-1. Slowdown of calving velocities and reduced calving fluxes in 2013 to 2016 coincided with years in which ice mélange and sea ice cover persisted in proglacial fjords and bays during summer.

Enhanced wintertime greenhouse effect reinforcing Arctic amplification and initial sea-ice melting.

PubMed

Cao, Yunfeng; Liang, Shunlin; Chen, Xiaona; He, Tao; Wang, Dongdong; Cheng, Xiao

2017-08-16

The speeds of both Arctic surface warming and sea-ice shrinking have accelerated over recent decades. However, the causes of this unprecedented phenomenon remain unclear and are subjects of considerable debate. In this study, we report strong observational evidence, for the first time from long-term (1984-2014) spatially complete satellite records, that increased cloudiness and atmospheric water vapor in winter and spring have caused an extraordinary downward longwave radiative flux to the ice surface, which may then amplify the Arctic wintertime ice-surface warming. In addition, we also provide observed evidence that it is quite likely the enhancement of the wintertime greenhouse effect caused by water vapor and cloudiness has advanced the time of onset of ice melting in mid-May through inhibiting sea-ice refreezing in the winter and accelerating the pre-melting process in the spring, and in turn triggered the positive sea-ice albedo feedback process and accelerated the sea ice melting in the summer.

The possibility of a tipping point in the Arctic sea ice cover, and associated early-warning signals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jastamin Steene, Rebekka

2017-04-01

As the Arctic sea ice has become one of the primer indicators of global climate change, with a seemingly accelerated loss in both ice extent and volume the latest decades, the existence of a tipping point related to the Arctic sea ice cover has been widely debated. Several observed and potential abrupt transitions in the climate system may be interpreted as bifurcations in randomly driven dynamical systems. This means that a system approaching a bifurcation point shifts from one stable state to another, and we say that the system is subject to a critical transition. As the equilibrium states become unstable in the vicinity of a bifurcation point the characteristic relaxation times increases, and the system is said to experience a "critical slowing down". This makes it plausible to observe so called early-warning signals (EWS) when approaching a critical transition. In the Arctic non-linear mechanisms like the temperature response of the ice-albedo feedback can potentially cause a sudden shift to an ice-free Arctic Ocean. Using bifurcation theory and potential analyses we examine time series of observational data of the Arctic sea ice, investigating the possibility of multiple states in the behavior of the ice cover. We further debate whether a shift between states is irreversible, and whether it can be preluded by early-warning signals.

Greenland ice sheet beyond 2100: Simulating its evolution and influence using the coupled climate-ice sheet model EC-Earth - PISM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, S.; Christensen, J. H.; Madsen, M. S.; Ringgaard, I. M.; Petersen, R. A.; Langen, P. P.

2017-12-01

Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) is observed undergoing a rapid change in the recent decades, with an increasing area of surface melting and ablation and a speeding mass loss. Predicting the GrIS changes and their climate consequences relies on the understanding of the interaction of the GrIS with the climate system on both global and local scales, and requires climate model systems incorporating with an explicit and physically consistent ice sheet module. In this work we study the GrIS evolution and its interaction with the climate system using a fully coupled global climate model with a dynamical ice sheet model for the GrIS. The coupled model system, EC-EARTH - PISM, consisting of the atmosphere-ocean-sea ice model system EC-EARTH, and the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM), has been employed for a 1400-year simulation forced by CMIP5 historical forcing from 1850 to 2005 and continued along an extended RCP8.5 scenario with the forcing peaking at 2200 and stabilized hereafter. The simulation reveals that, following the anthropogenic forcing increase, the global mean surface temperature rapidly rises about 10 °C in the 21st and 22nd century. After the forcing stops increasing after 2200, the temperature change slows down and eventually stabilizes at about 12.5 °C above the preindustrial level. In response to the climate warming, the GrIS starts losing mass slowly in the 21st century, but the ice retreat accelerates substantially after 2100 and ice mass loss continues hereafter at a constant rate of approximately 0.5 m sea level rise equivalence per 100 years, even as the warming rate gradually levels off. Ultimately the volume and extent of GrIS reduce to less than half of its preindustrial value. To understand the interaction of GrIS with the climate system, the characteristics of atmospheric and oceanic circulation in the warm climate are analyzed. The circulation patterns associated with the negative surface mass balance that leads to GrIS retreat are investigated. The impact of the simulated surface warming on the ice flow and ice dynamics is explored.

Flow instabilities of Alaskan glaciers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turrin, James Bradley

Over 300 of the largest glaciers in southern Alaska have been identified as either surge-type or pulse-type, making glaciers with flow instabilities the norm among large glaciers in that region. Consequently, the bulk of mass loss due to climate change will come from these unstable glaciers in the future, yet their response to future climate warming is unknown because their dynamics are still poorly understood. To help broaden our understanding of unstable glacier flow, the decadal-scale ice dynamics of 1 surging and 9 pulsing glaciers are investigated. Bering Glacier had a kinematic wave moving down its ablation zone at 4.4 +/- 2.0 km/yr from 2002 to 2009, which then accelerated to 13.9 +/- 2.0 km/yr as it traversed the piedmont lobe. The wave first appeared in 2001 near the confluence with Bagley Ice Valley and it took 10 years to travel ~64 km. A surge was triggered in 2008 after the wave activated an ice reservoir in the midablation zone, and it climaxed in 2011 while the terminus advanced several km into Vitus Lake. Ruth Glacier pulsed five times between 1973 and 2012, with peak velocities in 1981, 1989, 1997, 2003, and 2010; approximately every 7 years. A typical pulse increased ice velocity 300%, from roughly 40 m/yr to 160 m/yr in the midablation zone, and involved acceleration and deceleration of the ice en masse; no kinematic wave was evident. The pulses are theorized to be due to deformation of a subglacial till causing enhanced basal motion. Eight additional pulsing glaciers are identified based on the spatiotemporal pattern of their velocity fields. These glaciers pulsed where they were either constricted laterally or joined by a tributary, and their surface slopes are 1-2°. These traits are consistent with an overdeepening. This observation leads to a theory of ice motion in overdeepenings that explains the cyclical behavior of pulsing glaciers. It is based on the concept of glaciohydraulic supercooling, and includes sediment transport and erosion along an adverse slope, ice thickening, and ablation of the ice surface such that the ratio of the angle of the adverse slope to ice surface slope oscillates around the supercooling threshold.

Modelling the feedbacks between mass balance, ice flow and debris transport to predict the response to climate change of debris-covered glaciers in the Himalaya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rowan, Ann V.; Egholm, David L.; Quincey, Duncan J.; Glasser, Neil F.

2015-11-01

Many Himalayan glaciers are characterised in their lower reaches by a rock debris layer. This debris insulates the glacier surface from atmospheric warming and complicates the response to climate change compared to glaciers with clean-ice surfaces. Debris-covered glaciers can persist well below the altitude that would be sustainable for clean-ice glaciers, resulting in much longer timescales of mass loss and meltwater production. The properties and evolution of supraglacial debris present a considerable challenge to understanding future glacier change. Existing approaches to predicting variations in glacier volume and meltwater production rely on numerical models that represent the processes governing glaciers with clean-ice surfaces, and yield conflicting results. We developed a numerical model that couples the flow of ice and debris and includes important feedbacks between debris accumulation and glacier mass balance. To investigate the impact of debris transport on the response of a glacier to recent and future climate change, we applied this model to a large debris-covered Himalayan glacier-Khumbu Glacier in Nepal. Our results demonstrate that supraglacial debris prolongs the response of the glacier to warming and causes lowering of the glacier surface in situ, concealing the magnitude of mass loss when compared with estimates based on glacierised area. Since the Little Ice Age, Khumbu Glacier has lost 34% of its volume while its area has reduced by only 6%. We predict a decrease in glacier volume of 8-10% by AD2100, accompanied by dynamic and physical detachment of the debris-covered tongue from the active glacier within the next 150 yr. This detachment will accelerate rates of glacier decay, and similar changes are likely for other debris-covered glaciers in the Himalaya.

Comparative Study of Three Data Assimilation Methods for Ice Sheet Model Initialisation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mosbeux, Cyrille; Gillet-Chaulet, Fabien; Gagliardini, Olivier

2015-04-01

The current global warming has direct consequences on ice-sheet mass loss contributing to sea level rise. This loss is generally driven by an acceleration of some coastal outlet glaciers and reproducing these mechanisms is one of the major issues in ice-sheet and ice flow modelling. The construction of an initial state, as close as possible to current observations, is required as a prerequisite before producing any reliable projection of the evolution of ice-sheets. For this step, inverse methods are often used to infer badly known or unknown parameters. For instance, the adjoint inverse method has been implemented and applied with success by different authors in different ice flow models in order to infer the basal drag [ Schafer et al., 2012; Gillet-chauletet al., 2012; Morlighem et al., 2010]. Others data fields, such as ice surface and bedrock topography, are easily measurable with more or less uncertainty but only locally along tracks and interpolated on finer model grid. All these approximations lead to errors on the data elevation model and give rise to an ill-posed problem inducing non-physical anomalies in flux divergence [Seroussi et al, 2011]. A solution to dissipate these divergences of flux is to conduct a surface relaxation step at the expense of the accuracy of the modelled surface [Gillet-Chaulet et al., 2012]. Other solutions, based on the inversion of ice thickness and basal drag were proposed [Perego et al., 2014; Pralong & Gudmundsson, 2011]. In this study, we create a twin experiment to compare three different assimilation algorithms based on inverse methods and nudging to constrain the bedrock friction and the bedrock elevation: (i) cyclic inversion of friction parameter and bedrock topography using adjoint method, (ii) cycles coupling inversion of friction parameter using adjoint method and nudging of bedrock topography, (iii) one step inversion of both parameters with adjoint method. The three methods show a clear improvement in parameters knowledge leading to a significant reduction of flux divergence of the model before forecasting.

Examining Differences in Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nghiem, S. V.; Rigor, I. G.; Clemente-Colon, P.; Neumann, G.; Li, P.

2015-12-01

The paradox of the rapid reduction of Arctic sea ice versus the stability (or slight increase) of Antarctic sea ice remains a challenge in the cryospheric science research community. Here we start by reviewing a number of explanations that have been suggested by different researchers and authors. One suggestion is that stratospheric ozone depletion may affect atmospheric circulation and wind patterns such as the Southern Annular Mode, and thereby sustaining the Antarctic sea ice cover. The reduction of salinity and density in the near-surface layer may weaken the convective mixing of cold and warmer waters, and thus maintaining regions of no warming around the Antarctic. A decrease in sea ice growth may reduce salt rejection and upper-ocean density to enhance thermohalocline stratification, and thus supporting Antarctic sea ice production. Melt water from Antarctic ice shelves collects in a cool and fresh surface layer to shield the surface ocean from the warmer deeper waters, and thus leading to an expansion of Antarctic sea ice. Also, wind effects may positively contribute to Antarctic sea ice growth. Moreover, Antarctica lacks of additional heat sources such as warm river discharge to melt sea ice as opposed to the case in the Arctic. Despite of these suggested explanations, factors that can consistently and persistently maintains the stability of sea ice still need to be identified for the Antarctic, which are opposed to factors that help accelerate sea ice loss in the Arctic. In this respect, using decadal observations from multiple satellite datasets, we examine differences in sea ice properties and distributions, together with dynamic and thermodynamic processes and interactions with land, ocean, and atmosphere, causing differences in Arctic and Antarctic sea ice change to contribute to resolving the Arctic-Antarctic sea ice paradox.

The sensitivity of the Greenland Ice Sheet to glacial-interglacial oceanic forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tabone, Ilaria; Blasco, Javier; Robinson, Alexander; Alvarez-Solas, Jorge; Montoya, Marisa

2018-04-01

Observations suggest that during the last decades the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) has experienced a gradually accelerating mass loss, in part due to the observed speed-up of several of Greenland's marine-terminating glaciers. Recent studies directly attribute this to warming North Atlantic temperatures, which have triggered melting of the outlet glaciers of the GrIS, grounding-line retreat and enhanced ice discharge into the ocean, contributing to an acceleration of sea-level rise. Reconstructions suggest that the influence of the ocean has been of primary importance in the past as well. This was the case not only in interglacial periods, when warmer climates led to a rapid retreat of the GrIS to land above sea level, but also in glacial periods, when the GrIS expanded as far as the continental shelf break and was thus more directly exposed to oceanic changes. However, the GrIS response to palaeo-oceanic variations has yet to be investigated in detail from a mechanistic modelling perspective. In this work, the evolution of the GrIS over the past two glacial cycles is studied using a three-dimensional hybrid ice-sheet-shelf model. We assess the effect of the variation of oceanic temperatures on the GrIS evolution on glacial-interglacial timescales through changes in submarine melting. The results show a very high sensitivity of the GrIS to changing oceanic conditions. Oceanic forcing is found to be a primary driver of GrIS expansion in glacial times and of retreat in interglacial periods. If switched off, palaeo-atmospheric variations alone are not able to yield a reliable glacial configuration of the GrIS. This work therefore suggests that considering the ocean as an active forcing should become standard practice in palaeo-ice-sheet modelling.

Seismic evidence for complex sedimentary control of Greenland Ice Sheet flow

PubMed Central

Kulessa, Bernd; Hubbard, Alun L.; Booth, Adam D.; Bougamont, Marion; Dow, Christine F.; Doyle, Samuel H.; Christoffersen, Poul; Lindbäck, Katrin; Pettersson, Rickard; Fitzpatrick, Andrew A. W.; Jones, Glenn A.

2017-01-01

The land-terminating margin of the Greenland Ice Sheet has slowed down in recent decades, although the causes and implications for future ice flow are unclear. Explained originally by a self-regulating mechanism where basal slip reduces as drainage evolves from low to high efficiency, recent numerical modeling invokes a sedimentary control of ice sheet flow as an alternative hypothesis. Although both hypotheses can explain the recent slowdown, their respective forecasts of a long-term deceleration versus an acceleration of ice flow are contradictory. We present amplitude-versus-angle seismic data as the first observational test of the alternative hypothesis. We document transient modifications of basal sediment strengths by rapid subglacial drainages of supraglacial lakes, the primary current control on summer ice sheet flow according to our numerical model. Our observations agree with simulations of initial postdrainage sediment weakening and ice flow accelerations, and subsequent sediment restrengthening and ice flow decelerations, and thus confirm the alternative hypothesis. Although simulated melt season acceleration of ice flow due to weakening of subglacial sediments does not currently outweigh winter slowdown forced by self-regulation, they could dominate over the longer term. Subglacial sediments beneath the Greenland Ice Sheet must therefore be mapped and characterized, and a sedimentary control of ice flow must be evaluated against competing self-regulation mechanisms. PMID:28835915

Seismic evidence for complex sedimentary control of Greenland Ice Sheet flow.

PubMed

Kulessa, Bernd; Hubbard, Alun L; Booth, Adam D; Bougamont, Marion; Dow, Christine F; Doyle, Samuel H; Christoffersen, Poul; Lindbäck, Katrin; Pettersson, Rickard; Fitzpatrick, Andrew A W; Jones, Glenn A

2017-08-01

The land-terminating margin of the Greenland Ice Sheet has slowed down in recent decades, although the causes and implications for future ice flow are unclear. Explained originally by a self-regulating mechanism where basal slip reduces as drainage evolves from low to high efficiency, recent numerical modeling invokes a sedimentary control of ice sheet flow as an alternative hypothesis. Although both hypotheses can explain the recent slowdown, their respective forecasts of a long-term deceleration versus an acceleration of ice flow are contradictory. We present amplitude-versus-angle seismic data as the first observational test of the alternative hypothesis. We document transient modifications of basal sediment strengths by rapid subglacial drainages of supraglacial lakes, the primary current control on summer ice sheet flow according to our numerical model. Our observations agree with simulations of initial postdrainage sediment weakening and ice flow accelerations, and subsequent sediment restrengthening and ice flow decelerations, and thus confirm the alternative hypothesis. Although simulated melt season acceleration of ice flow due to weakening of subglacial sediments does not currently outweigh winter slowdown forced by self-regulation, they could dominate over the longer term. Subglacial sediments beneath the Greenland Ice Sheet must therefore be mapped and characterized, and a sedimentary control of ice flow must be evaluated against competing self-regulation mechanisms.

A Mathematical Model of Melt Lake Development on an Ice Shelf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buzzard, S. C.; Feltham, D. L.; Flocco, D.

2018-02-01

The accumulation of surface meltwater on ice shelves can lead to the formation of melt lakes. Melt lakes have been implicated in ice shelf collapse; Antarctica's Larsen B Ice Shelf was observed to have a large amount of surface melt lakes present preceding its collapse in 2002. Such collapse can affect ocean circulation and temperature, cause habitat loss and contribute to sea level rise through the acceleration of tributary glaciers. We present a mathematical model of a surface melt lake on an idealized ice shelf. The model incorporates a calculation of the ice shelf surface energy balance, heat transfer through the firn, the production and percolation of meltwater into the firn, the formation of ice lenses, and the development and refreezing of surface melt lakes. The model is applied to the Larsen C Ice Shelf, where melt lakes have been observed. This region has warmed several times the global average over the last century and the Larsen C firn layer could become saturated with meltwater by the end of the century. When forced with weather station data, our model produces surface melting, meltwater accumulation, and melt lake development consistent with observations. We examine the sensitivity of lake formation to uncertain parameters and provide evidence of the importance of processes such as lateral meltwater transport. We conclude that melt lakes impact surface melt and firn density and warrant inclusion in dynamic-thermodynamic models of ice shelf evolution within climate models, of which our model could form the basis for the thermodynamic component.

Effect of local cooling on excitation-contraction coupling in myasthenic muscle: Another mechanism of ice-pack test in myasthenia gravis.

PubMed

Yamamoto, Daisuke; Imai, Tomihiro; Tsuda, Emiko; Hozuki, Takayoshi; Yamauchi, Rika; Hisahara, Shin; Kawamata, Jun; Shimohama, Shun

2017-11-01

The ice-pack test is a convenient diagnostic testing procedure for myasthenia gravis (MG). We investigated the underlying mechanism of the ice-pack test performed on bilateral masseters. We performed trigeminal repetitive nerve stimulation (RNS), excitation-contraction (E-C) coupling assessment (Imai's method) and bite force measurement before and after cooling of the masseters in MG patients and normal controls. After placing the ice-pack on the masseters for 3min, serial recordings of the three tests were performed at various time intervals during 10min after cooling. The bite force increased significantly after cooling in ice-pack-positive MG patients. The acceleration and acceleration ratio (acceleration at a given time to baseline acceleration) of jaw movement increased significantly after cooling of the masseters in ice-pack-positive MG patients compared to ice-pack-negative patients and normal controls. The prolonged effect of cooling continued until the end of recording even though decremental response to RNS had returned to baseline value. Cooling of myasthenic muscle may induce two effects. One is relatively short effect on electrical synaptic transmission at the endplate, and another is prolonged effect on E-C coupling in the muscle. The ice-pack test induces a prolonged effect of ameliorating impaired E-C coupling in MG. Copyright © 2017 International Federation of Clinical Neurophysiology. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Long-term monitoring of glacier dynamics of Fleming Glacier after the disintegration of Wordie Ice Shelf, Antarctic Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Friedl, Peter; Seehaus, Thorsten; Wendt, Anja; Braun, Matthias

2017-04-01

The Antarctic Peninsula is one of the world`s most affected regions by Climate Change. Dense and long time series of remote sensing data enable detailed studies of the rapid glaciological changes in this area. We present results of a study on Fleming Glacier, which was the major tributary glacier of former Wordie Ice Shelf, located at the south-western side of the Antarctic Peninsula. Since the ice shelf disintegrated in a series of events starting in the 1970s, only disconnected tidewater glaciers have remained today. As a reaction to the loss of the buttressing force of the ice shelf, Fleming Glacier accelerated and dynamically thinned. However, all previous studies conducted at Wordie Bay covered only relatively short investigation periods and ended in 2008 the latest. Hence it was not well known how long the process of adaption to the changing boundary conditions exactly lasts and how it is characterized in detail. We provide long time series (1994 - 2016) of glaciological parameters (i.e. ice extent, velocity, grounding line position, ice elevation) for Fleming Glacier obtained from multi-mission remote sensing data. For this purpose large datasets of previously active (e.g. ERS, Envisat, ALOS PALSAR, Radarsat-1) as well as currently recording SAR sensors (e.g. Sentinel-1, TerraSAR-X, TanDEM-X) were processed and combined with data from other sources (e.g. optical images, laser altimeter and ice thickness data). The high temporal resolution of our dataset enables us to present a detailed history of 22 years of glacial dynamics at Fleming Glacier after the disintegration of Wordie Ice Shelf. We found strong evidence for a rapid grounding line retreat of up to 13 km between 2008 and 2011, which led to a further amplification of dynamic ice thinning. Today Fleming Glacier seems to be far away from approaching a new equilibrium. Our data show that the current glacier dynamics of Fleming Glacier are not primarily controlled by the loss of the ice shelf anymore, but by other sources of external forcing, such as oceanic warming.

Trends in Arctic Sea Ice Leads Detection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ackerman, S. A.; Hoffman, J.; Liu, Y.; Key, J. R.

2016-12-01

Sea ice leads (fractures) play a critical role in the exchange of mass and energy between the ocean and atmosphere in the polar regions, particularly in the Arctic. Leads result in warming water and accelerated melting because leads absorb more solar energy than the surrounding ice. In the autumn, winter, and spring leads impact the local atmospheric structure and cloud properties because of the large flux of heat and moisture into the atmosphere. Given the rapid thinning and loss of Arctic sea ice over the last few decades, changes in the distribution of leads can be expected in response. Leads are largely wind driven, so their distributions will also be affected by the changes in atmospheric circulation that have occurred. From a climate perspective, identifying trends in lead characteristics (width, orientation, and spatial distribution) will advance our understanding of both thermodynamic and mechanical processes. This study presents the spatial and temporal distributions of Arctic sea ice leads since 2002 using a new method to detect and characterize sea ice leads with optical (visible, infrared) satellite data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). Using reflective and emissive channels, ice concentration is derived in cloud-free regions and used to create a mask of potential leads. An algorithm then uses a combination of image processing techniques to identify and characterizes leads. The results show interannual variability of leads positioning as well as parameters such as area, length, orientation and width.

Decreasing cloud cover drives the recent mass loss on the Greenland Ice Sheet

PubMed Central

Hofer, Stefan; Tedstone, Andrew J.; Fettweis, Xavier; Bamber, Jonathan L.

2017-01-01

The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) has been losing mass at an accelerating rate since the mid-1990s. This has been due to both increased ice discharge into the ocean and melting at the surface, with the latter being the dominant contribution. This change in state has been attributed to rising temperatures and a decrease in surface albedo. We show, using satellite data and climate model output, that the abrupt reduction in surface mass balance since about 1995 can be attributed largely to a coincident trend of decreasing summer cloud cover enhancing the melt-albedo feedback. Satellite observations show that, from 1995 to 2009, summer cloud cover decreased by 0.9 ± 0.3% per year. Model output indicates that the GrIS summer melt increases by 27 ± 13 gigatons (Gt) per percent reduction in summer cloud cover, principally because of the impact of increased shortwave radiation over the low albedo ablation zone. The observed reduction in cloud cover is strongly correlated with a state shift in the North Atlantic Oscillation promoting anticyclonic conditions in summer and suggests that the enhanced surface mass loss from the GrIS is driven by synoptic-scale changes in Arctic-wide atmospheric circulation. PMID:28782014

Oceanic Transport of Surface Meltwater from the Southern Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Luo, Hao; Castelao, Renato M.; Rennermalm, Asa K.; Tedesco, Marco; Bracco, Annalisa; Yager, Patricia L.; Mote, Thomas L.

2016-01-01

The Greenland ice sheet has undergone accelerating mass losses during recent decades. Freshwater runoff from ice melt can influence fjord circulation and dynamic1 and the delivery of bioavailable micronutrients to the ocean. It can also have climate implications, because stratification in the adjacent Labrador Sea may influence deep convection and the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Yet, the fate of the meltwater in the ocean remains unclear. Here, we use a high-resolution ocean model to show that only 1-15% of the surface meltwater runoff originating from southwest Greenland is transported westwards. In contrast, up to 50-60% of the meltwater runoff originating from southeast Greenland is transported westwards into the northern Labrador Sea, leading to significant salinity and stratification anomalies far from the coast. Doubling meltwater runoff, as predicted in future climate scenarios, results in a more-than-double increase in anomalies offshore that persists further into the winter. Interannual variability in offshore export of meltwater is tightly related to variability in wind forcing. The new insight that meltwaters originating from the west and east coasts have different fates indicates that future changes in mass loss rates and surface runoff will probably impact the ocean differently, depending on their Greenland origins.

The future of ice sheets and sea ice: between reversible retreat and unstoppable loss.

PubMed

Notz, Dirk

2009-12-08

We discuss the existence of cryospheric "tipping points" in the Earth's climate system. Such critical thresholds have been suggested to exist for the disappearance of Arctic sea ice and the retreat of ice sheets: Once these ice masses have shrunk below an anticipated critical extent, the ice-albedo feedback might lead to the irreversible and unstoppable loss of the remaining ice. We here give an overview of our current understanding of such threshold behavior. By using conceptual arguments, we review the recent findings that such a tipping point probably does not exist for the loss of Arctic summer sea ice. Hence, in a cooler climate, sea ice could recover rapidly from the loss it has experienced in recent years. In addition, we discuss why this recent rapid retreat of Arctic summer sea ice might largely be a consequence of a slow shift in ice-thickness distribution, which will lead to strongly increased year-to-year variability of the Arctic summer sea-ice extent. This variability will render seasonal forecasts of the Arctic summer sea-ice extent increasingly difficult. We also discuss why, in contrast to Arctic summer sea ice, a tipping point is more likely to exist for the loss of the Greenland ice sheet and the West Antarctic ice sheet.

Rapid increase in atmospheric iodine levels in the North Atlantic since the mid-20th century.

PubMed

Cuevas, Carlos A; Maffezzoli, Niccolò; Corella, Juan Pablo; Spolaor, Andrea; Vallelonga, Paul; Kjær, Helle A; Simonsen, Marius; Winstrup, Mai; Vinther, Bo; Horvat, Christopher; Fernandez, Rafael P; Kinnison, Douglas; Lamarque, Jean-François; Barbante, Carlo; Saiz-Lopez, Alfonso

2018-04-13

Atmospheric iodine causes tropospheric ozone depletion and aerosol formation, both of which have significant climate impacts, and is an essential dietary element for humans. However, the evolution of atmospheric iodine levels at decadal and centennial scales is unknown. Here, we report iodine concentrations in the RECAP ice-core (coastal East Greenland) to investigate how atmospheric iodine levels in the North Atlantic have evolved over the past 260 years (1750-2011), this being the longest record of atmospheric iodine in the Northern Hemisphere. The levels of iodine tripled from 1950 to 2010. Our results suggest that this increase is driven by anthropogenic ozone pollution and enhanced sub-ice phytoplankton production associated with the recent thinning of Arctic sea ice. Increasing atmospheric iodine has accelerated ozone loss and has considerably enhanced iodine transport and deposition to the Northern Hemisphere continents. Future climate and anthropogenic forcing may continue to amplify oceanic iodine emissions with potentially significant health and environmental impacts at global scale.

Observational Evidence for Enhanced Greenhouse Effect Reinforcing Wintertime Arctic Amplification and Sea Ice Melting Onset

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Y.; Liang, S.

2017-12-01

Despite an apparent hiatus in global warming, the Arctic climate continues to experience unprecedented changes. Summer sea ice is retreating at an accelerated rate, and surface temperatures in this region are rising at a rate double that of the global average, a phenomenon known as Arctic amplification. Although a lot of efforts have been made, the causes this unprecedented phenomenon remain unclear and are subjects of considerable debate. In this study, we report strong observational evidence, for the first time from long-term (1984-2014) spatially complete satellite records, that increased cloudiness and atmospheric water vapor in winter and spring have caused an extraordinary downward longwave radiative flux to the ice surface, which may then amplify the Arctic wintertime ice-surface warming. In addition, we also provide observed evidence that it is quite likely the enhancement of the wintertime greenhouse effect caused by water vapor and cloudiness has advanced the time of onset of ice melting in mid-May through inhibiting sea-ice refreezing in the winter and accelerating the pre-melting process in the spring, and in turn triggered the positive sea-ice albedo feedback process and accelerated the sea ice melting in the summer.

The future of ice sheets and sea ice: Between reversible retreat and unstoppable loss

PubMed Central

Notz, Dirk

2009-01-01

We discuss the existence of cryospheric “tipping points” in the Earth's climate system. Such critical thresholds have been suggested to exist for the disappearance of Arctic sea ice and the retreat of ice sheets: Once these ice masses have shrunk below an anticipated critical extent, the ice–albedo feedback might lead to the irreversible and unstoppable loss of the remaining ice. We here give an overview of our current understanding of such threshold behavior. By using conceptual arguments, we review the recent findings that such a tipping point probably does not exist for the loss of Arctic summer sea ice. Hence, in a cooler climate, sea ice could recover rapidly from the loss it has experienced in recent years. In addition, we discuss why this recent rapid retreat of Arctic summer sea ice might largely be a consequence of a slow shift in ice-thickness distribution, which will lead to strongly increased year-to-year variability of the Arctic summer sea-ice extent. This variability will render seasonal forecasts of the Arctic summer sea-ice extent increasingly difficult. We also discuss why, in contrast to Arctic summer sea ice, a tipping point is more likely to exist for the loss of the Greenland ice sheet and the West Antarctic ice sheet. PMID:19884496

Basin-Wide Mass Balance of Jakobshavn Isbræ (West Greenland) during 1880-2100

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muresan, I. S.; Khan, S. A.; Aschwanden, A.; Langen, P. L.; Khroulev, C.; Box, J. E.; Kjaer, K. H.

2015-12-01

Greenland's main outlet glaciers have more than doubled their contribution to global sea-level rise over the past decade through acceleration of ice discharge. Jakobshavn Isbræ (JI) in west Greenland is the largest outlet glacier in terms of drainage area.Here we use a 3-D modeling approach to study the mechanisms controlling dynamic changes at the terminus of JI over a period of 220 years. Over 100 simulations are performed with different sets of parameters where the calving fronts and the grounding lines are free to evolve in time under atmospheric and oceanic forcing. We find that the thinning and the retreat that starts at the calving front and then propagates upstream is mostly controlled by a loss of resistive stresses at the terminus through glacier dynamics induced calving rather than by changes in oceanic temperatures. Three major accelerations are identified in 1928, 1998 and in the summer of 2003. The acceleration which started in 1928 slowly faded by 1948, while the accelerations in 1998 and 2003 sustain the high velocities observed at JI in the last decade. Further, we find that under atmospheric RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 forcing (no RCP ocean forcing included), an increase in ocean temperatures of just 0.7 °C (relative to 1880-2012) is enough to trigger a collapse of the JI's southern tributary by 2050 which further destabilizes JI and unleashes a major glacial collapse of ~25 km. JI's contribution to SLR is found to be ~2.8 mm (~1014 Gt) for the period 1880 to 2014, from which the contribution between 1997 to 2014 represents 27 %. By the end of the century contributions to SLR as high as ~11 mm (~4000 Gt under RCP 8.5 and almost 300% increase relative to 1880-2014) can be expected from Jakobshavn Isbræ only. Our choice of ice sheet model comprises the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM).

Greenland ice sheet outlet glacier front changes: comparison of year 2008 with past years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Decker, D. E.; Box, J.; Benson, R.

2008-12-01

NASA's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) imagery are used to calculate inter-annual, end of summer, glacier front area changes at 10 major Greenland ice sheet outlets over the 2000-2008 period. To put the recent 8 end of summer net annual changes into a longer perspective, glacier front position information from the past century are also incorporated. The largest MODIS-era area changes are losses/retreats; found at the relatively large Petermann Gletscher, Zachariae Isstrom, and Jakobshavn Isbrae. The 2007-2008 net ice area losses were 63.4 sq. km, 21.5 sq. km, and 10.9 sq. km, respectively. Of the 10 largest Greenland glaciers surveyed, the total net cumulative area change from end of summer 2000 to 2008 is -536.6 sq km, that is, an area loss equivalent with 6.1 times the area of Manhattan Is. (87.5 sq km) in New York, USA. Ice front advances are evident in 2008; also at relatively large and productive (in terms of ice discharge) glaciers of Helheim (5.7 sq km), Store Gletscher (4.9 sq km), and Kangerdlugssuaq (3.4 sq km). The largest retreat in the 2000-2008 period was 54.2 sq km at Jakobshavn Isbrae between 2002 and 2003; associated with a floating tongue disintegration following a retreat that began in 2001 and has been associated with thinning until floatation is reached; followed by irreversible collapse. The Zachariae Isstrom pro-glacial floating ice shelf loss in 2008 appears to be part of an average ~20 sq km per year disintegration trend; with the exception of the year 2006 (6.2 sq km) advance. If the Zachariae Isstrom retreat continues, we are concerned the largest ice sheet ice stream that empties into Zachariae Isstrom will accelerate, the ice stream front freed of damming back stress, increasing the ice sheet mass budget deficit in ways that are poorly understood and could be surprisingly large. By approximating the width of the surveyed glacier frontal zones, we determine and present effective glacier normalized length (L') changes that also will be presented at the meeting. The narrow Ingia Isbrae advanced in L' the most in 2006-2007 by 9.2 km. Jakobshavn decreased in L' the most in 2002-2003 by 8.0 km. Petermann decreased in length the most in 2000-2001, that is, L' = -5.3 km and again by L' = -3.9 km in 2007-2008. Helheim Gl. retreated in 2004-2005 by L' = -4.6 km and advanced 2005-2006 by L' = 4.4 km. The 10 glacier average L' change from end of summer 2000 end of summer 2008 was 0.6 km. Results from a growing list of glaciers will be presented. We attempt to interpret the observed glacier changes using glaciological theory and regional climate observations.

The Impact of Sea Ice Loss on Wave Dynamics and Coastal Erosion Along the Arctic Coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Overeem, I.; Anderson, R. S.; Wobus, C. W.; Matell, N.; Urban, F. E.; Clow, G. D.; Stanton, T. P.

2010-12-01

The extent of Arctic sea ice has been shrinking rapidly over the past few decades, and attendant acceleration of erosion is now occurring along the Arctic coast. This both brings coastal infrastructure into harm’s way and promotes a complex response of the adjacent landscape to global change. We quantify the effects of declining sea ice extent on coastal erosion rates along a 75-km stretch of coastal permafrost bluffs adjacent to the Beaufort Sea, Alaska, where present-day erosion rates are among the highest in the world at ~14 m yr-1. Our own observations reinforce those of others, and suggest that the rate-limiting process is thermal erosion at the base of the several-meter tall bluffs. Here we focus on the interaction between the nearshore sea ice concentration, the location of the sea ice margin, and the fetch-limited, shallow water wave field, since these parameters ultimately control both sea surface temperatures and the height to which these waters can bathe the frozen bluffs. Thirty years of daily or bi-daily passive microwave data from Nimbus-7 SMMR and DMSP SSM/I satellites reveal that the nearshore open water season lengthened ~54 days over 1979-2009. The open water season, centered in August, expands more rapidly into the fall (September and October~0.92 day yr-1) than into the early summer (July~0.71 days yr-1). Average fetch, defined for our purposes as the distance from the sea ice margin to the coast over which the wind is blowing, increased by a factor 1.7 over the same time-span. Given these time series, we modeled daily nearshore wave heights during the open water season for each year, which we integrated to provide a quantitative metric for the annual exposure of the coastal bluffs to thermal erosion. This “annual wave exposure” increased by 250% during 1979-2009. In the same interval, coastal erosion rates reconstructed from satellite and aerial photo records show less acceleration. We attribute this to a disproportionate extension of the open-water season toward the fall than toward the early summer. This asymmetry fails to tap into the high insolation portion of the summer; expansion into the fall exerts less leverage on coastal change, as sea surface temperatures have significantly declined by late fall. Should the extension of ice-free conditions more strongly advance into the middle of summer, when insolation peaks, we suspect that sea surface temperatures will warm even faster and hence erosion may accelerate yet more strongly.

Sub-ice-shelf sediments record history of twentieth-century retreat of Pine Island Glacier [Sub-ice shelf sediments record 20 th century retreat history of Pine Island Glacier

DOE PAGES

Smith, J. A.; Andersen, T. J.; Shortt, M.; ...

2016-11-23

The West Antarctic Ice Sheet is one of the largest potential sources of rising sea levels. Over the past 40 years, glaciers flowing into the Amundsen Sea sector of the ice sheet have thinned at an accelerating rate, and several numerical models suggest that unstable and irreversible retreat of the grounding line—which marks the boundary between grounded ice and floating ice shelf—is underway. Understanding this recent retreat requires a detailed knowledge of grounding-line history, but the locations of the grounding line before the advent of satellite monitoring in the 1990s are poorly dated. In particular, a history of grounding-line retreatmore » is required to understand the relative roles of contemporaneous ocean-forced change and of ongoing glacier response to an earlier perturbation in driving ice-sheet loss. Here we show that the present thinning and retreat of Pine Island Glacier in West Antarctica is part of a climatically forced trend that was triggered in the 1940s. Our conclusions arise from analysis of sediment cores recovered beneath the floating Pine Island Glacier ice shelf, and constrain the date at which the grounding line retreated from a prominent seafloor ridge. We find that incursion of marine water beyond the crest of this ridge, forming an ocean cavity beneath the ice shelf, occurred in 1945 (±12 years); final ungrounding of the ice shelf from the ridge occurred in 1970 (±4 years). The initial opening of this ocean cavity followed a period of strong warming of West Antarctica, associated with El Niño activity. Furthermore our results suggest that, even when climate forcing weakened, ice-sheet retreat continued.« less

Sub-ice-shelf sediments record history of twentieth-century retreat of Pine Island Glacier [Sub-ice shelf sediments record 20 th century retreat history of Pine Island Glacier

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Smith, J. A.; Andersen, T. J.; Shortt, M.

The West Antarctic Ice Sheet is one of the largest potential sources of rising sea levels. Over the past 40 years, glaciers flowing into the Amundsen Sea sector of the ice sheet have thinned at an accelerating rate, and several numerical models suggest that unstable and irreversible retreat of the grounding line—which marks the boundary between grounded ice and floating ice shelf—is underway. Understanding this recent retreat requires a detailed knowledge of grounding-line history, but the locations of the grounding line before the advent of satellite monitoring in the 1990s are poorly dated. In particular, a history of grounding-line retreatmore » is required to understand the relative roles of contemporaneous ocean-forced change and of ongoing glacier response to an earlier perturbation in driving ice-sheet loss. Here we show that the present thinning and retreat of Pine Island Glacier in West Antarctica is part of a climatically forced trend that was triggered in the 1940s. Our conclusions arise from analysis of sediment cores recovered beneath the floating Pine Island Glacier ice shelf, and constrain the date at which the grounding line retreated from a prominent seafloor ridge. We find that incursion of marine water beyond the crest of this ridge, forming an ocean cavity beneath the ice shelf, occurred in 1945 (±12 years); final ungrounding of the ice shelf from the ridge occurred in 1970 (±4 years). The initial opening of this ocean cavity followed a period of strong warming of West Antarctica, associated with El Niño activity. Furthermore our results suggest that, even when climate forcing weakened, ice-sheet retreat continued.« less

Modelling seasonal meltwater forcing of the velocity of land-terminating margins of the Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koziol, Conrad P.; Arnold, Neil

2018-03-01

Surface runoff at the margin of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) drains to the ice-sheet bed, leading to enhanced summer ice flow. Ice velocities show a pattern of early summer acceleration followed by mid-summer deceleration due to evolution of the subglacial hydrology system in response to meltwater forcing. Modelling the integrated hydrological-ice dynamics system to reproduce measured velocities at the ice margin remains a key challenge for validating the present understanding of the system and constraining the impact of increasing surface runoff rates on dynamic ice mass loss from the GrIS. Here we show that a multi-component model incorporating supraglacial, subglacial, and ice dynamic components applied to a land-terminating catchment in western Greenland produces modelled velocities which are in reasonable agreement with those observed in GPS records for three melt seasons of varying melt intensities. This provides numerical support for the hypothesis that the subglacial system develops analogously to alpine glaciers and supports recent model formulations capturing the transition between distributed and channelized states. The model shows the growth of efficient conduit-based drainage up-glacier from the ice sheet margin, which develops more extensively, and further inland, as melt intensity increases. This suggests current trends of decadal-timescale slowdown of ice velocities in the ablation zone may continue in the near future. The model results also show a strong scaling between average summer velocities and melt season intensity, particularly in the upper ablation area. Assuming winter velocities are not impacted by channelization, our model suggests an upper bound of a 25 % increase in annual surface velocities as surface melt increases to 4 × present levels.

Accelerated redox reaction between chromate and phenolic pollutants during freezing.

PubMed

Ju, Jinjung; Kim, Jaesung; Vetráková, Ľubica; Seo, Jiwon; Heger, Dominik; Lee, Changha; Yoon, Ho-Il; Kim, Kitae; Kim, Jungwon

2017-05-05

The redox reaction between 4-chlorophenol (4-CP) and chromate (Cr(VI)) (i.e., the simultaneous oxidation of 4-CP by Cr(VI) and reduction of Cr(VI) by 4-CP) in ice (i.e., at -20°C) was compared with the corresponding reaction in water (i.e., at 25°C). The redox conversion of 4-CP/Cr(VI), which was negligible in water, was significantly accelerated in ice. This accelerated redox conversion of 4-CP/Cr(VI) in ice is ascribed to the freeze concentration effect occurring during freezing, which excludes solutes (i.e., 4-CP and Cr(VI)) and protons from the ice crystals and subsequently concentrates them in the liquid brine. The concentrations of Cr(VI) and protons in the liquid brine were confirmed by measuring the optical image and the UV-vis absorption spectra of cresol red (CR) as a pH indicator of frozen solution. The redox conversion of 4-CP/Cr(VI) was observed in water when the concentrations of 4-CP/protons or Cr(VI)/protons increased by 100/1000-fold. These results corroborate the freeze concentration effect as the reason for the accelerated redox conversion of 4-CP/Cr(VI) in ice. The redox conversion of various phenolic pollutants/Cr(VI) and 4-CP/Cr(VI) in real wastewater was successfully achieved in ice, which verifies the environmental relevance and importance of freezing-accelerated redox conversion of phenolic pollutants/Cr(VI) in cold regions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

connecting the dots between Greenland ice sheet surface melting and ice flow dynamics (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Box, J. E.; Colgan, W. T.; Fettweis, X.; Phillips, T. P.; Stober, M.

2013-12-01

This presentation is of a 'unified theory' in glaciology that first identifies surface albedo as a key factor explaining total ice sheet mass balance and then surveys a mechanistic self-reinforcing interaction between melt water and ice flow dynamics. The theory is applied in a near-real time total Greenland mass balance retrieval based on surface albedo, a powerful integrator of the competing effects of accumulation and ablation. New snowfall reduces sunlight absorption and increases meltwater retention. Melting amplifies absorbed sunlight through thermal metamorphism and bare ice expansion in space and time. By ';following the melt'; we reveal mechanisms linking existing science into a unified theory. Increasing meltwater softens the ice sheet in three ways: 1.) sensible heating given the water temperature exceeds that of the ice sheet interior; 2.) Some infiltrating water refreezes, transferring latent heat to the ice; 3.) Friction from water turbulence heats the ice. It has been shown that for a point on the ice sheet, basal lubrication increases ice flow speed to a time when an efficient sub-glacial drainage network develops that reduces this effect. Yet, with an increasing melt duration the point where the ice sheet glides on a wet bed increases inland to a larger area. This effect draws down the ice surface elevation, contributing to the ';elevation feedback'. In a perpetual warming scenario, the elevation feedback ultimately leads to ice sheet loss reversible only through much slower ice sheet growth in an ice age environment. As the inland ice sheet accelerates, the horizontal extension pulls cracks and crevasses open, trapping more sunlight, amplifying the effect of melt accelerated ice. As the bare ice area increases, the direct sun-exposed crevassed and infiltration area increases further allowing the ice warming process to occur more broadly. Considering hydrofracture [a.k.a. hydrofracking]; surface meltwater fills cracks, attacking the ice integrity. Because water is 'heavier' than ice, water-filled cracks have unlimited capacity to hydraulically ';jack' open fractures, penetrating, fracturing and disaggregating a solid ice body. This process promotes iceberg calving at more than 150, 1km wide marine terminating Greenland glacier fronts. Resulting from a rising trend of surface melting and sea water temperature, meltwater ejection at the underwater front of marine glaciers drives a an increasing turbulent heat exchange between the glacier front and relatively warm sea water melting it faster. Underwater melting promotes an undercutting of the glacier front leading to ice berg calving. Calving through hydrofracture or marine undercutting provide a direct and immediate ice flow speed response mechanism for surface meltwater production. Ice flow speed reacts because calving reduces flow resistance. The above physical processes interact. Cooling shuts these processes down. Negative feedbacks dampen the warming impulse. Live 21 June, 2013 is a new Danish Web site1 that exploits total mass balance rate of decline as a function of albedo to predict GRACE mass rate of change with 80% explained variance. While surface mass balance explains the mass rate of change slightly higher, surface albedo is an observable quantity as is gravity change.

How robust is the atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea-ice loss in isolation?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kushner, P. J.; Hay, S. E.; Blackport, R.; McCusker, K. E.; Oudar, T.

2017-12-01

It is now apparent that active dynamical coupling between the ocean and atmosphere determines a good deal of how Arctic sea-ice loss changes the large-scale atmospheric circulation. In coupled ocean-atmosphere models, Arctic sea-ice loss indirectly induces a 'mini' global warming and circulation changes that extend into the tropics and the Southern Hemisphere. Ocean-atmosphere coupling also amplifies by about 50% Arctic free-tropospheric warming arising from sea-ice loss (Deser et al. 2015, 2016). The mechanisms at work and how to separate the response to sea-ice loss from the rest of the global warming process remain poorly understood. Different studies have used distinctive numerical approaches and coupled ocean-atmosphere models to address this problem. We put these studies on comparable footing using pattern scaling (Blackport and Kushner 2017) to separately estimate the part of the circulation response that scales with sea-ice loss in the absence of low-latitude warming from the part that scales with low-latitude warming in the absence of sea-ice loss. We consider well-sampled simulations from three different coupled ocean-atmosphere models (CESM1, CanESM2, CNRM-CM5), in which greenhouse warming and sea-ice loss are driven in different ways (sea ice albedo reduction/transient RCP8.5 forcing for CESM1, nudged sea ice/CO2 doubling for CanESM2, heat-flux forcing/constant RCP8.5-derived forcing for CNRM-CM5). Across these different simulations, surprisingly robust influences of Arctic sea-ice loss on atmospheric circulation can be diagnosed using pattern scaling. For boreal winter, the isolated sea-ice loss effect acts to increase warming in the North American Sub-Arctic, decrease warming of the Eurasian continent, enhance precipitation over the west coast of North America, and strengthen the Aleutian Low and the Siberian High. We will also discuss how Arctic free tropospheric warming might be enhanced via midlatitude ocean surface warming induced by sea-ice loss. Less robust is the part of the response that scales with low-latitude warming, which, depending on the model, can reinforce or cancel the response to sea-ice loss. The extent to which a "tug of war" exists between tropical and high-latitude influences on the general circulation might thus be model dependent.

Isolating the atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea-ice loss in the coupled climate system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kushner, Paul; Blackport, Russell

2017-04-01

In the coupled climate system, projected global warming drives extensive sea-ice loss, but sea-ice loss drives warming that amplifies and can be confounded with the global warming process. This makes it challenging to cleanly attribute the atmospheric circulation response to sea-ice loss within coupled earth-system model (ESM) simulations of greenhouse warming. In this study, many centuries of output from coupled ocean/atmosphere/land/sea-ice ESM simulations driven separately by sea-ice albedo reduction and by projected greenhouse-dominated radiative forcing are combined to cleanly isolate the hemispheric scale response of the circulation to sea-ice loss. To isolate the sea-ice loss signal, a pattern scaling approach is proposed in which the local multidecadal mean atmospheric response is assumed to be separately proportional to the total sea-ice loss and to the total low latitude ocean surface warming. The proposed approach estimates the response to Arctic sea-ice loss with low latitude ocean temperatures fixed and vice versa. The sea-ice response includes a high northern latitude easterly zonal wind response, an equatorward shift of the eddy driven jet, a weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex, an anticyclonic sea level pressure anomaly over coastal Eurasia, a cyclonic sea level pressure anomaly over the North Pacific, and increased wintertime precipitation over the west coast of North America. Many of these responses are opposed by the response to low-latitude surface warming with sea ice fixed. However, both sea-ice loss and low latitude surface warming act in concert to reduce storm track strength throughout the mid and high latitudes. The responses are similar in two related versions of the National Center for Atmospheric Research earth system models, apart from the stratospheric polar vortex response. Evidence is presented that internal variability can easily contaminate the estimates if not enough independent climate states are used to construct them. References: Blackport, R. and P. Kushner, 2017: Isolating the atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea-ice loss in the coupled climate system. J. Climate, in press. Blackport, R. and P. Kushner, 2016: The Transient and Equilibrium Climate Response to Rapid Summertime Sea Ice Loss in CCSM4. J. Climate, 29, 401-417, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0284.1.

Using aerogravity and seismic data to model the bathymetry and upper crustal structure beneath the Pine Island Glacier ice shelf, West Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muto, A.; Peters, L. E.; Anandakrishnan, S.; Alley, R. B.; Riverman, K. L.

2013-12-01

Recent estimates indicate that ice shelves along the Amundsen Sea coast in West Antarctica are losing substantial mass through sub-ice-shelf melting and contributing to the accelerating mass loss of the grounded ice buttressed by them. For Pine Island Glacier (PIG), relatively warm Circumpolar Deep Water has been identified as the key driver of the sub-ice-shelf melting although poor constraints on PIG sub-ice shelf have restricted thorough understanding of these ice-ocean interactions. Aerogravity data from NASA's Operation IceBridge (OIB) have been useful in identifying large-scale (on the order of ten kilometers) features but the results have relatively large uncertainties due to the inherent non-uniqueness of the gravity inversion. Seismic methods offer the most direct means of providing water thickness and upper crustal geological constraints, but availability of such data sets over the PIG ice shelf has been limited due to logistical constraints. Here we present a comparative analysis of the bathymetry and upper crustal structure beneath the ice shelf of PIG through joint inversion of OIB aerogravity data and in situ active-source seismic measurements collected in the 2012-13 austral summer. Preliminary results indicate improved resolution of the ocean cavity, particularly in the interior and sides of the PIG ice shelf, and sedimentary drape across the region. Seismically derived variations in ice and ocean water densities are also applied to the gravity inversion to produce a more robust model of PIG sub-ice shelf structure, as opposed to commonly used single ice and water densities across the entire study region. Misfits between the seismically-constrained gravity inversion and that estimated previously from aerogravity alone provide insights on the sensitivity of gravity measurements to model perturbations and highlight the limitations of employing gravity data to model ice shelf environments when no other sub-ice constraints are available.

Isolating the atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea-ice loss in the coupled climate system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kushner, P. J.; Blackport, R.

2016-12-01

In the coupled climate system, projected global warming drives extensive sea-ice loss, but sea-ice loss drives warming that amplifies and can be confounded with the global warming process. This makes it challenging to cleanly attribute the atmospheric circulation response to sea-ice loss within coupled earth-system model (ESM) simulations of greenhouse warming. In this study, many centuries of output from coupled ocean/atmosphere/land/sea-ice ESM simulations driven separately by sea-ice albedo reduction and by projected greenhouse-dominated radiative forcing are combined to cleanly isolate the hemispheric scale response of the circulation to sea-ice loss. To isolate the sea-ice loss signal, a pattern scaling approach is proposed in which the local multidecadal mean atmospheric response is assumed to be separately proportional to the total sea-ice loss and to the total low latitude ocean surface warming. The proposed approach estimates the response to Arctic sea-ice loss with low latitude ocean temperatures fixed and vice versa. The sea-ice response includes a high northern latitude easterly zonal wind response, an equatorward shift of the eddy driven jet, a weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex, an anticyclonic sea level pressure anomaly over coastal Eurasia, a cyclonic sea level pressure anomaly over the North Pacific, and increased wintertime precipitation over the west coast of North America. Many of these responses are opposed by the response to low-latitude surface warming with sea ice fixed. However, both sea-ice loss and low latitude surface warming act in concert to reduce storm track strength throughout the mid and high latitudes. The responses are similar in two related versions of the National Center for Atmospheric Research earth system models, apart from the stratospheric polar vortex response. Evidence is presented that internal variability can easily contaminate the estimates if not enough independent climate states are used to construct them.

Annual Greenland Accumulation Rates (2009-2012) from Airborne Snow Radar

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koenig, Lora S.; Ivanoff, Alvaro; Alexander, Patrick M.; MacGregor, Joseph A.; Fettweis, Xavier; Panzer, Ben; Paden, John D.; Forster, Richard R.; Das, Indrani; McConnell, Joseph R.;

Exploring the sensitivity of global ocean circulation to future ice loss from Antarctica

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Condron, Alan

The sensitivity of the global ocean circulation and climate to large increases in iceberg calving and meltwater discharges from the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) are rarely studied and poorly understood. The requirement to investigate this topic is heightened by growing evidence that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is vulnerable to rapid retreat and collapse on multidecadal-to-centennial timescales. Observations collected over the last 30 years indicate that the WAIS is now losing mass at an accelerated and that a collapse may have already begun in the Amundsen Sea sector. In addition, some recent future model simulations of the AIS showmore » the potential for rapid ice sheet retreat in the next 50 – 300 years. Such a collapse would be associated with the discharge of enormous volumes of ice and meltwater to the Southern Ocean. This project funds PI Condron to begin assessing the sensitivity of the global ocean circulation to projected increases in meltwater discharge and iceberg calving from the AIS for the next 50 – 100 years. A series of climate model simulations will determine changes in ocean circulation and temperature at the ice sheet grounding line, the role of mesoscale ocean eddies in mixing and transporting freshwater away from the continent to deep water formation regions, and the likely impact on the northward transport of heat to Europe and North America.« less

Multi-decadal mass loss of glaciers in the Everest area (Nepal Himalaya) derived from stereo imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bolch, T.; Pieczonka, T.; Benn, D. I.

2011-04-01

Mass loss of Himalayan glaciers has wide-ranging consequences such as changing runoff distribution, sea level rise and an increasing risk of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). The assessment of the regional and global impact of glacier changes in the Himalaya is, however, hampered by a lack of mass balance data for most of the range. Multi-temporal digital terrain models (DTMs) allow glacier mass balance to be calculated. Here, we present a time series of mass changes for ten glaciers covering an area of about 50 km2 south and west of Mt. Everest, Nepal, using stereo Corona spy imagery (years 1962 and 1970), aerial images and recent high resolution satellite data (Cartosat-1). This is the longest time series of mass changes in the Himalaya. We reveal that the glaciers have been significantly losing mass since at least 1970, despite thick debris cover. The specific mass loss for 1970-2007 is 0.32 ± 0.08 m w.e. a-1, however, not higher than the global average. Comparisons of the recent DTMs with earlier time periods indicate an accelerated mass loss. This is, however, hardly statistically significant due to high uncertainty, especially of the lower resolution ASTER DTM. The characteristics of surface lowering can be explained by spatial variations of glacier velocity, the thickness of the debris-cover, and ice melt due to exposed ice cliffs and ponds.

Rapid Collapse of the Vavilov Ice Cap, Russian High Arctic.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Willis, M. J.; Zheng, W.; Durkin, W. J., IV; Pritchard, M. E.; Ramage, J. M.; Dowdeswell, J. A.; Benham, T. J.; Glazovsky, A.; Macheret, Y.; Porter, C. C.

2016-12-01

Cold based ice caps and glaciers are thought to respond slowly to environmental changes. As sea ice cover evolves in the Arctic, a feedback process alters air-temperatures and precipitation patterns across the region. During the last decades of the 20th century the land-terminating western margin of the Vavilov Ice Cap, on October Revolution Island of the Severnaya Zemlya Archipelago, advanced slowly westwards. The advance was driven by precipitation changes that occurred about half a millennia ago. InSAR shows that in 1996 the margin sustained ice speeds of around 20 m/yr. By 2000 the ice front had moved a short distance into the Kara Sea and had transitioned to a marine-terminating front, although an ice apron around the ice margin indicates the ice there was still frozen to the bed and there is no evidence of calving in satellite imagery. In 2013 ice motions near the terminus had accelerated to around 1 m/day. By late 2015 the main trunk of the newly activated outlet glacier attained speeds of 25 m/day and the inland portion of the ice cap thinned at rates of more than 0.3 m/day. The acceleration of the outlet glacier occurred due to its advance over weak, water-saturated marine sediments that provide little resistance to ice flow, and to the removal of lateral resistive stresses as the glacier advanced out into an open embayment. Longitudinal stretching at the front forces an increase in the surface slope upstream. Rapid rates of motion inland generate frictional melt at the bed, possibly aided by cryohydrological warming. Large areas of the interior of the Vavilov ice cap are now below the equilibrium line and the grounded portion of the ice cap is losing mass at a rate of 4.5 km3 w.e./year. The changes at the Vavilov are likely irrecoverable in a warming climate due to a reduction in the accumulation area of the ice cap. Increased precipitation drove the advance, which accelerated due to the presence of soft sediments. The acceleration lowered the elevation of the interior portion of the ice cap to a point from which it cannot recover. A second, similar collapse seems to be underway at basin-2 on the southern margin of the Austfonna Ice cap in Svalbard.

A Model Assessment of Satellite Observed Trends in Polar Sea Ice Extents

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vinnikov, Konstantin Y.; Cavalieri, Donald J.; Parkinson, Claire L.

2005-01-01

For more than three decades now, satellite passive microwave observations have been used to monitor polar sea ice. Here we utilize sea ice extent trends determined from primarily satellite data for both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres for the period 1972(73)-2004 and compare them with results from simulations by eleven climate models. In the Northern Hemisphere, observations show a statistically significant decrease of sea ice extent and an acceleration of sea ice retreat during the past three decades. However, from the modeled natural variability of sea ice extents in control simulations, we conclude that the acceleration is not statistically significant and should not be extrapolated into the future. Observations and model simulations show that the time scale of climate variability in sea ice extent in the Southern Hemisphere is much larger than in the Northern Hemisphere and that the Southern Hemisphere sea ice extent trends are not statistically significant.

Climatic effects on ice-jam flooding of the Peace-Athabasca Delta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beltaos, S.; Prowse, T.; Bonsal, B.; Mackay, R.; Romolo, L.; Pietroniro, A.; Toth, B.

2006-12-01

The Peace-Athabasca Delta (PAD) in northern Alberta is one of the world's largest inland freshwater deltas, home to large populations of waterfowl, muskrat, beaver, and free-ranging wood bison. In recent decades, a paucity of ice-jam flooding in the lower Peace River has resulted in prolonged dry periods and considerable reduction in the area covered by lakes and ponds that provide habitat for aquatic life in the PAD region. Building on previous work that has identified the salient hydro-climatic factors, the frequency of ice-jam floods is considered under present (1961-1990) and future (2070-2099) climatic conditions. The latter are determined using temperature and precipitation output from the Canadian Climate Centre's second-generation Global Climate Model (CGCM2) for two different greenhouse-gas/sulphate emission scenarios. The analysis indicates that the ice season is likely to be reduced by 2-4 weeks, while future ice covers would be slightly thinner than they are at present. More importantly, a large part of the Peace River basin is expected to experience frequent and sustained mid-winter thaws, leading to significant melt and depleted snowpacks in the spring. Using an empirical relationship between ice-jam flood occurrence and size of the spring snowpack, a severe reduction in the frequency of ice-jam flooding is predicted under both future-climate scenarios that were considered. In turn, this trend is likely to accelerate the loss of aquatic habitat in the PAD region. Implications for potential mitigation and adaptation strategies are discussed. Copyright

Upper Ocean Circulation in the Glacial Northeast Atlantic during Heinrich Stadials Ice-Sheet Retreat

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toucanne, S.; Soulet, G.; Bosq, M.; Marjolaine, S.; Zaragosi, S.; Bourillet, J. F.; Bayon, G.

2016-12-01

Intermediate ocean water variability is involved in climate changes over geological timescales. As a prominent example, changes in North Atlantic subsurface water properties (including warming) during Heinrich Stadials may have triggered the so-called Heinrich events through ice-shelf loss and attendant ice-stream acceleration. While the origin of Heinrich Stadials and subsequent iceberg calving remains controversial, paleoceanographic research efforts mainly focus on the deep Atlantic overturning, leaving the upper ocean largely unexplored. To further evaluate variability in upper ocean circulation and its possible relationship with ice-sheet instabilities, a depth-transect of eight cores (BOBGEO and GITAN-TANDEM cruises) from the Northeast Atlantic (down to 2 km water depth) have been used to investigate kinematic and chemical changes in the upper ocean during the last glacial period. Our results reveal that near-bottom flow speeds (reconstructed by using sortable silt mean grain-size and X-ray fluorescence core-scanner Zr/Rb ratio) and water-masses chemistry (carbon and neodymium isotopes performed on foraminifera) substantially changed in phase with the millennial-scale climate changes recognized in the ice-core records. Our results are compared with paleoceanographic reconstructions of the 'Western Boundary Undercurrent' in order to discuss regional hydrographic differences at both sides of the North Atlantic, as well as with the fluctuations of both the marine- (through ice-rafted debris) and terrestrial-terminating ice-streams (through meltwater discharges) of the circum-Atlantic ice-sheets. Particular attention will be given to the Heinrich Stadials and concomitant Channel River meltwater discharges into the Northeast Atlantic in response to the melting of the European Ice-Sheet. This comparison helps to disentangle the cryosphere-ocean interactions throughout the last ice age, and the sequence of events occurring in the course of the Heinrich Stadials.

Sub-ice-shelf sediments record history of twentieth-century retreat of Pine Island Glacier.

PubMed

Smith, J A; Andersen, T J; Shortt, M; Gaffney, A M; Truffer, M; Stanton, T P; Bindschadler, R; Dutrieux, P; Jenkins, A; Hillenbrand, C-D; Ehrmann, W; Corr, H F J; Farley, N; Crowhurst, S; Vaughan, D G

2017-01-05

The West Antarctic Ice Sheet is one of the largest potential sources of rising sea levels. Over the past 40 years, glaciers flowing into the Amundsen Sea sector of the ice sheet have thinned at an accelerating rate, and several numerical models suggest that unstable and irreversible retreat of the grounding line-which marks the boundary between grounded ice and floating ice shelf-is underway. Understanding this recent retreat requires a detailed knowledge of grounding-line history, but the locations of the grounding line before the advent of satellite monitoring in the 1990s are poorly dated. In particular, a history of grounding-line retreat is required to understand the relative roles of contemporaneous ocean-forced change and of ongoing glacier response to an earlier perturbation in driving ice-sheet loss. Here we show that the present thinning and retreat of Pine Island Glacier in West Antarctica is part of a climatically forced trend that was triggered in the 1940s. Our conclusions arise from analysis of sediment cores recovered beneath the floating Pine Island Glacier ice shelf, and constrain the date at which the grounding line retreated from a prominent seafloor ridge. We find that incursion of marine water beyond the crest of this ridge, forming an ocean cavity beneath the ice shelf, occurred in 1945 (±12 years); final ungrounding of the ice shelf from the ridge occurred in 1970 (±4 years). The initial opening of this ocean cavity followed a period of strong warming of West Antarctica, associated with El Niño activity. Thus our results suggest that, even when climate forcing weakened, ice-sheet retreat continued.

Ice-sheet thinning and acceleration at Camp Century, Greenlan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Colgan, W. T.

2017-12-01

Camp Century, Greenland (77.18 °N, 61.12 °W, 1900 m), is located approximately 150 km inland from the ice-sheet margin in Northwest Greenland. In-situ and remotely-sensed measurements of ice-sheet elevation at Camp Century exhibit a thinning trend between 1964 and the present. A comparison of 1966 and 2017 firn density profiles indicates that a portion of this ice-sheet thinning is attributable to increased firn compaction rate. In-situ measurements of increasing ice surface velocity over the 1977-2017 period indicate that enhanced horizontal divergence of ice flux is also contributing to ice dynamic thinning at Camp Century. This apparent ice dynamic thinning could potentially result from a migrating local flow divide or decreasing effective ice viscosity. In a shorter-term context, observations of decadal-scale ice-sheet thinning and acceleration at Camp Century highlights underappreciated transience in inland ice form and flow during the satellite era. In a longer-term context, these multi-decadal observations contrast with inferences of millennial-scale ice-sheet thickening and deceleration at Camp Century.

Investigation of Controls on Ice Dynamics in Northeast Greenland from Ice-Thickness Change Record Using Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Csatho, B. M.; Larour, E. Y.; Schenk, A. F.; Schlegel, N.; Duncan, K.

2015-12-01

We present a new, complete ice thickness change reconstruction of the NE sector of the Greenland Ice Sheet for 1978-2014, partitioned into changes due to surface processes and ice dynamics. Elevation changes are computed from all available stereoscopic DEMs, and laser altimetry data (ICESat, ATM, LVIS). Surface Mass Balance and firn-compaction estimates are from RACMO2.3. Originating nearly at the divide of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS), the dynamically active North East Ice Stream (NEGIS) is capable of rapidly transmitting ice-marginal forcing far inland. Thus, NEGIS provides a possible mechanism for a rapid drawdown of ice from the ice sheet interior as marginal warming, thinning and retreat continues. Our altimetry record shows accelerating dynamic thinning of Zachariæ Isstrom, initially limited to the deepest part of the fjord near the calving front (1978-2000) and then extending at least 75 km inland. At the same time, changes over the Nioghalvfjerdsfjorden (N79) Glacier are negligible. We also detect localized large dynamic changes at higher elevations on the ice sheet. These thickness changes, often occurring at the onset of fast flow, could indicate rapid variations of basal lubrication due to rerouting of subglacial drainage. We investigate the possible causes of the observed spatiotemporal pattern of ice sheet elevation changes using the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM). This work build on our previous studies examining the sensitivity of ice flow within the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream (NEGIS) to key fields, including ice viscosity, basal drag. We assimilate the new altimetry record into ISSM to improve the reconstruction of basal friction and ice viscosity. Finally, airborne geophysical (gravity, magnetic) and ice-penetrating radar data is examined to identify the potential geologic controls on the ice thickness change pattern. Our study provides the first comprehensive reconstruction of ice thickness changes for the entire NEGIS drainage basin during the last 40 years. Through the use of ISSM, we examine possible mechanism explaining the observed changes. The improved understanding gained through this research will contribute better projections of future ice loss from this most vulnerable region of the GrIS.

Remarkable separability of the circulation response to Arctic sea ice loss and greenhouse gas forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCusker, K. E.; Kushner, P. J.; Fyfe, J. C.; Sigmond, M.; Kharin, V. V.; Bitz, C. M.

2017-12-01

Arctic sea ice loss has an important effect on local climate through increases in ocean to atmosphere heat flux and associated feedbacks, and may influence midlatitude climate by changing large-scale circulation that can enhance or counter changes that are due to greenhouse gases. The extent to which climate change in a warming world can be understood as greenhouse gas-induced changes that are modulated by Arctic sea ice loss depends on how additive the responses to the separate influences are. Here we use a novel sea ice nudging methodology in the Canadian Earth System Model, which has a fully coupled ocean, to isolate the effects of Arctic sea ice loss and doubled atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) to determine their additivity and sensitivity to mean state. We find that the separate effects of Arctic sea ice loss and doubled CO2 are remarkably additive and relatively insensitive to mean climate state. This separability is evident in several thermodynamic and dynamic fields throughout most of the year, from hemispheric to synoptic scales. The extent to which the regional response to sea ice loss sometimes agrees with and sometimes cancels the response to CO2 is quantified. In this model, Arctic sea ice loss enhances the CO2-induced surface air temperature changes nearly everywhere and zonal wind changes over the Pacific sector, whereas sea ice loss counters CO2-induced sea level pressure changes nearly everywhere over land and zonal wind changes over the Atlantic sector. This separability of the response to Arctic sea ice loss from the response to CO2 doubling gives credence to the body of work in which Arctic sea ice loss is isolated from the forcing that modified it, and might provide a means to better interpret the diverse array of modeling and observational studies of Arctic change and influence.

Channelized melting drives thinning under Dotson ice shelf, Western Antarctic Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gourmelen, N.; Goldberg, D.; Snow, K.; Henley, S. F.; Bingham, R. G.; Kimura, S.; Hogg, A.; Shepherd, A.; Mouginot, J.; Lenaerts, J.; Ligtenberg, S.; Van De Berg, W. J.

2017-12-01

The majority of meteoric ice that forms in West Antarctica leaves the ice sheet through floating ice shelves, many of which have been thinning substantially over the last 25 years. A significant proportion of ice-shelf thinning has been driven by submarine melting facilitated by increased access of relatively warm (>0.6oC) modified Circumpolar Deep Water to sub-shelf cavities. Ice shelves play a significant role in stabilising the ice sheet from runaway retreat and regulating its contribution to sea level change. Ice-shelf melting has also been implicated in sustaining high primary productivity in Antarctica's coastal seas. However, these processes vary regionally and are not fully understood. Under some ice shelves, concentrated melting leads to the formation of inverted channels. These channels guide buoyant melt-laden outflow, which can lead to localised melting of the sea ice cover. The channels may also potentially lead to heightened crevassing, which in turn affects ice-shelf stability. Meanwhile, numerical studies suggest that buttressing loss is sensitive to the location of ice removal within an ice-shelf. Thus it is important that we observe spatial patterns, as well as magnitudes, of ice-shelf thinning, in order to improve understanding of the ocean drivers of thinning and of their impacts on ice-shelf stability. Here we show from high-resolution altimetry measurements acquired between 2010 to 2016 that Dotson Ice Shelf, West Antarctica, thins in response to basal melting focussed along a single 5 km-wide and 60 km-long channel extending from the ice shelf's grounding zone to its calving front. The coupled effect of geostrophic circulation and ice-shelf topography leads to the observed concentration of basal melting. Analysis of previous datasets suggests that this process has been ongoing for at least the last 25 years. If focused thinning continues at present rates, the channel would melt through within 40-50 years, almost two centuries before it is projected from the average thinning rate. Our findings provide evidence of basal melt-driven sub-ice shelf channel formation and its potential for accelerating the weakening of ice shelves.

Forecasting consequences of changing sea ice availability for Pacific walruses

USGS Publications Warehouse

Udevitz, Mark S.; Jay, Chadwick V.; Taylor, Rebecca; Fischbach, Anthony S.; Beatty, William S.; Noren, Shawn R.

2017-01-01

The accelerating rate of anthropogenic alteration and disturbance of environments has increased the need for forecasting effects of environmental change on fish and wildlife populations. Models linking projections of environmental change with behavioral responses and bioenergetic effects can provide a basis for these forecasts. There is particular interest in forecasting effects of projected reductions in sea ice availability on Pacific walruses (Odobenus rosmarus divergens). Declining extent of summer sea ice in the Chukchi Sea has caused Pacific walruses to increase use of coastal haulouts and decrease use of more productive offshore feeding areas. Such climate-induced changes in distribution and behavior could ultimately affect the status of the population. We developed behavioral models to relate changes in sea ice availability to adult female walrus movements and activity levels, and adapted previously developed bioenergetics models to relate those activity levels to energy requirements and the ability to meet those requirements. We then linked these models to general circulation model projections of future ice availability to forecast autumn body condition for female walruses during mid- and late-century time periods. Our results suggest that as sea ice becomes less available in the Chukchi Sea, female walruses will spend more time in the southwestern region of that sea, less time resting, and less time foraging. Median forecasted autumn body masses were 7–12% lower in future scenarios than during recent times, but posterior distributions broadly overlapped and median forecasted seasonal mass losses (15–34%) were comparable to seasonal mass losses routinely experienced by other pinnipeds. These seasonal reductions in body condition would be unlikely to result in demographic effects, but if walruses were unable to rebuild endogenous reserves while wintering in the Bering Sea, cumulative effects could have implications for reproduction and survival, ultimately affecting the status of the Pacific walrus population. Our approach provides a general framework for forecasting consequences of the broad range of environmental changes and anthropogenic disturbances that may affect bioenergetics through behavioral responses or changes in prey availability.

Baseline Monitoring of the Western Arctic Ocean Estimates 20% of Canadian Basin Surface Waters Are Undersaturated with Respect to Aragonite

PubMed Central

Robbins, Lisa L.; Wynn, Jonathan G.; Lisle, John T.; Yates, Kimberly K.; Knorr, Paul O.; Byrne, Robert H.; Liu, Xuewu; Patsavas, Mark C.; Azetsu-Scott, Kumiko; Takahashi, Taro

2013-01-01

Marine surface waters are being acidified due to uptake of anthropogenic carbon dioxide, resulting in surface ocean areas of undersaturation with respect to carbonate minerals, including aragonite. In the Arctic Ocean, acidification is expected to occur at an accelerated rate with respect to the global oceans, but a paucity of baseline data has limited our understanding of the extent of Arctic undersaturation and of regional variations in rates and causes. The lack of data has also hindered refinement of models aimed at projecting future trends of ocean acidification. Here, based on more than 34,000 data records collected in 2010 and 2011, we establish a baseline of inorganic carbon data (pH, total alkalinity, dissolved inorganic carbon, partial pressure of carbon dioxide, and aragonite saturation index) for the western Arctic Ocean. This data set documents aragonite undersaturation in ∼20% of the surface waters of the combined Canada and Makarov basins, an area characterized by recent acceleration of sea ice loss. Conservative tracer studies using stable oxygen isotopic data from 307 sites show that while the entire surface of this area receives abundant freshwater from meteoric sources, freshwater from sea ice melt is most closely linked to the areas of carbonate mineral undersaturation. These data link the Arctic Ocean’s largest area of aragonite undersaturation to sea ice melt and atmospheric CO2 absorption in areas of low buffering capacity. Some relatively supersaturated areas can be linked to localized biological activity. Collectively, these observations can be used to project trends of ocean acidification in higher latitude marine surface waters where inorganic carbon chemistry is largely influenced by sea ice meltwater. PMID:24040074

Baseline monitoring of the western Arctic Ocean estimates 20% of the Canadian Basin surface waters are undersaturated with respect to aragonite

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robbins, Lisa L.; Wynn, Jonathan G.; Lisle, John T.; Yates, Kimberly K.; Knorr, Paul O.; Byrne, Robert H.; Liu, Xuewu; Patsavas, Mark C.; Azetsu-Scott, Kumiko; Takahashi, Taro

2013-01-01

Marine surface waters are being acidified due to uptake of anthropogenic carbon dioxide, resulting in surface ocean areas of undersaturation with respect to carbonate minerals, including aragonite. In the Arctic Ocean, acidification is expected to occur at an accelerated rate with respect to the global oceans, but a paucity of baseline data has limited our understanding of the extent of Arctic undersaturation and of regional variations in rates and causes. The lack of data has also hindered refinement of models aimed at projecting future trends of ocean acidification. Here, based on more than 34,000 data records collected in 2010 and 2011, we establish a baseline of inorganic carbon data (pH, total alkalinity, dissolved inorganic carbon, partial pressure of carbon dioxide, and aragonite saturation index) for the western Arctic Ocean. This data set documents aragonite undersaturation in ~20% of the surface waters of the combined Canada and Makarov basins, an area characterized by recent acceleration of sea ice loss. Conservative tracer studies using stable oxygen isotopic data from 307 sites show that while the entire surface of this area receives abundant freshwater from meteoric sources, freshwater from sea ice melt is most closely linked to the areas of carbonate mineral undersaturation. These data link the Arctic Ocean’s largest area of aragonite undersaturation to sea ice melt and atmospheric CO2 absorption in areas of low buffering capacity. Some relatively supersaturated areas can be linked to localized biological activity. Collectively, these observations can be used to project trends of ocean acidification in higher latitude marine surface waters where inorganic carbon chemistry is largely influenced by sea ice meltwater.

Glacier velocity Changes at Novaya Zemlya revealed by ALOS1 and ALOS2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Konuma, Y.; Furuya, M.

2016-12-01

Matsuo and Heki (2013) revealed substantial ice-mass loss at Novaya Zemlya by Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE). In addition, the elevation thinning (Moholdt et al., 2012) and glacier retreat (Carr et al., 2014) has been reported. Melkonian et al. (2016) showed velocities map at coastal area of Novaya Zemlya by using Worldview, Landsat, ASTER and TerraSAR-X images. However, the entire distributions of ice speed and the temporal evolution remain unclear. In this study, we measured the glacier velocities using L-band SAR sensor onboard ALOS1 and ALOS2. We analyzed the data using pixel-offset tracking technique. We could observe the entire glaciated region in 2007-2008 winter and 2008-2009 winter. In particular, we could examine the velocities at middle of the glaciated region from 2006 to 2015 due to the availability of high-temporal resolution SAR data. As a result, we found the most glaciers in Novaya Zemlya have been accelerating since 1990s (Strozzi et al., 2008). Specially, Shokalskogo glacier has dramatically accelerated from the maximum of 300 ma-1 in 1998 to maximum of 600 ma-1 in 2015. Additionally, it turns out that there are marked differences in the glacier's velocities between the Barents Sea side and the Kara Sea side. The averaged maximum speed of the glaciers in Barents Sea side were approximately two times faster than that in Kara Sea side. We speculate the causes as the difference of topography under the calving front and sea-ice concentration. While each side has many calving glaciers, the fjord distribution in the Barents Sea side is much broader than in the Kara Sea side. Moreover, sea-ice concentration in the Barents Sea is lower than the Kara Sea, which might affect the glaciers' speed distribution.

Mass gain of glaciers in Lahaul and Spiti region (North India) during the nineties revealed by in-situ and satellite geodetic measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vincent, C.; Ramanathan, A.; Wagnon, P.; Dobhal, D. P.; Linda, A.; Berthier, E.; Sharma, P.; Arnaud, Y.; Azam, M. F.; Jose, P. G.; Gardelle, J.

2012-09-01

The volume change of Chhota Shigri Glacier (India, 32° N) between 1988 and 2010 has been determined using in-situ geodetic measurements. This glacier has experienced only a slight mass loss over the last 22 yr (-3.8 ± 1.8 m w.e.). Using satellite digital elevation models (DEM) differencing and field measurements, we measure a negative mass balance (MB) between 1999 and 2011 (-4.7 ± 1.8 m w.e.). Thus, we deduce a positive MB between 1988 and 1999 (+1.0 ± 2.5 m w.e.). Furthermore, satellite DEM differencing reveals a good correspondence between the MB of Chhota Shigri Glacier and the MB of an over 2000 km2 glaciarized area in the Lahaul and Spiti region during 1999-2011. We conclude that there has been no large ice wastage in this region over the last 22 yr, ice mass loss being limited to the last decade. This contrasts to the most recent compilation of MB data in the Himalayan range that indicates ice wastage since 1975, accelerating after 1990. For the rest of western Himalaya, available observations of glacier MBs are too sparse and discontinuous to provide a clear and relevant regional pattern of glacier volume change over the last two decades.

The Effect of Ice Formations on Propeller Performance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Neel, C. B., Jr.; Bright, L. G.

1950-01-01

Measurements of propeller efficiency loss due to ice formation are supplemented by an analysis to establish the magnitude of efficiency losses to be anticipated during flight in icing conditions. The measurements were made during flight in natural icing conditions; whereas the analysis consisted of an investIgation of changes in blade-section aerodynamic characteristics caused by ice formation and the resulting propeller efficiency changes. Agreement in the order of magnitude of eff 1- ciency losses to be expected is obtained between measured and analytical results. The results indicate that, in general, efficiency losses can be expected to be less than 10 percent; whereas maximum losses, which will be encountered only rarely, may be as high as 15 or 20 percent. Reported. losses larger than 15 or 20 percent, based on reductions in airplane performance, probably are due to ice accretions on other parts of the airplane. Blade-element theory is used in the analytical treatment, and calculations are made to show the degree to which the aerodynamic characteristics of a blade section. must be altered to produce various propeller efficiency losses. The effects of ice accretions on airfoil-section characteristics at subcritical speeds and their influence on drag-divergence Mach number are examined, and. the attendant maximum efficiency losses are computed. The effect of kinetic heating on the radial extent of ice formation is considered, and its influence on required length of blade heating shoes is discussed. It is demonstrated how the efficiency loss resulting from an icing encounter is influenced by the decisions of the pilot in adjusting the engine and propeller controls.

From the front

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Price, Stephen

The causes of recent dynamic thinning of Greenland's outlet glaciers have been debated. Realistic simulations suggest that changes at the marine fronts of these glaciers are to blame, implying that dynamic thinning will cease once the glaciers retreat to higher ground. For the last decade, many outlet glaciers in Greenland that terminate in the ocean have accelerated, thinned, and retreated. To explain these dynamic changes, two hypotheses have been discussed. Atmospheric warming has increased surface melting and may also have increased the amount of meltwater reaching the glacier bed, increasing lubrication at the base and hence the rate of glaciermore » sliding. Alternatively, a change in the delicate balance of forces where the glacier fronts meet the ocean could trigger the changes. Faezeh Nick and colleagues5 present ice-sheet modeling experiments that mimic the observations on Helheim glacier, East Greenland, and suggest that the dynamic behaviour of outlet glaciers follows from perturbations at their marine fronts. Greenland's ice sheet loses mass partly through surface melting and partly through fast flowing outlet glaciers that connect the vast plateau of inland ice with the ocean. Earlier ice sheet models have failed to reproduce the dynamic variability exhibited by ice sheets over time. It has therefore not been possible to distinguish with confidence between basal lubrication from surface meltwater and changes at the glaciers' marine fronts as causes for the observed changes on Greenland's outlet glaciers. But this distinction bears directly on future sea-level rise, the raison d'etre of much of modern-day glaciology: If the recent dynamic mass loss Greenland's outlet glaciers is linked to changing atmospheric temperatures, it may continue for as long as temperatures continue to increase. On the other hand, if the source of the dynamic mass loss is a perturbation at the ice-ocean boundary, these glaciers will lose contact with that perturbation after a finite amount of thinning and retreat. Therefore, the first hypothesis implies continued retreat of outlet glaciers into the foreseeable future, while the second does not -- provided the bedrock topography prohibits a connection between the retreating glacier and the ocean. Nick and coauthors test the physical mechanisms implied in each hypotbesis in an innovative ice-flow model, and use that model to try to match a time series of observations from Helheim glacier, one of Greenland's three largest outlet glaciers. Along with many observations, the simulations strongly support the contention that the recent retreat of Greenland's outlet glaciers is the result of changes at their marine fronts.Further, the simulations confirm the earlier hypotheses that bedrock topography largely controlled Helheim glacier's rapid acceleration and retreat in 2004 and 2005, and its deceleration and stabilization in 2006. Finally, the current work implies that if requirements of observational data (high-resolution bed topography) and computational resources (fine computational grid resolution) can be met, improved predictive capability for ice-sheet models is attainable. With respect to the concerns raised by the IPCC, this study signals progress.« less

Mass budget of the glaciers and ice caps of the Queen Elizabeth Islands, Canada, from 1991 to 2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Millan, Romain; Mouginot, Jeremie; Rignot, Eric

2017-02-01

Recent studies indicate that the glaciers and ice caps in Queen Elizabeth Islands (QEI), Canada have experienced an increase in ice mass loss during the last two decades, but the contribution of ice dynamics to this loss is not well known. We present a comprehensive mapping of ice velocity using a suite of satellite data from year 1991 to 2015, combined with ice thickness data from NASA Operation IceBridge, to calculate ice discharge. We find that ice discharge increased significantly after 2011 in Prince of Wales Icefield, maintained or decreased in other sectors, whereas glacier surges have little impact on long-term trends in ice discharge. During 1991-2005, the QEI mass loss averaged 6.3 ± 1.1 Gt yr-1, 52% from ice discharge and the rest from surface mass balance (SMB). During 2005-2014, the mass loss from ice discharge averaged 3.5 ± 0.2 Gt yr-1 (10%) versus 29.6 ± 3.0 Gt yr-1 (90%) from SMB. SMB processes therefore dominate the QEI mass balance, with ice dynamics playing a significant role only in a few basins.

Dynamic Inland Propagation of Thinning Due to Ice Loss at the Margins of the Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Wei Li; Li, Jun J.; Zwally, H. Jay

2012-01-01

Mass-balance analysis of the Greenland ice sheet based on surface elevation changes observed by the European Remote-sensing Satellite (ERS) (1992-2002) and Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) (2003-07) indicates that the strongly increased mass loss at lower elevations (<2000 m) of the ice sheet, as observed during 2003-07, appears to induce interior ice thinning at higher elevations. In this paper, we perform a perturbation experiment with a three-dimensional anisotropic ice-flow model (AIF model) to investigate this upstream propagation. Observed thinning rates in the regions below 2000m elevation are used as perturbation inputs. The model runs with perturbation for 10 years show that the extensive mass loss at the ice-sheet margins does in fact cause interior thinning on short timescales (i.e. decadal). The modeled pattern of thinning over the ice sheet agrees with the observations, which implies that the strong mass loss since the early 2000s at low elevations has had a dynamic impact on the entire ice sheet. The modeling results also suggest that even if the large mass loss at the margins stopped, the interior ice sheet would continue thinning for 300 years and would take thousands of years for full dynamic recovery.

Consistency and discrepancy in the atmospheric response to Arctic sea-ice loss across climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Screen, James A.; Deser, Clara; Smith, Doug M.; Zhang, Xiangdong; Blackport, Russell; Kushner, Paul J.; Oudar, Thomas; McCusker, Kelly E.; Sun, Lantao

2018-03-01

The decline of Arctic sea ice is an integral part of anthropogenic climate change. Sea-ice loss is already having a significant impact on Arctic communities and ecosystems. Its role as a cause of climate changes outside of the Arctic has also attracted much scientific interest. Evidence is mounting that Arctic sea-ice loss can affect weather and climate throughout the Northern Hemisphere. The remote impacts of Arctic sea-ice loss can only be properly represented using models that simulate interactions among the ocean, sea ice, land and atmosphere. A synthesis of six such experiments with different models shows consistent hemispheric-wide atmospheric warming, strongest in the mid-to-high-latitude lower troposphere; an intensification of the wintertime Aleutian Low and, in most cases, the Siberian High; a weakening of the Icelandic Low; and a reduction in strength and southward shift of the mid-latitude westerly winds in winter. The atmospheric circulation response seems to be sensitive to the magnitude and geographic pattern of sea-ice loss and, in some cases, to the background climate state. However, it is unclear whether current-generation climate models respond too weakly to sea-ice change. We advocate for coordinated experiments that use different models and observational constraints to quantify the climate response to Arctic sea-ice loss.

Ice2sea - the future glacial contribution to sea-level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vaughan, D. G.; Ice2sea Consortium

2009-04-01

The melting of continental ice (glaciers, ice caps and ice sheets) is a substantial source of current sea-level rise, and one that is accelerating more rapidly than was predicted even a few years ago. Indeed, the most recent report from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change highlighted that the uncertainty in projections of future sea-level rise is dominated by uncertainty concerning continental ice, and that understanding of the key processes that will lead to loss of continental ice must be improved before reliable projections of sea-level rise can be produced. Such projections are urgently required for effective sea-defence management and coastal adaptation planning. Ice2sea is a consortium of European institutes and international partners seeking European funding to support an integrated scientific programme to improve understanding concerning the future glacial contribution to sea-level rise. This includes improving understanding of the processes that control, past, current and future sea-level rise, and generation of improved estimates of the contribution of glacial components to sea-level rise over the next 200 years. The programme will include targeted studies of key processes in mountain glacier systems and ice caps (e.g. Svalbard), and in ice sheets in both polar regions (Greenland and Antarctica) to improve understanding of how these systems will respond to future climate change. It will include fieldwork and remote sensing studies, and develop a suite of new, cross-validated glacier and ice-sheet model. Ice2sea will deliver these results in forms accessible to scientists, policy-makers and the general public, which will include clear presentations of the sources of uncertainty. Our aim is both, to provide improved projections of the glacial contribution to sea-level rise, and to leave a legacy of improved tools and techniques that will form the basis of ongoing refinements in sea-level projection. Ice2sea will provide exciting opportunities for many early-career glaciologists and ice-modellers in a variety of host institutes.

The North Water Polynya and Velocity, Calving Front and Mass Change in Surrounding Glaciers in Greenland and Canada Over the Last 30 Years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Edwards, L.

2015-12-01

Major uncertainties surround future estimates of sea level rise attributable to mass loss from Greenland and the surrounding ice caps in Canada. Understanding changes across these regions is vital as their glaciers have experienced dramatic changes in recent times. Attention has focused on the periphery of these regions where land ice meets the ocean and where ice acceleration, thinning and increased calving have been observed. Polynyas are areas of open water within sea ice which remain unfrozen for much of the year. They vary significantly in size (~3 km2 to > ~85,000 km2 in the Arctic), recurrence rates and duration. Despite their relatively small size, polynyas strongly impact regional oceanography and play a vital role in heat and moisture exchange between the polar oceans and atmosphere. Where polynyas are present adjacent to tidewater glaciers their influence on ocean circulation and water temperatures has the potential to play a major part in controlling subsurface ice melt rates by impacting on the water masses reaching the calving front. They also have the potential to influence air masses reaching nearby glaciers and ice caps by creating a maritime climate which may impact on the glaciers' accumulation and surface melt and hence their thickness and mass balance. Polynya presence and size also have implications for sea ice extent and therefore may influence the buttressing effect on neighbouring tidewater glaciers. The work presented uses remote sensing and mass balance model data to study changes in the North Water polynya (extent, ice concentration, duration) and neighbouring glaciers and ice caps (velocities, calving front positions and mass balance) in Canada and Greenland over a period of approximately 30 years from the mid-1980s through to 2015.

How will melting of ice affect volcanic hazards in the twenty-first century?

PubMed

Tuffen, Hugh

2010-05-28

Glaciers and ice sheets on many active volcanoes are rapidly receding. There is compelling evidence that melting of ice during the last deglaciation triggered a dramatic acceleration in volcanic activity. Will melting of ice this century, which is associated with climate change, similarly affect volcanic activity and associated hazards? This paper provides a critical overview of the evidence that current melting of ice will increase the frequency or size of hazardous volcanic eruptions. Many aspects of the link between ice recession and accelerated volcanic activity remain poorly understood. Key questions include how rapidly volcanic systems react to melting of ice, whether volcanoes are sensitive to small changes in ice thickness and how recession of ice affects the generation, storage and eruption of magma at stratovolcanoes. A greater frequency of collapse events at glaciated stratovolcanoes can be expected in the near future, and there is strong potential for positive feedbacks between melting of ice and enhanced volcanism. Nonetheless, much further research is required to remove current uncertainties about the implications of climate change for volcanic hazards in the twenty-first century.

Reconstructing the evolution of a deep seated rockslide (Marzell) and its response to glacial retreat based on historic and remote sensing data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fey, Christine; Wichmann, Volker; Zangerl, Christian

2017-12-01

In this study a combination of different topographic data from historic topographic maps and remote sensing is used to reconstruct and monitor the behaviour of the high alpine ice contact rockslide system Marzell and its response to glacial debuttressing in the Eastern Alps. Topographic data from archives (historical topographic maps, national glacier inventories, aerial images, orthoimages and ALS data) and data from monitoring campaigns (geodetic measurements, terrestrial laser scanning and UAV imaging campaigns) are processed to georeferenced images and/or elevation data, respectively. The data from different data sources is compiled and analysed with the aim to i) reconstruct the extent, thickness and volume changes of the glacier since 1893 and ii) to analyse the rockslide deformation evolution by extracting information about the displacement direction, dip angle, velocity and partial failure of rockslide slabs since 1951. The rockslide is compound of different rockslide slabs which move downwards as rigid blocks along basal shear zones. The analyses and interpretation of the data suggest a rotational type of rockslide failure mechanisms. The rockslide activity correlates with the ice volume loss at the adjacent part of the glacier. In the period between 1971 and 1997 the annual average rockslide activity was about 0.05 m/a and the annual average ice thickness loss was 0.1 m/a. Since the end of the last century the annual average ice thickness loss increased dramatically to 5 m/a. In that period the rockslide activity accelerated. The highest rockslide activity (up to 1.5 m/a) was observed in the 2000s when half of the slope toe was exposed because of glacier retreat. Since 2010 a deceleration of the rockslide can be observed. In the vicinity of the rockslide the glacier almost disappeared and lost 99.88% of its ice volume between 1893 and 2014. The geomorphological and geological information gathered about the rockslide evolution and the glacier retreat form the base for further rockslide analyses and allow to study and model the influence from glacial debuttressing.

Reliability of Triaxial Accelerometry for Measuring Load in Men's Collegiate Ice Hockey.

PubMed

Van Iterson, Erik H; Fitzgerald, John S; Dietz, Calvin C; Snyder, Eric M; Peterson, Ben J

2017-05-01

Van Iterson, EH, Fitzgerald, JS, Dietz, CC, Snyder, EM, and Peterson, BJ. Reliability of triaxial accelerometry for measuring load in men's collegiate ice hockey. J Strength Cond Res 31(5): 1305-1312, 2017-Wearable microsensor technology incorporating triaxial accelerometry is used to quantify an index of mechanical stress associated with sport-specific movements termed PlayerLoad. The test-retest reliability of PlayerLoad in the environmental setting of ice hockey is unknown. The primary aim of this study was to quantify the test-retest reliability of PlayerLoad in ice hockey players during performance of tasks simulating game conditions. Division I collegiate male ice hockey players (N = 8) wore Catapult Optimeye S5 monitors during repeat performance of 9 ice hockey tasks simulating game conditions. Ordered ice hockey tasks during repeated bouts included acceleration (forward or backward), 60% top-speed, top-speed (forward or backward), repeated shift circuit, ice coasting, slap shot, and bench sitting. Coefficient of variation (CV), intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC), and minimum difference (MD) were used to assess PlayerLoad reliability. Test-retest CVs and ICCs of PlayerLoad were as follows: 8.6% and 0.54 for forward acceleration, 13.8% and 0.78 for backward acceleration, 2.2% and 0.96 for 60% top-speed, 7.5% and 0.79 for forward top-speed, 2.8% and 0.96 for backward top-speed, 26.6% and 0.95 for repeated shift test, 3.9% and 0.68 for slap shot, 3.7% and 0.98 for coasting, and 4.1% and 0.98 for bench sitting, respectively. Raw differences between bouts were not significant for ice hockey tasks (p > 0.05). For each task, between-bout raw differences were lower vs. MD: 0.06 vs. 0.35 (forward acceleration), 0.07 vs. 0.36 (backward acceleration), 0.00 vs. 0.06 (60% top-speed), 0.03 vs. 0.20 (forward top-speed), 0.02 vs. 0.09 (backward top-speed), 0.18 vs. 0.64 (repeated shift test), 0.02 vs. 0.10 (slap shot), 0.00 vs. 0.10 (coasting), and 0.01 vs. 0.11 (bench sitting), respectively. These data suggest that PlayerLoad demonstrates moderate-to-large test-retest reliability in the environmental setting of male Division I collegiate ice hockey. Without previously testing reliability, these data are important as PlayerLoad is routinely quantified in male collegiate ice hockey to assess on ice physical activity.

A tale of two polar bear populations: Ice habitat, harvest, and body condition

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rode, Karyn D.; Peacock, Elizabeth; Taylor, Mitchell K.; Stirling, Ian; Born, Erik W.; Laidre, Kristin L.; Wiig, Øystein

2012-01-01

One of the primary mechanisms by which sea ice loss is expected to affect polar bears is via reduced body condition and growth resulting from reduced access to prey. To date, negative effects of sea ice loss have been documented for two of 19 recognized populations. Effects of sea ice loss on other polar bear populations that differ in harvest rate, population density, and/or feeding ecology have been assumed, but empirical support, especially quantitative data on population size, demography, and/or body condition spanning two or more decades, have been lacking. We examined trends in body condition metrics of captured bears and relationships with summertime ice concentration between 1977 and 2010 for the Baffin Bay (BB) and Davis Strait (DS) polar bear populations. Polar bears in these regions occupy areas with annual sea ice that has decreased markedly starting in the 1990s. Despite differences in harvest rate, population density, sea ice concentration, and prey base, polar bears in both populations exhibited positive relationships between body condition and summertime sea ice cover during the recent period of sea ice decline. Furthermore, females and cubs exhibited relationships with sea ice that were not apparent during the earlier period (1977–1990s) when sea ice loss did not occur. We suggest that declining body condition in BB may be a result of recent declines in sea ice habitat. In DS, high population density and/or sea ice loss, may be responsible for the declines in body condition.

Multimodel Evidence for an Atmospheric Circulation Response to Arctic Sea Ice Loss in the CMIP5 Future Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zappa, G.; Pithan, F.; Shepherd, T. G.

2018-01-01

Previous single-model experiments have found that Arctic sea ice loss can influence the atmospheric circulation. To evaluate this process in a multimodel ensemble, a novel methodology is here presented and applied to infer the influence of Arctic sea ice loss in the CMIP5 future projections. Sea ice influence is estimated by comparing the circulation response in the RCP8.5 scenario against the circulation response to sea surface warming and CO2 increase inferred from the AMIPFuture and AMIP4xCO2 experiments, where sea ice is unperturbed. Multimodel evidence of the impact of sea ice loss on midlatitude atmospheric circulation is identified in late winter (January-March), when the sea ice-related surface heat flux perturbation is largest. Sea ice loss acts to suppress the projected poleward shift of the North Atlantic jet, to increase surface pressure in northern Siberia, and to lower it in North America. These features are consistent with previous single-model studies, and the present results indicate that they are robust to model formulation.

Identifying Climate Model Teleconnection Mechanisms Between Arctic Sea Ice Loss and Mid-Latitude Winter Storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kravitz, B.; Mills, C.; Rasch, P. J.; Wang, H.; Yoon, J. H.

2016-12-01

The role of Arctic amplification, including observed decreases in sea ice concentration, thickness, and extent, with potential for exciting downstream atmospheric responses in the mid-latitudes, is a timely issue. We identify the role of the regionality of autumn sea ice loss on downstream mid-latitude responses using engineering methodologies adapted to climate modeling, which allow for multiple Arctic sea regions to be perturbed simultaneously. We evaluate downstream responses in various climate fields (e.g., temperature, precipitation, cloud cover) associated with perturbations in the Beaufort/Chukchi Seas and the Kara/Barents Seas. Simulations suggest that the United States response is primarily linked to sea ice changes in the Beaufort/Chukchi Seas, whereas Eurasian response is primarily due to Kara/Barents sea ice coverage changes. Downstream effects are most prominent approximately 6-10 weeks after the initial perturbation (sea ice loss). Our findings suggest that winter mid-latitude storms (connected to the so-called "Polar Vortex") are linked to sea ice loss in particular areas, implying that further sea ice loss associated with climate change will exacerbate these types of extreme events.

Multimodel Evidence for an Atmospheric Circulation Response to Arctic Sea Ice Loss in the CMIP5 Future Projections.

PubMed

Zappa, G; Pithan, F; Shepherd, T G

2018-01-28

Previous single-model experiments have found that Arctic sea ice loss can influence the atmospheric circulation. To evaluate this process in a multimodel ensemble, a novel methodology is here presented and applied to infer the influence of Arctic sea ice loss in the CMIP5 future projections. Sea ice influence is estimated by comparing the circulation response in the RCP8.5 scenario against the circulation response to sea surface warming and CO 2 increase inferred from the AMIPFuture and AMIP4xCO2 experiments, where sea ice is unperturbed. Multimodel evidence of the impact of sea ice loss on midlatitude atmospheric circulation is identified in late winter (January-March), when the sea ice-related surface heat flux perturbation is largest. Sea ice loss acts to suppress the projected poleward shift of the North Atlantic jet, to increase surface pressure in northern Siberia, and to lower it in North America. These features are consistent with previous single-model studies, and the present results indicate that they are robust to model formulation.

Accelerating Thermokarst Transforms Ice-Cored Terrain Triggering a Downstream Cascade to the Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rudy, A. C. A.; Lamoureux, S. F.; Kokelj, S. V.; Smith, I. R.; England, J. H.

2017-11-01

Recent climate warming has activated the melt-out of relict massive ice in permafrost-preserved moraines throughout the western Canadian Arctic. This ice that has persisted since the last glaciation, buried beneath as little as 1 m of overburden, is now undergoing accelerated permafrost degradation and thermokarst. Here we document recent and intensifying thermokarst activity on eastern Banks Island that has increased the fluvial transport of sediments and solutes to the ocean. Isotopic evidence demonstrates that a major contribution to discharge is melt of relict ground ice, resulting in a significant hydrological input from thermokarst augmenting summer runoff. Accelerated thermokarst is transforming the landscape and the summer hydrological regime and altering the timing of terrestrial to marine and lacustrine transfers over significant areas of the western Canadian Arctic. The intensity of the landscape changes demonstrates that regions of cold, continuous permafrost are undergoing irreversible alteration, unprecedented since deglaciation ( 13 cal kyr B.P.).

New marine geophysical and sediment record of the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Callard, L.; Roberts, D. H.; O'Cofaigh, C.; Lloyd, J. M.; Smith, J. A.; Dorschel, B.

2017-12-01

The NE Greenland Ice Stream (NEGIS) drains 16% of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) and has a sea-level equivalent of 1.1-1.4 m. Stabilised by two floating ice shelves, 79N and Zachariae Isstrom, until recently it has shown little response to increased atmospheric and oceanic warming. However, since 2010 it has experienced an accelerated rate of grounding line retreat ( 4 km) and significant ice shelf loss that indicates that this sector of the GrIS is now responding to current oceanic and/or climatic change and has the potential to be a major contributor to future global sea-level rise. The project `NEGIS', a collaboration between Durham University and AWI, aims to reconstruct the history of the NE Greenland Ice Stream from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to present using both onshore and offshore geological archives to better understand past ice stream response to a warming climate. This contribution presents results and interpretations from an offshore dataset collected on the RV Polarstern, cruises PS100 and PS109 in 2016 and 2017. Gravity and box cores, supplemented by swath bathymetric and sub-bottom profiler data, were acquired and initial core analysis including x-radiographs and MSCL data logging has been performed. Data collection focused principally in the Norske Trough and the area directly in front of the 79N ice shelf, a sub-ice shelf environment as recently as two years ago. On the outer shelf streamlined subglacial bedforms, grounding-zone wedges and moraines as well as overconsolidated subglacial tills, record an extensive ice sheet advance to the shelf edge. On the inner shelf and in front of the 79N ice shelf, deep, glacially-eroded bedrock basins are infilled with stratified sediment. The stratified muds represent deglacial and Holocene glacimarine sedimentation, and capture the recent transition from sub-ice shelf to shelf free conditions. Multiproxy palaeoenvironmental reconstructions, including foraminifera and diatom analysis, and radiocarbon dating are used to constrain the timing and mechanism of retreat.

Greenland ice sheet motion insensitive to exceptional meltwater forcing.

PubMed

Tedstone, Andrew J; Nienow, Peter W; Sole, Andrew J; Mair, Douglas W F; Cowton, Thomas R; Bartholomew, Ian D; King, Matt A

2013-12-03

Changes to the dynamics of the Greenland ice sheet can be forced by various mechanisms including surface-melt-induced ice acceleration and oceanic forcing of marine-terminating glaciers. We use observations of ice motion to examine the surface melt-induced dynamic response of a land-terminating outlet glacier in southwest Greenland to the exceptional melting observed in 2012. During summer, meltwater generated on the Greenland ice sheet surface accesses the ice sheet bed, lubricating basal motion and resulting in periods of faster ice flow. However, the net impact of varying meltwater volumes upon seasonal and annual ice flow, and thus sea level rise, remains unclear. We show that two extreme melt events (98.6% of the Greenland ice sheet surface experienced melting on July 12, the most significant melt event since 1889, and 79.2% on July 29) and summer ice sheet runoff ~3.9 σ above the 1958-2011 mean resulted in enhanced summer ice motion relative to the average melt year of 2009. However, despite record summer melting, subsequent reduced winter ice motion resulted in 6% less net annual ice motion in 2012 than in 2009. Our findings suggest that surface melt-induced acceleration of land-terminating regions of the ice sheet will remain insignificant even under extreme melting scenarios.

Polychlorinated Biphenyls in a Temperate Alpine Glacier: 1. Effect of Percolating Meltwater on their Distribution in Glacier Ice.

PubMed

Pavlova, Pavlina Aneva; Jenk, Theo Manuel; Schmid, Peter; Bogdal, Christian; Steinlin, Christine; Schwikowski, Margit

2015-12-15

In Alpine regions, glaciers act as environmental archives and can accumulate significant amounts of atmospherically derived pollutants. Due to the current climate-warming-induced accelerated melting, these pollutants are being released at correspondingly higher rates. To examine the effect of melting on the redistribution of legacy pollutants in Alpine glaciers, we analyzed polychlorinated biphenyls in an ice core from the temperate Silvretta glacier, located in eastern Switzerland. This glacier is affected by surface melting in summer. As a result, liquid water percolates down and particles are enriched in the current annual surface layer. Dating the ice core was a challenge because meltwater percolation also affects the traditionally used parameters. Instead, we counted annual layers of particulate black carbon in the ice core, adding the years with negative glacier mass balance, that is, years with melting and subsequent loss of the entire annual snow accumulation. The analyzed samples cover the time period 1930-2011. The concentration of indicator PCBs (iPCBs) in the Silvretta ice core follows the emission history, peaking in the 1970s (2.5 ng/L). High PCB values in the 1990s and 1930s are attributed to meltwater-induced relocation within the glacier. The total iPCB load at the Silvretta ice core site is 5 ng/cm(2). A significant amount of the total PCB burden in the Silvretta glacier has been released to the environment.

Challenges for understanding Antarctic surface hydrology and ice-shelf stability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kingslake, J.; Bell, R. E.; Banwell, A. F.; Boghosian, A.; Spergel, J.; Trusel, L. D.

2017-12-01

It is widely hypothesized that surface meltwater can contribute to ice mass loss in Antarctica through its impact on ice-shelf stability. Meltwater potentially expedites ice-shelf calving by flowing into and enlarging existing crevasses, and could even trigger ice-shelf disintegration via stresses generated by melt ponds. When ice shelves collapse, the adjacent grounded ice accelerates and thins, which contributes to sea-level rise. How these mechanisms mediate the interactions between the atmosphere, the ocean and the ice sheet is the subject of long-standing research efforts. The drainage of water across the surface of the Antarctic Ice Sheet and its ice shelves is beginning to be recognized as another important aspect of the system. Recent studies have revealed that surface meltwater drainage is more widespread than previously thought and that surface hydrological systems in Antarctica may expand and proliferate this century. Contrasting hypotheses regarding the impact of the proliferation of drainage systems on ice-shelf stability have emerged. Surface drainage could deliver meltwater to vulnerable area or export meltwater from ice shelves entirely. Which behavior dominates may have a large impact on the future response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to atmospheric warming. We will discuss these recent discoveries and hypotheses, as well as new detailed studies of specific areas where hydrological systems are well developed, such as Amery and Nimrod Ice Shelves. We will highlight analogies that can be drawn with Greenlandic (near-)surface hydrology and, crucially, where hydrological systems on the two ice sheets are very different, leading to potentially important gaps in our understanding. Finally, we will look ahead to the key questions that we argue will need to be if we are to determine the role Antarctic surface hydrology could play in the future of the ice sheet. These include: Where does meltwater pond today and how will this change this century? What coupled glaciological-hydrological dynamics control how drainage systems will change as melt rates increase this century? How do we incorporate surface hydrology into ice-sheet models? While we may be currently unable to answer these and related questions, we aim to start the discussion on how the community can move towards answering them in the future.

Ice Melt, Sea Level Rise and Superstorms: Evidence from Paleoclimate Data, Climate Modeling, and Modern Observations that 2C Global Warming Could Be Dangerous

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hansen, J.; Sato, Makiko; Hearty, Paul; Ruedy, Reto; Kelley, Maxwell; Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Russell, Gary; Tselioudis, George; Cao, Junji; Rignot, Eric;

Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 °C global warming could be dangerous

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Hearty, Paul; Ruedy, Reto; Kelley, Maxwell; Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Russell, Gary; Tselioudis, George; Cao, Junji; Rignot, Eric; Velicogna, Isabella; Tormey, Blair; Donovan, Bailey; Kandiano, Evgeniya; von Schuckmann, Karina; Kharecha, Pushker; Legrande, Allegra N.; Bauer, Michael; Lo, Kwok-Wai

2016-03-01

We use numerical climate simulations, paleoclimate data, and modern observations to study the effect of growing ice melt from Antarctica and Greenland. Meltwater tends to stabilize the ocean column, inducing amplifying feedbacks that increase subsurface ocean warming and ice shelf melting. Cold meltwater and induced dynamical effects cause ocean surface cooling in the Southern Ocean and North Atlantic, thus increasing Earth's energy imbalance and heat flux into most of the global ocean's surface. Southern Ocean surface cooling, while lower latitudes are warming, increases precipitation on the Southern Ocean, increasing ocean stratification, slowing deepwater formation, and increasing ice sheet mass loss. These feedbacks make ice sheets in contact with the ocean vulnerable to accelerating disintegration. We hypothesize that ice mass loss from the most vulnerable ice, sufficient to raise sea level several meters, is better approximated as exponential than by a more linear response. Doubling times of 10, 20 or 40 years yield multi-meter sea level rise in about 50, 100 or 200 years. Recent ice melt doubling times are near the lower end of the 10-40-year range, but the record is too short to confirm the nature of the response. The feedbacks, including subsurface ocean warming, help explain paleoclimate data and point to a dominant Southern Ocean role in controlling atmospheric CO2, which in turn exercised tight control on global temperature and sea level. The millennial (500-2000-year) timescale of deep-ocean ventilation affects the timescale for natural CO2 change and thus the timescale for paleo-global climate, ice sheet, and sea level changes, but this paleo-millennial timescale should not be misinterpreted as the timescale for ice sheet response to a rapid, large, human-made climate forcing. These climate feedbacks aid interpretation of events late in the prior interglacial, when sea level rose to +6-9 m with evidence of extreme storms while Earth was less than 1 °C warmer than today. Ice melt cooling of the North Atlantic and Southern oceans increases atmospheric temperature gradients, eddy kinetic energy and baroclinicity, thus driving more powerful storms. The modeling, paleoclimate evidence, and ongoing observations together imply that 2 °C global warming above the preindustrial level could be dangerous. Continued high fossil fuel emissions this century are predicted to yield (1) cooling of the Southern Ocean, especially in the Western Hemisphere; (2) slowing of the Southern Ocean overturning circulation, warming of the ice shelves, and growing ice sheet mass loss; (3) slowdown and eventual shutdown of the Atlantic overturning circulation with cooling of the North Atlantic region; (4) increasingly powerful storms; and (5) nonlinearly growing sea level rise, reaching several meters over a timescale of 50-150 years. These predictions, especially the cooling in the Southern Ocean and North Atlantic with markedly reduced warming or even cooling in Europe, differ fundamentally from existing climate change assessments. We discuss observations and modeling studies needed to refute or clarify these assertions.

The evolving instability of the remnant Larsen B Ice Shelf and its tributary glaciers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khazendar, Ala; Borstad, Christopher P.; Scheuchl, Bernd; Rignot, Eric; Seroussi, Helene

2015-06-01

Following the 2002 disintegration of the northern and central parts of the Larsen B Ice Shelf, the tributary glaciers of the southern surviving part initially appeared relatively unchanged and hence assumed to be buttressed sufficiently by the remnant ice shelf. Here, we modify this perception with observations from IceBridge altimetry and InSAR-inferred ice flow speeds. Our analyses show that the surfaces of Leppard and Flask glaciers directly upstream from their grounding lines lowered by 15 to 20 m in the period 2002-2011. The thinning appears to be dynamic as the flow of both glaciers and the remnant ice shelf accelerated in the same period. Flask Glacier started accelerating even before the 2002 disintegration, increasing its flow speed by ∼55% between 1997 and 2012. Starbuck Glacier meanwhile did not change much. We hypothesize that the different evolutions of the three glaciers are related to their dissimilar bed topographies and degrees of grounding. We apply numerical modeling and data assimilation that show these changes to be accompanied by a reduction in the buttressing afforded by the remnant ice shelf, a weakening of the shear zones between its flow units and an increase in its fracture. The fast flowing northwestern part of the remnant ice shelf exhibits increasing fragmentation, while the stagnant southeastern part seems to be prone to the formation of large rifts, some of which we show have delimited successive calving events. A large rift only 12 km downstream from the grounding line is currently traversing the stagnant part of the ice shelf, defining the likely front of the next large calving event. We propose that the flow acceleration, ice front retreat and enhanced fracture of the remnant Larsen B Ice Shelf presage its approaching demise.

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Mass balance of Graham Land at present-day and over the past 150 years using GRACE and GNSS station data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ivins, E. R.; Wiese, D. N.; Watkins, M. M.; Landerer, F. W.; Simms, A.; Yuan, D. N.; Boening, C.; Domack, E. W.

2014-12-01

The Antarctic Peninsula has been warming at an anomalously high rate with respect to other parts of the globe for the past 115 years. The increased atmospheric and ocean warmth has caused both increased precipitation and loss of buttressing near the trunks of the numerous outlet glaciers that drain into the ocean. The measurements by space gravimetry (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment or 'GRACE') have been crucial to identifying the dominant role of losses in butressing in a decadal-scale total ice mass budget for the Peninsula north of about 69 °S. One of the major losses of butressing came at a time when the Larsen B Ice Shelf catastrophically disintegrated into the northernmost Weddell Sea in March of 2002, the same month that GRACE was launched into orbit. The solid Earth rebounded in phase with the speed-up of the unbutressed outlet glaciers as evidenced by GNSS station data. The process has been repeating itself throughout the northern Peninsula since the late 1980's. Larsen A Ice Shelf breakup (LAISb) occurred, for example, in the Austral summer of 1993. Rott et al. (2011) have estimated a velocity acceleration at the trunks of 11 LBISb outlet glaciers for which flux-gate mass transport can be measured. Butress loss caused an increase in discharge of 4.3 ± 1.6 Gt/a in 2008, relative to measurements that span 1995-1999 for 11 Larsen B feeding glaciers. GRACE analysis centers have now released 12 years of monthly solutions (RL05) for global mass change. Solutions for the region of the Peninsula north of 69 ° S (Graham Land) using both constrained and unconstrained mascon methods show 2003-2011 net ice loss to the oceans with a trend of greater than 32 Gt/yr (Ivins et al., 2011; Luthcke et al., 2013). A new set of mascon solutions developed by JPL (Wiese et al., 2014) provide a high-resolution look at the evolution of mass in the Antarctic Peninsula from 2003-2014. We employ a time-series from these solutions and discuss the evolution of mass changes over the past 12-150 years, the GNSS uplift rates and the GIA correction that can be retrieved from modeling. The solutions for Graham Land yield a trend of -29.8 ± 4.8 Gt/yr using a GIA correction of 6.9 ± 1.0 Gt/yr. We infer that much of this mass loss began at least 50 years ago, and we attempt to quantify this ice mass history as it drives a substantial viscoelastic flow in the mantle.

Neutron Production from In-situ Heavy Ice Coated Targets at Vulcan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morrison, John; Krygier, A. G.; Kar, S.; Ahmed, H.; Alejo, A.; Clarke, R.; Fuchs, J.; Green, A.; Jung, D.; Kleinschmidt, A.; Najmudin, Z.; Nakamura, H.; Norreys, P.; Notley, M.; Oliver, M.; Roth, M.; Vassura, L.; Zepf, M.; Borghesi, M.; Freeman, R. R.

2015-05-01

Laser based neutron production experiments have been performed utilizing ultra-high intensity laser accelerated ions impinging upon a secondary target. The neutron yield from such experiments may be improved if the accelerated ions were primarily deuterons taking advantage of the d-d cross section. Recent experiments have demonstrated that selective deuteron acceleration from in-situ heavy ice coating of targets can produce ion spectra where deuterons comprise > 99 % of the measured ions. Results will be presented from integrated neutron production experiments from heavy ice targets coated in-situ recently performed on the Vulcan laser at Rutherford Appleton Laboratory. We are grateful for the Staff at RAL and acknowledge funding from the US DoE. AFOSR, European Social Fund, and the Czech Republic.

Recent Antarctic Peninsula warming relative to Holocene climate and ice-shelf history.

PubMed

Mulvaney, Robert; Abram, Nerilie J; Hindmarsh, Richard C A; Arrowsmith, Carol; Fleet, Louise; Triest, Jack; Sime, Louise C; Alemany, Olivier; Foord, Susan

2012-09-06

Rapid warming over the past 50 years on the Antarctic Peninsula is associated with the collapse of a number of ice shelves and accelerating glacier mass loss. In contrast, warming has been comparatively modest over West Antarctica and significant changes have not been observed over most of East Antarctica, suggesting that the ice-core palaeoclimate records available from these areas may not be representative of the climate history of the Antarctic Peninsula. Here we show that the Antarctic Peninsula experienced an early-Holocene warm period followed by stable temperatures, from about 9,200 to 2,500 years ago, that were similar to modern-day levels. Our temperature estimates are based on an ice-core record of deuterium variations from James Ross Island, off the northeastern tip of the Antarctic Peninsula. We find that the late-Holocene development of ice shelves near James Ross Island was coincident with pronounced cooling from 2,500 to 600 years ago. This cooling was part of a millennial-scale climate excursion with opposing anomalies on the eastern and western sides of the Antarctic Peninsula. Although warming of the northeastern Antarctic Peninsula began around 600 years ago, the high rate of warming over the past century is unusual (but not unprecedented) in the context of natural climate variability over the past two millennia. The connection shown here between past temperature and ice-shelf stability suggests that warming for several centuries rendered ice shelves on the northeastern Antarctic Peninsula vulnerable to collapse. Continued warming to temperatures that now exceed the stable conditions of most of the Holocene epoch is likely to cause ice-shelf instability to encroach farther southward along the Antarctic Peninsula.

Seasonal speed-up of two outlet glaciers of Austfonna, Svalbard, inferred from continuous GPS measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dunse, T.; Schuler, T. V.; Hagen, J. O.; Reijmer, C. H.

2011-12-01

A large part of the ice discharge from ice caps and ice sheets occurs through spatially limited flow units that may operate in a mode of steady flow or cyclic surge behaviour. Changes in the dynamics of distinct flow units play a key role in the mass balance of Austfonna, the largest ice cap on Svalbard. The recent net mass loss of Austfonna was dominated by calving from marine terminating outlet glaciers. Previous ice-surface velocity maps of the ice cap were derived by satellite radar interferometry (InSAR) and rely on data acquired in the mid-1990s with limited information concerning the temporal variability. Here, we present continuous Global Positioning System (GPS) observations along the central flowlines of two fast flowing outlet glaciers over 2008-2010. The data show prominent summer speed-ups with ice-surface velocities as high as 240 % of the pre-summer mean. Acceleration follows the onset of the summer melt period, indicating enhanced basal motion due to input of surface meltwater into the subglacial drainage system. In 2008, multiple velocity peaks coincide with successive melt periods. In 2009, the principle melt was of higher amplitude than in 2008. Flow velocities appear unaffected by subsequent melt periods, suggesting a transition towards a hydraulically more efficient drainage system. The observed annual mean velocities of Duvebreen and Basin-3 exceed those from the mid-1990s by factors two and four, respectively, implying increased ice discharge at the calving front. Measured summer velocities up to 2 m d-1 for Basin-3 are close to that of Kronebreen, often referred to as the fastest glacier on Svalbard.

Invariant polar bear habitat selection during a period of sea ice loss

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilson, Ryan R.; Regehr, Eric V.; Rode, Karyn D.; St Martin, Michelle

2016-01-01

Climate change is expected to alter many species' habitat. A species' ability to adjust to these changes is partially determined by their ability to adjust habitat selection preferences to new environmental conditions. Sea ice loss has forced polar bears (Ursus maritimus) to spend longer periods annually over less productive waters, which may be a primary driver of population declines. A negative population response to greater time spent over less productive water implies, however, that prey are not also shifting their space use in response to sea ice loss. We show that polar bear habitat selection in the Chukchi Sea has not changed between periods before and after significant sea ice loss, leading to a 75% reduction of highly selected habitat in summer. Summer was the only period with loss of highly selected habitat, supporting the contention that summer will be a critical period for polar bears as sea ice loss continues. Our results indicate that bears are either unable to shift selection patterns to reflect new prey use patterns or that there has not been a shift towards polar basin waters becoming more productive for prey. Continued sea ice loss is likely to further reduce habitat with population-level consequences for polar bears.

The missing Northern European winter cooling response to Arctic sea ice loss

PubMed Central

Screen, James A.

2017-01-01

Reductions in Arctic sea ice may promote the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO−). It has been argued that NAO-related variability can be used an as analogue to predict the effects of Arctic sea ice loss on mid-latitude weather. As NAO− events are associated with colder winters over Northern Europe, a negatively shifted NAO has been proposed as a dynamical pathway for Arctic sea ice loss to cause Northern European cooling. This study uses large-ensemble atmospheric simulations with prescribed ocean surface conditions to examine how seasonal-scale NAO− events are affected by Arctic sea ice loss. Despite an intensification of NAO− events, reflected by more prevalent easterly flow, sea ice loss does not lead to Northern European winter cooling and daily cold extremes actually decrease. The dynamical cooling from the changed NAO is ‘missing', because it is offset (or exceeded) by a thermodynamical effect owing to advection of warmer air masses. PMID:28262679

Monitoring Jakobshavn Glacier using Sequential Landsat Images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jian, Z.; Zhuoqi, C.; Cheng, X.

2016-12-01

Jakobshavn Glacier is the fastest (19 m per day) and one of the most active glaciers around the world. Discharging more than 35km3 of ice every year, its mass loss surpasses anyone else outside the Antarctic. From Landsat 8 OLI Images on August 14, 2015, we find a huge iceberg about 5 km2 calved from resulting in the front shrinking for 1060.8m. NSIDC ice velocity data and weather station data on Jakobshavn glacier are used to analyze the cause of calving. On one hand, upstream glacier push forward the Jakobshavn glacier westward continually, many cracks were formed over the glacier surface. Surface melting water flow into the interior of glaciers to accelerate calving. On the other hand with the gradually rising temperature, the bottom of glaciers accelerate ablation. When glaciers move into the ocean and the thin bottom can not provide strong enough support, calving occurs. Before this incident, we trace sequential Landsat data during 1986 to 2015. In 2010, it had another large-scale calving. We draw from our data that Jakobshavn retreated intensely in the past 30 years although in the last 10 years it appears more stable. The speed of glacier shrinking during 1996 to 2006 is three times as fast as past 10 years.

Micromechanics of ice friction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sammonds, P. R.; Bailey, E.; Lishman, B.; Scourfield, S.

2015-12-01

Frictional mechanics are controlled by the ice micro-structure - surface asperities and flaws - but also the ice fabric and permeability network structure of the contacting blocks. Ice properties are dependent upon the temperature of the bulk ice, on the normal stress and on the sliding velocity and acceleration. This means the shear stress required for sliding is likewise dependent on sliding velocity, acceleration, and temperature. We aim to describe the micro-physics of the contacting surface. We review micro-mechanical models of friction: the elastic and ductile deformation of asperities under normal loads and their shear failure by ductile flow, brittle fracture, or melting and hydrodynamic lubrication. Combinations of these give a total of six rheological models of friction. We present experimental results in ice mechanics and physics from laboratory experiments to understand the mechanical models. We then examine the scaling relations of the slip of ice, to examine how the micro-mechanics of ice friction can be captured simple reduced-parameter models, describing the mechanical state and slip rate of the floes. We aim to capture key elements that they may be incorporated into mid and ocean-basin scale modelling.

Acquisition of Ice Thickness and Ice Surface Characteristics in the Seasonal Ice Zone by CULPIS-X during the US Coast Guard’s Arctic Domain Awareness Program

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-30

OBJECTIVES • What is the volume of sea ice in the Beaufort Sea Seasonal Ice Zone (SIZ) and how does this evolve during summer as the ice edge...retreats? Recent observations suggest that the remaining ice in the Beaufort Sea is younger and thinner in recent years in part because even the oldest...surrounding ice . Recent analyses have indicated that ponds on thinner ice are often darker, accelerating the ice - albedo feedback over thin ice in summer

Precipitation Impacts of a Shrinking Arctic Sea Ice Cover

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stroeve, J. C.; Frei, A.; Gong, G.; Ghatak, D.; Robinson, D. A.; Kindig, D.

2009-12-01

Since the beginning of the modern satellite record in October 1978, the extent of Arctic sea ice has declined in all months, with the strongest downward trend at the end of the melt season in September. Recently the September trends have accelerated. Through 2001, the extent of September sea ice was decreasing at a rate of -7 per cent per decade. By 2006, the rate of decrease had risen to -8.9 per cent per decade. In September 2007, Arctic sea ice extent fell to its lowest level recorded, 23 per cent below the previous record set in 2005, boosting the downward trend to -10.7 per cent per decade. Ice extent in September 2008 was the second lowest in the satellite record. Including 2008, the trend in September sea ice extent stands at -11.8 percent per decade. Compared to the 1970s, September ice extent has retreated by 40 per cent. Summer 2009 looks to repeat the anomalously low ice conditions that characterized the last couple of years. Scientists have long expected that a shrinking Arctic sea ice cover will lead to strong warming of the overlying atmosphere, and as a result, affect atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns. Recent results show clear evidence of Arctic warming linked to declining ice extent, yet observational evidence for responses of atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns is just beginning to emerge. Rising air temperatures should lead to an increase in the moisture holding capacity of the atmosphere, with the potential to impact autumn precipitation. Although climate models predict a hemispheric wide decrease in snow cover as atmospheric concentrations of GHGs increase, increased precipitation, particular in autumn and winter may result as the Arctic transitions towards a seasonally ice free state. In this study we use atmospheric reanalysis data and a cyclone tracking algorithm to investigate the influence of recent extreme ice loss years on precipitation patterns in the Arctic and the Northern Hemisphere. Results show enhanced cyclone associated precipitation in autumn over Siberia for anomalously low ice years compared with anomalously high ice years along with a strengthening of the North Atlantic Storm track.

Local processes and regional patterns - Interpreting a multi-decadal altimetry record of Greenland Ice Sheet changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Csatho, B. M.; Schenk, A. F.; Babonis, G. S.; van den Broeke, M. R.; Kuipers Munneke, P.; van der Veen, C. J.; Khan, S. A.; Porter, D. F.

2016-12-01

This study presents a new, comprehensive reconstruction of Greenland Ice Sheet elevation changes, generated using the Surface Elevation And Change detection (SERAC) approach. 35-year long elevation-change time series (1980-2015) were obtained at more than 150,000 locations from observations acquired by NASA's airborne and spaceborne laser altimeters (ATM, LVIS, ICESat), PROMICE laser altimetry data (2007-2011) and a DEM covering the ice sheet margin derived from stereo aerial photographs (1970s-80s). After removing the effect of Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) and the elastic crustal response to changes in ice loading, the time series were partitioned into changes due to surface processes and ice dynamics and then converted into mass change histories. Using gridded products, we examined ice sheet elevation, and mass change patterns, and compared them with other estimates at different scales from individual outlet glaciers through large drainage basins, on to the entire ice sheet. Both the SERAC time series and the grids derived from these time series revealed significant spatial and temporal variations of dynamic mass loss and widespread intermittent thinning, indicating the complexity of ice sheet response to climate forcing. To investigate the regional and local controls of ice dynamics, we examined thickness change time series near outlet glacier grounding lines. Changes on most outlet glaciers were consistent with one or more episodes of dynamic thinning that propagates upstream from the glacier terminus. The spatial pattern of the onset, duration, and termination of these dynamic thinning events suggest a regional control, such as warming ocean and air temperatures. However, the intricate spatiotemporal pattern of dynamic thickness change suggests that, regardless of the forcing responsible for initial glacier acceleration and thinning, the response of individual glaciers is modulated by local conditions. We use statistical methods, such as principal component analysis and multivariate regression to analyze the dynamic ice-thickness change time series derived by SERAC and to investigate the primary forcings and controls on outlet glacier changes.

Forty years of change: a northern Alaskan seabird's response to a warming Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Divoky, G.; Suydam, R.

2012-12-01

While recent decadal-scale decreases in the snow and ice habitats of the Arctic are well documented, there are few concurrent long-term biological data sets, especially for species dependent on the cryopelagic ecosystem associated with arctic sea ice. The Black Guillemot (Cepphus grylle mandti), a marine apex predator specializing on prey associated with arctic pack ice has been studied annually since 1975 at a colony on Cooper Island, 35 km east of Point Barrow, Alaska. Over the last four decades critical components of the species' life history have been found to be sensitive to a number of physical and biological effects associated with the region's increasing atmospheric temperatures. Black Guillemots first colonized northern Alaska in the late 1960s and early 1970s as the annual snow-free period increased sufficiently to allow access to nesting cavities for the 80 days required to successfully raise young. At the Cooper Island colony abundance increased during the 1970s and 1980s as summer length continued to increase and wooden nest cavities were provided to increase sample size for monitoring. During this time breeding success was high as summer sea ice remained in the 30-km foraging range of guillemot parents, providing Arctic Cod (Boreogadus saida), the principal forage fish associated with sea ice and the preferred prey of Black Guillemots. Decreasing summer sea ice extent in the 1990s that accelerated in the last decade reduced the guillemots' access to cryopelagic prey during the critical period when parents are provisioning nestlings. Distance from the colony to the pack ice on 15 August averaged <25 km from 1975-2002 but increased to an average of >100 km from 2003-2011. This ice retreat had a major affect on Arctic Cod availability, causing parent guillemots to shift to lower quality benthic fish resulting in decreases in nestling quality and breeding success when sea ice had retreated and SST was > 4o C. Increasing loss of summer ice in the last decade also facilitated changes in the distribution of a guillemot nest competitor and nest predator resulting in major losses of eggs and young. Horned Puffins (Fratercula corniculata) recently expanded their breeding range from the subarctic to northern Alaska and regularly disrupt guillemot nesting by displacing eggs and killing guillemot nestlings while prospecting for nest sites. Polar Bears (Ursus maritimus), rare on Cooper Island until 2002 are now seen regularly in August as they seek refuge on land and prey on guillemot young. While the loss of cryopelagic prey led to reductions in the guillemot population, the loss of eggs and nestlings to puffins and bears was severe enough to threaten the existence of the colony. In 2011 all nest sites at the colony were replaced with plastic nest cases that eliminate disturbance by bears and puffins. Upper trophic level predators are recognized as important indicators of variation in and perturbations to marine ecosystems and in the near future the waters of the western Arctic will be experiencing a range of alterations due to both atmospheric warming and industrial development. The ongoing research at the Cooper Island Black Guillemot colony, combined with its historic database. will allow assessment of those changes.

Remarkable separability of circulation response to Arctic sea ice loss and greenhouse gas forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCusker, K. E.; Kushner, P. J.; Fyfe, J. C.; Sigmond, M.; Kharin, V. V.; Bitz, C. M.

2017-08-01

Arctic sea ice loss may influence midlatitude climate by changing large-scale circulation. The extent to which climate change can be understood as greenhouse gas-induced changes that are modulated by this loss depends on how additive the responses to the separate influences are. A novel sea ice nudging methodology in a fully coupled climate model reveals that the separate effects of doubled atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations and associated Arctic sea ice loss are remarkably additive and insensitive to the mean climate state. This separability is evident in several fields throughout most of the year, from hemispheric to synoptic scales. The extent to which the regional response to sea ice loss sometimes agrees with and sometimes cancels the response to CO2 is quantified. The separability of the responses might provide a means to better interpret the diverse array of modeling and observational studies of Arctic change and influence.

Observed Arctic sea-ice loss directly follows anthropogenic CO2 emission.

PubMed

Notz, Dirk; Stroeve, Julienne

2016-11-11

Arctic sea ice is retreating rapidly, raising prospects of a future ice-free Arctic Ocean during summer. Because climate-model simulations of the sea-ice loss differ substantially, we used a robust linear relationship between monthly-mean September sea-ice area and cumulative carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions to infer the future evolution of Arctic summer sea ice directly from the observational record. The observed linear relationship implies a sustained loss of 3 ± 0.3 square meters of September sea-ice area per metric ton of CO 2 emission. On the basis of this sensitivity, Arctic sea ice will be lost throughout September for an additional 1000 gigatons of CO 2 emissions. Most models show a lower sensitivity, which is possibly linked to an underestimation of the modeled increase in incoming longwave radiation and of the modeled transient climate response. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Acquisition of Ice Thickness and Ice Surface Characteristics in the Seasonal Ice Zone by CULPIS-X During the US Coast Guard’s Arctic Domain Awareness Program

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-09-30

What is the volume of sea ice in the Beaufort Sea SIZ and how does this evolve during summer as the ice edge retreats? Recent observations...suggest that the remaining ice in the Beaufort Sea is younger and thinner in recent years in part because even the oldest ice advected into the region does...indicated that ponds on thinner ice are often darker, accelerating the ice - albedo feedback over thin ice in summer. During winter, leads and very

Greenland ice sheet mass balance: a review.

PubMed

Khan, Shfaqat A; Aschwanden, Andy; Bjørk, Anders A; Wahr, John; Kjeldsen, Kristian K; Kjær, Kurt H

2015-04-01

Over the past quarter of a century the Arctic has warmed more than any other region on Earth, causing a profound impact on the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) and its contribution to the rise in global sea level. The loss of ice can be partitioned into processes related to surface mass balance and to ice discharge, which are forced by internal or external (atmospheric/oceanic/basal) fluctuations. Regardless of the measurement method, observations over the last two decades show an increase in ice loss rate, associated with speeding up of glaciers and enhanced melting. However, both ice discharge and melt-induced mass losses exhibit rapid short-term fluctuations that, when extrapolated into the future, could yield erroneous long-term trends. In this paper we review the GrIS mass loss over more than a century by combining satellite altimetry, airborne altimetry, interferometry, aerial photographs and gravimetry data sets together with modelling studies. We revisit the mass loss of different sectors and show that they manifest quite different sensitivities to atmospheric and oceanic forcing. In addition, we discuss recent progress in constructing coupled ice-ocean-atmosphere models required to project realistic future sea-level changes.

Evolving Understanding of Antarctic Ice-Sheet Physics and Ambiguity in Probabilistic Sea-Level Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kopp, Robert E.; DeConto, Robert M.; Bader, Daniel A.; Hay, Carling C.; Horton, Radley M.; Kulp, Scott; Oppenheimer, Michael; Pollard, David; Strauss, Benjamin H.

2017-12-01

Mechanisms such as ice-shelf hydrofracturing and ice-cliff collapse may rapidly increase discharge from marine-based ice sheets. Here, we link a probabilistic framework for sea-level projections to a small ensemble of Antarctic ice-sheet (AIS) simulations incorporating these physical processes to explore their influence on global-mean sea-level (GMSL) and relative sea-level (RSL). We compare the new projections to past results using expert assessment and structured expert elicitation about AIS changes. Under high greenhouse gas emissions (Representative Concentration Pathway [RCP] 8.5), median projected 21st century GMSL rise increases from 79 to 146 cm. Without protective measures, revised median RSL projections would by 2100 submerge land currently home to 153 million people, an increase of 44 million. The use of a physical model, rather than simple parameterizations assuming constant acceleration of ice loss, increases forcing sensitivity: overlap between the central 90% of simulations for 2100 for RCP 8.5 (93-243 cm) and RCP 2.6 (26-98 cm) is minimal. By 2300, the gap between median GMSL estimates for RCP 8.5 and RCP 2.6 reaches >10 m, with median RSL projections for RCP 8.5 jeopardizing land now occupied by 950 million people (versus 167 million for RCP 2.6). The minimal correlation between the contribution of AIS to GMSL by 2050 and that in 2100 and beyond implies current sea-level observations cannot exclude future extreme outcomes. The sensitivity of post-2050 projections to deeply uncertain physics highlights the need for robust decision and adaptive management frameworks.

Evolving Understanding of Antarctic Ice-Sheet Physics and Ambiguity in Probabilistic Sea-Level Projections

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kopp, Robert E.; DeConto, Robert M.; Bader, Daniel A.; Hay, Carling C.; Horton, Radley M.; Kulp, Scott; Oppenheimer, Michael; Pollard, David; Strauss, Benjamin

2017-01-01

Mechanisms such as ice-shelf hydrofracturing and ice-cliff collapse may rapidly increase discharge from marine-based ice sheets. Here, we link a probabilistic framework for sea-level projections to a small ensemble of Antarctic ice-sheet (AIS) simulations incorporating these physical processes to explore their influence on global-mean sea-level (GMSL) and relative sea-level (RSL). We compare the new projections to past results using expert assessment and structured expert elicitation about AIS changes. Under high greenhouse gas emissions (Representative Concentration Pathway [RCP] 8.5), median projected 21st century GMSL rise increases from 79 to 146 cm. Without protective measures, revised median RSL projections would by 2100 submerge land currently home to 153 million people, an increase of 44 million. The use of a physical model, rather than simple parameterizations assuming constant acceleration of ice loss, increases forcing sensitivity: overlap between the central 90% of simulations for 2100 for RCP 8.5 (93-243 cm) and RCP 2.6 (26-98 cm) is minimal. By 2300, the gap between median GMSL estimates for RCP 8.5 and RCP 2.6 reaches >10 m, with median RSL projections for RCP 8.5 jeopardizing land now occupied by 950 million people (versus 167 million for RCP 2.6). The minimal correlation between the contribution of AIS to GMSL by 2050 and that in 2100 and beyond implies current sea-level observations cannot exclude future extreme outcomes. The sensitivity of post-2050 projections to deeply uncertain physics highlights the need for robust decision and adaptive management frameworks.

Basal crevasses and suture zones in the Larsen C Ice Shelf, Antarctica: Implications for ice shelf stability in a warming climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McGrath, Daniel J.

Understanding ice shelf structure and processes is paramount to future predictions of sea level rise, as nearly 75% of the ice flux from the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) passes through these gates. The breakup of an ice shelf removes the longitudinal back stress acting on the grounded inland ice and leads to flow acceleration, dynamic thinning and frontal retreat, processes that can be sustained for more than a decade. Increased ice discharge to the ocean contributes to global sea level rise. This dissertation investigates basal crevasses and suture zones, two key structural components of ice shelves, in order to understand how the structure of an ice shelf influences its stability in a warming climate. Ground penetrating radar, high-resolution satellite imagery and a variety of modeling approaches are utilized to assess these features on the Larsen C Ice Shelf but in a manner that considers their influence on ice shelf stability around the AIS. Basal crevasses are large-scale (~66% of ice thickness and ten's of kms in length) and abundant features that are significant structural weaknesses. The viscoplastic deformation of the ice shelf in response to the perturbed hydrostatic balance leads to the formation of both surface depressions and crevasses, hence weakening the ice shelf further. Basal crevasses increase the local ice-ocean interface by ~30%, thereby increasing basal roughness and altering ice-ocean interactions. Ice-shelf fractures frequently terminate where they encounter suture zones, regions of material heterogeneity that form at the lateral bounds of meteoric inflows to ice shelves. The termination of a 25 km-long rift in the Churchill Peninsula suture zone is investigated and found to contain ~60 m of accreted marine ice. Steady-state basal melting/freezing rates are determined for the ice shelf and applied to a flowline model to examine the along-flow evolution of ice shelf structure. The thickening surface wedge of locally accumulated meteoric ice, which likely has limited lateral variation in its mechanical properties, accounts for ~60% of the total ice thickness near the calving front. This suggests that the material heterogeneities present in the lower ~40% of the ice column are responsible for resisting fracture propagation and thereby delaying tabular calving events. This represents a highly sensitive aspect of ice-shelf stability, as changes in the oceanic forcing may lead to the loss of this heterogeneity.

Thermal preconditioning of mountain permafrost towards instability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hauck, Christian; Etzelmüller, Bernd; Hilbich, Christin; Isaksen, Ketil; Mollaret, Coline; Pellet, Cécile; Westermann, Sebastian

2017-04-01

Warming permafrost has been detected worldwide in recent years and is projected to continue during the next century as shown in many modelling studies from the polar and mountain regions. In mountain regions, this can lead to potentially hazardous impacts on short time-scales by an increased tendency for slope instabilities. However, the time scale of permafrost thaw and the role of the ice content for determining the strength and rate of permafrost warming and degradation (= development of talik) are still unclear, especially in highly heterogeneous terrain. Observations of permafrost temperatures near the freezing point show complex inter-annual responses to climate forcing due to latent heat effects during thawing and the influence of the snow-cover, which is formed and modulated by highly non-linear processes itself. These effects are complicated by 3-dimensional hydrological processes and interactions between snow melt, infiltration and drainage which may also play an important role in the triggering of mass movements in steep permafrost slopes. In this contribution we demonstrate for the first time a preconditioning effect within near-surface layers in mountain permafrost that causes non-linear degradation and accelerates permafrost thaw. We hypothesise that an extreme regional or global temperature anomaly, such as the Central European summers 2003 and 2015 or the Northern European summers 2006 and 2014, will enhance permafrost degradation if the active layer and the top of the permafrost layer are already preconditioned, i.e. have reduced latent heat content. This preconditioning can already be effectuated by a singular warm year, leading to exceptionally strong melting of the ground ice in the near-surface layers. On sloping terrain and in a context of quasi-continuous atmospheric warming, this ice-loss can be considered as irreversible, as a large part of the melted water will drain/evaporate during the process, and the build-up of an equivalent amount of ice in following cold years does not happen on similar time-scales as the melting. Joint thermal and geophysical observations from permafrost sites in the Swiss Alps and Scandinavia suggest that the above process applies mostly to sites with low to intermediate ice contents, where singular anomalies can lead to sustained ice loss even at larger depths.

Invariant polar bear habitat selection during a period of sea ice loss.

PubMed

Wilson, Ryan R; Regehr, Eric V; Rode, Karyn D; St Martin, Michelle

2016-08-17

Climate change is expected to alter many species' habitat. A species' ability to adjust to these changes is partially determined by their ability to adjust habitat selection preferences to new environmental conditions. Sea ice loss has forced polar bears (Ursus maritimus) to spend longer periods annually over less productive waters, which may be a primary driver of population declines. A negative population response to greater time spent over less productive water implies, however, that prey are not also shifting their space use in response to sea ice loss. We show that polar bear habitat selection in the Chukchi Sea has not changed between periods before and after significant sea ice loss, leading to a 75% reduction of highly selected habitat in summer. Summer was the only period with loss of highly selected habitat, supporting the contention that summer will be a critical period for polar bears as sea ice loss continues. Our results indicate that bears are either unable to shift selection patterns to reflect new prey use patterns or that there has not been a shift towards polar basin waters becoming more productive for prey. Continued sea ice loss is likely to further reduce habitat with population-level consequences for polar bears. © 2016 The Author(s).

Air-sea interaction regimes in the sub-Antarctic Southern Ocean and Antarctic marginal ice zone revealed by icebreaker measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Lisan; Jin, Xiangze; Schulz, Eric W.; Josey, Simon A.

2017-08-01

This study analyzed shipboard air-sea measurements acquired by the icebreaker Aurora Australis during its off-winter operation in December 2010 to May 2012. Mean conditions over 7 months (October-April) were compiled from a total of 22 ship tracks. The icebreaker traversed the water between Hobart, Tasmania, and the Antarctic continent, providing valuable in situ insight into two dynamically important, yet poorly sampled, regimes: the sub-Antarctic Southern Ocean and the Antarctic marginal ice zone (MIZ) in the Indian Ocean sector. The transition from the open water to the ice-covered surface creates sharp changes in albedo, surface roughness, and air temperature, leading to consequential effects on air-sea variables and fluxes. Major effort was made to estimate the air-sea fluxes in the MIZ using the bulk flux algorithms that are tuned specifically for the sea-ice effects, while computing the fluxes over the sub-Antarctic section using the COARE3.0 algorithm. The study evidenced strong sea-ice modulations on winds, with the southerly airflow showing deceleration (convergence) in the MIZ and acceleration (divergence) when moving away from the MIZ. Marked seasonal variations in heat exchanges between the atmosphere and the ice margin were noted. The monotonic increase in turbulent latent and sensible heat fluxes after summer turned the MIZ quickly into a heat loss regime, while at the same time the sub-Antarctic surface water continued to receive heat from the atmosphere. The drastic increase in turbulent heat loss in the MIZ contrasted sharply to the nonsignificant and seasonally invariant turbulent heat loss over the sub-Antarctic open water.