Science.gov

Sample records for accident analysis assumptions

  1. Formalization and Analysis of Reasoning by Assumption

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bosse, Tibor; Jonker, Catholijn M.; Treur, Jan

    2006-01-01

    This article introduces a novel approach for the analysis of the dynamics of reasoning processes and explores its applicability for the reasoning pattern called reasoning by assumption. More specifically, for a case study in the domain of a Master Mind game, it is shown how empirical human reasoning traces can be formalized and automatically…

  2. Causal Mediation Analysis: Warning! Assumptions Ahead

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Keele, Luke

    2015-01-01

    In policy evaluations, interest may focus on why a particular treatment works. One tool for understanding why treatments work is causal mediation analysis. In this essay, I focus on the assumptions needed to estimate mediation effects. I show that there is no "gold standard" method for the identification of causal mediation effects. In…

  3. Canister storage building design basis accident analysis documentation

    SciTech Connect

    KOPELIC, S.D.

    1999-02-25

    This document provides the detailed accident analysis to support HNF-3553, Spent Nuclear Fuel Project Final Safety Analysis Report, Annex A, ''Canister Storage Building Final Safety Analysis Report.'' All assumptions, parameters, and models used to provide the analysis of the design basis accidents are documented to support the conclusions in the Canister Storage Building Final Safety Analysis Report.

  4. Canister Storage Building (CSB) Design Basis Accident Analysis Documentation

    SciTech Connect

    CROWE, R.D.; PIEPHO, M.G.

    2000-03-23

    This document provided the detailed accident analysis to support HNF-3553, Spent Nuclear Fuel Project Final Safety Analysis Report, Annex A, ''Canister Storage Building Final Safety Analysis Report''. All assumptions, parameters, and models used to provide the analysis of the design basis accidents are documented to support the conclusions in the Canister Storage Building Final Safety Analysis Report.

  5. Canister Storage Building (CSB) Design Basis Accident Analysis Documentation

    SciTech Connect

    CROWE, R.D.

    1999-09-09

    This document provides the detailed accident analysis to support ''HNF-3553, Spent Nuclear Fuel Project Final Safety, Analysis Report, Annex A,'' ''Canister Storage Building Final Safety Analysis Report.'' All assumptions, parameters, and models used to provide the analysis of the design basis accidents are documented to support the conclusions in the Canister Storage Building Final Safety Analysis Report.

  6. Cold Vacuum Drying (CVD) Facility Design Basis Accident Analysis Documentation

    SciTech Connect

    PIEPHO, M.G.

    1999-10-20

    This document provides the detailed accident analysis to support HNF-3553, Annex B, Spent Nuclear Fuel Project Final Safety Analysis Report, ''Cold Vacuum Drying Facility Final Safety Analysis Report (FSAR).'' All assumptions, parameters and models used to provide the analysis of the design basis accidents are documented to support the conclusions in the FSAR.

  7. Applying STAMP in Accident Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Leveson, Nancy; Daouk, Mirna; Dulac, Nicolas; Marais, Karen

    2003-01-01

    Accident models play a critical role in accident investigation and analysis. Most traditional models are based on an underlying chain of events. These models, however, have serious limitations when used for complex, socio-technical systems. Previously, Leveson proposed a new accident model (STAMP) based on system theory. In STAMP, the basic concept is not an event but a constraint. This paper shows how STAMP can be applied to accident analysis using three different views or models of the accident process and proposes a notation for describing this process.

  8. Accident Tolerant Fuel Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Curtis Smith; Heather Chichester; Jesse Johns; Melissa Teague; Michael Tonks; Robert Youngblood

    2014-09-01

    Safety is central to the design, licensing, operation, and economics of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs). Consequently, the ability to better characterize and quantify safety margin holds the key to improved decision making about light water reactor design, operation, and plant life extension. A systematic approach to characterization of safety margins and the subsequent margins management options represents a vital input to the licensee and regulatory analysis and decision making that will be involved. The purpose of the Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Pathway research and development (R&D) is to support plant decisions for risk-informed margins management by improving economics and reliability, and sustaining safety, of current NPPs. Goals of the RISMC Pathway are twofold: (1) Develop and demonstrate a risk-assessment method coupled to safety margin quantification that can be used by NPP decision makers as part of their margin recovery strategies. (2) Create an advanced “RISMC toolkit” that enables more accurate representation of NPP safety margin. In order to carry out the R&D needed for the Pathway, the Idaho National Laboratory is performing a series of case studies that will explore methods- and tools-development issues, in addition to being of current interest in their own right. One such study is a comparative analysis of safety margins of plants using different fuel cladding types: specifically, a comparison between current-technology Zircaloy cladding and a notional “accident-tolerant” (e.g., SiC-based) cladding. The present report begins the process of applying capabilities that are still under development to the problem of assessing new fuel designs. The approach and lessons learned from this case study will be included in future Technical Basis Guides produced by the RISMC Pathway. These guides will be the mechanism for developing the specifications for RISMC tools and for defining how plant decision makers should propose and

  9. Accident tolerant fuel analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, Curtis; Chichester, Heather; Johns, Jesse; Teague, Melissa; Tonks, Michael Idaho National Laboratory; Youngblood, Robert

    2014-09-01

    Safety is central to the design, licensing, operation, and economics of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs). Consequently, the ability to better characterize and quantify safety margin holds the key to improved decision making about light water reactor design, operation, and plant life extension. A systematic approach to characterization of safety margins and the subsequent margins management options represents a vital input to the licensee and regulatory analysis and decision making that will be involved. The purpose of the Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Pathway research and development (R&D) is to support plant decisions for risk-informed margins management by improving economics and reliability, and sustaining safety, of current NPPs. Goals of the RISMC Pathway are twofold: (1) Develop and demonstrate a risk-assessment method coupled to safety margin quantification that can be used by NPP decision makers as part of their margin recovery strategies. (2) Create an advanced ''RISMC toolkit'' that enables more accurate representation of NPP safety margin. In order to carry out the R&D needed for the Pathway, the Idaho National Laboratory is performing a series of case studies that will explore methods- and tools-development issues, in addition to being of current interest in their own right. One such study is a comparative analysis of safety margins of plants using different fuel cladding types: specifically, a comparison between current-technology Zircaloy cladding and a notional ''accident-tolerant'' (e.g., SiC-based) cladding. The present report begins the process of applying capabilities that are still under development to the problem of assessing new fuel designs. The approach and lessons learned from this case study will be included in future Technical Basis Guides produced by the RISMC Pathway. These guides will be the mechanism for developing the specifications for RISMC tools and for defining how plant decision makers should propose and

  10. Aircraft accidents : method of analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1929-01-01

    This report on a method of analysis of aircraft accidents has been prepared by a special committee on the nomenclature, subdivision, and classification of aircraft accidents organized by the National Advisory Committee for Aeronautics in response to a request dated February 18, 1928, from the Air Coordination Committee consisting of the Assistant Secretaries for Aeronautics in the Departments of War, Navy, and Commerce. The work was undertaken in recognition of the difficulty of drawing correct conclusions from efforts to analyze and compare reports of aircraft accidents prepared by different organizations using different classifications and definitions. The air coordination committee's request was made "in order that practices used may henceforth conform to a standard and be universally comparable." the purpose of the special committee therefore was to prepare a basis for the classification and comparison of aircraft accidents, both civil and military. (author)

  11. Nuclear fuel cycle facility accident analysis handbook

    SciTech Connect

    Ayer, J E; Clark, A T; Loysen, P; Ballinger, M Y; Mishima, J; Owczarski, P C; Gregory, W S; Nichols, B D

    1988-05-01

    The Accident Analysis Handbook (AAH) covers four generic facilities: fuel manufacturing, fuel reprocessing, waste storage/solidification, and spent fuel storage; and six accident types: fire, explosion, tornado, criticality, spill, and equipment failure. These are the accident types considered to make major contributions to the radiological risk from accidents in nuclear fuel cycle facility operations. The AAH will enable the user to calculate source term releases from accident scenarios manually or by computer. A major feature of the AAH is development of accident sample problems to provide input to source term analysis methods and transport computer codes. Sample problems and illustrative examples for different accident types are included in the AAH.

  12. Evaluation of assumptions in soil moisture triple collocation analysis

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Triple collocation analysis (TCA) enables estimation of error variances for three or more products that retrieve or estimate the same geophysical variable using mutually-independent methods. Several statistical assumptions regarding the statistical nature of errors (e.g., mutual independence and ort...

  13. Aircraft Loss-of-Control Accident Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Belcastro, Christine M.; Foster, John V.

    2010-01-01

    Loss of control remains one of the largest contributors to fatal aircraft accidents worldwide. Aircraft loss-of-control accidents are complex in that they can result from numerous causal and contributing factors acting alone or (more often) in combination. Hence, there is no single intervention strategy to prevent these accidents. To gain a better understanding into aircraft loss-of-control events and possible intervention strategies, this paper presents a detailed analysis of loss-of-control accident data (predominantly from Part 121), including worst case combinations of causal and contributing factors and their sequencing. Future potential risks are also considered.

  14. An analysis of aircraft accidents involving fires

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lucha, G. V.; Robertson, M. A.; Schooley, F. A.

    1975-01-01

    All U. S. Air Carrier accidents between 1963 and 1974 were studied to assess the extent of total personnel and aircraft damage which occurred in accidents and in accidents involving fire. Published accident reports and NTSB investigators' factual backup files were the primary sources of data. Although it was frequently not possible to assess the relative extent of fire-caused damage versus impact damage using the available data, the study established upper and lower bounds for deaths and damage due specifically to fire. In 12 years there were 122 accidents which involved airframe fires. Eighty-seven percent of the fires occurred after impact, and fuel leakage from ruptured tanks or severed lines was the most frequently cited cause. A cost analysis was performed for 300 serious accidents, including 92 serious accidents which involved fire. Personal injury costs were outside the scope of the cost analysis, but data on personnel injury judgements as well as settlements received from the CAB are included for reference.

  15. Safety analysis of surface haulage accidents

    SciTech Connect

    Randolph, R.F.; Boldt, C.M.K.

    1996-12-31

    Research on improving haulage truck safety, started by the U.S. Bureau of Mines, is being continued by its successors. This paper reports the orientation of the renewed research efforts, beginning with an update on accident data analysis, the role of multiple causes in these accidents, and the search for practical methods for addressing the most important causes. Fatal haulage accidents most often involve loss of control or collisions caused by a variety of factors. Lost-time injuries most often involve sprains or strains to the back or multiple body areas, which can often be attributed to rough roads and the shocks of loading and unloading. Research to reduce these accidents includes improved warning systems, shock isolation for drivers, encouraging seatbelt usage, and general improvements to system and task design.

  16. Cold Vacuum Drying facility design basis accident analysis documentation

    SciTech Connect

    CROWE, R.D.

    2000-08-08

    This document provides the detailed accident analysis to support HNF-3553, Annex B, Spent Nuclear Fuel Project Final Safety Analysis Report (FSAR), ''Cold Vacuum Drying Facility Final Safety Analysis Report.'' All assumptions, parameters, and models used to provide the analysis of the design basis accidents are documented to support the conclusions in the FSAR. The calculations in this document address the design basis accidents (DBAs) selected for analysis in HNF-3553, ''Spent Nuclear Fuel Project Final Safety Analysis Report'', Annex B, ''Cold Vacuum Drying Facility Final Safety Analysis Report.'' The objective is to determine the quantity of radioactive particulate available for release at any point during processing at the Cold Vacuum Drying Facility (CVDF) and to use that quantity to determine the amount of radioactive material released during the DBAs. The radioactive material released is used to determine dose consequences to receptors at four locations, and the dose consequences are compared with the appropriate evaluation guidelines and release limits to ascertain the need for preventive and mitigative controls.

  17. HTGR severe accident sequence analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Harrington, R.M.; Ball, S.J.; Kornegay, F.C.

    1982-01-01

    Thermal-hydraulic, fission product transport, and atmospheric dispersion calculations are presented for hypothetical severe accident release paths at the Fort St. Vrain (FSV) high temperature gas cooled reactor (HTGR). Off-site radiation exposures are calculated for assumed release of 100% of the 24 hour post-shutdown core xenon and krypton inventory and 5.5% of the iodine inventory. The results show conditions under which dose avoidance measures would be desirable and demonstrate the importance of specific release characteristics such as effective release height. 7 tables.

  18. Anthropotechnological analysis of industrial accidents in Brazil.

    PubMed Central

    Binder, M. C.; de Almeida, I. M.; Monteau, M.

    1999-01-01

    The Brazilian Ministry of Labour has been attempting to modify the norms used to analyse industrial accidents in the country. For this purpose, in 1994 it tried to make compulsory use of the causal tree approach to accident analysis, an approach developed in France during the 1970s, without having previously determined whether it is suitable for use under the industrial safety conditions that prevail in most Brazilian firms. In addition, opposition from Brazilian employers has blocked the proposed changes to the norms. The present study employed anthropotechnology to analyse experimental application of the causal tree method to work-related accidents in industrial firms in the region of Botucatu, São Paulo. Three work-related accidents were examined in three industrial firms representative of local, national and multinational companies. On the basis of the accidents analysed in this study, the rationale for the use of the causal tree method in Brazil can be summarized for each type of firm as follows: the method is redundant if there is a predominance of the type of risk whose elimination or neutralization requires adoption of conventional industrial safety measures (firm representative of local enterprises); the method is worth while if the company's specific technical risks have already largely been eliminated (firm representative of national enterprises); and the method is particularly appropriate if the firm has a good safety record and the causes of accidents are primarily related to industrial organization and management (multinational enterprise). PMID:10680249

  19. Single pilot IFR accident data analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Harris, D. F.; Morrisete, J. A.

    1982-01-01

    The aircraft accident data recorded and maintained by the National Transportation Safety Board for 1964 to 1979 were analyzed to determine what problems exist in the general aviation single pilot instrument flight rules environment. A previous study conducted in 1978 for the years 1964 to 1975 provided a basis for comparison. The purpose was to determine what changes, if any, have occurred in trends and cause-effect relationships reported in the earlier study. The increasing numbers have been tied to measures of activity to produce accident rates which in turn were analyzed in terms of change. Where anomalies or unusually high accident rates were encountered, further analysis was conducted to isolate pertinent patterns of cause factors and/or experience levels of involved pilots. The bulk of the effort addresses accidents in the landing phase of operations. A detailed analysis was performed on controlled/uncontrolled collisions and their unique attributes delineated. Estimates of day vs. night general aviation activity and accident rates were obtained.

  20. Approaches to accident analysis in recent US Department of Energy environmental impact statements

    SciTech Connect

    Mueller, C.; Folga, S.; Nabelssi, B.

    1996-12-31

    A review of accident analyses in recent US Department of Energy (DOE) Environmental Impact Statements (EISs) was conducted to evaluate the consistency among approaches and to compare these approaches with existing DOE guidance. The review considered several components of an accident analysis: the overall scope, which in turn should reflect the scope of the EIS; the spectrum of accidents considered; the methods and assumptions used to determine frequencies or frequency ranges for the accident sequences; and the assumption and technical bases for developing radiological and chemical atmospheric source terms and for calculating the consequences of airborne releases. The review also considered the range of results generated with respect to impacts on various worker and general populations. In this paper, the findings of these reviews are presented and methods recommended for improving consistency among EISs and bringing them more into line with existing DOE guidance.

  1. Sensitivity Analysis for Hierarchical Models Employing "t" Level-1 Assumptions.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Seltzer, Michael; Novak, John; Choi, Kilchan; Lim, Nelson

    2002-01-01

    Examines the ways in which level-1 outliers can impact the estimation of fixed effects and random effects in hierarchical models (HMs). Also outlines and illustrates the use of Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms for conducting sensitivity analyses under "t" level-1 assumptions, including algorithms for settings in which the degrees of freedom at…

  2. Reactivity Insertion Accident Analysis with Coupled RETRAN

    SciTech Connect

    Kim, Yo-Han; Yang, Chang-Keun; Sung, Chang-Kyung; Lee, Chang-Sup

    2004-07-01

    Because of analysis field to be wider and complicated is required, it faces up hardships due to the narrow analysis scopes and limited functions of current vendor code systems. To overcome it KEPRI develop the in-house safety analysis methodology based on the available exquisite codes. For the development, the RETRAN code was modified and coupled to compensate for the lack of capabilities. To estimate the feasibility of the methodology and code system, some reactivity insertion accidents were analyzed and compared with the results mentioned in final safety analysis report of the plant. (authors)

  3. NASA Accident Precursor Analysis Handbook, Version 1.0

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Groen, Frank; Everett, Chris; Hall, Anthony; Insley, Scott

    2011-01-01

    Catastrophic accidents are usually preceded by precursory events that, although observable, are not recognized as harbingers of a tragedy until after the fact. In the nuclear industry, the Three Mile Island accident was preceded by at least two events portending the potential for severe consequences from an underappreciated causal mechanism. Anomalies whose failure mechanisms were integral to the losses of Space Transportation Systems (STS) Challenger and Columbia had been occurring within the STS fleet prior to those accidents. Both the Rogers Commission Report and the Columbia Accident Investigation Board report found that processes in place at the time did not respond to the prior anomalies in a way that shed light on their true risk implications. This includes the concern that, in the words of the NASA Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel (ASAP), "no process addresses the need to update a hazard analysis when anomalies occur" At a broader level, the ASAP noted in 2007 that NASA "could better gauge the likelihood of losses by developing leading indicators, rather than continue to depend on lagging indicators". These observations suggest a need to revalidate prior assumptions and conclusions of existing safety (and reliability) analyses, as well as to consider the potential for previously unrecognized accident scenarios, when unexpected or otherwise undesired behaviors of the system are observed. This need is also discussed in NASA's system safety handbook, which advocates a view of safety assurance as driving a program to take steps that are necessary to establish and maintain a valid and credible argument for the safety of its missions. It is the premise of this handbook that making cases for safety more experience-based allows NASA to be better informed about the safety performance of its systems, and will ultimately help it to manage safety in a more effective manner. The APA process described in this handbook provides a systematic means of analyzing candidate

  4. Developing techniques for cause-responsibility analysis of occupational accidents.

    PubMed

    Jabbari, Mousa; Ghorbani, Roghayeh

    2016-11-01

    The aim of this study was to specify the causes of occupational accidents, determine social responsibility and the role of groups involved in work-related accidents. This study develops occupational accidents causes tree, occupational accidents responsibility tree, and occupational accidents component-responsibility analysis worksheet; based on these methods, it develops cause-responsibility analysis (CRA) techniques, and for testing them, analyzes 100 fatal/disabling occupational accidents in the construction setting that were randomly selected from all the work-related accidents in Tehran, Iran, over a 5-year period (2010-2014). The main result of this study involves two techniques for CRA: occupational accidents tree analysis (OATA) and occupational accidents components analysis (OACA), used in parallel for determination of responsible groups and responsibilities rate. From the results, we find that the management group of construction projects has 74.65% responsibility of work-related accidents. The developed techniques are purposeful for occupational accidents investigation/analysis, especially for the determination of detailed list of tasks, responsibilities, and their rates. Therefore, it is useful for preventing work-related accidents by focusing on the responsible group's duties.

  5. Cross-analysis of hazmat road accidents using multiple databases.

    PubMed

    Trépanier, Martin; Leroux, Marie-Hélène; de Marcellis-Warin, Nathalie

    2009-11-01

    Road selection for hazardous materials transportation relies heavily on risk analysis. With risk being generally expressed as a product of the probability of occurrence and the expected consequence, one will understand that risk analysis is data intensive. However, various authors have noticed the lack of statistical reliability of hazmat accident databases due to the systematic underreporting of such events. Also, official accident databases alone are not always providing all the information required (economical impact, road conditions, etc.). In this paper, we attempt to integrate many data sources to analyze hazmat accidents in the province of Quebec, Canada. Databases on dangerous goods accidents, road accidents and work accidents were cross-analyzed. Results show that accidents can hardly be matched and that these databases suffer from underreporting. Police records seem to have better coverage than official records maintained by hazmat authorities. Serious accidents are missing from government's official databases (some involving deaths or major spills) even though their declaration is mandatory.

  6. Cross-analysis of hazmat road accidents using multiple databases.

    PubMed

    Trépanier, Martin; Leroux, Marie-Hélène; de Marcellis-Warin, Nathalie

    2009-11-01

    Road selection for hazardous materials transportation relies heavily on risk analysis. With risk being generally expressed as a product of the probability of occurrence and the expected consequence, one will understand that risk analysis is data intensive. However, various authors have noticed the lack of statistical reliability of hazmat accident databases due to the systematic underreporting of such events. Also, official accident databases alone are not always providing all the information required (economical impact, road conditions, etc.). In this paper, we attempt to integrate many data sources to analyze hazmat accidents in the province of Quebec, Canada. Databases on dangerous goods accidents, road accidents and work accidents were cross-analyzed. Results show that accidents can hardly be matched and that these databases suffer from underreporting. Police records seem to have better coverage than official records maintained by hazmat authorities. Serious accidents are missing from government's official databases (some involving deaths or major spills) even though their declaration is mandatory. PMID:19819367

  7. Reactor Safety Gap Evaluation of Accident Tolerant Components and Severe Accident Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Farmer, Mitchell T.; Bunt, R.; Corradini, M.; Ellison, Paul B.; Francis, M.; Gabor, John D.; Gauntt, R.; Henry, C.; Linthicum, R.; Luangdilok, W.; Lutz, R.; Paik, C.; Plys, M.; Rabiti, Cristian; Rempe, J.; Robb, K.; Wachowiak, R.

    2015-01-31

    The overall objective of this study was to conduct a technology gap evaluation on accident tolerant components and severe accident analysis methodologies with the goal of identifying any data and/or knowledge gaps that may exist, given the current state of light water reactor (LWR) severe accident research, and additionally augmented by insights obtained from the Fukushima accident. The ultimate benefit of this activity is that the results can be used to refine the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Reactor Safety Technology (RST) research and development (R&D) program plan to address key knowledge gaps in severe accident phenomena and analyses that affect reactor safety and that are not currently being addressed by the industry or the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC).

  8. Accident analysis of railway transportation of low-level radioactive and hazardous chemical wastes: Application of the /open quotes/Maximum Credible Accident/close quotes/ concept

    SciTech Connect

    Ricci, E.; McLean, R.B.

    1988-09-01

    The maximum credible accident (MCA) approach to accident analysis places an upper bound on the potential adverse effects of a proposed action by using conservative but simplifying assumptions. It is often used when data are lacking to support a more realistic scenario or when MCA calculations result in acceptable consequences. The MCA approach can also be combined with realistic scenarios to assess potential adverse effects. This report presents a guide for the preparation of transportation accident analyses based on the use of the MCA concept. Rail transportation of contaminated wastes is used as an example. The example is the analysis of the environmental impact of the potential derailment of a train transporting a large shipment of wastes. The shipment is assumed to be contaminated with polychlorinated biphenyls and low-level radioactivities of uranium and technetium. The train is assumed to plunge into a river used as a source of drinking water. The conclusions from the example accident analysis are based on the calculation of the number of foreseeable premature cancer deaths the might result as a consequence of this accident. These calculations are presented, and the reference material forming the basis for all assumptions and calculations is also provided.

  9. Exploratory analysis of Spanish energetic mining accidents.

    PubMed

    Sanmiquel, Lluís; Freijo, Modesto; Rossell, Josep M

    2012-01-01

    Using data on work accidents and annual mining statistics, the paper studies work-related accidents in the Spanish energetic mining sector in 1999-2008. The following 3 parameters are considered: age, experience and size of the mine (in number of workers) where the accident took place. The main objective of this paper is to show the relationship between different accident indicators: risk index (as an expression of the incidence), average duration index for the age and size of the mine variables (as a measure of the seriousness of an accident), and the gravity index for the various sizes of mines (which measures the seriousness of an accident, too). The conclusions of this study could be useful to develop suitable prevention policies that would contribute towards a decrease in work-related accidents in the Spanish energetic mining industry. PMID:22721539

  10. [An analysis of industrial accidents in the working field with a particular emphasis on repeated accidents].

    PubMed

    Wakisaka, I; Yanagihashi, T; Tomari, T; Sato, M

    1990-03-01

    The present study is based on an analysis of routinely submitted reports of occupational accidents experienced by the workers of industrial enterprises under the jurisdiction of Kagoshima Labor Standard Office during a 5-year period 1983 to 1987. Officially notified injuries serious enough to keep employees away from their job for work at least 4 days were utilized in this study. Data was classified so as to give an observed frequency distribution for workers having any specified number of accidents. Also, the accident rate which is an indicator of the risk of accident was compared among different occupations, between age groups and between the sexes. Results obtained are as follows; 1) For the combined total of 6,324 accident cases for 8 types of occupation (Construction, Transportation, Mining & Quarrying, Forestry, Food manufacture, Lumber & Woodcraft, Manufacturing industry and Other business), the number of those who had at least one accident was 6,098, of which 5,837 were injured only once, 208 twice, 21 three times and 2 four times. When occupation type was fixed, however, the number of workers having one, two, three and four times of accidents were 5,895, 182, 19 and 2, respectively. This suggests that some workers are likely to have experienced repeated accidents in more than one type of occupation.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS) PMID:2131982

  11. [An analysis of industrial accidents in the working field with a particular emphasis on repeated accidents].

    PubMed

    Wakisaka, I; Yanagihashi, T; Tomari, T; Sato, M

    1990-03-01

    The present study is based on an analysis of routinely submitted reports of occupational accidents experienced by the workers of industrial enterprises under the jurisdiction of Kagoshima Labor Standard Office during a 5-year period 1983 to 1987. Officially notified injuries serious enough to keep employees away from their job for work at least 4 days were utilized in this study. Data was classified so as to give an observed frequency distribution for workers having any specified number of accidents. Also, the accident rate which is an indicator of the risk of accident was compared among different occupations, between age groups and between the sexes. Results obtained are as follows; 1) For the combined total of 6,324 accident cases for 8 types of occupation (Construction, Transportation, Mining & Quarrying, Forestry, Food manufacture, Lumber & Woodcraft, Manufacturing industry and Other business), the number of those who had at least one accident was 6,098, of which 5,837 were injured only once, 208 twice, 21 three times and 2 four times. When occupation type was fixed, however, the number of workers having one, two, three and four times of accidents were 5,895, 182, 19 and 2, respectively. This suggests that some workers are likely to have experienced repeated accidents in more than one type of occupation.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

  12. Making Sense out of Sex Stereotypes in Advertising: A Feminist Analysis of Assumptions.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ferrante, Karlene

    Sexism and racism in advertising have been well documented, but feminist research aimed at social change must go beyond existing content analyses to ask how advertising is created. Analysis of the "mirror assumption" (advertising reflects society) and the "gender assumption" (advertising speaks in a male voice to female consumers) reveals the fact…

  13. Accident progression event tree analysis for postulated severe accidents at N Reactor

    SciTech Connect

    Wyss, G.D.; Camp, A.L.; Miller, L.A.; Dingman, S.E.; Kunsman, D.M. ); Medford, G.T. )

    1990-06-01

    A Level II/III probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) has been performed for N Reactor, a Department of Energy (DOE) production reactor located on the Hanford reservation in Washington. The accident progression analysis documented in this report determines how core damage accidents identified in the Level I PRA progress from fuel damage to confinement response and potential releases the environment. The objectives of the study are to generate accident progression data for the Level II/III PRA source term model and to identify changes that could improve plant response under accident conditions. The scope of the analysis is comprehensive, excluding only sabotage and operator errors of commission. State-of-the-art methodology is employed based largely on the methods developed by Sandia for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission in support of the NUREG-1150 study. The accident progression model allows complex interactions and dependencies between systems to be explicitly considered. Latin Hypecube sampling was used to assess the phenomenological and systemic uncertainties associated with the primary and confinement system responses to the core damage accident. The results of the analysis show that the N Reactor confinement concept provides significant radiological protection for most of the accident progression pathways studied.

  14. Limitations of risk analysis in the determination of medical factors in road vehicle accidents.

    PubMed

    Spencer, Michael B; Carter, Tim; Nicholson, Anthony N

    2004-01-01

    The purpose of risk analysis in the determination of medical factors in road vehicle accidents is to evaluate the risks that are associated with different strategies for accident reduction, so that the subsequent decision making process can be based on a best assessment of the likely benefits. However, it is vital to appreciate the limitations of such an approach, especially where the conclusions depend heavily on the accuracy of the assumptions made. In this paper the assumptions used in some recent analyses concerned with incapacitation, epilepsy, hypoglycaemia and psycho-active medication are explored, and the additional information required to reduce the uncertainty in the estimation of risk indicated. The conclusions from this analysis do not invalidate the use of risk assessment, but draw attention to its limitations and show how a sensitivity analysis can help to identify those areas where more precise information is needed before such an approach can be used confidently in a policy setting. PMID:14998267

  15. Mathematical Assumptions versus Biological Reality: Myths in Affected Sib Pair Linkage Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Elston, Robert C.; Song, Danhong; Iyengar, Sudha K.

    2005-01-01

    Affected sib pair (ASP) analysis has become common ever since it was shown that, under very specific assumptions, ASPs afford a powerful design for linkage analysis. In 2003, Vieland and Huang, on the basis of a “fundamental heterogeneity equation,” proved that heterogeneity and epistasis are confounded in ASP linkage analysis. A much more serious limitation of ASP linkage analysis is the implicit assumption that randomly sampled sib pairs share half their alleles identical by descent at any locus, whereas a critical assumption underlying Vieland and Huang’s proof is that of joint Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium proportions at two trait loci. These are considered as examples of mathematical assumptions that may not always reflect biological reality. More-robust sib-pair designs and appropriate methods for their analysis have long been available. PMID:15540158

  16. Waste management facility accident analysis (WASTE ACC) system: software for analysis of waste management alternatives

    SciTech Connect

    Kohout, E.F.; Folga, S.; Mueller, C.; Nabelssi, B.

    1996-03-01

    This paper describes the Waste Management Facility Accident Analysis (WASTE{underscore}ACC) software, which was developed at Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) to support the US Department of Energy`s (DOE`s) Waste Management (WM) Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS). WASTE{underscore}ACC is a decision support and database system that is compatible with Microsoft{reg_sign} Windows{trademark}. It assesses potential atmospheric releases from accidents at waste management facilities. The software provides the user with an easy-to-use tool to determine the risk-dominant accident sequences for the many possible combinations of process technologies, waste and facility types, and alternative cases described in the WM PEIS. In addition, its structure will allow additional alternative cases and assumptions to be tested as part of the future DOE programmatic decision-making process. The WASTE{underscore}ACC system demonstrates one approach to performing a generic, systemwide evaluation of accident risks at waste management facilities. The advantages of WASTE{underscore}ACC are threefold. First, the software gets waste volume and radiological profile data that were used to perform other WM PEIS-related analyses directly from the WASTE{underscore}MGMT system. Second, the system allows for a consistent analysis across all sites and waste streams, which enables decision makers to understand more fully the trade-offs among various policy options and scenarios. Third, the system is easy to operate; even complex scenario runs are completed within minutes.

  17. TMI-2 accident: core heat-up analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Ardron, K.H.; Cain, D.G.

    1981-01-01

    This report summarizes NSAC study of reactor core thermal conditions during the accident at Three Mile Island, Unit 2. The study focuses primarily on the time period from core uncovery (approximately 113 minutes after turbine trip) through the initiation of sustained high pressure injection (after 202 minutes). The transient analysis is based upon established sequences of events; plant data; post-accident measurements; interpretation or indirect use of instrument responses to accident conditions.

  18. Accident Analysis for the NIST Research Reactor Before and After Fuel Conversion

    SciTech Connect

    Baek J.; Diamond D.; Cuadra, A.; Hanson, A.L.; Cheng, L-Y.; Brown, N.R.

    2012-09-30

    Postulated accidents have been analyzed for the 20 MW D2O-moderated research reactor (NBSR) at the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). The analysis has been carried out for the present core, which contains high enriched uranium (HEU) fuel and for a proposed equilibrium core with low enriched uranium (LEU) fuel. The analyses employ state-of-the-art calculational methods. Three-dimensional Monte Carlo neutron transport calculations were performed with the MCNPX code to determine homogenized fuel compositions in the lower and upper halves of each fuel element and to determine the resulting neutronic properties of the core. The accident analysis employed a model of the primary loop with the RELAP5 code. The model includes the primary pumps, shutdown pumps outlet valves, heat exchanger, fuel elements, and flow channels for both the six inner and twenty-four outer fuel elements. Evaluations were performed for the following accidents: (1) control rod withdrawal startup accident, (2) maximum reactivity insertion accident, (3) loss-of-flow accident resulting from loss of electrical power with an assumption of failure of shutdown cooling pumps, (4) loss-of-flow accident resulting from a primary pump seizure, and (5) loss-of-flow accident resulting from inadvertent throttling of a flow control valve. In addition, natural circulation cooling at low power operation was analyzed. The analysis shows that the conversion will not lead to significant changes in the safety analysis and the calculated minimum critical heat flux ratio and maximum clad temperature assure that there is adequate margin to fuel failure.

  19. Aircraft accidents.method of analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1937-01-01

    This report is a revision of NACA-TR-357. It was prepared by the Committee on Aircraft Accidents. The purpose of this report is to provide a basis for the classification and comparison of aircraft accidents, both civil and military.

  20. Development of Database for Accident Analysis in Indian Mines

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tripathy, Debi Prasad; Guru Raghavendra Reddy, K.

    2015-08-01

    Mining is a hazardous industry and high accident rates associated with underground mining is a cause of deep concern. Technological developments notwithstanding, rate of fatal accidents and reportable incidents have not shown corresponding levels of decline. This paper argues that adoption of appropriate safety standards by both mine management and the government may result in appreciable reduction in accident frequency. This can be achieved by using the technology in improving the working conditions, sensitising workers and managers about causes and prevention of accidents. Inputs required for a detailed analysis of an accident include information on location, time, type, cost of accident, victim, nature of injury, personal and environmental factors etc. Such information can be generated from data available in the standard coded accident report form. This paper presents a web based application for accident analysis in Indian mines during 2001-2013. An accident database (SafeStat) prototype based on Intranet of the TCP/IP agreement, as developed by the authors, is also discussed.

  1. NASA's Accident Precursor Analysis Process and the International Space Station

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Groen, Frank; Lutomski, Michael

    2010-01-01

    This viewgraph presentation reviews the implementation of Accident Precursor Analysis (APA), as well as the evaluation of In-Flight Investigations (IFI) and Problem Reporting and Corrective Action (PRACA) data for the identification of unrecognized accident potentials on the International Space Station.

  2. Chemical considerations in severe accident analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Malinauskas, A.P.; Kress, T.S.

    1988-01-01

    The Reactor Safety Study presented the first systematic attempt to include fission product physicochemical effects in the determination of expected consequences of hypothetical nuclear reactor power plant accidents. At the time, however, the data base was sparse, and the treatment of fission product behavior was not entirely consistent or accurate. Considerable research has since been performed to identify and understand chemical phenomena that can occur in the course of a nuclear reactor accident, and how these phenomena affect fission product behavior. In this report, the current status of our understanding of the chemistry of fission products in severe core damage accidents is summarized and contrasted with that of the Reactor Safety Study.

  3. Final safety analysis report for the Galileo Mission: Volume 2, Book 2: Accident model document: Appendices

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1988-12-15

    This section of the Accident Model Document (AMD) presents the appendices which describe the various analyses that have been conducted for use in the Galileo Final Safety Analysis Report II, Volume II. Included in these appendices are the approaches, techniques, conditions and assumptions used in the development of the analytical models plus the detailed results of the analyses. Also included in these appendices are summaries of the accidents and their associated probabilities and environment models taken from the Shuttle Data Book (NSTS-08116), plus summaries of the several segments of the recent GPHS safety test program. The information presented in these appendices is used in Section 3.0 of the AMD to develop the Failure/Abort Sequence Trees (FASTs) and to determine the fuel releases (source terms) resulting from the potential Space Shuttle/IUS accidents throughout the missions.

  4. Accident Precursor Analysis and Management: Reducing Technological Risk Through Diligence

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Phimister, James R. (Editor); Bier, Vicki M. (Editor); Kunreuther, Howard C. (Editor)

    2004-01-01

    Almost every year there is at least one technological disaster that highlights the challenge of managing technological risk. On February 1, 2003, the space shuttle Columbia and her crew were lost during reentry into the atmosphere. In the summer of 2003, there was a blackout that left millions of people in the northeast United States without electricity. Forensic analyses, congressional hearings, investigations by scientific boards and panels, and journalistic and academic research have yielded a wealth of information about the events that led up to each disaster, and questions have arisen. Why were the events that led to the accident not recognized as harbingers? Why were risk-reducing steps not taken? This line of questioning is based on the assumption that signals before an accident can and should be recognized. To examine the validity of this assumption, the National Academy of Engineering (NAE) undertook the Accident Precursors Project in February 2003. The project was overseen by a committee of experts from the safety and risk-sciences communities. Rather than examining a single accident or incident, the committee decided to investigate how different organizations anticipate and assess the likelihood of accidents from accident precursors. The project culminated in a workshop held in Washington, D.C., in July 2003. This report includes the papers presented at the workshop, as well as findings and recommendations based on the workshop results and committee discussions. The papers describe precursor strategies in aviation, the chemical industry, health care, nuclear power and security operations. In addition to current practices, they also address some areas for future research.

  5. An analysis of pilot error-related aircraft accidents

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kowalsky, N. B.; Masters, R. L.; Stone, R. B.; Babcock, G. L.; Rypka, E. W.

    1974-01-01

    A multidisciplinary team approach to pilot error-related U.S. air carrier jet aircraft accident investigation records successfully reclaimed hidden human error information not shown in statistical studies. New analytic techniques were developed and applied to the data to discover and identify multiple elements of commonality and shared characteristics within this group of accidents. Three techniques of analysis were used: Critical element analysis, which demonstrated the importance of a subjective qualitative approach to raw accident data and surfaced information heretofore unavailable. Cluster analysis, which was an exploratory research tool that will lead to increased understanding and improved organization of facts, the discovery of new meaning in large data sets, and the generation of explanatory hypotheses. Pattern recognition, by which accidents can be categorized by pattern conformity after critical element identification by cluster analysis.

  6. Analysis of Loss-of-Coolant Accidents in the NBSR

    SciTech Connect

    Baek J. S.; Cheng L.; Diamond, D.

    2014-05-23

    This report documents calculations of the fuel cladding temperature during loss-of-coolant accidents in the NBSR. The probability of a pipe failure is small and procedures exist to minimize the loss of water and assure emergency cooling water flows into the reactor core during such an event. Analysis in the past has shown that the emergency cooling water would provide adequate cooling if the water filled the flow channels within the fuel elements. The present analysis is to determine if there is adequate cooling if the water drains from the flow channels. Based on photographs of how the emergency water flows into the fuel elements from the distribution pan, it can be assumed that this water does not distribute uniformly across the flow channels but rather results in a liquid film flowing downward on the inside of one of the side plates in each fuel element and only wets the edges of the fuel plates. An analysis of guillotine breaks shows the cladding temperature remains below the blister temperature in fuel plates in the upper section of the fuel element. In the lower section, the fuel plates are also cooled by water outside the element that is present due to the hold-up pan and temperatures are lower than in the upper section. For small breaks, the simulation results show that the fuel elements are always cooled on the outside even in the upper section and the cladding temperature cannot be higher than the blister temperature. The above results are predicated on assumptions that are examined in the study to see their influence on fuel temperature.

  7. Bus accident analysis of routes with/without bus priority.

    PubMed

    Goh, Kelvin Chun Keong; Currie, Graham; Sarvi, Majid; Logan, David

    2014-04-01

    This paper summarises findings on road safety performance and bus-involved accidents in Melbourne along roads where bus priority measures had been applied. Results from an empirical analysis of the accident types revealed significant reduction in the proportion of accidents involving buses hitting stationary objects and vehicles, which suggests the effect of bus priority in addressing manoeuvrability issues for buses. A mixed-effects negative binomial (MENB) regression and back-propagation neural network (BPNN) modelling of bus accidents considering wider influences on accident rates at a route section level also revealed significant safety benefits when bus priority is provided. Sensitivity analyses done on the BPNN model showed general agreement in the predicted accident frequency between both models. The slightly better performance recorded by the MENB model results suggests merits in adopting a mixed effects modelling approach for accident count prediction in practice given its capability to account for unobserved location and time-specific factors. A major implication of this research is that bus priority in Melbourne's context acts to improve road safety and should be a major consideration for road management agencies when implementing bus priority and road schemes.

  8. OFFSITE RADIOLOGICAL CONSEQUENCE ANALYSIS FOR THE BOUNDING FLAMMABLE GAS ACCIDENT

    SciTech Connect

    KRIPPS, L.J.

    2005-02-18

    This document quantifies the offsite radiological consequences of the bounding flammable gas accident for comparison with the 25 rem Evaluation Guideline established in DOE-STD-3009, Appendix A. The bounding flammable gas accident is a detonation in a SST. The calculation applies reasonably conservative input parameters in accordance with guidance in DOE-STD-3009, Appendix A. The purpose of this analysis is to calculate the offsite radiological consequence of the bounding flammable gas accident. DOE-STD-3009-94, ''Preparation Guide for US. Department of Energy Nonreactor Nuclear Facility Documented Safety Analyses'', requires the formal quantification of a limited subset of accidents representing a complete set of bounding conditions. The results of these analyses are then evaluated to determine if they challenge the DOE-STD-3009-94, Appendix A, ''Evaluation Guideline,'' of 25 rem total effective dose equivalent in order to identify and evaluate safety-class structures, systems, and components. The bounding flammable gas accident is a detonation in a single-shell tank (SST). A detonation versus a deflagration was selected for analysis because the faster flame speed of a detonation can potentially result in a larger release of respirable material. A detonation in an SST versus a double-shell tank (DST) was selected as the bounding accident because the estimated respirable release masses are the same and because the doses per unit quantity of waste inhaled are greater for SSTs than for DSTs. Appendix A contains a DST analysis for comparison purposes.

  9. Analysis of tritium mission FMEF/FAA fuel handling accidents

    SciTech Connect

    Van Keuren, J.C.

    1997-11-18

    The Fuels Material Examination Facility/Fuel Assembly Area is proposed to be used for fabrication of mixed oxide fuel to support the Fast Flux Test Facility (FFTF) tritium/medical isotope mission. The plutonium isotope mix for the new mission is different than that analyzed in the FMEF safety analysis report. A reanalysis was performed of three representative accidents for the revised plutonium mix to determine the impact on the safety analysis. Current versions computer codes and meterology data files were used for the analysis. The revised accidents were a criticality, an explosion in a glovebox, and a tornado. The analysis concluded that risk guidelines were met with the revised plutonium mix.

  10. Corporate cost of occupational accidents: an activity-based analysis.

    PubMed

    Rikhardsson, Pall M; Impgaard, Martin

    2004-03-01

    The systematic accident cost analysis (SACA) project was carried out during 2001 by The Aarhus School of Business and PricewaterhouseCoopers Denmark with financial support from The Danish National Working Environment Authority. Its focused on developing and testing a method for evaluating occupational costs of companies for use by occupational health and safety professionals. The method was tested in nine Danish companies within three different industry sectors and the costs of 27 selected occupational accidents in these companies were calculated. One of the main conclusions is that the SACA method could be used in all of the companies without revisions. The evaluation of accident cost showed that 2/3 of the costs of occupational accidents are visible in the Danish corporate accounting systems reviewed while 1/3 is hidden from management view. The highest cost of occupational accidents for a company with 3.600 employees was estimated to approximately US$ 682.000. The paper includes an introduction regarding accident cost analysis in companies, a presentation of the SACA project methodology and the SACA method itself, a short overview of some of the results of the SACA project and a conclusion. Further information about the project is available at http://www.asb.dk/saca. PMID:14642872

  11. Corporate cost of occupational accidents: an activity-based analysis.

    PubMed

    Rikhardsson, Pall M; Impgaard, Martin

    2004-03-01

    The systematic accident cost analysis (SACA) project was carried out during 2001 by The Aarhus School of Business and PricewaterhouseCoopers Denmark with financial support from The Danish National Working Environment Authority. Its focused on developing and testing a method for evaluating occupational costs of companies for use by occupational health and safety professionals. The method was tested in nine Danish companies within three different industry sectors and the costs of 27 selected occupational accidents in these companies were calculated. One of the main conclusions is that the SACA method could be used in all of the companies without revisions. The evaluation of accident cost showed that 2/3 of the costs of occupational accidents are visible in the Danish corporate accounting systems reviewed while 1/3 is hidden from management view. The highest cost of occupational accidents for a company with 3.600 employees was estimated to approximately US$ 682.000. The paper includes an introduction regarding accident cost analysis in companies, a presentation of the SACA project methodology and the SACA method itself, a short overview of some of the results of the SACA project and a conclusion. Further information about the project is available at http://www.asb.dk/saca.

  12. Historical analysis of US pipeline accidents triggered by natural hazards

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Girgin, Serkan; Krausmann, Elisabeth

    2015-04-01

    Natural hazards, such as earthquakes, floods, landslides, or lightning, can initiate accidents in oil and gas pipelines with potentially major consequences on the population or the environment due to toxic releases, fires and explosions. Accidents of this type are also referred to as Natech events. Many major accidents highlight the risk associated with natural-hazard impact on pipelines transporting dangerous substances. For instance, in the USA in 1994, flooding of the San Jacinto River caused the rupture of 8 and the undermining of 29 pipelines by the floodwaters. About 5.5 million litres of petroleum and related products were spilled into the river and ignited. As a results, 547 people were injured and significant environmental damage occurred. Post-incident analysis is a valuable tool for better understanding the causes, dynamics and impacts of pipeline Natech accidents in support of future accident prevention and mitigation. Therefore, data on onshore hazardous-liquid pipeline accidents collected by the US Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA) was analysed. For this purpose, a database-driven incident data analysis system was developed to aid the rapid review and categorization of PHMSA incident reports. Using an automated data-mining process followed by a peer review of the incident records and supported by natural hazard databases and external information sources, the pipeline Natechs were identified. As a by-product of the data-collection process, the database now includes over 800,000 incidents from all causes in industrial and transportation activities, which are automatically classified in the same way as the PHMSA record. This presentation describes the data collection and reviewing steps conducted during the study, provides information on the developed database and data analysis tools, and reports the findings of a statistical analysis of the identified hazardous liquid pipeline incidents in terms of accident dynamics and

  13. Hanford Waste Tank Bump Accident and Consequence Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    BRATZEL, D.R.

    2000-06-20

    This report provides a new evaluation of the Hanford tank bump accident analysis and consequences for incorporation into the Authorization Basis. The analysis scope is for the safe storage of waste in its current configuration in single-shell and double-shell tanks.

  14. Accident Sequence Evaluation Program: Human reliability analysis procedure

    SciTech Connect

    Swain, A.D.

    1987-02-01

    This document presents a shortened version of the procedure, models, and data for human reliability analysis (HRA) which are presented in the Handbook of Human Reliability Analysis With emphasis on Nuclear Power Plant Applications (NUREG/CR-1278, August 1983). This shortened version was prepared and tried out as part of the Accident Sequence Evaluation Program (ASEP) funded by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and managed by Sandia National Laboratories. The intent of this new HRA procedure, called the ''ASEP HRA Procedure,'' is to enable systems analysts, with minimal support from experts in human reliability analysis, to make estimates of human error probabilities and other human performance characteristics which are sufficiently accurate for many probabilistic risk assessments. The ASEP HRA Procedure consists of a Pre-Accident Screening HRA, a Pre-Accident Nominal HRA, a Post-Accident Screening HRA, and a Post-Accident Nominal HRA. The procedure in this document includes changes made after tryout and evaluation of the procedure in four nuclear power plants by four different systems analysts and related personnel, including human reliability specialists. The changes consist of some additional explanatory material (including examples), and more detailed definitions of some of the terms. 42 refs.

  15. Human factors review for Severe Accident Sequence Analysis (SASA)

    SciTech Connect

    Krois, P.A.; Haas, P.M.; Manning, J.J.; Bovell, C.R.

    1984-01-01

    The paper will discuss work being conducted during this human factors review including: (1) support of the Severe Accident Sequence Analysis (SASA) Program based on an assessment of operator actions, and (2) development of a descriptive model of operator severe accident management. Research by SASA analysts on the Browns Ferry Unit One (BF1) anticipated transient without scram (ATWS) was supported through a concurrent assessment of operator performance to demonstrate contributions to SASA analyses from human factors data and methods. A descriptive model was developed called the Function Oriented Accident Management (FOAM) model, which serves as a structure for bridging human factors, operations, and engineering expertise and which is useful for identifying needs/deficiencies in the area of accident management. The assessment of human factors issues related to ATWS required extensive coordination with SASA analysts. The analysis was consolidated primarily to six operator actions identified in the Emergency Procedure Guidelines (EPGs) as being the most critical to the accident sequence. These actions were assessed through simulator exercises, qualitative reviews, and quantitative human reliability analyses. The FOAM descriptive model assumes as a starting point that multiple operator/system failures exceed the scope of procedures and necessitates a knowledge-based emergency response by the operators. The FOAM model provides a functionally-oriented structure for assembling human factors, operations, and engineering data and expertise into operator guidance for unconventional emergency responses to mitigate severe accident progression and avoid/minimize core degradation. Operators must also respond to potential radiological release beyond plant protective barriers. Research needs in accident management and potential uses of the FOAM model are described. 11 references, 1 figure.

  16. MELCOR accident analysis for ARIES-ACT

    SciTech Connect

    Paul W. Humrickhouse; Brad J. Merrill

    2012-08-01

    We model a loss of flow accident (LOFA) in the ARIES-ACT1 tokamak design. ARIES-ACT1 features an advanced SiC blanket with LiPb as coolant and breeder, a helium cooled steel structural ring and tungsten divertors, a thin-walled, helium cooled vacuum vessel, and a room temperature water-cooled shield outside the vacuum vessel. The water heat transfer system is designed to remove heat by natural circulation during a LOFA. The MELCOR model uses time-dependent decay heats for each component determined by 1-D modeling. The MELCOR model shows that, despite periodic boiling of the water coolant, that structures are kept adequately cool by the passive safety system.

  17. Criticality accident dosimetry by chromosomal analysis.

    PubMed

    Voisin, P; Roy, L; Hone, P A; Edwards, A A; Lloyd, D C; Stephan, G; Romm, H; Groer, P G; Brame, R

    2004-01-01

    The technique of measuring the frequency of dicentric chromosomal aberrations in blood lymphocytes was used to estimate doses in a simulated criticality accident. The simulation consisted of three exposures; approximately 5 Gy with a bare source and 1 and 2 Gy with a lead-shielded source. Three laboratories made separate estimates of the doses. These were made by the iterative method of apportioning the observed dicentric frequencies between the gamma and neutron components, taking account of a given gamma/neutron dose ratio, and referring the separated dicentric frequencies to dose-response calibration curves. An alternative method, based on Bayesian ideas, was employed. This was developed for interpreting dicentric frequencies in situations where the gamma/neutron ratio is uncertain. Both methods gave very similar results. One laboratory produced dose estimates close to the eventual exercise reference doses and the other laboratories estimated slightly higher values. The main reason for the higher values was the calibration relationships for fission neutrons.

  18. Accident analysis of the windowless target system

    SciTech Connect

    Bianchi, F.; Ferri, R.

    2006-07-01

    Transmutation systems are able to reduce the radio-toxicity and amount of High-Level Wastes (HLW), which are the main concerns related to the peaceful use of nuclear energy, and therefore they should make nuclear energy more easily acceptable by population. A transmutation system consists of a sub-critical fast reactor, an accelerator and a Target System, where the spallation reactions needed to sustain the chain reaction take place. Three options were proposed for the Target System within the European project PDS-XADS (Preliminary Design Studies on an Experimental Accelerator Driven System): window, windowless and solid. This paper describes the constraints taken into account in the design of the windowless Target System for the large Lead-Bismuth-Eutectic cooled XADS and deals with the results of the calculations performed to assess the behaviour of the target during some accident sequences related to pump trips. (authors)

  19. Code System for Toxic Gas Accident Analysis.

    2001-09-24

    Version 00 TOXRISK is an interactive program developed to aid in the evaluation of nuclear power plant control room habitability in the event of a nearby toxic material release. The program uses a model which is consistent with the approach described in the NRC Regulatory Guide 1.78. Release of the gas is treated as an initial puff followed by a continuous plume. The relative proportions of these as well as the plume release rate aremore » supplied by the user. Transport of the gas is modeled as a Gaussian distribution and occurs through the action of a constant velocity, constant direction wind. Dispersion or diffusion of the gas during transport is described by modified Pasquill-Gifford dispersion coefficients. Great flexibility is afforded the user in specifying the release description, meteorological conditions, relative geometry of the accident and plant, and the plant ventilation system characteristics. Two types of simulation can be performed: multiple case (parametric) studies and probabilistic analyses.« less

  20. Analysis of the temporal properties in car accident time series

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Telesca, Luciano; Lovallo, Michele

    2008-05-01

    In this paper we study the time-clustering behavior of sequences of car accidents, using data from a freely available database in the internet. The Allan Factor analysis, which is a well-suited method to investigate time-dynamical behaviors in point processes, has revealed that the car accident sequences are characterized by a general time-scaling behavior, with the presence of cyclic components. These results indicate that the time dynamics of the events are not Poissonian but long range correlated with periodicities ranging from 12 h to 1 year.

  1. Severe Accident Analysis Code SAMPSON Improvement for IMPACT Project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ujita, Hiroshi; Ikeda, Takashi; Naitoh, Masanori

    SAMPSON is the integral code for severe accident analysis in detail with modular structure, developed in the IMPACT project. Each module can run independently and communication with multiple analysis modules supervised by the analysis control module makes an integral analysis possible. At the end of Phase 1 (1994-1997), demonstration simulations by combinations of up to 11 analysis modules had been performed and physical models in the code had been verified by separate-effect tests and validated by inegral tests. Multi-dimensional mechanistic models and theoretical-based conservation equations have been applied, during Phase 2 (1998-2000). New models for Accident Management evaluation have been also developed. Verificaton and validation have been performed by analysing separate-effect tests and inegral tests, while actual plant analyses are also being in progress.

  2. Analysis of Crew Fatigue in AIA Guantanamo Bay Aviation Accident

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rosekind, Mark R.; Gregory, Kevin B.; Miller, Donna L.; Co, Elizabeth L.; Lebacqz, J. Victor; Statler, Irving C. (Technical Monitor)

    1994-01-01

    Flight operations can engender fatigue, which can affect flight crew performance, vigilance, and mood. The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) requested the NASA Fatigue Countermeasures Program to analyze crew fatigue factors in an aviation accident that occurred at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba. There are specific fatigue factors that can be considered in such investigations: cumulative sleep loss, continuous hours of wakefulness prior to the incident or accident, and the time of day at which the accident occurred. Data from the NTSB Human Performance Investigator's Factual Report, the Operations Group Chairman's Factual Report, and the Flight 808 Crew Statements were analyzed, using conservative estimates and averages to reconcile discrepancies among the sources. Analysis of these data determined the following: the entire crew displayed cumulative sleep loss, operated during an extended period of continuous wakefulness, and obtained sleep at times in opposition to the circadian disposition for sleep, and that the accident occurred in the afternoon window of physiological sleepiness. In addition to these findings, evidence that fatigue affected performance was suggested by the cockpit voice recorder (CVR) transcript as well as in the captain's testimony. Examples from the CVR showed degraded decision-making skills, fixation, and slowed responses, all of which can be affected by fatigue; also, the captain testified to feeling "lethargic and indifferent" just prior to the accident. Therefore, the sleep/wake history data supports the hypothesis that fatigue was a factor that affected crewmembers' performance. Furthermore, the examples from the CVR and the captain's testimony support the hypothesis that the fatigue had an impact on specific actions involved in the occurrence of the accident.

  3. A DOE-STD-3009 hazard and accident analysis methodology for non-reactor nuclear facilities

    SciTech Connect

    MAHN,JEFFREY A.; WALKER,SHARON ANN

    2000-03-23

    This paper demonstrates the use of appropriate consequence evaluation criteria in conjunction with generic likelihood of occurrence data to produce consistent hazard analysis results for nonreactor nuclear facility Safety Analysis Reports (SAR). An additional objective is to demonstrate the use of generic likelihood of occurrence data as a means for deriving defendable accident sequence frequencies, thereby enabling the screening of potentially incredible events (<10{sup {minus}6} per year) from the design basis accident envelope. Generic likelihood of occurrence data has been used successfully in performing SAR hazard and accident analyses for two nonreactor nuclear facilities at Sandia National Laboratories. DOE-STD-3009-94 addresses and even encourages use of a qualitative binning technique for deriving and ranking nonreactor nuclear facility risks. However, qualitative techniques invariably lead to reviewer requests for more details associated with consequence or likelihood of occurrence bin assignments in the test of the SAR. Hazard analysis data displayed in simple worksheet format generally elicits questions about not only the assumptions behind the data, but also the quantitative bases for the assumptions themselves (engineering judgment may not be considered sufficient by some reviewers). This is especially true where the criteria for qualitative binning of likelihood of occurrence involves numerical ranges. Oftentimes reviewers want to see calculations or at least a discussion of event frequencies or failure probabilities to support likelihood of occurrence bin assignments. This may become a significant point of contention for events that have been binned as incredible. This paper will show how the use of readily available generic data can avoid many of the reviewer questions that will inevitably arise from strictly qualitative analyses, while not significantly increasing the overall burden on the analyst.

  4. INDUSTRIAL/MILITARY ACTIVITY-INITIATED ACCIDENT SCREENING ANALYSIS

    SciTech Connect

    D.A. Kalinich

    1999-09-27

    Impacts due to nearby installations and operations were determined in the Preliminary MGDS Hazards Analysis (CRWMS M&O 1996) to be potentially applicable to the proposed repository at Yucca Mountain. This determination was conservatively based on limited knowledge of the potential activities ongoing on or off the Nevada Test Site (NTS). It is intended that the Industrial/Military Activity-Initiated Accident Screening Analysis provided herein will meet the requirements of the ''Standard Review Plan for the Review of Safety Analysis Reports for Nuclear Power Plants'' (NRC 1987) in establishing whether this external event can be screened from further consideration or must be included as a design basis event (DBE) in the development of accident scenarios for the Monitored Geologic Repository (MGR). This analysis only considers issues related to preclosure radiological safety. Issues important to waste isolation as related to impact from nearby installations will be covered in the MGR performance assessment.

  5. APR1400 Reactivity Insertion Accident Analysis Using KNAP

    SciTech Connect

    Chang-Keun, Yang; Yo-Han, Kim; Chang-Kyung, Sung

    2006-07-01

    The Korea Electric Power Research Institute had decided to develop the new safety analysis code system for the Optimized Power Reactor 1000 (OPR1000) in Korea by the fund of the Ministry of Commerce, Industry and Energy. In this paper, some results of the Advanced Power Reactor 1400(APR1400) using the RETRAN code for some reactivity insertion accident are introduced to expand application from safety analysis experience of OPR1000. (authors)

  6. The influence of modeling assumptions on the modal analysis of vocal fold structures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cook, Douglas D.; Mongeau, Luc

    2005-09-01

    Finite-element modal analysis studies of several vocal fold structural models were performed in vacuo under a variety of assumptions. The sensitivity of the vocal folds to changes in geometry and tissue properties was investigated. The Ritz method and the finite-element code ADINA were used to perform linear modal analysis of two-dimensional and three-dimensional models of the human vocal folds. The results allow for comparison and evaluation of various modeling approaches. In particular, the influence of geometrical constraints was shown to introduce errors of varying magnitude depending on the degree of anisotropy of the vocal fold tissue. [Research supported by the National Institute for Deafness and Other Communication Disorders.

  7. Accident analysis of heavy water cooled thorium breeder reactor

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yulianti, Yanti; Su'ud, Zaki; Takaki, Naoyuki

    2015-04-01

    power reactor has a peak value before reactor has new balance condition. The analysis showed that temperatures of fuel and claddings during accident are still below limitations which are in secure condition.

  8. Accident analysis of heavy water cooled thorium breeder reactor

    SciTech Connect

    Yulianti, Yanti; Su’ud, Zaki; Takaki, Naoyuki

    2015-04-16

    power reactor has a peak value before reactor has new balance condition. The analysis showed that temperatures of fuel and claddings during accident are still below limitations which are in secure condition.

  9. Calculation notes for surface leak resulting in pool, TWRS FSAR accident analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Hall, B.W.

    1996-09-25

    This document includes the calculations performed to quantify the risk associated with the unmitigated and mitigated accident scenarios described in the TWRS FSAR for the accident analysis titled: Surface Leaks Resulting in Pool.

  10. Calculation Notes for Subsurface Leak Resulting in Pool, TWRS FSAR Accident Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Hall, B.W.

    1996-09-25

    This document includes the calculations performed to quantify the risk associated with the unmitigated and mitigated accident scenarios described in the TWRS FSAR for the accident analysis titled: Subsurface Leaks Resulting in Pool.

  11. Sensitivity to censored-at-random assumption in the analysis of time-to-event endpoints.

    PubMed

    Lipkovich, Ilya; Ratitch, Bohdana; O'Kelly, Michael

    2016-05-01

    Over the past years, significant progress has been made in developing statistically rigorous methods to implement clinically interpretable sensitivity analyses for assumptions about the missingness mechanism in clinical trials for continuous and (to a lesser extent) for binary or categorical endpoints. Studies with time-to-event outcomes have received much less attention. However, such studies can be similarly challenged with respect to the robustness and integrity of primary analysis conclusions when a substantial number of subjects withdraw from treatment prematurely prior to experiencing an event of interest. We discuss how the methods that are widely used for primary analyses of time-to-event outcomes could be extended in a clinically meaningful and interpretable way to stress-test the assumption of ignorable censoring. We focus on a 'tipping point' approach, the objective of which is to postulate sensitivity parameters with a clear clinical interpretation and to identify a setting of these parameters unfavorable enough towards the experimental treatment to nullify a conclusion that was favorable to that treatment. Robustness of primary analysis results can then be assessed based on clinical plausibility of the scenario represented by the tipping point. We study several approaches for conducting such analyses based on multiple imputation using parametric, semi-parametric, and non-parametric imputation models and evaluate their operating characteristics via simulation. We argue that these methods are valuable tools for sensitivity analyses of time-to-event data and conclude that the method based on piecewise exponential imputation model of survival has some advantages over other methods studied here. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  12. Sensitivity to censored-at-random assumption in the analysis of time-to-event endpoints.

    PubMed

    Lipkovich, Ilya; Ratitch, Bohdana; O'Kelly, Michael

    2016-05-01

    Over the past years, significant progress has been made in developing statistically rigorous methods to implement clinically interpretable sensitivity analyses for assumptions about the missingness mechanism in clinical trials for continuous and (to a lesser extent) for binary or categorical endpoints. Studies with time-to-event outcomes have received much less attention. However, such studies can be similarly challenged with respect to the robustness and integrity of primary analysis conclusions when a substantial number of subjects withdraw from treatment prematurely prior to experiencing an event of interest. We discuss how the methods that are widely used for primary analyses of time-to-event outcomes could be extended in a clinically meaningful and interpretable way to stress-test the assumption of ignorable censoring. We focus on a 'tipping point' approach, the objective of which is to postulate sensitivity parameters with a clear clinical interpretation and to identify a setting of these parameters unfavorable enough towards the experimental treatment to nullify a conclusion that was favorable to that treatment. Robustness of primary analysis results can then be assessed based on clinical plausibility of the scenario represented by the tipping point. We study several approaches for conducting such analyses based on multiple imputation using parametric, semi-parametric, and non-parametric imputation models and evaluate their operating characteristics via simulation. We argue that these methods are valuable tools for sensitivity analyses of time-to-event data and conclude that the method based on piecewise exponential imputation model of survival has some advantages over other methods studied here. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. PMID:26997353

  13. Offsite radiological consequence analysis for the bounding flammable gas accident

    SciTech Connect

    CARRO, C.A.

    2003-03-19

    The purpose of this analysis is to calculate the offsite radiological consequence of the bounding flammable gas accident. DOE-STD-3009-94, ''Preparation Guide for U.S. Department of Energy Nonreactor Nuclear Facility Documented Safety Analyses'', requires the formal quantification of a limited subset of accidents representing a complete set of bounding conditions. The results of these analyses are then evaluated to determine if they challenge the DOE-STD-3009-94, Appendix A, ''Evaluation Guideline,'' of 25 rem total effective dose equivalent in order to identify and evaluate safety class structures, systems, and components. The bounding flammable gas accident is a detonation in a single-shell tank (SST). A detonation versus a deflagration was selected for analysis because the faster flame speed of a detonation can potentially result in a larger release of respirable material. As will be shown, the consequences of a detonation in either an SST or a double-shell tank (DST) are approximately equal. A detonation in an SST was selected as the bounding condition because the estimated respirable release masses are the same and because the doses per unit quantity of waste inhaled are generally greater for SSTs than for DSTs. Appendix A contains a DST analysis for comparison purposes.

  14. Road Traffic Accident Analysis of Ajmer City Using Remote Sensing and GIS Technology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bhalla, P.; Tripathi, S.; Palria, S.

    2014-12-01

    With advancement in technology, new and sophisticated models of vehicle are available and their numbers are increasing day by day. A traffic accident has multi-facet characteristics associated with it. In India 93% of crashes occur due to Human induced factor (wholly or partly). For proper traffic accident analysis use of GIS technology has become an inevitable tool. The traditional accident database is a summary spreadsheet format using codes and mileposts to denote location, type and severity of accidents. Geo-referenced accident database is location-referenced. It incorporates a GIS graphical interface with the accident information to allow for query searches on various accident attributes. Ajmer city, headquarter of Ajmer district, Rajasthan has been selected as the study area. According to Police records, 1531 accidents occur during 2009-2013. Maximum accident occurs in 2009 and the maximum death in 2013. Cars, jeeps, auto, pickup and tempo are mostly responsible for accidents and that the occurrence of accidents is mostly concentrated between 4PM to 10PM. GIS has proved to be a good tool for analyzing multifaceted nature of accidents. While road safety is a critical issue, yet it is handled in an adhoc manner. This Study is a demonstration of application of GIS for developing an efficient database on road accidents taking Ajmer City as a study. If such type of database is developed for other cities, a proper analysis of accidents can be undertaken and suitable management strategies for traffic regulation can be successfully proposed.

  15. Civil helicopter wire strike assessment study. Volume 2: Accident analysis briefs

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tuomela, C. H.; Brennan, M. F.

    1980-01-01

    A description and analysis of each of the 208 civil helicopter wire strike accidents reported to the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) for the ten year period 1970-1979 is given. The accident analysis briefs were based on pilot reports, FAA investigation reports, and such accident photographs as were made available. Briefs were grouped by year and, within year, by NTSB accident report number.

  16. Enhanced Accident Tolerant Fuels for LWRS - A Preliminary Systems Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Gilles Youinou; R. Sonat Sen

    2013-09-01

    The severe accident at Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plants illustrates the need for continuous improvements through developing and implementing technologies that contribute to safe, reliable and cost-effective operation of the nuclear fleet. Development of enhanced accident tolerant fuel contributes to this effort. These fuels, in comparison with the standard zircaloy – UO2 system currently used by the LWR industry, should be designed such that they tolerate loss of active cooling in the core for a longer time period (depending on the LWR system and accident scenario) while maintaining or improving the fuel performance during normal operations, operational transients, and design-basis events. This report presents a preliminary systems analysis related to most of these concepts. The potential impacts of these innovative LWR fuels on the front-end of the fuel cycle, on the reactor operation and on the back-end of the fuel cycle are succinctly described without having the pretension of being exhaustive. Since the design of these various concepts is still a work in progress, this analysis can only be preliminary and could be updated as the designs converge on their respective final version.

  17. Accident Analysis for the Plutonium Finishing Plant Polycube Stabilization Process

    SciTech Connect

    NELSON-MAKI, B.B.

    2001-05-14

    The Polycube Stabilization Project involves low temperature oxidation, without combustion, of polystyrene cubes using the production muffle furnaces in Glovebox HC-21C located in the Remote Mechanical ''C'' (RMC) Line in Room 230A in the 234-52 Facility. Polycubes are polystyrene cubes containing various concentrations of plutonium and uranium oxides. Hundreds of these cubes were manufactured for criticality experiments, and currently exist as unstabilized storage forms at the Plutonium Finishing Plant (PFP). This project is designed to stabilize and prepare the polycube material for stable storage using a process very similar to the earlier processing of sludges in these furnaces. The significant difference is the quantity of hydrogenous material present, and the need to place additional controls on the heating rate of the material. This calculation note documents the analyses of the Representative Accidents identified in Section 2.4.4 of Hazards Analysis for the Plutonium Finishing Plant Polycube Stabilization Process, HNF-7278 (HNF 2000). These two accidents, ''Deflagration in Glovebox HC-21C due to Loss of Power'' and ''Seismic Failure of Glovebox HC-21C'', will be further assessed in this accident analysis.

  18. Comprehensive Analysis of Two Downburst-Related Aircraft Accidents

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shen, J.; Parks, E. K.; Bach, R. E.

    1996-01-01

    Although downbursts have been identified as the major cause of a number of aircraft takeoff and landing accidents, only the 1985 Dallas/Fort Worth (DFW) and the more recent (July 1994) Charlotte, North Carolina, landing accidents provided sufficient onboard recorded data to perform a comprehensive analysis of the downburst phenomenon. The first step in the present analysis was the determination of the downburst wind components. Once the wind components and their gradients were determined, the degrading effect of the wind environment on the airplane's performance was calculated. This wind-shear-induced aircraft performance degradation, sometimes called the F-factor, was broken down into two components F(sub 1) and F(sub 2), representing the effect of the horizontal wind gradient and the vertical wind velocity, respectively. In both the DFW and Charlotte cases, F(sub 1) was found to be the dominant causal factor of the accident. Next, the aircraft in the two cases were mathematically modeled using the longitudinal equations of motion and the appropriate aerodynamic parameters. Based on the aircraft model and the determined winds, the aircraft response to the recorded pilot inputs showed good agreement with the onboard recordings. Finally, various landing abort strategies were studied. It was concluded that the most acceptable landing abort strategy from both an analytical and pilot's standpoint was to hold constant nose-up pitch attitude while operating at maximum engine thrust.

  19. Accident patterns for construction-related workers: a cluster analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liao, Chia-Wen; Tyan, Yaw-Yauan

    2012-01-01

    The construction industry has been identified as one of the most hazardous industries. The risk of constructionrelated workers is far greater than that in a manufacturing based industry. However, some steps can be taken to reduce worker risk through effective injury prevention strategies. In this article, k-means clustering methodology is employed in specifying the factors related to different worker types and in identifying the patterns of industrial occupational accidents. Accident reports during the period 1998 to 2008 are extracted from case reports of the Northern Region Inspection Office of the Council of Labor Affairs of Taiwan. The results show that the cluster analysis can indicate some patterns of occupational injuries in the construction industry. Inspection plans should be proposed according to the type of construction-related workers. The findings provide a direction for more effective inspection strategies and injury prevention programs.

  20. Accident patterns for construction-related workers: a cluster analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liao, Chia-Wen; Tyan, Yaw-Yauan

    2011-12-01

    The construction industry has been identified as one of the most hazardous industries. The risk of constructionrelated workers is far greater than that in a manufacturing based industry. However, some steps can be taken to reduce worker risk through effective injury prevention strategies. In this article, k-means clustering methodology is employed in specifying the factors related to different worker types and in identifying the patterns of industrial occupational accidents. Accident reports during the period 1998 to 2008 are extracted from case reports of the Northern Region Inspection Office of the Council of Labor Affairs of Taiwan. The results show that the cluster analysis can indicate some patterns of occupational injuries in the construction industry. Inspection plans should be proposed according to the type of construction-related workers. The findings provide a direction for more effective inspection strategies and injury prevention programs.

  1. Accident consequences analysis of the HYLIFE-II inertial fusion energy power plant design

    SciTech Connect

    Reyes, S; Gomez del Rio, J; Sanz, J

    2000-02-23

    Previous studies of the safety and environmental (S and E) aspects of the HYLIFE-II inertial fusion energy (IFE) power plant design have used simplistic assumptions in order to estimate radioactivity releases under accident conditions. Conservatisms associated with these traditional analyses can mask the actual behavior of the plant and have revealed the need for more accurate modeling and analysis of accident conditions and radioactivity mobilization mechanisms. In the present work a set of computer codes traditionally used for magnetic fusion safety analyses (CHEMCON, MELCOR) has been applied for simulating accident conditions in a simple model of the HYLIFE-II IFE design. Here the authors consider a severe lost of coolant accident (LOCA) producing simultaneous failures of the beam tubes (providing a pathway for radioactivity release from the vacuum vessel towards the containment) and of the two barriers surrounding the chamber (inner shielding and containment building it self). Even though containment failure would be a very unlikely event it would be needed in order to produce significant off-site doses. CHEMCON code allows calculation of long-term temperature transients in fusion reactor first wall, blanket, and shield structures resulting from decay heating. MELCOR is used to simulate a wide range of physical phenomena including thermal-hydraulics, heat transfer, aerosol physics and fusion product release and transport. The results of these calculations show that the estimated off-site dose is less than 6 mSv (0.6 rem), which is well below the value of 10 mSv (1 rem) given by the DOE Fusion Safety Standards for protection of the public from exposure to radiation during off-normal conditions.

  2. Accident consequences analysis of the HYLIFE-II inertial fusion energy power plant design

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reyes, S.; Latkowski, J. F.; Gomez del Rio, J.; Sanz, J.

    2001-05-01

    Previous studies of the safety and environmental aspects of the HYLIFE-II inertial fusion energy power plant design have used simplistic assumptions in order to estimate radioactivity releases under accident conditions. Conservatisms associated with these traditional analyses can mask the actual behavior of the plant and have revealed the need for more accurate modeling and analysis of accident conditions and radioactivity mobilization mechanisms. In the present work, computer codes traditionally used for magnetic fusion safety analyses (CHEMCON, MELCOR) have been applied for simulating accident conditions in a simple model of the HYLIFE-II IFE design. Here we consider a severe loss of coolant accident (LOCA) in conjunction with simultaneous failures of the beam tubes (providing a pathway for radioactivity release from the vacuum vessel towards the confinement) and of the two barriers surrounding the chamber (inner shielding and confinement building itself). Even though confinement failure would be a very unlikely event it would be needed in order to produce significant off-site doses. CHEMCON code allows calculation of long-term temperature transients in fusion reactor first wall, blanket, and shield structures resulting from decay heating. MELCOR is used to simulate a wide range of physical phenomena including thermal-hydraulics, heat transfer, aerosol physics and fusion product transport and release. The results of these calculations show that the estimated off-site dose is less than 5 mSv (0.5 rem), which is well below the value of 10 mSv (1 rem) given by the DOE Fusion Safety Standards for protection of the public from exposure to radiation during off-normal conditions.

  3. Analysis of Three Mile Island-Unit 2 accident

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1980-03-01

    The Nuclear Safety Analysis Center (NSAC) of the Electric Power Research Institute has analyzed the Three Mile Island-2 accident. Early results of this analysis were a brief narrative summary, issued in mid-May 1979 and an initial version of this report issued later in 1979 as noted in the Foreword. The present report is a revised version of the 1979 report, containing summaries, a highly detailed sequence of events, a comparison of that sequence of events with those from other sources, 25 appendices, references and a list of abbreviations and acronyms. A matrix of equipment and system actions is included as a folded insert.

  4. Loss-of-coolant accident analysis of the Savannah River new production reactor design

    SciTech Connect

    Maloney, K.J.; Pryor, R.J.

    1990-11-01

    This document contains the loss-of-coolant accident analysis of the representative design for the Savannah River heavy water new production reactor. Included in this document are descriptions of the primary system, reactor vessel, and loss-of-coolant accident computer input models, the results of the cold leg and hot leg loss-of-coolant accident analyses, and the results of sensitivity calculations for the cold leg loss-of-coolant accident. 5 refs., 50 figs., 4 tabs.

  5. Stable Isotope Analysis Challenges Wasp-Waist Food Web Assumptions in an Upwelling Pelagic Ecosystem

    PubMed Central

    Madigan, Daniel J.; Carlisle, Aaron B.; Dewar, Heidi; Snodgrass, Owyn E.; Litvin, Steven Y.; Micheli, Fiorenza; Block, Barbara A.

    2012-01-01

    Eastern boundary currents are often described as ‘wasp-waist’ ecosystems in which one or few mid-level forage species support a high diversity of larger predators that are highly susceptible to fluctuations in prey biomass. The assumption of wasp-waist control has not been empirically tested in all such ecosystems. This study used stable isotope analysis to test the hypothesis of wasp-waist control in the southern California Current large marine ecosystem (CCLME). We analyzed prey and predator tissue for δ13C and δ15N and used Bayesian mixing models to provide estimates of CCLME trophic dynamics from 2007–2010. Our results show high omnivory, planktivory by some predators, and a higher degree of trophic connectivity than that suggested by the wasp-waist model. Based on this study period, wasp-waist models oversimplify trophic dynamics within the CCLME and potentially other upwelling, pelagic ecosystems. Higher trophic connectivity in the CCLME likely increases ecosystem stability and resilience to perturbations. PMID:22977729

  6. Levels of Simplification. The Use of Assumptions, Restrictions, and Constraints in Engineering Analysis.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Whitaker, Stephen

    1988-01-01

    Describes the use of assumptions, restrictions, and constraints in solving difficult analytical problems in engineering. Uses the Navier-Stokes equations as examples to demonstrate use, derivations, advantages, and disadvantages of the technique. (RT)

  7. Predicting System Accidents with Model Analysis During Hybrid Simulation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Malin, Jane T.; Fleming, Land D.; Throop, David R.

    2002-01-01

    Standard discrete event simulation is commonly used to identify system bottlenecks and starving and blocking conditions in resources and services. The CONFIG hybrid discrete/continuous simulation tool can simulate such conditions in combination with inputs external to the simulation. This provides a means for evaluating the vulnerability to system accidents of a system's design, operating procedures, and control software. System accidents are brought about by complex unexpected interactions among multiple system failures , faulty or misleading sensor data, and inappropriate responses of human operators or software. The flows of resource and product materials play a central role in the hazardous situations that may arise in fluid transport and processing systems. We describe the capabilities of CONFIG for simulation-time linear circuit analysis of fluid flows in the context of model-based hazard analysis. We focus on how CONFIG simulates the static stresses in systems of flow. Unlike other flow-related properties, static stresses (or static potentials) cannot be represented by a set of state equations. The distribution of static stresses is dependent on the specific history of operations performed on a system. We discuss the use of this type of information in hazard analysis of system designs.

  8. Extension of ship accident analysis to multiple-package shipments

    SciTech Connect

    Mills, G.S.; Neuhauser, K.S.

    1997-11-01

    Severe ship accidents and the probability of radioactive material release from spent reactor fuel casks were investigated previously. Other forms of RAM, e.g., plutonium oxide powder, may be shipped in large numbers of packagings rather than in one to a few casks. These smaller, more numerous packagings are typically placed in ISO containers for ease of handling, and several ISO containers may be placed in one of several holds of a cargo ship. In such cases, the size of a radioactive release resulting from a severe collision with another ship is determined not by the likelihood of compromising a single, robust package but by the probability that a certain fraction of 10`s or 100`s of individual packagings is compromised. The previous analysis involved a statistical estimation of the frequency of accidents which would result in damage to a cask located in one of seven cargo holds in a collision with another ship. The results were obtained in the form of probabilities (frequencies) of accidents of increasing severity and of release fractions for each level of severity. This paper describes an extension of the same general method in which the multiple packages are assumed to be compacted by an intruding ship`s bow until there is no free space in the hold. At such a point, the remaining energy of the colliding ship is assumed to be dissipated by progressively crushing the RAM packagings and the probability of a particular fraction of package failures is estimated by adaptation of the statistical method used previously. The parameters of a common, well characterized packaging, the 6M with 2R inner containment vessel, were employed as an illustrative example of this analysis method. However, the method is readily applicable to other packagings for which crush strengths have been measured or can be estimated with satisfactory confidence.

  9. A general approach to critical infrastructure accident consequences analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bogalecka, Magda; Kołowrocki, Krzysztof; Soszyńska-Budny, Joanna

    2016-06-01

    The probabilistic general model of critical infrastructure accident consequences including the process of the models of initiating events generated by its accident, the process of environment threats and the process of environment degradation is presented.

  10. Statistical analysis of sudden chemical leakage accidents reported in China between 2006 and 2011.

    PubMed

    Li, Yang; Ping, Hua; Ma, Zhi-Hong; Pan, Li-Gang

    2014-04-01

    According to the data from authoritative sources, 1,400 sudden leakage accidents occurred in China during 2006 to 2011 were investigated, in which, 666 accidents were used for statistical characteristic abstracted with no or little damage. The research results were as follows: (1) Time fluctuation: the yearly number of sudden leakage accidents is shown to be decreasing from 2006 to 2010, and a slightly increase in 2011. Sudden leakage accidents occur mainly in summer, and more than half of the accidents occur from May to September. (2) Regional distribution: the accidents are highly concentrated in the coastal area, in which accidents result from small and medium-sized enterprises more easily than that of the larger ones. (3) Pollutants: hazardous chemicals are up to 95 % of sudden leakage accidents. (4) Steps: transportation represents almost half of the accidents, followed by production, usage, storage, and discard. (5) Pollution and casualties: it is easy to cause environmental pollution and casualties. (6) Causes: more than half of the cases were caused by human factor, followed by management reason, and equipment failure. However, sudden chemical leakage may also be caused by high temperature, rain, wet road, and terrain. (7) The results of principal component analysis: five factors are extracted by the principal component analysis, including pollution, casualties, regional distribution, steps, and month. According to the analysis of the accident, the characteristics, causes, and damages of the sudden leakage accident will be investigated. Therefore, advices for prevention and rescue should be acquired. PMID:24407779

  11. Offsite radiological consequence analysis for the bounding aircraft crash accident

    SciTech Connect

    OBERG, B.D.

    2003-03-22

    The purpose of this calculation note is to quantitatively analyze a bounding aircraft crash accident for comparison to the DOE-STD-3009-94, ''Preparation Guide for U.S. Department of Energy Nonreactor Nuclear Facility Documented Safety Analyses'', Appendix A, Evaluation Guideline of 25 rem. The potential of aircraft impacting a facility was evaluated using the approach given in DOE-STD-3014-96, ''Accident Analysis for Aircraft Crash into Hazardous Facilities''. The following aircraft crash frequencies were determined for the Tank Farms in RPP-11736, ''Assessment Of Aircraft Crash Frequency For The Hanford Site 200 Area Tank Farms'': (1) The total aircraft crash frequency is ''extremely unlikely.'' (2) The general aviation crash frequency is ''extremely unlikely.'' (3) The helicopter crash frequency is ''beyond extremely unlikely.'' (4) For the Hanford Site 200 Areas, other aircraft type, commercial or military, each above ground facility, and any other type of underground facility is ''beyond extremely unlikely.'' As the potential of aircraft crash into the 200 Area tank farms is more frequent than ''beyond extremely unlikely,'' consequence analysis of the aircraft crash is required.

  12. Analysis of longitudinal trials with protocol deviation: a framework for relevant, accessible assumptions, and inference via multiple imputation.

    PubMed

    Carpenter, James R; Roger, James H; Kenward, Michael G

    2013-01-01

    Protocol deviations, for example, due to early withdrawal and noncompliance, are unavoidable in clinical trials. Such deviations often result in missing data. Additional assumptions are then needed for the analysis, and these cannot be definitively verified from the data at hand. Thus, as recognized by recent regulatory guidelines and reports, clarity about these assumptions and their implications is vital for both the primary analysis and framing relevant sensitivity analysis. This article focuses on clinical trials with longitudinal quantitative outcome data. For the target population, we define two estimands, the de jure estimand, "does the treatment work under the best case scenario," and the de facto estimand, "what would be the effect seen in practice." We then carefully define the concept of a deviation from the protocol relevant to the estimand, or for short a deviation. Each patient's postrandomization data can then be divided into predeviation data and postdeviation data. We set out an accessible framework for contextually appropriate assumptions relevant to de facto and de jure estimands, that is, assumptions about the joint distribution of pre- and postdeviation data relevant to the clinical question at hand. We then show how, under these assumptions, multiple imputation provides a practical approach to estimation and inference. We illustrate with data from a longitudinal clinical trial in patients with chronic asthma. PMID:24138436

  13. Thermostats with attitudes: A sociological analysis of assumptions underlying common approaches to reducing residential energy consumption

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nevius, Monica Josefina

    2001-12-01

    This dissertation contributes to the emerging literature in the sociology of energy consumption by answering three important questions about the assumptions underlying popular approaches to reducing energy consumption behavior. The answers are gleaned from data on Wisconsin households gathered in 1998 and 1999. The first question has to do with the efficacy of a "cognitive fix" approach of attempting to change attitudes in hopes of changing behavior, and asks whether energy-related attitudes can predict actual energy savings. The results of a regression analysis of heating energy intensity revealed that a variable measuring respondents' attitudes toward energy conservation predict heating energy intensity, but the effect was overwhelmed by control variables for insulation and draftiness. These and other results offer some support for the cognitive fix approach of attitudinal change as a means of reducing energy consumption. The second question concerns a popular "technological fix" of subsidizing the replacement of manual thermostats with programmable ones, and asks whether programmable thermostats actually save significant home heating energy. The data show that households with programmable thermostats appear to use no less energy than do households with manual thermostats, and that it is behavioral norms, not the type of thermostat, that determine thermostat setting behavior. The results suggest strongly that in aggregate, the installation of programmable thermostats in residential households cannot be expected to deliver promised energy savings. The third question addressed is whether popular knowledge about global warming or the connection between energy use and global environmental change is growing, and if so, what is the likelihood that these prospective socio-cultural shifts might result in increased residential energy conservation. The analysis suggests that, compared to the findings of earlier studies, awareness of the environmental consequences of energy

  14. False assumptions.

    PubMed

    Swaminathan, M

    1997-01-01

    Indian women do not have to be told the benefits of breast feeding or "rescued from the clutches of wicked multinational companies" by international agencies. There is no proof that breast feeding has declined in India; in fact, a 1987 survey revealed that 98% of Indian women breast feed. Efforts to promote breast feeding among the middle classes rely on such initiatives as the "baby friendly" hospital where breast feeding is promoted immediately after birth. This ignores the 76% of Indian women who give birth at home. Blaming this unproved decline in breast feeding on multinational companies distracts attention from more far-reaching and intractable effects of social change. While the Infant Milk Substitutes Act is helpful, it also deflects attention from more pressing issues. Another false assumption is that Indian women are abandoning breast feeding to comply with the demands of employment, but research indicates that most women give up employment for breast feeding, despite the economic cost to their families. Women also seek work in the informal sector to secure the flexibility to meet their child care responsibilities. Instead of being concerned about "teaching" women what they already know about the benefits of breast feeding, efforts should be made to remove the constraints women face as a result of their multiple roles and to empower them with the support of families, governmental policies and legislation, employers, health professionals, and the media. PMID:12321627

  15. Analysis of surface powered haulage accidents, January 1990--July 1996

    SciTech Connect

    Fesak, G.M.; Breland, R.M.; Spadaro, J.

    1996-12-31

    This report addresses surface haulage accidents that occurred between January 1990 and July 1996 involving haulage trucks (including over-the-road trucks), front-end-loaders, scrapers, utility trucks, water trucks, and other mobile haulage equipment. The study includes quarries, open pits and surface coal mines utilizing self-propelled mobile equipment to transport personnel, supplies, rock, overburden material, ore, mine waste, or coal for processing. A total of 4,397 accidents were considered. This report summarizes the major factors that led to the accidents and recommends accident prevention methods to reduce the frequency of these accidents.

  16. The Use of Randomisation in Educational Research and Evaluation: A Critical Analysis of Underlying Assumptions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Davies, Randall S.; Williams, David; Yanchar, Stephen

    2008-01-01

    This article considers the underlying assumptions related to the use of random assignment in educational research and evaluation; more specifically, the ability of random assignment to create similar comparison groups for the purpose of determining the effectiveness of educational programmes. In theory, randomly assigning individuals to comparison…

  17. Decontamination analysis of the NUWAX-83 accident site using DECON

    SciTech Connect

    Tawil, J.J.

    1983-11-01

    This report presents an analysis of the site restoration options for the NUWAX-83 site, at which an exercise was conducted involving a simulated nuclear weapons accident. This analysis was performed using a computer program deveoped by Pacific Northwest Laboratory. The computer program, called DECON, was designed to assist personnel engaged in the planning of decontamination activities. The many features of DECON that are used in this report demonstrate its potential usefulness as a site restoration planning tool. Strategies that are analyzed with DECON include: (1) employing a Quick-Vac option, under which selected surfaces are vacuumed before they can be rained on; (2) protecting surfaces against precipitation; (3) prohibiting specific operations on selected surfaces; (4) requiring specific methods to be used on selected surfaces; (5) evaluating the trade-off between cleanup standards and decontamination costs; and (6) varying of the cleanup standards according to expected exposure to surface.

  18. An Accident Precursor Analysis Process Tailored for NASA Space Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Groen, Frank; Stamatelatos, Michael; Dezfuli, Homayoon; Maggio, Gaspare

    2010-01-01

    Accident Precursor Analysis (APA) serves as the bridge between existing risk modeling activities, which are often based on historical or generic failure statistics, and system anomalies, which provide crucial information about the failure mechanisms that are actually operative in the system and which may differ in frequency or type from those in the various models. These discrepancies between the models (perceived risk) and the system (actual risk) provide the leading indication of an underappreciated risk. This paper presents an APA process developed specifically for NASA Earth-to-Orbit space systems. The purpose of the process is to identify and characterize potential sources of system risk as evidenced by anomalous events which, although not necessarily presenting an immediate safety impact, may indicate that an unknown or insufficiently understood risk-significant condition exists in the system. Such anomalous events are considered accident precursors because they signal the potential for severe consequences that may occur in the future, due to causes that are discernible from their occurrence today. Their early identification allows them to be integrated into the overall system risk model used to intbrm decisions relating to safety.

  19. An analysis of evacuation options for nuclear accidents

    SciTech Connect

    Tawil, J.J.; Strenge, D.L.; Schultz, R.W.

    1987-11-01

    In this report we consider the threat posed by the accidental release of radionuclides from a nuclear power plant. The objective is to establish relationships between radiation dose and the cost of evacuation under a wide variety of conditions. The dose can almost always be reduced by evacuating the population from a larger area. However, extending the evacuation zone outward will cause evacuation costs to increase. The purpose of this analysis was to provide the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) a data base for evaluating whether implementation costs and risks averted could be used to justify evacuation at lower doses. The procedures used and results of these analyses are being made available as background information for use by others. We develop cost/dose relationships for 54 scenarios that are based upon the severity of the reactor accident, meteorological conditions during the release of radionuclides into the environment, and the angular width of the evacuation zone. The 54 scenarios are derived from combinations of three accident severity levels, six meteorological conditions and evacuation zone widths of 70{degree}, 90{degree}, and 180{degree}.

  20. Analysis of Modeling Assumptions used in Production Cost Models for Renewable Integration Studies

    SciTech Connect

    Stoll, Brady; Brinkman, Gregory; Townsend, Aaron; Bloom, Aaron

    2016-01-01

    Renewable energy integration studies have been published for many different regions exploring the question of how higher penetration of renewable energy will impact the electric grid. These studies each make assumptions about the systems they are analyzing; however the effect of many of these assumptions has not been yet been examined and published. In this paper we analyze the impact of modeling assumptions in renewable integration studies, including the optimization method used (linear or mixed-integer programming) and the temporal resolution of the dispatch stage (hourly or sub-hourly). We analyze each of these assumptions on a large and a small system and determine the impact of each assumption on key metrics including the total production cost, curtailment of renewables, CO2 emissions, and generator starts and ramps. Additionally, we identified the impact on these metrics if a four-hour ahead commitment step is included before the dispatch step and the impact of retiring generators to reduce the degree to which the system is overbuilt. We find that the largest effect of these assumptions is at the unit level on starts and ramps, particularly for the temporal resolution, and saw a smaller impact at the aggregate level on system costs and emissions. For each fossil fuel generator type we measured the average capacity started, average run-time per start, and average number of ramps. Linear programming results saw up to a 20% difference in number of starts and average run time of traditional generators, and up to a 4% difference in the number of ramps, when compared to mixed-integer programming. Utilizing hourly dispatch instead of sub-hourly dispatch saw no difference in coal or gas CC units for either start metric, while gas CT units had a 5% increase in the number of starts and 2% increase in the average on-time per start. The number of ramps decreased up to 44%. The smallest effect seen was on the CO2 emissions and total production cost, with a 0.8% and 0

  1. General Growth Mixture Analysis of Adolescents' Developmental Trajectories of Anxiety: The Impact of Untested Invariance Assumptions on Substantive Interpretations

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Morin, Alexandre J. S.; Maiano, Christophe; Nagengast, Benjamin; Marsh, Herbert W.; Morizot, Julien; Janosz, Michel

    2011-01-01

    Substantively, this study investigates potential heterogeneity in the developmental trajectories of anxiety in adolescence. Methodologically, this study demonstrates the usefulness of general growth mixture analysis (GGMA) in addressing these issues and illustrates the impact of untested invariance assumptions on substantive interpretations. This…

  2. The Effect of the Violation of the Assumption of Independence When Combining Correlation Coefficients in a Meta-Analysis.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tracz, Susan M.; Elmore, Patricia B.

    Meta-analysis is a technique for combining the summary statistics from previously conducted research studies to indicate the direction of results and provide an index of the magnitude of effect size. This paper focuses on the effect of the violation of the assumption of independence (that the value of any included statistic is in no way…

  3. Summary of the SRS Severe Accident Analysis Program, 1987--1992

    SciTech Connect

    Long, T.A.; Hyder, M.L.; Britt, T.E.; Allison, D.K.; Chow, S.; Graves, R.D.; DeWald, A.B. Jr.; Monson, P.R. Jr.; Wooten, L.A.

    1992-11-01

    The Severe Accident Analysis Program (SAAP) is a program of experimental and analytical studies aimed at characterizing severe accidents that might occur in the Savannah River Site Production Reactors. The goals of the Severe Accident Analysis Program are: To develop an understanding of severe accidents in SRS reactors that is adequate to support safety documentation for these reactors, including the Safety Analysis Report (SAR), the Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), and other studies evaluating the safety of reactor operation; To provide tools and bases for the evaluation of existing or proposed safety related equipment in the SRS reactors; To provide bases for the development of accident management procedures for the SRS reactors; To develop and maintain on the site a sufficient body of knowledge, including documents, computer codes, and cognizant engineers and scientists, that can be used to authoritatively resolve questions or issues related to reactor accidents. The Severe Accident Analysis Program was instituted in 1987 and has already produced a substantial amount of information, and specialized calculational tools. Products of the Severe Accident Analysis Program (listed in Section 9 of this report) have been used in the development of the Safety Analysis Report (SAR) and the Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), and in the development of technical specifications for the SRS reactors. A staff of about seven people is currently involved directly in the program and in providing input on severe accidents to other SRS activities.

  4. An Analysis of U.S. Civil Rotorcraft Accidents by Cost and Injury (1990-1996)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Iseler, Laura; DeMaio, Joe; Rutkowski, Michael (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    A study of rotorcraft accidents was conducted to identify safety issues and research areas that might lead to a reduction in rotorcraft accidents and fatalities. The primary source of data was summaries of National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) accident reports. From 1990 to 1996, the NTSB documented 1396 civil rotorcraft accidents in the United States in which 491 people were killed. The rotorcraft data were compared to airline and general aviation data to determine the relative safety of rotorcraft compared to other segments of the aviation industry. In depth analysis of the rotorcraft data addressed demographics, mission, and operational factors. Rotorcraft were found to have an accident rate about ten times that of commercial airliners and about the same as that of general aviation. The likelihood that an accident would be fatal was about equal for all three classes of operation. The most dramatic division in rotorcraft accidents is between flights flown by private pilots versus professional pilots. Private pilots, flying low cost aircraft in benign environments, have accidents that are due, in large part, to their own errors. Professional pilots, in contrast, are more likely to have accidents that are a result of exacting missions or use of specialized equipment. For both groups judgement error is more likely to lead to a fatal accident than are other types of causes. Several approaches to improving the rotorcraft accident rate are recommended. These mostly address improvement in the training of new pilots and improving the safety awareness of private pilots.

  5. Accident sequence analysis for sites producing and storing explosives.

    PubMed

    Papazoglou, Ioannis A; Aneziris, Olga; Konstandinidou, Myrto; Giakoumatos, Ieronymos

    2009-11-01

    This paper presents a QRA-based approach for assessing and evaluating the safety of installations handling explosive substances. Comprehensive generic lists of immediate causes and initiating events of detonation and deflagration of explosive substances as well as safety measures preventing these explosions are developed. Initiating events and corresponding measures are grouped under the more general categories of explosion due to shock wave, explosion due to mechanical energy, thermal energy, electrical energy, chemical energy, and electromagnetic radiation. Generic accident sequences are developed using Event Trees. This analysis is adapted to plant-specific conditions and potentially additional protective measures are rank-ordered in terms of the induced reduction in the frequency of explosion, by including also uncertainty. This approach has been applied to 14 plants in Greece with very satisfactory results. PMID:19819362

  6. Accident sequence analysis for sites producing and storing explosives.

    PubMed

    Papazoglou, Ioannis A; Aneziris, Olga; Konstandinidou, Myrto; Giakoumatos, Ieronymos

    2009-11-01

    This paper presents a QRA-based approach for assessing and evaluating the safety of installations handling explosive substances. Comprehensive generic lists of immediate causes and initiating events of detonation and deflagration of explosive substances as well as safety measures preventing these explosions are developed. Initiating events and corresponding measures are grouped under the more general categories of explosion due to shock wave, explosion due to mechanical energy, thermal energy, electrical energy, chemical energy, and electromagnetic radiation. Generic accident sequences are developed using Event Trees. This analysis is adapted to plant-specific conditions and potentially additional protective measures are rank-ordered in terms of the induced reduction in the frequency of explosion, by including also uncertainty. This approach has been applied to 14 plants in Greece with very satisfactory results.

  7. Linguistic methodology for the analysis of aviation accidents

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Goguen, J. A.; Linde, C.

    1983-01-01

    A linguistic method for the analysis of small group discourse, was developed and the use of this method on transcripts of commercial air transpot accidents is demonstrated. The method identifies the discourse types that occur and determine their linguistic structure; it identifies significant linguistic variables based upon these structures or other linguistic concepts such as speech act and topic; it tests hypotheses that support significance and reliability of these variables; and it indicates the implications of the validated hypotheses. These implications fall into three categories: (1) to train crews to use more nearly optimal communication patterns; (2) to use linguistic variables as indices for aspects of crew performance such as attention; and (3) to provide guidelines for the design of aviation procedures and equipment, especially those that involve speech.

  8. Radionuclide Analysis on Bamboos following the Fukushima Nuclear Accident

    PubMed Central

    Higaki, Takumi; Higaki, Shogo; Hirota, Masahiro; Akita, Kae; Hasezawa, Seiichiro

    2012-01-01

    In response to contamination from the recent Fukushima nuclear accident, we conducted radionuclide analysis on bamboos sampled from six sites within a 25 to 980 km radius of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant. Maximum activity concentrations of radiocesium 134Cs and 137Cs in samples from Fukushima city, 65 km away from the Fukushima Daiichi plant, were in excess of 71 and 79 kBq/kg, dry weight (DW), respectively. In Kashiwa city, 195 km away from the Fukushima Daiichi, the sample concentrations were in excess of 3.4 and 4.3 kBq/kg DW, respectively. In Toyohashi city, 440 km away from the Fukushima Daiichi, the concentrations were below the measurable limits of up to 4.5 Bq/kg DW. In the radiocesium contaminated samples, the radiocesium activity was higher in mature and fallen leaves than in young leaves, branches and culms. PMID:22496858

  9. Aircraft Accident Prevention: Loss-of-Control Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kwatny, Harry G.; Dongmo, Jean-Etienne T.; Chang, Bor-Chin; Bajpai, Guarav; Yasar, Murat; Belcastro, Christine M.

    2009-01-01

    The majority of fatal aircraft accidents are associated with loss-of-control . Yet the notion of loss-of-control is not well-defined in terms suitable for rigorous control systems analysis. Loss-of-control is generally associated with flight outside of the normal flight envelope, with nonlinear influences, and with an inability of the pilot to control the aircraft. The two primary sources of nonlinearity are the intrinsic nonlinear dynamics of the aircraft and the state and control constraints within which the aircraft must operate. In this paper we examine how these nonlinearities affect the ability to control the aircraft and how they may contribute to loss-of-control. Examples are provided using NASA s Generic Transport Model.

  10. Preliminary analysis of loss-of-coolant accident in Fukushima nuclear accident

    SciTech Connect

    Su'ud, Zaki; Anshari, Rio

    2012-06-06

    Loss-of-Coolant Accident (LOCA) in Boiling Water Reactor (BWR) especially on Fukushima Nuclear Accident will be discussed in this paper. The Tohoku earthquake triggered the shutdown of nuclear power reactors at Fukushima Nuclear Power station. Though shutdown process has been completely performed, cooling process, at much smaller level than in normal operation, is needed to remove decay heat from the reactor core until the reactor reach cold-shutdown condition. If LOCA happen at this condition, it will cause the increase of reactor fuel and other core temperatures and can lead to reactor core meltdown and exposure of radioactive material to the environment such as in the Fukushima Dai Ichi nuclear accident case. In this study numerical simulation has been performed to calculate pressure composition, water level and temperature distribution on reactor during this accident. There are two coolant regulating system that operational on reactor unit 1 at this accident, Isolation Condensers (IC) system and Safety Relief Valves (SRV) system. Average mass flow of steam to the IC system in this event is 10 kg/s and could keep reactor core from uncovered about 3,2 hours and fully uncovered in 4,7 hours later. There are two coolant regulating system at operational on reactor unit 2, Reactor Core Isolation Condenser (RCIC) System and Safety Relief Valves (SRV). Average mass flow of coolant that correspond this event is 20 kg/s and could keep reactor core from uncovered about 73 hours and fully uncovered in 75 hours later. There are three coolant regulating system at operational on reactor unit 3, Reactor Core Isolation Condenser (RCIC) system, High Pressure Coolant Injection (HPCI) system and Safety Relief Valves (SRV). Average mass flow of water that correspond this event is 15 kg/s and could keep reactor core from uncovered about 37 hours and fully uncovered in 40 hours later.

  11. Preliminary analysis of loss-of-coolant accident in Fukushima nuclear accident

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Su'ud, Zaki; Anshari, Rio

    2012-06-01

    Loss-of-Coolant Accident (LOCA) in Boiling Water Reactor (BWR) especially on Fukushima Nuclear Accident will be discussed in this paper. The Tohoku earthquake triggered the shutdown of nuclear power reactors at Fukushima Nuclear Power station. Though shutdown process has been completely performed, cooling process, at much smaller level than in normal operation, is needed to remove decay heat from the reactor core until the reactor reach cold-shutdown condition. If LOCA happen at this condition, it will cause the increase of reactor fuel and other core temperatures and can lead to reactor core meltdown and exposure of radioactive material to the environment such as in the Fukushima Dai Ichi nuclear accident case. In this study numerical simulation has been performed to calculate pressure composition, water level and temperature distribution on reactor during this accident. There are two coolant regulating system that operational on reactor unit 1 at this accident, Isolation Condensers (IC) system and Safety Relief Valves (SRV) system. Average mass flow of steam to the IC system in this event is 10 kg/s and could keep reactor core from uncovered about 3,2 hours and fully uncovered in 4,7 hours later. There are two coolant regulating system at operational on reactor unit 2, Reactor Core Isolation Condenser (RCIC) System and Safety Relief Valves (SRV). Average mass flow of coolant that correspond this event is 20 kg/s and could keep reactor core from uncovered about 73 hours and fully uncovered in 75 hours later. There are three coolant regulating system at operational on reactor unit 3, Reactor Core Isolation Condenser (RCIC) system, High Pressure Coolant Injection (HPCI) system and Safety Relief Valves (SRV). Average mass flow of water that correspond this event is 15 kg/s and could keep reactor core from uncovered about 37 hours and fully uncovered in 40 hours later.

  12. Advanced accident sequence precursor analysis level 1 models

    SciTech Connect

    Sattison, M.B.; Thatcher, T.A.; Knudsen, J.K.; Schroeder, J.A.; Siu, N.O.

    1996-03-01

    INEL has been involved in the development of plant-specific Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) models for the past two years. These models were developed for use with the SAPHIRE suite of PRA computer codes. They contained event tree/linked fault tree Level 1 risk models for the following initiating events: general transient, loss-of-offsite-power, steam generator tube rupture, small loss-of-coolant-accident, and anticipated transient without scram. Early in 1995 the ASP models were revised based on review comments from the NRC and an independent peer review. These models were released as Revision 1. The Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research has sponsored several projects at the INEL this fiscal year to further enhance the capabilities of the ASP models. Revision 2 models incorporates more detailed plant information into the models concerning plant response to station blackout conditions, information on battery life, and other unique features gleaned from an Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation quick review of the Individual Plant Examination submittals. These models are currently being delivered to the NRC as they are completed. A related project is a feasibility study and model development of low power/shutdown (LP/SD) and external event extensions to the ASP models. This project will establish criteria for selection of LP/SD and external initiator operational events for analysis within the ASP program. Prototype models for each pertinent initiating event (loss of shutdown cooling, loss of inventory control, fire, flood, seismic, etc.) will be developed. A third project concerns development of enhancements to SAPHIRE. In relation to the ASP program, a new SAPHIRE module, GEM, was developed as a specific user interface for performing ASP evaluations. This module greatly simplifies the analysis process for determining the conditional core damage probability for a given combination of initiating events and equipment failures or degradations.

  13. An analysis of accident data for franchised public buses in Hong Kong.

    PubMed

    Evans, W A; Courtney, A J

    1985-10-01

    This paper analyses data on accidents involving franchised public buses operating in Hong Kong. The data were obtained from the Royal Hong Kong Police, the Hong Kong Government Transport Department, the two major franchised bus operators and international sources. The analysis includes an international comparison of accidents with emphasis on the situation in Hong Kong compared to urban areas in the United Kingdom. An attempt has been made to identify the characteristics of bus accidents; accident incidence has been related to time of day, day of the week, time of year, weather conditions, driver's age and experience, hours on duty and policy-reported cause. The results indicate that Hong Kong has a high accident rate compared to Japan, the U.K. and the U.S.A., with particularly high pedestrian involvement rates. Bus accidents peak at around 9:00 AM and 4:00 PM but the accident rate is high throughout the day. Monday and Saturday appear to have a higher than average accident rate. The variability of accident rate throughout the year does not seem to be significant and the accident rate does not appear to be influenced by weather conditions. Older, more experienced drivers generally have a safer driving record than their younger, less experienced colleagues. Accident occurrence is related to the time the driver has been on duty. The paper questions the reliability of police-reported accident causation data and suggests improvements in the design of the accident report form and in the training of police investigators. The relevance of the Hong Kong study for accident research in general is also discussed.

  14. Accident involvement among learner drivers--an analysis of the consequences of supervised practice.

    PubMed

    Gregersen, Nils Petter; Nyberg, Anders; Berg, Hans-Yngve

    2003-09-01

    It is a well-known fact that experience is important for safe driving. Previously, this presented a problem since experience was mostly gained during the most dangerous period of driving-the first years with a licence. In many countries, this "experience paradox" has been addressed by providing increased opportunities to gain experience through supervised practice. One question, however, which still needs to be answered is what has been lost and what has been gained through supervised practice. Does this method lead to fewer accidents after licensing and/or has the number of accidents in driving practice increased? There were three aims in the study. The first was to calculate the size of the accident problem in terms of the number of accidents, health risk and accident risk during practising. The second aim was to evaluate the solution of the "experience paradox" that supervised practice suggests by calculating the costs in terms of accidents during driving practice and the benefits in terms of reduced accident involvement after obtaining a licence. The third aim was to analyse conflict types that occur during driving practice. National register data on licence holders and police-reported injury accidents and self-reported exposure were used. The results show that during the period 1994-2000, 444 driving practice injury accidents were registered, compared to 13657 accidents during the first 2 years with a licence. The health risk during the period after licensing was 33 times higher and the accident risk 10 times higher than the corresponding risk during practice. The cost-benefit analysis showed that the benefits in terms of accident reduction after licensing were 30 times higher than the costs in terms of driving practice accidents. It is recommended that measures to reduce such accidents should focus on better education of the lay instructor, but not on introducing measures to reduce the amount of lay-instructed practice. PMID:12850073

  15. An analysis of accident data for franchised public buses in Hong Kong.

    PubMed

    Evans, W A; Courtney, A J

    1985-10-01

    This paper analyses data on accidents involving franchised public buses operating in Hong Kong. The data were obtained from the Royal Hong Kong Police, the Hong Kong Government Transport Department, the two major franchised bus operators and international sources. The analysis includes an international comparison of accidents with emphasis on the situation in Hong Kong compared to urban areas in the United Kingdom. An attempt has been made to identify the characteristics of bus accidents; accident incidence has been related to time of day, day of the week, time of year, weather conditions, driver's age and experience, hours on duty and policy-reported cause. The results indicate that Hong Kong has a high accident rate compared to Japan, the U.K. and the U.S.A., with particularly high pedestrian involvement rates. Bus accidents peak at around 9:00 AM and 4:00 PM but the accident rate is high throughout the day. Monday and Saturday appear to have a higher than average accident rate. The variability of accident rate throughout the year does not seem to be significant and the accident rate does not appear to be influenced by weather conditions. Older, more experienced drivers generally have a safer driving record than their younger, less experienced colleagues. Accident occurrence is related to the time the driver has been on duty. The paper questions the reliability of police-reported accident causation data and suggests improvements in the design of the accident report form and in the training of police investigators. The relevance of the Hong Kong study for accident research in general is also discussed. PMID:4096796

  16. MACCS usage at Rocky Flats Plant for consequence analysis of postulated accidents

    SciTech Connect

    Foppe, T.L.; Peterson, V.L.

    1993-10-01

    The MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System (MACCS) has been applied to the radiological consequence assessment of potential accidents from a non-reactor nuclear facility. MACCS has been used in a variety of applications to evaluate radiological dose and health effects to the public from postulated plutonium releases and from postulated criticalities. These applications were conducted to support deterministic and probabilistic accident analyses for safety analyses for safety analysis reports, radiological sabotage studies, and other regulatory requests.

  17. Assessing the robustness of quantitative fatty acid signature analysis to assumption violations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bromaghin, Jeffrey; Budge, Suzanne M.; Thiemann, Gregory W.; Rode, Karyn D.

    2016-01-01

    In most QFASA applications, investigators will generally have some knowledge of the prey available to predators and be able to assess the completeness of prey signature data and sample additional prey as necessary. Conversely, because calibration coefficients are derived from feeding trials with captive animals and their values may be sensitive to consumer physiology and nutritional status, their applicability to free-ranging animals is difficult to establish. We therefore recommend that investigators first make any improvements to the prey signature data that seem warranted and then base estimation on the Aitchison distance measure, as it appears to minimize risk from violations of the assumption that is most difficult to verify.

  18. 300-Area accident analysis for Emergency Planning Zones

    SciTech Connect

    Pillinger, W.L.

    1983-06-27

    The Department of Energy has requested SRL assistance in developing offsite Emergency Planning Zones (EPZs) for the Savannah River Plant, based on projected dose consequences of atmospheric releases of radioactivity from potential credible accidents in the SRP operating areas. This memorandum presents the assessment of the offsite doses via the plume exposure pathway from the 300-Area potential accidents. 8 refs., 3 tabs.

  19. GPHS-RTG launch accident analysis for Galileo and Ulysses

    SciTech Connect

    Bradshaw, C.T. )

    1991-01-01

    This paper presents the safety program conducted to determine the response of the General Purpose Heat Source (GPHS) Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generator (RTG) to potential launch accidents of the Space Shuttle for the Galileo and Ulysses missions. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) provided definition of the Shuttle potential accidents and characterized the environments. The Launch Accident Scenario Evaluation Program (LASEP) was developed by GE to analyze the RTG response to these accidents. RTG detailed response to Solid Rocket Booster (SRB) fragment impacts, as well as to other types of impact, was obtained from an extensive series of hydrocode analyses. A comprehensive test program was conducted also to determine RTG response to the accident environments. The hydrocode response analyses coupled with the test data base provided the broad range response capability which was implemented in LASEP.

  20. Swimming pool immersion accidents: an analysis from the Brisbane Drowning Study

    PubMed Central

    Pearn, John H; Nixon, James

    1997-01-01

    An analysis of a consecutive series of 66 swimming pool immersion accidents is presented; 74% of these occurred in in-ground swimming pools. The estimated accident rate per pool is fives times greater for in-ground pools compared with above-ground pools, where pools are inadequately fenced. Backyard swimming pools account for 74% of pool accidents. Motel and caravan park pools account for 9% of childhood immersion accidents, but the survival rate (17%) is very low. Fifty per cent of pool accidents occur in the family's own backyard pool, and 13.6% in a neighbour's pool; in the latter the survival rate is still low at only 33%. In only one of the 66 cases was there an adequate safety fence; in 76% of cases there was no fence or barrier whatsoever. Tables of swimming pool accidents by age, season, site, and outcome are presented. PMID:9493630

  1. Progress in accident analysis of the HYLIFE-II inertial fusion energy power plant design

    SciTech Connect

    Reyes, S; Latkowski, J F; Gomez del Rio, J; Sanz, J

    2000-10-11

    The present work continues our effort to perform an integrated safety analysis for the HYLIFE-II inertial fusion energy (IFE) power plant design. Recently we developed a base case for a severe accident scenario in order to calculate accident doses for HYLIFE-II. It consisted of a total loss of coolant accident (LOCA) in which all the liquid flibe (Li{sub 2}BeF{sub 4}) was lost at the beginning of the accident. Results showed that the off-site dose was below the limit given by the DOE Fusion Safety Standards for public protection in case of accident, and that his dose was dominated by the tritium released during the accident.

  2. Analysis of Convair 990 rejected-takeoff accident with emphasis on decision making, training and procedures

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Batthauer, Byron E.

    1987-01-01

    This paper analyzes a NASA Convair 990 (CV-990) accident with emphasis on rejected-takeoff (RTO) decision making, training, procedures, and accident statistics. The NASA Aircraft Accident Investigation Board was somewhat perplexed that an aircraft could be destroyed as a result of blown tires during the takeoff roll. To provide a better understanding of tire failure RTO's, The Board obtained accident reports, Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) studies, and other pertinent information related to the elements of this accident. This material enhanced the analysis process and convinced the Accident Board that high-speed RTO's in transport aircraft should be given more emphasis during pilot training. Pilots should be made aware of various RTO situations and statistics with emphasis on failed-tire RTO's. This background information could enhance the split-second decision-making process that is required prior to initiating an RTO.

  3. Analysis of 139 spinal cord injuries due to accidents in water sports.

    PubMed

    Steinbrück, K; Paeslack, V

    1980-04-01

    Between 1967 and 1978, a total of 2587 patients received primary treatment in the Spinal Cord Injury Centre at the University of Heidelberg. In 212 cases the paralysis was caused by sports or diving accidents. Injuries resulting from accidents in water sports totalled 139, 131(61.7 per cent) of which could be classified as actual diving accidents. These 131 cases consisted of 129 tetraplegias and only 2 paraplegias. In 5 cases, the tetraplegia resulted from high diving and in 3 cases from scuba-diving. The subjects of the analysis are causes of accidents, segmental diagnosis of neurological deficiency symptoms and prognosis.

  4. Error analysis of the converted wave deduced by equivalent velocity assumption

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Wei; Wang, Yun; Yin, Junjie; Gao, Xing

    2012-05-01

    Based on the assumption of the equivalent velocity and offset, the converted wave travel-time equation, which has a double square root due to the asymmetric ray-path of the down-going P-wave and the up-coming S-wave, can be transformed into a single square root equation if the common scatterpoint (CSP) gathers are binned. This method simplifies the equation and decreases the errors of converted wave migration transferred by P-wave velocity error, compared to the equivalent offset method (EOM) migration proposed by Bancroft, Geiger and Foltinek . In this paper, the errors caused by the introduction of equivalent velocity for the PS-wave are analysed in detail. The discrete errors and effects introduced by discretization of the equivalent offset are presented, and finally the conditions for applying CSP gathers for PS-wave processing under the control of reasonable error limits are derived.

  5. Consequence analysis of a hypothetical contained criticality accident in the Hanford Critical Mass Laboratory

    SciTech Connect

    Gore, B.F.; Strenge, D.L.; Mishima, J.

    1984-12-01

    The original hazards summary report (i.e., SAR) for the CML addressed the consequences of a hypothetical accidential critical excursion occurring with the experimental assembly room open. That report indicated that the public would receive insignificant radiation exposure regardless of the type of atmospheric condition, while plant personnel could possibly receive exposures greater than the annual exposure limits for radiation workers, when a strong inversion existed. This analysis investigates the consequencs of a hypothetical accident criticality occurring with the experimental assembly room sealed. Due to the containment capabilities designed and built into the critical assembly room, the consequences are greatly reduced below those presented in HW-66266. Despite the incorporation of many extremely conservative assumptions to simplify the analysis, the radiation doses predicted for personnel 100 meters or more distant from the CML are found to be smaller than the annual radiation dose limit for members of the public in uncontrolled areas during routine, nonaccident operations. Therefore, the results of this analysis demonstrate that the occurrence of a hypothetical critical excursion within the sealed experimental assembly room at the Hanford Critical Mass Laboratory presents only a small, acceptable risk to personnel and facilities in the area and no additional safety systems or controls are needed for the continued safe operation of the CML. 11 references, 4 tables. (ACR)

  6. Analysis of construction accidents in Turkey and responsible parties.

    PubMed

    Gürcanli, G Emre; Müngen, Uğur

    2013-01-01

    Construction is one of the world's biggest industry that includes jobs as diverse as building, civil engineering, demolition, renovation, repair and maintenance. Construction workers are exposed to a wide variety of hazards. This study analyzes 1,117 expert witness reports which were submitted to criminal and labour courts. These reports are from all regions of the country and cover the period 1972-2008. Accidents were classified by the consequence of the incident, time and main causes of the accident, construction type, occupation of the victim, activity at time of the accident and party responsible for the accident. Falls (54.1%), struck by thrown/falling object (12.9%), structural collapses (9.9%) and electrocutions (7.5%) rank first four places. The accidents were most likely between the hours 15:00 and 17:00 (22.6%), 10:00-12:00 (18.7%) and just after the lunchtime (9.9%). Additionally, the most common accidents were further divided into sub-types. Expert-witness assessments were used to identify the parties at fault and what acts of negligence typically lead to accidents. Nearly two thirds of the faulty and negligent acts are carried out by the employers and employees are responsible for almost one third of all cases. PMID:24077446

  7. Analysis of Construction Accidents in Turkey and Responsible Parties

    PubMed Central

    GÜRCANLI, G. Emre; MÜNGEN, Uğur

    2013-01-01

    Construction is one of the world’s biggest industry that includes jobs as diverse as building, civil engineering, demolition, renovation, repair and maintenance. Construction workers are exposed to a wide variety of hazards. This study analyzes 1,117 expert witness reports which were submitted to criminal and labour courts. These reports are from all regions of the country and cover the period 1972–2008. Accidents were classified by the consequence of the incident, time and main causes of the accident, construction type, occupation of the victim, activity at time of the accident and party responsible for the accident. Falls (54.1%), struck by thrown/falling object (12.9%), structural collapses (9.9%) and electrocutions (7.5%) rank first four places. The accidents were most likely between the hours 15:00 and 17:00 (22.6%), 10:00–12:00 (18.7%) and just after the lunchtime (9.9%). Additionally, the most common accidents were further divided into sub-types. Expert-witness assessments were used to identify the parties at fault and what acts of negligence typically lead to accidents. Nearly two thirds of the faulty and negligent acts are carried out by the employers and employees are responsible for almost one third of all cases. PMID:24077446

  8. Sodium fast reactor gaps analysis of computer codes and models for accident analysis and reactor safety.

    SciTech Connect

    Carbajo, Juan; Jeong, Hae-Yong; Wigeland, Roald; Corradini, Michael; Schmidt, Rodney Cannon; Thomas, Justin; Wei, Tom; Sofu, Tanju; Ludewig, Hans; Tobita, Yoshiharu; Ohshima, Hiroyuki; Serre, Frederic

    2011-06-01

    This report summarizes the results of an expert-opinion elicitation activity designed to qualitatively assess the status and capabilities of currently available computer codes and models for accident analysis and reactor safety calculations of advanced sodium fast reactors, and identify important gaps. The twelve-member panel consisted of representatives from five U.S. National Laboratories (SNL, ANL, INL, ORNL, and BNL), the University of Wisconsin, the KAERI, the JAEA, and the CEA. The major portion of this elicitation activity occurred during a two-day meeting held on Aug. 10-11, 2010 at Argonne National Laboratory. There were two primary objectives of this work: (1) Identify computer codes currently available for SFR accident analysis and reactor safety calculations; and (2) Assess the status and capability of current US computer codes to adequately model the required accident scenarios and associated phenomena, and identify important gaps. During the review, panel members identified over 60 computer codes that are currently available in the international community to perform different aspects of SFR safety analysis for various event scenarios and accident categories. A brief description of each of these codes together with references (when available) is provided. An adaptation of the Predictive Capability Maturity Model (PCMM) for computational modeling and simulation is described for use in this work. The panel's assessment of the available US codes is presented in the form of nine tables, organized into groups of three for each of three risk categories considered: anticipated operational occurrences (AOOs), design basis accidents (DBA), and beyond design basis accidents (BDBA). A set of summary conclusions are drawn from the results obtained. At the highest level, the panel judged that current US code capabilities are adequate for licensing given reasonable margins, but expressed concern that US code development activities had stagnated and that the

  9. Comparison of 2D Finite Element Modeling Assumptions with Results From 3D Analysis for Composite Skin-Stiffener Debonding

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Krueger, Ronald; Paris, Isbelle L.; OBrien, T. Kevin; Minguet, Pierre J.

    2004-01-01

    The influence of two-dimensional finite element modeling assumptions on the debonding prediction for skin-stiffener specimens was investigated. Geometrically nonlinear finite element analyses using two-dimensional plane-stress and plane-strain elements as well as three different generalized plane strain type approaches were performed. The computed skin and flange strains, transverse tensile stresses and energy release rates were compared to results obtained from three-dimensional simulations. The study showed that for strains and energy release rate computations the generalized plane strain assumptions yielded results closest to the full three-dimensional analysis. For computed transverse tensile stresses the plane stress assumption gave the best agreement. Based on this study it is recommended that results from plane stress and plane strain models be used as upper and lower bounds. The results from generalized plane strain models fall between the results obtained from plane stress and plane strain models. Two-dimensional models may also be used to qualitatively evaluate the stress distribution in a ply and the variation of energy release rates and mixed mode ratios with delamination length. For more accurate predictions, however, a three-dimensional analysis is required.

  10. Accidents at Work and Costs Analysis: A Field Study in a Large Italian Company

    PubMed Central

    BATTAGLIA, Massimo; FREY, Marco; PASSETTI, Emilio

    2014-01-01

    Accidents at work are still a heavy burden in social and economic terms, and action to improve health and safety standards at work offers great potential gains not only to employers, but also to individuals and society as a whole. However, companies often are not interested to measure the costs of accidents even if cost information may facilitate preventive occupational health and safety management initiatives. The field study, carried out in a large Italian company, illustrates technical and organisational aspects associated with the implementation of an accident costs analysis tool. The results indicate that the implementation (and the use) of the tool requires a considerable commitment by the company, that accident costs analysis should serve to reinforce the importance of health and safety prevention and that the economic dimension of accidents is substantial. The study also suggests practical ways to facilitate the implementation and the moral acceptance of the accounting technology. PMID:24869894

  11. Work-related accidents among the Iranian population: a time series analysis, 2000–2011

    PubMed Central

    Karimlou, Masoud; Imani, Mehdi; Hosseini, Agha-Fatemeh; Dehnad, Afsaneh; Vahabi, Nasim; Bakhtiyari, Mahmood

    2015-01-01

    Background Work-related accidents result in human suffering and economic losses and are considered as a major health problem worldwide, especially in the economically developing world. Objectives To introduce seasonal autoregressive moving average (ARIMA) models for time series analysis of work-related accident data for workers insured by the Iranian Social Security Organization (ISSO) between 2000 and 2011. Methods In this retrospective study, all insured people experiencing at least one work-related accident during a 10-year period were included in the analyses. We used Box–Jenkins modeling to develop a time series model of the total number of accidents. Results There was an average of 1476 accidents per month (1476·05±458·77, mean±SD). The final ARIMA (p,d,q) (P,D,Q)s model for fitting to data was: ARIMA(1,1,1)×(0,1,1)12 consisting of the first ordering of the autoregressive, moving average and seasonal moving average parameters with 20·942 mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). Conclusions The final model showed that time series analysis of ARIMA models was useful for forecasting the number of work-related accidents in Iran. In addition, the forecasted number of work-related accidents for 2011 explained the stability of occurrence of these accidents in recent years, indicating a need for preventive occupational health and safety policies such as safety inspection. PMID:26119774

  12. Risk analysis of emergent water pollution accidents based on a Bayesian Network.

    PubMed

    Tang, Caihong; Yi, Yujun; Yang, Zhifeng; Sun, Jie

    2016-01-01

    To guarantee the security of water quality in water transfer channels, especially in open channels, analysis of potential emergent pollution sources in the water transfer process is critical. It is also indispensable for forewarnings and protection from emergent pollution accidents. Bridges above open channels with large amounts of truck traffic are the main locations where emergent accidents could occur. A Bayesian Network model, which consists of six root nodes and three middle layer nodes, was developed in this paper, and was employed to identify the possibility of potential pollution risk. Dianbei Bridge is reviewed as a typical bridge on an open channel of the Middle Route of the South to North Water Transfer Project where emergent traffic accidents could occur. Risk of water pollutions caused by leakage of pollutants into water is focused in this study. The risk for potential traffic accidents at the Dianbei Bridge implies a risk for water pollution in the canal. Based on survey data, statistical analysis, and domain specialist knowledge, a Bayesian Network model was established. The human factor of emergent accidents has been considered in this model. Additionally, this model has been employed to describe the probability of accidents and the risk level. The sensitive reasons for pollution accidents have been deduced. The case has also been simulated that sensitive factors are in a state of most likely to lead to accidents. PMID:26433361

  13. Risk analysis of emergent water pollution accidents based on a Bayesian Network.

    PubMed

    Tang, Caihong; Yi, Yujun; Yang, Zhifeng; Sun, Jie

    2016-01-01

    To guarantee the security of water quality in water transfer channels, especially in open channels, analysis of potential emergent pollution sources in the water transfer process is critical. It is also indispensable for forewarnings and protection from emergent pollution accidents. Bridges above open channels with large amounts of truck traffic are the main locations where emergent accidents could occur. A Bayesian Network model, which consists of six root nodes and three middle layer nodes, was developed in this paper, and was employed to identify the possibility of potential pollution risk. Dianbei Bridge is reviewed as a typical bridge on an open channel of the Middle Route of the South to North Water Transfer Project where emergent traffic accidents could occur. Risk of water pollutions caused by leakage of pollutants into water is focused in this study. The risk for potential traffic accidents at the Dianbei Bridge implies a risk for water pollution in the canal. Based on survey data, statistical analysis, and domain specialist knowledge, a Bayesian Network model was established. The human factor of emergent accidents has been considered in this model. Additionally, this model has been employed to describe the probability of accidents and the risk level. The sensitive reasons for pollution accidents have been deduced. The case has also been simulated that sensitive factors are in a state of most likely to lead to accidents.

  14. Analysis of containment performance and radiological consequences under severe accident conditions for the Advanced Neutron Source Reactor at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory

    SciTech Connect

    Kim, S.H.; Taleyarkhan, R.P.

    1994-01-01

    A severe accident study was conducted to evaluate conservatively scoped source terms and radiological consequences to support the Advanced Neutron Source (ANS) Conceptual Safety Analysis Report (CSAR). Three different types of severe accident scenarios were postulated with a view of evaluating conservatively scoped source terms. The first scenario evaluates maximum possible steaming loads and associated radionuclide transport, whereas the next scenario is geared towards evaluating conservative containment loads from releases of radionuclide vapors and aerosols with associated generation of combustible gases. The third scenario follows the prescriptions given by the 10 CFR 100 guidelines. It was included in the CSAR for demonstrating site-suitability characteristics of the ANS. Various containment configurations are considered for the study of thermal-hydraulic and radiological behaviors of the ANS containment. Severe accident mitigative design features such as the use of rupture disks were accounted for. This report describes the postulated severe accident scenarios, methodology for analysis, modeling assumptions, modeling of several severe accident phenomena, and evaluation of the resulting source term and radiological consequences.

  15. Safety analysis results for cryostat ingress accidents in ITER

    SciTech Connect

    Merrill, B.J.; Cadwallader, L.C.; Petti, D.A.

    1996-12-31

    Accidents involving the ingress of air or water into the cryostat of the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) tokamak design have been analyzed with a modified version of the MELCOR code for the ITER Non-site Specific Safety Report (NSSR-1). The air ingress accident is the result of a postulated breach of the cryostat boundary into an adjoining room. MELCOR results for this accident demonstrate that the condensed air mass and increased heat loads are not a magnet safety concern, but that the partial vacuum in the adjoining room must be accommodated in the building design. The water ingress accident is the result of a postulated magnet arc that results in melting of a Primary Heat Transport System (PHTS) coolant pipe, discharging PHTS water and PHTS water activated corrosion products and HTO into the cryostat. MELCOR results for this accident demonstrate that the condensed water mass and increased heat loads are not a magnet safety concern, that the cryostat pressure remains below design limits, and that the corrosion product and HTO releases are well within the ITER release limits.

  16. WASTE-ACC: A computer model for analysis of waste management accidents

    SciTech Connect

    Nabelssi, B.K.; Folga, S.; Kohout, E.J.; Mueller, C.J.; Roglans-Ribas, J.

    1996-12-01

    In support of the U.S. Department of Energy`s (DOE`s) Waste Management Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement, Argonne National Laboratory has developed WASTE-ACC, a computational framework and integrated PC-based database system, to assess atmospheric releases from facility accidents. WASTE-ACC facilitates the many calculations for the accident analyses necessitated by the numerous combinations of waste types, waste management process technologies, facility locations, and site consolidation strategies in the waste management alternatives across the DOE complex. WASTE-ACC is a comprehensive tool that can effectively test future DOE waste management alternatives and assumptions. The computational framework can access several relational databases to calculate atmospheric releases. The databases contain throughput volumes, waste profiles, treatment process parameters, and accident data such as frequencies of initiators, conditional probabilities of subsequent events, and source term release parameters of the various waste forms under accident stresses. This report describes the computational framework and supporting databases used to conduct accident analyses and to develop source terms to assess potential health impacts that may affect on-site workers and off-site members of the public under various DOE waste management alternatives.

  17. School sports accidents: analysis of causes, modes, and frequencies.

    PubMed

    Kelm, J; Ahlhelm, F; Pape, D; Pitsch, W; Engel, C

    2001-01-01

    About 5% of all school children are seriously injured during physical education every year. Because of its influence on children's attitude toward sports and the economic aspects, an evaluation of causes and medical consequences is necessary. In this study, 213 school sports accidents were investigated. Besides diagnosis, the localization of injuries, as well as the duration of the sick leave were documented. Average age of injured students was 13 years. Most of the injured students blamed themselves for the accident. The most common injuries were sprains, contusions, and fractures. Main reasons for the accidents were faults in basic motion training. Playing soccer and basketball were the most frequent reasons for injuries. The upper extremity was more frequently involved than the lower extremity. Sports physicians and teachers should work out a program outlining the individual needs and capabilities of the injured students to reintegrate them into physical education.

  18. ACCIDENT ANALYSES & CONTROL OPTIONS IN SUPPORT OF THE SLUDGE WATER SYSTEM SAFETY ANALYSIS

    SciTech Connect

    WILLIAMS, J.C.

    2003-11-15

    This report documents the accident analyses and nuclear safety control options for use in Revision 7 of HNF-SD-WM-SAR-062, ''K Basins Safety Analysis Report'' and Revision 4 of HNF-SD-SNF-TSR-001, ''Technical Safety Requirements - 100 KE and 100 KW Fuel Storage Basins''. These documents will define the authorization basis for Sludge Water System (SWS) operations. This report follows the guidance of DOE-STD-3009-94, ''Preparation Guide for US. Department of Energy Nonreactor Nuclear Facility Safety Analysis Reports'', for calculating onsite and offsite consequences. The accident analysis summary is shown in Table ES-1 below. While this document describes and discusses potential control options to either mitigate or prevent the accidents discussed herein, it should be made clear that the final control selection for any accident is determined and presented in HNF-SD-WM-SAR-062.

  19. Structural Analysis for the American Airlines Flight 587 Accident Investigation: Global Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Young, Richard D.; Lovejoy, Andrew E.; Hilburger, Mark W.; Moore, David F.

    2005-01-01

    NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) supported the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) in the American Airlines Flight 587 accident investigation due to LaRC's expertise in high-fidelity structural analysis and testing of composite structures and materials. A Global Analysis Team from LaRC reviewed the manufacturer s design and certification procedures, developed finite element models and conducted structural analyses, and participated jointly with the NTSB and Airbus in subcomponent tests conducted at Airbus in Hamburg, Germany. The Global Analysis Team identified no significant or obvious deficiencies in the Airbus certification and design methods. Analysis results from the LaRC team indicated that the most-likely failure scenario was failure initiation at the right rear main attachment fitting (lug), followed by an unstable progression of failure of all fin-to-fuselage attachments and separation of the VTP from the aircraft. Additionally, analysis results indicated that failure initiates at the final observed maximum fin loading condition in the accident, when the VTP was subjected to loads that were at minimum 1.92 times the design limit load condition for certification. For certification, the VTP is only required to support loads of 1.5 times design limit load without catastrophic failure. The maximum loading during the accident was shown to significantly exceed the certification requirement. Thus, the structure appeared to perform in a manner consistent with its design and certification, and failure is attributed to VTP loads greater than expected.

  20. The Effects of Violations of Data Set Assumptions When Using the Oneway, Fixed-Effects Analysis of Variance and the One Concomitant Analysis of Covariance.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnson, Colleen Cook; Rakow, Ernest A.

    1994-01-01

    This research is an empirical study, through Monte Carlo simulation, of the effects of violations of the assumptions for the oneway fixed-effects analysis of variance (ANOVA) and analysis of covariance (ANCOVA). Research reaffirms findings of previous studies that suggest that ANOVA and ANCOVA be avoided when group sizes are not equal. (SLD)

  1. Analysis of accident sequences and source terms at treatment and storage facilities for waste generated by US Department of Energy waste management operations

    SciTech Connect

    Mueller, C.; Nabelssi, B.; Roglans-Ribas, J.; Folga, S.; Policastro, A.; Freeman, W.; Jackson, R.; Mishima, J.; Turner, S.

    1996-12-01

    This report documents the methodology, computational framework, and results of facility accident analyses performed for the US Department of Energy (DOE) Waste Management Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (WM PEIS). The accident sequences potentially important to human health risk are specified, their frequencies assessed, and the resultant radiological and chemical source terms evaluated. A personal-computer-based computational framework and database have been developed that provide these results as input to the WM PEIS for the calculation of human health risk impacts. The WM PEIS addresses management of five waste streams in the DOE complex: low-level waste (LLW), hazardous waste (HW), high-level waste (HLW), low-level mixed waste (LLMW), and transuranic waste (TRUW). Currently projected waste generation rates, storage inventories, and treatment process throughputs have been calculated for each of the waste streams. This report summarizes the accident analyses and aggregates the key results for each of the waste streams. Source terms are estimated, and results are presented for each of the major DOE sites and facilities by WM PEIS alternative for each waste stream. Key assumptions in the development of the source terms are identified. The appendices identify the potential atmospheric release of each toxic chemical or radionuclide for each accident scenario studied. They also discuss specific accident analysis data and guidance used or consulted in this report.

  2. RADIS - a regional nuclear accident consequence analysis model for Hong Kong

    SciTech Connect

    Yeung, Mankit Ray; Ching, E.M.K. )

    1993-02-01

    An atmospheric dispersion and consequence model called RADIS has been developed by the University of Hong Kong for nuclear accident consequence analysis. The model uses a two-dimensional plume trajectory derived from wind data for Hong Kong. Dose, health effects, and demographic models are also developed and implemented in RADIS so that accident consequences in 15 major population centers of Greater Hong Kong can be determined individually. In addition, benchmark testing results are give, and comparisons with the analytical solution and CRAC2 results are consistent and satisfactory. Sample calculational results for severe accident consequences are also presented to demonstrate the applicability of RADIS for dry and wet weather conditions.

  3. Using "Excel" for White's Test--An Important Technique for Evaluating the Equality of Variance Assumption and Model Specification in a Regression Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Berenson, Mark L.

    2013-01-01

    There is consensus in the statistical literature that severe departures from its assumptions invalidate the use of regression modeling for purposes of inference. The assumptions of regression modeling are usually evaluated subjectively through visual, graphic displays in a residual analysis but such an approach, taken alone, may be insufficient…

  4. Advanced accident sequence precursor analysis level 2 models

    SciTech Connect

    Galyean, W.J.; Brownson, D.A.; Rempe, J.L.

    1996-03-01

    The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Accident Sequence Precursor program pursues the ultimate objective of performing risk significant evaluations on operational events (precursors) occurring in commercial nuclear power plants. To achieve this objective, the Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research is supporting the development of simple probabilistic risk assessment models for all commercial nuclear power plants (NPP) in the U.S. Presently, only simple Level 1 plant models have been developed which estimate core damage frequencies. In order to provide a true risk perspective, the consequences associated with postulated core damage accidents also need to be considered. With the objective of performing risk evaluations in an integrated and consistent manner, a linked event tree approach which propagates the front end results to back end was developed. This approach utilizes simple plant models that analyze the response of the NPP containment structure in the context of a core damage accident, estimate the magnitude and timing of a radioactive release to the environment, and calculate the consequences for a given release. Detailed models and results from previous studies, such as the NUREG-1150 study, are used to quantify these simple models. These simple models are then linked to the existing Level 1 models, and are evaluated using the SAPHIRE code. To demonstrate the approach, prototypic models have been developed for a boiling water reactor, Peach Bottom, and a pressurized water reactor, Zion.

  5. Accident sequence precursor analysis level 2/3 model development

    SciTech Connect

    Lui, C.H.; Galyean, W.J.; Brownson, D.A.

    1997-02-01

    The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission`s Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) program currently uses simple Level 1 models to assess the conditional core damage probability for operational events occurring in commercial nuclear power plants (NPP). Since not all accident sequences leading to core damage will result in the same radiological consequences, it is necessary to develop simple Level 2/3 models that can be used to analyze the response of the NPP containment structure in the context of a core damage accident, estimate the magnitude of the resulting radioactive releases to the environment, and calculate the consequences associated with these releases. The simple Level 2/3 model development work was initiated in 1995, and several prototype models have been completed. Once developed, these simple Level 2/3 models are linked to the simple Level 1 models to provide risk perspectives for operational events. This paper describes the methods implemented for the development of these simple Level 2/3 ASP models, and the linkage process to the existing Level 1 models.

  6. Risk-based Analysis of Construction Accidents in Iran During 2007-2011-Meta Analyze Study

    PubMed Central

    AMIRI, Mehran; ARDESHIR, Abdollah; FAZEL ZARANDI, Mohammad Hossein

    2014-01-01

    Abstract Background The present study aimed to investigate the characteristics of occupational accidents and frequency and severity of work related accidents in the construction industry among Iranian insured workers during the years 20072011. Methods The Iranian Social Security Organization (ISSO) accident database containing 21,864 cases between the years 2007-2011 was applied in this study. In the next step, Total Accident Rate (TRA), Total Severity Index (TSI), and Risk Factor (RF) were defined. The core of this work is devoted to analyzing the data from different perspectives such as age of workers, occupation and construction phase, day of the week, time of the day, seasonal analysis, regional considerations, type of accident, and body parts affected. Results Workers between 15-19 years old (TAR=13.4%) are almost six times more exposed to risk of accident than the average of all ages (TAR=2.51%). Laborers and structural workers (TAR=66.6%) and those working at heights (TAR=47.2%) experience more accidents than other groups of workers. Moreover, older workers over 65 years old (TSI=1.97%> average TSI=1.60%), work supervisors (TSI=12.20% >average TSI=9.09%), and night shift workers (TSI=1.89% >average TSI=1.47%) are more prone to severe accidents. Conclusion It is recommended that laborers, young workers, weekend and night shift workers be supervised more carefully in the workplace. Use of Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) should be compulsory in working environments, and special attention should be undertaken to people working outdoors and at heights. It is also suggested that policymakers pay more attention to the improvement of safety conditions in deprived and cold western regions. PMID:26005662

  7. [Comparative analysis of the radionuclide composition in fallout after the Chernobyl and the Fukushima accidents].

    PubMed

    Kotenko, K V; Shinkarev, S M; Abramov, Iu V; Granovskaia, E O; Iatsenko, V N; Gavrilin, Iu I; Margulis, U Ia; Garetskaia, O S; Imanaka, T; Khoshi, M

    2012-01-01

    The nuclear accident occurred at Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) (March 11, 2011) similarly to the accident at the Chernobyl NPP (April 26, 1986) is related to the level 7 of the INES. It is of interest to make an analysis of the radionuclide composition of the fallout following the both accidents. The results of the spectrometric measurements were used in that comparative analysis. Two areas following the Chernobyl accident were considered: (1) the near zone of the fallout - the Belarusian part of the central spot extended up to 60 km around the Chernobyl NPS and (2) the far zone of the fallout--the "Gomel-Mogilev" spot centered 200 km to the north-northeast of the damaged reactor. In the case of Fukushima accident the near zone up to about 60 km considered. The comparative analysis has been done with respect to refractory radionuclides (95Zr, 95Nb, 141Ce, 144Ce), as well as to the intermediate and volatile radionuclides 103Ru, 106Ru, 131I, 134Cs, 137Cs, 140La, 140Ba and the results of such a comparison have been discussed. With respect to exposure to the public the most important radionuclides are 131I and 137Cs. For the both accidents the ratios of 131I/137Cs in the considered soil samples are in the similar ranges: (3-50) for the Chernobyl samples and (5-70) for the Fukushima samples. Similarly to the Chernobyl accident a clear tendency that the ratio of 131I/137Cs in the fallout decreases with the increase of the ground deposition density of 137Cs within the trace related to a radioactive cloud has been identified for the Fukushima accident. It looks like this is a universal tendency for the ratio of 131I/137Cs versus the 137Cs ground deposition density in the fallout along the trace of a radioactive cloud as a result of a heavy accident at the NPP with radionuclides releases into the environment. This tendency is important for an objective reconstruction of 131I fallout based on the results of 137Cs measurements of soil samples carried out at

  8. Application of Latin hypercube sampling to RADTRAN 4 truck accident risk sensitivity analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Mills, G.S.; Neuhauser, K.S.; Kanipe, F.L.

    1994-12-31

    The sensitivity of calculated dose estimates to various RADTRAN 4 inputs is an available output for incident-free analysis because the defining equations are linear and sensitivity to each variable can be calculated in closed mathematical form. However, the necessary linearity is not characteristic of the equations used in calculation of accident dose risk, making a similar tabulation of sensitivity for RADTRAN 4 accident analysis impossible. Therefore, a study of sensitivity of accident risk results to variation of input parameters was performed using representative routes, isotopic inventories, and packagings. It was determined that, of the approximately two dozen RADTRAN 4 input parameters pertinent to accident analysis, only a subset of five or six has significant influence on typical analyses or is subject to random uncertainties. These five or six variables were selected as candidates for Latin Hypercube Sampling applications. To make the effect of input uncertainties on calculated accident risk more explicit, distributions and limits were determined for two variables which had approximately proportional effects on calculated doses: Pasquill Category probability (PSPROB) and link population density (LPOPD). These distributions and limits were used as input parameters to Sandia`s Latin Hypercube Sampling code to generate 50 sets of RADTRAN 4 input parameters used together with point estimates of other necessary inputs to calculate 50 observations of estimated accident dose risk.Tabulations of the RADTRAN 4 accident risk input variables and their influence on output plus illustrative examples of the LHS calculations, for truck transport situations that are typical of past experience, will be presented .

  9. Analysis of occupational accidents: prevention through the use of additional technical safety measures for machinery

    PubMed Central

    Dźwiarek, Marek; Latała, Agata

    2016-01-01

    This article presents an analysis of results of 1035 serious and 341 minor accidents recorded by Poland's National Labour Inspectorate (PIP) in 2005–2011, in view of their prevention by means of additional safety measures applied by machinery users. Since the analysis aimed at formulating principles for the application of technical safety measures, the analysed accidents should bear additional attributes: the type of machine operation, technical safety measures and the type of events causing injuries. The analysis proved that the executed tasks and injury-causing events were closely connected and there was a relation between casualty events and technical safety measures. In the case of tasks consisting of manual feeding and collecting materials, the injuries usually occur because of the rotating motion of tools or crushing due to a closing motion. Numerous accidents also happened in the course of supporting actions, like removing pollutants, correcting material position, cleaning, etc. PMID:26652689

  10. MELCOR code analysis of a severe accident LOCA at Peach Bottom Plant

    SciTech Connect

    Carbajo, J.J. )

    1993-01-01

    A design-basis loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) concurrent with complete loss of the emergency core cooling systems (ECCSs) has been analyzed for the Peach Bottom atomic station unit 2 using the MELCOR code, version 1.8.1. The purpose of this analysis is to calculate best-estimate times for the important events of this accident sequence and best-estimate source terms. Calculated pressures and temperatures at the beginning of the transient have been compared to results from the Peach Bottom final safety analysis report (FSAR). MELCOR-calculated source terms have been compared to source terms reported in the NUREG-1465 draft.

  11. RELAP5 Application to Accident Analysis of the NIST Research Reactor

    SciTech Connect

    Baek, J.; Cuadra Gascon, A.; Cheng, L.Y.; Diamond, D.

    2012-03-18

    Detailed safety analyses have been performed for the 20 MW D{sub 2}O moderated research reactor (NBSR) at the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). The time-dependent analysis of the primary system is determined with a RELAP5 transient analysis model that includes the reactor vessel, the pump, heat exchanger, fuel element geometry, and flow channels for both the six inner and twenty-four outer fuel elements. A post-processing of the simulation results has been conducted to evaluate minimum critical heat flux ratio (CHFR) using the Sudo-Kaminaga correlation. Evaluations are performed for the following accidents: (1) the control rod withdrawal startup accident and (2) the maximum reactivity insertion accident. In both cases the RELAP5 results indicate that there is adequate margin to CHF and no damage to the fuel will occur because of sufficient coolant flow through the fuel channels and the negative scram reactivity insertion.

  12. Impact of spatial kinetics in severe accident analysis for a large HWR

    SciTech Connect

    Morris, E.E.

    1994-03-01

    The impact on spatial kinetics on the analysis of severe accidents initiated by the unprotected withdrawal of one or more control rods is investigated for a large heavy water reactor. Large inter- and intra-assembly power shifts are observed, and the importance of detailed geometrical modeling of fuel assemblies is demonstrated. Neglect of space-time effects is shown to lead to erroneous estimates of safety margins, and of accident consequences in the event safety margins are exceeded. The results and conclusions are typical of what would be expected for any large, loosely coupled core.

  13. Analysis of fission product release behavior during the TMI-2 accident

    SciTech Connect

    Petti, D. A.; Adams, J. P.; Anderson, J. L.; Hobbins, R. R.

    1987-01-01

    An analysis of fission product release during the Three Mile Island Unit 2 (TMI-2) accident has been initiated to provide an understanding of fission product behavior that is consistent with both the best estimate accident scenario and fission product results from the ongoing sample acquisition and examination efforts. ''First principles'' fission product release models are used to describe release from intact, disrupted, and molten fuel. Conclusions relating to fission product release, transport, and chemical form are drawn. 35 refs., 12 figs., 7 tabs.

  14. The accident evolution and barrier function (AEB) model applied to incident analysis in the processing industries.

    PubMed

    Svenson, O

    1991-09-01

    This study develops a theoretical model for accident evolutions and how they can be arrested. The model describes the interaction between technical and human-organizational systems which may lead to an accident. The analytic tool provided by the model gives equal weight to both these types of systems and necessitates simultaneous and interactive accident analysis by engineers and human factors specialists. It can be used in predictive safety analyses as well as in post hoc incident analyses. To illustrate this, the AEB model is applied to an incident reported by the nuclear industry in Sweden. In general, application of the model will indicate where and how safety can be improved, and it also raises questions about issues such as the cost, feasibility, and effectiveness of different ways of increasing safety.

  15. Preliminary Analysis of Aircraft Loss of Control Accidents: Worst Case Precursor Combinations and Temporal Sequencing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Belcastro, Christine M.; Groff, Loren; Newman, Richard L.; Foster, John V.; Crider, Dennis H.; Klyde, David H.; Huston, A. McCall

    2014-01-01

    Aircraft loss of control (LOC) is a leading cause of fatal accidents across all transport airplane and operational classes, and can result from a wide spectrum of hazards, often occurring in combination. Technologies developed for LOC prevention and recovery must therefore be effective under a wide variety of conditions and uncertainties, including multiple hazards, and their validation must provide a means of assessing system effectiveness and coverage of these hazards. This requires the definition of a comprehensive set of LOC test scenarios based on accident and incident data as well as future risks. This paper defines a comprehensive set of accidents and incidents over a recent 15 year period, and presents preliminary analysis results to identify worst-case combinations of causal and contributing factors (i.e., accident precursors) and how they sequence in time. Such analyses can provide insight in developing effective solutions for LOC, and form the basis for developing test scenarios that can be used in evaluating them. Preliminary findings based on the results of this paper indicate that system failures or malfunctions, crew actions or inactions, vehicle impairment conditions, and vehicle upsets contributed the most to accidents and fatalities, followed by inclement weather or atmospheric disturbances and poor visibility. Follow-on research will include finalizing the analysis through a team consensus process, defining future risks, and developing a comprehensive set of test scenarios with correlation to the accidents, incidents, and future risks. Since enhanced engineering simulations are required for batch and piloted evaluations under realistic LOC precursor conditions, these test scenarios can also serve as a high-level requirement for defining the engineering simulation enhancements needed for generating them.

  16. Using global sensitivity analysis to evaluate the uncertainties of future shoreline changes under the Bruun rule assumption

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Le Cozannet, Gonéri; Oliveros, Carlos; Castelle, Bruno; Garcin, Manuel; Idier, Déborah; Pedreros, Rodrigo; Rohmer, Jeremy

    2016-04-01

    Future sandy shoreline changes are often assed by summing the contributions of longshore and cross-shore effects. In such approaches, a contribution of sea-level rise can be incorporated by adding a supplementary term based on the Bruun rule. Here, our objective is to identify where and when the use of the Bruun rule can be (in)validated, in the case of wave-exposed beaches with gentle slopes. We first provide shoreline change scenarios that account for all uncertain hydrosedimentary processes affecting the idealized low- and high-energy coasts described by Stive (2004)[Stive, M. J. F. 2004, How important is global warming for coastal erosion? an editorial comment, Climatic Change, vol. 64, n 12, doi:10.1023/B:CLIM.0000024785.91858. ISSN 0165-0009]. Then, we generate shoreline change scenarios based on probabilistic sea-level rise projections based on IPCC. For scenario RCP 6.0 and 8.5 and in the absence of coastal defenses, the model predicts an observable shift toward generalized beach erosion by the middle of the 21st century. On the contrary, the model predictions are unlikely to differ from the current situation in case of scenario RCP 2.6. To get insight into the relative importance of each source of uncertainties, we quantify each contributions to the variance of the model outcome using a global sensitivity analysis. This analysis shows that by the end of the 21st century, a large part of shoreline change uncertainties are due to the climate change scenario if all anthropogenic greenhousegas emission scenarios are considered equiprobable. To conclude, the analysis shows that under the assumptions above, (in)validating the Bruun rule should be straightforward during the second half of the 21st century and for the RCP 8.5 scenario. Conversely, for RCP 2.6, the noise in shoreline change evolution should continue dominating the signal due to the Bruun effect. This last conclusion can be interpreted as an important potential benefit of climate change mitigation.

  17. SAMPSON Parallel Computation for Sensitivity Analysis of TEPCO's Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant Accident

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pellegrini, M.; Bautista Gomez, L.; Maruyama, N.; Naitoh, M.; Matsuoka, S.; Cappello, F.

    2014-06-01

    On March 11th 2011 a high magnitude earthquake and consequent tsunami struck the east coast of Japan, resulting in a nuclear accident unprecedented in time and extents. After scram started at all power stations affected by the earthquake, diesel generators began operation as designed until tsunami waves reached the power plants located on the east coast. This had a catastrophic impact on the availability of plant safety systems at TEPCO's Fukushima Daiichi, leading to the condition of station black-out from unit 1 to 3. In this article the accident scenario is studied with the SAMPSON code. SAMPSON is a severe accident computer code composed of hierarchical modules to account for the diverse physics involved in the various phases of the accident evolution. A preliminary parallelization analysis of the code was performed using state-of-the-art tools and we demonstrate how this work can be beneficial to the nuclear safety analysis. This paper shows that inter-module parallelization can reduce the time to solution by more than 20%. Furthermore, the parallel code was applied to a sensitivity study for the alternative water injection into TEPCO's Fukushima Daiichi unit 3. Results show that the core melting progression is extremely sensitive to the amount and timing of water injection, resulting in a high probability of partial core melting for unit 3.

  18. Formal Analysis of an Airplane Accident in N{Σ}-Labeled Calculus

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mizutani, Tetsuya; Igarashi, Shigeru; Ikeda, Yasuwo; Shio, Masayuki

    N{Σ}-labeled calculus is a formal system for representation, verification and analysis of time-concerned recognition, knowledge, belief and decision of humans or computer programs together with related external physical or logical phenomena.In this paper, a formal verification and analysis of the JAL near miss accident is presented as an example of cooperating systems controlling continuously changing objects including human factor with misunderstanding or incorrect recognition.

  19. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of food pathway results with the MACCS Reactor Accident Consequence Model

    SciTech Connect

    Helton, J.C.; Johnson, J.D.; Rollstin, J.A.; Shiver, A.W.; Sprung, J.L.

    1995-01-01

    Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis techniques based on Latin hypercube sampling, partial correlation analysis and stepwise regression analysis are used in an investigation with the MACCS model of the food pathways associated with a severe accident at a nuclear power station. The primary purpose of this study is to provide guidance on the variables to be considered in future review work to reduce the uncertainty in the important variables used in the calculation of reactor accident consequences. The effects of 87 imprecisely-known input variables on the following reactor accident consequences are studied: crop growing season dose, crop long-term dose, milk growing season dose, total food pathways dose, total ingestion pathways dose, total long-term pathways dose, area dependent cost, crop disposal cost, milk disposal cost, condemnation area, crop disposal area and milk disposal area. When the predicted variables are considered collectively, the following input variables were found to be the dominant contributors to uncertainty: fraction of cesium deposition on grain fields that is retained on plant surfaces and transferred directly to grain, maximum allowable ground concentrations of Cs-137 and Sr-90 for production of crops, ground concentrations of Cs-134, Cs-137 and I-131 at which the disposal of milk will be initiated due to accidents that occur during the growing season, ground concentrations of Cs-134, I-131 and Sr-90 at which the disposal of crops will be initiated due to accidents that occur during the growing season, rate of depletion of Cs-137 and Sr-90 from the root zone, transfer of Sr-90 from soil to legumes, transfer of Cs-137 from soil to pasture, transfer of cesium from animal feed to meat, and the transfer of cesium, iodine and strontium from animal feed to milk.

  20. Implementation of numerical simulation techniques in analysis of the accidents in complex technological systems

    SciTech Connect

    Klishin, G.S.; Seleznev, V.E.; Aleoshin, V.V.

    1997-12-31

    Gas industry enterprises such as main pipelines, compressor gas transfer stations, gas extracting complexes belong to the energy intensive industry. Accidents there can result into the catastrophes and great social, environmental and economic losses. Annually, according to the official data several dozens of large accidents take place at the pipes in the USA and Russia. That is why prevention of the accidents, analysis of the mechanisms of their development and prediction of their possible consequences are acute and important tasks nowadays. The accidents reasons are usually of a complicated character and can be presented as a complex combination of natural, technical and human factors. Mathematical and computer simulations are safe, rather effective and comparatively inexpensive methods of the accident analysis. It makes it possible to analyze different mechanisms of a failure occurrence and development, to assess its consequences and give recommendations to prevent it. Besides investigation of the failure cases, numerical simulation techniques play an important role in the treatment of the diagnostics results of the objects and in further construction of mathematical prognostic simulations of the object behavior in the period of time between two inspections. While solving diagnostics tasks and in the analysis of the failure cases, the techniques of theoretical mechanics, of qualitative theory of different equations, of mechanics of a continuous medium, of chemical macro-kinetics and optimizing techniques are implemented in the Conversion Design Bureau {number_sign}5 (DB{number_sign}5). Both universal and special numerical techniques and software (SW) are being developed in DB{number_sign}5 for solution of such tasks. Almost all of them are calibrated on the calculations of the simulated and full-scale experiments performed at the VNIIEF and MINATOM testing sites. It is worth noting that in the long years of work there has been established a fruitful and effective

  1. The Effect of Multicollinearity and the Violation of the Assumption of Normality on the Testing of Hypotheses in Regression Analysis.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Vasu, Ellen S.; Elmore, Patricia B.

    The effects of the violation of the assumption of normality coupled with the condition of multicollinearity upon the outcome of testing the hypothesis Beta equals zero in the two-predictor regression equation is investigated. A monte carlo approach was utilized in which three differenct distributions were sampled for two sample sizes over…

  2. Preliminary Review of Models, Assumptions, and Key Data used in Performance Assessments and Composite Analysis at the Idaho National Laboratory

    SciTech Connect

    Arthur S. Rood; Swen O. Magnuson

    2009-07-01

    This document is in response to a request by Ming Zhu, DOE-EM to provide a preliminary review of existing models and data used in completed or soon to be completed Performance Assessments and Composite Analyses (PA/CA) documents, to identify codes, methodologies, main assumptions, and key data sets used.

  3. Overview of Sandia National Laboratories and Khlopin Radium Institute collaborative radiological accident consequence analysis efforts

    SciTech Connect

    Young, M.L.; Carlson, D.D.; Lazarev, L.N.; Petrov, B.F.; Romanovskiy, V.N.

    1997-05-01

    In January, 1995 a collaborative effort to improve radiological consequence analysis methods and tools was initiated between the V.G. Khlopin Institute (KRI) and Sandia National Laboratories (SNL). The purpose of the collaborative effort was to transfer SNL`s consequence analysis methods to KRI and identify opportunities for collaborative efforts to solve mutual problems relating to the safety of radiochemical facilities. A second purpose was to improve SNL`s consequence analysis methods by incorporating the radiological accident field experience of KRI scientists (e.g. the Chernobyl and Kyshtym accidents). The initial collaborative effort focused on the identification of: safety criteria that radiochemical facilities in Russia must meet; analyses/measures required to demonstrate that safety criteria have been met; and data required to complete the analyses/measures identified to demonstrate the safety basis of a facility.

  4. Analysis of Japanese Radionuclide Monitoring Data of Food Before and After the Fukushima Nuclear Accident

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    In an unprecedented food monitoring campaign for radionuclides, the Japanese government took action to secure food safety after the Fukushima nuclear accident (Mar. 11, 2011). In this work we analyze a part of the immense data set, in particular radiocesium contaminations in food from the first year after the accident. Activity concentrations in vegetables peaked immediately after the campaign had commenced, but they decreased quickly, so that by early summer 2011 only a few samples exceeded the regulatory limits. Later, accumulating mushrooms and dried produce led to several exceedances of the limits again. Monitoring of meat started with significant delay, especially outside Fukushima prefecture. After a buildup period, contamination levels of meat peaked by July 2011 (beef). Levels then decreased quickly, but peaked again in September 2011, which was primarily due to boar meat (a known accumulator of radiocesium). Tap water was less contaminated; any restrictions for tap water were canceled by April 1, 2011. Pre-Fukushima 137Cs and 90Sr levels (resulting from atmospheric nuclear explosions) in food were typically lower than 0.5 Bq/kg, whereby meat was typically higher in 137Cs and vegetarian produce was usually higher in 90Sr. The correlation of background radiostrontium and radiocesium indicated that the regulatory assumption after the Fukushima accident of a maximum activity of 90Sr being 10% of the respective 137Cs concentrations may soon be at risk, as the 90Sr/137Cs ratio increases with time. This should be taken into account for the current Japanese food policy as the current regulation will soon underestimate the 90Sr content of Japanese foods. PMID:25621976

  5. [Analysis of radiation-hygienic and medical consequences of the Chernobyl accident].

    PubMed

    Onishchenko, G G

    2013-01-01

    Since the day of "the Chernobyl accident" in 1986 more than 25 years have been past. Radioactively contaminated areas 14 subjects of the Russian Federation with a total area of more than 50 thousand km2, where 1.5 million people now reside were exposed to radioactive contamination. Currently, a system of comprehensive evaluation of radiation doses of the population affected by the "Chernobyl accidents", including 11 guidance documents has been created. There are methodically provided works on the assessment of average annual, accumulated and predicted radiation doses of population and its critical groups, as well as doses to the thyroid gland The relevance of the analysis of the consequences of the "Chernobyl accident" is demonstrated by the events in Japan, at nuclear power Fukusima-1. In 2011 - 20/2 there were carried out comprehensive maritime expeditions under the auspices of the Russian Geographical Society with the participation of relevant ministries and agencies, leading academic institutions in Russia. In 2012, work was carried out on radiation protection of the population from the potential transboundary impact of the accident at the Japanese nuclear power plant Fukushima-l. The results provide a basis for the favorable outlook for the radiation environment in our Far East and the Pacific coast of Russia.

  6. Analysis of the FeCrAl Accident Tolerant Fuel Concept Benefits during BWR Station Blackout Accidents

    SciTech Connect

    Robb, Kevin R

    2015-01-01

    Iron-chromium-aluminum (FeCrAl) alloys are being considered for fuel concepts with enhanced accident tolerance. FeCrAl alloys have very slow oxidation kinetics and good strength at high temperatures. FeCrAl could be used for fuel cladding in light water reactors and/or as channel box material in boiling water reactors (BWRs). To estimate the potential safety gains afforded by the FeCrAl concept, the MELCOR code was used to analyze a range of postulated station blackout severe accident scenarios in a BWR/4 reactor employing FeCrAl. The simulations utilize the most recently known thermophysical properties and oxidation kinetics for FeCrAl. Overall, when compared to the traditional Zircaloy-based cladding and channel box, the FeCrAl concept provides a few extra hours of time for operators to take mitigating actions and/or for evacuations to take place. A coolable core geometry is retained longer, enhancing the ability to stabilize an accident. Finally, due to the slower oxidation kinetics, substantially less hydrogen is generated, and the generation is delayed in time. This decreases the amount of non-condensable gases in containment and the potential for deflagrations to inhibit the accident response.

  7. The assumptions of computing

    SciTech Connect

    Huggins, J.K.

    1994-12-31

    The use of computers, like any technological activity, is not content-neutral. Users of computers constantly interact with assumptions regarding worthwhile activity which are embedded in any computing system. Directly questioning these assumptions in the context of computing allows us to develop an understanding of responsible computing.

  8. Adult Learning Assumptions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Baskas, Richard S.

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to examine Knowles' theory of andragogy and his six assumptions of how adults learn while providing evidence to support two of his assumptions based on the theory of andragogy. As no single theory explains how adults learn, it can best be assumed that adults learn through the accumulation of formal and informal…

  9. Pressure vessels and piping design, analysis, and severe accidents. PVP-Volume 331

    SciTech Connect

    Dermenjian, A.A.

    1996-12-31

    The primary objective of the Design and Analysis Committee of the ASME Pressure Vessels and Piping Division is to provide a forum for the dissemination of information and the advancement of current theories and practices in the design and analysis of pressure vessels, piping systems, and components. This volume is divided into the following six sections: power plant piping and supports 1--3; applied dynamic response analysis; severe accident analysis; and student papers. Separate abstracts were prepared for 22 papers in this volume.

  10. Coupled thermal analysis applied to the study of the rod ejection accident

    SciTech Connect

    Gonnet, M.

    2012-07-01

    An advanced methodology for the assessment of fuel-rod thermal margins under RIA conditions has been developed by AREVA NP SAS. With the emergence of RIA analytical criteria, the study of the Rod Ejection Accident (REA) would normally require the analysis of each fuel rod, slice by slice, over the whole core. Up to now the strategy used to overcome this difficulty has been to perform separate analyses of sampled fuel pins with conservative hypotheses for thermal properties and boundary conditions. In the advanced methodology, the evaluation model for the Rod Ejection Accident (REA) integrates the node average fuel and coolant properties calculation for neutron feedback purpose as well as the peak fuel and coolant time-dependent properties for criteria checking. The calculation grid for peak fuel and coolant properties can be specified from the assembly pitch down to the cell pitch. The comparative analysis of methodologies shows that coupled methodology allows reducing excessive conservatism of the uncoupled approach. (authors)

  11. A flammability and combustion model for integrated accident analysis. [Advanced light water reactors

    SciTech Connect

    Plys, M.G.; Astleford, R.D.; Epstein, M. )

    1988-01-01

    A model for flammability characteristics and combustion of hydrogen and carbon monoxide mixtures is presented for application to severe accident analysis of Advanced Light Water Reactors (ALWR's). Flammability of general mixtures for thermodynamic conditions anticipated during a severe accident is quantified with a new correlation technique applied to data for several fuel and inertant mixtures and using accepted methods for combining these data. Combustion behavior is quantified by a mechanistic model consisting of a continuity and momentum balance for the burned gases, and considering an uncertainty parameter to match the idealized process to experiment. Benchmarks against experiment demonstrate the validity of this approach for a single recommended value of the flame flux multiplier parameter. The models presented here are equally applicable to analysis of current LWR's. 21 refs., 16 figs., 6 tabs.

  12. Sensitivity analysis of incomplete longitudinal data departing from the missing at random assumption: Methodology and application in a clinical trial with drop-outs.

    PubMed

    Moreno-Betancur, M; Chavance, M

    2016-08-01

    Statistical analyses of longitudinal data with drop-outs based on direct likelihood, and using all the available data, provide unbiased and fully efficient estimates under some assumptions about the drop-out mechanism. Unfortunately, these assumptions can never be tested from the data. Thus, sensitivity analyses should be routinely performed to assess the robustness of inferences to departures from these assumptions. However, each specific scientific context requires different considerations when setting up such an analysis, no standard method exists and this is still an active area of research. We propose a flexible procedure to perform sensitivity analyses when dealing with continuous outcomes, which are described by a linear mixed model in an initial likelihood analysis. The methodology relies on the pattern-mixture model factorisation of the full data likelihood and was validated in a simulation study. The approach was prompted by a randomised clinical trial for sleep-maintenance insomnia treatment. This case study illustrated the practical value of our approach and underlined the need for sensitivity analyses when analysing data with drop-outs: some of the conclusions from the initial analysis were shown to be reliable, while others were found to be fragile and strongly dependent on modelling assumptions. R code for implementation is provided.

  13. Human and organisational factors in maritime accidents: analysis of collisions at sea using the HFACS.

    PubMed

    Chauvin, Christine; Lardjane, Salim; Morel, Gaël; Clostermann, Jean-Pierre; Langard, Benoît

    2013-10-01

    Over the last decade, the shipping industry has implemented a number of measures aimed at improving its safety level (such as new regulations or new forms of team training). Despite this evolution, shipping accidents, and particularly collisions, remain a major concern. This paper presents a modified version of the Human Factors Analysis and Classification System, which has been adapted to the maritime context and used to analyse human and organisational factors in collisions reported by the Marine Accident and Investigation Branch (UK) and the Transportation Safety Board (Canada). The analysis shows that most collisions are due to decision errors. At the precondition level, it highlights the importance of the following factors: poor visibility and misuse of instruments (environmental factors), loss of situation awareness or deficit of attention (conditions of operators), deficits in inter-ship communications or Bridge Resource Management (personnel factors). At the leadership level, the analysis reveals the frequent planning of inappropriate operations and non-compliance with the Safety Management System (SMS). The Multiple Accident Analysis provides an important finding concerning three classes of accidents. Inter-ship communications problems and Bridge Resource Management deficiencies are closely linked to collisions occurring in restricted waters and involving pilot-carrying vessels. Another class of collisions is associated with situations of poor visibility, in open sea, and shows deficiencies at every level of the socio-technical system (technical environment, condition of operators, leadership level, and organisational level). The third class is characterised by non-compliance with the SMS. This study shows the importance of Bridge Resource Management for situations of navigation with a pilot on board in restricted waters. It also points out the necessity to investigate, for situations of navigation in open sea, the masters' decisions in critical conditions

  14. Reactor Accident Analysis Methodology for the Advanced Test Reactor Critical Facility Documented Safety Analysis Upgrade

    SciTech Connect

    Gregg L. Sharp; R. T. McCracken

    2003-06-01

    The regulatory requirement to develop an upgraded safety basis for a DOE nuclear facility was realized in January 2001 by issuance of a revision to Title 10 of the Code of Federal Regulations Section 830 (10 CFR 830).1 Subpart B of 10 CFR 830, “Safety Basis Requirements,” requires a contractor responsible for a DOE Hazard Category 1, 2, or 3 nuclear facility to either submit by April 9, 2001 the existing safety basis which already meets the requirements of Subpart B, or to submit by April 10, 2003 an upgraded facility safety basis that meets the revised requirements.1 10 CFR 830 identifies Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Regulatory Guide 1.70, “Standard Format and Content of Safety Analysis Reports for Nuclear Power Plants”2 as a safe harbor methodology for preparation of a DOE reactor documented safety analysis (DSA). The regulation also allows for use of a graded approach. This report presents the methodology that was developed for preparing the reactor accident analysis portion of the Advanced Test Reactor Critical Facility (ATRC) upgraded DSA. The methodology was approved by DOE for developing the ATRC safety basis as an appropriate application of a graded approach to the requirements of 10 CFR 830.

  15. Reactor Accident Analysis Methodology for the Advanced Test Reactor Critical Facility Documented Safety Analysis Upgrade

    SciTech Connect

    Sharp, G.L.; McCracken, R.T.

    2003-05-13

    The regulatory requirement to develop an upgraded safety basis for a DOE Nuclear Facility was realized in January 2001 by issuance of a revision to Title 10 of the Code of Federal Regulations Section 830 (10 CFR 830). Subpart B of 10 CFR 830, ''Safety Basis Requirements,'' requires a contractor responsible for a DOE Hazard Category 1, 2, or 3 nuclear facility to either submit by April 9, 2001 the existing safety basis which already meets the requirements of Subpart B, or to submit by April 10, 2003 an upgraded facility safety basis that meets the revised requirements. 10 CFR 830 identifies Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Regulatory Guide 1.70, ''Standard Format and Content of Safety Analysis Reports for Nuclear Power Plants'' as a safe harbor methodology for preparation of a DOE reactor documented safety analysis (DSA). The regulation also allows for use of a graded approach. This report presents the methodology that was developed for preparing the reactor accident analysis portion of the Advanced Test Reactor Critical Facility (ATRC) upgraded DSA. The methodology was approved by DOE for developing the ATRC safety basis as an appropriate application of a graded approach to the requirements of 10 CFR 830.

  16. An association between dietary habits and traffic accidents in patients with chronic liver disease: A data-mining analysis

    PubMed Central

    KAWAGUCHI, TAKUMI; SUETSUGU, TAKURO; OGATA, SHYOU; IMANAGA, MINAMI; ISHII, KUMIKO; ESAKI, NAO; SUGIMOTO, MASAKO; OTSUYAMA, JYURI; NAGAMATSU, AYU; TANIGUCHI, EITARO; ITOU, MINORU; ORIISHI, TETSUHARU; IWASAKI, SHOKO; MIURA, HIROKO; TORIMURA, TAKUJI

    2016-01-01

    The incidence of traffic accidents in patients with chronic liver disease (CLD) is high in the USA. However, the characteristics of patients, including dietary habits, differ between Japan and the USA. The present study investigated the incidence of traffic accidents in CLD patients and the clinical profiles associated with traffic accidents in Japan using a data-mining analysis. A cross-sectional study was performed and 256 subjects [148 CLD patients (CLD group) and 106 patients with other digestive diseases (disease control group)] were enrolled; 2 patients were excluded. The incidence of traffic accidents was compared between the two groups. Independent factors for traffic accidents were analyzed using logistic regression and decision-tree analyses. The incidence of traffic accidents did not differ between the CLD and disease control groups (8.8 vs. 11.3%). The results of the logistic regression analysis showed that yoghurt consumption was the only independent risk factor for traffic accidents (odds ratio, 0.37; 95% confidence interval, 0.16–0.85; P=0.0197). Similarly, the results of the decision-tree analysis showed that yoghurt consumption was the initial divergence variable. In patients who consumed yoghurt habitually, the incidence of traffic accidents was 6.6%, while that in patients who did not consume yoghurt was 16.0%. CLD was not identified as an independent factor in the logistic regression and decision-tree analyses. In conclusion, the difference in the incidence of traffic accidents in Japan between the CLD and disease control groups was insignificant. Furthermore, yoghurt consumption was an independent negative risk factor for traffic accidents in patients with digestive diseases, including CLD. PMID:27123257

  17. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of early exposure results with the MACCS Reactor Accident Consequence Model

    SciTech Connect

    Helton, J.C.; Johnson, J.D.; McKay, M.D.; Shiver, A.W.; Sprung, J.L.

    1995-01-01

    Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis techniques based on Latin hypercube sampling, partial correlation analysis and stepwise regression analysis are used in an investigation with the MACCS model of the early health effects associated with a severe accident at a nuclear power station. The primary purpose of this study is to provide guidance on the variables to be considered in future review work to reduce the uncertainty in the important variables used in the calculation of reactor accident consequences. The effects of 34 imprecisely known input variables on the following reactor accident consequences are studied: number of early fatalities, number of cases of prodromal vomiting, population dose within 10 mi of the reactor, population dose within 1000 mi of the reactor, individual early fatality probability within 1 mi of the reactor, and maximum early fatality distance. When the predicted variables are considered collectively, the following input variables were found to be the dominant contributors to uncertainty: scaling factor for horizontal dispersion, dry deposition velocity, inhalation protection factor for nonevacuees, groundshine shielding factor for nonevacuees, early fatality hazard function alpha value for bone marrow exposure, and scaling factor for vertical dispersion.

  18. Methods for Detector Placement and Analysis of Criticality Accident Alarm Systems

    SciTech Connect

    Peplow, Douglas E.; Wetzel, Larry

    2012-01-01

    -to-detect accident sites, which may not have included every possible accident location. Analog calculations (no biasing) simply follow particles naturally. For sparse buildings and line-of-sight calculations, analog Monte Carlo (MC) may be adequate. For buildings with internal walls or large amounts of heavy equipment (dense geometry), variance reduction may be required. Calculations employing the CADIS method use a deterministic calculation to create an importance map and a matching biased source distribution that optimize the final MC to quickly calculate one specific tally. Calculations employing the FW-CADIS method use two deterministic calculations (one forward and one adjoint) to create an importance map and a matching biased source distribution that are designed to make the MC calculate a mesh tally with more uniform uncertainties in both high-dose and low-dose areas. Depending on the geometry of the problem, the number of detectors, and the number of accident sites, different approaches to CAAS placement studies can be taken. These are summarized in Table I. SCALE 6.1 contains the MAVRIC sequence, which can be used to perform any of the forward-based approaches outlined in Table I. For analog calculations, MAVRIC simply calls the Monaco MC code. For CADIS and FW-CADIS, MAVRIC uses the Denovo discrete ordinates (SN) deterministic code to generate the importance map and biased source used by Monaco. An adjoint capability is currently being added to Monaco and should be available in the next release of SCALE. An adjoint-based approach could be performed with Denovo alone - although fine meshes, large amounts of memory, and long computation times may be required to obtain accurate solutions. Coarse-mesh SN simulations could be employed for adjoint-based scoping studies until the adjoint capability in Monaco is complete. CAAS placement studies, especially those dealing with mesh tallies, require some extra utilities to aid in the analysis. Detectors must receive a minimum dose

  19. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of chronic exposure results with the MACCS reactor accident consequence model

    SciTech Connect

    Helton, J.C.; Johnson, J.D.; Rollstin, J.A.; Shiver, A.W.; Sprung, J.L.

    1995-01-01

    Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis techniques based on Latin hypercube sampling, partial correlation analysis and stepwise regression analysis are used in an investigation with the MACCS model of the chronic exposure pathways associated with a severe accident at a nuclear power station. The primary purpose of this study is to provide guidance on the variables to be considered in future review work to reduce the uncertainty in the important variables used in the calculation of reactor accident consequences. The effects of 75 imprecisely known input variables on the following reactor accident consequences are studied: crop growing season dose, crop long-term dose, water ingestion dose, milk growing season dose, long-term groundshine dose, long-term inhalation dose, total food pathways dose, total ingestion pathways dose, total long-term pathways dose, total latent cancer fatalities, area-dependent cost, crop disposal cost, milk disposal cost, population-dependent cost, total economic cost, condemnation area, condemnation population, crop disposal area and milk disposal area. When the predicted variables are considered collectively, the following input variables were found to be the dominant contributors to uncertainty: dry deposition velocity, transfer of cesium from animal feed to milk, transfer of cesium from animal feed to meat, ground concentration of Cs-134 at which the disposal of milk products will be initiated, transfer of Sr-90 from soil to legumes, maximum allowable ground concentration of Sr-90 for production of crops, fraction of cesium entering surface water that is consumed in drinking water, groundshine shielding factor, scale factor defining resuspension, dose reduction associated with decontamination, and ground concentration of 1-131 at which disposal of crops will be initiated due to accidents that occur during the growing season.

  20. Impact of traffic congestion on road accidents: a spatial analysis of the M25 motorway in England.

    PubMed

    Wang, Chao; Quddus, Mohammed A; Ison, Stephen G

    2009-07-01

    Traffic congestion and road accidents are two external costs of transport and the reduction of their impacts is often one of the primary objectives for transport policy makers. The relationship between traffic congestion and road accidents however is not apparent and less studied. It is speculated that there may be an inverse relationship between traffic congestion and road accidents, and as such this poses a potential dilemma for transport policy makers. This study aims to explore the impact of traffic congestion on the frequency of road accidents using a spatial analysis approach, while controlling for other relevant factors that may affect road accidents. The M25 London orbital motorway, divided into 70 segments, was chosen to conduct this study and relevant data on road accidents, traffic and road characteristics were collected. A robust technique has been developed to map M25 accidents onto its segments. Since existing studies have often used a proxy to measure the level of congestion, this study has employed a precise congestion measurement. A series of Poisson based non-spatial (such as Poisson-lognormal and Poisson-gamma) and spatial (Poisson-lognormal with conditional autoregressive priors) models have been used to account for the effects of both heterogeneity and spatial correlation. The results suggest that traffic congestion has little or no impact on the frequency of road accidents on the M25 motorway. All other relevant factors have provided results consistent with existing studies.

  1. Review of accident analysis calculations, 232-Z seismic scenario

    SciTech Connect

    Ballinger, M.Y.

    1993-05-01

    The 232-Z Building houses what was previously the incinerator facility, which is no longer in service. It is constructed out of concrete blocks and is approximately 37 ft wide by 57 ft long. The building has a single story over the process areas and two stories over the service areas at the north end of the building. The respective roofs are 15 ft and 19 ft above grade and consist of concrete over a metal decking, with insulation and a built-up asphalt gravel covering. This facility is assumed to collapse in the seismic event evaluated in the safety analyses, resulting in the release of a portion of the residual plutonium inventory remaining in the building. The seismic scenario for 232-Z assumes that the block concrete walls collapse, allowing the roof to fall, crushing the contaminated duct and gloveboxes within. This paper is a review of the scenario and methods used to calculate the source term from the seismic event as presented in the Plutonium Finishing Plant Final Safety Analysis Report (WHC 1991) also referred to as the PFP FSAR. Alternate methods of estimating the source term are presented. The calculation of source terms based on the mechanisms of release expected in worst-case scenario is recommended.

  2. Safety culture and accident analysis--a socio-management approach based on organizational safety social capital.

    PubMed

    Rao, Suman

    2007-04-11

    One of the biggest challenges for organizations in today's competitive business environment is to create and preserve a self-sustaining safety culture. Typically, the key drivers of safety culture in many organizations are regulation, audits, safety training, various types of employee exhortations to comply with safety norms, etc. However, less evident factors like networking relationships and social trust amongst employees, as also extended networking relationships and social trust of organizations with external stakeholders like government, suppliers, regulators, etc., which constitute the safety social capital in the Organization--seem to also influence the sustenance of organizational safety culture. Can erosion in safety social capital cause deterioration in safety culture and contribute to accidents? If so, how does it contribute? As existing accident analysis models do not provide answers to these questions, CAMSoC (Curtailing Accidents by Managing Social Capital), an accident analysis model, is proposed. As an illustration, five accidents: Bhopal (India), Hyatt Regency (USA), Tenerife (Canary Islands), Westray (Canada) and Exxon Valdez (USA) have been analyzed using CAMSoC. This limited cross-industry analysis provides two key socio-management insights: the biggest source of motivation that causes deviant behavior leading to accidents is 'Faulty Value Systems'. The second biggest source is 'Enforceable Trust'. From a management control perspective, deterioration in safety culture and resultant accidents is more due to the 'action controls' rather than explicit 'cultural controls'. Future research directions to enhance the model's utility through layering are addressed briefly.

  3. Safety culture and accident analysis--a socio-management approach based on organizational safety social capital.

    PubMed

    Rao, Suman

    2007-04-11

    One of the biggest challenges for organizations in today's competitive business environment is to create and preserve a self-sustaining safety culture. Typically, the key drivers of safety culture in many organizations are regulation, audits, safety training, various types of employee exhortations to comply with safety norms, etc. However, less evident factors like networking relationships and social trust amongst employees, as also extended networking relationships and social trust of organizations with external stakeholders like government, suppliers, regulators, etc., which constitute the safety social capital in the Organization--seem to also influence the sustenance of organizational safety culture. Can erosion in safety social capital cause deterioration in safety culture and contribute to accidents? If so, how does it contribute? As existing accident analysis models do not provide answers to these questions, CAMSoC (Curtailing Accidents by Managing Social Capital), an accident analysis model, is proposed. As an illustration, five accidents: Bhopal (India), Hyatt Regency (USA), Tenerife (Canary Islands), Westray (Canada) and Exxon Valdez (USA) have been analyzed using CAMSoC. This limited cross-industry analysis provides two key socio-management insights: the biggest source of motivation that causes deviant behavior leading to accidents is 'Faulty Value Systems'. The second biggest source is 'Enforceable Trust'. From a management control perspective, deterioration in safety culture and resultant accidents is more due to the 'action controls' rather than explicit 'cultural controls'. Future research directions to enhance the model's utility through layering are addressed briefly. PMID:16911855

  4. Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Late health effects uncertainty assessment. Volume 1: Main report

    SciTech Connect

    Little, M.P.; Muirhead, C.R.; Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P.; Cooke, R.M.; Harper, F.T.; Hora, S.C.

    1997-12-01

    The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA late health effects models.

  5. Preliminary analysis of graphite dust releasing behavior in accident for HTR

    SciTech Connect

    Peng, W.; Yang, X. Y.; Yu, S. Y.; Wang, J.

    2012-07-01

    The behavior of the graphite dust is important to the safety of High Temperature Gas-cooled Reactors. This study investigated the flow of graphite dust in helium mainstream. The analysis of the stresses acting on the graphite dust indicated that gas drag played the absolute leading role. Based on the understanding of the importance of gas drag, an experimental system is set up for the research of dust releasing behavior in accident. Air driven by centrifugal fan is used as the working fluid instead of helium because helium is expensive, easy to leak which make it difficult to seal. The graphite particles, with the size distribution same as in HTR, are added to the experiment loop. The graphite dust releasing behavior at the loss-of-coolant accident will be investigated by a sonic nozzle. (authors)

  6. Thermodynamic analysis of cesium and iodine behavior in severe light water reactor accidents

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Minato, Kazuo

    1991-11-01

    In order to understand the release and transport behavior of cesium (Cs) and iodine (I) in severe light water reactor accidents, chemical forms of Cs and I in steam-hydrogen mixtures were analyzed thermodynamically. In the calculations reactions of boron (B) with Cs were taken into consideration. The analysis showed that B plays an important role in determining chemical forms of Cs. The main Cs-containing species are CsBO 2(g) and CsBO 2(l), depending on temperature. The contribution of CsOH(g) is minor. The main I-containing species are HI(g) and CsI(g) over the wide ranges of the parameters considered. Calculations were also carried out under the conditions of the Three Mile Island Unit 2 accident.

  7. Speech analysis as an index of alcohol intoxication--the Exxon Valdez accident.

    PubMed

    Brenner, M; Cash, J R

    1991-09-01

    As part of its investigation of the EXXON VALDEZ tankship accident and oil spill, the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) examined the master's speech for alcohol-related effects. Recorded speech samples were obtained from marine radio communications tapes. The samples were tested for four effects associated with alcohol consumption is available scientific literature: slowed speech, speech errors, misarticulation of difficult sounds ("slurring"), and audible changes in speech quality. It was found that speech immediately before and after the accident displayed large changes of the sort associated with alcohol consumption. These changes were not readily explained by fatigue, psychological stress, drug effects, or medical problems. Speech analysis appears to be a useful technique to provide secondary evidence of alcohol impairment. PMID:1930083

  8. Speech analysis as an index of alcohol intoxication--the Exxon Valdez accident.

    PubMed

    Brenner, M; Cash, J R

    1991-09-01

    As part of its investigation of the EXXON VALDEZ tankship accident and oil spill, the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) examined the master's speech for alcohol-related effects. Recorded speech samples were obtained from marine radio communications tapes. The samples were tested for four effects associated with alcohol consumption is available scientific literature: slowed speech, speech errors, misarticulation of difficult sounds ("slurring"), and audible changes in speech quality. It was found that speech immediately before and after the accident displayed large changes of the sort associated with alcohol consumption. These changes were not readily explained by fatigue, psychological stress, drug effects, or medical problems. Speech analysis appears to be a useful technique to provide secondary evidence of alcohol impairment.

  9. Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Early health effects uncertainty assessment. Volume 1: Main report

    SciTech Connect

    Haskin, F.E.; Harper, F.T.; Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P.; Grupa, J.B.

    1997-12-01

    The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA early health effects models.

  10. [Accidents between motorcycles: analysis of cases that occurred in the state of Paraná between July 2010 and June 2011].

    PubMed

    Golias, Andrey Rogério Campos; Caetano, Rosângela

    2013-05-01

    Statistics for accidents between two motorcycles have been overlooked in the vast number of traffic accidents in Brazil, though they deserve closer analysis. This study sought to conduct an epidemiological analysis into accidents between two motorcycles compared with other accidents based on data in the state of Paraná. Information from the Fire Department site was collected for a period of one year (July 2010 to June 2011), reporting the number and type of accident, day of the week, time, number of victims, gender, age and severity of injuries. Accidents involving two motorcycles represented 3.4% of traffic accidents and 6.2% of accidents involving motorcycles; and the victims of these accidents accounted respectively for 4.4% of victims of traffic accidents and 8.5% victims of motorcycle accidents. Accidents occurring on Saturdays involving males aged between 20 and 29 were more common. Among the ten most populated cities in the state, some revealed high accident rate between two motorcycles, which appears to be related to the total number of motorcycles in the cities concerned. Thus, constant analysis of these indices is essential together with the implementation of measures to ensure safer highway traffic. PMID:23670451

  11. Analysis of pedestrian accident costs in Sudan using the willingness-to-pay method.

    PubMed

    Mofadal, Adam I A; Kanitpong, Kunnawee; Jiwattanakulpaisarn, Piyapong

    2015-05-01

    The willingness-to-pay (WTP) with contingent valuation (CV) method has been proven to be a valid tool for the valuation of non-market goods or socio-economic costs of road traffic accidents among communities in developed and developing countries. Research on accident costing tends to estimate the value of statistical life (VOSL) for all road users by providing a principle for the evaluation of road safety interventions in cost-benefit analysis. As in many other developing countries, the economic loss of traffic accidents in Sudan is noticeable; however, analytical research to estimate the magnitude and impact of that loss is lacking. Reports have shown that pedestrians account for more than 40% of the total number of fatalities. In this study, the WTP-CV approach was used to determine the amount of money that pedestrians in Sudan are willing to pay to reduce the risk of their own death. The impact of the socioeconomic factors, risk levels, and walking behaviors of pedestrians on their WTP for fatality risk reduction was also evaluated. Data were collected from two cities-Khartoum and Nyala-using a survey questionnaire that included 1400 respondents. The WTP-CV Payment Card Questionnaire was designed to ensure that Sudan pedestrians can easily determine the amount of money that would be required to reduce the fatality risk from a pedestrian-related accident. The analysis results show that the estimated VOSL for Sudanese pedestrians ranges from US$0.019 to US$0.101 million. In addition, the willingness-to-pay by Sudanese pedestrians to reduce their fatality risk tends to increase with age, household income, educational level, safety perception, and average time spent on social activities with family and community. PMID:25794921

  12. Analysis 320 coal mine accidents using structural equation modeling with unsafe conditions of the rules and regulations as exogenous variables.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Yingyu; Shao, Wei; Zhang, Mengjia; Li, Hejun; Yin, Shijiu; Xu, Yingjun

    2016-07-01

    Mining has been historically considered as a naturally high-risk industry worldwide. Deaths caused by coal mine accidents are more than the sum of all other accidents in China. Statistics of 320 coal mine accidents in Shandong province show that all accidents contain indicators of "unsafe conditions of the rules and regulations" with a frequency of 1590, accounting for 74.3% of the total frequency of 2140. "Unsafe behaviors of the operator" is another important contributory factor, which mainly includes "operator error" and "venturing into dangerous places." A systems analysis approach was applied by using structural equation modeling (SEM) to examine the interactions between the contributory factors of coal mine accidents. The analysis of results leads to three conclusions. (i) "Unsafe conditions of the rules and regulations," affect the "unsafe behaviors of the operator," "unsafe conditions of the equipment," and "unsafe conditions of the environment." (ii) The three influencing factors of coal mine accidents (with the frequency of effect relation in descending order) are "lack of safety education and training," "rules and regulations of safety production responsibility," and "rules and regulations of supervision and inspection." (iii) The three influenced factors (with the frequency in descending order) of coal mine accidents are "venturing into dangerous places," "poor workplace environment," and "operator error."

  13. Analysis 320 coal mine accidents using structural equation modeling with unsafe conditions of the rules and regulations as exogenous variables.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Yingyu; Shao, Wei; Zhang, Mengjia; Li, Hejun; Yin, Shijiu; Xu, Yingjun

    2016-07-01

    Mining has been historically considered as a naturally high-risk industry worldwide. Deaths caused by coal mine accidents are more than the sum of all other accidents in China. Statistics of 320 coal mine accidents in Shandong province show that all accidents contain indicators of "unsafe conditions of the rules and regulations" with a frequency of 1590, accounting for 74.3% of the total frequency of 2140. "Unsafe behaviors of the operator" is another important contributory factor, which mainly includes "operator error" and "venturing into dangerous places." A systems analysis approach was applied by using structural equation modeling (SEM) to examine the interactions between the contributory factors of coal mine accidents. The analysis of results leads to three conclusions. (i) "Unsafe conditions of the rules and regulations," affect the "unsafe behaviors of the operator," "unsafe conditions of the equipment," and "unsafe conditions of the environment." (ii) The three influencing factors of coal mine accidents (with the frequency of effect relation in descending order) are "lack of safety education and training," "rules and regulations of safety production responsibility," and "rules and regulations of supervision and inspection." (iii) The three influenced factors (with the frequency in descending order) of coal mine accidents are "venturing into dangerous places," "poor workplace environment," and "operator error." PMID:27085591

  14. Analysis on the Density Driven Air-Ingress Accident in VHTRs

    SciTech Connect

    Eung Soo Kim; Chang Oh; Richard Schultz; David Petti

    2008-11-01

    Air-ingress following the pipe rupture is considered to be the most serious accident in the VHTRs due to its potential problems such as core heat-up, structural integrity and toxic gas release. Previously, it has been believed that the main air-ingress mechanism of this accident is the molecular diffusion process between the reactor core and the cavity. However, according to some recent studies, there is another fast air-ingress process that has not been considered before. It is called density-driven stratified flow. The potential for density-driven stratified air ingress into the VHTR following a large-break LOCA was first described in the NGNP Methods Technical Program based on stratified flow studies performed with liquid. Studies on densitygradient driven stratified flow in advanced reactor systems has been the subject of active research for well over a decade since density-gradient dominated stratified flow is an inherent characteristic of passive systems used in advanced reactors. Recently, Oh et al. performed a CFD analysis on the stratified flow in the VHTR, and showed that this effect can significantly accelerate the air-ingress process in the VHTRs. They also proposed to replace the original air-ingress scenario based on the molecular diffusion with the one based on the stratified flow. This paper is focusing on the effect of stratified flow on the results of the air-ingress accident in VHTR

  15. Independent assessment of MELCOR as a severe accident thermal-hydraulic/source term analysis tool

    SciTech Connect

    Madni, I.K.; Eltawila, F.

    1994-01-01

    MELCOR is a fully integrated computer code that models all phases of the progression of severe accidents in light water reactor nuclear power plants, and is being developed for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) by Sandia National Laboratories (SNL). Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) has a program with the NRC called ``MELCOR Verification, Benchmarking, and Applications,`` whose aim is to provide independent assessment of MELCOR as a severe accident thermal-hydraulic/source term analysis tool. The scope of this program is to perform quality control verification on all released versions of MELCOR, to benchmark MELCOR against more mechanistic codes and experimental data from severe fuel damage tests, and to evaluate the ability of MELCOR to simulate long-term severe accident transients in commercial LWRs, by applying the code to model both BWRs and PWRs. Under this program, BNL provided input to the NRC-sponsored MELCOR Peer Review, and is currently contributing to the MELCOR Cooperative Assessment Program (MCAP). This paper presents a summary of MELCOR assessment efforts at BNL and their contribution to NRC goals with respect to MELCOR.

  16. Daya Bay power station accident-consequence analysis for Hong Kong

    SciTech Connect

    Yeung, Mankit Ray; Ching, Ming Kam )

    1989-01-01

    In the past decade, nations in Southeast Asia have been turning to nuclear power to meet their electricity demand. The Daya Bay nuclear power station, a joint venture of the People's Republic of China and Hong Kong, was initiated in the late 1970s and formalized in 1986. The site of the station is {approximately}50 km from downtown Hong Kong and <30 km from some part of the New Territories. Due to its proximity, the project has raised considerable concern for the consequences of potential accidents. The objective of this paper is to present some of the results of the accident-consequence analysis for Hong Kong. In general, the risk to the public near a nuclear power plant from a particular accident is controlled by three factors: (1) source terms, (2) dilution due to atmospheric dispersion, and (3) population distribution surrounding the plant. The present study uses a Gaussian-type puff dispersion/consequence model RADIS with the appropriate parameters for the transport of important radioactive isotopes. RADIS uses a two-dimensional trajectory that models plume movement in a way that is close to the real meteorological data. Modified Pasquill-Gilford diffusion parameters are used to account for vertical and transverse diffusions, and the model takes dry deposition, wet deposition, and groundshine effects into consideration. To demonstrate the applicability of the present model, some sample calculational results are shown.

  17. Light-Weight Radioisotope Heater Unit final safety analysis report (LWRHU-FSAR): Volume 2: Accident Model Document (AMD)

    SciTech Connect

    Johnson, E.W.

    1988-10-01

    The purpose of this volume of the LWRHU SAR, the Accident Model Document (AMD), are to: Identify all malfunctions, both singular and multiple, which can occur during the complete mission profile that could lead to release outside the clad of the radioisotopic material contained therein; Provide estimates of occurrence probabilities associated with these various accidents; Evaluate the response of the LWRHU (or its components) to the resultant accident environments; and Associate the potential event history with test data or analysis to determine the potential interaction of the released radionuclides with the biosphere.

  18. Analysis of National Major Work Safety Accidents in China, 2003–2012

    PubMed Central

    YE, Yunfeng; ZHANG, Siheng; RAO, Jiaming; WANG, Haiqing; LI, Yang; WANG, Shengyong; DONG, Xiaomei

    2016-01-01

    Background: This study provides a national profile of major work safety accidents in China, which cause more than 10 fatalities per accident, intended to provide scientific basis for prevention measures and strategies to reduce major work safety accidents and deaths. Methods: Data from 2003–2012 Census of major work safety accidents were collected from State Administration of Work Safety System (SAWS). Published literature and statistical yearbook were also included to implement information. We analyzed the frequency of accidents and deaths, trend, geographic distribution and injury types. Additionally, we discussed the severity and urgency of emergency rescue by types of accidents. Results: A total of 877 major work safety accidents were reported, resulting in 16,795 deaths and 9,183 injuries. The numbers of accidents and deaths, mortality rate and incidence of major accidents have declined in recent years. The mortality rate and incidence was 0.71 and 1.20 per 106 populations in 2012, respectively. Transportation and mining contributed to the highest number of major accidents and deaths. Major aviation and railway accidents caused more casualties per incident, while collapse, machinery, electrical shock accidents and tailing dam accidents were the most severe situation that resulted in bigger proportion of death. Conclusion: Ten years’ major work safety accident data indicate that the frequency of accidents and number of eaths was declined and several safety concerns persist in some segments. PMID:27057515

  19. Radiation protection: an analysis of thyroid blocking. [Effectiveness of KI in reducing radioactive uptake following potential reactor accident

    SciTech Connect

    Aldrich, D C; Blond, R M

    1980-01-01

    An analysis was performed to provide guidance to policymakers concerning the effectiveness of potassium iodide (KI) as a thyroid blocking agent in potential reactor accident situations, the distance to which (or area within which) it should be distributed, and its relative effectiveness compared to other available protective measures. The analysis was performed using the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) consequence model. Four categories of accidents were addressed: gap activity release accident (GAP), GAP without containment isolation, core melt with a melt-through release, and core melt with an atmospheric release. Cost-benefit ratios (US $/thyroid nodule prevented) are given assuming that no other protective measures are taken. Uncertainties due to health effects parameters, accident probabilities, and costs are assessed. The effects of other potential protective measures, such as evacuation and sheltering, and the impact on children (critical population) are evaluated. Finally, risk-benefit considerations are briefly discussed.

  20. Progress in Addressing DNFSB Recommendation 2002-1 Issues: Improving Accident Analysis Software Applications

    SciTech Connect

    VINCENT, ANDREW

    2005-04-25

    Defense Nuclear Facilities Safety Board (DNFSB) Recommendation 2002-1 (''Quality Assurance for Safety-Related Software'') identified a number of quality assurance issues on the use of software in Department of Energy (DOE) facilities for analyzing hazards, and designing and operating controls to prevent or mitigate potential accidents. Over the last year, DOE has begun several processes and programs as part of the Implementation Plan commitments, and in particular, has made significant progress in addressing several sets of issues particularly important in the application of software for performing hazard and accident analysis. The work discussed here demonstrates that through these actions, Software Quality Assurance (SQA) guidance and software tools are available that can be used to improve resulting safety analysis. Specifically, five of the primary actions corresponding to the commitments made in the Implementation Plan to Recommendation 2002-1 are identified and discussed in this paper. Included are the web-based DOE SQA Knowledge Portal and the Central Registry, guidance and gap analysis reports, electronic bulletin board and discussion forum, and a DOE safety software guide. These SQA products can benefit DOE safety contractors in the development of hazard and accident analysis by precluding inappropriate software applications and utilizing best practices when incorporating software results to safety basis documentation. The improvement actions discussed here mark a beginning to establishing stronger, standard-compliant programs, practices, and processes in SQA among safety software users, managers, and reviewers throughout the DOE Complex. Additional effort is needed, however, particularly in: (1) processes to add new software applications to the DOE Safety Software Toolbox; (2) improving the effectiveness of software issue communication; and (3) promoting a safety software quality assurance culture.

  1. A Look at Aircraft Accident Analysis in the Early Days: Do Early 20th Century Accident Investigation Techniques Have Any Lessons for Today?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Holloway, C. M.; Johnson, C. W.

    2007-01-01

    In the early years of powered flight, the National Advisory Committee on Aeronautics in the United States produced three reports describing a method of analysis of aircraft accidents. The first report was published in 1928; the second, which was a revision of the first, was published in 1930; and the third, which was a revision and update of the second, was published in 1936. This paper describes the contents of these reports, and compares the method of analysis proposed therein to the methods used today.

  2. Light-Weight Radioisotope Heater Unit Safety Analysis Report (LWRHU-SAR). Volume II. Accident model document

    SciTech Connect

    Johnson, E.W.

    1985-10-01

    Purposes of this volume (AMD), are to: Identify all malfunctions, both singular and multiple, which can occur during the complete mission profile that could lead to release outside the clad of the radioisotopic material contained therein; provide estimates of occurrence probabilities associated with these various accidents; evaluate the response of the LWRHU (or its components) to the resultant accident environments; and associate the potential event history with test data or analysis to determine the potential interaction of the released radionuclides with the biosphere.

  3. Hypothetical accident condition thermal analysis and testing of a Type B drum package

    SciTech Connect

    Hensel, S.J.; Alstine, M.N. Van; Gromada, R.J.

    1995-07-01

    A thermophysical property model developed to analytically determine the thermal response of cane fiberboard when exposed to temperatures and heat fluxes associated with the 10 CFR 71 hypothetical accident condition (HAC) has been benchmarked against two Type B drum package fire test results. The model 9973 package was fire tested after a 30 ft. top down drop and puncture, and an undamaged model 9975 package containing a heater (21W) was fire tested to determine content heat source effects. Analysis results using a refined version of a previously developed HAC fiberboard model compared well against the test data from both the 9973 and 9975 packages.

  4. Effects of Violations of Data Set Assumptions When Using the Analysis of Variance and Covariance with Unequal Group Sizes.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnson, Colleen Cook; Rakow, Ernest A.

    This research explored the degree to which group sizes can differ before the robustness of analysis of variance (ANOVA) and analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) are jeopardized. Monte Carlo methodology was used, allowing for the experimental investigation of potential threats to robustness under conditions common to researchers in education. The…

  5. NASA Structural Analysis Report on the American Airlines Flight 587 Accident - Local Analysis of the Right Rear Lug

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Raju, Ivatury S; Glaessgen, Edward H.; Mason, Brian H; Krishnamurthy, Thiagarajan; Davila, Carlos G

    2005-01-01

    A detailed finite element analysis of the right rear lug of the American Airlines Flight 587 - Airbus A300-600R was performed as part of the National Transportation Safety Board s failure investigation of the accident that occurred on November 12, 2001. The loads experienced by the right rear lug are evaluated using global models of the vertical tail, local models near the right rear lug, and a global-local analysis procedure. The right rear lug was analyzed using two modeling approaches. In the first approach, solid-shell type modeling is used, and in the second approach, layered-shell type modeling is used. The solid-shell and the layered-shell modeling approaches were used in progressive failure analyses (PFA) to determine the load, mode, and location of failure in the right rear lug under loading representative of an Airbus certification test conducted in 1985 (the 1985-certification test). Both analyses were in excellent agreement with each other on the predicted failure loads, failure mode, and location of failure. The solid-shell type modeling was then used to analyze both a subcomponent test conducted by Airbus in 2003 (the 2003-subcomponent test) and the accident condition. Excellent agreement was observed between the analyses and the observed failures in both cases. From the analyses conducted and presented in this paper, the following conclusions were drawn. The moment, Mx (moment about the fuselage longitudinal axis), has significant effect on the failure load of the lugs. Higher absolute values of Mx give lower failure loads. The predicted load, mode, and location of the failure of the 1985-certification test, 2003-subcomponent test, and the accident condition are in very good agreement. This agreement suggests that the 1985-certification and 2003- subcomponent tests represent the accident condition accurately. The failure mode of the right rear lug for the 1985-certification test, 2003-subcomponent test, and the accident load case is identified as a

  6. Analysis of Occupational Accident Fatalities and Injuries Among Male Group in Iran Between 2008 and 2012

    PubMed Central

    Alizadeh, Seyed Shamseddin; Mortazavi, Seyed Bagher; Sepehri, Mohammad Mehdi

    2015-01-01

    Background: Because of occupational accidents, permanent disabilities and deaths occur and economic and workday losses emerge. Objectives: The purpose of the present study was to investigate the factors responsible for occupational accidents occurred in Iran. Patients and Methods: The current study analyzed 1464 occupational accidents recorded by the Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs’ offices in Iran during 2008 - 2012. At first, general understanding of accidents was obtained using descriptive statistics. Afterwards, the chi-square test and Cramer’s V statistic (Vc) were used to determine the association between factors influencing the type of injury as occupational accident outcomes. Results: There was no significant association between marital status and time of day with the type of injury. However, activity sector, cause of accident, victim’s education, age of victim and victim’s experience were significantly associated with the type of injury. Conclusions: Successful accident prevention relies largely on knowledge about the causes of accidents. In any accident control activity, particularly in occupational accidents, correctly identifying high-risk groups and factors influencing accidents is the key to successful interventions. Results of this study can cause to increase accident awareness and enable workplace’s management to select and prioritize problem areas and safety system weakness in workplaces. PMID:26568848

  7. A Content Analysis of News Media Coverage of the Accident at Three Mile Island.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stephens, Mitchell; Edison, Nadyne G.

    A study was conducted for the President's Commission on the Accident at Three Mile Island to analyze coverage of the accident by ten news organizations: two wire services, three commercial television networks, and five daily newspapers. Copies of all stories and transcripts of news programs during the first week of the accident were examined from…

  8. Development of integrated core disruptive accident analysis code for FBR - ASTERIA-FBR

    SciTech Connect

    Ishizu, T.; Endo, H.; Tatewaki, I.; Yamamoto, T.; Shirakawa, N.

    2012-07-01

    The evaluation of consequence at the severe accident is the most important as a safety licensing issue for the reactor core of liquid metal cooled fast breeder reactor (LMFBR), since the LMFBR core is not in an optimum condition from the viewpoint of reactivity. This characteristics might induce a super-prompt criticality due to the core geometry change during the core disruptive accident (CDA). The previous CDA analysis codes have been modeled in plural phases dependent on the mechanism driving a super-prompt criticality. Then, the following event is calculated by connecting different codes. This scheme, however, should introduce uncertainty and/or arbitrary to calculation results. To resolve the issues and obtain the consistent calculation results without arbitrary, JNES is developing the ASTERIA-FBR code for the purpose of providing the cross-check analysis code, which is another required scheme to confirm the validity of the evaluation results prepared by applicants, in the safety licensing procedure of the planned high performance core of Monju. ASTERIA-FBR consists of the three major calculation modules, CONCORD, dynamic-GMVP, and FEMAXI-FBR. CONCORD is a three-dimensional thermal-hydraulics calculation module with multi-phase, multi-component, and multi-velocity field model. Dynamic-GMVP is a space-time neutronics calculation module. FEMAXI-FBR calculates the fuel pellet deformation behavior and fuel pin failure behavior. This paper describes the needs of ASTERIA-FBR development, major module outlines, and the model validation status. (authors)

  9. Quantification method analysis of the relationship between occupant injury and environmental factors in traffic accidents.

    PubMed

    Ju, Yong Han; Sohn, So Young

    2011-01-01

    Injury analysis following a vehicle crash is one of the most important research areas. However, most injury analyses have focused on one-dimensional injury variables, such as the AIS (Abbreviated Injury Scale) or the IIS (Injury Impairment Scale), at a time in relation to various traffic accident factors. However, these studies cannot reflect the various injury phenomena that appear simultaneously. In this paper, we apply quantification method II to the NASS (National Automotive Sampling System) CDS (Crashworthiness Data System) to find the relationship between the categorical injury phenomena, such as the injury scale, injury position, and injury type, and the various traffic accident condition factors, such as speed, collision direction, vehicle type, and seat position. Our empirical analysis indicated the importance of safety devices, such as restraint equipment and airbags. In addition, we found that narrow impact, ejection, air bag deployment, and higher speed are associated with more severe than minor injury to the thigh, ankle, and leg in terms of dislocation, abrasion, or laceration. PMID:21094332

  10. Bayesian data analysis of severe fatal accident risk in the oil chain.

    PubMed

    Eckle, Petrissa; Burgherr, Peter

    2013-01-01

    We analyze the risk of severe fatal accidents causing five or more fatalities and for nine different activities covering the entire oil chain. Included are exploration and extraction, transport by different modes, refining and final end use in power plants, heating or gas stations. The risks are quantified separately for OECD and non-OECD countries and trends are calculated. Risk is analyzed by employing a Bayesian hierarchical model yielding analytical functions for both frequency (Poisson) and severity distributions (Generalized Pareto) as well as frequency trends. This approach addresses a key problem in risk estimation-namely the scarcity of data resulting in high uncertainties in particular for the risk of extreme events, where the risk is extrapolated beyond the historically most severe accidents. Bayesian data analysis allows the pooling of information from different data sets covering, for example, the different stages of the energy chains or different modes of transportation. In addition, it also inherently delivers a measure of uncertainty. This approach provides a framework, which comprehensively covers risk throughout the oil chain, allowing the allocation of risk in sustainability assessments. It also permits the progressive addition of new data to refine the risk estimates. Frequency, severity, and trends show substantial differences between the activities, emphasizing the need for detailed risk analysis. PMID:22642363

  11. Safety analysis report for the Galileo Mission. Volume 2, book 1: Accident model document

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    1988-12-01

    The Accident Model Document (AMD) is the second volume of the three volume Final Safety Analysis Report (FSAR) for the Galileo outer planetary space science mission. This mission employs Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generators (RTGs) as the prime electrical power sources for the spacecraft. Galileo will be launched into Earth orbit using the Space Shuttle and will use the Inertial Upper Stage (IUS) booster to place the spacecraft into an Earth escape trajectory. The RTG's employ silicon-germanium thermoelectric couples to produce electricity from the heat energy that results from the decay of the radioisotope fuel, Plutonium-238, used in the RTG heat source. The heat source configuration used in the RTG's is termed General Purpose Heat Source (GPHS), and the RTG's are designated GPHS-RTGs. The use of radioactive material in these missions necessitates evaluations of the radiological risks that may be encountered by launch complex personnel as well as by the Earth's general population resulting from postulated malfunctions or failures occurring in the mission operations. The FSAR presents the results of a rigorous safety assessment, including substantial analyses and testing, of the launch and deployment of the RTGs for the Galileo mission. This AMD is a summary of the potential accident and failure sequences which might result in fuel release, the analysis and testing methods employed, and the predicted source terms. Each source term consists of a quantity of fuel released, the location of release and the physical characteristics of the fuel released. Each source term has an associated probability of occurrence.

  12. Bayesian data analysis of severe fatal accident risk in the oil chain.

    PubMed

    Eckle, Petrissa; Burgherr, Peter

    2013-01-01

    We analyze the risk of severe fatal accidents causing five or more fatalities and for nine different activities covering the entire oil chain. Included are exploration and extraction, transport by different modes, refining and final end use in power plants, heating or gas stations. The risks are quantified separately for OECD and non-OECD countries and trends are calculated. Risk is analyzed by employing a Bayesian hierarchical model yielding analytical functions for both frequency (Poisson) and severity distributions (Generalized Pareto) as well as frequency trends. This approach addresses a key problem in risk estimation-namely the scarcity of data resulting in high uncertainties in particular for the risk of extreme events, where the risk is extrapolated beyond the historically most severe accidents. Bayesian data analysis allows the pooling of information from different data sets covering, for example, the different stages of the energy chains or different modes of transportation. In addition, it also inherently delivers a measure of uncertainty. This approach provides a framework, which comprehensively covers risk throughout the oil chain, allowing the allocation of risk in sustainability assessments. It also permits the progressive addition of new data to refine the risk estimates. Frequency, severity, and trends show substantial differences between the activities, emphasizing the need for detailed risk analysis.

  13. Process hazards analysis (PrHA) program, bridging accident analyses and operational safety

    SciTech Connect

    Richardson, J. A.; McKernan, S. A.; Vigil, M. J.

    2003-01-01

    Recently the Final Safety Analysis Report (FSAR) for the Plutonium Facility at Los Alamos National Laboratory, Technical Area 55 (TA-55) was revised and submitted to the US. Department of Energy (DOE). As a part of this effort, over seventy Process Hazards Analyses (PrHAs) were written and/or revised over the six years prior to the FSAR revision. TA-55 is a research, development, and production nuclear facility that primarily supports US. defense and space programs. Nuclear fuels and material research; material recovery, refining and analyses; and the casting, machining and fabrication of plutonium components are some of the activities conducted at TA-35. These operations involve a wide variety of industrial, chemical and nuclear hazards. Operational personnel along with safety analysts work as a team to prepare the PrHA. PrHAs describe the process; identi fy the hazards; and analyze hazards including determining hazard scenarios, their likelihood, and consequences. In addition, the interaction of the process to facility systems, structures and operational specific protective features are part of the PrHA. This information is rolled-up to determine bounding accidents and mitigating systems and structures. Further detailed accident analysis is performed for the bounding accidents and included in the FSAR. The FSAR is part of the Documented Safety Analysis (DSA) that defines the safety envelope for all facility operations in order to protect the worker, the public, and the environment. The DSA is in compliance with the US. Code of Federal Regulations, 10 CFR 830, Nuclear Safety Management and is approved by DOE. The DSA sets forth the bounding conditions necessary for the safe operation for the facility and is essentially a 'license to operate.' Safely of day-to-day operations is based on Hazard Control Plans (HCPs). Hazards are initially identified in the PrI-IA for the specific operation and act as input to the HCP. Specific protective features important to worker

  14. Narrative text analysis of accident reports with tractors, self-propelled harvesting machinery and materials handling machinery in Austrian agriculture from 2008 to 2010 - a comparison.

    PubMed

    Mayrhofer, Hannes; Quendler, Elisabeth; Boxberger, Josef

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this study was the identification of accident scenarios and causes by analysing existing accident reports of recognized agricultural occupational accidents with tractors, self-propelled harvesting machinery and materials handling machinery from 2008 to 2010. As a result of a literature-based evaluation of past accident analyses, the narrative text analysis was chosen as an appropriate method. A narrative analysis of the text fields of accident reports that farmers used to report accidents to insurers was conducted to obtain detailed information about the scenarios and causes of accidents. This narrative analysis of reports was made the first time and yielded first insights for identifying antecedents of accidents and potential opportunities for technical based intervention. A literature and internet search was done to discuss and confirm the findings. The narrative text analysis showed that in more than one third of the accidents with tractors and materials handling machinery the vehicle rolled or tipped over. The most relevant accident scenarios with harvesting machinery were being trapped and falling down. The direct comparison of the analysed machinery categories showed that more than 10% of the accidents in each category were caused by technical faults, slippery or muddy terrain and incorrect or inappropriate operation of the vehicle. Accidents with tractors, harvesting machinery and materials handling machinery showed similarities in terms of causes, circumstances and consequences. Certain technical and communicative measures for accident prevention could be used for all three machinery categories. Nevertheless, some individual solutions for accident prevention, which suit each specific machine type, would be necessary.

  15. Distributional Assumptions in Educational Assessments Analysis: Normal Distributions versus Generalized Beta Distribution in Modeling the Phenomenon of Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Campos, Jose Alejandro Gonzalez; Moraga, Paulina Saavedra; Del Pozo, Manuel Freire

    2013-01-01

    This paper introduces the generalized beta (GB) model as a new modeling tool in the educational assessment area and evaluation analysis, specifically. Unlike normal model, GB model allows us to capture some real characteristics of data and it is an important tool for understanding the phenomenon of learning. This paper develops a contrast with the…

  16. Visualization of Traffic Accidents

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wang, Jie; Shen, Yuzhong; Khattak, Asad

    2010-01-01

    Traffic accidents have tremendous impact on society. Annually approximately 6.4 million vehicle accidents are reported by police in the US and nearly half of them result in catastrophic injuries. Visualizations of traffic accidents using geographic information systems (GIS) greatly facilitate handling and analysis of traffic accidents in many aspects. Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI), Inc. is the world leader in GIS research and development. ArcGIS, a software package developed by ESRI, has the capabilities to display events associated with a road network, such as accident locations, and pavement quality. But when event locations related to a road network are processed, the existing algorithm used by ArcGIS does not utilize all the information related to the routes of the road network and produces erroneous visualization results of event locations. This software bug causes serious problems for applications in which accurate location information is critical for emergency responses, such as traffic accidents. This paper aims to address this problem and proposes an improved method that utilizes all relevant information of traffic accidents, namely, route number, direction, and mile post, and extracts correct event locations for accurate traffic accident visualization and analysis. The proposed method generates a new shape file for traffic accidents and displays them on top of the existing road network in ArcGIS. Visualization of traffic accidents along Hampton Roads Bridge Tunnel is included to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  17. Electrical equipment performance under severe accident conditions (BWR/Mark 1 plant analysis): Summary report

    SciTech Connect

    Bennett, P.R.; Kolaczkowski, A.M.; Medford, G.T.

    1986-09-01

    The purpose of the Performance Evaluation of Electrical Equipment during Severe Accident States Program is to determine the performance of electrical equipment, important to safety, under severe accident conditions. In FY85, a method was devised to identify important electrical equipment and the severe accident environments in which the equipment was likely to fail. This method was used to evaluate the equipment and severe accident environments for Browns Ferry Unit 1, a BWR/Mark I. Following this work, a test plan was written in FY86 to experimentally determine the performance of one selected component to two severe accident environments.

  18. Comparison of marker types and map assumptions using Markov chain Monte Carlo-based linkage analysis of COGA data

    PubMed Central

    Sieh, Weiva; Basu, Saonli; Fu, Audrey Q; Rothstein, Joseph H; Scheet, Paul A; Stewart, William CL; Sung, Yun J; Thompson, Elizabeth A; Wijsman, Ellen M

    2005-01-01

    We performed multipoint linkage analysis of the electrophysiological trait ECB21 on chromosome 4 in the full pedigrees provided by the Collaborative Study on the Genetics of Alcoholism (COGA). Three Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)-based approaches were applied to the provided and re-estimated genetic maps and to five different marker panels consisting of microsatellite (STRP) and/or SNP markers at various densities. We found evidence of linkage near the GABRB1 STRP using all methods, maps, and marker panels. Difficulties encountered with SNP panels included convergence problems and demanding computations. PMID:16451566

  19. Analysis of station blackout accidents for the Bellefonte pressurized water reactor

    SciTech Connect

    Gasser, R D; Bieniarz, P P; Tills, J L

    1986-09-01

    An analysis has been performed for the Bellefonte PWR Unit 1 to determine the containment loading and the radiological releases into the environment from a station blackout accident. A number of issues have been addressed in this analysis which include the effects of direct heating on containment loading, and the effects of fission product heating and natural convection on releases from the primary system. The results indicate that direct heating which involves more than about 50% of the core can fail the Bellefonte containment, but natural convection in the RCS may lead to overheating and failure of the primary system piping before core slump, thus, eliminating or mitigating direct heating. Releases from the primary system are significantly increased before vessel breach due to natural circulation and after vessel breach due to reevolution of retained fission products by fission product heating of RCS structures.

  20. Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Uncertainty assessment for internal dosimetry. Volume 2: Appendices

    SciTech Connect

    Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P.; Cooke, R.M.; Harrison, J.D.; Harper, F.T.; Hora, S.C.

    1998-04-01

    The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA internal dosimetry models. This volume contains appendices that include (1) a summary of the MACCS and COSYMA consequence codes, (2) the elicitation questionnaires and case structures, (3) the rationales and results for the panel on internal dosimetry, (4) short biographies of the experts, and (5) the aggregated results of their responses.

  1. DYNAMIC ANALYSIS OF HANFORD UNIRRADIATED FUEL PACKAGE SUBJECTED TO SEQUENTIAL LATERAL LOADS IN HYPOTHETICAL ACCIDENT CONDITIONS

    SciTech Connect

    Wu, T

    2008-04-30

    Large fuel casks present challenges when evaluating their performance in the Hypothetical Accident Conditions (HAC) specified in the Code of Federal Regulations Title 10 part 71 (10CFR71). Testing is often limited by cost, difficulty in preparing test units and the limited availability of facilities which can carry out such tests. In the past, many casks were evaluated without testing by using simplified analytical methods. This paper presents a numerical technique for evaluating the dynamic responses of large fuel casks subjected to sequential HAC loading. A nonlinear dynamic analysis was performed for a Hanford Unirradiated Fuel Package (HUFP) [1] to evaluate the cumulative damage after the hypothetical accident Conditions of a 30-foot lateral drop followed by a 40-inch lateral puncture as specified in 10CFR71. The structural integrity of the containment vessel is justified based on the analytical results in comparison with the stress criteria, specified in the ASME Code, Section III, Appendix F [2], for Level D service loads. The analyzed cumulative damages caused by the sequential loading of a 30-foot lateral drop and a 40-inch lateral puncture are compared with the package test data. The analytical results are in good agreement with the test results.

  2. Learning from the Piper Alpha accident: A postmortem analysis of technical and organizational factors

    SciTech Connect

    Pate-Cornell, M.E. )

    1993-04-01

    The accident that occurred on board the offshore platform Piper Alpha in July 1988 killed 167 people and cost billions of dollars in property damage. It was caused by a massive fire, which was not the result of an unpredictable act of God' but of an accumulation of errors and questionable decisions. Most of them were rooted in the organization, its structure, procedures, and culture. This paper analyzes the accident scenario using the risk analysis framework, determines which human decision and actions influenced the occurrence of the basic events, and then identifies the organizational roots of these decisions and actions. These organizational factors are generalizable to other industries and engineering systems. They include flaws in the design guidelines and design practices (e.g., tight physical couplings or insufficient redundancies), misguided priorities in the management of the tradeoff between productivity and safety, mistakes in the management of the personnel on board, and errors of judgement in the process by which financial pressures are applied on the production sector (i.e., the oil companies' definition of profit centers) resulting in deficiencies in inspection and maintenance operations. This analytical approach allows identification of risk management measures that go beyond the purely technical (e.g., add redundancies to a safety system) and also include improvements of management practices. 18 refs., 4 figs.

  3. Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Uncertainty assessment for deposited material and external doses. Volume 2: Appendices

    SciTech Connect

    Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P.; Cooke, R.M.; Boardman, J.; Jones, J.A.; Harper, F.T.; Young, M.L.; Hora, S.C.

    1997-12-01

    The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA deposited material and external dose models. This volume contains appendices that include (1) a summary of the MACCS and COSYMA consequence codes, (2) the elicitation questionnaires and case structures, (3) the rationales and results for the panel on deposited material and external doses, (4) short biographies of the experts, and (5) the aggregated results of their responses.

  4. Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Late health effects uncertain assessment. Volume 2: Appendices

    SciTech Connect

    Little, M.P.; Muirhead, C.R.; Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P.; Cooke, R.M.; Harper, F.T.; Hora, S.C.

    1997-12-01

    The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA late health effects models. This volume contains appendices that include (1) a summary of the MACCS and COSYMA consequence codes, (2) the elicitation questionnaires and case structures, (3) the rationales and results for the expert panel on late health effects, (4) short biographies of the experts, and (5) the aggregated results of their responses.

  5. Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Early health effects uncertainty assessment. Volume 2: Appendices

    SciTech Connect

    Haskin, F.E.; Harper, F.T.; Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P.

    1997-12-01

    The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA early health effects models. This volume contains appendices that include (1) a summary of the MACCS and COSYMA consequence codes, (2) the elicitation questionnaires and case structures, (3) the rationales and results for the panel on early health effects, (4) short biographies of the experts, and (5) the aggregated results of their responses.

  6. Risk assessment of maintenance operations: the analysis of performing task and accident mechanism.

    PubMed

    Carrillo-Castrillo, Jesús A; Rubio-Romero, Juan Carlos; Guadix, Jose; Onieva, Luis

    2015-01-01

    Maintenance operations cover a great number of occupations. Most small and medium-sized enterprises lack the appropriate information to conduct risk assessments of maintenance operations. The objective of this research is to provide a method based on the concepts of task and accident mechanisms for an initial risk assessment by taking into consideration the prevalence and severity of the maintenance accidents reported. Data were gathered from 11,190 reported accidents in maintenance operations in the manufacturing sector of Andalusia from 2003 to 2012. By using a semi-quantitative methodology, likelihood and severity were evaluated based on the actual distribution of accident mechanisms in each of the tasks. Accident mechanisms and tasks were identified by using those variables included in the European Statistics of Accidents at Work methodology. As main results, the estimated risk of the most frequent accident mechanisms identified for each of the analysed tasks is low and the only accident mechanisms with medium risk are accidents when lifting or pushing with physical stress on the musculoskeletal system in tasks involving carrying, and impacts against objects after slipping or stumbling for tasks involving movements. The prioritisation of public preventive actions for the accident mechanisms with a higher estimated risk is highly recommended.

  7. The Analysis of the Contribution of Human Factors to the In-Flight Loss of Control Accidents

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ancel, Ersin; Shih, Ann T.

    2012-01-01

    In-flight loss of control (LOC) is currently the leading cause of fatal accidents based on various commercial aircraft accident statistics. As the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) emerges, new contributing factors leading to LOC are anticipated. The NASA Aviation Safety Program (AvSP), along with other aviation agencies and communities are actively developing safety products to mitigate the LOC risk. This paper discusses the approach used to construct a generic integrated LOC accident framework (LOCAF) model based on a detailed review of LOC accidents over the past two decades. The LOCAF model is comprised of causal factors from the domain of human factors, aircraft system component failures, and atmospheric environment. The multiple interdependent causal factors are expressed in an Object-Oriented Bayesian belief network. In addition to predicting the likelihood of LOC accident occurrence, the system-level integrated LOCAF model is able to evaluate the impact of new safety technology products developed in AvSP. This provides valuable information to decision makers in strategizing NASA's aviation safety technology portfolio. The focus of this paper is on the analysis of human causal factors in the model, including the contributions from flight crew and maintenance workers. The Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS) taxonomy was used to develop human related causal factors. The preliminary results from the baseline LOCAF model are also presented.

  8. Learning Assumptions for Compositional Verification

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cobleigh, Jamieson M.; Giannakopoulou, Dimitra; Pasareanu, Corina; Clancy, Daniel (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    Compositional verification is a promising approach to addressing the state explosion problem associated with model checking. One compositional technique advocates proving properties of a system by checking properties of its components in an assume-guarantee style. However, the application of this technique is difficult because it involves non-trivial human input. This paper presents a novel framework for performing assume-guarantee reasoning in an incremental and fully automated fashion. To check a component against a property, our approach generates assumptions that the environment needs to satisfy for the property to hold. These assumptions are then discharged on the rest of the system. Assumptions are computed by a learning algorithm. They are initially approximate, but become gradually more precise by means of counterexamples obtained by model checking the component and its environment, alternately. This iterative process may at any stage conclude that the property is either true or false in the system. We have implemented our approach in the LTSA tool and applied it to the analysis of a NASA system.

  9. Accident safety analysis for 300 Area N Reactor Fuel Fabrication and Storage Facility

    SciTech Connect

    Johnson, D.J.; Brehm, J.R.

    1994-01-01

    The purpose of the accident safety analysis is to identify and analyze a range of credible events, their cause and consequences, and to provide technical justification for the conclusion that uranium billets, fuel assemblies, uranium scrap, and chips and fines drums can be safely stored in the 300 Area N Reactor Fuel Fabrication and Storage Facility, the contaminated equipment, High-Efficiency Air Particulate filters, ductwork, stacks, sewers and sumps can be cleaned (decontaminated) and/or removed, the new concretion process in the 304 Building will be able to operate, without undue risk to the public, employees, or the environment, and limited fuel handling and packaging associated with removal of stored uranium is acceptable.

  10. Chiropractic treatment of patients in motor vehicle accidents: a statistical analysis

    PubMed Central

    Dies, Stephen; Strapp, J Walter

    1992-01-01

    Motor vehicle accidents (MVA) are a major cause of spinal injuries treated by chiropractors. In this study the files of one chiropractor were reviewed retrospectively to generate a data base on the MVA cases (n = 149). The effect of age, sex, vehicle damage, symptoms and concurrent physiotherapy on the dependent variables of number of treatments, improvement and requirement for ongoing treatment was computed using an analysis of variance. Overall the average number of treatments given was 14.2. Patients who complained of headache or low back pain required more treatments than average. Improvement level was lowered by delay in seeking treatment, the presence of uncomplicated nausea and advancing age. Ongoing treatment to relieve persistent pain was required in 40.2 percent of the cases. None of the factors studied had a significant effect on this variable. The results of this study are comparable to those reported in the medical literature.

  11. Surgical videos for accident analysis, performance improvement, and complication prevention: time for a surgical black box?

    PubMed

    Gambadauro, Pietro; Magos, Adam

    2012-03-01

    Conventional audit of surgical records through review of surgical results provides useful knowledge but hardly helps identify the technical reasons lying behind specific outcomes or complications. Surgical teams not only need to know that a complication might happen but also how and when it is most likely to happen. Functional awareness is therefore needed to prevent complications, know how to deal with them, and improve overall surgical performance. The authors wish to argue that the systematic recording and reviewing of surgical videos, a "surgical black box," might improve surgical care, help prevent complications, and allow accident analysis. A possible strategy to test this hypothesis is presented and discussed. Recording and reviewing surgical interventions, apart from helping us achieve functional awareness and increasing the safety profile of our performance, allows us also to effectively share our experience with colleagues. The authors believe that those potential implications make this hypothesis worth testing.

  12. PTSD symptom severity and psychiatric comorbidity in recent motor vehicle accident victims: a latent class analysis.

    PubMed

    Hruska, Bryce; Irish, Leah A; Pacella, Maria L; Sledjeski, Eve M; Delahanty, Douglas L

    2014-10-01

    We conducted a latent class analysis (LCA) on 249 recent motor vehicle accident (MVA) victims to examine subgroups that differed in posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptom severity, current major depressive disorder and alcohol/other drug use disorders (MDD/AoDs), gender, and interpersonal trauma history 6-weeks post-MVA. A 4-class model best fit the data with a resilient class displaying asymptomatic PTSD symptom levels/low levels of comorbid disorders; a mild psychopathology class displaying mild PTSD symptom severity and current MDD; a moderate psychopathology class displaying severe PTSD symptom severity and current MDD/AoDs; and a severe psychopathology class displaying extreme PTSD symptom severity and current MDD. Classes also differed with respect to gender composition and history of interpersonal trauma experience. These findings may aid in the development of targeted interventions for recent MVA victims through the identification of subgroups distinguished by different patterns of psychiatric problems experienced 6-weeks post-MVA. PMID:25124501

  13. The Effects of Violation of Data Set Assumptions when Using the Oneway, Fixed Effects Analysis of Variance and the One Concomitant Analysis of Covariance Statistical Procedures.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnson, Colleen Cook

    The purpose of this study is to help define the precise nature and limits of the tolerable range in which a researcher may be relatively confident about the statistical validity of his or her research findings, focusing specifically on the statistical validity of results when violating the assumptions associated with the one-way, fixed-effects…

  14. Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis: Dispersion and deposition uncertainty assessment, appendices A and B

    SciTech Connect

    Harper, F.T.; Young, M.L.; Miller, L.A.; Hora, S.C.; Lui, C.H.; Goossens, L.H.J.; Cooke, R.M.; Paesler-Sauer, J.; Helton, J.C.

    1995-01-01

    The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, completed in 1990, estimate the risks presented by nuclear installations based on postulated frequencies and magnitudes of potential accidents. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the Commission of the European Communities (CEC) began a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The objective was to develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the input variables of the codes. Expert elicitation, developed independently, was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for the selected consequence parameters. The study was formulated jointly and was limited to the current code models and to physical quantities that could be measured in experiments. To validate the distributions generated for the wet deposition input variables, samples were taken from these distributions and propagated through the wet deposition code model along with the Gaussian plume model (GPM) implemented in the MACCS and COSYMA codes. Resulting distributions closely replicated the aggregated elicited wet deposition distributions. Project teams from the NRC and CEC cooperated successfully to develop and implement a unified process for the elaboration of uncertainty distributions on consequence code input parameters. Formal expert judgment elicitation proved valuable for synthesizing the best available information. Distributions on measurable atmospheric dispersion and deposition parameters were successfully elicited from experts involved in the many phenomenological areas of consequence analysis. This volume is the second of a three-volume document describing the project and contains two appendices describing the rationales for the dispersion and deposition data along with short biographies of the 16 experts who participated in the project.

  15. Final safety analysis report for the Galileo Mission: Volume 2: Book 1, Accident model document

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1988-12-15

    The Accident Model Document (AMD) is the second volume of the three volume Final Safety Analysis Report (FSAR) for the Galileo outer planetary space science mission. This mission employs Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generators (RTGs) as the prime electrical power sources for the spacecraft. Galileo will be launched into Earth orbit using the Space Shuttle and will use the Inertial Upper Stage (IUS) booster to place the spacecraft into an Earth escape trajectory. The RTG's employ silicon-germanium thermoelectric couples to produce electricity from the heat energy that results from the decay of the radioisotope fuel, Plutonium-238, used in the RTG heat source. The heat source configuration used in the RTG's is termed General Purpose Heat Source (GPHS), and the RTG's are designated GPHS-RTGs. The use of radioactive material in these missions necessitates evaluations of the radiological risks that may be encountered by launch complex personnel as well as by the Earth's general population resulting from postulated malfunctions or failures occurring in the mission operations. The FSAR presents the results of a rigorous safety assessment, including substantial analyses and testing, of the launch and deployment of the RTGs for the Galileo mission. This AMD is a summary of the potential accident and failure sequences which might result in fuel release, the analysis and testing methods employed, and the predicted source terms. Each source term consists of a quantity of fuel released, the location of release and the physical characteristics of the fuel released. Each source term has an associated probability of occurrence. 27 figs., 11 tabs.

  16. Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis: Dispersion and deposition uncertainty assessment, main report

    SciTech Connect

    Harper, F.T.; Young, M.L.; Miller, L.A.; Hora, S.C.; Lui, C.H.; Goossens, L.H.J.; Cooke, R.M.; Paesler-Sauer, J.; Helton, J.C.

    1995-01-01

    The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the risks presented by nuclear installations based on postulated frequencies and magnitudes of potential accidents. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the Commission of the European Communities (CEC) began a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of the joint effort was to develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the input variables of the codes. Expert elicitation was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for the selected consequence parameters. The study was formulated jointly and was limited to the current code models and to physical quantities that could be measured in experiments. Experts developed their distributions independently. To validate the distributions generated for the wet deposition input variables, samples were taken from these distributions and propagated through the wet deposition code model. Resulting distributions closely replicated the aggregated elicited wet deposition distributions. To validate the distributions generated for the dispersion code input variables, samples from the distributions and propagated through the Gaussian plume model (GPM) implemented in the MACCS and COSYMA codes. Project teams from the NRC and CEC cooperated successfully to develop and implement a unified process for the elaboration of uncertainty distributions on consequence code input parameters. Formal expert judgment elicitation proved valuable for synthesizing the best available information. Distributions on measurable atmospheric dispersion and deposition parameters were successfully elicited from experts involved in the many phenomenological areas of consequence analysis. This volume is the first of a three-volume document describing the project.

  17. System analysis with improved thermo-mechanical fuel rod models for modeling current and advanced LWR materials in accident scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Porter, Ian Edward

    A nuclear reactor systems code has the ability to model the system response in an accident scenario based on known initial conditions at the onset of the transient. However, there has been a tendency for these codes to lack the detailed thermo-mechanical fuel rod response models needed for accurate prediction of fuel rod failure. This proposed work will couple today's most widely used steady-state (FRAPCON) and transient (FRAPTRAN) fuel rod models with a systems code TRACE for best-estimate modeling of system response in accident scenarios such as a loss of coolant accident (LOCA). In doing so, code modifications will be made to model gamma heating in LWRs during steady-state and accident conditions and to improve fuel rod thermal/mechanical analysis by allowing axial nodalization of burnup-dependent phenomena such as swelling, cladding creep and oxidation. With the ability to model both burnup-dependent parameters and transient fuel rod response, a fuel dispersal study will be conducted using a hypothetical accident scenario under both PWR and BWR conditions to determine the amount of fuel dispersed under varying conditions. Due to the fuel fragmentation size and internal rod pressure both being dependent on burnup, this analysis will be conducted at beginning, middle and end of cycle to examine the effects that cycle time can play on fuel rod failure and dispersal. Current fuel rod and system codes used by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) are compilations of legacy codes with only commonly used light water reactor materials, Uranium Dioxide (UO2), Mixed Oxide (U/PuO 2) and zirconium alloys. However, the events at Fukushima Daiichi and Three Mile Island accident have shown the need for exploration into advanced materials possessing improved accident tolerance. This work looks to further modify the NRC codes to include silicon carbide (SiC), an advanced cladding material proposed by current DOE funded research on accident tolerant fuels (ATF). Several

  18. A comparative analysis of accident risks in fossil, hydro, and nuclear energy chains

    SciTech Connect

    Burgherr, P.; Hirschberg, S.

    2008-07-01

    This study presents a comparative assessment of severe accident risks in the energy sector, based on the historical experience of fossil (coal, oil, natural gas, and LPG (Liquefied Petroleum Gas)) and hydro chains contained in the comprehensive Energy-related Severe Accident Database (ENSAD), as well as Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) for the nuclear chain. Full energy chains were considered because accidents can take place at every stage of the chain. Comparative analyses for the years 1969-2000 included a total of 1870 severe ({>=} 5 fatalities) accidents, amounting to 81,258 fatalities. Although 79.1% of all accidents and 88.9% of associated fatalities occurred in less developed, non-OECD countries, industrialized OECD countries dominated insured losses (78.0%), reflecting their substantially higher insurance density and stricter safety regulations. Aggregated indicators and frequency-consequence (F-N) curves showed that energy-related accident risks in non-OECD countries are distinctly higher than in OECD countries. Hydropower in non-OECD countries and upstream stages within fossil energy chains are most accident-prone. Expected fatality rates are lowest for Western hydropower and nuclear power plants; however, the maximum credible consequences can be very large. Total economic damages due to severe accidents are substantial, but small when compared with natural disasters. Similarly, external costs associated with severe accidents are generally much smaller than monetized damages caused by air pollution.

  19. Three Dimensional Analysis of 3-Loop PWR RCCA Ejection Accident for High Burnup

    SciTech Connect

    Marciulescu, Cristian; Sung, Yixing; Beard, Charles L.

    2006-07-01

    The Rod Control Cluster Assembly (RCCA) ejection accident is a Condition IV design basis reactivity insertion event for Pressurized Water Reactors (PWR). The event is historically analyzed using a one-dimensional (1D) neutron kinetic code to meet the current licensing criteria for fuel rod burnup to 62,000 MWD/MTU. The Westinghouse USNRC-approved three-dimensional (3D) analysis methodology is based on the neutron kinetics version of the ANC code (SPNOVA) coupled with Westinghouse's version of the EPRI core thermal-hydraulic code VIPRE-01. The 3D methodology provides a more realistic yet conservative analysis approach to meet anticipated reduction in the licensing fuel enthalpy rise limit for high burnup fuel. A rod ejection analysis using the 3D methodology was recently performed for a Westinghouse 3-loop PWR at an up-rated core power of 3151 MWt with reload cores that allow large flexibility in assembly shuffling and a fuel hot rod burnup to 75,000 MWD/MTU. The analysis considered high enrichment fuel assemblies at the control rod locations as well as bounding rodded depletions in the end of life, zero power and full power conditions. The analysis results demonstrated that the peak fuel enthalpy rise is less than 100 cal/g for the transient initiated at the hot zero power condition. The maximum fuel enthalpy is less than 200 cal/g for the transient initiated from the full power condition. (authors)

  20. Defense In-Depth Accident Analysis Evaluation of Tritium Facility Bldgs. 232-H, 233-H, and 234-H

    SciTech Connect

    Blanchard, A.

    1999-05-10

    'The primary purpose of this report is to document a Defense-in-Depth (DID) accident analysis evaluation for Department of Energy (DOE) Savannah River Site (SRS) Tritium Facility Buildings 232-H, 233-H, and 234-H. The purpose of a DID evaluation is to provide a more realistic view of facility radiological risks to the offsite public than the bounding deterministic analysis documented in the Safety Analysis Report, which credits only Safety Class items in the offsite dose evaluation.'

  1. Testing Our Fundamental Assumptions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kohler, Susanna

    2016-06-01

    Science is all about testing the things we take for granted including some of the most fundamental aspects of how we understand our universe. Is the speed of light in a vacuum the same for all photons regardless of their energy? Is the rest mass of a photon actually zero? A series of recent studies explore the possibility of using transient astrophysical sources for tests!Explaining Different Arrival TimesArtists illustration of a gamma-ray burst, another extragalactic transient, in a star-forming region. [NASA/Swift/Mary Pat Hrybyk-Keith and John Jones]Suppose you observe a distant transient astrophysical source like a gamma-ray burst, or a flare from an active nucleus and two photons of different energies arrive at your telescope at different times. This difference in arrival times could be due to several different factors, depending on how deeply you want to question some of our fundamental assumptions about physics:Intrinsic delayThe photons may simply have been emitted at two different times by the astrophysical source.Delay due to Lorentz invariance violationPerhaps the assumption that all massless particles (even two photons with different energies) move at the exact same velocity in a vacuum is incorrect.Special-relativistic delayMaybe there is a universal speed for massless particles, but the assumption that photons have zero rest mass is wrong. This, too, would cause photon velocities to be energy-dependent.Delay due to gravitational potentialPerhaps our understanding of the gravitational potential that the photons experience as they travel is incorrect, also causing different flight times for photons of different energies. This would mean that Einsteins equivalence principle, a fundamental tenet of general relativity (GR), is incorrect.If we now turn this problem around, then by measuring the arrival time delay between photons of different energies from various astrophysical sources the further away, the better we can provide constraints on these

  2. Testing Our Fundamental Assumptions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kohler, Susanna

    2016-06-01

    Science is all about testing the things we take for granted including some of the most fundamental aspects of how we understand our universe. Is the speed of light in a vacuum the same for all photons regardless of their energy? Is the rest mass of a photon actually zero? A series of recent studies explore the possibility of using transient astrophysical sources for tests!Explaining Different Arrival TimesArtists illustration of a gamma-ray burst, another extragalactic transient, in a star-forming region. [NASA/Swift/Mary Pat Hrybyk-Keith and John Jones]Suppose you observe a distant transient astrophysical source like a gamma-ray burst, or a flare from an active nucleus and two photons of different energies arrive at your telescope at different times. This difference in arrival times could be due to several different factors, depending on how deeply you want to question some of our fundamental assumptions about physics:Intrinsic delayThe photons may simply have been emitted at two different times by the astrophysical source.Delay due to Lorentz invariance violationPerhaps the assumption that all massless particles (even two photons with different energies) move at the exact same velocity in a vacuum is incorrect.Special-relativistic delayMaybe there is a universal speed for massless particles, but the assumption that photons have zero rest mass is wrong. This, too, would cause photon velocities to be energy-dependent.Delay due to gravitational potentialPerhaps our understanding of the gravitational potential that the photons experience as they travel is incorrect, also causing different flight times for photons of different energies. This would mean that Einsteins equivalence principle, a fundamental tenet of general relativity (GR), is incorrect.If we now turn this problem around, then by measuring the arrival time delay between photons of different energies from various astrophysical sources the further away, the better we can provide constraints on these

  3. [Analysis of accidents for magnetically induced displacement of the large ferromagnetic material in magnetic resonance systems].

    PubMed

    Yamatani, Yuya; Doi, Tsukasa; Ueyama, Tsuyoshi; Nishiki, Shigeo; Ogura, Akio; Kawamitsu, Hideaki; Tsuchihashi, Toshio; Okuaki, Tomoyuki; Matsuda, Tsuyoshi

    2013-01-01

    To improve magnetic resonance (MR) safety, we surveyed the accidents caused by large ferromagnetic materials brought into MR systems accidentally. We sent a questionnaire to 700 Japanese medical institutions and received 405 valid responses (58%). A total of 97 accidents in 77 institutions were observed and we analyzed them regarding incidental rate, the detail situation and environmental factors. The mean accident rate of each institute was 0.7/100,000 examinations, which was widely distributed (0-25.6/100,000) depending on the institute. In this survey, relatively small institutes with less than 500 beds tend to have these accidents more frequently (p<0.01). The institutes in which daily MR examination counts are more than 10 patients have fewer accidents than those with less than 10 daily examinations. The institutes with 6-10 MR examinations daily have significantly more accidents than that with more than 10 daily MR examinations (p<0.01). The main mental factors of the accidents were considered to be "prejudice" and "carelessness" but some advocate "ignorance." Though we could not find significant reduction in the institutes that have lectures and training for MR safety, we should continue lectures and training for MR safety to reduce accidents due to "ignorance."

  4. Emergency drinking water treatment during source water pollution accidents in China: origin analysis, framework and technologies.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Xiao-Jian; Chen, Chao; Lin, Peng-Fei; Hou, Ai-Xin; Niu, Zhang-Bin; Wang, Jun

    2011-01-01

    China has suffered frequent source water contamination accidents in the past decade, which has resulted in severe consequences to the water supply of millions of residents. The origins of typical cases of contamination are discussed in this paper as well as the emergency response to these accidents. In general, excessive pursuit of rapid industrialization and the unreasonable location of factories are responsible for the increasing frequency of accidental pollution events. Moreover, insufficient attention to environmental protection and rudimentary emergency response capability has exacerbated the consequences of such accidents. These environmental accidents triggered or accelerated the promulgation of stricter environmental protection policy and the shift from economic development mode to a more sustainable direction, which should be regarded as the turning point of environmental protection in China. To guarantee water security, China is trying to establish a rapid and effective emergency response framework, build up the capability of early accident detection, and develop efficient technologies to remove contaminants from water.

  5. TRACE/PARCS Core Modeling of a BWR/5 for Accident Analysis of ATWS Events

    SciTech Connect

    Cuadra A.; Baek J.; Cheng, L.; Aronson, A.; Diamond, D.; Yarsky, P.

    2013-11-10

    The TRACE/PARCS computational package [1, 2] isdesigned to be applicable to the analysis of light water reactor operational transients and accidents where the coupling between the neutron kinetics (PARCS) and the thermal-hydraulics and thermal-mechanics (TRACE) is important. TRACE/PARCS has been assessed for itsapplicability to anticipated transients without scram(ATWS) [3]. The challenge, addressed in this study, is to develop a sufficiently rigorous input model that would be acceptable for use in ATWS analysis. Two types of ATWS events were of interest, a turbine trip and a closure of main steam isolation valves (MSIVs). In the first type, initiated by turbine trip, the concern is that the core will become unstable and large power oscillations will occur. In the second type,initiated by MSIV closure,, the concern is the amount of energy being placed into containment and the resulting emergency depressurization. Two separate TRACE/PARCS models of a BWR/5 were developed to analyze these ATWS events at MELLLA+ (maximum extended load line limit plus)operating conditions. One model [4] was used for analysis of ATWS events leading to instability (ATWS-I);the other [5] for ATWS events leading to emergency depressurization (ATWS-ED). Both models included a large portion of the nuclear steam supply system and controls, and a detailed core model, presented henceforth.

  6. Analysis of fission product revaporization in a BWR Reactor Coolant System during a station blackout accident

    SciTech Connect

    Yang, J.W.; Schmidt, E.; Cazzoli, E.; Khatib-Rahbar, M.

    1988-01-01

    This paper presents an analysis of fission product revaporization from the Reactor Coolant System (RCS) following the Reactor Pressure Vessel (RPV) failure. The station blackout accident in a BWR Mark I Power Plant was considered. The TRAPMELT3 models for vaporization, chemisorption, and the decay heating of RCS structures and gases were used and extended beyond the RPV failure in the analysis. The RCS flow models based on the density-difference or pressure-difference between the RCS and containment pedestal region were developed to estimate the RCS outflow which carries the revaporized fission product to the containment. A computer code called REVAP was developed for the analysis. The REVAP code was incorporated with the MARCH, TRAPMELT3 and NAUA codes from the Source Term Code Package (STCP) to estimate the impact of revaporization on environmental release. The results show that the thermal-hydraulic conditions between the RCS and the pedestal region are important factors in determining the magnitude of revaporization and subsequent release of the volatile fission product into the environment. 6 refs., 8 figs.

  7. Investigation of Key Factors for Accident Severity at Railroad Grade Crossings by Using a Logit Model

    PubMed Central

    Hu, Shou-Ren; Li, Chin-Shang; Lee, Chi-Kang

    2009-01-01

    Although several studies have used logit or probit models and their variants to fit data of accident severity on roadway segments, few have investigated accident severity at a railroad grade crossing (RGC). Compared to accident risk analysis in terms of accident frequency and severity of a highway system, investigation of the factors contributing to traffic accidents at an RGC may be more complicated because of additional highway–railway interactions. Because the proportional odds assumption was violated while fitting cumulative logit modeled by the proportional odds models with stepwise variable selection to ordinal accident severity data collected at 592 RGCs in Taiwan, as suggested by Strokes et al. (2000, p. 249) a generalized logit model with stepwise variable selection was used instead to identify explanatory variables (factors or covariates) that were significantly associated with the severity of collisions. Hence, the fitted model was used to predict the level of accident severity, given a set of values in the explanatory variables. Number of daily trains, highway separation, number of daily trucks, obstacle detection device, and approaching crossing markings significantly affected levels of accident severity at an RGC (p-value = 0.0009, 0.0008, 0.0112, 0.0017, and 0.0003, respectively). Finally, marginal effect analysis on the number of daily trains and law enforcement camera was conducted to evaluate the effect of the number of daily trains and presence of a law enforcement camera on the potential accident severity. PMID:20161414

  8. Stress inversion assumptions review

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lejri, Mostfa; Maerten, Frantz; Maerten, Laurent; Joonnenkindt, Jean Pierre; Soliva, Roger

    2014-05-01

    Wallace (1951) and Bott (1959) were the first to introduce the idea that the slip on each fault surface has the same direction and sense as the maximum shear stress resolved on that surface. This hypothesis are based on the assumptions that (i) faults are planar, (ii) blocks are rigid, (iii) neither stress perturbations nor block rotations along fault surfaces occur and (iv), the applied stress state is uniform. However, this simplified hypothesis is questionable since complex fault geometries, heterogeneous fault slip directions, evidences of stress perturbations in microstructures and block rotations along fault surfaces were reported in the literature. Earlier numerical geomechanical models confirmed that the striation lines (slip vectors) are not necessarily parallel to the maximum shear stress vector but is consistent with local stress perturbations. This leads us to ask as to what extent the Wallace and Bott simplifications are reliable as a basis hypothesis for stress inversion. In this presentation, a geomechanical multi-parametric study using 3D boundary element method (BEM), covering (i) fault geometries such as intersected faults or corrugated fault surfaces, (ii) the full range of Andersonian state of stress, (iii) fault friction, (iv) half space effect and (v), rock properties, is performed in order to understand the effect of each parameter on the angular misfit between geomechanical slip vectors and the resolved shear stresses. It is shown that significant angular misfits can be found under specific configurations and therefore we conclude that stress inversions based on the Wallace-Bott hypothesis might sometime give results that should be interpreted with care. Major observations are that (i) applying optimum tectonic stress conditions on complex fault geometries can increase the angular misfit, (ii) elastic material properties, combined to half-space effect, can enhance this effect, and (iii) an increase of the sliding friction leads to a

  9. Differences in rural and urban driver-injury severities in accidents involving large-trucks: an exploratory analysis.

    PubMed

    Khorashadi, Ahmad; Niemeier, Debbie; Shankar, Venky; Mannering, Fred

    2005-09-01

    This study explores the differences between urban and rural driver injuries (both passenger-vehicle and large-truck driver injuries) in accidents that involve large trucks (in excess of 10,000 pounds). Using 4 years of California accident data, and considering four driver-injury severity categories (no injury, complaint of pain, visible injury, and severe/fatal injury), a multinomial logit analysis of the data was conducted. Significant differences with respect to various risk factors including driver, vehicle, environmental, road geometry and traffic characteristics were found to exist between urban and rural models. For example, in rural accidents involving tractor-trailer combinations, the probability of drivers' injuries being severe/fatal increased about 26% relative to accidents involving single-unit trucks. In urban areas, this same probability increased nearly 700%. In accidents where alcohol or drug use was identified as being the primary cause of the accident, the probability of severe/fatal injury increased roughly 250% percent in rural areas and nearly 800% in urban areas. While many of the same variables were found to be significant in both rural and urban models (although often with quite different impact), there were 13 variables that significantly influenced driver-injury severity in rural but not urban areas, and 17 variables that significantly influenced driver-injury severity in urban but not rural areas. We speculate that the significant differences between rural and urban injury severities may be at least partially attributable to the different perceptual, cognitive and response demands placed on drivers in rural versus urban areas.

  10. Analysis of Surface Water Pollution Accidents in China: Characteristics and Lessons for Risk Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yao, Hong; Zhang, Tongzhu; Liu, Bo; Lu, Feng; Fang, Shurong; You, Zhen

    2016-04-01

    Understanding historical accidents is important for accident prevention and risk mitigation; however, there are no public databases of pollution accidents in China, and no detailed information regarding such incidents is readily available. Thus, 653 representative cases of surface water pollution accidents in China were identified and described as a function of time, location, materials involved, origin, and causes. The severity and other features of the accidents, frequency and quantities of chemicals involved, frequency and number of people poisoned, frequency and number of people affected, frequency and time for which pollution lasted, and frequency and length of pollution zone were effectively used to value and estimate the accumulated probabilities. The probabilities of occurrences of various types based on origin and causes were also summarized based on these observations. The following conclusions can be drawn from these analyses: (1) There was a high proportion of accidents involving multi-district boundary regions and drinking water crises, indicating that more attention should be paid to environmental risk prevention and the mitigation of such incidents. (2) A high proportion of accidents originated from small-sized chemical plants, indicating that these types of enterprises should be considered during policy making. (3) The most common cause (49.8 % of the total) was intentional acts (illegal discharge); accordingly, efforts to increase environmental consciousness in China should be enhanced.

  11. Analysis of Surface Water Pollution Accidents in China: Characteristics and Lessons for Risk Management.

    PubMed

    Yao, Hong; Zhang, Tongzhu; Liu, Bo; Lu, Feng; Fang, Shurong; You, Zhen

    2016-04-01

    Understanding historical accidents is important for accident prevention and risk mitigation; however, there are no public databases of pollution accidents in China, and no detailed information regarding such incidents is readily available. Thus, 653 representative cases of surface water pollution accidents in China were identified and described as a function of time, location, materials involved, origin, and causes. The severity and other features of the accidents, frequency and quantities of chemicals involved, frequency and number of people poisoned, frequency and number of people affected, frequency and time for which pollution lasted, and frequency and length of pollution zone were effectively used to value and estimate the accumulated probabilities. The probabilities of occurrences of various types based on origin and causes were also summarized based on these observations. The following conclusions can be drawn from these analyses: (1) There was a high proportion of accidents involving multi-district boundary regions and drinking water crises, indicating that more attention should be paid to environmental risk prevention and the mitigation of such incidents. (2) A high proportion of accidents originated from small-sized chemical plants, indicating that these types of enterprises should be considered during policy making. (3) The most common cause (49.8% of the total) was intentional acts (illegal discharge); accordingly, efforts to increase environmental consciousness in China should be enhanced.

  12. The role of mitochondrial proteomic analysis in radiological accidents and terrorism.

    PubMed

    Maguire, David; Zhang, Bingrong; Zhang, Amy; Zhang, Lurong; Okunieff, Paul

    2013-01-01

    In the wake of the 9/11 terrorist attacks and the recent Level 7 nuclear event at the Fukushima Daiichi plant, there has been heightened awareness of the possibility of radiological terrorism and accidents and the need for techniques to estimate radiation levels after such events. A number of approaches to monitoring radiation using biological markers have been published, including physical techniques, cytogenetic approaches, and direct, DNA-analysis approaches. Each approach has the potential to provide information that may be applied to the triage of an exposed population, but problems with development and application of devices or lengthy analyses limit their potential for widespread application. We present a post-irradiation observation with the potential for development into a rapid point-of-care device. Using simple mitochondrial proteomic analysis, we investigated irradiated and nonirradiated murine mitochondria and identified a protein mobility shift occurring at 2-3 Gy. We discuss the implications of this finding both in terms of possible mechanisms and potential applications in bio-radiation monitoring. PMID:22879026

  13. Overview of the Aerothermodynamics Analysis Conducted in Support of the STS-107 Accident Investigation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Campbell, Charles H.

    2004-01-01

    A graphic presentation of the aerothermodynamics analysis conducted in support of the STS-107 accident investigation. Investigation efforts were conducted as part of an integrated AATS team (Aero, Aerothermal, Thermal, Stress) directed by OVEWG. Graphics presented are: STS-107 Entry trajectory and timeline (1st off-nominal event to Post-LOS); Indications from OI telemetry data; Aero/aerothermo/thermal analysis process; Selected STS-107 side fuselage/OMS pod off-nominal temperatures; Leading edge structural subsystem; Relevant forensics evidence; External aerothermal environments; STS-107 Pre-entry EOM3 heating profile; Surface heating and temperatures; Orbiter wing leading edge damage survey; Internal aerothermal environments; Orbiter wing CAD model; Aerodynamic flight reconstruction; Chronology of aerodynamic/aerothermoydynamic contributions; Acreage TPS tile damage; Larger OML perturbations; Missing RCC panel(s); Localized damage to RCC panel/missing T-seal; RCC breach with flow ingestion; and Aero-aerothermal closure. NAIT served as the interface between the CAIB and NASA investigation teams; and CAIB requests for study were addressed.

  14. Homicide or accident off the coast of Florida: trauma analysis of mutilated human remains.

    PubMed

    Stubblefield, P R

    1999-07-01

    In the many years Dr. William R. Maples served as a forensic anthropologist, he saw diverse sources of trauma presented in the victims of violent crime, accident and suicide in the state of Florida. In 1996 the District 18 Medical Examiner's Office of Florida requested the assistance of Dr. Maples in the analysis of human remains recovered by the U.S. Coast Guard. The deceased was in an advanced state of decomposition characterized by skin slippage and discoloration. The torso bore multiple lacerations, including nearly parallel lacerations in the skin of the back. Specimens were carefully macerated and the fractures reconstructed. The skeletal trauma was caused by a device capable of delivering robust cuts and blunt trauma in linear paths, as is consistent with propeller trauma. Unusual in this case were blows to the ventral and dorsal surfaces of the body. Based on the anthropological analysis and interviews with the family of the deceased, the F.B.I. proceeded with the case as a homicide investigation.

  15. Development of NASA's Accident Precursor Analysis Process Through Application on the Space Shuttle Orbiter

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Maggio, Gaspare; Groen, Frank; Hamlin, Teri; Youngblood, Robert

    2010-01-01

    Accident Precursor Analysis (APA) serves as the bridge between existing risk modeling activities, which are often based on historical or generic failure statistics, and system anomalies, which provide crucial information about the failure mechanisms that are actually operative in the system. APA docs more than simply track experience: it systematically evaluates experience, looking for under-appreciated risks that may warrant changes to design or operational practice. This paper presents the pilot application of the NASA APA process to Space Shuttle Orbiter systems. In this effort, the working sessions conducted at Johnson Space Center (JSC) piloted the APA process developed by Information Systems Laboratories (ISL) over the last two years under the auspices of NASA's Office of Safety & Mission Assurance, with the assistance of the Safety & Mission Assurance (S&MA) Shuttle & Exploration Analysis Branch. This process is built around facilitated working sessions involving diverse system experts. One important aspect of this particular APA process is its focus on understanding the physical mechanism responsible for an operational anomaly, followed by evaluation of the risk significance of the observed anomaly as well as consideration of generalizations of the underlying mechanism to other contexts. Model completeness will probably always be an issue, but this process tries to leverage operating experience to the extent possible in order to address completeness issues before a catastrophe occurs.

  16. The role of mitochondrial proteomic analysis in radiological accidents and terrorism.

    PubMed

    Maguire, David; Zhang, Bingrong; Zhang, Amy; Zhang, Lurong; Okunieff, Paul

    2013-01-01

    In the wake of the 9/11 terrorist attacks and the recent Level 7 nuclear event at the Fukushima Daiichi plant, there has been heightened awareness of the possibility of radiological terrorism and accidents and the need for techniques to estimate radiation levels after such events. A number of approaches to monitoring radiation using biological markers have been published, including physical techniques, cytogenetic approaches, and direct, DNA-analysis approaches. Each approach has the potential to provide information that may be applied to the triage of an exposed population, but problems with development and application of devices or lengthy analyses limit their potential for widespread application. We present a post-irradiation observation with the potential for development into a rapid point-of-care device. Using simple mitochondrial proteomic analysis, we investigated irradiated and nonirradiated murine mitochondria and identified a protein mobility shift occurring at 2-3 Gy. We discuss the implications of this finding both in terms of possible mechanisms and potential applications in bio-radiation monitoring.

  17. The effect of gamma-ray transport on afterheat calculations for accident analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Reyes, S.; Latkowski, J.F.; Sanz, J.

    2000-05-01

    Radioactive afterheat is an important source term for the release of radionuclides in fusion systems under accident conditions. Heat transfer calculations are used to determine time-temperature histories in regions of interest, but the true source term needs to be the effective afterheat, which considers the transport of penetrating gamma rays. Without consideration of photon transport, accident temperatures may be overestimated in others. The importance of this effect is demonstrated for a simple, one-dimensional problem. The significance of this effect depends strongly on the accident scenario being analyzed.

  18. Transient analysis for thermal margin with COASISO during a severe accident

    SciTech Connect

    Kim, Chan S.; Chu, Ho S.; Suh, Kune Y.; Park, Goon C.; Lee, Un C.; Yoon, Ho J.

    2002-07-01

    As an IVR-EVC (in-vessel retention through external vessel cooling) design concept, external cooling of the reactor vessel was suggested to protect the lower head from being overheated due to relocated material from the core during a severe accident. The COASISO (Corium Attack Syndrome Immunization Structure Outside the vessel) adopts an external vessel cooling strategy of flooding the reactor vessel inside the thermal insulator. Its advantage is the quick response time so that the initial heat removal mechanism of the EVC is nucleate boiling from the downward-facing lower head. The efficiency of the COASISO may be estimated by the thermal margin defined as the ratio of the actual heat flux from the reactor vessel to the critical heat flux (CHF). In this study the thermal margin for the large power reactor as the APR1400 (Advanced Power Reactor 1400 MWe) was determined by means of transient analysis for the local condition of the coolant and temperature distributions within the reactor vessel. The heat split fraction in the oxide pool and the metal layer focusing effect were considered during calculation of the angular thermal load at the inner wall of the lower head. The temperature distributions in the reactor vessel resulted in the actual heat flux on the outer wall. The local quality was obtained by solving the simplified transient energy equation. The unheated section of the reactor vessel decreases the thermal margin by mean of the two-dimensional conduction heat transfer. The peak temperature of the reactor vessel was estimated in the film boiling region as the thermal margin was equal to unity. Sensitivity analyses were performed for the time of corium relocation after the reactor trip, the coolant flow rate, and the initial subcooled condition of the coolant. There is no vessel failure predicted at the worst EVC condition when the stratification is not taken into account between the metal layer and the oxidic pool. The present predictive tool may be

  19. Analysis of offsite Emergency Planning Zones (EPZs) for the Rocky Flats Plant. Phase 3, Sitewide spectrum-of-accidents and bounding EPZ analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Petrocchi, A.J.; Zimmerman, G.A.

    1994-03-14

    During Phase 3 of the EPZ project, a sitewide analysis will be performed applying a spectrum-of-accidents approach to both radiological and nonradiological hazardous materials release scenarios. This analysis will include the MCA but will be wider in scope and will produce options for the State of Colorado for establishing a bounding EPZ that is intended to more comprehensively update the interim, preliminary EPZ developed in Phase 2. EG&G will propose use of a hazards assessment methodology that is consistent with the DOE Emergency Management Guide for Hazards Assessments and other methods required by DOE orders. This will include hazards, accident, safety, and risk analyses. Using this methodology, EG&G will develop technical analyses for a spectrum of accidents. The analyses will show the potential effects from the spectrum of accidents on the offsite population together with identification of offsite vulnerable zones and areas of concern. These analyses will incorporate state-of-the-art technology for accident analysis, atmospheric plume dispersion modeling, consequence analysis, and the application of these evaluations to the general public population at risk. The analyses will treat both radiological and nonradiological hazardous materials and mixtures of both released accidentally to the atmosphere. DOE/RFO will submit these results to the State of Colorado for the State`s use in determining offsite emergency planning zones for the Rocky Flats Plant. In addition, the results will be used for internal Rocky Flats Plant emergency planning.

  20. The Role of Materials Degradation and Analysis in the Space Shuttle Columbia Accident Investigation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    McDanels, Steven J.

    2006-01-01

    The efforts following the loss of the Space Shuttle Columbia included debris recovery, reconstruction, and analysis. The debris was subjected to myriad quantitative and semiquantitative chemical analysis techniques, ranging from examination via the scanning electron microscope (SEM) with energy dispersive spectrometer (EDS) to X-Ray diffraction (XRD) and electron probe micro-analysis (EPMA). The results from the work with the debris helped the investigators determine the location where a breach likely occurred in the leading edge of the left wing during lift off of the Orbiter from the Kennedy Space Center. Likewise, the information evidenced by the debris was also crucial in ascertaining the path of impinging plasma flow once it had breached the wing. After the Columbia Accident Investigation Board (CAIB) issued its findings, the major portion of the investigation was concluded. However, additional work remained to be done on many pieces of debris from portions of the Orbiter which were not directly related to the initial impact during ascent. This subsequent work was not only performed in the laboratory, but was also performed with portable equipment, including examination via portable X-Ray fluorescence (XRF) and Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR). Likewise, acetate and silicon-rubber replicas of various fracture surfaces were obtained for later macroscopic and fractographic examination. This paper will detail the efforts and findings from the initial investigation, as well as present results obtained by the later examination and analysis of debris from the Orbiter including its windows, bulkhead structures, and other components which had not been examined during the primary investigation.

  1. Lower head creep rupture failure analysis associated with alternative accident sequences of the Three Mile Island Unit 2

    SciTech Connect

    Sang Lung, Chan

    2004-07-01

    The objective of this lower head creep rupture analysis is to assess the current version of MELCOR 1.8.5-RG against SCDAP/RELAP5 MOD 3.3kz. The purpose of this assessment is to investigate the current MELCOR in-vessel core damage progression phenomena including the model for the formation of a molten pool. The model for stratified molten pool natural heat transfer will be included in the next MELCOR release. Presently, MELCOR excludes the gap heat-transfer model for the cooling associated with the narrow gap between the debris and the lower head vessel wall. All these phenomenological models are already treated in SCDAP/RELAP5 using the COUPLE code to model the heat transfer of the relocated debris with the lower head based on a two-dimensional finite-element-method. The assessment should determine if current MELCOR capabilities adequately cover core degradation phenomena appropriate for the consolidated MELCOR code. Inclusion of these features should bring MELCOR much closer to a state of parity with SCDAP/RELAP5 and is a currently underway element in the MELCOR code consolidation effort. This assessment deals with the following analysis of the Three Mile Island Unit 2 (TMI-2) alternative accident sequences. The TMI-2 alternative accident sequence-1 includes the continuation of the base case of the TMI-2 accident with the Reactor Coolant Pumps (RCP) tripped, and the High Pressure Injection System (HPIS) throttled after approximately 6000 s accident time, while in the TMI-2 alternative accident sequence-2, the reactor coolant pumps is tripped after 6000 s and the HPIS is activated after 12,012 s. The lower head temperature distributions calculated with SCDAP/RELAP5 are visualized and animated with open source visualization freeware 'OpenDX'. (author)

  2. Traffic Analysis and Road Accidents: A Case Study of Hyderabad using GIS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bhagyaiah, M.; Shrinagesh, B.

    2014-06-01

    Globalization has impacted many developing countries across the world. India is one such country, which benefited the most. Increased, economic activity raised the consumption levels of the people across the country. This created scope for increase in travel and transportation. The increase in the vehicles since last 10 years has put lot of pressure on the existing roads and ultimately resulting in road accidents. It is estimated that since 2001 there is an increase of 202 percent of two wheeler and 286 percent of four wheeler vehicles with no road expansion. Motor vehicle crashes are a common cause of death, disability and demand for emergency medical care. Globally, more than 1 million people die each year from traffic crashes and about 20-50 million are injured or permanently disabled. There has been increasing trend in road accidents in Hyderabad over a few years. GIS helps in locating the accident hotspots and also in analyzing the trend of road accidents in Hyderabad.

  3. Offsite radiological consequence analysis for the bounding tank failure due to excessive loads accident

    SciTech Connect

    OBERG, B.D.

    2003-03-20

    This document quantifies the offsite radiological consequence of the bounding tank failure due to excessive loads accident for comparison with the 25 rem Evaluation Guideline established in WE-STK-3009, Appendix A. The bounding tank failure due to excessive loads accident is a single-shell tank failure due to excessive concentrated load. The calculated offsite dose of 0.045 rem, based on reasonably conservative input, does not challenge the Evaluation Guideline.

  4. Biomechanical analysis of occupant kinematics in rollover motor vehicle accidents: dynamic spit test.

    PubMed

    Sances, Anthony; Kumaresan, Srirangam; Clarke, Richard; Herbst, Brian; Meyer, Steve

    2005-01-01

    A better understanding of occupant kinematics in rollover accidents helps to advance biomechanical knowledge and to enhance the safety features of motor vehicles. While many rollover accident simulation studies have adopted the static approach to delineate the occupant kinematics in rollover accidents, very few studies have attempted the dynamic approach. The present work was designed to study the biomechanics of restrained occupants during rollover accidents using the steady-state dynamic spit test and to address the importance of keeping the lap belt fastened. Experimental tests were conducted using an anthropometric 50% Hybrid III dummy in a vehicle. The vehicle was rotated at 180 degrees/second and the dummy was restrained using a standard three-point restraint system. The lap belt of the dummy was fastened either by using the cinching latch plate or by locking the retractor. Three configurations of shoulder belt harness were simulated: shoulder belt loose on chest with cinch plate, shoulder belt under the left arm and shoulder belt behind the chest. In all tests, the dummy stayed within the confinement of the vehicle indicating that the securely fastened lap belt holds the dummy with dynamic movement of 3 1/2" to 4". The results show that occupant movement in rollover accidents is least affected by various shoulder harness positions with a securely fastened lap belt. The present study forms a first step in delineating the biomechanics of occupants in rollover accidents.

  5. Identification of Behavior Based Safety by Using Traffic Light Analysis to Reduce Accidents

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mansur, A.; Nasution, M. I.

    2016-01-01

    This work present the safety assessment of a case study and describes an important area within the field production in oil and gas industry, namely behavior based safety (BBS). The company set a rigorous BBS and its intervention program that implemented and deployed continually. In this case, observers requested to have discussion and spread a number of determined questions related with work behavior to the workers during observation. Appraisal of Traffic Light Analysis (TLA) as one tools of risk assessment used to determine the estimated score of BBS questionnaire. Standardization of TLA appraisal in this study are based on Regulation of Minister of Labor and Occupational Safety and Health No:PER.05/MEN/1996. The result shown that there are some points under 84%, which categorized in yellow category and should corrected immediately by company to prevent existing bad behavior of workers. The application of BBS expected to increase the safety performance at work time-by-time and effective in reducing accidents.

  6. Sensitivity analysis of a ship accident at a deep-ocean site in the northwest Atlantic

    SciTech Connect

    Kaplan, M.F.

    1985-04-01

    This report presents the results of a sensitivity analysis for an HLW ship accident occurring in the Nares Abyssal Plain in the northwestern Atlantic. Waste form release rate, canister lifetime and sorption in the water column (partition coefficients) were varied. Also investigated were the relative importance of the dose from the food chain and from seaweed in the diet. Peak individual doses and integrated collective doses for populations were the units of comparison. In accordance with international guidelines on radiological protection, the comparisons of different options were carried out over ''all time''; the study uses a million-year time frame. Partition coefficients have the most pronounced effect on collective dose of the parameters studied. Variations in partition coefficients affect the shape of the collective dose curve over the entire time frame. Peak individual doses decrease markedly when the value for the sorption of americium is increased, but show no increase when less sorption is assumed. Waste form release rates and canister lifetimes affect collective doses only in periods prior to 20,000 years. Hence, comparisons of these options need not be carried out beyond 20,000 years. Waste from release rates below 10/sup -3//yr (nominal value) affect individual doses in a linear manner, i.e., an order-of-magnitude reduction in release rate leads to an order-of-magnitude reduction in peak individual dose. Little reduction in peak individual doses is seen with canister lifetimes extended beyond the nominal 100 years. 32 refs., 14 figs., 16 tabs.

  7. THERMAL ANALYSIS OF A 9975 PACKAGE IN A FACILITY FIRE ACCIDENT

    SciTech Connect

    Gupta, N.

    2011-02-14

    Surplus plutonium bearing materials in the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) complex are stored in the 3013 containers that are designed to meet the requirements of the DOE standard DOE-STD-3013. The 3013 containers are in turn packaged inside 9975 packages that are designed to meet the NRC 10 CFR Part 71 regulatory requirements for transporting the Type B fissile materials across the DOE complex. The design requirements for the hypothetical accident conditions (HAC) involving a fire are given in 10 CFR 71.73. The 9975 packages are stored at the DOE Savannah River Site in the K-Area Material Storage (KAMS) facility for long term of up to 50 years. The design requirements for safe storage in KAMS facility containing multiple sources of combustible materials are far more challenging than the HAC requirements in 10 CFR 71.73. While the 10 CFR 71.73 postulates an HAC fire of 1475 F and 30 minutes duration, the facility fire calls for a fire of 1500 F and 86 duration. This paper describes a methodology and the analysis results that meet the design limits of the 9975 component and demonstrate the robustness of the 9975 package.

  8. Routes to failure: analysis of 41 civil aviation accidents from the Republic of China using the human factors analysis and classification system.

    PubMed

    Li, Wen-Chin; Harris, Don; Yu, Chung-San

    2008-03-01

    The human factors analysis and classification system (HFACS) is based upon Reason's organizational model of human error. HFACS was developed as an analytical framework for the investigation of the role of human error in aviation accidents, however, there is little empirical work formally describing the relationship between the components in the model. This research analyses 41 civil aviation accidents occurring to aircraft registered in the Republic of China (ROC) between 1999 and 2006 using the HFACS framework. The results show statistically significant relationships between errors at the operational level and organizational inadequacies at both the immediately adjacent level (preconditions for unsafe acts) and higher levels in the organization (unsafe supervision and organizational influences). The pattern of the 'routes to failure' observed in the data from this analysis of civil aircraft accidents show great similarities to that observed in the analysis of military accidents. This research lends further support to Reason's model that suggests that active failures are promoted by latent conditions in the organization. Statistical relationships linking fallible decisions in upper management levels were found to directly affect supervisory practices, thereby creating the psychological preconditions for unsafe acts and hence indirectly impairing the performance of pilots, ultimately leading to accidents.

  9. TRAC-BF1/MOD1: An advanced best-estimate computer program for BWR accident analysis: User's guide

    SciTech Connect

    Rettig, W.H.; Wade, N.L. )

    1992-06-01

    The TRAC-BWR code development program at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory has developed versions of the Transient Reactor Analysis Code (TRAC) for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the public. The TRAC-BF1/MODI version of the computer code provides a best-estimate analysis capability for analyzing the full range of postulated accidents in boiling water reactor (BWR) systems and related facilities. This version provides a consistent and unified analysis capability for analyzing all areas of a large- or small-break loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA), beginning with the blowdown phase and continuing through heatup, reflood with quenching, and, finally, the refill phase of the accident. Also provided is a basic capability for the analysis of operational transients up to and including anticipated transients without scram (ATWS). The TRAC-BF1/MOD1 version produces results consistent with previous versions. Assessment calculations using the two TRAC-BFI versions show overall improvements in agreement with data and computation times as compared to earlier versions of the TRAC-BWR series of computer codes.

  10. TRAC-BF1/MOD1: An advanced best-estimate computer program for BWR accident analysis, Model description

    SciTech Connect

    Borkowski, J.A.; Wade, N.L.; Giles, M.M.; Rouhani, S.Z.; Shumway, R.W.; Singer, G.L.; Taylor, D.D.; Weaver, W.L. )

    1992-08-01

    The TRAC-BWR code development program at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory has developed versions of the Transient Reactor Analysis Code (TRAC) for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the public. The TRAC-BF1/MODl version of the computer code provides a best-estimate analysis capability for analyzing the full range of postulated accidents in boiling water reactor (BWR) systems and related facilities. This version provides a consistent and unified analysis capability for analyzing all areas of a large- or small-break loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA), beginning with the blowdown phase and continuing through heatup, reflood with quenching, and, finally, the refill phase of the accident. Also provided is a basic capability for the analysis of operational transients up to and including anticipated transients without scram (ATWS). The TRAC-BF1/MODI version produces results consistent with previous versions. Assessment calculations using the two TRAC-BF1 versions show overall improvements in agreement with data and computation times as compared to earlier versions of the TRAC-BWR series of computer codes.

  11. Advanced neutron source reactor conceptual safety analysis report, three-element-core design: Chapter 15, accident analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Chen, N.C.J.; Wendel, M.W.; Yoder, G.L.; Harrington, R.M.

    1996-02-01

    In order to utilize reduced enrichment fuel, the three-element-core design for the Advanced Neutron Source has been proposed. The proposed core configuration consists of inner, middle, and outer elements, with the middle element offset axially beneath the inner and outer elements, which are axially aligned. The three-element-core RELAP5 model assumes that the reactor hardware is changed only within the core region, so that the loop piping, heat exchangers, and pumps remain as assumed for the two-element-core configuration. To assess the impact of changes in the core region configuration and the thermal-hydraulic steady-state conditions, the safety analysis has been updated. This report gives the safety margins for the loss-of-off-site power and pressure-boundary fault accidents based on the RELAP5 results. AU margins are greater for the three-element-core simulations than those calculated for the two-element core.

  12. Modeling and analysis of the unprotected loss-of-flow accident in the Clinch River Breeder Reactor

    SciTech Connect

    Morris, E.E.; Dunn, F.E.; Simms, R.; Gruber, E.E.

    1985-01-01

    The influence of fission-gas-driven fuel compaction on the energetics resulting from a loss-of-flow accident was estimated with the aid of the SAS3D accident analysis code. The analysis was carried out as part of the Clinch River Breeder Reactor licensing process. The TREAT tests L6, L7, and R8 were analyzed to assist in the modeling of fuel motion and the effects of plenum fission-gas release on coolant and clad dynamics. Special, conservative modeling was introduced to evaluate the effect of fission-gas pressure on the motion of the upper fuel pin segment following disruption. For the nominal sodium-void worth, fission-gas-driven fuel compaction did not adversely affect the outcome of the transient. When uncertainties in the sodium-void worth were considered, however, it was found that if fuel compaction occurs, loss-of-flow driven transient overpower phenomenology could not be precluded.

  13. The epidemiology and cost analysis of patients presented to Emergency Department following traffic accidents

    PubMed Central

    Karadana, Gökçe Akgül; Aksu, Nalan Metin; Akkaş, Meltem; Akman, Canan; Üzümcügil, Akın; Özmen, M. Mahir

    2013-01-01

    Background Traffic accidents are ranked first as the cause of personal injury throughout the world. The high number of traffic accidents yielding injuries and fatalities makes them of great importance to Emergency Departments. Material/Methods Patients admitted to Hacettepe University Faculty of Medicine Adult Emergency Department due to traffic accidents were investigated epidemiologically. Differences between groups were evaluated by Kruskall-Wallis, Mann-Whitney, and Wilcoxon tests. A value of p<0.05 was accepted as statistically significant. Results We included 2003 patients over 16 years of age. The mean age was 39.6±16.1 and 55% were males. Admissions by ambulance and due to motor vehicle accidents were the most common. In 2004 the rate of traffic accidents (15.3%) was higher than the other years, the most common month was May (10.8%), and the most common time period was 6 pm to 12 am (midnight). About half of the patients (51.5%) were admitted in the first 30 minutes. Life-threatening condition was present in 9.6% of the patients. Head trauma was the most common type of trauma, with the rate of 18.3%. Mortality rate was 81.8%. The average length of hospital stay was 403 minutes (6.7 hours) and the average cost per patient was 983±4364 TL. Conclusions Further studies are needed to compare the cost found in this study with the mean cost for Turkey. However, the most important step to reduce the direct and indirect costs due to traffic accidents is the prevention of these accidents. PMID:24316815

  14. Occupational accidents aboard merchant ships

    PubMed Central

    Hansen, H; Nielsen, D; Frydenberg, M

    2002-01-01

    Objectives: To investigate the frequency, circumstances, and causes of occupational accidents aboard merchant ships in international trade, and to identify risk factors for the occurrence of occupational accidents as well as dangerous working situations where possible preventive measures may be initiated. Methods: The study is a historical follow up on occupational accidents among crew aboard Danish merchant ships in the period 1993–7. Data were extracted from the Danish Maritime Authority and insurance data. Exact data on time at risk were available. Results: A total of 1993 accidents were identified during a total of 31 140 years at sea. Among these, 209 accidents resulted in permanent disability of 5% or more, and 27 were fatal. The mean risk of having an occupational accident was 6.4/100 years at sea and the risk of an accident causing a permanent disability of 5% or more was 0.67/100 years aboard. Relative risks for notified accidents and accidents causing permanent disability of 5% or more were calculated in a multivariate analysis including ship type, occupation, age, time on board, change of ship since last employment period, and nationality. Foreigners had a considerably lower recorded rate of accidents than Danish citizens. Age was a major risk factor for accidents causing permanent disability. Change of ship and the first period aboard a particular ship were identified as risk factors. Walking from one place to another aboard the ship caused serious accidents. The most serious accidents happened on deck. Conclusions: It was possible to clearly identify work situations and specific risk factors for accidents aboard merchant ships. Most accidents happened while performing daily routine duties. Preventive measures should focus on workplace instructions for all important functions aboard and also on the prevention of accidents caused by walking around aboard the ship. PMID:11850550

  15. Retrospection of Chernobyl nuclear accident for decision analysis concerning remedial actions in Ukraine

    SciTech Connect

    Georgievskiy, Vladimir

    2007-07-01

    It is considered the efficacy of decisions concerning remedial actions when of-site radiological monitoring in the early and (or) in the intermediate phases was absent or was not informative. There are examples of such situations in the former Soviet Union where many people have been exposed: releases of radioactive materials from 'Krasnoyarsk-26' into Enisey River, releases of radioactive materials from 'Chelabinsk-65' (the Kishtim accident), nuclear tests at the Semipalatinsk Test Site, the Chernobyl nuclear accident etc. If monitoring in the early and (or) in the intermediate phases is absent the decisions concerning remedial actions are usually developed on the base of permanent monitoring. However decisions of this kind may be essentially erroneous. For these cases it is proposed to make retrospection of radiological data of the early and intermediate phases of nuclear accident and to project decisions concerning remedial actions on the base of both retrospective data and permanent monitoring data. In this Report the indicated problem is considered by the example of the Chernobyl accident for Ukraine. Their of-site radiological monitoring in the early and intermediate phases was unsatisfactory. In particular, the pasture-cow-milk monitoring had not been made. All official decisions concerning dose estimations had been made on the base of measurements of {sup 137}Cs in body (40 measurements in 135 days and 55 measurements in 229 days after the Chernobyl accident). For the retrospection of radiological data of the Chernobyl accident dynamic model has been developed. This model has structure similar to the structure of Pathway model and Farmland model. Parameters of the developed model have been identified for agricultural conditions of Russia and Ukraine. By means of this model dynamics of 20 radionuclides in pathways and dynamics of doses have been estimated for the early, intermediate and late phases of the Chernobyl accident. The main results are following

  16. Testing and analysis of structural integrity of electrosleeved tubes under severe accident transients

    SciTech Connect

    Majumdar, S.

    1999-12-10

    The structural integrity of flawed steam generator tubing with Electrosleeves{trademark} under simulated severe accident transients was analyzed by analytical models that used available material properties data and results from high-temperature tests conducted on Electrosleeved tubes. The Electrosleeve material is almost pure Ni and derives its strength and other useful properties from its nanocrystalline microstructure, which is stable at reactor operating temperatures. However, it undergoes rapid grain growth, at the high temperatures expected during severe accidents, resulting in a loss of strength and a corresponding decrease in flow stress. The magnitude of this decrease depends on the time-temperature history during the accident. Failure tests were conducted at ANL and FTI on internally pressurized Electrosleeved tubes with 80% and 100% throughwall machined axial notches in tie parent tubes that were subjected to simulated severe accident temperature transients. The test results, together with the analytical model, were used to estimate the unaged flow stress curve of the Electrosleeved material at high temperatures. Failure temperatures for Electrosleeved tubes with throughwall and part-throughwall axial cracks of various lengths in the parent tubes were calculated for a postulated severe accident transient.

  17. Accident analysis of large-scale technological disasters applied to an anaesthetic complication.

    PubMed

    Eagle, C J; Davies, J M; Reason, J

    1992-02-01

    The occurrence of serious accidents in complex industrial systems such as at Three Mile Island and Bhopal has prompted development of new models of causation and investigation of disasters. These analytical models have potential relevance in anaesthesia. We therefore applied one of the previously described systems to the investigation of an anaesthetic accident. The model chosen describes two kinds of failures, both of which must be sought. The first group, active failures, consists of mistakes made by practitioners in the provision of care. The second group, latent failures, represents flaws in the administrative and productive system. The model emphasizes the search for latent failures and shows that prevention of active failures alone is insufficient to avoid further accidents if latent failures persist unchanged. These key features and the utility of this model are illustrated by application to a case of aspiration of gastric contents. While four active failures were recognized, an equal number of latent failures also became apparent. The identification of both types of failures permitted the formulation of recommendations to avoid further occurrences. Thus this model of accident causation can provide a useful mechanism to investigate and possibly prevent anaesthetic accidents. PMID:1544192

  18. Analysis of 121 fatal passenger car-adult pedestrian accidents in China.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Hui; Yin, Zhiyong; Yang, Guangyu; Che, Xingping; Xie, Jingru; Huang, Wei; Wang, Zhengguo

    2014-10-01

    To study the characteristics of fatal vehicle-pedestrian accidents in China,a team was established and passenger car-pedestrian crash cases occurring between 2006 and 2011 in Beijing and Chongqing, China were collected. A total of 121 fatal passenger car-adult pedestrian collisions were sampled and analyzed. The pedestrian injuries were scored according to Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) and Injury Severity Score (ISS). The demographical distributions of fatal pedestrian accidents differed from other pedestrian accidents. Among the victims, no significant discrepancy in the distribution of ISS and AIS in head, thorax, abdomen, and extremities by pedestrian age was found, while pedestrian behaviors prior to the crashes may affect the ISS. The distributions of AIS in head, thorax, and abdomen among the fatalities did not show any association with impact speeds or vehicle types, whereas there was a strong relationship between the ISS and impact speeds. Whether pedestrians died in the accident field or not was not associated with the ISS or AIS. The present results may be useful for not only forensic experts but also vehicle safety researchers. More investigations regarding fatal pedestrian accidents need be conducted in great detail.

  19. APT Blanket System Loss-of-Coolant Accident (LOCA) Analysis Based on Initial Conceptual Design - Case 3: External HR Break at Pump Outlet without Pump Trip

    SciTech Connect

    Hamm, L.L.

    1998-10-07

    This report is one of a series of reports that document normal operation and accident simulations for the Accelerator Production of Tritium (APT) blanket heat removal (HR) system. These simulations were performed for the Preliminary Safety Analysis Report.

  20. APT Blanket System Loss-of-Flow Accident (LOFA) Analysis Based on Initial Conceptual Design - Case 1: with Beam Shutdown and Active RHR

    SciTech Connect

    Hamm, L.L.

    1998-10-07

    This report is one of a series of reports that document normal operation and accident simulations for the Accelerator Production of Tritium (APT) blanket heat removal system. These simulations were performed for the Preliminary Safety Analysis Report.

  1. A Comprehensive Analysis of the X-15 Flight 3-65 Accident

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dennehy, Cornelius J.; Orr, Jeb S.; Barshi, Immanuel; Statler, Irving C.

    2014-01-01

    The November 15, 1967, loss of X-15 Flight 3-65-97 (hereafter referred to as Flight 3-65) was a unique incident in that it was the first and only aerospace flight accident involving loss of crew on a vehicle with an adaptive flight control system (AFCS). In addition, Flight 3-65 remains the only incidence of a single-pilot departure from controlled flight of a manned entry vehicle in a hypersonic flight regime. To mitigate risk to emerging aerospace systems, the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) proposed a comprehensive review of this accident. The goal of the assessment was to resolve lingering questions regarding the failure modes of the aircraft systems (including the AFCS) and thoroughly analyze the interactions among the human agents and autonomous systems that contributed to the loss of the pilot and aircraft. This document contains the outcome of the accident review.

  2. Analysis of hospitalization occurred due to motorcycles accidents in São Paulo city

    PubMed Central

    Gorios, Carlos; Armond, Jane de Eston; Rodrigues, Cintia Leci; Pernambuco, Henrique; Iporre, Ramiro Ortiz; Colombo-Souza, Patrícia

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To characterize the motorcycle accidents occurred in the city of São Paulo, SP, Brazil in the year 2013, with emphasis on information about hospital admissions from SIH/SUS. METHODS: This is a retrospective cross-sectional study. The study covered 5,597 motorcyclists traumatized in traffic accident during the year 2013 occurred in the city of São Paulo. A survey was conducted using secondary data from the Information System of Hospitalization Health System (SIH/SUS). RESULTS: In 2013, in the city of São Paulo there were 5,597 admissions of motorcyclists traumatized in traffic accidents, of which 89.8% were male. The admission diagnosis were: leg fracture, femur fracture, and intracranial injury. CONCLUSION: This study confirms other preliminary studies on several points, among which stands out the highest prevalence of male young adults. Level of Evidence II, Retrospective Study. PMID:26327804

  3. Comparative analysis of social, demographic, and flight-related attributes between accident and nonaccident general aviation pilots.

    PubMed

    Urban, R F

    1984-04-01

    This investigation represents an exploratory examination of several differentiating social and demographic characteristics for a sample of calendar year 1978 Colorado-resident nonfatal accident-involved pilots and a random sample of nonaccident general aviation (i.e., nonairline) pilots. During 1979-1980 80 currently active pilots were interviewed by the author, and information concerning the standard demographic variables, in addition to several social, psychological, and flying-related items, was obtained. The sample was generated from commercially available data files derived from U.S. Government records and consisted of 46 accident and 34 nonaccident pilots who resided within a 100-mi radius of Denver, east of the Rocky Mountains. Descriptively, the respondents represented a broad spectrum of general aviation, including: corporate pilots, "crop dusters," builders of amateur experimental aircraft, and recreational fliers. Application of stepwise discriminant analysis revealed that the pilots' education, political orientation, birth order, percent of flying for business purposes, participation in nonflying aviation activities, number of years of flying experience, and an index of aviation procedural noncompliance yielded statistically significant results. Furthermore, utilization of the classification capability of discriminant analysis produced a mathematical function which correctly allocated 78.5% of the cases into the appropriate groups, thus contributing to a 56.5% proportionate reduction in error over a random effects model. No relationship was found between accident involvement and several indicators of social attachments, socioeconomic status, and a number of measures of flying exposure. PMID:6732683

  4. Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Uncertainty assessment for deposited material and external doses. Volume 1: Main report

    SciTech Connect

    Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P.; Cooke, R.M.; Boardman, J.; Jones, J.A.; Harper, F.T.; Young, M.L.; Hora, S.C.

    1997-12-01

    The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA deposited material and external dose models.

  5. Environmental risk management for radiological accidents: integrating risk assessment and decision analysis for remediation at different spatial scales.

    PubMed

    Yatsalo, Boris; Sullivan, Terrence; Didenko, Vladimir; Linkov, Igor

    2011-07-01

    The consequences of the Tohuku earthquake and subsequent tsunami in March 2011 caused a loss of power at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, in Japan, and led to the release of radioactive materials into the environment. Although the full extent of the contamination is not currently known, the highly complex nature of the environmental contamination (radionuclides in water, soil, and agricultural produce) typical of nuclear accidents requires a detailed geospatial analysis of information with the ability to extrapolate across different scales with applications to risk assessment models and decision making support. This article briefly summarizes the approach used to inform risk-based land management and remediation decision making after the Chernobyl, Soviet Ukraine, accident in 1986. PMID:21608109

  6. Development of the simulation system {open_quotes}IMPACT{close_quotes} for analysis of nuclear power plant severe accidents

    SciTech Connect

    Naitoh, Masanori; Ujita, Hiroshi; Nagumo, Hiroichi

    1997-07-01

    The Nuclear Power Engineering Corporation (NUPEC) has initiated a long-term program to develop the simulation system {open_quotes}IMPACT{close_quotes} for analysis of hypothetical severe accidents in nuclear power plants. IMPACT employs advanced methods of physical modeling and numerical computation, and can simulate a wide spectrum of senarios ranging from normal operation to hypothetical, beyond-design-basis-accident events. Designed as a large-scale system of interconnected, hierarchical modules, IMPACT`s distinguishing features include mechanistic models based on first principles and high speed simulation on parallel processing computers. The present plan is a ten-year program starting from 1993, consisting of the initial one-year of preparatory work followed by three technical phases: Phase-1 for development of a prototype system; Phase-2 for completion of the simulation system, incorporating new achievements from basic studies; and Phase-3 for refinement through extensive verification and validation against test results and available real plant data.

  7. Publish unexpected results that conflict with assumptions

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Some widely held scientific assumptions have been discredited, whereas others are just inappropriate for many applications. Sometimes, a widely-held analysis procedure takes on a life of its own, forgetting the original purpose of the analysis. The peer-reviewed system makes it difficult to get a pa...

  8. What can the drivers' own description from combined sources provide in an analysis of driver distraction and low vigilance in accident situations?

    PubMed

    Tivesten, Emma; Wiberg, Henrik

    2013-03-01

    Accident data play an important role in vehicle safety development. Accident data sources are generally limited in terms of how much information is provided on driver states and behaviour prior to an accident. However, the precise limitations vary between databases, due to differences in analysis focus and data collection procedures between organisations. If information about a specific accident can be retrieved from more than one data source it should be possible to combine the available information sets to facilitate data from one source to compensate for limitations in the other(s). To investigate the viability of such compensation, this study identified a set of accidents recorded in two different data sources. The first data source investigated was an accident mail survey and the second data source insurance claims documents consisting predominantly of insurance claims completed by the involved road users. An analysis of survey variables was compared to a case analysis including word data derived from the same survey and filed insurance claims documents. For each accident, the added value of having access to more than one source of information was assessed. To limit the scope of this study, three particular topics were investigated: available information on low vigilance (e.g., being drowsy, ill); secondary task distraction (e.g., talking with passengers, mobile phone use); and distraction related to the driving task (e.g., looking for approaching vehicles). Results suggest that for low vigilance and secondary task distraction, a combination of the mail survey and insurance claims documents provide more reliable and detailed pre-crash information than survey variables alone. However, driving related distraction appears to be more difficult to capture. In order to gain a better understanding of the above issues and how frequently they occur in accidents, the data sources and analysis methods suggested here may be combined with other investigation methods such

  9. What can the drivers' own description from combined sources provide in an analysis of driver distraction and low vigilance in accident situations?

    PubMed

    Tivesten, Emma; Wiberg, Henrik

    2013-03-01

    Accident data play an important role in vehicle safety development. Accident data sources are generally limited in terms of how much information is provided on driver states and behaviour prior to an accident. However, the precise limitations vary between databases, due to differences in analysis focus and data collection procedures between organisations. If information about a specific accident can be retrieved from more than one data source it should be possible to combine the available information sets to facilitate data from one source to compensate for limitations in the other(s). To investigate the viability of such compensation, this study identified a set of accidents recorded in two different data sources. The first data source investigated was an accident mail survey and the second data source insurance claims documents consisting predominantly of insurance claims completed by the involved road users. An analysis of survey variables was compared to a case analysis including word data derived from the same survey and filed insurance claims documents. For each accident, the added value of having access to more than one source of information was assessed. To limit the scope of this study, three particular topics were investigated: available information on low vigilance (e.g., being drowsy, ill); secondary task distraction (e.g., talking with passengers, mobile phone use); and distraction related to the driving task (e.g., looking for approaching vehicles). Results suggest that for low vigilance and secondary task distraction, a combination of the mail survey and insurance claims documents provide more reliable and detailed pre-crash information than survey variables alone. However, driving related distraction appears to be more difficult to capture. In order to gain a better understanding of the above issues and how frequently they occur in accidents, the data sources and analysis methods suggested here may be combined with other investigation methods such

  10. Radiotherapy Accidents

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mckenzie, Alan

    A major benefit of a Quality Assurance system in a radiotherapy centre is that it reduces the likelihood of an accident. For over 20 years I have been the interface in the UK between the Institute of Physics and Engineering in Medicine and the media — newspapers, radio and TV — and so I have learned about radiotherapy accidents from personal experience. In some cases, these accidents did not become public and so the hospital cannot be identified. Nevertheless, lessons are still being learned.

  11. Drinking locations of drink-drivers: a comparative analysis of accident and nonaccident cases.

    PubMed

    Lang, E; Stockwell, T

    1991-12-01

    This study utilizes data collected by the Perth (Australia) Traffic Police on the last drinking location of persons arrested for drink-driving either as a consequence of their being involved in a road traffic accident or as a result of failing a roadside breath test. A comparison of these data has found that significantly more persons involved in traffic accidents had been drinking at unlicensed locations, that is at private residences or in public places such as parks, than at licensed premises. It was also found that accident cases were more likely to involve males under 25 years; for those involved to have, on average, significantly higher blood alcohol levels than was the case for nonaccident drink-driving cases; and for most accidents to occur late at night and early morning. The significance of these findings were confirmed by logistic regression. A surprise incidental finding was that considerably more women had been arrested for drink-driving than had been previously reported in other studies, both in Australia and overseas.

  12. Risk Analysis for Public Consumption: Media Coverage of the Ginna Nuclear Reactor Accident.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dunwoody, Sharon; And Others

    Researchers have determined that the lay public makes risk judgments in ways that are very different from those advocated by scientists. Noting that these differences have caused considerable concern among those who promote and regulate health and safety, a study examined media coverage of the accident at the Robert E. Ginna nuclear power plant…

  13. Spontaneous abortions after the Three Mile Island nuclear accident: a life table analysis.

    PubMed

    Goldhaber, M K; Staub, S L; Tokuhata, G K

    1983-07-01

    A study was conducted to determine whether the incidence of spontaneous abortion was greater than expected near the Three Mile Island (TMI) nuclear power plant during the months following the March 28, 1979 accident. All persons living within five miles of TMI were registered shortly after the accident, and information on pregnancy at the time of the accident was collected. After one year, all pregnancy cases were followed up and outcomes ascertained. Using the life table method, it was found that, given pregnancies after four completed weeks of gestation counting from the first day of the last menstrual period, the estimated incidence of spontaneous abortion (miscarriage before completion of 16 weeks of gestation) was 15.1 per cent for women pregnant at the time of the TMI accident. Combining spontaneous abortions and stillbirths (delivery of a dead fetus after 16 weeks of gestation), the estimated incidence was 16.1 per cent for pregnancies after four completed weeks of gestation. Both incidences are comparable to baseline studies of fetal loss. PMID:6859357

  14. Spontaneous abortions after the Three Mile Island nuclear accident: a life table analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Goldhaber, M.K.; Staub, S.L.; Tokuhata, G.K.

    1983-07-01

    A study was conducted to determine whether the incidence of spontaneous abortion was greater than expected near the Three Mile Island (TMI) nuclear power plant during the months following the March 28, 1979 accident. All persons living within five miles of TMI were registered shortly after the accident, and information on pregnancy at the time of the accident was collected. After one year, all pregnancy cases were followed up and outcomes ascertained. Using the life table method, it was found that, given pregnancies after four completed weeks of gestation counting from the first day of the last menstrual period, the estimated incidence of spontaneous abortion (miscarriage before completion of 16 weeks of gestation) was 15.1 per cent for women pregnant at the time of the TMI accident. Combining spontaneous abortions and stillbirths (delivery of a dead fetus after 16 weeks of gestation), the estimated incidence was 16.1 per cent for pregnancies after four completed weeks of gestation. Both incidences are comparable to baseline studies of fetal loss.

  15. Spontaneous abortions after the Three Mile Island nuclear accident: a life table analysis.

    PubMed Central

    Goldhaber, M K; Staub, S L; Tokuhata, G K

    1983-01-01

    A study was conducted to determine whether the incidence of spontaneous abortion was greater than expected near the Three Mile Island (TMI) nuclear power plant during the months following the March 28, 1979 accident. All persons living within five miles of TMI were registered shortly after the accident, and information on pregnancy at the time of the accident was collected. After one year, all pregnancy cases were followed up and outcomes ascertained. Using the life table method, it was found that, given pregnancies after four completed weeks of gestation counting from the first day of the last menstrual period, the estimated incidence of spontaneous abortion (miscarriage before completion of 16 weeks of gestation) was 15.1 per cent for women pregnant at the time of the TMI accident. Combining spontaneous abortions and stillbirths (delivery of a dead fetus after 16 weeks of gestation), the estimated incidence was 16.1 per cent for pregnancies after four completed weeks of gestation. Both incidences are comparable to baseline studies of fetal loss. PMID:6859357

  16. Bullet identification: a case of a fatal hunting accident resolved by comparison of lead shot using instrumental neutron activation analysis.

    PubMed

    Capannesi, G; Sedda, A F

    1992-03-01

    Bullet identification by chemical analysis often provides a powerful clue in forensic science. A case is reported in which a hunting accident was resolved by using instrumental neutron activation analysis (INAA) for direct comparison of the trace element content in lead shot. Different preparation batches of lead shot appear to have a high within-group composition homogeneity, and good differentiation is achieved between different batches. Determination of the nickel and antimony content on a bush branch demonstrated that the branch had been perforated by one of the shot pellets, and this helped the detectives in reconstruction of the crime scene. PMID:1500906

  17. Launch Vehicle Fire Accident Preliminary Analysis of a Liquid-Metal Cooled Thermionic Nuclear Reactor: TOPAZ-II

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hu, G.; Zhao, S.; Ruan, K.

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, launch vehicle propellant fire accident analysis of TOPAZ-II reactor has been done by a thermionic reactor core analytic code-TATRHG(A) developed by author. When a rocket explodes on a launch pad, its payload-TOPAZ-II can be subjected to a severe thermal environment from the resulting fireball. The extreme temperatures associated with propellant fires can create a destructive environment in or near the fireball. Different kind of propellants - liquid propellant and solid propellant which will lead to different fire temperature are considered. Preliminary analysis shows that the solid propellant fires can melt the whole toxic beryllium radial reflector.

  18. A Longitudinal Analysis of the Causal Factors in Major Maritime Accidents in the USA and Canada (1996-2006)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Johnson, C. W.; Holloway, C, M.

    2007-01-01

    Accident reports provide important insights into the causes and contributory factors leading to particular adverse events. In contrast, this paper provides an analysis that extends across the findings presented over ten years investigations into maritime accidents by both the US National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) and Canadian Transportation Safety Board (TSB). The purpose of the study was to assess the comparative frequency of a range of causal factors in the reporting of adverse events. In order to communicate our findings, we introduce J-H graphs as a means of representing the proportion of causes and contributory factors associated with human error, equipment failure and other high level classifications in longitudinal studies of accident reports. Our results suggest the proportion of causal and contributory factors attributable to direct human error may be very much smaller than has been suggested elsewhere in the human factors literature. In contrast, more attention should be paid to wider systemic issues, including the managerial and regulatory context of maritime operations.

  19. Fukushima Daiichi Unit 1 Accident Progression Uncertainty Analysis and Implications for Decommissioning of Fukushima Reactors - Volume I.

    SciTech Connect

    Gauntt, Randall O.; Mattie, Patrick D.

    2016-01-01

    Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) has conducted an uncertainty analysis (UA) on the Fukushima Daiichi unit (1F1) accident progression with the MELCOR code. The model used was developed for a previous accident reconstruction investigation jointly sponsored by the US Department of Energy (DOE) and Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). That study focused on reconstructing the accident progressions, as postulated by the limited plant data. This work was focused evaluation of uncertainty in core damage progression behavior and its effect on key figures-of-merit (e.g., hydrogen production, reactor damage state, fraction of intact fuel, vessel lower head failure). The primary intent of this study was to characterize the range of predicted damage states in the 1F1 reactor considering state of knowledge uncertainties associated with MELCOR modeling of core damage progression and to generate information that may be useful in informing the decommissioning activities that will be employed to defuel the damaged reactors at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant. Additionally, core damage progression variability inherent in MELCOR modeling numerics is investigated.

  20. Validation and verification of RELAP5 for Advanced Neutron Source accident analysis: Part I, comparisons to ANSDM and PRSDYN codes

    SciTech Connect

    Chen, N.C.J.; Ibn-Khayat, M.; March-Leuba, J.A.; Wendel, M.W.

    1993-12-01

    As part of verification and validation, the Advanced Neutron Source reactor RELAP5 system model was benchmarked by the Advanced Neutron Source dynamic model (ANSDM) and PRSDYN models. RELAP5 is a one-dimensional, two-phase transient code, developed by the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory for reactor safety analysis. Both the ANSDM and PRSDYN models use a simplified single-phase equation set to predict transient thermal-hydraulic performance. Brief descriptions of each of the codes, models, and model limitations were included. Even though comparisons were limited to single-phase conditions, a broad spectrum of accidents was benchmarked: a small loss-of-coolant-accident (LOCA), a large LOCA, a station blackout, and a reactivity insertion accident. The overall conclusion is that the three models yield similar results if the input parameters are the same. However, ANSDM does not capture pressure wave propagation through the coolant system. This difference is significant in very rapid pipe break events. Recommendations are provided for further model improvements.

  1. Risk of road accident associated with the use of drugs: a systematic review and meta-analysis of evidence from epidemiological studies.

    PubMed

    Elvik, Rune

    2013-11-01

    This paper is a corrigendum to a previously published paper where errors were detected. The errors have been corrected in this paper. The paper is otherwise identical to the previously published paper. A systematic review and meta-analysis of studies that have assessed the risk of accident associated with the use of drugs when driving is presented. The meta-analysis included 66 studies containing a total of 264 estimates of the effects on accident risk of using illicit or prescribed drugs when driving. Summary estimates of the odds ratio of accident involvement are presented for amphetamines, analgesics, anti-asthmatics, anti-depressives, anti-histamines, benzodiazepines, cannabis, cocaine, opiates, penicillin and zopiclone (a sleeping pill). For most of the drugs, small or moderate increases in accident risk associated with the use of the drugs were found. Information about whether the drugs were actually used while driving and about the doses used was often imprecise. Most studies that have evaluated the presence of a dose-response relationship between the dose of drugs taken and the effects on accident risk confirm the existence of a dose-response relationship. Use of drugs while driving tends to have a larger effect on the risk of fatal and serious injury accidents than on the risk of less serious accidents (usually property-damage-only accidents). The quality of the studies that have assessed risk varied greatly. There was a tendency for the estimated effects of drug use on accident risk to be smaller in well-controlled studies than in poorly controlled studies. Evidence of publication bias was found for some drugs. The associations found cannot be interpreted as causal relationships, principally because most studies do not control very well for potentially confounding factors. PMID:22785089

  2. Risk of road accident associated with the use of drugs: a systematic review and meta-analysis of evidence from epidemiological studies.

    PubMed

    Elvik, Rune

    2013-11-01

    This paper is a corrigendum to a previously published paper where errors were detected. The errors have been corrected in this paper. The paper is otherwise identical to the previously published paper. A systematic review and meta-analysis of studies that have assessed the risk of accident associated with the use of drugs when driving is presented. The meta-analysis included 66 studies containing a total of 264 estimates of the effects on accident risk of using illicit or prescribed drugs when driving. Summary estimates of the odds ratio of accident involvement are presented for amphetamines, analgesics, anti-asthmatics, anti-depressives, anti-histamines, benzodiazepines, cannabis, cocaine, opiates, penicillin and zopiclone (a sleeping pill). For most of the drugs, small or moderate increases in accident risk associated with the use of the drugs were found. Information about whether the drugs were actually used while driving and about the doses used was often imprecise. Most studies that have evaluated the presence of a dose-response relationship between the dose of drugs taken and the effects on accident risk confirm the existence of a dose-response relationship. Use of drugs while driving tends to have a larger effect on the risk of fatal and serious injury accidents than on the risk of less serious accidents (usually property-damage-only accidents). The quality of the studies that have assessed risk varied greatly. There was a tendency for the estimated effects of drug use on accident risk to be smaller in well-controlled studies than in poorly controlled studies. Evidence of publication bias was found for some drugs. The associations found cannot be interpreted as causal relationships, principally because most studies do not control very well for potentially confounding factors.

  3. Retrospective reconstruction of Ioidne-131 distribution at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident by analysis of Ioidne-129

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Matsuzaki, Hiroyuki; Muramatsu, Yasuyuki; Toyama, Chiaki; Ohno, Takeshi; Kusuno, Haruka; Miyake, Yasuto; Honda, Maki

    2014-05-01

    Science and Education on June, 2011. So far more than 500 samples were measured and determined I-129 deposition amount by AMS at MALT (Micro Analysis Laboratory, Tandem accelerator), The University of Tokyo. The measurement error from AMS is less than 5%, typically 3%. The overall uncertainty is estimated less than 30%, including the uncertainty from that of the nominal value of the standard reference material used, that of I-129/I-131 ratio estimation, that of the "representativeness" for the region by the analyzed sample, etc. The isotopic ratio I-129/I-131 from the reactor was estimated [3] (to be 22.3 +- 6.3 as of March 11, 2011) from a series of samples collected by a group of The University of Tokyo on the 20th of April, 2011 for which the I-131 was determined by gamma-ray spectrometry with good precision. Complementarily, we had investigated the depth profile in soil of the accident derived I-129 and migration speed after the deposition and found that more than 90% of I-129 was concentrated within top 5 cm layer and the downward migration speed was less than 1cm/yr [4]. From the set of I-129 data, corresponding I-131 were calculated and the distribution map is going to be constructed. Various fine structures of the distribution came in sight. [1] Y. Nikiforov and D. R. Gnepp, 1994, Cancer, Vol. 47, pp748-766. [2] T. Straume, et al., 1996, Health Physics, Vol. 71, pp733-740. [3] Y. Miyake, H. Matsuzaki et al.,2012, Geochem. J., Vol. 46, pp327-333. [4] M. Honda, H. Matsuzaki et al., under submission.

  4. Interim MELCOR Simulation of the Fukushima Daiichi Unit 2 Accident Reactor Core Isolation Cooling Operation

    SciTech Connect

    Ross, Kyle W.; Gauntt, Randall O.; Cardoni, Jeffrey N.; Phillips, Jesse; Kalinich, Donald A.; Osborn, Douglas M.; Peko, Damian

    2013-11-01

    Data, a brief description of key boundary conditions, and results of Sandia National Laboratories’ ongoing MELCOR analysis of the Fukushima Unit 2 accident are given for the reactor core isolation cooling (RCIC) system. Important assumptions and related boundary conditions in the current analysis additional to or different than what was assumed/imposed in the work of SAND2012-6173 are identified. This work is for the U.S. Department of Energy’s Nuclear Energy University Programs fiscal year 2014 Reactor Safety Technologies Research and Development Program RC-7: RCIC Performance under Severe Accident Conditions.

  5. Evaluation of potential severe accidents during low power and shutdown operations at Surry, Unit 1. Volume 5: Analysis of core damage frequency from seismic events during mid-loop operations

    SciTech Connect

    Budnitz, R.J.; Davis, P.R.; Ravindra, M.K.; Tong, W.H.

    1994-08-01

    In 1989 the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) initiated an extensive program to examine carefully the potential risks during low-power and shutdown operations. The program included two parallel projects, one at Brookhaven National Laboratory studying a pressurized water reactor (Surry Unit 1) and the other at Sandia National Laboratories studying a boiling water reactor (Grand Gulf). Both the Brookhaven and Sandia projects have examined only accidents initiated by internal plant faults--so-called ``internal initiators.`` This project, which has explored the likelihood of seismic-initiated core damage accidents during refueling shutdown conditions, is complementary to the internal-initiator analyses at Brookhaven and Sandia. This report covers the seismic analysis at Surry Unit 1. All of the many systems modeling assumptions, component non-seismic failure rates, and human error rates that were used in the internal-initiator study at Surry have been adopted here, so that the results of the two studies can be as comparable as possible. Both the Brookhaven study and this study examine only two shutdown plant operating states (POSs) during refueling outages at Surry, called POS 6 and POS 10, which represent mid-loop operation before and after refueling, respectively. This analysis has been limited to work analogous to a level-1 seismic PRA, in which estimates have been developed for the core-damage frequency from seismic events during POSs 6 and 10. The results of the analysis are that the core-damage frequency of earthquake-initiated accidents during refueling outages in POS 6 and POS 10 is found to be low in absolute terms, less than 10{sup {minus}6}/year.

  6. Evaluation of potential severe accidents during low power and shutdown operations at Grand Gulf, Unit 1. Volume 5: Analysis of core damage frequency from seismic events for plant operational state 5 during a refueling outage

    SciTech Connect

    Budnitz, R.J.; Davis, P.R.; Ravindra, M.K.; Tong, W.H.

    1994-08-01

    In 1989 the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) initiated an extensive program to examine carefully the potential risks during low-power and shutdown operations. The program included two parallel projects, one at Sandia National Laboratories studying a boiling water reactor (Grand Gulf), and the other at Brookhaven National Laboratory studying a pressurized water reactor (Surry Unit 1). Both the Sandia and Brookhaven projects have examined only accidents initiated by internal plant faults---so-called ``internal initiators.`` This project, which has explored the likelihood of seismic-initiated core damage accidents during refueling outage conditions, is complementary to the internal-initiator analyses at Brookhaven and Sandia. This report covers the seismic analysis at Grand Gulf. All of the many systems modeling assumptions, component non-seismic failure rates, and human effort rates that were used in the internal-initiator study at Grand Gulf have been adopted here, so that the results of the study can be as comparable as possible. Both the Sandia study and this study examine only one shutdown plant operating state (POS) at Grand Gulf, namely POS 5 representing cold shutdown during a refueling outage. This analysis has been limited to work analogous to a level-1 seismic PRA, in which estimates have been developed for the core-damage frequency from seismic events during POS 5. The results of the analysis are that the core-damage frequency for earthquake-initiated accidents during refueling outages in POS 5 is found to be quite low in absolute terms, less than 10{sup {minus}7}/year.

  7. PF-4 simulated fire accident analysis: Filter-spray cool-down system reevaluation implications

    SciTech Connect

    White, B.W.; Gregory, W.S.

    1990-10-01

    The Los Alamos National Laboratory PF-4 facility was designed with spray cool down systems within the building's ventilation systems. The Engineering and Safety Analysis Group was asked, in cooperation with ENG-8 and MST-8, to evaluate whether the spray cool-down system still need to be classified as safety class'' systems. The study was performed using the FIRAC computer code. Given the fire source terms (hypothetical fire energy or time-temperature history), FIRAC can predict the pertinent transient flow parameters (pressures, flows, and temperatures) throughout a previously defined and selected fire zone. A computer model for the study that had all of the main ventilation systems in the south half of the PF-4 facility was used. Because the most hazardous room is located in the 400 Section, all ventilation systems but the 400 Section's one were simplified. The impetus for simplification was to keep the computer model tractable, and this was possible with the following assumptions: the fire cannot spread from one room to another, all corridor connecting doors are closed and will not fail under the pressures generated by the fire, and the principal pathway for potential release is the ventilation system. All of the blowers continue to operate, and all fire retardant systems fail to operate during the fire. The ASTM time-temperature curve was the source for the burn-room temperature, and smoke injection was used as input as well. Five different computer runs were made using different combinations of source terms and heat transfer. A connection from the burn room to the glovebox ventilation system was created by burning the glovebox plastic shielding; it was modeled by a branch having an initial flow 75 ft{sup 3}/min. 7 refs., 35 refs., 15 tabs.

  8. The helical decomposition and the instability assumption

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Waleffe, Fabian A.

    1993-01-01

    Direct numerical simulations show that the triadic transfer function T(k,p,q) peaks sharply when q (or p) is much smaller than k. The triadic transfer function T(k,p,q) gives the rate of energy input into wave number k from all interactions with modes of wave number p and q, where k, p, q form a triangle. This observation was thought to suggest that energy is cascaded downscale through non-local interactions with local transfer and that there was a strong connection between large and small scales. Both suggestions were in contradiction with the classical Kolmogorov picture of the energy cascade. The helical decomposition was found useful in distinguishing between kinematically independent interactions. That analysis has gone beyond the question of non-local interaction with local transfer. In particular, an assumption about the statistical direction of triadic energy transfer in any kinematically independent interaction was introduced (the instability assumption). That assumption is not necessary for the conclusions about non-local interactions with local transfer recalled above. In the case of turbulence under rapid rotation, the instability assumption leads to the prediction that energy is transferred in spectral space from the poles of the rotation axis toward the equator. The instability assumption is thought to be of general validity for any type of triad interactions (e.g. internal waves). The helical decomposition and the instability assumption offer detailed information about the homogeneous statistical dynamics of the Navier-Stokes equations. The objective was to explore the validity of the instability assumption and to study the contributions of the various types of helical interactions to the energy cascade and the subgrid-scale eddy-viscosity. This was done in the context of spectral closures of the Direct Interaction or Quasi-Normal type.

  9. Analysis of potential for jet-impingement erosion from leaking steam generator tubes during severe accidents.

    SciTech Connect

    Majumdar, S.; Diercks, D. R.; Shack, W. J.; Energy Technology

    2002-05-01

    This report summarizes analytical evaluation of crack-opening areas and leak rates of superheated steam through flaws in steam generator tubes and erosion of neighboring tubes due to jet impingement of superheated steam with entrained particles from core debris created during severe accidents. An analytical model for calculating crack-opening area as a function of time and temperature was validated with tests on tubes with machined flaws. A three-dimensional computational fluid dynamics code was used to calculate the jet velocity impinging on neighboring tubes as a function of tube spacing and crack-opening area. Erosion tests were conducted in a high-temperature, high-velocity erosion rig at the University of Cincinnati, using micrometer-sized nickel particles mixed in with high-temperature gas from a burner. The erosion results, together with analytical models, were used to estimate the erosive effects of superheated steam with entrained aerosols from the core during severe accidents.

  10. Accident simulation and consequence analysis in support of MHTGR safety evaluations

    SciTech Connect

    Ball, S.J.; Wichner, R.P.; Smith, O.L.; Conklin, J.C. ); Barthold, W.P. )

    1991-01-01

    This paper summarizes research performed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) to assist the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) in preliminary determinations of licensability of the US Department of Energy (DOE) reference design of a standard modular high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (MHTGR). The work described includes independent analyses of core heatup and steam ingress accidents, and the reviews and analyses of fuel performance and fission product transport technology.

  11. Review of Cytogenetic analysis of restoration workers for Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station accident.

    PubMed

    Suto, Yumiko

    2016-09-01

    Japan faced with the nuclear accident of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station (NPS) caused by the combined disaster of the Great East Japan Earthquake and the subsequent tsunamis on 11 March 2011. National Institute of Radiological Sciences received all nuclear workers who were engaged in emergency response tasks at the NPS and suspected of being overexposed to acute radiation. Biological dosimetry by dicentric chromosome assay was helpful for medical triage and management of the workers. PMID:27473701

  12. Review of Cytogenetic analysis of restoration workers for Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station accident.

    PubMed

    Suto, Yumiko

    2016-09-01

    Japan faced with the nuclear accident of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station (NPS) caused by the combined disaster of the Great East Japan Earthquake and the subsequent tsunamis on 11 March 2011. National Institute of Radiological Sciences received all nuclear workers who were engaged in emergency response tasks at the NPS and suspected of being overexposed to acute radiation. Biological dosimetry by dicentric chromosome assay was helpful for medical triage and management of the workers.

  13. Analysis of Radionuclide Releases from the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant Accident Part II

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Achim, Pascal; Monfort, Marguerite; Le Petit, Gilbert; Gross, Philippe; Douysset, Guilhem; Taffary, Thomas; Blanchard, Xavier; Moulin, Christophe

    2014-03-01

    The present part of the publication (Part II) deals with long range dispersion of radionuclides emitted into the atmosphere during the Fukushima Dai-ichi accident that occurred after the March 11, 2011 tsunami. The first part (Part I) is dedicated to the accident features relying on radionuclide detections performed by monitoring stations of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Organization network. In this study, the emissions of the three fission products Cs-137, I-131 and Xe-133 are investigated. Regarding Xe-133, the total release is estimated to be of the order of 6 × 1018 Bq emitted during the explosions of units 1, 2 and 3. The total source term estimated gives a fraction of core inventory of about 8 × 1018 Bq at the time of reactors shutdown. This result suggests that at least 80 % of the core inventory has been released into the atmosphere and indicates a broad meltdown of reactor cores. Total atmospheric releases of Cs-137 and I-131 aerosols are estimated to be 1016 and 1017 Bq, respectively. By neglecting gas/particulate conversion phenomena, the total release of I-131 (gas + aerosol) could be estimated to be 4 × 1017 Bq. Atmospheric transport simulations suggest that the main air emissions have occurred during the events of March 14, 2011 (UTC) and that no major release occurred after March 23. The radioactivity emitted into the atmosphere could represent 10 % of the Chernobyl accident releases for I-131 and Cs-137.

  14. SiC MODIFICATIONS TO MELCOR FOR SEVERE ACCIDENT ANALYSIS APPLICATIONS

    SciTech Connect

    Brad J. Merrill; Shannon M Bragg-Sitton

    2013-09-01

    The Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy (NE) Light Water Reactor (LWR) Sustainability Program encompasses strategic research focused on improving reactor core economics and safety margins through the development of an advanced fuel cladding system. The Fuels Pathway within this program focuses on fuel system components outside of the fuel pellet, allowing for alteration of the existing zirconium-based clad system through coatings, addition of ceramic sleeves, or complete replacement (e.g. fully ceramic cladding). The DOE-NE Fuel Cycle Research & Development (FCRD) Advanced Fuels Campaign (AFC) is also conducting research on materials for advanced, accident tolerant fuels and cladding for application in operating LWRs. To aide in this assessment, a silicon carbide (SiC) version of the MELCOR code was developed by substituting SiC in place of Zircaloy in MELCOR’s reactor core oxidation and material property routines. The purpose of this development effort is to provide a numerical capability for estimating the safety advantages of replacing Zr-alloy components in LWRs with SiC components. This modified version of the MELCOR code was applied to the Three Mile Island (TMI-2) plant accident. While the results are considered preliminary, SiC cladding showed a dramatic safety advantage over Zircaloy cladding during this accident.

  15. Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis: Food chain uncertainty assessment. Volume 1: Main report

    SciTech Connect

    Brown, J.; Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P.

    1997-06-01

    This volume is the first of a two-volume document that summarizes a joint project conducted by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the European Commission to assess uncertainties in the MACCS and COSYMA probabilistic accident consequence codes. These codes were developed primarily for estimating the risks presented by nuclear reactors based on postulated frequencies and magnitudes of potential accidents. This document reports on an ongoing project to assess uncertainty in the MACCS and COSYMA calculations for the offsite consequences of radionuclide releases by hypothetical nuclear power plant accidents. A panel of sixteen experts was formed to compile credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for food chain variables that affect calculations of offsite consequences. The expert judgment elicitation procedure and its outcomes are described in these volumes. Other panels were formed to consider uncertainty in other aspects of the codes. Their results are described in companion reports. Volume 1 contains background information and a complete description of the joint consequence uncertainty study. Volume 2 contains appendices that include (1) a summary of the MACCS and COSYMA consequence codes, (2) the elicitation questionnaires and case structures for both panels, (3) the rationales and results for the panels on soil and plant transfer and animal transfer, (4) short biographies of the experts, and (5) the aggregated results of their responses.

  16. An analysis of thermionic space nuclear reactor power system: I. Effect of disassembling radial reflector, following a reactivity initiated accident

    SciTech Connect

    El-Genk, M.S.; Paramonov, D. )

    1993-01-10

    An analysis is performed to determine the effect of disassembling the radial reflector of the TOPAZ-II reactor, following a hypothetical severe Reactivity Initiated Accident (RIA). Such an RIA is assumed to occur during the system start-up in orbit due to a malfunction of the drive mechanism of the control drums, causing the drums to rotate the full 180[degree] outward at their maximum speed of 1.4[degree]/s. Results indicate that disassembling only three of twelve radial reflector panels would successfully shutdown the reactor, with little overheating of the fuel and the moderator.

  17. Analysis of the Effects of Compositional and Configurational Assumptions on Product Costs for the Thermochemical Conversion of Lignocellulosic Biomass to Mixed Alcohols -- FY 2007 Progress Report

    SciTech Connect

    Zhu, Yunhua; Gerber, Mark A.; Jones, Susanne B.; Stevens, Don J.

    2008-12-05

    The purpose of this study was to examine alternative biomass-to-ethanol conversion process assumptions and configuration options to determine their relative effects on overall process economics. A process-flow-sheet computer model was used to determine the heat and material balance for each configuration that was studied. The heat and material balance was then fed to a costing spreadsheet to determine the impact on the ethanol selling price. By examining a number of operational and configuration alternatives and comparing the results to the base flow sheet, alternatives having the greatest impact the performance and cost of the overall system were identified and used to make decisions on research priorities.

  18. Recursive modeling of loss of control in human and organizational processes: a systemic model for accident analysis.

    PubMed

    Kontogiannis, Tom; Malakis, Stathis

    2012-09-01

    A recursive model of accident investigation is proposed by exploiting earlier work in systems thinking. Safety analysts can understand better the underlying causes of decision or action flaws by probing into the patterns of breakdown in the organization of safety. For this deeper analysis, a cybernetic model of organizational factors and a control model of human processes have been integrated in this article (i.e., the viable system model and the extended control model). The joint VSM-ECOM framework has been applied to a case study to help safety practitioners with the analysis of patterns of breakdown with regard to how operators and organizations manage goal conflicts, monitor work progress, recognize weak signals, align goals across teams, and adapt plans on the fly. The recursive accident representation brings together several organizational issues (e.g., the dilemma of autonomy versus compliance, or the interaction between structure and strategy) and addresses how operators adapt to challenges in their environment by adjusting their modes of functioning and recovery. Finally, it facilitates the transfer of knowledge from diverse incidents and near misses within similar domains of practice.

  19. SACO-1: a fast-running LMFBR accident-analysis code

    SciTech Connect

    Mueller, C.J.; Cahalan, J.E.; Vaurio, J.K.

    1980-01-01

    SACO is a fast-running computer code that simulates hypothetical accidents in liquid-metal fast breeder reactors to the point of permanent subcriticality or to the initiation of a prompt-critical excursion. In the tradition of the SAS codes, each subassembly is modeled by a representative fuel pin with three distinct axial regions to simulate the blanket and core regions. However, analytic and integral models are used wherever possible to cut down the computing time and storage requirements. The physical models and basic equations are described in detail. Comparisons of SACO results to analogous SAS3D results comprise the qualifications of SACO and are illustrated and discussed.

  20. Resolve! Version 2.5: Flammable Gas Accident Analysis Tool Acceptance Test Plan and Test Results

    SciTech Connect

    LAVENDER, J.C.

    2000-10-17

    RESOLVE! Version 2 .5 is designed to quantify the risk and uncertainty of combustion accidents in double-shell tanks (DSTs) and single-shell tanks (SSTs). The purpose of the acceptance testing is to ensure that all of the options and features of the computer code run; to verify that the calculated results are consistent with each other; and to evaluate the effects of the changes to the parameter values on the frequency and consequence trends associated with flammable gas deflagrations or detonations.

  1. Analysis of a complex recreational scuba diving accident: French Pass, New Zealand, 2000.

    PubMed

    McGeoch, Graham; Davis, F Michael

    2009-03-01

    In March 2000, six students and an instructor dived using open-circuit scuba in a narrow pass and were swept by a strong current to a depth of 90 metres' sea water. Three died and four were injured, which makes the incident the worst diving accident in New Zealand history. The group was on an officially-sanctioned course with many factors contributing to the final tragic events. The dive is described and the medical response examined. The legal consequences are reported and their implications for diver training and employment are discussed.

  2. Analysis of a small break loss-of-coolant accident of pressurized water reactor by APROS

    SciTech Connect

    Al-Falahi, A.; Haennine, M.; Porkholm, K.

    1995-09-01

    The purpose of this paper is to study the capability of APROS (Advanced PROcess Simulator) code to simulate the real plant thermal-hydraulic transient of a Small Break Loss-Of-Coolant Accident (SBLOCA) of Loss-Of-Fluid Test (LOFT) facility. The LOFT is a scaled model of a Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR). This work is a part of a larger validation of the APROS thermal-hydraulic models. The results of SBLOCA transient calculated by APROS showed a reasonable agreement with the measured data.

  3. Distinguishing neglect from abuse and accident: analysis of the case files of a hospital child protection team in Israel.

    PubMed

    Davidson-Arad, Bilha; Benbenishty, Rami; Chen, Wendy; Glasser, Saralee; Zur, Shmuel; Lerner-Geva, Liat

    2010-11-01

    The study compares the characteristics of children assessed as neglected, physically abused, or accident victims by a hospital child protection team (CPT) and identifies the information on which the CPT based its assessments. The comparison is based on content analysis of records of 414 children examined by the CPT in a major hospital in Israel between 1991 and 2006, of whom 130 (31.4%) were neglected, 54 (13.0%) were physically abused, and 230 (55.6%) were accident victims. Findings of three hierarchical logistic regressions show that the children classified as neglected had the most early development problems, but were the least likely to have received psychological treatment, and that that their families were the most likely to be receiving state financial support and to have had prior contact with the social services. They also show that the CPT had received the least information indicative of maltreatment about these children from the community and that their medical and physical examinations aroused the least suspicion. Finally, they show that the impressions the hospital staff and CPT had of the parents during the hospital visit had greater power to distinguish between the groups than the children's characteristics or the parents' socio-demographic background. The findings attest to the ability of the CPT to differentiate between neglect victims and physical abuse or accident victims. With this, they also point to ambiguities in the classification process that should be addressed by further research and training and to the need for detailed and thorough documentation of the information and observations on which the CPT's assessments are based.

  4. Sampling Assumptions in Inductive Generalization

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Navarro, Daniel J.; Dry, Matthew J.; Lee, Michael D.

    2012-01-01

    Inductive generalization, where people go beyond the data provided, is a basic cognitive capability, and it underpins theoretical accounts of learning, categorization, and decision making. To complete the inductive leap needed for generalization, people must make a key "sampling" assumption about how the available data were generated. Previous…

  5. Analysis of injuries among pilots involved in fatal general aviation airplane accidents.

    PubMed

    Wiegmann, Douglas A; Taneja, Narinder

    2003-07-01

    The purpose of this study was to analyze patterns of injuries sustained by pilots involved in fatal general aviation (GA) airplane accidents. Detailed information on the pattern and nature of injuries was retrieved from the Federal Aviation Administration's autopsy database for pilots involved in fatal GA airplane accidents from 1996 to 1999. A review of 559 autopsies revealed that blunt trauma was the primary cause of death in 86.0% (N=481) of the autopsies. The most commonly occurring bony injuries were fracture of the ribs (72.3%), skull (55.1%), facial bones (49.4%), tibia (37.9%) and pelvis (36.0%). Common organ injuries included laceration of the liver (48.1%), lung (37.6%) heart (35.6%), and spleen (30.1%), and hemorrhage of the brain (33.3%) and lung (32.9%). A fractured larynx was observed in 14.7% of the cases, a finding that has not been reported in literature until now. It was observed that individuals who sustained brain hemorrhage were also more likely to have fractures of the facial bones rather than skull fractures. PMID:12729820

  6. Analysis of an AP600 intermediate-size loss-of-coolant accident

    SciTech Connect

    Boyack, B.E.; Lime, J.F.

    1995-09-01

    A postulated double-ended guillotine break of an AP600 direct-vessel-injection line has been analyzed. This event is characterized as an intermediate-break loss-of-coolant accident. Most of the insights regarding the response of the AP600 safety systems to the postulated accident are derived from calculations preformed with the TRAC-PF1/MOD2 code. However, complementary insights derived from a scaled experiment conducted in the ROSA facility, as well as insights based upon calculations by other codes, are also presented. Based upon the calculated and experimental results, the AP600 will not experience a core heat up and will reach a safe shutdown state using only safety-class equipment. Only the early part of the long-term cooling period initiated by In-containment Refueling Water Storage Tank injection was evaluated. Thus, the observation that the core is continuously cooled should be verified for the later phase of the long-term cooling period when sump injection and containment cooling processes are important.

  7. LeRoy Meisinger, Part II: Analysis of the Scientific Ballooning Accident of 2 June 1924.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lewis, John M.; Moore, Charles B.

    1995-02-01

    During the spring of 1924, U.S. Weather Bureau meteorologist LeRoy Meisinger conducted a series of experiments with a free balloon to determine the trajectories of air around extratropical cyclones. The 10th flight in the series ended with a crash of the balloon over central Illinois. Both Meisinger and the pilot, Army Air Services Lt. James Neely, were killed.An effort has been made to reconstruct this accident using information from a review article by early twentieth-century meteorologist Vincent Jakl and newspaper accounts of the accident. The principal results of the study follow.1) Meisinger's balloon was caught in the downdraft of a newly developed thunderstorm over the Bement, Illinois, area on the evening of 2 June;2) a hard landing took place in a cornfield just north of Bement, and loss of ballast at the hard-landing site was sufficient to cause the balloon to rise again; and3) after rebounding from the ground, the balloon with the two aeronauts aboard was struck by lightning. A fire resulted that burned through the netting and led to a crash four miles northeast of the hard-landing site.

  8. Thermal analysis of the 10-gallon and the 55-gallon DOT-6M containers with thermal boundary conditions corresponding to 10CFR71 normal transport and accident conditions

    SciTech Connect

    Sanchez, L.C.; Longenbaugh, R.S.; Moss, M.; Haseman, G.M.; Fowler, W.E.; Roth, E.P.

    1988-03-01

    This report describes the heat transfer analysis of the 10-gallon and 55-gallon 6M containers. The analysis was performed with boundary conditions corresponding to a normal transport condition and a hypothetical accident condition. Computational results indicated that the insulation material in the 6M containers will adequately protect the payload region of the 6M containers. 26 refs., 26 figs., 8 tabs.

  9. Health effects models for nuclear power plant accident consequence analysis. Part 1, Introduction, integration, and summary: Revision 2

    SciTech Connect

    Evans, J.S.; Abrahmson, S.; Bender, M.A.; Boecker, B.B.; Scott, B.R.; Gilbert, E.S.

    1993-10-01

    This report is a revision of NUREG/CR-4214, Rev. 1, Part 1 (1990), Health Effects Models for Nuclear Power Plant Accident Consequence Analysis. This revision has been made to incorporate changes to the Health Effects Models recommended in two addenda to the NUREG/CR-4214, Rev. 1, Part 11, 1989 report. The first of these addenda provided recommended changes to the health effects models for low-LET radiations based on recent reports from UNSCEAR, ICRP and NAS/NRC (BEIR V). The second addendum presented changes needed to incorporate alpha-emitting radionuclides into the accident exposure source term. As in the earlier version of this report, models are provided for early and continuing effects, cancers and thyroid nodules, and genetic effects. Weibull dose-response functions are recommended for evaluating the risks of early and continuing health effects. Three potentially lethal early effects -- the hematopoietic, pulmonary, and gastrointestinal syndromes are considered. Linear and linear-quadratic models are recommended for estimating the risks of seven types of cancer in adults - leukemia, bone, lung, breast, gastrointestinal, thyroid, and ``other``. For most cancers, both incidence and mortality are addressed. Five classes of genetic diseases -- dominant, x-linked, aneuploidy, unbalanced translocations, and multifactorial diseases are also considered. Data are provided that should enable analysts to consider the timing and severity of each type of health risk.

  10. Uncertainty analysis of preclosure accident doses for the Yucca Mountain repository

    SciTech Connect

    Ma, C.W.; Miller, D.D.; Zavoshy, S.J.; Jardine, L.J.

    1990-12-31

    This study presents a generic methodology that can be used to evaluate the uncertainty in the calculated accidental offsite doses at the Yucca Mountain repository during the preclosure period. For demonstration purposes, this methodology is applied to two specific accident scenarios: the first involves a crane dropping an open container with consolidated fuel rods, the second involves container failure during emplacement or removal operations. The uncertainties of thirteen parameters are quantified by various types of probability distributions. The Latin Hypercube Sampling method is used to evaluate the uncertainty of the offsite dose. For the crane-drop scenario with concurrent filter failure, the doses due to the release of airborne fuel particles are calculated to be 0.019, 0.32, and 2.8 rem at confidence levels of 10%, 50%, and 90%, respectively. For the container failure scenario with concurrent filter failure, the 90% confidence-level dose is 0.21 rem. 20 refs., 4 figs., 3 tabs.

  11. Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis: Food chain uncertainty assessment. Volume 2: Appendices

    SciTech Connect

    Brown, J.; Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P.

    1997-06-01

    This volume is the second of a two-volume document that summarizes a joint project by the US Nuclear Regulatory and the Commission of European Communities to assess uncertainties in the MACCS and COSYMA probabilistic accident consequence codes. These codes were developed primarily for estimating the risks presented by nuclear reactors based on postulated frequencies and magnitudes of potential accidents. This two-volume report, which examines mechanisms and uncertainties of transfer through the food chain, is the first in a series of five such reports. A panel of sixteen experts was formed to compile credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for food chain transfer that affect calculations of offsite radiological consequences. Seven of the experts reported on transfer into the food chain through soil and plants, nine reported on transfer via food products from animals, and two reported on both. The expert judgment elicitation procedure and its outcomes are described in these volumes. This volume contains seven appendices. Appendix A presents a brief discussion of the MAACS and COSYMA model codes. Appendix B is the structure document and elicitation questionnaire for the expert panel on soils and plants. Appendix C presents the rationales and responses of each of the members of the soils and plants expert panel. Appendix D is the structure document and elicitation questionnaire for the expert panel on animal transfer. The rationales and responses of each of the experts on animal transfer are given in Appendix E. Brief biographies of the food chain expert panel members are provided in Appendix F. Aggregated results of expert responses are presented in graph format in Appendix G.

  12. TRANSIENT ACCIDENT ANALYSIS OF THE GLOVEBOX SYSTEM IN A LARGE PROCESS ROOM

    SciTech Connect

    Lee, S

    2008-01-11

    Local transient hydrogen concentrations were evaluated inside a large process room when the hydrogen gas was released by three postulated accident scenarios associated with the process tank leakage and fire leading to a loss of gas confinement. The three cases considered in this work were fire in a room, loss of confinement from a process tank, and loss of confinement coupled with fire event. Based on these accident scenarios in a large and unventilated process room, the modeling calculations of the hydrogen migration were performed to estimate local transient concentrations of hydrogen due to the sudden leakage and release from a glovebox system associated with the process tank. The modeling domain represented the major features of the process room including the principal release or leakage source of gas storage system. The model was benchmarked against the literature results for key phenomena such as natural convection, turbulent behavior, gas mixing due to jet entrainment, and radiation cooling because these phenomena are closely related to the gas driving mechanisms within a large air space of the process room. The modeling results showed that at the corner of the process room, the gas concentrations migrated by the Case 2 and Case 3 scenarios reached the set-point value of high activity alarm in about 13 seconds, while the Case 1 scenario takes about 90 seconds to reach the concentration. The modeling results were used to estimate transient radioactive gas migrations in an enclosed process room installed with high activity alarm monitor when the postulated leakage scenarios are initiated without room ventilation.

  13. An aftermath analysis of the 2014 coal mine accident in Soma, Turkey: Use of risk performance indicators based on historical experience.

    PubMed

    Spada, Matteo; Burgherr, Peter

    2016-02-01

    On the 13th of May 2014 a fire related incident in the Soma coal mine in Turkey caused 301 fatalities and more than 80 injuries. This has been the largest coal mine accident in Turkey, and in the OECD country group, so far. This study investigated if such a disastrous event should be expected, in a statistical sense, based on historical observations. For this purpose, PSI's ENSAD database is used to extract accident data for the period 1970-2014. Four different cases are analyzed, i.e., OECD, OECD w/o Turkey, Turkey and USA. Analysis of temporal trends for annual numbers of accidents and fatalities indicated a non-significant decreasing tendency for OECD and OECD w/o Turkey and a significant one for USA, whereas for Turkey both measures showed an increase over time. The expectation analysis revealed clearly that an event with the consequences of the Soma accident is rather unlikely for OECD, OECD w/o Turkey and USA. In contrast, such a severe accident has a substantially higher expectation for Turkey, i.e. it cannot be considered an extremely rare event, based on historical experience. This indicates a need for improved safety measures and stricter regulations in the Turkish coal mining sector in order to get closer to the rest of OECD. PMID:26687539

  14. An aftermath analysis of the 2014 coal mine accident in Soma, Turkey: Use of risk performance indicators based on historical experience.

    PubMed

    Spada, Matteo; Burgherr, Peter

    2016-02-01

    On the 13th of May 2014 a fire related incident in the Soma coal mine in Turkey caused 301 fatalities and more than 80 injuries. This has been the largest coal mine accident in Turkey, and in the OECD country group, so far. This study investigated if such a disastrous event should be expected, in a statistical sense, based on historical observations. For this purpose, PSI's ENSAD database is used to extract accident data for the period 1970-2014. Four different cases are analyzed, i.e., OECD, OECD w/o Turkey, Turkey and USA. Analysis of temporal trends for annual numbers of accidents and fatalities indicated a non-significant decreasing tendency for OECD and OECD w/o Turkey and a significant one for USA, whereas for Turkey both measures showed an increase over time. The expectation analysis revealed clearly that an event with the consequences of the Soma accident is rather unlikely for OECD, OECD w/o Turkey and USA. In contrast, such a severe accident has a substantially higher expectation for Turkey, i.e. it cannot be considered an extremely rare event, based on historical experience. This indicates a need for improved safety measures and stricter regulations in the Turkish coal mining sector in order to get closer to the rest of OECD.

  15. Tools for improving safety management in the Norwegian Fishing Fleet occupational accidents analysis period of 1998-2006.

    PubMed

    Aasjord, Halvard L

    2006-01-01

    Reporting of human accidents in the Norwegian Fishing Fleet has always been very difficult because there has been no tradition in making reports on all types of working accidents among fishermen, if the accident does not seem to be very serious or there is no economical incentive to report. Therefore reports are only written when the accidents are serious or if the fisherman is reported sick. Reports about an accident are sent to the insurance company, but another report should also be sent to the Norwegian Maritime Directorate (NMD). Comparing of data from one former insurance company and NMD shows that the real numbers of injuries or serious accidents among Norwegian fishermen could be up to two times more than the numbers reported to NMD. Special analyses of 1690 accidents from the so called PUS-database (NMD) for the period 1998-2002, show that the calculated risk was 23.6 accidents per 1000 man-years. This is quite a high risk level, and most of the accidents in the fishing fleet were rather serious. The calculated risks are highest for fishermen on board the deep sea fleet of trawlers (28.6 accidents per 1000 man-years) and also on the deep sea fleet of purse seiners (28.9 accidents per 1000 man-years). Fatal accidents over a longer period of 51.5 years from 1955 to 2006 are also roughly analysed. These data from SINTEF's own database show that the numbers of fatal accidents have been decreasing over this long period, except for the two periods 1980-84 and 1990-94 where we had some casualties with total losses of larger vessels with the loss of most of the crew, but also many others typical work accidents on smaller vessels. The total numbers of registered Norwegian fishermen and also the numbers of man-years have been drastically reduced over the 51.5 years from 1955 to 2006. The risks of fatal accidents have been very steady over time at a high level, although there has been a marked risk reduction since 1990-94. For the last 8.5-year period of January 1998

  16. Tools for improving safety management in the Norwegian Fishing Fleet occupational accidents analysis period of 1998-2006.

    PubMed

    Aasjord, Halvard L

    2006-01-01

    Reporting of human accidents in the Norwegian Fishing Fleet has always been very difficult because there has been no tradition in making reports on all types of working accidents among fishermen, if the accident does not seem to be very serious or there is no economical incentive to report. Therefore reports are only written when the accidents are serious or if the fisherman is reported sick. Reports about an accident are sent to the insurance company, but another report should also be sent to the Norwegian Maritime Directorate (NMD). Comparing of data from one former insurance company and NMD shows that the real numbers of injuries or serious accidents among Norwegian fishermen could be up to two times more than the numbers reported to NMD. Special analyses of 1690 accidents from the so called PUS-database (NMD) for the period 1998-2002, show that the calculated risk was 23.6 accidents per 1000 man-years. This is quite a high risk level, and most of the accidents in the fishing fleet were rather serious. The calculated risks are highest for fishermen on board the deep sea fleet of trawlers (28.6 accidents per 1000 man-years) and also on the deep sea fleet of purse seiners (28.9 accidents per 1000 man-years). Fatal accidents over a longer period of 51.5 years from 1955 to 2006 are also roughly analysed. These data from SINTEF's own database show that the numbers of fatal accidents have been decreasing over this long period, except for the two periods 1980-84 and 1990-94 where we had some casualties with total losses of larger vessels with the loss of most of the crew, but also many others typical work accidents on smaller vessels. The total numbers of registered Norwegian fishermen and also the numbers of man-years have been drastically reduced over the 51.5 years from 1955 to 2006. The risks of fatal accidents have been very steady over time at a high level, although there has been a marked risk reduction since 1990-94. For the last 8.5-year period of January 1998

  17. Analysis of the Effects of Compositional and Configurational Assumptions on Product Costs for the Thermochemical Conversion of Lignocellulosic Biomass to Mixed Alcohols – FY 2007 Progress Report

    SciTech Connect

    Zhu, Yunhua; Gerber, Mark A.; Jones, Susanne B.; Stevens, Don J.

    2009-02-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine alternative biomass-to-ethanol conversion process assumptions and configuration options to determine their relative effects on overall process economics. A process-flow-sheet computer model was used to determine the heat and material balance for each configuration that was studied. The heat and material balance was then fed to a costing spreadsheet to determine the impact on the ethanol selling price. By examining a number of operational and configuration alternatives and comparing the results to the base flow sheet, alternatives having the greatest impact the performance and cost of the overall system were identified and used to make decisions on research priorities. This report, which was originally published in December 2008, has been revised primarily to correct information presented in Appendix B -- Base Case Flow Sheets and Model Results. The corrections to Appendix B include replacement of several pages in Table B.1 that duplicated previous pages of the table. Other changes were made in Appendix B to correct inconsistencies between stream labels presented in the tables and the stream labels in the figures.

  18. Fault tree analysis of fire and explosion accidents for dual fuel (diesel/natural gas) ship engine rooms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guan, Yifeng; Zhao, Jie; Shi, Tengfei; Zhu, Peipei

    2016-07-01

    In recent years, China's increased interest in environmental protection has led to a promotion of energy-efficient dual fuel (diesel/natural gas) ships in Chinese inland rivers. A natural gas as ship fuel may pose dangers of fire and explosion if a gas leak occurs. If explosions or fires occur in the engine rooms of a ship, heavy damage and losses will be incurred. In this paper, a fault tree model is presented that considers both fires and explosions in a dual fuel ship; in this model, dual fuel engine rooms are the top events. All the basic events along with the minimum cut sets are obtained through the analysis. The primary factors that affect accidents involving fires and explosions are determined by calculating the degree of structure importance of the basic events. According to these results, corresponding measures are proposed to ensure and improve the safety and reliability of Chinese inland dual fuel ships.

  19. Fault tree analysis of fire and explosion accidents for dual fuel (diesel/natural gas) ship engine rooms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guan, Yifeng; Zhao, Jie; Shi, Tengfei; Zhu, Peipei

    2016-09-01

    In recent years, China's increased interest in environmental protection has led to a promotion of energy-efficient dual fuel (diesel/natural gas) ships in Chinese inland rivers. A natural gas as ship fuel may pose dangers of fire and explosion if a gas leak occurs. If explosions or fires occur in the engine rooms of a ship, heavy damage and losses will be incurred. In this paper, a fault tree model is presented that considers both fires and explosions in a dual fuel ship; in this model, dual fuel engine rooms are the top events. All the basic events along with the minimum cut sets are obtained through the analysis. The primary factors that affect accidents involving fires and explosions are determined by calculating the degree of structure importance of the basic events. According to these results, corresponding measures are proposed to ensure and improve the safety and reliability of Chinese inland dual fuel ships.

  20. Equations for determining aircraft motions for accident data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bach, R. E., Jr.; Wingrove, R. C.

    1980-01-01

    Procedures for determining a comprehensive accident scenario from a limited data set are reported. The analysis techniques accept and process data from either an Air Traffic Control radar tracking system or a foil flight data recorder. Local meteorological information at the time of the accident and aircraft performance data are also utilized. Equations for the desired aircraft motions and forces are given in terms of elements of the measurement set and certain of their time derivatives. The principal assumption made is that aircraft side force and side-slip angle are negligible. An estimation procedure is outlined for use with each data source. For the foil case, a discussion of exploiting measurement redundancy is given. Since either formulation requires estimates of measurement time derivatives, an algorithm for least squares smoothing is provided.

  1. Calculation notes that support accident scenario and consequence development for the subsurface leak remaining subsurface accident

    SciTech Connect

    Ryan, G.W., Westinghouse Hanford

    1996-07-12

    This document supports the development and presentation of the following accident scenario in the TWRS Final Safety Analysis Report: Subsurface Leak Remaining Subsurface. The calculations needed to quantify the risk associated with this accident scenario are included within.

  2. Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis: Dispersion and deposition uncertainty assessment. Volume 3, Appendices C, D, E, F, and G

    SciTech Connect

    Harper, F.T.; Young, M.L.; Miller, L.A.

    1995-01-01

    The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, completed in 1990, estimate the risks presented by nuclear installations based on postulated frequencies and magnitudes of potential accidents. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the Commission of the European Communities (CEC) began a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The objective was to develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the input variables of the codes. Expert elicitation, developed independently, was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for the selected consequence parameters. The study was formulated jointly and was limited to the current code models and to physical quantities that could be measured in experiments. To validate the distributions generated for the wet deposition input variables, samples were taken from these distributions and propagated through the wet deposition code model along with the Gaussian plume model (GPM) implemented in the MACCS and COSYMA codes. Resulting distributions closely replicated the aggregated elicited wet deposition distributions. Project teams from the NRC and CEC cooperated successfully to develop and implement a unified process for the elaboration of uncertainty distributions on consequence code input parameters. Formal expert judgment elicitation proved valuable for synthesizing the best available information. Distributions on measurable atmospheric dispersion and deposition parameters were successfully elicited from experts involved in the many phenomenological areas of consequence analysis. This volume is the third of a three-volume document describing the project and contains descriptions of the probability assessment principles; the expert identification and selection process; the weighting methods used; the inverse modeling methods; case structures; and summaries of the consequence codes.

  3. Impact of assumptions concerning containment failure on the risk from nuclear power plants

    SciTech Connect

    Lappa, D.A.

    1984-09-10

    We describe the containment failure mode and release category assumptions used in the seismic risk study of the Zion nuclear power plant, which was performed by the Seismic Safety Margins Research Program (SSMRP). We then, for the dominant accident sequences, reassign containment failure modes and release categories based upon current thinking. We recalculate the seismic risk from the Zion facility using the new assumptions. Lastly, we discuss the impact of the new assumptions on the results and the relevance of the assumptions to value/impact analyses. 5 references, 5 tables.

  4. Modern Cosmology: Assumptions and Limits

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hwang, Jai-Chan

    2012-06-01

    Physical cosmology tries to understand the Universe at large with its origin and evolution. Observational and experimental situations in cosmology do not allow us to proceed purely based on the empirical means. We examine in which sense our cosmological assumptions in fact have shaped our current cosmological worldview with consequent inevitable limits. Cosmology, as other branches of science and knowledge, is a construct of human imagination reflecting the popular belief system of the era. The question at issue deserves further philosophic discussions. In Whitehead's words, ``philosophy, in one of its functions, is the critic of cosmologies.'' (Whitehead 1925).

  5. "Murder-suicide" or "murder-accident"? Difficulties with the analysis of cases.

    PubMed

    Byard, Roger W; Veldhoen, David; Kobus, Hilton; Heath, Karen

    2010-09-01

    Homicide where a perpetrator is found dead adjacent to the victim usually represents murder-suicide. Two incidents are reported to demonstrate characteristic features in one, and alternative features in the other, that indicate differences in the manner of death. (i) A 37-year-old mother was found dead in a burnt out house with her two young sons in an adjacent bedroom. Deaths were due to incineration and inhalation of products of combustion. (ii) A 39-year-old woman was found stabbed to death in a burnt out house with her 39-year-old de facto partner deceased from the combined effects of incineration and inhalation of products of combustion. The first incident represented a typical murder-suicide, however, in the second incident, the perpetrator had tried to escape through a window and had then sought refuge in a bathroom under a running shower. Murder-accident rather than murder-suicide may therefore be a more accurate designation for such cases.

  6. Health effects models for nuclear power plant accident consequence analysis: Low LET radiation

    SciTech Connect

    Evans, J.S. . School of Public Health)

    1990-01-01

    This report describes dose-response models intended to be used in estimating the radiological health effects of nuclear power plant accidents. Models of early and continuing effects, cancers and thyroid nodules, and genetic effects are provided. Weibull dose-response functions are recommended for evaluating the risks of early and continuing health effects. Three potentially lethal early effects -- the hematopoietic, pulmonary, and gastrointestinal syndromes -- are considered. In addition, models are included for assessing the risks of several nonlethal early and continuing effects -- including prodromal vomiting and diarrhea, hypothyroidism and radiation thyroiditis, skin burns, reproductive effects, and pregnancy losses. Linear and linear-quadratic models are recommended for estimating cancer risks. Parameters are given for analyzing the risks of seven types of cancer in adults -- leukemia, bone, lung, breast, gastrointestinal, thyroid, and other.'' The category, other'' cancers, is intended to reflect the combined risks of multiple myeloma, lymphoma, and cancers of the bladder, kidney, brain, ovary, uterus and cervix. Models of childhood cancers due to in utero exposure are also developed. For most cancers, both incidence and mortality are addressed. The models of cancer risk are derived largely from information summarized in BEIR III -- with some adjustment to reflect more recent studies. 64 refs., 18 figs., 46 tabs.

  7. Episode analysis of deposition of radiocesium from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident.

    PubMed

    Morino, Yu; Ohara, Toshimasa; Watanabe, Mirai; Hayashi, Seiji; Nishizawa, Masato

    2013-03-01

    Chemical transport models played key roles in understanding the atmospheric behaviors and deposition patterns of radioactive materials emitted from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant after the nuclear accident that accompanied the great Tohoku earthquake and tsunami on 11 March 2011. However, model results could not be sufficiently evaluated because of limited observational data. We assess the model performance to simulate the deposition patterns of radiocesium ((137)Cs) by making use of airborne monitoring survey data for the first time. We conducted ten sensitivity simulations to evaluate the atmospheric model uncertainties associated with key model settings including emission data and wet deposition modules. We found that simulation using emissions estimated with a regional-scale (∼ 500 km) model better reproduced the observed (137)Cs deposition pattern in eastern Japan than simulation using emissions estimated with local-scale (∼ 50 km) or global-scale models. In addition, simulation using a process-based wet deposition module reproduced the observations well, whereas simulation using scavenging coefficients showed large uncertainties associated with empirical parameters. The best-available simulation reproduced the observed (137)Cs deposition rates in high-deposition areas (≥ 10 kBq m(-2)) within 1 order of magnitude and showed that deposition of radiocesium over land occurred predominantly during 15-16, 20-23, and 30-31 March 2011. PMID:23391028

  8. [Diagnostic analysis of the rehabilitation services that attend victims of accidents and violence in Recife].

    PubMed

    de Lima, Maria Luiza Carvalho; Deslandes, Suely Ferreira; de Souza, Edinilsa Ramos; de Lima, Maria Luiza Lopes Timóteo; Barreira, Alice Kelly

    2009-01-01

    This paper aims to analyze the rehabilitation services in Recife, Brazil, confronting it with what the National Policy for Decreasing Morbimortality from Accidents and Violence (NPDMAV) professes. Six units of rehabilitation services were analyzed; five were from municipal administration and the other was an ONG on an agreement with SUS. A partial structured interview was conducted with the person in charge for the Attention to the Disable Person's Health aiming to map the network. Also a questionnaire was applied to the managers of the six services aiming to identify the unit and its activities, structure and organization. The Rehabilitation Assistance network in Recife do not meet the NPDMAV guidelines as it presents: decreased number of services/programs; lack of a multidisciplinary team; lack of technological support; deficient joint intra and inter sectors; little interaction between the victim and his family to reinsertion into family and social life; and still incipient prevention and promotion actions. In conclusion, there is an effort to adequate the actions to this population group; however there are relevant covering deficits of people, equipments, information and articulation registers among the various levels of this health network. PMID:19851594

  9. Markov Model of Severe Accident Progression and Management

    SciTech Connect

    Bari, R.A.; Cheng, L.; Cuadra,A.; Ginsberg,T.; Lehner,J.; Martinez-Guridi,G.; Mubayi,V.; Pratt,W.T.; Yue, M.

    2012-06-25

    The earthquake and tsunami that hit the nuclear power plants at the Fukushima Daiichi site in March 2011 led to extensive fuel damage, including possible fuel melting, slumping, and relocation at the affected reactors. A so-called feed-and-bleed mode of reactor cooling was initially established to remove decay heat. The plan was to eventually switch over to a recirculation cooling system. Failure of feed and bleed was a possibility during the interim period. Furthermore, even if recirculation was established, there was a possibility of its subsequent failure. Decay heat has to be sufficiently removed to prevent further core degradation. To understand the possible evolution of the accident conditions and to have a tool for potential future hypothetical evaluations of accidents at other nuclear facilities, a Markov model of the state of the reactors was constructed in the immediate aftermath of the accident and was executed under different assumptions of potential future challenges. This work was performed at the request of the U.S. Department of Energy to explore 'what-if' scenarios in the immediate aftermath of the accident. The work began in mid-March and continued until mid-May 2011. The analysis had the following goals: (1) To provide an overall framework for describing possible future states of the damaged reactors; (2) To permit an impact analysis of 'what-if' scenarios that could lead to more severe outcomes; (3) To determine approximate probabilities of alternative end-states under various assumptions about failure and repair times of cooling systems; (4) To infer the reliability requirements of closed loop cooling systems needed to achieve stable core end-states and (5) To establish the importance for the results of the various cooling system and physical phenomenological parameters via sensitivity calculations.

  10. Shipping container response to severe highway and railway accident conditions: Appendices

    SciTech Connect

    Fischer, L.E.; Chou, C.K.; Gerhard, M.A.; Kimura, C.Y.; Martin, R.W.; Mensing, R.W.; Mount, M.E.; Witte, M.C.

    1987-02-01

    Volume 2 contains the following appendices: Severe accident data; truck accident data; railroad accident data; highway survey data and bridge column properties; structural analysis; thermal analysis; probability estimation techniques; and benchmarking for computer codes used in impact analysis. (LN)

  11. Spatiotemporal Analysis for Wildlife-Vehicle Based on Accident Statistics of the County Straubing-Bogen in Lower Bavaria

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pagany, R.; Dorner, W.

    2016-06-01

    During the last years the numbers of wildlife-vehicle-collisions (WVC) in Bavaria increased considerably. Despite the statistical registration of WVC and preventive measures at areas of risk along the roads, the number of such accidents could not be contained. Using geospatial analysis on WVC data of the last five years for county Straubing-Bogen, Bavaria, a small-scale methodology was found to analyse the risk of WVC along the roads in the investigated area. Various indicators were examined, which may be related to WVC. The risk depends on the time of the day and year which shows correlations in turn to the traffic density and wildlife population. Additionally the location of the collision depends on the species and on different environmental parameters. Accidents seem to correlate with the land use left and right of the street. Land use data and current vegetation were derived from remote sensing data, providing information of the general land use, also considering the vegetation period. For this a number of hot spots was selected to identify potential dependencies between land use, vegetation and season. First results from these hotspots show, that WVCs do not only depend on land use, but may show a correlation with the vegetation period. With regard to agriculture and seasonal as well as annual changes this indicates that warnings will fail due to their static character in contrast to the dynamic situation of land use and resulting risk for WVCs. This shows that there is a demand for remote sensing data with a high spatial and temporal resolution as well as a methodology to derive WVC warnings considering land use and vegetation. With remote sensing data, it could become possible to classify land use and calculate risk levels for WVC. Additional parameters, derived from remote sensed data that could be considered are relief and crops as well as other parameters such as ponds, natural and infrastructural barriers that could be related to animal behaviour and

  12. ADAPT (Analysis of Dynamic Accident Progression Trees) Beta Version 0.9

    2010-01-07

    The purpose of the ADAPT code is to generate Dynamic Event Trees (DET) using a user specified simulator. ADAPT can utilize any simulation tool which meets a minimal set of requirements. ADAPT is based on the concept of DET which use explicit modeling of the deterministic dynamic processes that take place during a nuclear reactor plant system evolution along with stochastic modeling. When DET are used to model different aspects of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA),more » all accident progression scenarios starting from an initiating event are considered simultaneously. The DET branching occurs at user specified times and/or when an action is required by the system and/or the operator. These outcomes then decide how the dynamic system variables will evolve in time for each DET branch. Since two different outcomes at a DET branching may lead to completely different paths for system evolution, the next branching for these paths may occur not only at different times, but can be based on different branching criteria. The computational infrastructure allows for flexibility in ADAPT to link with different system simulation codes, parallel processing of the scenarios under consideration, on-line scenario management (initiation as well as termination) and user friendly graphical capabilities. The ADAPT system is designed for a distributed computing environment; the scheduler can track multiple concurrent branches simultaneously. The scheduler is modularized so that the DET branching strategy can be modified (e.g. biasing towards the worse case scenario/event). Independent database systems store data from the simulation tasks and the DET structure so that the event tree can be constructed and analyzed later. ADAPT is provided with a user-friendly client which can easily sort through and display the results of an experiment, precluding the need for the user to manually inspect individual simulator runs.« less

  13. Radiation accidents

    SciTech Connect

    Saenger, E.L.

    1986-09-01

    It is essential that emergency physicians understand ways to manage patients contaminated by radioactive materials and/or exposed to external radiation sources. Contamination accidents require careful surveys to identify the metabolic pathway of the radionuclides to guide prognosis and treatment. The level of treatment required will depend on careful surveys and meticulous decontamination. There is no specific therapy for the acute radiation syndrome. Prophylactic antibodies are desirable. For severely exposed patients treatment is similar to the supportive care given to patients undergoing organ transplantation. For high-dose extremity injury, no methods have been developed to reverse the fibrosing endarteritis that eventually leads to tissue death so frequently found with this type of injury. Although the Three Mile Island episode of March 1979 created tremendous public concern, there were no radiation injuries. The contamination outside the reactor building and the release of radioiodine were negligible. The accidental fuel element meltdown at Chernobyl, USSR, resulted in many cases of acute radiation syndrome. More than 100,000 people were exposed to high levels of radioactive fallout. The general principles outlined here are applicable to accidents of that degree of severity.

  14. Radiation accidents.

    PubMed

    Saenger, E L

    1986-09-01

    It is essential that emergency physicians understand ways to manage patients contaminated by radioactive materials and/or exposed to external radiation sources. Contamination accidents require careful surveys to identify the metabolic pathway of the radionuclides to guide prognosis and treatment. The level of treatment required will depend on careful surveys and meticulous decontamination. There is no specific therapy for the acute radiation syndrome. Prophylactic antibodies are desirable. For severely exposed patients treatment is similar to the supportive care given to patients undergoing organ transplantation. For high-dose extremity injury, no methods have been developed to reverse the fibrosing endarteritis that eventually leads to tissue death so frequently found with this type of injury. Although the Three Mile Island episode of March 1979 created tremendous public concern, there were no radiation injuries. The contamination outside the reactor building and the release of radioiodine were negligible. The accidental fuel element meltdown at Chernobyl, USSR, resulted in many cases of acute radiation syndrome. More than 100,000 people were exposed to high levels of radioactive fallout. The general principles outlined here are applicable to accidents of that degree of severity. PMID:3526994

  15. Hidden assumptions in environmental research.

    PubMed

    Guidotti, T L

    1992-10-01

    A major challenge in both the design of epidemiologic studies of exposure to toxic agents and the interpretation of the findings is to recognize and to accommodate the complex biologic assumptions that underlie population-based research. Environmental health research is grounded on a scientific foundation that blends toxicology with epidemiology. Toxicology without human population studies often leads to findings uninterpretable for purposes of risk assessment. Epidemiologic studies are often less helpful than they could be because the variation in response is seldom addressed, the effects under study are often small in magnitude and easily confounded, and exposure estimates are crude. The net bias is to reduce the risk estimate, perhaps substantially. Biological variation has usually been treated as "noise" in the system but it is a more basic problem that lends itself to investigation and quantification. Improved modeling of the biological determinants of response is needed if results are to be generalizable and interpretable in mechanistic terms.

  16. Faulty assumptions for repository requirements

    SciTech Connect

    Sutcliffe, W G

    1999-06-03

    Long term performance requirements for a geologic repository for spent nuclear fuel and high-level waste are based on assumptions concerning water use and subsequent deaths from cancer due to ingesting water contaminated with radio isotopes ten thousand years in the future. This paper argues that the assumptions underlying these requirements are faulty for a number of reasons. First, in light of the inevitable technological progress, including efficient desalination of water, over the next ten thousand years, it is inconceivable that a future society would drill for water near a repository. Second, even today we would not use water without testing its purity. Third, today many types of cancer are curable, and with the rapid progress in medical technology in general, and the prevention and treatment of cancer in particular, it is improbable that cancer caused by ingesting contaminated water will be a sign&ant killer in the far future. This paper reviews the performance requirements for geological repositories and comments on the difficulties in proving compliance in the face of inherent uncertainties. The already tiny long-term risk posed by a geologic repository is presented and contrasted with contemporary every day risks. A number of examples of technological progress, including cancer treatments, are advanced. The real and significant costs resulting from the overly conservative requirements are then assessed. Examples are given of how money (and political capital) could be put to much better use to save lives today and in the future. It is concluded that although a repository represents essentially no long-term risk, monitored retrievable dry storage (above or below ground) is the current best alternative for spent fuel and high-level nuclear waste.

  17. Assumptions of the QALY procedure.

    PubMed

    Carr-Hill, R A

    1989-01-01

    The Quality Adjusted Life Year (QALY) has been proposed as a useful index for those managing the provision of health care because it enables the decision-maker to compare the 'value' of different health care programmes and in a way which, potentially at least, reflects social preferences about the appropriate pattern of provision. The index depends on a combination of a measure of morbidity and the risk of mortality. Methodological debate has tended to concentrate on the technicalities of producing a scale of health; and philosophical argument has concentrated on the ethics of interpersonal comparison. There is little recognition of the fragility of the theoretical assumptions underpinning the proposed combination of morbidity and risk of mortality. The context in which the proposed indices are being developed is examined in Section 2. Whilst most working in the field of health measurement eschew over-simplification, it is clear that the application of micro-economics to management is greatly facilitated if a single index can be agreed. The various approaches to combining morbidity and mortality are described in Section 3. The crucial assumptions concern the measurement and valuation of morbidity; the procedures used for scaling morbidity with mortality; and the role of risk. The nature of the valuations involved are examined in Section 4. It seems unlikely that they could ever be widely acceptable; the combination with death and perfect health poses particular problems; and aggregation across individuals compounds the problem. There are also several technical difficulties of scaling and of allowing for risk which have been discussed elsewhere and so are only considered briefly in Section 5 of this paper.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS) PMID:2762872

  18. Accident analysis for transuranic waste management alternatives in the U.S. Department of Energy waste management program

    SciTech Connect

    Nabelssi, B.; Mueller, C.; Roglans-Ribas, J.; Folga, S.; Tompkins, M.; Jackson, R.

    1995-03-01

    Preliminary accident analyses and radiological source term evaluations have been conducted for transuranic waste (TRUW) as part of the US Department of Energy (DOE) effort to manage storage, treatment, and disposal of radioactive wastes at its various sites. The approach to assessing radiological releases from facility accidents was developed in support of the Office of Environmental Management Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (EM PEIS). The methodology developed in this work is in accordance with the latest DOE guidelines, which consider the spectrum of possible accident scenarios in the implementation of various actions evaluated in an EIS. The radiological releases from potential risk-dominant accidents in storage and treatment facilities considered in the EM PEIS TRUW alternatives are described in this paper. The results show that significant releases can be predicted for only the most severe and extremely improbable accidents sequences.

  19. Supplemental analysis of accident sequences and source terms for waste treatment and storage operations and related facilities for the US Department of Energy waste management programmatic environmental impact statement

    SciTech Connect

    Folga, S.; Mueller, C.; Nabelssi, B.; Kohout, E.; Mishima, J.

    1996-12-01

    This report presents supplemental information for the document Analysis of Accident Sequences and Source Terms at Waste Treatment, Storage, and Disposal Facilities for Waste Generated by US Department of Energy Waste Management Operations. Additional technical support information is supplied concerning treatment of transuranic waste by incineration and considering the Alternative Organic Treatment option for low-level mixed waste. The latest respirable airborne release fraction values published by the US Department of Energy for use in accident analysis have been used and are included as Appendix D, where respirable airborne release fraction is defined as the fraction of material exposed to accident stresses that could become airborne as a result of the accident. A set of dominant waste treatment processes and accident scenarios was selected for a screening-process analysis. A subset of results (release source terms) from this analysis is presented.

  20. Occupancy estimation and the closure assumption

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rota, Christopher T.; Fletcher, Robert J.; Dorazio, Robert M.; Betts, Matthew G.

    2009-01-01

    1. Recent advances in occupancy estimation that adjust for imperfect detection have provided substantial improvements over traditional approaches and are receiving considerable use in applied ecology. To estimate and adjust for detectability, occupancy modelling requires multiple surveys at a site and requires the assumption of 'closure' between surveys, i.e. no changes in occupancy between surveys. Violations of this assumption could bias parameter estimates; however, little work has assessed model sensitivity to violations of this assumption or how commonly such violations occur in nature. 2. We apply a modelling procedure that can test for closure to two avian point-count data sets in Montana and New Hampshire, USA, that exemplify time-scales at which closure is often assumed. These data sets illustrate different sampling designs that allow testing for closure but are currently rarely employed in field investigations. Using a simulation study, we then evaluate the sensitivity of parameter estimates to changes in site occupancy and evaluate a power analysis developed for sampling designs that is aimed at limiting the likelihood of closure. 3. Application of our approach to point-count data indicates that habitats may frequently be open to changes in site occupancy at time-scales typical of many occupancy investigations, with 71% and 100% of species investigated in Montana and New Hampshire respectively, showing violation of closure across time periods of 3 weeks and 8 days respectively. 4. Simulations suggest that models assuming closure are sensitive to changes in occupancy. Power analyses further suggest that the modelling procedure we apply can effectively test for closure. 5. Synthesis and applications. Our demonstration that sites may be open to changes in site occupancy over time-scales typical of many occupancy investigations, combined with the sensitivity of models to violations of the closure assumption, highlights the importance of properly addressing

  1. Oranges and Peaches: Understanding Communication Accidents in the Reference Interview.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dewdney, Patricia; Michell, Gillian

    1996-01-01

    Librarians often have communication "accidents" with reference questions as initially presented. This article presents linguistic analysis of query categories, including: simple failures of hearing, accidents involving pronunciation or homophones, accidents where users repeat earlier misinterpretations to librarians, and accidents where users…

  2. Health effects model for nuclear power plant accident consequence analysis. Part I. Introduction, integration, and summary. Part II. Scientific basis for health effects models

    SciTech Connect

    Evans, J.S.; Moeller, D.W.; Cooper, D.W.

    1985-07-01

    Analysis of the radiological health effects of nuclear power plant accidents requires models for predicting early health effects, cancers and benign thyroid nodules, and genetic effects. Since the publication of the Reactor Safety Study, additional information on radiological health effects has become available. This report summarizes the efforts of a program designed to provide revised health effects models for nuclear power plant accident consequence modeling. The new models for early effects address four causes of mortality and nine categories of morbidity. The models for early effects are based upon two parameter Weibull functions. They permit evaluation of the influence of dose protraction and address the issue of variation in radiosensitivity among the population. The piecewise-linear dose-response models used in the Reactor Safety Study to predict cancers and thyroid nodules have been replaced by linear and linear-quadratic models. The new models reflect the most recently reported results of the follow-up of the survivors of the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki and permit analysis of both morbidity and mortality. The new models for genetic effects allow prediction of genetic risks in each of the first five generations after an accident and include information on the relative severity of various classes of genetic effects. The uncertainty in modeloling radiological health risks is addressed by providing central, upper, and lower estimates of risks. An approach is outlined for summarizing the health consequences of nuclear power plant accidents. 298 refs., 9 figs., 49 tabs.

  3. When it comes to lifestyle recommendations, more is sometimes less: a meta-analysis of theoretical assumptions underlying the effectiveness of interventions promoting multiple behavior domain change.

    PubMed

    Wilson, Kristina; Senay, Ibrahim; Durantini, Marta; Sánchez, Flor; Hennessy, Michael; Spring, Bonnie; Albarracín, Dolores

    2015-03-01

    A meta-analysis of 150 research reports summarizing the results of multiple behavior domain interventions examined theoretical predictions about the effects of the included number of recommendations on behavioral and clinical change in the domains of smoking, diet, and physical activity. The meta-analysis yielded 3 main conclusions. First, there is a curvilinear relation between the number of behavioral recommendations and improvements in behavioral and clinical measures, with a moderate number of recommendations producing the highest level of change. A moderate number of recommendations is likely to be associated with stronger effects because the intervention ensures the necessary level of motivation to implement the recommended changes, thereby increasing compliance with the goals set by the intervention, without making the intervention excessively demanding. Second, this curve was more pronounced when samples were likely to have low motivation to change, such as when interventions were delivered to nonpatient (vs. patient) populations, were implemented in nonclinic (vs. clinic) settings, used lay community (vs. expert) facilitators, and involved group (vs. individual) delivery formats. Finally, change in behavioral outcomes mediated the effects of number of recommended behaviors on clinical change. These findings provide important insights that can help guide the design of effective multiple behavior domain interventions.

  4. When It Comes to Lifestyle Recommendations, More is Sometimes Less: A Meta-Analysis of Theoretical Assumptions Underlying the Effectiveness of Interventions Promoting Multiple Behavior Domain Change

    PubMed Central

    Wilson, Kristina; Senay, Ibrahim; Durantini, Marta; Sánchez, Flor; Hennessy, Michael; Spring, Bonnie; Albarracín, Dolores

    2016-01-01

    A meta-analysis of 150 research reports summarizing the results of multiple behavior domain interventions examined theoretical predictions about the effects of the included number of recommendations on behavioral and clinical change in the domains of smoking, diet, and physical activity. The meta-analysis yielded three main conclusions. First, there is a curvilinear relation between the number of behavioral recommendations and improvements in behavioral and clinical measures, with a moderate number of recommendations producing the highest level of change. A moderate number of recommendations is likely to be associated with stronger effects because the intervention ensures the necessary level of motivation to implement the recommended changes, thereby increasing compliance with the goals set by the intervention, without making the intervention excessively demanding. Second, this curve was more pronounced when samples were likely to have low motivation to change, such as when interventions were delivered to non-patient (vs. patient) populations, were implemented in non-clinic (vs. clinic) settings, used lay community (vs. expert) facilitators, and involved group (vs. individual) delivery formats. Finally, change in behavioral outcomes mediated the effects of number of recommended behaviors on clinical change. These findings provide important insights that can help guide the design of effective multiple behavior domain interventions. PMID:25528345

  5. Safety and Response-Time Analysis of an Automotive Accident Assistance Service

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Argent-Katwala, Ashok; Clark, Allan; Foster, Howard; Gilmore, Stephen; Mayer, Philip; Tribastone, Mirco

    In the present paper we assess both the safety properties and the response-time profile of a subscription service which provides medical assistance to drivers who are injured in vehicular collisions. We use both timed and untimed process calculi cooperatively to perform the required analysis. The formal analysis tools used are hosted on a high-level modelling platform with support for scripting and orchestration which enables users to build custom analysis processes from the general-purpose analysers which are hosted as services on the platform.

  6. A Laser Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy application based on Local Thermodynamic Equilibrium assumption for the elemental analysis of alexandrite gemstone and copper-based alloys

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    De Giacomo, A.; Dell'Aglio, M.; Gaudiuso, R.; Santagata, A.; Senesi, G. S.; Rossi, M.; Ghiara, M. R.; Capitelli, F.; De Pascale, O.

    2012-04-01

    Laser Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy (LIBS) is an appealing technique to study laser-induced plasmas (LIPs), both from the basic diagnostics point of view and for analytical applications. LIPs are complex dynamic systems, expanding at supersonic velocities and undergoing a transition between different plasma regimes. If the Local Thermodynamic Equilibrium (LTE) condition is valid for such plasmas, several analytical methods can be employed and fast quantitative analyses can be performed on a variety of samples. In the present paper, a discussion about LTE is carried out and an innovative application to the analysis of the alexandrite gemstone is presented. In addition, a study about the influence of plasma parameters on the performance of LTE-based methods is reported for bronze and brass targets.

  7. Characteristic variation and original analysis of emergent water source pollution accidents in China between 1985 and 2013.

    PubMed

    Qu, Jianhua; Meng, Xianlin; Ye, Xiuqing; You, Hong

    2016-10-01

    China has suffered various water source pollution incidents in the past decades, which have resulted in severe threats to the safety of the water supply for millions of residents. From the aspects of quantity fluctuation, temporal volatility, regional inequality, pollutant category variation, and accident type differences, this study first characterizes the current status of water source contaminations in China by analyzing 340 pollution events for the period spanning from 1985 to 2013. The results show a general increase in the number of accidents during the period 1985-2006 and then a rapid decline starting in 2007. Spring and summer are high-incidence seasons for pollution, and the accident rate in developed southeastern coastal areas is far higher than that in the northwestern regions. Hazardous chemicals and petroleum are the most frequently occurring pollutants, whereas heavy metals and tailings are becoming emerging contaminants during occasional pollutions. Most of the accidents that occurred before 2005 were blamed on illegal emissions or traffic accidents; however, leakage in production has gradually become a major accident type in the past decade. Then, in combination with government actions and policy constraints, this paper explores the deep inducements and offers valuable insight into measures that should be taken to ensure future prevention and mitigation of emergent source water pollution.

  8. Analysis of Sodium Fire in the Containment Building of Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor Under the Scenario of Core Disruptive Accident

    SciTech Connect

    Rao, P.M.; Kasinathan, N.; Kannan, S.E.

    2006-07-01

    The potential for sodium release to reactor containment building from reactor assembly during Core Disruptive Accident (CDA) in Fast Breeder Reactors (FBR) is an important safety issue with reference to the structural integrity of Reactor Containment Building (RCB). For Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor (PFBR), the estimated sodium release under a CDA of 100 MJ energy release is 350 kg. The ejected sodium reacts easily with air in RCB and causes temperature and pressure rise in the RCB. For estimating the severe thermal consequences in RCB, different modes of sodium fires like pool and spray fires were analyzed by using SOFIRE -- II and NACOM sodium fire computer codes. Effects of important parameters like amount of sodium, area of pool, containment air volume and oxygen concentration have been investigated. A peak pressure rise of 7.32 kPa is predicted by SOFIRE II code for 350 kg sodium pool fire in 86,000 m{sup 3} RCB volume. Under sodium release as spray followed by unburnt sodium as pool fire mode analysis, the estimated pressure rise is 5.85 kPa in the RCB. In the mode of instantaneous combustion of sodium, the estimated peak pressure rise is 13 kPa. (authors)

  9. Temporal uncertainty analysis of human errors based on interrelationships among multiple factors: a case of Minuteman III missile accident.

    PubMed

    Rong, Hao; Tian, Jin; Zhao, Tingdi

    2016-01-01

    In traditional approaches of human reliability assessment (HRA), the definition of the error producing conditions (EPCs) and the supporting guidance are such that some of the conditions (especially organizational or managerial conditions) can hardly be included, and thus the analysis is burdened with incomprehensiveness without reflecting the temporal trend of human reliability. A method based on system dynamics (SD), which highlights interrelationships among technical and organizational aspects that may contribute to human errors, is presented to facilitate quantitatively estimating the human error probability (HEP) and its related variables changing over time in a long period. Taking the Minuteman III missile accident in 2008 as a case, the proposed HRA method is applied to assess HEP during missile operations over 50 years by analyzing the interactions among the variables involved in human-related risks; also the critical factors are determined in terms of impact that the variables have on risks in different time periods. It is indicated that both technical and organizational aspects should be focused on to minimize human errors in a long run. PMID:26360211

  10. Temporal uncertainty analysis of human errors based on interrelationships among multiple factors: a case of Minuteman III missile accident.

    PubMed

    Rong, Hao; Tian, Jin; Zhao, Tingdi

    2016-01-01

    In traditional approaches of human reliability assessment (HRA), the definition of the error producing conditions (EPCs) and the supporting guidance are such that some of the conditions (especially organizational or managerial conditions) can hardly be included, and thus the analysis is burdened with incomprehensiveness without reflecting the temporal trend of human reliability. A method based on system dynamics (SD), which highlights interrelationships among technical and organizational aspects that may contribute to human errors, is presented to facilitate quantitatively estimating the human error probability (HEP) and its related variables changing over time in a long period. Taking the Minuteman III missile accident in 2008 as a case, the proposed HRA method is applied to assess HEP during missile operations over 50 years by analyzing the interactions among the variables involved in human-related risks; also the critical factors are determined in terms of impact that the variables have on risks in different time periods. It is indicated that both technical and organizational aspects should be focused on to minimize human errors in a long run.

  11. TRUMP-BD: A computer code for the analysis of nuclear fuel assemblies under severe accident conditions

    SciTech Connect

    Lombardo, N.J.; Marseille, T.J.; White, M.D.; Lowery, P.S.

    1990-06-01

    TRUMP-BD (Boil Down) is an extension of the TRUMP (Edwards 1972) computer program for the analysis of nuclear fuel assemblies under severe accident conditions. This extension allows prediction of the heat transfer rates, metal-water oxidation rates, fission product release rates, steam generation and consumption rates, and temperature distributions for nuclear fuel assemblies under core uncovery conditions. The heat transfer processes include conduction in solid structures, convection across fluid-solid boundaries, and radiation between interacting surfaces. Metal-water reaction kinetics are modeled with empirical relationships to predict the oxidation rates of steam-exposed Zircaloy and uranium metal. The metal-water oxidation models are parabolic in form with an Arrhenius temperature dependence. Uranium oxidation begins when fuel cladding failure occurs; Zircaloy oxidation occurs continuously at temperatures above 13000{degree}F when metal and steam are available. From the metal-water reactions, the hydrogen generation rate, total hydrogen release, and temporal and spatial distribution of oxide formations are computed. Consumption of steam from the oxidation reactions and the effect of hydrogen on the coolant properties is modeled for independent coolant flow channels. Fission product release from exposed uranium metal Zircaloy-clad fuel is modeled using empirical time and temperature relationships that consider the release to be subject to oxidation and volitization/diffusion ( bake-out'') release mechanisms. Release of the volatile species of iodine (I), tellurium (Te), cesium (Ce), ruthenium (Ru), strontium (Sr), zirconium (Zr), cerium (Cr), and barium (Ba) from uranium metal fuel may be modeled.

  12. [All traffic related deaths are not "fatalities"--analysis of the official Swedish statistics of traffic accident fatalities in 1999].

    PubMed

    Ahlm, K; Eriksson, A; Lekander, T; Björnstig, U

    2001-04-25

    In 1997 the Swedish Parliament decided, in accordance with the so-called Vision Zero, that one official goal for the national traffic safety effort is that the number of traffic fatalities in the year 2007 must not exceed 270. In order to monitor efforts toward this hard-won goal, it is of course of utmost importance that official statistics on traffic deaths are reliable. In a meticulous analysis of all 580 officially registered traffic deaths in Sweden in 1999, we found that 490 were true accidental deaths, while 18 were suicides, 12 were deaths due to indeterminate causes, 59 were natural deaths and 1 case was not possible to evaluate due to missing data. Thus, only 84% of the officially registered "accidental traffic deaths" were bona fide accidents. In order to enhance the reliability of the official statistics, we suggest that regulations concerning police investigation and medicolegal autopsy of all unnatural deaths be adhered to all deaths reported to the Swedish National Road Administration should be checked in the database of autopsied cases in the National Board of Forensic Medicine in order to exclude natural deaths the time delay (1.5 years) to complete the official Cause-of-Death Register be shortened criteria for the classification of manner of death in "borderline" cases be suggested for international acceptance.

  13. Kinetics Parameters of VVER-1000 Core with 3 MOX Lead Test Assemblies To Be Used for Accident Analysis Codes

    SciTech Connect

    Pavlovitchev, A.M.

    2000-03-08

    The present work is a part of Joint U.S./Russian Project with Weapons-Grade Plutonium Disposition in VVER Reactor and presents the neutronics calculations of kinetics parameters of VVER-1000 core with 3 introduced MOX LTAs. MOX LTA design has been studied in [1] for two options of MOX LTA: 100% plutonium and of ''island'' type. As a result, zoning i.e. fissile plutonium enrichments in different plutonium zones, has been defined. VVER-1000 core with 3 introduced MOX LTAs of chosen design has been calculated in [2]. In present work, the neutronics data for transient analysis codes (RELAP [3]) has been obtained using the codes chain of RRC ''Kurchatov Institute'' [5] that is to be used for exploitation neutronics calculations of VVER. Nowadays the 3D assembly-by-assembly code BIPR-7A and 2D pin-by-pin code PERMAK-A, both with the neutronics constants prepared by the cell code TVS-M, are the base elements of this chain. It should be reminded that in [6] TVS-M was used only for the constants calculations of MOX FAs. In current calculations the code TVS-M has been used both for UOX and MOX fuel constants. Besides, the volume of presented information has been increased and additional explications have been included. The results for the reference uranium core [4] are presented in Chapter 2. The results for the core with 3 MOX LTAs are presented in Chapter 3. The conservatism that is connected with neutronics parameters and that must be taken into account during transient analysis calculations, is discussed in Chapter 4. The conservative parameters values are considered to be used in 1-point core kinetics models of accident analysis codes.

  14. Preliminary Accident Analysis for Construction and Operation of the Chornobyl New Safety Confinement

    SciTech Connect

    Batiy, Valeriy; Rubezhansky, Yruiy; Rudko, Vladimir; shcherbin, vladimir; Yegorov, V; Schmieman, Eric A.; Timmins, Douglas C.

    2005-08-08

    Analysis of potential exposure of personal and population during construction and exploitation of the New Safe Confinement was made. Scenarios of hazard event development were ranked. It is shown, that as a whole construction and exploitation of the NSC are in accordance with actual radiation safety norms of Ukraine.

  15. TRAC-BF1/MOD1: An advanced best-estimate computer program for BWR accident analysis, Model description. Volume 1

    SciTech Connect

    Borkowski, J.A.; Wade, N.L.; Giles, M.M.; Rouhani, S.Z.; Shumway, R.W.; Singer, G.L.; Taylor, D.D.; Weaver, W.L.

    1992-08-01

    The TRAC-BWR code development program at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory has developed versions of the Transient Reactor Analysis Code (TRAC) for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the public. The TRAC-BF1/MODl version of the computer code provides a best-estimate analysis capability for analyzing the full range of postulated accidents in boiling water reactor (BWR) systems and related facilities. This version provides a consistent and unified analysis capability for analyzing all areas of a large- or small-break loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA), beginning with the blowdown phase and continuing through heatup, reflood with quenching, and, finally, the refill phase of the accident. Also provided is a basic capability for the analysis of operational transients up to and including anticipated transients without scram (ATWS). The TRAC-BF1/MODI version produces results consistent with previous versions. Assessment calculations using the two TRAC-BF1 versions show overall improvements in agreement with data and computation times as compared to earlier versions of the TRAC-BWR series of computer codes.

  16. TRAC-BF1/MOD1: An advanced best-estimate computer program for BWR accident analysis: User`s guide. Volume 2

    SciTech Connect

    Rettig, W.H.; Wade, N.L.

    1992-06-01

    The TRAC-BWR code development program at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory has developed versions of the Transient Reactor Analysis Code (TRAC) for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the public. The TRAC-BF1/MODI version of the computer code provides a best-estimate analysis capability for analyzing the full range of postulated accidents in boiling water reactor (BWR) systems and related facilities. This version provides a consistent and unified analysis capability for analyzing all areas of a large- or small-break loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA), beginning with the blowdown phase and continuing through heatup, reflood with quenching, and, finally, the refill phase of the accident. Also provided is a basic capability for the analysis of operational transients up to and including anticipated transients without scram (ATWS). The TRAC-BF1/MOD1 version produces results consistent with previous versions. Assessment calculations using the two TRAC-BFI versions show overall improvements in agreement with data and computation times as compared to earlier versions of the TRAC-BWR series of computer codes.

  17. Assumptions for fault tolerant quantum computing

    SciTech Connect

    Knill, E.; Laflamme, R.

    1996-06-01

    Assumptions useful for fault tolerant quantum computing are stated and briefly discussed. We focus on assumptions related to properties of the computational system. The strongest form of the assumptions seems to be sufficient for achieving highly fault tolerant quantum computation. We discuss weakenings which are also likely to suffice.

  18. Analysis of fission product revaporization in a BWR reactor cooling system during a station blackout accident

    SciTech Connect

    Yang, J.W.; Schmidt, E.; Cazzoli, E.; Khatib-Rahbar, M.

    1988-01-01

    This report presents a preliminary analysis of fission product revaporization in the Reactor Cooling System (RCS) after the vessel failure. The station blackout transient for BWR Mark I Power Plant is considered. The TRAPMELT3 models of evaporization, chemisorption, and the decay heating of RCS structures and gases are adopted in the analysis. The RCS flow models based on the density-difference between the RCS and containment pedestal region are developed to estimate the RCS outflow which carries the revaporized fission product to the containment. A computer code called REVAP is developed for the analysis. The REVAP is incorporated with the MARCH, TRAPMELT3 and NAUA codes of the Source Term Code Pack Package (STCP). The NAUA code is used to estimate the impact of revaporization on environmental release. The results show that the thermal-hydraulic conditions between the RCS and the pedestal region are important factors determining the magnitude of revaporization and subsequent release of the volatile fission product. 8 figs., 1 tab.

  19. A working man`s analysis of incidents and accidents with explosives at the Los Alamos National Laboratory, 1946--1997

    SciTech Connect

    Ramsay, J.B.; Goldie, R.H.

    1998-12-31

    At the inception of the Laboratory hectic and intense work was the norm during the development of the atomic bombs. After the war the development of other weapons for the Cold War again contributed to an intense work environment. Formal Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) were not required at that time. However, the occurrence of six fatalities in 1959 during the development of a new high-energy plastic bonded explosive (94% HMX) forced the introduction SOPs. After an accident at the Department of Energy (DOE) plant at Amarillo, TX in 1977, the DOE promulgated the Department wide DOE Explosives Safety Manual. Table 1 outlines the history of the introduction of SOPs and the DOE Explosives Safety Manual. Many of the rules and guidelines presented in these documents were developed and introduced as the result of an incident or accident. However, many of the current staff are not familiar with the background of the development. To preserve as much of this knowledge as possible, they are collecting documentation on incidents and accidents involving energetic materials at Los Alamos. Formal investigations of serious accidents elucidate the multiple causes that contributed to accidents. These reports are generally buried in a file and, and are not read by more recent workers. Reports involving fatalities at Los Alamos before 1974 were withheld from the general employee. Also, these documents contain much detail and analysis that is not of interest to the field worker. The authors have collected the documents describing 116 incidents and have analyzed the contributing factors as viewed from the standpoint of the individual operator. All the incidents occurred at the Los Alamos National Laboratory and involved energetic materials in some manner, though not all occurred within the explosive handling groups. Most accidents are caused by multiple contributing factors. They have attempted to select the one or two factors that they consider as the most important relative to the

  20. Critical assumptions: thinking critically about critical thinking.

    PubMed

    Riddell, Thelma

    2007-03-01

    The concept of critical thinking has been featured in nursing literature for the past 20 years. It has been described but not defined by both the American Association of Colleges of Nursing and the National League for Nursing, although their corresponding accreditation bodies require that critical thinking be included in nursing curricula. In addition, there is no reliable or valid measurement tool for critical thinking ability in nursing. As a result, there is a lack of research support for the assumptions that critical thinking can be learned and that critical thinking ability improves clinical competence. Brookfield suggested that commitments should be made only after a period of critically reflective analysis, during which the congruence between perceptions and reality are examined. In an evidence-based practice profession, we, as nurse educators, need to ask ourselves how we can defend our assumptions that critical thinking can be learned and that critical thinking improves the quality of nursing practice, especially when there is virtually no consensus on a definition.

  1. Analysis of avalanche risk factors in backcountry terrain based on usage frequency and accident data in Switzerland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Techel, F.; Zweifel, B.; Winkler, K.

    2015-09-01

    Recreational activities in snow-covered mountainous terrain in the backcountry account for the vast majority of avalanche accidents. Studies analyzing avalanche risk mostly rely on accident statistics without considering exposure (or the elements at risk), i.e., how many, when and where people are recreating, as data on recreational activity in the winter mountains are scarce. To fill this gap, we explored volunteered geographic information on two social media mountaineering websites - bergportal.ch and camptocamp.org. Based on these data, we present a spatiotemporal pattern of winter backcountry touring activity in the Swiss Alps and compare this with accident statistics. Geographically, activity was concentrated in Alpine regions relatively close to the main Swiss population centers in the west and north. In contrast, accidents occurred equally often in the less-frequented inner-alpine regions. Weekends, weather and avalanche conditions influenced the number of recreationists, while the odds to be involved in a severe avalanche accident did not depend on weekends or weather conditions. However, the likelihood of being involved in an accident increased with increasing avalanche danger level, but also with a more unfavorable snowpack containing persistent weak layers (also referred to as an old snow problem). In fact, the most critical situation for backcountry recreationists and professionals occurred on days and in regions when both the avalanche danger was critical and when the snowpack contained persistent weak layers. The frequently occurring geographical pattern of a more unfavorable snowpack structure also explains the relatively high proportion of accidents in the less-frequented inner-alpine regions. These results have practical implications: avalanche forecasters should clearly communicate the avalanche danger and the avalanche problem to the backcountry user, particularly if persistent weak layers are of concern. Professionals and recreationists, on the

  2. A probabilistic analysis of a catastrophic transuranic waste hoist accident at the WIPP

    SciTech Connect

    Greenfield, M.A. |; Sargent, T.J. |

    1993-06-01

    This report builds upon the extensive and careful analyses made by the DOE of the probability of failure of the waste hoist, and more particularly on the probability of failure of a major component, the hydraulic brake system. The extensive fault tree analysis prepared by the DOE was the starting point of the present report. A key element of this work is the use of probability distributions rather than so-called point estimates to describe the probability of failure of an element. One of the authors (MAG) developed the expressions for the probability of failure of the brake system. The second author (TJS) executed the calculations of the final expressions for failure probabilities. The authors hope that this work will be of use to the DOE in its evaluation of the safety of the waste hoist, a key element at the WIPP.

  3. Factors Associated with Fatal Occupational Accidents among Mexican Workers: A National Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Gonzalez-Delgado, Mery; Gómez-Dantés, Héctor; Fernández-Niño, Julián Alfredo; Robles, Eduardo; Borja, Víctor H.; Aguilar, Miriam

    2015-01-01

    Objective To identify the factors associated with fatal occupational injuries in Mexico in 2012 among workers affiliated with the Mexican Social Security Institute. Methods Analysis of secondary data using information from the National Occupational Risk Information System, with the consequence of the occupational injury (fatal versus non-fatal) as the response variable. The analysis included 406,222 non-fatal and 1,140 fatal injuries from 2012. The factors associated with the lethality of the injury were identified using a logistic regression model with the Firth approach. Results Being male (OR=5.86; CI95%: 4.22-8.14), age (OR=1.04; CI95%: 1.03-1.06), employed in the position for 1 to 10 years (versus less than 1 year) (OR=1.37; CI95%: 1.15-1.63), working as a facilities or machine operator or assembler (OR: 3.28; CI95%: 2.12- 5.07) and being a worker without qualifications (OR=1.96; CI95%: 1.18-3.24) (versus an office worker) were associated with fatality in the event of an injury. Additionally, companies classified as maximum risk (OR=1.90; CI 95%: 1.38-2.62), workplace conditions (OR=7.15; CI95%: 3.63-14.10) and factors related to the work environment (OR=9.18; CI95%:4.36-19.33) were identified as risk factors for fatality in the event of an occupational injury. Conclusions Fatality in the event of an occupational injury is associated with factors related to sociodemographics (age, sex and occupation), the work environment and workplace conditions. Worker protection policies should be created for groups with a higher risk of fatal occupational injuries in Mexico. PMID:25790063

  4. Accident Fault Trees for Defense Waste Processing Facility

    SciTech Connect

    Sarrack, A.G.

    1999-06-22

    The purpose of this report is to document fault tree analyses which have been completed for the Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) safety analysis. Logic models for equipment failures and human error combinations that could lead to flammable gas explosions in various process tanks, or failure of critical support systems were developed for internal initiating events and for earthquakes. These fault trees provide frequency estimates for support systems failures and accidents that could lead to radioactive and hazardous chemical releases both on-site and off-site. Top event frequency results from these fault trees will be used in further APET analyses to calculate accident risk associated with DWPF facility operations. This report lists and explains important underlying assumptions, provides references for failure data sources, and briefly describes the fault tree method used. Specific commitments from DWPF to provide new procedural/administrative controls or system design changes are listed in the ''Facility Commitments'' section. The purpose of the ''Assumptions'' section is to clarify the basis for fault tree modeling, and is not necessarily a list of items required to be protected by Technical Safety Requirements (TSRs).

  5. Emulation and Sobol' sensitivity analysis of an atmospheric dispersion model applied to the Fukushima nuclear accident

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Girard, Sylvain; Mallet, Vivien; Korsakissok, Irène; Mathieu, Anne

    2016-04-01

    Simulations of the atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides involve large uncertainties originating from the limited knowledge of meteorological input data, composition, amount and timing of emissions, and some model parameters. The estimation of these uncertainties is an essential complement to modeling for decision making in case of an accidental release. We have studied the relative influence of a set of uncertain inputs on several outputs from the Eulerian model Polyphemus/Polair3D on the Fukushima case. We chose to use the variance-based sensitivity analysis method of Sobol'. This method requires a large number of model evaluations which was not achievable directly due to the high computational cost of Polyphemus/Polair3D. To circumvent this issue, we built a mathematical approximation of the model using Gaussian process emulation. We observed that aggregated outputs are mainly driven by the amount of emitted radionuclides, while local outputs are mostly sensitive to wind perturbations. The release height is notably influential, but only in the vicinity of the source. Finally, averaging either spatially or temporally tends to cancel out interactions between uncertain inputs.

  6. Risk assessment of severe accident-induced steam generator tube rupture

    SciTech Connect

    1998-03-01

    This report describes the basis, results, and related risk implications of an analysis performed by an ad hoc working group of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to assess the containment bypass potential attributable to steam generator tube rupture (SGTR) induced by severe accident conditions. The SGTR Severe Accident Working Group, comprised of staff members from the NRC`s Offices of Nuclear Reactor Regulation (NRR) and Nuclear Regulatory Research (RES), undertook the analysis beginning in December 1995 to support a proposed steam generator integrity rule. The work drew upon previous risk and thermal-hydraulic analyses of core damage sequences, with a focus on the Surry plant as a representative example. This analysis yielded new results, however, derived by predicting thermal-hydraulic conditions of selected severe accident scenarios using the SCDAP/RELAP5 computer code, flawed tube failure modeling, and tube failure probability estimates. These results, in terms of containment bypass probability, form the basis for the findings presented in this report. The representative calculation using Surry plant data indicates that some existing plants could be vulnerable to containment bypass resulting from tube failure during severe accidents. To specifically identify the population of plants that may pose a significant bypass risk would require more definitive analysis considering uncertainties in some assumptions and plant- and design-specific variables. 46 refs., 62 figs., 37 tabs.

  7. A study on industrial accident rate forecasting and program development of estimated zero accident time in Korea.

    PubMed

    Kim, Tae-gu; Kang, Young-sig; Lee, Hyung-won

    2011-01-01

    To begin a zero accident campaign for industry, the first thing is to estimate the industrial accident rate and the zero accident time systematically. This paper considers the social and technical change of the business environment after beginning the zero accident campaign through quantitative time series analysis methods. These methods include sum of squared errors (SSE), regression analysis method (RAM), exponential smoothing method (ESM), double exponential smoothing method (DESM), auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, and the proposed analytic function method (AFM). The program is developed to estimate the accident rate, zero accident time and achievement probability of an efficient industrial environment. In this paper, MFC (Microsoft Foundation Class) software of Visual Studio 2008 was used to develop a zero accident program. The results of this paper will provide major information for industrial accident prevention and be an important part of stimulating the zero accident campaign within all industrial environments.

  8. A study on industrial accident rate forecasting and program development of estimated zero accident time in Korea.

    PubMed

    Kim, Tae-gu; Kang, Young-sig; Lee, Hyung-won

    2011-01-01

    To begin a zero accident campaign for industry, the first thing is to estimate the industrial accident rate and the zero accident time systematically. This paper considers the social and technical change of the business environment after beginning the zero accident campaign through quantitative time series analysis methods. These methods include sum of squared errors (SSE), regression analysis method (RAM), exponential smoothing method (ESM), double exponential smoothing method (DESM), auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, and the proposed analytic function method (AFM). The program is developed to estimate the accident rate, zero accident time and achievement probability of an efficient industrial environment. In this paper, MFC (Microsoft Foundation Class) software of Visual Studio 2008 was used to develop a zero accident program. The results of this paper will provide major information for industrial accident prevention and be an important part of stimulating the zero accident campaign within all industrial environments. PMID:20823633

  9. Mitigative techniques and analysis of generic site conditions for ground-water contamination associated with severe accidents

    SciTech Connect

    Shafer, J.M.; Oberlander, P.L.; Skaggs, R.L.

    1984-04-01

    The purpose of this study is to evaluate the feasibility of using ground-water contaminant mitigation techniques to control radionuclide migration following a severe commercial nuclear power reactor accident. The two types of severe commercial reactor accidents investigated are: (1) containment basemat penetration of core melt debris which slowly cools and leaches radionuclides to the subsurface environment, and (2) containment basemat penetration of sump water without full penetration of the core mass. Six generic hydrogeologic site classifications are developed from an evaluation of reported data pertaining to the hydrogeologic properties of all existing and proposed commercial reactor sites. One-dimensional radionuclide transport analyses are conducted on each of the individual reactor sites to determine the generic characteristics of a radionuclide discharge to an accessible environment. Ground-water contaminant mitigation techniques that may be suitable, depending on specific site and accident conditions, for severe power plant accidents are identified and evaluated. Feasible mitigative techniques and associated constraints on feasibility are determined for each of the six hydrogeologic site classifications. The first of three case studies is conducted on a site located on the Texas Gulf Coastal Plain. Mitigative strategies are evaluated for their impact on contaminant transport and results show that the techniques evaluated significantly increased ground-water travel times. 31 references, 118 figures, 62 tables.

  10. World commercial aircraft accidents

    SciTech Connect

    Kimura, C.Y.

    1993-01-01

    This report is a compilation of all accidents world-wide involving aircraft in commercial service which resulted in the loss of the airframe or one or more fatality, or both. This information has been gathered in order to present a complete inventory of commercial aircraft accidents. Events involving military action, sabotage, terrorist bombings, hijackings, suicides, and industrial ground accidents are included within this list. Included are: accidents involving world commercial jet aircraft, world commercial turboprop aircraft, world commercial pistonprop aircraft with four or more engines and world commercial pistonprop aircraft with two or three engines from 1946 to 1992. Each accident is presented with information in the following categories: date of the accident, airline and its flight numbers, type of flight, type of aircraft, aircraft registration number, construction number/manufacturers serial number, aircraft damage, accident flight phase, accident location, number of fatalities, number of occupants, cause, remarks, or description (brief) of the accident, and finally references used. The sixth chapter presents a summary of the world commercial aircraft accidents by major aircraft class (e.g. jet, turboprop, and pistonprop) and by flight phase. The seventh chapter presents several special studies including a list of world commercial aircraft accidents for all aircraft types with 100 or more fatalities in order of decreasing number of fatalities, a list of collision accidents involving commercial aircrafts, and a list of world commercial aircraft accidents for all aircraft types involving military action, sabotage, terrorist bombings, and hijackings.

  11. Analysis of 129I in the soils of Fukushima Prefecture: preliminary reconstruction of 131I deposition related to the accident at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP).

    PubMed

    Muramatsu, Yasuyuki; Matsuzaki, Hiroyuki; Toyama, Chiaki; Ohno, Takeshi

    2015-01-01

    Iodine-131 is one of the most critical radionuclides to be monitored after release from reactor accidents due to the tendency for this nuclide to accumulate in the human thyroid gland. However, there are not enough data related to the reactor accident in Fukushima, Japan to provide regional information on the deposition of this short-lived nuclide (half-life = 8.02 d). In this study we have focused on the long-lived iodine isotope, (129)I (half-life of 1.57 × 10(7) y), and analyzed it by accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) for surface soil samples collected at various locations in Fukushima Prefecture. In order to obtain information on the (131)I/(129)I ratio released from the accident, we have determined (129)I concentrations in 82 soil samples in which (131)I concentrations were previously determined. There was a strong correlation (R(2) = 0.84) between the two nuclides, suggesting that the (131)I levels in soil samples following the accident can be estimated through the analysis of (129)I. We have also examined the possible influence from (129m)Te on (129)I, and found no significant effect. In order to construct a deposition map of (131)I, we determined the (129)I concentrations (Bq/kg) in 388 soil samples collected from different locations in Fukushima Prefecture and the deposition densities (Bq/m(2)) of (131)I were reconstructed from the results. PMID:24930438

  12. Analysis of 129I in the soils of Fukushima Prefecture: preliminary reconstruction of 131I deposition related to the accident at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP).

    PubMed

    Muramatsu, Yasuyuki; Matsuzaki, Hiroyuki; Toyama, Chiaki; Ohno, Takeshi

    2015-01-01

    Iodine-131 is one of the most critical radionuclides to be monitored after release from reactor accidents due to the tendency for this nuclide to accumulate in the human thyroid gland. However, there are not enough data related to the reactor accident in Fukushima, Japan to provide regional information on the deposition of this short-lived nuclide (half-life = 8.02 d). In this study we have focused on the long-lived iodine isotope, (129)I (half-life of 1.57 × 10(7) y), and analyzed it by accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) for surface soil samples collected at various locations in Fukushima Prefecture. In order to obtain information on the (131)I/(129)I ratio released from the accident, we have determined (129)I concentrations in 82 soil samples in which (131)I concentrations were previously determined. There was a strong correlation (R(2) = 0.84) between the two nuclides, suggesting that the (131)I levels in soil samples following the accident can be estimated through the analysis of (129)I. We have also examined the possible influence from (129m)Te on (129)I, and found no significant effect. In order to construct a deposition map of (131)I, we determined the (129)I concentrations (Bq/kg) in 388 soil samples collected from different locations in Fukushima Prefecture and the deposition densities (Bq/m(2)) of (131)I were reconstructed from the results.

  13. Designing an Experimental "Accident"

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Picker, Lester

    1974-01-01

    Describes an experimental "accident" that resulted in much student learning, seeks help in the identification of nematodes, and suggests biology teachers introduce similar accidents into their teaching to stimulate student interest. (PEB)

  14. Teaching Critical Thinking by Examining Assumptions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yanchar, Stephen C.; Slife, Brent D.

    2004-01-01

    We describe how instructors can integrate the critical thinking skill of examining theoretical assumptions (e.g., determinism and materialism) and implications into psychology courses. In this instructional approach, students formulate questions that help them identify assumptions and implications, use those questions to identify and examine the…

  15. The Importance of Learning to Make Assumptions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fortus, David

    2009-01-01

    Making assumptions is an important step in solving many real-world problems. This study investigated whether participants who could solve well-defined physics problems could also solve a real-world physics problem that involved the need to make assumptions. The participants, who all had at least a BA in physics, were videotaped "thinking aloud"…

  16. The Self in Guidance: Assumptions and Challenges.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Edwards, Richard; Payne, John

    1997-01-01

    Examines the assumptions of "self" made in the professional and managerial discourses of guidance. Suggests that these assumptions obstruct the capacity of guidance workers to explain their own practices. Drawing on contemporary debates over identity, modernity, and postmodernity, argues for a more explicit debate about the self in guidance. (RJM)

  17. 5 CFR 841.405 - Economic assumptions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 5 Administrative Personnel 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Economic assumptions. 841.405 Section 841... (CONTINUED) FEDERAL EMPLOYEES RETIREMENT SYSTEM-GENERAL ADMINISTRATION Government Costs § 841.405 Economic assumptions. The determinations of the normal cost percentage will be based on the economic...

  18. Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook

    EIA Publications

    2015-01-01

    This report presents the major assumptions of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) used to generate the projections in the Annual Energy Outlook, including general features of the model structure, assumptions concerning energy markets, and the key input data and parameters that are the most significant in formulating the model results.

  19. Identification of severe accident uncertainties

    SciTech Connect

    Rivard, J.B.; Behr, V.L.; Easterling, R.G.; Griesmeyer, J.M.; Haskin, F.E.; Hatch, S.W.; Kolaczkowski, A.M.; Lipinski, R.J.; Sherman, M.P.; Taig, A.R.

    1984-09-01

    Understanding of severe accidents in light-water reactors is currently beset with uncertainty. Because the uncertainties that are present limit the capability to analyze the progression and possible consequences of such accidents, they restrict the technical basis for regulatory actions by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). It is thus necessary to attempt to identify the sources and quantify the influence of these uncertainties. As a part of ongoing NRC severe-accident programs at Sandia National Laboratories, a working group was formed to pool relevant knowledge and experience in assessing the uncertainties attending present (1983) knowledge of severe accidents. This initial report of the Severe Accident Uncertainty Analysis (SAUNA) working group has as its main goal the identification of a consolidated list of uncertainties that affect in-plant processes and systems. Many uncertainties have been identified. A set of key uncertainties summarizes many of the identified uncertainties. Quantification of the influence of these uncertainties, a necessary second step, is not attempted in the present report, although attempts are made qualitatively to demonstrate the relevance of the identified uncertainties.

  20. Delta launch vehicle accident investigation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    1986-03-01

    The text of the testimony given by several witnesses during the House hearings on the Delta launch vehicle accident of May 3, 1986 is given. Pre-launch procedures, failure analysis, the possibility of sabotage, and design and testing are among the topics discussed.

  1. Candu 6 severe core damage accident consequence analysis for steam generator tube rupture scenario using MAAP4-CANDU V4.0.5A: preliminary results

    SciTech Connect

    Petoukhov, S.M.; Awadh, B.; Mathew, P.M.

    2006-07-01

    This paper describes the preliminary results of the consequence analysis for a generic AECL CANDU 6 station, when it undergoes a postulated, low probability Steam Generator multiple Tube Rupture (SGTR) severe accident with assumed unavailability of several critical plant safety systems. The Modular Accident Analysis Program for CANDU (MAAP4-CANDU) code was used for this analysis. The SGTR accident is assumed to begin with the guillotine rupture of 10 steam generator tubes in one steam generator in Primary Heat Transport System (PHTS) loop 1. For the reference case, the following systems were assumed unavailable: moderator and shield cooling, emergency core cooling, crash cool-down, and main and auxiliary feed water. Two additional cases were analyzed, one with the crash cool-down system available, and another with the crash cool-down and the auxiliary feed water systems available. The three scenarios considered in this study show that most of the initial fission product inventory would be retained within the containment by various fission product retention mechanisms. For the case where the crash cool-down system was credited but the auxiliary feed water systems were not credited, the total mass of volatile fission products released to the environment including stable and radioactive isotopes was about four times more than in the reference case, because fission products could be released directly from the PHTS to the environment through the Main Steam Safety Valves (MSSVs), bypassing the containment. For the case where the crash cool-down and auxiliary feed water systems were credited, the volatile fission product release to the environment was insignificant, because the fission product release was substantially mitigated by scrubbing in the water pool in the secondary side of the steam generator (SG). (authors)

  2. A Scoping Analysis Of The Impact Of SiC Cladding On Late-Phase Accident Progression Involving Core–Concrete Interaction

    SciTech Connect

    Farmer, M. T.

    2015-11-01

    The overall objective of the current work is to carry out a scoping analysis to determine the impact of ATF on late phase accident progression; in particular, the molten core-concrete interaction portion of the sequence that occurs after the core debris fails the reactor vessel and relocates into containment. This additional study augments previous work by including kinetic effects that govern chemical reaction rates during core-concrete interaction. The specific ATF considered as part of this study is SiC-clad UO2.

  3. Accident consequence calculations for project W-058 safetyanalysis

    SciTech Connect

    Van Keuren, J.C.

    1997-06-10

    Accident consequence analyses have been performed for Project W-058, the Replacement Cross Site Transfer System. using the assumption and analysis techniques developed for the Tank Remediation Waste system Basis for Interim Operation. most potential accident involving the FISTS are bounded by the TWRS BIO analysis. However, the spray leak and pool leak scenarios require revised analyses since the RCSTS design utilizes larger diameter pipe and higher pressures than those analyzed in the TWRS BIO. Also the volume of diversion box and vent station are larger than that assumed for the valve pits in the TWRS BIO, which effects results of sprays or spills into the pits. the revised analysis for the spray leak is presented in Section 2, for the above ground spill in Section 3, for the presented in Section 2, for the above ground spill in Section 3, for the subsurface spill forming a pool in Section 4, and for the subsurface pool remaining subsurface in Section 5. The conclusion from these sections are summarized below.

  4. 10 CFR 76.85 - Assessment of accidents.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 10 Energy 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Assessment of accidents. 76.85 Section 76.85 Energy NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION (CONTINUED) CERTIFICATION OF GASEOUS DIFFUSION PLANTS Safety § 76.85 Assessment of accidents. The Corporation shall perform an analysis of potential accidents and consequences...

  5. 10 CFR 76.85 - Assessment of accidents.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 10 Energy 2 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Assessment of accidents. 76.85 Section 76.85 Energy NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION (CONTINUED) CERTIFICATION OF GASEOUS DIFFUSION PLANTS Safety § 76.85 Assessment of accidents. The Corporation shall perform an analysis of potential accidents and consequences...

  6. 10 CFR 76.85 - Assessment of accidents.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 10 Energy 2 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Assessment of accidents. 76.85 Section 76.85 Energy NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION (CONTINUED) CERTIFICATION OF GASEOUS DIFFUSION PLANTS Safety § 76.85 Assessment of accidents. The Corporation shall perform an analysis of potential accidents and consequences...

  7. 10 CFR 76.85 - Assessment of accidents.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 10 Energy 2 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Assessment of accidents. 76.85 Section 76.85 Energy NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION (CONTINUED) CERTIFICATION OF GASEOUS DIFFUSION PLANTS Safety § 76.85 Assessment of accidents. The Corporation shall perform an analysis of potential accidents and consequences...

  8. 10 CFR 76.85 - Assessment of accidents.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 10 Energy 2 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Assessment of accidents. 76.85 Section 76.85 Energy NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION (CONTINUED) CERTIFICATION OF GASEOUS DIFFUSION PLANTS Safety § 76.85 Assessment of accidents. The Corporation shall perform an analysis of potential accidents and consequences...

  9. 40 CFR 93.110 - Criteria and procedures: Latest planning assumptions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... planning assumptions. 93.110 Section 93.110 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY... and procedures: Latest planning assumptions. (a) Except as provided in this paragraph, the conformity... most recent planning assumptions in force at the time the conformity analysis begins. The...

  10. Evaluation of potential severe accidents during low power and shutdown operations at Surry, Unit 1: Analysis of core damage frequency from internal events during mid-loop operations. Appendix E (Sections E.9-E.16), Volume 2, Part 3B

    SciTech Connect

    Chu, T.L.; Musicki, Z.; Kohut, P.; Yang, J.; Bozoki, G.; Hsu, C.J.; Diamond, D.J.; Wong, S.M.; Bley, D.; Johnson, D.

    1994-06-01

    Traditionally, probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) of severe accidents in nuclear power plants have considered initiating events potentially occurring only during full power operation. Some previous screening analyses that were performed for other modes of operation suggested that risks during those modes were small relative to full power operation. However, more recent studies and operational experience have implied that accidents during low power and shutdown could be significant contributors to risk. Two plants, Surry (pressurized water reactor) and Grand Gulf (boiling water reactor), were selected as the plants to be studied. The objectives of the program are to assess the risks of severe accidents initiated during plant operational states other than full power operation and to compare the estimated core damage frequencies, important accident sequences and other qualitative and quantitative results with those accidents initiated during full power operation as assessed in NUREG-1150. The scope of the program includes that of a level-3 PRA. In phase 2, mid-loop operation was selected as the plant configuration to be analyzed based on the results of the phase 1 study. The objective of the phase 2 study is to perform a detailed analysis of the potential accident scenarios that may occur during mid-loop operation, and compare the results with those of NUREG-1150. The scope of the level-1 study includes plant damage state analysis, and uncertainty analysis. Volume 1 summarizes the results of the study. Internal events analysis is documented in Volume 2. It also contains an appendix that documents the part of the phase 1 study that has to do with POSs other than mid-loop operation. Internal fire and internal flood analyses are documented in Volumes 3 and 4. A separate study on seismic analysis, documented in Volume 5, was performed for the NRC by Future Resources Associates, Inc. Volume 6 documents the accident progression, source terms, and consequence analysis.

  11. Evaluation of potential severe accidents during low power and shutdown operations at Surry, Unit-1: Analysis of core damage frequency from internal events during mid-loop operations. Appendices F-H, Volume 2, Part 4

    SciTech Connect

    Chu, T.L.; Musicki, Z.; Kohut, P.; Yang, J.; Bozoki, G.; Hsu, C.J.; Diamond, D.J.; Bley, D.; Johnson, D.; Holmes, B.

    1994-06-01

    Traditionally, probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) of severe accidents in nuclear power plants have considered initiating events potentially occurring only during full power operation. Some previous screening analyses that were performed for other modes of operation suggested that risks during those modes were small relative to full power operation. However, more recent studies and operational experience have implied that accidents during low power and shutdown could be significant contributors to risk. Two plants, Surry (pressurized water reactor) and Grand Gulf (boiling water reactor), were selected as the plants to be studied. The objectives of the program are to assess the risks of severe accidents initiated during plant operational states other than full power operation and to compare the estimated core damage frequencies, important accident sequences and other qualitative and quantitative results with those accidents initiated during full power operation as assessed in NUREG-1150. The scope of the program includes that of a level-3 PRA. In phase 2, mid-loop operation was selected as the plant configuration to be analyzed based on the results of the phase 1 study. The objective of the phase 2 study is to perform a detailed analysis of the potential accident scenarios that may occur during mid-loop operation, and compare the results with those of NUREG-1150. The scope of the level-1 study includes plant damage state analysis, and uncertainty analysis. Volume 1 summarizes the results of the study. Internal events analysis is documented in Volume 2. It also contains an appendix that documents the part of the phase 1 study that has to do with POSs other than mid-loop operation. Internal fire and internal flood analyses are documented in Volumes 3 and 4. A separate study on seismic analysis, documented in Volume 5, was performed for the NRC by Future Resources Associates, Inc. Volume 6 documents the accident progression, source terms, and consequence analysis.

  12. Searching for meaning in loss: are clinical assumptions correct.

    PubMed

    Davis, C G; Wortman, C B; Lehman, D R; Silver, R C

    2000-09-01

    Three assumptions guiding research and clinical intervention strategies for people coping with sudden, traumatic loss are that (a) people confronting such losses inevitably search for meaning, (b) over time most are able to find meaning and put the issue aside, and (c) finding meaning is critical for adjustment or healing. We review existing empirical research that addresses these assumptions and present evidence from a study of 124 parents coping with the death of their infant and a study of 93 adults coping with the loss of their spouse or child to a motor vehicle accident. Results of these studies indicate that (a) a significant subset of individuals do not search for meaning and yet appear relatively well-adjusted to their loss; (b) less than half of the respondents in each of these samples report finding any meaning in their loss, even more than a year after the event; and (c) those who find meaning, although better adjusted than those who search but are unable to find meaning, do not put the issue of meaning aside and move on. Rather, they continue to pursue the issue of meaning as fervently as those who search but do not find meaning. Implications for both research and clinical intervention are discussed.

  13. Technical considerations related to interim source-term assumptions for emergency planning and equipment qualification. [PWR; BWR

    SciTech Connect

    Niemczyk, S.J.; McDowell-Boyer, L.M.

    1982-09-01

    The source terms recommended in the current regulatory guidance for many considerations of light water reactor (LWR) accidents were developed a number of years ago when understandings of many of the phenomena pertinent to source term estimation were relatively primitive. The purpose of the work presented here was to develop more realistic source term assumptions which could be used for interim regulatory purposes for two specific considerations, namely, equipment qualification and emergency planning. The overall approach taken was to adopt assumptions and models previously proposed for various aspects of source term estimation and to modify those assumptions and models to reflect recently gained insights into, and data describing, the release and transport of radionuclides during and after LWR accidents. To obtain illustrative estimates of the magnitudes of the source terms, the results of previous calculations employing the adopted assumptions and models were utilized and were modified to account for the effects of the recent insights and data.

  14. Analysis of accident sequences and source terms at waste treatment and storage facilities for waste generated by U.S. Department of Energy Waste Management Operations, Volume 3: Appendixes C-H

    SciTech Connect

    Mueller, C.; Nabelssi, B.; Roglans-Ribas, J.

    1995-04-01

    This report contains the Appendices for the Analysis of Accident Sequences and Source Terms at Waste Treatment and Storage Facilities for Waste Generated by the U.S. Department of Energy Waste Management Operations. The main report documents the methodology, computational framework, and results of facility accident analyses performed as a part of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Waste Management Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (WM PEIS). The accident sequences potentially important to human health risk are specified, their frequencies are assessed, and the resultant radiological and chemical source terms are evaluated. A personal computer-based computational framework and database have been developed that provide these results as input to the WM PEIS for calculation of human health risk impacts. This report summarizes the accident analyses and aggregates the key results for each of the waste streams. Source terms are estimated and results are presented for each of the major DOE sites and facilities by WM PEIS alternative for each waste stream. The appendices identify the potential atmospheric release of each toxic chemical or radionuclide for each accident scenario studied. They also provide discussion of specific accident analysis data and guidance used or consulted in this report.

  15. 47 CFR 214.3 - Assumptions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... (3 CFR, 1966-1970 Comp., p. 820), and other emergency plans regarding the allocation and use of... COORDINATION OF THE RADIO SPECTRUM DURING A WARTIME EMERGENCY § 214.3 Assumptions. When the provisions of...

  16. 47 CFR 214.3 - Assumptions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... (3 CFR, 1966-1970 Comp., p. 820), and other emergency plans regarding the allocation and use of... COORDINATION OF THE RADIO SPECTRUM DURING A WARTIME EMERGENCY § 214.3 Assumptions. When the provisions of...

  17. 47 CFR 214.3 - Assumptions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... (3 CFR, 1966-1970 Comp., p. 820), and other emergency plans regarding the allocation and use of... COORDINATION OF THE RADIO SPECTRUM DURING A WARTIME EMERGENCY § 214.3 Assumptions. When the provisions of...

  18. 47 CFR 214.3 - Assumptions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... (3 CFR, 1966-1970 Comp., p. 820), and other emergency plans regarding the allocation and use of... COORDINATION OF THE RADIO SPECTRUM DURING A WARTIME EMERGENCY § 214.3 Assumptions. When the provisions of...

  19. 47 CFR 214.3 - Assumptions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... (3 CFR, 1966-1970 Comp., p. 820), and other emergency plans regarding the allocation and use of... COORDINATION OF THE RADIO SPECTRUM DURING A WARTIME EMERGENCY § 214.3 Assumptions. When the provisions of...

  20. Input-output model for MACCS nuclear accident impacts estimation¹

    SciTech Connect

    Outkin, Alexander V.; Bixler, Nathan E.; Vargas, Vanessa N

    2015-01-27

    Since the original economic model for MACCS was developed, better quality economic data (as well as the tools to gather and process it) and better computational capabilities have become available. The update of the economic impacts component of the MACCS legacy model will provide improved estimates of business disruptions through the use of Input-Output based economic impact estimation. This paper presents an updated MACCS model, bases on Input-Output methodology, in which economic impacts are calculated using the Regional Economic Accounting analysis tool (REAcct) created at Sandia National Laboratories. This new GDP-based model allows quick and consistent estimation of gross domestic product (GDP) losses due to nuclear power plant accidents. This paper outlines the steps taken to combine the REAcct Input-Output-based model with the MACCS code, describes the GDP loss calculation, and discusses the parameters and modeling assumptions necessary for the estimation of long-term effects of nuclear power plant accidents.

  1. Analysis of main steam isolation valve leakage in design basis accidents using MELCOR 1.8.6 and RADTRAD.

    SciTech Connect

    Salay, Michael; Kalinich, Donald A.; Gauntt, Randall O.; Radel, Tracy E.

    2008-10-01

    Analyses were performed using MELCOR and RADTRAD to investigate main steam isolation valve (MSIV) leakage behavior under design basis accident (DBA) loss-of-coolant (LOCA) conditions that are presumed to have led to a significant core melt accident. Dose to the control room, site boundary and LPZ are examined using both approaches described in current regulatory guidelines as well as analyses based on best estimate source term and system response. At issue is the current practice of using containment airborne aerosol concentrations as a surrogate for the in-vessel aerosol concentration that exists in the near vicinity of the MSIVs. This study finds current practice using the AST-based containment aerosol concentrations for assessing MSIV leakage is non-conservative and conceptually in error. A methodology is proposed that scales the containment aerosol concentration to the expected vessel concentration in order to preserve the simplified use of the AST in assessing containment performance under assumed DBA conditions. This correction is required during the first two hours of the accident while the gap and early in-vessel source terms are present. It is general practice to assume that at {approx}2hrs, recovery actions to reflood the core will have been successful and that further core damage can be avoided. The analyses performed in this study determine that, after two hours, assuming vessel reflooding has taken place, the containment aerosol concentration can then conservatively be used as the effective source to the leaking MSIV's. Recommendations are provided concerning typical aerosol removal coefficients that can be used in the RADTRAD code to predict source attenuation in the steam lines, and on robust methods of predicting MSIV leakage flows based on measured MSIV leakage performance.

  2. Shattering world assumptions: A prospective view of the impact of adverse events on world assumptions.

    PubMed

    Schuler, Eric R; Boals, Adriel

    2016-05-01

    Shattered Assumptions theory (Janoff-Bulman, 1992) posits that experiencing a traumatic event has the potential to diminish the degree of optimism in the assumptions of the world (assumptive world), which could lead to the development of posttraumatic stress disorder. Prior research assessed the assumptive world with a measure that was recently reported to have poor psychometric properties (Kaler et al., 2008). The current study had 3 aims: (a) to assess the psychometric properties of a recently developed measure of the assumptive world, (b) to retrospectively examine how prior adverse events affected the optimism of the assumptive world, and (c) to measure the impact of an intervening adverse event. An 8-week prospective design with a college sample (N = 882 at Time 1 and N = 511 at Time 2) was used to assess the study objectives. We split adverse events into those that were objectively or subjectively traumatic in nature. The new measure exhibited adequate psychometric properties. The report of a prior objective or subjective trauma at Time 1 was related to a less optimistic assumptive world. Furthermore, participants who experienced an intervening objectively traumatic event evidenced a decrease in optimistic views of the world compared with those who did not experience an intervening adverse event. We found support for Shattered Assumptions theory retrospectively and prospectively using a reliable measure of the assumptive world. We discuss future assessments of the measure of the assumptive world and clinical implications to help rebuild the assumptive world with current therapies. (PsycINFO Database Record

  3. The Fukushima Daiichi Accident Study Information Portal

    SciTech Connect

    Shawn St. Germain; Curtis Smith; David Schwieder; Cherie Phelan

    2012-11-01

    This paper presents a description of The Fukushima Daiichi Accident Study Information Portal. The Information Portal was created by the Idaho National Laboratory as part of joint NRC and DOE project to assess the severe accident modeling capability of the MELCOR analysis code. The Fukushima Daiichi Accident Study Information Portal was created to collect, store, retrieve and validate information and data for use in reconstructing the Fukushima Daiichi accident. In addition to supporting the MELCOR simulations, the Portal will be the main DOE repository for all data, studies and reports related to the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station. The data is stored in a secured (password protected and encrypted) repository that is searchable and accessible to researchers at diverse locations.

  4. Hidden Assumptions, Attitudes, and Procedures in Failing Schools

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gunzelmann, Betsy

    2008-01-01

    Many hidden assumptions, attitudes, and procedures are practiced routinely in schools without much thought or analysis. One possible explanation for their occurrence is that educators become comfortable with familiar routines and believe they must be doing OK because that's the way schools have always operated. Another likely possibility involves…

  5. Philosophical Assumptions and Contemporary Research Perspectives: A Course Supplement.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fowler, Gene D.

    To supplement course materials for classes in communication theory and research methods, this paper compares philosophical assumptions underlying three approaches to communication research: scientific, which stresses quantitative methods of analysis; humanistic, which encompasses many conflicting techniques but has as a common element--the…

  6. Comparative analysis of PA-31-350 Chieftain (N44LV) accident and NASA crash test data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hayduk, R. J.

    1979-01-01

    A full scale, controlled crash test to simulate the crash of a Piper PA-31-350 Chieftain airplane is described. Comparisons were performed between the simulated crash and the actual crash in order to assess seat and floor behavior, and to estimate the acceleration levels experienced in the craft at the time of impact. Photographs, acceleration histories, and the tested airplane crash data is used to augment the accident information to better define the crash conditions. Measured impact parameters are presented along with flight path velocity and angle in relation to the impact surface.

  7. Transport aircraft accident dynamics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cominsky, A.

    1982-01-01

    A study was carried out of 112 impact survivable jet transport aircraft accidents (world wide) of 27,700 kg (60,000 lb.) aircraft and up extending over the last 20 years. This study centered on the effect of impact and the follow-on events on aircraft structures and was confined to the approach, landing and takeoff segments of the flight. The significant characteristics, frequency of occurrence and the effect on the occupants of the above data base were studied and categorized with a view to establishing typical impact scenarios for use as a basis of verifying the effectiveness of potential safety concepts. Studies were also carried out of related subjects such as: (1) assessment of advanced materials; (2) human tolerance to impact; (3) merit functions for safety concepts; and (4) impact analysis and test methods.

  8. The steady-state assumption in oscillating and growing systems.

    PubMed

    Reimers, Alexandra-M; Reimers, Arne C

    2016-10-01

    The steady-state assumption, which states that the production and consumption of metabolites inside the cell are balanced, is one of the key aspects that makes an efficient analysis of genome-scale metabolic networks possible. It can be motivated from two different perspectives. In the time-scales perspective, we use the fact that metabolism is much faster than other cellular processes such as gene expression. Hence, the steady-state assumption is derived as a quasi-steady-state approximation of the metabolism that adapts to the changing cellular conditions. In this article we focus on the second perspective, stating that on the long run no metabolite can accumulate or deplete. In contrast to the first perspective it is not immediately clear how this perspective can be captured mathematically and what assumptions are required to obtain the steady-state condition. By presenting a mathematical framework based on the second perspective we demonstrate that the assumption of steady-state also applies to oscillating and growing systems without requiring quasi-steady-state at any time point. However, we also show that the average concentrations may not be compatible with the average fluxes. In summary, we establish a mathematical foundation for the steady-state assumption for long time periods that justifies its successful use in many applications. Furthermore, this mathematical foundation also pinpoints unintuitive effects in the integration of metabolite concentrations using nonlinear constraints into steady-state models for long time periods.

  9. The steady-state assumption in oscillating and growing systems.

    PubMed

    Reimers, Alexandra-M; Reimers, Arne C

    2016-10-01

    The steady-state assumption, which states that the production and consumption of metabolites inside the cell are balanced, is one of the key aspects that makes an efficient analysis of genome-scale metabolic networks possible. It can be motivated from two different perspectives. In the time-scales perspective, we use the fact that metabolism is much faster than other cellular processes such as gene expression. Hence, the steady-state assumption is derived as a quasi-steady-state approximation of the metabolism that adapts to the changing cellular conditions. In this article we focus on the second perspective, stating that on the long run no metabolite can accumulate or deplete. In contrast to the first perspective it is not immediately clear how this perspective can be captured mathematically and what assumptions are required to obtain the steady-state condition. By presenting a mathematical framework based on the second perspective we demonstrate that the assumption of steady-state also applies to oscillating and growing systems without requiring quasi-steady-state at any time point. However, we also show that the average concentrations may not be compatible with the average fluxes. In summary, we establish a mathematical foundation for the steady-state assumption for long time periods that justifies its successful use in many applications. Furthermore, this mathematical foundation also pinpoints unintuitive effects in the integration of metabolite concentrations using nonlinear constraints into steady-state models for long time periods. PMID:27363728

  10. Laser accidents: Being Prepared

    SciTech Connect

    Barat, K

    2003-01-24

    The goal of the Laser Safety Officer and any laser safety program is to prevent a laser accident from occurring, in particular an injury to a person's eyes. Most laser safety courses talk about laser accidents, causes, and types of injury. The purpose of this presentation is to present a plan for safety offices and users to follow in case of accident or injury from laser radiation.

  11. Behavior of an heterogeneous annular FBR core during an unprotected loss of flow accident: Analysis of the primary phase with SAS-SFR

    SciTech Connect

    Massara, S.; Schmitt, D.; Bretault, A.; Lemasson, D.; Darmet, G.; Verwaerde, D.; Struwe, D.; Pfrang, W.; Ponomarev, A.

    2012-07-01

    In the framework of a substantial improvement on FBR core safety connected to the development of a new Gen IV reactor type, heterogeneous core with innovative features are being carefully analyzed in France since 2009. At EDF R and D, the main goal is to understand whether a strong reduction of the Na-void worth - possibly attempting a negative value - allows a significant improvement of the core behavior during an unprotected loss of flow accident. Also, the physical behavior of such a core is of interest, before and beyond the (possible) onset of Na boiling. Hence, a cutting-edge heterogeneous design, featuring an annular shape, a Na-plena with a B{sub 4}C plate and a stepwise modulation of fissile core heights, was developed at EDF by means of the SDDS methodology, with a total Na-void worth of -1 $. The behavior of such a core during the primary phase of a severe accident, initiated by an unprotected loss of flow, is analyzed by means of the SAS-SFR code. This study is carried-out at KIT and EDF, in the framework of a scientific collaboration on innovative FBR severe accident analyses. The results show that the reduction of the Na-void worth is very effective, but is not sufficient alone to avoid Na-boiling and, hence, to prevent the core from entering into the primary phase of a severe accident. Nevertheless, the grace time up to boiling onset is greatly enhanced in comparison to a more traditional homogeneous core design, and only an extremely low fraction of the fuel (<0.1%) enters into melting at the end of this phase. A sensitivity analysis shows that, due to the inherent neutronic characteristics of such a core, the gagging scheme plays a major role on the core behavior: indeed, an improved 4-zones gagging scheme, associated with an enhanced control rod drive line expansion feed-back effect, finally prevents the core from entering into sodium boiling. This major conclusion highlights both the progress already accomplished and the need for more detailed

  12. Comparison of perceived and modelled geographical access to accident and emergency departments: a cross-sectional analysis from the Caerphilly Health and Social Needs Study

    PubMed Central

    Fone, David L; Christie, Stephen; Lester, Nathan

    2006-01-01

    Background Assessment of the spatial accessibility of hospital accident and emergency departments as perceived by local residents has not previously been investigated. Perceived accessibility may affect where, when, and whether potential patients attend for treatment. Using data on 11,853 respondents to a population survey in Caerphilly county borough, Wales, UK, we present an analysis comparing the accessibility of accident and emergency departments as reported by local residents and drive-time to the nearest accident and emergency department modelled using a geographical information system (GIS). Results Median drive-times were significantly shorter in the lowest perceived access category and longer in the best perceived access category (p < 0.001). The perceived access and GIS modelled drive-time variables were positively correlated (Spearman's rank correlation coefficient, r = 0.38, p < 0.01). The strongest correlation was found for respondents living in areas in which nearly all households had a car or van (r = 0.47, p < 0.01). Correlations were stronger among respondents reporting good access to public transport and among those reporting a recent accident and emergency attendance for injury treatment compared to other respondents. Correlation coefficients did not vary substantially by levels of household income. Drive-time, road distance and straight-line distance were highly inter-correlated and substituting road distance or straight-line distance as the GIS modelled spatial accessibility measure only marginally decreased the magnitude of the correlations between perceived and GIS modelled access. Conclusion This study provides evidence that the accessibility of hospital-based health care services as perceived by local residents is related to measures of spatial accessibility modelled using GIS. For studies that aim to model geographical separation in a way that correlates well with the perception of local residents, there may be minimal advantage in using

  13. Accident analysis for the low-level mixed waste ``No-Flame`` option in the U.S. Department of Energy Waste Management Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement

    SciTech Connect

    Folga, S.; Kohout, E.; Mueller, C.J.; Nabelssi, B.; Wilkins, B.; Mishima, J.

    1996-03-01

    This paper outlines the various steps pursued in performing a generic safety assessment of the various technologies considered for the low-level mixed waste (LLMW) ``No-Flame`` option in the US Department of Energy (DOE) Waste Management Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (WM PEIS). The treatment technologies for the ``No-Flame`` option differ from previous LLMW technologies analyzed in the WM PEIS in that the incineration and thermal desorption technologies are replaced by sludge washing, soil washing, debris washing, and organic destruction. A set of dominant waste treatment processes and accident scenarios were selected for analysis by means of a screening process. A subset of results (release source terms) from this analysis is presented.

  14. Learning lessons from Natech accidents - the eNATECH accident database

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krausmann, Elisabeth; Girgin, Serkan

    2016-04-01

    When natural hazards impact industrial facilities that house or process hazardous materials, fires, explosions and toxic releases can occur. This type of accident is commonly referred to as Natech accident. In order to prevent the recurrence of accidents or to better mitigate their consequences, lessons-learned type studies using available accident data are usually carried out. Through post-accident analysis, conclusions can be drawn on the most common damage and failure modes and hazmat release paths, particularly vulnerable storage and process equipment, and the hazardous materials most commonly involved in these types of accidents. These analyses also lend themselves to identifying technical and organisational risk-reduction measures that require improvement or are missing. Industrial accident databases are commonly used for retrieving sets of Natech accident case histories for further analysis. These databases contain accident data from the open literature, government authorities or in-company sources. The quality of reported information is not uniform and exhibits different levels of detail and accuracy. This is due to the difficulty of finding qualified information sources, especially in situations where accident reporting by the industry or by authorities is not compulsory, e.g. when spill quantities are below the reporting threshold. Data collection has then to rely on voluntary record keeping often by non-experts. The level of detail is particularly non-uniform for Natech accident data depending on whether the consequences of the Natech event were major or minor, and whether comprehensive information was available for reporting. In addition to the reporting bias towards high-consequence events, industrial accident databases frequently lack information on the severity of the triggering natural hazard, as well as on failure modes that led to the hazmat release. This makes it difficult to reconstruct the dynamics of the accident and renders the development of

  15. Road accidents caused by drivers falling asleep.

    PubMed

    Sagberg, F

    1999-11-01

    About 29600 Norwegian accident-involved drivers received a questionnaire about the last accident reported to their insurance company. About 9200 drivers (31%) returned the questionnaire. The questionnaire contained questions about sleep or fatigue as contributing factors to the accident. In addition, the drivers reported whether or not they had fallen asleep some time whilst driving. and what the consequences had been. Sleep or drowsiness was a contributing factor in 3.9% of all accidents, as reported by drivers who were at fault for the accident. This factor was strongly over-represented in night-time accidents (18.6%), in running-off-the-road accidents (8.3%), accidents after driving more than 150 km on one trip (8.1%), and personal injury accidents (7.3%). A logistic regression analysis showed that the following additional factors made significant and independent contributions to increasing the odds of sleep involvement in an accident: dry road, high speed limit, driving one's own car, not driving the car daily, high education, and few years of driving experience. More male than female drivers were involved in sleep-related accidents, but this seems largely to be explained by males driving relatively more than females on roads with high speed limits. A total of 10% of male drivers and 4% of females reported to have fallen asleep while driving during the last 12 months. A total of 4% of these events resulted in an accident. The most frequent consequence of falling asleep--amounting to more than 40% of the reported incidents--was crossing of the right edge-line before awaking, whereas crossing of the centreline was reported by 16%. Drivers' lack of awareness of important precursors of falling asleep--like highway hypnosis, driving without awareness, and similar phenomena--as well as a reluctance to discontinue driving despite feeling tired are pointed out as likely contributors to sleep-related accidents. More knowledge about the drivers' experiences immediately

  16. Life Support Baseline Values and Assumptions Document

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Anderson, Molly S.; Ewert, Michael K.; Keener, John F.; Wagner, Sandra A.

    2015-01-01

    The Baseline Values and Assumptions Document (BVAD) provides analysts, modelers, and other life support researchers with a common set of values and assumptions which can be used as a baseline in their studies. This baseline, in turn, provides a common point of origin from which many studies in the community may depart, making research results easier to compare and providing researchers with reasonable values to assume for areas outside their experience. With the ability to accurately compare different technologies' performance for the same function, managers will be able to make better decisions regarding technology development.

  17. Assessing Statistical Model Assumptions under Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Varotsos, Konstantinos V.; Giannakopoulos, Christos; Tombrou, Maria

    2016-04-01

    The majority of the studies assesses climate change impacts on air-quality using chemical transport models coupled to climate ones in an off-line mode, for various horizontal resolutions and different present and future time slices. A complementary approach is based on present-day empirical relations between air-pollutants and various meteorological variables which are then extrapolated to the future. However, the extrapolation relies on various assumptions such as that these relationships will retain their main characteristics in the future. In this study we focus on the ozone-temperature relationship. It is well known that among a number of meteorological variables, temperature is found to exhibit the highest correlation with ozone concentrations. This has led, in the past years, to the development and application of statistical models with which the potential impact of increasing future temperatures on various ozone statistical targets was examined. To examine whether the ozone-temperature relationship retains its main characteristics under warmer temperatures we analyze the relationship during the heatwaves events of 2003 and 2006 in Europe. More specifically, we use available gridded daily maximum temperatures (E-OBS) and hourly ozone observations from different non-urban stations (EMEP) within the areas that were impacted from the two heatwave events. In addition, we compare the temperature distributions of the two events with temperatures from two different future time periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 from a number of regional climate models developed under the framework of the Cordex initiative (http://www.cordex.org) with a horizontal resolution of 12 x 12km, based on different IPCC RCPs emissions scenarios. A statistical analysis is performed on the ozone-temperature relationship for each station and for the two aforementioned years which are then compared against the ozone-temperature relationships obtained from the rest of the available dataseries. The

  18. Analysis of accident sequences and source terms at waste treatment and storage facilities for waste generated by U.S. Department of Energy Waste Management Operations, Volume 1: Sections 1-9

    SciTech Connect

    Mueller, C.; Nabelssi, B.; Roglans-Ribas, J.

    1995-04-01

    This report documents the methodology, computational framework, and results of facility accident analyses performed for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Waste Management Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (WM PEIS). The accident sequences potentially important to human health risk are specified, their frequencies are assessed, and the resultant radiological and chemical source terms are evaluated. A personal computer-based computational framework and database have been developed that provide these results as input to the WM PEIS for calculation of human health risk impacts. The methodology is in compliance with the most recent guidance from DOE. It considers the spectrum of accident sequences that could occur in activities covered by the WM PEIS and uses a graded approach emphasizing the risk-dominant scenarios to facilitate discrimination among the various WM PEIS alternatives. Although it allows reasonable estimates of the risk impacts associated with each alternative, the main goal of the accident analysis methodology is to allow reliable estimates of the relative risks among the alternatives. The WM PEIS addresses management of five waste streams in the DOE complex: low-level waste (LLW), hazardous waste (HW), high-level waste (HLW), low-level mixed waste (LLMW), and transuranic waste (TRUW). Currently projected waste generation rates, storage inventories, and treatment process throughputs have been calculated for each of the waste streams. This report summarizes the accident analyses and aggregates the key results for each of the waste streams. Source terms are estimated and results are presented for each of the major DOE sites and facilities by WM PEIS alternative for each waste stream. The appendices identify the potential atmospheric release of each toxic chemical or radionuclide for each accident scenario studied. They also provide discussion of specific accident analysis data and guidance used or consulted in this report.

  19. Evaluation of potential severe accidents during low power and shutdown operations at Surry, Unit-1: Analysis of core damage frequency from internal events during mid-loop operations. Appendix I, Volume 2, Part 5

    SciTech Connect

    Chu, T.L.; Musicki, Z.; Kohut, P.; Yang, J.; Bozoki, G.; Hsu, C.J.; Diamond, D.J.; Bley, D.; Johnson, D.; Holmes, B.

    1994-06-01

    Traditionally, probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) of severe accidents in nuclear power plants have considered initiating events potentially occurring only during full power operation. Some previous screening analyses that were performed for other modes of operation suggested that risks during those modes were small relative to full power operation. However, more recent studies and operational experience have implied that accidents during low power and shutdown could be significant contributors to risk. During 1989, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) initiated an extensive program to carefully examine the potential risks during low power and shutdown operations. The program includes two parallel projects being performed by Brookhaven National Lab. (BNL) and Sandia National Labs. (SNL). Two plants, Surry (pressurized water reactor) and Grand Gulf (boiling water reactor), were selected as the plants to be studied. The objectives of the program are to assess the risks of severe accidents initiated during plant operational states other than full power operation and to compare the estimated core damage frequencies, important accident sequences and other qualitative and quantitative results with those accidents initiated during full power operation as assessed in NUREG-1150. The objective of this volume of the report is to document the approach utilized in the level-1 internal events PRA for the Surry plant, and discuss the results obtained. A phased approach was used in the level-1 program. In phase 1, which was completed in Fall 1991, a coarse screening analysis examining accidents initiated by internal events (including internal fire and flood) was performed for all plant operational states (POSs). The objective of the phase 1 study was to identify potential vulnerable plant configurations, to characterize (on a high, medium, or low basis) the potential core damage accident scenarios, and to provide a foundation for a detailed phase 2 analysis.

  20. Fabrication and microstructural analysis of UN-U3Si2 composites for accident tolerant fuel applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Johnson, Kyle D.; Raftery, Alicia M.; Lopes, Denise Adorno; Wallenius, Janne

    2016-08-01

    In this study, U3Si2 was synthesized via the use of arc-melting and mixed with UN powders, which together were sintered using the SPS method. The study revealed a number of interesting conclusions regarding the stability of the system - namely the formation of a probable but as yet unidentified ternary phase coupled with the reduction of the stoichiometry in the nitride phase - as well as some insights into the mechanics of the sintering process itself. By milling the silicide powders and reducing its particle size ratio compared to UN, it was possible to form a high density UN-U3Si2 composite, with desirable microstructural characteristics for accident tolerant fuel applications.

  1. [Comparative analysis of the combined treatment efficacy of the Chernobyl accident clean-up workers with essential hypertension].

    PubMed

    Habulavichene, Zh M

    2012-12-01

    It was shown the results of comparative evaluation of combined treatment in 111 clean-up workers of Chernobyl accident with essential hypertension (EH). This treatment consist of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors, angiotensin receptor blockers in combination with calcium channel blockers and diuretics. The follow-up period lasted 12 months. It was found that combined therapy provides comparable and reliable blood pressure (BP) control during 24-hour, significant reduction of average daily BP, daytime and nighttime BP, an index of time of the BP, BP variability. Despite on achieved target blood pressure level, 4 weeks treatment is not enough for regression of left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH). Significant regress of LVH was found if treatment lasted during a year under the condition that BP remained at the target level. It was revealed the advantage of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors and angiotensin receptor blockers intake combined with a diuretic on regress of left ventricular hypertrophy and dysfunction.

  2. Next Generation Nuclear Plant Phenomena Identification and Ranking Tables (PIRTs) Volume 2: Accident and Thermal Fluids Analysis PIRTs

    SciTech Connect

    Ball, Sydney J; Corradini, M.; Fisher, Stephen Eugene; Gauntt, R.; Geffraye, G.; Gehin, Jess C; Hassan, Y.; Moses, David Lewis; Renier, John-Paul; Schultz, R.; Wei, T.

    2008-03-01

    An accident, thermal fluids, and reactor physics phenomena identification and ranking process was conducted by a panel of experts on the next generation nuclear plant (NGNP) design (consideration given to both pebble-bed and prismatic gas-cooled reactor configurations). Safety-relevant phenomena, importance, and knowledge base were assessed for the following event classes: (1) normal operation (including some reactor physics aspects), (2) general loss of forced circulation (G-LOFC), (3) pressurized loss-of-forced circulation (P-LOFC), (4) depressurized loss-of-forced circulation (D-LOFC), (5) air ingress (following D-LOFC), (6) reactivity transients - including anticipated transients without scram (ATWS), (7) processes coupled via intermediate heat exchanger (IHX) (IHX failure with molten salt), and (8) steam/water ingress. The panel's judgment of the importance ranking of a given phenomenon (or process) was based on the effect it had on one or more figures of merit or evaluation criteria. These included public and worker dose, fuel failure, and primary (and other safety) system integrity. The major phenomena of concern that were identified and categorized as high importance combined with medium to low knowledge follow: (1) core coolant bypass flows (normal operation), (2) power/flux profiles (normal operation), (3) outlet plenum flows (normal operation), (4) reactivity-temperature feedback coefficients for high-plutonium-content cores (normal operation and accidents), (5) fission product release related to the transport of silver (normal operation), (6)emissivity aspects for the vessel and reactor cavity cooling system (G-LOFC), (7) reactor vessel cavity air circulation and heat transfer (G-LOFC), and (8)convection/radiation heating of upper vessel area (P-LOFC).

  3. Civil aircraft accident investigation.

    PubMed

    Haines, Daniel

    2013-01-01

    This talk reviews some historic aircraft accidents and some more recent. It reflects on the division of accident causes, considering mechanical failures and aircrew failures, and on aircrew training. Investigation results may lead to improved aircraft design, and to appropriate crew training. PMID:24057309

  4. Anatomy of an Accident.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mobley, Michael

    1984-01-01

    The findings of industrial safety engineers in the areas of accident causation and prevention are wholly applicable to adventure programs. Adventure education instructors can use safety engineering concepts to assess the risk in a particular activity, understand factors that cause accidents, and intervene to minimize injuries and damages if…

  5. Farm accidents in children.

    PubMed Central

    Cameron, D.; Bishop, C.; Sibert, J. R.

    1992-01-01

    OBJECTIVE--To examine the problem of accidental injury to children on farms. DESIGN--Prospective county based study of children presenting to accident and emergency departments over 12 months with injuries sustained in a farm setting and nationwide review of fatal childhood farm accidents over the four years April 1986 to March 1990. SETTING--Accident and emergency departments in Aberystwyth, Carmarthen, Haverfordwest, and Llanelli and fatal accidents in England, Scotland, and Wales notified to the Health and Safety Executive register. SUBJECTS--Children aged under 16. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE--Death or injury after farm related accidents. RESULTS--65 accidents were recorded, including 18 fractures. Nine accidents necessitated admission to hospital for a mean of two (range one to four) days. 13 incidents were related to tractors and other machinery; 24 were due to falls. None of these incidents were reported under the statutory notification scheme. 33 deaths were notified, eight related to tractors and allied machinery and 10 related to falling objects. CONCLUSIONS--Although safety is improving, the farm remains a dangerous environment for children. Enforcement of existing safety legislation with significant penalties and targeting of safety education will help reduce accident rates further. PMID:1638192

  6. 24 CFR 58.4 - Assumption authority.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ..., decision-making, and action that would otherwise apply to HUD under NEPA and other provisions of law that... environmental review, decision-making and action for programs authorized by the Native American Housing... separate decision regarding assumption of responsibilities for each of these Acts and communicate...

  7. 10 CFR 436.14 - Methodological assumptions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... Procedures for Life Cycle Cost Analyses § 436.14 Methodological assumptions. (a) Each Federal Agency shall... the Life Cycle Costing Manual for the Federal Energy Management Program (NIST 85-3273) and determined... of the fiscal year in the Annual Supplement to the Life Cycle Costing Manual for the Federal...

  8. 10 CFR 436.14 - Methodological assumptions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... Procedures for Life Cycle Cost Analyses § 436.14 Methodological assumptions. (a) Each Federal Agency shall... the Life Cycle Costing Manual for the Federal Energy Management Program (NIST 85-3273) and determined... of the fiscal year in the Annual Supplement to the Life Cycle Costing Manual for the Federal...

  9. Assumptions of Multiple Regression: Correcting Two Misconceptions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Williams, Matt N.; Gomez Grajales, Carlos Alberto; Kurkiewicz, Dason

    2013-01-01

    In 2002, an article entitled "Four assumptions of multiple regression that researchers should always test" by Osborne and Waters was published in "PARE." This article has gone on to be viewed more than 275,000 times (as of August 2013), and it is one of the first results displayed in a Google search for "regression…

  10. Extracurricular Business Planning Competitions: Challenging the Assumptions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Watson, Kayleigh; McGowan, Pauric; Smith, Paul

    2014-01-01

    Business planning competitions [BPCs] are a commonly offered yet under-examined extracurricular activity. Given the extent of sceptical comment about business planning, this paper offers what the authors believe is a much-needed critical discussion of the assumptions that underpin the provision of such competitions. In doing so it is suggested…

  11. 10 CFR 436.14 - Methodological assumptions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 10 Energy 3 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Methodological assumptions. 436.14 Section 436.14 Energy DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY ENERGY CONSERVATION FEDERAL ENERGY MANAGEMENT AND PLANNING PROGRAMS Methodology and... discount to present values the future cash flows established in either current or constant...

  12. 10 CFR 436.14 - Methodological assumptions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 10 Energy 3 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Methodological assumptions. 436.14 Section 436.14 Energy DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY ENERGY CONSERVATION FEDERAL ENERGY MANAGEMENT AND PLANNING PROGRAMS Methodology and... discount to present values the future cash flows established in either current or constant...

  13. 10 CFR 436.14 - Methodological assumptions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... Procedures for Life Cycle Cost Analyses § 436.14 Methodological assumptions. (a) Each Federal Agency shall... the Life Cycle Costing Manual for the Federal Energy Management Program (NIST 85-3273) and determined... of the fiscal year in the Annual Supplement to the Life Cycle Costing Manual for the Federal...

  14. Culturally Biased Assumptions in Counseling Psychology

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pedersen, Paul B.

    2003-01-01

    Eight clusters of culturally biased assumptions are identified for further discussion from Leong and Ponterotto's (2003) article. The presence of cultural bias demonstrates that cultural bias is so robust and pervasive that is permeates the profession of counseling psychology, even including those articles that effectively attack cultural bias…

  15. Artificial Intelligence: Underlying Assumptions and Basic Objectives.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cercone, Nick; McCalla, Gordon

    1984-01-01

    Presents perspectives on methodological assumptions underlying research efforts in artificial intelligence (AI) and charts activities, motivations, methods, and current status of research in each of the major AI subareas: natural language understanding; computer vision; expert systems; search, problem solving, planning; theorem proving and logic…

  16. 29 CFR 4281.14 - Mortality assumptions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ..., TERMINATION, AND OTHER RULES APPLICABLE TO MULTIEMPLOYER PLANS DUTIES OF PLAN SPONSOR FOLLOWING MASS WITHDRAWAL Valuation of Plan Benefits and Plan Assets § 4281.14 Mortality assumptions. (a) General rule... for disabled lives (other than Social Security disability). The mortality rates applicable...

  17. Mexican-American Cultural Assumptions and Implications.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Carranza, E. Lou

    The search for presuppositions of a people's thought is not new. Octavio Paz and Samuel Ramos have both attempted to describe the assumptions underlying the Mexican character. Paz described Mexicans as private, defensive, and stoic, characteristics taken to the extreme in the "pachuco." Ramos, on the other hand, described Mexicans as being…

  18. Critically Challenging Some Assumptions in HRD

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    O'Donnell, David; McGuire, David; Cross, Christine

    2006-01-01

    This paper sets out to critically challenge five interrelated assumptions prominent in the (human resource development) HRD literature. These relate to: the exploitation of labour in enhancing shareholder value; the view that employees are co-contributors to and co-recipients of HRD benefits; the distinction between HRD and human resource…

  19. Final report on accident tolerant fuel performance analysis of APMT-Steel Clad/UO₂ fuel and APMT-Steel Clad/UN-U₃Si₅ fuel concepts

    SciTech Connect

    Unal, Cetin; Galloway, Jack D.

    2014-09-12

    In FY2014 our group completed and documented analysis of new Accident Tolerant Fuel (ATF) concepts using BISON. We have modeled the viability of moving from Zircaloy to stainless steel cladding in traditional light water reactors (LWRs). We have explored the reactivity penalty of this change using the MCNP-based burnup code Monteburns, while attempting to minimize this penalty by increasing the fuel pellet radius and decreasing the cladding thickness. Fuel performance simulations using BISON have also been performed to quantify changes to structural integrity resulting from thinner stainless steel claddings. We account for thermal and irradiation creep, fission gas swelling, thermal swelling and fuel relocation in the models for both Zircaloy and stainless steel claddings. Additional models that account for the lower oxidation stainless steel APMT are also invoked where available. Irradiation data for HT9 is used as a fallback in the absence of appropriate models. In this study the isotopic vectors within each natural element are varied to assess potential reactivity gains if advanced enrichment capabilities were levied towards cladding technologies. Recommendations on cladding thicknesses for a robust cladding as well as the constitutive components of a less penalizing composition are provided. In the first section (section 1-3), we present results accepted for publication in the 2014 TOPFUEL conference regarding the APMT/UO₂ ATF concept (J. Galloway & C. Unal, Accident Tolerant and Neutronically Favorable LWR Cladding, Proceedings of WRFPM 2014, Sendai, Japan, Paper No.1000050). Next we discuss our preliminary findings from the thermo-mechanical analysis of UN-U₃Si₅ fuel with APMT clad. In this analysis we used models developed from limited data that need to be updated when the irradiation data from ATF-1 test is available. Initial results indicate a swelling rate less than 1.5% is needed to prevent excessive clad stress.

  20. Analysis of criticality accident alarm system coverage of the X-744G, X-744H, X-342/344A and X-343 facilities at the Portsmouth Gaseous Diffusion Plant

    SciTech Connect

    Dobelbower, M.C.; Woollard, J.; Lee, B.L. Jr.; Tayloe, R.W. Jr.

    1995-09-01

    Additional services for the uranium enrichment cascade process, such as UF{sub 6} feed, sampling, and material storage are provided by several ancillary Uranium Material Handling (UMH) facilities at the PORTS site. These facilities include the X-343 Feed Vaporization and Sampling Facility, the X-744G Bulk Non-Uranium Enrichment Service Activity (UESA) Storage Building, the X-744H Waste Separation and Storage Facility, the X-344A Toll Enrichment Services Facility and the X-342A Feed Vaporization and Fluorine Generation Facility. As uranium operations are performed within these facilities, the potential for a criticality accident exists. In the event of a criticality accident within a process facility at PORTS, a Criticality Accident Alarm System (CAAS) is in place to detect the criticality accident and sound an alarm. In this report, an analysis was performed to provide verification that the existing CAAS at PORTS provides complete criticality accident coverage in the X-343, X-744G. X-744H. X-344A and X-342A facilities. The analysis has determined that all of the above-mentioned facilities have complete CAAS coverage.

  1. Design analysis of the molten core confinement within the reactor vessel in the case of severe accidents at nuclear power plants equipped with a reactor of the VVER type

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zvonaryov, Yu. A.; Budaev, M. A.; Volchek, A. M.; Gorbaev, V. A.; Zagryazkin, V. N.; Kiselyov, N. P.; Kobzar', V. L.; Konobeev, A. V.; Tsurikov, D. F.

    2013-12-01

    The present paper reports the results of the preliminary design estimate of the behavior of the core melt in vessels of reactors of the VVER-600 and VVER-1300 types (a standard optimized and informative nuclear power unit based on VVER technology—VVER TOI) in the case of beyond-design-basis severe accidents. The basic processes determining the state of the core melt in the reactor vessel are analyzed. The concept of molten core confinement within the vessel based on the idea of outside cooling is discussed. Basic assumptions and models, as well as the results of calculation of the interaction between molten materials of the core and the wall of the reactor vessel performed by means of the SOCRAT severe accident code, are presented and discussed. On the basis of the data obtained, the requirements on the operation of the safety systems are determined, upon the fulfillment of which there will appear potential prerequisites for implementing the concept of the confinement of the core melt within the reactor in cases of severe accidents at nuclear power plants equipped with VVER reactors.

  2. The Effects of Single and Compound Violations of Data Set Assumptions when Using the Oneway, Fixed Effects Analysis of Variance and the One Concomitant Analysis of Covariance Statistical Models.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnson, Colleen Cook

    This study integrates into one comprehensive Monte Carlo simulation a vast array of previously defined and substantively interrelated research studies of the robustness of analysis of variance (ANOVA) and analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) statistical procedures. Three sets of balanced ANOVA and ANCOVA designs (group sizes of 15, 30, and 45) and one…

  3. Markov Model of Accident Progression at Fukushima Daiichi

    SciTech Connect

    Cuadra A.; Bari R.; Cheng, L-Y; Ginsberg, T.; Lehner, J.; Martinez-Guridi, G.; Mubayi, V.; Pratt, T.; Yue, M.

    2012-11-11

    On March 11, 2011, a magnitude 9.0 earthquake followed by a tsunami caused loss of offsite power and disabled the emergency diesel generators, leading to a prolonged station blackout at the Fukushima Daiichi site. After successful reactor trip for all operating reactors, the inability to remove decay heat over an extended period led to boil-off of the water inventory and fuel uncovery in Units 1-3. A significant amount of metal-water reaction occurred, as evidenced by the quantities of hydrogen generated that led to hydrogen explosions in the auxiliary buildings of the Units 1 & 3, and in the de-fuelled Unit 4. Although it was assumed that extensive fuel damage, including fuel melting, slumping, and relocation was likely to have occurred in the core of the affected reactors, the status of the fuel, vessel, and drywell was uncertain. To understand the possible evolution of the accident conditions at Fukushima Daiichi, a Markov model of the likely state of one of the reactors was constructed and executed under different assumptions regarding system performance and reliability. The Markov approach was selected for several reasons: It is a probabilistic model that provides flexibility in scenario construction and incorporates time dependence of different model states. It also readily allows for sensitivity and uncertainty analyses of different failure and repair rates of cooling systems. While the analysis was motivated by a need to gain insight on the course of events for the damaged units at Fukushima Daiichi, the work reported here provides a more general analytical basis for studying and evaluating severe accident evolution over extended periods of time. This work was performed at the request of the U.S. Department of Energy to explore 'what-if' scenarios in the immediate aftermath of the accidents.

  4. Estimation of total released amount of Cs-137 and Cs-134 derived from TEPCO-FNPP1 accident into the North Pacific Ocean by using optimal interpolation analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Inomata, Yayoi; Aoyama, Michio; Tsubono, Takaki; Tsumune, Daisuke; Hirose, Katsumi

    2015-04-01

    The oceanic distribution of Cs-137 and Cs-134 released from the Tokyo Electric Power Company-Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (TEPCO-FNPP1) accident were investigated by using the optimal interpolation (OI) analysis. The two domains (open ocean, >141.5°E; coastal region near the TEPCO-FNPP1, <141.5°E) were set to the OI analysis. During the period from end of March to early of April 2011, extremely high activities of Cs-137 and Cs-134 in seawater were concentrated along the coast near the TEPCO-FNPP1. The high activities area spread to the region of 165°E with a latitudinal center of 40°N in the western North Pacific Ocean. Atmospheric deposition is also cause to high activities in the region between 180° and 130° W in the North Pacific Ocean. The total inventory of FNPP1-released Cs-134 in the North Pacific Ocean is estimated to be 15.2±1.8 PBq. In these, about half (8.3±1.8 PBq) of the total released Cs-134 amount existed in the coastal region near the TEPCO-FNPP1. It appeared that the total OICs134 inventory, which is defined as a total Cs-134 inventory in the coastal area near the TEPCO-FNPP1, is controlled by direct release, atmospheric deposition, and coastal current system. Leak of stagnant water induced by heavy rainfall would also cause the increase of the total OICs134 inventory. After the direct discharge of the contaminated water ceased on 6 April, 2011, the total OICs134 inventory exponentially with a half-time of 4.2±0.5 days and became to about 2.0±0.4 PBq at the middle of May 2011. Considering that the Cs-134/Cs-137 activity ratios for the FNPP1 accident were very close to one (0.99±0.03) and extremely uniform during the first month, the total amount of Cs-137 released by the TEPCO-FNPP1 accident reached to 20% of a current North Pacific inventory (60 PBq, Aoyama et al., 2012) of bomb-derived Cs-137 injected in the 1950s and early 1960s.

  5. A Nodal Kinetics and Thermohydraulics Analysis (NOKTA) Code for Analyzing Rod-Ejection Accidents and Other Transients in Nuclear Power Reactor Cores

    SciTech Connect

    Kaya, Sadi; Yavuz, Hasbi

    2000-01-15

    For analyzing nuclear power reactor core transients, a three-dimensional nodal kinetics and thermohydraulics code, NOKTA, was developed. Nodal kinetics calculation is based on a one-group neutron diffusion approach. Thermal-hydraulics analysis is handled as in the COBRA-IV-I code. The NOKTA code was designed for analyzing especially large reactivity accidents, such as sudden rod ejection. It can also analyze intermediate transients, such as sharp power changes that may initiate xenon oscillations, and slow transients, such as boric acid density changes in the flow. The code dimensions are set at 125 subchannels and 30 axial levels. Calculation starts with a saturated xenon density, one-group neutronics parameters, and a flux profile, which is required as an input. Initially, k{sub eff} of each computation cell is set to unity.

  6. Persistence of airline accidents.

    PubMed

    Barros, Carlos Pestana; Faria, Joao Ricardo; Gil-Alana, Luis Alberiko

    2010-10-01

    This paper expands on air travel accident research by examining the relationship between air travel accidents and airline traffic or volume in the period from 1927-2006. The theoretical model is based on a representative airline company that aims to maximise its profits, and it utilises a fractional integration approach in order to determine whether there is a persistent pattern over time with respect to air accidents and air traffic. Furthermore, the paper analyses how airline accidents are related to traffic using a fractional cointegration approach. It finds that airline accidents are persistent and that a (non-stationary) fractional cointegration relationship exists between total airline accidents and airline passengers, airline miles and airline revenues, with shocks that affect the long-run equilibrium disappearing in the very long term. Moreover, this relation is negative, which might be due to the fact that air travel is becoming safer and there is greater competition in the airline industry. Policy implications are derived for countering accident events, based on competition and regulation.

  7. iWitness pollution map: crowdsourcing petrochemical accident research.

    PubMed

    Bera, Risha; Hrybyk, Anna

    2013-01-01

    Community members living near any one of Louisiana's 160 chemical plants or refineries have always said that accidents occurring in these petrochemical facilities significantly impact their health and safety. This article reviews the iWitness Pollution Map tool and Rapid Response Team (RRT) approach led by the Louisiana Bucket Brigade, an environmental nonprofit group, and their effectiveness in documenting these health and safety impacts during petrochemical accidents. Analysis of a January 2013 RRT deployment in Chalmette, LA, showed increased documentation of current petrochemical accidents and suggested increased preparedness to report future accidents. The RRT model encourages government response and enforcement agencies to integrate with organized community groups to fully document the impacts during ongoing accidents, lead a more timely response to the accident, and prevent future accidents from occurring.

  8. Laser-based flow cytometric analysis of genotoxicity of humans exposed to ionizing radiation during the Chernobyl accident

    SciTech Connect

    Jensen, R.H.; Bigbee, W.L.; Langlois, R.G.; Grant, S.G. ); Pleshanov, P.G. ); Chirkov, A.A. ); Pilinskaya, M.A. )

    1990-09-12

    An analytical technique has been developed that allows laser-based flow cytometric measurement of the frequency of red blood cells that have lost allele-specific expression of a cell surface antigen due to genetic toxicity in bone marrow precursor cells. Previous studies demonstrated a correlation of such effects with the exposure of each individual to mutagenic phenomena, such as ionizing radiation, and the effects can persist for the lifetime of each individual. During the emergency response to the nuclear power plant accident at Chernobyl, Ukraine, USSR, a number of people were exposed to whole body doses of ionizing radiation. Some of these individuals were tested with this laser-based assay and found to express a dose-dependent increase in the frequency of variant red blood cells that appears to be a persistent biological effect. All data indicate that this assay might well be used as a biodosimeter to estimate radiation dose and also as an element to be used for estimating the risk of each individual to develop cancer due to radiation exposure. 17 refs., 5 figs.

  9. [Prevention of bicycle accidents].

    PubMed

    Zwipp, H; Barthel, P; Bönninger, J; Bürkle, H; Hagemeister, C; Hannawald, L; Huhn, R; Kühn, M; Liers, H; Maier, R; Otte, D; Prokop, G; Seeck, A; Sturm, J; Unger, T

    2015-04-01

    For a very precise analysis of all injured bicyclists in Germany it would be important to have definitions for "severely injured", "seriously injured" and "critically injured". By this, e.g., two-thirds of surgically treated bicyclists who are not registered by the police could become available for a general analysis. Elderly bicyclists (> 60 years) are a minority (10 %) but represent a majority (50 %) of all fatalities. They profit most by wearing a helmet and would be less injured by using special bicycle bags, switching on their hearing aids and following all traffic rules. E-bikes are used more and more (145 % more in 2012 vs. 2011) with 600,000 at the end of 2011 and are increasingly involved in accidents but still have a lack of legislation. So even for pedelecs 45 with 500 W and a possible speed of 45 km/h there is still no legislative demand for the use of a protecting helmet. 96 % of all injured cyclists in Germany had more than 0.5 ‰ alcohol in their blood, 86 % more than 1.1 ‰ and 59 % more than 1.7 ‰. Fatalities are seen in 24.2 % of cases without any collision partner. Therefore the ADFC calls for a limit of 1.1 ‰. Some virtual studies conclude that integrated sensors in bicycle helmets which would interact with sensors in cars could prevent collisions or reduce the severity of injury by stopping the cars automatically. Integrated sensors in cars with opening angles of 180° enable about 93 % of all bicyclists to be detected leading to a high rate of injury avoidance and/or mitigation. Hanging lamps reduce with 35 % significantly bicycle accidents for children, traffic education for children and special trainings for elderly bicyclists are also recommended as prevention tools. As long as helmet use for bicyclists in Germany rates only 9 % on average and legislative orders for using a helmet will not be in force in the near future, coming up campaigns seem to be necessary to be promoted by the Deutscher

  10. [Prevention of bicycle accidents].

    PubMed

    Zwipp, H; Barthel, P; Bönninger, J; Bürkle, H; Hagemeister, C; Hannawald, L; Huhn, R; Kühn, M; Liers, H; Maier, R; Otte, D; Prokop, G; Seeck, A; Sturm, J; Unger, T

    2015-04-01

    For a very precise analysis of all injured bicyclists in Germany it would be important to have definitions for "severely injured", "seriously injured" and "critically injured". By this, e.g., two-thirds of surgically treated bicyclists who are not registered by the police could become available for a general analysis. Elderly bicyclists (> 60 years) are a minority (10 %) but represent a majority (50 %) of all fatalities. They profit most by wearing a helmet and would be less injured by using special bicycle bags, switching on their hearing aids and following all traffic rules. E-bikes are used more and more (145 % more in 2012 vs. 2011) with 600,000 at the end of 2011 and are increasingly involved in accidents but still have a lack of legislation. So even for pedelecs 45 with 500 W and a possible speed of 45 km/h there is still no legislative demand for the use of a protecting helmet. 96 % of all injured cyclists in Germany had more than 0.5 ‰ alcohol in their blood, 86 % more than 1.1 ‰ and 59 % more than 1.7 ‰. Fatalities are seen in 24.2 % of cases without any collision partner. Therefore the ADFC calls for a limit of 1.1 ‰. Some virtual studies conclude that integrated sensors in bicycle helmets which would interact with sensors in cars could prevent collisions or reduce the severity of injury by stopping the cars automatically. Integrated sensors in cars with opening angles of 180° enable about 93 % of all bicyclists to be detected leading to a high rate of injury avoidance and/or mitigation. Hanging lamps reduce with 35 % significantly bicycle accidents for children, traffic education for children and special trainings for elderly bicyclists are also recommended as prevention tools. As long as helmet use for bicyclists in Germany rates only 9 % on average and legislative orders for using a helmet will not be in force in the near future, coming up campaigns seem to be necessary to be promoted by the Deutscher

  11. Accident resistant transport container

    DOEpatents

    Anderson, J.A.; Cole, K.K.

    The invention relates to a container for the safe air transport of plutonium having several intermediate wood layers and a load spreader intermediate an inner container and an outer shell for mitigation of shock during a hypothetical accident.

  12. Accident resistant transport container

    DOEpatents

    Andersen, John A.; Cole, James K.

    1980-01-01

    The invention relates to a container for the safe air transport of plutonium having several intermediate wood layers and a load spreader intermediate an inner container and an outer shell for mitigation of shock during a hypothetical accident.

  13. Safety Is No Accident.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Christiansen, Monty L.

    1985-01-01

    Liability suits involving accidents in park and recreation areas are expensive and intangible costs are incalculable. Risk management practices related to park planning, personnel, and administrative practices are discussed. (MT)

  14. Accident management information needs

    SciTech Connect

    Hanson, D.J.; Ward, L.W.; Nelson, W.R.; Meyer, O.R. )

    1990-04-01

    In support of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Accident Management Research Program, a methodology has been developed for identifying the plant information needs necessary for personnel involved in the management of an accident to diagnose that an accident is in progress, select and implement strategies to prevent or mitigate the accident, and monitor the effectiveness of these strategies. This report describes the methodology and presents an application of this methodology to a Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) with a large dry containment. A risk-important severe accident sequence for a PWR is used to examine the capability of the existing measurements to supply the necessary information. The method includes an assessment of the effects of the sequence on the measurement availability including the effects of environmental conditions. The information needs and capabilities identified using this approach are also intended to form the basis for more comprehensive information needs assessment performed during the analyses and development of specific strategies for use in accident management prevention and mitigation. 3 refs., 16 figs., 7 tabs.

  15. [Socioecological determinants of the risk of accidents in young pedestrians].

    PubMed

    Joly, M F; Foggin, P; Pless, I

    1991-01-01

    We studied all traffic accidents to pedestrians under age 15 which occurred on the Island of Montreal during an eighteen months period. Data were collected from eleven hospitals and completed with accident police records. A spatial quadrat analysis, a Comparative Accident Index, and a comparative analysis of the means of different socio-ecological variables between high and low risk accident areas revealed interesting patterns. The location of traffic accidents is not random but rather presents a particular spatial structure. High risk zones are characterized by dense population, fast-moving traffic, and the absence of parks. Accidents often take place on two-way streets, far from traffic lights, on dry surfaces, in good weather, and with good visibility. The socio-economic status of the victim's family as measured by education, income, and unemployment, tends to be low. More boys than girls are victims. Children are often injured while getting out of a car or crossing unconventionally. PMID:1754700

  16. Microbial life detection with minimal assumptions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kounaves, Samuel P.; Noll, Rebecca A.; Buehler, Martin G.; Hecht, Michael H.; Lankford, Kurt; West, Steven J.

    2002-02-01

    To produce definitive and unambiguous results, any life detection experiment must make minimal assumptions about the nature of extraterrestrial life. The only criteria that fits this definition is the ability to reproduce and in the process create a disequilibrium in the chemical and redox environment. The Life Detection Array (LIDA), an instrument proposed for the 2007 NASA Mars Scout Mission, and in the future for the Jovian moons, enables such an experiment. LIDA responds to minute biogenic chemical and physical changes in two identical 'growth' chambers. The sensitivity is provided by two differentially monitored electrochemical sensor arrays. Growth in one of the chambers alters the chemistry and ionic properties and results in a signal. This life detection system makes minimal assumptions; that after addition of water the microorganism replicates and in the process will produce small changes in its immediate surroundings by consuming, metabolizing, and excreting a number of molecules and/or ionic species. The experiment begins by placing an homogenized split-sample of soil or water into each chamber, adding water if soil, sterilizing via high temperature, and equilibrating. In the absence of any microorganism in either chamber, no signal will be detected. The inoculation of one chamber with even a few microorganisms which reproduce, will create a sufficient disequilibrium in the system (compared to the control) to be detectable. Replication of the experiment and positive results would lead to a definitive conclusion of biologically induced changes. The split sample and the nanogram inoculation eliminates chemistry as a causal agent.

  17. Water resources of Assumption Parish, Louisiana

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Prakken, Lawrence B.; Lovelace, John K.

    2013-01-01

    Information concerning the availability, use, and quality of water in Assumption Parish, Louisiana, is critical for proper water-supply management. The purpose of this fact sheet is to present information that can be used by water managers, parish residents, and others for management of this vital resource. Information on the availability, past and current use, use trends, and water quality from groundwater and surface-water sources in the parish is presented. Previously published reports and data stored in the U.S. Geological Survey’s National Water Information System (http://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis) are the primary sources of the information presented here. In 2010, about 21.4 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) of water were withdrawn in Assumption Parish, including about 12.4 Mgal/d from surface-water sources and 9.03 Mgal/d from groundwater sources. Withdrawals for industrial use accounted for about 16.4 Mgal/d or 76 percent of the total water withdrawn. Other categories of use included public supply, rural domestic, livestock, general irrigation, and aquaculture.Water-use data collected at 5-year intervals from 1960 to 2010 indicated that water withdrawals peaked in 2000 at about 29.7 Mgal/d.

  18. System response of a DOE Defense Program package in a transportation accident environment

    SciTech Connect

    Chen, T.F.; Hovingh, J.; Kimura, C.Y.

    1992-10-15

    The system response in a transportation accident environment is an element to be considered in an overall Transportation System Risk Assessment (TSRA) framework. The system response analysis uses the accident conditions and the subsequent accident progression analysis to develop the accident source term, which in turn, is used in the consequence analysis. This paper proposes a methodology for the preparation of the system response aspect of the TSRA.

  19. Needs and fears of young people presenting at accident and emergency department following an act of self-harm: secondary analysis of qualitative data

    PubMed Central

    Owens, Christabel; Hansford, Lorraine; Sharkey, Siobhan; Ford, Tamsin

    2016-01-01

    Background Presentation at an accident and emergency (A&E) department is a key opportunity to engage with a young person who self-harms. The needs of this vulnerable group and their fears about presenting to healthcare services, including A&E, are poorly understood. Aims To examine young people's perceptions of A&E treatment following self-harm and their views on what constitutes a positive clinical encounter. Method Secondary analysis of qualitative data from an experimental online discussion forum. Threads selected for secondary analysis represent the views of 31 young people aged 16–25 with experience of self-harm. Results Participants reported avoiding A&E whenever possible, based on their own and others' previous poor experiences. When forced to seek emergency care, they did so with feelings of shame and unworthiness. These feelings were reinforced when they received what they perceived as punitive treatment from A&E staff, perpetuating a cycle of shame, avoidance and further self-harm. Positive encounters were those in which they received ‘treatment as usual’, i.e. non-discriminatory care, delivered with kindness, which had the potential to challenge negative self-evaluation and break the cycle. Conclusions The clinical needs of young people who self-harm continue to demand urgent attention. Further hypothesis testing and trials of different models of care delivery for this vulnerable group are warranted. PMID:26450583

  20. Teaching Lessons in Exclusion: Researchers' Assumptions and the Ideology of Normality

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Benincasa, Luciana

    2012-01-01

    Filling in a research questionnaire means coming into contact with the researchers' assumptions. In this sense filling in a questionnaire may be described as a learning situation. In this paper I carry out discourse analysis of selected questionnaire items from a number of studies, in order to highlight underlying values and assumptions, and their…

  1. Utilization of accident databases and fuzzy sets to estimate frequency of HazMat transport accidents.

    PubMed

    Qiao, Yuanhua; Keren, Nir; Mannan, M Sam

    2009-08-15

    Risk assessment and management of transportation of hazardous materials (HazMat) require the estimation of accident frequency. This paper presents a methodology to estimate hazardous materials transportation accident frequency by utilizing publicly available databases and expert knowledge. The estimation process addresses route-dependent and route-independent variables. Negative binomial regression is applied to an analysis of the Department of Public Safety (DPS) accident database to derive basic accident frequency as a function of route-dependent variables, while the effects of route-independent variables are modeled by fuzzy logic. The integrated methodology provides the basis for an overall transportation risk analysis, which can be used later to develop a decision support system.

  2. Utilization of accident databases and fuzzy sets to estimate frequency of HazMat transport accidents.

    PubMed

    Qiao, Yuanhua; Keren, Nir; Mannan, M Sam

    2009-08-15

    Risk assessment and management of transportation of hazardous materials (HazMat) require the estimation of accident frequency. This paper presents a methodology to estimate hazardous materials transportation accident frequency by utilizing publicly available databases and expert knowledge. The estimation process addresses route-dependent and route-independent variables. Negative binomial regression is applied to an analysis of the Department of Public Safety (DPS) accident database to derive basic accident frequency as a function of route-dependent variables, while the effects of route-independent variables are modeled by fuzzy logic. The integrated methodology provides the basis for an overall transportation risk analysis, which can be used later to develop a decision support system. PMID:19250750

  3. Injuries are not accidents

    PubMed Central

    Gutiérrez, María Isabel

    2014-01-01

    Injuries are the result of an acute exposure to exhort of energy or a consequence of a deficiency in a vital element that exceeds physiological thresholds resulting threatens life. They are classified as intentional or unintentional. Injuries are considered a global health issue because they cause more than 5 million deaths per year worldwide and they are an important contributor to the burden of disease, especially affecting people of low socioeconomic status in low- and middle-income countries. A common misconception exists where injuries are thought to be the same as accidents; however, accidents are largely used as chance events, without taken in consideration that all these are preventable. This review discusses injuries and accidents in the context of road traffic and emphasizes injuries as preventable events. An understanding of the essence of injuries enables the standardization of terminology in public use and facilitates the development of a culture of prevention among all of us. PMID:25386040

  4. Accident prevention manual

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1998-05-01

    Among the many common needs and goals are the safety and well-being of families, ourselves, fellow employees, and the continuing success of this organization. To these ends--minimizing human suffering and economic waste--the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) Accident Prevention Program and this Accident Prevention Manual (APM) are dedicated. The BPA Accident Prevention Program is revised as necessary to ensure compliance with relevant Federal safety and health standards. The mandatory rules herein express minimum requirements for dealing with the principal hazards inherent in daily work activities. These and other written requirements, which neither can nor should provide complete coverage of all work situations, must be continually reinforced through the sound and mature safety judgments of all workers on each assigned task. In the event of conflicting judgments, the more conservative interpretation shall prevail pending review and resolution by management.

  5. Analysis of a postulated radiological accident from mixed waste operations at existing hazardous waste management facilities at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory

    SciTech Connect

    Salazar, R.J.; Mecozzi, J.M.; Taie, M.N.

    1990-02-01

    The existing Hazardous Waste Management Facilities (HWMF) which are located at the southeast corner of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) store, treat and prepare for disposal hazardous, mixed and radioactive wastes generated by the programmatic activities at the Laboratory. Accidents during the facility operations can be postulated that potentially could affect individuals and populations outside the HWMF. This report evaluates impacts from the maximum credible accident that might result from mixed waste operations at the HWMF units requiring a RCRA and California Hazardous Waste Control Act Part B permit. This postulated accident was considered for the purpose of evaluating maximum potential consequences and to determine if an accidental release of radionuclides would result in unacceptable doses to on-site workers and the public. In determining a maximum credible accident, primary consideration was given to the postulated situations potentially having the greatest health impacts to the public. The health risk assessment evaluates releases during normal operations. 21 refs., 2 figs., 4 tabs.

  6. Quality function deployment applied to local traffic accident reduction.

    PubMed

    Sohn, S Y

    1999-11-01

    One of the major tasks of police stations is the management of local road traffic accidents. Proper prevention policy which reflects the local accident characteristics could immensely help individual police stations in decreasing various severity levels of road traffic accidents. In order to relate accident variation to local driving environmental characteristics, we use both cluster analysis and Poisson regression. The fitted result at the level of each cluster for each type of accident severity is utilized as an input to quality function deployment. Quality function deployment (QFD) has been applied to customer satisfaction in various industrial quality improvement settings, where several types of customer requirements are related to various control factors. We show how QFD enables one to set priorities on various road accident control policies to which each police station has to pay particular attention.

  7. Quality function deployment applied to local traffic accident reduction.

    PubMed

    Sohn, S Y

    1999-11-01

    One of the major tasks of police stations is the management of local road traffic accidents. Proper prevention policy which reflects the local accident characteristics could immensely help individual police stations in decreasing various severity levels of road traffic accidents. In order to relate accident variation to local driving environmental characteristics, we use both cluster analysis and Poisson regression. The fitted result at the level of each cluster for each type of accident severity is utilized as an input to quality function deployment. Quality function deployment (QFD) has been applied to customer satisfaction in various industrial quality improvement settings, where several types of customer requirements are related to various control factors. We show how QFD enables one to set priorities on various road accident control policies to which each police station has to pay particular attention. PMID:10487350

  8. An exploration of the utility of mathematical modeling predicting fatigue from sleep/wake history and circadian phase applied in accident analysis and prevention: the crash of Comair Flight 5191.

    PubMed

    Pruchnicki, Shawn A; Wu, Lora J; Belenky, Gregory

    2011-05-01

    On 27 August 2006 at 0606 eastern daylight time (EDT) at Bluegrass Airport in Lexington, KY (LEX), the flight crew of Comair Flight 5191 inadvertently attempted to take off from a general aviation runway too short for their aircraft. The aircraft crashed killing 49 of the 50 people on board. To better understand this accident and to aid in preventing similar accidents, we applied mathematical modeling predicting fatigue-related degradation in performance for the Air Traffic Controller on-duty at the time of the crash. To provide the necessary input to the model, we attempted to estimate circadian phase and sleep/wake histories for the Captain, First Officer, and Air Traffic Controller. We were able to estimate with confidence the circadian phase for each. We were able to estimate with confidence the sleep/wake history for the Air Traffic Controller, but unable to do this for the Captain and First Officer. Using the sleep/wake history estimates for the Air Traffic Controller as input, the mathematical modeling predicted moderate fatigue-related performance degradation at the time of the crash. This prediction was supported by the presence of what appeared to be fatigue-related behaviors in the Air Traffic Controller during the 30 min prior to and in the minutes after the crash. Our modeling results do not definitively establish fatigue in the Air Traffic Controller as a cause of the accident, rather they suggest that had he been less fatigued he might have detected Comair Flight 5191's lining up on the wrong runway. We were not able to perform a similar analysis for the Captain and First Officer because we were not able to estimate with confidence their sleep/wake histories. Our estimates of sleep/wake history and circadian rhythm phase for the Air Traffic Controller might generalize to other air traffic controllers and to flight crew operating in the early morning hours at LEX. Relative to other times of day, the modeling results suggest an elevated risk of fatigue

  9. Environmental aftermath of the radiation accident at Tomsk-7

    SciTech Connect

    Porfiriev, B.N. |

    1996-01-01

    An analysis is presented of the environmental effects of the most serious radiation accident recorded after Chernobyl, which occurred in the formerly secret town of Tomsk-7 in Siberia, Russia, on 6, April 1993. Fortunately, it appears not to have become a major industrial crisis or disaster. The causes of the accident are described. It is argued that a mixture of both objective and subjective prerequisites, including specific human, organizational, and technological factors, were responsible for the explosion or directly facilitated it. The Tomsk-7 accident`s ecological, medical, social, and psychological consequences are discussed. 33 refs., 1 figs., 1 tab.

  10. Strategies for dealing with resistance to recommendations from accident investigations.

    PubMed

    Lundberg, Jonas; Rollenhagen, Carl; Hollnagel, Erik; Rankin, Amy

    2012-03-01

    Accident investigation reports usually lead to a set of recommendations for change. These recommendations are, however, sometimes resisted for reasons such as various aspects of ethics and power. When accident investigators are aware of this, they use several strategies to overcome the resistance. This paper describes strategies for dealing with four different types of resistance to change. The strategies were derived from qualitative analysis of 25 interviews with Swedish accident investigators from seven application domains. The main contribution of the paper is a better understanding of effective strategies for achieving change associated with accident investigation. PMID:22269530

  11. The Fukushima radiation accident: consequences for radiation accident medical management.

    PubMed

    Meineke, Viktor; Dörr, Harald

    2012-08-01

    The March 2011 radiation accident in Fukushima, Japan, is a textbook example of a radiation accident of global significance. In view of the global dimensions of the accident, it is important to consider the lessons learned. In this context, emphasis must be placed on consequences for planning appropriate medical management for radiation accidents including, for example, estimates of necessary human and material resources. The specific characteristics of the radiation accident in Fukushima are thematically divided into five groups: the exceptional environmental influences on the Fukushima radiation accident, particular circumstances of the accident, differences in risk perception, changed psychosocial factors in the age of the Internet and globalization, and the ignorance of the effects of ionizing radiation both among the general public and health care professionals. Conclusions like the need for reviewing international communication, interfacing, and interface definitions will be drawn from the Fukushima radiation accident. PMID:22951483

  12. The Fukushima radiation accident: consequences for radiation accident medical management.

    PubMed

    Meineke, Viktor; Dörr, Harald

    2012-08-01

    The March 2011 radiation accident in Fukushima, Japan, is a textbook example of a radiation accident of global significance. In view of the global dimensions of the accident, it is important to consider the lessons learned. In this context, emphasis must be placed on consequences for planning appropriate medical management for radiation accidents including, for example, estimates of necessary human and material resources. The specific characteristics of the radiation accident in Fukushima are thematically divided into five groups: the exceptional environmental influences on the Fukushima radiation accident, particular circumstances of the accident, differences in risk perception, changed psychosocial factors in the age of the Internet and globalization, and the ignorance of the effects of ionizing radiation both among the general public and health care professionals. Conclusions like the need for reviewing international communication, interfacing, and interface definitions will be drawn from the Fukushima radiation accident.

  13. ANALYSIS OF LABOUR ACCIDENTS OCCURRING IN DISASTER RESTORATION WORK FOLLOWING THE NIIGATA CHUETSU EARTHQUAKE (2004) AND THE NIIGATA CHUETSU-OKI EARTHQUAKE (2007)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Itoh, Kazuya; Noda, Masashi; Kikkawa, Naotaka; Hori, Tomohito; Tamate, Satoshi; Toyosawa, Yasuo; Suemasa, Naoaki

    Labour accidents in disaster-relief and disaster restoration work following the Niigata Chuetsu Earthquake (2004) and the Niigata Chuetsu-oki Earthquake (2007) were analysed and characterised in order to raise awareness of the risks and hazards in such work. The Niigata Chuetsu-oki Earthquake affected houses and buildings rather than roads and railways, which are generally disrupted due to landslides or slope failures caused by earthquakes. In this scenario, the predominant type of accident is a "fall to lower level," which increases mainly due to the fact that labourers are working to repair houses and buildings. On the other hand, landslides and slope failures were much more prevalent in the Niigata Chuetsu Earthquake, resulting in more accidents occurring in geotechnical works rather than in construction works. Therefore, care should be taken in preventing "fall to lower level" accidents associated with repair work on the roofs of low-rise houses, "cut or abrasion" accidents due to the demolition of damaged houses and "caught in or compressed by equipment" accidents in road works and water and sewage works.

  14. [Analysis of non-confraternity sports accidents in the surgical department of a former district hospital during the period of 2 years].

    PubMed

    Raschka, Ch; Raschka, S; Peikert, T

    2009-12-01

    This epidemiological study analyses all n = 1,659 outpatient and inpatient non-confraternity sports accidents treated during a 2-year period in a former district hospital. The largest share with 40.6% is soccer, followed by cycling (15%), general fitness sports (7.6%), outdoor sports (6.5%), winter sports (5.5%), and riding (5.2%). Soccer injuries rise steadily until the age of 30. Of 86 horse riding accidents a total of 68 involved women, but only 18 men (ratio 8 : 2). 53% of the horse riding accidents among women concern the age group between 10 and 20 years. 70.6% (79%) of the athletes under (over) 20 years were male, 29.4% (21%) female (p < 0.05). Topographically the lower extremities represent the most affected body region in all sports (runners 84.4%, soccer players 60.2%). Most accidents occur on a Sunday. The most common diagnosis is contusion, most commonly in martial arts (60.8%), followed by horse riding (51%). There is an astonishing dominance of soccer accidents given the fact that this study records all athletes, not just club athletes, unlike insurance studies. Important preventive measures would be a comprehensive biological training prophylaxis and the provision of communication of age-specific accident prevention proposals for the mainly affected sports. PMID:20052829

  15. [Psychological support for road accident participants: the program implementation outcome].

    PubMed

    Mikuczewska-Wośko, Aleksandra; Biłyj, Dorota; Tomczyk, Jarosław

    2009-01-01

    Road accident belongs to one of the categories of traumatic events, and can cause posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). The most common psychological consequences of road traffic accidents are the emotional disorders, cognitive deficits (disorders concentration of attention and memory function), impaired social relationships, troubles with performing work duties and physical symp-toms of stress. The article discusses the program of psychological support given to the participants of road accidents, conducted in Wroclaw, its theoretical assumptions and the mode of its implementation. Basic theoretical assumptions of the program are inter alia based on the theories of H. Selye and R. Lazarus. The authors of this article also refer to the so-called therapeutic process of education designed by Everly and Rosenfeld, who recommend that the process of developing self-responsibility be used for therapeutic purposes. This requires clarifying the exact nature of the problem, and then looking for possible remedies. The program is open to all road accident participants (victims, perpetrators, witnesses) and their families. Classes are designed to combine theory (lectures) and practice (exercises). Anxiety and cognitive processes, as well as relaxation training, interpersonal training (eg, assertiveness) and kinesiology are the major areas of activities. Psychological support provided for road accident participants is of intervention--and preventive nature; intervention, as it relates to the consequences ofa specific stressogenic event, namely a road accident; preventive, as it serves the overriding purpose--the improvement of road safety. This article presents the main findings of the program, the results of the survey evaluation, and proposals to develop psychological operations aimed at the road accidents participants.

  16. [Analysis of sports injuries covered by German occupational accident insurance associations at a former district hospital over a period of six years].

    PubMed

    Raschka, C; Raschka, S; Hellstern, M

    2008-09-01

    An epidemiological analysis was carried out of 1,126 sports injuries covered by German occupational accident insurance at a small regional hospital over a period of six years, of which 86.6% were allotted to the sport at schools. The types of sport most frequently involved were general fitness sports (n = 486), soccer (n = 137), volleyball (n = 126), gymnastics (n = 125) and basketball (n = 121). In the general fitness sports (n = 228 women/girls, n = 258 men/boys), bruising injuries dominated (47%), followed by sprains (29%), mostly involving the upper extremities (53%). In soccer injuries (proportion of woman = 15%), bruising and injuries to the lower extremities ranked first. Falls (33%) and sprains (31%) were the most common gymnastics injuries. Injuries to the upper extremities were most common in volleyball and basketball with 72% and 68% respectively. The distribution of these sports injuries more or less mirrors the distribution of sports disciplines at schools and institutions like the Federal Border Police. Sporting activity here should include preventive elements such a proprioceptive training.

  17. Evaluating Organic Aerosol Model Performance: Impact of two Embedded Assumptions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jiang, W.; Giroux, E.; Roth, H.; Yin, D.

    2004-05-01

    Organic aerosols are important due to their abundance in the polluted lower atmosphere and their impact on human health and vegetation. However, modeling organic aerosols is a very challenging task because of the complexity of aerosol composition, structure, and formation processes. Assumptions and their associated uncertainties in both models and measurement data make model performance evaluation a truly demanding job. Although some assumptions are obvious, others are hidden and embedded, and can significantly impact modeling results, possibly even changing conclusions about model performance. This paper focuses on analyzing the impact of two embedded assumptions on evaluation of organic aerosol model performance. One assumption is about the enthalpy of vaporization widely used in various secondary organic aerosol (SOA) algorithms. The other is about the conversion factor used to obtain ambient organic aerosol concentrations from measured organic carbon. These two assumptions reflect uncertainties in the model and in the ambient measurement data, respectively. For illustration purposes, various choices of the assumed values are implemented in the evaluation process for an air quality model based on CMAQ (the Community Multiscale Air Quality Model). Model simulations are conducted for the Lower Fraser Valley covering Southwest British Columbia, Canada, and Northwest Washington, United States, for a historical pollution episode in 1993. To understand the impact of the assumed enthalpy of vaporization on modeling results, its impact on instantaneous organic aerosol yields (IAY) through partitioning coefficients is analysed first. The analysis shows that utilizing different enthalpy of vaporization values causes changes in the shapes of IAY curves and in the response of SOA formation capability of reactive organic gases to temperature variations. These changes are then carried into the air quality model and cause substantial changes in the organic aerosol modeling

  18. Hawaii Bound School Safety and Accident Report 1980.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Beck, Ann E.

    An analysis of the accident experience of the Hawaii Bound School for 1980 is given in this report. Student and instructor accident reports list all injuries reported during the year, the number of times each type of injury was reported and the age range of students injured. The report makes recommendations concerning implementation of 1979…

  19. Hawaii Bound School Safety and Accident Report 1979.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Beck, Ann E.

    An analysis of the accident experience of the Hawaii Bound School for 1979 is given in this report. Student and instructor accident reports list all injuries reported during the year, the number of times each type of injury was reported and the age range of students injured. The report recommends two additional safety rules, four additional…

  20. Environmental Safety and the Prevention of Childhood Accidents.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brink, Satya

    Of 25 western countries under consideration in 1975, Canada had the worst accident record for female children and the second worst for male children. In response to this problem, the present report assembles data to present a clearer picture of the extent of the problem and begins an analysis of potential accident events as a preliminary step to…