Science.gov

Sample records for accident causal factors

  1. Causal Factors and Adverse Events of Aviation Accidents and Incidents Related to Integrated Vehicle Health Management

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Reveley, Mary S.; Briggs, Jeffrey L.; Evans, Joni K.; Jones, Sharon M.; Kurtoglu, Tolga; Leone, Karen M.; Sandifer, Carl E.

    2011-01-01

    Causal factors in aviation accidents and incidents related to system/component failure/malfunction (SCFM) were examined for Federal Aviation Regulation Parts 121 and 135 operations to establish future requirements for the NASA Aviation Safety Program s Integrated Vehicle Health Management (IVHM) Project. Data analyzed includes National Transportation Safety Board (NSTB) accident data (1988 to 2003), Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) incident data (1988 to 2003), and Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS) incident data (1993 to 2008). Failure modes and effects analyses were examined to identify possible modes of SCFM. A table of potential adverse conditions was developed to help evaluate IVHM research technologies. Tables present details of specific SCFM for the incidents and accidents. Of the 370 NTSB accidents affected by SCFM, 48 percent involved the engine or fuel system, and 31 percent involved landing gear or hydraulic failure and malfunctions. A total of 35 percent of all SCFM accidents were caused by improper maintenance. Of the 7732 FAA database incidents affected by SCFM, 33 percent involved landing gear or hydraulics, and 33 percent involved the engine and fuel system. The most frequent SCFM found in ASRS were turbine engine, pressurization system, hydraulic main system, flight management system/flight management computer, and engine. Because the IVHM Project does not address maintenance issues, and landing gear and hydraulic systems accidents are usually not fatal, the focus of research should be those SCFMs that occur in the engine/fuel and flight control/structures systems as well as power systems.

  2. Causal Factors and Adverse Conditions of Aviation Accidents and Incidents Related to Integrated Resilient Aircraft Control

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Reveley, Mary S.; Briggs, Jeffrey L.; Evans, Joni K.; Sandifer, Carl E.; Jones, Sharon Monica

    2010-01-01

    The causal factors of accidents from the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) database and incidents from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) database associated with loss of control (LOC) were examined for four types of operations (i.e., Federal Aviation Regulation Part 121, Part 135 Scheduled, Part 135 Nonscheduled, and Part 91) for the years 1988 to 2004. In-flight LOC is a serious aviation problem. Well over half of the LOC accidents included at least one fatality (80 percent in Part 121), and roughly half of all aviation fatalities in the studied time period occurred in conjunction with LOC. An adverse events table was updated to provide focus to the technology validation strategy of the Integrated Resilient Aircraft Control (IRAC) Project. The table contains three types of adverse conditions: failure, damage, and upset. Thirteen different adverse condition subtypes were gleaned from the Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS), the FAA Accident and Incident database, and the NTSB database. The severity and frequency of the damage conditions, initial test conditions, and milestones references are also provided.

  3. A Longitudinal Analysis of the Causal Factors in Major Maritime Accidents in the USA and Canada (1996-2006)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Johnson, C. W.; Holloway, C, M.

    2007-01-01

    Accident reports provide important insights into the causes and contributory factors leading to particular adverse events. In contrast, this paper provides an analysis that extends across the findings presented over ten years investigations into maritime accidents by both the US National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) and Canadian Transportation Safety Board (TSB). The purpose of the study was to assess the comparative frequency of a range of causal factors in the reporting of adverse events. In order to communicate our findings, we introduce J-H graphs as a means of representing the proportion of causes and contributory factors associated with human error, equipment failure and other high level classifications in longitudinal studies of accident reports. Our results suggest the proportion of causal and contributory factors attributable to direct human error may be very much smaller than has been suggested elsewhere in the human factors literature. In contrast, more attention should be paid to wider systemic issues, including the managerial and regulatory context of maritime operations.

  4. Human factors identification and classification related to accidents'causality on hand injuries in the manufacturing industry.

    PubMed

    Reyes-Martínez, Rosa María; Maldonado-Macías, Aide; Prado-León, Lilia Roselia

    2012-01-01

    The causes of occupational accidents from the perspective of human factors have been a subject which has received little attention into the field of scientific research. The aim of this research was to identify and classify the human factors that influence human errors and failures that cause accidents and injuries specifically on hands. Available studies related to the topic have been developed mainly for aerospace applications and are found insufficient to explain accidents causalities in the manufacturing industry. This research was developed in the assembly industry of automotive harnesses and was conducted following a mixed Cognitive Anthropological approach. This study was developed in two phases. During the first qualitative phase, participants freely listed their knowledge to identify elements of the cultural domain, then and in the second phase they performed the successive pile sort technique for the collection data to classify elements in the cultural domain. Statistical models like Cluster Analysis and Multidimensional Scaling were applied for results' validation purposes. As results, 70 different human factors were identified and in the second phase they were classified into 4 main categories which were: human error, unsafe conditions, individual factors, and organizational factors. Statistical methods validated these results. PMID:22317198

  5. Weather Information Communications (WINCOMM) Project: Dissemination of Weather Information for the Reduction of Aviation Weather-Related Accident Causal Factors

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jarrell, Michael; Tanger, Thomas

    2004-01-01

    Weather Information Communications (WINCOMM) is part of the Weather Accident Prevention (WxAP) Project, which is part of the NASA's Aviation Safety and Security Program. The goals of WINCOMM are to facilitate the exchange of tactical and strategic weather information between air and ground. This viewgraph presentation provides information on data link decision factors, architectures, validation goals. WINCOMM is capable of providing en-route communication air-to-ground, ground-to-air, and air-to-air, even on international or intercontinental flights. The presentation also includes information on the capacity, cost, and development of data links.

  6. Aircraft Loss of Control Causal Factors and Mitigation Challenges

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jacobson, Steven R.

    2010-01-01

    Loss of control is the leading cause of jet fatalities worldwide. Aside from their frequency of occurrence, accidents resulting from loss of aircraft control seize the public s attention by yielding a large number of fatalities in a single event. In response to the rising threat to aviation safety, the NASA Aviation Safety Program has conducted a study of the loss of control problem. This study gathered four types of information pertaining to loss of control accidents: (1) statistical data; (2) individual accident reports that cite loss of control as a contributing factor; (3) previous meta-analyses of loss of control accidents; and (4) inputs solicited from aircraft manufacturers, air carriers, researchers, and other industry stakeholders. Using these information resources, the study team identified the causal factors that were cited in the greatest number of loss of control accidents, and which were emphasized most by industry stakeholders. This report describes the study approach, the key causal factors for aircraft loss of control, and recommended mitigation strategies to make near-term impacts, mid-term impacts, and Next Generation Air Transportation System impacts on the loss of control accident statistics

  7. A Technique for Showing Causal Arguments in Accident Reports

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Holloway, C. M.; Johnson, C. W.

    2005-01-01

    In the prototypical accident report, specific findings, particularly those related to causes and contributing factors, are usually written out explicitly and clearly. Also, the evidence upon which these findings are based is typically explained in detail. Often lacking, however, is any explicit discussion, description, or depiction of the arguments that connect the findings and the evidence. That is, the reports do not make clear why the investigators believe that the specific evidence they found necessarily leads to the particular findings they enumerated. This paper shows how graphical techniques can be used to depict relevant arguments supporting alternate positions on the causes of a complex road-traffic accident.

  8. [Safety assessment of a Brazilian company based on analysis of work accidents by the causal tree method].

    PubMed

    Binder, M C; Pham, D; de Almeida, I M

    1998-01-01

    We present here the results of a study of 21 work-related accidents that occurred in a Brazilian manufacturing company. The aim was to assess the safety level of the company to improve its work accident prevention policy. In the last 6 months of 1992 and 1993, all accidents resulting in 15 days' absence from work, reported for social security purposes, were analyzed using the INRS causal tree method (ADC) and a questionnaire completed on site. Potential risk factors for accidents were identified based on the specific factors highlighted by the ADC. More universal trees were also compiled for the safety assessment. Three hundred and thirty specific accident factors were recorded (mean of 15.71 per accident). This is consistent with there being multiple causes of accidents rather than the assertion of Brazilian business safety departments that accidents are due to "dangerous" or "unsafe" behavior. Introducing the idea of culpability into accidents prevents the implementation of an appropriate information feedback process, essential for effective prevention. However, the large number of accidents related to "material" (78%) and "environment" (70%) indicates that working conditions are poor. This shows that the technical risks, mostly due to unsafe machinery and equipment are not being dealt with. Seventy-five potential accident factors were identified. Of these, 35% were "organizational", a high proportion for the company studied. Improvisation occurs at all levels, particularly at the organizational level. This is thus a major determinant for entire series of, if not most, accident situations. The poor condition of equipment also plays a major role in accidents. The effects of poor equipment on safety exacerbate the organizational shortcomings. The company's safety intervention policy should improve the management of human resources (rules designating particular workers for particular workstations; instructions for the safe operation of machines and equipment

  9. Significant increase in trisomy 21 in Berlin nine months after the Chernobyl reactor accident: temporal correlation or causal relation?

    PubMed Central

    Sperling, K.; Pelz, J.; Wegner, R. D.; Dörries, A.; Grüters, A.; Mikkelsen, M.

    1994-01-01

    OBJECTIVE--To assess whether the increased prevalence of trisomy 21 in West Berlin in January 1987 might have been causally related to exposure to ionising radiation as a result of the Chernobyl reactor accident or was merely a chance event. DESIGN--Analysis of monthly prevalence of trisomy 21 in West Berlin from January 1980 to December 1989. SETTING--Confines of West Berlin. RESULTS--Owing to the former "island" situation of West Berlin and its well organised health services, ascertainment of trisomy 21 was thought to be almost complete. A cluster of 12 cases occurred in January 1987 as compared with two or three expected. After exclusion of factors that might have explained the increase, including maternal age distribution, only exposure to radiation as a result of the Chernobyl reactor accident remained. In six of seven cases that could be studied cytogenetically the extra chromosome was of maternal origin, confirming that nondisjunction had occurred at about the time of conception. CONCLUSION--On the basis of two assumptions--(a) that maternal meiosis is an error prone process susceptible to exogenous factors at the time of conception; (b) that owing to the high prevalence of iodine deficiency in Berlin a large amount of iodine-131 would have been accumulated over a short period--it is concluded that the increased prevalence of trisomy 21 in West Berlin in January 1987 was causally related to a short period of exposure to ionising radiation as a result of the Chernobyl reactor accident. PMID:8044094

  10. An assessment of predominant causal factors of pilot deviations that contribute to runway incursions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Campbell, Denado M.

    The aim of this study was to identify predominant causal factors of pilot deviations in runway incursions over a two-year period. Runway incursion reports were obtained from NASA's Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS), and a qualitative method was used by classifying and coding each report to a specific causal factor(s). The causal factors that were used were substantiated by research from the Aircraft Owner's and Pilot's Association that found that these causal factors were the most common in runway incursion incidents and accidents. An additional causal factor was also utilized to determine the significance of pilot training in relation to runway incursions. From the reports examined, it was found that miscommunication and situational awareness have the greatest impact on pilots and are most often the major causes of runway incursions. This data can be used to assist airports, airlines, and the FAA to understand trends in pilot deviations, and to find solutions for specific problem areas in runway incursion incidents.

  11. Risk and protection factors in fatal accidents.

    PubMed

    Dupont, Emmanuelle; Martensen, Heike; Papadimitriou, Eleonora; Yannis, George

    2010-03-01

    This paper aims at addressing the interest and appropriateness of performing accident severity analyses that are limited to fatal accident data. Two methodological issues are specifically discussed, namely the accident-size factors (the number of vehicles in the accident and their level of occupancy) and the comparability of the baseline risk. It is argued that - although these two issues are generally at play in accident severity analyses - their effects on, e.g., the estimation of survival probability, are exacerbated if the analysis is limited to fatal accident data. As a solution, it is recommended to control for these effects by (1) including accident-size indicators in the model, (2) focusing on different sub-groups of road-users while specifying the type of opponent in the model, so as to ensure that comparable baseline risks are worked with. These recommendations are applied in order to investigate risk and protection factors of car occupants involved in fatal accidents using data from a recently set up European Fatal Accident Investigation database (Reed and Morris, 2009). The results confirm that the estimated survival probability is affected by accident-size factors and by type of opponent. The car occupants' survival chances are negatively associated with their own age and that of their vehicle. The survival chances are also lower when seatbelt is not used. Front damage, as compared to other damaged car areas, appears to be associated with increased survival probability, but mostly in the case in which the accident opponent was another car. The interest of further investigating accident-size factors and opponent effects in fatal accidents is discussed. PMID:20159090

  12. Human Factors in Cabin Accident Investigations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chute, Rebecca D.; Rosekind, Mark R. (Technical Monitor)

    1996-01-01

    Human factors has become an integral part of the accident investigation protocol. However, much of the investigative process remains focussed on the flight deck, airframe, and power plant systems. As a consequence, little data has been collected regarding the human factors issues within and involving the cabin during an accident. Therefore, the possibility exists that contributing factors that lie within that domain may be overlooked. The FAA Office of Accident Investigation is sponsoring a two-day workshop on cabin safety accident investigation. This course, within the workshop, will be of two hours duration and will explore relevant areas of human factors research. Specifically, the three areas of discussion are: Information transfer and resource management, fatigue and other physical stressors, and the human/machine interface. Integration of these areas will be accomplished by providing a suggested checklist of specific cabin-related human factors questions for investigators to probe following an accident.

  13. Causality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pearl, Judea

    2000-03-01

    Written by one of the pre-eminent researchers in the field, this book provides a comprehensive exposition of modern analysis of causation. It shows how causality has grown from a nebulous concept into a mathematical theory with significant applications in the fields of statistics, artificial intelligence, philosophy, cognitive science, and the health and social sciences. Pearl presents a unified account of the probabilistic, manipulative, counterfactual and structural approaches to causation, and devises simple mathematical tools for analyzing the relationships between causal connections, statistical associations, actions and observations. The book will open the way for including causal analysis in the standard curriculum of statistics, artifical intelligence, business, epidemiology, social science and economics. Students in these areas will find natural models, simple identification procedures, and precise mathematical definitions of causal concepts that traditional texts have tended to evade or make unduly complicated. This book will be of interest to professionals and students in a wide variety of fields. Anyone who wishes to elucidate meaningful relationships from data, predict effects of actions and policies, assess explanations of reported events, or form theories of causal understanding and causal speech will find this book stimulating and invaluable.

  14. The Analysis of the Contribution of Human Factors to the In-Flight Loss of Control Accidents

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ancel, Ersin; Shih, Ann T.

    2012-01-01

    In-flight loss of control (LOC) is currently the leading cause of fatal accidents based on various commercial aircraft accident statistics. As the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) emerges, new contributing factors leading to LOC are anticipated. The NASA Aviation Safety Program (AvSP), along with other aviation agencies and communities are actively developing safety products to mitigate the LOC risk. This paper discusses the approach used to construct a generic integrated LOC accident framework (LOCAF) model based on a detailed review of LOC accidents over the past two decades. The LOCAF model is comprised of causal factors from the domain of human factors, aircraft system component failures, and atmospheric environment. The multiple interdependent causal factors are expressed in an Object-Oriented Bayesian belief network. In addition to predicting the likelihood of LOC accident occurrence, the system-level integrated LOCAF model is able to evaluate the impact of new safety technology products developed in AvSP. This provides valuable information to decision makers in strategizing NASA's aviation safety technology portfolio. The focus of this paper is on the analysis of human causal factors in the model, including the contributions from flight crew and maintenance workers. The Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS) taxonomy was used to develop human related causal factors. The preliminary results from the baseline LOCAF model are also presented.

  15. [Prevalence and causal factors of anemia in children in Tunisia].

    PubMed

    El Ati, Jalila; Gaigi, Sadok; Beji, Chiraz; Haddad, Samira; Cherif, Samia; Farhat, Amina; Fattoum, Slaheddine; Ben Abdeladhim, Abdeladhim

    2005-09-01

    Anemia continue to be prevalent among children under five years despite the improvement of socioeconomic and sanitary indicators. The purpose of the present cross-sectorial study is to assess the etiologic factors responsible for anemia. Knowledge of the relative importance of the different causes should form a basis for intervention strategies to prevent and control anemia. The survey covered 955 children under the age of five years, native of two regions with the highest prevalent of anemia, the Southwest and the District of Tunis. The results showed that 29% of children suffered from anemia. About 70% of them were iron deficient. The fractions of the deficiency in vitamin B12 and in folates were insignificant. Only 3% of children had chronic inflammation associated with (and possibly responsible for) their anemia A little fraction of anemia (approximately 5%) was due to thalassemia or drepanocytosis. Picawasan important causal factor of iron deficiency anemia. The parasites identified instool could not cause anemia. PMID:16383194

  16. Identifying Causal Risk Factors for Violence among Discharged Patients

    PubMed Central

    Coid, Jeremy W.; Kallis, Constantinos; Doyle, Mike; Shaw, Jenny; Ullrich, Simone

    2015-01-01

    Background Structured Professional Judgement (SPJ) is routinely administered in mental health and criminal justice settings but cannot identify violence risk above moderate accuracy. There is no current evidence that violence can be prevented using SPJ. This may be explained by routine application of predictive instead of causal statistical models when standardising SPJ instruments. Methods We carried out a prospective cohort study of 409 male and female patients discharged from medium secure services in England and Wales to the community. Measures were taken at baseline (pre-discharge), 6 and 12 months post-discharge using the Historical, Clinical and Risk-20 items version 3 (HCR-20v3) and Structural Assessment of Protective Factors (SAPROF). Information on violence was obtained via the McArthur community violence instrument and the Police National Computer. Results In a lagged model, HCR-20v3 and SAPROF items were poor predictors of violence. Eight items of the HCR-20v3 and 4 SAPROF items did not predict violent behaviour better than chance. In re-analyses considering temporal proximity of risk/ protective factors (exposure) on violence (outcome), risk was elevated due to violent ideation (OR 6.98, 95% CI 13.85–12.65, P<0.001), instability (OR 5.41, 95% CI 3.44–8.50, P<0.001), and poor coping/ stress (OR 8.35, 95% CI 4.21–16.57, P<0.001). All 3 risk factors were explanatory variables which drove the association with violent outcome. Self-control (OR 0.13, 95% CI 0.08–0.24, P<0.001) conveyed protective effects and explained the association of other protective factors with violence. Conclusions Using two standardised SPJ instruments, predictive (lagged) methods could not identify risk and protective factors which must be targeted in interventions for discharged patients with severe mental illness. Predictive methods should be abandoned if the aim is to progress from risk assessment to effective risk management and replaced by methods which identify factors

  17. A Causal Model of Factors Influencing Faculty Use of Technology

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Meyer, Katrina A.; Xu, Yonghong Jade

    2009-01-01

    Based on earlier studies using the 1999 and 2004 National Study of Postsecondary Faculty (NSOPF) data [1, 2], a causal model explaining faculty technology use was constructed. Path analysis was used to test the causal effects of age, gender, highest degree, discipline (health science or not), recent research productivity, and teaching load on…

  18. Causal factors of acute gastroenteritis in infants and young children.

    PubMed

    Zvizdić, Sukrija; Kapić, Elvedina; Hamzić, Sadeta

    2005-02-01

    Respiratory, gastrointestinal and skin diseases represent the most common diseases in infants and young children. Causal factors of these diseases are important infectious agents and causes of pathological conditions in children, but they are also very important for their parents, as well as for people in their close environment. Greater incidence of infections in infants and young children can be explained in different ways. A cause can be insufficient maturity of their immune system, but also their exposure to infections within collective accommodations (cribs, nurseries, pre-school institutions), where they are, at the same time, exposed to a number of unknown agents. Today, a great emphasis is devoted to the ways and kinds of children's nutrition. The problem of relation between infected young organism and infectious agent itself, is also reflected in a long resistance and excretion of microorganisms in their exterior environment. It is well-known that microorganisms resist and excrete much longer in younger organisms, compared to adults, where their resistance and excretion is much shorter or very rare. Actually, adults have already formed protective immunity against particular infectious agents. It doesn't prevent infections in adults, colonization of pathogens, nor eventual development of disease. Established immunity can shorten the time necessary for excretion of microorganisms in their exterior environment and, if disease gets developed, it is of shorter duration and slower progress. PMID:15771601

  19. Assessing Dynamic Spectral Causality by Lagged Adaptive Directed Transfer Function and Instantaneous Effect Factor

    PubMed Central

    Xu, Haojie; Lu, Yunfeng; Zhu, Shanan

    2014-01-01

    It is of significance to assess the dynamic spectral causality among physiological signals. Several practical estimators adapted from spectral Granger causality have been exploited to track dynamic causality based on the framework of time-varying multivariate autoregressive (tvMVAR) models. The non-zero covariance of the model’s residuals has been used to describe the instantaneous effect phenomenon in some causality estimators. However, for the situations with Gaussian residuals in some autoregressive models, it is challenging to distinguish the directed instantaneous causality if the sufficient prior information about the “causal ordering” is missing. Here, we propose a new algorithm to assess the time-varying causal ordering of tvMVAR model under the assumption that the signals follow the same acyclic causal ordering for all time lags and to estimate the instantaneous effect factor (IEF) value in order to track the dynamic directed instantaneous connectivity. The time-lagged adaptive directed transfer function (ADTF) is also estimated to assess the lagged causality after removing the instantaneous effect. In the present study, we firstly investigated the performance of the causal-ordering estimation algorithm and the accuracy of IEF value. Then, we presented the results of IEF and time-lagged ADTF method by comparing with the conventional ADTF method through simulations of various propagation models. Statistical analysis results suggest that the new algorithm could accurately estimate the causal ordering and give a good estimation of the IEF values in the Gaussian residual conditions. Meanwhile, the time-lagged ADTF approach is also more accurate in estimating the time-lagged dynamic interactions in a complex nervous system after extracting the instantaneous effect. In addition to the simulation studies, we applied the proposed method to estimate the dynamic spectral causality on real visual evoked potential (VEP) data in a human subject. Its usefulness in

  20. The Human Factors of an Early Space Accident: Flight 3-65 of the X-15

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Barshi, Immanuel; Statler, Irving C.; Orr, Jeb S.

    2015-01-01

    The X-15 was a critical research vehicle in the early days of space flight. On November 15, 1967, the X-15-3 suffered an in-flight breakup. This 191st flight of the X-15 and the 65th flight of this third configuration was the only fatal accident of the X-15 program. This paper presents an analysis, from a human factors perspective, of the events that led up to the accident. The analysis is based on the information contained in the report of the Air Force-NASA Accident Investigation Board (AIB) dated January, 1968. The AIBs analysis addressed, primarily, the events that occurred subsequent to the pilots taking direct control of the reaction control system. The analysis described here suggests that all of the events that caused the accident occurred well before the moment when the pilot switched to direct control. Consequently, the analyses and conclusions regarding the causal factors of, and the contributing factors to, the loss of Flight 3-65 presented here differ from those of the AIB based on the same evidence. Although the accident occurred in 1967, the results of the presented analysis are still relevant today. We present our analysis and discuss its implications for the safety of space operations.

  1. Factors contributing to young moped rider accidents in Denmark.

    PubMed

    Møller, Mette; Haustein, Sonja

    2016-02-01

    Young road users still constitute a high-risk group with regard to road traffic accidents. The crash rate of a moped is four times greater than that of a motorcycle, and the likelihood of being injured in a road traffic accident is 10-20 times higher among moped riders compared to car drivers. Nevertheless, research on the behaviour and accident involvement of young moped riders remains sparse. Based on analysis of 128 accident protocols, the purpose of this study was to increase knowledge about moped accidents. The study was performed in Denmark involving riders aged 16 or 17. A distinction was made between accident factors related to (1) the road and its surroundings, (2) the vehicle, and (3) the reported behaviour and condition of the road user. Thirteen accident factors were identified with the majority concerning the reported behaviour and condition of the road user. The average number of accident factors assigned per accident was 2.7. Riding speed was assigned in 45% of the accidents which made it the most frequently assigned factor on the part of the moped rider followed by attention errors (42%), a tuned up moped (29%) and position on the road (14%). For the other parties involved, attention error (52%) was the most frequently assigned accident factor. The majority (78%) of the accidents involved road rule breaching on the part of the moped rider. The results indicate that preventive measures should aim to eliminate violations and increase anticipatory skills among moped riders and awareness of mopeds among other road users. Due to their young age the effect of such measures could be enhanced by infrastructural measures facilitating safe interaction between mopeds and other road users. PMID:26619285

  2. Risk and resilience factors of persons exposed to accidents

    PubMed Central

    HERTA, DANA – CRISTINA; BRÎNDAS, PAULA; TRIFU, RALUCA; COZMAN, DOINA

    2016-01-01

    Background and aims Resilience encompasses factors promoting effective functioning in the context of adversity. Data regarding resilience in the wake of accidental trauma is still scarce. The aim of the current study is to comparatively assess adaptive, life – promoting factors in persons exposed to motor vehicle accidents (MVA) vs. persons exposed to other types of accidents, and to identify psychological factors of resilience and vulnerability in this context of trauma exposure. Methods We assessed 93 participants exposed to accidents out of 305 eligible patients from the Clinical Rehabilitation Hospital and Cluj County Emergency Hospital. The study used Reasons for Living Inventory (RFL) and Life Events Checklist. Scores were comparatively assessed for RFL items, RFL scale and subscales in participants exposed to motor vehicle accidents (MVA) vs. participants exposed to other life – threatening accidents. Results Participants exposed to MVA and those exposed to other accidents had significantly different scores in 7 RFL items. Scores were high in 4 out of 6 RFL subscales for both samples and in most items comprising these subscales, while in the other 2 subscales and in some items comprising them scores were low. Conclusions Low fear of death, physical suffering and social disapproval emerge as risk factors in persons exposed to life – threatening accidents. Love of life, courage in life and hope for the future are important resilience factors after exposure to various types of life – threatening accidents. Survival and active coping beliefs promote resilience especially after motor vehicle accidents. Coping with uncertainty are more likely to foster resilience after other types of life – threatening accidents. Attachment of the accident victim to family promotes resilience mostly after MVA, while perceived attachment of family members to the victim promotes resilience after other types of accidents. PMID:27152078

  3. Zagreb and Tenerife: Airline Accidents Involving Linguistic Factors

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cookson, Simon

    2009-01-01

    The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) is currently implementing a program to improve the language proficiency of pilots and air traffic controllers worldwide. In justifying the program, ICAO has cited a number of airline accidents that were at least partly caused by language factors. Two accidents cited by ICAO are analysed in this…

  4. Human Factors in Accidents Involving Remotely Piloted Aircraft

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Merlin, Peter William

    2013-01-01

    This presentation examines human factors that contribute to RPA mishaps and provides analysis of lessons learned. RPA accident data from U.S. military and government agencies were reviewed and analyzed to identify human factors issues. Common contributors to RPA mishaps fell into several major categories: cognitive factors (pilot workload), physiological factors (fatigue and stress), environmental factors (situational awareness), staffing factors (training and crew coordination), and design factors (human machine interface).

  5. Human factors review for Severe Accident Sequence Analysis (SASA)

    SciTech Connect

    Krois, P.A.; Haas, P.M.; Manning, J.J.; Bovell, C.R.

    1984-01-01

    The paper will discuss work being conducted during this human factors review including: (1) support of the Severe Accident Sequence Analysis (SASA) Program based on an assessment of operator actions, and (2) development of a descriptive model of operator severe accident management. Research by SASA analysts on the Browns Ferry Unit One (BF1) anticipated transient without scram (ATWS) was supported through a concurrent assessment of operator performance to demonstrate contributions to SASA analyses from human factors data and methods. A descriptive model was developed called the Function Oriented Accident Management (FOAM) model, which serves as a structure for bridging human factors, operations, and engineering expertise and which is useful for identifying needs/deficiencies in the area of accident management. The assessment of human factors issues related to ATWS required extensive coordination with SASA analysts. The analysis was consolidated primarily to six operator actions identified in the Emergency Procedure Guidelines (EPGs) as being the most critical to the accident sequence. These actions were assessed through simulator exercises, qualitative reviews, and quantitative human reliability analyses. The FOAM descriptive model assumes as a starting point that multiple operator/system failures exceed the scope of procedures and necessitates a knowledge-based emergency response by the operators. The FOAM model provides a functionally-oriented structure for assembling human factors, operations, and engineering data and expertise into operator guidance for unconventional emergency responses to mitigate severe accident progression and avoid/minimize core degradation. Operators must also respond to potential radiological release beyond plant protective barriers. Research needs in accident management and potential uses of the FOAM model are described. 11 references, 1 figure.

  6. Children's and Adults' Memory for Television Stories: The Role of Causal Factors, Story-Grammar Categories, and Hierarchical Level.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    van den Broek, Paul; And Others

    1996-01-01

    Asked children and adults to recall events from "Sesame Street." Found that subjects' memory was influenced by causal factors (number of causal relations to other events, place in the story's causal chain) and this influence increased with age; children recalled actions, whereas adults recalled protagonists' goals; and children's recall increased…

  7. Seeing Perfectly Fitting Factor Models That Are Causally Misspecified: Understanding That Close-Fitting Models Can Be Worse

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hayduk, Leslie

    2014-01-01

    Researchers using factor analysis tend to dismiss the significant ill fit of factor models by presuming that if their factor model is close-to-fitting, it is probably close to being properly causally specified. Close fit may indeed result from a model being close to properly causally specified, but close-fitting factor models can also be seriously…

  8. Accidents to preschool children: comparing family and neighbourhood risk factors.

    PubMed

    Reading, R; Langford, I H; Haynes, R; Lovett, A

    1999-02-01

    Accidental injury in young children is more common among poorer families and in deprived areas but little is known about how these factors interact. This paper describes a study to measure the contribution of individual family factors and area characteristics in determining risk of accidental injury among preschool children. We conducted a population based study of preschool accident and emergency attendances over two years in and around the city of Norwich, UK. Information on individual families was extracted from the district child health information system while "social areas" were constructed from adjacent census enumeration districts with homogeneous social and demographic characteristics. Statistical analysis was by multilevel modelling. Accidental injury rates were much higher in deprived urban neighbourhoods than in affluent areas but the multilevel analysis showed that, for all accidents, much of the variation in rates was accounted for by factors at the individual level i.e. male sex, young maternal age, number of elder siblings and distance from hospital, with a smaller, but independent, influence of living in a deprived neighbourhood. The model for more severe injuries was similar except single parenthood was now significant at the level of individuals and the effect of area deprivation was stronger. We conclude that preschool accidental injuries are influenced by factors operating at both the level of individual families and between areas. This evidence suggests that both social policy changes to improve child care among unsupported young families and targeting accident prevention measures at a local level towards deprived neighbourhoods would reduce accidents. PMID:10077280

  9. Structure as a causal factor in nurses' strikes.

    PubMed

    Hibberd, J M

    1988-01-01

    Nurses employed in Alberta's hospitals have earned a reputation of militancy as a result of four province-wide strikes in the 11-year period 1977-1988. Based on a case study of the first three strikes, the principal causes of the labour disputes are discussed: namely, union ideology, economic factors and inherent constraints in the structure of bargaining in the public sector. Interorganizational relationships of the three main players, the United Nurses of Alberta, the Alberta Hospital Association and the provincial government have been contributing factors in all three strikes. Although issues in the disputes were primarily economic, demands associated with the needs of working women, and demands that threatened the traditional prerogatives of management were at the heart of every impasse. PMID:10290776

  10. Causal Factors Influencing Adversity Quotient of Twelfth Grade and Third-Year Vocational Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pangma, Rachapoom; Tayraukham, Sombat; Nuangchalerm, Prasart

    2009-01-01

    Problem statement: The aim of this research was to study the causal factors influencing students' adversity between twelfth grade and third-year vocational students in Sisaket province, Thailand. Six hundred and seventy two of twelfth grade and 376 third-year vocational students were selected by multi-stage random sampling techniques. Approach:…

  11. Age- and sex-specific causal effects of adiposity on cardiovascular risk factors.

    PubMed

    Fall, Tove; Hägg, Sara; Ploner, Alexander; Mägi, Reedik; Fischer, Krista; Draisma, Harmen H M; Sarin, Antti-Pekka; Benyamin, Beben; Ladenvall, Claes; Åkerlund, Mikael; Kals, Mart; Esko, Tõnu; Nelson, Christopher P; Kaakinen, Marika; Huikari, Ville; Mangino, Massimo; Meirhaeghe, Aline; Kristiansson, Kati; Nuotio, Marja-Liisa; Kobl, Michael; Grallert, Harald; Dehghan, Abbas; Kuningas, Maris; de Vries, Paul S; de Bruijn, Renée F A G; Willems, Sara M; Heikkilä, Kauko; Silventoinen, Karri; Pietiläinen, Kirsi H; Legry, Vanessa; Giedraitis, Vilmantas; Goumidi, Louisa; Syvänen, Ann-Christine; Strauch, Konstantin; Koenig, Wolfgang; Lichtner, Peter; Herder, Christian; Palotie, Aarno; Menni, Cristina; Uitterlinden, André G; Kuulasmaa, Kari; Havulinna, Aki S; Moreno, Luis A; Gonzalez-Gross, Marcela; Evans, Alun; Tregouet, David-Alexandre; Yarnell, John W G; Virtamo, Jarmo; Ferrières, Jean; Veronesi, Giovanni; Perola, Markus; Arveiler, Dominique; Brambilla, Paolo; Lind, Lars; Kaprio, Jaakko; Hofman, Albert; Stricker, Bruno H; van Duijn, Cornelia M; Ikram, M Arfan; Franco, Oscar H; Cottel, Dominique; Dallongeville, Jean; Hall, Alistair S; Jula, Antti; Tobin, Martin D; Penninx, Brenda W; Peters, Annette; Gieger, Christian; Samani, Nilesh J; Montgomery, Grant W; Whitfield, John B; Martin, Nicholas G; Groop, Leif; Spector, Tim D; Magnusson, Patrik K; Amouyel, Philippe; Boomsma, Dorret I; Nilsson, Peter M; Järvelin, Marjo-Riitta; Lyssenko, Valeriya; Metspalu, Andres; Strachan, David P; Salomaa, Veikko; Ripatti, Samuli; Pedersen, Nancy L; Prokopenko, Inga; McCarthy, Mark I; Ingelsson, Erik

    2015-05-01

    Observational studies have reported different effects of adiposity on cardiovascular risk factors across age and sex. Since cardiovascular risk factors are enriched in obese individuals, it has not been easy to dissect the effects of adiposity from those of other risk factors. We used a Mendelian randomization approach, applying a set of 32 genetic markers to estimate the causal effect of adiposity on blood pressure, glycemic indices, circulating lipid levels, and markers of inflammation and liver disease in up to 67,553 individuals. All analyses were stratified by age (cutoff 55 years of age) and sex. The genetic score was associated with BMI in both nonstratified analysis (P = 2.8 × 10(-107)) and stratified analyses (all P < 3.3 × 10(-30)). We found evidence of a causal effect of adiposity on blood pressure, fasting levels of insulin, C-reactive protein, interleukin-6, HDL cholesterol, and triglycerides in a nonstratified analysis and in the <55-year stratum. Further, we found evidence of a smaller causal effect on total cholesterol (P for difference = 0.015) in the ≥55-year stratum than in the <55-year stratum, a finding that could be explained by biology, survival bias, or differential medication. In conclusion, this study extends previous knowledge of the effects of adiposity by providing sex- and age-specific causal estimates on cardiovascular risk factors. PMID:25712996

  12. Gauge Invariance and Gauge-Factor Group in Causal Yang-Mills Theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Emmenegger, N.

    2001-11-01

    In the present work the gauge invariance of causal Yang-Mills theory will be proven with the aid of the gauge-factor group. For that purpose it must be shown, that the operator valued distributions T_n and D_n(ret) occurring in the causal S-matrix construction can be written, after applying the gauge variation d_Q, as a divergence. Since merely local terms lead to gauge destroying expressions, one has to focus on them exclusively. In the first part of the work the local gauge-factor group will be defined in the style of the concept of gauge cohomology theory. It will be shown, that every element out of the so defined factor group under the transformation d_Q leads to a divergence of the entire operator valued distribution d_Q(T_n). In the second part all local terms arising in causal Yang-Mills theory are systematically investigated. Without further restrictions there can be proven, that every local operator valued distribution is an element of the gauge factor group or equal to zero. This concludes the demonstration of gauge invariance of causal Yang-Mills theory.

  13. Age- and Sex-Specific Causal Effects of Adiposity on Cardiovascular Risk Factors

    PubMed Central

    Fall, Tove; Hägg, Sara; Ploner, Alexander; Mägi, Reedik; Fischer, Krista; Draisma, Harmen H.M.; Sarin, Antti-Pekka; Benyamin, Beben; Ladenvall, Claes; Åkerlund, Mikael; Kals, Mart; Esko, Tõnu; Nelson, Christopher P.; Kaakinen, Marika; Huikari, Ville; Mangino, Massimo; Meirhaeghe, Aline; Kristiansson, Kati; Nuotio, Marja-Liisa; Kobl, Michael; Grallert, Harald; Dehghan, Abbas; Kuningas, Maris; de Vries, Paul S.; de Bruijn, Renée F.A.G.; Willems, Sara M.; Heikkilä, Kauko; Silventoinen, Karri; Pietiläinen, Kirsi H.; Legry, Vanessa; Giedraitis, Vilmantas; Goumidi, Louisa; Syvänen, Ann-Christine; Strauch, Konstantin; Koenig, Wolfgang; Lichtner, Peter; Herder, Christian; Palotie, Aarno; Menni, Cristina; Uitterlinden, André G.; Kuulasmaa, Kari; Havulinna, Aki S.; Moreno, Luis A.; Gonzalez-Gross, Marcela; Evans, Alun; Tregouet, David-Alexandre; Yarnell, John W.G.; Virtamo, Jarmo; Ferrières, Jean; Veronesi, Giovanni; Perola, Markus; Arveiler, Dominique; Brambilla, Paolo; Lind, Lars; Kaprio, Jaakko; Hofman, Albert; Stricker, Bruno H.; van Duijn, Cornelia M.; Ikram, M. Arfan; Franco, Oscar H.; Cottel, Dominique; Dallongeville, Jean; Hall, Alistair S.; Jula, Antti; Tobin, Martin D.; Penninx, Brenda W.; Peters, Annette; Gieger, Christian; Samani, Nilesh J.; Montgomery, Grant W.; Whitfield, John B.; Martin, Nicholas G.; Groop, Leif; Spector, Tim D.; Magnusson, Patrik K.; Amouyel, Philippe; Boomsma, Dorret I.; Nilsson, Peter M.; Järvelin, Marjo-Riitta; Lyssenko, Valeriya; Metspalu, Andres; Strachan, David P.; Salomaa, Veikko; Ripatti, Samuli; Pedersen, Nancy L.; Prokopenko, Inga; McCarthy, Mark I.

    2015-01-01

    Observational studies have reported different effects of adiposity on cardiovascular risk factors across age and sex. Since cardiovascular risk factors are enriched in obese individuals, it has not been easy to dissect the effects of adiposity from those of other risk factors. We used a Mendelian randomization approach, applying a set of 32 genetic markers to estimate the causal effect of adiposity on blood pressure, glycemic indices, circulating lipid levels, and markers of inflammation and liver disease in up to 67,553 individuals. All analyses were stratified by age (cutoff 55 years of age) and sex. The genetic score was associated with BMI in both nonstratified analysis (P = 2.8 × 10−107) and stratified analyses (all P < 3.3 × 10−30). We found evidence of a causal effect of adiposity on blood pressure, fasting levels of insulin, C-reactive protein, interleukin-6, HDL cholesterol, and triglycerides in a nonstratified analysis and in the <55-year stratum. Further, we found evidence of a smaller causal effect on total cholesterol (P for difference = 0.015) in the ≥55-year stratum than in the <55-year stratum, a finding that could be explained by biology, survival bias, or differential medication. In conclusion, this study extends previous knowledge of the effects of adiposity by providing sex- and age-specific causal estimates on cardiovascular risk factors. PMID:25712996

  14. Enzootic pneumonia in feeder pigs: Observations on causal factors

    PubMed Central

    DiFranco, Enrico; Marois, Paul; Descôteaux, Jean-Paul; Lacroix, Martial; Flipot, Paul

    1989-01-01

    A number of factors were studied in eight feeder pig herds, affected with severe or mild enzootic pneumonia, in order to identify those associated with this disease. Piggeries with poor facilities and management and where procurement of piglets was from sales barns were more severely affected with enzootic pneumonia than were those with good facilities and where pigs originated directly from breeding units. Serological tests and virus isolation revealed that all herds had been exposed to Mycoplasma hyopneumoniae and to many viruses; transmissible gastroenteritis virus infection was the only viral infection that was apparently associated with the severity of enzootic pneumonia and the performance observed in the herds. PMID:17423261

  15. Risk management: Role of societal factors in major industrial accidents

    SciTech Connect

    Hovden, J.; Rausand, M.; Sergeev, G.

    1995-12-31

    The paper discusses factors influencing the occurrence of major accidents in complex technological systems. Societal factors are identified as most significant in this context. Important types of societal factors are pin-pointed and discussed. The safety situation in the former Soviet Union and in today`s Russian is described. The calamities at Chernobyl, Three Mile Island, and partly also Bhopal are discussed, and the role of societal factors identified. A main point of view is that it is not surprising that these catastrophes happened in the then existing conditions. What is surprising is that they did not happen earlier!

  16. Aircraft Loss-of-Control Accident Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Belcastro, Christine M.; Foster, John V.

    2010-01-01

    Loss of control remains one of the largest contributors to fatal aircraft accidents worldwide. Aircraft loss-of-control accidents are complex in that they can result from numerous causal and contributing factors acting alone or (more often) in combination. Hence, there is no single intervention strategy to prevent these accidents. To gain a better understanding into aircraft loss-of-control events and possible intervention strategies, this paper presents a detailed analysis of loss-of-control accident data (predominantly from Part 121), including worst case combinations of causal and contributing factors and their sequencing. Future potential risks are also considered.

  17. The influence of linguistic and cognitive factors on the time course of verb-based implicit causality.

    PubMed

    Koornneef, Arnout; Dotlačil, Jakub; van den Broek, Paul; Sanders, Ted

    2016-03-01

    In three eye-tracking experiments the influence of the Dutch causal connective "want" (because) and the working memory capacity of readers on the usage of verb-based implicit causality was examined. Experiments 1 and 2 showed that although a causal connective is not required to activate implicit causality information during reading, effects of implicit causality surfaced more rapidly and were more pronounced when a connective was present in the discourse than when it was absent. In addition, Experiment 3 revealed that-in contrast to previous claims-the activation of implicit causality is not a resource-consuming mental operation. Moreover, readers with higher and lower working memory capacities behaved differently in a dual-task situation. Higher span readers were more likely to use implicit causality when they had all their working memory resources at their disposal. Lower span readers showed the opposite pattern as they were more likely to use the implicit causality cue in the case of an additional working memory load. The results emphasize that both linguistic and cognitive factors mediate the impact of implicit causality on text comprehension. The implications of these results are discussed in terms of the ongoing controversies in the literature-that is, the focusing-integration debate and the debates on the source of implicit causality. PMID:26031765

  18. Occupational accidents in the Netherlands: incidence, mental harm, and their relationship with psychosocial factors at work.

    PubMed

    van der Klauw, Marloes; Hengel, Karen Oude; Roozeboom, Maartje Bakhuys; Koppes, Lando L; Venema, Anita

    2016-01-01

    This study investigated the incidence of mental harm due to occupational accidents and the relation between psychosocial factors at work and the occurrence of occupational accidents in the Netherlands for the construction industry and health and welfare sector. Analyses revealed that occupational accidents in the construction industry more often involved physical harm, whereas accidents in the health and welfare sector relatively more often resulted in mental harm, in comparison to other sectors. Results showed that psychosocial factors were associated with occupational accidents in both sectors. For the construction industry, high time pressure and exposure to violence and harassment by colleagues or supervisors were associated with occupational accidents. For the health and welfare sector, low autonomy and exposure to violence and harassment by colleagues or supervisors or by people outside the organization were associated with occupational accidents. The present paper stresses the importance of also taking psychological consequences and psychosocial factors at work into account in assessing the occurrence of occupational accidents. PMID:25531558

  19. Organizational factors related to occupational accidents in construction.

    PubMed

    Filho, J M Jackson; Fonseca, E D; Lima, F P A; Duarte, F J C M

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to understand the influence of organizational factors on occupational accident causation. A field study was undertaken and focused on the phase of concreting the floors of a residential block in a building project in Brazil. The methodological approach was based on the analysis of carpenters' work practices and of the workers' accounts of minor falls. Observations were noted on work practices over this stage. Furthermore, interviews were conducted with the workers hired by the subcontractors and with professionals working for the main contractor. The results show that falls were related to the introduction of new building technology and its use by the workforce. The production planning and organization of activities by the subcontracted firms also led to temporary demands that were additional determining factors for falls on site. The work analysis reveals the need to consider organizational factors in prevention practices. PMID:22317355

  20. Mapping historical information for better understanding the causality factors of past disasters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boudou, Martin; Lang, Michel; Vinet, Freddy; Coeur, Denis

    2015-04-01

    The Flood Directive of 2007 promotes the use of historical information in order to mitigate the impact of future extreme events. According to this text, the study of past events offers new insights for better understanding the causality factors of a disaster, from hydrometeorological keys to socio-political repercussions of the flood. In this presentation we decided to focus on the study of factors leading to the exceptionality of a hydrological flood event. This aspect is regularly pointed out by the feedbacks carried out after a catastrophic event and remains a subject of debate for risk managers. The role of antecedent meteorological conditions is especially underestimated by local authorities. These factors can however be considered as a key issue to appreciate the exceptional character of a hydrological disaster. For example the 2013 June floods in France that affected the region of Pyrenees revealed the significant contribution of snow melting to the discharges recorded. In an article of 2014, Schröter et al. showed that the soil moisture can be considered as a key driver of the generalised flood hazard intensity that affected Germany over the same month of June 2013. With regard to these assessments, some considerations emerge. Does a diachronic appraisal of past disasters point out the main issues responsible for an exceptional flood hazard level? Is there common causality issues involved into these extreme hydrological events? In order to answer these questions this presentation proposes a comparative analysis of nine major floods that impacted the French territory during the XXth century (from 1910 to 2010). The set is composed by different flood typologies (from torrential events to floods resulting from groundwater level rising) so as to get a complete view of flood risk in France. The methodology proposed relies on a cartographic approach to highlight the causality factors of these past hydrological disasters. For instance, mapping the rainfall data

  1. The multidimensional causal factors of 'wet litter' in chicken-meat production.

    PubMed

    Dunlop, Mark W; Moss, Amy F; Groves, Peter J; Wilkinson, Stuart J; Stuetz, Richard M; Selle, Peter H

    2016-08-15

    The problem of 'wet litter', which occurs primarily in grow-out sheds for meat chickens (broilers), has been recognised for nearly a century. Nevertheless, it is an increasingly important problem in contemporary chicken-meat production as wet litter and associated conditions, especially footpad dermatitis, have developed into tangible welfare issues. This is only compounded by the market demand for chicken paws and compromised bird performance. This review considers the multidimensional causal factors of wet litter. While many causal factors can be listed it is evident that the critical ones could be described as micro-environmental factors and chief amongst them is proper management of drinking systems and adequate shed ventilation. Thus, this review focuses on these environmental factors and pays less attention to issues stemming from health and nutrition. Clearly, there are times when related avian health issues of coccidiosis and necrotic enteritis cannot be overlooked and the development of efficacious vaccines for the latter disease would be advantageous. Presently, the inclusion of phytate-degrading enzymes in meat chicken diets is routine and, therefore, the implication that exogenous phytases may contribute to wet litter is given consideration. Opinion is somewhat divided as how best to counter the problem of wet litter as some see education and extension as being more beneficial than furthering research efforts. However, it may prove instructive to assess the practice of whole grain feeding in relation to litter quality and the incidence of footpad dermatitis. Additional research could investigate the relationships between dietary concentrations of key minerals and the application of exogenous enzymes with litter quality. PMID:27110988

  2. Causal and mediating factors for anxiety, depression and well-being.

    PubMed

    Kinderman, Peter; Tai, Sara; Pontin, Eleanor; Schwannauer, Matthias; Jarman, Ian; Lisboa, Paulo

    2015-06-01

    Background The relationship between well-being and mental ill health is complex; people may experience very low levels of well-being even in the absence of overt mental health problems. Aims This study tested the hypothesis that anxiety, depression and well-being have different causal determinants and psychological mediating mechanisms. Method The influence of causal and mediating factors on anxiety, depression and well-being were investigated in a cross-sectional online questionnaire survey hosted on a UK national broadcasting website. Results Multivariate conditional independence analysis of data from 27 397 participants revealed different association pathways for the two constructs. Anxiety and depression were associated with negative life events mediated by rumination; low levels of subjective well-being were associated with material deprivation and social isolation, mediated by adaptive coping style. Conclusions Our findings support the 'two continua' model of the relationship between psychological well-being and mental health problems, with implications for both treatment and prevention. PMID:25858180

  3. Determination of influence factors and accident rates for the Armored Tractor/Safe Secure Trailer

    SciTech Connect

    Phillips, J.S.; Clauss, D.B.; Blower, D.F.

    1994-04-01

    Operating environments, such as road type, road location, and time of day, play an important role in the observed accident rates of heavy trucks used in general commerce. These same factors influence the accident rate of the Armored Tractor/Safe Secure Trailer (AT/SST) used by the Department of Energy to transport hazardous cargos within the continental United States. This report discusses the development of accident rate influence factors. These factors, based on heavy trucks used in general commerce, are used to modify the observed overall AT/SST accident rate to account for the different operating environments.

  4. Causal Factors of Weld Porosity in Gas Tungsten Arc Welding of Powder Metallurgy Produced Titanium Alloys

    SciTech Connect

    Muth, Thomas R; Yamamoto, Yukinori; Frederick, David Alan; Contescu, Cristian I; Chen, Wei; Lim, Yong Chae; Peter, William H; Feng, Zhili

    2013-01-01

    ORNL undertook an investigation using gas tungsten arc (GTA) welding on consolidated powder metallurgy (PM) titanium (Ti) plate, to identify the causal factors behind observed porosity in fusion welding. Tramp element compounds of sodium and magnesium, residual from the metallothermic reduction of titanium chloride used to produce the titanium, were remnant in the starting powder and were identified as gas forming species. PM-titanium made from revert scrap where sodium and magnesium were absent, showed fusion weld porosity, although to a lesser degree. We show that porosity was attributable to hydrogen from adsorbed water on the surface of the powders prior to consolidation. The removal / minimization of both adsorbed water on the surface of titanium powder and the residues from the reduction process prior to consolidation of titanium powders, are critical to achieve equivalent fusion welding success similar to that seen in wrought titanium produced via the Kroll process.

  5. Turbulent urinary flow in the urethra could be a causal factor for benign prostatic hyperplasia.

    PubMed

    Martinez-Borges, Anibal R

    2006-01-01

    Benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH) is the most common form of prostate disease in middle-aged and elderly men, and leads to severe impairment later in life. Despite its significant impact on public health, the underlying cause of BPH is yet to be determined. This hypothesis proposes a new causal factor for BPH. Applying concepts of dynamics of fluids to the process of urination it could be stated that a turbulent urinary flow through the passage of the urethra. The turbulent urinary flow in the urethra applies pressure and stretch forces to the surrounding tissue. This stimulus repeated over time and coupled with age-related changes of the urethral tissue could contribute to the development of BPH. In support of this hypothesis, several mechanotransduction studies have shown that vibration and pressure forces applied to different cell tissues can provoke cellular and molecular changes. Another supportive data is the presence of the hyperplasic reaction surrounding the urethra specifically located in the transition zone, the only zone where BPH develops. It is crucial to identify causal factors to understanding the disease and to determine effective primary prevention strategies. Future studies of the dynamics of fluids in the urethra are warranted. The finding of significant forces transmitted to the periurethral tissue from a turbulent urinary flow could give us the clue to the underlying cause of BPH. If this hypothesis proves to be valid there are several primary prevention measures that could be implemented to impede the development of BPH. Educational intervention measures in younger populations to avoid frequent urinary retention and active urination (process of forcing the urine through the urethra at a high velocity) could be considered. Studies of the impact of turbulence in the standing vs. sitting position during urination in men should also be considered. PMID:16764996

  6. Accident-precipitating factors for crashes in turbine-powered general aviation aircraft.

    PubMed

    Boyd, Douglas D; Stolzer, Alan

    2016-01-01

    General aviation (14CFR Part 91) accounts for 83% of civil aviation fatalities. While much research has focused on accident causes/pilot demographics in this aviation sector, studies to identify factors leading up to the crash (accident-precipitating factors) are few. Such information could inform on pre-emptive remedial action. With this in mind and considering the paucity of research on turbine-powered aircraft accidents the study objectives were to identify accident-precipitating factors and determine if the accident rate has changed over time for such aircraft operating under 14CFR Part 91. The NTSB Access database was queried for accidents in airplanes (<12,501lb) powered by 1-2 turbine engines and occurring between 1989 and 2013. We developed and utilized an accident-precipitating factor taxonomy. Statistical analyses employed logistic regression, contingency tables and a generalized linear model with Poisson distribution. The "Checklist/Flight Manual Not Followed" was the most frequent accident-precipitating factor category and carried an excess risk (OR 2.34) for an accident with a fatal and/or serious occupant injury. This elevated risk reflected an over-representation of accidents with fatal and/or serious injury outcomes (p<0.001) in the "non-adherence to V Speeds" sub-category. For accidents grouped in the "Inadequate Pre-Flight Planning/Inspection/Procedure" the "inadequate weather planning" sub-category accounted (p=0.036) for the elevated risk (OR 2.22) of an accident involving fatal and/or serious injuries. The "Violation FARs/AIM Deviation" category was also associated with a greater risk for fatal and/or serious injury (OR 2.59) with "Descent below the MDA/failure to execute the missed approach" representing the largest sub-category. Accidents in multi-engine aircraft are more frequent than their single engine counterparts and the decline (50%) in the turbine aircraft accident rate over the study period was likely due, in part, to a 6-fold

  7. Research misconduct and data fraud in clinical trials: prevalence and causal factors.

    PubMed

    George, Stephen L

    2016-02-01

    The disclosure of cases of research misconduct in clinical trials, conventionally defined as fabrication, falsification or plagiarism, has been a disturbingly common phenomenon in recent years. Such cases can potentially harm patients enrolled on the trials in question or patients treated based on the results of those trials and can seriously undermine the scientific and public trust in the validity of clinical trial results. Here, I review what is known about the prevalence of research misconduct in general and the contributing or causal factors leading to the misconduct. The evidence on prevalence is unreliable and fraught with definitional problems and with study design issues. Nevertheless, the evidence taken as a whole seems to suggest that cases of the most serious types of misconduct, fabrication and falsification (i.e., data fraud), are relatively rare but that other types of questionable research practices are quite common. There have been many individual, institutional and scientific factors proposed for misconduct but, as is the case with estimates of prevalence, reliable empirical evidence on the strength and relative importance of these factors is lacking. However, it seems clear that the view of misconduct as being simply the result of aberrant or self-delusional personalities likely underestimates the effect of other important factors and inhibits the development of effective prevention strategies. PMID:26289019

  8. The contributions of sleep-related risk factors to diurnal car accidents.

    PubMed

    Lucidi, Fabio; Mallia, Luca; Violani, Cristiano; Giustiniani, Gabriele; Persia, Luca

    2013-03-01

    This study was intended to estimate the presence and number of individual sleep-related risk factors in a sample of diurnal car accidents and to analyze the extent to which these risk factors tended to be more represented in diurnal accidents involving only one vehicle, involving young drivers or occurring on non-urban roads. Two hundred fifty-three drivers involved in diurnal accidents were interviewed immediately after the accidents to assess their sleepiness-related personal conditions and the circumstances prior to the accident (i.e., individual sleep-related risk factors), such as poor sleep, changes in habitual sleeping patterns, prolonged wakefulness, self-reported acute sleepiness and daytime sleepiness, night-shift jobs and insomnia. A total of 12.3% of the drivers were classified as having at least one of the seven risk factors assessed in the study, supporting the general notion that drivers' sleepiness conditions are crucial, even in diurnal driving circumstances in which they are less likely to depend on chrono-biological processes. Furthermore, consistent with the guiding hypotheses, specific sleep-related risk factors were more evident in single (vs. multiple) car accidents, among young drivers and in car accidents occurring on non-urban roads. In summary, sleep-related risk factors seemed to have a negative impact on drivers' safety in circumstances of diurnal driving, especially when the accidents involved young individuals and occurred on non-urban roads. PMID:23246705

  9. Determining the direction of causality between psychological factors and aircraft noise annoyance.

    PubMed

    Kroesen, Maarten; Molin, Eric J E; van Wee, Bert

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, an attempt is made to establish the direction of causality between a range of psychological factors and aircraft noise annoyance. For this purpose, a panel model was estimated within a structural equation modeling approach. Data were gathered from two surveys conducted in April 2006 and April 2008, respectively, among the same residents living within the 45 Level day-evening-night contour of Amsterdam Airport Schiphol, the largest airport in the Netherlands (n=250). A surprising result is that none of the paths from the psychological factors to aircraft noise annoyance were found to be significant. Yet 2 effects were significant the other way around: (1) from 'aircraft noise annoyance' to 'concern about the negative health effects of noise' and (2) from 'aircraft noise annoyance' to 'belief that noise can be prevented.' Hence aircraft noise annoyance measured at time 1 contained information that can effectively explain changes in these 2 variables at time 2, while controlling for their previous values. Secondary results show that (1) aircraft noise annoyance is very stable through time and (2) that changes in aircraft noise annoyance and the identified psychological factors are correlated. PMID:20160387

  10. The Causal Factors Associated with the Loving Care of the Mothers of Children with Multiple Disabilities

    PubMed Central

    Sadati, Ahmad Kalateh; Salehzade, Hamze; Hemmati, Soroor; Darvish, Manijeh; Heydari, Seyed Taghi; Tabrizi, Reza

    2015-01-01

    Background: Families with disabled children need more psycho-social considerations. Motherhood care of the children with multiple disabilities is difficult. Due to its importance, the aim of this study was to investigate the causal factors affecting loving care of mothers of children with multiple disabilities. Methods: The study used a cross-sectional method in which 75 mothers of exceptional children with multiple disabilities (physical and mental) in elementary schools in Shiraz, Iran. The data were collected through questionnaires which, besides demographical factors, evaluated the relationship between mothers’ loving care of children with multiple disabilities and four other variables including purpose in life, life satisfaction, religious attitude, and sense of coherence. Mann-Whitney U was used for comparison between mothers’ loving care and other variables. Results: Results revealed that demographic variables did not have a significant relationship with loving care. In the case of social variables, there was a significant relationship between mothers’ loving care and purpose in life (P<0.001), religious attitude (P<0.001), and life satisfaction (P=0.01). Conclusion: Motherhood care of disabled children is a unique phenomenon which is due to attachment of mother-child situation. Nevertheless, these mothers are vulnerable and marginalized people who need more attention and social supports provided by related governmental institutions and also NGOs actors. PMID:26448958

  11. Non-syndromic cleft lip and palate: could stress be a causal factor?

    PubMed

    Wallace, Graeme H; Arellano, Jacinta M; Gruner, Tini M

    2011-03-01

    The aetiology of non-syndromic cleft lip and palate has as yet not been clearly defined. Familial relationships, environmental toxins and nutritional status have all been considered without conclusive results, although in some studies a potential link between non-syndromic cleft lip and palate and any one or more of these factors has been proposed. Elevated stress, particularly an extended term of traumatic stress, can lead to oxidative damage at the cellular level via hypothalamus-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis dysregulation, high cortisol and cytokine production. The effect of this hormonal shift is to re-direct the blood supply to the mother's muscles, thereby reducing the supply to the placenta, causing a potential nutritional deficiency which may then result in a genetic alteration in the foetus. Mothers with a child aged two years or younger who had been born with a cleft, who were members of CleftPals, a family support group, volunteered to be participants in this qualitative study. The research first called for a survey to be completed by the mother and this was then followed by an interview conducted by the researcher. The study involved families living in the three eastern States of Australia. The results suggest that physical and/or emotional stress may well be implicated in clefting. While little work has been done in considering stress as a causal factor, the existing literature suggests, as does this study, that elevated stress levels at, or soon after, conception appear to affect foetal development. PMID:20832377

  12. Fatigue failure of metal components as a factor in civil aircraft accidents

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Holshouser, W. L.; Mayner, R. D.

    1972-01-01

    A review of records maintained by the National Transportation Safety Board showed that 16,054 civil aviation accidents occurred in the United States during the 3-year period ending December 31, 1969. Material failure was an important factor in the cause of 942 of these accidents. Fatigue was identified as the mode of the material failures associated with the cause of 155 accidents and in many other accidents the records indicated that fatigue failures might have been involved. There were 27 fatal accidents and 157 fatalities in accidents in which fatigue failures of metal components were definitely identified. Fatigue failures associated with accidents occurred most frequently in landing-gear components, followed in order by powerplant, propeller, and structural components in fixed-wing aircraft and tail-rotor and main-rotor components in rotorcraft. In a study of 230 laboratory reports on failed components associated with the cause of accidents, fatigue was identified as the mode of failure in more than 60 percent of the failed components. The most frequently identified cause of fatigue, as well as most other types of material failures, was improper maintenance (including inadequate inspection). Fabrication defects, design deficiencies, defective material, and abnormal service damage also caused many fatigue failures. Four case histories of major accidents are included in the paper as illustrations of some of the factors invovled in fatigue failures of aircraft components.

  13. [Risk factors for accidents during sports while serving in German armed forces].

    PubMed

    Gundlach, N; Sammito, S; Böckelmann, I

    2012-03-01

    In the German Armed Forces sports activities should bring the benefits of good health and trained fitness which are the hallmarks of sportsmen. In order to achieve this aim it is important to avoid accidents which negate the benefit of sports. Until today there appear to be no studies in existence which demonstrate the risk factors of sports activities undertaken while in military service. Equivalent studies on civilian sport activities are scarcely comparable. To find out risk factors for accidents with any period of recovery we followed sports accidents while on duty in a German barracks with 4,300 soldiers over a two-year period. Additionally we asked about the time needed for recovery from each accident, parameters of lifestyle, the body mass index and the possibility of a nightshift before each accident. We examined a minimum of 410 accidents. We found associations between the accidents studied and particular risk factors, including doing sports more than two times a week, being active in a fitness or sports club, having the accident together with another sportsman and doing a nightshift before the day of the accident. Bad ground conditions contributed to a large number of accidents. A body mass index of 25 and higher had a significantly prolonged time for recovery. To avoid accidents, sport and ground conditions should be adapted to each other. In addition, overweight people are not only compromised for cardiovascular and neurological diseases but also have a higher risk of needing a prolonged time for recovery, thus it is important that overweight should be avoided and not only just be treated. PMID:22422284

  14. Punishment as a factor in preventing alcohol-related accidents.

    PubMed

    Ross, H L

    1993-07-01

    As a humanitarian and economic 'bad', infliction of punishment requires justification in terms of compensating achievements, as well as moral appropriateness. In the context of road accidents, there is evidence that increasing the certainty and swiftness of threatened punishment may deter risky behavior, although increasing the severity of the threat seems ineffective. These effects may be generalizable to other kinds of accidents, but empirical evidence is lacking. A further possibility for the justifiable use of punishment is in its application to negligent service of alcohol. PMID:8358271

  15. Triglyceride-rich lipoproteins as a causal factor for cardiovascular disease

    PubMed Central

    Toth, Peter P

    2016-01-01

    Approximately 25% of US adults are estimated to have hypertriglyceridemia (triglyceride [TG] level ≥150 mg/dL [≥1.7 mmol/L]). Elevated TG levels are associated with increased cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk, and severe hypertriglyceridemia (TG levels ≥500 mg/dL [≥5.6 mmol/L]) is a well-established risk factor for acute pancreatitis. Plasma TG levels correspond to the sum of the TG content in TG-rich lipoproteins (TRLs; ie, very low-density lipoproteins plus chylomicrons) and their remnants. There remains some uncertainty regarding the direct causal role of TRLs in the progression of atherosclerosis and CVD, with cardiovascular outcome studies of TG-lowering agents, to date, having produced inconsistent results. Although low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) remains the primary treatment target to reduce CVD risk, a number of large-scale epidemiological studies have shown that elevated TG levels are independently associated with increased incidence of cardiovascular events, even in patients treated effectively with statins. Genetic studies have further clarified the causal association between TRLs and CVD. Variants in several key genes involved in TRL metabolism are strongly associated with CVD risk, with the strength of a variant’s effect on TG levels correlating with the magnitude of the variant’s effect on CVD. TRLs are thought to contribute to the progression of atherosclerosis and CVD via a number of direct and indirect mechanisms. They directly contribute to intimal cholesterol deposition and are also involved in the activation and enhancement of several proinflammatory, proapoptotic, and procoagulant pathways. Evidence suggests that non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, the sum of the total cholesterol carried by atherogenic lipoproteins (including LDL, TRL, and TRL remnants), provides a better indication of CVD risk than LDL-C, particularly in patients with hypertriglyceridemia. This article aims to provide an overview of the

  16. Crew Communication as a Factor in Aviation Accidents

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Goguen, J. A.; Linde, C.; Murphy, M.

    1984-01-01

    The incidence of air transport accidents caused by problems in crew communication and coordination was investigated. Communication patterns which are most effective in specific situations were determined. Methods to assess the effectiveness of crew communication patterns were developed. The results lead to the development of new methods training crews in effective communication and provide guidelines for the design of aviation procedures and equipment.

  17. Accident investigation reporting deficiencies related to organizational factors in machinery space fires and explosions.

    PubMed

    Schröder-Hinrichs, Jens U; Baldauf, Michael; Ghirxi, Kevin T

    2011-05-01

    Careful accident investigation provides opportunities to review safety arrangements in socio-technical systems. There is consensus that human intervention is involved in the majority of accidents. Ever cautious of the consequences attributed to such a claim vis-à-vis the apportionment of blame, several authors have highlighted the importance of investigating organizational factors in this respect. Specific regulations to limit what were perceived as unsuitable organizational influences in shipping operations were adopted by the International Maritime Organization (IMO). Guidance is provided for the investigation of human and organizational factors involved in maritime accidents. This paper presents a review of 41 accident investigation reports related to machinery space fires and explosions. The objective was to find out if organizational factors are identified during maritime accident investigations. An adapted version of the Human Factor Analysis and Classification System (HFACS) with minor modifications related to machinery space features was used for this review. The results of the review show that organizational factors were not identified by maritime accident investigators to the extent expected had the IMO guidelines been observed. Instead, contributing factors at the lower end of organizational echelons are over-represented. PMID:21376918

  18. Male longevity in Sardinia, a review of historical sources supporting a causal link with dietary factors.

    PubMed

    Pes, G M; Tolu, F; Dore, M P; Sechi, G P; Errigo, A; Canelada, A; Poulain, M

    2015-04-01

    The identification of a hot spot of exceptional longevity, the Longevity Blue Zone (LBZ), in the mountain population of Sardinia has aroused considerable interest toward its traditional food as one of the potential causal factors. This preliminary study on the traditional Sardinian diet has been supported by the literature available, which has been carefully reviewed and compared. Up to a short time ago, the LBZ population depended mostly upon livestock rearing, and consumption of animal-derived foods was relatively higher than in the rest of the island. The nutrition transition (NT) in urbanized and lowland areas began in the mid-1950s, fueled by economic development, whereas in the LBZ it started later owing to prolonged resistance to change by a society organized around a rather efficient pastoral economy. Even nowadays a large proportion of the population in this area still follows the traditional diet based on cereal-derived foods and dairy products. The LBZ cohorts comprising individuals who were of a mature age when NT began may have benefited both from the high-quality, albeit rather monotonous, traditional diet to which they had been exposed most of their life and from the transitional diet, which introduced positive changes such as more variety, increased consumption of fruits and vegetables and moderate meat intake. It could be speculated that these changes may have brought substantial health benefits to this particular aging group, which was in need of nutrient-rich food at this specific time in life, thereby resulting in a decreased mortality risk and, in turn, life-span extension. PMID:25369832

  19. Evaluating the impact of implementation factors on family-based prevention programming: methods for strengthening causal inference.

    PubMed

    Crowley, D Max; Coffman, Donna L; Feinberg, Mark E; Greenberg, Mark T; Spoth, Richard L

    2014-04-01

    Despite growing recognition of the important role implementation plays in successful prevention efforts, relatively little work has sought to demonstrate a causal relationship between implementation factors and participant outcomes. In turn, failure to explore the implementation-to-outcome link limits our understanding of the mechanisms essential to successful programming. This gap is partially due to the inability of current methodological procedures within prevention science to account for the multitude of confounders responsible for variation in implementation factors (i.e., selection bias). The current paper illustrates how propensity and marginal structural models can be used to improve causal inferences involving implementation factors not easily randomized (e.g., participant attendance). We first present analytic steps for simultaneously evaluating the impact of multiple implementation factors on prevention program outcome. Then, we demonstrate this approach for evaluating the impact of enrollment and attendance in a family program, over and above the impact of a school-based program, within PROSPER, a large-scale real-world prevention trial. Findings illustrate the capacity of this approach to successfully account for confounders that influence enrollment and attendance, thereby more accurately representing true causal relations. For instance, after accounting for selection bias, we observed a 5% reduction in the prevalence of 11th grade underage drinking for those who chose to receive a family program and school program compared to those who received only the school program. Further, we detected a 7% reduction in underage drinking for those with high attendance in the family program. PMID:23430578

  20. Study of Psycho-Social Factors Affecting Traffic Accidents Among Young Boys in Tehran

    PubMed Central

    Javadi, Seyyed Mohammad Hossein; Fekr Azad, Hossein; Tahmasebi, Siyamak; Rafiei, Hassan; Rahgozar, Mehdi; Tajlili, Alireza

    2015-01-01

    Background: Unprecedented growth of fatalities due to traffic accidents in the recent years has raised great concerns and efforts of authorities in order to identify and control the causes of these accidents. Objectives: In the present study, the contribution of psychological, social, demographic, environmental and behavioral factors on traffic accidents was studied for young boys in Tehran, emphasizing the importance of psychosocial factors. Patients and Methods: The design of the present study was quantitative (correlational) in which a sample population including 253 boys from Tehran (Iran) with an age range of 18 to 24 who had been referred to insurance institutions, hospitals, correctional facilities as well as prisons, were selected using stratified cluster sampling during the year 2013.The subjects completed the following questionnaires: demographic, general health, lifestyle, Manchester Driving Behavior Questionnaire (MDBQ), young parenting, and NEO-Five Factor Inventory (NEO-FFI). For data analysis, descriptive statistics, correlation coefficient, and inferential statistics including simultaneous regression, stepwise regression, and structural equations modeling were used. Results: The findings indicated that in the psychosocial model of driving behavior (including lapses, mistakes, and intentional violations) and accidents, psychological factors, depression (P < 0.02), personality trait of conscientiousness (P < 0.02), failure schema due to the parenting style of mother (P = 0.001), and perception of police commands (P < 0.002), played an important role in predicting driving behavior. Among social factors, perception of police regulations (P = 0.003), had an important effect on violations and mistakes. Among environmental and behavioral factors, major factors such as driving age (P = 0.001), drug and alcohol use (P = 0.001), having driver’s license (P = 0.013), records of imprisonment or committing a crime (P = 0.012) were also able to predict

  1. Use of CCTV to determine road accident factors in urban areas.

    PubMed

    Conche, Florence; Tight, Miles

    2006-11-01

    This paper sets out to assess whether there is a potential use for images collected through the increasingly ubiquitous use of CCTV cameras in urban areas as a means of increasing understanding of the causes of road traffic accidents. Information on causation and contributory factors is essential as a means of understanding why accidents occurred and how the occurrence of similar events may be prevented in the future. CCTV records of accidents could provide an independent perspective on an accident and have the potential to increase both the quality and quantity of information available to the safety researcher. This study focuses on an area of central Leeds in the UK and shows that an existing CCTV camera system used for urban traffic management reasons has the potential to record around a quarter of the accidents which occur in the area, based on patterns of past occurrence. Most city centres in the UK will have similar camera systems set-up. By the introduction of additional strategically placed cameras and replacement of existing cameras with ones dedicated to accident recording, this figure could be increased substantially. The paper also considers how effective cameras and video records will be as a means of identifying contributory factor information once an accident is recorded. The contributory factor classification used by a recently introduced system in Britain is assessed in terms of how visible each of the factors is likely to be on video and their relative frequency of occurrence. It is concluded that CCTV has a high potential to provide corroborative evidence about many of the most commonly occurring factors, and to throw further light on accident causation. PMID:16824454

  2. Future Integrated Systems Concept for Preventing Aircraft Loss-of-Control Accidents

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Belcastro, Christine M.; Jacobson, Steven r.

    2010-01-01

    Loss of control remains one of the largest contributors to aircraft fatal accidents worldwide. Aircraft loss-of-control accidents are highly complex in that they can result from numerous causal and contributing factors acting alone or (more often) in combination. Hence, there is no single intervention strategy to prevent these accidents. This paper presents future system concepts and research directions for preventing aircraft loss-of-control accidents.

  3. Key factors contributing to accident severity rate in construction industry in Iran: a regression modelling approach.

    PubMed

    Soltanzadeh, Ahmad; Mohammadfam, Iraj; Moghimbeigi, Abbas; Ghiasvand, Reza

    2016-03-01

    Construction industry involves the highest risk of occupational accidents and bodily injuries, which range from mild to very severe. The aim of this cross-sectional study was to identify the factors associated with accident severity rate (ASR) in the largest Iranian construction companies based on data about 500 occupational accidents recorded from 2009 to 2013. We also gathered data on safety and health risk management and training systems. Data were analysed using Pearson's chi-squared coefficient and multiple regression analysis. Median ASR (and the interquartile range) was 107.50 (57.24- 381.25). Fourteen of the 24 studied factors stood out as most affecting construction accident severity (p<0.05). These findings can be applied in the design and implementation of a comprehensive safety and health risk management system to reduce ASR. PMID:27092639

  4. The Impact of School Leadership on School Level Factors: Validation of a Causal Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kruger, Meta L.; Witziers, Bob; Sleegers, Peter

    2007-01-01

    This study aims to contribute to a better understanding of the antecedents and effects of educational leadership, and of the influence of the principal's leadership on intervening and outcome variables. A path analysis was conducted to test and validate a causal model. The results show no direct or indirect effects of educational leadership on…

  5. Deconstructing Constructivism: Modeling Causal Relationships Among Constructivist Learning Environment Factors and Student Outcomes in Introductory Chemistry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Komperda, Regis

    The purpose of this dissertation is to test a model of relationships among factors characterizing aspects of a student-centered constructivist learning environment and student outcomes of satisfaction and academic achievement in introductory undergraduate chemistry courses. Constructivism was chosen as the theoretical foundation for this research because of its widespread use in chemical education research and practice. In a constructivist learning environment the role of the teacher shifts from delivering content towards facilitating active student engagement in activities that encourage individual knowledge construction through discussion and application of content. Constructivist approaches to teaching introductory chemistry courses have been adopted by some instructors as a way to improve student outcomes, but little research has been done on the causal relationships among particular aspects of the learning environment and student outcomes. This makes it difficult for classroom teachers to know which aspects of a constructivist teaching approach are critical to adopt and which may be modified to better suit a particular learning environment while still improving student outcomes. To investigate a model of these relationships, a survey designed to measure student perceptions of three factors characterizing a constructivist learning environment in online courses was adapted for use in face-to-face chemistry courses. These three factors, teaching presence, social presence, and cognitive presence, were measured using a slightly modified version of the Community of Inquiry (CoI) instrument. The student outcomes investigated in this research were satisfaction and academic achievement, as measured by standardized American Chemical Society (ACS) exam scores and course grades. Structural equation modeling (SEM) was used to statistically model relationships among the three presence factors and student outcome variables for 391 students enrolled in six sections of a

  6. Does the influence of risk factors on accident occurrence change over time?

    PubMed

    Elvik, Rune

    2016-06-01

    A large number of studies have been made to assess the relationship between risk factors and accident occurrence. A risk factor is any factor that makes an accident more likely to occur. Very many risk factors have been identified, for example, being under the influence of alcohol while driving, driving on slippery roads, entering complex junctions, or driving in hours of darkness. Few studies have been made to determine whether the associations between risk factors and accident occurrence remain stable over time. This paper presents examples of studies that have replicated estimates of risk. All these studies were made within a given country, using the same method, to ensure that estimates of risk are comparable. The risk factors included in the paper are: daylight, horizontal curves, junctions, road surface conditions, precipitation, drinking and driving and driver age. For all these risk factors, their association with accidents has changed over time, mostly becoming weaker. A protective factor, snow depth, is also included. Its protective effect has become smaller over time. Possible reasons for the weakening influence of risk factors are discussed. PMID:26974026

  7. Bilirubin as a potential causal factor in type 2 diabetes risk: a Mendelian randomization study

    PubMed Central

    Abbasi, Ali; Deetman, Petronella E.; Corpeleijn, Eva; Gansevoort, Ron T.; Gans, Rijk O.B.; Hillege, Hans L.; van der Harst, Pim; Stolk, Ronald P.; Navis, Gerjan; Alizadeh, Behrooz Z.; Bakker, Stephan J.L.

    2014-01-01

    Circulating bilirubin, a natural antioxidant, is associated with decreased risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D), but the nature of the relationship remains unknown. We performed Mendelian randomization in a prospective cohort of 3,381 participants free of diabetes at baseline (aged 28-75 years; women, 52.6%). We used rs6742078 located in UDP-glucuronosyltransferase (UGT1A1) locus as instrumental variable (IV) to study a potential causal effect of serum total bilirubin on T2D risk. T2D developed in a total of 210 (6.2%) participants during a median follow-up of 7.8 years. In adjusted analyses, rs6742078, which explained 19.5% of bilirubin variation, was strongly associated with total bilirubin (a 0.68-SD increase in bilirubin levels per T allele; P<1×10−122) and was also associated with T2D risk (OR 0.69 [95%CI, 0.54-0.90]; P=0.006). Per 1-SD increase in log-transformed bilirubin levels, we observed a 25% (OR 0.75 [95%CI, 0.62-0.92]; P=0.004) lower risk of T2D. In Mendelian randomization analysis, the causal risk reduction for T2D was estimated to be 42% (causal ORIVestimation per 1-SD increase in log-transformed bilirubin 0.58 [95%CI, 0.39-0.84]; P=0.005), which was comparable to the observational estimate (Durbin-Wu-Hausman chi-square test Pfor difference =0.19). These novel results provide evidence that elevated bilirubin is causally associated with risk of T2D and support its role as a protective determinant. PMID:25368098

  8. A causal examination of the effects of confounding factors on multimetric indices

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Schoolmaster, Donald R., Jr.; Grace, James B.; Schweiger, E. William; Mitchell, Brian R.; Guntenspergen, Glenn R.

    2013-01-01

    The development of multimetric indices (MMIs) as a means of providing integrative measures of ecosystem condition is becoming widespread. An increasingly recognized problem for the interpretability of MMIs is controlling for the potentially confounding influences of environmental covariates. Most common approaches to handling covariates are based on simple notions of statistical control, leaving the causal implications of covariates and their adjustment unstated. In this paper, we use graphical models to examine some of the potential impacts of environmental covariates on the observed signals between human disturbance and potential response metrics. Using simulations based on various causal networks, we show how environmental covariates can both obscure and exaggerate the effects of human disturbance on individual metrics. We then examine from a causal interpretation standpoint the common practice of adjusting ecological metrics for environmental influences using only the set of sites deemed to be in reference condition. We present and examine the performance of an alternative approach to metric adjustment that uses the whole set of sites and models both environmental and human disturbance effects simultaneously. The findings from our analyses indicate that failing to model and adjust metrics can result in a systematic bias towards those metrics in which environmental covariates function to artificially strengthen the metric–disturbance relationship resulting in MMIs that do not accurately measure impacts of human disturbance. We also find that a “whole-set modeling approach” requires fewer assumptions and is more efficient with the given information than the more commonly applied “reference-set” approach.

  9. [Risk factors associated with road accidents among young people in Tuscany (Italy): a cross sectional study].

    PubMed

    Innocenti, Francesco; Voller, Fabio; Berti, Alice; Silvestri, Caterina

    2013-01-01

    In most countries, national statistics institutes either do not measure or underestimate the impact of behavioral aspects as causes of road accidents. To bridge this gap, the Regional Health Agency of Tuscany (Italy) created the EDIT project, which evaluates driving behaviors and other lifestyle risk factors in a sample of secondary school students. Study results show that driving while under the influence of alcohol or drugs or while being distracted by cigarette smoking or the use of mobile phones are the risk factors most frequently associated with traffic accidents. PMID:23903036

  10. [Health education as a factor in decreasing traffic accidents].

    PubMed

    Niksić, D; Masić, I; Mehmedbegović-Zivanović, A

    1999-01-01

    Traffic security in post-war Bosnia and Herzegovina is getting worse. Use of motor vehicles and frequency of roads are in constant increase. Import of cars of different types, models, ages and quality caused that we are among the countries with insufficiently developed traffic security. Critical group of the traffic participants consists of young people and children. Their behaviour in traffic depends on their knowledge and attitude gained at home and school. Goal of this paper is to point out the importance of health-education activities in traffic security development. Evaluation was performed among the school children in a transit area in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Results show that school children have no enough knowledge about traffic rules; 13.4% of them don't know a single traffic sign. Even 19.9% of them got injured in traffic accidents, out of which 41.4% got injured while riding a bicycle and 22.4% as pedestrians. These initial results show that level of children's traffic culture can be raised only through systematic and permanent education within regular curriculum. Topics on traffic security should be an integral part of education programme, and presented through various subjects. PMID:10386049

  11. Risk factors for traffic accidents in Bangkok Metropolis: a case-reference study.

    PubMed

    Na Ayuthya, R S; Böhning, D

    1997-12-01

    It was aimed to study injures from road traffic accidents in Bangkok Metropolis and identify patients' characteristics as well as to search for risk factors for traffic accidents leading to hospitalization. The study included 346 in-patient cases suffering injuries from road traffic accidents in Bangkok Metropolis. The patients were recruited during a period of 4 months of the year 1992 from five hospitals in various areas of Bangkok which were judged to be representative for Bangkok Metropolis. Using the method of case-reference, relative risk could be estimated for various exposure factors. Most of the patients drove a motorcycle, had their license for only a short period, and drove more than 5 hours a day. About one third of the patients were under the influence of alcohol. The traffic accident characteristics were that they occurred mainly at night time with the peak between 21.00 and 24.00 hours. About 90% of all traffic accidents occurred during the rainy season and most of them occurred near to road junctions. Reference data was available for some variables and the following risk group could be identified: RR (male-age 20-24) = 17.06 (8.8-33.9), RR (single-marital status) = 2.25 (1.7-3.1), RR (primary-education) = 6.2 (2.9-12.6), RR (unskilled labourer-occupation) = 3.91 (2.7-5.9), RR (salesperson-occupation) = 3.34 (2.2-5.0). PMID:9656420

  12. Granger causality revisited

    PubMed Central

    Friston, Karl J.; Bastos, André M.; Oswal, Ashwini; van Wijk, Bernadette; Richter, Craig; Litvak, Vladimir

    2014-01-01

    This technical paper offers a critical re-evaluation of (spectral) Granger causality measures in the analysis of biological timeseries. Using realistic (neural mass) models of coupled neuronal dynamics, we evaluate the robustness of parametric and nonparametric Granger causality. Starting from a broad class of generative (state-space) models of neuronal dynamics, we show how their Volterra kernels prescribe the second-order statistics of their response to random fluctuations; characterised in terms of cross-spectral density, cross-covariance, autoregressive coefficients and directed transfer functions. These quantities in turn specify Granger causality — providing a direct (analytic) link between the parameters of a generative model and the expected Granger causality. We use this link to show that Granger causality measures based upon autoregressive models can become unreliable when the underlying dynamics is dominated by slow (unstable) modes — as quantified by the principal Lyapunov exponent. However, nonparametric measures based on causal spectral factors are robust to dynamical instability. We then demonstrate how both parametric and nonparametric spectral causality measures can become unreliable in the presence of measurement noise. Finally, we show that this problem can be finessed by deriving spectral causality measures from Volterra kernels, estimated using dynamic causal modelling. PMID:25003817

  13. Assessing the spatial variability of weights of landslide causal factors in different regions from Romania, using logistic regression

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Margarint, M. C.; Grozavu, A.; Patriche, C. V.

    2012-04-01

    Landslides represent a significant natural hazard in hilly areas of Romania which cause important damages. The scientific interest for landslide susceptibility mapping is quite recent and standardized through legislation. However, there is need for improving the methodology, in order for the susceptibility maps to constitute a sound basis for territorial planning. The logistic regression is one of the main statistical methods used for assessing terrain susceptibility for landsliding. There are different degrees of weighting the landslide causal factors mentioned in the scientific literature, but with large variations. This study aims to identify the range of variation of landslide causal factors for different regions in Romania. The following factors were taken into consideration: slope angle, terrain altitude, terrain curvature (mean, plan and profile), soil type, lithologic class, land use, distance from drainage network and roads, mean annual precipitations. Four square perimeters of 15x15 km were chosen from representative regions in terms of spatial extent of landslides: two situated in the central-northern part of the Moldavian Plateau, one in the Transylvania Depression and one in the Moldavian Subcarpathians. The logistic regression was applied separately for the four sectors. In order to monitor the differences in the final results, numerous attempts have been made, starting from landslides polygons acquired from both the topographic maps at scale 1:25.000 (1984-1985 edition) and the ortophotoimages (2005-2006). The other elements were acquired from cartographic materials at appropriate scales, according the international methodology. The data integration was accomplished in the georeferenced environment provided by TNTMips 6.9 ArcGIS 9.3 and SAGA 2.0.8 software packages, while the statistical analysis was performed using Excel 2003 and XLSTAT 2010 trial version. Maps for all landslide causal factors were achieved for each perimeter. The logistic

  14. Psychophysiological and other factors affecting human performance in accident prevention and investigation. [Comparison of aviation with other industries

    SciTech Connect

    Klinestiver, L.R.

    1980-01-01

    Psychophysiological factors are not uncommon terms in the aviation incident/accident investigation sequence where human error is involved. It is highly suspect that the same psychophysiological factors may also exist in the industrial arena where operator personnel function; but, there is little evidence in literature indicating how management and subordinates cope with these factors to prevent or reduce accidents. It is apparent that human factors psychophysological training is quite evident in the aviation industry. However, while the industrial arena appears to analyze psychophysiological factors in accident investigations, there is little evidence that established training programs exist for supervisors and operator personnel.

  15. Risk factors affecting fatal bus accident severity: Their impact on different types of bus drivers.

    PubMed

    Feng, Shumin; Li, Zhenning; Ci, Yusheng; Zhang, Guohui

    2016-01-01

    While the bus is generally considered to be a relatively safe means of transportation, the property losses and casualties caused by bus accidents, especially fatal ones, are far from negligible. The reasons for a driver to incur fatalities are different in each case, and it is essential to discover the underlying risk factors of bus fatality severity for different types of drivers in order to improve bus safety. The current study investigates the underlying risk factors of fatal bus accident severity to different types of drivers in the U.S. by estimating an ordered logistic model. Data for the analysis are retrieved from the Buses Involved in Fatal Accidents (BIFA) database from the USA for the years 2006-2010. Accidents are divided into three levels by counting their equivalent fatalities, and the drivers are classified into three clusters by the K-means cluster analysis. The analysis shows that some risk factors have the same impact on different types of drivers, they are: (a) season; (b) day of week; (c) time period; (d) number of vehicles involved; (e) land use; (f) manner of collision; (g) speed limit; (h) snow or ice surface condition; (i) school bus; (j) bus type and seating capacity; (k) driver's age; (l) driver's gender; (m) risky behaviors; and (n) restraint system. Results also show that some risk factors only have impact on the "young and elder drivers with history of traffic violations", they are: (a) section type; (b) number of lanes per direction; (c) roadway profile; (d) wet road surface; and (e) cyclist-bus accident. Notably, history of traffic violations has different impact on different types of bus drivers. PMID:26513334

  16. Analysis of Causal Relationships by Structural Equation Modeling to Determine the Factors Influencing Cognitive Function in Elderly People in Japan

    PubMed Central

    Kimura, Daisuke; Nakatani, Ken; Takeda, Tokunori; Fujita, Takashi; Sunahara, Nobuyuki; Inoue, Katsumi; Notoya, Masako

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to identify a potentiality factor that is a preventive factor for decline in cognitive function. Additionally, this study pursues to clarify the causal relationship between the each potential factor and its influence on cognitive function. Subjects were 366 elderly community residents (mean age 73.7 ± 6.4, male 51, female 315) who participated in the Taketoyo Project from 2007 to 2011. Factor analysis was conducted to identify groupings within mental, social, life, physical and cognitive functions. In order to detect clusters of 14 variables, the item scores were subjected to confirmatory factor analysis. We performed Structural Equation Modeling analysis to calculate the standardization coefficient and correlation coefficient for every factor. The cause and effect hypothesis model was used to gather two intervention theory hypotheses for dementia prevention (direct effect, indirect effect) in one system. Finally, we performed another Structural Equation Modeling analysis to calculate the standardization of the cause and effect hypothesis model. Social participation was found to be activated by the improvement of four factors, and in turn, activated “Social participation” acted on cognitive function. PMID:25658829

  17. Crew Communication as a Factor in Aviation Accidents

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Goguen, J.; Linde, C.; Murphy, M.

    1986-01-01

    The crew communication process is analyzed. Planning and explanation are shown to be well-structured discourse types, described by formal rules. These formal rules are integrated with those describing the other most important discourse type within the cockpit: the command-and-control speech act chain. The latter is described as a sequence of speech acts for making requests (including orders and suggestions), for making reports, for supporting or challenging statements, and for acknowledging previous speech acts. Mitigation level, a linguistic indication of indirectness and tentativeness in speech, was an important variable in several hypotheses, i.e., the speech of subordinates is more mitigated than the speech of superiors, the speech of all crewmembers is less mitigated when they know that they are in either a problem or emergency situation, and mitigation is a factor in failures of crewmembers to initiate discussion of new topics or have suggestions ratified by the captain. Test results also show that planning and explanation are more frequently performed by captains, are done more during crew- recognized problems, and are done less during crew-recognized emergencies. The test results also indicated that planning and explanation are more frequently performed by captains than by other crewmembers, are done more during crew-recognized problems, and are done less during-recognized emergencies.

  18. [Effect of atmospheric factors on the presentation of cerebrovascular accidents].

    PubMed

    López del Val, L J; Rubio, E; Calatayud, V; López del Val, J A; Sánchez, E

    1991-02-01

    The concept of meteoropathy implicates the atmospheric properties as determining or at least provoking causes of different disease conditions. Thus, we know that changes in temperature, atmospheric pressure and humidity rate are associated with a higher incidence of stroke presentation. Considered as a whole, these three atmospheric factors have been associated with the several clinical diagnoses of stroke. A higher presentation rate of stroke has been found when the three following facts concurred: a reduction of 10 degrees (C) in the temperature of the preceding day, an increase of the atmospheric humidity rate from 20% to 60% on the day of stroke, and an increase in atmospheric pressure of 6 mlbs from the preceding day (s = 0.0000). In addition, a higher rate of presentation of stroke was found when the difference in atmospheric pressure was 16 mlbs between the day of stroke and the preceding one (s = 0.049). Also, when the atmosphere humidity rate increased from 20% to 60%, the difference in mean temperature between the day of stroke and the preceding one was 3 degrees (C), and the atmospheric pressure increased in 6 mlbs, the incidence of stroke was higher (s = 0.007). We compare these findings with those from other authors. PMID:1863464

  19. FACTORS RELATED TO MOTORCYCLE ACCIDENT RISK BEHAVIOR AMONG UNIVERSITY STUDENTS IN NORTHEASTERN THAILAND.

    PubMed

    Chumpawadee, Urai; Homchampa, Pissamai; Thongkrajai, Pramote; Suwanimitr, Amorn; Chadbunchachai, Witaya

    2015-07-01

    Young motorcycle drivers in Thailand are at high risk for road traffic accidents. We conducted this study to identify factors associated with motorcycle accident risk behavior (MARB). We studied 372 randomly selected university students aged 18-22 years (mean 20.2 years; women comprised 68.0% of our participants), who attend a government university in northeastern Thailand. Each student was asked to fill out a questionnaire asking about MARB and factors associated with this behavior. The respondents had an average of 6.2 years (SD+3.09) motorcycle driving experience, 72.3% had a motorcycle driver's license and 83.0% had accident insurance. The prevalence of self-reported motorcycle accident injuries was 42.7%. Their major MARB were using a telephone while driving (69.3%), speeding (45.4%), driving with more than one passenger (40.1%), drunk driving (22.1%), and not wearing a helmet (23.3%). Factors related to MARB were: gender, with men engaged in risky behavior more often than women (p < 0.05); duration of motorcycle driving--drivers with > 5 years experience were more likely to engage in risky behavior (p < 0.05); and knowledge of safe driving, those with a greater knowledge of safe driving were more likely to drive safely (p < 0.001). Having a greater awareness of MARB was associated with lower risk of engaging in risky behavior (p < 0.001). Students who engaged in risky behavior were more likely to view it as normal behavior (p < 0.001) and less likely to have adequate self-control (p < 0.001). Our findings indicate a need to strengthen accident prevention programs for university students in northeastern Thailand. PMID:26867401

  20. Human and organisational factors in maritime accidents: analysis of collisions at sea using the HFACS.

    PubMed

    Chauvin, Christine; Lardjane, Salim; Morel, Gaël; Clostermann, Jean-Pierre; Langard, Benoît

    2013-10-01

    Over the last decade, the shipping industry has implemented a number of measures aimed at improving its safety level (such as new regulations or new forms of team training). Despite this evolution, shipping accidents, and particularly collisions, remain a major concern. This paper presents a modified version of the Human Factors Analysis and Classification System, which has been adapted to the maritime context and used to analyse human and organisational factors in collisions reported by the Marine Accident and Investigation Branch (UK) and the Transportation Safety Board (Canada). The analysis shows that most collisions are due to decision errors. At the precondition level, it highlights the importance of the following factors: poor visibility and misuse of instruments (environmental factors), loss of situation awareness or deficit of attention (conditions of operators), deficits in inter-ship communications or Bridge Resource Management (personnel factors). At the leadership level, the analysis reveals the frequent planning of inappropriate operations and non-compliance with the Safety Management System (SMS). The Multiple Accident Analysis provides an important finding concerning three classes of accidents. Inter-ship communications problems and Bridge Resource Management deficiencies are closely linked to collisions occurring in restricted waters and involving pilot-carrying vessels. Another class of collisions is associated with situations of poor visibility, in open sea, and shows deficiencies at every level of the socio-technical system (technical environment, condition of operators, leadership level, and organisational level). The third class is characterised by non-compliance with the SMS. This study shows the importance of Bridge Resource Management for situations of navigation with a pilot on board in restricted waters. It also points out the necessity to investigate, for situations of navigation in open sea, the masters' decisions in critical conditions

  1. An application of GIS and Bayesian network in studying spatial-causal relations between enterprises and environmental factors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shen, Tiyan; Li, Xi; Li, Maiqing

    2009-10-01

    The paper intends to employ Geographic Information System (GIS) and Bayesian Network to discover the spatial causality between enterprises and environmental factors in Beijing Metropolis. The census data of Beijing was spatialized by means of GIS in the beginning, and then the training data was made using density mapping technique. Base on the training data, the structure of a Bayesian Network was learnt with the help of Maximum Weight Spanning Tree. Eight direct relations were discussed in the end, of which, the most exciting discovery, "Enterprise-Run Society", as the symbol of the former planned economy, was emphasized in the spatial relations between heavy industry and schools. Though the final result is not so creative in economic perspective, it is of significance in technique view due to all discoveries were drawn from data, therefore leading to the realization of the importance of GIS and data mining to economic geography research.

  2. Causal Factors of Weld Porosity in Gas Tungsten Arc Welding of Powder-Metallurgy-Produced Titanium Alloys

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Muth, T. R.; Yamamoto, Y.; Frederick, D. A.; Contescu, C. I.; Chen, W.; Lim, Y. C.; Peter, W. H.; Feng, Z.

    2013-05-01

    An investigation was undertaken using gas tungsten arc (GTA) welding on consolidated powder metallurgy (PM) titanium (Ti) plate to identify the causal factors behind observed porosity in fusion welding. Tramp element compounds of sodium and magnesium, residual from the metallothermic reduction of titanium chloride used to produce the titanium, were remnant in the starting powder and were identified as gas-forming species. PM-titanium made from revert scrap, where sodium and magnesium were absent, showed fusion weld porosity, although to a lesser degree. We show that porosity was attributable to hydrogen from adsorbed water on the surface of the powders prior to consolidation. The removal and minimization of both adsorbed water on the surface of titanium powder and the residues from the reduction process prior to consolidation of titanium powders are critical for achieving equivalent fusion welding success similar to that seen in wrought titanium produced via the Kroll process.

  3. Comorbidity and radiation: methodological aspects of health assessment of persons exposed to the Chornobyl accident factors.

    PubMed

    Nosach, O V

    2013-01-01

    Comorbidity is one of the most challenging problems of a modern medicine. In a population exposed to the factors of the Chornobyl accident there is an obvious increase in the number of diseases occurring simultaneously against the background of rising prevalence of different classes of chronic medical nosology. The scientific data analysis are presented on the methodological approaches that can be used to create a specialized system for integrated assessment of the health of patients with comorbid disorders. Developing such a system it should be taken into account the trends of changes in the incidence, prevalence and structure of chronic disease, factors and regularities of comorbid disease in the cohorts of Chornobyl accident clean-up workers, evacuees and dwellers of contaminated territories. The system should provide a non-random selection of combinations (clusters) of the most common diseases with serious consequences for the survivors. PMID:25191728

  4. Risk and preventive factors for fatalities in All-terrain Vehicle Accidents in New Zealand.

    PubMed

    Shulruf, Boaz; Balemi, Andrew

    2010-03-01

    All-Terrain Vehicles (ATVs) have been used in agriculture for a few decades now. Yet despite their invaluable contribution to the productivity of the agricultural industry they are associated with a large number of accidents, many of which result in a severe or fatal outcome. The main objective of this study was to identify the risk factors for ATV-related fatal injuries in order to support the design of effective interventions. Using data held by the Department of Labour, the current study analysed 355 cases of serious harm accidents associated with ATVs including 45 fatalities. The findings suggest that injuries are more likely to occur when accidents involve any of the following: children under the age of 10; four-wheel drive ATVs; driving downhill; driving on a sealed road; driving backwards; or if the ATV rolls sideways. A fatal outcome is more likely to occur when ATV accidents end up with the vehicle rolling over and pinning the driver underneath. Fatalities were also associated with injuries to the head, neck and chest. Being employed; and/or having formal training; and/or having brakes and tyres well maintained on the ATV; and/or having no fluid load on the ATV reduced the risk for fatality. Since the likelihood of a fatal outcome was found to be related to human behaviour and ATV rollover, it is suggested that interventions should mainly address these two issues. PMID:20159086

  5. Factors affecting the probability of bus drivers being at-fault in bus-involved accidents.

    PubMed

    Goh, Kelvin; Currie, Graham; Sarvi, Majid; Logan, David

    2014-05-01

    Previous research has provided little insight into factors that influence the probability of bus drivers being at-fault in bus-involved accidents. In this study, an analysis was conducted on accident data compiled by a bus company that include an assessment on whether the bus driver was deemed by the company to hold primary responsibility for accident occurrence. Using a mixed logit modelling approach, roadway/environmental, vehicle and driver related variables that were identified to be influential were road type, speed limit, traffic/lighting conditions, bus priority, bus age/length and driver's age/gender/experience/historic at-fault accident record. Results were indicative of possible confined road-space issues that bus drivers face along routes with roadside traffic friction and point to the provision of exclusive right of way for buses as a possible way to address this. Results also suggest benefits in assigning routes comprising mainly divided roads as well as newer and shorter buses to less experienced drivers. PMID:24486771

  6. Accident investigation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Laynor, William G. Bud

    1987-01-01

    The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) has attributed wind shear as a cause or contributing factor in 15 accidents involving transport-categroy airplanes since 1970. Nine of these were nonfatal; but the other six accounted for 440 lives. Five of the fatal accidents and seven of the nonfatal accidents involved encounters with convective downbursts or microbursts. Of other accidents, two which were nonfatal were encounters with a frontal system shear, and one which was fatal was the result of a terrain induced wind shear. These accidents are discussed with reference to helping the aircraft to avoid the wind shear or if impossible to help the pilot to get through the wind shear.

  7. Expert explanations of honeybee losses in areas of extensive agriculture in France: Gaucho® compared with other supposed causal factors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maxim, L.; van der Sluijs, J. P.

    2010-01-01

    Debates on causality are at the core of controversies as regards environmental changes. The present paper presents a new method for analyzing controversies on causality in a context of social debate and the results of its empirical testing. The case study used is the controversy as regards the role played by the insecticide Gaucho®, compared with other supposed causal factors, in the substantial honeybee (Apis mellifera L.) losses reported to have occurred in France between 1994 and 2004. The method makes use of expert elicitation of the perceived strength of evidence regarding each of Bradford Hill's causality criteria, as regards the link between each of eight possible causal factors identified in attempts to explain each of five signs observed in honeybee colonies. These judgments are elicited from stakeholders and experts involved in the debate, i.e., representatives of Bayer Cropscience, of the Ministry of Agriculture, of the French Food Safety Authority, of beekeepers and of public scientists. We show that the intense controversy observed in confused and passionate public discourses is much less salient when the various arguments are structured using causation criteria. The contradictions between the different expert views have a triple origin: (1) the lack of shared definition and quantification of the signs observed in colonies; (2) the lack of specialist knowledge on honeybees; and (3) the strategic discursive practices associated with the lack of trust between experts representing stakeholders having diverging stakes in the case.

  8. Approaches for Strengthening Causal Inference Regarding Prenatal Risk Factors for Childhood Behavioural and Psychiatric Disorders

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lewis, Sarah J.; Relton, Caroline; Zammit, Stanley; Smith, George Davey

    2013-01-01

    Background: The risk of childhood behavioural and psychiatric diseases could be substantially reduced if modifiable risk factors for these disorders were identified. The critical period for many of these exposures is likely to be in utero as this is the time when brain development is most rapid. However, due to confounding and other limitations of…

  9. 49 CFR 225.12 - Rail Equipment Accident/Incident Reports alleging employee human factor as cause; Employee Human...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... employee human factor as cause; Employee Human Factor Attachment; notice to employee; employee supplement..., AND INVESTIGATIONS § 225.12 Rail Equipment Accident/Incident Reports alleging employee human factor as cause; Employee Human Factor Attachment; notice to employee; employee supplement. (a) Rail...

  10. 49 CFR 225.12 - Rail Equipment Accident/Incident Reports alleging employee human factor as cause; Employee Human...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... employee human factor as cause; Employee Human Factor Attachment; notice to employee; employee supplement..., AND INVESTIGATIONS § 225.12 Rail Equipment Accident/Incident Reports alleging employee human factor as cause; Employee Human Factor Attachment; notice to employee; employee supplement. (a) Rail...

  11. 49 CFR 225.12 - Rail Equipment Accident/Incident Reports alleging employee human factor as cause; Employee Human...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... employee human factor as cause; Employee Human Factor Attachment; notice to employee; employee supplement..., AND INVESTIGATIONS § 225.12 Rail Equipment Accident/Incident Reports alleging employee human factor as cause; Employee Human Factor Attachment; notice to employee; employee supplement. (a) Rail...

  12. 49 CFR 225.12 - Rail Equipment Accident/Incident Reports alleging employee human factor as cause; Employee Human...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... employee human factor as cause; Employee Human Factor Attachment; notice to employee; employee supplement..., AND INVESTIGATIONS § 225.12 Rail Equipment Accident/Incident Reports alleging employee human factor as cause; Employee Human Factor Attachment; notice to employee; employee supplement. (a) Rail...

  13. 49 CFR 225.12 - Rail Equipment Accident/Incident Reports alleging employee human factor as cause; Employee Human...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... employee human factor as cause; Employee Human Factor Attachment; notice to employee; employee supplement..., AND INVESTIGATIONS § 225.12 Rail Equipment Accident/Incident Reports alleging employee human factor as cause; Employee Human Factor Attachment; notice to employee; employee supplement. (a) Rail...

  14. [Psychological stress factors in erectile dysfunctions. Causal models and empirical results].

    PubMed

    Hartmann, U

    1998-09-01

    In this paper the role of psychosocial factors in erectile dysfunction is examined in two different ways: (1) Current approaches to the causation of psychogenic erectile dysfunctions are reviewed and discussed. (2) Empirical results from a large unselected sample of sexually dysfunctional men are presented and compared to a sample of functional men. Concerning etiological models the traditional unidimensional dichotomous concepts (psychogenic versus organic) of erectile dysfunction have to be abandoned and replaced by two-dimensional models that are able to take the clinical reality into account that many patients have both significant psychological and organic factors in their disorder. The main causes of psychogenic erectile disorders can be divided into three groups, each belonging to a different phase of time: (i) immediate factors (performance anxiety), (ii) antecedent life events from recent history, (iii) developmental vulnerabilities from childhood and adolescence. The specific interplay as well as the importance of the different groups is different in primary and secondary erectile disorders. The empirical results presented here are based on a sample of 751 patients from our interdisciplinary outpatient unit for sexually dysfunctional men and a group of 55 sexually functional men. Both groups completed a self-developed, multidimensional questionnaire addressing a variety of psychosocial and descriptive factors concerning erectile disorders. The results prove the heterogeneity of patients and their respective erectile problems and show a number of highly significant group differences. The frequent comorbidity of erectile disorders and premature ejaculation and disorders of desire is worth mentioning as well as the high prevalence of depression and the extreme extent of performance anxiety in the patient group. The results are discussed with respect to future treatment strategies. The necessity of combined psychosomatic approaches optimizing the efficacy of

  15. Aviation occupant survival factors: an empirical study of the SQ006 accident.

    PubMed

    Chang, Yu-Hern; Yang, Hui-Hua

    2010-03-01

    We present an empirical study of Singapore Airline (SIA) flight SQ006 to illustrate the critical factors that influence airplane occupant survivability. The Fuzzy Delphi Method was used to identify and rank the survival factors that may reduce injury and fatality in potentially survivable accidents. This is the first attempt by a group from both the public and private sectors in Taiwan to focus on cabin-safety issues related to survival factors. We designed a comprehensive survey based on our discussions with aviation safety experts. We next designed an array of important cabin-safety dimensions and then investigated and selected the critical survival factors for each dimension. Our findings reveal important cabin safety and survivability information that should provide a valuable reference for developing and evaluating aviation safety programs. We also believe that the results will be practical for designing cabin-safety education material for air travelers. Finally, the major contribution of this research is that it has identified 47 critical factors that influence accident survivability; therefore, it may encourage improvements that will promote more successful cabin-safety management. PMID:20159096

  16. Epidemiological causality.

    PubMed

    Morabia, Alfredo

    2005-01-01

    Epidemiological methods, which combine population thinking and group comparisons, can primarily identify causes of disease in populations. There is therefore a tension between our intuitive notion of a cause, which we want to be deterministic and invariant at the individual level, and the epidemiological notion of causes, which are invariant only at the population level. Epidemiologists have given heretofore a pragmatic solution to this tension. Causal inference in epidemiology consists in checking the logical coherence of a causality statement and determining whether what has been found grossly contradicts what we think we already know: how strong is the association? Is there a dose-response relationship? Does the cause precede the effect? Is the effect biologically plausible? Etc. This approach to causal inference can be traced back to the English philosophers David Hume and John Stuart Mill. On the other hand, the mode of establishing causality, devised by Jakob Henle and Robert Koch, which has been fruitful in bacteriology, requires that in every instance the effect invariably follows the cause (e.g., inoculation of Koch bacillus and tuberculosis). This is incompatible with epidemiological causality which has to deal with probabilistic effects (e.g., smoking and lung cancer), and is therefore invariant only for the population. PMID:16898206

  17. Relativistic causality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Valente, Giovanni; Owen Weatherall, James

    2014-11-01

    Relativity theory is often taken to include, or to imply, a prohibition on superluminal propagation of causal processes. Yet, what exactly the prohibition on superluminal propagation amounts to and how one should deal with its possible violation have remained open philosophical problems, both in the context of the metaphysics of causation and the foundations of physics. In particular, recent work in philosophy of physics has focused on the causal structure of spacetime in relativity theory and on how this causal structure manifests itself in our most fundamental theories of matter. These topics were the subject of a workshop on "Relativistic Causality in Quantum Field Theory and General Relativity" that we organized (along with John Earman) at the Center for Philosophy of Science in Pittsburgh on April 5-7, 2013. The present Special Issue comprises contributions by speakers in that workshop as well as several other experts exploring different aspects of relativistic causality. We are grateful to the journal for hosting this Special Issue, to the journal's managing editor, Femke Kuiling, for her help and support in putting the issue together, and to the authors and the referees for their excellent work.

  18. A review of protective factors and causal mechanisms that enhance the mental health of Indigenous Circumpolar youth

    PubMed Central

    MacDonald, Joanna Petrasek; Ford, James D.; Willox, Ashlee Cunsolo; Ross, Nancy A.

    2013-01-01

    Objectives To review the protective factors and causal mechanisms which promote and enhance Indigenous youth mental health in the Circumpolar North. Study design A systematic literature review of peer-reviewed English-language research was conducted to systematically examine the protective factors and causal mechanisms which promote and enhance Indigenous youth mental health in the Circumpolar North. Methods This review followed the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines, with elements of a realist review. From 160 records identified in the initial search of 3 databases, 15 met the inclusion criteria and were retained for full review. Data were extracted using a codebook to organize and synthesize relevant information from the articles. Results More than 40 protective factors at the individual, family, and community levels were identified as enhancing Indigenous youth mental health. These included practicing and holding traditional knowledge and skills, the desire to be useful and to contribute meaningfully to one's community, having positive role models, and believing in one's self. Broadly, protective factors at the family and community levels were identified as positively creating and impacting one's social environment, which interacts with factors at the individual level to enhance resilience. An emphasis on the roles of cultural and land-based activities, history, and language, as well as on the importance of social and family supports, also emerged throughout the literature. More than 40 protective factors at the individual, family, and community levels were identified as enhancing Indigenous youth mental health. These included practicing and holding traditional knowledge and skills, the desire to be useful and to contribute meaningfully to one's community, having positive role models, and believing in one's self. Broadly, protective factors at the family and community levels were identified as positively

  19. Causes and risk factors for fatal accidents in non-commercial twin engine piston general aviation aircraft.

    PubMed

    Boyd, Douglas D

    2015-04-01

    Accidents in twin-engine aircraft carry a higher risk of fatality compared with single engine aircraft and constitute 9% of all general aviation accidents. The different flight profile (higher airspeed, service ceiling, increased fuel load, and aircraft yaw in engine failure) may make comparable studies on single-engine aircraft accident causes less relevant. The objective of this study was to identify the accident causes for non-commercial operations in twin engine aircraft. A NTSB accident database query for accidents in twin piston engine airplanes of 4-8 seat capacity with a maximum certified weight of 3000-8000lbs. operating under 14CFR Part 91 for the period spanning 2002 and 2012 returned 376 accidents. Accident causes and contributing factors were as per the NTSB final report categories. Total annual flight hour data for the twin engine piston aircraft fleet were obtained from the FAA. Statistical analyses employed Chi Square, Fisher's Exact and logistic regression analysis. Neither the combined fatal/non-fatal accident nor the fatal accident rate declined over the period spanning 2002-2012. Under visual weather conditions, the largest number, n=27, (27%) of fatal accidents was attributed to malfunction with a failure to follow single engine procedures representing the most common contributing factor. In degraded visibility, poor instrument approach procedures resulted in the greatest proportion of fatal crashes. Encountering thunderstorms was the most lethal of all accident causes with all occupants sustaining fatal injuries. At night, a failure to maintain obstacle/terrain clearance was the most common accident cause leading to 36% of fatal crashes. The results of logistic regression showed that operations at night (OR 3.7), off airport landings (OR 14.8) and post-impact fire (OR 7.2) all carried an excess risk of a fatal flight. This study indicates training areas that should receive increased emphasis for twin-engine training/recency. First, increased

  20. Chronically restricted or disrupted sleep as a causal factor in the development of depression.

    PubMed

    Meerlo, Peter; Havekes, Robbert; Steiger, Axel

    2015-01-01

    Sleep problems are a common complaint in the majority of people suffering from depression. While sleep complaints were traditionally seen as a symptom of mood disorders, accumulating evidence suggests that in many cases the relationship may be reverse as well. A long list of longitudinal studies shows that sleep complaints often precede the onset of depression and constitute an independent risk factor for the development of the disorder. Additionally, experimental studies in animals show that chronically restricted or disrupted sleep may gradually induce neurobiological changes that are very similar to what has been reported for depressed patients. The mechanisms through which insufficient sleep increases the risk for depression are poorly understood but may include effects of sleep disturbance on neuroendocrine stress systems, serotonergic neurotransmission, and various interacting signaling pathways involved in the regulation of neuronal plasticity and neurogenesis. Because sleep is considered to play a crucial role in regulating neuronal plasticity and synaptic strength, chronically insufficient sleep may contribute to depression through an impairment of these plasticity processes leading to altered connectivity and communication within and between brain regions involved in the regulation of mood. PMID:25646723

  1. Effective Factors in Severity of Traffic Accident-Related Traumas; an Epidemiologic Study Based on the Haddon Matrix

    PubMed Central

    Masoumi, Kambiz; Forouzan, Arash; Barzegari, Hassan; Asgari Darian, Ali; Rahim, Fakher; Zohrevandi, Behzad; Nabi, Somayeh

    2016-01-01

    Introduction: Traffic accidents are the 8th cause of mortality in different countries and are expected to rise to the 3rd rank by 2020. Based on the Haddon matrix numerous factors such as environment, host, and agent can affect the severity of traffic-related traumas. Therefore, the present study aimed to evaluate the effective factors in severity of these traumas based on Haddon matrix. Methods: In the present 1-month cross-sectional study, all the patients injured in traffic accidents, who were referred to the ED of Imam Khomeini and Golestan Hospitals, Ahvaz, Iran, during March 2013 were evaluated. Based on the Haddon matrix, effective factors in accident occurrence were defined in 3 groups of host, agent, and environment. Demographic data of the patients and data regarding Haddon risk factors were extracted and analyzed using SPSS version 20. Results: 700 injured people with the mean age of 29.66 ± 12.64 years (3-82) were evaluated (92.4% male). Trauma mechanism was car-pedestrian in 308 (44%) of the cases and car-motorcycle in 175 (25%). 610 (87.1%) cases were traffic accidents and 371 (53%) occurred in the time between 2 pm and 8 pm. Violation of speed limit was the most common violation with 570 (81.4%) cases, followed by violation of right-of-way in 57 (8.1%) patients. 59.9% of the severe and critical injuries had occurred on road accidents, while 61.3% of the injuries caused by traffic accidents were mild to moderate (p < 0.001). The most common mechanisms of trauma for critical injuries were rollover (72.5%), motorcycle-pedestrian (23.8%), and car-motorcycle (13.14%) accidents (p < 0.001). Conclusion: Based on the results of the present study, the most important effective factors in severity of traffic accident-related traumas were age over 50, not using safety tools, and undertaking among host-related factors; insufficient environment safety, road accidents and time between 2 pm and 8 pm among environmental factors; and finally, rollover, car

  2. Pilot Human Factors in Stall/Spin Accidents of Supersonic Fighter Aircraft

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Anderson, S. B.; Enevoldson, E. K.; Nguyen, L. T.

    1983-01-01

    A study has been made of pilot human factors related to stall/spin accidents of supersonic fighter aircraft. The military specifications for flight at high angles of attack are examined. Several pilot human factors problems related to stall/spin are discussed. These problems include (1) unsatisfactory nonvisual warning cues; (2) the inability of the pilot to quickly determine if the aircraft is spinning out of control, or to recognize the type of spin; (3) the inability of the pilot to decide on and implement the correct spin recovery technique; (4) the inability of the pilot to move, caused by high angular rotation; and (5) the tendency of pilots to wait too long in deciding to abandon the irrecoverable aircraft. Psycho-physiological phenomena influencing pilot's behavior in stall/spin situations include (1) channelization of sensory inputs, (2) limitations in precisely controlling several muscular inputs, (3) inaccurate judgment of elapsed time, and (4) disorientation of vestibulo-ocular inputs. Results are given of pilot responses to all these problems in the F14A, F16/AB, and F/A-18A aircraft. The use of departure spin resistance and automatic spin prevention systems incorporated on recent supersonic fighters are discussed. These systems should help to improve the stall/spin accident record with some compromise in maneuverability.

  3. Quantification method analysis of the relationship between occupant injury and environmental factors in traffic accidents.

    PubMed

    Ju, Yong Han; Sohn, So Young

    2011-01-01

    Injury analysis following a vehicle crash is one of the most important research areas. However, most injury analyses have focused on one-dimensional injury variables, such as the AIS (Abbreviated Injury Scale) or the IIS (Injury Impairment Scale), at a time in relation to various traffic accident factors. However, these studies cannot reflect the various injury phenomena that appear simultaneously. In this paper, we apply quantification method II to the NASS (National Automotive Sampling System) CDS (Crashworthiness Data System) to find the relationship between the categorical injury phenomena, such as the injury scale, injury position, and injury type, and the various traffic accident condition factors, such as speed, collision direction, vehicle type, and seat position. Our empirical analysis indicated the importance of safety devices, such as restraint equipment and airbags. In addition, we found that narrow impact, ejection, air bag deployment, and higher speed are associated with more severe than minor injury to the thigh, ankle, and leg in terms of dislocation, abrasion, or laceration. PMID:21094332

  4. NASA-ONERA Collaboration on Human Factors in Aviation Accidents and Incidents

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Srivastava, Ashok N.; Fabiani, Patrick

    2012-01-01

    This is the first annual report jointly prepared by NASA and ONERA on the work performed under the agreement to collaborate on a study of the human factors entailed in aviation accidents and incidents, particularly focused on the consequences of decreases in human performance associated with fatigue. The objective of this agreement is to generate reliable, automated procedures that improve understanding of the levels and characteristics of flight-crew fatigue factors whose confluence will likely result in unacceptable crew performance. This study entails the analyses of numerical and textual data collected during operational flights. NASA and ONERA are collaborating on the development and assessment of automated capabilities for extracting operationally significant information from very large, diverse (textual and numerical) databases; much larger than can be handled practically by human experts.

  5. Clastogenic factors in the plasma of Chernobyl accident recovery workers: Anticlastogenic effect of Ginkgo biloba extract

    SciTech Connect

    Emerit, I.; Levy, A.; Cernjavski, L.

    1995-11-01

    Clastogenic factors are found in the plasma of persons irradiated accidentally or therapeutically. They persisted in the plasma of A-bomb survivors over 30 years. Clastogenic factors were found in 33 or 47 Chernobyl accident recovery workers (often referred to as liquidators) in a previous study. In the present study, we show that there is a positive correlation between clastogenic activity and dose and that these biomarkers of oxidative stress can be influenced successfully by appropriate antioxidant treatment. With the authorization of the Armenian Ministry of Health, 30 workers were treated with antioxidants from Ginkgo biloba leaves. The extract EGb 761 containing flavonoids and terpenoids was given at a daily dose of 3 x 40 mg (Tanakan, IPSEN, France) during 2 months. The clastogenic activity of the plasma was reduced to control levels on the first day after the end of the treatment. A 1-year follow-up showed that the benefit of the treatment persisted for at least 7 months. One-third of the workers again had clastogenic factors after 1 year, demonstrating that the process which produced clastogenic factors continued. However, the observation that antioxidants do not have to be given continuously is encouraging for intervention trials on a large-scale basis. These appear justified, since clastogenic factors are thought to be risk factors for the development of late effects of irradiation. 43 refs., 6 tabs.

  6. Causal Inference and Developmental Psychology

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Foster, E. Michael

    2010-01-01

    Causal inference is of central importance to developmental psychology. Many key questions in the field revolve around improving the lives of children and their families. These include identifying risk factors that if manipulated in some way would foster child development. Such a task inherently involves causal inference: One wants to know whether…

  7. 32P measurement and dose conversion factor evaluation of activated human hair by criticality accident.

    PubMed

    Yoon, Seokwon; Ha, Wi-Ho; Park, Seyoung; Shin, Seongwook; Yoo, Jaeryong; Park, Sunhoo; Lee, Seung-Sook

    2014-10-01

    In order to conduct dose assessment of victims in criticality accidents, a method of fast neutron capture-activated (32)P measurement of hair in which samples are treated by a chemical and analytical procedure that takes 9 h and measurement is conducted by liquid scintillation counting is presented. To validate this measurement method, hair samples spiked with a (32)P reference source were measured and the results analysed and the optimal sample mass and detection efficiency were determined. To verify the correlation between (32)P-specific activity and absorbed dose for spectra with two neutron mean energies, samples collected from three normal individuals were irradiated at various neutron energies and irradiation times using the MC50 Cyclotron of the Korea Institute of Radiological and Medical Sciences. The (32)P-specific activity trend of the irradiated hair agreed well with the absorbed doses. Based on the results, dose conversion factors, which were 0.67 ± 0.15 and 0.59 ± 0.06 Gy (Bq g(-1))(-1) at neutron mean energies of 2.33 and 5.36 MeV, respectively, were calculated as a guide for medical treatment of criticality accident victims. PMID:24516187

  8. Learning from the Piper Alpha accident: A postmortem analysis of technical and organizational factors

    SciTech Connect

    Pate-Cornell, M.E. )

    1993-04-01

    The accident that occurred on board the offshore platform Piper Alpha in July 1988 killed 167 people and cost billions of dollars in property damage. It was caused by a massive fire, which was not the result of an unpredictable act of God' but of an accumulation of errors and questionable decisions. Most of them were rooted in the organization, its structure, procedures, and culture. This paper analyzes the accident scenario using the risk analysis framework, determines which human decision and actions influenced the occurrence of the basic events, and then identifies the organizational roots of these decisions and actions. These organizational factors are generalizable to other industries and engineering systems. They include flaws in the design guidelines and design practices (e.g., tight physical couplings or insufficient redundancies), misguided priorities in the management of the tradeoff between productivity and safety, mistakes in the management of the personnel on board, and errors of judgement in the process by which financial pressures are applied on the production sector (i.e., the oil companies' definition of profit centers) resulting in deficiencies in inspection and maintenance operations. This analytical approach allows identification of risk management measures that go beyond the purely technical (e.g., add redundancies to a safety system) and also include improvements of management practices. 18 refs., 4 figs.

  9. Computation of cross sections and dose conversion factors for criticality accident dosimetry.

    PubMed

    Devine, R T

    2004-01-01

    In the application of criticality accident dosemeters the cross sections and fluence-to-dose conversion factors have to be computed. The cross section and fluence-to-dose conversion factor for the thermal and epi-thermal contributions to neutron dose are well documented; for higher energy regions (>100 keV) these depend on the spectrum assumed. Fluence is determined using threshold detectors. The cross sections require the folding of an expected spectrum with the reaction cross sections. The fluence-to-dose conversion factors also require a similar computation. The true and effective thresholds are used to include the information on the expected spectrum. The spectra can either be taken from compendia or measured at the facility at which the exposures are to be expected. The cross sections can be taken from data computations or analytic representations and the fluence-to-dose conversion factors are determined by various standards making bodies. The problem remaining is the method of computation. The purpose of this paper is to compare two methods for computing these factors: analytic and Monte Carlo. PMID:15353697

  10. Analyzing the causation of a railway accident based on a complex network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ma, Xin; Li, Ke-Ping; Luo, Zi-Yan; Zhou, Jin

    2014-02-01

    In this paper, a new model is constructed for the causation analysis of railway accident based on the complex network theory. In the model, the nodes are defined as various manifest or latent accident causal factors. By employing the complex network theory, especially its statistical indicators, the railway accident as well as its key causations can be analyzed from the overall perspective. As a case, the “7.23” China—Yongwen railway accident is illustrated based on this model. The results show that the inspection of signals and the checking of line conditions before trains run played an important role in this railway accident. In conclusion, the constructed model gives a theoretical clue for railway accident prediction and, hence, greatly reduces the occurrence of railway accidents.

  11. Factors associated with nurses' intention to leave their jobs after the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power plant accident.

    PubMed

    Sato, Yoshinobu; Hayashida, Naomi; Orita, Makiko; Urata, Hideko; Shinkawa, Tetsuko; Fukushima, Yoshiko; Nakashima, Yumiko; Kudo, Takashi; Yamashita, Shunichi; Takamura, Noboru

    2015-01-01

    We conducted a survey among nurses who were working at the Fukushima Medical University Hospital at the time of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident to clarify the factors associated with their intention to leave their jobs during the radiation emergency. We asked 345 nurses (17 men and 328 women) about their intention to leave their jobs after the accident. We also asked about relevant factors including the participants' demographic factors, living situation, working status, and knowledge of radiation health effects. We found that living with preschoolers (OR = 1.87, 95%CI: 1.02-3.44, p = 0.042), anxiety about life in Fukushima City after the accident (OR = 5.55, 95%CI: 1.18-26.13, p = 0.030), consideration of evacuation from Fukushima after the accident (OR = 2.42, 95%CI: 1.45-4.06, p = 0.001), consideration of the possible radiation health effects in children (OR = 1.90, 95%CI: 1.02-3.44, p = 0.042), and anxiety about relationships with colleagues in the hospital after the accident (OR = 3.23, p = 0.001) were independently associated with the nurses' intention to leave their jobs after the accident. On the other hand, the percentage of nurses with knowledge on radiation health effects was relatively low among those who had the intention to leave the job and among those who did not have the intention to leave the job after the accident, with no significant differences between the two groups. Our results suggest the need for an education program for nurses regarding radiation health effects. PMID:25816345

  12. Factors Associated with Nurses’ Intention to Leave Their Jobs after the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant Accident

    PubMed Central

    Sato, Yoshinobu; Hayashida, Naomi; Orita, Makiko; Urata, Hideko; Shinkawa, Tetsuko; Fukushima, Yoshiko; Nakashima, Yumiko; Kudo, Takashi; Yamashita, Shunichi; Takamura, Noboru

    2015-01-01

    We conducted a survey among nurses who were working at the Fukushima Medical University Hospital at the time of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident to clarify the factors associated with their intention to leave their jobs during the radiation emergency. We asked 345 nurses (17 men and 328 women) about their intention to leave their jobs after the accident. We also asked about relevant factors including the participants’ demographic factors, living situation, working status, and knowledge of radiation health effects. We found that living with preschoolers (OR = 1.87, 95%CI: 1.02–3.44, p = 0.042), anxiety about life in Fukushima City after the accident (OR = 5.55, 95%CI: 1.18–26.13, p = 0.030), consideration of evacuation from Fukushima after the accident (OR = 2.42, 95%CI: 1.45–4.06, p = 0.001), consideration of the possible radiation health effects in children (OR = 1.90, 95%CI: 1.02–3.44, p = 0.042), and anxiety about relationships with colleagues in the hospital after the accident (OR = 3.23, p = 0.001) were independently associated with the nurses’ intention to leave their jobs after the accident. On the other hand, the percentage of nurses with knowledge on radiation health effects was relatively low among those who had the intention to leave the job and among those who did not have the intention to leave the job after the accident, with no significant differences between the two groups. Our results suggest the need for an education program for nurses regarding radiation health effects. PMID:25816345

  13. Attribution of Causal and Moral Responsibility to Victims of Father-Daughter Incest: An Exploratory Examination of Five Factors.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Collings, Steven J.; Payne, Merrilee F.

    1991-01-01

    Undergraduate students (n=480) responded to a vignette describing a sexual interaction between a father and daughter (either 7 or 15 years old). More causal and moral responsibility was attributed to victims who responded passively. Older victims were perceived to be more morally responsible than younger victims but only in situations involving…

  14. First Annual Report: NASA-ONERA Collaboration on Human Factors in Aviation Accidents and Incidents

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Srivastava, Ashok; Fabiani, Patrick

    2012-01-01

    This is the first annual report jointly prepared by NASA and ONERA on the work performed under the agreement to collaborate on a study of the human factors entailed in aviation accidents and incidents particularly focused on consequences of decreases in human performance associated with fatigue. The objective of this Agreement is to generate reliable, automated procedures that improve understanding of the levels and characteristics of flight-crew fatigue factors whose confluence will likely result in unacceptable crew performance. This study entails the analyses of numerical and textual data collected during operational flights. NASA and ONERA are collaborating on the development and assessment of automated capabilities for extracting operationally significant information from very large, diverse (textual and numerical) databases much larger than can be handled practically by human experts. This report presents the approach that is currently expected to be used in processing and analyzing the data for identifying decrements in aircraft performance and examining their relationships to decrements in crewmember performance due to fatigue. The decisions on the approach were based on samples of both the numerical and textual data that will be collected during the four studies planned under the Human Factors Monitoring Program (HFMP). Results of preliminary analyses of these sample data are presented in this report.

  15. Derivation of Accident-Specific Material-at-Risk Equivalency Factors

    SciTech Connect

    Jason P. Andrus; Dr. Chad L. Pope

    2012-05-01

    A novel method for calculating material at risk (MAR) dose equivalency developed at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) now allows for increased utilization of dose equivalency for facility MAR control. This method involves near-real time accounting for the use of accident and material specific release and transport. It utilizes all information from the committed effective dose equation and the five factor source term equation to derive dose equivalency factors which can be used to establish an overall facility or process MAR limit. The equivalency factors allow different nuclide spectrums to be compared for their respective dose consequences by relating them to a specific quantity of an identified reference nuclide. The ability to compare spectrums to a reference limit ensures that MAR limits are in fact bounding instead of attempting to establish a representative or bounding spectrum which may lead to unintended or unanalyzed configurations. This methodology is then coupled with a near real time material tracking system which allows for accurate and timely material composition information and corresponding MAR equivalency values. The development of this approach was driven by the complex nature of processing operations in some INL facilities. This type of approach is ideally suited for facilities and processes where the composition of the MAR and possible release mechanisms change frequently but in well defined fashions and in a batch-type nature.

  16. Exploring causal associations of alcohol with cardiovascular and metabolic risk factors in a Chinese population using Mendelian randomization analysis.

    PubMed

    Taylor, Amy E; Lu, Feng; Carslake, David; Hu, Zhibin; Qian, Yun; Liu, Sijun; Chen, Jiaping; Shen, Hongbing; Smith, George Davey

    2015-01-01

    Observational studies suggest that moderate alcohol consumption may be protective for cardiovascular disease, but results may be biased by confounding and reverse causality. Mendelian randomization, which uses genetic variants as proxies for exposures, can minimise these biases and therefore strengthen causal inference. Using a genetic variant in the ALDH2 gene associated with alcohol consumption, rs671, we performed a Mendelian randomization analysis in 1,712 diabetes cases and 2,076 controls from Nantong, China. Analyses were performed using linear and logistic regression, stratified by sex and diabetes status. The A allele of rs671 was strongly associated with reduced odds of being an alcohol drinker in all groups, but prevalence of alcohol consumption amongst females was very low. The A allele was associated with reduced systolic and diastolic blood pressure and decreased total and HDL cholesterol in males. The A allele was also associated with decreased triglyceride levels, but only robustly in diabetic males. There was no strong evidence for associations between rs671 and any outcomes in females. Our results suggest that associations of alcohol consumption with blood pressure and HDL-cholesterol are causal. Alcohol also appeared to have adverse effects on triglyceride levels, although this may be restricted to diabetics. PMID:26364564

  17. Exploring causal associations of alcohol with cardiovascular and metabolic risk factors in a Chinese population using Mendelian randomization analysis

    PubMed Central

    Taylor, Amy E.; Lu, Feng; Carslake, David; Hu, Zhibin; Qian, Yun; Liu, Sijun; Chen, Jiaping; Shen, Hongbing; Smith, George Davey

    2015-01-01

    Observational studies suggest that moderate alcohol consumption may be protective for cardiovascular disease, but results may be biased by confounding and reverse causality. Mendelian randomization, which uses genetic variants as proxies for exposures, can minimise these biases and therefore strengthen causal inference. Using a genetic variant in the ALDH2 gene associated with alcohol consumption, rs671, we performed a Mendelian randomization analysis in 1,712 diabetes cases and 2,076 controls from Nantong, China. Analyses were performed using linear and logistic regression, stratified by sex and diabetes status. The A allele of rs671 was strongly associated with reduced odds of being an alcohol drinker in all groups, but prevalence of alcohol consumption amongst females was very low. The A allele was associated with reduced systolic and diastolic blood pressure and decreased total and HDL cholesterol in males. The A allele was also associated with decreased triglyceride levels, but only robustly in diabetic males. There was no strong evidence for associations between rs671 and any outcomes in females. Our results suggest that associations of alcohol consumption with blood pressure and HDL-cholesterol are causal. Alcohol also appeared to have adverse effects on triglyceride levels, although this may be restricted to diabetics. PMID:26364564

  18. On causality of extreme events

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    Multiple metrics have been developed to detect causality relations between data describing the elements constituting complex systems, all of them considering their evolution through time. Here we propose a metric able to detect causality within static data sets, by analysing how extreme events in one element correspond to the appearance of extreme events in a second one. The metric is able to detect non-linear causalities; to analyse both cross-sectional and longitudinal data sets; and to discriminate between real causalities and correlations caused by confounding factors. We validate the metric through synthetic data, dynamical and chaotic systems, and data representing the human brain activity in a cognitive task. We further show how the proposed metric is able to outperform classical causality metrics, provided non-linear relationships are present and large enough data sets are available. PMID:27330866

  19. Distribution of Causes in Selected US Aviation Accident Reports Between 1996 and 2003

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Holloway, C. M.; Johnson, C. W.

    2004-01-01

    This paper describes the results of an independent analysis of the probable and contributory causes of selected aviation accidents in the United States between 1996 and 2003. The purpose of the study was to assess the comparative frequency of a variety of causal factors in the reporting of these adverse events. Although our results show that more of these high consequence accidents were attributed to human error than to any other single factor, a large number of reports also mentioned wider systemic issues, including the managerial and regulatory context of aviation operations. These wider issues are more likely to appear as contributory rather than primary causes in this set of accident reports.

  20. Assessing the Causality Factors in the Association between (Abdominal) Obesity and Physical Activity among the Newfoundland Population—A Mendelian Randomization Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Barning, Frank; Abarin, Taraneh

    2016-01-01

    A total of 1,263 adults from Newfoundland and Labrador were studied in the research. Body mass index (BMI) and percent trunk fat (PTF) were analyzed as biomarkers for obesity. The Mendelian randomization (MR) approach with two single-nucleotide polymorphisms in the fat-mass and obesity (FTO) gene as instruments was employed to assess the causal effect. In both genders, increasing physical activity significantly reduced BMI and PTF when adjusted for age and the FTO gene. The effect of physical activity was stronger on PTF than BMI. Direct observational analyses showed significant increase in BMI/PTF when physical activity decreased. A similar association in MR analyses was not significant. The association between physical activity and BMI/PTF could be due to reversed causality or common confounding factors. Our study provides insights into the causal contributions of obesity to physical activity in adults. Health intervention strategies to increase physical activity among adults should include some other plans such as improving diet for reducing obesity. PMID:27478388

  1. Effect of roadway geometrics and environmental factors on rural freeway accident frequencies.

    PubMed

    Shankar, V; Mannering, F; Barfield, W

    1995-06-01

    This paper explores the frequency of occurrence of highway accidents on the basis of a multivariate analysis of roadway geometrics (e.g. horizontal and vertical alignments), weather, and other seasonal effects. Based on accident data collected in the field, a negative binomial model of overall accident frequencies is estimated along with models of the frequency of specific accident types. Interactions between weather and geometric variables are proposed as part of the model specifications. The results of the analysis uncover important determinants of accident frequency. By studying the relationship between weather and geometric elements, this paper offers insight into potential measures to counter the adverse effects of weather on highway sections with challenging geometrics. PMID:7639921

  2. Causal inference and developmental psychology.

    PubMed

    Foster, E Michael

    2010-11-01

    Causal inference is of central importance to developmental psychology. Many key questions in the field revolve around improving the lives of children and their families. These include identifying risk factors that if manipulated in some way would foster child development. Such a task inherently involves causal inference: One wants to know whether the risk factor actually causes outcomes. Random assignment is not possible in many instances, and for that reason, psychologists must rely on observational studies. Such studies identify associations, and causal interpretation of such associations requires additional assumptions. Research in developmental psychology generally has relied on various forms of linear regression, but this methodology has limitations for causal inference. Fortunately, methodological developments in various fields are providing new tools for causal inference-tools that rely on more plausible assumptions. This article describes the limitations of regression for causal inference and describes how new tools might offer better causal inference. This discussion highlights the importance of properly identifying covariates to include (and exclude) from the analysis. This discussion considers the directed acyclic graph for use in accomplishing this task. With the proper covariates having been chosen, many of the available methods rely on the assumption of "ignorability." The article discusses the meaning of ignorability and considers alternatives to this assumption, such as instrumental variables estimation. Finally, the article considers the use of the tools discussed in the context of a specific research question, the effect of family structure on child development. PMID:20677855

  3. Risk Factors for Accident Death in the U.S. Army, 2004–2009

    PubMed Central

    Lewandowski-Romps, Lisa; Peterson, Christopher; Berglund, Patricia A.; Collins, Stacey; Cox, Kenneth; Hauret, Keith; Jones, Bruce; Kessler, Ronald C.; Mitchell, Colter; Park, Nansook; Schoenbaum, Michael; Stein, Murray B.; Ursano, Robert J.; Heeringa, Steven G.

    2014-01-01

    Background Accidents are one of the leading causes of death among U.S. active duty Army soldiers. Evidence-based approaches to injury prevention could be strengthened by adding person-level characteristics (e.g., demographics) to risk models tested on diverse soldier samples studied over time. Purpose To identify person-level risk indicators of accident deaths in Regular Army soldiers during a time frame of intense military operations, and to discriminate risk of not-line-of-duty (NLOD) from line-of-duty (LOD) accident deaths. Methods Administrative data acquired from multiple Army/Department of Defense sources for active duty Army soldiers during 2004–2009 were analyzed in 2013. Logistic regression modeling was used to identify person-level sociodemographic, service-related, occupational, and mental health predictors of accident deaths. Results Delayed rank progression or demotion and being male, unmarried, in a combat arms specialty, and of low rank/service length increased odds of accident death for enlisted soldiers. Unique to officers was high risk associated with aviation specialties. Accident death risk decreased over time for currently deployed, enlisted soldiers while increasing for those never deployed. Mental health diagnosis was associated with risk only for previous and never-deployed, enlisted soldiers. Models did not discriminate NLOD from LOD accident deaths. Conclusions Adding more refined person-level and situational risk indicators to current models could enhance understanding of accident death risk specific to soldier rank and deployment status. Stable predictors could help identify high risk of accident deaths in future cohorts of Regular Army soldiers. PMID:25441238

  4. Quantum causal modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Costa, Fabio; Shrapnel, Sally

    2016-06-01

    Causal modelling provides a powerful set of tools for identifying causal structure from observed correlations. It is well known that such techniques fail for quantum systems, unless one introduces ‘spooky’ hidden mechanisms. Whether one can produce a genuinely quantum framework in order to discover causal structure remains an open question. Here we introduce a new framework for quantum causal modelling that allows for the discovery of causal structure. We define quantum analogues for core features of classical causal modelling techniques, including the causal Markov condition and faithfulness. Based on the process matrix formalism, this framework naturally extends to generalised structures with indefinite causal order.

  5. Introduction to Causal Dynamical Triangulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Görlich, Andrzej

    The method of causal dynamical triangulations is a non-perturbative and background-independent approach to quantum theory of gravity. In this review we present recent results obtained within the four dimensional model of causal dynamical triangulations. We describe the phase structure of the model and demonstrate how a macroscopic four-dimensional de Sitter universe emerges dynamically from the full gravitational path integral. We show how to reconstruct the effective action describing scale factor fluctuations from Monte Carlo data.

  6. Causal reasoning with forces

    PubMed Central

    Wolff, Phillip; Barbey, Aron K.

    2015-01-01

    Causal composition allows people to generate new causal relations by combining existing causal knowledge. We introduce a new computational model of such reasoning, the force theory, which holds that people compose causal relations by simulating the processes that join forces in the world, and compare this theory with the mental model theory (Khemlani et al., 2014) and the causal model theory (Sloman et al., 2009), which explain causal composition on the basis of mental models and structural equations, respectively. In one experiment, the force theory was uniquely able to account for people's ability to compose causal relationships from complex animations of real-world events. In three additional experiments, the force theory did as well as or better than the other two theories in explaining the causal compositions people generated from linguistically presented causal relations. Implications for causal learning and the hierarchical structure of causal knowledge are discussed. PMID:25653611

  7. Inroads into Equestrian Safety: Rider-Reported Factors Contributing to Horse-Related Accidents and Near Misses on Australian Roads

    PubMed Central

    Thompson, Kirrilly; Matthews, Chelsea

    2015-01-01

    Simple Summary Riding horses on roads can be dangerous, but little is known about accidents and near misses. To explore road safety issues amongst Australian equestrians, we conducted an online survey. More than half of all riders (52%) reported having experienced at least one accident or near miss in the 12 months prior to the survey, mostly attributed to speed. Whilst our findings confirmed factors identified overseas, we also identified issues around road rules, hand signals and road rage. This paper suggests strategies for improving the safety of horses, riders and other road users. Abstract Horse riding and horse-related interactions are inherently dangerous. When they occur on public roads, the risk profile of equestrian activities is complicated by interactions with other road users. Research has identified speed, proximity, visibility, conspicuity and mutual misunderstanding as factors contributing to accidents and near misses. However, little is known about their significance or incidence in Australia. To explore road safety issues amongst Australian equestrians, we conducted an online survey. More than half of all riders (52%) reported having experienced at least one accident or near miss in the 12 months prior to the survey. Whilst our findings confirm the factors identified overseas, we also identified issues around rider misunderstanding of road rules and driver misunderstanding of rider hand signals. Of particular concern, we also found reports of potentially dangerous rider-directed road rage. We identify several areas for potential safety intervention including (1) identifying equestrians as vulnerable road users and horses as sentient decision-making vehicles; (2) harmonising laws regarding passing horses; (3) mandating personal protective equipment; (4) improving road signage; (5) comprehensive data collection; (6) developing mutual understanding amongst road-users; (7) safer road design and alternative riding spaces; and (8) increasing investment

  8. Factors affecting the integrity of PWR pressure vessels during overcooling accidents

    SciTech Connect

    Cheverton, R.D.

    1983-01-01

    The reactor pressure vessel in a pressurized water reactor is normally subjected to temperatures and pressures that preclude propagation of sharp, crack-like defects that might exist in the wall of the vessel. However, if certain postulated accidents, referred to as overcooling accidents, were to occur, the pressure vessel could be subjected to severe thermal shock while the pressure is substantial. As a result, vessels containing high concentrations of copper and nickel, which enhance radiation embrittlement, may possess a potential for extensive propagation of preexistent inner-surface flaws prior to the vessel's normal end of life. A fracture-mechanics analysis for a typical postulated accident and also related thermal-shock experiments indicate that very shallow surface flaws that extend through the cladding into the base material could propagate. This is of particular concern because shallow flaws appear to be the most probable and presumably are the most difficult to detect.

  9. Trends in state-level freight accident rates: An enhancement of risk factor development for RADTRAN

    SciTech Connect

    Saricks, C.; Kvitek, T.

    1991-01-01

    Under the Nuclear Waste Policy Act, the Department of Energy's Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM) is concerned with understanding and managing risk as it applies to the shipment of spent commercial nuclear reactor fuel. Understanding risk in relation to mode and geography may provide opportunities to minimize radiological and non-radiological risks of transportation. To enhance such an understanding, a set of state-or waterway-specific accident, fatality, and injury rates (expressed as rates per shipment kilometer) by transportation mode and highway administrative class was developed, using publicly-available data bases. Adjustments made to accommodate miscoded or incomplete information in accident data are described, as well as the procedures for estimating state-level flow data. Results indicate that the shipping conditions under which spent fuel is likely to be transported should be less subject to accidents than the average'' shipment within mode. 10 refs., 3 tabs.

  10. Partial least square method for modelling ergonomic risks factors on express bus accidents in the east coast of peninsular west Malaysia

    SciTech Connect

    Hashim, Yusof bin; Taha, Zahari bin

    2015-02-03

    Public, stake holders and authorities in Malaysian government show great concern towards high numbers of passenger’s injuries and passengers fatalities in express bus accident. This paper studies the underlying factors involved in determining ergonomics risk factors towards human error as the reasons in express bus accidents in order to develop an integrated analytical framework. Reliable information about drivers towards bus accident should lead to the design of strategies intended to make the public feel safe in public transport services. In addition there is an analysis of ergonomics risk factors to determine highly ergonomic risk factors which led to accidents. The research was performed in east coast of peninsular Malaysia using variance-based structural equation modeling namely the Partial Least Squares (PLS) regression techniques. A questionnaire survey was carried out at random among 65 express bus drivers operating from the city of Kuantan in Pahang and among 49 express bus drivers operating from the city of Kuala Terengganu in Terengganu to all towns in the east coast of peninsular west Malaysia. The ergonomic risks factors questionnaire is based on demographic information, occupational information, organizational safety climate, ergonomic workplace, physiological factors, stress at workplace, physical fatigue and near miss accidents. The correlation and significant values between latent constructs (near miss accident) were analyzed using SEM SmartPLS, 3M. The finding shows that the correlated ergonomic risks factors (occupational information, t=2.04, stress at workplace, t = 2.81, physiological factor, t=2.08) are significant to physical fatigue and as the mediator to near miss accident at t = 2.14 at p<0.05and T-statistics, t>1.96. The results shows that the effects of physical fatigue due to ergonomic risks factors influence the human error as the reasons in express bus accidents.

  11. Partial least square method for modelling ergonomic risks factors on express bus accidents in the east coast of peninsular west Malaysia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hashim, Yusof bin; Taha, Zahari bin

    2015-02-01

    Public, stake holders and authorities in Malaysian government show great concern towards high numbers of passenger's injuries and passengers fatalities in express bus accident. This paper studies the underlying factors involved in determining ergonomics risk factors towards human error as the reasons in express bus accidents in order to develop an integrated analytical framework. Reliable information about drivers towards bus accident should lead to the design of strategies intended to make the public feel safe in public transport services. In addition there is an analysis of ergonomics risk factors to determine highly ergonomic risk factors which led to accidents. The research was performed in east coast of peninsular Malaysia using variance-based structural equation modeling namely the Partial Least Squares (PLS) regression techniques. A questionnaire survey was carried out at random among 65 express bus drivers operating from the city of Kuantan in Pahang and among 49 express bus drivers operating from the city of Kuala Terengganu in Terengganu to all towns in the east coast of peninsular west Malaysia. The ergonomic risks factors questionnaire is based on demographic information, occupational information, organizational safety climate, ergonomic workplace, physiological factors, stress at workplace, physical fatigue and near miss accidents. The correlation and significant values between latent constructs (near miss accident) were analyzed using SEM SmartPLS, 3M. The finding shows that the correlated ergonomic risks factors (occupational information, t=2.04, stress at workplace, t = 2.81, physiological factor, t=2.08) are significant to physical fatigue and as the mediator to near miss accident at t = 2.14 at p<0.05and T-statistics, t>1.96. The results shows that the effects of physical fatigue due to ergonomic risks factors influence the human error as the reasons in express bus accidents.

  12. New Technologies for Weather Accident Prevention

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stough, H. Paul, III; Watson, James F., Jr.; Daniels, Taumi S.; Martzaklis, Konstantinos S.; Jarrell, Michael A.; Bogue, Rodney K.

    2005-01-01

    Weather is a causal factor in thirty percent of all aviation accidents. Many of these accidents are due to a lack of weather situation awareness by pilots in flight. Improving the strategic and tactical weather information available and its presentation to pilots in flight can enhance weather situation awareness and enable avoidance of adverse conditions. This paper presents technologies for airborne detection, dissemination and display of weather information developed by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) in partnership with the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), industry and the research community. These technologies, currently in the initial stages of implementation by industry, will provide more precise and timely knowledge of the weather and enable pilots in flight to make decisions that result in safer and more efficient operations.

  13. Preschoolers' Understanding of Temporal and Causal Relations.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sharp, Kay Colby

    1982-01-01

    Two experiments investigated psychological factors determining preschoolers' success or failure on a sequence-completion task involving temporal and causal ordering of events. Overall findings demonstrate that while preschoolers do understand temporal/causal relationships, their abilities are dependent on process variables demanded by the task…

  14. A method for modeling and analysis of directed weighted accident causation network (DWACN)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, Jin; Xu, Weixiang; Guo, Xin; Ding, Jing

    2015-11-01

    Using complex network theory to analyze accidents is effective to understand the causes of accidents in complex systems. In this paper, a novel method is proposed to establish directed weighted accident causation network (DWACN) for the Rail Accident Investigation Branch (RAIB) in the UK, which is based on complex network and using event chains of accidents. DWACN is composed of 109 nodes which denote causal factors and 260 directed weighted edges which represent complex interrelationships among factors. The statistical properties of directed weighted complex network are applied to reveal the critical factors, the key event chains and the important classes in DWACN. Analysis results demonstrate that DWACN has characteristics of small-world networks with short average path length and high weighted clustering coefficient, and display the properties of scale-free networks captured by that the cumulative degree distribution follows an exponential function. This modeling and analysis method can assist us to discover the latent rules of accidents and feature of faults propagation to reduce accidents. This paper is further development on the research of accident analysis methods using complex network.

  15. Time dependence of the {sup 137}Cs resuspension factor on the Romanian territory after the Chernobyl accident

    SciTech Connect

    Mihaila, B.; Cuculeanu, V.

    1994-08-01

    On the basis of the radioactivity levels in aerosol and atmospheric deposition samples due to the Chernobyl accident, the resuspension factor of {sup 137}Cs as a four-parameter function has been inferred. The standard procedure to derive the dependence of resuspension on time assumes that the initial deposit is instantaneous. A simple method assuming a constant deposition rate over a fixed period has been proposed. Also, based on existing experimental data, an attempt was made to consider a realistic time dependence of the deposition rate to cope with the particular case of the Chernobyl accident. The differences between the two models are outlined. The Chernobyl direct deposit has been assumed to be the deposit measured between 30 April and 30 June 1986. The calculated values of the resuspension factor are consistent with the IAEA`s recommended model and depend on the rainfall that occurred in June 1986 and the site-specific disturbance conditions during the first 100 d following 1 July 1986 and only on artificial disturbance by humans and vehicles after that. 16 refs., 5 figs., 3 tabs.

  16. Inroads into Equestrian Safety: Rider-Reported Factors Contributing to Horse-Related Accidents and Near Misses on Australian Roads.

    PubMed

    Thompson, Kirrilly; Matthews, Chelsea

    2015-01-01

    Horse riding and horse-related interactions are inherently dangerous. When they occur on public roads, the risk profile of equestrian activities is complicated by interactions with other road users. Research has identified speed, proximity, visibility, conspicuity and mutual misunderstanding as factors contributing to accidents and near misses. However, little is known about their significance or incidence in Australia. To explore road safety issues amongst Australian equestrians, we conducted an online survey. More than half of all riders (52%) reported having experienced at least one accident or near miss in the 12 months prior to the survey. Whilst our findings confirm the factors identified overseas, we also identified issues around rider misunderstanding of road rules and driver misunderstanding of rider hand signals. Of particular concern, we also found reports of potentially dangerous rider-directed road rage. We identify several areas for potential safety intervention including (1) identifying equestrians as vulnerable road users and horses as sentient decision-making vehicles (2) harmonising laws regarding passing horses, (3) mandating personal protective equipment, (4) improving road signage, (5) comprehensive data collection, (6) developing mutual understanding amongst road-users, (7) safer road design and alternative riding spaces; and (8) increasing investment in horse-related safety initiatives. PMID:26479376

  17. What are the reasons for high turnover in nursing? A discussion of presumed causal factors and remedies.

    PubMed

    Currie, Elizabeth J; Carr Hill, Roy A

    2012-09-01

    Problems with high turnover in nursing and of maintaining adequate numbers of nurses to supply clinical staffing requirements have a long history and have therefore attracted a commensurate literature with time. An overview and discussion of the situation internationally, with an emphasis on Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries and the UK, finds that job satisfaction is often a consistent underlying determinant interacting with workplace factors and personal reasons in complex ways. Effective and adaptive retention strategies are required to meet and mitigate the problem as reasons for it may vary over time. Solutions must be flexible and targeted to meet the individual circumstances identified. PMID:22321821

  18. Assessment of the Effects of Rehabilitation After Cerebrovascular Accident in Patients with Diabetes Mellitus and Hypertension as Risk Factors

    PubMed Central

    Tanovic, Edina; Selimovic, Senad; Tanovic, Haris

    2014-01-01

    ABSTRACT Aim: The aim of this study is to evaluate the results of rehabilitation, to determine the prevalence of major risk factors in cerebrovascular accident and their consequences, as well as to propose measures and procedures that will affect the better rehabilitation. Methods: The survey analyzed: age, sex, duration of rehabilitation, activities in daily life through the Barthel index at admission and at discharge, presence of risk factors HTA and DM. The study included a total of 116 patients, the majority of patients are older than 61 years. We had 49% of male patients and 51% of female patients and they spent 31-40 days at the rehabilitation. Results: The most common risk factor is HTA (83%) and diabetes (33%). Most of the patients at admission had a BI from 0 to 4 (32.7%), and at discharge BI in the range 17-20 (36.2%). Statistical analysis shows that there is a statistically significant correlation between the BI at admission, BI at discharge and risk factors of HTA and diabetes mellitus. Conclusions: the rehabilitation results in most patients is good results of rehabilitation. The most important risk factors in patients are HTA, DM and directly affect on results of rehabilitation. For the better results we should have energetic fight against risk factors for HTA and DM through primary and secondary prevention and patient education about early detection and treatment of these risk factors. PMID:24937938

  19. Factors attributed to fatal occupational accidents in a period of 5 years preceding the Athens 2004 Olympic Games.

    PubMed

    Katsakiori, Panagiota; Manatakis, Emmanuel; Goutsos, Stavros; Athanassiou, George

    2008-01-01

    This study aimed to determine the factors attributed to occupational fatalities occurring in the region of East Attica, Greece, in all industry types over a 5-year period preceding the 2004 Olympic Games. Questionnaires, based on the attribution theory, were completed by labor inspectors and were analyzed with principal component analysis. The results showed that most accidents occurred in the construction industry due to large-scale civil works, which took place in East Attica prior to the 2004 Olympic Games. Poor work practices arising from lack of orientation and job training, performance pressure and workers' inexperience associated with knowledge- and skill-based errors were revealed by the questionnaire as the most common factors attributed to occupational fatalities. Our findings help to identify areas where prevention efforts should be directed to effectively manage safety in Greece. PMID:18954538

  20. Multisource causal data mining

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Woodley, Robert; Gosnell, Michael; Shallenberger, Kevin

    2012-06-01

    Analysts are faced with mountains of data, and finding that relevant piece of information is the proverbial needle in a haystack, only with dozens of haystacks. Analysis tools that facilitate identifying causal relationships across multiple data sets are sorely needed. 21st Century Systems, Inc. (21CSi) has initiated research called Causal-View, a causal datamining visualization tool, to address this challenge. Causal-View is built on an agent-enabled framework. Much of the processing that Causal-View will do is in the background. When a user requests information, Data Extraction Agents launch to gather information. This initial search is a raw, Monte Carlo type search designed to gather everything available that may have relevance to an individual, location, associations, and more. This data is then processed by Data- Mining Agents. The Data-Mining Agents are driven by user supplied feature parameters. If the analyst is looking to see if the individual frequents a known haven for insurgents he may request information on his last known locations. Or, if the analyst is trying to see if there is a pattern in the individual's contacts, the mining agent can be instructed with the type and relevance of the information fields to look at. The same data is extracted from the database, but the Data Mining Agents customize the feature set to determine causal relationships the user is interested in. At this point, a Hypothesis Generation and Data Reasoning Agents take over to form conditional hypotheses about the data and pare the data, respectively. The newly formed information is then published to the agent communication backbone of Causal- View to be displayed. Causal-View provides causal analysis tools to fill the gaps in the causal chain. We present here the Causal-View concept, the initial research into data mining tools that assist in forming the causal relationships, and our initial findings.

  1. Risk-Based Causal Modeling of Airborne Loss of Separation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Geuther, Steven C.; Shih, Ann T.

    2015-01-01

    Maintaining safe separation between aircraft remains one of the key aviation challenges as the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) emerges. The goals of the NextGen are to increase capacity and reduce flight delays to meet the aviation demand growth through the 2025 time frame while maintaining safety and efficiency. The envisioned NextGen is expected to enable high air traffic density, diverse fleet operations in the airspace, and a decrease in separation distance. All of these factors contribute to the potential for Loss of Separation (LOS) between aircraft. LOS is a precursor to a potential mid-air collision (MAC). The NASA Airspace Operations and Safety Program (AOSP) is committed to developing aircraft separation assurance concepts and technologies to mitigate LOS instances, therefore, preventing MAC. This paper focuses on the analysis of causal and contributing factors of LOS accidents and incidents leading to MAC occurrences. Mid-air collisions among large commercial aircraft are rare in the past decade, therefore, the LOS instances in this study are for general aviation using visual flight rules in the years 2000-2010. The study includes the investigation of causal paths leading to LOS, and the development of the Airborne Loss of Separation Analysis Model (ALOSAM) using Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN) to capture the multi-dependent relations of causal factors. The ALOSAM is currently a qualitative model, although further development could lead to a quantitative model. ALOSAM could then be used to perform impact analysis of concepts and technologies in the AOSP portfolio on the reduction of LOS risk.

  2. Determining Stochasticity and Causality of Vegetation Dynamics in the Southwestern Amazon: Non-linear Time Series Analysis and Dynamic Factor Analysis of EVI2 Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klarenberg, G.

    2015-12-01

    Infrastructure projects such as road paving have proven to bring a variety of (mainly) socio-economic advantages to countries and populations. However, many studies have also highlighted the negative socio-economic and biophysical effects that these developments have at local, regional and even larger scales. The "MAP" area (Madre de Dios in Peru, Acre in Brazil, and Pando in Bolivia) is a biodiversity hotspot in the southwestern Amazon where sections of South America's Inter-Oceanic Highway were paved between 2006 and 2010. We are interested in vegetation dynamics in the area since it plays an important role in ecosystem functions and ecosystem services in socio-ecological systems: it provides information on productivity and structure of the forest. In preparation of more complex and mechanistic simulation of vegetation, non-linear time series analysis and Dynamic Factor Analysis (DFA) was conducted on Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) time series - which is a remote sensing product and provides information on vegetation dynamics as it detects chlorophyll (productivity) and structural change. Time series of 30 years for EVI2 (from MODIS and AVHRR) were obtained for 100 communities in the area. Through specific time series cluster analysis of the vegetation data, communities were clustered to facilitate data analysis and pattern recognition. The clustering is spatially consistent, and appears to be driven by median road paving progress - which is different for each cluster. Non-linear time series analysis (multivariate singular spectrum analysis, MSSA) separates common signals (or low-dimensional attractors) across clusters. Despite the presence of this deterministic structure though, time series behavior is mostly stochastic. Granger causality analysis between EVI2 and possible response variables indicates which variables (and with what lags) are to be included in DFA, resulting in unique Dynamic Factor Models for each cluster.

  3. The influence of biotic and abiotic factors on (137)Cs accumulation in higher fungi after the accident at Chernobyl NPP.

    PubMed

    Zarubina, N

    2016-09-01

    Levels of soil contamination with (137)Cs, the belonging of fungi to a certain ecological group, the localization depth of the main part of mycelium in soil are the primary factors influencing the value of (137)Cs specific activity in higher fungi after the accident at Chernobyl NPP. It has been found that the value of (137)Cs specific activity in fungi of one species could vary by more than 10 times during a vegetation period. A correlation between the changes of (137)Cs content in fungi during the vegetation period and the amount of precipitates during various periods preceding the collection of samples has not been determined. An assumption has been proposed stating dependence between peculiarities of mycelium growth during the vegetation period and the changes of (137)Cs specific activity in fungi. PMID:26690320

  4. Causal Supports for Early Word Learning

    PubMed Central

    Booth, Amy E.

    2009-01-01

    What factors determine whether a young child will learn a new word? Although there are surely numerous contributors, the current investigation highlights the role of causal information. Thirty-six 3-year-old children were taught 6 new words for unfamiliar objects or animals. Items were described in terms of their causal or non-causal properties. When tested only minutes after training, no significant differences between the conditions were evident. However, when tested several days after training, children performed better on words trained in the causal condition. These results demonstrate that the well-documented effect of causal information on learning and categorization extends to word learning in young children. PMID:19630905

  5. Minor illness and injury: factors influencing attendance at a paediatric accident and emergency department

    PubMed Central

    Hendry, S; Beattie, T; Heaney, D

    2005-01-01

    Aims: To gather information on children with minor illness or injury presenting to a paediatric accident and emergency (A&E) department and the decision making process leading to their attendance. Methods: Prospective questionnaire based survey of 465 children selected by systematic sampling from A&E attenders allocated to the lowest triage category. Results: The study population was statistically representative of the total population of A&E attenders. The lower deprivation categories were over represented. Educational attainment, childcare experience, and parental coping skills were important in relation to A&E attendance. More children attended with injury as opposed to illness. There were no significant demographic differences between those children who presented directly to A&E and those who made prior contact with a GP. Just under half the study population had made contact with a general practitioner (GP) before attending A&E. The majority of those children were directly referred to A&E at that point. GPs referred equivalent numbers of children with illness and injury. Conclusions: Parents and GPs view paediatric A&E departments as an appropriate place to seek treatment for children with minor illness or injury. PMID:15908631

  6. Comparing the Identification of Recommendations by Different Accident Investigators Using a Common Methodology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Johnson, Chris W.; Oltedal, H. A.; Holloway, C. M.

    2012-01-01

    Accident reports play a key role in the safety of complex systems. These reports present the recommendations that are intended to help avoid any recurrence of past failures. However, the value of these findings depends upon the causal analysis that helps to identify the reasons why an accident occurred. Various techniques have been developed to help investigators distinguish root causes from contributory factors and contextual information. This paper presents the results from a study into the individual differences that can arise when a group of investigators independently apply the same technique to identify the causes of an accident. This work is important if we are to increase the consistency and coherence of investigations following major accidents.

  7. Causal Learning Across Domains

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schulz, Laura E.; Gopnik, Alison

    2004-01-01

    Five studies investigated (a) children's ability to use the dependent and independent probabilities of events to make causal inferences and (b) the interaction between such inferences and domain-specific knowledge. In Experiment 1, preschoolers used patterns of dependence and independence to make accurate causal inferences in the domains of…

  8. Causality in Classical Electrodynamics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Savage, Craig

    2012-01-01

    Causality in electrodynamics is a subject of some confusion, especially regarding the application of Faraday's law and the Ampere-Maxwell law. This has led to the suggestion that we should not teach students that electric and magnetic fields can cause each other, but rather focus on charges and currents as the causal agents. In this paper I argue…

  9. Causal Analysis After Haavelmo

    PubMed Central

    Heckman, James; Pinto, Rodrigo

    2014-01-01

    Haavelmo's seminal 1943 and 1944 papers are the first rigorous treatment of causality. In them, he distinguished the definition of causal parameters from their identification. He showed that causal parameters are defined using hypothetical models that assign variation to some of the inputs determining outcomes while holding all other inputs fixed. He thus formalized and made operational Marshall's (1890) ceteris paribus analysis. We embed Haavelmo's framework into the recursive framework of Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) used in one influential recent approach to causality (Pearl, 2000) and in the related literature on Bayesian nets (Lauritzen, 1996). We compare the simplicity of an analysis of causality based on Haavelmo's methodology with the complex and nonintuitive approach used in the causal literature of DAGs—the “do-calculus” of Pearl (2009). We discuss the severe limitations of DAGs and in particular of the do-calculus of Pearl in securing identification of economic models. We extend our framework to consider models for simultaneous causality, a central contribution of Haavelmo. In general cases, DAGs cannot be used to analyze models for simultaneous causality, but Haavelmo's approach naturally generalizes to cover them. PMID:25729123

  10. Repeated Causal Decision Making

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hagmayer, York; Meder, Bjorn

    2013-01-01

    Many of our decisions refer to actions that have a causal impact on the external environment. Such actions may not only allow for the mere learning of expected values or utilities but also for acquiring knowledge about the causal structure of our world. We used a repeated decision-making paradigm to examine what kind of knowledge people acquire in…

  11. Witnessing causal nonseparability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Araújo, Mateus; Branciard, Cyril; Costa, Fabio; Feix, Adrien; Giarmatzi, Christina; Brukner, Časlav

    2015-10-01

    Our common understanding of the physical world deeply relies on the notion that events are ordered with respect to some time parameter, with past events serving as causes for future ones. Nonetheless, it was recently found that it is possible to formulate quantum mechanics without any reference to a global time or causal structure. The resulting framework includes new kinds of quantum resources that allow performing tasks—in particular, the violation of causal inequalities—which are impossible for events ordered according to a global causal order. However, no physical implementation of such resources is known. Here we show that a recently demonstrated resource for quantum computation—the quantum switch—is a genuine example of ‘indefinite causal order’. We do this by introducing a new tool—the causal witness—which can detect the causal nonseparability of any quantum resource that is incompatible with a definite causal order. We show however that the quantum switch does not violate any causal inequality.

  12. Agency, time, and causality

    PubMed Central

    Widlok, Thomas

    2014-01-01

    Cognitive Scientists interested in causal cognition increasingly search for evidence from non-Western Educational Industrial Rich Democratic people but find only very few cross-cultural studies that specifically target causal cognition. This article suggests how information about causality can be retrieved from ethnographic monographs, specifically from ethnographies that discuss agency and concepts of time. Many apparent cultural differences with regard to causal cognition dissolve when cultural extensions of agency and personhood to non-humans are taken into account. At the same time considerable variability remains when we include notions of time, linearity and sequence. The article focuses on ethnographic case studies from Africa but provides a more general perspective on the role of ethnography in research on the diversity and universality of causal cognition. PMID:25414683

  13. Anatomy of an Accident.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mobley, Michael

    1984-01-01

    The findings of industrial safety engineers in the areas of accident causation and prevention are wholly applicable to adventure programs. Adventure education instructors can use safety engineering concepts to assess the risk in a particular activity, understand factors that cause accidents, and intervene to minimize injuries and damages if…

  14. Causal Networks or Causal Islands? The Representation of Mechanisms and the Transitivity of Causal Judgment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnson, Samuel G. B.; Ahn, Woo-kyoung

    2015-01-01

    Knowledge of mechanisms is critical for causal reasoning. We contrasted two possible organizations of causal knowledge--an interconnected causal "network," where events are causally connected without any boundaries delineating discrete mechanisms; or a set of disparate mechanisms--causal "islands"--such that events in different…

  15. Causality and headache triggers

    PubMed Central

    Turner, Dana P.; Smitherman, Todd A.; Martin, Vincent T.; Penzien, Donald B.; Houle, Timothy T.

    2013-01-01

    Objective The objective of this study was to explore the conditions necessary to assign causal status to headache triggers. Background The term “headache trigger” is commonly used to label any stimulus that is assumed to cause headaches. However, the assumptions required for determining if a given stimulus in fact has a causal-type relationship in eliciting headaches have not been explicated. Methods A synthesis and application of Rubin’s Causal Model is applied to the context of headache causes. From this application the conditions necessary to infer that one event (trigger) causes another (headache) are outlined using basic assumptions and examples from relevant literature. Results Although many conditions must be satisfied for a causal attribution, three basic assumptions are identified for determining causality in headache triggers: 1) constancy of the sufferer; 2) constancy of the trigger effect; and 3) constancy of the trigger presentation. A valid evaluation of a potential trigger’s effect can only be undertaken once these three basic assumptions are satisfied during formal or informal studies of headache triggers. Conclusions Evaluating these assumptions is extremely difficult or infeasible in clinical practice, and satisfying them during natural experimentation is unlikely. Researchers, practitioners, and headache sufferers are encouraged to avoid natural experimentation to determine the causal effects of headache triggers. Instead, formal experimental designs or retrospective diary studies using advanced statistical modeling techniques provide the best approaches to satisfy the required assumptions and inform causal statements about headache triggers. PMID:23534872

  16. Determination of Knowledge, Attitudes and Behaviors Regarding Factors Causing Home Accidents and Prevention in Mothers with a Child Aged 0-5 Years

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Akturk, Ümmühan; Erci, Behice

    2016-01-01

    Objective: In this study, it was aimed to determine knowledge, "attitudes" and "behaviors" in mothers with a child aged 0-5 years regarding factors causing "home accidents" and prevention. Method: The target population of the study consisted of mothers with a child aged 0-5 years who were admitted to pediatrics ward…

  17. Warp drive and causality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Everett, Allen E.

    1996-06-01

    Alcubierre recently exhibited a spacetime which, within the framework of general relativity, allows travel at superluminal speeds if matter with a negative energy density can exist, and conjectured that it should be possible to use similar techniques to construct a theory containing closed causal loops and, thus, travel backwards in time. We verify this conjecture by exhibiting a simple modification of Alcubierre's model, requiring no additional assumptions, in which causal loops are possible. We also note that this mechanism for generating causal loops differs in essential ways from that discovered by Gott involving cosmic strings.

  18. Factors Associated with Fatal Occupational Accidents among Mexican Workers: A National Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Gonzalez-Delgado, Mery; Gómez-Dantés, Héctor; Fernández-Niño, Julián Alfredo; Robles, Eduardo; Borja, Víctor H.; Aguilar, Miriam

    2015-01-01

    Objective To identify the factors associated with fatal occupational injuries in Mexico in 2012 among workers affiliated with the Mexican Social Security Institute. Methods Analysis of secondary data using information from the National Occupational Risk Information System, with the consequence of the occupational injury (fatal versus non-fatal) as the response variable. The analysis included 406,222 non-fatal and 1,140 fatal injuries from 2012. The factors associated with the lethality of the injury were identified using a logistic regression model with the Firth approach. Results Being male (OR=5.86; CI95%: 4.22-8.14), age (OR=1.04; CI95%: 1.03-1.06), employed in the position for 1 to 10 years (versus less than 1 year) (OR=1.37; CI95%: 1.15-1.63), working as a facilities or machine operator or assembler (OR: 3.28; CI95%: 2.12- 5.07) and being a worker without qualifications (OR=1.96; CI95%: 1.18-3.24) (versus an office worker) were associated with fatality in the event of an injury. Additionally, companies classified as maximum risk (OR=1.90; CI 95%: 1.38-2.62), workplace conditions (OR=7.15; CI95%: 3.63-14.10) and factors related to the work environment (OR=9.18; CI95%:4.36-19.33) were identified as risk factors for fatality in the event of an occupational injury. Conclusions Fatality in the event of an occupational injury is associated with factors related to sociodemographics (age, sex and occupation), the work environment and workplace conditions. Worker protection policies should be created for groups with a higher risk of fatal occupational injuries in Mexico. PMID:25790063

  19. Transfer factor of 131I from the fallout to human thyroid dose equivalent after the Chernobyl accident.

    PubMed

    Beno, M; Mikulecký, M; Hrabina, J

    1992-01-01

    A similar pattern of variation with time in observed maxima of daily dose equivalent rates in human thyroids (TD - microSv.d-1) and of daily fallout radioactivities (FR - kBq.m-2) has been found after the Chernobyl accident. An estimate of the time-lag between the maxima in TD lines and the preceding FR peaks was made of about seven days for adult and nine days for juveniles. Applying this time-lag it was possible to estimate transfer factors from the fallout to thyroid dose equivalent: the highest estimated values were 221 microSv/kBq.m-2 for adult and 641 microSv/kBq.m-2 for juvenile thyroids. These values differ from those published by UNSCEAR (United Nations 1988), which have been calculated for various regions of Czechoslovakia, from ingestion and inhalation intake estimates. A broad variation of transfer factor values could be expected to result from such transfer calculations using ingestion and inhalation estimates. The findings also support the concept of a need for prolonged iodine prophylaxy after emissions of radioiodine into the environment. PMID:1609058

  20. [Psychogenesis of accidents].

    PubMed

    Giannattasio, E; Nencini, R; Nicolosi, N

    1988-01-01

    After having carried out a historical review of industrial psychology with specific attention to the evolution of the concept of causality in accidents, the Authors formulate their work hypothesis from that research which take into highest consideration the executives' attitudes in the genesis of the accidents. As dogmatism appears to be one of the most negative of executives' attitudes, the Authors administered Rockeach's Scale to 130 intermediate executives from 6 industries in Latium and observed the frequency index for accidents and the morbidity index (absenteeism) of the 2149 workhand. The Authors assumed that to high degree of dogmatism on the executives' side should correspond o a higher level of accidents and absenteeism among the staff. The data processing revealed that, due to the type of machinery employed, three of the industries examined should be considered as High Risk Industrie (HRI), while the remaining three could be considered as Low Risk Industries (LRI): in fact, due to the different working conditions, a significant lower number of accidents occurred in last the three. A statistically significant correlation between the executives' dogmatism and the number of accidents among their workhand in the HRI has been noticed, while this has not been observed in the LRI. This confirms, as had already been pointed out by Gemelli in 1944, that some "objective conditions" are requested so that the accident may actually take place. On the other hand the morbidity index has not shown any difference related to the different kind of industries (HRI, LRI): in both cases statistically significant correlations were obtained between the executives' dogmatism and the staff's absenteeism. absenteeism.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS) PMID:3154344

  1. Fatal occupational accidents in Danish fishing vessels 1989-2005.

    PubMed

    Laursen, Lise H; Hansen, Henrik L; Jensen, Olaf C

    2008-06-01

    The purpose of the study was to study the circumstances and incidence rates of fatal accidents in inspection obligated and non-inspection obligated Danish fishing vessels to identify areas for prevention. Information about the fatalities came from maritime authority reports, including vessel disaster reports, post mortem reports, maritime inquiries and police reports. The person- and vessel years at risk came from the Danish Directorate of Fisheries. During the period 1989-2005, 114 fatalities occurred. Sixty-one of the fatalities occurred in 36 vessel disasters mainly caused by foundering/capsizing due to stability changes in rough weather and collisions; 39 fatal occupational accidents mainly occurred on the larger inspection obligated trawlers during fishing. In the remaining 14 other fatal accidents, the main causal factors were difficult embarking/disembarking conditions by darkness in foreign ports and alcohol intoxication. In the period 1995-2005, the overall incidence rate was 10 per 10,000 fishermen per year with no down-going trend during that period. The fatal accident rates are still too high, despite the efforts to reduce the risk. Increased focus on regular and repeated safety training for all fishermen and improved safety measures are needed, especially in the underscored areas of sea disasters concerning small vessels and occupational accidents on big vessels. Better registration of time at risk for fishermen is needed to validate the effect of the safety measures. PMID:18642168

  2. [Accidents in a population of 350 adolescents and young adults: circumstances, risk factors and prediction of recurrence].

    PubMed

    Marcelli, Daniel; Ingrand, Pierre; Delamour, Magali; Ingrand, Isabelle

    2010-06-01

    Accidents among adolescents and young adults are a public health issue, and present two main characteristics: a strong association with sporting activities, and frequent recurrence. Sports accidents are generally relatively benign, but they show a marked tendency to recur Young people engaging in sporting activities do not generally exhibit psychological traits different from the general population. In contrast, the other types of accident, and particularly domestic and traffic accidents, appear to have specific features: they are often more serious, but above all they are associated with psychopathologic features, including depression, anxiety, disorders due to life events, and thrill-seeking These psychopathological features are strongly associated with recurrence. The authors describe a simple self-administered questionnaire (ECARR) designed to assess the risk of accident recurrence in this population. PMID:21513131

  3. [Soft tissue calcifications in panoramic radiography. A risk factor for cerebrovascular accidents?].

    PubMed

    Ariayi, Ayesha Shekeba; Berndt, Dorothea; Lambrecht, J Thomas

    2009-01-01

    Panoramic radiography is a basic diagnostic tool in the dental field where calcifications are seen occasionally in the lateral parts of the x-ray. The differential diagnosis are carotid artery atheromas, calcified submandibular lymphnodes and sialoliths of the submandibular gland. 4007 panoramic radiographs (100%) from patients >40 years were scanned retrospectively. Special emphasis was given to the carotid artery territory (CAT). 225 soft tissue calcifications were found (5.6%). 144 patients had calcifications in the CAT (3.6%), 73 showed calcified submandibular lymphnodes (1.8%), and 8 (0.2%) sialoliths. The female to male ratio was 54.7%:45.3%. Pneumatic diseases were beside hypertension and smoking a risk factor for CAT calcification. Carotid artery atheromas are the main risk for cerebrovascular insults. Dentists can help to detect patients at risk for stroke. Their patients can be referred for further diagnostics (ultrasound). PMID:19954131

  4. Temporal uncertainty analysis of human errors based on interrelationships among multiple factors: a case of Minuteman III missile accident.

    PubMed

    Rong, Hao; Tian, Jin; Zhao, Tingdi

    2016-01-01

    In traditional approaches of human reliability assessment (HRA), the definition of the error producing conditions (EPCs) and the supporting guidance are such that some of the conditions (especially organizational or managerial conditions) can hardly be included, and thus the analysis is burdened with incomprehensiveness without reflecting the temporal trend of human reliability. A method based on system dynamics (SD), which highlights interrelationships among technical and organizational aspects that may contribute to human errors, is presented to facilitate quantitatively estimating the human error probability (HEP) and its related variables changing over time in a long period. Taking the Minuteman III missile accident in 2008 as a case, the proposed HRA method is applied to assess HEP during missile operations over 50 years by analyzing the interactions among the variables involved in human-related risks; also the critical factors are determined in terms of impact that the variables have on risks in different time periods. It is indicated that both technical and organizational aspects should be focused on to minimize human errors in a long run. PMID:26360211

  5. The Fukushima radiation accident: consequences for radiation accident medical management.

    PubMed

    Meineke, Viktor; Dörr, Harald

    2012-08-01

    The March 2011 radiation accident in Fukushima, Japan, is a textbook example of a radiation accident of global significance. In view of the global dimensions of the accident, it is important to consider the lessons learned. In this context, emphasis must be placed on consequences for planning appropriate medical management for radiation accidents including, for example, estimates of necessary human and material resources. The specific characteristics of the radiation accident in Fukushima are thematically divided into five groups: the exceptional environmental influences on the Fukushima radiation accident, particular circumstances of the accident, differences in risk perception, changed psychosocial factors in the age of the Internet and globalization, and the ignorance of the effects of ionizing radiation both among the general public and health care professionals. Conclusions like the need for reviewing international communication, interfacing, and interface definitions will be drawn from the Fukushima radiation accident. PMID:22951483

  6. Causal Mediation Analyses for Randomized Trials.

    PubMed

    Lynch, Kevin G; Cary, Mark; Gallop, Robert; Ten Have, Thomas R

    2008-01-01

    In the context of randomized intervention trials, we describe causal methods for analyzing how post-randomization factors constitute the process through which randomized baseline interventions act on outcomes. Traditionally, such mediation analyses have been undertaken with great caution, because they assume that the mediating factor is also randomly assigned to individuals in addition to the randomized baseline intervention (i.e., sequential ignorability). Because the mediating factors are typically not randomized, such analyses are unprotected from unmeasured confounders that may lead to biased inference. We review several causal approaches that attempt to reduce such bias without assuming that the mediating factor is randomized. However, these causal approaches require certain interaction assumptions that may be assessed if there is enough treatment heterogeneity with respect to the mediator. We describe available estimation procedures in the context of several examples from the literature and provide resources for software code. PMID:19484136

  7. Illness causal beliefs in Turkish immigrants

    PubMed Central

    Minas, Harry; Klimidis, Steven; Tuncer, Can

    2007-01-01

    Background People hold a wide variety of beliefs concerning the causes of illness. Such beliefs vary across cultures and, among immigrants, may be influenced by many factors, including level of acculturation, gender, level of education, and experience of illness and treatment. This study examines illness causal beliefs in Turkish-immigrants in Australia. Methods Causal beliefs about somatic and mental illness were examined in a sample of 444 members of the Turkish population of Melbourne. The socio-demographic characteristics of the sample were broadly similar to those of the Melbourne Turkish community. Five issues were examined: the structure of causal beliefs; the relative frequency of natural, supernatural and metaphysical beliefs; ascription of somatic, mental, or both somatic and mental conditions to the various causes; the correlations of belief types with socio-demographic, modernizing and acculturation variables; and the relationship between causal beliefs and current illness. Results Principal components analysis revealed two broad factors, accounting for 58 percent of the variation in scores on illness belief scales, distinctly interpretable as natural and supernatural beliefs. Second, beliefs in natural causes were more frequent than beliefs in supernatural causes. Third, some causal beliefs were commonly linked to both somatic and mental conditions while others were regarded as more specific to either somatic or mental disorders. Last, there was a range of correlations between endorsement of belief types and factors defining heterogeneity within the community, including with demographic factors, indicators of modernizing and acculturative processes, and the current presence of illness. Conclusion Results supported the classification of causal beliefs proposed by Murdock, Wilson & Frederick, with a division into natural and supernatural causes. While belief in natural causes is more common, belief in supernatural causes persists despite modernizing and

  8. Causality discovery technology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, M.; Ertl, T.; Jirotka, M.; Trefethen, A.; Schmidt, A.; Coecke, B.; Bañares-Alcántara, R.

    2012-11-01

    Causality is the fabric of our dynamic world. We all make frequent attempts to reason causation relationships of everyday events (e.g., what was the cause of my headache, or what has upset Alice?). We attempt to manage causality all the time through planning and scheduling. The greatest scientific discoveries are usually about causality (e.g., Newton found the cause for an apple to fall, and Darwin discovered natural selection). Meanwhile, we continue to seek a comprehensive understanding about the causes of numerous complex phenomena, such as social divisions, economic crisis, global warming, home-grown terrorism, etc. Humans analyse and reason causality based on observation, experimentation and acquired a priori knowledge. Today's technologies enable us to make observations and carry out experiments in an unprecedented scale that has created data mountains everywhere. Whereas there are exciting opportunities to discover new causation relationships, there are also unparalleled challenges to benefit from such data mountains. In this article, we present a case for developing a new piece of ICT, called Causality Discovery Technology. We reason about the necessity, feasibility and potential impact of such a technology.

  9. Causal conditionals and counterfactuals

    PubMed Central

    Frosch, Caren A.; Byrne, Ruth M.J.

    2012-01-01

    Causal counterfactuals e.g., ‘if the ignition key had been turned then the car would have started’ and causal conditionals e.g., ‘if the ignition key was turned then the car started’ are understood by thinking about multiple possibilities of different sorts, as shown in six experiments using converging evidence from three different types of measures. Experiments 1a and 1b showed that conditionals that comprise enabling causes, e.g., ‘if the ignition key was turned then the car started’ primed people to read quickly conjunctions referring to the possibility of the enabler occurring without the outcome, e.g., ‘the ignition key was turned and the car did not start’. Experiments 2a and 2b showed that people paraphrased causal conditionals by using causal or temporal connectives (because, when), whereas they paraphrased causal counterfactuals by using subjunctive constructions (had…would have). Experiments 3a and 3b showed that people made different inferences from counterfactuals presented with enabling conditions compared to none. The implications of the results for alternative theories of conditionals are discussed. PMID:22858874

  10. How to identify the key factors that affect driver perception of accident risk. A comparison between Italian and Spanish driver behavior.

    PubMed

    de Oña, Juan; de Oña, Rocio; Eboli, Laura; Forciniti, Carmen; Mazzulla, Gabriella

    2014-12-01

    Road crashes can be caused by different factors, including infrastructure, vehicles, and human variables. Many research studies have focused solely on identifying the key factors that cause road crashes. From these studies, it emerged that human factors have the most relevant impact on accident severity. More specifically, accident severity depends on several factors related directly to the driver, i.e., driving experience, driver's socio-economic characteristics, and driving behavior and attitudes. In this paper, we investigate driver behaviors and attitudes while driving and specifically focus on different methods for identifying the factors that most affect the driver's perception of accident risk. To this end, we designed and conducted a survey in two different European contexts: the city of Cosenza, which is located in the south of Italy, and the city of Granada, which is located in the south of Spain. Samples of drivers were contacted for their opinions on certain aspects of driving rules and attitudes while driving, and different types of questions were addressed to the drivers to assess their judgments of these aspects. Consequently, different methods of data analysis were applied to determine the aspects that heavily influence driver perception of accident risk. An experiment based on the stated preferences (SP) was carried out with the drivers, and the SP data were analyzed using an ordered probit (OP) model. Interesting findings emerged from different analyses of the data and from the comparisons among the data collected in the two different territorial contexts. We found that both Italian and Spanish drivers consider driving in an altered psychophysical state and violating the overtaking rules to be the most risky behaviors. PMID:25247553

  11. Ensemble of Causal Trees

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bialas, Piotr

    2003-10-01

    We discuss the geometry of trees endowed with a causal structure using the conventional framework of equilibrium statistical mechanics. We show how this ensemble is related to popular growing network models. In particular we demonstrate that on a class of afine attachment kernels the two models are identical but they can differ substantially for other choice of weights. We show that causal trees exhibit condensation even for asymptotically linear kernels. We derive general formulae describing the degree distribution, the ancestor--descendant correlation and the probability that a randomly chosen node lives at a given geodesic distance from the root. It is shown that the Hausdorff dimension dH of the causal networks is generically infinite.

  12. Causal networks or causal islands? The representation of mechanisms and the transitivity of causal judgment

    PubMed Central

    Johnson, Samuel G. B.; Ahn, Woo-kyoung

    2014-01-01

    Knowledge of mechanisms is critical for causal reasoning. We contrasted two possible organizations of causal knowledge—an interconnected causal network, where events are causally connected without any boundaries delineating discrete mechanisms; or a set of disparate mechanisms—causal islands—such that events in different mechanisms are not thought to be related even when they belong to the same causal chain. To distinguish these possibilities, we used causal transitivity—the inference given A causes B and B causes C that A causes C. Specifically, causal chains schematized as one chunk or mechanism in semantic memory (e.g., exercising, becoming thirsty, drinking water) led to transitive causal judgments. On the other hand, chains schematized as multiple chunks (e.g., having sex, becoming pregnant, becoming nauseous) led to intransitive judgments despite strong intermediate links (Experiments 1–3). Normative accounts of causal intransitivity could not explain these intransitive judgments (Experiments 4–5). PMID:25556901

  13. The Time-Dependent Transfer Factor of Radiocesium from Soil to Game Animals in Japan after the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Accident.

    PubMed

    Tagami, Keiko; Howard, Brenda J; Uchida, Shigeo

    2016-09-01

    Since the Fukushima Dai-ichi accident, monitoring of tissues from hunted game animals ensures compliance with the standard food limits for radionuclides in Japan. We quantified the transfer of (137)Cs from contaminated land to game animals using the Aggregated transfer factor (Tag = activity concentration in meat [Bq kg(-1) fw]/amount in soil [Bq m(-2)]) of (137)Cs for Asian black bear, wild boar, sika deer, green pheasant, copper pheasant and wild duck, collected between 2011 and 2015. Open data sources were used from Fukushima, Miyagi, Ibaraki, Tochigi, and Gunma prefectures. Our initially compiled data showed that the maximum reported (137)Cs activity concentration in wild boar after the Fukushima Dai-ichi accident were lower than those reported after the Chernobyl accident. The geometric mean Tag values (m(2)kg(-1) fw) of (137)Cs in 2015 for Asian black bear, wild boar, sika deer and copper pheasant were similar (1.9-5.1) × 10(-3) while those for green pheasant and wild duck were about 1 order of magnitude lower at (1.0-2.2) × 10(-4). Effective half-lives were 1.2-6.9 y except for sika deer and copper pheasant where no decreases were found. In contrast to the Chernobyl accident, no seasonal change occurred in the meat (137)Cs activity concentrations of the wild animals during the study period. PMID:27513196

  14. Analysis of avalanche risk factors in backcountry terrain based on usage frequency and accident data in Switzerland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Techel, F.; Zweifel, B.; Winkler, K.

    2015-09-01

    Recreational activities in snow-covered mountainous terrain in the backcountry account for the vast majority of avalanche accidents. Studies analyzing avalanche risk mostly rely on accident statistics without considering exposure (or the elements at risk), i.e., how many, when and where people are recreating, as data on recreational activity in the winter mountains are scarce. To fill this gap, we explored volunteered geographic information on two social media mountaineering websites - bergportal.ch and camptocamp.org. Based on these data, we present a spatiotemporal pattern of winter backcountry touring activity in the Swiss Alps and compare this with accident statistics. Geographically, activity was concentrated in Alpine regions relatively close to the main Swiss population centers in the west and north. In contrast, accidents occurred equally often in the less-frequented inner-alpine regions. Weekends, weather and avalanche conditions influenced the number of recreationists, while the odds to be involved in a severe avalanche accident did not depend on weekends or weather conditions. However, the likelihood of being involved in an accident increased with increasing avalanche danger level, but also with a more unfavorable snowpack containing persistent weak layers (also referred to as an old snow problem). In fact, the most critical situation for backcountry recreationists and professionals occurred on days and in regions when both the avalanche danger was critical and when the snowpack contained persistent weak layers. The frequently occurring geographical pattern of a more unfavorable snowpack structure also explains the relatively high proportion of accidents in the less-frequented inner-alpine regions. These results have practical implications: avalanche forecasters should clearly communicate the avalanche danger and the avalanche problem to the backcountry user, particularly if persistent weak layers are of concern. Professionals and recreationists, on the

  15. Accident/Mishap Investigation System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Keller, Richard; Wolfe, Shawn; Gawdiak, Yuri; Carvalho, Robert; Panontin, Tina; Williams, James; Sturken, Ian

    2007-01-01

    InvestigationOrganizer (IO) is a Web-based collaborative information system that integrates the generic functionality of a database, a document repository, a semantic hypermedia browser, and a rule-based inference system with specialized modeling and visualization functionality to support accident/mishap investigation teams. This accessible, online structure is designed to support investigators by allowing them to make explicit, shared, and meaningful links among evidence, causal models, findings, and recommendations.

  16. Causality: Physics and Philosophy

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chatterjee, Atanu

    2013-01-01

    Nature is a complex causal network exhibiting diverse forms and species. These forms or rather systems are physically open, structurally complex and naturally adaptive. They interact with the surrounding media by operating a positive-feedback loop through which, they adapt, organize and self-organize themselves in response to the ever-changing…

  17. The Causal Asymmetry

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    White, Peter A.

    2006-01-01

    It is hypothesized that there is a pervasive and fundamental bias in humans' understanding of physical causation: Once the roles of cause and effect are assigned to objects in interactions, people tend to overestimate the strength and importance of the causal object and underestimate that of the effect object in bringing about the outcome. This…

  18. Causal essentialism in kinds.

    PubMed

    Ahn, Woo-kyoung; Taylor, Eric G; Kato, Daniel; Marsh, Jessecae K; Bloom, Paul

    2013-06-01

    The current study examines causal essentialism, derived from psychological essentialism of concepts. We examine whether people believe that members of a category share some underlying essence that is both necessary and sufficient for category membership and that also causes surface features. The main claim is that causal essentialism is restricted to categories that correspond to our intuitive notions of existing kinds and hence is more attenuated for categories that are based on arbitrary criteria. Experiments 1 and 3 found that people overtly endorse causal essences in nonarbitrary kinds but are less likely to do so for arbitrary categories. Experiments 2 and 4 found that people were more willing to generalize a member's known causal relations (or lack thereof) when dealing with a kind than when dealing with an arbitrary category. These differences between kinds and arbitrary categories were found across various domains-not only for categories of living things, but also for artefacts. These findings have certain real-world implications, including how people make sense of mental disorders that are treated as real kinds. PMID:23098315

  19. Causal Premise Semantics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kaufmann, Stefan

    2013-01-01

    The rise of causality and the attendant graph-theoretic modeling tools in the study of counterfactual reasoning has had resounding effects in many areas of cognitive science, but it has thus far not permeated the mainstream in linguistic theory to a comparable degree. In this study I show that a version of the predominant framework for the formal…

  20. Causal Responsibility and Counterfactuals

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lagnado, David A.; Gerstenberg, Tobias; Zultan, Ro'i

    2013-01-01

    How do people attribute responsibility in situations where the contributions of multiple agents combine to produce a joint outcome? The prevalence of over-determination in such cases makes this a difficult problem for counterfactual theories of causal responsibility. In this article, we explore a general framework for assigning responsibility in…

  1. Evaluating Causal Models.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Watt, James H., Jr.

    Pointing out that linear causal models can organize the interrelationships of a large number of variables, this paper contends that such models are particularly useful to mass communication research, which must by necessity deal with complex systems of variables. The paper first outlines briefly the philosophical requirements for establishing a…

  2. Equipment failures and their contribution to industrial incidents and accidents in the manufacturing industry.

    PubMed

    Bourassa, Dominic; Gauthier, François; Abdul-Nour, Georges

    2016-01-01

    Accidental events in manufacturing industries can be caused by many factors, including work methods, lack of training, equipment design, maintenance and reliability. This study is aimed at determining the contribution of failures of commonly used industrial equipment, such as machines, tools and material handling equipment, to the chain of causality of industrial accidents and incidents. Based on a case study which aimed at the analysis of an existing pulp and paper company's accident database, this paper examines the number, type and gravity of the failures involved in these events and their causes. Results from this study show that equipment failures had a major effect on the number and severity of accidents accounted for in the database: 272 out of 773 accidental events were related to equipment failure, where 13 of them had direct human consequences. Failures that contributed directly or indirectly to these events are analyzed. PMID:26652772

  3. Anthropotechnological analysis of industrial accidents in Brazil.

    PubMed Central

    Binder, M. C.; de Almeida, I. M.; Monteau, M.

    1999-01-01

    The Brazilian Ministry of Labour has been attempting to modify the norms used to analyse industrial accidents in the country. For this purpose, in 1994 it tried to make compulsory use of the causal tree approach to accident analysis, an approach developed in France during the 1970s, without having previously determined whether it is suitable for use under the industrial safety conditions that prevail in most Brazilian firms. In addition, opposition from Brazilian employers has blocked the proposed changes to the norms. The present study employed anthropotechnology to analyse experimental application of the causal tree method to work-related accidents in industrial firms in the region of Botucatu, São Paulo. Three work-related accidents were examined in three industrial firms representative of local, national and multinational companies. On the basis of the accidents analysed in this study, the rationale for the use of the causal tree method in Brazil can be summarized for each type of firm as follows: the method is redundant if there is a predominance of the type of risk whose elimination or neutralization requires adoption of conventional industrial safety measures (firm representative of local enterprises); the method is worth while if the company's specific technical risks have already largely been eliminated (firm representative of national enterprises); and the method is particularly appropriate if the firm has a good safety record and the causes of accidents are primarily related to industrial organization and management (multinational enterprise). PMID:10680249

  4. Causal Status and Coherence in Causal-Based Categorization

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rehder, Bob; Kim, ShinWoo

    2010-01-01

    Research has documented two effects of interfeature causal knowledge on classification. A "causal status effect" occurs when features that are causes are more important to category membership than their effects. A "coherence effect" occurs when combinations of features that are consistent with causal laws provide additional evidence of category…

  5. Optimal causal inference: Estimating stored information and approximating causal architecture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Still, Susanne; Crutchfield, James P.; Ellison, Christopher J.

    2010-09-01

    We introduce an approach to inferring the causal architecture of stochastic dynamical systems that extends rate-distortion theory to use causal shielding—a natural principle of learning. We study two distinct cases of causal inference: optimal causal filtering and optimal causal estimation. Filtering corresponds to the ideal case in which the probability distribution of measurement sequences is known, giving a principled method to approximate a system's causal structure at a desired level of representation. We show that in the limit in which a model-complexity constraint is relaxed, filtering finds the exact causal architecture of a stochastic dynamical system, known as the causal-state partition. From this, one can estimate the amount of historical information the process stores. More generally, causal filtering finds a graded model-complexity hierarchy of approximations to the causal architecture. Abrupt changes in the hierarchy, as a function of approximation, capture distinct scales of structural organization. For nonideal cases with finite data, we show how the correct number of the underlying causal states can be found by optimal causal estimation. A previously derived model-complexity control term allows us to correct for the effect of statistical fluctuations in probability estimates and thereby avoid overfitting.

  6. Sleep related vehicle accidents.

    PubMed Central

    Horne, J. A.; Reyner, L. A.

    1995-01-01

    OBJECTIVES--To assess the incidence, time of day, and driver morbidity associated with vehicle accidents where the most likely cause was the driver falling asleep at the wheel. DESIGN--Two surveys were undertaken, in southwest England and the midlands, by using police databases or on the spot interviews. SUBJECTS--Drivers involved in 679 sleep related vehicle accidents. RESULTS--Of all vehicle accidents to which the police were summoned, sleep related vehicle accidents comprised 16% on major roads in southwest England, and over 20% on midland motorways. During the 24 hour period there were three major peaks: at around 0200, 0600, and 1600. About half these drivers were men under 30 years; few such accidents involved women. CONCLUSIONS--Sleep related vehicle accidents are largely dependent on the time of day and account for a considerable proportion of vehicle accidents, especially those on motorways and other monotonous roads. As there are no norms for the United Kingdom on road use by age and sex for time of day with which to compare these data, we cannot determine what the hourly exposure v risk factors are for these subgroups. The findings are in close agreement with those from other countries. PMID:7888930

  7. The development of causal categorization.

    PubMed

    Hayes, Brett K; Rehder, Bob

    2012-08-01

    Two experiments examined the impact of causal relations between features on categorization in 5- to 6-year-old children and adults. Participants learned artificial categories containing instances with causally related features and noncausal features. They then selected the most likely category member from a series of novel test pairs. Classification patterns and logistic regression were used to diagnose the presence of independent effects of causal coherence, causal status, and relational centrality. Adult classification was driven primarily by coherence when causal links were deterministic (Experiment 1) but showed additional influences of causal status when links were probabilistic (Experiment 2). Children's classification was based primarily on causal coherence in both cases. There was no effect of relational centrality in either age group. These results suggest that the generative model (Rehder, 2003a) provides a good account of causal categorization in children as well as adults. PMID:22462547

  8. The Host-Agent-Environment Concept of Accidents.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Phillips, Don

    Background information is presented to indicate that accidents are an environmental health problem. While accidents are seldom thought to be a disease process, in many ways there are remarkable similarities--not only in terms of causal relationships, but also in preventive aspects. These parallels are described in terms of host-agent-environment…

  9. Safer approaches and landings: A multivariate analysis of critical factors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heinrich, Durwood J.

    The approach-and-landing phases of flight represent 27% of mission time while resulting in 61 of the accidents and 39% of the fatalities. The landing phase itself represents only 1% of flight time but claims 45% of the accidents. Inadequate crew situation awareness (SA), crew resource management (CRM), and crew decision-making (DM) have been implicated in 51%, 63%, and 73% respectively of these accidents. The human factors constructs of SA, CRM, and DM were explored; a comprehensive definition of SA was proposed; and a "proactive defense" safety strategy was recommended. Data from a 1997 analysis of worldwide fatal accidents by the Flight Safety Foundation (FSF) Approach-and-Landing Accident Reduction (ALAR) Task Force was used to isolate crew- and weather-related causal factors that lead to approach-and-landing accidents (ALAs). Logistic regression and decision tree analysis were used on samplings of NASA's Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS) incident records ("near misses") and the National Transportation Safety Board's (NTSB) accident reports to examine hypotheses regarding factors and factor combinations that can dramatically increase the opportunity for accidents. An effective scale of risk factors was introduced for use by crews to proactively counter safety-related error-chain situations.

  10. Causal Discovery of Dynamic Systems

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Voortman, Mark

    2010-01-01

    Recently, several philosophical and computational approaches to causality have used an interventionist framework to clarify the concept of causality [Spirtes et al., 2000, Pearl, 2000, Woodward, 2005]. The characteristic feature of the interventionist approach is that causal models are potentially useful in predicting the effects of manipulations.…

  11. Causal Cohesion and Story Coherence.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Trabasso, Tom; And Others

    Based on the theory that a story's coherence depends directly on the causal cohesiveness of the story's individual events, this paper describes (1) a process by which readers use causal reasoning to connect events, (2) what memory representations result from this reasoning, and (3) the implications of test data on causal reasoning. Following a…

  12. Reduction factors for wooden houses due to external γ-radiation based on in situ measurements after the Fukushima nuclear accident

    PubMed Central

    Yoshida-Ohuchi, Hiroko; Hosoda, Masahiro; Kanagami, Takashi; Uegaki, Masaki; Tashima, Hideo

    2014-01-01

    For estimation of residents' exposure dose after a nuclear accident, the reduction factor, which is the ratio of the indoor dose to the outdoor dose is essential, as most individuals spend a large portion of their time indoors. After the Fukushima nuclear accident, we evaluated the median reduction factor with an interquartile range of 0.43 (0.34–0.53) based on 522 survey results for 69 detached wooden houses in two evacuation zones, Iitate village and Odaka district. The results indicated no statistically significant difference in the median reduction factor to the representative value of 0.4 given in the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)-TECDOC-225 and 1162. However, with regard to the representative range of the reduction factor, we recommend the wider range of 0.2 to 0.7 or at least 0.2 to 0.6, which covered 87.7% and 80.7% of the data, respectively, rather than 0.2 to 0.5 given in the IAEA document, which covered only 66.5% of the data. We found that the location of the room within the house and area topography, and the use of cement roof tiles had the greatest influence on the reduction factor. PMID:25519512

  13. Type A Accident Investigation Board report on the January 17, 1996, electrical accident with injury in Technical Area 21 Tritium Science and Fabrication Facility Los Alamos National Laboratory. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    1996-04-01

    An electrical accident was investigated in which a crafts person received serious injuries as a result of coming into contact with a 13.2 kilovolt (kV) electrical cable in the basement of Building 209 in Technical Area 21 (TA-21-209) in the Tritium Science and Fabrication Facility (TSFF) at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). In conducting its investigation, the Accident Investigation Board used various analytical techniques, including events and causal factor analysis, barrier analysis, change analysis, fault tree analysis, materials analysis, and root cause analysis. The board inspected the accident site, reviewed events surrounding the accident, conducted extensive interviews and document reviews, and performed causation analyses to determine the factors that contributed to the accident, including any management system deficiencies. Relevant management systems and factors that could have contributed to the accident were evaluated in accordance with the guiding principles of safety management identified by the Secretary of Energy in an October 1994 letter to the Defense Nuclear Facilities Safety Board and subsequently to Congress.

  14. Causal Responsibility and Counterfactuals

    PubMed Central

    Lagnado, David A; Gerstenberg, Tobias; Zultan, Ro'i

    2013-01-01

    How do people attribute responsibility in situations where the contributions of multiple agents combine to produce a joint outcome? The prevalence of over-determination in such cases makes this a difficult problem for counterfactual theories of causal responsibility. In this article, we explore a general framework for assigning responsibility in multiple agent contexts. We draw on the structural model account of actual causation (e.g., Halpern & Pearl, 2005) and its extension to responsibility judgments (Chockler & Halpern, 2004). We review the main theoretical and empirical issues that arise from this literature and propose a novel model of intuitive judgments of responsibility. This model is a function of both pivotality (whether an agent made a difference to the outcome) and criticality (how important the agent is perceived to be for the outcome, before any actions are taken). The model explains empirical results from previous studies and is supported by a new experiment that manipulates both pivotality and criticality. We also discuss possible extensions of this model to deal with a broader range of causal situations. Overall, our approach emphasizes the close interrelations between causality, counterfactuals, and responsibility attributions. PMID:23855451

  15. From Granger causality to long-term causality: Application to climatic data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smirnov, Dmitry A.; Mokhov, Igor I.

    2009-07-01

    Quantitative characterization of interaction between processes from time series is often required in different fields of natural science including geophysics and biophysics. Typically, one estimates “short-term” influences, e.g., the widely used Granger causality is defined via one-step-ahead predictions. Such an approach does not reveal how strongly the “long-term” behavior of one process under study is affected by the others. To overcome this problem, we introduce the concept of long-term causality, which extends the concept of Granger causality. The long-term causality is estimated from data via empirical modeling and analysis of model dynamics under different conditions. Apart from mathematical examples, we apply both approaches to find out how strongly the global surface temperature (GST) is affected by variations in carbon dioxide atmospheric content, solar activity, and volcanic activity during the last 150 years. Influences of all the three factors on GST are detected with the Granger causality. However, the long-term causality shows that the rise in GST during the last decades can be explained only if the anthropogenic factor (CO2) is taken into account in a model.

  16. A Causal Model of Faculty Turnover Intentions.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Smart, John C.

    1990-01-01

    A causal model assesses the relative influence of individual attributes, institutional characteristics, contextual-work environment variables, and multiple measures of job satisfaction on faculty intentions to leave their current institutions. Factors considered include tenure status, age, institutional status, governance style, organizational…

  17. Causal Thinking and the Representation of Narrative Events.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Trabasso, Tom; Van Den Broek, Paul

    1985-01-01

    Presents a comparative reanalysis of two studies into why some story events are more memorable than other events. Also proposes a theoretical account of the identified variables (story-grammar category, causal chain, causal connectivity factors to recall, and other measures of story understanding) and their influence on the comprehension of…

  18. Comparison theorems for causal diamonds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Berthiere, Clément; Gibbons, Gary; Solodukhin, Sergey N.

    2015-09-01

    We formulate certain inequalities for the geometric quantities characterizing causal diamonds in curved and Minkowski spacetimes. These inequalities involve the redshift factor which, as we show explicitly in the spherically symmetric case, is monotonic in the radial direction, and it takes its maximal value at the center. As a by-product of our discussion we rederive Bishop's inequality without assuming the positivity of the spatial Ricci tensor. We then generalize our considerations to arbitrary, static and not necessarily spherically symmetric, asymptotically flat spacetimes. In the case of spacetimes with a horizon our generalization involves the so-called domain of dependence. The respective volume, expressed in terms of the duration measured by a distant observer compared with the volume of the domain in Minkowski spacetime, exhibits behaviors which differ if d =4 or d >4 . This peculiarity of four dimensions is due to the logarithmic subleading term in the asymptotic expansion of the metric near infinity. In terms of the invariant duration measured by a comoving observer associated with the diamond we establish an inequality which is universal for all d . We suggest some possible applications of our results including comparison theorems for entanglement entropy, causal set theory, and fundamental limits on computation.

  19. Down syndrome clusters in Germany after the Chernobyl accident.

    PubMed

    Burkart, W; Grosche, B; Schoetzau, A

    1997-03-01

    In two independent studies using different approaches and covering West Berlin and Bavaria, respectively, highly significant temporal clusters of Down syndrome were found. Both sharp increases occurred in areas receiving relatively low Chernobyl fallout and concomitant radiation exposures. Only for the Berlin cluster was fallout present at the time of the affected meioses, whereas the Nuremberg cluster preceded the radioactive contamination by 1 month. Hypotheses on possible causal relationships are compared. Radiation from the Chernobyl accident is an unlikely factor, because the associated cumulative dose was so low in comparison with natural background. Microdosimetric considerations would indicate that fewer than 1 in 200 oocyte nuclei would have experienced an ionizing event from Chernobyl radioactivity. Given the lack of understanding of what causes Down syndrome, other than factors associated with increased maternal age, additional research into environmental and infectious risk factors is warranted. PMID:9052678

  20. Down syndrome clusters in Germany after the Chernobyl accident

    SciTech Connect

    Burkart, W.; Grosche, B.; Schoetzau, A.

    1997-03-01

    In two independent studies using different approaches and covering West Berlin and Bavaria, respectively, highly significant temporal clusters of Down syndrome were found. Both sharp increases occurred in areas receiving relatively low Chernobyl fallout and concomitant radiation exposures. Only for the Berlin cluster was fallout present at the time of the affected meiosis, whereas the Nuremberg cluster preceded the radioactive contamination by 1 month. Hypotheses on possible causal relationships are compared. Radiation from the Chernobyl accident is an unlikely factor, because the associated cumulative dose was so low in comparison with natural background. Microdosimetric considerations would indicate that fewer than 1 in 200 oocyte nuclei would have experienced an ionizing event from Chernobyl radioactivity. Given the lack of understanding of what causes Down syndrome, other than factors associated with increased maternal age, additional research into environmental and infectious risk factors is warranted. 23 refs., 4 figs., 2 tabs.

  1. Major Factors Affecting Incidence of Childhood Thyroid Cancer in Belarus after the Chernobyl Accident: Do Nitrates in Drinking Water Play a Role?

    PubMed Central

    Drozd, Valentina M.; Saenko, Vladimir A.; Brenner, Alina V.; Drozdovitch, Vladimir; Pashkevich, Vasilii I.; Kudelsky, Anatoliy V.; Demidchik, Yuri E.; Branovan, Igor; Shiglik, Nikolay; Rogounovitch, Tatiana I.; Yamashita, Shunichi; Biko, Johannes; Reiners, Christoph

    2015-01-01

    One of the major health consequences of the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant accident in 1986 was a dramatic increase in incidence of thyroid cancer among those who were aged less than 18 years at the time of the accident. This increase has been directly linked in several analytic epidemiological studies to iodine-131 (131I) thyroid doses received from the accident. However, there remains limited understanding of factors that modify the 131I-related risk. Focusing on post-Chernobyl pediatric thyroid cancer in Belarus, we reviewed evidence of the effects of radiation, thyroid screening, and iodine deficiency on regional differences in incidence rates of thyroid cancer. We also reviewed current evidence on content of nitrate in groundwater and thyroid cancer risk drawing attention to high levels of nitrates in open well water in several contaminated regions of Belarus, i.e. Gomel and Brest, related to the usage of nitrogen fertilizers. In this hypothesis generating study, based on ecological data and biological plausibility, we suggest that nitrate pollution may modify the radiation-related risk of thyroid cancer contributing to regional differences in rates of pediatric thyroid cancer in Belarus. Analytic epidemiological studies designed to evaluate joint effect of nitrate content in groundwater and radiation present a promising avenue of research and may provide useful insights into etiology of thyroid cancer. PMID:26397978

  2. An influential factor for external radiation dose estimation for residents after the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident-time spent outdoors for residents in Iitate Village.

    PubMed

    Ishikawa, Tetsuo; Yasumura, Seiji; Ohtsuru, Akira; Sakai, Akira; Akahane, Keiichi; Yonai, Shunsuke; Sakata, Ritsu; Ozasa, Kotaro; Hayashi, Masayuki; Ohira, Tetsuya; Kamiya, Kenji; Abe, Masafumi

    2016-06-01

    Many studies have been conducted on radiation doses to residents after the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) accident. Time spent outdoors is an influential factor for external dose estimation. Since little information was available on actual time spent outdoors for residents, different values of average time spent outdoors per day have been used in dose estimation studies on the FDNPP accident. The most conservative value of 24 h was sometimes used, while 2.4 h was adopted for indoor workers in the UNSCEAR 2013 report. Fukushima Medical University has been estimating individual external doses received by residents as a part of the Fukushima Health Management Survey by collecting information on the records of moves and activities (the Basic Survey) after the accident from each resident. In the present study, these records were analyzed to estimate an average time spent outdoors per day. As an example, in Iitate Village, its arithmetic mean was 2.08 h (95% CI: 1.64-2.51) for a total of 170 persons selected from respondents to the Basic Survey. This is a much smaller value than commonly assumed. When 2.08 h is used for the external dose estimation, the dose is about 25% (23-26% when using the above 95% CI) less compared with the dose estimated for the commonly used value of 8 h. PMID:27034103

  3. Comprehensive Analysis of Two Downburst-Related Aircraft Accidents

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shen, J.; Parks, E. K.; Bach, R. E.

    1996-01-01

    Although downbursts have been identified as the major cause of a number of aircraft takeoff and landing accidents, only the 1985 Dallas/Fort Worth (DFW) and the more recent (July 1994) Charlotte, North Carolina, landing accidents provided sufficient onboard recorded data to perform a comprehensive analysis of the downburst phenomenon. The first step in the present analysis was the determination of the downburst wind components. Once the wind components and their gradients were determined, the degrading effect of the wind environment on the airplane's performance was calculated. This wind-shear-induced aircraft performance degradation, sometimes called the F-factor, was broken down into two components F(sub 1) and F(sub 2), representing the effect of the horizontal wind gradient and the vertical wind velocity, respectively. In both the DFW and Charlotte cases, F(sub 1) was found to be the dominant causal factor of the accident. Next, the aircraft in the two cases were mathematically modeled using the longitudinal equations of motion and the appropriate aerodynamic parameters. Based on the aircraft model and the determined winds, the aircraft response to the recorded pilot inputs showed good agreement with the onboard recordings. Finally, various landing abort strategies were studied. It was concluded that the most acceptable landing abort strategy from both an analytical and pilot's standpoint was to hold constant nose-up pitch attitude while operating at maximum engine thrust.

  4. Quantum information causality.

    PubMed

    Pitalúa-García, Damián

    2013-05-24

    How much information can a transmitted physical system fundamentally communicate? We introduce the principle of quantum information causality, which states the maximum amount of quantum information that a quantum system can communicate as a function of its dimension, independently of any previously shared quantum physical resources. We present a new quantum information task, whose success probability is upper bounded by the new principle, and show that an optimal strategy to perform it combines the quantum teleportation and superdense coding protocols with a task that has classical inputs. PMID:23745844

  5. Causal Entropic Forces

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wissner-Gross, A. D.; Freer, C. E.

    2013-04-01

    Recent advances in fields ranging from cosmology to computer science have hinted at a possible deep connection between intelligence and entropy maximization, but no formal physical relationship between them has yet been established. Here, we explicitly propose a first step toward such a relationship in the form of a causal generalization of entropic forces that we find can cause two defining behaviors of the human “cognitive niche”—tool use and social cooperation—to spontaneously emerge in simple physical systems. Our results suggest a potentially general thermodynamic model of adaptive behavior as a nonequilibrium process in open systems.

  6. The Perceived Socioeconomic Status Is an Important Factor of Health Recovery for Victims of Occupational Accidents in Korea

    PubMed Central

    Roh, Jaehoon

    2016-01-01

    We aimed to examine whether there is a correlation between the health recovery of industrial accident victims and their perceived socioeconomic status. Data were obtained from the first Panel Study of Worker's Compensation Insurance, which included 2,000 participants. We performed multivariate regression analysis and determined the odds ratios for participants with a subjectively lower socioeconomic status and for those with a subjectively lower middle socioeconomic status using 95% confidence intervals. An additional multivariate regression analysis yielded the odds ratios for participants with a subjectively lower socioeconomic status and those with a subjectively upper middle socioeconomic class using 95% confidence intervals. Of all participants, 299 reported a full recovery, whereas 1,701 did not. We examined the odds ratio (95% confidence intervals) for participants' health recovery according to their subjective socioeconomic status while controlling for sex, age, education, tobacco use, alcohol use, subjective state of health prior to the accident, chronic disease, employment duration, recovery period, accident type, disability status, disability rating, and economic participation. The odds of recovery in participants with a subjectively lower middle socioeconomic status were 1.707 times greater (1.264-2.305) than that of those with a subjectively lower socioeconomic status. Similarly, the odds of recovery in participants with a subjectively upper middle socioeconomic status were 3.124 times greater (1.795-5.438) than that of those with a subjectively lower socioeconomic status. Our findings indicate that participants' perceived socioeconomic disparities extend to disparities in their health status. The reinforcement of welfare measures is greatly needed to temper these disparities. PMID:26839467

  7. The Perceived Socioeconomic Status Is an Important Factor of Health Recovery for Victims of Occupational Accidents in Korea.

    PubMed

    Seok, Hongdeok; Yoon, Jin-Ha; Lee, Wanhyung; Lee, June-Hee; Jung, Pil Kyun; Roh, Jaehoon; Won, Jong-Uk

    2016-02-01

    We aimed to examine whether there is a correlation between the health recovery of industrial accident victims and their perceived socioeconomic status. Data were obtained from the first Panel Study of Worker's Compensation Insurance, which included 2,000 participants. We performed multivariate regression analysis and determined the odds ratios for participants with a subjectively lower socioeconomic status and for those with a subjectively lower middle socioeconomic status using 95% confidence intervals. An additional multivariate regression analysis yielded the odds ratios for participants with a subjectively lower socioeconomic status and those with a subjectively upper middle socioeconomic class using 95% confidence intervals. Of all participants, 299 reported a full recovery, whereas 1,701 did not. We examined the odds ratio (95% confidence intervals) for participants' health recovery according to their subjective socioeconomic status while controlling for sex, age, education, tobacco use, alcohol use, subjective state of health prior to the accident, chronic disease, employment duration, recovery period, accident type, disability status, disability rating, and economic participation. The odds of recovery in participants with a subjectively lower middle socioeconomic status were 1.707 times greater (1.264-2.305) than that of those with a subjectively lower socioeconomic status. Similarly, the odds of recovery in participants with a subjectively upper middle socioeconomic status were 3.124 times greater (1.795-5.438) than that of those with a subjectively lower socioeconomic status. Our findings indicate that participants' perceived socioeconomic disparities extend to disparities in their health status. The reinforcement of welfare measures is greatly needed to temper these disparities. PMID:26839467

  8. Identification of causal genes for complex traits

    PubMed Central

    Hormozdiari, Farhad; Kichaev, Gleb; Yang, Wen-Yun; Pasaniuc, Bogdan; Eskin, Eleazar

    2015-01-01

    Motivation: Although genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified thousands of variants associated with common diseases and complex traits, only a handful of these variants are validated to be causal. We consider ‘causal variants’ as variants which are responsible for the association signal at a locus. As opposed to association studies that benefit from linkage disequilibrium (LD), the main challenge in identifying causal variants at associated loci lies in distinguishing among the many closely correlated variants due to LD. This is particularly important for model organisms such as inbred mice, where LD extends much further than in human populations, resulting in large stretches of the genome with significantly associated variants. Furthermore, these model organisms are highly structured and require correction for population structure to remove potential spurious associations. Results: In this work, we propose CAVIAR-Gene (CAusal Variants Identification in Associated Regions), a novel method that is able to operate across large LD regions of the genome while also correcting for population structure. A key feature of our approach is that it provides as output a minimally sized set of genes that captures the genes which harbor causal variants with probability ρ. Through extensive simulations, we demonstrate that our method not only speeds up computation, but also have an average of 10% higher recall rate compared with the existing approaches. We validate our method using a real mouse high-density lipoprotein data (HDL) and show that CAVIAR-Gene is able to identify Apoa2 (a gene known to harbor causal variants for HDL), while reducing the number of genes that need to be tested for functionality by a factor of 2. Availability and implementation: Software is freely available for download at genetics.cs.ucla.edu/caviar. Contact: eeskin@cs.ucla.edu PMID:26072484

  9. Experimental test of nonlocal causality.

    PubMed

    Ringbauer, Martin; Giarmatzi, Christina; Chaves, Rafael; Costa, Fabio; White, Andrew G; Fedrizzi, Alessandro

    2016-08-01

    Explaining observations in terms of causes and effects is central to empirical science. However, correlations between entangled quantum particles seem to defy such an explanation. This implies that some of the fundamental assumptions of causal explanations have to give way. We consider a relaxation of one of these assumptions, Bell's local causality, by allowing outcome dependence: a direct causal influence between the outcomes of measurements of remote parties. We use interventional data from a photonic experiment to bound the strength of this causal influence in a two-party Bell scenario, and observational data from a Bell-type inequality test for the considered models. Our results demonstrate the incompatibility of quantum mechanics with a broad class of nonlocal causal models, which includes Bell-local models as a special case. Recovering a classical causal picture of quantum correlations thus requires an even more radical modification of our classical notion of cause and effect. PMID:27532045

  10. Redundant variables and Granger causality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Angelini, L.; de Tommaso, M.; Marinazzo, D.; Nitti, L.; Pellicoro, M.; Stramaglia, S.

    2010-03-01

    We discuss the use of multivariate Granger causality in presence of redundant variables: the application of the standard analysis, in this case, leads to under estimation of causalities. Using the un-normalized version of the causality index, we quantitatively develop the notions of redundancy and synergy in the frame of causality and propose two approaches to group redundant variables: (i) for a given target, the remaining variables are grouped so as to maximize the total causality and (ii) the whole set of variables is partitioned to maximize the sum of the causalities between subsets. We show the application to a real neurological experiment, aiming to a deeper understanding of the physiological basis of abnormal neuronal oscillations in the migraine brain. The outcome by our approach reveals the change in the informational pattern due to repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulations.

  11. Causal inference based on counterfactuals

    PubMed Central

    Höfler, M

    2005-01-01

    Background The counterfactual or potential outcome model has become increasingly standard for causal inference in epidemiological and medical studies. Discussion This paper provides an overview on the counterfactual and related approaches. A variety of conceptual as well as practical issues when estimating causal effects are reviewed. These include causal interactions, imperfect experiments, adjustment for confounding, time-varying exposures, competing risks and the probability of causation. It is argued that the counterfactual model of causal effects captures the main aspects of causality in health sciences and relates to many statistical procedures. Summary Counterfactuals are the basis of causal inference in medicine and epidemiology. Nevertheless, the estimation of counterfactual differences pose several difficulties, primarily in observational studies. These problems, however, reflect fundamental barriers only when learning from observations, and this does not invalidate the counterfactual concept. PMID:16159397

  12. Experimental test of nonlocal causality

    PubMed Central

    Ringbauer, Martin; Giarmatzi, Christina; Chaves, Rafael; Costa, Fabio; White, Andrew G.; Fedrizzi, Alessandro

    2016-01-01

    Explaining observations in terms of causes and effects is central to empirical science. However, correlations between entangled quantum particles seem to defy such an explanation. This implies that some of the fundamental assumptions of causal explanations have to give way. We consider a relaxation of one of these assumptions, Bell’s local causality, by allowing outcome dependence: a direct causal influence between the outcomes of measurements of remote parties. We use interventional data from a photonic experiment to bound the strength of this causal influence in a two-party Bell scenario, and observational data from a Bell-type inequality test for the considered models. Our results demonstrate the incompatibility of quantum mechanics with a broad class of nonlocal causal models, which includes Bell-local models as a special case. Recovering a classical causal picture of quantum correlations thus requires an even more radical modification of our classical notion of cause and effect. PMID:27532045

  13. [Expert opinion of ORL for private accident insurance].

    PubMed

    Michel, O; Brusis, T

    2010-02-01

    The provisions and the aims of private accident insurance are not comparable to those of the statutory accident insurance. The ear nose throat- (ENT-)specialist is often consulted on the question of a possible causality between an accident and sequelae. Loss of smell, taste disorder and loss of hearing are specified in a table with a fixed percentage for compensation. The individual invalidity for ear ringing, vertigo and other disorders have to be determined separately from this table. In private accident insurance a probability bordering on absolute certainty must be given when establishing a possible causal connection whereby mental reactions are excluded from compensation and all sequelae have to have continued for at least 3 years. The occupation or specific skills of the injured person are not essential for the judgement. The current jurisdiction and conditions of private accident insurance for tinnitus and vertigo have to be taken into consideration. PMID:20127064

  14. The development of guideline factors for the evaluation of disability in neck and back injuries. Division of Industrial Accidents, State of California.

    PubMed

    Clark, W; Haldeman, S

    1993-10-01

    This is the second article documenting the development of guideline factors for the evaluation of spine injuries by a committee supported by the Division of Industrial Accidents (DIA) in the State of California. The committee was asked to develop guidelines that incorporated cervical and thoracic spine injuries into the original guidelines developed for lumbar spine injuries (Clark et al, Spine 1988; 13:332). Multiple Independent Medical Examiners (IMEs) were requested to rate disability on 42 case reports submitted to the DIA. A tremendous variation existed in the disability rating recommended by physicians given the same set of facts. One hundred eighty-five IMEs then were asked to evaluate a series of potential factors influencing disability. Each factor was listed according to its perceived importance in determining disability. These factors then were subjected to an intensive search of the medical and scientific literature to determine their validity. A final list of 28 factors for the cervical and thoracic spine were developed and combined with the previously published factors for the lumbar spine. This led to the development of 37 factors or guidelines for the evaluation of spine disability. Testing of this schedule was performed by reviewing 159 submitted disability consultation reports. This review showed that there were no factors in the reports that were not included in the schedule. An average of 3.1 subjective factors and 2.3 objective factors were noted in the reports, with a very poor relationship between the number of factors and the level of disability given by the assessing physician. It is thought that the incorporation of the proposed guideline factors into the current disability rating system would allow for a more reproducible evaluation of disability and allow Workers' Compensation judges and administrators to make disability decisions based on documentable and reliable facts. PMID:8235856

  15. Structural Equations and Causal Explanations: Some Challenges for Causal SEM

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Markus, Keith A.

    2010-01-01

    One common application of structural equation modeling (SEM) involves expressing and empirically investigating causal explanations. Nonetheless, several aspects of causal explanation that have an impact on behavioral science methodology remain poorly understood. It remains unclear whether applications of SEM should attempt to provide complete…

  16. Causal electromagnetic interaction equations

    SciTech Connect

    Zinoviev, Yury M.

    2011-02-15

    For the electromagnetic interaction of two particles the relativistic causal quantum mechanics equations are proposed. These equations are solved for the case when the second particle moves freely. The initial wave functions are supposed to be smooth and rapidly decreasing at the infinity. This condition is important for the convergence of the integrals similar to the integrals of quantum electrodynamics. We also consider the singular initial wave functions in the particular case when the second particle mass is equal to zero. The discrete energy spectrum of the first particle wave function is defined by the initial wave function of the free-moving second particle. Choosing the initial wave functions of the free-moving second particle it is possible to obtain a practically arbitrary discrete energy spectrum.

  17. Causality and cosmic inflation

    SciTech Connect

    Vachaspati, Tanmay; Trodden, Mark

    2000-01-15

    In the context of inflationary models with a pre-inflationary stage, in which the Einstein equations are obeyed, the null energy condition is satisfied, and spacetime topology is trivial, we argue that homogeneity on super-Hubble scales must be assumed as an initial condition. Models in which inflation arises from field dynamics in a Friedmann-Robertson-Walker background fall into this class but models in which inflation originates at the Planck epoch may evade this conclusion. Our arguments rest on causality and general relativistic constraints on the structure of spacetime. We discuss modifications to existing scenarios that may avoid the need for initial large-scale homogeneity. (c) 1999 The American Physical Society.

  18. Causality & holographic entanglement entropy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Headrick, Matthew; Hubeny, Veronika E.; Lawrence, Albion; Rangamani, Mukund

    2014-12-01

    We identify conditions for the entanglement entropy as a function of spatial region to be compatible with causality in an arbitrary relativistic quantum field theory. We then prove that the covariant holographic entanglement entropy prescription (which relates entanglement entropy of a given spatial region on the boundary to the area of a certain extremal surface in the bulk) obeys these conditions, as long as the bulk obeys the null energy condition. While necessary for the validity of the prescription, this consistency requirement is quite nontrivial from the bulk standpoint, and therefore provides important additional evidence for the prescription. In the process, we introduce a codimension-zero bulk region, named the entanglement wedge, naturally associated with the given boundary spatial region. We propose that the entanglement wedge is the most natural bulk region corresponding to the boundary reduced density matrix.

  19. Transfer factors and effective half-lives of (134)Cs and (137)Cs in different environmental sample types obtained from Northern Finland: case Fukushima accident.

    PubMed

    Koivurova, Matias; Leppänen, Ari-Pekka; Kallio, Antti

    2015-08-01

    The Fukushima NPP accident caused a small but detectable cesium fallout in northern Finland, of the order of 1 Bq/m(2). This fallout transferred further to soil, water, flora and fauna. By using modern HPGe detector systems traces of (134)Cs from the Fukushima fallout were observed in various samples of biota. In northern Finland different types of environmental samples such as reindeer meat, berries, fish, lichens and wolf were collected during 2011-2013. The observed (134)Cs concentrations varied from 0.1 Bq/kg to a few Bq/kg. By using the known (134)Cs/(137)Cs ratio observed in Fukushima fallout the increase of the Fukushima accident to the (137)Cs concentrations was found to vary from 0.06 % to 6.9 % depending on the sample type. The aggregated transfer factors (Tag) and effective half-lives (Teff) for (134)Cs and (137)Cs were also determined and then compared with known values found from earlier studies which are calculated based on the fallout from the Chernobyl accident. Generally, the Tag and Teff values determined in this study were found to agree with the values found in the earlier studies. The Teff values were sample-type specific and were found to vary from 0.91 to 2.1 years for (134)Cs and the estimates for (137)Cs ranged between 1.6 and 19 years. Interestingly, the ground lichens had the longest Teff whereas the beard lichen had the shortest. In fauna, highest Tag values were determined for wolf meat ranging between 1.0 and 2.2 m(2)/kg. In flora, the highest Tag values were determined for beard lichens, ranging from 1.9 m(2)/kg to 3.5 m(2)/kg. PMID:25935505

  20. Theory-Based Causal Induction

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Griffiths, Thomas L.; Tenenbaum, Joshua B.

    2009-01-01

    Inducing causal relationships from observations is a classic problem in scientific inference, statistics, and machine learning. It is also a central part of human learning, and a task that people perform remarkably well given its notorious difficulties. People can learn causal structure in various settings, from diverse forms of data: observations…

  1. Causal Learning with Local Computations

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fernbach, Philip M.; Sloman, Steven A.

    2009-01-01

    The authors proposed and tested a psychological theory of causal structure learning based on local computations. Local computations simplify complex learning problems via cues available on individual trials to update a single causal structure hypothesis. Structural inferences from local computations make minimal demands on memory, require…

  2. The Development of Causal Categorization

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hayes, Brett K.; Rehder, Bob

    2012-01-01

    Two experiments examined the impact of causal relations between features on categorization in 5- to 6-year-old children and adults. Participants learned artificial categories containing instances with causally related features and noncausal features. They then selected the most likely category member from a series of novel test pairs.…

  3. Causal Inference in Retrospective Studies.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Holland, Paul W.; Rubin, Donald B.

    1988-01-01

    The problem of drawing causal inferences from retrospective case-controlled studies is considered. A model for causal inference in prospective studies is applied to retrospective studies. Limitations of case-controlled studies are formulated concerning relevant parameters that can be estimated in such studies. A coffee-drinking/myocardial…

  4. Paradoxical Behavior of Granger Causality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Witt, Annette; Battaglia, Demian; Gail, Alexander

    2013-03-01

    Granger causality is a standard tool for the description of directed interaction of network components and is popular in many scientific fields including econometrics, neuroscience and climate science. For time series that can be modeled as bivariate auto-regressive processes we analytically derive an expression for spectrally decomposed Granger Causality (SDGC) and show that this quantity depends only on two out of four groups of model parameters. Then we present examples of such processes whose SDGC expose paradoxical behavior in the sense that causality is high for frequency ranges with low spectral power. For avoiding misinterpretations of Granger causality analysis we propose to complement it by partial spectral analysis. Our findings are illustrated by an example from brain electrophysiology. Finally, we draw implications for the conventional definition of Granger causality. Bernstein Center for Computational Neuroscience Goettingen

  5. CausalTrail: Testing hypothesis using causal Bayesian networks

    PubMed Central

    Trampert, Patrick; Lenhof, Hans-Peter

    2015-01-01

    Summary Causal Bayesian Networks are a special class of Bayesian networks in which the hierarchy directly encodes the causal relationships between the variables. This allows to compute the effect of interventions, which are external changes to the system, caused by e.g. gene knockouts or an administered drug. Whereas numerous packages for constructing causal Bayesian networks are available, hardly any program targeted at downstream analysis exists. In this paper we present CausalTrail, a tool for performing reasoning on causal Bayesian networks using the do-calculus. CausalTrail's features include multiple data import methods, a flexible query language for formulating hypotheses, as well as an intuitive graphical user interface. The program is able to account for missing data and thus can be readily applied in multi-omics settings where it is common that not all measurements are performed for all samples. Availability and Implementation CausalTrail is implemented in C++ using the Boost and Qt5 libraries. It can be obtained from https://github.com/dstoeckel/causaltrail PMID:26913195

  6. The Visual Causality Analyst: An Interactive Interface for Causal Reasoning.

    PubMed

    Wang, Jun; Mueller, Klaus

    2016-01-01

    Uncovering the causal relations that exist among variables in multivariate datasets is one of the ultimate goals in data analytics. Causation is related to correlation but correlation does not imply causation. While a number of casual discovery algorithms have been devised that eliminate spurious correlations from a network, there are no guarantees that all of the inferred causations are indeed true. Hence, bringing a domain expert into the casual reasoning loop can be of great benefit in identifying erroneous casual relationships suggested by the discovery algorithm. To address this need we present the Visual Causal Analyst-a novel visual causal reasoning framework that allows users to apply their expertise, verify and edit causal links, and collaborate with the causal discovery algorithm to identify a valid causal network. Its interface consists of both an interactive 2D graph view and a numerical presentation of salient statistical parameters, such as regression coefficients, p-values, and others. Both help users in gaining a good understanding of the landscape of causal structures particularly when the number of variables is large. Our framework is also novel in that it can handle both numerical and categorical variables within one unified model and return plausible results. We demonstrate its use via a set of case studies using multiple practical datasets. PMID:26529703

  7. PCR-based identification of cacao black pod causal agents and identification of biological factors possibly contributing to Phytophthora megakarya's field dominance in West Africa

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Among the Phytophthora species that cause black pod of cacao, P. megakarya is the most virulent, posing a serious threat to cacao production in Africa. Correct identification of the species causing the black pod and understanding the virulence factors involved are important for developing sustainabl...

  8. Multilevel Causal Analysis of Socio-Psychological and Behavioral Factors of Health Providers and Clients That Affect Health Behavioral Modification in Obesity

    PubMed Central

    Intarakamhang, Ungsinun; Intarakamhang, Patrawut

    2015-01-01

    The Comprehensive Lifestyle Intervention, which integrates behavioral therapy, is the main ideal management of the clients with obesity. Various socio-psychological factors can affect outcome of the program. The Purposes: To determine the socio-psychological factors at the client and provider groups that affect health behavior modification (HBM) in obese clients, and to investigate the cross-level interaction of factors that affect HBM. The samples included 87 health providers and 412 clients using stratified random sampling. Hierarchical Linear Model was used to analyze in a questionnaire with reliability of 0.8-0.9. Results: 1) for the clients: 1.1) Attitudes towards healthy behavior (AHB), health-related knowledge, and trust in the provider predicted self-efficacy at 49.40%; 1.2) AHB and support from the provider predicted self-regulation at 75.50%; and 1.3) AHB, trust in the provider and support from the provider predicted self-care at 26.6%. 2) for the health providers: 2.1) Health quotient (HQ), project management (PM), support from the team, and the team emotional quotient (EQ) predicted self-efficacy at 71.30%; 2.2) PM and HQ predicted self-regulation at 51.60%; and 2.3) PM, team EQ and HQ predicted self-care at 77.30%., 3) No cross-level interaction of factors between the clients and the providers was identified to affect HBM. Conclusion: The obese client’s AHB is the factor that significantly influenced self-efficacy, self-regulation and self-care (3SELF).At the health provider level, both HQ and PM significantly influenced 3SELF. Behavioral. PMID:26153178

  9. Causal Rasch models

    PubMed Central

    Stenner, A. Jackson; Fisher, William P.; Stone, Mark H.; Burdick, Donald S.

    2013-01-01

    Rasch's unidimensional models for measurement show how to connect object measures (e.g., reader abilities), measurement mechanisms (e.g., machine-generated cloze reading items), and observational outcomes (e.g., counts correct on reading instruments). Substantive theory shows what interventions or manipulations to the measurement mechanism can be traded off against a change to the object measure to hold the observed outcome constant. A Rasch model integrated with a substantive theory dictates the form and substance of permissible interventions. Rasch analysis, absent construct theory and an associated specification equation, is a black box in which understanding may be more illusory than not. Finally, the quantitative hypothesis can be tested by comparing theory-based trade-off relations with observed trade-off relations. Only quantitative variables (as measured) support such trade-offs. Note that to test the quantitative hypothesis requires more than manipulation of the algebraic equivalencies in the Rasch model or descriptively fitting data to the model. A causal Rasch model involves experimental intervention/manipulation on either reader ability or text complexity or a conjoint intervention on both simultaneously to yield a successful prediction of the resultant observed outcome (count correct). We conjecture that when this type of manipulation is introduced for individual reader text encounters and model predictions are consistent with observations, the quantitative hypothesis is sustained. PMID:23986726

  10. Generalized Causal Mediation Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Albert, Jeffrey M.; Nelson, Suchitra

    2010-01-01

    Summary The goal of mediation analysis is to assess direct and indirect effects of a treatment or exposure on an outcome. More generally, we may be interested in the context of a causal model as characterized by a directed acyclic graph (DAG), where mediation via a specific path from exposure to outcome may involve an arbitrary number of links (or ‘stages’). Methods for estimating mediation (or pathway) effects are available for a continuous outcome and a continuous mediator related via a linear model, while for a categorical outcome or categorical mediator, methods are usually limited to two-stage mediation. We present a method applicable to multiple stages of mediation and mixed variable types using generalized linear models. We define pathway effects using a potential outcomes framework and present a general formula that provides the effect of exposure through any specified pathway. Some pathway effects are nonidentifiable and their estimation requires an assumption regarding the correlation between counterfactuals. We provide a sensitivity analysis to assess of the impact of this assumption. Confidence intervals for pathway effect estimates are obtained via a bootstrap method. The method is applied to a cohort study of dental caries in very low birth weight adolescents. A simulation study demonstrates low bias of pathway effect estimators and close-to-nominal coverage rates of confidence intervals. We also find low sensitivity to the counterfactual correlation in most scenarios. PMID:21306353

  11. History, causality, and sexology.

    PubMed

    Money, John

    2003-08-01

    In 1896, Krafft-Ebing published Psychopathia Sexualis. Popularly defined as hereditary weakness or taintedness in the family pedigree, degeneracy was called upon as a causal explanation for perversions of the sexual instinct. Although Krafft-Ebing accepted Karl Ulrichs proposal that homosexuality could be innate and probably located in the brain, he paid little attention to neuropathological sexology. Alfred Binet challenged Krafft-Ebing's orthodoxy by explaining fetishism in terms of associative learning, to which Krafft-Ebing's response was that only those with a hereditary taint would be vulnerable. Thus did the venerable nature-nurture antithesis maintain its rhetoric, even to the present day. Krafft-Ebing died too soon to meet the Freudian challenge of endopsychic determinism, and too soon also to encounter the idea of a developmental multivariate outcome of what I have termed the lovemap. Like other brain maps, for example the languagemap, the lovemap requires an intact human brain in which to develop. The personalized content of the lovemap has access to the brain by way of the special senses. PMID:14533017

  12. ["Karoshi" and causal relationships].

    PubMed

    Hamajima, N

    1992-08-01

    This paper aims to introduce a measure for use by physicians for stating the degree of probable causal relationship for "Karoshi", ie, a sudden death from cerebrovascular diseases or ischemic heart diseases under occupational stresses, as well as to give a brief description for legal procedures associated with worker's compensation and civil trial in Japan. It is a well-used measure in epidemiology, "attributable risk percent (AR%)", which can be applied to describe the extent of contribution to "Karoshi" of the excess occupational burdens the deceased worker was forced to bear. Although several standards such as average occupational burdens for the worker, average occupational burdens for an ordinary worker, burdens in a nonoccupational life, and a complete rest, might be considered for the AR% estimation, the average occupational burdens for an ordinary worker should normally be utilized as a standard for worker's compensation. The adoption of AR% could be helpful for courts to make a consistent judgement whether "Karoshi" cases are compensatable or not. PMID:1392028

  13. Comparative chemical screening and genetic analysis reveal tentoxin as a new virulence factor in Cochliobolus miyabeanus, the causal agent of brown spot disease on rice.

    PubMed

    De Bruyne, Lieselotte; Van Poucke, Christof; Di Mavungu, Diana Jose; Zainudin, Nur Ain Izzati Mohd; Vanhaecke, Lynn; De Vleesschauwer, David; Turgeon, B Gillian; De Saeger, Sarah; Höfte, Monica

    2016-08-01

    Brown spot disease, caused by Cochliobolus miyabeanus, is currently considered to be one of the most important yield reducers of rice (Oryza sativa L.). Despite its agricultural importance, little is known about the virulence mechanisms deployed by the fungus. Therefore, we set out to identify novel virulence factors with a role in disease development. This article reports, for the first time, the production of tentoxin by C. miyabeanus as a virulence factor during brown spot disease and the identification of the non-ribosomal protein synthetase (NRPS) CmNps3, responsible for tentoxin biosynthesis. We compared the chemical compounds produced by C. miyabeanus strains differing in virulence ability using ultra-high-performance liquid chromatography (UHPLC) coupled to high-resolution Orbitrap mass spectrometry (HRMS). The production of tentoxin by a highly virulent strain was revealed by principal component analysis of the detected ions and confirmed by UHPLC coupled to tandem-quadrupole mass spectrometry (MS/MS). The corresponding NRPS was identified by in silico genome analysis and confirmed by gene deletion. Infection tests with wild-type and Cmnps3 mutants showed that tentoxin acts as a virulence factor and is correlated with chlorosis development during the second phase of infection. Although rice has previously been classified as a tentoxin-insensitive plant species, our data demonstrate that tentoxin production by C. miyabeanus affects symptom development. PMID:26456797

  14. Reducing Aviation Weather-Related Accidents Through High-Fidelity Weather Information Distribution and Presentation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stough, H. Paul, III; Shafer, Daniel B.; Schaffner, Philip R.; Martzaklis, Konstantinos S.

    2000-01-01

    In February 1997, the US President announced a national goal to reduce the fatal accident rate for aviation by 80% within ten years. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration established the Aviation Safety Program to develop technologies needed to meet this aggressive goal. Because weather has been identified (is a causal factor in approximately 30% of all aviation accidents, a project was established for the development of technologies that will provide accurate, time and intuitive information to pilots, dispatchers, and air traffic controllers to enable the detection and avoidance of atmospheric hazards. This project addresses the weather information needs of general, corporate, regional, and transport aircraft operators. An overview and status of research and development efforts for high-fidelity weather information distribution and presentation is discussed with emphasis on weather information in the cockpit.

  15. Principal stratification in causal inference.

    PubMed

    Frangakis, Constantine E; Rubin, Donald B

    2002-03-01

    Many scientific problems require that treatment comparisons be adjusted for posttreatment variables, but the estimands underlying standard methods are not causal effects. To address this deficiency, we propose a general framework for comparing treatments adjusting for posttreatment variables that yields principal effects based on principal stratification. Principal stratification with respect to a posttreatment variable is a cross-classification of subjects defined by the joint potential values of that posttreatment variable tinder each of the treatments being compared. Principal effects are causal effects within a principal stratum. The key property of principal strata is that they are not affected by treatment assignment and therefore can be used just as any pretreatment covariate. such as age category. As a result, the central property of our principal effects is that they are always causal effects and do not suffer from the complications of standard posttreatment-adjusted estimands. We discuss briefly that such principal causal effects are the link between three recent applications with adjustment for posttreatment variables: (i) treatment noncompliance, (ii) missing outcomes (dropout) following treatment noncompliance. and (iii) censoring by death. We then attack the problem of surrogate or biomarker endpoints, where we show, using principal causal effects, that all current definitions of surrogacy, even when perfectly true, do not generally have the desired interpretation as causal effects of treatment on outcome. We go on to forrmulate estimands based on principal stratification and principal causal effects and show their superiority. PMID:11890317

  16. "Head take you": causal attributions of mental illness in Jamaica.

    PubMed

    Arthur, Carlotta M; Whitley, Rob

    2015-02-01

    Causal attributions are a key factor in explanatory models of illness; however, little research on causal attributions of mental illness has been conducted in developing nations in the Caribbean, including Jamaica. Explanatory models of mental illness may be important in understanding illness experience and be a crucial factor in mental health service seeking and utilization. We explored causal attributions of mental illness in Jamaica by conducting 20 focus groups, including 16 community samples, 2 patient samples, and 2 samples of caregivers of patients, with a total of 159 participants. The 5 most commonly endorsed causal attributions of mental illness are discussed: (a) drug-related causes, including ganja (marijuana); (b) biological causes, such as chemical imbalance, familial transmission, and "blood"; (c) psychological causes, including stress and thinking too much; (d) social causes, such as relationship problems and job loss; and (e) spiritual or religious causes, including Obeah. PMID:25406259

  17. Schematic Patterns of Causal Evidence.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rholes, William S.; Walters, Jackie

    1982-01-01

    The study was to determine when the patterns of causal evidence proposed by Orvis, Cunningham and Kelly (1975) begin to function as schemata in the attributional process. One hundred forty-four subjects took part in the study. (RH)

  18. Boundary terms for causal sets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Buck, Michel; Dowker, Fay; Jubb, Ian; Surya, Sumati

    2015-10-01

    We propose a family of boundary terms for the action of a causal set with a spacelike boundary. We show that in the continuum limit one recovers the Gibbons-Hawking-York boundary term in the mean. We also calculate the continuum limit of the mean causal set action for an Alexandrov interval in flat spacetime. We find that it is equal to the volume of the codimension-2 intersection of the two light-cone boundaries of the interval.

  19. Blaming Leaders for Organizational Accidents: Proxy Logic in Collective- versus Individual-Agency Cultures

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zemba, Yuriko; Young, Maia J.; Morris, Michael W.

    2006-01-01

    The current research investigates whether observers blame leaders for organizational accidents even when these managers are known to be causally uninvolved. Past research finds that the public blames managers for organizational harm if the managers are perceived to have personally played a causal role. The present research argues that East Asian…

  20. Causal Inference in Public Health

    PubMed Central

    Glass, Thomas A.; Goodman, Steven N.; Hernán, Miguel A.; Samet, Jonathan M.

    2014-01-01

    Causal inference has a central role in public health; the determination that an association is causal indicates the possibility for intervention. We review and comment on the long-used guidelines for interpreting evidence as supporting a causal association and contrast them with the potential outcomes framework that encourages thinking in terms of causes that are interventions. We argue that in public health this framework is more suitable, providing an estimate of an action’s consequences rather than the less precise notion of a risk factor’s causal effect. A variety of modern statistical methods adopt this approach. When an intervention cannot be specified, causal relations can still exist, but how to intervene to change the outcome will be unclear. In application, the often-complex structure of causal processes needs to be acknowledged and appropriate data collected to study them. These newer approaches need to be brought to bear on the increasingly complex public health challenges of our globalized world. PMID:23297653

  1. An Evaluation of Active Learning Causal Discovery Methods for Reverse-Engineering Local Causal Pathways of Gene Regulation

    PubMed Central

    Ma, Sisi; Kemmeren, Patrick; Aliferis, Constantin F.; Statnikov, Alexander

    2016-01-01

    Reverse-engineering of causal pathways that implicate diseases and vital cellular functions is a fundamental problem in biomedicine. Discovery of the local causal pathway of a target variable (that consists of its direct causes and direct effects) is essential for effective intervention and can facilitate accurate diagnosis and prognosis. Recent research has provided several active learning methods that can leverage passively observed high-throughput data to draft causal pathways and then refine the inferred relations with a limited number of experiments. The current study provides a comprehensive evaluation of the performance of active learning methods for local causal pathway discovery in real biological data. Specifically, 54 active learning methods/variants from 3 families of algorithms were applied for local causal pathways reconstruction of gene regulation for 5 transcription factors in S. cerevisiae. Four aspects of the methods’ performance were assessed, including adjacency discovery quality, edge orientation accuracy, complete pathway discovery quality, and experimental cost. The results of this study show that some methods provide significant performance benefits over others and therefore should be routinely used for local causal pathway discovery tasks. This study also demonstrates the feasibility of local causal pathway reconstruction in real biological systems with significant quality and low experimental cost. PMID:26939894

  2. An Examination of Commercial Aviation Accidents and Incidents Related to Integrated Vehicle Health Management

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Reveley, Mary S.; Briggs, Jeffrey L.; Thomas, Megan A.; Evans, Joni K.; Jones, Sharon M.

    2011-01-01

    The Integrated Vehicle Health Management (IVHM) Project is one of the four projects within the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Aviation Safety Program (AvSafe). The IVHM Project conducts research to develop validated tools and technologies for automated detection, diagnosis, and prognosis that enable mitigation of adverse events during flight. Adverse events include those that arise from system, subsystem, or component failure, faults, and malfunctions due to damage, degradation, or environmental hazards that occur during flight. Determining the causal factors and adverse events related to IVHM technologies will help in the formulation of research requirements and establish a list of example adverse conditions against which IVHM technologies can be evaluated. This paper documents the results of an examination of the most recent statistical/prognostic accident and incident data that is available from the Aviation Safety Information Analysis and Sharing (ASIAS) System to determine the causal factors of system/component failures and/or malfunctions in U.S. commercial aviation accidents and incidents.

  3. A Complex Systems Approach to Causal Discovery in Psychiatry

    PubMed Central

    Saxe, Glenn N.; Statnikov, Alexander; Fenyo, David; Ren, Jiwen; Li, Zhiguo; Prasad, Meera; Wall, Dennis; Bergman, Nora; Briggs, Ernestine C.; Aliferis, Constantin

    2016-01-01

    Conventional research methodologies and data analytic approaches in psychiatric research are unable to reliably infer causal relations without experimental designs, or to make inferences about the functional properties of the complex systems in which psychiatric disorders are embedded. This article describes a series of studies to validate a novel hybrid computational approach–the Complex Systems-Causal Network (CS-CN) method–designed to integrate causal discovery within a complex systems framework for psychiatric research. The CS-CN method was first applied to an existing dataset on psychopathology in 163 children hospitalized with injuries (validation study). Next, it was applied to a much larger dataset of traumatized children (replication study). Finally, the CS-CN method was applied in a controlled experiment using a ‘gold standard’ dataset for causal discovery and compared with other methods for accurately detecting causal variables (resimulation controlled experiment). The CS-CN method successfully detected a causal network of 111 variables and 167 bivariate relations in the initial validation study. This causal network had well-defined adaptive properties and a set of variables was found that disproportionally contributed to these properties. Modeling the removal of these variables resulted in significant loss of adaptive properties. The CS-CN method was successfully applied in the replication study and performed better than traditional statistical methods, and similarly to state-of-the-art causal discovery algorithms in the causal detection experiment. The CS-CN method was validated, replicated, and yielded both novel and previously validated findings related to risk factors and potential treatments of psychiatric disorders. The novel approach yields both fine-grain (micro) and high-level (macro) insights and thus represents a promising approach for complex systems-oriented research in psychiatry. PMID:27028297

  4. Different Kinds of Causality in Event Cognition

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Radvansky, Gabriel A.; Tamplin, Andrea K.; Armendarez, Joseph; Thompson, Alexis N.

    2014-01-01

    Narrative memory is better for information that is more causally connected and occurs at event boundaries, such as a causal break. However, it is unclear whether there are common or distinct influences of causality. For the event boundaries that arise as a result of causal breaks, the events that follow may subsequently become more causally…

  5. Radiation accidents.

    PubMed

    Saenger, E L

    1986-09-01

    It is essential that emergency physicians understand ways to manage patients contaminated by radioactive materials and/or exposed to external radiation sources. Contamination accidents require careful surveys to identify the metabolic pathway of the radionuclides to guide prognosis and treatment. The level of treatment required will depend on careful surveys and meticulous decontamination. There is no specific therapy for the acute radiation syndrome. Prophylactic antibodies are desirable. For severely exposed patients treatment is similar to the supportive care given to patients undergoing organ transplantation. For high-dose extremity injury, no methods have been developed to reverse the fibrosing endarteritis that eventually leads to tissue death so frequently found with this type of injury. Although the Three Mile Island episode of March 1979 created tremendous public concern, there were no radiation injuries. The contamination outside the reactor building and the release of radioiodine were negligible. The accidental fuel element meltdown at Chernobyl, USSR, resulted in many cases of acute radiation syndrome. More than 100,000 people were exposed to high levels of radioactive fallout. The general principles outlined here are applicable to accidents of that degree of severity. PMID:3526994

  6. Radiation accidents

    SciTech Connect

    Saenger, E.L.

    1986-09-01

    It is essential that emergency physicians understand ways to manage patients contaminated by radioactive materials and/or exposed to external radiation sources. Contamination accidents require careful surveys to identify the metabolic pathway of the radionuclides to guide prognosis and treatment. The level of treatment required will depend on careful surveys and meticulous decontamination. There is no specific therapy for the acute radiation syndrome. Prophylactic antibodies are desirable. For severely exposed patients treatment is similar to the supportive care given to patients undergoing organ transplantation. For high-dose extremity injury, no methods have been developed to reverse the fibrosing endarteritis that eventually leads to tissue death so frequently found with this type of injury. Although the Three Mile Island episode of March 1979 created tremendous public concern, there were no radiation injuries. The contamination outside the reactor building and the release of radioiodine were negligible. The accidental fuel element meltdown at Chernobyl, USSR, resulted in many cases of acute radiation syndrome. More than 100,000 people were exposed to high levels of radioactive fallout. The general principles outlined here are applicable to accidents of that degree of severity.

  7. Causality in physiological signals.

    PubMed

    Müller, Andreas; Kraemer, Jan F; Penzel, Thomas; Bonnemeier, Hendrik; Kurths, Jürgen; Wessel, Niels

    2016-05-01

    Health is one of the most important non-material assets and thus also has an enormous influence on material values, since treating and preventing diseases is expensive. The number one cause of death worldwide today originates in cardiovascular diseases. For these reasons the aim of understanding the functions and the interactions of the cardiovascular system is and has been a major research topic throughout various disciplines for more than a hundred years. The purpose of most of today's research is to get as much information as possible with the lowest possible effort and the least discomfort for the subject or patient, e.g. via non-invasive measurements. A family of tools whose importance has been growing during the last years is known under the headline of coupling measures. The rationale for this kind of analysis is to identify the structure of interactions in a system of multiple components. Important information lies for example in the coupling direction, the coupling strength, and occurring time lags. In this work, we will, after a brief general introduction covering the development of cardiovascular time series analysis, introduce, explain and review some of the most important coupling measures and classify them according to their origin and capabilities in the light of physiological analyses. We will begin with classical correlation measures, go via Granger-causality-based tools, entropy-based techniques (e.g. momentary information transfer), nonlinear prediction measures (e.g. mutual prediction) to symbolic dynamics (e.g. symbolic coupling traces). All these methods have contributed important insights into physiological interactions like cardiorespiratory coupling, neuro-cardio-coupling and many more. Furthermore, we will cover tools to detect and analyze synchronization and coordination (e.g. synchrogram and coordigram). As a last point we will address time dependent couplings as identified using a recent approach employing ensembles of time series. The

  8. Retrospective self-reports of childhood accidents causing unconsciousness in phallometrically diagnosed pedophiles.

    PubMed

    Blanchard, Ray; Christensen, Bruce K; Strong, Scott M; Cantor, James M; Kuban, Michael E; Klassen, Philip; Dickey, Robert; Blak, Thomas

    2002-12-01

    The present study investigated whetherhead injuries in childhood might increase the risk of pedophilia in males. The subjects were 1206 patients referred to a clinical sexology service for assessment of their erotic preferences. These were classified, on the basis of phallometric test results, as pedophilic (n = 413) or nonpedophilic (n = 793). Information regarding early head injuries, other signs of possible neurodevelopmental problems, and parental histories of psychiatric treatment were collected with self-administered questionnaires. The results showed that childhood accidents that resulted in unconsciousness were associated with pedophilia and with lower levels of intelligence and education. These associations were statistically significant for accidents that occurred before the age of 6, but not for accidents that occurred between the ages of 6 and 12. These results are compatible with the hypothesis that neurodevelopmental perturbations in early childhood may increase the risk of pedophilia. They are also, however, compatible with the alternative explanation that prior neurodevelopmental problems lead to accident-proneness and head injury, on the one hand, and to pedophilia, on the other, and that head injury has no causal influence on pedophilia. A secondary finding was that the pedophiles were more likely to report that their mothers had undergone psychiatric treatment. This finding suggests that pedophilia may be influenced by genetic factors, which are manifested in women as an increased risk of psychiatric problems, and in their sons, as an increased risk of erotic interest in children. PMID:12462478

  9. Modeling secondary accidents identified by traffic shock waves.

    PubMed

    Junhua, Wang; Boya, Liu; Lanfang, Zhang; Ragland, David R

    2016-02-01

    The high potential for occurrence and the negative consequences of secondary accidents make them an issue of great concern affecting freeway safety. Using accident records from a three-year period together with California interstate freeway loop data, a dynamic method for more accurate classification based on the traffic shock wave detecting method was used to identify secondary accidents. Spatio-temporal gaps between the primary and secondary accident were proven be fit via a mixture of Weibull and normal distribution. A logistic regression model was developed to investigate major factors contributing to secondary accident occurrence. Traffic shock wave speed and volume at the occurrence of a primary accident were explicitly considered in the model, as a secondary accident is defined as an accident that occurs within the spatio-temporal impact scope of the primary accident. Results show that the shock waves originating in the wake of a primary accident have a more significant impact on the likelihood of a secondary accident occurrence than the effects of traffic volume. Primary accidents with long durations can significantly increase the possibility of secondary accidents. Unsafe speed and weather are other factors contributing to secondary crash occurrence. It is strongly suggested that when police or rescue personnel arrive at the scene of an accident, they should not suddenly block, decrease, or unblock the traffic flow, but instead endeavor to control traffic in a smooth and controlled manner. Also it is important to reduce accident processing time to reduce the risk of secondary accident. PMID:26687540

  10. Causal factors for seismicity near Azle, Texas

    PubMed Central

    Hornbach, Matthew J.; DeShon, Heather R.; Ellsworth, William L.; Stump, Brian W.; Hayward, Chris; Frohlich, Cliff; Oldham, Harrison R.; Olson, Jon E.; Magnani, M. Beatrice; Brokaw, Casey; Luetgert, James H.

    2015-01-01

    In November 2013, a series of earthquakes began along a mapped ancient fault system near Azle, Texas. Here we assess whether it is plausible that human activity caused these earthquakes. Analysis of both lake and groundwater variations near Azle shows that no significant stress changes were associated with the shallow water table before or during the earthquake sequence. In contrast, pore-pressure models demonstrate that a combination of brine production and wastewater injection near the fault generated subsurface pressures sufficient to induce earthquakes on near-critically stressed faults. On the basis of modelling results and the absence of historical earthquakes near Azle, brine production combined with wastewater disposal represent the most likely cause of recent seismicity near Azle. For assessing the earthquake cause, our research underscores the necessity of monitoring subsurface wastewater formation pressures and monitoring earthquakes having magnitudes of ∼M2 and greater. Currently, monitoring at these levels is not standard across Texas or the United States. PMID:25898170

  11. Causal factors for seismicity near Azle, Texas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hornbach, Matthew J.; Deshon, Heather R.; Ellsworth, William L.; Stump, Brian W.; Hayward, Chris; Frohlich, Cliff; Oldham, Harrison R.; Olson, Jon E.; Magnani, M. Beatrice; Brokaw, Casey; Luetgert, James H.

    2015-04-01

    In November 2013, a series of earthquakes began along a mapped ancient fault system near Azle, Texas. Here we assess whether it is plausible that human activity caused these earthquakes. Analysis of both lake and groundwater variations near Azle shows that no significant stress changes were associated with the shallow water table before or during the earthquake sequence. In contrast, pore-pressure models demonstrate that a combination of brine production and wastewater injection near the fault generated subsurface pressures sufficient to induce earthquakes on near-critically stressed faults. On the basis of modelling results and the absence of historical earthquakes near Azle, brine production combined with wastewater disposal represent the most likely cause of recent seismicity near Azle. For assessing the earthquake cause, our research underscores the necessity of monitoring subsurface wastewater formation pressures and monitoring earthquakes having magnitudes of ~M2 and greater. Currently, monitoring at these levels is not standard across Texas or the United States.

  12. Causal factors for seismicity near Azle, Texas.

    PubMed

    Hornbach, Matthew J; DeShon, Heather R; Ellsworth, William L; Stump, Brian W; Hayward, Chris; Frohlich, Cliff; Oldham, Harrison R; Olson, Jon E; Magnani, M Beatrice; Brokaw, Casey; Luetgert, James H

    2015-01-01

    In November 2013, a series of earthquakes began along a mapped ancient fault system near Azle, Texas. Here we assess whether it is plausible that human activity caused these earthquakes. Analysis of both lake and groundwater variations near Azle shows that no significant stress changes were associated with the shallow water table before or during the earthquake sequence. In contrast, pore-pressure models demonstrate that a combination of brine production and wastewater injection near the fault generated subsurface pressures sufficient to induce earthquakes on near-critically stressed faults. On the basis of modelling results and the absence of historical earthquakes near Azle, brine production combined with wastewater disposal represent the most likely cause of recent seismicity near Azle. For assessing the earthquake cause, our research underscores the necessity of monitoring subsurface wastewater formation pressures and monitoring earthquakes having magnitudes of ∼M2 and greater. Currently, monitoring at these levels is not standard across Texas or the United States. PMID:25898170

  13. Preliminary Analysis of Aircraft Loss of Control Accidents: Worst Case Precursor Combinations and Temporal Sequencing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Belcastro, Christine M.; Groff, Loren; Newman, Richard L.; Foster, John V.; Crider, Dennis H.; Klyde, David H.; Huston, A. McCall

    2014-01-01

    Aircraft loss of control (LOC) is a leading cause of fatal accidents across all transport airplane and operational classes, and can result from a wide spectrum of hazards, often occurring in combination. Technologies developed for LOC prevention and recovery must therefore be effective under a wide variety of conditions and uncertainties, including multiple hazards, and their validation must provide a means of assessing system effectiveness and coverage of these hazards. This requires the definition of a comprehensive set of LOC test scenarios based on accident and incident data as well as future risks. This paper defines a comprehensive set of accidents and incidents over a recent 15 year period, and presents preliminary analysis results to identify worst-case combinations of causal and contributing factors (i.e., accident precursors) and how they sequence in time. Such analyses can provide insight in developing effective solutions for LOC, and form the basis for developing test scenarios that can be used in evaluating them. Preliminary findings based on the results of this paper indicate that system failures or malfunctions, crew actions or inactions, vehicle impairment conditions, and vehicle upsets contributed the most to accidents and fatalities, followed by inclement weather or atmospheric disturbances and poor visibility. Follow-on research will include finalizing the analysis through a team consensus process, defining future risks, and developing a comprehensive set of test scenarios with correlation to the accidents, incidents, and future risks. Since enhanced engineering simulations are required for batch and piloted evaluations under realistic LOC precursor conditions, these test scenarios can also serve as a high-level requirement for defining the engineering simulation enhancements needed for generating them.

  14. Causal reasoning with mental models

    PubMed Central

    Khemlani, Sangeet S.; Barbey, Aron K.; Johnson-Laird, Philip N.

    2014-01-01

    This paper outlines the model-based theory of causal reasoning. It postulates that the core meanings of causal assertions are deterministic and refer to temporally-ordered sets of possibilities: A causes B to occur means that given A, B occurs, whereas A enables B to occur means that given A, it is possible for B to occur. The paper shows how mental models represent such assertions, and how these models underlie deductive, inductive, and abductive reasoning yielding explanations. It reviews evidence both to corroborate the theory and to account for phenomena sometimes taken to be incompatible with it. Finally, it reviews neuroscience evidence indicating that mental models for causal inference are implemented within lateral prefrontal cortex. PMID:25389398

  15. Causal reasoning with mental models.

    PubMed

    Khemlani, Sangeet S; Barbey, Aron K; Johnson-Laird, Philip N

    2014-01-01

    This paper outlines the model-based theory of causal reasoning. It postulates that the core meanings of causal assertions are deterministic and refer to temporally-ordered sets of possibilities: A causes B to occur means that given A, B occurs, whereas A enables B to occur means that given A, it is possible for B to occur. The paper shows how mental models represent such assertions, and how these models underlie deductive, inductive, and abductive reasoning yielding explanations. It reviews evidence both to corroborate the theory and to account for phenomena sometimes taken to be incompatible with it. Finally, it reviews neuroscience evidence indicating that mental models for causal inference are implemented within lateral prefrontal cortex. PMID:25389398

  16. Fluctuations in relativistic causal hydrodynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kumar, Avdhesh; Bhatt, Jitesh R.; Mishra, Ananta P.

    2014-05-01

    Formalism to calculate the hydrodynamic fluctuations by applying the Onsager theory to the relativistic Navier-Stokes equation is already known. In this work, we calculate hydrodynamic fluctuations within the framework of the second order hydrodynamics of Müller, Israel and Stewart and its generalization to the third order. We have also calculated the fluctuations for several other causal hydrodynamical equations. We show that the form for the Onsager-coefficients and form of the correlation functions remain the same as those obtained by the relativistic Navier-Stokes equation and do not depend on any specific model of hydrodynamics. Further we numerically investigate evolution of the correlation function using the one dimensional boost-invariant (Bjorken) flow. We compare the correlation functions obtained using the causal hydrodynamics with the correlation function for the relativistic Navier-Stokes equation. We find that the qualitative behavior of the correlation functions remains the same for all the models of the causal hydrodynamics.

  17. Causal inference from observational data.

    PubMed

    Listl, Stefan; Jürges, Hendrik; Watt, Richard G

    2016-10-01

    Randomized controlled trials have long been considered the 'gold standard' for causal inference in clinical research. In the absence of randomized experiments, identification of reliable intervention points to improve oral health is often perceived as a challenge. But other fields of science, such as social science, have always been challenged by ethical constraints to conducting randomized controlled trials. Methods have been established to make causal inference using observational data, and these methods are becoming increasingly relevant in clinical medicine, health policy and public health research. This study provides an overview of state-of-the-art methods specifically designed for causal inference in observational data, including difference-in-differences (DiD) analyses, instrumental variables (IV), regression discontinuity designs (RDD) and fixed-effects panel data analysis. The described methods may be particularly useful in dental research, not least because of the increasing availability of routinely collected administrative data and electronic health records ('big data'). PMID:27111146

  18. Wormholes, baby universes, and causality

    SciTech Connect

    Visser, M. )

    1990-02-15

    In this paper wormholes defined on a Minkowski signature manifold are considered, both at the classical and quantum levels. It is argued that causality in quantum gravity may best be imposed by restricting the functional integral to include only causal Lorentzian spacetimes. Subject to this assumption, one can put very tight constraints on the quantum behavior of wormholes, their cousins the baby universes, and topology-changing processes in general. Even though topology-changing processes are tightly constrained, this still allows very interesting geometrical (rather than topological) effects. In particular, the laboratory construction of baby universes is {ital not} prohibited provided that the umbilical cord'' is never cut. Methods for relaxing these causality constraints are also discussed.

  19. Reasoning about Causal Relationships: Inferences on Causal Networks

    PubMed Central

    Rottman, Benjamin Margolin; Hastie, Reid

    2013-01-01

    Over the last decade, a normative framework for making causal inferences, Bayesian Probabilistic Causal Networks, has come to dominate psychological studies of inference based on causal relationships. The following causal networks—[X→Y→Z, X←Y→Z, X→Y←Z]—supply answers for questions like, “Suppose both X and Y occur, what is the probability Z occurs?” or “Suppose you intervene and make Y occur, what is the probability Z occurs?” In this review, we provide a tutorial for how normatively to calculate these inferences. Then, we systematically detail the results of behavioral studies comparing human qualitative and quantitative judgments to the normative calculations for many network structures and for several types of inferences on those networks. Overall, when the normative calculations imply that an inference should increase, judgments usually go up; when calculations imply a decrease, judgments usually go down. However, two systematic deviations appear. First, people’s inferences violate the Markov assumption. For example, when inferring Z from the structure X→Y→Z, people think that X is relevant even when Y completely mediates the relationship between X and Z. Second, even when people’s inferences are directionally consistent with the normative calculations, they are often not as sensitive to the parameters and the structure of the network as they should be. We conclude with a discussion of productive directions for future research. PMID:23544658

  20. Organisational accidents investigation methodology and lessons learned.

    PubMed

    Dien, Yves; Llory, Michel; Montmayeul, René

    2004-07-26

    The purpose of this paper is to reflect on accident analysis methods. As the understanding of industrial accidents and incidents has evolved, they are no longer considered as the sole product of human and/or technical failures but also as originating in an unfavourable organisational context. After presenting some theoretical developments which are responsible for this evolution, we will propose two examples of organisational accidents and incidents. We will then present some properties of organisational accidents, and we will focus on some "accident-generating" organisational factors. The definition of these factors comes from an empirical approach to event analysis. Finally, we will briefly present their implications for accident and incident analysis. PMID:15231360

  1. Psychological aspects of risk appraisal in asphyxiation accidents: a review of the factors influencing children’s perception and behaviour

    PubMed Central

    Zigon, G; Corradetti, R; Morra, B; Snidero, S; Gregori, D; Passali, D

    2005-01-01

    Summary Psychological aspects determining children’s behaviour in response to asphyxiation risk due to ingestion of foreign matter have been rarely and non-systematically examined in the literature. Aim of this report is to highlight – through a review of the most significant psychological research in the literature – which factors influence the behaviour, perception and assessments of children 0 to 14 years of age, in a risk situation. In particular, attention is focused on the direct experience of a child at risk, assuming that this experience can play a significant role in future dangerous situations. Outcomes of studies taken into consideration have highlighted the influence of age, sex, socio-economic status, parents’ role, peer group, personal traits, television and personal experience. The latter refutes the initial hypotheses, showing an unexpected and clearly negative effect on future evaluation and behaviour in response to similar contexts of asphyxiation risk. The implications for research on asphyxiation due to ingestion of foreign matter are examined. PMID:16116832

  2. Underreporting of maritime accidents to vessel accident databases.

    PubMed

    Hassel, Martin; Asbjørnslett, Bjørn Egil; Hole, Lars Petter

    2011-11-01

    Underreporting of maritime accidents is a problem not only for authorities trying to improve maritime safety through legislation, but also to risk management companies and other entities using maritime casualty statistics in risk and accident analysis. This study collected and compared casualty data from 01.01.2005 to 31.12.2009, from IHS Fairplay and the maritime authorities from a set of nations. The data was compared to find common records, and estimation of the true number of occurred accidents was performed using conditional probability given positive dependency between data sources, several variations of the capture-recapture method, calculation of best case scenario assuming perfect reporting, and scaling up a subset of casualty information from a marine insurance statistics database. The estimated upper limit reporting performance for the selected flag states ranged from 14% to 74%, while the corresponding estimated coverage of IHS Fairplay ranges from 4% to 62%. On average the study results document that the number of unreported accidents makes up roughly 50% of all occurred accidents. Even in a best case scenario, only a few flag states come close to perfect reporting (94%). The considerable scope of underreporting uncovered in the study, indicates that users of statistical vessel accident data should assume a certain degree of underreporting, and adjust their analyses accordingly. Whether to use correction factors, a safety margin, or rely on expert judgment, should be decided on a case by case basis. PMID:21819835

  3. Hindsight bias and causal reasoning: a minimalist approach.

    PubMed

    Yopchick, Jennelle E; Kim, Nancy S

    2012-02-01

    What factors contribute to hindsight bias, the phenomenon whereby the known outcome of an event appears obvious only after the fact? The Causal Model Theory (CMT) of hindsight bias (Nestler et al. in Soc Psychol 39:182-188, 2008a; in J Expl Psychol: Learn Mem Cog 34:1043-1054, 2008b; Pezzo in Mem 11:421-441, 2003; Wasserman et al. in Pers Soc Psychol Bull 17:30-35, 1991) posits that hindsight bias can occur when people have the opportunity to identify potential causal antecedents and evaluate whether they could have led to the outcome. Two experiments incorporating highly controlled minimalist scenarios supported the CMT. As predicted by the CMT, hindsight bias occurred when the causal factor explained the actual outcome better than the alternative outcome, and reverse hindsight bias occurred when the causal factor explained the alternative outcome better than the actual outcome. Moreover, we found new evidence that outcome knowledge alone was insufficient to elicit hindsight bias in the absence of a potential causal antecedent. Implications for future directions in hindsight bias research are discussed. PMID:21912981

  4. Noise as an explanatory factor in work-related fatality reports

    PubMed Central

    Deshaies, Pierre; Martin, Richard; Belzile, Danny; Fortier, Pauline; Laroche, Chantal; Leroux, Tony; Nélisse, Hugues; Girard, Serge-André; Arcand, Robert; Poulin, Maurice; Picard, Michel

    2015-01-01

    Noise exposure in the workplace is a common reality in Québec, Canada as it is elsewhere. However, the extent to which noise acts as a causal or contributive factor in industrial work-related accidents has not been studied thoroughly despite its plausibility. This article aims to describe the importance or potential importance, during investigations looking into the specific causes of each work-related fatal accident, of noise as an explanatory factor. The written information contained in the accident reports pertaining to contextual and technical elements were used. The study used multiple case qualitative content analysis. This descriptive study was based on the content analysis of the 788 reports from the Commission de la santé et de la sécurité du travail du Québec [Workers’ Compensation Board (WCB)] investigating the fatal work-related accidents between 1990 and 2005. The study was descriptive (number and percentages). Noise was explicitly stated as one of the explanatory factors for the fatal outcome in 2.2% (17/788) of the fatal accidents, particularly when the work involved vehicular movement or the need to communicate between workers. Noise was not typically considered a unique cause in the accident, notably because the investigators considered that the accident would have probably occurred due to other risk factors (for example, disregard of safety rules, shortcomings in work methods, and inadequate training). Noise is an important risk factor when communication is involved in work. Since noise is ubiquitous and may also interfere with vigilance and other risk factors for accidents, it may be a much more important contributing factor to accidents than is currently recognized. PMID:26356371

  5. Noise as an explanatory factor in work-related fatality reports.

    PubMed

    Deshaies, Pierre; Martin, Richard; Belzile, Danny; Fortier, Pauline; Laroche, Chantal; Leroux, Tony; Nélisse, Hugues; Girard, Serge-André; Arcand, Robert; Poulin, Maurice; Picard, Michel

    2015-01-01

    Noise exposure in the workplace is a common reality in Québec, Canada as it is elsewhere. However, the extent to which noise acts as a causal or contributive factor in industrial work-related accidents has not been studied thoroughly despite its plausibility. This article aims to describe the importance or potential importance, during investigations looking into the specific causes of each work-related fatal accident, of noise as an explanatory factor. The written information contained in the accident reports pertaining to contextual and technical elements were used. The study used multiple case qualitative content analysis. This descriptive study was based on the content analysis of the 788 reports from the Commission de la santé et de la sécurité du travail du Québec [Workers' Compensation Board (WCB)] investigating the fatal work-related accidents between 1990 and 2005. The study was descriptive (number and percentages). Noise was explicitly stated as one of the explanatory factors for the fatal outcome in 2.2% (17/788) of the fatal accidents, particularly when the work involved vehicular movement or the need to communicate between workers. Noise was not typically considered a unique cause in the accident, notably because the investigators considered that the accident would have probably occurred due to other risk factors (for example, disregard of safety rules, shortcomings in work methods, and inadequate training). Noise is an important risk factor when communication is involved in work. Since noise is ubiquitous and may also interfere with vigilance and other risk factors for accidents, it may be a much more important contributing factor to accidents than is currently recognized. PMID:26356371

  6. Causal Models of Literacy Acquisition.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Goetz, Ernest T.; And Others

    1992-01-01

    Examines seven articles that employed path analysis to test causal models of the acquisition of literacy or the reading-writing relationship. Reveals that, although such analysis holds promise for a better understanding of the components of literacy, several potential difficulties remain for those attempting to synthesize this body of literature.…

  7. Learning a Theory of Causality

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Goodman, Noah D.; Ullman, Tomer D.; Tenenbaum, Joshua B.

    2011-01-01

    The very early appearance of abstract knowledge is often taken as evidence for innateness. We explore the relative learning speeds of abstract and specific knowledge within a Bayesian framework and the role for innate structure. We focus on knowledge about causality, seen as a domain-general intuitive theory, and ask whether this knowledge can be…

  8. Causality attribution biases oculomotor responses.

    PubMed

    Badler, Jeremy; Lefèvre, Philippe; Missal, Marcus

    2010-08-01

    When viewing one object move after being struck by another, humans perceive that the action of the first object "caused" the motion of the second, not that the two events occurred independently. Although established as a perceptual and linguistic concept, it is not yet known whether the notion of causality exists as a fundamental, preattentional "Gestalt" that can influence predictive motor processes. Therefore, eye movements of human observers were measured while viewing a display in which a launcher impacted a tool to trigger the motion of a second "reaction" target. The reaction target could move either in the direction predicted by transfer of momentum after the collision ("causal") or in a different direction ("noncausal"), with equal probability. Control trials were also performed with identical target motion, either with a 100 ms time delay between the collision and reactive motion, or without the interposed tool. Subjects made significantly more predictive movements (smooth pursuit and saccades) in the causal direction during standard trials, and smooth pursuit latencies were also shorter overall. These trends were reduced or absent in control trials. In addition, pursuit latencies in the noncausal direction were longer during standard trials than during control trials. The results show that causal context has a strong influence on predictive movements. PMID:20685994

  9. Granger causality and Atlantic hurricanes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Elsner, James B.

    2007-08-01

    Atlantic tropical cyclones have been getting stronger recently with a trend that is related to an increase in the late summer/early fall sea-surface temperature over the North Atlantic. Some studies attribute the increasing ocean warmth and hurricane intensity to a natural climate fluctuation, known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation; others suggest that climate change related to anthropogenic greenhouse gases emissions is the cause. Noting that the only difference between these two hypotheses is the causal connection between global mean near-surface air temperature (GT) and Atlantic sea-surface temperature (SST), the author previously showed how to use statistical tests to examine this hypothesis. Here the author expands on this research. In particular, a more comprehensive explanation of the techniques and additional tests and checks against misspecification are provided. The earlier results are confirmed in showing that preceding GT anomalies have a significant statistical relationship to current SST anomalies but not conversely so that if causality exists between Atlantic SST and global temperature, the causal direction likely goes from GT to SST. The result is robust against a small amount of noise added to the data. Identical tests applied to surrogate time series fail to identify causality as expected. The work underscores the importance of using data models to understand relationships between hurricanes and climate.

  10. Causal Inference for a Population of Causally Connected Units

    PubMed Central

    van der Laan, Mark J.

    2015-01-01

    Suppose that we observe a population of causally connected units. On each unit at each time-point on a grid we observe a set of other units the unit is potentially connected with, and a unit-specific longitudinal data structure consisting of baseline and time-dependent covariates, a time-dependent treatment, and a final outcome of interest. The target quantity of interest is defined as the mean outcome for this group of units if the exposures of the units would be probabilistically assigned according to a known specified mechanism, where the latter is called a stochastic intervention. Causal effects of interest are defined as contrasts of the mean of the unit-specific outcomes under different stochastic interventions one wishes to evaluate. This covers a large range of estimation problems from independent units, independent clusters of units, and a single cluster of units in which each unit has a limited number of connections to other units. The allowed dependence includes treatment allocation in response to data on multiple units and so called causal interference as special cases. We present a few motivating classes of examples, propose a structural causal model, define the desired causal quantities, address the identification of these quantities from the observed data, and define maximum likelihood based estimators based on cross-validation. In particular, we present maximum likelihood based super-learning for this network data. Nonetheless, such smoothed/regularized maximum likelihood estimators are not targeted and will thereby be overly bias w.r.t. the target parameter, and, as a consequence, generally not result in asymptotically normally distributed estimators of the statistical target parameter. To formally develop estimation theory, we focus on the simpler case in which the longitudinal data structure is a point-treatment data structure. We formulate a novel targeted maximum likelihood estimator of this estimand and show that the double robustness of the

  11. Are bruxism and the bite causally related?

    PubMed

    Lobbezoo, F; Ahlberg, J; Manfredini, D; Winocur, E

    2012-07-01

    In the dental profession, the belief that bruxism and dental (mal-)occlusion ('the bite') are causally related is widespread. The aim of this review was to critically assess the available literature on this topic. A PubMed search of the English-language literature, using the query 'Bruxism [Majr] AND (Dental Occlusion [Majr] OR Malocclusion [Majr])', yielded 93 articles, of which 46 papers were finally included in the present review*. Part of the included publications dealt with the possible associations between bruxism and aspects of occlusion, from which it was concluded that neither for occlusal interferences nor for factors related to the anatomy of the oro-facial skeleton, there is any evidence available that they are involved in the aetiology of bruxism. Instead, there is a growing awareness of other factors (viz. psychosocial and behavioural ones) being important in the aetiology of bruxism. Another part of the included papers assessed the possible mediating role of occlusion between bruxism and its purported consequences (e.g. tooth wear, loss of periodontal tissues, and temporomandibular pain and dysfunction). Even though most dentists agree that bruxism may have several adverse effects on the masticatory system, for none of these purported adverse effects, evidence for a mediating role of occlusion and articulation has been found to date. Hence, based on this review, it should be concluded that to date, there is no evidence whatsoever for a causal relationship between bruxism and the bite. PMID:22489928

  12. Analysing connectivity with Granger causality and dynamic causal modelling

    PubMed Central

    Friston, Karl; Moran, Rosalyn; Seth, Anil K

    2013-01-01

    This review considers state-of-the-art analyses of functional integration in neuronal macrocircuits. We focus on detecting and estimating directed connectivity in neuronal networks using Granger causality (GC) and dynamic causal modelling (DCM). These approaches are considered in the context of functional segregation and integration and — within functional integration — the distinction between functional and effective connectivity. We review recent developments that have enjoyed a rapid uptake in the discovery and quantification of functional brain architectures. GC and DCM have distinct and complementary ambitions that are usefully considered in relation to the detection of functional connectivity and the identification of models of effective connectivity. We highlight the basic ideas upon which they are grounded, provide a comparative evaluation and point to some outstanding issues. PMID:23265964

  13. Relating Granger causality to long-term causal effects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smirnov, Dmitry A.; Mokhov, Igor I.

    2015-10-01

    In estimation of causal couplings between observed processes, it is important to characterize coupling roles at various time scales. The widely used Granger causality reflects short-term effects: it shows how strongly perturbations of a current state of one process affect near future states of another process, and it quantifies that via prediction improvement (PI) in autoregressive models. However, it is often more important to evaluate the effects of coupling on long-term statistics, e.g., to find out how strongly the presence of coupling changes the variance of a driven process as compared to an uncoupled case. No general relationships between Granger causality and such long-term effects are known. Here, we pose the problem of relating these two types of coupling characteristics, and we solve it for a class of stochastic systems. Namely, for overdamped linear oscillators, we rigorously derive that the above long-term effect is proportional to the short-term effects, with the proportionality coefficient depending on the prediction interval and relaxation times. We reveal that this coefficient is typically considerably greater than unity so that small normalized PI values may well correspond to quite large long-term effects of coupling. The applicability of the derived relationship to wider classes of systems, its limitations, and its value for further research are discussed. To give a real-world example, we analyze couplings between large-scale climatic processes related to sea surface temperature variations in equatorial Pacific and North Atlantic regions.

  14. Traffic accidents, facial injuries, and psychiatry.

    PubMed

    Berger, J C

    1975-01-01

    The extent to which emotional factors play a direct or indirect role in the causation of traffic accidents has been presented along with the early and late emotional response of individuals to facial injuries as a result of traffic accidents. Illustrated case histories are presented. PMID:1116323

  15. Normal Accident at Three Mile Island.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Perrow, Charles

    1981-01-01

    Discusses some aspects of the accident at the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant. Explains a number of factors involved including the type of accident, warnings, design and equipment failure, operator error, and negative synergy. Presents alternatives to systems with catastrophic potential. (MK)

  16. Expectations and Interpretations During Causal Learning

    PubMed Central

    Luhmann, Christian C.; Ahn, Woo-kyoung

    2012-01-01

    In existing models of causal induction, 4 types of covariation information (i.e., presence/absence of an event followed by presence/absence of another event) always exert identical influences on causal strength judgments (e.g., joint presence of events always suggests a generative causal relationship). In contrast, we suggest that, due to expectations developed during causal learning, learners give varied interpretations to covariation information as it is encountered and that these interpretations influence the resulting causal beliefs. In Experiments 1A–1C, participants’ interpretations of observations during a causal learning task were dynamic, expectation based, and, furthermore, strongly tied to subsequent causal judgments. Experiment 2 demonstrated that adding trials of joint absence or joint presence of events, whose roles have been traditionally interpreted as increasing causal strengths, could result in decreased overall causal judgments and that adding trials where one event occurs in the absence of another, whose roles have been traditionally interpreted as decreasing causal strengths, could result in increased overall causal judgments. We discuss implications for traditional models of causal learning and how a more top-down approach (e.g., Bayesian) would be more compatible with the current findings. PMID:21534705

  17. Constraints on Children's Judgments of Magical Causality

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Woolley, Jacqueline D.; Browne, Cheryl A.; Boerger, Elizabeth A.

    2006-01-01

    In 3 studies we addressed the operation of constraints on children's causal judgments. Our primary focus was whether children's beliefs about magical causality, specifically wishing, are constrained by features that govern the attribution of ordinary causality. In Experiment 1, children witnessed situations in which a confederate's wish appeared…

  18. Designing Effective Supports for Causal Reasoning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jonassen, David H.; Ionas, Ioan Gelu

    2008-01-01

    Causal reasoning represents one of the most basic and important cognitive processes that underpin all higher-order activities, such as conceptual understanding and problem solving. Hume called causality the "cement of the universe" [Hume (1739/2000). Causal reasoning is required for making predictions, drawing implications and inferences, and…

  19. Representing Personal Determinants in Causal Structures.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bandura, Albert

    1984-01-01

    Responds to Staddon's critique of the author's earlier article and addresses issues raised by Staddon's (1984) alternative models of causality. The author argues that it is not the formalizability of causal processes that is the issue but whether cognitive determinants of behavior are reducible to past stimulus inputs in causal structures.…

  20. Expectations and Interpretations during Causal Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Luhmann, Christian C.; Ahn, Woo-kyoung

    2011-01-01

    In existing models of causal induction, 4 types of covariation information (i.e., presence/absence of an event followed by presence/absence of another event) always exert identical influences on causal strength judgments (e.g., joint presence of events always suggests a generative causal relationship). In contrast, we suggest that, due to…

  1. Does Causal Action Facilitate Causal Perception in Infants Younger than 6 Months of Age?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rakison, David H.; Krogh, Lauren

    2012-01-01

    Previous research has established that infants are unable to perceive causality until 6 1/4 months of age. The current experiments examined whether infants' ability to engage in causal action could facilitate causal perception prior to this age. In Experiment 1, 4 1/2-month-olds were randomly assigned to engage in causal action experience via…

  2. Modeling of causality with metamaterials

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smolyaninov, Igor I.

    2013-02-01

    Hyperbolic metamaterials may be used to model a 2 + 1-dimensional Minkowski space-time in which the role of time is played by one of the spatial coordinates. When a metamaterial is built and illuminated with a coherent extraordinary laser beam, the stationary pattern of light propagation inside the metamaterial may be treated as a collection of particle world lines, which represents a complete ‘history’ of this 2 + 1-dimensional space-time. While this model may be used to build interesting space-time analogs, such as metamaterial ‘black holes’ and a metamaterial ‘big bang’, it lacks causality: since light inside the metamaterial may propagate back and forth along the ‘timelike’ spatial coordinate, events in the ‘future’ may affect events in the ‘past’. Here we demonstrate that a more sophisticated metamaterial model may fix this deficiency via breaking the mirror and temporal (PT) symmetries of the original model and producing one-way propagation along the ‘timelike’ spatial coordinate. The resulting 2 + 1-dimensional Minkowski space-time appears to be causal. This scenario may be considered as a metamaterial model of the Wheeler-Feynman absorber theory of causality.

  3. Causal Attributions and Recovery from Rape: Implications for Counseling.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Frazier, Patricia A.; Schauben, Laura J.

    One factor related to postrape trauma is the survivor's belief about the cause of the rape. Most research to date on the relation between causal attributions and postrape recovery has been guided by a theoretical model which proposes that certain types of self-blame can be adaptive for survivors. Specifically, behavioral self-blame is thought to…

  4. Development and Coherence of Beliefs Regarding Disease Causality and Prevention

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sigelman, Carol K.

    2014-01-01

    Guided by a naïve theories perspective on the development of thinking about disease, this study of 188 children aged 6 to 18 examined knowledge of HIV/AIDS causality and prevention using parallel measures derived from open-ended and structured interviews. Knowledge of both risk factors and prevention rules, as well as conceptual understanding of…

  5. Important factors governing exposure of the population and countermeasure application in rural settlements of the Russian Federation in the long-term after the Chernobyl accident.

    PubMed

    Fesenko, S; Jacob, P; Alexakhin, R; Sanzharova, N I; Panov, A; Fesenko, G; Cecille, L

    2001-01-01

    Rural settlements located in areas of the Russian Federation contaminated after the Chernobyl accident and exceeding an annual dose of 1 mSv a-1 have been classified according to 137Cs contamination density, internal dose and the neighbourhood of forests. It has been shown that, with the exception of the most contaminated areas, the internal doses decreased in accordance with a decline in 137Cs availability for plant root uptake. An inverse tendency was observed in areas with 137Cs contamination above 555 kBq m-2 which can be explained by a reduction or even termination of countermeasure application and by an increasing consumption of forest products in areas where restrictive countermeasures are still implemented. Twenty-seven settlements have been studied to estimate the effectiveness of countermeasures applied previously and to identify the most important factors governing the radiation exposure to the population and its change with time. It has been shown that the effectiveness of countermeasures which resulted in a decrease of up to 40% of doses has a tendency to decline in the long term. The need for continuation of remediation in rural settlements was evaluated both for selected settlements and extrapolated to the whole contaminated area and it has been shown that the application of countermeasures will be of importance at least up to the year 2045. Rather high effectiveness in terms of internal dose reduction (factor of 2-2.5) of radical improvement (disking, ploughing and reseeding) and administration of Cs binders to animals (Ferrocyn) was demonstrated for the selected settlements. It could be demonstrated that for forest-remote settlements there is a linear dependence between internal dose normalised to the density of contamination and the proportion of peat soils around settlements. For near-forest settlements, this dependence was less pronounced which can be explained by the high contribution of forest food products to the internal dose. Milk is still

  6. A Naturalistic Study of the Production of Causal Connectives by Children.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McCabe, Allyssa; Peterson, Carole

    1985-01-01

    Describes a study that analyzes the naturalistic productions of "because" and "so" by 96 children, aged three-and-a-half to nine-and-a-half years of age, while narrating personal events. Analyzes results in terms of such factors as: correctness, types of causality, nature of actor/recipient, time of causality, producer, and linguistic issues. (SED)

  7. The Collider Principle in Causal Reasoning: Why the Monty Hall Dilemma Is So Hard

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Burns, Bruce D.; Wieth, Mareike

    2004-01-01

    The authors tested the thesis that people find the Monty Hall dilemma (MHD) hard because they fail to understand the implications of its causal structure, a collider structure in which 2 independent causal factors influence a single outcome. In 4 experiments, participants performed better in versions of the MHD involving competition, which…

  8. Targeted maximum likelihood based causal inference: Part I.

    PubMed

    van der Laan, Mark J

    2010-01-01

    Given causal graph assumptions, intervention-specific counterfactual distributions of the data can be defined by the so called G-computation formula, which is obtained by carrying out these interventions on the likelihood of the data factorized according to the causal graph. The obtained G-computation formula represents the counterfactual distribution the data would have had if this intervention would have been enforced on the system generating the data. A causal effect of interest can now be defined as some difference between these counterfactual distributions indexed by different interventions. For example, the interventions can represent static treatment regimens or individualized treatment rules that assign treatment in response to time-dependent covariates, and the causal effects could be defined in terms of features of the mean of the treatment-regimen specific counterfactual outcome of interest as a function of the corresponding treatment regimens. Such features could be defined nonparametrically in terms of so called (nonparametric) marginal structural models for static or individualized treatment rules, whose parameters can be thought of as (smooth) summary measures of differences between the treatment regimen specific counterfactual distributions. In this article, we develop a particular targeted maximum likelihood estimator of causal effects of multiple time point interventions. This involves the use of loss-based super-learning to obtain an initial estimate of the unknown factors of the G-computation formula, and subsequently, applying a target-parameter specific optimal fluctuation function (least favorable parametric submodel) to each estimated factor, estimating the fluctuation parameter(s) with maximum likelihood estimation, and iterating this updating step of the initial factor till convergence. This iterative targeted maximum likelihood updating step makes the resulting estimator of the causal effect double robust in the sense that it is

  9. Targeted Maximum Likelihood Based Causal Inference: Part I

    PubMed Central

    van der Laan, Mark J.

    2010-01-01

    Given causal graph assumptions, intervention-specific counterfactual distributions of the data can be defined by the so called G-computation formula, which is obtained by carrying out these interventions on the likelihood of the data factorized according to the causal graph. The obtained G-computation formula represents the counterfactual distribution the data would have had if this intervention would have been enforced on the system generating the data. A causal effect of interest can now be defined as some difference between these counterfactual distributions indexed by different interventions. For example, the interventions can represent static treatment regimens or individualized treatment rules that assign treatment in response to time-dependent covariates, and the causal effects could be defined in terms of features of the mean of the treatment-regimen specific counterfactual outcome of interest as a function of the corresponding treatment regimens. Such features could be defined nonparametrically in terms of so called (nonparametric) marginal structural models for static or individualized treatment rules, whose parameters can be thought of as (smooth) summary measures of differences between the treatment regimen specific counterfactual distributions. In this article, we develop a particular targeted maximum likelihood estimator of causal effects of multiple time point interventions. This involves the use of loss-based super-learning to obtain an initial estimate of the unknown factors of the G-computation formula, and subsequently, applying a target-parameter specific optimal fluctuation function (least favorable parametric submodel) to each estimated factor, estimating the fluctuation parameter(s) with maximum likelihood estimation, and iterating this updating step of the initial factor till convergence. This iterative targeted maximum likelihood updating step makes the resulting estimator of the causal effect double robust in the sense that it is

  10. Catalog of PRA dominant accident sequence information

    SciTech Connect

    Cathey, N.G.; Krantz, E.A.; Poloski, J.P.; Shapiro, B.J.

    1985-07-01

    Information concerning the dominant accident sequences from twelve published probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) is cataloged in this report, which is published as a part of the Accident Sequence Evaluation Program (ASEP). The purpose of this report is to provide users of PRA information a single reference document. The cataloged results include plant operation information, core-melt frequency, event tree models, dominant factors affecting core-melt and sequence frequencies, and a description of each dominant accident sequence. The report provides a consistent set of insights on the factors that drive the dominant accident sequences. ASEP has reconstructed the PRA fault tree models at the system or train level of detail and requantified the sequence likelihoods to provide the consistent insights. This work provides the information for the other ASEP activities on accident likelihood assessment for the operating and near-term operating plants.

  11. Ethnic differences in accident rates at work.

    PubMed Central

    Baker, C C

    1987-01-01

    The accidents at work of 4482 employees in a car engine machining and assembly plant in south east England were studied retrospectively over a 12 month period. The study population was composed of Asian (22%), white (66%), and West Indian employees (12%). The crude accident rates differed among the groups, the means being Asians 1.58, white 1.23, and West Indians 1.28. There was, however, no consistent ethnic difference after adjustment for other factors such as age, type of job, and duration of service. Accident rates were higher in those employees who were younger, newly employed, and in production jobs. The findings of this research imply that accident prevention programmes should be directed to those factors known to relate to accidents and not to any specific ethnic group. PMID:3828246

  12. Pilot-error accidents: male vs female.

    PubMed

    Vail, G J; Ekman, L G

    1986-12-01

    In this study, general aviation accident records from the files of the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB), have been analysed by gender to observe the number and rate of pilot-error related accidents from 1972 to 1981 inclusive. If both females and males have no difference in performance, then data would have indicated similarities of accident rates and types of injuries. Males had a higher rate of accidents than females, and a higher portion of the male accidents resulted in fatalities or serious injuries than for females. Type of certificate, age, total flight time, flight time in type of aircraft, phase of operation, category of flying, degree of injury, specific cause factors, cause factor miscellaneous acts/conditions were analysed, taking the total number of United States Active Civilian General Aviation Pilots into consideration. The data did indicate a difference in all variables. PMID:15676598

  13. Potassium iodide for thyroid blockade in a reactor accident: administrative policies that govern its use.

    PubMed

    Becker, D V; Zanzonico, P

    1997-04-01

    A marked increase in thyroid cancer among young children who were in the vicinity of the Chernobyl nuclear power plant at the time of the 1986 accident strongly suggests a possible causal relationship to the large amounts of radioactive iodine isotopes in the resulting fallout. Although remaining indoors, restricting consumption of locally produced milk and foodstuffs, and evacuation are important strategies in a major breach-of-containment accident, stable potassium iodide (KI) prophylaxis given shortly before or immediately after exposure can reduce greatly the thyroidal accumulation of radioiodines and the resulting radiation dose. Concerns about possible side effects of large-scale, medically unsupervised KI consumption largely have been allayed in light of the favorable experience in Poland following the Chernobyl accident; 16 million persons received single administrations of KI with only rare occurrence of side effects and with a probable 40% reduction in projected thyroid radiation dose. Despite the universal acceptance of KI as an effective thyroid protective agent, supplies of KI in the US are not available for public distribution in the event of a reactor accident largely because government agencies have argued that stockpiling and distribution of KI to other than emergency workers cannot be recommended in light of difficult distribution logistics, problematic administrative issue, and a calculated low cost-effectiveness. However, KI in tablet form is expensive and has a long shelf life, and many countries have largely stockpiles and distribution programs. The World Health Organization recognizes the benefits of stable KI and urges its general availability. At present there are 110 operating nuclear power plants in the US and more than 300 in the rest of the world. These reactors product 17% of the world's electricity and in some countries up to 60-70% of the total electrical energy. Almost all US nuclear power plants have multistage containment

  14. Causal Inference and Observational Research: The Utility of Twins

    PubMed Central

    McGue, Matt; Osler, Merete; Christensen, Kaare

    2011-01-01

    Valid causal inference is central to progress in theoretical and applied psychology. Although the randomized experiment is widely considered the gold standard for determining whether a given exposure increases the likelihood of some specified outcome, experiments are not always feasible and in some cases can result in biased estimates of causal effects. Alternatively, standard observational approaches are limited by the possibility of confounding, reverse causation, and the nonrandom distribution of exposure (i.e., selection). We describe the counterfactual model of causation and apply it to the challenges of causal inference in observational research, with a particular focus on aging. We argue that the study of twin pairs discordant on exposure, and in particular discordant monozygotic twins, provides a useful analog to the idealized counterfactual design. A review of discordant-twin studies in aging reveals that they are consistent with, but do not unambiguously establish, a causal effect of lifestyle factors on important late-life outcomes. Nonetheless, the existing studies are few in number and have clear limitations that have not always been considered in interpreting their results. It is concluded that twin researchers could make greater use of the discordant-twin design as one approach to strengthen causal inferences in observational research. PMID:21593989

  15. Improving Causality Induction with Category Learning

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Zhihong; Shao, Zhiqing

    2014-01-01

    Causal relations are of fundamental importance for human perception and reasoning. According to the nature of causality, causality has explicit and implicit forms. In the case of explicit form, causal-effect relations exist at either clausal or discourse levels. The implicit causal-effect relations heavily rely on empirical analysis and evidence accumulation. This paper proposes a comprehensive causality extraction system (CL-CIS) integrated with the means of category-learning. CL-CIS considers cause-effect relations in both explicit and implicit forms and especially practices the relation between category and causality in computation. In elaborately designed experiments, CL-CIS is evaluated together with general causality analysis system (GCAS) and general causality analysis system with learning (GCAS-L), and it testified to its own capability and performance in construction of cause-effect relations. This paper confirms the expectation that the precision and coverage of causality induction can be remarkably improved by means of causal and category learning. PMID:24883419

  16. World commercial aircraft accidents

    SciTech Connect

    Kimura, C.Y.

    1993-01-01

    This report is a compilation of all accidents world-wide involving aircraft in commercial service which resulted in the loss of the airframe or one or more fatality, or both. This information has been gathered in order to present a complete inventory of commercial aircraft accidents. Events involving military action, sabotage, terrorist bombings, hijackings, suicides, and industrial ground accidents are included within this list. Included are: accidents involving world commercial jet aircraft, world commercial turboprop aircraft, world commercial pistonprop aircraft with four or more engines and world commercial pistonprop aircraft with two or three engines from 1946 to 1992. Each accident is presented with information in the following categories: date of the accident, airline and its flight numbers, type of flight, type of aircraft, aircraft registration number, construction number/manufacturers serial number, aircraft damage, accident flight phase, accident location, number of fatalities, number of occupants, cause, remarks, or description (brief) of the accident, and finally references used. The sixth chapter presents a summary of the world commercial aircraft accidents by major aircraft class (e.g. jet, turboprop, and pistonprop) and by flight phase. The seventh chapter presents several special studies including a list of world commercial aircraft accidents for all aircraft types with 100 or more fatalities in order of decreasing number of fatalities, a list of collision accidents involving commercial aircrafts, and a list of world commercial aircraft accidents for all aircraft types involving military action, sabotage, terrorist bombings, and hijackings.

  17. Critical factors and paths influencing construction workers' safety risk tolerances.

    PubMed

    Wang, Jiayuan; Zou, Patrick X W; Li, Penny P

    2016-08-01

    While workers' safety risk tolerances have been regarded as a main reason for their unsafe behaviors, little is known about why different people have different risk tolerances even when confronting the same situation. The aim of this research is to identify the critical factors and paths that influence workers' safety risk tolerance and to explore how they contribute to accident causal model from a system thinking perceptive. A number of methods were carried out to analyze the data collected through interviews and questionnaire surveys. In the first and second steps of the research, factor identification, factor ranking and factor analysis were carried out, and the results show that workers' safety risk tolerance can be influenced by four groups of factors, namely: (1) personal subjective perception; (2) work knowledge and experiences; (3) work characteristics; and (4) safety management. In the third step of the research, hypothetical influencing path model was developed and tested by using structural equation modeling (SEM). It is found that the effects of external factors (safety management and work characteristics) on risk tolerance are larger than that of internal factors (personal subjective perception and work knowledge & experiences). Specifically, safety management contributes the most to workers' safety risk tolerance through its direct effect and indirect effect; while personal subjective perception comes the second and can act as an intermedia for work characteristics. This research provides an in-depth insight of workers' unsafe behaviors by depicting the contributing factors as shown in the accident causal model developed in this research. PMID:26775077

  18. Accident Prevention in the Cowshed*

    PubMed Central

    Mainzer, W.

    1966-01-01

    Work accidents were studied at two agricultural settlements in the Haifa area. Most of the accidents were caused by farm animals, particularly by cattle, a fact which is in agreement with a general statistical survey conducted by the Department for Occupational Health of the General Federation of Labour in Israel. However, in the present investigation it was found that the accident rate in cowsheds was more than 10 times higher among the members of a co-operative smallholders' village (Moshav Ovdim) than it was at a collective settlement (Moshav Shetufi) of the same numerical size. Searching for the basic factors involved, it was discovered that the main reason for this striking difference in accident frequency was the faulty design of the small cowshed at the individual farms of the co-operative settlement, which, lacking adequate protective measures, exposes the farmer to close contact with the animals throughout almost all stages of dealing with them. It is concluded that accidents from handling cattle can be prevented by adhering strictly to the principle of eliminating direct contact between man and animals in the construction of the cowshed and its annexes. Images PMID:5948271

  19. RECENT LASER ACCIDENTS AT DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY LABORATORIES

    SciTech Connect

    ODOM, CONNON R.

    2007-02-02

    Recent laser accidents and incidents at research laboratories across the Department of Energy complex are reviewed in this paper. Factors that contributed to the accidents are examined. Conclusions drawn from the accident reports are summarized and compared. Control measures that could have been implemented to prevent the accidents will be summarized and compared. Recommendations for improving laser safety programs are outlined and progress toward achieving them are summarized.

  20. Designing an Experimental "Accident"

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Picker, Lester

    1974-01-01

    Describes an experimental "accident" that resulted in much student learning, seeks help in the identification of nematodes, and suggests biology teachers introduce similar accidents into their teaching to stimulate student interest. (PEB)

  1. Road accidents caused by drivers falling asleep.

    PubMed

    Sagberg, F

    1999-11-01

    About 29600 Norwegian accident-involved drivers received a questionnaire about the last accident reported to their insurance company. About 9200 drivers (31%) returned the questionnaire. The questionnaire contained questions about sleep or fatigue as contributing factors to the accident. In addition, the drivers reported whether or not they had fallen asleep some time whilst driving. and what the consequences had been. Sleep or drowsiness was a contributing factor in 3.9% of all accidents, as reported by drivers who were at fault for the accident. This factor was strongly over-represented in night-time accidents (18.6%), in running-off-the-road accidents (8.3%), accidents after driving more than 150 km on one trip (8.1%), and personal injury accidents (7.3%). A logistic regression analysis showed that the following additional factors made significant and independent contributions to increasing the odds of sleep involvement in an accident: dry road, high speed limit, driving one's own car, not driving the car daily, high education, and few years of driving experience. More male than female drivers were involved in sleep-related accidents, but this seems largely to be explained by males driving relatively more than females on roads with high speed limits. A total of 10% of male drivers and 4% of females reported to have fallen asleep while driving during the last 12 months. A total of 4% of these events resulted in an accident. The most frequent consequence of falling asleep--amounting to more than 40% of the reported incidents--was crossing of the right edge-line before awaking, whereas crossing of the centreline was reported by 16%. Drivers' lack of awareness of important precursors of falling asleep--like highway hypnosis, driving without awareness, and similar phenomena--as well as a reluctance to discontinue driving despite feeling tired are pointed out as likely contributors to sleep-related accidents. More knowledge about the drivers' experiences immediately

  2. Property transmission: an explanatory account of the role of similarity information in causal inference.

    PubMed

    White, Peter A

    2009-09-01

    Many kinds of common and easily observed causal relations exhibit property transmission, which is a tendency for the causal object to impose its own properties on the effect object. It is proposed that property transmission becomes a general and readily available hypothesis used to make interpretations and judgments about causal questions under conditions of uncertainty, in which property transmission functions as a heuristic. The property transmission hypothesis explains why and when similarity information is used in causal inference. It can account for magical contagion beliefs, some cases of illusory correlation, the correspondence bias, overestimation of cross-situational consistency in behavior, nonregressive tendencies in prediction, the belief that acts of will are causes of behavior, and a range of other phenomena. People learn that property transmission is often moderated by other factors, but under conditions of uncertainty in which the operation of relevant other factors is unknown, it tends to exhibit a pervasive influence on thinking about causality. PMID:19702382

  3. A Novel Approach for Identifying Causal Models of Complex Diseases from Family Data

    PubMed Central

    Park, Leeyoung; Kim, Ju H.

    2015-01-01

    Causal models including genetic factors are important for understanding the presentation mechanisms of complex diseases. Familial aggregation and segregation analyses based on polygenic threshold models have been the primary approach to fitting genetic models to the family data of complex diseases. In the current study, an advanced approach to obtaining appropriate causal models for complex diseases based on the sufficient component cause (SCC) model involving combinations of traditional genetics principles was proposed. The probabilities for the entire population, i.e., normal–normal, normal–disease, and disease–disease, were considered for each model for the appropriate handling of common complex diseases. The causal model in the current study included the genetic effects from single genes involving epistasis, complementary gene interactions, gene–environment interactions, and environmental effects. Bayesian inference using a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm (MCMC) was used to assess of the proportions of each component for a given population lifetime incidence. This approach is flexible, allowing both common and rare variants within a gene and across multiple genes. An application to schizophrenia data confirmed the complexity of the causal factors. An analysis of diabetes data demonstrated that environmental factors and gene–environment interactions are the main causal factors for type II diabetes. The proposed method is effective and useful for identifying causal models, which can accelerate the development of efficient strategies for identifying causal factors of complex diseases. PMID:25701286

  4. Causal diagrams in systems epidemiology

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Methods of diagrammatic modelling have been greatly developed in the past two decades. Outside the context of infectious diseases, systematic use of diagrams in epidemiology has been mainly confined to the analysis of a single link: that between a disease outcome and its proximal determinant(s). Transmitted causes ("causes of causes") tend not to be systematically analysed. The infectious disease epidemiology modelling tradition models the human population in its environment, typically with the exposure-health relationship and the determinants of exposure being considered at individual and group/ecological levels, respectively. Some properties of the resulting systems are quite general, and are seen in unrelated contexts such as biochemical pathways. Confining analysis to a single link misses the opportunity to discover such properties. The structure of a causal diagram is derived from knowledge about how the world works, as well as from statistical evidence. A single diagram can be used to characterise a whole research area, not just a single analysis - although this depends on the degree of consistency of the causal relationships between different populations - and can therefore be used to integrate multiple datasets. Additional advantages of system-wide models include: the use of instrumental variables - now emerging as an important technique in epidemiology in the context of mendelian randomisation, but under-used in the exploitation of "natural experiments"; the explicit use of change models, which have advantages with respect to inferring causation; and in the detection and elucidation of feedback. PMID:22429606

  5. The concept of causality in image reconstruction

    SciTech Connect

    Llacer, J.; Veklerov, E.; Nunez, J.

    1988-09-01

    Causal images in emission tomography are defined as those which could have generated the data by the statistical process that governs the physics of the measurement. The concept of causality was previously applied to deciding when to stop the MLE iterative procedure in PET. The present paper further explores the concept, indicates the difficulty of carrying out a correct hypothesis testing for causality, discusses the assumption needed to justify the tests proposed and discusses a possible methodology for a justification of that assumption. The paper also describes several methods that we have found to generate causal images and it shows that the set of causal images is rather large. This set includes images judged to be superior to the best maximum likelihood images, but it also includes unacceptable and noisy images. The paper concludes by proposing to use causality as a constraint in optimization problems. 16 refs., 5 figs.

  6. [Causality in occupational health: the Ardystil case].

    PubMed

    García García, A M; Benavides, F G

    1995-01-01

    Establishing causal relationships has been and is today a matter of debate in epidemiology. The observational nature of epidemiological research rends difficult the proving of these relationships. Related to this, different models and causal criteria have been proposed in order to explain health and disease determinants, from pure determinism in Koch postulates, accepting unicausal explanation for diseases, to more realistic multicausal models. In occupational health it is necessary to formulate causal models and criteria to assess causality, and frequently causal assessment in this field has important social, economic and juridical relevance. This paper deal with evaluation of causal relationships in epidemiology and this evaluation is illustrated with a recent example of an occupational health problem in our milieu: the Ardystil case. PMID:8666516

  7. There aren't plenty more fish in the sea: a causal network approach.

    PubMed

    Nikolic, Milena; Lagnado, David A

    2015-11-01

    The current research investigated how lay representations of the causes of an environmental problem may underlie individuals' reasoning about the issue. Naïve participants completed an experiment that involved two main tasks. The causal diagram task required participants to depict the causal relations between a set of factors related to overfishing and to estimate the strength of these relations. The counterfactual task required participants to judge the effect of counterfactual suppositions based on the diagrammed factors. We explored two major questions: (1) what is the relation between individual causal models and counterfactual judgments? Consistent with previous findings (e.g., Green et al., 1998, Br. J. Soc. Psychology, 37, 415), these judgments were best explained by a combination of the strength of both direct and indirect causal paths. (2) To what extent do people use two-way causal thinking when reasoning about an environmental problem? In contrast to previous research (e.g., White, 2008, Appl. Cogn. Psychology, 22, 559), analyses based on individual causal networks revealed the presence of numerous feedback loops. The studies support the value of analysing individual causal models in contrast to consensual representations. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed in relation to causal reasoning as well as environmental psychology. PMID:25597224

  8. Remote control continuous mining machine crushing accident data study

    SciTech Connect

    2006-05-11

    A committee was formed to identify norms and trends in remote control continuous miner crushing accidents as part of US MSHA's efforts to reduce and eliminate these types of accidents. The committee was tasked with collecting, reviewing, and evaluating remote control accident data to identify significant factors that could possibly contribute to remote control accidents. The report identifies that these types of accidents commonly happen to experienced miners during routine mining activities, with the majority occurring while moving the miner from one face to another (place changing). Another common aspect of the accidents is that many of the victims are newly employed at the mine where the accident occurred. Training all employees to stay outside the turning radius of an energized remote control continuous miner, establishing this as a safe operating procedure, and consistently enforcing this practice among miners will reduce these types of accidents. 10 figs., 5 tabs., 7 apps.

  9. Nonparametric causal inference for bivariate time series

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McCracken, James M.; Weigel, Robert S.

    2016-02-01

    We introduce new quantities for exploratory causal inference between bivariate time series. The quantities, called penchants and leanings, are computationally straightforward to apply, follow directly from assumptions of probabilistic causality, do not depend on any assumed models for the time series generating process, and do not rely on any embedding procedures; these features may provide a clearer interpretation of the results than those from existing time series causality tools. The penchant and leaning are computed based on a structured method for computing probabilities.

  10. Causal inference in economics and marketing.

    PubMed

    Varian, Hal R

    2016-07-01

    This is an elementary introduction to causal inference in economics written for readers familiar with machine learning methods. The critical step in any causal analysis is estimating the counterfactual-a prediction of what would have happened in the absence of the treatment. The powerful techniques used in machine learning may be useful for developing better estimates of the counterfactual, potentially improving causal inference. PMID:27382144

  11. Causal inference in economics and marketing

    PubMed Central

    Varian, Hal R.

    2016-01-01

    This is an elementary introduction to causal inference in economics written for readers familiar with machine learning methods. The critical step in any causal analysis is estimating the counterfactual—a prediction of what would have happened in the absence of the treatment. The powerful techniques used in machine learning may be useful for developing better estimates of the counterfactual, potentially improving causal inference. PMID:27382144

  12. Causal compensated perturbations in cosmology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Veeraraghavan, Shoba; Stebbins, Albert

    1990-01-01

    A theoretical framework is developed to calculate linear perturbations in the gravitational and matter fields which arise causally in response to the presence of stiff matter sources in a FRW cosmology. It is shown that, in order to satisfy energy and momentum conservation, the gravitational fields of the source must be compensated by perturbations in the matter and gravitational fields, and the role of such compensation in containing the initial inhomogeneities in their subsequent evolution is discussed. A complete formal solution is derived in terms of Green functions for the perturbations produced by an arbitrary source in a flat universe containing cold dark matter. Approximate Green function solutions are derived for the late-time density perturbations and late-time gravitational waves in a universe containing a radiation fluid. A cosmological energy-momentum pseudotensor is defined to clarify the nature of energy and momentum conservation in the expanding universe.

  13. Visualization of Traffic Accidents

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wang, Jie; Shen, Yuzhong; Khattak, Asad

    2010-01-01

    Traffic accidents have tremendous impact on society. Annually approximately 6.4 million vehicle accidents are reported by police in the US and nearly half of them result in catastrophic injuries. Visualizations of traffic accidents using geographic information systems (GIS) greatly facilitate handling and analysis of traffic accidents in many aspects. Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI), Inc. is the world leader in GIS research and development. ArcGIS, a software package developed by ESRI, has the capabilities to display events associated with a road network, such as accident locations, and pavement quality. But when event locations related to a road network are processed, the existing algorithm used by ArcGIS does not utilize all the information related to the routes of the road network and produces erroneous visualization results of event locations. This software bug causes serious problems for applications in which accurate location information is critical for emergency responses, such as traffic accidents. This paper aims to address this problem and proposes an improved method that utilizes all relevant information of traffic accidents, namely, route number, direction, and mile post, and extracts correct event locations for accurate traffic accident visualization and analysis. The proposed method generates a new shape file for traffic accidents and displays them on top of the existing road network in ArcGIS. Visualization of traffic accidents along Hampton Roads Bridge Tunnel is included to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  14. Causal Systems Categories: Differences in Novice and Expert Categorization of Causal Phenomena

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rottman, Benjamin M.; Gentner, Dedre; Goldwater, Micah B.

    2012-01-01

    We investigated the understanding of causal systems categories--categories defined by common causal structure rather than by common domain content--among college students. We asked students who were either novices or experts in the physical sciences to sort descriptions of real-world phenomena that varied in their causal structure (e.g., negative…

  15. Knowing Who Dunnit: Infants Identify the Causal Agent in an Unseen Causal Interaction

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Saxe, Rebecca; Tzelnic, Tania; Carey, Susan

    2007-01-01

    Preverbal infants can represent the causal structure of events, including distinguishing the agentive and receptive roles and categorizing entities according to stable causal dispositions. This study investigated how infants combine these 2 kinds of causal inference. In Experiments 1 and 2, 9.5-month-olds used the position of a human hand or a…

  16. The Power of Causal Beliefs and Conflicting Evidence on Causal Judgments and Decision Making

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Garcia-Retamero, Rocio; Muller, Stephanie M.; Catena, Andres; Maldonado, Antonio

    2009-01-01

    In two experiments, we investigated the relative impact of causal beliefs and empirical evidence on both decision making and causal judgments, and whether this relative impact could be altered by previous experience. 2. Selected groups of participants in both experiments received pre-training with either causal or neutral cues, or no pre-training…

  17. Updating outdated predictive accident models.

    PubMed

    Wood, A G; Mountain, L J; Connors, R D; Maher, M J; Ropkins, K

    2013-06-01

    Reliable predictive accident models (PAMs) (also referred to as safety performance functions (SPFs)) are essential to design and maintain safe road networks however, ongoing changes in road and vehicle design coupled with road safety initiatives, mean that these models can quickly become dated. Unfortunately, because the fitting of sophisticated PAMs including a wide range of explanatory variables is not a trivial task, available models tend to be based on data collected many years ago and seem unlikely to give reliable estimates of current accidents. Large, expensive studies to produce new models are likely to be, at best, only a temporary solution. This paper thus seeks to develop a practical and efficient methodology to allow currently available PAMs to be updated to give unbiased estimates of accident frequencies at any point in time. Two principal issues are examined: the extent to which the temporal transferability of predictive accident models varies with model complexity; and the practicality and efficiency of two alternative updating strategies. The models used to illustrate these issues are the suites of models developed for rural dual and single carriageway roads in the UK. These are widely used in several software packages in spite of being based on data collected during the 1980s and early 1990s. It was found that increased model complexity by no means ensures better temporal transferability and that calibration of the models using a scale factor can be a practical alternative to fitting new models. PMID:23510788

  18. Analysis of surface powered haulage accidents, January 1990--July 1996

    SciTech Connect

    Fesak, G.M.; Breland, R.M.; Spadaro, J.

    1996-12-31

    This report addresses surface haulage accidents that occurred between January 1990 and July 1996 involving haulage trucks (including over-the-road trucks), front-end-loaders, scrapers, utility trucks, water trucks, and other mobile haulage equipment. The study includes quarries, open pits and surface coal mines utilizing self-propelled mobile equipment to transport personnel, supplies, rock, overburden material, ore, mine waste, or coal for processing. A total of 4,397 accidents were considered. This report summarizes the major factors that led to the accidents and recommends accident prevention methods to reduce the frequency of these accidents.

  19. Causality methods in cosmetovigilance: comparison of Colipa and PLM versus global introspection.

    PubMed

    Zweers, P G M A; Gilmour, N J; Hepburn, P A; Gerritsen, R F; van Puijenbroek, E P

    2012-08-01

    The European Cosmetics Regulation requires a post-marketing system for detection of undesirable effects on human health of cosmetic products. Colipa, the European Cosmetic, toiletry and perfumery association, provided guidelines for causality assessment of these effects. In addition another causality method originally designed for causality rating in Post Launch Monitoring (PLM) of novel foods has been employed to assess causality of cosmetic products. In this study these two causality schemes for consumer cosmetic products were validated against clinical assessment, using the method of global introspection (GI) in 100 reported cases. Causality assessments were performed by three experienced assessors in pharmacovigilance. In the event of discordance between the assessors, an adapted Delphi method was used. The overall Spearman correlation coefficient was 0.74 for comparison of Colipa versus GI, whereas this was 0.50 for PLM versus GI. According to current guidelines, the sensitivity was 0.95 for both the Colipa and PLM method, specificity was 0.84 for Colipa and 0.40 for PLM. From these results it can be concluded the performance of the Colipa causality method yielded better correlation to GI than PLM causality method. The factor identified from comparison of these two schemes as having greatest impact was the course of the reaction. PMID:22609380

  20. Determining Directional Dependency in Causal Associations

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pornprasertmanit, Sunthud; Little, Todd D.

    2012-01-01

    Directional dependency is a method to determine the likely causal direction of effect between two variables. This article aims to critique and improve upon the use of directional dependency as a technique to infer causal associations. We comment on several issues raised by von Eye and DeShon (2012), including: encouraging the use of the signs of…

  1. Updating during Reading Comprehension: Why Causality Matters

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kendeou, Panayiota; Smith, Emily R.; O'Brien, Edward J.

    2013-01-01

    The present set of 7 experiments systematically examined the effectiveness of adding causal explanations to simple refutations in reducing or eliminating the impact of outdated information on subsequent comprehension. The addition of a single causal-explanation sentence to a refutation was sufficient to eliminate any measurable disruption in…

  2. Making the Case for Causal Dynamical Triangulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cooperman, Joshua H.

    2015-11-01

    The aim of the causal dynamical triangulations approach is to define nonperturbatively a quantum theory of gravity as the continuum limit of a lattice-regularized model of dynamical geometry. My aim in this paper is to give a concise yet comprehensive, impartial yet personal presentation of the causal dynamical triangulations approach.

  3. Controlling for causally relevant third variables.

    PubMed

    Goodie, Adam S; Williams, Cristina C; Crooks, C L

    2003-10-01

    In 3 experiments, the authors tested the conditions under which 3rd variables are controlled for in making causal judgments. The authors hypothesized that 3rd variables are controlled for when the 3rd variables are themselves perceived as causal. In Experiment 1, the participants predicted test performance after seeing information about wearing a lucky garment, taking a test-preparation course, and staying up late. The course (perceived as more causally relevant) was controlled for more than was the garment (perceived as less causally relevant) in assessing the effectiveness of staying up late. In Experiments 2 and 3, to obviate the many alternative accounts that arise from the realistic cover story of Experiment 1, participants predicted flowers' blooming after the presentation or nonpresentation of liquids. When one liquid was trained as causal, it was controlled for more in judging another liquid than when it was trained as neutral. Overall, stimuli perceived as causal were controlled for more when judging other stimuli. The authors concluded that the effect of perceived causal relevance on causal conditionalizing is real and normatively reasonable. PMID:14672103

  4. Inference and Action in Early Causal Reasoning.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Frye, Douglas; And Others

    1996-01-01

    Two marble-and-ramp experiments investigated whether a simple-to-embedded-rules account can explain changes in children's causal reasoning. Results indicated that the same difference between three- and four-year olds in the prediction experiment appeared in the action experiment, suggesting that the same rules may underlie causal action as well as…

  5. A Causal Model of Faculty Research Productivity.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bean, John P.

    A causal model of faculty research productivity was developed through a survey of the literature. Models of organizational behavior, organizational effectiveness, and motivation were synthesized into a causal model of productivity. Two general types of variables were assumed to affect individual research productivity: institutional variables and…

  6. Compact Representations of Extended Causal Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Halpern, Joseph Y.; Hitchcock, Christopher

    2013-01-01

    Judea Pearl (2000) was the first to propose a definition of actual causation using causal models. A number of authors have suggested that an adequate account of actual causation must appeal not only to causal structure but also to considerations of "normality." In Halpern and Hitchcock (2011), we offer a definition of actual causation…

  7. A General Approach to Causal Mediation Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Imai, Kosuke; Keele, Luke; Tingley, Dustin

    2010-01-01

    Traditionally in the social sciences, causal mediation analysis has been formulated, understood, and implemented within the framework of linear structural equation models. We argue and demonstrate that this is problematic for 3 reasons: the lack of a general definition of causal mediation effects independent of a particular statistical model, the…

  8. Causal Mediation Analysis: Warning! Assumptions Ahead

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Keele, Luke

    2015-01-01

    In policy evaluations, interest may focus on why a particular treatment works. One tool for understanding why treatments work is causal mediation analysis. In this essay, I focus on the assumptions needed to estimate mediation effects. I show that there is no "gold standard" method for the identification of causal mediation effects. In…

  9. The Acquisition of Causal Connectives in Turkish.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Aksu, Ayhan

    The elicited speech of 26 Turkish children ranging in age from 2;0 to 4;6 was examined with respect to causality. The developmental sequence of the acquisition of causal connectives showed a progression from the use of no explicit connectives to the acquisition of connectives that are context-dependent. The next stage in this progression was the…

  10. Spin foam models as energetic causal sets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cortês, Marina; Smolin, Lee

    2016-04-01

    Energetic causal sets are causal sets endowed by a flow of energy-momentum between causally related events. These incorporate a novel mechanism for the emergence of space-time from causal relations [M. Cortês and L. Smolin, Phys. Rev. D 90, 084007 (2014); Phys. Rev. D 90, 044035 (2014)]. Here we construct a spin foam model which is also an energetic causal set model. This model is closely related to the model introduced in parallel by Wolfgang Wieland in [Classical Quantum Gravity 32, 015016 (2015)]. What makes a spin foam model also an energetic causal set is Wieland's identification of new degrees of freedom analogous to momenta, conserved at events (or four-simplices), whose norms are not mass, but the volume of tetrahedra. This realizes the torsion constraints, which are missing in previous spin foam models, and are needed to relate the connection dynamics to those of the metric, as in general relativity. This identification makes it possible to apply the new mechanism for the emergence of space-time to a spin foam model. Our formulation also makes use of Markopoulou's causal formulation of spin foams [arXiv:gr-qc/9704013]. These are generated by evolving spin networks with dual Pachner moves. This endows the spin foam history with causal structure given by a partial ordering of the events which are dual to four-simplices.

  11. Causal Inferences during Text Comprehension and Production.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kemper, Susan

    As comprehension failure results whenever readers are unable to infer missing causal connections, recent comprehension research has focused both on assessing the inferential complexity of texts and on investigating students' developing ability to infer causal relationships. Studies have demonstrated that texts rely on four types of causal…

  12. Campbell's and Rubin's Perspectives on Causal Inference

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    West, Stephen G.; Thoemmes, Felix

    2010-01-01

    Donald Campbell's approach to causal inference (D. T. Campbell, 1957; W. R. Shadish, T. D. Cook, & D. T. Campbell, 2002) is widely used in psychology and education, whereas Donald Rubin's causal model (P. W. Holland, 1986; D. B. Rubin, 1974, 2005) is widely used in economics, statistics, medicine, and public health. Campbell's approach focuses on…

  13. Granger causality for state-space models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barnett, Lionel; Seth, Anil K.

    2015-04-01

    Granger causality has long been a prominent method for inferring causal interactions between stochastic variables for a broad range of complex physical systems. However, it has been recognized that a moving average (MA) component in the data presents a serious confound to Granger causal analysis, as routinely performed via autoregressive (AR) modeling. We solve this problem by demonstrating that Granger causality may be calculated simply and efficiently from the parameters of a state-space (SS) model. Since SS models are equivalent to autoregressive moving average models, Granger causality estimated in this fashion is not degraded by the presence of a MA component. This is of particular significance when the data has been filtered, downsampled, observed with noise, or is a subprocess of a higher dimensional process, since all of these operations—commonplace in application domains as diverse as climate science, econometrics, and the neurosciences—induce a MA component. We show how Granger causality, conditional and unconditional, in both time and frequency domains, may be calculated directly from SS model parameters via solution of a discrete algebraic Riccati equation. Numerical simulations demonstrate that Granger causality estimators thus derived have greater statistical power and smaller bias than AR estimators. We also discuss how the SS approach facilitates relaxation of the assumptions of linearity, stationarity, and homoscedasticity underlying current AR methods, thus opening up potentially significant new areas of research in Granger causal analysis.

  14. Causal Inferences in the Campbellian Validity System

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lund, Thorleif

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of the present paper is to critically examine causal inferences and internal validity as defined by Campbell and co-workers. Several arguments are given against their counterfactual effect definition, and this effect definition should be considered inadequate for causal research in general. Moreover, their defined independence between…

  15. Essays on Causal Inference for Public Policy

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zajonc, Tristan

    2012-01-01

    Effective policymaking requires understanding the causal effects of competing proposals. Relevant causal quantities include proposals' expected effect on different groups of recipients, the impact of policies over time, the potential trade-offs between competing objectives, and, ultimately, the optimal policy. This dissertation studies causal…

  16. Laser accidents: Being Prepared

    SciTech Connect

    Barat, K

    2003-01-24

    The goal of the Laser Safety Officer and any laser safety program is to prevent a laser accident from occurring, in particular an injury to a person's eyes. Most laser safety courses talk about laser accidents, causes, and types of injury. The purpose of this presentation is to present a plan for safety offices and users to follow in case of accident or injury from laser radiation.

  17. Discovering phenotypic causal structure from nonexperimental data.

    PubMed

    Otsuka, J

    2016-06-01

    The evolutionary potential of organisms depends on how their parts are structured into a cohesive whole. A major obstacle for empirical studies of phenotypic organization is that observed associations among characters usually confound different causal pathways such as pleiotropic modules, interphenotypic causal relationships and environmental effects. The present article proposes causal search algorithms as a new tool to distinguish these different modes of phenotypic integration. Without assuming an a priori structure, the algorithms seek a class of causal hypotheses consistent with independence relationships holding in observational data. The technique can be applied to discover causal relationships among a set of measured traits and to distinguish genuine selection from spurious correlations. The former application is illustrated with a biological data set of rat morphological measurements previously analysed by Cheverud et al. (Evolution 1983, 37, 895). PMID:27007864

  18. Causality, Bell's theorem, and Ontic Definiteness

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Henson, Joe

    2011-03-01

    Bell's theorem shows that the reasonable relativistic causal principle known as ``local causality'' is not compatible with the predictions of quantum mechanics. It is not possible maintain a satisfying causal principle of this type while dropping any of the better-known assumptions of Bell's theorem. However, another assumption of Bell's theorem is the use of classical logic. One part of this assumption is the principle of ontic definiteness, that is, that it must in principle be possible to assign definite truth values to all propositions treated in the theory. Once the logical setting is clarified somewhat, it can be seen that rejecting this principle does not in any way undermine the type of causal principle used by Bell. Without ontic definiteness, the deterministic causal condition known as Einstein Locality succeeds in banning superluminal influence (including signalling) whilst allowing correlations that violate Bell's inequalities. Objections to altering logic, and the consequences for operational and realistic viewpoints, are also addressed.

  19. Causal effects in psychotherapy: counterfactuals counteract overgeneralization.

    PubMed

    Hofler, Michael; Gloster, Andrew T; Hoyer, Jurgen

    2010-11-01

    Causal inference of psychotherapy effects is usually based on the theory of internal and external validity. The authors argue that as an inductive strategy it often leads to overgeneralization because it promotes neglect of specific clinical boundary conditions (such as practically relevant combinations of treatments, settings, patients, and therapists). Adding the counterfactual conceptualization of causal effects counteracts overgeneralization by considering individuals at a fixed time under two possible treatment conditions as basic units of a causal effect. Consequently, causal effects are regarded as varying in nature as local pieces of a global theory. The authors outline the main deductions from the counterfactual conceptualization with regard to understanding causality, average effects, bias, and study design and address some controversies in psychotherapy research. PMID:20924977

  20. Accident mortality among children

    PubMed Central

    Swaroop, S.; Albrecht, R. M.; Grab, B.

    1956-01-01

    The authors present statistics on mortality from accidents, with special reference to those relating to the age-group 1-19 years. For a number of countries figures are given for the proportional mortality from accidents (the number of accident deaths expressed as a percentage of the number of deaths from all causes) and for the specific death-rates, per 100 000 population, from all causes of death, from selected causes, from all causes of accidents, and from various types of accident. From these figures it appears that, in most countries, accidents are becoming relatively increasingly prominent as a cause of death in childhood, primarily because of the conquest of other causes of death—such as infectious and parasitic diseases, which formerly took a heavy toll of children and adolescents—but also to some extent because the death-rate from motor-vehicle accidents is rising and cancelling out the reduction in the rate for other causes of accidental death. In the authors' opinion, further epidemiological investigations into accident causation are required for the purpose of devising quicker and more effective methods of accident prevention. PMID:13383361

  1. Attitudes toward Others Depend upon Self and Other Causal Uncertainty

    PubMed Central

    Tobin, Stephanie J.; Osika, Matylda M.; McLanders, Mia

    2014-01-01

    People who are high in causal uncertainty doubt their own ability to understand the causes of social events. In three studies, we examined the effects of target and perceiver causal uncertainty on attitudes toward the target. Target causal uncertainty was manipulated via responses on a causal uncertainty scale in Studies 1 and 2, and with a scenario in Study 3. In Studies 1 and 2, we found that participants liked the low causal uncertainty target more than the high causal uncertainty target. This preference was stronger for low relative to high causal uncertainty participants because high causal uncertainty participants held more uncertain ideals. In Study 3, we examined the value individuals place upon causal understanding (causal importance) as an additional moderator. We found that regardless of their own causal uncertainty level, participants who were high in causal importance liked the low causal uncertainty target more than the high causal uncertainty target. However, when participants were low in causal importance, low causal uncertainty perceivers showed no preference and high causal uncertainty perceivers preferred the high causal uncertainty target. These findings reveal that goal importance and ideals can influence how perceivers respond to causal uncertainty in others. PMID:24504048

  2. Spread of entanglement and causality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Casini, Horacio; Liu, Hong; Mezei, Márk

    2016-07-01

    We investigate causality constraints on the time evolution of entanglement entropy after a global quench in relativistic theories. We first provide a general proof that the so-called tsunami velocity is bounded by the speed of light. We then generalize the free particle streaming model of [1] to general dimensions and to an arbitrary entanglement pattern of the initial state. In more than two spacetime dimensions the spread of entanglement in these models is highly sensitive to the initial entanglement pattern, but we are able to prove an upper bound on the normalized rate of growth of entanglement entropy, and hence the tsunami velocity. The bound is smaller than what one gets for quenches in holographic theories, which highlights the importance of interactions in the spread of entanglement in many-body systems. We propose an interacting model which we believe provides an upper bound on the spread of entanglement for interacting relativistic theories. In two spacetime dimensions with multiple intervals, this model and its variations are able to reproduce intricate results exhibited by holographic theories for a significant part of the parameter space. For higher dimensions, the model bounds the tsunami velocity at the speed of light. Finally, we construct a geometric model for entanglement propagation based on a tensor network construction for global quenches.

  3. Causal localizations in relativistic quantum mechanics

    SciTech Connect

    Castrigiano, Domenico P. L. Leiseifer, Andreas D.

    2015-07-15

    Causal localizations describe the position of quantum systems moving not faster than light. They are constructed for the systems with finite spinor dimension. At the center of interest are the massive relativistic systems. For every positive mass, there is the sequence of Dirac tensor-localizations, which provides a complete set of inequivalent irreducible causal localizations. They obey the principle of special relativity and are fully Poincaré covariant. The boosters are determined by the causal position operator and the other Poincaré generators. The localization with minimal spinor dimension is the Dirac localization. Thus, the Dirac equation is derived here as a mere consequence of the principle of causality. Moreover, the higher tensor-localizations, not known so far, follow from Dirac’s localization by a simple construction. The probability of localization for positive energy states results to be described by causal positive operator valued (PO-) localizations, which are the traces of the causal localizations on the subspaces of positive energy. These causal Poincaré covariant PO-localizations for every irreducible massive relativistic system were, all the more, not known before. They are shown to be separated. Hence, the positive energy systems can be localized within every open region by a suitable preparation as accurately as desired. Finally, the attempt is made to provide an interpretation of the PO-localization operators within the frame of conventional quantum mechanics attributing an important role to the negative energy states.

  4. Quantum correlations with no causal order

    PubMed Central

    Oreshkov, Ognyan; Costa, Fabio; Brukner, Časlav

    2012-01-01

    The idea that events obey a definite causal order is deeply rooted in our understanding of the world and at the basis of the very notion of time. But where does causal order come from, and is it a necessary property of nature? Here, we address these questions from the standpoint of quantum mechanics in a new framework for multipartite correlations that does not assume a pre-defined global causal structure but only the validity of quantum mechanics locally. All known situations that respect causal order, including space-like and time-like separated experiments, are captured by this framework in a unified way. Surprisingly, we find correlations that cannot be understood in terms of definite causal order. These correlations violate a 'causal inequality' that is satisfied by all space-like and time-like correlations. We further show that in a classical limit causal order always arises, which suggests that space-time may emerge from a more fundamental structure in a quantum-to-classical transition. PMID:23033068

  5. Causal structures in Gauss-Bonnet gravity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Izumi, Keisuke

    2014-08-01

    We analyze causal structures in Gauss-Bonnet gravity. It is known that Gauss-Bonnet gravity potentially has superluminal propagation of gravitons due to its noncanonical kinetic terms. In a theory with superluminal modes, an analysis of causality based on null curves makes no sense, and thus, we need to analyze them in a different way. In this paper, using the method of the characteristics, we analyze the causal structure in Gauss-Bonnet gravity. We have the result that, on a Killing horizon, gravitons can propagate in the null direction tangent to the Killing horizon. Therefore, a Killing horizon can be a causal edge as in the case of general relativity; i.e. a Killing horizon is the "event horizon" in the sense of causality. We also analyze causal structures on nonstationary solutions with (D-2)-dimensional maximal symmetry, including spherically symmetric and flat spaces. If the geometrical null energy condition, RABNANB≥0 for any null vector NA, is satisfied, the radial velocity of gravitons must be less than or equal to that of light. However, if the geometrical null energy condition is violated, gravitons can propagate faster than light. Hence, on an evaporating black hole where the geometrical null energy condition is expected not to hold, classical gravitons can escape from the "black hole" defined with null curves. That is, the causal structures become nontrivial. It may be one of the possible solutions for the information loss paradox of evaporating black holes.

  6. Airline accident response.

    PubMed

    Bettes, Thomas

    2002-01-01

    This article outlines government regulations affecting accident response and offers guidelines for airline contingency plans in the face of major air disasters, such as those encountered on September 11, 2001. The author also touches upon the role of the corporate medical department in accident investigation and victim identification. PMID:11872433

  7. Civil aircraft accident investigation.

    PubMed

    Haines, Daniel

    2013-01-01

    This talk reviews some historic aircraft accidents and some more recent. It reflects on the division of accident causes, considering mechanical failures and aircrew failures, and on aircrew training. Investigation results may lead to improved aircraft design, and to appropriate crew training. PMID:24057309

  8. Causality and momentum conservation from relative locality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Amelino-Camelia, Giovanni; Bianco, Stefano; Brighenti, Francesco; Buonocore, Riccardo Junior

    2015-04-01

    Theories involving curved momentum space, which recently became a topic of interest in the quantum-gravity literature, can, in general, violate many apparently robust aspects of our current description of the laws of physics, including relativistic invariance, locality, causality, and global momentum conservation. Here, we explore some aspects of the pathologies arising in generic theories involving curved momentum space for what concerns causality and momentum conservation. However, we also report results suggesting that when momentum space is maximally symmetric, and the theory is formulated relativistically, most notably including translational invariance with the associated relativity of spacetime locality, momentum is globally conserved and there is no violation of causality.

  9. A significant causal association between C-reactive protein levels and schizophrenia

    PubMed Central

    Inoshita, Masatoshi; Numata, Shusuke; Tajima, Atsushi; Kinoshita, Makoto; Umehara, Hidehiro; Nakataki, Masahito; Ikeda, Masashi; Maruyama, Souichiro; Yamamori, Hidenaga; Kanazawa, Tetsufumi; Shimodera, Shinji; Hashimoto, Ryota; Imoto, Issei; Yoneda, Hiroshi; Iwata, Nakao; Ohmori, Tetsuro

    2016-01-01

    Many observational studies have shown elevated blood CRP levels in schizophrenia compared with controls, and one population-based prospective study has reported that elevated plasma CRP levels were associated with late- and very-late-onset schizophrenia. Furthermore, several clinical studies have reported the efficacy of anti-inflammatory drugs on the symptoms in patients with schizophrenia. However, whether elevated CRP levels are causally related to schizophrenia is not still established because of confounding factors and reverse causality. In the present study, we demonstrated that serum CRP levels were significantly higher in patients with schizophrenia than in the controls by conducting a case-control study and a meta-analysis of case-control studies between schizophrenia and serum CRP levels. Furthermore, we provided evidence for a causal association between elevated CRP levels and increased schizophrenia risk by conducting a Mendelian randomization analysis. Our findings suggest that elevated CRP itself may be a causal risk factor for schizophrenia. PMID:27193331

  10. A significant causal association between C-reactive protein levels and schizophrenia.

    PubMed

    Inoshita, Masatoshi; Numata, Shusuke; Tajima, Atsushi; Kinoshita, Makoto; Umehara, Hidehiro; Nakataki, Masahito; Ikeda, Masashi; Maruyama, Souichiro; Yamamori, Hidenaga; Kanazawa, Tetsufumi; Shimodera, Shinji; Hashimoto, Ryota; Imoto, Issei; Yoneda, Hiroshi; Iwata, Nakao; Ohmori, Tetsuro

    2016-01-01

    Many observational studies have shown elevated blood CRP levels in schizophrenia compared with controls, and one population-based prospective study has reported that elevated plasma CRP levels were associated with late- and very-late-onset schizophrenia. Furthermore, several clinical studies have reported the efficacy of anti-inflammatory drugs on the symptoms in patients with schizophrenia. However, whether elevated CRP levels are causally related to schizophrenia is not still established because of confounding factors and reverse causality. In the present study, we demonstrated that serum CRP levels were significantly higher in patients with schizophrenia than in the controls by conducting a case-control study and a meta-analysis of case-control studies between schizophrenia and serum CRP levels. Furthermore, we provided evidence for a causal association between elevated CRP levels and increased schizophrenia risk by conducting a Mendelian randomization analysis. Our findings suggest that elevated CRP itself may be a causal risk factor for schizophrenia. PMID:27193331

  11. Safety analysis of surface haulage accidents

    SciTech Connect

    Randolph, R.F.; Boldt, C.M.K.

    1996-12-31

    Research on improving haulage truck safety, started by the U.S. Bureau of Mines, is being continued by its successors. This paper reports the orientation of the renewed research efforts, beginning with an update on accident data analysis, the role of multiple causes in these accidents, and the search for practical methods for addressing the most important causes. Fatal haulage accidents most often involve loss of control or collisions caused by a variety of factors. Lost-time injuries most often involve sprains or strains to the back or multiple body areas, which can often be attributed to rough roads and the shocks of loading and unloading. Research to reduce these accidents includes improved warning systems, shock isolation for drivers, encouraging seatbelt usage, and general improvements to system and task design.

  12. Speed Variance and Its Influence on Accidents.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Garber, Nicholas J.; Gadirau, Ravi

    A study was conducted to investigate the traffic engineering factors that influence speed variance and to determine to what extent speed variance affects accident rates. Detailed analyses were carried out to relate speed variance with posted speed limit, design speeds, and other traffic variables. The major factor identified was the difference…

  13. Seasonal variability of iodine and selenium in surface and groundwater as a factor that may contribute to iodine isotope balance in the thyroid gland and its irradiation in case of radioiodine contamination during accidents at the NPP

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Korobova, Elena; Kolmykova, Lyudmila; Ryzhenko, Boris; Berezkin, Viktor; Saraeva, Anastasia

    2016-04-01

    Radioiodine release to the environment during the accident at the Chernobyl NPP led to the increased risk of the thyroid cancer cases within the contaminated areas, the effect being aggravated in conditions of stable iodine and selenium deficiency in local food chains. Although the drinking water iodine is usually believed to contribute not more than 10% to local diet, our estimations accounting of water content in other products and several regional studies (e.g. India and Australia) proved its portion to be at least twice as much. As radioiodine isotopes are short-lived, their absorption depends greatly on stable iodine and selenium sufficiency in thyroid gland in the first few days of contamination and seasonal variation of stable iodine and selenium in local sources of drinking water may be significant as modifying the resulting thyroid irradiation in different seasons of the year. The main goal of the study was to evaluate seasonal variation of levels of iodine and selenium in natural waters of the Bryansk region as a possible factor affecting the radioiodine intake by thyroid gland of animals and humans in case of radioiodine contamination during the accident. Seasonal I and Se concentration was measured in the years of 2014 and 2015 at 14 test points characterizing surface (river and lake) and drinking groundwater. Obtained data proved considerable seasonal variation of I and Se concentration in natural waters (3,7-8,1 μg/l and 0,04-0,4 μg/l respectively) related to physico-chemical water parameters, such as pH, Eh and fluctuations in concentration of dissolved organic matter. The widest I and Se seasonal variability was observed in surface and well waters, maximum I level being found in autumn at the end of vegetation period characterized by active I leaching from the decomposed organic residues by long lasting precipitations. The content of selenium in the surface waters during summer-autumn (0,06-0,3 μg/l) was higher than in spring (0,04-0,05

  14. A review of causal estimation of effects in mediation analyses.

    PubMed

    Ten Have, Thomas R; Joffe, Marshall M

    2012-02-01

    We describe causal mediation methods for analysing the mechanistic factors through which interventions act on outcomes. A number of different mediation approaches have been presented in the biomedical, social science and statistical literature with an emphasis on different aspects of mediation. We review the different sets of assumptions that allow identification and estimation of effects in the simple case of a single intervention, a temporally subsequent mediator and outcome. These assumptions include various no confounding assumptions including sequential ignorability assumptions and also interaction assumptions involving the treatment and mediator. The understanding of such assumptions is crucial since some can be assessed under certain conditions (e.g. treatment-mediator interactions), whereas others cannot (sequential ignorability). These issues become more complex with multiple mediators and longitudinal outcomes. In addressing these assumptions, we review several causal approaches to mediation analyses. PMID:21163849

  15. Dark matter perturbations and viscosity: A causal approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Acquaviva, Giovanni; John, Anslyn; Pénin, Aurélie

    2016-08-01

    The inclusion of dissipative effects in cosmic fluids modifies their clustering properties and could have observable effects on the formation of large-scale structures. We analyze the evolution of density perturbations of cold dark matter endowed with causal bulk viscosity. The perturbative analysis is carried out in the Newtonian approximation and the bulk viscosity is described by the causal Israel-Stewart (IS) theory. In contrast to the noncausal Eckart theory, we obtain a third-order evolution equation for the density contrast that depends on three free parameters. For certain parameter values, the density contrast and growth factor in IS mimic their behavior in Λ CDM when z ≥1 . Interestingly, and contrary to intuition, certain sets of parameters lead to an increase of the clustering.

  16. Granger-causality maps of diffusion processes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wahl, Benjamin; Feudel, Ulrike; Hlinka, Jaroslav; Wächter, Matthias; Peinke, Joachim; Freund, Jan A.

    2016-02-01

    Granger causality is a statistical concept devised to reconstruct and quantify predictive information flow between stochastic processes. Although the general concept can be formulated model-free it is often considered in the framework of linear stochastic processes. Here we show how local linear model descriptions can be employed to extend Granger causality into the realm of nonlinear systems. This novel treatment results in maps that resolve Granger causality in regions of state space. Through examples we provide a proof of concept and illustrate the utility of these maps. Moreover, by integration we convert the local Granger causality into a global measure that yields a consistent picture for a global Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. Finally, we recover invariance transformations known from the theory of autoregressive processes.

  17. Rate-Agnostic (Causal) Structure Learning

    PubMed Central

    Plis, Sergey; Danks, David; Freeman, Cynthia; Calhoun, Vince

    2016-01-01

    Causal structure learning from time series data is a major scientific challenge. Extant algorithms assume that measurements occur sufficiently quickly; more precisely, they assume approximately equal system and measurement timescales. In many domains, however, measurements occur at a significantly slower rate than the underlying system changes, but the size of the timescale mismatch is often unknown. This paper develops three causal structure learning algorithms, each of which discovers all dynamic causal graphs that explain the observed measurement data, perhaps given undersampling. That is, these algorithms all learn causal structure in a “rate-agnostic” manner: they do not assume any particular relation between the measurement and system timescales. We apply these algorithms to data from simulations to gain insight into the challenge of undersampling. PMID:27182188

  18. The gravity dual of boundary causality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Engelhardt, Netta; Fischetti, Sebastian

    2016-09-01

    In gauge/gravity duality, points which are not causally related on the boundary cannot be causally related through the bulk; this is the statement of boundary causality. By the Gao–Wald theorem, the averaged null energy condition in the bulk is sufficient to ensure this property. Here we proceed in the converse direction: we derive a necessary as well as sufficient condition for the preservation of boundary causality under perturbative (quantum or stringy) corrections to the bulk. The condition that we find is a (background-dependent) constraint on the amount by which light cones can ‘open’ over all null bulk geodesics. We show that this constraint is weaker than the averaged null energy condition.

  19. Effective connectivity: Influence, causality and biophysical modeling

    PubMed Central

    Valdes-Sosa, Pedro A.; Roebroeck, Alard; Daunizeau, Jean; Friston, Karl

    2011-01-01

    This is the final paper in a Comments and Controversies series dedicated to “The identification of interacting networks in the brain using fMRI: Model selection, causality and deconvolution”. We argue that discovering effective connectivity depends critically on state-space models with biophysically informed observation and state equations. These models have to be endowed with priors on unknown parameters and afford checks for model Identifiability. We consider the similarities and differences among Dynamic Causal Modeling, Granger Causal Modeling and other approaches. We establish links between past and current statistical causal modeling, in terms of Bayesian dependency graphs and Wiener–Akaike–Granger–Schweder influence measures. We show that some of the challenges faced in this field have promising solutions and speculate on future developments. PMID:21477655

  20. Causal learning about tolerance and sensitization

    PubMed Central

    Rottman, Benjamin Margolin; Ahn, Woo-kyoung

    2010-01-01

    We introduce two abstract, causal schemata used during causal learning. (1) Tolerance is when an effect diminishes over time, as an entity is repeatedly exposed to the cause (e.g., a person becoming tolerant to caffeine). (2) Sensitization is when an effect intensifies over time, as an entity is repeatedly exposed to the cause (e.g., an antidepressant becoming more effective through repeated use). In Experiment 1, participants observed either of these cause–effect data patterns unfolding over time and exhibiting the tolerance or sensitization schemata. Participants inferred stronger causal efficacy and made more confident and more extreme predictions about novel cases than in a condition with the same data appearing in a random order over time. In Experiment 2, the same tolerance/sensitization scenarios occurred either within one entity or across many entities. In the many-entity conditions, when the schemata were violated, participants made much weaker inferences. Implications for causal learning are discussed. PMID:19966253

  1. Quantum probability assignment limited by relativistic causality.

    PubMed

    Han, Yeong Deok; Choi, Taeseung

    2016-01-01

    Quantum theory has nonlocal correlations, which bothered Einstein, but found to satisfy relativistic causality. Correlation for a shared quantum state manifests itself, in the standard quantum framework, by joint probability distributions that can be obtained by applying state reduction and probability assignment that is called Born rule. Quantum correlations, which show nonlocality when the shared state has an entanglement, can be changed if we apply different probability assignment rule. As a result, the amount of nonlocality in quantum correlation will be changed. The issue is whether the change of the rule of quantum probability assignment breaks relativistic causality. We have shown that Born rule on quantum measurement is derived by requiring relativistic causality condition. This shows how the relativistic causality limits the upper bound of quantum nonlocality through quantum probability assignment. PMID:26971717

  2. Granger-causality maps of diffusion processes.

    PubMed

    Wahl, Benjamin; Feudel, Ulrike; Hlinka, Jaroslav; Wächter, Matthias; Peinke, Joachim; Freund, Jan A

    2016-02-01

    Granger causality is a statistical concept devised to reconstruct and quantify predictive information flow between stochastic processes. Although the general concept can be formulated model-free it is often considered in the framework of linear stochastic processes. Here we show how local linear model descriptions can be employed to extend Granger causality into the realm of nonlinear systems. This novel treatment results in maps that resolve Granger causality in regions of state space. Through examples we provide a proof of concept and illustrate the utility of these maps. Moreover, by integration we convert the local Granger causality into a global measure that yields a consistent picture for a global Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. Finally, we recover invariance transformations known from the theory of autoregressive processes. PMID:26986337

  3. Quantum probability assignment limited by relativistic causality

    PubMed Central

    Han, Yeong Deok; Choi, Taeseung

    2016-01-01

    Quantum theory has nonlocal correlations, which bothered Einstein, but found to satisfy relativistic causality. Correlation for a shared quantum state manifests itself, in the standard quantum framework, by joint probability distributions that can be obtained by applying state reduction and probability assignment that is called Born rule. Quantum correlations, which show nonlocality when the shared state has an entanglement, can be changed if we apply different probability assignment rule. As a result, the amount of nonlocality in quantum correlation will be changed. The issue is whether the change of the rule of quantum probability assignment breaks relativistic causality. We have shown that Born rule on quantum measurement is derived by requiring relativistic causality condition. This shows how the relativistic causality limits the upper bound of quantum nonlocality through quantum probability assignment. PMID:26971717

  4. Vitalistic causality in young children's naive biology.

    PubMed

    Inagaki, Kayoko; Hatano, Giyoo

    2004-08-01

    One of the key issues in conceptual development research concerns what kinds of causal devices young children use to understand the biological world. We review evidence that children predict and interpret biological phenomena, especially human bodily processes, on the basis of 'vitalistic causality'. That is, they assume that vital power or life force taken from food and water makes humans active, prevents them from being taken ill, and enables them to grow. These relationships are also extended readily to other animals and even to plants. Recent experimental results show that a majority of preschoolers tend to choose vitalistic explanations as most plausible. Vitalism, together with other forms of intermediate causality, constitute unique causal devices for naive biology as a core domain of thought. PMID:15335462

  5. [Epidemiological features and causes of railway traffic accidents].

    PubMed

    Zhou, D S

    1991-01-01

    This article reports on epidemiological features of railway traffic accidents and factors influencing traffic safety. An analysis of various kinds of railway traffic accidents over 30 years in Nanjing Railway Branch, Showed that railway traffic accidents have become a sort of modern social disease, and had particular epidemiological features. The peak of the epidemic curve appeared cyclically and had a close relation to social disturbances, Frequency of accident occurrence was the highest in the first season (period of spring transport) and the third season (period of high temperature) of the year thus most accidents happen in February and August. Most accidents occurred on Fridays and least on Mondays. Distribution of accidents had obvious "antenna" phenomenon in round graph which had a 24-hour cycle. Analysing the multiple factors influencing traffic safety, the results showed that the upper-limit-age of a train driver should not be more than 50 years old; The phenomenon "bathtub" between personage accident rate and age must be taken seriously. More attention should be paid to the psychological aspects when recruiting train drivers. In our country, it is urgent to set up standard of psychomovement function for choosing train locomotive drivers. Fatigue was one of the direct causes resulting in accident occurrences. No statistical correlation was found between biorhythm and accident occurrence. PMID:2036908

  6. The good, the bad, and the timely: how temporal order and moral judgment influence causal selection

    PubMed Central

    Reuter, Kevin; Kirfel, Lara; van Riel, Raphael; Barlassina, Luca

    2014-01-01

    Causal selection is the cognitive process through which one or more elements in a complex causal structure are singled out as actual causes of a certain effect. In this paper, we report on an experiment in which we investigated the role of moral and temporal factors in causal selection. Our results are as follows. First, when presented with a temporal chain in which two human agents perform the same action one after the other, subjects tend to judge the later agent to be the actual cause. Second, the impact of temporal location on causal selection is almost canceled out if the later agent did not violate a norm while the former did. We argue that this is due to the impact that judgments of norm violation have on causal selection—even if the violated norm has nothing to do with the obtaining effect. Third, moral judgments about the effect influence causal selection even in the case in which agents could not have foreseen the effect and did not intend to bring it about. We discuss our findings in connection to recent theories of the role of moral judgment in causal reasoning, on the one hand, and to probabilistic models of temporal location, on the other. PMID:25477851

  7. Persistence of airline accidents.

    PubMed

    Barros, Carlos Pestana; Faria, Joao Ricardo; Gil-Alana, Luis Alberiko

    2010-10-01

    This paper expands on air travel accident research by examining the relationship between air travel accidents and airline traffic or volume in the period from 1927-2006. The theoretical model is based on a representative airline company that aims to maximise its profits, and it utilises a fractional integration approach in order to determine whether there is a persistent pattern over time with respect to air accidents and air traffic. Furthermore, the paper analyses how airline accidents are related to traffic using a fractional cointegration approach. It finds that airline accidents are persistent and that a (non-stationary) fractional cointegration relationship exists between total airline accidents and airline passengers, airline miles and airline revenues, with shocks that affect the long-run equilibrium disappearing in the very long term. Moreover, this relation is negative, which might be due to the fact that air travel is becoming safer and there is greater competition in the airline industry. Policy implications are derived for countering accident events, based on competition and regulation. PMID:20618386

  8. Causality violation, gravitational shockwaves and UV completion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hollowood, Timothy J.; Shore, Graham M.

    2016-03-01

    The effective actions describing the low-energy dynamics of QFTs involving gravity generically exhibit causality violations. These may take the form of superluminal propagation or Shapiro time advances and allow the construction of "time machines", i.e. spacetimes admitting closed non-spacelike curves. Here, we discuss critically whether such causality violations may be used as a criterion to identify unphysical effective actions or whether, and how, causality problems may be resolved by embedding the action in a fundamental, UV complete QFT. We study in detail the case of photon scattering in an Aichelburg-Sexl gravitational shockwave background and calculate the phase shifts in QED for all energies, demonstrating their smooth interpolation from the causality-violating effective action values at low-energy to their manifestly causal high-energy limits. At low energies, these phase shifts may be interpreted as backwards-in-time coordinate jumps as the photon encounters the shock wavefront, and we illustrate how the resulting causality problems emerge and are resolved in a two-shockwave time machine scenario. The implications of our results for ultra-high (Planck) energy scattering, in which graviton exchange is modelled by the shockwave background, are highlighted.

  9. Associative foundation of causal learning in rats.

    PubMed

    Polack, Cody W; McConnell, Bridget L; Miller, Ralph R

    2013-03-01

    Are humans unique in their ability to interpret exogenous events as causes? We addressed this question by observing the behavior of rats for indications of causal learning. Within an operant motor-sensory preconditioning paradigm, associative surgical techniques revealed that rats attempted to control an outcome (i.e., a potential effect) by manipulating a potential exogenous cause (i.e., an intervention). Rats were able to generate an innocuous auditory stimulus. This stimulus was then paired with an aversive stimulus. The animals subsequently avoided potential generation of the predictive cue, but not if the aversive stimulus was subsequently devalued or the predictive cue was extinguished (Exp. 1). In Experiment 2, we demonstrated that the aversive stimulus we used was in fact aversive, that it was subject to devaluation, that the cue-aversive stimulus pairings did make the cue a conditioned stimulus, and that the cue was subject to extinction. In Experiments 3 and 4, we established that the decrease in leverpressing observed in Experiment 1 was goal-directed instrumental behavior rather than purely a product of Pavlovian conditioning. To the extent that interventions suggest causal reasoning, it appears that causal reasoning can be based on associations between contiguous exogenous events. Thus, contiguity appears capable of establishing causal relationships between exogenous events. Our results challenge the widely held view that causal learning is uniquely human, and suggest that causal learning is explicable in an associative framework. PMID:22562460

  10. Transitive reasoning distorts induction in causal chains.

    PubMed

    von Sydow, Momme; Hagmayer, York; Meder, Björn

    2016-04-01

    A probabilistic causal chain A→B→C may intuitively appear to be transitive: If A probabilistically causes B, and B probabilistically causes C, A probabilistically causes C. However, probabilistic causal relations can only guaranteed to be transitive if the so-called Markov condition holds. In two experiments, we examined how people make probabilistic judgments about indirect relationships A→C in causal chains A→B→C that violate the Markov condition. We hypothesized that participants would make transitive inferences in accordance with the Markov condition although they were presented with counterevidence showing intransitive data. For instance, participants were successively presented with data entailing positive dependencies A→B and B→C. At the same time, the data entailed that A and C were statistically independent. The results of two experiments show that transitive reasoning via a mediating event B influenced and distorted the induction of the indirect relation between A and C. Participants' judgments were affected by an interaction of transitive, causal-model-based inferences and the observed data. Our findings support the idea that people tend to chain individual causal relations into mental causal chains that obey the Markov condition and thus allow for transitive reasoning, even if the observed data entail that such inferences are not warranted. PMID:26620811

  11. Review of hydrogen accidents and incidents in NASA operations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ordin, P. M.

    1974-01-01

    A number of the accidents/incidents with hydrogen in NASA operations are reviewed. The cause factors for the mishaps are reviewed and show that although few accidents occurred, the number could have been further reduced if the established NASA rules and regulations had been followed. Requirements for effective safety codes and areas of study for hydrogen safety information are included. The report concludes with a compilation of 96 hydrogen mishaps; a description of the accidents and their causes.

  12. The role of causal criteria in causal inferences: Bradford Hill's "aspects of association"

    PubMed Central

    Ward, Andrew C

    2009-01-01

    As noted by Wesley Salmon and many others, causal concepts are ubiquitous in every branch of theoretical science, in the practical disciplines and in everyday life. In the theoretical and practical sciences especially, people often base claims about causal relations on applications of statistical methods to data. However, the source and type of data place important constraints on the choice of statistical methods as well as on the warrant attributed to the causal claims based on the use of such methods. For example, much of the data used by people interested in making causal claims come from non-experimental, observational studies in which random allocations to treatment and control groups are not present. Thus, one of the most important problems in the social and health sciences concerns making justified causal inferences using non-experimental, observational data. In this paper, I examine one method of justifying such inferences that is especially widespread in epidemiology and the health sciences generally – the use of causal criteria. I argue that while the use of causal criteria is not appropriate for either deductive or inductive inferences, they do have an important role to play in inferences to the best explanation. As such, causal criteria, exemplified by what Bradford Hill referred to as "aspects of [statistical] associations", have an indispensible part to play in the goal of making justified causal claims. PMID:19534788

  13. Maternal smoking and child psychological problems: Disentangling causal and non-causal effects

    PubMed Central

    Brion, Marie-Jo; Victora, Cesar; Matijasevich, Alicia; Horta, Bernardo; Anselmi, Luciana; Steer, Colin; Menezes, Ana Maria B; Lawlor, Debbie A; Smith, George Davey

    2012-01-01

    Objective To explore associations of maternal prenatal smoking and child psychological problems and determine the role of causal intrauterine mechanisms. Patients and Methods Maternal smoking and child psychological problems were explored in 2 birth cohorts in Pelotas, Brazil (n=509; random sub-sample) and Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC), Britain (n=6,735). Four approaches for exploring causal mechanisms were applied: 1) cross-population comparisons between a high-income and a middle-income country, 2) multiple adjustment for socioeconomic and parental psychological factors, 3) maternal-paternal comparisons as a test of putative intrauterine effects; and 4) search for specific effects on different behavioural subscales. Results Socioeconomic patterning of maternal prenatal smoking was stronger in the ALSPAC compared with the Pelotas cohort. Despite this difference in a key confounder, consistency in observed associations was found between these cohorts. In both cohorts, unadjusted, maternal smoking was associated with greater offspring hyperactivity, conduct/externalizing problems, and peer problems, but not with emotional/internalizing problems. After adjusting for confounders and paternal prenatal smoking, only the association with conduct/externalizing problems persisted in both cohorts (conduct problems in the ALSPAC cohort, odds ratio OR: 1.24 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.07–1.46], p= .005; externalizing problems in the Pelotas cohort, OR:1.82 [95% CI:1.19–2.78], p=.005; ORs reflect ordinal ORs of maternal smokers having offspring with higher scores). Maternal smoking associations were stronger than paternal smoking associations, although statistical evidence for differences was weak in 1 cohort. Conclusions Evidence from 4 approaches suggests a possible intrauterine effect of maternal smoking on offspring conduct/externalizing problems. PMID:20587678

  14. Safety Is No Accident.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Christiansen, Monty L.

    1985-01-01

    Liability suits involving accidents in park and recreation areas are expensive and intangible costs are incalculable. Risk management practices related to park planning, personnel, and administrative practices are discussed. (MT)

  15. Accident resistant transport container

    DOEpatents

    Andersen, John A.; Cole, James K.

    1980-01-01

    The invention relates to a container for the safe air transport of plutonium having several intermediate wood layers and a load spreader intermediate an inner container and an outer shell for mitigation of shock during a hypothetical accident.

  16. Accident resistant transport container

    DOEpatents

    Anderson, J.A.; Cole, K.K.

    The invention relates to a container for the safe air transport of plutonium having several intermediate wood layers and a load spreader intermediate an inner container and an outer shell for mitigation of shock during a hypothetical accident.

  17. FATAL ACCIDENT REPORTING SYSTEM (FARS)

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Fatal Accident Reporting System (FARS) database consist of three relational tables, containing data on automobile accidents on public U.S. roads that resulted in the death of one or more people within 30 days of the accident. Truck and trailer accidents are also included.

  18. Investigating Driver Fatigue versus Alertness Using the Granger Causality Network

    PubMed Central

    Kong, Wanzeng; Lin, Weicheng; Babiloni, Fabio; Hu, Sanqing; Borghini, Gianluca

    2015-01-01

    Driving fatigue has been identified as one of the main factors affecting drivers’ safety. The aim of this study was to analyze drivers’ different mental states, such as alertness and drowsiness, and find out a neurometric indicator able to detect drivers’ fatigue level in terms of brain networks. Twelve young, healthy subjects were recruited to take part in a driver fatigue experiment under different simulated driving conditions. The Electroencephalogram (EEG) signals of the subjects were recorded during the whole experiment and analyzed by using Granger-Causality-based brain effective networks. It was that the topology of the brain networks and the brain’s ability to integrate information changed when subjects shifted from the alert to the drowsy stage. In particular, there was a significant difference in terms of strength of Granger causality (GC) in the frequency domain and the properties of the brain effective network i.e., causal flow, global efficiency and characteristic path length between such conditions. Also, some changes were more significant over the frontal brain lobes for the alpha frequency band. These findings might be used to detect drivers’ fatigue levels, and as reference work for future studies. PMID:26251909

  19. Development and Coherence of Beliefs About Disease Causality and Prevention

    PubMed Central

    Sigelman, Carol K.

    2014-01-01

    Guided by a naïve theories perspective on the development of thinking about disease, this study of 188 children aged 6 to 18 examined knowledge of HIV/AIDS causality and prevention using parallel measures derived from open-ended and structured interviews. Knowledge of both risk factors and prevention rules, as well as conceptual understanding of AIDS causality, increased with age. Younger children displayed more advanced knowledge in response to structured questions than in response to open-ended questions. Contrary to hypothesis, knowledge of causality was not more advanced than knowledge of prevention in elementary school. Moreover, correlations between the two types of knowledge were often nonsignificant except when the same method was used to assess both. Thus, methodology matters in assessing children's knowledge of disease, children's intuitive thinking is not consistently coherent, and it may be safest to educate children explicitly about sound prevention rules rather than assume they will infer the rules themselves from information about a disease's causes. PMID:25584017

  20. The impact of outcome valence on the susceptibility to suggestion for post-event causal misinformation.

    PubMed

    Chrobak, Quin M; Groves, Chris L; Otradovec, Tony

    2016-01-01

    Recent research has demonstrated that people are especially susceptible to false memory development for suggested misinformation that fills a causal role (i.e., explains some known outcome) (Chrobak & Zaragoza, 2013). However, little is known about how factors associated with the witnessed outcome impact the likelihood of false memory development. In the present study, outcome valence (negative, positive, or neutral) was manipulated. Participants heard several short stories that contained an outcome (e.g., a counselor getting promoted) that lacked a causal explanation. Participants were subsequently exposed to suggested causal misinformation that explained that outcome (e.g., the counselor performed an impressive act the previous day) and then were tested on their memory for the original event. Results indicated that participants incorrectly reported the suggested causal information more when it explained either a positive or negative outcome as opposed to a neutral outcome. Theoretical and practical implications of these findings are discussed. PMID:26786731

  1. Accident management information needs

    SciTech Connect

    Hanson, D.J.; Ward, L.W.; Nelson, W.R.; Meyer, O.R. )

    1990-04-01

    In support of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Accident Management Research Program, a methodology has been developed for identifying the plant information needs necessary for personnel involved in the management of an accident to diagnose that an accident is in progress, select and implement strategies to prevent or mitigate the accident, and monitor the effectiveness of these strategies. This report describes the methodology and presents an application of this methodology to a Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) with a large dry containment. A risk-important severe accident sequence for a PWR is used to examine the capability of the existing measurements to supply the necessary information. The method includes an assessment of the effects of the sequence on the measurement availability including the effects of environmental conditions. The information needs and capabilities identified using this approach are also intended to form the basis for more comprehensive information needs assessment performed during the analyses and development of specific strategies for use in accident management prevention and mitigation. 3 refs., 16 figs., 7 tabs.

  2. Environmental aftermath of the radiation accident at Tomsk-7

    SciTech Connect

    Porfiriev, B.N. |

    1996-01-01

    An analysis is presented of the environmental effects of the most serious radiation accident recorded after Chernobyl, which occurred in the formerly secret town of Tomsk-7 in Siberia, Russia, on 6, April 1993. Fortunately, it appears not to have become a major industrial crisis or disaster. The causes of the accident are described. It is argued that a mixture of both objective and subjective prerequisites, including specific human, organizational, and technological factors, were responsible for the explosion or directly facilitated it. The Tomsk-7 accident`s ecological, medical, social, and psychological consequences are discussed. 33 refs., 1 figs., 1 tab.

  3. Helicopter sling load accident/incident survey: 1968 - 1974

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shaughnessy, J. D.; Pardue, M. D.

    1977-01-01

    During the period considered a mean of eleven accidents per year occurred and a mean of eleven persons were killed or seriously injured per year. Forty-one percent of the accidents occurred during hover, and 63 percent of the accidents had pilot error listed as a cause/factor. Many accidents involved pilots losing control of the helicopter or allowing a collision with obstructions to occur. There was a mean of 58 incidents each year and 51 percent of these occurred during cruise.

  4. Singular Clues to Causality and Their Use in Human Causal Judgment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    White, Peter A.

    2014-01-01

    It is argued that causal understanding originates in experiences of acting on objects. Such experiences have consistent features that can be used as clues to causal identification and judgment. These are singular clues, meaning that they can be detected in single instances. A catalog of 14 singular clues is proposed. The clues function as…

  5. The Mental Representation of Causal Conditional Reasoning: Mental Models or Causal Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ali, Nilufa; Chater, Nick; Oaksford, Mike

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, two experiments are reported investigating the nature of the cognitive representations underlying causal conditional reasoning performance. The predictions of causal and logical interpretations of the conditional diverge sharply when inferences involving "pairs" of conditionals--such as "if P[subscript 1] then Q" and "if P[subscript…

  6. The Cradle of Causal Reasoning: Newborns' Preference for Physical Causality

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mascalzoni, Elena; Regolin, Lucia; Vallortigara, Giorgio; Simion, Francesca

    2013-01-01

    Perception of mechanical (i.e. physical) causality, in terms of a cause-effect relationship between two motion events, appears to be a powerful mechanism in our daily experience. In spite of a growing interest in the earliest causal representations, the role of experience in the origin of this sensitivity is still a matter of dispute. Here, we…

  7. Quantum causality in closed timelike curves

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Korotaev, S. M.; Kiktenko, E. O.

    2015-08-01

    Although general relativity allows the existence of closed timelike curves (CTCs), self-consistency problems arise (the ‘grandfather paradox’ among others). It is known that quantum mechanical consideration of the matter formally removes all the paradoxes, but the questions about causal structure remain. On the other hand, the idea of postselected CTCs (P-CTC) in quantum teleportation has know been put forward and experimentally implemented. We consider these problems with the aid of quantum causal analysis, where causality is defined without invoking the time relation. It implements the Cramer principle of weak causality, which admits time reversal in entangled states. We analyze Deutsch CTCs (D-CTC) with different kinds of interactions between the chronology-violating and chronology-respecting particles, with refined inferences about mixedness, quantum/classical correlations, entanglement and thermodynamics in the D-CTC. The main result is that time reversal causality can really exist, however, the final quantum state does not place retrospective constraints on the initial state, instead the final state can influence the state inside the D-CTC. This is effectively the implementation of Novikov self-consistency principle. The P-CTC has radically different properties; in particular, if the initial state was pure, the final state is always pure too. Self-consistency is controlled by the initial state-dependent traversability of the P-CTC.

  8. Aging and Retrospective Revaluation of Causal Learning

    PubMed Central

    Mutter, Sharon A.; Atchley, Anthony R.; Plumlee, Leslie M.

    2011-01-01

    In a two-stage causal learning task, young and older participants first learned which foods presented in compound were followed by an allergic reaction (e.g., STEAK - BEANS → REACTION) and then the causal efficacy of one food from these compounds was revalued (e.g., BEANS → NO REACTION). In Experiment 1, unrelated food pairs were used and although there were no age differences in compound or single cue – outcome learning, older adults did not retrospectively revalue the causal efficacy of the absent target cues (e.g. STEAK). However, they had weaker within – compound associations for the unrelated foods and this may have prevented them from retrieving the representations of these cues. In Experiment 2, older adults still showed no retrospective revaluation of absent cues even though compound food cues with pre-existing associations were used (e.g., STEAK - POTATO) and they received additional learning trials. Finally, in Experiment 3, older adults revalued the causal efficacy of the target cues when small, unobtrusive icons of these cues were present during single cue revaluation. These findings suggest that age – related deficits in causal learning for absent cues are due to ineffective associative binding and reactivation processes. PMID:21843025

  9. Preschoolers prefer to learn causal information

    PubMed Central

    Alvarez, Aubry L.; Booth, Amy E.

    2015-01-01

    Young children, in general, appear to have a strong drive to explore the environment in ways that reveal its underlying causal structure. But are they really attuned specifically to casual information in this quest for understanding, or do they show equal interest in other types of non-obvious information about the world? To answer this question, we introduced 20 three-year-old children to two puppets who were anxious to tell the child about a set of novel artifacts and animals. One puppet consistently described causal properties of the items while the other puppet consistently described carefully matched non-causal properties of the same items. After a familiarization period in which children learned which type of information to expect from each informant, children were given the opportunity to choose which they wanted to hear describe each of eight pictured test items. On average, children chose to hear from the informant that provided causal descriptions on 72% of the trials. This preference for causal information has important implications for explaining the role of conceptual information in supporting early learning and may suggest means for maximizing interest and motivation in young children. PMID:25762945

  10. Causality principles in solar activity -climate relations.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stauning, Peter

    The relations between solar activity and the terrestrial climate have quite often been inves-tigated. In most cases the analyses have been based on comparisons between time series of solar activity parameters, for instance sunspot numbers, and terrestrial climate parameters, for instance global temperatures. However, many of the reported close relations are based on skilfully manipulated data and neglect of basic causality principles. For cause-effect relations to be reliably established, the variations in the causative function must obviously happen prior to the related effects. Thus it is problematic to use, for instance, running averages of parameters, if the result depends too much on posterior elements of the causative time series or precursory elements of the effects. Even more neglected are the causality principles for cause-effect rela-tions with a strongly varying source function, like for instance the 11 year solar activity cycle. In such cases damping of source variations by smoothing data series, introduces additional im-plied delays, which should be considered in the judgement of apparent correlations between the processed time series of cause and effect parameters. The presentation shall illustrate causal-ity relations between solar activity and terrestrial climate parameters and discuss examples of frequently quoted solar activity-climate relations, which violate basic causality principles.

  11. Quality function deployment applied to local traffic accident reduction.

    PubMed

    Sohn, S Y

    1999-11-01

    One of the major tasks of police stations is the management of local road traffic accidents. Proper prevention policy which reflects the local accident characteristics could immensely help individual police stations in decreasing various severity levels of road traffic accidents. In order to relate accident variation to local driving environmental characteristics, we use both cluster analysis and Poisson regression. The fitted result at the level of each cluster for each type of accident severity is utilized as an input to quality function deployment. Quality function deployment (QFD) has been applied to customer satisfaction in various industrial quality improvement settings, where several types of customer requirements are related to various control factors. We show how QFD enables one to set priorities on various road accident control policies to which each police station has to pay particular attention. PMID:10487350

  12. Mobile equipment accidents in surface coal mines. Information circular/1995

    SciTech Connect

    Aldinger, J.A.; Kenney, J.M.; Keran, C.M.

    1995-11-01

    This U.S. Bureau of Mines report present an analysis of surface coal mining accidents involving mobile equipment for the years 1989 through 1991. Mobile equipment is defined as haulage trucks, front-end loaders, bulldozers, scrapers, and road graders. These five pieces of mining equipment accounted for 20 pct of all surface coal mine accidents and 41 pct of the fatalities. The general discussion of these accidents covers the accident causes, the primary activity of the accident victims, and other contributing factors. A more detailed analysis of accidents associated with each piece of mobile equipment is also provided. This report will provide mine managers and mine safety personnel with a better understanding of the hazards associated with mobile mining equipment.

  13. A Causal Relationship of Occupational Stress among University Employees

    PubMed Central

    KAEWANUCHIT, Chonticha; MUNTANER, Carles; ISHA, Nizam

    2015-01-01

    Background: Occupational stress is a psychosocial dimension of occupational health concept on social determinants of health, especially, job & environmental condition. Recently, staff network of different government universities of Thailand have called higher education commission, and Ministry of Education, Thailand to resolve the issue of government education policy (e.g. wage inequity, poor welfare, law, and job & environment condition) that leads to their job insecurity, physical and mental health problems from occupational stress. The aim of this study was to investigate a causal relationship of occupational stress among the academic university employees. Methods: This cross sectional research was conducted in 2014 among 2,000 academic university employees at Thai government universities using stratified random sampling. Independent variables were wage, family support, periods of duty, and job & environmental condition. Dependent variable was stress. Results: Job & environmental condition, as social and environmental factor, and periods of duty as individual factor had direct effect to stress (P< 0.05). Family support, as family factor, and wage, as individual factor had direct effect to stress (P < 0.05). Both family support and wage were the causal endogenous variables. Conclusion: Job & environmental condition and periods of duty were increased so that it associated with occupational stress among academic university employees at moderate level. PMID:26576371

  14. Investigation of adolescent accident predictive variables in hilly regions.

    PubMed

    Mohanty, Malaya; Gupta, Ankit

    2016-09-01

    The study aims to determine the significant personal and environmental factors in predicting the adolescent accidents in the hilly regions taking into account two cities Hamirpur and Dharamshala, which lie at an average elevation of 700--1000 metres above the mean sea level (MSL). Detailed comparisons between the results of 2 cities are also studied. The results are analyzed to provide the list of most significant factors responsible for adolescent accidents. Data were collected from different schools and colleges of the city with the help of a questionnaire survey. Around 690 responses from Hamirpur and 460 responses from Dharamshala were taken for study and analysis. Standard deviations (SD) of various factors affecting accidents were calculated and factors with relatively very low SD were discarded and other variables were considered for correlations. Correlation was developed using Kendall's-tau and chi-square tests and factors those were found significant were used for modelling. They were - the victim's age, the character of road, the speed of vehicle, and the use of helmet for Hamirpur and for Dharamshala, the kind of vehicle involved was an added variable found responsible for adolescent accidents. A logistic regression was performed to know the effect of each category present in a variable on the occurrence of accidents. Though the age and the speed of vehicle were considered to be important factors for accident occurrence according to Indian accident data records, even the use of helmet comes out as a major concern. The age group of 15-18 and 18-21 years were found to be more susceptible to accidents than the higher age groups. Due to the presence of hilly area, the character of road becomes a major concern for cause of accidents and the topography of the area makes the kind of vehicle involved as a major variable for determining the severity of accidents. PMID:26077876

  15. Simulation Modeling Requirements for Loss-of-Control Accident Prevention of Turboprop Transport Aircraft

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Crider, Dennis; Foster, John V.

    2012-01-01

    In-flight loss of control remains the leading contributor to aviation accident fatalities, with stall upsets being the leading causal factor. The February 12, 2009. Colgan Air, Inc., Continental Express flight 3407 accident outside Buffalo, New York, brought this issue to the forefront of public consciousness and resulted in recommendations from the National Transportation Safety Board to conduct training that incorporates stalls that are fully developed and develop simulator standards to support such training. In 2010, Congress responded to this accident with Public Law 11-216 (Section 208), which mandates full stall training for Part 121 flight operations. Efforts are currently in progress to develop recommendations on implementation of stall training for airline pilots. The International Committee on Aviation Training in Extended Envelopes (ICATEE) is currently defining simulator fidelity standards that will be necessary for effective stall training. These recommendations will apply to all civil transport aircraft including straight-wing turboprop aircraft. Government-funded research over the previous decade provides a strong foundation for stall/post-stall simulation for swept-wing, conventional tail jets to respond to this mandate, but turboprops present additional and unique modeling challenges. First among these challenges is the effect of power, which can provide enhanced flow attachment behind the propellers. Furthermore, turboprops tend to operate for longer periods in an environment more susceptible to ice. As a result, there have been a significant number of turboprop accidents as a result of the early (lower angle of attack) stalls in icing. The vulnerability of turboprop configurations to icing has led to studies on ice accumulation and the resulting effects on flight behavior. Piloted simulations of these effects have highlighted the important training needs for recognition and mitigation of icing effects, including the reduction of stall margins

  16. Differences in fatal loss-of-control accidents between young male and female drivers.

    PubMed

    Laapotti, S; Keskinen, E

    1998-07-01

    The study describes some factors behind fatal loss-of-control accidents of young male and female drivers. These loss-of-control accidents were compared to accidents in which the driver did not lose control of the car. The data comprised all fatal car accidents of young (18-21 years old) drivers in Finland during the years 1978-1991. Only culpable drivers were included in the analysis (the number of accidents studied was 338 for males and 75 for females). All these accidents were investigated by the Road Accident Investigation Teams in Finland and the original team reports were used. The results showed that equal proportions of all male and female drivers' accidents were loss-of-control accidents. However, when male drivers lost control of their car, it usually led to a single-vehicle accident, but for female drivers the loss of control usually resulted in a collision with another car. Male drivers drove too fast and under the influence of alcohol more often in loss-of-control accidents than in other types of accidents. Typically the male drivers' loss of control accidents took place during evenings and nights. The female drivers' loss-of-control accidents usually took place in slippery road conditions. This study concludes that risky driving habits play a bigger role in male drivers' loss-of-control accidents than in male drivers' no loss-of-control accidents or in any kind of female drivers' accidents. Lack of vehicle handling skills may be crucial in female drivers' loss-of-control accidents. Advantages of studying loss-of-control accidents instead of single-vehicle accidents are discussed. PMID:9666240

  17. Aberrant expression of E-cadherin and beta-catenin in association with transforming growth factor-beta1 in urinary bladder lesions in humans after the Chernobyl accident.

    PubMed

    Romanenko, Alina; Morimura, Keiichirou; Kinoshita, Anna; Wanibuchi, Hideki; Vozianov, Alexander; Fukushima, Shoji

    2006-01-01

    This study examines the molecular pathways of cell-cell communication in chronic inflammatory processes associated with long-term low-dose urinary bladder exposure to ionizing radiation in people without major disease living more than 19 years in radio-contaminated areas of Ukraine after the Chernobyl accident. Patterns of components of the E-cadherin/beta-catenin complex, and transforming growth factor-beta1 (TGF-beta1) and inducible nitric oxide synthase (iNOS) expression were immunohistochemically evaluated in urinary bladder biopsies from 52 males with benign prostate hyperplasia and 8 females with chronic cystitis (group 1). For comparison, 25 males and 6 females living in non-contaminated areas of Ukraine were also investigated (group 2). Fourteen patients with primary urothelial carcinomas, which were operated on before the Chernobyl accident, were included as a carcinoma group. Chronic proliferative atypical cystitis ('Chernobyl cystitis') was observed in group 1 patients. Foci of dysplasia and carcinoma in situ were found in 51 (85%) and 34 (57%) of the 60 cases, respectively. Chronic cystitis with areas of dysplasia was detected in only 4 (13%) cases of 31 group 2 patients. Statistically significant differences in immunohistochemical scores for TGF-beta1 in the urothelium and lamina propria, iNOS in the urothelium and both beta-catenin and E-cadherin in the cytoplasm were observed between groups 1 and 2 with marked expression in group 1. Furthermore, TGF-beta1 overexpression and alteration in E-cadherin/beta-catenin complexes in bladder urothelium might play a crucial role in urinary bladder carcinogenesis in humans exposed to long-term low-dose ionizing radiation. PMID:16367920

  18. The Newtonian approximation in Causal Dynamical Triangulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Getchell, Adam

    2015-04-01

    I review how to derive Newton's law of universal gravitation from the Weyl strut between two Chazy-Curzon particles. I also briefly review Causal Dynamical Triangulations (CDT), a method for evaluating the path integral from canonical quantum gravity using Regge calculus and restrictions of the class of simplicial manifolds evaluated to those with a defined time foliation, thus enforcing a causal structure. I then discuss how to apply this approach to Causal Dynamical Triangulations, in particular modifying the algorithm to keep two simplicial submanifolds with curvature (i.e. mass) a fixed distance from each other, modulo regularized deviations and across all time slices. I then discuss how to determine if CDT produces an equivalent Weyl strut, which can then be used to obtain the Newtonian limit. I wrap up with a brief discussion of computational methods and code development.

  19. Normalizing the causality between time series.

    PubMed

    Liang, X San

    2015-08-01

    Recently, a rigorous yet concise formula was derived to evaluate information flow, and hence the causality in a quantitative sense, between time series. To assess the importance of a resulting causality, it needs to be normalized. The normalization is achieved through distinguishing a Lyapunov exponent-like, one-dimensional phase-space stretching rate and a noise-to-signal ratio from the rate of information flow in the balance of the marginal entropy evolution of the flow recipient. It is verified with autoregressive models and applied to a real financial analysis problem. An unusually strong one-way causality is identified from IBM (International Business Machines Corporation) to GE (General Electric Company) in their early era, revealing to us an old story, which has almost faded into oblivion, about "Seven Dwarfs" competing with a giant for the mainframe computer market. PMID:26382363

  20. Causal structure of general relativistic spacetimes

    SciTech Connect

    Howard, Ecaterina

    2010-06-15

    We present some of the recent results and open questions on the causality problem in General Relativity. The concept of singularity is intimately connected with future trapped surface and inner event horizon formation. We offer a brief overview of the Hawking-Penrose singularity theorems and discuss a few open problems concerning the future Cauchy development (domain of dependence), break-down criteria and energy conditions for the horizon stability. A key question is whether causality violating regions, generating a Cauchy horizon are allowed.We raise several questions concerning the invisibility and stability of closed trapped surfaces from future null infinity and derive the imprisonment conditions. We provide an up-to-date perspective of the causal boundaries and spacelike conformal boundary extensions for time oriented Lorentzian manifolds and more exotic settings.

  1. The causal meaning of Hamilton's rule.

    PubMed

    Okasha, Samir; Martens, Johannes

    2016-03-01

    Hamilton's original derivation of his rule for the spread of an altruistic gene (rb>c) assumed additivity of costs and benefits. Recently, it has been argued that an exact version of the rule holds under non-additive pay-offs, so long as the cost and benefit terms are suitably defined, as partial regression coefficients. However, critics have questioned both the biological significance and the causal meaning of the resulting rule. This paper examines the causal meaning of the generalized Hamilton's rule in a simple model, by computing the effect of a hypothetical experiment to assess the cost of a social action and comparing it to the partial regression definition. The two do not agree. A possible way of salvaging the causal meaning of Hamilton's rule is explored, by appeal to R. A. Fisher's 'average effect of a gene substitution'. PMID:27069669

  2. Multisensory causal inference in the brain.

    PubMed

    Kayser, Christoph; Shams, Ladan

    2015-02-01

    At any given moment, our brain processes multiple inputs from its different sensory modalities (vision, hearing, touch, etc.). In deciphering this array of sensory information, the brain has to solve two problems: (1) which of the inputs originate from the same object and should be integrated and (2) for the sensations originating from the same object, how best to integrate them. Recent behavioural studies suggest that the human brain solves these problems using optimal probabilistic inference, known as Bayesian causal inference. However, how and where the underlying computations are carried out in the brain have remained unknown. By combining neuroimaging-based decoding techniques and computational modelling of behavioural data, a new study now sheds light on how multisensory causal inference maps onto specific brain areas. The results suggest that the complexity of neural computations increases along the visual hierarchy and link specific components of the causal inference process with specific visual and parietal regions. PMID:25710476

  3. Causal Phenotype Discovery via Deep Networks

    PubMed Central

    Kale, David C.; Che, Zhengping; Bahadori, Mohammad Taha; Li, Wenzhe; Liu, Yan; Wetzel, Randall

    2015-01-01

    The rapid growth of digital health databases has attracted many researchers interested in using modern computational methods to discover and model patterns of health and illness in a research program known as computational phenotyping. Much of the work in this area has focused on traditional statistical learning paradigms, such as classification, prediction, clustering, pattern mining. In this paper, we propose a related but different paradigm called causal phenotype discovery, which aims to discover latent representations of illness that are causally predictive. We illustrate this idea with a two-stage framework that combines the latent representation learning power of deep neural networks with state-of-the-art tools from causal inference. We apply this framework to two large ICU time series data sets and show that it can learn features that are predictively useful, that capture complex physiologic patterns associated with critical illnesses, and that are potentially more clinically meaningful than manually designed features. PMID:26958203

  4. Normalizing the causality between time series

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liang, X. San

    2015-08-01

    Recently, a rigorous yet concise formula was derived to evaluate information flow, and hence the causality in a quantitative sense, between time series. To assess the importance of a resulting causality, it needs to be normalized. The normalization is achieved through distinguishing a Lyapunov exponent-like, one-dimensional phase-space stretching rate and a noise-to-signal ratio from the rate of information flow in the balance of the marginal entropy evolution of the flow recipient. It is verified with autoregressive models and applied to a real financial analysis problem. An unusually strong one-way causality is identified from IBM (International Business Machines Corporation) to GE (General Electric Company) in their early era, revealing to us an old story, which has almost faded into oblivion, about "Seven Dwarfs" competing with a giant for the mainframe computer market.

  5. A Cross-Cultural Validation of Perceived Locus of Causality Scale in Physical Education Context

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wang, C. K. John; Hagger, Martin; Liu, Woon Chia

    2009-01-01

    We examined the validity of the factor structure and invariance of the Perceived Locus of Causality (PLOC) scale instrument scores across two nations endorsing collectivist (Singapore) and individualist (Great Britain) cultural values. Results indicated that confirmatory factor analytic models of the PLOC exhibited adequate ft according to…

  6. Do tachyons violate the causality principle?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nibart, Gilles

    2000-05-01

    Very early, A. EINSTEIN has shown that particles with velocities greater than the velocity of light in vacuum may produce causal anomalies. Later, in quantum mechanics CPT transformations have allowed causal loops at a microscopic scale. So the possibility of faster-than-light particles has been analyzed again. The Meta-Relativity has extended the special theory of Relativity to particles beyond the light barrier (tachyons), by using the relativist formula with complex values. It has assigned to any tachyon an imaginary proper mass which does not easily offer a physical interpretation. In the framework of that theory, tachyons may appear to travel backwards in time and have negative energies, but they have to be interpreted as travelling forwards in time with positive energies (reinterpretation principle). The Meta-Relativity allows a tachyon reflection or re-emission to produce a causal loop, but some authors rejects the objection by postulating the tachyon emission cannot be systematically repeated. So causal loops can only occur at a microscopic scale. The theory of Relativity in the spacelike region has been developed by R. DUTHEIL using the tensor formalism of the general theory of Relativity. He defined tachyonic referential frames (TRF) with an other metric tensor and he showed it leads to an other LORENTZ group of transformations—the superluminal LORENTZ group. In this theory, tachyons always have a positive energy and a real proper mass, but their behavior must be described with tachyonic referential frames. R. DUTHEIL argued from the isomorphism of the both LORENTZ groups to prove the ZEEMAN'S theorem is respected by tachyons; so a sequence order is always preserved by any superluminal transformation. In the present communication, I show that time coordinates of tachyonic referential frames do not preserve causal order and do not make sense for natural observers. Nevertheless I show that the causal order is preserved within the superluminal proper time

  7. CAUSAL INFERENCE AND HETEROGENEITY BIAS IN SOCIAL SCIENCE*

    PubMed Central

    Xie, Yu

    2013-01-01

    Because of population heterogeneity, causal inference with observational data in social science may suffer from two possible sources of bias: (1) bias in unobserved pretreatment factors affecting the outcome even without treatment; and (2)bias due to heterogeneity in treatment effects. Even when we control for observed covariates, these two biases may occur if the classic ignorability assumption is untrue. In cases where the ignorability assumption is true, “composition bias” can occur if treatment propensity is systematically associated with heterogeneous treatment effects. PMID:23970824

  8. On causality in polymer scalar field theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    García-Chung, Angel A.; Morales-Técotl, Hugo A.

    2011-10-01

    The properties of spacetime corresponding to a proposed quantum gravity theory might modify the high energy behavior of quantum fields. Motivated by loop quantum gravity, recently, Hossain et al [1] have considered a polymer field algebra that replaces the standard canonical one in order to calculate the propagator of a real scalar field in flat spacetime. This propagator features Lorentz violations. Motivated by the relation between Lorentz invariance and causality in standard Quantum Field Theory, in this work we investigate the causality behavior of the polymer scalar field.

  9. The Causal Boundary Of Standard Stationary Spacetimes

    SciTech Connect

    Flores, Jose L.

    2009-05-01

    In this paper we present a description of the causal boundary for the class of standard stationary spacetimes: With (M,g{sub 0}) an arbitrary Riemannian manifold and {omega} a one-form on M, the causal boundary of (V = RxM,g -dt{sup 2}+{omega} x dt+dt x {omega}+g{sub 0}) is given in terms of a Busemann boundary construction on manifolds (M,F{sub {+-}}), with F{sub {+-}} Finsler metrics associated to {omega} and g{sub 0}.

  10. "Dual causation accident": a third type of work-related accident and its importance for occupational health surveillance.

    PubMed

    Cabral, Lenz Alberto Alves; Soler, Zaida Aurora Sperli Geraldes; Lopes, José Carlos

    2014-12-01

    The scope of this study is to contribute to the improvement of Occupational Health Surveillance in the Unified Health System (UHS), through the recognition and inclusion of a third type of work-related accident in the current Brazilian legislation classification: the dual causation accident. This classification aims at facilitating the establishment of a causal connection, thus broadening the understanding of the relationship between work process and the production of diseases. It also aims at improving legal rules to protect the health of workers. This approach, besides enabling the identification of sentinel events (starting point of surveillance activities), might contribute not only to a decrease in underreporting of work-related accidents, but also to the uniformity of concepts and the implementation of integrated actions of the National Social Security Institute (NISS), the UHS, the Ministry of Labor (MLE) and the Judiciary for the protection of workers. To propose a third type of occupational accident, a study of occupational accidents and causes of underreporting was conducted, with reference to the Brazilian labor legislation in the context of the National Policy on Occupational Health and the UHS. PMID:25388178

  11. Domain-specific perceptual causality in children depends on the spatio-temporal configuration, not motion onset

    PubMed Central

    Schlottmann, Anne; Cole, Katy; Watts, Rhianna; White, Marina

    2013-01-01

    Humans, even babies, perceive causality when one shape moves briefly and linearly after another. Motion timing is crucial in this and causal impressions disappear with short delays between motions. However, the role of temporal information is more complex: it is both a cue to causality and a factor that constrains processing. It affects ability to distinguish causality from non-causality, and social from mechanical causality. Here we study both issues with 3- to 7-year-olds and adults who saw two computer-animated squares and chose if a picture of mechanical, social or non-causality fit each event best. Prior work fit with the standard view that early in development, the distinction between the social and physical domains depends mainly on whether or not the agents make contact, and that this reflects concern with domain-specific motion onset, in particular, whether the motion is self-initiated or not. The present experiments challenge both parts of this position. In Experiments 1 and 2, we showed that not just spatial, but also animacy and temporal information affect how children distinguish between physical and social causality. In Experiments 3 and 4 we showed that children do not seem to use spatio-temporal information in perceptual causality to make inferences about self- or other-initiated motion onset. Overall, spatial contact may be developmentally primary in domain-specific perceptual causality in that it is processed easily and is dominant over competing cues, but it is not the only cue used early on and it is not used to infer motion onset. Instead, domain-specific causal impressions may be automatic reactions to specific perceptual configurations, with a complex role for temporal information. PMID:23874308

  12. Domain-specific perceptual causality in children depends on the spatio-temporal configuration, not motion onset.

    PubMed

    Schlottmann, Anne; Cole, Katy; Watts, Rhianna; White, Marina

    2013-01-01

    Humans, even babies, perceive causality when one shape moves briefly and linearly after another. Motion timing is crucial in this and causal impressions disappear with short delays between motions. However, the role of temporal information is more complex: it is both a cue to causality and a factor that constrains processing. It affects ability to distinguish causality from non-causality, and social from mechanical causality. Here we study both issues with 3- to 7-year-olds and adults who saw two computer-animated squares and chose if a picture of mechanical, social or non-causality fit each event best. Prior work fit with the standard view that early in development, the distinction between the social and physical domains depends mainly on whether or not the agents make contact, and that this reflects concern with domain-specific motion onset, in particular, whether the motion is self-initiated or not. The present experiments challenge both parts of this position. In Experiments 1 and 2, we showed that not just spatial, but also animacy and temporal information affect how children distinguish between physical and social causality. In Experiments 3 and 4 we showed that children do not seem to use spatio-temporal information in perceptual causality to make inferences about self- or other-initiated motion onset. Overall, spatial contact may be developmentally primary in domain-specific perceptual causality in that it is processed easily and is dominant over competing cues, but it is not the only cue used early on and it is not used to infer motion onset. Instead, domain-specific causal impressions may be automatic reactions to specific perceptual configurations, with a complex role for temporal information. PMID:23874308

  13. Injuries are not accidents

    PubMed Central

    Gutiérrez, María Isabel

    2014-01-01

    Injuries are the result of an acute exposure to exhort of energy or a consequence of a deficiency in a vital element that exceeds physiological thresholds resulting threatens life. They are classified as intentional or unintentional. Injuries are considered a global health issue because they cause more than 5 million deaths per year worldwide and they are an important contributor to the burden of disease, especially affecting people of low socioeconomic status in low- and middle-income countries. A common misconception exists where injuries are thought to be the same as accidents; however, accidents are largely used as chance events, without taken in consideration that all these are preventable. This review discusses injuries and accidents in the context of road traffic and emphasizes injuries as preventable events. An understanding of the essence of injuries enables the standardization of terminology in public use and facilitates the development of a culture of prevention among all of us. PMID:25386040

  14. Accidents in Childhood

    PubMed Central

    Keddy, J. Arthur

    1964-01-01

    The causes of injury to 17,141 children brought to the emergency department of a large pediatric hospital in one year were studied. The leading causes of injury were: falls, 5682; cuts or piercings, 1902; poisonings, 1597; and transportation accidents, 1368. Included in these are 587 falls on or down stairs, 401 cuts due to glass, 630 poisonings from household or workshop substances, 510 poisonings from salicylate tablets, and 449 accidents involving bicycles or tricycles. Other findings included 333 injuries to fingers or hands in doors, usually car doors; 122 instances of pulled arms; 384 ingestions and 53 inhalations of foreign bodies; 60 alleged sexual assaults, 58 chemical burns, 127 wringer injuries, and four attempted suicides. A rewarding opportunity in accident prevention exists for hospitals that undertake to compile and distribute pertinent source data. PMID:14201260

  15. Mendelian Randomization for the Identification of Causal Pathways in Atherosclerotic Vascular Disease.

    PubMed

    Jansen, Henning; Lieb, Wolfgang; Schunkert, Heribert

    2016-02-01

    Epidemiological and clinical studies have identified many physiological traits and biomarkers that are statistically associated with coronary artery disease (CAD). For some of these traits and biomarkers it is well established that they represent true causal risk factors for CAD. For other biomarkers, however, the distinct character of association is still a matter of debate. Randomized controlled trials (RCT) had a pivotal role in establishing causal associations between risk factors and biomarkers and CAD in some settings by demonstrating that therapeutic intervention targeting risk factors/biomarkers also affect the risk for clinical outcomes, such as CAD. In other scenarios, however, RCTs did not demonstrate clear benefits associated with lowering biomarker levels and therefore suggest that the association between these biomarkers (like C reactive protein) and CAD was driven by confounding or reverse causation. Even accurately conducted RCTs are not immune against incorrect causal inference. Moreover, the extensive costs and efforts required to conduct RCTs asked for alternative study designs to elucidate potential causal associations. Mendelian Randomization studies represent one such alternative by using genetic variants as proxies for specific biomarkers to investigate potential causal relations between biomarkers and clinical outcomes. In this review, we briefly describe the principles of MR studies and summarize recent MR studies in the context of CAD. PMID:26791863

  16. Causal Inferences with Group Based Trajectory Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Haviland, Amelia M.; Nagin, Daniel S.

    2005-01-01

    A central theme of research on human development and psychopathology is whether a therapeutic intervention or a turning-point event, such as a family break-up, alters the trajectory of the behavior under study. This paper lays out and applies a method for using observational longitudinal data to make more confident causal inferences about the…

  17. Dimensional Reduction in Causal Set Gravity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carlip, Steven

    2016-03-01

    Several different approaches to quantum gravity indicate that the effective dimension of spacetime falls to approximately two at very short distances. I provide evidence for similar behavior in the causal set approach to quantum gravity. Supported in part by Department of Energy Grant DE-FG02-91ER40674.

  18. Escaping Myopia: Teaching Students about Historical Causality

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Waring, Scott M.

    2010-01-01

    There are so many aspects to teaching history that are vital to creating well-rounded historical thinkers, but one of the most fundamental and most overlooked elements is the idea of causality. Far too many students do not understand the idea of causation, that there are multiple reasons for why historical events occurred and transpired in the way…

  19. The metagenomic approach and causality in virology

    PubMed Central

    Castrignano, Silvana Beres; Nagasse-Sugahara, Teresa Keico

    2015-01-01

    Nowadays, the metagenomic approach has been a very important tool in the discovery of new viruses in environmental and biological samples. Here we discuss how these discoveries may help to elucidate the etiology of diseases and the criteria necessary to establish a causal association between a virus and a disease. PMID:25902566

  20. Exploring Causal Models of Educational Achievement.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Parkerson, Jo Ann; And Others

    1984-01-01

    This article evaluates five causal model of educational productivity applied to learning science in a sample of 882 fifth through eighth graders. Each model explores the relationship between achievement and a combination of eight constructs: home environment, peer group, media, ability, social environment, time on task, motivation, and…

  1. Inductive Reasoning about Causally Transmitted Properties

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shafto, Patrick; Kemp, Charles; Bonawitz, Elizabeth Baraff; Coley, John D.; Tenenbaum, Joshua B.

    2008-01-01

    Different intuitive theories constrain and guide inferences in different contexts. Formalizing simple intuitive theories as probabilistic processes operating over structured representations, we present a new computational model of category-based induction about causally transmitted properties. A first experiment demonstrates undergraduates'…

  2. Causality and the stability of parallel flow

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chimonas, George

    1991-11-01

    The linearized theory of the stability of parallel flow is formulated in terms of causality theory. In this method the properties of the Fourier spectrum—the disturbances with real frequency ω—provide the stability criteria for a system. In particular, if the Fourier spectrum provides a complete cause-and-effect formulation, the flow is assuredly stable. This single restriction leads to the critical-level theorems for parallel flows in both stably and unstably stratified fluids, Howard's semicircle theorem, the Miles-Howard Richardson-number criterion, an extended semicircle theorem for unstable flows, and several other results concerning instabilities in fluids. The causal approach supersedes group-velocity concepts, and resolves the problems of defining upward- and downward-propagating signals in a rapidly varying medium. It also associates a causal behavior to scattering from a discontinuity or an interface. Causality is examined by subdividing the continuous fluid into a set of homogeneous intervals within which propagation and interfacial scattering can be explicitly computed. As the intervals are reduced toward infinitesimal size the solution for the continuous fluid is obtained.

  3. Simplicity and Probability in Causal Explanation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lombrozo, Tania

    2007-01-01

    What makes some explanations better than others? This paper explores the roles of simplicity and probability in evaluating competing causal explanations. Four experiments investigate the hypothesis that simpler explanations are judged both better and more likely to be true. In all experiments, simplicity is quantified as the number of causes…

  4. A Quantum Probability Model of Causal Reasoning

    PubMed Central

    Trueblood, Jennifer S.; Busemeyer, Jerome R.

    2012-01-01

    People can often outperform statistical methods and machine learning algorithms in situations that involve making inferences about the relationship between causes and effects. While people are remarkably good at causal reasoning in many situations, there are several instances where they deviate from expected responses. This paper examines three situations where judgments related to causal inference problems produce unexpected results and describes a quantum inference model based on the axiomatic principles of quantum probability theory that can explain these effects. Two of the three phenomena arise from the comparison of predictive judgments (i.e., the conditional probability of an effect given a cause) with diagnostic judgments (i.e., the conditional probability of a cause given an effect). The third phenomenon is a new finding examining order effects in predictive causal judgments. The quantum inference model uses the notion of incompatibility among different causes to account for all three phenomena. Psychologically, the model assumes that individuals adopt different points of view when thinking about different causes. The model provides good fits to the data and offers a coherent account for all three causal reasoning effects thus proving to be a viable new candidate for modeling human judgment. PMID:22593747

  5. Introducing Mechanics by Tapping Core Causal Knowledge

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Klaassen, Kees; Westra, Axel; Emmett, Katrina; Eijkelhof, Harrie; Lijnse, Piet

    2008-01-01

    This article concerns an outline of an introductory mechanics course. It is based on the argument that various uses of the concept of force (e.g. from Kepler, Newton and everyday life) share an explanatory strategy based on core causal knowledge. The strategy consists of (a) the idea that a force causes a deviation from how an object would move of…

  6. Component Abilities of Children's Causal Reasoning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Berzonsky, Michael D.

    1975-01-01

    Presents a study to determine, via scalogram analysis, whether there was a constant order in which children mastered six skills: understanding chance events, detecting incongruous causal relations, completing "because" statements, displaying a skeptical attitude, and explaining remote and familiar objects. Data were analyzed for 84 first-graders.…

  7. Causal and Teleological Explanations in Biology

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yip, Cheng-Wai

    2009-01-01

    A causal explanation in biology focuses on the mechanism by which a biological process is brought about, whereas a teleological explanation considers the end result, in the context of the survival of the organism, as a reason for certain biological processes or structures. There is a tendency among students to offer a teleological explanation…

  8. Causality and Teleology in High School Biology.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tamir, Pinchas

    1985-01-01

    Ability to distinguish between causal (cause-effect) and teleological (means-ends) explanations was measured in 1905 twelfth-grade biology students and found to be dependent on student knowledge. Although the inability to make these distinctions contributes to misconceptions in biology, appropriate instruction can easily remedy the problem. Sample…

  9. Comments: Causal Interpretations of Mediation Effects

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jo, Booil; Stuart, Elizabeth A.

    2012-01-01

    The authors thank Dr. Lindsay Page for providing a nice illustration of the use of the principal stratification framework to define causal effects, and a Bayesian model for effect estimation. They hope that her well-written article will help expose education researchers to these concepts and methods, and move the field of mediation analysis in…

  10. Causality, Confirmation, Credulity, and Structural Equation Modeling.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Biddle, Bruce J.; Marlin, Marjorie M.

    1987-01-01

    Defines structural equation modeling (SEM) and points out its relation to other more familiar data-analytic techniques, as well as some of the potentials and pitfalls of SEM in the analysis of developmental data. Discussion focuses on causal modeling, path diagrams, ordinary least-squares regression analysis, and powerful methods for model…

  11. Constructing Causal Diagrams to Learn Deliberation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Easterday, Matthew W.; Aleven, Vincent; Scheines, Richard; Carver, Sharon M.

    2009-01-01

    Policy problems like "What should we do about global warming?" are ill-defined in large part because we do not agree on a system to represent them the way we agree Algebra problems should be represented by equations. As a first step toward building a policy deliberation tutor, we investigated: (a) whether causal diagrams help students learn to…

  12. Connecting Scientific Reasoning and Causal Inference

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kuhn, Deanna; Dean, David, Jr.

    2004-01-01

    Literature on multivariable causal inference (MCI) and literature on scientific reasoning (SR) have proceeded almost entirely independently, although they in large part address the same phenomena. An effort is made to bring these paradigms into close enough alignment with one another to compare implications of the two lines of work and examine how…

  13. THE CHILD'S CONCEPTION OF PHYSICAL CAUSALITY.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    PIAGET, JEAN

    THE CHILD'S CONCEPTION OF PHYSICAL CAUSALITY WAS INVESTIGATED. THREE METHODS OF INVESTIGATION WERE USED. THE FIRST METHOD WAS PURELY VERBAL, AND CONSISTED OF A SERIES OF QUESTIONS DIRECTED TO CHILDREN, REGARDING SOME NATURAL PHENOMENON. THE SECOND METHOD INVOLVED A HALF-VERBAL, HALF-PRACTICAL APPROACH, WHEREIN A SPECIFIC REFERENCE TO NATURAL…

  14. Time and Order Effects on Causal Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Alvarado, Angelica; Jara, Elvia; Vila, Javier; Rosas, Juan M.

    2006-01-01

    Five experiments were conducted to explore trial order and retention interval effects upon causal predictive judgments. Experiment 1 found that participants show a strong effect of trial order when a stimulus was sequentially paired with two different outcomes compared to a condition where both outcomes were presented intermixed. Experiment 2…

  15. Linear Response Laws and Causality in Electrodynamics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yuffa, Alex J.; Scales, John A.

    2012-01-01

    Linear response laws and causality (the effect cannot precede the cause) are of fundamental importance in physics. In the context of classical electrodynamics, students often have a difficult time grasping these concepts because the physics is obscured by the intermingling of the time and frequency domains. In this paper, we analyse the linear…

  16. Interpretational Confounding or Confounded Interpretations of Causal Indicators?

    PubMed Central

    Bainter, Sierra A.; Bollen, Kenneth A.

    2014-01-01

    In measurement theory causal indicators are controversial and little-understood. Methodological disagreement concerning causal indicators has centered on the question of whether causal indicators are inherently sensitive to interpretational confounding, which occurs when the empirical meaning of a latent construct departs from the meaning intended by a researcher. This article questions the validity of evidence used to claim that causal indicators are inherently susceptible to interpretational confounding. Further, a simulation study demonstrates that causal indicator coefficients are stable across correctly-specified models. Determining the suitability of causal indicators has implications for the way we conceptualize measurement and build and evaluate measurement models. PMID:25530730

  17. Development of Database for Accident Analysis in Indian Mines

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tripathy, Debi Prasad; Guru Raghavendra Reddy, K.

    2015-08-01

    Mining is a hazardous industry and high accident rates associated with underground mining is a cause of deep concern. Technological developments notwithstanding, rate of fatal accidents and reportable incidents have not shown corresponding levels of decline. This paper argues that adoption of appropriate safety standards by both mine management and the government may result in appreciable reduction in accident frequency. This can be achieved by using the technology in improving the working conditions, sensitising workers and managers about causes and prevention of accidents. Inputs required for a detailed analysis of an accident include information on location, time, type, cost of accident, victim, nature of injury, personal and environmental factors etc. Such information can be generated from data available in the standard coded accident report form. This paper presents a web based application for accident analysis in Indian mines during 2001-2013. An accident database (SafeStat) prototype based on Intranet of the TCP/IP agreement, as developed by the authors, is also discussed.

  18. Single pilot IFR accident data analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Harris, D. F.; Morrisete, J. A.

    1982-01-01

    The aircraft accident data recorded and maintained by the National Transportation Safety Board for 1964 to 1979 were analyzed to determine what problems exist in the general aviation single pilot instrument flight rules environment. A previous study conducted in 1978 for the years 1964 to 1975 provided a basis for comparison. The purpose was to determine what changes, if any, have occurred in trends and cause-effect relationships reported in the earlier study. The increasing numbers have been tied to measures of activity to produce accident rates which in turn were analyzed in terms of change. Where anomalies or unusually high accident rates were encountered, further analysis was conducted to isolate pertinent patterns of cause factors and/or experience levels of involved pilots. The bulk of the effort addresses accidents in the landing phase of operations. A detailed analysis was performed on controlled/uncontrolled collisions and their unique attributes delineated. Estimates of day vs. night general aviation activity and accident rates were obtained.

  19. Road Traffic Accident Analysis of Ajmer City Using Remote Sensing and GIS Technology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bhalla, P.; Tripathi, S.; Palria, S.

    2014-12-01

    With advancement in technology, new and sophisticated models of vehicle are available and their numbers are increasing day by day. A traffic accident has multi-facet characteristics associated with it. In India 93% of crashes occur due to Human induced factor (wholly or partly). For proper traffic accident analysis use of GIS technology has become an inevitable tool. The traditional accident database is a summary spreadsheet format using codes and mileposts to denote location, type and severity of accidents. Geo-referenced accident database is location-referenced. It incorporates a GIS graphical interface with the accident information to allow for query searches on various accident attributes. Ajmer city, headquarter of Ajmer district, Rajasthan has been selected as the study area. According to Police records, 1531 accidents occur during 2009-2013. Maximum accident occurs in 2009 and the maximum death in 2013. Cars, jeeps, auto, pickup and tempo are mostly responsible for accidents and that the occurrence of accidents is mostly concentrated between 4PM to 10PM. GIS has proved to be a good tool for analyzing multifaceted nature of accidents. While road safety is a critical issue, yet it is handled in an adhoc manner. This Study is a demonstration of application of GIS for developing an efficient database on road accidents taking Ajmer City as a study. If such type of database is developed for other cities, a proper analysis of accidents can be undertaken and suitable management strategies for traffic regulation can be successfully proposed.

  20. Multivariable Mendelian randomization: the use of pleiotropic genetic variants to estimate causal effects.

    PubMed

    Burgess, Stephen; Thompson, Simon G

    2015-02-15

    A conventional Mendelian randomization analysis assesses the causal effect of a risk factor on an outcome by using genetic variants that are solely associated with the risk factor of interest as instrumental variables. However, in some cases, such as the case of triglyceride level as a risk factor for cardiovascular disease, it may be difficult to find a relevant genetic variant that is not also associated with related risk factors, such as other lipid fractions. Such a variant is known as pleiotropic. In this paper, we propose an extension of Mendelian randomization that uses multiple genetic variants associated with several measured risk factors to simultaneously estimate the causal effect of each of the risk factors on the outcome. This "multivariable Mendelian randomization" approach is similar to the simultaneous assessment of several treatments in a factorial randomized trial. In this paper, methods for estimating the causal effects are presented and compared using real and simulated data, and the assumptions necessary for a valid multivariable Mendelian randomization analysis are discussed. Subject to these assumptions, we demonstrate that triglyceride-related pathways have a causal effect on the risk of coronary heart disease independent of the effects of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol. PMID:25632051

  1. Multivariable Mendelian Randomization: The Use of Pleiotropic Genetic Variants to Estimate Causal Effects

    PubMed Central

    Burgess, Stephen; Thompson, Simon G.

    2015-01-01

    A conventional Mendelian randomization analysis assesses the causal effect of a risk factor on an outcome by using genetic variants that are solely associated with the risk factor of interest as instrumental variables. However, in some cases, such as the case of triglyceride level as a risk factor for cardiovascular disease, it may be difficult to find a relevant genetic variant that is not also associated with related risk factors, such as other lipid fractions. Such a variant is known as pleiotropic. In this paper, we propose an extension of Mendelian randomization that uses multiple genetic variants associated with several measured risk factors to simultaneously estimate the causal effect of each of the risk factors on the outcome. This “multivariable Mendelian randomization” approach is similar to the simultaneous assessment of several treatments in a factorial randomized trial. In this paper, methods for estimating the causal effects are presented and compared using real and simulated data, and the assumptions necessary for a valid multivariable Mendelian randomization analysis are discussed. Subject to these assumptions, we demonstrate that triglyceride-related pathways have a causal effect on the risk of coronary heart disease independent of the effects of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol. PMID:25632051

  2. Physics in Accident Investigations.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brake, Mary L.

    1981-01-01

    Describes physics formulas which can be used by law enforcement officials to determine the possible velocity of vehicles involved in traffic accidents. These include, among others, the slide to stop-level road, slide to stop-sloping roadway, and slide to stop-two different surfaces formulas. (JN)

  3. A comparison of the hazard perception ability of accident-involved and accident-free motorcycle riders.

    PubMed

    Cheng, Andy S K; Ng, Terry C K; Lee, Hoe C

    2011-07-01

    conceptualizing the influence of different driving behaviors so as to enrich our understanding of the role of human factors in road accidents and consequently develop effective countermeasures to prevent traffic accidents involving motorcycles. PMID:21545879

  4. Supporting inquiry learning by promoting normative understanding of multivariable causality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keselman, Alla

    2003-11-01

    Early adolescents may lack the cognitive and metacognitive skills necessary for effective inquiry learning. In particular, they are likely to have a nonnormative mental model of multivariable causality in which effects of individual variables are neither additive nor consistent. Described here is a software-based intervention designed to facilitate students' metalevel and performance-level inquiry skills by enhancing their understanding of multivariable causality. Relative to an exploration-only group, sixth graders who practiced predicting an outcome (earthquake risk) based on multiple factors demonstrated increased attention to evidence, improved metalevel appreciation of effective strategies, and a trend toward consistent use of a controlled comparison strategy. Sixth graders who also received explicit instruction in making predictions based on multiple factors showed additional improvement in their ability to compare multiple instances as a basis for inferences and constructed the most accurate knowledge of the system. Gains were maintained in transfer tasks. The cognitive skills and metalevel understanding examined here are essential to inquiry learning.

  5. Causality in medicine: the case of tumours and viruses.

    PubMed Central

    Vonka, V

    2000-01-01

    Clarification of the aetiology of chronic human diseases such as atherosclerosis or cancer is one of the dominant topics in contemporary medical research. It is believed that identification of the causal factors will enable more efficient prevention and diagnosis of these diseases and, in some instances, also permit more effective therapy. The task is difficult because of the multistep and multifactorial origin of these diseases. A special case in contemporary aetiological studies is definition of the role of viruses in the pathogenesis of human cancer. Virus-associated cancer develops only in a small minority of infected subjects, which implies that, if the virus does play a role in the pathogenesis of the malignancy, other factors must also be involved. In this paper the author attempts to review the present methodological approaches to aetiological studies of chronic diseases, discusses the role of criteria for identifying causal relationships and proposes guidelines that might help to determine the role of viruses in human cancer. PMID:11205344

  6. Analysis of Occupational Accident Fatalities and Injuries Among Male Group in Iran Between 2008 and 2012

    PubMed Central

    Alizadeh, Seyed Shamseddin; Mortazavi, Seyed Bagher; Sepehri, Mohammad Mehdi

    2015-01-01

    Background: Because of occupational accidents, permanent disabilities and deaths occur and economic and workday losses emerge. Objectives: The purpose of the present study was to investigate the factors responsible for occupational accidents occurred in Iran. Patients and Methods: The current study analyzed 1464 occupational accidents recorded by the Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs’ offices in Iran during 2008 - 2012. At first, general understanding of accidents was obtained using descriptive statistics. Afterwards, the chi-square test and Cramer’s V statistic (Vc) were used to determine the association between factors influencing the type of injury as occupational accident outcomes. Results: There was no significant association between marital status and time of day with the type of injury. However, activity sector, cause of accident, victim’s education, age of victim and victim’s experience were significantly associated with the type of injury. Conclusions: Successful accident prevention relies largely on knowledge about the causes of accidents. In any accident control activity, particularly in occupational accidents, correctly identifying high-risk groups and factors influencing accidents is the key to successful interventions. Results of this study can cause to increase accident awareness and enable workplace’s management to select and prioritize problem areas and safety system weakness in workplaces. PMID:26568848

  7. Exploratory Causal Analysis in Bivariate Time Series Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McCracken, James M.

    Many scientific disciplines rely on observational data of systems for which it is difficult (or impossible) to implement controlled experiments and data analysis techniques are required for identifying causal information and relationships directly from observational data. This need has lead to the development of many different time series causality approaches and tools including transfer entropy, convergent cross-mapping (CCM), and Granger causality statistics. In this thesis, the existing time series causality method of CCM is extended by introducing a new method called pairwise asymmetric inference (PAI). It is found that CCM may provide counter-intuitive causal inferences for simple dynamics with strong intuitive notions of causality, and the CCM causal inference can be a function of physical parameters that are seemingly unrelated to the existence of a driving relationship in the system. For example, a CCM causal inference might alternate between ''voltage drives current'' and ''current drives voltage'' as the frequency of the voltage signal is changed in a series circuit with a single resistor and inductor. PAI is introduced to address both of these limitations. Many of the current approaches in the times series causality literature are not computationally straightforward to apply, do not follow directly from assumptions of probabilistic causality, depend on assumed models for the time series generating process, or rely on embedding procedures. A new approach, called causal leaning, is introduced in this work to avoid these issues. The leaning is found to provide causal inferences that agree with intuition for both simple systems and more complicated empirical examples, including space weather data sets. The leaning may provide a clearer interpretation of the results than those from existing time series causality tools. A practicing analyst can explore the literature to find many proposals for identifying drivers and causal connections in times series data

  8. Willingness to use safety belt and levels of injury in car accidents.

    PubMed

    de Lapparent, Matthieu

    2008-05-01

    In this article, we develop a bivariate ordered Probit model to analyze the decision to fasten the safety belt in a car and the resulting severity of accidents if it happens. The approach takes into account the fact that the decision to fasten the safety belt has a direct causal effect on the category of injury if an accident happens. Our application to a sample drawn from the database of French accident reports in 2003 for three populations of car users (drivers, front passengers, rear passengers) shows that fastening the safety belt is significantly related to a decrease in severe injuries but it shows also that these car users compensate partly for this safety benefit. Furthermore, it is observed that demographic characteristics of car users, as well as transport facilities, play important roles in decisions to fasten safety belts and in the eventual resulting accident injuries. PMID:18460371

  9. Spatiotemporal causal modeling for the management of Dengue Fever

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, Hwa-Lung; Huang, Tailin; Lee, Chieh-Han

    2015-04-01

    Increasing climatic extremes have caused growing concerns about the health effects and disease outbreaks. The association between climate variation and the occurrence of epidemic diseases play an important role on a country's public health systems. Part of the impacts are direct casualties associated with the increasing frequency and intensity of typhoons, the proliferation of disease vectors and the short-term increase of clinic visits on gastro-intestinal discomforts, diarrhea, dermatosis, or psychological trauma. Other impacts come indirectly from the influence of disasters on the ecological and socio-economic systems, including the changes of air/water quality, living environment and employment condition. Previous risk assessment studies on dengue fever focus mostly on climatic and non-climatic factors and their association with vectors' reproducing pattern. The public-health implication may appear simple. Considering the seasonal changes and regional differences, however, the causality of the impacts is full of uncertainties. Without further investigation, the underlying dengue fever risk dynamics may not be assessed accurately. The objective of this study is to develop an epistemic framework for assessing dynamic dengue fever risk across space and time. The proposed framework integrates cross-departmental data, including public-health databases, precipitation data over time and various socio-economic data. We explore public-health issues induced by typhoon through literature review and spatiotemporal analytic techniques on public health databases. From those data, we identify relevant variables and possible causal relationships, and their spatiotemporal patterns derived from our proposed spatiotemporal techniques. Eventually, we create a spatiotemporal causal network and a framework for modeling dynamic dengue fever risk.

  10. Accidents due to falls from roof slabs.

    PubMed

    Rudelli, Bruno Alves; Silva, Marcelo Valerio Alabarce da; Akkari, Miguel; Santili, Claudio

    2013-01-01

    CONTEXT AND OBJECTIVE Falls from the roof slabs of houses are accidents of high potential severity that occur in large Brazilian cities and often affect children and adolescents. The aims of this study were to characterize the factors that predispose towards this type of fall involving children and adolescents, quantify the severity of associated lesions and suggest preventive measures. DESIGN AND SETTING Descriptive observational prospective longitudinal study in two hospitals in the metropolitan region of São Paulo. METHODS Data were collected from 29 cases of falls from roof slabs involving children and adolescents between October 2008 and October 2009. RESULTS Cases involving males were more prevalent, accounting for 84%. The predominant age group was schoolchildren (7 to 12 years old; 44%). Leisure activities were most frequently being practiced on the roof slab at the time of the fall (86%), and flying a kite was the most prevalent game (37.9%). In 72% of the cases, the children were unaccompanied by an adult responsible for them. Severe conditions such as multiple trauma and traumatic brain injuries resulted from 79% of the accidents. CONCLUSION Falls from roof slabs are accidents of high potential severity, and preventive measures aimed towards informing parents and guardians about the dangers and risk factors associated with this type of accident are needed, along with physical protective measures, such as low walls around the slab and gates with locks to restrict free access to these places. PMID:23903263

  11. Perceived Causalities of Physical Events Are Influenced by Social Cues

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zhou, Jifan; Huang, Xiang; Jin, Xinyi; Liang, Junying; Shui, Rende; Shen, Mowei

    2012-01-01

    In simple mechanical events, we can directly perceive causal interactions of the physical objects. Physical cues (especially spatiotemporal features of the display) are found to associate with causal perception. Here, we demonstrate that cues of a completely different domain--"social cues"--also impact the causal perception of "physical" events:…

  12. Preschool Children Learn about Causal Structure from Conditional Interventions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schulz, Laura E.; Gopnik, Alison; Glymour, Clark

    2007-01-01

    The conditional intervention principle is a formal principle that relates patterns of interventions and outcomes to causal structure. It is a central assumption of experimental design and the causal Bayes net formalism. Two studies suggest that preschoolers can use the conditional intervention principle to distinguish causal chains, common cause…

  13. A Bayesian Theory of Sequential Causal Learning and Abstract Transfer

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lu, Hongjing; Rojas, Randall R.; Beckers, Tom; Yuille, Alan L.

    2016-01-01

    Two key research issues in the field of causal learning are how people acquire causal knowledge when observing data that are presented sequentially, and the level of abstraction at which learning takes place. Does sequential causal learning solely involve the acquisition of specific cause-effect links, or do learners also acquire knowledge about…

  14. The Specification of Causal Models with Tetrad IV: A Review

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Landsheer, J. A.

    2010-01-01

    Tetrad IV is a program designed for the specification of causal models. It is specifically designed to search for causal relations, but also offers the possibility to estimate the parameters of a structural equation model. It offers a remarkable graphical user interface, which facilitates building, evaluating, and searching for causal models. The…

  15. Plus or Minus Causal Conjunctions: An Aid to Reading Comprehension.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Williams, Huw

    1984-01-01

    Causal conjunctions that form a grammatical bridge between simple and complex sentences can be either plus or minus causal conjunctions. The category of plus causal conjunctions includes a "because" group (since, as, because of, owing to, due to, as a result of, as a consequence of) and a "so" group (therefore, hence, consequently, accordingly, as…

  16. Causal and Semantic Relatedness in Discourse Understanding and Representation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wolfe, Michael B. W.; Magliano, Joseph P.; Larsen, Benjamin

    2005-01-01

    Processing time and memory for sentences were examined as a function of the degree of semantic and causal relatedness between sentences in short narratives. In Experiments 1-2B, semantic and causal relatedness between sentence pairs was independently manipulated. Causal relatedness was assessed through pretesting and semantic relatedness was…

  17. Mind and Meaning: Piaget and Vygotsky on Causal Explanation.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Beilin, Harry

    1996-01-01

    Piaget's theory has been characterized as descriptive and not explanatory, not qualifying as causal explanation. Piaget was consistent in showing how his theory was both explanatory and causal. Vygotsky also endorsed causal-genetic explanation but, on the basis of knowledge of only Piaget's earliest works, he claimed that Piaget's theory was not…

  18. Functional neuroimaging can support causal claims about brain function

    PubMed Central

    Weber, Matthew J.; Thompson-Schill, Sharon L.

    2013-01-01

    Cognitive neuroscientists habitually deny that functional neuroimaging can furnish causal information about the relationship between brain events and behavior. However, imaging studies do provide causal information about those relationships—though not causal certainty. Although popular portrayals of functional neuroimaging tend to attribute too much inferential power to the technique, we should restrain ourselves from ascribing it too little. PMID:20201629

  19. Interpretational Confounding or Confounded Interpretations of Causal Indicators?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bainter, Sierra A.; Bollen, Kenneth A.

    2014-01-01

    In measurement theory, causal indicators are controversial and little understood. Methodological disagreement concerning causal indicators has centered on the question of whether causal indicators are inherently sensitive to interpretational confounding, which occurs when the empirical meaning of a latent construct departs from the meaning…

  20. A Quantitative Causal Model Theory of Conditional Reasoning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fernbach, Philip M.; Erb, Christopher D.

    2013-01-01

    The authors propose and test a causal model theory of reasoning about conditional arguments with causal content. According to the theory, the acceptability of modus ponens (MP) and affirming the consequent (AC) reflect the conditional likelihood of causes and effects based on a probabilistic causal model of the scenario being judged. Acceptability…

  1. How to Be Causal: Time, Spacetime and Spectra

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kinsler, Paul

    2011-01-01

    I explain a simple definition of causality in widespread use, and indicate how it links to the Kramers-Kronig relations. The specification of causality in terms of temporal differential equations then shows us the way to write down dynamical models so that their causal nature "in the sense used here" should be obvious to all. To extend existing…

  2. CAUSAL ANALYSIS AND PROBABILITY DATA: EXAMPLES FOR IMPAIRED AQUATIC CONDITION

    EPA Science Inventory

    Causal analysis is plausible reasoning applied to diagnosing observed effect(s), for example, diagnosing

    cause of biological impairment in a stream. Sir Bradford Hill basically defined the application of causal

    analysis when he enumerated the elements of causality f...

  3. Applying STAMP in Accident Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Leveson, Nancy; Daouk, Mirna; Dulac, Nicolas; Marais, Karen

    2003-01-01

    Accident models play a critical role in accident investigation and analysis. Most traditional models are based on an underlying chain of events. These models, however, have serious limitations when used for complex, socio-technical systems. Previously, Leveson proposed a new accident model (STAMP) based on system theory. In STAMP, the basic concept is not an event but a constraint. This paper shows how STAMP can be applied to accident analysis using three different views or models of the accident process and proposes a notation for describing this process.

  4. [Equestrian accidents in children].

    PubMed

    Giebel, G; Braun, K; Mittelmeier, W

    1993-11-01

    In a retrospective study we reviewed 262 horse riding related injuries in children younger than 16 which were treated between 1975 and 1989 at the Section of Traumatology in the Department of Surgery, University Hospital Homburg/Saar. In 155 of these accidents, detailed information was gained via a questionnaire. The typical patient profile was that of young female equestrians with little experience and little weekly riding practice, without practicing falling-exercises and warming up often using different horses. At the time of the accident only 59% were wearing a head protection. Most accidents happened in the summer months in the afternoon during leisure riding on a large familiar horse in the riding hall. Apart from the typical accidents like falling of the horse (64.9%) and falling with the horse (5.7%) accidents in handling the horse were of special significance: Kick by horse's hoof (11.8%), being stepped by horse (3.8%), horsebite (7.3%) and injuries of horse's bridle had their own pattern of injuries. Injuries of the distal parts of the upper extremity are preeminent in falling of the horse, whilst in falling with the horse head injuries and shoulder injuries are preeminent. Remarkably often injuries of kick by horse's hoof were causing sometimes even dangerous head injuries (41.6%). Overall in horse riding related injuries in childhood superficial soft tissue injuries (48.6%) and fractures (30.6%) were predominant. Fractures of the clavicle which are well known as a riding injury proved to be typical for a fall with the horse, whilst a fractured vertebra was only seen once amongst the 262 children treated. The severity of the injuries was lower than expected: In 85.1% of all the injuries only one body region was injured, 90.1% could be assigned to an injury severity score (ISS) of 1-3. Ponyriders had less severe injuries than riders of large horses. One fatal accident happened in handling a horse, in these situations preventive measures are often

  5. Loss of pumping accident limit calculation for Savannah River Reactor

    SciTech Connect

    Paul, P.K.; Barbour, K.L. )

    1992-01-01

    For the Savannah River Site production reactors, the design basis accident reactor power limit ensures that if a double-ended guillotine break (DEGB) in a secondary cooling water pipe were to occur, the reactor will shut down safely. The primary reactor coolant is heavy water (D{sub 2}O) with secondary light water (H{sub 2}O) cooling. The accident scenario is a DEGB in one of two secondary coolant inlet header pipes with several assumed single failures. The recycled primary coolant loses its cooling, and the reactor core temperature begins to rise. Another possible accident is a DEGB in one of two heat exchanger secondary coolant effluent header pipes. The inlet header break is slightly more limiting than the effluent header break. Upon break detection, emergency shutdown begins and the emergency cooling system (ECS) activates. The accident scenario was constructed with regard to physical, mechanical, and human factors. The computer code TRAC simulates the accident.

  6. A catastrophe-theory model for simulating behavioral accidents

    SciTech Connect

    Souder, W.E.

    1988-01-01

    Behavioral accidents are a particular type of accident. They are caused by inappropriate individual behaviors and faulty reactions. Catastrophe theory is a means for mathematically modeling the dynamic processes that underlie behavioral accidents. Based on a comprehensive data base of mining accidents, a computerized catastrophe model has been developed by the Bureau of Mines. This model systematically links individual psychological, group behavioral, and mine environmental variables with other accident causing factors. It answers several longstanding questions about why some normally safe behaving persons may spontaneously engage in unsafe acts that have high risks of serious injury. Field tests with the model indicate that it has three imnportant uses: it can be used as a effective training aid for increasing employee safety consciousness; it can be used as a management laboratory for testing decision alternatives and policies; and it can be used to help design the most effective work teams.

  7. Causality Is Inconsistent With Quantum Field Theory

    SciTech Connect

    Wolf, Fred Alan

    2011-11-29

    Causality in quantum field theory means the vanishing of commutators for spacelike separated fields (VCSSF). I will show that VCSSF is not tenable. For VCSSF to be tenable, and therefore, to have both retarded and advanced propagators vanish in the elsewhere, a superposition of negative energy antiparticle and positive energy particle propagators, traveling forward in time, and a superposition of negative energy particle and positive energy antiparticle propagators, traveling backward in time, are required. Hence VCSSF predicts non-vanishing probabilities for both negative energy particles in the forward-through-time direction and positive energy antiparticles in the backwards-through-time direction. Therefore, since VCSSF is unrealizable in a stable universe, tachyonic propagation must occur in denial of causality.

  8. Localizing epileptic seizure onsets with Granger causality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Adhikari, Bhim M.; Epstein, Charles M.; Dhamala, Mukesh

    2013-09-01

    Accurate localization of the epileptic seizure onset zones (SOZs) is crucial for successful surgery, which usually depends on the information obtained from intracranial electroencephalography (IEEG) recordings. The visual criteria and univariate methods of analyzing IEEG recordings have not always produced clarity on the SOZs for resection and ultimate seizure freedom for patients. Here, to contribute to improving the localization of the SOZs and to understanding the mechanism of seizure propagation over the brain, we applied spectral interdependency methods to IEEG time series recorded from patients during seizures. We found that the high-frequency (>80 Hz) Granger causality (GC) occurs before the onset of any visible ictal activity and causal relationships involve the recording electrodes where clinically identifiable seizures later develop. These results suggest that high-frequency oscillatory network activities precede and underlie epileptic seizures, and that GC spectral measures derived from IEEG can assist in precise delineation of seizure onset times and SOZs.

  9. The Causal Effects of Father Absence.

    PubMed

    McLanahan, Sara; Tach, Laura; Schneider, Daniel

    2013-07-01

    The literature on father absence is frequently criticized for its use of cross-sectional data and methods that fail to take account of possible omitted variable bias and reverse causality. We review studies that have responded to this critique by employing a variety of innovative research designs to identify the causal effect of father absence, including studies using lagged dependent variable models, growth curve models, individual fixed effects models, sibling fixed effects models, natural experiments, and propensity score matching models. Our assessment is that studies using more rigorous designs continue to find negative effects of father absence on offspring well-being, although the magnitude of these effects is smaller than what is found using traditional cross-sectional designs. The evidence is strongest and most consistent for outcomes such as high school graduation, children's social-emotional adjustment, and adult mental health. PMID:24489431

  10. The Causal Effects of Father Absence

    PubMed Central

    McLanahan, Sara; Tach, Laura; Schneider, Daniel

    2014-01-01

    The literature on father absence is frequently criticized for its use of cross-sectional data and methods that fail to take account of possible omitted variable bias and reverse causality. We review studies that have responded to this critique by employing a variety of innovative research designs to identify the causal effect of father absence, including studies using lagged dependent variable models, growth curve models, individual fixed effects models, sibling fixed effects models, natural experiments, and propensity score matching models. Our assessment is that studies using more rigorous designs continue to find negative effects of father absence on offspring well-being, although the magnitude of these effects is smaller than what is found using traditional cross-sectional designs. The evidence is strongest and most consistent for outcomes such as high school graduation, children’s social-emotional adjustment, and adult mental health. PMID:24489431

  11. Sentencing goals, causal attributions, ideology, and personality.

    PubMed

    Carroll, J S; Perkowitz, W T; Lurigio, A J; Weaver, F M

    1987-01-01

    Disparity in sentencing of criminals has been related to a variety of individual difference variables. We propose a framework establishing resonances or coherent patterns among sentencing goals, causal attributions, ideology, and personality. Two studies are described, one with law and criminology students, the other with probation officers. Relations among the different types of variables reveal two resonances among both students and officers. One comprises various conservative and moralistic elements: a tough, punitive stance toward crime; belief in individual causality for crime; high scores on authoritarianism, dogmatism, and internal locus of control; lower moral stage; and political conservatism. The second comprises various liberal elements: rehabilitation, belief in economic and other external determinants of crime, higher moral stage, and belief in the powers and responsibilities of government to correct social problems. Implications of these results are discussed for individual differences in sentencing, attribution theory, and attempts to reduce disparity. PMID:3820064

  12. The Causality of Evolution on Different Fitness Landscapes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vyawahare, Saurabh; Austin, Robert; Zhang, Qiucen; Kim, Hyunsung; Bestoso, John

    2013-03-01

    Evolution of antibiotic resistance is a growing problem. One major reason why most antibiotics fail is because of mutations on drug targets (e.g. essential enzymes). Sequencing of clinically resistant isolates have shown that multiple mutational-hotspots exist in coding regions, which could potentially prohibit the binding of drugs. However, it is not clear whether the appearance of each mutation is random or influenced by other factors. In this paper, we compare evolution of resistance to ciprofloxacin from two distinct but well characterized genetic backgrounds. By combining our recently developed evolution reactor and deep whole-genome sequencing, we show different alleles of σs factor lead to fixation of different mutations in gyrA gene that confer ciprofloxacin resistance to bacteria Escherichia coli. Such causality of evolution in different genes provides an opportunity to control the evolution of antibiotic resistance. Sponsored by the NCI/NIH Physical Sciences Oncology Centers

  13. [Cardinal errors in expert opinions for the statutory accident insurance].

    PubMed

    Ludolph, E

    2015-11-01

    Expert opinions are subject to restrictions and must abide by the rules laid down by the legal system, much more so than therapies. Cardinal errors in expert opinions for the statutory accident insurance (GUV) are sometimes mistakes which can be found in all forms of expert opinions but in some cases where special questions of social law and the statutory accident insurance are concerned. The first group of mistakes are the differences between the requirements of an expert and a therapist with respect to the certainty of expert opinions, the responsibility of the commissioning authority alone for the non-medical components of an expert opinion, the generally valid principle of only giving opinions on areas of proven expertise and the extremely important aspect of personal responsibility. The second group of mistakes involve specific questions for the statutory accident insurance, such as the principles of causality, the rules of evidence, the estimation of the consequences of an accident with respect to reduction in earning capacity (MdE) and the significance of pre-existing damage. PMID:26446721

  14. Loop anomalies in the causal approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grigore, Dan-Radu

    2015-01-01

    We consider gauge models in the causal approach and study one-loop contributions to the chronological products and the anomalies they produce. We prove that in order greater than 4 there are no one-loop anomalies. Next we analyze one-loop anomalies in the second- and third-order of the perturbation theory. We prove that the even parity contributions (with respect to parity) do not produce anomalies; for the odd parity contributions we reobtain the well-known result.

  15. Causality and the effective range expansion

    SciTech Connect

    Hammer, H.-W.; Lee, Dean

    2010-10-15

    We derive the generalization of Wigner's causality bounds and Bethe's integral formula for the effective range parameter to arbitrary dimension and arbitrary angular momentum. We also discuss the impact of these constraints on the separation of low- and high-momentum scales and universality in low-energy scattering. Some of our results were summarized earlier in a letter publication. In this work, we present full derivations and several detailed examples.

  16. Factors Associated with Infant Feeding Methods after the Nuclear Power Plant Accident in Fukushima: Data from the Pregnancy and Birth Survey for the Fiscal Year 2011 Fukushima Health Management Survey.

    PubMed

    Ishii, Kayoko; Goto, Aya; Ota, Misao; Yasumura, Seiji; Abe, Masafumi; Fujimori, Keiya

    2016-08-01

    Objectives The objective of this study was to assess the frequency of and factors associated with infant feeding methods after the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident using data from the Fukushima Health Management Survey. Methods We conducted an anonymous self-administered questionnaire survey of 16,001 women who gave birth around the time of the Great East Japan Earthquake and registered their pregnancies at Fukushima Prefecture municipal offices between August 1, 2010 and July 31, 2011. The responses of 8366 women were analyzed. Chi square tests and multiple logistic regression analysis were used to compare various factors between women who had formula-fed their children because of concern regarding radioactive contamination or other reasons and those who had breastfed exclusively. Results The percentage of women who had breastfed exclusively was 30.9 %. The percentage of women who had both breastfed and formula-fed or formula-fed exclusively was 69.1 %, of which 20.3 % formula-fed because of concern regarding radioactive contamination of breast milk. The use of formula feeding because of concern about radioactive contamination was significantly higher in women who had resided within the evacuation area and those whose regular antenatal care had been interrupted. The use of formula feeding for other reasons was significantly higher in women who had resided within the evacuation area and lower for those who had willingly switched to another medical institution. Conclusions for Practice Our results suggest the importance of providing breastfeeding support to women who are forced to evacuate or whose antenatal care is interrupted after a disaster. PMID:27028325

  17. How accurate is accident data in road safety research? An application of vehicle black box data regarding pedestrian-to-taxi accidents in Korea.

    PubMed

    Chung, Younshik; Chang, IlJoon

    2015-11-01

    Recently, the introduction of vehicle black box systems or in-vehicle video event data recorders enables the driver to use the system to collect more accurate crash information such as location, time, and situation at the pre-crash and crash moment, which can be analyzed to find the crash causal factors more accurately. This study presents the vehicle black box system in brief and its application status in Korea. Based on the crash data obtained from the vehicle black box system, this study analyzes the accuracy of the crash data collected from existing road crash data recording method, which has been recorded by police officers based on accident parties' statements or eyewitness's account. The analysis results show that the crash data observed by the existing method have an average of 84.48m of spatial difference and standard deviation of 157.75m as well as average 29.05min of temporal error and standard deviation of 19.24min. Additionally, the average and standard deviation of crash speed errors were found to be 9.03km/h and 7.21km/h, respectively. PMID:26298271

  18. A causal dispositional account of fitness.

    PubMed

    Triviño, Vanessa; Nuño de la Rosa, Laura

    2016-09-01

    The notion of fitness is usually equated to reproductive success. However, this actualist approach presents some difficulties, mainly the explanatory circularity problem, which have lead philosophers of biology to offer alternative definitions in which fitness and reproductive success are distinguished. In this paper, we argue  that none of these alternatives is satisfactory and, inspired by Mumford and Anjum's dispositional theory of causation, we offer a definition of fitness as a causal dispositional property. We argue that, under this framework, the distinctiveness that biologists usually attribute to fitness-namely, the fact that fitness is something different from both the physical traits of an organism and the number of offspring it leaves-can be explained, and the main problems associated with the concept of fitness can be solved. Firstly, we introduce Mumford and Anjum's dispositional theory of causation and present our definition of fitness as a causal disposition. We explain in detail each of the elements involved in our definition, namely: the relationship between fitness and the functional dispositions that compose it, the emergent character of fitness, and the context-sensitivity of fitness. Finally, we explain how fitness and realized fitness, as well as expected and realized fitness are distinguished in our approach to fitness as a causal disposition. PMID:27338570

  19. Causal tapestries for psychology and physics.

    PubMed

    Sulis, William H

    2012-04-01

    Archetypal dynamics is a formal approach to the modeling of information flow in complex systems used to study emergence. It is grounded in the Fundamental Triad of realisation (system), interpretation (archetype) and representation (formal model). Tapestries play a fundamental role in the framework of archetypal dynamics as a formal representational system. They represent information flow by means of multi layered, recursive, interlinked graphical structures that express both geometry (form or sign) and logic (semantics). This paper presents a detailed mathematical description of a specific tapestry model, the causal tapestry, selected for use in describing behaving systems such as appear in psychology and physics from the standpoint of Process Theory. Causal tapestries express an explicit Lorentz invariant transient now generated by means of a reality game. Observables are represented by tapestry informons while subjective or hidden components (for example intellectual and emotional processes) are incorporated into the reality game that determines the tapestry dynamics. As a specific example, we formulate a random graphical dynamical system using causal tapestries. PMID:22452929

  20. Note on gauge invariance and causal propagation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Henneaux, Marc; Rahman, Rakibur

    2013-09-01

    Interactions of gauge-invariant systems are severely constrained by several consistency requirements. One is the preservation of the number of gauge symmetries, another is causal propagation. For lower-spin fields, the emphasis is usually put on gauge invariance that happens to be very selective by itself. We demonstrate with an explicit example, however, that gauge invariance, albeit indispensable for constructing interactions, may not suffice as a consistency condition. The chosen example that exhibits this feature is the theory of a massless spin-3/2 field coupled to electromagnetism. We show that this system admits an electromagnetic background in which the spin-3/2 gauge field may move faster than light. Requiring causal propagation rules out otherwise allowed gauge-invariant couplings. This emphasizes the importance of causality analysis as an independent test for a system of interacting gauge fields. We comment on the implications of allowing new degrees of freedom and nonlocality in a theory, on higher-derivative gravity and Vasiliev’s higher-spin theories.

  1. Cohomology Methods in Causal Perturbation Theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grigore, D. R.

    2010-01-01

    Various problems in perturbation theory of (quantum) gauge models can be rephrased in the language of cohomology theory. This was already noticed in the functional formulation of perturbative gauge theories. Causal perturbation theory is a fully quantum approach: is works only with the chronological products which are defined as operator-valued distributions in the Fock space of the model. The use of causal perturbation theory leads to similar cohomology problems; the main difference with respect to the functional methods comes from the fact that the gauge transformation of the causal approach is, essentially, the linear part of the non-linear BRST transformation. Using these methods it is possible to give a nice determination of the interaction Lagrangians for gauge models (Yang-Mills and gravitation in the linear approximation); one obtains with this method the unicity of the interaction Lagrangian up to trivial terms. The case of quantum gravity is highly non-trivial and can be generalized with this method to the massive graviton case. Going to higher orders of perturbation theory one finds quantum anomalies. Again the cohomological methods can be used to determine the generic form of these anomalies. Finally, one can investigate the arbitrariness of the chronological products in higher orders and reduce this problem to cohomology methods also.

  2. Curvature constraints from the causal entropic principle

    SciTech Connect

    Bozek, Brandon; Albrecht, Andreas; Phillips, Daniel

    2009-07-15

    Current cosmological observations indicate a preference for a cosmological constant that is drastically smaller than what can be explained by conventional particle physics. The causal entropic principle (Bousso et al.) provides an alternative approach to anthropic attempts to predict our observed value of the cosmological constant by calculating the entropy created within a causal diamond. We have extended this work to use the causal entropic principle to predict the preferred curvature within the 'multiverse'. We have found that values larger than {rho}{sub k}=40{rho}{sub m} are disfavored by more than 99.99% peak value at {rho}{sub {lambda}}=7.9x10{sup -123} and {rho}{sub k}=4.3{rho}{sub m} for open universes. For universes that allow only positive curvature or both positive and negative curvature, we find a correlation between curvature and dark energy that leads to an extended region of preferred values. Our universe is found to be disfavored to an extent depending on the priors on curvature. We also provide a comparison to previous anthropic constraints on open universes and discuss future directions for this work.

  3. Causality, initial conditions, and inflationary magnetogenesis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tsagas, Christos G.

    2016-05-01

    The post-inflationary evolution of inflation-produced magnetic fields, conventional or not, can change dramatically when two fundamental issues are accounted for. The first is causality, which demands that local physical processes can never affect superhorizon perturbations. The second is the nature of the transition from inflation to reheating and then to the radiation era, which determine the initial conditions at the start of these epochs. Causality implies that inflationary magnetic fields do not freeze into the matter until they have re-entered the causal horizon. The nature of the cosmological transitions and the associated initial conditions, on the other hand, determine the large-scale magnetic evolution after inflation. Put together, the two can slow down the adiabatic magnetic decay on superhorizon scales throughout the Universe's post-inflationary evolution and thus lead to considerably stronger residual magnetic fields. This is "good news" for both the conventional and the nonconventional scenarios of cosmic magnetogenesis. Mechanisms operating outside standard electromagnetism, in particular, do not need to enhance their fields too much during inflation in order to produce seeds that can feed the galactic dynamo today. In fact, even conventionally produced inflationary magnetic fields might be able to sustain the dynamo.

  4. Reliability of the Granger causality inference

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, Douglas; Zhang, Yaoyu; Xiao, Yanyang; Cai, David

    2014-04-01

    How to characterize information flows in physical, biological, and social systems remains a major theoretical challenge. Granger causality (GC) analysis has been widely used to investigate information flow through causal interactions. We address one of the central questions in GC analysis, that is, the reliability of the GC evaluation and its implications for the causal structures extracted by this analysis. Our work reveals that the manner in which a continuous dynamical process is projected or coarse-grained to a discrete process has a profound impact on the reliability of the GC inference, and different sampling may potentially yield completely opposite inferences. This inference hazard is present for both linear and nonlinear processes. We emphasize that there is a hazard of reaching incorrect conclusions about network topologies, even including statistical (such as small-world or scale-free) properties of the networks, when GC analysis is blindly applied to infer the network topology. We demonstrate this using a small-world network for which a drastic loss of small-world attributes occurs in the reconstructed network using the standard GC approach. We further show how to resolve the paradox that the GC analysis seemingly becomes less reliable when more information is incorporated using finer and finer sampling. Finally, we present strategies to overcome these inference artifacts in order to obtain a reliable GC result.

  5. Cellular Senescence as the Causal Nexus of Aging

    PubMed Central

    Bhatia-Dey, Naina; Kanherkar, Riya R.; Stair, Susan E.; Makarev, Evgeny O.; Csoka, Antonei B.

    2016-01-01

    In this paper we present cellular senescence as the ultimate driver of the aging process, as a “causal nexus” that bridges microscopic subcellular damage with the phenotypic, macroscopic effect of aging. It is important to understand how the various types of subcellular damage correlated with the aging process lead to the larger, visible effects of anatomical aging. While it has always been assumed that subcellular damage (cause) results in macroscopic aging (effect), the bridging link between the two has been hard to define. Here, we propose that this bridge, which we term the “causal nexus”, is in fact cellular senescence. The subcellular damage itself does not directly cause the visible signs of aging, but rather, as the damage accumulates and reaches a critical mass, cells cease to proliferate and acquire the deleterious “senescence-associated secretory phenotype” (SASP) which then leads to the macroscopic consequences of tissue breakdown to create the physiologically aged phenotype. Thus senescence is a precondition for anatomical aging, and this explains why aging is a gradual process that remains largely invisible during most of its progression. The subcellular damage includes shortening of telomeres, damage to mitochondria, aneuploidy, and DNA double-strand breaks triggered by various genetic, epigenetic, and environmental factors. Damage pathways acting in isolation or in concert converge at the causal nexus of cellular senescence. In each species some types of damage can be more causative than in others and operate at a variable pace; for example, telomere erosion appears to be a primary cause in human cells, whereas activation of tumor suppressor genes is more causative in rodents. Such species-specific mechanisms indicate that despite different initial causes, most of aging is traced to a single convergent causal nexus: senescence. The exception is in some invertebrate species that escape senescence, and in non-dividing cells such as neurons

  6. Cellular Senescence as the Causal Nexus of Aging.

    PubMed

    Bhatia-Dey, Naina; Kanherkar, Riya R; Stair, Susan E; Makarev, Evgeny O; Csoka, Antonei B

    2016-01-01

    In this paper we present cellular senescence as the ultimate driver of the aging process, as a "causal nexus" that bridges microscopic subcellular damage with the phenotypic, macroscopic effect of aging. It is important to understand how the various types of subcellular damage correlated with the aging process lead to the larger, visible effects of anatomical aging. While it has always been assumed that subcellular damage (cause) results in macroscopic aging (effect), the bridging link between the two has been hard to define. Here, we propose that this bridge, which we term the "causal nexus", is in fact cellular senescence. The subcellular damage itself does not directly cause the visible signs of aging, but rather, as the damage accumulates and reaches a critical mass, cells cease to proliferate and acquire the deleterious "senescence-associated secretory phenotype" (SASP) which then leads to the macroscopic consequences of tissue breakdown to create the physiologically aged phenotype. Thus senescence is a precondition for anatomical aging, and this explains why aging is a gradual process that remains largely invisible during most of its progression. The subcellular damage includes shortening of telomeres, damage to mitochondria, aneuploidy, and DNA double-strand breaks triggered by various genetic, epigenetic, and environmental factors. Damage pathways acting in isolation or in concert converge at the causal nexus of cellular senescence. In each species some types of damage can be more causative than in others and operate at a variable pace; for example, telomere erosion appears to be a primary cause in human cells, whereas activation of tumor suppressor genes is more causative in rodents. Such species-specific mechanisms indicate that despite different initial causes, most of aging is traced to a single convergent causal nexus: senescence. The exception is in some invertebrate species that escape senescence, and in non-dividing cells such as neurons, where

  7. Traffic accidents involving fatigue driving and their extent of casualties.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Guangnan; Yau, Kelvin K W; Zhang, Xun; Li, Yanyan

    2016-02-01

    The rapid progress of motorization has increased the number of traffic-related casualties. Although fatigue driving is a major cause of traffic accidents, the public remains not rather aware of its potential harmfulness. Fatigue driving has been termed as a "silent killer." Thus, a thorough study of traffic accidents and the risk factors associated with fatigue-related casualties is of utmost importance. In this study, we analyze traffic accident data for the period 2006-2010 in Guangdong Province, China. The study data were extracted from the traffic accident database of China's Public Security Department. A logistic regression model is used to assess the effect of driver characteristics, type of vehicles, road conditions, and environmental factors on fatigue-related traffic accident occurrence and severity. On the one hand, male drivers, trucks, driving during midnight to dawn, and morning rush hours are identified as risk factors of fatigue-related crashes but do not necessarily result in severe casualties. Driving at night without street-lights contributes to fatigue-related crashes and severe casualties. On the other hand, while factors such as less experienced drivers, unsafe vehicle status, slippery roads, driving at night with street-lights, and weekends do not have significant effect on fatigue-related crashes, yet accidents associated with these factors are likely to have severe casualties. The empirical results of the present study have important policy implications on the reduction of fatigue-related crashes as well as their severity. PMID:26625173

  8. Evaluation of severe accident risks: Quantification of major input parameters: MAACS (MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System) input

    SciTech Connect

    Sprung, J.L.; Jow, H-N ); Rollstin, J.A. ); Helton, J.C. )

    1990-12-01

    Estimation of offsite accident consequences is the customary final step in a probabilistic assessment of the risks of severe nuclear reactor accidents. Recently, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission reassessed the risks of severe accidents at five US power reactors (NUREG-1150). Offsite accident consequences for NUREG-1150 source terms were estimated using the MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System (MACCS). Before these calculations were performed, most MACCS input parameters were reviewed, and for each parameter reviewed, a best-estimate value was recommended. This report presents the results of these reviews. Specifically, recommended values and the basis for their selection are presented for MACCS atmospheric and biospheric transport, emergency response, food pathway, and economic input parameters. Dose conversion factors and health effect parameters are not reviewed in this report. 134 refs., 15 figs., 110 tabs.

  9. University Students' Causal Conceptions about Social Mobility: Diverging Pathways for Believers in Personal Merit and Luck

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shane, Jacob; Heckhausen, Jutta

    2013-01-01

    Many college students hold ambitious goals for upward social mobility via post-college careers. However, in the current economic recession such optimistic expectations are not a given. The present study examines how college students' current social status and beliefs in causal factors for socioeconomic status (SES) attainment lead to diverging…

  10. Can Being Scared Cause Tummy Aches? Naive Theories, Ambiguous Evidence, and Preschoolers' Causal Inferences

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schulz, Laura E.; Bonawitz, Elizabeth Baraff; Griffiths, Thomas L.

    2007-01-01

    Causal learning requires integrating constraints provided by domain-specific theories with domain-general statistical learning. In order to investigate the interaction between these factors, the authors presented preschoolers with stories pitting their existing theories against statistical evidence. Each child heard 2 stories in which 2 candidate…

  11. Effects of Age, Gender, and Causality on Perceptions of Persons with Mental Retardation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Panek, Paul E.; Jungers, Melissa K.

    2008-01-01

    The present study examined the effects of age, gender, and causality on the perceptions of persons with mental retardation. Participants rated individuals with mental retardation using a semantic differential scale with three factors: activity, evaluation, and potency. Target individuals in each scenario varied on the variables of age (8, 20, 45),…

  12. Feedback Both Helps and Hinders Learning: The Causal Role of Prior Knowledge

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fyfe, Emily R.; Rittle-Johnson, Bethany

    2016-01-01

    Feedback can be a powerful learning tool, but its effects vary widely. Research has suggested that learners' prior knowledge may moderate the effects of feedback; however, no causal link has been established. In Experiment 1, we randomly assigned elementary school children (N = 108) to a condition based on a crossing of 2 factors: induced strategy…

  13. A Bayesian Theory of Sequential Causal Learning and Abstract Transfer.

    PubMed

    Lu, Hongjing; Rojas, Randall R; Beckers, Tom; Yuille, Alan L

    2016-03-01

    Two key research issues in the field of causal learning are how people acquire causal knowledge when observing data that are presented sequentially, and the level of abstraction at which learning takes place. Does sequential causal learning solely involve the acquisition of specific cause-effect links, or do learners also acquire knowledge about abstract causal constraints? Recent empirical studies have revealed that experience with one set of causal cues can dramatically alter subsequent learning and performance with entirely different cues, suggesting that learning involves abstract transfer, and such transfer effects involve sequential presentation of distinct sets of causal cues. It has been demonstrated that pre-training (or even post-training) can modulate classic causal learning phenomena such as forward and backward blocking. To account for these effects, we propose a Bayesian theory of sequential causal learning. The theory assumes that humans are able to consider and use several alternative causal generative models, each instantiating a different causal integration rule. Model selection is used to decide which integration rule to use in a given learning environment in order to infer causal knowledge from sequential data. Detailed computer simulations demonstrate that humans rely on the abstract characteristics of outcome variables (e.g., binary vs. continuous) to select a causal integration rule, which in turn alters causal learning in a variety of blocking and overshadowing paradigms. When the nature of the outcome variable is ambiguous, humans select the model that yields the best fit with the recent environment, and then apply it to subsequent learning tasks. Based on sequential patterns of cue-outcome co-occurrence, the theory can account for a range of phenomena in sequential causal learning, including various blocking effects, primacy effects in some experimental conditions, and apparently abstract transfer of causal knowledge. PMID:25902728

  14. 49 CFR 835.11 - Obtaining Board accident reports, factual accident reports, and supporting information.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 7 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Obtaining Board accident reports, factual accident... Board accident reports, factual accident reports, and supporting information. It is the responsibility... obtain Board accident reports, factual accident reports, and accompanying accident docket files....

  15. 49 CFR 835.11 - Obtaining Board accident reports, factual accident reports, and supporting information.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 7 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Obtaining Board accident reports, factual accident... Board accident reports, factual accident reports, and supporting information. It is the responsibility... obtain Board accident reports, factual accident reports, and accompanying accident docket files....

  16. Developing Causal Understanding with Causal Maps: The Impact of Total Links, Temporal Flow, and Lateral Position of Outcome Nodes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jeong, Allan; Lee, Woon Jee

    2012-01-01

    This study examined some of the methodological approaches used by students to construct causal maps in order to determine which approaches help students understand the underlying causes and causal mechanisms in a complex system. This study tested the relationship between causal understanding (ratio of root causes correctly/incorrectly identified,…

  17. Fatal aviation accidents in Lower Saxony from 1979 to 1996.

    PubMed

    Ast, F W; Kernbach-Wighton, G; Kampmann, H; Koops, E; Püschel, K; Tröger, H D; Kleemann, W J

    2001-06-01

    So far no national or regional studies have been published in Germany regarding the number of fatal aviation accidents and results of autopsy findings. Therefore, we evaluated all fatal aviation accidents occurring in Lower Saxony from 1979 to 1996. A total of 96 aviation accidents occurred in this period involving 73 aeroplanes. The crashes resulted in the death of 154 people ranging in age from 19 to 68 years. The greatest number of victims in a single crash of an aircraft was (n=7). Other types of fatal accidents were crashes of aircraft and helicopter while on the ground (n=5), hot-air balloons (n=2), parachutes (n=10), hang glider accidents (n=5) and the striking of a bystander by a model airplane. Autopsies were performed on 68 of the 154 victims (44.2%), including 39 of the 73 pilots (53.4%). Some of the autopsies yielded findings relevant to the cause of the accident: gunshot wounds, the presence of alcohol or drugs in blood and preexisting diseases. Our findings emphasize the need for autopsy on all aviation accident victims, especially pilots, as this is the only reliable method to uncover all factors contributing to an accident. PMID:11348795

  18. Accident Flying Squad

    PubMed Central

    Snook, Roger

    1972-01-01

    This paper describes the organization, evaluation, and costing of an independently financed and operated accident flying squad. 132 accidents involving 302 casualties were attended, six deaths were prevented, medical treatment contributed to the survival of a further four, and the condition or comfort of many other casualties was improved. The calls in which survival was influenced were evenly distributed throughout the three-and-a-half-year survey and seven of the 10 so aided were over 16 and under 30 years of age, all 10 being in the working age group. The time taken to provide the service was not excessive and the expense when compared with the overall saving was very small. The scheme was seen to be equally suitable for basing on hospital or general practice or both, and working as an integrated team with the ambulance service. The use of specialized transport was found to be unnecessary. Other benefits of the scheme included use of the experience of attending accidents to ensure relevant and realistic training for emergency service personnel, and an appreciation of the effect of ambulance design on the patient. ImagesFIG. 1FIG. 4 PMID:5069642

  19. The Relative Predictive Contribution and Causal Role of Phoneme Awareness, Rhyme Awareness, and Verbal Short-Term Memory in Reading Skills: A Review

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Melby-Lervag, Monica

    2012-01-01

    The acknowledgement that educational achievement is highly dependent on successful reading development has led to extensive research on its underlying factors. A strong argument has been made for a causal relationship between reading and phoneme awareness; similarly, causal relations have been suggested for reading with short-term memory and rhyme…

  20. How the expansion of the Universe determines the causal structure of McVittie spacetimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    da Silva, Alan M.; Fontanini, Michele; Guariento, Daniel C.

    2013-03-01

    We present a theorem which allows one to recognize and classify the asymptotic behavior and causal structure of McVittie metrics for different choices of scale factor, establishing whether a black hole or a pair black-white hole appears in the appropriate limit. Incidentally, the theorem also solves an apparent contradiction present in the literature over the causal structure analysis of the McVittie solution. Although the classification we present is not fully complete, we argue that this result covers most if not all physically relevant scenarios.