Sample records for accident consequence model

  1. Risk analysis of urban gas pipeline network based on improved bow-tie model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hao, M. J.; You, Q. J.; Yue, Z.

    2017-11-01

    Gas pipeline network is a major hazard source in urban areas. In the event of an accident, there could be grave consequences. In order to understand more clearly the causes and consequences of gas pipeline network accidents, and to develop prevention and mitigation measures, the author puts forward the application of improved bow-tie model to analyze risks of urban gas pipeline network. The improved bow-tie model analyzes accident causes from four aspects: human, materials, environment and management; it also analyzes the consequences from four aspects: casualty, property loss, environment and society. Then it quantifies the causes and consequences. Risk identification, risk analysis, risk assessment, risk control, and risk management will be clearly shown in the model figures. Then it can suggest prevention and mitigation measures accordingly to help reduce accident rate of gas pipeline network. The results show that the whole process of an accident can be visually investigated using the bow-tie model. It can also provide reasons for and predict consequences of an unfortunate event. It is of great significance in order to analyze leakage failure of gas pipeline network.

  2. SOARCA Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Long-Term Station Blackout Uncertainty Analysis: Knowledge Advancement.

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Gauntt, Randall O.; Mattie, Patrick D.; Bixler, Nathan E.

    2014-02-01

    This paper describes the knowledge advancements from the uncertainty analysis for the State-of- the-Art Reactor Consequence Analyses (SOARCA) unmitigated long-term station blackout accident scenario at the Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station. This work assessed key MELCOR and MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System, Version 2 (MACCS2) modeling uncertainties in an integrated fashion to quantify the relative importance of each uncertain input on potential accident progression, radiological releases, and off-site consequences. This quantitative uncertainty analysis provides measures of the effects on consequences, of each of the selected uncertain parameters both individually and in interaction with other parameters. The results measure the modelmore » response (e.g., variance in the output) to uncertainty in the selected input. Investigation into the important uncertain parameters in turn yields insights into important phenomena for accident progression and off-site consequences. This uncertainty analysis confirmed the known importance of some parameters, such as failure rate of the Safety Relief Valve in accident progression modeling and the dry deposition velocity in off-site consequence modeling. The analysis also revealed some new insights, such as dependent effect of cesium chemical form for different accident progressions. (auth)« less

  3. Scenario analysis of freight vehicle accident risks in Taiwan.

    PubMed

    Tsai, Ming-Chih; Su, Chien-Chih

    2004-07-01

    This study develops a quantitative risk model by utilizing Generalized Linear Interactive Model (GLIM) to analyze the major freight vehicle accidents in Taiwan. Eight scenarios are established by interacting three categorical variables of driver ages, vehicle types and road types, each of which contains two levels. The database that consists of 2043 major accidents occurring between 1994 and 1998 in Taiwan is utilized to fit and calibrate the model parameters. The empirical results indicate that accident rates of freight vehicles in Taiwan were high in the scenarios involving trucks and non-freeway systems, while; accident consequences were severe in the scenarios involving mature drivers or non-freeway systems. Empirical evidences also show that there is no significant relationship between accident rates and accident consequences. This is to stress that safety studies that describe risk merely as accident rates rather than the combination of accident rates and consequences by definition might lead to biased risk perceptions. Finally, the study recommends using number of vehicle as an alternative of traffic exposure in commercial vehicle risk analysis. The merits of this would be that it is simple and thus reliable; meanwhile, the resulted risk that is termed as fatalities per vehicle could provide clear and direct policy implications for insurance practices and safety regulations.

  4. Maritime Transportation Risk Assessment of Tianjin Port with Bayesian Belief Networks.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Jinfen; Teixeira, Ângelo P; Guedes Soares, C; Yan, Xinping; Liu, Kezhong

    2016-06-01

    This article develops a Bayesian belief network model for the prediction of accident consequences in the Tianjin port. The study starts with a statistical analysis of historical accident data of six years from 2008 to 2013. Then a Bayesian belief network is constructed to express the dependencies between the indicator variables and accident consequences. The statistics and expert knowledge are synthesized in the Bayesian belief network model to obtain the probability distribution of the consequences. By a sensitivity analysis, several indicator variables that have influence on the consequences are identified, including navigational area, ship type and time of the day. The results indicate that the consequences are most sensitive to the position where the accidents occurred, followed by time of day and ship length. The results also reflect that the navigational risk of the Tianjin port is at the acceptable level, despite that there is more room of improvement. These results can be used by the Maritime Safety Administration to take effective measures to enhance maritime safety in the Tianjin port. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

  5. Quantitative analysis of factors that affect oil pipeline network accident based on Bayesian networks: A case study in China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Chao; Qin, Ting Xin; Huang, Shuai; Wu, Jian Song; Meng, Xin Yan

    2018-06-01

    Some factors can affect the consequences of oil pipeline accident and their effects should be analyzed to improve emergency preparation and emergency response. Although there are some qualitative analysis models of risk factors' effects, the quantitative analysis model still should be researched. In this study, we introduce a Bayesian network (BN) model of risk factors' effects analysis in an oil pipeline accident case that happened in China. The incident evolution diagram is built to identify the risk factors. And the BN model is built based on the deployment rule for factor nodes in BN and the expert knowledge by Dempster-Shafer evidence theory. Then the probabilities of incident consequences and risk factors' effects can be calculated. The most likely consequences given by this model are consilient with the case. Meanwhile, the quantitative estimations of risk factors' effects may provide a theoretical basis to take optimal risk treatment measures for oil pipeline management, which can be used in emergency preparation and emergency response.

  6. Health effects model for nuclear power plant accident consequence analysis. Part I. Introduction, integration, and summary. Part II. Scientific basis for health effects models

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Evans, J.S.; Moeller, D.W.; Cooper, D.W.

    1985-07-01

    Analysis of the radiological health effects of nuclear power plant accidents requires models for predicting early health effects, cancers and benign thyroid nodules, and genetic effects. Since the publication of the Reactor Safety Study, additional information on radiological health effects has become available. This report summarizes the efforts of a program designed to provide revised health effects models for nuclear power plant accident consequence modeling. The new models for early effects address four causes of mortality and nine categories of morbidity. The models for early effects are based upon two parameter Weibull functions. They permit evaluation of the influence ofmore » dose protraction and address the issue of variation in radiosensitivity among the population. The piecewise-linear dose-response models used in the Reactor Safety Study to predict cancers and thyroid nodules have been replaced by linear and linear-quadratic models. The new models reflect the most recently reported results of the follow-up of the survivors of the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki and permit analysis of both morbidity and mortality. The new models for genetic effects allow prediction of genetic risks in each of the first five generations after an accident and include information on the relative severity of various classes of genetic effects. The uncertainty in modeloling radiological health risks is addressed by providing central, upper, and lower estimates of risks. An approach is outlined for summarizing the health consequences of nuclear power plant accidents. 298 refs., 9 figs., 49 tabs.« less

  7. Upon the reconstruction of accidents triggered by tire explosion. Analytical model and case study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gaiginschi, L.; Agape, I.; Talif, S.

    2017-10-01

    Accident Reconstruction is important in the general context of increasing road traffic safety. In the casuistry of traffic accidents, those caused by tire explosions are critical under the severity of consequences, because they are usually happening at high speeds. Consequently, the knowledge of the running speed of the vehicle involved at the time of the tire explosion is essential to elucidate the circumstances of the accident. The paper presents an analytical model for the kinematics of a vehicle which, after the explosion of one of its tires, begins to skid, overturns and rolls. The model consists of two concurent approaches built as applications of the momentum conservation and energy conservation principles, and allows determination of the initial speed of the vehicle involved, by running backwards the sequences of the road event. The authors also aimed to both validate the two distinct analytical approaches by calibrating the calculation algorithms on a case study

  8. Toxic release consequence analysis tool (TORCAT) for inherently safer design plant.

    PubMed

    Shariff, Azmi Mohd; Zaini, Dzulkarnain

    2010-10-15

    Many major accidents due to toxic release in the past have caused many fatalities such as the tragedy of MIC release in Bhopal, India (1984). One of the approaches is to use inherently safer design technique that utilizes inherent safety principle to eliminate or minimize accidents rather than to control the hazard. This technique is best implemented in preliminary design stage where the consequence of toxic release can be evaluated and necessary design improvements can be implemented to eliminate or minimize the accidents to as low as reasonably practicable (ALARP) without resorting to costly protective system. However, currently there is no commercial tool available that has such capability. This paper reports on the preliminary findings on the development of a prototype tool for consequence analysis and design improvement via inherent safety principle by utilizing an integrated process design simulator with toxic release consequence analysis model. The consequence analysis based on the worst-case scenarios during process flowsheeting stage were conducted as case studies. The preliminary finding shows that toxic release consequences analysis tool (TORCAT) has capability to eliminate or minimize the potential toxic release accidents by adopting the inherent safety principle early in preliminary design stage. 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. A few seconds to have an accident, a long time to recover: consequences for road accident victims from the ESPARR cohort 2 years after the accident.

    PubMed

    Tournier, Charlène; Charnay, Pierrette; Tardy, Hélène; Chossegros, Laetitia; Carnis, Laurent; Hours, Martine

    2014-11-01

    The aim of the present study was to describe the consequences of a road accident in adults, taking account of the type of road user, and to determine predictive factors for consequences at 2 years. Prospective follow-up study. The cohort was composed of 1168 victims of road traffic accidents, aged ≥16 years. Two years after the accident, 912 victims completed a self-administered questionnaire. Weighted logistic regression models were implemented to compare casualties still reporting impact related to the accident versus those reporting no residual impact. Five outcomes were analysed: unrecovered health status, impact on occupation or studies, on familial or affective life, on leisure or sport activities and but also the financial difficulties related to the accident. 46.1% of respondents were motorised four-wheel users, 29.6% motorised two-wheel (including quad) users, 13.3% pedestrians (including inline skate and push scooter users) and 11.1% cyclists. 53.3% reported unrecovered health status, 32.0% persisting impact on occupation or studies, 25.2% on familial or affective life, 46.9% on leisure or sport activities and 20.2% still had accident-related financial difficulties. Type of user, adjusted on age and gender, was linked to unrecovered health status and to impact on leisure or sport activities. When global severity (as measured by NISS) was integrated in the previous model, type of user was also associated with impact on occupation or studies. Type of user was further associated with impact on occupation or studies and on leisure or sport activities when global severity and the sociodemographic data obtained at inclusion were taken into account. It was not, however, related to any of the outcomes studied here, when the models focused on the injured body region. Finally, type of road user did not seem, on the various predictive models, to be related to financial difficulties due to the accident or to impact on familial or affective life. Overall, victims were affected by their accident even 2 years after it occurred. The severity of lesions induced by the accident was the main predictive factor. However, considering lesion as intermediary factors between the accident and the recovery status at 2 year post-accident, impact on health status was lower for cyclists than M4W users or M2W users. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  10. Learning lessons from Natech accidents - the eNATECH accident database

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krausmann, Elisabeth; Girgin, Serkan

    2016-04-01

    When natural hazards impact industrial facilities that house or process hazardous materials, fires, explosions and toxic releases can occur. This type of accident is commonly referred to as Natech accident. In order to prevent the recurrence of accidents or to better mitigate their consequences, lessons-learned type studies using available accident data are usually carried out. Through post-accident analysis, conclusions can be drawn on the most common damage and failure modes and hazmat release paths, particularly vulnerable storage and process equipment, and the hazardous materials most commonly involved in these types of accidents. These analyses also lend themselves to identifying technical and organisational risk-reduction measures that require improvement or are missing. Industrial accident databases are commonly used for retrieving sets of Natech accident case histories for further analysis. These databases contain accident data from the open literature, government authorities or in-company sources. The quality of reported information is not uniform and exhibits different levels of detail and accuracy. This is due to the difficulty of finding qualified information sources, especially in situations where accident reporting by the industry or by authorities is not compulsory, e.g. when spill quantities are below the reporting threshold. Data collection has then to rely on voluntary record keeping often by non-experts. The level of detail is particularly non-uniform for Natech accident data depending on whether the consequences of the Natech event were major or minor, and whether comprehensive information was available for reporting. In addition to the reporting bias towards high-consequence events, industrial accident databases frequently lack information on the severity of the triggering natural hazard, as well as on failure modes that led to the hazmat release. This makes it difficult to reconstruct the dynamics of the accident and renders the development of equipment vulnerability models linking the natural-hazard severity to the observed damage almost impossible. As a consequence, the European Commission has set up the eNATECH database for the systematic collection of Natech accident data and near misses. The database exhibits the more sophisticated accident representation required to capture the characteristics of Natech events and is publicly accessible at http://enatech.jrc.ec.europa.eu. This presentation outlines the general lessons-learning process, introduces the eNATECH database and its specific structure, and discusses natural-hazard specific lessons learned and features common to Natech accidents triggered by different natural hazards.

  11. Assessment of an explosive LPG release accident: a case study.

    PubMed

    Bubbico, Roberto; Marchini, Mauro

    2008-07-15

    In the present paper, an accident occurred during a liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) tank filling activity has been taken into consideration. During the transfer of LPG from the source road tank car to the receiving fixed storage vessel, an accidental release of LPG gave rise to different final consequences ranging from a pool fire, to a fireball and to the catastrophic rupture of the tank with successive explosion of its contents. The sequence of events has been investigated by using some of the consequence calculation models most commonly adopted in risk analysis and accident investigation. On one hand, this allows to better understand the link between the various events of the accident. On the other hand, a comparison between the results of the calculations and the damages actually observed after the accident, allows to check the accuracy of the prediction models and to critically assess their validity. In particular, it was shown that the largest uncertainty is associated with the calculation of the energy involved in the physical expansion of the fluid (both liquid and vapor) after the catastrophic rupture of the tank.

  12. Why System Safety Professionals Should Read Accident Reports

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Holloway, C. M.; Johnson, C. W.

    2006-01-01

    System safety professionals, both researchers and practitioners, who regularly read accident reports reap important benefits. These benefits include an improved ability to separate myths from reality, including both myths about specific accidents and ones concerning accidents in general; an increased understanding of the consequences of unlikely events, which can help inform future designs; a greater recognition of the limits of mathematical models; and guidance on potentially relevant research directions that may contribute to safety improvements in future systems.

  13. Analysis on Dangerous Source of Large Safety Accident in Storage Tank Area

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Tong; Li, Ying; Xie, Tiansheng; Liu, Yu; Zhu, Xueyuan

    2018-01-01

    The difference between a large safety accident and a general accident is that the consequences of a large safety accident are particularly serious. To study the tank area which factors directly or indirectly lead to the occurrence of large-sized safety accidents. According to the three kinds of hazard source theory and the consequence cause analysis of the super safety accident, this paper analyzes the dangerous source of the super safety accident in the tank area from four aspects, such as energy source, large-sized safety accident reason, management missing, environmental impact Based on the analysis of three kinds of hazard sources and environmental analysis to derive the main risk factors and the AHP evaluation model is established, and after rigorous and scientific calculation, the weights of the related factors in four kinds of risk factors and each type of risk factors are obtained. The result of analytic hierarchy process shows that management reasons is the most important one, and then the environmental factors and the direct cause and Energy source. It should be noted that although the direct cause is relatively low overall importance, the direct cause of Failure of emergency measures and Failure of prevention and control facilities in greater weight.

  14. Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Late health effects uncertain assessment. Volume 2: Appendices

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Little, M.P.; Muirhead, C.R.; Goossens, L.H.J.

    1997-12-01

    The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library ofmore » uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA late health effects models. This volume contains appendices that include (1) a summary of the MACCS and COSYMA consequence codes, (2) the elicitation questionnaires and case structures, (3) the rationales and results for the expert panel on late health effects, (4) short biographies of the experts, and (5) the aggregated results of their responses.« less

  15. Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Uncertainty assessment for internal dosimetry. Volume 2: Appendices

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P.; Cooke, R.M.

    1998-04-01

    The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library ofmore » uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA internal dosimetry models. This volume contains appendices that include (1) a summary of the MACCS and COSYMA consequence codes, (2) the elicitation questionnaires and case structures, (3) the rationales and results for the panel on internal dosimetry, (4) short biographies of the experts, and (5) the aggregated results of their responses.« less

  16. Analysis of multiple tank car releases in train accidents.

    PubMed

    Liu, Xiang; Liu, Chang; Hong, Yili

    2017-10-01

    There are annually over two million carloads of hazardous materials transported by rail in the United States. The American railroads use large blocks of tank cars to transport petroleum crude oil and other flammable liquids from production to consumption sites. Being different from roadway transport of hazardous materials, a train accident can potentially result in the derailment and release of multiple tank cars, which may result in significant consequences. The prior literature predominantly assumes that the occurrence of multiple tank car releases in a train accident is a series of independent Bernoulli processes, and thus uses the binomial distribution to estimate the total number of tank car releases given the number of tank cars derailing or damaged. This paper shows that the traditional binomial model can incorrectly estimate multiple tank car release probability by magnitudes in certain circumstances, thereby significantly affecting railroad safety and risk analysis. To bridge this knowledge gap, this paper proposes a novel, alternative Correlated Binomial (CB) model that accounts for the possible correlations of multiple tank car releases in the same train. We test three distinct correlation structures in the CB model, and find that they all outperform the conventional binomial model based on empirical tank car accident data. The analysis shows that considering tank car release correlations would result in a significantly improved fit of the empirical data than otherwise. Consequently, it is prudent to consider alternative modeling techniques when analyzing the probability of multiple tank car releases in railroad accidents. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. A discussion on the methodology for calculating radiological and toxicological consequences for the spent nuclear fuel project at the Hanford Site

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    RITTMANN, P.D.

    1999-07-14

    This report contains technical information used to determine accident consequences for the Spent Nuclear Fuel Project safety documents. It does not determine accident consequences or describe specific accident scenarios, but instead provides generic information.

  18. Evaluation of severe accident risks: Quantification of major input parameters: MAACS (MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System) input

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Sprung, J.L.; Jow, H-N; Rollstin, J.A.

    1990-12-01

    Estimation of offsite accident consequences is the customary final step in a probabilistic assessment of the risks of severe nuclear reactor accidents. Recently, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission reassessed the risks of severe accidents at five US power reactors (NUREG-1150). Offsite accident consequences for NUREG-1150 source terms were estimated using the MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System (MACCS). Before these calculations were performed, most MACCS input parameters were reviewed, and for each parameter reviewed, a best-estimate value was recommended. This report presents the results of these reviews. Specifically, recommended values and the basis for their selection are presented for MACCS atmospheric andmore » biospheric transport, emergency response, food pathway, and economic input parameters. Dose conversion factors and health effect parameters are not reviewed in this report. 134 refs., 15 figs., 110 tabs.« less

  19. Methods for nuclear air-cleaning-system accident-consequence assessment

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Andrae, R.W.; Bolstad, J.W.; Gregory, W.S.

    1982-01-01

    This paper describes a multilaboratory research program that is directed toward addressing many questions that analysts face when performing air cleaning accident consequence assessments. The program involves developing analytical tools and supportive experimental data that will be useful in making more realistic assessments of accident source terms within and up to the atmospheric boundaries of nuclear fuel cycle facilities. The types of accidents considered in this study includes fires, explosions, spills, tornadoes, criticalities, and equipment failures. The main focus of the program is developing an accident analysis handbook (AAH). We will describe the contents of the AAH, which include descriptionsmore » of selected nuclear fuel cycle facilities, process unit operations, source-term development, and accident consequence analyses. Three computer codes designed to predict gas and material propagation through facility air cleaning systems are described. These computer codes address accidents involving fires (FIRAC), explosions (EXPAC), and tornadoes (TORAC). The handbook relies on many illustrative examples to show the analyst how to approach accident consequence assessments. We will use the FIRAC code and a hypothetical fire scenario to illustrate the accident analysis capability.« less

  20. Modeling secondary accidents identified by traffic shock waves.

    PubMed

    Junhua, Wang; Boya, Liu; Lanfang, Zhang; Ragland, David R

    2016-02-01

    The high potential for occurrence and the negative consequences of secondary accidents make them an issue of great concern affecting freeway safety. Using accident records from a three-year period together with California interstate freeway loop data, a dynamic method for more accurate classification based on the traffic shock wave detecting method was used to identify secondary accidents. Spatio-temporal gaps between the primary and secondary accident were proven be fit via a mixture of Weibull and normal distribution. A logistic regression model was developed to investigate major factors contributing to secondary accident occurrence. Traffic shock wave speed and volume at the occurrence of a primary accident were explicitly considered in the model, as a secondary accident is defined as an accident that occurs within the spatio-temporal impact scope of the primary accident. Results show that the shock waves originating in the wake of a primary accident have a more significant impact on the likelihood of a secondary accident occurrence than the effects of traffic volume. Primary accidents with long durations can significantly increase the possibility of secondary accidents. Unsafe speed and weather are other factors contributing to secondary crash occurrence. It is strongly suggested that when police or rescue personnel arrive at the scene of an accident, they should not suddenly block, decrease, or unblock the traffic flow, but instead endeavor to control traffic in a smooth and controlled manner. Also it is important to reduce accident processing time to reduce the risk of secondary accident. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Uncertainty assessment for deposited material and external doses. Volume 2: Appendices

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P.; Cooke, R.M.

    1997-12-01

    The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library ofmore » uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA deposited material and external dose models. This volume contains appendices that include (1) a summary of the MACCS and COSYMA consequence codes, (2) the elicitation questionnaires and case structures, (3) the rationales and results for the panel on deposited material and external doses, (4) short biographies of the experts, and (5) the aggregated results of their responses.« less

  2. DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Clayton, Daniel James; Lipinski, Ronald J.; Bechtel, Ryan D.

    As compact and light weight power sources with reliable, long lives, Radioisotope Power Systems (RPSs) have made space missions to explore the solar system possible. Due to the hazardous material that can be released during a launch accident, the potential health risk of an accident must be quantified, so that appropriate launch approval decisions can be made. One part of the risk estimation involves modeling the response of the RPS to potential accident environments. Due to the complexity of modeling the full RPS response deterministically on dynamic variables, the evaluation is performed in a stochastic manner with a Monte Carlomore » simulation. The potential consequences can be determined by modeling the transport of the hazardous material in the environment and in human biological pathways. The consequence analysis results are summed and weighted by appropriate likelihood values to give a collection of probabilistic results for the estimation of the potential health risk. This information is used to guide RPS designs, spacecraft designs, mission architecture, or launch procedures to potentially reduce the risk, as well as to inform decision makers of the potential health risks resulting from the use of RPSs for space missions.« less

  3. 78 FR 6145 - Virgil C. Summer Nuclear Station, Units 2 and 3; Application and Amendment to Facility Combined...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-01-29

    ... increase in the probability or consequences of an accident previously evaluated; or (2) create the possibility of a new or different kind of accident from any accident previously evaluated; or (3) involve a... proposed amendment involve a significant increase in the probability or consequences of an accident...

  4. Short-Term Medical Consequences of the Chernobyl Nuclear Accident: Lessons for the Future

    PubMed Central

    Gale, Robert Peter

    1988-01-01

    The author of this article discusses the world's most serious nuclear accident to date: the Chernobyl nuclear accident of April 1986. His major focus is on the short-term medical consequences of the accident, including reduction of exposure to persons at risk, evaluation of persons potentially affected, dosimetry, and specific medical interventions. PMID:21253129

  5. The Viareggio LPG railway accident: event reconstruction and modeling.

    PubMed

    Brambilla, Sara; Manca, Davide

    2010-10-15

    This manuscript describes in detail the LPG accident occurred in Viareggio on June 2009 and its modeling. The accident investigation highlighted the uncertainty and complexity of assessing and modeling what happened in the congested environment close to the Viareggio railway station. Nonetheless, the analysis allowed comprehending the sequence of events, the way they influenced each other, and the different possible paths/evolutions. The paper describes suitable models for the quantitative assessment of the consequences of the most probable accidental dynamics and its outcomes. The main finding is that after about 80 s from the beginning of the release the dense-gas cloud reached the surrounding houses that were destroyed successively by internal explosions. This fact has two main implications. First, it shows that the adopted modeling framework can give a correct picture of what happened in Viareggio. Second, it confirms the need to develop effective mitigation measures because, in case of this kind of accidents, there is no time to apply any protective emergency plans/actions. 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. A Model for Risk Analysis of Oil Tankers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Montewka, Jakub; Krata, Przemysław; Goerland, Floris; Kujala, Pentti

    2010-01-01

    The paper presents a model for risk analysis regarding marine traffic, with the emphasis on two types of the most common marine accidents which are: collision and grounding. The focus is on oil tankers as these pose the highest environmental risk. A case study in selected areas of Gulf of Finland in ice free conditions is presented. The model utilizes a well-founded formula for risk calculation, which combines the probability of an unwanted event with its consequences. Thus the model is regarded a block type model, consisting of blocks for the probability of collision and grounding estimation respectively as well as blocks for consequences of an accident modelling. Probability of vessel colliding is assessed by means of a Minimum Distance To Collision (MDTC) based model. The model defines in a novel way the collision zone, using mathematical ship motion model and recognizes traffic flow as a non homogeneous process. The presented calculations address waterways crossing between Helsinki and Tallinn, where dense cross traffic during certain hours is observed. For assessment of a grounding probability, a new approach is proposed, which utilizes a newly developed model, where spatial interactions between objects in different locations are recognized. A ship at a seaway and navigational obstructions may be perceived as interacting objects and their repulsion may be modelled by a sort of deterministic formulation. Risk due to tankers running aground addresses an approach fairway to an oil terminal in Sköldvik, near Helsinki. The consequences of an accident are expressed in monetary terms, and concern costs of an oil spill, based on statistics of compensations claimed from the International Oil Pollution Compensation Funds (IOPC Funds) by parties involved.

  7. Consequences of severe nuclear accidents in Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seibert, Petra; Arnold, Delia; Mraz, Gabriele; Arnold, Nikolaus; Gufler, Klaus; Kromp-Kolb, Helga; Kromp, Wolfgang; Sutter, Philipp

    2013-04-01

    A first part of the presentation is devoted to the consequences of the severe accident in the 1986 Chernobyl NPP. It lead to a substantial radioactive contaminated of large parts of Europe and thus raised the awareness for off-site nuclear accident consequences. Spatial patterns of the (transient) contamination of the air and (persistent) contamination of the ground were studied by both measurements and model simulations. For a variety of reasons, ground contamination measurements have variability at a range of spatial scales. Results will be reviewed and discussed. Model simulations, including inverse modelling, have shown that the standard source term as defined in the ATMES study (1990) needs to be updated. Sensitive measurements of airborne activities still reveal the presence of low levels of airborne radiocaesium over the northern hemisphere which stems from resuspension. Over time scales of months and years, the distribution of radionuclides in the Earth system is constantly changing, for example relocated within plants, between plants and soil, in the soil, and into water bodies. Motivated by the permanent risk of transboundary impacts from potential major nuclear accidents, the multidisciplinary project flexRISK (see http://flexRISK.boku.ac.at) has been carried out from 2009 to 2012 in Austria to quantify such risks and hazards. An overview of methods and results of flexRISK is given as a second part of the presentation. For each of the 228 NPPs, severe accidents were identified together with relevant inventories, release fractions, and release frequencies. Then, Europe-wide dispersion and dose calculations were performed for 2788 cases, using the Lagrangian particle model FLEXPART. Maps of single-case results as well as various aggregated risk parameters were produced. It was found that substantial consequences (intervention measures) are possible for distances up to 500-1000 km, and occur more frequently for a distance range up to 100-300 km, which is in agreement with Chernobyl experiences. However, emergency planning presently is still often focussing on too small areas. In reality, almost all of Europe should be prepared for nuclear disaster. The project investigated also the effect of a simple phase-out scenario. A regional phase-out policy is effective for reducing or even eliminating high damage in the respective regions. It should also be mentioned that risk distribution depends strongly on accident frequency, but this parameter is highly uncertain. The work in flexRISK was funded by the Austrian Climate and Energy Fund (KLI.EN).

  8. Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis: Dispersion and deposition uncertainty assessment, appendices A and B

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Harper, F.T.; Young, M.L.; Miller, L.A.

    The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, completed in 1990, estimate the risks presented by nuclear installations based on postulated frequencies and magnitudes of potential accidents. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the Commission of the European Communities (CEC) began a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The objective was to develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the input variables of the codes. Expert elicitation, developed independently, was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for the selected consequence parameters. The study was formulatedmore » jointly and was limited to the current code models and to physical quantities that could be measured in experiments. To validate the distributions generated for the wet deposition input variables, samples were taken from these distributions and propagated through the wet deposition code model along with the Gaussian plume model (GPM) implemented in the MACCS and COSYMA codes. Resulting distributions closely replicated the aggregated elicited wet deposition distributions. Project teams from the NRC and CEC cooperated successfully to develop and implement a unified process for the elaboration of uncertainty distributions on consequence code input parameters. Formal expert judgment elicitation proved valuable for synthesizing the best available information. Distributions on measurable atmospheric dispersion and deposition parameters were successfully elicited from experts involved in the many phenomenological areas of consequence analysis. This volume is the second of a three-volume document describing the project and contains two appendices describing the rationales for the dispersion and deposition data along with short biographies of the 16 experts who participated in the project.« less

  9. Effect of the Road Environment on Road Safety in Poland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Budzynski, Marcin; Jamroz, Kazimierz; Antoniuk, Marcin

    2017-10-01

    Run-off-road accidents tend to be very severe because when a vehicle leaves the road, it will often crash into a solid obstacle (tree, pole, supports, front wall of a culvert, barrier). A statistical analysis of the data shows that Poland’s main roadside hazard is trees and the severity of vehicles striking a tree in a run-off-road crash. The risks are particularly high in north-west Poland with many of the roads lined up with trees. Because of the existing rural road cross-sections, i.e. having trees directly on road edge followed immediately by drainage ditches, vulnerable road users are prevented from using shoulders and made to use the roadway. With no legal definition of the road safety zone in Polish regulations, attempts to remove roadside trees lead to major conflicts with environmental stakeholders. This is why a compromise should be sought between the safety of road users and protection of the natural environment and the aesthetics of the road experience. Rather than just cut the trees, other road safety measures should be used where possible to treat the hazardous spots by securing trees and obstacles and through speed management. Accidents that are directly related to the road environment fall into the following categories: hitting a tree, hitting a barrier, hitting a utility pole or sign, vehicle rollover on the shoulder, vehicle rollover on slopes or in ditch. The main consequence of a roadside hazard is not the likelihood of an accident itself but of its severity. Poland’s roadside accident severity is primarily the result of poor design or operation of road infrastructure. This comes as a consequence of a lack of regulations or poorly defined regulations and failure to comply with road safety standards. The new analytical model was designed as a combination of the different factors and one that will serve as a comprehensive model. It was assumed that it will describe the effect of the roadside on the number of accidents and their consequences. The design of the model was based on recommendations from analysing other models. The assumptions were the following: the model will be used to calculate risk factors and accident severity, the indicators will depend on number of vehicle kilometres travelled or traffic volumes, analyses will be based on accident data: striking a tree, hitting a barrier, hitting a utility pole or sign. Additional data will include roadside information and casualty density measures will be used - killed and injured.

  10. Identifying the Safety Factors over Traffic Signs in State Roads using a Panel Quantile Regression Approach.

    PubMed

    Šarić, Željko; Xu, Xuecai; Duan, Li; Babić, Darko

    2018-06-20

    This study intended to investigate the interactions between accident rate and traffic signs in state roads located in Croatia, and accommodate the heterogeneity attributed to unobserved factors. The data from 130 state roads between 2012 and 2016 were collected from Traffic Accident Database System maintained by the Republic of Croatia Ministry of the Interior. To address the heterogeneity, a panel quantile regression model was proposed, in which quantile regression model offers a more complete view and a highly comprehensive analysis of the relationship between accident rate and traffic signs, while the panel data model accommodates the heterogeneity attributed to unobserved factors. Results revealed that (1) low visibility of material damage (MD) and death or injured (DI) increased the accident rate; (2) the number of mandatory signs and the number of warning signs were more likely to reduce the accident rate; (3)average speed limit and the number of invalid traffic signs per km exhibited a high accident rate. To our knowledge, it's the first attempt to analyze the interactions between accident consequences and traffic signs by employing a panel quantile regression model; by involving the visibility, the present study demonstrates that the low visibility causes a relatively higher risk of MD and DI; It is noteworthy that average speed limit corresponds with accident rate positively; The number of mandatory signs and the number of warning signs are more likely to reduce the accident rate; The number of invalid traffic signs per km are significant for accident rate, thus regular maintenance should be kept for a safer roadway environment.

  11. [The Fukushima nuclear accident: consequences for Japan and for us].

    PubMed

    Grosche, B

    2013-04-01

    The Fukushima accident was the consequence of a preceding 2-fold natural catastrophe: the earth quake of 11 March 2011 and the subsequent tsunami. Due to favourable winds and to evacuation measures the radiation exposure to the general population in Japan as a whole and with some exceptions in the region outside the evacuation zone, too, was low. In this article the attempt is made to give an estimate of health consequences to the public. This is based upon WHO's dose estimates, knowledge of the consequences of the Chernobyl accident, of the atmospheric nuclear bomb testing in Kazakhstan and on the risk of childhood leukaemia after low dose radiation exposure. For Germany, there was no radiation threat due to the accident. Nonetheless, the events in Japan made clear that the rules and standards that were developed for the case of a reactor accident need to be revised. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

  12. 10 CFR 50.92 - Issuance of amendment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... consequences (such as one that permits a significant increase in the amount of effluents or radiation emitted... significant increase in the probability or consequences of an accident previously evaluated; or (2) Create the possibility of a new or different kind of accident from any accident previously evaluated; or (3) Involve a...

  13. 10 CFR 50.92 - Issuance of amendment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... consequences (such as one that permits a significant increase in the amount of effluents or radiation emitted... significant increase in the probability or consequences of an accident previously evaluated; or (2) Create the possibility of a new or different kind of accident from any accident previously evaluated; or (3) Involve a...

  14. 10 CFR 50.92 - Issuance of amendment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... consequences (such as one that permits a significant increase in the amount of effluents or radiation emitted... significant increase in the probability or consequences of an accident previously evaluated; or (2) Create the possibility of a new or different kind of accident from any accident previously evaluated; or (3) Involve a...

  15. 10 CFR 50.92 - Issuance of amendment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... consequences (such as one that permits a significant increase in the amount of effluents or radiation emitted... significant increase in the probability or consequences of an accident previously evaluated; or (2) Create the possibility of a new or different kind of accident from any accident previously evaluated; or (3) Involve a...

  16. 10 CFR 50.92 - Issuance of amendment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... consequences (such as one that permits a significant increase in the amount of effluents or radiation emitted... significant increase in the probability or consequences of an accident previously evaluated; or (2) Create the possibility of a new or different kind of accident from any accident previously evaluated; or (3) Involve a...

  17. Multi-phase model development to assess RCIC system capabilities under severe accident conditions

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Kirkland, Karen Vierow; Ross, Kyle; Beeny, Bradley

    The Reactor Core Isolation Cooling (RCIC) System is a safety-related system that provides makeup water for core cooling of some Boiling Water Reactors (BWRs) with a Mark I containment. The RCIC System consists of a steam-driven Terry turbine that powers a centrifugal, multi-stage pump for providing water to the reactor pressure vessel. The Fukushima Dai-ichi accidents demonstrated that the RCIC System can play an important role under accident conditions in removing core decay heat. The unexpectedly sustained, good performance of the RCIC System in the Fukushima reactor demonstrates, firstly, that its capabilities are not well understood, and secondly, that themore » system has high potential for extended core cooling in accident scenarios. Better understanding and analysis tools would allow for more options to cope with a severe accident situation and to reduce the consequences. The objectives of this project were to develop physics-based models of the RCIC System, incorporate them into a multi-phase code and validate the models. This Final Technical Report details the progress throughout the project duration and the accomplishments.« less

  18. Driver fatigue and road safety on Poland's national roads.

    PubMed

    Jamroz, Kazimierz; Smolarek, Leszek

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents an overview of factors causing driver fatigue as described in the literature. Next, a traffic crash database for 2003-2007 is used to identify the causes, circumstances and consequences of accidents caused by driver fatigue on Poland's national roads. The results of the study were used to build a model showing the relationship between the concentration of road accidents and casualties, and the time of day. Finally, the level of relative accident risk at night-time versus daytime is defined. A map shows the risk of death and severe injury on the network of Poland's national roads. The paper suggests to road authorities steps to reduce fatigue-related road accidents in Poland.

  19. The Fukushima radiation accident: consequences for radiation accident medical management.

    PubMed

    Meineke, Viktor; Dörr, Harald

    2012-08-01

    The March 2011 radiation accident in Fukushima, Japan, is a textbook example of a radiation accident of global significance. In view of the global dimensions of the accident, it is important to consider the lessons learned. In this context, emphasis must be placed on consequences for planning appropriate medical management for radiation accidents including, for example, estimates of necessary human and material resources. The specific characteristics of the radiation accident in Fukushima are thematically divided into five groups: the exceptional environmental influences on the Fukushima radiation accident, particular circumstances of the accident, differences in risk perception, changed psychosocial factors in the age of the Internet and globalization, and the ignorance of the effects of ionizing radiation both among the general public and health care professionals. Conclusions like the need for reviewing international communication, interfacing, and interface definitions will be drawn from the Fukushima radiation accident.

  20. Predicting Consequences of Technological Disasters from Natural Hazard Events: Challenges and Opportunities Associated with Industrial Accident Data Sources

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wood, M.

    2009-04-01

    The increased focus on the possibility of technological accidents caused by natural events (Natech) is foreseen to continue for years to come. In this case, experts in prevention, mitigation and preparation activities associated with natural events will increasingly need to borrow data and expertise traditionally associated with the technological fields to carry out the work. An important question is how useful is the data for understanding consequences from such natech events. Data and case studies provided on major industrial accidents tend to focus on lessons learned for re-engineering the process. While consequence data are reported at least nominally in most reports, their precision, quality and completeness is often lacking. Consequences that are often or sometimes available but not provided can include severity and type of injuries, distance of victims from the source, exposure measurements, volume of the release, population in potentially affected zones, and weather conditions. Yet these are precisely the type of data that will aid natural hazard experts in land-use planning and emergency response activities when a Natech event may be foreseen. This work discusses the results of a study of consequence data from accidents involving toxic releases reported in the EU's MARS accident database. The study analysed the precision, quality and completeness of three categories of consequence data reported: the description of health effects, consequence assessment and chemical risk assessment factors, and emergency response information. This work reports on the findings from this study and discusses how natural hazards experts might interact with industrial accident experts to promote more consistent and accurate reporting of the data that will be useful in consequence-based activities.

  1. Re-assessment of road accident data-analysis policy : applying theory from involuntary, high-consequence, low-probability events like nuclear power plant meltdowns to voluntary, low-consequence, high-probability events like traffic accidents

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2002-02-01

    This report examines the literature on involuntary, high-consequence, low-probability (IHL) events like nuclear power plant meltdowns to determine what can be applied to the problem of voluntary, low-consequence high-probability (VLH) events like tra...

  2. Use of questionnaires and an expert panel to judge the environmental consequences of chemical spills for the development of an environment-accident index.

    PubMed

    Andersson, Asa Scott; Stjernström, Olof; Fängmark, Ingrid

    2005-05-01

    Assessing the environmental consequences of a chemical accident is a complex task. To date, the methods used to evaluate the environmental effects of an acute release of a chemical have often been based on measurements of chemical and physical variables deemed to be important, such as the concentration of the chemical. However, a broader strategy is needed to predict the environmental consequences of potential accidents during the planning process. An Environment-Accident Index (EAI), a simple tool based on such a strategy, has been developed to facilitate the consideration of a multitude of influential variables. The objectives of this study were to evaluate whether questionnaire-based expert panel's judgements could provide useful data on the environmental consequences of chemical spills, and an effective basis for further development of the EAI. As expected, the judgements did not agree perfectly, but they do give rough indications of the environmental effects, and highlight consistent trends that should be useful inputs for planning, prevention and decontamination processes. The different accidents were also judged to have caused everything from minor to very major effects in the environment, implying that a wide range of accident scenarios were represented in the material and covered by the EAI. Therefore, questionnaires and expert panel judgements can be used to collect useful data for estimating the likely environmental consequences of chemical accidents and for further development of the EAI.

  3. The analysis outlining the occurrence and consequences of accidents in the work environment of the firefighters employed by the State Fire Service in Poland in 2008-2013.

    PubMed

    Pawlak, Agata; Gotlib, Joanna; Gałązkowski, Robert

    2016-01-01

    Due to the specifics of their work and to being exposed to a wide range of hazards, firefighters working for the State Fire Service (SFS) face the risk of work-related accidents more often than members of other occupational groups. The aim of this paper is to analyze the occurrence and consequences of accidents in the work environment of the SFS officers in Poland between the years 2008-2013. The material analyzed is based on aggregate data collected by the Headquarters of the State Fire Service. Figures regarding accidents in the period between 1 January 2008 and 31 December 2013 show that 8518 work-related accidents occurred in that period and 8635 people were injured. The data shows that neither the number of accidents nor their frequency indicator underwent any significant fluctuations over the 6 years under consideration. The group that is most exposed to accidents on duty in the profession includes active firefighters serving in rescue and fire extinguishment divisions. According to the data, the greatest number of trauma incidents in the SFS between the years 2008-2013 occurred during sporting activities. The predominant cause of these was inappropriate behavior or the lack of proper care. The most frequent injuries sustained during the accidents were broken or fractured bones and sprained joints. Accidents on duty occur significantly more often when firefighters are at their stations, during sporting classes, exercises or maneuvers, than in the course of actual rescue operations. The firefighters of the State Fire Services are insufficiently prepared for their sporting activities. This work is available in Open Access model and licensed under a CC BY-NC 3.0 PL license.

  4. Quality evaluation of official accident reports conducted by Labour Authorities in Andalusia (Spain).

    PubMed

    Salguero-Caparros, Francisco; Suarez-Cebador, Manuel; Carrillo-Castrillo, Jesús A; Rubio-Romero, Juan Carlos

    2018-01-01

    A public accident investigation is carried out when the consequences of the incident are significant or the accident has occurred in unusual circumstances. We evaluated the quality of the official accident investigations being conducted by Safety Specialists of the Labour Authorities in Andalusia. To achieve this objective, we analysed 98 occupational accident investigations conducted by the Labour Authorities in Andalusia in the last quarter of 2014. Various phases in the accident investigation process were examined, such as the use of the Eurostat variables within European Statistics on Accidents at Work (ESAW), detection of causes, determination of preventive measures, cost analysis of the accidents, identification of noncompliance with legal requirements or the investigation method used. The results of this study show that 77% of the official occupational accident investigation reports analysed were conducted in accordance with all the quality criteria recommended in the literature. To enhance glogal learning, and optimize allocation of resources, we propose the development of a harmonized European model for the public investigation of occupational accidents. Further it would be advisable to create a common classification and coding system for the causes of accidents for all European Union Member States.

  5. Final safety analysis report for the Galileo mission: Volume 3 (Book 2), Nuclear risk analysis document: Appendices: Revision 1

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Not Available

    1989-01-25

    It is the purpose of the NRAD to provide an analysis of the range of potential consequences of accidents which have been identified that are associated with the launching and deployment of the Galileo mission spacecraft. The specific consequences analyzed are those associated with the possible release of radioactive material (fuel) of the Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generators (RTGs). They are in terms of radiation doses to people and areas of deposition of radioactive material. These consequence analyses can be used in several ways. One way is to identify the potential range of consequences which might have to be dealt with ifmore » there were to be an accident with a release of fuel, so as to assure that, given such an accident, the health and safety of the public will be reasonably protected. Another use of the information, in conjunction with accident and release probabilities, is to estimate the risks associated with the mission. That is, most space launches occur without incident. Given an accident, the most probable result relative to the RTGs is complete containment of the radioactive material. Only a small fraction of accidents might result in a release of fuel and subsequent radiological consequences. The combination of probability with consequence is risk, which can be compared to other human and societal risks to assure that no undue risks are implied by undertaking the mission. Book 2 contains eight appendices.« less

  6. Safety analysis report for the Galileo Mission. Volume 3, book 2: Nuclear risk analysis document. Appendices, revision 1

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    1989-01-01

    It is the purpose of the NRAD to provide an analysis of the range of potential consequences of accidents which have been identified that are associated with the launching and deployment of the Galileo mission spacecraft. The specific consequences analyzed are those associated with the possible release of radioactive material (fuel) of the Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generators (RTGs). They are in terms of radiation doses to people and areas of deposition of radioactive material. These consequence analyses can be used in several ways. One way is to identify the potential range of consequences which might have to be dealt with if there were to be an accident with a release of fuel, so as to assure that, given such an accident, the health and safety of the public will be reasonably protected. Another use of the information, in conjunction with accident and release probabilities, is to estimate the risks associated with the mission. That is, most space launches occur without incident. Given an accident, the most probable result relative to the RTGs is complete containment of the radioactive material. Only a small fraction of accidents might result in a release of fuel and subsequent radiological consequences. The combination of probability with consequence is risk, which can be compared to other human and societal risks to assure that no undue risks are implied by undertaking the mission. Book 2 contains eight appendices.

  7. Health effects models for nuclear power plant accident consequence analysis. Part 1, Introduction, integration, and summary: Revision 2

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Evans, J.S.; Abrahmson, S.; Bender, M.A.

    1993-10-01

    This report is a revision of NUREG/CR-4214, Rev. 1, Part 1 (1990), Health Effects Models for Nuclear Power Plant Accident Consequence Analysis. This revision has been made to incorporate changes to the Health Effects Models recommended in two addenda to the NUREG/CR-4214, Rev. 1, Part 11, 1989 report. The first of these addenda provided recommended changes to the health effects models for low-LET radiations based on recent reports from UNSCEAR, ICRP and NAS/NRC (BEIR V). The second addendum presented changes needed to incorporate alpha-emitting radionuclides into the accident exposure source term. As in the earlier version of this report, modelsmore » are provided for early and continuing effects, cancers and thyroid nodules, and genetic effects. Weibull dose-response functions are recommended for evaluating the risks of early and continuing health effects. Three potentially lethal early effects -- the hematopoietic, pulmonary, and gastrointestinal syndromes are considered. Linear and linear-quadratic models are recommended for estimating the risks of seven types of cancer in adults - leukemia, bone, lung, breast, gastrointestinal, thyroid, and ``other``. For most cancers, both incidence and mortality are addressed. Five classes of genetic diseases -- dominant, x-linked, aneuploidy, unbalanced translocations, and multifactorial diseases are also considered. Data are provided that should enable analysts to consider the timing and severity of each type of health risk.« less

  8. Multiple external hazards compound level 3 PSA methods research of nuclear power plant

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Handing; Liang, Xiaoyu; Zhang, Xiaoming; Yang, Jianfeng; Liu, Weidong; Lei, Dina

    2017-01-01

    2011 Fukushima nuclear power plant severe accident was caused by both earthquake and tsunami, which results in large amount of radioactive nuclides release. That accident has caused the radioactive contamination on the surrounding environment. Although this accident probability is extremely small, once such an accident happens that is likely to release a lot of radioactive materials into the environment, and cause radiation contamination. Therefore, studying accidents consequences is important and essential to improve nuclear power plant design and management. Level 3 PSA methods of nuclear power plant can be used to analyze radiological consequences, and quantify risk to the public health effects around nuclear power plants. Based on multiple external hazards compound level 3 PSA methods studies of nuclear power plant, and the description of the multiple external hazards compound level 3 PSA technology roadmap and important technical elements, as well as taking a coastal nuclear power plant as the reference site, we analyzed the impact of off-site consequences of nuclear power plant severe accidents caused by multiple external hazards. At last we discussed the impact of off-site consequences probabilistic risk studies and its applications under multiple external hazards compound conditions, and explained feasibility and reasonableness of emergency plans implementation.

  9. The SAS4A/SASSYS-1 Safety Analysis Code System, Version 5

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Fanning, T. H.; Brunett, A. J.; Sumner, T.

    The SAS4A/SASSYS-1 computer code is developed by Argonne National Laboratory for thermal, hydraulic, and neutronic analysis of power and flow transients in liquidmetal- cooled nuclear reactors (LMRs). SAS4A was developed to analyze severe core disruption accidents with coolant boiling and fuel melting and relocation, initiated by a very low probability coincidence of an accident precursor and failure of one or more safety systems. SASSYS-1, originally developed to address loss-of-decay-heat-removal accidents, has evolved into a tool for margin assessment in design basis accident (DBA) analysis and for consequence assessment in beyond-design-basis accident (BDBA) analysis. SAS4A contains detailed, mechanistic models of transientmore » thermal, hydraulic, neutronic, and mechanical phenomena to describe the response of the reactor core, its coolant, fuel elements, and structural members to accident conditions. The core channel models in SAS4A provide the capability to analyze the initial phase of core disruptive accidents, through coolant heat-up and boiling, fuel element failure, and fuel melting and relocation. Originally developed to analyze oxide fuel clad with stainless steel, the models in SAS4A have been extended and specialized to metallic fuel with advanced alloy cladding. SASSYS-1 provides the capability to perform a detailed thermal/hydraulic simulation of the primary and secondary sodium coolant circuits and the balance-ofplant steam/water circuit. These sodium and steam circuit models include component models for heat exchangers, pumps, valves, turbines, and condensers, and thermal/hydraulic models of pipes and plena. SASSYS-1 also contains a plant protection and control system modeling capability, which provides digital representations of reactor, pump, and valve controllers and their response to input signal changes.« less

  10. Estimation of fatality and injury risk by means of in-depth fatal accident investigation data.

    PubMed

    Yannis, George; Papadimitriou, Eleonora; Dupont, Emmanuelle; Martensen, Heike

    2010-10-01

    In this article the factors affecting fatality and injury risk of road users involved in fatal accidents are analyzed by means of in-depth accident investigation data, with emphasis on parameters not extensively explored in previous research. A fatal accident investigation (FAI) database is used, which includes intermediate-level in-depth data for a harmonized representative sample of 1300 fatal accidents in 7 European countries. The FAI database offers improved potential for analysis, because it includes information on a number of variables that are seldom available, complete, or accurately recorded in road accident databases. However, the fact that only fatal accidents are examined requires for methodological adjustments, namely, the correction for two types of effects on a road user's baseline risk: "accident size" effects, and "relative vulnerability" effects. Fatality and injury risk can be then modeled through multilevel logistic regression models, which account for the hierarchical dependences of the road accident process. The results show that the baseline fatality risk of road users involved in fatal accidents decreases with accident size and increases with the vulnerability of the road user. On the contrary, accident size increases nonfatal injury risk of road users involved in fatal accidents. Other significant effects on fatality and injury risk in fatal accidents include road user age, vehicle type, speed limit, the chain of accident events, vehicle maneuver, and safety equipment. In particular, the presence and use of safety equipment such as seat belt, antilock braking system (ABS), and electronic stability program (ESP) are protection factors for car occupants, especially for those seated at the front seats. Although ABS and ESP systems are typically associated with positive effects on accident occurrence, the results of this research revealed significant related effects on accident severity as well. Moreover, accident consequences are more severe when the most harmful event of the accident occurs later within the accident chain.

  11. 49 CFR 193.2013 - Incorporation by reference.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... Thermal Radiation Model for LNG Fires (March 2004) § 193.2057(a). (2) GTI-04/0049 (April 2004) “LNG Vapor... FEM3A for LNG Accident Consequence Analyses” (April 1997) § 193.2059. F. National Fire Protection...

  12. 49 CFR 193.2013 - Incorporation by reference.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... Thermal Radiation Model for LNG Fires (March 2004) § 193.2057(a). (2) GTI-04/0049 (April 2004) “LNG Vapor... FEM3A for LNG Accident Consequence Analyses” (April 1997) § 193.2059. F. National Fire Protection...

  13. 49 CFR 193.2013 - Incorporation by reference.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... Thermal Radiation Model for LNG Fires (March 2004) § 193.2057(a). (2) GTI-04/0049 (April 2004) “LNG Vapor... FEM3A for LNG Accident Consequence Analyses” (April 1997) § 193.2059. F. National Fire Protection...

  14. Radioactivity teaching: Environmental consequences of the radiological accident in Goiânia (Brazil)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anjos, R. M.; Facure, A.; Lima, E. L. N.; Gomes, P. R. S.; Santos, M. S.; Brage, J. A. P.; Okuno, E.; Yoshimura, E. M.; Umisedo, N. K.

    2001-03-01

    Ionizing radiation and its effects on human beings, radiation protection, and radiological accident prevention are topics usually not included in the physics courses at the Brazilian universities. As a consequence, high school teachers are not able to enlighten their students when radiological or nuclear accidents occur. This paper presents a teaching program on ionizing radiation physics, to be applied to undergraduate physics students and to physics high school teachers. It is based on the environmental consequences of the 1987 radiological accident in Goiânia. This program was applied to two undergraduate physics students, in 1999, at the Universidade Federal Fluminense, Brazil. Results of the gamma ray spectrometry measurements of samples collected in Goiânia by the students are presented.

  15. Thermodynamic consequences of hydrogen combustion within a containment of pressurized water reactor

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bury, Tomasz

    2011-12-01

    Gaseous hydrogen may be generated in a nuclear reactor system as an effect of the core overheating. This creates a risk of its uncontrolled combustion which may have a destructive consequences, as it could be observed during the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident. Favorable conditions for hydrogen production occur during heavy loss-of-coolant accidents. The author used an own computer code, called HEPCAL, of the lumped parameter type to realize a set of simulations of a large scale loss-of-coolant accidents scenarios within containment of second generation pressurized water reactor. Some simulations resulted in high pressure peaks, seemed to be irrational. A more detailed analysis and comparison with Three Mile Island and Fukushima accidents consequences allowed for withdrawing interesting conclusions.

  16. Cellular automata-based forecasting of the impact of accidental fire and toxic dispersion in process industries.

    PubMed

    Sarkar, Chinmoy; Abbasi, S A

    2006-09-01

    The strategies to prevent accidents from occurring in a process industry, or to minimize the harm if an accident does take place, always revolve around forecasting the likely accidents and their impacts. Based on the likely frequency and severity of the accidents, resources are committed towards preventing the accidents. Nearly all techniques of ranking hazardous units, be it the hazard and operability studies, fault tree analysis, hazard indice, etc.--qualitative as well as quantitative--depend essentially on the assessment of the likely frequency and the likely harm accidents in different units may cause. This fact makes it exceedingly important that the forecasting the accidents and their likely impact is done as accurately as possible. In the present study we introduce a new approach to accident forecasting based on the discrete modeling paradigm of cellular automata. In this treatment an accident is modeled as a self-evolving phenomena, the impact of which is strongly influenced by the size, nature, and position of the environmental components which lie in the vicinity of the accident site. The outward propagation of the mass, energy and momentum from the accident epicenter is modeled as a fast diffusion process occurring in discrete space-time coordinates. The quantum of energy and material that would flow into each discrete space element (cell) due to the accidental release is evaluated and the degree of vulnerability posed to the receptors if present in the cell is measured at the end of each time element. This approach is able to effectively take into account the modifications in the flux of energy and material which occur as a result of the heterogeneous environment prevailing between the accident epicenter and the receptor. Consequently, more realistic accident scenarios are generated than possible with the prevailing techniques. The efficacy of the approach has been illustrated with case studies.

  17. DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    White, J.E.; Roussin, R.W.; Gilpin, H.

    A version of the CRAC2 computer code applicable for use in analyses of consequences and risks of reactor accidents in case work for environmental statements has been implemented for use on the Nuclear Regulatory Commission Data General MV/8000 computer system. Input preparation is facilitated through the use of an interactive computer program which operates on an IBM personal computer. The resulting CRAC2 input deck is transmitted to the MV/8000 by using an error-free file transfer mechanism. To facilitate the use of CRAC2 at NRC, relevant background material on input requirements and model descriptions has been extracted from four reports -more » ''Calculations of Reactor Accident Consequences,'' Version 2, NUREG/CR-2326 (SAND81-1994) and ''CRAC2 Model Descriptions,'' NUREG/CR-2552 (SAND82-0342), ''CRAC Calculations for Accident Sections of Environmental Statements, '' NUREG/CR-2901 (SAND82-1693), and ''Sensitivity and Uncertainty Studies of the CRAC2 Computer Code,'' NUREG/CR-4038 (ORNL-6114). When this background information is combined with instructions on the input processor, this report provides a self-contained guide for preparing CRAC2 input data with a specific orientation toward applications on the MV/8000. 8 refs., 11 figs., 10 tabs.« less

  18. Loss Estimations due to Earthquakes and Secondary Technological Hazards

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Frolova, N.; Larionov, V.; Bonnin, J.

    2009-04-01

    Expected loss and damage assessment due to natural and technological disasters are of primary importance for emergency management just after the disaster, as well as for development and implementation of preventive measures plans. The paper addresses the procedures and simulation models for loss estimations due to strong earthquakes and secondary technological accidents. The mathematical models for shaking intensity distribution, damage to buildings and structures, debris volume, number of fatalities and injuries due to earthquakes and technological accidents at fire and chemical hazardous facilities are considered, which are used in geographical information systems assigned for these purposes. The criteria of technological accidents occurrence are developed on the basis of engineering analysis of past events' consequences. The paper is providing the results of scenario earthquakes consequences estimation and individual seismic risk assessment taking into account the secondary technological hazards at regional and urban levels. The individual risk is understood as the probability of death (or injuries) due to possible hazardous event within one year in a given territory. It is determined through mathematical expectation of social losses taking into account the number of inhabitants in the considered settlement and probability of natural and/or technological disaster.

  19. Possible consequences of severe accidents at the Lubiatowo site, Poland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seibert, Petra; Philipp, Anne; Hofman, Radek; Gufler, Klaus; Sholly, Steven

    2014-05-01

    The construction of a nuclear power plant is under consideration in Poland. One of the sites under discussion is near Lubiatowo, located on the cost of the Baltic Sea northwest of Gdansk. An assessment of possible environmental consequences is carried out for 88 real meteorological cases with the Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART. Based on literature research, three reactor designs (ABWR, EPR, AP 1000) were identified as being under discussion in Poland. For each of the designs, a set of accident scenarios was evaluated and two source terms per reactor design were selected for analysis. One of the selected source terms was a relatively large release while the second one was a severe accident with an intact containment. Considered endpoints of the calculations are ground contamination with Cs-137 and time-integrated concentrations of I-131 in air as well as committed doses. They are evaluated on a grid of ca. 3 km mesh size covering eastern Central Europe.

  20. Offsite Radiological Consequence Analysis for the Bounding Flammable Gas Accident

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    CARRO, C.A.

    2003-07-30

    This document quantifies the offsite radiological consequences of the bounding flammable gas accident for comparison with the 25 rem Evaluation Guideline established in DOE-STD-3009, Appendix A. The bounding flammable gas accident is a detonation in a single-shell tank The calculation applies reasonably conservation input parameters in accordance with DOE-STD-3009, Appendix A, guidance. Revision 1 incorporates comments received from Office of River Protection.

  1. Investigating the multi-causal and complex nature of the accident causal influence of construction project features.

    PubMed

    Manu, Patrick A; Ankrah, Nii A; Proverbs, David G; Suresh, Subashini

    2012-09-01

    Construction project features (CPFs) are organisational, physical and operational attributes that characterise construction projects. Although previous studies have examined the accident causal influence of CPFs, the multi-causal attribute of this causal phenomenon still remain elusive and thus requires further investigation. Aiming to shed light on this facet of the accident causal phenomenon of CPFs, this study examines relevant literature and crystallises the attained insight of the multi-causal attribute by a graphical model which is subsequently operationalised by a derived mathematical risk expression that offers a systematic approach for evaluating the potential of CPFs to cause harm and consequently their health and safety (H&S) risk implications. The graphical model and the risk expression put forth by the study thus advance current understanding of the accident causal phenomenon of CPFs and they present an opportunity for project participants to manage the H&S risk associated with CPFs from the early stages of project procurement. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. 75 FR 17439 - Biweekly Notice; Applications and Amendments to Facility Operating Licenses Involving No...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-04-06

    ... of an accident or that supports mitigation of an accident previously evaluated. The proposed... probability or consequences of an accident previously evaluated; or (2) create the possibility of a new or different kind of accident from any accident previously evaluated; or (3) involve a significant reduction in...

  3. [Occupational accidents in Barcelona (Spain), from 1992 to 1993].

    PubMed

    Sampaio, R F; Martin, M; Artazcoz, L; Moncada, S

    1998-08-01

    The statistics related to labor accidents as with any other notification system ought to be the basis for programs and policies with a view to the adoption of preventive measures. In order to establish preventive norms, however, the health system needs data from researchers focussing on the dynamics of and the pitfalls revealed by specific events. Within this context the main objective of this study is to proceed with an in-depth analysis of the labor accidents verified in Barcelona (Spain) using for this purpose a descriptive statistics model to test variables such as type of accident, economic sector, economic enterprise and type of labor contract. The data source utilized was the notification system for labor accidents with grave consequences such as death of the victim registered in Barcelona during the period 1992-1993. Labor accidents registered for male workers numbered 848. A log-linear model was applied to this data base. The results show a positive association between traumatic accidents with the construction, traffic and services sectors. A positive association was also found between traumatic accidents and the size of the company concerved the small ones being the worse type in terms of worker's injuries. Regarding the nontraumatic accidents, the study showed a positive correlation between large-sized enterprises and type of temporary worker and the civil construction sector as compared to workers with long term work contracts within industry and services. There was some evidence, also, of a positive association between small and medium sized companies and temporary work and the occurrence of work accidents.

  4. [Health-related consequences of obstructive sleep apnea: daytime sleepiness, accident risk and legal aspects].

    PubMed

    Orth, M; Kotterba, S

    2012-04-01

    Daytime sleepiness for any reason leads to impairment of daytime performance and an increased accident rate. The consequences are an increase of illness- and accident-related costs for the health system. Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is one of the major reasons for increased daytime sleepiness, especially in professional drivers. The accident frequency in OSA can be significantly reduced by adequate continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) therapy. Up till now there are no uniform legal regulations about the handling of OSAS patients or patients with daytime sleepiness due to other diseases as far as driving ability is concerned.

  5. Single vehicle accident study

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1977-11-01

    The general objectives of this study were to determine the nature and causes of single vehicle accidents, describe their resulting consequences, and develop recommendations to effect a reduction in the frequency and severity of these accidents. Analy...

  6. Preventing accidents

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2005-08-01

    As the most effective strategy for improving safety is to prevent accidents from occurring at all, the Volpe Center applies a broad range of research techniques and capabilities to determine causes and consequences of accidents and to identify, asses...

  7. The kinetics of aerosol particle formation and removal in NPP severe accidents

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zatevakhin, Mikhail A.; Arefiev, Valentin K.; Semashko, Sergey E.; Dolganov, Rostislav A.

    2016-06-01

    Severe Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) accidents are accompanied by release of a massive amount of energy, radioactive products and hydrogen into the atmosphere of the NPP containment. A valid estimation of consequences of such accidents can only be carried out through the use of the integrated codes comprising a description of the basic processes which determine the consequences. A brief description of a coupled aerosol and thermal-hydraulic code to be used for the calculation of the aerosol kinetics within the NPP containment in case of a severe accident is given. The code comprises a KIN aerosol unit integrated into the KUPOL-M thermal-hydraulic code. Some features of aerosol behavior in severe NPP accidents are briefly described.

  8. The kinetics of aerosol particle formation and removal in NPP severe accidents

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Zatevakhin, Mikhail A.; Arefiev, Valentin K.; Semashko, Sergey E.

    2016-06-08

    Severe Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) accidents are accompanied by release of a massive amount of energy, radioactive products and hydrogen into the atmosphere of the NPP containment. A valid estimation of consequences of such accidents can only be carried out through the use of the integrated codes comprising a description of the basic processes which determine the consequences. A brief description of a coupled aerosol and thermal–hydraulic code to be used for the calculation of the aerosol kinetics within the NPP containment in case of a severe accident is given. The code comprises a KIN aerosol unit integrated into themore » KUPOL-M thermal–hydraulic code. Some features of aerosol behavior in severe NPP accidents are briefly described.« less

  9. 10 CFR 76.85 - Assessment of accidents.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 10 Energy 2 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Assessment of accidents. 76.85 Section 76.85 Energy NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION (CONTINUED) CERTIFICATION OF GASEOUS DIFFUSION PLANTS Safety § 76.85 Assessment of accidents. The Corporation shall perform an analysis of potential accidents and consequences to...

  10. 10 CFR 76.85 - Assessment of accidents.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 10 Energy 2 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Assessment of accidents. 76.85 Section 76.85 Energy NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION (CONTINUED) CERTIFICATION OF GASEOUS DIFFUSION PLANTS Safety § 76.85 Assessment of accidents. The Corporation shall perform an analysis of potential accidents and consequences to...

  11. 10 CFR 76.85 - Assessment of accidents.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 10 Energy 2 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Assessment of accidents. 76.85 Section 76.85 Energy NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION (CONTINUED) CERTIFICATION OF GASEOUS DIFFUSION PLANTS Safety § 76.85 Assessment of accidents. The Corporation shall perform an analysis of potential accidents and consequences to...

  12. 10 CFR 76.85 - Assessment of accidents.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 10 Energy 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Assessment of accidents. 76.85 Section 76.85 Energy NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION (CONTINUED) CERTIFICATION OF GASEOUS DIFFUSION PLANTS Safety § 76.85 Assessment of accidents. The Corporation shall perform an analysis of potential accidents and consequences to...

  13. 10 CFR 76.85 - Assessment of accidents.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 10 Energy 2 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Assessment of accidents. 76.85 Section 76.85 Energy NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION (CONTINUED) CERTIFICATION OF GASEOUS DIFFUSION PLANTS Safety § 76.85 Assessment of accidents. The Corporation shall perform an analysis of potential accidents and consequences to...

  14. Accident prediction model for public highway-rail grade crossings.

    PubMed

    Lu, Pan; Tolliver, Denver

    2016-05-01

    Considerable research has focused on roadway accident frequency analysis, but relatively little research has examined safety evaluation at highway-rail grade crossings. Highway-rail grade crossings are critical spatial locations of utmost importance for transportation safety because traffic crashes at highway-rail grade crossings are often catastrophic with serious consequences. The Poisson regression model has been employed to analyze vehicle accident frequency as a good starting point for many years. The most commonly applied variations of Poisson including negative binomial, and zero-inflated Poisson. These models are used to deal with common crash data issues such as over-dispersion (sample variance is larger than the sample mean) and preponderance of zeros (low sample mean and small sample size). On rare occasions traffic crash data have been shown to be under-dispersed (sample variance is smaller than the sample mean) and traditional distributions such as Poisson or negative binomial cannot handle under-dispersion well. The objective of this study is to investigate and compare various alternate highway-rail grade crossing accident frequency models that can handle the under-dispersion issue. The contributions of the paper are two-fold: (1) application of probability models to deal with under-dispersion issues and (2) obtain insights regarding to vehicle crashes at public highway-rail grade crossings. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. [Medical consequences of drinking water pollution resulting from a chemical accident].

    PubMed

    Bulatova, F D; Teregulova, Z S

    1992-01-01

    The article describes consequences of the chemical accident in Ufa, lead to the drinkable water pollution by phenol and chlorophenolic compounds. Events required the prompt prophylactic measures and reconstruction of health care in the city. The treatment tactics approved at that period of time are represented.

  16. Safety distance assessment of industrial toxic releases based on frequency and consequence: a case study in Shanghai, China.

    PubMed

    Yu, Q; Zhang, Y; Wang, X; Ma, W C; Chen, L M

    2009-09-15

    A case study on the safety distance assessment of a chemical industry park in Shanghai, China, is presented in this paper. Toxic releases were taken into consideration. A safety criterion based on frequency and consequence of major hazard accidents was set up for consequence analysis. The exposure limits for the accidents with the frequency of more than 10(-4), 10(-5)-10(-4) and 10(-6)-10(-5) per year were mortalities of 1% (or SLOT), 50% (SLOD) and 75% (twice of SLOD) respectively. Accidents with the frequency of less than 10(-6) per year were considered incredible and ignored in the consequence analysis. Taking the safety distance of all the hazard installations in a chemical plant into consideration, the results based on the new criterion were almost smaller than those based on LC50 or SLOD. The combination of the consequence and risk based results indicated that the hazard installations in two of the chemical plants may be dangerous to the protection targets and measurements had to be taken to reduce the risk. The case study showed that taking account of the frequency of occurrence in the consequence analysis would give more feasible safety distances for major hazard accidents and the results were more comparable to those calculated by risk assessment.

  17. ARAMIS project: a comprehensive methodology for the identification of reference accident scenarios in process industries.

    PubMed

    Delvosalle, Christian; Fievez, Cécile; Pipart, Aurore; Debray, Bruno

    2006-03-31

    In the frame of the Accidental Risk Assessment Methodology for Industries (ARAMIS) project, this paper aims at presenting the work carried out in the part of the project devoted to the definition of accident scenarios. This topic is a key-point in risk assessment and serves as basis for the whole risk quantification. The first result of the work is the building of a methodology for the identification of major accident hazards (MIMAH), which is carried out with the development of generic fault and event trees based on a typology of equipment and substances. The term "major accidents" must be understood as the worst accidents likely to occur on the equipment, assuming that no safety systems are installed. A second methodology, called methodology for the identification of reference accident scenarios (MIRAS) takes into account the influence of safety systems on both the frequencies and possible consequences of accidents. This methodology leads to identify more realistic accident scenarios. The reference accident scenarios are chosen with the help of a tool called "risk matrix", crossing the frequency and the consequences of accidents. This paper presents both methodologies and an application on an ethylene oxide storage.

  18. Link state relationships under incident conditions : using a CTM-based linear programming dynamic traffic assignment model.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2010-03-01

    Urban transportation networks, consisting of numerous links and nodes, experience traffic incidents such as accidents and road : maintenance work. A typical consequence of incidents is congestion which results in long queues and causes high travel ti...

  19. Link State Relationships Under Incident Conditions: Using a CTM-Based Linear Programming Dynamic Traffic Assignment Model

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2010-03-01

    Urban transportation networks, consisting of numerous links and nodes, experience traffic incidents such as accidents and road maintenance work. A typical consequence of incidents is congestion which results in long queues and causes high travel time...

  20. DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Shi, X.P.

    Empirical studies on the effectiveness of workplace safety regulations are inconclusive. This study hypothesizes that the asynchronous effects of safety regulations occur because regulations need time to become effective. Safety regulations will work initially by reducing the most serious accidents, and later by improving overall safety performance. The hypothesis is tested by studying a provincial level aggregate panel dataset for China's coal industry using two different models with different sets of dependent variables: a fixed-effects model on mortality rate, which is defined as fatalities per 1,000 employees; and a negative binominal model on the annual number (frequency) of disastrous accidents.more » Safety regulations can reduce the frequency of disastrous accidents, but have not reduced mortality rate, which represents overall safety performance. Policy recommendations are made, including shifting production from small to large mines through industrial consolidation, improving the safety performance of large mines, addressing consequences of decentralization, and facilitating the implementation of regulations through carrying on institutional actions and supporting legislation.« less

  1. The influence of economic incentives linked to road safety indicators on accidents: the case of toll concessions in Spain.

    PubMed

    Rangel, Thais; Vassallo, José Manuel; Herraiz, Israel

    2013-10-01

    The goal of this paper is to evaluate whether the incentives incorporated in toll highway concession contracts in order to encourage private operators to adopt measures to reduce accidents are actually effective at improving safety. To this end, we implemented negative binomial regression models using information about highway characteristics and accident data from toll highway concessions in Spain from 2007 to 2009. Our results show that even though road safety is highly influenced by variables that are not managed by the contractor, such as the annual average daily traffic (AADT), the percentage of heavy vehicles on the highway, number of lanes, number of intersections and average speed; the implementation of these incentives has a positive influence on the reduction of accidents and injuries. Consequently, this measure seems to be an effective way of improving safety performance in road networks. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Burden, distribution and impact of domestic accidents in a semi-urban area of coastal Tamil Nadu, India.

    PubMed

    Stalin, P; Senthilvel, V; Kanimozhy, K; Singh, Zile; Rajkamal, R; Purty, Anil J

    2015-01-01

    The objectives of this study are to determine the prevalence of domestic accidents, describe the factors associated with domestic accidents and assess the medical and economical consequences of domestic accidents. Community-based cross-sectional study was conducted in a semi-urban area of Tamil Nadu during February 2013. A total of 3947 study participants were interviewed using a structured questionnaire. Study variables included were socio-demography, housing conditions, epidemiological factors, medical and economical consequences of domestic accidents. Means and proportions were calculated. The prevalence of domestic accidents was 12.7%. Out of 500 domestic accidents, falls (54.4%) was the most common type of domestic accident. Females and the respondents in age group of 21-40 years were more commonly affected. About 60% of victims received treatment. Mean duration of hospital stay, mean amount of money spent for treatment and mean number of days away from routine work for falls category were 16 days, US$25 and 8 days, respectively, which are higher than other types of accidents. The burden and impact of domestic accidents was high. Therefore, in order to prevent and control domestic accidents, promotion of house safety measures and creation of awareness among the community using IEC programmes have to be undertaken.

  3. Contamination and radiation exposure in central Europe after the Chernobyl accident

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Bayer, A.; Mueck, K.; Loosli, H.H.

    1996-06-01

    Ten years ago, on 26 April 1986, as a consequence of an accident in Unit 4 of the Chernobyl-NPP, a large quantity of radioactive material was released into the atmosphere for some days. This material was spread over wide areas of Europe. Due to variable weather conditions the activity concentrations in air varied considerably in different regions. Also as a consequence of large variations in precipitation intensity-particularly in the regions of Southeastern Germany, Austria and Southern Switzerland-up to 100 kBq m{sup -2} {sup 137}Cs were deposited on the soil. Due to fallout, washout, and/or rainout, a range of foodstuffs weremore » contaminated, and foodstuffs directly exposed to the fallout [vegetables and green fodder (grass)] showed the highest contamination levels. Consequently, milk also showed a significantly increased activity concentration, in particular of {sup 131}I. In the following years contamination in all kinds of foodstuffs decreased, but elevated contamination levels in special pathways like venison and mushrooms are still observed to date. This contamination resulted in additional exposure, mainly due to external radiation from ground and from consumption of contaminated food. The radiation exposure in the most contaminated areas was calculated on the basis of model assumptions and was found to be about 1 mSv during the first year after the accident. Using this model, the ingestion pathway was overestimated by at least a factor of two. This additional exposure decreased and is now less than 1 % on average; in the most contaminated areas, this is a few percent of the average natural radiation exposure.« less

  4. Severity of electrical accidents in the construction industry in Spain.

    PubMed

    Suárez-Cebador, Manuel; Rubio-Romero, Juan Carlos; López-Arquillos, Antonio

    2014-02-01

    This paper analyzes the severity of workplace accidents involving electricity in the Spanish construction sector comprising 2,776 accidents from 2003 to 2008. The investigation considered the impact of 13 variables, classified into 5 categories: Personal, Business, Temporal, Material, and Spatial. The findings showed that electrical accidents are almost five times more likely to have serious consequences than the average accident in the sector and it also showed how the variables of age, occupation, company size, length of service, preventive measures, time of day, days of absence, physical activity, material agent, type of injury, body part injured, accident location, and type of location are related to the severity of the electrical accidents under consideration. The present situation makes it clear that greater effort needs to be made in training, monitoring, and signage to guarantee a safe working environment in relation to electrical hazards. This research enables safety technicians, companies, and government officials to identify priorities and to design training strategies to minimize the serious consequences of electrical accidents for construction workers. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd and National Safety Council. All rights reserved.

  5. Psychiatric consequences of stress after a vehicle accident.

    PubMed

    Dickov, Aleksandra; Martinović-Mitrović, Sladjana; Vucković, Nikola; Siladji-Mladenović, Djendji; Mitrović, Dragan; Jovicević, Mirjana; Misić-Pavkov, Gordana

    2009-12-01

    Vehicle accidents are a common cause of disease and death among people over 30 years of age. Essentially, reaction to stress due to the vehicle accident does not differ from the reaction to other stress factors. There are still no uniform viewpoints about the kind of sequels and their percentage representation after vehicle accidents. The research was provided as a prospective study, included 150 subjects who had vehicle accident minimum 2 years prior to the examination. A questionnaire adjusted to the needs of the research and a battery of psychological tests was used. Affective disorders occurred in 35.33% of subjects, 65% of persons suffer from travel anxiety, 9% of the total number of examinees doesn't drive any more, 65% have somatisational dysfunctions of the vegetative nervous system, while the posttraumatic stress disorder is present in 36% of subjects. In 87.4% of persons psychiatric consequences last over two years. Long term consequences in 60% of subjects occur as a combination of multiple psychiatric disorders, so the posttraumatic stress disorder and affective disorders never occur one at a time.

  6. Challenge and Error: Critical Events and Attention-Related Errors

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cheyne, James Allan; Carriere, Jonathan S. A.; Solman, Grayden J. F.; Smilek, Daniel

    2011-01-01

    Attention lapses resulting from reactivity to task challenges and their consequences constitute a pervasive factor affecting everyday performance errors and accidents. A bidirectional model of attention lapses (error [image omitted] attention-lapse: Cheyne, Solman, Carriere, & Smilek, 2009) argues that errors beget errors by generating attention…

  7. Lifelong modelling of properties for materials with technological memory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Falaleev, AP; Meshkov, VV; Vetrogon, AA; Ogrizkov, SV; Shymchenko, AV

    2016-10-01

    An investigation of real automobile parts produced from dual phase steel during standard periods of life cycle is presented, which considers such processes as stamping, exploitation, automobile accident, and further repair. The development of the phenomenological model of the mechanical properties of such parts was based on the two surface plastic theory of Chaboche. As a consequence of the composite structure of dual phase steel, it was shown that local mechanical properties of parts produced from this material change significantly their during their life cycle, depending on accumulated plastic deformations and thermal treatments. Such mechanical property changes have a considerable impact on the accuracy of the computer modelling of automobile behaviour. The most significant errors of modelling were obtained at the critical operating conditions, such as crashes and accidents. The model developed takes into account the kinematics (Bauschinger effect), isotropic hardening, non-linear elastic steel behaviour and changes caused by the thermal treatment. Using finite element analysis, the model allows the evaluation of the passive safety of a repaired car body, and enables increased restoration accuracy following an accident. The model was confirmed experimentally for parts produced from dual phase steel DP780.

  8. A decade of occupational accidents due to direct or indirect electrical contact in the primary, secondary and tertiary sectors in Spain (2003-2012).

    PubMed

    Castillo-Rosa, Juan; Suárez-Cebador, Manuel; Rubio-Romero, Juan Carlos; Aguado, Jose Antonio

    2017-03-01

    Occupational accidents caused by electrical contact are a major concern worldwide due to their severe consequences. The study conducted is based on an analysis of the evolution of incidence rates and dependence between variables for 14,022 electrical accidents occurring in Spain between 2003 and 2012. The results show that electrical accidents as a whole are 3.6 times more likely to have severe consequences than the rest of the accidents in the country. This proportion is even nine times greater in the case of fatal accidents. They also confirm a significant relationship between the severity of this type of accidents and the economic sector in which they occur. On the other hand, there is a positive trend in the reduction of the incidence rate, especially in relation to direct contact, although unexpectedly the rate of accidents due to indirect contact is on the rise. Thus, preventing electrical occupational accidents requires efforts to guarantee adequate training adapted to the needs of workers in the various economic sectors. Furthermore, those responsible for safety should work to implement mechanisms to monitor and control compliance with efficient protective measures against electrical contact.

  9. Management of Ultimate Risk of Nuclear Power Plants by Source Terms - Lessons Learned from the Chernobyl Accident

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Genn Saji

    2006-07-01

    The term 'ultimate risk' is used here to describe the probabilities and radiological consequences that should be incorporated in siting, containment design and accident management of nuclear power plants for hypothetical accidents. It is closely related with the source terms specified in siting criteria which assures an adequate separation of radioactive inventories of the plants from the public, in the event of a hypothetical and severe accident situation. The author would like to point out that current source terms which are based on the information from the Windscale accident (1957) through TID-14844 are very outdated and do not incorporate lessonsmore » learned from either the Three Miles Island (TMI, 1979) nor Chernobyl accident (1986), two of the most severe accidents ever experienced. As a result of the observations of benign radionuclides released at TMI, the technical community in the US felt that a more realistic evaluation of severe reactor accident source terms was necessary. In this background, the 'source term research project' was organized in 1984 to respond to these challenges. Unfortunately, soon after the time of the final report from this project was released, the Chernobyl accident occurred. Due to the enormous consequences induced by then accident, the one time optimistic perspectives in establishing a more realistic source term were completely shattered. The Chernobyl accident, with its human death toll and dispersion of a large part of the fission fragments inventories into the environment, created a significant degradation in the public's acceptance of nuclear energy throughout the world. In spite of this, nuclear communities have been prudent in responding to the public's anxiety towards the ultimate safety of nuclear plants, since there still remained many unknown points revolving around the mechanism of the Chernobyl accident. In order to resolve some of these mysteries, the author has performed a scoping study of the dispersion and deposition mechanisms of fuel particles and fission fragments during the initial phase of the Chernobyl accident. Through this study, it is now possible to generally reconstruct the radiological consequences by using a dispersion calculation technique, combined with the meteorological data at the time of the accident and land contamination densities of {sup 137}Cs measured and reported around the Chernobyl area. Although it is challenging to incorporate lessons learned from the Chernobyl accident into the source term issues, the author has already developed an example of safety goals by incorporating the radiological consequences of the accident. The example provides safety goals by specifying source term releases in a graded approach in combination with probabilities, i.e. risks. The author believes that the future source term specification should be directly linked with safety goals. (author)« less

  10. An Accident Precursor Analysis Process Tailored for NASA Space Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Groen, Frank; Stamatelatos, Michael; Dezfuli, Homayoon; Maggio, Gaspare

    2010-01-01

    Accident Precursor Analysis (APA) serves as the bridge between existing risk modeling activities, which are often based on historical or generic failure statistics, and system anomalies, which provide crucial information about the failure mechanisms that are actually operative in the system and which may differ in frequency or type from those in the various models. These discrepancies between the models (perceived risk) and the system (actual risk) provide the leading indication of an underappreciated risk. This paper presents an APA process developed specifically for NASA Earth-to-Orbit space systems. The purpose of the process is to identify and characterize potential sources of system risk as evidenced by anomalous events which, although not necessarily presenting an immediate safety impact, may indicate that an unknown or insufficiently understood risk-significant condition exists in the system. Such anomalous events are considered accident precursors because they signal the potential for severe consequences that may occur in the future, due to causes that are discernible from their occurrence today. Their early identification allows them to be integrated into the overall system risk model used to intbrm decisions relating to safety.

  11. Analysis of traffic accidents in Romania, 2009.

    PubMed

    Călinoiu, Geovana; Minca, Dana Galieta; Furtunescu, Florentina Ligia

    2012-01-01

    This paper aimed to underline the main consequences of traffic accidents in Romania 2009 and their associated causes or circumstances. We identified some problematic geographic areas, some critical months or moments of the day and also the most frequent causes; all these should become targets for the future planning. The current analysis provides some priority criteria for public health interventions. So, the future national road safety strategy should be in line with the EU objectives, but also with the national priorities. Romania is far away from the average EU target for 2010 of halving the death by traffic accidents registered in 2001. To describe the circumstances and the consequences related to traffic accidents registered in Romania, for the year 2009. An ecological study was conducted. The traffic accidents circumstances were analyzed in terms of magnitude, geographic space, time and cause. The consequences were analyzed as affected people and damaged cars. A total of 28,627 traffic accidents were registered in Romania during the year 2009. 2,796 people were killed and 27,968 were hospitalized and 42,443 cars were damaged. 3 of 4 accidents were caused by violations on behalf of the car drivers. Most common violations in car drivers were excess of speed and priority violations (52.4%). Among the pedestrians, 7 of 10 accidents were caused by illegal crossing. A higher number of accidents occurred during the summer months and during the evening hours (from 5.00 pm till 8.00 pm). The traffic accidents represent a real public health problem in Romania and a serious burden for the health system. The gap between Romania and the other EU member states needs to be diminished in the next decade. In this purpose, the future national road safety strategy should be in line with the EU objectives, but also with the national priorities. Research is needed to understand the causes and the socio-economical impact of traffic accidents and to define appropriate national objectives.

  12. The Initial Atmospheric Transport (IAT) Code: Description and Validation

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Morrow, Charles W.; Bartel, Timothy James

    The Initial Atmospheric Transport (IAT) computer code was developed at Sandia National Laboratories as part of their nuclear launch accident consequences analysis suite of computer codes. The purpose of IAT is to predict the initial puff/plume rise resulting from either a solid rocket propellant or liquid rocket fuel fire. The code generates initial conditions for subsequent atmospheric transport calculations. The Initial Atmospheric Transfer (IAT) code has been compared to two data sets which are appropriate to the design space of space launch accident analyses. The primary model uncertainties are the entrainment coefficients for the extended Taylor model. The Titan 34Dmore » accident (1986) was used to calibrate these entrainment settings for a prototypic liquid propellant accident while the recent Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory (JHU/APL, or simply APL) large propellant block tests (2012) were used to calibrate the entrainment settings for prototypic solid propellant accidents. North American Meteorology (NAM )formatted weather data profiles are used by IAT to determine the local buoyancy force balance. The IAT comparisons for the APL solid propellant tests illustrate the sensitivity of the plume elevation to the weather profiles; that is, the weather profile is a dominant factor in determining the plume elevation. The IAT code performed remarkably well and is considered validated for neutral weather conditions.« less

  13. Environmental risk management for radiological accidents: integrating risk assessment and decision analysis for remediation at different spatial scales.

    PubMed

    Yatsalo, Boris; Sullivan, Terrence; Didenko, Vladimir; Linkov, Igor

    2011-07-01

    The consequences of the Tohuku earthquake and subsequent tsunami in March 2011 caused a loss of power at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, in Japan, and led to the release of radioactive materials into the environment. Although the full extent of the contamination is not currently known, the highly complex nature of the environmental contamination (radionuclides in water, soil, and agricultural produce) typical of nuclear accidents requires a detailed geospatial analysis of information with the ability to extrapolate across different scales with applications to risk assessment models and decision making support. This article briefly summarizes the approach used to inform risk-based land management and remediation decision making after the Chernobyl, Soviet Ukraine, accident in 1986. Copyright © 2011 SETAC.

  14. Emergency drinking water treatment during source water pollution accidents in China: origin analysis, framework and technologies.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Xiao-Jian; Chen, Chao; Lin, Peng-Fei; Hou, Ai-Xin; Niu, Zhang-Bin; Wang, Jun

    2011-01-01

    China has suffered frequent source water contamination accidents in the past decade, which has resulted in severe consequences to the water supply of millions of residents. The origins of typical cases of contamination are discussed in this paper as well as the emergency response to these accidents. In general, excessive pursuit of rapid industrialization and the unreasonable location of factories are responsible for the increasing frequency of accidental pollution events. Moreover, insufficient attention to environmental protection and rudimentary emergency response capability has exacerbated the consequences of such accidents. These environmental accidents triggered or accelerated the promulgation of stricter environmental protection policy and the shift from economic development mode to a more sustainable direction, which should be regarded as the turning point of environmental protection in China. To guarantee water security, China is trying to establish a rapid and effective emergency response framework, build up the capability of early accident detection, and develop efficient technologies to remove contaminants from water.

  15. Medical and policy considerations for nuclear and radiation accidents, incidents and terrorism.

    PubMed

    Gale, Robert Peter

    2017-11-01

    The purpose of this review is to address the increasing medical and public concern regarding the health consequences of radiation exposure, a concern shaped not only by fear of another Chernobyl or Fukushima nuclear power facility accident but also by the intentional use of a nuclear weapon, a radiological dispersion device, a radiological exposure device, or an improved nuclear device by rogue states such as North Korea and terrorist organizations such as Al Qaeda and ISIS. The United States has the medical capacity to respond to a limited nuclear or radiation accident or incident but an effective medical response to a catastrophic nuclear event is impossible. Dealing effectively with nuclear and radiation accidents or incidents requires diverse strategies, including policy decisions, public education, and medical preparedness. I review medical consequences of exposures to ionizing radiations, likely concomitant injuries and potential medical intervention. These data should help haematologists and other healthcare professionals understand the principles of medical consequences of nuclear terrorism. However, the best strategy is prevention.

  16. Critical Protection Item classification for a waste processing facility at Savannah River Site

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Ades, M.J.; Garrett, R.J.

    1993-10-01

    This paper describes the methodology for Critical Protection Item (CPI) classification and its application to the Structures, Systems and Components (SSC) of a waste processing facility at the Savannah River Site (SRS). The WSRC methodology for CPI classification includes the evaluation of the radiological and non-radiological consequences resulting from postulated accidents at the waste processing facility and comparison of these consequences with allowable limits. The types of accidents considered include explosions and fire in the facility and postulated accidents due to natural phenomena, including earthquakes, tornadoes, and high velocity straight winds. The radiological analysis results indicate that CPIs are notmore » required at the waste processing facility to mitigate the consequences of radiological release. The non-radiological analysis, however, shows that the Waste Storage Tank (WST) and the dike spill containment structures around the formic acid tanks in the cold chemical feed area and waste treatment area of the facility should be identified as CPIs. Accident mitigation options are provided and discussed.« less

  17. Fuzzy approach for reducing subjectivity in estimating occupational accident severity.

    PubMed

    Pinto, Abel; Ribeiro, Rita A; Nunes, Isabel L

    2012-03-01

    Quantifying or, more generally, estimating the severity of the possible consequences of occupational accidents is a decisive step in any occupational risk assessment process. Because of the lack of historic information (accident data collection and recording are incipient and insufficient, particularly in construction) and the lack of practical tools in the construction industry, the estimation/quantification of occupational accident severity is a notably arbitrary process rather than a systematic and rigorous assessment. This work proposes several severity functions (based on a safety risk assessment) to represent biomechanical knowledge with the aim of determining the severity level of occupational accidents in the construction industry and, consequently, improving occupational risk assessment quality. We follow a fuzzy approach because it makes it possible to capture and represent imprecise knowledge in a simple and understandable way for users and specialists. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Analysis of the causes and consequences of falls from scaffolding using the Polish construction industry as an example

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hoła, A.; Hoła, B.; Szóstak, M.

    2017-10-01

    The results of research published in many publications indicate that the scale of the problem of accidents at work in the construction industry is significant. Fatal and serious accidents, which in the construction industry are often a result of a fall from a height and associated with working on scaffolding, have a particularly strong impact on society. Systematic controls carried out on Polish construction sites indicate irregularities in the area of ensuring safety on scaffolding. As a result of conducted own studies, dozens of accidents caused by falls from scaffolding were selected from the total number of accidents at work in the construction industry and then analysed. The aim of the research was to identify the causes of these accidents and their consequences. The results of studies conducted in this area will be the content of the article.

  19. Categorizing accident sequences in the external radiotherapy for risk analysis

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Purpose This study identifies accident sequences from the past accidents in order to help the risk analysis application to the external radiotherapy. Materials and Methods This study reviews 59 accidental cases in two retrospective safety analyses that have collected the incidents in the external radiotherapy extensively. Two accident analysis reports that accumulated past incidents are investigated to identify accident sequences including initiating events, failure of safety measures, and consequences. This study classifies the accidents by the treatments stages and sources of errors for initiating events, types of failures in the safety measures, and types of undesirable consequences and the number of affected patients. Then, the accident sequences are grouped into several categories on the basis of similarity of progression. As a result, these cases can be categorized into 14 groups of accident sequence. Results The result indicates that risk analysis needs to pay attention to not only the planning stage, but also the calibration stage that is committed prior to the main treatment process. It also shows that human error is the largest contributor to initiating events as well as to the failure of safety measures. This study also illustrates an event tree analysis for an accident sequence initiated in the calibration. Conclusion This study is expected to provide sights into the accident sequences for the prospective risk analysis through the review of experiences. PMID:23865005

  20. Incorporating real-time traffic and weather data to explore road accident likelihood and severity in urban arterials.

    PubMed

    Theofilatos, Athanasios

    2017-06-01

    The effective treatment of road accidents and thus the enhancement of road safety is a major concern to societies due to the losses in human lives and the economic and social costs. The investigation of road accident likelihood and severity by utilizing real-time traffic and weather data has recently received significant attention by researchers. However, collected data mainly stem from freeways and expressways. Consequently, the aim of the present paper is to add to the current knowledge by investigating accident likelihood and severity by exploiting real-time traffic and weather data collected from urban arterials in Athens, Greece. Random Forests (RF) are firstly applied for preliminary analysis purposes. More specifically, it is aimed to rank candidate variables according to their relevant importance and provide a first insight on the potential significant variables. Then, Bayesian logistic regression as well finite mixture and mixed effects logit models are applied to further explore factors associated with accident likelihood and severity respectively. Regarding accident likelihood, the Bayesian logistic regression showed that variations in traffic significantly influence accident occurrence. On the other hand, accident severity analysis revealed a generally mixed influence of traffic variations on accident severity, although international literature states that traffic variations increase severity. Lastly, weather parameters did not find to have a direct influence on accident likelihood or severity. The study added to the current knowledge by incorporating real-time traffic and weather data from urban arterials to investigate accident occurrence and accident severity mechanisms. The identification of risk factors can lead to the development of effective traffic management strategies to reduce accident occurrence and severity of injuries in urban arterials. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd and National Safety Council. All rights reserved.

  1. Estimates of the economic and human consequences of motor vehicle accidents in Virginia during 1980.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1982-01-01

    The purpose of this report is to describe the cost of motor vehicle accidents in two ways first, by identifying the cost components and quantifying them, and second by showing the severity of such accidents in terms of human suffering. Although many ...

  2. 10 CFR 72.24 - Contents of application: Technical information.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... components provided for the prevention of accidents and the mitigation of the consequences of accidents... radiation exposures within the limits given in part 20 of this chapter, and for meeting the objective of... outside the controlled area from accidents or natural phenomena events that result in the release of...

  3. 10 CFR 72.24 - Contents of application: Technical information.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... components provided for the prevention of accidents and the mitigation of the consequences of accidents... radiation exposures within the limits given in part 20 of this chapter, and for meeting the objective of... outside the controlled area from accidents or natural phenomena events that result in the release of...

  4. 10 CFR 72.24 - Contents of application: Technical information.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... components provided for the prevention of accidents and the mitigation of the consequences of accidents... radiation exposures within the limits given in part 20 of this chapter, and for meeting the objective of... outside the controlled area from accidents or natural phenomena events that result in the release of...

  5. Low-Probability High-Consequence (LPHC) Failure Events in Geologic Carbon Sequestration Pipelines and Wells: Framework for LPHC Risk Assessment Incorporating Spatial Variability of Risk

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Oldenburg, Curtis M.; Budnitz, Robert J.

    If Carbon dioxide Capture and Storage (CCS) is to be effective in mitigating climate change, it will need to be carried out on a very large scale. This will involve many thousands of miles of dedicated high-pressure pipelines in order to transport many millions of tonnes of CO 2 annually, with the CO 2 delivered to many thousands of wells that will inject the CO 2 underground. The new CCS infrastructure could rival in size the current U.S. upstream natural gas pipeline and well infrastructure. This new infrastructure entails hazards for life, health, animals, the environment, and natural resources. Pipelinesmore » are known to rupture due to corrosion, from external forces such as impacts by vehicles or digging equipment, by defects in construction, or from the failure of valves and seals. Similarly, wells are vulnerable to catastrophic failure due to corrosion, cement degradation, or operational mistakes. While most accidents involving pipelines and wells will be minor, there is the inevitable possibility of accidents with very high consequences, especially to public health. The most important consequence of concern is CO 2 release to the environment in concentrations sufficient to cause death by asphyxiation to nearby populations. Such accidents are thought to be very unlikely, but of course they cannot be excluded, even if major engineering effort is devoted (as it will be) to keeping their probability low and their consequences minimized. This project has developed a methodology for analyzing the risks of these rare but high-consequence accidents, using a step-by-step probabilistic methodology. A key difference between risks for pipelines and wells is that the former are spatially distributed along the pipe whereas the latter are confined to the vicinity of the well. Otherwise, the methodology we develop for risk assessment of pipeline and well failures is similar and provides an analysis both of the annual probabilities of accident sequences of concern and of their consequences, and crucially the methodology provides insights into what measures might be taken to mitigate those accident sequences identified as of concern. Mitigating strategies could address reducing the likelihood of an accident sequence of concern, or reducing the consequences, or some combination. The methodology elucidates both local and integrated risks along the pipeline or at the well providing information useful to decision makers at various levels including local (e.g., property owners and town councils), regional (e.g., county and state representatives), and national levels (federal regulators and corporate proponents).« less

  6. [Work accidents and automatic circuit reclosers in the electricity sector: beyond the immediate causes].

    PubMed

    Silva, Alessandro Jose Nunes da; Almeida, Ildeberto Muniz de; Vilela, Rodolfo Andrade de Gouveia; Mendes, Renata Wey Berti; Hurtado, Sandra Lorena Beltran

    2018-05-10

    The Brazilian electricity sector has recorded high work-related mortality rates that have been associated with outsourcing, used to cut costs. In order to decrease the power outage time for consumers, the industry adopted the automatic circuit recloser as the technical solution. The device has hazardous implications for maintenance workers. The aim of this study was to analyze the origins and consequences of work accidents in power systems with automatic circuit recloser, using the Accident Analysis and Prevention (AAP) model. The AAP model was used to investigate two work accidents, aimed to explore the events' organizational origins. Case 1 - when changing a deenergized secondary line, a worker received a shock from the energized primary cable (13.8kV). The system reclosed three times, causing severe injury to the worker (amputation of a lower limb). Case 2 - a fatal work accident occurred during installation of a new crosshead on a partially insulated energized line. The tip of a metal cross arm section strap touched the energized secondary line and electrocuted the maintenance operator. The circuit breaker component of the automatic circuit recloser failed. The analyses revealed how business management logic can participate in the root causes of work accidents through failures in maintenance management, outsourced workforce management, and especially safety management in systems with reclosers. Decisions to adopt automation to guarantee power distribution should not overlook the risks to workers in overhead power lines or fail to acknowledge the importance of ensuring safe conditions.

  7. Wheelchair-related accidents: relationship with wheelchair-using behavior in active community wheelchair users.

    PubMed

    Chen, Wan-Yin; Jang, Yuh; Wang, Jung-Der; Huang, Wen-Ni; Chang, Chan-Chia; Mao, Hui-Fen; Wang, Yen-Ho

    2011-06-01

    To report the prevalence, mechanisms, self-perceived causes, consequences, and wheelchair-using behaviors associated with wheelchair-related accidents. A case-control study. Community. A sample of experienced, community-dwelling, active manual and powered wheelchair users (N=95) recruited from a hospital assistive technology service center. Not applicable. Wheelchair-using behaviors, wheelchair-related accidents over a 3-year period, and the mechanisms and consequences of the accidents. Among the 95 participants, 52 (54.7%) reported at least 1 accident and 16 (16.8%) reported 2 or more accidents during the 3 years prior to the interview. A total of 74 accidents, were categorized into tips and falls (87.8%), accidental contact (6.8%), and dangerous operations (5.4%). A logistic regression found individuals who failed to maintain their wheelchairs regularly (odds ratio [OR]=11.28; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.62-48.61) and used a wheelchair not prescribed by professionals (OR=4.31; 95% CI, 1.10-16.82) had significantly greater risks of accidents. In addition to the risk factor, lack of regular wheelchair maintenance, the Poisson regression corroborated the other risk factor, seat belts not used (incident rate ratio=2.14; 95% CI, 1.08-4.14), for wheelchair-related accidents. Wheelchair-related accidents are closely related to their wheelchair-using behaviors. Services including professional evaluation, repair, maintenance, and an educational program on proper wheelchair use may decrease the risks of wheelchair accidents. Copyright © 2011 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Thermal-hydraulic analysis of N Reactor graphite and shield cooling system performance

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Low, J.O.; Schmitt, B.E.

    1988-02-01

    A series of bounding (worst-case) calculations were performed using a detailed hydrodynamic RELAP5 model of the N Reactor graphite and shield cooling system (GSCS). These calculations were specifically aimed to answer issues raised by the Westinghouse Independent Safety Review (WISR) committee. These questions address the operability of the GSCS during a worst-case degraded-core accident that requires the GDCS to mitigate the consequences of the accident. An accident scenario previously developed was designed as the hydrogen-mitigation design-basis accident (HMDBA). Previous HMDBA heat transfer analysis,, using the TRUMP-BD code, was used to define the thermal boundary conditions that the GSDS may bemore » exposed to. These TRUMP/HMDBA analysis results were used to define the bounding operating conditions of the GSCS during the course of an HMDBA transient. Nominal and degraded GSCS scenarios were investigated using RELAP5 within or at the bounds of the HMDBA transient. 10 refs., 42 figs., 10 tabs.« less

  9. A Flexible Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling Technique for Risk Analysis of Major Accidents.

    PubMed

    Yu, Hongyang; Khan, Faisal; Veitch, Brian

    2017-09-01

    Safety analysis of rare events with potentially catastrophic consequences is challenged by data scarcity and uncertainty. Traditional causation-based approaches, such as fault tree and event tree (used to model rare event), suffer from a number of weaknesses. These include the static structure of the event causation, lack of event occurrence data, and need for reliable prior information. In this study, a new hierarchical Bayesian modeling based technique is proposed to overcome these drawbacks. The proposed technique can be used as a flexible technique for risk analysis of major accidents. It enables both forward and backward analysis in quantitative reasoning and the treatment of interdependence among the model parameters. Source-to-source variability in data sources is also taken into account through a robust probabilistic safety analysis. The applicability of the proposed technique has been demonstrated through a case study in marine and offshore industry. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  10. Using probabilistic criteria in an assessment of the potential radiological consequences of the decommissioning of a nuclear research reactor

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Wallner, Christian; Rall, Anna-Maria; Thummerer, Severin

    In order to assess the risk of radiological consequences of incidents and accidents in nuclear facilities it is important to contemplate their frequency of occurrence. It has to be shown that incidents and accidents occur sufficiently seldom according to their radiological consequences i. e. the occurrence frequency of radiological doses has to be limited. This is even demanded by the German radiation protection ordinance (StrlSchV), which says that in nuclear facilities other than nuclear power plants (NPP) in operation and for decommissioning, the occurrence frequency of incidents and accidents shall be contemplated in order to prove the design of safetymore » measures and safety installations. Based on the ideas of the ICRP64, we developed a risk based assessment concept for nuclear facilities, which fulfils the requirements of the German regulations concerning dose limits in normal operation and design basis accidents. The general use of the concept is dedicated to nuclear facilities other than nuclear power plants (NPP) in operation and for decommissioning, where the regulation of risk assessment is less sophisticated. The concept specifies occurrence frequency limits for radiation exposure dose ranges, i. e. the occurrence frequency of incidents and accidents has to be limited according to their radiological effects. To apply this concept, scenarios of incidents and accidents are grouped in exposition classes according to their resulting potential effective dose to members of the general public. The occurrence frequencies of the incidents and accidents are summarized in each exposition class whereas the sum must not exceed the frequency limits mentioned above. In the following we introduce the application of this concept in the assessment of the potential radiological consequences of the decommissioning of a nuclear research reactor. We carried out this assessment for the licensing process of the decommissioning on behalf of German authorities. (authors)« less

  11. 2007 International Brain Mapping and Intraoperative Surgical Planning Society’s (IBMISPS) Annual World Congress

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2008-02-01

    and Stroke Two Long Term Consequences of Penetrating Head Injuries : Exacerbated Decline and Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder Key Note speaker: Michael L...an intuitively obvious first principle that if modern medicine hopes to repair adult brains (damaged by war injuries , automobile accidents, stroke ...Imaging Animal Models of Brain Disease Background and Animal Model Quantization of Structure Cerebral Blood Flow Mini- Strokes Cancer Future

  12. Longitudinal study of appraisal at Three Mile Island: implications for life event research.

    PubMed

    Goldsteen, R; Schorr, J K; Goldsteen, K S

    1989-01-01

    This study tests a path model which indicates the occurrence of appraisal following the accident at Three Mile Island (TMI). The model posits a causal relationship between trust in TMI-related authorities, perceived danger, perceived harm to health, and psychological distress. The implications of the findings for life event research are discussed in terms of the etiological significance of meaning, event consequences, and control.

  13. Psychological Distress and Post-Traumatic Symptoms Following Occupational Accidents

    PubMed Central

    Ghisi, Marta; Novara, Caterina; Buodo, Giulia; Kimble, Matthew O.; Scozzari, Simona; Di Natale, Arianna; Sanavio, Ezio; Palomba, Daniela

    2013-01-01

    Depression and post-traumatic stress disorder frequently occur as a consequence of occupational accidents. To date, research has been primarily focused on high-risk workers, such as police officers or firefighters, and has rarely considered individuals whose occupational environment involves the risk of severe, but not necessarily life-threatening, injury. Therefore, the present study was aimed at assessing the psychological consequences of accidents occurring in several occupational settings (e.g., construction and industry). Thirty-eight victims of occupational accidents (injured workers) and 38 gender-, age-, and years of education-matched workers who never experienced a work accident (control group) were recruited. All participants underwent a semi-structured interview administered by a trained psychologist, and then were requested to fill in the questionnaires. Injured workers reported more severe anxious, post-traumatic and depressive symptoms, and poorer coping skills, as compared to controls. In the injured group low levels of resilience predicted post-traumatic symptomatology, whereas the degree of physical injury and the length of time since the accident did not play a predictive role. The results suggest that occupational accidents may result in a disabling psychopathological condition, and that a brief psychological evaluation should be included in the assessment of seriously injured workers. PMID:25379258

  14. Biomedical Lessons from the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant Accident

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1990-10-01

    Lessons From the Lt Col Doris Browne, MC Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant Accident The Chernobyl nuclear accident afforded the treating physicians a...radiation accident posited on the skin and mucous mem- A Lt Col Dori Browne, MC, is Chief, Medicaloccurred at the Chernobyl nuclear branes from the molten...Conclusion ulcers of oral mucosa, which required irradiation. He also had persistent The consequences ot the Chernobyl sterile saline irrigation and

  15. 77 FR 50534 - Biweekly Notice; Applications and Amendments to Facility Operating Licenses and Combined Licenses...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-08-21

    ...) involve a significant increase in the probability or consequences of an accident previously evaluated; or (2) create the possibility of a new or different kind of accident from any accident previously... statement of the alleged facts or expert opinion which support the contention and on which the requestor...

  16. 75 FR 30440 - Biweekly Notice: Applications and Amendments to Facility Operating Licenses Involving No...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-06-01

    ... consequences of an accident previously evaluated; or (2) create the possibility of a new or different kind of accident from any accident previously evaluated; or (3) involve a significant reduction in a margin of... alleged facts or expert opinion which support the contention and on which the requestor/ petitioner...

  17. 76 FR 67485 - Biweekly Notice; Applications and Amendments to Facility Operating Licenses Involving No...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-11-01

    ... [email protected] . Federal Rulemaking Web Site: Public comments and supporting materials related... increase in the probability or consequences of an accident previously evaluated; or (2) create the possibility of a new or different kind of accident from any accident previously evaluated; or (3) involve a...

  18. Aftereffect Calculation and Prediction of Methanol Tank Leak’s Environmental Risk Accident

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lang, Yueting; Zheng, Lina; Chen, Henan; Wang, Qiushi; Jiang, Hui; Pan, Yiwen

    2018-01-01

    With the increasing frequency of environmental risk accidents, more emphasis was placed on environmental risk assessment. In this article, the aftermath of an Environmental Risk Accident on Methanol Tank Leakage occurred on a cryogenic unit area in a certain oilfield processing plant have been mainly calculated and predicted. Major hazards were identified through the major hazards identification on dangerous chemicals, which could afterwards analyze maximum credible accident and confirm source item and the source intensity. In the end, the consequence of the accident has been calculated so that the impact on surrounding environment can be predicted after the accident.

  19. Assessment of environmental public exposure from a hypothetical nuclear accident for Unit-1 Bushehr nuclear power plant.

    PubMed

    Sohrabi, M; Ghasemi, M; Amrollahi, R; Khamooshi, C; Parsouzi, Z

    2013-05-01

    Unit-1 of the Bushehr nuclear power plant (BNPP-1) is a VVER-type reactor with 1,000-MWe power constructed near Bushehr city at the coast of the Persian Gulf, Iran. The reactor has been recently operational to near its full power. The radiological impact of nuclear power plant (NPP) accidents is of public concern, and the assessment of radiological consequences of any hypothetical nuclear accident on public exposure is vital. The hypothetical accident scenario considered in this paper is a design-basis accident, that is, a primary coolant leakage to the secondary circuit. This scenario was selected in order to compare and verify the results obtained in the present paper with those reported in the Final Safety Analysis Report (FSAR 2007) of the BNPP-1 and to develop a well-proven methodology that can be used to study other and more severe hypothetical accident scenarios for this reactor. In the present study, the version 2.01 of the PC COSYMA code was applied. In the early phase of the accidental releases, effective doses (from external and internal exposures) as well as individual and collective doses (due to the late phase of accidental releases) were evaluated. The surrounding area of the BNPP-1 within a radius of 80 km was subdivided into seven concentric rings and 16 sectors, and distribution of population and agricultural products was calculated for this grid. The results show that during the first year following the modeled hypothetical accident, the effective doses do not exceed the limit of 5 mSv, for the considered distances from the BNPP-1. The results obtained in this study are in good agreement with those in the FSAR-2007 report. The agreement obtained is in light of many inherent uncertainties and variables existing in the two modeling procedures applied and proves that the methodology applied here can also be used to model other severe hypothetical accident scenarios of the BNPP-1 such as a small and large break in the reactor coolant system as well as beyond design-basis accidents. Such scenarios are planned to be studied in the near future, for this reactor.

  20. CRAC2 model description

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Ritchie, L.T.; Alpert, D.J.; Burke, R.P.

    1984-03-01

    The CRAC2 computer code is a revised version of CRAC (Calculation of Reactor Accident Consequences) which was developed for the Reactor Safety Study. This document provides an overview of the CRAC2 code and a description of each of the models used. Significant improvements incorporated into CRAC2 include an improved weather sequence sampling technique, a new evacuation model, and new output capabilities. In addition, refinements have been made to the atmospheric transport and deposition model. Details of the modeling differences between CRAC2 and CRAC are emphasized in the model descriptions.

  1. Exploring inattention and distraction in the SafetyNet Accident Causation Database.

    PubMed

    Talbot, Rachel; Fagerlind, Helen; Morris, Andrew

    2013-11-01

    Distraction and inattention are considered to be very important and prevalent factors in the causation of road accidents. There have been many recent research studies which have attempted to understand the circumstances under which a driver becomes distracted or inattentive and how distraction/inattention can be prevented. Both factors are thought to have become more important in recent times partly due to the evolution of in-vehicle information and communication technology. This study describes a methodology that was developed to understand when factors such as distraction and inattention may have been contributors to crashes and also describes some of the consequences of distraction and inattention in terms of subsequent driver actions. The study uses data relating to distraction and inattention from the SafetyNet Accident Causation Database. This database was formulated as part of the SafetyNet project to address the lack of representative in-depth accident causation data within the European Union. Data were collected in 6 European countries using 'on-scene' and 'nearly on-scene' crash investigation methodologies. 32% of crashes recorded in the database, involved at least one driver, rider or pedestrian, who was determined to be 'Inattentive' or 'Distracted'. 212 of the drivers were assigned 'Distraction' and 140 drivers were given the code 'Inattention'. It was found that both distraction and inattention often lead to missed observations within the driving task and consequently 'Timing' or 'Direction' become critical events in the aetiology of crashes. In addition, the crash types and outcomes may differ according to the type and nature of the distraction and inattention as determined by the in-depth investigations. The development of accident coding methodology is described in this study as is its evolution into the Driver Reliability and Error Analysis Model (DREAM) version 3.0. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. FLAMMABLE GAS TECHNICAL BASIS DOCUMENT

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    KRIPPS, L.J.

    2005-02-18

    This document describes the qualitative evaluation of frequency and consequences for double shell tank (DST) and single shell tank (SST) representative flammable gas accidents and associated hazardous conditions without controls. The evaluation indicated that safety-significant SSCs and/or TSRS were required to prevent or mitigate flammable gas accidents. Discussion on the resulting control decisions is included. This technical basis document was developed to support of the Tank Farms Documented Safety Analysis (DSA) and describes the risk binning process for the flammable gas representative accidents and associated represented hazardous conditions. The purpose of the risk binning process is to determine the needmore » for safety-significant structures, systems, and components (SSC) and technical safety requirement (TSR)-level controls for a given representative accident or represented hazardous condition based on an evaluation of the event frequency and consequence.« less

  3. [Medical and biological consequences of nuclear disasters].

    PubMed

    Stalpers, Lukas J A; van Dullemen, Simon; Franken, N A P Klaas

    2012-01-01

    Medical risks of radiation exaggerated; psychological risks underestimated. The discussion about atomic energy has become topical again following the nuclear accident in Fukushima. There is some argument about the gravity of medical and biological consequences of prolonged exposure to radiation. The risk of cancer following a low dose of radiation is usually estimated by linear extrapolation of the incidence of cancer among survivors of the atomic bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945. The radiobiological linear-quadratic model (LQ-model) gives a more accurate description of observed data, is radiobiologically more plausible and is better supported by experimental and clinical data. On the basis of this model there is less risk of cancer being induced following radiation exposure. The gravest consequence of Chernobyl and Fukushima is not the medical and biological damage, but the psychological and economical impact on rescue workers and former inhabitants.

  4. Flammable gas technical basis document

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    CARRO, C.A.

    2003-03-22

    This document qualitatively evaluates the frequency and consequences of DST and SST representative flammable gas accidents and associated represented hazardous conditions without controls. Based on the evaluation, it was determined that safety-significant SSCs and/or TSRs were required to prevent or mitigate flammable gas accidents. Controls were selected and the accidents re-evaluated taking credit for the controls.

  5. 78 FR 60321 - Biweekly Notice; Applications and Amendments to Facility Operating Licenses and Combined Licenses...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-10-01

    ... sample selection. A steam generator tube rupture (SGTR) event is one of the design basis accidents that... in the design basis accident analysis. The proposed change will not cause the consequences of a SGTR... changes to the plant design basis or postulated accidents resulting from potential tube degradation. The...

  6. DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    PIEPHO, M.G.

    Four bounding accidents postulated for the K West Basin integrated water treatment system are evaluated against applicable risk evaluation guidelines. The accidents are a spray leak during fuel retrieval, spray leak during backflushing a hydrogen explosion, and a fire breaching filter vessel and enclosure. Event trees and accident probabilities are estimated. In all cases, the unmitigated dose consequences are below the risk evaluation guidelines.

  7. 78 FR 77729 - Biweekly Notice: Applications and Amendments to Facility Operating Licenses and Combined Licenses...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-12-24

    ... amendment would not (1) involve a significant increase in the probability or consequences of an accident previously evaluated; or (2) create the possibility of a new or different kind of accident from any accident... alleged facts or expert opinion which support the contention and on which the requestor/ petitioner...

  8. 78 FR 15747 - Applications and Amendments to Facility Operating Licenses and Combined Licenses Involving...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-03-12

    ... consequences of an accident previously evaluated; or (2) create the possibility of a new or different kind of accident from any accident previously evaluated; or (3) involve a significant reduction in a margin of... contention and a concise statement of the alleged facts or expert opinion which support the contention and on...

  9. 75 FR 26287 - Notice; Applications and Amendments to Facility Operating Licenses Involving Proposed No...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-05-11

    ... amendment would not (1) involve a significant increase in the probability or consequences of an accident previously evaluated; or (2) create the possibility of a new or different kind of accident from any accident... contention and a concise statement of the alleged facts or expert opinion which support the contention and on...

  10. 77 FR 51071 - Indiana Michigan Power Company, Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant, Unit 2, Environmental Assessment...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-08-23

    ... adversely affect plant safety, and would have no adverse effect on the probability of any accident. For the accidents that involve damage or melting of the fuel in the reactor core, fuel rod integrity has been shown to be unaffected by extended burnup under consideration; therefore, the consequences of an accident...

  11. Impacts on the marine environment in the case of a hypothetical accident involving the recovery of the dumped Russian submarine K-27, based on dispersion of 137Cs.

    PubMed

    Hosseini, A; Amundsen, I; Brown, J; Dowdall, M; Karcher, M; Kauker, F; Schnur, R

    2017-02-01

    There is increasing concern regarding the issue of dumped nuclear waste in the Arctic Seas and in particular dumped objects with Spent Nuclear Fuel (SNF). Amongst dumped objects in the Arctic, the dumped Russian submarine K-27 has received great attention as it contains two reactors with highly enriched fuel and lies at a depth of about 30 m under water. To address these concerns a health and environmental impact assessment has been undertaken. Marine dispersion of potentially released radionuclides as a consequence of different hypothetical accident scenarios was modelled using the model NAOSIM. The outputs from the dispersion modelling have been used as inputs to food-chain transfer and environmental dosimetry models. The annual effective doses for subsistence fishing communities of the Barents-Kara seas region do not exceed 0.6 mSv for hypothetical accidents located at Stepovogo fjord or the Barents Sea. For high rate consumers of fish in Norway, following a potential accident at the Gremikha Bay, annual effects doses would be at around 0.15 mSv. Accumulated doses (over 90 days) for various organisms and for all release scenarios considered were never in excess of 150 μGy. The levels of 137 Cs derived for marine organism in areas close to Norway were not values that would likely cause concern from a regulatory perspective although for subsistence fishing communities close to the considered accident locations, it is not inconceivable that some restrictions on fishing etc. would need to be introduced. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. General RMP Guidance - Table of Contents

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The Risk Management Programs for Chemical Accident Prevention (40 CFR Part 68) guidance is in chapters; each covering topics such as applicability of the rule, and requirements for reporting five-year accident history and offsite consequence analysis.

  13. 14 CFR 420.59 - Launch site accident investigation plan.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... consequences of a launch site accident are contained and minimized; (2) Ensure data and physical evidence are...) Description of the event; (iv) Number of injuries, if any, and general description of types of injuries...

  14. Liquid and gaseous oxygen safety review, volume 3

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lapin, A.

    1972-01-01

    Practices employed in the oxygen systems maintenance programs to minimize both accident probabilities and consequences of accidents and/or incidents are described. Appropriate sections of the operations department and industrial gas operating manuals are discussed.

  15. The Tokaimura Nuclear Accident: A Tragedy of Human Errors.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ryan, Michael E.

    2001-01-01

    Discusses nuclear power and the consequences of a nuclear accident. Covers issues ranging from chemical process safety to risk management of chemical industries to the ethical responsibilities of the chemical engineer. (Author/ASK)

  16. Road accidents caused by drivers falling asleep.

    PubMed

    Sagberg, F

    1999-11-01

    About 29600 Norwegian accident-involved drivers received a questionnaire about the last accident reported to their insurance company. About 9200 drivers (31%) returned the questionnaire. The questionnaire contained questions about sleep or fatigue as contributing factors to the accident. In addition, the drivers reported whether or not they had fallen asleep some time whilst driving. and what the consequences had been. Sleep or drowsiness was a contributing factor in 3.9% of all accidents, as reported by drivers who were at fault for the accident. This factor was strongly over-represented in night-time accidents (18.6%), in running-off-the-road accidents (8.3%), accidents after driving more than 150 km on one trip (8.1%), and personal injury accidents (7.3%). A logistic regression analysis showed that the following additional factors made significant and independent contributions to increasing the odds of sleep involvement in an accident: dry road, high speed limit, driving one's own car, not driving the car daily, high education, and few years of driving experience. More male than female drivers were involved in sleep-related accidents, but this seems largely to be explained by males driving relatively more than females on roads with high speed limits. A total of 10% of male drivers and 4% of females reported to have fallen asleep while driving during the last 12 months. A total of 4% of these events resulted in an accident. The most frequent consequence of falling asleep--amounting to more than 40% of the reported incidents--was crossing of the right edge-line before awaking, whereas crossing of the centreline was reported by 16%. Drivers' lack of awareness of important precursors of falling asleep--like highway hypnosis, driving without awareness, and similar phenomena--as well as a reluctance to discontinue driving despite feeling tired are pointed out as likely contributors to sleep-related accidents. More knowledge about the drivers' experiences immediately preceding such accidents may give a better background for implementing effective driver warning systems and other countermeasures.

  17. Fuzzy-probabilistic model for risk assessment of radioactive material railway transportation.

    PubMed

    Avramenko, M; Bolyatko, V; Kosterev, V

    2005-01-01

    Transportation of radioactive materials is obviously accompanied by a certain risk. A model for risk assessment of emergency situations and terrorist attacks may be useful for choosing possible routes and for comparing the various defence strategies. In particular, risk assessment is crucial for safe transportation of excess weapons-grade plutonium arising from the removal of plutonium from military employment. A fuzzy-probabilistic model for risk assessment of railway transportation has been developed taking into account the different natures of risk-affecting parameters (probabilistic and not probabilistic but fuzzy). Fuzzy set theory methods as well as standard methods of probability theory have been used for quantitative risk assessment. Information-preserving transformations are applied to realise the correct aggregation of probabilistic and fuzzy parameters. Estimations have also been made of the inhalation doses resulting from possible accidents during plutonium transportation. The obtained data show the scale of possible consequences that may arise from plutonium transportation accidents.

  18. The Chernobyl accident and its consequences.

    PubMed

    Saenko, V; Ivanov, V; Tsyb, A; Bogdanova, T; Tronko, M; Demidchik, Yu; Yamashita, S

    2011-05-01

    The accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant was the worst industrial accident of the last century that involved radiation. The unprecedented release of multiple different radioisotopes led to radioactive contamination of large areas surrounding the accident site. The exposure of the residents of these areas was varied and therefore the consequences for health and radioecology could not be reliably estimated quickly. Even though some studies have now been ongoing for 25 years and have provided a better understanding of the situation, these are yet neither complete nor comprehensive enough to determine the long-term risk. A true assessment can only be provided after following the observed population for their natural lifespan. Here we review the technical aspects of the accident and provide relevant information on radioactive releases that resulted in exposure of this large population to radiation. A number of different groups of people were exposed to radiation: workers involved in the initial clean-up response, and members of the general population who were either evacuated from the settlements in the Chernobyl nuclear power plant vicinity shortly after the accident, or continued to live in the affected territories of Belarus, Russia and Ukraine. Through domestic efforts and extensive international co-operation, essential information on radiation dose and health status for this population has been collected. This has permitted the identification of high-risk groups and the use of more specialised means of collecting information, diagnosis, treatment and follow-up. Because radiation-associated thyroid cancer is one of the major health consequences of the Chernobyl accident, a particular emphasis is placed on this malignancy. The initial epidemiological studies are reviewed, as are the most significant studies and/or aid programmes in the three affected countries. Copyright © 2011 The Royal College of Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. An novel identification method of the environmental risk sources for surface water pollution accidents in chemical industrial parks.

    PubMed

    Peng, Jianfeng; Song, Yonghui; Yuan, Peng; Xiao, Shuhu; Han, Lu

    2013-07-01

    The chemical industry is a major source of various pollution accidents. Improving the management level of risk sources for pollution accidents has become an urgent demand for most industrialized countries. In pollution accidents, the released chemicals harm the receptors to some extent depending on their sensitivity or susceptibility. Therefore, identifying the potential risk sources from such a large number of chemical enterprises has become pressingly urgent. Based on the simulation of the whole accident process, a novel and expandable identification method for risk sources causing water pollution accidents is presented. The newly developed approach, by analyzing and stimulating the whole process of a pollution accident between sources and receptors, can be applied to identify risk sources, especially on the nationwide scale. Three major types of losses, such as social, economic and ecological losses, were normalized, analyzed and used for overall consequence modeling. A specific case study area, located in a chemical industry park (CIP) along the Yangtze River in Jiangsu Province, China, was selected to test the potential of the identification method. The results showed that there were four risk sources for pollution accidents in this CIP. Aniline leakage in the HS Chemical Plant would lead to the most serious impact on the surrounding water environment. This potential accident would severely damage the ecosystem up to 3.8 km downstream of Yangtze River, and lead to pollution over a distance stretching to 73.7 km downstream. The proposed method is easily extended to the nationwide identification of potential risk sources.

  20. 40 CFR 68.22 - Offsite consequence analysis parameters.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 15 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Offsite consequence analysis... PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) CHEMICAL ACCIDENT PREVENTION PROVISIONS Hazard Assessment § 68.22 Offsite consequence analysis parameters. (a) Endpoints. For analyses of offsite consequences, the following endpoints shall be...

  1. The importance of early investigation and publishing in an emergent health and environment crisis.

    PubMed

    Murase, Kaori

    2016-10-01

    To minimize the damage resulting from a long-term environmental disaster such as the 2011 Fukushima nuclear accident in Japan, early disclosure of research data by scientists and prompt decision making by government authorities are required in place of careful, time-consuming research and deliberation about the consequences and cause of the accident. A Bayesian approach with flexible statistical modeling helps scientists and encourages government authorities to make decisions based on environmental data available in the early stages of a disaster. It is evident from Fukushima and similar accidents that classical research methods involving statistical methodologies that require rigorous experimental design and complex data sets are too cumbersome and delay important actions that may be critical in the early stages of an environmental disaster. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2016;12:680-682. © 2016 SETAC. © 2016 SETAC.

  2. Radiation monitoring systems as a tool for assessment of accidental releases at the Chernobyl and Fukushima NPPs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shershakov, Vjacheslav; Bulgakov, Vladimir

    2013-04-01

    The experience gained during mitigation of the consequences of the accidents at the Chernobyl and Fukushima NPPs has shown that what makes different the decision-making in case of nuclear accidents is that the greatest benefit from decision-making can be achieved in the early phase of an accident. Support to such process can be provided only by a real-time decision-making support system. In case of a nuclear accident the analysis of the situation and decision-making is not feasible without an operational radiation monitoring system, international data exchange and automated data processing, and the use of computerized decision-making support systems. With this in mind, in the framework of different international programs on the Chernobyl-related issues numerous projects were undertaken to study and develop a set of methods, algorithms and programs providing effective support to emergency response decision-making, starting from accident occurrence to decision-making regarding countermeasures to mitigate effects of radioactive contamination of the environment. The presentation focuses results of the analysis of radiation monitoring data and, on this basis, refining or, for many short-lived radionuclides, reconstructing the source term, modeling dispersion of radioactivity in the environment and assessing its impacts. The obtained results allowed adding and refining the existing estimates and in some cases reconstructing doses for the public on the territories contaminated as a result of the Chernobyl accident. The activities were implemented in two stages. In the first stage, several scenarios for dispersion of Chernobyl-related radioactivity were developed. For each scenario cesium-137 dispersion was estimated and these estimates were compared with measurement data. In the second stage, the scenario which showed the best agreement of calculations and measurements was used for modeling the dispersion of iodine-131and other short-lived radionuclides. The described approach was used for assessing the consequences at the Fukushima NPP. These results are also provided in the presentation. References 1. Kelly G.N., Ehrhardt J., Shershakov V.M.. Decision Support for Off-Site Emergency Preparedness in Europe. Radiation Protection Dosimetry, Vol. 64 Nos. 1-2, 1996, pp. 129-142. 2. Ehrhardt J., Shershakov V.M. Real-time on-line decision support systems (RODOS) for off-site emergency management following a nuclear accident. EUR 16533, 1996 3. Kelly G.N., Shershakov V.M. (Editors). Environmental contamination, radiation doses and health consequences after the ?hernobyl accident. Radiation Protection Dosimetry. Special Commemorative Issue.Vol. 64, 1996 4. Shershakov V.M. Computer information technology for support of radiation monitoring problems. OECD Proceedings of an International Workshop «Nuclear Emergency Data Management», Zurich, Switzerland, 1998, pp. 377-388 5. Pitkevich V.A., Duba V.V., Ivanov V.K., Tsyb A.F., Shershakov V.M., Golubenkov A.V., Borodin R.V., V.A., Kosykh V.S. Reconstruction of External Dose to the Inhabitants Living in the Contaminated Territory of Russia by the Results of the Accident at the Chernobyl NPP. Health Phys., Vol. 30, No. 1, pp. 54-68, 1995. 6. Shershakov V., Fesenko S., Kryshev I., Semioshkina T. Decision-Aiding Tools for Remediation Strategies. In: Radioactivity in the Environment, Volume 14, Remediation of Contaminated Environments, 2009, pp 41- 120, Elsevier Ltd.

  3. Thirty years after the Chernobyl accident: What lessons have we learnt?

    PubMed

    Beresford, N A; Fesenko, S; Konoplev, A; Skuterud, L; Smith, J T; Voigt, G

    2016-06-01

    April 2016 sees the 30(th) anniversary of the accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant. As a consequence of the accident populations were relocated in Belarus, Russia and Ukraine and remedial measures were put in place to reduce the entry of contaminants (primarily (134+137)Cs) into the human food chain in a number of countries throughout Europe. Remedial measures are still today in place in a number of countries, and areas of the former Soviet Union remain abandoned. The Chernobyl accident led to a large resurgence in radioecological studies both to aid remediation and to be able to make future predictions on the post-accident situation, but, also in recognition that more knowledge was required to cope with future accidents. In this paper we discuss, what in the authors' opinions, were the advances made in radioecology as a consequence of the Chernobyl accident. The areas we identified as being significantly advanced following Chernobyl were: the importance of semi-natural ecosystems in human dose formation; the characterisation and environmental behaviour of 'hot particles'; the development and application of countermeasures; the "fixation" and long term bioavailability of radiocaesium and; the effects of radiation on plants and animals. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  4. Modeling an unmitigated thermal quench event in a large field magnet in a DEMO reactor

    DOE PAGES

    Merrill, Brad J.

    2015-03-25

    The superconducting magnet systems of future fusion reactors, such as a Demonstration Power Plant (DEMO), will produce magnetic field energies in the 10 s of GJ range. The release of this energy during a fault condition could produce arcs that can damage the magnets of these systems. The public safety consequences of such events must be explored for a DEMO reactor because the magnets are located near the DEMO's primary radioactive confinement barrier, the reactor's vacuum vessel (VV). Great care will be taken in the design of DEMO's magnet systems to detect and provide a rapid field energy dump tomore » avoid any accidents conditions. During an event when a fault condition proceeds undetected, the potential of producing melting of the magnet exists. If molten material from the magnet impinges on the walls of the VV, these walls could fail, resulting in a pathway for release of radioactive material from the VV. A model is under development at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) called MAGARC to investigate the consequences of this accident in a large toroidal field (TF) coil. Recent improvements to this model are described in this paper, along with predictions for a DEMO relevant event in a toroidal field magnet.« less

  5. Flammable Gas Technical Basis Document

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    CARRO, C.A.

    2003-07-30

    This document qualitatively evaluates the frequency and consequences of DST and SST representative flammable gas accidents and associated represented hazardous conditions without controls. Based on the evaluation, it was determined that safety-significant SSCs and/or TSRs were required to prevent or mitigate flammable gas accidents. Controls were selected and the accidents re-evaluated taking credit for the controls. Revision 1 incorporates comments received from ORP.

  6. After Fukushima: managing the consequences of a radiological release.

    PubMed

    Fitzgerald, Joe; Wollner, Samuel B; Adalja, Amesh A; Morhard, Ryan; Cicero, Anita; Inglesby, Thomas V

    2012-06-01

    Even amidst the devastation following the earthquake and tsunami in Japan that killed more than 20,000 people, it was the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant that led the country's prime minister, Naoto Kan, to fear for "the very existence of the Japanese nation." While accidents that result in mass radiological releases have been rare throughout the operating histories of existing nuclear power plants, the growing number of plants worldwide increases the likelihood that such releases will occur again in the future. Nuclear power is an important source of energy in the U.S. and will be for the foreseeable future. Accidents far smaller in scale than the one in Fukushima could have major societal consequences. Given the extensive, ongoing Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and industry assessment of nuclear power plant safety and preparedness issues, the Center for Biosecurity of UPMC focused on offsite policies and plans intended to reduce radiation exposure to the public in the aftermath of an accident. This report provides an assessment of Japan's efforts at nuclear consequence management; identifies concerns with current U.S. policies and practices for "outside the fence" management of such an event in the U.S.; and makes recommendations for steps that can be taken to strengthen U.S. government, industry, and community response to large-scale accidents at nuclear power plants.

  7. Risk Assessment for Emergency Planning Related to Nuclear Weapons Accidents

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1985-09-25

    accidents is higher than many of the other accidents, several reviewers thought it appropriate to evaluate these accidents in more detail. In particular, it...consequences is presented in Table 2-5. The plutonium releases in the 1F-3F gram range are due to plutonium burning in Type A weapons, while the higher ...explosion given a tanker casualty varies from 0.05 (in harbor) to 0.16 (at pier) to 0.19 (at sea). Although these numbers are somewhat higher than the

  8. Domino effect in chemical accidents: main features and accident sequences.

    PubMed

    Darbra, R M; Palacios, Adriana; Casal, Joaquim

    2010-11-15

    The main features of domino accidents in process/storage plants and in the transportation of hazardous materials were studied through an analysis of 225 accidents involving this effect. Data on these accidents, which occurred after 1961, were taken from several sources. Aspects analyzed included the accident scenario, the type of accident, the materials involved, the causes and consequences and the most common accident sequences. The analysis showed that the most frequent causes are external events (31%) and mechanical failure (29%). Storage areas (35%) and process plants (28%) are by far the most common settings for domino accidents. Eighty-nine per cent of the accidents involved flammable materials, the most frequent of which was LPG. The domino effect sequences were analyzed using relative probability event trees. The most frequent sequences were explosion→fire (27.6%), fire→explosion (27.5%) and fire→fire (17.8%). Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Mitigating the consequences of accidents

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2005-08-01

    If an accident occurs, effective strategies must be available to minimize the effects in terms of loss of life, injury, and property damage. The Volpe Center's work in this area is reviewed in this report. It ranges from occupant protection strategie...

  10. Road casualties in work-related and private contexts: Occupational medical impact: Results from the ESPARR cohort.

    PubMed

    Fort, E; Pélissier, C; Fanjas, A; Charnay, P; Charbotel, B; Bergeret, A; Fontana, L; Hours, M

    2018-05-22

    Road accidents may impact victims' physical and/or mental health and socio-occupational life, notably including return to work. To assess whether the occupational medical consequences sustained by subjects injured in road accidents occurring in a work-related context differ from those associated with private accidents. 778 adults who were in work or occupational training at the time of their accident were included. Two groups were distinguished: 354 (45.5%) injured in road accidents occurring in a work-related context (commuting or on duty) and 424 (54.5%) injured in a private accident. The groups were compared on medical and occupational factors assessed on prospective follow-up at 6 months and 1 and 3 years. Multivariate analysis explored for factors associated at 6 months and 1 year with sick leave following the accident and duration of sick leave. There were no significant differences between groups for demographic data apart from a slightly higher injury severity in private accidents (32.5% of private accidents with MAIS3+(Maximum Abbreviated Injury Scale greater or equal to 3) vs. 23.7% for work-related accidents, p = 0.007). Victims of work-related accidents were more often on sick leave (OR = 1.8; 95% CI, 1.1-2.9). Although the length of sick leave is higher for work-related accidents that for private accidents, multivariate analysis showed that the injury severity and the post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) are significant factors to explain the time to return to work. There were no significant differences according to occupational impact during follow-up, notably including sick-leave duration, number of victims returning to work within 3 years and number of victims out of work due to incapacity. In the ESPARR (follow-up study of a road-accident population in the Rhône administrative county: Etude de Suivi d'une Population d'Accidentés de la Route dans le Rhône) cohort, the fact that a road accident occurred in a work-related context did not affect the occupational consequences.

  11. Patterns and consequences of inadequate sleep in college students: substance use and motor vehicle accidents.

    PubMed

    Taylor, Daniel J; Bramoweth, Adam D

    2010-06-01

    We examined college sleep patterns and consequences using a cross-sectional design. We found that students get insufficient sleep and frequently use medication and alcohol as sleep aids, use stimulants as alertness aids, and fall asleep at the wheel, or have motor vehicle accidents due to sleepiness. Future studies should focus on effective interventions for sleep in college students. Copyright 2010 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. 40 CFR 68.165 - Offsite consequence analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 15 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Offsite consequence analysis. 68.165 Section 68.165 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) CHEMICAL ACCIDENT PREVENTION PROVISIONS Risk Management Plan § 68.165 Offsite consequence...

  13. 40 CFR 68.165 - Offsite consequence analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 15 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Offsite consequence analysis. 68.165 Section 68.165 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) CHEMICAL ACCIDENT PREVENTION PROVISIONS Risk Management Plan § 68.165 Offsite consequence...

  14. 40 CFR 68.165 - Offsite consequence analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... (CONTINUED) CHEMICAL ACCIDENT PREVENTION PROVISIONS Risk Management Plan § 68.165 Offsite consequence... released in pounds; (7) Release rate; (8) Release duration; (9) Wind speed and atmospheric stability class...

  15. 40 CFR 68.165 - Offsite consequence analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... (CONTINUED) CHEMICAL ACCIDENT PREVENTION PROVISIONS Risk Management Plan § 68.165 Offsite consequence... released in pounds; (7) Release rate; (8) Release duration; (9) Wind speed and atmospheric stability class...

  16. 40 CFR 68.165 - Offsite consequence analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... (CONTINUED) CHEMICAL ACCIDENT PREVENTION PROVISIONS Risk Management Plan § 68.165 Offsite consequence... released in pounds; (7) Release rate; (8) Release duration; (9) Wind speed and atmospheric stability class...

  17. Denver UASI All-Hazards Regional Recovery Framework. Version 1.1

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2012-10-31

    twenty years later: http://www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/2008/goiania.html IAEA Environmental Consequences of the Chernobyl Accident and Their...findings and recommendations of the Chernobyl Forum concerning the environmental effects of the Chernobyl accident. Recovery Criteria and Guidelines

  18. [Analisys of work-related accidents and incidents in an oil refinery in Rio de Janeiro].

    PubMed

    de Souza, Carlos Augusto Vaz; de Freitas, Carlos Machado

    2003-01-01

    Accidents in the chemical industry can have serious consequences for workers, communities, and the environment and are thus highly relevant to public health. This article is the result of an occupational surveillance project involving several public institutions. We analyze 800 work-related accidents that resulted in injuries, environmental damage, or loss of production in 1997 in an oil refinery located in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The methodology was based on managerial and organizational approaches to accident investigation, with the European Union reporting system as the reference. The results highlight various limitations in the process of reporting and investigating accidents, as well as a certain hierarchy of accidents, with more attention given to accidents involving loss of production and less to those resulting in injuries, particularly among outsourced workers.

  19. DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Ritchie, L.T.; Johnson, J.D.; Blond, R.M.

    The CRAC2 computer code is a revision of the Calculation of Reactor Accident Consequences computer code, CRAC, developed for the Reactor Safety Study. The CRAC2 computer code incorporates significant modeling improvements in the areas of weather sequence sampling and emergency response, and refinements to the plume rise, atmospheric dispersion, and wet deposition models. New output capabilities have also been added. This guide is to facilitate the informed and intelligent use of CRAC2. It includes descriptions of the input data, the output results, the file structures, control information, and five sample problems.

  20. Context-aware system for pre-triggering irreversible vehicle safety actuators.

    PubMed

    Böhmländer, Dennis; Dirndorfer, Tobias; Al-Bayatti, Ali H; Brandmeier, Thomas

    2017-06-01

    New vehicle safety systems have led to a steady improvement of road safety and a reduction in the risk of suffering a major injury in vehicle accidents. A huge leap forward in the development of new vehicle safety systems are actuators that have to be activated irreversibly shortly before a collision in order to mitigate accident consequences. The triggering decision has to be based on measurements of exteroceptive sensors currently used in driver assistance systems. This paper focuses on developing a novel context-aware system designed to detect potential collisions and to trigger safety actuators even before an accident occurs. In this context, the analysis examines the information that can be collected from exteroceptive sensors (pre-crash data) to predict a certain collision and its severity to decide whether a triggering is entitled or not. A five-layer context-aware architecture is presented, that is able to collect contextual information about the vehicle environment and the actual driving state using different sensors, to perform reasoning about potential collisions, and to trigger safety functions upon that information. Accident analysis is used in a data model to represent uncertain knowledge and to perform reasoning. A simulation concept based on real accident data is introduced to evaluate the presented system concept. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. [Medical protection during radiation accidents: some results and lessons of the Chernobyl accident].

    PubMed

    Legeza, V I; Grebeniuk, A N; Zatsepin, V V

    2011-01-01

    Actions of medical radiation protection of liquidators of consequences of on Chernobyl atomic power station accident are analysed. It is shown, that during the early period of the accident medical protection of liquidators was provided by administration of radioprotectors, means of prophylaxis: of radioactive iodine incorporation and agent for preventing psychological and emotional stress. When carrying out decontamination and regenerative works, preparations which action is caused by increase of nonspecific resistance of an organism were applied. The lessons taken from the results of the Chernobyl accident, have allowed one to improve the system of medical protection and to introduce in practice new highly effective radioprotective agents.

  2. [Accidents at work and occupational diseases trend in agriculture insurance management. The contribution of INAIL data's for the knowledge of a worrying phenomenon].

    PubMed

    Calandriello, Luigi; Goggiamani, Angela; Ienzi, Emanuela; Naldini, Silvia; Orsini, Dario

    2013-01-01

    The author's describe accidents at work and occupational diseases outcome's measure in Agricolture insurance management acquired through statistical approach based on data processing provided by INAIL Bank data. Accident's incidence in Agricolture is compared to main insurance managements, using frequency index of accidents appearance selected on line of work and type of consequence. Concerning occupational diseases the authors describes the complaints and compensation with the comparison referring the analysis to statistical general data. The data define a worrying phenomenon.

  3. [Genetic effects in the liquidators of consequences of Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant accident].

    PubMed

    Liaginskaia, A M; Tukov, A R; Osipov, V A; Prokhorova, O N

    2007-01-01

    The purpose of the present research was the estimation of probable genetic consequences at the liquidators of the consequences of Chernobyl accident in 1986-1987. The research is made on two groups of the liquidators. The first group included the liquidators taking place on the account in the branch register and working now at the enterprises of a nuclear industry. The second group included 902 liquidators of consequences of Chernobyl accident in 1986 constantly living in the Ryazan area and which are taking place on permanent observation the account in regional hospital. For an estimation of probable genetic effects analyzed the data on frequency and outcomes pregnancy of the wives of the liquidators, on condition and on diseases of newborn, on switching intrauterine development defects (IDD). The analysis carried out depending on dozes of an irradiation: up to 5 cGy; 5-10 cGy and 10-25 cGy. Received materials testify, that at the liquidators, at a doze of an external irradiation 10-25 cGy, the determined effects--period long sterility, kept at a part them till 3 years come to light. The set of the received data, such as depending from the dose increase of frequency of spontaneous abortions and of inherent defects of development of newborn, the increase of frequency diseases of newborn and share newborn with low weight, allows to make a conclusion about an induction of genetic effects in sexual cells of the liquidators of consequences of Chernobyl accident at dozes of an external irradiation more than 10 cGy. Taking into account high biological efficiency of alpha-radiation (K = 20), and of beta-radiation (K = 2-4), the equivalent effective doze male gonads (testes) in 3-5 times is higher, than estimated only from external gamma-radiation.

  4. Immunogenetic Approach to Prognosis of Military Specialists’ Health Status

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2001-05-01

    of Ukraine which have been polluted with radionuclides deposited as a consequence of the Chernobyl Atomic Power Station accident. Therefore, an...tendency to the development of immunodeficiency was typical for participants who took part in the cleanup operations following the Chernobyl accident. This

  5. Assessing the safety effects of cooperative intelligent transport systems: A bowtie analysis approach.

    PubMed

    Ehlers, Ute Christine; Ryeng, Eirin Olaussen; McCormack, Edward; Khan, Faisal; Ehlers, Sören

    2017-02-01

    The safety effects of cooperative intelligent transport systems (C-ITS) are mostly unknown and associated with uncertainties, because these systems represent emerging technology. This study proposes a bowtie analysis as a conceptual framework for evaluating the safety effect of cooperative intelligent transport systems. These seek to prevent road traffic accidents or mitigate their consequences. Under the assumption of the potential occurrence of a particular single vehicle accident, three case studies demonstrate the application of the bowtie analysis approach in road traffic safety. The approach utilizes exemplary expert estimates and knowledge from literature on the probability of the occurrence of accident risk factors and of the success of safety measures. Fuzzy set theory is applied to handle uncertainty in expert knowledge. Based on this approach, a useful tool is developed to estimate the effects of safety-related cooperative intelligent transport systems in terms of the expected change in accident occurrence and consequence probability. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Accidents on hospital wards.

    PubMed Central

    Levene, S; Bonfield, G

    1991-01-01

    Eight hospitals reported 781 non-iatrogenic accidents occurring to patients and visitors under 16 years of age during an 18 month period up to October 1989. Accidents more often involved boys and children aged 3 to 5 years old. Falls from a height, slips, and striking accidents were common by day and falls by night. A total of 41% of accidents to inpatients occurred when parents were present. Only three accidents were serious. Altogether 27% involved beds and cots, and only one consequent injury was more than minor. Data collected routinely in case of medicolegal action can be presented in a form that may facilitate preventative work. Potentially remediable causes for concern include falls from beds and cots and the use of makeshift equipment. PMID:1929510

  7. Analysis on tank truck accidents involved in road hazardous materials transportation in china.

    PubMed

    Shen, Xiaoyan; Yan, Ying; Li, Xiaonan; Xie, Chenjiang; Wang, Lihua

    2014-01-01

    Due to the sheer size and capacity of the tanker and the properties of cargo transported in the tank, hazmat tanker accidents are more disastrous than other types of vehicle accidents. The aim of this study was to provide a current survey on the situation of accidents involving tankers transporting hazardous materials in China. Detailed descriptions of 708 tanker accidents associated with hazmat transportation in China from 2004 to 2011 were analyzed to identify causes, location, types, time of occurrence, hazard class for materials involved, consequences, and the corresponding probability. Hazmat tanker accidents mainly occurred in eastern (38.1%) and southwest China (12.3%). The most frequent hazmat tanker accidents involved classes 2, 3, and 8. The predominant accident types were rollover (29.10%), run-off-the-road (16.67%), and rear-end collisions (13.28%), with a high likelihood of a large spill occurring. About 55.93% of the accidents occurred on freeways and class 1 roads, with the spill percentage reaching 75.00% and the proportion of spills that occurred in the total accidents amounting to 77.82%, of which 61.72% are considered large spills. The month with the highest accident probability was July (12.29%), and most crashes occurred during the early morning (4:00-6:00 a.m.) and midday (10:00 a.m.-12:00 p.m.) hours, 19.63% versus 16.10%. Human-related errors (73.8%) and vehicle-related defects (19.6%) were the primary reasons for hazmat tanker crashes. The most common outcomes of a hazmat tanker accident was a spill without further events (55.51%), followed by a release with fire (7.77%), and release with an explosion (2.54%). The safety situation of China's hazmat tanker transportation is grim. Such accidents not only have high spill percentages and consistently large spills but they can also cause serious consequences, such as fires and explosions. Improving the training of drivers and the quality of vehicles, deploying roll stability aids, enhancing vehicle inspection and maintenance, and developing good delivery schedules may all be considered effective measures for mitigating hazmat tanker accidents, especially severe crashes.

  8. Offsite radiological consequence analysis for the bounding flammable gas accident

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    CARRO, C.A.

    2003-03-19

    The purpose of this analysis is to calculate the offsite radiological consequence of the bounding flammable gas accident. DOE-STD-3009-94, ''Preparation Guide for U.S. Department of Energy Nonreactor Nuclear Facility Documented Safety Analyses'', requires the formal quantification of a limited subset of accidents representing a complete set of bounding conditions. The results of these analyses are then evaluated to determine if they challenge the DOE-STD-3009-94, Appendix A, ''Evaluation Guideline,'' of 25 rem total effective dose equivalent in order to identify and evaluate safety class structures, systems, and components. The bounding flammable gas accident is a detonation in a single-shell tank (SST).more » A detonation versus a deflagration was selected for analysis because the faster flame speed of a detonation can potentially result in a larger release of respirable material. As will be shown, the consequences of a detonation in either an SST or a double-shell tank (DST) are approximately equal. A detonation in an SST was selected as the bounding condition because the estimated respirable release masses are the same and because the doses per unit quantity of waste inhaled are generally greater for SSTs than for DSTs. Appendix A contains a DST analysis for comparison purposes.« less

  9. [Radiobiology and the lessons of Chernobyl].

    PubMed

    Baraboĭ, V A

    1990-01-01

    The Chernobyl accident has marked the beginning of a new stage of radiobiology development and revealed scantiness of old concepts. One should (1) search for effective protectors against the long-term influence of low-level radiation and means of removal of radionuclides using criteria that differ principally from those used previously in selecting among nontoxic antioxidants, immunomodulators, and adaptogens; (2) study systematically the synergism of low doses of harmful agents and review the hygienic standardization system with due regard for the risk from their combinations; (3) consider comprehensively, on the basis of the experimental and clinical experience, the problem of "hot" particles and remote consequences of their influence on the respiratory and digestive systems; (4) study independently the problem of chronic stress as a combination of radiation effects and psycho-emotional consequences of the accident and living in the exposed areas; (5) consider it inadmissible to include in the B category the population of the districts influenced by the accident and to use the concept: "35 rads during the lifetime" in standardizing the radiation load; (6) organize a comprehensive analysis of the Chernobyl accident consequences for public health within the contaminated areas as well as for animals and plants using a single approved methodology and programme, the principle of "other equal conditions" being provided.

  10. Less than severe worst case accidents

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Sanders, G.A.

    1996-08-01

    Many systems can provide tremendous benefit if operating correctly, produce only an inconvenience if they fail to operate, but have extreme consequences if they are only partially disabled such that they operate erratically or prematurely. In order to assure safety, systems are often tested against the most severe environments and accidents that are considered possible to ensure either safe operation or safe failure. However, it is often the less severe environments which result in the ``worst case accident`` since these are the conditions in which part of the system may be exposed or rendered unpredictable prior to total system failure.more » Some examples of less severe mechanical, thermal, and electrical environments which may actually be worst case are described as cautions for others in industries with high consequence operations or products.« less

  11. Study on the Application of the Kent Index Method on the Risk Assessment of Disastrous Accidents in Subway Engineering

    PubMed Central

    Lu, Hao; Wang, Mingyang; Yang, Baohuai; Rong, Xiaoli

    2013-01-01

    With the development of subway engineering, according to uncertain factors and serious accidents involved in the construction of subways, implementing risk assessment is necessary and may bring a number of benefits for construction safety. The Kent index method extensively used in pipeline construction is improved to make risk assessment much more practical for the risk assessment of disastrous accidents in subway engineering. In the improved method, the indexes are divided into four categories, namely, basic, design, construction, and consequence indexes. In this study, a risk assessment model containing four kinds of indexes is provided. Three kinds of risk occurrence modes are listed. The probability index model which considers the relativity of the indexes is established according to the risk occurrence modes. The model provides the risk assessment process through the fault tree method and has been applied in the risk assessment of Nanjing subway's river-crossing tunnel construction. Based on the assessment results, the builders were informed of what risks should be noticed and what they should do to avoid the risks. The need for further research is discussed. Overall, this method may provide a tool for the builders, and improve the safety of the construction. PMID:23710136

  12. [Study on standards for safe and health-protective zone in firework plant].

    PubMed

    Wu, Y; Wang, Q; Shi, J; Shao, Q

    1999-03-30

    A retrospective investigation on technology and situation in the production of fireworks, the cause and hazard consequences of accidents in blossom firework enterprises was carried out. The risk factors and their origins, the potential effects on surrounding environments and residents, the manufacture processes producing special potential energy in these enterprises were summarized and assessed. In addition, the consequences of explosive fire accidents were assessed retrospectively by the principle of explosion mechanics and Hopkinson Scaling Law. The safe and health-protective zone of the blossom firework plant was suggested.

  13. An Approach for Assessing Consequences of Potential Supply Chain and Insider Contributed Cyber Attacks on Nuclear Power Plants

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Chu, Tsong-Lun; Varuttamaseni, Athi; Baek, Joo-Seok

    This paper provides an approach for developing potential attacks on I and C systems of NPPs and assessing their consequences. An important concept is that the NPPs were not designed to cope with Stuxnet-type of attacks (and any other cyber attacks). That is, the plants were only designed for design basis accidents. The safety margins and redundancies built in the design are all based on design basis accidents. They may be helpful in mitigating cyberattacks, but may not be adequate.

  14. Identifying the causes of road crashes in Europe

    PubMed Central

    Thomas, Pete; Morris, Andrew; Talbot, Rachel; Fagerlind, Helen

    2013-01-01

    This research applies a recently developed model of accident causation, developed to investigate industrial accidents, to a specially gathered sample of 997 crashes investigated in-depth in 6 countries. Based on the work of Hollnagel the model considers a collision to be a consequence of a breakdown in the interaction between road users, vehicles and the organisation of the traffic environment. 54% of road users experienced interpretation errors while 44% made observation errors and 37% planning errors. In contrast to other studies only 11% of drivers were identified as distracted and 8% inattentive. There was remarkably little variation in these errors between the main road user types. The application of the model to future in-depth crash studies offers the opportunity to identify new measures to improve safety and to mitigate the social impact of collisions. Examples given include the potential value of co-driver advisory technologies to reduce observation errors and predictive technologies to avoid conflicting interactions between road users. PMID:24406942

  15. Dynamic Blowout Risk Analysis Using Loss Functions.

    PubMed

    Abimbola, Majeed; Khan, Faisal

    2018-02-01

    Most risk analysis approaches are static; failing to capture evolving conditions. Blowout, the most feared accident during a drilling operation, is a complex and dynamic event. The traditional risk analysis methods are useful in the early design stage of drilling operation while falling short during evolving operational decision making. A new dynamic risk analysis approach is presented to capture evolving situations through dynamic probability and consequence models. The dynamic consequence models, the focus of this study, are developed in terms of loss functions. These models are subsequently integrated with the probability to estimate operational risk, providing a real-time risk analysis. The real-time evolving situation is considered dependent on the changing bottom-hole pressure as drilling progresses. The application of the methodology and models are demonstrated with a case study of an offshore drilling operation evolving to a blowout. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  16. Global risk of radioactive fallout after major nuclear reactor accidents

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lelieveld, J.; Kunkel, D.; Lawrence, M. G.

    2012-05-01

    Major reactor accidents of nuclear power plants are rare, yet the consequences are catastrophic. But what is meant by "rare"? And what can be learned from the Chernobyl and Fukushima incidents? Here we assess the cumulative, global risk of exposure to radioactivity due to atmospheric dispersion of gases and particles following severe nuclear accidents (the most severe ones on the International Nuclear Event Scale, INES 7), using particulate 137Cs and gaseous 131I as proxies for the fallout. Our results indicate that previously the occurrence of INES 7 major accidents and the risks of radioactive contamination have been underestimated. Using a global model of the atmosphere we compute that on average, in the event of a major reactor accident of any nuclear power plant worldwide, more than 90% of emitted 137Cs would be transported beyond 50 km and about 50% beyond 1000 km distance before being deposited. This corroborates that such accidents have large-scale and trans-boundary impacts. Although the emission strengths and atmospheric removal processes of 137Cs and 131I are quite different, the radioactive contamination patterns over land and the human exposure due to deposition are computed to be similar. High human exposure risks occur around reactors in densely populated regions, notably in West Europe and South Asia, where a major reactor accident can subject around 30 million people to radioactive contamination. The recent decision by Germany to phase out its nuclear reactors will reduce the national risk, though a large risk will still remain from the reactors in neighbouring countries.

  17. Social and psychological state of the Chornobyl clean up workers. Risk factors for negative changes.

    PubMed

    Buzunov, V O; Loganovsky, K N; Krasnikova, L I; Bomko, M O; Belyaev, Yu M; Yaroshenko, Zh S; Domashevska, T Ye

    2016-12-01

    It is generally recognized that the Chornobyl nuclear accident caused strong psychosocial stress affecting the entire population of Ukraine, primarily people involved in recovery operations. But what are the reasons? What is the struc ture of stressors? What are their social, medical and biological consequences, what are strategy and preventive meas ures? Issues that require special research and development. To study social and psychological state of the Chornobyl cleanup workers 1986-1987, and to determine regularities of changes and dangerous risk factors. On the basis of Polyclinic of Radiation Registry, NRCRM, we conducted sample epidemiolog ical study of social and psychological state of the Chornobyl clean up workers 1986-1987. We used method of inter viewing based on «questionnaire», specially developed for this purpose. The study was conducted in October 2013 - May 2015. The sample numbered 235 males aged 18-50 at the time of the accident. Their average age was (31.3 ± 5.3) years at the time of the accident and (58.9 ± 5.3) at the time of survey. The results revealed that the Chornobyl nuclear accident and its consequences caused strong social and psychological stress among clean up workers 1986-1987. We have identified a set of factors closely related to the Chornobyl accident, they have caused a sustainable development of mental syndrome - «Anxiety about their own health and the health of family members, especially children». The other set of stressors which are not closely relat ed to the Chornobyl accident but are the result of the social and economic, social and political situation in the coun try. However the former was found to be the cause of such a psychological state as «dissatisfaction with the com pleteness and quality of life». Social and psychological state of the Chornobyl clean up workers 1986-1987 is estimated as «poor» and it integrally can be characterized as a state of chronic psychosocial stress. Mental syndrome «Anxiety about per sonal health and the health of family members» and psychological syndrome «Dissatisfaction with living condi tions» are main consequences of this state. We identified the main stressors closely related to the consequences of the Chornobyl accident as well as those that are not related to the accident but affect profoundly the level of men tal, social and physical well being. Results of the research are of great importance in organization and provision of social, medical and antiradiation protection of population under emergency situations involving radiation exposure. Key words: Chornobyl accident, clean up workers, social and psychological state, risk factors. V. О. Buzunov, K. N. Loganovsky, L. I. Krasnikova, M. O. Bomko, Yu. M. Belyaev, Zh. S. Yaroshenko, T. Ye. Domashevska.

  18. An overview of current knowledge concerning the health and environmental consequences of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) accident.

    PubMed

    Aliyu, Abubakar Sadiq; Evangeliou, Nikolaos; Mousseau, Timothy Alexander; Wu, Junwen; Ramli, Ahmad Termizi

    2015-12-01

    Since 2011, the scientific community has worked to identify the exact transport and deposition patterns of radionuclides released from the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) in Japan. Nevertheless, there still remain many unknowns concerning the health and environmental impacts of these radionuclides. The present paper reviews the current understanding of the FDNPP accident with respect to interactions of the released radionuclides with the environment and impacts on human and non-human biota. Here, we scrutinize existing literature and combine and interpret observations and modeling assessments derived after Fukushima. Finally, we discuss the behavior and applications of radionuclides that might be used as tracers of environmental processes. This review focuses on (137)Cs and (131)I releases derived from Fukushima. Published estimates suggest total release amounts of 12-36.7PBq of (137)Cs and 150-160PBq of (131)I. Maximum estimated human mortality due to the Fukushima nuclear accident is 10,000 (due to all causes) and the maximum estimates for lifetime cancer mortality and morbidity are 1500 and 1800, respectively. Studies of plants and animals in the forests of Fukushima have recorded a range of physiological, developmental, morphological, and behavioral consequences of exposure to radioactivity. Some of the effects observed in the exposed populations include the following: hematological aberrations in Fukushima monkeys; genetic, developmental and morphological aberrations in a butterfly; declines in abundances of birds, butterflies and cicadas; aberrant growth forms in trees; and morphological abnormalities in aphids. These findings are discussed from the perspective of conservation biology. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Occupational accidents in the Netherlands: incidence, mental harm, and their relationship with psychosocial factors at work.

    PubMed

    van der Klauw, Marloes; Hengel, Karen Oude; Roozeboom, Maartje Bakhuys; Koppes, Lando L; Venema, Anita

    2016-01-01

    This study investigated the incidence of mental harm due to occupational accidents and the relation between psychosocial factors at work and the occurrence of occupational accidents in the Netherlands for the construction industry and health and welfare sector. Analyses revealed that occupational accidents in the construction industry more often involved physical harm, whereas accidents in the health and welfare sector relatively more often resulted in mental harm, in comparison to other sectors. Results showed that psychosocial factors were associated with occupational accidents in both sectors. For the construction industry, high time pressure and exposure to violence and harassment by colleagues or supervisors were associated with occupational accidents. For the health and welfare sector, low autonomy and exposure to violence and harassment by colleagues or supervisors or by people outside the organization were associated with occupational accidents. The present paper stresses the importance of also taking psychological consequences and psychosocial factors at work into account in assessing the occurrence of occupational accidents.

  20. [Clinical resulting risks in the persons injured in the traffic accident depending on the role and position in the traffic].

    PubMed

    Hur'iev, S O; Chundak, S S; Satsyk, S P

    2013-03-01

    Clinical resulting risks of the abdominal organs trauma in the injured persons, as a consequence of a traffic accident, constitute an important component of multicomponent polysystem trauma for the sign of taking part in a traffic.

  1. The Ekofisk Accident Its Environmental and Political Implications

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wallenberg, Bengt

    1977-01-01

    The information collected from the accident at the Ekofisk offshore oil field is used to examine the environmental consequences and the costs of marine oil pollution. As offshore drillings increase throughout the world, there is a need for more information on this pollution problem and for more cooperation among nations. (MA)

  2. Societal and ethical aspects of the Fukushima accident.

    PubMed

    Oughton, Deborah

    2016-10-01

    The Fukushima Nuclear Power Station accident in Japan in 2011 was a poignant reminder that radioactive contamination of the environment has consequences that encompass far more than health risks from exposure to radiation. Both the accident and remediation measures have resulted in serious societal impacts and raise questions about the ethical aspects of risk management. This article presents a brief review of some of these issues and compares similarities and differences with the lessons learned from the 1986 Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant accident in Ukraine. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2016;12:651-653. © 2016 SETAC. © 2016 SETAC.

  3. [Mortality in traffic accidents in Bayamo, Cuba 2011].

    PubMed

    Piña-Tornés, Arlines; González-Longoria, Lourdes; González-Pardo, Secundino; Acosta-González, Ariel; Vintimilla-Burgos, Patricio; Paspuel-Yar, Silvana

    2014-01-01

    With the objective of describing mortality from traffic accidents in Bayamo, Cuba, in 2011 a review was performed of injured and deceased patients due to traffic accidents, recorded in the Hospital Carlos M. de Céspedes. Of the 1,365 injured patients treated in the emergency room, the predominant groups were individuals aged 25 to 44 years comprising 372 patients (27.3%) and men comprising 1,071 (78.5%). 46 people died, most from the same age group and male. Multiple traumatisms (52.6%) and craniofacial trauma (34.2%) were the predominant injuries. Motor vehicle-pedestrian accidents stood out with a mortality of 26.3%. In conclusion, mortality from traffic accidents predominately occurs in young male adults, whose fatal consequences are due to multiple traumatisms from road accidents.

  4. HIGH-FIDELITY SIMULATION-DRIVEN MODEL DEVELOPMENT FOR COARSE-GRAINED COMPUTATIONAL FLUID DYNAMICS

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Hanna, Botros N.; Dinh, Nam T.; Bolotnov, Igor A.

    Nuclear reactor safety analysis requires identifying various credible accident scenarios and determining their consequences. For a full-scale nuclear power plant system behavior, it is impossible to obtain sufficient experimental data for a broad range of risk-significant accident scenarios. In single-phase flow convective problems, Direct Numerical Simulation (DNS) and Large Eddy Simulation (LES) can provide us with high fidelity results when physical data are unavailable. However, these methods are computationally expensive and cannot be afforded for simulation of long transient scenarios in nuclear accidents despite extraordinary advances in high performance scientific computing over the past decades. The major issue is themore » inability to make the transient computation parallel, thus making number of time steps required in high-fidelity methods unaffordable for long transients. In this work, we propose to apply a high fidelity simulation-driven approach to model sub-grid scale (SGS) effect in Coarse Grained Computational Fluid Dynamics CG-CFD. This approach aims to develop a statistical surrogate model instead of the deterministic SGS model. We chose to start with a turbulent natural convection case with volumetric heating in a horizontal fluid layer with a rigid, insulated lower boundary and isothermal (cold) upper boundary. This scenario of unstable stratification is relevant to turbulent natural convection in a molten corium pool during a severe nuclear reactor accident, as well as in containment mixing and passive cooling. The presented approach demonstrates how to create a correction for the CG-CFD solution by modifying the energy balance equation. A global correction for the temperature equation proves to achieve a significant improvement to the prediction of steady state temperature distribution through the fluid layer.« less

  5. [Health-related quality of life of people with severe traumatic injury: a longitudinal study using the SF-36 health survey].

    PubMed

    Bauer, J; Beck, B; Wandl, U

    2013-06-01

    Even though 85 percent of those who have been severely injured in an accident in Germany survive, complex and serious long-term consequences are still a major problem not only for health and care insurance providers but also for the accident victims themselves because their quality of life is affected permanently. Therefore the aim of the current study is to identify factors that significantly improve the quality of life after a severe traumatic injury and to investigate whether the support by a reintegration service has a positive effect on the victims' quality of life. The sample consisted of severely injured accident victims who were supported by a reintegration service. The data collection comprised three data points. At every data point the SF-36 questionnaire was used to assess the participants' quality of life. The results indicate that an individual medical-vocational support by a reintegration service has the potential to significantly and stably improve the physical aspects of quality of life, even if the accident dates back several years. Furthermore it appears to be important to support the independence of the accident victims because assistance by a third person correlates with a lower degree of physical quality of life, regardless of severity or type of injury. Moreover it becomes clear that it is important to pay more attention to the treatment of psychological consequences of severe accidents.

  6. Accident history, risk perception and traffic safe behaviour.

    PubMed

    Ngueutsa, Robert; Kouabenan, Dongo Rémi

    2017-09-01

    This study clarifies the associations between accident history, perception of the riskiness of road travel and traffic safety behaviours by taking into account the number and severity of accidents experienced. A sample of 525 road users in Cameroon answered a questionnaire comprising items on perception of risk, safe behaviour and personal accident history. Participants who reported involvement in more than three accidents or involvement in a severe accident perceived road travel as less risky and also reported behaving less safely compared with those involved in fewer, or less severe accidents. The results have practical implications for the prevention of traffic accidents. Practitioner Summary: The associations between accident history, perceived risk of road travel and safe behaviour were investigated using self-report questionnaire data. Participants involved in more than three accidents, or in severe accidents, perceived road travel as less risky and also reported more unsafe behaviour compared with those involved in fewer, or less severe accidents. Campaigns targeting people with a less serious, less extensive accident history should aim to increase awareness of hazards and the potential severity of their consequences, as well as emphasising how easy it is to take the recommended preventive actions. Campaigns targeting those involved in more frequent accidents, and survivors of serious accidents, should address feelings of invulnerability and helplessness.

  7. Development of economic consequence methodology for process risk analysis.

    PubMed

    Zadakbar, Omid; Khan, Faisal; Imtiaz, Syed

    2015-04-01

    A comprehensive methodology for economic consequence analysis with appropriate models for risk analysis of process systems is proposed. This methodology uses loss functions to relate process deviations in a given scenario to economic losses. It consists of four steps: definition of a scenario, identification of losses, quantification of losses, and integration of losses. In this methodology, the process deviations that contribute to a given accident scenario are identified and mapped to assess potential consequences. Losses are assessed with an appropriate loss function (revised Taguchi, modified inverted normal) for each type of loss. The total loss is quantified by integrating different loss functions. The proposed methodology has been examined on two industrial case studies. Implementation of this new economic consequence methodology in quantitative risk assessment will provide better understanding and quantification of risk. This will improve design, decision making, and risk management strategies. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  8. DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    DeVine Jr, J.C.

    The Three Mile Island Unit 2 (TMI-2) accident in March 1979 had a profound effect on the course of commercial nuclear generation in the United States and around the world. And while the central elements of the accident were matters of nuclear engineering, design and operations, its consequences were compounded, and in some respects superseded, by extraordinarily ineffective communications by all parties at all levels. Communications failures during the accident and its aftermath caused misunderstanding, distrust, and incorrect emergency response - and seeded or reinforced public opposition to nuclear power that persists to this day. There are communications lessons frommore » TMI that have not yet been fully learned, and some that once were learned but are now gradually being forgotten. The more glaring TMI communications problems were in the arena of external interactions and communications among the plant owner, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), the media, and the public. Confusing, fragmented, and contradictory public statements early in the accident, regardless of cause, undermined all possibility for reasonable discourse thereafter. And because the TMI accident was playing out on a world stage, the breakdown in public trust had long term and widespread implications. At the plant site, both TMI-2 cleanup and restart of the undamaged TMI-1 unit met with years of public and political criticism, and attendant regulatory pressure. Across the nation, public trust in nuclear power and those who operate it plummeted, unquestionably contributing to the 25+ year hiatus in new plant orders. There were other, less visible but equally important, consequences of ineffective communications at TMI. The unplanned 'precautionary' evacuation urged by the governor two days after the accident - a life changing, traumatic event for thousands of residents - was prompted primarily by misunderstandings and miscommunications regarding the condition of the plant. And today, nearly 30 years after the event, many in our nuclear industry have insufficient knowledge or regard for the underlying nuclear safety vulnerabilities revealed by the accident, in part because these have not been well explained. From this single, compelling experience, many lessons can be drawn. Some of these were recognized early and taken to heart by those who own and operate nuclear plants - but over time, respect for their importance has given way somewhat to the seemingly more urgent practicalities of plant cost, schedule and production goals. In other cases, the lessons have remained largely obscure. This paper will describe in greater detail the communications aspects of the TMI accident, lessons that can be drawn from them, and their implications on current and future nuclear facility operation. The paper reflects the author's personal, direct experience as part of the accident response team and subsequent cleanup operations at TMI. In summary: The Three Mile Accident was the most severe nuclear accident in U.S. history. It also is perhaps the most studied industrial accident of any kind in U.S. history. Exhaustive examinations of the public health consequences of the accident show convincingly that the effects of radioactivity releases, if any, were imperceptibly low. It is generally agreed, however, that there have been perceptible health consequences from the TMI-2 accident - those linked to stress. Stress to members of the public, particularly those living near the plant, was unquestionably high. And for some the combination of rumor, confusion, contradictory reports and uncertainty, all leading to an evacuation recommendation from the governor, took a toll. It could be argued that the ineffective internal and external communications during the course of the event were as influential to the outcome as the equipment and operational breakdowns that are now so well understood. And for that reason alone, this accident points out that communications capabilities - staffing, systems, facilities, training - can be as important to protection of the public, the plant and the environment as are the plant material and technical issues that receive constant attention. (authors)« less

  9. A modeling framework for exposing risks in complex systems.

    PubMed

    Sharit, J

    2000-08-01

    This article introduces and develops a modeling framework for exposing risks in the form of human errors and adverse consequences in high-risk systems. The modeling framework is based on two components: a two-dimensional theory of accidents in systems developed by Perrow in 1984, and the concept of multiple system perspectives. The theory of accidents differentiates systems on the basis of two sets of attributes. One set characterizes the degree to which systems are interactively complex; the other emphasizes the extent to which systems are tightly coupled. The concept of multiple perspectives provides alternative descriptions of the entire system that serve to enhance insight into system processes. The usefulness of these two model components derives from a modeling framework that cross-links them, enabling a variety of work contexts to be exposed and understood that would otherwise be very difficult or impossible to identify. The model components and the modeling framework are illustrated in the case of a large and comprehensive trauma care system. In addition to its general utility in the area of risk analysis, this methodology may be valuable in applications of current methods of human and system reliability analysis in complex and continually evolving high-risk systems.

  10. Generalized railway tank car safety design optimization for hazardous materials transport: addressing the trade-off between transportation efficiency and safety.

    PubMed

    Saat, Mohd Rapik; Barkan, Christopher P L

    2011-05-15

    North America railways offer safe and generally the most economical means of long distance transport of hazardous materials. Nevertheless, in the event of a train accident releases of these materials can pose substantial risk to human health, property or the environment. The majority of railway shipments of hazardous materials are in tank cars. Improving the safety design of these cars to make them more robust in accidents generally increases their weight thereby reducing their capacity and consequent transportation efficiency. This paper presents a generalized tank car safety design optimization model that addresses this tradeoff. The optimization model enables evaluation of each element of tank car safety design, independently and in combination with one another. We present the optimization model by identifying a set of Pareto-optimal solutions for a baseline tank car design in a bicriteria decision problem. This model provides a quantitative framework for a rational decision-making process involving tank car safety design enhancements to reduce the risk of transporting hazardous materials. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Pattern extraction for high-risk accidents in the construction industry: a data-mining approach.

    PubMed

    Amiri, Mehran; Ardeshir, Abdollah; Fazel Zarandi, Mohammad Hossein; Soltanaghaei, Elahe

    2016-09-01

    Accidents involving falls and falling objects (group I) are highly frequent accidents in the construction industry. While being hit by a vehicle, electric shock, collapse in the excavation and fire or explosion accidents (group II) are much less frequent, they make up a considerable proportion of severe accidents. In this study, multiple-correspondence analysis, decision tree, ensembles of decision tree and association rules methods are employed to analyse a database of construction accidents throughout Iran between 2007 and 2011. The findings indicate that in group I, there is a significant correspondence among these variables: time of accident, place of accident, body part affected, final consequence of accident and lost workdays. Moreover, the frequency of accidents in the night shift is less than others, and the frequency of injury to the head, back, spine and limbs are more. In group II, the variables time of accident and body part affected are mostly related and the frequency of accidents among married and older workers is more than single and young workers. There was a higher frequency in the evening, night shifts and weekends. The results of this study are totally in line with the previous research.

  12. Historical analysis of US pipeline accidents triggered by natural hazards

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Girgin, Serkan; Krausmann, Elisabeth

    2015-04-01

    Natural hazards, such as earthquakes, floods, landslides, or lightning, can initiate accidents in oil and gas pipelines with potentially major consequences on the population or the environment due to toxic releases, fires and explosions. Accidents of this type are also referred to as Natech events. Many major accidents highlight the risk associated with natural-hazard impact on pipelines transporting dangerous substances. For instance, in the USA in 1994, flooding of the San Jacinto River caused the rupture of 8 and the undermining of 29 pipelines by the floodwaters. About 5.5 million litres of petroleum and related products were spilled into the river and ignited. As a results, 547 people were injured and significant environmental damage occurred. Post-incident analysis is a valuable tool for better understanding the causes, dynamics and impacts of pipeline Natech accidents in support of future accident prevention and mitigation. Therefore, data on onshore hazardous-liquid pipeline accidents collected by the US Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA) was analysed. For this purpose, a database-driven incident data analysis system was developed to aid the rapid review and categorization of PHMSA incident reports. Using an automated data-mining process followed by a peer review of the incident records and supported by natural hazard databases and external information sources, the pipeline Natechs were identified. As a by-product of the data-collection process, the database now includes over 800,000 incidents from all causes in industrial and transportation activities, which are automatically classified in the same way as the PHMSA record. This presentation describes the data collection and reviewing steps conducted during the study, provides information on the developed database and data analysis tools, and reports the findings of a statistical analysis of the identified hazardous liquid pipeline incidents in terms of accident dynamics and consequences.

  13. Preliminary results of consequence assessment of a hypothetical severe accident using Thai meteorological data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Silva, K.; Lawawirojwong, S.; Promping, J.

    2017-06-01

    Consequence assessment of a hypothetical severe accident is one of the important elements of the risk assessment of a nuclear power plant. It is widely known that the meteorological conditions can significantly influence the outcomes of such assessment, since it determines the results of the calculation of the radionuclide environmental transport. This study aims to assess the impacts of the meteorological conditions to the results of the consequence assessment. The consequence assessment code, OSCAAR, of Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA) is used for the assessment. The results of the consequence assessment using Thai meteorological data are compared with those using Japanese meteorological data. The Thai case has following characteristics. Low wind speed made the radionuclides concentrate at the center comparing to the Japanese case. The squalls induced the peaks in the ground concentration distribution. The evacuated land is larger than the Japanese case though the relocated land is smaller, which is attributed to the concentration of the radionuclides near the release point.

  14. Individual dose due to radioactivity accidental release from fusion reactor.

    PubMed

    Nie, Baojie; Ni, Muyi; Wei, Shiping

    2017-04-05

    As an important index shaping the design of fusion safety system, evaluation of public radiation consequences have risen as a hot topic on the way to develop fusion energy. In this work, the comprehensive public early dose was evaluated due to unit gram tritium (HT/HTO), activated dust, activated corrosion products (ACPs) and activated gases accidental release from ITER like fusion reactor. Meanwhile, considering that we cannot completely eliminate the occurrence likelihood of multi-failure of vacuum vessel and tokamak building, we conservatively evaluated the public radiation consequences and environment restoration after the worst hypothetical accident preliminarily. The comparison results show early dose of different unit radioactivity release under different conditions. After further performing the radiation consequences, we find it possible that the hypothetical accident for ITER like fusion reactor would result in a level 6 accident according to INES, not appear level 7 like Chernobyl or Fukushima accidents. And from the point of environment restoration, we need at least 69 years for case 1 (1kg HTO and 1000kg dust release) and 34-52years for case 2 (1kg HTO and 10kg-100kg dust release) to wait the contaminated zone drop below the general public safety limit (1mSv per year) before it is suitable for human habitation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Prognosis of outcome in adult survivors of road accidents in France: one-year follow-Up in the ESPARR cohort.

    PubMed

    Nhac-Vu, Hoang-Thy; Hours, Martine; Chossegros, Laetitia; Charnay, Pierrette; Tardy, Helene; Martin, Jean-Louis; Mazaux, Jean-Michel; Laumon, Bernard

    2014-01-01

    The consequences of road crashes are various, and few studies have dealt with the multidimensionality of outcomes. The aim of the present study was to assess the multidimensional nature of outcomes one year after a crash and to determine predictive factors that could help in adapting medical and social care to prevent such consequences to improve road crash victims' prognosis. The study population was the 886 respondents to the one-year follow-up from the ESPARR (Etude et Suivi d'une Population d'Accidentés de la Route du Rhône) cohort, aged ≥ 16 years; the analysis was carried out only on the 616 subjects who fully completed a self-report questionnaire on health, social, emotional, and financial status one year after a crash. Multiple correspondence analysis and hierarchical clustering was implemented to produce homogeneous groups according to differences in outcome. Groups were compared using the World Health Organization Quality of Life Assessment (WHOQOL-BREF, a standard instrument of quality of life, assessing physical health, psychological health, social relationships, and environment) and the Injury Impairment Scale (IIS), a tool to predict road crash sequelae. Baseline predictive factors for group attribution were analyzed by weighted multinomial logistic regression models. Three hundred seventeen of the 616 subjects (60.1%) were men. Mean age was 36.9 years (SD = 16.5). Five victim groups were identified in terms of consequences at one year: one group (206 subjects, 33.4%) with few problems, one with essentially physical sequelae, one with problems that were essentially both physical and social, and 2 groups with a wider range of problems (one including psychological problems but fewer environmental problems; the last one reported negative physical, psychological, social, and environmental impact; notably, all had post-concussion syndrome [PCS]). There were significant differences between groups in terms of family status, injury severity, and certain types of injury (thorax, spine, lower limbs). Comparison on the WHOQOL-BREF confirmed that groups reporting more adverse outcomes had a lower quality of life. Description of the 5 groups by IIS indicators showed that IIS underestimated physical consequences one year after the crash. In addition to the known prognostic factors such as age, initial injury severity, and injury type, socioeconomic fragility and having a relative involved in the accident emerged as predictive of poor outcome at one year. One year after the crash, victims may still be experiencing multiple problems in terms of not only physical health but also of mental health, social life, and environment. Poor outcome may be predicted from both accident-related factors and socioeconomic fragility. Our results are useful in catching the attention of both clinicians and the public administration regarding victims at risk of suffering from important consequences after an accident. If those suffering head injuries are recognized, it would be very important to better consider and treat posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) or PCS. Furthermore, subjects from lower socioeconomic backgrounds, with or without lower limb injuries, have numerous difficulties after an accident, notably for returning to work. An objective would be to provide them with more specific support. Supplemental materials are available for this article. Go to the publisher's online edition of Traffic Injury Prevention to view the supplemental file.

  16. Meaning of Missing Values in Eyewitness Recall and Accident Records

    PubMed Central

    Uttl, Bob; Kisinger, Kelly

    2010-01-01

    Background Eyewitness recalls and accident records frequently do not mention the conditions and behaviors of interest to researchers and lead to missing values and to uncertainty about the prevalence of these conditions and behaviors surrounding accidents. Missing values may occur because eyewitnesses report the presence but not the absence of obvious clues/accident features. We examined this possibility. Methodology/Principal Findings Participants watched car accident videos and were asked to recall as much information as they could remember about each accident. The results showed that eyewitnesses were far more likely to report the presence of present obvious clues than the absence of absent obvious clues even though they were aware of their absence. Conclusions One of the principal mechanisms causing missing values may be eyewitnesses' tendency to not report the absence of obvious features. We discuss the implications of our findings for both retrospective and prospective analyses of accident records, and illustrate the consequences of adopting inappropriate assumptions about the meaning of missing values using the Avaluator Avalanche Accident Prevention Card. PMID:20824054

  17. Meaning of missing values in eyewitness recall and accident records.

    PubMed

    Uttl, Bob; Kisinger, Kelly

    2010-09-02

    Eyewitness recalls and accident records frequently do not mention the conditions and behaviors of interest to researchers and lead to missing values and to uncertainty about the prevalence of these conditions and behaviors surrounding accidents. Missing values may occur because eyewitnesses report the presence but not the absence of obvious clues/accident features. We examined this possibility. Participants watched car accident videos and were asked to recall as much information as they could remember about each accident. The results showed that eyewitnesses were far more likely to report the presence of present obvious clues than the absence of absent obvious clues even though they were aware of their absence. One of the principal mechanisms causing missing values may be eyewitnesses' tendency to not report the absence of obvious features. We discuss the implications of our findings for both retrospective and prospective analyses of accident records, and illustrate the consequences of adopting inappropriate assumptions about the meaning of missing values using the Avaluator Avalanche Accident Prevention Card.

  18. Gilbert W. Beebe Symposium on 30 Years after the Chernobyl Accident: Current and Future Studies on Radiation Health Effects.

    PubMed

    Samet, Jonathan M; de González, Amy Berrington; Dauer, Lawrence T; Hatch, Maureen; Kosti, Ourania; Mettler, Fred A; Satyamitra, Merriline M

    2018-01-01

    This commentary summarizes the presentations and discussions from the 2016 Gilbert W. Beebe symposium "30 years after the Chernobyl accident: Current and future studies on radiation health effects." The symposium was hosted by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (the National Academies). The symposium focused on the health consequences of the Chernobyl accident, looking retrospectively at what has been learned and prospectively at potential future discoveries using emerging 21st Century research methodologies.

  19. The Fukushima releases: an inverse modelling approach to assess the source term by using gamma dose rate observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saunier, Olivier; Mathieu, Anne; Didier, Damien; Tombette, Marilyne; Quélo, Denis; Winiarek, Victor; Bocquet, Marc

    2013-04-01

    The Chernobyl nuclear accident and more recently the Fukushima accident highlighted that the largest source of error on consequences assessment is the source term estimation including the time evolution of the release rate and its distribution between radioisotopes. Inverse modelling methods have proved to be efficient to assess the source term due to accidental situation (Gudiksen, 1989, Krysta and Bocquet, 2007, Stohl et al 2011, Winiarek et al 2012). These methods combine environmental measurements and atmospheric dispersion models. They have been recently applied to the Fukushima accident. Most existing approaches are designed to use air sampling measurements (Winiarek et al, 2012) and some of them use also deposition measurements (Stohl et al, 2012, Winiarek et al, 2013). During the Fukushima accident, such measurements are far less numerous and not as well distributed within Japan than the dose rate measurements. To efficiently document the evolution of the contamination, gamma dose rate measurements were numerous, well distributed within Japan and they offered a high temporal frequency. However, dose rate data are not as easy to use as air sampling measurements and until now they were not used in inverse modelling approach. Indeed, dose rate data results from all the gamma emitters present in the ground and in the atmosphere in the vicinity of the receptor. They do not allow one to determine the isotopic composition or to distinguish the plume contribution from wet deposition. The presented approach proposes a way to use dose rate measurement in inverse modeling approach without the need of a-priori information on emissions. The method proved to be efficient and reliable when applied on the Fukushima accident. The emissions for the 8 main isotopes Xe-133, Cs-134, Cs-136, Cs-137, Ba-137m, I-131, I-132 and Te-132 have been assessed. The Daiichi power plant events (such as ventings, explosions…) known to have caused atmospheric releases are well identified in the retrieved source term, except for unit 3 explosion where no measurement was available. The comparisons between the simulations of atmospheric dispersion and deposition of the retrieved source term show a good agreement with environmental observations. Moreover, an important outcome of this study is that the method proved to be perfectly suited to crisis management and should contribute to improve our response in case of a nuclear accident.

  20. Radiation risk models for all solid cancers other than those types of cancer requiring individual assessments after a nuclear accident.

    PubMed

    Walsh, Linda; Zhang, Wei

    2016-03-01

    In the assessment of health risks after nuclear accidents, some health consequences require special attention. For example, in their 2013 report on health risk assessment after the Fukushima nuclear accident, the World Health Organisation (WHO) panel of experts considered risks of breast cancer, thyroid cancer and leukaemia. For these specific cancer types, use was made of already published excess relative risk (ERR) and excess absolute risk (EAR) models for radiation-related cancer incidence fitted to the epidemiological data from the Japanese A-bomb Life Span Study (LSS). However, it was also considered important to assess all other types of solid cancer together and the WHO, in their above-mentioned report, stated "No model to calculate the risk for all other solid cancer excluding breast and thyroid cancer risks is available from the LSS data". Applying the LSS models for all solid cancers along with the models for the specific sites means that some cancers have an overlap in the risk evaluations. Thus, calculating the total solid cancer risk plus the breast cancer risk plus the thyroid cancer risk can overestimate the total risk by several per cent. Therefore, the purpose of this paper was to publish the required models for all other solid cancers, i.e. all solid cancers other than those types of cancer requiring special attention after a nuclear accident. The new models presented here have been fitted to the same LSS data set from which the risks provided by the WHO were derived. Although it is known already that the EAR and ERR effect modifications by sex are statistically significant for the outcome "all solid cancer", it is shown here that sex modification is not statistically significant for the outcome "all solid cancer other than thyroid and breast cancer". It is also shown here that the sex-averaged solid cancer risks with and without the sex modification are very similar once breast and thyroid cancers are factored out. Some other notable model differences between those already published for all solid cancers and those presented here for all other solid cancers are also given here. The models presented here can be used to improve on the methodology adopted by WHO after Fukushima and could contribute to emergency preparedness for future nuclear accidents.

  1. Full-Scale Accident Testing in Support of Used Nuclear Fuel Transportation.

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Durbin, Samuel G.; Lindgren, Eric R.; Rechard, Rob P.

    2014-09-01

    The safe transport of spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste is an important aspect of the waste management system of the United States. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) currently certifies spent nuclear fuel rail cask designs based primarily on numerical modeling of hypothetical accident conditions augmented with some small scale testing. However, NRC initiated a Package Performance Study (PPS) in 2001 to examine the response of full-scale rail casks in extreme transportation accidents. The objectives of PPS were to demonstrate the safety of transportation casks and to provide high-fidelity data for validating the modeling. Although work on the PPSmore » eventually stopped, the Blue Ribbon Commission on America’s Nuclear Future recommended in 2012 that the test plans be re-examined. This recommendation was in recognition of substantial public feedback calling for a full-scale severe accident test of a rail cask to verify evaluations by NRC, which find that risk from the transport of spent fuel in certified casks is extremely low. This report, which serves as the re-assessment, provides a summary of the history of the PPS planning, identifies the objectives and technical issues that drove the scope of the PPS, and presents a possible path for moving forward in planning to conduct a full-scale cask test. Because full-scale testing is expensive, the value of such testing on public perceptions and public acceptance is important. Consequently, the path forward starts with a public perception component followed by two additional components: accident simulation and first responder training. The proposed path forward presents a series of study options with several points where the package performance study could be redirected if warranted.« less

  2. [Analysis of radiation-hygienic and medical consequences of the Chernobyl accident].

    PubMed

    Onishchenko, G G

    2013-01-01

    Since the day of "the Chernobyl accident" in 1986 more than 25 years have been past. Radioactively contaminated areas 14 subjects of the Russian Federation with a total area of more than 50 thousand km2, where 1.5 million people now reside were exposed to radioactive contamination. Currently, a system of comprehensive evaluation of radiation doses of the population affected by the "Chernobyl accidents", including 11 guidance documents has been created. There are methodically provided works on the assessment of average annual, accumulated and predicted radiation doses of population and its critical groups, as well as doses to the thyroid gland The relevance of the analysis of the consequences of the "Chernobyl accident" is demonstrated by the events in Japan, at nuclear power Fukusima-1. In 2011 - 20/2 there were carried out comprehensive maritime expeditions under the auspices of the Russian Geographical Society with the participation of relevant ministries and agencies, leading academic institutions in Russia. In 2012, work was carried out on radiation protection of the population from the potential transboundary impact of the accident at the Japanese nuclear power plant Fukushima-l. The results provide a basis for the favorable outlook for the radiation environment in our Far East and the Pacific coast of Russia.

  3. Nuclear power and probabilistic safety assessment (PSA): past through future applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stamatelatos, M. G.; Moieni, P.; Everline, C. J.

    1995-03-01

    Nuclear power reactor safety in the United States is about to enter a new era -- an era of risk- based management and risk-based regulation. First, there was the age of `prescribed safety assessment,' during which a series of design-basis accidents in eight categories of severity, or classes, were postulated and analyzed. Toward the end of that era, it was recognized that `Class 9,' or `beyond design basis,' accidents would need special attention because of the potentially severe health and financial consequences of these accidents. The accident at Three Mile Island showed that sequences of low-consequence, high-frequency events and human errors can be much more risk dominant than the Class 9 accidents. A different form of safety assessment, PSA, emerged and began to gain ground against the deterministic safety establishment. Eventually, this led to the current regulatory requirements for individual plant examinations (IPEs). The IPEs can serve as a basis for risk-based regulation and management, a concept that may ultimately transform the U.S. regulatory process from its traditional deterministic foundations to a process predicated upon PSA. Beyond the possibility of a regulatory environment predicated upon PSA lies the possibility of using PSA as the foundation for managing daily nuclear power plant operations.

  4. Risk of Motor Vehicle Accidents Related to Sleepiness at the Wheel: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

    PubMed

    Bioulac, Stéphanie; Franchi, Jean-Arthur Micoulaud; Arnaud, Mickael; Sagaspe, Patricia; Moore, Nicholas; Salvo, Francesco; Philip, Pierre

    2017-10-01

    Sleepiness at the wheel is widely believed to be a cause of motor vehicle accidents. Nevertheless, a systematic review of studies investigating this relationship has not yet been published. The objective of this study was to quantify the relationship between sleepiness at the wheel and motor vehicle accidents. A systematic review was performed using Medline, Scopus, and ISI Web of Science. The outcome measure of interest was motor vehicle accident defined as involving four- or two-wheeled vehicles in road traffic, professional and nonprofessional drivers, with or without objective consequences. The exposure was sleepiness at the wheel defined as self-reported sleepiness at the wheel. Studies were included if they provided adjusted risk estimates of motor vehicle accidents related to sleepiness at the wheel. Risk estimates and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were extracted and pooled as odds ratios (ORs) using a random-effect model. Heterogeneity was quantified using Q statistics and the I2 index. The potential causes of heterogeneity were investigated using meta-regressions. Ten cross-sectional studies (51,520 participants), six case-control studies (4904 participants), and one cohort study (13,674 participants) were included. Sleepiness at the wheel was associated with an increased risk of motor vehicle accidents (pooled OR 2.51 [95% CI 1.87; 3.39]). A significant heterogeneity was found between the individual risk estimates (Q = 93.21; I2 = 83%). Sleepiness at the wheel increases the risk of motor vehicle accidents and should be considered when investigating fitness to drive. Further studies are required to explore the nature of this relationship. PROSPERO 2015 CRD42015024805. © Sleep Research Society 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Sleep Research Society. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail journals.permissions@oup.com.

  5. [Thrombosis and post-thrombotic syndrome as a consequence of an accident].

    PubMed

    Wahl, U; Hirsch, T

    2015-10-01

    Phlebothromboses represent alarming complications in accident victims since they can cause fatal pulmonary embolisms. More than half of those affected also develop post-thrombotic syndrome in the course of the illness. In addition to making clinical assessments, the traumatologist should also have fundamental knowledge about diagnostic methods and be familiar with interpreting internal findings. Colour-coded duplex sonography plays a central role in diagnosing thrombosis and in assessing functional limitations. Further information can be gathered from various phlebological procedures. The expert evaluation of the immediate, as well as the long-term consequences of an accident frequently require leg swelling to be classified. It is not uncommon for post-thrombotic syndrome to be diagnosed for the first time during this process. An additional vascular appraisal is often required. An appreciation of social-medical and insurance-related aspects means a high degree of responsibility is placed on the expert.

  6. Experimental evidence against the paradigm of mortality risk aversion.

    PubMed

    Rheinberger, Christoph M

    2010-04-01

    This article deals with the question of how societal impacts of fatal accidents can be integrated into the management of natural or man-made hazards. Today, many governmental agencies give additional weight to the number of potential fatalities in their risk assessments to reflect society's aversion to large accidents. Although mortality risk aversion has been proposed in numerous risk management guidelines, there has been no evidence that lay people want public decisionmakers to overweight infrequent accidents of large societal consequences against more frequent ones of smaller societal consequences. Furthermore, it is not known whether public decisionmakers actually do such overweighting when they decide upon the mitigation of natural or technical hazards. In this article, we report on two experimental tasks that required participants to evaluate negative prospects involving 1-100 potential fatalities. Our results show that neither lay people nor hazard experts exhibit risk-averse behavior in decisions on mortality risks.

  7. Thyroid carcinoma in children and adolescents resulting from the Chernobyl accident: possible causes of the incidence increase overestimation.

    PubMed

    Jargin, S V

    2009-04-01

    The Chernobyl accident in the nuclear power plant on 26th April 1986 was followed by numerous publications overestimating the medical consequences of the disaster. In the publications, interpretations of spontaneous diseases as radiation-induced, indication of radioactivity or dose levels without confrontation with the natural radiation background, or conclusions about incidence increase without comparison with the increase tendencies in larger regions or the whole country, can be found. Improved diagnostics after the Chernobyl accident is not always taken into account. The high figures could have been caused in some cases by non-random material selection or inadequate morphological assessment of biopsy specimens. The application of the linear-no-threshold theory to the inhabitants of contaminated areas contributed to an overestimation of medical consequences of the Chernobyl accident as well. The incidence increase of thyroid carcinoma in children and adolescents started in 1990, four years after the accident. High tumor expectancy after the accident, in the circumstances of limited technical possibilities and outdated equipment of histological laboratories, contributed to a higher number of registered cases. The quality of specimens necessary for the assessment of nuclear criteria of papillary carcinoma was not always achieved at that time. The incidence increase of thyroid carcinoma can, at least in part, be explained by improved detection of thyroid nodules with occasional false-positive conclusions about malignancy. Besides, latent carcinomas and well-differentiated thyroid tumors of uncertain malignant potential, diagnosed as malignancies, could have additionally contributed to the high figures.

  8. 40 CFR 1400.1 - Purpose.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... OFF-SITE CONSEQUENCE ANALYSIS INFORMATION DISTRIBUTION OF OFF-SITE CONSEQUENCE ANALYSIS INFORMATION... chemical accidents and submit the results of their analyses to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency as... the portions of risk management plans containing the results of those analyses and certain related...

  9. 40 CFR 1400.1 - Purpose.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... OFF-SITE CONSEQUENCE ANALYSIS INFORMATION DISTRIBUTION OF OFF-SITE CONSEQUENCE ANALYSIS INFORMATION... chemical accidents and submit the results of their analyses to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency as... the portions of risk management plans containing the results of those analyses and certain related...

  10. 40 CFR 1400.1 - Purpose.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... OFF-SITE CONSEQUENCE ANALYSIS INFORMATION DISTRIBUTION OF OFF-SITE CONSEQUENCE ANALYSIS INFORMATION... chemical accidents and submit the results of their analyses to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency as... the portions of risk management plans containing the results of those analyses and certain related...

  11. 40 CFR 1400.1 - Purpose.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... OFF-SITE CONSEQUENCE ANALYSIS INFORMATION DISTRIBUTION OF OFF-SITE CONSEQUENCE ANALYSIS INFORMATION... chemical accidents and submit the results of their analyses to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency as... the portions of risk management plans containing the results of those analyses and certain related...

  12. Probability analysis of multiple-tank-car release incidents in railway hazardous materials transportation.

    PubMed

    Liu, Xiang; Saat, Mohd Rapik; Barkan, Christopher P L

    2014-07-15

    Railroads play a key role in the transportation of hazardous materials in North America. Rail transport differs from highway transport in several aspects, an important one being that rail transport involves trains in which many railcars carrying hazardous materials travel together. By contrast to truck accidents, it is possible that a train accident may involve multiple hazardous materials cars derailing and releasing contents with consequently greater potential impact on human health, property and the environment. In this paper, a probabilistic model is developed to estimate the probability distribution of the number of tank cars releasing contents in a train derailment. Principal operational characteristics considered include train length, derailment speed, accident cause, position of the first car derailed, number and placement of tank cars in a train and tank car safety design. The effect of train speed, tank car safety design and tank car positions in a train were evaluated regarding the number of cars that release their contents in a derailment. This research provides insights regarding the circumstances affecting multiple-tank-car release incidents and potential strategies to reduce their occurrences. The model can be incorporated into a larger risk management framework to enable better local, regional and national safety management of hazardous materials transportation by rail. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Safety assessment methodology in management of spent sealed sources.

    PubMed

    Mahmoud, Narmine Salah

    2005-02-14

    Environmental hazards can be caused from radioactive waste after their disposal. It was therefore important that safety assessment methodologies be developed and established to study and estimate the possible hazards, and institute certain safety methodologies that lead and prevent the evolution of these hazards. Spent sealed sources are specific type of radioactive waste. According to IAEA definition, spent sealed sources are unused sources because of activity decay, damage, misuse, loss, or theft. Accidental exposure of humans from spent sealed sources can occur at the moment they become spent and before their disposal. Because of that reason, safety assessment methodologies were tailored to suit the management of spent sealed sources. To provide understanding and confidence of this study, validation analysis was undertaken by considering the scenario of an accident that occurred in Egypt, June 2000 (the Meet-Halfa accident from an iridium-192 source). The text of this work includes consideration related to the safety assessment approaches of spent sealed sources which constitutes assessment context, processes leading an active source to be spent, accident scenarios, mathematical models for dose calculations, and radiological consequences and regulatory criteria. The text also includes a validation study, which was carried out by evaluating a theoretical scenario compared to the real scenario of Meet-Halfa accident depending on the clinical assessment of affected individuals.

  14. Human Factors in Cabin Accident Investigations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chute, Rebecca D.; Rosekind, Mark R. (Technical Monitor)

    1996-01-01

    Human factors has become an integral part of the accident investigation protocol. However, much of the investigative process remains focussed on the flight deck, airframe, and power plant systems. As a consequence, little data has been collected regarding the human factors issues within and involving the cabin during an accident. Therefore, the possibility exists that contributing factors that lie within that domain may be overlooked. The FAA Office of Accident Investigation is sponsoring a two-day workshop on cabin safety accident investigation. This course, within the workshop, will be of two hours duration and will explore relevant areas of human factors research. Specifically, the three areas of discussion are: Information transfer and resource management, fatigue and other physical stressors, and the human/machine interface. Integration of these areas will be accomplished by providing a suggested checklist of specific cabin-related human factors questions for investigators to probe following an accident.

  15. Analysis of construction accidents in Spain, 2003-2008.

    PubMed

    López Arquillos, Antonio; Rubio Romero, Juan Carlos; Gibb, Alistair

    2012-12-01

    The research objective for this paper is to obtain a new extended and updated insight to the likely causes of construction accidents in Spain, in order to identify suitable mitigating actions. The paper analyzes all construction sector accidents in Spain between 2003 and 2008. Ten variables were chosen and the influence of each variable is evaluated with respect to the severity of the accident. The descriptive analysis is based on a total of 1,163,178 accidents. Results showed that the severity of accidents was related to variables including age, CNAE (National Classification of Economic Activities) code, size of company, length of service, location of accident, day of the week, days of absence, deviation, injury, and climatic zones. According to data analyzed, a large company is not always necessarily safer than a small company in the aspect of fatal accidents, experienced workers do not have the best accident fatality rates, and accidents occurring away from the usual workplace had more severe consequences. Results obtained in this paper can be used by companies in their occupational safety strategies, and in their safety training programs. Copyright © 2012 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Laser-heating and Radiance Spectrometry for the Study of Nuclear Materials in Conditions Simulating a Nuclear Power Plant Accident.

    PubMed

    Manara, Dario; Soldi, Luca; Mastromarino, Sara; Boboridis, Kostantinos; Robba, Davide; Vlahovic, Luka; Konings, Rudy

    2017-12-14

    Major and severe accidents have occurred three times in nuclear power plants (NPPs), at Three Mile Island (USA, 1979), Chernobyl (former USSR, 1986) and Fukushima (Japan, 2011). Research on the causes, dynamics, and consequences of these mishaps has been performed in a few laboratories worldwide in the last three decades. Common goals of such research activities are: the prevention of these kinds of accidents, both in existing and potential new nuclear power plants; the minimization of their eventual consequences; and ultimately, a full understanding of the real risks connected with NPPs. At the European Commission Joint Research Centre's Institute for Transuranium Elements, a laser-heating and fast radiance spectro-pyrometry facility is used for the laboratory simulation, on a small scale, of NPP core meltdown, the most common type of severe accident (SA) that can occur in a nuclear reactor as a consequence of a failure of the cooling system. This simulation tool permits fast and effective high-temperature measurements on real nuclear materials, such as plutonium and minor actinide-containing fission fuel samples. In this respect, and in its capability to produce large amount of data concerning materials under extreme conditions, the current experimental approach is certainly unique. For current and future concepts of NPP, example results are presented on the melting behavior of some different types of nuclear fuels: uranium-plutonium oxides, carbides, and nitrides. Results on the high-temperature interaction of oxide fuels with containment materials are also briefly shown.

  17. LNG risk management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martino, P.

    1980-12-01

    A general methodology is presented for conducting an analysis of the various aspects of the hazards associated with the storage and transportation of liquefied natural gas (LNG) which should be considered during the planning stages of a typical LNG ship terminal. The procedure includes the performance of a hazards and system analysis of the proposed site, a probability analysis of accident scenarios and safety impacts, an analysis of the consequences of credible accidents such as tanker accidents, spills and fires, the assessment of risks and the design and evaluation of risk mitigation measures.

  18. [Nuclear-power-plant accidents: thyroid cancer incidence and radiation-related health effects from the Chernobyl accident].

    PubMed

    Schlumberger, Martin; Le Guen, Bernard

    2012-01-01

    Following the Chernobyl accident, enormous amounts of radioisotopes were released in the atmosphere and have contaminated surrounding populations in the absence of rapid protective countermeasures. The highest radiation doses were delivered to the thyroid gland, and the only direct consequence of radiation exposure observed among contaminated population is the increased incidence of thyroid cancers among subjects who were children in 1986 and who lived at that time in Belarus, Ukraine or Russia. © 2012 médecine/sciences – Inserm / SRMS.

  19. SOARCA Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Long-Term Station Blackout Uncertainty Analysis: Convergence of the Uncertainty Results

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Bixler, Nathan E.; Osborn, Douglas M.; Sallaberry, Cedric Jean-Marie

    2014-02-01

    This paper describes the convergence of MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System, Version 2 (MACCS2) probabilistic results of offsite consequences for the uncertainty analysis of the State-of-the-Art Reactor Consequence Analyses (SOARCA) unmitigated long-term station blackout scenario at the Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station. The consequence metrics evaluated are individual latent-cancer fatality (LCF) risk and individual early fatality risk. Consequence results are presented as conditional risk (i.e., assuming the accident occurs, risk per event) to individuals of the public as a result of the accident. In order to verify convergence for this uncertainty analysis, as recommended by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s Advisorymore » Committee on Reactor Safeguards, a ‘high’ source term from the original population of Monte Carlo runs has been selected to be used for: (1) a study of the distribution of consequence results stemming solely from epistemic uncertainty in the MACCS2 parameters (i.e., separating the effect from the source term uncertainty), and (2) a comparison between Simple Random Sampling (SRS) and Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) in order to validate the original results obtained with LHS. Three replicates (each using a different random seed) of size 1,000 each using LHS and another set of three replicates of size 1,000 using SRS are analyzed. The results show that the LCF risk results are well converged with either LHS or SRS sampling. The early fatality risk results are less well converged at radial distances beyond 2 miles, and this is expected due to the sparse data (predominance of “zero” results).« less

  20. Applying STAMP in Accident Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Leveson, Nancy; Daouk, Mirna; Dulac, Nicolas; Marais, Karen

    2003-01-01

    Accident models play a critical role in accident investigation and analysis. Most traditional models are based on an underlying chain of events. These models, however, have serious limitations when used for complex, socio-technical systems. Previously, Leveson proposed a new accident model (STAMP) based on system theory. In STAMP, the basic concept is not an event but a constraint. This paper shows how STAMP can be applied to accident analysis using three different views or models of the accident process and proposes a notation for describing this process.

  1. Vulnerability assessment of chemical industry facilities in South Korea based on the chemical accident history

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heo, S.; Lee, W. K.; Jong-Ryeul, S.; Kim, M. I.

    2016-12-01

    The use of chemical compounds are keep increasing because of their use in manufacturing industry. Chemical accident is growing as the consequence of the chemical use increment. Devastating damages from chemical accidents are far enough to aware people's cautious about the risk of the chemical accident. In South Korea, Gumi Hydrofluoric acid leaking accident triggered the importance of risk management and emphasized the preventing the accident over the damage reducing process after the accident occurs. Gumi accident encouraged the government data base construction relate to the chemical accident. As the result of this effort Chemical Safety-Clearing-house (CSC) have started to record the chemical accident information and damages according to the Harmful Chemical Substance Control Act (HCSC). CSC provide details information about the chemical accidents from 2002 to present. The detail informations are including title of company, address, business type, accident dates, accident types, accident chemical compounds, human damages inside of the chemical industry facilities, human damage outside of the chemical industry facilities, financial damages inside of the chemical industry facilities, and financial damages outside of the chemical industry facilities, environmental damages and response to the chemical accident. Collected the chemical accident history of South Korea from 2002 to 2015 and provide the spatial information to the each accident records based on their address. With the spatial information, compute the data on ArcGIS for the spatial-temporal analysis. The spatial-temporal information of chemical accident is organized by the chemical accident types, damages, and damages on environment and conduct the spatial proximity with local community and environmental receptors. Find the chemical accident vulnerable area of South Korea from 2002 to 2015 and add the vulnerable area of total period to examine the historically vulnerable area from the chemical accident in South Korea.

  2. REAC/TS Radiation Accident Registry: An Overview

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Doran M. Christensen, DO, REAC /TS Associate Director and Staff Physician Becky Murdock, REAC/TS Registry and Health Physics Technician

    2012-12-12

    Over the past four years, REAC/TS has presented a number of case reports from its Radiation Accident Registry. Victims of radiological or nuclear incidents must meet certain dose criteria for an incident to be categorized as an “accident” and be included in the registry. Although the greatest numbers of “accidents” in the United States that have been entered into the registry involve radiation devices, the greater percentage of serious accidents have involved sealed sources of one kind or another. But if one looks at the kinds of accident scenarios that have resulted in extreme consequence, i.e., death, the greater sharemore » of deaths has occurred in medical settings.« less

  3. Distribution of Causes in Selected US Aviation Accident Reports Between 1996 and 2003

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Holloway, C. M.; Johnson, C. W.

    2004-01-01

    This paper describes the results of an independent analysis of the probable and contributory causes of selected aviation accidents in the United States between 1996 and 2003. The purpose of the study was to assess the comparative frequency of a variety of causal factors in the reporting of these adverse events. Although our results show that more of these high consequence accidents were attributed to human error than to any other single factor, a large number of reports also mentioned wider systemic issues, including the managerial and regulatory context of aviation operations. These wider issues are more likely to appear as contributory rather than primary causes in this set of accident reports.

  4. Comparison of the Chernobyl and Fukushima nuclear accidents: a review of the environmental impacts.

    PubMed

    Steinhauser, Georg; Brandl, Alexander; Johnson, Thomas E

    2014-02-01

    The environmental impacts of the nuclear accidents of Chernobyl and Fukushima are compared. In almost every respect, the consequences of the Chernobyl accident clearly exceeded those of the Fukushima accident. In both accidents, most of the radioactivity released was due to volatile radionuclides (noble gases, iodine, cesium, tellurium). However, the amount of refractory elements (including actinides) emitted in the course of the Chernobyl accident was approximately four orders of magnitude higher than during the Fukushima accident. For Chernobyl, a total release of 5,300 PBq (excluding noble gases) has been established as the most cited source term. For Fukushima, we estimated a total source term of 520 (340-800) PBq. In the course of the Fukushima accident, the majority of the radionuclides (more than 80%) was transported offshore and deposited in the Pacific Ocean. Monitoring campaigns after both accidents reveal that the environmental impact of the Chernobyl accident was much greater than of the Fukushima accident. Both the highly contaminated areas and the evacuated areas are smaller around Fukushima and the projected health effects in Japan are significantly lower than after the Chernobyl accident. This is mainly due to the fact that food safety campaigns and evacuations worked quickly and efficiently after the Fukushima accident. In contrast to Chernobyl, no fatalities due to acute radiation effects occurred in Fukushima. © 2013.

  5. Medical management of radiation accidents: capabilities and deployment principles of the Bundeswehr Institute of Radiobiology.

    PubMed

    Dörr, Harald; Meineke, Viktor

    2012-10-01

    Radiation accidents are fortunately infrequent occurrences, but since their consequences can be very serious as in the Chernobyl and the Fukushima nuclear accidents, medical management of radiation accidents is of great importance. Besides several other tasks, medical management of radiation accidents is one of the key tasks of the Bundeswehr Institute of Radiobiology. Within a Task Force Unit for medical chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) Defense, the institute provides designated personnel who will perform clinical investigations on the scene and will liaise with the institute, where different methods for biological dosimetry and dose reconstruction will be performed. The most important aspects of efficient medical management of radiation accidents are diagnosis of radiation-induced health damage, determination of the cause, dealing with contamination/incorporation, pathophysiological and therapeutic principles, preparatory planning, national and international cooperation and training. Military and non-military institutions have to work closely together when it comes to radiation accidents and since national resources are limited and could be exhausted, international networks can help to ensure medical treatment for radiation accident victims.

  6. [Interventions for mental health sequelae of accidents].

    PubMed

    Angenendt, J

    2014-06-01

    Emergency psychology and psychotraumatology deal with the psychological sequelae of traumatic experiences, i.e., the prevention and early intervention of posttraumatic mental health disorders. Accidents are the most prevalent traumatic events in the general population that may result in a range of severe trauma and adjustment disorders. Accidents happen suddenly, unexpectedly, and can gravely threaten health, personal integrity, and life. The prevalence of intermittent and chronic psychiatric disorders in the aftermath of severe accidents varies between 5 and 30 %. Victims suffer from unknown and frightening posttraumatic symptoms, often irreversible handicaps as a consequence of their injuries, impairments in everyday functioning, and negative impact on the quality of life. The direct and indirect burden for society is high. Comprehensive secondary prevention, starting with early detection and early intervention of post-accident disorders, is not well established in clinical care. In case of severe accidental injuries, emergency and medical treatment has absolute priority. But all too often, severe mental health problems remain undetected in later treatment phases and therefore cannot be addressed adequately. In primary care, knowledge of specific psychodiagnostic and treatment options is still insufficient. Prejudices, denial, and fear of stigmatization in traumatized victims as well as practical constraints (availability, waiting time) in the referral to special evidence-based interventions limit the access to adequate and effective support. This overview presents the objectives, concepts, and therapeutic tools of a stepped-care model for psychological symptoms after accidental trauma, with reference to clinical guidelines.

  7. Health effects models for nuclear power plant accident consequence analysis: Low LET radiation

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Evans, J.S.

    1990-01-01

    This report describes dose-response models intended to be used in estimating the radiological health effects of nuclear power plant accidents. Models of early and continuing effects, cancers and thyroid nodules, and genetic effects are provided. Weibull dose-response functions are recommended for evaluating the risks of early and continuing health effects. Three potentially lethal early effects -- the hematopoietic, pulmonary, and gastrointestinal syndromes -- are considered. In addition, models are included for assessing the risks of several nonlethal early and continuing effects -- including prodromal vomiting and diarrhea, hypothyroidism and radiation thyroiditis, skin burns, reproductive effects, and pregnancy losses. Linear andmore » linear-quadratic models are recommended for estimating cancer risks. Parameters are given for analyzing the risks of seven types of cancer in adults -- leukemia, bone, lung, breast, gastrointestinal, thyroid, and other.'' The category, other'' cancers, is intended to reflect the combined risks of multiple myeloma, lymphoma, and cancers of the bladder, kidney, brain, ovary, uterus and cervix. Models of childhood cancers due to in utero exposure are also developed. For most cancers, both incidence and mortality are addressed. The models of cancer risk are derived largely from information summarized in BEIR III -- with some adjustment to reflect more recent studies. 64 refs., 18 figs., 46 tabs.« less

  8. Significance of chronic toxoplasmosis in epidemiology of road traffic accidents in Russian Federation

    PubMed Central

    Stepanova, Ekaterina V.; Kondrashin, Anatoly V.; Sergiev, Vladimir P.; Morozova, Lola F.; Turbabina, Natalia A.; Maksimova, Maria S.; Brazhnikov, Alexey I.; Shevchenko, Sergei B.

    2017-01-01

    Studies carried out in Moscow residents have revealed that the prevalence of chronic toxoplasmosis is very close to those in countries of Eastern and Central Europe. Our findings also demonstrated a statistically significant relationship between the rate of traffic accidents and the seroprevalence of chronic toxoplasmosis in drivers who were held responsible for accidents. The latter was 2.37 times higher in drivers who were involved in road accidents compared with control groups. These results suggest that the consequences of chronic toxoplasmosis (particularly a slower reaction time and decreased concentration) might contribute to the peculiarities of the epidemiology of road traffic accidents in the Russian Federation and might interfere with the successful implementation of the Federal Programme named “Increase road traffic safety”. Suggestions for how to address overcome this problem are discussed in this paper. PMID:28957427

  9. Significance of chronic toxoplasmosis in epidemiology of road traffic accidents in Russian Federation.

    PubMed

    Stepanova, Ekaterina V; Kondrashin, Anatoly V; Sergiev, Vladimir P; Morozova, Lola F; Turbabina, Natalia A; Maksimova, Maria S; Brazhnikov, Alexey I; Shevchenko, Sergei B; Morozov, Evgeny N

    2017-01-01

    Studies carried out in Moscow residents have revealed that the prevalence of chronic toxoplasmosis is very close to those in countries of Eastern and Central Europe. Our findings also demonstrated a statistically significant relationship between the rate of traffic accidents and the seroprevalence of chronic toxoplasmosis in drivers who were held responsible for accidents. The latter was 2.37 times higher in drivers who were involved in road accidents compared with control groups. These results suggest that the consequences of chronic toxoplasmosis (particularly a slower reaction time and decreased concentration) might contribute to the peculiarities of the epidemiology of road traffic accidents in the Russian Federation and might interfere with the successful implementation of the Federal Programme named "Increase road traffic safety". Suggestions for how to address overcome this problem are discussed in this paper.

  10. Severe accidents in the energy sector: comparative perspective.

    PubMed

    Hirschberg, Stefan; Burgherr, Peter; Spiekerman, Gerard; Dones, Roberto

    2004-07-26

    This paper addresses one of the controversial issues in the current comparative studies of the environmental and health impacts of energy systems, i.e. the treatment of severe accidents. The work covers technical aspects of severe accidents and thus primarily reflects an engineering perspective on the energy-related risk issues, though some social implications are also touched upon. The assessment concerns fossil energy sources (coal, oil and gas), nuclear power and hydro power. The scope is not limited to the power production (conversion) step of these energy chains but, whenever applicable, also includes exploration, extraction, transports, processing, storage and waste disposal. With the exception of the nuclear chain the focus of the work has been on the evaluation of the historical experience of accidents. The basis used for this evaluation is a comprehensive database ENSAD (Energy-related Severe Accident Database), established by the Paul Scherrer Institut (PSI). For hypothetical nuclear accidents the probabilistic technique has also been employed and extended to cover the assessment of economic consequences of such accidents. The broader picture obtained by coverage of full energy chains leads on the world-wide basis to aggregated immediate fatality rates being much higher for the fossil chains than what one would expect if only power plants were considered. Generally, the immediate fatality rates are for all considered energy carriers significantly higher for the non-OECD countries than for OECD countries. In the case of hydro and nuclear the difference is in fact dramatic. The presentation of results is not limited to the aggregated values specific for each energy chain. Also frequency-consequence curves are provided. They reflect implicitly the ranking based on the aggregated values but include also such information as the observed or predicted chain-specific maximum extents of damages. This perspective on severe accidents may lead to different system rankings, depending on the individual risk aversion.

  11. Evaluation of radiological dispersion/consequence codes supporting DOE nuclear facility SARs

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    O`Kula, K.R.; Paik, I.K.; Chung, D.Y.

    1996-12-31

    Since the early 1990s, the authorization basis documentation of many U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear facilities has been upgraded to comply with DOE orders and standards. In this process, many safety analyses have been revised. Unfortunately, there has been nonuniform application of software, and the most appropriate computer and engineering methodologies often are not applied. A DOE Accident Phenomenology and Consequence (APAC) Methodology Evaluation Program was originated at the request of DOE Defense Programs to evaluate the safety analysis methodologies used in nuclear facility authorization basis documentation and to define future cost-effective support and development initiatives. Six areas, includingmore » source term development (fire, spills, and explosion analysis), in-facility transport, and dispersion/ consequence analysis (chemical and radiological) are contained in the APAC program. The evaluation process, codes considered, key results, and recommendations for future model and software development of the Radiological Dispersion/Consequence Working Group are summarized in this paper.« less

  12. A model to identify high crash road segments with the dynamic segmentation method.

    PubMed

    Boroujerdian, Amin Mirza; Saffarzadeh, Mahmoud; Yousefi, Hassan; Ghassemian, Hassan

    2014-12-01

    Currently, high social and economic costs in addition to physical and mental consequences put road safety among most important issues. This paper aims at presenting a novel approach, capable of identifying the location as well as the length of high crash road segments. It focuses on the location of accidents occurred along the road and their effective regions. In other words, due to applicability and budget limitations in improving safety of road segments, it is not possible to recognize all high crash road segments. Therefore, it is of utmost importance to identify high crash road segments and their real length to be able to prioritize the safety improvement in roads. In this paper, after evaluating deficiencies of the current road segmentation models, different kinds of errors caused by these methods are addressed. One of the main deficiencies of these models is that they can not identify the length of high crash road segments. In this paper, identifying the length of high crash road segments (corresponding to the arrangement of accidents along the road) is achieved by converting accident data to the road response signal of through traffic with a dynamic model based on the wavelet theory. The significant advantage of the presented method is multi-scale segmentation. In other words, this model identifies high crash road segments with different lengths and also it can recognize small segments within long segments. Applying the presented model into a real case for identifying 10-20 percent of high crash road segment showed an improvement of 25-38 percent in relative to the existing methods. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Development of an accident duration prediction model on the Korean Freeway Systems.

    PubMed

    Chung, Younshik

    2010-01-01

    Since duration prediction is one of the most important steps in an accident management process, there have been several approaches developed for modeling accident duration. This paper presents a model for the purpose of accident duration prediction based on accurately recorded and large accident dataset from the Korean Freeway Systems. To develop the duration prediction model, this study utilizes the log-logistic accelerated failure time (AFT) metric model and a 2-year accident duration dataset from 2006 to 2007. Specifically, the 2006 dataset is utilized to develop the prediction model and then, the 2007 dataset was employed to test the temporal transferability of the 2006 model. Although the duration prediction model has limitations such as large prediction error due to the individual differences of the accident treatment teams in terms of clearing similar accidents, the results from the 2006 model yielded a reasonable prediction based on the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) scale. Additionally, the results of the statistical test for temporal transferability indicated that the estimated parameters in the duration prediction model are stable over time. Thus, this temporal stability suggests that the model may have potential to be used as a basis for making rational diversion and dispatching decisions in the event of an accident. Ultimately, such information will beneficially help in mitigating traffic congestion due to accidents.

  14. Modeling Increased Complexity and the Reliance on Automation: FLightdeck Automation Problems (FLAP) Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ancel, Ersin; Shih, Ann T.

    2014-01-01

    This paper highlights the development of a model that is focused on the safety issue of increasing complexity and reliance on automation systems in transport category aircraft. Recent statistics show an increase in mishaps related to manual handling and automation errors due to pilot complacency and over-reliance on automation, loss of situational awareness, automation system failures and/or pilot deficiencies. Consequently, the aircraft can enter a state outside the flight envelope and/or air traffic safety margins which potentially can lead to loss-of-control (LOC), controlled-flight-into-terrain (CFIT), or runway excursion/confusion accidents, etc. The goal of this modeling effort is to provide NASA's Aviation Safety Program (AvSP) with a platform capable of assessing the impacts of AvSP technologies and products towards reducing the relative risk of automation related accidents and incidents. In order to do so, a generic framework, capable of mapping both latent and active causal factors leading to automation errors, is developed. Next, the framework is converted into a Bayesian Belief Network model and populated with data gathered from Subject Matter Experts (SMEs). With the insertion of technologies and products, the model provides individual and collective risk reduction acquired by technologies and methodologies developed within AvSP.

  15. As assessment of power system vulnerability to release of carbon fibers during commercial aviation accidents

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Larocque, G. R.

    1980-01-01

    The vulnerability of a power distribution system in Bedford and Lexington, Massachusetts to power outages as a result of exposure to carbon fibers released in a commercial aviation accident in 1993 was examined. Possible crash scenarios at Logan Airport based on current operational data and estimated carbon fiber usage levels were used to predict exposure levels and occurrence probabilities. The analysis predicts a mean time between carbon fiber induced power outages of 2300 years with an expected annual consequence of 0.7 persons losing power. In comparison to historical outage data for the system, this represents a 0.007% increase in outage rate and 0.07% increase in consequence.

  16. Denver UASI All-Hazards Regional Recovery Framework. Version 1.1

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2012-10-31

    Consequences of the Chernobyl Accident and Their Remediation: Twenty Years of Experience, 2006, at http://www-pub.iaea.org/mtcd/publications/pdf...pub1239_web.pdf 22 This report presents the findings and recommendations of the Chernobyl Forum concerning the environmental effects of the... Chernobyl accident. Recovery Criteria and Guidelines Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment. Hazardous Materials and Waste Management

  17. 30 years After the Chernobyl Nuclear Accident: Time for Reflection and Re-evaluation of Current Disaster Preparedness Plans.

    PubMed

    Zablotska, Lydia B

    2016-06-01

    It has been 30 years since the worst accident in the history of the nuclear era occurred at the Chernobyl power plant in Ukraine close to densely populated urban areas. To date, epidemiological studies reported increased long-term risks of leukemia, cardiovascular diseases, and cataracts among cleanup workers and of thyroid cancer and non-malignant diseases in those exposed as children and adolescents. Mental health effects were the most significant public health consequence of the accident in the three most contaminated countries of Ukraine, Belarus, and the Russian Federation. Timely and clear communication with affected populations emerged as one of the main lessons in the aftermath of the Chernobyl nuclear accident.

  18. A Review of Criticality Accidents 2000 Revision

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Thomas P. McLaughlin; Shean P. Monahan; Norman L. Pruvost

    Criticality accidents and the characteristics of prompt power excursions are discussed. Sixty accidental power excursions are reviewed. Sufficient detail is provided to enable the reader to understand the physical situation, the chemistry and material flow, and when available the administrative setting leading up to the time of the accident. Information on the power history, energy release, consequences, and causes are also included when available. For those accidents that occurred in process plants, two new sections have been included in this revision. The first is an analysis and summary of the physical and neutronic features of the chain reacting systems. Themore » second is a compilation of observations and lessons learned. Excursions associated with large power reactors are not included in this report.« less

  19. Laser-heating and Radiance Spectrometry for the Study of Nuclear Materials in Conditions Simulating a Nuclear Power Plant Accident

    PubMed Central

    Manara, Dario; Soldi, Luca; Mastromarino, Sara; Boboridis, Kostantinos; Robba, Davide; Vlahovic, Luka; Konings, Rudy

    2017-01-01

    Major and severe accidents have occurred three times in nuclear power plants (NPPs), at Three Mile Island (USA, 1979), Chernobyl (former USSR, 1986) and Fukushima (Japan, 2011). Research on the causes, dynamics, and consequences of these mishaps has been performed in a few laboratories worldwide in the last three decades. Common goals of such research activities are: the prevention of these kinds of accidents, both in existing and potential new nuclear power plants; the minimization of their eventual consequences; and ultimately, a full understanding of the real risks connected with NPPs. At the European Commission Joint Research Centre's Institute for Transuranium Elements, a laser-heating and fast radiance spectro-pyrometry facility is used for the laboratory simulation, on a small scale, of NPP core meltdown, the most common type of severe accident (SA) that can occur in a nuclear reactor as a consequence of a failure of the cooling system. This simulation tool permits fast and effective high-temperature measurements on real nuclear materials, such as plutonium and minor actinide-containing fission fuel samples. In this respect, and in its capability to produce large amount of data concerning materials under extreme conditions, the current experimental approach is certainly unique. For current and future concepts of NPP, example results are presented on the melting behavior of some different types of nuclear fuels: uranium-plutonium oxides, carbides, and nitrides. Results on the high-temperature interaction of oxide fuels with containment materials are also briefly shown. PMID:29286382

  20. Advocating for Health and Safety through Social Media--Linked In!

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Carreon, Amie Klein; Peoples, JaNiene; Shipley, Meagan; Wilson, Kelly; Ramirez, Cameron

    2016-01-01

    Excessive drinking among college students, which is influenced by an array of factors ranging from campus norms to membership in student organizations, has been linked to consequences including motor vehicle accidents, cognitive deficits, arrests, overdoses, assaults, and death. Considering the severity of consequences related to drinking,…

  1. Environmental Aftermath of the Radiation Accident at Tomsk-7

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Porfiriev, Boris N.; Porfiriev, Boris N.

    1996-01-01

    An analysis is presented of the environmental effects of the most serious radiation accident recorded after Chernobyl, which occurred in the formerly secret town of Tomsk-7 in Siberia, Russia, on 6, April 1993. Fortunately, it appears not to have become a major industrial crisis or disaster. The causes of the accident are described. It is argued that a mixture of both objective and subjective prerequisites, including specific human, organizational, and technological factors, were responsible for the explosion or directly facilitated it. The Tomsk-7 accident’s ecological, medical, social, and psychological consequences are discussed.

  2. Evacuation areas for transportation accidents involving propellant tank pressure bursts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Siewert, R. D.

    1972-01-01

    Evacuation areas are defined for those transportation accidents where volatile chemical propellant tanks are exposed to fire in the wreckage and eventually explode with consequent risks from fragments in surrounding populated areas. An evacuation area with a minimum radius of 600 m (2000 ft) is recommended to limit the statistical probability of fatality to one in 100 such accidents. The result was made possible by the derivation of a distribution function of distances reached by fragments from bursting chemical car tanks. Data concerning fragments was obtained from reports or tank car pressure bursts between 1958 and 1971.

  3. Industrial accidents triggered by lightning.

    PubMed

    Renni, Elisabetta; Krausmann, Elisabeth; Cozzani, Valerio

    2010-12-15

    Natural disasters can cause major accidents in chemical facilities where they can lead to the release of hazardous materials which in turn can result in fires, explosions or toxic dispersion. Lightning strikes are the most frequent cause of major accidents triggered by natural events. In order to contribute towards the development of a quantitative approach for assessing lightning risk at industrial facilities, lightning-triggered accident case histories were retrieved from the major industrial accident databases and analysed to extract information on types of vulnerable equipment, failure dynamics and damage states, as well as on the final consequences of the event. The most vulnerable category of equipment is storage tanks. Lightning damage is incurred by immediate ignition, electrical and electronic systems failure or structural damage with subsequent release. Toxic releases and tank fires tend to be the most common scenarios associated with lightning strikes. Oil, diesel and gasoline are the substances most frequently released during lightning-triggered Natech accidents. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Consequences of the radiation accident at the Mayak production association in 1957 (the 'Kyshtym Accident').

    PubMed

    Akleyev, A V; Krestinina, L Yu; Degteva, M O; Tolstykh, E I

    2017-09-01

    This paper presents an overview of the nuclear accident that occurred at the Mayak Production Association (PA) in the Russian Federation on 29 September 1957, often referred to as 'Kyshtym Accident', when 20 MCi (740 PBq) of radionuclides were released by a chemical explosion in a radioactive waste storage tank. 2 MCi (74 PBq) spread beyond the Mayak PA site to form the East Urals Radioactive Trace (EURT). The paper describes the accident and gives brief characteristics of the efficacy of the implemented protective measures that made it possible to considerably reduce doses to the exposed population. The paper also provides retrospective dosimetry estimates for the members of the EURT Cohort (EURTC) which comprises approximately 21 400 people. During the first two years after the accident a decrease in the group average leukocyte (mainly due to neutrophils and lymphocytes) and thrombocyte count was observed in the population. At later dates an increased excess relative risk of solid cancer incidence and mortality was found in the EURTC.

  5. Continuously improving safety of nuclear installations: An approach to be reinforced after the Fukushima accident

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Repussard, Jacques; Schwarz, Michel

    2012-05-01

    After the Three Mile Island accident in 1979 and the Chernobyl accident in 1986, the Fukushima accident shows that the probability of a core meltdown accident in an LWR (Light Water Reactor) has been largely underestimated. The consequences of such an accident are unacceptable: except in the case of TMI2 (Three Mile Island 2) large areas around the damaged plants are contaminated for decades and populations have to be relocated for long periods. This article presents the French approach which consists in improving continuously the safety of the Nuclear Power Plants (NPP) on the basis of lessons learned from operating experience and from the progress in R&D (Research and Development). It details the key role played by IRSN (Institut de radioprotection et de sûreté nucléaire), the French TSO (Technical and scientific Safety Organization), and shows how the Fukushima accident contributes to this approach in improving NPP robustness. It concludes on the necessity to keep on networking TSOs, to share knowledge as well as R&D resources, with the ultimate goal of enhancing and harmonizing nuclear safety worldwide.

  6. Economic consequences of aviation system disruptions: A reduced-form computable general equilibrium analysis

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Chen, Zhenhua; Rose, Adam Z.; Prager, Fynnwin

    The state of the art approach to economic consequence analysis (ECA) is computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling. However, such models contain thousands of equations and cannot readily be incorporated into computerized systems used by policy analysts to yield estimates of economic impacts of various types of transportation system failures due to natural hazards, human related attacks or technological accidents. This paper presents a reduced-form approach to simplify the analytical content of CGE models to make them more transparent and enhance their utilization potential. The reduced-form CGE analysis is conducted by first running simulations one hundred times, varying key parameters, suchmore » as magnitude of the initial shock, duration, location, remediation, and resilience, according to a Latin Hypercube sampling procedure. Statistical analysis is then applied to the “synthetic data” results in the form of both ordinary least squares and quantile regression. The analysis yields linear equations that are incorporated into a computerized system and utilized along with Monte Carlo simulation methods for propagating uncertainties in economic consequences. Although our demonstration and discussion focuses on aviation system disruptions caused by terrorist attacks, the approach can be applied to a broad range of threat scenarios.« less

  7. Tornado wind-loading requirements based on risk assessment techniques

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Deobald, T.L.; Coles, G.A.; Smith, G.L.

    Regulations require that nuclear power plants be protected from tornado winds. If struck by a tornado, a plant must be capable of safely shutting down and removing decay heat. Probabilistic techniques are used to show that risk to the public from the US Department of Energy (DOE) SP-100 reactor is acceptable without tornado hardening parts of the secondary system. Relaxed requirements for design wind loadings will result in significant cost savings. To demonstrate an acceptable level of risk, this document examines tornado-initiated accidents. The two tornado-initiated accidents examined in detail are loss of cooling resulting in core damage and lossmore » of secondary system boundary integrity leading to sodium release. Loss of core cooling is analyzed using fault/event tree models. Loss of secondary system boundary integrity is analyzed by comparing the consequences to acceptance criteria for the release of radioactive material or alkali metal aerosol. 4 refs., 4 figs.« less

  8. Analysis of construction accidents in Turkey and responsible parties.

    PubMed

    Gürcanli, G Emre; Müngen, Uğur

    2013-01-01

    Construction is one of the world's biggest industry that includes jobs as diverse as building, civil engineering, demolition, renovation, repair and maintenance. Construction workers are exposed to a wide variety of hazards. This study analyzes 1,117 expert witness reports which were submitted to criminal and labour courts. These reports are from all regions of the country and cover the period 1972-2008. Accidents were classified by the consequence of the incident, time and main causes of the accident, construction type, occupation of the victim, activity at time of the accident and party responsible for the accident. Falls (54.1%), struck by thrown/falling object (12.9%), structural collapses (9.9%) and electrocutions (7.5%) rank first four places. The accidents were most likely between the hours 15:00 and 17:00 (22.6%), 10:00-12:00 (18.7%) and just after the lunchtime (9.9%). Additionally, the most common accidents were further divided into sub-types. Expert-witness assessments were used to identify the parties at fault and what acts of negligence typically lead to accidents. Nearly two thirds of the faulty and negligent acts are carried out by the employers and employees are responsible for almost one third of all cases.

  9. Precursors of dangerous substances formed in the loss of control of chemical systems.

    PubMed

    Cozzani, V; Zanelli, S

    1999-03-01

    Article 2 of Directive 96/82/EC on the control of major accident hazards caused by dangerous substances requires to consider also the hazards due to the dangerous substances "which it is believed may be generated during loss of control of an industrial chemical process", although no generally accepted guidelines are available for the identification of these substances. In the present study, the accidents involving the unwanted formation of dangerous substances as a consequence of the loss of control of chemical systems were investigated. A specifically developed database was used, containing data on more than 400 of these accidents and on the substances involved. The hazardous substances formed in the accidents and the precursors of these substances were identified. The influence of accident characteristics on the substances formed was investigated. In the context of the application of Directive 96/82/EC, an accident severity index and a hazard rating of the precursors of dangerous substances formed in the accidents were proposed. A lumping approach was used in order to develop schemes for the preliminary identification of substances that may be formed in the loss of control of chemical system. The results of accident analysis were used to test the schemes developed.

  10. Global risk of radioactive fallout after nuclear reactor accidents

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lelieveld, J.; Kunkel, D.; Lawrence, M. G.

    2011-11-01

    Reactor core meltdowns of nuclear power plants are rare, yet the consequences are catastrophic. But what is meant by "rare"? And what can be learned from the Chernobyl and Fukushima incidents? Here we assess the risk of exposure to radioactivity due to atmospheric dispersion of gases and particles following severe nuclear accidents, using particulate 137Cs and gaseous 131I as proxies for the fallout. It appears that previously the occurrence of major accidents and the risks of radioactive contamination have been underestimated. Using a global model of the atmosphere we compute that on average, in the event of a core melt of any nuclear power plant worldwide, more than 90% of emitted 137Cs would be transported beyond 50km and about 50% beyond 1000 km distance. This corroborates that such accidents have large-scale and trans-boundary impacts. Although the emission strengths and atmospheric removal processes of 137Cs and 131I are quite different, the radioactive contamination patterns over land and the human deposition exposure are computed to be similar. High human exposure risks occur around reactors in densely populated regions, notably in southern Asia where a core melt can subject 55 million people to radioactive contamination. The recent decision by Germany to phase out its nuclear reactors will reduce the national risk, though a large risk will still remain from the reactors in neighbouring countries.

  11. Global risk of radioactive fallout after nuclear reactor accidents

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kunkel, D.; Lelieveld, J.; Lawrence, M. G.

    2012-04-01

    Reactor core meltdowns of nuclear power plants are rare, yet the consequences are catastrophic. But what is meant by "rare"? And what can be learned from the Chernobyl and Fukushima incidents? Here we assess the risk of exposure to radioactivity due to atmospheric dispersion of gases and particles following severe nuclear accidents, using particulate 137Cs and gaseous 131I as proxies for the fallout. It appears that previously the occurrence of major accidents and the risks of radioactive contamination have been underestimated. Using a global model of the atmosphere we compute that on average, in the event of a core melt of any nuclear power plant worldwide, more than 90 % of emitted 137Cs would be transported beyond 50 km and about 50 % beyond 1000 km distance. This corroborates that such accidents have large-scale and trans-boundary impacts. Although the emission strengths and atmospheric removal processes of 137Cs and 131I are quite different, the radioactive contamination patterns over land and the human deposition exposure are computed to be similar. High human exposure risks occur around reactors in densely populated regions, notably in southern Asia where a core melt can subject 55 million people to radioactive contamination. The recent decision by Germany to phase out its nuclear reactors will reduce the national risk, though a large risk will still remain from the reactors in neighbouring countries.

  12. Investigations on optimization of accident management measures following a station blackout accident in a VVER-1000 pressurized water reactor

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Tusheva, P.; Schaefer, F.; Kliem, S.

    2012-07-01

    The reactor safety issues are of primary importance for preserving the health of the population and ensuring no release of radioactivity and fission products into the environment. A part of the nuclear research focuses on improvement of the safety of existing nuclear power plants. Studies, research and efforts are a continuing process at improving the safety and reliability of existing and newly developed nuclear power plants at prevention of a core melt accident. Station blackout (loss of AC power supply) is one of the dominant accidents taken into consideration at performing accident analysis. In case of multiple failures of safetymore » systems it leads to a severe accident. To prevent an accident to turn into a severe one or to mitigate the consequences, accident management measures must be performed. The present paper outlines possibilities for application and optimization of accident management measures following a station blackout accident. Assessed is the behaviour of the nuclear power plant during a station blackout accident without accident management measures and with application of primary/secondary side oriented accident management measures. Discussed are the possibilities for operators ' intervention and the influence of the performed accident management measures on the course of the accident. Special attention has been paid to the effectiveness of the passive feeding and physical phenomena having an influence on the system behaviour. The performed simulations show that the effectiveness of the secondary side feeding procedure can be limited due to an early evaporation or flashing effects in the feed water system. The analyzed cases show that the effectiveness of the accident management measures strongly depends on the initiation criteria applied for depressurization of the reactor coolant system. (authors)« less

  13. Analyzing the causation of a railway accident based on a complex network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ma, Xin; Li, Ke-Ping; Luo, Zi-Yan; Zhou, Jin

    2014-02-01

    In this paper, a new model is constructed for the causation analysis of railway accident based on the complex network theory. In the model, the nodes are defined as various manifest or latent accident causal factors. By employing the complex network theory, especially its statistical indicators, the railway accident as well as its key causations can be analyzed from the overall perspective. As a case, the “7.23” China—Yongwen railway accident is illustrated based on this model. The results show that the inspection of signals and the checking of line conditions before trains run played an important role in this railway accident. In conclusion, the constructed model gives a theoretical clue for railway accident prediction and, hence, greatly reduces the occurrence of railway accidents.

  14. A Formal Methods Approach to the Analysis of Mode Confusion

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Butler, Ricky W.; Miller, Steven P.; Potts, James N.; Carreno, Victor A.

    2004-01-01

    The goal of the new NASA Aviation Safety Program (AvSP) is to reduce the civil aviation fatal accident rate by 80% in ten years and 90% in twenty years. This program is being driven by the accident data with a focus on the most recent history. Pilot error is the most commonly cited cause for fatal accidents (up to 70%) and obviously must be given major consideration in this program. While the greatest source of pilot error is the loss of situation awareness , mode confusion is increasingly becoming a major contributor as well. The January 30, 1995 issue of Aviation Week lists 184 incidents and accidents involving mode awareness including the Bangalore A320 crash 2/14/90, the Strasbourg A320 crash 1/20/92, the Mulhouse-Habsheim A320 crash 6/26/88, and the Toulouse A330 crash 6/30/94. These incidents and accidents reveal that pilots sometimes become confused about what the cockpit automation is doing. Consequently, human factors research is an obvious investment area. However, even a cursory look at the accident data reveals that the mode confusion problem is much deeper than just training deficiencies and a lack of human-oriented design. This is readily acknowledged by human factors experts. It seems that further progress in human factors must come through a deeper scrutiny of the internals of the automation. It is in this arena that formal methods can contribute. Formal methods refers to the use of techniques from logic and discrete mathematics in the specification, design, and verification of computer systems, both hardware and software. The fundamental goal of formal methods is to capture requirements, designs and implementations in a mathematically based model that can be analyzed in a rigorous manner. Research in formal methods is aimed at automating this analysis as much as possible. By capturing the internal behavior of a flight deck in a rigorous and detailed formal model, the dark corners of a design can be analyzed. This paper will explore how formal models and analyses can be used to help eliminate mode confusion from flight deck designs and at the same time increase our confidence in the safety of the implementation. The paper is based upon interim results from a new project involving NASA Langley and Rockwell Collins in applying formal methods to a realistic business jet Flight Guidance System (FGS).

  15. Factors correlated with traffic accidents as a basis for evaluating Advanced Driver Assistance Systems.

    PubMed

    Staubach, Maria

    2009-09-01

    This study aims to identify factors which influence and cause errors in traffic accidents and to use these as a basis for information to guide the application and design of driver assistance systems. A total of 474 accidents were examined in depth for this study by means of a psychological survey, data from accident reports, and technical reconstruction information. An error analysis was subsequently carried out, taking into account the driver, environment, and vehicle sub-systems. Results showed that all accidents were influenced by errors as a consequence of distraction and reduced activity. For crossroad accidents, there were further errors resulting from sight obstruction, masked stimuli, focus errors, and law infringements. Lane departure crashes were additionally caused by errors as a result of masked stimuli, law infringements, expectation errors as well as objective and action slips, while same direction accidents occurred additionally because of focus errors, expectation errors, and objective and action slips. Most accidents were influenced by multiple factors. There is a safety potential for Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS), which support the driver in information assimilation and help to avoid distraction and reduced activity. The design of the ADAS is dependent on the specific influencing factors of the accident type.

  16. A cascading failure model for analyzing railway accident causation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Jin-Tao; Li, Ke-Ping

    2018-01-01

    In this paper, a new cascading failure model is proposed for quantitatively analyzing the railway accident causation. In the model, the loads of nodes are redistributed according to the strength of the causal relationships between the nodes. By analyzing the actual situation of the existing prevention measures, a critical threshold of the load parameter in the model is obtained. To verify the effectiveness of the proposed cascading model, simulation experiments of a train collision accident are performed. The results show that the cascading failure model can describe the cascading process of the railway accident more accurately than the previous models, and can quantitatively analyze the sensitivities and the influence of the causes. In conclusion, this model can assist us to reveal the latent rules of accident causation to reduce the occurrence of railway accidents.

  17. The Development of Improved Risk Assessment Methods for Use in Industrial Environmental Management Systems

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Manners, T.K.

    2006-07-01

    Industrial sites that store or use chemicals are controlled in the UK under the COMAH (Control Of Major Accident Hazards) Regulations 1999 [1] based on their holdings of 'Dangerous Substances'. The COMAH Regulations [1] came into force in 1999 and are the UK's response to the European Union's Seveso II Directive. The purpose of these Regulations [1] is to: - Identify Major Accident Hazards (MAH); - Ensure that control measures are in place to prevent a MAH; - Ensure that mitigatory measures are in place to limit effects if MAH do occur. The UK's Health and Safety Executive (HSE), andmore » the Environment Agency (EA) jointly enforce the Regulations [1]. The fundamental requirement is given in the statement below, which is taken directly from the Regulations [1]. 'Every operator shall take all measures necessary to prevent major accidents and limit their consequences to persons and the environment'. This paper describes the development of a six-step screening methodology designed to identify Major Accidents To The Environment (MATTE) and improved consequence definitions that can be used in risk matrices to define the severity of an environmental fault. The method has been designed to be compatible with existing Environmental Management Systems (EMS) used in the chemical and nuclear industry. (authors)« less

  18. Reducing the risk of the collapse of the soil by macro system modeling the slopes stability of the quarries

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klimova, E. V.; Semeykin, A. Yu

    2018-01-01

    The urgent task of modern production is to reduce the risks of man-made disasters and, as a consequence, preserve the life and health of workers, material properties and natural environment. In the mining industry, one of the reasons for the high level of injuries and accidents is the collapse of the soil. Macro system modelling of slopes stability of the quarries is based on the compliance with the conditions of physical and mathematical correctness of the application of the model of a continuous medium. This type of modelling allows to choose the safe parameters of the slopes of the quarries and to reduce the risk of collapse of the soil.

  19. Expanding pedestrian injury risk to the body region level: how to model passive safety systems in pedestrian injury risk functions.

    PubMed

    Niebuhr, Tobias; Junge, Mirko; Achmus, Stefanie

    2015-01-01

    Assessment of the effectiveness of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) plays a crucial role in accident research. A common way to evaluate the effectiveness of new systems is to determine the potentials for injury severity reduction. Because injury risk functions describe the probability of an injury of a given severity conditional on a technical accident severity (closing speed, delta V, barrier equivalent speed, etc.), they are predestined for such evaluations. Recent work has stated an approach on how to model the pedestrian injury risk in pedestrian-to-passenger car accidents as a family of functions. This approach gave explicit and easily interpretable formulae for the injury risk conditional on the closing speed of the car. These results are extended to injury risk functions for pedestrian body regions. Starting with a double-checked German In-depth Accident Study (GIDAS) pedestrian-to-car accident data set (N = 444) and a functional-anatomical definition of the body regions, investigations on the influence of specific body regions on the overall injury severity will be presented. As the measure of injury severity, the ISSx, a rescaled version of the well-known Injury Severity Score (ISS), was used. Though traditional ISS is computed by summation of the squares of the 3 most severe injured body regions, ISSx is computed by the summation of the exponentials of the Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) severities of the 3 most severely injured body regions. The exponentials used are scaled to fit the ISS range of values between 0 and 75. Three body regions (head/face/neck, thorax, hip/legs) clearly dominated abdominal and upper extremity injuries; that is, the latter 2 body regions had no influence at all on the overall injury risk over the range of technical accident severities. Thus, the ISSx is well described by use of the injury codes from the same body regions for any pedestrian injury severity. As a mathematical consequence, the ISSx becomes explicitly decomposable into the 3 body regions and so are the risk functions as body region-specific risk functions. The risk functions for each body region are stated explicitly for different injury severity levels and compared to the real-world accident data. The body region-specific risk functions can then be used to model the effect of improved passive safety systems. These modified body region-specific injury risk functions are aggregated to a new pedestrian injury risk function. Passive safety systems can therefore be modeled in injury risk functions for the first time. A short example on how the results can be used for assessing the effectiveness of new driver assistance systems concludes the article.

  20. Impaired driving performance in shiftworkers: the role of the circadian system in a multifactorial model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Richardson, G. S.; Miner, J. D.; Czeisler, C. A.

    1989-01-01

    A substantial and growing percentage of the U.S. work force now works on a rotating shift schedule. The repeated changes in sleep-wake, meal and work times inherent in such schedules conflict with the dictates of the internal biological clock and have adverse consequences for the health of the shiftworker population. An important consequence of this conflict is impaired performance, both on and off the job, as indexed by the increased incidence of motor vehicle accidents in shift workers. In this paper we report the results of a survey administered to rotating shift and straight day workers at a manufacturing plant in the eastern U.S. This survey documents an increased incidence of motor vehicle accidents or "near misses" in which sleepiness was implicated as a cause by the respondent. Complaints of poor sleep and increased sleepiness were also significantly more common in shiftworkers than day workers. Last, shiftworkers reported higher caffeine and alcohol consumption, and were more likely to use alcohol as a sleep aid. Although causal links cannot be established using these associative observations alone, previously reported experience with alteration of shift schedules, improvement of levels of alertness, and reduction in adverse performance outcomes corroborate the possibility of a causal link and suggest potential interventions.

  1. Proceedings of the 21st DOE/NRC Nuclear Air Cleaning Conference; Sessions 1--8

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    First, M.W.

    1991-02-01

    Separate abstracts have been prepared for the papers presented at the meeting on nuclear facility air cleaning technology in the following specific areas of interest: air cleaning technologies for the management and disposal of radioactive wastes; Canadian waste management program; radiological health effects models for nuclear power plant accident consequence analysis; filter testing; US standard codes on nuclear air and gas treatment; European community nuclear codes and standards; chemical processing off-gas cleaning; incineration and vitrification; adsorbents; nuclear codes and standards; mathematical modeling techniques; filter technology; safety; containment system venting; and nuclear air cleaning programs around the world. (MB)

  2. Accident epidemiology and the U.S. chemical industry: accident history and worst-case data from RMP*Info.

    PubMed

    Kleindorfer, Paul R; Belke, James C; Elliott, Michael R; Lee, Kiwan; Lowe, Robert A; Feldman, Harold I

    2003-10-01

    This article reports on the data collected on one of the most ambitious government-sponsored environmental data acquisition projects of all time, the Risk Management Plan (RMP) data collected under section 112(r) of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990. This RMP Rule 112(r) was triggered by the Bhopal accident in 1984 and led to the requirement that each qualifying facility develop and file with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency a Risk Management Plan (RMP) as well as accident history data for the five-year period preceding the filing of the RMP. These data were collected in 1999-2001 on more than 15,000 facilities in the United States that store or use listed toxic or flammable chemicals believed to be a hazard to the environment or to human health of facility employees or off-site residents of host communities. The resulting database, RMP*Info, has become a key resource for regulators and researchers concerned with the frequency and severity of accidents, and the underlying facility-specific factors that are statistically associated with accident and injury rates. This article analyzes which facilities actually filed under the Rule and presents results on accident frequencies and severities available from the RMP*Info database. This article also presents summaries of related results from RMP*Info on Offsite Consequence Analysis (OCA), an analytical estimate of the potential consequences of hypothetical worst-case and alternative accidental releases on the public and environment around the facility. The OCA data have become a key input in the evaluation of site security assessment and mitigation policies for both government planners as well as facility managers and their insurers. Following the survey of the RMP*Info data, we discuss the rich set of policy decisions that may be informed by research based on these data.

  3. Did liberalising bar hours decrease traffic accidents?

    PubMed

    Green, Colin P; Heywood, John S; Navarro, Maria

    2014-05-01

    Legal bar closing times in England and Wales have historically been early and uniform. Recent legislation liberalised closing times with the object of reducing social problems thought associated with drinking to "beat the clock." Indeed, using both difference in difference and synthetic control approaches we show that one consequence of this liberalisation was a decrease in traffic accidents. This decrease is heavily concentrated among younger drivers. Moreover, we provide evidence that the effect was most pronounced in the hours of the week directly affected by the liberalisation: late nights and early mornings on weekends. This evidence survives a series of robustness checks and suggests at least one socially positive consequence of extending bar hours. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Inter-comparison of dynamic models for radionuclide transfer to marine biota in a Fukushima accident scenario

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Vives i Batlle, J.; Beresford, N. A.; Beaugelin-Seiller, K.

    We report an inter-comparison of eight models designed to predict the radiological exposure of radionuclides in marine biota. The models were required to simulate dynamically the uptake and turnover of radionuclides by marine organisms. Model predictions of radionuclide uptake and turnover using kinetic calculations based on biological half-life (TB1/2) and/or more complex metabolic modelling approaches were used to predict activity concentrations and, consequently, dose rates of 90Sr, 131I and 137Cs to fish, crustaceans, macroalgae and molluscs under circumstances where the water concentrations are changing with time. For comparison, the ERICA Tool, a model commonly used in environmental assessment, and whichmore » uses equilibrium concentration ratios, was also used. As input to the models we used hydrodynamic forecasts of water and sediment activity concentrations using a simulated scenario reflecting the Fukushima accident releases. Although model variability is important, the intercomparison gives logical results, in that the dynamic models predict consistently a pattern of delayed rise of activity concentration in biota and slow decline instead of the instantaneous equilibrium with the activity concentration in seawater predicted by the ERICA Tool. The differences between ERICA and the dynamic models increase the shorter the TB1/2 becomes; however, there is significant variability between models, underpinned by parameter and methodological differences between them. The need to validate the dynamic models used in this intercomparison has been highlighted, particularly in regards to optimisation of the model biokinetic parameters.« less

  5. Mapping Natech risk due to earthquakes using RAPID-N

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Girgin, Serkan; Krausmann, Elisabeth

    2013-04-01

    Natural hazard-triggered technological accidents (so-called Natech accidents) at hazardous installations are an emerging risk with possibly serious consequences due to the potential for release of hazardous materials, fires or explosions. For the reduction of Natech risk, one of the highest priority needs is the identification of Natech-prone areas and the systematic assessment of Natech risks. With hardly any Natech risk maps existing within the EU the European Commission's Joint Research Centre has developed a Natech risk analysis and mapping tool called RAPID-N, that estimates the overall risk of natural-hazard impact to industrial installations and its possible consequences. The results are presented as risk summary reports and interactive risk maps which can be used for decision making. Currently, RAPID-N focuses on Natech risk due to earthquakes at industrial installations. However, it will be extended to also analyse and map Natech risk due to floods in the near future. The RAPID-N methodology is based on the estimation of on-site natural hazard parameters, use of fragility curves to determine damage probabilities of plant units for various damage states, and the calculation of spatial extent, severity, and probability of Natech events potentially triggered by the natural hazard. The methodology was implemented as a web-based risk assessment and mapping software tool which allows easy data entry, rapid local or regional risk assessment and mapping. RAPID-N features an innovative property estimation framework to calculate on-site natural hazard parameters, industrial plant and plant unit characteristics, and hazardous substance properties. Custom damage states and fragility curves can be defined for different types of plant units. Conditional relationships can be specified between damage states and Natech risk states, which describe probable Natech event scenarios. Natech consequences are assessed using a custom implementation of U.S. EPA's Risk Management Program (RMP) Guidance for Offsite Consequence Analysis methodology. This custom implementation is based on the property estimation framework and allows the easy modification of model parameters and the substitution of equations with alternatives. RAPID-N can be applied at different stages of the Natech risk management process: It allows on the one hand the analysis of hypothetical Natech scenarios to prevent or prepare for a Natech accident by supporting land-use and emergency planning. On the other hand, once a natural disaster occurs RAPID-N can be used for rapidly locating facilities with potential Natech accident damage based on actual natural-hazard information. This provides a means to warn the population in the vicinity of the facilities in a timely manner. This presentation will introduce the specific features of RAPID-N and show the use of the tool by application to a case-study area.

  6. "Going solid": a model of system dynamics and consequences for patient safety

    PubMed Central

    Cook, R; Rasmussen, J

    2005-01-01

    

 Rather than being a static property of hospitals and other healthcare facilities, safety is dynamic and often on short time scales. In the past most healthcare delivery systems were loosely coupled—that is, activities and conditions in one part of the system had only limited effect on those elsewhere. Loose coupling allowed the system to buffer many conditions such as short term surges in demand. Modern management techniques and information systems have allowed facilities to reduce inefficiencies in operation. One side effect is the loss of buffers that previously accommodated demand surges. As a result, situations occur in which activities in one area of the hospital become critically dependent on seemingly insignificant events in seemingly distant areas. This tight coupling condition is called "going solid". Rasmussen's dynamic model of risk and safety can be used to formulate a model of patient safety dynamics that includes "going solid" and its consequences. Because the model addresses the dynamic aspects of safety, it is particularly suited to understanding current conditions in modern healthcare delivery and the way these conditions may lead to accidents. PMID:15805459

  7. 'Systemic Failures' and 'Human Error' in Canadian TSB Aviation Reports Between 1996 and 2002

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Holloway, C. M.; Johnson, C. W.

    2004-01-01

    This paper describes the results of an independent analysis of the primary and contributory causes of aviation accidents in Canada between 1996 and 2003. The purpose of the study was to assess the comparative frequency of a range of causal factors in the reporting of these adverse events. Our results suggest that the majority of these high consequence accidents were attributed to human error. A large number of reports also mentioned wider systemic issues, including the managerial and regulatory context of aviation operations. These issues are more likely to appear as contributory rather than primary causes in this set of accident reports.

  8. RELEASE OF DRIED RADIOACTIVE WASTE MATERIALS TECHNICAL BASIS DOCUMENT

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    KOZLOWSKI, S.D.

    2007-05-30

    This technical basis document was developed to support RPP-23429, Preliminary Documented Safety Analysis for the Demonstration Bulk Vitrification System (PDSA) and RPP-23479, Preliminary Documented Safety Analysis for the Contact-Handled Transuranic Mixed (CH-TRUM) Waste Facility. The main document describes the risk binning process and the technical basis for assigning risk bins to the representative accidents involving the release of dried radioactive waste materials from the Demonstration Bulk Vitrification System (DBVS) and to the associated represented hazardous conditions. Appendices D through F provide the technical basis for assigning risk bins to the representative dried waste release accident and associated represented hazardous conditionsmore » for the Contact-Handled Transuranic Mixed (CH-TRUM) Waste Packaging Unit (WPU). The risk binning process uses an evaluation of the frequency and consequence of a given representative accident or represented hazardous condition to determine the need for safety structures, systems, and components (SSC) and technical safety requirement (TSR)-level controls. A representative accident or a represented hazardous condition is assigned to a risk bin based on the potential radiological and toxicological consequences to the public and the collocated worker. Note that the risk binning process is not applied to facility workers because credible hazardous conditions with the potential for significant facility worker consequences are considered for safety-significant SSCs and/or TSR-level controls regardless of their estimated frequency. The controls for protection of the facility workers are described in RPP-23429 and RPP-23479. Determination of the need for safety-class SSCs was performed in accordance with DOE-STD-3009-94, Preparation Guide for US. Department of Energy Nonreactor Nuclear Facility Documented Safety Analyses, as described below.« less

  9. Mental health consequences of the Chernobyl disaster.

    PubMed

    Bromet, Evelyn J

    2012-03-01

    The psychosocial consequences of disasters have been studied for more than 100 years. The most common mental health consequences are depression, anxiety, post-traumatic stress disorder, medically unexplained somatic symptoms, and stigma. The excess morbidity rate of psychiatric disorders in the first year after a disaster is in the order of 20%. Disasters involving radiation are particularly pernicious because the exposure is invisible and universally dreaded, and can pose a long-term threat to health. After the Chernobyl disaster, studies of clean-up workers (liquidators) and adults from contaminated areas found a two-fold increase in post-traumatic stress and other mood and anxiety disorders and significantly poorer subjective ratings of health. Among liquidators, the most important risk factor was severity of exposure. In general population samples, the major risk factor was perceived exposure to harmful levels of radiation. These findings are consistent with results from A-bomb survivors and populations studied after the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant accident. With regard to children, apart from findings from ecological studies that lack direct data on radiation or other teratologic exposures and local studies in Kiev, the epidemiologic evidence suggests that neither radiation exposure nor the stress of growing up in the shadow of the accident was associated with emotional disorders, cognitive dysfunction, or impaired academic performance. Thus, based on the studies of adults, the Chernobyl Forum concluded that mental health was the largest public health problem unleashed by the accident. Since mental health is a leading cause of disability, physical morbidity, and mortality, health monitoring after radiation accidents like Fukushima should include standard measures of well-being. Moreover, given the comorbidity of mental and physical health, the findings support the value of training non-psychiatrist physicians in recognizing and treating common mental health problems like depression in Fukushima patients.

  10. Health risks of energy systems.

    PubMed

    Krewitt, W; Hurley, F; Trukenmüller, A; Friedrich, R

    1998-08-01

    Health risks from fossil, renewable and nuclear reference energy systems are estimated following a detailed impact pathway approach. Using a set of appropriate air quality models and exposure-effect functions derived from the recent epidemiological literature, a methodological framework for risk assessment has been established and consistently applied across the different energy systems, including the analysis of consequences from a major nuclear accident. A wide range of health impacts resulting from increased air pollution and ionizing radiation is quantified, and the transferability of results derived from specific power plants to a more general context is discussed.

  11. The development and evaluation of accident predictive models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maleck, T. L.

    1980-12-01

    A mathematical model that will predict the incremental change in the dependent variables (accident types) resulting from changes in the independent variables is developed. The end product is a tool for estimating the expected number and type of accidents for a given highway segment. The data segments (accidents) are separated in exclusive groups via a branching process and variance is further reduced using stepwise multiple regression. The standard error of the estimate is calculated for each model. The dependent variables are the frequency, density, and rate of 18 types of accidents among the independent variables are: district, county, highway geometry, land use, type of zone, speed limit, signal code, type of intersection, number of intersection legs, number of turn lanes, left-turn control, all-red interval, average daily traffic, and outlier code. Models for nonintersectional accidents did not fit nor validate as well as models for intersectional accidents.

  12. Analysis of Construction Accidents in Turkey and Responsible Parties

    PubMed Central

    GÜRCANLI, G. Emre; MÜNGEN, Uğur

    2013-01-01

    Construction is one of the world’s biggest industry that includes jobs as diverse as building, civil engineering, demolition, renovation, repair and maintenance. Construction workers are exposed to a wide variety of hazards. This study analyzes 1,117 expert witness reports which were submitted to criminal and labour courts. These reports are from all regions of the country and cover the period 1972–2008. Accidents were classified by the consequence of the incident, time and main causes of the accident, construction type, occupation of the victim, activity at time of the accident and party responsible for the accident. Falls (54.1%), struck by thrown/falling object (12.9%), structural collapses (9.9%) and electrocutions (7.5%) rank first four places. The accidents were most likely between the hours 15:00 and 17:00 (22.6%), 10:00–12:00 (18.7%) and just after the lunchtime (9.9%). Additionally, the most common accidents were further divided into sub-types. Expert-witness assessments were used to identify the parties at fault and what acts of negligence typically lead to accidents. Nearly two thirds of the faulty and negligent acts are carried out by the employers and employees are responsible for almost one third of all cases. PMID:24077446

  13. Cloud diagnosis impact on deposition modelling applied to the Fukushima accident

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Quérel, Arnaud; Quélo, Denis; Roustan, Yelva; Mathieu, Anne

    2017-04-01

    The accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant in Japan in March 2011 resulted in the release of several hundred PBq of activity into the environment. Most of the radioactivity was released in a time period of about 40 days. Radioactivity was dispersed in the atmosphere and the ocean and subsequently traces of radionuclides were detected all over Japan. At the Fukushima airport for instance, a deposit as large as 36 kBq/m2 of Cs-137 was measured resulting of an atmospheric deposition of the plume. Both dry and wet deposition were probably involved since a raining event occurred on the 15th of March when the plume was passing nearby. The accident scenario have given rise to a number of scientific investigations. Atmospheric deposition, for example, was studied by utilizing atmospheric transport models. In atmospheric transport models, some parameters, such as cloud diagnosis, are derived from meteorological data. This cloud diagnosis is a key issue for wet deposition modelling since it allows to distinguish between two processes: in-cloud scavenging which corresponds to the collection of radioactive particles into the cloud and below-cloud scavenging consequent to the removal of radioactive material due to the falling drops. Several parametrizations of cloud diagnosis exist in the literature, using different input data: relative humidity, liquid water content, also. All these diagnosis return a large range of cloud base heights and cloud top heights. In this study, computed cloud diagnostics are compared to the observations at the Fukushima airport. Atmospheric dispersion simulations at Japan scale are then performed utilizing the most reliable ones. Impact on results are discussed.

  14. Accident study of torrential protective structures based on the French RTM database

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boncompain, Ingrid; Quefféléan, Yann; Carladous, Simon

    2017-04-01

    Torrential protective structures such as dikes, sediment traps, and check dams aim to reduce damage on elements at risk. They are built given a reference scenario. Nevertheless, this scenario can be exceeded or structures can fail because of their design or their ageing. We later talk about "accidents". The 1996 Aras disaster near Biescas (Spain) showed that consequences can be significant: 35 of 40 check dams were destroyed which involved 87 fatalities in a campsite. The accident probability and its consequences must be taken into account to analyze risk. Databases are useful tools to extract needed information. In France, the Restoration of Mountainous Areas department (RTM) has been public funded to develop a database, specific to mountainous areas (the Alps and the Pyrenees). Almost 12 500 check dams, 80 sediment traps and 600 dikes were registered in public forests in 2011. These samples were assumed significant for check dams and sediment traps but not for dikes because the most part was missing. In parallel, more than 31 000 torrential events were registered. Given these elements, an accident study was developed. We first extracted 1 925 events with accidents on protective structures: 39 % occurred during the 19th century and 53 % have occurred since 1900. Sediment traps were involved in 37 events, check dams in 336, and dikes in 1488. Then, a detailed analysis was specifically carried out for check dams. Event phenomena were extracted: torrential flood, liquid flood, snow avalanche, rock fall, and landslide. Accident typology was also specified: scouring, breaking of several check dams, total or partial destruction of one structure, overflowing. Causes of accidents on check dams were first analyzed. Torrential floods were responsible of 85 % of events (284 of 336) even if other phenomena must be also taken into account. Almost 45 % of events (152 of 336) involved total destruction of one or several check dams. Taking into account events for the last 150 years, 30 events were registered with destruction of several check dams: the annual probability of occurrence is 3.10-4. Analyzing consequences, only 11 of previously retained events (1925) were registered with fatalities. Finally, these quantitative elements were compared to qualitative feedback analysis from field practitioners and were illustrated with the 1987 Saint-Antoine event, in Modane. The total or partial destruction of 25 check dams released between 20 000 and 30 000 m3, which was one third of the estimated debris flow volume (85 000 m3) which damaged an industrial area. The lack of their maintenance partially explained this accident. As a conclusion, we must keep in mind that these results are limited to available data (all events have not been necessarily reported). Accidents on check dams are rare according to these data. It can be due to their general maintenance. This first analysis could be improved taking into account expert analysis, completing with information from other countries databases and formalizing the approach through a dependability analysis framework.

  15. On statistical inference in time series analysis of the evolution of road safety.

    PubMed

    Commandeur, Jacques J F; Bijleveld, Frits D; Bergel-Hayat, Ruth; Antoniou, Constantinos; Yannis, George; Papadimitriou, Eleonora

    2013-11-01

    Data collected for building a road safety observatory usually include observations made sequentially through time. Examples of such data, called time series data, include annual (or monthly) number of road traffic accidents, traffic fatalities or vehicle kilometers driven in a country, as well as the corresponding values of safety performance indicators (e.g., data on speeding, seat belt use, alcohol use, etc.). Some commonly used statistical techniques imply assumptions that are often violated by the special properties of time series data, namely serial dependency among disturbances associated with the observations. The first objective of this paper is to demonstrate the impact of such violations to the applicability of standard methods of statistical inference, which leads to an under or overestimation of the standard error and consequently may produce erroneous inferences. Moreover, having established the adverse consequences of ignoring serial dependency issues, the paper aims to describe rigorous statistical techniques used to overcome them. In particular, appropriate time series analysis techniques of varying complexity are employed to describe the development over time, relating the accident-occurrences to explanatory factors such as exposure measures or safety performance indicators, and forecasting the development into the near future. Traditional regression models (whether they are linear, generalized linear or nonlinear) are shown not to naturally capture the inherent dependencies in time series data. Dedicated time series analysis techniques, such as the ARMA-type and DRAG approaches are discussed next, followed by structural time series models, which are a subclass of state space methods. The paper concludes with general recommendations and practice guidelines for the use of time series models in road safety research. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Quantifying the risk of extreme aviation accidents

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Das, Kumer Pial; Dey, Asim Kumer

    2016-12-01

    Air travel is considered a safe means of transportation. But when aviation accidents do occur they often result in fatalities. Fortunately, the most extreme accidents occur rarely. However, 2014 was the deadliest year in the past decade causing 111 plane crashes, and among them worst four crashes cause 298, 239, 162 and 116 deaths. In this study, we want to assess the risk of the catastrophic aviation accidents by studying historical aviation accidents. Applying a generalized Pareto model we predict the maximum fatalities from an aviation accident in future. The fitted model is compared with some of its competitive models. The uncertainty in the inferences are quantified using simulated aviation accident series, generated by bootstrap resampling and Monte Carlo simulations.

  17. A study of general aviation accidents involving children in 2011.

    PubMed

    Poland, Kristin M; Marshall, Nora M

    2014-08-01

    General aviation accidents involving children are rare, but when they do happen, little is known about the children involved, including their age, restraint status, and injuries. This lack of information is due to the fact that the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) did not always collect detailed data about passengers involved in accidents. Consequently, in 2011, NTSB investigators collected detailed information on children involved in general aviation accidents and this report provides a summary of the outcomes. During 2011, 19 general aviation accidents and incidents included 39 children who were 14 yr old and younger. In total, 26 children sustained fatal injuries, 2 sustained serious injuries, 5 sustained minor injuries, and 6 sustained no injuries. All of the children less than 2 yr old were restrained in a child restraint system and sustained no injuries in the accidents. At least one 4-yr-old child would have benefited from being restrained in a child restraint system. In addition, in two accidents, it was determined that children were likely sharing a single seat belt. This year-long data collection regarding children involved in general aviation accidents provided substantial information concerning age, restraint status, and injuries. In response to issues identified, the NTSB made improvements to its aviation data management system to routinely collect this information for future investigations and enable subsequent evaluation of the data regarding child passengers involved in general aviation accidents over the long term.

  18. Factors associated with automobile accidents and survival.

    PubMed

    Kim, Hong Sok; Kim, Hyung Jin; Son, Bongsoo

    2006-09-01

    This paper develops an econometric model for vehicles' inherent mortality rate and estimates the probability of accidents and survival in the United States. Logistic regression model is used to estimate probability of survival, and censored regression model is used to estimate probability of accidents. The estimation results indicated that the probability of accident and survival are influenced by the physical characteristics of the vehicles involved in the accident, and by the characteristics of the driver and the occupants. Using restrain system and riding in heavy vehicle increased the survival rate. Middle-aged drivers are less susceptible to involve in an accident, and surprisingly, female drivers are more likely to have an accident than male drivers. Riding in powerful vehicles (high horsepower) and driving late night increase the probability of accident. Overall, the driving behavior and characteristics of vehicle does matter and affects the probabilities of having a fatal accident for different types of vehicles.

  19. [Psychological effects of road accidents: a challenge for public health].

    PubMed

    Waszkowska, Małgorzata; Merecz, Dorota

    2006-01-01

    The authors discuss psychological consequences of road accidents and the need for providing support for the victims and their families. The most common psychological effects include mental health problems, increased use of psychotropic drugs, and difficulty in performing occupational functions. Therefore, it is necessary to remodel the system of traffic safety and supplement it with a comprehensive system of support for both direct victims of accidents and their close relatives. To reach this goal, we need to develop optimal conditions for multidisciplinary research to investigate the effects of road accidents in Poland. This would make it possible to design effective psychological treatment and develop an institutional system for relevant support. However, some preventive measures can be taken right now, e.g., early intervention for severely injured victims during their hospital stay or providing support for non-injured victims and their families.

  20. The influence of age, seat belt, time of day, and type of vehicles on road accidents in Kerman, Iran.

    PubMed

    Mohammadi, Ghorbanali

    2009-04-01

    Traffic accidents are one of the main external causes of morbidity and mortality in various parts of the world, including Kerman, a city that has experienced rapid growth in the number of cars in the last 5 years. The objective of this article was to identify the influence of age, belt use, time of day, and type of vehicle road accidents of southeastern Iran. This study used data obtained from Kerman police force reports on incidents of road traffic accidents (RTAs). We analyzed the police reports of total road accidents that occurred from 2005 to 2007. The involvement in fatal and non-fatal accidents was determined for females than among males. The analysis of the data indicated that the female drivers have a much better road safety record than male drivers, especially with regards to their involvement in severe traffic accidents. Forty-nine percent of accidents involve passenger cars, which is higher than other type of vehicles. Female drivers were found to be generally safer drivers than their male counterparts; male drivers who did not use seat belts had a higher involvement rate in road traffic accidents. Time of day analyses suggested that the problems of accidents in darkness are not a matter of visibility but a consequence of the way drivers use the roads at night. A number of recommended measures for the improvement of road safety in southeastern Iran are suggested.

  1. Woodworking injuries: a comparative study of work-related and hobby-related accidents.

    PubMed

    Loisel, F; Bonin, S; Jeunet, L; Pauchot, J; Tropet, Y; Obert, L

    2014-10-01

    The primary objective of this study was to describe the injury characteristics and demographics of patients injured during woodworking activities, upon their arrival to the emergency department in a regional of France where this industry is prevalent. The secondary objective was to compare patient and injury characteristics for work-related and hobby-related accidents. A cohort of 87 patients who had suffered a woodworking accident over a two-year period was evaluated; 79 were available for follow-up. The context and circumstances of the accident, nature and location of the injuries and patient demographics were recorded. Hobby-related accidents accounted for two-thirds of the accidents (51/79). Most of the injured workers were either loggers (35%) or carpenters (46%). The hand was injured in 53 cases (67%). Work-related accidents resulted in significantly more serious consequences in terms of hospital stay, work stoppage, resumption of work or retraining than hobby-related accidents. For the workplace accidents, 86% occurred on new machines; more than 25% of the machines involved in accidents at home were over 15 years. Sixty-eight per cent of workers were wearing their safety gear, while only 31% of those injured during recreational woodworking wore the appropriate gear. Several elements of prevention should be improved: information about the need to maintain the equipment, protect the worker with suitable clothing, and learn which maneuvers are considered hazardous. Safety gear should be regularly inspected in the workplace. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier SAS.

  2. Systems thinking, the Swiss Cheese Model and accident analysis: a comparative systemic analysis of the Grayrigg train derailment using the ATSB, AcciMap and STAMP models.

    PubMed

    Underwood, Peter; Waterson, Patrick

    2014-07-01

    The Swiss Cheese Model (SCM) is the most popular accident causation model and is widely used throughout various industries. A debate exists in the research literature over whether the SCM remains a viable tool for accident analysis. Critics of the model suggest that it provides a sequential, oversimplified view of accidents. Conversely, proponents suggest that it embodies the concepts of systems theory, as per the contemporary systemic analysis techniques. The aim of this paper was to consider whether the SCM can provide a systems thinking approach and remain a viable option for accident analysis. To achieve this, the train derailment at Grayrigg was analysed with an SCM-based model (the ATSB accident investigation model) and two systemic accident analysis methods (AcciMap and STAMP). The analysis outputs and usage of the techniques were compared. The findings of the study showed that each model applied the systems thinking approach. However, the ATSB model and AcciMap graphically presented their findings in a more succinct manner, whereas STAMP more clearly embodied the concepts of systems theory. The study suggests that, whilst the selection of an analysis method is subject to trade-offs that practitioners and researchers must make, the SCM remains a viable model for accident analysis. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Data mining of tree-based models to analyze freeway accident frequency.

    PubMed

    Chang, Li-Yen; Chen, Wen-Chieh

    2005-01-01

    Statistical models, such as Poisson or negative binomial regression models, have been employed to analyze vehicle accident frequency for many years. However, these models have their own model assumptions and pre-defined underlying relationship between dependent and independent variables. If these assumptions are violated, the model could lead to erroneous estimation of accident likelihood. Classification and Regression Tree (CART), one of the most widely applied data mining techniques, has been commonly employed in business administration, industry, and engineering. CART does not require any pre-defined underlying relationship between target (dependent) variable and predictors (independent variables) and has been shown to be a powerful tool, particularly for dealing with prediction and classification problems. This study collected the 2001-2002 accident data of National Freeway 1 in Taiwan. A CART model and a negative binomial regression model were developed to establish the empirical relationship between traffic accidents and highway geometric variables, traffic characteristics, and environmental factors. The CART findings indicated that the average daily traffic volume and precipitation variables were the key determinants for freeway accident frequencies. By comparing the prediction performance between the CART and the negative binomial regression models, this study demonstrates that CART is a good alternative method for analyzing freeway accident frequencies. By comparing the prediction performance between the CART and the negative binomial regression models, this study demonstrates that CART is a good alternative method for analyzing freeway accident frequencies.

  4. Code manual for CONTAIN 2.0: A computer code for nuclear reactor containment analysis

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Murata, K.K.; Williams, D.C.; Griffith, R.O.

    1997-12-01

    The CONTAIN 2.0 computer code is an integrated analysis tool used for predicting the physical conditions, chemical compositions, and distributions of radiological materials inside a containment building following the release of material from the primary system in a light-water reactor accident. It can also predict the source term to the environment. CONTAIN 2.0 is intended to replace the earlier CONTAIN 1.12, which was released in 1991. The purpose of this Code Manual is to provide full documentation of the features and models in CONTAIN 2.0. Besides complete descriptions of the models, this Code Manual provides a complete description of themore » input and output from the code. CONTAIN 2.0 is a highly flexible and modular code that can run problems that are either quite simple or highly complex. An important aspect of CONTAIN is that the interactions among thermal-hydraulic phenomena, aerosol behavior, and fission product behavior are taken into account. The code includes atmospheric models for steam/air thermodynamics, intercell flows, condensation/evaporation on structures and aerosols, aerosol behavior, and gas combustion. It also includes models for reactor cavity phenomena such as core-concrete interactions and coolant pool boiling. Heat conduction in structures, fission product decay and transport, radioactive decay heating, and the thermal-hydraulic and fission product decontamination effects of engineered safety features are also modeled. To the extent possible, the best available models for severe accident phenomena have been incorporated into CONTAIN, but it is intrinsic to the nature of accident analysis that significant uncertainty exists regarding numerous phenomena. In those cases, sensitivity studies can be performed with CONTAIN by means of user-specified input parameters. Thus, the code can be viewed as a tool designed to assist the knowledge reactor safety analyst in evaluating the consequences of specific modeling assumptions.« less

  5. Tracking buoys research for oil spilling with the wireless charging equipment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cui, Di; Zhao, Ping

    2018-03-01

    This paper describes thewirelesscharging equipment for achieving oil spill tracking buoys detection in satellite images acquired after tanker accidents or ship oil spill accidents. This information could allow the evolution of residues dumped at sea to be tracked. The validity of this process is demonstrated using several experiment acquired over several regions (Dalian and Tianjin coasts in China), in which a tanker accident has occurred and as a consequence oil spillage has taken place. Thus, this purpose of paper is developed for the active surveillance and rapid response to marine oil spills tracking buoys with wirelesscharging equipmentis important and essential to environment protection. It may appears of leak places for the Wire Charging Equipment for marine oil spills tracking buoys monitoring needs, and achieved instant alarm technology and equipment, guarantees leak occurred timely obtained alarm information. In order toproviding oil spill accidents emergency quickly reaction time and prepared. The maximum degree reduce oil leak and accidents caused influences are ensured.

  6. Managing the Fukushima Challenge

    PubMed Central

    Suzuki, Atsuyuki

    2014-01-01

    The Fukushima Daiichi accident raises a fundamental question: Can science and technology prevent the inevitability of serious accidents, especially those with low probabilities and high consequences? This question reminds us of a longstanding challenge with the trans-sciences, originally addressed by Alvin Weinberg well before the Three Mile Island and Chernobyl accidents. This article, revisiting Weinberg's issue, aims at gaining insights from the accident with a special emphasis on the sociotechnical or human behavioral aspects lying behind the accident's causes. In particular, an innovative method for managing the challenge is explored referring to behavioral science approaches to a decision-making process on risk management; such as managing human behavioral risks with information asymmetry, seeking a rational consensus with communicative action, and pursuing procedural rationality through interactions with the outer environment. In short, this article describes the emerging need for Japan to transform its national safety management institutions so that these might be based on interactive communication with parties inside and outside Japan. PMID:24954604

  7. Effect of the Duration Time of a Nuclear Accident on Radiological Health Consequences

    PubMed Central

    Jeong, Hyojoon; Park, Misun; Jeong, Haesun; Hwang, Wontae; Kim, Eunhan; Han, Moonhee

    2014-01-01

    This study aimed to quantify the effect of duration time of a nuclear accident on the radiation dose of a densely populated area and the resulting acute health effects. In the case of nuclear accidents, the total emissions of radioactive materials can be classified into several categories. Therefore, the release information is very important for the assessment of risk to the public. We confirmed that when the duration time of the emissions are prolonged to 7 hours, the concentrations of radioactive substances in the ambient air are reduced by 50% compared to that when the duration time of emission is one hour. This means that the risk evaluation using only the first wind direction of an accident is very conservative, so it has to be used as a screening level for the risk assessment. Furthermore, it is judged that the proper control of the emission time of a nuclear accident can minimize the health effects on residents. PMID:24619120

  8. An operational centre for managing major chemical industrial accidents.

    PubMed

    Kiranoudis, C T; Kourniotis, S P; Christolis, M; Markatos, N C; Zografos, K G; Giannouli, I M; Androutsopoulos, K N; Ziomas, I; Kosmidis, E; Simeonidis, P; Poupkou, N

    2002-01-28

    The most important characteristic of major chemical accidents, from a societal perspective, is their tendency to produce off-site effects. The extent and severity of the accident may significantly affect the population and the environment of the adjacent areas. Following an accident event, effort should be made to limit such effects. Management decisions should be based on rational and quantitative information based on the site specific circumstances and the possible consequences. To produce such information we have developed an operational centre for managing large-scale industrial accidents. Its architecture involves an integrated framework of geographical information system (GIS) and RDBMS technology systems equipped with interactive communication capabilities. The operational centre was developed for Windows 98 platforms, for the region of Thriasion Pedion of West Attica, where the concentration of industrial activity and storage of toxic chemical is immense within areas of high population density. An appropriate case study is given in order to illuminate the use and necessity of the operational centre.

  9. Moral empiricism and the bias for act-based rules.

    PubMed

    Ayars, Alisabeth; Nichols, Shaun

    2017-10-01

    Previous studies on rule learning show a bias in favor of act-based rules, which prohibit intentionally producing an outcome but not merely allowing the outcome. Nichols, Kumar, Lopez, Ayars, and Chan (2016) found that exposure to a single sample violation in which an agent intentionally causes the outcome was sufficient for participants to infer that the rule was act-based. One explanation is that people have an innate bias to think rules are act-based. We suggest an alternative empiricist account: since most rules that people learn are act-based, people form an overhypothesis (Goodman, 1955) that rules are typically act-based. We report three studies that indicate that people can use information about violations to form overhypotheses about rules. In study 1, participants learned either three "consequence-based" rules that prohibited allowing an outcome or three "act-based" rules that prohibiting producing the outcome; in a subsequent learning task, we found that participants who had learned three consequence-based rules were more likely to think that the new rule prohibited allowing an outcome. In study 2, we presented participants with either 1 consequence-based rule or 3 consequence-based rules, and we found that those exposed to 3 such rules were more likely to think that a new rule was also consequence based. Thus, in both studies, it seems that learning 3 consequence-based rules generates an overhypothesis to expect new rules to be consequence-based. In a final study, we used a more subtle manipulation. We exposed participants to examples act-based or accident-based (strict liability) laws and then had them learn a novel rule. We found that participants who were exposed to the accident-based laws were more likely to think a new rule was accident-based. The fact that participants' bias for act-based rules can be shaped by evidence from other rules supports the idea that the bias for act-based rules might be acquired as an overhypothesis from the preponderance of act-based rules. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. [Somatic consequences of cannabis use].

    PubMed

    Cottencin, Olivier; Bence, Camille; Rolland, Benjamin; Karila, Laurent

    2013-12-01

    Cannabis can have negative effects in its users, and a range of acute and chronic health problems associated with cannabis use has been dentified. Acute cannabis consumption is rarely lethal but it is associated with an increased risk of motor vehicle accident because of longer reaction time or impaired motor coordination. Chronic effects of cannabis use include generally cardiovascular and respiratory consequences but there are also oral, gastrointestinal, cutaneous and mucous, metabolic, gynecologic and obstetrical, sexual consequences, and cancer But associated tobacco smoking or other potential confounders may explain part of those somatic consequences.

  11. MELCOR simulations of the severe accident at Fukushima Daiichi Unit 3

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Cardoni, Jeffrey; Gauntt, Randall; Kalinich, Donald

    In response to the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station in Japan, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission and U.S. Department of Energy agreed to jointly sponsor an accident reconstruction study as a means of assessing the severe accident modeling capability of the MELCOR code. Objectives of the project included reconstruction of the accident progressions using computer models and accident data, and validation of the MELCOR code and the Fukushima models against plant data. A MELCOR 2.1 model of the Fukushima Daiichi Unit 3 reactor is developed using plant-specific information and accident-specific boundary conditions, which involve considerable uncertainty duemore » to the inherent nature of severe accidents. Publicly available thermal-hydraulic data and radioactivity release estimates have evolved significantly since the accidents. Such data are expected to continually change as the reactors are decommissioned and more measurements are performed. As a result, the MELCOR simulations in this work primarily use boundary conditions that are based on available plant data as of May 2012.« less

  12. MELCOR simulations of the severe accident at Fukushima Daiichi Unit 3

    DOE PAGES

    Cardoni, Jeffrey; Gauntt, Randall; Kalinich, Donald; ...

    2014-05-01

    In response to the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station in Japan, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission and U.S. Department of Energy agreed to jointly sponsor an accident reconstruction study as a means of assessing the severe accident modeling capability of the MELCOR code. Objectives of the project included reconstruction of the accident progressions using computer models and accident data, and validation of the MELCOR code and the Fukushima models against plant data. A MELCOR 2.1 model of the Fukushima Daiichi Unit 3 reactor is developed using plant-specific information and accident-specific boundary conditions, which involve considerable uncertainty duemore » to the inherent nature of severe accidents. Publicly available thermal-hydraulic data and radioactivity release estimates have evolved significantly since the accidents. Such data are expected to continually change as the reactors are decommissioned and more measurements are performed. As a result, the MELCOR simulations in this work primarily use boundary conditions that are based on available plant data as of May 2012.« less

  13. Simulation and assessment of SO2 toxic environment after ignition of uncontrolled sour gas flow of well blowout in hills.

    PubMed

    Zhu, Yuan; Chen, Guo-ming

    2010-06-15

    To study the sulfur dioxide (SO(2)) toxic environment after the ignition of uncontrolled sour gas flow of well blowout, we propose an integrated model to simulate the accident scenario and assess the consequences of SO(2) poisoning. The accident simulation is carried out based on computational fluid dynamics (CFD), which is composed of well blowout dynamics, combustion of sour gas, and products dispersion. Furthermore, detailed complex terrains are built and boundary layer flows are simulated according to Pasquill stability classes. Then based on the estimated exposure dose derived from the toxic dose-response relationship, quantitative assessment is carried out by using equivalent emergency response planning guideline (ERPG) concentration. In this case study, the contaminated areas are graded into three levels, and the areas, maximal influence distances, and main trajectories are predicted. We show that wind drives the contamination and its distribution to spread downwind, and terrains change the distribution shape through spatial aggregation and obstacles. As a result, the most dangerous regions are the downwind areas, the foot of the slopes, and depression areas such as valleys. These cause unfavorable influences on emergency response for accident control and public evacuation. In addition, the effectiveness of controlling the number of deaths by employing ignition is verified in theory. Based on the assessment results, we propose some suggestions for risk assessment, emergency response and accident decision making. Copyright 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. [Rehabilitation in the German statutory accident insurance. Guide to the new outpatient and inpatient structures].

    PubMed

    Simmel, S; Bühren, V

    2015-02-01

    The German statutory accident insurance (DGUV) has the statutory mandate to eliminate or to prevent an aggravation of the consequences of accidents by all appropriate means and is based on the principle of rehabilitation before pension. For this, special methods have been developed in recent decades, such as employer's mutual insurance inpatient further treatment (BGSW, Berufsgenossenschaftliche Stationäre Weiterbehandlung) and extended outpatient physiotherapy (EAP, Erweiterte Ambulante Physiotherapie). In 2012 the workplace-related musculoskeletal rehabilitation (ABMR, Arbeitsplatz-bezogene muskuloskelettale Rehabilitation) was added to these complex treatments. For complex injuries and delayed healing these methods approach their limits. The accident clinics of the Association of Clinics in Statutory Accident Insurance (KUV, Klinikverbund der gesetzlichen Unfallversicherung) provide a number of specialized rehabilitation measures in order to ensure an optimal seamless rehabilitation of the severely injured. In addition to complex inpatient rehabilitation (KSR, Komplexe Stationäre Rehabilitation) integrated special rehabilitation procedures, such as neurorehabilitation for severely traumatic brain injured patients and rehabilitation after spinal cord injury and other special rehabilitation methods, such as occupation-oriented rehabilitation (TOR, Tätigkeitsorientierte Rehabilitation) and pain rehabilitation, ensure that the German Society for Trauma Surgery (DGU) phase model of trauma rehabilitation is implemented. This provides an early start in the context of acute treatment as so-called early rehabilitation. After a specialized post-acute rehabilitation, additional therapeutic options are often required. An appropriate treatment of severely injured patients is important, for example through rehabilitation managers, which must not end with discharge from the rehabilitation hospital. The aim of all efforts is the reintegration into the working and social environment in addition to the best possible quality of life.

  15. How to identify the key factors that affect driver perception of accident risk. A comparison between Italian and Spanish driver behavior.

    PubMed

    de Oña, Juan; de Oña, Rocio; Eboli, Laura; Forciniti, Carmen; Mazzulla, Gabriella

    2014-12-01

    Road crashes can be caused by different factors, including infrastructure, vehicles, and human variables. Many research studies have focused solely on identifying the key factors that cause road crashes. From these studies, it emerged that human factors have the most relevant impact on accident severity. More specifically, accident severity depends on several factors related directly to the driver, i.e., driving experience, driver's socio-economic characteristics, and driving behavior and attitudes. In this paper, we investigate driver behaviors and attitudes while driving and specifically focus on different methods for identifying the factors that most affect the driver's perception of accident risk. To this end, we designed and conducted a survey in two different European contexts: the city of Cosenza, which is located in the south of Italy, and the city of Granada, which is located in the south of Spain. Samples of drivers were contacted for their opinions on certain aspects of driving rules and attitudes while driving, and different types of questions were addressed to the drivers to assess their judgments of these aspects. Consequently, different methods of data analysis were applied to determine the aspects that heavily influence driver perception of accident risk. An experiment based on the stated preferences (SP) was carried out with the drivers, and the SP data were analyzed using an ordered probit (OP) model. Interesting findings emerged from different analyses of the data and from the comparisons among the data collected in the two different territorial contexts. We found that both Italian and Spanish drivers consider driving in an altered psychophysical state and violating the overtaking rules to be the most risky behaviors. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. WHEN MODEL MEETS REALITY – A REVIEW OF SPAR LEVEL 2 MODEL AGAINST FUKUSHIMA ACCIDENT

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Zhegang Ma

    The Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) models are a set of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) models used by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to evaluate the risk of operations at U.S. nuclear power plants and provide inputs to risk informed regulatory process. A small number of SPAR Level 2 models have been developed mostly for feasibility study purpose. They extend the Level 1 models to include containment systems, group plant damage states, and model containment phenomenology and accident progression in containment event trees. A severe earthquake and tsunami hit the eastern coast of Japan in March 2011 and caused significantmore » damages on the reactors in Fukushima Daiichi site. Station blackout (SBO), core damage, containment damage, hydrogen explosion, and intensive radioactivity release, which have been previous analyzed and assumed as postulated accident progression in PRA models, now occurred with various degrees in the multi-units Fukushima Daiichi site. This paper reviews and compares a typical BWR SPAR Level 2 model with the “real” accident progressions and sequences occurred in Fukushima Daiichi Units 1, 2, and 3. It shows that the SPAR Level 2 model is a robust PRA model that could very reasonably describe the accident progression for a real and complicated nuclear accident in the world. On the other hand, the comparison shows that the SPAR model could be enhanced by incorporating some accident characteristics for better representation of severe accident progression.« less

  17. Advanced accident research system based on a medical and engineering data in the metropolitan area of Florence

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background In the metropolitan area of Florence, 62% of major traumas involve powered two wheeler rider and pillion passengers, 10% cyclists, and 7% pedestrians. The urban and extra-urban areas are the most dangerous for the vulnerable road user. In-depth investigations are needed for assessing detailed information on road accidents. This type of study has been very limited in time frame in Italy, and completely absent in the Tuscan region. Consequently a study called “In-depth Study of road Accident in FlorencE” (In-SAFE) has been initiated. Methods A network between the Department of Mechanics and Industrial Technologies (University of Florence) and the Intensive Care Unit of the Emergency Department (Careggi Teaching Hospital, Florence) was created with the aim of collecting information about the road accidents. The data collected includes: on-scene data, data coming from examination of the vehicles, kinematics and dynamic crash data, injuries, treatment, and injury mechanisms. Each injury is codified thorough the AIS score, localized by a three-dimensional human body model based on computer tomography slices, and the main scores are calculated. We then associate each injury with its cause and crash technical parameters. Finally, all the information is collected in the In-SAFE database. Results Patient mean age at the time of the accident was 34.6 years, and 80% were males. The ISS mean is 24.2 (SD 8.7) and the NISS mean is 33.6 (SD 10.5). The main road accident configurations are the “car-to-PTW” (25%) and “pedestrian run over” (17,9%). For the former, the main collision configuration is “head-on crash” (57%). Cyclists and PTW riders-and-pillions-passengers suffer serious injuries (AIS3+) mainly to the head and the thorax. The head (56.4%) and the lower extremities (12.7%) are the most frequently injured pedestrian body regions. Conclusions The aim of the project is to create an in-depth road accident study with special focus on the correlation between technical parameters and injuries. An in-depth investigation team was setup and is currently active in the metropolitan area of Florence. Twenty-eight serious road accidents involving twenty-nine ICU patients are studied. PTW users, cyclist and pedestrians are the most frequently involved in metropolitan accidents. PMID:23496830

  18. Combining operational models and data into a dynamic vessel risk assessment tool for coastal regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fernandes, R.; Braunschweig, F.; Lourenço, F.; Neves, R.

    2016-02-01

    The technological evolution in terms of computational capacity, data acquisition systems, numerical modelling and operational oceanography is supplying opportunities for designing and building holistic approaches and complex tools for newer and more efficient management (planning, prevention and response) of coastal water pollution risk events. A combined methodology to dynamically estimate time and space variable individual vessel accident risk levels and shoreline contamination risk from ships has been developed, integrating numerical metocean forecasts and oil spill simulations with vessel tracking automatic identification systems (AIS). The risk rating combines the likelihood of an oil spill occurring from a vessel navigating in a study area - the Portuguese continental shelf - with the assessed consequences to the shoreline. The spill likelihood is based on dynamic marine weather conditions and statistical information from previous accidents. The shoreline consequences reflect the virtual spilled oil amount reaching shoreline and its environmental and socio-economic vulnerabilities. The oil reaching shoreline is quantified with an oil spill fate and behaviour model running multiple virtual spills from vessels along time, or as an alternative, a correction factor based on vessel distance from coast. Shoreline risks can be computed in real time or from previously obtained data. Results show the ability of the proposed methodology to estimate the risk properly sensitive to dynamic metocean conditions and to oil transport behaviour. The integration of meteo-oceanic + oil spill models with coastal vulnerability and AIS data in the quantification of risk enhances the maritime situational awareness and the decision support model, providing a more realistic approach in the assessment of shoreline impacts. The risk assessment from historical data can help finding typical risk patterns ("hot spots") or developing sensitivity analysis to specific conditions, whereas real-time risk levels can be used in the prioritization of individual ships, geographical areas, strategic tug positioning and implementation of dynamic risk-based vessel traffic monitoring.

  19. Health consequences of shift work and insufficient sleep.

    PubMed

    Kecklund, Göran; Axelsson, John

    2016-11-01

    This review summarises the literature on shift work and its relation to insufficient sleep, chronic diseases, and accidents. It is based on 38 meta-analyses and 24 systematic reviews, with additional narrative reviews and articles used for outlining possible mechanisms by which shift work may cause accidents and adverse health. Evidence shows that the effect of shift work on sleep mainly concerns acute sleep loss in connection with night shifts and early morning shifts. A link also exists between shift work and accidents, type 2 diabetes (relative risk range 1.09-1.40), weight gain, coronary heart disease (relative risk 1.23), stroke (relative risk 1.05), and cancer (relative risk range 1.01-1.32), although the original studies showed mixed results. The relations of shift work to cardiometabolic diseases and accidents mimic those with insufficient sleep. Laboratory studies indicate that cardiometabolic stress and cognitive impairments are increased by shift work, as well as by sleep loss. Given that the health and safety consequences of shift work and insufficient sleep are very similar, they are likely to share common mechanisms. However, additional research is needed to determine whether insufficient sleep is a causal pathway for the adverse health effects associated with shift work. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  20. Discussion on accuracy degree evaluation of accident velocity reconstruction model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zou, Tiefang; Dai, Yingbiao; Cai, Ming; Liu, Jike

    In order to investigate the applicability of accident velocity reconstruction model in different cases, a method used to evaluate accuracy degree of accident velocity reconstruction model is given. Based on pre-crash velocity in theory and calculation, an accuracy degree evaluation formula is obtained. With a numerical simulation case, Accuracy degrees and applicability of two accident velocity reconstruction models are analyzed; results show that this method is feasible in practice.

  1. An analysis of urban collisions using an artificial intelligence model.

    PubMed

    Mussone, L; Ferrari, A; Oneta, M

    1999-11-01

    Traditional studies on road accidents estimate the effect of variables (such as vehicular flows, road geometry, vehicular characteristics), and the calculation of the number of accidents. A descriptive statistical analysis of the accidents (those used in the model) over the period 1992-1995 is proposed. The paper describes an alternative method based on the use of artificial neural networks (ANN) in order to work out a model that relates to the analysis of vehicular accidents in Milan. The degree of danger of urban intersections using different scenarios is quantified by the ANN model. Methodology is the first result, which allows us to tackle the modelling of urban vehicular accidents by the innovative use of ANN. Other results deal with model outputs: intersection complexity may determine a higher accident index depending on the regulation of intersection. The highest index for running over of pedestrian occurs at non-signalised intersections at night-time.

  2. Association between Daily Hospital Outpatient Visits for Accidents and Daily Ambient Air Temperatures in an Industrial City.

    PubMed

    Chau, Tang-Tat; Wang, Kuo-Ying

    2016-01-01

    An accident is an unwanted hazard to a person. However, accidents occur. In this work, we search for correlations between daily accident rates and environmental factors. To study daily hospital outpatients who were admitted for accidents during a 5-year period, 2007-2011, we analyzed data regarding 168,366 outpatients using univariate regression models; we also used multivariable regression models to account for confounding factors. Our analysis indicates that the number of male outpatients admitted for accidents was approximately 1.31 to 1.47 times the number of female outpatients (P < 0.0001). Of the 12 parameters (regarding air pollution and meteorology) considered, only daily temperature exhibited consistent and significant correlations with the daily number of hospital outpatient visits for accidents throughout the 5-year analysis period. The univariate regression models indicate that older people (greater than 66 years old) had the fewest accidents per 1-degree increase in temperature, followed by young people (0-15 years old). Middle-aged people (16-65 years old) were the group of outpatients that were more prone to accidents, with an increase in accident rates of 0.8-1.2 accidents per degree increase in temperature. The multivariable regression models also reveal that the temperature variation was the dominant factor in determining the daily number of outpatient visits for accidents. Our further multivariable model analysis of temperature with respect to air pollution variables show that, through the increases in emissions and concentrations of CO, photochemical O3 production and NO2 loss in the ambient air, increases in vehicular emissions are associated with increases in temperatures. As such, increases in hospital visits for accidents are related to vehicular emissions and usage. This finding is consistent with clinical experience which shows about 60% to 80% of accidents are related to traffic, followed by accidents occurred in work place.

  3. Association between Daily Hospital Outpatient Visits for Accidents and Daily Ambient Air Temperatures in an Industrial City

    PubMed Central

    Chau, Tang-Tat; Wang, Kuo-Ying

    2016-01-01

    An accident is an unwanted hazard to a person. However, accidents occur. In this work, we search for correlations between daily accident rates and environmental factors. To study daily hospital outpatients who were admitted for accidents during a 5-year period, 2007–2011, we analyzed data regarding 168,366 outpatients using univariate regression models; we also used multivariable regression models to account for confounding factors. Our analysis indicates that the number of male outpatients admitted for accidents was approximately 1.31 to 1.47 times the number of female outpatients (P < 0.0001). Of the 12 parameters (regarding air pollution and meteorology) considered, only daily temperature exhibited consistent and significant correlations with the daily number of hospital outpatient visits for accidents throughout the 5-year analysis period. The univariate regression models indicate that older people (greater than 66 years old) had the fewest accidents per 1-degree increase in temperature, followed by young people (0–15 years old). Middle-aged people (16–65 years old) were the group of outpatients that were more prone to accidents, with an increase in accident rates of 0.8–1.2 accidents per degree increase in temperature. The multivariable regression models also reveal that the temperature variation was the dominant factor in determining the daily number of outpatient visits for accidents. Our further multivariable model analysis of temperature with respect to air pollution variables show that, through the increases in emissions and concentrations of CO, photochemical O3 production and NO2 loss in the ambient air, increases in vehicular emissions are associated with increases in temperatures. As such, increases in hospital visits for accidents are related to vehicular emissions and usage. This finding is consistent with clinical experience which shows about 60% to 80% of accidents are related to traffic, followed by accidents occurred in work place. PMID:26815039

  4. 40 CFR 68.67 - Process hazard analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ...) CHEMICAL ACCIDENT PREVENTION PROVISIONS Program 3 Prevention Program § 68.67 Process hazard analysis. (a... instrumentation with alarms, and detection hardware such as hydrocarbon sensors.); (4) Consequences of failure of...

  5. 40 CFR 68.67 - Process hazard analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ...) CHEMICAL ACCIDENT PREVENTION PROVISIONS Program 3 Prevention Program § 68.67 Process hazard analysis. (a... instrumentation with alarms, and detection hardware such as hydrocarbon sensors.); (4) Consequences of failure of...

  6. Review of Global Menace of Road Accidents with Special Reference to Malaysia- A Social Perspective

    PubMed Central

    Kareem, Abdul

    2003-01-01

    Road accident is ‘a global tragedy’ with ever-rising trend. The goal of this article includes review of the causes and nature of accidents, statistical data regarding road accidents and the economical impact. 1.17 million deaths occur each year worldwide due to road accidents 70 % of which occur in developing countries. 65% of deaths involve pedestrians, 35 % of which are children. Estimates suggest that 23–34 million people are injured worldwide every year in road crashes - a value almost twice that previously estimated. It is estimated that more than 200 U.S. citizens die each year due to road accidents abroad. Every year in Europe, more than 50,000 peoples are killed in road accidents, and more than 150,000 remain disabled. It is a sad fact that the total number of road accidents in Malaysia exceeded 223,000 in 1999. On the average, 16 persons died from these road accidents, every single day in 1999. Lack of attention, reckless driving, lack of proper protection, speeding, bad personal habits, social and behavioral misconduct and inconsiderate drivers of larger vehicles are some of the problems that cause accidents. In Malaysia, motorcycle fatal accidents (60%) warrant a high degree of concern. Young children and senior citizens are found to be in the vulnerable age group. In Malaysia, in 1999 alone, general insurers paid RM1.67 billion or an average of RM4.6 million a day on motor claims. It is now recognized that road traffic accidents represent a major public health problem, because of the high number of victims involved and because of the seriousness of the consequences for themselves and for their families. PMID:23386795

  7. Statistical Models of At-Grade Intersection Accidents. Addendum.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2000-03-01

    This report is an addendum to the work published in FHWA-RD-96-125 titled Statistical Models of At-Grade Intersection Accidents. The objective of both research studies was to develop statistical models of the relationship between traffic accide...

  8. Major Accidents (Gray Swans) Likelihood Modeling Using Accident Precursors and Approximate Reasoning.

    PubMed

    Khakzad, Nima; Khan, Faisal; Amyotte, Paul

    2015-07-01

    Compared to the remarkable progress in risk analysis of normal accidents, the risk analysis of major accidents has not been so well-established, partly due to the complexity of such accidents and partly due to low probabilities involved. The issue of low probabilities normally arises from the scarcity of major accidents' relevant data since such accidents are few and far between. In this work, knowing that major accidents are frequently preceded by accident precursors, a novel precursor-based methodology has been developed for likelihood modeling of major accidents in critical infrastructures based on a unique combination of accident precursor data, information theory, and approximate reasoning. For this purpose, we have introduced an innovative application of information analysis to identify the most informative near accident of a major accident. The observed data of the near accident were then used to establish predictive scenarios to foresee the occurrence of the major accident. We verified the methodology using offshore blowouts in the Gulf of Mexico, and then demonstrated its application to dam breaches in the United Sates. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  9. Work-related accidents among the Iranian population: a time series analysis, 2000–2011

    PubMed Central

    Karimlou, Masoud; Imani, Mehdi; Hosseini, Agha-Fatemeh; Dehnad, Afsaneh; Vahabi, Nasim; Bakhtiyari, Mahmood

    2015-01-01

    Background Work-related accidents result in human suffering and economic losses and are considered as a major health problem worldwide, especially in the economically developing world. Objectives To introduce seasonal autoregressive moving average (ARIMA) models for time series analysis of work-related accident data for workers insured by the Iranian Social Security Organization (ISSO) between 2000 and 2011. Methods In this retrospective study, all insured people experiencing at least one work-related accident during a 10-year period were included in the analyses. We used Box–Jenkins modeling to develop a time series model of the total number of accidents. Results There was an average of 1476 accidents per month (1476·05±458·77, mean±SD). The final ARIMA (p,d,q) (P,D,Q)s model for fitting to data was: ARIMA(1,1,1)×(0,1,1)12 consisting of the first ordering of the autoregressive, moving average and seasonal moving average parameters with 20·942 mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). Conclusions The final model showed that time series analysis of ARIMA models was useful for forecasting the number of work-related accidents in Iran. In addition, the forecasted number of work-related accidents for 2011 explained the stability of occurrence of these accidents in recent years, indicating a need for preventive occupational health and safety policies such as safety inspection. PMID:26119774

  10. Work-related accidents among the Iranian population: a time series analysis, 2000-2011.

    PubMed

    Karimlou, Masoud; Salehi, Masoud; Imani, Mehdi; Hosseini, Agha-Fatemeh; Dehnad, Afsaneh; Vahabi, Nasim; Bakhtiyari, Mahmood

    2015-01-01

    Work-related accidents result in human suffering and economic losses and are considered as a major health problem worldwide, especially in the economically developing world. To introduce seasonal autoregressive moving average (ARIMA) models for time series analysis of work-related accident data for workers insured by the Iranian Social Security Organization (ISSO) between 2000 and 2011. In this retrospective study, all insured people experiencing at least one work-related accident during a 10-year period were included in the analyses. We used Box-Jenkins modeling to develop a time series model of the total number of accidents. There was an average of 1476 accidents per month (1476·05±458·77, mean±SD). The final ARIMA (p,d,q) (P,D,Q)s model for fitting to data was: ARIMA(1,1,1)×(0,1,1)12 consisting of the first ordering of the autoregressive, moving average and seasonal moving average parameters with 20·942 mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The final model showed that time series analysis of ARIMA models was useful for forecasting the number of work-related accidents in Iran. In addition, the forecasted number of work-related accidents for 2011 explained the stability of occurrence of these accidents in recent years, indicating a need for preventive occupational health and safety policies such as safety inspection.

  11. Investigation of shipping accident injury severity and mortality.

    PubMed

    Weng, Jinxian; Yang, Dong

    2015-03-01

    Shipping movements are operated in a complex and high-risk environment. Fatal shipping accidents are the nightmares of seafarers. With ten years' worldwide ship accident data, this study develops a binary logistic regression model and a zero-truncated binomial regression model to predict the probability of fatal shipping accidents and corresponding mortalities. The model results show that both the probability of fatal accidents and mortalities are greater for collision, fire/explosion, contact, grounding, sinking accidents occurred in adverse weather conditions and darkness conditions. Sinking has the largest effects on the increment of fatal accident probability and mortalities. The results also show that the bigger number of mortalities is associated with shipping accidents occurred far away from the coastal area/harbor/port. In addition, cruise ships are found to have more mortalities than non-cruise ships. The results of this study are beneficial for policy-makers in proposing efficient strategies to prevent fatal shipping accidents. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Curve Estimation of Number of People Killed in Traffic Accidents in Turkey

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Berkhan Akalin, Kadir; Karacasu, Murat; Altin, Arzu Yavuz; Ergül, Bariş

    2016-10-01

    One or more than one vehicle in motion on the highway involving death, injury and loss events which have resulted are called accidents. As a result of increasing population and traffic density, traffic accidents continue to increase and this leads to both human losses and harm to the economy. In addition, also leads to social problems. As a result of increasing population and traffic density, traffic accidents continue to increase and this leads to both human losses and harm to the economy. In addition to this, it also leads to social problems. As a result of traffic accidents, millions of people die year by year. A great majority of these accidents occur in developing countries. One of the most important tasks of transportation engineers is to reduce traffic accidents by creating a specific system. For that reason, statistical information about traffic accidents which occur in the past years should be organized by versed people. Factors affecting the traffic accidents are analyzed in various ways. In this study, modelling the number of people killed in traffic accidents in Turkey is determined. The dead people were modelled using curve fitting method with the number of people killed in traffic accidents in Turkey dataset between 1990 and 2014. It was also predicted the number of dead people by using various models for the future. It is decided that linear model is suitable for the estimates.

  13. Random parameter models for accident prediction on two-lane undivided highways in India.

    PubMed

    Dinu, R R; Veeraragavan, A

    2011-02-01

    Generalized linear modeling (GLM), with the assumption of Poisson or negative binomial error structure, has been widely employed in road accident modeling. A number of explanatory variables related to traffic, road geometry, and environment that contribute to accident occurrence have been identified and accident prediction models have been proposed. The accident prediction models reported in literature largely employ the fixed parameter modeling approach, where the magnitude of influence of an explanatory variable is considered to be fixed for any observation in the population. Similar models have been proposed for Indian highways too, which include additional variables representing traffic composition. The mixed traffic on Indian highways comes with a lot of variability within, ranging from difference in vehicle types to variability in driver behavior. This could result in variability in the effect of explanatory variables on accidents across locations. Random parameter models, which can capture some of such variability, are expected to be more appropriate for the Indian situation. The present study is an attempt to employ random parameter modeling for accident prediction on two-lane undivided rural highways in India. Three years of accident history, from nearly 200 km of highway segments, is used to calibrate and validate the models. The results of the analysis suggest that the model coefficients for traffic volume, proportion of cars, motorized two-wheelers and trucks in traffic, and driveway density and horizontal and vertical curvatures are randomly distributed across locations. The paper is concluded with a discussion on modeling results and the limitations of the present study. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Inter-comparison of dynamic models for radionuclide transfer to marine biota in a Fukushima accident scenario.

    PubMed

    Vives I Batlle, J; Beresford, N A; Beaugelin-Seiller, K; Bezhenar, R; Brown, J; Cheng, J-J; Ćujić, M; Dragović, S; Duffa, C; Fiévet, B; Hosseini, A; Jung, K T; Kamboj, S; Keum, D-K; Kryshev, A; LePoire, D; Maderich, V; Min, B-I; Periáñez, R; Sazykina, T; Suh, K-S; Yu, C; Wang, C; Heling, R

    2016-03-01

    We report an inter-comparison of eight models designed to predict the radiological exposure of radionuclides in marine biota. The models were required to simulate dynamically the uptake and turnover of radionuclides by marine organisms. Model predictions of radionuclide uptake and turnover using kinetic calculations based on biological half-life (TB1/2) and/or more complex metabolic modelling approaches were used to predict activity concentrations and, consequently, dose rates of (90)Sr, (131)I and (137)Cs to fish, crustaceans, macroalgae and molluscs under circumstances where the water concentrations are changing with time. For comparison, the ERICA Tool, a model commonly used in environmental assessment, and which uses equilibrium concentration ratios, was also used. As input to the models we used hydrodynamic forecasts of water and sediment activity concentrations using a simulated scenario reflecting the Fukushima accident releases. Although model variability is important, the intercomparison gives logical results, in that the dynamic models predict consistently a pattern of delayed rise of activity concentration in biota and slow decline instead of the instantaneous equilibrium with the activity concentration in seawater predicted by the ERICA Tool. The differences between ERICA and the dynamic models increase the shorter the TB1/2 becomes; however, there is significant variability between models, underpinned by parameter and methodological differences between them. The need to validate the dynamic models used in this intercomparison has been highlighted, particularly in regards to optimisation of the model biokinetic parameters. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Facility Targeting, Protection and Mission Decision Making Using the VISAC Code

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Morris, Robert H.; Sulfredge, C. David

    2011-01-01

    The Visual Interactive Site Analysis Code (VISAC) has been used by DTRA and several other agencies to aid in targeting facilities and to predict the associated collateral effects for the go, no go mission decision making process. VISAC integrates the three concepts of target geometric modeling, damage assessment capabilities, and an event/fault tree methodology for evaluating accident/incident consequences. It can analyze a variety of accidents/incidents at nuclear or industrial facilities, ranging from simple component sabotage to an attack with military or terrorist weapons. For nuclear facilities, VISAC predicts the facility damage, estimated downtime, amount and timing of any radionuclides released. Used in conjunction with DTRA's HPAC code, VISAC also can analyze transport and dispersion of the radionuclides, levels of contamination of the surrounding area, and the population at risk. VISAC has also been used by the NRC to aid in the development of protective measures for nuclear facilities that may be subjected to attacks by car/truck bombs.

  16. Errors in Aviation Decision Making: Bad Decisions or Bad Luck?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Orasanu, Judith; Martin, Lynne; Davison, Jeannie; Null, Cynthia H. (Technical Monitor)

    1998-01-01

    Despite efforts to design systems and procedures to support 'correct' and safe operations in aviation, errors in human judgment still occur and contribute to accidents. In this paper we examine how an NDM (naturalistic decision making) approach might help us to understand the role of decision processes in negative outcomes. Our strategy was to examine a collection of identified decision errors through the lens of an aviation decision process model and to search for common patterns. The second, and more difficult, task was to determine what might account for those patterns. The corpus we analyzed consisted of tactical decision errors identified by the NTSB (National Transportation Safety Board) from a set of accidents in which crew behavior contributed to the accident. A common pattern emerged: about three quarters of the errors represented plan-continuation errors, that is, a decision to continue with the original plan despite cues that suggested changing the course of action. Features in the context that might contribute to these errors were identified: (a) ambiguous dynamic conditions and (b) organizational and socially-induced goal conflicts. We hypothesize that 'errors' are mediated by underestimation of risk and failure to analyze the potential consequences of continuing with the initial plan. Stressors may further contribute to these effects. Suggestions for improving performance in these error-inducing contexts are discussed.

  17. The New Zealand accident compensation scheme.

    PubMed

    Barter, R W

    1977-05-01

    Reference is made to legislation concerned with the introduction of the New Zealand Accident Compensation Scheme in 1974. The author's experience of the Scheme is based on an exchange visit in 1975. The basic principles are community responsibility and universal entitlement to compensation. Earnings-related benefits are paid to the injured person, and flat-rate payments to non-earners. The Scheme is administered by a three-man Commission with wide responsibilities for accident prevention, rehabilitation services, administration of funds, records, public relations, and an independent Appeals Authority. There have been far reaching consequences on medical practice. The Commission construe the phrase 'Personal Injury by Accident' as damage to the human system which is not designed by the person injured: the implications of such a definition are briefly discussed. The administrative costs of any similar Scheme in the United Kingdom would be enormous and it is doubtful whether the benefits would justify the cost.

  18. Equipment failures and their contribution to industrial incidents and accidents in the manufacturing industry.

    PubMed

    Bourassa, Dominic; Gauthier, François; Abdul-Nour, Georges

    2016-01-01

    Accidental events in manufacturing industries can be caused by many factors, including work methods, lack of training, equipment design, maintenance and reliability. This study is aimed at determining the contribution of failures of commonly used industrial equipment, such as machines, tools and material handling equipment, to the chain of causality of industrial accidents and incidents. Based on a case study which aimed at the analysis of an existing pulp and paper company's accident database, this paper examines the number, type and gravity of the failures involved in these events and their causes. Results from this study show that equipment failures had a major effect on the number and severity of accidents accounted for in the database: 272 out of 773 accidental events were related to equipment failure, where 13 of them had direct human consequences. Failures that contributed directly or indirectly to these events are analyzed.

  19. [Hang-gliding accidents in high mountains. Apropos of 200 cases].

    PubMed

    Foray, J; Abrassart, S; Femmy, T; Aldilli, M

    1991-01-01

    A review of 200 cases of "paragliding" accidents in high mountain areas has been completed. The first flights have been murderous, a thesis written in 1987 in Grenoble showing seven dead out of 97 casualties. Since then the statistics seen to be improving as a consequence of the setting of regulations and the establishment of "paragliding" schools. The more frequent accidents happen on landing: in 70% of the cases fractures of the "tibiotarsienne", the wrist and the spinal column prevail. They happen to young adults between 20 and 40 years old, with a variable experience. Preventive measures consist in a greater prudence, a good physical condition and a precise aerological knowledge. The adepts of this sport have understood that wearing a helmet and appropriate shoes could reduce the gravity of the accidents. "Paragliding" if not a dangerous sport is certainly a risky one.

  20. Development of Northeast Asia Nuclear Power Plant Accident Simulator.

    PubMed

    Kim, Juyub; Kim, Juyoul; Po, Li-Chi Cliff

    2017-06-15

    A conclusion from the lessons learned after the March 2011 Fukushima Daiichi accident was that Korea needs a tool to estimate consequences from a major accident that could occur at a nuclear power plant located in a neighboring country. This paper describes a suite of computer-based codes to be used by Korea's nuclear emergency response staff for training and potentially operational support in Korea's national emergency preparedness and response program. The systems of codes, Northeast Asia Nuclear Accident Simulator (NANAS), consist of three modules: source-term estimation, atmospheric dispersion prediction and dose assessment. To quickly assess potential doses to the public in Korea, NANAS includes specific reactor data from the nuclear power plants in China, Japan and Taiwan. The completed simulator is demonstrated using data for a hypothetical release. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  1. Post-Chernobyl accident radioactivity measurements in the Comunidad Autonoma de Valencia, Spain.

    PubMed

    Ortiz, J; Ballesteros, L; Serradell, V

    1992-03-01

    Increased atmospheric radioactivity after the accident in Chernobyl was first detected on air filters. Measurements were begun in Valencia on May 2, 1986, with the maximum activity being observed around May 3-4, 1986. As a consequence of this accident, annual campaigns of measurements on migrating birds (several species of aquatic birds and song-thrushes) were started. The data corresponding to the campaign immediately after the accident (1986/87) show a generalized contamination (approximately 50% of the measured specimens). Significant levels of 134Cs, 137Cs and 110Agm were found. It is important to note that 110Agm is only present in Aythya ferina. In the successive campaigns in 1988/89 and 1989/91 few samples were found to be contaminated and only 137Cs was identified. Strontium-90 was measured and identified in some specimens, mainly in their bones.

  2. Injuries are not accidents

    PubMed Central

    Gutiérrez, María Isabel

    2014-01-01

    Injuries are the result of an acute exposure to exhort of energy or a consequence of a deficiency in a vital element that exceeds physiological thresholds resulting threatens life. They are classified as intentional or unintentional. Injuries are considered a global health issue because they cause more than 5 million deaths per year worldwide and they are an important contributor to the burden of disease, especially affecting people of low socioeconomic status in low- and middle-income countries. A common misconception exists where injuries are thought to be the same as accidents; however, accidents are largely used as chance events, without taken in consideration that all these are preventable. This review discusses injuries and accidents in the context of road traffic and emphasizes injuries as preventable events. An understanding of the essence of injuries enables the standardization of terminology in public use and facilitates the development of a culture of prevention among all of us. PMID:25386040

  3. School sports accidents: analysis of causes, modes, and frequencies.

    PubMed

    Kelm, J; Ahlhelm, F; Pape, D; Pitsch, W; Engel, C

    2001-01-01

    About 5% of all school children are seriously injured during physical education every year. Because of its influence on children's attitude toward sports and the economic aspects, an evaluation of causes and medical consequences is necessary. In this study, 213 school sports accidents were investigated. Besides diagnosis, the localization of injuries, as well as the duration of the sick leave were documented. Average age of injured students was 13 years. Most of the injured students blamed themselves for the accident. The most common injuries were sprains, contusions, and fractures. Main reasons for the accidents were faults in basic motion training. Playing soccer and basketball were the most frequent reasons for injuries. The upper extremity was more frequently involved than the lower extremity. Sports physicians and teachers should work out a program outlining the individual needs and capabilities of the injured students to reintegrate them into physical education.

  4. Agricultural implications of the Fukushima nuclear accident

    PubMed Central

    Nakanishi, Tomoko M.

    2016-01-01

    More than 4 years has passed since the accident at the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant. Immediately after the accident, 40 to 50 academic staff of the Graduate School of Agricultural and Life Sciences at the University of Tokyo created an independent team to monitor the behavior of the radioactive materials in the field and their effects on agricultural farm lands, forests, rivers, animals, etc. When the radioactive nuclides from the nuclear power plant fell, they were instantly adsorbed at the site where they first touched; consequently, the fallout was found as scattered spots on the surface of anything that was exposed to the air at the time of the accident. The adsorption has become stronger over time, so the radioactive nuclides are now difficult to remove. The findings of our study regarding the wide range of effects on agricultural fields are summarized in this report. PMID:27538845

  5. Bus accident analysis of routes with/without bus priority.

    PubMed

    Goh, Kelvin Chun Keong; Currie, Graham; Sarvi, Majid; Logan, David

    2014-04-01

    This paper summarises findings on road safety performance and bus-involved accidents in Melbourne along roads where bus priority measures had been applied. Results from an empirical analysis of the accident types revealed significant reduction in the proportion of accidents involving buses hitting stationary objects and vehicles, which suggests the effect of bus priority in addressing manoeuvrability issues for buses. A mixed-effects negative binomial (MENB) regression and back-propagation neural network (BPNN) modelling of bus accidents considering wider influences on accident rates at a route section level also revealed significant safety benefits when bus priority is provided. Sensitivity analyses done on the BPNN model showed general agreement in the predicted accident frequency between both models. The slightly better performance recorded by the MENB model results suggests merits in adopting a mixed effects modelling approach for accident count prediction in practice given its capability to account for unobserved location and time-specific factors. A major implication of this research is that bus priority in Melbourne's context acts to improve road safety and should be a major consideration for road management agencies when implementing bus priority and road schemes. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Costa, David A.; Cournoyer, Michael E.; Merhege, James F.

    Criticality is the state of a nuclear chain reacting medium when the chain reaction is just self-sustaining (or critical). Criticality is dependent on nine interrelated parameters. Moreover, we design criticality safety controls in order to constrain these parameters to minimize fissions and maximize neutron leakage and absorption in other materials, which makes criticality more difficult or impossible to achieve. We present the consequences of criticality accidents are discussed, the nine interrelated parameters that combine to affect criticality are described, and criticality safety controls used to minimize the likelihood of a criticality accident are presented.

  7. Implementation of numerical simulation techniques in analysis of the accidents in complex technological systems

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Klishin, G.S.; Seleznev, V.E.; Aleoshin, V.V.

    1997-12-31

    Gas industry enterprises such as main pipelines, compressor gas transfer stations, gas extracting complexes belong to the energy intensive industry. Accidents there can result into the catastrophes and great social, environmental and economic losses. Annually, according to the official data several dozens of large accidents take place at the pipes in the USA and Russia. That is why prevention of the accidents, analysis of the mechanisms of their development and prediction of their possible consequences are acute and important tasks nowadays. The accidents reasons are usually of a complicated character and can be presented as a complex combination of natural,more » technical and human factors. Mathematical and computer simulations are safe, rather effective and comparatively inexpensive methods of the accident analysis. It makes it possible to analyze different mechanisms of a failure occurrence and development, to assess its consequences and give recommendations to prevent it. Besides investigation of the failure cases, numerical simulation techniques play an important role in the treatment of the diagnostics results of the objects and in further construction of mathematical prognostic simulations of the object behavior in the period of time between two inspections. While solving diagnostics tasks and in the analysis of the failure cases, the techniques of theoretical mechanics, of qualitative theory of different equations, of mechanics of a continuous medium, of chemical macro-kinetics and optimizing techniques are implemented in the Conversion Design Bureau {number_sign}5 (DB{number_sign}5). Both universal and special numerical techniques and software (SW) are being developed in DB{number_sign}5 for solution of such tasks. Almost all of them are calibrated on the calculations of the simulated and full-scale experiments performed at the VNIIEF and MINATOM testing sites. It is worth noting that in the long years of work there has been established a fruitful and effective collaboration of theoreticians, mathematicians and experimentalists of the institute to solve such tasks.« less

  8. Future directions for transportation safety research

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2005-08-01

    Many opportunities now exist that can contribute significantly to preventing accidents, mitigating consequences, and improving responses to incidents in all modes. Two parallel and interrelated areas that offer particularly promising results are tech...

  9. Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program Reactor Safety Technologies Pathway Technical Program Plan

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Corradini, M. L.; Peko, D.; Farmer, M.

    In the aftermath of the March 2011 multi-unit accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant (Fukushima), the nuclear community has been reassessing certain safety assumptions about nuclear reactor plant design, operations and emergency actions, particularly with respect to extreme events that might occur and that are beyond each plant’s current design basis. Because of our significant domestic investment in nuclear reactor technology (99 operating reactors in the fleet of commercial LWRs with five under construction), the United States has been a major leader internationally in these activities. The U.S. nuclear industry is voluntarily pursuing a number of additional safetymore » initiatives. The NRC continues to evaluate and, where deemed appropriate, establish new requirements for ensuring adequate protection of public health and safety in the occurrence of low probability events at nuclear plants; (e.g., mitigation strategies for beyond design basis events initiated by external events like seismic or flooding initiators). The DOE has also played a major role in the U.S. response to the Fukushima accident. Initially, DOE worked with the Japanese and the international community to help develop a more complete understanding of the Fukushima accident progression and its consequences, and to respond to various safety concerns emerging from uncertainties about the nature of and the effects from the accident. DOE R&D activities are focused on providing scientific and technical insights, data, analyses methods that ultimately support industry efforts to enhance safety. These activities are expected to further enhance the safety performance of currently operating U.S. nuclear power plants as well as better characterize the safety performance of future U.S. plants. In pursuing this area of R&D, DOE recognizes that the commercial nuclear industry is ultimately responsible for the safe operation of licensed nuclear facilities. As such, industry is considered the primary “end user” of the results from this DOE-sponsored work. The response to the Fukushima accident has been global, and there is a continuing multinational interest in collaborations to better quantify accident consequences and to incorporate lessons learned from the accident. DOE will continue to seek opportunities to facilitate collaborations that are of value to the U.S. industry, particularly where the collaboration provides access to vital data from the accident or otherwise supports or leverages other important R&D work. The purpose of the Reactor Safety Technology R&D is to improve understanding of beyond design basis events and reduce uncertainty in severe accident progression, phenomenology, and outcomes using existing analytical codes and information gleaned from severe accidents, in particular the Fukushima Daiichi events. This information will be used to aid in developing mitigating strategies and improving severe accident management guidelines for the current light water reactor fleet.« less

  10. Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program: Reactor Safety Technologies Pathway Technical Program Plan

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Corradini, M. L.

    In the aftermath of the March 2011 multi-unit accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant (Fukushima), the nuclear community has been reassessing certain safety assumptions about nuclear reactor plant design, operations and emergency actions, particularly with respect to extreme events that might occur and that are beyond each plant’s current design basis. Because of our significant domestic investment in nuclear reactor technology (99 operating reactors in the fleet of commercial LWRs with five under construction), the United States has been a major leader internationally in these activities. The U.S. nuclear industry is voluntarily pursuing a number of additional safetymore » initiatives. The NRC continues to evaluate and, where deemed appropriate, establish new requirements for ensuring adequate protection of public health and safety in the occurrence of low probability events at nuclear plants; (e.g., mitigation strategies for beyond design basis events initiated by external events like seismic or flooding initiators). The DOE has also played a major role in the U.S. response to the Fukushima accident. Initially, DOE worked with the Japanese and the international community to help develop a more complete understanding of the Fukushima accident progression and its consequences, and to respond to various safety concerns emerging from uncertainties about the nature of and the effects from the accident. DOE R&D activities are focused on providing scientific and technical insights, data, analyses methods that ultimately support industry efforts to enhance safety. These activities are expected to further enhance the safety performance of currently operating U.S. nuclear power plants as well as better characterize the safety performance of future U.S. plants. In pursuing this area of R&D, DOE recognizes that the commercial nuclear industry is ultimately responsible for the safe operation of licensed nuclear facilities. As such, industry is considered the primary “end user” of the results from this DOE-sponsored work. The response to the Fukushima accident has been global, and there is a continuing multinational interest in collaborations to better quantify accident consequences and to incorporate lessons learned from the accident. DOE will continue to seek opportunities to facilitate collaborations that are of value to the U.S. industry, particularly where the collaboration provides access to vital data from the accident or otherwise supports or leverages other important R&D work. The purpose of the Reactor Safety Technology R&D is to improve understanding of beyond design basis events and reduce uncertainty in severe accident progression, phenomenology, and outcomes using existing analytical codes and information gleaned from severe accidents, in particular the Fukushima Daiichi events. This information will be used to aid in developing mitigating strategies and improving severe accident management guidelines for the current light water reactor fleet.« less

  11. APPLICATION OF TRAVEL TIME RELIABILITY FOR PERFORMANCE ORIENTED OPERATIONAL PLANNING OF EXPRESSWAYS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mehran, Babak; Nakamura, Hideki

    Evaluation of impacts of congestion improvement scheme s on travel time reliability is very significant for road authorities since travel time reliability repr esents operational performance of expressway segments. In this paper, a methodology is presented to estimate travel tim e reliability prior to implementation of congestion relief schemes based on travel time variation modeling as a function of demand, capacity, weather conditions and road accident s. For subject expressway segmen ts, traffic conditions are modeled over a whole year considering demand and capacity as random variables. Patterns of demand and capacity are generated for each five minute interval by appl ying Monte-Carlo simulation technique, and accidents are randomly generated based on a model that links acci dent rate to traffic conditions. A whole year analysis is performed by comparing de mand and available capacity for each scenario and queue length is estimated through shockwave analysis for each time in terval. Travel times are estimated from refined speed-flow relationships developed for intercity expressways and buffer time index is estimated consequently as a measure of travel time reliability. For validation, estimated reliability indices are compared with measured values from empirical data, and it is shown that the proposed method is suitable for operational evaluation and planning purposes.

  12. Females do not have more injury road accidents on Friday the 13th

    PubMed Central

    Radun, Igor; Summala, Heikki

    2004-01-01

    Background This study reinvestigated the recent finding that females – but not males – die in traffic accidents on Friday the 13th more often than on other Fridays (Näyhä S: Traffic deaths and superstition on Friday the 13th. Am J Psychiatry 2002, 159: 2110–2111). The current study used matched setting and injury accident data base that is more numerous than fatality data. If such an effect would be caused by impaired psychic and psychomotor functioning due to more frequent anxiety among women, it should also appear in injury crashes. Methods We used the national Finnish road accident database for 1989–2002. To control seasonal variation, 21 Fridays the 13th were compared in a matched design to previous and following Fridays, excluding all holidays, on number of accidents, male/female responsibility for accidents, and the number of dead, injured and overall number of active participants (drivers, pedestrians and bicyclists) as a consequence of the accident. Results There were no significant differences in any examined aspect of road injury accidents among the three Fridays, either in females or males. Women were not overrepresented in crashes that occurred on Fridays 13th. Conclusion There is no consistent evidence for females having more road traffic crashes on Fridays the 13th, based on deaths or road accident statistics. However, this does not imply a non-existent effect of superstition related anxiety on accident risk as no exposure-to-risk data are available. People who are anxious of "Black Friday" may stay home, or at least avoid driving a car. PMID:15546493

  13. A comparison of the hazard perception ability of accident-involved and accident-free motorcycle riders.

    PubMed

    Cheng, Andy S K; Ng, Terry C K; Lee, Hoe C

    2011-07-01

    Hazard perception is the ability to read the road and is closely related to involvement in traffic accidents. It consists of both cognitive and behavioral components. Within the cognitive component, visual attention is an important function of driving whereas driving behavior, which represents the behavioral component, can affect the hazard perception of the driver. Motorcycle riders are the most vulnerable types of road user. The primary purpose of this study was to deepen our understanding of the correlation of different subtypes of visual attention and driving violation behaviors and their effect on hazard perception between accident-free and accident-involved motorcycle riders. Sixty-three accident-free and 46 accident-involved motorcycle riders undertook four neuropsychological tests of attention (Digit Vigilance Test, Color Trails Test-1, Color Trails Test-2, and Symbol Digit Modalities Test), filled out the Chinese Motorcycle Rider Driving Violation (CMRDV) Questionnaire, and viewed a road-user-based hazard situation with an eye-tracking system to record the response latencies to potentially dangerous traffic situations. The results showed that both the divided and selective attention of accident-involved motorcycle riders were significantly inferior to those of accident-free motorcycle riders, and that accident-involved riders exhibited significantly higher driving violation behaviors and took longer to identify hazardous situations compared to their accident-free counterparts. However, the results of the regression analysis showed that aggressive driving violation CMRDV score significantly predicted hazard perception and accident involvement of motorcycle riders. Given that all participants were mature and experienced motorcycle riders, the most plausible explanation for the differences between them is their driving style (influenced by an undesirable driving attitude), rather than skill deficits per se. The present study points to the importance of conceptualizing the influence of different driving behaviors so as to enrich our understanding of the role of human factors in road accidents and consequently develop effective countermeasures to prevent traffic accidents involving motorcycles. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Government regulation of occupational safety: underground coal mine accidents 1973-75.

    PubMed Central

    Boden, L I

    1985-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to determine the influence of federal mine safety inspections on underground coal mine accidents. An economic incentives model is developed to relate federal enforcement activities to accident rates. The determinants of accident rates are analyzed for 535 coal mines during the period 1973-75. Estimates based on these data when applied to the model indicate that increasing inspections by 25 per cent would have produced a 13 per cent decline in fatal accidents and an 18 per cent decline in disabling accidents. PMID:3985237

  15. Government regulation of occupational safety: underground coal mine accidents 1973-75.

    PubMed

    Boden, L I

    1985-05-01

    The purpose of this paper is to determine the influence of federal mine safety inspections on underground coal mine accidents. An economic incentives model is developed to relate federal enforcement activities to accident rates. The determinants of accident rates are analyzed for 535 coal mines during the period 1973-75. Estimates based on these data when applied to the model indicate that increasing inspections by 25 per cent would have produced a 13 per cent decline in fatal accidents and an 18 per cent decline in disabling accidents.

  16. Assessment of accident severity in the construction industry using the Bayesian theorem.

    PubMed

    Alizadeh, Seyed Shamseddin; Mortazavi, Seyed Bagher; Mehdi Sepehri, Mohammad

    2015-01-01

    Construction is a major source of employment in many countries. In construction, workers perform a great diversity of activities, each one with a specific associated risk. The aim of this paper is to identify workers who are at risk of accidents with severe consequences and classify these workers to determine appropriate control measures. We defined 48 groups of workers and used the Bayesian theorem to estimate posterior probabilities about the severity of accidents at the level of individuals in construction sector. First, the posterior probabilities of injuries based on four variables were provided. Then the probabilities of injury for 48 groups of workers were determined. With regard to marginal frequency of injury, slight injury (0.856), fatal injury (0.086) and severe injury (0.058) had the highest probability of occurrence. It was observed that workers with <1 year's work experience (0.168) had the highest probability of injury occurrence. The first group of workers, who were extensively exposed to risk of severe and fatal accidents, involved workers ≥ 50 years old, married, with 1-5 years' work experience, who had no past accident experience. The findings provide a direction for more effective safety strategies and occupational accident prevention and emergency programmes.

  17. Modeling when and where a secondary accident occurs.

    PubMed

    Wang, Junhua; Liu, Boya; Fu, Ting; Liu, Shuo; Stipancic, Joshua

    2018-01-31

    The occurrence of secondary accidents leads to traffic congestion and road safety issues. Secondary accident prevention has become a major consideration in traffic incident management. This paper investigates the location and time of a potential secondary accident after the occurrence of an initial traffic accident. With accident data and traffic loop data collected over three years from California interstate freeways, a shock wave-based method was introduced to identify secondary accidents. A linear regression model and two machine learning algorithms, including a back-propagation neural network (BPNN) and a least squares support vector machine (LSSVM), were implemented to explore the distance and time gap between the initial and secondary accidents using inputs of crash severity, violation category, weather condition, tow away, road surface condition, lighting, parties involved, traffic volume, duration, and shock wave speed generated by the primary accident. From the results, the linear regression model was inadequate in describing the effect of most variables and its goodness-of-fit and accuracy in prediction was relatively poor. In the training programs, the BPNN and LSSVM demonstrated adequate goodness-of-fit, though the BPNN was superior with a higher CORR and lower MSE. The BPNN model also outperformed the LSSVM in time prediction, while both failed to provide adequate distance prediction. Therefore, the BPNN model could be used to forecast the time gap between initial and secondary accidents, which could be used by decision makers and incident management agencies to prevent or reduce secondary collisions. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Relationship between road traffic accidents and conflicts recorded by drive recorders.

    PubMed

    Lu, Guangquan; Cheng, Bo; Kuzumaki, Seigo; Mei, Bingsong

    2011-08-01

    Road traffic conflicts can be used to estimate the probability of accident occurrence, assess road safety, or evaluate road safety programs if the relationship between road traffic accidents and conflicts is known. To this end, we propose a model for the relationship between road traffic accidents and conflicts recorded by drive recorders (DRs). DRs were installed in 50 cars in Beijing to collect records of traffic conflicts. Data containing 1366 conflicts were collected in 193 days. The hourly distributions of conflicts and accidents were used to model the relationship between accidents and conflicts. To eliminate time series and base number effects, we defined and used 2 parameters: average annual number of accidents per 10,000 vehicles per hour and average number of conflicts per 10,000 vehicles per hour. A model was developed to describe the relationship between the two parameters. If A(i) = average annual number of accidents per 10,000 vehicles per hour at hour i, and E(i) = average number of conflicts per 10,000 vehicles per hour at hour i, the relationship can be expressed as [Formula in text] (α>0, β>0). The average number of traffic accidents increases as the number of conflicts rises, but the rate of increase decelerates as the number of conflicts increases further. The proposed model can describe the relationship between road traffic accidents and conflicts in a simple manner. According to our analysis, the model fits the present data.

  19. Cooperation and Defection at the Crossroads

    PubMed Central

    Abramson, Guillermo; Semeshenko, Viktoriya; Iglesias, José Roberto

    2013-01-01

    We study a simple traffic model with a non-signalized road intersection. In this model the car arriving from the right has precedence. The vehicle dynamics far from the crossing are governed by the rules introduced by Nagel and Paczuski, which define how drivers behave when braking or accelerating. We measure the average velocity of the ensemble of cars and its flow as a function of the density of cars on the roadway. An additional set of rules is defined to describe the dynamics at the intersection assuming a fraction of drivers that do not obey the rule of precedence. This problem is treated within a game-theory framework, where the drivers that obey the rule are cooperators and those who ignore it are defectors. We study the consequences of these behaviors as a function of the fraction of cooperators and defectors. The results show that cooperation is the best strategy because it maximizes the flow of vehicles and minimizes the number of accidents. A rather paradoxical effect is observed: for any percentage of defectors the number of accidents is larger when the density of cars is low because of the higher average velocity. PMID:23610596

  20. Assessment of the prevalence of occupational accidents and their influential actors in an electricity distribution company during a five-year period.

    PubMed

    Sadeghain, Marzieh; Farid, Ramin Ataei; Dormohammadi, Ali; Aghaei, Habib Allah; Rahmani, Abdolrasoul; Farhadi, Rozita; Eskandari, Rasoul; Karchani, Mohsen

    2013-01-01

    Occupational accidents have been considered as one of the most important crippling factors contributing to disabilities and life-threatening situations in many countries. This study was conducted to survey the prevalence of occupational accidents and the factors of that lead to injuries in an Electricity Distribution Company during a five-year period. In this descriptive study, the accident report form included items asking about the season of the year when the accident occurred, the ages and the average age of those injured, the type of employment, work experience, nature of the injuries that occurred, parts of the body affected, treatments that were applied, average number of days lost per accident, the levels of education of those involved, and their marital status. Data was analyzed using SPSS. A total of 66 Electricity Distribution Company workers were determined to be suffering from injuries due to accidents. The accidents mostly occurred in the summer (33%). Most of the injured workers (16.7%) belonged to the age groups of 25 to 29 and 40 to 44; there were no accidents reported for workers who were less than 20. About 48% of the accident victims had to be hospitalized. Furthermore, 35% of the accident victims were treated in outpatient clinics, and 7.4% of the accident victims died. We demonstrated that there were significant relationships between: 1) marital status and accidental injuries (P<0.001); 2) the average age of those injured among both permanent and temporary workers (P<0.001), 3) the level of education and the consequences of the accidents (P<0.001), and 4) the average of days lost per accident in both the permanent and temporary workers (P<0.001). In this study, no significant relationships were found between the accident occurrence and age (P>0.05) or work experience and the distribution of the accidents (P>0.05). This study indicated that most of the injuries in these accidents were related to the nature of employment, marital status, and level of education. The results showed the necessity for providing appropriate safety training for the workers.

  1. Assessment of the prevalence of occupational accidents and their influential actors in an electricity distribution company during a five-year period

    PubMed Central

    Sadeghain, Marzieh; Farid, Ramin Ataei; Dormohammadi, Ali; Aghaei, Habib Allah; Rahmani, Abdolrasoul; Farhadi, Rozita; Eskandari, Rasoul; Karchani, Mohsen

    2013-01-01

    Background: Occupational accidents have been considered as one of the most important crippling factors contributing to disabilities and life-threatening situations in many countries. This study was conducted to survey the prevalence of occupational accidents and the factors of that lead to injuries in an Electricity Distribution Company during a five-year period. Methods: In this descriptive study, the accident report form included items asking about the season of the year when the accident occurred, the ages and the average age of those injured, the type of employment, work experience, nature of the injuries that occurred, parts of the body affected, treatments that were applied, average number of days lost per accident, the levels of education of those involved, and their marital status. Data was analyzed using SPSS. Results: A total of 66 Electricity Distribution Company workers were determined to be suffering from injuries due to accidents. The accidents mostly occurred in the summer (33%). Most of the injured workers (16.7%) belonged to the age groups of 25 to 29 and 40 to 44; there were no accidents reported for workers who were less than 20. About 48% of the accident victims had to be hospitalized. Furthermore, 35% of the accident victims were treated in outpatient clinics, and 7.4% of the accident victims died. We demonstrated that there were significant relationships between: 1) marital status and accidental injuries (P<0.001); 2) the average age of those injured among both permanent and temporary workers (P<0.001), 3) the level of education and the consequences of the accidents (P<0.001), and 4) the average of days lost per accident in both the permanent and temporary workers (P<0.001). In this study, no significant relationships were found between the accident occurrence and age (P>0.05) or work experience and the distribution of the accidents (P>0.05). Conclusion: This study indicated that most of the injuries in these accidents were related to the nature of employment, marital status, and level of education. The results showed the necessity for providing appropriate safety training for the workers. PMID:26120397

  2. Time changes in radiocesium wash-off from various land uses after the Fukushima Daiichi NPP accident

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Onda, Yuichi; Kato, Hiroaki; Yoshimura, Kazuya; Tsujimura, Maki; Wakiyama, Yoshifumi; Taniguchi, Keisuke; Sakaguchi, Aya; Yamamoto, Masayoshi

    2014-05-01

    A number of studies have been conducted to monitor and model the time series change of radiocesium transfer through aquatic systems after significant fallout, especially from the Chernobyl disaster. However, no data is available for the temporal changes of radiocesium concentration in environmental materials such as soil and water after the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident. Our research team has been monitoring the environmental consequences of radioactive contamination just after the Fukushima Daiichi NPP accident in Yamakiya-district, Kawamata town, Fukushima prefecture. Research items are listed below. 1. Radiocesium wash-off from the runoff-erosion plot under different land use. 2. Measurement of radiocesium transfer in forest environment, in association with hydrological pathways such as throughfall and overlandflow on hillslope. 3. Monitoring on radiocesium concentration in soil water, ground water, and spring water. 4. Monitoring of dissolved and particulate radiocesium concentration in river water, and stream water from the forested catchment. 5.Measurement of radiocesium content in drain water and suspended sediment from paddy field. Our monitoring result demonstrated that the Cs-137 concentration in eroded sediment from the runoff-erosion plot has been almost constant for the past 3 years, however the Cs-137 concentration of suspended sediment from the forested catchment showed slight decrease through time. On the other hand, the suspended sediment from paddy field and those in river water from large catchments exhibited rapid decrease in Cs-137 concentration with time. The decreasing trend of Cs-137 concentration were fitted by the two-component exponential model, differences in decreasing rate of the model were compared and discussed among various land uses and catchment scales. Such analysis can provide important insights into the future prediction of the radiocesium wash-off from catchments with different land uses.

  3. Study of self test devices

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1976-07-15

    The study was conducted to determine whether individuals might change their drinking driving behavior if they are informed of their intoxication level and its implications relative to accident involvement and legal consequences. Individuals at public...

  4. [Aspects of aetiology of neuro-psychic disorders in male liquidators of Chernobyl nuclear power accident consequences].

    PubMed

    Skavysh, V A

    2009-01-01

    The author considered aetiology of neuro-psychic disorders in liquidators of Chernobyl nuclear power accident consequences, demonstrated scientific value of studying the liquidators cohort, as they were protected from internal radiation factors and reside on radiation "pure" territories. External radiation doses in those liquidators vary from 16 cGy to 18.7 +/- 10.8 cGy, according to the author. Catamnesis enabled to doubt radiation aetiology of psychic organic syndrome revealed in 1991-1994 by clinical and instrumental studies among 53.6% of 213 male examinees. According to the author, prolonged over 1-2 months external radiation of low dose could not cause health deterioration in adult males. Diagnosed psychic organic syndrome and vascular encephalopathy in some cases could have alcohol aetiology. This conclusion is not extrapolated to the whole liquidators cohort.

  5. An Evaluation of the Hazard Prediction and Assessment Capability (HPAC) Software’s Ability to Model the Chornobyl Accident

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2002-03-01

    source term. Several publications provided a thorough accounting of the accident, including “ Chernobyl Record” [Mould], and the NRC technical report...Report on the Accident at the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Station” [NUREG-1250]. The most comprehensive study of transport models to predict the...from the Chernobyl Accident: The ATMES Report” [Klug, et al.]. The Atmospheric Transport 5 Model Evaluation Study (ATMES) report used data

  6. From military to civil loadings: Preliminary numerical-based thorax injury criteria investigations.

    PubMed

    Goumtcha, Aristide Awoukeng; Bodo, Michèle; Taddei, Lorenzo; Roth, Sébastien

    2016-03-01

    Effects of the impact of a mechanical structure on the human body are of great interest in the understanding of body trauma. Experimental tests have led to first conclusions about the dangerousness of an impact observing impact forces or displacement time history with PMHS (Post Mortem human Subjects). They have allowed providing interesting data for the development and the validation of numerical biomechanical models. These models, widely used in the framework of automotive crashworthiness, have led to the development of numerical-based injury criteria and tolerance thresholds. The aim of this process is to improve the safety of mechanical structures in interaction with the body. In a military context, investigations both at experimental and numerical level are less successfully completed. For both military and civil frameworks, the literature list a number of numerical analysis trying to propose injury mechanisms, and tolerance thresholds based on biofidelic Finite Element (FE) models of different part of the human body. However the link between both frameworks is not obvious, since lots of parameters are different: great mass impacts at relatively low velocity for civil impacts (falls, automotive crashworthiness) and low mass at very high velocity for military loadings (ballistic, blast). In this study, different accident cases were investigated, and replicated with a previously developed and validated FE model of the human thorax named Hermaphrodite Universal Biomechanical YX model (HUBYX model). These previous validations included replications of standard experimental tests often used to validate models in the context of automotive industry, experimental ballistic tests in high speed dynamic impact and also numerical replication of blast loading test ensuring its biofidelity. In order to extend the use of this model in other frameworks, some real-world accidents were reconstructed, and consequences of these loadings on the FE model were explored. These various numerical replications of accident coming from different contexts raise the question about the ability of a FE model to correctly predict several kinds of trauma, from blast or ballistic impacts to falls, sports or automotive ones in a context of numerical injury mechanisms and tolerance limits investigations. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  7. Interagency Nuclear Safety Review Panel: Biomedical and Environmental Effects Subpanel report for Galileo

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Anspaugh, L.R.; Blanton, J.O.; Bollinger, L.J.

    1989-10-01

    This report of the Biomedical and Environmental Effects Subpanel (BEES) of the Interagency Nuclear Safety Review Panel (INSRP), for the Galileo space mission addresses the possible radiological consequences of postulated accidents that release radioactivity into the environment. This report presents estimates of the consequences and uncertainties given that the source term is released into the environment. 10 refs., 6 tabs.

  8. Effects of organizational complexity and resources on construction site risk.

    PubMed

    Forteza, Francisco J; Carretero-Gómez, Jose M; Sesé, Albert

    2017-09-01

    Our research is aimed at studying the relationship between risk level and organizational complexity and resources on constructions sites. Our general hypothesis is that site complexity increases risk, whereas more resources of the structure decrease risk. A Structural Equation Model (SEM) approach was adopted to validate our theoretical model. To develop our study, 957 building sites in Spain were visited and assessed in 2003-2009. All needed data were obtained using a specific tool developed by the authors to assess site risk, structure and resources (Construction Sites Risk Assessment Tool, or CONSRAT). This tool operationalizes the variables to fit our model, specifically, via a site risk index (SRI) and 10 organizational variables. Our random sample is composed largely of small building sites with general high levels of risk, moderate complexity, and low resources on site. The model obtained adequate fit, and results showed empirical evidence that the factors of complexity and resources can be considered predictors of site risk level. Consequently, these results can help companies, managers of construction and regulators to identify which organizational aspects should be improved to prevent risks on sites and consequently accidents. Copyright © 2017 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Archetypes for Organisational Safety

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Marais, Karen; Leveson, Nancy G.

    2003-01-01

    We propose a framework using system dynamics to model the dynamic behavior of organizations in accident analysis. Most current accident analysis techniques are event-based and do not adequately capture the dynamic complexity and non-linear interactions that characterize accidents in complex systems. In this paper we propose a set of system safety archetypes that model common safety culture flaws in organizations, i.e., the dynamic behaviour of organizations that often leads to accidents. As accident analysis and investigation tools, the archetypes can be used to develop dynamic models that describe the systemic and organizational factors contributing to the accident. The archetypes help clarify why safety-related decisions do not always result in the desired behavior, and how independent decisions in different parts of the organization can combine to impact safety.

  10. Fukushima Daiichi Radionuclide Inventories

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Cardoni, Jeffrey N.; Jankovsky, Zachary Kyle

    Radionuclide inventories are generated to permit detailed analyses of the Fukushima Daiichi meltdowns. This is necessary information for severe accident calculations, dose calculations, and source term and consequence analyses. Inventories are calculated using SCALE6 and compared to values predicted by international researchers supporting the OECD/NEA's Benchmark Study on the Accident at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station (BSAF). Both sets of inventory information are acceptable for best-estimate analyses of the Fukushima reactors. Consistent nuclear information for severe accident codes, including radionuclide class masses and core decay powers, are also derived from the SCALE6 analyses. Key nuclide activity ratios are calculated asmore » functions of burnup and nuclear data in order to explore the utility for nuclear forensics and support future decommissioning efforts.« less

  11. Several aspects of descriptive epidemiology of hematological malignancies in adult population of Ukraine, Belarus and Russian Federation after Chornobyl accident.

    PubMed

    Guslitser, N; Zavelevich, M P; Koval, S V; Gluzman, D F

    2016-12-01

    Chornobyl impact on the health of adult population in Ukraine, Belarus and Russian Federation was a subject of several studies. However, the studies of the effects of Chornobyl on leukemia in adult populations in post-Soviet countries are scarce and the results are contradictory up to present. The results of the epidemiological studies of the oncohematological consequences of Chornobyl accident are briefly reviewed with particular focus on pre-Chornobyl and post-Chornobyl trends in leukemia incidence in Ukraine, Belarus and Russian Federation as well as in small territories of these countries with various levels of radionuclide contamination. This article is a part of a Special Issue entitled "The Chornobyl Nuclear Accident: Thirty Years After".

  12. Lessons Learned in Protection of the Public for the Accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant.

    PubMed

    Callen, Jessica; Homma, Toshimitsu

    2017-06-01

    What insights can the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant provide in the reality of decision making on actions to protect the public during a severe reactor and spent fuel pool emergency? In order to answer this question, and with the goal of limiting the consequences of any future emergencies at a nuclear power plant due to severe conditions, this paper presents the main actions taken in response to the emergency in the form of a timeline. The focus of this paper is those insights concerning the progression of an accident due to severe conditions at a light water reactor nuclear power plant that must be understood in order to protect the public.

  13. The long-term impact of a man-made disaster: An examination of a small town in the aftermath of the Three Mile Island Nuclear Reactor Accident.

    PubMed

    Goldsteen, R; Schorr, J K

    1982-03-01

    This paper explores the long-term effects of a nuclear accident on residents' perceptions of their physical and mental health, their trust of public officials, and their attitudes toward the future risks of nuclear power generation In their community. We find that in the period after the accident at Three Mile Island that there are constant or Increasing levels of distress reported by community residents. We conclude that the effects of a technological disaster may often be more enduring than those natural disaster and that greater research efforts should be made to Investigate the long-term consequences of man-made catastrophies of all types.

  14. Modelling road accidents: An approach using structural time series

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Junus, Noor Wahida Md; Ismail, Mohd Tahir

    2014-09-01

    In this paper, the trend of road accidents in Malaysia for the years 2001 until 2012 was modelled using a structural time series approach. The structural time series model was identified using a stepwise method, and the residuals for each model were tested. The best-fitted model was chosen based on the smallest Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and prediction error variance. In order to check the quality of the model, a data validation procedure was performed by predicting the monthly number of road accidents for the year 2012. Results indicate that the best specification of the structural time series model to represent road accidents is the local level with a seasonal model.

  15. A combined M5P tree and hazard-based duration model for predicting urban freeway traffic accident durations.

    PubMed

    Lin, Lei; Wang, Qian; Sadek, Adel W

    2016-06-01

    The duration of freeway traffic accidents duration is an important factor, which affects traffic congestion, environmental pollution, and secondary accidents. Among previous studies, the M5P algorithm has been shown to be an effective tool for predicting incident duration. M5P builds a tree-based model, like the traditional classification and regression tree (CART) method, but with multiple linear regression models as its leaves. The problem with M5P for accident duration prediction, however, is that whereas linear regression assumes that the conditional distribution of accident durations is normally distributed, the distribution for a "time-to-an-event" is almost certainly nonsymmetrical. A hazard-based duration model (HBDM) is a better choice for this kind of a "time-to-event" modeling scenario, and given this, HBDMs have been previously applied to analyze and predict traffic accidents duration. Previous research, however, has not yet applied HBDMs for accident duration prediction, in association with clustering or classification of the dataset to minimize data heterogeneity. The current paper proposes a novel approach for accident duration prediction, which improves on the original M5P tree algorithm through the construction of a M5P-HBDM model, in which the leaves of the M5P tree model are HBDMs instead of linear regression models. Such a model offers the advantage of minimizing data heterogeneity through dataset classification, and avoids the need for the incorrect assumption of normality for traffic accident durations. The proposed model was then tested on two freeway accident datasets. For each dataset, the first 500 records were used to train the following three models: (1) an M5P tree; (2) a HBDM; and (3) the proposed M5P-HBDM, and the remainder of data were used for testing. The results show that the proposed M5P-HBDM managed to identify more significant and meaningful variables than either M5P or HBDMs. Moreover, the M5P-HBDM had the lowest overall mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Accident rates and types among self-employed private forest owners.

    PubMed

    Lindroos, Ola; Burström, Lage

    2010-11-01

    Half of all Swedish forests are owned by private individuals, and at least 215,000 people work in these privately owned forest holdings. However, only lethal accidents are systematically monitored among self-employed forest workers. Therefore, data from the registries of the Swedish Work Environment Authority, the Labor Insurance Organization and the regional University Hospital in Umeå were gathered to allow us to perform a more in-depth assessment of the rate and types of accidents that occurred among private forest owners. We found large differences between the registries in the type and number of accidents that were reported. We encountered difficulties in defining "self-employed forest worker" and also in determining whether the accidents that did occur happened during work or leisure time. Consequently, the estimates for the accident rate that we obtained varied from 32 to > or = 4300 injured persons per year in Sweden, depending on the registry that was consulted, the definition of the sample population that was used, and the accident severity definition that was employed. Nevertheless, the different registries gave a consistent picture of the types of accidents that occur while individuals are participating in self-employed forestry work. Severe accidents were relatively common, as self-employed forestry work fatalities constituted 7% of the total number of fatalities in the work authority registry. Falling trees were associated with many of these fatal accidents as well as with accidents that resulted in severe non-fatal injuries. Thus, unsafe work methods appeared more related to the occurrence of an accident than the equipment that was being used at the time of the accident (e.g., a chainsaw). Improvement of the workers' skills should therefore be considered to be an important prevention measure that should be undertaken in this field. The challenges in improving the safety in these smallest of companies, which fall somewhere between the purview of occupational and consumer safety, are exemplified and discussed. 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Zero-state Markov switching count-data models: an empirical assessment.

    PubMed

    Malyshkina, Nataliya V; Mannering, Fred L

    2010-01-01

    In this study, a two-state Markov switching count-data model is proposed as an alternative to zero-inflated models to account for the preponderance of zeros sometimes observed in transportation count data, such as the number of accidents occurring on a roadway segment over some period of time. For this accident-frequency case, zero-inflated models assume the existence of two states: one of the states is a zero-accident count state, which has accident probabilities that are so low that they cannot be statistically distinguished from zero, and the other state is a normal-count state, in which counts can be non-negative integers that are generated by some counting process, for example, a Poisson or negative binomial. While zero-inflated models have come under some criticism with regard to accident-frequency applications - one fact is undeniable - in many applications they provide a statistically superior fit to the data. The Markov switching approach we propose seeks to overcome some of the criticism associated with the zero-accident state of the zero-inflated model by allowing individual roadway segments to switch between zero and normal-count states over time. An important advantage of this Markov switching approach is that it allows for the direct statistical estimation of the specific roadway-segment state (i.e., zero-accident or normal-count state) whereas traditional zero-inflated models do not. To demonstrate the applicability of this approach, a two-state Markov switching negative binomial model (estimated with Bayesian inference) and standard zero-inflated negative binomial models are estimated using five-year accident frequencies on Indiana interstate highway segments. It is shown that the Markov switching model is a viable alternative and results in a superior statistical fit relative to the zero-inflated models.

  18. Aircraft Loss of Control Study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jacobson, Steven R.

    2010-01-01

    Loss of control has become the leading cause of jet fatalities worldwide. Aside from their frequency of occurrence, accidents resulting from loss of aircraft control seize the public s attention by yielding large numbers of fatalities in a single event. In response to the rising threat to aviation safety, NASA's Aviation Safety Program has conducted a study of the loss of control problem. This study gathered four types of information pertaining to loss of control accidents: (1) statistical data; (2) individual accident reports that cite loss of control as a contributing factor; (3) previous meta-analyses of loss of control accidents; and (4) inputs solicited from aircraft manufacturers, air carriers, researchers, and other industry stakeholders. Using these information resources, the study team identified causal factors that were cited in the greatest number of loss of control accidents, and which were emphasized most by industry stakeholders. For each causal factor that was linked to loss of control, the team solicited ideas about what solutions are required and future research efforts that could potentially help avoid their occurrence or mitigate their consequences when they occurred in flight.

  19. Consequences and countermeasures in a nuclear power accident: Chernobyl experience.

    PubMed

    Kirichenko, Vladimir A; Kirichenko, Alexander V; Werts, Day E

    2012-09-01

    Despite the tragic accidents in Fukushima and Chernobyl, the nuclear power industry will continue to contribute to the production of electric energy worldwide until there are efficient and sustainable alternative sources of energy. The Chernobyl nuclear accident, which occurred 26 years ago in the former Soviet Union, released an immense amount of radioactivity over vast territories of Belarus, Ukraine, and the Russian Federation, extending into northern Europe, and became the most severe accident in the history of the nuclear industry. This disaster was a result of numerous factors including inadequate nuclear power plant design, human errors, and violation of safety measures. The lessons learned from nuclear accidents will continue to strengthen the safety design of new reactor installations, but with more than 400 active nuclear power stations worldwide and 104 reactors in the Unites States, it is essential to reassess fundamental issues related to the Chernobyl experience as it continues to evolve. This article summarizes early and late events of the incident, the impact on thyroid health, and attempts to reduce agricultural radioactive contamination.

  20. Nuclear risk analysis of the Ulysses mission

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bartram, Bart W.; Vaughan, Frank R.; Englehart, Richard W., Dr.

    1991-01-01

    The use of a radioisotope thermoelectric generator fueled with plutonium-238 dioxide on the Space Shuttle-launched Ulysses mission implies some level of risk due to potential accidents. This paper describes the method used to quantify risks in the Ulysses mission Final Safety Analysis Report prepared for the U.S. Department of Energy. The starting point for the analysis described herein is following input of source term probability distributions from the General Electric Company. A Monte Carlo technique is used to develop probability distributions of radiological consequences for a range of accident scenarios thoughout the mission. Factors affecting radiological consequences are identified, the probability distribution of the effect of each factor determined, and the functional relationship among all the factors established. The probability distributions of all the factor effects are then combined using a Monte Carlo technique. The results of the analysis are presented in terms of complementary cumulative distribution functions (CCDF) by mission sub-phase, phase, and the overall mission. The CCDFs show the total probability that consequences (calculated health effects) would be equal to or greater than a given value.

  1. Measuring pedestrian volumes and conflicts. Volume 2, Accident prediction model

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1987-12-01

    This final report presents the findings, conclusions, and recommendations of the study conducted to model pedestrian/vehicle accidents. A group-type analysis approach for the prediction of pedestrian/vehicle accidents using pedestrian/vehicle conflic...

  2. Health effects models for nuclear power plant accident consequence analysis: Low LET radiation: Part 2, Scientific bases for health effects models

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Abrahamson, S.; Bender, M.; Book, S.

    1989-05-01

    This report provides dose-response models intended to be used in estimating the radiological health effects of nuclear power plant accidents. Models of early and continuing effects, cancers and thyroid nodules, and genetic effects are provided. Two-parameter Weibull hazard functions are recommended for estimating the risks of early and continuing health effects. Three potentially lethal early effects -- the hematopoietic, pulmonary and gastrointestinal syndromes -- are considered. Linear and linear-quadratic models are recommended for estimating cancer risks. Parameters are given for analyzing the risks of seven types of cancer in adults -- leukemia, bone, lung, breast, gastrointestinal, thyroid and ''other''. Themore » category, ''other'' cancers, is intended to reflect the combined risks of multiple myeloma, lymphoma, and cancers of the bladder, kidney, brain, ovary, uterus and cervix. Models of childhood cancers due to in utero exposure are also provided. For most cancers, both incidence and mortality are addressed. Linear and linear-quadratic models are also recommended for assessing genetic risks. Five classes of genetic disease -- dominant, x-linked, aneuploidy, unbalanced translocation and multifactorial diseases --are considered. In addition, the impact of radiation-induced genetic damage on the incidence of peri-implantation embryo losses is discussed. The uncertainty in modeling radiological health risks is addressed by providing central, upper, and lower estimates of all model parameters. Data are provided which should enable analysts to consider the timing and severity of each type of health risk. 22 refs., 14 figs., 51 tabs.« less

  3. Insights Gained from Forensic Analysis with MELCOR of the Fukushima-Daiichi Accidents.

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Andrews, Nathan C.; Gauntt, Randall O.

    Since the accidents at Fukushima-Daiichi, Sandia National Laboratories has been modeling these accident scenarios using the severe accident analysis code, MELCOR. MELCOR is a widely used computer code developed at Sandia National Laboratories since ~1982 for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Insights from the modeling of these accidents is being used to better inform future code development and potentially improved accident management. To date, our necessity to better capture in-vessel thermal-hydraulic and ex-vessel melt coolability and concrete interactions has led to the implementation of new models. The most recent analyses, presented in this paper, have been in support of themore » of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development Nuclear Energy Agency’s (OECD/NEA) Benchmark Study of the Accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station (BSAF) Project. The goal of this project is to accurately capture the source term from all three releases and then model the atmospheric dispersion. In order to do this, a forensic approach is being used in which available plant data and release timings is being used to inform the modeled MELCOR accident scenario. For example, containment failures, core slumping events and lower head failure timings are all enforced parameters in these analyses. This approach is fundamentally different from a blind code assessment analysis often used in standard problem exercises. The timings of these events are informed by representative spikes or decreases in plant data. The combination of improvements to the MELCOR source code resulting from analysis previous accident analysis and this forensic approach has allowed Sandia to generate representative and plausible source terms for all three accidents at Fukushima Daiichi out to three weeks after the accident to capture both early and late releases. In particular, using the source terms developed by MELCOR, the MACCS software code, which models atmospheric dispersion and deposition, we are able to reasonably capture the deposition of radionuclides to the northwest of the reactor site.« less

  4. Clustering-based classification of road traffic accidents using hierarchical clustering and artificial neural networks.

    PubMed

    Taamneh, Madhar; Taamneh, Salah; Alkheder, Sharaf

    2017-09-01

    Artificial neural networks (ANNs) have been widely used in predicting the severity of road traffic crashes. All available information about previously occurred accidents is typically used for building a single prediction model (i.e., classifier). Too little attention has been paid to the differences between these accidents, leading, in most cases, to build less accurate predictors. Hierarchical clustering is a well-known clustering method that seeks to group data by creating a hierarchy of clusters. Using hierarchical clustering and ANNs, a clustering-based classification approach for predicting the injury severity of road traffic accidents was proposed. About 6000 road accidents occurred over a six-year period from 2008 to 2013 in Abu Dhabi were used throughout this study. In order to reduce the amount of variation in data, hierarchical clustering was applied on the data set to organize it into six different forms, each with different number of clusters (i.e., clusters from 1 to 6). Two ANN models were subsequently built for each cluster of accidents in each generated form. The first model was built and validated using all accidents (training set), whereas only 66% of the accidents were used to build the second model, and the remaining 34% were used to test it (percentage split). Finally, the weighted average accuracy was computed for each type of models in each from of data. The results show that when testing the models using the training set, clustering prior to classification achieves (11%-16%) more accuracy than without using clustering, while the percentage split achieves (2%-5%) more accuracy. The results also suggest that partitioning the accidents into six clusters achieves the best accuracy if both types of models are taken into account.

  5. Inverse modelling of radionuclide release rates using gamma dose rate observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hamburger, Thomas; Stohl, Andreas; von Haustein, Christoph; Thummerer, Severin; Wallner, Christian

    2014-05-01

    Severe accidents in nuclear power plants such as the historical accident in Chernobyl 1986 or the more recent disaster in the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant in 2011 have drastic impacts on the population and environment. The hazardous consequences reach out on a national and continental scale. Environmental measurements and methods to model the transport and dispersion of the released radionuclides serve as a platform to assess the regional impact of nuclear accidents - both, for research purposes and, more important, to determine the immediate threat to the population. However, the assessments of the regional radionuclide activity concentrations and the individual exposure to radiation dose underlie several uncertainties. For example, the accurate model representation of wet and dry deposition. One of the most significant uncertainty, however, results from the estimation of the source term. That is, the time dependent quantification of the released spectrum of radionuclides during the course of the nuclear accident. The quantification of the source terms of severe nuclear accidents may either remain uncertain (e.g. Chernobyl, Devell et al., 1995) or rely on rather rough estimates of released key radionuclides given by the operators. Precise measurements are mostly missing due to practical limitations during the accident. Inverse modelling can be used to realise a feasible estimation of the source term (Davoine and Bocquet, 2007). Existing point measurements of radionuclide activity concentrations are therefore combined with atmospheric transport models. The release rates of radionuclides at the accident site are then obtained by improving the agreement between the modelled and observed concentrations (Stohl et al., 2012). The accuracy of the method and hence of the resulting source term depends amongst others on the availability, reliability and the resolution in time and space of the observations. Radionuclide activity concentrations are observed on a relatively sparse grid and the temporal resolution of available data may be low within the order of hours or a day. Gamma dose rates on the other hand are observed routinely on a much denser grid and higher temporal resolution. Gamma dose rate measurements contain no explicit information on the observed spectrum of radionuclides and have to be interpreted carefully. Nevertheless, they provide valuable information for the inverse evaluation of the source term due to their availability (Saunier et al., 2013). We present a new inversion approach combining an atmospheric dispersion model and observations of radionuclide activity concentrations and gamma dose rates to obtain the source term of radionuclides. We use the Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART (Stohl et al., 1998; Stohl et al., 2005) to model the atmospheric transport of the released radionuclides. The gamma dose rates are calculated from the modelled activity concentrations. The inversion method uses a Bayesian formulation considering uncertainties for the a priori source term and the observations (Eckhardt et al., 2008). The a priori information on the source term is a first guess. The gamma dose rate observations will be used with inverse modelling to improve this first guess and to retrieve a reliable source term. The details of this method will be presented at the conference. This work is funded by the Bundesamt für Strahlenschutz BfS, Forschungsvorhaben 3612S60026. References Davoine, X. and Bocquet, M., Atmos. Chem. Phys., 7, 1549-1564, 2007. Devell, L., et al., OCDE/GD(96)12, 1995. Eckhardt, S., et al., Atmos. Chem. Phys., 8, 3881-3897, 2008. Saunier, O., et al., Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 11403-11421, 2013. Stohl, A., et al., Atmos. Environ., 32, 4245-4264, 1998. Stohl, A., et al., Atmos. Chem. Phys., 5, 2461-2474, 2005. Stohl, A., et al., Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 2313-2343, 2012.

  6. Major workplace related accidents in Singapore: A major trauma centre's experience.

    PubMed

    Ng, Zhi Xu; Teo, Li Tserng; Go, Karen T S; Yeo, Yen Teng; Chiu, Ming Terk

    2010-12-01

    Major workplace related accidents pose a significant healthcare resource challenge in Singapore. Our study looks at the epidemiology of patients who were admitted for workplace related accidents, in a single institution, with an Injury Severity Score of >9. There were 196 cases of major workplace related accidents admitted between January 2006 and December 2007. The median age of patients admitted was 37 years with a large percentage being males (95.4%) and non-residents (57.1%). The most common ethnic group was Chinese (53.1%) followed by Indians (23.5%). The most common mechanism of injury was fall from height (66.3%) followed by injuries as a result of falling objects at work (21.9%). The percentage of patients who required surgical intervention was 69.9%. Patients admitted for major workplace related accidents had a median length of stay of 5 days in the hospital, a median length of 24 days of medical leave (ML), certifying them unfit for duty and the average cost of stay for each patient was S$11,000. We have a better understanding of the epidemiology and socio-economic impact of workplace related accidents through this study. Workplace related accidents result in significant number of man-days lost from work and monetary cost to employers, medical insurance and the hospital. With an improved understanding, we propose methods to prevent and reduce such accidents in future. A direct consequence of which will be the possible reduction of hospitalisation costs and better allocation of healthcare resources in the future.

  7. Do alcohol excise taxes affect traffic accidents? Evidence from Estonia.

    PubMed

    Saar, Indrek

    2015-01-01

    This article examines the association between alcohol excise tax rates and alcohol-related traffic accidents in Estonia. Monthly time series of traffic accidents involving drunken motor vehicle drivers from 1998 through 2013 were regressed on real average alcohol excise tax rates while controlling for changes in economic conditions and the traffic environment. Specifically, regression models with autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) errors were estimated in order to deal with serial correlation in residuals. Counterfactual models were also estimated in order to check the robustness of the results, using the level of non-alcohol-related traffic accidents as a dependent variable. A statistically significant (P <.01) strong negative relationship between the real average alcohol excise tax rate and alcohol-related traffic accidents was disclosed under alternative model specifications. For instance, the regression model with ARIMA (0, 1, 1)(0, 1, 1) errors revealed that a 1-unit increase in the tax rate is associated with a 1.6% decrease in the level of accidents per 100,000 population involving drunk motor vehicle drivers. No similar association was found in the cases of counterfactual models for non-alcohol-related traffic accidents. This article indicates that the level of alcohol-related traffic accidents in Estonia has been affected by changes in real average alcohol excise taxes during the period 1998-2013. Therefore, in addition to other measures, the use of alcohol taxation is warranted as a policy instrument in tackling alcohol-related traffic accidents.

  8. [Fatal occupational accidents in Lombardy].

    PubMed

    Pianosi, G

    1995-01-01

    All fatal occupational accidents compensated in Lombardy from 1984 to 1989 were analyzed (1259 cases): significant differences between geographical distribution of fatal occupational accidents and workers were observed. Males accounted for about 95% of fatalities; an excess of cases was shown in both young and elderly workers. Death was the consequence of injuries involving most frequently the head, thorax and spinal cord. An excess of fatalities was observed in agriculture and, at a lower level, in manufacturing industries; small enterprises were involved in approximately 25% of fatalities occurring in the manufacturing industries and services. Employers were the victims of fatal accidents in 50% of cases in agriculture and in 70% of cases in craft industries. Construction, agriculture and transport accounted for about 50% of all fatalities. About 50% of fatal occupational accidents were related to vehicle use: the victim was the driver in the majority of cases, sometimes the victim was run over by a vehicle or fell from a vehicle. The results agree with some previous observations (e.g.: sex and age distribution; construction, agriculture and transport as working activities at high accident risk); but some original observations have emerged, in particular about the frequency of employers as victims and the role of vehicles in the genesis of fatal occupational accidents. If further studies confirm these latter observations, important developments could follow in preventive action design and implementation.

  9. Markov switching multinomial logit model: An application to accident-injury severities.

    PubMed

    Malyshkina, Nataliya V; Mannering, Fred L

    2009-07-01

    In this study, two-state Markov switching multinomial logit models are proposed for statistical modeling of accident-injury severities. These models assume Markov switching over time between two unobserved states of roadway safety as a means of accounting for potential unobserved heterogeneity. The states are distinct in the sense that in different states accident-severity outcomes are generated by separate multinomial logit processes. To demonstrate the applicability of the approach, two-state Markov switching multinomial logit models are estimated for severity outcomes of accidents occurring on Indiana roads over a four-year time period. Bayesian inference methods and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations are used for model estimation. The estimated Markov switching models result in a superior statistical fit relative to the standard (single-state) multinomial logit models for a number of roadway classes and accident types. It is found that the more frequent state of roadway safety is correlated with better weather conditions and that the less frequent state is correlated with adverse weather conditions.

  10. Accident models for two-lane rural roads : segments and intersections

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1998-10-01

    This report is a direct step for the implementation of the Accident Analysis Module in the Interactive Highway Safety Design Model (IHSDM). The Accident Analysis Module is expected to estimate the safety of two-lane rural highway characteristics for ...

  11. RMP Guidance for Warehouses - Table of Contents

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This Risk Management Program (40 CFR Part 68) Guidance is organized into chapters, each covering a topic such as applicability of the rule, requirements for the five-year accident history and offsite consequence analysis, and emergency response.

  12. Evaluation of the Consequences of a Cistern Truck Accident While Transporting Dangerous Substances through a Tunnel.

    PubMed

    Malecha, Ziemowit M; Poliski, Jarosaw; Chorowski, Maciej

    2017-12-01

    The transportation of dangerous substances by truck carriers harbors important safety issues in both road and mine tunnels. Even though traffic conditions in road and mine tunnels are different, the potential geometric and hydrodynamic similarities can lead to similar effects from the uncontrolled leakage of the dangerous material. This work was motivated by the design study of the LAGUNA-LBNO (Large Apparatus studying Grand Unification and Neutrino Astrophysics and Long Baseline Neutrino Oscillations) project. The considered neutrino detector requires a huge amount of liquid argon, which must be transported down the tunnel. The present work focuses on the estimation of the most credible incident and the resulting consequences in the case of a truck accident in the tunnel. The approach and tools used in the present work are generic and can be adapted to other similar situations. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  13. A primer on criticality safety

    DOE PAGES

    Costa, David A.; Cournoyer, Michael E.; Merhege, James F.; ...

    2017-05-01

    Criticality is the state of a nuclear chain reacting medium when the chain reaction is just self-sustaining (or critical). Criticality is dependent on nine interrelated parameters. Moreover, we design criticality safety controls in order to constrain these parameters to minimize fissions and maximize neutron leakage and absorption in other materials, which makes criticality more difficult or impossible to achieve. We present the consequences of criticality accidents are discussed, the nine interrelated parameters that combine to affect criticality are described, and criticality safety controls used to minimize the likelihood of a criticality accident are presented.

  14. Emergency care centers--an efficient method for mitigation of consequences after a dirty bomb attack.

    PubMed

    Miska, Horst

    2012-08-01

    For emergency preparedness and response with respect to nuclear power plant accidents, the concept of Emergency Care Centers has been developed in Germany. This setup aims at monitoring contamination, to decontaminate if needed, assess the dose, and perform an initial medical evaluation of people who might have been affected by the accident. The concept has been tested in many exercises. In response to a terrorist attack involving a dirty bomb, this concept may prove useful for attending contaminated people who are not severely injured.

  15. [Radiological estimation of the protective measures used in agricultural complex of Belarus Republic in 2000-2005 (20 years after the accident on the Chernobyl NPP)].

    PubMed

    Podoliak, A G; Bogdevich, I M; Ageets, V Iu; Timofeev, S F

    2007-01-01

    The radiological estimation of the basic agrochemistry measures spent for the agriculture of the Republic of Belarus in 2000-2005 is given. Laws of behavior radionuclides 137Cs and 90Sr in agrosystems are considered depending on used protective a measures (countermeasures) and the primary goals on liquidation of consequences in sphere of agrarian and industrial complex which are necessary for solving during the remote period after accident ChNNP (in 2006-2010) are studied.

  16. Pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic modeling of psychomotor impairment induced by oral clonazepam in healthy volunteers.

    PubMed

    dos Santos, Fábio Monteiro; Gonçalves, José Carlos Saraiva; Caminha, Ricardo; da Silveira, Gabriel Estolano; Neves, Claúdia Silvana de Miranda; Gram, Karla Regina da Silva; Ferreira, Carla Teixeira; Jacqmin, Philippe; Noël, François

    2009-10-01

    This study was undertaken to model the relationship between clonazepam plasma concentrations and a central nervous system adverse effect (impairment of the psychomotor performance) following the oral administration of immediate-release tablets of clonazepam in healthy volunteers. Such a (P)pharmacokinetic/(P)pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) study is important to interpret properly the consequences of determined levels of plasma concentrations of psychoactive therapeutic drugs reported to be involved in road-traffic accidents. Twenty-three male subjects received a single oral dose of 4 mg clonazepam. Plasma concentration, determined by on-line solid phase extraction coupled with high-performance liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry, and psychomotor performance, quantified through the Digit Symbol Substitution Test, were monitored for 72 hours. A 2-compartment open model with first order absorption and lag-time better fitted the plasma clonazepam concentrations. Clonazepam decreased the psychomotor performance by 72 +/- 3.7% (observed maximum effect), 1.5 to 4 hours (25th-75th percentile) after drug administration. A simultaneous population PK/PD model based on a sigmoid Emax model with time-dependent tolerance described well the time course of effect. Such acute tolerance could minimize the risk of accident as a result of impairment of motor skill after a single dose of clonazepam. However, an individual analysis of the data revealed a great interindividual variation in the relationship between clonazepam effect and plasma concentration, indicating that the phenomenon of acute tolerance can be predicted at a population, but not individual, level.

  17. Mobile phone use during driving: Effects on speed and effectiveness of driver compensatory behaviour.

    PubMed

    Choudhary, Pushpa; Velaga, Nagendra R

    2017-09-01

    This study analysed and modelled the effects of conversation and texting (each with two difficulty levels) on driving performance of Indian drivers in terms of their mean speed and accident avoiding abilities; and further explored the relationship between speed reduction strategy of the drivers and their corresponding accident frequency. 100 drivers of three different age groups (young, mid-age and old-age) participated in the simulator study. Two sudden events of Indian context: unexpected crossing of pedestrians and joining of parked vehicles from road side, were simulated for estimating the accident probabilities. Generalized linear mixed models approach was used for developing linear regression models for mean speed and binary logistic regression models for accident probability. The results of the models showed that the drivers significantly compensated the increased workload by reducing their mean speed by 2.62m/s and 5.29m/s in the presence of conversation and texting tasks respectively. The logistic models for accident probabilities showed that the accident probabilities increased by 3 and 4 times respectively when the drivers were conversing or texting on a phone during driving. Further, the relationship between the speed reduction patterns and their corresponding accident frequencies showed that all the drivers compensated differently; but, among all the drivers, only few drivers, who compensated by reducing the speed by 30% or more, were able to fully offset the increased accident risk associated with the phone use. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. A synthetic method for atmospheric diffusion simulation and environmental impact assessment of accidental pollution in the chemical industry in a WEBGIS context.

    PubMed

    Ni, Haochen; Rui, Yikang; Wang, Jiechen; Cheng, Liang

    2014-09-05

    The chemical industry poses a potential security risk to factory personnel and neighboring residents. In order to mitigate prospective damage, a synthetic method must be developed for an emergency response. With the development of environmental numeric simulation models, model integration methods, and modern information technology, many Decision Support Systems (DSSs) have been established. However, existing systems still have limitations, in terms of synthetic simulation and network interoperation. In order to resolve these limitations, the matured simulation model for chemical accidents was integrated into the WEB Geographic Information System (WEBGIS) platform. The complete workflow of the emergency response, including raw data (meteorology information, and accident information) management, numeric simulation of different kinds of accidents, environmental impact assessments, and representation of the simulation results were achieved. This allowed comprehensive and real-time simulation of acute accidents in the chemical industry. The main contribution of this paper is that an organizational mechanism of the model set, based on the accident type and pollutant substance; a scheduling mechanism for the parallel processing of multi-accident-type, multi-accident-substance, and multi-simulation-model; and finally a presentation method for scalar and vector data on the web browser on the integration of a WEB Geographic Information System (WEBGIS) platform. The outcomes demonstrated that this method could provide effective support for deciding emergency responses of acute chemical accidents.

  19. A Synthetic Method for Atmospheric Diffusion Simulation and Environmental Impact Assessment of Accidental Pollution in the Chemical Industry in a WEBGIS Context

    PubMed Central

    Ni, Haochen; Rui, Yikang; Wang, Jiechen; Cheng, Liang

    2014-01-01

    The chemical industry poses a potential security risk to factory personnel and neighboring residents. In order to mitigate prospective damage, a synthetic method must be developed for an emergency response. With the development of environmental numeric simulation models, model integration methods, and modern information technology, many Decision Support Systems (DSSs) have been established. However, existing systems still have limitations, in terms of synthetic simulation and network interoperation. In order to resolve these limitations, the matured simulation model for chemical accidents was integrated into the WEB Geographic Information System (WEBGIS) platform. The complete workflow of the emergency response, including raw data (meteorology information, and accident information) management, numeric simulation of different kinds of accidents, environmental impact assessments, and representation of the simulation results were achieved. This allowed comprehensive and real-time simulation of acute accidents in the chemical industry. The main contribution of this paper is that an organizational mechanism of the model set, based on the accident type and pollutant substance; a scheduling mechanism for the parallel processing of multi-accident-type, multi-accident-substance, and multi-simulation-model; and finally a presentation method for scalar and vector data on the web browser on the integration of a WEB Geographic Information System (WEBGIS) platform. The outcomes demonstrated that this method could provide effective support for deciding emergency responses of acute chemical accidents. PMID:25198686

  20. Analytical measurements of fission products during a severe nuclear accident

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Doizi, D.; Reymond la Ruinaz, S.; Haykal, I.; Manceron, L.; Perrin, A.; Boudon, V.; Vander Auwera, J.; tchana, F. Kwabia; Faye, M.

    2018-01-01

    The Fukushima accident emphasized the fact that ways to monitor in real time the evolution of a nuclear reactor during a severe accident remain to be developed. No fission products were monitored during twelve days; only dose rates were measured, which is not sufficient to carry out an online diagnosis of the event. The first measurements were announced with little reliability for low volatile fission products. In order to improve the safety of nuclear plants and minimize the industrial, ecological and health consequences of a severe accident, it is necessary to develop new reliable measurement systems, operating at the earliest and closest to the emission source of fission products. Through the French program ANR « Projet d'Investissement d'Avenir », the aim of the DECA-PF project (diagnosis of core degradation from fission products measurements) is to monitor in real time the release of the major fission products (krypton, xenon, gaseous forms of iodine and ruthenium) outside the nuclear reactor containment. These products are released at different times during a nuclear accident and at different states of the nuclear core degradation. Thus, monitoring these fission products gives information on the situation inside the containment and helps to apply the Severe Accident Management procedures. Analytical techniques have been proposed and evaluated. The results are discussed here.

  1. The Human Factors of an Early Space Accident: Flight 3-65 of the X-15

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Barshi, Immanuel; Statler, Irving C.; Orr, Jeb S.

    2015-01-01

    The X-15 was a critical research vehicle in the early days of space flight. On November 15, 1967, the X-15-3 suffered an in-flight breakup. This 191st flight of the X-15 and the 65th flight of this third configuration was the only fatal accident of the X-15 program. This paper presents an analysis, from a human factors perspective, of the events that led up to the accident. The analysis is based on the information contained in the report of the Air Force-NASA Accident Investigation Board (AIB) dated January, 1968. The AIBs analysis addressed, primarily, the events that occurred subsequent to the pilots taking direct control of the reaction control system. The analysis described here suggests that all of the events that caused the accident occurred well before the moment when the pilot switched to direct control. Consequently, the analyses and conclusions regarding the causal factors of, and the contributing factors to, the loss of Flight 3-65 presented here differ from those of the AIB based on the same evidence. Although the accident occurred in 1967, the results of the presented analysis are still relevant today. We present our analysis and discuss its implications for the safety of space operations.

  2. The Human Factors of an Early Space Accident: Flight 3-65 of the X-15

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Barshi, Immanuel; Statler, Irving C.; Orr, Jeb S.

    2016-01-01

    The X-15 was a critical research vehicle in the early days of space flight. On November 15, 1967, the X-15-3 suffered an in-flight breakup. This 191st flight of the X-15 and the 65th flight of this third configuration was the only fatal accident of the X-15 program. This paper presents an analysis, from a human factors perspective, of the events that led up to the accident. The analysis is based on the information contained in the report of the Air Force-NASA Accident Investigation Board (AIB) dated January, 1968. The AIBs analysis addressed, primarily, the events that occurred subsequent to the pilot's taking direct control of the reaction control system. The analysis described here suggests that, rather than events following the pilot's switch to direct control, it was the events preceding the switch that led to the accident. Consequently, the analyses and conclusions regarding the causal factors of, and the contributing factors to, the loss of Flight 3-65 presented here differ from those of the AIB based on the same evidence. Although the accident occurred in 1967, the results of the presented analysis are still relevant today. We present our analysis and discuss its implications for the safety of space operations.

  3. Tobit analysis of vehicle accident rates on interstate highways.

    PubMed

    Anastasopoulos, Panagiotis Ch; Tarko, Andrew P; Mannering, Fred L

    2008-03-01

    There has been an abundance of research that has used Poisson models and its variants (negative binomial and zero-inflated models) to improve our understanding of the factors that affect accident frequencies on roadway segments. This study explores the application of an alternate method, tobit regression, by viewing vehicle accident rates directly (instead of frequencies) as a continuous variable that is left-censored at zero. Using data from vehicle accidents on Indiana interstates, the estimation results show that many factors relating to pavement condition, roadway geometrics and traffic characteristics significantly affect vehicle accident rates.

  4. Radioecological indexes of fallout measurements from the Fukushima nuclear accident

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Manolopoulou, Metaxia; Stoulos, Stylianos; Ioannidou, Alexandra; Vagena, Eleni

    2014-05-01

    Fallout from the Fukushima nuclear accident has been monitored for about 1 month in Thessaloniki, Northern Greece. Three different radionuclides, one short-lived, one relatively long-lived and one long- lived fission product were identified in air, grass and milk samples. The 131I, 137Cs and 134Cs activity concentrations in air reached 497, 145 and 126 μBqm-3, respectively on 4 April, 2011. These radionuclides are of particular concern regarding their transfer from the environment to population through the ingestion pathways for the assessment of the Fukushima accident consequences. Radioecological indexes (eco-indexes) of fallout measurements in the air-grass-cow-milk-man pathway for 131I were determined, as they are related to radiological impact of the Fukushima derived radionuclides on the public and environment.

  5. [The prevention in Italian workers' compensation authority protection: back to the future].

    PubMed

    Miccio, A; Ossicini, A

    2010-01-01

    Workers'protection is now more than ever an integrated protection system-as a result also of recent innovative provisions of law-ranging from prevention on the workplace to health and economic benefits, medical treatment, rehabilitation and reintegration in the social and working life of victims of physical damage consequent to a work related accident or professional disease. With a view to contributing to the reduction of accidents, INAIL has implemented a number of important tools to continually monitor employment and accident trends, it provides small and medium size enterprises with training and advice in the field of prevention and funds companies that decide to invest in the improvement of safety. Now more than ever INAIL after the law May 2010, n. 78 is the Italian prevention agency.

  6. An open simulation approach to identify chances and limitations for vulnerable road user (VRU) active safety.

    PubMed

    Seiniger, Patrick; Bartels, Oliver; Pastor, Claus; Wisch, Marcus

    2013-01-01

    It is commonly agreed that active safety will have a significant impact on reducing accident figures for pedestrians and probably also bicyclists. However, chances and limitations for active safety systems have only been derived based on accident data and the current state of the art, based on proprietary simulation models. The objective of this article is to investigate these chances and limitations by developing an open simulation model. This article introduces a simulation model, incorporating accident kinematics, driving dynamics, driver reaction times, pedestrian dynamics, performance parameters of different autonomous emergency braking (AEB) generations, as well as legal and logical limitations. The level of detail for available pedestrian accident data is limited. Relevant variables, especially timing of the pedestrian appearance and the pedestrian's moving speed, are estimated using assumptions. The model in this article uses the fact that a pedestrian and a vehicle in an accident must have been in the same spot at the same time and defines the impact position as a relevant accident parameter, which is usually available from accident data. The calculations done within the model identify the possible timing available for braking by an AEB system as well as the possible speed reduction for different accident scenarios as well as for different system configurations. The simulation model identifies the lateral impact position of the pedestrian as a significant parameter for system performance, and the system layout is designed to brake when the accident becomes unavoidable by the vehicle driver. Scenarios with a pedestrian running from behind an obstruction are the most demanding scenarios and will very likely never be avoidable for all vehicle speeds due to physical limits. Scenarios with an unobstructed person walking will very likely be treatable for a wide speed range for next generation AEB systems.

  7. Alloy Selection for Accident Tolerant Fuel Cladding in Commercial Light Water Reactors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rebak, Raul B.

    2015-12-01

    As a consequence of the March 2011 events at the Fukushima site, the U.S. congress asked the Department of Energy (DOE) to concentrate efforts on the development of nuclear fuels with enhanced accident tolerance. The new fuels had to maintain or improve the performance of current UO2-zirconium alloy rods during normal operation conditions and tolerate the loss of active cooling in the core for a considerably longer time period than the current system. DOE is funding cost-shared research to investigate the behavior of advanced steels both under normal operation conditions in high-temperature water [ e.g., 561 K (288 °C)] and under accident conditions for reaction with superheated steam. Current results show that, under accident conditions, the advanced ferritic steels (1) have orders of magnitude lower reactivity with steam, (2) would generate less hydrogen and heat than the current zirconium alloys, (3) are resistant to stress corrosion cracking under normal operation conditions, and (4) have low general corrosion in water at 561 K (288 °C).

  8. Internality and externality correlates of potential drivers among high school pupils in Holon (Israel).

    PubMed

    Brook, U; Weitzman, A

    1994-01-01

    Car accidents are the leading causes of death and handicap among adolescents and young adults. Thirty-six pupils from the last class in high school (in the age group 17-18 years) have attended lectures with explanations concerning the consequences of car accidents by physicians of rehabilitation centers. They also were taken on a one-day visit to such a center. They have seen and talked with persons who were severely handicapped because of car accidents, and have followed the physical therapists and occupational healing therapists throughout their work day. The pupils completed the Rotter and Montag Internality-Externality Scale questionnaire before and after the meeting and staging with the handicaps, and the results showed an increase of 10.28% in their Internal focus of control. The conclusion is that confrontation of young future drivers with handicaps as a result of car accidents in rehabilitation centers should be a routine and regular habit during the last classes of high school.

  9. Vehicle-pedestrian collisions - Aspects regarding pedestrian kinematics, dynamics and biomechanics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Petrescu, L.; Petrescu, Al

    2017-10-01

    Vehicle-pedestrian collisions result in a substantial number of pedestrian fatalities and injuries worldwide. Concern continues to limit and reduce the tragic consequences suffered by pedestrians involved in road accidents, caused the vehicle-pedestrian accident reconstruction become an important area and distinctly outlined in the reconstruction of road incidents involving vehicle. This paper analyzes the dynamics of vehicle-pedestrian impact influence over pedestrian biomechanics, which is directly connected with the severity of injury after contact with the vehicle profile and with the place where the pedestrian is projected. The main goal of this paper is to highlight some features of reconstruction of road accidents involving pedestrian, looking at the kinematics and dynamics of pedestrian impact for a better understanding of the phenomena that occur. The study on the dynamics and biomechanics of the pedestrian hit by the vehicle is useful in order to understand how the injuries, including the lethal ones, are generated in the collision, what is essential in road accidents reconstruction.

  10. The social accident: a theoretical model and a research agenda for studying the influence of social and cultural characteristics on motor vehicle accidents.

    PubMed

    Factor, Roni; Mahalel, David; Yair, Gad

    2007-09-01

    The paper develops a sociological model to explain collisions between two drivers or more. The "Social Accident" model presented here integrates empirical findings from prior studies and extant sociological theories. Sociological theory posits that social groups have unique cultural characteristics, which include a distinctive world view and ways of operating that influence its members. These cultural characteristics may cause drivers in different groups to interpret a given situation differently; therefore, they will make conflicting decisions that may possibly lead to road accidents. The proposed model may contribute to an understanding of the social mechanism related to interactions and communication among drivers by presenting new directions for understanding accidents and collisions. The paper concludes with suggestions for future research that will employ the model to assess its predictive and practical utility.

  11. Geographic Disparities in Liver Availability: Accidents of Geography, or Consequences of Poor Social Policy?

    PubMed

    Ladin, K; Zhang, G; Hanto, D W

    2017-09-01

    Recently, a redistricting proposal intended to equalize Model for End-stage Liver Disease score at transplant recommended expanding liver sharing to mitigate geographic variation in liver transplantation. Yet, it is unclear whether variation in liver availability is arbitrary and a disparity requiring rectification or reflects differences in access to care. We evaluate the proposal's claim that organ supply is an "accident of geography" by examining the relationship between local organ supply and the uneven landscape of social determinants and policies that contribute to differential death rates across the United States. We show that higher mortality leading to greater availability of organs may in part result from disproportionate risks incurred at the local level. Disparities in public safety laws, health care infrastructure, and public funding may influence the risk of death and subsequent availability of deceased donors. These risk factors are disproportionately prevalent in regions with high organ supply. Policies calling for organ redistribution from high-supply to low-supply regions may exacerbate existing social and health inequalities by redistributing the single benefit (greater organ availability) of greater exposure to environmental and contextual risks (e.g. violent death, healthcare scarcity). Variation in liver availability may not be an "accident of geography" but rather a byproduct of disadvantage. © 2017 The American Society of Transplantation and the American Society of Transplant Surgeons.

  12. [The SILENE reactor: a tool adapted for applied study of moderate and large doses].

    PubMed

    Verrey, B; Leo, Y; Fouillaud, P

    2002-07-01

    Designed in 1974 to study the phenomenology and consequences of a critical accident, the SILENE experimental reactor, an intense source of mixed neutron and gamma radiation, is also suited to radiobiological studies.

  13. Usefulness of high resolution coastal models for operational oil spill forecast: the Full City accident

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Broström, G.; Carrasco, A.; Hole, L. R.; Dick, S.; Janssen, F.; Mattsson, J.; Berger, S.

    2011-06-01

    Oil spill modeling is considered to be an important decision support system (DeSS) useful for remedial action in case of accidents, as well as for designing the environmental monitoring system that is frequently set up after major accidents. Many accidents take place in coastal areas implying that low resolution basin scale ocean models is of limited use for predicting the trajectories of an oil spill. In this study, we target the oil spill in connection with the Full City accident on the Norwegian south coast and compare three different oil spill models for the area. The result of the analysis is that all models do a satisfactory job. The "standard" operational model for the area is shown to have severe flaws but including an analysis based on a higher resolution model (1.5 km resolution) for the area the model system show results that compare well with observations. The study also shows that an ensemble using three different models is useful when predicting/analyzing oil spill in coastal areas.

  14. Risk factors for accident death in the U.S. Army, 2004-2009.

    PubMed

    Lewandowski-Romps, Lisa; Peterson, Christopher; Berglund, Patricia A; Collins, Stacey; Cox, Kenneth; Hauret, Keith; Jones, Bruce; Kessler, Ronald C; Mitchell, Colter; Park, Nansook; Schoenbaum, Michael; Stein, Murray B; Ursano, Robert J; Heeringa, Steven G

    2014-12-01

    Accidents are one of the leading causes of death among U.S. active-duty Army soldiers. Evidence-based approaches to injury prevention could be strengthened by adding person-level characteristics (e.g., demographics) to risk models tested on diverse soldier samples studied over time. To identify person-level risk indicators of accident deaths in Regular Army soldiers during a time frame of intense military operations, and to discriminate risk of not-line-of-duty from line-of-duty accident deaths. Administrative data acquired from multiple Army/Department of Defense sources for active duty Army soldiers during 2004-2009 were analyzed in 2013. Logistic regression modeling was used to identify person-level sociodemographic, service-related, occupational, and mental health predictors of accident deaths. Delayed rank progression or demotion and being male, unmarried, in a combat arms specialty, and of low rank/service length increased odds of accident death for enlisted soldiers. Unique to officers was high risk associated with aviation specialties. Accident death risk decreased over time for currently deployed, enlisted soldiers and increased for those never deployed. Mental health diagnosis was associated with risk only for previous and never-deployed, enlisted soldiers. Models did not discriminate not-line-of-duty from line-of-duty accident deaths. Adding more refined person-level and situational risk indicators to current models could enhance understanding of accident death risk specific to soldier rank and deployment status. Stable predictors could help identify high risk of accident deaths in future cohorts of Regular Army soldiers. Copyright © 2014 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. All rights reserved.

  15. Risk Factors for Accident Death in the U.S. Army, 2004–2009

    PubMed Central

    Lewandowski-Romps, Lisa; Peterson, Christopher; Berglund, Patricia A.; Collins, Stacey; Cox, Kenneth; Hauret, Keith; Jones, Bruce; Kessler, Ronald C.; Mitchell, Colter; Park, Nansook; Schoenbaum, Michael; Stein, Murray B.; Ursano, Robert J.; Heeringa, Steven G.

    2014-01-01

    Background Accidents are one of the leading causes of death among U.S. active duty Army soldiers. Evidence-based approaches to injury prevention could be strengthened by adding person-level characteristics (e.g., demographics) to risk models tested on diverse soldier samples studied over time. Purpose To identify person-level risk indicators of accident deaths in Regular Army soldiers during a time frame of intense military operations, and to discriminate risk of not-line-of-duty (NLOD) from line-of-duty (LOD) accident deaths. Methods Administrative data acquired from multiple Army/Department of Defense sources for active duty Army soldiers during 2004–2009 were analyzed in 2013. Logistic regression modeling was used to identify person-level sociodemographic, service-related, occupational, and mental health predictors of accident deaths. Results Delayed rank progression or demotion and being male, unmarried, in a combat arms specialty, and of low rank/service length increased odds of accident death for enlisted soldiers. Unique to officers was high risk associated with aviation specialties. Accident death risk decreased over time for currently deployed, enlisted soldiers while increasing for those never deployed. Mental health diagnosis was associated with risk only for previous and never-deployed, enlisted soldiers. Models did not discriminate NLOD from LOD accident deaths. Conclusions Adding more refined person-level and situational risk indicators to current models could enhance understanding of accident death risk specific to soldier rank and deployment status. Stable predictors could help identify high risk of accident deaths in future cohorts of Regular Army soldiers. PMID:25441238

  16. Traffic dynamics around weaving section influenced by accident: Cellular automata approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kong, Lin-Peng; Li, Xin-Gang; Lam, William H. K.

    2015-07-01

    The weaving section, as a typical bottleneck, is one source of vehicle conflicts and an accident-prone area. Traffic accident will block lanes and the road capacity will be reduced. Several models have been established to study the dynamics around traffic bottlenecks. However, little attention has been paid to study the complex traffic dynamics influenced by the combined effects of bottleneck and accident. This paper presents a cellular automaton model to characterize accident-induced traffic behavior around the weaving section. Some effective control measures are proposed and verified for traffic management under accident condition. The total flux as a function of inflow rates, the phase diagrams, the spatial-temporal diagrams, and the density and velocity profiles are presented to analyze the impact of accident. It was shown that the proposed control measures for weaving traffic can improve the capacity of weaving section under both normal and accident conditions; the accidents occurring on median lane in the weaving section are more inclined to cause traffic jam and reduce road capacity; the capacity of weaving section will be greatly reduced when the accident happens downstream the weaving section.

  17. Dementia and Traffic Accidents: A Danish Register-Based Cohort Study.

    PubMed

    Petersen, Jindong Ding; Siersma, Volkert; Nielsen, Connie Thurøe; Vass, Mikkel; Waldorff, Frans Boch

    2016-09-27

    As a consequence of a rapid growth of an ageing population, more people with dementia are expected on the roads. Little is known about whether these people are at increased risk of road traffic-related accidents. Our study aims to investigate the risk of road traffic-related accidents for people aged 65 years or older with a diagnosis of dementia in Denmark. We will conduct a nationwide population-based cohort study consisting of Danish people aged 65 or older living in Denmark as of January 1, 2008. The cohort is followed for 7 years (2008-2014). Individual's personal data are available in Danish registers and can be linked using a unique personal identification number. A person is identified with dementia if the person meets at least one of the following criteria: (1) a diagnosis of the disease in the Danish National Patient Register or in the Danish Psychiatric Central Research Register, and/or (2) at least one dementia diagnosis-related drug prescription registration in the Danish National Prescription Registry. Police-, hospital-, and emergency room-reported road traffic-related accidents occurred within the study follow-up are defined as the study outcome. Cox proportional hazard regression models are used for the main analysis. Our study protocol has 3 phases including data collection, data analysis, and reporting. The first phase of register-based data collection of 853,228 individual's personal information was completed in August, 2016. The next phase is data analysis, which is expected to be finished before December 2016, and thereafter writing publications based on the findings. The study started in January 2016 and will end in December 2018. This study covers the entire elderly population of Denmark, and thereby will avoid selection bias due to nonparticipation and loss to follow-up. Furthermore, this ensures that the study results are reliable and generalizable. However, underreporting of traffic-related accidents may occur, which will limit estimation of absolute risks.

  18. Dementia and Traffic Accidents: A Danish Register-Based Cohort Study

    PubMed Central

    Siersma, Volkert; Nielsen, Connie Thurøe; Vass, Mikkel; Waldorff, Frans Boch

    2016-01-01

    Background As a consequence of a rapid growth of an ageing population, more people with dementia are expected on the roads. Little is known about whether these people are at increased risk of road traffic-related accidents. Objective Our study aims to investigate the risk of road traffic-related accidents for people aged 65 years or older with a diagnosis of dementia in Denmark. Methods We will conduct a nationwide population-based cohort study consisting of Danish people aged 65 or older living in Denmark as of January 1, 2008. The cohort is followed for 7 years (2008-2014). Individual’s personal data are available in Danish registers and can be linked using a unique personal identification number. A person is identified with dementia if the person meets at least one of the following criteria: (1) a diagnosis of the disease in the Danish National Patient Register or in the Danish Psychiatric Central Research Register, and/or (2) at least one dementia diagnosis-related drug prescription registration in the Danish National Prescription Registry. Police-, hospital-, and emergency room-reported road traffic-related accidents occurred within the study follow-up are defined as the study outcome. Cox proportional hazard regression models are used for the main analysis. Results Our study protocol has 3 phases including data collection, data analysis, and reporting. The first phase of register-based data collection of 853,228 individual’s personal information was completed in August, 2016. The next phase is data analysis, which is expected to be finished before December 2016, and thereafter writing publications based on the findings. The study started in January 2016 and will end in December 2018. Discussion This study covers the entire elderly population of Denmark, and thereby will avoid selection bias due to nonparticipation and loss to follow-up. Furthermore, this ensures that the study results are reliable and generalizable. However, underreporting of traffic-related accidents may occur, which will limit estimation of absolute risks. PMID:27678553

  19. [Radio-ecological and hygienic assessment of consequences of forest fires in the areas polluted during the Chernobyl accident].

    PubMed

    Kashparov, V A; Lundin, S M; Kadygrib, A M; Protsak, V P; Levchuk, S E; Ioshchenko, V I; Kashpur, V A; Talerko, N N

    2001-01-01

    Retransfer of radionuclides on the condensation trails of Chernobyl radioactive fallouts during forest fires has been experimentally evaluated and their mathematical transfer model verified. It has been shown that radionuclide retransfer will make no great impact on additional pollution of an area even under the most unfavourable conditions. The contribution of convective and non-convective components of transfer to the formation of a radioactive aerosol concentration field has been assessed. Time course of changes in the concentration of radioactive aerosol and its dispersive composition are shown in different phases of fire and at different distance from its source.

  20. Occupational accidents in artisanal mining in Katanga, D.R.C.

    PubMed

    Elenge, Myriam; Leveque, Alain; De Brouwer, Christophe

    2013-04-01

    This study focuses on accidents in artisanal mining, to support policies improving miners' employability. Based on a questionnaire administered in November 2009 to a sample of 180 miners from the artisanal mining of LUPOTO, in the Province of Katanga, we explored significant trends between the accidents and their consequences and behavioral or sociological variables. During the 12 months preceding the study, 392 accidents occurred, affecting 72.2% of miners. Tools handling represents 51.5%, of the accidents' causes, followed by handling heavy loads (32.9%). Factors such as age, seniority or apprenticeship did not generate significant differences. Contusions were the most common injuries (50.2%), followed by wounds (44.4%). These injuries were located in upper limbs (50.5%) and in lower limbs (29.3%). 80.5% of miners were cared for by their colleagues and 50% of them could not work for more than 3 days. Physical sequelae were reported by 19% of the injured miners. Many surveys related to accidents in the area of artisanal mining report such high frequency. The unsuitability of tools to jobs to be done is usually raised as one of the major causes of accidents. The lack of differentiation of the tasks carried out in relation to age is another factor explaining the lack of protective effect of seniority as it minimizes the contribution of experience in the worker's safety. The apprenticeship reported is inadequate; it is rather a learning by doing than anything else. That is why it lacks protective effect. Low income combined with precariousness of artisanal mining are likely to explain the low level of work stoppages. Tools improvement associated with adequate training seem to be the basis of accident prevention. Availability of suitable medical care should improve artisanal miners' recovery after accidents.

  1. Lessons from Fukushima for Improving the Safety of Nuclear Reactors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lyman, Edwin

    2012-02-01

    The March 2011 accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant has revealed serious vulnerabilities in the design, operation and regulation of nuclear power plants. While some aspects of the accident were plant- and site-specific, others have implications that are broadly applicable to the current generation of nuclear plants in operation around the world. Although many of the details of the accident progression and public health consequences are still unclear, there are a number of lessons that can already be drawn. The accident demonstrated the need at nuclear plants for robust, highly reliable backup power sources capable of functioning for many days in the event of a complete loss of primary off-site and on-site electrical power. It highlighted the importance of detailed planning for severe accident management that realistically evaluates the capabilities of personnel to carry out mitigation operations under extremely hazardous conditions. It showed how emergency plans rooted in the assumption that only one reactor at a multi-unit site would be likely to experience a crisis fail miserably in the event of an accident affecting multiple reactor units simultaneously. It revealed that alternate water injection following a severe accident could be needed for weeks or months, generating large volumes of contaminated water that must be contained. And it reinforced the grim lesson of Chernobyl: that a nuclear reactor accident could lead to widespread radioactive contamination with profound implications for public health, the economy and the environment. While many nations have re-examined their policies regarding nuclear power safety in the months following the accident, it remains to be seen to what extent the world will take the lessons of Fukushima seriously and make meaningful changes in time to avert another, and potentially even worse, nuclear catastrophe.

  2. Ten years after Chernobyl

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Becker, K.

    1996-12-31

    As was amply demonstrated during the EU/IAEA/WHO Summing-up-Conference in Vienna, Austria, April 8-12, 1996, the radiological consequences of the Chernobyl accident were, fortunately, not as serious as frequently presented in the media: 28 people died from acute radiation syndrome in 1986, 14 more of possibly radiation-related causes since. Of the <1000 thyroid cancers in children, 90 to 95% are curable. There have so far been no other demonstrable increases in the former Soviet Union, as well as in Western Europe, of leukemias, solid cancers, or genetic defects, nor are any to be expected in the future. Even among the {open_quotes}liquidators{close_quotes}more » with doses {approximately}100 mSv, of the {approximately}150 additional expected leukemias during the 10 yr after the accident, none have been observed. The economical, social, and political consequences, however, both in the former Soviet Union and in Western Europe, have been very substantial. Whole countries developed an hysterical `radiation sickness.` As A. Merkel, the German Minister of Environment and Reactor Safety, who chaired the conference, pointed out, `the radiation sensitivity of societies far exceeds that of individuals.` It is obvious that important groups in Ukraine, Belaurus, and Russia try to blame a large fraction of all economic, social, and health problems during the last decade, which are substantial ({approx} 6 yr less life expectancy, twice the homicides and traffic deaths, increased alcoholism, and so forth), on radiation of the Chernobyl accident in an effort to attract more support. Western scientists refute such claims but admit large non-radiation-related problems caused by the accident.« less

  3. Risk analysis of emergent water pollution accidents based on a Bayesian Network.

    PubMed

    Tang, Caihong; Yi, Yujun; Yang, Zhifeng; Sun, Jie

    2016-01-01

    To guarantee the security of water quality in water transfer channels, especially in open channels, analysis of potential emergent pollution sources in the water transfer process is critical. It is also indispensable for forewarnings and protection from emergent pollution accidents. Bridges above open channels with large amounts of truck traffic are the main locations where emergent accidents could occur. A Bayesian Network model, which consists of six root nodes and three middle layer nodes, was developed in this paper, and was employed to identify the possibility of potential pollution risk. Dianbei Bridge is reviewed as a typical bridge on an open channel of the Middle Route of the South to North Water Transfer Project where emergent traffic accidents could occur. Risk of water pollutions caused by leakage of pollutants into water is focused in this study. The risk for potential traffic accidents at the Dianbei Bridge implies a risk for water pollution in the canal. Based on survey data, statistical analysis, and domain specialist knowledge, a Bayesian Network model was established. The human factor of emergent accidents has been considered in this model. Additionally, this model has been employed to describe the probability of accidents and the risk level. The sensitive reasons for pollution accidents have been deduced. The case has also been simulated that sensitive factors are in a state of most likely to lead to accidents. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. A review of the Fukushima nuclear reactor accident: radiation effects on the thyroid and strategies for prevention.

    PubMed

    Nagataki, Shigenobu; Takamura, Noboru

    2014-10-01

    This is a summary of the nuclear accident at the Tokyo Electric Power Company Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Stations (FDNPS) on 11 March 2011 to be used as a review of the radiation effects to the thyroid and strategies of prevention. The amount of radioiodine released to the environment following the Fukushima accident was 120 Peta Becquerel, which is approximately one-tenth of that in the Chernobyl accident. Residents near the FDNPS were evacuated within a few days and foodstuffs were controlled within 1 or 2 weeks. Therefore, thyroid radiation doses were less than 100 mSv (intervention levels for stable iodine administration) in the majority of children, including less than 1 year olds, living in the evacuation areas. Because the incidence of childhood thyroid cancer increased in those residing near the site following the Chernobyl accident, thyroid screening of all children (0-18 years old) in the Fukushima Prefecture was started. To date, screening of more than 280 000 children has resulted in the diagnosis of thyroid cancer in 90 children (approximate incidence, 313 per million). Thus, although the dose of radiation was much lower, the incidence of thyroid cancer appears to be much higher than that following the Chernobyl accident. A comparison of the thyroidal consequences following the Fukushima and Chernobyl nuclear reactor accidents is discussed. We also summarize the recent increased incidence in thyroid cancer in the Fukushima area following the accident in relation to increased thyroid ultrasound screening and the use of advanced ultrasound techniques. http://links.lww.com/COE/A8.

  5. Radiological protection issues arising during and after the Fukushima nuclear reactor accident.

    PubMed

    González, Abel J; Akashi, Makoto; Boice, John D; Chino, Masamichi; Homma, Toshimitsu; Ishigure, Nobuhito; Kai, Michiaki; Kusumi, Shizuyo; Lee, Jai-Ki; Menzel, Hans-Georg; Niwa, Ohtsura; Sakai, Kazuo; Weiss, Wolfgang; Yamashita, Shunichi; Yonekura, Yoshiharu

    2013-09-01

    Following the Fukushima accident, the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) convened a task group to compile lessons learned from the nuclear reactor accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant in Japan, with respect to the ICRP system of radiological protection. In this memorandum the members of the task group express their personal views on issues arising during and after the accident, without explicit endorsement of or approval by the ICRP. While the affected people were largely protected against radiation exposure and no one incurred a lethal dose of radiation (or a dose sufficiently large to cause radiation sickness), many radiological protection questions were raised. The following issues were identified: inferring radiation risks (and the misunderstanding of nominal risk coefficients); attributing radiation effects from low dose exposures; quantifying radiation exposure; assessing the importance of internal exposures; managing emergency crises; protecting rescuers and volunteers; responding with medical aid; justifying necessary but disruptive protective actions; transiting from an emergency to an existing situation; rehabilitating evacuated areas; restricting individual doses of members of the public; caring for infants and children; categorising public exposures due to an accident; considering pregnant women and their foetuses and embryos; monitoring public protection; dealing with 'contamination' of territories, rubble and residues and consumer products; recognising the importance of psychological consequences; and fostering the sharing of information. Relevant ICRP Recommendations were scrutinised, lessons were collected and suggestions were compiled. It was concluded that the radiological protection community has an ethical duty to learn from the lessons of Fukushima and resolve any identified challenges. Before another large accident occurs, it should be ensured that inter alia: radiation risk coefficients of potential health effects are properly interpreted; the limitations of epidemiological studies for attributing radiation effects following low exposures are understood; any confusion on protection quantities and units is resolved; the potential hazard from the intake of radionuclides into the body is elucidated; rescuers and volunteers are protected with an ad hoc system; clear recommendations on crisis management and medical care and on recovery and rehabilitation are available; recommendations on public protection levels (including infant, children and pregnant women and their expected offspring) and associated issues are consistent and understandable; updated recommendations on public monitoring policy are available; acceptable (or tolerable) 'contamination' levels are clearly stated and defined; strategies for mitigating the serious psychological consequences arising from radiological accidents are sought; and, last but not least, failures in fostering information sharing on radiological protection policy after an accident need to be addressed with recommendations to minimise such lapses in communication.

  6. Usefulness of high resolution coastal models for operational oil spill forecast: the "Full City" accident

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Broström, G.; Carrasco, A.; Hole, L. R.; Dick, S.; Janssen, F.; Mattsson, J.; Berger, S.

    2011-11-01

    Oil spill modeling is considered to be an important part of a decision support system (DeSS) for oil spill combatment and is useful for remedial action in case of accidents, as well as for designing the environmental monitoring system that is frequently set up after major accidents. Many accidents take place in coastal areas, implying that low resolution basin scale ocean models are of limited use for predicting the trajectories of an oil spill. In this study, we target the oil spill in connection with the "Full City" accident on the Norwegian south coast and compare operational simulations from three different oil spill models for the area. The result of the analysis is that all models do a satisfactory job. The "standard" operational model for the area is shown to have severe flaws, but by applying ocean forcing data of higher resolution (1.5 km resolution), the model system shows results that compare well with observations. The study also shows that an ensemble of results from the three different models is useful when predicting/analyzing oil spill in coastal areas.

  7. [The peculiar features of conducting comprehensive expertises of the injuries inflicted inside the passenger car compartment].

    PubMed

    Fetisov, V A; Gusarov, A A; Smirenin, S A

    2016-01-01

    The present article deals with the problem of forensic medical diagnostics of the injuries inflicted inside the passenger car compartment during motor vehicle accidents. The authors place special emphasis on the fact of a significant increase in the number of road traffic accidents (RTA) with such consequences throughout the world. The modern automobile industry pays much attention to the enhancement of the car safety features by significantly improving the design of passenger compartments. It accounts for a change in the traditional character of the injuries to both the driver and the passengers resulting from motor vehicle accidents. This, in turn, creates difficulties for the forensic medical experts as regards personality identification of the subjects who happened to be inside the car at the moment of the collision especially in the case of unascertainable circumstances of the accident and/or the involvement of several victims. The authors describe peculiarities of the injuries inflicted inside the passenger car compartment during road traffic accidents including such that result from bringing the driver and the passengers closer to the construction elements of the car (stage I), their direct contact with these elements (stage II), and subsequent displacement (stage III).

  8. Emergency Responses and Health Consequences after the Fukushima Accident; Evacuation and Relocation.

    PubMed

    Hasegawa, A; Ohira, T; Maeda, M; Yasumura, S; Tanigawa, K

    2016-04-01

    The Fukushima accident was a compounding disaster following the strong earthquake and huge tsunami. The direct health effects of radiation were relatively well controlled considering the severity of the accident, not only among emergency workers but also residents. Other serious health issues include deaths during evacuation, collapse of the radiation emergency medical system, increased mortality among displaced elderly people and public healthcare issues in Fukushima residents. The Fukushima mental health and lifestyle survey disclosed that the Fukushima accident caused severe psychological distress in the residents from evacuation zones. In addition to psychiatric and mental health problems, there are lifestyle-related problems such as an increase proportion of those overweight, an increased prevalence of hypertension, diabetes mellitus and dyslipidaemia and changes in health-related behaviours among evacuees; all of which may lead to an increased cardiovascular disease risk in the future. The effects of a major nuclear accident on societies are diverse and enduring. The countermeasures should include disaster management, long-term general public health services, mental and psychological care, behavioural and societal support, in addition to efforts to mitigate the health effects attributable to radiation. Copyright © 2016 The Royal College of Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Computational modeling of driver speed control with its applications in developing intelligent transportation system to prevent speeding-related accidents.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2013-08-01

    Speeding is the leading contributing factor in fatal accidents in NY state, according to NY State Department of Motor : Vehicle Accidents Statistical Summary (2009). Understanding and modeling speeding and speed control is one of major : challenges i...

  10. Accident diagnosis system based on real-time decision tree expert system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nicolau, Andressa dos S.; Augusto, João P. da S. C.; Schirru, Roberto

    2017-06-01

    Safety is one of the most studied topics when referring to power stations. For that reason, sensors and alarms develop an important role in environmental and human protection. When abnormal event happens, it triggers a chain of alarms that must be, somehow, checked by the control room operators. In this case, diagnosis support system can help operators to accurately identify the possible root-cause of the problem in short time. In this article, we present a computational model of a generic diagnose support system based on artificial intelligence, that was applied on the dataset of two real power stations: Angra1 Nuclear Power Plant and Santo Antônio Hydroelectric Plant. The proposed system processes all the information logged in the sequence of events before a shutdown signal using the expert's knowledge inputted into an expert system indicating the chain of events, from the shutdown signal to its root-cause. The results of both applications showed that the support system is a potential tool to help the control room operators identify abnormal events, as accidents and consequently increase the safety.

  11. Diagnostics of Loss of Coolant Accidents Using SVC and GMDH Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Sung Han; No, Young Gyu; Na, Man Gyun; Ahn, Kwang-Il; Park, Soo-Yong

    2011-02-01

    As a means of effectively managing severe accidents at nuclear power plants, it is important to identify and diagnose accident initiating events within a short time interval after the accidents by observing the major measured signals. The main objective of this study was to diagnose loss of coolant accidents (LOCAs) using artificial intelligence techniques, such as SVC (support vector classification) and GMDH (group method of data handling). In this study, the methodologies of SVC and GMDH models were utilized to discover the break location and estimate the break size of the LOCA, respectively. The 300 accident simulation data (based on MAAP4) were used to develop the SVC and GMDH models, and the 33 test data sets were used to independently confirm whether or not the SVC and GMDH models work well. The measured signals from the reactor coolant system, steam generators, and containment at a nuclear power plant were used as inputs to the models, and the 60 sec time-integrated values of the input signals were used as inputs into the SVC and GMDH models. The simulation results confirmed that the proposed SVC model can identify the break location and the proposed GMDH models can estimate the break size accurately. In addition, even if the measurement errors exist and safety systems actuate, the proposed SVC and GMDH models can discover the break locations without a misclassification and accurately estimate the break size.

  12. Inverse modelling for real-time estimation of radiological consequences in the early stage of an accidental radioactivity release.

    PubMed

    Pecha, Petr; Šmídl, Václav

    2016-11-01

    A stepwise sequential assimilation algorithm is proposed based on an optimisation approach for recursive parameter estimation and tracking of radioactive plume propagation in the early stage of a radiation accident. Predictions of the radiological situation in each time step of the plume propagation are driven by an existing short-term meteorological forecast and the assimilation procedure manipulates the model parameters to match the observations incoming concurrently from the terrain. Mathematically, the task is a typical ill-posed inverse problem of estimating the parameters of the release. The proposed method is designated as a stepwise re-estimation of the source term release dynamics and an improvement of several input model parameters. It results in a more precise determination of the adversely affected areas in the terrain. The nonlinear least-squares regression methodology is applied for estimation of the unknowns. The fast and adequately accurate segmented Gaussian plume model (SGPM) is used in the first stage of direct (forward) modelling. The subsequent inverse procedure infers (re-estimates) the values of important model parameters from the actual observations. Accuracy and sensitivity of the proposed method for real-time forecasting of the accident propagation is studied. First, a twin experiment generating noiseless simulated "artificial" observations is studied to verify the minimisation algorithm. Second, the impact of the measurement noise on the re-estimated source release rate is examined. In addition, the presented method can be used as a proposal for more advanced statistical techniques using, e.g., importance sampling. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. The relationships between organizational and individual variables to on-the-job driver accidents and accident-free kilometres.

    PubMed

    Caird, J K; Kline, T J

    2004-12-01

    Highway fatalities are the leading cause of fatal work injuries in the US, accounting for approximately 1 in 4 of the 5900 job-related deaths during 2001. The present study focused on the contribution of organizational factors and driver behaviours to on-the-job driving accidents in a large Western Canadian corporation. A structural equation modelling (SEM) approach was used which allows researchers to test a complex set of relationships within a global theoretical framework. A number of scales were used to assess organizational support, driver errors, and driver behaviours. The sample of professional drivers that participated allowed the recording of on-the-job accidents and accident-free kilometres from their personnel files. The pattern of relationships in the fitted model, after controlling for exposure and social desirability, provides insight into the role of organizational support, planning, environment adaptations, fatigue, speed, errors and moving citations to on-the-job accidents and accident-free kilometres. For example, organizational support affected the capacity to plan. Time to plan work-related driving was found to predict accidents, fatigue and adaptations to the environment. Other interesting model paths, SEM limitations, future research and recommendations are elaborated.

  14. Mechanical properties of tank car steels retired from the fleet

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2008-08-31

    As a consequence of several recent tank car accidents, the structural integrity of railroad tank cars has come under greater scrutiny, especially the older portion of the fleet fabricated prior to steel normalization requirements. The purpose of this...

  15. Causal analysis of passenger train accidents on freight rail corridors.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2013-11-01

    A number of economic, technical and political factors have limited the development of new, dedicated, very-high-speed rail systems in North America. Consequently, most, near-term development of improved or expanded passenger rail service in the U.S. ...

  16. Mechanical properties of tank car steels retired from the fleet

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2009-03-03

    As a consequence of recent accidents involving the release of hazardous materials (hazmat), the structural integrity and crashworthiness of railroad tank cars have come under scrutiny. Particular attention has been given to the older portion of the f...

  17. 40 CFR 68.67 - Process hazard analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ...) CHEMICAL ACCIDENT PREVENTION PROVISIONS Program 3 Prevention Program § 68.67 Process hazard analysis. (a... potential for catastrophic consequences. (3) Engineering and administrative controls applicable to the... engineering and administrative controls; (5) Stationary source siting; (6) Human factors; and (7) A...

  18. 40 CFR 68.67 - Process hazard analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ...) CHEMICAL ACCIDENT PREVENTION PROVISIONS Program 3 Prevention Program § 68.67 Process hazard analysis. (a... potential for catastrophic consequences. (3) Engineering and administrative controls applicable to the... engineering and administrative controls; (5) Stationary source siting; (6) Human factors; and (7) A...

  19. 40 CFR 68.67 - Process hazard analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ...) CHEMICAL ACCIDENT PREVENTION PROVISIONS Program 3 Prevention Program § 68.67 Process hazard analysis. (a... potential for catastrophic consequences. (3) Engineering and administrative controls applicable to the... engineering and administrative controls; (5) Stationary source siting; (6) Human factors; and (7) A...

  20. 10 CFR 30.50 - Reporting requirements.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... prevents immediate protective actions necessary to avoid exposures to radiation or radioactive materials... license condition to prevent releases exceeding regulatory limits, to prevent exposures to radiation and radioactive materials exceeding regulatory limits, or to mitigate the consequences of an accident; (ii) The...

  1. 10 CFR 70.50 - Reporting requirements.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... event that prevents immediate protective actions necessary to avoid exposures to radiation or... licensee condition to prevent releases exceeding regulatory limits, to prevent exposures to radiation and radioactive materials exceeding regulatory limits, or to mitigate the consequences of an accident; (ii) The...

  2. 10 CFR 70.50 - Reporting requirements.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... event that prevents immediate protective actions necessary to avoid exposures to radiation or... licensee condition to prevent releases exceeding regulatory limits, to prevent exposures to radiation and radioactive materials exceeding regulatory limits, or to mitigate the consequences of an accident; (ii) The...

  3. 10 CFR 30.50 - Reporting requirements.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... prevents immediate protective actions necessary to avoid exposures to radiation or radioactive materials... license condition to prevent releases exceeding regulatory limits, to prevent exposures to radiation and radioactive materials exceeding regulatory limits, or to mitigate the consequences of an accident; (ii) The...

  4. 10 CFR 70.50 - Reporting requirements.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... event that prevents immediate protective actions necessary to avoid exposures to radiation or... licensee condition to prevent releases exceeding regulatory limits, to prevent exposures to radiation and radioactive materials exceeding regulatory limits, or to mitigate the consequences of an accident; (ii) The...

  5. 10 CFR 30.50 - Reporting requirements.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... prevents immediate protective actions necessary to avoid exposures to radiation or radioactive materials... license condition to prevent releases exceeding regulatory limits, to prevent exposures to radiation and radioactive materials exceeding regulatory limits, or to mitigate the consequences of an accident; (ii) The...

  6. Farm Safety

    PubMed Central

    Wilson, G. S.

    1966-01-01

    Accident and safety are related terms; the higher the accident rate in any industry, the greater is the need for safety measures designed to prevent accidents. This article discusses the accident and safety problems in agriculture, which includes horticulture and forestry. There is still a tendency among townspeople to think of the countryside as peaceful and tranquil, a place where nothing happens very quickly and far removed from violent death or crippling injury. This pleasant rustic picture has undergone a striking change in the last 30 years owing to considerable agricultural mechanization and the development of chemical pesticides, which have brought new dangers to those who live and work on the land. Although men have readily adapted themselves to new machines and methods, they have not proved as able to recognize new dangers and learn how to guard against them. In consequence, accidents have increased to such an extent that the whole industry has realized the need for positive preventive measures. In this country, it is generally accepted that an employer of labour has a responsibility to provide safe working conditions for those he employs. Farm safety legislation goes a little further and usually requires an employer to provide necessary safeguards, with the added requirement on a worker to make use of them. It is a feature of accident prevention work that it never reaches a stage when it can be regarded as complete. Even when a reduction in accidents has been achieved, the effort must be sustained or the trend will be quickly reversed. Images PMID:5904095

  7. Accident investigation practices in Europe--main responses from a recent study of accidents in industry and transport.

    PubMed

    Roed-Larsen, Sverre; Valvisto, T; Harms-Ringdahl, L; Kirchsteiger, C

    2004-07-26

    Europe has during recent years been shocked by disasters from natural events and technical breakdowns. The consequences have been comprehensive, measured by lost lives, injuries, and material and environmental damage. ESReDA wanted in 2000--by setting up a special expert group on accident investigation--to clarify the state of art of accident investigation practices and to map the use of thoroughly accident investigation in order to learn lessons from past disasters and prevent new ones. The scope was to cover three sectors in the society: transport, production processes and storage of hazardous materials, and energy production. The main method used was a questionnaire, which was sent in 2001 to about 150 organisations. About 50 replies were analysed. The replies showed great variations but also similarities, among others in definition of accident and incident, the objectives of the investigation team, criteria used to start an investigation, the status of the investigation organisation, the flow of information, the composition of the investigation team, and the use of internal or international procedures or rules. Several methods (in total 14 different methods were mentioned) were used for carrying out accident /incident investigations. Most of the respondents were willing to co-operate in one or another way with ESReDA. Although there are important biases in the material, the results from questionnaire are important inputs to the future work of ESReDA Expert group in this field. 3 safety approaches have been identified.

  8. Combined Prediction Model of Death Toll for Road Traffic Accidents Based on Independent and Dependent Variables

    PubMed Central

    Zhong-xiang, Feng; Shi-sheng, Lu; Wei-hua, Zhang; Nan-nan, Zhang

    2014-01-01

    In order to build a combined model which can meet the variation rule of death toll data for road traffic accidents and can reflect the influence of multiple factors on traffic accidents and improve prediction accuracy for accidents, the Verhulst model was built based on the number of death tolls for road traffic accidents in China from 2002 to 2011; and car ownership, population, GDP, highway freight volume, highway passenger transportation volume, and highway mileage were chosen as the factors to build the death toll multivariate linear regression model. Then the two models were combined to be a combined prediction model which has weight coefficient. Shapley value method was applied to calculate the weight coefficient by assessing contributions. Finally, the combined model was used to recalculate the number of death tolls from 2002 to 2011, and the combined model was compared with the Verhulst and multivariate linear regression models. The results showed that the new model could not only characterize the death toll data characteristics but also quantify the degree of influence to the death toll by each influencing factor and had high accuracy as well as strong practicability. PMID:25610454

  9. Combined prediction model of death toll for road traffic accidents based on independent and dependent variables.

    PubMed

    Feng, Zhong-xiang; Lu, Shi-sheng; Zhang, Wei-hua; Zhang, Nan-nan

    2014-01-01

    In order to build a combined model which can meet the variation rule of death toll data for road traffic accidents and can reflect the influence of multiple factors on traffic accidents and improve prediction accuracy for accidents, the Verhulst model was built based on the number of death tolls for road traffic accidents in China from 2002 to 2011; and car ownership, population, GDP, highway freight volume, highway passenger transportation volume, and highway mileage were chosen as the factors to build the death toll multivariate linear regression model. Then the two models were combined to be a combined prediction model which has weight coefficient. Shapley value method was applied to calculate the weight coefficient by assessing contributions. Finally, the combined model was used to recalculate the number of death tolls from 2002 to 2011, and the combined model was compared with the Verhulst and multivariate linear regression models. The results showed that the new model could not only characterize the death toll data characteristics but also quantify the degree of influence to the death toll by each influencing factor and had high accuracy as well as strong practicability.

  10. Societal consequences of Title II of Public Law 92-513: Motor Vehicle Information and Cost Savings Act. Final report, May 1974--Mar 1975

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Northrop, G.M.

    1975-06-01

    Societal consequences of the availability, under Title II, Public Law 92-513, of information on crashworthiness, crash repair cost, routine maintenance and repair cost, and insurance cost are investigated. Surveys of small groups of private passenger car buyers and fleet buyers were conducted, and the results were analyzed. Three simple computer models were prepared: (1) an Accident Model to compare the number of occupants suffering fatal or serious injuries under assumed car-buying behavior with and without the availability of Title II information and changes made by car manufacturers that modify crashworthiness and car weight; (2) a New Car Sales Model tomore » determine the impact of car-buying behavior on 22 societal elements involving consumer expenditures and employment, sales margin, and value added for dealers, car manufacturers, and industrial suppliers; and (3) a Car Operations Model to determine the impact of car-buying behavior on the total gasoline consumption cost, crash repair cost, routine maintenance, repair cost, and insurance cost. Projections of car-buying behavior over a 10-year period (1976-1985) were made and results presented in the form of 10-year average values of the percent difference between results under 'With Title II' and 'Without Title II' information.« less

  11. Automated vehicle for railway track fault detection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bhushan, M.; Sujay, S.; Tushar, B.; Chitra, P.

    2017-11-01

    For the safety reasons, railroad tracks need to be inspected on a regular basis for detecting physical defects or design non compliances. Such track defects and non compliances, if not detected in a certain interval of time, may eventually lead to severe consequences such as train derailments. Inspection must happen twice weekly by a human inspector to maintain safety standards as there are hundreds and thousands of miles of railroad track. But in such type of manual inspection, there are many drawbacks that may result in the poor inspection of the track, due to which accidents may cause in future. So to avoid such errors and severe accidents, this automated system is designed.Such a concept would surely introduce automation in the field of inspection process of railway track and can help to avoid mishaps and severe accidents due to faults in the track.

  12. Nuclear Reactor Accident Fallout Artifacts: Unusual Black Spots on Digital Radiographs.

    PubMed

    Kashimura, Yasuhiro; Chida, Koichi

    2015-12-01

    The Fukushima nuclear power plant accident resulted in the discharge of radioactive particulate material into the atmosphere. Consequently, several hospitals in Japan have observed black spots on x-ray computed radiography (CR) images caused by particulate radioactive fallout. These black spots have no effect on human health. To reduce the influence of black spots on CR images, we need to erase latent images on imaging plates (IPs) immediately before clinical use and read the IPs soon after the x-ray examination. Alternatively, the contaminated felt of a cassette can be cleaned or exchanged, if possible.

  13. Development of water environment information management and water pollution accident response system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, J.; Ruan, H.

    2009-12-01

    In recent years, many water pollution accidents occurred with the rapid economical development. In this study, water environment information management and water pollution accident response system are developed based on geographic information system (GIS) techniques. The system integrated spatial database, attribute database, hydraulic model, and water quality model under a user-friendly interface in a GIS environment. System ran in both Client/Server (C/S) and Browser/Server (B/S) platform which focused on model and inquiry respectively. System provided spatial and attribute data inquiry, water quality evaluation, statics, water pollution accident response case management (opening reservoir etc) and 2D and 3D visualization function, and gave assistant information to make decision on water pollution accident response. Polluted plume in Huaihe River were selected to simulate the transport of pollutes.

  14. Application of the Life Change Unit model for the prevention of accident proneness among small to medium sized industries in Korea.

    PubMed

    Kang, Youngsig; Hahm, Hyojoon; Yang, Sunghwan; Kim, Taegu

    2008-10-01

    Behavior models have provided an accident proneness concept based on life change unit (LCU) factors. This paper describes the development of a Korean Life Change Unit (KLCU) model for workers and managers in fatal accident areas, as well as an evaluation of its application. Results suggest that death of parents is the highest stress-giving factor for employees of small and medium sized industries a rational finding the viewpoint of Korean culture. The next stress-giving factors were shown to be the death of a spouse or loved ones, followed by the death of close family members, the death of close friends, changes of family members' health, unemployment, and jail terms. It turned out that these factors have a serious effect on industrial accidents and work-related diseases. The death of parents and close friends are ranked higher in the KLCU model than that of Western society. Crucial information for industrial accident prevention in real fields will be provided and the provided information will be useful for safety management programs related to accident prevention.

  15. Predictions of structural integrity of steam generator tubes under normal operating, accident, an severe accident conditions

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Majumdar, S.

    1997-02-01

    Available models for predicting failure of flawed and unflawed steam generator tubes under normal operating, accident, and severe accident conditions are reviewed. Tests conducted in the past, though limited, tended to show that the earlier flow-stress model for part-through-wall axial cracks overestimated the damaging influence of deep cracks. This observation was confirmed by further tests at high temperatures, as well as by finite-element analysis. A modified correlation for deep cracks can correct this shortcoming of the model. Recent tests have shown that lateral restraint can significantly increase the failure pressure of tubes with unsymmetrical circumferential cracks. This observation was confirmedmore » by finite-element analysis. The rate-independent flow stress models that are successful at low temperatures cannot predict the rate-sensitive failure behavior of steam generator tubes at high temperatures. Therefore, a creep rupture model for predicting failure was developed and validated by tests under various temperature and pressure loadings that can occur during postulated severe accidents.« less

  16. An investigation on fatality of drivers in vehicle-fixed object accidents on expressways in China: Using multinomial logistic regression model.

    PubMed

    Peng, Yong; Peng, Shuangling; Wang, Xinghua; Tan, Shiyang

    2018-06-01

    This study aims to identify the effects of characteristics of vehicle, roadway, driver, and environment on fatality of drivers in vehicle-fixed object accidents on expressways in Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan district of Hunan province in China by developing multinomial logistic regression models. For this purpose, 121 vehicle-fixed object accidents from 2011-2017 are included in the modeling process. First, descriptive statistical analysis is made to understand the main characteristics of the vehicle-fixed object crashes. Then, 19 explanatory variables are selected, and correlation analysis of each two variables is conducted to choose the variables to be concluded. Finally, five multinomial logistic regression models including different independent variables are compared, and the model with best fitting and prediction capability is chosen as the final model. The results showed that the turning direction in avoiding fixed objects raised the possibility that drivers would die. About 64% of drivers died in the accident were found being ejected out of the car, of which 50% did not use a seatbelt before the fatal accidents. Drivers are likely to die when they encounter bad weather on the expressway. Drivers with less than 10 years of driving experience are more likely to die in these accidents. Fatigue or distracted driving is also a significant factor in fatality of drivers. Findings from this research provide an insight into reducing fatality of drivers in vehicle-fixed object accidents.

  17. The willingness to pay of parties to traffic accidents for loss of productivity and consolation compensation.

    PubMed

    Jou, Rong-Chang; Chen, Tzu-Ying

    2015-12-01

    In this study, willingness to pay (WTP) for loss of productivity and consolation compensation by parties to traffic accidents is investigated using the Tobit model. In addition, WTP is compared to compensation determined by Taiwanese courts. The modelling results showed that variables such as education, average individual monthly income, traffic accident history, past experience of severe traffic accident injuries, the number of working days lost due to a traffic accident, past experience of accepting compensation for traffic accident-caused productivity loss and past experience of accepting consolation compensation caused by traffic accidents have a positive impact on WTP. In addition, average WTP for these two accident costs were obtained. We found that parties to traffic accidents were willing to pay more than 90% of the compensation determined by the court in the scenario of minor and moderate injuries. Parties were willing to pay approximately 80% of the compensation determined by the court for severe injuries, disability and fatality. Therefore, related agencies can use our study findings as the basis for determining the compensation that parties should pay for productivity losses caused by traffic accidents of different types. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. A novel grey-fuzzy-Markov and pattern recognition model for industrial accident forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Edem, Inyeneobong Ekoi; Oke, Sunday Ayoola; Adebiyi, Kazeem Adekunle

    2017-10-01

    Industrial forecasting is a top-echelon research domain, which has over the past several years experienced highly provocative research discussions. The scope of this research domain continues to expand due to the continuous knowledge ignition motivated by scholars in the area. So, more intelligent and intellectual contributions on current research issues in the accident domain will potentially spark more lively academic, value-added discussions that will be of practical significance to members of the safety community. In this communication, a new grey-fuzzy-Markov time series model, developed from nondifferential grey interval analytical framework has been presented for the first time. This instrument forecasts future accident occurrences under time-invariance assumption. The actual contribution made in the article is to recognise accident occurrence patterns and decompose them into grey state principal pattern components. The architectural framework of the developed grey-fuzzy-Markov pattern recognition (GFMAPR) model has four stages: fuzzification, smoothening, defuzzification and whitenisation. The results of application of the developed novel model signify that forecasting could be effectively carried out under uncertain conditions and hence, positions the model as a distinctly superior tool for accident forecasting investigations. The novelty of the work lies in the capability of the model in making highly accurate predictions and forecasts based on the availability of small or incomplete accident data.

  19. 'Fatalism', accident causation and prevention: issues for health promotion from an exploratory study in a Yoruba town, Nigeria.

    PubMed

    Dixey, R A

    1999-04-01

    As countries experience the 'epidemiological transition' with a relative decline in infectious diseases, accident rates tend to increase, particularly road traffic accidents. The health promotion interventions intended to prevent or minimize the consequences of accidents have been developed in predominantly Western, industrialized countries. Although some of these solutions have been applied with success to less developed countries, there are also good reasons why such solutions are ineffective when tried in a different context. Health promotion as developed in the West has a particular ideological bias, being framed within a secular, individualist and rationalist culture. Different cosmologies exist outside this culture, often described as 'fatalist' by Western commentators and as obstructing change. Changing these cosmologies or worldviews may not fit with the ethic of paying due respect to the cultural traditions of the 'target group'. Health promotion is therefore faced with a dilemma. In addition to different worldviews, the different levels of development also mean that solutions formulated in richer countries do not suit poorer countries. This paper uses a small exploratory study in a Yoruba town in Nigeria to examine these points. Interviews with key informants were held in March 1994 in Igbo-Ora and data were extracted from hospital records. Levels of accidents from available records are noted and people's ideas about accident prevention are discussed. Recommendations as to the way forward are then proposed.

  20. The Causal Relationship between DNA Damage Induction in Bovine Lymphocytes and the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Accident

    PubMed Central

    Nakamura, Asako J.; Suzuki, Masatoshi; Redon, Christophe E.; Kuwahara, Yoshikazu; Yamashiro, Hideaki; Abe, Yasuyuki; Takahashi, Shintaro; Fukuda, Tomokazu; Isogai, Emiko; Bonner, William M.; Fukumoto, Manabu

    2017-01-01

    The Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FNPP) accident, the largest nuclear incident since the 1986 Chernobyl disaster, occurred when the plant was hit by a tsunami triggered by the Great East Japan Earthquake on March 11, 2011. The subsequent uncontrolled release of radioactive substances resulted in massive evacuations in a 20-km zone. To better understand the biological consequences of the FNPP accident, we have been measuring DNA damage levels in cattle in the evacuation zone. DNA damage was evaluated by assessing the levels of DNA double-strand breaks in peripheral blood lymphocytes by immunocyto-fluorescence-based quantification of γ-H2AX foci. A greater than two-fold increase in the fraction of damaged lymphocytes was observed in all animal cohorts within the evacuation zone, and the levels of DNA damage decreased slightly over the 700-day sample collection period. While the extent of damage appeared to be independent of the distance from the accident site and the estimated radiation dose from radiocesium, we observed age-dependent accumulation of DNA damage. Thus, this study, which was the first to evaluate the biological impact of the FNPP accident utilizing the γ-H2AX assays, indicated the causal relation between high levels of DNA damage in animals living in the evacuation zone and the FNPP accident. PMID:28240558

  1. The Causal Relationship between DNA Damage Induction in Bovine Lymphocytes and the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Accident.

    PubMed

    Nakamura, Asako J; Suzuki, Masatoshi; Redon, Christophe E; Kuwahara, Yoshikazu; Yamashiro, Hideaki; Abe, Yasuyuki; Takahashi, Shintaro; Fukuda, Tomokazu; Isogai, Emiko; Bonner, William M; Fukumoto, Manabu

    2017-05-01

    The Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FNPP) accident, the largest nuclear incident since the 1986 Chernobyl disaster, occurred when the plant was hit by a tsunami triggered by the Great East Japan Earthquake on March 11, 2011. The subsequent uncontrolled release of radioactive substances resulted in massive evacuations in a 20-km zone. To better understand the biological consequences of the FNPP accident, we have been measuring DNA damage levels in cattle in the evacuation zone. DNA damage was evaluated by assessing the levels of DNA double-strand breaks in peripheral blood lymphocytes by immunocytofluorescence-based quantification of γ-H2AX foci. A greater than two-fold increase in the fraction of damaged lymphocytes was observed in all animal cohorts within the evacuation zone, and the levels of DNA damage decreased slightly over the 700-day sample collection period. While the extent of damage appeared to be independent of the distance from the accident site and the estimated radiation dose from radiocesium, we observed age-dependent accumulation of DNA damage. Thus, this study, which was the first to evaluate the biological impact of the FNPP accident utilizing the γ-H2AX assays, indicated the causal relation between high levels of DNA damage in animals living in the evacuation zone and the FNPP accident.

  2. An aftermath analysis of the 2014 coal mine accident in Soma, Turkey: Use of risk performance indicators based on historical experience.

    PubMed

    Spada, Matteo; Burgherr, Peter

    2016-02-01

    On the 13th of May 2014 a fire related incident in the Soma coal mine in Turkey caused 301 fatalities and more than 80 injuries. This has been the largest coal mine accident in Turkey, and in the OECD country group, so far. This study investigated if such a disastrous event should be expected, in a statistical sense, based on historical observations. For this purpose, PSI's ENSAD database is used to extract accident data for the period 1970-2014. Four different cases are analyzed, i.e., OECD, OECD w/o Turkey, Turkey and USA. Analysis of temporal trends for annual numbers of accidents and fatalities indicated a non-significant decreasing tendency for OECD and OECD w/o Turkey and a significant one for USA, whereas for Turkey both measures showed an increase over time. The expectation analysis revealed clearly that an event with the consequences of the Soma accident is rather unlikely for OECD, OECD w/o Turkey and USA. In contrast, such a severe accident has a substantially higher expectation for Turkey, i.e. it cannot be considered an extremely rare event, based on historical experience. This indicates a need for improved safety measures and stricter regulations in the Turkish coal mining sector in order to get closer to the rest of OECD. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Behavior Modification with an Aphasic Man

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ince, Laurence P.

    1973-01-01

    Techniques based upon operant conditioning were employed with a male patient who had sustained a cerebrovascular accident with consequent right hemiplegia and expressive asphasia. A combination of positive verbal reinforcement and feedback of progress were utilized to improve language fluency and speed of typing. (Author)

  4. 10 CFR 40.60 - Reporting requirements.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... to avoid exposures to radiation or radioactive materials that could exceed regulatory limits or... releases exceeding regulatory limits, to prevent exposures to radiation and radioactive materials exceeding regulatory limits, or to mitigate the consequences of an accident; (ii) The equipment is required to be...

  5. 10 CFR 40.60 - Reporting requirements.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... to avoid exposures to radiation or radioactive materials that could exceed regulatory limits or... releases exceeding regulatory limits, to prevent exposures to radiation and radioactive materials exceeding regulatory limits, or to mitigate the consequences of an accident; (ii) The equipment is required to be...

  6. 10 CFR 40.60 - Reporting requirements.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... to avoid exposures to radiation or radioactive materials that could exceed regulatory limits or... releases exceeding regulatory limits, to prevent exposures to radiation and radioactive materials exceeding regulatory limits, or to mitigate the consequences of an accident; (ii) The equipment is required to be...

  7. Severe accident modeling of a PWR core with different cladding materials

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Johnson, S. C.; Henry, R. E.; Paik, C. Y.

    2012-07-01

    The MAAP v.4 software has been used to model two severe accident scenarios in nuclear power reactors with three different materials as fuel cladding. The TMI-2 severe accident was modeled with Zircaloy-2 and SiC as clad material and a SBO accident in a Zion-like, 4-loop, Westinghouse PWR was modeled with Zircaloy-2, SiC, and 304 stainless steel as clad material. TMI-2 modeling results indicate that lower peak core temperatures, less H 2 (g) produced, and a smaller mass of molten material would result if SiC was substituted for Zircaloy-2 as cladding. SBO modeling results indicate that the calculated time to RCSmore » rupture would increase by approximately 20 minutes if SiC was substituted for Zircaloy-2. Additionally, when an extended SBO accident (RCS creep rupture failure disabled) was modeled, significantly lower peak core temperatures, less H 2 (g) produced, and a smaller mass of molten material would be generated by substituting SiC for Zircaloy-2 or stainless steel cladding. Because the rate of SiC oxidation reaction with elevated temperature H{sub 2}O (g) was set to 0 for this work, these results should be considered preliminary. However, the benefits of SiC as a more accident tolerant clad material have been shown and additional investigation of SiC as an LWR core material are warranted, specifically investigations of the oxidation kinetics of SiC in H{sub 2}O (g) over the range of temperatures and pressures relevant to severe accidents in LWR 's. (authors)« less

  8. Assessment of trend and seasonality in road accident data: an Iranian case study.

    PubMed

    Razzaghi, Alireza; Bahrampour, Abbas; Baneshi, Mohammad Reza; Zolala, Farzaneh

    2013-06-01

    Road traffic accidents and their related deaths have become a major concern, particularly in developing countries. Iran has adopted a series of policies and interventions to control the high number of accidents occurring over the past few years. In this study we used a time series model to understand the trend of accidents, and ascertain the viability of applying ARIMA models on data from Taybad city. This study is a cross-sectional study. We used data from accidents occurring in Taybad between 2007 and 2011. We obtained the data from the Ministry of Health (MOH) and used the time series method with a time lag of one month. After plotting the trend, non-stationary data in mean and variance were removed using Box-Cox transformation and a differencing method respectively. The ACF and PACF plots were used to control the stationary situation. The traffic accidents in our study had an increasing trend over the five years of study. Based on ACF and PACF plots gained after applying Box-Cox transformation and differencing, data did not fit to a time series model. Therefore, neither ARIMA model nor seasonality were observed. Traffic accidents in Taybad have an upward trend. In addition, we expected either the AR model, MA model or ARIMA model to have a seasonal trend, yet this was not observed in this analysis. Several reasons may have contributed to this situation, such as uncertainty of the quality of data, weather changes, and behavioural factors that are not taken into account by time series analysis.

  9. Analyses of non-fatal accidents in an opencast mine by logistic regression model - a case study.

    PubMed

    Onder, Seyhan; Mutlu, Mert

    2017-09-01

    Accidents cause major damage for both workers and enterprises in the mining industry. To reduce the number of occupational accidents, these incidents should be properly registered and carefully analysed. This study efficiently examines the Aegean Lignite Enterprise (ELI) of Turkish Coal Enterprises (TKI) in Soma between 2006 and 2011, and opencast coal mine occupational accident records were used for statistical analyses. A total of 231 occupational accidents were analysed for this study. The accident records were categorized into seven groups: area, reason, occupation, part of body, age, shift hour and lost days. The SPSS package program was used in this study for logistic regression analyses, which predicted the probability of accidents resulting in greater or less than 3 lost workdays for non-fatal injuries. Social facilities-area of surface installations, workshops and opencast mining areas are the areas with the highest probability for accidents with greater than 3 lost workdays for non-fatal injuries, while the reasons with the highest probability for these types of accidents are transporting and manual handling. Additionally, the model was tested for such reported accidents that occurred in 2012 for the ELI in Soma and estimated the probability of exposure to accidents with lost workdays correctly by 70%.

  10. Bayesian-network-based safety risk assessment for steel construction projects.

    PubMed

    Leu, Sou-Sen; Chang, Ching-Miao

    2013-05-01

    There are four primary accident types at steel building construction (SC) projects: falls (tumbles), object falls, object collapse, and electrocution. Several systematic safety risk assessment approaches, such as fault tree analysis (FTA) and failure mode and effect criticality analysis (FMECA), have been used to evaluate safety risks at SC projects. However, these traditional methods ineffectively address dependencies among safety factors at various levels that fail to provide early warnings to prevent occupational accidents. To overcome the limitations of traditional approaches, this study addresses the development of a safety risk-assessment model for SC projects by establishing the Bayesian networks (BN) based on fault tree (FT) transformation. The BN-based safety risk-assessment model was validated against the safety inspection records of six SC building projects and nine projects in which site accidents occurred. The ranks of posterior probabilities from the BN model were highly consistent with the accidents that occurred at each project site. The model accurately provides site safety-management abilities by calculating the probabilities of safety risks and further analyzing the causes of accidents based on their relationships in BNs. In practice, based on the analysis of accident risks and significant safety factors, proper preventive safety management strategies can be established to reduce the occurrence of accidents on SC sites. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Estimation Of 137Cs Using Atmospheric Dispersion Models After A Nuclear Reactor Accident

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Simsek, V.; Kindap, T.; Unal, A.; Pozzoli, L.; Karaca, M.

    2012-04-01

    Nuclear energy will continue to have an important role in the production of electricity in the world as the need of energy grows up. But the safety of power plants will always be a question mark for people because of the accidents happened in the past. Chernobyl nuclear reactor accident which happened in 26 April 1986 was the biggest nuclear accident ever. Because of explosion and fire large quantities of radioactive material was released to the atmosphere. The release of the radioactive particles because of accident affected not only its region but the entire Northern hemisphere. But much of the radioactive material was spread over west USSR and Europe. There are many studies about distribution of radioactive particles and the deposition of radionuclides all over Europe. But this was not true for Turkey especially for the deposition of radionuclides released after Chernobyl nuclear reactor accident and the radiation doses received by people. The aim of this study is to determine the radiation doses received by people living in Turkish territory after Chernobyl nuclear reactor accident and use this method in case of an emergency. For this purpose The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model was used to simulate meteorological conditions after the accident. The results of WRF which were for the 12 days after accident were used as input data for the HYSPLIT model. NOAA-ARL's (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Air Resources Laboratory) dispersion model HYSPLIT was used to simulate the 137Cs distrubition. The deposition values of 137Cs in our domain after Chernobyl Nuclear Reactor Accident were between 1.2E-37 Bq/m2 and 3.5E+08 Bq/m2. The results showed that Turkey was affected because of the accident especially the Black Sea Region. And the doses were calculated by using GENII-LIN which is multipurpose health physics code.

  12. Relationship between accident severity and full-scale crash test. Volume II, Appendices

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1984-08-01

    Available accident files are used to generate a 4l2-accident data base of guardrail impacts. This base is analyzed to develop a statistical model for predicting accident severity index (ASI) as a function of vehicle type or weight, impact speed, and ...

  13. A method to relate chemical accident properties and expert judgements in order to derive useful information for the development of Environment-Accident Index.

    PubMed

    Scott Andersson, Asa; Tysklind, Mats; Fängmark, Ingrid

    2007-08-17

    The environment consists of a variety of different compartments and processes that act together in a complex system that complicate the environmental risk assessment after a chemical accident. The Environment-Accident Index (EAI) is an example of a tool based on a strategy to join the properties of a chemical with site-specific properties to facilitate this assessment and to be used in the planning process. In the development of the EAI it is necessary to make an unbiased judgement of relevant variables to include in the formula and to estimate their relative importance. The development of EAI has so far included the assimilation of chemical accidents, selection of a representative set of chemical accidents, and response values (representing effects in the environment after a chemical accident) have been developed by means of an expert panel. The developed responses were then related to the chemical and site-specific properties, through a mathematical model based on multivariate modelling (PLS), to create an improved EAI model. This resulted in EAI(new), a PLS based EAI model connected to a new classification scale. The advantages of EAI(new) compared to the old EAI (EAI(old)) is that it can be calculated without the use of tables, it can estimate the effects for all included responses and make a rough classification of chemical accidents according to the new classification scale. Finally EAI(new) is a more stable model than EAI(old), built on a valid base of accident scenarios which makes it more reliable to use for a variety of chemicals and situations as it covers a broader spectra of accident scenarios. EAI(new) can be expressed as a regression model to facilitate the calculation of the index for persons that do not have access to PLS. Future work can be; an external validation of EAI(new); to complete the formula structure; to adjust the classification scale; and to make a real life evaluation of EAI(new).

  14. Analysis of radiation safety for Small Modular Reactor (SMR) on PWR-100 MWe type

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Udiyani, P. M.; Husnayani, I.; Deswandri; Sunaryo, G. R.

    2018-02-01

    Indonesia as an archipelago country, including big, medium and small islands is suitable to construction of Small Medium/Modular reactors. Preliminary technology assessment on various SMR has been started, indeed the SMR is grouped into Light Water Reactor, Gas Cooled Reactor, and Solid Cooled Reactor and from its site it is group into Land Based reactor and Water Based Reactor. Fukushima accident made people doubt about the safety of Nuclear Power Plant (NPP), which impact on the public perception of the safety of nuclear power plants. The paper will describe the assessment of safety and radiation consequences on site for normal operation and Design Basis Accident postulation of SMR based on PWR-100 MWe in Bangka Island. Consequences of radiation for normal operation simulated for 3 units SMR. The source term was generated from an inventory by using ORIGEN-2 software and the consequence of routine calculated by PC-Cream and accident by PC Cosyma. The adopted methodology used was based on site-specific meteorological and spatial data. According to calculation by PC-CREAM 08 computer code, the highest individual dose in site area for adults is 5.34E-02 mSv/y in ESE direction within 1 km distance from stack. The result of calculation is that doses on public for normal operation below 1mSv/y. The calculation result from PC Cosyma, the highest individual dose is 1.92.E+00 mSv in ESE direction within 1km distance from stack. The total collective dose (all pathway) is 3.39E-01 manSv, with dominant supporting from cloud pathway. Results show that there are no evacuation countermeasure will be taken based on the regulation of emergency.

  15. Thyroid Consequences of the Fukushima Nuclear Reactor Accident

    PubMed Central

    Nagataki, Shigenobu

    2012-01-01

    Background A special report, ‘The Fukushima Accident’, was delivered at the 35th Annual Meeting of the European Thyroid Association in Krakow on September 11, 2011, and this study is the follow-up of the special report. Objectives To present a preliminary review of potential thyroid consequences of the 2011 Fukushima nuclear reactor accident. Methods Numerous new data have been presented in Japanese, and most of them are available on the website from each research institute and/or from each municipality. The review was made using these data from the website. Results When individual radiation doses were expressed as values in more than 99% of residents, radiation doses by behavior survey in evacuation and deliberate evacuation areas were less than 10 mSv in the first 4 months, and internal radiation doses measured by whole body counters were less than 1 mSv/year. Individual thyroid radiation doses were less than 50 mSv (intervention levels) even in evacuation areas. As for health consequences, no one died and no one suffered from acute effects. The thyroid ultrasound examination is in progress and following examination of almost 40,000 children, 35% of them have nodules and/or cysts but no cancers. Conclusions Countermeasures against radiation must consider current individual measured values, although every effort must be taken to reconstruct radiation doses as precisely as possible. At present, the difference of thyroid radiation dose between Chernobyl and Fukushima appears to be due to the strict control of milk started within a week after the accident in Fukushima. Since the iodine-131 plume moved around in wide areas and for a long time, the method of thyroid protection must be reconsidered. PMID:24783014

  16. Driver Performance Problems of Intercity Bus Public Transportation Safety in Indonesia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Suraji, A.; Harnen, S.; Wicaksono, A.; Djakfar, L.

    2017-11-01

    The risk of an inter-city bus public accident can be influenced by various factors such as the driver’s performance. Therefore, knowing the various influential factors related to driver’s performance is very necessary as an effort to realize road traffic safety. This study aims to determine the factors that fall on the accident associated with the driver’s performance and make mathematical modeling factors that affect the accident. Methods of data retrieval were obtained from NTSC secondary data. The data was processed by identifying factors that cause the accident. Furthermore data processing and analysis used the PCA method to obtain mathematical modeling of factors influencing the inter-city bus accidents. The results showed that the main factors that cause accidents are health, discipline, and driver competence.

  17. Workflow interruptions, cognitive failure and near-accidents in health care.

    PubMed

    Elfering, Achim; Grebner, Simone; Ebener, Corinne

    2015-01-01

    Errors are frequent in health care. A specific model was tested that affirms failure in cognitive action regulation to mediate the influence of nurses' workflow interruptions and safety conscientiousness on near-accidents in health care. One hundred and sixty-five nurses from seven Swiss hospitals participated in a questionnaire survey. Structural equation modelling confirmed the hypothesised mediation model. Cognitive failure in action regulation significantly mediated the influence of workflow interruptions on near-accidents (p < .05). An indirect path from conscientiousness to near-accidents via cognitive failure in action regulation was also significant (p < .05). Compliance with safety regulations was significantly related to cognitive failure and near-accidents; moreover, cognitive failure mediated the association between compliance and near-accidents (p < .05). Contrary to expectations, compliance with safety regulations was not related to workflow interruptions. Workflow interruptions caused by colleagues, patients and organisational constraints are likely to trigger errors in nursing. Work redesign is recommended to reduce cognitive failure and improve safety of nurses and patients.

  18. Ethical Issues Related to the Promotion of a "100 mSv Threshold Assumption" in Japan after the Fukushima Nuclear Accident in 2011: Background and Consequences.

    PubMed

    Tsuda, Toshihide; Lindahl, Lena; Tokinobu, Akiko

    2017-06-01

    This article describes the debates in Japan regarding the 100 mSv threshold assumption and ethical issues related to it, and explores the background to distorted risk information and absence of risk communication in Japan. Then we seek proper risk communication based on scientific evidence. On March 11, 2011 an accident occurred at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant due to the Great East Japan Earthquake. Since then a number of misunderstandings have become common in Japan as a result of public statements by the Japanese and local governments that have no basis in medical science or are contradictory to medical science. Consequently, not only the population of Fukushima Prefecture, but also others, have been subjected to unnecessary exposure to radiation, against the As Low As Reasonably Achievable (ALARA) principle. The number of cases of thyroid cancer has increased by one or two orders of magnitude since the accident in Fukushima. However, the population has hardly been given any correct information from the central and local governments, medical societies, and media. The center of this problem is a statement on radiation-induced cancer (including thyroid cancer) made by the Japanese Government and Japanese medical academic societies indicating that "exposure of less than 100 mSv gives rise to no excess risk of cancer, and even if there is some resulting cancer it will be impossible to detect it" (this will be referred to as "the 100 mSv threshold assumption" from now onward). They have been saying this since April 2011 and have made no effort to correct it. Many Japanese began to notice this but correct information on radiation protection has reached only one part of the population. Risk communication should be based on scientific evidence, and providing it as information for the public is a key element. In Japan, governments and academic societies tried to communicate with the public without doing it. Ethical problems after the accident in Fukushima can be understood from the consequences of the mistakes in both risk information and risk communication in Japan after 2011.

  19. Normal accidents: Living with high-risk technologies

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Perrow, Ch.

    1984-01-01

    It was a major nuclear accident, the one at Three Mile Island in 1979, that turned Perrow's attention to accidents in general. A specialist in the sociology of organizations, he soon learned that events at TMI were not simply the result of an engineering failure or the result of operator error; rather, they were a consequence of systems failure. What the author learned from his research into the accident at TMI is that there was no coherent theory of accidents in either the engineering or the social science literature, so he set out to create one. This book discusses themore » science of accident research. Since Perrow is an outsider to all of the many technical fields reviewed in the book, ranging from nuclear power to marine transport to DNA research, experts may challenge his sources and point out his errors. Perrow's central thesis is that accidents are inevitable - that is, they are ''normal'' - in technologies that have two system characteristics that he terms ''interactive complexity'' and ''tight coupling''. Using these concepts, Perrow constructs a theory of systems which he believes to be unique in the literature on accidents and the literature on organizations. His theory concentrates upon the properties of systems themselves, rather than on the errors that owners, designers and operators make in running them. He seeks a more basic explanation than operator error; faulty design or equipment; inadequately trained personnel; or the system is too big, under-financed or mismanaged. Nuclear power in the United States may not survive its current economic and regulatory troubles, but discussion continues. Only a small part of the debate concerns plant safety: economic competitiveness, nuclear arms proliferation and nuclear waste disposal are the salient themes.« less

  20. Relationship between accident severity and full-scale crash test. Volume I, Technical research effort

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1984-08-01

    Available accident files are used to generate a 4l2-accident data base of guardrail impacts. This base is analyzed to develop a statistical model for predicting accident severity index (ASI) as a function of vehicle type or weight, impact speed, and ...

  1. Spatio-temporal patterns of hazards and their use in risk assessment and mitigation. Case study of road accidents in Romania

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Catalin Stanga, Iulian

    2013-04-01

    Road accidents are among the leading causes of death in many world countries, partly as an inherent consequence of the increasing mobility of today society. The World Health Organization estimates that 1.3 million people died in road accidents in 2011, which means 186 deaths per million. The tragic picture is completed by millions of peoples experiencing different physical injuries or by the enormous social and economic costs that these events imply. Romania has one of the most unsafe road networks within the European Union, with annual averages of 9400 accidents, 8300 injuries and almost 2680 fatalities (2007-2012). An average of 141 death per million is more than twice the average fatality rate in European Union (about 60 death per million). Other specific indicators (accidents or fatalities reported to the road length, vehicle fleet size, driving license owners or adult population etc.) are even worst in the same European context. Road accidents are caused by a complex series of factors, some of them being a relatively constant premise, while others act as catalyzing factors or triggering agent: road features and quality, vehicle technical state, weather conditions, human related factors etc. All these lead to a complex equation with too many unknown variables, making almost impossible a probabilistic approach. However, the high concentration of accidents in a region or in some road sectors is caused by the existence of a specific context, created by factors with permanent or repetitive character, and leads to the idea of a spatial autocorrelation between locations of different adjoining accident. In the same way, the increasing frequency of road accidents and of their causes repeatability in different periods of the year would allow to identify those black timeframes with higher incidence of road accidents. Identifying and analyzing the road blackspots (hotspots) and black zones would help to improve road safety by acting against the common causes that create the spatial or temporal clustering of crash accidents. Since the 1990's, Geographical Informational Systems (GIS) became a very important tool for traffic and road safety management, allowing not only the spatial and multifactorial analysis, but also graphical and non-graphical outputs. The current paper presents an accessible GIS methodology to study the spatio-temporal pattern of injury related road accidents, to identify the high density accidents zones, to make a cluster analysis, to create multicriterial typologies, to identify spatial and temporal similarities and to explain them. In this purpose, a Geographical Information System was created, allowing a complex analysis that involves not only the events, but also a large set of interrelated and spatially linked attributes. The GIS includes the accidents as georeferenced point elements with a spatially linked attribute database: identification information (date, location details); accident type; main, secondary and aggravating causes; data about driver; vehicle information; consequences (damages, injured peoples and fatalities). Each attribute has its own number code that allows both the statistical analysis and the spatial interrogation. The database includes those road accidents that led to physical injuries and loss of human lives between 2007 and 2012 and the spatial analysis was realized using TNTmips 7.3 software facilities. Data aggregation and processing allowed creating the spatial pattern of injury related road accidents through Kernel density estimation at three different levels (national - Romania; county level - Iasi County; local level - Iasi town). Spider graphs were used to create the temporal pattern or road accidents at three levels (daily, weekly and monthly) directly related to their causes. Moreover the spatial and temporal database relates the natural hazards (glazed frost, fog, and blizzard) with the human made ones, giving the opportunity to evaluate the nature of uncertainties in risk assessment. At the end, this paper provides a clustering methodology based on several environmental indicators intended to classify the spatial and temporal hotspots of road traffic insecurity. The results are a useful guide for planners and decision makers in developing effective road safety strategies and measures.

  2. Estimating Traffic Accidents in Turkey Using Differential Evolution Algorithm

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Akgüngör, Ali Payıdar; Korkmaz, Ersin

    2017-06-01

    Estimating traffic accidents play a vital role to apply road safety procedures. This study proposes Differential Evolution Algorithm (DEA) models to estimate the number of accidents in Turkey. In the model development, population (P) and the number of vehicles (N) are selected as model parameters. Three model forms, linear, exponential and semi-quadratic models, are developed using DEA with the data covering from 2000 to 2014. Developed models are statistically compared to select the best fit model. The results of the DE models show that the linear model form is suitable to estimate the number of accidents. The statistics of this form is better than other forms in terms of performance criteria which are the Mean Absolute Percentage Errors (MAPE) and the Root Mean Square Errors (RMSE). To investigate the performance of linear DE model for future estimations, a ten-year period from 2015 to 2024 is considered. The results obtained from future estimations reveal the suitability of DE method for road safety applications.

  3. Potential for Fuel Tank Fire and Hydrodynamic Ram from Uncontained Aircraft Engine Debris

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1997-01-01

    This report addresses the potential consequences of the impact and penetration of fuel tanks by debris from uncontained engine failures on commercial jet aircraft. The report presents a brief review of accident data and of the pertinent technical lit...

  4. [Invasion of microorganisms in bronchial mucosa of liquidators of the Chernobyl accident consequences].

    PubMed

    Poliakova, V A; Suchko, V A; Tereshchenko, V P; Bazyka, D A; Golovnia, O M; Rudavskaia, G A

    2001-01-01

    Bronchial bioptates of 97 liquidators of the Chernobyl accident consequences with chronic bronchitis and 23 patients of control nosological group as well as sputum (174 persons) and BAL (22 persons) of liquidators with chronic obstructive lung disease (COLD) were studied to define pathogenic role of automicroflora in the development of lung diseases. Such methods as electron microscopy, immunohistochemistry and microbiology were used. The revealed invasion of microorganisms occurred against the background of pathology of superficial bronchial epithelium with a decrease of HLA-DR and CD23 lymphocytes and increase of CD1c lymphocytes in lamina propria of bronchial mucosa of the liquidators. Verification of microorganisms characteristic of the upper respiratory tracts and atypical presence of Escherichia coli were found in the contents of the lower parts of broncho-pulmonary system of the liquidators. The obtained results testify to the activation of automicroflora and appearance of pathogenic microorganisms were caused by deterioration of specific and non-specific immune protection in liquidators with COLD.

  5. Radiation-Driven Migration: The Case of Minamisoma City, Fukushima, Japan, after the Fukushima Nuclear Accident

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Hui; Yan, Wanglin; Oba, Akihiro; Zhang, Wei

    2014-01-01

    The emigration of residents following the Fukushima nuclear accident has resulted in aging and depopulation problems in radiation-contaminated areas. The recovery of affected areas, and even those areas with low radioactive pollution levels, is still heavily affected by this problem. This slow recovery consequently affects immigration patterns. This review aims to present possible factors that have contributed to this dilemma. We first present an overview of the evacuation protocol that was administered in the study area following the Fukushima accident. We then analyze characteristics of the subsequent exodus by comparing population data for both before and after the accident. Based on the findings of existing literature, we identify three causes of emigration: (1) The health risks of living in a low radiation zone are still unknown; (2) The post-disaster psychological disturbance and distrust of government information promotes the emigration of evacuees; (3) an absence of economic vitality and of a leading industry renders the area less attractive to individuals residing outside of the city. Further research is needed on this issue, especially with respect to countermeasures for addressing this problem. PMID:25207491

  6. The differentiated assessment of damage to economy of subjects of the Siberian Federal District from road and transport accident rate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Petrov, Artur I.; Svistunova, Vera A.; Petrova, Daria A.

    2018-01-01

    The results of assessment of damage from the road accident rate in subjects of the Siberian Federal District (SFD) of the Russian Federation are presented in the article. The thesis about spatial differentiation of the Gross Regional Product (GRP) losses in different regions of the country because of people’s death and injuries in the road accidents (RA) and due to formations of property and ecological damage was chosen as a working hypothesis. The calculations, carried out for 12 subjects of the SFD, confirmed this idea. The range of calculated values of economic damage from road accident rate (in % of GRP) was from 1.3 (Tomsk region) to 12.6 (Republic of Tyva) in 2015. In article the attempt to explain the received result by heterogeneous development of economics in various Russian regions is made. The consequence of it is a heterogeneous quality of people’s life and quite various perception of life value by inhabitants of different regions that influences their life safety level.

  7. Physical, social and emotional function after work accidents: a medicolegal perspective.

    PubMed

    Holtedahl, Robin; Veiersted, Kaj Bo

    2007-01-01

    The aim of this study was to analyse social and functional consequences of work accidents in a group of workers' compensation claimants who had been referred from the National Insurance Administration for a medicolegal assessment. The injured workers were evaluated on average 3 years after their accidents. Their medical records were analysed, and each injury was scored according to the Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS). Participants completed the Short Form Questionnaire (SF-36). Factors relating to outcome on SF-36 were analysed using univariate and multivariate methods. 191 claimants returned the SF-36 (62%), 83% of the respondents had an AIS score of less than two, 33% reported working full time. Compared to population-based norms, the respondents reported significantly reduced health on all eight scales of SF-36. Better health and function was mainly associated with a higher level of education and more serious injuries. The extent of social support in the workplace after the accident was only partly related to outcome. The importance of psychosocial factors when making injury assessments in a medicolegal setting is highlighted.

  8. Traffic accident reconstruction and an approach for prediction of fault rates using artificial neural networks: A case study in Turkey.

    PubMed

    Can Yilmaz, Ali; Aci, Cigdem; Aydin, Kadir

    2016-08-17

    Currently, in Turkey, fault rates in traffic accidents are determined according to the initiative of accident experts (no speed analyses of vehicles just considering accident type) and there are no specific quantitative instructions on fault rates related to procession of accidents which just represents the type of collision (side impact, head to head, rear end, etc.) in No. 2918 Turkish Highway Traffic Act (THTA 1983). The aim of this study is to introduce a scientific and systematic approach for determination of fault rates in most frequent property damage-only (PDO) traffic accidents in Turkey. In this study, data (police reports, skid marks, deformation, crush depth, etc.) collected from the most frequent and controversial accident types (4 sample vehicle-vehicle scenarios) that consist of PDO were inserted into a reconstruction software called vCrash. Sample real-world scenarios were simulated on the software to generate different vehicle deformations that also correspond to energy-equivalent speed data just before the crash. These values were used to train a multilayer feedforward artificial neural network (MFANN), function fitting neural network (FITNET, a specialized version of MFANN), and generalized regression neural network (GRNN) models within 10-fold cross-validation to predict fault rates without using software. The performance of the artificial neural network (ANN) prediction models was evaluated using mean square error (MSE) and multiple correlation coefficient (R). It was shown that the MFANN model performed better for predicting fault rates (i.e., lower MSE and higher R) than FITNET and GRNN models for accident scenarios 1, 2, and 3, whereas FITNET performed the best for scenario 4. The FITNET model showed the second best results for prediction for the first 3 scenarios. Because there is no training phase in GRNN, the GRNN model produced results much faster than MFANN and FITNET models. However, the GRNN model had the worst prediction results. The R values for prediction of fault rates were close to 1 for all folds and scenarios. This study focuses on exhibiting new aspects and scientific approaches for determining fault rates of involvement in most frequent PDO accidents occurring in Turkey by discussing some deficiencies in THTA and without regard to initiative and/or experience of experts. This study yields judicious decisions to be made especially on forensic investigations and events involving insurance companies. Referring to this approach, injury/fatal and/or pedestrian-related accidents may be analyzed as future work by developing new scientific models.

  9. System analysis with improved thermo-mechanical fuel rod models for modeling current and advanced LWR materials in accident scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Porter, Ian Edward

    A nuclear reactor systems code has the ability to model the system response in an accident scenario based on known initial conditions at the onset of the transient. However, there has been a tendency for these codes to lack the detailed thermo-mechanical fuel rod response models needed for accurate prediction of fuel rod failure. This proposed work will couple today's most widely used steady-state (FRAPCON) and transient (FRAPTRAN) fuel rod models with a systems code TRACE for best-estimate modeling of system response in accident scenarios such as a loss of coolant accident (LOCA). In doing so, code modifications will be made to model gamma heating in LWRs during steady-state and accident conditions and to improve fuel rod thermal/mechanical analysis by allowing axial nodalization of burnup-dependent phenomena such as swelling, cladding creep and oxidation. With the ability to model both burnup-dependent parameters and transient fuel rod response, a fuel dispersal study will be conducted using a hypothetical accident scenario under both PWR and BWR conditions to determine the amount of fuel dispersed under varying conditions. Due to the fuel fragmentation size and internal rod pressure both being dependent on burnup, this analysis will be conducted at beginning, middle and end of cycle to examine the effects that cycle time can play on fuel rod failure and dispersal. Current fuel rod and system codes used by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) are compilations of legacy codes with only commonly used light water reactor materials, Uranium Dioxide (UO2), Mixed Oxide (U/PuO 2) and zirconium alloys. However, the events at Fukushima Daiichi and Three Mile Island accident have shown the need for exploration into advanced materials possessing improved accident tolerance. This work looks to further modify the NRC codes to include silicon carbide (SiC), an advanced cladding material proposed by current DOE funded research on accident tolerant fuels (ATF). Several additional fuels will also be analyzed, including uranium nitride (UN), uranium carbide (UC) and uranium silicide (U3Si2). Focusing on the system response in an accident scenario, an emphasis is placed on the fracture mechanics of the ceramic cladding by design the fuel rods to eliminate pellet cladding mechanical interaction (PCMI). The time to failure and how much of the fuel in the reactor fails with an advanced fuel design will be analyzed and compared to the current UO2/Zircaloy design using a full scale reactor model.

  10. Prediction of road accidents: A Bayesian hierarchical approach.

    PubMed

    Deublein, Markus; Schubert, Matthias; Adey, Bryan T; Köhler, Jochen; Faber, Michael H

    2013-03-01

    In this paper a novel methodology for the prediction of the occurrence of road accidents is presented. The methodology utilizes a combination of three statistical methods: (1) gamma-updating of the occurrence rates of injury accidents and injured road users, (2) hierarchical multivariate Poisson-lognormal regression analysis taking into account correlations amongst multiple dependent model response variables and effects of discrete accident count data e.g. over-dispersion, and (3) Bayesian inference algorithms, which are applied by means of data mining techniques supported by Bayesian Probabilistic Networks in order to represent non-linearity between risk indicating and model response variables, as well as different types of uncertainties which might be present in the development of the specific models. Prior Bayesian Probabilistic Networks are first established by means of multivariate regression analysis of the observed frequencies of the model response variables, e.g. the occurrence of an accident, and observed values of the risk indicating variables, e.g. degree of road curvature. Subsequently, parameter learning is done using updating algorithms, to determine the posterior predictive probability distributions of the model response variables, conditional on the values of the risk indicating variables. The methodology is illustrated through a case study using data of the Austrian rural motorway network. In the case study, on randomly selected road segments the methodology is used to produce a model to predict the expected number of accidents in which an injury has occurred and the expected number of light, severe and fatally injured road users. Additionally, the methodology is used for geo-referenced identification of road sections with increased occurrence probabilities of injury accident events on a road link between two Austrian cities. It is shown that the proposed methodology can be used to develop models to estimate the occurrence of road accidents for any road network provided that the required data are available. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Seveso 1986, Chernobyl 1976: a physicist' look at 2 ecological disasters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ratti, S.

    2004-05-01

    Seveso suffered a chemical accident with a severe loss of supertoxic material (TCCD) released in the atmosphere; Chernobyl was a world known nuclear accident. The pollution induced by the two accident are analysed in term of fractal models. The first case involved a limited micro ecological system; the second one spread over a macro ecological system. The pollution is reproduced by means of simple Fractal Sum of Pulses models in the Seveso region; for the Chernobyl accident in northern Italy and in several european Countries. The 2 accidents are also analysed in terms of Universal Multifractals showing that thethe parameters α and C1 are those describing respectively rainfall (Seveso) and cloud formation (Chernobyl).

  12. Exploring the factors affecting motorway accident severity in England using the generalised ordered logistic regression model.

    PubMed

    Michalaki, Paraskevi; Quddus, Mohammed A; Pitfield, David; Huetson, Andrew

    2015-12-01

    The severity of motorway accidents that occurred on the hard shoulder (HS) is higher than for the main carriageway (MC). This paper compares and contrasts the most important factors affecting the severity of HS and MC accidents on motorways in England. Using police reported accident data, the accidents that occurred on motorways in England are grouped into two categories (i.e., HS and MC) according to the location. A generalized ordered logistic regression model is then applied to identify the factors affecting the severity of HS and MC accidents on motorways. The factors examined include accident and vehicle characteristics, traffic and environment conditions, as well as other behavioral factors. Results suggest that the factors positively affecting the severity include: number of vehicles involved in the accident, peak-hour traffic time, and low visibility. Differences between HS and MC accidents are identified, with the most important being the involvement of heavy goods vehicles (HGVs) and driver fatigue, which are found to be more crucial in increasing the severity of HS accidents. Measures to increase awareness of HGV drivers regarding the risk of fatigue when driving on motorways, and especially the nearside lane, should be taken by the stakeholders. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  13. The role of personality traits and driving experience in self-reported risky driving behaviors and accident risk among Chinese drivers.

    PubMed

    Tao, Da; Zhang, Rui; Qu, Xingda

    2017-02-01

    The purpose of this study was to explore the role of personality traits and driving experience in the prediction of risky driving behaviors and accident risk among Chinese population. A convenience sample of drivers (n=511; mean (SD) age=34.2 (8.8) years) completed a self-report questionnaire that was designed based on validated scales for measuring personality traits, risky driving behaviors and self-reported accident risk. Results from structural equation modeling analysis demonstrated that the data fit well with our theoretical model. While showing no direct effects on accident risk, personality traits had direct effects on risky driving behaviors, and yielded indirect effects on accident risk mediated by risky driving behaviors. Both driving experience and risky driving behaviors directly predicted accident risk and accounted for 15% of its variance. There was little gender difference in personality traits, risky driving behaviors and accident risk. The findings emphasized the importance of personality traits and driving experience in the understanding of risky driving behaviors and accident risk among Chinese drivers and provided new insight into the design of evidence-based driving education and accident prevention interventions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Consequences of the nuclear power plant accident at Chernobyl.

    PubMed Central

    Ginzburg, H M; Reis, E

    1991-01-01

    The Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant accident, in the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic (SSR), on April 26, 1986, was the first major nuclear power plant accident that resulted in a large-scale fire and subsequent explosions, immediate and delayed deaths of plant operators and emergency service workers, and the radioactive contamination of a significant land area. The release of radioactive material, over a 10-day period, resulted in millions of Soviets, and other Europeans, being exposed to measurable levels of radioactive fallout. Because of the effects of wind and rain, the radioactive nuclide fallout distribution patterns are not well defined, though they appear to be focused in three contiguous Soviet Republics: the Ukrainian SSR, the Byelorussian SSR, and the Russian Soviet Federated Socialist Republic. Further, because of the many radioactive nuclides (krypton, xenon, cesium, iodine, strontium, plutonium) released by the prolonged fires at Chernobyl, the long-term medical, psychological, social, and economic effects will require careful and prolonged study. Specifically, studies on the medical (leukemia, cancers, thyroid disease) and psychological (reactive depressions, post-traumatic stress disorders, family disorganization) consequences of continued low dose radiation exposure in the affected villages and towns need to be conducted so that a coherent, comprehensive, community-oriented plan may evolve that will not cause those already affected any additional harm and confusion. Images p38-a p38-b PMID:1899937

  15. Infant homicide and accidental death in the United States, 1940-2005: ethics and epidemiological classification.

    PubMed

    Riggs, Jack E; Hobbs, Gerald R

    2011-07-01

    Potential ethical issues can arise during the process of epidemiological classification. For example, unnatural infant deaths are classified as accidental deaths or homicides. Societal sensitivity to the physical abuse and neglect of children has increased over recent decades. This enhanced sensitivity could impact reported infant homicide rates. Infant homicide and accident mortality rates in boys and girls in the USA from 1940 to 2005 were analysed. In 1940, infant accident mortality rates were over 20 times greater than infant homicide rates in both boys and girls. After about 1980, when the ratio of infant accident mortality rates to infant homicide rates decreased to less than five, and the sum of infant accident and homicide rates became relatively constant, further decreases in infant accident mortality rates were associated with increases in reported infant homicide rates. These findings suggest that the dramatic decline of accidental infant mortality and recent increased societal sensitivity to child abuse may be related to the increased infant homicide rates observed in the USA since 1980 rather than an actual increase in societal violence directed against infants. Ethical consequences of epidemiological classification, involving the principles of beneficence, non-maleficence and justice, are suggested by observed patterns in infant accidental deaths and homicides in the USA from 1940 to 2005.

  16. Behavior of road accidents: Structural time series approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Junus, Noor Wahida Md; Ismail, Mohd Tahir; Arsad, Zainudin

    2014-12-01

    Road accidents become a major issue in contributing to the increasing number of deaths. Few researchers suggest that road accidents occur due to road structure and road condition. The road structure and condition may differ according to the area and volume of traffic of the location. Therefore, this paper attempts to look up the behavior of the road accidents in four main regions in Peninsular Malaysia by employing a structural time series (STS) approach. STS offers the possibility of modelling the unobserved component such as trends and seasonal component and it is allowed to vary over time. The results found that the number of road accidents is described by a different model. Perhaps, the results imply that the government, especially a policy maker should consider to implement a different approach in ways to overcome the increasing number of road accidents.

  17. Contribution of internal exposures to the radiological consequences of the Chernobyl accident.

    PubMed

    Balonov, M I; Anspaugh, L R; Bouville, A; Likhtarev, I A

    2007-01-01

    The main pathways leading to exposure of members of the general public due to the Chernobyl accident were external exposure from radionuclides deposited on the ground and ingestion of contaminated terrestrial food products. The collective dose to the thyroid was nearly 1.5 million man Gy in Belarus, Russia and Ukraine with nearly half received by children and adolescents. The collective effective dose received in 1986-2005 by approximately five million residents living in the affected areas of the three countries was approximately 50,000 man Sv with approximately 40% from ingestion. That contribution might have been larger if countermeasures had not been applied. The main radionuclide contributing to both external and internal effective dose is 137Cs with smaller contributions of 134Cs and 90Sr and negligible contribution of transuranic elements. The major demonstrated radiation-caused health effect of the Chernobyl accident has been an elevated incidence of thyroid cancer in children.

  18. Sleep Apnea and Driving. Recommendations for Interpreting Spanish Regulations for Drivers.

    PubMed

    Terán-Santos, Joaquín; Egea Santaolalla, Carlos; Montserrat, Jose María; Masa Jiménez, Fernando; Librada Escribano, Maria Villar; Mirabet, Enrique; Valdés Rodríguez, Elena

    2017-06-01

    Road traffic accidents are one of the main causes of death worldwide and are clearly associated with sleepiness. Individuals with undiagnosed sleep apnea-hypopnea syndrome (SAHS) are among the population with a high risk of experiencing sleepiness at the wheel and, consequently, road traffic accidents. Treatment with continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) has been shown to reduce the risk of accidents among drivers with SAHS. For this reason, the European Union has included this disease in the psychological and physical criteria for obtaining or renewing a driving license. To comply with this European Directive, Spain has updated its driving laws accordingly. To facilitate the implementation of the new regulations, a group of experts from various medical societies and institutions has prepared these guidelines that include questionnaires to screen for SAHS, diagnostic and therapeutic criteria, and physician's report templates. Copyright © 2016 SEPAR. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  19. [Chronological assessment of the preventive measures taken in the field of road traffic accidents in France. Methodological problems and results. (author's transl)].

    PubMed

    Hatton, F; Bouvier, M H; Maujol, L

    1981-01-01

    Corresponding to a non-experimental approach and based upon the study of indices obtained from permanent statistics, this assessment presents methodological difficulties linked both: to the choice of permanant indicators and to the interpretation of their variations in a situation of observation. The results permit us to appraise the consequences of the global policy of prevention in the field of road traffic accidents in France during many consecutive years: - the decrease of mortality and morbidity demographic indices; - the strengthening of the regressive tendency of the risk indices linked to road traffic (number of dead and wounded in relation to the "km" covered, to the consumption of motor-fuel...). The agreement of the evolutive tendencies of these indicators lets us think that the campaign against traffic accidents has had the desired effects even if they are still incomplete.

  20. Comorbidity and radiation: methodological aspects of health assessment of persons exposed to the Chornobyl accident factors.

    PubMed

    Nosach, O V

    2013-01-01

    Comorbidity is one of the most challenging problems of a modern medicine. In a population exposed to the factors of the Chornobyl accident there is an obvious increase in the number of diseases occurring simultaneously against the background of rising prevalence of different classes of chronic medical nosology. The scientific data analysis are presented on the methodological approaches that can be used to create a specialized system for integrated assessment of the health of patients with comorbid disorders. Developing such a system it should be taken into account the trends of changes in the incidence, prevalence and structure of chronic disease, factors and regularities of comorbid disease in the cohorts of Chornobyl accident clean-up workers, evacuees and dwellers of contaminated territories. The system should provide a non-random selection of combinations (clusters) of the most common diseases with serious consequences for the survivors. Nosach O. V., 2013.

  1. Workplace safety in Bangladesh ready-made garment sector: 3 years after the Rana Plaza collapse.

    PubMed

    Barua, Uttama; Ansary, Mehedi Ahmed

    2017-12-01

    Workplace safety is one of the most important issues in industries worldwide, and is endangered by industrial accidents. Different industrial disasters have resulted in several initiatives worldwide to protect human life and reduce material damage, both nationally and internationally. In Bangladesh, the ready-made garment (RMG) industry is one of the most important export-oriented business sectors, which is facing challenges to ensure workplace safety. The Rana Plaza collapse in Bangladesh is the consequence of such non-compliance. The accident resulted in different local and global initiatives to address the challenges. This article reviews progress and achievement of the initiatives to reduce vulnerability in the Bangladesh RMG industry within 3 years after the deadly accident. In the long run, the challenge is to maintain momentum already created for achieving sustainability in the RMG sector in Bangladesh and maintaining compliance even after the end of support from external partners.

  2. NAPS as an Alertness Management Strategy

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rosekind, Mark R.; Smith, Roy M.; Miller, Donna L.; Co, Elizabeth L.; Gregory, Kevin B.; Gander, Philippa H.; Lebacqz, J. Victor

    2001-01-01

    Today, 24-hour operations are necessary to meet the demands of our society and the requirements of our industrialized global economy. These around-the-clock demands pose unique physiological challenges for the humans who remain central to safe and productive operations. Optimal alertness and performance are critical factors that are increasingly challenged by unusual, extended, or changing work/rest schedules. Technological advancements and automated systems can exacerbate the challenges faced by the human factor in these environments. Shift work, transportation demands, and continuous operations engender sleep loss and circadian disruption. Both of these physiological factors can lead to increased sleepiness, decreased performance, and a reduced margin of safety. These factors can increase vulnerability to incidents and accidents in operational settings. The consequences can have both societal effects (e.g., major destructive accidents such as Three Mile Island, Exxon Valdez, Bhopal) and personal effects (e.g., an accident driving home after a night shift).

  3. A comprehensive probabilistic analysis model of oil pipelines network based on Bayesian network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, C.; Qin, T. X.; Jiang, B.; Huang, C.

    2018-02-01

    Oil pipelines network is one of the most important facilities of energy transportation. But oil pipelines network accident may result in serious disasters. Some analysis models for these accidents have been established mainly based on three methods, including event-tree, accident simulation and Bayesian network. Among these methods, Bayesian network is suitable for probabilistic analysis. But not all the important influencing factors are considered and the deployment rule of the factors has not been established. This paper proposed a probabilistic analysis model of oil pipelines network based on Bayesian network. Most of the important influencing factors, including the key environment condition and emergency response are considered in this model. Moreover, the paper also introduces a deployment rule for these factors. The model can be used in probabilistic analysis and sensitive analysis of oil pipelines network accident.

  4. Simulation on Poisson and negative binomial models of count road accident modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sapuan, M. S.; Razali, A. M.; Zamzuri, Z. H.; Ibrahim, K.

    2016-11-01

    Accident count data have often been shown to have overdispersion. On the other hand, the data might contain zero count (excess zeros). The simulation study was conducted to create a scenarios which an accident happen in T-junction with the assumption the dependent variables of generated data follows certain distribution namely Poisson and negative binomial distribution with different sample size of n=30 to n=500. The study objective was accomplished by fitting Poisson regression, negative binomial regression and Hurdle negative binomial model to the simulated data. The model validation was compared and the simulation result shows for each different sample size, not all model fit the data nicely even though the data generated from its own distribution especially when the sample size is larger. Furthermore, the larger sample size indicates that more zeros accident count in the dataset.

  5. Systematic strategies for the third industrial accident prevention plan in Korea.

    PubMed

    Kang, Young-sig; Yang, Sung-hwan; Kim, Tae-gu; Kim, Day-sung

    2012-01-01

    To minimize industrial accidents, it's critical to evaluate a firm's priorities for prevention factors and strategies since such evaluation provides decisive information for preventing industrial accidents and maintaining safety management. Therefore, this paper proposes the evaluation of priorities through statistical testing of prevention factors with a cause analysis in a cause and effect model. A priority matrix criterion is proposed to apply the ranking and for the objectivity of questionnaire results. This paper used regression method (RA), exponential smoothing method (ESM), double exponential smoothing method (DESM), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and proposed analytical function method (PAFM) to analyze trends of accident data that will lead to an accurate prediction. This paper standardized the questionnaire results of workers and managers in manufacturing and construction companies with less than 300 employees, located in the central Korean metropolitan areas where fatal accidents have occurred. Finally, a strategy was provided to construct safety management for the third industrial accident prevention plan and a forecasting method for occupational accident rates and fatality rates for occupational accidents per 10,000 people.

  6. Man, road and vehicle: risk factors associated with the severity of traffic accidents.

    PubMed

    Almeida, Rosa Lívia Freitas de; Bezerra Filho, José Gomes; Braga, José Ueleres; Magalhães, Francismeire Brasileiro; Macedo, Marinila Calderaro Munguba; Silva, Kellyanne Abreu

    2013-08-01

    To describe the main characteristics of victims, roads and vehicles involved in traffic accidents and the risk factors involved in accidents resulting in death. METHODS A non-concurrent cohort study of traffic accidents in Fortaleza, CE, Northeastern Brazil, in the period from January 2004 to December 2008. Data from the Fortaleza Traffic Accidents Information System, the Mortality Information System, the Hospital Information System and the State Traffic Department Driving Licenses and Vehicle database. Deterministic and probabilistic relationship techniques were used to integrate the databases. First, descriptive analysis of data relating to people, roads, vehicles and weather was carried out. In the investigation of risk factors for death by traffic accident, generalized linear models were used. The fit of the model was verified by likelihood ratio and ROC analysis. RESULTS There were 118,830 accidents recorded in the period. The most common types of accidents were crashes/collisions (78.1%), running over pedestrians (11.9%), colliding with a fixed obstacle (3.9%), and with motorcycles (18.1%). Deaths occurred in 1.4% of accidents. The factors that were independently associated with death by traffic accident in the final model were bicycles (OR = 21.2, 95%CI 16.1;27.8), running over pedestrians OR = 5.9 (95%CI 3.7;9.2), collision with a fixed obstacle (OR = 5.7, 95%CI 3.1;10.5) and accidents involving motorcyclists (OR = 3.5, 95%CI 2.6;4.6). The main contributing factors were a single person being involved (OR = 6.6, 95%CI 4.1;10.73), presence of unskilled drivers (OR = 4.1, 95%CI 2.9;5.5) a single vehicle (OR = 3.9, 95%CI 2,3;6,4), male (OR = 2.5, 95%CI 1.9;3.3), traffic on roads under federal jurisdiction (OR = 2.4, 95%CI 1.8;3.7), early morning hours (OR = 2.4, 95%CI 1.8;3.0), and Sundays (OR = 1.7, 95%CI 1.3;2.2), adjusted according to the log-binomial model. CONCLUSIONS Activities promoting the prevention of traffic accidents should primarily focus on accidents involving two-wheeled vehicles that most often involves a single person, unskilled, male, at nighttime, on weekends and on roads where they travel at higher speeds.

  7. RAPID-N: Assessing and mapping the risk of natural-hazard impact at industrial installations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Girgin, Serkan; Krausmann, Elisabeth

    2015-04-01

    Natural hazard-triggered technological accidents (so-called Natech accidents) at hazardous installations can have major consequences due to the potential for release of hazardous materials, fires and explosions. Effective Natech risk reduction requires the identification of areas where this risk is high. However, recent studies have shown that there are hardly any methodologies and tools that would allow authorities to identify these areas. To work towards closing this gap, the European Commission's Joint Research Centre has developed the rapid Natech risk assessment and mapping framework RAPID-N. The tool, which is implemented in an online web-based environment, is unique in that it contains all functionalities required for running a full Natech risk analysis simulation (natural hazards severity estimation, equipment damage probability and severity calculation, modeling of the consequences of loss of containment scenarios) and for visualizing its results. The output of RAPID-N are risk summary reports and interactive risk maps which can be used for decision making. Currently, the tool focuses on Natech risk due to earthquakes at industrial installations. However, it will be extended to also analyse and map Natech risk due to floods in the near future. RAPID-N is available at http://rapidn.jrc.ec.europa.eu. This presentation will discuss the results of case-study calculations performed for selected flammable and toxic substances to test the capabilities of RAPID-N both for single- and multi-site earthquake Natech risk assessment. For this purpose, an Istanbul earthquake scenario provided by the Turkish government was used. The results of the exercise show that RAPID-N is a valuable decision-support tool that assesses the Natech risk and maps the consequence end-point distances. These end-point distances are currently defined by 7 kPa overpressure for Vapour Cloud Explosions, 2nd degree burns for pool fire (which is equivalent to a heat radiation of 5 kW/m2 for 40s), or the ERPG-2 concentration for atmospheric dispersion of toxic substances).

  8. Human Error: A Concept Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hansen, Frederick D.

    2007-01-01

    Human error is the subject of research in almost every industry and profession of our times. This term is part of our daily language and intuitively understood by most people however, it would be premature to assume that everyone's understanding of human error s the same. For example, human error is used to describe the outcome or consequence of human action, the causal factor of an accident, deliberate violations,a nd the actual action taken by a human being. As a result, researchers rarely agree on the either a specific definition or how to prevent human error. The purpose of this article is to explore the specific concept of human error using Concept Analysis as described by Walker and Avant (1995). The concept of human error is examined as currently used in the literature of a variety of industries and professions. Defining attributes and examples of model, borderline, and contrary cases are described. The antecedents and consequences of human error are also discussed and a definition of human error is offered.

  9. Review the number of accidents in Tehran over a two-year period and prediction of the number of events based on a time-series model

    PubMed Central

    Teymuri, Ghulam Heidar; Sadeghian, Marzieh; Kangavari, Mehdi; Asghari, Mehdi; Madrese, Elham; Abbasinia, Marzieh; Ahmadnezhad, Iman; Gholizadeh, Yavar

    2013-01-01

    Background: One of the significant dangers that threaten people’s lives is the increased risk of accidents. Annually, more than 1.3 million people die around the world as a result of accidents, and it has been estimated that approximately 300 deaths occur daily due to traffic accidents in the world with more than 50% of that number being people who were not even passengers in the cars. The aim of this study was to examine traffic accidents in Tehran and forecast the number of future accidents using a time-series model. Methods: The study was a cross-sectional study that was conducted in 2011. The sample population was all traffic accidents that caused death and physical injuries in Tehran in 2010 and 2011, as registered in the Tehran Emergency ward. The present study used Minitab 15 software to provide a description of accidents in Tehran for the specified time period as well as those that occurred during April 2012. Results: The results indicated that the average number of daily traffic accidents in Tehran in 2010 was 187 with a standard deviation of 83.6. In 2011, there was an average of 180 daily traffic accidents with a standard deviation of 39.5. One-way analysis of variance indicated that the average number of accidents in the city was different for different months of the year (P < 0.05). Most of the accidents occurred in March, July, August, and September. Thus, more accidents occurred in the summer than in the other seasons. The number of accidents was predicted based on an auto-regressive, moving average (ARMA) for April 2012. The number of accidents displayed a seasonal trend. The prediction of the number of accidents in the city during April of 2012 indicated that a total of 4,459 accidents would occur with mean of 149 accidents per day during these three months. Conclusion: The number of accidents in Tehran displayed a seasonal trend, and the number of accidents was different for different seasons of the year. PMID:26120405

  10. Ensemble Simulation of the Atmospheric Radionuclides Discharged by the Fukushima Nuclear Accident

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sekiyama, Thomas; Kajino, Mizuo; Kunii, Masaru

    2013-04-01

    Enormous amounts of radionuclides were discharged into the atmosphere by a nuclear accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant (FDNPP) after the earthquake and tsunami on 11 March 2011. The radionuclides were dispersed from the power plant and deposited mainly over eastern Japan and the North Pacific Ocean. A lot of numerical simulations of the radionuclide dispersion and deposition had been attempted repeatedly since the nuclear accident. However, none of them were able to perfectly simulate the distribution of dose rates observed after the accident over eastern Japan. This was partly due to the error of the wind vectors and precipitations used in the numerical simulations; unfortunately, their deterministic simulations could not deal with the probability distribution of the simulation results and errors. Therefore, an ensemble simulation of the atmospheric radionuclides was performed using the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) data assimilation system coupled with the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) non-hydrostatic mesoscale model (NHM); this mesoscale model has been used operationally for daily weather forecasts by JMA. Meteorological observations were provided to the EnKF data assimilation system from the JMA operational-weather-forecast dataset. Through this ensemble data assimilation, twenty members of the meteorological analysis over eastern Japan from 11 to 31 March 2011 were successfully obtained. Using these meteorological ensemble analysis members, the radionuclide behavior in the atmosphere such as advection, convection, diffusion, dry deposition, and wet deposition was simulated. This ensemble simulation provided the multiple results of the radionuclide dispersion and distribution. Because a large ensemble deviation indicates the low accuracy of the numerical simulation, the probabilistic information is obtainable from the ensemble simulation results. For example, the uncertainty of precipitation triggered the uncertainty of wet deposition; the uncertainty of wet deposition triggered the uncertainty of atmospheric radionuclide amounts. Then the remained radionuclides were transported downwind; consequently the uncertainty signal of the radionuclide amounts was propagated downwind. The signal propagation was seen in the ensemble simulation by the tracking of the large deviation areas of radionuclide concentration and deposition. These statistics are able to provide information useful for the probabilistic prediction of radionuclides.

  11. The Role of Spatial Disorientation in Fatal General Aviation Accidents

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Scheuring, RIchard

    2005-01-01

    In-flight Spatial Disorientation (SD) in pilots is a serious threat to aviation safety. Indeed, SD may play a much larger role in aviation accidents than the approximate 6-8% reported by the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) each year, because some accidents coded by the NTSB as aircraft control-not maintained (ACNM) may actually result from SD. The purpose of this study is to determine whether SD is underestimated as a cause of fatal general aviation (GA) accidents in the NTSB database. Fatal GA airplane accidents occurring between January 1995 and December 1999 were reviewed from the NTSB aviation accident database. Cases coded as ACNM or SD as the probable cause were selected for review by a panel of aerospace medicine specialists. Using a rating scale, each rater was instructed to determine if SD was the probable cause of the accident. Agreement between the raters and agreement between the raters and the NTSB were evaluated by Kappa statistics. The raters agreed that 11 out of 20 (55%) accidents coded by the NTSB as ACNM were probably caused by SD (p less than 0.05). Agreement between the raters and the NTSB did not reach significance (p greater than 0.05). The 95% C.I. for the sampling population estimated that between 33-77% of cases that the NTSB identified as ACNM could be identified by aerospace medicine experts as SD. Aerospace medicine specialists agreed that some cases coded by the NTSB as ACNM were probably caused by SD. Consequently, a larger number of accidents may be caused by the pilot succumbing to SD than indicated in the NTSB database. This new information should encourage regulating agencies to insure that pilots receive SD recognition training, enabling them to take appropriate corrective actions during flight. This could lead to new training standards, ultimately saving lives among GA airplane pilots.

  12. Lessons Learned Through the Follow-up of the Long-Term Effects of Over-Exposure to an Ir192 Industrial Radiography Source in Bangladesh

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Jalil, A.; Rabbani, G.; Hossain, M. K.

    2003-02-24

    An industrial radiographer was accidentally over-exposed while taking the radiograph of weld-joints of gas pipe-lines in 1985 in Bangladesh. Symptoms of high radiation exposure occurred immediately after the accident and skin erythema developed leading to progressive tissue deterioration. The consequences of this over-exposure is being followed up to assess the long-term effects of ionizing radiation on the victim. Progressive tissue deteriorations have already led to multiple surgeries and successive amputations of the finger-tips so far. Lessons learned from this accident are also reported in this paper.

  13. Severe Accident Sequence Analysis Program: Anticipated transient without scram simulations for Browns Ferry Nuclear Plant Unit 1

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Dallman, R J; Gottula, R C; Holcomb, E E

    1987-05-01

    An analysis of five anticipated transients without scram (ATWS) was conducted at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL). The five detailed deterministic simulations of postulated ATWS sequences were initiated from a main steamline isolation valve (MSIV) closure. The subject of the analysis was the Browns Ferry Nuclear Plant Unit 1, a boiling water reactor (BWR) of the BWR/4 product line with a Mark I containment. The simulations yielded insights to the possible consequences resulting from a MSIV closure ATWS. An evaluation of the effects of plant safety systems and operator actions on accident progression and mitigation is presented.

  14. A multi-agent safety response model in the construction industry.

    PubMed

    Meliá, José L

    2015-01-01

    The construction industry is one of the sectors with the highest accident rates and the most serious accidents. A multi-agent safety response approach allows a useful diagnostic tool in order to understand factors affecting risk and accidents. The special features of the construction sector can influence the relationships among safety responses along the model of safety influences. The purpose of this paper is to test a model explaining risk and work-related accidents in the construction industry as a result of the safety responses of the organization, the supervisors, the co-workers and the worker. 374 construction employees belonging to 64 small Spanish construction companies working for two main companies participated in the study. Safety responses were measured using a 45-item Likert-type questionnaire. The structure of the measure was analyzed using factor analysis and the model of effects was tested using a structural equation model. Factor analysis clearly identifies the multi-agent safety dimensions hypothesized. The proposed safety response model of work-related accidents, involving construction specific results, showed a good fit. The multi-agent safety response approach to safety climate is a useful framework for the assessment of organizational and behavioral risks in construction.

  15. Rough set approach for accident chains exploration.

    PubMed

    Wong, Jinn-Tsai; Chung, Yi-Shih

    2007-05-01

    This paper presents a novel non-parametric methodology--rough set theory--for accident occurrence exploration. The rough set theory allows researchers to analyze accidents in multiple dimensions and to model accident occurrence as factor chains. Factor chains are composed of driver characteristics, trip characteristics, driver behavior and environment factors that imply typical accident occurrence. A real-world database (2003 Taiwan single auto-vehicle accidents) is used as an example to demonstrate the proposed approach. The results show that although most accident patterns are unique, some accident patterns are significant and worth noting. Student drivers who are young and less experienced exhibit a relatively high possibility of being involved in off-road accidents on roads with a speed limit between 51 and 79 km/h under normal driving circumstances. Notably, for bump-into-facility accidents, wet surface is a distinctive environmental factor.

  16. Network information attacks on the control systems of power facilities belonging to the critical infrastructure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Loginov, E. L.; Raikov, A. N.

    2015-04-01

    The most large-scale accidents occurred as a consequence of network information attacks on the control systems of power facilities belonging to the United States' critical infrastructure are analyzed in the context of possibilities available in modern decision support systems. Trends in the development of technologies for inflicting damage to smart grids are formulated. A volume matrix of parameters characterizing attacks on facilities is constructed. A model describing the performance of a critical infrastructure's control system after an attack is developed. The recently adopted measures and legislation acts aimed at achieving more efficient protection of critical infrastructure are considered. Approaches to cognitive modeling and networked expertise of intricate situations for supporting the decision-making process, and to setting up a system of indicators for anticipatory monitoring of critical infrastructure are proposed.

  17. Hazard perception and the economic impact of internment on residential land values

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Merz, J.F.

    1983-04-01

    The potential for large scale natural and man-made hazards exists in the form of hurricanes, earthquakes, volcanoes, floods, dams, accidents involving poisonous, explosive or radioactive materials, and severe pollution or waste disposal mishaps. Regions prone to natural hazards and areas located proximally to technological hazards may be subject to economic losses from low probability-high consequence events. Economic costs may be incurred in: evacuation and relocation of inhabitants; personal, industrial, agricultural, and tax revenue losses; decontamination; property damage or loss of value; and temporary or prolonged internment of land. The value of land in an area subjected to a low probability-highmore » consequence event may decrease, reflecting, a fortiori, a reluctance to continue living in the area or to repopulate a region which had required internment. The future value of such land may be described as a function of location, time, interdiction period (if applicable), and variables reflecting the magnitude of the perceived hazard. This paper presents a study of these variables and proposes a model for land value estimation. As an example, the application of the model to the Love Canal area in Niagara Falls, New York is presented.« less

  18. Drinking Problems of Native American and White Youth.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Forslund, Morris A.

    1979-01-01

    Found that American Indian youths tend to experience more serious consequences of drinking than do White youths from the same area with regard to feeling high, getting drunk, passing out, suffering loss of memory, being stopped by police, having automobile accidents, and getting into trouble with parents. (Author/BEF)

  19. Chemical Safety Information, Site Security and Fuels Regulatory Relief Act: Public Distribution of Off-Site Consequence Analysis Information Fact Sheet

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Based on assessments of increased risk of terrorist/criminal activity, EPA and DOJ have issued a rule that allows public access to OCA information in ways that are designed to minimize likelihood of chemical accidents and public harm.

  20. 49 CFR 195.48 - Scope.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 3 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Scope. 195.48 Section 195.48 Transportation Other... Annual, Accident, and Safety-Related Condition Reporting § 195.48 Scope. This Subpart prescribes... report form PHMSA F 7000-1.1 associated with IM or high consequence areas. [76 FR 25588, May 5, 2011] ...

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