A discussion on the methodology for calculating radiological and toxicological consequences for the spent nuclear fuel project at the Hanford Site

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

RITTMANN, P.D.

1999-07-14

This report contains technical information used to determine accident consequences for the Spent Nuclear Fuel Project safety documents. It does not determine accident consequences or describe specific accident scenarios, but instead provides generic information.

Fukushima Daiichi Unit 1 Accident Progression Uncertainty Analysis and Implications for Decommissioning of Fukushima Reactors - Volume I.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gauntt, Randall O.; Mattie, Patrick D.

Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) has conducted an uncertainty analysis (UA) on the Fukushima Daiichi unit (1F1) accident progression with the MELCOR code. The model used was developed for a previous accident reconstruction investigation jointly sponsored by the US Department of Energy (DOE) and Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). That study focused on reconstructing the accident progressions, as postulated by the limited plant data. This work was focused evaluation of uncertainty in core damage progression behavior and its effect on key figures-of-merit (e.g., hydrogen production, reactor damage state, fraction of intact fuel, vessel lower head failure). The primary intent of this studymore » was to characterize the range of predicted damage states in the 1F1 reactor considering state of knowledge uncertainties associated with MELCOR modeling of core damage progression and to generate information that may be useful in informing the decommissioning activities that will be employed to defuel the damaged reactors at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant. Additionally, core damage progression variability inherent in MELCOR modeling numerics is investigated.« less

An Evidential Reasoning-Based CREAM to Human Reliability Analysis in Maritime Accident Process.

PubMed

Wu, Bing; Yan, Xinping; Wang, Yang; Soares, C Guedes

2017-10-01

This article proposes a modified cognitive reliability and error analysis method (CREAM) for estimating the human error probability in the maritime accident process on the basis of an evidential reasoning approach. This modified CREAM is developed to precisely quantify the linguistic variables of the common performance conditions and to overcome the problem of ignoring the uncertainty caused by incomplete information in the existing CREAM models. Moreover, this article views maritime accident development from the sequential perspective, where a scenario- and barrier-based framework is proposed to describe the maritime accident process. This evidential reasoning-based CREAM approach together with the proposed accident development framework are applied to human reliability analysis of a ship capsizing accident. It will facilitate subjective human reliability analysis in different engineering systems where uncertainty exists in practice. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Evaluation of severe accident risks: Quantification of major input parameters: MAACS (MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System) input

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sprung, J.L.; Jow, H-N; Rollstin, J.A.

1990-12-01

Estimation of offsite accident consequences is the customary final step in a probabilistic assessment of the risks of severe nuclear reactor accidents. Recently, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission reassessed the risks of severe accidents at five US power reactors (NUREG-1150). Offsite accident consequences for NUREG-1150 source terms were estimated using the MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System (MACCS). Before these calculations were performed, most MACCS input parameters were reviewed, and for each parameter reviewed, a best-estimate value was recommended. This report presents the results of these reviews. Specifically, recommended values and the basis for their selection are presented for MACCS atmospheric andmore » biospheric transport, emergency response, food pathway, and economic input parameters. Dose conversion factors and health effect parameters are not reviewed in this report. 134 refs., 15 figs., 110 tabs.« less

Uncertainty analysis of accident notification time and emergency medical service response time in work zone traffic accidents.

PubMed

Meng, Qiang; Weng, Jinxian

2013-01-01

Taking into account the uncertainty caused by exogenous factors, the accident notification time (ANT) and emergency medical service (EMS) response time were modeled as 2 random variables following the lognormal distribution. Their mean values and standard deviations were respectively formulated as the functions of environmental variables including crash time, road type, weekend, holiday, light condition, weather, and work zone type. Work zone traffic accident data from the Fatality Analysis Report System between 2002 and 2009 were utilized to determine the distributions of the ANT and the EMS arrival time in the United States. A mixed logistic regression model, taking into account the uncertainty associated with the ANT and the EMS response time, was developed to estimate the risk of death. The results showed that the uncertainty of the ANT was primarily influenced by crash time and road type, whereas the uncertainty of EMS response time is greatly affected by road type, weather, and light conditions. In addition, work zone accidents occurring during a holiday and in poor light conditions were found to be statistically associated with a longer mean ANT and longer EMS response time. The results also show that shortening the ANT was a more effective approach in reducing the risk of death than the EMS response time in work zones. To shorten the ANT and the EMS response time, work zone activities are suggested to be undertaken during non-holidays, during the daytime, and in good weather and light conditions.

A Flexible Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling Technique for Risk Analysis of Major Accidents.

PubMed

Yu, Hongyang; Khan, Faisal; Veitch, Brian

2017-09-01

Safety analysis of rare events with potentially catastrophic consequences is challenged by data scarcity and uncertainty. Traditional causation-based approaches, such as fault tree and event tree (used to model rare event), suffer from a number of weaknesses. These include the static structure of the event causation, lack of event occurrence data, and need for reliable prior information. In this study, a new hierarchical Bayesian modeling based technique is proposed to overcome these drawbacks. The proposed technique can be used as a flexible technique for risk analysis of major accidents. It enables both forward and backward analysis in quantitative reasoning and the treatment of interdependence among the model parameters. Source-to-source variability in data sources is also taken into account through a robust probabilistic safety analysis. The applicability of the proposed technique has been demonstrated through a case study in marine and offshore industry. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Impacts of nuclear plant shutdown on coal-fired power generation and infant health in the Tennessee Valley in the 1980s

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Severnini, Edson

2017-04-01

The Fukushima nuclear accident in March 2011 generated deep public anxiety and uncertainty about the future of nuclear energy. However, differently to fossil fuel plants, nuclear plants produce virtually no greenhouse gas emissions or air pollutants during power generation. Here we show the effect on air pollution and infant health in the context of the temporary closure of nuclear plants by the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) in the 1980s. After the Three Mile Island accident in 1979, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission intensified inspections throughout the nation, leading to the shutdown of two large nuclear power plants in the TVA area. In response to that shutdown, electricity generation shifted one to one to coal-fired power plants within TVA, increasing particle pollution in counties where they were located. Consequently, infant health may have deteriorated in the most affected places, indicating deleterious effects to public health.

Methods for nuclear air-cleaning-system accident-consequence assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Andrae, R.W.; Bolstad, J.W.; Gregory, W.S.

1982-01-01

This paper describes a multilaboratory research program that is directed toward addressing many questions that analysts face when performing air cleaning accident consequence assessments. The program involves developing analytical tools and supportive experimental data that will be useful in making more realistic assessments of accident source terms within and up to the atmospheric boundaries of nuclear fuel cycle facilities. The types of accidents considered in this study includes fires, explosions, spills, tornadoes, criticalities, and equipment failures. The main focus of the program is developing an accident analysis handbook (AAH). We will describe the contents of the AAH, which include descriptionsmore » of selected nuclear fuel cycle facilities, process unit operations, source-term development, and accident consequence analyses. Three computer codes designed to predict gas and material propagation through facility air cleaning systems are described. These computer codes address accidents involving fires (FIRAC), explosions (EXPAC), and tornadoes (TORAC). The handbook relies on many illustrative examples to show the analyst how to approach accident consequence assessments. We will use the FIRAC code and a hypothetical fire scenario to illustrate the accident analysis capability.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

DeVine Jr, J.C.

The Three Mile Island Unit 2 (TMI-2) accident in March 1979 had a profound effect on the course of commercial nuclear generation in the United States and around the world. And while the central elements of the accident were matters of nuclear engineering, design and operations, its consequences were compounded, and in some respects superseded, by extraordinarily ineffective communications by all parties at all levels. Communications failures during the accident and its aftermath caused misunderstanding, distrust, and incorrect emergency response - and seeded or reinforced public opposition to nuclear power that persists to this day. There are communications lessons frommore » TMI that have not yet been fully learned, and some that once were learned but are now gradually being forgotten. The more glaring TMI communications problems were in the arena of external interactions and communications among the plant owner, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), the media, and the public. Confusing, fragmented, and contradictory public statements early in the accident, regardless of cause, undermined all possibility for reasonable discourse thereafter. And because the TMI accident was playing out on a world stage, the breakdown in public trust had long term and widespread implications. At the plant site, both TMI-2 cleanup and restart of the undamaged TMI-1 unit met with years of public and political criticism, and attendant regulatory pressure. Across the nation, public trust in nuclear power and those who operate it plummeted, unquestionably contributing to the 25+ year hiatus in new plant orders. There were other, less visible but equally important, consequences of ineffective communications at TMI. The unplanned 'precautionary' evacuation urged by the governor two days after the accident - a life changing, traumatic event for thousands of residents - was prompted primarily by misunderstandings and miscommunications regarding the condition of the plant. And today, nearly 30 years after the event, many in our nuclear industry have insufficient knowledge or regard for the underlying nuclear safety vulnerabilities revealed by the accident, in part because these have not been well explained. From this single, compelling experience, many lessons can be drawn. Some of these were recognized early and taken to heart by those who own and operate nuclear plants - but over time, respect for their importance has given way somewhat to the seemingly more urgent practicalities of plant cost, schedule and production goals. In other cases, the lessons have remained largely obscure. This paper will describe in greater detail the communications aspects of the TMI accident, lessons that can be drawn from them, and their implications on current and future nuclear facility operation. The paper reflects the author's personal, direct experience as part of the accident response team and subsequent cleanup operations at TMI. In summary: The Three Mile Accident was the most severe nuclear accident in U.S. history. It also is perhaps the most studied industrial accident of any kind in U.S. history. Exhaustive examinations of the public health consequences of the accident show convincingly that the effects of radioactivity releases, if any, were imperceptibly low. It is generally agreed, however, that there have been perceptible health consequences from the TMI-2 accident - those linked to stress. Stress to members of the public, particularly those living near the plant, was unquestionably high. And for some the combination of rumor, confusion, contradictory reports and uncertainty, all leading to an evacuation recommendation from the governor, took a toll. It could be argued that the ineffective internal and external communications during the course of the event were as influential to the outcome as the equipment and operational breakdowns that are now so well understood. And for that reason alone, this accident points out that communications capabilities - staffing, systems, facilities, training - can be as important to protection of the public, the plant and the environment as are the plant material and technical issues that receive constant attention. (authors)« less

78 FR 6145 - Virgil C. Summer Nuclear Station, Units 2 and 3; Application and Amendment to Facility Combined...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-01-29

... increase in the probability or consequences of an accident previously evaluated; or (2) create the possibility of a new or different kind of accident from any accident previously evaluated; or (3) involve a... proposed amendment involve a significant increase in the probability or consequences of an accident...

Short-Term Medical Consequences of the Chernobyl Nuclear Accident: Lessons for the Future

PubMed Central

Gale, Robert Peter

1988-01-01

The author of this article discusses the world's most serious nuclear accident to date: the Chernobyl nuclear accident of April 1986. His major focus is on the short-term medical consequences of the accident, including reduction of exposure to persons at risk, evaluation of persons potentially affected, dosimetry, and specific medical interventions. PMID:21253129

US Efforts in Support of Examinations at Fukushima Daiichi – 2016 Evaluations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Amway, P.; Andrews, N.; Bixby, Willis

Although it is clear that the accident signatures from each unit at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station (NPS) [Daiichi] differ, much is not known about the end-state of core materials within these units. Some of this uncertainty can be attributed to a lack of information related to cooling system operation and cooling water injection. There is also uncertainty in our understanding of phenomena affecting: a) in-vessel core damage progression during severe accidents in boiling water reactors (BWRs), and b) accident progression after vessel failure (ex-vessel progression) for BWRs and Pressurized Water Reactors (PWRs). These uncertainties arise due to limitedmore » full scale prototypic data. Similar to what occurred after the accident at Three Mile Island Unit 2, these Daiichi units offer the international community a means to reduce such uncertainties by obtaining prototypic data from multiple full-scale BWR severe accidents. Information obtained from Daiichi is required to inform Decontamination and Decommissioning activities, improving the ability of the Tokyo Electric Power Company Holdings (TEPCO) to characterize potential hazards and to ensure the safety of workers involved with cleanup activities. This document reports recent results from the US Forensics Effort to use information obtained by TEPCO to enhance the safety of existing and future nuclear power plant designs. This Forensics Effort, which is sponsored by the Reactor Safety Technologies Pathway of the Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy Light Water Reactor (LWR) Sustainability Program, consists of a group of US experts in LWR safety and plant operations that have identified examination needs and are evaluating TEPCO information from Daiichi that address these needs. Examples presented in this report demonstrate that significant safety insights are being obtained in the areas of component performance, fission product release and transport, debris end-state location, and combustible gas generation and transport. In addition to reducing uncertainties related to severe accident modeling progression, these insights are being used to update guidance for severe accident prevention, mitigation, and emergency planning. Furthermore, reduced uncertainties in modeling the events at Daiichi will improve the realism of reactor safety evaluations and inform future D&D activities by improving the capability for characterizing potential hazards to workers involved with cleanup activities.« less

Uncertainty quantification and reliability assessment in operational oil spill forecast modeling system.

PubMed

Hou, Xianlong; Hodges, Ben R; Feng, Dongyu; Liu, Qixiao

2017-03-15

As oil transport increasing in the Texas bays, greater risks of ship collisions will become a challenge, yielding oil spill accidents as a consequence. To minimize the ecological damage and optimize rapid response, emergency managers need to be informed with how fast and where oil will spread as soon as possible after a spill. The state-of-the-art operational oil spill forecast modeling system improves the oil spill response into a new stage. However uncertainty due to predicted data inputs often elicits compromise on the reliability of the forecast result, leading to misdirection in contingency planning. Thus understanding the forecast uncertainty and reliability become significant. In this paper, Monte Carlo simulation is implemented to provide parameters to generate forecast probability maps. The oil spill forecast uncertainty is thus quantified by comparing the forecast probability map and the associated hindcast simulation. A HyosPy-based simple statistic model is developed to assess the reliability of an oil spill forecast in term of belief degree. The technologies developed in this study create a prototype for uncertainty and reliability analysis in numerical oil spill forecast modeling system, providing emergency managers to improve the capability of real time operational oil spill response and impact assessment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Aerosol Sample Inhomogeneity with Debris from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Accident

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gomez, Reynaido; Biegalski, Steven R.; Woods, Vincent T.

2014-09-01

Radionuclide aerosol sampling is a vital component in the detection of nuclear explosions, nuclear accidents, and other radiation releases. This was proven by the detection and tracking of emissions from the Fukushima Daiichi incident across the globe by IMS stations. Two separate aerosol samplers were operated in Richland, WA following the event and debris from the accident were measured at levels well above detection limits. While the atmospheric activity concentration of radionuclides generally compared well between the two stations, they did not agree within uncertainties. This paper includes a detailed study of the aerosol sample homogeneity of 134Cs and 137Cs,more » then relates it to the overall uncertainty of the original measurement. Our results show that sample inhomogeneity adds an additional 5–10% uncertainty to each aerosol measurement and that this uncertainty is in the same range as the discrepancies between the two aerosol sample measurements from Richland, WA.« less

Mathematical modeling of a survey-meter used to measure radioactivity in human thyroids: Monte Carlo calculations of the device response and uncertainties

PubMed Central

Khrutchinsky, Arkady; Drozdovitch, Vladimir; Kutsen, Semion; Minenko, Victor; Khrouch, Valeri; Luckyanov, Nickolas; Voillequé, Paul; Bouville, André

2012-01-01

This paper presents results of Monte Carlo modeling of the SRP-68-01 survey meter used to measure exposure rates near the thyroid glands of persons exposed to radioactivity following the Chernobyl accident. This device was not designed to measure radioactivity in humans. To estimate the uncertainty associated with the measurement results, a mathematical model of the SRP-68-01 survey meter was developed and verified. A Monte Carlo method of numerical simulation of radiation transport has been used to calculate the calibration factor for the device and evaluate its uncertainty. The SRP-68-01 survey meter scale coefficient, an important characteristic of the device, was also estimated in this study. The calibration factors of the survey meter were calculated for 131I, 132I, 133I, and 135I content in the thyroid gland for six age groups of population: newborns; children aged 1 yr, 5 yr, 10 yr, 15 yr; and adults. A realistic scenario of direct thyroid measurements with an “extended” neck was used to calculate the calibration factors for newborns and one-year-olds. Uncertainties in the device calibration factors due to variability of the device scale coefficient, variability in thyroid mass and statistical uncertainty of Monte Carlo method were evaluated. Relative uncertainties in the calibration factor estimates were found to be from 0.06 for children aged 1 yr to 0.1 for 10-yr and 15-yr children. The positioning errors of the detector during measurements deviate mainly in one direction from the estimated calibration factors. Deviations of the device position from the proper geometry of measurements were found to lead to overestimation of the calibration factor by up to 24 percent for adults and up to 60 percent for 1-yr children. The results of this study improve the estimates of 131I thyroidal content and, consequently, thyroid dose estimates that are derived from direct thyroid measurements performed in Belarus shortly after the Chernobyl accident. PMID:22245289

[The Fukushima nuclear accident: consequences for Japan and for us].

PubMed

Grosche, B

2013-04-01

The Fukushima accident was the consequence of a preceding 2-fold natural catastrophe: the earth quake of 11 March 2011 and the subsequent tsunami. Due to favourable winds and to evacuation measures the radiation exposure to the general population in Japan as a whole and with some exceptions in the region outside the evacuation zone, too, was low. In this article the attempt is made to give an estimate of health consequences to the public. This is based upon WHO's dose estimates, knowledge of the consequences of the Chernobyl accident, of the atmospheric nuclear bomb testing in Kazakhstan and on the risk of childhood leukaemia after low dose radiation exposure. For Germany, there was no radiation threat due to the accident. Nonetheless, the events in Japan made clear that the rules and standards that were developed for the case of a reactor accident need to be revised. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

10 CFR 50.92 - Issuance of amendment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... consequences (such as one that permits a significant increase in the amount of effluents or radiation emitted... significant increase in the probability or consequences of an accident previously evaluated; or (2) Create the possibility of a new or different kind of accident from any accident previously evaluated; or (3) Involve a...

10 CFR 50.92 - Issuance of amendment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... consequences (such as one that permits a significant increase in the amount of effluents or radiation emitted... significant increase in the probability or consequences of an accident previously evaluated; or (2) Create the possibility of a new or different kind of accident from any accident previously evaluated; or (3) Involve a...

10 CFR 50.92 - Issuance of amendment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... consequences (such as one that permits a significant increase in the amount of effluents or radiation emitted... significant increase in the probability or consequences of an accident previously evaluated; or (2) Create the possibility of a new or different kind of accident from any accident previously evaluated; or (3) Involve a...

10 CFR 50.92 - Issuance of amendment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... consequences (such as one that permits a significant increase in the amount of effluents or radiation emitted... significant increase in the probability or consequences of an accident previously evaluated; or (2) Create the possibility of a new or different kind of accident from any accident previously evaluated; or (3) Involve a...

10 CFR 50.92 - Issuance of amendment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... consequences (such as one that permits a significant increase in the amount of effluents or radiation emitted... significant increase in the probability or consequences of an accident previously evaluated; or (2) Create the possibility of a new or different kind of accident from any accident previously evaluated; or (3) Involve a...

Total costs of injury from accidents in the home and during education, sports and leisure activities: estimates for Norway with assessment of uncertainty.

PubMed

Veisten, Knut; Nossum, Ase; Akhtar, Juned

2009-07-01

Injury accidents occurring in the home, during educational, sports or leisure activities were estimated from samples of hospital data, combined with fatality data from vital statistics. Uncertainty of estimated figures was assessed in simulation-based analysis. Total economic costs to society from injuries and fatalities due to such accidents were estimated at approximately NOK 150 billion per year. The estimated costs reveal the scale of the public health problem and lead to arguments for the establishment of a proper injury register for the identification of preventive measures to reduce the costs to society.

Regulatory Technology Development Plan - Sodium Fast Reactor. Mechanistic Source Term - Metal Fuel Radionuclide Release

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Grabaskas, David; Bucknor, Matthew; Jerden, James

2016-02-01

The development of an accurate and defensible mechanistic source term will be vital for the future licensing efforts of metal fuel, pool-type sodium fast reactors. To assist in the creation of a comprehensive mechanistic source term, the current effort sought to estimate the release fraction of radionuclides from metal fuel pins to the primary sodium coolant during fuel pin failures at a variety of temperature conditions. These release estimates were based on the findings of an extensive literature search, which reviewed past experimentation and reactor fuel damage accidents. Data sources for each radionuclide of interest were reviewed to establish releasemore » fractions, along with possible release dependencies, and the corresponding uncertainty levels. Although the current knowledge base is substantial, and radionuclide release fractions were established for the elements deemed important for the determination of offsite consequences following a reactor accident, gaps were found pertaining to several radionuclides. First, there is uncertainty regarding the transport behavior of several radionuclides (iodine, barium, strontium, tellurium, and europium) during metal fuel irradiation to high burnup levels. The migration of these radionuclides within the fuel matrix and bond sodium region can greatly affect their release during pin failure incidents. Post-irradiation examination of existing high burnup metal fuel can likely resolve this knowledge gap. Second, data regarding the radionuclide release from molten high burnup metal fuel in sodium is sparse, which makes the assessment of radionuclide release from fuel melting accidents at high fuel burnup levels difficult. This gap could be addressed through fuel melting experimentation with samples from the existing high burnup metal fuel inventory.« less

Statistical aspects of carbon fiber risk assessment modeling. [fire accidents involving aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gross, D.; Miller, D. R.; Soland, R. M.

1980-01-01

The probabilistic and statistical aspects of the carbon fiber risk assessment modeling of fire accidents involving commercial aircraft are examined. Three major sources of uncertainty in the modeling effort are identified. These are: (1) imprecise knowledge in establishing the model; (2) parameter estimation; and (3)Monte Carlo sampling error. All three sources of uncertainty are treated and statistical procedures are utilized and/or developed to control them wherever possible.

Risk analysis of urban gas pipeline network based on improved bow-tie model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hao, M. J.; You, Q. J.; Yue, Z.

2017-11-01

Gas pipeline network is a major hazard source in urban areas. In the event of an accident, there could be grave consequences. In order to understand more clearly the causes and consequences of gas pipeline network accidents, and to develop prevention and mitigation measures, the author puts forward the application of improved bow-tie model to analyze risks of urban gas pipeline network. The improved bow-tie model analyzes accident causes from four aspects: human, materials, environment and management; it also analyzes the consequences from four aspects: casualty, property loss, environment and society. Then it quantifies the causes and consequences. Risk identification, risk analysis, risk assessment, risk control, and risk management will be clearly shown in the model figures. Then it can suggest prevention and mitigation measures accordingly to help reduce accident rate of gas pipeline network. The results show that the whole process of an accident can be visually investigated using the bow-tie model. It can also provide reasons for and predict consequences of an unfortunate event. It is of great significance in order to analyze leakage failure of gas pipeline network.

The Fukushima radiation accident: consequences for radiation accident medical management.

PubMed

Meineke, Viktor; Dörr, Harald

2012-08-01

The March 2011 radiation accident in Fukushima, Japan, is a textbook example of a radiation accident of global significance. In view of the global dimensions of the accident, it is important to consider the lessons learned. In this context, emphasis must be placed on consequences for planning appropriate medical management for radiation accidents including, for example, estimates of necessary human and material resources. The specific characteristics of the radiation accident in Fukushima are thematically divided into five groups: the exceptional environmental influences on the Fukushima radiation accident, particular circumstances of the accident, differences in risk perception, changed psychosocial factors in the age of the Internet and globalization, and the ignorance of the effects of ionizing radiation both among the general public and health care professionals. Conclusions like the need for reviewing international communication, interfacing, and interface definitions will be drawn from the Fukushima radiation accident.

Integrating economy, ecology and uncertainty in an oil-spill DSS: The Prestige accident in Spain, 2002

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wirtz, Kai W.; Liu, Xin

2006-12-01

Major accidental oil spills still affect sensitive marine areas and shorelines around the world, constituting a challenge for operational as well as strategic contingency management. As a rationale basis for addressing both issues we here propose a Decision Support System (DSS) consisting of a combination of modelling and evaluation methods which in particular assesses various impacts on habitats and local economies. By integrating the state-of-the-art oil spill contingency simulation system OSCAR with wind and current forecasts, environmental GIS data and multi-criteria analysis techniques, the DSS is able to rank different response actions to a chemical or oil spill. In this study, the usefulness of the approach is tested by hindcasting the Prestige accident off the coast of Spain in 2002. In particular, the short- to mid-term economic and ecological consequences of different mitigation measures are estimated. We identified clearly one worst option matching the actual decision taken by the responsible parties and one or two almost equally well performing routes. Two procedures of including uncertainty at various stages of the DSS are tested. The first method averages ensembles of outcomes between each modelling/evaluation stage, while the second one preserves the entire degree of freedom till the final ranking procedure. Results in the Prestige case turned out to be rather insensitive against both ways to account for uncertainties. The robustness as well as clarity of the DSS has the potential to enhance the efficiency of decision making even in politically sensitive situations. Limitations as well as ongoing improvements of the system are highlighted, in particular emphasizing linkages to environmental economics.

Predicting Consequences of Technological Disasters from Natural Hazard Events: Challenges and Opportunities Associated with Industrial Accident Data Sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wood, M.

2009-04-01

The increased focus on the possibility of technological accidents caused by natural events (Natech) is foreseen to continue for years to come. In this case, experts in prevention, mitigation and preparation activities associated with natural events will increasingly need to borrow data and expertise traditionally associated with the technological fields to carry out the work. An important question is how useful is the data for understanding consequences from such natech events. Data and case studies provided on major industrial accidents tend to focus on lessons learned for re-engineering the process. While consequence data are reported at least nominally in most reports, their precision, quality and completeness is often lacking. Consequences that are often or sometimes available but not provided can include severity and type of injuries, distance of victims from the source, exposure measurements, volume of the release, population in potentially affected zones, and weather conditions. Yet these are precisely the type of data that will aid natural hazard experts in land-use planning and emergency response activities when a Natech event may be foreseen. This work discusses the results of a study of consequence data from accidents involving toxic releases reported in the EU's MARS accident database. The study analysed the precision, quality and completeness of three categories of consequence data reported: the description of health effects, consequence assessment and chemical risk assessment factors, and emergency response information. This work reports on the findings from this study and discusses how natural hazards experts might interact with industrial accident experts to promote more consistent and accurate reporting of the data that will be useful in consequence-based activities.

What Risk Assessments of Genetically Modified Organisms Can Learn from Institutional Analyses of Public Health Risks

PubMed Central

Rajan, S. Ravi; Letourneau, Deborah K.

2012-01-01

The risks of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) are evaluated traditionally by combining hazard identification and exposure estimates to provide decision support for regulatory agencies. We question the utility of the classical risk paradigm and discuss its evolution in GMO risk assessment. First, we consider the problem of uncertainty, by comparing risk assessment for environmental toxins in the public health domain with genetically modified organisms in the environment; we use the specific comparison of an insecticide to a transgenic, insecticidal food crop. Next, we examine normal accident theory (NAT) as a heuristic to consider runaway effects of GMOs, such as negative community level consequences of gene flow from transgenic, insecticidal crops. These examples illustrate how risk assessments are made more complex and contentious by both their inherent uncertainty and the inevitability of failure beyond expectation in complex systems. We emphasize the value of conducting decision-support research, embracing uncertainty, increasing transparency, and building interdisciplinary institutions that can address the complex interactions between ecosystems and society. In particular, we argue against black boxing risk analysis, and for a program to educate policy makers about uncertainty and complexity, so that eventually, decision making is not the burden that falls upon scientists but is assumed by the public at large. PMID:23193357

What risk assessments of genetically modified organisms can learn from institutional analyses of public health risks.

PubMed

Rajan, S Ravi; Letourneau, Deborah K

2012-01-01

The risks of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) are evaluated traditionally by combining hazard identification and exposure estimates to provide decision support for regulatory agencies. We question the utility of the classical risk paradigm and discuss its evolution in GMO risk assessment. First, we consider the problem of uncertainty, by comparing risk assessment for environmental toxins in the public health domain with genetically modified organisms in the environment; we use the specific comparison of an insecticide to a transgenic, insecticidal food crop. Next, we examine normal accident theory (NAT) as a heuristic to consider runaway effects of GMOs, such as negative community level consequences of gene flow from transgenic, insecticidal crops. These examples illustrate how risk assessments are made more complex and contentious by both their inherent uncertainty and the inevitability of failure beyond expectation in complex systems. We emphasize the value of conducting decision-support research, embracing uncertainty, increasing transparency, and building interdisciplinary institutions that can address the complex interactions between ecosystems and society. In particular, we argue against black boxing risk analysis, and for a program to educate policy makers about uncertainty and complexity, so that eventually, decision making is not the burden that falls upon scientists but is assumed by the public at large.

Re-assessment of road accident data-analysis policy : applying theory from involuntary, high-consequence, low-probability events like nuclear power plant meltdowns to voluntary, low-consequence, high-probability events like traffic accidents

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2002-02-01

This report examines the literature on involuntary, high-consequence, low-probability (IHL) events like nuclear power plant meltdowns to determine what can be applied to the problem of voluntary, low-consequence high-probability (VLH) events like tra...

Use of questionnaires and an expert panel to judge the environmental consequences of chemical spills for the development of an environment-accident index.

PubMed

Andersson, Asa Scott; Stjernström, Olof; Fängmark, Ingrid

2005-05-01

Assessing the environmental consequences of a chemical accident is a complex task. To date, the methods used to evaluate the environmental effects of an acute release of a chemical have often been based on measurements of chemical and physical variables deemed to be important, such as the concentration of the chemical. However, a broader strategy is needed to predict the environmental consequences of potential accidents during the planning process. An Environment-Accident Index (EAI), a simple tool based on such a strategy, has been developed to facilitate the consideration of a multitude of influential variables. The objectives of this study were to evaluate whether questionnaire-based expert panel's judgements could provide useful data on the environmental consequences of chemical spills, and an effective basis for further development of the EAI. As expected, the judgements did not agree perfectly, but they do give rough indications of the environmental effects, and highlight consistent trends that should be useful inputs for planning, prevention and decontamination processes. The different accidents were also judged to have caused everything from minor to very major effects in the environment, implying that a wide range of accident scenarios were represented in the material and covered by the EAI. Therefore, questionnaires and expert panel judgements can be used to collect useful data for estimating the likely environmental consequences of chemical accidents and for further development of the EAI.

Retrospective dosimetry of Iodine-131 exposures using Iodine-129 and Caesium-137 inventories in soils--A critical evaluation of the consequences of the Chernobyl accident in parts of Northern Ukraine.

PubMed

Michel, R; Daraoui, A; Gorny, M; Jakob, D; Sachse, R; Romantschuk, L D; Alfimov, V; Synal, H-A

2015-12-01

The radiation exposure of thyroid glands due to (131)I as a consequence of the Chernobyl accident was investigated retrospectively based on (129)I and (137)Cs inventories in soils in Northern Ukraine. To this end, soil samples from 60 settlements were investigated for (129)I, (127)I, and (137)Cs by AMS, ICP-MS and gamma-spectrometry, respectively. Sampling was performed between 2004 und 2007. In those parts of Northern Ukraine investigated here the (129)I and (137)Cs inventories are well correlated, the variability of the individual (129)I/(137)Cs ratios being, however, high. Both the (129)I and (137)Cs inventories in the individual 5 samples for each settlement allowed estimating the uncertainties of the inventories due to the variability of the radionuclide deposition and consequently of the retrospective dosimetry. Thyroid equivalent doses were calculated from the (129)I and the (137)Cs inventories using aggregated dose coefficients for 5-year old and 10-year-old children as well as for adults. The highest thyroid equivalent doses (calculated from (129)I inventories) were calculated for Wladimirowka with 30 Gy for 5-years-old children and 7 Gy for adults. In 35 settlements of contamination zone II the geometric mean of the thyroid equivalent doses was 2.0 Gy for 5-years-old children with a geometric standard deviation (GSD) of 3.0. For adults the geometric mean was 0.47 Gy also with a GSD of 3.0. In more than 25 settlements of contamination zone III the geometric means were 0.82 Gy for 5-years old children with a GSD of 1.8 and 0.21 Gy for adults (GSD 1.8). For 45 settlements, the results of the retrospective dosimetry could be compared with thyroid equivalent doses calculated using time-integrated (131)I activities of thyroids which were measured in 1986. Thus, a critical evaluation of the results was possible which demonstrated the general feasibility of the method, but also the associated uncertainties and limitations. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Final safety analysis report for the Galileo mission: Volume 3 (Book 2), Nuclear risk analysis document: Appendices: Revision 1

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1989-01-25

It is the purpose of the NRAD to provide an analysis of the range of potential consequences of accidents which have been identified that are associated with the launching and deployment of the Galileo mission spacecraft. The specific consequences analyzed are those associated with the possible release of radioactive material (fuel) of the Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generators (RTGs). They are in terms of radiation doses to people and areas of deposition of radioactive material. These consequence analyses can be used in several ways. One way is to identify the potential range of consequences which might have to be dealt with ifmore » there were to be an accident with a release of fuel, so as to assure that, given such an accident, the health and safety of the public will be reasonably protected. Another use of the information, in conjunction with accident and release probabilities, is to estimate the risks associated with the mission. That is, most space launches occur without incident. Given an accident, the most probable result relative to the RTGs is complete containment of the radioactive material. Only a small fraction of accidents might result in a release of fuel and subsequent radiological consequences. The combination of probability with consequence is risk, which can be compared to other human and societal risks to assure that no undue risks are implied by undertaking the mission. Book 2 contains eight appendices.« less

Safety analysis report for the Galileo Mission. Volume 3, book 2: Nuclear risk analysis document. Appendices, revision 1

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

1989-01-01

It is the purpose of the NRAD to provide an analysis of the range of potential consequences of accidents which have been identified that are associated with the launching and deployment of the Galileo mission spacecraft. The specific consequences analyzed are those associated with the possible release of radioactive material (fuel) of the Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generators (RTGs). They are in terms of radiation doses to people and areas of deposition of radioactive material. These consequence analyses can be used in several ways. One way is to identify the potential range of consequences which might have to be dealt with if there were to be an accident with a release of fuel, so as to assure that, given such an accident, the health and safety of the public will be reasonably protected. Another use of the information, in conjunction with accident and release probabilities, is to estimate the risks associated with the mission. That is, most space launches occur without incident. Given an accident, the most probable result relative to the RTGs is complete containment of the radioactive material. Only a small fraction of accidents might result in a release of fuel and subsequent radiological consequences. The combination of probability with consequence is risk, which can be compared to other human and societal risks to assure that no undue risks are implied by undertaking the mission. Book 2 contains eight appendices.

Multiple external hazards compound level 3 PSA methods research of nuclear power plant

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Handing; Liang, Xiaoyu; Zhang, Xiaoming; Yang, Jianfeng; Liu, Weidong; Lei, Dina

2017-01-01

2011 Fukushima nuclear power plant severe accident was caused by both earthquake and tsunami, which results in large amount of radioactive nuclides release. That accident has caused the radioactive contamination on the surrounding environment. Although this accident probability is extremely small, once such an accident happens that is likely to release a lot of radioactive materials into the environment, and cause radiation contamination. Therefore, studying accidents consequences is important and essential to improve nuclear power plant design and management. Level 3 PSA methods of nuclear power plant can be used to analyze radiological consequences, and quantify risk to the public health effects around nuclear power plants. Based on multiple external hazards compound level 3 PSA methods studies of nuclear power plant, and the description of the multiple external hazards compound level 3 PSA technology roadmap and important technical elements, as well as taking a coastal nuclear power plant as the reference site, we analyzed the impact of off-site consequences of nuclear power plant severe accidents caused by multiple external hazards. At last we discussed the impact of off-site consequences probabilistic risk studies and its applications under multiple external hazards compound conditions, and explained feasibility and reasonableness of emergency plans implementation.

Scenario analysis of freight vehicle accident risks in Taiwan.

PubMed

Tsai, Ming-Chih; Su, Chien-Chih

2004-07-01

This study develops a quantitative risk model by utilizing Generalized Linear Interactive Model (GLIM) to analyze the major freight vehicle accidents in Taiwan. Eight scenarios are established by interacting three categorical variables of driver ages, vehicle types and road types, each of which contains two levels. The database that consists of 2043 major accidents occurring between 1994 and 1998 in Taiwan is utilized to fit and calibrate the model parameters. The empirical results indicate that accident rates of freight vehicles in Taiwan were high in the scenarios involving trucks and non-freeway systems, while; accident consequences were severe in the scenarios involving mature drivers or non-freeway systems. Empirical evidences also show that there is no significant relationship between accident rates and accident consequences. This is to stress that safety studies that describe risk merely as accident rates rather than the combination of accident rates and consequences by definition might lead to biased risk perceptions. Finally, the study recommends using number of vehicle as an alternative of traffic exposure in commercial vehicle risk analysis. The merits of this would be that it is simple and thus reliable; meanwhile, the resulted risk that is termed as fatalities per vehicle could provide clear and direct policy implications for insurance practices and safety regulations.

Learning lessons from Natech accidents - the eNATECH accident database

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krausmann, Elisabeth; Girgin, Serkan

2016-04-01

When natural hazards impact industrial facilities that house or process hazardous materials, fires, explosions and toxic releases can occur. This type of accident is commonly referred to as Natech accident. In order to prevent the recurrence of accidents or to better mitigate their consequences, lessons-learned type studies using available accident data are usually carried out. Through post-accident analysis, conclusions can be drawn on the most common damage and failure modes and hazmat release paths, particularly vulnerable storage and process equipment, and the hazardous materials most commonly involved in these types of accidents. These analyses also lend themselves to identifying technical and organisational risk-reduction measures that require improvement or are missing. Industrial accident databases are commonly used for retrieving sets of Natech accident case histories for further analysis. These databases contain accident data from the open literature, government authorities or in-company sources. The quality of reported information is not uniform and exhibits different levels of detail and accuracy. This is due to the difficulty of finding qualified information sources, especially in situations where accident reporting by the industry or by authorities is not compulsory, e.g. when spill quantities are below the reporting threshold. Data collection has then to rely on voluntary record keeping often by non-experts. The level of detail is particularly non-uniform for Natech accident data depending on whether the consequences of the Natech event were major or minor, and whether comprehensive information was available for reporting. In addition to the reporting bias towards high-consequence events, industrial accident databases frequently lack information on the severity of the triggering natural hazard, as well as on failure modes that led to the hazmat release. This makes it difficult to reconstruct the dynamics of the accident and renders the development of equipment vulnerability models linking the natural-hazard severity to the observed damage almost impossible. As a consequence, the European Commission has set up the eNATECH database for the systematic collection of Natech accident data and near misses. The database exhibits the more sophisticated accident representation required to capture the characteristics of Natech events and is publicly accessible at http://enatech.jrc.ec.europa.eu. This presentation outlines the general lessons-learning process, introduces the eNATECH database and its specific structure, and discusses natural-hazard specific lessons learned and features common to Natech accidents triggered by different natural hazards.

Assessment of environmental public exposure from a hypothetical nuclear accident for Unit-1 Bushehr nuclear power plant.

PubMed

Sohrabi, M; Ghasemi, M; Amrollahi, R; Khamooshi, C; Parsouzi, Z

2013-05-01

Unit-1 of the Bushehr nuclear power plant (BNPP-1) is a VVER-type reactor with 1,000-MWe power constructed near Bushehr city at the coast of the Persian Gulf, Iran. The reactor has been recently operational to near its full power. The radiological impact of nuclear power plant (NPP) accidents is of public concern, and the assessment of radiological consequences of any hypothetical nuclear accident on public exposure is vital. The hypothetical accident scenario considered in this paper is a design-basis accident, that is, a primary coolant leakage to the secondary circuit. This scenario was selected in order to compare and verify the results obtained in the present paper with those reported in the Final Safety Analysis Report (FSAR 2007) of the BNPP-1 and to develop a well-proven methodology that can be used to study other and more severe hypothetical accident scenarios for this reactor. In the present study, the version 2.01 of the PC COSYMA code was applied. In the early phase of the accidental releases, effective doses (from external and internal exposures) as well as individual and collective doses (due to the late phase of accidental releases) were evaluated. The surrounding area of the BNPP-1 within a radius of 80 km was subdivided into seven concentric rings and 16 sectors, and distribution of population and agricultural products was calculated for this grid. The results show that during the first year following the modeled hypothetical accident, the effective doses do not exceed the limit of 5 mSv, for the considered distances from the BNPP-1. The results obtained in this study are in good agreement with those in the FSAR-2007 report. The agreement obtained is in light of many inherent uncertainties and variables existing in the two modeling procedures applied and proves that the methodology applied here can also be used to model other severe hypothetical accident scenarios of the BNPP-1 such as a small and large break in the reactor coolant system as well as beyond design-basis accidents. Such scenarios are planned to be studied in the near future, for this reactor.

Radioactivity teaching: Environmental consequences of the radiological accident in Goiânia (Brazil)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anjos, R. M.; Facure, A.; Lima, E. L. N.; Gomes, P. R. S.; Santos, M. S.; Brage, J. A. P.; Okuno, E.; Yoshimura, E. M.; Umisedo, N. K.

2001-03-01

Ionizing radiation and its effects on human beings, radiation protection, and radiological accident prevention are topics usually not included in the physics courses at the Brazilian universities. As a consequence, high school teachers are not able to enlighten their students when radiological or nuclear accidents occur. This paper presents a teaching program on ionizing radiation physics, to be applied to undergraduate physics students and to physics high school teachers. It is based on the environmental consequences of the 1987 radiological accident in Goiânia. This program was applied to two undergraduate physics students, in 1999, at the Universidade Federal Fluminense, Brazil. Results of the gamma ray spectrometry measurements of samples collected in Goiânia by the students are presented.

Thermodynamic consequences of hydrogen combustion within a containment of pressurized water reactor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bury, Tomasz

2011-12-01

Gaseous hydrogen may be generated in a nuclear reactor system as an effect of the core overheating. This creates a risk of its uncontrolled combustion which may have a destructive consequences, as it could be observed during the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident. Favorable conditions for hydrogen production occur during heavy loss-of-coolant accidents. The author used an own computer code, called HEPCAL, of the lumped parameter type to realize a set of simulations of a large scale loss-of-coolant accidents scenarios within containment of second generation pressurized water reactor. Some simulations resulted in high pressure peaks, seemed to be irrational. A more detailed analysis and comparison with Three Mile Island and Fukushima accidents consequences allowed for withdrawing interesting conclusions.

Quantifying the risk of extreme aviation accidents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Das, Kumer Pial; Dey, Asim Kumer

2016-12-01

Air travel is considered a safe means of transportation. But when aviation accidents do occur they often result in fatalities. Fortunately, the most extreme accidents occur rarely. However, 2014 was the deadliest year in the past decade causing 111 plane crashes, and among them worst four crashes cause 298, 239, 162 and 116 deaths. In this study, we want to assess the risk of the catastrophic aviation accidents by studying historical aviation accidents. Applying a generalized Pareto model we predict the maximum fatalities from an aviation accident in future. The fitted model is compared with some of its competitive models. The uncertainty in the inferences are quantified using simulated aviation accident series, generated by bootstrap resampling and Monte Carlo simulations.

Offsite Radiological Consequence Analysis for the Bounding Flammable Gas Accident

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

CARRO, C.A.

2003-07-30

This document quantifies the offsite radiological consequences of the bounding flammable gas accident for comparison with the 25 rem Evaluation Guideline established in DOE-STD-3009, Appendix A. The bounding flammable gas accident is a detonation in a single-shell tank The calculation applies reasonably conservation input parameters in accordance with DOE-STD-3009, Appendix A, guidance. Revision 1 incorporates comments received from Office of River Protection.

Toxic release consequence analysis tool (TORCAT) for inherently safer design plant.

PubMed

Shariff, Azmi Mohd; Zaini, Dzulkarnain

2010-10-15

Many major accidents due to toxic release in the past have caused many fatalities such as the tragedy of MIC release in Bhopal, India (1984). One of the approaches is to use inherently safer design technique that utilizes inherent safety principle to eliminate or minimize accidents rather than to control the hazard. This technique is best implemented in preliminary design stage where the consequence of toxic release can be evaluated and necessary design improvements can be implemented to eliminate or minimize the accidents to as low as reasonably practicable (ALARP) without resorting to costly protective system. However, currently there is no commercial tool available that has such capability. This paper reports on the preliminary findings on the development of a prototype tool for consequence analysis and design improvement via inherent safety principle by utilizing an integrated process design simulator with toxic release consequence analysis model. The consequence analysis based on the worst-case scenarios during process flowsheeting stage were conducted as case studies. The preliminary finding shows that toxic release consequences analysis tool (TORCAT) has capability to eliminate or minimize the potential toxic release accidents by adopting the inherent safety principle early in preliminary design stage. 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

CPLOAS_2 User Manual.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sallaberry, Cedric Jean-Marie; Helton, Jon C.

2015-05-01

Weak link (WL)/strong link (SL) systems are important parts of the overall operational design of high - consequence systems. In such designs, the SL system is very robust and is intended to permit operation of the entire system under, and only under, intended conditions. In contrast, the WL system is intended to fail in a predictable and irreversible manner under accident conditions and render the entire system inoperable before an accidental operation of the SL system. The likelihood that the WL system will fail to d eactivate the entire system before the SL system fails (i.e., degrades into a configurationmore » that could allow an accidental operation of the entire system) is referred to as probability of loss of assured safety (PLOAS). This report describes the Fortran 90 program CPLOAS_2 that implements the following representations for PLOAS for situations in which both link physical properties and link failure properties are time - dependent: (i) failure of all SLs before failure of any WL, (ii) failure of any SL before f ailure of any WL, (iii) failure of all SLs before failure of all WLs, and (iv) failure of any SL before failure of all WLs. The effects of aleatory uncertainty and epistemic uncertainty in the definition and numerical evaluation of PLOAS can be included in the calculations performed by CPLOAS_2. Keywords: Aleatory uncertainty, CPLOAS_2, Epistemic uncertainty, Probability of loss of assured safety, Strong link, Uncertainty analysis, Weak link« less

Maritime Transportation Risk Assessment of Tianjin Port with Bayesian Belief Networks.

PubMed

Zhang, Jinfen; Teixeira, Ângelo P; Guedes Soares, C; Yan, Xinping; Liu, Kezhong

2016-06-01

This article develops a Bayesian belief network model for the prediction of accident consequences in the Tianjin port. The study starts with a statistical analysis of historical accident data of six years from 2008 to 2013. Then a Bayesian belief network is constructed to express the dependencies between the indicator variables and accident consequences. The statistics and expert knowledge are synthesized in the Bayesian belief network model to obtain the probability distribution of the consequences. By a sensitivity analysis, several indicator variables that have influence on the consequences are identified, including navigational area, ship type and time of the day. The results indicate that the consequences are most sensitive to the position where the accidents occurred, followed by time of day and ship length. The results also reflect that the navigational risk of the Tianjin port is at the acceptable level, despite that there is more room of improvement. These results can be used by the Maritime Safety Administration to take effective measures to enhance maritime safety in the Tianjin port. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

An uncertainty analysis of the hydrogen source term for a station blackout accident in Sequoyah using MELCOR 1.8.5

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gauntt, Randall O.; Bixler, Nathan E.; Wagner, Kenneth Charles

2014-03-01

A methodology for using the MELCOR code with the Latin Hypercube Sampling method was developed to estimate uncertainty in various predicted quantities such as hydrogen generation or release of fission products under severe accident conditions. In this case, the emphasis was on estimating the range of hydrogen sources in station blackout conditions in the Sequoyah Ice Condenser plant, taking into account uncertainties in the modeled physics known to affect hydrogen generation. The method uses user-specified likelihood distributions for uncertain model parameters, which may include uncertainties of a stochastic nature, to produce a collection of code calculations, or realizations, characterizing themore » range of possible outcomes. Forty MELCOR code realizations of Sequoyah were conducted that included 10 uncertain parameters, producing a range of in-vessel hydrogen quantities. The range of total hydrogen produced was approximately 583kg 131kg. Sensitivity analyses revealed expected trends with respected to the parameters of greatest importance, however, considerable scatter in results when plotted against any of the uncertain parameters was observed, with no parameter manifesting dominant effects on hydrogen generation. It is concluded that, with respect to the physics parameters investigated, in order to further reduce predicted hydrogen uncertainty, it would be necessary to reduce all physics parameter uncertainties similarly, bearing in mind that some parameters are inherently uncertain within a range. It is suspected that some residual uncertainty associated with modeling complex, coupled and synergistic phenomena, is an inherent aspect of complex systems and cannot be reduced to point value estimates. The probabilistic analyses such as the one demonstrated in this work are important to properly characterize response of complex systems such as severe accident progression in nuclear power plants.« less

75 FR 17439 - Biweekly Notice; Applications and Amendments to Facility Operating Licenses Involving No...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-04-06

... of an accident or that supports mitigation of an accident previously evaluated. The proposed... probability or consequences of an accident previously evaluated; or (2) create the possibility of a new or different kind of accident from any accident previously evaluated; or (3) involve a significant reduction in...

[Health-related consequences of obstructive sleep apnea: daytime sleepiness, accident risk and legal aspects].

PubMed

Orth, M; Kotterba, S

2012-04-01

Daytime sleepiness for any reason leads to impairment of daytime performance and an increased accident rate. The consequences are an increase of illness- and accident-related costs for the health system. Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is one of the major reasons for increased daytime sleepiness, especially in professional drivers. The accident frequency in OSA can be significantly reduced by adequate continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) therapy. Up till now there are no uniform legal regulations about the handling of OSAS patients or patients with daytime sleepiness due to other diseases as far as driving ability is concerned.

The impact of the accident at the Three Mile Island on the behavior and well-being of nuclear workers; Part I: perceptions and evaluations, behavioral responses, and work-related attitudes and feelings.

PubMed Central

Kasl, S V; Chisholm, R F; Eskenazi, B

1981-01-01

In order to assess the impact of the accident at the Three Mile Island (TMI), telephone interviews were conducted six months later with 324 nuclear workers assigned to TMI and 298 workers assigned to a comparison plant at Peach Bottom (PB). Examination of PB-TMI differences, stratified by supervisory status, revealed the following: Part I: TMI workers reported greater exposure to radiation at the time of the accident and felt that their health had been thereby endangered. TMI workers experienced more uncertainty and conflict at the time of the accident. Coping responses such as seeing a doctor, taking drugs, and increasing alcohol consumption were quite infrequent. Leaving the area was more common; however, over 40 per cent of TMI workers wished to leave but did not do so because of work obligations. TMI workers reported much lower job satisfaction and much greater uncertainty about their job future. PMID:7212135

The impact of the accident at the Three Mile Island on the behavior and well-being of nuclear workers; Part I: perceptions and evaluations, behavioral responses, and work-related attitudes and feelings.

PubMed

Kasl, S V; Chisholm, R F; Eskenazi, B

1981-05-01

In order to assess the impact of the accident at the Three Mile Island (TMI), telephone interviews were conducted six months later with 324 nuclear workers assigned to TMI and 298 workers assigned to a comparison plant at Peach Bottom (PB). Examination of PB-TMI differences, stratified by supervisory status, revealed the following: Part I: TMI workers reported greater exposure to radiation at the time of the accident and felt that their health had been thereby endangered. TMI workers experienced more uncertainty and conflict at the time of the accident. Coping responses such as seeing a doctor, taking drugs, and increasing alcohol consumption were quite infrequent. Leaving the area was more common; however, over 40 per cent of TMI workers wished to leave but did not do so because of work obligations. TMI workers reported much lower job satisfaction and much greater uncertainty about their job future.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brown, Nicholas; Burns, Joseph R.

The aftermath of the Tōhoku earthquake and the Fukushima accident has led to a global push to improve the safety of existing light water reactors. A key component of this initiative is the development of nuclear fuel and cladding materials with potentially enhanced accident tolerance, also known as accident-tolerant fuels (ATF). These materials are intended to improve core fuel and cladding integrity under beyond design basis accident conditions while maintaining or enhancing reactor performance and safety characteristics during normal operation. To complement research that has already been carried out to characterize ATF neutronics, the present study provides an initial investigationmore » of the sensitivity and uncertainty of ATF systems responses to nuclear cross section data. ATF concepts incorporate novel materials, including SiC and FeCrAl cladding and high density uranium silicide composite fuels, in turn introducing new cross section sensitivities and uncertainties which may behave differently from traditional fuel and cladding materials. In this paper, we conducted sensitivity and uncertainty analysis using the TSUNAMI-2D sequence of SCALE with infinite lattice models of ATF assemblies. Of all the ATF materials considered, it is found that radiative capture in 56Fe in FeCrAl cladding is the most significant contributor to eigenvalue uncertainty. 56Fe yields significant potential eigenvalue uncertainty associated with its radiative capture cross section; this is by far the largest ATF-specific uncertainty found in these cases, exceeding even those of uranium. We found that while significant new sensitivities indeed arise, the general sensitivity behavior of ATF assemblies does not markedly differ from traditional UO2/zirconium-based fuel/cladding systems, especially with regard to uncertainties associated with uranium. We assessed the similarity of the IPEN/MB-01 reactor benchmark model to application models with FeCrAl cladding. We used TSUNAMI-IP to calculate similarity indices of the application model and IPEN/MB-01 reactor benchmark model. This benchmark was selected for its use of SS304 as a cladding and structural material, with significant 56Fe content. The similarity indices suggest that while many differences in reactor physics arise from differences in design, sensitivity to and behavior of 56Fe absorption is comparable between systems, thus indicating the potential for this benchmark to reduce uncertainties in 56Fe radiative capture cross sections.« less

Single vehicle accident study

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1977-11-01

The general objectives of this study were to determine the nature and causes of single vehicle accidents, describe their resulting consequences, and develop recommendations to effect a reduction in the frequency and severity of these accidents. Analy...

Preventing accidents

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2005-08-01

As the most effective strategy for improving safety is to prevent accidents from occurring at all, the Volpe Center applies a broad range of research techniques and capabilities to determine causes and consequences of accidents and to identify, asses...

The kinetics of aerosol particle formation and removal in NPP severe accidents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zatevakhin, Mikhail A.; Arefiev, Valentin K.; Semashko, Sergey E.; Dolganov, Rostislav A.

2016-06-01

Severe Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) accidents are accompanied by release of a massive amount of energy, radioactive products and hydrogen into the atmosphere of the NPP containment. A valid estimation of consequences of such accidents can only be carried out through the use of the integrated codes comprising a description of the basic processes which determine the consequences. A brief description of a coupled aerosol and thermal-hydraulic code to be used for the calculation of the aerosol kinetics within the NPP containment in case of a severe accident is given. The code comprises a KIN aerosol unit integrated into the KUPOL-M thermal-hydraulic code. Some features of aerosol behavior in severe NPP accidents are briefly described.

The kinetics of aerosol particle formation and removal in NPP severe accidents

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zatevakhin, Mikhail A.; Arefiev, Valentin K.; Semashko, Sergey E.

2016-06-08

Severe Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) accidents are accompanied by release of a massive amount of energy, radioactive products and hydrogen into the atmosphere of the NPP containment. A valid estimation of consequences of such accidents can only be carried out through the use of the integrated codes comprising a description of the basic processes which determine the consequences. A brief description of a coupled aerosol and thermal–hydraulic code to be used for the calculation of the aerosol kinetics within the NPP containment in case of a severe accident is given. The code comprises a KIN aerosol unit integrated into themore » KUPOL-M thermal–hydraulic code. Some features of aerosol behavior in severe NPP accidents are briefly described.« less

10 CFR 76.85 - Assessment of accidents.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... 10 Energy 2 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Assessment of accidents. 76.85 Section 76.85 Energy NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION (CONTINUED) CERTIFICATION OF GASEOUS DIFFUSION PLANTS Safety § 76.85 Assessment of accidents. The Corporation shall perform an analysis of potential accidents and consequences to...

10 CFR 76.85 - Assessment of accidents.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... 10 Energy 2 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Assessment of accidents. 76.85 Section 76.85 Energy NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION (CONTINUED) CERTIFICATION OF GASEOUS DIFFUSION PLANTS Safety § 76.85 Assessment of accidents. The Corporation shall perform an analysis of potential accidents and consequences to...

10 CFR 76.85 - Assessment of accidents.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... 10 Energy 2 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Assessment of accidents. 76.85 Section 76.85 Energy NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION (CONTINUED) CERTIFICATION OF GASEOUS DIFFUSION PLANTS Safety § 76.85 Assessment of accidents. The Corporation shall perform an analysis of potential accidents and consequences to...

10 CFR 76.85 - Assessment of accidents.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 10 Energy 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Assessment of accidents. 76.85 Section 76.85 Energy NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION (CONTINUED) CERTIFICATION OF GASEOUS DIFFUSION PLANTS Safety § 76.85 Assessment of accidents. The Corporation shall perform an analysis of potential accidents and consequences to...

10 CFR 76.85 - Assessment of accidents.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... 10 Energy 2 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Assessment of accidents. 76.85 Section 76.85 Energy NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION (CONTINUED) CERTIFICATION OF GASEOUS DIFFUSION PLANTS Safety § 76.85 Assessment of accidents. The Corporation shall perform an analysis of potential accidents and consequences to...

[Medical consequences of drinking water pollution resulting from a chemical accident].

PubMed

Bulatova, F D; Teregulova, Z S

1992-01-01

The article describes consequences of the chemical accident in Ufa, lead to the drinkable water pollution by phenol and chlorophenolic compounds. Events required the prompt prophylactic measures and reconstruction of health care in the city. The treatment tactics approved at that period of time are represented.

Safety distance assessment of industrial toxic releases based on frequency and consequence: a case study in Shanghai, China.

PubMed

Yu, Q; Zhang, Y; Wang, X; Ma, W C; Chen, L M

2009-09-15

A case study on the safety distance assessment of a chemical industry park in Shanghai, China, is presented in this paper. Toxic releases were taken into consideration. A safety criterion based on frequency and consequence of major hazard accidents was set up for consequence analysis. The exposure limits for the accidents with the frequency of more than 10(-4), 10(-5)-10(-4) and 10(-6)-10(-5) per year were mortalities of 1% (or SLOT), 50% (SLOD) and 75% (twice of SLOD) respectively. Accidents with the frequency of less than 10(-6) per year were considered incredible and ignored in the consequence analysis. Taking the safety distance of all the hazard installations in a chemical plant into consideration, the results based on the new criterion were almost smaller than those based on LC50 or SLOD. The combination of the consequence and risk based results indicated that the hazard installations in two of the chemical plants may be dangerous to the protection targets and measurements had to be taken to reduce the risk. The case study showed that taking account of the frequency of occurrence in the consequence analysis would give more feasible safety distances for major hazard accidents and the results were more comparable to those calculated by risk assessment.

ARAMIS project: a comprehensive methodology for the identification of reference accident scenarios in process industries.

PubMed

Delvosalle, Christian; Fievez, Cécile; Pipart, Aurore; Debray, Bruno

2006-03-31

In the frame of the Accidental Risk Assessment Methodology for Industries (ARAMIS) project, this paper aims at presenting the work carried out in the part of the project devoted to the definition of accident scenarios. This topic is a key-point in risk assessment and serves as basis for the whole risk quantification. The first result of the work is the building of a methodology for the identification of major accident hazards (MIMAH), which is carried out with the development of generic fault and event trees based on a typology of equipment and substances. The term "major accidents" must be understood as the worst accidents likely to occur on the equipment, assuming that no safety systems are installed. A second methodology, called methodology for the identification of reference accident scenarios (MIRAS) takes into account the influence of safety systems on both the frequencies and possible consequences of accidents. This methodology leads to identify more realistic accident scenarios. The reference accident scenarios are chosen with the help of a tool called "risk matrix", crossing the frequency and the consequences of accidents. This paper presents both methodologies and an application on an ethylene oxide storage.

Burden, distribution and impact of domestic accidents in a semi-urban area of coastal Tamil Nadu, India.

PubMed

Stalin, P; Senthilvel, V; Kanimozhy, K; Singh, Zile; Rajkamal, R; Purty, Anil J

2015-01-01

The objectives of this study are to determine the prevalence of domestic accidents, describe the factors associated with domestic accidents and assess the medical and economical consequences of domestic accidents. Community-based cross-sectional study was conducted in a semi-urban area of Tamil Nadu during February 2013. A total of 3947 study participants were interviewed using a structured questionnaire. Study variables included were socio-demography, housing conditions, epidemiological factors, medical and economical consequences of domestic accidents. Means and proportions were calculated. The prevalence of domestic accidents was 12.7%. Out of 500 domestic accidents, falls (54.4%) was the most common type of domestic accident. Females and the respondents in age group of 21-40 years were more commonly affected. About 60% of victims received treatment. Mean duration of hospital stay, mean amount of money spent for treatment and mean number of days away from routine work for falls category were 16 days, US$25 and 8 days, respectively, which are higher than other types of accidents. The burden and impact of domestic accidents was high. Therefore, in order to prevent and control domestic accidents, promotion of house safety measures and creation of awareness among the community using IEC programmes have to be undertaken.

Severity of electrical accidents in the construction industry in Spain.

PubMed

Suárez-Cebador, Manuel; Rubio-Romero, Juan Carlos; López-Arquillos, Antonio

2014-02-01

This paper analyzes the severity of workplace accidents involving electricity in the Spanish construction sector comprising 2,776 accidents from 2003 to 2008. The investigation considered the impact of 13 variables, classified into 5 categories: Personal, Business, Temporal, Material, and Spatial. The findings showed that electrical accidents are almost five times more likely to have serious consequences than the average accident in the sector and it also showed how the variables of age, occupation, company size, length of service, preventive measures, time of day, days of absence, physical activity, material agent, type of injury, body part injured, accident location, and type of location are related to the severity of the electrical accidents under consideration. The present situation makes it clear that greater effort needs to be made in training, monitoring, and signage to guarantee a safe working environment in relation to electrical hazards. This research enables safety technicians, companies, and government officials to identify priorities and to design training strategies to minimize the serious consequences of electrical accidents for construction workers. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd and National Safety Council. All rights reserved.

Economic consequences of aviation system disruptions: A reduced-form computable general equilibrium analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Zhenhua; Rose, Adam Z.; Prager, Fynnwin

The state of the art approach to economic consequence analysis (ECA) is computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling. However, such models contain thousands of equations and cannot readily be incorporated into computerized systems used by policy analysts to yield estimates of economic impacts of various types of transportation system failures due to natural hazards, human related attacks or technological accidents. This paper presents a reduced-form approach to simplify the analytical content of CGE models to make them more transparent and enhance their utilization potential. The reduced-form CGE analysis is conducted by first running simulations one hundred times, varying key parameters, suchmore » as magnitude of the initial shock, duration, location, remediation, and resilience, according to a Latin Hypercube sampling procedure. Statistical analysis is then applied to the “synthetic data” results in the form of both ordinary least squares and quantile regression. The analysis yields linear equations that are incorporated into a computerized system and utilized along with Monte Carlo simulation methods for propagating uncertainties in economic consequences. Although our demonstration and discussion focuses on aviation system disruptions caused by terrorist attacks, the approach can be applied to a broad range of threat scenarios.« less

Psychiatric consequences of stress after a vehicle accident.

PubMed

Dickov, Aleksandra; Martinović-Mitrović, Sladjana; Vucković, Nikola; Siladji-Mladenović, Djendji; Mitrović, Dragan; Jovicević, Mirjana; Misić-Pavkov, Gordana

2009-12-01

Vehicle accidents are a common cause of disease and death among people over 30 years of age. Essentially, reaction to stress due to the vehicle accident does not differ from the reaction to other stress factors. There are still no uniform viewpoints about the kind of sequels and their percentage representation after vehicle accidents. The research was provided as a prospective study, included 150 subjects who had vehicle accident minimum 2 years prior to the examination. A questionnaire adjusted to the needs of the research and a battery of psychological tests was used. Affective disorders occurred in 35.33% of subjects, 65% of persons suffer from travel anxiety, 9% of the total number of examinees doesn't drive any more, 65% have somatisational dysfunctions of the vegetative nervous system, while the posttraumatic stress disorder is present in 36% of subjects. In 87.4% of persons psychiatric consequences last over two years. Long term consequences in 60% of subjects occur as a combination of multiple psychiatric disorders, so the posttraumatic stress disorder and affective disorders never occur one at a time.

A decade of occupational accidents due to direct or indirect electrical contact in the primary, secondary and tertiary sectors in Spain (2003-2012).

PubMed

Castillo-Rosa, Juan; Suárez-Cebador, Manuel; Rubio-Romero, Juan Carlos; Aguado, Jose Antonio

2017-03-01

Occupational accidents caused by electrical contact are a major concern worldwide due to their severe consequences. The study conducted is based on an analysis of the evolution of incidence rates and dependence between variables for 14,022 electrical accidents occurring in Spain between 2003 and 2012. The results show that electrical accidents as a whole are 3.6 times more likely to have severe consequences than the rest of the accidents in the country. This proportion is even nine times greater in the case of fatal accidents. They also confirm a significant relationship between the severity of this type of accidents and the economic sector in which they occur. On the other hand, there is a positive trend in the reduction of the incidence rate, especially in relation to direct contact, although unexpectedly the rate of accidents due to indirect contact is on the rise. Thus, preventing electrical occupational accidents requires efforts to guarantee adequate training adapted to the needs of workers in the various economic sectors. Furthermore, those responsible for safety should work to implement mechanisms to monitor and control compliance with efficient protective measures against electrical contact.

Management of Ultimate Risk of Nuclear Power Plants by Source Terms - Lessons Learned from the Chernobyl Accident

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Genn Saji

2006-07-01

The term 'ultimate risk' is used here to describe the probabilities and radiological consequences that should be incorporated in siting, containment design and accident management of nuclear power plants for hypothetical accidents. It is closely related with the source terms specified in siting criteria which assures an adequate separation of radioactive inventories of the plants from the public, in the event of a hypothetical and severe accident situation. The author would like to point out that current source terms which are based on the information from the Windscale accident (1957) through TID-14844 are very outdated and do not incorporate lessonsmore » learned from either the Three Miles Island (TMI, 1979) nor Chernobyl accident (1986), two of the most severe accidents ever experienced. As a result of the observations of benign radionuclides released at TMI, the technical community in the US felt that a more realistic evaluation of severe reactor accident source terms was necessary. In this background, the 'source term research project' was organized in 1984 to respond to these challenges. Unfortunately, soon after the time of the final report from this project was released, the Chernobyl accident occurred. Due to the enormous consequences induced by then accident, the one time optimistic perspectives in establishing a more realistic source term were completely shattered. The Chernobyl accident, with its human death toll and dispersion of a large part of the fission fragments inventories into the environment, created a significant degradation in the public's acceptance of nuclear energy throughout the world. In spite of this, nuclear communities have been prudent in responding to the public's anxiety towards the ultimate safety of nuclear plants, since there still remained many unknown points revolving around the mechanism of the Chernobyl accident. In order to resolve some of these mysteries, the author has performed a scoping study of the dispersion and deposition mechanisms of fuel particles and fission fragments during the initial phase of the Chernobyl accident. Through this study, it is now possible to generally reconstruct the radiological consequences by using a dispersion calculation technique, combined with the meteorological data at the time of the accident and land contamination densities of {sup 137}Cs measured and reported around the Chernobyl area. Although it is challenging to incorporate lessons learned from the Chernobyl accident into the source term issues, the author has already developed an example of safety goals by incorporating the radiological consequences of the accident. The example provides safety goals by specifying source term releases in a graded approach in combination with probabilities, i.e. risks. The author believes that the future source term specification should be directly linked with safety goals. (author)« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kolaczkowski, A.M.; Lambright, J.A.; Ferrell, W.L.

This document contains the internal event initiated accident sequence analyses for Peach Bottom, Unit 2; one of the reference plants being examined as part of the NUREG-1150 effort by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. NUREG-1150 will document the risk of a selected group of nuclear power plants. As part of that work, this report contains the overall core damage frequency estimate for Peach Bottom, Unit 2, and the accompanying plant damage state frequencies. Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses provided additional insights regarding the dominant contributors to the Peach Bottom core damage frequency estimate. The mean core damage frequency at Peach Bottom wasmore » calculated to be 8.2E-6. Station blackout type accidents (loss of all ac power) were found to dominate the overall results. Anticipated Transient Without Scram accidents were also found to be non-negligible contributors. The numerical results are largely driven by common mode failure probability estimates and to some extent, human error. Because of significant data and analysis uncertainties in these two areas (important, for instance, to the most dominant scenario in this study), it is recommended that the results of the uncertainty and sensitivity analyses be considered before any actions are taken based on this analysis.« less

Analysis of traffic accidents in Romania, 2009.

PubMed

Călinoiu, Geovana; Minca, Dana Galieta; Furtunescu, Florentina Ligia

2012-01-01

This paper aimed to underline the main consequences of traffic accidents in Romania 2009 and their associated causes or circumstances. We identified some problematic geographic areas, some critical months or moments of the day and also the most frequent causes; all these should become targets for the future planning. The current analysis provides some priority criteria for public health interventions. So, the future national road safety strategy should be in line with the EU objectives, but also with the national priorities. Romania is far away from the average EU target for 2010 of halving the death by traffic accidents registered in 2001. To describe the circumstances and the consequences related to traffic accidents registered in Romania, for the year 2009. An ecological study was conducted. The traffic accidents circumstances were analyzed in terms of magnitude, geographic space, time and cause. The consequences were analyzed as affected people and damaged cars. A total of 28,627 traffic accidents were registered in Romania during the year 2009. 2,796 people were killed and 27,968 were hospitalized and 42,443 cars were damaged. 3 of 4 accidents were caused by violations on behalf of the car drivers. Most common violations in car drivers were excess of speed and priority violations (52.4%). Among the pedestrians, 7 of 10 accidents were caused by illegal crossing. A higher number of accidents occurred during the summer months and during the evening hours (from 5.00 pm till 8.00 pm). The traffic accidents represent a real public health problem in Romania and a serious burden for the health system. The gap between Romania and the other EU member states needs to be diminished in the next decade. In this purpose, the future national road safety strategy should be in line with the EU objectives, but also with the national priorities. Research is needed to understand the causes and the socio-economical impact of traffic accidents and to define appropriate national objectives.

Emergency drinking water treatment during source water pollution accidents in China: origin analysis, framework and technologies.

PubMed

Zhang, Xiao-Jian; Chen, Chao; Lin, Peng-Fei; Hou, Ai-Xin; Niu, Zhang-Bin; Wang, Jun

2011-01-01

China has suffered frequent source water contamination accidents in the past decade, which has resulted in severe consequences to the water supply of millions of residents. The origins of typical cases of contamination are discussed in this paper as well as the emergency response to these accidents. In general, excessive pursuit of rapid industrialization and the unreasonable location of factories are responsible for the increasing frequency of accidental pollution events. Moreover, insufficient attention to environmental protection and rudimentary emergency response capability has exacerbated the consequences of such accidents. These environmental accidents triggered or accelerated the promulgation of stricter environmental protection policy and the shift from economic development mode to a more sustainable direction, which should be regarded as the turning point of environmental protection in China. To guarantee water security, China is trying to establish a rapid and effective emergency response framework, build up the capability of early accident detection, and develop efficient technologies to remove contaminants from water.

Medical and policy considerations for nuclear and radiation accidents, incidents and terrorism.

PubMed

Gale, Robert Peter

2017-11-01

The purpose of this review is to address the increasing medical and public concern regarding the health consequences of radiation exposure, a concern shaped not only by fear of another Chernobyl or Fukushima nuclear power facility accident but also by the intentional use of a nuclear weapon, a radiological dispersion device, a radiological exposure device, or an improved nuclear device by rogue states such as North Korea and terrorist organizations such as Al Qaeda and ISIS. The United States has the medical capacity to respond to a limited nuclear or radiation accident or incident but an effective medical response to a catastrophic nuclear event is impossible. Dealing effectively with nuclear and radiation accidents or incidents requires diverse strategies, including policy decisions, public education, and medical preparedness. I review medical consequences of exposures to ionizing radiations, likely concomitant injuries and potential medical intervention. These data should help haematologists and other healthcare professionals understand the principles of medical consequences of nuclear terrorism. However, the best strategy is prevention.

Critical Protection Item classification for a waste processing facility at Savannah River Site

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ades, M.J.; Garrett, R.J.

1993-10-01

This paper describes the methodology for Critical Protection Item (CPI) classification and its application to the Structures, Systems and Components (SSC) of a waste processing facility at the Savannah River Site (SRS). The WSRC methodology for CPI classification includes the evaluation of the radiological and non-radiological consequences resulting from postulated accidents at the waste processing facility and comparison of these consequences with allowable limits. The types of accidents considered include explosions and fire in the facility and postulated accidents due to natural phenomena, including earthquakes, tornadoes, and high velocity straight winds. The radiological analysis results indicate that CPIs are notmore » required at the waste processing facility to mitigate the consequences of radiological release. The non-radiological analysis, however, shows that the Waste Storage Tank (WST) and the dike spill containment structures around the formic acid tanks in the cold chemical feed area and waste treatment area of the facility should be identified as CPIs. Accident mitigation options are provided and discussed.« less

Analysis on Dangerous Source of Large Safety Accident in Storage Tank Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Tong; Li, Ying; Xie, Tiansheng; Liu, Yu; Zhu, Xueyuan

2018-01-01

The difference between a large safety accident and a general accident is that the consequences of a large safety accident are particularly serious. To study the tank area which factors directly or indirectly lead to the occurrence of large-sized safety accidents. According to the three kinds of hazard source theory and the consequence cause analysis of the super safety accident, this paper analyzes the dangerous source of the super safety accident in the tank area from four aspects, such as energy source, large-sized safety accident reason, management missing, environmental impact Based on the analysis of three kinds of hazard sources and environmental analysis to derive the main risk factors and the AHP evaluation model is established, and after rigorous and scientific calculation, the weights of the related factors in four kinds of risk factors and each type of risk factors are obtained. The result of analytic hierarchy process shows that management reasons is the most important one, and then the environmental factors and the direct cause and Energy source. It should be noted that although the direct cause is relatively low overall importance, the direct cause of Failure of emergency measures and Failure of prevention and control facilities in greater weight.

Fukushima Daiichi Unit 1 Uncertainty Analysis-Exploration of Core Melt Progression Uncertain Parameters-Volume II.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Denman, Matthew R.; Brooks, Dusty Marie

Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) has conducted an uncertainty analysi s (UA) on the Fukushima Daiichi unit (1F1) accident progression wit h the MELCOR code. Volume I of the 1F1 UA discusses the physical modeling details and time history results of the UA. Volume II of the 1F1 UA discusses the statistical viewpoint. The model used was developed for a previous accident reconstruction investigation jointly sponsored by the US Department of Energy (DOE) and Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). The goal of this work was to perform a focused evaluation of uncertainty in core damage progression behavior and its effect on keymore » figures - of - merit (e.g., hydrogen production, fraction of intact fuel, vessel lower head failure) and in doing so assess the applicability of traditional sensitivity analysis techniques .« less

Fuzzy approach for reducing subjectivity in estimating occupational accident severity.

PubMed

Pinto, Abel; Ribeiro, Rita A; Nunes, Isabel L

2012-03-01

Quantifying or, more generally, estimating the severity of the possible consequences of occupational accidents is a decisive step in any occupational risk assessment process. Because of the lack of historic information (accident data collection and recording are incipient and insufficient, particularly in construction) and the lack of practical tools in the construction industry, the estimation/quantification of occupational accident severity is a notably arbitrary process rather than a systematic and rigorous assessment. This work proposes several severity functions (based on a safety risk assessment) to represent biomechanical knowledge with the aim of determining the severity level of occupational accidents in the construction industry and, consequently, improving occupational risk assessment quality. We follow a fuzzy approach because it makes it possible to capture and represent imprecise knowledge in a simple and understandable way for users and specialists. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analysis of the causes and consequences of falls from scaffolding using the Polish construction industry as an example

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoła, A.; Hoła, B.; Szóstak, M.

2017-10-01

The results of research published in many publications indicate that the scale of the problem of accidents at work in the construction industry is significant. Fatal and serious accidents, which in the construction industry are often a result of a fall from a height and associated with working on scaffolding, have a particularly strong impact on society. Systematic controls carried out on Polish construction sites indicate irregularities in the area of ensuring safety on scaffolding. As a result of conducted own studies, dozens of accidents caused by falls from scaffolding were selected from the total number of accidents at work in the construction industry and then analysed. The aim of the research was to identify the causes of these accidents and their consequences. The results of studies conducted in this area will be the content of the article.

Spatio-temporal patterns of hazards and their use in risk assessment and mitigation. Case study of road accidents in Romania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Catalin Stanga, Iulian

2013-04-01

Road accidents are among the leading causes of death in many world countries, partly as an inherent consequence of the increasing mobility of today society. The World Health Organization estimates that 1.3 million people died in road accidents in 2011, which means 186 deaths per million. The tragic picture is completed by millions of peoples experiencing different physical injuries or by the enormous social and economic costs that these events imply. Romania has one of the most unsafe road networks within the European Union, with annual averages of 9400 accidents, 8300 injuries and almost 2680 fatalities (2007-2012). An average of 141 death per million is more than twice the average fatality rate in European Union (about 60 death per million). Other specific indicators (accidents or fatalities reported to the road length, vehicle fleet size, driving license owners or adult population etc.) are even worst in the same European context. Road accidents are caused by a complex series of factors, some of them being a relatively constant premise, while others act as catalyzing factors or triggering agent: road features and quality, vehicle technical state, weather conditions, human related factors etc. All these lead to a complex equation with too many unknown variables, making almost impossible a probabilistic approach. However, the high concentration of accidents in a region or in some road sectors is caused by the existence of a specific context, created by factors with permanent or repetitive character, and leads to the idea of a spatial autocorrelation between locations of different adjoining accident. In the same way, the increasing frequency of road accidents and of their causes repeatability in different periods of the year would allow to identify those black timeframes with higher incidence of road accidents. Identifying and analyzing the road blackspots (hotspots) and black zones would help to improve road safety by acting against the common causes that create the spatial or temporal clustering of crash accidents. Since the 1990's, Geographical Informational Systems (GIS) became a very important tool for traffic and road safety management, allowing not only the spatial and multifactorial analysis, but also graphical and non-graphical outputs. The current paper presents an accessible GIS methodology to study the spatio-temporal pattern of injury related road accidents, to identify the high density accidents zones, to make a cluster analysis, to create multicriterial typologies, to identify spatial and temporal similarities and to explain them. In this purpose, a Geographical Information System was created, allowing a complex analysis that involves not only the events, but also a large set of interrelated and spatially linked attributes. The GIS includes the accidents as georeferenced point elements with a spatially linked attribute database: identification information (date, location details); accident type; main, secondary and aggravating causes; data about driver; vehicle information; consequences (damages, injured peoples and fatalities). Each attribute has its own number code that allows both the statistical analysis and the spatial interrogation. The database includes those road accidents that led to physical injuries and loss of human lives between 2007 and 2012 and the spatial analysis was realized using TNTmips 7.3 software facilities. Data aggregation and processing allowed creating the spatial pattern of injury related road accidents through Kernel density estimation at three different levels (national - Romania; county level - Iasi County; local level - Iasi town). Spider graphs were used to create the temporal pattern or road accidents at three levels (daily, weekly and monthly) directly related to their causes. Moreover the spatial and temporal database relates the natural hazards (glazed frost, fog, and blizzard) with the human made ones, giving the opportunity to evaluate the nature of uncertainties in risk assessment. At the end, this paper provides a clustering methodology based on several environmental indicators intended to classify the spatial and temporal hotspots of road traffic insecurity. The results are a useful guide for planners and decision makers in developing effective road safety strategies and measures.

Categorizing accident sequences in the external radiotherapy for risk analysis

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Purpose This study identifies accident sequences from the past accidents in order to help the risk analysis application to the external radiotherapy. Materials and Methods This study reviews 59 accidental cases in two retrospective safety analyses that have collected the incidents in the external radiotherapy extensively. Two accident analysis reports that accumulated past incidents are investigated to identify accident sequences including initiating events, failure of safety measures, and consequences. This study classifies the accidents by the treatments stages and sources of errors for initiating events, types of failures in the safety measures, and types of undesirable consequences and the number of affected patients. Then, the accident sequences are grouped into several categories on the basis of similarity of progression. As a result, these cases can be categorized into 14 groups of accident sequence. Results The result indicates that risk analysis needs to pay attention to not only the planning stage, but also the calibration stage that is committed prior to the main treatment process. It also shows that human error is the largest contributor to initiating events as well as to the failure of safety measures. This study also illustrates an event tree analysis for an accident sequence initiated in the calibration. Conclusion This study is expected to provide sights into the accident sequences for the prospective risk analysis through the review of experiences. PMID:23865005

Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program, U.S. Efforts in Support of Examinations at Fukushima Daiichi-2017 Evaluations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Farmer, Mitchell T.

Although the accident signatures from each unit at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station (NPS) [Daiichi] differ, much is not known about the end-state of core materials within these units. Some of this uncertainty can be attributed to a lack of information related to cooling system operation and cooling water injection. There is also uncertainty in our understanding of phenomena affecting: a) in-vessel core damage progression during severe accidents in boiling water reactors (BWRs), and b) accident progression after vessel failure (ex-vessel progression) for BWRs and Pressurized Water Reactors (PWRs). These uncertainties arise due to limited full scale prototypic data.more » Similar to what occurred after the accident at Three Mile Island Unit 2, these Daiichi units offer the international community a means to reduce such uncertainties by obtaining prototypic data from multiple full-scale BWR severe accidents. Information obtained from Daiichi is required to inform Decontamination and Decommissioning activities, improving the ability of the Tokyo Electric Power Company Holdings, Incorporated (TEPCO Holdings) to characterize potential hazards and to ensure the safety of workers involved with cleanup activities. This document, which has been updated to include FY2017 information, summarizes results from U.S. efforts to use information obtained by TEPCO Holdings to enhance the safety of existing and future nuclear power plant designs. This effort, which was initiated in 2014 by the Reactor Safety Technologies Pathway of the Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy Light Water Reactor (LWR) Sustainability Program, consists of a group of U.S. experts in LWR safety and plant operations that have identified examination needs and are evaluating TEPCO Holdings information from Daiichi that address these needs. Each year, annual reports include examples demonstrating that significant safety insights are being obtained in the areas of component performance, fission product release and transport, debris end-state location, and combustible gas generation and transport. In addition to reducing uncertainties related to severe accident modeling progression, these insights are being used to update guidance for severe accident prevention, mitigation, and emergency planning. Furthermore, reduced uncertainties in modeling the events at Daiichi will improve the realism of reactor safety evaluations and inform future D&D activities by improving the capability for characterizing potential hazards to workers involved with cleanup activities. Highlights in this FY2017 report include new insights with respect to the forces required to produce the observed Daiichi Unit 1 (1F1) shield plug endstate, the observed leakage from 1F1 components, and the amount of combustible gas generation required to produce the observed explosions in Daiichi Units 3 and 4 (1F3 and 1F4). This report contains an appendix with a list of examination needs that was updated after U.S. experts reviewed recently obtained information from examinations at Daiichi. Additional details for higher priority, near-term, examination activities are also provided. This report also includes an appendix with a description of an updated website that has been reformatted to better assist U.S. experts by providing information in an archived retrievable location, as well as an appendix summarizing U.S. Forensics activities to host the TMI-2 Knowledge Transfer and Relevance to Fukushima Meeting that was held in Idaho Falls, ID, on October 10-14, 2016.« less

Estimates of the economic and human consequences of motor vehicle accidents in Virginia during 1980.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1982-01-01

The purpose of this report is to describe the cost of motor vehicle accidents in two ways first, by identifying the cost components and quantifying them, and second by showing the severity of such accidents in terms of human suffering. Although many ...

10 CFR 72.24 - Contents of application: Technical information.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... components provided for the prevention of accidents and the mitigation of the consequences of accidents... radiation exposures within the limits given in part 20 of this chapter, and for meeting the objective of... outside the controlled area from accidents or natural phenomena events that result in the release of...

10 CFR 72.24 - Contents of application: Technical information.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... components provided for the prevention of accidents and the mitigation of the consequences of accidents... radiation exposures within the limits given in part 20 of this chapter, and for meeting the objective of... outside the controlled area from accidents or natural phenomena events that result in the release of...

10 CFR 72.24 - Contents of application: Technical information.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... components provided for the prevention of accidents and the mitigation of the consequences of accidents... radiation exposures within the limits given in part 20 of this chapter, and for meeting the objective of... outside the controlled area from accidents or natural phenomena events that result in the release of...

Low-Probability High-Consequence (LPHC) Failure Events in Geologic Carbon Sequestration Pipelines and Wells: Framework for LPHC Risk Assessment Incorporating Spatial Variability of Risk

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Oldenburg, Curtis M.; Budnitz, Robert J.

If Carbon dioxide Capture and Storage (CCS) is to be effective in mitigating climate change, it will need to be carried out on a very large scale. This will involve many thousands of miles of dedicated high-pressure pipelines in order to transport many millions of tonnes of CO 2 annually, with the CO 2 delivered to many thousands of wells that will inject the CO 2 underground. The new CCS infrastructure could rival in size the current U.S. upstream natural gas pipeline and well infrastructure. This new infrastructure entails hazards for life, health, animals, the environment, and natural resources. Pipelinesmore » are known to rupture due to corrosion, from external forces such as impacts by vehicles or digging equipment, by defects in construction, or from the failure of valves and seals. Similarly, wells are vulnerable to catastrophic failure due to corrosion, cement degradation, or operational mistakes. While most accidents involving pipelines and wells will be minor, there is the inevitable possibility of accidents with very high consequences, especially to public health. The most important consequence of concern is CO 2 release to the environment in concentrations sufficient to cause death by asphyxiation to nearby populations. Such accidents are thought to be very unlikely, but of course they cannot be excluded, even if major engineering effort is devoted (as it will be) to keeping their probability low and their consequences minimized. This project has developed a methodology for analyzing the risks of these rare but high-consequence accidents, using a step-by-step probabilistic methodology. A key difference between risks for pipelines and wells is that the former are spatially distributed along the pipe whereas the latter are confined to the vicinity of the well. Otherwise, the methodology we develop for risk assessment of pipeline and well failures is similar and provides an analysis both of the annual probabilities of accident sequences of concern and of their consequences, and crucially the methodology provides insights into what measures might be taken to mitigate those accident sequences identified as of concern. Mitigating strategies could address reducing the likelihood of an accident sequence of concern, or reducing the consequences, or some combination. The methodology elucidates both local and integrated risks along the pipeline or at the well providing information useful to decision makers at various levels including local (e.g., property owners and town councils), regional (e.g., county and state representatives), and national levels (federal regulators and corporate proponents).« less

Chronic Stress and Three Mile Island: Toxic Exposure and Uncertainty.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Davidson, Laura M.; And Others

Although many researchers expected the psychological effects of the accident at the Three Mile Island (TMI) nuclear plant to be short-lived, area residents continued to show elevated levels of stress. To examine stress levels of TMI residents 28 months after the accident, 141 subjects were chosen from nearby areas, and from a town 80 miles away.…

A two-stage optimization model for emergency material reserve layout planning under uncertainty in response to environmental accidents.

PubMed

Liu, Jie; Guo, Liang; Jiang, Jiping; Jiang, Dexun; Liu, Rentao; Wang, Peng

2016-06-05

In the emergency management relevant to pollution accidents, efficiency emergency rescues can be deeply influenced by a reasonable assignment of the available emergency materials to the related risk sources. In this study, a two-stage optimization framework is developed for emergency material reserve layout planning under uncertainty to identify material warehouse locations and emergency material reserve schemes in pre-accident phase coping with potential environmental accidents. This framework is based on an integration of Hierarchical clustering analysis - improved center of gravity (HCA-ICG) model and material warehouse location - emergency material allocation (MWL-EMA) model. First, decision alternatives are generated using HCA-ICG to identify newly-built emergency material warehouses for risk sources which cannot be satisfied by existing ones with a time-effective manner. Second, emergency material reserve planning is obtained using MWL-EMA to make emergency materials be prepared in advance with a cost-effective manner. The optimization framework is then applied to emergency management system planning in Jiangsu province, China. The results demonstrate that the developed framework not only could facilitate material warehouse selection but also effectively provide emergency material for emergency operations in a quick response. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Wheelchair-related accidents: relationship with wheelchair-using behavior in active community wheelchair users.

PubMed

Chen, Wan-Yin; Jang, Yuh; Wang, Jung-Der; Huang, Wen-Ni; Chang, Chan-Chia; Mao, Hui-Fen; Wang, Yen-Ho

2011-06-01

To report the prevalence, mechanisms, self-perceived causes, consequences, and wheelchair-using behaviors associated with wheelchair-related accidents. A case-control study. Community. A sample of experienced, community-dwelling, active manual and powered wheelchair users (N=95) recruited from a hospital assistive technology service center. Not applicable. Wheelchair-using behaviors, wheelchair-related accidents over a 3-year period, and the mechanisms and consequences of the accidents. Among the 95 participants, 52 (54.7%) reported at least 1 accident and 16 (16.8%) reported 2 or more accidents during the 3 years prior to the interview. A total of 74 accidents, were categorized into tips and falls (87.8%), accidental contact (6.8%), and dangerous operations (5.4%). A logistic regression found individuals who failed to maintain their wheelchairs regularly (odds ratio [OR]=11.28; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.62-48.61) and used a wheelchair not prescribed by professionals (OR=4.31; 95% CI, 1.10-16.82) had significantly greater risks of accidents. In addition to the risk factor, lack of regular wheelchair maintenance, the Poisson regression corroborated the other risk factor, seat belts not used (incident rate ratio=2.14; 95% CI, 1.08-4.14), for wheelchair-related accidents. Wheelchair-related accidents are closely related to their wheelchair-using behaviors. Services including professional evaluation, repair, maintenance, and an educational program on proper wheelchair use may decrease the risks of wheelchair accidents. Copyright © 2011 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Analysis of typical WWER-1000 severe accident scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sorokin, Yu.S.; Shchekoldin, V.V.; Borisov, L.N.

2004-07-01

At present in EDO 'Gidropress' there is a certain experience of performing the analyses of severe accidents of reactor plant with WWER with application of domestic and foreign codes. Important data were also obtained by the results of calculation modeling of integrated experiments with fuel assembly melting comprising a real fuel. Systematization and consideration of these data in development and assimilation of codes are extremely important in connection with large uncertainty still existing in understanding and adequate description of phenomenology of severe accidents. The presented report gives a comparison of analysis results of severe accidents of reactor plant with WWER-1000more » for two typical scenarios made by using American MELCOR code and the Russian RATEG/SVECHA/HEFEST code. The results of calculation modeling are compared using above codes with the data of experiment FPT1 with fuel assembly melting comprising a real fuel, which has been carried out at the facility Phebus (France). The obtained results are considered in the report from the viewpoint of: - adequacy of results of calculation modeling of separate phenomena during severe accidents of RP with WWER by using the above codes; - influence of uncertainties (degree of details of calculation models, choice of parameters of models etc.); - choice of those or other setup variables (options) in the used codes; - necessity of detailed modeling of processes and phenomena as applied to design justification of safety of RP with WWER. (authors)« less

Using probabilistic criteria in an assessment of the potential radiological consequences of the decommissioning of a nuclear research reactor

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wallner, Christian; Rall, Anna-Maria; Thummerer, Severin

In order to assess the risk of radiological consequences of incidents and accidents in nuclear facilities it is important to contemplate their frequency of occurrence. It has to be shown that incidents and accidents occur sufficiently seldom according to their radiological consequences i. e. the occurrence frequency of radiological doses has to be limited. This is even demanded by the German radiation protection ordinance (StrlSchV), which says that in nuclear facilities other than nuclear power plants (NPP) in operation and for decommissioning, the occurrence frequency of incidents and accidents shall be contemplated in order to prove the design of safetymore » measures and safety installations. Based on the ideas of the ICRP64, we developed a risk based assessment concept for nuclear facilities, which fulfils the requirements of the German regulations concerning dose limits in normal operation and design basis accidents. The general use of the concept is dedicated to nuclear facilities other than nuclear power plants (NPP) in operation and for decommissioning, where the regulation of risk assessment is less sophisticated. The concept specifies occurrence frequency limits for radiation exposure dose ranges, i. e. the occurrence frequency of incidents and accidents has to be limited according to their radiological effects. To apply this concept, scenarios of incidents and accidents are grouped in exposition classes according to their resulting potential effective dose to members of the general public. The occurrence frequencies of the incidents and accidents are summarized in each exposition class whereas the sum must not exceed the frequency limits mentioned above. In the following we introduce the application of this concept in the assessment of the potential radiological consequences of the decommissioning of a nuclear research reactor. We carried out this assessment for the licensing process of the decommissioning on behalf of German authorities. (authors)« less

Psychological Distress and Post-Traumatic Symptoms Following Occupational Accidents

PubMed Central

Ghisi, Marta; Novara, Caterina; Buodo, Giulia; Kimble, Matthew O.; Scozzari, Simona; Di Natale, Arianna; Sanavio, Ezio; Palomba, Daniela

2013-01-01

Depression and post-traumatic stress disorder frequently occur as a consequence of occupational accidents. To date, research has been primarily focused on high-risk workers, such as police officers or firefighters, and has rarely considered individuals whose occupational environment involves the risk of severe, but not necessarily life-threatening, injury. Therefore, the present study was aimed at assessing the psychological consequences of accidents occurring in several occupational settings (e.g., construction and industry). Thirty-eight victims of occupational accidents (injured workers) and 38 gender-, age-, and years of education-matched workers who never experienced a work accident (control group) were recruited. All participants underwent a semi-structured interview administered by a trained psychologist, and then were requested to fill in the questionnaires. Injured workers reported more severe anxious, post-traumatic and depressive symptoms, and poorer coping skills, as compared to controls. In the injured group low levels of resilience predicted post-traumatic symptomatology, whereas the degree of physical injury and the length of time since the accident did not play a predictive role. The results suggest that occupational accidents may result in a disabling psychopathological condition, and that a brief psychological evaluation should be included in the assessment of seriously injured workers. PMID:25379258

Biomedical Lessons from the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant Accident

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-10-01

Lessons From the Lt Col Doris Browne, MC Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant Accident The Chernobyl nuclear accident afforded the treating physicians a...radiation accident posited on the skin and mucous mem- A Lt Col Dori Browne, MC, is Chief, Medicaloccurred at the Chernobyl nuclear branes from the molten...Conclusion ulcers of oral mucosa, which required irradiation. He also had persistent The consequences ot the Chernobyl sterile saline irrigation and

MELCOR simulations of the severe accident at Fukushima Daiichi Unit 3

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cardoni, Jeffrey; Gauntt, Randall; Kalinich, Donald

In response to the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station in Japan, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission and U.S. Department of Energy agreed to jointly sponsor an accident reconstruction study as a means of assessing the severe accident modeling capability of the MELCOR code. Objectives of the project included reconstruction of the accident progressions using computer models and accident data, and validation of the MELCOR code and the Fukushima models against plant data. A MELCOR 2.1 model of the Fukushima Daiichi Unit 3 reactor is developed using plant-specific information and accident-specific boundary conditions, which involve considerable uncertainty duemore » to the inherent nature of severe accidents. Publicly available thermal-hydraulic data and radioactivity release estimates have evolved significantly since the accidents. Such data are expected to continually change as the reactors are decommissioned and more measurements are performed. As a result, the MELCOR simulations in this work primarily use boundary conditions that are based on available plant data as of May 2012.« less

MELCOR simulations of the severe accident at Fukushima Daiichi Unit 3

DOE PAGES

Cardoni, Jeffrey; Gauntt, Randall; Kalinich, Donald; ...

2014-05-01

In response to the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station in Japan, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission and U.S. Department of Energy agreed to jointly sponsor an accident reconstruction study as a means of assessing the severe accident modeling capability of the MELCOR code. Objectives of the project included reconstruction of the accident progressions using computer models and accident data, and validation of the MELCOR code and the Fukushima models against plant data. A MELCOR 2.1 model of the Fukushima Daiichi Unit 3 reactor is developed using plant-specific information and accident-specific boundary conditions, which involve considerable uncertainty duemore » to the inherent nature of severe accidents. Publicly available thermal-hydraulic data and radioactivity release estimates have evolved significantly since the accidents. Such data are expected to continually change as the reactors are decommissioned and more measurements are performed. As a result, the MELCOR simulations in this work primarily use boundary conditions that are based on available plant data as of May 2012.« less

77 FR 50534 - Biweekly Notice; Applications and Amendments to Facility Operating Licenses and Combined Licenses...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-08-21

...) involve a significant increase in the probability or consequences of an accident previously evaluated; or (2) create the possibility of a new or different kind of accident from any accident previously... statement of the alleged facts or expert opinion which support the contention and on which the requestor...

75 FR 30440 - Biweekly Notice: Applications and Amendments to Facility Operating Licenses Involving No...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-06-01

... consequences of an accident previously evaluated; or (2) create the possibility of a new or different kind of accident from any accident previously evaluated; or (3) involve a significant reduction in a margin of... alleged facts or expert opinion which support the contention and on which the requestor/ petitioner...

76 FR 67485 - Biweekly Notice; Applications and Amendments to Facility Operating Licenses Involving No...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-11-01

... [email protected] . Federal Rulemaking Web Site: Public comments and supporting materials related... increase in the probability or consequences of an accident previously evaluated; or (2) create the possibility of a new or different kind of accident from any accident previously evaluated; or (3) involve a...

Modeling the effectiveness of oil combating from an ecological perspective--a Bayesian network for the Gulf of Finland; the Baltic Sea.

PubMed

Helle, Inari; Lecklin, Tiina; Jolma, Ari; Kuikka, Sakari

2011-01-15

Maritime traffic poses a major threat to marine ecosystems in the form of oil spills. The Gulf of Finland, the easternmost part of the Baltic Sea, has witnessed a rapid increase in oil transportation during the last 15 years. Should a spill occur, the negative ecological impacts may be reduced by oil combating, the effectiveness of which is, however, strongly dependent on prevailing environmental conditions and available technical resources. This poses increased uncertainty related to ecological consequences of future spills. We developed a probabilistic Bayesian network model that can be used to assess the effectiveness of different oil combating strategies in minimizing the negative effects of oil on six species living in the Gulf of Finland. The model can be used for creating different accident scenarios and assessing the performance of various oil combating actions under uncertainty, which enables its use as a supportive tool in decision-making. While the model is confined to the western Gulf of Finland, the methodology is adaptable to other marine areas facing similar risks and challenges related to oil spills. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Inverse modelling of radionuclide release rates using gamma dose rate observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamburger, Thomas; Stohl, Andreas; von Haustein, Christoph; Thummerer, Severin; Wallner, Christian

2014-05-01

Severe accidents in nuclear power plants such as the historical accident in Chernobyl 1986 or the more recent disaster in the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant in 2011 have drastic impacts on the population and environment. The hazardous consequences reach out on a national and continental scale. Environmental measurements and methods to model the transport and dispersion of the released radionuclides serve as a platform to assess the regional impact of nuclear accidents - both, for research purposes and, more important, to determine the immediate threat to the population. However, the assessments of the regional radionuclide activity concentrations and the individual exposure to radiation dose underlie several uncertainties. For example, the accurate model representation of wet and dry deposition. One of the most significant uncertainty, however, results from the estimation of the source term. That is, the time dependent quantification of the released spectrum of radionuclides during the course of the nuclear accident. The quantification of the source terms of severe nuclear accidents may either remain uncertain (e.g. Chernobyl, Devell et al., 1995) or rely on rather rough estimates of released key radionuclides given by the operators. Precise measurements are mostly missing due to practical limitations during the accident. Inverse modelling can be used to realise a feasible estimation of the source term (Davoine and Bocquet, 2007). Existing point measurements of radionuclide activity concentrations are therefore combined with atmospheric transport models. The release rates of radionuclides at the accident site are then obtained by improving the agreement between the modelled and observed concentrations (Stohl et al., 2012). The accuracy of the method and hence of the resulting source term depends amongst others on the availability, reliability and the resolution in time and space of the observations. Radionuclide activity concentrations are observed on a relatively sparse grid and the temporal resolution of available data may be low within the order of hours or a day. Gamma dose rates on the other hand are observed routinely on a much denser grid and higher temporal resolution. Gamma dose rate measurements contain no explicit information on the observed spectrum of radionuclides and have to be interpreted carefully. Nevertheless, they provide valuable information for the inverse evaluation of the source term due to their availability (Saunier et al., 2013). We present a new inversion approach combining an atmospheric dispersion model and observations of radionuclide activity concentrations and gamma dose rates to obtain the source term of radionuclides. We use the Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART (Stohl et al., 1998; Stohl et al., 2005) to model the atmospheric transport of the released radionuclides. The gamma dose rates are calculated from the modelled activity concentrations. The inversion method uses a Bayesian formulation considering uncertainties for the a priori source term and the observations (Eckhardt et al., 2008). The a priori information on the source term is a first guess. The gamma dose rate observations will be used with inverse modelling to improve this first guess and to retrieve a reliable source term. The details of this method will be presented at the conference. This work is funded by the Bundesamt für Strahlenschutz BfS, Forschungsvorhaben 3612S60026. References Davoine, X. and Bocquet, M., Atmos. Chem. Phys., 7, 1549-1564, 2007. Devell, L., et al., OCDE/GD(96)12, 1995. Eckhardt, S., et al., Atmos. Chem. Phys., 8, 3881-3897, 2008. Saunier, O., et al., Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 11403-11421, 2013. Stohl, A., et al., Atmos. Environ., 32, 4245-4264, 1998. Stohl, A., et al., Atmos. Chem. Phys., 5, 2461-2474, 2005. Stohl, A., et al., Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 2313-2343, 2012.

Aftereffect Calculation and Prediction of Methanol Tank Leak’s Environmental Risk Accident

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lang, Yueting; Zheng, Lina; Chen, Henan; Wang, Qiushi; Jiang, Hui; Pan, Yiwen

2018-01-01

With the increasing frequency of environmental risk accidents, more emphasis was placed on environmental risk assessment. In this article, the aftermath of an Environmental Risk Accident on Methanol Tank Leakage occurred on a cryogenic unit area in a certain oilfield processing plant have been mainly calculated and predicted. Major hazards were identified through the major hazards identification on dangerous chemicals, which could afterwards analyze maximum credible accident and confirm source item and the source intensity. In the end, the consequence of the accident has been calculated so that the impact on surrounding environment can be predicted after the accident.

[Ethics, empiricism and uncertainty].

PubMed

Porz, R; Zimmermann, H; Exadaktylos, A K

2011-01-01

Accidents can lead to difficult boundary situations. Such situations often take place in the emergency units. The medical team thus often and inevitably faces professional uncertainty in their decision-making. It is essential to communicate these uncertainties within the medical team, instead of downplaying or overriding existential hurdles in decision-making. Acknowledging uncertainties might lead to alert and prudent decisions. Thus uncertainty can have ethical value in treatment or withdrawal of treatment. It does not need to be covered in evidence-based arguments, especially as some singular situations of individual tragedies cannot be grasped in terms of evidence-based medicine. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

FLAMMABLE GAS TECHNICAL BASIS DOCUMENT

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

KRIPPS, L.J.

2005-02-18

This document describes the qualitative evaluation of frequency and consequences for double shell tank (DST) and single shell tank (SST) representative flammable gas accidents and associated hazardous conditions without controls. The evaluation indicated that safety-significant SSCs and/or TSRS were required to prevent or mitigate flammable gas accidents. Discussion on the resulting control decisions is included. This technical basis document was developed to support of the Tank Farms Documented Safety Analysis (DSA) and describes the risk binning process for the flammable gas representative accidents and associated represented hazardous conditions. The purpose of the risk binning process is to determine the needmore » for safety-significant structures, systems, and components (SSC) and technical safety requirement (TSR)-level controls for a given representative accident or represented hazardous condition based on an evaluation of the event frequency and consequence.« less

Flammable gas technical basis document

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

CARRO, C.A.

2003-03-22

This document qualitatively evaluates the frequency and consequences of DST and SST representative flammable gas accidents and associated represented hazardous conditions without controls. Based on the evaluation, it was determined that safety-significant SSCs and/or TSRs were required to prevent or mitigate flammable gas accidents. Controls were selected and the accidents re-evaluated taking credit for the controls.

78 FR 60321 - Biweekly Notice; Applications and Amendments to Facility Operating Licenses and Combined Licenses...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-10-01

... sample selection. A steam generator tube rupture (SGTR) event is one of the design basis accidents that... in the design basis accident analysis. The proposed change will not cause the consequences of a SGTR... changes to the plant design basis or postulated accidents resulting from potential tube degradation. The...

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

PIEPHO, M.G.

Four bounding accidents postulated for the K West Basin integrated water treatment system are evaluated against applicable risk evaluation guidelines. The accidents are a spray leak during fuel retrieval, spray leak during backflushing a hydrogen explosion, and a fire breaching filter vessel and enclosure. Event trees and accident probabilities are estimated. In all cases, the unmitigated dose consequences are below the risk evaluation guidelines.

78 FR 77729 - Biweekly Notice: Applications and Amendments to Facility Operating Licenses and Combined Licenses...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-12-24

... amendment would not (1) involve a significant increase in the probability or consequences of an accident previously evaluated; or (2) create the possibility of a new or different kind of accident from any accident... alleged facts or expert opinion which support the contention and on which the requestor/ petitioner...

78 FR 15747 - Applications and Amendments to Facility Operating Licenses and Combined Licenses Involving...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-03-12

... consequences of an accident previously evaluated; or (2) create the possibility of a new or different kind of accident from any accident previously evaluated; or (3) involve a significant reduction in a margin of... contention and a concise statement of the alleged facts or expert opinion which support the contention and on...

75 FR 26287 - Notice; Applications and Amendments to Facility Operating Licenses Involving Proposed No...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-05-11

... amendment would not (1) involve a significant increase in the probability or consequences of an accident previously evaluated; or (2) create the possibility of a new or different kind of accident from any accident... contention and a concise statement of the alleged facts or expert opinion which support the contention and on...

77 FR 51071 - Indiana Michigan Power Company, Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant, Unit 2, Environmental Assessment...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-08-23

... adversely affect plant safety, and would have no adverse effect on the probability of any accident. For the accidents that involve damage or melting of the fuel in the reactor core, fuel rod integrity has been shown to be unaffected by extended burnup under consideration; therefore, the consequences of an accident...

A probabilistic model for accidental cargo oil outflow from product tankers in a ship-ship collision.

PubMed

Goerlandt, Floris; Montewka, Jakub

2014-02-15

In risk assessment of maritime transportation, estimation of accidental oil outflow from tankers is important for assessing environmental impacts. However, there typically is limited data concerning the specific structural design and tank arrangement of ships operating in a given area. Moreover, there is uncertainty about the accident scenarios potentially emerging from ship encounters. This paper proposes a Bayesian network (BN) model for reasoning under uncertainty for the assessment of accidental cargo oil outflow in a ship-ship collision where a product tanker is struck. The BN combines a model linking impact scenarios to damage extent with a model for estimating the tank layouts based on limited information regarding the ship. The methodology for constructing the model is presented and output for two accident scenarios is shown. The discussion elaborates on the issue of model validation, both in terms of the BN and in light of the adopted uncertainty/bias-based risk perspective. Copyright © 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

General RMP Guidance - Table of Contents

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The Risk Management Programs for Chemical Accident Prevention (40 CFR Part 68) guidance is in chapters; each covering topics such as applicability of the rule, and requirements for reporting five-year accident history and offsite consequence analysis.

14 CFR 420.59 - Launch site accident investigation plan.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... consequences of a launch site accident are contained and minimized; (2) Ensure data and physical evidence are...) Description of the event; (iv) Number of injuries, if any, and general description of types of injuries...

Liquid and gaseous oxygen safety review, volume 3

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lapin, A.

1972-01-01

Practices employed in the oxygen systems maintenance programs to minimize both accident probabilities and consequences of accidents and/or incidents are described. Appropriate sections of the operations department and industrial gas operating manuals are discussed.

The Tokaimura Nuclear Accident: A Tragedy of Human Errors.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ryan, Michael E.

2001-01-01

Discusses nuclear power and the consequences of a nuclear accident. Covers issues ranging from chemical process safety to risk management of chemical industries to the ethical responsibilities of the chemical engineer. (Author/ASK)

Road accidents caused by drivers falling asleep.

PubMed

Sagberg, F

1999-11-01

About 29600 Norwegian accident-involved drivers received a questionnaire about the last accident reported to their insurance company. About 9200 drivers (31%) returned the questionnaire. The questionnaire contained questions about sleep or fatigue as contributing factors to the accident. In addition, the drivers reported whether or not they had fallen asleep some time whilst driving. and what the consequences had been. Sleep or drowsiness was a contributing factor in 3.9% of all accidents, as reported by drivers who were at fault for the accident. This factor was strongly over-represented in night-time accidents (18.6%), in running-off-the-road accidents (8.3%), accidents after driving more than 150 km on one trip (8.1%), and personal injury accidents (7.3%). A logistic regression analysis showed that the following additional factors made significant and independent contributions to increasing the odds of sleep involvement in an accident: dry road, high speed limit, driving one's own car, not driving the car daily, high education, and few years of driving experience. More male than female drivers were involved in sleep-related accidents, but this seems largely to be explained by males driving relatively more than females on roads with high speed limits. A total of 10% of male drivers and 4% of females reported to have fallen asleep while driving during the last 12 months. A total of 4% of these events resulted in an accident. The most frequent consequence of falling asleep--amounting to more than 40% of the reported incidents--was crossing of the right edge-line before awaking, whereas crossing of the centreline was reported by 16%. Drivers' lack of awareness of important precursors of falling asleep--like highway hypnosis, driving without awareness, and similar phenomena--as well as a reluctance to discontinue driving despite feeling tired are pointed out as likely contributors to sleep-related accidents. More knowledge about the drivers' experiences immediately preceding such accidents may give a better background for implementing effective driver warning systems and other countermeasures.

The Chernobyl accident and its consequences.

PubMed

Saenko, V; Ivanov, V; Tsyb, A; Bogdanova, T; Tronko, M; Demidchik, Yu; Yamashita, S

2011-05-01

The accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant was the worst industrial accident of the last century that involved radiation. The unprecedented release of multiple different radioisotopes led to radioactive contamination of large areas surrounding the accident site. The exposure of the residents of these areas was varied and therefore the consequences for health and radioecology could not be reliably estimated quickly. Even though some studies have now been ongoing for 25 years and have provided a better understanding of the situation, these are yet neither complete nor comprehensive enough to determine the long-term risk. A true assessment can only be provided after following the observed population for their natural lifespan. Here we review the technical aspects of the accident and provide relevant information on radioactive releases that resulted in exposure of this large population to radiation. A number of different groups of people were exposed to radiation: workers involved in the initial clean-up response, and members of the general population who were either evacuated from the settlements in the Chernobyl nuclear power plant vicinity shortly after the accident, or continued to live in the affected territories of Belarus, Russia and Ukraine. Through domestic efforts and extensive international co-operation, essential information on radiation dose and health status for this population has been collected. This has permitted the identification of high-risk groups and the use of more specialised means of collecting information, diagnosis, treatment and follow-up. Because radiation-associated thyroid cancer is one of the major health consequences of the Chernobyl accident, a particular emphasis is placed on this malignancy. The initial epidemiological studies are reviewed, as are the most significant studies and/or aid programmes in the three affected countries. Copyright © 2011 The Royal College of Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A few seconds to have an accident, a long time to recover: consequences for road accident victims from the ESPARR cohort 2 years after the accident.

PubMed

Tournier, Charlène; Charnay, Pierrette; Tardy, Hélène; Chossegros, Laetitia; Carnis, Laurent; Hours, Martine

2014-11-01

The aim of the present study was to describe the consequences of a road accident in adults, taking account of the type of road user, and to determine predictive factors for consequences at 2 years. Prospective follow-up study. The cohort was composed of 1168 victims of road traffic accidents, aged ≥16 years. Two years after the accident, 912 victims completed a self-administered questionnaire. Weighted logistic regression models were implemented to compare casualties still reporting impact related to the accident versus those reporting no residual impact. Five outcomes were analysed: unrecovered health status, impact on occupation or studies, on familial or affective life, on leisure or sport activities and but also the financial difficulties related to the accident. 46.1% of respondents were motorised four-wheel users, 29.6% motorised two-wheel (including quad) users, 13.3% pedestrians (including inline skate and push scooter users) and 11.1% cyclists. 53.3% reported unrecovered health status, 32.0% persisting impact on occupation or studies, 25.2% on familial or affective life, 46.9% on leisure or sport activities and 20.2% still had accident-related financial difficulties. Type of user, adjusted on age and gender, was linked to unrecovered health status and to impact on leisure or sport activities. When global severity (as measured by NISS) was integrated in the previous model, type of user was also associated with impact on occupation or studies. Type of user was further associated with impact on occupation or studies and on leisure or sport activities when global severity and the sociodemographic data obtained at inclusion were taken into account. It was not, however, related to any of the outcomes studied here, when the models focused on the injured body region. Finally, type of road user did not seem, on the various predictive models, to be related to financial difficulties due to the accident or to impact on familial or affective life. Overall, victims were affected by their accident even 2 years after it occurred. The severity of lesions induced by the accident was the main predictive factor. However, considering lesion as intermediary factors between the accident and the recovery status at 2 year post-accident, impact on health status was lower for cyclists than M4W users or M2W users. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

40 CFR 68.22 - Offsite consequence analysis parameters.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 15 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Offsite consequence analysis... PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) CHEMICAL ACCIDENT PREVENTION PROVISIONS Hazard Assessment § 68.22 Offsite consequence analysis parameters. (a) Endpoints. For analyses of offsite consequences, the following endpoints shall be...

Why System Safety Professionals Should Read Accident Reports

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Holloway, C. M.; Johnson, C. W.

2006-01-01

System safety professionals, both researchers and practitioners, who regularly read accident reports reap important benefits. These benefits include an improved ability to separate myths from reality, including both myths about specific accidents and ones concerning accidents in general; an increased understanding of the consequences of unlikely events, which can help inform future designs; a greater recognition of the limits of mathematical models; and guidance on potentially relevant research directions that may contribute to safety improvements in future systems.

Thirty years after the Chernobyl accident: What lessons have we learnt?

PubMed

Beresford, N A; Fesenko, S; Konoplev, A; Skuterud, L; Smith, J T; Voigt, G

2016-06-01

April 2016 sees the 30(th) anniversary of the accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant. As a consequence of the accident populations were relocated in Belarus, Russia and Ukraine and remedial measures were put in place to reduce the entry of contaminants (primarily (134+137)Cs) into the human food chain in a number of countries throughout Europe. Remedial measures are still today in place in a number of countries, and areas of the former Soviet Union remain abandoned. The Chernobyl accident led to a large resurgence in radioecological studies both to aid remediation and to be able to make future predictions on the post-accident situation, but, also in recognition that more knowledge was required to cope with future accidents. In this paper we discuss, what in the authors' opinions, were the advances made in radioecology as a consequence of the Chernobyl accident. The areas we identified as being significantly advanced following Chernobyl were: the importance of semi-natural ecosystems in human dose formation; the characterisation and environmental behaviour of 'hot particles'; the development and application of countermeasures; the "fixation" and long term bioavailability of radiocaesium and; the effects of radiation on plants and animals. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Upon the reconstruction of accidents triggered by tire explosion. Analytical model and case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaiginschi, L.; Agape, I.; Talif, S.

2017-10-01

Accident Reconstruction is important in the general context of increasing road traffic safety. In the casuistry of traffic accidents, those caused by tire explosions are critical under the severity of consequences, because they are usually happening at high speeds. Consequently, the knowledge of the running speed of the vehicle involved at the time of the tire explosion is essential to elucidate the circumstances of the accident. The paper presents an analytical model for the kinematics of a vehicle which, after the explosion of one of its tires, begins to skid, overturns and rolls. The model consists of two concurent approaches built as applications of the momentum conservation and energy conservation principles, and allows determination of the initial speed of the vehicle involved, by running backwards the sequences of the road event. The authors also aimed to both validate the two distinct analytical approaches by calibrating the calculation algorithms on a case study

Flammable Gas Technical Basis Document

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

CARRO, C.A.

2003-07-30

This document qualitatively evaluates the frequency and consequences of DST and SST representative flammable gas accidents and associated represented hazardous conditions without controls. Based on the evaluation, it was determined that safety-significant SSCs and/or TSRs were required to prevent or mitigate flammable gas accidents. Controls were selected and the accidents re-evaluated taking credit for the controls. Revision 1 incorporates comments received from ORP.

Construction of a technique plan repository and evaluation system based on AHP group decision-making for emergency treatment and disposal in chemical pollution accidents.

PubMed

Shi, Shenggang; Cao, Jingcan; Feng, Li; Liang, Wenyan; Zhang, Liqiu

2014-07-15

The environmental pollution resulting from chemical accidents has caused increasingly serious concerns. Therefore, it is very important to be able to determine in advance the appropriate emergency treatment and disposal technology for different types of chemical accidents. However, the formulation of an emergency plan for chemical pollution accidents is considerably difficult due to the substantial uncertainty and complexity of such accidents. This paper explains how the event tree method was used to create 54 different scenarios for chemical pollution accidents, based on the polluted medium, dangerous characteristics and properties of chemicals involved. For each type of chemical accident, feasible emergency treatment and disposal technology schemes were established, considering the areas of pollution source control, pollutant non-proliferation, contaminant elimination and waste disposal. Meanwhile, in order to obtain the optimum emergency disposal technology schemes as soon as the chemical pollution accident occurs from the plan repository, the technique evaluation index system was developed based on group decision-improved analytical hierarchy process (AHP), and has been tested by using a sudden aniline pollution accident that occurred in a river in December 2012. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

After Fukushima: managing the consequences of a radiological release.

PubMed

Fitzgerald, Joe; Wollner, Samuel B; Adalja, Amesh A; Morhard, Ryan; Cicero, Anita; Inglesby, Thomas V

2012-06-01

Even amidst the devastation following the earthquake and tsunami in Japan that killed more than 20,000 people, it was the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant that led the country's prime minister, Naoto Kan, to fear for "the very existence of the Japanese nation." While accidents that result in mass radiological releases have been rare throughout the operating histories of existing nuclear power plants, the growing number of plants worldwide increases the likelihood that such releases will occur again in the future. Nuclear power is an important source of energy in the U.S. and will be for the foreseeable future. Accidents far smaller in scale than the one in Fukushima could have major societal consequences. Given the extensive, ongoing Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and industry assessment of nuclear power plant safety and preparedness issues, the Center for Biosecurity of UPMC focused on offsite policies and plans intended to reduce radiation exposure to the public in the aftermath of an accident. This report provides an assessment of Japan's efforts at nuclear consequence management; identifies concerns with current U.S. policies and practices for "outside the fence" management of such an event in the U.S.; and makes recommendations for steps that can be taken to strengthen U.S. government, industry, and community response to large-scale accidents at nuclear power plants.

Flow reversal power limit for the HFBR

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cheng, Lap Y.; Tichler, P.R.

The High Flux Beam Reactor (HFBR) undergoes a buoyancy-driven reversal of flow in the reactor core following certain postulated accidents. Uncertainties about the afterheat removal capability during the flow reversal has limited the reactor operating power to 30 MW. An experimental and analytical program to address these uncertainties is described in this report. The experiments were single channel flow reversal tests under a range of conditions. The analytical phase involved simulations of the tests to benchmark the physical models and development of a criterion for dryout. The criterion is then used in simulations of reactor accidents to determine a safemore » operating power level. It is concluded that the limit on the HFBR operating power with respect to the issue of flow reversal is in excess of 60 MW.« less

Risk Assessment for Emergency Planning Related to Nuclear Weapons Accidents

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-09-25

accidents is higher than many of the other accidents, several reviewers thought it appropriate to evaluate these accidents in more detail. In particular, it...consequences is presented in Table 2-5. The plutonium releases in the 1F-3F gram range are due to plutonium burning in Type A weapons, while the higher ...explosion given a tanker casualty varies from 0.05 (in harbor) to 0.16 (at pier) to 0.19 (at sea). Although these numbers are somewhat higher than the

Domino effect in chemical accidents: main features and accident sequences.

PubMed

Darbra, R M; Palacios, Adriana; Casal, Joaquim

2010-11-15

The main features of domino accidents in process/storage plants and in the transportation of hazardous materials were studied through an analysis of 225 accidents involving this effect. Data on these accidents, which occurred after 1961, were taken from several sources. Aspects analyzed included the accident scenario, the type of accident, the materials involved, the causes and consequences and the most common accident sequences. The analysis showed that the most frequent causes are external events (31%) and mechanical failure (29%). Storage areas (35%) and process plants (28%) are by far the most common settings for domino accidents. Eighty-nine per cent of the accidents involved flammable materials, the most frequent of which was LPG. The domino effect sequences were analyzed using relative probability event trees. The most frequent sequences were explosion→fire (27.6%), fire→explosion (27.5%) and fire→fire (17.8%). Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Mitigating the consequences of accidents

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2005-08-01

If an accident occurs, effective strategies must be available to minimize the effects in terms of loss of life, injury, and property damage. The Volpe Center's work in this area is reviewed in this report. It ranges from occupant protection strategie...

Road casualties in work-related and private contexts: Occupational medical impact: Results from the ESPARR cohort.

PubMed

Fort, E; Pélissier, C; Fanjas, A; Charnay, P; Charbotel, B; Bergeret, A; Fontana, L; Hours, M

2018-05-22

Road accidents may impact victims' physical and/or mental health and socio-occupational life, notably including return to work. To assess whether the occupational medical consequences sustained by subjects injured in road accidents occurring in a work-related context differ from those associated with private accidents. 778 adults who were in work or occupational training at the time of their accident were included. Two groups were distinguished: 354 (45.5%) injured in road accidents occurring in a work-related context (commuting or on duty) and 424 (54.5%) injured in a private accident. The groups were compared on medical and occupational factors assessed on prospective follow-up at 6 months and 1 and 3 years. Multivariate analysis explored for factors associated at 6 months and 1 year with sick leave following the accident and duration of sick leave. There were no significant differences between groups for demographic data apart from a slightly higher injury severity in private accidents (32.5% of private accidents with MAIS3+(Maximum Abbreviated Injury Scale greater or equal to 3) vs. 23.7% for work-related accidents, p = 0.007). Victims of work-related accidents were more often on sick leave (OR = 1.8; 95% CI, 1.1-2.9). Although the length of sick leave is higher for work-related accidents that for private accidents, multivariate analysis showed that the injury severity and the post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) are significant factors to explain the time to return to work. There were no significant differences according to occupational impact during follow-up, notably including sick-leave duration, number of victims returning to work within 3 years and number of victims out of work due to incapacity. In the ESPARR (follow-up study of a road-accident population in the Rhône administrative county: Etude de Suivi d'une Population d'Accidentés de la Route dans le Rhône) cohort, the fact that a road accident occurred in a work-related context did not affect the occupational consequences.

Patterns and consequences of inadequate sleep in college students: substance use and motor vehicle accidents.

PubMed

Taylor, Daniel J; Bramoweth, Adam D

2010-06-01

We examined college sleep patterns and consequences using a cross-sectional design. We found that students get insufficient sleep and frequently use medication and alcohol as sleep aids, use stimulants as alertness aids, and fall asleep at the wheel, or have motor vehicle accidents due to sleepiness. Future studies should focus on effective interventions for sleep in college students. Copyright 2010 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Prediction of trauma-specific death rates of pedestrians of Fars Province, Iran.

PubMed

Akbari, Maryam; Tabrizi, Reza; Heydari, Seyed Taghi; Sekhavati, Eghbal; Moosazadeh, Mahmood; Lankarani, Kamran Bagheri

2015-09-01

Pedestrians are the most vulnerable group to accidents among road users. Due to the well-known concerns and complications of accidents involving pedestrians, the aim of this study was to identify the rate of such accidents for five-year period. We analyzed all fatalities among pedestrians caused by traffic accidents during years of 2009-2013 in Fars Province in Iran. The study was a cross-sectional study in which logistic regression analysis was used to predict the death rate among pedestrians. Sensitivity analysis using the Monte Carlo method was used to increase the accuracy of the results. Then, we predicted the death rates for the years 2014-2018 predicted and compared the results with the actual data from the previous five-year period (2009-2013). During 2009-2013, 1723 out of 8689 (20.3%) of the people killed in traffic accidents were pedestrians. The death rate for male pedestrians in 2011 was estimated to be 10.86 per 100,000 (with an uncertainty interval of 95% giving a range of 9.85-12.05 per 100,000). Compared to the data for 2006, this represented a decrease of 20% (with a mean decrease of 4% per year). Based on these data, the death date in 2018n was projected to be 8.08 per 100,000 (with an uncertainty interval of 95% giving a range of 7.26-8.87). Similar data and analysis for women indicated that the reduction in the rate of fatalities has been smaller than that for men in recent years, i.e., 2.2% versus 4%. Although great progress has been made in reducing traffic accidents, to date, the death rate is still high among pedestrians. It is essential to continue to find ways to reduce traffic accidents and the pedestrians' deaths associated with them, especially among the elderly, who make up a disproportionate fraction of the deaths.

Prediction of trauma-specific death rates of pedestrians of Fars Province, Iran

PubMed Central

Akbari, Maryam; Tabrizi, Reza; Heydari, Seyed Taghi; Sekhavati, Eghbal; Moosazadeh, Mahmood; Lankarani, Kamran Bagheri

2015-01-01

Introduction: Pedestrians are the most vulnerable group to accidents among road users. Due to the well-known concerns and complications of accidents involving pedestrians, the aim of this study was to identify the rate of such accidents for five-year period. Methods: We analyzed all fatalities among pedestrians caused by traffic accidents during years of 2009–2013 in Fars Province in Iran. The study was a cross-sectional study in which logistic regression analysis was used to predict the death rate among pedestrians. Sensitivity analysis using the Monte Carlo method was used to increase the accuracy of the results. Then, we predicted the death rates for the years 2014–2018 predicted and compared the results with the actual data from the previous five-year period (2009–2013). Results: During 2009–2013, 1723 out of 8689 (20.3%) of the people killed in traffic accidents were pedestrians. The death rate for male pedestrians in 2011 was estimated to be 10.86 per 100,000 (with an uncertainty interval of 95% giving a range of 9.85–12.05 per 100,000). Compared to the data for 2006, this represented a decrease of 20% (with a mean decrease of 4% per year). Based on these data, the death date in 2018n was projected to be 8.08 per 100,000 (with an uncertainty interval of 95% giving a range of 7.26–8.87). Similar data and analysis for women indicated that the reduction in the rate of fatalities has been smaller than that for men in recent years, i.e., 2.2% versus 4%. Conclusion: Although great progress has been made in reducing traffic accidents, to date, the death rate is still high among pedestrians. It is essential to continue to find ways to reduce traffic accidents and the pedestrians’ deaths associated with them, especially among the elderly, who make up a disproportionate fraction of the deaths. PMID:26435824

Probability of loss of assured safety in temperature dependent systems with multiple weak and strong links.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Johnson, Jay Dean; Oberkampf, William Louis; Helton, Jon Craig

2004-12-01

Relationships to determine the probability that a weak link (WL)/strong link (SL) safety system will fail to function as intended in a fire environment are investigated. In the systems under study, failure of the WL system before failure of the SL system is intended to render the overall system inoperational and thus prevent the possible occurrence of accidents with potentially serious consequences. Formal developments of the probability that the WL system fails to deactivate the overall system before failure of the SL system (i.e., the probability of loss of assured safety, PLOAS) are presented for several WWSL configurations: (i) onemore » WL, one SL, (ii) multiple WLs, multiple SLs with failure of any SL before any WL constituting failure of the safety system, (iii) multiple WLs, multiple SLs with failure of all SLs before any WL constituting failure of the safety system, and (iv) multiple WLs, multiple SLs and multiple sublinks in each SL with failure of any sublink constituting failure of the associated SL and failure of all SLs before failure of any WL constituting failure of the safety system. The indicated probabilities derive from time-dependent temperatures in the WL/SL system and variability (i.e., aleatory uncertainty) in the temperatures at which the individual components of this system fail and are formally defined as multidimensional integrals. Numerical procedures based on quadrature (i.e., trapezoidal rule, Simpson's rule) and also on Monte Carlo techniques (i.e., simple random sampling, importance sampling) are described and illustrated for the evaluation of these integrals. Example uncertainty and sensitivity analyses for PLOAS involving the representation of uncertainty (i.e., epistemic uncertainty) with probability theory and also with evidence theory are presented.« less

40 CFR 68.165 - Offsite consequence analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 15 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Offsite consequence analysis. 68.165 Section 68.165 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) CHEMICAL ACCIDENT PREVENTION PROVISIONS Risk Management Plan § 68.165 Offsite consequence...

40 CFR 68.165 - Offsite consequence analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 15 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Offsite consequence analysis. 68.165 Section 68.165 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) CHEMICAL ACCIDENT PREVENTION PROVISIONS Risk Management Plan § 68.165 Offsite consequence...

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Knudsen, J.K.; Smith, C.L.

The steps involved to incorporate parameter uncertainty into the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) accident sequence precursor (ASP) models is covered in this paper. Three different uncertainty distributions (i.e., lognormal, beta, gamma) were evaluated to Determine the most appropriate distribution. From the evaluation, it was Determined that the lognormal distribution will be used for the ASP models uncertainty parameters. Selection of the uncertainty parameters for the basic events is also discussed. This paper covers the process of determining uncertainty parameters for the supercomponent basic events (i.e., basic events that are comprised of more than one component which can have more thanmore » one failure mode) that are utilized in the ASP models. Once this is completed, the ASP model is ready to be utilized to propagate parameter uncertainty for event assessments.« less

Quantitative analysis of factors that affect oil pipeline network accident based on Bayesian networks: A case study in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Chao; Qin, Ting Xin; Huang, Shuai; Wu, Jian Song; Meng, Xin Yan

2018-06-01

Some factors can affect the consequences of oil pipeline accident and their effects should be analyzed to improve emergency preparation and emergency response. Although there are some qualitative analysis models of risk factors' effects, the quantitative analysis model still should be researched. In this study, we introduce a Bayesian network (BN) model of risk factors' effects analysis in an oil pipeline accident case that happened in China. The incident evolution diagram is built to identify the risk factors. And the BN model is built based on the deployment rule for factor nodes in BN and the expert knowledge by Dempster-Shafer evidence theory. Then the probabilities of incident consequences and risk factors' effects can be calculated. The most likely consequences given by this model are consilient with the case. Meanwhile, the quantitative estimations of risk factors' effects may provide a theoretical basis to take optimal risk treatment measures for oil pipeline management, which can be used in emergency preparation and emergency response.

40 CFR 68.165 - Offsite consequence analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... (CONTINUED) CHEMICAL ACCIDENT PREVENTION PROVISIONS Risk Management Plan § 68.165 Offsite consequence... released in pounds; (7) Release rate; (8) Release duration; (9) Wind speed and atmospheric stability class...

40 CFR 68.165 - Offsite consequence analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... (CONTINUED) CHEMICAL ACCIDENT PREVENTION PROVISIONS Risk Management Plan § 68.165 Offsite consequence... released in pounds; (7) Release rate; (8) Release duration; (9) Wind speed and atmospheric stability class...

40 CFR 68.165 - Offsite consequence analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... (CONTINUED) CHEMICAL ACCIDENT PREVENTION PROVISIONS Risk Management Plan § 68.165 Offsite consequence... released in pounds; (7) Release rate; (8) Release duration; (9) Wind speed and atmospheric stability class...

Public Response to a Near-Miss Nuclear Accident Scenario Varying in Causal Attributions and Outcome Uncertainty.

PubMed

Cui, Jinshu; Rosoff, Heather; John, Richard S

2018-05-01

Many studies have investigated public reactions to nuclear accidents. However, few studies focused on more common events when a serious accident could have happened but did not. This study evaluated public response (emotional, cognitive, and behavioral) over three phases of a near-miss nuclear accident. Simulating a loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) scenario, we manipulated (1) attribution for the initial cause of the incident (software failure vs. cyber terrorist attack vs. earthquake), (2) attribution for halting the incident (fail-safe system design vs. an intervention by an individual expert vs. a chance coincidence), and (3) level of uncertainty (certain vs. uncertain) about risk of a future radiation leak after the LOCA is halted. A total of 773 respondents were sampled using a 3 × 3 × 2 between-subjects design. Results from both MANCOVA and structural equation modeling (SEM) indicate that respondents experienced more negative affect, perceived more risk, and expressed more avoidance behavioral intention when the near-miss event was initiated by an external attributed source (e.g., earthquake) compared to an internally attributed source (e.g., software failure). Similarly, respondents also indicated greater negative affect, perceived risk, and avoidance behavioral intentions when the future impact of the near-miss incident on people and the environment remained uncertain. Results from SEM analyses also suggested that negative affect predicted risk perception, and both predicted avoidance behavior. Affect, risk perception, and avoidance behavior demonstrated high stability (i.e., reliability) from one phase to the next. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Denver UASI All-Hazards Regional Recovery Framework. Version 1.1

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-10-31

twenty years later: http://www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/2008/goiania.html IAEA Environmental Consequences of the Chernobyl Accident and Their...findings and recommendations of the Chernobyl Forum concerning the environmental effects of the Chernobyl accident. Recovery Criteria and Guidelines

Construction of an evaluation and selection system of emergency treatment technology based on dynamic fuzzy GRA method for phenol spill

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Jingjing; Yu, Lean; Li, Lian

2017-05-01

There is often a great deal of complexity, fuzziness and uncertainties of the chemical contingency spills. In order to obtain the optimum emergency disposal technology schemes as soon as the chemical pollution accident occurs, the technique evaluation system was developed based on dynamic fuzzy GRA method, and the feasibility of the proposed methods has been tested by using a emergency phenol spill accidence occurred in highway.

[Analisys of work-related accidents and incidents in an oil refinery in Rio de Janeiro].

PubMed

de Souza, Carlos Augusto Vaz; de Freitas, Carlos Machado

2003-01-01

Accidents in the chemical industry can have serious consequences for workers, communities, and the environment and are thus highly relevant to public health. This article is the result of an occupational surveillance project involving several public institutions. We analyze 800 work-related accidents that resulted in injuries, environmental damage, or loss of production in 1997 in an oil refinery located in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The methodology was based on managerial and organizational approaches to accident investigation, with the European Union reporting system as the reference. The results highlight various limitations in the process of reporting and investigating accidents, as well as a certain hierarchy of accidents, with more attention given to accidents involving loss of production and less to those resulting in injuries, particularly among outsourced workers.

The numerical-statistical approach for hazard prediction of landslides and its application in Ukraine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trofimchuk, O.; Kaliukh, Iu.

2012-04-01

More than 90% of the territory of Ukraine has complex ground conditions. Unpredictable changes of natural geological and man-made factors governing ground conditions, may lead to dangerous deformation processes resulting in accidents and disasters. Among them, landslides are the first by the amount of the inflicted damage in Ukraine and the second only to earthquakes in the world. Totally about 23 000 landslides were identified in the territory of Ukraine. The standard deterministic procedure of assessment of the slope stability, especially with the lack of reference engineering geological data, results in obtaining estimated values of stability coefficients differing from the real ones in many cases. Application of a probabilistic approach will allow to take into account the changeable properties of soils and to determine danger and risk of landslide dislocations. The matter of choice of landslide protection measures is directly connected with a risk: expensively but reliably or cheaper but with a great probability of accidents. The risk determines the consequences either economic, social or others, of a potential landslide dislocation on the slope both during construction of a retaining structure on it and in the process of its further maintenance. The quintessence of risk determination consists in the following: study and extrapolation of the past events for each specific occurrence. Expected conclusions and probable damages as a result of a calculated and accepted risk can be determined only with a certain level of uncertainty. Considering this fact improvement of the accuracy of numerical and analytical estimates when calculating the risk magnitude makes it possible to reduce the uncertainty. Calculations of the Chernivtsi shear landslides (Ukraine) were made with an application of Plaxis software and due account of a risk of its displacement was performed for the typical distribution diagram of the landslide-prone slope. The calculations showed that seismic events of intensity up to 6 points are able to significantly impair the characteristics of soil along the sliding surface and affect the slope stability and the value of landslide pressure onto supporting buildings. The further improvement of the site seismicity (up to 7-8 points) results in the substantial decrease of the stability coefficient. The slope, which firstly was stable, turns into a limiting equilibrium state, and then its state becomes unstable. Based on the calculation results, it is possible to follow step-by-step the process of stress redistribution in the landslide slope with its seismicity increase, which eventually causes the slope motion (unloading of accumulated stresses). Measures of landslide risk management are aimed at ensuring and maintaining acceptable or in some case an allowable risk level. In addition to calculations of soil masses stability, parameters of structures, creation of drawings and making of estimates, it is also necessary to take measures aimed at compensation of uncertainties and prevention of unforeseen situations due to incomplete (unreliable) surveys, etc. Depending on the initial situation or requirements the landslide risk management is to solve the following three problems: prevention of negative consequences; reduction of danger and risk; rectification of consequences, and prevention of a new danger development.

[Medical protection during radiation accidents: some results and lessons of the Chernobyl accident].

PubMed

Legeza, V I; Grebeniuk, A N; Zatsepin, V V

2011-01-01

Actions of medical radiation protection of liquidators of consequences of on Chernobyl atomic power station accident are analysed. It is shown, that during the early period of the accident medical protection of liquidators was provided by administration of radioprotectors, means of prophylaxis: of radioactive iodine incorporation and agent for preventing psychological and emotional stress. When carrying out decontamination and regenerative works, preparations which action is caused by increase of nonspecific resistance of an organism were applied. The lessons taken from the results of the Chernobyl accident, have allowed one to improve the system of medical protection and to introduce in practice new highly effective radioprotective agents.

CPLOAS_2 user manual

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sallaberry, Cedric Jean-Marie.; Helton, Jon Craig

2012-10-01

Weak link (WL)/strong link (SL) systems are important parts of the overall operational design of high-consequence systems. In such designs, the SL system is very robust and is intended to permit operation of the entire system under, and only under, intended conditions. In contrast, the WL system is intended to fail in a predictable and irreversible manner under accident conditions and render the entire system inoperable before an accidental operation of the SL system. The likelihood that the WL system will fail to deactivate the entire system before the SL system fails (i.e., degrades into a configuration that could allowmore » an accidental operation of the entire system) is referred to as probability of loss of assured safety (PLOAS). This report describes the Fortran 90 program CPLOAS_2 that implements the following representations for PLOAS for situations in which both link physical properties and link failure properties are time-dependent: (i) failure of all SLs before failure of any WL, (ii) failure of any SL before failure of any WL, (iii) failure of all SLs before failure of all WLs, and (iv) failure of any SL before failure of all WLs. The effects of aleatory uncertainty and epistemic uncertainty in the definition and numerical evaluation of PLOAS can be included in the calculations performed by CPLOAS_2.« less

[Accidents at work and occupational diseases trend in agriculture insurance management. The contribution of INAIL data's for the knowledge of a worrying phenomenon].

PubMed

Calandriello, Luigi; Goggiamani, Angela; Ienzi, Emanuela; Naldini, Silvia; Orsini, Dario

2013-01-01

The author's describe accidents at work and occupational diseases outcome's measure in Agricolture insurance management acquired through statistical approach based on data processing provided by INAIL Bank data. Accident's incidence in Agricolture is compared to main insurance managements, using frequency index of accidents appearance selected on line of work and type of consequence. Concerning occupational diseases the authors describes the complaints and compensation with the comparison referring the analysis to statistical general data. The data define a worrying phenomenon.

[Genetic effects in the liquidators of consequences of Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant accident].

PubMed

Liaginskaia, A M; Tukov, A R; Osipov, V A; Prokhorova, O N

2007-01-01

The purpose of the present research was the estimation of probable genetic consequences at the liquidators of the consequences of Chernobyl accident in 1986-1987. The research is made on two groups of the liquidators. The first group included the liquidators taking place on the account in the branch register and working now at the enterprises of a nuclear industry. The second group included 902 liquidators of consequences of Chernobyl accident in 1986 constantly living in the Ryazan area and which are taking place on permanent observation the account in regional hospital. For an estimation of probable genetic effects analyzed the data on frequency and outcomes pregnancy of the wives of the liquidators, on condition and on diseases of newborn, on switching intrauterine development defects (IDD). The analysis carried out depending on dozes of an irradiation: up to 5 cGy; 5-10 cGy and 10-25 cGy. Received materials testify, that at the liquidators, at a doze of an external irradiation 10-25 cGy, the determined effects--period long sterility, kept at a part them till 3 years come to light. The set of the received data, such as depending from the dose increase of frequency of spontaneous abortions and of inherent defects of development of newborn, the increase of frequency diseases of newborn and share newborn with low weight, allows to make a conclusion about an induction of genetic effects in sexual cells of the liquidators of consequences of Chernobyl accident at dozes of an external irradiation more than 10 cGy. Taking into account high biological efficiency of alpha-radiation (K = 20), and of beta-radiation (K = 2-4), the equivalent effective doze male gonads (testes) in 3-5 times is higher, than estimated only from external gamma-radiation.

Immunogenetic Approach to Prognosis of Military Specialists’ Health Status

DTIC Science & Technology

2001-05-01

of Ukraine which have been polluted with radionuclides deposited as a consequence of the Chernobyl Atomic Power Station accident. Therefore, an...tendency to the development of immunodeficiency was typical for participants who took part in the cleanup operations following the Chernobyl accident. This

Accidents on hospital wards.

PubMed Central

Levene, S; Bonfield, G

1991-01-01

Eight hospitals reported 781 non-iatrogenic accidents occurring to patients and visitors under 16 years of age during an 18 month period up to October 1989. Accidents more often involved boys and children aged 3 to 5 years old. Falls from a height, slips, and striking accidents were common by day and falls by night. A total of 41% of accidents to inpatients occurred when parents were present. Only three accidents were serious. Altogether 27% involved beds and cots, and only one consequent injury was more than minor. Data collected routinely in case of medicolegal action can be presented in a form that may facilitate preventative work. Potentially remediable causes for concern include falls from beds and cots and the use of makeshift equipment. PMID:1929510

Analysis on tank truck accidents involved in road hazardous materials transportation in china.

PubMed

Shen, Xiaoyan; Yan, Ying; Li, Xiaonan; Xie, Chenjiang; Wang, Lihua

2014-01-01

Due to the sheer size and capacity of the tanker and the properties of cargo transported in the tank, hazmat tanker accidents are more disastrous than other types of vehicle accidents. The aim of this study was to provide a current survey on the situation of accidents involving tankers transporting hazardous materials in China. Detailed descriptions of 708 tanker accidents associated with hazmat transportation in China from 2004 to 2011 were analyzed to identify causes, location, types, time of occurrence, hazard class for materials involved, consequences, and the corresponding probability. Hazmat tanker accidents mainly occurred in eastern (38.1%) and southwest China (12.3%). The most frequent hazmat tanker accidents involved classes 2, 3, and 8. The predominant accident types were rollover (29.10%), run-off-the-road (16.67%), and rear-end collisions (13.28%), with a high likelihood of a large spill occurring. About 55.93% of the accidents occurred on freeways and class 1 roads, with the spill percentage reaching 75.00% and the proportion of spills that occurred in the total accidents amounting to 77.82%, of which 61.72% are considered large spills. The month with the highest accident probability was July (12.29%), and most crashes occurred during the early morning (4:00-6:00 a.m.) and midday (10:00 a.m.-12:00 p.m.) hours, 19.63% versus 16.10%. Human-related errors (73.8%) and vehicle-related defects (19.6%) were the primary reasons for hazmat tanker crashes. The most common outcomes of a hazmat tanker accident was a spill without further events (55.51%), followed by a release with fire (7.77%), and release with an explosion (2.54%). The safety situation of China's hazmat tanker transportation is grim. Such accidents not only have high spill percentages and consistently large spills but they can also cause serious consequences, such as fires and explosions. Improving the training of drivers and the quality of vehicles, deploying roll stability aids, enhancing vehicle inspection and maintenance, and developing good delivery schedules may all be considered effective measures for mitigating hazmat tanker accidents, especially severe crashes.

Offsite radiological consequence analysis for the bounding flammable gas accident

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

CARRO, C.A.

2003-03-19

The purpose of this analysis is to calculate the offsite radiological consequence of the bounding flammable gas accident. DOE-STD-3009-94, ''Preparation Guide for U.S. Department of Energy Nonreactor Nuclear Facility Documented Safety Analyses'', requires the formal quantification of a limited subset of accidents representing a complete set of bounding conditions. The results of these analyses are then evaluated to determine if they challenge the DOE-STD-3009-94, Appendix A, ''Evaluation Guideline,'' of 25 rem total effective dose equivalent in order to identify and evaluate safety class structures, systems, and components. The bounding flammable gas accident is a detonation in a single-shell tank (SST).more » A detonation versus a deflagration was selected for analysis because the faster flame speed of a detonation can potentially result in a larger release of respirable material. As will be shown, the consequences of a detonation in either an SST or a double-shell tank (DST) are approximately equal. A detonation in an SST was selected as the bounding condition because the estimated respirable release masses are the same and because the doses per unit quantity of waste inhaled are generally greater for SSTs than for DSTs. Appendix A contains a DST analysis for comparison purposes.« less

[Radiobiology and the lessons of Chernobyl].

PubMed

Baraboĭ, V A

1990-01-01

The Chernobyl accident has marked the beginning of a new stage of radiobiology development and revealed scantiness of old concepts. One should (1) search for effective protectors against the long-term influence of low-level radiation and means of removal of radionuclides using criteria that differ principally from those used previously in selecting among nontoxic antioxidants, immunomodulators, and adaptogens; (2) study systematically the synergism of low doses of harmful agents and review the hygienic standardization system with due regard for the risk from their combinations; (3) consider comprehensively, on the basis of the experimental and clinical experience, the problem of "hot" particles and remote consequences of their influence on the respiratory and digestive systems; (4) study independently the problem of chronic stress as a combination of radiation effects and psycho-emotional consequences of the accident and living in the exposed areas; (5) consider it inadmissible to include in the B category the population of the districts influenced by the accident and to use the concept: "35 rads during the lifetime" in standardizing the radiation load; (6) organize a comprehensive analysis of the Chernobyl accident consequences for public health within the contaminated areas as well as for animals and plants using a single approved methodology and programme, the principle of "other equal conditions" being provided.

A Practical Approach to Address Uncertainty in Stakeholder Deliberations.

PubMed

Gregory, Robin; Keeney, Ralph L

2017-03-01

This article addresses the difficulties of incorporating uncertainty about consequence estimates as part of stakeholder deliberations involving multiple alternatives. Although every prediction of future consequences necessarily involves uncertainty, a large gap exists between common practices for addressing uncertainty in stakeholder deliberations and the procedures of prescriptive decision-aiding models advanced by risk and decision analysts. We review the treatment of uncertainty at four main phases of the deliberative process: with experts asked to describe possible consequences of competing alternatives, with stakeholders who function both as individuals and as members of coalitions, with the stakeholder committee composed of all stakeholders, and with decisionmakers. We develop and recommend a model that uses certainty equivalents as a theoretically robust and practical approach for helping diverse stakeholders to incorporate uncertainties when evaluating multiple-objective alternatives as part of public policy decisions. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Less than severe worst case accidents

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sanders, G.A.

1996-08-01

Many systems can provide tremendous benefit if operating correctly, produce only an inconvenience if they fail to operate, but have extreme consequences if they are only partially disabled such that they operate erratically or prematurely. In order to assure safety, systems are often tested against the most severe environments and accidents that are considered possible to ensure either safe operation or safe failure. However, it is often the less severe environments which result in the ``worst case accident`` since these are the conditions in which part of the system may be exposed or rendered unpredictable prior to total system failure.more » Some examples of less severe mechanical, thermal, and electrical environments which may actually be worst case are described as cautions for others in industries with high consequence operations or products.« less

Uncertainty Analysis of Consequence Management (CM) Data Products.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hunt, Brian D.; Eckert-Gallup, Aubrey Celia; Cochran, Lainy Dromgoole

The goal of this project is to develop and execute methods for characterizing uncertainty in data products that are deve loped and distributed by the DOE Consequence Management (CM) Program. A global approach to this problem is necessary because multiple sources of error and uncertainty from across the CM skill sets contribute to the ultimate p roduction of CM data products. This report presents the methods used to develop a probabilistic framework to characterize this uncertainty and provides results for an uncertainty analysis for a study scenario analyzed using this framework.

The analysis outlining the occurrence and consequences of accidents in the work environment of the firefighters employed by the State Fire Service in Poland in 2008-2013.

PubMed

Pawlak, Agata; Gotlib, Joanna; Gałązkowski, Robert

2016-01-01

Due to the specifics of their work and to being exposed to a wide range of hazards, firefighters working for the State Fire Service (SFS) face the risk of work-related accidents more often than members of other occupational groups. The aim of this paper is to analyze the occurrence and consequences of accidents in the work environment of the SFS officers in Poland between the years 2008-2013. The material analyzed is based on aggregate data collected by the Headquarters of the State Fire Service. Figures regarding accidents in the period between 1 January 2008 and 31 December 2013 show that 8518 work-related accidents occurred in that period and 8635 people were injured. The data shows that neither the number of accidents nor their frequency indicator underwent any significant fluctuations over the 6 years under consideration. The group that is most exposed to accidents on duty in the profession includes active firefighters serving in rescue and fire extinguishment divisions. According to the data, the greatest number of trauma incidents in the SFS between the years 2008-2013 occurred during sporting activities. The predominant cause of these was inappropriate behavior or the lack of proper care. The most frequent injuries sustained during the accidents were broken or fractured bones and sprained joints. Accidents on duty occur significantly more often when firefighters are at their stations, during sporting classes, exercises or maneuvers, than in the course of actual rescue operations. The firefighters of the State Fire Services are insufficiently prepared for their sporting activities. This work is available in Open Access model and licensed under a CC BY-NC 3.0 PL license.

[Study on standards for safe and health-protective zone in firework plant].

PubMed

Wu, Y; Wang, Q; Shi, J; Shao, Q

1999-03-30

A retrospective investigation on technology and situation in the production of fireworks, the cause and hazard consequences of accidents in blossom firework enterprises was carried out. The risk factors and their origins, the potential effects on surrounding environments and residents, the manufacture processes producing special potential energy in these enterprises were summarized and assessed. In addition, the consequences of explosive fire accidents were assessed retrospectively by the principle of explosion mechanics and Hopkinson Scaling Law. The safe and health-protective zone of the blossom firework plant was suggested.

An Approach for Assessing Consequences of Potential Supply Chain and Insider Contributed Cyber Attacks on Nuclear Power Plants

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chu, Tsong-Lun; Varuttamaseni, Athi; Baek, Joo-Seok

This paper provides an approach for developing potential attacks on I and C systems of NPPs and assessing their consequences. An important concept is that the NPPs were not designed to cope with Stuxnet-type of attacks (and any other cyber attacks). That is, the plants were only designed for design basis accidents. The safety margins and redundancies built in the design are all based on design basis accidents. They may be helpful in mitigating cyberattacks, but may not be adequate.

Communicating Geographical Risks in Crisis Management: The Need for Research.

PubMed

French, Simon; Argyris, Nikolaos; Haywood, Stephanie M; Hort, Matthew C; Smith, Jim Q

2017-10-23

In any crisis, there is a great deal of uncertainty, often geographical uncertainty or, more precisely, spatiotemporal uncertainty. Examples include the spread of contamination from an industrial accident, drifting volcanic ash, and the path of a hurricane. Estimating spatiotemporal probabilities is usually a difficult task, but that is not our primary concern. Rather, we ask how analysts can communicate spatiotemporal uncertainty to those handling the crisis. We comment on the somewhat limited literature on the representation of spatial uncertainty on maps. We note that many cognitive issues arise and that the potential for confusion is high. We note that in the early stages of handling a crisis, the uncertainties involved may be deep, i.e., difficult or impossible to quantify in the time available. In such circumstance, we suggest the idea of presenting multiple scenarios. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Best estimate plus uncertainty analysis of departure from nucleate boiling limiting case with CASL core simulator VERA-CS in response to PWR main steam line break event

DOE PAGES

Brown, Cameron S.; Zhang, Hongbin; Kucukboyaci, Vefa; ...

2016-09-07

VERA-CS (Virtual Environment for Reactor Applications, Core Simulator) is a coupled neutron transport and thermal-hydraulics subchannel code under development by the Consortium for Advanced Simulation of Light Water Reactors (CASL). VERA-CS was used to simulate a typical pressurized water reactor (PWR) full core response with 17x17 fuel assemblies for a main steam line break (MSLB) accident scenario with the most reactive rod cluster control assembly stuck out of the core. The accident scenario was initiated at the hot zero power (HZP) at the end of the first fuel cycle with return to power state points that were determined by amore » system analysis code and the most limiting state point was chosen for core analysis. The best estimate plus uncertainty (BEPU) analysis method was applied using Wilks’ nonparametric statistical approach. In this way, 59 full core simulations were performed to provide the minimum departure from nucleate boiling ratio (MDNBR) at the 95/95 (95% probability with 95% confidence level) tolerance limit. The results show that this typical PWR core remains within MDNBR safety limits for the MSLB accident.« less

Best estimate plus uncertainty analysis of departure from nucleate boiling limiting case with CASL core simulator VERA-CS in response to PWR main steam line break event

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brown, Cameron S.; Zhang, Hongbin; Kucukboyaci, Vefa

VERA-CS (Virtual Environment for Reactor Applications, Core Simulator) is a coupled neutron transport and thermal-hydraulics subchannel code under development by the Consortium for Advanced Simulation of Light Water Reactors (CASL). VERA-CS was used to simulate a typical pressurized water reactor (PWR) full core response with 17x17 fuel assemblies for a main steam line break (MSLB) accident scenario with the most reactive rod cluster control assembly stuck out of the core. The accident scenario was initiated at the hot zero power (HZP) at the end of the first fuel cycle with return to power state points that were determined by amore » system analysis code and the most limiting state point was chosen for core analysis. The best estimate plus uncertainty (BEPU) analysis method was applied using Wilks’ nonparametric statistical approach. In this way, 59 full core simulations were performed to provide the minimum departure from nucleate boiling ratio (MDNBR) at the 95/95 (95% probability with 95% confidence level) tolerance limit. The results show that this typical PWR core remains within MDNBR safety limits for the MSLB accident.« less

Social and psychological state of the Chornobyl clean up workers. Risk factors for negative changes.

PubMed

Buzunov, V O; Loganovsky, K N; Krasnikova, L I; Bomko, M O; Belyaev, Yu M; Yaroshenko, Zh S; Domashevska, T Ye

2016-12-01

It is generally recognized that the Chornobyl nuclear accident caused strong psychosocial stress affecting the entire population of Ukraine, primarily people involved in recovery operations. But what are the reasons? What is the struc ture of stressors? What are their social, medical and biological consequences, what are strategy and preventive meas ures? Issues that require special research and development. To study social and psychological state of the Chornobyl cleanup workers 1986-1987, and to determine regularities of changes and dangerous risk factors. On the basis of Polyclinic of Radiation Registry, NRCRM, we conducted sample epidemiolog ical study of social and psychological state of the Chornobyl clean up workers 1986-1987. We used method of inter viewing based on «questionnaire», specially developed for this purpose. The study was conducted in October 2013 - May 2015. The sample numbered 235 males aged 18-50 at the time of the accident. Their average age was (31.3 ± 5.3) years at the time of the accident and (58.9 ± 5.3) at the time of survey. The results revealed that the Chornobyl nuclear accident and its consequences caused strong social and psychological stress among clean up workers 1986-1987. We have identified a set of factors closely related to the Chornobyl accident, they have caused a sustainable development of mental syndrome - «Anxiety about their own health and the health of family members, especially children». The other set of stressors which are not closely relat ed to the Chornobyl accident but are the result of the social and economic, social and political situation in the coun try. However the former was found to be the cause of such a psychological state as «dissatisfaction with the com pleteness and quality of life». Social and psychological state of the Chornobyl clean up workers 1986-1987 is estimated as «poor» and it integrally can be characterized as a state of chronic psychosocial stress. Mental syndrome «Anxiety about per sonal health and the health of family members» and psychological syndrome «Dissatisfaction with living condi tions» are main consequences of this state. We identified the main stressors closely related to the consequences of the Chornobyl accident as well as those that are not related to the accident but affect profoundly the level of men tal, social and physical well being. Results of the research are of great importance in organization and provision of social, medical and antiradiation protection of population under emergency situations involving radiation exposure. Key words: Chornobyl accident, clean up workers, social and psychological state, risk factors. V. О. Buzunov, K. N. Loganovsky, L. I. Krasnikova, M. O. Bomko, Yu. M. Belyaev, Zh. S. Yaroshenko, T. Ye. Domashevska.

Medical and health surveillance in postaccident recovery: experience after Fukushima.

PubMed

Tanigawa, K

2018-01-01

The accident at Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant occurred following the huge tsunami and earthquake of 11 March 2011. After the accident, there was considerable uncertainty and concern about the health effects of radiation. In this difficult situation, emergency responses, including large-scale evacuation, were implemented. The Fukushima Health Management Survey (FHMS) was initiated 3 months after the accident. The primary purposes of FHMS were to monitor the long-term health of residents, promote their well-being, and monitor any health effects related to long-term, low-dose radiation exposure. Despite the severity of the Fukushima accident and the huge impact of the natural disaster, radiation exposure of the public was very low. However, there were other serious health problems, including deaths during evacuation, increased mortality among displaced elderly people, mental health and lifestyle-related health problems, and social issues after the accident. The Nuclear Emergency Situations - Improvement of Medical and Health Surveillance (SHAMISEN) project, funded by the Open Project For European Radiation Research Area, aimed to develop recommendations for medical and health surveillance of populations affected by previous and future radiation accidents. This paper briefly introduces the points that have been learned from the Fukushima accident from the perspective of SHAMISEN recommendations.

Economic and cultural correlates of road-traffic accident fatality rates in OECD countries.

PubMed

Gaygisiz, Esma

2009-10-01

The relationships between economic conditions, cultural characteristics, personality dimensions, intelligence scores, and road-traffic accident mortality rates were investigated in 30 member and five accession countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). Economic indicators included the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita, the unemployment rate, and the Gini index. Cultural variables included five Hofstede's cultural dimensions, seven Schwartz cultural value dimensions, NEO-PI-R scales, and the intelligence quotient (IQ). The results showed positive associations between favorable economic conditions (high income per capita, high employment rate, and low income inequality) and high traffic safety. Countries with higher road-traffic accident fatality rates were characterized by higher power distance and uncertainty avoidance as well as embeddedness and emphasis on social hierarchy. Countries with lower road-traffic accident fatality rates were more individualistic, egalitarian, and emphasized autonomy of individuals. Conscientiousness (from NEO-PI-R) and IQ correlated negatively with road-traffic accident fatalities.

Occupational accidents in the Netherlands: incidence, mental harm, and their relationship with psychosocial factors at work.

PubMed

van der Klauw, Marloes; Hengel, Karen Oude; Roozeboom, Maartje Bakhuys; Koppes, Lando L; Venema, Anita

2016-01-01

This study investigated the incidence of mental harm due to occupational accidents and the relation between psychosocial factors at work and the occurrence of occupational accidents in the Netherlands for the construction industry and health and welfare sector. Analyses revealed that occupational accidents in the construction industry more often involved physical harm, whereas accidents in the health and welfare sector relatively more often resulted in mental harm, in comparison to other sectors. Results showed that psychosocial factors were associated with occupational accidents in both sectors. For the construction industry, high time pressure and exposure to violence and harassment by colleagues or supervisors were associated with occupational accidents. For the health and welfare sector, low autonomy and exposure to violence and harassment by colleagues or supervisors or by people outside the organization were associated with occupational accidents. The present paper stresses the importance of also taking psychological consequences and psychosocial factors at work into account in assessing the occurrence of occupational accidents.

Probabilistic risk assessment for a loss of coolant accident in McMaster Nuclear Reactor and application of reliability physics model for modeling human reliability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ha, Taesung

A probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) was conducted for a loss of coolant accident, (LOCA) in the McMaster Nuclear Reactor (MNR). A level 1 PRA was completed including event sequence modeling, system modeling, and quantification. To support the quantification of the accident sequence identified, data analysis using the Bayesian method and human reliability analysis (HRA) using the accident sequence evaluation procedure (ASEP) approach were performed. Since human performance in research reactors is significantly different from that in power reactors, a time-oriented HRA model (reliability physics model) was applied for the human error probability (HEP) estimation of the core relocation. This model is based on two competing random variables: phenomenological time and performance time. The response surface and direct Monte Carlo simulation with Latin Hypercube sampling were applied for estimating the phenomenological time, whereas the performance time was obtained from interviews with operators. An appropriate probability distribution for the phenomenological time was assigned by statistical goodness-of-fit tests. The human error probability (HEP) for the core relocation was estimated from these two competing quantities: phenomenological time and operators' performance time. The sensitivity of each probability distribution in human reliability estimation was investigated. In order to quantify the uncertainty in the predicted HEPs, a Bayesian approach was selected due to its capability of incorporating uncertainties in model itself and the parameters in that model. The HEP from the current time-oriented model was compared with that from the ASEP approach. Both results were used to evaluate the sensitivity of alternative huinan reliability modeling for the manual core relocation in the LOCA risk model. This exercise demonstrated the applicability of a reliability physics model supplemented with a. Bayesian approach for modeling human reliability and its potential usefulness of quantifying model uncertainty as sensitivity analysis in the PRA model.

[Clinical resulting risks in the persons injured in the traffic accident depending on the role and position in the traffic].

PubMed

Hur'iev, S O; Chundak, S S; Satsyk, S P

2013-03-01

Clinical resulting risks of the abdominal organs trauma in the injured persons, as a consequence of a traffic accident, constitute an important component of multicomponent polysystem trauma for the sign of taking part in a traffic.

The Ekofisk Accident Its Environmental and Political Implications

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wallenberg, Bengt

1977-01-01

The information collected from the accident at the Ekofisk offshore oil field is used to examine the environmental consequences and the costs of marine oil pollution. As offshore drillings increase throughout the world, there is a need for more information on this pollution problem and for more cooperation among nations. (MA)

Societal and ethical aspects of the Fukushima accident.

PubMed

Oughton, Deborah

2016-10-01

The Fukushima Nuclear Power Station accident in Japan in 2011 was a poignant reminder that radioactive contamination of the environment has consequences that encompass far more than health risks from exposure to radiation. Both the accident and remediation measures have resulted in serious societal impacts and raise questions about the ethical aspects of risk management. This article presents a brief review of some of these issues and compares similarities and differences with the lessons learned from the 1986 Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant accident in Ukraine. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2016;12:651-653. © 2016 SETAC. © 2016 SETAC.

[Mortality in traffic accidents in Bayamo, Cuba 2011].

PubMed

Piña-Tornés, Arlines; González-Longoria, Lourdes; González-Pardo, Secundino; Acosta-González, Ariel; Vintimilla-Burgos, Patricio; Paspuel-Yar, Silvana

2014-01-01

With the objective of describing mortality from traffic accidents in Bayamo, Cuba, in 2011 a review was performed of injured and deceased patients due to traffic accidents, recorded in the Hospital Carlos M. de Céspedes. Of the 1,365 injured patients treated in the emergency room, the predominant groups were individuals aged 25 to 44 years comprising 372 patients (27.3%) and men comprising 1,071 (78.5%). 46 people died, most from the same age group and male. Multiple traumatisms (52.6%) and craniofacial trauma (34.2%) were the predominant injuries. Motor vehicle-pedestrian accidents stood out with a mortality of 26.3%. In conclusion, mortality from traffic accidents predominately occurs in young male adults, whose fatal consequences are due to multiple traumatisms from road accidents.

[Health-related quality of life of people with severe traumatic injury: a longitudinal study using the SF-36 health survey].

PubMed

Bauer, J; Beck, B; Wandl, U

2013-06-01

Even though 85 percent of those who have been severely injured in an accident in Germany survive, complex and serious long-term consequences are still a major problem not only for health and care insurance providers but also for the accident victims themselves because their quality of life is affected permanently. Therefore the aim of the current study is to identify factors that significantly improve the quality of life after a severe traumatic injury and to investigate whether the support by a reintegration service has a positive effect on the victims' quality of life. The sample consisted of severely injured accident victims who were supported by a reintegration service. The data collection comprised three data points. At every data point the SF-36 questionnaire was used to assess the participants' quality of life. The results indicate that an individual medical-vocational support by a reintegration service has the potential to significantly and stably improve the physical aspects of quality of life, even if the accident dates back several years. Furthermore it appears to be important to support the independence of the accident victims because assistance by a third person correlates with a lower degree of physical quality of life, regardless of severity or type of injury. Moreover it becomes clear that it is important to pay more attention to the treatment of psychological consequences of severe accidents.

Accident history, risk perception and traffic safe behaviour.

PubMed

Ngueutsa, Robert; Kouabenan, Dongo Rémi

2017-09-01

This study clarifies the associations between accident history, perception of the riskiness of road travel and traffic safety behaviours by taking into account the number and severity of accidents experienced. A sample of 525 road users in Cameroon answered a questionnaire comprising items on perception of risk, safe behaviour and personal accident history. Participants who reported involvement in more than three accidents or involvement in a severe accident perceived road travel as less risky and also reported behaving less safely compared with those involved in fewer, or less severe accidents. The results have practical implications for the prevention of traffic accidents. Practitioner Summary: The associations between accident history, perceived risk of road travel and safe behaviour were investigated using self-report questionnaire data. Participants involved in more than three accidents, or in severe accidents, perceived road travel as less risky and also reported more unsafe behaviour compared with those involved in fewer, or less severe accidents. Campaigns targeting people with a less serious, less extensive accident history should aim to increase awareness of hazards and the potential severity of their consequences, as well as emphasising how easy it is to take the recommended preventive actions. Campaigns targeting those involved in more frequent accidents, and survivors of serious accidents, should address feelings of invulnerability and helplessness.

Predicted spatio-temporal dynamics of radiocesium deposited onto forests following the Fukushima nuclear accident

PubMed Central

Hashimoto, Shoji; Matsuura, Toshiya; Nanko, Kazuki; Linkov, Igor; Shaw, George; Kaneko, Shinji

2013-01-01

The majority of the area contaminated by the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant accident is covered by forest. To facilitate effective countermeasure strategies to mitigate forest contamination, we simulated the spatio-temporal dynamics of radiocesium deposited into Japanese forest ecosystems in 2011 using a model that was developed after the Chernobyl accident in 1986. The simulation revealed that the radiocesium inventories in tree and soil surface organic layer components drop rapidly during the first two years after the fallout. Over a period of one to two years, the radiocesium is predicted to move from the tree and surface organic soil to the mineral soil, which eventually becomes the largest radiocesium reservoir within forest ecosystems. Although the uncertainty of our simulations should be considered, the results provide a basis for understanding and anticipating the future dynamics of radiocesium in Japanese forests following the Fukushima accident. PMID:23995073

Pattern extraction for high-risk accidents in the construction industry: a data-mining approach.

PubMed

Amiri, Mehran; Ardeshir, Abdollah; Fazel Zarandi, Mohammad Hossein; Soltanaghaei, Elahe

2016-09-01

Accidents involving falls and falling objects (group I) are highly frequent accidents in the construction industry. While being hit by a vehicle, electric shock, collapse in the excavation and fire or explosion accidents (group II) are much less frequent, they make up a considerable proportion of severe accidents. In this study, multiple-correspondence analysis, decision tree, ensembles of decision tree and association rules methods are employed to analyse a database of construction accidents throughout Iran between 2007 and 2011. The findings indicate that in group I, there is a significant correspondence among these variables: time of accident, place of accident, body part affected, final consequence of accident and lost workdays. Moreover, the frequency of accidents in the night shift is less than others, and the frequency of injury to the head, back, spine and limbs are more. In group II, the variables time of accident and body part affected are mostly related and the frequency of accidents among married and older workers is more than single and young workers. There was a higher frequency in the evening, night shifts and weekends. The results of this study are totally in line with the previous research.

Historical analysis of US pipeline accidents triggered by natural hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Girgin, Serkan; Krausmann, Elisabeth

2015-04-01

Natural hazards, such as earthquakes, floods, landslides, or lightning, can initiate accidents in oil and gas pipelines with potentially major consequences on the population or the environment due to toxic releases, fires and explosions. Accidents of this type are also referred to as Natech events. Many major accidents highlight the risk associated with natural-hazard impact on pipelines transporting dangerous substances. For instance, in the USA in 1994, flooding of the San Jacinto River caused the rupture of 8 and the undermining of 29 pipelines by the floodwaters. About 5.5 million litres of petroleum and related products were spilled into the river and ignited. As a results, 547 people were injured and significant environmental damage occurred. Post-incident analysis is a valuable tool for better understanding the causes, dynamics and impacts of pipeline Natech accidents in support of future accident prevention and mitigation. Therefore, data on onshore hazardous-liquid pipeline accidents collected by the US Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA) was analysed. For this purpose, a database-driven incident data analysis system was developed to aid the rapid review and categorization of PHMSA incident reports. Using an automated data-mining process followed by a peer review of the incident records and supported by natural hazard databases and external information sources, the pipeline Natechs were identified. As a by-product of the data-collection process, the database now includes over 800,000 incidents from all causes in industrial and transportation activities, which are automatically classified in the same way as the PHMSA record. This presentation describes the data collection and reviewing steps conducted during the study, provides information on the developed database and data analysis tools, and reports the findings of a statistical analysis of the identified hazardous liquid pipeline incidents in terms of accident dynamics and consequences.

Preliminary results of consequence assessment of a hypothetical severe accident using Thai meteorological data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silva, K.; Lawawirojwong, S.; Promping, J.

2017-06-01

Consequence assessment of a hypothetical severe accident is one of the important elements of the risk assessment of a nuclear power plant. It is widely known that the meteorological conditions can significantly influence the outcomes of such assessment, since it determines the results of the calculation of the radionuclide environmental transport. This study aims to assess the impacts of the meteorological conditions to the results of the consequence assessment. The consequence assessment code, OSCAAR, of Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA) is used for the assessment. The results of the consequence assessment using Thai meteorological data are compared with those using Japanese meteorological data. The Thai case has following characteristics. Low wind speed made the radionuclides concentrate at the center comparing to the Japanese case. The squalls induced the peaks in the ground concentration distribution. The evacuated land is larger than the Japanese case though the relocated land is smaller, which is attributed to the concentration of the radionuclides near the release point.

Individual dose due to radioactivity accidental release from fusion reactor.

PubMed

Nie, Baojie; Ni, Muyi; Wei, Shiping

2017-04-05

As an important index shaping the design of fusion safety system, evaluation of public radiation consequences have risen as a hot topic on the way to develop fusion energy. In this work, the comprehensive public early dose was evaluated due to unit gram tritium (HT/HTO), activated dust, activated corrosion products (ACPs) and activated gases accidental release from ITER like fusion reactor. Meanwhile, considering that we cannot completely eliminate the occurrence likelihood of multi-failure of vacuum vessel and tokamak building, we conservatively evaluated the public radiation consequences and environment restoration after the worst hypothetical accident preliminarily. The comparison results show early dose of different unit radioactivity release under different conditions. After further performing the radiation consequences, we find it possible that the hypothetical accident for ITER like fusion reactor would result in a level 6 accident according to INES, not appear level 7 like Chernobyl or Fukushima accidents. And from the point of environment restoration, we need at least 69 years for case 1 (1kg HTO and 1000kg dust release) and 34-52years for case 2 (1kg HTO and 10kg-100kg dust release) to wait the contaminated zone drop below the general public safety limit (1mSv per year) before it is suitable for human habitation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Gilbert W. Beebe Symposium on 30 Years after the Chernobyl Accident: Current and Future Studies on Radiation Health Effects.

PubMed

Samet, Jonathan M; de González, Amy Berrington; Dauer, Lawrence T; Hatch, Maureen; Kosti, Ourania; Mettler, Fred A; Satyamitra, Merriline M

2018-01-01

This commentary summarizes the presentations and discussions from the 2016 Gilbert W. Beebe symposium "30 years after the Chernobyl accident: Current and future studies on radiation health effects." The symposium was hosted by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (the National Academies). The symposium focused on the health consequences of the Chernobyl accident, looking retrospectively at what has been learned and prospectively at potential future discoveries using emerging 21st Century research methodologies.

[Analysis of radiation-hygienic and medical consequences of the Chernobyl accident].

PubMed

Onishchenko, G G

2013-01-01

Since the day of "the Chernobyl accident" in 1986 more than 25 years have been past. Radioactively contaminated areas 14 subjects of the Russian Federation with a total area of more than 50 thousand km2, where 1.5 million people now reside were exposed to radioactive contamination. Currently, a system of comprehensive evaluation of radiation doses of the population affected by the "Chernobyl accidents", including 11 guidance documents has been created. There are methodically provided works on the assessment of average annual, accumulated and predicted radiation doses of population and its critical groups, as well as doses to the thyroid gland The relevance of the analysis of the consequences of the "Chernobyl accident" is demonstrated by the events in Japan, at nuclear power Fukusima-1. In 2011 - 20/2 there were carried out comprehensive maritime expeditions under the auspices of the Russian Geographical Society with the participation of relevant ministries and agencies, leading academic institutions in Russia. In 2012, work was carried out on radiation protection of the population from the potential transboundary impact of the accident at the Japanese nuclear power plant Fukushima-l. The results provide a basis for the favorable outlook for the radiation environment in our Far East and the Pacific coast of Russia.

Nuclear power and probabilistic safety assessment (PSA): past through future applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stamatelatos, M. G.; Moieni, P.; Everline, C. J.

1995-03-01

Nuclear power reactor safety in the United States is about to enter a new era -- an era of risk- based management and risk-based regulation. First, there was the age of `prescribed safety assessment,' during which a series of design-basis accidents in eight categories of severity, or classes, were postulated and analyzed. Toward the end of that era, it was recognized that `Class 9,' or `beyond design basis,' accidents would need special attention because of the potentially severe health and financial consequences of these accidents. The accident at Three Mile Island showed that sequences of low-consequence, high-frequency events and human errors can be much more risk dominant than the Class 9 accidents. A different form of safety assessment, PSA, emerged and began to gain ground against the deterministic safety establishment. Eventually, this led to the current regulatory requirements for individual plant examinations (IPEs). The IPEs can serve as a basis for risk-based regulation and management, a concept that may ultimately transform the U.S. regulatory process from its traditional deterministic foundations to a process predicated upon PSA. Beyond the possibility of a regulatory environment predicated upon PSA lies the possibility of using PSA as the foundation for managing daily nuclear power plant operations.

Quality evaluation of official accident reports conducted by Labour Authorities in Andalusia (Spain).

PubMed

Salguero-Caparros, Francisco; Suarez-Cebador, Manuel; Carrillo-Castrillo, Jesús A; Rubio-Romero, Juan Carlos

2018-01-01

A public accident investigation is carried out when the consequences of the incident are significant or the accident has occurred in unusual circumstances. We evaluated the quality of the official accident investigations being conducted by Safety Specialists of the Labour Authorities in Andalusia. To achieve this objective, we analysed 98 occupational accident investigations conducted by the Labour Authorities in Andalusia in the last quarter of 2014. Various phases in the accident investigation process were examined, such as the use of the Eurostat variables within European Statistics on Accidents at Work (ESAW), detection of causes, determination of preventive measures, cost analysis of the accidents, identification of noncompliance with legal requirements or the investigation method used. The results of this study show that 77% of the official occupational accident investigation reports analysed were conducted in accordance with all the quality criteria recommended in the literature. To enhance glogal learning, and optimize allocation of resources, we propose the development of a harmonized European model for the public investigation of occupational accidents. Further it would be advisable to create a common classification and coding system for the causes of accidents for all European Union Member States.

Voluntary Health Registry of French Nationals after the Great East Japan Earthquake, Tsunami, and Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant Accident: Methods, Results, Implications, and Feedback.

PubMed

Motreff, Yvon; Pirard, Philippe; Lagrée, Céline; Roudier, Candice; Empereur-Bissonnet, Pascal

2016-06-01

Introduction The 11th of March 2011, a magnitude 9.0 earthquake struck alongside the north-east coast of Honshu Island, Japan, causing a tsunami and a major nuclear accident. The French Institute for Public Health Surveillance (InVS) set up, within one week after the triple catastrophe, an Internet-based registry for French nationals who were in Japan at the time of the disasters. In this string of disasters, in this context of uncertainties about the nuclear risks, the aim of this registry was to facilitate the: (1) realization of further epidemiologic studies, if needed; and (2) contact of people if a medical follow-up was needed. The purpose of this report was to describe how the health registry was set up, what it was used for, and to discuss further utilization and improvements to health registries after disasters. The conception of the questionnaire to register French nationals was based on a form developed as part of the Steering Committee for the management of the post-accident phase in the event of nuclear accident or a radiological emergency situation (CODIRPA) work. The questionnaire was available online. The main objective was achieved since it was theoretically possible to contact again the 1,089 persons who completed the form. According to the data collected on their space-time budget, to the result of internal contamination measured by the French Institute for Radiological Protection and Nuclear Safety (IRSN) and dosimetric expertise published by the World Health Organization (WHO), it was not suitable to conduct an epidemiologic follow-up of adverse effects of exposure to ionizing radiations among them. However, this registry was used to launch a qualitative study on exposure to stress and psychosocial impact of the Great East Japan Earthquake on French nationals who were in Japan in March 2011. Setting a registry after a disaster is a very important step in managing the various consequences of a disaster. This experience showed that it is quickly feasible and does not raise adverse side effects in involved people. Motreff Y , Pirard P , Lagrée C , Roudier C , Empereur-Bissonnet P . Voluntary health registry of French nationals after the Great East Japan Earthquake, tsunami, and Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident: methods, results, implications, and feedback. Prehosp Disaster Med. 2016;31(3):326-329.

[Thrombosis and post-thrombotic syndrome as a consequence of an accident].

PubMed

Wahl, U; Hirsch, T

2015-10-01

Phlebothromboses represent alarming complications in accident victims since they can cause fatal pulmonary embolisms. More than half of those affected also develop post-thrombotic syndrome in the course of the illness. In addition to making clinical assessments, the traumatologist should also have fundamental knowledge about diagnostic methods and be familiar with interpreting internal findings. Colour-coded duplex sonography plays a central role in diagnosing thrombosis and in assessing functional limitations. Further information can be gathered from various phlebological procedures. The expert evaluation of the immediate, as well as the long-term consequences of an accident frequently require leg swelling to be classified. It is not uncommon for post-thrombotic syndrome to be diagnosed for the first time during this process. An additional vascular appraisal is often required. An appreciation of social-medical and insurance-related aspects means a high degree of responsibility is placed on the expert.

Experimental evidence against the paradigm of mortality risk aversion.

PubMed

Rheinberger, Christoph M

2010-04-01

This article deals with the question of how societal impacts of fatal accidents can be integrated into the management of natural or man-made hazards. Today, many governmental agencies give additional weight to the number of potential fatalities in their risk assessments to reflect society's aversion to large accidents. Although mortality risk aversion has been proposed in numerous risk management guidelines, there has been no evidence that lay people want public decisionmakers to overweight infrequent accidents of large societal consequences against more frequent ones of smaller societal consequences. Furthermore, it is not known whether public decisionmakers actually do such overweighting when they decide upon the mitigation of natural or technical hazards. In this article, we report on two experimental tasks that required participants to evaluate negative prospects involving 1-100 potential fatalities. Our results show that neither lay people nor hazard experts exhibit risk-averse behavior in decisions on mortality risks.

Network-level accident-mapping: Distance based pattern matching using artificial neural network.

PubMed

Deka, Lipika; Quddus, Mohammed

2014-04-01

The objective of an accident-mapping algorithm is to snap traffic accidents onto the correct road segments. Assigning accidents onto the correct segments facilitate to robustly carry out some key analyses in accident research including the identification of accident hot-spots, network-level risk mapping and segment-level accident risk modelling. Existing risk mapping algorithms have some severe limitations: (i) they are not easily 'transferable' as the algorithms are specific to given accident datasets; (ii) they do not perform well in all road-network environments such as in areas of dense road network; and (iii) the methods used do not perform well in addressing inaccuracies inherent in and type of road environment. The purpose of this paper is to develop a new accident mapping algorithm based on the common variables observed in most accident databases (e.g. road name and type, direction of vehicle movement before the accident and recorded accident location). The challenges here are to: (i) develop a method that takes into account uncertainties inherent to the recorded traffic accident data and the underlying digital road network data, (ii) accurately determine the type and proportion of inaccuracies, and (iii) develop a robust algorithm that can be adapted for any accident set and road network of varying complexity. In order to overcome these challenges, a distance based pattern-matching approach is used to identify the correct road segment. This is based on vectors containing feature values that are common in the accident data and the network data. Since each feature does not contribute equally towards the identification of the correct road segments, an ANN approach using the single-layer perceptron is used to assist in "learning" the relative importance of each feature in the distance calculation and hence the correct link identification. The performance of the developed algorithm was evaluated based on a reference accident dataset from the UK confirming that the accuracy is much better than other methods. Crown Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A web-application for visualizing uncertainty in numerical ensemble models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alberti, Koko; Hiemstra, Paul; de Jong, Kor; Karssenberg, Derek

2013-04-01

Numerical ensemble models are used in the analysis and forecasting of a wide range of environmental processes. Common use cases include assessing the consequences of nuclear accidents, pollution releases into the ocean or atmosphere, forest fires, volcanic eruptions, or identifying areas at risk from such hazards. In addition to the increased use of scenario analyses and model forecasts, the availability of supplementary data describing errors and model uncertainties is increasingly commonplace. Unfortunately most current visualization routines are not capable of properly representing uncertain information. As a result, uncertainty information is not provided at all, not readily accessible, or it is not communicated effectively to model users such as domain experts, decision makers, policy makers, or even novice users. In an attempt to address these issues a lightweight and interactive web-application has been developed. It makes clear and concise uncertainty visualizations available in a web-based mapping and visualization environment, incorporating aggregation (upscaling) techniques to adjust uncertainty information to the zooming level. The application has been built on a web mapping stack of open source software, and can quantify and visualize uncertainties in numerical ensemble models in such a way that both expert and novice users can investigate uncertainties present in a simple ensemble dataset. As a test case, a dataset was used which forecasts the spread of an airborne tracer across Western Europe. Extrinsic uncertainty representations are used in which dynamic circular glyphs are overlaid on model attribute maps to convey various uncertainty concepts. It supports both basic uncertainty metrics such as standard deviation, standard error, width of the 95% confidence interval and interquartile range, as well as more experimental ones aimed at novice users. Ranges of attribute values can be specified, and the circular glyphs dynamically change size to represent the probability of the attribute value falling within the specified interval. For more advanced users graphs of the cumulative probability density function, histograms, and time series plume charts are available. To avoid risking a cognitive overload and crowding of glyphs on the map pane, the support of the data used for generating the glyphs is linked dynamically to the zoom level. Zooming in and out respectively decreases and increases the underlying support size of data used for generating the glyphs, thereby making uncertainty information of the original data upscaled to the resolution of the visualization accessible to the user. This feature also ensures that the glyphs are neatly spaced in a regular grid regardless of the zoom level. Finally, the web-application has been presented to groups of test users of varying degrees of expertise in order to evaluate the usability of the interface and the effectiveness of uncertainty visualizations based on circular glyphs.

Thyroid carcinoma in children and adolescents resulting from the Chernobyl accident: possible causes of the incidence increase overestimation.

PubMed

Jargin, S V

2009-04-01

The Chernobyl accident in the nuclear power plant on 26th April 1986 was followed by numerous publications overestimating the medical consequences of the disaster. In the publications, interpretations of spontaneous diseases as radiation-induced, indication of radioactivity or dose levels without confrontation with the natural radiation background, or conclusions about incidence increase without comparison with the increase tendencies in larger regions or the whole country, can be found. Improved diagnostics after the Chernobyl accident is not always taken into account. The high figures could have been caused in some cases by non-random material selection or inadequate morphological assessment of biopsy specimens. The application of the linear-no-threshold theory to the inhabitants of contaminated areas contributed to an overestimation of medical consequences of the Chernobyl accident as well. The incidence increase of thyroid carcinoma in children and adolescents started in 1990, four years after the accident. High tumor expectancy after the accident, in the circumstances of limited technical possibilities and outdated equipment of histological laboratories, contributed to a higher number of registered cases. The quality of specimens necessary for the assessment of nuclear criteria of papillary carcinoma was not always achieved at that time. The incidence increase of thyroid carcinoma can, at least in part, be explained by improved detection of thyroid nodules with occasional false-positive conclusions about malignancy. Besides, latent carcinomas and well-differentiated thyroid tumors of uncertain malignant potential, diagnosed as malignancies, could have additionally contributed to the high figures.

Probability of loss of assured safety in systems with multiple time-dependent failure modes.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Helton, Jon Craig; Pilch, Martin.; Sallaberry, Cedric Jean-Marie.

2012-09-01

Weak link (WL)/strong link (SL) systems are important parts of the overall operational design of high-consequence systems. In such designs, the SL system is very robust and is intended to permit operation of the entire system under, and only under, intended conditions. In contrast, the WL system is intended to fail in a predictable and irreversible manner under accident conditions and render the entire system inoperable before an accidental operation of the SL system. The likelihood that the WL system will fail to deactivate the entire system before the SL system fails (i.e., degrades into a configuration that could allowmore » an accidental operation of the entire system) is referred to as probability of loss of assured safety (PLOAS). Representations for PLOAS for situations in which both link physical properties and link failure properties are time-dependent are derived and numerically evaluated for a variety of WL/SL configurations, including PLOAS defined by (i) failure of all SLs before failure of any WL, (ii) failure of any SL before failure of any WL, (iii) failure of all SLs before failure of all WLs, and (iv) failure of any SL before failure of all WLs. The effects of aleatory uncertainty and epistemic uncertainty in the definition and numerical evaluation of PLOAS are considered.« less

40 CFR 1400.1 - Purpose.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... OFF-SITE CONSEQUENCE ANALYSIS INFORMATION DISTRIBUTION OF OFF-SITE CONSEQUENCE ANALYSIS INFORMATION... chemical accidents and submit the results of their analyses to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency as... the portions of risk management plans containing the results of those analyses and certain related...

40 CFR 1400.1 - Purpose.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... OFF-SITE CONSEQUENCE ANALYSIS INFORMATION DISTRIBUTION OF OFF-SITE CONSEQUENCE ANALYSIS INFORMATION... chemical accidents and submit the results of their analyses to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency as... the portions of risk management plans containing the results of those analyses and certain related...

40 CFR 1400.1 - Purpose.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... OFF-SITE CONSEQUENCE ANALYSIS INFORMATION DISTRIBUTION OF OFF-SITE CONSEQUENCE ANALYSIS INFORMATION... chemical accidents and submit the results of their analyses to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency as... the portions of risk management plans containing the results of those analyses and certain related...

40 CFR 1400.1 - Purpose.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... OFF-SITE CONSEQUENCE ANALYSIS INFORMATION DISTRIBUTION OF OFF-SITE CONSEQUENCE ANALYSIS INFORMATION... chemical accidents and submit the results of their analyses to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency as... the portions of risk management plans containing the results of those analyses and certain related...

Probabilistic and deterministic evaluation of uncertainty in a local scale multi-risk analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lari, S.; Frattini, P.; Crosta, G. B.

2009-04-01

We performed a probabilistic multi-risk analysis (QPRA) at the local scale for a 420 km2 area surrounding the town of Brescia (Northern Italy). We calculated the expected annual loss in terms of economical damage and life loss, for a set of risk scenarios of flood, earthquake and industrial accident with different occurrence probabilities and different intensities. The territorial unit used for the study was the census parcel, of variable area, for which a large amount of data was available. Due to the lack of information related to the evaluation of the hazards, to the value of the exposed elements (e.g., residential and industrial area, population, lifelines, sensitive elements as schools, hospitals) and to the process-specific vulnerability, and to a lack of knowledge of the processes (floods, industrial accidents, earthquakes), we assigned an uncertainty to the input variables of the analysis. For some variables an homogeneous uncertainty was assigned on the whole study area, as for instance for the number of buildings of various typologies, and for the event occurrence probability. In other cases, as for phenomena intensity (e.g.,depth of water during flood) and probability of impact, the uncertainty was defined in relation to the census parcel area. In fact assuming some variables homogeneously diffused or averaged on the census parcels, we introduce a larger error for larger parcels. We propagated the uncertainty in the analysis using three different models, describing the reliability of the output (risk) as a function of the uncertainty of the inputs (scenarios and vulnerability functions). We developed a probabilistic approach based on Monte Carlo simulation, and two deterministic models, namely First Order Second Moment (FOSM) and Point Estimate (PE). In general, similar values of expected losses are obtained with the three models. The uncertainty of the final risk value is in the three cases around the 30% of the expected value. Each of the models, nevertheless, requires different assumptions and computational efforts, and provides results with different level of detail.

The PSI Artist Project: Aerosol Retention and Accident Management Issues Following a Steam Generator Tube Rupture

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Guntay, Salih; Dehbi, Abdel; Suckow, Detlef

2002-07-01

Steam generator tube rupture (SGTR) incidents, such as those, which occurred in various operating pressurized, water reactors in the past, are serious operational concerns and remain among the most risk-dominant events. Although considerable efforts have been spent to understand tube degradation processes, develop improved modes of operation, and take preventative and corrective measures, SGTR incidents cannot be completely ruled out. Under certain conditions, high releases of radionuclides to the environment are possible during design basis accidents (DBA) and severe accidents. The severe accident codes' models for aerosol retention in the secondary side of a steam generator (SG) have not beenmore » assessed against any experimental data, which means that the uncertainties in the source term following an un-isolated SGTR concurrent with a severe accident are not currently quantified. The accident management (AM) procedures aim at avoiding or minimizing the release of fission products from the SG. The enhanced retention of activity within the SG defines the effectiveness of the accident management actions for the specific hardware characteristics and accident conditions of concern. A sound database on aerosol retention due to natural processes in the SG is not available, nor is an assessment of the effect of management actions on these processes. Hence, the effectiveness of the AM in SGTR events is not presently known. To help reduce uncertainties relating to SGTR issues, an experimental project, ARTIST (Aerosol Trapping In a Steam generator), has been initiated at the Paul Scherrer Institut to address aerosol and droplet retention in the various parts of the SG. The test section is comprised of a scaled-down tube bundle, a full-size separator and a full-size dryer unit. The project will study phenomena at the separate effect and integral levels and address AM issues in seven distinct phases: Aerosol retention in 1) the broken tube under dry secondary side conditions, 2) the near field close to break under dry conditions, 3) the bundle far-field under dry conditions, 4) the separator and dryer under dry conditions, 5) the bundle section under wet conditions, 6) droplet retention in the separator and dryer sections and 7) the overall SG (integral tests). Prototypical test parameters are selected to cover the range of conditions expected in severe accident as well as DBA scenarios. This paper summarizes the relevant issues and introduces the ARTIST facility and the provisional test program which will run between 2003 and 2007. (authors)« less

Human Factors in Cabin Accident Investigations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chute, Rebecca D.; Rosekind, Mark R. (Technical Monitor)

1996-01-01

Human factors has become an integral part of the accident investigation protocol. However, much of the investigative process remains focussed on the flight deck, airframe, and power plant systems. As a consequence, little data has been collected regarding the human factors issues within and involving the cabin during an accident. Therefore, the possibility exists that contributing factors that lie within that domain may be overlooked. The FAA Office of Accident Investigation is sponsoring a two-day workshop on cabin safety accident investigation. This course, within the workshop, will be of two hours duration and will explore relevant areas of human factors research. Specifically, the three areas of discussion are: Information transfer and resource management, fatigue and other physical stressors, and the human/machine interface. Integration of these areas will be accomplished by providing a suggested checklist of specific cabin-related human factors questions for investigators to probe following an accident.

Analysis of construction accidents in Spain, 2003-2008.

PubMed

López Arquillos, Antonio; Rubio Romero, Juan Carlos; Gibb, Alistair

2012-12-01

The research objective for this paper is to obtain a new extended and updated insight to the likely causes of construction accidents in Spain, in order to identify suitable mitigating actions. The paper analyzes all construction sector accidents in Spain between 2003 and 2008. Ten variables were chosen and the influence of each variable is evaluated with respect to the severity of the accident. The descriptive analysis is based on a total of 1,163,178 accidents. Results showed that the severity of accidents was related to variables including age, CNAE (National Classification of Economic Activities) code, size of company, length of service, location of accident, day of the week, days of absence, deviation, injury, and climatic zones. According to data analyzed, a large company is not always necessarily safer than a small company in the aspect of fatal accidents, experienced workers do not have the best accident fatality rates, and accidents occurring away from the usual workplace had more severe consequences. Results obtained in this paper can be used by companies in their occupational safety strategies, and in their safety training programs. Copyright © 2012 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Biostimulation proved to be the most efficient method in the comparison of in situ soil remediation treatments after a simulated oil spill accident.

PubMed

Simpanen, Suvi; Dahl, Mari; Gerlach, Magdalena; Mikkonen, Anu; Malk, Vuokko; Mikola, Juha; Romantschuk, Martin

2016-12-01

The use of in situ techniques in soil remediation is still rare in Finland and most other European countries due to the uncertainty of the effectiveness of the techniques especially in cold regions and also due to their potential side effects on the environment. In this study, we compared the biostimulation, chemical oxidation, and natural attenuation treatments in natural conditions and pilot scale during a 16-month experiment. A real fuel spill accident was used as a model for experiment setup and soil contamination. We found that biostimulation significantly decreased the contaminant leachate into the water, including also the non-aqueous phase liquid (NAPL). The total NAPL leachate was 19 % lower in the biostimulation treatment that in the untreated soil and 34 % lower in the biostimulation than oxidation treatment. Soil bacterial growth and community changes were first observed due to the increased carbon content via oil amendment and later due to the enhanced nutrient content via biostimulation. Overall, the most effective treatment for fresh contaminated soil was biostimulation, which enhanced the biodegradation of easily available oil in the mobile phase and consequently reduced contaminant leakage through the soil. The chemical oxidation did not enhance soil cleanup and resulted in the mobilization of contaminants. Our results suggest that biostimulation can decrease or even prevent oil migration in recently contaminated areas and can thus be considered as a potentially safe in situ treatment also in groundwater areas.

Are passive smoking, air pollution and obesity a greater mortality risk than major radiation incidents?

PubMed Central

Smith, Jim T

2007-01-01

Background Following a nuclear incident, the communication and perception of radiation risk becomes a (perhaps the) major public health issue. In response to such incidents it is therefore crucial to communicate radiation health risks in the context of other more common environmental and lifestyle risk factors. This study compares the risk of mortality from past radiation exposures (to people who survived the Hiroshima and Nagasaki atomic bombs and those exposed after the Chernobyl accident) with risks arising from air pollution, obesity and passive and active smoking. Methods A comparative assessment of mortality risks from ionising radiation was carried out by estimating radiation risks for realistic exposure scenarios and assessing those risks in comparison with risks from air pollution, obesity and passive and active smoking. Results The mortality risk to populations exposed to radiation from the Chernobyl accident may be no higher than that for other more common risk factors such as air pollution or passive smoking. Radiation exposures experienced by the most exposed group of survivors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki led to an average loss of life expectancy significantly lower than that caused by severe obesity or active smoking. Conclusion Population-averaged risks from exposures following major radiation incidents are clearly significant, but may be no greater than those from other much more common environmental and lifestyle factors. This comparative analysis, whilst highlighting inevitable uncertainties in risk quantification and comparison, helps place the potential consequences of radiation exposures in the context of other public health risks. PMID:17407581

Laser-heating and Radiance Spectrometry for the Study of Nuclear Materials in Conditions Simulating a Nuclear Power Plant Accident.

PubMed

Manara, Dario; Soldi, Luca; Mastromarino, Sara; Boboridis, Kostantinos; Robba, Davide; Vlahovic, Luka; Konings, Rudy

2017-12-14

Major and severe accidents have occurred three times in nuclear power plants (NPPs), at Three Mile Island (USA, 1979), Chernobyl (former USSR, 1986) and Fukushima (Japan, 2011). Research on the causes, dynamics, and consequences of these mishaps has been performed in a few laboratories worldwide in the last three decades. Common goals of such research activities are: the prevention of these kinds of accidents, both in existing and potential new nuclear power plants; the minimization of their eventual consequences; and ultimately, a full understanding of the real risks connected with NPPs. At the European Commission Joint Research Centre's Institute for Transuranium Elements, a laser-heating and fast radiance spectro-pyrometry facility is used for the laboratory simulation, on a small scale, of NPP core meltdown, the most common type of severe accident (SA) that can occur in a nuclear reactor as a consequence of a failure of the cooling system. This simulation tool permits fast and effective high-temperature measurements on real nuclear materials, such as plutonium and minor actinide-containing fission fuel samples. In this respect, and in its capability to produce large amount of data concerning materials under extreme conditions, the current experimental approach is certainly unique. For current and future concepts of NPP, example results are presented on the melting behavior of some different types of nuclear fuels: uranium-plutonium oxides, carbides, and nitrides. Results on the high-temperature interaction of oxide fuels with containment materials are also briefly shown.

Fukushima Daiichi unit 1 uncertainty analysis--Preliminary selection of uncertain parameters and analysis methodology

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cardoni, Jeffrey N.; Kalinich, Donald A.

2014-02-01

Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) plans to conduct uncertainty analyses (UA) on the Fukushima Daiichi unit (1F1) plant with the MELCOR code. The model to be used was developed for a previous accident reconstruction investigation jointly sponsored by the US Department of Energy (DOE) and Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). However, that study only examined a handful of various model inputs and boundary conditions, and the predictions yielded only fair agreement with plant data and current release estimates. The goal of this uncertainty study is to perform a focused evaluation of uncertainty in core melt progression behavior and its effect on keymore » figures-of-merit (e.g., hydrogen production, vessel lower head failure, etc.). In preparation for the SNL Fukushima UA work, a scoping study has been completed to identify important core melt progression parameters for the uncertainty analysis. The study also lays out a preliminary UA methodology.« less

LNG risk management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martino, P.

1980-12-01

A general methodology is presented for conducting an analysis of the various aspects of the hazards associated with the storage and transportation of liquefied natural gas (LNG) which should be considered during the planning stages of a typical LNG ship terminal. The procedure includes the performance of a hazards and system analysis of the proposed site, a probability analysis of accident scenarios and safety impacts, an analysis of the consequences of credible accidents such as tanker accidents, spills and fires, the assessment of risks and the design and evaluation of risk mitigation measures.

[Nuclear-power-plant accidents: thyroid cancer incidence and radiation-related health effects from the Chernobyl accident].

PubMed

Schlumberger, Martin; Le Guen, Bernard

2012-01-01

Following the Chernobyl accident, enormous amounts of radioisotopes were released in the atmosphere and have contaminated surrounding populations in the absence of rapid protective countermeasures. The highest radiation doses were delivered to the thyroid gland, and the only direct consequence of radiation exposure observed among contaminated population is the increased incidence of thyroid cancers among subjects who were children in 1986 and who lived at that time in Belarus, Ukraine or Russia. © 2012 médecine/sciences – Inserm / SRMS.

Vulnerability assessment of chemical industry facilities in South Korea based on the chemical accident history

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heo, S.; Lee, W. K.; Jong-Ryeul, S.; Kim, M. I.

2016-12-01

The use of chemical compounds are keep increasing because of their use in manufacturing industry. Chemical accident is growing as the consequence of the chemical use increment. Devastating damages from chemical accidents are far enough to aware people's cautious about the risk of the chemical accident. In South Korea, Gumi Hydrofluoric acid leaking accident triggered the importance of risk management and emphasized the preventing the accident over the damage reducing process after the accident occurs. Gumi accident encouraged the government data base construction relate to the chemical accident. As the result of this effort Chemical Safety-Clearing-house (CSC) have started to record the chemical accident information and damages according to the Harmful Chemical Substance Control Act (HCSC). CSC provide details information about the chemical accidents from 2002 to present. The detail informations are including title of company, address, business type, accident dates, accident types, accident chemical compounds, human damages inside of the chemical industry facilities, human damage outside of the chemical industry facilities, financial damages inside of the chemical industry facilities, and financial damages outside of the chemical industry facilities, environmental damages and response to the chemical accident. Collected the chemical accident history of South Korea from 2002 to 2015 and provide the spatial information to the each accident records based on their address. With the spatial information, compute the data on ArcGIS for the spatial-temporal analysis. The spatial-temporal information of chemical accident is organized by the chemical accident types, damages, and damages on environment and conduct the spatial proximity with local community and environmental receptors. Find the chemical accident vulnerable area of South Korea from 2002 to 2015 and add the vulnerable area of total period to examine the historically vulnerable area from the chemical accident in South Korea.

REAC/TS Radiation Accident Registry: An Overview

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Doran M. Christensen, DO, REAC /TS Associate Director and Staff Physician Becky Murdock, REAC/TS Registry and Health Physics Technician

2012-12-12

Over the past four years, REAC/TS has presented a number of case reports from its Radiation Accident Registry. Victims of radiological or nuclear incidents must meet certain dose criteria for an incident to be categorized as an “accident” and be included in the registry. Although the greatest numbers of “accidents” in the United States that have been entered into the registry involve radiation devices, the greater percentage of serious accidents have involved sealed sources of one kind or another. But if one looks at the kinds of accident scenarios that have resulted in extreme consequence, i.e., death, the greater sharemore » of deaths has occurred in medical settings.« less

Distribution of Causes in Selected US Aviation Accident Reports Between 1996 and 2003

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Holloway, C. M.; Johnson, C. W.

2004-01-01

This paper describes the results of an independent analysis of the probable and contributory causes of selected aviation accidents in the United States between 1996 and 2003. The purpose of the study was to assess the comparative frequency of a variety of causal factors in the reporting of these adverse events. Although our results show that more of these high consequence accidents were attributed to human error than to any other single factor, a large number of reports also mentioned wider systemic issues, including the managerial and regulatory context of aviation operations. These wider issues are more likely to appear as contributory rather than primary causes in this set of accident reports.

Driver fatigue and road safety on Poland's national roads.

PubMed

Jamroz, Kazimierz; Smolarek, Leszek

2013-01-01

This paper presents an overview of factors causing driver fatigue as described in the literature. Next, a traffic crash database for 2003-2007 is used to identify the causes, circumstances and consequences of accidents caused by driver fatigue on Poland's national roads. The results of the study were used to build a model showing the relationship between the concentration of road accidents and casualties, and the time of day. Finally, the level of relative accident risk at night-time versus daytime is defined. A map shows the risk of death and severe injury on the network of Poland's national roads. The paper suggests to road authorities steps to reduce fatigue-related road accidents in Poland.

Comparison of the Chernobyl and Fukushima nuclear accidents: a review of the environmental impacts.

PubMed

Steinhauser, Georg; Brandl, Alexander; Johnson, Thomas E

2014-02-01

The environmental impacts of the nuclear accidents of Chernobyl and Fukushima are compared. In almost every respect, the consequences of the Chernobyl accident clearly exceeded those of the Fukushima accident. In both accidents, most of the radioactivity released was due to volatile radionuclides (noble gases, iodine, cesium, tellurium). However, the amount of refractory elements (including actinides) emitted in the course of the Chernobyl accident was approximately four orders of magnitude higher than during the Fukushima accident. For Chernobyl, a total release of 5,300 PBq (excluding noble gases) has been established as the most cited source term. For Fukushima, we estimated a total source term of 520 (340-800) PBq. In the course of the Fukushima accident, the majority of the radionuclides (more than 80%) was transported offshore and deposited in the Pacific Ocean. Monitoring campaigns after both accidents reveal that the environmental impact of the Chernobyl accident was much greater than of the Fukushima accident. Both the highly contaminated areas and the evacuated areas are smaller around Fukushima and the projected health effects in Japan are significantly lower than after the Chernobyl accident. This is mainly due to the fact that food safety campaigns and evacuations worked quickly and efficiently after the Fukushima accident. In contrast to Chernobyl, no fatalities due to acute radiation effects occurred in Fukushima. © 2013.

Inverse modelling of radionuclide release rates using gamma dose rate observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamburger, Thomas; Evangeliou, Nikolaos; Stohl, Andreas; von Haustein, Christoph; Thummerer, Severin; Wallner, Christian

2015-04-01

Severe accidents in nuclear power plants such as the historical accident in Chernobyl 1986 or the more recent disaster in the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant in 2011 have drastic impacts on the population and environment. Observations and dispersion modelling of the released radionuclides help to assess the regional impact of such nuclear accidents. Modelling the increase of regional radionuclide activity concentrations, which results from nuclear accidents, underlies a multiplicity of uncertainties. One of the most significant uncertainties is the estimation of the source term. That is, the time dependent quantification of the released spectrum of radionuclides during the course of the nuclear accident. The quantification of the source term may either remain uncertain (e.g. Chernobyl, Devell et al., 1995) or rely on estimates given by the operators of the nuclear power plant. Precise measurements are mostly missing due to practical limitations during the accident. The release rates of radionuclides at the accident site can be estimated using inverse modelling (Davoine and Bocquet, 2007). The accuracy of the method depends amongst others on the availability, reliability and the resolution in time and space of the used observations. Radionuclide activity concentrations are observed on a relatively sparse grid and the temporal resolution of available data may be low within the order of hours or a day. Gamma dose rates, on the other hand, are observed routinely on a much denser grid and higher temporal resolution and provide therefore a wider basis for inverse modelling (Saunier et al., 2013). We present a new inversion approach, which combines an atmospheric dispersion model and observations of radionuclide activity concentrations and gamma dose rates to obtain the source term of radionuclides. We use the Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART (Stohl et al., 1998; Stohl et al., 2005) to model the atmospheric transport of the released radionuclides. The inversion method uses a Bayesian formulation considering uncertainties for the a priori source term and the observations (Eckhardt et al., 2008, Stohl et al., 2012). The a priori information on the source term is a first guess. The gamma dose rate observations are used to improve the first guess and to retrieve a reliable source term. The details of this method will be presented at the conference. This work is funded by the Bundesamt für Strahlenschutz BfS, Forschungsvorhaben 3612S60026. References Davoine, X. and Bocquet, M., Atmos. Chem. Phys., 7, 1549-1564, 2007. Devell, L., et al., OCDE/GD(96)12, 1995. Eckhardt, S., et al., Atmos. Chem. Phys., 8, 3881-3897, 2008. Saunier, O., et al., Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 11403-11421, 2013. Stohl, A., et al., Atmos. Environ., 32, 4245-4264, 1998. Stohl, A., et al., Atmos. Chem. Phys., 5, 2461-2474, 2005. Stohl, A., et al., Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 2313-2343, 2012.

Medical management of radiation accidents: capabilities and deployment principles of the Bundeswehr Institute of Radiobiology.

PubMed

Dörr, Harald; Meineke, Viktor

2012-10-01

Radiation accidents are fortunately infrequent occurrences, but since their consequences can be very serious as in the Chernobyl and the Fukushima nuclear accidents, medical management of radiation accidents is of great importance. Besides several other tasks, medical management of radiation accidents is one of the key tasks of the Bundeswehr Institute of Radiobiology. Within a Task Force Unit for medical chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) Defense, the institute provides designated personnel who will perform clinical investigations on the scene and will liaise with the institute, where different methods for biological dosimetry and dose reconstruction will be performed. The most important aspects of efficient medical management of radiation accidents are diagnosis of radiation-induced health damage, determination of the cause, dealing with contamination/incorporation, pathophysiological and therapeutic principles, preparatory planning, national and international cooperation and training. Military and non-military institutions have to work closely together when it comes to radiation accidents and since national resources are limited and could be exhausted, international networks can help to ensure medical treatment for radiation accident victims.

Modeling secondary accidents identified by traffic shock waves.

PubMed

Junhua, Wang; Boya, Liu; Lanfang, Zhang; Ragland, David R

2016-02-01

The high potential for occurrence and the negative consequences of secondary accidents make them an issue of great concern affecting freeway safety. Using accident records from a three-year period together with California interstate freeway loop data, a dynamic method for more accurate classification based on the traffic shock wave detecting method was used to identify secondary accidents. Spatio-temporal gaps between the primary and secondary accident were proven be fit via a mixture of Weibull and normal distribution. A logistic regression model was developed to investigate major factors contributing to secondary accident occurrence. Traffic shock wave speed and volume at the occurrence of a primary accident were explicitly considered in the model, as a secondary accident is defined as an accident that occurs within the spatio-temporal impact scope of the primary accident. Results show that the shock waves originating in the wake of a primary accident have a more significant impact on the likelihood of a secondary accident occurrence than the effects of traffic volume. Primary accidents with long durations can significantly increase the possibility of secondary accidents. Unsafe speed and weather are other factors contributing to secondary crash occurrence. It is strongly suggested that when police or rescue personnel arrive at the scene of an accident, they should not suddenly block, decrease, or unblock the traffic flow, but instead endeavor to control traffic in a smooth and controlled manner. Also it is important to reduce accident processing time to reduce the risk of secondary accident. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Significance of chronic toxoplasmosis in epidemiology of road traffic accidents in Russian Federation

PubMed Central

Stepanova, Ekaterina V.; Kondrashin, Anatoly V.; Sergiev, Vladimir P.; Morozova, Lola F.; Turbabina, Natalia A.; Maksimova, Maria S.; Brazhnikov, Alexey I.; Shevchenko, Sergei B.

2017-01-01

Studies carried out in Moscow residents have revealed that the prevalence of chronic toxoplasmosis is very close to those in countries of Eastern and Central Europe. Our findings also demonstrated a statistically significant relationship between the rate of traffic accidents and the seroprevalence of chronic toxoplasmosis in drivers who were held responsible for accidents. The latter was 2.37 times higher in drivers who were involved in road accidents compared with control groups. These results suggest that the consequences of chronic toxoplasmosis (particularly a slower reaction time and decreased concentration) might contribute to the peculiarities of the epidemiology of road traffic accidents in the Russian Federation and might interfere with the successful implementation of the Federal Programme named “Increase road traffic safety”. Suggestions for how to address overcome this problem are discussed in this paper. PMID:28957427

Significance of chronic toxoplasmosis in epidemiology of road traffic accidents in Russian Federation.

PubMed

Stepanova, Ekaterina V; Kondrashin, Anatoly V; Sergiev, Vladimir P; Morozova, Lola F; Turbabina, Natalia A; Maksimova, Maria S; Brazhnikov, Alexey I; Shevchenko, Sergei B; Morozov, Evgeny N

2017-01-01

Studies carried out in Moscow residents have revealed that the prevalence of chronic toxoplasmosis is very close to those in countries of Eastern and Central Europe. Our findings also demonstrated a statistically significant relationship between the rate of traffic accidents and the seroprevalence of chronic toxoplasmosis in drivers who were held responsible for accidents. The latter was 2.37 times higher in drivers who were involved in road accidents compared with control groups. These results suggest that the consequences of chronic toxoplasmosis (particularly a slower reaction time and decreased concentration) might contribute to the peculiarities of the epidemiology of road traffic accidents in the Russian Federation and might interfere with the successful implementation of the Federal Programme named "Increase road traffic safety". Suggestions for how to address overcome this problem are discussed in this paper.

Severe accidents in the energy sector: comparative perspective.

PubMed

Hirschberg, Stefan; Burgherr, Peter; Spiekerman, Gerard; Dones, Roberto

2004-07-26

This paper addresses one of the controversial issues in the current comparative studies of the environmental and health impacts of energy systems, i.e. the treatment of severe accidents. The work covers technical aspects of severe accidents and thus primarily reflects an engineering perspective on the energy-related risk issues, though some social implications are also touched upon. The assessment concerns fossil energy sources (coal, oil and gas), nuclear power and hydro power. The scope is not limited to the power production (conversion) step of these energy chains but, whenever applicable, also includes exploration, extraction, transports, processing, storage and waste disposal. With the exception of the nuclear chain the focus of the work has been on the evaluation of the historical experience of accidents. The basis used for this evaluation is a comprehensive database ENSAD (Energy-related Severe Accident Database), established by the Paul Scherrer Institut (PSI). For hypothetical nuclear accidents the probabilistic technique has also been employed and extended to cover the assessment of economic consequences of such accidents. The broader picture obtained by coverage of full energy chains leads on the world-wide basis to aggregated immediate fatality rates being much higher for the fossil chains than what one would expect if only power plants were considered. Generally, the immediate fatality rates are for all considered energy carriers significantly higher for the non-OECD countries than for OECD countries. In the case of hydro and nuclear the difference is in fact dramatic. The presentation of results is not limited to the aggregated values specific for each energy chain. Also frequency-consequence curves are provided. They reflect implicitly the ranking based on the aggregated values but include also such information as the observed or predicted chain-specific maximum extents of damages. This perspective on severe accidents may lead to different system rankings, depending on the individual risk aversion.

Code manual for CONTAIN 2.0: A computer code for nuclear reactor containment analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Murata, K.K.; Williams, D.C.; Griffith, R.O.

1997-12-01

The CONTAIN 2.0 computer code is an integrated analysis tool used for predicting the physical conditions, chemical compositions, and distributions of radiological materials inside a containment building following the release of material from the primary system in a light-water reactor accident. It can also predict the source term to the environment. CONTAIN 2.0 is intended to replace the earlier CONTAIN 1.12, which was released in 1991. The purpose of this Code Manual is to provide full documentation of the features and models in CONTAIN 2.0. Besides complete descriptions of the models, this Code Manual provides a complete description of themore » input and output from the code. CONTAIN 2.0 is a highly flexible and modular code that can run problems that are either quite simple or highly complex. An important aspect of CONTAIN is that the interactions among thermal-hydraulic phenomena, aerosol behavior, and fission product behavior are taken into account. The code includes atmospheric models for steam/air thermodynamics, intercell flows, condensation/evaporation on structures and aerosols, aerosol behavior, and gas combustion. It also includes models for reactor cavity phenomena such as core-concrete interactions and coolant pool boiling. Heat conduction in structures, fission product decay and transport, radioactive decay heating, and the thermal-hydraulic and fission product decontamination effects of engineered safety features are also modeled. To the extent possible, the best available models for severe accident phenomena have been incorporated into CONTAIN, but it is intrinsic to the nature of accident analysis that significant uncertainty exists regarding numerous phenomena. In those cases, sensitivity studies can be performed with CONTAIN by means of user-specified input parameters. Thus, the code can be viewed as a tool designed to assist the knowledge reactor safety analyst in evaluating the consequences of specific modeling assumptions.« less

Possible consequences of severe accidents at the Lubiatowo site, Poland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seibert, Petra; Philipp, Anne; Hofman, Radek; Gufler, Klaus; Sholly, Steven

2014-05-01

The construction of a nuclear power plant is under consideration in Poland. One of the sites under discussion is near Lubiatowo, located on the cost of the Baltic Sea northwest of Gdansk. An assessment of possible environmental consequences is carried out for 88 real meteorological cases with the Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART. Based on literature research, three reactor designs (ABWR, EPR, AP 1000) were identified as being under discussion in Poland. For each of the designs, a set of accident scenarios was evaluated and two source terms per reactor design were selected for analysis. One of the selected source terms was a relatively large release while the second one was a severe accident with an intact containment. Considered endpoints of the calculations are ground contamination with Cs-137 and time-integrated concentrations of I-131 in air as well as committed doses. They are evaluated on a grid of ca. 3 km mesh size covering eastern Central Europe.

As assessment of power system vulnerability to release of carbon fibers during commercial aviation accidents

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Larocque, G. R.

1980-01-01

The vulnerability of a power distribution system in Bedford and Lexington, Massachusetts to power outages as a result of exposure to carbon fibers released in a commercial aviation accident in 1993 was examined. Possible crash scenarios at Logan Airport based on current operational data and estimated carbon fiber usage levels were used to predict exposure levels and occurrence probabilities. The analysis predicts a mean time between carbon fiber induced power outages of 2300 years with an expected annual consequence of 0.7 persons losing power. In comparison to historical outage data for the system, this represents a 0.007% increase in outage rate and 0.07% increase in consequence.

Denver UASI All-Hazards Regional Recovery Framework. Version 1.1

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-10-31

Consequences of the Chernobyl Accident and Their Remediation: Twenty Years of Experience, 2006, at http://www-pub.iaea.org/mtcd/publications/pdf...pub1239_web.pdf 22 This report presents the findings and recommendations of the Chernobyl Forum concerning the environmental effects of the... Chernobyl accident. Recovery Criteria and Guidelines Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment. Hazardous Materials and Waste Management

30 years After the Chernobyl Nuclear Accident: Time for Reflection and Re-evaluation of Current Disaster Preparedness Plans.

PubMed

Zablotska, Lydia B

2016-06-01

It has been 30 years since the worst accident in the history of the nuclear era occurred at the Chernobyl power plant in Ukraine close to densely populated urban areas. To date, epidemiological studies reported increased long-term risks of leukemia, cardiovascular diseases, and cataracts among cleanup workers and of thyroid cancer and non-malignant diseases in those exposed as children and adolescents. Mental health effects were the most significant public health consequence of the accident in the three most contaminated countries of Ukraine, Belarus, and the Russian Federation. Timely and clear communication with affected populations emerged as one of the main lessons in the aftermath of the Chernobyl nuclear accident.

A Review of Criticality Accidents 2000 Revision

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Thomas P. McLaughlin; Shean P. Monahan; Norman L. Pruvost

Criticality accidents and the characteristics of prompt power excursions are discussed. Sixty accidental power excursions are reviewed. Sufficient detail is provided to enable the reader to understand the physical situation, the chemistry and material flow, and when available the administrative setting leading up to the time of the accident. Information on the power history, energy release, consequences, and causes are also included when available. For those accidents that occurred in process plants, two new sections have been included in this revision. The first is an analysis and summary of the physical and neutronic features of the chain reacting systems. Themore » second is a compilation of observations and lessons learned. Excursions associated with large power reactors are not included in this report.« less

Joint release rate estimation and measurement-by-measurement model correction for atmospheric radionuclide emission in nuclear accidents: An application to wind tunnel experiments.

PubMed

Li, Xinpeng; Li, Hong; Liu, Yun; Xiong, Wei; Fang, Sheng

2018-03-05

The release rate of atmospheric radionuclide emissions is a critical factor in the emergency response to nuclear accidents. However, there are unavoidable biases in radionuclide transport models, leading to inaccurate estimates. In this study, a method that simultaneously corrects these biases and estimates the release rate is developed. Our approach provides a more complete measurement-by-measurement correction of the biases with a coefficient matrix that considers both deterministic and stochastic deviations. This matrix and the release rate are jointly solved by the alternating minimization algorithm. The proposed method is generic because it does not rely on specific features of transport models or scenarios. It is validated against wind tunnel experiments that simulate accidental releases in a heterogonous and densely built nuclear power plant site. The sensitivities to the position, number, and quality of measurements and extendibility of the method are also investigated. The results demonstrate that this method effectively corrects the model biases, and therefore outperforms Tikhonov's method in both release rate estimation and model prediction. The proposed approach is robust to uncertainties and extendible with various center estimators, thus providing a flexible framework for robust source inversion in real accidents, even if large uncertainties exist in multiple factors. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Laser-heating and Radiance Spectrometry for the Study of Nuclear Materials in Conditions Simulating a Nuclear Power Plant Accident

PubMed Central

Manara, Dario; Soldi, Luca; Mastromarino, Sara; Boboridis, Kostantinos; Robba, Davide; Vlahovic, Luka; Konings, Rudy

2017-01-01

Major and severe accidents have occurred three times in nuclear power plants (NPPs), at Three Mile Island (USA, 1979), Chernobyl (former USSR, 1986) and Fukushima (Japan, 2011). Research on the causes, dynamics, and consequences of these mishaps has been performed in a few laboratories worldwide in the last three decades. Common goals of such research activities are: the prevention of these kinds of accidents, both in existing and potential new nuclear power plants; the minimization of their eventual consequences; and ultimately, a full understanding of the real risks connected with NPPs. At the European Commission Joint Research Centre's Institute for Transuranium Elements, a laser-heating and fast radiance spectro-pyrometry facility is used for the laboratory simulation, on a small scale, of NPP core meltdown, the most common type of severe accident (SA) that can occur in a nuclear reactor as a consequence of a failure of the cooling system. This simulation tool permits fast and effective high-temperature measurements on real nuclear materials, such as plutonium and minor actinide-containing fission fuel samples. In this respect, and in its capability to produce large amount of data concerning materials under extreme conditions, the current experimental approach is certainly unique. For current and future concepts of NPP, example results are presented on the melting behavior of some different types of nuclear fuels: uranium-plutonium oxides, carbides, and nitrides. Results on the high-temperature interaction of oxide fuels with containment materials are also briefly shown. PMID:29286382

Advocating for Health and Safety through Social Media--Linked In!

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Carreon, Amie Klein; Peoples, JaNiene; Shipley, Meagan; Wilson, Kelly; Ramirez, Cameron

2016-01-01

Excessive drinking among college students, which is influenced by an array of factors ranging from campus norms to membership in student organizations, has been linked to consequences including motor vehicle accidents, cognitive deficits, arrests, overdoses, assaults, and death. Considering the severity of consequences related to drinking,…

Environmental Aftermath of the Radiation Accident at Tomsk-7

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Porfiriev, Boris N.; Porfiriev, Boris N.

1996-01-01

An analysis is presented of the environmental effects of the most serious radiation accident recorded after Chernobyl, which occurred in the formerly secret town of Tomsk-7 in Siberia, Russia, on 6, April 1993. Fortunately, it appears not to have become a major industrial crisis or disaster. The causes of the accident are described. It is argued that a mixture of both objective and subjective prerequisites, including specific human, organizational, and technological factors, were responsible for the explosion or directly facilitated it. The Tomsk-7 accident’s ecological, medical, social, and psychological consequences are discussed.

Evacuation areas for transportation accidents involving propellant tank pressure bursts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Siewert, R. D.

1972-01-01

Evacuation areas are defined for those transportation accidents where volatile chemical propellant tanks are exposed to fire in the wreckage and eventually explode with consequent risks from fragments in surrounding populated areas. An evacuation area with a minimum radius of 600 m (2000 ft) is recommended to limit the statistical probability of fatality to one in 100 such accidents. The result was made possible by the derivation of a distribution function of distances reached by fragments from bursting chemical car tanks. Data concerning fragments was obtained from reports or tank car pressure bursts between 1958 and 1971.

Comprehensive analysis of atmospheric radionuclides just after the Fukushima accident

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsuruta, Haruo; Oura, Yasuji; Ebihara, Mitsuru; Ohara, Toshimasa; Moriguchi, Yuichi; Nakajima, Teruyuki

2017-04-01

Even six years passed after the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FD1NPP) accident, we still have large uncertainty for atmospheric transport and deposition models, the estimate of release rate of source terms and of internal exposure from inhalation. For our better understanding and to reduce the uncertainty, we thoroughly analyzed all the published data of radionuclides such as Cs-137, I-131 and Xe-133, and of radiation dose rates at many monitoring sites in eastern Japan. We also retrieved the spatio-temporal distributions of Cs-137 just after the accident by using the unique dataset of hourly radionuclides in atmospheric aerosols collected on the used filter-tapes installed in the suspended particulate matter (SPM) monitors operated at more than 100 stations in the air pollution monitoring network of Japan. The most important findings are summarized as follows. Analyzing the hourly Cs-137 concentrations at two SPM stations located within 20 km from the FD1NPP, we revealed the complicated behavior of plumes and atmospheric radionuclides near the FD1NPP just after the accident. The transport pathways to the northwestern and northern areas from the FD1NPP are clarified especially on March 12-21, 2011. Analysis of the published data clearly shows that atmospheric ratio of I-131/Cs-137 (=R) was mainly divided into two groups, one (R≦10) is for the plumes before March 21, 2011, and the other (R>100) is after that day. These two groups are consistent in all the measured sites, whether the sites are in the Fukushima prefecture or in the Tokyo Metropolitan area. These results are expected partially to identify the source term for each plume.

Learning from Tragedy: Student Affairs Leadership Following College Campus Disasters

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Treadwell, Katie L.

2017-01-01

The phenomenological study illuminated the lived experience of senior-level student affairs administrators who encountered high-profile crises, such as natural disasters, intentional violence, or accidents. In the midst of unimaginable tragedy, their lived experience was defined by: uncertainty and fear, heightened awareness, personal impact, and…

Industrial accidents triggered by lightning.

PubMed

Renni, Elisabetta; Krausmann, Elisabeth; Cozzani, Valerio

2010-12-15

Natural disasters can cause major accidents in chemical facilities where they can lead to the release of hazardous materials which in turn can result in fires, explosions or toxic dispersion. Lightning strikes are the most frequent cause of major accidents triggered by natural events. In order to contribute towards the development of a quantitative approach for assessing lightning risk at industrial facilities, lightning-triggered accident case histories were retrieved from the major industrial accident databases and analysed to extract information on types of vulnerable equipment, failure dynamics and damage states, as well as on the final consequences of the event. The most vulnerable category of equipment is storage tanks. Lightning damage is incurred by immediate ignition, electrical and electronic systems failure or structural damage with subsequent release. Toxic releases and tank fires tend to be the most common scenarios associated with lightning strikes. Oil, diesel and gasoline are the substances most frequently released during lightning-triggered Natech accidents. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Consequences of the radiation accident at the Mayak production association in 1957 (the 'Kyshtym Accident').

PubMed

Akleyev, A V; Krestinina, L Yu; Degteva, M O; Tolstykh, E I

2017-09-01

This paper presents an overview of the nuclear accident that occurred at the Mayak Production Association (PA) in the Russian Federation on 29 September 1957, often referred to as 'Kyshtym Accident', when 20 MCi (740 PBq) of radionuclides were released by a chemical explosion in a radioactive waste storage tank. 2 MCi (74 PBq) spread beyond the Mayak PA site to form the East Urals Radioactive Trace (EURT). The paper describes the accident and gives brief characteristics of the efficacy of the implemented protective measures that made it possible to considerably reduce doses to the exposed population. The paper also provides retrospective dosimetry estimates for the members of the EURT Cohort (EURTC) which comprises approximately 21 400 people. During the first two years after the accident a decrease in the group average leukocyte (mainly due to neutrophils and lymphocytes) and thrombocyte count was observed in the population. At later dates an increased excess relative risk of solid cancer incidence and mortality was found in the EURTC.

Study on quantitative risk assessment model of the third party damage for natural gas pipelines based on fuzzy comprehensive assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qiu, Zeyang; Liang, Wei; Wang, Xue; Lin, Yang; Zhang, Meng

2017-05-01

As an important part of national energy supply system, transmission pipelines for natural gas are possible to cause serious environmental pollution, life and property loss in case of accident. The third party damage is one of the most significant causes for natural gas pipeline system accidents, and it is very important to establish an effective quantitative risk assessment model of the third party damage for reducing the number of gas pipelines operation accidents. Against the third party damage accident has the characteristics such as diversity, complexity and uncertainty, this paper establishes a quantitative risk assessment model of the third party damage based on Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation (FCE). Firstly, risk sources of third party damage should be identified exactly, and the weight of factors could be determined via improved AHP, finally the importance of each factor is calculated by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model. The results show that the quantitative risk assessment model is suitable for the third party damage of natural gas pipelines and improvement measures could be put forward to avoid accidents based on the importance of each factor.

Continuously improving safety of nuclear installations: An approach to be reinforced after the Fukushima accident

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Repussard, Jacques; Schwarz, Michel

2012-05-01

After the Three Mile Island accident in 1979 and the Chernobyl accident in 1986, the Fukushima accident shows that the probability of a core meltdown accident in an LWR (Light Water Reactor) has been largely underestimated. The consequences of such an accident are unacceptable: except in the case of TMI2 (Three Mile Island 2) large areas around the damaged plants are contaminated for decades and populations have to be relocated for long periods. This article presents the French approach which consists in improving continuously the safety of the Nuclear Power Plants (NPP) on the basis of lessons learned from operating experience and from the progress in R&D (Research and Development). It details the key role played by IRSN (Institut de radioprotection et de sûreté nucléaire), the French TSO (Technical and scientific Safety Organization), and shows how the Fukushima accident contributes to this approach in improving NPP robustness. It concludes on the necessity to keep on networking TSOs, to share knowledge as well as R&D resources, with the ultimate goal of enhancing and harmonizing nuclear safety worldwide.

United States Department of Energy severe accident research following the Fukushima Daiichi accidents

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Farmer, M. T.; Corradini, M.; Rempe, J.

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has played a major role in the U.S. response to the events at Fukushima Daiichi. During the first several weeks following the accident, U.S. assistance efforts were guided by results from a significant and diverse set of analyses. In the months that followed, a coordinated analysis activity aimed at gaining a more thorough understanding of the accident sequence was completed using laboratory-developed, system-level best-estimate accident analysis codes, while a parallel analysis was conducted by U.S. industry. A comparison of predictions for Unit 1 from these two studies indicated significant differences between MAAP and MELCORmore » results for key plant parameters, such as in-core hydrogen production. On that basis, a crosswalk was completed to determine the key modeling variations that led to these differences. In parallel with these activities, it became clear that there was a need to perform a technology gap evaluation on accident-tolerant components and severe accident analysis methodologies with the goal of identifying any data and/or knowledge gaps that may exist given the current state of light water reactor (LWR) severe accident research and augmented by insights from Fukushima. In addition, there is growing international recognition that data from Fukushima could significantly reduce uncertainties related to severe accident progression, particularly for boiling water reactors. On these bases, a group of U. S. experts in LWR safety and plant operations was convened by the DOE Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE) to complete technology gap analysis and Fukushima forensics data needs identification activities. The results from these activities were used as the basis for refining DOE-NE's severe accident research and development (R&D) plan. Finally, this paper provides a high-level review of DOE-sponsored R&D efforts in these areas, including planned activities on accident-tolerant components and accident analysis methods.« less

United States Department of Energy severe accident research following the Fukushima Daiichi accidents

DOE PAGES

Farmer, M. T.; Corradini, M.; Rempe, J.; ...

2016-11-02

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has played a major role in the U.S. response to the events at Fukushima Daiichi. During the first several weeks following the accident, U.S. assistance efforts were guided by results from a significant and diverse set of analyses. In the months that followed, a coordinated analysis activity aimed at gaining a more thorough understanding of the accident sequence was completed using laboratory-developed, system-level best-estimate accident analysis codes, while a parallel analysis was conducted by U.S. industry. A comparison of predictions for Unit 1 from these two studies indicated significant differences between MAAP and MELCORmore » results for key plant parameters, such as in-core hydrogen production. On that basis, a crosswalk was completed to determine the key modeling variations that led to these differences. In parallel with these activities, it became clear that there was a need to perform a technology gap evaluation on accident-tolerant components and severe accident analysis methodologies with the goal of identifying any data and/or knowledge gaps that may exist given the current state of light water reactor (LWR) severe accident research and augmented by insights from Fukushima. In addition, there is growing international recognition that data from Fukushima could significantly reduce uncertainties related to severe accident progression, particularly for boiling water reactors. On these bases, a group of U. S. experts in LWR safety and plant operations was convened by the DOE Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE) to complete technology gap analysis and Fukushima forensics data needs identification activities. The results from these activities were used as the basis for refining DOE-NE's severe accident research and development (R&D) plan. Finally, this paper provides a high-level review of DOE-sponsored R&D efforts in these areas, including planned activities on accident-tolerant components and accident analysis methods.« less

Analysis of construction accidents in Turkey and responsible parties.

PubMed

Gürcanli, G Emre; Müngen, Uğur

2013-01-01

Construction is one of the world's biggest industry that includes jobs as diverse as building, civil engineering, demolition, renovation, repair and maintenance. Construction workers are exposed to a wide variety of hazards. This study analyzes 1,117 expert witness reports which were submitted to criminal and labour courts. These reports are from all regions of the country and cover the period 1972-2008. Accidents were classified by the consequence of the incident, time and main causes of the accident, construction type, occupation of the victim, activity at time of the accident and party responsible for the accident. Falls (54.1%), struck by thrown/falling object (12.9%), structural collapses (9.9%) and electrocutions (7.5%) rank first four places. The accidents were most likely between the hours 15:00 and 17:00 (22.6%), 10:00-12:00 (18.7%) and just after the lunchtime (9.9%). Additionally, the most common accidents were further divided into sub-types. Expert-witness assessments were used to identify the parties at fault and what acts of negligence typically lead to accidents. Nearly two thirds of the faulty and negligent acts are carried out by the employers and employees are responsible for almost one third of all cases.

Precursors of dangerous substances formed in the loss of control of chemical systems.

PubMed

Cozzani, V; Zanelli, S

1999-03-01

Article 2 of Directive 96/82/EC on the control of major accident hazards caused by dangerous substances requires to consider also the hazards due to the dangerous substances "which it is believed may be generated during loss of control of an industrial chemical process", although no generally accepted guidelines are available for the identification of these substances. In the present study, the accidents involving the unwanted formation of dangerous substances as a consequence of the loss of control of chemical systems were investigated. A specifically developed database was used, containing data on more than 400 of these accidents and on the substances involved. The hazardous substances formed in the accidents and the precursors of these substances were identified. The influence of accident characteristics on the substances formed was investigated. In the context of the application of Directive 96/82/EC, an accident severity index and a hazard rating of the precursors of dangerous substances formed in the accidents were proposed. A lumping approach was used in order to develop schemes for the preliminary identification of substances that may be formed in the loss of control of chemical system. The results of accident analysis were used to test the schemes developed.

Consequences of severe nuclear accidents in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seibert, Petra; Arnold, Delia; Mraz, Gabriele; Arnold, Nikolaus; Gufler, Klaus; Kromp-Kolb, Helga; Kromp, Wolfgang; Sutter, Philipp

2013-04-01

A first part of the presentation is devoted to the consequences of the severe accident in the 1986 Chernobyl NPP. It lead to a substantial radioactive contaminated of large parts of Europe and thus raised the awareness for off-site nuclear accident consequences. Spatial patterns of the (transient) contamination of the air and (persistent) contamination of the ground were studied by both measurements and model simulations. For a variety of reasons, ground contamination measurements have variability at a range of spatial scales. Results will be reviewed and discussed. Model simulations, including inverse modelling, have shown that the standard source term as defined in the ATMES study (1990) needs to be updated. Sensitive measurements of airborne activities still reveal the presence of low levels of airborne radiocaesium over the northern hemisphere which stems from resuspension. Over time scales of months and years, the distribution of radionuclides in the Earth system is constantly changing, for example relocated within plants, between plants and soil, in the soil, and into water bodies. Motivated by the permanent risk of transboundary impacts from potential major nuclear accidents, the multidisciplinary project flexRISK (see http://flexRISK.boku.ac.at) has been carried out from 2009 to 2012 in Austria to quantify such risks and hazards. An overview of methods and results of flexRISK is given as a second part of the presentation. For each of the 228 NPPs, severe accidents were identified together with relevant inventories, release fractions, and release frequencies. Then, Europe-wide dispersion and dose calculations were performed for 2788 cases, using the Lagrangian particle model FLEXPART. Maps of single-case results as well as various aggregated risk parameters were produced. It was found that substantial consequences (intervention measures) are possible for distances up to 500-1000 km, and occur more frequently for a distance range up to 100-300 km, which is in agreement with Chernobyl experiences. However, emergency planning presently is still often focussing on too small areas. In reality, almost all of Europe should be prepared for nuclear disaster. The project investigated also the effect of a simple phase-out scenario. A regional phase-out policy is effective for reducing or even eliminating high damage in the respective regions. It should also be mentioned that risk distribution depends strongly on accident frequency, but this parameter is highly uncertain. The work in flexRISK was funded by the Austrian Climate and Energy Fund (KLI.EN).

Investigations on optimization of accident management measures following a station blackout accident in a VVER-1000 pressurized water reactor

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tusheva, P.; Schaefer, F.; Kliem, S.

2012-07-01

The reactor safety issues are of primary importance for preserving the health of the population and ensuring no release of radioactivity and fission products into the environment. A part of the nuclear research focuses on improvement of the safety of existing nuclear power plants. Studies, research and efforts are a continuing process at improving the safety and reliability of existing and newly developed nuclear power plants at prevention of a core melt accident. Station blackout (loss of AC power supply) is one of the dominant accidents taken into consideration at performing accident analysis. In case of multiple failures of safetymore » systems it leads to a severe accident. To prevent an accident to turn into a severe one or to mitigate the consequences, accident management measures must be performed. The present paper outlines possibilities for application and optimization of accident management measures following a station blackout accident. Assessed is the behaviour of the nuclear power plant during a station blackout accident without accident management measures and with application of primary/secondary side oriented accident management measures. Discussed are the possibilities for operators ' intervention and the influence of the performed accident management measures on the course of the accident. Special attention has been paid to the effectiveness of the passive feeding and physical phenomena having an influence on the system behaviour. The performed simulations show that the effectiveness of the secondary side feeding procedure can be limited due to an early evaporation or flashing effects in the feed water system. The analyzed cases show that the effectiveness of the accident management measures strongly depends on the initiation criteria applied for depressurization of the reactor coolant system. (authors)« less

Analysis of multiple tank car releases in train accidents.

PubMed

Liu, Xiang; Liu, Chang; Hong, Yili

2017-10-01

There are annually over two million carloads of hazardous materials transported by rail in the United States. The American railroads use large blocks of tank cars to transport petroleum crude oil and other flammable liquids from production to consumption sites. Being different from roadway transport of hazardous materials, a train accident can potentially result in the derailment and release of multiple tank cars, which may result in significant consequences. The prior literature predominantly assumes that the occurrence of multiple tank car releases in a train accident is a series of independent Bernoulli processes, and thus uses the binomial distribution to estimate the total number of tank car releases given the number of tank cars derailing or damaged. This paper shows that the traditional binomial model can incorrectly estimate multiple tank car release probability by magnitudes in certain circumstances, thereby significantly affecting railroad safety and risk analysis. To bridge this knowledge gap, this paper proposes a novel, alternative Correlated Binomial (CB) model that accounts for the possible correlations of multiple tank car releases in the same train. We test three distinct correlation structures in the CB model, and find that they all outperform the conventional binomial model based on empirical tank car accident data. The analysis shows that considering tank car release correlations would result in a significantly improved fit of the empirical data than otherwise. Consequently, it is prudent to consider alternative modeling techniques when analyzing the probability of multiple tank car releases in railroad accidents. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Application of Non-Deterministic Methods to Assess Modeling Uncertainties for Reinforced Carbon-Carbon Debris Impacts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lyle, Karen H.; Fasanella, Edwin L.; Melis, Matthew; Carney, Kelly; Gabrys, Jonathan

2004-01-01

The Space Shuttle Columbia Accident Investigation Board (CAIB) made several recommendations for improving the NASA Space Shuttle Program. An extensive experimental and analytical program has been developed to address two recommendations related to structural impact analysis. The objective of the present work is to demonstrate the application of probabilistic analysis to assess the effect of uncertainties on debris impacts on Space Shuttle Reinforced Carbon-Carbon (RCC) panels. The probabilistic analysis is used to identify the material modeling parameters controlling the uncertainty. A comparison of the finite element results with limited experimental data provided confidence that the simulations were adequately representing the global response of the material. Five input parameters were identified as significantly controlling the response.

Understanding and acknowledging the ice throw hazard - consequences for regulatory frameworks, risk perception and risk communication

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bredesen, R. E.; Drapalik, M.; Butt, B.

2017-11-01

This study attempts to provide the necessary framework required to make sufficiently informed decisions regarding the safety implications of ice throw. The framework elaborates on how to cope with uncertainties, and how to describe results in a meaningful and useful manner to decision makers. Moreover, it points out the moral, judicial and economical obligations of wind turbine owners such that they are able to minimize risk of ice throws as much as possible. Building on the strength of knowledge as well as accounting for uncertainty are also essential in enabling clear communication with stakeholders on the most important/critical/vital issues. With increasing empirical evidence, one can assign a higher confidence level on the expert opinions on safety. Findings regarding key uncertainties of ice risk assessments are presented here to support the ongoing IEA Wind Task 19's work on creating the international guidelines on ice risk assessment due in 2018 (Krenn et al. 2017)[1-6]. In addition the study also incorporates the findings of a Norwegian information project, which focuses on the ice throw hazard for the public (Bredesen, Flage, Butt, Winterwind 2018)[7-9]. This includes measures to reduce damage and hazard from wind turbines for the general public. Recent theory of risk assessment questions the use of risk criteria for achieving optimum risk reduction and favours the use of the ALARA (as low as reasonably achievable) principle. Given the several practical problems associated with the ALARA approach (e.g. judicial realization), a joint approach, which uses a minimum set of criteria as well as the obligation to meet ALARA is suggested (associated with acceptable cost). The actual decision about acceptance criteria or obligations is a societal one, thus suggestions can be made at best. Risk acceptance, risk perception and risk communication are inextricably linked and should thus never be considered separately. Risk communication can shape risk perception, which again is vital for defining risk acceptance. Moreover, risk communication should be seen as an opportunity to demonstrate trustworthiness and an open, responsible and caring attitude. It is important for the wind industry to avoid accidents: In Winterwind 2017 (Ronsten)[10], the importance for the wind power community to proactively take safety measures for passers-by and service personnel was emphasized: Establishing good practices and communication routines is key to avoid accidents. Visually attractive ways of presenting the risk of ice throw are recommended.

Factors correlated with traffic accidents as a basis for evaluating Advanced Driver Assistance Systems.

PubMed

Staubach, Maria

2009-09-01

This study aims to identify factors which influence and cause errors in traffic accidents and to use these as a basis for information to guide the application and design of driver assistance systems. A total of 474 accidents were examined in depth for this study by means of a psychological survey, data from accident reports, and technical reconstruction information. An error analysis was subsequently carried out, taking into account the driver, environment, and vehicle sub-systems. Results showed that all accidents were influenced by errors as a consequence of distraction and reduced activity. For crossroad accidents, there were further errors resulting from sight obstruction, masked stimuli, focus errors, and law infringements. Lane departure crashes were additionally caused by errors as a result of masked stimuli, law infringements, expectation errors as well as objective and action slips, while same direction accidents occurred additionally because of focus errors, expectation errors, and objective and action slips. Most accidents were influenced by multiple factors. There is a safety potential for Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS), which support the driver in information assimilation and help to avoid distraction and reduced activity. The design of the ADAS is dependent on the specific influencing factors of the accident type.

The Development of Improved Risk Assessment Methods for Use in Industrial Environmental Management Systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Manners, T.K.

2006-07-01

Industrial sites that store or use chemicals are controlled in the UK under the COMAH (Control Of Major Accident Hazards) Regulations 1999 [1] based on their holdings of 'Dangerous Substances'. The COMAH Regulations [1] came into force in 1999 and are the UK's response to the European Union's Seveso II Directive. The purpose of these Regulations [1] is to: - Identify Major Accident Hazards (MAH); - Ensure that control measures are in place to prevent a MAH; - Ensure that mitigatory measures are in place to limit effects if MAH do occur. The UK's Health and Safety Executive (HSE), andmore » the Environment Agency (EA) jointly enforce the Regulations [1]. The fundamental requirement is given in the statement below, which is taken directly from the Regulations [1]. 'Every operator shall take all measures necessary to prevent major accidents and limit their consequences to persons and the environment'. This paper describes the development of a six-step screening methodology designed to identify Major Accidents To The Environment (MATTE) and improved consequence definitions that can be used in risk matrices to define the severity of an environmental fault. The method has been designed to be compatible with existing Environmental Management Systems (EMS) used in the chemical and nuclear industry. (authors)« less

Estimation of fatality and injury risk by means of in-depth fatal accident investigation data.

PubMed

Yannis, George; Papadimitriou, Eleonora; Dupont, Emmanuelle; Martensen, Heike

2010-10-01

In this article the factors affecting fatality and injury risk of road users involved in fatal accidents are analyzed by means of in-depth accident investigation data, with emphasis on parameters not extensively explored in previous research. A fatal accident investigation (FAI) database is used, which includes intermediate-level in-depth data for a harmonized representative sample of 1300 fatal accidents in 7 European countries. The FAI database offers improved potential for analysis, because it includes information on a number of variables that are seldom available, complete, or accurately recorded in road accident databases. However, the fact that only fatal accidents are examined requires for methodological adjustments, namely, the correction for two types of effects on a road user's baseline risk: "accident size" effects, and "relative vulnerability" effects. Fatality and injury risk can be then modeled through multilevel logistic regression models, which account for the hierarchical dependences of the road accident process. The results show that the baseline fatality risk of road users involved in fatal accidents decreases with accident size and increases with the vulnerability of the road user. On the contrary, accident size increases nonfatal injury risk of road users involved in fatal accidents. Other significant effects on fatality and injury risk in fatal accidents include road user age, vehicle type, speed limit, the chain of accident events, vehicle maneuver, and safety equipment. In particular, the presence and use of safety equipment such as seat belt, antilock braking system (ABS), and electronic stability program (ESP) are protection factors for car occupants, especially for those seated at the front seats. Although ABS and ESP systems are typically associated with positive effects on accident occurrence, the results of this research revealed significant related effects on accident severity as well. Moreover, accident consequences are more severe when the most harmful event of the accident occurs later within the accident chain.

Scoping Study Investigating PWR Instrumentation during a Severe Accident Scenario

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rempe, J. L.; Knudson, D. L.; Lutz, R. J.

The accidents at the Three Mile Island Unit 2 (TMI-2) and Fukushima Daiichi Units 1, 2, and 3 nuclear power plants demonstrate the critical importance of accurate, relevant, and timely information on the status of reactor systems during a severe accident. These events also highlight the critical importance of understanding and focusing on the key elements of system status information in an environment where operators may be overwhelmed with superfluous and sometimes conflicting data. While progress in these areas has been made since TMI-2, the events at Fukushima suggests that there may still be a potential need to ensure thatmore » critical plant information is available to plant operators. Recognizing the significant technical and economic challenges associated with plant modifications, it is important to focus on instrumentation that can address these information critical needs. As part of a program initiated by the Department of Energy, Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE), a scoping effort was initiated to assess critical information needs identified for severe accident management and mitigation in commercial Light Water Reactors (LWRs), to quantify the environment instruments monitoring this data would have to survive, and to identify gaps where predicted environments exceed instrumentation qualification envelop (QE) limits. Results from the Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) scoping evaluations are documented in this report. The PWR evaluations were limited in this scoping evaluation to quantifying the environmental conditions for an unmitigated Short-Term Station BlackOut (STSBO) sequence in one unit at the Surry nuclear power station. Results were obtained using the MELCOR models developed for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC)-sponsored State of the Art Consequence Assessment (SOARCA) program project. Results from this scoping evaluation indicate that some instrumentation identified to provide critical information would be exposed to conditions that significantly exceeded QE limits for extended time periods for the low frequency STSBO sequence evaluated in this study. It is recognized that the core damage frequency (CDF) of the sequence evaluated in this scoping effort would be considerably lower if evaluations considered new FLEX equipment being installed by industry. Nevertheless, because of uncertainties in instrumentation response when exposed to conditions beyond QE limits and alternate challenges associated with different sequences that may impact sensor performance, it is recommended that additional evaluations of instrumentation performance be completed to provide confidence that operators have access to accurate, relevant, and timely information on the status of reactor systems for a broad range of challenges associated with risk important severe accident sequences.« less

Accidents and undetermined deaths: re-evaluation of nationwide samples from the Scandinavian countries.

PubMed

Tøllefsen, Ingvild Maria; Thiblin, Ingemar; Helweg-Larsen, Karin; Hem, Erlend; Kastrup, Marianne; Nyberg, Ullakarin; Rogde, Sidsel; Zahl, Per-Henrik; Østevold, Gunvor; Ekeberg, Øivind

2016-05-27

National mortality statistics should be comparable between countries that use the World Health Organization's International Classification of Diseases. Distinguishing between manners of death, especially suicides and accidents, is a challenge. Knowledge about accidents is important in prevention of both accidents and suicides. The aim of the present study was to assess the reliability of classifying deaths as accidents and undetermined manner of deaths in the three Scandinavian countries and to compare cross-national differences. The cause of death registers in Norway, Sweden and Denmark provided data from 2008 for samples of 600 deaths from each country, of which 200 were registered as suicides, 200 as accidents or undetermined manner of deaths and 200 as natural deaths. The information given to the eight experts was identical to the information used by the Cause of Death Register. This included death certificates, and if available external post-mortem examinations, forensic autopsy reports and police reports. In total, 69 % (Sweden and Norway) and 78 % (Denmark) of deaths registered in the official mortality statistics as accidents were confirmed by the experts. In the majority of the cases where disagreement was seen, the experts reclassified accidents to undetermined manner of death, in 26, 25 and 19 % of cases, respectively. Few cases were reclassified as suicides or natural deaths. Among the extracted accidents, the experts agreed least with the official mortality statistics concerning drowning and poisoning accidents. They also reported most uncertainty in these categories of accidents. In a second re-evaluation, where more information was made available, the Norwegian psychiatrist and forensic pathologist increased their agreement with the official mortality statistics from 76 to 87 %, and from 85 to 88 %, respectively, regarding the Norwegian and Swedish datasets. Among the extracted undetermined deaths in the Swedish dataset, the two experts reclassified 22 and 51 %, respectively, to accidents. There was moderate agreement in reclassification of accidents between the official mortality statistics and the experts. In the majority of cases where there was disagreement, accidents were reclassified as undetermined manner of death, and only a small proportion as suicides.

Decision support system for emergency management of oil spill accidents in the Mediterranean Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liubartseva, Svitlana; Coppini, Giovanni; Pinardi, Nadia; De Dominicis, Michela; Lecci, Rita; Turrisi, Giuseppe; Cretì, Sergio; Martinelli, Sara; Agostini, Paola; Marra, Palmalisa; Palermo, Francesco

2016-08-01

This paper presents an innovative web-based decision support system to facilitate emergency management in the case of oil spill accidents, called WITOIL (Where Is The Oil). The system can be applied to create a forecast of oil spill events, evaluate uncertainty of the predictions, and calculate hazards based on historical meteo-oceanographic datasets. To compute the oil transport and transformation, WITOIL uses the MEDSLIK-II oil spill model forced by operational meteo-oceanographic services. Results of the modeling are visualized through Google Maps. A special application for Android is designed to provide mobile access for competent authorities, technical and scientific institutions, and citizens.

Exploratory reconstructability analysis of accident TBI data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zwick, Martin; Carney, Nancy; Nettleton, Rosemary

2018-02-01

This paper describes the use of reconstructability analysis to perform a secondary study of traumatic brain injury data from automobile accidents. Neutral searches were done and their results displayed with a hypergraph. Directed searches, using both variable-based and state-based models, were applied to predict performance on two cognitive tests and one neurological test. Very simple state-based models gave large uncertainty reductions for all three DVs and sizeable improvements in percent correct for the two cognitive test DVs which were equally sampled. Conditional probability distributions for these models are easily visualized with simple decision trees. Confounding variables and counter-intuitive findings are also reported.

Health effects models for nuclear power plant accident consequence analysis: Low LET radiation: Part 2, Scientific bases for health effects models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Abrahamson, S.; Bender, M.; Book, S.

1989-05-01

This report provides dose-response models intended to be used in estimating the radiological health effects of nuclear power plant accidents. Models of early and continuing effects, cancers and thyroid nodules, and genetic effects are provided. Two-parameter Weibull hazard functions are recommended for estimating the risks of early and continuing health effects. Three potentially lethal early effects -- the hematopoietic, pulmonary and gastrointestinal syndromes -- are considered. Linear and linear-quadratic models are recommended for estimating cancer risks. Parameters are given for analyzing the risks of seven types of cancer in adults -- leukemia, bone, lung, breast, gastrointestinal, thyroid and ''other''. Themore » category, ''other'' cancers, is intended to reflect the combined risks of multiple myeloma, lymphoma, and cancers of the bladder, kidney, brain, ovary, uterus and cervix. Models of childhood cancers due to in utero exposure are also provided. For most cancers, both incidence and mortality are addressed. Linear and linear-quadratic models are also recommended for assessing genetic risks. Five classes of genetic disease -- dominant, x-linked, aneuploidy, unbalanced translocation and multifactorial diseases --are considered. In addition, the impact of radiation-induced genetic damage on the incidence of peri-implantation embryo losses is discussed. The uncertainty in modeling radiological health risks is addressed by providing central, upper, and lower estimates of all model parameters. Data are provided which should enable analysts to consider the timing and severity of each type of health risk. 22 refs., 14 figs., 51 tabs.« less

Accident epidemiology and the U.S. chemical industry: accident history and worst-case data from RMP*Info.

PubMed

Kleindorfer, Paul R; Belke, James C; Elliott, Michael R; Lee, Kiwan; Lowe, Robert A; Feldman, Harold I

2003-10-01

This article reports on the data collected on one of the most ambitious government-sponsored environmental data acquisition projects of all time, the Risk Management Plan (RMP) data collected under section 112(r) of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990. This RMP Rule 112(r) was triggered by the Bhopal accident in 1984 and led to the requirement that each qualifying facility develop and file with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency a Risk Management Plan (RMP) as well as accident history data for the five-year period preceding the filing of the RMP. These data were collected in 1999-2001 on more than 15,000 facilities in the United States that store or use listed toxic or flammable chemicals believed to be a hazard to the environment or to human health of facility employees or off-site residents of host communities. The resulting database, RMP*Info, has become a key resource for regulators and researchers concerned with the frequency and severity of accidents, and the underlying facility-specific factors that are statistically associated with accident and injury rates. This article analyzes which facilities actually filed under the Rule and presents results on accident frequencies and severities available from the RMP*Info database. This article also presents summaries of related results from RMP*Info on Offsite Consequence Analysis (OCA), an analytical estimate of the potential consequences of hypothetical worst-case and alternative accidental releases on the public and environment around the facility. The OCA data have become a key input in the evaluation of site security assessment and mitigation policies for both government planners as well as facility managers and their insurers. Following the survey of the RMP*Info data, we discuss the rich set of policy decisions that may be informed by research based on these data.

Did liberalising bar hours decrease traffic accidents?

PubMed

Green, Colin P; Heywood, John S; Navarro, Maria

2014-05-01

Legal bar closing times in England and Wales have historically been early and uniform. Recent legislation liberalised closing times with the object of reducing social problems thought associated with drinking to "beat the clock." Indeed, using both difference in difference and synthetic control approaches we show that one consequence of this liberalisation was a decrease in traffic accidents. This decrease is heavily concentrated among younger drivers. Moreover, we provide evidence that the effect was most pronounced in the hours of the week directly affected by the liberalisation: late nights and early mornings on weekends. This evidence survives a series of robustness checks and suggests at least one socially positive consequence of extending bar hours. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

ORNL rod-bundle heat-transfer test data. Volume 2. Thermal-Hydraulic Test Facility experimental data report for test 3. 03. 6AR - transient film boiling in upflow

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mullins, C. B.; Felde, D. K.; Sutton, A. G.

1982-04-01

Reduced instrument responses are presented for Thermal-Hydraulic Test Facility (THTF) Test 3.03.6AR. This test was conducted by members of the ORNL Pressurized-Water-Reactor (PWR) Blowdown Heat Transfer (BDHT) Separate-Effects Program on May 21, 1980. Objective was to investigate heat transfer phenomena believed to occur in PWRs during accidents, including small and large break loss-of-coolant accidents. Test 3.03.6AR was conducted to obtain transient film boiling data in rod bundle geometry under reactor accident-type conditions. The primary purpose of this report is to make the reduced instrument responses for THTF Test 3.03.6AR available. Included in the report are uncertainties in the instrument responses,more » calculated mass flows, and calculated rod powers.« less

Communication about scientific uncertainty in environmental nanoparticle research - a comparison of scientific literature and mass media

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heidmann, Ilona; Milde, Jutta

2014-05-01

The research about the fate and behavior of engineered nanoparticles in the environment is despite its wide applications still in the early stages. 'There is a high level of scientific uncertainty in nanoparticle research' is often stated in the scientific community. Knowledge about these uncertainties might be of interest to other scientists, experts and laymen. But how could these uncertainties be characterized and are they communicated within the scientific literature and the mass media? To answer these questions, the current state of scientific knowledge about scientific uncertainty through the example of environmental nanoparticle research was characterized and the communication of these uncertainties within the scientific literature is compared with its media coverage in the field of nanotechnologies. The scientific uncertainty within the field of environmental fate of nanoparticles is by method uncertainties and a general lack of data concerning the fate and effects of nanoparticles and their mechanisms in the environment, and by the uncertain transferability of results to the environmental system. In the scientific literature, scientific uncertainties, their sources, and consequences are mentioned with different foci and to a different extent. As expected, the authors in research papers focus on the certainty of specific results within their specific research question, whereas in review papers, the uncertainties due to a general lack of data are emphasized and the sources and consequences are discussed in a broader environmental context. In the mass media, nanotechnology is often framed as rather certain and positive aspects and benefits are emphasized. Although reporting about a new technology, only in one-third of the reports scientific uncertainties are mentioned. Scientific uncertainties are most often mentioned together with risk and they arise primarily from unknown harmful effects to human health. Environmental issues itself are seldom mentioned. Scientific uncertainties, sources, and consequences have been most widely discussed in the review papers. Research papers and mass media tend to emphasize more the certainty of their scientific results or the benefits of the nanotechnology applications. Neither the broad spectrum nor any specifications of uncertainties have been communicated. This indicates that there has been no effective dialogue over scientific uncertainty with the public so far.

77 FR 61446 - Proposed Revision Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Severe Accident Evaluation for New Reactors

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-10-09

... documents online in the NRC Library at http://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/adams.html . To begin the search... of digital instrumentation and control system PRAs, including common cause failures in PRAs and uncertainty analysis associated with new reactor digital systems, and (4) incorporation of additional...

77 FR 66649 - Proposed Revision to Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Severe Accident Evaluation for New Reactors

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-11-06

... in the NRC Library at http://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/adams.html . To begin the search, select ``ADAMS... of digital instrumentation and control system PRAs, including common cause failures in PRAs and uncertainty analysis associated with new reactor digital systems, and (4) incorporation of additional...

'Systemic Failures' and 'Human Error' in Canadian TSB Aviation Reports Between 1996 and 2002

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Holloway, C. M.; Johnson, C. W.

2004-01-01

This paper describes the results of an independent analysis of the primary and contributory causes of aviation accidents in Canada between 1996 and 2003. The purpose of the study was to assess the comparative frequency of a range of causal factors in the reporting of these adverse events. Our results suggest that the majority of these high consequence accidents were attributed to human error. A large number of reports also mentioned wider systemic issues, including the managerial and regulatory context of aviation operations. These issues are more likely to appear as contributory rather than primary causes in this set of accident reports.

RELEASE OF DRIED RADIOACTIVE WASTE MATERIALS TECHNICAL BASIS DOCUMENT

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

KOZLOWSKI, S.D.

2007-05-30

This technical basis document was developed to support RPP-23429, Preliminary Documented Safety Analysis for the Demonstration Bulk Vitrification System (PDSA) and RPP-23479, Preliminary Documented Safety Analysis for the Contact-Handled Transuranic Mixed (CH-TRUM) Waste Facility. The main document describes the risk binning process and the technical basis for assigning risk bins to the representative accidents involving the release of dried radioactive waste materials from the Demonstration Bulk Vitrification System (DBVS) and to the associated represented hazardous conditions. Appendices D through F provide the technical basis for assigning risk bins to the representative dried waste release accident and associated represented hazardous conditionsmore » for the Contact-Handled Transuranic Mixed (CH-TRUM) Waste Packaging Unit (WPU). The risk binning process uses an evaluation of the frequency and consequence of a given representative accident or represented hazardous condition to determine the need for safety structures, systems, and components (SSC) and technical safety requirement (TSR)-level controls. A representative accident or a represented hazardous condition is assigned to a risk bin based on the potential radiological and toxicological consequences to the public and the collocated worker. Note that the risk binning process is not applied to facility workers because credible hazardous conditions with the potential for significant facility worker consequences are considered for safety-significant SSCs and/or TSR-level controls regardless of their estimated frequency. The controls for protection of the facility workers are described in RPP-23429 and RPP-23479. Determination of the need for safety-class SSCs was performed in accordance with DOE-STD-3009-94, Preparation Guide for US. Department of Energy Nonreactor Nuclear Facility Documented Safety Analyses, as described below.« less

Mental health consequences of the Chernobyl disaster.

PubMed

Bromet, Evelyn J

2012-03-01

The psychosocial consequences of disasters have been studied for more than 100 years. The most common mental health consequences are depression, anxiety, post-traumatic stress disorder, medically unexplained somatic symptoms, and stigma. The excess morbidity rate of psychiatric disorders in the first year after a disaster is in the order of 20%. Disasters involving radiation are particularly pernicious because the exposure is invisible and universally dreaded, and can pose a long-term threat to health. After the Chernobyl disaster, studies of clean-up workers (liquidators) and adults from contaminated areas found a two-fold increase in post-traumatic stress and other mood and anxiety disorders and significantly poorer subjective ratings of health. Among liquidators, the most important risk factor was severity of exposure. In general population samples, the major risk factor was perceived exposure to harmful levels of radiation. These findings are consistent with results from A-bomb survivors and populations studied after the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant accident. With regard to children, apart from findings from ecological studies that lack direct data on radiation or other teratologic exposures and local studies in Kiev, the epidemiologic evidence suggests that neither radiation exposure nor the stress of growing up in the shadow of the accident was associated with emotional disorders, cognitive dysfunction, or impaired academic performance. Thus, based on the studies of adults, the Chernobyl Forum concluded that mental health was the largest public health problem unleashed by the accident. Since mental health is a leading cause of disability, physical morbidity, and mortality, health monitoring after radiation accidents like Fukushima should include standard measures of well-being. Moreover, given the comorbidity of mental and physical health, the findings support the value of training non-psychiatrist physicians in recognizing and treating common mental health problems like depression in Fukushima patients.

Critical processes and parameters in the development of accident tolerant fuels drop-in capsule irradiation tests

DOE PAGES

Barrett, K. E.; Ellis, K. D.; Glass, C. R.; ...

2015-12-01

The goal of the Accident Tolerant Fuel (ATF) program is to develop the next generation of Light Water Reactor (LWR) fuels with improved performance, reliability, and safety characteristics during normal operations and accident conditions and with reduced waste generation. An irradiation test series has been defined to assess the performance of proposed ATF concepts under normal LWR operating conditions. The Phase I ATF irradiation test series is planned to be performed as a series of drop-in capsule tests to be irradiated in the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) operated by the Idaho National Laboratory (INL). Design, analysis, and fabrication processes formore » ATR drop-in capsule experiment preparation are presented in this paper to demonstrate the importance of special design considerations, parameter sensitivity analysis, and precise fabrication and inspection techniques for figure innovative materials used in ATF experiment assemblies. A Taylor Series Method sensitivity analysis approach was used to identify the most critical variables in cladding and rodlet stress, temperature, and pressure calculations for design analyses. The results showed that internal rodlet pressure calculations are most sensitive to the fission gas release rate uncertainty while temperature calculations are most sensitive to cladding I.D. and O.D. dimensional uncertainty. The analysis showed that stress calculations are most sensitive to rodlet internal pressure uncertainties, however the results also indicated that the inside radius, outside radius, and internal pressure were all magnified as they propagate through the stress equation. This study demonstrates the importance for ATF concept development teams to provide the fabricators as much information as possible about the material properties and behavior observed in prototype testing, mock-up fabrication and assembly, and chemical and mechanical testing of the materials that may have been performed in the concept development phase. Special handling, machining, welding, and inspection of materials, if known, should also be communicated to the experiment fabrication and inspection team.« less

Relatively certain! Comparative thinking reduces uncertainty.

PubMed

Mussweiler, Thomas; Posten, Ann-Christin

2012-02-01

Comparison is one of the most ubiquitous and versatile mechanisms in human information processing. Previous research demonstrates that one consequence of comparative thinking is increased judgmental efficiency: comparison allows for quicker judgments without a loss in accuracy. We hypothesised that a second potential consequence of comparative thinking is reduced judgmental uncertainty. We examined this possibility in three experiments using three different domains of judgment and three different measures of uncertainty. Results consistently demonstrate that procedurally priming participants to rely more heavily on comparative thinking during judgment induces them to feel more certain about their judgment. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Analysis of Construction Accidents in Turkey and Responsible Parties

PubMed Central

GÜRCANLI, G. Emre; MÜNGEN, Uğur

2013-01-01

Construction is one of the world’s biggest industry that includes jobs as diverse as building, civil engineering, demolition, renovation, repair and maintenance. Construction workers are exposed to a wide variety of hazards. This study analyzes 1,117 expert witness reports which were submitted to criminal and labour courts. These reports are from all regions of the country and cover the period 1972–2008. Accidents were classified by the consequence of the incident, time and main causes of the accident, construction type, occupation of the victim, activity at time of the accident and party responsible for the accident. Falls (54.1%), struck by thrown/falling object (12.9%), structural collapses (9.9%) and electrocutions (7.5%) rank first four places. The accidents were most likely between the hours 15:00 and 17:00 (22.6%), 10:00–12:00 (18.7%) and just after the lunchtime (9.9%). Additionally, the most common accidents were further divided into sub-types. Expert-witness assessments were used to identify the parties at fault and what acts of negligence typically lead to accidents. Nearly two thirds of the faulty and negligent acts are carried out by the employers and employees are responsible for almost one third of all cases. PMID:24077446

Accident study of torrential protective structures based on the French RTM database

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boncompain, Ingrid; Quefféléan, Yann; Carladous, Simon

2017-04-01

Torrential protective structures such as dikes, sediment traps, and check dams aim to reduce damage on elements at risk. They are built given a reference scenario. Nevertheless, this scenario can be exceeded or structures can fail because of their design or their ageing. We later talk about "accidents". The 1996 Aras disaster near Biescas (Spain) showed that consequences can be significant: 35 of 40 check dams were destroyed which involved 87 fatalities in a campsite. The accident probability and its consequences must be taken into account to analyze risk. Databases are useful tools to extract needed information. In France, the Restoration of Mountainous Areas department (RTM) has been public funded to develop a database, specific to mountainous areas (the Alps and the Pyrenees). Almost 12 500 check dams, 80 sediment traps and 600 dikes were registered in public forests in 2011. These samples were assumed significant for check dams and sediment traps but not for dikes because the most part was missing. In parallel, more than 31 000 torrential events were registered. Given these elements, an accident study was developed. We first extracted 1 925 events with accidents on protective structures: 39 % occurred during the 19th century and 53 % have occurred since 1900. Sediment traps were involved in 37 events, check dams in 336, and dikes in 1488. Then, a detailed analysis was specifically carried out for check dams. Event phenomena were extracted: torrential flood, liquid flood, snow avalanche, rock fall, and landslide. Accident typology was also specified: scouring, breaking of several check dams, total or partial destruction of one structure, overflowing. Causes of accidents on check dams were first analyzed. Torrential floods were responsible of 85 % of events (284 of 336) even if other phenomena must be also taken into account. Almost 45 % of events (152 of 336) involved total destruction of one or several check dams. Taking into account events for the last 150 years, 30 events were registered with destruction of several check dams: the annual probability of occurrence is 3.10-4. Analyzing consequences, only 11 of previously retained events (1925) were registered with fatalities. Finally, these quantitative elements were compared to qualitative feedback analysis from field practitioners and were illustrated with the 1987 Saint-Antoine event, in Modane. The total or partial destruction of 25 check dams released between 20 000 and 30 000 m3, which was one third of the estimated debris flow volume (85 000 m3) which damaged an industrial area. The lack of their maintenance partially explained this accident. As a conclusion, we must keep in mind that these results are limited to available data (all events have not been necessarily reported). Accidents on check dams are rare according to these data. It can be due to their general maintenance. This first analysis could be improved taking into account expert analysis, completing with information from other countries databases and formalizing the approach through a dependability analysis framework.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Clayton, Daniel James; Lipinski, Ronald J.; Bechtel, Ryan D.

As compact and light weight power sources with reliable, long lives, Radioisotope Power Systems (RPSs) have made space missions to explore the solar system possible. Due to the hazardous material that can be released during a launch accident, the potential health risk of an accident must be quantified, so that appropriate launch approval decisions can be made. One part of the risk estimation involves modeling the response of the RPS to potential accident environments. Due to the complexity of modeling the full RPS response deterministically on dynamic variables, the evaluation is performed in a stochastic manner with a Monte Carlomore » simulation. The potential consequences can be determined by modeling the transport of the hazardous material in the environment and in human biological pathways. The consequence analysis results are summed and weighted by appropriate likelihood values to give a collection of probabilistic results for the estimation of the potential health risk. This information is used to guide RPS designs, spacecraft designs, mission architecture, or launch procedures to potentially reduce the risk, as well as to inform decision makers of the potential health risks resulting from the use of RPSs for space missions.« less

Effect of the Road Environment on Road Safety in Poland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Budzynski, Marcin; Jamroz, Kazimierz; Antoniuk, Marcin

2017-10-01

Run-off-road accidents tend to be very severe because when a vehicle leaves the road, it will often crash into a solid obstacle (tree, pole, supports, front wall of a culvert, barrier). A statistical analysis of the data shows that Poland’s main roadside hazard is trees and the severity of vehicles striking a tree in a run-off-road crash. The risks are particularly high in north-west Poland with many of the roads lined up with trees. Because of the existing rural road cross-sections, i.e. having trees directly on road edge followed immediately by drainage ditches, vulnerable road users are prevented from using shoulders and made to use the roadway. With no legal definition of the road safety zone in Polish regulations, attempts to remove roadside trees lead to major conflicts with environmental stakeholders. This is why a compromise should be sought between the safety of road users and protection of the natural environment and the aesthetics of the road experience. Rather than just cut the trees, other road safety measures should be used where possible to treat the hazardous spots by securing trees and obstacles and through speed management. Accidents that are directly related to the road environment fall into the following categories: hitting a tree, hitting a barrier, hitting a utility pole or sign, vehicle rollover on the shoulder, vehicle rollover on slopes or in ditch. The main consequence of a roadside hazard is not the likelihood of an accident itself but of its severity. Poland’s roadside accident severity is primarily the result of poor design or operation of road infrastructure. This comes as a consequence of a lack of regulations or poorly defined regulations and failure to comply with road safety standards. The new analytical model was designed as a combination of the different factors and one that will serve as a comprehensive model. It was assumed that it will describe the effect of the roadside on the number of accidents and their consequences. The design of the model was based on recommendations from analysing other models. The assumptions were the following: the model will be used to calculate risk factors and accident severity, the indicators will depend on number of vehicle kilometres travelled or traffic volumes, analyses will be based on accident data: striking a tree, hitting a barrier, hitting a utility pole or sign. Additional data will include roadside information and casualty density measures will be used - killed and injured.

A study of general aviation accidents involving children in 2011.

PubMed

Poland, Kristin M; Marshall, Nora M

2014-08-01

General aviation accidents involving children are rare, but when they do happen, little is known about the children involved, including their age, restraint status, and injuries. This lack of information is due to the fact that the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) did not always collect detailed data about passengers involved in accidents. Consequently, in 2011, NTSB investigators collected detailed information on children involved in general aviation accidents and this report provides a summary of the outcomes. During 2011, 19 general aviation accidents and incidents included 39 children who were 14 yr old and younger. In total, 26 children sustained fatal injuries, 2 sustained serious injuries, 5 sustained minor injuries, and 6 sustained no injuries. All of the children less than 2 yr old were restrained in a child restraint system and sustained no injuries in the accidents. At least one 4-yr-old child would have benefited from being restrained in a child restraint system. In addition, in two accidents, it was determined that children were likely sharing a single seat belt. This year-long data collection regarding children involved in general aviation accidents provided substantial information concerning age, restraint status, and injuries. In response to issues identified, the NTSB made improvements to its aviation data management system to routinely collect this information for future investigations and enable subsequent evaluation of the data regarding child passengers involved in general aviation accidents over the long term.

Incorporating real-time traffic and weather data to explore road accident likelihood and severity in urban arterials.

PubMed

Theofilatos, Athanasios

2017-06-01

The effective treatment of road accidents and thus the enhancement of road safety is a major concern to societies due to the losses in human lives and the economic and social costs. The investigation of road accident likelihood and severity by utilizing real-time traffic and weather data has recently received significant attention by researchers. However, collected data mainly stem from freeways and expressways. Consequently, the aim of the present paper is to add to the current knowledge by investigating accident likelihood and severity by exploiting real-time traffic and weather data collected from urban arterials in Athens, Greece. Random Forests (RF) are firstly applied for preliminary analysis purposes. More specifically, it is aimed to rank candidate variables according to their relevant importance and provide a first insight on the potential significant variables. Then, Bayesian logistic regression as well finite mixture and mixed effects logit models are applied to further explore factors associated with accident likelihood and severity respectively. Regarding accident likelihood, the Bayesian logistic regression showed that variations in traffic significantly influence accident occurrence. On the other hand, accident severity analysis revealed a generally mixed influence of traffic variations on accident severity, although international literature states that traffic variations increase severity. Lastly, weather parameters did not find to have a direct influence on accident likelihood or severity. The study added to the current knowledge by incorporating real-time traffic and weather data from urban arterials to investigate accident occurrence and accident severity mechanisms. The identification of risk factors can lead to the development of effective traffic management strategies to reduce accident occurrence and severity of injuries in urban arterials. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd and National Safety Council. All rights reserved.

[Psychological effects of road accidents: a challenge for public health].

PubMed

Waszkowska, Małgorzata; Merecz, Dorota

2006-01-01

The authors discuss psychological consequences of road accidents and the need for providing support for the victims and their families. The most common psychological effects include mental health problems, increased use of psychotropic drugs, and difficulty in performing occupational functions. Therefore, it is necessary to remodel the system of traffic safety and supplement it with a comprehensive system of support for both direct victims of accidents and their close relatives. To reach this goal, we need to develop optimal conditions for multidisciplinary research to investigate the effects of road accidents in Poland. This would make it possible to design effective psychological treatment and develop an institutional system for relevant support. However, some preventive measures can be taken right now, e.g., early intervention for severely injured victims during their hospital stay or providing support for non-injured victims and their families.

The influence of age, seat belt, time of day, and type of vehicles on road accidents in Kerman, Iran.

PubMed

Mohammadi, Ghorbanali

2009-04-01

Traffic accidents are one of the main external causes of morbidity and mortality in various parts of the world, including Kerman, a city that has experienced rapid growth in the number of cars in the last 5 years. The objective of this article was to identify the influence of age, belt use, time of day, and type of vehicle road accidents of southeastern Iran. This study used data obtained from Kerman police force reports on incidents of road traffic accidents (RTAs). We analyzed the police reports of total road accidents that occurred from 2005 to 2007. The involvement in fatal and non-fatal accidents was determined for females than among males. The analysis of the data indicated that the female drivers have a much better road safety record than male drivers, especially with regards to their involvement in severe traffic accidents. Forty-nine percent of accidents involve passenger cars, which is higher than other type of vehicles. Female drivers were found to be generally safer drivers than their male counterparts; male drivers who did not use seat belts had a higher involvement rate in road traffic accidents. Time of day analyses suggested that the problems of accidents in darkness are not a matter of visibility but a consequence of the way drivers use the roads at night. A number of recommended measures for the improvement of road safety in southeastern Iran are suggested.

Woodworking injuries: a comparative study of work-related and hobby-related accidents.

PubMed

Loisel, F; Bonin, S; Jeunet, L; Pauchot, J; Tropet, Y; Obert, L

2014-10-01

The primary objective of this study was to describe the injury characteristics and demographics of patients injured during woodworking activities, upon their arrival to the emergency department in a regional of France where this industry is prevalent. The secondary objective was to compare patient and injury characteristics for work-related and hobby-related accidents. A cohort of 87 patients who had suffered a woodworking accident over a two-year period was evaluated; 79 were available for follow-up. The context and circumstances of the accident, nature and location of the injuries and patient demographics were recorded. Hobby-related accidents accounted for two-thirds of the accidents (51/79). Most of the injured workers were either loggers (35%) or carpenters (46%). The hand was injured in 53 cases (67%). Work-related accidents resulted in significantly more serious consequences in terms of hospital stay, work stoppage, resumption of work or retraining than hobby-related accidents. For the workplace accidents, 86% occurred on new machines; more than 25% of the machines involved in accidents at home were over 15 years. Sixty-eight per cent of workers were wearing their safety gear, while only 31% of those injured during recreational woodworking wore the appropriate gear. Several elements of prevention should be improved: information about the need to maintain the equipment, protect the worker with suitable clothing, and learn which maneuvers are considered hazardous. Safety gear should be regularly inspected in the workplace. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier SAS.

Tracking buoys research for oil spilling with the wireless charging equipment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cui, Di; Zhao, Ping

2018-03-01

This paper describes thewirelesscharging equipment for achieving oil spill tracking buoys detection in satellite images acquired after tanker accidents or ship oil spill accidents. This information could allow the evolution of residues dumped at sea to be tracked. The validity of this process is demonstrated using several experiment acquired over several regions (Dalian and Tianjin coasts in China), in which a tanker accident has occurred and as a consequence oil spillage has taken place. Thus, this purpose of paper is developed for the active surveillance and rapid response to marine oil spills tracking buoys with wirelesscharging equipmentis important and essential to environment protection. It may appears of leak places for the Wire Charging Equipment for marine oil spills tracking buoys monitoring needs, and achieved instant alarm technology and equipment, guarantees leak occurred timely obtained alarm information. In order toproviding oil spill accidents emergency quickly reaction time and prepared. The maximum degree reduce oil leak and accidents caused influences are ensured.

Managing the Fukushima Challenge

PubMed Central

Suzuki, Atsuyuki

2014-01-01

The Fukushima Daiichi accident raises a fundamental question: Can science and technology prevent the inevitability of serious accidents, especially those with low probabilities and high consequences? This question reminds us of a longstanding challenge with the trans-sciences, originally addressed by Alvin Weinberg well before the Three Mile Island and Chernobyl accidents. This article, revisiting Weinberg's issue, aims at gaining insights from the accident with a special emphasis on the sociotechnical or human behavioral aspects lying behind the accident's causes. In particular, an innovative method for managing the challenge is explored referring to behavioral science approaches to a decision-making process on risk management; such as managing human behavioral risks with information asymmetry, seeking a rational consensus with communicative action, and pursuing procedural rationality through interactions with the outer environment. In short, this article describes the emerging need for Japan to transform its national safety management institutions so that these might be based on interactive communication with parties inside and outside Japan. PMID:24954604

Effect of the Duration Time of a Nuclear Accident on Radiological Health Consequences

PubMed Central

Jeong, Hyojoon; Park, Misun; Jeong, Haesun; Hwang, Wontae; Kim, Eunhan; Han, Moonhee

2014-01-01

This study aimed to quantify the effect of duration time of a nuclear accident on the radiation dose of a densely populated area and the resulting acute health effects. In the case of nuclear accidents, the total emissions of radioactive materials can be classified into several categories. Therefore, the release information is very important for the assessment of risk to the public. We confirmed that when the duration time of the emissions are prolonged to 7 hours, the concentrations of radioactive substances in the ambient air are reduced by 50% compared to that when the duration time of emission is one hour. This means that the risk evaluation using only the first wind direction of an accident is very conservative, so it has to be used as a screening level for the risk assessment. Furthermore, it is judged that the proper control of the emission time of a nuclear accident can minimize the health effects on residents. PMID:24619120

An operational centre for managing major chemical industrial accidents.

PubMed

Kiranoudis, C T; Kourniotis, S P; Christolis, M; Markatos, N C; Zografos, K G; Giannouli, I M; Androutsopoulos, K N; Ziomas, I; Kosmidis, E; Simeonidis, P; Poupkou, N

2002-01-28

The most important characteristic of major chemical accidents, from a societal perspective, is their tendency to produce off-site effects. The extent and severity of the accident may significantly affect the population and the environment of the adjacent areas. Following an accident event, effort should be made to limit such effects. Management decisions should be based on rational and quantitative information based on the site specific circumstances and the possible consequences. To produce such information we have developed an operational centre for managing large-scale industrial accidents. Its architecture involves an integrated framework of geographical information system (GIS) and RDBMS technology systems equipped with interactive communication capabilities. The operational centre was developed for Windows 98 platforms, for the region of Thriasion Pedion of West Attica, where the concentration of industrial activity and storage of toxic chemical is immense within areas of high population density. An appropriate case study is given in order to illuminate the use and necessity of the operational centre.

Moral empiricism and the bias for act-based rules.

PubMed

Ayars, Alisabeth; Nichols, Shaun

2017-10-01

Previous studies on rule learning show a bias in favor of act-based rules, which prohibit intentionally producing an outcome but not merely allowing the outcome. Nichols, Kumar, Lopez, Ayars, and Chan (2016) found that exposure to a single sample violation in which an agent intentionally causes the outcome was sufficient for participants to infer that the rule was act-based. One explanation is that people have an innate bias to think rules are act-based. We suggest an alternative empiricist account: since most rules that people learn are act-based, people form an overhypothesis (Goodman, 1955) that rules are typically act-based. We report three studies that indicate that people can use information about violations to form overhypotheses about rules. In study 1, participants learned either three "consequence-based" rules that prohibited allowing an outcome or three "act-based" rules that prohibiting producing the outcome; in a subsequent learning task, we found that participants who had learned three consequence-based rules were more likely to think that the new rule prohibited allowing an outcome. In study 2, we presented participants with either 1 consequence-based rule or 3 consequence-based rules, and we found that those exposed to 3 such rules were more likely to think that a new rule was also consequence based. Thus, in both studies, it seems that learning 3 consequence-based rules generates an overhypothesis to expect new rules to be consequence-based. In a final study, we used a more subtle manipulation. We exposed participants to examples act-based or accident-based (strict liability) laws and then had them learn a novel rule. We found that participants who were exposed to the accident-based laws were more likely to think a new rule was accident-based. The fact that participants' bias for act-based rules can be shaped by evidence from other rules supports the idea that the bias for act-based rules might be acquired as an overhypothesis from the preponderance of act-based rules. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

[Somatic consequences of cannabis use].

PubMed

Cottencin, Olivier; Bence, Camille; Rolland, Benjamin; Karila, Laurent

2013-12-01

Cannabis can have negative effects in its users, and a range of acute and chronic health problems associated with cannabis use has been dentified. Acute cannabis consumption is rarely lethal but it is associated with an increased risk of motor vehicle accident because of longer reaction time or impaired motor coordination. Chronic effects of cannabis use include generally cardiovascular and respiratory consequences but there are also oral, gastrointestinal, cutaneous and mucous, metabolic, gynecologic and obstetrical, sexual consequences, and cancer But associated tobacco smoking or other potential confounders may explain part of those somatic consequences.

Assessment of trend and seasonality in road accident data: an Iranian case study.

PubMed

Razzaghi, Alireza; Bahrampour, Abbas; Baneshi, Mohammad Reza; Zolala, Farzaneh

2013-06-01

Road traffic accidents and their related deaths have become a major concern, particularly in developing countries. Iran has adopted a series of policies and interventions to control the high number of accidents occurring over the past few years. In this study we used a time series model to understand the trend of accidents, and ascertain the viability of applying ARIMA models on data from Taybad city. This study is a cross-sectional study. We used data from accidents occurring in Taybad between 2007 and 2011. We obtained the data from the Ministry of Health (MOH) and used the time series method with a time lag of one month. After plotting the trend, non-stationary data in mean and variance were removed using Box-Cox transformation and a differencing method respectively. The ACF and PACF plots were used to control the stationary situation. The traffic accidents in our study had an increasing trend over the five years of study. Based on ACF and PACF plots gained after applying Box-Cox transformation and differencing, data did not fit to a time series model. Therefore, neither ARIMA model nor seasonality were observed. Traffic accidents in Taybad have an upward trend. In addition, we expected either the AR model, MA model or ARIMA model to have a seasonal trend, yet this was not observed in this analysis. Several reasons may have contributed to this situation, such as uncertainty of the quality of data, weather changes, and behavioural factors that are not taken into account by time series analysis.

Health consequences of shift work and insufficient sleep.

PubMed

Kecklund, Göran; Axelsson, John

2016-11-01

This review summarises the literature on shift work and its relation to insufficient sleep, chronic diseases, and accidents. It is based on 38 meta-analyses and 24 systematic reviews, with additional narrative reviews and articles used for outlining possible mechanisms by which shift work may cause accidents and adverse health. Evidence shows that the effect of shift work on sleep mainly concerns acute sleep loss in connection with night shifts and early morning shifts. A link also exists between shift work and accidents, type 2 diabetes (relative risk range 1.09-1.40), weight gain, coronary heart disease (relative risk 1.23), stroke (relative risk 1.05), and cancer (relative risk range 1.01-1.32), although the original studies showed mixed results. The relations of shift work to cardiometabolic diseases and accidents mimic those with insufficient sleep. Laboratory studies indicate that cardiometabolic stress and cognitive impairments are increased by shift work, as well as by sleep loss. Given that the health and safety consequences of shift work and insufficient sleep are very similar, they are likely to share common mechanisms. However, additional research is needed to determine whether insufficient sleep is a causal pathway for the adverse health effects associated with shift work. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Estimating probable flaw distributions in PWR steam generator tubes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gorman, J.A.; Turner, A.P.L.

1997-02-01

This paper describes methods for estimating the number and size distributions of flaws of various types in PWR steam generator tubes. These estimates are needed when calculating the probable primary to secondary leakage through steam generator tubes under postulated accidents such as severe core accidents and steam line breaks. The paper describes methods for two types of predictions: (1) the numbers of tubes with detectable flaws of various types as a function of time, and (2) the distributions in size of these flaws. Results are provided for hypothetical severely affected, moderately affected and lightly affected units. Discussion is provided regardingmore » uncertainties and assumptions in the data and analyses.« less

40 CFR 68.67 - Process hazard analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

...) CHEMICAL ACCIDENT PREVENTION PROVISIONS Program 3 Prevention Program § 68.67 Process hazard analysis. (a... instrumentation with alarms, and detection hardware such as hydrocarbon sensors.); (4) Consequences of failure of...

40 CFR 68.67 - Process hazard analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

...) CHEMICAL ACCIDENT PREVENTION PROVISIONS Program 3 Prevention Program § 68.67 Process hazard analysis. (a... instrumentation with alarms, and detection hardware such as hydrocarbon sensors.); (4) Consequences of failure of...

Review of Global Menace of Road Accidents with Special Reference to Malaysia- A Social Perspective

PubMed Central

Kareem, Abdul

2003-01-01

Road accident is ‘a global tragedy’ with ever-rising trend. The goal of this article includes review of the causes and nature of accidents, statistical data regarding road accidents and the economical impact. 1.17 million deaths occur each year worldwide due to road accidents 70 % of which occur in developing countries. 65% of deaths involve pedestrians, 35 % of which are children. Estimates suggest that 23–34 million people are injured worldwide every year in road crashes - a value almost twice that previously estimated. It is estimated that more than 200 U.S. citizens die each year due to road accidents abroad. Every year in Europe, more than 50,000 peoples are killed in road accidents, and more than 150,000 remain disabled. It is a sad fact that the total number of road accidents in Malaysia exceeded 223,000 in 1999. On the average, 16 persons died from these road accidents, every single day in 1999. Lack of attention, reckless driving, lack of proper protection, speeding, bad personal habits, social and behavioral misconduct and inconsiderate drivers of larger vehicles are some of the problems that cause accidents. In Malaysia, motorcycle fatal accidents (60%) warrant a high degree of concern. Young children and senior citizens are found to be in the vulnerable age group. In Malaysia, in 1999 alone, general insurers paid RM1.67 billion or an average of RM4.6 million a day on motor claims. It is now recognized that road traffic accidents represent a major public health problem, because of the high number of victims involved and because of the seriousness of the consequences for themselves and for their families. PMID:23386795

Evaluation of potential severe accidents during low power and shutdown operations at Surry, Unit 1: Analysis of core damage frequency from internal events during mid-loop operations, Appendices E (Sections E.1--E.8). Volume 2, Part 3A

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chu, T.L.; Musicki, Z.; Kohut, P.

1994-06-01

During 1989, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) initiated an extensive program to carefully examine the potential risks during low power and shutdown operations. The program includes two parallel projects being performed by Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) and Sandia National Laboratories (SNL). Two plants, Surry (pressurized water reactor) and Grand Gulf (boiling water reactor), were selected as the plants to be studied. The objectives of the program are to assess the risks of severe accidents initiated during plant operational states other than full power operation and to compare the estimated core damage frequencies, important accident sequences and other qualitative and quantitativemore » results with those accidents initiated during full power operation as assessed in NUREG-1150. The objective of this report is to document the approach utilized in the Surry plant and discuss the results obtained. A parallel report for the Grand Gulf plant is prepared by SNL. This study shows that the core-damage frequency during mid-loop operation at the Surry plant is comparable to that of power operation. The authors recognize that there is very large uncertainty in the human error probabilities in this study. This study identified that only a few procedures are available for mitigating accidents that may occur during shutdown. Procedures written specifically for shutdown accidents would be useful.« less

On "black swans" and "perfect storms": risk analysis and management when statistics are not enough.

PubMed

Paté-Cornell, Elisabeth

2012-11-01

Two images, "black swans" and "perfect storms," have struck the public's imagination and are used--at times indiscriminately--to describe the unthinkable or the extremely unlikely. These metaphors have been used as excuses to wait for an accident to happen before taking risk management measures, both in industry and government. These two images represent two distinct types of uncertainties (epistemic and aleatory). Existing statistics are often insufficient to support risk management because the sample may be too small and the system may have changed. Rationality as defined by the von Neumann axioms leads to a combination of both types of uncertainties into a single probability measure--Bayesian probability--and accounts only for risk aversion. Yet, the decisionmaker may also want to be ambiguity averse. This article presents an engineering risk analysis perspective on the problem, using all available information in support of proactive risk management decisions and considering both types of uncertainty. These measures involve monitoring of signals, precursors, and near-misses, as well as reinforcement of the system and a thoughtful response strategy. It also involves careful examination of organizational factors such as the incentive system, which shape human performance and affect the risk of errors. In all cases, including rare events, risk quantification does not allow "prediction" of accidents and catastrophes. Instead, it is meant to support effective risk management rather than simply reacting to the latest events and headlines. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

The influence of economic incentives linked to road safety indicators on accidents: the case of toll concessions in Spain.

PubMed

Rangel, Thais; Vassallo, José Manuel; Herraiz, Israel

2013-10-01

The goal of this paper is to evaluate whether the incentives incorporated in toll highway concession contracts in order to encourage private operators to adopt measures to reduce accidents are actually effective at improving safety. To this end, we implemented negative binomial regression models using information about highway characteristics and accident data from toll highway concessions in Spain from 2007 to 2009. Our results show that even though road safety is highly influenced by variables that are not managed by the contractor, such as the annual average daily traffic (AADT), the percentage of heavy vehicles on the highway, number of lanes, number of intersections and average speed; the implementation of these incentives has a positive influence on the reduction of accidents and injuries. Consequently, this measure seems to be an effective way of improving safety performance in road networks. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The New Zealand accident compensation scheme.

PubMed

Barter, R W

1977-05-01

Reference is made to legislation concerned with the introduction of the New Zealand Accident Compensation Scheme in 1974. The author's experience of the Scheme is based on an exchange visit in 1975. The basic principles are community responsibility and universal entitlement to compensation. Earnings-related benefits are paid to the injured person, and flat-rate payments to non-earners. The Scheme is administered by a three-man Commission with wide responsibilities for accident prevention, rehabilitation services, administration of funds, records, public relations, and an independent Appeals Authority. There have been far reaching consequences on medical practice. The Commission construe the phrase 'Personal Injury by Accident' as damage to the human system which is not designed by the person injured: the implications of such a definition are briefly discussed. The administrative costs of any similar Scheme in the United Kingdom would be enormous and it is doubtful whether the benefits would justify the cost.

Equipment failures and their contribution to industrial incidents and accidents in the manufacturing industry.

PubMed

Bourassa, Dominic; Gauthier, François; Abdul-Nour, Georges

2016-01-01

Accidental events in manufacturing industries can be caused by many factors, including work methods, lack of training, equipment design, maintenance and reliability. This study is aimed at determining the contribution of failures of commonly used industrial equipment, such as machines, tools and material handling equipment, to the chain of causality of industrial accidents and incidents. Based on a case study which aimed at the analysis of an existing pulp and paper company's accident database, this paper examines the number, type and gravity of the failures involved in these events and their causes. Results from this study show that equipment failures had a major effect on the number and severity of accidents accounted for in the database: 272 out of 773 accidental events were related to equipment failure, where 13 of them had direct human consequences. Failures that contributed directly or indirectly to these events are analyzed.

[Hang-gliding accidents in high mountains. Apropos of 200 cases].

PubMed

Foray, J; Abrassart, S; Femmy, T; Aldilli, M

1991-01-01

A review of 200 cases of "paragliding" accidents in high mountain areas has been completed. The first flights have been murderous, a thesis written in 1987 in Grenoble showing seven dead out of 97 casualties. Since then the statistics seen to be improving as a consequence of the setting of regulations and the establishment of "paragliding" schools. The more frequent accidents happen on landing: in 70% of the cases fractures of the "tibiotarsienne", the wrist and the spinal column prevail. They happen to young adults between 20 and 40 years old, with a variable experience. Preventive measures consist in a greater prudence, a good physical condition and a precise aerological knowledge. The adepts of this sport have understood that wearing a helmet and appropriate shoes could reduce the gravity of the accidents. "Paragliding" if not a dangerous sport is certainly a risky one.

Development of Northeast Asia Nuclear Power Plant Accident Simulator.

PubMed

Kim, Juyub; Kim, Juyoul; Po, Li-Chi Cliff

2017-06-15

A conclusion from the lessons learned after the March 2011 Fukushima Daiichi accident was that Korea needs a tool to estimate consequences from a major accident that could occur at a nuclear power plant located in a neighboring country. This paper describes a suite of computer-based codes to be used by Korea's nuclear emergency response staff for training and potentially operational support in Korea's national emergency preparedness and response program. The systems of codes, Northeast Asia Nuclear Accident Simulator (NANAS), consist of three modules: source-term estimation, atmospheric dispersion prediction and dose assessment. To quickly assess potential doses to the public in Korea, NANAS includes specific reactor data from the nuclear power plants in China, Japan and Taiwan. The completed simulator is demonstrated using data for a hypothetical release. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Post-Chernobyl accident radioactivity measurements in the Comunidad Autonoma de Valencia, Spain.

PubMed

Ortiz, J; Ballesteros, L; Serradell, V

1992-03-01

Increased atmospheric radioactivity after the accident in Chernobyl was first detected on air filters. Measurements were begun in Valencia on May 2, 1986, with the maximum activity being observed around May 3-4, 1986. As a consequence of this accident, annual campaigns of measurements on migrating birds (several species of aquatic birds and song-thrushes) were started. The data corresponding to the campaign immediately after the accident (1986/87) show a generalized contamination (approximately 50% of the measured specimens). Significant levels of 134Cs, 137Cs and 110Agm were found. It is important to note that 110Agm is only present in Aythya ferina. In the successive campaigns in 1988/89 and 1989/91 few samples were found to be contaminated and only 137Cs was identified. Strontium-90 was measured and identified in some specimens, mainly in their bones.

Injuries are not accidents

PubMed Central

Gutiérrez, María Isabel

2014-01-01

Injuries are the result of an acute exposure to exhort of energy or a consequence of a deficiency in a vital element that exceeds physiological thresholds resulting threatens life. They are classified as intentional or unintentional. Injuries are considered a global health issue because they cause more than 5 million deaths per year worldwide and they are an important contributor to the burden of disease, especially affecting people of low socioeconomic status in low- and middle-income countries. A common misconception exists where injuries are thought to be the same as accidents; however, accidents are largely used as chance events, without taken in consideration that all these are preventable. This review discusses injuries and accidents in the context of road traffic and emphasizes injuries as preventable events. An understanding of the essence of injuries enables the standardization of terminology in public use and facilitates the development of a culture of prevention among all of us. PMID:25386040

School sports accidents: analysis of causes, modes, and frequencies.

PubMed

Kelm, J; Ahlhelm, F; Pape, D; Pitsch, W; Engel, C

2001-01-01

About 5% of all school children are seriously injured during physical education every year. Because of its influence on children's attitude toward sports and the economic aspects, an evaluation of causes and medical consequences is necessary. In this study, 213 school sports accidents were investigated. Besides diagnosis, the localization of injuries, as well as the duration of the sick leave were documented. Average age of injured students was 13 years. Most of the injured students blamed themselves for the accident. The most common injuries were sprains, contusions, and fractures. Main reasons for the accidents were faults in basic motion training. Playing soccer and basketball were the most frequent reasons for injuries. The upper extremity was more frequently involved than the lower extremity. Sports physicians and teachers should work out a program outlining the individual needs and capabilities of the injured students to reintegrate them into physical education.

Agricultural implications of the Fukushima nuclear accident

PubMed Central

Nakanishi, Tomoko M.

2016-01-01

More than 4 years has passed since the accident at the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant. Immediately after the accident, 40 to 50 academic staff of the Graduate School of Agricultural and Life Sciences at the University of Tokyo created an independent team to monitor the behavior of the radioactive materials in the field and their effects on agricultural farm lands, forests, rivers, animals, etc. When the radioactive nuclides from the nuclear power plant fell, they were instantly adsorbed at the site where they first touched; consequently, the fallout was found as scattered spots on the surface of anything that was exposed to the air at the time of the accident. The adsorption has become stronger over time, so the radioactive nuclides are now difficult to remove. The findings of our study regarding the wide range of effects on agricultural fields are summarized in this report. PMID:27538845

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Costa, David A.; Cournoyer, Michael E.; Merhege, James F.

Criticality is the state of a nuclear chain reacting medium when the chain reaction is just self-sustaining (or critical). Criticality is dependent on nine interrelated parameters. Moreover, we design criticality safety controls in order to constrain these parameters to minimize fissions and maximize neutron leakage and absorption in other materials, which makes criticality more difficult or impossible to achieve. We present the consequences of criticality accidents are discussed, the nine interrelated parameters that combine to affect criticality are described, and criticality safety controls used to minimize the likelihood of a criticality accident are presented.

Implementation of numerical simulation techniques in analysis of the accidents in complex technological systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Klishin, G.S.; Seleznev, V.E.; Aleoshin, V.V.

1997-12-31

Gas industry enterprises such as main pipelines, compressor gas transfer stations, gas extracting complexes belong to the energy intensive industry. Accidents there can result into the catastrophes and great social, environmental and economic losses. Annually, according to the official data several dozens of large accidents take place at the pipes in the USA and Russia. That is why prevention of the accidents, analysis of the mechanisms of their development and prediction of their possible consequences are acute and important tasks nowadays. The accidents reasons are usually of a complicated character and can be presented as a complex combination of natural,more » technical and human factors. Mathematical and computer simulations are safe, rather effective and comparatively inexpensive methods of the accident analysis. It makes it possible to analyze different mechanisms of a failure occurrence and development, to assess its consequences and give recommendations to prevent it. Besides investigation of the failure cases, numerical simulation techniques play an important role in the treatment of the diagnostics results of the objects and in further construction of mathematical prognostic simulations of the object behavior in the period of time between two inspections. While solving diagnostics tasks and in the analysis of the failure cases, the techniques of theoretical mechanics, of qualitative theory of different equations, of mechanics of a continuous medium, of chemical macro-kinetics and optimizing techniques are implemented in the Conversion Design Bureau {number_sign}5 (DB{number_sign}5). Both universal and special numerical techniques and software (SW) are being developed in DB{number_sign}5 for solution of such tasks. Almost all of them are calibrated on the calculations of the simulated and full-scale experiments performed at the VNIIEF and MINATOM testing sites. It is worth noting that in the long years of work there has been established a fruitful and effective collaboration of theoreticians, mathematicians and experimentalists of the institute to solve such tasks.« less

Future directions for transportation safety research

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2005-08-01

Many opportunities now exist that can contribute significantly to preventing accidents, mitigating consequences, and improving responses to incidents in all modes. Two parallel and interrelated areas that offer particularly promising results are tech...

Short-sighted confession decisions: the role of uncertain and delayed consequences.

PubMed

Yang, Yueran; Madon, Stephanie; Guyll, Max

2015-02-01

Suspects have a propensity to focus on short-term contingencies, giving disproportionate weight to the proximal consequences that are delivered by police during an interrogation, and too little consideration to the distal (and often more severe) consequences that may be levied by the judicial system if they are convicted. In this research, the authors examined whether the perceived uncertainty and temporal distance of distal consequences contribute to this propensity. Using the repetitive question paradigm (Madon et al., 2012), participants (N = 209) were interviewed about 20 prior criminal and unethical behaviors and were required to admit or deny each one. Participants' denials and admissions were paired with both a proximal consequence and a distal consequence, respectively. Results indicated that the distal consequence had less impact on participants' admission decisions when it was uncertain and temporally remote. These results provide evidence that the perceived uncertainty and temporal distance of future punishment are key factors that lead suspects to confess to crimes in exchange for short-term gains.

Identifying the Safety Factors over Traffic Signs in State Roads using a Panel Quantile Regression Approach.

PubMed

Šarić, Željko; Xu, Xuecai; Duan, Li; Babić, Darko

2018-06-20

This study intended to investigate the interactions between accident rate and traffic signs in state roads located in Croatia, and accommodate the heterogeneity attributed to unobserved factors. The data from 130 state roads between 2012 and 2016 were collected from Traffic Accident Database System maintained by the Republic of Croatia Ministry of the Interior. To address the heterogeneity, a panel quantile regression model was proposed, in which quantile regression model offers a more complete view and a highly comprehensive analysis of the relationship between accident rate and traffic signs, while the panel data model accommodates the heterogeneity attributed to unobserved factors. Results revealed that (1) low visibility of material damage (MD) and death or injured (DI) increased the accident rate; (2) the number of mandatory signs and the number of warning signs were more likely to reduce the accident rate; (3)average speed limit and the number of invalid traffic signs per km exhibited a high accident rate. To our knowledge, it's the first attempt to analyze the interactions between accident consequences and traffic signs by employing a panel quantile regression model; by involving the visibility, the present study demonstrates that the low visibility causes a relatively higher risk of MD and DI; It is noteworthy that average speed limit corresponds with accident rate positively; The number of mandatory signs and the number of warning signs are more likely to reduce the accident rate; The number of invalid traffic signs per km are significant for accident rate, thus regular maintenance should be kept for a safer roadway environment.

Females do not have more injury road accidents on Friday the 13th

PubMed Central

Radun, Igor; Summala, Heikki

2004-01-01

Background This study reinvestigated the recent finding that females – but not males – die in traffic accidents on Friday the 13th more often than on other Fridays (Näyhä S: Traffic deaths and superstition on Friday the 13th. Am J Psychiatry 2002, 159: 2110–2111). The current study used matched setting and injury accident data base that is more numerous than fatality data. If such an effect would be caused by impaired psychic and psychomotor functioning due to more frequent anxiety among women, it should also appear in injury crashes. Methods We used the national Finnish road accident database for 1989–2002. To control seasonal variation, 21 Fridays the 13th were compared in a matched design to previous and following Fridays, excluding all holidays, on number of accidents, male/female responsibility for accidents, and the number of dead, injured and overall number of active participants (drivers, pedestrians and bicyclists) as a consequence of the accident. Results There were no significant differences in any examined aspect of road injury accidents among the three Fridays, either in females or males. Women were not overrepresented in crashes that occurred on Fridays 13th. Conclusion There is no consistent evidence for females having more road traffic crashes on Fridays the 13th, based on deaths or road accident statistics. However, this does not imply a non-existent effect of superstition related anxiety on accident risk as no exposure-to-risk data are available. People who are anxious of "Black Friday" may stay home, or at least avoid driving a car. PMID:15546493

[Occupational accidents in Barcelona (Spain), from 1992 to 1993].

PubMed

Sampaio, R F; Martin, M; Artazcoz, L; Moncada, S

1998-08-01

The statistics related to labor accidents as with any other notification system ought to be the basis for programs and policies with a view to the adoption of preventive measures. In order to establish preventive norms, however, the health system needs data from researchers focussing on the dynamics of and the pitfalls revealed by specific events. Within this context the main objective of this study is to proceed with an in-depth analysis of the labor accidents verified in Barcelona (Spain) using for this purpose a descriptive statistics model to test variables such as type of accident, economic sector, economic enterprise and type of labor contract. The data source utilized was the notification system for labor accidents with grave consequences such as death of the victim registered in Barcelona during the period 1992-1993. Labor accidents registered for male workers numbered 848. A log-linear model was applied to this data base. The results show a positive association between traumatic accidents with the construction, traffic and services sectors. A positive association was also found between traumatic accidents and the size of the company concerved the small ones being the worse type in terms of worker's injuries. Regarding the nontraumatic accidents, the study showed a positive correlation between large-sized enterprises and type of temporary worker and the civil construction sector as compared to workers with long term work contracts within industry and services. There was some evidence, also, of a positive association between small and medium sized companies and temporary work and the occurrence of work accidents.

A comparison of the hazard perception ability of accident-involved and accident-free motorcycle riders.

PubMed

Cheng, Andy S K; Ng, Terry C K; Lee, Hoe C

2011-07-01

Hazard perception is the ability to read the road and is closely related to involvement in traffic accidents. It consists of both cognitive and behavioral components. Within the cognitive component, visual attention is an important function of driving whereas driving behavior, which represents the behavioral component, can affect the hazard perception of the driver. Motorcycle riders are the most vulnerable types of road user. The primary purpose of this study was to deepen our understanding of the correlation of different subtypes of visual attention and driving violation behaviors and their effect on hazard perception between accident-free and accident-involved motorcycle riders. Sixty-three accident-free and 46 accident-involved motorcycle riders undertook four neuropsychological tests of attention (Digit Vigilance Test, Color Trails Test-1, Color Trails Test-2, and Symbol Digit Modalities Test), filled out the Chinese Motorcycle Rider Driving Violation (CMRDV) Questionnaire, and viewed a road-user-based hazard situation with an eye-tracking system to record the response latencies to potentially dangerous traffic situations. The results showed that both the divided and selective attention of accident-involved motorcycle riders were significantly inferior to those of accident-free motorcycle riders, and that accident-involved riders exhibited significantly higher driving violation behaviors and took longer to identify hazardous situations compared to their accident-free counterparts. However, the results of the regression analysis showed that aggressive driving violation CMRDV score significantly predicted hazard perception and accident involvement of motorcycle riders. Given that all participants were mature and experienced motorcycle riders, the most plausible explanation for the differences between them is their driving style (influenced by an undesirable driving attitude), rather than skill deficits per se. The present study points to the importance of conceptualizing the influence of different driving behaviors so as to enrich our understanding of the role of human factors in road accidents and consequently develop effective countermeasures to prevent traffic accidents involving motorcycles. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Exploring inattention and distraction in the SafetyNet Accident Causation Database.

PubMed

Talbot, Rachel; Fagerlind, Helen; Morris, Andrew

2013-11-01

Distraction and inattention are considered to be very important and prevalent factors in the causation of road accidents. There have been many recent research studies which have attempted to understand the circumstances under which a driver becomes distracted or inattentive and how distraction/inattention can be prevented. Both factors are thought to have become more important in recent times partly due to the evolution of in-vehicle information and communication technology. This study describes a methodology that was developed to understand when factors such as distraction and inattention may have been contributors to crashes and also describes some of the consequences of distraction and inattention in terms of subsequent driver actions. The study uses data relating to distraction and inattention from the SafetyNet Accident Causation Database. This database was formulated as part of the SafetyNet project to address the lack of representative in-depth accident causation data within the European Union. Data were collected in 6 European countries using 'on-scene' and 'nearly on-scene' crash investigation methodologies. 32% of crashes recorded in the database, involved at least one driver, rider or pedestrian, who was determined to be 'Inattentive' or 'Distracted'. 212 of the drivers were assigned 'Distraction' and 140 drivers were given the code 'Inattention'. It was found that both distraction and inattention often lead to missed observations within the driving task and consequently 'Timing' or 'Direction' become critical events in the aetiology of crashes. In addition, the crash types and outcomes may differ according to the type and nature of the distraction and inattention as determined by the in-depth investigations. The development of accident coding methodology is described in this study as is its evolution into the Driver Reliability and Error Analysis Model (DREAM) version 3.0. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessment of accident severity in the construction industry using the Bayesian theorem.

PubMed

Alizadeh, Seyed Shamseddin; Mortazavi, Seyed Bagher; Mehdi Sepehri, Mohammad

2015-01-01

Construction is a major source of employment in many countries. In construction, workers perform a great diversity of activities, each one with a specific associated risk. The aim of this paper is to identify workers who are at risk of accidents with severe consequences and classify these workers to determine appropriate control measures. We defined 48 groups of workers and used the Bayesian theorem to estimate posterior probabilities about the severity of accidents at the level of individuals in construction sector. First, the posterior probabilities of injuries based on four variables were provided. Then the probabilities of injury for 48 groups of workers were determined. With regard to marginal frequency of injury, slight injury (0.856), fatal injury (0.086) and severe injury (0.058) had the highest probability of occurrence. It was observed that workers with <1 year's work experience (0.168) had the highest probability of injury occurrence. The first group of workers, who were extensively exposed to risk of severe and fatal accidents, involved workers ≥ 50 years old, married, with 1-5 years' work experience, who had no past accident experience. The findings provide a direction for more effective safety strategies and occupational accident prevention and emergency programmes.

Measuring, Estimating, and Deciding under Uncertainty.

PubMed

Michel, Rolf

2016-03-01

The problem of uncertainty as a general consequence of incomplete information and the approach to quantify uncertainty in metrology is addressed. Then, this paper discusses some of the controversial aspects of the statistical foundation of the concepts of uncertainty in measurements. The basics of the ISO Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement as well as of characteristic limits according to ISO 11929 are described and the needs for a revision of the latter standard are explained. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessment of the prevalence of occupational accidents and their influential actors in an electricity distribution company during a five-year period.

PubMed

Sadeghain, Marzieh; Farid, Ramin Ataei; Dormohammadi, Ali; Aghaei, Habib Allah; Rahmani, Abdolrasoul; Farhadi, Rozita; Eskandari, Rasoul; Karchani, Mohsen

2013-01-01

Occupational accidents have been considered as one of the most important crippling factors contributing to disabilities and life-threatening situations in many countries. This study was conducted to survey the prevalence of occupational accidents and the factors of that lead to injuries in an Electricity Distribution Company during a five-year period. In this descriptive study, the accident report form included items asking about the season of the year when the accident occurred, the ages and the average age of those injured, the type of employment, work experience, nature of the injuries that occurred, parts of the body affected, treatments that were applied, average number of days lost per accident, the levels of education of those involved, and their marital status. Data was analyzed using SPSS. A total of 66 Electricity Distribution Company workers were determined to be suffering from injuries due to accidents. The accidents mostly occurred in the summer (33%). Most of the injured workers (16.7%) belonged to the age groups of 25 to 29 and 40 to 44; there were no accidents reported for workers who were less than 20. About 48% of the accident victims had to be hospitalized. Furthermore, 35% of the accident victims were treated in outpatient clinics, and 7.4% of the accident victims died. We demonstrated that there were significant relationships between: 1) marital status and accidental injuries (P<0.001); 2) the average age of those injured among both permanent and temporary workers (P<0.001), 3) the level of education and the consequences of the accidents (P<0.001), and 4) the average of days lost per accident in both the permanent and temporary workers (P<0.001). In this study, no significant relationships were found between the accident occurrence and age (P>0.05) or work experience and the distribution of the accidents (P>0.05). This study indicated that most of the injuries in these accidents were related to the nature of employment, marital status, and level of education. The results showed the necessity for providing appropriate safety training for the workers.

Assessment of the prevalence of occupational accidents and their influential actors in an electricity distribution company during a five-year period

PubMed Central

Sadeghain, Marzieh; Farid, Ramin Ataei; Dormohammadi, Ali; Aghaei, Habib Allah; Rahmani, Abdolrasoul; Farhadi, Rozita; Eskandari, Rasoul; Karchani, Mohsen

2013-01-01

Background: Occupational accidents have been considered as one of the most important crippling factors contributing to disabilities and life-threatening situations in many countries. This study was conducted to survey the prevalence of occupational accidents and the factors of that lead to injuries in an Electricity Distribution Company during a five-year period. Methods: In this descriptive study, the accident report form included items asking about the season of the year when the accident occurred, the ages and the average age of those injured, the type of employment, work experience, nature of the injuries that occurred, parts of the body affected, treatments that were applied, average number of days lost per accident, the levels of education of those involved, and their marital status. Data was analyzed using SPSS. Results: A total of 66 Electricity Distribution Company workers were determined to be suffering from injuries due to accidents. The accidents mostly occurred in the summer (33%). Most of the injured workers (16.7%) belonged to the age groups of 25 to 29 and 40 to 44; there were no accidents reported for workers who were less than 20. About 48% of the accident victims had to be hospitalized. Furthermore, 35% of the accident victims were treated in outpatient clinics, and 7.4% of the accident victims died. We demonstrated that there were significant relationships between: 1) marital status and accidental injuries (P<0.001); 2) the average age of those injured among both permanent and temporary workers (P<0.001), 3) the level of education and the consequences of the accidents (P<0.001), and 4) the average of days lost per accident in both the permanent and temporary workers (P<0.001). In this study, no significant relationships were found between the accident occurrence and age (P>0.05) or work experience and the distribution of the accidents (P>0.05). Conclusion: This study indicated that most of the injuries in these accidents were related to the nature of employment, marital status, and level of education. The results showed the necessity for providing appropriate safety training for the workers. PMID:26120397

Study of self test devices

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1976-07-15

The study was conducted to determine whether individuals might change their drinking driving behavior if they are informed of their intoxication level and its implications relative to accident involvement and legal consequences. Individuals at public...

[Aspects of aetiology of neuro-psychic disorders in male liquidators of Chernobyl nuclear power accident consequences].

PubMed

Skavysh, V A

2009-01-01

The author considered aetiology of neuro-psychic disorders in liquidators of Chernobyl nuclear power accident consequences, demonstrated scientific value of studying the liquidators cohort, as they were protected from internal radiation factors and reside on radiation "pure" territories. External radiation doses in those liquidators vary from 16 cGy to 18.7 +/- 10.8 cGy, according to the author. Catamnesis enabled to doubt radiation aetiology of psychic organic syndrome revealed in 1991-1994 by clinical and instrumental studies among 53.6% of 213 male examinees. According to the author, prolonged over 1-2 months external radiation of low dose could not cause health deterioration in adult males. Diagnosed psychic organic syndrome and vascular encephalopathy in some cases could have alcohol aetiology. This conclusion is not extrapolated to the whole liquidators cohort.

Uncertainty and research needs for supplementing wild populations of anadromous Pacific salmon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reisenbichler, R.R.

2005-01-01

Substantial disagreement and uncertainty attend the question of whether the benefits from supplementing wild populations of anadromous salmonids with hatchery fish outweigh the risks. Prudent decisions about supplementation are most likely when the suite of potential benefits and hazards and the various sources of uncertainty are explicitly identified. Models help by indicating the potential consequences of various levels of supplementation but perhaps are most valuable for showing the limitations of available data and helping design studies and monitoring to provide critical data. Information and understanding about the issue are deficient. I discuss various benefits, hazards, and associated uncertainties for supplementation, and implications for the design of monitoring and research. Several studies to reduce uncertainty and facilitate prudent supplementation are described and range from short-term reductionistic studies that help define the issue or help avoid deleterious consequences from supplementation to long-term studies (ca. 10 or more fish generations) that evaluate the net result of positive and negative genetic, behavioral, and ecological effects from supplementation.

Preliminary Analysis of Aircraft Loss of Control Accidents: Worst Case Precursor Combinations and Temporal Sequencing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Belcastro, Christine M.; Groff, Loren; Newman, Richard L.; Foster, John V.; Crider, Dennis H.; Klyde, David H.; Huston, A. McCall

2014-01-01

Aircraft loss of control (LOC) is a leading cause of fatal accidents across all transport airplane and operational classes, and can result from a wide spectrum of hazards, often occurring in combination. Technologies developed for LOC prevention and recovery must therefore be effective under a wide variety of conditions and uncertainties, including multiple hazards, and their validation must provide a means of assessing system effectiveness and coverage of these hazards. This requires the definition of a comprehensive set of LOC test scenarios based on accident and incident data as well as future risks. This paper defines a comprehensive set of accidents and incidents over a recent 15 year period, and presents preliminary analysis results to identify worst-case combinations of causal and contributing factors (i.e., accident precursors) and how they sequence in time. Such analyses can provide insight in developing effective solutions for LOC, and form the basis for developing test scenarios that can be used in evaluating them. Preliminary findings based on the results of this paper indicate that system failures or malfunctions, crew actions or inactions, vehicle impairment conditions, and vehicle upsets contributed the most to accidents and fatalities, followed by inclement weather or atmospheric disturbances and poor visibility. Follow-on research will include finalizing the analysis through a team consensus process, defining future risks, and developing a comprehensive set of test scenarios with correlation to the accidents, incidents, and future risks. Since enhanced engineering simulations are required for batch and piloted evaluations under realistic LOC precursor conditions, these test scenarios can also serve as a high-level requirement for defining the engineering simulation enhancements needed for generating them.

Loss Estimations due to Earthquakes and Secondary Technological Hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frolova, N.; Larionov, V.; Bonnin, J.

2009-04-01

Expected loss and damage assessment due to natural and technological disasters are of primary importance for emergency management just after the disaster, as well as for development and implementation of preventive measures plans. The paper addresses the procedures and simulation models for loss estimations due to strong earthquakes and secondary technological accidents. The mathematical models for shaking intensity distribution, damage to buildings and structures, debris volume, number of fatalities and injuries due to earthquakes and technological accidents at fire and chemical hazardous facilities are considered, which are used in geographical information systems assigned for these purposes. The criteria of technological accidents occurrence are developed on the basis of engineering analysis of past events' consequences. The paper is providing the results of scenario earthquakes consequences estimation and individual seismic risk assessment taking into account the secondary technological hazards at regional and urban levels. The individual risk is understood as the probability of death (or injuries) due to possible hazardous event within one year in a given territory. It is determined through mathematical expectation of social losses taking into account the number of inhabitants in the considered settlement and probability of natural and/or technological disaster.

Improving the driver-automation interaction: an approach using automation uncertainty.

PubMed

Beller, Johannes; Heesen, Matthias; Vollrath, Mark

2013-12-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate whether communicating automation uncertainty improves the driver-automation interaction. A false system understanding of infallibility may provoke automation misuse and can lead to severe consequences in case of automation failure. The presentation of automation uncertainty may prevent this false system understanding and, as was shown by previous studies, may have numerous benefits. Few studies, however, have clearly shown the potential of communicating uncertainty information in driving. The current study fills this gap. We conducted a driving simulator experiment, varying the presented uncertainty information between participants (no uncertainty information vs. uncertainty information) and the automation reliability (high vs.low) within participants. Participants interacted with a highly automated driving system while engaging in secondary tasks and were required to cooperate with the automation to drive safely. Quantile regressions and multilevel modeling showed that the presentation of uncertainty information increases the time to collision in the case of automation failure. Furthermore, the data indicated improved situation awareness and better knowledge of fallibility for the experimental group. Consequently, the automation with the uncertainty symbol received higher trust ratings and increased acceptance. The presentation of automation uncertaintythrough a symbol improves overall driver-automation cooperation. Most automated systems in driving could benefit from displaying reliability information. This display might improve the acceptance of fallible systems and further enhances driver-automation cooperation.

Uncertainty

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hunt, Randall J.

2012-01-01

Management decisions will often be directly informed by model predictions. However, we now know there can be no expectation of a single ‘true’ model; thus, model results are uncertain. Understandable reporting of underlying uncertainty provides necessary context to decision-makers, as model results are used for management decisions. This, in turn, forms a mechanism by which groundwater models inform a risk-management framework because uncertainty around a prediction provides the basis for estimating the probability or likelihood of some event occurring. Given that the consequences of management decisions vary, it follows that the extent of and resources devoted to an uncertainty analysis may depend on the consequences. For events with low impact, a qualitative, limited uncertainty analysis may be sufficient for informing a decision. For events with a high impact, on the other hand, the risks might be better assessed and associated decisions made using a more robust and comprehensive uncertainty analysis. The purpose of this chapter is to provide guidance on uncertainty analysis through discussion of concepts and approaches, which can vary from heuristic (i.e. the modeller’s assessment of prediction uncertainty based on trial and error and experience) to a comprehensive, sophisticated, statistics-based uncertainty analysis. Most of the material presented here is taken from Doherty et al. (2010) if not otherwise cited. Although the treatment here is necessarily brief, the reader can find citations for the source material and additional references within this chapter.

Fukushima Daiichi Radionuclide Inventories

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cardoni, Jeffrey N.; Jankovsky, Zachary Kyle

Radionuclide inventories are generated to permit detailed analyses of the Fukushima Daiichi meltdowns. This is necessary information for severe accident calculations, dose calculations, and source term and consequence analyses. Inventories are calculated using SCALE6 and compared to values predicted by international researchers supporting the OECD/NEA's Benchmark Study on the Accident at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station (BSAF). Both sets of inventory information are acceptable for best-estimate analyses of the Fukushima reactors. Consistent nuclear information for severe accident codes, including radionuclide class masses and core decay powers, are also derived from the SCALE6 analyses. Key nuclide activity ratios are calculated asmore » functions of burnup and nuclear data in order to explore the utility for nuclear forensics and support future decommissioning efforts.« less

Several aspects of descriptive epidemiology of hematological malignancies in adult population of Ukraine, Belarus and Russian Federation after Chornobyl accident.

PubMed

Guslitser, N; Zavelevich, M P; Koval, S V; Gluzman, D F

2016-12-01

Chornobyl impact on the health of adult population in Ukraine, Belarus and Russian Federation was a subject of several studies. However, the studies of the effects of Chornobyl on leukemia in adult populations in post-Soviet countries are scarce and the results are contradictory up to present. The results of the epidemiological studies of the oncohematological consequences of Chornobyl accident are briefly reviewed with particular focus on pre-Chornobyl and post-Chornobyl trends in leukemia incidence in Ukraine, Belarus and Russian Federation as well as in small territories of these countries with various levels of radionuclide contamination. This article is a part of a Special Issue entitled "The Chornobyl Nuclear Accident: Thirty Years After".

Lessons Learned in Protection of the Public for the Accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant.

PubMed

Callen, Jessica; Homma, Toshimitsu

2017-06-01

What insights can the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant provide in the reality of decision making on actions to protect the public during a severe reactor and spent fuel pool emergency? In order to answer this question, and with the goal of limiting the consequences of any future emergencies at a nuclear power plant due to severe conditions, this paper presents the main actions taken in response to the emergency in the form of a timeline. The focus of this paper is those insights concerning the progression of an accident due to severe conditions at a light water reactor nuclear power plant that must be understood in order to protect the public.

The long-term impact of a man-made disaster: An examination of a small town in the aftermath of the Three Mile Island Nuclear Reactor Accident.

PubMed

Goldsteen, R; Schorr, J K

1982-03-01

This paper explores the long-term effects of a nuclear accident on residents' perceptions of their physical and mental health, their trust of public officials, and their attitudes toward the future risks of nuclear power generation In their community. We find that in the period after the accident at Three Mile Island that there are constant or Increasing levels of distress reported by community residents. We conclude that the effects of a technological disaster may often be more enduring than those natural disaster and that greater research efforts should be made to Investigate the long-term consequences of man-made catastrophies of all types.

Fuzzy risk analysis of a modern γ-ray industrial irradiator.

PubMed

Castiglia, F; Giardina, M

2011-06-01

Fuzzy fault tree analyses were used to investigate accident scenarios that involve radiological exposure to operators working in industrial γ-ray irradiation facilities. The HEART method, a first generation human reliability analysis method, was used to evaluate the probability of adverse human error in these analyses. This technique was modified on the basis of fuzzy set theory to more directly take into account the uncertainties in the error-promoting factors on which the methodology is based. Moreover, with regard to some identified accident scenarios, fuzzy radiological exposure risk, expressed in terms of potential annual death, was evaluated. The calculated fuzzy risks for the examined plant were determined to be well below the reference risk suggested by International Commission on Radiological Protection.

Accident rates and types among self-employed private forest owners.

PubMed

Lindroos, Ola; Burström, Lage

2010-11-01

Half of all Swedish forests are owned by private individuals, and at least 215,000 people work in these privately owned forest holdings. However, only lethal accidents are systematically monitored among self-employed forest workers. Therefore, data from the registries of the Swedish Work Environment Authority, the Labor Insurance Organization and the regional University Hospital in Umeå were gathered to allow us to perform a more in-depth assessment of the rate and types of accidents that occurred among private forest owners. We found large differences between the registries in the type and number of accidents that were reported. We encountered difficulties in defining "self-employed forest worker" and also in determining whether the accidents that did occur happened during work or leisure time. Consequently, the estimates for the accident rate that we obtained varied from 32 to > or = 4300 injured persons per year in Sweden, depending on the registry that was consulted, the definition of the sample population that was used, and the accident severity definition that was employed. Nevertheless, the different registries gave a consistent picture of the types of accidents that occur while individuals are participating in self-employed forestry work. Severe accidents were relatively common, as self-employed forestry work fatalities constituted 7% of the total number of fatalities in the work authority registry. Falling trees were associated with many of these fatal accidents as well as with accidents that resulted in severe non-fatal injuries. Thus, unsafe work methods appeared more related to the occurrence of an accident than the equipment that was being used at the time of the accident (e.g., a chainsaw). Improvement of the workers' skills should therefore be considered to be an important prevention measure that should be undertaken in this field. The challenges in improving the safety in these smallest of companies, which fall somewhere between the purview of occupational and consumer safety, are exemplified and discussed. 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cellular automata-based forecasting of the impact of accidental fire and toxic dispersion in process industries.

PubMed

Sarkar, Chinmoy; Abbasi, S A

2006-09-01

The strategies to prevent accidents from occurring in a process industry, or to minimize the harm if an accident does take place, always revolve around forecasting the likely accidents and their impacts. Based on the likely frequency and severity of the accidents, resources are committed towards preventing the accidents. Nearly all techniques of ranking hazardous units, be it the hazard and operability studies, fault tree analysis, hazard indice, etc.--qualitative as well as quantitative--depend essentially on the assessment of the likely frequency and the likely harm accidents in different units may cause. This fact makes it exceedingly important that the forecasting the accidents and their likely impact is done as accurately as possible. In the present study we introduce a new approach to accident forecasting based on the discrete modeling paradigm of cellular automata. In this treatment an accident is modeled as a self-evolving phenomena, the impact of which is strongly influenced by the size, nature, and position of the environmental components which lie in the vicinity of the accident site. The outward propagation of the mass, energy and momentum from the accident epicenter is modeled as a fast diffusion process occurring in discrete space-time coordinates. The quantum of energy and material that would flow into each discrete space element (cell) due to the accidental release is evaluated and the degree of vulnerability posed to the receptors if present in the cell is measured at the end of each time element. This approach is able to effectively take into account the modifications in the flux of energy and material which occur as a result of the heterogeneous environment prevailing between the accident epicenter and the receptor. Consequently, more realistic accident scenarios are generated than possible with the prevailing techniques. The efficacy of the approach has been illustrated with case studies.

Aircraft Loss of Control Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jacobson, Steven R.

2010-01-01

Loss of control has become the leading cause of jet fatalities worldwide. Aside from their frequency of occurrence, accidents resulting from loss of aircraft control seize the public s attention by yielding large numbers of fatalities in a single event. In response to the rising threat to aviation safety, NASA's Aviation Safety Program has conducted a study of the loss of control problem. This study gathered four types of information pertaining to loss of control accidents: (1) statistical data; (2) individual accident reports that cite loss of control as a contributing factor; (3) previous meta-analyses of loss of control accidents; and (4) inputs solicited from aircraft manufacturers, air carriers, researchers, and other industry stakeholders. Using these information resources, the study team identified causal factors that were cited in the greatest number of loss of control accidents, and which were emphasized most by industry stakeholders. For each causal factor that was linked to loss of control, the team solicited ideas about what solutions are required and future research efforts that could potentially help avoid their occurrence or mitigate their consequences when they occurred in flight.

Multi-phase model development to assess RCIC system capabilities under severe accident conditions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kirkland, Karen Vierow; Ross, Kyle; Beeny, Bradley

The Reactor Core Isolation Cooling (RCIC) System is a safety-related system that provides makeup water for core cooling of some Boiling Water Reactors (BWRs) with a Mark I containment. The RCIC System consists of a steam-driven Terry turbine that powers a centrifugal, multi-stage pump for providing water to the reactor pressure vessel. The Fukushima Dai-ichi accidents demonstrated that the RCIC System can play an important role under accident conditions in removing core decay heat. The unexpectedly sustained, good performance of the RCIC System in the Fukushima reactor demonstrates, firstly, that its capabilities are not well understood, and secondly, that themore » system has high potential for extended core cooling in accident scenarios. Better understanding and analysis tools would allow for more options to cope with a severe accident situation and to reduce the consequences. The objectives of this project were to develop physics-based models of the RCIC System, incorporate them into a multi-phase code and validate the models. This Final Technical Report details the progress throughout the project duration and the accomplishments.« less

Consequences and countermeasures in a nuclear power accident: Chernobyl experience.

PubMed

Kirichenko, Vladimir A; Kirichenko, Alexander V; Werts, Day E

2012-09-01

Despite the tragic accidents in Fukushima and Chernobyl, the nuclear power industry will continue to contribute to the production of electric energy worldwide until there are efficient and sustainable alternative sources of energy. The Chernobyl nuclear accident, which occurred 26 years ago in the former Soviet Union, released an immense amount of radioactivity over vast territories of Belarus, Ukraine, and the Russian Federation, extending into northern Europe, and became the most severe accident in the history of the nuclear industry. This disaster was a result of numerous factors including inadequate nuclear power plant design, human errors, and violation of safety measures. The lessons learned from nuclear accidents will continue to strengthen the safety design of new reactor installations, but with more than 400 active nuclear power stations worldwide and 104 reactors in the Unites States, it is essential to reassess fundamental issues related to the Chernobyl experience as it continues to evolve. This article summarizes early and late events of the incident, the impact on thyroid health, and attempts to reduce agricultural radioactive contamination.

Response of hydrology to climate change in the southern Appalachian mountains using Bayesian inference

Treesearch

Wei Wu; James S. Clark; James M. Vose

2012-01-01

Predicting long-term consequences of climate change on hydrologic processes has been limited due to the needs to accommodate the uncertainties in hydrological measurements for calibration, and to account for the uncertainties in the models that would ingest those calibrations and uncertainties in climate predictions as basis for hydrological predictions. We implemented...

Nuclear risk analysis of the Ulysses mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bartram, Bart W.; Vaughan, Frank R.; Englehart, Richard W., Dr.

1991-01-01

The use of a radioisotope thermoelectric generator fueled with plutonium-238 dioxide on the Space Shuttle-launched Ulysses mission implies some level of risk due to potential accidents. This paper describes the method used to quantify risks in the Ulysses mission Final Safety Analysis Report prepared for the U.S. Department of Energy. The starting point for the analysis described herein is following input of source term probability distributions from the General Electric Company. A Monte Carlo technique is used to develop probability distributions of radiological consequences for a range of accident scenarios thoughout the mission. Factors affecting radiological consequences are identified, the probability distribution of the effect of each factor determined, and the functional relationship among all the factors established. The probability distributions of all the factor effects are then combined using a Monte Carlo technique. The results of the analysis are presented in terms of complementary cumulative distribution functions (CCDF) by mission sub-phase, phase, and the overall mission. The CCDFs show the total probability that consequences (calculated health effects) would be equal to or greater than a given value.

Evaluation of potential severe accidents during low power and shutdown operations at Surry, Unit 1: Analysis of core damage frequency from internal events during mid-loop operations, Appendices A--D. Volume 2, Part 2

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chu, T.L.; Musicki, Z.; Kohut, P.

1994-06-01

During 1989, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) initiated an extensive program to carefully examine the Potential risks during low Power and shutdown operations. The program includes two parallel projects being performed by Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) and Sandia National Laboratories (SNL). Two plants, Surry (pressurized water reactor) and Grand Gulf (boiling water reactor), were selected as the Plants to be studied. The objectives of the program are to assess the risks of severe accidents initiated during plant operational states other than full power operation and to compare the estimated core damage frequencies, important accident sequences and other qualitative and quantitativemore » results with those accidents initiated during full power operation as assessed in NUREG-1150. The objective of this report is to document the approach utilized in the Surry plant and discuss the results obtained. A parallel report for the Grand Gulf plant is prepared by SNL. This study shows that the core-damage frequency during mid-loop operation at the Surry plant is comparable to that of power operation. We recognize that there is very large uncertainty in the human error probabilities in this study. This study identified that only a few procedures are available for mitigating accidents that may occur during shutdown. Procedures written specifically for shutdown accidents would be useful. This document, Volume 2, Pt. 2 provides appendices A through D of this report.« less

An novel identification method of the environmental risk sources for surface water pollution accidents in chemical industrial parks.

PubMed

Peng, Jianfeng; Song, Yonghui; Yuan, Peng; Xiao, Shuhu; Han, Lu

2013-07-01

The chemical industry is a major source of various pollution accidents. Improving the management level of risk sources for pollution accidents has become an urgent demand for most industrialized countries. In pollution accidents, the released chemicals harm the receptors to some extent depending on their sensitivity or susceptibility. Therefore, identifying the potential risk sources from such a large number of chemical enterprises has become pressingly urgent. Based on the simulation of the whole accident process, a novel and expandable identification method for risk sources causing water pollution accidents is presented. The newly developed approach, by analyzing and stimulating the whole process of a pollution accident between sources and receptors, can be applied to identify risk sources, especially on the nationwide scale. Three major types of losses, such as social, economic and ecological losses, were normalized, analyzed and used for overall consequence modeling. A specific case study area, located in a chemical industry park (CIP) along the Yangtze River in Jiangsu Province, China, was selected to test the potential of the identification method. The results showed that there were four risk sources for pollution accidents in this CIP. Aniline leakage in the HS Chemical Plant would lead to the most serious impact on the surrounding water environment. This potential accident would severely damage the ecosystem up to 3.8 km downstream of Yangtze River, and lead to pollution over a distance stretching to 73.7 km downstream. The proposed method is easily extended to the nationwide identification of potential risk sources.

Major workplace related accidents in Singapore: A major trauma centre's experience.

PubMed

Ng, Zhi Xu; Teo, Li Tserng; Go, Karen T S; Yeo, Yen Teng; Chiu, Ming Terk

2010-12-01

Major workplace related accidents pose a significant healthcare resource challenge in Singapore. Our study looks at the epidemiology of patients who were admitted for workplace related accidents, in a single institution, with an Injury Severity Score of >9. There were 196 cases of major workplace related accidents admitted between January 2006 and December 2007. The median age of patients admitted was 37 years with a large percentage being males (95.4%) and non-residents (57.1%). The most common ethnic group was Chinese (53.1%) followed by Indians (23.5%). The most common mechanism of injury was fall from height (66.3%) followed by injuries as a result of falling objects at work (21.9%). The percentage of patients who required surgical intervention was 69.9%. Patients admitted for major workplace related accidents had a median length of stay of 5 days in the hospital, a median length of 24 days of medical leave (ML), certifying them unfit for duty and the average cost of stay for each patient was S$11,000. We have a better understanding of the epidemiology and socio-economic impact of workplace related accidents through this study. Workplace related accidents result in significant number of man-days lost from work and monetary cost to employers, medical insurance and the hospital. With an improved understanding, we propose methods to prevent and reduce such accidents in future. A direct consequence of which will be the possible reduction of hospitalisation costs and better allocation of healthcare resources in the future.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sattison, M.B.; Blackman, H.S.; Novack, S.D.

The Office for Analysis and Evaluation of Operational Data (AEOD) has sought the assistance of the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) to make some significant enhancements to the SAPHIRE-based Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) models recently developed by the INEL. The challenge of this project is to provide the features of a full-scale PRA within the framework of the simplified ASP models. Some of these features include: (1) uncertainty analysis addressing the standard PRA uncertainties and the uncertainties unique to the ASP models and methods, (2) incorporation and proper quantification of individual human actions and the interaction among human actions, (3)more » enhanced treatment of common cause failures, and (4) extension of the ASP models to more closely mimic full-scale PRAs (inclusion of more initiators, explicitly modeling support system failures, etc.). This paper provides an overview of the methods being used to make the above improvements.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sattison, M.B.; Blackman, H.S.; Novack, S.D.

The Office for Analysis and Evaluation of Operational Data (AEOD) has sought the assistance of the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) to make some significant enhancements to the SAPHIRE-based Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) models recently developed by the INEL. The challenge of this project is to provide the features of a full-scale PRA within the framework of the simplified ASP models. Some of these features include: (1) uncertainty analysis addressing the standard PRA uncertainties and the uncertainties unique to the ASP models and methodology, (2) incorporation and proper quantification of individual human actions and the interaction among human actions, (3)more » enhanced treatment of common cause failures, and (4) extension of the ASP models to more closely mimic full-scale PRAs (inclusion of more initiators, explicitly modeling support system failures, etc.). This paper provides an overview of the methods being used to make the above improvements.« less

Nuclear event zero-time calculation and uncertainty evaluation.

PubMed

Pan, Pujing; Ungar, R Kurt

2012-04-01

It is important to know the initial time, or zero-time, of a nuclear event such as a nuclear weapon's test, a nuclear power plant accident or a nuclear terrorist attack (e.g. with an improvised nuclear device, IND). Together with relevant meteorological information, the calculated zero-time is used to help locate the origin of a nuclear event. The zero-time of a nuclear event can be derived from measured activity ratios of two nuclides. The calculated zero-time of a nuclear event would not be complete without an appropriately evaluated uncertainty term. In this paper, analytical equations for zero-time and the associated uncertainty calculations are derived using a measured activity ratio of two nuclides. Application of the derived equations is illustrated in a realistic example using data from the last Chinese thermonuclear test in 1980. Crown Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Fatal occupational accidents in Lombardy].

PubMed

Pianosi, G

1995-01-01

All fatal occupational accidents compensated in Lombardy from 1984 to 1989 were analyzed (1259 cases): significant differences between geographical distribution of fatal occupational accidents and workers were observed. Males accounted for about 95% of fatalities; an excess of cases was shown in both young and elderly workers. Death was the consequence of injuries involving most frequently the head, thorax and spinal cord. An excess of fatalities was observed in agriculture and, at a lower level, in manufacturing industries; small enterprises were involved in approximately 25% of fatalities occurring in the manufacturing industries and services. Employers were the victims of fatal accidents in 50% of cases in agriculture and in 70% of cases in craft industries. Construction, agriculture and transport accounted for about 50% of all fatalities. About 50% of fatal occupational accidents were related to vehicle use: the victim was the driver in the majority of cases, sometimes the victim was run over by a vehicle or fell from a vehicle. The results agree with some previous observations (e.g.: sex and age distribution; construction, agriculture and transport as working activities at high accident risk); but some original observations have emerged, in particular about the frequency of employers as victims and the role of vehicles in the genesis of fatal occupational accidents. If further studies confirm these latter observations, important developments could follow in preventive action design and implementation.

Prediction of road accidents: A Bayesian hierarchical approach.

PubMed

Deublein, Markus; Schubert, Matthias; Adey, Bryan T; Köhler, Jochen; Faber, Michael H

2013-03-01

In this paper a novel methodology for the prediction of the occurrence of road accidents is presented. The methodology utilizes a combination of three statistical methods: (1) gamma-updating of the occurrence rates of injury accidents and injured road users, (2) hierarchical multivariate Poisson-lognormal regression analysis taking into account correlations amongst multiple dependent model response variables and effects of discrete accident count data e.g. over-dispersion, and (3) Bayesian inference algorithms, which are applied by means of data mining techniques supported by Bayesian Probabilistic Networks in order to represent non-linearity between risk indicating and model response variables, as well as different types of uncertainties which might be present in the development of the specific models. Prior Bayesian Probabilistic Networks are first established by means of multivariate regression analysis of the observed frequencies of the model response variables, e.g. the occurrence of an accident, and observed values of the risk indicating variables, e.g. degree of road curvature. Subsequently, parameter learning is done using updating algorithms, to determine the posterior predictive probability distributions of the model response variables, conditional on the values of the risk indicating variables. The methodology is illustrated through a case study using data of the Austrian rural motorway network. In the case study, on randomly selected road segments the methodology is used to produce a model to predict the expected number of accidents in which an injury has occurred and the expected number of light, severe and fatally injured road users. Additionally, the methodology is used for geo-referenced identification of road sections with increased occurrence probabilities of injury accident events on a road link between two Austrian cities. It is shown that the proposed methodology can be used to develop models to estimate the occurrence of road accidents for any road network provided that the required data are available. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prognosis of outcome in adult survivors of road accidents in France: one-year follow-Up in the ESPARR cohort.

PubMed

Nhac-Vu, Hoang-Thy; Hours, Martine; Chossegros, Laetitia; Charnay, Pierrette; Tardy, Helene; Martin, Jean-Louis; Mazaux, Jean-Michel; Laumon, Bernard

2014-01-01

The consequences of road crashes are various, and few studies have dealt with the multidimensionality of outcomes. The aim of the present study was to assess the multidimensional nature of outcomes one year after a crash and to determine predictive factors that could help in adapting medical and social care to prevent such consequences to improve road crash victims' prognosis. The study population was the 886 respondents to the one-year follow-up from the ESPARR (Etude et Suivi d'une Population d'Accidentés de la Route du Rhône) cohort, aged ≥ 16 years; the analysis was carried out only on the 616 subjects who fully completed a self-report questionnaire on health, social, emotional, and financial status one year after a crash. Multiple correspondence analysis and hierarchical clustering was implemented to produce homogeneous groups according to differences in outcome. Groups were compared using the World Health Organization Quality of Life Assessment (WHOQOL-BREF, a standard instrument of quality of life, assessing physical health, psychological health, social relationships, and environment) and the Injury Impairment Scale (IIS), a tool to predict road crash sequelae. Baseline predictive factors for group attribution were analyzed by weighted multinomial logistic regression models. Three hundred seventeen of the 616 subjects (60.1%) were men. Mean age was 36.9 years (SD = 16.5). Five victim groups were identified in terms of consequences at one year: one group (206 subjects, 33.4%) with few problems, one with essentially physical sequelae, one with problems that were essentially both physical and social, and 2 groups with a wider range of problems (one including psychological problems but fewer environmental problems; the last one reported negative physical, psychological, social, and environmental impact; notably, all had post-concussion syndrome [PCS]). There were significant differences between groups in terms of family status, injury severity, and certain types of injury (thorax, spine, lower limbs). Comparison on the WHOQOL-BREF confirmed that groups reporting more adverse outcomes had a lower quality of life. Description of the 5 groups by IIS indicators showed that IIS underestimated physical consequences one year after the crash. In addition to the known prognostic factors such as age, initial injury severity, and injury type, socioeconomic fragility and having a relative involved in the accident emerged as predictive of poor outcome at one year. One year after the crash, victims may still be experiencing multiple problems in terms of not only physical health but also of mental health, social life, and environment. Poor outcome may be predicted from both accident-related factors and socioeconomic fragility. Our results are useful in catching the attention of both clinicians and the public administration regarding victims at risk of suffering from important consequences after an accident. If those suffering head injuries are recognized, it would be very important to better consider and treat posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) or PCS. Furthermore, subjects from lower socioeconomic backgrounds, with or without lower limb injuries, have numerous difficulties after an accident, notably for returning to work. An objective would be to provide them with more specific support. Supplemental materials are available for this article. Go to the publisher's online edition of Traffic Injury Prevention to view the supplemental file.

RMP Guidance for Warehouses - Table of Contents

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This Risk Management Program (40 CFR Part 68) Guidance is organized into chapters, each covering a topic such as applicability of the rule, requirements for the five-year accident history and offsite consequence analysis, and emergency response.

49 CFR 193.2013 - Incorporation by reference.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... Thermal Radiation Model for LNG Fires (March 2004) § 193.2057(a). (2) GTI-04/0049 (April 2004) “LNG Vapor... FEM3A for LNG Accident Consequence Analyses” (April 1997) § 193.2059. F. National Fire Protection...

49 CFR 193.2013 - Incorporation by reference.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... Thermal Radiation Model for LNG Fires (March 2004) § 193.2057(a). (2) GTI-04/0049 (April 2004) “LNG Vapor... FEM3A for LNG Accident Consequence Analyses” (April 1997) § 193.2059. F. National Fire Protection...

49 CFR 193.2013 - Incorporation by reference.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... Thermal Radiation Model for LNG Fires (March 2004) § 193.2057(a). (2) GTI-04/0049 (April 2004) “LNG Vapor... FEM3A for LNG Accident Consequence Analyses” (April 1997) § 193.2059. F. National Fire Protection...

Evaluation of the Consequences of a Cistern Truck Accident While Transporting Dangerous Substances through a Tunnel.

PubMed

Malecha, Ziemowit M; Poliski, Jarosaw; Chorowski, Maciej

2017-12-01

The transportation of dangerous substances by truck carriers harbors important safety issues in both road and mine tunnels. Even though traffic conditions in road and mine tunnels are different, the potential geometric and hydrodynamic similarities can lead to similar effects from the uncontrolled leakage of the dangerous material. This work was motivated by the design study of the LAGUNA-LBNO (Large Apparatus studying Grand Unification and Neutrino Astrophysics and Long Baseline Neutrino Oscillations) project. The considered neutrino detector requires a huge amount of liquid argon, which must be transported down the tunnel. The present work focuses on the estimation of the most credible incident and the resulting consequences in the case of a truck accident in the tunnel. The approach and tools used in the present work are generic and can be adapted to other similar situations. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

A primer on criticality safety

DOE PAGES

Costa, David A.; Cournoyer, Michael E.; Merhege, James F.; ...

2017-05-01

Criticality is the state of a nuclear chain reacting medium when the chain reaction is just self-sustaining (or critical). Criticality is dependent on nine interrelated parameters. Moreover, we design criticality safety controls in order to constrain these parameters to minimize fissions and maximize neutron leakage and absorption in other materials, which makes criticality more difficult or impossible to achieve. We present the consequences of criticality accidents are discussed, the nine interrelated parameters that combine to affect criticality are described, and criticality safety controls used to minimize the likelihood of a criticality accident are presented.

Emergency care centers--an efficient method for mitigation of consequences after a dirty bomb attack.

PubMed

Miska, Horst

2012-08-01

For emergency preparedness and response with respect to nuclear power plant accidents, the concept of Emergency Care Centers has been developed in Germany. This setup aims at monitoring contamination, to decontaminate if needed, assess the dose, and perform an initial medical evaluation of people who might have been affected by the accident. The concept has been tested in many exercises. In response to a terrorist attack involving a dirty bomb, this concept may prove useful for attending contaminated people who are not severely injured.

[Radiological estimation of the protective measures used in agricultural complex of Belarus Republic in 2000-2005 (20 years after the accident on the Chernobyl NPP)].

PubMed

Podoliak, A G; Bogdevich, I M; Ageets, V Iu; Timofeev, S F

2007-01-01

The radiological estimation of the basic agrochemistry measures spent for the agriculture of the Republic of Belarus in 2000-2005 is given. Laws of behavior radionuclides 137Cs and 90Sr in agrosystems are considered depending on used protective a measures (countermeasures) and the primary goals on liquidation of consequences in sphere of agrarian and industrial complex which are necessary for solving during the remote period after accident ChNNP (in 2006-2010) are studied.

Analytical measurements of fission products during a severe nuclear accident

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doizi, D.; Reymond la Ruinaz, S.; Haykal, I.; Manceron, L.; Perrin, A.; Boudon, V.; Vander Auwera, J.; tchana, F. Kwabia; Faye, M.

2018-01-01

The Fukushima accident emphasized the fact that ways to monitor in real time the evolution of a nuclear reactor during a severe accident remain to be developed. No fission products were monitored during twelve days; only dose rates were measured, which is not sufficient to carry out an online diagnosis of the event. The first measurements were announced with little reliability for low volatile fission products. In order to improve the safety of nuclear plants and minimize the industrial, ecological and health consequences of a severe accident, it is necessary to develop new reliable measurement systems, operating at the earliest and closest to the emission source of fission products. Through the French program ANR « Projet d'Investissement d'Avenir », the aim of the DECA-PF project (diagnosis of core degradation from fission products measurements) is to monitor in real time the release of the major fission products (krypton, xenon, gaseous forms of iodine and ruthenium) outside the nuclear reactor containment. These products are released at different times during a nuclear accident and at different states of the nuclear core degradation. Thus, monitoring these fission products gives information on the situation inside the containment and helps to apply the Severe Accident Management procedures. Analytical techniques have been proposed and evaluated. The results are discussed here.

The Human Factors of an Early Space Accident: Flight 3-65 of the X-15

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barshi, Immanuel; Statler, Irving C.; Orr, Jeb S.

2015-01-01

The X-15 was a critical research vehicle in the early days of space flight. On November 15, 1967, the X-15-3 suffered an in-flight breakup. This 191st flight of the X-15 and the 65th flight of this third configuration was the only fatal accident of the X-15 program. This paper presents an analysis, from a human factors perspective, of the events that led up to the accident. The analysis is based on the information contained in the report of the Air Force-NASA Accident Investigation Board (AIB) dated January, 1968. The AIBs analysis addressed, primarily, the events that occurred subsequent to the pilots taking direct control of the reaction control system. The analysis described here suggests that all of the events that caused the accident occurred well before the moment when the pilot switched to direct control. Consequently, the analyses and conclusions regarding the causal factors of, and the contributing factors to, the loss of Flight 3-65 presented here differ from those of the AIB based on the same evidence. Although the accident occurred in 1967, the results of the presented analysis are still relevant today. We present our analysis and discuss its implications for the safety of space operations.

The Human Factors of an Early Space Accident: Flight 3-65 of the X-15

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barshi, Immanuel; Statler, Irving C.; Orr, Jeb S.

2016-01-01

The X-15 was a critical research vehicle in the early days of space flight. On November 15, 1967, the X-15-3 suffered an in-flight breakup. This 191st flight of the X-15 and the 65th flight of this third configuration was the only fatal accident of the X-15 program. This paper presents an analysis, from a human factors perspective, of the events that led up to the accident. The analysis is based on the information contained in the report of the Air Force-NASA Accident Investigation Board (AIB) dated January, 1968. The AIBs analysis addressed, primarily, the events that occurred subsequent to the pilot's taking direct control of the reaction control system. The analysis described here suggests that, rather than events following the pilot's switch to direct control, it was the events preceding the switch that led to the accident. Consequently, the analyses and conclusions regarding the causal factors of, and the contributing factors to, the loss of Flight 3-65 presented here differ from those of the AIB based on the same evidence. Although the accident occurred in 1967, the results of the presented analysis are still relevant today. We present our analysis and discuss its implications for the safety of space operations.

ISA implementation and uncertainty: a literature review and expert elicitation study.

PubMed

van der Pas, J W G M; Marchau, V A W J; Walker, W E; van Wee, G P; Vlassenroot, S H

2012-09-01

Each day, an average of over 116 people die from traffic accidents in the European Union. One out of three fatalities is estimated to be the result of speeding. The current state of technology makes it possible to make speeding more difficult, or even impossible, by placing intelligent speed limiters (so called ISA devices) in vehicles. Although the ISA technology has been available for some years now, and reducing the number of road traffic fatalities and injuries has been high on the European political agenda, implementation still seems to be far away. Experts indicate that there are still too many uncertainties surrounding ISA implementation, and dealing with these uncertainties is essential for implementing ISA. In this paper, a systematic and representative inventory of the uncertainties is made based upon the literature. Furthermore, experts in the field of ISA were surveyed and asked which uncertainties are barriers for ISA implementation, and how uncertain these uncertainties are. We found that the long-term effects and the effects of large-scale implementation of ISA are still uncertain and are the most important barriers for the implementation of the most effective types of ISA. One way to deal with these uncertainties would be to start implementation on a small scale and gradually expand the penetration, in order to learn how ISA influences the transport system over time. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Environmental risk management for radiological accidents: integrating risk assessment and decision analysis for remediation at different spatial scales.

PubMed

Yatsalo, Boris; Sullivan, Terrence; Didenko, Vladimir; Linkov, Igor

2011-07-01

The consequences of the Tohuku earthquake and subsequent tsunami in March 2011 caused a loss of power at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, in Japan, and led to the release of radioactive materials into the environment. Although the full extent of the contamination is not currently known, the highly complex nature of the environmental contamination (radionuclides in water, soil, and agricultural produce) typical of nuclear accidents requires a detailed geospatial analysis of information with the ability to extrapolate across different scales with applications to risk assessment models and decision making support. This article briefly summarizes the approach used to inform risk-based land management and remediation decision making after the Chernobyl, Soviet Ukraine, accident in 1986. Copyright © 2011 SETAC.

Radioecological indexes of fallout measurements from the Fukushima nuclear accident

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manolopoulou, Metaxia; Stoulos, Stylianos; Ioannidou, Alexandra; Vagena, Eleni

2014-05-01

Fallout from the Fukushima nuclear accident has been monitored for about 1 month in Thessaloniki, Northern Greece. Three different radionuclides, one short-lived, one relatively long-lived and one long- lived fission product were identified in air, grass and milk samples. The 131I, 137Cs and 134Cs activity concentrations in air reached 497, 145 and 126 μBqm-3, respectively on 4 April, 2011. These radionuclides are of particular concern regarding their transfer from the environment to population through the ingestion pathways for the assessment of the Fukushima accident consequences. Radioecological indexes (eco-indexes) of fallout measurements in the air-grass-cow-milk-man pathway for 131I were determined, as they are related to radiological impact of the Fukushima derived radionuclides on the public and environment.

[The prevention in Italian workers' compensation authority protection: back to the future].

PubMed

Miccio, A; Ossicini, A

2010-01-01

Workers'protection is now more than ever an integrated protection system-as a result also of recent innovative provisions of law-ranging from prevention on the workplace to health and economic benefits, medical treatment, rehabilitation and reintegration in the social and working life of victims of physical damage consequent to a work related accident or professional disease. With a view to contributing to the reduction of accidents, INAIL has implemented a number of important tools to continually monitor employment and accident trends, it provides small and medium size enterprises with training and advice in the field of prevention and funds companies that decide to invest in the improvement of safety. Now more than ever INAIL after the law May 2010, n. 78 is the Italian prevention agency.

Radiation monitoring systems as a tool for assessment of accidental releases at the Chernobyl and Fukushima NPPs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shershakov, Vjacheslav; Bulgakov, Vladimir

2013-04-01

The experience gained during mitigation of the consequences of the accidents at the Chernobyl and Fukushima NPPs has shown that what makes different the decision-making in case of nuclear accidents is that the greatest benefit from decision-making can be achieved in the early phase of an accident. Support to such process can be provided only by a real-time decision-making support system. In case of a nuclear accident the analysis of the situation and decision-making is not feasible without an operational radiation monitoring system, international data exchange and automated data processing, and the use of computerized decision-making support systems. With this in mind, in the framework of different international programs on the Chernobyl-related issues numerous projects were undertaken to study and develop a set of methods, algorithms and programs providing effective support to emergency response decision-making, starting from accident occurrence to decision-making regarding countermeasures to mitigate effects of radioactive contamination of the environment. The presentation focuses results of the analysis of radiation monitoring data and, on this basis, refining or, for many short-lived radionuclides, reconstructing the source term, modeling dispersion of radioactivity in the environment and assessing its impacts. The obtained results allowed adding and refining the existing estimates and in some cases reconstructing doses for the public on the territories contaminated as a result of the Chernobyl accident. The activities were implemented in two stages. In the first stage, several scenarios for dispersion of Chernobyl-related radioactivity were developed. For each scenario cesium-137 dispersion was estimated and these estimates were compared with measurement data. In the second stage, the scenario which showed the best agreement of calculations and measurements was used for modeling the dispersion of iodine-131and other short-lived radionuclides. The described approach was used for assessing the consequences at the Fukushima NPP. These results are also provided in the presentation. References 1. Kelly G.N., Ehrhardt J., Shershakov V.M.. Decision Support for Off-Site Emergency Preparedness in Europe. Radiation Protection Dosimetry, Vol. 64 Nos. 1-2, 1996, pp. 129-142. 2. Ehrhardt J., Shershakov V.M. Real-time on-line decision support systems (RODOS) for off-site emergency management following a nuclear accident. EUR 16533, 1996 3. Kelly G.N., Shershakov V.M. (Editors). Environmental contamination, radiation doses and health consequences after the ?hernobyl accident. Radiation Protection Dosimetry. Special Commemorative Issue.Vol. 64, 1996 4. Shershakov V.M. Computer information technology for support of radiation monitoring problems. OECD Proceedings of an International Workshop «Nuclear Emergency Data Management», Zurich, Switzerland, 1998, pp. 377-388 5. Pitkevich V.A., Duba V.V., Ivanov V.K., Tsyb A.F., Shershakov V.M., Golubenkov A.V., Borodin R.V., V.A., Kosykh V.S. Reconstruction of External Dose to the Inhabitants Living in the Contaminated Territory of Russia by the Results of the Accident at the Chernobyl NPP. Health Phys., Vol. 30, No. 1, pp. 54-68, 1995. 6. Shershakov V., Fesenko S., Kryshev I., Semioshkina T. Decision-Aiding Tools for Remediation Strategies. In: Radioactivity in the Environment, Volume 14, Remediation of Contaminated Environments, 2009, pp 41- 120, Elsevier Ltd.

Contamination and radiation exposure in central Europe after the Chernobyl accident

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bayer, A.; Mueck, K.; Loosli, H.H.

1996-06-01

Ten years ago, on 26 April 1986, as a consequence of an accident in Unit 4 of the Chernobyl-NPP, a large quantity of radioactive material was released into the atmosphere for some days. This material was spread over wide areas of Europe. Due to variable weather conditions the activity concentrations in air varied considerably in different regions. Also as a consequence of large variations in precipitation intensity-particularly in the regions of Southeastern Germany, Austria and Southern Switzerland-up to 100 kBq m{sup -2} {sup 137}Cs were deposited on the soil. Due to fallout, washout, and/or rainout, a range of foodstuffs weremore » contaminated, and foodstuffs directly exposed to the fallout [vegetables and green fodder (grass)] showed the highest contamination levels. Consequently, milk also showed a significantly increased activity concentration, in particular of {sup 131}I. In the following years contamination in all kinds of foodstuffs decreased, but elevated contamination levels in special pathways like venison and mushrooms are still observed to date. This contamination resulted in additional exposure, mainly due to external radiation from ground and from consumption of contaminated food. The radiation exposure in the most contaminated areas was calculated on the basis of model assumptions and was found to be about 1 mSv during the first year after the accident. Using this model, the ingestion pathway was overestimated by at least a factor of two. This additional exposure decreased and is now less than 1 % on average; in the most contaminated areas, this is a few percent of the average natural radiation exposure.« less

Alloy Selection for Accident Tolerant Fuel Cladding in Commercial Light Water Reactors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rebak, Raul B.

2015-12-01

As a consequence of the March 2011 events at the Fukushima site, the U.S. congress asked the Department of Energy (DOE) to concentrate efforts on the development of nuclear fuels with enhanced accident tolerance. The new fuels had to maintain or improve the performance of current UO2-zirconium alloy rods during normal operation conditions and tolerate the loss of active cooling in the core for a considerably longer time period than the current system. DOE is funding cost-shared research to investigate the behavior of advanced steels both under normal operation conditions in high-temperature water [ e.g., 561 K (288 °C)] and under accident conditions for reaction with superheated steam. Current results show that, under accident conditions, the advanced ferritic steels (1) have orders of magnitude lower reactivity with steam, (2) would generate less hydrogen and heat than the current zirconium alloys, (3) are resistant to stress corrosion cracking under normal operation conditions, and (4) have low general corrosion in water at 561 K (288 °C).

Internality and externality correlates of potential drivers among high school pupils in Holon (Israel).

PubMed

Brook, U; Weitzman, A

1994-01-01

Car accidents are the leading causes of death and handicap among adolescents and young adults. Thirty-six pupils from the last class in high school (in the age group 17-18 years) have attended lectures with explanations concerning the consequences of car accidents by physicians of rehabilitation centers. They also were taken on a one-day visit to such a center. They have seen and talked with persons who were severely handicapped because of car accidents, and have followed the physical therapists and occupational healing therapists throughout their work day. The pupils completed the Rotter and Montag Internality-Externality Scale questionnaire before and after the meeting and staging with the handicaps, and the results showed an increase of 10.28% in their Internal focus of control. The conclusion is that confrontation of young future drivers with handicaps as a result of car accidents in rehabilitation centers should be a routine and regular habit during the last classes of high school.

Vehicle-pedestrian collisions - Aspects regarding pedestrian kinematics, dynamics and biomechanics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petrescu, L.; Petrescu, Al

2017-10-01

Vehicle-pedestrian collisions result in a substantial number of pedestrian fatalities and injuries worldwide. Concern continues to limit and reduce the tragic consequences suffered by pedestrians involved in road accidents, caused the vehicle-pedestrian accident reconstruction become an important area and distinctly outlined in the reconstruction of road incidents involving vehicle. This paper analyzes the dynamics of vehicle-pedestrian impact influence over pedestrian biomechanics, which is directly connected with the severity of injury after contact with the vehicle profile and with the place where the pedestrian is projected. The main goal of this paper is to highlight some features of reconstruction of road accidents involving pedestrian, looking at the kinematics and dynamics of pedestrian impact for a better understanding of the phenomena that occur. The study on the dynamics and biomechanics of the pedestrian hit by the vehicle is useful in order to understand how the injuries, including the lethal ones, are generated in the collision, what is essential in road accidents reconstruction.

Thermal-hydraulic analysis of N Reactor graphite and shield cooling system performance

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Low, J.O.; Schmitt, B.E.

1988-02-01

A series of bounding (worst-case) calculations were performed using a detailed hydrodynamic RELAP5 model of the N Reactor graphite and shield cooling system (GSCS). These calculations were specifically aimed to answer issues raised by the Westinghouse Independent Safety Review (WISR) committee. These questions address the operability of the GSCS during a worst-case degraded-core accident that requires the GDCS to mitigate the consequences of the accident. An accident scenario previously developed was designed as the hydrogen-mitigation design-basis accident (HMDBA). Previous HMDBA heat transfer analysis,, using the TRUMP-BD code, was used to define the thermal boundary conditions that the GSDS may bemore » exposed to. These TRUMP/HMDBA analysis results were used to define the bounding operating conditions of the GSCS during the course of an HMDBA transient. Nominal and degraded GSCS scenarios were investigated using RELAP5 within or at the bounds of the HMDBA transient. 10 refs., 42 figs., 10 tabs.« less

Investigating the multi-causal and complex nature of the accident causal influence of construction project features.

PubMed

Manu, Patrick A; Ankrah, Nii A; Proverbs, David G; Suresh, Subashini

2012-09-01

Construction project features (CPFs) are organisational, physical and operational attributes that characterise construction projects. Although previous studies have examined the accident causal influence of CPFs, the multi-causal attribute of this causal phenomenon still remain elusive and thus requires further investigation. Aiming to shed light on this facet of the accident causal phenomenon of CPFs, this study examines relevant literature and crystallises the attained insight of the multi-causal attribute by a graphical model which is subsequently operationalised by a derived mathematical risk expression that offers a systematic approach for evaluating the potential of CPFs to cause harm and consequently their health and safety (H&S) risk implications. The graphical model and the risk expression put forth by the study thus advance current understanding of the accident causal phenomenon of CPFs and they present an opportunity for project participants to manage the H&S risk associated with CPFs from the early stages of project procurement. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Andrews, Nathan; Faucett, Christopher; Haskin, Troy Christopher

Following the conclusion of the first phase of the crosswalk analysis, one of the key unanswered questions was whether or not the deviations found would persist during a partially recovered accident scenario, similar to the one that occurred in TMI - 2. In particular this analysis aims to compare the impact of core degradation morphology on quenching models inherent within the two codes and the coolability of debris during partially recovered accidents. A primary motivation for this study is the development of insights into how uncertainties in core damage progression models impact the ability to assess the potential for recoverymore » of a degraded core. These quench and core recovery models are of the most interest when there is a significant amount of core damage, but intact and degraded fuel still remain in the cor e region or the lower plenum. Accordingly this analysis presents a spectrum of partially recovered accident scenarios by varying both water injection timing and rate to highlight the impact of core degradation phenomena on recovered accident scenarios. This analysis uses the newly released MELCOR 2.2 rev. 966 5 and MAAP5, Version 5.04. These code versions, which incorporate a significant number of modifications that have been driven by analyses and forensic evidence obtained from the Fukushima - Daiichi reactor site.« less

THYROID CANCER STUDY AMONG UKRAINIAN CHILDREN EXPOSED TO RADIATION AFTER THE CHORNOBYL ACCIDENT: IMPROVED ESTIMATES OF THE THYROID DOSES TO THE COHORT MEMBERS

PubMed Central

Likhtarov, Ilya; Kovgan, Lina; Masiuk, Sergii; Talerko, Mykola; Chepurny, Mykola; Ivanova, Olga; Gerasymenko, Valentina; Boyko, Zulfira; Voillequé, Paul; Drozdovitch, Vladimir; Bouville, André

2013-01-01

In collaboration with the Ukrainian Research Center for Radiation Medicine, the U.S. National Cancer Institute initiated a cohort study of children and adolescents exposed to Chornobyl fallout in Ukraine to better understand the long-term health effects of exposure to radioactive iodines. All 13,204 cohort members were subjected to at least one direct thyroid measurement between 30 April and 30 June 1986 and resided at the time of the accident in the northern part of Kyiv, Zhytomyr, or Chernihiv Oblasts, which were the most contaminated territories of Ukraine as a result of radioactive fallout from the Chornobyl accident. Thyroid doses for the cohort members, which had been estimated following the first round of interviews, were re-evaluated following the second round of interviews. The revised thyroid doses range from 0.35 mGy to 42 Gy, with 95 percent of the doses between 1 mGy and 4.2 Gy, an arithmetic mean of 0.65 Gy, and a geometric mean of 0.19 Gy. These means are 70% of the previous estimates, mainly because of the use of country-specific thyroid masses. Many of the individual thyroid dose estimates show substantial differences because of the use of an improved questionnaire for the second round of interviews. Limitations of the current set of thyroid dose estimates are discussed. For the epidemiologic study, the most notable improvement is a revised assessment of the uncertainties, as shared and unshared uncertainties in the parameter values were considered in the calculation of the 1,000 stochastic estimates of thyroid dose for each cohort member. This procedure makes it possible to perform a more realistic risk analysis. PMID:25208014

[The SILENE reactor: a tool adapted for applied study of moderate and large doses].

PubMed

Verrey, B; Leo, Y; Fouillaud, P

2002-07-01

Designed in 1974 to study the phenomenology and consequences of a critical accident, the SILENE experimental reactor, an intense source of mixed neutron and gamma radiation, is also suited to radiobiological studies.

Long-term effects of ionizing radiation after the Chernobyl accident: Possible contribution of historic dose.

PubMed

Omar-Nazir, Laila; Shi, Xiaopei; Moller, Anders; Mousseau, Timothy; Byun, Soohyun; Hancock, Samuel; Seymour, Colin; Mothersill, Carmel

2018-08-01

The impact of the Chernobyl NPP accident on the environment is documented to be greater than expected, with higher mutation rates than expected at the current, chronic low dose rate. In this paper we suggest that the historic acute exposure and resulting non-targeted effects (NTE) such as delayed mutations and genomic instability could account at least in part for currently measured mutation rates and provide an initial test of this concept. Data from Møller and Mousseau on the phenotypic mutation rates of Chernobyl birds 9-11 generations post the Chernobyl accident were used and the reconstructed dose response for mutations was compared with delayed reproductive death dose responses (as a measure of genomic instability) in cell cultures exposed to a similar range of doses. The dose to birds present during the Chernobyl NPP accident was reconstructed through the external pathway due to Cs-137 with an estimate of the uncertainty associated with such reconstruction. The percentage of Chernobyl birds several generations after the accident without mutations followed the general shape of the clonogenic survival percentage of the progeny of irradiated cells, and it plateaued at low doses. This is the expected result if NTE of radiation are involved. We suggest therefore, that NTE induced by the historic dose may play a role in generating mutations in progeny many generations following the initial disaster. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Cancer rates after the Three Mile Island nuclear accident and proximity of residence to the plant.

PubMed Central

Hatch, M C; Wallenstein, S; Beyea, J; Nieves, J W; Susser, M

1991-01-01

BACKGROUND: In the light of a possible link between stress and cancer promotion or progression, and of previously reported distress in residents near the Three Mile Island (TMI) nuclear power plant, we attempted to evaluate the impact of the March 1979 accident on community cancer rates. METHODS: Proximity of residence to the plant, which related to distress in previous studies, was taken as a possible indicator of accident stress; the postaccident pattern in cancer rates was examined in 69 "study tracts" within a 10-mile radius of TMI, in relation to residential proximity. RESULTS: A modest association was found between postaccident cancer rates and proximity (OR = 1.4; 95% CI = 1.3, 1.6). After adjusting for a gradient in cancer risk prior to the accident, the odds ratio contrasting those closest to the plant with those living farther out was 1.2 (95% CI = 1.0, 1.4). A postaccident increase in cancer rates near the Three Mile Island plant was notable in 1982, persisted for another year, and then declined. Radiation emissions, as modeled mathematically, did not account for the observed increase. CONCLUSION: Interpretation in terms of accident stress is limited by the lack of an individual measure of stress and by uncertainty about whether stress has a biological effect on cancer in humans. An alternative mechanism for the cancer increase near the plant is through changes in care-seeking and diagnostic practice arising from postaccident concern. PMID:2029040

Cancer rates after the Three Mile Island nuclear accident and proximity of residence to the plant.

PubMed

Hatch, M C; Wallenstein, S; Beyea, J; Nieves, J W; Susser, M

1991-06-01

In the light of a possible link between stress and cancer promotion or progression, and of previously reported distress in residents near the Three Mile Island (TMI) nuclear power plant, we attempted to evaluate the impact of the March 1979 accident on community cancer rates. Proximity of residence to the plant, which related to distress in previous studies, was taken as a possible indicator of accident stress; the postaccident pattern in cancer rates was examined in 69 "study tracts" within a 10-mile radius of TMI, in relation to residential proximity. A modest association was found between postaccident cancer rates and proximity (OR = 1.4; 95% CI = 1.3, 1.6). After adjusting for a gradient in cancer risk prior to the accident, the odds ratio contrasting those closest to the plant with those living farther out was 1.2 (95% CI = 1.0, 1.4). A postaccident increase in cancer rates near the Three Mile Island plant was notable in 1982, persisted for another year, and then declined. Radiation emissions, as modeled mathematically, did not account for the observed increase. Interpretation in terms of accident stress is limited by the lack of an individual measure of stress and by uncertainty about whether stress has a biological effect on cancer in humans. An alternative mechanism for the cancer increase near the plant is through changes in care-seeking and diagnostic practice arising from postaccident concern.

Characterisation of Liquefaction Effects for Beyond-Design Basis Safety Assessment of Nuclear Power Plants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bán, Zoltán; Győri, Erzsébet; János Katona, Tamás; Tóth, László

2015-04-01

Preparedness of nuclear power plants to beyond design base external effects became high importance after 11th of March 2011 Great Tohoku Earthquakes. In case of some nuclear power plants constructed at the soft soil sites, liquefaction should be considered as a beyond design basis hazard. The consequences of liquefaction have to be analysed with the aim of definition of post-event plant condition, identification of plant vulnerabilities and planning the necessary measures for accident management. In the paper, the methodology of the analysis of liquefaction effects for nuclear power plants is outlined. The case of Nuclear Power Plant at Paks, Hungary is used as an example for demonstration of practical importance of the presented results and considerations. Contrary to the design, conservatism of the methodology for the evaluation of beyond design basis liquefaction effects for an operating plant has to be limited to a reasonable level. Consequently, applicability of all existing methods has to be considered for the best estimation. The adequacy and conclusiveness of the results is mainly limited by the epistemic uncertainty of the methods used for liquefaction hazard definition and definition of engineering parameters characterizing the consequences of liquefaction. The methods have to comply with controversial requirements. They have to be consistent and widely accepted and used in the practice. They have to be based on the comprehensive database. They have to provide basis for the evaluation of dominating engineering parameters that control the post-liquefaction response of the plant structures. Experience of Kashiwazaki-Kariwa plant hit by Niigata-ken Chuetsu-oki earthquake of 16 July 2007 and analysis of site conditions and plant layout at Paks plant have shown that the differential settlement is found to be the dominating effect in case considered. They have to be based on the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment and allow the integration into logic-tree procedure. Earlier studies have shown that the potentially liquefiable layer at Paks Nuclear Power Plant is situated in relatively large depth. Therefore the applicability and adequacy of the methods at high overburden pressure is important. In case of existing facilities, the geotechnical data gained before construction aren't sufficient for the comprehensive liquefaction analysis. Performance of new geotechnical survey is limited. Consequently, the availability of the data has to be accounted while selection the analysis methods. Considerations have to be made for dealing with aleatory uncertainty related to the knowledge of the soil conditions. It is shown in the paper, a careful comparison and analysis of the results obtained by different methodologies provides the basis of the selection of practicable methods for the safety analysis of nuclear power plant for beyond design basis liquefaction hazard.

Probabilistic assessment of roadway departure risk in a curve

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rey, G.; Clair, D.; Fogli, M.; Bernardin, F.

2011-10-01

Roadway departure while cornering constitutes a major part of car accidents and casualties in France. Even though drastic policy about overspeeding contributes to reduce accidents, there obviously exist other factors. This article presents the construction of a probabilistic strategy for the roadway departure risk assessment. A specific vehicle dynamic model is developed in which some parameters are modelled by random variables. These parameters are deduced from a sensitivity analysis to ensure an efficient representation of the inherent uncertainties of the system. Then, structural reliability methods are employed to assess the roadway departure risk in function of the initial conditions measured at the entrance of the curve. This study is conducted within the French national road safety project SARI that aims to implement a warning systems alerting the driver in case of dangerous situation.

Occupational accidents in artisanal mining in Katanga, D.R.C.

PubMed

Elenge, Myriam; Leveque, Alain; De Brouwer, Christophe

2013-04-01

This study focuses on accidents in artisanal mining, to support policies improving miners' employability. Based on a questionnaire administered in November 2009 to a sample of 180 miners from the artisanal mining of LUPOTO, in the Province of Katanga, we explored significant trends between the accidents and their consequences and behavioral or sociological variables. During the 12 months preceding the study, 392 accidents occurred, affecting 72.2% of miners. Tools handling represents 51.5%, of the accidents' causes, followed by handling heavy loads (32.9%). Factors such as age, seniority or apprenticeship did not generate significant differences. Contusions were the most common injuries (50.2%), followed by wounds (44.4%). These injuries were located in upper limbs (50.5%) and in lower limbs (29.3%). 80.5% of miners were cared for by their colleagues and 50% of them could not work for more than 3 days. Physical sequelae were reported by 19% of the injured miners. Many surveys related to accidents in the area of artisanal mining report such high frequency. The unsuitability of tools to jobs to be done is usually raised as one of the major causes of accidents. The lack of differentiation of the tasks carried out in relation to age is another factor explaining the lack of protective effect of seniority as it minimizes the contribution of experience in the worker's safety. The apprenticeship reported is inadequate; it is rather a learning by doing than anything else. That is why it lacks protective effect. Low income combined with precariousness of artisanal mining are likely to explain the low level of work stoppages. Tools improvement associated with adequate training seem to be the basis of accident prevention. Availability of suitable medical care should improve artisanal miners' recovery after accidents.

Lessons from Fukushima for Improving the Safety of Nuclear Reactors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lyman, Edwin

2012-02-01

The March 2011 accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant has revealed serious vulnerabilities in the design, operation and regulation of nuclear power plants. While some aspects of the accident were plant- and site-specific, others have implications that are broadly applicable to the current generation of nuclear plants in operation around the world. Although many of the details of the accident progression and public health consequences are still unclear, there are a number of lessons that can already be drawn. The accident demonstrated the need at nuclear plants for robust, highly reliable backup power sources capable of functioning for many days in the event of a complete loss of primary off-site and on-site electrical power. It highlighted the importance of detailed planning for severe accident management that realistically evaluates the capabilities of personnel to carry out mitigation operations under extremely hazardous conditions. It showed how emergency plans rooted in the assumption that only one reactor at a multi-unit site would be likely to experience a crisis fail miserably in the event of an accident affecting multiple reactor units simultaneously. It revealed that alternate water injection following a severe accident could be needed for weeks or months, generating large volumes of contaminated water that must be contained. And it reinforced the grim lesson of Chernobyl: that a nuclear reactor accident could lead to widespread radioactive contamination with profound implications for public health, the economy and the environment. While many nations have re-examined their policies regarding nuclear power safety in the months following the accident, it remains to be seen to what extent the world will take the lessons of Fukushima seriously and make meaningful changes in time to avert another, and potentially even worse, nuclear catastrophe.

Ten years after Chernobyl

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Becker, K.

1996-12-31

As was amply demonstrated during the EU/IAEA/WHO Summing-up-Conference in Vienna, Austria, April 8-12, 1996, the radiological consequences of the Chernobyl accident were, fortunately, not as serious as frequently presented in the media: 28 people died from acute radiation syndrome in 1986, 14 more of possibly radiation-related causes since. Of the <1000 thyroid cancers in children, 90 to 95% are curable. There have so far been no other demonstrable increases in the former Soviet Union, as well as in Western Europe, of leukemias, solid cancers, or genetic defects, nor are any to be expected in the future. Even among the {open_quotes}liquidators{close_quotes}more » with doses {approximately}100 mSv, of the {approximately}150 additional expected leukemias during the 10 yr after the accident, none have been observed. The economical, social, and political consequences, however, both in the former Soviet Union and in Western Europe, have been very substantial. Whole countries developed an hysterical `radiation sickness.` As A. Merkel, the German Minister of Environment and Reactor Safety, who chaired the conference, pointed out, `the radiation sensitivity of societies far exceeds that of individuals.` It is obvious that important groups in Ukraine, Belaurus, and Russia try to blame a large fraction of all economic, social, and health problems during the last decade, which are substantial ({approx} 6 yr less life expectancy, twice the homicides and traffic deaths, increased alcoholism, and so forth), on radiation of the Chernobyl accident in an effort to attract more support. Western scientists refute such claims but admit large non-radiation-related problems caused by the accident.« less

A review of the Fukushima nuclear reactor accident: radiation effects on the thyroid and strategies for prevention.

PubMed

Nagataki, Shigenobu; Takamura, Noboru

2014-10-01

This is a summary of the nuclear accident at the Tokyo Electric Power Company Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Stations (FDNPS) on 11 March 2011 to be used as a review of the radiation effects to the thyroid and strategies of prevention. The amount of radioiodine released to the environment following the Fukushima accident was 120 Peta Becquerel, which is approximately one-tenth of that in the Chernobyl accident. Residents near the FDNPS were evacuated within a few days and foodstuffs were controlled within 1 or 2 weeks. Therefore, thyroid radiation doses were less than 100 mSv (intervention levels for stable iodine administration) in the majority of children, including less than 1 year olds, living in the evacuation areas. Because the incidence of childhood thyroid cancer increased in those residing near the site following the Chernobyl accident, thyroid screening of all children (0-18 years old) in the Fukushima Prefecture was started. To date, screening of more than 280 000 children has resulted in the diagnosis of thyroid cancer in 90 children (approximate incidence, 313 per million). Thus, although the dose of radiation was much lower, the incidence of thyroid cancer appears to be much higher than that following the Chernobyl accident. A comparison of the thyroidal consequences following the Fukushima and Chernobyl nuclear reactor accidents is discussed. We also summarize the recent increased incidence in thyroid cancer in the Fukushima area following the accident in relation to increased thyroid ultrasound screening and the use of advanced ultrasound techniques. http://links.lww.com/COE/A8.

Radiological protection issues arising during and after the Fukushima nuclear reactor accident.

PubMed

González, Abel J; Akashi, Makoto; Boice, John D; Chino, Masamichi; Homma, Toshimitsu; Ishigure, Nobuhito; Kai, Michiaki; Kusumi, Shizuyo; Lee, Jai-Ki; Menzel, Hans-Georg; Niwa, Ohtsura; Sakai, Kazuo; Weiss, Wolfgang; Yamashita, Shunichi; Yonekura, Yoshiharu

2013-09-01

Following the Fukushima accident, the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) convened a task group to compile lessons learned from the nuclear reactor accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant in Japan, with respect to the ICRP system of radiological protection. In this memorandum the members of the task group express their personal views on issues arising during and after the accident, without explicit endorsement of or approval by the ICRP. While the affected people were largely protected against radiation exposure and no one incurred a lethal dose of radiation (or a dose sufficiently large to cause radiation sickness), many radiological protection questions were raised. The following issues were identified: inferring radiation risks (and the misunderstanding of nominal risk coefficients); attributing radiation effects from low dose exposures; quantifying radiation exposure; assessing the importance of internal exposures; managing emergency crises; protecting rescuers and volunteers; responding with medical aid; justifying necessary but disruptive protective actions; transiting from an emergency to an existing situation; rehabilitating evacuated areas; restricting individual doses of members of the public; caring for infants and children; categorising public exposures due to an accident; considering pregnant women and their foetuses and embryos; monitoring public protection; dealing with 'contamination' of territories, rubble and residues and consumer products; recognising the importance of psychological consequences; and fostering the sharing of information. Relevant ICRP Recommendations were scrutinised, lessons were collected and suggestions were compiled. It was concluded that the radiological protection community has an ethical duty to learn from the lessons of Fukushima and resolve any identified challenges. Before another large accident occurs, it should be ensured that inter alia: radiation risk coefficients of potential health effects are properly interpreted; the limitations of epidemiological studies for attributing radiation effects following low exposures are understood; any confusion on protection quantities and units is resolved; the potential hazard from the intake of radionuclides into the body is elucidated; rescuers and volunteers are protected with an ad hoc system; clear recommendations on crisis management and medical care and on recovery and rehabilitation are available; recommendations on public protection levels (including infant, children and pregnant women and their expected offspring) and associated issues are consistent and understandable; updated recommendations on public monitoring policy are available; acceptable (or tolerable) 'contamination' levels are clearly stated and defined; strategies for mitigating the serious psychological consequences arising from radiological accidents are sought; and, last but not least, failures in fostering information sharing on radiological protection policy after an accident need to be addressed with recommendations to minimise such lapses in communication.

Screening Analysis for the Environmental Risk Evaluation System Fiscal Year 2011 Report Environmental Effects of Offshore Wind Energy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Copping, Andrea E.; Hanna, Luke A.

2011-11-01

Potential environmental effects of offshore wind (OSW) energy development are not well understood, and yet regulatory agencies are required to make decisions in spite of substantial uncertainty about environmental impacts and their long-term consequences. An understanding of risks associated with interactions between OSW installations and avian and aquatic receptors, including animals, habitats, and ecosystems, can help define key uncertainties and focus regulatory actions and scientific studies on interactions of most concern. During FY 2011, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) scientists adapted and applied the Environmental Risk Evaluation System (ERES), first developed to examine the effects of marine and hydrokinetic energymore » devices on aquatic environments, to offshore wind development. PNNL scientists conducted a risk screening analysis on two initial OSW cases: a wind project in Lake Erie and a wind project off the Atlantic coast of the United States near Atlantic City, New Jersey. The screening analysis revealed that top-tier stressors in the two OSW cases were the dynamic effects of the device (e.g., strike), accidents/disasters, and effects of the static physical presence of the device, such as alterations in bottom habitats. Receptor interactions with these stressors at the highest tiers of risk were dominated by threatened and endangered animals. Risk to the physical environment from changes in flow regime also ranked high. Peer review of this process and results will be conducted during FY 2012. The ERES screening analysis provides an assessment of the vulnerability of environmental receptors to stressors associated with OSW installations; a probability analysis is needed to determine specific risk levels to receptors. As more data become available that document effects of offshore wind farms on specific receptors in U.S. coastal and Great Lakes waters, probability analyses will be performed.« less

Data Analysis Approaches for the Risk-Informed Safety Margins Characterization Toolkit

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mandelli, Diego; Alfonsi, Andrea; Maljovec, Daniel P.

2016-09-01

In the past decades, several numerical simulation codes have been employed to simulate accident dynamics (e.g., RELAP5-3D, RELAP-7, MELCOR, MAAP). In order to evaluate the impact of uncertainties into accident dynamics, several stochastic methodologies have been coupled with these codes. These stochastic methods range from classical Monte-Carlo and Latin Hypercube sampling to stochastic polynomial methods. Similar approaches have been introduced into the risk and safety community where stochastic methods (such as RAVEN, ADAPT, MCDET, ADS) have been coupled with safety analysis codes in order to evaluate the safety impact of timing and sequencing of events. These approaches are usually calledmore » Dynamic PRA or simulation-based PRA methods. These uncertainties and safety methods usually generate a large number of simulation runs (database storage may be on the order of gigabytes or higher). The scope of this paper is to present a broad overview of methods and algorithms that can be used to analyze and extract information from large data sets containing time dependent data. In this context, “extracting information” means constructing input-output correlations, finding commonalities, and identifying outliers. Some of the algorithms presented here have been developed or are under development within the RAVEN statistical framework.« less

[The peculiar features of conducting comprehensive expertises of the injuries inflicted inside the passenger car compartment].

PubMed

Fetisov, V A; Gusarov, A A; Smirenin, S A

2016-01-01

The present article deals with the problem of forensic medical diagnostics of the injuries inflicted inside the passenger car compartment during motor vehicle accidents. The authors place special emphasis on the fact of a significant increase in the number of road traffic accidents (RTA) with such consequences throughout the world. The modern automobile industry pays much attention to the enhancement of the car safety features by significantly improving the design of passenger compartments. It accounts for a change in the traditional character of the injuries to both the driver and the passengers resulting from motor vehicle accidents. This, in turn, creates difficulties for the forensic medical experts as regards personality identification of the subjects who happened to be inside the car at the moment of the collision especially in the case of unascertainable circumstances of the accident and/or the involvement of several victims. The authors describe peculiarities of the injuries inflicted inside the passenger car compartment during road traffic accidents including such that result from bringing the driver and the passengers closer to the construction elements of the car (stage I), their direct contact with these elements (stage II), and subsequent displacement (stage III).

Emergency Responses and Health Consequences after the Fukushima Accident; Evacuation and Relocation.

PubMed

Hasegawa, A; Ohira, T; Maeda, M; Yasumura, S; Tanigawa, K

2016-04-01

The Fukushima accident was a compounding disaster following the strong earthquake and huge tsunami. The direct health effects of radiation were relatively well controlled considering the severity of the accident, not only among emergency workers but also residents. Other serious health issues include deaths during evacuation, collapse of the radiation emergency medical system, increased mortality among displaced elderly people and public healthcare issues in Fukushima residents. The Fukushima mental health and lifestyle survey disclosed that the Fukushima accident caused severe psychological distress in the residents from evacuation zones. In addition to psychiatric and mental health problems, there are lifestyle-related problems such as an increase proportion of those overweight, an increased prevalence of hypertension, diabetes mellitus and dyslipidaemia and changes in health-related behaviours among evacuees; all of which may lead to an increased cardiovascular disease risk in the future. The effects of a major nuclear accident on societies are diverse and enduring. The countermeasures should include disaster management, long-term general public health services, mental and psychological care, behavioural and societal support, in addition to efforts to mitigate the health effects attributable to radiation. Copyright © 2016 The Royal College of Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A robust observer based on H∞ filtering with parameter uncertainties combined with Neural Networks for estimation of vehicle roll angle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boada, Beatriz L.; Boada, Maria Jesus L.; Vargas-Melendez, Leandro; Diaz, Vicente

2018-01-01

Nowadays, one of the main objectives in road transport is to decrease the number of accident victims. Rollover accidents caused nearly 33% of all deaths from passenger vehicle crashes. Roll Stability Control (RSC) systems prevent vehicles from untripped rollover accidents. The lateral load transfer is the main parameter which is taken into account in the RSC systems. This parameter is related to the roll angle, which can be directly measured from a dual-antenna GPS. Nevertheless, this is a costly technique. For this reason, roll angle has to be estimated. In this paper, a novel observer based on H∞ filtering in combination with a neural network (NN) for the vehicle roll angle estimation is proposed. The design of this observer is based on four main criteria: to use a simplified vehicle model, to use signals of sensors which are installed onboard in current vehicles, to consider the inaccuracy in the system model and to attenuate the effect of the external disturbances. Experimental results show the effectiveness of the proposed observer.

Mechanical properties of tank car steels retired from the fleet

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-08-31

As a consequence of several recent tank car accidents, the structural integrity of railroad tank cars has come under greater scrutiny, especially the older portion of the fleet fabricated prior to steel normalization requirements. The purpose of this...

Causal analysis of passenger train accidents on freight rail corridors.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-11-01

A number of economic, technical and political factors have limited the development of new, dedicated, very-high-speed rail systems in North America. Consequently, most, near-term development of improved or expanded passenger rail service in the U.S. ...

Mechanical properties of tank car steels retired from the fleet

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-03-03

As a consequence of recent accidents involving the release of hazardous materials (hazmat), the structural integrity and crashworthiness of railroad tank cars have come under scrutiny. Particular attention has been given to the older portion of the f...

40 CFR 68.67 - Process hazard analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

...) CHEMICAL ACCIDENT PREVENTION PROVISIONS Program 3 Prevention Program § 68.67 Process hazard analysis. (a... potential for catastrophic consequences. (3) Engineering and administrative controls applicable to the... engineering and administrative controls; (5) Stationary source siting; (6) Human factors; and (7) A...

40 CFR 68.67 - Process hazard analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

...) CHEMICAL ACCIDENT PREVENTION PROVISIONS Program 3 Prevention Program § 68.67 Process hazard analysis. (a... potential for catastrophic consequences. (3) Engineering and administrative controls applicable to the... engineering and administrative controls; (5) Stationary source siting; (6) Human factors; and (7) A...

40 CFR 68.67 - Process hazard analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

...) CHEMICAL ACCIDENT PREVENTION PROVISIONS Program 3 Prevention Program § 68.67 Process hazard analysis. (a... potential for catastrophic consequences. (3) Engineering and administrative controls applicable to the... engineering and administrative controls; (5) Stationary source siting; (6) Human factors; and (7) A...

10 CFR 30.50 - Reporting requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... prevents immediate protective actions necessary to avoid exposures to radiation or radioactive materials... license condition to prevent releases exceeding regulatory limits, to prevent exposures to radiation and radioactive materials exceeding regulatory limits, or to mitigate the consequences of an accident; (ii) The...

10 CFR 70.50 - Reporting requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... event that prevents immediate protective actions necessary to avoid exposures to radiation or... licensee condition to prevent releases exceeding regulatory limits, to prevent exposures to radiation and radioactive materials exceeding regulatory limits, or to mitigate the consequences of an accident; (ii) The...

10 CFR 70.50 - Reporting requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... event that prevents immediate protective actions necessary to avoid exposures to radiation or... licensee condition to prevent releases exceeding regulatory limits, to prevent exposures to radiation and radioactive materials exceeding regulatory limits, or to mitigate the consequences of an accident; (ii) The...

10 CFR 30.50 - Reporting requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... prevents immediate protective actions necessary to avoid exposures to radiation or radioactive materials... license condition to prevent releases exceeding regulatory limits, to prevent exposures to radiation and radioactive materials exceeding regulatory limits, or to mitigate the consequences of an accident; (ii) The...

10 CFR 70.50 - Reporting requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... event that prevents immediate protective actions necessary to avoid exposures to radiation or... licensee condition to prevent releases exceeding regulatory limits, to prevent exposures to radiation and radioactive materials exceeding regulatory limits, or to mitigate the consequences of an accident; (ii) The...

10 CFR 30.50 - Reporting requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... prevents immediate protective actions necessary to avoid exposures to radiation or radioactive materials... license condition to prevent releases exceeding regulatory limits, to prevent exposures to radiation and radioactive materials exceeding regulatory limits, or to mitigate the consequences of an accident; (ii) The...

Farm Safety

PubMed Central

Wilson, G. S.

1966-01-01

Accident and safety are related terms; the higher the accident rate in any industry, the greater is the need for safety measures designed to prevent accidents. This article discusses the accident and safety problems in agriculture, which includes horticulture and forestry. There is still a tendency among townspeople to think of the countryside as peaceful and tranquil, a place where nothing happens very quickly and far removed from violent death or crippling injury. This pleasant rustic picture has undergone a striking change in the last 30 years owing to considerable agricultural mechanization and the development of chemical pesticides, which have brought new dangers to those who live and work on the land. Although men have readily adapted themselves to new machines and methods, they have not proved as able to recognize new dangers and learn how to guard against them. In consequence, accidents have increased to such an extent that the whole industry has realized the need for positive preventive measures. In this country, it is generally accepted that an employer of labour has a responsibility to provide safe working conditions for those he employs. Farm safety legislation goes a little further and usually requires an employer to provide necessary safeguards, with the added requirement on a worker to make use of them. It is a feature of accident prevention work that it never reaches a stage when it can be regarded as complete. Even when a reduction in accidents has been achieved, the effort must be sustained or the trend will be quickly reversed. Images PMID:5904095

Accident investigation practices in Europe--main responses from a recent study of accidents in industry and transport.

PubMed

Roed-Larsen, Sverre; Valvisto, T; Harms-Ringdahl, L; Kirchsteiger, C

2004-07-26

Europe has during recent years been shocked by disasters from natural events and technical breakdowns. The consequences have been comprehensive, measured by lost lives, injuries, and material and environmental damage. ESReDA wanted in 2000--by setting up a special expert group on accident investigation--to clarify the state of art of accident investigation practices and to map the use of thoroughly accident investigation in order to learn lessons from past disasters and prevent new ones. The scope was to cover three sectors in the society: transport, production processes and storage of hazardous materials, and energy production. The main method used was a questionnaire, which was sent in 2001 to about 150 organisations. About 50 replies were analysed. The replies showed great variations but also similarities, among others in definition of accident and incident, the objectives of the investigation team, criteria used to start an investigation, the status of the investigation organisation, the flow of information, the composition of the investigation team, and the use of internal or international procedures or rules. Several methods (in total 14 different methods were mentioned) were used for carrying out accident /incident investigations. Most of the respondents were willing to co-operate in one or another way with ESReDA. Although there are important biases in the material, the results from questionnaire are important inputs to the future work of ESReDA Expert group in this field. 3 safety approaches have been identified.

Comparisons of Wilks’ and Monte Carlo Methods in Response to the 10CFR50.46(c) Proposed Rulemaking

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Hongbin; Szilard, Ronaldo; Zou, Ling

The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) is proposing a new rulemaking on emergency core system/loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) performance analysis. In the proposed rulemaking, designated as 10CFR50.46(c), the US NRC put forward an equivalent cladding oxidation criterion as a function of cladding pre-transient hydrogen content. The proposed rulemaking imposes more restrictive and burnup-dependent cladding embrittlement criteria; consequently nearly all the fuel rods in a reactor core need to be analyzed under LOCA conditions to demonstrate compliance to the safety limits. New analysis methods are required to provide a thorough characterization of the reactor core in order to identify the locations of themore » limiting rods as well as to quantify the safety margins under LOCA conditions. With the new analysis method presented in this work, the limiting transient case and the limiting rods can be easily identified to quantify the safety margins in response to the proposed new rulemaking. In this work, the best-estimate plus uncertainty (BEPU) analysis capability for large break LOCA with the new cladding embrittlement criteria using the RELAP5-3D code is established and demonstrated with a reduced set of uncertainty parameters. Both the direct Monte Carlo method and the Wilks’ nonparametric statistical method can be used to perform uncertainty quantification. Wilks’ method has become the de-facto industry standard to perform uncertainty quantification in BEPU LOCA analyses. Despite its widespread adoption by the industry, the use of small sample sizes to infer statement of compliance to the existing 10CFR50.46 rule, has been a major cause of unrealized operational margin in today’s BEPU methods. Moreover the debate on the proper interpretation of the Wilks’ theorem in the context of safety analyses is not fully resolved yet, even more than two decades after its introduction in the frame of safety analyses in the nuclear industry. This represents both a regulatory and application risk in rolling out new methods. With the 10CFR50.46(c) proposed rulemaking, the deficiencies of the Wilks’ approach are further exacerbated. The direct Monte Carlo approach offers a robust alternative to perform uncertainty quantification within the context of BEPU analyses. In this work, the Monte Carlo method is compared with the Wilks’ method in response to the NRC 10CFR50.46(c) proposed rulemaking.« less

Detectability and Interpretational Uncertainties: Considerations in Gauging the Impacts of Land Disturbance on Streamflow

EPA Science Inventory

Hydrologic impacts of land disturbance and management can be confounded by rainfall variability. As a consequence, attempts to gauge and quantify these effects through streamflow monitoring are typically subject to uncertainties. This paper addresses the quantification and deline...

Automated vehicle for railway track fault detection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhushan, M.; Sujay, S.; Tushar, B.; Chitra, P.

2017-11-01

For the safety reasons, railroad tracks need to be inspected on a regular basis for detecting physical defects or design non compliances. Such track defects and non compliances, if not detected in a certain interval of time, may eventually lead to severe consequences such as train derailments. Inspection must happen twice weekly by a human inspector to maintain safety standards as there are hundreds and thousands of miles of railroad track. But in such type of manual inspection, there are many drawbacks that may result in the poor inspection of the track, due to which accidents may cause in future. So to avoid such errors and severe accidents, this automated system is designed.Such a concept would surely introduce automation in the field of inspection process of railway track and can help to avoid mishaps and severe accidents due to faults in the track.

An evaluation of the treatment of risk and uncertainties in the IPCC reports on climate change.

PubMed

Aven, Terje; Renn, Ortwin

2015-04-01

Few global threats rival global climate change in scale and potential consequence. The principal international authority assessing climate risk is the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Through repeated assessments the IPCC has devoted considerable effort and interdisciplinary competence to articulating a common characterization of climate risk and uncertainties. We have reviewed the assessment and its foundation for the Fifth Assessment Reports published in 2013 and 2014, in particular the guidance note for lead authors of the fifth IPCC assessment report on consistent treatment of uncertainties. Our analysis shows that the work carried out by the ICPP is short of providing a theoretically and conceptually convincing foundation on the treatment of risk and uncertainties. The main reasons for our assessment are: (i) the concept of risk is given a too narrow definition (a function of consequences and probability/likelihood); and (ii) the reports lack precision in delineating their concepts and methods. The goal of this article is to contribute to improving the handling of uncertainty and risk in future IPCC studies, thereby obtaining a more theoretically substantiated characterization as well as enhanced scientific quality for risk analysis in this area. Several suggestions for how to improve the risk and uncertainty treatment are provided. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Nuclear Reactor Accident Fallout Artifacts: Unusual Black Spots on Digital Radiographs.

PubMed

Kashimura, Yasuhiro; Chida, Koichi

2015-12-01

The Fukushima nuclear power plant accident resulted in the discharge of radioactive particulate material into the atmosphere. Consequently, several hospitals in Japan have observed black spots on x-ray computed radiography (CR) images caused by particulate radioactive fallout. These black spots have no effect on human health. To reduce the influence of black spots on CR images, we need to erase latent images on imaging plates (IPs) immediately before clinical use and read the IPs soon after the x-ray examination. Alternatively, the contaminated felt of a cassette can be cleaned or exchanged, if possible.

'Fatalism', accident causation and prevention: issues for health promotion from an exploratory study in a Yoruba town, Nigeria.

PubMed

Dixey, R A

1999-04-01

As countries experience the 'epidemiological transition' with a relative decline in infectious diseases, accident rates tend to increase, particularly road traffic accidents. The health promotion interventions intended to prevent or minimize the consequences of accidents have been developed in predominantly Western, industrialized countries. Although some of these solutions have been applied with success to less developed countries, there are also good reasons why such solutions are ineffective when tried in a different context. Health promotion as developed in the West has a particular ideological bias, being framed within a secular, individualist and rationalist culture. Different cosmologies exist outside this culture, often described as 'fatalist' by Western commentators and as obstructing change. Changing these cosmologies or worldviews may not fit with the ethic of paying due respect to the cultural traditions of the 'target group'. Health promotion is therefore faced with a dilemma. In addition to different worldviews, the different levels of development also mean that solutions formulated in richer countries do not suit poorer countries. This paper uses a small exploratory study in a Yoruba town in Nigeria to examine these points. Interviews with key informants were held in March 1994 in Igbo-Ora and data were extracted from hospital records. Levels of accidents from available records are noted and people's ideas about accident prevention are discussed. Recommendations as to the way forward are then proposed.

The Causal Relationship between DNA Damage Induction in Bovine Lymphocytes and the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Accident

PubMed Central

Nakamura, Asako J.; Suzuki, Masatoshi; Redon, Christophe E.; Kuwahara, Yoshikazu; Yamashiro, Hideaki; Abe, Yasuyuki; Takahashi, Shintaro; Fukuda, Tomokazu; Isogai, Emiko; Bonner, William M.; Fukumoto, Manabu

2017-01-01

The Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FNPP) accident, the largest nuclear incident since the 1986 Chernobyl disaster, occurred when the plant was hit by a tsunami triggered by the Great East Japan Earthquake on March 11, 2011. The subsequent uncontrolled release of radioactive substances resulted in massive evacuations in a 20-km zone. To better understand the biological consequences of the FNPP accident, we have been measuring DNA damage levels in cattle in the evacuation zone. DNA damage was evaluated by assessing the levels of DNA double-strand breaks in peripheral blood lymphocytes by immunocyto-fluorescence-based quantification of γ-H2AX foci. A greater than two-fold increase in the fraction of damaged lymphocytes was observed in all animal cohorts within the evacuation zone, and the levels of DNA damage decreased slightly over the 700-day sample collection period. While the extent of damage appeared to be independent of the distance from the accident site and the estimated radiation dose from radiocesium, we observed age-dependent accumulation of DNA damage. Thus, this study, which was the first to evaluate the biological impact of the FNPP accident utilizing the γ-H2AX assays, indicated the causal relation between high levels of DNA damage in animals living in the evacuation zone and the FNPP accident. PMID:28240558

The Causal Relationship between DNA Damage Induction in Bovine Lymphocytes and the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Accident.

PubMed

Nakamura, Asako J; Suzuki, Masatoshi; Redon, Christophe E; Kuwahara, Yoshikazu; Yamashiro, Hideaki; Abe, Yasuyuki; Takahashi, Shintaro; Fukuda, Tomokazu; Isogai, Emiko; Bonner, William M; Fukumoto, Manabu

2017-05-01

The Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FNPP) accident, the largest nuclear incident since the 1986 Chernobyl disaster, occurred when the plant was hit by a tsunami triggered by the Great East Japan Earthquake on March 11, 2011. The subsequent uncontrolled release of radioactive substances resulted in massive evacuations in a 20-km zone. To better understand the biological consequences of the FNPP accident, we have been measuring DNA damage levels in cattle in the evacuation zone. DNA damage was evaluated by assessing the levels of DNA double-strand breaks in peripheral blood lymphocytes by immunocytofluorescence-based quantification of γ-H2AX foci. A greater than two-fold increase in the fraction of damaged lymphocytes was observed in all animal cohorts within the evacuation zone, and the levels of DNA damage decreased slightly over the 700-day sample collection period. While the extent of damage appeared to be independent of the distance from the accident site and the estimated radiation dose from radiocesium, we observed age-dependent accumulation of DNA damage. Thus, this study, which was the first to evaluate the biological impact of the FNPP accident utilizing the γ-H2AX assays, indicated the causal relation between high levels of DNA damage in animals living in the evacuation zone and the FNPP accident.

An aftermath analysis of the 2014 coal mine accident in Soma, Turkey: Use of risk performance indicators based on historical experience.

PubMed

Spada, Matteo; Burgherr, Peter

2016-02-01

On the 13th of May 2014 a fire related incident in the Soma coal mine in Turkey caused 301 fatalities and more than 80 injuries. This has been the largest coal mine accident in Turkey, and in the OECD country group, so far. This study investigated if such a disastrous event should be expected, in a statistical sense, based on historical observations. For this purpose, PSI's ENSAD database is used to extract accident data for the period 1970-2014. Four different cases are analyzed, i.e., OECD, OECD w/o Turkey, Turkey and USA. Analysis of temporal trends for annual numbers of accidents and fatalities indicated a non-significant decreasing tendency for OECD and OECD w/o Turkey and a significant one for USA, whereas for Turkey both measures showed an increase over time. The expectation analysis revealed clearly that an event with the consequences of the Soma accident is rather unlikely for OECD, OECD w/o Turkey and USA. In contrast, such a severe accident has a substantially higher expectation for Turkey, i.e. it cannot be considered an extremely rare event, based on historical experience. This indicates a need for improved safety measures and stricter regulations in the Turkish coal mining sector in order to get closer to the rest of OECD. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Behavior Modification with an Aphasic Man

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ince, Laurence P.

1973-01-01

Techniques based upon operant conditioning were employed with a male patient who had sustained a cerebrovascular accident with consequent right hemiplegia and expressive asphasia. A combination of positive verbal reinforcement and feedback of progress were utilized to improve language fluency and speed of typing. (Author)

10 CFR 40.60 - Reporting requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... to avoid exposures to radiation or radioactive materials that could exceed regulatory limits or... releases exceeding regulatory limits, to prevent exposures to radiation and radioactive materials exceeding regulatory limits, or to mitigate the consequences of an accident; (ii) The equipment is required to be...

10 CFR 40.60 - Reporting requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... to avoid exposures to radiation or radioactive materials that could exceed regulatory limits or... releases exceeding regulatory limits, to prevent exposures to radiation and radioactive materials exceeding regulatory limits, or to mitigate the consequences of an accident; (ii) The equipment is required to be...

10 CFR 40.60 - Reporting requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... to avoid exposures to radiation or radioactive materials that could exceed regulatory limits or... releases exceeding regulatory limits, to prevent exposures to radiation and radioactive materials exceeding regulatory limits, or to mitigate the consequences of an accident; (ii) The equipment is required to be...

A Model for Risk Analysis of Oil Tankers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montewka, Jakub; Krata, Przemysław; Goerland, Floris; Kujala, Pentti

2010-01-01

The paper presents a model for risk analysis regarding marine traffic, with the emphasis on two types of the most common marine accidents which are: collision and grounding. The focus is on oil tankers as these pose the highest environmental risk. A case study in selected areas of Gulf of Finland in ice free conditions is presented. The model utilizes a well-founded formula for risk calculation, which combines the probability of an unwanted event with its consequences. Thus the model is regarded a block type model, consisting of blocks for the probability of collision and grounding estimation respectively as well as blocks for consequences of an accident modelling. Probability of vessel colliding is assessed by means of a Minimum Distance To Collision (MDTC) based model. The model defines in a novel way the collision zone, using mathematical ship motion model and recognizes traffic flow as a non homogeneous process. The presented calculations address waterways crossing between Helsinki and Tallinn, where dense cross traffic during certain hours is observed. For assessment of a grounding probability, a new approach is proposed, which utilizes a newly developed model, where spatial interactions between objects in different locations are recognized. A ship at a seaway and navigational obstructions may be perceived as interacting objects and their repulsion may be modelled by a sort of deterministic formulation. Risk due to tankers running aground addresses an approach fairway to an oil terminal in Sköldvik, near Helsinki. The consequences of an accident are expressed in monetary terms, and concern costs of an oil spill, based on statistics of compensations claimed from the International Oil Pollution Compensation Funds (IOPC Funds) by parties involved.

Analysis of radiation safety for Small Modular Reactor (SMR) on PWR-100 MWe type

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Udiyani, P. M.; Husnayani, I.; Deswandri; Sunaryo, G. R.

2018-02-01

Indonesia as an archipelago country, including big, medium and small islands is suitable to construction of Small Medium/Modular reactors. Preliminary technology assessment on various SMR has been started, indeed the SMR is grouped into Light Water Reactor, Gas Cooled Reactor, and Solid Cooled Reactor and from its site it is group into Land Based reactor and Water Based Reactor. Fukushima accident made people doubt about the safety of Nuclear Power Plant (NPP), which impact on the public perception of the safety of nuclear power plants. The paper will describe the assessment of safety and radiation consequences on site for normal operation and Design Basis Accident postulation of SMR based on PWR-100 MWe in Bangka Island. Consequences of radiation for normal operation simulated for 3 units SMR. The source term was generated from an inventory by using ORIGEN-2 software and the consequence of routine calculated by PC-Cream and accident by PC Cosyma. The adopted methodology used was based on site-specific meteorological and spatial data. According to calculation by PC-CREAM 08 computer code, the highest individual dose in site area for adults is 5.34E-02 mSv/y in ESE direction within 1 km distance from stack. The result of calculation is that doses on public for normal operation below 1mSv/y. The calculation result from PC Cosyma, the highest individual dose is 1.92.E+00 mSv in ESE direction within 1km distance from stack. The total collective dose (all pathway) is 3.39E-01 manSv, with dominant supporting from cloud pathway. Results show that there are no evacuation countermeasure will be taken based on the regulation of emergency.

Thyroid Consequences of the Fukushima Nuclear Reactor Accident

PubMed Central

Nagataki, Shigenobu

2012-01-01

Background A special report, ‘The Fukushima Accident’, was delivered at the 35th Annual Meeting of the European Thyroid Association in Krakow on September 11, 2011, and this study is the follow-up of the special report. Objectives To present a preliminary review of potential thyroid consequences of the 2011 Fukushima nuclear reactor accident. Methods Numerous new data have been presented in Japanese, and most of them are available on the website from each research institute and/or from each municipality. The review was made using these data from the website. Results When individual radiation doses were expressed as values in more than 99% of residents, radiation doses by behavior survey in evacuation and deliberate evacuation areas were less than 10 mSv in the first 4 months, and internal radiation doses measured by whole body counters were less than 1 mSv/year. Individual thyroid radiation doses were less than 50 mSv (intervention levels) even in evacuation areas. As for health consequences, no one died and no one suffered from acute effects. The thyroid ultrasound examination is in progress and following examination of almost 40,000 children, 35% of them have nodules and/or cysts but no cancers. Conclusions Countermeasures against radiation must consider current individual measured values, although every effort must be taken to reconstruct radiation doses as precisely as possible. At present, the difference of thyroid radiation dose between Chernobyl and Fukushima appears to be due to the strict control of milk started within a week after the accident in Fukushima. Since the iodine-131 plume moved around in wide areas and for a long time, the method of thyroid protection must be reconsidered. PMID:24783014

Ethical Issues Related to the Promotion of a "100 mSv Threshold Assumption" in Japan after the Fukushima Nuclear Accident in 2011: Background and Consequences.

PubMed

Tsuda, Toshihide; Lindahl, Lena; Tokinobu, Akiko

2017-06-01

This article describes the debates in Japan regarding the 100 mSv threshold assumption and ethical issues related to it, and explores the background to distorted risk information and absence of risk communication in Japan. Then we seek proper risk communication based on scientific evidence. On March 11, 2011 an accident occurred at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant due to the Great East Japan Earthquake. Since then a number of misunderstandings have become common in Japan as a result of public statements by the Japanese and local governments that have no basis in medical science or are contradictory to medical science. Consequently, not only the population of Fukushima Prefecture, but also others, have been subjected to unnecessary exposure to radiation, against the As Low As Reasonably Achievable (ALARA) principle. The number of cases of thyroid cancer has increased by one or two orders of magnitude since the accident in Fukushima. However, the population has hardly been given any correct information from the central and local governments, medical societies, and media. The center of this problem is a statement on radiation-induced cancer (including thyroid cancer) made by the Japanese Government and Japanese medical academic societies indicating that "exposure of less than 100 mSv gives rise to no excess risk of cancer, and even if there is some resulting cancer it will be impossible to detect it" (this will be referred to as "the 100 mSv threshold assumption" from now onward). They have been saying this since April 2011 and have made no effort to correct it. Many Japanese began to notice this but correct information on radiation protection has reached only one part of the population. Risk communication should be based on scientific evidence, and providing it as information for the public is a key element. In Japan, governments and academic societies tried to communicate with the public without doing it. Ethical problems after the accident in Fukushima can be understood from the consequences of the mistakes in both risk information and risk communication in Japan after 2011.

Analysis of the SL-1 Accident Using RELAPS5-3D

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Francisco, A.D. and Tomlinson, E. T.

2007-11-08

On January 3, 1961, at the National Reactor Testing Station, in Idaho Falls, Idaho, the Stationary Low Power Reactor No. 1 (SL-1) experienced a major nuclear excursion, killing three people, and destroying the reactor core. The SL-1 reactor, a 3 MW{sub t} boiling water reactor, was shut down and undergoing routine maintenance work at the time. This paper presents an analysis of the SL-1 reactor excursion using the RELAP5-3D thermal-hydraulic and nuclear analysis code, with the intent of simulating the accident from the point of reactivity insertion to destruction and vaporization of the fuel. Results are presented, along with amore » discussion of sensitivity to some reactor and transient parameters (many of the details are only known with a high level of uncertainty).« less

Normal accidents: Living with high-risk technologies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Perrow, Ch.

1984-01-01

It was a major nuclear accident, the one at Three Mile Island in 1979, that turned Perrow's attention to accidents in general. A specialist in the sociology of organizations, he soon learned that events at TMI were not simply the result of an engineering failure or the result of operator error; rather, they were a consequence of systems failure. What the author learned from his research into the accident at TMI is that there was no coherent theory of accidents in either the engineering or the social science literature, so he set out to create one. This book discusses themore » science of accident research. Since Perrow is an outsider to all of the many technical fields reviewed in the book, ranging from nuclear power to marine transport to DNA research, experts may challenge his sources and point out his errors. Perrow's central thesis is that accidents are inevitable - that is, they are ''normal'' - in technologies that have two system characteristics that he terms ''interactive complexity'' and ''tight coupling''. Using these concepts, Perrow constructs a theory of systems which he believes to be unique in the literature on accidents and the literature on organizations. His theory concentrates upon the properties of systems themselves, rather than on the errors that owners, designers and operators make in running them. He seeks a more basic explanation than operator error; faulty design or equipment; inadequately trained personnel; or the system is too big, under-financed or mismanaged. Nuclear power in the United States may not survive its current economic and regulatory troubles, but discussion continues. Only a small part of the debate concerns plant safety: economic competitiveness, nuclear arms proliferation and nuclear waste disposal are the salient themes.« less

Between Development and Environment: Uncertainties of Agrofuels

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Leon Sicard, Tomas Enrique

2009-01-01

This article examines the dominant agricultural model in Colombia of which the emergence of biofuels is an inevitable and major consequence. Some uncertainties and complexities of the introduction of biofuels and the use of genetically modified crops are analyzed, including a general reflection on the possibilities of producing biofuels on the…

Natural hazard modeling and uncertainty analysis [Chapter 2

Treesearch

Matthew Thompson; Jord J. Warmink

2017-01-01

Modeling can play a critical role in assessing and mitigating risks posed by natural hazards. These modeling efforts generally aim to characterize the occurrence, intensity, and potential consequences of natural hazards. Uncertainties surrounding the modeling process can have important implications for the development, application, evaluation, and interpretation of...

Link state relationships under incident conditions : using a CTM-based linear programming dynamic traffic assignment model.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-03-01

Urban transportation networks, consisting of numerous links and nodes, experience traffic incidents such as accidents and road : maintenance work. A typical consequence of incidents is congestion which results in long queues and causes high travel ti...

Link State Relationships Under Incident Conditions: Using a CTM-Based Linear Programming Dynamic Traffic Assignment Model

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-03-01

Urban transportation networks, consisting of numerous links and nodes, experience traffic incidents such as accidents and road maintenance work. A typical consequence of incidents is congestion which results in long queues and causes high travel time...

Potential for Fuel Tank Fire and Hydrodynamic Ram from Uncontained Aircraft Engine Debris

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-01-01

This report addresses the potential consequences of the impact and penetration of fuel tanks by debris from uncontained engine failures on commercial jet aircraft. The report presents a brief review of accident data and of the pertinent technical lit...

An overview of current knowledge concerning the health and environmental consequences of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) accident.

PubMed

Aliyu, Abubakar Sadiq; Evangeliou, Nikolaos; Mousseau, Timothy Alexander; Wu, Junwen; Ramli, Ahmad Termizi

2015-12-01

Since 2011, the scientific community has worked to identify the exact transport and deposition patterns of radionuclides released from the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) in Japan. Nevertheless, there still remain many unknowns concerning the health and environmental impacts of these radionuclides. The present paper reviews the current understanding of the FDNPP accident with respect to interactions of the released radionuclides with the environment and impacts on human and non-human biota. Here, we scrutinize existing literature and combine and interpret observations and modeling assessments derived after Fukushima. Finally, we discuss the behavior and applications of radionuclides that might be used as tracers of environmental processes. This review focuses on (137)Cs and (131)I releases derived from Fukushima. Published estimates suggest total release amounts of 12-36.7PBq of (137)Cs and 150-160PBq of (131)I. Maximum estimated human mortality due to the Fukushima nuclear accident is 10,000 (due to all causes) and the maximum estimates for lifetime cancer mortality and morbidity are 1500 and 1800, respectively. Studies of plants and animals in the forests of Fukushima have recorded a range of physiological, developmental, morphological, and behavioral consequences of exposure to radioactivity. Some of the effects observed in the exposed populations include the following: hematological aberrations in Fukushima monkeys; genetic, developmental and morphological aberrations in a butterfly; declines in abundances of birds, butterflies and cicadas; aberrant growth forms in trees; and morphological abnormalities in aphids. These findings are discussed from the perspective of conservation biology. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Invasion of microorganisms in bronchial mucosa of liquidators of the Chernobyl accident consequences].

PubMed

Poliakova, V A; Suchko, V A; Tereshchenko, V P; Bazyka, D A; Golovnia, O M; Rudavskaia, G A

2001-01-01

Bronchial bioptates of 97 liquidators of the Chernobyl accident consequences with chronic bronchitis and 23 patients of control nosological group as well as sputum (174 persons) and BAL (22 persons) of liquidators with chronic obstructive lung disease (COLD) were studied to define pathogenic role of automicroflora in the development of lung diseases. Such methods as electron microscopy, immunohistochemistry and microbiology were used. The revealed invasion of microorganisms occurred against the background of pathology of superficial bronchial epithelium with a decrease of HLA-DR and CD23 lymphocytes and increase of CD1c lymphocytes in lamina propria of bronchial mucosa of the liquidators. Verification of microorganisms characteristic of the upper respiratory tracts and atypical presence of Escherichia coli were found in the contents of the lower parts of broncho-pulmonary system of the liquidators. The obtained results testify to the activation of automicroflora and appearance of pathogenic microorganisms were caused by deterioration of specific and non-specific immune protection in liquidators with COLD.

The work programme of NERIS in post-accident recovery.

PubMed

Schneider, T; Andronopoulos, S; Camps, J; Duranova, T; Gallego, E; Gering, F; Isnard, O; Maître, M; Murith, C; Oughton, D; Raskob, W

2018-01-01

NERIS is the European platform on preparedness for nuclear and radiological emergency response and recovery. Created in 2010 with 57 organisations from 28 different countries, the objectives of the platform are to: improve the effectiveness and coherency of current approaches to preparedness; identify further development needs; improve 'know how' and technical expertise; and establish a forum for dialogue and methodological development. The NERIS Strategic Research Agenda is now structured with three main challenges: (i) radiological impact assessments during all phases of nuclear and radiological events; (ii) countermeasures and countermeasure strategies in emergency and recovery, decision support, and disaster informatics; and (iii) setting up a multi-faceted framework for preparedness for emergency response and recovery. The Fukushima accident has highlighted some key issues for further consideration in NERIS research activities, including: the importance of transparency of decision-making processes at local, regional, and national levels; the key role of access to environmental monitoring; the importance of dealing with uncertainties in assessment and management of the different phases of the accident; the use of modern social media in the exchange of information; the role of stakeholder involvement processes in both emergency and recovery situations; considerations of societal, ethical, and economic aspects; and the reinforcement of education and training for various actors. This paper emphasises the main issues at stake for NERIS for post-accident management.

Radiation-Driven Migration: The Case of Minamisoma City, Fukushima, Japan, after the Fukushima Nuclear Accident

PubMed Central

Zhang, Hui; Yan, Wanglin; Oba, Akihiro; Zhang, Wei

2014-01-01

The emigration of residents following the Fukushima nuclear accident has resulted in aging and depopulation problems in radiation-contaminated areas. The recovery of affected areas, and even those areas with low radioactive pollution levels, is still heavily affected by this problem. This slow recovery consequently affects immigration patterns. This review aims to present possible factors that have contributed to this dilemma. We first present an overview of the evacuation protocol that was administered in the study area following the Fukushima accident. We then analyze characteristics of the subsequent exodus by comparing population data for both before and after the accident. Based on the findings of existing literature, we identify three causes of emigration: (1) The health risks of living in a low radiation zone are still unknown; (2) The post-disaster psychological disturbance and distrust of government information promotes the emigration of evacuees; (3) an absence of economic vitality and of a leading industry renders the area less attractive to individuals residing outside of the city. Further research is needed on this issue, especially with respect to countermeasures for addressing this problem. PMID:25207491

The differentiated assessment of damage to economy of subjects of the Siberian Federal District from road and transport accident rate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petrov, Artur I.; Svistunova, Vera A.; Petrova, Daria A.

2018-01-01

The results of assessment of damage from the road accident rate in subjects of the Siberian Federal District (SFD) of the Russian Federation are presented in the article. The thesis about spatial differentiation of the Gross Regional Product (GRP) losses in different regions of the country because of people’s death and injuries in the road accidents (RA) and due to formations of property and ecological damage was chosen as a working hypothesis. The calculations, carried out for 12 subjects of the SFD, confirmed this idea. The range of calculated values of economic damage from road accident rate (in % of GRP) was from 1.3 (Tomsk region) to 12.6 (Republic of Tyva) in 2015. In article the attempt to explain the received result by heterogeneous development of economics in various Russian regions is made. The consequence of it is a heterogeneous quality of people’s life and quite various perception of life value by inhabitants of different regions that influences their life safety level.

Physical, social and emotional function after work accidents: a medicolegal perspective.

PubMed

Holtedahl, Robin; Veiersted, Kaj Bo

2007-01-01

The aim of this study was to analyse social and functional consequences of work accidents in a group of workers' compensation claimants who had been referred from the National Insurance Administration for a medicolegal assessment. The injured workers were evaluated on average 3 years after their accidents. Their medical records were analysed, and each injury was scored according to the Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS). Participants completed the Short Form Questionnaire (SF-36). Factors relating to outcome on SF-36 were analysed using univariate and multivariate methods. 191 claimants returned the SF-36 (62%), 83% of the respondents had an AIS score of less than two, 33% reported working full time. Compared to population-based norms, the respondents reported significantly reduced health on all eight scales of SF-36. Better health and function was mainly associated with a higher level of education and more serious injuries. The extent of social support in the workplace after the accident was only partly related to outcome. The importance of psychosocial factors when making injury assessments in a medicolegal setting is highlighted.

Global risk of radioactive fallout after major nuclear reactor accidents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lelieveld, J.; Kunkel, D.; Lawrence, M. G.

2012-05-01

Major reactor accidents of nuclear power plants are rare, yet the consequences are catastrophic. But what is meant by "rare"? And what can be learned from the Chernobyl and Fukushima incidents? Here we assess the cumulative, global risk of exposure to radioactivity due to atmospheric dispersion of gases and particles following severe nuclear accidents (the most severe ones on the International Nuclear Event Scale, INES 7), using particulate 137Cs and gaseous 131I as proxies for the fallout. Our results indicate that previously the occurrence of INES 7 major accidents and the risks of radioactive contamination have been underestimated. Using a global model of the atmosphere we compute that on average, in the event of a major reactor accident of any nuclear power plant worldwide, more than 90% of emitted 137Cs would be transported beyond 50 km and about 50% beyond 1000 km distance before being deposited. This corroborates that such accidents have large-scale and trans-boundary impacts. Although the emission strengths and atmospheric removal processes of 137Cs and 131I are quite different, the radioactive contamination patterns over land and the human exposure due to deposition are computed to be similar. High human exposure risks occur around reactors in densely populated regions, notably in West Europe and South Asia, where a major reactor accident can subject around 30 million people to radioactive contamination. The recent decision by Germany to phase out its nuclear reactors will reduce the national risk, though a large risk will still remain from the reactors in neighbouring countries.

Is imposing risk awareness cultural imperialism?

PubMed

Førde, O H

1998-11-01

Epidemiology is the main supplier of "bases of action" for preventive medicine and health promotion. Epidemiology and epidemiologists therefore have a responsibility not only for the quality and soundness of the risk estimates they deliver and for the way they are interpreted and used, but also for their consequences. In the industrialised world, the value of, and fascination with health is greater than ever, and the revelation from epidemiological research of new hazards and risks, conveyed to the public by the media, has become almost an every-day phenomenon. This "risk epidemic" in the modern media is paralleled in professional medical journals. It is in general endorsed by health promoters as a necessary foundation for increased health awareness and a desirable impetus for people to take responsibility for their own health through behavioural changes. Epidemiologists and health promoters, however, have in general not taken the possible side effects of increased risk awareness seriously enough. By increasing anxiety regarding disease, accidents and other adverse events, the risk epidemic enhances both health care dependence and health care consumption. More profoundly, and perhaps even more seriously, it changes the way people think about health, disease and death--and ultimately and at least potentially, their perspective on life more generally. The message from the odds ratios from epidemiological research advocates a rationalistic, individualistic, prospective life perspective where maximising control and minimising uncertainty is seen as a superior goal. The inconsistency between applying an expanded health concept, comprising elements of coping, self-realisation and psycho-physical functioning, and imposing intolerance to risk and uncertainty, is regularly overlooked. Acceptance and tolerance of risk and uncertainty, which are inherent elements of human life, is a prerequisite for coping and self-realisation. A further shift away from traditional working-class values like sociability, sharing, conviviality and tolerance can not be imposed without unwanted side effects on culture and human interaction. The moral and coercive crusade for increased risk awareness and purity in life style can too readily take on the form of cultural imperialism towards conformity. Epidemiologists and the health care movement in general have a mandate to fight disease and premature death; they have no explicit mandate to change culture.

Causal uncertainty, claimed and behavioural self-handicapping.

PubMed

Thompson, Ted; Hepburn, Jonathan

2003-06-01

Causal uncertainty beliefs involve doubts about the causes of events, and arise as a consequence of non-contingent evaluative feedback: feedback that leaves the individual uncertain about the causes of his or her achievement outcomes. Individuals high in causal uncertainty are frequently unable to confidently attribute their achievement outcomes, experience anxiety in achievement situations and as a consequence are likely to engage in self-handicapping behaviour. Accordingly, we sought to establish links between trait causal uncertainty, claimed and behavioural self-handicapping. Participants were N=72 undergraduate students divided equally between high and low causally uncertain groups. We used a 2 (causal uncertainty status: high, low) x 3 (performance feedback condition: success, non-contingent success, non-contingent failure) between-subjects factorial design to examine the effects of causal uncertainty on achievement behaviour. Following performance feedback, participants completed 20 single-solution anagrams and 12 remote associate tasks serving as performance measures, and 16 unicursal tasks to assess practice effort. Participants also completed measures of claimed handicaps, state anxiety and attributions. Relative to low causally uncertain participants, high causally uncertain participants claimed more handicaps prior to performance on the anagrams and remote associates, reported higher anxiety, attributed their failure to internal, stable factors, and reduced practice effort on the unicursal tasks, evident in fewer unicursal tasks solved. These findings confirm links between trait causal uncertainty and claimed and behavioural self-handicapping, highlighting the need for educators to facilitate means by which students can achieve surety in the manner in which they attribute the causes of their achievement outcomes.

Health effects models for nuclear power plant accident consequence analysis. Part 1, Introduction, integration, and summary: Revision 2

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Evans, J.S.; Abrahmson, S.; Bender, M.A.

1993-10-01

This report is a revision of NUREG/CR-4214, Rev. 1, Part 1 (1990), Health Effects Models for Nuclear Power Plant Accident Consequence Analysis. This revision has been made to incorporate changes to the Health Effects Models recommended in two addenda to the NUREG/CR-4214, Rev. 1, Part 11, 1989 report. The first of these addenda provided recommended changes to the health effects models for low-LET radiations based on recent reports from UNSCEAR, ICRP and NAS/NRC (BEIR V). The second addendum presented changes needed to incorporate alpha-emitting radionuclides into the accident exposure source term. As in the earlier version of this report, modelsmore » are provided for early and continuing effects, cancers and thyroid nodules, and genetic effects. Weibull dose-response functions are recommended for evaluating the risks of early and continuing health effects. Three potentially lethal early effects -- the hematopoietic, pulmonary, and gastrointestinal syndromes are considered. Linear and linear-quadratic models are recommended for estimating the risks of seven types of cancer in adults - leukemia, bone, lung, breast, gastrointestinal, thyroid, and ``other``. For most cancers, both incidence and mortality are addressed. Five classes of genetic diseases -- dominant, x-linked, aneuploidy, unbalanced translocations, and multifactorial diseases are also considered. Data are provided that should enable analysts to consider the timing and severity of each type of health risk.« less

Consequences of the nuclear power plant accident at Chernobyl.

PubMed Central

Ginzburg, H M; Reis, E

1991-01-01

The Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant accident, in the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic (SSR), on April 26, 1986, was the first major nuclear power plant accident that resulted in a large-scale fire and subsequent explosions, immediate and delayed deaths of plant operators and emergency service workers, and the radioactive contamination of a significant land area. The release of radioactive material, over a 10-day period, resulted in millions of Soviets, and other Europeans, being exposed to measurable levels of radioactive fallout. Because of the effects of wind and rain, the radioactive nuclide fallout distribution patterns are not well defined, though they appear to be focused in three contiguous Soviet Republics: the Ukrainian SSR, the Byelorussian SSR, and the Russian Soviet Federated Socialist Republic. Further, because of the many radioactive nuclides (krypton, xenon, cesium, iodine, strontium, plutonium) released by the prolonged fires at Chernobyl, the long-term medical, psychological, social, and economic effects will require careful and prolonged study. Specifically, studies on the medical (leukemia, cancers, thyroid disease) and psychological (reactive depressions, post-traumatic stress disorders, family disorganization) consequences of continued low dose radiation exposure in the affected villages and towns need to be conducted so that a coherent, comprehensive, community-oriented plan may evolve that will not cause those already affected any additional harm and confusion. Images p38-a p38-b PMID:1899937

Context-aware system for pre-triggering irreversible vehicle safety actuators.

PubMed

Böhmländer, Dennis; Dirndorfer, Tobias; Al-Bayatti, Ali H; Brandmeier, Thomas

2017-06-01

New vehicle safety systems have led to a steady improvement of road safety and a reduction in the risk of suffering a major injury in vehicle accidents. A huge leap forward in the development of new vehicle safety systems are actuators that have to be activated irreversibly shortly before a collision in order to mitigate accident consequences. The triggering decision has to be based on measurements of exteroceptive sensors currently used in driver assistance systems. This paper focuses on developing a novel context-aware system designed to detect potential collisions and to trigger safety actuators even before an accident occurs. In this context, the analysis examines the information that can be collected from exteroceptive sensors (pre-crash data) to predict a certain collision and its severity to decide whether a triggering is entitled or not. A five-layer context-aware architecture is presented, that is able to collect contextual information about the vehicle environment and the actual driving state using different sensors, to perform reasoning about potential collisions, and to trigger safety functions upon that information. Accident analysis is used in a data model to represent uncertain knowledge and to perform reasoning. A simulation concept based on real accident data is introduced to evaluate the presented system concept. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Infant homicide and accidental death in the United States, 1940-2005: ethics and epidemiological classification.

PubMed

Riggs, Jack E; Hobbs, Gerald R

2011-07-01

Potential ethical issues can arise during the process of epidemiological classification. For example, unnatural infant deaths are classified as accidental deaths or homicides. Societal sensitivity to the physical abuse and neglect of children has increased over recent decades. This enhanced sensitivity could impact reported infant homicide rates. Infant homicide and accident mortality rates in boys and girls in the USA from 1940 to 2005 were analysed. In 1940, infant accident mortality rates were over 20 times greater than infant homicide rates in both boys and girls. After about 1980, when the ratio of infant accident mortality rates to infant homicide rates decreased to less than five, and the sum of infant accident and homicide rates became relatively constant, further decreases in infant accident mortality rates were associated with increases in reported infant homicide rates. These findings suggest that the dramatic decline of accidental infant mortality and recent increased societal sensitivity to child abuse may be related to the increased infant homicide rates observed in the USA since 1980 rather than an actual increase in societal violence directed against infants. Ethical consequences of epidemiological classification, involving the principles of beneficence, non-maleficence and justice, are suggested by observed patterns in infant accidental deaths and homicides in the USA from 1940 to 2005.

Contribution of internal exposures to the radiological consequences of the Chernobyl accident.

PubMed

Balonov, M I; Anspaugh, L R; Bouville, A; Likhtarev, I A

2007-01-01

The main pathways leading to exposure of members of the general public due to the Chernobyl accident were external exposure from radionuclides deposited on the ground and ingestion of contaminated terrestrial food products. The collective dose to the thyroid was nearly 1.5 million man Gy in Belarus, Russia and Ukraine with nearly half received by children and adolescents. The collective effective dose received in 1986-2005 by approximately five million residents living in the affected areas of the three countries was approximately 50,000 man Sv with approximately 40% from ingestion. That contribution might have been larger if countermeasures had not been applied. The main radionuclide contributing to both external and internal effective dose is 137Cs with smaller contributions of 134Cs and 90Sr and negligible contribution of transuranic elements. The major demonstrated radiation-caused health effect of the Chernobyl accident has been an elevated incidence of thyroid cancer in children.

The importance of early investigation and publishing in an emergent health and environment crisis.

PubMed

Murase, Kaori

2016-10-01

To minimize the damage resulting from a long-term environmental disaster such as the 2011 Fukushima nuclear accident in Japan, early disclosure of research data by scientists and prompt decision making by government authorities are required in place of careful, time-consuming research and deliberation about the consequences and cause of the accident. A Bayesian approach with flexible statistical modeling helps scientists and encourages government authorities to make decisions based on environmental data available in the early stages of a disaster. It is evident from Fukushima and similar accidents that classical research methods involving statistical methodologies that require rigorous experimental design and complex data sets are too cumbersome and delay important actions that may be critical in the early stages of an environmental disaster. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2016;12:680-682. © 2016 SETAC. © 2016 SETAC.

Sleep Apnea and Driving. Recommendations for Interpreting Spanish Regulations for Drivers.

PubMed

Terán-Santos, Joaquín; Egea Santaolalla, Carlos; Montserrat, Jose María; Masa Jiménez, Fernando; Librada Escribano, Maria Villar; Mirabet, Enrique; Valdés Rodríguez, Elena

2017-06-01

Road traffic accidents are one of the main causes of death worldwide and are clearly associated with sleepiness. Individuals with undiagnosed sleep apnea-hypopnea syndrome (SAHS) are among the population with a high risk of experiencing sleepiness at the wheel and, consequently, road traffic accidents. Treatment with continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) has been shown to reduce the risk of accidents among drivers with SAHS. For this reason, the European Union has included this disease in the psychological and physical criteria for obtaining or renewing a driving license. To comply with this European Directive, Spain has updated its driving laws accordingly. To facilitate the implementation of the new regulations, a group of experts from various medical societies and institutions has prepared these guidelines that include questionnaires to screen for SAHS, diagnostic and therapeutic criteria, and physician's report templates. Copyright © 2016 SEPAR. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

[Chronological assessment of the preventive measures taken in the field of road traffic accidents in France. Methodological problems and results. (author's transl)].

PubMed

Hatton, F; Bouvier, M H; Maujol, L

1981-01-01

Corresponding to a non-experimental approach and based upon the study of indices obtained from permanent statistics, this assessment presents methodological difficulties linked both: to the choice of permanant indicators and to the interpretation of their variations in a situation of observation. The results permit us to appraise the consequences of the global policy of prevention in the field of road traffic accidents in France during many consecutive years: - the decrease of mortality and morbidity demographic indices; - the strengthening of the regressive tendency of the risk indices linked to road traffic (number of dead and wounded in relation to the "km" covered, to the consumption of motor-fuel...). The agreement of the evolutive tendencies of these indicators lets us think that the campaign against traffic accidents has had the desired effects even if they are still incomplete.

Comorbidity and radiation: methodological aspects of health assessment of persons exposed to the Chornobyl accident factors.

PubMed

Nosach, O V

2013-01-01

Comorbidity is one of the most challenging problems of a modern medicine. In a population exposed to the factors of the Chornobyl accident there is an obvious increase in the number of diseases occurring simultaneously against the background of rising prevalence of different classes of chronic medical nosology. The scientific data analysis are presented on the methodological approaches that can be used to create a specialized system for integrated assessment of the health of patients with comorbid disorders. Developing such a system it should be taken into account the trends of changes in the incidence, prevalence and structure of chronic disease, factors and regularities of comorbid disease in the cohorts of Chornobyl accident clean-up workers, evacuees and dwellers of contaminated territories. The system should provide a non-random selection of combinations (clusters) of the most common diseases with serious consequences for the survivors. Nosach O. V., 2013.

Workplace safety in Bangladesh ready-made garment sector: 3 years after the Rana Plaza collapse.

PubMed

Barua, Uttama; Ansary, Mehedi Ahmed

2017-12-01

Workplace safety is one of the most important issues in industries worldwide, and is endangered by industrial accidents. Different industrial disasters have resulted in several initiatives worldwide to protect human life and reduce material damage, both nationally and internationally. In Bangladesh, the ready-made garment (RMG) industry is one of the most important export-oriented business sectors, which is facing challenges to ensure workplace safety. The Rana Plaza collapse in Bangladesh is the consequence of such non-compliance. The accident resulted in different local and global initiatives to address the challenges. This article reviews progress and achievement of the initiatives to reduce vulnerability in the Bangladesh RMG industry within 3 years after the deadly accident. In the long run, the challenge is to maintain momentum already created for achieving sustainability in the RMG sector in Bangladesh and maintaining compliance even after the end of support from external partners.

NAPS as an Alertness Management Strategy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rosekind, Mark R.; Smith, Roy M.; Miller, Donna L.; Co, Elizabeth L.; Gregory, Kevin B.; Gander, Philippa H.; Lebacqz, J. Victor

2001-01-01

Today, 24-hour operations are necessary to meet the demands of our society and the requirements of our industrialized global economy. These around-the-clock demands pose unique physiological challenges for the humans who remain central to safe and productive operations. Optimal alertness and performance are critical factors that are increasingly challenged by unusual, extended, or changing work/rest schedules. Technological advancements and automated systems can exacerbate the challenges faced by the human factor in these environments. Shift work, transportation demands, and continuous operations engender sleep loss and circadian disruption. Both of these physiological factors can lead to increased sleepiness, decreased performance, and a reduced margin of safety. These factors can increase vulnerability to incidents and accidents in operational settings. The consequences can have both societal effects (e.g., major destructive accidents such as Three Mile Island, Exxon Valdez, Bhopal) and personal effects (e.g., an accident driving home after a night shift).

Imitation Is Not Always Flattery! The Consequences of Academy Schools in England for Further Education Policy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ingleby, Ewan; Tummons, Jonathan

2017-01-01

This article explores the consequences of the introduction of academy schools in England for further education. It is argued that the uncertainty of the remit of academy schools has indirect consequences for further education and that the employability agenda of the sector is challenged by academy schools. This appears to be happening because of…

Challenge and Error: Critical Events and Attention-Related Errors

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cheyne, James Allan; Carriere, Jonathan S. A.; Solman, Grayden J. F.; Smilek, Daniel

2011-01-01

Attention lapses resulting from reactivity to task challenges and their consequences constitute a pervasive factor affecting everyday performance errors and accidents. A bidirectional model of attention lapses (error [image omitted] attention-lapse: Cheyne, Solman, Carriere, & Smilek, 2009) argues that errors beget errors by generating attention…

Probabilistic Structural Health Monitoring of the Orbiter Wing Leading Edge

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yap, Keng C.; Macias, Jesus; Kaouk, Mohamed; Gafka, Tammy L.; Kerr, Justin H.

2011-01-01

A structural health monitoring (SHM) system can contribute to the risk management of a structure operating under hazardous conditions. An example is the Wing Leading Edge Impact Detection System (WLEIDS) that monitors the debris hazards to the Space Shuttle Orbiter s Reinforced Carbon-Carbon (RCC) panels. Since Return-to-Flight (RTF) after the Columbia accident, WLEIDS was developed and subsequently deployed on board the Orbiter to detect ascent and on-orbit debris impacts, so as to support the assessment of wing leading edge structural integrity prior to Orbiter re-entry. As SHM is inherently an inverse problem, the analyses involved, including those performed for WLEIDS, tend to be associated with significant uncertainty. The use of probabilistic approaches to handle the uncertainty has resulted in the successful implementation of many development and application milestones.

Emergence, reductionism and landscape response to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harrison, Stephan; Mighall, Tim

2010-05-01

Predicting landscape response to external forcing is hampered by the non-linear, stochastic and contingent (ie dominated by historical accidents) forcings inherent in landscape evolution. Using examples from research carried out in southwest Ireland we suggest that non-linearity in landform evolution is likely to be a strong control making regional predictions of landscape response to climate change very difficult. While uncertainties in GCM projections have been widely explored in climate science much less attention has been directed by geomorphologists to the uncertainties in landform evolution under conditions of climate change and this problem may be viewed within the context of philosophical approaches to reductionsim and emergence. Understanding the present and future trajectory of landform change may also guide us to provide an enhanced appreciation of how landforms evolved in the past.

The Role of Spatial Disorientation in Fatal General Aviation Accidents

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Scheuring, RIchard

2005-01-01

In-flight Spatial Disorientation (SD) in pilots is a serious threat to aviation safety. Indeed, SD may play a much larger role in aviation accidents than the approximate 6-8% reported by the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) each year, because some accidents coded by the NTSB as aircraft control-not maintained (ACNM) may actually result from SD. The purpose of this study is to determine whether SD is underestimated as a cause of fatal general aviation (GA) accidents in the NTSB database. Fatal GA airplane accidents occurring between January 1995 and December 1999 were reviewed from the NTSB aviation accident database. Cases coded as ACNM or SD as the probable cause were selected for review by a panel of aerospace medicine specialists. Using a rating scale, each rater was instructed to determine if SD was the probable cause of the accident. Agreement between the raters and agreement between the raters and the NTSB were evaluated by Kappa statistics. The raters agreed that 11 out of 20 (55%) accidents coded by the NTSB as ACNM were probably caused by SD (p less than 0.05). Agreement between the raters and the NTSB did not reach significance (p greater than 0.05). The 95% C.I. for the sampling population estimated that between 33-77% of cases that the NTSB identified as ACNM could be identified by aerospace medicine experts as SD. Aerospace medicine specialists agreed that some cases coded by the NTSB as ACNM were probably caused by SD. Consequently, a larger number of accidents may be caused by the pilot succumbing to SD than indicated in the NTSB database. This new information should encourage regulating agencies to insure that pilots receive SD recognition training, enabling them to take appropriate corrective actions during flight. This could lead to new training standards, ultimately saving lives among GA airplane pilots.

Lessons Learned Through the Follow-up of the Long-Term Effects of Over-Exposure to an Ir192 Industrial Radiography Source in Bangladesh

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jalil, A.; Rabbani, G.; Hossain, M. K.

2003-02-24

An industrial radiographer was accidentally over-exposed while taking the radiograph of weld-joints of gas pipe-lines in 1985 in Bangladesh. Symptoms of high radiation exposure occurred immediately after the accident and skin erythema developed leading to progressive tissue deterioration. The consequences of this over-exposure is being followed up to assess the long-term effects of ionizing radiation on the victim. Progressive tissue deteriorations have already led to multiple surgeries and successive amputations of the finger-tips so far. Lessons learned from this accident are also reported in this paper.

Severe Accident Sequence Analysis Program: Anticipated transient without scram simulations for Browns Ferry Nuclear Plant Unit 1

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dallman, R J; Gottula, R C; Holcomb, E E

1987-05-01

An analysis of five anticipated transients without scram (ATWS) was conducted at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL). The five detailed deterministic simulations of postulated ATWS sequences were initiated from a main steamline isolation valve (MSIV) closure. The subject of the analysis was the Browns Ferry Nuclear Plant Unit 1, a boiling water reactor (BWR) of the BWR/4 product line with a Mark I containment. The simulations yielded insights to the possible consequences resulting from a MSIV closure ATWS. An evaluation of the effects of plant safety systems and operator actions on accident progression and mitigation is presented.

Scientific uncertainty in media content: Introduction to this special issue.

PubMed

Peters, Hans Peter; Dunwoody, Sharon

2016-11-01

This introduction sets the stage for the special issue on the public communication of scientific uncertainty that follows by sketching the wider landscape of issues related to the communication of uncertainty and showing how the individual contributions fit into that landscape. The first part of the introduction discusses the creation of media content as a process involving journalists, scientific sources, stakeholders, and the responsive audience. The second part then provides an overview of the perception of scientific uncertainty presented by the media and the consequences for the recipients' own assessments of uncertainty. Finally, we briefly describe the six research articles included in this special issue. © The Author(s) 2016.

Relatively Certain! Comparative Thinking Reduces Uncertainty

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mussweiler, Thomas; Posten, Ann-Christin

2012-01-01

Comparison is one of the most ubiquitous and versatile mechanisms in human information processing. Previous research demonstrates that one consequence of comparative thinking is increased judgmental efficiency: Comparison allows for quicker judgments without a loss in accuracy. We hypothesised that a second potential consequence of comparative…

[Work accidents and automatic circuit reclosers in the electricity sector: beyond the immediate causes].

PubMed

Silva, Alessandro Jose Nunes da; Almeida, Ildeberto Muniz de; Vilela, Rodolfo Andrade de Gouveia; Mendes, Renata Wey Berti; Hurtado, Sandra Lorena Beltran

2018-05-10

The Brazilian electricity sector has recorded high work-related mortality rates that have been associated with outsourcing, used to cut costs. In order to decrease the power outage time for consumers, the industry adopted the automatic circuit recloser as the technical solution. The device has hazardous implications for maintenance workers. The aim of this study was to analyze the origins and consequences of work accidents in power systems with automatic circuit recloser, using the Accident Analysis and Prevention (AAP) model. The AAP model was used to investigate two work accidents, aimed to explore the events' organizational origins. Case 1 - when changing a deenergized secondary line, a worker received a shock from the energized primary cable (13.8kV). The system reclosed three times, causing severe injury to the worker (amputation of a lower limb). Case 2 - a fatal work accident occurred during installation of a new crosshead on a partially insulated energized line. The tip of a metal cross arm section strap touched the energized secondary line and electrocuted the maintenance operator. The circuit breaker component of the automatic circuit recloser failed. The analyses revealed how business management logic can participate in the root causes of work accidents through failures in maintenance management, outsourced workforce management, and especially safety management in systems with reclosers. Decisions to adopt automation to guarantee power distribution should not overlook the risks to workers in overhead power lines or fail to acknowledge the importance of ensuring safe conditions.

Evaluation of risk from acts of terrorism :the adversary/defender model using belief and fuzzy sets.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Darby, John L.

Risk from an act of terrorism is a combination of the likelihood of an attack, the likelihood of success of the attack, and the consequences of the attack. The considerable epistemic uncertainty in each of these three factors can be addressed using the belief/plausibility measure of uncertainty from the Dempster/Shafer theory of evidence. The adversary determines the likelihood of the attack. The success of the attack and the consequences of the attack are determined by the security system and mitigation measures put in place by the defender. This report documents a process for evaluating risk of terrorist acts using anmore » adversary/defender model with belief/plausibility as the measure of uncertainty. Also, the adversary model is a linguistic model that applies belief/plausibility to fuzzy sets used in an approximate reasoning rule base.« less

The Role of Trust and Interaction in Global Positioning System Related Accidents

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Chris W.; Shea, Christine; Holloway, C. Michael

2008-01-01

The Global Positioning System (GPS) uses a network of satellites to calculate the position of a receiver over time. This technology has revolutionized a wide range of safety-critical industries and leisure applications. These systems provide diverse benefits; supplementing the users existing navigation skills and reducing the uncertainty that often characterizes many route planning tasks. GPS applications can also help to reduce workload by automating tasks that would otherwise require finite cognitive and perceptual resources. However, the operation of these systems has been identified as a contributory factor in a range of recent accidents. Users often come to rely on GPS applications and, therefore, fail to notice when they develop faults or when errors occur in the other systems that use the data from these systems. Further accidents can stem from the over confidence that arises when users assume automated warnings will be issued when they stray from an intended route. Unless greater attention is paid to the role of trust and interaction in GPS applications then there is a danger that we will see an increasing number of these failures as positioning technologies become integral in the functioning of increasing numbers of applications.

Interim Status Report for Risk Management for SFRs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jankovsky, Zachary Kyle; Denman, Matthew R.; Groth, Katrina

2015-10-01

Accident management is an important component to maintaining risk at acceptable levels for all complex systems, such as nuclear power plants. With the introduction of passive, or inherently safe, reactor designs the focus has shifted from management by operators to allowing the system's design to take advantage of natural phenomena to manage the accident. Inherently and passively safe designs are laudable, but nonetheless extreme boundary conditions can interfere with the design attributes which facilitate inherent safety, thus resulting in unanticipated and undesirable end states. This report examines an inherently safe and small sodium fast reactor experiencing a variety of beyondmore » design basis events with the intent of exploring the utility of a Dynamic Bayesian Network to infer the state of the reactor to inform the operator's corrective actions. These inferences also serve to identify the instruments most critical to informing an operator's actions as candidates for hardening against radiation and other extreme environmental conditions that may exist in an accident. This reduction in uncertainty serves to inform ongoing discussions of how small sodium reactors would be licensed and may serve to reduce regulatory risk and cost for such reactors.« less

Assessing climate change and socio-economic uncertainties in long term management of water resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jahanshahi, Golnaz; Dawson, Richard; Walsh, Claire; Birkinshaw, Stephen; Glenis, Vassilis

2015-04-01

Long term management of water resources is challenging for decision makers given the range of uncertainties that exist. Such uncertainties are a function of long term drivers of change, such as climate, environmental loadings, demography, land use and other socio economic drivers. Impacts of climate change on frequency of extreme events such as drought make it a serious threat to water resources and water security. The release of probabilistic climate information, such as the UKCP09 scenarios, provides improved understanding of some uncertainties in climate models. This has motivated a more rigorous approach to dealing with other uncertainties in order to understand the sensitivity of investment decisions to future uncertainty and identify adaptation options that are as far as possible robust. We have developed and coupled a system of models that includes a weather generator, simulations of catchment hydrology, demand for water and the water resource system. This integrated model has been applied in the Thames catchment which supplies the city of London, UK. This region is one of the driest in the UK and hence sensitive to water availability. In addition, it is one of the fastest growing parts of the UK and plays an important economic role. Key uncertainties in long term water resources in the Thames catchment, many of which result from earth system processes, are identified and quantified. The implications of these uncertainties are explored using a combination of uncertainty analysis and sensitivity testing. The analysis shows considerable uncertainty in future rainfall, river flow and consequently water resource. For example, results indicate that by the 2050s, low flow (Q95) in the Thames catchment will range from -44 to +9% compared with the control scenario (1970s). Consequently, by the 2050s the average number of drought days are expected to increase 4-6 times relative to the 1970s. Uncertainties associated with urban growth increase these risks further. Adaptation measures, such as new reservoirs can manage these risks to a certain extent, but our sensitivity testing demonstrates that they are less robust to future uncertainties than measures taken to reduce water demand. Keywords: Climate change, Uncertainty, Decision making, Drought, Risk, Water resources management.

Efficiency of preventive actions for landslides and flooding - evaluation of Scandinavian practices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bergman, R.; Andersson-sköld, Y. B.; Nyberg, L.; Johansson, M.; Persson, E.

2011-12-01

Author: Ramona Bergman, Yvonne Andersson-Sköld, Lars Nyberg, Magnus Johansson, Erik Persson Preventive actions can be, and are frequently, taken to reduce accidents and their consequences in different ways. The MSB funded research programme "Effects of Society's Security actions" (ESS, 2009-2013) aims to study the relationship between such actions and their effects. The program is divided into three subgroups: Frequent accidents Natural hazards (such as flooding, erosion and landslide) Chemical and landfill accidents The results presented here covers natural hazards with focus on land slides and flooding. The results are based on Swedish/Scandinavian contexts. Natural events such as erosion, flooding and land slides are common, but the number of accidents (events causing severe negative impact) is rare. Therefore, in such analysis there is limited data and other information available which can be used for example in statistical analysis of actions and their effects. Instead, the analysis must be based on other information. Therefore, the analysis may have to include aspects that only can be assessed by scenario and "what-if" analyses. In this project the main method has been interviews with officials in Swedish municipalities and national agencies in Sweden and Norway. The two levels are chosen since policies are taken on national (or international) level, while the key actions and actors are on the municipal level. The interviews cover experiences and potential scenarios. In all municipalities, one politician and officials working with planning and rescue service have been interviewed. The study covers hazard and risk mapping, follow up of such maps, physical planning and lessons learned from previous events and activities. The final outcome of the research will be a review of what is found to be well functioning, identification of weak points and recommendations for the management of landslides, erosion and flooding. The present results indicate that hazard/risk maps are of great importance, but the knowledge about the maps and how to use them varies depending on who you ask and between municipalities. Most officials in municipalities are aware of climate change (CC) but, due to high uncertainties and since climate induced events such as natural hazards are rare, the issues are often not prioritized. Further, the results indicate that the documentation, communication and the responsibilities among different units is not always clear, having impacts on for example the knowledge transfer to new personnel. Also databases can be useful tools. The project has found that the use of such tools varies between Norway and Sweden. The aim is to identify the reasons for such deviation. The mostly mentioned suggestions of improvement in the prevention process are increased knowledge, user friendly guidance, clear organisational structure and responsibilities and nationally provided ear marked funding for preventive measures.

Climate uncertainty and implications for U.S. state-level risk assessment through 2050.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Loose, Verne W.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Malczynski, Leonard A.

2009-10-01

Decisions for climate policy will need to take place in advance of climate science resolving all relevant uncertainties. Further, if the concern of policy is to reduce risk, then the best-estimate of climate change impacts may not be so important as the currently understood uncertainty associated with realizable conditions having high consequence. This study focuses on one of the most uncertain aspects of future climate change - precipitation - to understand the implications of uncertainty on risk and the near-term justification for interventions to mitigate the course of climate change. We show that the mean risk of damage to themore » economy from climate change, at the national level, is on the order of one trillion dollars over the next 40 years, with employment impacts of nearly 7 million labor-years. At a 1% exceedance-probability, the impact is over twice the mean-risk value. Impacts at the level of individual U.S. states are then typically in the multiple tens of billions dollar range with employment losses exceeding hundreds of thousands of labor-years. We used results of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report 4 (AR4) climate-model ensemble as the referent for climate uncertainty over the next 40 years, mapped the simulated weather hydrologically to the county level for determining the physical consequence to economic activity at the state level, and then performed a detailed, seventy-industry, analysis of economic impact among the interacting lower-48 states. We determined industry GDP and employment impacts at the state level, as well as interstate population migration, effect on personal income, and the consequences for the U.S. trade balance.« less

Drinking Problems of Native American and White Youth.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Forslund, Morris A.

1979-01-01

Found that American Indian youths tend to experience more serious consequences of drinking than do White youths from the same area with regard to feeling high, getting drunk, passing out, suffering loss of memory, being stopped by police, having automobile accidents, and getting into trouble with parents. (Author/BEF)

Chemical Safety Information, Site Security and Fuels Regulatory Relief Act: Public Distribution of Off-Site Consequence Analysis Information Fact Sheet

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Based on assessments of increased risk of terrorist/criminal activity, EPA and DOJ have issued a rule that allows public access to OCA information in ways that are designed to minimize likelihood of chemical accidents and public harm.

49 CFR 195.48 - Scope.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... 49 Transportation 3 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Scope. 195.48 Section 195.48 Transportation Other... Annual, Accident, and Safety-Related Condition Reporting § 195.48 Scope. This Subpart prescribes... report form PHMSA F 7000-1.1 associated with IM or high consequence areas. [76 FR 25588, May 5, 2011] ...

77 FR 55864 - Applications and Amendments to Facility Operating Licenses and Combined Licenses Involving...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-09-11

.... ML111940200), which approved the RBS Cyber Security Plan and associated implementation milestone schedule. The Cyber Security Plan Implementation Schedule contained in the licensee's letter dated April 4, 2011... consequences of an accident previously evaluated? Response: No. The proposed change to the Cyber Security Plan...

The Principles and Implications of Nuclear Winter.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Grover, Herbert D.

1985-01-01

The ecological consequences of nuclear war are discussed. Ultimately, the solution to the nuclear dilemma lies in education. We must come to thoroughly understand the odds we face and must gain control of our destiny from accidents of technological origin as well as from misguided action by any government. (RM)

10 CFR 72.75 - Reporting requirements for specific events and conditions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... regulatory limits, to prevent exposures to radiation or radioactive materials that could exceed regulatory limits, or to mitigate the consequences of an accident; and (ii) No redundant equipment was available and... waste involved in the event; and (v) Any personnel radiation exposure data. (f) Follow-up notification...

10 CFR 72.75 - Reporting requirements for specific events and conditions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... regulatory limits, to prevent exposures to radiation or radioactive materials that could exceed regulatory limits, or to mitigate the consequences of an accident; and (ii) No redundant equipment was available and... waste involved in the event; and (v) Any personnel radiation exposure data. (f) Follow-up notification...

10 CFR 72.75 - Reporting requirements for specific events and conditions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... regulatory limits, to prevent exposures to radiation or radioactive materials that could exceed regulatory limits, or to mitigate the consequences of an accident; and (ii) No redundant equipment was available and... waste involved in the event; and (v) Any personnel radiation exposure data. (f) Follow-up notification...

10 CFR 72.75 - Reporting requirements for specific events and conditions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... regulatory limits, to prevent exposures to radiation or radioactive materials that could exceed regulatory limits, or to mitigate the consequences of an accident; and (ii) No redundant equipment was available and... waste involved in the event; and (v) Any personnel radiation exposure data. (f) Follow-up notification...

Integrity management of offshore structures and its implication on computation of structural action effects and resistance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moan, T.

2017-12-01

An overview of integrity management of offshore structures, with emphasis on the oil and gas energy sector, is given. Based on relevant accident experiences and means to control the associated risks, accidents are categorized from a technical-physical as well as human and organizational point of view. Structural risk relates to extreme actions as well as structural degradation. Risk mitigation measures, including adequate design criteria, inspection, repair and maintenance as well as quality assurance and control of engineering processes, are briefly outlined. The current status of risk and reliability methodology to aid decisions in the integrity management is briefly reviewed. Finally, the need to balance the uncertainties in data, methods and computational efforts and the cautious use and quality assurance and control in applying high fidelity methods to avoid human errors, is emphasized, and with a plea to develop both high fidelity as well as efficient, simplified methods for design.

Extraction of decision rules via imprecise probabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abellán, Joaquín; López, Griselda; Garach, Laura; Castellano, Javier G.

2017-05-01

Data analysis techniques can be applied to discover important relations among features. This is the main objective of the Information Root Node Variation (IRNV) technique, a new method to extract knowledge from data via decision trees. The decision trees used by the original method were built using classic split criteria. The performance of new split criteria based on imprecise probabilities and uncertainty measures, called credal split criteria, differs significantly from the performance obtained using the classic criteria. This paper extends the IRNV method using two credal split criteria: one based on a mathematical parametric model, and other one based on a non-parametric model. The performance of the method is analyzed using a case study of traffic accident data to identify patterns related to the severity of an accident. We found that a larger number of rules is generated, significantly supplementing the information obtained using the classic split criteria.

Risk Assessment in Underground Coalmines Using Fuzzy Logic in the Presence of Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tripathy, Debi Prasad; Ala, Charan Kumar

2018-04-01

Fatal accidents are occurring every year as regular events in Indian coal mining industry. To increase the safety conditions, it has become a prerequisite to performing a risk assessment of various operations in mines. However, due to uncertain accident data, it is hard to conduct a risk assessment in mines. The object of this study is to present a method to assess safety risks in underground coalmines. The assessment of safety risks is based on the fuzzy reasoning approach. Mamdani fuzzy logic model is developed in the fuzzy logic toolbox of MATLAB. A case study is used to demonstrate the applicability of the developed model. The summary of risk evaluation in case study mine indicated that mine fire has the highest risk level among all the hazard factors. This study could help the mine management to prepare safety measures based on the risk rankings obtained.

Special Issue on Uncertainty Quantification in Multiscale System Design and Simulation

DOE PAGES

Wang, Yan; Swiler, Laura

2017-09-07

The importance of uncertainty has been recognized in various modeling, simulation, and analysis applications, where inherent assumptions and simplifications affect the accuracy of model predictions for physical phenomena. As model predictions are now heavily relied upon for simulation-based system design, which includes new materials, vehicles, mechanical and civil structures, and even new drugs, wrong model predictions could potentially cause catastrophic consequences. Therefore, uncertainty and associated risks due to model errors should be quantified to support robust systems engineering.

Special Issue on Uncertainty Quantification in Multiscale System Design and Simulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Yan; Swiler, Laura

The importance of uncertainty has been recognized in various modeling, simulation, and analysis applications, where inherent assumptions and simplifications affect the accuracy of model predictions for physical phenomena. As model predictions are now heavily relied upon for simulation-based system design, which includes new materials, vehicles, mechanical and civil structures, and even new drugs, wrong model predictions could potentially cause catastrophic consequences. Therefore, uncertainty and associated risks due to model errors should be quantified to support robust systems engineering.

Testing prediction capabilities of an 131I terrestrial transport model by using measurements collected at the Hanford nuclear facility.

PubMed

Apostoaei, A Iulian

2005-05-01

A model describing transport of 131I in the environment was developed by SENES Oak Ridge, Inc., for assessment of radiation doses and excess lifetime risk from 131I atmospheric releases from Oak Ridge Reservation in Oak Ridge, Tennessee, and from Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory in southeast Idaho. This paper describes the results of an exercise designed to test the reliability of this model and to identify the main sources of uncertainty in doses and risks estimated by this model. The testing of the model was based on materials published by the International Atomic Energy Agency BIOMASS program, specifically environmental data collected after the release into atmosphere of 63 curies of 131I during 2-5 September 1963, after an accident at the Hanford PUREX Chemical Separations Plant, in Hanford, Washington. Measurements of activity in air, vegetation, and milk were collected in nine counties around Hanford during the first couple of months after the accident. The activity of 131I in the thyroid glands of two children was measured 47 d after the accident. The model developed by SENES Oak Ridge, Inc., was used to estimate concentrations of 131I in environmental media, thyroid doses for the general population, and the activity of 131I in thyroid glands of the two children. Predicted concentrations of 131I in pasture grass and milk and thyroid doses were compared with similar estimates produced by other modelers. The SENES model was also used to estimate excess lifetime risk of thyroid cancer due to the September 1963 releases of 131I from Hanford. The SENES model was first calibrated and then applied to all locations of interest around Hanford without fitting the model parameters to a given location. Predictions showed that the SENES model reproduces satisfactorily the time-dependent and the time-integrated measured concentrations in vegetation and milk, and provides reliable estimates of 131I activity in thyroids of children. SENES model generated concentrations of 131I closer to observed concentrations, as compared to the predictions produced with other models. The inter-model comparison showed that variation of thyroid doses among all participating models (SENES model included) was a factor of 3 for the general population, but a factor of 10 for the two studied children. As opposed to other models, SENES model allows a complete analysis of uncertainties in every predicted quantity, including estimated thyroid doses and risk of thyroid cancer. The uncertainties in the risk-per-unit-dose and the dose-per-unit-intake coefficients are major contributors to the uncertainty in the estimated lifetime risk and thyroid dose, respectively. The largest contributors to the uncertainty in the estimated concentration in milk are the feed-to-milk transfer factor (F(m)), the dry deposition velocity (V(d)), and the mass interception factor (r/Y)dry for the elemental form of iodine (I2). Exposure to the 1963 PUREX/Hanford accident produced low doses and risks for people living at the studied locations. The upper 97.5th percentile of the excess lifetime risk of thyroid cancer for the most extreme situations is about 10(-4). Measurements in pasture grass and milk at all locations around Hanford indicate a very low transfer of 131I from pasture to cow's milk (e.g., a feed-to-milk transfer coefficient, F(m), for commercial cows of about 0.0022 d L(-1)). These values are towards the low end of F(m) values measured elsewhere and they are low compared to the F(m) values used in other dose reconstruction studies, including the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction.

Understanding discharge data uncertainty and its consequences for analyses of spatial and temporal change in hydrological response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Westerberg, Ida

2017-04-01

Understanding and quantifying how hydrological response behaviour varies across catchments, or how catchments change with time requires reliable discharge data. For reliable estimation of spatial and temporal change, the change in the response behaviour needs to be larger than the uncertainty in the response behaviour estimates that are compared. Understanding how discharge data uncertainty varies between catchments and over time, and how these uncertainties propagate to information derived from the data, is therefore key to drawing the right conclusions in comparative analyses. Uncertainty in discharge data is often highly place-specific and reliable estimation depends on detailed analyses of the rating curve model and stage-discharge measurements used to calculate discharge time series from stage (water level) at the gauging station. This underlying information is often not available when discharge data is provided by monitoring agencies. However, even without detailed analyses, the chance that the discharge data would be uncertain at particular flow ranges can be assessed based on information about the gauging station, the flow regime, and the catchment. This type of information is often available for most catchments even if the rating curve data are not. Such 'soft information' on discharge uncertainty may aid interpretation of results from regional and temporal change analyses. In particular, it can help reduce the risk of wrongly interpreting differences in response behaviour caused by discharge uncertainty as real changes. In this presentation I draw on several previous studies to discuss some of the factors that affect discharge data uncertainty and give examples from catchments worldwide. I aim to 1) illustrate the consequences of discharge data uncertainty on comparisons of different types of hydrological response behaviour across catchments and when analysing temporal change, and 2) give practical advice as to what factors may help identify catchments with potentially large discharge uncertainty.

Fatal accidents following changes in daylight savings time: the American experience.

PubMed

Varughese; Allen

2001-01-01

Objective: This study examines specific hypotheses that both sleep loss and behavioral changes occurring with the time shifts for Daylight Savings Time (DST) significantly effect the number of fatal traffic accidents in the United States of America.Background: It has been reported that there is a significant increase in the number of automobile accidents in the spring shift to DST due to the loss of 1 h of sleep. But the extra hour gained at night with the shift from DST in the fall has been variably reported to be associated with increases and decreases in the number of automobile accidents which may reflect either behavioral anticipation with an extended late night prior to the change or the benefit of extra sleep after the change.Methods: Data from 21 years of United States' fatal automobile accidents were gathered. The mean number of accidents on the days at the time of the shifts (Saturday, Sunday and Monday) was compared to the average of the corresponding mean number of accidents on the matching day of the weeks preceding and following the shift. This was repeated for each DST shift. The number of accidents for a particular shift was also correlated with the year of the accidents.Results: There was a significant increase in accidents for the Monday immediately following the spring shift to DST (t=1.92, P=0.034). There was also a significant increase in number of accidents on the Sunday of the fall shift from DST (P<0.002). No significant changes were observed for the other days. A significant negative correlation with the year was found between the number of accidents on the Saturdays and Sundays but not Mondays.Conclusions: The sleep deprivation on the Monday following shift to DST in the spring results in a small increase in fatal accidents. The behavioral adaptation anticipating the longer day on Sunday of the shift from DST in the fall leads to an increased number of accidents suggesting an increase in late night (early Sunday morning) driving when traffic related fatalities are high possibly related to alcohol consumption and driving while sleepy. Public health educators should probably consider issuing warnings both about the effects of sleep loss in the spring shift and possible behaviors such as staying out later, particularly when consuming alcohol in the fall shift. Sleep clinicians should be aware that health consequences from forced changes in the circadian patterns resulting from DST come not only from physiological adjustments but also from behavioral responses to forced circadian changes.

Survey of Thermal-Fluids Evaluation and Confirmatory Experimental Validation Requirements of Accident Tolerant Cladding Concepts with Focus on Boiling Heat Transfer Characteristics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brown, Nicholas R.; Wysocki, Aaron J.; Terrani, Kurt A.

The U.S. Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE) Advanced Fuels Campaign (AFC) is working closely with the nuclear industry to develop fuel and cladding candidates with potentially enhanced accident tolerance, also known as accident tolerant fuel (ATF). Thermal-fluids characteristics are a vital element of a holistic engineering evaluation of ATF concepts. One vital characteristic related to boiling heat transfer is the critical heat flux (CHF). CHF plays a vital role in determining safety margins during normal operation and also in the progression of potential transient or accident scenarios. This deliverable is a scoping survey of thermal-fluids evaluation andmore » confirmatory experimental validation requirements of accident tolerant cladding concepts with a focus on boiling heat transfer characteristics. The key takeaway messages of this report are: 1. CHF prediction accuracy is important and the correlations may have significant uncertainty. 2. Surface conditions are important factors for CHF, primarily the wettability that is characterized by contact angle. Smaller contact angle indicates greater wettability, which increases the CHF. Surface roughness also impacts wettability. Results in the literature for pool boiling experiments indicate changes in CHF by up to 60% for several ATF cladding candidates. 3. The measured wettability of FeCrAl (i.e., contact angle and roughness) indicates that CHF should be investigated further through pool boiling and flow boiling experiments. 4. Initial measurements of static advancing contact angle and surface roughness indicate that FeCrAl is expected to have a higher CHF than Zircaloy. The measured contact angle of different FeCrAl alloy samples depends on oxide layer thickness and composition. The static advancing contact angle tends to decrease as the oxide layer thickness increases.« less

Toxicology of hydrogen fluoride in relation to major accident hazards.

PubMed

Meldrum, M

1999-10-01

A major industrial accident involving the release of hydrogen fluoride has the potential to cause serious injury and possibly death in the surrounding human population. Given the potential for such serious and large-scale effects, there is a need for scientifically based risk assessments for determining appropriate on-site risk control measures, as well as for informing off-site emergency plans and land-use development decisions. Within Great Britain, the Health and Safety Executive (HSE) has the statutory responsibility for providing land-use planning advice in the vicinity of major accident hazard sites. The advice is based on quantified assessment of the individual risk of exposure to a specified amount of the toxic substance. Among other things this requires a consistent, reliable, and transparent understanding of the major hazard toxicology of the substance concerned. An assessment of the toxicology of hydrogen fluoride in relation to major accident hazards, based on conventional inhalation toxicity studies, was published by HSE in 1993. Recently, studies have been reported in which rats inhaled hydrogen fluoride via a mouthpiece attached to an endotracheal cannula. HSE has explored the use of this "mouth-breathing" rat model as a possible basis for human health risk assessment for hydrogen fluoride in the context of major accident hazards. A number of uncertainties in the use of this animal model have been identified that warrant caution in the use of this model for regulatory purposes. Overall, the results from the "mouth-breathing" rat model did not lead to a change in the HSE assessment of hydrogen fluoride, which remains based on experimental data obtained following "mainstream" toxicological practices. Copyright 1999 Academic Press.

Assessment of potential doses to workers during postulated accident conditions at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hoover, M.D.; Farrell, R.F.; Newton, G.J.

1995-12-01

The recent 1995 WIPP Safety Analysis Report (SAR) Update provided detailed analyses of potential radiation doses to members of the public at the site boundary during postulated accident scenarios at the U.S. Department of Energy`s Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). The SAR Update addressed the complete spectrum of potential accidents associated with handling and emplacing transuranic waste at WIPP, including damage to waste drums from fires, punctures, drops, and other disruptions. The report focused on the adequacy of the multiple layers of safety practice ({open_quotes}defense-in-depth{close_quotes}) at WIPP, which are designed to (1) reduce the likelihood of accidents and (2) limitmore » the consequences of those accidents. The safeguards which contribute to defense-in-depth at WIPP include a substantial array of inherent design features, engineered controls, and administrative procedures. The SAR Update confirmed that the defense-in-depth at WIPP is adequate to assure the protection of the public and environment. As a supplement to the 1995 SAR Update, we have conducted additional analyses to confirm that these controls will also provide adequate protection to workers at the WIPP. The approaches and results of the worker dose assessment are summarized here. In conformance with the guidance of DOE Standard 3009-94, we emphasize that use of these evaluation guidelines is not intended to imply that these numbers constitute acceptable limits for worker exposures under accident conditions. However, in conjunction with the extensive safety assessment in the 1995 SAR Update, these results indicate that the Carlsbad Area Office strategy for the assessment of hazards and accidents assures the protection of workers, members of the public, and the environment.« less

Risk of Motor Vehicle Accidents Related to Sleepiness at the Wheel: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Bioulac, Stéphanie; Franchi, Jean-Arthur Micoulaud; Arnaud, Mickael; Sagaspe, Patricia; Moore, Nicholas; Salvo, Francesco; Philip, Pierre

2017-10-01

Sleepiness at the wheel is widely believed to be a cause of motor vehicle accidents. Nevertheless, a systematic review of studies investigating this relationship has not yet been published. The objective of this study was to quantify the relationship between sleepiness at the wheel and motor vehicle accidents. A systematic review was performed using Medline, Scopus, and ISI Web of Science. The outcome measure of interest was motor vehicle accident defined as involving four- or two-wheeled vehicles in road traffic, professional and nonprofessional drivers, with or without objective consequences. The exposure was sleepiness at the wheel defined as self-reported sleepiness at the wheel. Studies were included if they provided adjusted risk estimates of motor vehicle accidents related to sleepiness at the wheel. Risk estimates and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were extracted and pooled as odds ratios (ORs) using a random-effect model. Heterogeneity was quantified using Q statistics and the I2 index. The potential causes of heterogeneity were investigated using meta-regressions. Ten cross-sectional studies (51,520 participants), six case-control studies (4904 participants), and one cohort study (13,674 participants) were included. Sleepiness at the wheel was associated with an increased risk of motor vehicle accidents (pooled OR 2.51 [95% CI 1.87; 3.39]). A significant heterogeneity was found between the individual risk estimates (Q = 93.21; I2 = 83%). Sleepiness at the wheel increases the risk of motor vehicle accidents and should be considered when investigating fitness to drive. Further studies are required to explore the nature of this relationship. PROSPERO 2015 CRD42015024805. © Sleep Research Society 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Sleep Research Society. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail journals.permissions@oup.com.

The SAS4A/SASSYS-1 Safety Analysis Code System, Version 5

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fanning, T. H.; Brunett, A. J.; Sumner, T.

The SAS4A/SASSYS-1 computer code is developed by Argonne National Laboratory for thermal, hydraulic, and neutronic analysis of power and flow transients in liquidmetal- cooled nuclear reactors (LMRs). SAS4A was developed to analyze severe core disruption accidents with coolant boiling and fuel melting and relocation, initiated by a very low probability coincidence of an accident precursor and failure of one or more safety systems. SASSYS-1, originally developed to address loss-of-decay-heat-removal accidents, has evolved into a tool for margin assessment in design basis accident (DBA) analysis and for consequence assessment in beyond-design-basis accident (BDBA) analysis. SAS4A contains detailed, mechanistic models of transientmore » thermal, hydraulic, neutronic, and mechanical phenomena to describe the response of the reactor core, its coolant, fuel elements, and structural members to accident conditions. The core channel models in SAS4A provide the capability to analyze the initial phase of core disruptive accidents, through coolant heat-up and boiling, fuel element failure, and fuel melting and relocation. Originally developed to analyze oxide fuel clad with stainless steel, the models in SAS4A have been extended and specialized to metallic fuel with advanced alloy cladding. SASSYS-1 provides the capability to perform a detailed thermal/hydraulic simulation of the primary and secondary sodium coolant circuits and the balance-ofplant steam/water circuit. These sodium and steam circuit models include component models for heat exchangers, pumps, valves, turbines, and condensers, and thermal/hydraulic models of pipes and plena. SASSYS-1 also contains a plant protection and control system modeling capability, which provides digital representations of reactor, pump, and valve controllers and their response to input signal changes.« less

Circulating hematopoietic progenitor cells in patients affected by Chornobyl accident.

PubMed

Bilko, N M; Dyagil, I S; Russu, I Z; Bilko, D I

2016-12-01

High radiation sensitivity of stem cells and their ability to accumulate sublethal radiation damage provides the basis for investigation of hematopoietic progenitors using in vivo culture methodology. Unique samples of peripheral blood and bone marrow were derived from the patients affected by Chornobyl accident during liquidation campaign. To investigate functional activity of circulating hematopoietic progenitor cells from peripheral blood and bone marrow of cleanup workers in early and remote periods after the accident at Chornobyl nuclear power plant (CNPP). The assessment of the functional activity of circulating hematopoietic progenitor cells was performed in samples of peripheral blood and bone marrow of 46 cleanup workers, who were treated in the National Scientific Center for Radiation Medicine of the Academy of Medical Sciences of Ukraine alongside with 35 non radiated patients, who served as a control. Work was performed by culturing peripheral blood and bone marrow mononuclear cells in the original gel diffusion capsules, implanted into the peritoneal cavity of CBA mice. It was shown that hematopoietic progenitor cells could be identified in the peripheral blood of liquidators of CNPP accident. At the same time the number of functionally active progenitor cells of the bone marrow was significantly decreased and during the next 10 years after the accident, counts of circulating progenitor cells in the peripheral blood as well as functionally active hematopoietic cells in bone marrow returned to normal levels. It was shown that hematopoietic progenitor cells are detected not only in the bone marrow but also in the peripheral blood of liquidators as a consequence of radiation exposure associated with CNPP accident. This article is a part of a Special Issue entitled "The Chornobyl Nuclear Accident: Thirty Years After".

Uncertainty analysis and robust trajectory linearization control of a flexible air-breathing hypersonic vehicle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pu, Zhiqiang; Tan, Xiangmin; Fan, Guoliang; Yi, Jianqiang

2014-08-01

Flexible air-breathing hypersonic vehicles feature significant uncertainties which pose huge challenges to robust controller designs. In this paper, four major categories of uncertainties are analyzed, that is, uncertainties associated with flexible effects, aerodynamic parameter variations, external environmental disturbances, and control-oriented modeling errors. A uniform nonlinear uncertainty model is explored for the first three uncertainties which lumps all uncertainties together and consequently is beneficial for controller synthesis. The fourth uncertainty is additionally considered in stability analysis. Based on these analyses, the starting point of the control design is to decompose the vehicle dynamics into five functional subsystems. Then a robust trajectory linearization control (TLC) scheme consisting of five robust subsystem controllers is proposed. In each subsystem controller, TLC is combined with the extended state observer (ESO) technique for uncertainty compensation. The stability of the overall closed-loop system with the four aforementioned uncertainties and additional singular perturbations is analyzed. Particularly, the stability of nonlinear ESO is also discussed from a Liénard system perspective. At last, simulations demonstrate the great control performance and the uncertainty rejection ability of the robust scheme.

Uncertainty in natural hazards, modeling and decision support: An introduction to this volume [Chapter 1

Treesearch

Karin Riley; Matthew Thompson; Peter Webley; Kevin D. Hyde

2017-01-01

Modeling has been used to characterize and map natural hazards and hazard susceptibility for decades. Uncertainties are pervasive in natural hazards analysis, including a limited ability to predict where and when extreme events will occur, with what consequences, and driven by what contributing factors. Modeling efforts are challenged by the intrinsic...

The Essential Uncertainty of Thinking: Education and Subject in John Dewey

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

D'Agnese, Vasco

2017-01-01

In this paper, I analyse the Deweyan account of thinking and subject and discuss the educational consequences that follow from such an account. I argue that despite the grouping of thinking and reflective thought that has largely appeared in the interpretation of Deweyan work, Dewey discloses an inescapable uncertainty at the core of human…

Propagation of nuclear data uncertainties for fusion power measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sjöstrand, Henrik; Conroy, Sean; Helgesson, Petter; Hernandez, Solis Augusto; Koning, Arjan; Pomp, Stephan; Rochman, Dimitri

2017-09-01

Neutron measurements using neutron activation systems are an essential part of the diagnostic system at large fusion machines such as JET and ITER. Nuclear data is used to infer the neutron yield. Consequently, high-quality nuclear data is essential for the proper determination of the neutron yield and fusion power. However, uncertainties due to nuclear data are not fully taken into account in uncertainty analysis for neutron yield calibrations using activation foils. This paper investigates the neutron yield uncertainty due to nuclear data using the so-called Total Monte Carlo Method. The work is performed using a detailed MCNP model of the JET fusion machine; the uncertainties due to the cross-sections and angular distributions in JET structural materials, as well as the activation cross-sections in the activation foils, are analysed. It is found that a significant contribution to the neutron yield uncertainty can come from uncertainties in the nuclear data.

A risk-based coverage model for video surveillance camera control optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Hongzhou; Du, Zhiguo; Zhao, Xingtao; Li, Peiyue; Li, Dehua

2015-12-01

Visual surveillance system for law enforcement or police case investigation is different from traditional application, for it is designed to monitor pedestrians, vehicles or potential accidents. Visual surveillance risk is defined as uncertainty of visual information of targets and events monitored in present work and risk entropy is introduced to modeling the requirement of police surveillance task on quality and quantity of vide information. the prosed coverage model is applied to calculate the preset FoV position of PTZ camera.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of telemedical devices for pre-clinical traffic accident emergency rescue in Germany.

PubMed

Auerbach, H; Schreyögg, J; Busse, R

2006-01-01

The purpose of this study is to assess the cost-effectiveness (net costs per life year gained) of telemedical devices for pre-clinical traffic accident emergency rescue in Germany. Two equipment versions of a telemedical device are compared from a societal perspective with the baseline in Germany, i.e. the non-application of telemedicine in emergency rescues. The analysis is based on retrospective statistical data covering a period of 10 years with discounted costs not adjusted for inflation. Due to the uncertainty of data, certain assumptions and estimates were necessary. The outcome is measured in terms of "life years gained" by reducing therapy-free intervals and improvements in first-aid provided by laypersons. The introduction of the basic equipment version, "Automatic Accident Alert", is associated with net costs per life year gained of euro 247,977 (at baseline assumptions). The full equipment version of the telemedical device would lead to estimated net costs of euro 239,524 per life year gained. Multi-way sensitivity-analysis with best and worst case scenarios suggests that decreasing system costs would disproportionately reduce total costs, and that rapid market penetration would largely increase the system's benefit, while simultaneously reducing costs. The net costs per life year gained in the application of the two versions of the telemedical device for pre-clinical emergency rescue of traffic accidents are estimated as quite high. However, the implementation of the device as part of a larger European co-ordinated initiative is more realistic.

Nuclear risk analysis of the Ulysses mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bartram, Bart W.; Vaughan, Frank R.; Englehart, Richard W.

An account is given of the method used to quantify the risks accruing to the use of a radioisotope thermoelectric generator fueled by Pu-238 dioxide aboard the Space Shuttle-launched Ulysses mission. After using a Monte Carlo technique to develop probability distributions for the radiological consequences of a range of accident scenarios throughout the mission, factors affecting those consequences are identified in conjunction with their probability distributions. The functional relationship among all the factors is then established, and probability distributions for all factor effects are combined by means of a Monte Carlo technique.

Design of a smart, survivable sensor system for rapid transit applications

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hogan, J.R.; Mitchell, J.L.

1994-08-01

An application of smart sensor technology developed by Sandia National Laboratories has been proposed for real-time monitoring and tracking in the transportation industry. Its primary purpose is to reduce operating costs by improving preventative maintenance scheduling, reducing the number, severity and consequence of accidents and by reducing losses due to theft. The concept uses a strap-on sensor package, the Green Box, that can be attached to any vehicle. The Green Box is designed as a valued-added component, integrated into existing transportation industry systems and standards. The device, designed to provide advanced warning of component failures, would be capable of survivingmore » most typical accidents. In an accident, the system would send a distress signal notifying authorities of the location and condition of the cargo; permitting them to respond in the most effective manner. In addition, the Green Box is adaptable for use as a notification/locator system to enhance the security of operators and passengers for various modes of public transportation. The modular architecture which facilitates system integration in a number of different applications is discussed. A test plan for evaluating performance in both normal and abnormal operating and accident conditions is described.« less