Development and Validation of Accident Models for FeCrAl Cladding

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gamble, Kyle Allan Lawrence; Hales, Jason Dean

2016-08-01

The purpose of this milestone report is to present the work completed in regards to material model development for FeCrAl cladding and highlight the results of applying these models to Loss of Coolant Accidents (LOCA) and Station Blackouts (SBO). With the limited experimental data available (essentially only the data used to create the models) true validation is not possible. In the absence of another alternative, qualitative comparisons during postulated accident scenarios between FeCrAl and Zircaloy-4 cladded rods have been completed demonstrating the superior performance of FeCrAl.

Relationship between accident severity and full-scale crash test. Volume II, Appendices

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1984-08-01

Available accident files are used to generate a 4l2-accident data base of guardrail impacts. This base is analyzed to develop a statistical model for predicting accident severity index (ASI) as a function of vehicle type or weight, impact speed, and ...

Archetypes for Organisational Safety

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marais, Karen; Leveson, Nancy G.

2003-01-01

We propose a framework using system dynamics to model the dynamic behavior of organizations in accident analysis. Most current accident analysis techniques are event-based and do not adequately capture the dynamic complexity and non-linear interactions that characterize accidents in complex systems. In this paper we propose a set of system safety archetypes that model common safety culture flaws in organizations, i.e., the dynamic behaviour of organizations that often leads to accidents. As accident analysis and investigation tools, the archetypes can be used to develop dynamic models that describe the systemic and organizational factors contributing to the accident. The archetypes help clarify why safety-related decisions do not always result in the desired behavior, and how independent decisions in different parts of the organization can combine to impact safety.

MELCOR simulations of the severe accident at Fukushima Daiichi Unit 3

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cardoni, Jeffrey; Gauntt, Randall; Kalinich, Donald

In response to the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station in Japan, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission and U.S. Department of Energy agreed to jointly sponsor an accident reconstruction study as a means of assessing the severe accident modeling capability of the MELCOR code. Objectives of the project included reconstruction of the accident progressions using computer models and accident data, and validation of the MELCOR code and the Fukushima models against plant data. A MELCOR 2.1 model of the Fukushima Daiichi Unit 3 reactor is developed using plant-specific information and accident-specific boundary conditions, which involve considerable uncertainty duemore » to the inherent nature of severe accidents. Publicly available thermal-hydraulic data and radioactivity release estimates have evolved significantly since the accidents. Such data are expected to continually change as the reactors are decommissioned and more measurements are performed. As a result, the MELCOR simulations in this work primarily use boundary conditions that are based on available plant data as of May 2012.« less

MELCOR simulations of the severe accident at Fukushima Daiichi Unit 3

DOE PAGES

Cardoni, Jeffrey; Gauntt, Randall; Kalinich, Donald; ...

2014-05-01

In response to the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station in Japan, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission and U.S. Department of Energy agreed to jointly sponsor an accident reconstruction study as a means of assessing the severe accident modeling capability of the MELCOR code. Objectives of the project included reconstruction of the accident progressions using computer models and accident data, and validation of the MELCOR code and the Fukushima models against plant data. A MELCOR 2.1 model of the Fukushima Daiichi Unit 3 reactor is developed using plant-specific information and accident-specific boundary conditions, which involve considerable uncertainty duemore » to the inherent nature of severe accidents. Publicly available thermal-hydraulic data and radioactivity release estimates have evolved significantly since the accidents. Such data are expected to continually change as the reactors are decommissioned and more measurements are performed. As a result, the MELCOR simulations in this work primarily use boundary conditions that are based on available plant data as of May 2012.« less

Relationship between accident severity and full-scale crash test. Volume I, Technical research effort

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1984-08-01

Available accident files are used to generate a 4l2-accident data base of guardrail impacts. This base is analyzed to develop a statistical model for predicting accident severity index (ASI) as a function of vehicle type or weight, impact speed, and ...

Investigation of shipping accident injury severity and mortality.

PubMed

Weng, Jinxian; Yang, Dong

2015-03-01

Shipping movements are operated in a complex and high-risk environment. Fatal shipping accidents are the nightmares of seafarers. With ten years' worldwide ship accident data, this study develops a binary logistic regression model and a zero-truncated binomial regression model to predict the probability of fatal shipping accidents and corresponding mortalities. The model results show that both the probability of fatal accidents and mortalities are greater for collision, fire/explosion, contact, grounding, sinking accidents occurred in adverse weather conditions and darkness conditions. Sinking has the largest effects on the increment of fatal accident probability and mortalities. The results also show that the bigger number of mortalities is associated with shipping accidents occurred far away from the coastal area/harbor/port. In addition, cruise ships are found to have more mortalities than non-cruise ships. The results of this study are beneficial for policy-makers in proposing efficient strategies to prevent fatal shipping accidents. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Analysis of the Contribution of Human Factors to the In-Flight Loss of Control Accidents

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ancel, Ersin; Shih, Ann T.

2012-01-01

In-flight loss of control (LOC) is currently the leading cause of fatal accidents based on various commercial aircraft accident statistics. As the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) emerges, new contributing factors leading to LOC are anticipated. The NASA Aviation Safety Program (AvSP), along with other aviation agencies and communities are actively developing safety products to mitigate the LOC risk. This paper discusses the approach used to construct a generic integrated LOC accident framework (LOCAF) model based on a detailed review of LOC accidents over the past two decades. The LOCAF model is comprised of causal factors from the domain of human factors, aircraft system component failures, and atmospheric environment. The multiple interdependent causal factors are expressed in an Object-Oriented Bayesian belief network. In addition to predicting the likelihood of LOC accident occurrence, the system-level integrated LOCAF model is able to evaluate the impact of new safety technology products developed in AvSP. This provides valuable information to decision makers in strategizing NASA's aviation safety technology portfolio. The focus of this paper is on the analysis of human causal factors in the model, including the contributions from flight crew and maintenance workers. The Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS) taxonomy was used to develop human related causal factors. The preliminary results from the baseline LOCAF model are also presented.

Overview of lower length scale model development for accident tolerant fuels regarding U3Si2 fuel and FeCrAl cladding

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Yongfeng

2016-09-01

U3Si2 and FeCrAl have been proposed as fuel and cladding concepts, respectively, for accident tolerance fuels with higher tolerance to accident scenarios compared to UO2. However, a lot of key physics and material properties regarding their in-pile performance are yet to be explored. To accelerate the understanding and reduce the cost of experimental studies, multiscale modeling and simulation are used to develop physics-based materials models to assist engineering scale fuel performance modeling. In this report, the lower-length-scale efforts in method and material model development supported by the Accident Tolerance Fuel (ATF) high-impact-problem (HIP) under the NEAMS program are summarized. Significantmore » progresses have been made regarding interatomic potential, phase field models for phase decomposition and gas bubble formation, and thermal conductivity for U3Si2 fuel, and precipitation in FeCrAl cladding. The accomplishments are very useful by providing atomistic and mesoscale tools, improving the current understanding, and delivering engineering scale models for these two ATF concepts.« less

Major Accidents (Gray Swans) Likelihood Modeling Using Accident Precursors and Approximate Reasoning.

PubMed

Khakzad, Nima; Khan, Faisal; Amyotte, Paul

2015-07-01

Compared to the remarkable progress in risk analysis of normal accidents, the risk analysis of major accidents has not been so well-established, partly due to the complexity of such accidents and partly due to low probabilities involved. The issue of low probabilities normally arises from the scarcity of major accidents' relevant data since such accidents are few and far between. In this work, knowing that major accidents are frequently preceded by accident precursors, a novel precursor-based methodology has been developed for likelihood modeling of major accidents in critical infrastructures based on a unique combination of accident precursor data, information theory, and approximate reasoning. For this purpose, we have introduced an innovative application of information analysis to identify the most informative near accident of a major accident. The observed data of the near accident were then used to establish predictive scenarios to foresee the occurrence of the major accident. We verified the methodology using offshore blowouts in the Gulf of Mexico, and then demonstrated its application to dam breaches in the United Sates. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dobromir Panayotov; Andrew Grief; Brad J. Merrill

'Fusion for Energy' (F4E) develops designs and implements the European Test Blanket Systems (TBS) in ITER - Helium-Cooled Lithium-Lead (HCLL) and Helium-Cooled Pebble-Bed (HCPB). Safety demonstration is an essential element for the integration of TBS in ITER and accident analyses are one of its critical segments. A systematic approach to the accident analyses had been acquired under the F4E contract on TBS safety analyses. F4E technical requirements and AMEC and INL efforts resulted in the development of a comprehensive methodology for fusion breeding blanket accident analyses. It addresses the specificity of the breeding blankets design, materials and phenomena and atmore » the same time is consistent with the one already applied to ITER accident analyses. Methodology consists of several phases. At first the reference scenarios are selected on the base of FMEA studies. In the second place elaboration of the accident analyses specifications we use phenomena identification and ranking tables to identify the requirements to be met by the code(s) and TBS models. Thus the limitations of the codes are identified and possible solutions to be built into the models are proposed. These include among others the loose coupling of different codes or code versions in order to simulate multi-fluid flows and phenomena. The code selection and issue of the accident analyses specifications conclude this second step. Furthermore the breeding blanket and ancillary systems models are built on. In this work challenges met and solutions used in the development of both MELCOR and RELAP5 codes models of HCLL and HCPB TBSs will be shared. To continue the developed models are qualified by comparison with finite elements analyses, by code to code comparison and sensitivity studies. Finally, the qualified models are used for the execution of the accident analyses of specific scenario. When possible the methodology phases will be illustrated in the paper by limited number of tables and figures. Description of each phase and its results in detail as well the methodology applications to EU HCLL and HCPB TBSs will be published in separate papers. The developed methodology is applicable to accident analyses of other TBSs to be tested in ITER and as well to DEMO breeding blankets.« less

Data mining of tree-based models to analyze freeway accident frequency.

PubMed

Chang, Li-Yen; Chen, Wen-Chieh

2005-01-01

Statistical models, such as Poisson or negative binomial regression models, have been employed to analyze vehicle accident frequency for many years. However, these models have their own model assumptions and pre-defined underlying relationship between dependent and independent variables. If these assumptions are violated, the model could lead to erroneous estimation of accident likelihood. Classification and Regression Tree (CART), one of the most widely applied data mining techniques, has been commonly employed in business administration, industry, and engineering. CART does not require any pre-defined underlying relationship between target (dependent) variable and predictors (independent variables) and has been shown to be a powerful tool, particularly for dealing with prediction and classification problems. This study collected the 2001-2002 accident data of National Freeway 1 in Taiwan. A CART model and a negative binomial regression model were developed to establish the empirical relationship between traffic accidents and highway geometric variables, traffic characteristics, and environmental factors. The CART findings indicated that the average daily traffic volume and precipitation variables were the key determinants for freeway accident frequencies. By comparing the prediction performance between the CART and the negative binomial regression models, this study demonstrates that CART is a good alternative method for analyzing freeway accident frequencies. By comparing the prediction performance between the CART and the negative binomial regression models, this study demonstrates that CART is a good alternative method for analyzing freeway accident frequencies.

WHEN MODEL MEETS REALITY – A REVIEW OF SPAR LEVEL 2 MODEL AGAINST FUKUSHIMA ACCIDENT

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhegang Ma

The Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) models are a set of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) models used by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to evaluate the risk of operations at U.S. nuclear power plants and provide inputs to risk informed regulatory process. A small number of SPAR Level 2 models have been developed mostly for feasibility study purpose. They extend the Level 1 models to include containment systems, group plant damage states, and model containment phenomenology and accident progression in containment event trees. A severe earthquake and tsunami hit the eastern coast of Japan in March 2011 and caused significantmore » damages on the reactors in Fukushima Daiichi site. Station blackout (SBO), core damage, containment damage, hydrogen explosion, and intensive radioactivity release, which have been previous analyzed and assumed as postulated accident progression in PRA models, now occurred with various degrees in the multi-units Fukushima Daiichi site. This paper reviews and compares a typical BWR SPAR Level 2 model with the “real” accident progressions and sequences occurred in Fukushima Daiichi Units 1, 2, and 3. It shows that the SPAR Level 2 model is a robust PRA model that could very reasonably describe the accident progression for a real and complicated nuclear accident in the world. On the other hand, the comparison shows that the SPAR model could be enhanced by incorporating some accident characteristics for better representation of severe accident progression.« less

Active numerical model of human body for reconstruction of falls from height.

PubMed

Milanowicz, Marcin; Kędzior, Krzysztof

2017-01-01

Falls from height constitute the largest group of incidents out of approximately 90,000 occupational accidents occurring each year in Poland. Reconstruction of the exact course of a fall from height is generally difficult due to lack of sufficient information from the accident scene. This usually results in several contradictory versions of an incident and impedes, for example, determination of the liability in a judicial process. In similar situations, in many areas of human activity, researchers apply numerical simulation. They use it to model physical phenomena to reconstruct their real course over time; e.g. numerical human body models are frequently used for investigation and reconstruction of road accidents. However, they are validated in terms of specific road traffic accidents and are considerably limited when applied to the reconstruction of other types of accidents. The objective of the study was to develop an active numerical human body model to be used for reconstruction of accidents associated with falling from height. Development of the model involved extension and adaptation of the existing Pedestrian human body model (available in the MADYMO package database) for the purposes of reconstruction of falls from height by taking into account the human reaction to the loss of balance. The model was developed by using the results of experimental tests of the initial phase of the fall from height. The active numerical human body model covering 28 sets of initial conditions related to various human reactions to the loss of balance was developed. The application of the model was illustrated by using it to reconstruct a real fall from height. From among the 28 sets of initial conditions, those whose application made it possible to reconstruct the most probable version of the incident was selected. The selection was based on comparison of the results of the reconstruction with information contained in the accident report. Results in the form of estimated injuries overlap with the real injuries sustained by the casualty. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Final safety analysis report for the Galileo Mission: Volume 2, Book 2: Accident model document: Appendices

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1988-12-15

This section of the Accident Model Document (AMD) presents the appendices which describe the various analyses that have been conducted for use in the Galileo Final Safety Analysis Report II, Volume II. Included in these appendices are the approaches, techniques, conditions and assumptions used in the development of the analytical models plus the detailed results of the analyses. Also included in these appendices are summaries of the accidents and their associated probabilities and environment models taken from the Shuttle Data Book (NSTS-08116), plus summaries of the several segments of the recent GPHS safety test program. The information presented in thesemore » appendices is used in Section 3.0 of the AMD to develop the Failure/Abort Sequence Trees (FASTs) and to determine the fuel releases (source terms) resulting from the potential Space Shuttle/IUS accidents throughout the missions.« less

Curve Estimation of Number of People Killed in Traffic Accidents in Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berkhan Akalin, Kadir; Karacasu, Murat; Altin, Arzu Yavuz; Ergül, Bariş

2016-10-01

One or more than one vehicle in motion on the highway involving death, injury and loss events which have resulted are called accidents. As a result of increasing population and traffic density, traffic accidents continue to increase and this leads to both human losses and harm to the economy. In addition, also leads to social problems. As a result of increasing population and traffic density, traffic accidents continue to increase and this leads to both human losses and harm to the economy. In addition to this, it also leads to social problems. As a result of traffic accidents, millions of people die year by year. A great majority of these accidents occur in developing countries. One of the most important tasks of transportation engineers is to reduce traffic accidents by creating a specific system. For that reason, statistical information about traffic accidents which occur in the past years should be organized by versed people. Factors affecting the traffic accidents are analyzed in various ways. In this study, modelling the number of people killed in traffic accidents in Turkey is determined. The dead people were modelled using curve fitting method with the number of people killed in traffic accidents in Turkey dataset between 1990 and 2014. It was also predicted the number of dead people by using various models for the future. It is decided that linear model is suitable for the estimates.

Longitudinal relationship between economic development and occupational accidents in China.

PubMed

Song, Li; He, Xueqiu; Li, Chengwu

2011-01-01

The relativity between economic development and occupational accidents is a debated topic. Compared with the development courses of both economic development and occupational accidents in China during 1953-2008, this paper used statistic methods such as Granger causality test, cointegration test and impulse response function based on the vector autoregression model to investigate the relativity between economic development and occupational accidents in China from 1953 to 2008. Owing to fluctuation and growth scale characteristics of economic development, two dimensions including economic cycle and economic scale were divided. Results showed that there was no relationship between occupational accidents and economic scale during 1953-1978. Fatality rate per 10(5) workers was a conductive variable to gross domestic product per capita during 1979-2008. And economic cycle was an indicator to occupational accidents during 1979-2008. Variation of economic speed had important influence on occupational accidents in short term. Thus it is necessary to adjust Chinese occupational safety policy according to tempo variation of economic growth. Crown Copyright © 2010. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The social accident: a theoretical model and a research agenda for studying the influence of social and cultural characteristics on motor vehicle accidents.

PubMed

Factor, Roni; Mahalel, David; Yair, Gad

2007-09-01

The paper develops a sociological model to explain collisions between two drivers or more. The "Social Accident" model presented here integrates empirical findings from prior studies and extant sociological theories. Sociological theory posits that social groups have unique cultural characteristics, which include a distinctive world view and ways of operating that influence its members. These cultural characteristics may cause drivers in different groups to interpret a given situation differently; therefore, they will make conflicting decisions that may possibly lead to road accidents. The proposed model may contribute to an understanding of the social mechanism related to interactions and communication among drivers by presenting new directions for understanding accidents and collisions. The paper concludes with suggestions for future research that will employ the model to assess its predictive and practical utility.

Modeling secondary accidents identified by traffic shock waves.

PubMed

Junhua, Wang; Boya, Liu; Lanfang, Zhang; Ragland, David R

2016-02-01

The high potential for occurrence and the negative consequences of secondary accidents make them an issue of great concern affecting freeway safety. Using accident records from a three-year period together with California interstate freeway loop data, a dynamic method for more accurate classification based on the traffic shock wave detecting method was used to identify secondary accidents. Spatio-temporal gaps between the primary and secondary accident were proven be fit via a mixture of Weibull and normal distribution. A logistic regression model was developed to investigate major factors contributing to secondary accident occurrence. Traffic shock wave speed and volume at the occurrence of a primary accident were explicitly considered in the model, as a secondary accident is defined as an accident that occurs within the spatio-temporal impact scope of the primary accident. Results show that the shock waves originating in the wake of a primary accident have a more significant impact on the likelihood of a secondary accident occurrence than the effects of traffic volume. Primary accidents with long durations can significantly increase the possibility of secondary accidents. Unsafe speed and weather are other factors contributing to secondary crash occurrence. It is strongly suggested that when police or rescue personnel arrive at the scene of an accident, they should not suddenly block, decrease, or unblock the traffic flow, but instead endeavor to control traffic in a smooth and controlled manner. Also it is important to reduce accident processing time to reduce the risk of secondary accident. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An Evidential Reasoning-Based CREAM to Human Reliability Analysis in Maritime Accident Process.

PubMed

Wu, Bing; Yan, Xinping; Wang, Yang; Soares, C Guedes

2017-10-01

This article proposes a modified cognitive reliability and error analysis method (CREAM) for estimating the human error probability in the maritime accident process on the basis of an evidential reasoning approach. This modified CREAM is developed to precisely quantify the linguistic variables of the common performance conditions and to overcome the problem of ignoring the uncertainty caused by incomplete information in the existing CREAM models. Moreover, this article views maritime accident development from the sequential perspective, where a scenario- and barrier-based framework is proposed to describe the maritime accident process. This evidential reasoning-based CREAM approach together with the proposed accident development framework are applied to human reliability analysis of a ship capsizing accident. It will facilitate subjective human reliability analysis in different engineering systems where uncertainty exists in practice. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Relationship between road traffic accidents and conflicts recorded by drive recorders.

PubMed

Lu, Guangquan; Cheng, Bo; Kuzumaki, Seigo; Mei, Bingsong

2011-08-01

Road traffic conflicts can be used to estimate the probability of accident occurrence, assess road safety, or evaluate road safety programs if the relationship between road traffic accidents and conflicts is known. To this end, we propose a model for the relationship between road traffic accidents and conflicts recorded by drive recorders (DRs). DRs were installed in 50 cars in Beijing to collect records of traffic conflicts. Data containing 1366 conflicts were collected in 193 days. The hourly distributions of conflicts and accidents were used to model the relationship between accidents and conflicts. To eliminate time series and base number effects, we defined and used 2 parameters: average annual number of accidents per 10,000 vehicles per hour and average number of conflicts per 10,000 vehicles per hour. A model was developed to describe the relationship between the two parameters. If A(i) = average annual number of accidents per 10,000 vehicles per hour at hour i, and E(i) = average number of conflicts per 10,000 vehicles per hour at hour i, the relationship can be expressed as [Formula in text] (α>0, β>0). The average number of traffic accidents increases as the number of conflicts rises, but the rate of increase decelerates as the number of conflicts increases further. The proposed model can describe the relationship between road traffic accidents and conflicts in a simple manner. According to our analysis, the model fits the present data.

Investigating accident causation through information network modelling.

PubMed

Griffin, T G C; Young, M S; Stanton, N A

2010-02-01

Management of risk in complex domains such as aviation relies heavily on post-event investigations, requiring complex approaches to fully understand the integration of multi-causal, multi-agent and multi-linear accident sequences. The Event Analysis of Systemic Teamwork methodology (EAST; Stanton et al. 2008) offers such an approach based on network models. In this paper, we apply EAST to a well-known aviation accident case study, highlighting communication between agents as a central theme and investigating the potential for finding agents who were key to the accident. Ultimately, this work aims to develop a new model based on distributed situation awareness (DSA) to demonstrate that the risk inherent in a complex system is dependent on the information flowing within it. By identifying key agents and information elements, we can propose proactive design strategies to optimize the flow of information and help work towards avoiding aviation accidents. Statement of Relevance: This paper introduces a novel application of an holistic methodology for understanding aviation accidents. Furthermore, it introduces an ongoing project developing a nonlinear and prospective method that centralises distributed situation awareness and communication as themes. The relevance of findings are discussed in the context of current ergonomic and aviation issues of design, training and human-system interaction.

Development of fission-products transport model in severe-accident scenarios for Scdap/Relap5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Honaiser, Eduardo Henrique Rangel

The understanding and estimation of the release of fission products during a severe accident became one of the priorities of the nuclear community after 1980, with the events of the Three-mile Island unit 2 (TMI-2), in 1979, and Chernobyl accidents, in 1986. Since this time, theoretical developments and experiments have shown that the primary circuit systems of light water reactors (LWR) have the potential to attenuate the release of fission products, a fact that had been neglected before. An advanced tool, compatible with nuclear thermal-hydraulics integral codes, is developed to predict the retention and physical evolution of the fission products in the primary circuit of LWRs, without considering the chemistry effects. The tool embodies the state-of-the-art models for the involved phenomena as well as develops new models. The capabilities acquired after the implementation of this tool in the Scdap/Relap5 code can be used to increase the accuracy of probability safety assessment (PSA) level 2, enhance the reactor accident management procedures and design new emergency safety features.

Prediction of road accidents: A Bayesian hierarchical approach.

PubMed

Deublein, Markus; Schubert, Matthias; Adey, Bryan T; Köhler, Jochen; Faber, Michael H

2013-03-01

In this paper a novel methodology for the prediction of the occurrence of road accidents is presented. The methodology utilizes a combination of three statistical methods: (1) gamma-updating of the occurrence rates of injury accidents and injured road users, (2) hierarchical multivariate Poisson-lognormal regression analysis taking into account correlations amongst multiple dependent model response variables and effects of discrete accident count data e.g. over-dispersion, and (3) Bayesian inference algorithms, which are applied by means of data mining techniques supported by Bayesian Probabilistic Networks in order to represent non-linearity between risk indicating and model response variables, as well as different types of uncertainties which might be present in the development of the specific models. Prior Bayesian Probabilistic Networks are first established by means of multivariate regression analysis of the observed frequencies of the model response variables, e.g. the occurrence of an accident, and observed values of the risk indicating variables, e.g. degree of road curvature. Subsequently, parameter learning is done using updating algorithms, to determine the posterior predictive probability distributions of the model response variables, conditional on the values of the risk indicating variables. The methodology is illustrated through a case study using data of the Austrian rural motorway network. In the case study, on randomly selected road segments the methodology is used to produce a model to predict the expected number of accidents in which an injury has occurred and the expected number of light, severe and fatally injured road users. Additionally, the methodology is used for geo-referenced identification of road sections with increased occurrence probabilities of injury accident events on a road link between two Austrian cities. It is shown that the proposed methodology can be used to develop models to estimate the occurrence of road accidents for any road network provided that the required data are available. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Multi-phase model development to assess RCIC system capabilities under severe accident conditions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kirkland, Karen Vierow; Ross, Kyle; Beeny, Bradley

The Reactor Core Isolation Cooling (RCIC) System is a safety-related system that provides makeup water for core cooling of some Boiling Water Reactors (BWRs) with a Mark I containment. The RCIC System consists of a steam-driven Terry turbine that powers a centrifugal, multi-stage pump for providing water to the reactor pressure vessel. The Fukushima Dai-ichi accidents demonstrated that the RCIC System can play an important role under accident conditions in removing core decay heat. The unexpectedly sustained, good performance of the RCIC System in the Fukushima reactor demonstrates, firstly, that its capabilities are not well understood, and secondly, that themore » system has high potential for extended core cooling in accident scenarios. Better understanding and analysis tools would allow for more options to cope with a severe accident situation and to reduce the consequences. The objectives of this project were to develop physics-based models of the RCIC System, incorporate them into a multi-phase code and validate the models. This Final Technical Report details the progress throughout the project duration and the accomplishments.« less

Predictions of structural integrity of steam generator tubes under normal operating, accident, an severe accident conditions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Majumdar, S.

1997-02-01

Available models for predicting failure of flawed and unflawed steam generator tubes under normal operating, accident, and severe accident conditions are reviewed. Tests conducted in the past, though limited, tended to show that the earlier flow-stress model for part-through-wall axial cracks overestimated the damaging influence of deep cracks. This observation was confirmed by further tests at high temperatures, as well as by finite-element analysis. A modified correlation for deep cracks can correct this shortcoming of the model. Recent tests have shown that lateral restraint can significantly increase the failure pressure of tubes with unsymmetrical circumferential cracks. This observation was confirmedmore » by finite-element analysis. The rate-independent flow stress models that are successful at low temperatures cannot predict the rate-sensitive failure behavior of steam generator tubes at high temperatures. Therefore, a creep rupture model for predicting failure was developed and validated by tests under various temperature and pressure loadings that can occur during postulated severe accidents.« less

The influence of the infrastructure characteristics in urban road accidents occurrence.

PubMed

Vieira Gomes, Sandra

2013-11-01

This paper summarizes the result of a study regarding the creation of tools that can be used in intervention methods in the planning and management of urban road networks in Portugal. The first tool relates the creation of a geocoded database of road accidents occurred in Lisbon between 2004 and 2007, which allowed the definition of digital maps, with the possibility of a wide range of consultations and crossing of information. The second tool concerns the development of models to estimate the frequency of accidents on urban networks, according to different desegregations: road element (intersections and segments); type of accident (accidents with and without pedestrians); and inclusion of explanatory variables related to the road environment. Several methods were used to assess the goodness of fit of the developed models, allowing more robust conclusions. This work aims to contribute to the scientific knowledge of accidents phenomenon in Portugal, with detailed and accurate information on the factors affecting its occurrence. This allows to explicitly include safety aspects in planning and road management tasks. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mobile phone use during driving: Effects on speed and effectiveness of driver compensatory behaviour.

PubMed

Choudhary, Pushpa; Velaga, Nagendra R

2017-09-01

This study analysed and modelled the effects of conversation and texting (each with two difficulty levels) on driving performance of Indian drivers in terms of their mean speed and accident avoiding abilities; and further explored the relationship between speed reduction strategy of the drivers and their corresponding accident frequency. 100 drivers of three different age groups (young, mid-age and old-age) participated in the simulator study. Two sudden events of Indian context: unexpected crossing of pedestrians and joining of parked vehicles from road side, were simulated for estimating the accident probabilities. Generalized linear mixed models approach was used for developing linear regression models for mean speed and binary logistic regression models for accident probability. The results of the models showed that the drivers significantly compensated the increased workload by reducing their mean speed by 2.62m/s and 5.29m/s in the presence of conversation and texting tasks respectively. The logistic models for accident probabilities showed that the accident probabilities increased by 3 and 4 times respectively when the drivers were conversing or texting on a phone during driving. Further, the relationship between the speed reduction patterns and their corresponding accident frequencies showed that all the drivers compensated differently; but, among all the drivers, only few drivers, who compensated by reducing the speed by 30% or more, were able to fully offset the increased accident risk associated with the phone use. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Application of the Life Change Unit model for the prevention of accident proneness among small to medium sized industries in Korea.

PubMed

Kang, Youngsig; Hahm, Hyojoon; Yang, Sunghwan; Kim, Taegu

2008-10-01

Behavior models have provided an accident proneness concept based on life change unit (LCU) factors. This paper describes the development of a Korean Life Change Unit (KLCU) model for workers and managers in fatal accident areas, as well as an evaluation of its application. Results suggest that death of parents is the highest stress-giving factor for employees of small and medium sized industries a rational finding the viewpoint of Korean culture. The next stress-giving factors were shown to be the death of a spouse or loved ones, followed by the death of close family members, the death of close friends, changes of family members' health, unemployment, and jail terms. It turned out that these factors have a serious effect on industrial accidents and work-related diseases. The death of parents and close friends are ranked higher in the KLCU model than that of Western society. Crucial information for industrial accident prevention in real fields will be provided and the provided information will be useful for safety management programs related to accident prevention.

Scenario analysis of freight vehicle accident risks in Taiwan.

PubMed

Tsai, Ming-Chih; Su, Chien-Chih

2004-07-01

This study develops a quantitative risk model by utilizing Generalized Linear Interactive Model (GLIM) to analyze the major freight vehicle accidents in Taiwan. Eight scenarios are established by interacting three categorical variables of driver ages, vehicle types and road types, each of which contains two levels. The database that consists of 2043 major accidents occurring between 1994 and 1998 in Taiwan is utilized to fit and calibrate the model parameters. The empirical results indicate that accident rates of freight vehicles in Taiwan were high in the scenarios involving trucks and non-freeway systems, while; accident consequences were severe in the scenarios involving mature drivers or non-freeway systems. Empirical evidences also show that there is no significant relationship between accident rates and accident consequences. This is to stress that safety studies that describe risk merely as accident rates rather than the combination of accident rates and consequences by definition might lead to biased risk perceptions. Finally, the study recommends using number of vehicle as an alternative of traffic exposure in commercial vehicle risk analysis. The merits of this would be that it is simple and thus reliable; meanwhile, the resulted risk that is termed as fatalities per vehicle could provide clear and direct policy implications for insurance practices and safety regulations.

Developing an ontological explosion knowledge base for business continuity planning purposes.

PubMed

Mohammadfam, Iraj; Kalatpour, Omid; Golmohammadi, Rostam; Khotanlou, Hasan

2013-01-01

Industrial accidents are among the most known challenges to business continuity. Many organisations have lost their reputation following devastating accidents. To manage the risks of such accidents, it is necessary to accumulate sufficient knowledge regarding their roots, causes and preventive techniques. The required knowledge might be obtained through various approaches, including databases. Unfortunately, many databases are hampered by (among other things) static data presentations, a lack of semantic features, and the inability to present accident knowledge as discrete domains. This paper proposes the use of Protégé software to develop a knowledge base for the domain of explosion accidents. Such a structure has a higher capability to improve information retrieval compared with common accident databases. To accomplish this goal, a knowledge management process model was followed. The ontological explosion knowledge base (EKB) was built for further applications, including process accident knowledge retrieval and risk management. The paper will show how the EKB has a semantic feature that enables users to overcome some of the search constraints of existing accident databases.

Retrospection of Chernobyl nuclear accident for decision analysis concerning remedial actions in Ukraine

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Georgievskiy, Vladimir

2007-07-01

It is considered the efficacy of decisions concerning remedial actions when of-site radiological monitoring in the early and (or) in the intermediate phases was absent or was not informative. There are examples of such situations in the former Soviet Union where many people have been exposed: releases of radioactive materials from 'Krasnoyarsk-26' into Enisey River, releases of radioactive materials from 'Chelabinsk-65' (the Kishtim accident), nuclear tests at the Semipalatinsk Test Site, the Chernobyl nuclear accident etc. If monitoring in the early and (or) in the intermediate phases is absent the decisions concerning remedial actions are usually developed on the basemore » of permanent monitoring. However decisions of this kind may be essentially erroneous. For these cases it is proposed to make retrospection of radiological data of the early and intermediate phases of nuclear accident and to project decisions concerning remedial actions on the base of both retrospective data and permanent monitoring data. In this Report the indicated problem is considered by the example of the Chernobyl accident for Ukraine. Their of-site radiological monitoring in the early and intermediate phases was unsatisfactory. In particular, the pasture-cow-milk monitoring had not been made. All official decisions concerning dose estimations had been made on the base of measurements of {sup 137}Cs in body (40 measurements in 135 days and 55 measurements in 229 days after the Chernobyl accident). For the retrospection of radiological data of the Chernobyl accident dynamic model has been developed. This model has structure similar to the structure of Pathway model and Farmland model. Parameters of the developed model have been identified for agricultural conditions of Russia and Ukraine. By means of this model dynamics of 20 radionuclides in pathways and dynamics of doses have been estimated for the early, intermediate and late phases of the Chernobyl accident. The main results are following: - During the first year after the Chernobyl accident 75-93% of Commitment Effective Dose had been formed; - During the first year after the Chernobyl accident 85-90% of damage from radiation exposure had been formed. During the next 50 years (the late phase of accident) only 10-15% of damage from radiation exposure will have been formed; - Remedial actions (agricultural remedial actions as most effective) in Ukraine are intended for reduction of the damage from consumption of production which is contaminated in the late phase of accident. I.e. agricultural remedial actions have been intended for minimization only 10 % of the total damage from radiation exposure; - Medical countermeasures can minimize radiation exposure damage by an order of magnitude greater than agricultural countermeasures. - Thus, retrospection of nuclear accident has essentially changed type of remedial actions and has given a chance to increase effectiveness of spending by an order of magnitude. This example illustrates that in order to optimize remedial actions it is required to use data of retrospection of nuclear accidents in all cases when monitoring in the early and (or) intermediate phases is unsatisfactory. (author)« less

Diagnostics of Loss of Coolant Accidents Using SVC and GMDH Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Sung Han; No, Young Gyu; Na, Man Gyun; Ahn, Kwang-Il; Park, Soo-Yong

2011-02-01

As a means of effectively managing severe accidents at nuclear power plants, it is important to identify and diagnose accident initiating events within a short time interval after the accidents by observing the major measured signals. The main objective of this study was to diagnose loss of coolant accidents (LOCAs) using artificial intelligence techniques, such as SVC (support vector classification) and GMDH (group method of data handling). In this study, the methodologies of SVC and GMDH models were utilized to discover the break location and estimate the break size of the LOCA, respectively. The 300 accident simulation data (based on MAAP4) were used to develop the SVC and GMDH models, and the 33 test data sets were used to independently confirm whether or not the SVC and GMDH models work well. The measured signals from the reactor coolant system, steam generators, and containment at a nuclear power plant were used as inputs to the models, and the 60 sec time-integrated values of the input signals were used as inputs into the SVC and GMDH models. The simulation results confirmed that the proposed SVC model can identify the break location and the proposed GMDH models can estimate the break size accurately. In addition, even if the measurement errors exist and safety systems actuate, the proposed SVC and GMDH models can discover the break locations without a misclassification and accurately estimate the break size.

Network-level accident-mapping: Distance based pattern matching using artificial neural network.

PubMed

Deka, Lipika; Quddus, Mohammed

2014-04-01

The objective of an accident-mapping algorithm is to snap traffic accidents onto the correct road segments. Assigning accidents onto the correct segments facilitate to robustly carry out some key analyses in accident research including the identification of accident hot-spots, network-level risk mapping and segment-level accident risk modelling. Existing risk mapping algorithms have some severe limitations: (i) they are not easily 'transferable' as the algorithms are specific to given accident datasets; (ii) they do not perform well in all road-network environments such as in areas of dense road network; and (iii) the methods used do not perform well in addressing inaccuracies inherent in and type of road environment. The purpose of this paper is to develop a new accident mapping algorithm based on the common variables observed in most accident databases (e.g. road name and type, direction of vehicle movement before the accident and recorded accident location). The challenges here are to: (i) develop a method that takes into account uncertainties inherent to the recorded traffic accident data and the underlying digital road network data, (ii) accurately determine the type and proportion of inaccuracies, and (iii) develop a robust algorithm that can be adapted for any accident set and road network of varying complexity. In order to overcome these challenges, a distance based pattern-matching approach is used to identify the correct road segment. This is based on vectors containing feature values that are common in the accident data and the network data. Since each feature does not contribute equally towards the identification of the correct road segments, an ANN approach using the single-layer perceptron is used to assist in "learning" the relative importance of each feature in the distance calculation and hence the correct link identification. The performance of the developed algorithm was evaluated based on a reference accident dataset from the UK confirming that the accuracy is much better than other methods. Crown Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk analysis of emergent water pollution accidents based on a Bayesian Network.

PubMed

Tang, Caihong; Yi, Yujun; Yang, Zhifeng; Sun, Jie

2016-01-01

To guarantee the security of water quality in water transfer channels, especially in open channels, analysis of potential emergent pollution sources in the water transfer process is critical. It is also indispensable for forewarnings and protection from emergent pollution accidents. Bridges above open channels with large amounts of truck traffic are the main locations where emergent accidents could occur. A Bayesian Network model, which consists of six root nodes and three middle layer nodes, was developed in this paper, and was employed to identify the possibility of potential pollution risk. Dianbei Bridge is reviewed as a typical bridge on an open channel of the Middle Route of the South to North Water Transfer Project where emergent traffic accidents could occur. Risk of water pollutions caused by leakage of pollutants into water is focused in this study. The risk for potential traffic accidents at the Dianbei Bridge implies a risk for water pollution in the canal. Based on survey data, statistical analysis, and domain specialist knowledge, a Bayesian Network model was established. The human factor of emergent accidents has been considered in this model. Additionally, this model has been employed to describe the probability of accidents and the risk level. The sensitive reasons for pollution accidents have been deduced. The case has also been simulated that sensitive factors are in a state of most likely to lead to accidents. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An open simulation approach to identify chances and limitations for vulnerable road user (VRU) active safety.

PubMed

Seiniger, Patrick; Bartels, Oliver; Pastor, Claus; Wisch, Marcus

2013-01-01

It is commonly agreed that active safety will have a significant impact on reducing accident figures for pedestrians and probably also bicyclists. However, chances and limitations for active safety systems have only been derived based on accident data and the current state of the art, based on proprietary simulation models. The objective of this article is to investigate these chances and limitations by developing an open simulation model. This article introduces a simulation model, incorporating accident kinematics, driving dynamics, driver reaction times, pedestrian dynamics, performance parameters of different autonomous emergency braking (AEB) generations, as well as legal and logical limitations. The level of detail for available pedestrian accident data is limited. Relevant variables, especially timing of the pedestrian appearance and the pedestrian's moving speed, are estimated using assumptions. The model in this article uses the fact that a pedestrian and a vehicle in an accident must have been in the same spot at the same time and defines the impact position as a relevant accident parameter, which is usually available from accident data. The calculations done within the model identify the possible timing available for braking by an AEB system as well as the possible speed reduction for different accident scenarios as well as for different system configurations. The simulation model identifies the lateral impact position of the pedestrian as a significant parameter for system performance, and the system layout is designed to brake when the accident becomes unavoidable by the vehicle driver. Scenarios with a pedestrian running from behind an obstruction are the most demanding scenarios and will very likely never be avoidable for all vehicle speeds due to physical limits. Scenarios with an unobstructed person walking will very likely be treatable for a wide speed range for next generation AEB systems.

NOTE: Development of modified voxel phantoms for the numerical dosimetric reconstruction of radiological accidents involving external sources: implementation in SESAME tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Courageot, Estelle; Sayah, Rima; Huet, Christelle

2010-05-01

Estimating the dose distribution in a victim's body is a relevant indicator in assessing biological damage from exposure in the event of a radiological accident caused by an external source. When the dose distribution is evaluated with a numerical anthropomorphic model, the posture and morphology of the victim have to be reproduced as realistically as possible. Several years ago, IRSN developed a specific software application, called the simulation of external source accident with medical images (SESAME), for the dosimetric reconstruction of radiological accidents by numerical simulation. This tool combines voxel geometry and the MCNP(X) Monte Carlo computer code for radiation-material interaction. This note presents a new functionality in this software that enables the modelling of a victim's posture and morphology based on non-uniform rational B-spline (NURBS) surfaces. The procedure for constructing the modified voxel phantoms is described, along with a numerical validation of this new functionality using a voxel phantom of the RANDO tissue-equivalent physical model.

Development of modified voxel phantoms for the numerical dosimetric reconstruction of radiological accidents involving external sources: implementation in SESAME tool.

PubMed

Courageot, Estelle; Sayah, Rima; Huet, Christelle

2010-05-07

Estimating the dose distribution in a victim's body is a relevant indicator in assessing biological damage from exposure in the event of a radiological accident caused by an external source. When the dose distribution is evaluated with a numerical anthropomorphic model, the posture and morphology of the victim have to be reproduced as realistically as possible. Several years ago, IRSN developed a specific software application, called the simulation of external source accident with medical images (SESAME), for the dosimetric reconstruction of radiological accidents by numerical simulation. This tool combines voxel geometry and the MCNP(X) Monte Carlo computer code for radiation-material interaction. This note presents a new functionality in this software that enables the modelling of a victim's posture and morphology based on non-uniform rational B-spline (NURBS) surfaces. The procedure for constructing the modified voxel phantoms is described, along with a numerical validation of this new functionality using a voxel phantom of the RANDO tissue-equivalent physical model.

Bayesian-network-based safety risk assessment for steel construction projects.

PubMed

Leu, Sou-Sen; Chang, Ching-Miao

2013-05-01

There are four primary accident types at steel building construction (SC) projects: falls (tumbles), object falls, object collapse, and electrocution. Several systematic safety risk assessment approaches, such as fault tree analysis (FTA) and failure mode and effect criticality analysis (FMECA), have been used to evaluate safety risks at SC projects. However, these traditional methods ineffectively address dependencies among safety factors at various levels that fail to provide early warnings to prevent occupational accidents. To overcome the limitations of traditional approaches, this study addresses the development of a safety risk-assessment model for SC projects by establishing the Bayesian networks (BN) based on fault tree (FT) transformation. The BN-based safety risk-assessment model was validated against the safety inspection records of six SC building projects and nine projects in which site accidents occurred. The ranks of posterior probabilities from the BN model were highly consistent with the accidents that occurred at each project site. The model accurately provides site safety-management abilities by calculating the probabilities of safety risks and further analyzing the causes of accidents based on their relationships in BNs. In practice, based on the analysis of accident risks and significant safety factors, proper preventive safety management strategies can be established to reduce the occurrence of accidents on SC sites. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Morphological verification problems of Chernobyl factor influence on the testis of coal miners of Donbas-liquidators of Chernobyl accident].

PubMed

Danylov, Iu V; Motkov, K V; Shevchenko, T I

2013-01-01

Problem of a diagnostic of Chernobyl factor influences on different organs and systems of Chernobyl accident liquidators are remain actually until now. Though morbidly background which development at unfavorable work conditions in underground coalminers prevents from objective identification features of Chernobyl factor influences. The qualitative and quantitative histological and immunohistochemical law of morphogenesis changes in testis of Donbas's coalminer - non-liquidators Chernobyl accident in comparison with the group of Donbas's coalminers-liquidators Chernobyl accident, which we were stationed non determined problem. This reason stipulates to development and practical use of mathematical model of morphogenesis of a testis changes.

[Morphological verification problems of Chernobyl factor influence on the prostate of coalminers of Donbas--liquidators of Chernobyl accident].

PubMed

Danylov, Iu V; Motkov, K V; Shevchenko, T I

2013-12-01

Problem of a diagnostic of Chernobyl factor influences on different organs and systems of Chernobyl accident liquidators are remain actually until now. Though morbidly background which development at unfavorable work conditions in underground coalminers prevents from objective identification features of Chernobyl factor influences. The qualitative and quantitative histological and immunohistochemical law of morphogenesis changes in prostate of Donbas's coalminer-non-liquidators Chernobyl accident in comparison with the group of Donbas's coalminers-liquidators Chernobyl accident which we were stationed non determined problem. This reason stipulates to development and practical use of mathematical model of morphogenesis of a prostatic gland changes.

Risk analysis of urban gas pipeline network based on improved bow-tie model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hao, M. J.; You, Q. J.; Yue, Z.

2017-11-01

Gas pipeline network is a major hazard source in urban areas. In the event of an accident, there could be grave consequences. In order to understand more clearly the causes and consequences of gas pipeline network accidents, and to develop prevention and mitigation measures, the author puts forward the application of improved bow-tie model to analyze risks of urban gas pipeline network. The improved bow-tie model analyzes accident causes from four aspects: human, materials, environment and management; it also analyzes the consequences from four aspects: casualty, property loss, environment and society. Then it quantifies the causes and consequences. Risk identification, risk analysis, risk assessment, risk control, and risk management will be clearly shown in the model figures. Then it can suggest prevention and mitigation measures accordingly to help reduce accident rate of gas pipeline network. The results show that the whole process of an accident can be visually investigated using the bow-tie model. It can also provide reasons for and predict consequences of an unfortunate event. It is of great significance in order to analyze leakage failure of gas pipeline network.

Towards a better reliability of risk assessment: development of a qualitative & quantitative risk evaluation model (Q2REM) for different trades of construction works in Hong Kong.

PubMed

Fung, Ivan W H; Lo, Tommy Y; Tung, Karen C F

2012-09-01

Since the safety professionals are the key decision makers dealing with project safety and risk assessment in the construction industry, their perceptions of safety risk would directly affect the reliability of risk assessment. The safety professionals generally tend to heavily rely on their own past experiences to make subjective decisions on risk assessment without systematic decision making. Indeed, understanding of the underlying principles of risk assessment is significant. In this study, the qualitative analysis on the safety professionals' beliefs of risk assessment and their perceptions towards risk assessment, including their recognitions of possible accident causes, the degree of differentiations on their perceptions of risk levels of different trades of works, recognitions of the occurrence of different types of accidents, and their inter-relationships with safety performance in terms of accident rates will be explored in the Stage 1. At the second stage, the deficiencies of the current general practice for risk assessment can be sorted out firstly. Based on the findings from Stage 1 and the historical accident data from 15 large-scaled construction projects in 3-year average, a risk evaluation model prioritizing the risk levels of different trades of works and which cause different types of site accident due to various accident causes will be developed quantitatively. With the suggested systematic accident recording techniques, this model can be implemented in the construction industry at both project level and organizational level. The model (Q(2)REM) not only act as a useful supplementary guideline of risk assessment for the construction safety professionals, but also assists them to pinpoint the potential risks on site for the construction workers under respective trades of works through safety trainings and education. It, in turn, arouses their awareness on safety risk. As the Q(2)REM can clearly show the potential accident causes leading to different types of accident by trade of works, it helps the concerned safety professionals and parties to plan effective accident prevention measures with reference to the priority of the risk levels. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An investigation on fatality of drivers in vehicle-fixed object accidents on expressways in China: Using multinomial logistic regression model.

PubMed

Peng, Yong; Peng, Shuangling; Wang, Xinghua; Tan, Shiyang

2018-06-01

This study aims to identify the effects of characteristics of vehicle, roadway, driver, and environment on fatality of drivers in vehicle-fixed object accidents on expressways in Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan district of Hunan province in China by developing multinomial logistic regression models. For this purpose, 121 vehicle-fixed object accidents from 2011-2017 are included in the modeling process. First, descriptive statistical analysis is made to understand the main characteristics of the vehicle-fixed object crashes. Then, 19 explanatory variables are selected, and correlation analysis of each two variables is conducted to choose the variables to be concluded. Finally, five multinomial logistic regression models including different independent variables are compared, and the model with best fitting and prediction capability is chosen as the final model. The results showed that the turning direction in avoiding fixed objects raised the possibility that drivers would die. About 64% of drivers died in the accident were found being ejected out of the car, of which 50% did not use a seatbelt before the fatal accidents. Drivers are likely to die when they encounter bad weather on the expressway. Drivers with less than 10 years of driving experience are more likely to die in these accidents. Fatigue or distracted driving is also a significant factor in fatality of drivers. Findings from this research provide an insight into reducing fatality of drivers in vehicle-fixed object accidents.

Road Traffic Accident Analysis of Ajmer City Using Remote Sensing and GIS Technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhalla, P.; Tripathi, S.; Palria, S.

2014-12-01

With advancement in technology, new and sophisticated models of vehicle are available and their numbers are increasing day by day. A traffic accident has multi-facet characteristics associated with it. In India 93% of crashes occur due to Human induced factor (wholly or partly). For proper traffic accident analysis use of GIS technology has become an inevitable tool. The traditional accident database is a summary spreadsheet format using codes and mileposts to denote location, type and severity of accidents. Geo-referenced accident database is location-referenced. It incorporates a GIS graphical interface with the accident information to allow for query searches on various accident attributes. Ajmer city, headquarter of Ajmer district, Rajasthan has been selected as the study area. According to Police records, 1531 accidents occur during 2009-2013. Maximum accident occurs in 2009 and the maximum death in 2013. Cars, jeeps, auto, pickup and tempo are mostly responsible for accidents and that the occurrence of accidents is mostly concentrated between 4PM to 10PM. GIS has proved to be a good tool for analyzing multifaceted nature of accidents. While road safety is a critical issue, yet it is handled in an adhoc manner. This Study is a demonstration of application of GIS for developing an efficient database on road accidents taking Ajmer City as a study. If such type of database is developed for other cities, a proper analysis of accidents can be undertaken and suitable management strategies for traffic regulation can be successfully proposed.

Formulating accident occurrence as a survival process.

PubMed

Chang, H L; Jovanis, P P

1990-10-01

A conceptual framework for accident occurrence is developed based on the principle of the driver as an information processor. The framework underlies the development of a modeling approach that is consistent with the definition of exposure to risk as a repeated trial. Survival theory is proposed as a statistical technique that is consistent with the conceptual structure and allows the exploration of a wide range of factors that contribute to highway operating risk. This survival model of accident occurrence is developed at a disaggregate level, allowing safety researchers to broaden the scope of studies which may be limited by the use of traditional aggregate approaches. An application of the approach to motor carrier safety is discussed as are potential applications to a variety of transportation industries. Lastly, a typology of highway safety research methodologies is developed to compare the properties of four safety methodologies: laboratory experiments, on-the-road studies, multidisciplinary accident investigations, and correlational studies. The survival theory formulation has a mathematical structure that is compatible with each safety methodology, so it may facilitate the integration of findings across methodologies.

Assessment of the risk due to release of carbon fiber in civil aircraft accidents, phase 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pocinki, L.; Cornell, M. E.; Kaplan, L.

1980-01-01

The risk associated with the potential use of carbon fiber composite material in commercial jet aircraft is investigated. A simulation model developed to generate risk profiles for several airports is described. The risk profiles show the probability that the cost due to accidents in any year exceeds a given amount. The computer model simulates aircraft accidents with fire, release of fibers, their downwind transport and infiltration of buildings, equipment failures, and resulting ecomomic impact. The individual airport results were combined to yield the national risk profile.

Utilization of accident databases and fuzzy sets to estimate frequency of HazMat transport accidents.

PubMed

Qiao, Yuanhua; Keren, Nir; Mannan, M Sam

2009-08-15

Risk assessment and management of transportation of hazardous materials (HazMat) require the estimation of accident frequency. This paper presents a methodology to estimate hazardous materials transportation accident frequency by utilizing publicly available databases and expert knowledge. The estimation process addresses route-dependent and route-independent variables. Negative binomial regression is applied to an analysis of the Department of Public Safety (DPS) accident database to derive basic accident frequency as a function of route-dependent variables, while the effects of route-independent variables are modeled by fuzzy logic. The integrated methodology provides the basis for an overall transportation risk analysis, which can be used later to develop a decision support system.

Statistical aspects of carbon fiber risk assessment modeling. [fire accidents involving aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gross, D.; Miller, D. R.; Soland, R. M.

1980-01-01

The probabilistic and statistical aspects of the carbon fiber risk assessment modeling of fire accidents involving commercial aircraft are examined. Three major sources of uncertainty in the modeling effort are identified. These are: (1) imprecise knowledge in establishing the model; (2) parameter estimation; and (3)Monte Carlo sampling error. All three sources of uncertainty are treated and statistical procedures are utilized and/or developed to control them wherever possible.

Assessment of trend and seasonality in road accident data: an Iranian case study.

PubMed

Razzaghi, Alireza; Bahrampour, Abbas; Baneshi, Mohammad Reza; Zolala, Farzaneh

2013-06-01

Road traffic accidents and their related deaths have become a major concern, particularly in developing countries. Iran has adopted a series of policies and interventions to control the high number of accidents occurring over the past few years. In this study we used a time series model to understand the trend of accidents, and ascertain the viability of applying ARIMA models on data from Taybad city. This study is a cross-sectional study. We used data from accidents occurring in Taybad between 2007 and 2011. We obtained the data from the Ministry of Health (MOH) and used the time series method with a time lag of one month. After plotting the trend, non-stationary data in mean and variance were removed using Box-Cox transformation and a differencing method respectively. The ACF and PACF plots were used to control the stationary situation. The traffic accidents in our study had an increasing trend over the five years of study. Based on ACF and PACF plots gained after applying Box-Cox transformation and differencing, data did not fit to a time series model. Therefore, neither ARIMA model nor seasonality were observed. Traffic accidents in Taybad have an upward trend. In addition, we expected either the AR model, MA model or ARIMA model to have a seasonal trend, yet this was not observed in this analysis. Several reasons may have contributed to this situation, such as uncertainty of the quality of data, weather changes, and behavioural factors that are not taken into account by time series analysis.

Development and Assessment of CFD Models Including a Supplemental Program Code for Analyzing Buoyancy-Driven Flows Through BWR Fuel Assemblies in SFP Complete LOCA Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Artnak, Edward Joseph, III

This work seeks to illustrate the potential benefits afforded by implementing aspects of fluid dynamics, especially the latest computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling approach, through numerical experimentation and the traditional discipline of physical experimentation to improve the calibration of the severe reactor accident analysis code, MELCOR, in one of several spent fuel pool (SFP) complete loss-ofcoolant accident (LOCA) scenarios. While the scope of experimental work performed by Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) extends well beyond that which is reasonably addressed by our allotted resources and computational time in accordance with initial project allocations to complete the report, these simulated case trials produced a significant array of supplementary high-fidelity solutions and hydraulic flow-field data in support of SNL research objectives. Results contained herein show FLUENT CFD model representations of a 9x9 BWR fuel assembly in conditions corresponding to a complete loss-of-coolant accident scenario. In addition to the CFD model developments, a MATLAB based controlvolume model was constructed to independently assess the 9x9 BWR fuel assembly under similar accident scenarios. The data produced from this work show that FLUENT CFD models are capable of resolving complex flow fields within a BWR fuel assembly in the realm of buoyancy-induced mass flow rates and that characteristic hydraulic parameters from such CFD simulations (or physical experiments) are reasonably employed in corresponding constitutive correlations for developing simplified numerical models of comparable solution accuracy.

Key Parameters for Operator Diagnosis of BWR Plant Condition during a Severe Accident

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Clayton, Dwight A.; Poore, III, Willis P.

2015-01-01

The objective of this research is to examine the key information needed from nuclear power plant instrumentation to guide severe accident management and mitigation for boiling water reactor (BWR) designs (specifically, a BWR/4-Mark I), estimate environmental conditions that the instrumentation will experience during a severe accident, and identify potential gaps in existing instrumentation that may require further research and development. This report notes the key parameters that instrumentation needs to measure to help operators respond to severe accidents. A follow-up report will assess severe accident environmental conditions as estimated by severe accident simulation model analysis for a specific US BWR/4-Markmore » I plant for those instrumentation systems considered most important for accident management purposes.« less

Numerical reconstruction and injury biomechanism in a car-pedestrian crash accident.

PubMed

Zou, Dong-Hua; Li, Zheng-Dong; Shao, Yu; Feng, Hao; Chen, Jian-Guo; Liu, Ning-Guo; Huang, Ping; Chen, Yi-Jiu

2012-12-01

To reconstruct a car-pedestrian crash accident using numerical simulation technology and explore the injury biomechanism as forensic evidence for injury identification. An integration of multi-body dynamic, finite element (FE), and classical method was applied to a car-pedestrian crash accident. The location of the collision and the details of the traffic accident were determined by vehicle trace verification and autopsy. The accident reconstruction was performed by coupling the three-dimensional car behavior from PC-CRASH with a MADYMO dummy model. The collision FE models of head and leg, developed from CT scans of human remains, were loaded with calculated dummy collision parameters. The data of the impact biomechanical responses were extracted in terms of von Mises stress, relative displacement, strain and stress fringes. The accident reconstruction results were identical with the examined ones and the biomechanism of head and leg injuries, illustrated through the FE methods, were consistent with the classical injury theories. The numerical simulation technology is proved to be effective in identifying traffic accidents and exploring of injury biomechanism.

Manned space flight nuclear system safety. Volume 3: Reactor system preliminary nuclear safety analysis. Part 2: Accident Model Document (AMD)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1972-01-01

The Accident Model Document is one of three documents of the Preliminary Safety Analysis Report (PSAR) - Reactor System as applied to a Space Base Program. Potential terrestrial nuclear hazards involving the zirconium hydride reactor-Brayton power module are identified for all phases of the Space Base program. The accidents/events that give rise to the hazards are defined and abort sequence trees are developed to determine the sequence of events leading to the hazard and the associated probabilities of occurence. Source terms are calculated to determine the magnitude of the hazards. The above data is used in the mission accident analysis to determine the most probable and significant accidents/events in each mission phase. The only significant hazards during the prelaunch and launch ascent phases of the mission are those which arise form criticality accidents. Fission product inventories during this time period were found to be very low due to very limited low power acceptance testing.

The effect of road characteristics on motorcycle accident in Batu east Java Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abusini, Sobri

2013-09-01

Safe of transportation on road is global problem with not only transportation problem, but also social teritory problem in sosial life. WHO pay attention to safe transportation on road to decide healthy day in the world 2004 with caption: Road Safety is no Accident. WHO is clariafy that road accident level in the world have to reach 1.2 mellion victim death and over 30 mellion injuries every year. As much 85% sacrifice death are accident in develop state, where vehicle number only 32% from vehicle number in the world. That becouse as the objective is to decide influence road charakteristics geometrics for motorcycle accident in Batu East Java Indonesia. Using some statistical analysis it is found that the best-fit motorcycle accident model is: Acc = 0,009F0,703exp(-0,334SW-0,361G+0.077S) Where: Acc = number of accident, F = Flow, pcu/hr, SW = shoulder width (m), S = speed, km/hr, G = Gradient (0,1) The model shows that the affecting factors are flow, shoulder width and speed, therefore local government should improve some related factor (flow, shoulder width, Gradient and speed) that can reduce the number of motorcycle accident at crossing road in Batu.

Object-Oriented Bayesian Networks (OOBN) for Aviation Accident Modeling and Technology Portfolio Impact Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shih, Ann T.; Ancel, Ersin; Jones, Sharon M.

2012-01-01

The concern for reducing aviation safety risk is rising as the National Airspace System in the United States transforms to the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen). The NASA Aviation Safety Program is committed to developing an effective aviation safety technology portfolio to meet the challenges of this transformation and to mitigate relevant safety risks. The paper focuses on the reasoning of selecting Object-Oriented Bayesian Networks (OOBN) as the technique and commercial software for the accident modeling and portfolio assessment. To illustrate the benefits of OOBN in a large and complex aviation accident model, the in-flight Loss-of-Control Accident Framework (LOCAF) constructed as an influence diagram is presented. An OOBN approach not only simplifies construction and maintenance of complex causal networks for the modelers, but also offers a well-organized hierarchical network that is easier for decision makers to exploit the model examining the effectiveness of risk mitigation strategies through technology insertions.

The Viareggio LPG railway accident: event reconstruction and modeling.

PubMed

Brambilla, Sara; Manca, Davide

2010-10-15

This manuscript describes in detail the LPG accident occurred in Viareggio on June 2009 and its modeling. The accident investigation highlighted the uncertainty and complexity of assessing and modeling what happened in the congested environment close to the Viareggio railway station. Nonetheless, the analysis allowed comprehending the sequence of events, the way they influenced each other, and the different possible paths/evolutions. The paper describes suitable models for the quantitative assessment of the consequences of the most probable accidental dynamics and its outcomes. The main finding is that after about 80 s from the beginning of the release the dense-gas cloud reached the surrounding houses that were destroyed successively by internal explosions. This fact has two main implications. First, it shows that the adopted modeling framework can give a correct picture of what happened in Viareggio. Second, it confirms the need to develop effective mitigation measures because, in case of this kind of accidents, there is no time to apply any protective emergency plans/actions. 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Nuclear fuel in a reactor accident.

PubMed

Burns, Peter C; Ewing, Rodney C; Navrotsky, Alexandra

2012-03-09

Nuclear accidents that lead to melting of a reactor core create heterogeneous materials containing hundreds of radionuclides, many with short half-lives. The long-lived fission products and transuranium elements within damaged fuel remain a concern for millennia. Currently, accurate fundamental models for the prediction of release rates of radionuclides from fuel, especially in contact with water, after an accident remain limited. Relatively little is known about fuel corrosion and radionuclide release under the extreme chemical, radiation, and thermal conditions during and subsequent to a nuclear accident. We review the current understanding of nuclear fuel interactions with the environment, including studies over the relatively narrow range of geochemical, hydrological, and radiation environments relevant to geological repository performance, and discuss priorities for research needed to develop future predictive models.

Correlation of causal factors that influence construction safety performance: A model.

PubMed

Rodrigues, F; Coutinho, A; Cardoso, C

2015-01-01

The construction sector has presented positive development regarding the decrease in occupational accident rates in recent years. Regardless, the construction sector stands out systematically from other industries due to its high number of fatalities. The aim of this paper is to deeply understand the causality of construction accidents from the early design phase through a model. This study reviewed several research papers presenting various analytical models that correlate the contributing factors to occupational accidents in this sector. This study also analysed different construction projects and conducted a survey of design and site supervision teams. This paper proposes a model developed from the analysis of existing ones, which correlates the causal factors through all the construction phases. It was concluded that effective risk prevention can only be achieved by a global correlation of causal factors including not only production ones but also client requirements, financial climate, design team competence, project and risk management, financial capacity, health and safety policy and early planning. Accordingly, a model is proposed.

Organisational Factors of Occupational Accidents with Movement Disturbance (OAMD) and Prevention

PubMed Central

LECLERCQ, Sylvie

2014-01-01

Workplace design and upkeep, or human factors, are frequently advanced for explaining so-called Occupational Slip, Trip and Fall Accidents (OSTFAs). Despite scientific progress, these accidents, and more broadly Occupational Accidents with Movement Disturbance (OAMDs), are also commonly considered to be “simple”. This paper aims to stimulate changes in such perceptions by focusing on organisational factors that often combine with other accident factors to cause movement disturbance and injury in work situations. These factors frequently lead to arbitration between production and safety, which involves implementation of controls by workers. These controls can lead to greater worker exposure to OAMD risk. We propose a model that focuses on such controls to account specifically for the need to confront production and safety logics within a company and to enhance the potential for appropriate prevention action. These are then integrated into the set of controls highlighted by work organisation model developed by the NIOSH. PMID:25345425

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kastenberg, W.E.; Apostolakis, G.; Dhir, V.K.

Severe accident management can be defined as the use of existing and/or altemative resources, systems and actors to prevent or mitigate a core-melt accident. For each accident sequence and each combination of severe accident management strategies, there may be several options available to the operator, and each involves phenomenological and operational considerations regarding uncertainty. Operational uncertainties include operator, system and instrumentation behavior during an accident. A framework based on decision trees and influence diagrams has been developed which incorporates such criteria as feasibility, effectiveness, and adverse effects, for evaluating potential severe accident management strategies. The framework is also capable ofmore » propagating both data and model uncertainty. It is applied to several potential strategies including PWR cavity flooding, BWR drywell flooding, PWR depressurization and PWR feed and bleed.« less

A methodology for the transfer of probabilities between accident severity categories

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Whitlow, J. D.; Neuhauser, K. S.

A methodology has been developed which allows the accident probabilities associated with one accident-severity category scheme to be transferred to another severity category scheme. The methodology requires that the schemes use a common set of parameters to define the categories. The transfer of accident probabilities is based on the relationships between probability of occurrence and each of the parameters used to define the categories. Because of the lack of historical data describing accident environments in engineering terms, these relationships may be difficult to obtain directly for some parameters. Numerical models or experienced judgement are often needed to obtain the relationships.more » These relationships, even if they are not exact, allow the accident probability associated with any severity category to be distributed within that category in a manner consistent with accident experience, which in turn will allow the accident probability to be appropriately transferred to a different category scheme.« less

Monte Carlo simulation of single accident airport risk profile

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1979-01-01

A computer simulation model was developed for estimating the potential economic impacts of a carbon fiber release upon facilities within an 80 kilometer radius of a major airport. The model simulated the possible range of release conditions and the resulting dispersion of the carbon fibers. Each iteration of the model generated a specific release scenario, which would cause a specific amount of dollar loss to the surrounding community. By repeated iterations, a risk profile was generated, showing the probability distribution of losses from one accident. Using accident probability estimates, the risks profile for annual losses was derived. The mechanics are described of the simulation model, the required input data, and the risk profiles generated for the 26 large hub airports.

Systems-based accident analysis in the led outdoor activity domain: application and evaluation of a risk management framework.

PubMed

Salmon, P; Williamson, A; Lenné, M; Mitsopoulos-Rubens, E; Rudin-Brown, C M

2010-08-01

Safety-compromising accidents occur regularly in the led outdoor activity domain. Formal accident analysis is an accepted means of understanding such events and improving safety. Despite this, there remains no universally accepted framework for collecting and analysing accident data in the led outdoor activity domain. This article presents an application of Rasmussen's risk management framework to the analysis of the Lyme Bay sea canoeing incident. This involved the development of an Accimap, the outputs of which were used to evaluate seven predictions made by the framework. The Accimap output was also compared to an analysis using an existing model from the led outdoor activity domain. In conclusion, the Accimap output was found to be more comprehensive and supported all seven of the risk management framework's predictions, suggesting that it shows promise as a theoretically underpinned approach for analysing, and learning from, accidents in the led outdoor activity domain. STATEMENT OF RELEVANCE: Accidents represent a significant problem within the led outdoor activity domain. This article presents an evaluation of a risk management framework that can be used to understand such accidents and to inform the development of accident countermeasures and mitigation strategies for the led outdoor activity domain.

Model of cyclist accident characteristics in the city of Malang and Blitar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arifin, M. Z.; Agustin, I. W.

2018-01-01

Utilization of bicycles as an environmentally friendly mode of transportation is reconcerned as the development of sustainable transportation programs. The use of bicycles in some developed countries such as the Netherlands is 27 per cent of total travel, while for developing countries such as Indonesia, cyclists are less than 1% of total travel with low educated characteristics (65 per cent) and low income (48 per cent). Cyclist reduces dependencies on petroleum and environmental pollution as well as lessen the occurrence of congestion and traffic accidents involving motor vehicles. It was necessary to know the behavior and interaction of bicycle riders with other vehicle users in a heterogeneous traffic flow. The main purpose of the research is to create a model of bicycle accidents to increase the road traffic safety in Malang city and Blitar city. The research used analyses of frequency, the road’s level of service, and multiple linear regression. The results showed that there was a need for a development basis of a special lane for bicycle. It aims to reduce the level and number of cyclist accidents and to achieve transportation safety as well as to raise public awareness in traffic safety.

Probabilistic Approach to Conditional Probability of Release of Hazardous Materials from Railroad Tank Cars during Accidents

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-10-13

This paper describes a probabilistic approach to estimate the conditional probability of release of hazardous materials from railroad tank cars during train accidents. Monte Carlo methods are used in developing a probabilistic model to simulate head ...

NASA Standard for Models and Simulations (M and S): Development Process and Rationale

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zang, Thomas A.; Blattnig, Steve R.; Green, Lawrence L.; Hemsch, Michael J.; Luckring, James M.; Morison, Joseph H.; Tripathi, Ram K.

2009-01-01

After the Columbia Accident Investigation Board (CAIB) report. the NASA Administrator at that time chartered an executive team (known as the Diaz Team) to identify the CAIB report elements with Agency-wide applicability, and to develop corrective measures to address each element. This report documents the chronological development and release of an Agency-wide Standard for Models and Simulations (M&S) (NASA Standard 7009) in response to Action #4 from the report, "A Renewed Commitment to Excellence: An Assessment of the NASA Agency-wide Applicability of the Columbia Accident Investigation Board Report, January 30, 2004".

STAMP-Based HRA Considering Causality Within a Sociotechnical System: A Case of Minuteman III Missile Accident.

PubMed

Rong, Hao; Tian, Jin

2015-05-01

The study contributes to human reliability analysis (HRA) by proposing a method that focuses more on human error causality within a sociotechnical system, illustrating its rationality and feasibility by using a case of the Minuteman (MM) III missile accident. Due to the complexity and dynamics within a sociotechnical system, previous analyses of accidents involving human and organizational factors clearly demonstrated that the methods using a sequential accident model are inadequate to analyze human error within a sociotechnical system. System-theoretic accident model and processes (STAMP) was used to develop a universal framework of human error causal analysis. To elaborate the causal relationships and demonstrate the dynamics of human error, system dynamics (SD) modeling was conducted based on the framework. A total of 41 contributing factors, categorized into four types of human error, were identified through the STAMP-based analysis. All factors are related to a broad view of sociotechnical systems, and more comprehensive than the causation presented in the accident investigation report issued officially. Recommendations regarding both technical and managerial improvement for a lower risk of the accident are proposed. The interests of an interdisciplinary approach provide complementary support between system safety and human factors. The integrated method based on STAMP and SD model contributes to HRA effectively. The proposed method will be beneficial to HRA, risk assessment, and control of the MM III operating process, as well as other sociotechnical systems. © 2014, Human Factors and Ergonomics Society.

Measuring accident risk exposure for pedestrians in different micro-environments.

PubMed

Lassarre, Sylvain; Papadimitriou, Eleonora; Yannis, George; Golias, John

2007-11-01

Pedestrians are mainly exposed to the risk of road accident when crossing a road in urban areas. Traditionally in the road safety field, the risk of accident for pedestrian is estimated as a rate of accident involvement per unit of time spent on the road network. The objective of this research is to develop an approach of accident risk based on the concept of risk exposure used in environmental epidemiology, such as in the case of exposure to pollutants. This type of indicator would be useful for comparing the effects of urban transportation policy scenarios on pedestrian safety. The first step is to create an indicator of pedestrians' exposure, which is based on motorised vehicles' "concentration" by lane and also takes account of traffic speed and time spent to cross. This is applied to two specific micro-environments: junctions and mid-block locations. A model of pedestrians' crossing behaviour along a trip is then developed, based on a hierarchical choice between junctions and mid-block locations and taking account of origin and destination, traffic characteristics and pedestrian facilities. Finally, a complete framework is produced for modelling pedestrians' exposure in the light of their crossing behaviour. The feasibility of this approach is demonstrated on an artificial network and a first set of results is obtained from the validation of the models in observational studies.

Applying STAMP in Accident Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Leveson, Nancy; Daouk, Mirna; Dulac, Nicolas; Marais, Karen

2003-01-01

Accident models play a critical role in accident investigation and analysis. Most traditional models are based on an underlying chain of events. These models, however, have serious limitations when used for complex, socio-technical systems. Previously, Leveson proposed a new accident model (STAMP) based on system theory. In STAMP, the basic concept is not an event but a constraint. This paper shows how STAMP can be applied to accident analysis using three different views or models of the accident process and proposes a notation for describing this process.

Heterogeneity of road traffic accident rate in the Russian cities and the need of usage various methods of transport safety management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petrov, A. I.; Petrova, D. A.

2017-10-01

The article considers one of the topical problems of road safety management at the federal level - the problem of the heterogeneity of road traffic accident rate in Russian cities. The article analyzes actual statistical data on road traffic accident rate in the administrative centers of Russia. The histograms of the distribution of the values of two most important road accidents characteristics - Social Risk HR and Severity Rate of Road Accidents - formed in 2016 in administrative centers of Russia are presented. On the basis of the regression model of the statistical connection between Severity Rate of Road Accidents and Social Risk HR, a classification of the Russian cities based on the level of actual road traffic accident rate was developed. On the basis of this classification a differentiated system of priority methods for organizing the safe functioning of transport systems in the cities of Russia is proposed.

Introduction of Bayesian network in risk analysis of maritime accidents in Bangladesh

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahman, Sohanur

2017-12-01

Due to the unique geographic location, complex navigation environment and intense vessel traffic, a considerable number of maritime accidents occurred in Bangladesh which caused serious loss of life, property and environmental contamination. Based on the historical data of maritime accidents from 1981 to 2015, which has been collected from Department of Shipping (DOS) and Bangladesh Inland Water Transport Authority (BIWTA), this paper conducted a risk analysis of maritime accidents by applying Bayesian network. In order to conduct this study, a Bayesian network model has been developed to find out the relation among parameters and the probability of them which affect accidents based on the accident investigation report of Bangladesh. Furthermore, number of accidents in different categories has also been investigated in this paper. Finally, some viable recommendations have been proposed in order to ensure greater safety of inland vessels in Bangladesh.

A two-stage optimization model for emergency material reserve layout planning under uncertainty in response to environmental accidents.

PubMed

Liu, Jie; Guo, Liang; Jiang, Jiping; Jiang, Dexun; Liu, Rentao; Wang, Peng

2016-06-05

In the emergency management relevant to pollution accidents, efficiency emergency rescues can be deeply influenced by a reasonable assignment of the available emergency materials to the related risk sources. In this study, a two-stage optimization framework is developed for emergency material reserve layout planning under uncertainty to identify material warehouse locations and emergency material reserve schemes in pre-accident phase coping with potential environmental accidents. This framework is based on an integration of Hierarchical clustering analysis - improved center of gravity (HCA-ICG) model and material warehouse location - emergency material allocation (MWL-EMA) model. First, decision alternatives are generated using HCA-ICG to identify newly-built emergency material warehouses for risk sources which cannot be satisfied by existing ones with a time-effective manner. Second, emergency material reserve planning is obtained using MWL-EMA to make emergency materials be prepared in advance with a cost-effective manner. The optimization framework is then applied to emergency management system planning in Jiangsu province, China. The results demonstrate that the developed framework not only could facilitate material warehouse selection but also effectively provide emergency material for emergency operations in a quick response. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Adverse fetal outcome in road accidents: Injury mechanism study and injury criteria development in a pregnant woman finite element model.

PubMed

Auriault, F; Thollon, L; Pérès, J; Behr, M

2016-12-01

This study documents the development of adverse fetal outcome predictors dedicated to the analysis of road accidents involving pregnant women. To do so, a pre-existing whole body finite element model representative of a 50th percentile 26 weeks pregnant woman was used. A total of 8 accident scenarios were simulated with the model positioned on a sled. Each of these scenarios was associated to a risk of adverse fetal outcome based on results from real car crash investigations involving pregnant women from the literature. The use of airbags and accidents involving unbelted occupants were not considered in this study. Several adverse fetal outcome potential predictors were then evaluated with regard to their correlation to this risk of fetal injuries. Three predictors appeared strongly correlated to the risk of adverse fetal outcome: (1) the intra uterine pressure at the placenta fetal side area (r=0.92), (2) the fetal head acceleration (HIC) (r=0.99) and (3) area of utero-placental interface over a strain threshold (r=0.90). Finally, sensitivity analysis against slight variations of the simulation parameters was performed and assess robustness of these criteria. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The NASA Aviation Safety Program: Overview

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shin, Jaiwon

2000-01-01

In 1997, the United States set a national goal to reduce the fatal accident rate for aviation by 80% within ten years based on the recommendations by the Presidential Commission on Aviation Safety and Security. Achieving this goal will require the combined efforts of government, industry, and academia in the areas of technology research and development, implementation, and operations. To respond to the national goal, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has developed a program that will focus resources over a five year period on performing research and developing technologies that will enable improvements in many areas of aviation safety. The NASA Aviation Safety Program (AvSP) is organized into six research areas: Aviation System Modeling and Monitoring, System Wide Accident Prevention, Single Aircraft Accident Prevention, Weather Accident Prevention, Accident Mitigation, and Synthetic Vision. Specific project areas include Turbulence Detection and Mitigation, Aviation Weather Information, Weather Information Communications, Propulsion Systems Health Management, Control Upset Management, Human Error Modeling, Maintenance Human Factors, Fire Prevention, and Synthetic Vision Systems for Commercial, Business, and General Aviation aircraft. Research will be performed at all four NASA aeronautics centers and will be closely coordinated with Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and other government agencies, industry, academia, as well as the aviation user community. This paper provides an overview of the NASA Aviation Safety Program goals, structure, and integration with the rest of the aviation community.

Modeling and simulation of cars in frontal collision

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deac, S. C.; Perescu, A.; Simoiu, D.; Nyaguly, E.; Crâştiu, I.; Bereteu, L.

2018-01-01

Protection of cars, mainly drivers and passengers in a collision are very important issues worldwide. Statistics given by “World Health Organization” are alarming rate of increase in the number of road accidents, most claiming with serious injury, human and material loss. For these reasons has been a continuous development of protection systems, especially car causing three quarters of all accidents. Mathematical modeling and simulation of a car behavior during a frontal collision leads to new solutions in the development of protective systems. This paper presents several structural models of a vehicle during a frontal collision and its behavior is analyzed by numerical simulation using Simulink.

Transportation Safety Analysis

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1976-11-01

A conceptual structure was developed for a model expressing transportation accident deaths as a function of transportation activity levels. The literature and data bases were reviewed. A first-level model was developed for the following modes: highwa...

Routes to failure: analysis of 41 civil aviation accidents from the Republic of China using the human factors analysis and classification system.

PubMed

Li, Wen-Chin; Harris, Don; Yu, Chung-San

2008-03-01

The human factors analysis and classification system (HFACS) is based upon Reason's organizational model of human error. HFACS was developed as an analytical framework for the investigation of the role of human error in aviation accidents, however, there is little empirical work formally describing the relationship between the components in the model. This research analyses 41 civil aviation accidents occurring to aircraft registered in the Republic of China (ROC) between 1999 and 2006 using the HFACS framework. The results show statistically significant relationships between errors at the operational level and organizational inadequacies at both the immediately adjacent level (preconditions for unsafe acts) and higher levels in the organization (unsafe supervision and organizational influences). The pattern of the 'routes to failure' observed in the data from this analysis of civil aircraft accidents show great similarities to that observed in the analysis of military accidents. This research lends further support to Reason's model that suggests that active failures are promoted by latent conditions in the organization. Statistical relationships linking fallible decisions in upper management levels were found to directly affect supervisory practices, thereby creating the psychological preconditions for unsafe acts and hence indirectly impairing the performance of pilots, ultimately leading to accidents.

Dynamic safety assessment of natural gas stations using Bayesian network.

PubMed

Zarei, Esmaeil; Azadeh, Ali; Khakzad, Nima; Aliabadi, Mostafa Mirzaei; Mohammadfam, Iraj

2017-01-05

Pipelines are one of the most popular and effective ways of transporting hazardous materials, especially natural gas. However, the rapid development of gas pipelines and stations in urban areas has introduced a serious threat to public safety and assets. Although different methods have been developed for risk analysis of gas transportation systems, a comprehensive methodology for risk analysis is still lacking, especially in natural gas stations. The present work is aimed at developing a dynamic and comprehensive quantitative risk analysis (DCQRA) approach for accident scenario and risk modeling of natural gas stations. In this approach, a FMEA is used for hazard analysis while a Bow-tie diagram and Bayesian network are employed to model the worst-case accident scenario and to assess the risks. The results have indicated that the failure of the regulator system was the worst-case accident scenario with the human error as the most contributing factor. Thus, in risk management plan of natural gas stations, priority should be given to the most probable root events and main contribution factors, which have identified in the present study, in order to reduce the occurrence probability of the accident scenarios and thus alleviate the risks. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Part-time farmers and accidents with agricultural machinery: a moderated mediated model on the role played by frequency of use and unsafe beliefs.

PubMed

Caffaro, Federica; Roccato, Michele; Micheletti Cremasco, Margherita; Cavallo, Eugenio

2018-01-25

We aimed at testing a model of the direct and indirect effects of being a part-time farmer on the probability of being involved in an agricultural machinery-related accident, considering the role played by unsafe beliefs and the frequency of use of machinery. Two-hundred and fifty-two Italian men, regular users of agricultural machinery (age: Mean = 45.1 years, standard Deviation = 17.5), were administered a paper-and-pencil questionnaire addressing their relation with work, unsafe beliefs, and previous experience of machinery-related accidents. Being a part-time farmer showed a positive association with unsafe beliefs only among occasional machinery users. Unsafe beliefs in turn showed a positive association with accidents. The study gave a novel contribution to the knowledge of the chain of events connecting part-time farmers with machinery-related accidents. Preventive training interventions targeting part-timer farmers using agricultural machinery just occasionally should be developed.

Part-time farmers and accidents with agricultural machinery: a moderated mediated model on the role played by frequency of use and unsafe beliefs

PubMed Central

Caffaro, Federica; Roccato, Michele; Micheletti Cremasco, Margherita; Cavallo, Eugenio

2017-01-01

Objectives: We aimed at testing a model of the direct and indirect effects of being a part-time farmer on the probability of being involved in an agricultural machinery-related accident, considering the role played by unsafe beliefs and the frequency of use of machinery. Methods: Two-hundred and fifty-two Italian men, regular users of agricultural machinery (age: Mean = 45.1 years, standard Deviation = 17.5), were administered a paper-and-pencil questionnaire addressing their relation with work, unsafe beliefs, and previous experience of machinery-related accidents. Results: Being a part-time farmer showed a positive association with unsafe beliefs only among occasional machinery users. Unsafe beliefs in turn showed a positive association with accidents. Conclusions: The study gave a novel contribution to the knowledge of the chain of events connecting part-time farmers with machinery-related accidents. Preventive training interventions targeting part-timer farmers using agricultural machinery just occasionally should be developed. PMID:29093365

Traffic accident reconstruction and an approach for prediction of fault rates using artificial neural networks: A case study in Turkey.

PubMed

Can Yilmaz, Ali; Aci, Cigdem; Aydin, Kadir

2016-08-17

Currently, in Turkey, fault rates in traffic accidents are determined according to the initiative of accident experts (no speed analyses of vehicles just considering accident type) and there are no specific quantitative instructions on fault rates related to procession of accidents which just represents the type of collision (side impact, head to head, rear end, etc.) in No. 2918 Turkish Highway Traffic Act (THTA 1983). The aim of this study is to introduce a scientific and systematic approach for determination of fault rates in most frequent property damage-only (PDO) traffic accidents in Turkey. In this study, data (police reports, skid marks, deformation, crush depth, etc.) collected from the most frequent and controversial accident types (4 sample vehicle-vehicle scenarios) that consist of PDO were inserted into a reconstruction software called vCrash. Sample real-world scenarios were simulated on the software to generate different vehicle deformations that also correspond to energy-equivalent speed data just before the crash. These values were used to train a multilayer feedforward artificial neural network (MFANN), function fitting neural network (FITNET, a specialized version of MFANN), and generalized regression neural network (GRNN) models within 10-fold cross-validation to predict fault rates without using software. The performance of the artificial neural network (ANN) prediction models was evaluated using mean square error (MSE) and multiple correlation coefficient (R). It was shown that the MFANN model performed better for predicting fault rates (i.e., lower MSE and higher R) than FITNET and GRNN models for accident scenarios 1, 2, and 3, whereas FITNET performed the best for scenario 4. The FITNET model showed the second best results for prediction for the first 3 scenarios. Because there is no training phase in GRNN, the GRNN model produced results much faster than MFANN and FITNET models. However, the GRNN model had the worst prediction results. The R values for prediction of fault rates were close to 1 for all folds and scenarios. This study focuses on exhibiting new aspects and scientific approaches for determining fault rates of involvement in most frequent PDO accidents occurring in Turkey by discussing some deficiencies in THTA and without regard to initiative and/or experience of experts. This study yields judicious decisions to be made especially on forensic investigations and events involving insurance companies. Referring to this approach, injury/fatal and/or pedestrian-related accidents may be analyzed as future work by developing new scientific models.

Quality evaluation of official accident reports conducted by Labour Authorities in Andalusia (Spain).

PubMed

Salguero-Caparros, Francisco; Suarez-Cebador, Manuel; Carrillo-Castrillo, Jesús A; Rubio-Romero, Juan Carlos

2018-01-01

A public accident investigation is carried out when the consequences of the incident are significant or the accident has occurred in unusual circumstances. We evaluated the quality of the official accident investigations being conducted by Safety Specialists of the Labour Authorities in Andalusia. To achieve this objective, we analysed 98 occupational accident investigations conducted by the Labour Authorities in Andalusia in the last quarter of 2014. Various phases in the accident investigation process were examined, such as the use of the Eurostat variables within European Statistics on Accidents at Work (ESAW), detection of causes, determination of preventive measures, cost analysis of the accidents, identification of noncompliance with legal requirements or the investigation method used. The results of this study show that 77% of the official occupational accident investigation reports analysed were conducted in accordance with all the quality criteria recommended in the literature. To enhance glogal learning, and optimize allocation of resources, we propose the development of a harmonized European model for the public investigation of occupational accidents. Further it would be advisable to create a common classification and coding system for the causes of accidents for all European Union Member States.

Analysis of typical WWER-1000 severe accident scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sorokin, Yu.S.; Shchekoldin, V.V.; Borisov, L.N.

2004-07-01

At present in EDO 'Gidropress' there is a certain experience of performing the analyses of severe accidents of reactor plant with WWER with application of domestic and foreign codes. Important data were also obtained by the results of calculation modeling of integrated experiments with fuel assembly melting comprising a real fuel. Systematization and consideration of these data in development and assimilation of codes are extremely important in connection with large uncertainty still existing in understanding and adequate description of phenomenology of severe accidents. The presented report gives a comparison of analysis results of severe accidents of reactor plant with WWER-1000more » for two typical scenarios made by using American MELCOR code and the Russian RATEG/SVECHA/HEFEST code. The results of calculation modeling are compared using above codes with the data of experiment FPT1 with fuel assembly melting comprising a real fuel, which has been carried out at the facility Phebus (France). The obtained results are considered in the report from the viewpoint of: - adequacy of results of calculation modeling of separate phenomena during severe accidents of RP with WWER by using the above codes; - influence of uncertainties (degree of details of calculation models, choice of parameters of models etc.); - choice of those or other setup variables (options) in the used codes; - necessity of detailed modeling of processes and phenomena as applied to design justification of safety of RP with WWER. (authors)« less

Risk factors affecting the severity of traffic accidents at Shanghai river-crossing tunnel.

PubMed

Lu, Jian John; Xing, Yingying; Wang, Chen; Cai, Xiaonan

2016-01-01

With increasing traffic volume and urban development, increasing numbers of underground tunnels have been constructed to relieve conflict between strained land and heavy traffic. However, as more long tunnels are constructed, tunnel traffic safety is becoming increasingly serious. Thus, it is necessary to acquire their implications and impacts. This study examined 4,539 traffic accidents that have occurred in 14 Shanghai river-crossing tunnels for the period 2011-2012 and analyze the correlation between potential factors and accident injury severity. An ordered logit model was developed to examine the correlation between potential factors and accident injury severity. Results show that increased injury severity is associated with male drivers, drivers aged 65 years or older, accident time from midnight to dawn, weekends, wet road surface, goods vehicles, 3 or more vehicles, 4 or more lanes, middle speed limits (50-79 km/h), zone 3, extra-long tunnels (over 3,000 m), and maximum longitudinal gradient. This article aims to provide useful information for engineers to develop interventions and countermeasures to improve tunnel safety in China.

'Remixing Rasmussen': The evolution of Accimaps within systemic accident analysis.

PubMed

Waterson, Patrick; Jenkins, Daniel P; Salmon, Paul M; Underwood, Peter

2017-03-01

Throughout Jens Rasmussen's career there has been a continued emphasis on the development of methods, techniques and tools for accident analysis and investigation. In this paper we focus on the evolution and development of one specific example, namely Accimaps and their use for accident analysis. We describe the origins of Accimaps followed by a review of 27 studies which have applied and adapted Accimaps over the period 2000-2015 to a range of domains and types of accident. Aside from demonstrating the versatility and popularity of the method, part of the motivation for the review of the use of Accimaps is to address the question of what constitutes a sound, usable, valid and reliable approach to systemic accident analysis. The findings from the review demonstrate continuity with the work carried out by Rasmussen, as well as significant variation (e.g., changes to the Accimap, used of additional theoretical and practice-oriented perspectives on safety). We conclude the paper with some speculations regarding future extension and adaptation of the Accimap approach including the possibility of using hybrid models for accident analysis. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lifelong modelling of properties for materials with technological memory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Falaleev, AP; Meshkov, VV; Vetrogon, AA; Ogrizkov, SV; Shymchenko, AV

2016-10-01

An investigation of real automobile parts produced from dual phase steel during standard periods of life cycle is presented, which considers such processes as stamping, exploitation, automobile accident, and further repair. The development of the phenomenological model of the mechanical properties of such parts was based on the two surface plastic theory of Chaboche. As a consequence of the composite structure of dual phase steel, it was shown that local mechanical properties of parts produced from this material change significantly their during their life cycle, depending on accumulated plastic deformations and thermal treatments. Such mechanical property changes have a considerable impact on the accuracy of the computer modelling of automobile behaviour. The most significant errors of modelling were obtained at the critical operating conditions, such as crashes and accidents. The model developed takes into account the kinematics (Bauschinger effect), isotropic hardening, non-linear elastic steel behaviour and changes caused by the thermal treatment. Using finite element analysis, the model allows the evaluation of the passive safety of a repaired car body, and enables increased restoration accuracy following an accident. The model was confirmed experimentally for parts produced from dual phase steel DP780.

Performances of the PIPER scalable child human body model in accident reconstruction

PubMed Central

Giordano, Chiara; Kleiven, Svein

2017-01-01

Human body models (HBMs) have the potential to provide significant insights into the pediatric response to impact. This study describes a scalable/posable approach to perform child accident reconstructions using the Position and Personalize Advanced Human Body Models for Injury Prediction (PIPER) scalable child HBM of different ages and in different positions obtained by the PIPER tool. Overall, the PIPER scalable child HBM managed reasonably well to predict the injury severity and location of the children involved in real-life crash scenarios documented in the medical records. The developed methodology and workflow is essential for future work to determine child injury tolerances based on the full Child Advanced Safety Project for European Roads (CASPER) accident reconstruction database. With the workflow presented in this study, the open-source PIPER scalable HBM combined with the PIPER tool is also foreseen to have implications for improved safety designs for a better protection of children in traffic accidents. PMID:29135997

Dynamics Modeling and Simulation of Large Transport Airplanes in Upset Conditions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Foster, John V.; Cunningham, Kevin; Fremaux, Charles M.; Shah, Gautam H.; Stewart, Eric C.; Rivers, Robert A.; Wilborn, James E.; Gato, William

2005-01-01

As part of NASA's Aviation Safety and Security Program, research has been in progress to develop aerodynamic modeling methods for simulations that accurately predict the flight dynamics characteristics of large transport airplanes in upset conditions. The motivation for this research stems from the recognition that simulation is a vital tool for addressing loss-of-control accidents, including applications to pilot training, accident reconstruction, and advanced control system analysis. The ultimate goal of this effort is to contribute to the reduction of the fatal accident rate due to loss-of-control. Research activities have involved accident analyses, wind tunnel testing, and piloted simulation. Results have shown that significant improvements in simulation fidelity for upset conditions, compared to current training simulations, can be achieved using state-of-the-art wind tunnel testing and aerodynamic modeling methods. This paper provides a summary of research completed to date and includes discussion on key technical results, lessons learned, and future research needs.

HAS INCREASED BODY WEIGHT MADE DRIVING SAFER?†

PubMed Central

DUNN, RICHARD A.; TEFFT, NATHAN W.

2014-01-01

We develop a model of alcohol consumption that incorporates the negative biological relationship between body mass and inebriation conditional on total alcohol consumption. Our model predicts that the elasticity of inebriation with respect to weight is equal to the own-price elasticity of alcohol, consistent with body mass increasing the effective price of inebriation. Given that alcohol is generally considered price inelastic, this result implies that as individuals gain weight, they consume more alcohol but become less inebriated. We test this prediction and find that driver blood alcohol content (BAC) is negatively associated with driver weight. In fatal accidents with driver BAC above 0.10, the driver was 7.8 percentage points less likely to be obese than drivers in fatal accidents that did not involve alcohol. This relationship is not explained by driver attributes (age and sex), driver behaviors (speed and seatbelt use), vehicle attributes (weight class, model year, and number of occupants), or accident context (county of accident, time of day, and day of week). PMID:24038409

The influence of car registration year on driver casualty rates in Great Britain.

PubMed

Broughton, Jeremy

2012-03-01

A previous paper analysed data from the British national road accident reporting system to investigate the influence upon car driver casualty rates of the general type of car being driven and its year of first registration. A statistical model was fitted to accident data from 2001 to 2005, and this paper updates the principal results using accident data from 2003 to 2007. Attention focuses upon the role of year of first registration since this allows the influence of developments in car design upon occupant casualty numbers to be evaluated. Three additional topics are also examined with these accident data. Changes over time in frontal and side impacts are compared. Changes in the combined risk for the two drivers involved in a car-car collision are investigated, being the net result of changes in secondary safety and aggressivity. Finally, the results of the new model relating to occupant protection are related to an index that had been developed previously to analyse changes over time in the secondary safety of the car fleet. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

LARC-1: a Los Alamos release calculation program for fission product transport in HTGRs during the LOFC accident

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Carruthers, L.M.; Lee, C.E.

1976-10-01

The theoretical and numerical data base development of the LARC-1 code is described. Four analytical models of fission product release from an HTGR core during the loss of forced circulation accident are developed. Effects of diffusion, adsorption and evaporation of the metallics and precursors are neglected in this first LARC model. Comparison of the analytic models indicates that the constant release-renormalized model is adequate to describe the processes involved. The numerical data base for release constants, temperature modeling, fission product release rates, coated fuel particle failure fraction and aged coated fuel particle failure fractions is discussed. Analytic fits and graphicmore » displays for these data are given for the Ft. St. Vrain and GASSAR models.« less

Economic development, mobility and traffic accidents in Algeria.

PubMed

Bougueroua, M; Carnis, L

2016-07-01

The aim of this contribution is to estimate the impact of road economic conditions and mobility on traffic accidents for the case of Algeria. Using the cointegration approach and vector error correction model (VECM), we will examine simultaneously short term and long-term impacts between the number of traffic accidents, fuel consumption and gross domestic product (GDP) per capital, over the period 1970-2013. The main results of the estimation show that the number of traffic accidents in Algeria is positively influenced by the GDP per capita in the short and long term. It implies that a higher economic development worsens the road safety situation. However, the new traffic rules adopted in 2009 have an impact on the forecast trend of traffic accidents, meaning efficient public policy could improve the situation. This result calls for a strong political commitment with effective countermeasures for avoiding the further deterioration of road safety record in Algeria. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An approach to accidents modeling based on compounds road environments.

PubMed

Fernandes, Ana; Neves, Jose

2013-04-01

The most common approach to study the influence of certain road features on accidents has been the consideration of uniform road segments characterized by a unique feature. However, when an accident is related to the road infrastructure, its cause is usually not a single characteristic but rather a complex combination of several characteristics. The main objective of this paper is to describe a methodology developed in order to consider the road as a complete environment by using compound road environments, overcoming the limitations inherented in considering only uniform road segments. The methodology consists of: dividing a sample of roads into segments; grouping them into quite homogeneous road environments using cluster analysis; and identifying the influence of skid resistance and texture depth on road accidents in each environment by using generalized linear models. The application of this methodology is demonstrated for eight roads. Based on real data from accidents and road characteristics, three compound road environments were established where the pavement surface properties significantly influence the occurrence of accidents. Results have showed clearly that road environments where braking maneuvers are more common or those with small radii of curvature and high speeds require higher skid resistance and texture depth as an important contribution to the accident prevention. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analyzing injury severity factors at highway railway grade crossing accidents involving vulnerable road users: A comparative study.

PubMed

Ghomi, Haniyeh; Bagheri, Morteza; Fu, Liping; Miranda-Moreno, Luis F

2016-11-16

The main objective of this study is to identify the main factors associated with injury severity of vulnerable road users (VRUs) involved in accidents at highway railroad grade crossings (HRGCs) using data mining techniques. This article applies an ordered probit model, association rules, and classification and regression tree (CART) algorithms to the U.S. Federal Railroad Administration's (FRA) HRGC accident database for the period 2007-2013 to identify VRU injury severity factors at HRGCs. The results show that train speed is a key factor influencing injury severity. Further analysis illustrated that the presence of illumination does not reduce the severity of accidents for high-speed trains. In addition, there is a greater propensity toward fatal accidents for elderly road users compared to younger individuals. Interestingly, at night, injury accidents involving female road users are more severe compared to those involving males. The ordered probit model was the primary technique, and CART and association rules act as the supporter and identifier of interactions between variables. All 3 algorithms' results consistently show that the most influential accident factors are train speed, VRU age, and gender. The findings of this research could be applied for identifying high-risk hotspots and developing cost-effective countermeasures targeting VRUs at HRGCs.

Heat up and potential failure of BWR upper internals during a severe accident

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Robb, Kevin R

2015-01-01

In boiling water reactors, the steam dome, steam separators, and dryers above the core are comprised of approximately 100 tons of stainless steel. During a severe accident in which the coolant boils away and exothermic oxidation of zirconium occurs, gases (steam and hydrogen) are superheated in the core region and pass through the upper internals. Historically, the upper internals have been modeled using severe accident codes with relatively simple approximations. The upper internals are typically modeled in MELCOR as two lumped volumes with simplified heat transfer characteristics, with no structural integrity considerations, and with limited ability to oxidize, melt, andmore » relocate. The potential for and the subsequent impact of the upper internals to heat up, oxidize, fail, and relocate during a severe accident was investigated. A higher fidelity representation of the shroud dome, steam separators, and steam driers was developed in MELCOR v1.8.6 by extending the core region upwards. This modeling effort entailed adding 45 additional core cells and control volumes, 98 flow paths, and numerous control functions. The model accounts for the mechanical loading and structural integrity, oxidation, melting, flow area blockage, and relocation of the various components. The results indicate that the upper internals can reach high temperatures during a severe accident; they are predicted to reach a high enough temperature such that they lose their structural integrity and relocate. The additional 100 tons of stainless steel debris influences the subsequent in-vessel and ex-vessel accident progression.« less

Road traffic accidents and self-reported Portuguese car driver's attitudes, behaviors, and opinions: Are they related?

PubMed

Bon de Sousa, Teresa; Santos, Carolina; Mateus, Ceu; Areal, Alain; Trigoso, Jose; Nunes, Carla

2016-10-02

This study aims to characterize Portuguese car drivers in terms of demographic characteristics, driving experience, and attitudes, opinions, and behaviors concerning road traffic safety. Furthermore, associations between these characteristics and self-reported involvement in a road traffic accident as a driver in the last 3 years were analyzed. A final goal was to develop a final predictive model of the risk of suffering a road traffic accident. A cross-sectional analytic study was developed, based on a convenience sample of 612 car drivers. A questionnaire was applied by trained interviewers, embracing various topics related to road safety such as driving under the influence of alcohol or drugs, phone use while driving, speeding, use of advanced driver assistance systems, and the transport infrastructure and environment (European Project SARTRE 4, Portuguese version). From the 52 initial questions, 19 variables were selected through principal component analysis. Then, and in addition to the usual descriptive measures, logistic binary regression models were used in order to describe associations and to develop a predictive model of being involved in a road traffic accident. Of the 612 car drivers, 37.3% (228) reported being involved in a road traffic accident with damage or injury in the past 3 years. In this group, the majority were male, older than 65, with no children, not employed, and living in an urban area. In the multivariate model, several factors were identified: being widowed (vs. single; odds ratio [OR] = 3.478, 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.159-10.434); living in a suburban area (vs. a rural area; OR = 5.023, 95% CI, 2.260-11.166); having been checked for alcohol once in the last 3 years (vs. not checked; OR = 3.124, 95% CI, 2.040-4,783); and seldom drinking an energetic beverage such as coffee when tired (vs. always do; OR = 6.822, 95% CI, 2.619-17.769) all suffered a higher risk of being involved in a car accident. The results obtained with regard to behavioral factors meet the majority of the risk factors associated with car accidents referred to in the literature. This study highlights the relation of relatively minor accidents (the majority with no injuries) with an urban (or semi-urban) context and involving older drivers. These accidents are not usually the focus of road safety literature (mainly death and serious health loss) but, in addition to the economic costs involved, they can have a huge impact on road safety (e.g., pedestrian). Specifically, the following interventions can be proposed: more detailed clinical examinations to identify real competencies to drive especially in older drivers (active aging can constitute a new challenge in road safety and new paradigms can arise) and education campaigns on how to cope with fatigue. Future studies in large samples and not based on self-reported behaviors should be developed.

Development of the simulation system {open_quotes}IMPACT{close_quotes} for analysis of nuclear power plant severe accidents

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Naitoh, Masanori; Ujita, Hiroshi; Nagumo, Hiroichi

1997-07-01

The Nuclear Power Engineering Corporation (NUPEC) has initiated a long-term program to develop the simulation system {open_quotes}IMPACT{close_quotes} for analysis of hypothetical severe accidents in nuclear power plants. IMPACT employs advanced methods of physical modeling and numerical computation, and can simulate a wide spectrum of senarios ranging from normal operation to hypothetical, beyond-design-basis-accident events. Designed as a large-scale system of interconnected, hierarchical modules, IMPACT`s distinguishing features include mechanistic models based on first principles and high speed simulation on parallel processing computers. The present plan is a ten-year program starting from 1993, consisting of the initial one-year of preparatory work followed bymore » three technical phases: Phase-1 for development of a prototype system; Phase-2 for completion of the simulation system, incorporating new achievements from basic studies; and Phase-3 for refinement through extensive verification and validation against test results and available real plant data.« less

Input-output model for MACCS nuclear accident impacts estimation¹

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Outkin, Alexander V.; Bixler, Nathan E.; Vargas, Vanessa N

Since the original economic model for MACCS was developed, better quality economic data (as well as the tools to gather and process it) and better computational capabilities have become available. The update of the economic impacts component of the MACCS legacy model will provide improved estimates of business disruptions through the use of Input-Output based economic impact estimation. This paper presents an updated MACCS model, bases on Input-Output methodology, in which economic impacts are calculated using the Regional Economic Accounting analysis tool (REAcct) created at Sandia National Laboratories. This new GDP-based model allows quick and consistent estimation of gross domesticmore » product (GDP) losses due to nuclear power plant accidents. This paper outlines the steps taken to combine the REAcct Input-Output-based model with the MACCS code, describes the GDP loss calculation, and discusses the parameters and modeling assumptions necessary for the estimation of long-term effects of nuclear power plant accidents.« less

Operational atmospheric modeling system CARIS for effective emergency response associated with hazardous chemical releases in Korea.

PubMed

Kim, Cheol-Hee; Park, Jin-Ho; Park, Cheol-Jin; Na, Jin-Gyun

2004-03-01

The Chemical Accidents Response Information System (CARIS) was developed at the Center for Chemical Safety Management in South Korea in order to track and predict the dispersion of hazardous chemicals in the case of an accident or terrorist attack involving chemical companies. The main objective of CARIS is to facilitate an efficient emergency response to hazardous chemical accidents by rapidly providing key information in the decision-making process. In particular, the atmospheric modeling system implemented in CARIS, which is composed of a real-time numerical weather forecasting model and an air pollution dispersion model, can be used as a tool to forecast concentrations and to provide a wide range of assessments associated with various hazardous chemicals in real time. This article introduces the components of CARIS and describes its operational modeling system. Some examples of the operational modeling system and its use for emergency preparedness are presented and discussed. Finally, this article evaluates the current numerical weather prediction model for Korea.

Design and application of a tool for structuring, capitalizing and making more accessible information and lessons learned from accidents involving machinery.

PubMed

Sadeghi, Samira; Sadeghi, Leyla; Tricot, Nicolas; Mathieu, Luc

2017-12-01

Accident reports are published in order to communicate the information and lessons learned from accidents. An efficient accident recording and analysis system is a necessary step towards improvement of safety. However, currently there is a shortage of efficient tools to support such recording and analysis. In this study we introduce a flexible and customizable tool that allows structuring and analysis of this information. This tool has been implemented under TEEXMA®. We named our prototype TEEXMA®SAFETY. This tool provides an information management system to facilitate data collection, organization, query, analysis and reporting of accidents. A predefined information retrieval module provides ready access to data which allows the user to quickly identify the possible hazards for specific machines and provides information on the source of hazards. The main target audience for this tool includes safety personnel, accident reporters and designers. The proposed data model has been developed by analyzing different accident reports.

Analyzing the causation of a railway accident based on a complex network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Xin; Li, Ke-Ping; Luo, Zi-Yan; Zhou, Jin

2014-02-01

In this paper, a new model is constructed for the causation analysis of railway accident based on the complex network theory. In the model, the nodes are defined as various manifest or latent accident causal factors. By employing the complex network theory, especially its statistical indicators, the railway accident as well as its key causations can be analyzed from the overall perspective. As a case, the “7.23” China—Yongwen railway accident is illustrated based on this model. The results show that the inspection of signals and the checking of line conditions before trains run played an important role in this railway accident. In conclusion, the constructed model gives a theoretical clue for railway accident prediction and, hence, greatly reduces the occurrence of railway accidents.

A cascading failure model for analyzing railway accident causation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Jin-Tao; Li, Ke-Ping

2018-01-01

In this paper, a new cascading failure model is proposed for quantitatively analyzing the railway accident causation. In the model, the loads of nodes are redistributed according to the strength of the causal relationships between the nodes. By analyzing the actual situation of the existing prevention measures, a critical threshold of the load parameter in the model is obtained. To verify the effectiveness of the proposed cascading model, simulation experiments of a train collision accident are performed. The results show that the cascading failure model can describe the cascading process of the railway accident more accurately than the previous models, and can quantitatively analyze the sensitivities and the influence of the causes. In conclusion, this model can assist us to reveal the latent rules of accident causation to reduce the occurrence of railway accidents.

Thermal Stratification Analysis for Sodium Fast Reactors

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schneider, James; Anderson, Mark; Baglietto, Emilio

The sodium fast reactor (SFR) is the most mature reactor concept of all the generation-IV nuclear systems and is a promising reactor design that is currently under development by several organizations. The majority of sodium fast reactor designs utilize a pool type arrangement which incorporates the primary coolant pumps and intermediate heat exchangers within the sodium pool. These components typically protrude into the pool thus reducing the risk and severity of a loss of coolant accidents. To further ensure safe operation under even the most severe transients a more comprehensive understanding of key thermal hydraulic phenomena in this pool ismore » desired. One of the key technology gaps identified for SFR safety is determining the extent and the effects of thermal stratification developing in the pool during postulated accident scenarios such as a protected or unprotected loss of flow incident. In an effort to address these issues, detailed flow models of transient stratification in the pool during an accident can be developed. However, to develop the calculation models, and ensure they can reproduce the underlying physics, highly spatially resolved data is needed. This data can be used in conjunction with advanced computational fluid dynamic calculations to aid in the development of simple reduced dimensional models for systems codes such as SAM and SAS4A/SASSYS-1.« less

Persistence of airline accidents.

PubMed

Barros, Carlos Pestana; Faria, Joao Ricardo; Gil-Alana, Luis Alberiko

2010-10-01

This paper expands on air travel accident research by examining the relationship between air travel accidents and airline traffic or volume in the period from 1927-2006. The theoretical model is based on a representative airline company that aims to maximise its profits, and it utilises a fractional integration approach in order to determine whether there is a persistent pattern over time with respect to air accidents and air traffic. Furthermore, the paper analyses how airline accidents are related to traffic using a fractional cointegration approach. It finds that airline accidents are persistent and that a (non-stationary) fractional cointegration relationship exists between total airline accidents and airline passengers, airline miles and airline revenues, with shocks that affect the long-run equilibrium disappearing in the very long term. Moreover, this relation is negative, which might be due to the fact that air travel is becoming safer and there is greater competition in the airline industry. Policy implications are derived for countering accident events, based on competition and regulation. © 2010 The Author(s). Journal compilation © Overseas Development Institute, 2010.

Methodological development for selection of significant predictors explaining fatal road accidents.

PubMed

Dadashova, Bahar; Arenas-Ramírez, Blanca; Mira-McWilliams, José; Aparicio-Izquierdo, Francisco

2016-05-01

Identification of the most relevant factors for explaining road accident occurrence is an important issue in road safety research, particularly for future decision-making processes in transport policy. However model selection for this particular purpose is still an ongoing research. In this paper we propose a methodological development for model selection which addresses both explanatory variable and adequate model selection issues. A variable selection procedure, TIM (two-input model) method is carried out by combining neural network design and statistical approaches. The error structure of the fitted model is assumed to follow an autoregressive process. All models are estimated using Markov Chain Monte Carlo method where the model parameters are assigned non-informative prior distributions. The final model is built using the results of the variable selection. For the application of the proposed methodology the number of fatal accidents in Spain during 2000-2011 was used. This indicator has experienced the maximum reduction internationally during the indicated years thus making it an interesting time series from a road safety policy perspective. Hence the identification of the variables that have affected this reduction is of particular interest for future decision making. The results of the variable selection process show that the selected variables are main subjects of road safety policy measures. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Typical pedestrian accident scenarios for the development of autonomous emergency braking test protocols.

PubMed

Lenard, James; Badea-Romero, Alexandro; Danton, Russell

2014-12-01

An increasing proportion of new vehicles are being fitted with autonomous emergency braking systems. It is difficult for consumers to judge the effectiveness of these safety systems for individual models unless their performance is evaluated through track testing under controlled conditions. This paper aimed to contribute to the development of relevant test conditions by describing typical circumstances of pedestrian accidents. Cluster analysis was applied to two large British databases and both highlighted an urban scenario in daylight and fine weather where a small pedestrian walks across the road, especially from the near kerb, in clear view of a driver who is travelling straight ahead. For each dataset a main test configuration was defined to represent the conditions of the most common accident scenario along with test variations to reflect the characteristics of less common accident scenarios. Some of the variations pertaining to less common accident circumstances or to a minority of casualties in these scenarios were proposed as optional or supplementary test elements for an outstanding performance rating. Many considerations are incorporated into the final design and implementation of an actual testing regime, such as cost and the state of development of technology; only the representation of accident data lay within the scope of this paper. It would be desirable to ascertain the wider representativeness of the results by analysing accident data from other countries in a similar manner. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Extracting recurrent scenarios from narrative texts using a Bayesian network: application to serious occupational accidents with movement disturbance.

PubMed

Abdat, F; Leclercq, S; Cuny, X; Tissot, C

2014-09-01

A probabilistic approach has been developed to extract recurrent serious Occupational Accident with Movement Disturbance (OAMD) scenarios from narrative texts within a prevention framework. Relevant data extracted from 143 accounts was initially coded as logical combinations of generic accident factors. A Bayesian Network (BN)-based model was then built for OAMDs using these data and expert knowledge. A data clustering process was subsequently performed to group the OAMDs into similar classes from generic factor occurrence and pattern standpoints. Finally, the Most Probable Explanation (MPE) was evaluated and identified as the associated recurrent scenario for each class. Using this approach, 8 scenarios were extracted to describe 143 OAMDs in the construction and metallurgy sectors. Their recurrent nature is discussed. Probable generic factor combinations provide a fair representation of particularly serious OAMDs, as described in narrative texts. This work represents a real contribution to raising company awareness of the variety of circumstances, in which these accidents occur, to progressing in the prevention of such accidents and to developing an analysis framework dedicated to this kind of accident. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Impact of the effect of economic crisis and the targeted motorcycle safety programme on motorcycle-related accidents, injuries and fatalities in Malaysia.

PubMed

Law, T H; Umar, R S Radin; Zulkaurnain, S; Kulanthayan, S

2005-03-01

In 1997, a Motorcycle Safety Programme (MSP) was introduced to address the motorcycle-related accident problem. The MSP was specifically targeted at motorcyclists. In addition to the MSP, the recent economic recession has significantly contributed to a reduction of traffic-related incidents. This paper examines the effects of the recent economic crisis and the MSP on motorcycle-related accidents, casualties and fatalities in Malaysia. The autocorrelation integrated moving average model with transfer function was used to evaluate the overall effects of the interventions. The variables used in developing the model were gross domestic product and MSPs. The analysis found a 25% reduction in the number of motorcycle-related accidents, a 27% reduction in motorcycle casualties and a 38% reduction in motorcycle fatalities after the implementation of MSP. Findings indicate that the MSP has been one of the effective measures in reducing motorcycle safety problems in Malaysia. Apart from that, the performance of the country's economy was also found to be significant in explaining the number of motorcycle-related accidents, casualties and fatalities in Malaysia.

Study on the Accident-causing of Foundation Pit Engineering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shuicheng, Tian; Xinyue, Zhang; Pengfei, Yang; Longgang, Chen

2018-05-01

With the development of high-rise buildings and underground space, a large number of foundation pit projects have occurred. Frequent accidents of it cause great losses to the society, how to reduce the frequency of pit accidents has become one of the most urgent problems to be solved. Therefore, analysing the influencing factors of foundation pit engineering accidents and studying the causes of foundation pit accidents, which of great significance for improving the safety management level of foundation pit engineering and reducing the incidence of foundation pit accidents. Firstly, based on literature review and questionnaires, this paper selected construction management, survey, design, construction, supervision and monitoring as research factors, we used the AHP method and the Dematel method to analyze the weights of various influencing factors to screen indicators to determine the ultimate system of accidents caused by foundation pit accidents; Secondly, SPSS 21.0 software was used to test the reliability and validity of the recovered questionnaire data. AMOS 7.0 software was used to fit, evaluate, and explain the set model; Finally, this paper analysed the influencing factors of foundation pit engineering accidents, corresponding management countermeasures and suggestions were put forward.

Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) Accident Tolerant Fuels High Impact Problem: Coordinate Multiscale U 3Si 2 Modeling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gamble, K. A.; Hales, J. D.; Miao, Y.

Since the events at the Fukushima-Daiichi nuclear power plant in March 2011 significant research has unfolded at national laboratories, universities and other institutions into alternative materials that have potential enhanced accident tolerance when compared to traditional \\uo~fuel zircaloy clad fuel rods. One of the potential replacement fuels is uranium silicide (\\usi) for its higher thermal conductivity and uranium density. The lower melting temperature is of potential concern during postulated accident conditions. Another disadvantage for \\usi~ is the lack of experimental data under power reactor conditions. Due to the aggressive development schedule for inserting some of the potential materials into leadmore » test assemblies or rods by 2022~\\cite{bragg-sitton_2014} multiscale multiphysics modeling approaches have been used to provide insight into these materials. \\\\ \

A Time Series Model for Assessing the Trend and Forecasting the Road Traffic Accident Mortality

PubMed Central

Yousefzadeh-Chabok, Shahrokh; Ranjbar-Taklimie, Fatemeh; Malekpouri, Reza; Razzaghi, Alireza

2016-01-01

Background Road traffic accident (RTA) is one of the main causes of trauma and known as a growing public health concern worldwide, especially in developing countries. Assessing the trend of fatalities in the past years and forecasting it enables us to make the appropriate planning for prevention and control. Objectives This study aimed to assess the trend of RTAs and forecast it in the next years by using time series modeling. Materials and Methods In this historical analytical study, the RTA mortalities in Zanjan Province, Iran, were evaluated during 2007 - 2013. The time series analyses including Box-Jenkins models were used to assess the trend of accident fatalities in previous years and forecast it for the next 4 years. Results The mean age of the victims was 37.22 years (SD = 20.01). From a total of 2571 deaths, 77.5% (n = 1992) were males and 22.5% (n = 579) were females. The study models showed a descending trend of fatalities in the study years. The SARIMA (1, 1, 3) (0, 1, 0) 12 model was recognized as a best fit model in forecasting the trend of fatalities. Forecasting model also showed a descending trend of traffic accident mortalities in the next 4 years. Conclusions There was a decreasing trend in the study and the future years. It seems that implementation of some interventions in the recent decade has had a positive effect on the decline of RTA fatalities. Nevertheless, there is still a need to pay more attention in order to prevent the occurrence and the mortalities related to traffic accidents. PMID:27800467

A Time Series Model for Assessing the Trend and Forecasting the Road Traffic Accident Mortality.

PubMed

Yousefzadeh-Chabok, Shahrokh; Ranjbar-Taklimie, Fatemeh; Malekpouri, Reza; Razzaghi, Alireza

2016-09-01

Road traffic accident (RTA) is one of the main causes of trauma and known as a growing public health concern worldwide, especially in developing countries. Assessing the trend of fatalities in the past years and forecasting it enables us to make the appropriate planning for prevention and control. This study aimed to assess the trend of RTAs and forecast it in the next years by using time series modeling. In this historical analytical study, the RTA mortalities in Zanjan Province, Iran, were evaluated during 2007 - 2013. The time series analyses including Box-Jenkins models were used to assess the trend of accident fatalities in previous years and forecast it for the next 4 years. The mean age of the victims was 37.22 years (SD = 20.01). From a total of 2571 deaths, 77.5% (n = 1992) were males and 22.5% (n = 579) were females. The study models showed a descending trend of fatalities in the study years. The SARIMA (1, 1, 3) (0, 1, 0) 12 model was recognized as a best fit model in forecasting the trend of fatalities. Forecasting model also showed a descending trend of traffic accident mortalities in the next 4 years. There was a decreasing trend in the study and the future years. It seems that implementation of some interventions in the recent decade has had a positive effect on the decline of RTA fatalities. Nevertheless, there is still a need to pay more attention in order to prevent the occurrence and the mortalities related to traffic accidents.

Modelling Accident Tolerant Fuel Concepts

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hales, Jason Dean; Gamble, Kyle Allan Lawrence

2016-05-01

The catastrophic events that occurred at the Fukushima-Daiichi nuclear power plant in 2011 have led to widespread interest in research of alternative fuels and claddings that are proposed to be accident tolerant. The United States Department of Energy (DOE) through its Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program has funded an Accident Tolerant Fuel (ATF) High Impact Problem (HIP). The ATF HIP is a three-year project to perform research on two accident tolerant concepts. The final outcome of the ATF HIP will be an in-depth report to the DOE Advanced Fuels Campaign (AFC) giving a recommendation on whether eithermore » of the two concepts should be included in their lead test assembly scheduled for placement into a commercial reactor in 2022. The two ATF concepts under investigation in the HIP are uranium silicide fuel and iron-chromium-aluminum (FeCrAl) alloy cladding. Utilizing the expertise of three national laboratory participants (Idaho National Laboratory, Los Alamos National Laboratory, and Argonne National Laboratory), a comprehensive multiscale approach to modeling is being used that includes atomistic modeling, molecular dynamics, rate theory, phase-field, and fuel performance simulations. Model development and fuel performance analysis are critical since a full suite of experimental studies will not be complete before AFC must prioritize concepts for focused development. In this paper, we present simulations of the two proposed accident tolerance fuel systems: U3Si2 fuel with Zircaloy-4 cladding, and UO2 fuel with FeCrAl cladding. Sensitivity analyses are completed using Sandia National Laboratories’ Dakota software to determine which input parameters (e.g., fuel specific heat) have the greatest influence on the output metrics of interest (e.g., fuel centerline temperature). We also outline the multiscale modelling approach being employed. Considerable additional work is required prior to preparing the recommendation report for the Advanced Fuels Campaign.« less

Development and validation of a human biomechanical model for rib fracture and thorax injuries in blunt impact.

PubMed

Cai, Zhihua; Lan, Fengchong; Chen, Jiqing

2015-07-01

From 1990 to approximately 50,000-120,000 people die annually of road traffic accidents in China. Traffic accidents are the main cause of death of Chinese adults aged 15-45 years. This study aimed to determine the biomechanical response and injury tolerance of the human body in traffic accidents. The subject was a 35-year-old male with a height of 170 cm, weight of 70 kg and Chinese characteristics at the 50th percentile. Geometry was generated by computed tomography and magnetic resonance imaging. A human-body biomechanical model was then developed. The model featured in great detail the main anatomical characteristics of skeletal tissues, soft tissues and internal organs, including the head, neck, shoulder, thoracic cage, abdomen, spine, pelvis, pleurae and lungs, heart, aorta, arms, legs, and other muscle tissues and skeletons. The material properties of all tissues in the human body model were obtained from the literature. Material properties were developed in the LS-DYNA code to simulate the mechanical behaviour of the biological tissues in the human body. The model was validated against cadaver responses to frontal and side impact. The predicted model response reasonably agreed with the experimental data, and the model can further be used to evaluate thoracic injury in real-world crashes. We believe that the transportation industry can use numerical models in the future to simultaneously reduce physical testing and improve automotive safety.

Policy mapping for establishing a national emergency health policy for Nigeria

PubMed Central

Aliyu, Zakari Y

2002-01-01

Background The number of potential life years lost due to accidents and injuries though poorly studied has resulted in tremendous economic and social loss to Nigeria. Numerous socio-cultural, economic and political factors including the current epidemic of ethnic and religious conflicts act in concert in predisposing to and enabling the ongoing catastrophe of accident and injuries in Nigeria. Methods Using the "policymaker", Microsoft-Windows® based software, the information generated on accidents and injuries and emergency health care in Nigeria from literature review, content analysis of relevant documents, expert interviewing and consensus opinion, a model National Emergency Health Policy was designed and analyzed. A major point of analysis for the policy is the current political feasibility of the policy including its opportunities and obstacles in the country. Results A model National Emergency Health Policy with policy goals, objectives, programs and evaluation benchmarks was generated. Critical analyses of potential policy problems, associated multiple players, diverging interests and implementation guidelines were developed. Conclusions "Political health modeling" a term proposed here would be invaluable to policy makers and scholars in developing countries in assessing the political feasibility of policy managing. Political modeling applied to the development of a NEHP in Nigeria would empower policy makers and the policy making process and would ensure a sustainable emergency health policy in Nigeria. PMID:12181080

Heat up and failure of BWR upper internals during a severe accident

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Robb, Kevin R.

In boiling water reactors, the shroud dome, separators, and dryers above the core are made of approximately 100,000 kg of stainless steel. During a severe accident in which the coolant boils away and exothermic oxidation of zirconium occurs, gases (steam and hydrogen) are superheated in the core region and pass through the upper internals. In this scenario, the upper internals can also be heated by thermal radiation from the hot degrading core. Historically, models of the upper internals have been relatively simple in severe accident codes. The upper internals are typically modeled in MELCOR as two lumped volumes with simplifiedmore » heat transfer characteristics and no structural integrity considerations, and with limited ability to oxidize, melt, and relocate. The potential for and the subsequent impact of the upper internals to heat up, oxidize, fail, and relocate during a severe accident was investigated. A higher fidelity representation of the shroud dome, steam separators, and steam driers was developed in MELCOR v1.8.6 by extending the core region upwards. The MELCOR modeling effort entailed adding 45 additional core cells and control volumes, 98 flow paths, and numerous control functions. The model accounts for the mechanical loading and structural integrity, oxidation, melting, flow area blockage, and relocation of the various components. Consistent with a previous study, the results indicate that the upper internals can reach high temperatures during a severe accident sufficient to lose their structural integrity and relocate. Finally, the additional 100 metric tons of stainless steel debris influences the subsequent in-vessel and ex-vessel accident progression.« less

Heat up and failure of BWR upper internals during a severe accident

DOE PAGES

Robb, Kevin R.

2017-02-21

In boiling water reactors, the shroud dome, separators, and dryers above the core are made of approximately 100,000 kg of stainless steel. During a severe accident in which the coolant boils away and exothermic oxidation of zirconium occurs, gases (steam and hydrogen) are superheated in the core region and pass through the upper internals. In this scenario, the upper internals can also be heated by thermal radiation from the hot degrading core. Historically, models of the upper internals have been relatively simple in severe accident codes. The upper internals are typically modeled in MELCOR as two lumped volumes with simplifiedmore » heat transfer characteristics and no structural integrity considerations, and with limited ability to oxidize, melt, and relocate. The potential for and the subsequent impact of the upper internals to heat up, oxidize, fail, and relocate during a severe accident was investigated. A higher fidelity representation of the shroud dome, steam separators, and steam driers was developed in MELCOR v1.8.6 by extending the core region upwards. The MELCOR modeling effort entailed adding 45 additional core cells and control volumes, 98 flow paths, and numerous control functions. The model accounts for the mechanical loading and structural integrity, oxidation, melting, flow area blockage, and relocation of the various components. Consistent with a previous study, the results indicate that the upper internals can reach high temperatures during a severe accident sufficient to lose their structural integrity and relocate. Finally, the additional 100 metric tons of stainless steel debris influences the subsequent in-vessel and ex-vessel accident progression.« less

Risk-Based Fire Safety Experiment Definition for Manned Spacecraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Apostolakis, G. E.; Ho, V. S.; Marcus, E.; Perry, A. T.; Thompson, S. L.

1989-01-01

Risk methodology is used to define experiments to be conducted in space which will help to construct and test the models required for accident sequence identification. The development of accident scenarios is based on the realization that whether damage occurs depends on the time competition of two processes: the ignition and creation of an adverse environment, and the detection and suppression activities. If the fire grows and causes damage faster than it is detected and suppressed, then an accident occurred. The proposed integrated experiments will provide information on individual models that apply to each of the above processes, as well as previously unidentified interactions and processes, if any. Initially, models that are used in terrestrial fire risk assessments are considered. These include heat and smoke release models, detection and suppression models, as well as damage models. In cases where the absence of gravity substantially invalidates a model, alternate models will be developed. Models that depend on buoyancy effects, such as the multizone compartment fire models, are included in these cases. The experiments will be performed in a variety of geometries simulating habitable areas, racks, and other spaces. These simulations will necessitate theoretical studies of scaling effects. Sensitivity studies will also be carried out including the effects of varying oxygen concentrations, pressures, fuel orientation and geometry, and air flow rates. The experimental apparatus described herein includes three major modules: the combustion, the fluids, and the command and power modules.

Development of an Accident Reproduction Simulator System Using a Hemodialysis Extracorporeal Circulation System.

PubMed

Nishite, Yoshiaki; Takesawa, Shingo

2016-01-01

Accidents that occur during dialysis treatment are notified to the medical staff via alarms raised by the dialysis apparatus. Similar to such real accidents, apparatus activation or accidents can be reproduced by simulating a treatment situation. An alarm that corresponds to such accidents can be utilized in the simulation model. The aim of this study was to create an extracorporeal circulation system (hereinafter, the circulation system) for dialysis machines so that it sets off five types of alarms for: 1) decreased arterial pressure, 2) increased arterial pressure, 3) decreased venous pressure, 4) increased venous pressure, and 5) blood leakage, according to the five types of accidents chosen based on their frequency of occurrence and the degree of severity. In order to verify the alarm from the dialysis apparatus connected to the circulation system and the accident corresponding to it, an evaluation of the alarm for its reproducibility of an accident was performed under normal treatment circumstances. The method involved testing whether the dialysis apparatus raised the desired alarm from the moment of control of the circulation system, and measuring the time it took until the desired alarm was activated. This was tested on five main models from four dialyzer manufacturers that are currently used in Japan. The results of the tests demonstrated successful activation of the alarms by the dialysis apparatus, which were appropriate for each of the five types of accidents. The time between the control of the circulatory system to the alarm signal was as follows, 1) venous pressure lower limit alarm: 7 seconds; 2) venous pressure lower limit: 8 seconds; 3) venous pressure upper limit: 7 seconds; 4) venous pressure lower limit alarm: 2 seconds; and 5) blood leakage alarm: 19 seconds. All alarms were set off in under 20 seconds. Thus, we can conclude that a simulator system using an extracorporeal circulation system can be set to different models of dialyzers, and that the reproduced treatment scenarios can be used for simulation training.

Fukushima Daiichi Unit 1 Accident Progression Uncertainty Analysis and Implications for Decommissioning of Fukushima Reactors - Volume I.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gauntt, Randall O.; Mattie, Patrick D.

Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) has conducted an uncertainty analysis (UA) on the Fukushima Daiichi unit (1F1) accident progression with the MELCOR code. The model used was developed for a previous accident reconstruction investigation jointly sponsored by the US Department of Energy (DOE) and Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). That study focused on reconstructing the accident progressions, as postulated by the limited plant data. This work was focused evaluation of uncertainty in core damage progression behavior and its effect on key figures-of-merit (e.g., hydrogen production, reactor damage state, fraction of intact fuel, vessel lower head failure). The primary intent of this studymore » was to characterize the range of predicted damage states in the 1F1 reactor considering state of knowledge uncertainties associated with MELCOR modeling of core damage progression and to generate information that may be useful in informing the decommissioning activities that will be employed to defuel the damaged reactors at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant. Additionally, core damage progression variability inherent in MELCOR modeling numerics is investigated.« less

BNL severe-accident sequence experiments and analysis program. [PWR; BWR

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Greene, G.A.; Ginsberg, T.; Tutu, N.K.

1983-01-01

In the analysis of degraded core accidents, the two major sources of pressure loading on light water reactor containments are: steam generation from core debris-water thermal interactions; and molten core-concrete interactions. Experiments are in progress at BNL in support of analytical model development related to aspects of the above containment loading mechanisms. The work supports development and evaluation of the CORCON (Muir, 1981) and MARCH (Wooton, 1980) computer codes. Progress in the two programs is described.

DIANA: A multi-phase, multi-component hydrodynamic model for the analysis of severe accidents in heavy water reactors with multiple-tube assemblies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tentner, A.M.

1994-03-01

A detailed hydrodynamic fuel relocation model has been developed for the analysis of severe accidents in Heavy Water Reactors with multiple-tube Assemblies. This model describes the Fuel Disruption and Relocation inside a nuclear fuel assembly and is designated by the acronym DIANA. DIANA solves the transient hydrodynamic equations for all the moving materials in the core and treats all the relevant flow regimes. The numerical solution techniques and some of the physical models included in DIANA have been developed taking advantage of the extensive experience accumulated in the development and validation of the LEVITATE (1) fuel relocation model of SAS4Amore » [2, 3]. The model is designed to handle the fuel and cladding relocation in both voided and partially voided channels. It is able to treat a wide range of thermal/ hydraulic/neutronic conditions and the presence of various flow regimes at different axial locations within the same hydrodynamic channel.« less

Quantifying the risk of extreme aviation accidents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Das, Kumer Pial; Dey, Asim Kumer

2016-12-01

Air travel is considered a safe means of transportation. But when aviation accidents do occur they often result in fatalities. Fortunately, the most extreme accidents occur rarely. However, 2014 was the deadliest year in the past decade causing 111 plane crashes, and among them worst four crashes cause 298, 239, 162 and 116 deaths. In this study, we want to assess the risk of the catastrophic aviation accidents by studying historical aviation accidents. Applying a generalized Pareto model we predict the maximum fatalities from an aviation accident in future. The fitted model is compared with some of its competitive models. The uncertainty in the inferences are quantified using simulated aviation accident series, generated by bootstrap resampling and Monte Carlo simulations.

United States Department of Energy severe accident research following the Fukushima Daiichi accidents

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Farmer, M. T.; Corradini, M.; Rempe, J.

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has played a major role in the U.S. response to the events at Fukushima Daiichi. During the first several weeks following the accident, U.S. assistance efforts were guided by results from a significant and diverse set of analyses. In the months that followed, a coordinated analysis activity aimed at gaining a more thorough understanding of the accident sequence was completed using laboratory-developed, system-level best-estimate accident analysis codes, while a parallel analysis was conducted by U.S. industry. A comparison of predictions for Unit 1 from these two studies indicated significant differences between MAAP and MELCORmore » results for key plant parameters, such as in-core hydrogen production. On that basis, a crosswalk was completed to determine the key modeling variations that led to these differences. In parallel with these activities, it became clear that there was a need to perform a technology gap evaluation on accident-tolerant components and severe accident analysis methodologies with the goal of identifying any data and/or knowledge gaps that may exist given the current state of light water reactor (LWR) severe accident research and augmented by insights from Fukushima. In addition, there is growing international recognition that data from Fukushima could significantly reduce uncertainties related to severe accident progression, particularly for boiling water reactors. On these bases, a group of U. S. experts in LWR safety and plant operations was convened by the DOE Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE) to complete technology gap analysis and Fukushima forensics data needs identification activities. The results from these activities were used as the basis for refining DOE-NE's severe accident research and development (R&D) plan. Finally, this paper provides a high-level review of DOE-sponsored R&D efforts in these areas, including planned activities on accident-tolerant components and accident analysis methods.« less

United States Department of Energy severe accident research following the Fukushima Daiichi accidents

DOE PAGES

Farmer, M. T.; Corradini, M.; Rempe, J.; ...

2016-11-02

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has played a major role in the U.S. response to the events at Fukushima Daiichi. During the first several weeks following the accident, U.S. assistance efforts were guided by results from a significant and diverse set of analyses. In the months that followed, a coordinated analysis activity aimed at gaining a more thorough understanding of the accident sequence was completed using laboratory-developed, system-level best-estimate accident analysis codes, while a parallel analysis was conducted by U.S. industry. A comparison of predictions for Unit 1 from these two studies indicated significant differences between MAAP and MELCORmore » results for key plant parameters, such as in-core hydrogen production. On that basis, a crosswalk was completed to determine the key modeling variations that led to these differences. In parallel with these activities, it became clear that there was a need to perform a technology gap evaluation on accident-tolerant components and severe accident analysis methodologies with the goal of identifying any data and/or knowledge gaps that may exist given the current state of light water reactor (LWR) severe accident research and augmented by insights from Fukushima. In addition, there is growing international recognition that data from Fukushima could significantly reduce uncertainties related to severe accident progression, particularly for boiling water reactors. On these bases, a group of U. S. experts in LWR safety and plant operations was convened by the DOE Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE) to complete technology gap analysis and Fukushima forensics data needs identification activities. The results from these activities were used as the basis for refining DOE-NE's severe accident research and development (R&D) plan. Finally, this paper provides a high-level review of DOE-sponsored R&D efforts in these areas, including planned activities on accident-tolerant components and accident analysis methods.« less

Identification of the actual state and entity availability forecasting in power engineering using neural-network technologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Protalinsky, O. M.; Shcherbatov, I. A.; Stepanov, P. V.

2017-11-01

A growing number of severe accidents in RF call for the need to develop a system that could prevent emergency situations. In a number of cases accident rate is stipulated by careless inspections and neglects in developing repair programs. Across the country rates of accidents are growing because of a so-called “human factor”. In this regard, there has become urgent the problem of identification of the actual state of technological facilities in power engineering using data on engineering processes running and applying artificial intelligence methods. The present work comprises four model states of manufacturing equipment of engineering companies: defect, failure, preliminary situation, accident. Defect evaluation is carried out using both data from SCADA and ASEPCR and qualitative information (verbal assessments of experts in subject matter, photo- and video materials of surveys processed using pattern recognition methods in order to satisfy the requirements). Early identification of defects makes possible to predict the failure of manufacturing equipment using mathematical techniques of artificial neural network. In its turn, this helps to calculate predicted characteristics of reliability of engineering facilities using methods of reliability theory. Calculation of the given parameters provides the real-time estimation of remaining service life of manufacturing equipment for the whole operation period. The neural networks model allows evaluating possibility of failure of a piece of equipment consistent with types of actual defects and their previous reasons. The article presents the grounds for a choice of training and testing samples for the developed neural network, evaluates the adequacy of the neural networks model, and shows how the model can be used to forecast equipment failure. There have been carried out simulating experiments using a computer and retrospective samples of actual values for power engineering companies. The efficiency of the developed model for different types of manufacturing equipment has been proved. There have been offered other research areas in terms of the presented subject matter.

Optimizing the recovery efficiency of Finnish oil combating vessels in the Gulf of Finland using Bayesian Networks.

PubMed

Lehikoinen, Annukka; Luoma, Emilia; Mäntyniemi, Samu; Kuikka, Sakari

2013-02-19

Oil transport has greatly increased in the Gulf of Finland over the years, and risks of an oil accident occurring have risen. Thus, an effective oil combating strategy is needed. We developed a Bayesian Network (BN) to examine the recovery efficiency and optimal disposition of the Finnish oil combating vessels in the Gulf of Finland (GoF), Eastern Baltic Sea. Four alternative home harbors, five accident points, and ten oil combating vessels were included in the model to find the optimal disposition policy that would maximize the recovery efficiency. With this composition, the placement of the oil combating vessels seems not to have a significant effect on the recovery efficiency. The process seems to be strongly controlled by certain random factors independent of human action, e.g. wave height and stranding time of the oil. Therefore, the success of oil combating is rather uncertain, so it is also important to develop activities that aim for preventing accidents. We found that the model developed is suitable for this type of multidecision optimization. The methodology, results, and practices are further discussed.

Systems thinking, the Swiss Cheese Model and accident analysis: a comparative systemic analysis of the Grayrigg train derailment using the ATSB, AcciMap and STAMP models.

PubMed

Underwood, Peter; Waterson, Patrick

2014-07-01

The Swiss Cheese Model (SCM) is the most popular accident causation model and is widely used throughout various industries. A debate exists in the research literature over whether the SCM remains a viable tool for accident analysis. Critics of the model suggest that it provides a sequential, oversimplified view of accidents. Conversely, proponents suggest that it embodies the concepts of systems theory, as per the contemporary systemic analysis techniques. The aim of this paper was to consider whether the SCM can provide a systems thinking approach and remain a viable option for accident analysis. To achieve this, the train derailment at Grayrigg was analysed with an SCM-based model (the ATSB accident investigation model) and two systemic accident analysis methods (AcciMap and STAMP). The analysis outputs and usage of the techniques were compared. The findings of the study showed that each model applied the systems thinking approach. However, the ATSB model and AcciMap graphically presented their findings in a more succinct manner, whereas STAMP more clearly embodied the concepts of systems theory. The study suggests that, whilst the selection of an analysis method is subject to trade-offs that practitioners and researchers must make, the SCM remains a viable model for accident analysis. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

MARTINS: A foam/film flow model for molten material relocation in HWRs with U-Al-fueled multi-tube assemblies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kalimullah

1994-03-01

Some special purpose heavy-water reactors (EM) are made of assemblies consisting of a number of coaxial aluminum-clad U-Al alloy fuel tubes and an outer Al sleeve surrounding the fuel tubes. The heavy water coolant flows in the annular gaps between the circular tubes. Analysis of severe accidents in such reactors requires a model for predicting the behavior of the fuel tubes as they melt and disrupt. This paper describes a detailed, mechanistic model for fuel tube heatup, melting, freezing, and molten material relocation, called MARTINS (Melting and Relocation of Tubes in Nuclear subassembly). The paper presents the modeling of themore » phenomena in MARTINS, and an application of the model to analysis of a reactivity insertion accident. Some models are being developed to compute gradual downward relocation of molten material at decay-heat power levels via candling along intact tubes, neglecting coolant vapor hydrodynamic forces on molten material. These models are inadequate for high power accident sequences involving significant hydrodynamic forces. These forces are included in MARTINS.« less

[Trends in traffic accident mortality in Spain, 1962-1994].

PubMed

Redondo Calderón, J; Luna Del Castillo, J D; Jiménez Moleón, J J; Lardelli Claret, P; Gálvez Vargas, R

2000-01-01

To assess the evolution of the traffic accident mortality rate in Spain from 1962 to 1994, and the role played by its four theoretical components: motorization index (vehicles/population), accidentability index (accidents/vehicles), harmfulness index (victims/accidents) and fatality index (deaths/victims). Data from the National Population Census and the Bulletin of the Dirección General de Tráfico were collected to estimate the above mentioned indicators for all accidents and accidents in road and urban zones. Simple and multiple partial correlation coefficients among variables were calculated. Poisson regression models were also obtained. An increasing trend during the whole period was observed for the national traffic accident mortality rate, especially from 1982 to 1989 in the younger age groups, followed by a decrease since 1990. The aforementioned four components were significatively associated with the mortality rate. The strength of this association was especially high for the motorization index and for the harmfulness index when all accidents and road accidents were considered. For urban accidents, the fatality index rate is the component most strongly associated with mortality rate. The role played by the accidentability index in the magnitude of the mortality rate seems less important. The growing exposure rate to traffic accidents observed in Spain (measured by the motorization index) is not directly influenced by public heath strategies. Therefore, it seems advisable to emphasize the development of measures focused to control the other three components of traffic accident mortality rate, especially those related with harmfulness and fatality.

ADAM: An Accident Diagnostic,Analysis and Management System - Applications to Severe Accident Simulation and Management

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zavisca, M.J.; Khatib-Rahbar, M.; Esmaili, H.

2002-07-01

The Accident Diagnostic, Analysis and Management (ADAM) computer code has been developed as a tool for on-line applications to accident diagnostics, simulation, management and training. ADAM's severe accident simulation capabilities incorporate a balance of mechanistic, phenomenologically based models with simple parametric approaches for elements including (but not limited to) thermal hydraulics; heat transfer; fuel heatup, meltdown, and relocation; fission product release and transport; combustible gas generation and combustion; and core-concrete interaction. The overall model is defined by a relatively coarse spatial nodalization of the reactor coolant and containment systems and is advanced explicitly in time. The result is to enablemore » much faster than real time (i.e., 100 to 1000 times faster than real time on a personal computer) applications to on-line investigations and/or accident management training. Other features of the simulation module include provision for activation of water injection, including the Engineered Safety Features, as well as other mechanisms for the assessment of accident management and recovery strategies and the evaluation of PSA success criteria. The accident diagnostics module of ADAM uses on-line access to selected plant parameters (as measured by plant sensors) to compute the thermodynamic state of the plant, and to predict various margins to safety (e.g., times to pressure vessel saturation and steam generator dryout). Rule-based logic is employed to classify the measured data as belonging to one of a number of likely scenarios based on symptoms, and a number of 'alarms' are generated to signal the state of the reactor and containment. This paper will address the features and limitations of ADAM with particular focus on accident simulation and management. (authors)« less

Developing techniques for cause-responsibility analysis of occupational accidents.

PubMed

Jabbari, Mousa; Ghorbani, Roghayeh

2016-11-01

The aim of this study was to specify the causes of occupational accidents, determine social responsibility and the role of groups involved in work-related accidents. This study develops occupational accidents causes tree, occupational accidents responsibility tree, and occupational accidents component-responsibility analysis worksheet; based on these methods, it develops cause-responsibility analysis (CRA) techniques, and for testing them, analyzes 100 fatal/disabling occupational accidents in the construction setting that were randomly selected from all the work-related accidents in Tehran, Iran, over a 5-year period (2010-2014). The main result of this study involves two techniques for CRA: occupational accidents tree analysis (OATA) and occupational accidents components analysis (OACA), used in parallel for determination of responsible groups and responsibilities rate. From the results, we find that the management group of construction projects has 74.65% responsibility of work-related accidents. The developed techniques are purposeful for occupational accidents investigation/analysis, especially for the determination of detailed list of tasks, responsibilities, and their rates. Therefore, it is useful for preventing work-related accidents by focusing on the responsible group's duties. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Willingness to use safety belt and levels of injury in car accidents.

PubMed

de Lapparent, Matthieu

2008-05-01

In this article, we develop a bivariate ordered Probit model to analyze the decision to fasten the safety belt in a car and the resulting severity of accidents if it happens. The approach takes into account the fact that the decision to fasten the safety belt has a direct causal effect on the category of injury if an accident happens. Our application to a sample drawn from the database of French accident reports in 2003 for three populations of car users (drivers, front passengers, rear passengers) shows that fastening the safety belt is significantly related to a decrease in severe injuries but it shows also that these car users compensate partly for this safety benefit. Furthermore, it is observed that demographic characteristics of car users, as well as transport facilities, play important roles in decisions to fasten safety belts and in the eventual resulting accident injuries.

The impact of various work schedules on sleep complaints and minor accidents during work or leisure time: evidence from a national survey.

PubMed

Chiu, Hsiao-Yean; Tsai, Pei-Shan

2013-03-01

To explore the prevalence of insomnia symptoms and excessive daytime sleepiness (EDS) in different work schedules and the impact of shift schedules on the risk of minor accidents during work or leisure time. Using the data from Taiwan Social Development Trend Survey in 2005 (n = 18,794), insomnia symptoms, EDS, and minor accidents were analyzed using descriptive statistics and multivariable logistic regression model. The evening-to-night group had significantly higher prevalence rates of insomnia symptoms. Higher prevalence rate of EDS was presented in both day-to-evening and evening-to-night groups. Adjusting for confounders, the day-to-evening shift had a higher odds ratio of minor accidents as compared with the fixed daytime workers. Extended-shift workers tend to experience insomnia symptoms and EDS and have an increased likelihood of minor accidents.

Latent class analysis of accident risks in usage-based insurance: Evidence from Beijing.

PubMed

Jin, Wen; Deng, Yinglu; Jiang, Hai; Xie, Qianyan; Shen, Wei; Han, Weijian

2018-06-01

Car insurance is quickly becoming a big data industry, with usage-based insurance (UBI) poised to potentially change the business of insurance. Telematics data, which are transmitted from wireless devices in car, are widely used in UBI to obtain individual-level travel and driving characteristics. While most existing studies have introduced telematics data into car insurance pricing, the telematics-related characteristics are directly obtained from the raw data. In this study, we propose to quantify drivers' familiarity with their driving routes and develop models to quantify drivers' accident risks using the telematics data. In addition, we build a latent class model to study the heterogeneity in travel and driving styles based on the telematics data, which has not been investigated in literature. Our main results include: (1) the improvement to the model fit is statistically significant by adding telematics-related characteristics; (2) drivers' familiarity with their driving trips is critical to identify high risk drivers, and the relationship between drivers' familiarity and accident risks is non-linear; (3) the drivers can be classified into two classes, where the first class is the low risk class with 0.54% of its drivers reporting accidents, and the second class is the high risk class with 20.66% of its drivers reporting accidents; and (4) for the low risk class, drivers with high probability of reporting accidents can be identified by travel-behavior-related characteristics, while for the high risk class, they can be identified by driving-behavior-related characteristics. The driver's familiarity will affect the probability of reporting accidents for both classes. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Discussion on accuracy degree evaluation of accident velocity reconstruction model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zou, Tiefang; Dai, Yingbiao; Cai, Ming; Liu, Jike

In order to investigate the applicability of accident velocity reconstruction model in different cases, a method used to evaluate accuracy degree of accident velocity reconstruction model is given. Based on pre-crash velocity in theory and calculation, an accuracy degree evaluation formula is obtained. With a numerical simulation case, Accuracy degrees and applicability of two accident velocity reconstruction models are analyzed; results show that this method is feasible in practice.

An analysis of urban collisions using an artificial intelligence model.

PubMed

Mussone, L; Ferrari, A; Oneta, M

1999-11-01

Traditional studies on road accidents estimate the effect of variables (such as vehicular flows, road geometry, vehicular characteristics), and the calculation of the number of accidents. A descriptive statistical analysis of the accidents (those used in the model) over the period 1992-1995 is proposed. The paper describes an alternative method based on the use of artificial neural networks (ANN) in order to work out a model that relates to the analysis of vehicular accidents in Milan. The degree of danger of urban intersections using different scenarios is quantified by the ANN model. Methodology is the first result, which allows us to tackle the modelling of urban vehicular accidents by the innovative use of ANN. Other results deal with model outputs: intersection complexity may determine a higher accident index depending on the regulation of intersection. The highest index for running over of pedestrian occurs at non-signalised intersections at night-time.

Association between Daily Hospital Outpatient Visits for Accidents and Daily Ambient Air Temperatures in an Industrial City.

PubMed

Chau, Tang-Tat; Wang, Kuo-Ying

2016-01-01

An accident is an unwanted hazard to a person. However, accidents occur. In this work, we search for correlations between daily accident rates and environmental factors. To study daily hospital outpatients who were admitted for accidents during a 5-year period, 2007-2011, we analyzed data regarding 168,366 outpatients using univariate regression models; we also used multivariable regression models to account for confounding factors. Our analysis indicates that the number of male outpatients admitted for accidents was approximately 1.31 to 1.47 times the number of female outpatients (P < 0.0001). Of the 12 parameters (regarding air pollution and meteorology) considered, only daily temperature exhibited consistent and significant correlations with the daily number of hospital outpatient visits for accidents throughout the 5-year analysis period. The univariate regression models indicate that older people (greater than 66 years old) had the fewest accidents per 1-degree increase in temperature, followed by young people (0-15 years old). Middle-aged people (16-65 years old) were the group of outpatients that were more prone to accidents, with an increase in accident rates of 0.8-1.2 accidents per degree increase in temperature. The multivariable regression models also reveal that the temperature variation was the dominant factor in determining the daily number of outpatient visits for accidents. Our further multivariable model analysis of temperature with respect to air pollution variables show that, through the increases in emissions and concentrations of CO, photochemical O3 production and NO2 loss in the ambient air, increases in vehicular emissions are associated with increases in temperatures. As such, increases in hospital visits for accidents are related to vehicular emissions and usage. This finding is consistent with clinical experience which shows about 60% to 80% of accidents are related to traffic, followed by accidents occurred in work place.

Association between Daily Hospital Outpatient Visits for Accidents and Daily Ambient Air Temperatures in an Industrial City

PubMed Central

Chau, Tang-Tat; Wang, Kuo-Ying

2016-01-01

An accident is an unwanted hazard to a person. However, accidents occur. In this work, we search for correlations between daily accident rates and environmental factors. To study daily hospital outpatients who were admitted for accidents during a 5-year period, 2007–2011, we analyzed data regarding 168,366 outpatients using univariate regression models; we also used multivariable regression models to account for confounding factors. Our analysis indicates that the number of male outpatients admitted for accidents was approximately 1.31 to 1.47 times the number of female outpatients (P < 0.0001). Of the 12 parameters (regarding air pollution and meteorology) considered, only daily temperature exhibited consistent and significant correlations with the daily number of hospital outpatient visits for accidents throughout the 5-year analysis period. The univariate regression models indicate that older people (greater than 66 years old) had the fewest accidents per 1-degree increase in temperature, followed by young people (0–15 years old). Middle-aged people (16–65 years old) were the group of outpatients that were more prone to accidents, with an increase in accident rates of 0.8–1.2 accidents per degree increase in temperature. The multivariable regression models also reveal that the temperature variation was the dominant factor in determining the daily number of outpatient visits for accidents. Our further multivariable model analysis of temperature with respect to air pollution variables show that, through the increases in emissions and concentrations of CO, photochemical O3 production and NO2 loss in the ambient air, increases in vehicular emissions are associated with increases in temperatures. As such, increases in hospital visits for accidents are related to vehicular emissions and usage. This finding is consistent with clinical experience which shows about 60% to 80% of accidents are related to traffic, followed by accidents occurred in work place. PMID:26815039

Random parameter models for accident prediction on two-lane undivided highways in India.

PubMed

Dinu, R R; Veeraragavan, A

2011-02-01

Generalized linear modeling (GLM), with the assumption of Poisson or negative binomial error structure, has been widely employed in road accident modeling. A number of explanatory variables related to traffic, road geometry, and environment that contribute to accident occurrence have been identified and accident prediction models have been proposed. The accident prediction models reported in literature largely employ the fixed parameter modeling approach, where the magnitude of influence of an explanatory variable is considered to be fixed for any observation in the population. Similar models have been proposed for Indian highways too, which include additional variables representing traffic composition. The mixed traffic on Indian highways comes with a lot of variability within, ranging from difference in vehicle types to variability in driver behavior. This could result in variability in the effect of explanatory variables on accidents across locations. Random parameter models, which can capture some of such variability, are expected to be more appropriate for the Indian situation. The present study is an attempt to employ random parameter modeling for accident prediction on two-lane undivided rural highways in India. Three years of accident history, from nearly 200 km of highway segments, is used to calibrate and validate the models. The results of the analysis suggest that the model coefficients for traffic volume, proportion of cars, motorized two-wheelers and trucks in traffic, and driveway density and horizontal and vertical curvatures are randomly distributed across locations. The paper is concluded with a discussion on modeling results and the limitations of the present study. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Research subjects for analytical estimation of core degradation at Fukushima-Daiichi nuclear power plant

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nagase, F.; Ishikawa, J.; Kurata, M.

2013-07-01

Estimation of the accident progress and status inside the pressure vessels (RPV) and primary containment vessels (PCV) is required for appropriate conductance of decommissioning in the Fukushima-Daiichi NPP. For that, it is necessary to obtain additional experimental data and revised models for the estimation using computer codes with increased accuracies. The Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA) has selected phenomena to be reviewed and developed, considering previously obtained information, conditions specific to the Fukushima-Daiichi NPP accident, and recent progress of experimental and analytical technologies. As a result, research and development items have been picked up in terms of thermal-hydraulic behavior inmore » the RPV and PCV, progression of fuel bundle degradation, failure of the lower head of RPV, and analysis of the accident. This paper introduces the selected phenomena to be reviewed and developed, research plans and recent results from the JAEA's corresponding research programs. (authors)« less

Simulation Modeling Requirements for Loss-of-Control Accident Prevention of Turboprop Transport Aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crider, Dennis; Foster, John V.

2012-01-01

In-flight loss of control remains the leading contributor to aviation accident fatalities, with stall upsets being the leading causal factor. The February 12, 2009. Colgan Air, Inc., Continental Express flight 3407 accident outside Buffalo, New York, brought this issue to the forefront of public consciousness and resulted in recommendations from the National Transportation Safety Board to conduct training that incorporates stalls that are fully developed and develop simulator standards to support such training. In 2010, Congress responded to this accident with Public Law 11-216 (Section 208), which mandates full stall training for Part 121 flight operations. Efforts are currently in progress to develop recommendations on implementation of stall training for airline pilots. The International Committee on Aviation Training in Extended Envelopes (ICATEE) is currently defining simulator fidelity standards that will be necessary for effective stall training. These recommendations will apply to all civil transport aircraft including straight-wing turboprop aircraft. Government-funded research over the previous decade provides a strong foundation for stall/post-stall simulation for swept-wing, conventional tail jets to respond to this mandate, but turboprops present additional and unique modeling challenges. First among these challenges is the effect of power, which can provide enhanced flow attachment behind the propellers. Furthermore, turboprops tend to operate for longer periods in an environment more susceptible to ice. As a result, there have been a significant number of turboprop accidents as a result of the early (lower angle of attack) stalls in icing. The vulnerability of turboprop configurations to icing has led to studies on ice accumulation and the resulting effects on flight behavior. Piloted simulations of these effects have highlighted the important training needs for recognition and mitigation of icing effects, including the reduction of stall margins. This paper addresses simulation modeling requirements that are unique to turboprop transport aircraft and highlights the growing need for aerodynamic models suitable for stall training for these configurations. A review of prominent accidents that involved aerodynamic stall is used to illustrate various modeling features unique to turboprop configurations and the impact of stall behavior on susceptibility to loss of control that has led to new training requirements. This is followed by an overview of stability and control behavior of straight-wing turboprops, the related aerodynamic characteristics, and a summary of recent experimental studies on icing effects. In addition, differences in flight dynamics behavior between swept-wing jets and straight-wing turboprop configurations are discussed to compare and contrast modeling requirements. Specific recommendations for aerodynamic models along with further research needs and data measurements are also provided. 1

Engine Non-Containment: The UK CAA View

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gunstone, G. L.

1977-01-01

Airworthiness accidents account for roughly one quarter of the total number of accidents to public transport turbojet aircraft. The most reliable, practicable, and cost-effective means of minimizing damage outside the confines of the nacelle is to make the aircraft design invulnerable to any debris which may affect the aircraft. A failure model was developed for use by aircraft builders in measuring the freedom from catastrophe factor of their design.

Current and anticipated use of thermal-hydraulic codes for BWR transient and accident analyses in Japan

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Arai, Kenji; Ebata, Shigeo

1997-07-01

This paper summarizes the current and anticipated use of the thermal-hydraulic and neutronic codes for the BWR transient and accident analyses in Japan. The codes may be categorized into the licensing codes and the best estimate codes for the BWR transient and accident analyses. Most of the licensing codes have been originally developed by General Electric. Some codes have been updated based on the technical knowledge obtained in the thermal hydraulic study in Japan, and according to the BWR design changes. The best estimates codes have been used to support the licensing calculations and to obtain the phenomenological understanding ofmore » the thermal hydraulic phenomena during a BWR transient or accident. The best estimate codes can be also applied to a design study for a next generation BWR to which the current licensing model may not be directly applied. In order to rationalize the margin included in the current BWR design and develop a next generation reactor with appropriate design margin, it will be required to improve the accuracy of the thermal-hydraulic and neutronic model. In addition, regarding the current best estimate codes, the improvement in the user interface and the numerics will be needed.« less

Bus accident analysis of routes with/without bus priority.

PubMed

Goh, Kelvin Chun Keong; Currie, Graham; Sarvi, Majid; Logan, David

2014-04-01

This paper summarises findings on road safety performance and bus-involved accidents in Melbourne along roads where bus priority measures had been applied. Results from an empirical analysis of the accident types revealed significant reduction in the proportion of accidents involving buses hitting stationary objects and vehicles, which suggests the effect of bus priority in addressing manoeuvrability issues for buses. A mixed-effects negative binomial (MENB) regression and back-propagation neural network (BPNN) modelling of bus accidents considering wider influences on accident rates at a route section level also revealed significant safety benefits when bus priority is provided. Sensitivity analyses done on the BPNN model showed general agreement in the predicted accident frequency between both models. The slightly better performance recorded by the MENB model results suggests merits in adopting a mixed effects modelling approach for accident count prediction in practice given its capability to account for unobserved location and time-specific factors. A major implication of this research is that bus priority in Melbourne's context acts to improve road safety and should be a major consideration for road management agencies when implementing bus priority and road schemes. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Application of the DG-1199 methodology to the ESBWR and ABWR.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kalinich, Donald A.; Gauntt, Randall O.; Walton, Fotini

2010-09-01

Appendix A-5 of Draft Regulatory Guide DG-1199 'Alternative Radiological Source Term for Evaluating Design Basis Accidents at Nuclear Power Reactors' provides guidance - applicable to RADTRAD MSIV leakage models - for scaling containment aerosol concentration to the expected steam dome concentration in order to preserve the simplified use of the Accident Source Term (AST) in assessing containment performance under assumed design basis accident (DBA) conditions. In this study Economic and Safe Boiling Water Reactor (ESBWR) and Advanced Boiling Water Reactor (ABWR) RADTRAD models are developed using the DG-1199, Appendix A-5 guidance. The models were run using RADTRAD v3.03. Low Populationmore » Zone (LPZ), control room (CR), and worst-case 2-hr Exclusion Area Boundary (EAB) doses were calculated and compared to the relevant accident dose criteria in 10 CFR 50.67. For the ESBWR, the dose results were all lower than the MSIV leakage doses calculated by General Electric/Hitachi (GEH) in their licensing technical report. There are no comparable ABWR MSIV leakage doses, however, it should be noted that the ABWR doses are lower than the ESBWR doses. In addition, sensitivity cases were evaluated to ascertain the influence/importance of key input parameters/features of the models.« less

Modeling when and where a secondary accident occurs.

PubMed

Wang, Junhua; Liu, Boya; Fu, Ting; Liu, Shuo; Stipancic, Joshua

2018-01-31

The occurrence of secondary accidents leads to traffic congestion and road safety issues. Secondary accident prevention has become a major consideration in traffic incident management. This paper investigates the location and time of a potential secondary accident after the occurrence of an initial traffic accident. With accident data and traffic loop data collected over three years from California interstate freeways, a shock wave-based method was introduced to identify secondary accidents. A linear regression model and two machine learning algorithms, including a back-propagation neural network (BPNN) and a least squares support vector machine (LSSVM), were implemented to explore the distance and time gap between the initial and secondary accidents using inputs of crash severity, violation category, weather condition, tow away, road surface condition, lighting, parties involved, traffic volume, duration, and shock wave speed generated by the primary accident. From the results, the linear regression model was inadequate in describing the effect of most variables and its goodness-of-fit and accuracy in prediction was relatively poor. In the training programs, the BPNN and LSSVM demonstrated adequate goodness-of-fit, though the BPNN was superior with a higher CORR and lower MSE. The BPNN model also outperformed the LSSVM in time prediction, while both failed to provide adequate distance prediction. Therefore, the BPNN model could be used to forecast the time gap between initial and secondary accidents, which could be used by decision makers and incident management agencies to prevent or reduce secondary collisions. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mechanism-based modeling of solute strengthening: application to thermal creep in Zr alloy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tome, Carlos; Wen, Wei; Capolungo, Laurent

2017-08-01

This report focuses on the development of a physics-based thermal creep model aiming to predict the behavior of Zr alloy under reactor accident condition. The current models used for this kind of simulations are mostly empirical in nature, based generally on fits to the experimental steady-state creep rates under different temperature and stress conditions, which has the following limitations. First, reactor accident conditions, such as RIA and LOCA, usually take place in short times and involve only the primary, not the steady-state creep behavior stage. Moreover, the empirical models cannot cover the conditions from normal operation to accident environments. Formore » example, Kombaiah and Murty [1,2] recently reported a transition between the low (n~4) and high (n~9) power law creep regimes in Zr alloys depending on the applied stress. Capturing such a behavior requires an accurate description of the mechanisms involved in the process. Therefore, a mechanism-based model that accounts for the evolution with time of microstructure is more appropriate and reliable for this kind of simulation.« less

Development of an Accident Reproduction Simulator System Using a Hemodialysis Extracorporeal Circulation System

PubMed Central

Nishite, Yoshiaki; Takesawa, Shingo

2016-01-01

Background: Accidents that occur during dialysis treatment are notified to the medical staff via alarms raised by the dialysis apparatus. Similar to such real accidents, apparatus activation or accidents can be reproduced by simulating a treatment situation. An alarm that corresponds to such accidents can be utilized in the simulation model. Objectives: The aim of this study was to create an extracorporeal circulation system (hereinafter, the circulation system) for dialysis machines so that it sets off five types of alarms for: 1) decreased arterial pressure, 2) increased arterial pressure, 3) decreased venous pressure, 4) increased venous pressure, and 5) blood leakage, according to the five types of accidents chosen based on their frequency of occurrence and the degree of severity. Materials and Methods: In order to verify the alarm from the dialysis apparatus connected to the circulation system and the accident corresponding to it, an evaluation of the alarm for its reproducibility of an accident was performed under normal treatment circumstances. The method involved testing whether the dialysis apparatus raised the desired alarm from the moment of control of the circulation system, and measuring the time it took until the desired alarm was activated. This was tested on five main models from four dialyzer manufacturers that are currently used in Japan. Results: The results of the tests demonstrated successful activation of the alarms by the dialysis apparatus, which were appropriate for each of the five types of accidents. The time between the control of the circulatory system to the alarm signal was as follows, 1) venous pressure lower limit alarm: 7 seconds; 2) venous pressure lower limit: 8 seconds; 3) venous pressure upper limit: 7 seconds; 4) venous pressure lower limit alarm: 2 seconds; and 5) blood leakage alarm: 19 seconds. All alarms were set off in under 20 seconds. Conclusions: Thus, we can conclude that a simulator system using an extracorporeal circulation system can be set to different models of dialyzers, and that the reproduced treatment scenarios can be used for simulation training. PMID:26981503

Assessment of environmental public exposure from a hypothetical nuclear accident for Unit-1 Bushehr nuclear power plant.

PubMed

Sohrabi, M; Ghasemi, M; Amrollahi, R; Khamooshi, C; Parsouzi, Z

2013-05-01

Unit-1 of the Bushehr nuclear power plant (BNPP-1) is a VVER-type reactor with 1,000-MWe power constructed near Bushehr city at the coast of the Persian Gulf, Iran. The reactor has been recently operational to near its full power. The radiological impact of nuclear power plant (NPP) accidents is of public concern, and the assessment of radiological consequences of any hypothetical nuclear accident on public exposure is vital. The hypothetical accident scenario considered in this paper is a design-basis accident, that is, a primary coolant leakage to the secondary circuit. This scenario was selected in order to compare and verify the results obtained in the present paper with those reported in the Final Safety Analysis Report (FSAR 2007) of the BNPP-1 and to develop a well-proven methodology that can be used to study other and more severe hypothetical accident scenarios for this reactor. In the present study, the version 2.01 of the PC COSYMA code was applied. In the early phase of the accidental releases, effective doses (from external and internal exposures) as well as individual and collective doses (due to the late phase of accidental releases) were evaluated. The surrounding area of the BNPP-1 within a radius of 80 km was subdivided into seven concentric rings and 16 sectors, and distribution of population and agricultural products was calculated for this grid. The results show that during the first year following the modeled hypothetical accident, the effective doses do not exceed the limit of 5 mSv, for the considered distances from the BNPP-1. The results obtained in this study are in good agreement with those in the FSAR-2007 report. The agreement obtained is in light of many inherent uncertainties and variables existing in the two modeling procedures applied and proves that the methodology applied here can also be used to model other severe hypothetical accident scenarios of the BNPP-1 such as a small and large break in the reactor coolant system as well as beyond design-basis accidents. Such scenarios are planned to be studied in the near future, for this reactor.

Aircraft Accidents: Trends in Aerospace Medical Investigation Techniques (Les Accidents d’Aeronefs: les Tendances en Techniques d’Investigation Medicale)

DTIC Science & Technology

1992-09-01

CONDITIONS AT TIME OF RESCUE 8 Chemica 1 Clear 9- Unknown 2 Fog 16 othOer 3 Hail4_ Overcast (9) DIRECT" FACED AT PARACHUTE LANDING Rain I () DRECION6...synth~se des accidents F-16 de cat~gorie A aurvenus cý la Force A6rienne Beige; je pense poaa~ der une bonne con-3 naissance des dossiers, a’y’nt 6t6...or mock-ups in or- history of the concentrations Lave been der to study the development of environ- used to establish the model. The main re- mental

Driving safety and adolescent behavior.

PubMed

Brown, R C; Sanders, J M; Schonberg, S K

1986-04-01

Accidents, and mainly automotive accidents, are currently the leading cause of mortality and morbidity among young people. Understanding and addressing the issue of automotive accident prevention requires an awareness of the multiple psychodynamic, familial, and societal influences that affect the development and behavior of adolescents. Risk-taking behavior is the product of complex personal and environmental factors. As pediatricians, we have the obligation and the opportunity to improve the safety of our youth who drive and ride. This opportunity is available to us not only in our roles as counselors to youth and families, but also as we serve as role models, educators, and agents for change within our communities.

Incorporating real-time traffic and weather data to explore road accident likelihood and severity in urban arterials.

PubMed

Theofilatos, Athanasios

2017-06-01

The effective treatment of road accidents and thus the enhancement of road safety is a major concern to societies due to the losses in human lives and the economic and social costs. The investigation of road accident likelihood and severity by utilizing real-time traffic and weather data has recently received significant attention by researchers. However, collected data mainly stem from freeways and expressways. Consequently, the aim of the present paper is to add to the current knowledge by investigating accident likelihood and severity by exploiting real-time traffic and weather data collected from urban arterials in Athens, Greece. Random Forests (RF) are firstly applied for preliminary analysis purposes. More specifically, it is aimed to rank candidate variables according to their relevant importance and provide a first insight on the potential significant variables. Then, Bayesian logistic regression as well finite mixture and mixed effects logit models are applied to further explore factors associated with accident likelihood and severity respectively. Regarding accident likelihood, the Bayesian logistic regression showed that variations in traffic significantly influence accident occurrence. On the other hand, accident severity analysis revealed a generally mixed influence of traffic variations on accident severity, although international literature states that traffic variations increase severity. Lastly, weather parameters did not find to have a direct influence on accident likelihood or severity. The study added to the current knowledge by incorporating real-time traffic and weather data from urban arterials to investigate accident occurrence and accident severity mechanisms. The identification of risk factors can lead to the development of effective traffic management strategies to reduce accident occurrence and severity of injuries in urban arterials. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd and National Safety Council. All rights reserved.

A model for the release, dispersion and environmental impact of a postulated reactor accident from a submerged commercial nuclear power plant

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bertch, Timothy Creston

1998-12-01

Nuclear power plants are inherently suitable for submerged applications and could provide power to the shore power grid or support future underwater applications. The technology exists today and the construction of a submerged commercial nuclear power plant may become desirable. A submerged reactor is safer to humans because the infinite supply of water for heat removal, particulate retention in the water column, sedimentation to the ocean floor and inherent shielding of the aquatic environment would significantly mitigate the effects of a reactor accident. A better understanding of reactor operation in this new environment is required to quantify the radioecological impact and to determine the suitability of this concept. The impact of release to the environment from a severe reactor accident is a new aspect of the field of marine radioecology. Current efforts have been centered on radioecological impacts of nuclear waste disposal, nuclear weapons testing fallout and shore nuclear plant discharges. This dissertation examines the environmental impact of a severe reactor accident in a submerged commercial nuclear power plant, modeling a postulated site on the Atlantic continental shelf adjacent to the United States. This effort models the effects of geography, decay, particle transport/dispersion, bioaccumulation and elimination with associated dose commitment. The use of a source term equivalent to the release from Chernobyl allows comparison between the impacts of that accident and the postulated submerged commercial reactor plant accident. All input parameters are evaluated using sensitivity analysis. The effect of the release on marine biota is determined. Study of the pathways to humans from gaseous radionuclides, consumption of contaminated marine biota and direct exposure as contaminated water reaches the shoreline is conducted. The model developed by this effort predicts a significant mitigation of the radioecological impact of the reactor accident release with a submerged commercial nuclear power plant. The two box models predict the most of the radio-ecological impact occurs during the first eight days after release. The most significant risk to humans is from consumption of biota. The reduction in impact to humans from a large radioactive release makes the concept worthy of further study.

Light water reactor lower head failure analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rempe, J.L.; Chavez, S.A.; Thinnes, G.L.

1993-10-01

This document presents the results from a US Nuclear Regulatory Commission-sponsored research program to investigate the mode and timing of vessel lower head failure. Major objectives of the analysis were to identify plausible failure mechanisms and to develop a method for determining which failure mode would occur first in different light water reactor designs and accident conditions. Failure mechanisms, such as tube ejection, tube rupture, global vessel failure, and localized vessel creep rupture, were studied. Newly developed models and existing models were applied to predict which failure mechanism would occur first in various severe accident scenarios. So that a broadermore » range of conditions could be considered simultaneously, calculations relied heavily on models with closed-form or simplified numerical solution techniques. Finite element techniques-were employed for analytical model verification and examining more detailed phenomena. High-temperature creep and tensile data were obtained for predicting vessel and penetration structural response.« less

Identification of pre-impact conditions of a cyclist involved in a vehicle-bicycle accident using an optimized MADYMO reconstruction combined with motion capture.

PubMed

Sun, Jie; Li, Zhengdong; Pan, Shaoyou; Feng, Hao; Shao, Yu; Liu, Ningguo; Huang, Ping; Zou, Donghua; Chen, Yijiu

2018-05-01

The aim of the present study was to develop an improved method, using MADYMO multi-body simulation software combined with an optimization method and three-dimensional (3D) motion capture, for identifying the pre-impact conditions of a cyclist (walking or cycling) involved in a vehicle-bicycle accident. First, a 3D motion capture system was used to analyze coupled motions of a volunteer while walking and cycling. The motion capture results were used to define the posture of the human model during walking and cycling simulations. Then, cyclist, bicycle and vehicle models were developed. Pre-impact parameters of the models were treated as unknown design variables. Finally, a multi-objective genetic algorithm, the nondominated sorting genetic algorithm II, was used to find optimal solutions. The objective functions of the walk parameter were significantly lower than cycle parameter; thus, the cyclist was more likely to have been walking with the bicycle than riding the bicycle. In the most closely matched result found, all observed contact points matched and the injury parameters correlated well with the real injuries sustained by the cyclist. Based on the real accident reconstruction, the present study indicates that MADYMO multi-body simulation software, combined with an optimization method and 3D motion capture, can be used to identify the pre-impact conditions of a cyclist involved in a vehicle-bicycle accident. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

An Evaluation of the Hazard Prediction and Assessment Capability (HPAC) Software’s Ability to Model the Chornobyl Accident

DTIC Science & Technology

2002-03-01

source term. Several publications provided a thorough accounting of the accident, including “ Chernobyl Record” [Mould], and the NRC technical report...Report on the Accident at the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Station” [NUREG-1250]. The most comprehensive study of transport models to predict the...from the Chernobyl Accident: The ATMES Report” [Klug, et al.]. The Atmospheric Transport 5 Model Evaluation Study (ATMES) report used data

Circuit board accident--organizational dimension hidden by prescribed safety.

PubMed

de Almeida, Ildeberto Muniz; Buoso, Eduardo; do Amaral Dias, Maria Dionísia; Vilela, Rodolfo Andrade Gouveia

2012-01-01

This study analyzes an accident in which two maintenance workers suffered severe burns while replacing a circuit breaker panel in a steel mill, following model of analysis and prevention of accidents (MAPA) developed with the objective of enlarging the perimeter of interventions and contributing to deconstruction of blame attribution practices. The study was based on materials produced by a health service team in an in-depth analysis of the accident. The analysis shows that decisions related to system modernization were taken without considering their implications in maintenance scheduling and creating conflicts of priorities and of interests between production and safety; and also reveals that the lack of a systemic perspective in safety management was its principal failure. To explain the accident as merely non-fulfillment of idealized formal safety rules feeds practices of blame attribution supported by alibi norms and inhibits possible prevention. In contrast, accident analyses undertaken in worker health surveillance services show potential to reveal origins of these events incubated in the history of the system ignored in practices guided by the traditional paradigm.

Unions, Health and Safety Committees, and Workplace Accidents in the Korean Manufacturing Sector.

PubMed

Kim, Woo-Yung; Cho, Hm-Hak

2016-06-01

Despite the declining trend of workplace accidents in Republic of Korea, its level is still quite high compared with that in other developed countries. Factors that are responsible for high workplace accidents have not been well documented in Republic of Korea. The main purpose of this paper is to estimate the effects of unions and health and safety committees on workplace accidents in Korean manufacturing firms. We also allow for the interactions between unions and health and safety committees in the analysis. The results obtained in this paper will not only contribute to the literature in this field, but might also be useful for employers and worker representatives who are trying to find an effective way to reduce workplace accidents. This paper utilizes the 2012 Occupational Safety and Health Trend Survey data, which is a unique data set providing information on workplace injuries and illness as well as other characteristics of participatory firms, representative of the manufacturing industry in Republic of Korea. In estimating the effects of unions and health and safety committees, we build a negative binomial regression model in which the interactions between unions and health and safety committees are permissible in reducing workplace accidents. Health and safety committees were found to reduce the incidence of accidents whereas unionized establishments have higher incidence of accidents than nonunionized establishments. We also found that health and safety committees can more effectively reduce accidents in nonunionized establishments. By contrast, nonexclusive joint committees can more effectively reduce accidents in unionized establishments.

Air oxidation of Zircaloy-4 in the 600-1000 °C temperature range: Modeling for ASTEC code application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coindreau, O.; Duriez, C.; Ederli, S.

2010-10-01

Progress in the treatment of air oxidation of zirconium in severe accident (SA) codes are required for a reliable analysis of severe accidents involving air ingress. Air oxidation of zirconium can actually lead to accelerated core degradation and increased fission product release, especially for the highly-radiotoxic ruthenium. This paper presents a model to simulate air oxidation kinetics of Zircaloy-4 in the 600-1000 °C temperature range. It is based on available experimental data, including separate-effect experiments performed at IRSN and at Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe. The kinetic transition, named "breakaway", from a diffusion-controlled regime to an accelerated oxidation is taken into account in the modeling via a critical mass gain parameter. The progressive propagation of the locally initiated breakaway is modeled by a linear increase in oxidation rate with time. Finally, when breakaway propagation is completed, the oxidation rate stabilizes and the kinetics is modeled by a linear law. This new modeling is integrated in the severe accident code ASTEC, jointly developed by IRSN and GRS. Model predictions and experimental data from thermogravimetric results show good agreement for different air flow rates and for slow temperature transient conditions.

Modelling road accidents: An approach using structural time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Junus, Noor Wahida Md; Ismail, Mohd Tahir

2014-09-01

In this paper, the trend of road accidents in Malaysia for the years 2001 until 2012 was modelled using a structural time series approach. The structural time series model was identified using a stepwise method, and the residuals for each model were tested. The best-fitted model was chosen based on the smallest Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and prediction error variance. In order to check the quality of the model, a data validation procedure was performed by predicting the monthly number of road accidents for the year 2012. Results indicate that the best specification of the structural time series model to represent road accidents is the local level with a seasonal model.

PRELIMINARY EVALUATION OF FeCrAl CLADDING AND U-Si FUEL FOR ACCIDENT TOLERANT FUEL CONCEPTS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hales, J. D.; Gamble, K. A.

2015-09-01

Since the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station, enhancing the accident tolerance of light water reactors (LWRs) has become an important research topic. In particular, the community is actively developing enhanced fuels and cladding for LWRs to improve safety in the event of accidents in the reactor or spent fuel pools. Fuels with enhanced accident tolerance are those that, in comparison with the standard UO2-zirconium alloy system, can tolerate loss of active cooling in the reactor core for a considerably longer time period during design-basis and beyond design-basis events while maintaining or improving the fuel performance during normalmore » operations and operational transients. This paper presents early work in developing thermal and mechanical models for two materials that may have promise: U-Si for fuel, and FeCrAl for cladding. These materials would not necessarily be used together in the same fuel system, but individually have promising characteristics. BISON, the finite element-based fuel performance code in development at Idaho National Laboratory, was used to compare results from normal operation conditions with Zr-4/UO2 behavior. In addition, sensitivity studies are presented for evaluating the relative importance of material parameters such as ductility and thermal conductivity in FeCrAl and U-Si in order to provide guidance on future experiments for these materials.« less

A combined M5P tree and hazard-based duration model for predicting urban freeway traffic accident durations.

PubMed

Lin, Lei; Wang, Qian; Sadek, Adel W

2016-06-01

The duration of freeway traffic accidents duration is an important factor, which affects traffic congestion, environmental pollution, and secondary accidents. Among previous studies, the M5P algorithm has been shown to be an effective tool for predicting incident duration. M5P builds a tree-based model, like the traditional classification and regression tree (CART) method, but with multiple linear regression models as its leaves. The problem with M5P for accident duration prediction, however, is that whereas linear regression assumes that the conditional distribution of accident durations is normally distributed, the distribution for a "time-to-an-event" is almost certainly nonsymmetrical. A hazard-based duration model (HBDM) is a better choice for this kind of a "time-to-event" modeling scenario, and given this, HBDMs have been previously applied to analyze and predict traffic accidents duration. Previous research, however, has not yet applied HBDMs for accident duration prediction, in association with clustering or classification of the dataset to minimize data heterogeneity. The current paper proposes a novel approach for accident duration prediction, which improves on the original M5P tree algorithm through the construction of a M5P-HBDM model, in which the leaves of the M5P tree model are HBDMs instead of linear regression models. Such a model offers the advantage of minimizing data heterogeneity through dataset classification, and avoids the need for the incorrect assumption of normality for traffic accident durations. The proposed model was then tested on two freeway accident datasets. For each dataset, the first 500 records were used to train the following three models: (1) an M5P tree; (2) a HBDM; and (3) the proposed M5P-HBDM, and the remainder of data were used for testing. The results show that the proposed M5P-HBDM managed to identify more significant and meaningful variables than either M5P or HBDMs. Moreover, the M5P-HBDM had the lowest overall mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Zero-state Markov switching count-data models: an empirical assessment.

PubMed

Malyshkina, Nataliya V; Mannering, Fred L

2010-01-01

In this study, a two-state Markov switching count-data model is proposed as an alternative to zero-inflated models to account for the preponderance of zeros sometimes observed in transportation count data, such as the number of accidents occurring on a roadway segment over some period of time. For this accident-frequency case, zero-inflated models assume the existence of two states: one of the states is a zero-accident count state, which has accident probabilities that are so low that they cannot be statistically distinguished from zero, and the other state is a normal-count state, in which counts can be non-negative integers that are generated by some counting process, for example, a Poisson or negative binomial. While zero-inflated models have come under some criticism with regard to accident-frequency applications - one fact is undeniable - in many applications they provide a statistically superior fit to the data. The Markov switching approach we propose seeks to overcome some of the criticism associated with the zero-accident state of the zero-inflated model by allowing individual roadway segments to switch between zero and normal-count states over time. An important advantage of this Markov switching approach is that it allows for the direct statistical estimation of the specific roadway-segment state (i.e., zero-accident or normal-count state) whereas traditional zero-inflated models do not. To demonstrate the applicability of this approach, a two-state Markov switching negative binomial model (estimated with Bayesian inference) and standard zero-inflated negative binomial models are estimated using five-year accident frequencies on Indiana interstate highway segments. It is shown that the Markov switching model is a viable alternative and results in a superior statistical fit relative to the zero-inflated models.

Maritime Transportation Risk Assessment of Tianjin Port with Bayesian Belief Networks.

PubMed

Zhang, Jinfen; Teixeira, Ângelo P; Guedes Soares, C; Yan, Xinping; Liu, Kezhong

2016-06-01

This article develops a Bayesian belief network model for the prediction of accident consequences in the Tianjin port. The study starts with a statistical analysis of historical accident data of six years from 2008 to 2013. Then a Bayesian belief network is constructed to express the dependencies between the indicator variables and accident consequences. The statistics and expert knowledge are synthesized in the Bayesian belief network model to obtain the probability distribution of the consequences. By a sensitivity analysis, several indicator variables that have influence on the consequences are identified, including navigational area, ship type and time of the day. The results indicate that the consequences are most sensitive to the position where the accidents occurred, followed by time of day and ship length. The results also reflect that the navigational risk of the Tianjin port is at the acceptable level, despite that there is more room of improvement. These results can be used by the Maritime Safety Administration to take effective measures to enhance maritime safety in the Tianjin port. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Development and test of rural pedestrian safety countermeasures

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1983-12-01

Prior to any promulgation by NHTSA of four model traffic regulations for rural pedestrian safety it was the objective of this study to assess, where feasible, the potential effectiveness of these regulations to prevent pedestrian accidents. The model...

[Psychoreactive disorders after motor vehicle accidents. Is it possible to predict the development of psychoreactive disorders after motor vehicle accidents?].

PubMed

Meyer, C; Dittrich, U; Küster, S; Markgraf, E; Hofmann, G O; Strauss, B

2005-12-01

The aim of this study was to assess common risk factors for the early development of psychoreactive disorders during traumatological treatment and to estimate their predictive potential. The sample consisted of 126 consecutive patients with accidental injuries recruited in an emergency room of the university hospital. We assessed this population 1 week (T1) and-on average-8 months following the accident (T2). At T1 34.5% of all patients indicated moderate and 26.4% strong symptoms of an acute stress disorder; 26.7% of all patients assessed at T2 suffered from severe post-traumatic symptoms. Linear regression analysis, using morbidity status at T2 as the dependent variable, allowed the explanation of 46.2% of the variance. The degree of early acute stress symptoms, injury, and pain intensity contributed significantly to the predictive model. We conclude that a substantial proportion of severely injured accident victims that will develop PTSD can be screened to some degree by the assessment of early stress disorder, the degree of their injury, and pain intensity, enabling secondary prevention of trauma-dependent symptomatology.

Measuring pedestrian volumes and conflicts. Volume 2, Accident prediction model

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1987-12-01

This final report presents the findings, conclusions, and recommendations of the study conducted to model pedestrian/vehicle accidents. A group-type analysis approach for the prediction of pedestrian/vehicle accidents using pedestrian/vehicle conflic...

The Initial Atmospheric Transport (IAT) Code: Description and Validation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Morrow, Charles W.; Bartel, Timothy James

The Initial Atmospheric Transport (IAT) computer code was developed at Sandia National Laboratories as part of their nuclear launch accident consequences analysis suite of computer codes. The purpose of IAT is to predict the initial puff/plume rise resulting from either a solid rocket propellant or liquid rocket fuel fire. The code generates initial conditions for subsequent atmospheric transport calculations. The Initial Atmospheric Transfer (IAT) code has been compared to two data sets which are appropriate to the design space of space launch accident analyses. The primary model uncertainties are the entrainment coefficients for the extended Taylor model. The Titan 34Dmore » accident (1986) was used to calibrate these entrainment settings for a prototypic liquid propellant accident while the recent Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory (JHU/APL, or simply APL) large propellant block tests (2012) were used to calibrate the entrainment settings for prototypic solid propellant accidents. North American Meteorology (NAM )formatted weather data profiles are used by IAT to determine the local buoyancy force balance. The IAT comparisons for the APL solid propellant tests illustrate the sensitivity of the plume elevation to the weather profiles; that is, the weather profile is a dominant factor in determining the plume elevation. The IAT code performed remarkably well and is considered validated for neutral weather conditions.« less

Partial least square method for modelling ergonomic risks factors on express bus accidents in the east coast of peninsular west Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hashim, Yusof bin; Taha, Zahari bin

2015-02-01

Public, stake holders and authorities in Malaysian government show great concern towards high numbers of passenger's injuries and passengers fatalities in express bus accident. This paper studies the underlying factors involved in determining ergonomics risk factors towards human error as the reasons in express bus accidents in order to develop an integrated analytical framework. Reliable information about drivers towards bus accident should lead to the design of strategies intended to make the public feel safe in public transport services. In addition there is an analysis of ergonomics risk factors to determine highly ergonomic risk factors which led to accidents. The research was performed in east coast of peninsular Malaysia using variance-based structural equation modeling namely the Partial Least Squares (PLS) regression techniques. A questionnaire survey was carried out at random among 65 express bus drivers operating from the city of Kuantan in Pahang and among 49 express bus drivers operating from the city of Kuala Terengganu in Terengganu to all towns in the east coast of peninsular west Malaysia. The ergonomic risks factors questionnaire is based on demographic information, occupational information, organizational safety climate, ergonomic workplace, physiological factors, stress at workplace, physical fatigue and near miss accidents. The correlation and significant values between latent constructs (near miss accident) were analyzed using SEM SmartPLS, 3M. The finding shows that the correlated ergonomic risks factors (occupational information, t=2.04, stress at workplace, t = 2.81, physiological factor, t=2.08) are significant to physical fatigue and as the mediator to near miss accident at t = 2.14 at p<0.05and T-statistics, t>1.96. The results shows that the effects of physical fatigue due to ergonomic risks factors influence the human error as the reasons in express bus accidents.

Partial least square method for modelling ergonomic risks factors on express bus accidents in the east coast of peninsular west Malaysia

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hashim, Yusof bin; Taha, Zahari bin

Public, stake holders and authorities in Malaysian government show great concern towards high numbers of passenger’s injuries and passengers fatalities in express bus accident. This paper studies the underlying factors involved in determining ergonomics risk factors towards human error as the reasons in express bus accidents in order to develop an integrated analytical framework. Reliable information about drivers towards bus accident should lead to the design of strategies intended to make the public feel safe in public transport services. In addition there is an analysis of ergonomics risk factors to determine highly ergonomic risk factors which led to accidents. Themore » research was performed in east coast of peninsular Malaysia using variance-based structural equation modeling namely the Partial Least Squares (PLS) regression techniques. A questionnaire survey was carried out at random among 65 express bus drivers operating from the city of Kuantan in Pahang and among 49 express bus drivers operating from the city of Kuala Terengganu in Terengganu to all towns in the east coast of peninsular west Malaysia. The ergonomic risks factors questionnaire is based on demographic information, occupational information, organizational safety climate, ergonomic workplace, physiological factors, stress at workplace, physical fatigue and near miss accidents. The correlation and significant values between latent constructs (near miss accident) were analyzed using SEM SmartPLS, 3M. The finding shows that the correlated ergonomic risks factors (occupational information, t=2.04, stress at workplace, t = 2.81, physiological factor, t=2.08) are significant to physical fatigue and as the mediator to near miss accident at t = 2.14 at p<0.05and T-statistics, t>1.96. The results shows that the effects of physical fatigue due to ergonomic risks factors influence the human error as the reasons in express bus accidents.« less

Clustering-based classification of road traffic accidents using hierarchical clustering and artificial neural networks.

PubMed

Taamneh, Madhar; Taamneh, Salah; Alkheder, Sharaf

2017-09-01

Artificial neural networks (ANNs) have been widely used in predicting the severity of road traffic crashes. All available information about previously occurred accidents is typically used for building a single prediction model (i.e., classifier). Too little attention has been paid to the differences between these accidents, leading, in most cases, to build less accurate predictors. Hierarchical clustering is a well-known clustering method that seeks to group data by creating a hierarchy of clusters. Using hierarchical clustering and ANNs, a clustering-based classification approach for predicting the injury severity of road traffic accidents was proposed. About 6000 road accidents occurred over a six-year period from 2008 to 2013 in Abu Dhabi were used throughout this study. In order to reduce the amount of variation in data, hierarchical clustering was applied on the data set to organize it into six different forms, each with different number of clusters (i.e., clusters from 1 to 6). Two ANN models were subsequently built for each cluster of accidents in each generated form. The first model was built and validated using all accidents (training set), whereas only 66% of the accidents were used to build the second model, and the remaining 34% were used to test it (percentage split). Finally, the weighted average accuracy was computed for each type of models in each from of data. The results show that when testing the models using the training set, clustering prior to classification achieves (11%-16%) more accuracy than without using clustering, while the percentage split achieves (2%-5%) more accuracy. The results also suggest that partitioning the accidents into six clusters achieves the best accuracy if both types of models are taken into account.

A system dynamics approach for modeling construction workers' safety attitudes and behaviors.

PubMed

Shin, Mingyu; Lee, Hyun-Soo; Park, Moonseo; Moon, Myunggi; Han, Sangwon

2014-07-01

Construction accidents are caused by an unsafe act (i.e., a person's behavior or activity that deviates from normal accepted safe procedure) and/or an unsafe condition (i.e., a hazard or an unsafe mechanical or physical environment). While there has been dramatic improvement in creating safer construction environments, relatively little is known regarding the elimination of construction workers' unsafe acts. To address this deficiency, this paper aims to develop a system dynamics (SD)-based model of construction workers' mental processes that can help analyze the feedback mechanisms and the resultant dynamics regarding the workers' safety attitudes and safe behaviors. The developed model is applied to examine the effectiveness of three safety improvement policies: incentives for safe behaviors, and increased levels of communication and immersion in accidents. Application of the model verifies the strong potential of the developed model to provide a better understanding of how to eliminate unsafe acts, and to function as a robust test-bed to assess the effectiveness of safety programs or training sessions before their implementation. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Study of Airline Passenger Susceptibility to Atmospheric Turbulence Hazard

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stewart, Eric C.

2000-01-01

A simple, generic, simulation math model of a commercial airliner has been developed to study the susceptibility of unrestrained passengers to large, discrete gust encounters. The math model simulates the longitudinal motion to vertical gusts and includes (1) motion of an unrestrained passenger in the rear cabin, (2) fuselage flexibility, (3) the lag in the downwash from the wing to the tail, and (4) unsteady lift effects. Airplane and passenger response contours are calculated for a matrix of gust amplitudes and gust lengths of a simulated mountain rotor. A comparison of the model-predicted responses to data from three accidents indicates that the accelerations in actual accidents are sometimes much larger than the simulated gust encounters.

Do alcohol excise taxes affect traffic accidents? Evidence from Estonia.

PubMed

Saar, Indrek

2015-01-01

This article examines the association between alcohol excise tax rates and alcohol-related traffic accidents in Estonia. Monthly time series of traffic accidents involving drunken motor vehicle drivers from 1998 through 2013 were regressed on real average alcohol excise tax rates while controlling for changes in economic conditions and the traffic environment. Specifically, regression models with autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) errors were estimated in order to deal with serial correlation in residuals. Counterfactual models were also estimated in order to check the robustness of the results, using the level of non-alcohol-related traffic accidents as a dependent variable. A statistically significant (P <.01) strong negative relationship between the real average alcohol excise tax rate and alcohol-related traffic accidents was disclosed under alternative model specifications. For instance, the regression model with ARIMA (0, 1, 1)(0, 1, 1) errors revealed that a 1-unit increase in the tax rate is associated with a 1.6% decrease in the level of accidents per 100,000 population involving drunk motor vehicle drivers. No similar association was found in the cases of counterfactual models for non-alcohol-related traffic accidents. This article indicates that the level of alcohol-related traffic accidents in Estonia has been affected by changes in real average alcohol excise taxes during the period 1998-2013. Therefore, in addition to other measures, the use of alcohol taxation is warranted as a policy instrument in tackling alcohol-related traffic accidents.

An Accident Precursor Analysis Process Tailored for NASA Space Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Groen, Frank; Stamatelatos, Michael; Dezfuli, Homayoon; Maggio, Gaspare

2010-01-01

Accident Precursor Analysis (APA) serves as the bridge between existing risk modeling activities, which are often based on historical or generic failure statistics, and system anomalies, which provide crucial information about the failure mechanisms that are actually operative in the system and which may differ in frequency or type from those in the various models. These discrepancies between the models (perceived risk) and the system (actual risk) provide the leading indication of an underappreciated risk. This paper presents an APA process developed specifically for NASA Earth-to-Orbit space systems. The purpose of the process is to identify and characterize potential sources of system risk as evidenced by anomalous events which, although not necessarily presenting an immediate safety impact, may indicate that an unknown or insufficiently understood risk-significant condition exists in the system. Such anomalous events are considered accident precursors because they signal the potential for severe consequences that may occur in the future, due to causes that are discernible from their occurrence today. Their early identification allows them to be integrated into the overall system risk model used to intbrm decisions relating to safety.

Anthropometric dependence of the response of a thorax FE model under high speed loading: validation and real world accident replication.

PubMed

Roth, Sébastien; Torres, Fabien; Feuerstein, Philippe; Thoral-Pierre, Karine

2013-05-01

Finite element analysis is frequently used in several fields such as automotive simulations or biomechanics. It helps researchers and engineers to understand the mechanical behaviour of complex structures. The development of computer science brought the possibility to develop realistic computational models which can behave like physical ones, avoiding the difficulties and costs of experimental tests. In the framework of biomechanics, lots of FE models have been developed in the last few decades, enabling the investigation of the behaviour of the human body submitted to heavy damage such as in road traffic accidents or in ballistic impact. In both cases, the thorax/abdomen/pelvis system is frequently injured. The understanding of the behaviour of this complex system is of extreme importance. In order to explore the dynamic response of this system to impact loading, a finite element model of the human thorax/abdomen/pelvis system has, therefore, been developed including the main organs: heart, lungs, kidneys, liver, spleen, the skeleton (with vertebrae, intervertebral discs, ribs), stomach, intestines, muscles, and skin. The FE model is based on a 3D reconstruction, which has been made from medical records of anonymous patients, who have had medical scans with no relation to the present study. Several scans have been analyzed, and specific attention has been paid to the anthropometry of the reconstructed model, which can be considered as a 50th percentile male model. The biometric parameters and laws have been implemented in the dynamic FE code (Radioss, Altair Hyperworks 11©) used for dynamic simulations. Then the 50th percentile model was validated against experimental data available in the literature, in terms of deflection, force, whose curve must be in experimental corridors. However, for other anthropometries (small male or large male models) question about the validation and results of numerical accident replications can be raised. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Development of Database for Accident Analysis in Indian Mines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tripathy, Debi Prasad; Guru Raghavendra Reddy, K.

2016-10-01

Mining is a hazardous industry and high accident rates associated with underground mining is a cause of deep concern. Technological developments notwithstanding, rate of fatal accidents and reportable incidents have not shown corresponding levels of decline. This paper argues that adoption of appropriate safety standards by both mine management and the government may result in appreciable reduction in accident frequency. This can be achieved by using the technology in improving the working conditions, sensitising workers and managers about causes and prevention of accidents. Inputs required for a detailed analysis of an accident include information on location, time, type, cost of accident, victim, nature of injury, personal and environmental factors etc. Such information can be generated from data available in the standard coded accident report form. This paper presents a web based application for accident analysis in Indian mines during 2001-2013. An accident database (SafeStat) prototype based on Intranet of the TCP/IP agreement, as developed by the authors, is also discussed.

A neutron dosemeter for nuclear criticality accidents.

PubMed

d'Errico, F; Curzio, G; Ciolini, R; Del Gratta, A; Nath, R

2004-01-01

A neutron dosemeter which offers instant read-out has been developed for nuclear criticality accidents. The system is based on gels containing emulsions of superheated dichlorodifluoromethane droplets, which vaporise into bubbles upon neutron irradiation. The expansion of these bubbles displaces an equivalent volume of gel into a graduated pipette, providing an immediate measure of the dose. Instant read-out is achieved using an array of transmissive optical sensors which consist of coupled LED emitters and phototransistor receivers. When the gel displaced in the pipette crosses the sensing region of the photomicrosensors, it generates a signal collected on a computer through a dedicated acquisition board. The performance of the device was tested during the 2002 International Accident Dosimetry Intercomparison in Valduc, France. The dosemeter was able to follow the initial dose gradient of a simulated accident, providing accurate values of neutron kerma; however, the emulsion was rapidly depleted of all its drops. A model of the depletion effects was developed and it indicates that an adequate dynamic range of the dose response can be achieved by using emulsions of smaller droplets.

Markov switching multinomial logit model: An application to accident-injury severities.

PubMed

Malyshkina, Nataliya V; Mannering, Fred L

2009-07-01

In this study, two-state Markov switching multinomial logit models are proposed for statistical modeling of accident-injury severities. These models assume Markov switching over time between two unobserved states of roadway safety as a means of accounting for potential unobserved heterogeneity. The states are distinct in the sense that in different states accident-severity outcomes are generated by separate multinomial logit processes. To demonstrate the applicability of the approach, two-state Markov switching multinomial logit models are estimated for severity outcomes of accidents occurring on Indiana roads over a four-year time period. Bayesian inference methods and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations are used for model estimation. The estimated Markov switching models result in a superior statistical fit relative to the standard (single-state) multinomial logit models for a number of roadway classes and accident types. It is found that the more frequent state of roadway safety is correlated with better weather conditions and that the less frequent state is correlated with adverse weather conditions.

HIGH-FIDELITY SIMULATION-DRIVEN MODEL DEVELOPMENT FOR COARSE-GRAINED COMPUTATIONAL FLUID DYNAMICS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hanna, Botros N.; Dinh, Nam T.; Bolotnov, Igor A.

Nuclear reactor safety analysis requires identifying various credible accident scenarios and determining their consequences. For a full-scale nuclear power plant system behavior, it is impossible to obtain sufficient experimental data for a broad range of risk-significant accident scenarios. In single-phase flow convective problems, Direct Numerical Simulation (DNS) and Large Eddy Simulation (LES) can provide us with high fidelity results when physical data are unavailable. However, these methods are computationally expensive and cannot be afforded for simulation of long transient scenarios in nuclear accidents despite extraordinary advances in high performance scientific computing over the past decades. The major issue is themore » inability to make the transient computation parallel, thus making number of time steps required in high-fidelity methods unaffordable for long transients. In this work, we propose to apply a high fidelity simulation-driven approach to model sub-grid scale (SGS) effect in Coarse Grained Computational Fluid Dynamics CG-CFD. This approach aims to develop a statistical surrogate model instead of the deterministic SGS model. We chose to start with a turbulent natural convection case with volumetric heating in a horizontal fluid layer with a rigid, insulated lower boundary and isothermal (cold) upper boundary. This scenario of unstable stratification is relevant to turbulent natural convection in a molten corium pool during a severe nuclear reactor accident, as well as in containment mixing and passive cooling. The presented approach demonstrates how to create a correction for the CG-CFD solution by modifying the energy balance equation. A global correction for the temperature equation proves to achieve a significant improvement to the prediction of steady state temperature distribution through the fluid layer.« less

Accident models for two-lane rural roads : segments and intersections

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1998-10-01

This report is a direct step for the implementation of the Accident Analysis Module in the Interactive Highway Safety Design Model (IHSDM). The Accident Analysis Module is expected to estimate the safety of two-lane rural highway characteristics for ...

A risk analysis of winter navigation in Finnish sea areas.

PubMed

Valdez Banda, Osiris A; Goerlandt, Floris; Montewka, Jakub; Kujala, Pentti

2015-06-01

Winter navigation is a complex but common operation in north-European sea areas. In Finnish waters, the smooth flow of maritime traffic and safety of vessel navigation during the winter period are managed through the Finnish-Swedish winter navigation system (FSWNS). This article focuses on accident risks in winter navigation operations, beginning with a brief outline of the FSWNS. The study analyses a hazard identification model of winter navigation and reviews accident data extracted from four winter periods. These are adopted as a basis for visualizing the risks in winter navigation operations. The results reveal that experts consider ship independent navigation in ice conditions the most complex navigational operation, which is confirmed by accident data analysis showing that the operation constitutes the type of navigation with the highest number of accidents reported. The severity of the accidents during winter navigation is mainly categorized as less serious. Collision is the most typical accident in ice navigation and general cargo the type of vessel most frequently involved in these accidents. Consolidated ice, ice ridges and ice thickness between 15 and 40cm represent the most common ice conditions in which accidents occur. Thus, the analysis presented in this article establishes the key elements for identifying the operation types which would benefit most from further safety engineering and safety or risk management development. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Context-aware system for pre-triggering irreversible vehicle safety actuators.

PubMed

Böhmländer, Dennis; Dirndorfer, Tobias; Al-Bayatti, Ali H; Brandmeier, Thomas

2017-06-01

New vehicle safety systems have led to a steady improvement of road safety and a reduction in the risk of suffering a major injury in vehicle accidents. A huge leap forward in the development of new vehicle safety systems are actuators that have to be activated irreversibly shortly before a collision in order to mitigate accident consequences. The triggering decision has to be based on measurements of exteroceptive sensors currently used in driver assistance systems. This paper focuses on developing a novel context-aware system designed to detect potential collisions and to trigger safety actuators even before an accident occurs. In this context, the analysis examines the information that can be collected from exteroceptive sensors (pre-crash data) to predict a certain collision and its severity to decide whether a triggering is entitled or not. A five-layer context-aware architecture is presented, that is able to collect contextual information about the vehicle environment and the actual driving state using different sensors, to perform reasoning about potential collisions, and to trigger safety functions upon that information. Accident analysis is used in a data model to represent uncertain knowledge and to perform reasoning. A simulation concept based on real accident data is introduced to evaluate the presented system concept. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Impact of traffic congestion on road accidents: a spatial analysis of the M25 motorway in England.

PubMed

Wang, Chao; Quddus, Mohammed A; Ison, Stephen G

2009-07-01

Traffic congestion and road accidents are two external costs of transport and the reduction of their impacts is often one of the primary objectives for transport policy makers. The relationship between traffic congestion and road accidents however is not apparent and less studied. It is speculated that there may be an inverse relationship between traffic congestion and road accidents, and as such this poses a potential dilemma for transport policy makers. This study aims to explore the impact of traffic congestion on the frequency of road accidents using a spatial analysis approach, while controlling for other relevant factors that may affect road accidents. The M25 London orbital motorway, divided into 70 segments, was chosen to conduct this study and relevant data on road accidents, traffic and road characteristics were collected. A robust technique has been developed to map M25 accidents onto its segments. Since existing studies have often used a proxy to measure the level of congestion, this study has employed a precise congestion measurement. A series of Poisson based non-spatial (such as Poisson-lognormal and Poisson-gamma) and spatial (Poisson-lognormal with conditional autoregressive priors) models have been used to account for the effects of both heterogeneity and spatial correlation. The results suggest that traffic congestion has little or no impact on the frequency of road accidents on the M25 motorway. All other relevant factors have provided results consistent with existing studies.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Andrews, Nathan; Faucett, Christopher; Haskin, Troy Christopher

Following the conclusion of the first phase of the crosswalk analysis, one of the key unanswered questions was whether or not the deviations found would persist during a partially recovered accident scenario, similar to the one that occurred in TMI - 2. In particular this analysis aims to compare the impact of core degradation morphology on quenching models inherent within the two codes and the coolability of debris during partially recovered accidents. A primary motivation for this study is the development of insights into how uncertainties in core damage progression models impact the ability to assess the potential for recoverymore » of a degraded core. These quench and core recovery models are of the most interest when there is a significant amount of core damage, but intact and degraded fuel still remain in the cor e region or the lower plenum. Accordingly this analysis presents a spectrum of partially recovered accident scenarios by varying both water injection timing and rate to highlight the impact of core degradation phenomena on recovered accident scenarios. This analysis uses the newly released MELCOR 2.2 rev. 966 5 and MAAP5, Version 5.04. These code versions, which incorporate a significant number of modifications that have been driven by analyses and forensic evidence obtained from the Fukushima - Daiichi reactor site.« less

Tobit analysis of vehicle accident rates on interstate highways.

PubMed

Anastasopoulos, Panagiotis Ch; Tarko, Andrew P; Mannering, Fred L

2008-03-01

There has been an abundance of research that has used Poisson models and its variants (negative binomial and zero-inflated models) to improve our understanding of the factors that affect accident frequencies on roadway segments. This study explores the application of an alternate method, tobit regression, by viewing vehicle accident rates directly (instead of frequencies) as a continuous variable that is left-censored at zero. Using data from vehicle accidents on Indiana interstates, the estimation results show that many factors relating to pavement condition, roadway geometrics and traffic characteristics significantly affect vehicle accident rates.

Assessment of risk due to the use of carbon fiber composites in commercial and general aviation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fiksel, J.; Rosenfield, D.; Kalelkar, A.

1980-01-01

The development of a national risk profile for the total annual aircraft losses due to carbon fiber composite (CFC) usage through 1993 is discussed. The profile was developed using separate simulation methods for commercial and general aviation aircraft. A Monte Carlo method which was used to assess the risk in commercial aircraft is described. The method projects the potential usage of CFC through 1993, investigates the incidence of commercial aircraft fires, models the potential release and dispersion of carbon fibers from a fire, and estimates potential economic losses due to CFC damaging electronic equipment. The simulation model for the general aviation aircraft is described. The model emphasizes variations in facility locations and release conditions, estimates distribution of CFC released in general aviation aircraft accidents, and tabulates the failure probabilities and aggregate economic losses in the accidents.

Methodological guidelines for developing accident modification functions.

PubMed

Elvik, Rune

2015-07-01

This paper proposes methodological guidelines for developing accident modification functions. An accident modification function is a mathematical function describing systematic variation in the effects of road safety measures. The paper describes ten guidelines. An example is given of how to use the guidelines. The importance of exploratory analysis and an iterative approach in developing accident modification functions is stressed. The example shows that strict compliance with all the guidelines may be difficult, but represents a level of stringency that should be strived for. Currently the main limitations in developing accident modification functions are the small number of good evaluation studies and the often huge variation in estimates of effect. It is therefore still not possible to develop accident modification functions for very many road safety measures. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicted spatio-temporal dynamics of radiocesium deposited onto forests following the Fukushima nuclear accident

PubMed Central

Hashimoto, Shoji; Matsuura, Toshiya; Nanko, Kazuki; Linkov, Igor; Shaw, George; Kaneko, Shinji

2013-01-01

The majority of the area contaminated by the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant accident is covered by forest. To facilitate effective countermeasure strategies to mitigate forest contamination, we simulated the spatio-temporal dynamics of radiocesium deposited into Japanese forest ecosystems in 2011 using a model that was developed after the Chernobyl accident in 1986. The simulation revealed that the radiocesium inventories in tree and soil surface organic layer components drop rapidly during the first two years after the fallout. Over a period of one to two years, the radiocesium is predicted to move from the tree and surface organic soil to the mineral soil, which eventually becomes the largest radiocesium reservoir within forest ecosystems. Although the uncertainty of our simulations should be considered, the results provide a basis for understanding and anticipating the future dynamics of radiocesium in Japanese forests following the Fukushima accident. PMID:23995073

Development and test of selected model pedestrian safety regulations

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1981-04-01

Two model regulations to remove parking--one from suburban streets in daylight hours and one on the last 50 feet of the approach to crosswalks--were designed in previous work to prevent pedestrian dart and dash accidents by removing screening vehicle...

A new approach to modeling aviation accidents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rao, Arjun Harsha

General Aviation (GA) is a catchall term for all aircraft operations in the US that are not categorized as commercial operations or military flights. GA aircraft account for almost 97% of the US civil aviation fleet. Unfortunately, GA flights have a much higher fatal accident rate than commercial operations. Recent estimates by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) showed that the GA fatal accident rate has remained relatively unchanged between 2010 and 2015, with 1566 fatal accidents accounting for 2650 fatalities. Several research efforts have been directed towards betters understanding the causes of GA accidents. Many of these efforts use National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) accident reports and data. Unfortunately, while these studies easily identify the top types of accidents (e.g., inflight loss of control (LOC)), they usually cannot identify why these accidents are happening. Most NTSB narrative reports for GA accidents are very short (many are only one paragraph long), and do not contain much information on the causes (likely because the causes were not fully identified). NTSB investigators also code each accident using an event-based coding system, which should facilitate identification of patterns and trends in causation, given the high number of GA accidents each year. However, this system is susceptible to investigator interpretation and error, meaning that two investigators may code the same accident differently, or omit applicable codes. To facilitate a potentially better understanding of GA accident causation, this research develops a state-based approach to check for logical gaps or omissions in NTSB accident records, and potentially fills-in the omissions. The state-based approach offers more flexibility as it moves away from the conventional event-based representation of accidents, which classifies events in accidents into several categories such as causes, contributing factors, findings, occurrences, and phase of flight. The method views aviation accidents as a set of hazardous states of a system (pilot and aircraft), and triggers that cause the system to move between hazardous states. I used the NTSB's accident coding manual (that contains nearly 4000 different codes) to develop a "dictionary" of hazardous states, triggers, and information codes. Then, I created the "grammar", or a set of rules, that: (1) orders the hazardous states in each accident; and, (2) links the hazardous states using the appropriate triggers. This approach: (1) provides a more correct count of the causes for accidents in the NTSB database; and, (2) checks for gaps or omissions in NTSB accident data, and fills in some of these gaps using logic-based rules. These rules also help identify and count causes for accidents that were not discernable from previous analyses of historical accident data. I apply the model to 6200 helicopter accidents that occurred in the US between 1982 and 2015. First, I identify the states and triggers that are most likely to be associated with fatal and non-fatal accidents. The results suggest that non-fatal accidents, which account for approximately 84% of the accidents, provide valuable opportunities to learn about the causes for accidents. Next, I investigate the causes of inflight loss of control using both a conventional approach and using the state-based approach. The conventional analysis provides little insight into the causal mechanism for LOC. For instance, the top cause of LOC is "aircraft control/directional control not maintained", which does not provide any insight. In contrast, the state-based analysis showed that pilots' tendency to clip objects frequently triggered LOC (16.7% of LOC accidents)--this finding was not directly discernable from conventional analyses. Finally, I investigate the causes for improper autorotations using both a conventional approach and the state-based approach. The conventional approach uses modifiers (e.g., "improper", "misjudged") associated with "24520: Autorotation" to identify improper autorotations in the pre-2008 system. In the psot-2008 system, the NTSB represents autorotation as a phase of flight, which has no modifier--making it impossible to determine if the autorotation was unsuccessful. In contrast, the state-based analysis identified 632 improper autorotation accidents, compared to 174 with a conventional analysis. Results from the state-based analysis show that not maintaining rotor RPM and improper flare were among the top reasons for improper autorotations. The presence of the "not possible" trigger in 11.6% of improper autorotations, suggests that it was impossible to make an autorotative landing. Improper use of collective is the sixth most frequent trigger for improper autorotation. Correct use of collective pitch control is crucial to maintain rotor RPM during an autorotation (considering that engines are generally not operational during autorotations).

Containment Sodium Chemistry Models in MELCOR.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Louie, David; Humphries, Larry L.; Denman, Matthew R

To meet regulatory needs for sodium fast reactors’ future development, including licensing requirements, Sandia National Laboratories is modernizing MELCOR, a severe accident analysis computer code developed for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Specifically, Sandia is modernizing MELCOR to include the capability to model sodium reactors. However, Sandia’s modernization effort primarily focuses on the containment response aspects of the sodium reactor accidents. Sandia began modernizing MELCOR in 2013 to allow a sodium coolant, rather than water, for conventional light water reactors. In the past three years, Sandia has been implementing the sodium chemistry containment models in CONTAIN-LMR, a legacy NRCmore » code, into MELCOR. These chemistry models include spray fire, pool fire and atmosphere chemistry models. Only the first two chemistry models have been implemented though it is intended to implement all these models into MELCOR. A new package called “NAC” has been created to manage the sodium chemistry model more efficiently. In 2017 Sandia began validating the implemented models in MELCOR by simulating available experiments. The CONTAIN-LMR sodium models include sodium atmosphere chemistry and sodium-concrete interaction models. This paper presents sodium property models, the implemented models, implementation issues, and a path towards validation against existing experimental data.« less

Toxicology of hydrogen fluoride in relation to major accident hazards.

PubMed

Meldrum, M

1999-10-01

A major industrial accident involving the release of hydrogen fluoride has the potential to cause serious injury and possibly death in the surrounding human population. Given the potential for such serious and large-scale effects, there is a need for scientifically based risk assessments for determining appropriate on-site risk control measures, as well as for informing off-site emergency plans and land-use development decisions. Within Great Britain, the Health and Safety Executive (HSE) has the statutory responsibility for providing land-use planning advice in the vicinity of major accident hazard sites. The advice is based on quantified assessment of the individual risk of exposure to a specified amount of the toxic substance. Among other things this requires a consistent, reliable, and transparent understanding of the major hazard toxicology of the substance concerned. An assessment of the toxicology of hydrogen fluoride in relation to major accident hazards, based on conventional inhalation toxicity studies, was published by HSE in 1993. Recently, studies have been reported in which rats inhaled hydrogen fluoride via a mouthpiece attached to an endotracheal cannula. HSE has explored the use of this "mouth-breathing" rat model as a possible basis for human health risk assessment for hydrogen fluoride in the context of major accident hazards. A number of uncertainties in the use of this animal model have been identified that warrant caution in the use of this model for regulatory purposes. Overall, the results from the "mouth-breathing" rat model did not lead to a change in the HSE assessment of hydrogen fluoride, which remains based on experimental data obtained following "mainstream" toxicological practices. Copyright 1999 Academic Press.

Geo-Space observation of atmospheric environmental effects associated with 2011 Fukushima nuclear accident

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulinets, Sergey; Ouzounov, Dimitar; Hernandez-Pajares, Manuel; Hattori, Katsumi; Garcia-Rigo, Alberto

2014-05-01

Our approach of using multiple geo-space observation is based on the LAIC (Lithosphere- Atmosphere- Ionosphere Coupling) model and the gained experience during similar analysis of Three-Mile Island and Chernobyl accidents. We do collect a unique dataset of geophysical data for the period around the time of the most active phase of Fukushima explosions (from 12 March till 31 March, 71-90 DOY). We analyzed following data sets: (i) ground temperature and relative humidity data from the JMA network of Japan, (ii) satellite meteorological data and assimilative models to obtain the integrated water vapor chemical potential; (iii) the infrared emission on the top of atmosphere measured by NOAA and GEOS satellites estimated as Outgoing Longwave Radiation; and (iv) multiple ionospheric measurements , including ground based ionosondes, GPS vTEC from GEONET network, COSMIC/FORMOSAT constellation occultation data, JASON satellite TEC measurements, and tomography reconstruction technique to obtain 3D distribution of electron concentration around the Fukushima power plant. As a result we were able to detect the anomalies in different geophysical parameters representing the dynamics of the Fukushima nuclear accident development and the effects on the atmospheric environment. Their temporal evolution demonstrates the synergy in different atmospheric anomalies development what implies the existence of the common physical mechanism described by the LAIC model.

Usefulness of high resolution coastal models for operational oil spill forecast: the Full City accident

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Broström, G.; Carrasco, A.; Hole, L. R.; Dick, S.; Janssen, F.; Mattsson, J.; Berger, S.

2011-06-01

Oil spill modeling is considered to be an important decision support system (DeSS) useful for remedial action in case of accidents, as well as for designing the environmental monitoring system that is frequently set up after major accidents. Many accidents take place in coastal areas implying that low resolution basin scale ocean models is of limited use for predicting the trajectories of an oil spill. In this study, we target the oil spill in connection with the Full City accident on the Norwegian south coast and compare three different oil spill models for the area. The result of the analysis is that all models do a satisfactory job. The "standard" operational model for the area is shown to have severe flaws but including an analysis based on a higher resolution model (1.5 km resolution) for the area the model system show results that compare well with observations. The study also shows that an ensemble using three different models is useful when predicting/analyzing oil spill in coastal areas.

Identifying the Safety Factors over Traffic Signs in State Roads using a Panel Quantile Regression Approach.

PubMed

Šarić, Željko; Xu, Xuecai; Duan, Li; Babić, Darko

2018-06-20

This study intended to investigate the interactions between accident rate and traffic signs in state roads located in Croatia, and accommodate the heterogeneity attributed to unobserved factors. The data from 130 state roads between 2012 and 2016 were collected from Traffic Accident Database System maintained by the Republic of Croatia Ministry of the Interior. To address the heterogeneity, a panel quantile regression model was proposed, in which quantile regression model offers a more complete view and a highly comprehensive analysis of the relationship between accident rate and traffic signs, while the panel data model accommodates the heterogeneity attributed to unobserved factors. Results revealed that (1) low visibility of material damage (MD) and death or injured (DI) increased the accident rate; (2) the number of mandatory signs and the number of warning signs were more likely to reduce the accident rate; (3)average speed limit and the number of invalid traffic signs per km exhibited a high accident rate. To our knowledge, it's the first attempt to analyze the interactions between accident consequences and traffic signs by employing a panel quantile regression model; by involving the visibility, the present study demonstrates that the low visibility causes a relatively higher risk of MD and DI; It is noteworthy that average speed limit corresponds with accident rate positively; The number of mandatory signs and the number of warning signs are more likely to reduce the accident rate; The number of invalid traffic signs per km are significant for accident rate, thus regular maintenance should be kept for a safer roadway environment.

Risk factors for accident death in the U.S. Army, 2004-2009.

PubMed

Lewandowski-Romps, Lisa; Peterson, Christopher; Berglund, Patricia A; Collins, Stacey; Cox, Kenneth; Hauret, Keith; Jones, Bruce; Kessler, Ronald C; Mitchell, Colter; Park, Nansook; Schoenbaum, Michael; Stein, Murray B; Ursano, Robert J; Heeringa, Steven G

2014-12-01

Accidents are one of the leading causes of death among U.S. active-duty Army soldiers. Evidence-based approaches to injury prevention could be strengthened by adding person-level characteristics (e.g., demographics) to risk models tested on diverse soldier samples studied over time. To identify person-level risk indicators of accident deaths in Regular Army soldiers during a time frame of intense military operations, and to discriminate risk of not-line-of-duty from line-of-duty accident deaths. Administrative data acquired from multiple Army/Department of Defense sources for active duty Army soldiers during 2004-2009 were analyzed in 2013. Logistic regression modeling was used to identify person-level sociodemographic, service-related, occupational, and mental health predictors of accident deaths. Delayed rank progression or demotion and being male, unmarried, in a combat arms specialty, and of low rank/service length increased odds of accident death for enlisted soldiers. Unique to officers was high risk associated with aviation specialties. Accident death risk decreased over time for currently deployed, enlisted soldiers and increased for those never deployed. Mental health diagnosis was associated with risk only for previous and never-deployed, enlisted soldiers. Models did not discriminate not-line-of-duty from line-of-duty accident deaths. Adding more refined person-level and situational risk indicators to current models could enhance understanding of accident death risk specific to soldier rank and deployment status. Stable predictors could help identify high risk of accident deaths in future cohorts of Regular Army soldiers. Copyright © 2014 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. All rights reserved.

Risk Factors for Accident Death in the U.S. Army, 2004–2009

PubMed Central

Lewandowski-Romps, Lisa; Peterson, Christopher; Berglund, Patricia A.; Collins, Stacey; Cox, Kenneth; Hauret, Keith; Jones, Bruce; Kessler, Ronald C.; Mitchell, Colter; Park, Nansook; Schoenbaum, Michael; Stein, Murray B.; Ursano, Robert J.; Heeringa, Steven G.

2014-01-01

Background Accidents are one of the leading causes of death among U.S. active duty Army soldiers. Evidence-based approaches to injury prevention could be strengthened by adding person-level characteristics (e.g., demographics) to risk models tested on diverse soldier samples studied over time. Purpose To identify person-level risk indicators of accident deaths in Regular Army soldiers during a time frame of intense military operations, and to discriminate risk of not-line-of-duty (NLOD) from line-of-duty (LOD) accident deaths. Methods Administrative data acquired from multiple Army/Department of Defense sources for active duty Army soldiers during 2004–2009 were analyzed in 2013. Logistic regression modeling was used to identify person-level sociodemographic, service-related, occupational, and mental health predictors of accident deaths. Results Delayed rank progression or demotion and being male, unmarried, in a combat arms specialty, and of low rank/service length increased odds of accident death for enlisted soldiers. Unique to officers was high risk associated with aviation specialties. Accident death risk decreased over time for currently deployed, enlisted soldiers while increasing for those never deployed. Mental health diagnosis was associated with risk only for previous and never-deployed, enlisted soldiers. Models did not discriminate NLOD from LOD accident deaths. Conclusions Adding more refined person-level and situational risk indicators to current models could enhance understanding of accident death risk specific to soldier rank and deployment status. Stable predictors could help identify high risk of accident deaths in future cohorts of Regular Army soldiers. PMID:25441238

Assessing Chinese coach drivers' fitness to drive: The development of a toolkit based on cognition measurements.

PubMed

Wang, Huarong; Mo, Xian; Wang, Ying; Liu, Ruixue; Qiu, Peiyu; Dai, Jiajun

2016-10-01

Road traffic accidents resulting in group deaths and injuries are often related to coach drivers' inappropriate operations and behaviors. Thus, the evaluation of coach drivers' fitness to drive is an important measure for improving the safety of public transportation. Previous related research focused on drivers' age and health condition. Comprehensive studies about commercial drivers' cognitive capacities are limited. This study developed a toolkit consisting of nine cognition measurements across driver perception/sensation, attention, and reaction. A total of 1413 licensed coach drivers in Jiangsu Province, China were investigated and tested. Results indicated that drivers with accident history within three years performed overwhelmingly worse (p<0.001) on dark adaptation, dynamic visual acuity, depth perception, attention concentration, attention span, and significantly worse (p<0.05) on reaction to complex tasks compared with drivers with clear accident records. These findings supported that in the assessment of fitness to drive, cognitive capacities are sensitive to the detection of drivers with accident proneness. We first developed a simple evaluation model based on the percentile distribution of all single measurements, which defined the normal range of "fit-to-drive" by eliminating a 5% tail of each measurement. A comprehensive evaluation model was later constructed based on the kernel principal component analysis, in which the eliminated 5% tail was calculated from on integrated index. Methods to categorizing qualified, good, and excellent coach drivers and criteria for evaluating and training Chinese coach drivers' fitness to drive were also proposed. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analysis of pellet cladding interaction and creep of U 3SIi2 fuel for use in light water reactors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Metzger, Kathryn E.

Following the accident at the Fukushima plant, enhancing the accident tolerance of the light water reactor (LWR) fleet became a topic of serious discussion. Under the direction of congress, the DOE office of Nuclear Energy added accident tolerant fuel development as a primary component to the existing Advanced Fuels Program. The DOE defines accident tolerant fuels as fuels that "in comparison with the standard UO2- Zircaloy system currently used by the nuclear industry, can tolerate loss of active cooling in the reactor core for a considerably longer time period (depending on the LWR system and accident scenario) while maintaining or improving the fuel performance during normal operations, operational transients, as well as design-basis and beyond design-basis events." To be economically viable, proposed accident tolerant fuels and claddings should be backward compatible with LWR designs, provide significant operating cost improvements such as power uprates, increased fuel burnup, or increased cycle length. In terms of safety, an alternative fuel pellet must have resistance to water corrosion comparable to UO2, thermal conductivity equal to or larger than that of UO2, and a melting temperature that allows the material to remain solid under power reactor conditions. Among the candidates, U3Si2 has a number of advantageous thermophysical properties, including; high density, high thermal conductivity at room temperature, and a high melting temperature. These properties support its use as an accident tolerant fuel while its high uranium density is capable of supporting uprates to the LWR fleet. This research characterizes U3Si2 pellets and analyzes U3Si2 under light water reactor conditions using the fuel performance code BISON. While some thermophysical properties for U3Si2 have been found in the literature, the irradiation behavior is sparse and limited to experience with dispersion fuels. Accordingly, the creep behavior for U3Si2 has been unknown, making it difficult to predict fuel-cladding mechanical behavior. This information is essential for designing accident tolerant fuel systems where ceramic claddings, like silicon carbide (SiC) are proposed. This research provides a model for both the thermal and irradiation creep behavior for U3Si2. This body of research is comprised of both experimental and modeling components. Characterization of the fuel microstructure includes; optical microscopy with pore and grain size analysis, helium pycnometry for density determination, mercury intrusion porosimetry, compositional analysis in the form of XRD, second phase identification using EDX, electrical resistance measurement via four point probe, determination of hardness and toughness through Vickers indentation testing, and determination of elastic properties using the impulse excitation method. Post-sintering grain size data allowed for the determination of grain boundary activation energy and diffusion coefficients, which were used to develop creep models. This was extended to lattice and irradiation enhanced diffusion in order to develop a U3Si2 creep model over thermal and irradiation creep regimes. In addition to the creep model, thermal and swelling behavior models for U3Si2 were implemented into the BISON fuel performance code. A series of simulations evaluated the performance and behavior of U3Si2 under typical light water reactor conditions with advanced SiC ceramic cladding. Simulation results show that fuel creep relieves stress in the ceramic cladding and postpones the. moment of fuel-clad contact. However, the stress reduction to the cladding is minimal because the fuel creep rate is low while the swelling rate is high. Future work should include the investigation of monolithic U3Si2 irradiation swelling since the current model relies upon the swelling data of U3Si2 particles in a metallic dispersion fuel. Additionally, planned thermal creep testing at the University of South Carolina can provide confirmation of the U3Si2 creep model contained herein.

Traffic dynamics around weaving section influenced by accident: Cellular automata approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kong, Lin-Peng; Li, Xin-Gang; Lam, William H. K.

2015-07-01

The weaving section, as a typical bottleneck, is one source of vehicle conflicts and an accident-prone area. Traffic accident will block lanes and the road capacity will be reduced. Several models have been established to study the dynamics around traffic bottlenecks. However, little attention has been paid to study the complex traffic dynamics influenced by the combined effects of bottleneck and accident. This paper presents a cellular automaton model to characterize accident-induced traffic behavior around the weaving section. Some effective control measures are proposed and verified for traffic management under accident condition. The total flux as a function of inflow rates, the phase diagrams, the spatial-temporal diagrams, and the density and velocity profiles are presented to analyze the impact of accident. It was shown that the proposed control measures for weaving traffic can improve the capacity of weaving section under both normal and accident conditions; the accidents occurring on median lane in the weaving section are more inclined to cause traffic jam and reduce road capacity; the capacity of weaving section will be greatly reduced when the accident happens downstream the weaving section.

Severe Accident Scoping Simulations of Accident Tolerant Fuel Concepts for BWRs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Robb, Kevin R.

2015-08-01

Accident-tolerant fuels (ATFs) are fuels and/or cladding that, in comparison with the standard uranium dioxide Zircaloy system, can tolerate loss of active cooling in the core for a considerably longer time period while maintaining or improving the fuel performance during normal operations [1]. It is important to note that the currently used uranium dioxide Zircaloy fuel system tolerates design basis accidents (and anticipated operational occurrences and normal operation) as prescribed by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Previously, preliminary simulations of the plant response have been performed under a range of accident scenarios using various ATF cladding concepts and fully ceramicmore » microencapsulated fuel. Design basis loss of coolant accidents (LOCAs) and station blackout (SBO) severe accidents were analyzed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) for boiling water reactors (BWRs) [2]. Researchers have investigated the effects of thermal conductivity on design basis accidents [3], investigated silicon carbide (SiC) cladding [4], as well as the effects of ATF concepts on the late stage accident progression [5]. These preliminary analyses were performed to provide initial insight into the possible improvements that ATF concepts could provide and to identify issues with respect to modeling ATF concepts. More recently, preliminary analyses for a range of ATF concepts have been evaluated internationally for LOCA and severe accident scenarios for the Chinese CPR1000 [6] and the South Korean OPR-1000 [7] pressurized water reactors (PWRs). In addition to these scoping studies, a common methodology and set of performance metrics were developed to compare and support prioritizing ATF concepts [8]. A proposed ATF concept is based on iron-chromium-aluminum alloys (FeCrAl) [9]. With respect to enhancing accident tolerance, FeCrAl alloys have substantially slower oxidation kinetics compared to the zirconium alloys typically employed. During a severe accident, FeCrAl would tend to generate heat and hydrogen from oxidation at a slower rate compared to the zirconium-based alloys in use today. The previous study, [2], of the FeCrAl ATF concept during station blackout (SBO) severe accident scenarios in BWRs was based on simulating short term SBO (STSBO), long term SBO (LTSBO), and modified SBO scenarios occurring in a BWR-4 reactor with MARK-I containment. The analysis indicated that FeCrAl had the potential to delay the onset of fuel failure by a few hours depending on the scenario, and it could delay lower head failure by several hours. The analysis demonstrated reduced in-vessel hydrogen production. However, the work was preliminary and was based on limited knowledge of material properties for FeCrAl. Limitations of the MELCOR code were identified for direct use in modeling ATF concepts. This effort used an older version of MELCOR (1.8.5). Since these analyses, the BWR model has been updated for use in MELCOR 1.8.6 [10], and more representative material properties for FeCrAl have been modeled. Sections 2 4 present updated analyses for the FeCrAl ATF concept response during severe accidents in a BWR. The purpose of the study is to estimate the potential gains afforded by the FeCrAl ATF concept during BWR SBO scenarios.« less

Occurrence and countermeasures of urban power grid accident

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Wang; Tao, Zhang

2018-03-01

With the advance of technology, the development of network communication and the extensive use of power grids, people can get to know power grid accidents around the world through the network timely. Power grid accidents occur frequently. Large-scale power system blackout and casualty accidents caused by electric shock are also fairly commonplace. All of those accidents have seriously endangered the property and personal safety of the country and people, and the development of society and economy is severely affected by power grid accidents. Through the researches on several typical cases of power grid accidents at home and abroad in recent years and taking these accident cases as the research object, this paper will analyze the three major factors that cause power grid accidents at present. At the same time, combining with various factors and impacts caused by power grid accidents, the paper will put forward corresponding solutions and suggestions to prevent the occurrence of the accident and lower the impact of the accident.

NASA Standard for Models and Simulations: Philosophy and Requirements Overview

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Blattnig, Steve R.; Luckring, James M.; Morrison, Joseph H.; Sylvester, Andre J.; Tripathi, Ram K.; Zang, Thomas A.

2013-01-01

Following the Columbia Accident Investigation Board report, the NASA Administrator chartered an executive team (known as the Diaz Team) to identify those CAIB report elements with NASA-wide applicability and to develop corrective measures to address each element. One such measure was the development of a standard for the development, documentation, and operation of models and simulations. This report describes the philosophy and requirements overview of the resulting NASA Standard for Models and Simulations.

NASA Standard for Models and Simulations: Philosophy and Requirements Overview

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Blattnig, St3eve R.; Luckring, James M.; Morrison, Joseph H.; Sylvester, Andre J.; Tripathi, Ram K.; Zang, Thomas A.

2009-01-01

Following the Columbia Accident Investigation Board report, the NASA Administrator chartered an executive team (known as the Diaz Team) to identify those CAIB report elements with NASA-wide applicability and to develop corrective measures to address each element. One such measure was the development of a standard for the development, documentation, and operation of models and simulations. This report describes the philosophy and requirements overview of the resulting NASA Standard for Models and Simulations.

Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Late health effects uncertain assessment. Volume 2: Appendices

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Little, M.P.; Muirhead, C.R.; Goossens, L.H.J.

1997-12-01

The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library ofmore » uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA late health effects models. This volume contains appendices that include (1) a summary of the MACCS and COSYMA consequence codes, (2) the elicitation questionnaires and case structures, (3) the rationales and results for the expert panel on late health effects, (4) short biographies of the experts, and (5) the aggregated results of their responses.« less

Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Uncertainty assessment for internal dosimetry. Volume 2: Appendices

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P.; Cooke, R.M.

1998-04-01

The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library ofmore » uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA internal dosimetry models. This volume contains appendices that include (1) a summary of the MACCS and COSYMA consequence codes, (2) the elicitation questionnaires and case structures, (3) the rationales and results for the panel on internal dosimetry, (4) short biographies of the experts, and (5) the aggregated results of their responses.« less

Identification and development of countermeasures for bicyclist/motor-vehicle problem types. Volume 3, Model regulations

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1982-08-01

A detailed re-analysis of previously collected bicycle/motor-vehicle accident data (Cross and Fisher, 1977) was undertaken to define potential countermeasures. Countermeasure development was then undertaken in the areas of Training (see Volume I), Pu...

Development of a three-dimensional transient code for reactivity-initiated events of BWRs (boiling water reactors) - Models and code verifications

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Uematsu, Hitoshi; Yamamoto, Toru; Izutsu, Sadayuki

1990-06-01

A reactivity-initiated event is a design-basis accident for the safety analysis of boiling water reactors. It is defined as a rapid transient of reactor power caused by a reactivity insertion of over $1.0 due to a postulated drop or abnormal withdrawal of the control rod from the core. Strong space-dependent feedback effects are associated with the local power increase due to control rod movement. A realistic treatment of the core status in a transient by a code with a detailed core model is recommended in evaluating this event. A three-dimensional transient code, ARIES, has been developed to meet this need.more » The code simulates the event with three-dimensional neutronics, coupled with multichannel thermal hydraulics, based on a nonequilibrium separated flow model. The experimental data obtained in reactivity accident tests performed with the SPERT III-E core are used to verify the entire code, including thermal-hydraulic models.« less

Usefulness of high resolution coastal models for operational oil spill forecast: the "Full City" accident

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Broström, G.; Carrasco, A.; Hole, L. R.; Dick, S.; Janssen, F.; Mattsson, J.; Berger, S.

2011-11-01

Oil spill modeling is considered to be an important part of a decision support system (DeSS) for oil spill combatment and is useful for remedial action in case of accidents, as well as for designing the environmental monitoring system that is frequently set up after major accidents. Many accidents take place in coastal areas, implying that low resolution basin scale ocean models are of limited use for predicting the trajectories of an oil spill. In this study, we target the oil spill in connection with the "Full City" accident on the Norwegian south coast and compare operational simulations from three different oil spill models for the area. The result of the analysis is that all models do a satisfactory job. The "standard" operational model for the area is shown to have severe flaws, but by applying ocean forcing data of higher resolution (1.5 km resolution), the model system shows results that compare well with observations. The study also shows that an ensemble of results from the three different models is useful when predicting/analyzing oil spill in coastal areas.

Model of relationship between personal factors and Occupational Health and Safety (OHS) management toward unsafe actions: a case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Syamtinningrum, M. D. P.; Partiwi, S. G.; Dewi, D. S.

2018-04-01

One indicator of a good company is when a safe business environment can be well maintained. In this work environment, the number of industrial accidents is minimum. Industrial accidents are the incidents that occurred in the workplace, especially in industrial area. Industrial accidents are generally caused by two main reasons, unsafe actions & unsafe conditions. Some research indicates that unsafe actions significantly affect the incidence in the workplace. Unsafe action is a failure to follow the proper procedures and requirements, which is led into accidents. From several previous studies it can be concluded that personal factors & OHS management are two most influential factors that affect unsafe actions. However, their relationship in influencing unsafe actions is not fully understood. Based on this reason the authors want to investigate the effect of personal factors and OHS management toward unsafe actions to workers. For this purpose, a company is selected as a case study. In this research, analyses were done by using univariate test, bivariate correlation and linear regression. The results of this study proves that two indicators of personal factors (i.e. knowledge of OHS & OHS training) and OHS management have significant effect on unsafe actions but in negative direction, while two indicators of personal factors (i.e. workload & fatigue) have positive direction of effect on unsafe actions. In addition, this research has developed a mathematical model that can be used to calculate and predict the value of unsafe actions performed by the worker. By using this model, the company will able to take preventive actions toward unsafe actions to reduce workers accidents.

Novel method for estimation of the indoor-to-outdoor airborne radioactivity ratio following the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident.

PubMed

Tan, Yanliang; Ishikawa, Tetsuo; Janik, Miroslaw; Tokonami, Shinji; Hosoda, Masahiro; Sorimachi, Atsuyuki; Kearfott, Kimberlee

2015-12-01

The accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) in Japan resulted in significant releases of fission products. While substantial data exist concerning outdoor air radioactivity following the accident, the resulting indoor radioactivity remains pure speculation without a proper method for estimating the ratio of the indoor to outdoor airborne radioactivity, termed the airborne sheltering factor (ASF). Lacking a meaningful value of the ASF, it is difficult to assess the inhalation doses to residents and evacuees even when outdoor radionuclide concentrations are available. A simple model was developed and the key parameters needed to estimate the ASF were obtained through data fitting of selected indoor and outdoor airborne radioactivity measurement data obtained following the accident at a single location. Using the new model with values of the air exchange rate, interior air volume, and the inner surface area of the dwellings, the ASF can be estimated for a variety of dwelling types. Assessment of the inhalation dose to individuals readily follows from the value of the ASF, the person's indoor occupancy factor, and the measured outdoor radioactivity concentration. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Updating source term and atmospheric dispersion simulations for the dose reconstruction in Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station Accident

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nagai, Haruyasu; Terada, Hiroaki; Tsuduki, Katsunori; Katata, Genki; Ota, Masakazu; Furuno, Akiko; Akari, Shusaku

2017-09-01

In order to assess the radiological dose to the public resulting from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station (FDNPS) accident in Japan, especially for the early phase of the accident when no measured data are available for that purpose, the spatial and temporal distribution of radioactive materials in the environment are reconstructed by computer simulations. In this study, by refining the source term of radioactive materials discharged into the atmosphere and modifying the atmospheric transport, dispersion and deposition model (ATDM), the atmospheric dispersion simulation of radioactive materials is improved. Then, a database of spatiotemporal distribution of radioactive materials in the air and on the ground surface is developed from the output of the simulation. This database is used in other studies for the dose assessment by coupling with the behavioral pattern of evacuees from the FDNPS accident. By the improvement of the ATDM simulation to use a new meteorological model and sophisticated deposition scheme, the ATDM simulations reproduced well the 137Cs and 131I deposition patterns. For the better reproducibility of dispersion processes, further refinement of the source term was carried out by optimizing it to the improved ATDM simulation by using new monitoring data.

The relationships between organizational and individual variables to on-the-job driver accidents and accident-free kilometres.

PubMed

Caird, J K; Kline, T J

2004-12-01

Highway fatalities are the leading cause of fatal work injuries in the US, accounting for approximately 1 in 4 of the 5900 job-related deaths during 2001. The present study focused on the contribution of organizational factors and driver behaviours to on-the-job driving accidents in a large Western Canadian corporation. A structural equation modelling (SEM) approach was used which allows researchers to test a complex set of relationships within a global theoretical framework. A number of scales were used to assess organizational support, driver errors, and driver behaviours. The sample of professional drivers that participated allowed the recording of on-the-job accidents and accident-free kilometres from their personnel files. The pattern of relationships in the fitted model, after controlling for exposure and social desirability, provides insight into the role of organizational support, planning, environment adaptations, fatigue, speed, errors and moving citations to on-the-job accidents and accident-free kilometres. For example, organizational support affected the capacity to plan. Time to plan work-related driving was found to predict accidents, fatigue and adaptations to the environment. Other interesting model paths, SEM limitations, future research and recommendations are elaborated.

Analysis of stationary and dynamic factors affecting highway accident occurrence: A dynamic correlated grouped random parameters binary logit approach.

PubMed

Fountas, Grigorios; Sarwar, Md Tawfiq; Anastasopoulos, Panagiotis Ch; Blatt, Alan; Majka, Kevin

2018-04-01

Traditional accident analysis typically explores non-time-varying (stationary) factors that affect accident occurrence on roadway segments. However, the impact of time-varying (dynamic) factors is not thoroughly investigated. This paper seeks to simultaneously identify pre-crash stationary and dynamic factors of accident occurrence, while accounting for unobserved heterogeneity. Using highly disaggregate information for the potential dynamic factors, and aggregate data for the traditional stationary elements, a dynamic binary random parameters (mixed) logit framework is employed. With this approach, the dynamic nature of weather-related, and driving- and pavement-condition information is jointly investigated with traditional roadway geometric and traffic characteristics. To additionally account for the combined effect of the dynamic and stationary factors on the accident occurrence, the developed random parameters logit framework allows for possible correlations among the random parameters. The analysis is based on crash and non-crash observations between 2011 and 2013, drawn from urban and rural highway segments in the state of Washington. The findings show that the proposed methodological framework can account for both stationary and dynamic factors affecting accident occurrence probabilities, for panel effects, for unobserved heterogeneity through the use of random parameters, and for possible correlation among the latter. The comparative evaluation among the correlated grouped random parameters, the uncorrelated random parameters logit models, and their fixed parameters logit counterpart, demonstrate the potential of the random parameters modeling, in general, and the benefits of the correlated grouped random parameters approach, specifically, in terms of statistical fit and explanatory power. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

An novel identification method of the environmental risk sources for surface water pollution accidents in chemical industrial parks.

PubMed

Peng, Jianfeng; Song, Yonghui; Yuan, Peng; Xiao, Shuhu; Han, Lu

2013-07-01

The chemical industry is a major source of various pollution accidents. Improving the management level of risk sources for pollution accidents has become an urgent demand for most industrialized countries. In pollution accidents, the released chemicals harm the receptors to some extent depending on their sensitivity or susceptibility. Therefore, identifying the potential risk sources from such a large number of chemical enterprises has become pressingly urgent. Based on the simulation of the whole accident process, a novel and expandable identification method for risk sources causing water pollution accidents is presented. The newly developed approach, by analyzing and stimulating the whole process of a pollution accident between sources and receptors, can be applied to identify risk sources, especially on the nationwide scale. Three major types of losses, such as social, economic and ecological losses, were normalized, analyzed and used for overall consequence modeling. A specific case study area, located in a chemical industry park (CIP) along the Yangtze River in Jiangsu Province, China, was selected to test the potential of the identification method. The results showed that there were four risk sources for pollution accidents in this CIP. Aniline leakage in the HS Chemical Plant would lead to the most serious impact on the surrounding water environment. This potential accident would severely damage the ecosystem up to 3.8 km downstream of Yangtze River, and lead to pollution over a distance stretching to 73.7 km downstream. The proposed method is easily extended to the nationwide identification of potential risk sources.

Learning lessons from Natech accidents - the eNATECH accident database

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krausmann, Elisabeth; Girgin, Serkan

2016-04-01

When natural hazards impact industrial facilities that house or process hazardous materials, fires, explosions and toxic releases can occur. This type of accident is commonly referred to as Natech accident. In order to prevent the recurrence of accidents or to better mitigate their consequences, lessons-learned type studies using available accident data are usually carried out. Through post-accident analysis, conclusions can be drawn on the most common damage and failure modes and hazmat release paths, particularly vulnerable storage and process equipment, and the hazardous materials most commonly involved in these types of accidents. These analyses also lend themselves to identifying technical and organisational risk-reduction measures that require improvement or are missing. Industrial accident databases are commonly used for retrieving sets of Natech accident case histories for further analysis. These databases contain accident data from the open literature, government authorities or in-company sources. The quality of reported information is not uniform and exhibits different levels of detail and accuracy. This is due to the difficulty of finding qualified information sources, especially in situations where accident reporting by the industry or by authorities is not compulsory, e.g. when spill quantities are below the reporting threshold. Data collection has then to rely on voluntary record keeping often by non-experts. The level of detail is particularly non-uniform for Natech accident data depending on whether the consequences of the Natech event were major or minor, and whether comprehensive information was available for reporting. In addition to the reporting bias towards high-consequence events, industrial accident databases frequently lack information on the severity of the triggering natural hazard, as well as on failure modes that led to the hazmat release. This makes it difficult to reconstruct the dynamics of the accident and renders the development of equipment vulnerability models linking the natural-hazard severity to the observed damage almost impossible. As a consequence, the European Commission has set up the eNATECH database for the systematic collection of Natech accident data and near misses. The database exhibits the more sophisticated accident representation required to capture the characteristics of Natech events and is publicly accessible at http://enatech.jrc.ec.europa.eu. This presentation outlines the general lessons-learning process, introduces the eNATECH database and its specific structure, and discusses natural-hazard specific lessons learned and features common to Natech accidents triggered by different natural hazards.

Summary and evaluation: fuel dynamics loss-of-flow experiments (tests L2, L3, and L4)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Barts, E.W.; Deitrich, L.W.; Eberhart, J.G.

1975-09-01

Three similar experiments conducted to support the analyses of hypothetical LMFBR unprotected-loss-of-flow accidents are summarized and evaluated. The tests, designated L2, L3, and L4, provided experimental data against which accident-analysis codes could be compared, so as to guide further analysis and modeling of the initiating phases of the hypothetical accident. The tests were conducted using seven-pin bundles of mixed-oxide fuel pins in Mark-II flowing-sodium loops in the TREAT reactor. Test L2 used fresh fuel. Tests L3 and L4 used irradiated fuel pins having, respectively, ''intermediate-power'' (no central void) and ''high-power'' (fully developed central void) microstructure. 12 references. (auth)

An Application of CICCT Accident Categories to Aviation Accidents in 1988-2004

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Evans, Joni K.

2007-01-01

Interventions or technologies developed to improve aviation safety often focus on specific causes or accident categories. Evaluation of the potential effectiveness of those interventions is dependent upon mapping the historical aviation accidents into those same accident categories. To that end, the United States civil aviation accidents occurring between 1988 and 2004 (n=26,117) were assigned accident categories based upon the taxonomy developed by the CAST/ICAO Common Taxonomy Team (CICTT). Results are presented separately for four main categories of flight rules: Part 121 (large commercial air carriers), Scheduled Part 135 (commuter airlines), Non-Scheduled Part 135 (on-demand air taxi) and Part 91 (general aviation). Injuries and aircraft damage are summarized by year and by accident category.

Combined Prediction Model of Death Toll for Road Traffic Accidents Based on Independent and Dependent Variables

PubMed Central

Zhong-xiang, Feng; Shi-sheng, Lu; Wei-hua, Zhang; Nan-nan, Zhang

2014-01-01

In order to build a combined model which can meet the variation rule of death toll data for road traffic accidents and can reflect the influence of multiple factors on traffic accidents and improve prediction accuracy for accidents, the Verhulst model was built based on the number of death tolls for road traffic accidents in China from 2002 to 2011; and car ownership, population, GDP, highway freight volume, highway passenger transportation volume, and highway mileage were chosen as the factors to build the death toll multivariate linear regression model. Then the two models were combined to be a combined prediction model which has weight coefficient. Shapley value method was applied to calculate the weight coefficient by assessing contributions. Finally, the combined model was used to recalculate the number of death tolls from 2002 to 2011, and the combined model was compared with the Verhulst and multivariate linear regression models. The results showed that the new model could not only characterize the death toll data characteristics but also quantify the degree of influence to the death toll by each influencing factor and had high accuracy as well as strong practicability. PMID:25610454

Combined prediction model of death toll for road traffic accidents based on independent and dependent variables.

PubMed

Feng, Zhong-xiang; Lu, Shi-sheng; Zhang, Wei-hua; Zhang, Nan-nan

2014-01-01

In order to build a combined model which can meet the variation rule of death toll data for road traffic accidents and can reflect the influence of multiple factors on traffic accidents and improve prediction accuracy for accidents, the Verhulst model was built based on the number of death tolls for road traffic accidents in China from 2002 to 2011; and car ownership, population, GDP, highway freight volume, highway passenger transportation volume, and highway mileage were chosen as the factors to build the death toll multivariate linear regression model. Then the two models were combined to be a combined prediction model which has weight coefficient. Shapley value method was applied to calculate the weight coefficient by assessing contributions. Finally, the combined model was used to recalculate the number of death tolls from 2002 to 2011, and the combined model was compared with the Verhulst and multivariate linear regression models. The results showed that the new model could not only characterize the death toll data characteristics but also quantify the degree of influence to the death toll by each influencing factor and had high accuracy as well as strong practicability.

A Model-based Framework for Risk Assessment in Human-Computer Controlled Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hatanaka, Iwao

2000-01-01

The rapid growth of computer technology and innovation has played a significant role in the rise of computer automation of human tasks in modem production systems across all industries. Although the rationale for automation has been to eliminate "human error" or to relieve humans from manual repetitive tasks, various computer-related hazards and accidents have emerged as a direct result of increased system complexity attributed to computer automation. The risk assessment techniques utilized for electromechanical systems are not suitable for today's software-intensive systems or complex human-computer controlled systems. This thesis will propose a new systemic model-based framework for analyzing risk in safety-critical systems where both computers and humans are controlling safety-critical functions. A new systems accident model will be developed based upon modem systems theory and human cognitive processes to better characterize system accidents, the role of human operators, and the influence of software in its direct control of significant system functions. Better risk assessments will then be achievable through the application of this new framework to complex human-computer controlled systems.

Loss Estimations due to Earthquakes and Secondary Technological Hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frolova, N.; Larionov, V.; Bonnin, J.

2009-04-01

Expected loss and damage assessment due to natural and technological disasters are of primary importance for emergency management just after the disaster, as well as for development and implementation of preventive measures plans. The paper addresses the procedures and simulation models for loss estimations due to strong earthquakes and secondary technological accidents. The mathematical models for shaking intensity distribution, damage to buildings and structures, debris volume, number of fatalities and injuries due to earthquakes and technological accidents at fire and chemical hazardous facilities are considered, which are used in geographical information systems assigned for these purposes. The criteria of technological accidents occurrence are developed on the basis of engineering analysis of past events' consequences. The paper is providing the results of scenario earthquakes consequences estimation and individual seismic risk assessment taking into account the secondary technological hazards at regional and urban levels. The individual risk is understood as the probability of death (or injuries) due to possible hazardous event within one year in a given territory. It is determined through mathematical expectation of social losses taking into account the number of inhabitants in the considered settlement and probability of natural and/or technological disaster.

[Chest modelling and automotive accidents].

PubMed

Trosseille, Xavier

2011-11-01

Automobile development is increasingly based on mathematical modeling. Accurate models of the human body are now available and serve to develop new means of protection. These models used to consist of rigid, articulated bodies but are now made of several million finite elements. They are now capable of predicting some risks of injury. To develop these models, sophisticated tests were conducted on human cadavers. For example, chest modeling started with material characterization and led to complete validation in the automobile environment. Model personalization, based on medical imaging, will permit studies of the behavior and tolerances of the entire population.

Human Brain Modeling with Its Anatomical Structure and Realistic Material Properties for Brain Injury Prediction.

PubMed

Atsumi, Noritoshi; Nakahira, Yuko; Tanaka, Eiichi; Iwamoto, Masami

2018-05-01

Impairments of executive brain function after traumatic brain injury (TBI) due to head impacts in traffic accidents need to be obviated. Finite element (FE) analyses with a human brain model facilitate understanding of the TBI mechanisms. However, conventional brain FE models do not suitably describe the anatomical structure in the deep brain, which is a critical region for executive brain function, and the material properties of brain parenchyma. In this study, for better TBI prediction, a novel brain FE model with anatomical structure in the deep brain was developed. The developed model comprises a constitutive model of brain parenchyma considering anisotropy and strain rate dependency. Validation was performed against postmortem human subject test data associated with brain deformation during head impact. Brain injury analyses were performed using head acceleration curves obtained from reconstruction analysis of rear-end collision with a human whole-body FE model. The difference in structure was found to affect the regions of strain concentration, while the difference in material model contributed to the peak strain value. The injury prediction result by the proposed model was consistent with the characteristics in the neuroimaging data of TBI patients due to traffic accidents.

Safety impacts of red light cameras at signalized intersections based on cellular automata models.

PubMed

Chai, C; Wong, Y D; Lum, K M

2015-01-01

This study applies a simulation technique to evaluate the hypothesis that red light cameras (RLCs) exert important effects on accident risks. Conflict occurrences are generated by simulation and compared at intersections with and without RLCs to assess the impact of RLCs on several conflict types under various traffic conditions. Conflict occurrences are generated through simulating vehicular interactions based on an improved cellular automata (CA) model. The CA model is calibrated and validated against field observations at approaches with and without RLCs. Simulation experiments are conducted for RLC and non-RLC intersections with different geometric layouts and traffic demands to generate conflict occurrences that are analyzed to evaluate the hypothesis that RLCs exert important effects on road safety. The comparison of simulated conflict occurrences show favorable safety impacts of RLCs on crossing conflicts and unfavorable impacts for rear-end conflicts during red/amber phases. Corroborative results are found from broad analysis of accident occurrence. RLCs are found to have a mixed effect on accident risk at signalized intersections: crossing collisions are reduced, whereas rear-end collisions may increase. The specially developed CA model is found to be a feasible safety assessment tool.

Methods for nuclear air-cleaning-system accident-consequence assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Andrae, R.W.; Bolstad, J.W.; Gregory, W.S.

1982-01-01

This paper describes a multilaboratory research program that is directed toward addressing many questions that analysts face when performing air cleaning accident consequence assessments. The program involves developing analytical tools and supportive experimental data that will be useful in making more realistic assessments of accident source terms within and up to the atmospheric boundaries of nuclear fuel cycle facilities. The types of accidents considered in this study includes fires, explosions, spills, tornadoes, criticalities, and equipment failures. The main focus of the program is developing an accident analysis handbook (AAH). We will describe the contents of the AAH, which include descriptionsmore » of selected nuclear fuel cycle facilities, process unit operations, source-term development, and accident consequence analyses. Three computer codes designed to predict gas and material propagation through facility air cleaning systems are described. These computer codes address accidents involving fires (FIRAC), explosions (EXPAC), and tornadoes (TORAC). The handbook relies on many illustrative examples to show the analyst how to approach accident consequence assessments. We will use the FIRAC code and a hypothetical fire scenario to illustrate the accident analysis capability.« less

Accident-precipitating factors for crashes in turbine-powered general aviation aircraft.

PubMed

Boyd, Douglas D; Stolzer, Alan

2016-01-01

General aviation (14CFR Part 91) accounts for 83% of civil aviation fatalities. While much research has focused on accident causes/pilot demographics in this aviation sector, studies to identify factors leading up to the crash (accident-precipitating factors) are few. Such information could inform on pre-emptive remedial action. With this in mind and considering the paucity of research on turbine-powered aircraft accidents the study objectives were to identify accident-precipitating factors and determine if the accident rate has changed over time for such aircraft operating under 14CFR Part 91. The NTSB Access database was queried for accidents in airplanes (<12,501lb) powered by 1-2 turbine engines and occurring between 1989 and 2013. We developed and utilized an accident-precipitating factor taxonomy. Statistical analyses employed logistic regression, contingency tables and a generalized linear model with Poisson distribution. The "Checklist/Flight Manual Not Followed" was the most frequent accident-precipitating factor category and carried an excess risk (OR 2.34) for an accident with a fatal and/or serious occupant injury. This elevated risk reflected an over-representation of accidents with fatal and/or serious injury outcomes (p<0.001) in the "non-adherence to V Speeds" sub-category. For accidents grouped in the "Inadequate Pre-Flight Planning/Inspection/Procedure" the "inadequate weather planning" sub-category accounted (p=0.036) for the elevated risk (OR 2.22) of an accident involving fatal and/or serious injuries. The "Violation FARs/AIM Deviation" category was also associated with a greater risk for fatal and/or serious injury (OR 2.59) with "Descent below the MDA/failure to execute the missed approach" representing the largest sub-category. Accidents in multi-engine aircraft are more frequent than their single engine counterparts and the decline (50%) in the turbine aircraft accident rate over the study period was likely due, in part, to a 6-fold increased representation of single engine airplanes. In conclusion, our study is the first to identify novel precursive factors for accidents involving turbine aircraft operating under 14CFR Part 91. This research highlights areas that should receive further emphasis in training/recurrency in a pre-emptive attempt to nullify candidate accident-precipitating factor(s). Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Safety evaluation model of urban cross-river tunnel based on driving simulation.

PubMed

Ma, Yingqi; Lu, Linjun; Lu, Jian John

2017-09-01

Currently, Shanghai urban cross-river tunnels have three principal characteristics: increased traffic, a high accident rate and rapidly developing construction. Because of their complex geographic and hydrological characteristics, the alignment conditions in urban cross-river tunnels are more complicated than in highway tunnels, so a safety evaluation of urban cross-river tunnels is necessary to suggest follow-up construction and changes in operational management. A driving risk index (DRI) for urban cross-river tunnels was proposed in this study. An index system was also constructed, combining eight factors derived from the output of a driving simulator regarding three aspects of risk due to following, lateral accidents and driver workload. Analytic hierarchy process methods and expert marking and normalization processing were applied to construct a mathematical model for the DRI. The driving simulator was used to simulate 12 Shanghai urban cross-river tunnels and a relationship was obtained between the DRI for the tunnels and the corresponding accident rate (AR) via a regression analysis. The regression analysis results showed that the relationship between the DRI and the AR mapped to an exponential function with a high degree of fit. In the absence of detailed accident data, a safety evaluation model based on factors derived from a driving simulation can effectively assess the driving risk in urban cross-river tunnels constructed or in design.

The willingness to pay of parties to traffic accidents for loss of productivity and consolation compensation.

PubMed

Jou, Rong-Chang; Chen, Tzu-Ying

2015-12-01

In this study, willingness to pay (WTP) for loss of productivity and consolation compensation by parties to traffic accidents is investigated using the Tobit model. In addition, WTP is compared to compensation determined by Taiwanese courts. The modelling results showed that variables such as education, average individual monthly income, traffic accident history, past experience of severe traffic accident injuries, the number of working days lost due to a traffic accident, past experience of accepting compensation for traffic accident-caused productivity loss and past experience of accepting consolation compensation caused by traffic accidents have a positive impact on WTP. In addition, average WTP for these two accident costs were obtained. We found that parties to traffic accidents were willing to pay more than 90% of the compensation determined by the court in the scenario of minor and moderate injuries. Parties were willing to pay approximately 80% of the compensation determined by the court for severe injuries, disability and fatality. Therefore, related agencies can use our study findings as the basis for determining the compensation that parties should pay for productivity losses caused by traffic accidents of different types. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimation of fatality and injury risk by means of in-depth fatal accident investigation data.

PubMed

Yannis, George; Papadimitriou, Eleonora; Dupont, Emmanuelle; Martensen, Heike

2010-10-01

In this article the factors affecting fatality and injury risk of road users involved in fatal accidents are analyzed by means of in-depth accident investigation data, with emphasis on parameters not extensively explored in previous research. A fatal accident investigation (FAI) database is used, which includes intermediate-level in-depth data for a harmonized representative sample of 1300 fatal accidents in 7 European countries. The FAI database offers improved potential for analysis, because it includes information on a number of variables that are seldom available, complete, or accurately recorded in road accident databases. However, the fact that only fatal accidents are examined requires for methodological adjustments, namely, the correction for two types of effects on a road user's baseline risk: "accident size" effects, and "relative vulnerability" effects. Fatality and injury risk can be then modeled through multilevel logistic regression models, which account for the hierarchical dependences of the road accident process. The results show that the baseline fatality risk of road users involved in fatal accidents decreases with accident size and increases with the vulnerability of the road user. On the contrary, accident size increases nonfatal injury risk of road users involved in fatal accidents. Other significant effects on fatality and injury risk in fatal accidents include road user age, vehicle type, speed limit, the chain of accident events, vehicle maneuver, and safety equipment. In particular, the presence and use of safety equipment such as seat belt, antilock braking system (ABS), and electronic stability program (ESP) are protection factors for car occupants, especially for those seated at the front seats. Although ABS and ESP systems are typically associated with positive effects on accident occurrence, the results of this research revealed significant related effects on accident severity as well. Moreover, accident consequences are more severe when the most harmful event of the accident occurs later within the accident chain.

Severe accident modeling of a PWR core with different cladding materials

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Johnson, S. C.; Henry, R. E.; Paik, C. Y.

2012-07-01

The MAAP v.4 software has been used to model two severe accident scenarios in nuclear power reactors with three different materials as fuel cladding. The TMI-2 severe accident was modeled with Zircaloy-2 and SiC as clad material and a SBO accident in a Zion-like, 4-loop, Westinghouse PWR was modeled with Zircaloy-2, SiC, and 304 stainless steel as clad material. TMI-2 modeling results indicate that lower peak core temperatures, less H 2 (g) produced, and a smaller mass of molten material would result if SiC was substituted for Zircaloy-2 as cladding. SBO modeling results indicate that the calculated time to RCSmore » rupture would increase by approximately 20 minutes if SiC was substituted for Zircaloy-2. Additionally, when an extended SBO accident (RCS creep rupture failure disabled) was modeled, significantly lower peak core temperatures, less H 2 (g) produced, and a smaller mass of molten material would be generated by substituting SiC for Zircaloy-2 or stainless steel cladding. Because the rate of SiC oxidation reaction with elevated temperature H{sub 2}O (g) was set to 0 for this work, these results should be considered preliminary. However, the benefits of SiC as a more accident tolerant clad material have been shown and additional investigation of SiC as an LWR core material are warranted, specifically investigations of the oxidation kinetics of SiC in H{sub 2}O (g) over the range of temperatures and pressures relevant to severe accidents in LWR 's. (authors)« less

Analyses of non-fatal accidents in an opencast mine by logistic regression model - a case study.

PubMed

Onder, Seyhan; Mutlu, Mert

2017-09-01

Accidents cause major damage for both workers and enterprises in the mining industry. To reduce the number of occupational accidents, these incidents should be properly registered and carefully analysed. This study efficiently examines the Aegean Lignite Enterprise (ELI) of Turkish Coal Enterprises (TKI) in Soma between 2006 and 2011, and opencast coal mine occupational accident records were used for statistical analyses. A total of 231 occupational accidents were analysed for this study. The accident records were categorized into seven groups: area, reason, occupation, part of body, age, shift hour and lost days. The SPSS package program was used in this study for logistic regression analyses, which predicted the probability of accidents resulting in greater or less than 3 lost workdays for non-fatal injuries. Social facilities-area of surface installations, workshops and opencast mining areas are the areas with the highest probability for accidents with greater than 3 lost workdays for non-fatal injuries, while the reasons with the highest probability for these types of accidents are transporting and manual handling. Additionally, the model was tested for such reported accidents that occurred in 2012 for the ELI in Soma and estimated the probability of exposure to accidents with lost workdays correctly by 70%.

DAMS: A Model to Assess Domino Effects by Using Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation.

PubMed

Zhang, Laobing; Landucci, Gabriele; Reniers, Genserik; Khakzad, Nima; Zhou, Jianfeng

2017-12-19

Historical data analysis shows that escalation accidents, so-called domino effects, have an important role in disastrous accidents in the chemical and process industries. In this study, an agent-based modeling and simulation approach is proposed to study the propagation of domino effects in the chemical and process industries. Different from the analytical or Monte Carlo simulation approaches, which normally study the domino effect at probabilistic network levels, the agent-based modeling technique explains the domino effects from a bottom-up perspective. In this approach, the installations involved in a domino effect are modeled as agents whereas the interactions among the installations (e.g., by means of heat radiation) are modeled via the basic rules of the agents. Application of the developed model to several case studies demonstrates the ability of the model not only in modeling higher-level domino effects and synergistic effects but also in accounting for temporal dependencies. The model can readily be applied to large-scale complicated cases. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Estimation Of 137Cs Using Atmospheric Dispersion Models After A Nuclear Reactor Accident

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simsek, V.; Kindap, T.; Unal, A.; Pozzoli, L.; Karaca, M.

2012-04-01

Nuclear energy will continue to have an important role in the production of electricity in the world as the need of energy grows up. But the safety of power plants will always be a question mark for people because of the accidents happened in the past. Chernobyl nuclear reactor accident which happened in 26 April 1986 was the biggest nuclear accident ever. Because of explosion and fire large quantities of radioactive material was released to the atmosphere. The release of the radioactive particles because of accident affected not only its region but the entire Northern hemisphere. But much of the radioactive material was spread over west USSR and Europe. There are many studies about distribution of radioactive particles and the deposition of radionuclides all over Europe. But this was not true for Turkey especially for the deposition of radionuclides released after Chernobyl nuclear reactor accident and the radiation doses received by people. The aim of this study is to determine the radiation doses received by people living in Turkish territory after Chernobyl nuclear reactor accident and use this method in case of an emergency. For this purpose The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model was used to simulate meteorological conditions after the accident. The results of WRF which were for the 12 days after accident were used as input data for the HYSPLIT model. NOAA-ARL's (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Air Resources Laboratory) dispersion model HYSPLIT was used to simulate the 137Cs distrubition. The deposition values of 137Cs in our domain after Chernobyl Nuclear Reactor Accident were between 1.2E-37 Bq/m2 and 3.5E+08 Bq/m2. The results showed that Turkey was affected because of the accident especially the Black Sea Region. And the doses were calculated by using GENII-LIN which is multipurpose health physics code.

Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis: Dispersion and deposition uncertainty assessment, appendices A and B

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Harper, F.T.; Young, M.L.; Miller, L.A.

The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, completed in 1990, estimate the risks presented by nuclear installations based on postulated frequencies and magnitudes of potential accidents. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the Commission of the European Communities (CEC) began a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The objective was to develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the input variables of the codes. Expert elicitation, developed independently, was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for the selected consequence parameters. The study was formulatedmore » jointly and was limited to the current code models and to physical quantities that could be measured in experiments. To validate the distributions generated for the wet deposition input variables, samples were taken from these distributions and propagated through the wet deposition code model along with the Gaussian plume model (GPM) implemented in the MACCS and COSYMA codes. Resulting distributions closely replicated the aggregated elicited wet deposition distributions. Project teams from the NRC and CEC cooperated successfully to develop and implement a unified process for the elaboration of uncertainty distributions on consequence code input parameters. Formal expert judgment elicitation proved valuable for synthesizing the best available information. Distributions on measurable atmospheric dispersion and deposition parameters were successfully elicited from experts involved in the many phenomenological areas of consequence analysis. This volume is the second of a three-volume document describing the project and contains two appendices describing the rationales for the dispersion and deposition data along with short biographies of the 16 experts who participated in the project.« less

Validation of Operational Multiscale Environment Model With Grid Adaptivity (OMEGA).

DTIC Science & Technology

1995-12-01

Center for the period of the Chernobyl Nuclear Accident. The physics of the model is tested using National Weather Service Medium Range Forecast data by...Climatology Center for the first three days following the release at the Chernobyl Nuclear Plant. A user-defined source term was developed to simulate

Development of MPS Method for Analyzing Melt Spreading Behavior and MCCI in Severe Accidents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamaji, Akifumi; Li, Xin

2016-08-01

Spreading of molten core (corium) on reactor containment vessel floor and molten corium-concrete interaction (MCCI) are important phenomena in the late phase of a severe accident for assessment of the containment integrity and managing the severe accident. The severe accident research at Waseda University has been advancing to show that simulations with moving particle semi-implicit (MPS) method (one of the particle methods) can greatly improve the analytical capability and mechanical understanding of the melt behavior in severe accidents. MPS models have been developed and verified regarding calculations of radiation and thermal field, solid-liquid phase transition, buoyancy, and temperature dependency of viscosity to simulate phenomena, such as spreading of corium, ablation of concrete by the corium, crust formation and cooling of the corium by top flooding. Validations have been conducted against experiments such as FARO L26S, ECOKATS-V1, Theofanous, and SPREAD for spreading, SURC-2, SURC-4, SWISS-1, and SWISS-2 for MCCI. These validations cover melt spreading behaviors and MCCI by mixture of molten oxides (including prototypic UO2-ZrO2), metals, and water. Generally, the analytical results show good agreement with the experiment with respect to the leading edge of spreading melt and ablation front history of concrete. The MPS results indicate that crust formation may play important roles in melt spreading and MCCI. There is a need to develop a code for two dimensional MCCI experiment simulation with MPS method as future study, which will be able to simulate anisotropic ablation of concrete.

Driver Performance Problems of Intercity Bus Public Transportation Safety in Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suraji, A.; Harnen, S.; Wicaksono, A.; Djakfar, L.

2017-11-01

The risk of an inter-city bus public accident can be influenced by various factors such as the driver’s performance. Therefore, knowing the various influential factors related to driver’s performance is very necessary as an effort to realize road traffic safety. This study aims to determine the factors that fall on the accident associated with the driver’s performance and make mathematical modeling factors that affect the accident. Methods of data retrieval were obtained from NTSC secondary data. The data was processed by identifying factors that cause the accident. Furthermore data processing and analysis used the PCA method to obtain mathematical modeling of factors influencing the inter-city bus accidents. The results showed that the main factors that cause accidents are health, discipline, and driver competence.

Workflow interruptions, cognitive failure and near-accidents in health care.

PubMed

Elfering, Achim; Grebner, Simone; Ebener, Corinne

2015-01-01

Errors are frequent in health care. A specific model was tested that affirms failure in cognitive action regulation to mediate the influence of nurses' workflow interruptions and safety conscientiousness on near-accidents in health care. One hundred and sixty-five nurses from seven Swiss hospitals participated in a questionnaire survey. Structural equation modelling confirmed the hypothesised mediation model. Cognitive failure in action regulation significantly mediated the influence of workflow interruptions on near-accidents (p < .05). An indirect path from conscientiousness to near-accidents via cognitive failure in action regulation was also significant (p < .05). Compliance with safety regulations was significantly related to cognitive failure and near-accidents; moreover, cognitive failure mediated the association between compliance and near-accidents (p < .05). Contrary to expectations, compliance with safety regulations was not related to workflow interruptions. Workflow interruptions caused by colleagues, patients and organisational constraints are likely to trigger errors in nursing. Work redesign is recommended to reduce cognitive failure and improve safety of nurses and patients.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sattison, M.B.; Schroeder, J.A.; Russell, K.D.

The Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) over the past year has created 75 plant-specific Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) models using the SAPHIRE suite of PRA codes. Along with the new models, the INEL has also developed a new module for SAPHIRE which is tailored specifically to the unique needs of ASP evaluations. These models and software will be the next generation of risk tools for the evaluation of accident precursors by both NRR and AEOD. This paper presents an overview of the models and software. Key characteristics include: (1) classification of the plant models according to plant response with amore » unique set of event trees for each plant class, (2) plant-specific fault trees using supercomponents, (3) generation and retention of all system and sequence cutsets, (4) full flexibility in modifying logic, regenerating cutsets, and requantifying results, and (5) user interface for streamlined evaluation of ASP events.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sattison, M.B.; Schroeder, J.A.; Russell, K.D.

The Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) over the past year has created 75 plant-specific Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) models using the SAPHIRE suite of PRA codes. Along with the new models, the INEL has also developed a new module for SAPHIRE which is tailored specifically to the unique needs of conditional core damage probability (CCDP) evaluations. These models and software will be the next generation of risk tools for the evaluation of accident precursors by both NRR and AEOD. This paper presents an overview of the models and software. Key characteristics include: (1) classification of the plant models according tomore » plant response with a unique set of event trees for each plant class, (2) plant-specific fault trees using supercomponents, (3) generation and retention of all system and sequence cutsets, (4) full flexibility in modifying logic, regenerating cutsets, and requantifying results, and (5) user interface for streamlined evaluation of ASP events.« less

Cellular automata-based forecasting of the impact of accidental fire and toxic dispersion in process industries.

PubMed

Sarkar, Chinmoy; Abbasi, S A

2006-09-01

The strategies to prevent accidents from occurring in a process industry, or to minimize the harm if an accident does take place, always revolve around forecasting the likely accidents and their impacts. Based on the likely frequency and severity of the accidents, resources are committed towards preventing the accidents. Nearly all techniques of ranking hazardous units, be it the hazard and operability studies, fault tree analysis, hazard indice, etc.--qualitative as well as quantitative--depend essentially on the assessment of the likely frequency and the likely harm accidents in different units may cause. This fact makes it exceedingly important that the forecasting the accidents and their likely impact is done as accurately as possible. In the present study we introduce a new approach to accident forecasting based on the discrete modeling paradigm of cellular automata. In this treatment an accident is modeled as a self-evolving phenomena, the impact of which is strongly influenced by the size, nature, and position of the environmental components which lie in the vicinity of the accident site. The outward propagation of the mass, energy and momentum from the accident epicenter is modeled as a fast diffusion process occurring in discrete space-time coordinates. The quantum of energy and material that would flow into each discrete space element (cell) due to the accidental release is evaluated and the degree of vulnerability posed to the receptors if present in the cell is measured at the end of each time element. This approach is able to effectively take into account the modifications in the flux of energy and material which occur as a result of the heterogeneous environment prevailing between the accident epicenter and the receptor. Consequently, more realistic accident scenarios are generated than possible with the prevailing techniques. The efficacy of the approach has been illustrated with case studies.

Interactive Rapid Dose Assessment Model (IRDAM): reactor-accident assessment methods. Vol. 2

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Poeton, R.W.; Moeller, M.P.; Laughlin, G.J.

1983-05-01

As part of the continuing emphasis on emergency preparedness, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) sponsored the development of a rapid dose assessment system by Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL). This system, the Interactive Rapid Dose Assessment Model (IRDAM) is a micro-computer based program for rapidly assessing the radiological impact of accidents at nuclear power plants. This document describes the technical bases for IRDAM including methods, models and assumptions used in calculations. IRDAM calculates whole body (5-cm depth) and infant thyroid doses at six fixed downwind distances between 500 and 20,000 meters. Radionuclides considered primarily consist of noble gases and radioiodines.more » In order to provide a rapid assessment capability consistent with the capacity of the Osborne-1 computer, certain simplifying approximations and assumptions are made. These are described, along with default values (assumptions used in the absence of specific input) in the text of this document. Two companion volumes to this one provide additional information on IRDAM. The user's Guide (NUREG/CR-3012, Volume 1) describes the setup and operation of equipment necessary to run IRDAM. Scenarios for Comparing Dose Assessment Models (NUREG/CR-3012, Volume 3) provides the results of calculations made by IRDAM and other models for specific accident scenarios.« less

International transferability of accident modification functions for horizontal curves.

PubMed

Elvik, Rune

2013-10-01

Studies of the relationship between characteristics of horizontal curves and accident rate have been reported in several countries. The characteristic most often studied is the radius of a horizontal curve. Functions describing the relationship between the radius of horizontal curves and accident rate have been developed in Australia, Canada, Denmark, Germany, Great Britain, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Sweden, and the United States. Other characteristics of horizontal curves that have been studied include deflection angle, curve length, the presence of transition curves, super-elevation in curves and distance to adjacent curves. This paper assesses the international transferability of mathematical functions (accident modification functions) that have been developed to relate the radius of horizontal curves to their accident rate. The main research problem is whether these functions are similar, which enhances international transferability, or dissimilar, which reduces international transferability. Accident modification functions for horizontal curve radius developed in the countries listed above are synthesised. The sensitivity of the functions to other characteristics of curves than radius is examined. Accident modification functions developed in different countries have important similarities. The functions diverge with respect to accident rate in the sharpest curves. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

FY2016 Ceramic Fuels Development Annual Highlights

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mcclellan, Kenneth James

Key challenges for the Advanced Fuels Campaign are the development of fuel technologies to enable major increases in fuel performance (safety, reliability, power and burnup) beyond current technologies, and development of characterization methods and predictive fuel performance models to enable more efficient development and licensing of advanced fuels. Ceramic fuel development activities for fiscal year 2016 fell within the areas of 1) National and International Technical Integration, 2) Advanced Accident Tolerant Ceramic Fuel Development, 3) Advanced Techniques and Reference Materials Development, and 4) Fabrication of Enriched Ceramic Fuels. High uranium density fuels were the focus of the ceramic fuels efforts.more » Accomplishments for FY16 primarily reflect the prioritization of identification and assessment of new ceramic fuels for light water reactors which have enhanced accident tolerance while also maintaining or improving normal operation performance, and exploration of advanced post irradiation examination techniques which will support more efficient testing and qualification of new fuel systems.« less

Investigation of adolescent accident predictive variables in hilly regions.

PubMed

Mohanty, Malaya; Gupta, Ankit

2016-09-01

The study aims to determine the significant personal and environmental factors in predicting the adolescent accidents in the hilly regions taking into account two cities Hamirpur and Dharamshala, which lie at an average elevation of 700--1000 metres above the mean sea level (MSL). Detailed comparisons between the results of 2 cities are also studied. The results are analyzed to provide the list of most significant factors responsible for adolescent accidents. Data were collected from different schools and colleges of the city with the help of a questionnaire survey. Around 690 responses from Hamirpur and 460 responses from Dharamshala were taken for study and analysis. Standard deviations (SD) of various factors affecting accidents were calculated and factors with relatively very low SD were discarded and other variables were considered for correlations. Correlation was developed using Kendall's-tau and chi-square tests and factors those were found significant were used for modelling. They were - the victim's age, the character of road, the speed of vehicle, and the use of helmet for Hamirpur and for Dharamshala, the kind of vehicle involved was an added variable found responsible for adolescent accidents. A logistic regression was performed to know the effect of each category present in a variable on the occurrence of accidents. Though the age and the speed of vehicle were considered to be important factors for accident occurrence according to Indian accident data records, even the use of helmet comes out as a major concern. The age group of 15-18 and 18-21 years were found to be more susceptible to accidents than the higher age groups. Due to the presence of hilly area, the character of road becomes a major concern for cause of accidents and the topography of the area makes the kind of vehicle involved as a major variable for determining the severity of accidents.

Behavior of U 3Si 2 Fuel and FeCrAl Cladding under Normal Operating and Accident Reactor Conditions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gamble, Kyle Allan Lawrence; Hales, Jason Dean; Barani, Tommaso

2016-09-01

As part of the Department of Energy's Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation program, an Accident Tolerant Fuel High Impact Problem was initiated at the beginning of fiscal year 2015 to investigate the behavior of \\usi~fuel and iron-chromium-aluminum (FeCrAl) claddings under normal operating and accident reactor conditions. The High Impact Problem was created in response to the United States Department of Energy's renewed interest in accident tolerant materials after the events that occurred at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant in 2011. The High Impact Problem is a multinational laboratory and university collaborative research effort between Idaho National Laboratory, Losmore » Alamos National Laboratory, Argonne National Laboratory, and the University of Tennessee, Knoxville. This report primarily focuses on the engineering scale research in fiscal year 2016 with brief summaries of the lower length scale developments in the areas of density functional theory, cluster dynamics, rate theory, and phase field being presented.« less

Thermal-hydraulic analysis of N Reactor graphite and shield cooling system performance

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Low, J.O.; Schmitt, B.E.

1988-02-01

A series of bounding (worst-case) calculations were performed using a detailed hydrodynamic RELAP5 model of the N Reactor graphite and shield cooling system (GSCS). These calculations were specifically aimed to answer issues raised by the Westinghouse Independent Safety Review (WISR) committee. These questions address the operability of the GSCS during a worst-case degraded-core accident that requires the GDCS to mitigate the consequences of the accident. An accident scenario previously developed was designed as the hydrogen-mitigation design-basis accident (HMDBA). Previous HMDBA heat transfer analysis,, using the TRUMP-BD code, was used to define the thermal boundary conditions that the GSDS may bemore » exposed to. These TRUMP/HMDBA analysis results were used to define the bounding operating conditions of the GSCS during the course of an HMDBA transient. Nominal and degraded GSCS scenarios were investigated using RELAP5 within or at the bounds of the HMDBA transient. 10 refs., 42 figs., 10 tabs.« less

System analysis with improved thermo-mechanical fuel rod models for modeling current and advanced LWR materials in accident scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Porter, Ian Edward

A nuclear reactor systems code has the ability to model the system response in an accident scenario based on known initial conditions at the onset of the transient. However, there has been a tendency for these codes to lack the detailed thermo-mechanical fuel rod response models needed for accurate prediction of fuel rod failure. This proposed work will couple today's most widely used steady-state (FRAPCON) and transient (FRAPTRAN) fuel rod models with a systems code TRACE for best-estimate modeling of system response in accident scenarios such as a loss of coolant accident (LOCA). In doing so, code modifications will be made to model gamma heating in LWRs during steady-state and accident conditions and to improve fuel rod thermal/mechanical analysis by allowing axial nodalization of burnup-dependent phenomena such as swelling, cladding creep and oxidation. With the ability to model both burnup-dependent parameters and transient fuel rod response, a fuel dispersal study will be conducted using a hypothetical accident scenario under both PWR and BWR conditions to determine the amount of fuel dispersed under varying conditions. Due to the fuel fragmentation size and internal rod pressure both being dependent on burnup, this analysis will be conducted at beginning, middle and end of cycle to examine the effects that cycle time can play on fuel rod failure and dispersal. Current fuel rod and system codes used by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) are compilations of legacy codes with only commonly used light water reactor materials, Uranium Dioxide (UO2), Mixed Oxide (U/PuO 2) and zirconium alloys. However, the events at Fukushima Daiichi and Three Mile Island accident have shown the need for exploration into advanced materials possessing improved accident tolerance. This work looks to further modify the NRC codes to include silicon carbide (SiC), an advanced cladding material proposed by current DOE funded research on accident tolerant fuels (ATF). Several additional fuels will also be analyzed, including uranium nitride (UN), uranium carbide (UC) and uranium silicide (U3Si2). Focusing on the system response in an accident scenario, an emphasis is placed on the fracture mechanics of the ceramic cladding by design the fuel rods to eliminate pellet cladding mechanical interaction (PCMI). The time to failure and how much of the fuel in the reactor fails with an advanced fuel design will be analyzed and compared to the current UO2/Zircaloy design using a full scale reactor model.

Nuclear Fuels & Materials Spotlight Volume 5

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Petti, David Andrew

2016-10-01

As the nation's nuclear energy laboratory, Idaho National Laboratory brings together talented people and specialized nuclear research capability to accomplish our mission. This edition of the Nuclear Fuels and Materials Division Spotlight provides an overview of some of our recent accomplishments in research and capability development. These accomplishments include: • Evaluation and modeling of light water reactor accident tolerant fuel concepts • Status and results of recent TRISO-coated particle fuel irradiations, post-irradiation examinations, high-temperature safety testing to demonstrate the accident performance of this fuel system, and advanced microscopy to improve the understanding of fission product transport in this fuel system.more » • Improvements in and applications of meso and engineering scale modeling of light water reactor fuel behavior under a range of operating conditions and postulated accidents (e.g., power ramping, loss of coolant accident, and reactivity initiated accidents) using the MARMOT and BISON codes. • Novel measurements of the properties of nuclear (actinide) materials under extreme conditions, (e.g. high pressure, low/high temperatures, high magnetic field) to improve the scientific understanding of these materials. • Modeling reactor pressure vessel behavior using the GRIZZLY code. • New methods using sound to sense temperature inside a reactor core. • Improved experimental capabilities to study the response of fusion reactor materials to a tritium plasma. Throughout Spotlight, you'll find examples of productive partnerships with academia, industry, and government agencies that deliver high-impact outcomes. The work conducted at Idaho National Laboratory helps spur innovation in nuclear energy applications that drive economic growth and energy security. We appreciate your interest in our work here at Idaho National Laboratory, and hope that you find this issue informative.« less

A modeling framework for exposing risks in complex systems.

PubMed

Sharit, J

2000-08-01

This article introduces and develops a modeling framework for exposing risks in the form of human errors and adverse consequences in high-risk systems. The modeling framework is based on two components: a two-dimensional theory of accidents in systems developed by Perrow in 1984, and the concept of multiple system perspectives. The theory of accidents differentiates systems on the basis of two sets of attributes. One set characterizes the degree to which systems are interactively complex; the other emphasizes the extent to which systems are tightly coupled. The concept of multiple perspectives provides alternative descriptions of the entire system that serve to enhance insight into system processes. The usefulness of these two model components derives from a modeling framework that cross-links them, enabling a variety of work contexts to be exposed and understood that would otherwise be very difficult or impossible to identify. The model components and the modeling framework are illustrated in the case of a large and comprehensive trauma care system. In addition to its general utility in the area of risk analysis, this methodology may be valuable in applications of current methods of human and system reliability analysis in complex and continually evolving high-risk systems.

Uncertainty analysis of accident notification time and emergency medical service response time in work zone traffic accidents.

PubMed

Meng, Qiang; Weng, Jinxian

2013-01-01

Taking into account the uncertainty caused by exogenous factors, the accident notification time (ANT) and emergency medical service (EMS) response time were modeled as 2 random variables following the lognormal distribution. Their mean values and standard deviations were respectively formulated as the functions of environmental variables including crash time, road type, weekend, holiday, light condition, weather, and work zone type. Work zone traffic accident data from the Fatality Analysis Report System between 2002 and 2009 were utilized to determine the distributions of the ANT and the EMS arrival time in the United States. A mixed logistic regression model, taking into account the uncertainty associated with the ANT and the EMS response time, was developed to estimate the risk of death. The results showed that the uncertainty of the ANT was primarily influenced by crash time and road type, whereas the uncertainty of EMS response time is greatly affected by road type, weather, and light conditions. In addition, work zone accidents occurring during a holiday and in poor light conditions were found to be statistically associated with a longer mean ANT and longer EMS response time. The results also show that shortening the ANT was a more effective approach in reducing the risk of death than the EMS response time in work zones. To shorten the ANT and the EMS response time, work zone activities are suggested to be undertaken during non-holidays, during the daytime, and in good weather and light conditions.

Numerical human models for accident research and safety - potentials and limitations.

PubMed

Praxl, Norbert; Adamec, Jiri; Muggenthaler, Holger; von Merten, Katja

2008-01-01

The method of numerical simulation is frequently used in the area of automotive safety. Recently, numerical models of the human body have been developed for the numerical simulation of occupants. Different approaches in modelling the human body have been used: the finite-element and the multibody technique. Numerical human models representing the two modelling approaches are introduced and the potentials and limitations of these models are discussed.

MODELLING OF FUEL BEHAVIOUR DURING LOSS-OF-COOLANT ACCIDENTS USING THE BISON CODE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pastore, G.; Novascone, S. R.; Williamson, R. L.

2015-09-01

This work presents recent developments to extend the BISON code to enable fuel performance analysis during LOCAs. This newly developed capability accounts for the main physical phenomena involved, as well as the interactions among them and with the global fuel rod thermo-mechanical analysis. Specifically, new multiphysics models are incorporated in the code to describe (1) transient fission gas behaviour, (2) rapid steam-cladding oxidation, (3) Zircaloy solid-solid phase transition, (4) hydrogen generation and transport through the cladding, and (5) Zircaloy high-temperature non-linear mechanical behaviour and failure. Basic model characteristics are described, and a demonstration BISON analysis of a LWR fuel rodmore » undergoing a LOCA accident is presented. Also, as a first step of validation, the code with the new capability is applied to the simulation of experiments investigating cladding behaviour under LOCA conditions. The comparison of the results with the available experimental data of cladding failure due to burst is presented.« less

Identifying the causes of road crashes in Europe

PubMed Central

Thomas, Pete; Morris, Andrew; Talbot, Rachel; Fagerlind, Helen

2013-01-01

This research applies a recently developed model of accident causation, developed to investigate industrial accidents, to a specially gathered sample of 997 crashes investigated in-depth in 6 countries. Based on the work of Hollnagel the model considers a collision to be a consequence of a breakdown in the interaction between road users, vehicles and the organisation of the traffic environment. 54% of road users experienced interpretation errors while 44% made observation errors and 37% planning errors. In contrast to other studies only 11% of drivers were identified as distracted and 8% inattentive. There was remarkably little variation in these errors between the main road user types. The application of the model to future in-depth crash studies offers the opportunity to identify new measures to improve safety and to mitigate the social impact of collisions. Examples given include the potential value of co-driver advisory technologies to reduce observation errors and predictive technologies to avoid conflicting interactions between road users. PMID:24406942

Modeling Increased Complexity and the Reliance on Automation: FLightdeck Automation Problems (FLAP) Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ancel, Ersin; Shih, Ann T.

2014-01-01

This paper highlights the development of a model that is focused on the safety issue of increasing complexity and reliance on automation systems in transport category aircraft. Recent statistics show an increase in mishaps related to manual handling and automation errors due to pilot complacency and over-reliance on automation, loss of situational awareness, automation system failures and/or pilot deficiencies. Consequently, the aircraft can enter a state outside the flight envelope and/or air traffic safety margins which potentially can lead to loss-of-control (LOC), controlled-flight-into-terrain (CFIT), or runway excursion/confusion accidents, etc. The goal of this modeling effort is to provide NASA's Aviation Safety Program (AvSP) with a platform capable of assessing the impacts of AvSP technologies and products towards reducing the relative risk of automation related accidents and incidents. In order to do so, a generic framework, capable of mapping both latent and active causal factors leading to automation errors, is developed. Next, the framework is converted into a Bayesian Belief Network model and populated with data gathered from Subject Matter Experts (SMEs). With the insertion of technologies and products, the model provides individual and collective risk reduction acquired by technologies and methodologies developed within AvSP.

Chernobyl and Fukushima nuclear accidents: what has changed in the use of atmospheric dispersion modeling?

PubMed

Benamrane, Y; Wybo, J-L; Armand, P

2013-12-01

The threat of a major accidental or deliberate event that would lead to hazardous materials emission in the atmosphere is a great cause of concern to societies. This is due to the potential large scale of casualties and damages that could result from the release of explosive, flammable or toxic gases from industrial plants or transport accidents, radioactive material from nuclear power plants (NPPs), and chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear (CBRN) terrorist attacks. In order to respond efficiently to such events, emergency services and authorities resort to appropriate planning and organizational patterns. This paper focuses on the use of atmospheric dispersion modeling (ADM) as a support tool for emergency planning and response, to assess the propagation of the hazardous cloud and thereby, take adequate counter measures. This paper intends to illustrate the noticeable evolution in the operational use of ADM tools over 25 y and especially in emergency situations. This study is based on data available in scientific publications and exemplified using the two most severe nuclear accidents: Chernobyl (1986) and Fukushima (2011). It appears that during the Chernobyl accident, ADM were used few days after the beginning of the accident mainly in a diagnosis approach trying to reconstruct what happened, whereas 25 y later, ADM was also used during the first days and weeks of the Fukushima accident to anticipate the potentially threatened areas. We argue that the recent developments in ADM tools play an increasing role in emergencies and crises management, by supporting stakeholders in anticipating, monitoring and assessing post-event damages. However, despite technological evolutions, its prognostic and diagnostic use in emergency situations still arise many issues. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Seveso 1986, Chernobyl 1976: a physicist' look at 2 ecological disasters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ratti, S.

2004-05-01

Seveso suffered a chemical accident with a severe loss of supertoxic material (TCCD) released in the atmosphere; Chernobyl was a world known nuclear accident. The pollution induced by the two accident are analysed in term of fractal models. The first case involved a limited micro ecological system; the second one spread over a macro ecological system. The pollution is reproduced by means of simple Fractal Sum of Pulses models in the Seveso region; for the Chernobyl accident in northern Italy and in several european Countries. The 2 accidents are also analysed in terms of Universal Multifractals showing that thethe parameters α and C1 are those describing respectively rainfall (Seveso) and cloud formation (Chernobyl).

Exploring the factors affecting motorway accident severity in England using the generalised ordered logistic regression model.

PubMed

Michalaki, Paraskevi; Quddus, Mohammed A; Pitfield, David; Huetson, Andrew

2015-12-01

The severity of motorway accidents that occurred on the hard shoulder (HS) is higher than for the main carriageway (MC). This paper compares and contrasts the most important factors affecting the severity of HS and MC accidents on motorways in England. Using police reported accident data, the accidents that occurred on motorways in England are grouped into two categories (i.e., HS and MC) according to the location. A generalized ordered logistic regression model is then applied to identify the factors affecting the severity of HS and MC accidents on motorways. The factors examined include accident and vehicle characteristics, traffic and environment conditions, as well as other behavioral factors. Results suggest that the factors positively affecting the severity include: number of vehicles involved in the accident, peak-hour traffic time, and low visibility. Differences between HS and MC accidents are identified, with the most important being the involvement of heavy goods vehicles (HGVs) and driver fatigue, which are found to be more crucial in increasing the severity of HS accidents. Measures to increase awareness of HGV drivers regarding the risk of fatigue when driving on motorways, and especially the nearside lane, should be taken by the stakeholders. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

The role of personality traits and driving experience in self-reported risky driving behaviors and accident risk among Chinese drivers.

PubMed

Tao, Da; Zhang, Rui; Qu, Xingda

2017-02-01

The purpose of this study was to explore the role of personality traits and driving experience in the prediction of risky driving behaviors and accident risk among Chinese population. A convenience sample of drivers (n=511; mean (SD) age=34.2 (8.8) years) completed a self-report questionnaire that was designed based on validated scales for measuring personality traits, risky driving behaviors and self-reported accident risk. Results from structural equation modeling analysis demonstrated that the data fit well with our theoretical model. While showing no direct effects on accident risk, personality traits had direct effects on risky driving behaviors, and yielded indirect effects on accident risk mediated by risky driving behaviors. Both driving experience and risky driving behaviors directly predicted accident risk and accounted for 15% of its variance. There was little gender difference in personality traits, risky driving behaviors and accident risk. The findings emphasized the importance of personality traits and driving experience in the understanding of risky driving behaviors and accident risk among Chinese drivers and provided new insight into the design of evidence-based driving education and accident prevention interventions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Behavior of road accidents: Structural time series approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Junus, Noor Wahida Md; Ismail, Mohd Tahir; Arsad, Zainudin

2014-12-01

Road accidents become a major issue in contributing to the increasing number of deaths. Few researchers suggest that road accidents occur due to road structure and road condition. The road structure and condition may differ according to the area and volume of traffic of the location. Therefore, this paper attempts to look up the behavior of the road accidents in four main regions in Peninsular Malaysia by employing a structural time series (STS) approach. STS offers the possibility of modelling the unobserved component such as trends and seasonal component and it is allowed to vary over time. The results found that the number of road accidents is described by a different model. Perhaps, the results imply that the government, especially a policy maker should consider to implement a different approach in ways to overcome the increasing number of road accidents.

A comprehensive probabilistic analysis model of oil pipelines network based on Bayesian network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, C.; Qin, T. X.; Jiang, B.; Huang, C.

2018-02-01

Oil pipelines network is one of the most important facilities of energy transportation. But oil pipelines network accident may result in serious disasters. Some analysis models for these accidents have been established mainly based on three methods, including event-tree, accident simulation and Bayesian network. Among these methods, Bayesian network is suitable for probabilistic analysis. But not all the important influencing factors are considered and the deployment rule of the factors has not been established. This paper proposed a probabilistic analysis model of oil pipelines network based on Bayesian network. Most of the important influencing factors, including the key environment condition and emergency response are considered in this model. Moreover, the paper also introduces a deployment rule for these factors. The model can be used in probabilistic analysis and sensitive analysis of oil pipelines network accident.

Simulation on Poisson and negative binomial models of count road accident modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sapuan, M. S.; Razali, A. M.; Zamzuri, Z. H.; Ibrahim, K.

2016-11-01

Accident count data have often been shown to have overdispersion. On the other hand, the data might contain zero count (excess zeros). The simulation study was conducted to create a scenarios which an accident happen in T-junction with the assumption the dependent variables of generated data follows certain distribution namely Poisson and negative binomial distribution with different sample size of n=30 to n=500. The study objective was accomplished by fitting Poisson regression, negative binomial regression and Hurdle negative binomial model to the simulated data. The model validation was compared and the simulation result shows for each different sample size, not all model fit the data nicely even though the data generated from its own distribution especially when the sample size is larger. Furthermore, the larger sample size indicates that more zeros accident count in the dataset.

Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Uncertainty assessment for deposited material and external doses. Volume 2: Appendices

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P.; Cooke, R.M.

1997-12-01

The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library ofmore » uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA deposited material and external dose models. This volume contains appendices that include (1) a summary of the MACCS and COSYMA consequence codes, (2) the elicitation questionnaires and case structures, (3) the rationales and results for the panel on deposited material and external doses, (4) short biographies of the experts, and (5) the aggregated results of their responses.« less

Risk Assessment in Underground Coalmines Using Fuzzy Logic in the Presence of Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tripathy, Debi Prasad; Ala, Charan Kumar

2018-04-01

Fatal accidents are occurring every year as regular events in Indian coal mining industry. To increase the safety conditions, it has become a prerequisite to performing a risk assessment of various operations in mines. However, due to uncertain accident data, it is hard to conduct a risk assessment in mines. The object of this study is to present a method to assess safety risks in underground coalmines. The assessment of safety risks is based on the fuzzy reasoning approach. Mamdani fuzzy logic model is developed in the fuzzy logic toolbox of MATLAB. A case study is used to demonstrate the applicability of the developed model. The summary of risk evaluation in case study mine indicated that mine fire has the highest risk level among all the hazard factors. This study could help the mine management to prepare safety measures based on the risk rankings obtained.

Systematic strategies for the third industrial accident prevention plan in Korea.

PubMed

Kang, Young-sig; Yang, Sung-hwan; Kim, Tae-gu; Kim, Day-sung

2012-01-01

To minimize industrial accidents, it's critical to evaluate a firm's priorities for prevention factors and strategies since such evaluation provides decisive information for preventing industrial accidents and maintaining safety management. Therefore, this paper proposes the evaluation of priorities through statistical testing of prevention factors with a cause analysis in a cause and effect model. A priority matrix criterion is proposed to apply the ranking and for the objectivity of questionnaire results. This paper used regression method (RA), exponential smoothing method (ESM), double exponential smoothing method (DESM), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and proposed analytical function method (PAFM) to analyze trends of accident data that will lead to an accurate prediction. This paper standardized the questionnaire results of workers and managers in manufacturing and construction companies with less than 300 employees, located in the central Korean metropolitan areas where fatal accidents have occurred. Finally, a strategy was provided to construct safety management for the third industrial accident prevention plan and a forecasting method for occupational accident rates and fatality rates for occupational accidents per 10,000 people.

Development of a methodology for accident causation research

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1983-06-01

The obj ective of this study was to fully develop and apply a me thodology to : study accident causation, uhich was outlined in a previous study . " Causal" factors : are those pre-crash factors, which are statistically related to the accident rate :...

Recent improvements of reactor physics codes in MHI

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kosaka, Shinya; Yamaji, Kazuya; Kirimura, Kazuki; Kamiyama, Yohei; Matsumoto, Hideki

2015-12-01

This paper introduces recent improvements for reactor physics codes in Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Ltd(MHI). MHI has developed a new neutronics design code system Galaxy/Cosmo-S(GCS) for PWR core analysis. After TEPCO's Fukushima Daiichi accident, it is required to consider design extended condition which has not been covered explicitly by the former safety licensing analyses. Under these circumstances, MHI made some improvements for GCS code system. A new resonance calculation model of lattice physics code and homogeneous cross section representative model for core simulator have been developed to apply more wide range core conditions corresponding to severe accident status such like anticipated transient without scram (ATWS) analysis and criticality evaluation of dried-up spent fuel pit. As a result of these improvements, GCS code system has very wide calculation applicability with good accuracy for any core conditions as far as fuel is not damaged. In this paper, the outline of GCS code system is described briefly and recent relevant development activities are presented.

Recent improvements of reactor physics codes in MHI

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kosaka, Shinya, E-mail: shinya-kosaka@mhi.co.jp; Yamaji, Kazuya; Kirimura, Kazuki

2015-12-31

This paper introduces recent improvements for reactor physics codes in Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Ltd(MHI). MHI has developed a new neutronics design code system Galaxy/Cosmo-S(GCS) for PWR core analysis. After TEPCO’s Fukushima Daiichi accident, it is required to consider design extended condition which has not been covered explicitly by the former safety licensing analyses. Under these circumstances, MHI made some improvements for GCS code system. A new resonance calculation model of lattice physics code and homogeneous cross section representative model for core simulator have been developed to apply more wide range core conditions corresponding to severe accident status such like anticipatedmore » transient without scram (ATWS) analysis and criticality evaluation of dried-up spent fuel pit. As a result of these improvements, GCS code system has very wide calculation applicability with good accuracy for any core conditions as far as fuel is not damaged. In this paper, the outline of GCS code system is described briefly and recent relevant development activities are presented.« less

Man, road and vehicle: risk factors associated with the severity of traffic accidents.

PubMed

Almeida, Rosa Lívia Freitas de; Bezerra Filho, José Gomes; Braga, José Ueleres; Magalhães, Francismeire Brasileiro; Macedo, Marinila Calderaro Munguba; Silva, Kellyanne Abreu

2013-08-01

To describe the main characteristics of victims, roads and vehicles involved in traffic accidents and the risk factors involved in accidents resulting in death. METHODS A non-concurrent cohort study of traffic accidents in Fortaleza, CE, Northeastern Brazil, in the period from January 2004 to December 2008. Data from the Fortaleza Traffic Accidents Information System, the Mortality Information System, the Hospital Information System and the State Traffic Department Driving Licenses and Vehicle database. Deterministic and probabilistic relationship techniques were used to integrate the databases. First, descriptive analysis of data relating to people, roads, vehicles and weather was carried out. In the investigation of risk factors for death by traffic accident, generalized linear models were used. The fit of the model was verified by likelihood ratio and ROC analysis. RESULTS There were 118,830 accidents recorded in the period. The most common types of accidents were crashes/collisions (78.1%), running over pedestrians (11.9%), colliding with a fixed obstacle (3.9%), and with motorcycles (18.1%). Deaths occurred in 1.4% of accidents. The factors that were independently associated with death by traffic accident in the final model were bicycles (OR = 21.2, 95%CI 16.1;27.8), running over pedestrians OR = 5.9 (95%CI 3.7;9.2), collision with a fixed obstacle (OR = 5.7, 95%CI 3.1;10.5) and accidents involving motorcyclists (OR = 3.5, 95%CI 2.6;4.6). The main contributing factors were a single person being involved (OR = 6.6, 95%CI 4.1;10.73), presence of unskilled drivers (OR = 4.1, 95%CI 2.9;5.5) a single vehicle (OR = 3.9, 95%CI 2,3;6,4), male (OR = 2.5, 95%CI 1.9;3.3), traffic on roads under federal jurisdiction (OR = 2.4, 95%CI 1.8;3.7), early morning hours (OR = 2.4, 95%CI 1.8;3.0), and Sundays (OR = 1.7, 95%CI 1.3;2.2), adjusted according to the log-binomial model. CONCLUSIONS Activities promoting the prevention of traffic accidents should primarily focus on accidents involving two-wheeled vehicles that most often involves a single person, unskilled, male, at nighttime, on weekends and on roads where they travel at higher speeds.

Review the number of accidents in Tehran over a two-year period and prediction of the number of events based on a time-series model

PubMed Central

Teymuri, Ghulam Heidar; Sadeghian, Marzieh; Kangavari, Mehdi; Asghari, Mehdi; Madrese, Elham; Abbasinia, Marzieh; Ahmadnezhad, Iman; Gholizadeh, Yavar

2013-01-01

Background: One of the significant dangers that threaten people’s lives is the increased risk of accidents. Annually, more than 1.3 million people die around the world as a result of accidents, and it has been estimated that approximately 300 deaths occur daily due to traffic accidents in the world with more than 50% of that number being people who were not even passengers in the cars. The aim of this study was to examine traffic accidents in Tehran and forecast the number of future accidents using a time-series model. Methods: The study was a cross-sectional study that was conducted in 2011. The sample population was all traffic accidents that caused death and physical injuries in Tehran in 2010 and 2011, as registered in the Tehran Emergency ward. The present study used Minitab 15 software to provide a description of accidents in Tehran for the specified time period as well as those that occurred during April 2012. Results: The results indicated that the average number of daily traffic accidents in Tehran in 2010 was 187 with a standard deviation of 83.6. In 2011, there was an average of 180 daily traffic accidents with a standard deviation of 39.5. One-way analysis of variance indicated that the average number of accidents in the city was different for different months of the year (P < 0.05). Most of the accidents occurred in March, July, August, and September. Thus, more accidents occurred in the summer than in the other seasons. The number of accidents was predicted based on an auto-regressive, moving average (ARMA) for April 2012. The number of accidents displayed a seasonal trend. The prediction of the number of accidents in the city during April of 2012 indicated that a total of 4,459 accidents would occur with mean of 149 accidents per day during these three months. Conclusion: The number of accidents in Tehran displayed a seasonal trend, and the number of accidents was different for different seasons of the year. PMID:26120405

Bicycle safety highway users information report

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1978-01-01

This report presents a picture of the type and frequency of bicycling accidents common to adult bicyclists using America's streets and highways. It develops accident frequencies by type, offers profiles of accident versus non-accident riders, lists p...

Development of multivariate exposure and fatal accident involvement rates for 1977

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1985-10-01

The need for multivariate accident involvement rates is often encounted in : accident analysis. The FARS (Fatal Accident Reporting System) files contain : records of fatal involvements characterized by many variables while NPTS : (National Personal T...

Overview of the U.S. DOE Accident Tolerant Fuel Development Program

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jon Carmack; Frank Goldner; Shannon M. Bragg-Sitton

2013-09-01

The United States Fuel Cycle Research and Development Advanced Fuels Campaign has been given the responsibility to conduct research and development on enhanced accident tolerant fuels with the goal of performing a lead test assembly or lead test rod irradiation in a commercial reactor by 2022. The Advanced Fuels Campaign has defined fuels with enhanced accident tolerance as those that, in comparison with the standard UO2-Zircaloy system currently used by the nuclear industry, can tolerate loss of active cooling in the reactor core for a considerably longer time period (depending on the LWR system and accident scenario) while maintaining ormore » improving the fuel performance during normal operations and operational transients, as well as design-basis and beyond design-basis events. This paper provides an overview of the FCRD Accident Tolerant Fuel program. The ATF attributes will be presented and discussed. Attributes identified as potentially important to enhance accident tolerance include reduced hydrogen generation (resulting from cladding oxidation), enhanced fission product retention under severe accident conditions, reduced cladding reaction with high-temperature steam, and improved fuel-cladding interaction for enhanced performance under extreme conditions. To demonstrate the enhanced accident tolerance of candidate fuel designs, metrics must be developed and evaluated using a combination of design features for a given LWR design, potential improvements to that design, and the design of an advanced fuel/cladding system. The aforementioned attributes provide qualitative guidance for parameters that will be considered for fuels with enhanced accident tolerance. It may be unnecessary to improve in all attributes and it is likely that some attributes or combination of attributes provide meaningful gains in accident tolerance, while others may provide only marginal benefits. Thus, an initial step in program implementation will be the development of quantitative metrics. A companion paper in these proceedings provides an update on the status of establishing these quantitative metrics for accident tolerant LWR fuel.1 The United States FCRD Advanced Fuels Campaign has embarked on an aggressive schedule for development of enhanced accident tolerant LWR fuels. The goal of developing such a fuel system that can be deployed in the U.S. LWR fleet in the next 10 to 20 years supports the sustainability of clean nuclear power generation in the United States.« less

A multi-agent safety response model in the construction industry.

PubMed

Meliá, José L

2015-01-01

The construction industry is one of the sectors with the highest accident rates and the most serious accidents. A multi-agent safety response approach allows a useful diagnostic tool in order to understand factors affecting risk and accidents. The special features of the construction sector can influence the relationships among safety responses along the model of safety influences. The purpose of this paper is to test a model explaining risk and work-related accidents in the construction industry as a result of the safety responses of the organization, the supervisors, the co-workers and the worker. 374 construction employees belonging to 64 small Spanish construction companies working for two main companies participated in the study. Safety responses were measured using a 45-item Likert-type questionnaire. The structure of the measure was analyzed using factor analysis and the model of effects was tested using a structural equation model. Factor analysis clearly identifies the multi-agent safety dimensions hypothesized. The proposed safety response model of work-related accidents, involving construction specific results, showed a good fit. The multi-agent safety response approach to safety climate is a useful framework for the assessment of organizational and behavioral risks in construction.

Decrease of morbidity in road traffic accidents in a high income country - an analysis of 24,405 accidents in a 21 year period.

PubMed

Ernstberger, Antonio; Joeris, Alexander; Daigl, Monica; Kiss, Miklos; Angerpointner, Katharina; Nerlich, Michael; Schmucker, Uli

2015-10-01

The WHO initiated the "Decade of Action for Road Safety" because the fatality on road traffic accidents could become the fifth leading cause of death in 2030. On the contrary, fatalities continue to decrease in high income countries. The aim of the study was to find evidence for changes in injury severity of passenger car occupants after road traffic accidents in Germany over time, and to find contributing factors. Data from the German In Depth Accident Study (GIDAS), representative for Germany, was used. A total of 24.405 accidents, reported from 1991 until 2011. 44.503 adult passenger car occupants were examined. A multivariable logistic regression model was developed to find reasons for observed trends over time. The relative decrease in mortality was 68.8% from 1991 until 2011. Between 2006 and 2011, the percentage of severely injured traffic victims was less than half, both in terms of the whole body and individual body regions. For injuries with an Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) ≥ 2, the percentage of persons with lower leg injuries declined by 72.5%, followed by the percentage of persons with pelvic injuries (61.5%), upper extremity injuries (57.7%), head injuries (54.3%), thorax injuries (50.0%), and abdomen injuries (40.0%). The multivariable regression model found 13 independent variables associated with injury prevention (e.g. seat belt use: OR 0.41, CI 95% 0.32-0.49; airbag: OR 0.86, CI 95% 0.75-0.99). The implementation of protective factors increased over time while accident constellations with a high probability for severe injury decreased over time. The decrease of severe injuries after road traffic accidents can be only attributed to a comprehensive approach including the enforcement of road safety policies and innovations in car engineering and emergency medicine. Traffic related measures and alcohol level control, and seat belt usage enforcement next to other technical advances are considered especially important. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Rough set approach for accident chains exploration.

PubMed

Wong, Jinn-Tsai; Chung, Yi-Shih

2007-05-01

This paper presents a novel non-parametric methodology--rough set theory--for accident occurrence exploration. The rough set theory allows researchers to analyze accidents in multiple dimensions and to model accident occurrence as factor chains. Factor chains are composed of driver characteristics, trip characteristics, driver behavior and environment factors that imply typical accident occurrence. A real-world database (2003 Taiwan single auto-vehicle accidents) is used as an example to demonstrate the proposed approach. The results show that although most accident patterns are unique, some accident patterns are significant and worth noting. Student drivers who are young and less experienced exhibit a relatively high possibility of being involved in off-road accidents on roads with a speed limit between 51 and 79 km/h under normal driving circumstances. Notably, for bump-into-facility accidents, wet surface is a distinctive environmental factor.

A few seconds to have an accident, a long time to recover: consequences for road accident victims from the ESPARR cohort 2 years after the accident.

PubMed

Tournier, Charlène; Charnay, Pierrette; Tardy, Hélène; Chossegros, Laetitia; Carnis, Laurent; Hours, Martine

2014-11-01

The aim of the present study was to describe the consequences of a road accident in adults, taking account of the type of road user, and to determine predictive factors for consequences at 2 years. Prospective follow-up study. The cohort was composed of 1168 victims of road traffic accidents, aged ≥16 years. Two years after the accident, 912 victims completed a self-administered questionnaire. Weighted logistic regression models were implemented to compare casualties still reporting impact related to the accident versus those reporting no residual impact. Five outcomes were analysed: unrecovered health status, impact on occupation or studies, on familial or affective life, on leisure or sport activities and but also the financial difficulties related to the accident. 46.1% of respondents were motorised four-wheel users, 29.6% motorised two-wheel (including quad) users, 13.3% pedestrians (including inline skate and push scooter users) and 11.1% cyclists. 53.3% reported unrecovered health status, 32.0% persisting impact on occupation or studies, 25.2% on familial or affective life, 46.9% on leisure or sport activities and 20.2% still had accident-related financial difficulties. Type of user, adjusted on age and gender, was linked to unrecovered health status and to impact on leisure or sport activities. When global severity (as measured by NISS) was integrated in the previous model, type of user was also associated with impact on occupation or studies. Type of user was further associated with impact on occupation or studies and on leisure or sport activities when global severity and the sociodemographic data obtained at inclusion were taken into account. It was not, however, related to any of the outcomes studied here, when the models focused on the injured body region. Finally, type of road user did not seem, on the various predictive models, to be related to financial difficulties due to the accident or to impact on familial or affective life. Overall, victims were affected by their accident even 2 years after it occurred. The severity of lesions induced by the accident was the main predictive factor. However, considering lesion as intermediary factors between the accident and the recovery status at 2 year post-accident, impact on health status was lower for cyclists than M4W users or M2W users. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

A benchmark for fault tolerant flight control evaluation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smaili, H.; Breeman, J.; Lombaerts, T.; Stroosma, O.

2013-12-01

A large transport aircraft simulation benchmark (REconfigurable COntrol for Vehicle Emergency Return - RECOVER) has been developed within the GARTEUR (Group for Aeronautical Research and Technology in Europe) Flight Mechanics Action Group 16 (FM-AG(16)) on Fault Tolerant Control (2004 2008) for the integrated evaluation of fault detection and identification (FDI) and reconfigurable flight control strategies. The benchmark includes a suitable set of assessment criteria and failure cases, based on reconstructed accident scenarios, to assess the potential of new adaptive control strategies to improve aircraft survivability. The application of reconstruction and modeling techniques, based on accident flight data, has resulted in high-fidelity nonlinear aircraft and fault models to evaluate new Fault Tolerant Flight Control (FTFC) concepts and their real-time performance to accommodate in-flight failures.

Linking Doses with Clinical Scores of Hematopoietic Acute Radiation Syndrome.

PubMed

Hu, Shaowen

2016-10-01

In radiation accidents, determining the radiation dose the victim received is a key step for medical decision making and patient prognosis. To reconstruct and evaluate the absorbed dose, researchers have developed many physical devices and biological techniques during the last decades. However, using the physical parameter "absorbed dose" alone is not sufficient to predict the clinical development of the various organs injured in an individual patient. In operational situations for radiation accidents, medical responders need more urgently to classify the severity of the radiation injury based on the signs and symptoms of the patient. In this work, the author uses a unified hematopoietic model to describe dose-dependent dynamics of granulocytes, lymphocytes, and platelets, and the corresponding clinical grading of hematopoietic acute radiation syndrome. This approach not only visualizes the time course of the patient's probable outcome in the form of graphs but also indirectly gives information of the remaining stem and progenitor cells, which are responsible for the autologous recovery of the hematopoietic system. Because critical information on the patient's clinical evolution can be provided within a short time after exposure and only peripheral cell counts are required for the simulation, these modeling tools will be useful to assess radiation exposure and injury in human-involved radiation accident/incident scenarios.

Advanced Instrumentation for Transient Reactor Testing

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Corradini, Michael L.; Anderson, Mark; Imel, George

Transient testing involves placing fuel or material into the core of specialized materials test reactors that are capable of simulating a range of design basis accidents, including reactivity insertion accidents, that require the reactor produce short bursts of intense highpower neutron flux and gamma radiation. Testing fuel behavior in a prototypic neutron environment under high-power, accident-simulation conditions is a key step in licensing nuclear fuels for use in existing and future nuclear power plants. Transient testing of nuclear fuels is needed to develop and prove the safety basis for advanced reactors and fuels. In addition, modern fuel development and designmore » increasingly relies on modeling and simulation efforts that must be informed and validated using specially designed material performance separate effects studies. These studies will require experimental facilities that are able to support variable scale, highly instrumented tests providing data that have appropriate spatial and temporal resolution. Finally, there are efforts now underway to develop advanced light water reactor (LWR) fuels with enhanced performance and accident tolerance. These advanced reactor designs will also require new fuel types. These new fuels need to be tested in a controlled environment in order to learn how they respond to accident conditions. For these applications, transient reactor testing is needed to help design fuels with improved performance. In order to maximize the value of transient testing, there is a need for in-situ transient realtime imaging technology (e.g., the neutron detection and imaging system like the hodoscope) to see fuel motion during rapid transient excursions with a higher degree of spatial and temporal resolution and accuracy. There also exists a need for new small, compact local sensors and instrumentation that are capable of collecting data during transients (e.g., local displacements, temperatures, thermal conductivity, neutron flux, etc.).« less

Methods of measuring radioactivity in the environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Isaksson, Mats

In this thesis a variety of sampling methods have been utilised to assess the amount of deposited activity, mainly of 137Cs, from the Chernobyl accident and from the nuclear weapons tests. Starting with the Chernobyl accident in 1986 sampling of air and rain was used to determine the composition and amount of radioactive debris from this accident, brought to southern Sweden by the weather systems. The resulting deposition and its removal from urban areas was than studied through measurements on sewage sludge and water. The main part of the thesis considers methods of determining the amount of radiocaesium in the ground through soil sampling. In connection with soil sampling a method of optimising the sampling procedure has been developed and tested in the areas of Sweden which have a comparatively high amount of 137Cs from the Chernobyl accident. This method was then used in a survey of the activity in soil in Lund and Skane, divided between nuclear weapons fallout and fallout from the Chernobyl accident. By comparing the results from this survey with deposition calculated from precipitation measurements it was found possible to predict the deposition pattern over Skane for both nuclear weapons fallout and fallout from the Chernobyl accident. In addition, the vertical distribution of 137Cs has been modelled and the temporal variation of the depth distribution has been described.

From military to civil loadings: Preliminary numerical-based thorax injury criteria investigations.

PubMed

Goumtcha, Aristide Awoukeng; Bodo, Michèle; Taddei, Lorenzo; Roth, Sébastien

2016-03-01

Effects of the impact of a mechanical structure on the human body are of great interest in the understanding of body trauma. Experimental tests have led to first conclusions about the dangerousness of an impact observing impact forces or displacement time history with PMHS (Post Mortem human Subjects). They have allowed providing interesting data for the development and the validation of numerical biomechanical models. These models, widely used in the framework of automotive crashworthiness, have led to the development of numerical-based injury criteria and tolerance thresholds. The aim of this process is to improve the safety of mechanical structures in interaction with the body. In a military context, investigations both at experimental and numerical level are less successfully completed. For both military and civil frameworks, the literature list a number of numerical analysis trying to propose injury mechanisms, and tolerance thresholds based on biofidelic Finite Element (FE) models of different part of the human body. However the link between both frameworks is not obvious, since lots of parameters are different: great mass impacts at relatively low velocity for civil impacts (falls, automotive crashworthiness) and low mass at very high velocity for military loadings (ballistic, blast). In this study, different accident cases were investigated, and replicated with a previously developed and validated FE model of the human thorax named Hermaphrodite Universal Biomechanical YX model (HUBYX model). These previous validations included replications of standard experimental tests often used to validate models in the context of automotive industry, experimental ballistic tests in high speed dynamic impact and also numerical replication of blast loading test ensuring its biofidelity. In order to extend the use of this model in other frameworks, some real-world accidents were reconstructed, and consequences of these loadings on the FE model were explored. These various numerical replications of accident coming from different contexts raise the question about the ability of a FE model to correctly predict several kinds of trauma, from blast or ballistic impacts to falls, sports or automotive ones in a context of numerical injury mechanisms and tolerance limits investigations. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Research on driver fatigue detection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Ting; Chen, Zhong; Ouyang, Chao

2018-03-01

Driver fatigue is one of the main causes of frequent traffic accidents. In this case, driver fatigue detection system has very important significance in avoiding traffic accidents. This paper presents a real-time method based on fusion of multiple facial features, including eye closure, yawn and head movement. The eye state is classified as being open or closed by a linear SVM classifier trained using HOG features of the detected eye. The mouth state is determined according to the width-height ratio of the mouth. The head movement is detected by head pitch angle calculated by facial landmark. The driver's fatigue state can be reasoned by the model trained by above features. According to experimental results, drive fatigue detection obtains an excellent performance. It indicates that the developed method is valuable for the application of avoiding traffic accidents caused by driver's fatigue.

Understanding factors associated with misclassification of fatigue-related accidents in police record.

PubMed

Li, Yanyan; Yamamoto, Toshiyuki; Zhang, Guangnan

2018-02-01

Fatigue is one of the riskiest causes of traffic accidents threatening road safety. Due to lack of proper criteria, the identification of fatigue-related accidents by police officers largely depends on inferential evidence and their own experience. As a result, many fatigue-related accidents are misclassified and the harmfulness of fatigue on road safety is misestimated. In this paper, a joint model framework is introduced to analyze factors contributing to misclassification of a fatigue-related accident in police reports. Association rule data mining technique is employed to identify the potential interactions of factors, and logistic regression models are applied to analyze factors that hinder police officers' identification of fatigue-related accidents. Using the fatigue-related crash records from Guangdong Province during 2005-2014, factors contributing to the false positive and false negative detection of the fatigue-related accident have been identified and compared. Some variables and interactions were identified to have significant impacts on fatigue-related accident detection. Based on the results, it can be inferred that the stereotype of certain groups of drivers, crash types, and roadway conditions affects police officers' judgment on fatigue-related accidents. This finding can provide useful information for training police officers and build better criteria for fatigue identification. Copyright © 2017 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effective environmental factors on geographical distribution of traffic accidents on pedestrians, downtown Tehran city.

PubMed

Moradi, Ali; Soori, Hamid; Kavousi, Amir; Eshghabadi, Farshid; Nematollahi, Shahrzad; Zeini, Salahdien

2017-01-01

In most countries, occurrence of traffic causalities is high in pedestrians. The aim of this study is to geographically analyze the traffic casualties in pedestrians in downtown Tehran city. The study population consisted of traffic injury accidents in pedestrians occurred during 2015 in Tehran city. Data were extracted from offices of traffic police and municipality. For analysis of environmental factors and site of accidents, ordinary least square regression models and geographically weighted regression were used. Fitness and performance of models were checked using the Akaike information criteria, Bayesian information criteria, deviance, and adjusted R 2 . Totally, 514 accidents were included in this study. Of them, site of accidents was arterial streets in 370 (71.9%) cases, collector streets in 133 cases (25.2%), and highways in 11 cases (2.1%). Geographical units of traffic accidents in pedestrians had statistically significant relationship with a number of bus stations, number of crossroads, and recreational areas. Distribution of injury traffic accidents in pedestrians is different in downtown Tehran city. Neighborhoods close to markets are considered as most dangerous neighborhoods for injury traffic accidents. Different environmental factors are involved in determining the distribution of these accidents. The health of pedestrians in Tehran city can be improved by proper traffic management, control of environmental factors, and educational programs.

Model regulations and public education for rural-suburban pedestrian safety

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1980-08-01

The objectives of this study were to review the rural-suburban pedestrian accident data (Knoblauch, 1977) and freeway pedestrian accident data (Knoblauch, Moore and Schmitz, 1976) and determine which accident types were amenable to countermeasures de...

Precursors of dangerous substances formed in the loss of control of chemical systems.

PubMed

Cozzani, V; Zanelli, S

1999-03-01

Article 2 of Directive 96/82/EC on the control of major accident hazards caused by dangerous substances requires to consider also the hazards due to the dangerous substances "which it is believed may be generated during loss of control of an industrial chemical process", although no generally accepted guidelines are available for the identification of these substances. In the present study, the accidents involving the unwanted formation of dangerous substances as a consequence of the loss of control of chemical systems were investigated. A specifically developed database was used, containing data on more than 400 of these accidents and on the substances involved. The hazardous substances formed in the accidents and the precursors of these substances were identified. The influence of accident characteristics on the substances formed was investigated. In the context of the application of Directive 96/82/EC, an accident severity index and a hazard rating of the precursors of dangerous substances formed in the accidents were proposed. A lumping approach was used in order to develop schemes for the preliminary identification of substances that may be formed in the loss of control of chemical system. The results of accident analysis were used to test the schemes developed.

Long term radiocesium contamination of fruit trees following the Chernobyl accident.

PubMed

Antonopoulos-Domis, M; Clouvas, A; Gagianas, A

1996-12-01

Radiocesium contamination from the Chernobyl accident of fruits and leaves from various fruit trees was systematically studied from 1990 to 1995 on two agricultural experimentation farms in Northern Greece. The results are discussed in the framework of a previously published model describing the long-term radiocesium contamination mechanism of deciduous fruit trees after a nuclear accident. The results of the present work qualitatively verify the model predictions.

A crash-prediction model for multilane roads.

PubMed

Caliendo, Ciro; Guida, Maurizio; Parisi, Alessandra

2007-07-01

Considerable research has been carried out in recent years to establish relationships between crashes and traffic flow, geometric infrastructure characteristics and environmental factors for two-lane rural roads. Crash-prediction models focused on multilane rural roads, however, have rarely been investigated. In addition, most research has paid but little attention to the safety effects of variables such as stopping sight distance and pavement surface characteristics. Moreover, the statistical approaches have generally included Poisson and Negative Binomial regression models, whilst Negative Multinomial regression model has been used to a lesser extent. Finally, as far as the authors are aware, prediction models involving all the above-mentioned factors have still not been developed in Italy for multilane roads, such as motorways. Thus, in this paper crash-prediction models for a four-lane median-divided Italian motorway were set up on the basis of accident data observed during a 5-year monitoring period extending between 1999 and 2003. The Poisson, Negative Binomial and Negative Multinomial regression models, applied separately to tangents and curves, were used to model the frequency of accident occurrence. Model parameters were estimated by the Maximum Likelihood Method, and the Generalized Likelihood Ratio Test was applied to detect the significant variables to be included in the model equation. Goodness-of-fit was measured by means of both the explained fraction of total variation and the explained fraction of systematic variation. The Cumulative Residuals Method was also used to test the adequacy of a regression model throughout the range of each variable. The candidate set of explanatory variables was: length (L), curvature (1/R), annual average daily traffic (AADT), sight distance (SD), side friction coefficient (SFC), longitudinal slope (LS) and the presence of a junction (J). Separate prediction models for total crashes and for fatal and injury crashes only were considered. For curves it is shown that significant variables are L, 1/R and AADT, whereas for tangents they are L, AADT and junctions. The effect of rain precipitation was analysed on the basis of hourly rainfall data and assumptions about drying time. It is shown that a wet pavement significantly increases the number of crashes. The models developed in this paper for Italian motorways appear to be useful for many applications such as the detection of critical factors, the estimation of accident reduction due to infrastructure and pavement improvement, and the predictions of accidents counts when comparing different design options. Thus this research may represent a point of reference for engineers in adjusting or designing multilane roads.

The effect of road and environmental characteristics on pedestrian hit-and-run accidents in Ghana.

PubMed

Aidoo, Eric Nimako; Amoh-Gyimah, Richard; Ackaah, Williams

2013-04-01

The number of pedestrians who have died as a result of being hit by vehicles has increased in recent years, in addition to vehicle passenger deaths. Many pedestrians who were involved in road traffic accident died as a result of the driver leaving the pedestrian who was struck unattended at the scene of the accident. This paper seeks to determine the effect of road and environmental characteristics on pedestrian hit-and-run accidents in Ghana. Using pedestrian accident data extracted from the National Road Traffic Accident Database at the Building and Road Research Institute (BRRI) of the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), Ghana, a binary logit model was employed in the analysis. The results from the estimated model indicate that fatal accidents, unclear weather, nighttime conditions, and straight and flat road sections without medians and junctions significantly increase the likelihood that the vehicle driver will leave the scene after hitting a pedestrian. Thus, integrating median separation and speed humps into road design and construction and installing street lights will help to curb the problem of pedestrian hit-and-run accidents in Ghana. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Joint release rate estimation and measurement-by-measurement model correction for atmospheric radionuclide emission in nuclear accidents: An application to wind tunnel experiments.

PubMed

Li, Xinpeng; Li, Hong; Liu, Yun; Xiong, Wei; Fang, Sheng

2018-03-05

The release rate of atmospheric radionuclide emissions is a critical factor in the emergency response to nuclear accidents. However, there are unavoidable biases in radionuclide transport models, leading to inaccurate estimates. In this study, a method that simultaneously corrects these biases and estimates the release rate is developed. Our approach provides a more complete measurement-by-measurement correction of the biases with a coefficient matrix that considers both deterministic and stochastic deviations. This matrix and the release rate are jointly solved by the alternating minimization algorithm. The proposed method is generic because it does not rely on specific features of transport models or scenarios. It is validated against wind tunnel experiments that simulate accidental releases in a heterogonous and densely built nuclear power plant site. The sensitivities to the position, number, and quality of measurements and extendibility of the method are also investigated. The results demonstrate that this method effectively corrects the model biases, and therefore outperforms Tikhonov's method in both release rate estimation and model prediction. The proposed approach is robust to uncertainties and extendible with various center estimators, thus providing a flexible framework for robust source inversion in real accidents, even if large uncertainties exist in multiple factors. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

NASA: Model development for human factors interfacing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, L. L.

1984-01-01

The results of an intensive literature review in the general topics of human error analysis, stress and job performance, and accident and safety analysis revealed no usable techniques or approaches for analyzing human error in ground or space operations tasks. A task review model is described and proposed to be developed in order to reduce the degree of labor intensiveness in ground and space operations tasks. An extensive number of annotated references are provided.

Evaluation of methods for predicting rail-highway crossing hazards.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1986-01-01

The need for improvement at a rail/highway crossing typically is based on the Expected Accident Rate (EAR) in conjunction with other criteria carrying lesser weight. In recent years new models for assessing the need for improvements have been develop...

Steam Oxidation Testing in the Severe Accident Test Station

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pint, Bruce A.; McMurray, Jake W.

2016-08-01

Since 2011, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) has been conducting high temperature steam oxidation testing of candidate alloys for accident tolerant fuel (ATF) cladding. These concepts are designed to enhance safety margins in light water reactors (LWR) during severe accident scenarios. In the US ATF community, the Severe Accident Test Station (SATS) has been evaluating candidate materials (including coatings) since 2012. Compared to the current UO 2/Zr-based alloy fuel system, alternative cladding materials need to offer slower oxidation kinetics and a smaller enthalpy of oxidation in order to significantly reduce the rate of heat and hydrogen generation in the coremore » during a coolant-limited severe accident. The steam oxidation behavior of candidate materials is a key metric in the evaluation of ATF concepts and also an important input into models. However, prior modeling work of FeCrAl cladding has used incomplete information on the physical properties of FeCrAl. Also, the steam oxidation data being collected at 1200°-1700°C is unique as no prior work has considered steam oxidation of alloys at such high temperatures. In some cases, the results have been difficult to interpret and more fundamental information is needed such as the stability of alumina in flowing steam at 1400°-1500°C. This report summarizes recent work to measure the steam oxidation kinetics of candidate alloys, the evaporation rate of alumina in steam and the development of integral data on FeCrAl compared to conventional Zr-based cladding.« less

The situation of hazardous chemical accidents in China between 2000 and 2006.

PubMed

Duan, Weili; Chen, Guohua; Ye, Qing; Chen, Qingguang

2011-02-28

From the aspects of the total quantity of accidents, regional inequality, enterprises scale and environmental pollution accidents, this study makes an analysis of hazardous chemical accidents in China for the period spanning from 2000 to 2006. The following results are obtained: firstly, there were lots of accidents and fatalities in hazardous chemical business, i.e., the number of casualty accidents fluctuated between 200 and 600/year, the number of fatality fluctuated between 220 and 1100/year. Secondly, the accident rate in developed southeast coastal areas, e.g., Guangdong, Zhejiang and Jiangsu, was far higher than that in the northwest regions, e.g., Xizang, Xinjiang, and Qinghai. Thirdly, nearly 80% of dangerous chemical accidents had occurred in small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Finally, various sudden environmental pollution accidents resulted from hazardous chemicals were frequent in recent years, causing a huge damage to human and property. Then, based on the readjustment of economic structure in the last decades, the development status of Occupational Health and Safety (OHS) in SMEs and other factors, the paper explores the main causes, which offers valuable insight into measures that should be taken to reduce hazardous chemical accidents. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Study on quantitative risk assessment model of the third party damage for natural gas pipelines based on fuzzy comprehensive assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qiu, Zeyang; Liang, Wei; Wang, Xue; Lin, Yang; Zhang, Meng

2017-05-01

As an important part of national energy supply system, transmission pipelines for natural gas are possible to cause serious environmental pollution, life and property loss in case of accident. The third party damage is one of the most significant causes for natural gas pipeline system accidents, and it is very important to establish an effective quantitative risk assessment model of the third party damage for reducing the number of gas pipelines operation accidents. Against the third party damage accident has the characteristics such as diversity, complexity and uncertainty, this paper establishes a quantitative risk assessment model of the third party damage based on Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation (FCE). Firstly, risk sources of third party damage should be identified exactly, and the weight of factors could be determined via improved AHP, finally the importance of each factor is calculated by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model. The results show that the quantitative risk assessment model is suitable for the third party damage of natural gas pipelines and improvement measures could be put forward to avoid accidents based on the importance of each factor.

Modeling traffic accidents at signalized intersections in the city of Norfolk, VA.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-12-31

This study was an attempt to apply a proactive approach using traffic pattern and signalized intersection characteristics to predict accident rates at signalized intersections in a citys arterial network. An earlier analysis of accident data at se...

76 FR 35330 - Airworthiness Directives; Robinson Helicopter Company Model (Robinson) R22, R22 Alpha, R22 Beta...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-06-17

... necessary rework. This amendment is prompted by a fatal accident in Israel. We have also included responses... accident due to blade delamination occurred in Israel. The accident investigation revealed that the...

Safety Metrics for Human-Computer Controlled Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Leveson, Nancy G; Hatanaka, Iwao

2000-01-01

The rapid growth of computer technology and innovation has played a significant role in the rise of computer automation of human tasks in modem production systems across all industries. Although the rationale for automation has been to eliminate "human error" or to relieve humans from manual repetitive tasks, various computer-related hazards and accidents have emerged as a direct result of increased system complexity attributed to computer automation. The risk assessment techniques utilized for electromechanical systems are not suitable for today's software-intensive systems or complex human-computer controlled systems.This thesis will propose a new systemic model-based framework for analyzing risk in safety-critical systems where both computers and humans are controlling safety-critical functions. A new systems accident model will be developed based upon modem systems theory and human cognitive processes to better characterize system accidents, the role of human operators, and the influence of software in its direct control of significant system functions Better risk assessments will then be achievable through the application of this new framework to complex human-computer controlled systems.

Class and Home Problems. Modeling an Explosion: The Devil Is in the Details

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hart, Peter W.; Rudie, Alan W.

2011-01-01

Within the past 15 years, three North American pulp mills experienced catastrophic equipment failures while using 50 wt% hydrogen peroxide. In two cases, explosions occurred when normal pulp flow was interrupted due to other process problems. To understand the accidents, a kinetic model of alkali-catalyzed decomposition of peroxide was developed.…

The Self-Powered Detector Simulation `MATiSSe' Toolbox applied to SPNDs for severe accident monitoring in PWRs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barbot, Loïc; Villard, Jean-François; Fourrez, Stéphane; Pichon, Laurent; Makil, Hamid

2018-01-01

In the framework of the French National Research Agency program on nuclear safety and radioprotection, the `DIstributed Sensing for COrium Monitoring and Safety' project aims at developing innovative instrumentation for corium monitoring in case of severe accident in a Pressurized Water nuclear Reactor. Among others, a new under-vessel instrumentation based on Self-Powered Neutron Detectors is developed using a numerical simulation toolbox, named `MATiSSe'. The CEA Instrumentation Sensors and Dosimetry Lab developed MATiSSe since 2010 for Self-Powered Neutron Detectors material selection and geometry design, as well as for their respective partial neutron and gamma sensitivity calculations. MATiSSe is based on a comprehensive model of neutron and gamma interactions which take place in Selfpowered neutron detector components using the MCNP6 Monte Carlo code. As member of the project consortium, the THERMOCOAX SAS Company is currently manufacturing some instrumented pole prototypes to be tested in 2017. The full severe accident monitoring equipment, including the standalone low current acquisition system, will be tested during a joined CEA-THERMOCOAX experimental campaign in some realistic irradiation conditions, in the Slovenian TRIGA Mark II research reactor.

Development of a Dynamically Scaled Generic Transport Model Testbed for Flight Research Experiments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jordan, Thomas; Langford, William; Belcastro, Christine; Foster, John; Shah, Gautam; Howland, Gregory; Kidd, Reggie

2004-01-01

This paper details the design and development of the Airborne Subscale Transport Aircraft Research (AirSTAR) test-bed at NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC). The aircraft is a 5.5% dynamically scaled, remotely piloted, twin-turbine, swept wing, Generic Transport Model (GTM) which will be used to provide an experimental flight test capability for research experiments pertaining to dynamics modeling and control beyond the normal flight envelope. The unique design challenges arising from the dimensional, weight, dynamic (inertial), and actuator scaling requirements necessitated by the research community are described along with the specific telemetry and control issues associated with a remotely piloted subscale research aircraft. Development of the necessary operational infrastructure, including operational and safety procedures, test site identification, and research pilots is also discussed. The GTM is a unique vehicle that provides significant research capacity due to its scaling, data gathering, and control characteristics. By combining data from this testbed with full-scale flight and accident data, wind tunnel data, and simulation results, NASA will advance and validate control upset prevention and recovery technologies for transport aircraft, thereby reducing vehicle loss-of-control accidents resulting from adverse and upset conditions.

STARDUST-U experiments on fluid-dynamic conditions affecting dust mobilization during LOVAs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poggi, L. A.; Malizia, A.; Ciparisse, J. F.; Tieri, F.; Gelfusa, M.; Murari, A.; Del Papa, C.; Giovannangeli, I.; Gaudio, P.

2016-07-01

Since 2006 the Quantum Electronics and Plasma Physics (QEP) Research Group together with ENEA FusTech of Frascati have been working on dust re-suspension inside tokamaks and its potential capability to jeopardize the integrity of future fusion nuclear plants (i.e. ITER or DEMO) and to be a risk for the health of the operators. Actually, this team is working with the improved version of the "STARDUST" facility, i.e. "STARDUST-Upgrade". STARDUST-U facility has four new air inlet ports that allow the experimental replication of Loss of Vacuum Accidents (LOVAs). The experimental campaign to detect the different pressurization rates, local air velocity, temperature, have been carried out from all the ports in different accident conditions and the principal results will be analyzed and compared with the numerical simulations obtained through a CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamic) code. This preliminary thermo fluid-dynamic analysis of the accident is crucial for numerical model development and validation, and for the incoming experimental campaign of dust resuspension inside STARDUST-U due to well-defined accidents presented in this paper.

Development of a tool for calculating early internal doses in the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident based on atmospheric dispersion simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kurihara, Osamu; Kim, Eunjoo; Kunishima, Naoaki; Tani, Kotaro; Ishikawa, Tetsuo; Furuyama, Kazuo; Hashimoto, Shozo; Akashi, Makoto

2017-09-01

A tool was developed to facilitate the calculation of the early internal doses to residents involved in the Fukushima Nuclear Disaster based on atmospheric transport and dispersion model (ATDM) simulations performed using Worldwide version of System for Prediction of Environmental Emergency Information 2nd version (WSPEEDI-II) together with personal behavior data containing the history of the whereabouts of individul's after the accident. The tool generates hourly-averaged air concentration data for the simulation grids nearest to an individual's whereabouts using WSPEEDI-II datasets for the subsequent calculation of internal doses due to inhalation. This paper presents an overview of the developed tool and provides tentative comparisons between direct measurement-based and ATDM-based results regarding the internal doses received by 421 persons from whom personal behavior data available.

[Model of Analysis and Prevention of Accidents - MAPA: tool for operational health surveillance].

PubMed

de Almeida, Ildeberto Muniz; Vilela, Rodolfo Andrade de Gouveia; da Silva, Alessandro José Nunes; Beltran, Sandra Lorena

2014-12-01

The analysis of work-related accidents is important for accident surveillance and prevention. Current methods of analysis seek to overcome reductionist views that see these occurrences as simple events explained by operator error. The objective of this paper is to analyze the Model of Analysis and Prevention of Accidents (MAPA) and its use in monitoring interventions, duly highlighting aspects experienced in the use of the tool. The descriptive analytical method was used, introducing the steps of the model. To illustrate contributions and or difficulties, cases where the tool was used in the context of service were selected. MAPA integrates theoretical approaches that have already been tried in studies of accidents by providing useful conceptual support from the data collection stage until conclusion and intervention stages. Besides revealing weaknesses of the traditional approach, it helps identify organizational determinants, such as management failings, system design and safety management involved in the accident. The main challenges lie in the grasp of concepts by users, in exploring organizational aspects upstream in the chain of decisions or at higher levels of the hierarchy, as well as the intervention to change the determinants of these events.

SOARCA Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Long-Term Station Blackout Uncertainty Analysis: Knowledge Advancement.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gauntt, Randall O.; Mattie, Patrick D.; Bixler, Nathan E.

2014-02-01

This paper describes the knowledge advancements from the uncertainty analysis for the State-of- the-Art Reactor Consequence Analyses (SOARCA) unmitigated long-term station blackout accident scenario at the Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station. This work assessed key MELCOR and MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System, Version 2 (MACCS2) modeling uncertainties in an integrated fashion to quantify the relative importance of each uncertain input on potential accident progression, radiological releases, and off-site consequences. This quantitative uncertainty analysis provides measures of the effects on consequences, of each of the selected uncertain parameters both individually and in interaction with other parameters. The results measure the modelmore » response (e.g., variance in the output) to uncertainty in the selected input. Investigation into the important uncertain parameters in turn yields insights into important phenomena for accident progression and off-site consequences. This uncertainty analysis confirmed the known importance of some parameters, such as failure rate of the Safety Relief Valve in accident progression modeling and the dry deposition velocity in off-site consequence modeling. The analysis also revealed some new insights, such as dependent effect of cesium chemical form for different accident progressions. (auth)« less

Road accidents caused by sleepy drivers: Update of a Norwegian survey.

PubMed

Phillips, Ross Owen; Sagberg, Fridulv

2013-01-01

The current study tests, updates and expands a model of factors associated with sleepy driving, originally based on a 1997 survey of accident-involved Norwegian drivers (Sagberg, F., 1999. Road accidents caused by drivers falling asleep. Accident Analysis & Prevention 31, 639-649). The aim is to establish a robust model to inform measures to tackle sleepy driving. The original questions on (i) tiredness-related accidents and (ii) incidents of sleep behind the wheel in the last 12 months were again posed in 2003 and 2008, in independent surveys of Norwegian drivers involved in accidents reported to a large insurance company. According to those drivers at-fault for the accident, tiredness or sleepiness behind the wheel contributed to between 1.9 and 3.9 per cent of all types of accident reported to the insurance company across these years. Accident-involved drivers not at fault for the accident reported a reduction in the incidence of sleep behind the wheel for the preceding year, decreasing from 8.3 per cent in 1997 to 2.9 per cent in 2008. The reasons for this are not clear. According to logistic regression analysis of survey responses, the following factors were robustly associated with road accidents involving sleepy driving: driving off the road; good road conditions; longer distance driven since the start of the trip; and fewer years with a driving licence. The following factors are consistently associated with reports of sleep behind the wheel, whether or not it leads to an accident: being male; driving further per year; being younger; and having sleep-related health problems. Taken together these findings suggest that young, inexperienced male drivers who drive long distances may be a suitable target for road safety campaigns aimed at tackling sleepy driving. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessment and prediction of road accident injuries trend using time-series models in Kurdistan.

PubMed

Parvareh, Maryam; Karimi, Asrin; Rezaei, Satar; Woldemichael, Abraha; Nili, Sairan; Nouri, Bijan; Nasab, Nader Esmail

2018-01-01

Road traffic accidents are commonly encountered incidents that can cause high-intensity injuries to the victims and have direct impacts on the members of the society. Iran has one of the highest incident rates of road traffic accidents. The objective of this study was to model the patterns of road traffic accidents leading to injury in Kurdistan province, Iran. A time-series analysis was conducted to characterize and predict the frequency of road traffic accidents that lead to injury in Kurdistan province. The injuries were categorized into three separate groups which were related to the car occupants, motorcyclists and pedestrian road traffic accident injuries. The Box-Jenkins time-series analysis was used to model the injury observations applying autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) from March 2009 to February 2015 and to predict the accidents up to 24 months later (February 2017). The analysis was carried out using R-3.4.2 statistical software package. A total of 5199 pedestrians, 9015 motorcyclists, and 28,906 car occupants' accidents were observed. The mean (SD) number of car occupant, motorcyclist and pedestrian accident injuries observed were 401.01 (SD 32.78), 123.70 (SD 30.18) and 71.19 (SD 17.92) per year, respectively. The best models for the pattern of car occupant, motorcyclist, and pedestrian injuries were the ARIMA (1, 0, 0), SARIMA (1, 0, 2) (1, 0, 0) 12 , and SARIMA (1, 1, 1) (0, 0, 1) 12 , respectively. The motorcyclist and pedestrian injuries showed a seasonal pattern and the peak was during summer (August). The minimum frequency for the motorcyclist and pedestrian injuries were observed during the late autumn and early winter (December and January). Our findings revealed that the observed motorcyclist and pedestrian injuries had a seasonal pattern that was explained by air temperature changes overtime. These findings call the need for close monitoring of the accidents during the high-risk periods in order to control and decrease the rate of the injuries.

Methodology, status and plans for development and assessment of the code ATHLET

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Teschendorff, V.; Austregesilo, H.; Lerchl, G.

1997-07-01

The thermal-hydraulic computer code ATHLET (Analysis of THermal-hydraulics of LEaks and Transients) is being developed by the Gesellschaft fuer Anlagen- und Reaktorsicherheit (GRS) for the analysis of anticipated and abnormal plant transients, small and intermediate leaks as well as large breaks in light water reactors. The aim of the code development is to cover the whole spectrum of design basis and beyond design basis accidents (without core degradation) for PWRs and BWRs with only one code. The main code features are: advanced thermal-hydraulics; modular code architecture; separation between physical models and numerical methods; pre- and post-processing tools; portability. The codemore » has features that are of special interest for applications to small leaks and transients with accident management, e.g. initialization by a steady-state calculation, full-range drift-flux model, dynamic mixture level tracking. The General Control Simulation Module of ATHLET is a flexible tool for the simulation of the balance-of-plant and control systems including the various operator actions in the course of accident sequences with AM measures. The code development is accompained by a systematic and comprehensive validation program. A large number of integral experiments and separate effect tests, including the major International Standard Problems, have been calculated by GRS and by independent organizations. The ATHLET validation matrix is a well balanced set of integral and separate effects tests derived from the CSNI proposal emphasizing, however, the German combined ECC injection system which was investigated in the UPTF, PKL and LOBI test facilities.« less

Demonstration of fully coupled simplified extended station black-out accident simulation with RELAP-7

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhao, Haihua; Zhang, Hongbin; Zou, Ling

2014-10-01

The RELAP-7 code is the next generation nuclear reactor system safety analysis code being developed at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL). The RELAP-7 code develop-ment effort started in October of 2011 and by the end of the second development year, a number of physical components with simplified two phase flow capability have been de-veloped to support the simplified boiling water reactor (BWR) extended station blackout (SBO) analyses. The demonstration case includes the major components for the primary system of a BWR, as well as the safety system components for the safety relief valve (SRV), the reactor core isolation cooling (RCIC)more » system, and the wet well. Three scenar-ios for the SBO simulations have been considered. Since RELAP-7 is not a severe acci-dent analysis code, the simulation stops when fuel clad temperature reaches damage point. Scenario I represents an extreme station blackout accident without any external cooling and cooling water injection. The system pressure is controlled by automatically releasing steam through SRVs. Scenario II includes the RCIC system but without SRV. The RCIC system is fully coupled with the reactor primary system and all the major components are dynamically simulated. The third scenario includes both the RCIC system and the SRV to provide a more realistic simulation. This paper will describe the major models and dis-cuss the results for the three scenarios. The RELAP-7 simulations for the three simplified SBO scenarios show the importance of dynamically simulating the SRVs, the RCIC sys-tem, and the wet well system to the reactor safety during extended SBO accidents.« less

Investigation of powered 2-wheeler accident involvement in urban arterials by considering real-time traffic and weather data.

PubMed

Theofilatos, Athanasios; Yannis, George

2017-04-03

Understanding the various factors that affect accident risk is of particular concern to decision makers and researchers. The incorporation of real-time traffic and weather data constitutes a fruitful approach when analyzing accident risk. However, the vast majority of relevant research has no specific focus on vulnerable road users such as powered 2-wheelers (PTWs). Moreover, studies using data from urban roads and arterials are scarce. This study aims to add to the current knowledge by considering real-time traffic and weather data from 2 major urban arterials in the city of Athens, Greece, in order to estimate the effect of traffic, weather, and other characteristics on PTW accident involvement. Because of the high number of candidate variables, a random forest model was applied to reveal the most important variables. Then, the potentially significant variables were used as input to a Bayesian logistic regression model in order to reveal the magnitude of their effect on PTW accident involvement. The results of the analysis suggest that PTWs are more likely to be involved in multivehicle accidents than in single-vehicle accidents. It was also indicated that increased traffic flow and variations in speed have a significant influence on PTW accident involvement. On the other hand, weather characteristics were found to have no effect. The findings of this study can contribute to the understanding of accident mechanisms of PTWs and reduce PTW accident risk in urban arterials.

14 CFR 420.59 - Launch site accident investigation plan.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Launch site accident investigation plan... Licensee § 420.59 Launch site accident investigation plan. (a) General. A licensee shall develop and implement a launch site accident investigation plan that contains the licensee's procedures for reporting...

14 CFR 420.59 - Launch site accident investigation plan.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Launch site accident investigation plan... Licensee § 420.59 Launch site accident investigation plan. (a) General. A licensee shall develop and implement a launch site accident investigation plan that contains the licensee's procedures for reporting...

The role of production and teamwork practices in construction safety: a cognitive model and an empirical case study.

PubMed

Mitropoulos, Panagiotis Takis; Cupido, Gerardo

2009-01-01

In construction, the challenge for researchers and practitioners is to develop work systems (production processes and teams) that can achieve high productivity and high safety at the same time. However, construction accident causation models ignore the role of work practices and teamwork. This study investigates the mechanisms by which production and teamwork practices affect the likelihood of accidents. The paper synthesizes a new model for construction safety based on the cognitive perspective (Fuller's Task-Demand-Capability Interface model, 2005) and then presents an exploratory case study. The case study investigates and compares the work practices of two residential framing crews: a 'High Reliability Crew' (HRC)--that is, a crew with exceptional productivity and safety over several years, and an average performing crew from the same company. The model explains how the production and teamwork practices generate the work situations that workers face (the task demands) and affect the workers ability to cope (capabilities). The case study indicates that the work practices of the HRC directly influence the task demands and match them with the applied capabilities. These practices were guided by the 'principle' of avoiding errors and rework and included work planning and preparation, work distribution, managing the production pressures, and quality and behavior monitoring. The Task Demand-Capability model links construction research to a cognitive model of accident causation and provides a new way to conceptualize safety as an emergent property of the production practices and teamwork processes. The empirical evidence indicates that the crews' work practices and team processes strongly affect the task demands, the applied capabilities, and the match between demands and capabilities. The proposed model and the exploratory case study will guide further discovery of work practices and teamwork processes that can increase both productivity and safety in construction operations. Such understanding will enable training of construction foremen and crews in these practices to systematically develop high reliability crews.

Effective environmental factors on geographical distribution of traffic accidents on pedestrians, downtown Tehran city

PubMed Central

Moradi, Ali; Soori, Hamid; Kavousi, Amir; Eshghabadi, Farshid; Nematollahi, Shahrzad; Zeini, Salahdien

2017-01-01

Introduction: In most countries, occurrence of traffic causalities is high in pedestrians. The aim of this study is to geographically analyze the traffic casualties in pedestrians in downtown Tehran city. Methods: The study population consisted of traffic injury accidents in pedestrians occurred during 2015 in Tehran city. Data were extracted from offices of traffic police and municipality. For analysis of environmental factors and site of accidents, ordinary least square regression models and geographically weighted regression were used. Fitness and performance of models were checked using the Akaike information criteria, Bayesian information criteria, deviance, and adjusted R2. Results: Totally, 514 accidents were included in this study. Of them, site of accidents was arterial streets in 370 (71.9%) cases, collector streets in 133 cases (25.2%), and highways in 11 cases (2.1%). Geographical units of traffic accidents in pedestrians had statistically significant relationship with a number of bus stations, number of crossroads, and recreational areas. Conclusion: Distribution of injury traffic accidents in pedestrians is different in downtown Tehran city. Neighborhoods close to markets are considered as most dangerous neighborhoods for injury traffic accidents. Different environmental factors are involved in determining the distribution of these accidents. The health of pedestrians in Tehran city can be improved by proper traffic management, control of environmental factors, and educational programs. PMID:28660163

Status Report on Ex-Vessel Coolability and Water Management

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Farmer, M. T.; Robb, K. R.

Specific to BWR plants, current accident management guidance calls for flooding the drywell to a level of approximately 1.2 m (4 feet) above the drywell floor once vessel breach has been determined. While this action can help to submerge ex-vessel core debris, it can also result in flooding the wetwell and thereby rendering the wetwell vent path unavailable. An alternate strategy is being developed in the industry guidance for responding to the severe accident capable vent Order, EA-13-109. The alternate strategy being proposed would throttle the flooding rate to achieve a stable wetwell water level while preserving the wetwell ventmore » path. The overall objective of this work is to upgrade existing analytical tools (i.e. MELTSPREAD and CORQUENCH - which have been used as part of the DOE-sponsored Fukushima accident analyses) in order to provide flexible, analytically capable, and validated models to support the development of water throttling strategies for BWRs that are aimed at keeping ex-vessel core debris covered with water while preserving the wetwell vent path.« less

Fuzzy-probabilistic model for risk assessment of radioactive material railway transportation.

PubMed

Avramenko, M; Bolyatko, V; Kosterev, V

2005-01-01

Transportation of radioactive materials is obviously accompanied by a certain risk. A model for risk assessment of emergency situations and terrorist attacks may be useful for choosing possible routes and for comparing the various defence strategies. In particular, risk assessment is crucial for safe transportation of excess weapons-grade plutonium arising from the removal of plutonium from military employment. A fuzzy-probabilistic model for risk assessment of railway transportation has been developed taking into account the different natures of risk-affecting parameters (probabilistic and not probabilistic but fuzzy). Fuzzy set theory methods as well as standard methods of probability theory have been used for quantitative risk assessment. Information-preserving transformations are applied to realise the correct aggregation of probabilistic and fuzzy parameters. Estimations have also been made of the inhalation doses resulting from possible accidents during plutonium transportation. The obtained data show the scale of possible consequences that may arise from plutonium transportation accidents.

Probabilistic assessment of roadway departure risk in a curve

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rey, G.; Clair, D.; Fogli, M.; Bernardin, F.

2011-10-01

Roadway departure while cornering constitutes a major part of car accidents and casualties in France. Even though drastic policy about overspeeding contributes to reduce accidents, there obviously exist other factors. This article presents the construction of a probabilistic strategy for the roadway departure risk assessment. A specific vehicle dynamic model is developed in which some parameters are modelled by random variables. These parameters are deduced from a sensitivity analysis to ensure an efficient representation of the inherent uncertainties of the system. Then, structural reliability methods are employed to assess the roadway departure risk in function of the initial conditions measured at the entrance of the curve. This study is conducted within the French national road safety project SARI that aims to implement a warning systems alerting the driver in case of dangerous situation.

Methods Developed by the Tools for Engine Diagnostics Task to Monitor and Predict Rotor Damage in Real Time

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baaklini, George Y.; Smith, Kevin; Raulerson, David; Gyekenyesi, Andrew L.; Sawicki, Jerzy T.; Brasche, Lisa

2003-01-01

Tools for Engine Diagnostics is a major task in the Propulsion System Health Management area of the Single Aircraft Accident Prevention project under NASA s Aviation Safety Program. The major goal of the Aviation Safety Program is to reduce fatal aircraft accidents by 80 percent within 10 years and by 90 percent within 25 years. The goal of the Propulsion System Health Management area is to eliminate propulsion system malfunctions as a primary or contributing factor to the cause of aircraft accidents. The purpose of Tools for Engine Diagnostics, a 2-yr-old task, is to establish and improve tools for engine diagnostics and prognostics that measure the deformation and damage of rotating engine components at the ground level and that perform intermittent or continuous monitoring on the engine wing. In this work, nondestructive-evaluation- (NDE-) based technology is combined with model-dependent disk spin experimental simulation systems, like finite element modeling (FEM) and modal norms, to monitor and predict rotor damage in real time. Fracture mechanics time-dependent fatigue crack growth and damage-mechanics-based life estimation are being developed, and their potential use investigated. In addition, wireless eddy current and advanced acoustics are being developed for on-wing and just-in-time NDE engine inspection to provide deeper access and higher sensitivity to extend on-wing capabilities and improve inspection readiness. In the long run, these methods could establish a base for prognostic sensing while an engine is running, without any overt actions, like inspections. This damage-detection strategy includes experimentally acquired vibration-, eddy-current- and capacitance-based displacement measurements and analytically computed FEM-, modal norms-, and conventional rotordynamics-based models of well-defined damages and critical mass imbalances in rotating disks and rotors.

Development of a methodology to assess man-made risks in Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borst, D.; Jung, D.; Murshed, S. M.; Werner, U.

2006-09-01

Risk is a concept used to describe future potential outcomes of certain actions or events. Within the project "CEDIM - Risk Map Germany - Man-made Hazards" it is intended to develop methods for assessing and mapping the risk due to different human-induced hazards. This is a task that has not been successfully performed for Germany so far. Concepts of catastrophe modelling are employed including the spatial modelling of hazard, the compilation of different kinds of exposed elements, the estimation of their vulnerability and the direct loss potential in terms of human life and health. The paper is divided in two sections: First, an analytic framework for assessing the broad spectrum of human-induced risks is introduced. This approach is then applied for three important types of human-induced hazards that are representative for a whole class of hazards: Accidents due to nuclear power plants (NPP) or air traffic, and terrorism. For the analysis of accidents, risk is measured with respect to getting injured or dying when living in certain buffer zones around hazard locations. NPP hazard expert knowledge is used and supplemented with observations on aging effects leading to a proprietary index value for the risk. Air traffic risk is modelled as an area related phenomenon based on available accident statistics leading to an expected value of risk. Terrorism risk is assessed by the attraction certain elements (like embassies in the case of conventional threats) display in the eye of potential aggressors. For non-conventional targets like football games, a detailed approach measuring their susceptibility to different kinds of attacks within predefined scenarios was developed; this also allows a ranking of attack modes.

MELCOR model for an experimental 17x17 spent fuel PWR assembly.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cardoni, Jeffrey

2010-11-01

A MELCOR model has been developed to simulate a pressurized water reactor (PWR) 17 x 17 assembly in a spent fuel pool rack cell undergoing severe accident conditions. To the extent possible, the MELCOR model reflects the actual geometry, materials, and masses present in the experimental arrangement for the Sandia Fuel Project (SFP). The report presents an overview of the SFP experimental arrangement, the MELCOR model specifications, demonstration calculation results, and the input model listing.

Analysis and testing of Koornstra-type induced exposure models

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1985-10-01

Induced exposure models postulate a structure for accident data which permits the : estimation of two factors: exposure and proneness. Since information on exposure : is needed in order to assess the accident risk of different driver, vehicle, and : ...

Comprehensive analysis of single- and multi-vehicle large truck at-fault crashes on rural and urban roadways in Alabama.

PubMed

Islam, Samantha; Jones, Steven L; Dye, Daniel

2014-06-01

The research described in this paper analyzed injury severities at a disaggregate level for single-vehicle (SV) and multi-vehicle (MV) large truck at-fault accidents for rural and urban locations in Alabama. Given the occurrence of a crash, four separate random parameter logit models of injury severity (with possible outcomes of major, minor, and possible or no injury) were estimated. The models identified different sets of factors that can lead to effective policy decisions aimed at reducing large truck-at-fault accidents for respective locations. The results of the study clearly indicated that there are differences between the influences of a variety of variables on the injury severities resulting from urban vs. rural SV and MV large truck at-fault accidents. The results showed that some variables were significant only in one type of accident model (SV or MV) but not in the other accident model. Again, some variables were found to be significant in one location (rural or urban) but not in other locations. The study also identified important factors that significantly impact the injury severity resulting from SV and MV large truck at-fault accidents in urban and rural locations based on the estimated values of average direct pseudo-elasticity. A careful study of the results of this study will help policy makers and transportation agencies identify location specific recommendations to increase safety awareness related to large truck involved accidents and to improve overall highway safety. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

29 CFR 1960.29 - Accident investigation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... accident shall be left untouched until inspectors have an opportunity to examine it. (c) Any information or evidence uncovered during accident investigations which would be of benefit in developing a new OSHA...

29 CFR 1960.29 - Accident investigation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... accident shall be left untouched until inspectors have an opportunity to examine it. (c) Any information or evidence uncovered during accident investigations which would be of benefit in developing a new OSHA...

Visualization of Traffic Accidents

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Jie; Shen, Yuzhong; Khattak, Asad

2010-01-01

Traffic accidents have tremendous impact on society. Annually approximately 6.4 million vehicle accidents are reported by police in the US and nearly half of them result in catastrophic injuries. Visualizations of traffic accidents using geographic information systems (GIS) greatly facilitate handling and analysis of traffic accidents in many aspects. Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI), Inc. is the world leader in GIS research and development. ArcGIS, a software package developed by ESRI, has the capabilities to display events associated with a road network, such as accident locations, and pavement quality. But when event locations related to a road network are processed, the existing algorithm used by ArcGIS does not utilize all the information related to the routes of the road network and produces erroneous visualization results of event locations. This software bug causes serious problems for applications in which accurate location information is critical for emergency responses, such as traffic accidents. This paper aims to address this problem and proposes an improved method that utilizes all relevant information of traffic accidents, namely, route number, direction, and mile post, and extracts correct event locations for accurate traffic accident visualization and analysis. The proposed method generates a new shape file for traffic accidents and displays them on top of the existing road network in ArcGIS. Visualization of traffic accidents along Hampton Roads Bridge Tunnel is included to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Defining a common set of indicators to monitor road accidents in the European Union.

PubMed

Farchi, Sara; Molino, Nunzio; Giorgi Rossi, Paolo; Borgia, Piero; Krzyzanowski, Michael; Dalbokova, Dafina; Kim, Rokho

2006-07-11

currently road accidents are mostly monitored through mortality and injury rates. This paper reports the methodology and the results of a project set forth by the European Union (EU) and coordinated by the WHO aimed at identifying and evaluating a core set of indicators to monitor the causal chain of road accident health effects. The project is part of the ECOEHIS (Development of Environment and Health Indicators for European Union Countries). a group of experts (WG), identified 14 indicators after a review of the information collected at the EU level, each of them representing a specific aspect of the DPSEEA (Driving, Pressure, State, Exposure, Effect, Action) model applied and adapted to the road accidents. Each indicator was scored according to a list of 16 criteria chosen by the WG. Those found to have a high score were analysed to determine if they were compatible with EU legislation and then tested in the feasibility study. 11 of the 14 indicators found to be relevant and compatible with the criteria of selection were proposed for the feasibility study. Mortality, injury, road accident rate, age of vehicle fleet, and distance travelled are the indicators recommended for immediate implementation. after overcoming the limitations that emerged (absence of a common definition of death by road accident and injury severity, underestimation of injuries, differences in information quality) this core set of indicators will allow Member States to carry out effective internal/external comparisons over time.

Defining a common set of indicators to monitor road accidents in the European Union

PubMed Central

Farchi, Sara; Molino, Nunzio; Giorgi Rossi, Paolo; Borgia, Piero; Krzyzanowski, Michael; Dalbokova, Dafina; Kim, Rokho

2006-01-01

Background currently road accidents are mostly monitored through mortality and injury rates. This paper reports the methodology and the results of a project set forth by the European Union (EU) and coordinated by the WHO aimed at identifying and evaluating a core set of indicators to monitor the causal chain of road accident health effects. The project is part of the ECOEHIS (Development of Environment and Health Indicators for European Union Countries). Methods a group of experts (WG), identified 14 indicators after a review of the information collected at the EU level, each of them representing a specific aspect of the DPSEEA (Driving, Pressure, State, Exposure, Effect, Action) model applied and adapted to the road accidents. Each indicator was scored according to a list of 16 criteria chosen by the WG. Those found to have a high score were analysed to determine if they were compatible with EU legislation and then tested in the feasibility study. Results 11 of the 14 indicators found to be relevant and compatible with the criteria of selection were proposed for the feasibility study. Mortality, injury, road accident rate, age of vehicle fleet, and distance travelled are the indicators recommended for immediate implementation. Conclusion after overcoming the limitations that emerged (absence of a common definition of death by road accident and injury severity, underestimation of injuries, differences in information quality) this core set of indicators will allow Member States to carry out effective internal/external comparisons over time. PMID:16834780

[Reconstruction of Vehicle-human Crash Accident and Injury Analysis Based on 3D Laser Scanning, Multi-rigid-body Reconstruction and Optimized Genetic Algorithm].

PubMed

Sun, J; Wang, T; Li, Z D; Shao, Y; Zhang, Z Y; Feng, H; Zou, D H; Chen, Y J

2017-12-01

To reconstruct a vehicle-bicycle-cyclist crash accident and analyse the injuries using 3D laser scanning technology, multi-rigid-body dynamics and optimized genetic algorithm, and to provide biomechanical basis for the forensic identification of death cause. The vehicle was measured by 3D laser scanning technology. The multi-rigid-body models of cyclist, bicycle and vehicle were developed based on the measurements. The value range of optimal variables was set. A multi-objective genetic algorithm and the nondominated sorting genetic algorithm were used to find the optimal solutions, which were compared to the record of the surveillance video around the accident scene. The reconstruction result of laser scanning on vehicle was satisfactory. In the optimal solutions found by optimization method of genetic algorithm, the dynamical behaviours of dummy, bicycle and vehicle corresponded to that recorded by the surveillance video. The injury parameters of dummy were consistent with the situation and position of the real injuries on the cyclist in accident. The motion status before accident, damage process by crash and mechanical analysis on the injury of the victim can be reconstructed using 3D laser scanning technology, multi-rigid-body dynamics and optimized genetic algorithm, which have application value in the identification of injury manner and analysis of death cause in traffic accidents. Copyright© by the Editorial Department of Journal of Forensic Medicine

Health effects model for nuclear power plant accident consequence analysis. Part I. Introduction, integration, and summary. Part II. Scientific basis for health effects models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Evans, J.S.; Moeller, D.W.; Cooper, D.W.

1985-07-01

Analysis of the radiological health effects of nuclear power plant accidents requires models for predicting early health effects, cancers and benign thyroid nodules, and genetic effects. Since the publication of the Reactor Safety Study, additional information on radiological health effects has become available. This report summarizes the efforts of a program designed to provide revised health effects models for nuclear power plant accident consequence modeling. The new models for early effects address four causes of mortality and nine categories of morbidity. The models for early effects are based upon two parameter Weibull functions. They permit evaluation of the influence ofmore » dose protraction and address the issue of variation in radiosensitivity among the population. The piecewise-linear dose-response models used in the Reactor Safety Study to predict cancers and thyroid nodules have been replaced by linear and linear-quadratic models. The new models reflect the most recently reported results of the follow-up of the survivors of the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki and permit analysis of both morbidity and mortality. The new models for genetic effects allow prediction of genetic risks in each of the first five generations after an accident and include information on the relative severity of various classes of genetic effects. The uncertainty in modeloling radiological health risks is addressed by providing central, upper, and lower estimates of risks. An approach is outlined for summarizing the health consequences of nuclear power plant accidents. 298 refs., 9 figs., 49 tabs.« less

Scaling and design analyses of a scaled-down, high-temperature test facility for experimental investigation of the initial stages of a VHTR air-ingress accident

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Arcilesi, David J.; Ham, Tae Kyu; Kim, In Hun

2015-07-01

A critical event in the safety analysis of the very high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (VHTR) is an air-ingress accident. This accident is initiated, in its worst case scenario, by a double-ended guillotine break of the coaxial cross vessel, which leads to a rapid reactor vessel depressurization. In a VHTR, the reactor vessel is located within a reactor cavity that is filled with air during normal operating conditions. Following the vessel depressurization, the dominant mode of ingress of an air–helium mixture into the reactor vessel will either be molecular diffusion or density-driven stratified flow. The mode of ingress is hypothesized to dependmore » largely on the break conditions of the cross vessel. Since the time scales of these two ingress phenomena differ by orders of magnitude, it is imperative to understand under which conditions each of these mechanisms will dominate in the air ingress process. Computer models have been developed to analyze this type of accident scenario. There are, however, limited experimental data available to understand the phenomenology of the air-ingress accident and to validate these models. Therefore, there is a need to design and construct a scaled-down experimental test facility to simulate the air-ingress accident scenarios and to collect experimental data. The current paper focuses on the analyses performed for the design and operation of a 1/8th geometric scale (by height and diameter), high-temperature test facility. A geometric scaling analysis for the VHTR, a time scale analysis of the air-ingress phenomenon, a transient depressurization analysis of the reactor vessel, a hydraulic similarity analysis of the test facility, a heat transfer characterization of the hot plenum, a power scaling analysis for the reactor system, and a design analysis of the containment vessel are discussed.« less

Use of multiscale zirconium alloy deformation models in nuclear fuel behavior analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Montgomery, Robert; Tomé, Carlos; Liu, Wenfeng

Accurate prediction of cladding mechanical behavior is a key aspect of modeling nuclear fuel behavior, especially for conditions of pellet-cladding interaction (PCI), reactivity-initiated accidents (RIA), and loss of coolant accidents (LOCA). Current approaches to fuel performance modeling rely on empirical models for cladding creep, growth and plastic deformation, which are limited to the materials and conditions for which the models were developed. CASL has endeavored to improve upon this approach by incorporating a microstructurally-based, atomistically-informed, zirconium alloy mechanical deformation analysis capability into the BISON-CASL engineering scale fuel performance code. Specifically, the viscoplastic self-consistent (VPSC) polycrystal plasticity modeling approach, developed bymore » Lebensohn and Tome´ [2], has been coupled with BISON-CASL to represent the mechanistic material processes controlling the deformation behavior of the cladding. A critical component of VPSC is the representation of the crystallographic orientation of the grains within the matrix material and the ability to account for the role of texture on deformation. The multiscale modeling of cladding deformation mechanisms allowed by VPSC far exceed the functionality of typical semi-empirical constitutive models employed in nuclear fuel behavior codes to model irradiation growth and creep, thermal creep, or plasticity. This paper describes the implementation of an interface between VPSC and BISON-CASL and provides initial results utilizing the coupled functionality.« less

The pattern of childhood accidents in south-western Nigeria

PubMed Central

Sinnette, Calvin H.

1969-01-01

All childhood accidents treated at the University College Hospital, Ibadan, Nigeria, during a 4-year period are analysed. The pattern of childhood injuries in the part of Nigeria served by this hospital does not differ significantly from the pattern reported in studies from other parts of the world. The chain of events leading to an accident appears in large measure to be directly influenced by the mode of life in the community. This in turn is related to the prevailing level of technological development. There is an obvious need for more exhaustive studies of childhood accidents in developing countries. However, these countries need not wait for this information to become available before initiating accident-prevention programmes. PMID:5309535

A Model for Risk Analysis of Oil Tankers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montewka, Jakub; Krata, Przemysław; Goerland, Floris; Kujala, Pentti

2010-01-01

The paper presents a model for risk analysis regarding marine traffic, with the emphasis on two types of the most common marine accidents which are: collision and grounding. The focus is on oil tankers as these pose the highest environmental risk. A case study in selected areas of Gulf of Finland in ice free conditions is presented. The model utilizes a well-founded formula for risk calculation, which combines the probability of an unwanted event with its consequences. Thus the model is regarded a block type model, consisting of blocks for the probability of collision and grounding estimation respectively as well as blocks for consequences of an accident modelling. Probability of vessel colliding is assessed by means of a Minimum Distance To Collision (MDTC) based model. The model defines in a novel way the collision zone, using mathematical ship motion model and recognizes traffic flow as a non homogeneous process. The presented calculations address waterways crossing between Helsinki and Tallinn, where dense cross traffic during certain hours is observed. For assessment of a grounding probability, a new approach is proposed, which utilizes a newly developed model, where spatial interactions between objects in different locations are recognized. A ship at a seaway and navigational obstructions may be perceived as interacting objects and their repulsion may be modelled by a sort of deterministic formulation. Risk due to tankers running aground addresses an approach fairway to an oil terminal in Sköldvik, near Helsinki. The consequences of an accident are expressed in monetary terms, and concern costs of an oil spill, based on statistics of compensations claimed from the International Oil Pollution Compensation Funds (IOPC Funds) by parties involved.

Model predictions of wind and turbulence profiles associated with an ensemble of aircraft accidents

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Williamson, G. G.; Lewellen, W. S.; Teske, M. E.

1977-01-01

The feasibility of predicting conditions under which wind/turbulence environments hazardous to aviation operations exist is studied by examining a number of different accidents in detail. A model of turbulent flow in the atmospheric boundary layer is used to reconstruct wind and turbulence profiles which may have existed at low altitudes at the time of the accidents. The predictions are consistent with available flight recorder data, but neither the input boundary conditions nor the flight recorder observations are sufficiently precise for these studies to be interpreted as verification tests of the model predictions.

Study on the Application of the Kent Index Method on the Risk Assessment of Disastrous Accidents in Subway Engineering

PubMed Central

Lu, Hao; Wang, Mingyang; Yang, Baohuai; Rong, Xiaoli

2013-01-01

With the development of subway engineering, according to uncertain factors and serious accidents involved in the construction of subways, implementing risk assessment is necessary and may bring a number of benefits for construction safety. The Kent index method extensively used in pipeline construction is improved to make risk assessment much more practical for the risk assessment of disastrous accidents in subway engineering. In the improved method, the indexes are divided into four categories, namely, basic, design, construction, and consequence indexes. In this study, a risk assessment model containing four kinds of indexes is provided. Three kinds of risk occurrence modes are listed. The probability index model which considers the relativity of the indexes is established according to the risk occurrence modes. The model provides the risk assessment process through the fault tree method and has been applied in the risk assessment of Nanjing subway's river-crossing tunnel construction. Based on the assessment results, the builders were informed of what risks should be noticed and what they should do to avoid the risks. The need for further research is discussed. Overall, this method may provide a tool for the builders, and improve the safety of the construction. PMID:23710136

Modeling of local steam condensation on walls in presence of non-condensable gases. Application to a loca calculation in reactor containment using the multidimensional geyser/tonus code

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Benet, L.V.; Caroli, C.; Cornet, P.

1995-09-01

This paper reports part of a study of possible severe pressurized water reactor (PWR) accidents. The need for containment modeling, and in particular for a hydrogen risk study, was reinforced in France after 1990, with the requirement that severe accidents must be taken into account in the design of future plants. This new need of assessing the transient local hydrogen concentration led to the development, in the Mechanical Engineering and Technology Department of the French Atomic Energy Commission (CEA/DMT), of the multidimensional code GEYSER/TONUS for containment analysis. A detailed example of the use of this code is presented. The mixturemore » consisted of noncondensable gases (air or air plus hydrogen) and water vapor and liquid water. This is described by a compressible homogeneous two-phase flow model and wall condensation is based on the Chilton-Colburn formula and the analogy between heat and mass transfer. Results are given for a transient two-dimensional axially-symmetric computation for the first hour of a simplified accident sequence. In this there was an initial injection of a large amount of water vapor followed by a smaller amount and by hydrogen injection.« less

Structural equation model to investigate the dimensions influencing safety culture improvement in construction sector: A case in Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Machfudiyanto, Rossy Armyn; Latief, Yusuf; Yogiswara, Yoko; Setiawan, R. Mahendra Fitra

2017-06-01

In facing the ASEAN Economic Community, the level of prevailing working accidents becomes one of the competitiveness factors among the companies. A construction industry is one of the industries prone to high level of accidents. Improving the safety record will not be completely effective unless the occupational safety and healthy culture is enhanced. The aim of this research was to develop a model and to conduct empirical investigation on the relationships among the dimensions of construction occupational safety culture. This research used the structural equation model as a means to examine the hypothesis of positive relationships between dimensions and objectives. The method used in this research was questionnaire survey which was distributed to the respondents from construction companies in a state-owned enterprise in Indonesia. Moreover, there were dimensions of occupational safety culture that was established, such as leadership, behavior, value, strategy, policy, process, employee, safety cost, and contract system. The results of this study indicated that all dimensions were significant and inter-related in forming the safety culture. The result of R2 yielded the safety performance was 54%, which means it was in low category and evaluation of policies on construction companies was required in addressing the issue of working accidents.

Single vehicle accident study

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1977-11-01

The general objectives of this study were to determine the nature and causes of single vehicle accidents, describe their resulting consequences, and develop recommendations to effect a reduction in the frequency and severity of these accidents. Analy...

Investigation of life changes as a contributing factor in aircraft accidents: a prospectus.

PubMed

Haakonson, N H

1980-09-01

The author presents a personal perspective on attempts to reduce aircraft accidents resulting from human failure in the cockpit. The premise is that accidents result from an imbalance between performance ability and performance demand. Advances in decreasing pilot-induced accidents must come from methods that will prevent the stresses that diminish performance ability. It is suggested that the investigation of life change as a contributing factor in aircraft accidents will be fruitful because of the tremendous amount of research that has already been done in this field. A review of previous work leads to three recommendations: the Recent Life Change Questionnaire (RLCQ) should be developed as a tool for management and individual aircrew; a character assurance program should be adopted; and a technique to remove accident-prone individuals should be developed.

Fatality risk assessment and modeling of drivers responsibility for causing traffic accidents in Dubai.

PubMed

Abdalla, Ibrahim M

2002-01-01

This paper examines crash and safety statistics from the Emirate of Dubai in an attempt to identify factors responsible for making this population at greater risk of crashes compared to other countries. In developing countries such as the United Arab Emirates (U.A.E.), motor-vehicle-related mortalities frequently exceed those of the industrialized nations of North America and Europe. Fatality and injury data used in the analysis mainly come from Dubai Emirate police reports and from other relevant international sources. Groups of the population are identified according to associated risk and exposure factors. Influence and strength of the most common risk factors are quantified using relative risk, the Lorenz curve, and the Gini index. Further analysis employed logit modeling, and possible predictors available in Dubai police reports, to estimate probability and odds ratios associated with drivers that are deemed responsible for causing traffic accidents. Traffic fatality risk was found to be higher in Dubai, compared to some developed nations, and to vary considerably between different classes of road users and groups of the resident population. The likelihood of a driver causing an accident is considerably higher for those driving goods vehicles, but it is also associated with other factors. Results provide epidemiological inferences about traffic mortality and morbidity, and suggest priorities and appropriate measures for intervention, targeting resident population.

Commuter Train Passenger Safety Model Using Positive Behavior Approach: The Case Study in Suburban Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suryanto, D. A.; Adisasmita, S. A.; Hamid, S.; Hustim, M.

2018-04-01

Currently, Train passanger safety measures are more predominantly measurable using negative dimensions in user mode behavior, such as accident rate, accident intensity and accident impact. This condition suggests that safety improvements aim only to reduce accidents. Therefore, this study aims to measure the safety level of light train transit modes (KRL) through the dimensions of traveling safety on commuters based on positive safety indicators with severel condition departure times and returns for work purposes and long trip rates above KRL. The primary survey were used in data collection methods. Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) were used in data analysis. The results show that there are different models of the safety level of departure and return journey. The highest difference is in the security dimension which is the internal variable of KRL users.

Comparisons of Traffic Collisions between Expressways and Rural Roads in Truck Drivers.

PubMed

Lee, Sangbok; Jeong, Byung Yong

2016-03-01

Truck driving is known as one of the occupations with the highest accident rate. This study investigates the characteristics of traffic collisions according to road types (expressway and rural road). Classifying 267 accidents into expressway and rural road, we analyzed them based on driver characteristics (age, working experience, size of employment), time characteristics (day of accident, time, weather), and accident characteristics (accident causes, accident locations, accident types, driving conditions). When we compared the accidents by road conditions, no differences were found between the driver characteristics. However, from the accident characteristics, the injured person distributions were different by the road conditions. In particular, driving while drowsy is shown to be highly related with the accident characteristics. This study can be used as a guideline and a base line to develop a plan of action to prevent traffic accidents. It can also help to prepare formal regulations about a truck driver's vehicle maintenance and driving attitude for a precaution on road accidents.

Comparisons of Traffic Collisions between Expressways and Rural Roads in Truck Drivers

PubMed Central

Lee, Sangbok; Jeong, Byung Yong

2015-01-01

Background Truck driving is known as one of the occupations with the highest accident rate. This study investigates the characteristics of traffic collisions according to road types (expressway and rural road). Methods Classifying 267 accidents into expressway and rural road, we analyzed them based on driver characteristics (age, working experience, size of employment), time characteristics (day of accident, time, weather), and accident characteristics (accident causes, accident locations, accident types, driving conditions). Results When we compared the accidents by road conditions, no differences were found between the driver characteristics. However, from the accident characteristics, the injured person distributions were different by the road conditions. In particular, driving while drowsy is shown to be highly related with the accident characteristics. Conclusion This study can be used as a guideline and a base line to develop a plan of action to prevent traffic accidents. It can also help to prepare formal regulations about a truck driver's vehicle maintenance and driving attitude for a precaution on road accidents. PMID:27014489

A quarter of a century of the DBQ: some supplementary notes on its validity with regard to accidents.

PubMed

de Winter, Joost C F; Dodou, Dimitra; Stanton, Neville A

2015-01-01

This article synthesises the latest information on the relationship between the Driver Behaviour Questionnaire (DBQ) and accidents. We show by means of computer simulation that correlations with accidents are necessarily small because accidents are rare events. An updated meta-analysis on the zero-order correlations between the DBQ and self-reported accidents yielded an overall r of .13 (fixed-effect and random-effects models) for violations (57,480 participants; 67 samples) and .09 (fixed-effect and random-effects models) for errors (66,028 participants; 56 samples). An analysis of a previously published DBQ dataset (975 participants) showed that by aggregating across four measurement occasions, the correlation coefficient with self-reported accidents increased from .14 to .24 for violations and from .11 to .19 for errors. Our meta-analysis also showed that DBQ violations (r = .24; 6353 participants; 20 samples) but not DBQ errors (r = - .08; 1086 participants; 16 samples) correlated with recorded vehicle speed. Practitioner Summary: The DBQ is probably the most widely used self-report questionnaire in driver behaviour research. This study shows that DBQ violations and errors correlate moderately with self-reported traffic accidents.

Development of a bespoke human factors taxonomy for gliding accident analysis and its revelations about highly inexperienced UK glider pilots.

PubMed

Jarvis, Steve; Harris, Don

2009-08-01

Low-hours solo glider pilots have a high risk of accidents compared to more experienced pilots. Numerous taxonomies for causal accident analysis have been produced for powered aviation but none of these is suitable for gliding, so a new taxonomy was required. A human factors taxonomy specifically for glider operations was developed and used to analyse all UK gliding accidents from 2002 to 2006 for their overall causes as well as factors specific to low hours pilots. Fifty-nine categories of pilot-related accident causation emerged, which were formed into progressively larger categories until four overall human factors groups were arrived at: 'judgement'; 'handling'; 'strategy'; 'attention'. 'Handling' accounted for a significantly higher proportion of injuries than other categories. Inexperienced pilots had considerably more accidents in all categories except 'strategy'. Approach control (path judgement, airbrake and speed handling) as well as landing flare misjudgement were chiefly responsible for the high accident rate in early solo glider pilots.

[Occupational accidents in Barcelona (Spain), from 1992 to 1993].

PubMed

Sampaio, R F; Martin, M; Artazcoz, L; Moncada, S

1998-08-01

The statistics related to labor accidents as with any other notification system ought to be the basis for programs and policies with a view to the adoption of preventive measures. In order to establish preventive norms, however, the health system needs data from researchers focussing on the dynamics of and the pitfalls revealed by specific events. Within this context the main objective of this study is to proceed with an in-depth analysis of the labor accidents verified in Barcelona (Spain) using for this purpose a descriptive statistics model to test variables such as type of accident, economic sector, economic enterprise and type of labor contract. The data source utilized was the notification system for labor accidents with grave consequences such as death of the victim registered in Barcelona during the period 1992-1993. Labor accidents registered for male workers numbered 848. A log-linear model was applied to this data base. The results show a positive association between traumatic accidents with the construction, traffic and services sectors. A positive association was also found between traumatic accidents and the size of the company concerved the small ones being the worse type in terms of worker's injuries. Regarding the nontraumatic accidents, the study showed a positive correlation between large-sized enterprises and type of temporary worker and the civil construction sector as compared to workers with long term work contracts within industry and services. There was some evidence, also, of a positive association between small and medium sized companies and temporary work and the occurrence of work accidents.

A Human Factors Analysis of USAF Remotely Piloted Aircraft Mishaps

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-06-01

conditions or unsafe acts, where their respective removal would prevent a chain reaction from propagating, thus preventing the accident . This model...Force Col. Anthony Tvaryanas stated that “If you 19 really wanted to make a dent in preventing RPA accidents , the DoD needs to look at how they do...REFERENCES Greenwood, M. & Woods, H.M. (1919). The incidence of industrial accidents upon individuals with special reference to multiple accidents . (British

Scaling Equations for Ballistic Modeling of Solid Rocket Motor Case Breach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McMillin, Joshua E.

2006-01-01

This paper explores the development of a series of scaling equations that can take a known nominal motor performance and scale it for small and growing case failures. This model was developed for the Malfunction-Turn Study as part of Return to Flight activities for the Space Shuttle program. To verify the model, data from the Challenger accident (STS- 51L) were used. The model is able to predict the motor performance beyond the last recorded Challenger data and show how the failed right hand booster would have performed if the vehicle had remained intact.

Impact of economic incentives on costs and benefits of occupational health and safety.

PubMed

Pawłowska, Z; Rzepecki, J

2000-01-01

The most common type of economic incentive used in the field of health and safety is experience rating of insurance premiums. The impact of this incentive on occupational health and safety (OHS) costs in the company was analysed by comparing insurance costs with other OHS costs associated with inadequate working conditions, such as accident costs borne by a company. Accident costs were estimated on the basis of research carried out in 10 companies. Insurance costs and their adjustments according to the health and safety level in a company were calculated according to an experience rating model developed in the Central Institute for Labour Protection.

Use of multiscale zirconium alloy deformation models in nuclear fuel behavior analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montgomery, Robert; Tomé, Carlos; Liu, Wenfeng; Alankar, Alankar; Subramanian, Gopinath; Stanek, Christopher

2017-01-01

Accurate prediction of cladding mechanical behavior is a key aspect of modeling nuclear fuel behavior, especially for conditions of pellet-cladding interaction (PCI), reactivity-initiated accidents (RIA), and loss of coolant accidents (LOCA). Current approaches to fuel performance modeling rely on empirical constitutive models for cladding creep, growth and plastic deformation, which are limited to the materials and conditions for which the models were developed. To improve upon this approach, a microstructurally-based zirconium alloy mechanical deformation analysis capability is being developed within the United States Department of Energy Consortium for Advanced Simulation of Light Water Reactors (CASL). Specifically, the viscoplastic self-consistent (VPSC) polycrystal plasticity modeling approach, developed by Lebensohn and Tomé [1], has been coupled with the BISON engineering scale fuel performance code to represent the mechanistic material processes controlling the deformation behavior of light water reactor (LWR) cladding. A critical component of VPSC is the representation of the crystallographic nature (defect and dislocation movement) and orientation of the grains within the matrix material and the ability to account for the role of texture on deformation. A future goal is for VPSC to obtain information on reaction rate kinetics from atomistic calculations to inform the defect and dislocation behavior models described in VPSC. The multiscale modeling of cladding deformation mechanisms allowed by VPSC far exceed the functionality of typical semi-empirical constitutive models employed in nuclear fuel behavior codes to model irradiation growth and creep, thermal creep, or plasticity. This paper describes the implementation of an interface between VPSC and BISON and provides initial results utilizing the coupled functionality.

A systems modeling methodology for evaluation of vehicle aggressivity in the automotive accident environment

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2001-03-05

A systems modeling approach is presented for assessment of harm in the automotive accident environment. The methodology is presented in general form and then applied to evaluate vehicle aggressivity in frontal crashes. The methodology consists of par...

Intelligent Modeling for Nuclear Power Plant Accident Management

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Darling, Michael Christropher; Luger, George F.; Jones, Thomas B.

This study explores the viability of using counterfactual reasoning for impact analyses when understanding and responding to “beyond-design-basis” nuclear power plant accidents. Currently, when a severe nuclear power plant accident occurs, plant operators rely on Severe Accident Management Guidelines. However, the current guidelines are limited in scope and depth: for certain types of accidents, plant operators would have to work to mitigate the damage with limited experience and guidance for the particular situation. We aim to fill the need for comprehensive accident support by using a dynamic Bayesian network to aid in the diagnosis of a nuclear reactor’s state andmore » to analyze the impact of possible response measures.« less

Intelligent Modeling for Nuclear Power Plant Accident Management

DOE PAGES

Darling, Michael Christropher; Luger, George F.; Jones, Thomas B.; ...

2018-03-29

This study explores the viability of using counterfactual reasoning for impact analyses when understanding and responding to “beyond-design-basis” nuclear power plant accidents. Currently, when a severe nuclear power plant accident occurs, plant operators rely on Severe Accident Management Guidelines. However, the current guidelines are limited in scope and depth: for certain types of accidents, plant operators would have to work to mitigate the damage with limited experience and guidance for the particular situation. We aim to fill the need for comprehensive accident support by using a dynamic Bayesian network to aid in the diagnosis of a nuclear reactor’s state andmore » to analyze the impact of possible response measures.« less

Effective environmental factors on geographical distribution of traffic accidents on pedestrians, downtown of Tehran City.

PubMed

Moradi, Ali; Rahmani, Khaled; Kavousi, Amir; Eshghabadi, Farshid; Nematollahi, Shahrzad; Zainni, Slahedyn; Soori, Hamid

2018-02-20

The aim of this study was to geographically analyse the traffic casualties in pedestrians in downtown of Tehran City. Study population consisted of pedestrians who had traffic injury accidents from April 2014 to March 2015 in Tehran City. Data were extracted from the offices of traffic police and municipality. For analysis of environmental factors and site of accidents, Ordinary Least Square (OLS) regression models and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) were used. All pedestrian accidents including 514 accidents were assessed in this study in which the site of accidents included arterial streets in 370 (71.9%) cases, collector streets in 133 cases (25.2%) and highways in 11 cases (2.1%). Geographical units of traffic accidents in pedestrians had statistically significant relationship with the number of bus stations, number of crossroads and recreational areas. Neighbourhoods close to markets are considered as the most dangerous places for injury in traffic accidents.

Advanced Fuels Campaign FY 2014 Accomplishments Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Braase, Lori; May, W. Edgar

The mission of the Advanced Fuels Campaign (AFC) is to perform Research, Development, and Demonstration (RD&D) activities for advanced fuel forms (including cladding) to enhance the performance and safety of the nation’s current and future reactors; enhance proliferation resistance of nuclear fuel; effectively utilize nuclear energy resources; and address the longer-term waste management challenges. This includes development of a state-of-the art Research and Development (R&D) infrastructure to support the use of a “goal-oriented science-based approach.” In support of the Fuel Cycle Research and Development (FCRD) program, AFC is responsible for developing advanced fuels technologies to support the various fuel cyclemore » options defined in the Department of Energy (DOE) Nuclear Energy Research and Development Roadmap, Report to Congress, April 2010. AFC uses a “goal-oriented, science-based approach” aimed at a fundamental understanding of fuel and cladding fabrication methods and performance under irradiation, enabling the pursuit of multiple fuel forms for future fuel cycle options. This approach includes fundamental experiments, theory, and advanced modeling and simulation. The modeling and simulation activities for fuel performance are carried out under the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program, which is closely coordinated with AFC. In this report, the word “fuel” is used generically to include fuels, targets, and their associated cladding materials. R&D of light water reactor (LWR) fuels with enhanced accident tolerance is also conducted by AFC. These fuel systems are designed to achieve significantly higher fuel and plant performance to allow operation to significantly higher burnup, and to provide enhanced safety during design basis and beyond design basis accident conditions. The overarching goal is to develop advanced nuclear fuels and materials that are robust, have high performance capability, and are more tolerant to accident conditions than traditional fuel systems. AFC management and integration activities included continued support for international collaborations, primarily with France, Japan, the European Union, Republic of Korea, and China, as well as various working group and expert group activities in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development Nuclear Energy Agency (OECD-NEA) and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Three industry-led Funding Opportunity Announcements (FOAs) and two university-led Integrated Research Projects (IRPs), funded in 2013, made significant progress in fuels and materials development. All are closely integrated with AFC and Accident Tolerant Fuels (ATF) research. Accomplishments made during fiscal year (FY) 2014 are highlighted in this report, which focuses on completed work and results. The process details leading up to the results are not included; however, the lead technical contact is provided for each section.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sattison, M.B.

The Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) over the three years has created 75 plant-specific Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) models using the SAPHIRE suite of PRA codes. Along with the new models, the INEL has also developed a new module for SAPHIRE which is tailored specifically to the unique needs of ASP evaluations. These models and software will be the next generation of risk tools for the evaluation of accident precursors by both the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission`s (NRC`s) Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation (NRR) and the Office for Analysis and Evaluation of Operational Data (AEOD). This paper presents an overviewmore » of the models and software. Key characteristics include: (1) classification of the plant models according to plant response with a unique set of event trees for each plant class, (2) plant-specific fault trees using supercomponents, (3) generation and retention of all system and sequence cutsets, (4) full flexibility in modifying logic, regenerating cutsets, and requantifying results, and (5) user interface for streamlined evaluation of ASP events. Future plans for the ASP models is also presented.« less

Proactive assessment of accident risk to improve safety on a system of freeways.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-05-01

This report describes the development and evaluation of real-time crash risk-assessment models for four freeway corridors: U.S. Route 101 NB (northbound) and SB (southbound) and Interstate 880 NB and SB. Crash data for these freeway segments for the ...

Application of systems and control theory-based hazard analysis to radiation oncology.

PubMed

Pawlicki, Todd; Samost, Aubrey; Brown, Derek W; Manger, Ryan P; Kim, Gwe-Ya; Leveson, Nancy G

2016-03-01

Both humans and software are notoriously challenging to account for in traditional hazard analysis models. The purpose of this work is to investigate and demonstrate the application of a new, extended accident causality model, called systems theoretic accident model and processes (STAMP), to radiation oncology. Specifically, a hazard analysis technique based on STAMP, system-theoretic process analysis (STPA), is used to perform a hazard analysis. The STPA procedure starts with the definition of high-level accidents for radiation oncology at the medical center and the hazards leading to those accidents. From there, the hierarchical safety control structure of the radiation oncology clinic is modeled, i.e., the controls that are used to prevent accidents and provide effective treatment. Using STPA, unsafe control actions (behaviors) are identified that can lead to the hazards as well as causal scenarios that can lead to the identified unsafe control. This information can be used to eliminate or mitigate potential hazards. The STPA procedure is demonstrated on a new online adaptive cranial radiosurgery procedure that omits the CT simulation step and uses CBCT for localization, planning, and surface imaging system during treatment. The STPA procedure generated a comprehensive set of causal scenarios that are traced back to system hazards and accidents. Ten control loops were created for the new SRS procedure, which covered the areas of hospital and department management, treatment design and delivery, and vendor service. Eighty three unsafe control actions were identified as well as 472 causal scenarios that could lead to those unsafe control actions. STPA provides a method for understanding the role of management decisions and hospital operations on system safety and generating process design requirements to prevent hazards and accidents. The interaction of people, hardware, and software is highlighted. The method of STPA produces results that can be used to improve safety and prevent accidents and warrants further investigation.

Assessing accident phobia in mild traumatic brain injury: The Accident Fear Questionnaire.

PubMed

Sutherland, Jessica; Middleton, Jason; Ornstein, Tisha J; Lawson, Kerry; Vickers, Kristin

2016-08-01

Despite a documented prevalence of accident phobia in almost 40% of motor vehicle accident (MVA) survivors, the onset of accident phobia after traumatic brain injury (TBI) remains poorly understood. There is currently a body of knowledge about posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in patients with TBI, but less is known about accident phobia following TBI, particularly in cases of mild TBI (mTBI). Accident phobia can impede safe return to driving or motor vehicle travel, inhibiting return to daily functioning. In addition, pain complaints have been found to correlate positively with postinjury anxiety disorders. The present study sought to determine the reliability and validity of the Accident Fear Questionnaire (AFQ), a measure used to assess accident phobia, in 72 patients with mTBI using secondary data analysis and the subsequent development of accident phobia postinjury. Furthermore, we sought to examine the impact of pain, anxiety, and depression complaints on the AFQ. Results reveal convergent validity and reliability in mTBI populations. Additionally, pain, anxiety, and depression measures were significantly correlated with scores on the AFQ. Psychometrically, the phobia avoidance subscale of the AFQ is a reliable measure for use with mTBI populations, although some limitations were found. In particular, the accident profile (AP) subscale was not found to be reliable or valid and could be eliminated from the AFQ. Collectively, the present study contributes to the small body of published literature evaluating accident phobia in patients with mTBI and the impact of pain on the development of postinjury anxiety disorders. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Work-Related Accidents and Sharp Injuries in Paramedics-Illustrated with an Example of a Multi-Specialist Hospital, Located in Central Poland.

PubMed

Garus-Pakowska, Anna; Szatko, Franciszek; Ulrichs, Magdalena

2017-08-10

(1) Background: An analysis of work-related accidents in paramedics in Poland by presenting the model and trend of accidents, accident rates and by identifying causes and results of accidents; (2) Methods: A retrospective analysis of medical documentation regarding work-related accidents in a multi-specialist hospital, located in central Poland, in the period 2005-2015. The study group included paramedics who had an accident while being on duty; (3) Results: According to hospital records, 88 paramedics were involved in 390 accidents and 265 injuries caused by sharp instruments. The annual accident rate was 5.34/100 employed paramedics. Most of the accidents occurred at night. The most common reason for the accident was careless behaviour of the paramedic, which resulted in joint sprains and dislocations. Injuries accounted for a huge portion of the total number of events. As many as 45% of injuries were not officially recorded; (4) Conclusion: High rates of work-related accidents and injuries caused by sharp instruments in paramedics are a serious public health problem. Further studies should be conducted in order to identify risk factors of accidents, particularly injuries, and to implement preventative programmes, aiming to minimise rates of occupational hazards for paramedics.

Work-Related Accidents and Sharp Injuries in Paramedics—Illustrated with an Example of a Multi-Specialist Hospital, Located in Central Poland

PubMed Central

Szatko, Franciszek; Ulrichs, Magdalena

2017-01-01

(1) Background: An analysis of work-related accidents in paramedics in Poland by presenting the model and trend of accidents, accident rates and by identifying causes and results of accidents; (2) Methods: A retrospective analysis of medical documentation regarding work-related accidents in a multi-specialist hospital, located in central Poland, in the period 2005–2015. The study group included paramedics who had an accident while being on duty; (3) Results: According to hospital records, 88 paramedics were involved in 390 accidents and 265 injuries caused by sharp instruments. The annual accident rate was 5.34/100 employed paramedics. Most of the accidents occurred at night. The most common reason for the accident was careless behaviour of the paramedic, which resulted in joint sprains and dislocations. Injuries accounted for a huge portion of the total number of events. As many as 45% of injuries were not officially recorded; (4) Conclusion: High rates of work-related accidents and injuries caused by sharp instruments in paramedics are a serious public health problem. Further studies should be conducted in order to identify risk factors of accidents, particularly injuries, and to implement preventative programmes, aiming to minimise rates of occupational hazards for paramedics. PMID:28796193

Multiscale Multiphysics Developments for Accident Tolerant Fuel Concepts

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gamble, K. A.; Hales, J. D.; Yu, J.

2015-09-01

U 3Si 2 and iron-chromium-aluminum (Fe-Cr-Al) alloys are two of many proposed accident-tolerant fuel concepts for the fuel and cladding, respectively. The behavior of these materials under normal operating and accident reactor conditions is not well known. As part of the Department of Energy’s Accident Tolerant Fuel High Impact Problem program significant work has been conducted to investigate the U 3Si 2 and FeCrAl behavior under reactor conditions. This report presents the multiscale and multiphysics effort completed in fiscal year 2015. The report is split into four major categories including Density Functional Theory Developments, Molecular Dynamics Developments, Mesoscale Developments, andmore » Engineering Scale Developments. The work shown here is a compilation of a collaborative effort between Idaho National Laboratory, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Argonne National Laboratory and Anatech Corp.« less

Credible investigation of air accidents.

PubMed

Smart, K

2004-07-26

Within the United Kingdom the Air Accidents Investigation Branch (AAIB) has been used as a model for the other transport modes accident investigation bodies. Government Ministers considered that the AAIB's approach had established the trust of the public and the aviation industry in its ability to conduct independent and objective investigations. The paper will examine the factors that are involved in establishing this trust. They include: the investigation framework; the actual and perceived independence of the accident investigating body; the aviation industry's safety culture; the qualities of the investigators and the quality of their liaison with bereaved families those directly affected by the accidents they investigate.

2001 South Dakota motor vehicle traffic accident summary

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2002-05-01

The South Dakota Motor Vehicle Traffic Accident Summary was developed to provide : an overview of the South Dakota traffic accident picture, as well as make frequently : requested information available. Information from 2001 comprises the major porti...

1999 South Dakota motor vehicle traffic accident summary

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2000-05-01

The South Dakota Motor Vehicle Traffic Accident Summary was developed to provide : an overview of the South Dakota traffic accident picture, as well as make frequently : requested information available. Information from 1999 comprises the major porti...

2000 South Dakota motor vehicle traffic accident summary

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2001-01-01

The South Dakota Motor Vehicle Traffic Accident Summary was developed to provide : an overview of the South Dakota traffic accident picture, as well as make frequently : requested information available. Information from 2000 comprises the major porti...

1998 South Dakota motor vehicle traffic accident summary

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1998-01-01

The South Dakota Motor Vehicle Traffic Accident Summary was developed to provide : an overview of the South Dakota traffic accident picture, as well as make frequently : requested information available. Information from 1998 comprises the major porti...

1997 South Dakota motor vehicle traffic accident summary

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-01-01

The South Dakota Motor Vehicle Traffic Accident Summary was developed to provide an : overview of the South Dakota traffic accident picture, as well as make frequently requested : information available. Information from 1997 comprises the major porti...

50 CFR 401.17 - Safety and accident prevention.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 50 Wildlife and Fisheries 7 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Safety and accident prevention. 401.17... FISHERIES CONSERVATION, DEVELOPMENT AND ENHANCEMENT § 401.17 Safety and accident prevention. In the... governing safety, health and sanitation. ...

The predictive validity of safety climate.

PubMed

Johnson, Stephen E

2007-01-01

Safety professionals have increasingly turned their attention to social science for insight into the causation of industrial accidents. One social construct, safety climate, has been examined by several researchers [Cooper, M. D., & Phillips, R. A. (2004). Exploratory analysis of the safety climate and safety behavior relationship. Journal of Safety Research, 35(5), 497-512; Gillen, M., Baltz, D., Gassel, M., Kirsch, L., & Vacarro, D. (2002). Perceived safety climate, job Demands, and coworker support among union and nonunion injured construction workers. Journal of Safety Research, 33(1), 33-51; Neal, A., & Griffin, M. A. (2002). Safety climate and safety behaviour. Australian Journal of Management, 27, 66-76; Zohar, D. (2000). A group-level model of safety climate: Testing the effect of group climate on microaccidents in manufacturing jobs. Journal of Applied Psychology, 85(4), 587-596; Zohar, D., & Luria, G. (2005). A multilevel model of safety climate: Cross-level relationships between organization and group-level climates. Journal of Applied Psychology, 90(4), 616-628] who have documented its importance as a factor explaining the variation of safety-related outcomes (e.g., behavior, accidents). Researchers have developed instruments for measuring safety climate and have established some degree of psychometric reliability and validity. The problem, however, is that predictive validity has not been firmly established, which reduces the credibility of safety climate as a meaningful social construct. The research described in this article addresses this problem and provides additional support for safety climate as a viable construct and as a predictive indicator of safety-related outcomes. This study used 292 employees at three locations of a heavy manufacturing organization to complete the 16 item Zohar Safety Climate Questionnaire (ZSCQ) [Zohar, D., & Luria, G. (2005). A multilevel model of safety climate: Cross-level relationships between organization and group-level climates. Journal of Applied Psychology, 90(4), 616-628]. In addition, safety behavior and accident experience data were collected for 5 months following the survey and were statistically analyzed (structural equation modeling, confirmatory factor analysis, exploratory factor analysis, etc.) to identify correlations, associations, internal consistency, and factorial structures. Results revealed that the ZSCQ: (a) was psychometrically reliable and valid, (b) served as an effective predictor of safety-related outcomes (behavior and accident experience), and (c) could be trimmed to an 11 item survey with little loss of explanatory power. Practitioners and researchers can use the ZSCQ with reasonable certainty of the questionnaire's reliability and validity. This provides a solid foundation for the development of meaningful organizational interventions and/or continued research into social factors affecting industrial accident experience.

Fact book : a summary of information about towaway accidents involving 1973-1975 model cars. Volume 2

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1976-09-01

Standardized injury rates and seat belt effectiveness measures are derived from a probability sample of towaway accidents involving 1973-1975 model cars. The data were collected by NHTSA-sponsored teams in five different geographic regions. Weighted ...

Preliminary assessment of accident-tolerant fuels on LWR performance during normal operation and under DB and BDB accident conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ott, L. J.; Robb, K. R.; Wang, D.

2014-05-01

Following the severe accidents at the Japanese Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station in 2011, the US Department of Energy initiated research and development on the enhancement of the accident tolerance of light water reactors by the development of fuels/cladding that, in comparison with the standard UO2/Zircaloy (Zr) system, can tolerate loss of active cooling in the core for a considerably longer time period while maintaining or improving the fuel performance during normal operations. Analyses are presented that illustrate the impact of these new candidate fuel/cladding materials on the fuel performance at normal operating conditions and on the reactor system under DB and BDB accident conditions.

Development of a bespoke human factors taxonomy for gliding accident analysis and its revelations about highly inexperienced UK glider pilots.

PubMed

Jarvis, Steve; Harris, Don

2010-02-01

Low-hours solo glider pilots have a high risk of accidents compared to more experienced pilots. Numerous taxonomies for causal accident analysis have been produced for powered aviation but none of these is suitable for gliding, so a new taxonomy was required. A human factors taxonomy specifically for glider operations was developed and used to analyse all UK gliding accidents from 2002 to 2006 for their overall causes as well as factors specific to low hours pilots. Fifty-nine categories of pilot-related accident causation emerged, which were formed into progressively larger categories until four overall human factors groups were arrived at: 'judgement'; 'handling'; 'strategy'; 'attention'. 'Handling' accounted for a significantly higher proportion of injuries than other categories. Inexperienced pilots had considerably more accidents in all categories except 'strategy'. Approach control (path judgement, airbrake and speed handling) as well as landing flare misjudgement were chiefly responsible for the high accident rate in early solo glider pilots. Statement of Relevance: This paper uses extant accident data to produce a taxonomy of underlying human factors causes to analyse gliding accidents and identify the specific causes associated with low hours pilots. From this specific, well-targeted remedial measures can be identified.

Why System Safety Professionals Should Read Accident Reports

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Holloway, C. M.; Johnson, C. W.

2006-01-01

System safety professionals, both researchers and practitioners, who regularly read accident reports reap important benefits. These benefits include an improved ability to separate myths from reality, including both myths about specific accidents and ones concerning accidents in general; an increased understanding of the consequences of unlikely events, which can help inform future designs; a greater recognition of the limits of mathematical models; and guidance on potentially relevant research directions that may contribute to safety improvements in future systems.

Analysis 320 coal mine accidents using structural equation modeling with unsafe conditions of the rules and regulations as exogenous variables.

PubMed

Zhang, Yingyu; Shao, Wei; Zhang, Mengjia; Li, Hejun; Yin, Shijiu; Xu, Yingjun

2016-07-01

Mining has been historically considered as a naturally high-risk industry worldwide. Deaths caused by coal mine accidents are more than the sum of all other accidents in China. Statistics of 320 coal mine accidents in Shandong province show that all accidents contain indicators of "unsafe conditions of the rules and regulations" with a frequency of 1590, accounting for 74.3% of the total frequency of 2140. "Unsafe behaviors of the operator" is another important contributory factor, which mainly includes "operator error" and "venturing into dangerous places." A systems analysis approach was applied by using structural equation modeling (SEM) to examine the interactions between the contributory factors of coal mine accidents. The analysis of results leads to three conclusions. (i) "Unsafe conditions of the rules and regulations," affect the "unsafe behaviors of the operator," "unsafe conditions of the equipment," and "unsafe conditions of the environment." (ii) The three influencing factors of coal mine accidents (with the frequency of effect relation in descending order) are "lack of safety education and training," "rules and regulations of safety production responsibility," and "rules and regulations of supervision and inspection." (iii) The three influenced factors (with the frequency in descending order) of coal mine accidents are "venturing into dangerous places," "poor workplace environment," and "operator error." Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bayesian networks for maritime traffic accident prevention: benefits and challenges.

PubMed

Hänninen, Maria

2014-12-01

Bayesian networks are quantitative modeling tools whose applications to the maritime traffic safety context are becoming more popular. This paper discusses the utilization of Bayesian networks in maritime safety modeling. Based on literature and the author's own experiences, the paper studies what Bayesian networks can offer to maritime accident prevention and safety modeling and discusses a few challenges in their application to this context. It is argued that the capability of representing rather complex, not necessarily causal but uncertain relationships makes Bayesian networks an attractive modeling tool for the maritime safety and accidents. Furthermore, as the maritime accident and safety data is still rather scarce and has some quality problems, the possibility to combine data with expert knowledge and the easy way of updating the model after acquiring more evidence further enhance their feasibility. However, eliciting the probabilities from the maritime experts might be challenging and the model validation can be tricky. It is concluded that with the utilization of several data sources, Bayesian updating, dynamic modeling, and hidden nodes for latent variables, Bayesian networks are rather well-suited tools for the maritime safety management and decision-making. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A graph model for preventing railway accidents based on the maximal information coefficient

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shao, Fubo; Li, Keping

2017-01-01

A number of factors influences railway safety. It is an important work to identify important influencing factors and to build the relationship between railway accident and its influencing factors. The maximal information coefficient (MIC) is a good measure of dependence for two-variable relationships which can capture a wide range of associations. Employing MIC, a graph model is proposed for preventing railway accidents which avoids complex mathematical computation. In the graph, nodes denote influencing factors of railway accidents and edges represent dependence of the two linked factors. With the increasing of dependence level, the graph changes from a globally coupled graph to isolated points. Moreover, the important influencing factors are identified from many factors which are the monitor key. Then the relationship between railway accident and important influencing factors is obtained by employing the artificial neural networks. With the relationship, a warning mechanism is built by giving the dangerous zone. If the related factors fall into the dangerous zone in railway operations, the warning level should be raised. The built warning mechanism can prevent railway accidents and can promote railway safety.

Analyzing the severity of accidents on the German Autobahn.

PubMed

Manner, Hans; Wünsch-Ziegler, Laura

2013-08-01

We study the severity of accidents on the German Autobahn in the state of North Rhine-Westphalia using data for the years 2009 until 2011. We use a multinomial logit model to identify statistically relevant factors explaining the severity of the most severe injury, which is classified into the four classes fatal, severe injury, light injury and property damage. Furthermore, to account for unobserved heterogeneity we use a random parameter model. We study the effect of a number of factors including traffic information, road conditions, type of accidents, speed limits, presence of intelligent traffic control systems, age and gender of the driver and location of the accident. Our findings are in line with studies in different settings and indicate that accidents during daylight and at interchanges or construction sites are less severe in general. Accidents caused by the collision with roadside objects, involving pedestrians and motorcycles, or caused by bad sight conditions tend to be more severe. We discuss the measures of the 2011 German traffic safety programm in the light of our results. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

NASA Structural Analysis Report on the American Airlines Flight 587 Accident - Local Analysis of the Right Rear Lug

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Raju, Ivatury S; Glaessgen, Edward H.; Mason, Brian H; Krishnamurthy, Thiagarajan; Davila, Carlos G

2005-01-01

A detailed finite element analysis of the right rear lug of the American Airlines Flight 587 - Airbus A300-600R was performed as part of the National Transportation Safety Board s failure investigation of the accident that occurred on November 12, 2001. The loads experienced by the right rear lug are evaluated using global models of the vertical tail, local models near the right rear lug, and a global-local analysis procedure. The right rear lug was analyzed using two modeling approaches. In the first approach, solid-shell type modeling is used, and in the second approach, layered-shell type modeling is used. The solid-shell and the layered-shell modeling approaches were used in progressive failure analyses (PFA) to determine the load, mode, and location of failure in the right rear lug under loading representative of an Airbus certification test conducted in 1985 (the 1985-certification test). Both analyses were in excellent agreement with each other on the predicted failure loads, failure mode, and location of failure. The solid-shell type modeling was then used to analyze both a subcomponent test conducted by Airbus in 2003 (the 2003-subcomponent test) and the accident condition. Excellent agreement was observed between the analyses and the observed failures in both cases. From the analyses conducted and presented in this paper, the following conclusions were drawn. The moment, Mx (moment about the fuselage longitudinal axis), has significant effect on the failure load of the lugs. Higher absolute values of Mx give lower failure loads. The predicted load, mode, and location of the failure of the 1985-certification test, 2003-subcomponent test, and the accident condition are in very good agreement. This agreement suggests that the 1985-certification and 2003- subcomponent tests represent the accident condition accurately. The failure mode of the right rear lug for the 1985-certification test, 2003-subcomponent test, and the accident load case is identified as a cleavage-type failure. For the accident case, the predicted failure load for the right rear lug from the PFA is greater than 1.98 times the limit load of the lugs. I.

Upon the reconstruction of accidents triggered by tire explosion. Analytical model and case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaiginschi, L.; Agape, I.; Talif, S.

2017-10-01

Accident Reconstruction is important in the general context of increasing road traffic safety. In the casuistry of traffic accidents, those caused by tire explosions are critical under the severity of consequences, because they are usually happening at high speeds. Consequently, the knowledge of the running speed of the vehicle involved at the time of the tire explosion is essential to elucidate the circumstances of the accident. The paper presents an analytical model for the kinematics of a vehicle which, after the explosion of one of its tires, begins to skid, overturns and rolls. The model consists of two concurent approaches built as applications of the momentum conservation and energy conservation principles, and allows determination of the initial speed of the vehicle involved, by running backwards the sequences of the road event. The authors also aimed to both validate the two distinct analytical approaches by calibrating the calculation algorithms on a case study

Exploring inattention and distraction in the SafetyNet Accident Causation Database.

PubMed

Talbot, Rachel; Fagerlind, Helen; Morris, Andrew

2013-11-01

Distraction and inattention are considered to be very important and prevalent factors in the causation of road accidents. There have been many recent research studies which have attempted to understand the circumstances under which a driver becomes distracted or inattentive and how distraction/inattention can be prevented. Both factors are thought to have become more important in recent times partly due to the evolution of in-vehicle information and communication technology. This study describes a methodology that was developed to understand when factors such as distraction and inattention may have been contributors to crashes and also describes some of the consequences of distraction and inattention in terms of subsequent driver actions. The study uses data relating to distraction and inattention from the SafetyNet Accident Causation Database. This database was formulated as part of the SafetyNet project to address the lack of representative in-depth accident causation data within the European Union. Data were collected in 6 European countries using 'on-scene' and 'nearly on-scene' crash investigation methodologies. 32% of crashes recorded in the database, involved at least one driver, rider or pedestrian, who was determined to be 'Inattentive' or 'Distracted'. 212 of the drivers were assigned 'Distraction' and 140 drivers were given the code 'Inattention'. It was found that both distraction and inattention often lead to missed observations within the driving task and consequently 'Timing' or 'Direction' become critical events in the aetiology of crashes. In addition, the crash types and outcomes may differ according to the type and nature of the distraction and inattention as determined by the in-depth investigations. The development of accident coding methodology is described in this study as is its evolution into the Driver Reliability and Error Analysis Model (DREAM) version 3.0. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Tourist visitation impacts of the accident at Three Mile Island

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Himmelberger, J.J.; Ogneva-Himmelberger, Y.A.; Baughman, M.L.

This paper analyzes tourist visitation impacts of the March 27, 1979 accident at Three Mile Island. A review of the literature, supplemented with recollections from Pennsylvanian public officials, are used to specify a conventional tourism impact model which holds that depressed 1979 summer tourism season was more influenced by gasoline shortages and possibly other confounding variables (such as rainy local weather conditions and a polio outbreak) than by the nuclear accident. Regression analysis using monthly visitation data for Hershey Chocolate World, Gettysburg National Park, The Pennsylvania Dutch Convention and Visitor Bureau, and several state parks as dependent variables provide supportmore » for this model. Potential tourism implications of an accident at Yucca Mountain are briefly discussed in light of our findings.« less

[Mental health status of drivers--Motor vehicle accidents perpetrators].

PubMed

Merecz-Kot, Dorota; Waszkowska, Malgorzata; Wężyk, Agata

2015-01-01

This study aimed at exploring the phenomenon of motor vehicle accidents (MVA). The following research questions were addressed: what are the immediate reactions to accidents among MVA perpetrators, do MVA perpetrators develop posttraumatic stress symptoms, and what are the differences between high and low symptomatic signs in terms of socio-demographics and accident features? Post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) questionnaire by Watson et al. in the Polish adaptation was applied to assess PTSD and its subclinical symptoms. The information on the MVA nature, declared MVA causes, drivers' reactions after MVA, as well as on the age, education and history of driving in the study group was collected. The results of psychological examination obtained from 209 MVA perpetrators were analyzed. The examination took place at least 1 month after the accident. In 1/3 of the study group no physiological reactions were observed directly after the accident, while 46% of respondents experienced trembling and shaking and about 30% of subjects were crying or having tears in their eyes. Compassion for the injured and victims, guilt, helplessness and fear were the most common among immediate psychological reactions related to the accident. On the day of psychological examination 11.2% of drivers met diagnostic criteria for PTSD according to the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth edition (DSM-IV). Drivers showing low and high PTSD symptoms did not differ in terms of age, education, and subjective perception of accident cause. Women were significantly overrepresented it the group meeting the diagnostic criteria for PTSD. The results of the study indicate the need to carry on systematic screening for mental health problems in drivers involved in serious MVA as a part of strategy for improving road safety. This work is available in Open Access model and licensed under a CC BY-NC 3.0 PL license.

Research requirements to improve safety of civil helicopters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Waters, K. T.

1977-01-01

Helicopter and fixed-wing accident data were reviewed and major accident causal factors were established. The impact of accidents on insurance rates was examined and the differences in fixed-wing and helicopter accident costs discussed. The state of the art in civil helicopter safety was compared to military helicopters. Goals were established based on incorporation of known technology and achievable improvements that require development, as well as administrative-type changes such as the impact of improved operational planning, training, and human factors effects. Specific R and D recommendations are provided with an estimation of the payoffs, timing, and development costs.

Workers' Compensation Insurance and Occupational Injuries

PubMed Central

Oh, Jun-Byoung; Yi, Hyung Kwan

2011-01-01

Objectives Although compensation for occupational injuries and diseases is guaranteed in almost all nations, countries vary greatly with respect to how they organize workers' compensation systems. In this paper, we focus on three aspects of workers' compensation insurance in Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries - types of systems, employers' funding mechanisms, and coverage for injured workers - and their impacts on the actual frequencies of occupational injuries and diseases. Methods We estimated a panel data fixed effect model with cross-country OECD and International Labor Organization data. We controlled for country fixed effects, relevant aggregate variables, and dummy variables representing the occupational accidents data source. Results First, the use of a private insurance system is found to lower the occupational accidents. Second, the use of risk-based pricing for the payment of employer raises the occupational injuries and diseases. Finally, the wider the coverage of injured workers is, the less frequent the workplace accidents are. Conclusion Private insurance system, fixed flat rate employers' funding mechanism, and higher coverage of compensation scheme are significantly and positively correlated with lower level of occupational accidents compared with the public insurance system, risk-based funding system, and lower coverage of compensation scheme. PMID:22953197

Toxic release consequence analysis tool (TORCAT) for inherently safer design plant.

PubMed

Shariff, Azmi Mohd; Zaini, Dzulkarnain

2010-10-15

Many major accidents due to toxic release in the past have caused many fatalities such as the tragedy of MIC release in Bhopal, India (1984). One of the approaches is to use inherently safer design technique that utilizes inherent safety principle to eliminate or minimize accidents rather than to control the hazard. This technique is best implemented in preliminary design stage where the consequence of toxic release can be evaluated and necessary design improvements can be implemented to eliminate or minimize the accidents to as low as reasonably practicable (ALARP) without resorting to costly protective system. However, currently there is no commercial tool available that has such capability. This paper reports on the preliminary findings on the development of a prototype tool for consequence analysis and design improvement via inherent safety principle by utilizing an integrated process design simulator with toxic release consequence analysis model. The consequence analysis based on the worst-case scenarios during process flowsheeting stage were conducted as case studies. The preliminary finding shows that toxic release consequences analysis tool (TORCAT) has capability to eliminate or minimize the potential toxic release accidents by adopting the inherent safety principle early in preliminary design stage. 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Fukushima Daiichi Accident Study Information Portal

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shawn St. Germain; Curtis Smith; David Schwieder

This paper presents a description of The Fukushima Daiichi Accident Study Information Portal. The Information Portal was created by the Idaho National Laboratory as part of joint NRC and DOE project to assess the severe accident modeling capability of the MELCOR analysis code. The Fukushima Daiichi Accident Study Information Portal was created to collect, store, retrieve and validate information and data for use in reconstructing the Fukushima Daiichi accident. In addition to supporting the MELCOR simulations, the Portal will be the main DOE repository for all data, studies and reports related to the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear powermore » station. The data is stored in a secured (password protected and encrypted) repository that is searchable and accessible to researchers at diverse locations.« less

A method for simplifying the analysis of traffic accidents injury severity on two-lane highways using Bayesian networks.

PubMed

Mujalli, Randa Oqab; de Oña, Juan

2011-10-01

This study describes a method for reducing the number of variables frequently considered in modeling the severity of traffic accidents. The method's efficiency is assessed by constructing Bayesian networks (BN). It is based on a two stage selection process. Several variable selection algorithms, commonly used in data mining, are applied in order to select subsets of variables. BNs are built using the selected subsets and their performance is compared with the original BN (with all the variables) using five indicators. The BNs that improve the indicators' values are further analyzed for identifying the most significant variables (accident type, age, atmospheric factors, gender, lighting, number of injured, and occupant involved). A new BN is built using these variables, where the results of the indicators indicate, in most of the cases, a statistically significant improvement with respect to the original BN. It is possible to reduce the number of variables used to model traffic accidents injury severity through BNs without reducing the performance of the model. The study provides the safety analysts a methodology that could be used to minimize the number of variables used in order to determine efficiently the injury severity of traffic accidents without reducing the performance of the model. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Safety-in-numbers: Estimates based on a sample of pedestrian crossings in Norway.

PubMed

Elvik, Rune

2016-06-01

Safety-in-numbers denotes the tendency for the risk of accident for each road user to decline as the number of road users increases. Safety-in-numbers implies that a doubling of the number of road users will be associated with less than a doubling of the number of accidents. This paper investigates safety-in-numbers in 239 pedestrian crossings in Oslo and its suburbs. Accident prediction models were fitted by means of negative binomial regression. The models indicate a very strong safety-in-numbers effect. In the final model, the coefficients for traffic volume were 0.05 for motor vehicles, 0.07 for pedestrians and 0.12 for cyclists. The coefficient for motor vehicles implies that the number of accidents is almost independent of the number of motor vehicles. The safety-in-numbers effect found in this paper is stronger than reported in any other study dealing with safety-in-numbers. It should be noted that the model explained only 21% of the systematic variation in the number of accidents. It therefore cannot be ruled out that the results are influenced by omitted variable bias. Any such bias would, however, have to be very large to eliminate the safety-in-numbers effect. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Severe Accident Test Station Design Document

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Snead, Mary A.; Yan, Yong; Howell, Michael

The purpose of the ORNL severe accident test station (SATS) is to provide a platform for evaluation of advanced fuels under projected beyond design basis accident (BDBA) conditions. The SATS delivers the capability to map the behavior of advanced fuels concepts under accident scenarios across various temperature and pressure profiles, steam and steam-hydrogen gas mixtures, and thermal shock. The overall facility will include parallel capabilities for examination of fuels and irradiated materials (in-cell) and non-irradiated materials (out-of-cell) at BDBA conditions as well as design basis accident (DBA) or loss of coolant accident (LOCA) conditions. Also, a supporting analytical infrastructure tomore » provide the data-needs for the fuel-modeling components of the Fuel Cycle Research and Development (FCRD) program will be put in place in a parallel manner. This design report contains the information for the first, second and third phases of design and construction of the SATS. The first phase consisted of the design and construction of an out-of-cell BDBA module intended for examination of non-irradiated materials. The second phase of this work was to construct the BDBA in-cell module to test irradiated fuels and materials as well as the module for DBA (i.e. LOCA) testing out-of-cell, The third phase was to build the in-cell DBA module. The details of the design constraints and requirements for the in-cell facility have been closely captured during the deployment of the out-of-cell SATS modules to ensure effective future implementation of the in-cell modules.« less

49 CFR 225.1 - Purpose.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... TRANSPORTATION RAILROAD ACCIDENTS/INCIDENTS: REPORTS CLASSIFICATION, AND INVESTIGATIONS § 225.1 Purpose. The... information for determining comparative trends of railroad safety and to develop hazard elimination and risk... accident/incident and injury/illness reports filed with FRA under this part, for accidents/incidents and...

Use of questionnaires and an expert panel to judge the environmental consequences of chemical spills for the development of an environment-accident index.

PubMed

Andersson, Asa Scott; Stjernström, Olof; Fängmark, Ingrid

2005-05-01

Assessing the environmental consequences of a chemical accident is a complex task. To date, the methods used to evaluate the environmental effects of an acute release of a chemical have often been based on measurements of chemical and physical variables deemed to be important, such as the concentration of the chemical. However, a broader strategy is needed to predict the environmental consequences of potential accidents during the planning process. An Environment-Accident Index (EAI), a simple tool based on such a strategy, has been developed to facilitate the consideration of a multitude of influential variables. The objectives of this study were to evaluate whether questionnaire-based expert panel's judgements could provide useful data on the environmental consequences of chemical spills, and an effective basis for further development of the EAI. As expected, the judgements did not agree perfectly, but they do give rough indications of the environmental effects, and highlight consistent trends that should be useful inputs for planning, prevention and decontamination processes. The different accidents were also judged to have caused everything from minor to very major effects in the environment, implying that a wide range of accident scenarios were represented in the material and covered by the EAI. Therefore, questionnaires and expert panel judgements can be used to collect useful data for estimating the likely environmental consequences of chemical accidents and for further development of the EAI.

Perpetrator or Victim? Effects of Who Suffers in an Automobile Accident on Judgemental Strictness

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shaw, Jerry I.; McMartin, James A.

1975-01-01

After reading of an automobile accident in which the driver and/or bystanders either suffered or did not suffer, subjects rated the driver's responsibility for the accident and sentenced him to a jail term. The purpose of this experiment was to contrast three theoretical models: defensive attribution, moral salience, and equity. (Author)

Canister Storage Building (CSB) Design Basis Accident Analysis Documentation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

CROWE, R.D.; PIEPHO, M.G.

2000-03-23

This document provided the detailed accident analysis to support HNF-3553, Spent Nuclear Fuel Project Final Safety Analysis Report, Annex A, ''Canister Storage Building Final Safety Analysis Report''. All assumptions, parameters, and models used to provide the analysis of the design basis accidents are documented to support the conclusions in the Canister Storage Building Final Safety Analysis Report.

Identifying antecedent conditions responsible for the high rate of mining injuries in Zambia.

PubMed

Miller, Hugh B; Sinkala, Thomson; Renger, Ralph F; Peacock, Erin M; Tabor, Joseph A; Burgess, Jefferey L

2006-01-01

The incident rates of mining-related accidents and injuries in developing countries exceed those of developed nations. Interventions by international organizations routinely fail to produce appreciable long-term improvement. One major reason is the inability to identify and analyze the underlying factors responsible for creating unsafe working conditions. Understanding these antecedent conditions is necessary to formulate effective intervention strategies and prioritize the use of limited resources. This study utilized a logic model approach to determine the root causes and broad categories of potential interventions for mining accidents and injuries in Zambia. Results showed that policy interventions have the greatest potential for substantive change. A process of educating officials from government and mining companies about the economic and social merits of health and safety programs and extensive changes in regulatory structure and enforcement are needed.

CRAC2 model description

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ritchie, L.T.; Alpert, D.J.; Burke, R.P.

1984-03-01

The CRAC2 computer code is a revised version of CRAC (Calculation of Reactor Accident Consequences) which was developed for the Reactor Safety Study. This document provides an overview of the CRAC2 code and a description of each of the models used. Significant improvements incorporated into CRAC2 include an improved weather sequence sampling technique, a new evacuation model, and new output capabilities. In addition, refinements have been made to the atmospheric transport and deposition model. Details of the modeling differences between CRAC2 and CRAC are emphasized in the model descriptions.

Analyzing a Mid-Air Collision Over the Hudson River

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, Sean; Holloway, C. Michael

2012-01-01

On August 8, 2009, a private airplane collided with a sightseeing helicopter over the Hudson River near Hoboken, New Jersey. All three people aboard the airplane, the pilot and two passengers, and all six people aboard the helicopter, the pilot and five passengers, were killed. The National Transportation Safety Board report on the accident identified inherent limitations of the see-and-avoid concept, inadequate regulations, and errors by the pilots and an air traffic controller as causing or contributing to the accident. This paper presents the results of analyzing the accident using the Systems-Theoretic Accident Model and Processes (STAMP) approach to determining accident causation.

Identification and testing of countermeasures for specific alcohol accident types and problems. Volume 4, Appendices

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1984-12-01

This report summarizes work conducted to investigate the feasibility of developing effective countermeasures directed at specific alcohol-related accidents or problems. In Phase I, literature and accident data were reviewed to determine the scope and...

Comparison of interior crashworthiness observed in passenger train accidents and 8G dynamic seat sled tests

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-04-17

The Office of Research and Development of the Federal Railroad Administration conducts engineering research to address protection of passengers and crew during train accidents. This research includes accident investigations and dynamic seat testing t...

Wet weather highway accident analysis and skid resistance data management system (volume I).

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1992-06-01

The objectives and scope of this research are to establish an effective methodology for wet weather accident analysis and to develop a database management system to facilitate information processing and storage for the accident analysis process, skid...

Identification and testing of countermeasures for specific alcohol accident types and problems. Volume 1, Executive summary

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1984-12-01

This report summarizes work conducted to investigate the feasibility of developing effective countermeasures directed at specific alcohol-related accidents or problems. In Phase I, literature and accident data were reviewed to determine the scope and...

A Finite Element Model of a Midsize Male for Simulating Pedestrian Accidents.

PubMed

Untaroiu, Costin D; Pak, Wansoo; Meng, Yunzhu; Schap, Jeremy; Koya, Bharath; Gayzik, Scott

2018-01-01

Pedestrians represent one of the most vulnerable road users and comprise nearly 22% the road crash-related fatalities in the world. Therefore, protection of pedestrians in car-to-pedestrian collisions (CPC) has recently generated increased attention with regulations involving three subsystem tests. The development of a finite element (FE) pedestrian model could provide a complementary component that characterizes the whole-body response of vehicle-pedestrian interactions and assesses the pedestrian injuries. The main goal of this study was to develop and to validate a simplified full body FE model corresponding to a 50th male pedestrian in standing posture (M50-PS). The FE model mesh and defined material properties are based on a 50th percentile male occupant model. The lower limb-pelvis and lumbar spine regions of the human model were validated against the postmortem human surrogate (PMHS) test data recorded in four-point lateral knee bending tests, pelvic\\abdomen\\shoulder\\thoracic impact tests, and lumbar spine bending tests. Then, a pedestrian-to-vehicle impact simulation was performed using the whole pedestrian model, and the results were compared to corresponding PMHS tests. Overall, the simulation results showed that lower leg response is mostly within the boundaries of PMHS corridors. In addition, the model shows the capability to predict the most common lower extremity injuries observed in pedestrian accidents. Generally, the validated pedestrian model may be used by safety researchers in the design of front ends of new vehicles in order to increase pedestrian protection.

Analytics of Radioactive Materials Released in the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Accident

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Egarievwe, Stephen U.; Nuclear Engineering Department, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN; Coble, Jamie B.

The 2011 Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident in Japan resulted in the release of radioactive materials into the atmosphere, the nearby sea, and the surrounding land. Following the accident, several meteorological models were used to predict the transport of the radioactive materials to other continents such as North America and Europe. Also of high importance is the dispersion of radioactive materials locally and within Japan. Based on the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Convention on Early Notification of a nuclear accident, several radiological data sets were collected on the accident by the Japanese authorities. Among the radioactive materials monitored, are I-131more » and Cs-137 which form the major contributions to the contamination of drinking water. The radiation dose in the atmosphere was also measured. It is impractical to measure contamination and radiation dose in every place of interest. Therefore, modeling helps to predict contamination and radiation dose. Some modeling studies that have been reported in the literature include the simulation of transport and deposition of I-131 and Cs-137 from the accident, Cs-137 deposition and contamination of Japanese soils, and preliminary estimates of I-131 and Cs-137 discharged from the plant into the atmosphere. In this paper, we present statistical analytics of I-131 and Cs-137 with the goal of predicting gamma dose from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident. The data sets used in our study were collected from the IAEA Fukushima Monitoring Database. As part of this study, we investigated several regression models to find the best algorithm for modeling the gamma dose. The modeling techniques used in our study include linear regression, principal component regression (PCR), partial least square (PLS) regression, and ridge regression. Our preliminary results on the first set of data showed that the linear regression model with one variable was the best with a root mean square error of 0.0133 μSv/h, compared to 0.0210 μSv/h for PCR, 0.231 μSv/h for ridge regression L-curve, 0.0856 μSv/h for PLS, and 0.0860 μSv/h for ridge regression cross validation. Complete results using the full datasets for these models will also be presented. (authors)« less

Analysis of railroad tank car releases using a generalized binomial model.

PubMed

Liu, Xiang; Hong, Yili

2015-11-01

The United States is experiencing an unprecedented boom in shale oil production, leading to a dramatic growth in petroleum crude oil traffic by rail. In 2014, U.S. railroads carried over 500,000 tank carloads of petroleum crude oil, up from 9500 in 2008 (a 5300% increase). In light of continual growth in crude oil by rail, there is an urgent national need to manage this emerging risk. This need has been underscored in the wake of several recent crude oil release incidents. In contrast to highway transport, which usually involves a tank trailer, a crude oil train can carry a large number of tank cars, having the potential for a large, multiple-tank-car release incident. Previous studies exclusively assumed that railroad tank car releases in the same train accident are mutually independent, thereby estimating the number of tank cars releasing given the total number of tank cars derailed based on a binomial model. This paper specifically accounts for dependent tank car releases within a train accident. We estimate the number of tank cars releasing given the number of tank cars derailed based on a generalized binomial model. The generalized binomial model provides a significantly better description for the empirical tank car accident data through our numerical case study. This research aims to provide a new methodology and new insights regarding the further development of risk management strategies for improving railroad crude oil transportation safety. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Learning from Trending, Precursor Analysis, and System Failures

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Youngblood, R. W.; Duffey, R. B.

2015-11-01

Models of reliability growth relate current system unreliability to currently accumulated experience. But “experience” comes in different forms. Looking back after a major accident, one is sometimes able to identify previous events or measurable performance trends that were, in some sense, signaling the potential for that major accident: potential that could have been recognized and acted upon, but was not recognized until the accident occurred. This could be a previously unrecognized cause of accidents, or underestimation of the likelihood that a recognized potential cause would actually operate. Despite improvements in the state of practice of modeling of risk and reliability,more » operational experience still has a great deal to teach us, and work has been going on in several industries to try to do a better job of learning from experience before major accidents occur. It is not enough to say that we should review operating experience; there is too much “experience” for such general advice to be considered practical. The paper discusses the following: 1. The challenge of deciding what to focus on in analysis of operating experience. 2. Comparing what different models of learning and reliability growth imply about trending and precursor analysis.« less

Simulation of three lanes one-way freeway in low visibility weather by possible traffic accidents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pang, Ming-bao; Zheng, Sha-sha; Cai, Zhang-hui

2015-09-01

The aim of this work is to investigate the traffic impact of low visibility weather on a freeway including the fraction of real vehicle rear-end accidents and road traffic capacity. Based on symmetric two-lane Nagel-Schreckenberg (STNS) model, a cellular automaton model of three-lane freeway mainline with the real occurrence of rear-end accidents in low visibility weather, which considers delayed reaction time and deceleration restriction, was established with access to real-time traffic information of intelligent transportation system (ITS). The characteristics of traffic flow in different visibility weather were discussed via the simulation experiments. The results indicate that incoming flow control (decreasing upstream traffic volume) and inputting variable speed limits (VSL) signal are effective in accident reducing and road actual traffic volume's enhancing. According to different visibility and traffic demand the appropriate control strategies should be adopted in order to not only decrease the probability of vehicle accidents but also avoid congestion.

A comparative study of road traffic accidents in West Malaysia.

PubMed Central

Silva, J. F.

1978-01-01

The problem of road traffic accidents in developing countries is now becoming a cause for concern. This is more so as preventive measures have not kept pace with economic progress and development. This paper reviews the present situation in West Malaysia, one of the better developed countries of the East, during the period 1970 to 1975. A comparative study has been made between the United States and Malaysia. To enable the urgency of the problem in developing countries to be appreciated the increases in the country's population and in the number of vehicles in use and their relation to the lesser increase in road mileage over the period of study have been discussed. The study has considered every aspect of the causative factors leading to traffic accidents, such as the effects of weather, seasonal variation, and road and lighting conditions. The common human errors leading to accidents have been discussed. Other factors, such as the ethnic distribution in Malaysia, and their relation to road accidents have shown the effect of the social structure on the problems. The data evaluated in this study make it clear that preventive measures are very necessary in underdeveloped as well as in developed countries. PMID:718073

A comparative study of road traffic accidents in West Malaysia.

PubMed

Silva, J F

1978-11-01

The problem of road traffic accidents in developing countries is now becoming a cause for concern. This is more so as preventive measures have not kept pace with economic progress and development. This paper reviews the present situation in West Malaysia, one of the better developed countries of the East, during the period 1970 to 1975. A comparative study has been made between the United States and Malaysia. To enable the urgency of the problem in developing countries to be appreciated the increases in the country's population and in the number of vehicles in use and their relation to the lesser increase in road mileage over the period of study have been discussed. The study has considered every aspect of the causative factors leading to traffic accidents, such as the effects of weather, seasonal variation, and road and lighting conditions. The common human errors leading to accidents have been discussed. Other factors, such as the ethnic distribution in Malaysia, and their relation to road accidents have shown the effect of the social structure on the problems. The data evaluated in this study make it clear that preventive measures are very necessary in underdeveloped as well as in developed countries.

Use of multiscale zirconium alloy deformation models in nuclear fuel behavior analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Montgomery, Robert, E-mail: robert.montgomery@pnnl.gov; Tomé, Carlos, E-mail: tome@lanl.gov; Liu, Wenfeng, E-mail: wenfeng.liu@anatech.com

Accurate prediction of cladding mechanical behavior is a key aspect of modeling nuclear fuel behavior, especially for conditions of pellet-cladding interaction (PCI), reactivity-initiated accidents (RIA), and loss of coolant accidents (LOCA). Current approaches to fuel performance modeling rely on empirical constitutive models for cladding creep, growth and plastic deformation, which are limited to the materials and conditions for which the models were developed. To improve upon this approach, a microstructurally-based zirconium alloy mechanical deformation analysis capability is being developed within the United States Department of Energy Consortium for Advanced Simulation of Light Water Reactors (CASL). Specifically, the viscoplastic self-consistent (VPSC)more » polycrystal plasticity modeling approach, developed by Lebensohn and Tomé [1], has been coupled with the BISON engineering scale fuel performance code to represent the mechanistic material processes controlling the deformation behavior of light water reactor (LWR) cladding. A critical component of VPSC is the representation of the crystallographic nature (defect and dislocation movement) and orientation of the grains within the matrix material and the ability to account for the role of texture on deformation. A future goal is for VPSC to obtain information on reaction rate kinetics from atomistic calculations to inform the defect and dislocation behavior models described in VPSC. The multiscale modeling of cladding deformation mechanisms allowed by VPSC far exceed the functionality of typical semi-empirical constitutive models employed in nuclear fuel behavior codes to model irradiation growth and creep, thermal creep, or plasticity. This paper describes the implementation of an interface between VPSC and BISON and provides initial results utilizing the coupled functionality.« less

TRAC-P1: an advanced best estimate computer program for PWR LOCA analysis. I. Methods, models, user information, and programming details

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1978-05-01

The Transient Reactor Analysis Code (TRAC) is being developed at the Los Alamos Scientific Laboratory (LASL) to provide an advanced ''best estimate'' predictive capability for the analysis of postulated accidents in light water reactors (LWRs). TRAC-Pl provides this analysis capability for pressurized water reactors (PWRs) and for a wide variety of thermal-hydraulic experimental facilities. It features a three-dimensional treatment of the pressure vessel and associated internals; two-phase nonequilibrium hydrodynamics models; flow-regime-dependent constitutive equation treatment; reflood tracking capability for both bottom flood and falling film quench fronts; and consistent treatment of entire accident sequences including the generation of consistent initial conditions.more » The TRAC-Pl User's Manual is composed of two separate volumes. Volume I gives a description of the thermal-hydraulic models and numerical solution methods used in the code. Detailed programming and user information is also provided. Volume II presents the results of the developmental verification calculations.« less

Environmental accident and its treatment in a developing country: a case study on China.

PubMed

Hou, Yu

2012-08-01

Along with their rapid progress, developing countries have had to deal with more environmental problems, which have been a cause for concern among policy makers and the public in general. This study cites two accidents that happened in China in 2006 that caused serious environmental problems in nearby communities and discusses the problems these accidents created and the resulting disputes among the concerned people. Pollution-causing accidents not only pose threats to the health of the victims but also give rise to environmental disputes that jeopardise national security and social stability. Conflicts normally ensue following a pollution-causing accident, which are more likely to happen within a development zone or industrial park. Few environmental conflicts in the past decades were resolved through litigation. Nevertheless, there are lapses in the regulatory system, which have to be addressed to ensure that the public's rights and interests are protected. Currently, reports on pollution-causing accidents are difficult to obtain and are often released very late. A majority of industrial firms operate without environmental clearance, thus highlighting the government's inefficiency in environmental management. It is about time that the Chinese government takes seriously the use of the Environmental Impact Assessment.

A biokinetic model for {sup 137}Cs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Melo, D.R.; Lipsztein, J.L.; Oliveira, C.A.N.

1997-08-01

An improved biokinetic model for {sup 137}Cs in humans was developed based on an analysis of data obtained from individuals internally contaminated during an accident in Goiania, Brazil, and other data. Seventeen children (ten girls and seven boys 1-10 y old), ten adolescents (four females and six males), and thirty adults, (fifteen females and fifteen males) contaminated in the accident in Goiania contributed to this study. {sup 137}Cs retention was determined through periodic measurements in a whole-body counter. In addition to the data on {sup 137}Cs retention from these individuals, data from a study on the metabolism of {sup 137}Csmore » in immature, adult, and aged Beagle dogs and data from the literature were used in the formulation of the {sup 137}Cs biokinetic model presented. Mathematically, the retention of cesium is described by three exponential terms, and the retention model is based on a step function of body weight. When the ICRP Publication 56 model for cesium was compared to the model suggested in this paper, it was determined that the ICRP model predicts lower effective doses in 5-y-old children and higher effective doses in infants, adolescents, and adults.« less

Safety of high-speed guided ground transportation systems : collision avoidance and accident survivability : volume 3 : accident survivability

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1993-03-01

This report is the third of four volumes concerned with developing safety guidelines and specifications for high-speed guided ground transportation (HSGGT) collision avoidance and accident survivability. The overall approach taken in this study is to...

Identification and testing of countermeasures for specific alcohol accident types and problems. Volume 2, General driver alcohol problem

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1984-12-01

This report summarizes work conducted to investigate the feasibility of developing effective countermeasures directed at specific alcohol-related accidents or problems. In Phase I, literature and accident data were reviewed to determine the scope and...

Wet weather highway accident analysis and skid resistance data management system (volume II : user's manual).

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1992-06-01

The objectives and scope of this research are to establish an effective methodology for wet weather accident analysis and to develop a database management system to facilitate information processing and storage for the accident analysis process, skid...

Emergency drinking water treatment during source water pollution accidents in China: origin analysis, framework and technologies.

PubMed

Zhang, Xiao-Jian; Chen, Chao; Lin, Peng-Fei; Hou, Ai-Xin; Niu, Zhang-Bin; Wang, Jun

2011-01-01

China has suffered frequent source water contamination accidents in the past decade, which has resulted in severe consequences to the water supply of millions of residents. The origins of typical cases of contamination are discussed in this paper as well as the emergency response to these accidents. In general, excessive pursuit of rapid industrialization and the unreasonable location of factories are responsible for the increasing frequency of accidental pollution events. Moreover, insufficient attention to environmental protection and rudimentary emergency response capability has exacerbated the consequences of such accidents. These environmental accidents triggered or accelerated the promulgation of stricter environmental protection policy and the shift from economic development mode to a more sustainable direction, which should be regarded as the turning point of environmental protection in China. To guarantee water security, China is trying to establish a rapid and effective emergency response framework, build up the capability of early accident detection, and develop efficient technologies to remove contaminants from water.

Expert systems for fault diagnosis in nuclear reactor control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jalel, N. A.; Nicholson, H.

1990-11-01

An expert system for accident analysis and fault diagnosis for the Loss Of Fluid Test (LOFT) reactor, a small scale pressurized water reactor, was developed for a personal computer. The knowledge of the system is presented using a production rule approach with a backward chaining inference engine. The data base of the system includes simulated dependent state variables of the LOFT reactor model. Another system is designed to assist the operator in choosing the appropriate cooling mode and to diagnose the fault in the selected cooling system. The response tree, which is used to provide the link between a list of very specific accident sequences and a set of generic emergency procedures which help the operator in monitoring system status, and to differentiate between different accident sequences and select the correct procedures, is used to build the system knowledge base. Both systems are written in TURBO PROLOG language and can be run on an IBM PC compatible with 640k RAM, 40 Mbyte hard disk and color graphics.

Explorative spatial analysis of traffic accident statistics and road mortality among the provinces of Turkey.

PubMed

Erdogan, Saffet

2009-10-01

The aim of the study is to describe the inter-province differences in traffic accidents and mortality on roads of Turkey. Two different risk indicators were used to evaluate the road safety performance of the provinces in Turkey. These indicators are the ratios between the number of persons killed in road traffic accidents (1) and the number of accidents (2) (nominators) and their exposure to traffic risk (denominator). Population and the number of registered motor vehicles in the provinces were used as denominators individually. Spatial analyses were performed to the mean annual rate of deaths and to the number of fatal accidents that were calculated for the period of 2001-2006. Empirical Bayes smoothing was used to remove background noise from the raw death and accident rates because of the sparsely populated provinces and small number of accident and death rates of provinces. Global and local spatial autocorrelation analyses were performed to show whether the provinces with high rates of deaths-accidents show clustering or are located closer by chance. The spatial distribution of provinces with high rates of deaths and accidents was nonrandom and detected as clustered with significance of P<0.05 with spatial autocorrelation analyses. Regions with high concentration of fatal accidents and deaths were located in the provinces that contain the roads connecting the Istanbul, Ankara, and Antalya provinces. Accident and death rates were also modeled with some independent variables such as number of motor vehicles, length of roads, and so forth using geographically weighted regression analysis with forward step-wise elimination. The level of statistical significance was taken as P<0.05. Large differences were found between the rates of deaths and accidents according to denominators in the provinces. The geographically weighted regression analyses did significantly better predictions for both accident rates and death rates than did ordinary least regressions, as indicated by adjusted R(2) values. Geographically weighted regression provided values of 0.89-0.99 adjusted R(2) for death and accident rates, compared with 0.88-0.95, respectively, by ordinary least regressions. Geographically weighted regression has the potential to reveal local patterns in the spatial distribution of rates, which would be ignored by the ordinary least regression approach. The application of spatial analysis and modeling of accident statistics and death rates at provincial level in Turkey will help to identification of provinces with outstandingly high accident and death rates. This could help more efficient road safety management in Turkey.

A Police and Insurance Joint Management System Based on High Precision BDS/GPS Positioning

PubMed Central

Zuo, Wenwei; Guo, Chi; Liu, Jingnan; Peng, Xuan; Yang, Min

2018-01-01

Car ownership in China reached 194 million vehicles at the end of 2016. The traffic congestion index (TCI) exceeds 2.0 during rush hour in some cities. Inefficient processing for minor traffic accidents is considered to be one of the leading causes for road traffic jams. Meanwhile, the process after an accident is quite troublesome. The main reason is that it is almost always impossible to get the complete chain of evidence when the accident happens. Accordingly, a police and insurance joint management system is developed which is based on high precision BeiDou Navigation Satellite System (BDS)/Global Positioning System (GPS) positioning to process traffic accidents. First of all, an intelligent vehicle rearview mirror terminal is developed. The terminal applies a commonly used consumer electronic device with single frequency navigation. Based on the high precision BDS/GPS positioning algorithm, its accuracy can reach sub-meter level in the urban areas. More specifically, a kernel driver is built to realize the high precision positioning algorithm in an Android HAL layer. Thus the third-party application developers can call the general location Application Programming Interface (API) of the original standard Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) to get high precision positioning results. Therefore, the terminal can provide lane level positioning service for car users. Next, a remote traffic accident processing platform is built to provide big data analysis and management. According to the big data analysis of information collected by BDS high precision intelligent sense service, vehicle behaviors can be obtained. The platform can also automatically match and screen the data that uploads after an accident to achieve accurate reproduction of the scene. Thus, it helps traffic police and insurance personnel to complete remote responsibility identification and survey for the accident. Thirdly, a rapid processing flow is established in this article to meet the requirements to quickly handle traffic accidents. The traffic police can remotely identify accident responsibility and the insurance personnel can remotely survey an accident. Moreover, the police and insurance joint management system has been carried out in Wuhan, Central China’s Hubei Province, and Wuxi, Eastern China’s Jiangsu Province. In a word, a system is developed to obtain and analyze multisource data including precise positioning and visual information, and a solution is proposed for efficient processing of traffic accidents. PMID:29320406

A Police and Insurance Joint Management System Based on High Precision BDS/GPS Positioning.

PubMed

Zuo, Wenwei; Guo, Chi; Liu, Jingnan; Peng, Xuan; Yang, Min

2018-01-10

Car ownership in China reached 194 million vehicles at the end of 2016. The traffic congestion index (TCI) exceeds 2.0 during rush hour in some cities. Inefficient processing for minor traffic accidents is considered to be one of the leading causes for road traffic jams. Meanwhile, the process after an accident is quite troublesome. The main reason is that it is almost always impossible to get the complete chain of evidence when the accident happens. Accordingly, a police and insurance joint management system is developed which is based on high precision BeiDou Navigation Satellite System (BDS)/Global Positioning System (GPS) positioning to process traffic accidents. First of all, an intelligent vehicle rearview mirror terminal is developed. The terminal applies a commonly used consumer electronic device with single frequency navigation. Based on the high precision BDS/GPS positioning algorithm, its accuracy can reach sub-meter level in the urban areas. More specifically, a kernel driver is built to realize the high precision positioning algorithm in an Android HAL layer. Thus the third-party application developers can call the general location Application Programming Interface (API) of the original standard Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) to get high precision positioning results. Therefore, the terminal can provide lane level positioning service for car users. Next, a remote traffic accident processing platform is built to provide big data analysis and management. According to the big data analysis of information collected by BDS high precision intelligent sense service, vehicle behaviors can be obtained. The platform can also automatically match and screen the data that uploads after an accident to achieve accurate reproduction of the scene. Thus, it helps traffic police and insurance personnel to complete remote responsibility identification and survey for the accident. Thirdly, a rapid processing flow is established in this article to meet the requirements to quickly handle traffic accidents. The traffic police can remotely identify accident responsibility and the insurance personnel can remotely survey an accident. Moreover, the police and insurance joint management system has been carried out in Wuhan, Central China's Hubei Province, and Wuxi, Eastern China's Jiangsu Province. In a word, a system is developed to obtain and analyze multisource data including precise positioning and visual information, and a solution is proposed for efficient processing of traffic accidents.

FASTGRASS: A mechanistic model for the prediction of Xe, I, Cs, Te, Ba, and Sr release from nuclear fuel under normal and severe-accident conditions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rest, J.; Zawadzki, S.A.

The primary physical/chemical models that form the basis of the FASTGRASS mechanistic computer model for calculating fission-product release from nuclear fuel are described. Calculated results are compared with test data and the major mechanisms affecting the transport of fission products during steady-state and accident conditions are identified.

90Sr specific activity of teeth of abandoned cattle after the Fukushima accident - teeth as an indicator of environmental pollution.

PubMed

Koarai, Kazuma; Kino, Yasushi; Takahashi, Atsushi; Suzuki, Toshihiko; Shimizu, Yoshinaka; Chiba, Mirei; Osaka, Ken; Sasaki, Keiichi; Urushihara, Yusuke; Fukuda, Tomokazu; Isogai, Emiko; Yamashiro, Hideaki; Oka, Toshitaka; Sekine, Tsutomu; Fukumoto, Manabu; Shinoda, Hisashi

2018-03-01

90 Sr specific activity in the teeth of young cattle that were abandoned in Kawauchi village and Okuma town located in the former evacuation areas of the Fukushima-Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FNPP) accident were measured. Additionally, specific activity in contaminated surface soils sampled from the same area was measured. (1) All cattle teeth examined were contaminated with 90 Sr. The specific activity, however, varied depending on the developmental stage of the teeth during the FNPP accident; teeth that had started development before the accident exhibited comparatively lower values, while teeth developed mainly after the accident showed higher values. (2) Values of 90 Sr-specific activity in teeth formed after the FNPP accident were higher than those of the bulk soil but similar to those in the exchangeable fraction (water and CH 3 COONH 4 soluble fractions) of the soil. The findings suggest that 90 Sr was incorporated into the teeth during the process of development, and that 90 Sr in the soluble and/or leachable fractions of the soil might migrate into teeth and contribute to the amount of 90 Sr in the teeth. Thus, the concentration of 90 Sr in teeth formed after the FNPP accident might reflect the extent of 90 Sr pollution in the environment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

75 FR 82335 - Airworthiness Directives; APEX Aircraft Model CAP 10 Airplanes

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-12-30

... Model CAP 10 Airplanes AGENCY: Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), Department of Transportation (DOT... accident occurred to a CAP 10C, in which the pilot lost control of the aeroplane. The following... condition for the specified products. The MCAI states: A fatal accident occurred to a CAP 10C, in which the...

World commercial aircraft accidents: 1st edition, 1946--1991

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kimura, C.Y.

1992-02-01

This report is a compilation of all accidents world-wide involving aircraft in commercial service which resulted in the loss of the airframe or one or more fatality, or both. This information has been gathered in order to present a complete inventory of commercial aircraft accidents. Events involving military action, sabotage, terrorist bombings, hijackings, suicides, and industrial ground accidents are included within this list. This report is organized into six chapters. The first chapter is the introduction. The second chapter contains the compilation of accidents involving world commercial jet aircraft from 1952 to 1991. The third chapter presents a compilation ofmore » accidents involving world commercial turboprop aircraft from 1952 to 1991. The fourth chapter presents a compilation of accidents involving world commercial pistonprop aircraft with four or more engines from 1946 to 1991. Each accident compilation or database in chapters two, three and four is presented in chronological order. Each accident is presented with information the following categories: date of accident, airline or operator and its flight number (if known), type of flight, type of aircraft and model, aircraft registration number, construction number/manufacturers serial number, aircraft damage resulting from accident, accident flight phase, accident location, number of fatalities, number of occupants, references used to compile the information, and finally cause, remarks, or description (brief) of the accident. The fifth chapter presents a list of all commercial aircraft accidents for all aircraft types with 100 or more fatalities in order of decreasing number of fatalities. Chapter six presents the commercial aircraft accidents for all aircraft types by flight phase. Future editions of this report will have additional follow-on chapters which will present other studies still in preparation at the time this edition was being prepared.« less

Fukushima Daiichi Unit 1 Uncertainty Analysis-Exploration of Core Melt Progression Uncertain Parameters-Volume II.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Denman, Matthew R.; Brooks, Dusty Marie

Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) has conducted an uncertainty analysi s (UA) on the Fukushima Daiichi unit (1F1) accident progression wit h the MELCOR code. Volume I of the 1F1 UA discusses the physical modeling details and time history results of the UA. Volume II of the 1F1 UA discusses the statistical viewpoint. The model used was developed for a previous accident reconstruction investigation jointly sponsored by the US Department of Energy (DOE) and Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). The goal of this work was to perform a focused evaluation of uncertainty in core damage progression behavior and its effect on keymore » figures - of - merit (e.g., hydrogen production, fraction of intact fuel, vessel lower head failure) and in doing so assess the applicability of traditional sensitivity analysis techniques .« less

Research on sudden environmental pollution public service platform construction based on WebGIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bi, T. P.; Gao, D. Y.; Zhong, X. Y.

2016-08-01

In order to actualize the social sharing and service of the emergency-response information for sudden pollution accidents, the public can share the risk source information service, dangerous goods control technology service and so on, The SQL Server and ArcSDE software are used to establish a spatial database to restore all kinds of information including risk sources, hazardous chemicals and handling methods in case of accidents. Combined with Chinese atmospheric environmental assessment standards, the SCREEN3 atmospheric dispersion model and one-dimensional liquid diffusion model are established to realize the query of related information and the display of the diffusion effect under B/S structure. Based on the WebGIS technology, C#.Net language is used to develop the sudden environmental pollution public service platform. As a result, the public service platform can make risk assessments and provide the best emergency processing services.

Psychosocial service needs of pediatric transport accident survivors: Using clinical data-mining to establish demographic and service usage characteristics.

PubMed

Manguy, Alys-Marie; Joubert, Lynette; Bansemer, Leah

2016-09-01

The objectives in this article are the exploration of demographic and service usage data gained through clinical data mining audit and suggesting recommendations for social work service delivery model and future research. The method is clinical data-mining audit of 100 sequentially sampled cases gathering quantitative demographic and service usage data. Descriptive analysis of file audit data raised interesting trends with potential to inform service delivery and usage; the key areas of the results included patient demographics, family involvement and impact, and child safety and risk issues. Transport accidents involving children often include other family members. Care planning must take into account psychosocial issues including patient and family emotional responses, availability of primary carers, and other practical needs that may impact on recovery and discharge planning. This study provides evidence to plan for further research and development of more integrated models of care.

Overview of the NASA Systems Approach to Crashworthiness Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jones, Lisa E.

2002-01-01

The NASA Aviation Safety Program was developed in response to the federal government's goal to reduce the fatal accident rate for aviation by 80% within 10 years. Accident Mitigation is a primary element of the Aviation Safety Program. The overall Accident Mitigation goal is to provide technology to the air transport industry to enable a decrease in the rate of fatalities and injury from crash loads and from in-flight and post-crash explosion and/or fire. Accident Mitigation is divided into two main elements - Fire Prevention and Systems Approach to Crashworthiness. The Systems Approach to Crashworthiness goal is to develop and promote technology that will increase the human survival rate or reduce the fatality rate in survivable accidents. The technical background and planning, selected technical activities, and summary of future efforts will be presented in this paper.

Traffic accidents on expressways: new threat to China.

PubMed

Zhao, Jinbao; Deng, Wei

2012-01-01

As China is building one of the largest expressway systems in the world, expressway safety problems have become serious concerns to China. This article analyzed the trends in expressway accidents in China from 1995 to 2010 and examined the characteristics of these accidents. Expressway accident data were obtained from the Annual Report for Road Traffic Accidents published by the Ministry of Public Security of China. Expressway mileage data were obtained from the National Statistics Yearbook published by the National Bureau of Statistics of China. Descriptive statistical analyses were conducted based on these data. Expressway deaths increased by 10.2-fold from 616 persons in 1995 to 6300 persons in 2010, and the average annual increase was 17.9 percent over the past 15 years, and the overall other road traffic deaths was -0.33 percent. China's expressway mileage accounted for only 1.85 percent of highway mileage driven in 2010, but expressway deaths made up 13.54 percent of highway traffic deaths. The average annual accident lethality rate [accident deaths/(accident deaths + accident injuries)] for China's expressways was 27.76 percent during the period 1995 to 2010, which was 1.33 times higher than the accident lethality rate of highway traffic accidents. China's government should pay attention to expressway construction and safety interventions during the rapid development period of expressways. Related causes, such as geographic patterns, speeding, weather conditions, and traffic flow composition, need to be studied in the near future. An effective and scientific expressway safety management services system, composed of a speed monitoring system, warning system, and emergency rescue system, should be established in developed and underdeveloped provinces in China to improve safety on expressway.

NASA Medical Response to Human Spacecraft Accidents

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Patlach, Robert

2010-01-01

Manned space flight is risky business. Accidents have occurred and may occur in the future. NASA's manned space flight programs, with all their successes, have had three fatal accidents, one at the launch pad and two in flight. The Apollo fire and the Challenger and Columbia accidents resulted in a loss of seventeen crewmembers. Russia's manned space flight programs have had three fatal accidents, one ground-based and two in flight. These accidents resulted in the loss of five crewmembers. Additionally, manned spacecraft have encountered numerous close calls with potential for disaster. The NASA Johnson Space Center Flight Safety Office has documented more than 70 spacecraft incidents, many of which could have become serious accidents. At the Johnson Space Center (JSC), medical contingency personnel are assigned to a Mishap Investigation Team. The team deploys to the accident site to gather and preserve evidence for the Accident Investigation Board. The JSC Medical Operations Branch has developed a flight surgeon accident response training class to capture the lessons learned from the Columbia accident. This presentation will address the NASA Mishap Investigation Team's medical objectives, planned response, and potential issues that could arise subsequent to a manned spacecraft accident. Educational Objectives are to understand the medical objectives and issues confronting the Mishap Investigation Team medical personnel subsequent to a human space flight accident.

How Thirty Years of Focused Safety Development has Influenced Injury Outcome in Volvo Cars

PubMed Central

Isaksson-Hellman, I.; Norin, H.

2005-01-01

This study points out how thirty years of focused safety development has produced a steady decrease in injury rates in car crashes, strongly influenced by a well-structured process. An important part of this process is the knowledge gained by accident research based on collection of data from real world crashes, and the feedback of this research into development work. Statistical analysis shows that the MAIS 2+ injury rate for the most recent car models has decreased by two-thirds compared to the rate for the oldest car models. Calculation of the effect of specific development steps will be given as examples. PMID:16179140

Application of Multivariate Modeling for Radiation Injury Assessment: A Proof of Concept (Radiation Injury Algorithms)

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-01-01

accuracy by developing dose estimation formulas derived from hematological indices from Chernobyl accident patients measured from 4 – 8 d post...448-54, 2005. [32] A. E. Baranov, A. K. Guskova, N. M. Nadejina, and V. Yu. Nugis,― Chernobyl experience: biological indicators of exposure to

50 CFR 401.17 - Safety and accident prevention.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... 50 Wildlife and Fisheries 9 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Safety and accident prevention. 401.17 Section 401.17 Wildlife and Fisheries JOINT REGULATIONS (UNITED STATES FISH AND WILDLIFE SERVICE... FISHERIES CONSERVATION, DEVELOPMENT AND ENHANCEMENT § 401.17 Safety and accident prevention. In the...

Analysis of multiple tank car releases in train accidents.

PubMed

Liu, Xiang; Liu, Chang; Hong, Yili

2017-10-01

There are annually over two million carloads of hazardous materials transported by rail in the United States. The American railroads use large blocks of tank cars to transport petroleum crude oil and other flammable liquids from production to consumption sites. Being different from roadway transport of hazardous materials, a train accident can potentially result in the derailment and release of multiple tank cars, which may result in significant consequences. The prior literature predominantly assumes that the occurrence of multiple tank car releases in a train accident is a series of independent Bernoulli processes, and thus uses the binomial distribution to estimate the total number of tank car releases given the number of tank cars derailing or damaged. This paper shows that the traditional binomial model can incorrectly estimate multiple tank car release probability by magnitudes in certain circumstances, thereby significantly affecting railroad safety and risk analysis. To bridge this knowledge gap, this paper proposes a novel, alternative Correlated Binomial (CB) model that accounts for the possible correlations of multiple tank car releases in the same train. We test three distinct correlation structures in the CB model, and find that they all outperform the conventional binomial model based on empirical tank car accident data. The analysis shows that considering tank car release correlations would result in a significantly improved fit of the empirical data than otherwise. Consequently, it is prudent to consider alternative modeling techniques when analyzing the probability of multiple tank car releases in railroad accidents. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Private Sector Involvement in Urban Transportation: Case Studies

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1984-07-01

This report describes the development of formulas which predict the severity of accidents at public rail-highway crossings. They employ the previously developed DOT accident prediction formula, U.S. DOT-AAR National Rail-Highway Crossing Inventory, a...

Reactor Safety Gap Evaluation of Accident Tolerant Components and Severe Accident Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Farmer, Mitchell T.; Bunt, R.; Corradini, M.

The overall objective of this study was to conduct a technology gap evaluation on accident tolerant components and severe accident analysis methodologies with the goal of identifying any data and/or knowledge gaps that may exist, given the current state of light water reactor (LWR) severe accident research, and additionally augmented by insights obtained from the Fukushima accident. The ultimate benefit of this activity is that the results can be used to refine the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Reactor Safety Technology (RST) research and development (R&D) program plan to address key knowledge gaps in severe accident phenomena and analyses that affectmore » reactor safety and that are not currently being addressed by the industry or the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC).« less

Predictive factors for acute stress disorder and posttraumatic stress disorder after motor vehicle accidents.

PubMed

Yaşan, Aziz; Guzel, Aslan; Tamam, Yusuf; Ozkan, Mustafa

2009-01-01

Since traffic accidents are more common in developing countries than in developed countries, we aimed to investigate the association of several factors with the development and persistence of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) after traffic accidents. In the study,95 participants with injuries from traffic accidents were evaluated at 4 different times: in the beginning, and after 3, 6 and 12 months. During the first evaluation, 41.1% (39) of our participants had acute stress disorder (ASD). It was found that lower perceived social support (OR = 0.0908, 95% CI = 0.834-0.989, p = 0.027) and higher peritraumatic dissociative experience scores (OR = 1.332, 95% CI = 1.170-1.516, p < 0.001) were significant predictors of ASD. In the evaluations after 3, 6 and 12 months after the accident, we found PTSD affected 29.8, 23.1 and 17.9% of the participants, respectively. Although limitations at work and in social life after a traffic accident were not related to PTSD at 3 months (OR = 122.43, 95% CI = 0.000, p = 0.999) or at 6 months (OR = 63.438, 95% CI = 0.529-76.059, p = 0.089), limitations at work and in social life were predictors of PTSD at 12 months (OR = 155.514, 95% CI = 2.321-104.22, p = 0.019). The persistence of PTSD at the 12-month evaluation is related to ASD, limitations in work and social life, and lower social support scores. In developing countries like Turkey, long-term PTSD is commonly seen after traffic accidents. 2009 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Interview protocols and ergonomics checklist for analysing overexertion back accidents among nursing personnel.

PubMed

Engkvist, I L; Hagberg, M; Wigaeus-Hjelm, E; Menckel, E; Ekenvall, L

1995-06-01

No documented strategy, including preventive strategies, for systematic investigation of overexertion back accidents among nursing personnel has yet been published. One aim of the present study was to develop standardized instruments for the systematic investigation of back accidents among nursing personnel in order to develop preventive strategies. Another aim was to produce a screening tool that could easily be used for identifying potential overexertion back accident hazards. Two structured interview protocols were developed, one for the injured person and one for the supervisor. An ergonomics checklist was designed for the most important spaces according to accident statistics: patient's room, corridor, toilet, and also one for 'other space', eg X-ray and treatment rooms. The instruments were developed by frequent discussions and adjustments in a task force of researchers and occupational health personnel. The protocols were tested in two steps before a final version was established. The construct validity and interobserver reliability of the checklist were tested by ten ergonomists, who checked a patient's room, a toilet and a corridor with some known hazards. The constructed validity agreement was 90% in 19 of 26 items in the checklist. The interobserver reliability had the same figures as the validity for all items in the checklist. The interview protocols and checklist appear to be suitable for systematic investigation of overexertion back accidents.

'Fatalism', accident causation and prevention: issues for health promotion from an exploratory study in a Yoruba town, Nigeria.

PubMed

Dixey, R A

1999-04-01

As countries experience the 'epidemiological transition' with a relative decline in infectious diseases, accident rates tend to increase, particularly road traffic accidents. The health promotion interventions intended to prevent or minimize the consequences of accidents have been developed in predominantly Western, industrialized countries. Although some of these solutions have been applied with success to less developed countries, there are also good reasons why such solutions are ineffective when tried in a different context. Health promotion as developed in the West has a particular ideological bias, being framed within a secular, individualist and rationalist culture. Different cosmologies exist outside this culture, often described as 'fatalist' by Western commentators and as obstructing change. Changing these cosmologies or worldviews may not fit with the ethic of paying due respect to the cultural traditions of the 'target group'. Health promotion is therefore faced with a dilemma. In addition to different worldviews, the different levels of development also mean that solutions formulated in richer countries do not suit poorer countries. This paper uses a small exploratory study in a Yoruba town in Nigeria to examine these points. Interviews with key informants were held in March 1994 in Igbo-Ora and data were extracted from hospital records. Levels of accidents from available records are noted and people's ideas about accident prevention are discussed. Recommendations as to the way forward are then proposed.

A methodology for modeling regional terrorism risk.

PubMed

Chatterjee, Samrat; Abkowitz, Mark D

2011-07-01

Over the past decade, terrorism risk has become a prominent consideration in protecting the well-being of individuals and organizations. More recently, there has been interest in not only quantifying terrorism risk, but also placing it in the context of an all-hazards environment in which consideration is given to accidents and natural hazards, as well as intentional acts. This article discusses the development of a regional terrorism risk assessment model designed for this purpose. The approach taken is to model terrorism risk as a dependent variable, expressed in expected annual monetary terms, as a function of attributes of population concentration and critical infrastructure. This allows for an assessment of regional terrorism risk in and of itself, as well as in relation to man-made accident and natural hazard risks, so that mitigation resources can be allocated in an effective manner. The adopted methodology incorporates elements of two terrorism risk modeling approaches (event-based models and risk indicators), producing results that can be utilized at various jurisdictional levels. The validity, strengths, and limitations of the model are discussed in the context of a case study application within the United States. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

Understanding transit accidents using the National Transit Database and the role of Transit Intelligent Vehicle Initiative Technology in reducing accidents

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2004-06-01

This report documents the results of bus accident data analysis using the 2002 National Transit Database (NTD) and discusses the potential of using advanced technology being studied and developed under the U.S. Department of Transportations (U.S. ...

Accident Avoidance Skill Training and Performance Testing. Final Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hatterick, G. Richard; Barthurst, James R.

A two-phased study was conducted to determine the feasibility of training drivers to acquire skills needed to avoid critical conflict motor vehicle accidents, and to develop the procedures and materials necessary for such training. Basic data were derived from indepth accident investigations and task analyses of driver behavior. Principal…

A classification on human factor accident/incident of China civil aviation in recent twelve years.

PubMed

Luo, Xiao-li

2004-10-01

To study human factor accident/incident occurred during 1990-2001 using new classification standard. The human factor accident/incident classification standard is developed on the basis of Reason's Model, combining with CAAC's traditional classifying method, and applied to the classified statistical analysis for 361 flying incidents and 35 flight accidents of China civil aviation, which is induced by human factors and occurred from 1990 to 2001. 1) the incident percentage of taxi and cruise is higher than that of takeoff, climb and descent. 2) The dominating type of flight incidents is diverging of runway, overrunning, near-miss, tail/wingtip/engine strike and ground obstacle impacting. 3) The top three accidents are out of control caused by crew, mountain collision and over runway. 4) Crew's basic operating skill is lower than what we imagined, the mostly representation is poor correcting ability when flight error happened. 5) Crew errors can be represented by incorrect control, regulation and procedure violation, disorientation and diverging percentage of correct flight level. The poor CRM skill is the dominant factor impacting China civil aviation safety, this result has a coincidence with previous study, but there is much difference and distinct characteristic in top incident phase, the type of crew error and behavior performance compared with that of advanced countries. We should strengthen CRM training for all of pilots aiming at the Chinese pilot behavior characteristic in order to improve the safety level of China civil aviation.

Professional experience and traffic accidents/near-miss accidents among truck drivers.

PubMed

Girotto, Edmarlon; Andrade, Selma Maffei de; González, Alberto Durán; Mesas, Arthur Eumann

2016-10-01

To investigate the relationship between the time working as a truck driver and the report of involvement in traffic accidents or near-miss accidents. A cross-sectional study was performed with truck drivers transporting products from the Brazilian grain harvest to the Port of Paranaguá, Paraná, Brazil. The drivers were interviewed regarding sociodemographic characteristics, working conditions, behavior in traffic and involvement in accidents or near-miss accidents in the previous 12 months. Subsequently, the participants answered a self-applied questionnaire on substance use. The time of professional experience as drivers was categorized in tertiles. Statistical analyses were performed through the construction of models adjusted by multinomial regression to assess the relationship between the length of experience as a truck driver and the involvement in accidents or near-miss accidents. This study included 665 male drivers with an average age of 42.2 (±11.1) years. Among them, 7.2% and 41.7% of the drivers reported involvement in accidents and near-miss accidents, respectively. In fully adjusted analysis, the 3rd tertile of professional experience (>22years) was shown to be inversely associated with involvement in accidents (odds ratio [OR] 0.29; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.16-0.52) and near-miss accidents (OR 0.17; 95% CI 0.05-0.53). The 2nd tertile of professional experience (11-22 years) was inversely associated with involvement in accidents (OR 0.63; 95% CI 0.40-0.98). An evident relationship was observed between longer professional experience and a reduction in reporting involvement in accidents and near-miss accidents, regardless of age, substance use, working conditions and behavior in traffic. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Development of South Dakota accident reduction factors

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1998-08-01

This report offers the methodology and findings of the first project to develop Accident Reduction Factors (ARFs) and Severity Reduction Ratios (SRRs) for the state of South Dakota. The ARFs and SRRs of this project focused on Hazard Elimination and ...

[A spatially explicit analysis of traffic accidents involving pedestrians and cyclists in Berlin].

PubMed

Lakes, Tobia

2017-12-01

In many German cities and counties, sustainable mobility concepts that strengthen pedestrian and cyclist traffic are promoted. From the perspectives of urban development, traffic planning and public healthcare, a spatially differentiated analysis of traffic accident data is decisive. 1) The identification of spatial and temporal patterns of the distribution of accidents involving cyclists and pedestrians, 2) the identification of hotspots and exploration of possible underlying causes and 3) the critical discussion of benefits and challenges of the results and the derivation of conclusions. Spatio-temporal distributions of data from accident statistics in Berlin involving pedestrians and cyclists from 2011 to 2015 were analysed with geographic information systems (GIS). While the total number of accidents remains relatively stable for pedestrian and cyclist accidents, the spatial distribution analysis shows, however, that there are significant spatial clusters (hotspots) of traffic accidents with a strong concentration in the inner city area. In a critical discussion, the benefits of geographic concepts are identified, such as spatially explicit health data (in this case traffic accident data), the importance of the integration of other data sources for the evaluation of the health impact of areas (traffic accident statistics of the police), and the possibilities and limitations of spatial-temporal data analysis (spatial point-density analyses) for the derivation of decision-supported recommendations and for the evaluation of policy measures of health prevention and of health-relevant urban development.

[Sports accidents: 1963-1973 statistics].

PubMed

Fasler, S

1976-01-01

Every year, the Swiss Accident Insurance Administration is paying a considerable amount of money for sports accidents. From 1963 to 1973 the number of these accidents has increased more markedly than other types of accidents. Different tendencies can be observed in the different types of sports: skiing accidents have, after a long period of retrogression until 1973, shown a noticeable augmentation again. Football accidents and accidents in other types of sports have on the other hand increased year by year. Mountaineering and aquatic sports often result in fatal accidents. The numerous preventive measures in skiing accidents have obviously been successful. Not only the fractures have decreased, but also the average number of days where sickness benefit was paid. Next to the traffic accidents, the skiing accidents are the most expensive ones. The nature of the healing cost in sports accidents has changed during the period from 1967 to 1972, depending on the different types of sports. In particular, hospital costs have changed considerably. The number of medical consultations per accident has decreased. Payment of sickness benefit has followed the development of the salaries on the one hand and the modifications of the number of lost days on the other. Finally, the costs of the annuities show more or less the same tendency as the ones for sickness benefit. A very gross estimation on the economical losses through sports accidents in Switzerland makes us believe that the direct and indirect costs actually amount to more than one thousand millions of Swiss Francs per year.

Machine-related injuries in the US mining industry and priorities for safety research.

PubMed

Ruff, Todd; Coleman, Patrick; Martini, Laura

2011-03-01

Researchers at the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health studied mining accidents that involved a worker entangled in, struck by, or in contact with machinery or equipment in motion. The motivation for this study came from the large number of severe accidents, i.e. accidents resulting in a fatality or permanent disability, that are occurring despite available interventions. Accident descriptions were taken from an accident database maintained by the United States Department of Labor, Mine Safety and Health Administration, and 562 accidents that occurred during 2000-2007 fit the search criteria. Machine-related accidents accounted for 41% of all severe accidents in the mining industry during this period. Machinery most often involved in these accidents included conveyors, rock bolting machines, milling machines and haulage equipment such as trucks and loaders. The most common activities associated with these accidents were operation of the machine and maintenance and repair. The current methods to safeguard workers near machinery include mechanical guarding around moving components, lockout/tagout of machine power during maintenance and backup alarms for mobile equipment. To decrease accidents further, researchers recommend additional efforts in the development of new control technologies, training materials and dissemination of information on best practices.

[Accident cause masculinity?--Gender-related issues of accident victims between prevention and coping in Kaiserreich and Weimarer Republik].

PubMed

Knoll-Jung, Sebastian

2015-01-01

Occupational accidents in industrial workplaces are a specific health problem for man. Therefore it seems adequate to use masculinities as a category of research in this field. For the Kaiserreich and the Weimarer Republik it shows that male workers relating to their danger awareness and behavior, prevention, accident causes and coping strategies are settled in an area of conflict between a hard workplace environment and the family. On the basis of health practices of the accident victims it appears that there are different forms of labor masculinities. They have an important influence on all levels of an occupational accident from the endangerment to the success of the treatment. Through a critical use of the category academic void can be shown and alternative explanatory models can be offered.

Test-Analysis Correlation for Space Shuttle External Tank Foam Impacting RCC Wing Leading Edge Component Panels

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lyle, Karen H.

2008-01-01

The Space Shuttle Columbia Accident Investigation Board recommended that NASA develop, validate, and maintain a modeling tool capable of predicting the damage threshold for debris impacts on the Space Shuttle Reinforced Carbon-Carbon (RCC) wing leading edge and nosecap assembly. The results presented in this paper are one part of a multi-level approach that supported the development of the predictive tool used to recertify the shuttle for flight following the Columbia Accident. The assessment of predictive capability was largely based on test analysis comparisons for simpler component structures. This paper provides comparisons of finite element simulations with test data for external tank foam debris impacts onto 6-in. square RCC flat panels. Both quantitative displacement and qualitative damage assessment correlations are provided. The comparisons show good agreement and provided the Space Shuttle Program with confidence in the predictive tool.

Rate theory scenarios study on fission gas behavior of U 3 Si 2 under LOCA conditions in LWRs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Miao, Yinbin; Gamble, Kyle A.; Andersson, David

Fission gas behavior of U3Si2 under various loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) conditions in light water reactors (LWRs) was simulated using rate theory. A rate theory model for U3Si2 that covers both steady-state operation and power transients was developed for the GRASS-SST code based on existing research reactor/ion irradiation experimental data and theoretical predictions of density functional theory (DFT) calculations. The steady-state and LOCA condition parameters were either directly provided or inspired by BISON simulations. Due to the absence of in-pile experiment data for U3Si2's fuel performance under LWR conditions at this stage of accident tolerant fuel (ATF) development, a variety ofmore » LOCA scenarios were taken into consideration to comprehensively and conservatively evaluate the fission gas behavior of U3Si2 during a LOCA.« less

Determination of influence factors and accident rates for the Armored Tractor/Safe Secure Trailer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Phillips, J.S.; Clauss, D.B.; Blower, D.F.

1994-04-01

Operating environments, such as road type, road location, and time of day, play an important role in the observed accident rates of heavy trucks used in general commerce. These same factors influence the accident rate of the Armored Tractor/Safe Secure Trailer (AT/SST) used by the Department of Energy to transport hazardous cargos within the continental United States. This report discusses the development of accident rate influence factors. These factors, based on heavy trucks used in general commerce, are used to modify the observed overall AT/SST accident rate to account for the different operating environments.

[The medical organizational aspects of decreasing of preventable mortality in the case of traffic accident in municipal district].

PubMed

Voloshina, L V; Plutnitskiĭ, A N

2010-01-01

The article deals with the results of the study of such actual issue as decreasing of preventable mortality in the case of traffic accident in municipal district. The analysis was based on the mortality statistical data and the expertise of causes of lethal outcomes of traffic accidents. The results are used to develop the measures of improving the organization and quality of medical care of victims of road accident on the pre-hospital and hospital stages on the level of municipal health care to decrease the human losses caused by traffic accident.

Fatal aviation accidents in Lower Saxony from 1979 to 1996.

PubMed

Ast, F W; Kernbach-Wighton, G; Kampmann, H; Koops, E; Püschel, K; Tröger, H D; Kleemann, W J

2001-06-01

So far no national or regional studies have been published in Germany regarding the number of fatal aviation accidents and results of autopsy findings. Therefore, we evaluated all fatal aviation accidents occurring in Lower Saxony from 1979 to 1996. A total of 96 aviation accidents occurred in this period involving 73 aeroplanes. The crashes resulted in the death of 154 people ranging in age from 19 to 68 years. The greatest number of victims in a single crash of an aircraft was (n=7). Other types of fatal accidents were crashes of aircraft and helicopter while on the ground (n=5), hot-air balloons (n=2), parachutes (n=10), hang glider accidents (n=5) and the striking of a bystander by a model airplane. Autopsies were performed on 68 of the 154 victims (44.2%), including 39 of the 73 pilots (53.4%). Some of the autopsies yielded findings relevant to the cause of the accident: gunshot wounds, the presence of alcohol or drugs in blood and preexisting diseases. Our findings emphasize the need for autopsy on all aviation accident victims, especially pilots, as this is the only reliable method to uncover all factors contributing to an accident.

Accident rates and the impact of daylight saving time transitions.

PubMed

Robb, David; Barnes, Thomas

2018-02-01

One-third of nations have adopted some form of Daylight Saving Time (DST). Associated costs and benefits include impacts on accident rates. Using data from 12.6 million accident claims in New Zealand during 2005-2016, we model accident rates as a function of various date-based predictors including days before/after the start and end of DST, holidays, day of week, and month of year. This is the first study to consider multiple accident categories (Road, Work, Falls and Home & Community), and the first in the southern hemisphere. The start of DST is associated with significantly higher rates of road accidents (first day +16% and second day +12%). Evidence that accident rates for Falls and Home & Community decline (increase) prior to the start (end) of DST suggest potential behavioural adaption from anticipating the change. While Work accidents show limited impact from DST changes, they exhibit a significant decline over the course of the week (Friday 13% lower than Monday), whereas Road accidents exhibit a significant increase (Friday 19% higher than Monday). Our results have implications for both DST implementation and policy. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Econometric models of road use, accidents, and road investment decisions. Volume 2 : an econometric model of car ownership, road use, accidents, and their severity (Essay 3)

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1999-11-01

Using a fairly large cross-section/time-series data base, covering all provinces of Norway and all months between January 1973 and December 1994, we estimate non-linear (Box-Cox) regression equations explaining aggregate car ownership, road use, seat...

Off-road truck-related accidents in U.S. mines

PubMed Central

Dindarloo, Saeid R.; Pollard, Jonisha P.; Siami-Irdemoosa, Elnaz

2016-01-01

Introduction Off-road trucks are one of the major sources of equipment-related accidents in the U.S. mining industries. A systematic analysis of all off-road truck-related accidents, injuries, and illnesses, which are reported and published by the Mine Safety and Health Administration (MSHA), is expected to provide practical insights for identifying the accident patterns and trends in the available raw database. Therefore, appropriate safety management measures can be administered and implemented based on these accident patterns/trends. Methods A hybrid clustering-classification methodology using K-means clustering and gene expression programming (GEP) is proposed for the analysis of severe and non-severe off-road truck-related injuries at U.S. mines. Using the GEP sub-model, a small subset of the 36 recorded attributes was found to be correlated to the severity level. Results Given the set of specified attributes, the clustering sub-model was able to cluster the accident records into 5 distinct groups. For instance, the first cluster contained accidents related to minerals processing mills and coal preparation plants (91%). More than two-thirds of the victims in this cluster had less than 5 years of job experience. This cluster was associated with the highest percentage of severe injuries (22 severe accidents, 3.4%). Almost 50% of all accidents in this cluster occurred at stone operations. Similarly, the other four clusters were characterized to highlight important patterns that can be used to determine areas of focus for safety initiatives. Conclusions The identified clusters of accidents may play a vital role in the prevention of severe injuries in mining. Further research into the cluster attributes and identified patterns will be necessary to determine how these factors can be mitigated to reduce the risk of severe injuries. Practical application Analyzing injury data using data mining techniques provides some insight into attributes that are associated with high accuracies for predicting injury severity. PMID:27620937

Off-road truck-related accidents in U.S. mines.

PubMed

Dindarloo, Saeid R; Pollard, Jonisha P; Siami-Irdemoosa, Elnaz

2016-09-01

Off-road trucks are one of the major sources of equipment-related accidents in the U.S. mining industries. A systematic analysis of all off-road truck-related accidents, injuries, and illnesses, which are reported and published by the Mine Safety and Health Administration (MSHA), is expected to provide practical insights for identifying the accident patterns and trends in the available raw database. Therefore, appropriate safety management measures can be administered and implemented based on these accident patterns/trends. A hybrid clustering-classification methodology using K-means clustering and gene expression programming (GEP) is proposed for the analysis of severe and non-severe off-road truck-related injuries at U.S. mines. Using the GEP sub-model, a small subset of the 36 recorded attributes was found to be correlated to the severity level. Given the set of specified attributes, the clustering sub-model was able to cluster the accident records into 5 distinct groups. For instance, the first cluster contained accidents related to minerals processing mills and coal preparation plants (91%). More than two-thirds of the victims in this cluster had less than 5years of job experience. This cluster was associated with the highest percentage of severe injuries (22 severe accidents, 3.4%). Almost 50% of all accidents in this cluster occurred at stone operations. Similarly, the other four clusters were characterized to highlight important patterns that can be used to determine areas of focus for safety initiatives. The identified clusters of accidents may play a vital role in the prevention of severe injuries in mining. Further research into the cluster attributes and identified patterns will be necessary to determine how these factors can be mitigated to reduce the risk of severe injuries. Analyzing injury data using data mining techniques provides some insight into attributes that are associated with high accuracies for predicting injury severity. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd and National Safety Council. All rights reserved.

Investigation of Zircaloy-2 oxidation model for SFP accident analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nemoto, Yoshiyuki; Kaji, Yoshiyuki; Ogawa, Chihiro; Kondo, Keietsu; Nakashima, Kazuo; Kanazawa, Toru; Tojo, Masayuki

2017-05-01

The authors previously conducted thermogravimetric analyses on Zircaloy-2 in air. By using the thermogravimetric data, an oxidation model was constructed in this study so that it can be applied for the modeling of cladding degradation in spent fuel pool (SFP) severe accident condition. For its validation, oxidation tests of long cladding tube were conducted, and computational fluid dynamics analyses using the constructed oxidation model were proceeded to simulate the experiments. In the oxidation tests, high temperature thermal gradient along the cladding axis was applied and air flow rates in testing chamber were controlled to simulate hypothetical SFP accidents. The analytical outputs successfully reproduced the growth of oxide film and porous oxide layer on the claddings in oxidation tests, and validity of the oxidation model was proved. Influence of air flow rate for the oxidation behavior was thought negligible in the conditions investigated in this study.

Epidemiology of occupational accidents in iran based on social security organization database.

PubMed

Mehrdad, Ramin; Seifmanesh, Shahdokht; Chavoshi, Farzaneh; Aminian, Omid; Izadi, Nazanin

2014-01-01

Today, occupational accidents are one of the most important problems in industrial world. Due to lack of appropriate system for registration and reporting, there is no accurate statistics of occupational accidents all over the world especially in developing countries. The aim of this study is epidemiological assessment of occupational accidents in Iran. Information of available occupational accidents in Social Security Organization was extracted from accident reporting and registration forms. In this cross-sectional study, gender, age, economic activity, type of accident and injured body part in 22158 registered accidents during 2008 were described. The occupational accidents rate was 253 in 100,000 workers in 2008. 98.2% of injured workers were men. The mean age of injured workers was 32.07 ± 9.12 years. The highest percentage belonged to age group of 25-34 years old. In our study, most of the accidents occurred in basic metals industry, electrical and non-electrical machines and construction industry. Falling down from height and crush injury were the most prevalent accidents. Upper and lower extremities were the most common injured body parts. Due to the high rate of accidents in metal and construction industries, engineering controls, the use of appropriate protective equipment and safety worker training seems necessary.

Epidemiology of Occupational Accidents in Iran Based on Social Security Organization Database

PubMed Central

Mehrdad, Ramin; Seifmanesh, Shahdokht; Chavoshi, Farzaneh; Aminian, Omid; Izadi, Nazanin

2014-01-01

Background: Background: Today, occupational accidents are one of the most important problems in industrial world. Due to lack of appropriate system for registration and reporting, there is no accurate statistics of occupational accidents all over the world especially in developing countries. Objectives: The aim of this study is epidemiological assessment of occupational accidents in Iran. Materials and Methods: Information of available occupational accidents in Social Security Organization was extracted from accident reporting and registration forms. In this cross-sectional study, gender, age, economic activity, type of accident and injured body part in 22158 registered accidents during 2008 were described. Results: The occupational accidents rate was 253 in 100,000 workers in 2008. 98.2% of injured workers were men. The mean age of injured workers was 32.07 ± 9.12 years. The highest percentage belonged to age group of 25-34 years old. In our study, most of the accidents occurred in basic metals industry, electrical and non-electrical machines and construction industry. Falling down from height and crush injury were the most prevalent accidents. Upper and lower extremities were the most common injured body parts. Conclusion: Due to the high rate of accidents in metal and construction industries, engineering controls, the use of appropriate protective equipment and safety worker training seems necessary. PMID:24719699

Contributing factors in construction accidents.

PubMed

Haslam, R A; Hide, S A; Gibb, A G F; Gyi, D E; Pavitt, T; Atkinson, S; Duff, A R

2005-07-01

This overview paper draws together findings from previous focus group research and studies of 100 individual construction accidents. Pursuing issues raised by the focus groups, the accident studies collected qualitative information on the circumstances of each incident and the causal influences involved. Site based data collection entailed interviews with accident-involved personnel and their supervisor or manager, inspection of the accident location, and review of appropriate documentation. Relevant issues from the site investigations were then followed up with off-site stakeholders, including designers, manufacturers and suppliers. Levels of involvement of key factors in the accidents were: problems arising from workers or the work team (70% of accidents), workplace issues (49%), shortcomings with equipment (including PPE) (56%), problems with suitability and condition of materials (27%), and deficiencies with risk management (84%). Employing an ergonomics systems approach, a model is proposed, indicating the manner in which originating managerial, design and cultural factors shape the circumstances found in the work place, giving rise to the acts and conditions which, in turn, lead to accidents. It is argued that attention to the originating influences will be necessary for sustained improvement in construction safety to be achieved.

Probability analysis of multiple-tank-car release incidents in railway hazardous materials transportation.

PubMed

Liu, Xiang; Saat, Mohd Rapik; Barkan, Christopher P L

2014-07-15

Railroads play a key role in the transportation of hazardous materials in North America. Rail transport differs from highway transport in several aspects, an important one being that rail transport involves trains in which many railcars carrying hazardous materials travel together. By contrast to truck accidents, it is possible that a train accident may involve multiple hazardous materials cars derailing and releasing contents with consequently greater potential impact on human health, property and the environment. In this paper, a probabilistic model is developed to estimate the probability distribution of the number of tank cars releasing contents in a train derailment. Principal operational characteristics considered include train length, derailment speed, accident cause, position of the first car derailed, number and placement of tank cars in a train and tank car safety design. The effect of train speed, tank car safety design and tank car positions in a train were evaluated regarding the number of cars that release their contents in a derailment. This research provides insights regarding the circumstances affecting multiple-tank-car release incidents and potential strategies to reduce their occurrences. The model can be incorporated into a larger risk management framework to enable better local, regional and national safety management of hazardous materials transportation by rail. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A study of finite element modeling for simulation of vehicle rollover

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Zhigui; Liu, Changye; Lv, Juncheng; Jia, Ligang; Sun, Haichao; Chen, Tao

2017-04-01

At present, the automobile ownership has been a very large figure, and growing rapidly with the social progress and development. Automobile has been one of the most important transportation in people's life. Accordingly, there are a large number of fatalities and serious injuries in traffic accident every year. Vehicle safety has been paid more and more attentions in recent years. There are several kinds of traffic accidents including frontal crash, side crash, etc., while rollover crash is a special kind. The vehicle rollover has the lowest incidence in the all kinds of traffic accidents but has the highest rate of seriously injuries, most of which lead to death. For these reasons, it is very necessary to study the vehicle rollover crash. However, it's so hard that there are a small amount of literatures studying rollover due to its variety, large degree of freedom, and difficulty to repeat and control. The method to investigate rollover crash contains experiment, the finite element method and rigid-body-based models. The finite element method contains many advantages such as low cost, repeatability, detailed data and so on, but the limitation is obvious. A test and simulation has been accomplished to study the FEM for vehicle rollover crash particularly in this paper.

MELCOR computer code manuals

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Summers, R.M.; Cole, R.K. Jr.; Smith, R.C.

1995-03-01

MELCOR is a fully integrated, engineering-level computer code that models the progression of severe accidents in light water reactor nuclear power plants. MELCOR is being developed at Sandia National Laboratories for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission as a second-generation plant risk assessment tool and the successor to the Source Term Code Package. A broad spectrum of severe accident phenomena in both boiling and pressurized water reactors is treated in MELCOR in a unified framework. These include: thermal-hydraulic response in the reactor coolant system, reactor cavity, containment, and confinement buildings; core heatup, degradation, and relocation; core-concrete attack; hydrogen production, transport, andmore » combustion; fission product release and transport; and the impact of engineered safety features on thermal-hydraulic and radionuclide behavior. Current uses of MELCOR include estimation of severe accident source terms and their sensitivities and uncertainties in a variety of applications. This publication of the MELCOR computer code manuals corresponds to MELCOR 1.8.3, released to users in August, 1994. Volume 1 contains a primer that describes MELCOR`s phenomenological scope, organization (by package), and documentation. The remainder of Volume 1 contains the MELCOR Users Guides, which provide the input instructions and guidelines for each package. Volume 2 contains the MELCOR Reference Manuals, which describe the phenomenological models that have been implemented in each package.« less

The synergic role of sociotechnical and personal characteristics on work injuries in mines.

PubMed

Paul, P S; Maiti, J

2008-05-01

Occupational injuries in mines are attributed to many factors. In this study, an attempt was made to identify the various factors related to work injuries in mines and to estimate their effects on work injuries to mine workers. An accident path model was developed to estimate the pattern and strength of relationships amongst the personal and sociotechnical variables in accident/injury occurrences. The input data for the model were the correlation matrix of 18 variables, which were collected from the case study mines. The case study results showed that there are sequential interactions amongst the sociotechnical and personal factors leading to accidents/injuries in mines. Amongst the latent endogenous constructs, job dissatisfaction and safe work behaviour show a significant positive and negative direct relationship with work injury, respectively. However, the construct safety environment has a significant negative indirect relationship with work injury. The safety environment is negatively affected by work hazards and positively affected by social support. The safety environment also shows a significant negative relationship with job stress and job dissatisfaction. However, negative personality has no significant direct or indirect effect on work injury, but it has a significant negative relationship with safe work behaviour. The endogenous construct negative personality is positively influenced by job stress and negatively influenced by social support.

[The significance of the results of crash-tests with the use of the models of the pedestrians' lower extremities for the prevention of the traffic road accidents].

PubMed

Smirenin, S A; Fetisov, V A; Grigoryan, V G; Gusarov, A A; Kucheryavets, Yu O

The disabling injuries inflicted during road traffic accidents (RTA) create a serious challenge for the public health services and are at the same time a major socio-economic problem in the majority of the countries throughout the world. The injuries to the lower extremities of the pedestrians make up the largest fraction of the total number of the non-lethal RTA injuries. Most of them are responsible for the considerable deterioration of the quality of life for the participants in the accidents during the subsequent period. The objective of the present study was to summarize the currently available results of experimental testing of the biomechanical models of the pedestrians' lower extremities in the framework of the program for the prevention of the road traffic accidents as proposed by the World Health Organization (WHO, 2004). The European Enhanced Safety Vehicle Committee (EEVC) has developed a series of crash-tests with the use of the models of the pedestrians' lower extremities simulating the vehicle bumper-pedestrian impact. The models are intended for the assessment of the risk of the tibia fractures and the injuries to the knee joint ligaments. The experts of EEVC proposed the biomechanical criteria for the acceleration of the knee and talocrural parts of the lower limbs as well as for the shear displacement of the knee and knee-bending angle. The engineering solution of this problem is based on numerous innovation proposals being implemented in the machine-building industry with the purpose of reducing the stiffness of structural elements of the bumper and other front components of a modern vehicle designed to protect the pedestrians from severe injuries that can be inflicted in the road traffic accidents. The activities of the public health authorities (in the first place, bureaus of forensic medical expertise and analogous facilities) have a direct bearing on the solution of the problem of control of road traffic injuries because they are possessed of comprehensive and reliable objective information about all forms of the damage to health associated with vehicle-pedestrian collisions and their victims' condition. It is concluded that making use of the experience and professional knowledge of forensic medical experts and automotive specialists could considerably contribute to the enhancement of safety of all the participants in the vehicular traffic.

Development of Electrical Capacitance Sensors for Accident Tolerant Fuel (ATF) Testing at the Transient Reactor Test (TREAT) Facility

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Maolong; Ryals, Matthew; Ali, Amir

2016-08-01

A variety of instruments are being developed and qualified to support the Accident Tolerant Fuels (ATF) program and future transient irradiations at the Transient Reactor Test (TREAT) facility at Idaho National Laboratory (INL). The University of New Mexico (UNM) is working with INL to develop capacitance-based void sensors for determining the timing of critical boiling phenomena in static capsule fuel testing and the volume-averaged void fraction in flow-boiling in-pile water loop fuel testing. The static capsule sensor developed at INL is a plate-type configuration, while UNM is utilizing a ring-type capacitance sensor. Each sensor design has been theoretically and experimentallymore » investigated at INL and UNM. Experiments are being performed at INL in an autoclave to investigate the performance of these sensors under representative Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) conditions in a static capsule. Experiments have been performed at UNM using air-water two-phase flow to determine the sensitivity and time response of the capacitance sensor under a flow boiling configuration. Initial measurements from the capacitance sensor have demonstrated the validity of the concept to enable real-time measurement of void fraction. The next steps include designing the cabling interface with the flow loop at UNM for Reactivity Initiated Accident (RIA) ATF testing at TREAT and further characterization of the measurement response for each sensor under varying conditions by experiments and modeling.« less

Human error analysis of commercial aviation accidents: application of the Human Factors Analysis and Classification system (HFACS).

PubMed

Wiegmann, D A; Shappell, S A

2001-11-01

The Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS) is a general human error framework originally developed and tested within the U.S. military as a tool for investigating and analyzing the human causes of aviation accidents. Based on Reason's (1990) model of latent and active failures, HFACS addresses human error at all levels of the system, including the condition of aircrew and organizational factors. The purpose of the present study was to assess the utility of the HFACS framework as an error analysis and classification tool outside the military. The HFACS framework was used to analyze human error data associated with aircrew-related commercial aviation accidents that occurred between January 1990 and December 1996 using database records maintained by the NTSB and the FAA. Investigators were able to reliably accommodate all the human causal factors associated with the commercial aviation accidents examined in this study using the HFACS system. In addition, the classification of data using HFACS highlighted several critical safety issues in need of intervention research. These results demonstrate that the HFACS framework can be a viable tool for use within the civil aviation arena. However, additional research is needed to examine its applicability to areas outside the flight deck, such as aircraft maintenance and air traffic control domains.

Safety assessment methodology in management of spent sealed sources.

PubMed

Mahmoud, Narmine Salah

2005-02-14

Environmental hazards can be caused from radioactive waste after their disposal. It was therefore important that safety assessment methodologies be developed and established to study and estimate the possible hazards, and institute certain safety methodologies that lead and prevent the evolution of these hazards. Spent sealed sources are specific type of radioactive waste. According to IAEA definition, spent sealed sources are unused sources because of activity decay, damage, misuse, loss, or theft. Accidental exposure of humans from spent sealed sources can occur at the moment they become spent and before their disposal. Because of that reason, safety assessment methodologies were tailored to suit the management of spent sealed sources. To provide understanding and confidence of this study, validation analysis was undertaken by considering the scenario of an accident that occurred in Egypt, June 2000 (the Meet-Halfa accident from an iridium-192 source). The text of this work includes consideration related to the safety assessment approaches of spent sealed sources which constitutes assessment context, processes leading an active source to be spent, accident scenarios, mathematical models for dose calculations, and radiological consequences and regulatory criteria. The text also includes a validation study, which was carried out by evaluating a theoretical scenario compared to the real scenario of Meet-Halfa accident depending on the clinical assessment of affected individuals.

Anesthesia patient risk: a quantitative approach to organizational factors and risk management options.

PubMed

Paté-Cornell, M E; Lakats, L M; Murphy, D M; Gaba, D M

1997-08-01

The risk of death or brain damage to anesthesia patients is relatively low, particularly for healthy patients in modern hospitals. When an accident does occur, its cause is usually an error made by the anesthesiologist, either in triggering the accident sequence, or failing to take timely corrective measures. This paper presents a pilot study which explores the feasibility of extending probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) of anesthesia accidents to assess the effects of human and management components on the patient risk. We develop first a classic PRA model for the patient risk per operation. We then link the probabilities of the different accident types to their root causes using a probabilistic analysis of the performance shaping factors. These factors are described here as the "state of the anesthesiologist" characterized both in terms of alertness and competence. We then analyze the effects of different management factors that affect the state of the anesthesiologist and we compute the risk reduction benefits of several risk management policies. Our data sources include the published version of the Australian Incident Monitoring Study as well as expert opinions. We conclude that patient risk could be reduced substantially by closer supervision of residents, the use of anesthesia simulators both in training and for periodic recertification, and regular medical examinations for all anesthesiologists.

M5 model tree based predictive modeling of road accidents on non-urban sections of highways in India.

PubMed

Singh, Gyanendra; Sachdeva, S N; Pal, Mahesh

2016-11-01

This work examines the application of M5 model tree and conventionally used fixed/random effect negative binomial (FENB/RENB) regression models for accident prediction on non-urban sections of highway in Haryana (India). Road accident data for a period of 2-6 years on different sections of 8 National and State Highways in Haryana was collected from police records. Data related to road geometry, traffic and road environment related variables was collected through field studies. Total two hundred and twenty two data points were gathered by dividing highways into sections with certain uniform geometric characteristics. For prediction of accident frequencies using fifteen input parameters, two modeling approaches: FENB/RENB regression and M5 model tree were used. Results suggest that both models perform comparably well in terms of correlation coefficient and root mean square error values. M5 model tree provides simple linear equations that are easy to interpret and provide better insight, indicating that this approach can effectively be used as an alternative to RENB approach if the sole purpose is to predict motor vehicle crashes. Sensitivity analysis using M5 model tree also suggests that its results reflect the physical conditions. Both models clearly indicate that to improve safety on Indian highways minor accesses to the highways need to be properly designed and controlled, the service roads to be made functional and dispersion of speeds is to be brought down. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Perspectives on multifield models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Banerjee, S.

1997-07-01

Multifield models for prediction of nuclear reactor thermalhydraulics are reviewed from the viewpoint of their structure and requirements for closure relationships. Their strengths and weaknesses are illustrated with examples, indicating that they are effective in predicting separated and distributed flow regimes, but have problems for flows with large oscillations. Needs for multifield models are also discussed in the context of reactor operations and accident simulations. The highest priorities for future developments appear to relate to closure relationships for three-dimensional multifield models with emphasis on those needed for calculations of phase separation and entrainment/de-entrainment in complex geometries.

Accident tolerant fuel cladding development: Promise, status, and challenges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Terrani, Kurt A.

2018-04-01

The motivation for transitioning away from zirconium-based fuel cladding in light water reactors to significantly more oxidation-resistant materials, thereby enhancing safety margins during severe accidents, is laid out. A review of the development status for three accident tolerant fuel cladding technologies, namely coated zirconium-based cladding, ferritic alumina-forming alloy cladding, and silicon carbide fiber-reinforced silicon carbide matrix composite cladding, is offered. Technical challenges and data gaps for each of these cladding technologies are highlighted. Full development towards commercial deployment of these technologies is identified as a high priority for the nuclear industry.

A Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS) Examination of Commercial Vessel Accidents

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-09-01

Naval Operations before the Congress on FY2013 Department of Navy posture. Heinrich , H . W. (1941). Industrial accident prevention : A scientific...Theory The core of the Domino Theory, developed by Herbert W. Heinrich who studied industrial safety in the early 1900s, is that accidents are a result...chain of events resulting in an accident . Heinrich likened the dominos to unsafe conditions or unsafe acts, where their subsequent removal prevents a